CHAPTER 7. SHIPMENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

7.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 7-1

7.2 INPUTS AND METHODOLOGY .................................................................................. 7-1

7.2.1 Commercial Air-cooled Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps ................................ 7-1

7.2.2 Water Source Heat Pumps ................................................................................... 7-4

7.3 BASE CASE SHIPMENTS ............................................................................................. 7-6

7.4 STANDARDS CASE SHIPMENTS ............................................................................... 7-8

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 7-10

LIST OF TABLES

Table 7.2.1 Historical Shipments of Three-Phase Air-Cooled Air Conditioners and 

Heat Pumps <65,000 Btu/h ............................................................................ 7-1

Table 7.2.2 Census Shipments of Air-Cooled Equipment <65,000 Btu/h (Including 

Both Single- and Three-Phase Equipment ..................................................... 7-2

Table 7.2.3 Year Over Year Percentage Growth of Small, Air-Cooled Air 

Conditioners and Heat Pumps from 2005-2014 (AHRI) ............................... 7-4

Table 7.2.4 Census Shipments of Water Source Heat Pumps .......................................... 7-5

Table 7.2.5 Total Shipments of Water-Source Heat Pumps by Equipment Class ............ 7-6

Table 7.3.1 Projected Shipments of Air-Cooled Three-Phase Equipment <65,000 

Btu/h (2011-2046) .......................................................................................... 7-7

Table 7.3.2 Projected WSHP Shipments by Equipment Class (2011-2045) .................... 7-8

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 7.2.1 Air-Cooled Equipment Shipping Trends 1999-2010 ..................................... 7-3

Figure 7.2.2 Water Source Heat Pump Shipment Trends 1990-2010 ................................ 7-6

7-i 
CHAPTER 7. SHIPMENTS

7.1 INTRODUCTION

Estimates of equipment shipments are a necessary input for calculating national energy 

savings (NES) and net present value (NPV), which are required to justify potential new or 

amended energy efficiency standards. Shipments also are a necessary input to the manufacturer 

impact analysis. This chapter describes DOE’s method and results of projecting annual 

shipments for small 3-phase air-cooled air conditioners and heat pumps as well as water source 

heat pumps. 

 The shipments models are part of the National Impact Analysis models and are prepared 

as Microsoft Excel spreadsheets that are accessible on the Internet 

(www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/). 

7.2 INPUTS AND METHODOLOGY

This section outlines the inputs and methodology used to develop the shipments model 

for small, 3-phase air-cooled air conditioning and heat pump equipment and water source heat 

pumps. 

7.2.1 Commercial Air-cooled Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

DOE estimated shipments of three-phase air-cooled equipment less than 65,000 Btu/h by 

equipment class for the year 1999 as part of the 2000 Screening Analysis for the Energy Policy 

Act (EPACT).1 Table 7.2.1 shows these data. DOE used U.S. Census data for similar equipment, 

including both single- and three-phase, from 1999 to 2010,2

 shown in Table 7.2.2, to extrapolate 

DOE’s 1999 estimated shipments data from 2000 to 2010. For each year from 2000 to 2010, 

DOE multiplied the 1999 shipments by the indexed value for the relevant year from the Census 

data. 

Table 7.2.1 Historical Shipments of Three-Phase Air-Cooled Air Conditioners and Heat 

Pumps <65,000 Btu/h 

Equipment Class 1999

Split System AC 91,598

Single Package AC 213,728

Split System HP 11,903

Single Package HP 27,773

Source: U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Screening Analysis for 

EPACT-Covered Commercial HVAC and Water-Heating Equipment. Volume 1 – Main Report. 2000. 

7-1 
Table 7.2.2 Census Shipments of Air-Cooled Equipment <65,000 Btu/h (Including Both 

Single- and Three-Phase Equipment

Split System AC Single Package AC Split System HP Single Package HP

Year Shipments

Index 

(to 

1999)

Shipments

Index 

(to 

1999)

Shipments

Index 

(to 

1999)

Shipments

Index 

(to 

1999)

1999 4,255,509 1.00 666,314 1.00 1,011,525 1 202,608 1.00

2000 4,181,538 0.98 686,448 1.03 1,041,287 1.03 204,324 1.01

2001 3,818,875 0.90 611,636 0.92 1,159,308 1.15 220,716 1.09

2002 4,033,357 0.95 553,728 0.83 1,159,507 1.15 180,521 0.89

2003 4,393,942 1.03 602,282 0.90 1,345,671 1.33 205,301 1.01

2004 4,988,640 1.17 614,937 0.92 1,634,521 1.62 214,886 1.06

2005 5,908,762 1.39 607,981 0.91 1,849,512 1.83 236,189 1.17

2006 4,456,324 1.05 575,916 0.86 1,873,980 1.85 232,762 1.15

2007 3,890,171 0.91 551,675 0.83 1,578,409 1.56 244,256 1.21

2008 3,534,140 0.83 453,055 0.68 1,530,443 1.51 197,024 0.97

2009 3,342,768 0.79 364,616 0.55 1,581,241 1.56 169,317 0.84

2010 3,235,467 0.76 330,965 0.50 1,571,177 1.55 172,816 0.85

Source: U.S.Census Bureau. Current Industrial Reports for Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, and Warm Air Heating 

Equipment, MA333M.

The census data showed a declining trend in shipments for Split System AC, Single 

Package AC and Single Package HP equipment classes and a slightly increasing trend for Split 

System HP, as shown in Figure 7.2.1. For the April 2014 Notice of Data Availability, DOE 

applied these trends to the single package and split system heat pumps and used a constant value 

for single package air conditioners based on the average value from 1999 to 2010.a

 (79 FR 

20114) However, in response to comments on the NODA, DOE reviewed the inputs available for 

its shipments projections. Because the Census data end in 2010, DOE cannot use that data to 

determine whether shipments continue to decline past 2010. Therefore, DOE reviewed AHRI’s 

monthly shipments data for the broader category of central air conditioners and heat pumps3

 to 

determine more recent trends. 

a DOE did not analyze split system AC in the NODA.

7-2 

 
Figure 7.2.1 Air-Cooled Equipment Shipping Trends 1999-2010 

Table 7.2.3 shows the annual percentage growth in shipments of small air conditioners 

and heat pumps from 2005 to 2014 as reported by AHRI. DOE found that the average annual 

growth rate from 2005 to 2010 was -12% for air conditioners and -4% for heat pumps. However, 

the average annual growth rate from 2010 to 2014 was 7% for air conditioners and 8% for heat 

pumps. These data indicate that the decline in shipments through 2010 has stopped and has in 

fact begun to reverse. Therefore, DOE used the AHRI reported growth rates from 2010 to 2011 

(10% for air conditioners and 1% for heat pumps) to scale its projected 2010 shipments to 2011. 

In order to project shipments into the future, DOE relied on Annual Energy Outlook 

(AEO) 2014 forecasts for commercial floor space from 2011 through 2040.4 DOE assumed that 

shipments of small commercial air conditioners and heat pumps would be related to the growth 

of commercial floor space. DOE used this projection, with an average annual growth rate of 1%, 

to project shipments for each of the four equipment classes through 2040. For years beyond 

2040, DOE also applied an average annual growth rate of 1%. 

y = -8738.8x + 2E+07

R2 = 0.7655

y = -185.13x + 399431

R2 = 0.0397

y = 720.37x - 1E+06

R2 = 0.5542

y = 1E+133x-38.79

R2 = 0.1709

 -

 50,000

 100,000

 150,000

 200,000

 250,000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

CUAC <65 single

CUHP <65 single

CUHP <65 split

CUAC <65 split

7-3 
Table 7.2.3 Year Over Year Percentage Growth of Small, Air-Cooled Air Conditioners 

and Heat Pumps from 2005-2014 (AHRI)

Year Central Air Conditioners Central Heat Pumps

2005 17% 13%

2006 -23% -1%

2007 -9% -10%

2008 -12% -2%

2009 -11% -12%

2010 -3% 6%

2011 10% 1%

2012 5% -4%

2013 7% 16%

2014 

(May) 6% 17% 

Source: AHRI. 2012. HVACR & Water Heating Industry Statistical Profile. See also AHRI Monthly Shipments 

December 2013 and May 2014 releases. 

7.2.2 Water Source Heat Pumps

DOE based its shipments analysis for water-source heat pumps on data from the U.S. 

Census. The U.S. Census published historical (1980, 1983-1994, 1997-2006, and 2008-2010) 

water-source heat pump shipment data.2 Table 7.2.4 exhibits the complete available time series. 

DOE analyzed data from the years 1990-2010 to establish a trend from which to project 

shipments beyond 2010. DOE used a linear trend, as shown in Figure 7.2.2. Because the Census 

data do not distinguish between equipment capacities, DOE used the shipments data by 

equipment class provided by AHRI in 1999, and published in the 2000 Screening Analysis for 

EPACT1, to distribute the total water-source heat pump shipments to individual equipment 

classes (Table 7.2.5). 

7-4 
Table 7.2.4 Census Shipments of Water Source Heat Pumps 

Year Product Code: 333415E181

1980 48,783

1981 N/A

1982 N/A

1983 69,280

1984 86,165

1985 119,164

1986 103,970

1987 142,033

1988 149,795

1989 157,080

1990 139,864

1991 111,746

1992 99,236

1993 105,159

1994 99,321

1995 N/A

1996 N/A

1997 112,052

1998 120,080

1999 120,545

2000 133,654

2001 130,351

2002 114,336

2003 123,974

2004 135,769

2005 141,410

2006 202,234

2007 N/A

2008 223,636

2009 180,101

2010 170,788

Source: U.S.Census Bureau. Current Industrial Reports for Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, and Warm Air Heating 

Equipment, MA333M.

7-5 
Figure 7.2.2 Water Source Heat Pump Shipment Trends 1990-2010 

Table 7.2.5 Total Shipments of Water-Source Heat Pumps by Equipment Class 

Equipment Class 1999 Percent

<17,000 Btu/h 41,000 31%

≥17,000 - <65,000 Btu/h 86,000 65%

≥65,000 -135,000 Btu/h 5,000 4%

Source: U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. 

Screening Analysis for EPACT-Covered Commercial HVAC and Water-Heating Equipment. 

Volume 1 – Main Report. 2000. 

7.3 BASE CASE SHIPMENTS

Table 7.3.1 and Table 7.3.2 show the resulting projected shipments for 3-phase, aircooled air conditioning and heat pump equipment and water source heat pumps, respectively. 

y = 4135.8x - 8E+06

R2 = 0.5483

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

7-6 
Table 7.3.1 Projected Shipments of Air-Cooled Three-Phase Equipment <65,000 Btu/h 

(2011-2048) 

Year Split System AC Single Package AC Split System HP Single Package HP

2011 76,270 116,264 18,669 23,921

2012 76,855 117,157 18,813 24,104

2013 77,333 117,884 18,930 24,254

2014 77,878 118,715 19,063 24,425

2015 78,536 119,719 19,224 24,632

2016 79,307 120,894 19,413 24,873

2017 80,210 122,271 19,634 25,157

2018 81,187 123,759 19,873 25,463

2019 82,199 125,302 20,121 25,780

2020 83,175 126,790 20,360 26,086

2021 84,127 128,242 20,593 26,385

2022 85,053 129,653 20,819 26,675

2023 85,945 131,013 21,038 26,955

2024 86,806 132,325 21,248 27,225

2025 87,651 133,613 21,455 27,490

2026 88,471 134,864 21,656 27,748

2027 89,269 136,081 21,851 27,998

2028 90,053 137,275 22,043 28,244

2029 90,830 138,460 22,234 28,487

2030 91,610 139,649 22,424 28,732

2031 92,414 140,874 22,621 28,984

2032 93,279 142,193 22,833 29,256

2033 94,195 143,590 23,057 29,543

2034 95,154 145,051 23,292 29,844

2035 96,170 146,600 23,541 30,162

2036 97,255 148,253 23,806 30,502

2037 98,357 149,933 24,076 30,848

2038 99,458 151,612 24,345 31,193

2039 100,541 153,262 24,610 31,533

2040 101,593 154,867 24,868 31,863

2041 102,603 156,405 25,115 32,180

2042 103,622 157,959 25,365 32,499

2043 104,652 159,529 25,617 32,822

2044 105,692 161,114 25,871 33,148

2045 106,742 162,715 26,128 33,478

2046 107,802 164,332 26,388 33,810

2047 108,874 N/A N/A N/A

2048 109,955 N/A N/A N/A

7-7 
Table 7.3.2 Projected WSHP Shipments by Equipment Class (2011-2045) 

Year Total <17,000 Btu/h ≥17,000 - <65,000 

Btu/h

≥65,000 -135,000 

Btu/h

2011 181,937 56,511 118,535 6,892

2012 186,073 57,795 121,229 7,048

2013 190,209 59,080 123,924 7,205

2014 194,344 60,365 126,618 7,362

2015 198,480 61,649 129,313 7,518

2016 202,616 62,934 132,007 7,675

2017 206,752 64,218 134,702 7,832

2018 210,887 65,503 137,396 7,988

2019 215,023 66,788 140,091 8,145

2020 219,159 68,072 142,785 8,301

2021 223,295 69,357 145,480 8,458

2022 227,430 70,641 148,174 8,615

2023 231,566 71,926 150,869 8,771

2024 235,702 73,210 153,563 8,928

2025 239,838 74,495 156,258 9,085

2026 243,974 75,780 158,952 9,241

2027 248,109 77,064 161,647 9,398

2028 252,245 78,349 164,342 9,555

2029 256,381 79,633 167,036 9,711

2030 260,517 80,918 169,731 9,868

2031 264,652 82,203 172,425 10,025

2032 268,788 83,487 175,120 10,181

2033 272,924 84,772 177,814 10,338

2034 277,060 86,056 180,509 10,495

2035 281,195 87,341 183,203 10,651

2036 285,331 88,626 185,898 10,808

2037 289,467 89,910 188,592 10,965

2038 293,603 91,195 191,287 11,121

2039 297,739 92,479 193,981 11,278

2040 301,874 93,764 196,676 11,435

2041 306,010 95,049 199,370 11,591

2042 310,146 96,333 202,065 11,748

2043 314,282 97,618 204,759 11,905

2044 318,417 98,902 207,454 12,061

2045 322,553 100,187 210,148 12,218

7.4 STANDARDS CASE SHIPMENTS

As equipment purchase price and repair costs increase with efficiency, DOE recognizes 

that higher first costs and repair costs can result in a drop in shipments. However, DOE had no 

basis for estimating the elasticity of shipments for small commercial air-cooled air conditioners 

and heat pumps less than 65,000 Btu/h or water-source heat pumps as a function of first costs, 

repair costs, or operating costs. In addition, because air-cooled air conditioners are likely the 

7-8 
lowest-cost option for air conditioning small office and retail applications, DOE believes it is 

unlikely that air-cooled shipments would change as a result of higher first costs and repair costs. 

In contrast, because water-source heat pumps are often installed for their higher efficiency as 

compared to air-cooled equipment, DOE believes it is unlikely that water-source shipments 

would change as a result of higher first costs and repair costs. Therefore, DOE presumed that the 

shipments projection does not change with higher standard levels. 

7-9 
REFERENCES

1

 U.S. Department of Energy – Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Screening 

Analysis for EPACT-Covered Commercial HVAC and Water-Heating Equipment. Volume 1 

– Main Report. 2000. <http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2006-STD0098-0015> 

2

 U.S.Census Bureau. Current Industrial Reports for Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, and Warm 

Air Heating Equipment, MA333M. 

<http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/cir/historical_data/ma333m/index.html> 

3

 AHRI. 2012. HVACR & Water Heating Industry Statistical Profile. See also AHRI Monthly 

Shipments: <http://www.ari.org/site/498/Resources/Statistics/Monthly-Shipments>; 

especially December 2013 release: 

<http://www.ari.org/App_Content/ahri/files/Statistics/Monthly%20Shipments/2013/Decemb

er2013.pdf>; May 2014 release: 

<http://www.ari.org/App_Content/ahri/files/Statistics/Monthly%20Shipments/2014/May201

4.pdf>. 

4

 U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014, 

April, 2014. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2014). 

<http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383%282014%29.pdf.> 

7-10