s

P23-199RV

U.S. Department of Health and U.S. Department of Commerce

Human Services Economics and Statistics Administration

National Institutes of Health U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

National Institute on Aging

Centenarians

in the United States 1990

Issued July 1999

By

Constance A. Krach,

Population Projections

Branch and

Victoria A. Velkoff,

International Programs

Center

Current Population Report

Special Studies
Acknowledgments

This profile was prepared by Constance A. Krach, Population

Projections Branch, and Victoria A. Velkoff, International Programs

Center, under the general direction of Signe I. Wetrogan, Assistant

Division Chief, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the Census. John F.

Long, Chief, Population Division, provided overall direction. Additional direction was provided by Gregory Spencer, Chief, Population

Projections Branch. Thanks are extended to Cynthia Taeuber, for her

earlier work on this project, and to Mary Jane Slagle for her assistance with the preparation of this report.

Funding for this report was provided by the Office of the Demography of Aging, Behavioral and Social Research Program, U.S. National

Institute on Aging, Richard Suzman, Director.

Sampling review was provided by Douglas B. Olson, Decennial

Statistical Studies Division.

The staff of the Administrative and Customer Services Division,

Walter C. Odom, Chief, performed planning, design, composition,

editorial review, and printing planning and procurement for publications, Internet products, and report forms. Helen M. Curtis provided

publication coordination and editing. Janet Sweeney prepared the

graphics and document design.

Notes About This Report

Findings for this report come primarily from the 1990 Census of

Population and Housing. All statistics are subject to sampling variability, as well as survey design flaws, respondent classification errors, and

data processing mistakes. The Census Bureau has taken steps to

minimize errors, and analytical statements have been tested and meet

statistical standards. Because of methodological differences, however,

use caution when comparing these statistics with data from other

sources.

For further information on the elderly population, contact:

Victoria Velkoff, Population Division, Bureau of the Census, Washington,

DC 20233 (Phone: 301-457-1371/ E-mail: vvelkoff@census.gov).
Centenarians

in the United States 1990

Issued July 1999

P23-199RV

Current Population Reports

Special Studies

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH

AND HUMAN SERVICES

National Institutes of Health

National Institute on Aging

U.S. Department of Commerce

William M. Daley,

Secretary

Robert L. Mallett,

Deputy Secretary

Economics and Statistics Administration

Robert J. Shapiro,

Under Secretary for

Economic Affairs

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Kenneth Prewitt,

Director
Suggested Citation

Krach, Constance A. and

Victoria A. Velkoff, U.S. Bureau of

the Census, Current Population

Reports, Series P23-199RV

Centenarians in the United States.

U.S. Government Printing Office,

Washington, DC, 1999.

ECONOMICS

AND STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION

Robert J. Shapiro,

Under Secretary

for Economic Affairs

ECONOMICS

AND STATISTICS

ADMINISTRATION

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Kenneth Prewitt,

Director

William G. Barron,

Deputy Director

Paula J. Schneider,

Principal Associate Director

for Programs

National Institutes of Health

National Institute on Aging

For sale by Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402.
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 iii

Contents

Centenarians in the United States

Text Figures

Why Study Centenarians? ..........................................1 1. Number of Projected Centenarians by Race,

Middle Series: 2000 to 2050 ............................3 U.S. Centenarians ......................................................1

2. Percent of Elderly With Some High Centenarians: One Hundred Years of Life Events .......4

School Education or More by Socioeconomic Characteristics of Centenarians .........5 Race and Age: 1990 .........................................5

Educational Attainment .............................................5 3. Percent of Elderly Currently Married

Marital Status ............................................................6 by Race and Age: 1990 ....................................6

Poverty Status ...........................................................7 4. Percent in Poverty by Age and Sex: 1989 .........7

Disability Status and Living Arrangements ................9 5. Percent in Poverty by Race and Age: 1989* ......8

Nativity Status ........................................................12 6. Percent With No Self-Care or Mobility

Geographical Distribution of U.S. Centenarians .......13 Limitations by Race and Age: 1990 ..................9

7. Percent Living Alone International Comparisons ......................................14

by Race and Age: 1990 ..................................10 Data Quality Issues When Measuring

8. Percent Living in Nursing Homes Populations at Extreme Ages ..............................14

by Race and Age: 1990 ..................................11 Problems With Past Census Counts .........................15

9. Percent Foreign Born How Many Centenarians Were There in 1990? .........16 by Race and Age: 1990 ..................................12

Data Sources ...........................................................17 10. Ten States With the Highest Percentage

References ..............................................................17 of the Total U.S. Centenarian

Text Tables Population: 1990............................................13

11. Ten States With the Highest Percentage

1. Population Aged 100 and Over in of Total State Population Aged 100

1990 by Sex, Age, Race, or Over: 1990 ...............................................13

and Hispanic Origin..........................................2 12. Counts and Preferred Estimates

2. Projected Number of Centenarians of Centenarians: 1950-1990...........................15

in the United States by Sex, Race, and

Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 .........................2

3. Cohort Analysis for 1990 Centenarians

Aged 100 to 104: Born 1885 to 1890 ..............3
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 1

Centenarians

in the United States

Average life expectancy in the

United States has increased dramatically over the last century,

from just 49 years at the turn of

the century to just over 76 years in

1996, the latest year for which

such data are available (National

Center for Health Statistics, 1997;

1998). While earlier gains in life

expectancy may be attributed to

reductions in infant mortality and

the control of infectious diseases,

reductions in mortality at the oldest ages are believed to be the major factor responsible for increased

life expectancy in recent decades

(Vaupel and Jeune, 1995). This

has led to an increasing number of

people living to extreme old ages,

including those reaching age 100

years or above.

This report focuses on the

characteristics of those people

identified as centenarians in the

1990 Census of Population and

Housing for the United States.

While its purpose is not to provide

the definitive answer to the number of people aged 100 or above

in 1990, this report does give a

range of estimates. In 1990, there

were 37,306 people identified as

centenarians in the census which

is most likely an overstatement of

the “true” number of centenarians.

Estimates of the number of centenarians in the United States by the

Census Bureau and the Social Security Administration (SSA) range

from around 28,000 in 1990 to

29,131 at the end of 1991, respectively (Das Gupta, 1999;

Kestenbaum, 1998). The uncertainty of the numbers is discussed

in the section on data quality

which addresses these issues and

their effects on both the enumeration and estimation of centenarians in 1990. First, however, we

shall examine the characteristics

of individuals identified as being

aged 100 or above in the 1990

census.

Why Study

Centenarians?

Centenarians represent a relatively small proportion of the total

U.S. population, with about one

out of every 10,000 Americans being aged 100 years or older in

1990. Yet, this segment of the

population surviving to extreme

old age draws the attention of researchers and the general public

alike, as we try to understand and

learn from the experience of individuals who beat the odds of environmental and biological obstacles

to which most humans fall prey.

Observation of centenarians can

aid those examining the human

life span, mortality at the oldest

ages, the issue of racial crossover

in mortality at older ages1, and the

trajectory of mortality (Coale and

Kisker, 1986, 1990; Elo and

Preston, 1994; Horiuchi and

Wilmoth, 1998; Kestenbaum,

1998; Manton and Singer, 1994;

Wilmoth, Skytthe, Friou, and Jeune,

1996). Increased longevity also

1 There is debate over the issue of changes

in mortality patterns by race at older ages (Coale

and Kisker, 1986, 1990; Elo and Preston, 1994;

Manton, Stallard, and Vaupel, 1981; Otten,

Teutsch, Williamson, and Marks, 1990.) There is

some evidence that at older ages (e.g., mid- to

late seventies or early eighties), there exists a

crossover to lower mortality among Blacks, a

shift from the mortality pattern of lower mortality

among Whites. Many attribute this crossover to a

“survival of the fittest” argument, while others

argue that this apparent phenomenon is actually

due to age misreporting and other forms of error

and bias in death rates for Blacks at these ages.

has social and economic implications for society as a whole, as we

struggle to find the best way to

support a growing elderly population. However, we must first determine how many people actually

survive to these extreme old ages.

U.S. Centenarians

In 1990, of the 31 million

people who were aged 65 and over,

37,306 were classified as being centenarians. This figure most likely

exceeds the true number of centenarians in 1990, as we will discuss

extensively in the later section on

data quality. However, comparisons

of various sociodemographic characteristics with those of other groups

above age 65 reveal that the traits

of this group follow observed age

trends. As such, the characteristics

for centenarians reported in the

1990 census reasonably capture the

experiences and characteristics of

the true population aged 100 or

above.

As with the elderly population

as a whole, women outnumber

men in the 100 and above age

group. In 1990, four in five centenarians were women (see Table 1).

This disproportionate share of

women aged 100 and over occurs

because death rates are higher for

men than women at virtually every

age. Although both women and

men have experienced dramatic

improvements in mortality at the

oldest ages over the last few decades, gains for males have typically been smaller than those for

females (Vaupel, 1997). The majority of centenarians in 1990 were

also non-Hispanic White, accounting for 78 percent of those aged
2 P23-199 U.S. Census Bureau

100 or older. At about 16 percent, tion in the future, based on alter- expectancy, mirroring the 10 year

Blacks made up the second largest native assumptions for fertility, life mortality improvements seen from

group of centenarians. This com- expectancy, and net immigration. 1980 to 1990, with some addipares with 76 percent and 12 per- For the elderly population, projec- tional impact of AIDS included.

cent, respectively, of the total tions are most sensitive to the dif- The low series assumes that curpopulation. ferences in assumptions made rent mortality rates will not

Table 2 presents three series about life expectancy. Middle se- change, while the high life-expectof projections of the size and com- ries life-expectancy assumptions ancy assumption, or rapid imposition of the centenarian popula- reflect a slow improvement in life provement series, replicates the

Table 1.

Population Aged 100 and Over in 1990 by Sex, Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin

American Asian

Indian, and

Eskimo Pacific

Total White Black and Aleut Islander Other Hispanic*

 Non-Hispanic

All

Other

White Races

Both sexes .....................

100 to 104 years ........

105 years and over ....

Males .............................

100 to 104 years ........

105 years and over ....

Females .........................

100 to 104 years ........

105 years and over ....

37,306

30,947

6,359

7,901

5,944

1,957

29,405

25,003

4,402

30,105

25,881

4,224

5,799

4,616

1,183

24,306

21,265

3,041

5,874

4,208

1,666

1,587

1,025

562

4,287

3,183

1,104

264

180

84

99

68

31

165

112

53

492

357

135

175

122

53

317

235

82

571

321

250

241

113

128

330

208

122

1,642

1,051

591

581

317

264

1,061

734

327

29,130

25,186

3,944

5,490

4,421

1,069

23,640

20,765

2,875

6,534

4,710

1,824

1,830

1,206

624

4,704

3,504

1,200

*Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 CP-1-1, 1990 Census of Population- General Population Characteristics, United States, U.S. Government Printing

Office, Washington, DC, 1992.

Table 2.

Projected Number of Centenarians in the United States by

Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 20501

Percent Non-Hispanic

American

Total Total Total Indian, Asian and

(lowest (middle (highest Percent Percent Percent

Year series)2 series) series)3 male4 female Hispanic5

Eskimo,

White Black and Aleut

Pacific

Islander

2000 69,000 72,000 81,000 16.7 83.3 5.6 77.8 12.5 1.4 2.8

2010 106,000 131,000 214,000 15.3 84.7 7.6 72.5 14.5 2.3 2.3

2020 135,000 214,000 515,000 15.4 84.6 9.8 69.2 13.1 2.8 4.7

2030 159,000 324,000 1,074,000 16.4 83.6 14.5 62.3 12.7 2.8 8.0

2040 174,000 447,000 1,902,000 17.4 82.8 17.7 56.2 13.2 2.7 10.5

2050 265,000 834,000 4,218,000 18.0 82.0 19.2 55.4 12.7 2.2 10.6

1 Projections are based on a July 1, 1994 estimate of the resident population, which is based on the enumerated 1990 census population modified by

age and race. As a result of these modifications, the April 1, 1990 population of centenarians is assumed to be 36,000. For a detailed description of the age

modification procedures, see publication CPH-L-74, Age, Sex, and Hispanic Origin Information from the 1990 Census: A Comparison of Census Results with

Results Where Age and Race have been Modified.

2 Assumes low fertility, low life expectancy, and low net migration in comparison to the middle series values.

3 Assumes high fertility, high life expectancy, and high net migration in comparison to the middle series values.

4 Percentage values are based on middle series projections.

5 Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.

Source: Day, J. C., 1996, Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050, U.S. Bureau of the Census,

Current Population Reports, P25-1130, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 3

mortality patterns found between

1970 and 1980, thus ignoring the

estimated impact of AIDS. According to the middle series projections, by the middle of the next

century, the United States could

have almost 850,000 centenarians.

And, if we see even more rapid increases in life expectancy, as assumed in the highest series, the

future number of centenarians

could be substantially higher than

850,000.

As with other age groups of

the elderly population, we expect

that centenarians will be a more

diverse group in the future. As

seen in Table 2, by 2050, non-Hispanic Whites may account for only

about 55 percent of the total centenarian population, with the Hispanic and Asian and Pacific Islander populations accounting for

a greater share of the population

aged 100 years and above.

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 1.

Number of Projected Centenarians by 

Race, Middle Series: 2000 to 2050

Source: Day, J. C., 1996, Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and 

Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, P25-1130, 

U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.

72,000

131,000

214,000

324,000

447,000

834,000

Black and other

White

Table 3.

Cohort Analysis for 1990 Centenarians

Aged 100 to 104: Born 1885 to 1890

 Population (thousands)

Age

Year Range Total Male Female

Ratio of

Males to

females

1890 ...........

1900 ...........

1910 ...........

1920 ...........

1930 ...........

1940 ...........

1950 ...........

1960 ...........

1970 ...........

1980 ...........

1990 ...........

under 5

10 to 14

20 to 24

30 to 34

40 to 44

50 to 54

60 to 64

70 to 74

80 to 84

90 to 94

100 to 104

7,635

8,086

9,117

8,095

8,052

7,281

6,103

4,773

2,312

557

31

3,885

4,086

4,613

4,133

4,166

3,762

3,058

2,197

883

156

6

3,750

4,000

4,504

3,962

3,886

3,519

3,045

2,577

1,429

401

25

103.6

102.2

102.4

104.3

107.2

106.9

100.4

85.3

61.8

38.9

24.0

Source: 1890 data from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United StatesColonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial Edition, Part I, Washington, DC, 1975; 1900 to 1950 data from

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P25- 311, Washington, DC, July 2, 1965;

1960 data from U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, P25-519; 1970 data from U.S.

Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, P25-917; 1980 to 1990 data from U.S. Bureau of the

Census, Current Population Reports, P25-1095.
4 P23-199 U.S. Census Bureau

Centenarians:

One Hundred Years of

Life Events

The majority of centenarians living in

the United States in 1990 were part of the

1885-1890 birth cohort in which over 7 million babies were born. People of this cohort

were in their late 20s during World War I and

the 1918 flu epidemic; in their 40s during

the Great Depression of the 1930s; and, in

their 50s during World War II. In the late

1950s, they joined the 65-plus group, with

approximately 5 million people being aged

65 to 69 in 1955. About one-half of these

survived to witness the first moon landing

in 1969, when they were in their late 70s

and early 80s. It is important to note that

tracing the survival of this cohort over a period of 100 years is subject to the effects of

migration, as well as differences in census

procedures and accuracy. For example, such

factors are likely to explain why there were

over 9 million people aged 20 to 24 in

1910, while there were only just over 8 million aged 10 to 14 in the prior decade.

The median age at first marriage for

women in this cohort was between 21 and

22. Ever-married women of this cohort had

an average of three children, with a median

age at first birth of 23. As of 1940, about

17 percent of women in the 1885 to 1890

birth cohort, then aged 50 to 54 years, remained childless, a lower proportion than

that found among subsequent cohorts until

the advent of the Baby Boom at mid-century.

Approximately one-third of ever-married

women had one or two births, over half had

three or more, and more than one-quarter

bore five or more children (U.S. Bureau of

the Census, 1975). In comparison, about

one-eighth of ever-married women born between 1950 and 1954, aged 40 to 44 in

1994, remained childless as of 1994. Approximately 56 percent of these had one or

two children, and only about 32 percent had

three or more children ever born (Bachu,

1995).2

2 It is important to note that these women may not

have completed their fertility experience, given trends

toward delayed childbearing.

The Historical Experience of 1990 Centenarians:

A Timeline of Events

Ages 10 to 14 1900

at the

turn of the

century

1914 Middle to late

20s at the start

of World War I

Ages 28 to 33

during the 1918

flu epidemic

1918

1929 Early 40s at

the start of the

great depression

Early 50s

at the start of

World War II

1939

1950 Early 60s at

the start of the

Korean War

Early 70s when

Hawaii becomes

the 50th state

1959

1964 Late 70s at the

start of the

Vietnam War

Ages 79 to 84

at the first

moon landing

1969

1977 Late 80s when space

shuttle Enterprise takes

its first flight

Middle to late 90s

when the AIDS virus

discovered

1984

1990
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 5

Socioeconomic

Characteristics of

Centenarians

Characteristics presented here

are based on census sample data

and are representative of the

37,306 individuals classified as centenarians in the 1990 Census. As

noted earlier, the inclusion in this

sample of individuals who might

not truly have been 100 years or

older in 1990 may skew findings for

the various socioeconomic characteristics explored. For example, if

racial minorities are indeed more

prone to age misreporting, as suggested by some researchers (Elo and

Preston, 1994; Preston et al., 1998),

the number of centenarians living

below poverty may be inflated by

an overcount of minority individuals

in the sample, who tend to exhibit

higher levels of poverty on average.

To address this issue, race was entered into the analysis of each variable examined and relevant results

are presented where appropriate.

Educational Attainment

Centenarians in 1990 reported

significantly lower levels of education compared with other cohorts of

the elderly population. This is not

unexpected given the trend towards

increasing levels of education over

time. As seen in Figure 2, about

four in five people aged 65 to 69 in

1990 had completed some high

school or more, compared with just

half of the centenarian group. These

findings are consistent across racial

groups, except for the Asian and Pacific Islander population. For this

group, there is a decline in education with age up to age 100, but reported centenarians then demonstrate higher levels compared with

those aged 95 to 99 years.*

* While this comparison is true for the

sampled data, the sample size is too small to

infer that the results would necessarily hold true

for the overall population and may be due to

sampling variability, estimation, or other

statistical techniques.

Figure 2.

Percent of Elderly With Some High School Education 

or More by Race and Age: 1990

Source: Special tabulations from 1990 Decennial Census sample files.

0 20 40 60 80

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

Percent with high school education or more

Black

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

Asian and Pacific Islander

Other

Age

group

All Races

White

100
6 P23-199 U.S. Census Bureau

Marital Status

Not surprisingly, the majority

of centenarians were widowed in

1990 (79 percent). Eighty-four percent of centenarian women were

widowed, but only 58 percent of

the men were. Even at these advanced ages, nearly 1 in 4 men

were currently married, compared

with only 1 in 25 women.

Controlling for race reveals that

while a greater percentage of

Whites are currently married

among the “younger” elderly age

groups, the trend is altered at the

oldest-old ages, with Blacks, Asian

Pacific Islanders, and Others having a higher percentage of centenarians being currently married

compared with Whites (Figure 3).

Observed racial differences in

marital status were not found to

be statistically significant.*

However, these observed racial differences in marital status at the

oldest ages may provide some evidence for the presence of “false”

centenarians among minority

groups. Their presence in the

numbers classified as centenarians

may therefore inflate the numbers

in the “currently married” category

among the 100 and over population as a whole.

* While this comparison is true for the

sampled data, the sample size is too small to

infer that the results would necessarily hold true

for the overall population and may be due to

sampling variability, estimation, or other

statistical techniques.

Figure 3.

Percent of Elderly Currently Married 

by Race and Age: 1990

Source: Special tabulations from 1990 Decennial Census sample files.

0 20 40 60 80

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

Percent currently married

Black

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

Asian and Pacific Islander

Other

Age

group

All Races

White
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 7

Poverty Status

Figure 4 indicates the percent

living in poverty for those aged 65

and older among those for whom

poverty status was ascertained (information on poverty status was

determined for 94.8 percent of the

population aged 65 and over; for

example, those living in institutions such as nursing homes did

not have their status determined).

The likelihood of living in poverty

appears to increase with age for

both men and women, with

women more likely to be living below the poverty level at all ages.*

Examination of poverty status by

race reveals that Whites are less

likely to live in poverty compared

with other racial groups at almost

all ages, with the exception of

Asian and Pacific Islanders, who

* While this comparison is true for the

sampled data, the sample size is too small to

infer that the results would necessarily hold true

for the overall population and may be due to

sampling variability, estimation, or other

statistical techniques.

have levels significantly lower than Islanders living alone compared

that for Whites from ages 75 to 89. with elderly Whites at all ages, as

Differences found above age 90 well as their relatively high educaare not significant (Figure 5). This tion levels compared with other rafinding may be due to a lower per- cial minority groups.

centage of Asian and Pacific

65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+

Figure 4.

Percent in Poverty by Age and Sex: 1989

Source: Special tabulations from 1990 Census sample files.

Female

Male

(Percent living below poverty)

Age group

11.7

6.9

14.5

7.3

18.0

9.3

20.7

11.7

22.2

14.1

22.9

14.7

22.6

15.4

25.9

21.1
8 P23-199 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 5.

Percent in Poverty by Race and Age: 1989*

*Figures show the percent in each group identified as being in poverty among those for whom 

poverty status was ascertained.

Source: Special tabulations from 1990 Decennial Census sample files.

0 10 20 30 40 50

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

Percent living below poverty

Black

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

Asian and Pacific Islander

Other

Age

group

All Races

White
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 9

Disability Status and

Living Arrangements

The long form of the 1990

Census included questions regarding mobility and self-care limitations. Examination of these factors shows that the percent of elderly people having no such limitations decreases with age. Racial

comparisons in Figure 6 reveal

that while Whites appear to have

lower disability levels at the

younger-old ages, this was not the

case among those aged 80 and

above.

100

Figure 6.

Percent With No Self-Care or Mobility Limitations 

by Race and Age: 1990

Source: Special tabulations from 1990 Decennial Census sample files.

0 20 40 60 80

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

Percent with no disability limitations

Black

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

Asian and Pacific Islander

Other

Age

group

All Races

White
10 P23-199 U.S. Census Bureau

The living arrangements of th

elderly may be influenced by their

disability status and need for assistance. Consistent with disability trends, centenarians in all racia

categories except American Indian

Eskimo, and Aleut were found to

be less likely to be living alone

compared with their younger coun

terparts (Figure 7). The higher per

cent of American Indians found to

be living alone was not found to

be statistically significant. In relation to this finding, the likelihood

of living in a nursing home was

found to increase with age for all

races, with the exception of the

American Indian and Other race

categories (Figure 8).* Findings fo

disability and living arrangements

for these racial minorities are mos

likely due to data quality issues,

wherein individuals in these

groups are not truly aged 100

years or older.

* While this comparison is true for the

sampled data, the sample size is too small to

infer that the results would necessarily hold true

for the overall population and may be due to

sampling variability, estimation, or other

statistical techniques.

e

l

,

-

-

r

t

Figure 7.

Percent Living Alone by Race and Age: 1990

Source: Special tabulations from 1990 Decennial Census sample files.

0 10 20 30 40 50

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

Percent living alone

Black

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

Asian and Pacific Islander

Other

Age

group

All Races

White
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 11

Figure 8.

Percent Living in Nursing Homes 

by Race and Age: 1990

Source: Special tabulations from 1990 Decennial Census sample files.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

Percent living in nursing home

Black

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

Asian and Pacific Islander

Other

Age

group

All Races

White
12 P23-199 U.S. Census Bureau

Nativity Status

While most centenarians in the

1990 Census were born in the

United States, about 17 percent

were born in a foreign country.

This age group had a higher proportion foreign born than is the

case among the younger elderly,

those aged 65 to 89 years. Differences from those aged 90 to 99

years were not statistically significant. For example, only 8 percent

of those aged 65 to 69 were born

in a foreign country. The majority

of foreign-born centenarians (83

percent) entered the U.S. before

1950, probably around 1910 when

they were teens or in their early

20s. Most of them (82 percent)

became naturalized citizens.

Among centenarians, the percent

foreign born is highest for Asian

and Pacific Islanders and those in

the Other race category, who are

mostly of Hispanic origin (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1991). Whites

have a higher level of foreign born

compared with Blacks (Figure 9).

Investigation into the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of reported centenarians

in 1990 reveals that, in general,

those aged 100 or older tend to

follow the patterns exhibited by

subsequent cohorts of elderly individuals. As would be expected,

centenarians are more likely to be

disabled and impoverished, to be

widowed, and to have lower educational attainment when compared with younger elderly. Although it is likely that there are

“false” centenarians among the

37,306 classified as such in 1990,

for the most part, this group does

fit the patterns that would be expected given age-related social

and economic characteristics.

Figure 9.

Percent Foreign Born by Race and Age: 1990

Source: Special tabulations from 1990 Decennial Census sample files.

0 20 40 60 80 100

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

Percent foreign born

Black

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

Asian and Pacific Islander

Other

Age

group

All Races

White
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 13

Geographical Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, IlliDistribution of U.S. nois, Ohio, New Jersey, MassachuCentenarians setts, and Michigan. These ten

states accounted for slightly over

The most populous states in half of the total population aged

the United States also tend to be 100 and over (Figure 10).

those with the greatest number of Figure 11 shows that the top

centenarians. In 1990, the ten ten states with the greatest proporstates with the highest percentage tion of their own population comof the total U.S. centenarian popu- prised of centenarians differed

lation were California, New York, from those with the greatest

number, with the exception of

Massachusetts.3 For example, California had the greatest number of

centenarians (3,774), accounting

for 10 percent of the total U.S.

population aged 100 and over,

while it ranked 37th among the

states in the proportion of its

population aged 100 and over.

The two states with the highest

percentage of their population

comprised of centenarians were

Iowa, with 724 centenarians, and

South Dakota, with 178 centenarians, making up 0.026 percent of

their populations. The ten states

with the highest percentage of

their own populations aged 100

and over accounted for only about

14.5 percent of the total U.S. centenarian population. In 1990,

Alaska had both the lowest number and smallest proportion of its

population aged 100 or above (18

and .003 percent, respectively).

Surprisingly, Florida, the state with

the highest share of those aged 65

or older, ranked 24th in proportion

of state population aged 100 and

over. It has been suggested that

while Florida may receive a substantial influx of the relatively

healthier “young old”, the less

healthier “older old” may return to

their origin state to be cared for by

family (Rogers, 1990; U.S. Bureau

of the Census, 1996).

3 The states in Figure 11 may be

differentially affected by the data reliability

issues that are discussed on page 14 under the

section on Data Quality Issues.

Michigan

Massachusetts

New Jersey

Ohio

Illinois

Pennsylvania

Texas

Florida

New York

California

Figure 10.

Ten States With the Highest Percentage of the 

Total U.S. Centenarian Population: 19901

1These ten states account for 19,939 (53 percent) of the total U.S. centenarian population as enumerated 

in the 1990 Census.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of Population, Summary Tape File 1.

10.1%

8.4%

5.6%

5.6%

5.2%

4.8%

4.2%

3.3%

3.3%

3.0%

Montana

Minnesota

Massachusetts

Connecticut

Kansas

Mississippi

Nebraska

District of Columbia

South Dakota

Iowa

Figure 11.

Ten States With the Highest Percentage of Total State

Population Aged 100 or Over: 19901

1Ten states with the highest percentage of their own population aged 100 or over compared to other U.S. 

states account for only 5,423 (14.5%) of U.S. centenarians enumerated in the 1990 Decennial Census.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of Population, Summary Tape File 1.

.0261%

.0256%

.0231%

.0231%

.0225%

.0206%

.0205%

.0202%

.0200%

.0199%
14 P23-199 U.S. Census Bureau

International for 1970 through 1980 are some- older ages. Manton and Vaupel

Comparisons what consistent with this doubling (1995) found that life expectancies

trend. The annual rates of growth at age 80 were significantly higher

Information about the number for the centenarian populations in in the United States than in Enof centenarians living in other the United States and other devel- gland, France, Japan, and Sweden.

countries of the world is limited oped countries have been similar.

mainly to developed countries that From 1980 to 1990, the growth Data Quality Issues

are more likely to have a popula- rate for American centenarians was When Measuring tion registration system or census. around 9 percent per year based Populations at Kannisto (1990) estimated the on a revised 1980 estimate of

number of centenarians in several Extreme Ages 15,000 and the 1990 census count

developed countries based on the Generating a count of people of 37,306. Using the revised estiassumption that the ratio of mate of 28,000 for 1990 (to be at older ages is hounded by probpeople aged 100 and over to the lems that may result in imperfect presented in the section on data

population aged 75 and over ob- estimates of the very old popula- quality below) yields an annual

served in some countries is the tion. Data reliability problems es- growth rate of over 6 percent. Finsame for all countries. He calcu- calate with age, with the most seri- land and Japan had slightly higher

lated that in 1985, there were only ous problems found among re- annual growth rates (11 percent

30,000 centenarians worldwide, ported ages of 95 to 99 and 100 and 12 percent respectively for the

with about 5,000 in the United and over (Kestenbaum, 1992). same period). Sweden’s centenarStates. This number is obviously Lack of birth records, which makes ian population grew slower, at only

inconsistent with the number of 6 percent per year. Note that in all it difficult to confirm or disconfirm

people aged 100 and above enu- a reported age, and low literacy cases, these are high growth rates

merated in the 1990 Census of levels have both been identified as compared with other age groups.

Population, an issue addressed in However, their meaning should not contributing to the lack of data

the later section on data quality. quality at the highest ages, espe- be overstated: the numbers are

Some aspects of the 100-plus cially for Blacks (Bowerman, 1939; small and so any growth appears

populations in the United States Elo and Preston, 1994; Elo, large.

and other countries are similar. For Preston, Rosenwaike, Hill and Centenarians do make up a

example, there were 27 men for Cheney, 1996). Functional and/or high proportion of the U.S. populaevery 100 women aged 100 and cognitive disability make it impos- tion aged 85 and above compared

over in the United States in 1990. with other countries with good sible for some elderly to report

Both Sweden and Japan have simi- their own age, making it necessary quality data. For example, there

lar sex ratios (27 and 25 respec- to rely on the knowledge of others. are approximately 120 centenartively). Finland’s sex ratio is some- In addition, there are individuals ians per 10,000 persons aged 85

what lower, with only 21 men per who deliberately misreport their and over in the United States. The

100 women aged 100 and over. age for a variety of reasons, as comparable number of centenarHistorical analysis of 11 devel- well as those who mistakenly re- ians per 10,000 population aged

oped countries, not including the port an incorrect age in surveys. 85 and over in Finland was about

U.S., indicate significant increases The census, like any data collec- 30; in Japan, about 29; and in Swein the number of people reaching tion system that involves measur- den, about 41. It does not appear

age 100 between 1885 and 1950, ing the elderly population, can po- that differences in data quality

with this population doubling each tentially be affected by all of these alone could account for such sigdecade since 1950. Researchers problems. Examination of the nificant differences in the proporattribute about two-thirds of these count of centenarians in past cen- tion of the extreme aged between

increases to improved survival suses may shed some light on the the United States and other nafrom ages 80 to 100 (Jeune and problems encountered in 1990. tions. A higher proportion of

Vaupel, 1995). Revised estimates centenarians is not the only eviof the U.S. centenarian populations dence supporting the comparative

advantage of the U.S. in survival at
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 15

Problems With Past tency between machine-coded and

Census Counts written age entries in order to assign an age to each individual. Census counts prior to 1990 Thirty-six of these cases were re- are marked by large error for those moved from the study because aged 100 and older. Figure 12 indi- their forms were either incom- cates the count of centenarians for pletely photocopied or did not each of the decennial censuses contain any age information. since 1950, as well as figures be- Of the 585 cases in the census lieved to more accurately reflect file, only 46 percent (271) were the true number of centenarians. identified as centenarians accordThe gross overstatement of cente- ing to their original forms. Appli- narians in 1970, the first primarily cation of this percentage to the self-enumerated census, is attrib- count of 32,194 in the census uted mainly to a misunderstanding yields an estimate of about on the part of some respondents 15,000, a number that is similar to about properly completing the cen- that found in the Social Security sus form (Siegel and Passel, 1976). Administration (SSA) files in 1980. The count of 32,194 centenar- It should be noted that the relaians in 1980 is believed to contain tionship between the census count only about 15,000 true centenar- and the number of centenarians

ians (Spencer, 1986). This esti- found on the original forms dete- mate was derived from an analysis riorates at higher ages. That is, the of a 10 percent random sample number aged 100 and over in the (621 cases) of centenarians from census sample is about twice the the Census Sample Detail File, rep- number found on the original resenting 2 percent of the total forms, while for those aged 105 centenarian population. The origi- and over, the sample contains nal long form for each of these about 12 times the number found

cases was examined for consis- on the original forms.

The overcount of centenarians

in 1980 resulted primarily from

two sources of error (Spencer,

1987). First, mistakes were made

by some respondents in completing the age portion of the census

questionnaire. Age could be ascertained in three ways from the census form: written age, written year

of birth, and coded year of birth

(i.e., filling in circles). Computer

technology makes the coded year

of birth the optimal way to assign

age, but this is also the method

most prone to mistakes on the

part of respondents. For example,

there were cases where entire

families were coded as being born

in the 19th century, thus making

them all over age 100. Editing

procedures did not allow anyone

over the age of 112, so most of

these misreported centenarians

were discarded. Only children under age 13 coded in the wrong

century (i.e., coded as aged 100 to

112) were falsely identified as centenarians.

The second source of error involved the allocation of unreasonable ages to incomplete or inconsistent records during editing procedures. For incomplete records,

householders filling out the census

questionnaire may have mistakenly begun giving responses for a

nonexistent person. Instead of deleting these incomplete records,

the missing data for that record

would be allocated based on the

information that was provided. In

many cases, these people were assigned the relationship of parent

or other relative. Depending on

the age of the householder, it was

possible for these records to be assigned an unreasonably old age.

Inconsistent records occurred

when the ages of household members could not logically be true

given the identified relationship

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Figure 12.

Counts and Preferred Estimates of 

Centenarians: 1950-1990

Source: Enumerated figures and preferred estimates for 1950 through 1970: Seigel and Passel, 1976. Enumerated 

1980 figure: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1980 Census of Population, Volume 1: Characteristics of the Population. 

United States Summary, PC80-1-B1, Tables 41 and 42, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. 

Preferred 1980 estimate: Spencer, 1986. Enumerated 1990 figure: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of

Population: General Population Characteristics-United States. 1990 CP-1-1, Table 13, U.S. Department of 

Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Washington, DC.

Enumerated

Preferred estimate

4,447 2,300

10,369

3,300

106,441

4,800

32,194

15,000

37,306
16 P23-199 U.S. Census Bureau

between them. For example, Methods for estimating the num- there were 29,131 centenarians

householders filling out the census ber of elderly at the oldest ages in- enrolled in Medicare Part B at the

questionnaire may have mistak- clude the method of extinct end of 1991 (Kestenbaum, 1998).

enly identified their child by the generations4, surviving younger In order to test the accuracy of this

relationship from the child’s per- age cohorts from prior censuses, estimate, centenarians found in

spective, i.e., a father would iden- and the vital statistics method. the enrollment files were comtify his son as “father.” As parents The accuracy of all three methods pared with those from a sample of

must be older than their children, is dependent on the availability death certificates from the 1993

this “father” would then be reas- and reliability of mortality data, National Mortality Followback Sursigned an age greater than that of while the latter two are also de- vey (NMFS) that had viable social

the householder, which in some pendent on the reliability of the security numbers. For the populacases could be greater than age initial census counts used as the tion aged 100 and over, age re100. In response to this problem base for calculations. With respect ported in the SSA administrative

of “elderly children,” editing proce- to death registration records, files was found to be in exact

dures for 1990 did not allow for Preston and his colleagues (1998) agreement with the age recorded

any children or grandchildren over maintain that age reporting on on the death certificate for 84 perthe age of 90. With these changes, death certificates is often problem- cent of the matched cases. In adit is expected that the centenarian atic at older ages, resulting in un- dition, 93.8 percent of the indipopulation reported in 1990 is less derestimation of mortality at ages viduals identified as centenarians

likely to contain these false cente- 85 and above. As a result, when on death certificates were also

narians. the methods discussed above are centenarians according to SSA

applied, the count of people sur- records, while another 2.5 percent

How Many viving to extreme old ages is likely were age 99. Consistent with the

Centenarians Were to be inflated. Research by findings of Preston and his colThere in 1990? Kestenbaum (1998) tends to con- leagues, when the age from the

firm the contention of net under- two records was not in exact

Attempts to determine the statement of age on death certifi- agreement, the age reported on true number of centenarians in the

cates. the death certificate was likely to United States by the Census Bu- An alternative method for esti- be younger. Exact age agreement reau and the Social Security Ad- mating the number of centenarians was less likely for Blacks than for ministration (Kestenbaum, 1998) is to tabulate Medicare records. Whites. Overall, the matching case have generated estimates ranging Examination of the Master Benefi- study provides strong support for from about 28,000 in 1990 to ciary Record File for Medicare at the accuracy of age information in 29,131 at the end of 1991, respec- the end of 1987 resulted in an es- the SSA records, and therefore sup- tively. There are others who be- timate of 22,000 to 23,000 cente- ports the reliability of the estimate lieve that the true number of cen- narians (Kestenbaum, 1992). More of 29,131 centenarians for 1991. tenarians in the United States recent work in this area using the Of these 29,131 centenarians, could be much lower than esti- now simpler and more complete 93 percent are ages 100 to 104, mates falling within this range on Medicare enrollment files compiled 16 percent are male, and 10 the assumption of even greater by the Health Care Financing percent are Black. In comparison, age misreporting than previously Administration concludes that only 83 percent of the 37,306 Cen- discussed (Kannisto, 1990; 1994; sus centenarians were between the

Vaupel and Jeune, 1995). 4 This method uses death registration data ages of 100 and 104, 21 percent Several alternative sources of to reconstruct the population of a specified age

group at any given time. First, it identifies each were male, and 16 percent were data have been used to estimate death with a particular birth cohort. The

population at a certain age for a particular date is Black. According to census data, 9 the size of the population at older then equal to the sum of all the deaths that occur percent of Census centenarians ages, including SSA records, Medi- at or after that age within the same cohort up to

its extinction. To estimate the number of were aged 105 to 109 years and 7 care enrollment files, and death centenarians in 1990, the deaths for all age

cohorts 100 and over in 1990 are summed in percent were aged 110 years or registration records from the Na- each subsequent year until all the age cohorts older.

tional Center for Health Statistics. have been reduced to zero. Available death

registration data and deaths based on projected

mortality for years where such data are not

available are used for these calculations.
U.S. Census Bureau P23-199 17

Examination of socioeconomic Elo, I. T. and S. H. Preston, DC 20233 (Phone: 301-457-4100) characteristics of the 1990 Census 1994, “Estimating African Ameri- or visit our website at

sample of centenarians provides can Mortality from Inaccurate www.census.gov. Data for Finland, evidence that individuals enumer- Data,” Demography, Vol. 31, No. 4, Japan, and Sweden are from coun- ated as aged 110 or over were not pp. 427-458. try censuses and administrative truly centenarians. For example, of records. Elo, I. T., S. H. Preston, I.

the 1,505 Whites reported as aged Rosenwaike, M. Hill, and T. P.

110 or older, 68 percent reported Cheney, 1996, “Consistency of Age having no mobility or personal References Reporting on Death Certificates care limitations. It is very doubt- Bachu, A., 1995, Fertility of and Social Security Records Among ful that this large a proportion American Women: June 1994, U.S. Elderly African Americans,” Social

could reach such an advanced age Bureau of the Census, Current Science Research, Vol. 25, pp. 292- without any functional or mental Population Reports, P20-482, U. S. 307.

limitations. In addition, among Government Printing Office, WashWhites, nearly 30 percent of those Horiuchi, S. and J. R. Wilmoth, ington, DC. 1998, “Deceleration in the Age Pat- aged 110 and over claimed to live

Bowerman, W. G., 1939, “Cen- tern of Mortality at Older Ages,” alone and over 41 percent claimed

tenarians,” Transactions of the Ac- Demography, Vol. 35, No. 4, pp. to be married, both of which are

tuarial Society of America, Vol. 40, 391-412. unlikely scenarios for people of

No. 102, pp. 360-378. such advanced age. Kannisto, V., 1990, “Les

All of the above mentioned es- Coale, A. J. and E. E. Kisker, Centenaires dans le Monde,” Poputimates of the centenarian popula- 1986, “Mortality Crossover: Reality lation, Vol. 45, pp. 423-426.

tion are potentially biased by the or Bad Data?,” Population Studies, Kestenbaum, B., 1998, “Recent incidence and prevalence of age Vol. 40, pp. 389-401. Mortality of the Oldest Old, From misreporting, be it intentional or Coale, A. J. and E. E. Kisker, Medicare Data,” Working Paper, So- mistaken. As such, caution should 1990, “Defects in Data on Old-Age cial Security Administration, Balti- be used when viewing any demo- Mortality in the United States: New more, MD. graphic profile of the extreme Procedures for Calculating Mortal- aged in our population. As Siegel Kestenbaum, B., 1992, “A De- ity Schedules and Life Tables at the and Passel aptly concluded in scription of the Extreme Aged Highest Ages,” Asian and Pacific 1976, “until a complete population Population Based on Improved Population Forum, Vol. 4, No. 1, register or vital registration system Medicare Enrollment Data,” Demog- pp. 1-31. has been in existence in a country raphy, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 565-580.

for at least 100 years, it is unlikely Das Gupta, P., 1991, “Recon- Manton, K. G. and B. Singer,

that the true number of centenar- struction of the Age Distribution of 1994, “What’s the Fuss about Comians can be known” (p. 566). the Extreme Aged in the 1980 Cen- pression of Mortality?,” Chance, sus by the Method of Extinct GenData Sources Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 21-30. erations,” American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Social Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and The 1990 census data inStatistics Section, pp. 154-159. J. W. Vaupel, 1981, “Methods for cluded in the report are from Sum- Comparing the Mortality Experi- mary Tape File 1, Subject Summary Das Gupta, P., 1999, personal ence of Heterogeneous Popula- Tape File 19: The Older Population communication about extension of tions,” Demography, Vol. 18, pp. of the United States, and special estimates produced in Das Gupta, 389-410. tabulations of the detailed 1990 1991.

census file. For more information Manton, K. G. and J. W. Vaupel, Day, J. C., 1996, Population about the publication program for 1995, “Survival After the Age of 80 Projections of the United States by the 1990 Census of Population and in the United States, Sweden, Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Ori- Housing and the Census Bureau’s France, England, and Japan,” The

gin: 1995 to 2050, U.S. Bureau of

wide range of data products, con- New England Journal of Medicine, the Census, Current Population Re- tact Customer Services, U.S. Bu- Vol. 333, No. 18, pp. 1232-1235. ports, P25-1130, U.S. Government reau of the Census, Washington, Printing Office, Washington, DC.
18 P23-199 U.S. Census Bureau

National Center for Health Sta- Spencer, G, 1987, “Improve- U.S. Bureau of the Census,

tistics, 1998, Vital Statistics of the ments in the Quality of Census 1980 Census of Population, VolUnited States, 1994, preprint of Age Statistics for the Elderly,” Data ume 1: Characteristics of the PopuVol. II, Mortality, Part A Sec 6 Life for an Aging Population: Proceed- lation, United States Summary,

Tables, Hyattsville, MD. ings of the 1987 Public Health PC80-1-B1, U.S. Government PrintConference on Records and Statis- ing Office, Washington, DC. National Center for Health Statics, July 13-17, Washington, DC. tistics, 1997, “Births and Deaths: U.S. Bureau of the Census,

DHHS Pub No. (PHS) 88-1214, Na- United States, 1996,” Monthly Vi- 1992, 1990 Census of Population: tional Center for Health Statistics, tal Statistics Report; Vol 46 No 1, General Population Characteris- Hyattsville, MD, pp. 231-135. Supp 2, Hyattsville, MD. tics—United States, 1990 CP-1-1,

Spencer, G., 1986, “The Qual- U.S. Department of Commerce, Otten, M. W., S. M. Teutsch, D.

ity of Centenarian Data in the Economics and Statistics Adminis- F. Williamson, and J. S. Marks,

1980 Census,” paper presented at tration, Washington, DC. 1990, “The Effect of Known Risk

the 1986 Annual Meeting of the Factors on the Excess Mortality of Vaupel, J. W., 1997, “The Re- Population Association of America, Black Adults in the United States,” markable Improvements in SurSan Francisco, CA. Journal of the American Medical vival at Older Ages,” talk prepared

Association, Vol. 263, pp. 845- U.S. Bureau of the Census, for Royal Society/ British Academy

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