APPENDIX 10

- A. FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE MULTIPLIERS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10

- A.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ............................... 10

- A

- 1 10

- A.2 METHODOLOGY

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

- A

- 1 10

- A.3 FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE ENERGY MULTIPL IERS

................................ ............. 10

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- 3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10

- A.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs

................................ ..... 10

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- 3 Table 10

- A.3.1 Full Fuel Cycle Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 2013)

..................... 10

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- 3

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- iAPPENDIX 10

- A. FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE MULTIPLIERS

10

- A.1 INTRODUCTION
This appendix summarizes the methods used to calculate full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) energy savings expected to result from potential standards. The FFC measure includes point

- of

- use (site) energy, the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity, and the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and tr ansporting or distributing primary fuels. DOE’s traditional approach encompassed only site energy and the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. 1 Per DOE’s 2011 Statement of Policy for Adopting Full Fuel Cy cle Analyses , DOE now uses FFC measures of energy use and emissions in its energy conservation standards analyses. This appendix summarizes the methods used to incorporate the full

- fuel

- cycle impacts into the analysis.

This analysis uses several differen t terms to reference energy use. The physical sources of energy are the primary fuels such as coal, natural gas, liquid fuels, etc . Primary energy is equal to the heat content (Bt u) of the primary fuels used to provide an end

- use service. Site energy use i s defined as the energy consumed at the point

- of

- use in a building or industrial process. Where natural gas and petroleum fuels are consumed at the site (for example in a furnace), site energy is identical to primary energy, with both equal to the heat con tent of the primary fuel consumed. For electricity, site energy is measured in kWh. In this case the primary energy is equal to the quads of primary energy required to generate and deliver the site electricity. This primary energy is calculated by multiply ing the site kWh times the site

- to

- power plant energy use factor

, given in chapter 10. For the FFC analysis, the upstream energy use is defined as the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. FFC energy us e is the sum of primary plus upstream energy use.

Both primary fuels and electricity are used in upstream activities. The treatment of electricity in fuel cycle analysis must distinguish between electricity generated by fossil fuels and uranium, and ele ctricity generated from renewable fluxes (wind, solar and hydro). For the former, the upstream fuel cycle impacts are derived from the amount of fuel consumed at the power plant. For the latter, no fuel per se is used, so there is no upstream component.

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- A.2 METHODOLOGY
The mathematical approach is discussed in the paper A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

, 2 and details on the fuel production chain analysis are presented in the paper Projections of Full Fuel Cycle Energy and Emissions Metri cs

. 3 The text below provides a brief summary of the methods used to calculate FFC energy.

When all energy quantities are normalized to the same units, the FFC energy use can be represented as the product of the primary energy use and an FFC multiplier

. Th e FFC multiplier is defined mathematically as a function of a set of parameters representing the energy intensity 10

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- 1and material losses at each production stage. The se parameters depend only on physical data, so the calculations do not require any assumptio ns about prices or other economic data . While in general these p arameter values may vary by geographic region , for this analysis national averages are used.

In the notation below, the indices x and y are used to indicate fuel type, with x=c for coal,

x= g for natural gas, x=p for petroleum fuels, x=u for uranium and x=r for renewable fluxes. The fuel cycle parameters are:

• a x is the quantity of fuel x burned per unit of electricity output, on average, for grid electricity. The calculation of a x includes a factor to account for transmission and distribution system losses.

• b y is the amount of grid electricity used in production of fuel y, in MWh per physical unit of fuel y.

• c xy is the amount of fuel x consumed in producing one unit of fuel y.

• q x is the heat content of fuel x (MBtu/physical unit)

• z x (s) is the emissions intensity for fuel x (mass of pollutant s per physical unit of x)

The parameters are calculated as a function of time with an annual time step; hence, a time series of annual valu es is used to estimate the FFC energy and emissions savings in each year of the analysis period. Fossil fuel quantities are converted to energy units using the heat content factors q x . To convert electricity in kWh to primary energy units, on

- site electric ity consumption is multiplied by the site

- to

- power plant energy use factor . The site

- to

- power plant energy use factor is defined as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption by the electric power sector (in quadrillion Btu’ s) divided by the total electricity generation in each year.

The FFC multiplier is denoted μ (mu). A separate multiplier is calculated for each fuel used on site. A multiplier is also calculated for electricity reflecting the fuel mix used in its generation. The multipliers are dimensionless numbers that are applied to primary energy savings to obtain the FFC energy savings. The upstream component of the energy savings is proportional to (μ

- 1). The fuel type is denoted by a subscript on the multiplier μ.

For DOE’s appliance stan dards energy savings estimates, the fuel cycle analysis methodology is designed to make use of data and projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). Table 10

- A.2.1 provides a summary of the AEO data used as inputs to the different parameter calculations. The AEO does not provide all the information needed to estimate total energy use in the fu el production chain. Reference three describes the additional data sources used to complete the analysis. However, the time dependence in the FFC multipliers arises exclusively from variables taken from the AEO. The FFC analysis for CUAC and CU HP equipment used data from AEO 2013

. 4

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- 2Table 10

- A.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AE O Inputs Parameter Fuel AEO Table Variables
q x all Conversion Factors MMBtu per physical unit

a x all Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions Generation by fuel type Energy Consumption by Sector and Source Electric power sector energy consumption

b c , c nc , c pc coal Coal Production by Region and Type Production by coal type and sulfur content

b p , c n p , c p p petroleum Refining Industry Energy Consumption Refining only energy use Liquid Fuels Supply and Disposition Crude supply by source International Liquids Supply and Disposition Crude oil imports Oil and Gas Supply Crude oil domestic production

c nn natural gas Oil and Gas Supply US dry gas production Natural Gas Supply, Disposition and Prices Pipeline, lease and plant fuel

z x all Electricity Supply

, Disposition

, Prices and Emissions Power sector emissions

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- A.3 FULL

- FUEL

- CYCLE ENERGY MULTIPL IERS
FFC energy multipliers are presented in Table 10

- A.3.1 for selected years. For the analysis period beyond 2040 , the last year in the AEO 2013 projection, t he 2040 value was held constant

. The multiplier for electricity reflects the shares of vari ous primary fuels in total electricity generation over the forecast period.

Table 10

- A.3.1 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Multipliers (Based on AEO 2013) 2019 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Electricity 1.041 1.041 1.040 1.040 1.041 1.040 Natural Gas 1.101 1.101 1.100 1.098 1.099 1.100 Petroleum Fuels 1.139 1.140 1.148 1.158 1.166 1.168

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- A

- 3REFERENCES

1. United States

- Office of the Federal Register, Federal Register, Volume 76, Number 160, August 18, 2011 . UNT Digital Library. Washington D.C. .

2. Coughlin, K., A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

. Energy , 2012. 37(1): pp. 698

- 708

< http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211006803 >

3. Coughlin, K., Projections of Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics , 2013. Lawrence Berkele y National Laboratory. Report No. LBNL

- 6025E.

4. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlo ok 2013 with Projections to 2040 , 2013 . Washington, DC. < http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2013).pdf >

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