U.S. Department of Labor

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Summary 98-5

May 1998

Are Workers More Secure?

B

etween February 1995 and 1997, the pro

portion of workers holding contingent

jobs declined slightly. (See table.) Some

contingent jobs are explicitly temporary;

others are held by persons who do not think

they could continue to work for their

employer for as long as they wish, even

assuming their performance is adequate and

that economic conditions stay the same.

The slight decline in the contingency rate

could suggest that job security had increased

somewhat over the 2-year period.1 Confidence in that conclusion would be enhanced if

the decline in contingency or “insecurity”

were consistent with other data from the

survey, were broadly spread among demographic and economic groups, and were

supported by other measures of job security.

The data from the supplement support the

finding of increased job security. In 1995,

Contingent workers as a share of employed by sex, race,

and Hispanic origin, 1995 and 1997

Total Men Women White Black Hispanic

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Percent

1995 1997

Percent

34.7 percent of contingent workers said they

were in this type of job because of economic

factors, such as the “hope that this job would

lead to permanent employment.” The biggest

single economic factor, cited by nearly a

quarter of all contingent workers, was that

they “could only find this type of employment.” In February 1997, fewer than onefifth of contingent workers were in “the only

type of work [they] could find" category.

While the number of workers taking

contingent jobs for economic reasons was

declining, the number and share citing

personal reasons were rising. These reasons

include family obligations, flexibility of work

schedule, and being in school. In 1995, 41

percent of contingent workers reported such

personal reasons for accepting a contingent

job. By 1997, more than 48 percent of

contingent workers cited personal reasons.

These comparisons indicate that contingency

was more likely to be voluntary in 1997 than

in 1995.

The decline in contingency was widespread. Contingency rates for men and

women declined by half a percentage point,

in line with the fall in the total. Among the

major race and ethnic groups, the rate for

black workers’ fell by a full percentage point,

while rates for white and Hispanic workers

were virtually unchanged. Among the nine

major occupational groups, contingency rates

fell in six, rose in two, and was unchanged in

one. Among the 10 major industry divisions,

contingency fell in 5, rose in 3, and was little

changed in 2. The fall in contingency was

widespread among industries and occupations

and evenly spread among men and women.

Job tenure. To analyze employment security,

analysts often use statistics on tenure with

one’s current employer and data on job

displacement. The most recent report on

tenure found that the overall median tenure had

risen slightly by the mid-1990s. The rise was

very uneven across gender lines, suggesting

that men may feel slightly less secure while

women may feel a bit more secure. Tenure

data, however, must be analyzed carefully in

studies of job security. For example, in the

mining industry, which has undergone major

structural changes, employment dropped by

300,000 between 1983 and 1996 while median

tenure rose from 3.4 to 6.1 years.

Displacement. Between 1991-92, about 2.8

1

 The Current Population Survey (CPS) supplements

used to create these estimates were intended to identify contingent workers—those who do not have an

implicit or explicit contract for ongoing employment.

The questions in the CPS also provide a useful approach to measuring job security.

The definition of a contingent worker is any

individual with an explicitly temporary job and

anyone who does not think they could continue to

work for their employer for as long as they wish,

assuming their work performance remains adequate

and economic conditions stay the same.

Wage and salary workers were asked the

following questions:

• Some people are in temporary jobs that only

last for a limited time or until the completion

of a project. Is your job temporary?

• Provided the economy does not change and

your job performance is adequate, can you

continue to work for your current employer as

long as you wish?

Self-employed workers and independent

contractors were asked a separate set of questions

and were classified as contingent if they had been

working under that arrangement for a year or less

and expected to remain in that arrangement for a

year or less.
 The contingent worker supplements to the

CPS provide insights on workers’ perceptions

of employment security. Despite concerns

about job security in today’s economy, recent

contingency data suggests job security is

increasing. Rising security is supported by

data on reasons for contingent work and is

widespread among sex, occupation, and

industry groups. A sense of rising security is

also consistent with the low unemployment

rate in 1997 and with earlier declines in

displacement.

An earlier version of this report appeared

in Monthly Labor Review, March 1998. For

additional information on the contingent work

force and job security, contact Richard M.

Devens, Jr., Office of Publications and Special

Studies, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Room

2850, 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE, Washington, DC 20212. Telephone (202) 606-5865;

E-mail: Devens_R@bls.gov

Material in this report is in the public

domain and, with appropriate credit, may be

reproduced without permission. This

information is available to sensory impaired

individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202)

606-7828; TDD phone: (202) 606-5897; TDD

message referral phone: 1-800-3326-2577.

rate fell from 3.9 percent to 3.2 percent. This

decline may indicate some degree of improved

job security. These data also conform to a

tendency of displacement rates to rise and fall

with unemployment rates. For the first

quarters of 1995 and 1997, the jobless rates

were 5.5 and 5.3 percent, respectively. In

comparison, the unemployment rate average

7.5 percent in 1992.

Percent of workers holding contingent jobs by occupation and industry, February 1995 and

February 1997

Occupation and industry February 1995 February 1997

Total ....................................................................... 4.9 4.4

Occupation

Executive, administrative, and managerial .......... 2.7 2.2

Professional specialty ........................................... 6.8 6.1

Technicians and related support .......................... 4.2 4.8

Sales occupations ................................................. 2.6 2.1

Administrative support, including clerical ............ 5.8 5.9

Services ................................................................. 5.8 5.0

Precision production, craft, and repair ................. 4.6 4.2

Operators, fabricators and laborers ..................... 5.4 4.4

Farming, forestry, and fishing ............................... 5.6 5.9

Industry

Agriculture ............................................................. 5.0 5.3

Mining .................................................................... 2.7 3.6

Construction .......................................................... 8.4 7.1

Manufacturing ........................................................ 3.1 2.2

Transportation and public utilities ......................... 3.0 2.6

Wholesale trade .................................................... 2.3 2.1

Retail trade ............................................................ 3.0 2.5

Finance, insurance, and real estate ..................... 2.0 2.1

Services ................................................................. 7.5 6.7

Public administration ............................................. 3.6 4.2