f C t i S ll Di t ER d 

1 | Building Technologies Program 

BUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM 

Pu

Framework Document Public Meetingon Energy Conservation Standards 

Margaret SuDepartment of Energy E Effi i & R 

for 

Certain Small Diameter, ER, and 

BR Incandescent Reflector Lamps 

Energy Effi

ciency & R

IRL-2010-STD-0005@

May 26, 2010 
Welcome and Introduction 

• Introductions • Role of the Facilitator • Ground Rules (norms) 

– Listen as an ally 

– Use short, succinct statements/keep to the point 

– Hold sidebar conversations outside the room Hold sidebar conversations outside the room – Focus on issues, not personalities – One 

person s

peak at a time 

(raise hand to be reco

gniz

your name for the record) 

– Set cell phones to silent/vibrate 

• Housekeeping Items 

2 | Building Technologies Program 
–

Agenda 

9:00 – 9:05 am 9:05 am 9:05 – 9:20 am 9:20 – 9:40 am 9:40 – 10:00 am 10:00 am 10:00 – 10:20 am 10:20 – 10:30 am 

Welcome Rulemaking Introduction and Brief Opening RFrom Interested Parties Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview Market and Technology Assessment and ScreMarket and Technology Assessment and Scre

Analysis Engineering Product Price Determination 

3 | Building Technologies Program 
Agenda (continued) 

10:30 – 10:45 am 10:45 – 10:50 am 10:50 – 11:10 am 11:10 – 11:30 am 11:30 – 11:45 pm 11:45 – 12:00 pm 

Break Energy Use Characterization Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis Shipments Analysis, National Impact AnalysiOther NOPR Analyses Next Steps and Closing 

4 | Building Technologies Program 
t t t

Purpose of Public Meeting 

• Present the procedural and analytical approaches 

evaluate energy conservation standards Certain S

Diameter, Elliptical Reflector, and Bulged ReflectoIncandescent Reflector Lamps (IRL). 

• S k t f i t t d ti th f Seek comment from interested parties on the fram

document. 

• Discuss next steps for the rulemaking. Discuss next steps for the rulemaking.

DOE welcomes summary comments or statements th f k d f i ll di the framework document for certain small diameter

elliptical reflector, and bulged reflector incandescenreflector lamps at this time. 

5 | Building Technologies Program 
Issues for Discussion 

Issue Box Throughout this presentation, specific issuebe raised for discussion on slides such as this, with identifying numbers corresponding to those in the Framework Document. Nonetheless, DOE welcomes comment on any part of the presentation or framework document. 

6 | Building Technologies Program 
4

Public Meeting Agenda 

1 Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview2 Market and Tech, Screening Analysis 3 Engineering, Product Price Determination 4 Energy Use and Life Energy Use and Life -Cycle Cost and Payback Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 5 Shipment and National Impact Analyses 6 Other NOPR Analyses 

7 | Building Technologies Program 
Regulatory History 

• Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT 1992) 

– Establish energy conservation standards for incandesc

reflector lamps (IRL), excluding ER and BR bulb shapelamps with diameters of 2.75 inches or less. 

• Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 

– Expanded the definition of IRL to include lamps with a 

between 2.25 and 2.75 inches, as well as ER, BR, PAR

similar bulb shapes. 

– Exempted: 

1) Lamps rated 50W or less that are ER30, BR30, BR40, o

2) Lamps rated 65W that are BR30, BR40, or ER40 3) R20 incandescent reflector lamps rated 45W or less 

8 | Building Technologies Program 
Regulatory History (Continued) 

• July 2009 Lamps Rule 

– Amended existing standards for IRL. – March 2008 ANOPR preliminarily determined that DOE 

have authority to set standards for the exempt IRL (74 

– Jul

y 2009 final rule concluded that based u

pon a reexa

its authority, DOE would conduct a separate rulemakinenergy conservations standards for these currently exeproducts. 

• Federal Register Notice of Public Meeting, May 3, 20

– Gives notice of the public meeting and availability of th

Framework Document being discussed today Framework Document being discussed today. 

– Encourages interested parties to submit comments by 

June 17, 2010 

9 | Building Technologies Program 
–

Framework Document 

Framework 

Document NOPR Final Rule 

Today 

• Today s’ public meeting covers the Framework Docume

public meeting covers the Framework Docume

Exempt Incandescent Reflector Lamps.

• Framework Document 

– DOE has determined it has the authority to regulate exempt IR

DOE has determined it has the authority to regulate exempt IR

– Provides detailed description of analytical approach, tools, and 

will be used to evaluate standards for exempt IRL. 

• Timeline 

– DOE believes that much of the analysis developed for the July 

rule is relevant to this rulemaking.DOE plans to publish a final rule by December 2011 DOE plans to publish a final rule by December 2011. 

10 | Building Technologies Program 
Test Procedures 

• Energy Policy Act of 1992, Test Procedure Final Rule

29221, May 29, 1997 29221, May 29, 1997 

– Established test procedures for incandescent reflector lamps– Incorporated by reference several ANSI and IESNA industry 

• DOE adopted amendments to the IRL test procedure

several industry standards. 74 FR 31829 (July 6, 200

Item 1 DOE welcomes comment on its conclusion that the teprocedures for the IRL covered by this rulemaking do not neeprocedures for the IRL covered by this rulemaking do not nee

updated. DOE believes that the IRL test procedures currentlin 10 CFR part 430, subpart B, appendix R are appropriate foBR, and small diameter IRLs that are the subject of this rulem

11 | Building Technologies Program 
Off Mode and Standby Mode 

Item 2: DOE welcomes comment on its decision to not ameenergy conservation standards to address lamp operation in mode” or “standby mode.” DOE does not believe that any commercially-available IRLs satisfy the definition for “off mo“

s

tandb ymod ” e

” operati f i t i 

on. Th ere

fore, DOE main

t

ains th t 

th

at 

feasible to incorporate off mode or standby mode energy usenergy conservation standards for IRLs. 

12 | Building Technologies Program 
s s

Steps in the NOPR 

Framework Document 

NOPR Final 

Rule 

Market & Technology Technology Engineering Product Price 

Screening Analysis 

g g 

Analysis 

Determination 

Life-Cycle Cost and Payback 

Period Analysis Energy Use 

Characterization 

Shipments 

Analysis 

Period Analysis 

ay 

Manufacturer 

Impact 

Utility 

Impact 

Employment 

Impact 

Life-Cycle 

Cost Environmental 

13 | Building Technologies Program 

Impact 

Analysis 

Impact 

Analysis 

Impact 

Analysis

Subgroup 

Analysis 

Assessment 
4

Public Meeting Agenda 

1 Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview2 Market and Tech, Screening Analysis 3 Engineering, Product Price Determination 4 Energy Use and Life Energy Use and Life -Cycle Cost and Payback Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 5 Shipment and National Impact Analyses 6 Other NOPR Analyses 

14 | Building Technologies Program 
Purpose 

• Market and Technology Assessment 

– Characterize the exempt IRL market and industry. – Establish product classes. – Identify technology options to improve efficacy. 

• Screening Analysis 

– Screen out technology options that DOE will not consi

engineering analysis. 

Item 4 DOE invites interested parties to submit data relevanmarket assessment in the form of a written comment. This historical shipments of the exempted incandescent reflector market by lamp type, lamp wattage, and market sector. 

15 | Building Technologies Program 
Product Classes 

• DOE establishes separate energy conservation stand

each product class each product class. 

• DOE divides covered products into classes by: DOE divides covered products into classes by: 

– The type of energy used; – Capacity of the product; or – Any other performance-related features that requi

standard levels, such as features affecting consum

(42 U.S.C. 6295(q)) 

16 | Building Technologies Program 
Product Classes 

Spectrum Diameter Voltage inches volts

> 2.5 ≥ 125 

Standard < 125 

≤ 25 ≥ 125 2.5 < 125 

> 2.5 ≥ 125 

Modified < 125 

≤ 2 5. ≥ 125 < 125 

Item 3 DOE welcomes comments on its decision to base prclass divisions on standard/modified spectrum, lamp diameinput voltage. 

17 | Building Technologies Program 
Technology Options 

• DOE has identified several technology options:

– Higher Temperature Operation – Microcavity Filaments – Novel Filament Materials – Thinner Filaments – Efficient Filament Coiling – Crystallite Filament Coatings – Efficient Filament Orientation – Efficient Filament Placement – Higher Efficiency Inert Fill Gas – Luminescent Gas – Tungsten-Halogen Lamps 

– Higher Pressure Tun

Halogen Lamps 

– Non-Tungsten-H l a og

Regenerative Cycle

– Integrally Ballasted 

Lamps 

– Infrared Glass Coati– Infrared Phosphor G

Coating 

– Higher Efficiency Re

Coatings 

– Trihedral Corner Re

18 | Building Technologies Program 
Technology Options 

Item 5 DOE welcomes comments on all of the technology ois consideringfor IRLs, including an y omissions or revision

necessary to have a more comprehensive technology for thexempt IRLs covered in this rulemaking. In the context of commenting on technology options, DOE also requests infoon the feasibility performance improvement, and cost of the technology options, as well as any recent developments in technical maturity. 

19 | Building Technologies Program 
Screening Analysis 

• Technology options are screened using the followin

criteria: 

– Technological feasibility – Practicability to manufacture, install, and service – Adverse impacts on product utility or availability to cu

Adverse impacts on product utility or availability to cu

– Adverse impacts on health or safety 

• DOE screened out seven technologies in the July 2

Lamps Rule 

– Microcavity Microcavity Filaments Filaments – Non-Tungsten Tungsten -Ha– Novel Filament Materials Regenerative Cyc– Crystallite Filament – Infrared Phospho

Coatings Coatings Coating Coating 

– Luminescent Gas – Trihedral Corner R

20 | Building Technologies Program 
t t

Screening Analysis 

Item 6 DOE requests comments regarding the technologiewere screened out for the July 2009 fi 2009 final rule and w heth er 

additional technology options should be screened out for thSpecifically, DOE is seeking any data or information that w

DOE to determine whether it is still appropriate to screen oDOE to determine whether it is still appropriate to screen o

technologies. 

21 | Building Technologies Program 
4

Public Meeting Agenda 

1 Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview2 Market and Tech, Screening Analysis 3 Engineering, Product Price Determination 4 Energy Use and Life Energy Use and Life -Cycle Cost and Payback Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 5 Shipment and National Impact Analyses 6 Other NOPR Analyses 

22 | Building Technologies Program 
Engineering Analysis - Purpose 

• The purpose of the engineering analysis and the pro

determination is to: 

– Determine the relationship between efficacy and end-u– Establish efficacy levels for analysis. 

Downstream Rulema

Analyses 

Engineering 

Analysis 

Product Price 

Determination 

• Life-Cycle Cost an

Payback Period An

• National Impact An

23 | Building Technologies Program 
t

Engineering Analysis - Methodology 

 Choose product classes to be analyzed in the 

engineering and life cycle cost analyses 

Choose 

Representative engineering and life-cycle cost analyses. 

 Define characteristics of models in each repre

product class which will serve as reference po

Representative 

Product Classes 

Define Baseline product class, which will serve as reference po

assess changes due to more stringent standar

 Develop efficacy levels that range from the ba

Models 

Develop

Efficacy p y g 

the maximum technologically feasible. 

 Identify higher-efficacy substitutes from a data

Efficacy 

Levels 

Select HigherEfficacy 

commercially-available lamps and by developilamps. 

 S l lt t d t l t di tl 

Scale 

To Product 

Cl N 

y 

Substitutes 

24 | Building Technologies Program 

Classes No  Scale results to product classes not directly an

t Analyzed 
t

I iti l

W Lm 

Representative Product Classes and Baseline Models 

• DOE analyzed manufacturer catalogs and 

t t d d t 120V l 

Choose 

Representative two standard spectrum, 120V lamps comp

majority of the exempt IRL market: 

Representative 

Product Classes 

Define Baseline 

Baseline 

Lamp 

Wattage 

Initial 

Light 

Output 

Efficacy 

W Lm Lm/W 

Models 

Develop

Efficacy Efficacy 

Levels 

Select HigherEfficacy 

Scale 

To Product 

Cl N 

Substitutes 

25 | Building Technologies Program 

Classes Not 

Analyzed 

Lm/W

BR30 65 620 9.5 

R20 45 380 8.4 
t

Efficacy Levels 

• In the July 2009 Lamps rule, DOE developed 

Choose Representative Representative y p p 

levels by observing natural divisions that cormore-efficacious commercially-available tecfound in PAR-shaped lamps. 

Representative

Product Classes

Representative 

Product Classes 

Define Baseline 

• DOE believes there is no clear utility differen

PAR-, ER-, BR-, R-shaped lamps. 

Models 

Develop

Efficacy Efficacy 

Levels 

Select HigherEfficacy 

Scale 

To Product 

Cl N 

Substitutes 

PAR ER BR 

26 | Building Technologies Program 

Classes Not 

Analyzed 

PAR ER BR 
Efficacy Levels 

• DOE intends to use the same efficacy levels as establish

2009 Lamps rule. 

Lamp Efficacy (lm/W) 

24.0 22.0 20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 

8.0 

Baseline: Incandescent (2,000 hr) EL1: Halogen (3,000 hr) EL2: Improved Halogen (Xenon) (3,000 EL3: Long EL3: Long -Life HIR (6,000 hr) Life HIR (6,000 hr) 

Improved Halogen (Silver) (3,000 h

EL4: HIR (3,000 hr) EL5: Improved HIR (4,000 hr) 

EL 6 EL6: Improved HIR Plus (4,200 hr) EL 5 

EL 4 

EL 3 

EL 2 

EL1 

65W BR30 Baseline 

20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1

Lamp Power (W) 

27 | Building Technologies Program 
t

Higher-Efficacy Substitutes 

Choose 

Representative Representative • DOE chose IRL substitutes that save energy 

Product Classes Product Classes 

Define Baseline 

similar lumen output by increasing efficacy areduced-wattage lamps. 

Models 

Develop

Efficacy 

• DOE used commercially-available lamps wh

Efficacy • When commercially-available lamps were no

Levels 

Select HigherEfficacy 

When commercially available lamps were no

DOE developed model lamps to fill in techno

• 65W BR30 lamp substitutes were based on 

Scale 

To Product 

Cl N 

y 

Substitutes • 65W BR30 lamp substitutes were based on 

PAR30 analysis developed in the July 2009 

28 | Building Technologies Program 

Classes Not 

Analyzed 
ed

t

Higher-Efficacy Substitutes45W R20 

Choose 

Representative

Product Classes

Representative 

Product Classes 

Define Baseline 

Models 

Develop

Efficacy Efficacy 

Levels 

Select HigherEfficacy 

Scale 

To Product 

Cl N 

Substitutes 

Classes Not 

Analyzed 

• Due to the scope of coverage (≥ 40W), wattag

limited to 5W for the 45W R20 baseline limited to 5W for the 45W R20 baseline. 

Efficacy 

Level (EL) 

Design 

Option 

Lamp 

Descriptor 

Wattage Efficacy In

W lm/W 

Baseline Incandescent R20 45.0 8.4 

EL1 Halogen PAR20 40.0 10.4 

EL2 

Impo r ved

Halogen 

(Xenon) 

PAR20 40.0 10.9 

EL3 

Long-Life HIR PAR20 40.0 12.1 

Imp roved

Halogen 

(Silver) 

PAR20 40.0 11.6 

EL4 HIR PAR20 40.0 13.3 

EL5 Imp roved HIR PAR20 40.0 14.3 

EL6 Improved HIR Plus PAR20 40.0 15.8 

29 | Building Technologies Program 
t

Scaling 

• Based on test data and technical mo

Choose Representative Representative DOE reduced standard-spectrum lev

15% to determine modified-spectrum 

Product Classes Product Classes 

Define Baseline 

• DOE derived an efficacy scaling fact

high voltage lamps which would resu

Models 

Develop

Efficacy 

equivalent performance of 120 V anlamps when operating under the samvoltage conditions ~15% 

Efficacy 

Levels 

Select HigherEfficacy voltage conditions. 15% 

Scale 

To Product 

Cl N 

y 

Substitutes 

30 | Building Technologies Program 

Classes Not 

Analyzed 
t

Engineering Analysis 

Choose 

Representative Representative 

Item 7 DOE welcomes comments on its decision 

Product Classes Product Classes 

Define Baseline 

same technology for the engineering analysis as the July 2009 final rule. DOE specifically requescomments on the following: (1) the designatedrepresentative product classes; (2) the selected 

Models 

Develop

Efficacy representative product classes; (2) the selected 

lamps; (3) the selected higher-efficiency lamp dethe efficiency levels considered for analysis; and adjustments considered for scaling to product cla

Efficacy 

Levels 

Select HigherEfficacy j g p 

analyzed. 

Scale 

To Product 

Cl N 

y 

Substitutes 

31 | Building Technologies Program 

Classes Not 

Analyzed 
t t t 

Product Price Determination 

• Discount “blue-book” prices to develop high-range, m

range, and low-range end-user retail prices to reflect variability in the market. 

• If a higher-efficacy replacement is not commercially 

apply the incremental price difference associated witapply the incremental price difference associated wit

technology. 

• Apply weighted-average sales tax data by region ba

local data from Sales Tax Clearinghouse local data from Sales Tax Clearinghouse. 

It 9em DOE lwe comes comments on i d i i 

its decision to us

same methodology as the July 2009 final rule to develolamp prices and sales tax figures for this rulemaking. 

32 | Building Technologies Program 
4

Public Meeting Agenda 

1 Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview2 Market and Tech, Screening Analysis 3 Engineering, Product Price Determination 

Energy Use and Life Energy Use and Life -Cycle Cost and Payback Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 4 

5 Shipment and National Impact Analyses 6 Other NOPR Analyses 

33 | Building Technologies Program 
Energy Use Analysis 

• Energy Use = Operating Hours x Lamp Wattage • DOE developed annual operating hours with data fro

surveys (LMC, CBECS, RECS). 

• DOE assumed annual operating hours capture varia

across census divisions and large States, building ty

lighting applications lighting applications. 

Sector Average Operating Hours 

Commercial Commercial 3 450 hrs/yr 3,450 hrs/yr 

Residential 889 hrs/yr 

Item 8 DOE in ites comments on its methodolog to determin

DOE invites comments on its methodology to determin

hours for covered lamps in the commercial and residential se

34 | Building Technologies Program 
p g

Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Period Analysis 

• Purpose 

– Assess the net LCC and PBP impacts on a consumer d

energy conservation standards. 

• Method 

– LCC equals consumer price plus the sum of annual op

costs discounted to a particular base year. 

– Results expressed as LCC difference (baseline minus 

level). 

– Simple Payback (years) is also calculated and reported

Consumer Life 

Cycle Cost

(Baseline and Standard) 

LCC im

(difference b

Operating Cost baseline and 

First Cost 

(Consumer Price & 

Installation) 

35 | Building Technologies Program 

( ) 

(Sum & discount to 

present value) 
–

t t t t t 

Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Period Analysis 

• Total Installed Price (First Cost): 

Purchase price: Purchase price: product price product price, sales tax sales tax.

– Installation cost: labor rate, minutes. 

• Total Operating Cost: 

– Electricity consumption: lamp wattage, operating hour– El i it Electricity cost: el t ec ricity price, proj t ec ede lectricity pr

• Present Value Factors: 

– Discount rate: residential and commercial sector. – Analysis period: lamp lifetime, annual operating hours

36 | Building Technologies Program 
Installation Costs 

• Total installed cost = consumer purchase price (includ

tax) + installation cost. 

– Commercial sector: assumes installation cost as the prod

average labor and time needed to install lamp. average labor and time needed to install lamp. 

– Residential sector: assumes consumers install own repla

lamps, incurring no installation cost. 

• Derive average labor times, rates, and costs using “RS 

Electrical Cost Data 2007” and data from the U.S. Bure

Statistics. Statistics. 

37 | Building Technologies Program 
Purchasing Events 

• New Construction/Renovation 

– Several higher-efficacy replacements have a higher lumen o

the baseline. 

– Normalize total lumens by altering the spacing of fixtures to 

lamps at higher lumen output. 

• Lamp Replacement Lamp Replacement 

– Lumens are not normalized because consumers cannot alte

lamp fixtures. 

Item DOE seeks comment on whether consumers are to normalize lumens for the new construction/renovatiop g urchasing event.

38 | Building Technologies Program 
Energy Prices and Price Trends 

• Derive average regional prices for 13 geographic area

of nine Census Divisions with four lar

ge States, treate

separately. 

– Uses the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) For

which collects electric utility data annually. which collects electric utility data annually.

• Use the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for projec

future average electricity prices (reference high and future average electricity prices (reference, high, and 

scenarios).

– Apply the AEO trends to the energy prices derived from 

861. 

39 | Building Technologies Program 
Discount Rates 

• DOE uses the discount rate to determine the present 

operating expenses over the analysis period. 

• Derive discount rates from estimates of the interest or 

cost” to purchase products. 

• Finance cost of raising funds to purchase products ca

1) Financial cost of any debt incurred to purchase pro2) Opportunity cost of any equity used to purchase pro

Item 10 DOE welcomes comments on its decision to use similar approach as the July 2009 final rule to conduct thsimilar approach as the July 2009 final rule to conduct th

and PBP analysis. 

40 | Building Technologies Program 
4

Public Meeting Agenda 

1 Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview2 Market and Tech, Screening Analysis 3 Engineering, Product Price Determination 4 Energy Use and Life Energy Use and Life -Cycle Cost and Payback Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 5 Shipment and National Impact Analyses 6 Other NOPR Analyses 

41 | Building Technologies Program 
t

Purpose 

• Shipments Analysis 

– To estimate lamp shipments and the product mix of the 

To estimate lamp shipments and the product mix of the 

over the analysis period in the base case and standard

• N ti l I A l National Impact Analysis 

– To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from e

conservation standards at different levels. 

– To estimate the national economic impact on the natio

Net Present Value (NPV), from energy conservation stdifferent levels. 

42 | Building Technologies Program 
Installed Stock and Shipment

Forecasts (2014-2043) 

• Installed Stock 

– Calculate the installed stock of exempt IRL based on h

Calculate the installed stock of exempt IRL based on h

shipments and average service lifetime of each lamp ty

– Apply growth in floor space and assumptions regarding 

emerging technologies to forecast the installed stock emerging technologies to forecast the installed stock. 

– DOE will use the latest versions of RECS and CBECS 

determine anticipated growth in the number of IRL sock

residential and commercial sectors residential and commercial sectors. 

• Shipments 

– Calculate shipments for new construction and lamp 

replacements.

43 | Building Technologies Program 
Historical Shipments 

• DOE uses several assumptions in its shipments ana

– NEMA shipments represent 70% of all non NEMA shipments represent 70% of all non-halogen IR

halogen IR

shipments. 

– EISA 2007 exempted approximately 60% of non-halog

shipments in 2005 shipments in 2005. 

– Sector breakdown: 33% commercial, 67% residential. 

• DOE requests information on the market shares of th

and 45W lamps. 

Item 11 DOE requests comments on these assumptions. 

44 | Building Technologies Program 
Emerging Technologies 

• To account for the market penetration of other lightin

technologies into the IRL market, DOE models two b

shipment scenarios: 

– Existing Technologies – forecasts the penetration of technolo

are currently available and have reached maturation in terms 

and efficacy. (i.e., R-CFL) 

– Emerging Technologies - forecasts the penetration of mature 

technologies and those that are still undergoing significant cprice and efficacy. (i .e., R-CFL, LED , CMH) 

• Methodology to establish market penetration forecas

– Estimate price and performance forecasts of LEDs and CMH– Calculate payback period of LEDs, CMH, and R-CFL compa– Use PBP and market penetration relationships to develop fo

45 | Building Technologies Program 
Draft Base-Case Shipments 

IRL Historical and Base Case Forecasted Shipments

0 120.140.16

ns)

0.12

ents(billion Shipm

Historical ShipmentsExisting Existing Technologies TechnologiesBase Case Forecast ForecastEmerging TechnologiesBase Case Forecast

0.180 160.100.080.060.040.020.00

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 

Year

46 | Building Technologies Program 
Other Shipment Considerations 

• Impact of the July 2009 Lamps Rule 

– Standards ado

pted in the Jul

y 2009 Lam

ps rule will take effe

– Shipments of exempt IRL may increase at that time as some 

choose to purchase the cheapest lamp available. 

• Migration to lower wattage lamps Migration to lower wattage lamps 

– Replacement lamps are available outside the covered watta

(below 40W). Consumers may shift to these lamps as a resustandards. 

Item DOE requests comment on the magnitude of expected to exempt lamps due to the July 2009 Lamps Rule if these lremain unre

gulated. 

Item DOE requests comment on the likelihood of consumer

migrating to <40W lamps (e.g., 39W halogen or incandesce

response to exempt IRL standards response to exempt IRL standards. 

47 | Building Technologies Program 
Issues for Discussion 

Item 11 DOE requests comment on the methodology it is coto forecast shipments and specifically on: (1) historical shipmto forecast shipments and specifically on: (1) historical shipm

and the assumptions presented to develop shipment forecasthe percent market penetration of existing and emerging technologies; (3) modeling a shift to exempted IRL in the ba

due to the July 2009 final rule; and (4) considering only a rolscenario in the standards case. 

48 | Building Technologies Program 
National Energy Savings and Net

Present Value Inputs 

• National Energy Savings 

– Installed Stock – Unit Annual Energy Consumption – Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

• Conversion factors forecast usin

glatest Annual Ener

gy O

– HVAC Interaction 

• Commercial sector: 6.25% • No HVAC modeled in the residential sector No HVAC modeled in the residential sector 

– Rebound Rate 

• Commercial sectors: 1%, Residential sector: 8.5% 

• Net Present Value Net Present Value 

– Shipments – Per Unit Installed Cost – Electricity Prices – Discount Rate – 7% and 3% real 

49 | Building Technologies Program 
Issues for Discussion 

Item 12 DOE welcomes comments on its decision to use thinputs and methodology as the July 2009 final rule to calculand NPV. 

50 | Building Technologies Program 
4

Public Meeting Agenda 

1 Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview Regulatory History and Rulemaking Overview2 Market and Tech, Screening Analysis 3 Engineering, Product Price Determination 4 Energy Use and Life Energy Use and Life -Cycle Cost and Payback Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses 5 Shipment and National Impact Analyses 6 Other NOPR Analyses 

51 | Building Technologies Program 
Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

• Purpose 

– To identify the impacts of energy conservation standar

To identify the impacts of energy conservation standar

manufacturers. 

• Phase 1 

– DOE creates an industry profile to characterize the ind

DOE creates an industry profile to characterize the ind

identify important issues that require consideration. 

• Phase 2 

– DOE prepares an industry cash-flow model and an int

questionnaire to guide interviews. 

• Phase 3 

– DOE interviews manufacturers, and assesses the imp

standards both quantitatively (using the Government RImpact Model) and qualitatively. (impacts on competitiomanufacturing capacity, employment, and regulatory b

52 | Building Technologies Program 
Other NOPR Analyses 

• Life-Cycle Cost Subgroup Analysis 

– Effects on various national consumer subgroups 

• Utility Impact Analysis 

– Impacts on the generation capacity of utilities Impacts on the generation capacity of utilities 

• Employment Impact Analysis 

– Indirect impacts on overall national employment 

• Environmental Assessment 

– Effects on airborne pollutant emissions 

• Regulatory Impact Analysis Regulatory Impact Analysis 

– Impacts of non-regulatory alternatives 

53 | Building Technologies Program 
Issues for Discussion 

Item 13 DOE currently plans on assessing the impacts on lohouseholds and senior citizens, but seeks input regarding wconsumer subgroups it should consid thier in this rulemaking.

Item 14 DOE welcomes comments on its methodology for athe impacts on manufacturers of products covered under th

rulemaking. 

Item 15 DOE welcomes comments on its approach to assesimpacts of potential standards on the products covered undimpacts of potential standards on the products covered und

rulemaking. To estimate the effects of energy conservation for exempt IRLs on the utility industry, DOE plans to use a v

EIAs ’NEMS that refers to DOE NEMS that refers to DOE s ’Building Technologies Pro

Building Technologies Pro

(NEMS-BT). Item 19 DOE welcomes comments on the methodology it is 

consid i f th l t i t l i idering for the regulatory impact analysis 

54 | Building Technologies Program 
Issues for Discussion 

Item 16 DOE welcomes comments on its approach to assessinemployment impacts of standards on the products covered undrulemaking. The indirect employment impacts are investigated employment impact analysis using the Pacific Northwest NatioLaboratory’s “Impact of Sector Energy Technologies” (ImSET) whereas the direct employment impacts are calculated during twhereas the direct employment impacts are calculated during t

manufacturer impact analysis. Item 17 DOE welcomes comments on its plan to use NEMS-BT the environmental assessment on the equipment covered by thrulemaking. DOE is particularly interested in whether there are approaches to the environmental assessment that it should conthe advantages and disadvantages for each approach. 

Item 18 DOE welcomes comments on its approach for the monemissions 

55 | Building Technologies Program 
How to Submit Written Comments 

• In all correspondence, please refer to the Exempt Inc

Reflector Lamps rulemaking by: 

– Docket Number EERE–2010–BT–STD–0005, and – Regulatory Identification Number (RIN) 1904-AC15 

•

Email : IRL-2010-STD-0005@ee.

doe.gov 

Postal: Courier: 

Ms. Brenda Edwards Ms. Brenda Edwards U.S. Department of Energy U.S. Department of Ener

Building Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2J Building Technologies Pro1000 Inde

pendence Avenue, SW 950 L’Enfant Plaza, SW 

Washington, DC 20585-0121 Washington, DC 20024 

Tel: 202 586-2945 

• Comment period closes: Comment period closes: June 17 June 17, 2010 

56 | Building Technologies Program