84

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5 

0 

84

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5 

0 

Figure 1.

Population of Russia by Age and Sex: 1996 and 2020

(Single years of age)

Millions

1.60 0

Male Female

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.

1.20 .80 .40

1996

2020

Age

Male Female Age

0 .40 .80 1.20 1.60

International Brief

by Ward Kingkade

IB/96-2

Issued February 1997

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

While recent Russian demographic

trends reflect the country’s current

economic and social malaise, they

also continue to reveal the shocks

experienced by Russia’s population

earlier in this century. 

Russia’s fertility has been falling

sharply since the breakup of the

USSR: Russia’s 1993 total fertility

rate (TFR) of 1.4 ranks among the

lowest in Europe. Despite this, 

access to modern contraceptive

methods remains difficult.

In 1992 Russia’s population passed

a demographic milestone, experiencing more deaths than births. 

Although attention is often given

to the increased mortality among

adult men, mortality has also risen

for women and infants.

National averages for Russia as 

a whole often mask variation in 

demographic patterns and conditions within Russia’s vast territory.

Population Growth and

Composition

Russia’s population dynamics over

the foreseeable future will be closely connected to the composition of

Russia’s population, which possesses a highly irregular age-sex

structure (figure 1), due to the 

vicissitudes of history. As of 1996

the effect of World War II is clearly

visible in the dent around age 50,

reflecting the small number of wartime births relative to the prewar

and postwar years. The trough

around age 60 corresponds to the

famine and disruption occasioned

by the forced collectivization of

agriculture and the purges of the

1930’s. Further down, the depression around age 25 is an echo effect of World War II. The population ages 25-29 in 1996 is largely

the children of mothers born during

the war and the immediate postwar

years, who were and remain less

numerous than their counterparts 

a few years older or younger.

Upon reaching childbearing age

this small contingent of mothers

produced smaller numbers of children than were registered in the

preceding and ensuing years. The

narrowing at the base of Russia’s

current age pyramid includes the

granddaughters of mothers born in

the war years.

Russia’s age-sex structure leads to

sizeable fluctuations in births as the

various cohorts pass through the

reproductive ages. Much of the recent drop in births in Russia is due

to the aging of the relatively large

1950’s birth cohorts, which passed

out of the prime ages of childbearing by 1995. Similarly, the population increases projected for the first
Figure 2.

Total Fertility Rates by Region:

1990 and 1993

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Russia

North

Northwest

Central

Volga–Vyatka

Chernozem

Volga

North Caucasus

Urals

West Siberia

East Siberia

Far East

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.

Total fertility rate

1990

1993

0

2

decade of the next century will be

shaped, in part, by the entry into

the reproductive ages of the 

cohorts born in the 1980’s.

Since 1992 annual deaths in Russia have exceeded births, currently

by about 1 million. The impact of

this negative natural increase is

offset for the most part by the 

influx of migrants from other 

former Soviet Republics, many of

whom are Russians or Russianspeaking. Russia’s 1994 adjusted

crude death rate of 16 per 1,000 

is more than 11/2 times as high as

the crude birth rate of 9.8 per

1,000, while the net migration 

rate for that year is estimated at

5.5 per 1,000.

Current projections indicate that

Russia’s population will decline

somewhat by the turn of the century and that growth will resume at a

low rate during the first part of the

21st century (table 1).

Russia’s population, already relatively old, is expected to continue to

age, so that by 2020 half the population will be over 40 and more

than 14 percent will be over 65. 

The number of children ages 0-4

in Russia has fallen in the first part

of this decade (from 14 million in

1990 to 10 million today) but is expected to rise again over the next

10 years.

Fertility

Although Russia is a low fertility

country in global terms, by the

standards of European and other

industrialized countries Russia’s

fertility levels have figured among

the highest for most of the period

since the 1950’s. As recently as

1988 Russia’s total fertility rate of

2.2 was adequate for the longterm replacement of the population. All this has changed in the

past few years. Starting in 1989,

fertility began to decline in Russia,

accelerating sharply since the

breakup of the former USSR. By

1992 Russia’s TFR of 1.6 was

about average for West Europe.

The rate has continued to fall, and

Russia’s 1993 TFR of 1.4 (figure

2) ranks as one of the very lowest

in Europe. Because few countries

have sustained such low fertility for

long, and in view of the exceptional nature of Russia’s recent history,

Russia’s fertility is expected to rise

from its present low, although not

back to replacement levels.

As fertility has declined in Russia,

the share of births occurring at

young ages has been increasing:

while the overall TFR declined by

about 40 percent since the late

1980’s, the fertility of women under

age 20 fell only 2 percent.

Geographic, social and cultural diversity go together with Russia’s

vast size. Levels of fertility vary

accordingly. Above-replacement

fertility still characterizes the rural

populations of some of Russia’s

southern and eastern territories.

The North Caucasus Region,

which is the region with the smallest proportion of ethnic Russians,

has the highest fertility level

among the economic regions.

Still, all of Russia’s economic 

regions have experienced fertility

reductions in the past few years—

some of them quite dramatic. The

region with the lowest fertility is the

Northwest Region, an area adjacent to the Baltics and including 

St. Petersburg. In 1993 this region

registered an exceptionally low total

fertility rate of 1.03. This level of

fertility would, if maintained in the

absence of migration, imply halving

of the population each generation.

Another noteworthy aspect of 

recent Russian fertility trends is

the rising share of births out-ofwedlock. As of 1993, roughly 

18 percent of all births occurred to

unmarried women, and the share

has risen steadily over the past

few years (figure 3). This is close

to the West European average

and comparable to the White population of the United States. The

share of out-of-wedlock births is

twice as high in East Siberia and

the Far East than in the Volga and

Chernozem regions.

Mortality

Since the 1960’s, there has been

little overall improvement in Russian mortality. Periods of mortality

decline have been succeeded by

spells of apparent increase. The

present phase of deterioration has

brought Russian life expectancy

from a postwar high of 70.1 in

1986-87 to its 1994 level of 65.1,

which is the lowest registered for

the postwar period. While the recent increase in death rates has

been greatest among adult men,

mortality rates have also risen

among women and infants.

Russia’s regions differ in mortality

as well as fertility. All regions have

experienced rises in mortality
Figure 3.

Share of Out-of-Wedlock Births

by Region: 1990-93

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Russia

North

Northwest

Central

Volga–Vyatka

Chernozem

Volga

North Caucasus

Urals

West Siberia

East Siberia

Far East

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.

Percent of total births

1990

1991

1992

1993

Figure 4.

Maternal Mortality by Region: 1993-94

0 20 40 60 80 100

Russia

North

Northwest

Central

Volga–Vyatka

Chernozem

Volga

North Caucasus

Urals

West Siberia

East Siberia

Far East

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.

Rate per 100,000 live births

Other causes

Abortion

3

since 1990. The Siberian, Far

Eastern, North, and Northwest 

Regions are distinguished by

above average mortality.

Among the adverse characteristics of Russian reproductive

health are high rates of maternal

and infant mortality. These rates

are approximately at levels seen

in various countries of Latin America (e.g., Argentina) but are many

times higher than the rates in

most developed countries.

Russia’s maternal mortality, at

about 52 deaths per 100,000 live

births, is 6 to 7 times higher than

rates in the United States or Western Europe and has shared in the

recent general rise in Russian

mortality. Abortions account for

about 28 percent of maternal

mortality in Russia. Roughly 90

percent of maternal deaths due to

abortion involve illegal abortions.

The maternal mortality rate varies

considerably across Russia’s 

regions, ranging from 37 to 78 

(figure 4).

Russia’s infant mortality rate (24.7

per 1,000 in 1995) is about three

times greater than in the United

States or Western Europe.

It is widely recognized that mortality from infectious diseases can

be prevented in most cases by

standard medical treatments and

public health precautions, such as

antibiotics and proper sanitation.

An inspection of infant mortality

rates by cause of death in Russia

shows that the rates of infant

mortality due to infectious diseases and pneumonia in the less

developed and more remote regions (North Caucasus, East and

West Siberia, the Far East) are

much higher than in the northern

and western parts of Russia (figure 5). Also, the rates in almost

all rural areas, including rural

parts of the most developed regions, are much higher than in 

urban areas. Since deaths from

these causes can be prevented by

reasonably straightforward remedial actions, the regional variations in the corresponding infant

mortality rates suggest wide differences in living conditions and social infrastructure throughout 

Russia.

Contraceptive Prevalence 

and Abortion

Russia’s former government was

pronatalist, but not coercively so.

In the 1980’s the Communist Party

instituted a system of incentives

including extended partly paid maternity leaves and cash awards

graduated by birth order. However, IUD insertions and abortions

were available upon request.

Estimates of contraceptive prevalence for Russia vary widely. Recent information indicates that twothirds of married women (ages

20-49) practice some form of family

planning, including 18 percent who

rely on traditional methods such as

rhythm (table 2). Earlier data

showed lower rates of contraceptive prevalence. Only 30 percent of

women in a national-level survey in

1990 reported using any form of

family planning, whether regularly

or only occasionally. Even at the

higher rates, only half of the

women who want no more children

are using modern methods of contraception, and a quarter are using

no method at all. Unmet need for

family planning assumes significant

proportions in Russia’s population.

Based on the more recent surveys,
Figure 5.

Infant Mortality Rates for Selected Causes of

Death by Region: 1993-94

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center.

Rate per 100,000 live births

Total

Urban

Rural

600 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Russia

North

Northwest

Central

Volga-Vyatka

Chernozem

Volga

N. Caucasus

Urals

West Siberia

East Siberia

Far East

Infectious diseases Pneumonia

4

about 8.5 million women who want

no more children are not using

modern contraception and 4.6 million of them are not using any family planning method.

Contraceptive use in Russia is

characterized by an unusual method mix (figure 6). The IUD is the

most common method, used by

roughly half of married women

ages 20-49 who are practicing

contraception. Only about 6 percent use oral contraceptives,

which in the past were discouraged as potentially harmful by the

medical profession and the public

health administration.

Russia’s low fertility has been associated with heavy reliance on

abortion. Russia and her neighbors together with Romania and

Bulgaria stand out as the countries

with the highest rates of abortion

in the world. The abortion rates of

Russia and the other European republics of the former USSR are

several times higher than those of

the United States and Western Europe. Russia has perennially had

the highest abortion rate among

the former Soviet republics, recently registering twice as many

abortions as births. As the number of births has dropped lately, so

has the number of abortions.

Nonetheless, the ratios of abortions to births have been increasing in Russia and her neighbors in

recent years, indicating that the

fraction of pregnancies that are

unwanted remains substantial and

may even be increasing. In 1993,

there were 3.2 million abortions reported in Russia, compared with

4.4 million in 1985.

Ratios of abortions to births in

Russia’s regions do not differ

greatly, the principal standout being the lower ratio for the North

Caucasus. The inhabitants of this

Figure 6.

Contraceptive Use by 

Method: 1994

(Percent of currently married women 

ages 20-49 who use some means 

of contraception)

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 

International Programs Center.

Traditional

27.2%

IUD 49.6%

Pill 6.0%

Other modern

17.2%

region represent a variety of ethnic

minorities, including some traditionally Islamic groups.

The family planning behavior of

Russia’s population reflects the

adaptation of its members to the

scarcities and constraints of the

social and economic environment.

These have included irregular supply and unreliable quality of the

contraceptives which are most

widely preferred on a worldwide

basis, such as the pill. High prices

may also be an obstacle. Because Russia’s population is highly

educated and mobile, it seems

likely that as supply and quality issues are resolved and the general

economic environment improves

we will see a shift towards modern

methods and, perhaps, a more

typical mix of these methods.

The International Programs 

Center (IPC) collects, assesses, and

analyzes population and related statistics from all countries. Based on these

data, IPC produces the demographic

estimates and projections used in this

series of reports. This report, written

by Ward Kingkade, was prepared with

the support of the U.S. Agency for International Development. More detailed information is available from the

International Programs Center, Population Division, U.S. Bureau of the

Census, Washington, DC 20233-8860.

References

Barkalov, N.B. and L.E. Darskiy. 

Russia: Fertility, Contraception, Induced Abortion, and Maternal Mortality. The Futures Group. 1994.

Entwisle, B., P. Kozreva, N. Zohoori

and C. Cross. Family Planning and

Abortion in the Russian Federation.

The Russia Longitudinal Monitoring

Survey, 1992-1994. University of

North Carolina, Chapel Hill. 1995.

Popov, A.A., “Family Planning in Russia,” presented (postmortem) at the

RAND Workshop on Russia’s Demographic Crisis in Comparative Perspective, Santa Monica, June 5-6,

1995.

“Problemy sem’i, okhrany materinstva i

detstva” (“Problems of the family, maternal and child care”), Vestnik statistiki, 6, 1991, pp.55-64.
Regional Demographic Indicators: 1993 and 1994

Region

1994

population

(thousands)

1993 1993 and 1994

Total

fertility rate

Abortions

(thousands)

Abortions

per 1,000

woman

15-49

Percent of

births out

of wedlock

Maternal

mortality

from all

causes

(per

100,000

live births)

Maternal

mortality

from

abortions

(per

100,000

live births)

Infant

mortality

rate (per

1,000 live

births)

Infant

mortality

rates from

infectious

and

respiratory

diseases

(per 1,000

live births)

Total........... 148,363 1.40 3,244 88 18 52.0 14.0 25.00 5.33

North ............ 5,975 1.32 117 77 20 44.8 8.4 22.74 3.40

Northwest ........ 8,073 1.03 150 72 20 37.8 17.2 22.21 3.62

Central........... 29,911 1.17 575 78 16 44.6 8.4 22.72 3.96

Volga-Vyatka ..... 8,505 1.36 184 90 13 38.9 9.9 22.22 3.88

Chernozem ....... 7,894 1.39 161 89 12 57.8 13.6 22.70 4.02

Volga Proper ..... 16,932 1.45 391 95 14 57.6 14.2 25.52 4.83

North Caucasus. . . 17,599 1.80 297 71 18 38.8 10.7 26.53 7.99

Ural.............. 20,506 1.45 500 100 19 50.0 14.5 24.51 5.78

West Siberia...... 15,192 1.37 349 90 20 63.3 22.0 26.51 5.88

East Siberia ...... 9,190 1.56 246 106 27 78.6 22.8 29.36 6.43

Far East.......... 7,657 1.45 189 91 25 68.6 16.4 27.78 5.18

Note: Totals include Kaliningrad Oblast not shown separately.

5

Economic Regions of Russia
Table 1.

Population Indicators for Russia: 1990 to 2020

(Absolute figures in thousands)

Indicator 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2020

Total ............ 148,081 148,291 147,938 148,907 149,978 149,632

Urban ............. 109,176 108,167 110,933 114,546 118,115 122,836

Rural ............. 38,905 40,124 37,005 34,361 31,863 26,797

Male, total country

All ages .......... 69,325 69,451 69,100 69,610 70,329 70,620

0-5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,174 5,225 5,083 6,390 6,322 5,017

6-9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,725 4,910 3,461 3,316 4,301 3,801

10-16 ............. 7,548 8,196 8,537 6,502 5,869 7,403

17-19 ............. 3,090 3,272 3,525 3,771 2,715 3,219

15-49 ............. 36,228 38,268 39,201 39,062 36,952 35,886

50-64 ............. 11,808 9,796 9,791 10,292 12,635 13,094

55+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,929 12,409 11,290 11,760 13,143 16,374

0-15 .............. 18,412 17,226 15,825 15,035 15,735 15,145

Work age .......... 43,410 44,074 44,284 46,338 45,785 43,634

Pension ........... 7,503 8,152 8,991 8,237 8,808 11,841

Female, total country

All ages .......... 78,756 78,840 78,838 79,297 79,650 79,012

0-5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,901 5,003 4,865 6,104 6,033 4,786

6-9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,580 4,733 3,318 3,179 4,112 3,627

10-16 ............. 7,335 7,961 8,247 6,248 5,631 7,077

17-19 ............. 2,974 3,204 3,448 3,661 2,617 3,090

20-29 ............. 10,459 9,950 10,873 11,484 11,820 8,308

15-49 ............. 36,024 38,391 39,733 39,593 37,309 35,985

50-64 ............. 15,052 12,533 12,720 12,995 15,781 15,586

0-15 .............. 17,808 16,617 15,210 14,399 15,048 14,459

Work age .......... 40,576 40,435 43,228 44,241 42,660 39,596

Pension ........... 20,371 21,787 20,400 20,658 21,941 24,958

Female, married

Total 15+ ......... 36,357 36,614 37,037 37,741 38,212 37,179

15-49 ............. 24,292 25,709 26,265 26,116 25,589 24,105

15-19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 520 559 609 626 437 538

20-24 ............. 2,892 3,189 3,417 3,652 3,632 2,590

25-29 ............. 4,611 3,821 4,264 4,447 4,741 3,285

30-34 ............. 5,280 4,790 4,007 4,398 4,582 4,840

35-39 ............. 4,839 5,166 4,706 3,907 4,285 4,755

40-44 ............. 3,787 4,616 4,926 4,469 3,716 4,252

45-49 ............. 2,363 3,568 4,337 4,618 4,196 3,845

DEPENDENCY RATIOS (Both Sexes)

Total ............ 49.40 49.80 45.80 46.10 46.10 48.80

Youth ............. 34.40 32.00 28.20 26.80 28.50 27.30

Old age . . . . . . . . . . . 15.00 17.80 17.60 19.30 17.50 21.50

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE

Fertility rate per woman 1.947 1.422 1.947 1.865 1.810 1.749

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

Both sexes ......... 68.50 63.24 65.36 67.37 69.23 73.01

Male .............. 63.39 56.51 59.37 62.08 64.59 68.86

Female ............ 73.86 70.31 71.65 72.92 74.10 77.36

INFANT MORTALITY RATE

Both sexes ......... 23.10 24.70 21.60 18.60 16.00 11.40

Male .............. 25.10 27.20 23.20 19.50 16.50 12.00

Female ............ 20.90 22.10 19.90 17.60 15.50 10.70

Notes: According to Russian conventions, the working age population

consists of men ages 16-59 and women ages 16-54. The pension age population

comprises women ages 55+ and men ages 60+.

The child dependency ratio expresses the ratio of the population ages

0-14 per 100 persons ages 15-64. The old age dependency ratio is the ratio of the

population ages 65+ per 100 persons ages 15-64. The total dependency ratio is

the sum of these two ratios.

Table 2.

Contraceptive Prevalence: 1992 and 1994

Method

Percent of currently

married women

ages 20-49

Percent

of users

1992 1994 1992 1994

Any . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62.5 66.8 100.0 100.0

Any traditional ............. 18.1 18.2 29.0 27.2

Any modern ............... 44.4 48.6 71.0 72.8

IUD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29.7 33.1 47.5 49.6

Pill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 4.0 5.3 6.0

Other .................... 11.4 11.5 18.2 17.2

Source: Entwisle, et al., 1995.

Table 3.

Average Age of Users of Contraceptive Methods

Among Currently Married Women Ages 20-49:

1992 and 1994

Method 1992 1994

Any . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33.6 33.5

Any traditional ....................... 35.2 34.4

Any modern ......................... 32.9 33.1

IUD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33.5 33.2

Pill ................................ 29.8 29.2

Other .............................. 32.5 34.2

Source: Entwisle, and U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs

Center, unpublished tables.

Table 4.

Age-Specific Fertility Rates

(Per 1,000 women)

Age 1979-

1980

1986-

1987 1990 1995 2000 2010 2020

<20 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44.1 49.3 57.4 50.0 68.4 63.6 61.4

20-24 ............ 162.1 174.6 161.7 121.0 165.6 153.9 148.7

25-29 ............ 104.4 125.7 96.1 69.4 95.0 88.3 85.3

30-34 ............ 54.2 69.2 49.7 30.8 42.2 39.2 37.9

35-39 ............ 19.0 28.0 20.0 10.9 14.9 13.8 13.3

40-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 5.9 4.3 2.3 3.1 2.9 2.8

45-49 . . . . . . . . . . . . .4 .2 .2 .1 .2 .2 .2

Total fertility rate

(per woman) ....... 1.947 2.264 1.947 1.422 1.947 1.810 1.749

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center, unpublished tables.

6