10A-i APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTI ONS FOR NATIONAL IMPACT

ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS ...................................................................................... 10A-110A-1 APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR NATIONAL IMPACT

ANALYSIS SPREADSHEET

10A.1 USER INST RUCTIONS

The results obtained in the shipments and nation al impact analysis (NIA) analyses can be examined and reproduced using the Microsof t Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s website at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_st andards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html.

The spreadsheet is called “NIA_SmallMotor.x ls” and it enables the user to perform a national impact analysis of small electric moto r standards for three produ ct classes: polyphase, capacitor-start induction-run (CSIR), and capacito r-start capacitor-run (CSCR) motors. To run the spreadsheet, the user needs to have Microsoft Excel 2000 or a later version.

The NIA spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the changes in national energy (NES) and net present value (NPV) due to an energy efficiency standa rd. The energy use and associated costs for a given standard are determ ined first by calculating the shipments and then calculating the energy use and costs for a product class. The differences between the standards and base cases (absent a nati onal standard) can then be co mpared and the NES and NPV determined. The NIA spreadsheet, or wor kbook, consists of the following worksheets:

Summary This worksheet summarizes the results of the NIA analysis and provides a means of changing th e discount rate of the NPV analysis and the current year.

NIA-Polyphase This worksheet provides the accounting and results for both the energy and economic impacts of each standard level for polyphase small electric motors. This is the main calculation worksheet for this product class and integrates the appropriate inputs from each of the other worksheets.

NIA-CSIR This worksheet provides the accounting and results for both the energy and economic impacts of each standard level for CSIR

small electric motors. This is the main calculation worksheet for this product class and integrat es the appropriate inputs from

each of the other worksheets.

NIA-CSCR This worksheet provides the accounting and results for both the energy and economic impacts of each standard level for CSCR

small electric motors. This is the main calculation worksheet for this product class and integrat es the appropriate inputs from

each of the other worksheets.10A-2 Shipments Drivers This worksheet provides the data for the macro-economic

drivers for small electric motors shipments. A macro-economic driver is a factor in the national economy that influences the

demand for small electric moto r sales. The three drivers selected by the DOE for small electric motor shipments include the value of manufacturing sh ipments, the amount of total commercial floor space, and the total number of residential

homes.

Shipments Forecast This worksheet provides the detailed forecast of motors shipments by size category and product class.

Shipments Data This worksheet provides the i nput data that were used for initiating the shipments model w ith shipments by product class, size category, and number of poles for the year 2000 and projections of shipments for 2007.

Retirement Function This worksheet contains the small electric motor reliability function and produces the retirement rates. The probabilities of retirement generated in this work sheet are used to calculate the

annual retirements in the stock sheets.

LCC Inputs Data in this worksheet are the mean values for the different

variables from the Monte Carlo simulation runs of the LCC for individual design lines. These data provide the inputs regarding increases of initial cost, and the decrease in energy consumption per motor for each standard level.

Electricity Prices+Heat Rates This worksheet provides the marg inal heat rates (the ratio of source energy to site energy) the long term energy price trends, and the retail energy prices for small electric motors.

Ownership and Applications This worksheet provides the input data regarding ownership, applications, hours of operation and motor loading for the different product classes of small electric motors.

Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheet are as follows:

After downloading the NIA spreadsheet file from DOE's website, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the wo rksheet “Summary.” This worksheet provides the NIA results for all three product classes. Th e main parameter that affects the NPV is the

discount rate. The worksheet allows the user to change the discount rate in cell C5. To provide flexibility, the spreadsheet permits some additiona l user modifications to the model on internal worksheets. In the “Shipments Forecast” work sheet, there are two pull-down menus where the user may select different sales growth scenarios or different pu rchase price elasticities which model how much shipments decrease with increasing purchase price.