Computerized Manufacturing Automation:

Employment, Education, and the Workplace

April 1984

NTIS order #PB84-196500
Recommended Citation:

Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, OTACIT-235, April 1984).

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 84-601053

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents

U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402
Foreword

This assessment culminates OTA’S examination of the technical, economic,

and social issues surrounding the spread of programmable automation in manufacturing. Its genesis was a public workshop in 1981 on robotics that resulted in

the OTA Background Paper entitled Exploratory Workshop on the Social Implications of Robotics (February 1982). The assessment was requested by the Joint

Economic Committee, the Senate Committee on Labor and Human Resources,

the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and the Subcommittee on Labor Standards of the House Committee on Education and Labor.

It was endorsed by the House Committee on Science and Technology. The assessment looks not only at robots but also at related computer-based technologies

for design, production, and management.

The technologies of programmable automation, their uses, and future capabilities are described in this report. The assessment goes beyond technology description to characterize the industries producing and using programmable automation and to discuss the ramifications of the technologies for industrial structure

and competitive conduct. It pays special attention to three labor-related areas:

the potential for employment change, effects on the work environment, and implications for education and training. Preliminary work in those areas, including

conceptual discussions and background material, was published in the OTA Technical Memorandum entitled Automation and the Workplace: Selected Labor,

Education, and Training Issues (March 1983). Since the development and sale of

programmable automation have been international phenomena since at least the

1960’s, comparisons between this country and others are made as far as data allow.

A wide range of sources contributed to this assessment. While OTA drew on

existing literature and conferences, it also developed its own information through

workshops on labor markets, programmable automation technologies, and prog ammable automation (producer) industries; and through informal site visits and

consultations. Eighteen case studies, including 4 on the work environment and

14 on education and training programs, and a survey of education and training

activities commissioned for this assessment were particularly rich sources of data.

Case study material will be made available in a companion volume.

OTA is grateful for the assistance of the assessment advisory panel, workshop

participants, contractors, and many others who provided advice, information, and

reviews. The cooperation of individuals at case study sites, who accommodated

lengthy site visits and follow-up consultations, is especially appreciated. OTA

assumes full responsibility for this assessment, which does not necessarily represent the views of individual members of the advisory panel.

Director

///
Computerized Manufacturing Automation Advisory Panel

Roy Amara, Chairman

President, Institute for the Future

William D. Beeby

President

William Beeby & Associates, Inc.

Erich Bloch

Vice President, Technical Personnel

Development

IBM Corp.

Barbara A. Burns

Manufacturing Technology Group Engineer

Lockheed Georgia

Jack Cahall

Manager, Training and Development

Cincinnati Milacron, Inc.

Dennis Chamot

Assistant Director

Department of Professional Employees

AFL-CIO

Robert Cole

Director, Center for Japanese Studies

University of MichiganAlan E. Drane

Manager of Automated Systems

Emhart Corp.

Audrey Freedman

Senior Research Associate

The Conference Board, Inc.

Sheldon Friedman

Director, Research Department

United Auto Workers

Theodore W. Kheel, Esq.

of Counsel

Battle, Fowler, Jaffin & Kheel

James F. Lardner

Vice President, Governmental Products and

Component Sales

Deere & Co.

Eli Lustgarten

Vice President

Paine Webber Mitchell Hutchins, Inc.

M. Granger Morgan

Professor, Engineering and Public Policy

Carnegie-Mellon University

George J. Poulin

General Vice President

International Association of Machinists and

Aerospace Workers

Bernard M. Sallot

President

Advanced Technologies Group Services

Harley Shaiken

Research Fellow

Massachusetts Institute of Techology

Kevin G. Snell

Director, Forward Planning and Program

Development

Career Works, IncAlfred P. Taylor

Vice President (retired)

General Electric Co.

Philippe Villers

President

Automatix, Inc.

Victor C. Walling, Jr.

Coordinator, Business Futures Program

SRI International

Dennis Wisnosky

Vice President

GCA Corp.

Michael Wozny

Director, Center for Interactive Computer

Graphics

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Robert Zager

Vice President, Policy Studies and Technical

Assistance

Work in America Institute

NOTE: OTA appreciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by these advisory panel

members. The views expressed in this OTA Report, however, are the sole responsibility of the Office of Technology Assessment.-

iv
.

OTA Manufacturing Automation Assessment Staff

John Andelin, Assistant Director, OTA

Science, Information, and Natural Resources Division

Frederick W. Weingarten, Communications and Information Technologies Program Manager

Project Staff

Marjory S. Blumenthal, Project Director*

Beth A. Brown, Senior Analyst

Jean E. Smith, Analyst

Jim Dray, Research Assistant

Beth Glassner, Research Analyst

Administrative Staff

Liz Emanuel Marsha Williams Shirley Gayheart

Contractors and Consultants

Eileen Appelbaum

N. Jeanne Argoff

Industry and Trade Strategies

Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Harley Shaiken, Sarah Kuhn, and Steve Herzenberg

WESTAT

Courtland S. Lewis (editor)

*Zalman A. Shaven served as Project Director from April to August 1982

v
Automation Technology Workshop

David Grossman

Manager of Automation Research

IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center

Robert Hocken

Chief, Automated Production Technology

Division

National Bureau of Standards

Stuart G. Miller

Manager, Automation and Control Laboratory

Corporate Research and Development

General Electric Co.

Brian Moriarty

FMS Specialist

Charles Stark Draper Laboratories

Richard Mueller

Senior Consultant, CAD/CAM

Control Data Corp.

Michael Radeke

Vice President, Robotics

Cincinnati Milacron, Inc.

Automation Industries Workshop

Kenneth Anderson

Publisher

Anderson Reports

Laura Conigliaro

Vice President

Prudential-Bache Securities, Inc.

Joseph Franklin

Statistical Director

National Machine Tool Builders Association

Bernard Roth

Design Division, Mechanical Engineering

Department

Stanford University

Ali Seireg

Department of Mechanical Engineering

University of Wisconsin-Madison

Richard Simon

Director, Product Management

CAM Systems

Computervision Corp.

Theodore J. Williams

Director, Laboratory for Applied Industrial

Control

Purdue University

Carl Machover

President

Machover Associates Corp.

Bernard M. Sallot

President

Advance Technologies Group Services

Dennis Wisnosky

Vice President

GCA Corp.

Eli Lustgarten

Vice President

Paine Webber Mitchell Hutchins, Inc.

vi
Labor Markets and Industrial Relations

Eileen Appelbaum

Department of Economics

Temple University

Steven Confer

Consultant

Communications Workers of America

William Cooke

Krannert School of Management

Purdue University

Faye Duchin

Institute for Economic Analysis

New York University

Alan Fechter

Executive Director

Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel

National Research Council

Sheldon Friedman

Director, Research Department

United Auto Workers -

Reviewers and Other

Roger S. Albrandt, Jr.

Contributors

Associate Director and Professor

School of Social Work

University of Pittsburgh

Robert Ayres

Professor, Engineering and Public Policy

Carnegie-Mellon University

Robert W. Bednarzik

Department of Labor

Bureau of International Labor Affairs

J. Terence Carleton

Analyst

Kidder, Peabody & Co., Inc.

Eileen Collins

Office of Policy, Research, and Analysis

National Science Foundation

Robert Craig

Vice President

American Society for Training and Development

Frank Curtin

General Manager, Factory Automation Systems

General Electric Co.

Edward Czarnecki

Associate Director

AFL-CIO Education Department

Workshop

Louis Jacobson

Center for Naval Analyses

Michael Pilot

Manager, Office of Occupational Outlook

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Markley Roberts

Economist

AFL-CIO

Myron Roomkin

Kellogg School of Management

Northwestern University

Jim Smith

Labor and Population Program

Rand Corp.

Kenneth R. Edwards

Director

Skill Improvement Training Department

International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers

Joel Fadem

Senior Fellow

Center for Quality of Working Life

University of California, Los Angeles

James Fleck

Lecturer

Technology Policy Unit

University of Aston (U. K.)

Barry Haimes

Analyst

Kidder, Peabody & Co., Inc.

David Hardt

Department of Mechanical Engineering

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Eric Hendrix

International Affairs Analyst

Central Intelligence Agency

Daniel M. Hull

President

Center for Occupational Research and

Development

vii
H. Allan Hunt

Manager for Research

The W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment

Research

Timothy L. Hunt

Labor Economist

The W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment

Research

G. Patrick Johnson

Division of Policy Research and Analysis

National Science Foundation

Ronald Larsen

Computer Science and Electronics Office

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Lloyd Lehn

Assistant for Manufacturing Technology

Department of Defense

M. Eugene Merchant

Director, Advanced Manufacturing Research

Metcut Associates

Steven Miller

Graduate School of Industrial Administration

Carnegie-Mellon University

OTA Reviewers

Randolph E. ROSS

Analyst

Kidder, Peabody & Co., Inc.

Robert Schrank

Independent Consultant

(formerly with Ford Foundation)

Walter Schuelke

Manager, Sub-systems

Manufacturing Engineering

IBM- Poughkeepsie

Warren Seering

Department of Mechanical Engineering

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Ben Shneiderman

Director, Human-Computer Interaction

Laboratory

University of Maryland

George Silvestri

Labor Economist

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Donald Vincent

Executive Director

Robot Institute of America

John Alic

Eric Bazques

Linda Garcia

Martha Harris

Barry Holt

Donna Valtri

Fred Wood

Vlll
Contents

Chapter

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Programmable Automation Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Effects of Programmable Automation unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment .

Education, Training, and Retraining Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Programmable Automation Industries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Research and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

International Support for Programmable Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Policy Issues and Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Appendix A—Selected Case Studies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Page

3

25

33

101

179

219

269

307

337

367

401

467
Chapter 1

Summary ,
Contents

Page

Principal Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

The Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Employment Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Work Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Education, Training and Retraining Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Programmable Automation Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Research and Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

International Policy Comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Implications for Federal Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Policy Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Specific Policy Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Tables

Table No. Page

1. Programmable Automation: Selected Projections for

Solution of Key Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

2. 1980 Employment for All Manufacturing Industries,

Selected PA-Sensitive Occupations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

3. Federal Funding of Research and Developmentin

Programmable Automation, Fiscal Year 1984. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Chapter 1

Summary

Computer technology offers new opportunities to enhance and streamline manufacturing

processes. Many industry observers believe

that computerized manufacturing automation

will help troubled U.S. manufacturers become

more productive and competitive. At the same

time, this new wave of automation is raising

concerns similar to those that accompanied

the first wave of automation technology in the

1950’s and 1960’s. Will the new technologies

put a significant number of people out of

work? Will their introduction “dehumanize”

the work environment for those who remain?

And how can the United States best prepare

its education and training system to respond

to the growing use of computerized manufacturing automation?

Though manufacturing automation technologies can be applied in a wide range of industries, the focus of this report is the application of programmable automation (PA) in discrete manufacturing-the manufacture of discrete products ranging from bolts to aircraft.

Most traditional metalworking industries fall

in this category, although other materials (e.g.,

plastics, fiber composites, ceramics) are increasingly important parts of discrete manufacturing as well. Discrete manufacturing

plants are often characterized by the quantity of a product which they produce, ranging

from mass production of hundreds of thousands of products, to batch production of a few

dozen or a few hundred, to custom production

of a single item. Because of its ability to perform a variety of tasks, programmable automation is usually associated with batch production. However, it has been used extensively

in mass production, and it could be useful in

custom production as well.

PA tools differ from conventional automation primarily in their use of computer and

communications technology. They are thus

able to perform information processing as well

as physical work, to be reprogrammed for a variety of tasks, and to communicate directly with

other computerized devices. PA is divided into

three general categories: 1) computer-aided

design; 2) computer-aided manufacturing (e.g.,

robots, computerized machine tools, flexible

manufacturing systems); and 3) computer-aided

techniques for management (e.g., management

information systems and computer-aided planning). When used together in a system with

extensive computer-based coordination, these

tools are known as computer-integrated manufacturing.

Three principal themes have emerged from

OTA’S study:

1. Programmable automation is an importan; and powerful set of tools, but it is

not a panacea for problems in manufacturing. In part because of historic U.S.

strengths in manufacturing, and because

the prestige of manufacturing engineering is low relative to other engineering

fields, U.S. companies have devoted relatively little effort to improving manufacturing processes in the past few decades.

This neglect must be remedied in order to

realize the full benefits of PA. In addition

to using automation, other steps that

need consideration by management include redesigning products for more efficient production, minimizing inventory

levels, and improving job design and labor

relations.

2.The change in national employment induced by programmable automation will

not be massive in the near term (i.e., the

remainder of the 1980’s). Although the

rate of application is accelerating, aggregate use will still be relatively limited for

the rest of this decade. Also, the capabilities of PA remain immature. Depending

on macroeconomic conditions, use of automation can increase without significant

growth in national unemployment. However, PA will exacerbate unemployment

3
4 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—.-— —

problems for individuals and regions. The

potential long-term impact of PA on the

number and kind of jobs available is enormous, and it is essential that the Federal

Government, educational institutions,

and industry begin to plan with these considerations in mind.

3. The impact of programmable automation

on the work environment is one of the most

significant, yet largely neglected issues. De

pending on how it is designed and used,

PA can substantially change the nature

and organization of the manufacturing

workplace, and consequently influence

levels of job satisfaction, stress, skills,

and productivity. The Federal Government has traditionally had a role in workplace concerns, and could take action to

help ensure that the work environment effects of PA are favorable.

Principal Findings

The Technologies

This report emphasizes five of the PA technologies. Computer-aided design (CAD) in its

simpler forms is an electronic drawing board

for draftsmen and design engineers. In its

more sophisticated forms CAD is the core of

computer-aided engineering, allowing engineers to analyze a design and maximize a product performance using the computerized representation of the product.

Industrial robots are manipulators which

can be programed to move objects along various paths. Though robots receive a great deal

of popular attention, they are only a small part

Photo credit C/nc/rtnat/ Mi/acron Corp.

An engineer using a computer-aided design system

of the family of PA tools. Numerically controlled (NC) machine tools are devices that cut

or form a piece of metal according to programed instructions about the desired dimensions of a part and the steps for the process.

Flexible manufacturing systems (FMSS) combine a set of workstations (usually NC machine

tools) with robots or other devices to move material between workstations, and operate

under central computer control. Finally, the

use of PA tools for design, manufacturing, and

management in an integrated system, with

maximum coordination and communication

between them, is termed computer-integrated

manufacturing (CIM).

The advantages of PA for management lie

primarily in its ability to facilitate information

flow, coordinate factory operations, and increase

efficiency and flexibility. Further, the technologies promise an increase in management de

gree of control over operations. The more close

ly tied manufacturing processes are to one

another, and the more information about those

processes is readily available, the less chance

there is for human error or discretion to cause

problems. However, this drive toward increased control can also reduce opportunities

for constructive worker input and degrade the

work environment.

Each of these technologies is in a relatively

early stage of development, and even earlier

stages of application. Robotics is well established only for spot welding, spray painting,
—

— -.

and some materials handling uses; NC machine tools and CAD are somewhat more mature technically, although there are still many

unsolved problems. FMS and CIM are very

young; virtually every application is a prototype. As systems, their potential benefits and

problems are much greater than those of

stand-alone automation equipment. Because

of their complexity, the implementation of integrated automation systems requires extensive planning and support.

Though current technology is adequate for the

vast majority of near-term uses, the level of penetration of PA into possible applications is relatively low. Technical factors that tend to slow

the rate of adoption of PA technologies include

its complexity, the lack of standard programing languages and interfaces between PA devices, and problems in “human factors” (essentially, the system’s ease of use). A wide

variety of nontechnical factors also affect the

use of PA, including the availability of capital

and know-how, organizational resistance to

change, and the availability of appropriate education and training programs.

For various reasons, most manufacturers

choose to apply automation in a stepwise fashion, beginning perhaps with one or a small

number of robots, CAD terminals, or NC machine tools. Though in many cases these

“islands of automation” can result in productivity and quality improvements, the full benefits of PA are only realized when these devices are connected into an integrated system.

Such integrated systems are more than the

accumulated substitution of PA tools for

human workers or for other machines; they

often involve redesigning the product or

streamlining the production process itself to

best make use of PA. Because an integrated

system can produce more products more

quickly than other manufacturing schemes,

manufacturers can reduce their investment in

finished product and work-in-process inventories. These and other materials savings are

often more significant than labor savings in the

use of programmable automation systems.

Ch. l—Summary ● 5

.- — — .

Researchers are working to increase the versatility and power of PA tools, to enhance

their capability to operate without human intervention, and to develop the ability to integrate the tools. While there has been progress in virtually all key technical areas, the

problems are sufficiently numerous and complex to keep researchers busy for many years

to come. An analysis of expected trends in the

technologies indicates, however, that many important technical advances in programmable

automation are expected in the 1990’s (see table

1).

Though there is much discussion of “unmanned factories, ” experts differ about whether the removal of virtually all humans from the

manufacturing process is necessary or desirable. Some express concern that manufacturers will be preoccupied with removing humans

from the factory floor at the expense of more

practical and cost-effective improvements in

manufacturing processes. In any case, each

factory has peculiar characteristics which call

for different levels of automation. For some

factories it has been possible to run machine

tools at night with only one person in a control room. For at least the next 10 to 15 years,

discrete manufacturing factories operating without production workers (i.e., with only a few

managers, designers, and troubleshooters) will

be only a remote possibility.

Employment Effects

Programmable automation is not likely to

generate significant net national unemployment in the near term, but its use may exacerbate regional unemployment problems, especially in the East North Central and Middle

Atlantic areas where metalworking industries

are concentrated.

The level of automation in manufacturing

is one of many factors that influence industrial

employment. In particular, it should be recognized that employment in an industry is a strong

function of the volume of production. Technol-
6 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 1 .—Programmable Automation: Selected Projections for Solution of Key Problems

(excerpts from tables 11-15–of full report)

Current (1984)

1)

2)

3)

4)

5)

6)

Low-cost, powerful microcomputer-based

workstations for:a

a) electronics design . . . . . . . . . . . . . A

b) mechanical design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3-D vision in structured environments

which have been planned to simplify the

vision task . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3-D vision in unstructured complex

environments which have not been

planned to simplify the vision task . . . . . .

FMS for:b

a) cylindrical parts production . . . . . . . .

b) sheet metal parts production . . . . . . .

c) 3-D mechanical assembly . . . . . . . . A

d) electronics assembly. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Standardization of interfaces between

wide range of computerized devices in an

integrated factory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Computerized factories which could run

on a day-to-day basis with only a few

people in management. design functions .

1985-86

●

A

, ,

aMlcrocom Duter.~sed workstations for CAD are now being marketed, but in the iudment of technic;

1987-90

A

■

A

experts consultec

1991-2000 2001 and beyond

A

y OTA, they are either not powerful enough

and/or not !nexpems!ve enough to be useful i n a wide va~iety of applications, ‘ -

bAlmost all FMSS currently ru~nlng are used to machine prismatic parts (e.g., engine blocks), which are those whose outer shape COnSiStS primarily of flat surfaces

The projections in this entry refer to FMS for quite different applications: a) machining of cylindrical park, such as rotors and dr!veshafts (or “parts of rotation, ”

in machining jargon, since they are generally made on lathes); b) stamping and bending of sheet metal parts, such as car body panels; c) assembly (as opposed to

fabrication of individual parts) of three-dimensional products, such as motors, and d) assembly of electronic devices, such as circuit boards ‘while machines currently

exist for automatic insertion of electronic parts into circuit boards, an electronics FMS would integrate the insertion devices with soldering and testing equipment

A = solution in laboratories.

● = first commercial applications

● = solutlon wideiy and easily available (requlrlng minimal custom engineering for each appllcatlon)

SOURCE’ OTA analysis and compilation of data from technology experts

ogy is a secondary influence that governs the

mix of people, equipment, and materials

needed to produce a given amount of product.

Hence, although PA is labor-saving, the aggre

gate number of jobs in an economy must be

examined in the context of overall economic

conditions. These conditions include shortterm business cycles as well as long-term

shifts in the strengths and structures of different industries, plus levels of imports and

exports. Thus, the favorable effects of PA on

industrial competitiveness may help to increase demand for labor or help to avert job

losses that could occur in its absence.

Evaluating the employment effects of PA

poses serious analytical problems. There are

shortcomings in current approaches for this

analysis, and data available support only inferences as to the general directions of likely occupational and industry employment change.

Employment change will depend on a series

of complex effects on jobs. Those effects will

be realized as changes in the tasks that people will do, changes in the requirements for

skill, and changes in the ways managers aggre

gate tasks into jobs and assign them to people trained for different occupations. The scope

of change may be neither obvious nor immediate, because PA will often be accompanied

by significant transformations of manufacturing organization, production processes, and/or

product design. The more extensive such

transformations, the broader the set of people affected by the introduction of PA, and the

harder it is to attribute employment effects

to PA, per se.

Change in skill requirements will often reflect a shift from manual to mental work. In

many cases, PA will lower the time required

for people to become proficient at a task, and

it may lower the amount of judgment needed.

At the same time, it may lead to a requirement

for general knowledge of several tasks, broadening the mix of skills needed. For example,

it is likely that PA maintenance personnel will

need to know how to solve mechanical, elec-
.

Ch. l—Summary ● 7

— .

trical, and electronic problems rather than one

class of problems alone.

The fewer the tasks comprising a job, the

more likely it is that programmable automation can eliminate the need for a given job. For

example, spot welders who only do spot welding, are more likely to be displaced by spotwelding robots than if they do other tasks as

well. However, PA offers new potential for

combining diverse tasks into jobs instead of

fragmenting work into narrowly defined jobs,

as has historically been associated with mechanization. It raises the prospect of a tradeoff

between larger numbers of narrowly defined

jobs and smaller numbers of more broadly

defined jobs.

A major influence on employment is the supply of labor, which will grow more slowly during the next decade or so, in large part because

of slower growth of the population and an increase in the average age. The supply of

younger workers will decline, diminishing competition for entry-level jobs, while the proportion and number of primeage workers (25 to

54 years) will grow.

From early indications, it appears that PA

will cause the following broad, long-term

trends in occupations:

demand for engineers and computer scientists, technicians, and mechanics, repairers,

and installers on the whole will rise—

although specific occupations (e.g., drafters) will face diminishing opportunities;

demand for craftworkers (excluding mechanics), operatives, and laborers-especially the least skilled doing the most routine

work—will fall;

demand for clerical personnel will fall; and

demand for upper-level managers and technical sales and service personnel will rise,

although lower- and middle-management

opportunities among users of PA may

fall.

Table 2 lists 1980 levels of employment for occupations most likely to experience changes

in demand. Taken together, these effects suggest major shifts in the occupational mix of

manufacturing industries, especially metalworking. Overall, the salaried or white-collar

work force will constitute a larger proportion of

manufacturing employment, although it is not

clear how much their ranks will grow in absolute terms. PA producers especially are likely to employ relatively few production personnel; their situation may signal future patterns

among other firms and industries. Consequently, there will be few opportunities for people displaced from other manufacturing industries to move into jobs among producers of automated equipment and systems.

In many ways, the shifts in occupations will

not be straightforward. Some skills may only

be required temporarily, after technology has

been introduced but before further automation

is achieved. For example, when automated

equipment is used in isolated applications,

there may be many needs for programing. But,

the integration of design with process planning and production systems reduces the need

for programing, as does the development of

standard, easy-to-use software packages.

These “short-term” phenomena may persist

for many years, making it hard to plan for

long-term employment change.

The effects of PA on compensation patterns

are ambiguous, partly because numerous other

changes are occurring in the economy. Over

the past decade, there appears to have been

an erosion of medium-wage jobs, and clustering of jobs at both high- and low-wage levels.

Analysts attribute this in part to the proliferation of low-wage service jobs, and in part

to growing separation of administrative and

production functions in manufacturing. PA

will likely stem the latter trend by helping to

integrate administrative and production activities. Other developments, such as slower

growth in the labor force participation of

women (who filled the bulk of the new, lowpaying service jobs created in the past decade),

may also serve to alter past trends.

Finally, compensation patterns will depend

on the length of the average work week. Whenever it appears that there may not be enough
8 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 2.—1980 Employment for All Manufacturing Industries,

Selected PA-Sensitive Occupations

Long-term direction

Number Percent of change

Engineers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 579,677

Electrical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173,647

Industrial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,442

Mechanical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122,328

Engineering and science technicians . . . . . . 439,852

Drafters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116,423

NC tool programmers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,371

Computer programmers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58,622

Computer systems analysts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42,404

Adult education teachers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,165

Managers, officials, and proprietors. . . . . . . . . 1,195,743

Clerical workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,297,379

Production clerks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139,947

Craft and related workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,768,395

Electricians. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126,001

Maintenance mechanics and repairers . . . . 391,524

Machinists, tool and die makers . . . . . . . . . . 356,435

Inspectors and testers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538,275

Operatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,845,318

Assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,661,150

Metalworking operatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,470,169

Welders and flamecutters . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400,629

Production painters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106,178

Industrial truck operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269,105

Nonfarm laborers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,576,576

Helpers, trades. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,752

Stockhandlers, order fillers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,208

Work distributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,895

Conveyor operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,469

NOTE Data pertain Iowage and salary workers

2.85

0.85

0.35

0.60

2.16

0.57

0.05

0.29

0.21

0.03

5.87

11.28

0.69

18.51

0.62

1.92

1.75

2.64

43.44

8.16

7.22

1.97

0.52

1.32

7.74

0.49

0.51

0.08

0.15

+

+

+

+

+—

—

+

+

?—

—

+

+

.

SOURCE Bureau of Labor Statlsttcs “Employment by Industry and Occupation, 1980 and Projected 1990 Alternatives, ” un.

publ!shed data

jobs, or enough well-paying jobs, to occupy

job-seekers, it is often proposed that average

work hours be reduced to allow more people

to hold jobs. However, the average work week

cannot necessarily be reduced without lowering the real wages per employee.

In light of the attention given to the Japanese, who use PA extensively and who have

expanded production, it is instructive to see

how their work force has been affected. Japanese companies have displaced labor, but

displacement has often been masked by shifting relationships between manufacturers and

suppliers, and by selective layoffs that affect

primarily female, middle-aged, and older personnel.

Work Environment

Application of computers to the manufacturing workplace offers a range of options for

organizing work in ways that will enhance the

workplace. PA, in particular, provides the potential to achieve a better balance between the

economic considerations that determine technological choices and the social consequences

of those choices in the workplace. Although

historically U.S. manufacturers have tended to

place a lower priority on work environment

issues, there is a growing awareness among manufacturers that attention to the work environment ultimately has payoffs in productivity.

Work environment issues may become more

important to the public, meanwhile, as chang-
——.— —— —.-

Ch. l—Summary ● 9

. . . . . —. — .-—

ing employment patterns reduce the opportunities for personnel to move out of unsatisfactory manufacturing jobs into others.

The various forms of PA have both positive

and negative effects on the safety and health

of workers. The introduction of programmable

automation will create new situations, or perpetuate old ones, that have negative psychological effects on the work force. Two of the principal effects are boredom and stress. Boredom

and stress in the automated workplace can result from the characteristics of the design of

the technical system and work organization,

as well as from such factors as lot size and the

nature of the product manufactured. In sites

visited for OTA work environment case studies, it was evident that both FMSS and NC

Phofo credit Cic M//acron Corp

A “machining cell, consisting of computerized robots and machine tools, manufactures printing press parts
IO ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace — ——————— —— — — . ——

machine tools can cause boredom when there

is no immediate need for operator intervention

and application of problem-solving skills. In

addition, skilled NC operators who did not

write programs reported that operating an NC

machine was significantly less challenging

than operating a conventional machine.

Work-related stress is a significant feature of

computer-automated workplaces. Stress is associated with working on very complicated, expensive, and highly integrated systems, and

with lack of autonomy at work, extending in

some cases to computerized monitoring by

management. The combination of the complexity of the system and the pressure to minimize

downtime because of the high cost of lost production adds up to substantial stress for some

maintenance workers. Although each situation

is different, excessive boredom and/or stress

can often degrade the productivity of individual workers.

On the other hand, the introduction of programmable automation tends to have a favorable impact on the physical surroundings of

work. For instance, robots are amenable to

hazardous tasks in environments that are unpleasant and unhealthy for workers. However,

certain precautions are necessary to avoid

potential new safety hazards. In response to

concerns about robot safety, groups in the

United States, Western Europe, and Japan are

providing guidelines for the safe use of robots.

Since the introduction of PA will increase

the number of workers using video display terminals (VDTS) and reduce the number operating production machinery, the concerns that

are currently being raised about potential

VDT hazards apply to a whole new set of

workers, including CAD operators. Although

there is no evidence that VDTS emit unsafe

levels of radiation or that VDT use is hazardous to vision, increased stress levels due to

prolonged use of VDTS have been reported,

and further study of the long-term effects of

VDT use is necessary.

Overall, the potential physical hazards appear

to be more amenable to solution than some of

——

the psychological ones because they are more

easily recognized and less subject to the subtleties of individual personalities. The relief of

such symptoms as boredom and stress is more

difficult, because they are not well understood

and are often complicated by other factors not

related to the workplace. Depending on how

tasks are arranged and jobs designed, programmable automation has the potential to decrease

the amount of autonomy, control, and challenge

available to the worker, or it can increase variety and decisionmaking opportunities.

Management’s strategies and motivations for

introducing programmable automation are key

in determining its impacts. In addition, the nature of labor-management relations will affect

the implementation of new technology and its

consequences for the work environment. In

work environments that are-becoming more

and more automated, management is likely to

seek increasing flexibility in deploying workers. This will be reflected in collective bargaining demands from management for changing

work rules, in return for union demands for

such employee benefits as job security. Formal labor-management cooperation in solving

workplace problems has been growing in the

United States. Where successful, these participative arrangements are likely to have a positive influence on the effects of new technology

in the workplace, especially in the areas of job

design, changing skills, and training.

In Europe and Japan, mechanisms for dealing with workplace concerns have generally

been applied to the introduction of new technology. In many cases laws specify how such

introduction is to be handled. For example, the

laws of West Germany, Norway, and Sweden

provide for worker involvement in technological change, and labor is routinely represented

on corporate boards. It is important, however,

to point out that the culture and traditions of

Europe and Japan regarding attitudes and

practices in the workplace differ from those

of the United States, especially in the area of

labor-management relations. These differences

limit the transferability of foreign practices.
..———

Ch. I—Summary ● 1 1

Education, Training, and

Retraining Issues

Programmable automation is one of a number of forces that will reshape instructional

services in the United States in the years

ahead and create new demands for high-quality education, training, and retraining programs, as well as career guidance, job counseling, and placement services.

A prerequisite of PA-related instruction of all

types is a strong foundation of basic skills-particularly reading, science, and math. The high

level of functional illiteracy in the United States

population is a major barrier to development of

PA-related skills. Basic skills deficiencies have

already surfaced as a problem in retraining

some displaced manufacturing workers for

jobs working with PA.

Analytical and problem-solving skills are increasing in importance for some skilled trades

personnel and technicians, as well as other

occupational groups common to automated

facilities. Many who work with PA find themselves using conceptual skills more than motor

skills. However, it is uncertain to what extent

PA will require a substantial increase in the

aggregate level of problem-solving and conceptual skill. As noted earlier, choices for implementing the technology can result in wide

variations in worker input and control, and

consequently a range of skill requirements.

Development of multiple skills and the “crosstraining” of workers to perform a variety of

functions on the shop floor are emerging instructional requirements for automated facilities,

although not reflected as yet in many established instructional programs. Beyond acquiring a familiarity with PA, engineers in automated facilities need to develop an understanding of the entire design-to-manufacturing

process and of how computerized equipment

may be integrated with other machines and

people for maximum efficiency and productivity. Continued industry pressure for more effective technical managers may well lead to

greater emphasis on the development of management skills in industrial engineering and

computer science education programs.

There is an immediate need for retraining and

job counseling programs geared to the unique

needs of displaced workers. In the past, many

programs for displaced workers have failed to

assess their existing competencies and provide

opportunities to strengthen basic skills. As a

result, participation rates have been low and

dropout rates high in such retraining

programs.

Ongoing changes in workplace skill requirements attributable to programmable automation and other factors point to the need for effective education and career guidance services

for youth and adults. Individuals need access

to current, reliable labor market information

in order to make informed career choices and

to pursue appropriate avenues of occupational

preparation. The potential for frequent job

change within the same economic sector or

across sectors suggests that the numbers of

adults seeking job counseling and placement

assistance will increase dramatically in the

years ahead. At present, there are few programs

that provide these kinds of education and career

guidance services to youth and adults on an

ongoing basis.

While some institutions and organizations

are providing PA instruction that addresses

current skills requirements of computer-automated facilities, there are as yet no standard

approaches to curriculum. A common characteristic of successful programmable automation

instructional programs examined by OTA was

close cooperation and collaboration among

educators, industry, labor, and government in

assessing needs, developing curricula, and other

activities.

On the whole, the U.S. instructional system

may not now be able to accommodate the potential demand for PA-related skills, which may in

turn affect the rate of growth in PA applications. Shortages of technical instructors, state

of-the-art equipment and other resources are

major problems for all segments of the instructional system, including industry-based education and training.
12 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Eloyment, Education, and the WorkPlace

Programmable Automation Industries

While PA industries vary in size, there appear to be several hundred vendors in all. PA

firms range from small companies supplying

products to meet specialized market niches,

to automation “supermarket” firms that offer multiple forms of PA. Many PA vendors

are so-called turnkey firms, which package

components made by different companies with

software and other features into standard or

customized systems. Small, innovative firms

have played a key role as PA producers.

CAD, NC, robots, and other PA equipment

and systems are sold by industries that are

more or less separate. NC is the oldest and

largest industry, dating from the 1950’s.

While CAD and robots were available by the

1960’s, significant markets for them did not

emerge until the 1970’s. Markets for other PA

products also began to flourish in the 1970’s.

Although they grew slowly during the

1960’s and early 1970’s, programmable automation markets grew rapidly in recent years and

are expected to continue to do so. Hence, it is

hard to describe firms and industries in enduring terms. Moreover, as individual companies

expand their product offerings and move to

offer complementary products, a market for

CIM may emerge. No one yet sells “CIM” as

a total product, and some in industry contend

that users are still pioneering the concept.

PA firms will affect the economy through

their relationships with other industries as

well as through their role as employers. Much

of their economic impact will be realized indirectly, since their principal customers are

other businesses that may use PA to improve

their own performance. Programmable automation industries are likely to become increasingly

important to the industrial base and national

security of the United States, because of increasing dependence on programmable automation

both to enhance manufacturing productivity

overall and to manufacture defense equipment.

Competition among PA firms tends to center on software and customer services rather

than on hardware features. This reflects

growth in sales of PA systems (as opposed to

single pieces of equipment). Indeed, PA vendors often rely on outside sources of hardware.

They are offering a growing number of preand post-sale services, including applications

engineering, training, maintenance, and software updates.

Programmable automation industries are

characterized by high levels of interchange between firms. Licensing, outsourcing, mergers

and acquisition, limited equity investments,

and joint ventures are common, and often occur between firms from different countries. In

this regard, PA industries are similar to the

overall information-processing and electronics

products industries. It is likely that vertical

integration will continue to be limited and cooperative arrangements will continue to be

made because new products are increasingly

complex, product changes occur rapidly, and

product development costs are growing. In the

long term, however, international cross-fertilization may abate in favor of direct foreign

investment.

In the near term, the growth of domestic producers of PA depends on whether domestic economic conditions are favorable to investment,

and on the ability of US. managers to justify

the necessary investments. Anticipated reductions in PA costs and growing understanding

among managers of the potential benefits and

costs of PA are likely to make companies increasingly receptive to PA. In the long term,

competition from foreign firms in domestic and

foreign markets may constrain the growth and

size of programmable automation industries.

Companies from many countries, often supported by foreign governments, have been involved in PA development and production

since the 1960’s, and many countries consider

PA industries important features of their

economies.

Research and Development

Both industry and government fund a broad

range of research and development (R&D) in

programmable automation. This work is un-
Ch. l—Summary ● 1 3 — —

dertaken in industry, university, and government laboratories.

Total Federal funding of automation R&Din

fiscal year 1984 is budgeted at approximately

$80 million through four primary Government

agencies–the Department of Defense (DOD),

the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and the National Bureau of

Standards (NBS) (see table 3). R&D at both

DOD and NASA is strongly mission-oriented

(directed toward a particular agency goal), and

it has limited applicability to commercial manufacturing. More generic or basic work is conducted through NSF and NBS.

DOD’s Manufacturing Technology Program

budgeted approximately $56 million in 1984

for work on automation technologies that

could save money in defense manufacturing.

Two other agencies within DOD, the Defense

Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)

and the Office of Naval Research (ONR),

budgeted approximately $8 million for research in PA technologies for ultimate use in

both defense manufacturing and battlefield

applications. Though DOD work in programmable automation is not intended to be widely

applicable to commercial manufacturing, DOD

sets themes for technology development in programmable automation. It serves as an informal

Table 3.— Federal Funding of Research and

Development in Programmable Automation,

Fiscal Year 1984 (dollars in millions)

Military agencies:

Manufacturing Technology (ManTech)

Program ... . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . $56.00

Defense Advanced Research Projects

Agency (DARPA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.50

Office of Naval Research (ONR) . . . . . 4.10

Military subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $63.60

Civilian agencies:

National Bureau of Standards (NBS). . . . . . $3.85

National Aeronautics and Space

Administration (NASA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.90

National Science Foundation (NSF) . . . . 6.90-9.20

Civilian subtotal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16.65 -18.95

Total Federal funding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $80.25 -82.55

SOURCE Off Ice of Technology Assessment –

coordination point for Government agencies and

defense industries.

NASA’s automation research concentrates

on robotic tools for use in space. The research

program is small and focused on technologies

that are very sophisticated by commercial

standards, though there are occasional spinoffs to commercial manufacturing.

NSF plays a small but important role in

funding basic research in PA. The Production

Research Program at NSF focuses on automation technologies, while at least a dozen other

programs within NSF fund automation-related research to some degree. Total funding

for 1984 is estimated to be about $7 million

to $9 million.

NBS has a rather unique role in automation

R&D in that it is the Government’s primary inhouse laboratory for such work. NBS pursues

automation R&D in standards (e.g., standardization of programing languages and standardization of interfaces between computerized

tools), metrology (measurement of parts using

computerized devices), and schemes for integrated manufacturing. NBS’ Automated Manufacturing Research Facility, funded largely

through DOD, is perhaps the only full-scale testing facility for CIM in the United States.

Estimates of CAD, robotics, and machine tool

industry funding of automation R&D range

from $264 million to $400 million in 1983, and

they grow rapidly in the future as the industries

expand. There is evidence of increased cooperation between industries and universities in the

conduct of automation R&D. In particular,

university-industry centers for R&D in programmable automation are proliferating.

The United States continues to be a world

leader in many areas of R&D, including computer-aided design, software in general, and virtually all areas of basic research. Japan has developed substantial sophistication in many

areas of robotics R&D, while Japan and West

Germany are both strong in machine tool research. Both Japan and Western European

countries also do significant research regarding manufacturing integration problems.

Western European countries, notably Sweden
74 ● computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

and West Germany, conduct substantial research in work environment issues, while these

issues receive only minimal attention in the

United States.

International Policy Comparisons

All of the major industrialized nations support the development and use of PA to some

extent. However, the lack of accurate, up-todate information about the details of foreign

government programs makes speculation

about their effectiveness extremely risky.

Historical differences in national characteristics have strongly affected PA use internationally. For both Japan and Western European countries, these characteristics include

a greater concern for cost reduction—presumably due to greater dependence on export markets, and to higher energy, materials, and

capital costs than those in the United States

prior to the 1970’s. These factors have led to

greater concern abroad for manufacturing

processes with less materials waste, better

product design, and low-cost production. The

fact that the United States now faces similar

constraints and a more competitive international environment is motivating U.S. manufacturers to focus more closely on manufacturing processes.

Government involvement in automation in

Japan is substantial, but it is less monolithic

than many believe. The influence of Japan’s

Ministry of International Trade and Industry

(MITI) on Japanese industry is ebbing,

although MITI continues to develop long-term

plans for technological development and to

target certain areas of technology for particular attention, such as robotics and microelectronics. Private industry expenditures comprise a greater percentage of total R&D

spending in Japan than in any other country,

in part due to the near absence of Japanese

Government R&D in defense. The Government has, however, played a substantial role

in encouraging application of new technologies

in small and medium-sized firms and in facilitating cooperative efforts among PA producers and users.

Like the United States, the West German

Government has no systematic industrial policy. It has played a large role in encouraging

private industry investment, however, and has

allocated large sums to semiautonomous research institutes and consortia which perform

R&D related to manufacturing. In addition,

the Government has established an Advanced

Manufacturing Technologies Program to promote the riskier forms of innovation in this

sector. Though the use of automation technologies in West Germany is not as extensive as

in the United States or Japan, the West Germans have characteristically good government-labor-management relations which facilitate the introduction of new technology.

Sweden and Norway have recently begun to

devote resources to PA in order to bolster economic growth. These countries are strong in

robotics, work environment research, and education and training programs.

The French Government has a firm commitment to faster development and diffusion

of PA, linking Government support to broadbased plans for restructuring French industries. Despite the availability of Government

funds and loans, however, industry has not

participated in Government programs to the

extent anticipated.

Although the British Government is less involved in domestic industry than the Japanese

or French, the United Kingdom has developed

a set of “schemes” to promote investments in

PA. These include loans and grants for consultants to help develop automation, and various mechanisms for support of industry and

university R&D.

Italy has no overall industrial policy, although it promotes private investment in its

underdeveloped southern regions. In addition,

Italy is rapidly becoming a major producer of

robots, and leading Italian firms have pioneered new applications.

Canada and the Netherlands have begun to

promote PA to further economic growth. They

have fledgling R&D programs and mechanisms for encouraging application of PA.
Ch. l—Summary ● 1 5

-—

Implications for Federal Policy

The overarching policy question that emerges

from this assessment is, “Should there be a national strategy for the development and use of

programmable automation?” The opportunities

and problems posed by PA are interconnected.

Successful policy regarding PA must therefore

mesh actions in several areas, something that

can only be achieved through a multifaceted

strategy. Further, the current uses and impacts of PA are a fraction of what they are expected to be in the long term. Thus, there is

an opportunity for anticipatory Federal policy.

The principal issues which motivate interest

in new policymaking include the relative immaturity of the technologies and lack of experience in their application; the fact that

other countries are stimulating development

and use of PA; the risk of unemployment

growth as a result of PA use, both regionally

and nationally; the risk of adverse effects on

the psychological aspects of the work environment; and the ramifications of PA for education, training, and retraining.

A policy strategy for PA would have to balance the interests of a large and diverse group

of stakeholders:

●

●

●

The developers and producers of PA are

primarily concerned with funding and facilities for R&D, as well as general economic policies which affect markets for

the technologies.

The users of PA focus on competition in

their product markets. While they tend

to resist government intervention in production and personnel areas, they call for

improvements in tax and trade laws and

other policies which influence the business

climate.

Members of the labor force care about

whether they can get and keep jobs, what

kind of jobs are open to them, and their

relations with management. While approximately 20 percent of the labor force

is represented by labor organizations, the

●

●

●

bulk of the working population has no

focused way to articulate its concerns.

Communities and State and local governments are particularly concerned about

economic development and maintaining

their employment base.

Educators and trainers are concerned

about the funding, equipment, and facilities available to them, as well as making

curricula responsive to new technologies

and skill needs.

Finally, the Federal Government has

broad-interests in the development and

application of PA, including its use for

building defense equipment, as well as its

effect on productivity, economic growth,

employment, and occupational safety and

health.

Policy Strategies

If the Federal Government chooses to coordinate activities in areas of technology development and use, employment, work environment,

and instruction, it can pursue one of four basic

strategies:

1. laissez-faire—a continuation of current

policies;

2. technology-oriented-emphasis on programmable automation development and use;

3. human resource-oriented-upfront attention

to education and training, work environment, and job creation; or

4. both technology- and human resourceoriented.

The principal uncertainties clouding projections are the rate of advance of the technologies, and the relative success of efforts abroad

to develop and apply PA and to increase sales

penetration in domestic and foreign markets.

The state of the economy is also a major and

uncertain influence.

The principal arguments for a laissez-faire

strategy are that additional Federal involvement may not be necessary for effective use
16 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the workplace

of PA, and that it may be too early in the application of PA to assess appropriate Federal

actions. The disadvantages of this strategy are

the risk that other countries may adopt and

benefit from PA faster than the United States,

and the risk of losing an opportunity to adopt

policies that could not only maximize the effective use of PA but also minimize negative

social consequences.

A technology-oriented strategy–bolstering

R&D as well as encouraging applications of

the technologies-could help avert a decline

in industrial output and employment caused

by competitive losses to foreign industries.

Other advantages of such a strategy are that

it would help ensure U.S. technological superiority, and it could bolster national security by

maintaining g a sound industrial base. However,

even if greater use of PA were a decisive competitive aid to U.S. firms, a strictly technology-oriented strategy could aggravate unemployment and work environment problems, as

well as strain the capacities of education and

training systems. The postponed costs of a

technology-oriented strategy, particularly for

assisting displaced workers, may offset some

of the potential economic benefits of such a

plan.

A human resource-oriented strategy would involve upfront investment in evaluating skill

requirements, tailoring education, training,

and retraining programs, and conducting research in relevant work environment and educational impacts of PA. Such a strategy could

stabilize or diminish future adjustment

assistance spending, and could prevent work

environment problems. While human resource

development can facilitate the use of PA and

otherwise improve productivity, its effects on

industrial output levels may be less evident

than the effects of technology-oriented policy.

The major disadvantage of a primarily human

resourceoriented strategy is that it might not

improve productivity or competitiveness

enough to offset trends in other countries. As

in the laissez-faire strategy, the United States

would run the risk of a further erosion in inthe risk of a further erosion in industrial output levels and loss of technological superiority.

A combined technology- and human resourceoriented strategy could ensure technology

development and increased competitiveness

while minimizing social fallout. It would recognize the complementary contributions of

equipment and of people in production, and

help assure that human impacts are explicitly considered in PA development and use. The

disadvantages of such a combined approach

include the administrative and legal burdens

of coordinating a wide range of Federal activ-

. . ities.

Specific Policy

Technology Development

Options

and Diffusion

Existing Federal policy toward manufacturing technology is piecemeal at best. In the area

of R&D, four agencies with distinctly different

mandates fund automation research, although

only a small portion of this work has general

applicability for commercial manufacturing.

Only in the area of defense procurement is

there a concerted Federal effort to coordinate

product and process technology development

and application.

Option: Fund Research and Development. —Congress could act to increase PA

R&D by influencing both the overall level of

funding and its distribution to various agencies and research topics. The current environment for PA R&D is relatively healthy. However, funding for more long-term, generic

research in nonmilitary application areas is

relatively thin. Since the bulk of federally

sponsored R&D is centered on military applications, Congress may wish to raise funding

specifically for generic research, primarily

through the National Science Foundation and

National Bureau of Standards. Congress may

also wish to increase funding for standards

and human factors research, which could facilitate the application of programmable automation across a wide range of industries.
.— - .

Ch. l—Summary ● 1 7

——.———-—

Photo credit National Bureau of Standards

A robot loads a computerized machining center at the National Bureau of Standards’

Automated Manufacturing Research Facility

Option: Facilitate Standard-setting. -In addition to bolstering R&D in standards, Congress may wish to consider legislation to facilitate standard-setting as a means of increasing

the ease of use of the technologies and encouraging their application. The principal disadvantage of standard-setting is the risk that

more rapid adoption of standards may provide

short-term benefits for users but hinder future

innovations which could be inconsistent with

the standards.

Congress might consider legislation which

would clarify the legal position of standardsetting groups. Currently, groups which oversee the intricate process of developing standards, such as professional and trade associations, can be held responsible for antitrust

violations which specific standards may pose.

In addition, Congress could consider mandating a more active role for the Federal Government in coordinating and promoting standardsetting efforts. A potential disadvantage of

this option is that it would increase Federal

involvement in PA markets.

Option: Encourage Use of the Technologies.–The appropriate rate for adoption of PA

is a subject of contention. It depends on the

rates of adoption among our trading partners,

the extent of delay between invention and

adoption of new technology, and the ability of

the labor force and industries to adjust. There

is probably a degree to which PA adoption can

be facilitated by Federal efforts without incurring excess costs. Beyond some indefinite

point, however, encouragement of the use of
18 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

PA may lead to ill-considered applications and

excessive problems for employees and communities.

Federal options for facilitating application

of PA primarily involve removing barriers.

These options include assistance in providing

capital for the purchase or lease of automation

equipment, and providing information about

PA to manufacturers.

Measures to encourage adoption of PA, however, are only a partial and short-term solution to manufacturing problems. A longer-term

solution involves redressing the historical U.S.

inattention to manufacturing processes, organization, and management. Though there is some

evidence that the private sector has begun to

address this need, Congress could play an important role in fostering the development of

engineering curricula in universities which

combine manufacturing, design, and human

resource management activities; as well as encouraging research in manufacturing engineering topics. Further, Congress could establish

some form of “manufacturing institute, ” perhaps building on the research centers already

at NBS or at universities, to provide a focus

for manufacturing technology, organization,

and management issues. Such an institute

could serve as an information clearinghouse

for manufacturers, as well as a think tank with

rotating fellowships for people from all parts

of the manufacturing sector.

Employment

The United States has had major Federal

programs for employment since the Depression era. Excluding education and training

programs (see later in this chapter), existing

Federal employment policy covers four broad

categories: 1) the development and distribution of labor-market information, 2) income

maintenance for the unemployed, 3) labor

standards, and 4) job creation. Compared with

policies in most European countries and Japan, U.S. labor market policy is reactive and

uncoordinated, and it is not linked to other,

industry-oriented programs for structural adjustment in the national economy.

Option: Maintain the Status Quo.–Existing

Federal programs provide relatively limited

Federal involvement in employment change.

Though some might argue that this level of

involvement is appropriate, the existing set

of programs and institutions have several

drawbacks. In the last two decades, Federal

employment policy has come to focus on shortterm programs for aiding disadvantaged

groups of people (low-income or chronically unemployed or underemployed). In particular,

current programs are ill-equipped to deal with

long-term shifts in labor demand arising from

technological and economic changes, growing

uncertainty in skill requirements, and extended unemployment among groups other

than the disadvantaged. Similarly, they are

not designed to deal with large regional disparities in unemployment, a problem that PA

will likely aggravate in the near term.

Option: Establish Programs for Job Creation.–Job creation programs can help decrease unemployment, as well as stimulate ec~

nomic growth and help build the skills of the

work force. The principal problem in developing a job creation program is to avoid paying for jobs that employers would have created

anyway, and to avoid merely shifting employment from one industry to another, either of

which would diminish net job growth.

Job creation programs range from the most

general (i.e., expansionary macroeconomic policy) to specific measures to stimulate hiring,

including tax credits, incentives for domestic

production, change in average work hours, and

increased production of public goods and services. In particular, the latter two types of job

creation programs might be considered in the

face of persistent labor surpluses. Although

reducing average work hours can spread work

among a larger group of people, individual

employees may experience real wage losses.

The actual costs and benefits of reducing work

hours depend on how such a program is structured.

Similarly, stimulating production of socalled public goods and services would also

create jobs. Production of public goods and
Ch. l—Summary ● 1 9

— — — — — —

services does not have to be met by expanded

public sector employment. As in the case of

defense procurement, public investment can

stimulate private sector employment. “Public goods and services” can include a multitude

of activities—from highway building to child

care. The principal disadvantage of public

goods programs historically has been the diversion of resources from private goods production.

Option: Expand Programs for Labor-Market Information. –PA offers the prospect of

radical and ongoing changes in the deployment of labor among manufacturing firms.

Monitoring of employment patterns by expanded collection and analysis of occupational

employment data would provide a means of

measuring the rate, extent, and direction of

change. Expanded data collection by the Department of Labor and the Bureau of the Census would improve their ability to describe and

forecast employment trends, and it would improve the information they disseminate to educators, counselors, and individuals. It would

also provide data for comparing staffing patterns among firms-information that would be

useful to managers, labor organizations, and

educators. The primary argument against

such efforts to expand labor-market information is rooted in the desire to reduce paperwork

required of businesses, and to limit Government statistics to those that are specifically

needed by Federal agencies.

Option: Expand Adjustment Assistance

Programs. -Expanded programs for income

maintenance or relocation assistance may be

necessary to ease adjustment problems caused

by PA and a variety of other factors. Although

the debate over aid to displaced workers tends

to focus on external aid, actions by employers

themselves may also serve to ease employment shifts. Congress might consider legislation to encourage advance notice of technological change, which allows workers to plan for

change, evaluate training needs, and seek new

work. Employers often resist advance notice

requirements, however, arguing that technological change is a management prerogative.

er for employer actions would be financial incentives to relocate personnel either within or

outside the firm.

Work Environment

OTA’S analysis suggests that the area

where PA itself may motivate the greatest departure from past Federal policy is work environment. Because PA will eventually affect

the work environment of most manufacturing

personnel, especially in metalworking manufacturing, and because it poses potential new

problems pertaining to the psychological aspects of the work environment, this technology raises questions about the adequacy of existing mechanisms for studying, monitoring,

and regulating workplace conditions.

Option: No Increased Federal Role.–Although no single policy instrument specifically

addresses the impacts of PA on the work environment, various mechanisms are already in

place at the Federal, State, and local levels

that cover workplace concerns in general, particularly in the areas of health and safety. Further, a few efforts have begun in both the private and public sectors to plan for the

workplace effects of the introduction to new

technology. Finally, it maybe too early in the

development and application of PA to devise

an appropriate Federal role. All the above concerns might argue for retaining the status quo.

However, work environment issues are similar in some ways to other problems, such as

pollution, which are not easily solved by the

private sector on its own. With current estimates of union membership in the United

States totaling about one-fifth of all workers,

there is a large segment of the population that

will not have a focused way to articulate work

environment concerns. Finally, there is a great

deal to be learned about the effects of PA on

the workplace, and such research must begin

immediately in order to help improve the

workplace as adoption of PA accelerates.

Option: Increase Oversight and Mom”toring. —Congress could increase the emphasis

placed on the workplace effects of computerAnother measure that Congress tight consid- ized manufacturing automation through its
20 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

oversight and monitoring activities. Considerable oversight has been provided on these

issues by a number of congressional committees over the past several years. In addition

to its own oversight activities, Congress could

designate monitoring responsibilities to the

Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). While

such oversight could inform Congress and the

public about workplace concerns and cover a

wide range of settings, it might result in a

piecemeal effort with little or no coordination

of activities or sharing of information.

Option: Increase Support for Work Environment Research. -Congress could support

research, through such agencies as NIOSH,

NSF, and the Department of Labor, on both

the short- and long-term social impacts of PA

on the workplace. Potential areas for research

might include the physical and psychological

effects of PA, management strategies and policies in introducing and using PA, worker participation, identification of hazards and how

to control them, changes in work content and

organization, and changes in organizational

structure, among others. Research would be

particularly valuable for identifying techniques to measure nonphysical problems in the

workplace. Demonstration projects, seminars,

and experiments would enhance understanding of the effects of PA and the extent to

which it can be shaped to improve the work

environment.

Current research on the social impacts of PA

on the manufacturing work environment is

modest in scope and support, reflecting the

limited amount of interest and funding available for this purpose. By contrast, study of the

impacts of new technology on the workplace

is more common in Japan and Western Europe, where the subject has historically received

more attention across sectors.

Option: Set New Standards.– New safety

and health standards may be required to address problems associated with the use of PA.

Reliable information would be needed on the

numbers of people at risk, the nature of the

risks, and the potential costs and benefits of

establishing and enforcing new regulations.

Option: Promulgate Omnibus Work Environment Legislation. –Other aspects of the introduction of new technology into the workplace, beyond safety and health concerns,

suggest that a broader approach to work environment policy may be desirable. These aspects include the potential for excessive surveillance of workers and the disparity in

worker and management understanding of

both the choices available in adopting FA and

theie workplace ramifications. In addition, a

broader approach would ensure that the interests of all workers would be protected.

A number of European countries have taken

an omnibus approach to workplace concerns.

In Norway and Sweden, for instance, work environment legislation has been in effect since

1977. One purpose of this legislation is to protect workers’ mental as well as physical health

in the workplace, particularly in the context

of technology change; another is to give employees an opportunity to influence the design

of the work environment.

Education, Training, and Retraining

The Federal role in education has traditionally been that of supplementing or enhancing State and local activities. In recent years

there has been a movement toward lessening

direct Federal involvement. In contrast, the

Federal role in training and retraining efforts–particularly for the economically disadvantaged-has been dominant since the mid1960’s. In keeping with the trend toward

decentralization, the recently enacted Job

Training Partnership Act (JTPA) shifts responsibility for administration and regulation

of federally funded training and retraining

activities to the States.

Option: No Increased Federal Role. –As in

other areas affected by PA, it maybe too early

to assess the appropriate Federal role in education, training, and retraining related to PA.

However, if the Federal Government chose not

to modify its existing programs, it would for-
Ch. l—Summary ● 2 1

—

go potential roles unlikely to be assumed by

other levels of government or the private sector, such as assisting in the coordination of instructional activities, ensuring that adequate

labor market and occupational forecasts are

developed, and ensuring that information derived from such forecasts is actively disseminated to individuals, educators, and trainers.

Option: Increase Support for Facilities,

Equipment, and Qualified Instructors.–Congress could consider options such as tax incentives for the purchase of state-of-thwu-t equipment for training, and funding to establish

selected educational facilities and maintain

them for use in periods of intense demand for

PA instruction. Congress is currently considering legislation to encourage interest in math

and science teaching, engineering education,

and other forms of technical instruction. While

these measures could remove many of the barriers to the establishment of PA instructional

programs, they might also stimulate too much

interest in PA instruction at the expense of

other types of education and training.

Option: Encourage Curriculum Development. —Congress could enact a grant program

to fund the development of curricula geared

to the development of PA-related skills. Encouraging comprehensive curriculum design

and the establishment of voluntary guidelines

for curriculum content at various levels would

guarantee some degree of standardization to

both enrollees and employers.

Option: Encourage Renewed Emphasis on

Basic Skills and Problem-Solving Skills. -Congress could choose to encourage at all levels

of instruction a renewed emphasis on strong,

basic skills in reading, math, and science. Special emphasis could be placed on the development of individual problem-solving skills,

since these are important prerequisites to

training for careers in computerized manufacturing, as well as for nonmanufacturing occupations.

overall skill level. It could also create a foundation of skills that could be enhanced over

time through the development of job-related

skills, including those associated with PA.

Finally, this approach would not feed the process of “skills obsolescence” by tying individual

instruction too closely to specific technologies.

Option: Encourage Individual Participation

in PA-Related Instruction.— possible measures already being considered by Congress to

make individual participation in instruction

more economical include individual tax incentives (e.g., deductions for spending on training for a new occupation); the designation of

training as an allowable expense under the Unemployment Insurance System; and the establishment of individual education or training accounts. Incentives to individuals would be

particularly valuable in instances where employers do not provide PA-related instruction

to their employees beyond the level of introductory training.

Option: Encourage Industry-Based Instruction.—Few users of PA equipment currently

have or plan to establish in-house instructional

programs. Congress could choose to encourage

users of programmable equipment to establish

or enhance in-house technical training programs through the creation of tax incentives

that help defray the costs of instructors, equipment, expansion of instructional facilities, and

curriculum development.

Option: Intensify Research Efforts.–Congress could choose to increase Federal sponsorship of research to identify changing skills

requirements within manufacturing occupations, and to provide for broad-based dissemination of the findings to better equip educators and trainers for curriculum development.

Congress could also use a research program

to encourage the development of instructional

standards that are in keeping with PA skills

requirements.

This option could make the labor supply

more resilient in the long term by raising the
Chapter 2

Introduction
Contents

Page

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25

Study Approach, Organization, and Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Organization and Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

Congressional Interest and Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Table

Table No. Page

4. Representative Recent Congressional Hearings Relevant to

Programmable Automation . ......””.””””””.. 29
Chapter 2

Introduction —— — — —. —- —

Background

A new wave of automation is spreading

through manufacturing industries, and like its

predecessors, it is receiving a mixed welcome.

Computerized manufacturing automation–

the application of electronic computer and

communication tools to manufacturing-is

viewed both as contributing to the problems

faced by the U.S. economy and as part of the

solution to those problems. * Those who view

it optimistically emphasize its potential to improve productivity, work environment, product quality, and ultimately competitiveness.

Those taking the opposite view argue that it

will cause massive unemployment, make many

jobs less rewarding, and provoke a retraining

crisis. The rhetoric used by both sides makes

it difficult to appraise the technologies and,

more importantly, to determine what policies

may be appropriate.

The economic and social effects of computers and automation in manufacturing have

aroused concern since the late 1950’s. During

the late 1950’s and early 1960’s, people grew

more aware of the potential uses of computer

technology, while adoption of so-called hard

or dedicated automation began to accelerate.

Studies conducted during that period, including the report of a Federal study commission,

drew conclusions about potential job loss,

changing work conditions, and instructional

needs that remain valid today.1 Because of

technological developments and falling costs

for computing during the late 1960’s and the

1970’s, the prospects for significant social and

economic change resulting from wide use of

*The subject of this report is described as ‘‘manufacturing’

rather than “factory’ automation in order to emphasize that

these tools can be applied not only to the fabrication of products but also to the critical functions of product design and

manufacturing management. Related office automation technologies is being evaluated in a forthcoming OTA study, ‘‘Information and Communication Technologies and the Office. ”

‘Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, 1966.

computer technologies

day than before.

are more immediate toThe current wave of automation is unlike its

predecessors in several ways: Programmable

automation (PA) can collect and process information as well as do physical work, allowing

equipment for design, production, and management to be linked together. It can improve

product quality by raising consistency and

control in production. And it can be used in

producing a range of products because of its

reprogrammability. This trait, in particular,

lies behind claims for PA “flexibility”. These

features make PA economical in production

of much smaller quantities than hard automation, which is largely restricted to large quantity or mass production. They make PA applicable across a wide range of industries,

whereas the applicability of conventional hard

automation is much more limited. PA will

have a major influence on skill requirements,

product design and variety, production costs,

job content, and the organization and management of manufacturing. Its features are fundamental to the potential changes in employment, work environment, and education and

training needs that are a focus of this report.

The technical features of programmable

automation and their economic and social ramifications will continue to make PA a source

of controversy over the next decade. In particular, the economic aspects are central to the

argument proponents make for rapid development and diffusion of programmable automation. Proponents claim that, in the current

climate of international competition, manufacturing firms must either automate or move

production overseas if they are to continue in

business.* The basic argument states that PA

will make domestic manufacturing more effiBarring, that is, significant changes in import restraints or

the value of the dollar.

25
26 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— .—. .— —..——————— — —.

cient and competitive, and it will thereby

contribute to economic growth and greater

employment.

The focus on economic growth reflects concern over the slow growth in productivity and

economic output experienced during the

1970’s and early 1980’s. During that time,

U.S. industries lost shares in domestic and

foreign markets to foreign competitors, principally the Japanese. While the causes and significance of these phenomena are debated even

among experts, popular consensus deems a

key cause to be different production costs—

in particular, different labor costs—among

countries and industries. Lower costs abroad

for labor have been a major reason, but not

the only one,* for increases in overseas production by U.S. manufacturers as well as for

increased imports of manufacturing goods.

Against this background, the labor-savings

aspects of PA technologies have taken on

special significance.

Unfortunately, the popular focus on the

labor-savings aspects of programmable automation is misleading: It plays on historic tensions between labor and management in this

country, and it ignores the role of management, product design, and other cost factors

in determining a company’s ability to compete. There is a risk that, by emphasizing the

one-for-one substitution of machines for people, companies will use PA inefficiently; they

may ignore critical differences between what

people and machines can do best, and they

may ignore less tangible but effective options

for improving human resource management or

responsiveness to customer needs.**

*other reasons include such factors as differences in materials and energy costs, differences in capital markets, the exchange rate, and changes in market size.

**This capital spending bias was brought out by a recent survey of industrial engineers. (Institute of Industrial Engineers,

“productivity Today: An Inside Report,” 1983.) As one reporter

noted, “It seems clear that while more companies could benefit from trying to better use their employees, the role of capital

spending-traditionally the ‘quick fix’ for improved industrial

performance-will remain a major component of corporate strategy. ” Philip Moeller, “Firms Try To Boost Output, ” The

(Baltimore) Sun, Oct. 19, 1983.

PA will help many companies to produce

better and cheaper. But whether the policy

goal is to improve industrial competitiveness,

maximize employment, or both, OTA’S research reveals a need for comprehensive rethinking of manufacturing processes and competitive strategies. With surprising consistency, automation experts consulted by OTA

cited organizational factors, rather than

technical ones, as the principal problems surrounding the use of PA. Thus, in several cases,

PA feasibility studies have led to improvements in product design and production processes without the adoption of PA equipment.

While new technology-i. e., new ways to combine equipment, personnel, and materials-can

help manufacturing companies, experiences in

the United States and abroad reveal that the

success or failure of PA depends more on the

management characteristics of the organizations that use it than on the particular choice

of equipment and systems.

The technological, social, and economic concerns surrounding the spread of programmable

automation are interconnected. Labor-saving

technology does not necessarily cause unemployment: employment depends on what and

how much consumers will buy, as well as how

management decides to make those goods.

Technology does not of itself raise or lower the

skill levels required of employees: skill requirements depend on how management defines

jobs and allocates work to suit an existing or

preferred work force. Machines do not necessarily improve or degrade the work environment: equipment designers and managers

make choices that determine how machines

and people interact.

Programmable automation can improve the

work environment, raise productivity, and create

or preserve at least some jobs if it is developed

and applied with those goals in mind. Because

the markets for PA are still young and the use

of PA is still relatively limited, the near-term

social and economic effects of PA will not be

cataclysmic. There is time for managers, employees, educators, and government to gain a
Ch. 2—Introsuction ● 2 7

better understanding of PA and to plan to ad- analysis of changing skill requirements, imdress the effects of automation on the work- provements on the pairings of people with

place. Such advance planning will be necessary machines, and the roles and requirements for

in order for the country to capture the poten- various educational institutions. Also importial benefits of PA and avoid excessive social tant is the business climate for PA vendors

and economic costs. Specific areas where long- and users.

range planning would be beneficial include

Study Approach, Organization, and Methodology

Approach

To appreciate what programmable automation bodes for the U.S. economy, it is necessary to understand its key features, including

its limitations and side effects as well as its

expected benefits. This report examines those

features largely from the perspective of the individual firm that may adopt PA. It focuses

on the use of PA among discrete-product manufacturers, * particularly those in such metalworking industries as transportation equipment and electrical and nonelectrical machinery. These industries have been and will

through this century continue to be leading

users of PA. While many of the conclusions

reached about the application of PA in metalworking industries may hold for other industries, generalizing about long-term effects of

PA across industries-even among metalworking industries—is risky.

Where uncertainties exist, they are identified. Often, those uncertainties surround

estimates of the amounts of change that are

likely to arise from the spread of PA. The reliability of inferences about quantitative effects on industries, regions, and the national

economy is limited because good data on economic and social aspects of PA do not exist.

In particular, there is a scarcity of good data

describing shifts in skill requirements, types

of jobs, materials requirements, or the structure and competitive conduct of industries

producing and using programmable automa-

*Prducers of discrite products made in lots raging from

one to mass-production quantity, such as industrial machines

and automobiles, as opposed to continuous-process manufacturers, such as producers of chemicals and steel.

tion. Consequently, it is too early to make

precise, quantitative forecasts. Moreover,

because technology, industry, and job characteristics are changing continually, descriptions

of conditions at any one point will not necessarily hold up over time. This report therefore

stresses the identification of the nature and

direction of likely changes rather than their

magnitudes.

This report examines a wide range of potential changes in the development and use of

human resources that may accompany the

spread of PA. Some will shape industry employment prospects, others will affect the

work environment. Indeed, potential changes

in the work environment will ultimately affect

more people than changes in industry employment levels. While developments in employment and in the work environment may motivate new education and training activities,

education and training in turn may shape the

development, use, and employment effects of

PA. In describing the ramifications of programmable automation for human resources,

this report addresses the potential for nontechnological factors, from management style to

industrial structure, to reinforce or conflict

with the influences of PA itself.

The international context for PA development and use is highlighted throughout the

report. While data on activities and programs

abroad are limited and uneven in quality, each

chapter relates phenomena in the United

States to those abroad to the extent feasible.

Actions in many countries will affect the level

of technological development, the strength of

the United States’ claim to technological lead-
28 “ Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employmenf, Education, and the Workplace

-.

ership, and the ability of producers and users

of PA to compete in domestic and foreign

markets.

Organization and Methodology

Following the executive summary and introduction, the prospects for programmable auto

mation are examined in this report from several perspectives. Those perspectives are

brought out through seven analytical and

descriptive chapters. A final chapter presents

congressional policy options. Each chapter

draws on other chapters in the report, but is

otherwise self-contained.

Chapter 3 addresses the questions, “What

is programmable automation?” and “How

might it be used?” It defines PA technologies-including computer-aided design, robots

and other forms of computer-aided manufacturing, and related computer-based management systems—and describes their development trends. This chapter stresses the fact

that PA is much bigger than robotics, which

receives most of the attention, and it evaluates

the potential for the integration of PA equipment into highly automated systems.

Chapters 4, 5, and 6 address the question,

“What are the implications of its use?”

Chapter 4 examines the prospects for employment change, including the ways in which PA

may influence job design and the number and

mix of jobs among firms and industries. It also

highlights conflicting influences on employment by occupation and industry. Chapter 5

explores the implications of the use of PA for

the workplace. The chapter shows how technological features combine with management

attitudes and actions to shape the work environment in manufacturing firms. Chapter 6

illuminates emerging needs for education,

training, and retraining and discusses current

efforts by industry, labor, and the academic

community to meet those needs. It also discusses the relationship between PA-related

skills development and broader educational

preparation.

Chapter 7 addresses the questions, “Who

produces PA equipment?” and “What is the

status of producer industries?” It describes

the structure and competitive conduct of industries supplying programmable automation

goods and services. The chapter also characterizes the emerging role of these industries

in the U.S. and world economies.

Chapters 8 and 9 provide background on the

players involved and on existing directions in

U.S. and foreign technology policy. Chapter

8 describes the roles of public and private institutions conducting PA research and development. Chapter 9 enumerates the efforts of

governments in other countries to stimulate

the production and use of programmable automation. These two chapters lead into chapter

10, which provides alternatives for congressional action.

The findings and insights of this report were

developed from many sources of information.

Technical literature and conference sessions

provided background materials, but more direct development of information constituted

the bulk of the research. Over the course of

the study, OTA held workshops that brought

together experts in the areas of employment

change and industrial relations, programmable

automation industries, and programmable

automation technologies. OTA also conducted

a survey of education, training, and retraining activities and opinions among producers

and users of PA and among educators. In addition, 18 case studies were carried out. Fourteen described approaches to education, training, or retraining; four described some of the

effects of PA on the work environment.

Throughout the study, OTA staff visited facilities and consulted with a wide range of

experts.
Ch. 2—Introduction ● 2 9

Congressional Interest and Policy

The computerized manufacturing automation study was requested by the Joint Economic Committee, the Senate Committee on

Labor and Human Resources, the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and the Labor Standards Subcommittee of the House Committee on Education and

Table 4. —Representative Recent Congressional

Robotics

June 2 and 23, 1982, 97th Cong., 2d sess.

Hearings before the Subcommittee on Investigations and

Oversight to examine the status and potential applications

of robotics technology R&D.

New Technology in the American Workplace

June 23, 1982, 97th Cong., 2d sess.

Hearing before the Subcommittee on Labor Standards to

examine the impact of automation on employment and

working conditions.

Hearings on Mathematics and Science Education

Sept. 28-30, 1982, 97th Cong., 2d sess.; and Jan. 26-28 and

31, 1983, 98th Cong., 1st sess.

Hearings before the Subcommittee on Elementary, Secondary, and Vocational Education and the Subcommittee

on Postsecondary Education to consider several biIls to

improve mathematics and science education at the

elementary and secondary level.

Oversight of Trade Adjustment Assistance Programs

and Authorization of Appropriations for U.S. Trade

Representative, International Trade Commission,

and Customs Service

Mar. 17, 1983, 98th Cong., 1st sess.

Hearings before the Subcommittee on International Trade

to consider the impacts of foreign trade and the fiscal year

1984 activities of concerned Federal agencies.

Impact of Robotics on Employment

Mar. 18, 1983, 98th Cong., 1st sess.

Hearing before the Subcommittee on Economic Goals and

Intergovernmental Policy to examine the impact of

automation, including robotics, on U.S. employment.

Biological Clocks and Shift Work Scheduling

Mar. 23 and 24, 1983, 98th Cong., 1st sess.

Hearings before the Subcommittee on Investigations and

Oversight to examine research on human biological

rhythms, such as the sleep-wake cycle, and their effect

on job performance of shift workers.

Job Forecasting

Apr. 6 and 7, 1983, 98th Cong., 1st sess.

Hearings before the Subcommittee on Investigations and

Oversight to examine implications of technology change

for employment forecasting.

Labor. Other committees, including the House

Committee on Science and Technology and the

House Committee on Small Business, have

also expressed interest in this study. Table 4

lists several relevant congressional hearings

held during the development and conduct of

this assessment.

Hearings Relevant to Programmable Automation

—— — --

The Impact of Robots and Computers on the Workforce in

the 1980’s

May 17, 1983, 98th Cong., 1st sess.

Hearing before the Subcommittee on General Oversight

and the Economy on employment forecasting and technological change,

Administration Proposal for Block Grant for Vocational

and Adult Education

May 19, 1983, 98th Cong,, 1st sess.

Hearings before the Subcommittee on Elementary, Secondary, and Vocational Education regarding the formulation and administration of Federal education grants to

States.

Technology and Employment

June 7-10, 14-16, and 23, 1983, 98th Cong. Ist sess.

Joint hearings before the Subcommittee on Science,

Research, and Technology and the Task Force on Education and Employment regarding the range of effects of new

technology on labor.

Industrial Policy, Economic Growth and the Competitiveness

of U.S. Industry

June 24, 29, and 30; and July 13, 14, and 20, 1983, 98th

Cong., 1st sess.

Hearings to examine issues and recommendations relating to a national industrial policy to facilitate industry

capital formation i n order to promote and sustain economic growth.

Joint Hearing on Plant Closing

July 8, 1983, 98th Cong., 1st sess.

Joint hearing before the Subcommittee on Employment

Opportunities and the Subcommittee on Labor-Management Relations of the Committee on Education and Labor

regarding a bill to set conditions on plant closings.

Industrial Policy: the Retraining Needs of the Nation’s Longterm, Structurally Unemployed Workers

Sept. 16, 23, 26, and Oct. 26, 1983, 98th Cong., 1st sess.

Hearings before the Joint Economic Committee on national retraining needs associated with structural change in

the economy.

SOURCE Office of Technology Assessment
30 ● computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

The extensive congressional interest in the cation and training, and the development and

study reflects the fact that programmable use of programmable automation. Moreover,

automation has numerous implications for the policy discussion in chapter 10 emphasizes

policy. Recent policy discussions have tended the interconnections between impacts and polto focus on either labor issues or international icies in all of those areas. It provides altercompetitiveness. Indeed, concern for labor natives for congressional action that address

issues was a strong theme in the requests for those areas together as well as individually.

the study.

This report addresses policy concerns in the

areas of work environment, employment, edu-
Chapter 3

Programmable Automation

Technologies
Contents

Page

summary .. .. ... .. .$....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ... . ....... 33

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Discrete Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

The Manufacturing Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Functional Descriptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Computer-Aided Design (CAD) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM) Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Programmable Automation and Manufacturing Management. . . . . . . . . . 69

Technical Trends and Barriers: Future Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Trends and Barriers in Five Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Technical Trends and Barriers: Cross-Cutting Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

Future of the Technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

Capabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93

Future Levels of Use ofl?rogrammable Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97

Tables

Table No. Page

5. Principal Programmable Automation Techniques. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

6.0perating Robot Installations, End of 1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

7. Examples occurrent Robot Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

8. Estimated Total Machine Tools in the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

9.Age of Machine Tools in Seven Industrial Nations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

10. Machine Tool Task Force Recommendations for Improving Machine

Tool Controls.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

11. CAD: Projections for Solution of Key Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

12. Robotics: Projections for Solution of Key Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

13. NC Machine Tools: Projections for Solution of Key Problems . . . . . . . . 95

14. FMS: Projections for Solution of Key Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

15. CIM: Projections for Solution of Key Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

Figures

Figure No. Page

l. Characteristics of Metal working Production, By Lot Size . . . . . . . . . . . 36

2. Organizational Diagram of a Manufacturing Firm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

3. Steps in the Manufacturing Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

4. Fundamental Operations in Metalworking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

5. Sample Robot Grippers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

6. Actual and Projected U.S. Annual Robot Sales and Installed Base

Through 1992 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

7. Sample APT Computer Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58

8. Total Number of Numerically Controlled Machine Tools

in U.S. Metalworking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

9. Programmable Automation Factory Hierarchy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73

10. NBS Scheme for Distributed Factory Control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83

11. Sample Rule from the MYCIN Expert System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85

12. Sample “Advice” From the MYCIN Expert System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86

13. Machine Vision Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
Chapter 3

Programmable Automation Technologies

Summarv

This chapter is both a primer on programmable automation (PA) tools and their potential applications in manufacturing, and an assessment of the important problems and directions for development of the technologies. As

defined here, programmable automation includes computer-aided design (CAD); computer-aided manufacturing tools—e.g., robotics,

numerically controlled (NC) machine tools,

flexible manufacturing systems (FMS), and

automated materials handling (AMH); and

computer-aided techniques for management—

e.g., management information systems (MIS)

and computer-aided planning (CAP). When

systems for design, manufacturing, and management are used together in a coordinated

system, the result is computer-integrated

manufacturing (CIM).

The context for this analysis is primarily

discrete manufacturing, as opposed to continuous-process industries such as chemicals or

paper. Discrete manufacturing includes a wide

range of traditional metalworking industries

(e.g., automobiles and farm equipment) as well

as other industries which are not primarily

metalworking (e.g., electronics). Of particular

note is that a great many of the products of

discrete manufacturing are made in batches

of perhaps a few dozen to a few hundred units.

Because of this, it is often not economical to

use single-purpose, automated machines

(known as “fixed” or “hard” automation) to

manufacture the product. In such an environment, programmable automation is potentially

very useful.

The essential difference between conventional factory machines and programmable

automation is the latter’s use of information

technology to provide machine control and

communication. The use of computers and

communications systems allows these maU

chines to perform a greater variety of tasks

than fixed automation can perform, and to

automate some tasks which previously necessitated direct human control.

Programmable automation can respond to

some of the central problems of manufacturing. These include enhancing information flow,

improving coordination, and increasing efficiency and flexibility (defined as both the

range of products and volume of a specific

product which a factory can economically produce). By using programmable automation to

address these problems, manufacturers hope

to increase their productivity and control over

the manufacturing process.

Though labor savings seem to be the most

obvious benefit of automation, savings through

more efficient use of materials may be more

significant in many manufacturing environments. In particular, flexible manufacturing

systems can reduce waste, reduce levels of

finished product inventory, and reduce the

manufacturer’s substantial investment in the

products that are in various stages of completion, known as “work in process. ”

Some of the technical factors which hold

back PA’s potential uses in manufacturing

include relatively cumbersome programing

languages, a general level of technical immaturity in many areas of the technologies, longestablished organizational barriers in industry

(e.g., between manufacturing and design engineers), and the embryonic nature of efforts

to maximize the effectiveness of man-machine

interactions.

Nevertheless, the technologies appear to be

quite adequate technically for the vast majority of near-term applications; there seems to

be a significant backlog of

which manufacturers have

exploit.

available tools

only begun to

33
34 ● computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

. —

The use of PA tools in integrated systems–

e.g., FMS or CIM—is much more powerful

than their use for a single task or process.

Such integration not only magnifies the productivity and efficiency benefits of PA, but

also tends to induce changes in all parts of the

factory. Management strategies, product designs, and materials flow all change to best

make use of such integrated systems.

Many industrialists have a vision of CIM

that includes maximum use of PA tools and

coordination between them, with few if any

human workers. Others downplay CIM as a

revolutionary change and emphasize that factories will adopt automation technologies as

appropriate. It may not be appropriate (or eco

nomical) to remove all or most humans from

many factories. In any case, the widespread

use of CIM and virtually unmanned factories

are unlikely to arise before the turn of the

century.

Principal themes in the future development

of PA technologies include increasing their

versatility and power, enhancing their capability to operate without human intervention,

and developing the ability of the tools to be

integrated. Researchers and industry spokesmen report progress in virtually all the fundamental technical areas, although many of

the currently identified problems in programmable automation are complex enough to keep

researchers busy for many years to come. According to many experts, the 1990’s may bring

many major technical advances which could

significantly expand the range of problems to

which programmable automation can be

applied.

Introduction

The purpose of this chapter is to describe

the technologies that together comprise “prog ammable automation, ” and to evaluate their

usefulness for manufacturing. In addition, the

chapter examines how the technologies are

evolving and what can be expected for the capabilities and applications of these tools.

Programm able automation refers to a family

of technologies that lie at the intersection of

computer science and manufacturing engineering. “Programmable’ means that they can be

switched from one task to another with relative ease by changing the (usually) computerized instructions; “automation” implies that

they perform a significant part of their functions without direct human intervention. The

common element in these tools that makes

them different from traditional manufacturing

tools is their use of the computer to manipulate and store data, and the use of related

microelectronics technology to allow communication of data to other machines in the

factory.*

There are three general categories of functions which these tools perform-they are used

to help design products, to help manufacture

(both fabricate and assemble) products on the

factory floor, and to assist in management of

many factory operations. Table 5 outlines the

principal technologies included in these categories, each of which will be described in the

next section.

*Although “programmable automation” is less common than

some of the other terms used to describe automation technologies, it is a relatively simple and unambiguous term for the tools

discussed here. “CAD/CAM” (computer-aided design/computeraided manufacturing) is a catch-all term used in industry journals and popular articles to refer to a set of technologies similar

to the set defined here as programmable automation. However,

CAD/CAM is also used to describe some specific computer-aided

design systems, or to denote the integration of computer-aided

design and manufacturing. Because of this ambiguity, the term

will not be used here. “Robotics” is another term that is

sometimes used in a broad sense to mean not only robots but

the whole family of automation tools.
Ch. 3—Programmab/e Automation Technologies ● 3 5

Table 5.—Principal Programmable

Automation Technologies

1. Computer-aided design (CAD)

A. Computer-aided drafting

B. Computer-aided engineering (CAE)

Il. Computer-aided manufacturing (CAM)

A. Robots

B. Numerically controlled (NC) machine tools

C. Flexible manufacturing systems (FMS)

D. Automated materials handling (AMH) and

automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS)

Ill. Tools and strategies for manufacturing management

A. Computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM)

B. Management information systems (MIS)

C. Computer-aided planning (CAP) and computeraided process planning (CAPP)

NOTE: Bold type indicates technologies on which this report concentrates

SOURCE Off Ice of Technology Assessment

fact, the goal of much current research in automation systems is to break down the barriers

between them so that design and manufacturing systems are inextricably linked. However,

these three categories are useful to frame the

discussion, particularly since they correspond

to the organization of a typical manufacturing firm.

Further, this report does not attempt to

cover each of the technologies in equal detail.

It concentrates on those five which appear in

bold type in table 5 because they are the core

technologies of PA and their potential uses are

most extensive.

The three categories of automation technologies-tools for design, manufacturing, and

management-are not mutually exclusive. In

Discrete Manufacturing

Some background about manufacturing is

important to provide a context for assessing

the usefulness of these tools. Programmable

automation can affect many kinds of industry.

This report focuses on PA applications for discrete manufacturing-the design, manufacture

and assembly of products ranging from bolts

to aircraft. The report does not systematically

cover nonmanufacturing applications such as

architecture, or continuous-process manufacturing-e.g., chemicals, paper, and steel. Other

recent OTA reports have examined technological changes affecting process industries.1

Electronics manufacturing industries do not

fit neatly into a discrete v. process classification. Some areas, particularly the fabrication

of semiconductors, most resemble continuousprocess manufacturing. Other portions such

as circuit board assembly are more discrete.

‘Cf. U.S. Industrial Competitiveness: A Comparison of Steel,

Electronics, and Automobiles (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, OTA-ISC-135, July

1982); Technology and Steel Industry Competitiveness

(Washington, D. C.: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, OTA-M-1 22, June 1980).

Because electronics industries have been leaders among metalworking firms in both producing and using computerized factory automation, they play a key role in this report.

To many industrialists, discrete manufacturing means metalworking for mechanical applications-shaping, forming, and finishing

metals into usable products such as engine

blocks. However, an increasing proportion of

mechanical parts manufacturing involves plastics, fiber composites, or new, durable ceramics. These new materials both enable new production processes and are themselves affected

by automation technologies.

One way in which discrete manufacturing

plants can be categorized that is especially relevant to automation applications is the voiume of a given part that they produce. As figure 1 indicates, discrete manufacturing represents a continuum from piece or custom production of a single part to mass production of

many thousands. Although many people are

most familiar with mass-production factories,

with their assembly and transfer lines, it is

estimated that mass production accounts for

only 20 percent of metalworking parts pro-
36 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace —

Figure 1 .—Characteristics of Metalworking Production, By Lot Size

Type of

production:

Piece Batch Mass

1000/0

High

estimate

Low

estimate

10006

00,0 ● 1.

Large

complex 1-1o 10-300

part

Small

simple 1-300 300-15,000

part

Aircraft,

Typical large

products turbines,

centrifuges

Typical

machines

Manual machine

tools, or standalone numerically

controlled (NC)

machine tools

Marine engines,

large electric

motors,

tractors

NC machine tools

with automated parthandling

machining cell

flexible

manufacturing

system

I

Over 200

Over 10,000

Autos,

fasteners,

small

appliances

Transfer lines,

dedicated or

special machines

SOURCE Machine Tool Task Force Technology of Machine Took. October 1980
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologjes ● 3 7

—

duced in the United States, while 75 percent

are made in a “batch” environment. z The definition of a “batch” varies according to the

complexity of the part and the characteristics

of the industry. A common characteristic of

batch manufacturing is that there is not

enough volume to justify specialized machines

(known as “hard automation”) to automatically produce the part. The direct labor involved

in fabricating products in batches is relatively high (as shown in fig. 1), and constitutes a

large proportion of the cost of the item. These

characteristics of batch manufacturing—its

prevalence, and its low level of automation and

correspondingly high level of labor content—

are important because they suggest a broad

range of uses for programmable automation.

The Manufacturing Process

Figure 2 illustrates the organization of a

hypothetical metalworking manufacturing

plant. Most of the elements in this diagram

are present in some form in each plant, although factories are tremendously varied in

size, nature and variety of products, and production technologies. One automobile factory

in New Jersey, for example, assembles 1,000

cars per day in two models (sedan and wagon)

with 4,000 employees; a small Connecticut machine shop, by contrast, employs 10 people to

make hundreds of different metal parts for

aircraft and medical equipment, typically in

batches of approximately 250.3

As illustrated in figure 3, the manufacturing process usually begins when management

decides to make a new product based on information from its marketing staff, or (in the

case of the many factories which produce parts

of other companies’ products) management receives a contract to produce a certain part.

‘M. E. Merchant, “The Inexorable Push for Automated Production, ” Production h’ngineering, January 1977, pp. 44-49.

This 75 percent figure has become something of a legend in the

metalworking industry largely through Merchant’s writings,

though he notes that he has lost track of the original reference

for the statistic. While it is hard to substantiate given the diversity of metalworking industry, Merchant and other industry

experts cite it as a good rough estimate. Personal communication, M. E. Merchant, Nov. 7, 1983.

‘OTA work environment case studies.

Management sends the specifications for the

size, shape, function, and desired performance

of the product to its design engineering staff,

who are responsible for developing the plans

for the product.* In most companies, design

engineers make a rough drawing of the product, and then draftsmen and design detailers

are responsible for working out the detailed

shapes and specifications.

In some discrete manufacturing firms, design may be undertaken at a distant location,

or at a different firm. Automobiles, for example, are designed at central facilities, and the

component subassemblies-e. g., bodies, transmissions, engines-are produced in plants all

over the world.

The design of a product, especially a product

of some complexity, involves an intricate set

of tradeoffs between marketing considerations, materials and manufacturing costs, and

the capabilities and strengths of the company.

The number of choices involved in design is

immense. Determining which of many alternative designs is “best” involves making

choices among perhaps 100,000 different materials, each with different characteristics of

strength, cost, and appearance; it also involves

choices between different shapes and arrangements of parts which will differ in ease of

fabrication and assembly (sometimes called

‘‘manufacturability’ and in performance.

From the design, the production engineering staff determines the “process plan’ ‘machines, staff, and materials which will be used

to make the product. Production planning, like

design, involves a set of complex choices. In

a mass production plant that manufactures

only a few products, such as the auto plant described above, production engineering is a relatively well-structured problem. With high

volumes and fairly reliable expectations about

the products to be made, decisions about appropriate levels of automation, for example,

——.

*In this description, as in the rest of the chapter, titles such

as ‘‘manager, “ “design engineer, ” or “draftsman” indicate the

person who performs these functions. In an actual company the

roles may be less distinct, and boundaries between them frequently changing.
38 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Figure 2.—Organizational of a Manufacturing Firm

Personnel

Management Accounting

I --1

Inventory Production Maintenance

engineering

Materials

handling Fabrication Assembly Finishing Quality control

and assurance

SOURCE Office of Technology Assessment
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 3 9

——— —. —

Figure 3.—Steps in the Manufacturing Process (Simplified)

Product

ideas and

Marketing/ needs Rough- Design detain Blueprints

Design Manufacturing/ 1

management design drafting engineering

Design constraints I

Process plans

Materials Materials Materials

Inventory

Rough

handling Fabrication Finishingpart

Repetitive fabrication

I

steps

Finished part

Quality Inspected Finished Inventory

control Assembly or

part product shipping

Subassemblies

SOURCE Office of Technology Assessment

are relatively straightforward. On the other

hand, for a small “batch” manufacturer such

as the Connecticut machine shop referred to

above, production engineering decisions can

be rather chaotic. Such an environment involves almost continuous change in the number and types of parts being produced (size,

shape, finish, material), the tools and levels of

skill needed to produce them, and unpredictables such as machine breakdowns and inventory control problems.

The steps in production are immensely varied, but most products typically require the

following:

1. Materials handling. —Materials are

brought from inventory to processing stations, and from one station to another.

Wheeled carts, forklift trucks, or conveyors are typically used for this purpose.

Early in the production process, large

parts are mounted on a pallet or fixture

to hold them in place and facilitate materials handling.

2. Fabrication. —There is a tremendous variety of fabrication processes. Plastic and

ceramic parts are extruded or molded; layers of composite fiber material are treated

and “laid Up. ” The most common sequence for three-dimensional (3-D) metal

parts is casting or forging, followed by

machining.

Figure 4 illustrates the basic machining processes which are the core of metalworking. The shape and size of the metal

part, as well as the desired finish and pre

cision, determines the machine to be used.

Some machine tools, such as lathes, are

designed for cylindrical parts, e.g., drive

shafts or rotors. Others, such as planers,

are designed for prismatic parts with basically flat outer surfaces, e.g., engine

blocks. Abrasive cutting of metal produces “chips,” the metal shavings re-
40 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— . —

Figure 4.— Fundamental Operations in Metalworking

Turning

(

+

Drilling

Work

Tool % 1 / wor k

Shaping

r.— A rig. M Fig.

Depth

of cut

Feed

4

Original diameter

diameter

B

[A] The four basic maching processes can, between them, theoretically [B] In any of the basic maching processes, speed, feed,

produce any contour on a workplace Although the processes are old, they and depth of cut determine productivity The three variables

are the foundation of metalworking and are being made more produc- are shown here for turning on a lathe

tive and accurate

Sheet metal bending

+

Push

force

Wire drawing

Pull force

Work

Wire

Cold rolling

Die

Extrusion (foward)

Final size

Ram Work

Embossing

w

Sheet

metal

Die

Fig. C

Size

Sheet metal

Punch

Fig. D

[C] Forming operations bend.

squeeze, or stretch metal,

imparting new sizes or shapes.

or both

[D] Shearing deforms metal

beyond Its breaking point,

thereby separating one portion of a metal sheet from another.

SOURCE M P Groover Fundamental Operations EEE Spectrum vol 20 No 5 May 1983 Reprinted with permission of /EEE Spectrum IEEE
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 41

——. . —

3.

4.

moved from the part, and these chips

must be frequently removed from the machine and recycled or disposed.

Simple parts may be machined in a few

minutes; large, complex ones such as ship

propellers may take up to a few days. The

complexity of these parts is primarily a

function of their geometry–a propeller,

for example, has continuously varying

and precise curves. Similarly, the complexity of a prismatic part depends on the

number of edges and required tolerances

—i.e., the amount a part or surface can

vary from its specified dimensions. Complex parts usually require machining on

more than one machine tool. Including all

machining operations, the total time from

metal “blank” to finished part may vary

from a few minutes to a few weeks. The

partially completed “workpieces” awaiting further machining, finishing, assembly, or testing are known as work-in-process inventories, and often represent a

substantial investment for the manufacturer.

Finally, there are several kinds of metal

parts which are not machined. These include sheet metal parts, which are

stamped and/or bent in sheet-metal

presses, and parts made by “powder metallurgy, ” a technology for forming metal

parts in near-final shape by applying extreme pressure and heat to metal powder.

Finishing. -Many fabrication processes

leave “burrs” on the part which must be

removed by subsequent operations. In

some cases, parts are also washed,

painted, polished, or coated.

Assembly.–The finished parts are put

together to produce a final product or, alternatively, to produce “subassemblies”

which are portions of the final product.

In most factories assembly is still primarily a manual activity, although this phase

of manufacturing is receiving increased

attention, ranging from design strategies

that minimize and simplify assembly

tasks to automation of the tasks themselves.

5. Quality assurance and control.–There are

many quality strategies. They can be divided roughly into those that take place

before or during fabrication and assembly

(quality assurance or QA) and those that

take place after a product or subassembly

is complete (quality control or QC). Quality has been receiving increasing attention

in industrial literature and discussions, although the extent to which companies are

actually paying more attention to quality on the factory floor is uncertain. There

appears to be a movement toward QA as

opposed to QC in order to enhance quality and prevent the production of faulty

products, as opposed to detecting flaws

after production. Strategies for QA range

from “quality circles, ” in which a team of

employees helps address production issues which affect quality, to in-process

measurement of products as they are

manufactured. In the latter, developing

problems in production equipment can

sometimes be detected and corrected before the machine makes a bad part. Most

complex products are produced with some

combination of QA and QC.

Strategies for attaining the more traditional quality control vary widely according to the nature and complexity of the

part. The dimensions of mechanical products can be measured, either with manual

instruments or with a Coordinate Measuring Machine or laser measurement device;

or the product can be compared to one of

known quality or to a master gage. Electronic products can be tested with other

electronic devices or probes.

This brief outline of the manufacturing process suggests some of the key problems in manufacturing. Underlying each of these problems

are the central concerns for any business,

those of minimizing cost and risk. The problems include:

● Information flow. — In any company,

small or large, the amount of information

that must flow between and among design, manufacturing, and management
42 ● computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

staff is staggering. For example, in a

design process involving several teams of

people, how does one make sure that all

design and manufacturing personnel are

working from the most up-to-date set of

plans? How can staff get up-to-date information on the status of a particular batch

of parts, or the performance of a particular machine tool or manufacturing department? How can the company keep track

of work-in-process and other inventory?

Coordination.– Beyond merely obtaining

information in a timely fashion, the company must use that information to determine how to effectively coordinate its

operations. One set of such issues involves coordination of design and production efforts. How can one design products

which can be manufactured most efficiently with a given set of tools? How can

one minimize the number of parts in order

to facilitate assembly? Another set of

coordination issues arises on the factory

floor itself. What is the most efficient way

to allocate machines and personnel? How

does one adapt the schedule when conditions inevitably change (raw materials

don’t arrive, production is slower than expected, etc.)?

Efficiency. —Given a large set of choices

regarding tools, personnel, and factory organization, a company generally seeks to

make the most products using the fewest

resources. This involves concerns such as:

How can the company minimize expensive work-in-process inventories? How

can manufacturers maximize the percentage of time spent making parts, as opposed to moving them, repairing or setting up machines, and planning? How Cm

the use of expensive capital equipment be

maximized? Finally, quality issues within the production process can have a large

impact on efficiency. How can manufacturers maximize the number of products

made right the first time, and hence minimize scrap, rework to correct manufacturing errors, and testing?

● Flexibility. –Increasingly, issues of flexibility and responsiveness in the manufacturing enterprise are prominent for manufacturers, especially for traditional

“mass production” plants. Flexibility is

defined here as the range of products and

the range of volumes of a specific product

which a plant cm economically produce.

Increased levels of competition, shorter

product cycles, and increased demands for

customized products are some of the reasons for an emphasis on flexibility. This

concern raises such questions as: How can

the turnaround time for design and manufacture of a product be reduced? How

can the “setup” time for producing a new

product be reduced? What is the optimum

level of technology for both economy of

production and maximum flexibility?

Programmable automation offers improvements in each of these four key areas of manufacturing by applying computerized techniques to control tools of production, to gather

and manipulate information about the manufacturing process, and to design and plan that

process. Further, the use of PA promises for

many manufacturers an increase in their de

gree of control over the enterprise. Many industrialists argue that the more closely manufacturing processes are tied to one another,

and the more information is readily available

about those processes, the less chance there

is for human error or discretion to introduce

unknown elements into the operation. Such

control is much harder to realize than it appears in theory. The issue of control will be a

recurrent theme in this and subsequent chapters of this report.

In summary, programmable automation can

help make factories “leaner” and more responsive, hence reducing both costs and risks in

manufacturing. It is not, however, a panacea

for problems in manufacturing. Each factory

has different appropriate levels of automation,

and there are technical and organizational barriers to implementing programmable automation most effectively. PA’s capabilities and
Ch. 3—Programmab/e Automation Technologies ● 4 3

. — —

characteristics from a technical standpoint technologies themselves. The organizational

will be elaborated in the rest of this chapter, and social concerns will be addressed at length

beginning with functional descriptions of the in following chapters of the report.

Functional Descriptions

This section briefly describes the operation lyze a design and maximize a product’s perof each programmable automation technology formance using the computerized representaand its applications in manufacturing. tion of the product.

Computer-Aided Design (CAD)

In its simpler forms, CAD is an electronic

drawing board for design engineers and draftsmen. Instead of drawing a detailed design with

pencil and paper, these individuals work at a

computer terminal, instructing the computer

to combine various lines and curves to produce

a drawing of a part and its specifications. In

its more complex forms, CAD can be used to

communicate to manufacturing equipment the

specifications and process for making a product. Finally, CAD is also the core of computeraided engineering, in which engineers can anaPhoto credit Cincinnati Milacron Corp

A designer works on a two-dimensional part drawing

at a CAD terminal. The “light pen, ” held in his right

hand, can be used to point to parts of the drawing and

give commands to the computer

The roots of computer-aided design technology are primarily in computer science. CAD

evolved from research carried out in the late

1950’s and early 1960’s on interactive computer graphics-simply, the use of computer

screens to display and manipulate lines and

shapes instead of numbers and text. As S. H.

Chasen of Lockheed-Georgia describes the rationale behind this research: “The ability of

the computer to spill out reams of geometric

data had outpaced our ability to cope with it.’”

SKETCHPAD, funded by the Department of

Defense (DOD) and demonstrated at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1963, was

a milestone in CAD development. Users could

draw pictures on a screen and manipulate

them with a “light pen ”-a pen-shaped object

wired to the computer which locates points on

the screen. Such early systems were expensive

prototypes and required most of the computing power of the then-largest computers. As

a consequence, most of the early users of CAD

were aerospace, automobile, and electronics

manufacturers.

Several key developments in the 1960’s and

1970’s facilitated the maturation of CAD technology. They included the continuing decrease

in cost of computing power, especially with the

development of powerful mini- and microcomputers, which were primarily a result of electronics manufacturers learning to squeeze

more and more circuitry into an integrated circuit chip. Another important technological advance was the development of cheaper, more

4S. H. Chasen, “Historical Highlights of Interactive Computer

Graphics, ” Mechanical Engineering, November 1981, pp. 22-41.
44 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automat/on: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

efficient display screens. In addition, computer scientists began to develop very powerful

programing techniques for manipulating computerized images.

How CAD Works. —There are various

schemes for input of a design to the computer

system, each with its advantages and disadvantages. Every CAD system is equipped

with a keyboard, although other devices are

often more useful for entering and manipulating shapes. The operator can point to areas of

the screen with a light pen or use a graphics

tablet, which is an electronically touch-sensitive drawing board; a device called a “mouse”

can be traced on an adjacent surface to move

a pointer around on the screen. If there is already a rough design or model for the product, the operator can use a “digitizer” to read

the contours of the model into computer memory, and then manipulate a drawing of the

model on the screen. Finally, if the part is

similar to one that has already been designed

using the CAD system, the operator can recall

the old design from computer memory and edit

the drawing on the screen.

CAD systems typically have a library of

stored shapes and commands to facilitate the

input of designs. There are four basic functions

performed by a CAD system which can enhance the productivity of a designer or draftsman. First, CAD allows “replication,” the ability to take part of the image and use it in several other areas of the design when a product

has repetitive features. Second, the systems

can “translate” parts of the image from one

location on the screen to another. Third is

‘‘scaling, “ in which CAD can “zoom in’ on a

small part, or change the size or proportions

of one part of the image in relation to the

others. Finally, “rotation” allows the operator

to see the design from different angles or perspectives. Using such commands, operators

can perform sophisticated manipulations of

the drawing, some of which are difficult or impossible to achieve with pencil and paper. Repetitive designs, or designs in which one part

of the image is a small modification of a previous drawing, can be done much more quickly through CAD. On the other hand, CAD can

be cumbersome, especially for inexperienced

users. Drawing an unusual shape maybe fairly

straightforward with a pencil, but quite complex to accomplish using the basic lines and

curves in the system’s library.

The simplest CAD systems are two-dimensional (2-D), like pencil-and-paper drawings.

And like sets of those drawings, they can be

used to model 3-D objects if several 2-D drawings from various perspectives are combined.

For some applications, such as electronic circuit design, 2-D drawings are sufficient. More

sophisticated CAD systems have been developed in the past few years which allow the

operator to construct a 3-D image on the

screen, * a capability which is particularly useful for complex mechanical products.

Most CAD systems include a few CAD terminals connected to a central mainframe or

minicomputer, although some recently developed systems use stand-alone microcomputers. As the operator produces a drawing, it is

stored in computer memory, typically on a

magnetic disk. The collection of digitized

drawings in computer storage becomes a design data base, and this data base is then

readily accessible to other designers, managers, or manufacturing staff.

CAD operators have several options for output of their design. All systems have a plotter, which is capable of producing precise and

often multicolor paper copies of the drawing.

Some systems can generate copies of the design on microfilm or microfiche for compact

storage. Others are capable of generating photographic output. In most cases, however, the

paper output from CAD is much less important than it is in a manual design process.

More important is the fact that the design is

stored on a computer disk; it is this version

which is most up-to-date and accessible, and

*In a practical sense, any image on a computer screen is two

dimensional, The difference between a “3-D” image as discussed

here and any other 2-D drawing that appears three-dimensional

(e.g., a painting, a photograph or any drawing with perspective) is that this image, unlike a paper drawing, can be

manipulated as if it were a real 3-D object. For example, the

operator can instruct the CAD system to rotate the object, and

he/she then sees another face of the object,
— —- Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 4 5

— — — —

\

. 4 ”

 ,

Illustrafion credit Computervision Corp.

The designer has removed a section of this three-dimensional CAD image in order to better visualize

part relationships and assembly information

which will be modified as design changes

occur.

The CAD systems described above are essentially draftsmen’s versions of word processors, allowing operators to create and easily modify an electronic version of a drawing.

However, more sophisticated CAD systems

can go beyond computer-aided drafting in two

important ways.

First, such systems increasingly allow the

physical dimensions of the product, and the

steps necessary to produce it, to be developed

via the computer and communicated electronically to computer-aided manufacturing equipment. Some of these systems present a graphic

simulation of the machining process on the

screen, and guide the operator step-by-step in

planning the machining process. The CAD

system can then produce a tape which is fed

into the machine tool controller and used to

guide the machine tool path. Such connections

from computer-aided design equipment to

computer-aided manufacturing equipment

shortcut several steps in the conventional

manufacturing process. They cut down the

time necessary for a manufacturing engineer

to interpret design drawings and establish

machining plans; they facilitate process planning by providing a visualization of the machining process; and they reduce the time necessary for machinists to interpret process

plans and guide the machine tool through the

process.
46 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Second, these more sophisticated CAD systems serve as the core technology for many

forms of computer-aided engineering (CAE).

Beyond using computer graphics merely to

facilitate drafting and design changes, CAE

tools permit interactive design and analysis.

Engineers can, for example, use computer

graphic techniques for simulation and animation of products, to visualize the operation of

a product or to obtain an estimate of its performance. Other CAE programs can help engineers perform finite element analysis-essentially, breaking down complex mechanical

objects into a network of hundreds of simpler

elements to determine stresses and deformations. Computerization in general made finite

element analysis feasible for the engineer’s

use, while CAD systems make it significantly less cumbersome by assisting the engineer

in breaking down the object into “elements.

Many of these analytical functions are dependent on 3-D CAD systems which can not

only draw the design but also perform “solid

modeling”—i.e., the machine can calculate and

display such solid characteristics as the volume and density of the object. Solid-modeling

capabilities are among the most complex features of CAD technology, and will be discussed in more detail in later sections of this

chapter.

Applications. -At the end of 1983 there

were an estimated 32,000 CAD workstations

in the United States.s

Aerospace and electronics uses of CAD have

always led the state of the art. For example,

the Boeing Commercial Airplane Co., which

began using CAD in the late 1950’s, employed

the technology extensively in the design of its

new-generation 757 and 767 aircraft. Boeing

uses CAD to design families of similar parts

such as wing ribs and floor beams. CAD allows

designers to make full use of similarities between parts so that redesign and redrafting

are minimized. Moreover, CAD has greatly

simplified the task of designing airplane inSource: Dataquest.

teriors and cargo compartments, which are

often different for each plane. Moving seats,

galleys, and lavatories is relatively simple with

CAD, and the system is then used to generate

instructions for the machines which later drill

and assemble floor panels according to the

layout. Finally, Boeing uses CAD and related

interactive computer graphics systems as the

basis for computer-aided engineering applications such as checking mechanism clearances

and simulating flight performance of various

parts and systems.e

Computer-aided engineering has also become important in the automobile and aerospace industries, where weight can be a critical

factor in the design of products. These industries have developed CAE programs which can

optimize a design for minimum material used

while maintaining strength.

Applications for the design of integrated circuits are similarly advanced. Very large-scale

integrated (VLSI) circuits, for example, have

become so complicated that it is virtually im-

‘W. D. Beeby, (former) Director of Engineering Computing

Systems, Boeing Commercial Airplane Co., “Applications of

Computer-Aided Design on the 767” (Seattle: Boeing, 1983).

Steo 0

Illustration credit: General Motors Corp.

A computer-aided engineering system developed at

General Motors Research Laboratories can help

designers develop parts which are of minimum mass,

yet are capable of performing under the structural

loads. The CAE system tries to make the part thinner

and lighter with each step; shading changes which

appear on the computer screen show simulated stress

levels within the design limits for this part
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 4 7 — — —— —.———— ——

possible for a person to manually keep track

of the circuit paths and make sure the patterns

are correct. There is less need here for geometrically sophisticated CAD systems (integrated

circuit designs are essentially a few layers of

two-dimensional lines), and more need for computer-aided engineering systems to help the

designer cope with the intricate arrangement

of the circuit pattern. Such CAE programs are

used to simulate the performance of a circuit

and check it for “faults,” as well as to optimize

the use of space on the chip.7

CAD is also beginning to be used for nonaerospace mechanical design, and in smaller

firms; these developments are being spurred

on by the marketing of relatively low-priced

‘‘turnkey” systems—complete packages of

software and hardware which, theoretically,

are ready to use as soon as they are delivered

and installed. While a standard and reasonably

powerful system based on a minicomputer is

7S. B. Newell, A. J. de Geus, and R. A. Rohrer, “Design Auto

mation for Integrated Circuits, ” Science, Apr. 29, 1983, pp.

465-471.

Photo credit Computervision Corp

CAD systems are used frequently in electronics

industries to design and analyze

complex circuit patterns

typically in the $500,000 range, many smaller

microcomputer-based systems have been introduced in the past year for under $100,000,

in some cases for as low as $10,000 to $20,000.

Very low-cost systems which run on common

microcomputers have been introduced, and

these have potential uses in a wide variety of

firms which otherwise might not consider

CAD (see ch. 7). The cost of custom-developed,

specialized systems such as those described

above for aerospace and electronics applications is harder to gauge but runs well into the

millions of dollars.

The potential advantage of CAD for large

as well as small mechanical manufacturing

firms is that it addresses several of the problems in manufacturing referred to at the beginning of this chapter. It facilitates use of previous designs, and allows design changes to

be processed more quickly. Because CAD reduces the time necessary for many design

tasks, it can also improve design by allowing

designers to “try out” a dozen or a hundred

different variations, where previously they

might have been limited to building perhaps

three or four prototype models. It also allows

many drawings to be constructed more quickly, especially with an experienced CAD operator. Comparisons of design time with CAD

range from 0.5 to 100 times as fast as manual

systems, with 2 to 6 times as fast being typical. * For instance, Prototype and Plastic Mold

Corp. in Middletown, Corm., is a small firm

that uses CAD to design short-lived metal

molds for plastic parts. The firm’s president

reported that designs could be produced with

CAD roughly twice as fast as previously. For

example, they received specifications for a

plastic part mold by air express one Saturday

morning, and planned to return the design

drawings by air express that evening-a feat

which, they reported, would have been impossible without CAD.**

Many of these represent comparisons of the time

necessary for a very narrowly defined task, and exclude time

necessary for related tasks on a CAD system such as setting

up the machine, manipulating files, or recovering from a machine failure.

**OTA site visit, protype and Plastic Mold Corp., Middletown, Corm., June 3, 1983. One scientist has pointed out that

the time savings would be even more striking if Prototype and
48 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

.

Other applications of CAD, though not

directly connected to manufacturing, include

mapping, architectural drawing and design,

graphics for technical publishing, and animation and special effects in cinematography.

Computer-Aided Manufacturing (CAM)

Technologies

Computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) is a

widely used term in industrial literature, and

it has various meanings. Here it is defined simply as those types of programmable automation which are used primarily on the factory

floor to help produce products. The following

sections provide functional descriptions of four

CAM tools: robots, numerically controlled machine tools, flexible manufacturing systems,

and automated materials handling systems.

Robots

Robots are manipulators which can be programed to move workplaces or tools along

various paths. Most dictionary definitions describe robots as “human-like,” but industrial

robots bear little resemblance to a human. *

There is some controversy over the definition of a robot. The Japan Industrial Robot

Association, for example, construes almost

any machine that manipulates objects to be

a robot (essentially including the “hard automation” mentioned earlier), while the oftquoted Robotic Industries Association (RIA)

definition** emphasizes that the robot must

Plastic Mold’s staff could have transmitted the design information by telephone computer links; such activities have begun

to be feasible within the last few years.

*In this sense the technical usage of the term “robot” differs from its dictionary definition (and from its roots in literature, in particular Karel Capek’s 1923 novel, R. U.R. (Rossum's

Universal Robots) A Fantastic Melodrama. (Garden City, N. Y.:

Doubleday, Page & Co., 1923). A robot which resembled a

human would be an “android,” in robotics parlance. Such a

machine has not been designed, and there does not appear to

be substantial movement toward human-like robots (except,

perhaps for motion pictures and other entertainment purposes).

Later sections of this chapter will discuss adding certain anthropomorphic characteristics and skills to robots.

● *RIA (a trade association of robot manufacturers, constaants, and users, formerly the Robot Institute of America)

defines a robot as a “reprogrammable multifunctional manipulator designed to move material, parts, tools, or specialized

devices, through variable programed motions for the performance of a variety of tasks. ”

be flexible,

one task to

Photo credit Cincinnati Milacron Corp

A robot used for welding

or relatively easily changed from

another. The RIA definition thus

excludes preset part-transfer machines used

for decades as a part of largebatch and massproduction systems, whose path can be changed

only by mechanically reworking or rearranging the device. Also excluded are “manual

manipulators” or “teleoperators’ ’-devices

directly controlled by a human such as those

for remote handling of radioactive material.

As OTA observed in an earlier report on

this subject,8 industrial robots have a dual

technological ancestry, emerging from: “l) industrial engineering automation technology,

a discipline that stretches historically over a

century; and 2) computer science and artificial

intelligence* technology that is only a few

decades old.” Indeed, there is still a dichotomy

‘Exploratory Workshop on the Social Impacts of Robotics:

Summary and Issues (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Congress, Office

of Technology Assessment, OTA-BP-CIT-11, February 1982).

*Artificial intelligence research seeks to develop computer

systems that can perform tasks which are ordinarily thought

to require human intelligence.
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 4 9

———. — —.

Photo credit Cincinnati Milacron Corp

Robot used for loading and unloading a machine tool

among experts regarding the applications and While it is uncertain to what extent artificial

research directions for robotics. Some empha- intelligence researchers will succeed in develsize the need for anthropomorphic capabilities oping intelligent machines in the next few decin robots such as “intelligence,” vision, and ades, it is certain that robots currently availmobility, while others view robots as simply able, and those likely to be available in the

a more versatile extension of other manufac- next decade, neither look like humans nor have

turing tools. more than a fraction of the dexterity, flexibili-
50 .Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

ty, or intelligence of humans. A more accurate

term for these machines might be “programmable manipulator. ” Nevertheless it is clear

that much of the great popular interest in robotics is rooted in the prevailing vision (or

nightmare) of intelligent robots with humanlike characteristics. Artificial intelligence will

be discussed in more detail in the “Technical

Trends and Barriers” section of this chapter.

How Robots Work.—There are three main

parts of a typical industrial robot: the controller, manipulator, and end-effecter. The controller consists of the hardware and software—

usually involving a microcomputer or microelectronic components—which guides the

motions of the robot and through which the

operator programs the machine. The manipulator consists of a base, usually bolted to the

floor, an actuation mechanism-the electric,

hydraulic, or pneumatic apparatus which

moves the arm-and the arm itself, which can

be configured in various ways to move

through particular patterns. In the arm, “degrees of freedom” –basically, the number of

different joints-determine the robot’s dexterity, as well as its complexity and cost. Finally, the end-effecter, usually not sold as part

of the robot, is the gripper, weld gun, or other

tool which the robot uses to perform its task.

The structure, size, and complexity of the

unit varies depending on the application and

the industrial environment. Robots designed

to carry lighter loads tend to be smaller, and

operated electrically; many heavier units move

their manipulator hydraulically. Some of the

simpler units are pneumatic. Some of the

heaviest material-handling robots and the

newer light-assembly robots are arranged

gantry-style, that is, with the manipulator

hanging from an overhead support. A few robots are mobile to a limited degree, e.g., they

can roll along fixed tracks in the floor or in

their gantry supports.

Similarly, there is a great variety of endeffectors, particularly grippers, most of which

are customized for particular applications.

Grippers are available to lift several objects

at once, or to grasp a fragile object without

damaging it (see fig. 5).

Programing.-There are essentially two

methods of programing a robot. The most

commonly used method is “teaching by guiding. ” The worker either physically guides the

robot through its path, or uses switches on a

control panel to move the arm. The controller

records that path as it is “taught.” Just beginning to emerge is “offline programing,” where

an operator writes a program in computer language at a computer terminal, and directs the

robot to follow the written instructions.

Each method of programing has advantages

that depend on the application. Teaching by

guiding is the simplest and is actually superior

for certain operations: spray painting is an example where it is useful to have the operator

guide the robot arm through its path, because

of the continuous, curved motions usually necessary for even paint coverage. However,

teaching by guiding offers minimal ability to

“edit” a path—i.e., to modify a portion of the

path without re-recording the entire path. Offline programing is useful for several reasons:

1) production need not be stopped while the

robot is being programed; 2) the factory floor

may be an inhospitable environment for programing, whereas offline programing can be

done at a computer terminal in an office; 3) as

computer-aided manufacturing technologies

become more advanced and integrated, they

will increasingly be able to automatically generate robot programs from design and manufacturing data bases; and 4) an offline, written program can better accommodate more

complex tasks, especially those in which

“branching” is involved (e.g., “if the part is

not present, then wait for the next cycle”).

These branching decisions require some kind

of mechanism by which the robot can sense

its external environment. However, the vast

majority of robotic devices are unable to sense

their environment, although they may have internal sensors to provide feedback to their controller on the position of the arm joints.
— — . . .

Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 5 1

. —

Figure 5.—Sample Robot Grippers

u

For small diameters Internal, 3 fingers Fitted to the diameter Fitted to the length

Internal For large objects For cast parts Vacuum, double

u

Vacuum, curved surface Vacuum, several parts Vacuum pad, several parts Vacuum, record player

‘5.’”

Vacuum corrugated surface Balloon lifter, bottles

SOURCE Tech Tran Corp Industrial

Magnet Iifter Magnet lifter

Robots A Summary and Forecast 1983
52 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace — — — . — —

Sensors.–Devices for sensing the external

environment, while often used in conjunction

with robots, are a growing technology in themselves. The simplest sensors answer the question, “Is something there or not?” For example, a light detector mounted beside a conveyor belt can signal when a part has arrived because the part breaks a light beam. Somewhat

more complex are proximity sensors which, by

bouncing sound off objects, can estimate how

far away they are. The technology for these

devices is fairly well-established. But the most

powerful sensors are those which can interpret

visual or tactile information; these have just

begun to become practical.

Ideally, vision sensors could allow a robot

system to respond to changes in its environment, and inspect products, as well as or better than a human could. However, using computers to process images from a video camera

has proven to be an extraordinarily difficult

programing task. Routine variations in lighting, the complexity of the everyday environment, common variations in shape or texture,

and the difference between a 2-D camera image and a 3-D world all complicate the task

of computer processing of a video image.

It is also important that robots be viewed

as part of the overaIl changes taking place

in manufacturing concepts with the increasing diffusion of automated manufacturing

equipment, including computer-aided manufacturing and computer-aided design systems. The impact of new production concepts, equipment and systems on production

control and machine utilisation, inventory

control and management efficiency will together have a much greater productivity impact than the industrial robot alone.

As noted earlier in this chapter, international comparisons of robot “populations” are

also plagued by inconsistencies in the definition of a robot, particularly between the

United States and Japan. Regardless of the

definition of robot used, Japan leads the world

in number of robots in use. The reasons for Japan’s emphasis on robot technology include

a historical shortage of labor, and a tendency

to devote more engineering expertise to manufacturing processes than does the United

States. In addition, the United States faced

Table 6.—Operating Robot Installations, End of 1982

Country Number Percent of total

Other kinds of sensing devices, from proximity sensors to touch and force sensors, have

received much less attention than machine vision, but they also could play an important

role in the factory environment, particularly

for assembly applications. Sensors will be discussed in greater detail later in the chapter.

Applications. –Table 6 displays some of the

most recent robot use estimates. Figure 6 estimates the robot sales and total use in the

United States for the next decade. Such statistics should be interpreted with caution,

however. In particular, the number of robots

in use is a highly imperfect measure of the level of automation and modernization in an industry or country. Process changes in manufacturing which increase productivity may or

may not include robots. As one report on international use of robots observes:9

9

‘OECD, “Robots: The Users and the Makers, ” The OECD

Observer, July 1983.

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......31,900 66

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,301 13

West Germany. ... , ... , ... , 4,300 9

Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,450 3

Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,100 2

France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 993 2

United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . 977 2

Belgium . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 t

Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 285 t

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273 t

Czechoslovakia . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 t

Finland , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 t

Switzerland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 t

Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 t

Denmark . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 t

Austria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 t

Singapore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 t

Korea . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 t

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,428

Less than 1 percent.

Note: This table does not include 9,000 “variable sequenced manipulators”

which are included i n the RIA’s estimate for France. Statistics on robots differ

because of differing definitions of a robot, because of different methodologies

for collecting data, and because “operating robot installations” (as used in this

table) may differ from “robot population, ” which includes some robots in laboratories and others not yet in use A December 1983 study by the U S. International

Trade Commission, for example (“Competitive Position of U S. Producers of

Robotics (in Domestic and World Markets”) gives slightly different figures for robot

population in the United States and West Germany (7 232 and 3,500, respectively)

SOURCE Robot Instutitute of America, Worldwide Robotics Survey and D/rectory,

1983
—

Figure 6.—ActuaI

15(

12[

10(

7:

NOTE”

5(

2!

3 .100

Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 5 3 — — — .

and Projected U.S. Annual Robot Sales and Installed Base Through 1992

133,800

Installed

base

96.100

69,200

50,000

36,300

26,500

19,500

14,400 13,700

10,800

8200 9,800

6200 4500

l,400 ~

19,200

1990

26,900

1991

Annua l

uni t

sale s

37,700

1992 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

Year

The projections above are highly speculative. Robot sales have not grown nearly as fast as most Industry observers expected, and one industry analyst

suggests that the above figures may be as much as 30 to 50 percent too high (E Lustgarten, Vice President, Paine, Webber, Mitchell, Hutchins, Inc

personal communication, Feb 7, 1984) On the other hand, robot vendors and the Robotic Industries Association still believe that a tremendous upsurge

I n robot sales Is forthcoming, and the projections above may even be too low (L Lachowicz, Robotic Industries Association, personal communication

Feb 7, 1984) See ch 7 for further discussion of the robot industry and its prospects

SOURC E Tech Traing A Summary and forecast 1983
54 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

labor surpluses throughout the 1970’s, which

tended to induce manufacturers to use labor

instead of equipment in production. Chapter

9 will discuss international comparisons in

more detail.

Sophistication in reprogramiability, as well

as size and degrees of freedom, are some of the

key cost factors for an industrial robot. A simple “pick-and-place” machine with 2 or 3 degrees of freedom costs roughly $5,000 to

$30,000, while more complex programmable

models, often equipped with microcomputers,

cost approximately $25,000 to $90,000 and

uplo

Table 7 lists some of the potential applications for industrial robots. Many of the first

applications of robots have been for particularly unpleasant or dangerous tasks. One of the

earliest uses, for example, was for loading and

unloading die-casting machines, a hazardous

and unpleasant task because of the extreme

heat. The best-known uses, however, have

been in spray painting and spot welding in the

auto and related industries. In these applications, robots have proven to be useful for performing particularly hazardous and monotonous jobs while offering enough flexibility to

be easily adapted to changes in car models or

body styles.

There are a number of motivations behind

the use of robots on such unpleasant jobs. Improvement of job conditions (and, consequently, worker morale) is one of them, though it

may not be the primary one. Such jobs often

have high worker turnover and inconsistent

product quality because of their unpleasantness. Also, compliance with the occupational

safety and health regulations that protect people performing these tasks adds to production

costs. In addition, tasks like spray painting

and spot welding are often relatively easy to

automate because the paths the robot is to follow are predictable, and the tasks are repetitive and require little sensing capability.

10 E. Lustgarten, Vice President, paine, Webber, Mitchell!

Hutchins, Inc., personal communication.

Table 7.—Examples of Current Robot Applications

Material Handling

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Depalletizing wheel spindles into conveyors

Transporting explosive devices

Packaging toaster ovens

Stacking engine parts

Transfer of auto parts from machine to overhead

conveyor

Transfer of turbine parts from one conveyor to another

Loading transmission cases from roller convveyor to

monorail

Transfer of finished auto engines from assembly to hot

test

Processing of thermometers

Bottle loading

Transfer of glass from rack to cutting line

Machine loading/unloading:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

Loading auto parts for grinding

Loading auto components into test machines

Loading gears onto CNC lathes

Orienting/loading transmission parts onto transfer

machines

Loading hot form presses

Loading transmission ring gears onto vertical lathes

Loading of electron beam welder

Loading cylinder heads onto transfer machines

Loading a punch press

Loading die cast machine

Spray painting:

● Painting of aircraft parts on automated Iine

● Painting of truck bed

Ž Painting of underside of agricultural equipment

. Application of prime coat to truck cabs

● Application of thermal material to rockets

● Painting of appliance components

Welding:

• Spot welding of auto bodies

● Welding front-end loader buckets

Ž Arc welding hinge assemblies on agricultural

equipment

● Braze alloying of aircraft seams

. Arc welding of tractor front weight supports

. Arc welding of auto axles

Machining:

● Drilling alum inure panels on aircraft

● Metal flash removal from casings

● Sanding missile wings

Assembly:

● Assembly of aircraft parts (used with auto-rivet

equipment)

● Riveting small assemblies

● Drilling and fastening metal panels

● Assembling appliance switches

● Inserting and fastening screws

Other:

. Application of two-part urethane gasket to auto part

• Application of adhesive

● Induction hardening

. Inspecting dimensions on parts

● Inspection of hole diameter and walI thickness

SOURCE” Tech Tran Corp , Industrial Robots: A Summary and Forecast, 1983
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 5 5

.——

While spot welding, spray painting, and

loading/unloading applications have been the

primary uses for robots, increasing sophistication in programmability and in sensing is enabling applications such as arc welding and

assembly.

As an example of such an application, a

welder at Emhart Corp. ’s United Shoe Manufacturing plant in Beverly, Mass., uses a

robot to arc-weld frames for shoemaking machinery* (see photo). He welds several dozen

identical frame units at a time; each frame unit

requires perhaps a dozen 2-inch welds to attach reinforcing bars to a steel sheet. The welder clamps the first sheet and reinforcing bars

-———————

*OTA site visit, Emhart Corp., United Shoe Manufacturing

Plant, Beverly, Mass., June 28, 1983.

onto a table. Using directional buttons on a

“teach pendant”—a portable panel attached

to the robot controller-he directs the robot

to the spot where it is to begin the first weld.

He pushes a button to record that location.

Still using the teach pendant, he moves the robot to the end of the weld and records that location. Then he presses a button which instructs the machine to “weld a straight line

from the first point to the second. ” After repeating this process for each of the dozen

welds, he gives the command for the robot to

begin welding, and the robot follows the path

it has been “led through ’’-this time with its

welding gun on. For each subsequent identical

frame unit, all that is required is to clamp

down the parts in the same location as the

original set on which the machine was

Photo credit Emhart Corp

Welder Pete Bolger at Emhart’s United Shoe Manufacturing Plant uses a “teach pendant” to program a robot to weld

parts of a metal frame, below left. After the robot is taught the correct steps, it can repeat those steps with its welding

gun on, while the operator can set up another frame on an adjacent table or perform other duties

27- 4520-84-5 : 0L 3
56 ● computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Worldplace 

.

“taught,” signal the machine to begin, and

then inspect the welds after the machine completes its program. The robot controller can

store several programs, so that the operator

can use the robot to weld different types of

frames in any order he chooses, as long as he

sets up the steel plates and reinforcing bars

in the appropriate positions.

Note that this application of a robot for arc

welding does not use sensors, even though

there has been extensive work done on developing vision sensors that allow the robot to

“see” the seam formed by the two pieces of

metal, and to follow it automatically. For

the fairly simple, straight-line applications at

Emhart, sensors are not necessary. However,

if the frame units were out of position by a

half-inch, the welding robot would put a useless blob of metal where it expected the joint

to be. If a clamp was in the way of a programed weld, the robot would attempt to weld

through the clamp, damaging the clamp and

itself in the process.

The advantages of robots depend on whether one is comparing them to hard automation

devices or to human workers. Clearly, the flexibility and programiability of robots is prominent in the first case, while in comparison

with humans the advantages are likely to be

the robot’s greater consistency, endurance,

and ability to tolerate hostile environments.

The disadvantages of robots also depend on

whether they are compared with other automation or humans. In the former case, robotic

devices are sometimes more expensive than a

hard automation device which is not programmable, and they are not as fast—a typical robot

moves about as fast as a human, while dedicated automatic part-transfer devices can

operate at considerably greater speed. The

clear advantage of human workers over robots, on the other hand, is in situations where

extensive sensing, judgment, or intelligence

is required, and/or where situations change so

frequently that the expense of programing a

robot is uneconomical. For these reasons it is

often suggested that humans, robots, and hard

automation devices are best suited for low,

medium, and high production volumes, respectively, although there are many exceptions to

this-e. g., automotive spot welding. Each situation must be evaluated individually.

The design of automated production processes involves determining which tasks are

most suitable for a machine, and which are

most suitable for a human. Several technology experts have argued that some manufacturers’ visions of robots as replacements for

human workers will prevent the best allocation of tasks between human and machine.

One researcher argues:

A robot is a machine. It should be designed, controlled, and operated as a machine. Any attempt to emulate human behavior with a robot is a misdirection. Take, for

example, the task of turning a bolt. A human

turns down a bolt in roughly half-revolution

increments. At today’state-of-the-art, most

robots are constrained to perform the task

in the same way. But robots need not be constrained the way humans are. The most distal

axis of a robot should be capable of continuous rotation. The primary advantage that robots will have in the manufacturing market

of the future will be based not on their ability to mimic humans, but on their abilities to

perform tasks in ways which humans cannot.11

General-purpose robots are already evolving

toward special-purpose programmable devices

for a particular task (e.g., assembly machines,

painting machines), and this evolution may

continue so that few robots in the future look

like the general-purpose “arm” of today.

Though they will not be covered in detail

here, robotics technology has a wide range of

nonmanufacturing uses including handling of

radioactive material, mining, undersea exploration, and aids for the handicapped.12

1lW. P. Seering, “Directions in Robot Design, ” Transactions

of the ASME, March 1983, pp. 12-13.

‘

z

See, for example, T. N. Sofyanos and T. B. Sheridan, ArI

Assessment of Undersea Tekoperators, Sea Grant College pro

gram, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June, 1980; A.

Seireg and J. Grundman, “Design of a Multitask Exoskeletal

Walking Device,” Biomecham”cs of Meol”cal Devices, D. N.

Ghista (cd.) (New York: Marcel Dekker Inc., 1981), pp. 569-639.
Ch. 3—Programmab/e Automation Technologies ● 5 7

Numerically Controlled Machine Tools

Numerically controlled, or NC, machine

tools are devices which cut a piece of metal according to programed instructions about the

desired dimensions of a part and the steps for

the machining process. They consist of a machine tool, specially equipped with motors to

guide the cutting process, and a controller

which receives numerical control commands.

The U.S. Air Force developed NC technology in the 1940’s and 1950’s, in large part to

help produce complex parts for aircraft which

were difficult to make reliably and economically with a manually guided machine tool.

How They Work. —Machine tools for cutting

and forming metal are the heart of the metalworking industry. Using a conventional, manual machine tool, a machinist guides the shaping of a metal part by hand. He or she moves

either the workpiece or the head of the cutting

tool to produce the desired shape of the part.

The machinist controls the speed of the cut,

the flow of coolant, and all other relevant aspects of the machining process.

Photo credit Cincinnati Milacron Corp

An operator supervises a large, computerized numerically controlled (CNC) machine tool. The minicomputer which controls

the tool is at right; at left additional cutting tools are loaded into an automatic tool changing device
58 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

In ordinary NC machines, programs are

written at a terminal which, in turn, punches

holes in a paper or mylar plastic tape. The tape

is then fed into the NC controller. Each set of

holes represents a command, which is transmitted to the motors guiding the machine tool

by relays and other electromechanical

switches. Although these machines are not

computerized, they are programmable in the

sense that the machine can easily be set to

making a different part by feeding it a different punched tape; and they are automated in

that the machine moves its cutting head, adjusts its coolant, and so forth, without direct

human intervention. However, most of these

machines still require a human operator,

though in some cases there is one operator for

two or more NC machine tools. The operator

supervises several critical aspects of the machine’s operation:

1. he or she has override control to modify

the programed speeds (rate of motion of

the cutting tool) and feeds (rate of cut) (see

fig. 4). These rates will vary depending on

the batch of metal used and the condition

of the cutting tool;

2. he or she watches the quality and dimensions of the cut, and listens to the tool,

replacing worn tools (ideally) before they

fail; and

3. he or she monitors the process to avoid

accidents or damage-e. g., a tool cutting

into a misplaced clamp, or a blocked coolant line.

Typically, NC programs are written in a language called APT (Automatically Programed

Tools), which was developed during the initial

Air Force research on NC (see fig. 7 for a sample of an APT program). A number of modified

versions of APT have been released in the last

decade, and some of these are easier to use

than the original. But the essential concept

and structure of the numerical codes has remained the same. In large part because of the

momentum it gained from its initial DOD support, APT has become a de facto standard for

NC machine tools.

Figure 7.—SampIe APT Computer Program

2.5”

4

!

1 .0”

The path of the center of the cutter is shown as t moves

about the perimeter of the part.

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6) SP .

(7) pl =

(8) L1 =

(9) cl =

(lo) P2 =

(11) L2 =

(12) L3 =

(13)

(14)

(15)

(16)

(17)

(18)

(19)

(20)

PARTNO FLAT PLATE NO 12345678

MACHIN/MODEL PTX

CLPRNT

CUTTER/.25

FE DRAT/1O

POINT/ -.5, – .5,1

POINT/0,0,0

LINE/Pl , ATANGL,O

CIRCLE/2,.5,.5

PO IN T/0,1 ,0

LlNE/P2, PAR LEL, L1

LlNE/P2, PERPTO, L1

FROM/SP

GO/TO, L1

GO RGl”/Ll ,TANTO,C1

GOFWD/Cl ,TANTO, L2

GOFWD/L2, PAST, L3

Go LFT/L3, PAST, L1

GOTO/SP

FIN I

The APT computer program, above, directs a machine tool to cut

around the perimeter of a flat metal part with a semicircular end (see

top diagram) In the program, the first line Identifies the part, and line

(2) calls out the postprocessor for the machine/control combination

that IS to machine the part The postprocessor IS that part of the

computer software program that tailors the tape Instruct Ions for the

particular machine/control combination Line (3) notes that the computer IS to print out the coordinates of all the straight-llne moves of

the cutter Line (4) notes that the cutter iS to have a diameter of O 25

Inches. Line (5) describes the feed rate in inches per minute Lines

(6) through (12) describe the geometry of the part Lines (13) through

(19) are motion statements and describe the path of the cutter Line

(20) ends the part program

SOURCE: J. J. Childs, Princlples of Numerical Control (New York: Industrial Press,

1982, pp. 134-135.

Since 1975, machine tool manufacturers

have begun to use microprocessors in the controller, and some NC machines come equipped

with a dedicated minicomputer. Those called

computerized numerically controlled (CNC)
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 5 9

tend to be equipped with a screen and keyboard for writing or editing NC programs at

the machine. Closely related to CNC is direct

numerical control (DNC), in which a larger

mini- or mainframe computer is used to program and run more than one NC tool simultaneously. As the price of small computers has

declined over the past decade, DNC has

evolved both in meaning and concept into

distributed numerical control, in which each

machine tool has a microcomputer of its own,

and the systems are linked to a central controlling computer. One of the advantages of

such distributed control is that the machines

can often continue working for some time even

if the central computer “goes down. ”

In all types of NC machine tools the machining processes are essentially the same-the difference is in the sophistication and location of

the controller. CNC controllers allow the operator to edit the program at the machine, rather

than sending a tape back to a programer in

a computer room for changes. In addition, by

avoiding the use of paper or mylar tape, CNC

and DNC machines are substantially more reliable than ordinary NC machines. The tape

punchers and readers and the tape itself have

been notorious trouble spots. CNC and DNC

machines, through their computer screens,

may also offer the operator more complete information about the status of the machining

process.

Some NC tools are equipped with a feature

called “adaptive control, ” which tries to automatically optimize the rates of cut to produce the part as fast as possible, while avoiding tool failure. As yet, there has been limited

success with these devices.

Applications. –The diffusion of NC technology into metalworking industry proceeded

very slowly in the 1950’s and 1960’s, though

it has accelerated somewhat over the past 10

years. Figure 8 and table 8 detail the U.S. population of machine tools. Numerically controlled machine tools represent only 4.7 percent of the total population,12 although this fig-

“’’The 13th American Machinist Inventory of Metalworking

Equipment 1983, ” American Machinist, November 1983, pp.

113-144.

Figure 8.—Total Number of Numerically Controlled

Machine Tools in U.S. Metalworking

1958 1963 1968 1973 1977a1983

a 12th Inventory data collected over 3 years 1976 to 1978

SOURCE 13th American Machinist Inventory American Machinist November 1983

Table 8.—Estimated Total Machine Tools

in the United States

Total Metal- Metalunits cutting forming

Metalworking . . . . . . . . . 2,192,754 1,702,833 489,921

Other industries . . . . . . . 380,000 275,000 105,000

Training , . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74,000 70,000 4,000

In storage and surplus . 250,000 200,000 50,000

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,896,754 2,247,833 648,921

SOURCE: 13th Annual American Machinist Inventory and estimates, American

Machinist, November 1983

ure may be somewhat misleading: the newer,

NC machine tools tend to be used more than

the older equipment, and firms often keep old

equipment even when they buy new machines.

Some industry experts have estimated that as

many as half of the parts made in machine

shops are made using NC equipment. Nevertheless, the applications still tend to be concentrated in large firms and in smaller subcontractors in the aerospace and defense industries.

Two examples from OTA’S case studies illustrate a range of uses for NC machine tools.

A Connecticut machine shop with 48 employees on the shop floor began using numerical

control technology around 1966, and now uses

23 NC machines to produce contracted parts

for the electronics and aircraft industries. By

contrast, one of the NC machine shops at a

large commercial aerospace manufacturer oc-
60 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

-.. .— — —

cupies 471,000 square feet—about the size of

18 football fields–and includes 110 NC and

CNC machine tools, as well as 230 conventional machine tools.

The U.S. machine tool population is significantly older than that of most other countries

(see table 9), and this situation, suggesting relatively low levels of capital investment, has

been a source of concern for many in industry

and government. In 1983, for the first time in

several decades, the percentage of metalcutting tools less than 10 years old increased by

3 percent, although the percentage of metalforming tools less than 10 years old remains

at an all-time low of 27 percent.15

DOD has encouraged diffusion of NC technology, which has moved beyond the aerospace industry—although not nearly as fast

as most observers expected. There are several

reasons for the relatively slow diffusion of NC

technology. They include high capital cost for

an NC machine (perhaps $80,000 to $150,000

and up, as opposed to $10,000 to $30,000 for

a conventional machine tool).16 In addition, the

successful application of NC machine tools requires technical expertise that is in short supply in many machine shops. Training is a problem, as some users report requiring as much

as 2 years “to get an NC programer up to

speed. “17 Small machine shops typically do not

have the resources or expertise to train staff

to use or maintain computerized equipment.

Finally, “APT proved to be too complicated

for most users outside the aerospace industry. . . . Most machine jobs could be specified

in a considerably less complex world. ”18

However, intricate shapes such as those now

found in the aerospace industry are nearly impossible for even the most experienced ma140TA work environment case studies.

“’’The 13th American A4achiiu”st Inventory of Metalworking

Equipment 1983, ” American Mac)u”m”st, November 1983.

1eE. Lustgarten, Vice President, Paine, Webber, Mitchell,

Hutchins, Inc., personal communication.

17A. M. Greene, “Is It Time for a New Approach to NC Programming?” Iron Age, Sept. 24, 1982, p. 83. The need for substantial training applies not only to NC machine tools but to

virtually all PA devices.

“Industry and Trade Strategies, unpublished paper prepared

for OTA, April 1983, p. 28.

chinist using conventional machine tools. With

NC, the parts can be more consistent because

the same NC program is used to make the part

each time it is produced. A manually guided

machine tool is more likely to produce parts

with slight variations, because the machinist

is likely to use a slightly different procedure

each time he or she makes a part. This may

not be a problem for one-of-a-kind or custom

production, but can cause headaches in batch

production. The advantages in consistency

due to NC are seen by many manufacturers

as an increase in their control over the machining process.

NC machines tend to have a higher “throughput” than conventional machine tools, and

hence are more productive. They are operating

(i.e., cutting metal) more of the time than a

conventional machine tool because all the

steps are established before the machining

begins and are followed methodically by the

machine’s controller. Further, on a complex

part that takes more than one shift of machining on a conventional machine tool, it is very

difficult for a new machinist to take over

where the first left off. The part may remain

clamped to the machine and the part and machine tool lie idle until the original machinist

returns. On NC machines, operators can substitute for each other relatively easily, allowing the machining to continue uninterrupted.

As discussed previously, the capability of

guiding machine tools with numeric codes

opens up possibilities for streamlining the

steps between design and production. The go

metric data developed in drawing the product

on a CAD system can be used to generate the

NC program for manufacturing the product.

Flexible Manufacturing Systems

A flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is

a production unit capable of producing a range

of discrete products with a minimum of manual intervention. It consists of production

equipment workstations (machine tools or

other equipment for fabrication, assembly, or

treatment) linked by a materials-handling system to move parts from one workstation to
Table 9.—Age of Machine Tools in Seven Industrial Nations

- —

Metalcutting machines

.

Metalforming machines

Year Units — O-2 yr 6-4 yr 0-9 yr >15 yr >20 yr Units o-2 yr O-4 yr O-9 yr >15 yr >20 yr

United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 1,703,000 — 14 % 34 ”/0 — 320/o 490,000 — 90/0 180/0 — 37 “/0

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 149,400 — — 41 — 37 61,400 — – 23 – 26

Federal Republic of Germany. 80 985,000 – 15 34 480/o — 265,000 — 15 34 48 ‘/o

France ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 584,000 – 16 35 – 32 177,000 — 16 35 – 32

Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75 408,300 — — 41C — 29’ 133,000 — — 29 C — 25’

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 707,000 150/0 — 35b

37 d — 211,000 180/0 — 41 b

31 d —

United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 627,900 – 41 a — — 27 146,800 — 48 a — — 28

a 0-5 years old” bO-7 years old C0.8 years old. ’13 years old and UP. ’18 Years old and UP

SOURCE 13th American Machinist Inventory, Arnerlcan ?dachln(sf, November 1983 (Note Amerfcan Machlnlst used a variety of foreign sources for this table)

I

●

)
62 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

another, and it operates as an integrated system under full programmable control.19

An FMS is often designed to produce a family of related parts, usually in relatively small

batches–in many cases less than 100, and

even as low as one. Most systems appropriately considered to be an FMS include at least

four workstations, and some have up to 32.

Smaller systems of two or three machine tools

served by a robot, which are sometimes called

flexible manufacturing systems, are more appropriately termed “machining cells. ”

How an FYWS Works.– Using NC programs

and (often) computer-aided process planning,

workers develop the process plan (i.e., the sequence of production steps) for each part that

the FMS produces. Then, based on inventory,

orders, and computer simulations of how the

FMS could run most effectively, the FMS

managers establish a schedule for the parts

that the FMS will produce on a given day.

Next, operators feed the material for each part

“M. E. Merchant, personal communication, Oct. 12, 1983.

Adapted from a definition developed by the International Institution for Production Engineering Research.

into the system, typically by clamping a block

of metal into a special carrier that serves both

as a fixture to hold the part in place while it

is being machined, and as a pallet for transporting the workpiece. Once loaded, the FMS

essentially takes over. Robots, conveyors, or

other automated materials handling devices

transport the workpiece from workstation to

workstation, according to the process plan. If

a tool is not working, many FMSS can reroute

the part to other tools that can substitute.

Machine tools are not the only workstations

in an FMS; other possible stations include

washing or heat-treating machines, and automatic inspection devices. While most current

FMSS consist of groups of machine tools,

other systems anticipated or in operation involve machines for grinding, sheet metal working, plastics handling, and assembly.

The amount of flexibility necessary to deserve the label “flexible” is arguable. Some

FMSS can produce only three or four parts of

very similar size and shape—e.g., three or four

engine blocks for different configurations of

engines. One FMS expert argues, however,

IIlusfration credit: Cincinnati Milacron Corp

Schematic diagram of an FMS for producing aircraft parts. The lines indicate paths of automatic devices which bring

workplaces to the machines
Ch, 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 6 3

—

Photo credit: Cincinati Corp

An FMS system for tank parts
64 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

that in the current state of the technology, a

system that cannot produce at least 20 to 25

different parts is not flexible. Indeed, some are

being designed to manufacture up to 500

parts. 20

The essential features that constitute a

workable “part family” for an FMS are:

●

●

●

●

A common shape. —In particular, prismatic (primarily flat surfaces) and rotational

parts cannot be produced by the same set

of machines.

Size.–An FMS will be designed to produce parts of a certain maximum size,

e.g., a 36-inch cube. Parts larger or much

smaller than that size cannot be handled.

Material. -Titanium and common steel

parts cannot be effectively mixed, nor can

metal and plastic.

Tolerance. –The level of precision

necessary for the set of parts must be in

a common range.

Applications. –For a manufacturer with an

appropriate part family and volume to use an

FMS, the technology offers substantial advantages over stand-alone machine tools. In an

ideal FMS arrangement, the company’s expensive machine tools are working at near full

capacity. Turnaround time for manufacture of

a part is reduced dramatically because parts

move from one workstation to another quickly and systematically, and computer simulations of the FMS help determine optimal routing paths. Most systems have some redundancy in processing capabilities and thus can automatically reroute parts around a machine

tool that is down. Because of these time savings, work-in-process inventory can be drastically reduced. The company can also decrease its inventory of finished parts, since it

can rely on the FMS to produce needed parts

on demand.

Finally, FMS can reduce the “economic

order quantity” for a given part-the batch

size necessary to justify setup costs. When a

part has been produced once on an FMS, setup

20B JOhOSki, Mm~r, Manufacturing Systems Division, Cincinnati Milacron Corp., interview, Aug. 16, 1983.

costs for later batches are minimal because

process plans are already established and

stored in memory, and materials handling is

automatic. In the ultimate vision of an FMS,

the machine could produce a one-part batch

almost as cheaply as it could produce 1,000,

in cost per unit. In practice there are unavoidable setup costs for apart and a one+part batch

is uneconomical. Nevertheless, the FMS’s capability to lower the economic order quantity

is particularly useful in an economy in which

manufacturers perceive an increased demand

for product customization and smaller batch

sizes. *

A Midwestern agricultural equipment manufacturer, for example, uses an FMS to machine transmission case and clutch housings

for a family of tractors (see photo). They had

considered “hard automation ”-a transfer

line–to manufacture the parts, but expected

*ln defense production, several examples of the very high Cost

of spare parts have come to light. In part because the set up

cost for producing parts is so high, the Pentagon’s contractors

may charge thousands of dollars for producing one or two small

parts. The traditional solution to this problem is to make spare

parts when the original equipment is bought, and keep the

spares on hand. However, studies indicate that more than 95

percent of those spare parts are never used. An FMS could

substantially reduce the cost for making a small number of parts

because once a part has been made on the system and the tooling and production routing already established, setup costs are

relatively low.

Photo credit: Deere & Co,

A worker obtains status information from a computer

terminal at one of the workstations of an FMS for

producing agricultural equipment
—. — — —

Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 6 5

—

a new generation of transmissions within 5

years, which would render the transfer line obsolete. They chose an FMS instead because it

could be more easily adapted to other products. In the system, a supervisory computer

controls 12 computerized machining centers

and a system of chain-driven carts which shuttle the fixtured parts to the appropriate machines. The supervisory computer automatically routes parts to those machines with the

shortest queue of workplaces waiting, and can

reroute parts to avoid a disabled machine tool.

About a dozen employees operate and maintain the system during the day shift, and there

are even fewer people on the other two shifts.

The system is designed to produce nine part

types in almost any sequence desired. (Thus,

it is rather inflexible according to the current

state of the art.) It was, in fact, one of the

earliest FMSS of substantial size to be designed. It was ordered in 1978, but not fully

implemented until 1981.21

Another example of FMS application is a

system operating at Messerschmitt-BolkowBlohm’s plant in Augsburg, West Germany,

to manufacture the center section of Tornado

fighter planes at a rate of about 10 per month.

The system includes 28 NC machine tools, automatic systems for cutting-tool changing and

workpiece transport, and complete computer

control. One observer reports:

The system has demonstrated remarkable

efficiencies. They find that the machines in

the system are cutting metal, on the average,

about 75 percent, or more, of the time—i.e.,

machine utilization is 75 percent better. Lead

time for production of a Tornado is only 18

months, compared to about 30 months for

planes produced by more conventional

means. The system reduced the number of

NC machines required (compared to doing

the same job with stand-alone NC machines)

by 52,6 percent, required personnel by 52.6

percent, required floor place [sic] by 42 percent, part through-put time by 25 percent, total production time by 52.6 percent, tooling

cost by 30 percent, total annual costs by 24

210TA work environment case study.

percent and capital investment costs by 10

percent. 22

Finally, a Fanuc Ltd. factory near Mt. Fuji

in Japan has received a great deal of attention

and is similarly impressive. The factory produces industrial robots and various CNC tools.

It has two automated storage and retrieval

systems (these are described in the next section) as well as an automated materials handling system to deliver materials to workstations. Automatic pallet changers and robots

are used to load and unload machine teds from

the automatic materials handling vehicles, and

the plant makes extensive use of unmanned

machining at night. The 29 machining centers

are attended by 19 workers during the day

shift, while at night no one is on the machining

floor, and one worker monitors the operation

from a control room. Several other areas of

this factory are not automated, however—notably, assembly and inspection.23

The chief problems related to an FMS arise

from its complexity and cost. Several years of

planning are needed for such a system, and installing and maintaining an FMS is likely to

require a higher degree of technical expertise

than manufacturers may have available. Finally, because FMS is a system of interdependent

tools, reliability problems tend to magnify. In

particular, the materials handling portions of

FMS are notoriously troublesome. (See below.)

Despite the advantages claimed for FMS,

the systems are still relatively rare. Observers

estimate that there are 20 to 30 of such systems in Japan, 20 each in Western and Eastern Europe, and 20 to 30 in the United States.24

The reasons for this scarcity of application include the complexity, newness and cost of the

~XM@ E. Me~h~t, “tint Status of, and potential for, Au@

mation in the Metalworking Manufacturing Industry, ” Amds

of the CIRP, vol. 32, no. 2, 1983.

“Ibid; D. Nitzan, “Robotics in Japan-A Trip Report, ” SRI

International, February 1982.

“’’C AM, An International Comparison, American Mdu”rIist, November, 1981, pp. 207-226; W. Dostal, A. W. Kamp, M.

Lahner, and W. P. Seesle, “Flexible Manufacturing Systems

and Job Structures” (Mitteilungen aus der arbeitsmarkt and

berufsforschung), 1982. Reliable statistics on FMS are difficult

to obtain because of conflicting definitions of an FMS and the

early stage of the technology’s development.
66 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— —

systems. One American manufacturer estimated

that FMS cost $600,000 to $800,000 per machining workstation, with a minimum expenditure

of $3 million to $4 million.2s In addition, the inhouse costs of planning for installation of an

FMS–a process which often takes several

years-are likely to substantially increase the

investment in an FMS.

Automated Materials Handling Systems

Automated materials handling (AMH) systems store and move products and materials

under computer control. Some AMH systems

are used primarily to shuttle items to the work

areas or between workstations on automated

carts or conveyors. Automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS) are another form of

automated materials handling, essentially

comprising an automated warehouse where

parts are stored in racks and retrieved on computerized carts and lift trucks. For the purposes of this report, this category includes

only those materials handling systems which

are not classified as robots.

How AMH Systems Work.–There are a

wide variety of formats for automated materials handling. They include conveyors, monorails, tow lines, motorized carts riding on

tracks, and automated carriers which follow

wires embedded in the floor of the factory.

Each AMH system is unique, and each is designed for the materials handling needs of a

particular factory. The common characteristic

of these devices is that they are controlled by

a central computer.

There are three general applications for AMH.

The first is to shuttle workplaces between stations on an FMS. In this case, the AMH system operates on commands from the FMS controller. For example, when the controller

receives a message that a machine tool has finished work on a certain workpiece, the controller orders the AMH system to pick up the

workpiece and deliver it to the next workstation in its routing. The materials handling portion of the FMS is one of its trickiest ele26B. Johoski, Manager, Manufacturing Systems Division, Cincinnati Milacron Corp., interview, Aug. 16, 1983.

Photo credit’ Cincinnati Milacron Corp

Automated guided vehicle (also known as a “robot

cart”) follows wires embedded in the floor of the

factory in order to shuttle workplaces from one part

of the plant to another

ments—part transport needs tend to be logistically complicated, and the AMH system

must place the part accurately and reliably for

machining. Many AMH systems, such as conveyors or tow chains, are serial in nature—

i.e., there is only one path from Point A to

Point B. This has caused FMSS to cease operating when a cart becomes stuck or a critical path becomes unusable. FMS designers

have responded to this problem by designing

AMH systems with backup paths, or by using

systems such as the wire-guided vehicle mentioned earlier, which can be routed around

disabled carts or other obstacles.

The second major application of AMH is for

transporting work-in-process from one manufacturing stage to the next within a factory.

This application is similar in concept to AMH

use for a flexible manufacturing system, although serving an entire factory is more complex. There is more area to cover, more potential obstacles and logistical difficulties in
CH. 3—Prograrnrnable Automation Technologies ● 67 —— ——

establishing paths for the AMH carriers, and

a wider range of materials to handle. For this

reason, whole-factory AMH systems are not

yet widely used. However, General Motors has

recently agreed to purchase automatic guided

vehicles from Volvo which allow automobiles

to proceed independently through the plant

while being assembled. The “robot carts” can

be programed to stop at appropriate workstations, and the cart system essentially replaces

an assembly line. Volvo uses about 2,000 of

the carts in its own plants in Europe.26 Fiat

also uses such carts in Italy.

The final application for AMH is in automated storage and retrieval systems. These

systems are often very tall in order to conserve

space and to limit the number of automatic

carrier devices needed to service the facility.

In many cases the structure housing the AS/

26+. Walter, “Volvo Will Build Robot Carts, ” The Detroit

News, Sept. 27, 1983.

Photo credit Cincinnati Milacron Corp

An automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS),

with a computer terminal showing its status. An

“automatic stacker crane” (top, center) operates under

computer control

RS is built separately adjacent to the main factory building. Design of an AS/RS depends on

the size of the products stored, the volume of

material to be stored, and the speed and frequency of items moving in and out of the system. Advocates of AS/RS cite advantages for

the system, as compared to nonautomated

systems, which include lowered land needs,

fewer (but more highly trained) staff, more accurate inventory records, and lower energy

use.

Applications. –In theory, AMH systems

can move material quickly, efficiently, and reliably, and keep better track of the location

and quantities of the parts by use of the computer’s memory, thus avoiding much paperwork. They can minimize loss of parts in a factory, which is a common problem in materials handling.

Deere & Co., for example, uses an extensive

AS/RS to store materials and inventory at one

of its tractor plants.27 The system’s computerized controller keeps track of the products

stored on the shelves, and workers can order

the system to retrieve parts from the shelves

by typing commands at a computer terminal.

After they are retrieved from the AS/RS, the

parts can be automatically carried by overhead conveyors to the desired location within

the plant complex.

IBM’s Poughkeepsie plant is planning an

AMH conveyor cart system for transporting

a 65-pound computer subassembly fixture

between assembly and testing stations. The

manufacturing manager reports that the decision to adopt this system was prompted by

logistical difficulties in keeping track of many

such fixtures among a great variety of workstations, as well as by worker health problems

related to transporting the fixtures manually. *

AMH systems often have reliability problems in practice. A Deere & Co. executive related an anecdote at a recent National Re2

’G. H. Millar, vice president, Engineering, Deere & Co., address to National Research Council seminar on “The Future

of Manufacturing in the United States, ” Washington, D. C., Apr.

13, 1983.

*OTA si~ visit, IBM Corp., Poughkeepsie, NY, June 9, 1983.
68 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—.—.. — —— -— —

search Council symposium.28 Deere’s AS/RS

was systematically reporting that they had

more engines stored on the racks than other

records indicated. After long weeks of searching for the problem they finally found the

culprit: A leak in the roof was allowing water

to drip past the photocell that counted the engines as they were stored. In essence each drip

became an engine in the computer’s inventory.

Although Deere’s experience is doubtless

not widely applicable to AS/RSs, the notion

that AMH systems seem to present unexpected logistical and mechanical problems

does seem to be generally accurate. Even

though these systems are a key aspect of flexible manufacturing systems and of computerintegrated manufacturing, materials handling

has long been a neglected topic in industrial

research. Materials handling system manufacturers have only recently “caught up” to

other industrial systems in level of sophistication, and few companies have so far installed

sophisticated AMH systems. Because of this

relative lack of sophistication, materials handling for FMS and CIM, especially for a complex application such as delivery of multiple

parts to an assembly station, may be one of

the biggest problems facing integrated automation. 29

Other CAM Equipment

While they will not be addressed in detail,

there are several other kinds of programmable

automation equipment used in manufacturing.

They include:

Ž Computer-aided inspection and test

equipment. — For mechanical parts, the

most prominent such device is the Coordinate Measuring Machine, which is a

programmable device capable of automatic and precise measurements of parts. A

28G. Milk, op. cit.

“B. Roth, professor of mechanical engineering, Stanford

University, “Principles of Automation, ” address to the Unilever

Symposium on Future Directions in Manufacturing Technology,

Apr. 6-7, 1983; and J. Apple, senior vice president, Systecon,

Inc., “Retrieval and Distribution Systems-A Pivotal Part of

Future Process Planning, ” address to Technology Transfer

Society Symposium on Factory of the Future, Oct. 26-28, 1983.

Photo credit National Bureau of Standards

A Coordinate Measuring Machine uses a tiny but

precise probe (center) to automatically

measure parts

great variety of inspection and test equipment is also used for electronic parts.

IBM’s Poughkeepsie plant, mentioned

above, performs the vast majority of its

testing of microprocessor modules with

automatic devices built in-house. In addition, robots can be used as computeraided inspection and test devices; several

two-armed, gantry-style robots are used

at IBM to test the wiring for computer

circuit boards.* In the test, thousands of

pairs of pins on the circuit board must be

tested to make sure that they are correctly wired together. Each arm of the robot

is equipped with an electronic needle-like

probe, and by touching its probes to each

*OTA site visit, IBM Corp., Poughkeepsie, N. Y., June 9*

1983.
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● — —

69

—

pair of pins and passing an electronic signal through the probes, the robot’s control computer can determine whether the

circuit board’s wiring is “OK.”

● Electronics assembly. —Increasingly, programmable equipment is used to insert

components— resistors, capacitors, diodes, etc.—into printed circuit boards.

One such system, Dyna-Pert, manufactured by a subsidiary of the Emhart

Corp., is capable of inserting 15,000 parts

per hour. A programmable machine assembles spools of electronic parts in the

right order for insertion into the circuit

board, and another machine inserts the

components.

● Process control. –Programm able controllers (PCs) are being used extensively in

both continuous-process and discretemanufacturing industries. PCs are small,

dedicated computers which are used to

control a variety of production processes.

They are useful when a set of electronic

or mechanical devices must be controlled

in a particular logical sequence, as in a

transfer line where the conveyor belt must

be sequenced with other tools, or in heat

treatment of metals in which the sequence

of steps and temperature must be controlled very precisely. Until the late

1960’s, PCs were comprised of mechanical

relays, and were “hard-wired’ ’–one had

to physically rewire the device to change

its function or order of processes. Modern

PCs are computerized, and can typically

be reprogrammed by plugging a portable

computer terminal into the PC. A computerized PC is not only more easily reprogrammed than a hard-wired device, but is

also capable of a wider range of functions.

Modern PCs, for example, are often used

not only to control production processes

but also to collect information about the

process. PCs and numerical control devices for machine tools are very similar

in concept—essentially, NCS are a specialized form of PC designed for controlling

a machine tool.

Programmable Automation and

Manufacturing Management

Several kinds of computerized tools are

becoming available to assist in management

and control of a manufacturing operation. The

essential common characteristic of computerized tools for management is their ability to

manipulate and coordinate “data bases”-

stores of accumulated information about each

component of the manufacturing process. The

ability to quickly and effectively get access to

these data bases is an extraordinarily powerful management tool–what was a chaotic and

murky manufacturing process can become

much more organized, and its strengths and

weaknesses more apparent. The following section describes some of these tools, as well as

the notion of “computer-integrated manufacturing, ” which is not a tool or technology in

itself but rather a strategy for organizing and

controlling the factory.

Management Information Systems

Manufacturers use and store information on

designs, inventory, outstanding orders, capabilities of different machines, personnel, and

costs of raw materials, among other things.

In even a modestly complex business operation, these data bases become so large and intricate that complex computer programs must

be used to sort the data and summarize it efficiently. Management information systems

(MIS) perform this function, providing reports

on such topics as current status of production,

inventory and demand levels, and personnel

and financial information.

Before the advent of powerful computers

and management information systems, some

of the information which MIS now handle was

simply not collected. In other cases, the collection and digestion of the information required dozens of clerks. Beyond saving labor,

however, MIS bring more flexible and more

widespread access to corporate information.

For example, with just a few seconds of computer time a firm’s sales records can be listed
70 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

by region for the sales staff, by dollar amount

for the sales managers, and by product type

for production staff. Perhaps most importantly, the goal for MIS is that the system should

be so easy to use that it can be used directly by

top-level managers.*

Computer-Aided Planning

Computer-aided planning systems sort the

data bases for inventory, orders, and staff, and

help factory management schedule the flow of

work in the most efficient manner. Manufacturing resources planning (MRP) is perhaps

the best-known example of computer-aided

planning tools.** MRP can be used not only to

tie together and summarize the various data

bases in the factory, but also to juggle orders,

inventory, and work schedules, and to optimize decisions in running the factory. In some

cases these systems include simulations of the

factory floor so as to predict the effect of different scheduling decisions. MRP systems

have applicability for many types of industry

in addition to metalworking.

Another kind of computer-aided planning

tool is computer-aided process planning

(CAPP), used by production planners to establish the optimal sequence of production operations for a product. There are two primary

types of CAPP systems—variant and generative.

The variant type, which represents the vast

majority of such systems currently in use, relies heavily on group technology (GT). In GT,

a manufacturer classifies parts produced according to various characteristics: e.g., shape,

size, material, presence of teeth or holes, and

tolerances. In the most elaborate GT systems,

each part may have a 30- to 40-digit code. GT

makes it easier to systematically exploit similarities in the nature of parts produced and

*sometime9 the terms “rnanagernent information system”

and “data base management system” (DBMS) are used interchangeably. MIS tends to refer to a more powerful and compre

hensive DBMS aimed for use by relatively high-level staff.

**TWO forms of MRP me mentioned in industry literature.

The earlier version was materials requirements planning, a more

limited form of computer-aided planning system for ordering

and managing inventory. Manufacturing resources planning is

sometimes known as MRP II to distinguish it from this earlier

notion.

in machining processes to produce them. The

theory is that similar parts are manufactured

in similar ways. So, for example, a process

planner might define a part, using GT classification techniques, as circular with interior

holes, 6‘ ‘ diameter, 0.01 ‘ ‘ tolerance, and so

forth. Then, using a group technology-based

CAPP system, the planner could recall from

computer memory the process plan for a part

with a similar GT classification, and edit that

plan for the new, but similar, part.

Generative process planning systems, on the

other hand, attempt to generate an ideal routing for a part based on information about the

part and sophisticated rules about how such

parts should be handled, and the capabilities

of machines in the plant. The advantage of

such systems is that process plans in variant

systems may not be optimal. A variant system uses as its foundations the best guesses

of an engineer about how to produce certain

parts. The variants on that process plan may

simply be variations on one engineer’s bad

judgment.

Though generative CAPP may also depend

on group technology principles, it approaches

process planning more systematically. The

principle behind such systems is that the accumulated expertise of the firm’s best process

planners is painstakingly recorded and stored

in the computer’s memory. Lockheed-Georgia,

for example, developed a generative CAPP

system called Genplan to create process plans

for aircraft parts (see photo for an example of

a process plan developed by Genplan). Engineers assign each part a code based on its geometry, physical properties, aircraft model,

and other related information. Planners can

then use Genplan to develop the routing for

the part, the estimated production times, and

the necessary tooling. Lockheed-Georgia officials report that one planner can now do work

that previously required four to eight people,

and that a planner can be trained in 1 year instead of 3 to 4.*

*OTA site visit, Lockheed-Georgia, Mar. 10-11, 1983. Genplan

was derived from a generative CAPP system developed by Computer Aided Manufacturing-International-a consortium for

progr ammable automation research (see ch. 8).
—.

— —

.

. .

... , .

L

. ,

. . . . ..+

.

. . ~ (

/ ( .

b“’ ”

Ch. 3—Programrnab/e Automation Technologies ● 71

.—

’ 

. . , , ( ,

Photo credit Lockheed. Georgia Corp

An excerpt from a process plan developed by the “Genplan” system

Computer-Integrated Manufacturing

Computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM,

pronounced “sire”) involves the integration

and coordination of design, manufacturing,

and management using computer-based systems. Computer-integrated manufacturing is

not yet a specific technology that can be purchased, but rather an approach to factory organization and management.

Computer-integrated manufacturing was

first popularized by Joseph Harrington’s book

of the same name, published in 1974. One systems expert recounts the history of the concept in this way:

ICIM] came about from: 1) The realization

that in many cases automation for discrete

activities in manufacturing, such as design

or machining, in fact often decreased the effectiveness of the entire operation–e.g., designers could conceive parts with CAD that

could not be made in the factory; NC machine

tools required such elaborate setup that they

could not be economically programmed or

used. 2) Development of large mainframe

computers supported by data base management systems (DBMS) and communications

capabilities with other computers. The

DBMS and communications allowed functional areas to share information with one

another on demand. 3) The dawning of the mi -

crocomputer age which began to allow machines in the factory to be remotely programmed, to talk to each other and to report

their activity to their ultimate source of

instruction .30

soD Wi~no9ky, ~oupvice president, GCA COW., Industri~

Systems Group, personal communication, October 1983.

Wisnosky is a former director of the U.S. Air Force Integrated

Computer-Aided Manufacturing Program (ICAM).

. ‘, -~ ‘, .’ } – &j LI – ,, : ,,1, >,
72 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Though there is no quantitative measure of

integration in a factory, and definitions of

CIM vary widely, the concept has become a

lightning rod for technologists and industrialists seeking to increase productivity and exploit the computer in manufacturing. For example, James Lardner, vice president of Deere

& Co., sees the current state-of-the-art manufacturing process as a series of “islands of

automation, ” in which machines perform tasks

essentially automatically, connected by “human bridges. ” The ultimate step, he argues,

is to connect those islands into an integrated

whole through CIM and artificial intelligence

(described in the next section of this chapter),

replacing the human bridges with machines.

In this essentially “unmanned factory, ” humans would then perform only the tasks that

require creativity, primarily those of conceptual design. Lardner’s vision is echoed by

many other prominent experts.

Experts differ in their assessment of how

long it might take to achieve this vision—virtually no one believes that it is attainable in

less than 10 to 15 years, while some experts

would say an unmanned factory is at least

three decades away. More importantly, there

are other technologists who argue that the vision may, in fact, be just a dream. For example, Bernard Roth, professor of mechanical engineering at Stanford University, argues that

factories will, in reality, reach an appropriate

and economical level of automation and then

the trend toward automation will level off. In

a sense, the difference between these two

views may be a difference of degree rather

than kind. For many factories, the “appropriate” level of automation might indeed be very

high. In others, however, a fair number of humans will remain, though they may be significantly fewer than is currently the case.

Integrated systems are often found to require more human input than was expected.31

Indeed, as one engineer explains:32

31This phenomenon has been noted in a variety of places, including OTA work environment case studies, and the OTA

Automation Technology Workshop, May 29, 1983.

32B, Bums, Manufacturing Technology Group Engineer,

Lockheed-Georgia Co., cited in “Considering People Before Implementation, ” CAD/CAM Technology, fall 1983, p. 6.

There is much talk about the totally

automated factory—the factory of the future—and night shifts where robots operate

the factory. Whereas these situations will

develop in some cases . . . many manufacturing facilities will not be fully automated.

Even those that are will involve humans in

system design, control, and maintenance—

and the factory will operate within a corporate organization of managers and planners.

These two views do have important significance for how an industrialist might now proceed. Many who hold the vision of the unmanned factory seem to emphasize technologies, such as robotics, that can remove humans from manufacturing. Those who do not

share the vision of “unmanned manufacturing’ tend to argue that there are more practical ways to enhance productivity in manufacturing, including redesigning products for ease

of fabrication and assembly.

How CIM Works.—There are two different

schemes for CIM: In vertically integrated

manufacturing, a designer would design a

product using a CAD system, which would

then translate the design into instructions for

production on CAM equipment. Management

information systems and computer-aided planning systems would be used to control and

monitor the process. A horizontal approach to

integration, on the other hand, would attempt

to coordinate only the manufacturing portion

of the process; i.e., a set of computer-aided

manufacturing equipment on the factory floor

is tied together and coordinated by computer

instructions. A flexible manufacturing system

would be a good example of such horizontal

integration. * Vertically integrated manufacturing is what is most commonly meant by

CIM, however, and many experts would consider horizontal or “shop floor” integration to

be only partial CIM. Figure 9 is a conceptual

framework for CIM which illustrates the role

of some of the PA technologies at various

levels of factory control.

*Vertical and horizontal integration of programmable automation equipment should not be confused with vertical and

horizontal integration in the markets for selling this equipment;

this will be discussed in chapter 7.
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 7 3 ——— — —— —— —

Plan

Figure 9.— Programmable Automation Factory Hierarchy (Simplified)

\

Computer ,

Integrated \ Factory /

Strategizel

manufacturing

Integrated

software

System network

Robotics

/ /

— Station — Move/manipulate

Any manufacturing

process Process Make

SOURC GCA Corp Industrial Systems Group

A vertically integrated factory usually implies maximum use and coordination of all PA

technologies, and can involve much more centralized control of manufacturing processes

than a nonintegrated production process.

Communication and shared data bases are

especially important for CIM. For example,

CAD systems must be able to access data

from inventory on the cost of raw materials,

and from CAM systems on how to adapt the

design to facilitate manufacture. Computeraided manufacturing systems must be able to

interpret the CAD design and establish efficient process plans. And management computer tools should be able to derive up-to-date

summary and performance information from

both CAD and CAM data bases, and effective

ly help manage the manufacturing operation.

Some parts of the above requirements are

already possible, while others seem far on the

horizon. Factory data bases now tend to be

completely separate, with very different structures to serve different needs. In particular,

the extensive communications between CAD

and CAM data bases will require more

sophistication in both CAD and CAM,

research on how to establish such communications, and finally, major changes in traditional

v Implemen t

factory data structures in order to implement

such a system.

Ap@’cations. -CIM sounds like utopia to

many manufacturers because it promises to

solve nearly all of the problems in manufacturing that were identified in the section on

“the manufacturing process” at the beginning

of this chapter, and in particukir it promises

to dramatically increase managerial control

over the factory. Design changes are easy with

extensive use of CAD; CAP and MIS systems

help in scheduling; FMS and other CAM

equipment cut turnaround time for manufacture, minimize production costs, and greatly

increase equipment utilization; connections

from CAD to CAM help create designs that

are economical to manufacture; control and

communication is excellent, with minimal

paper flow; and CAM equipment minimizes

time loss due to setup and materials handling.

@Many of the companies which make extensive use of computers view their factories as

examples of CIM, but on close examination

their integration is horizontal-in the manufacturing area only–or at best includes primarily manufacturing and management. Boeing, however, has made substantial strides
74 . computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

toward a common design and manufacturing systems, has embarked on ambitious plans for

data base system in their CAD/CAM Inte- integration at several of its factories, including

grated Information Network (CIIN). Similar- ity Erie Locomotive Plant, its Schenectady

ly, General Electric, as part of its effort to Steam Turbine Plant, and its Charlottesville

become a major vendor of factory automation Controls Manufacturing Division.

Technical Trends and Barriers: Future Applications

While the possibilities for application of existing programmable automation tools are extensive, the technologies continue to develop

rapidly. They depend on and share the extraordinary rate of growth in technical capabilities

of computer technologies as a whole.

There are five themes in the directions for

development in each of the technologies. They

increasing the power of the technologies—

i.e., their speed, accuracy, reliability, and

efficiency;

increasing their versatility—the range of

problems to which the technologies can

be applied;

increasing the ease of use, so that they require less operator time and training, can

perform more complex operations, and

can be adapted to new applications more

quickly;

increasing what is commonly called the

intelligence of the systems, so that they

can offer advice to the operator and respond to complex situations in the manufacturing environment; and

increasing the ease of integration of PA

devices so that they can be comprehensively coordinated and their data bases

intimately linked.

This section first summarizes the principal

research efforts and directions for development of the five technologies on which this

report primarily focuses: CAD, robotics, NC

machine tools, FMS, and CIM. Next, it summarizes issues in several technical areas which

have a large potential impact on all the technologies: artificial intelligence, standards and

interfaces, human factors, materials, and sensors. Chapters 8 and 9 describe the institutional context for research and development (e.g.,

sources of R&D funding), and compare R&D

programs on an international basis.

Trends and Barriers in Five Technologies

Computer-Aided Design

There are at least three generations of CAD

equipment, two of which are widely available

commercially, with the third still largely in

prototype applications and R&D labs. The

first are the 2-D computerized drafting systems mentioned earlier in the chapter, which

streamline the process of drawing and, especially, editing the drawings of parts, plans, or

blueprints. The second generation are 3-D

CAD systems, which allow the user to draw

an image of a part using either wireframe

models or “surfacing” (displaying the surfaces

of objects).

The third generation, commercially available

within the past few years but still in their infancy me the so-called solid modelers. Such

systems (actually an expanded 3-D capability) can be used not only to draw the object in

three dimensions but also to obtain a realistic

visualization of the part. Users can rotate,

move and view the part from any angle, and,

in some cases, derive performance characteristics. Engineers at IBM’s Poughkeepsie plant,

for example, use an advanced CAD system of

this type to design cabinet arrangements for

IBM mainframe computers. Because the system “constructs” a sophisticated solid model

of an object, it can be used to visualize such

design issues as component clearance problems. One can even “pull out a drawer” to

make sure it does not hit a cable, for instance.
Ch. 3—Programable Automation Technologies ● 7 5 ——.—— . —. — — ——

Photo credit Coputervision Corp

An exploded view of a part assembly from a CAD

system with solid modeling capabilities

There seems to be a consensus among manufacturing managers and researchers that such

third-generation 3-D CAD systems are a critical element in the progress toward effective

and powerful use of programmable automation

in factories. The increased sophistication of

3-D systems greatly improves the ability of

such systems to communicate design specifications to manufacturing equipment. While

third generation 3-D systems are technically

feasible now, there are nontechnical barriers

to implementation of 3-D systems, in part

because of the complexity of the systems and

the problems encountered in switching from

2-D to 3-D systems. 33 In fact, there is a need

for a fourth generation, a CAD system which

offers more “intelligent” design assistance and

can be easily linked to other programmable

automation systems for manufacturing and

management.

Indeed, there seem to be three related

themes in current CAD research:

1. improving the algorithms for representing objects using the computer so designers can create and manipulate complex

—- —

“R. Simon, Computervision Corp., personal communication.

Oct. 6, 1983.

2.

3.

objects in an efficient and intuitively clear

fashion;

adding “intelligence’ to CAD systems so

that they prevent design errors and facilitate the design process; and

developing effective interfaces between

CAD systems and manufacturing and

management.

Improving Algorithms. –Representing

shapes in computer memory and manipulating

those representations has been and remains

a difficult challenge for computer researchers.

As the power and complexity of CAD systems

increase, their computing needs grow rapidly. One of the problems in manipulating complex shapes with the computer is illustrated

by the experimental CAD system used for

computer cabinet design at IBM: One of its

creators reported that a typical manipulation

of a complex object—say, generating an image of the cabinet from a different viewing

angle, with all hidden lines removed—might

take several minutes of computer processing

time. * Although the system is still useful,

clearly quicker response is needed for the designer to have optimal flexibility from a CAD

system. A shorter response time can come

from a faster computer or from more efficient

ways of representing and manipulating shapes

in computer memory.

Although faster computers are unquestionably on the horizon, much of the current research on CAD involves attempts at more efficient representations. The efficiency of a certain scheme also depends on how easy it is to

use. A wide variety of schemes are being

studied, none of which has a clear overall superiority. One scheme, called “constructive

solid geometry, “ involves assembling images

by combining simple shapes, such as blocks,

cylinders, and spheres. The other is boundary

representation, in which an object is con-

*OTA Site visit, D. Grossman, IBM Corp. Yorktown Heights,

N. Y., June 8, 1983. “Hidden lines” in images are those edges

of a solid object that one cannot see from a given viewing angle.

Grossman reports that when CAD is used for such mechanical

models as the computer cabinets discussed here, each model

consists of a polyhedron with roughly 40,000 separate faces for

the computer to store, manipulate, and determine whether they

would be ‘‘hidden’ or not.
76 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

.— . ——. —.

structed as a set of individual surfaces. For

example, one system being developed by a

group at the University of Utah is based on

“splines.” The designer manipulates on the

screen the equivalent of the thin metal strips

used in models of boats or planes. He or she

can expand them, curve them, cut them, and

so forth to create the model. 34

There is some concern that not enough time

and effort in industry is being devoted to expanding the technologies, particularly the algorithms available for “solids modeling, ” i.e.,

for true three-dimensional representations of

objects. Thus the “experience base” of industries experimenting with 3-D systems is very

small, and such experience is necessary to refine the systems and determine the needs of

manufacturing industries.

Adding “Intelligence” to CAD.–In the industry there is much discussion of “smart”

CAD systems which would not permit certain

operator errors. For example, they would not

permit the design of an object that could not

be manufactured, a case without a handle, or

a faulty circuit board. Further, they would facilitate the designer’s work by such functions

as comparing a design to existing designs for

similar objects, and storing data on standard

dimensions and design sub-units, such as fastener sizes and standard shapes. Such systems

might also increase the ability of CAD systems to simulate the performance of products.

There is much concern over “bad design” in

industry, and intelligent CAD systems are

considered one way to improve the situation.

Though such systems have become rather

advanced in electronics applications and offer

some hope of becoming more so, there is as yet

little in the way of “smart” CAD systems for

mechanical applications. A few systems can

be programed to question a designer’s choice

of certain features that are nonstandard-a

22-mm screw hole in a shop that only uses 20-

and 30-mm holes, for instance. Some researchers feel that it will be possible to use an “expert” system (see the next section’s discussion

34R. Reisenfeld, professor of computer science, University of

Utah, personal communication.

Photo credit University of Utaf

A CAD image of a part from a syste m

based on “splines”

of artificial intelligence) for developing a

“smart” CAD system.

CAD as Part of Computer-Integrated Manufacturing. –Perhaps the most important research theme involves connecting computeraided design to other computerized systems

in the factory. Such connections would mean,

for example, that design information could be

forwarded directly to machine tools that make

the part, that designers could draw on previous designs as well as data on their performance and cost, and that designers would have

up-to-date information on the manufacturabili-
—— .— —

ty and cost of their designs. Such comprehensive connections between design and manufacturing are currently far beyond the state-ofthe-art.

There has, however, been modest progress

toward interfaces between CAD devices. The

Initial Graphics Exchange Standard, developed at the National Bureau of Standards

under U.S. Air Force sponsorship, allows different CAD systems to exchange data (see ch.

8). However, while interfaces between computer-aided design systems are becoming easier,

there is as yet little progress in allowing CAD

and CAM systems to communicate. In some

cases these devices can be wired together into

a computer network, but establishing an effective interface requires sophisticated software

to manipulate manufacturing information so

that it is useful for designers, and vice versa.

Movement toward design-manufacturing

connections is impeded by a strong tradition

of separatism among design engineers and

manufacturing engineers. A common description of the relationship is, “The design engineer throws the set of drawings over the wall

to manufacturing. ” There is evidence that

such barriers are beginning to break down,

slowly, as the need for communication has

become apparent, and as engineering schools

have begun to broaden the connections between design and manufacturing curricula.

There are many research efforts whose ultimate goal includes such connections between

CAD and other manufacturing systems. These

research programs include the Air Force’s Integrated Computer Aided Manufacturing project, as well as the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) National Engineering Laboratory

and a joint West German/Norwegian effort

(see ch. 9). The heart of the latter effort is an

attempt to use a very advanced geometric

modeling system developed by the Technical

University of Berlin as the basis for developing software which would allow design to be

connected to all aspects of the manufacturing

process. In addition, users of PA, such as GE

and IBM, are also working on interface issues.

However, full integration still seems at least

a decade off.

Ch, 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 7 7

— . . —

Robotics

Robotics research is currently an area of intense interest in both industry and universities. There are a dozen or more universities

with significant ongoing research projects in

robotics, and perhaps 3 dozen industrial firms

and independent laboratories. Government

labs at NBS, the National Aeronautics and

Space Administration (NASA), and several at

DOD, are also involved.

In part because of the technical immaturity of robotics technology, and in part because

it is a complex and interdisciplinary technology, there are many discrete areas of research

problems and possible directions for extension

of capabilities. The problem areas include:35

● Improved positioning accuracy for the robot arm. —Increased accuracy is essential for many applications of robots, particularly in assembly operations and other

cases where a robot is programed offline.

While current robots are precise (they can

return to the same position on each cycle

fairly reliably, within perhaps 0.005 inch),

their accuracy (the ability to arrive at a

predetermined point in space), is not nearly so reliable. Several techniques are being used to increase accuracy in robots.

Though the traditional answer has been

to increase the stiffness and mechanical

precision of the manipulator arm, such approaches can greatly increase the weight

and cost of the unit. Software calibration,

a technique being developed at the NBS,

involves adjusting the robot electronics

to compensate for inaccuracies in its

movements. Another technique involves

using machine vision systems to “watch’

the robot in action and correct its movements as they occur-this technique could

potentially improve both accuracy and

precision. Of the two, software calibration

is far simpler technically and is likely to

be available far sooner.

“(J. S. Albus, “ Industrial Robot Technology and Productivit~ Impro\’ement, ” Exploratory 14’orkshop on the Social impacts ofllobotics: Summary and Issues (Washington, D. C.: U.S.

Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, OTA-BP-CIT-I 1,

February 1982), pp. 62-89.
78 . computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace ——.— — — - —

 Increased “grace, dexterity, and speed. ”

—The physical structure of the manipulator—its material, actuation mechanism,

and joints—has remained substantially

the same for several decades. Several

groups of researchers, sponsored by

NASA and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), among

others, are working on lighter structures

for the robot arm. These would most likely consist of composite fiber materials

similar to those now used extensively on

aircraft-about one-sixth the weight of

steel. Though the technology for such

structures exists, composites are extreme

ly expensive and the cost is holding back

further use in robotics. Other directions

for progress in robot structures include

fundamentally different designs for the

manipulator arm. A Swedish group has

developed an arm which is structured in

some ways like a human spinal column,

while other research is directed toward

using “tendons” to effect movement of

the arm, as in the human musculoskeletal

interaction.

Cost is not the only drawback to the use

of lighter structural materials. In addition, the robot’s controller must become

more sophisticated in order to direct the

motions of a lightweight, and inherently

somewhat flexible, robot arm. For instance, computer scientists and mathematicians must develop control algorithms

that will prevent backlash–i.e., the “play’

or vibration that occurs when the arm is

moved quickly from one position to

another.

Finally, gripper design needs to be

made more flexible. Directions for progress in grippers include both developing

“hands” that can be used to manipulate

a wider variety of objects, and also developing “quick-change” grippers so that the

robot can autonomously exchange one

“hand” for another.

● Sensors, including vision, touch and force.

–Because sensors can be applied to a

wide range of programmable automation

devices, they will be addressed in a separate section later. One problem relevant

to robots is the development of control

systems that can accommodate sensory

information. Systems are only now beginning to become available that can accept

feedback from various kinds of sensors.

In part, these systems have developed in

conjunction with new generations of robot

programing languages, to be discussed

below. A continuing tension in development of robots is whether one should

structure the robot’s environment so that

it does not need extensive sensing, or try

to provide sensors to enable it to cope

with an unstructured environment.

● Model-based control systems. —The most

advanced and versatile controller for a

robot would be one that had an internal

model of its environment. In other words,

it would have a store of information about

the three-dimensional world, what the objects it worked with were supposed to

look or feel like, and the rules for how

physical objects interact with each other.

Although this problem has intrigued

many technologists, who view it as one

of the ultimate solutions for expanding

robot versatility and “intelligence, it is

extraordinarily difficult to impart such information to the machine, and even to

decide how one might structure such

information.

 Software. -Methods for programing robots are becoming easier and more efficient, although there is still substantial

work needed in this area. Two languages

have been released recently–IBM’s A

Manufacturing Language (AML) and

RAIL, by Automatix–which are considerably more powerful than traditional

robot languages, and which permit more

sophisticated programing techniques,

similar to advanced general-purpose computer languages such as PASCAL or

ADA. Most other programing languages

currently available are rather cumbersome and inflexible by computer-industry

standards. At the same time, teaching-byguiding programing is becoming less

practical for complex applications; it
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 7 9

.————.— —

delays production and has very limited

capabilities for editing the program or

using sensory information.

There is still much progress to be made

in human interfaces with robots—the design of languages and programing systems that can be most easily and effectively used by humans. One technique for

improving human interfaces, which has

just become available, is the use of CAD

to program robots and simulate their operation. The ability to visualize the robot’s path may permit more effective

planning and and debugging of programs

so that production need not be stopped

in order to test a robot program.

 Interface standards. — Standards need to

be developed for communication of information between robots and machine tools,

sensors, and control computers. While

such standards are a tractable problem,

programmable automation producers, as

well as the computing industry, are only

beginning to make progress in establishing standards, and the standards-making

process is long and intricate. In the meantime, efforts to establish interfaces between robots and other automated devices are hindered by a lack of standards.

Researchers at NBS report that some

manufacturers refuse to divulge details of

the operation of their equipment that

Photo credit Computervision Corp

A CAD-based simulation of a robot’s operation
80 ● computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

would enable the equipment to be linked

to other computers. (See the following discussion of standards and interfaces.)

● Mobility. –While techniques for limited

movement along rails are already available for robots, the more general problem

of developing a robot that could navigate

its way through a cluttered factory is far

more difficult. There is some argument

about whether such mobility is even necessary for the factory-some would assert

that such technology is too esoteric for

the factory, and the plant should instead

be organized so that mobility is unnecessary. There is substantial research in

mobility, however, in large part sponsored

by DOD agencies for specific battlefield

applications.

Numerically Controlled Machine Tools

Although machine tools are a well-established technology, there continues to be a need

for substantial improvements in the tools and

their controllers. A “Machine Tool Task

Force, ” operating under the auspices of DOD’s

Air Force Materials Laboratory, issued a report in 1980 calling for hundreds of improvements and new research efforts. Among the

ones most relevant to this study are those

listed in table 10.98

“Machine Tool Task Force, “Technology of Machine Tools:

A Survey of the State of the Art” (Livermore, Calif.: Lawrence

Livermore National Laboratory, October 1980)

The bulk of machine tool R&D takes place

in the laboratories of machine tool and controller manufacturers. A smaller but significant amount of work is undertaken at university mechanical engineering departments, with

funding from industry or the Federal Government. The chief research problems can be

divided into those involving the machine itself,

and those involving the controller.

The Machine Tool.–Many of the development needs for machine tools involve devices

which facilitate the use of the tools under computerized control. For example, chip removal

–disposal of the metal shavings that accumulate in large volume during machining-is a

big problem in industry, a problem that gets

bigger as machines get more efficient and

more automated. Various schemes have been

used for chip control and disposal, none of

which are entirely satisfactory. Many engineers believe the answer is not to create the

chips in the first place—by forging the part

close to its final shape, for example, or machining with lasers instead of cutting tools. While

“near net shape” forging is becoming more

prevalent, laser machining is still immature,

and not yet practical for widespread applications.

Another problem in machine tools, whether

automated or manual, is tool wear. A drill bit

or grinding wheel has a fixed useful life, after

which the quality of cut begins to decline and

the tool eventually fails. The traditional solution to tool wear is simply for an experienced

Table 10.—Machine Tool Task Force Recommendations for Improving Machine Tool Controls

Hardware (H) or

software (S)

Area of improvement development Objective

Toolsetting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H/s Reduce setup time, improve accuracy

Diagnostics and sensors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H/S Allow more of the important parameters to be sensed and

monitored for failure identification

Fixturing/clamping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H More versatility of fixture and less setup time

NC programing and instruction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . S Develop improved new computer subroutines to simplify

and reduce time for programing

Programmable controls . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H Integrate machine processes into computerized system;

enhance conventional machine operations; provide

interfacing devices and flexibility

Interface standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H/S Improve upgrading and growth-retrofit potential;

interchangeability

SOURCE Machine Tool Task Force, Technology of Machine Tools, October 1980
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 81

machinist to listen to the machine tool and,

ideally, sense when noise and vibrations become abnormal. In situations where that is not

possible, particularly on CNC machine tools,

machinists replace the tool after a specified

period of tool life. In addition, the Japanese

are said to run their machines at slower speeds

in order to minimize tool failure during unmanned machining. However, tools can fail at

almost any point in their use—a drill bit may

fail after it only drills a few holes, or it may

last for hours. This variability makes prescheduled replacement difficult and inefficient.

There has been some progress in developing

devices that can sense tool wear and report

when tool change is needed. The National

Bureau of Standards, for example, has a prototype device that “listens” to the vibrations

produced by the tool and can be “taught” to

recognize abnormal vibrations.

The rate at which a machine tool can cut

metal depends on many factors—the type of

metal, the depth of cut, the condition of the

tool, and so forth. Controlling the speed of cut

or the feed rate so as to cut metal at optimum

removal rates has been a continuing research

and development problem in the industry. As

with sensing tool wear, the traditional answer

has been for experienced machinists to adjust

a cutting speed or feed rate dial on the machine. In the past decade, various “adaptive

control’ devices have been developed which

vary the “speeds and feeds” of the machine

tool based on motor load, for instance. However, these devices have had uneven reputations for effectiveness and reliability.

Finally, a great deal of effort is now being

devoted to increasing precision in machine

tools. The Navy’s precision manufacturing

program will be described in chapter 8.

Related to improvements in precision, a

long-term goal for machine tool technology involves measurement of parts during machining. With such a scheme, quality problems

could be identified and corrected during manufacturing rather than afterwards, thereby

reducing waste. NBS has done some preliminary research on such a system of on line

metrology at machine tools, although commercial use of such systems is limited to very simple and predictable part geometries.

Machine Tool Controllers. -As with all

other forms of programmable automation,

there is continuing demand for and research

on simplifying programing of NC machine

tools; the same holds true for the need to

simplify and set standards for interfaces—between machine tool and controller, between

machine tools, and between machine tools and

other automation devices. A critical issue is

the development of effective interfaces between CNC machines and other computerized

devices, so that, for example, CNC machines

can derive their cutting instructions from the

stored dimensions of a design produced with

CAD. This is now possible only in specific

limited situations, where tremendous effort

has been devoted to developing the interfaces

for a particular application.

Flexible Manufacturing Systems

Flexible manufacturing systems for the machining of prismatic parts are becoming more

prevalent, and are a relatively established

technology. FMS for rotational parts are just

beginning to be available, while the range of

other possible applications for FMS—grinding, sheet metal working, or assembly—are not

beyond the reach of current technology, but

are only at early stages of development.

Many of the chief R&D problems for FMS

involve logistics: design and layout for the

FMS, and computer control strategies that

can handle sophisticated combinations of

powerful machine tools. In addition, there is

a need for more sophistication in simulation

systems for the FMS so that their efficiency

can be optimized.

There are a variety of enhancements to FMS

hardware which seem to be on the horizon. In

addition to all of the developments described

under the individual technologies, these include automatic delivery and changing of cutting tools, and systems for automatic fixturing

and refixturing of material to be processed.
82 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Improving the reliability and versatility of

materials handling systems is also an important need for FMS. As mentioned earlier, the

level of sophistication in materials handling

technology often does not match that of other

PA technologies, and the AMH system may

be the “weak link” in the FMS.

Computer-Integrated Manufacturing

Computer-integrated manufacturing receives

substantial attention in industry discussions

and trade journals, though there is relatively

little active R&D at this level of the computerized factory. This is at least partly because

there is not yet substantial demand for CIM

systems. GE and IBM have begun to work on

computer-integrated manufacturing, as have

some Japanese firms, particularly Hitachi, and

a coalition of laboratories in West Germany

and Norway. The Automated Manufacturing

Research Facility at NBS is perhaps the

largest test bed for CIM techniques. It is

described in more detail in chapter 8.

As with FMS, one of the key issues in CIM

development involves the logistics of a complicated factory. Several groups, including

NBS, the U.S. Air Force ICAM project, and

Computer-Aided Manufacturing International

(CAM-I), have been working on “architectures” for such an automated factory. Figure

10 is an example of such a conceptual framework for CIM which forms the foundation for

detailed work on factory control architectures.

One of NBS’s major contributions in automation R&D has been in developing strategies

for the interface of programmable automation

devices. Their emphasis has been on what they

call a “mailbox” or decentralized approach to

factory communication and control. In such

a system, the control of the factory is distributed at different levels among the various PA

devices (see fig. 10). For example, a factorylevel computer might send a message to a pro

duction-level computer—’ ’Make 150 of part

number 302570. ” The production-level computer would then send a message to the “mailbox” of a certain work cell-” Execute production plan for part 302570, 150 times. ” In turn,

the work cell controller would send messages

to the mailbox of the machine tools and robots

in the cell, to execute certain programs stored

in their memory.

The “mailbox” approach differs from a centralized, or “star,” approach to automated systems control in which a central computer directly controls each action of every machine

in the factory. The advantages of the mailbox

system are that it simplifies standards and interface problems—the only interface standard

necessary is for the location of the mailbox in

which to deposit messages. This allows one

robot to be substituted for another, for example, with relative ease. The mailbox approach

allows different PA devices to operate using

different languages and proprietary operating

systems, as long as they are able to interpret

messages from the computer controller.

Hierarchical arrangements for automated

manufacturing, such as those illustrated in figure 10, tend to involve a large number of separate computers, each with separate data

bases. Techniques for “distributed data base

management, ” that is, managing and manipulating data in several computer systems

simultaneously, need to be developed in order

for a hierarchical arrangement to be practical.

Similarly, techniques and standards for establishing communication between computerized

devices, both in-plant and between plants,

need to become much more sophisticated.

A group of researchers at Purdue University, in collaboration with several large manufacturers, is attempting to exploit currently

available technology to design an actual factory with maximum computer integration.

The leader of that effort argues that the technology for CIM is available, and that technical

advances, though welcome, are not necessary.

Rather, he argues that factors holding back

“fully” automated manufacturing are primarily:

1.

2.

3.

the lack of standards for interfaces, communication networks, and programing

languages;

a need for more powerful data-base management systems;

the need for detailed mathematical
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 8 3

—

Figure 1O.—NBS

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,,, ! .-.

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C* . . . . .

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. . . -

‘ . n..”

., .- . .. . .

. . .W..

w ’

“.. ,,.,

. . ~ :..’””

-. . . .

.,.,

-. .,

. ,.

.,

. .

Scheme for Distributed

Orders

Shop

control

1

ACell

control

Factory Control

w “ “Q___

SOURCE PJatl~nal Burpab of Standards

4.

5.

6.

models of physical and chemical processes;

shortages of technical personnel;

shortages of computer power; and

manufacturing management who are

unaware of the detailed technical benefits

of automation.37

Technical Trends and Barriers:

Cross-Cutting Issues

The following issues are not primarily connected to a particular automation technology,

17 T, \\’illiams, Purdue I.aboratory for Applied Industrial Cont ml. “ Information Systems Technology and Automation: Its

I’resent Da3’ Status and a Prognosis, ” paper developed for the

American %ciet~’ of Nlechanical Engineers Wrinter Annual

hleeting. Boston, Nov. 15, 1983.

/

-----

but rather have a large potential impact on the

current and future capabilities of automation

technologies as a whole.

Artificial Intelligence*

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a loose conglomeration of research areas united by the

common goal of designing machines which can

perform tasks we would generally regard as

requiring intelligence. It is significant for programmable automation because many experts

look to AI techniques as the key to automating parts of the manufacturing process here-

*A forthcoming OTA report, “Information Technology Research and Development, ” will discuss artificial intelligence in

more detail.
84 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— .— —— —

tofore thought to be too complex for automation.

The core of basic, long-term AI research includes work on imparting such intelligent

characteristics as learning, reasoning and

planning to computers. Building on some of

this work are several more applied research

areas: the most sophisticated end of the robotics field; the development of systems for image processing–deciphering images from video

cameras or touch sensors; development of techniques to allow the computer to understand

natural language (e.g., English, as opposed to

computer languages such as FORTRAN),

both written and spoken; and expert systems,

programs which can, through a sophisticated

network of rules, advise or make decisions in

specific situations much as a human expert

would.

While robotics and sensors (image understanding) have been largely covered elsewhere

in the chapter, natural language and expert

systems both have significant potential applications for manufacturing in this decade.

Commercial systems for processing both

written and spoken language have received

substantial attention in the past 5 years. The

hope for both kinds of systems is that, by

allowing people to give commands and communicate with computers in everyday language, widespread use of the computer will be

substantially easier. Fewer people would need

to learn specialized computer languages, and

fewer computer experts would be needed as intermediaries between computers and those

who wish to use the computer as a tool.

The primary application for computer processing of written language has been in the development of so-called natural language front

ends for data-base management systems

(DBMS). In such a system, the data base–

e.g., sales records for a company—and the

DBMS itself used to manipulate and summarize that data, remain essentially the same.

However, the natural language “front end”

allows users to type questions in relatively

free-form English, and translates those questions into the specialized language used by the

DBMS.

For example, without a natural language

front end, a plant manager who sought the

answer to the question, “Which products in

the 2000 series were sold in volumes of more

than 1,000 last year?” would probably refer

the question to a programer, who would write

a short program in a computer language to

process the request.* With a natural language

feature added to the DBMS, that plant manager could type his request, more or less exactly as he would say it, into a computer terminal, and the requested information would

appear on the screen.

In general, though, scientists have found

natural language understanding to be a much

greater challenge than originally expected.

Because there are so many ambiguities and

unclear references, understanding everyday

language requires substantial information

about the context of a given statement or

question, and the world in general. Organizing such information to allow natural language

understanding by computer has proven to be

an extremely difficult task, in part because of

our very incomplete understanding of how

people store and manipulate such information.

In practice, this means that constructing a

natural language front end for a DBMS requires weeks or months of work in writing

code that sets forth for the computer the various meanings of the terms used for a particular application, and the possible ways they can

be combined. Although many such systems

can interpret relatively freeform questions,

they are also severely constricted in subject

area. In other words, the same system which

can interpret questions about a firm’s sales

cannot decipher queries about the design of

its products.

*ln one DBMS language, such a (very simple) program fight

look like:

OPEN SALES 83:

FIND ALL

FIND PRODNO GT 1999 AND LT 3000

FIND SALESVOL GT 1000

LIST PRODNO, SALESVOL
Ch, 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 8 5

. — —

Systems for computer processing of spoken

language present a different set of problems.

These involve techniques for analyzing the

electronic signals produced by a human speaking into a microphone, and comparing them

to signal patterns stored in computer memory.

Voice recognition systems have been developed which are capable of interpreting perhaps

100 words, spoken distinctly and usually by

a speaker to which the system has been

“trained” to listen. Such systems can be used,

for example, to allow workers to give the computer simple commands when they do not

have a hand free to use a keyboard. Various

other uses have been proposed for such systems, from directing the motions of a robot to

operating a CAD system, although the limited

vocabulary and lack of flexibility of such SYStems has hindered widespread use. Rapid advances in hardware and software for voice

recognition may expand their capabilities in

the next few years.

Both for written and spoken language understanding systems, the limited breadth and

flexibility of applications is a consistent

theme. In fact, a general solution to the problems of natural language understanding-e. g.,

one that could impart to a computer the language understanding capabilities of a 5-yearold child—is probably at least two decades off.

Finally, expert systems can allow the use of

computers in situations normally thought to

be so complex that they require human judgment or ‘‘intuition. AI researchers have

found that in a narrowly defined problem area,

it is sometimes possible to simulate much of

the judgment of human experts by breaking

down that judgment into hundreds of rules for

the information to look for under different circumstances, and how to weigh that information.

Expert systems are typically composed of

hundreds of rules, gathered by painstaking interviewing of human experts, about exactly

how they make their judgments. The interview

and development process for an expert system

typically takes several years to complete,

although it is becoming less time-consuming

as techniques for developing the systems

become more refined. The interview techniques used by expert system developers allow

the systems to capture many of the subtleties

of how an expert arrives at judgments.

Two of the classic expert systems, for example, are “Dipmeter Advisor, ” developed by

Schlumberger to offer advice on oil geology,

and Stanford’s MYCIN, which advises doctors

on antibiotic drug treatment. Figure 11 is an

excerpt from the rules upon which the MYCIN

system is based. The system asks the doctor

a series of questions about the patient, and

then offers a diagnosis and treatment (see fig.

12). It can explain the rules it used to arrive

at its recommendation, and physicians can

also improve the system by adding new rules.

Some of the more recent applications of expert systems, closer to manufacturing, are a

system which guides mechanics in the repair

of locomotives (Delta/CATS-l, developed by

GE), and a system which helps configure

complex computer systems (XCON, formerly

“R-l, ” developed by Carnegie-Mellon University and Digital Equipment Corp.).

Though the commercialization of expert systems is only beginning, many industrialists

have high hopes for their use in manufacturing. A myriad of applications have been proposed, including systems which could mimic

the performance of a human machinist; systems for advising designers and preventing

design errors; systems which would act as a

linkage between manufacturing and design

Figure 1 l.– Sample Rule from the MYCIN

Expert System

Rule 27

If 1) the gram stain of the organism is gram

negative, and

2) the morphology of the organism is rod,

and

3) the aerobicity of the organism is

anaerobic,

Then: There is suggestive evidence (0.7) that

the identity of the organism is

Bacteriodes.

SOURCE R Davis and C Rich, Expert Systems Fundamentals

tutorial at 1983 conference of the American Association

for Artificial Intellgience
86 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

Figure 12.—Sample “Advice” From the MYCIN

Expert System

[Rec 1] My preferred therapy recommendation is as

follows:

In order to cover for items <13456>:

Give: GENTAMICIN

Dose: 128 mg (1.7mg/kg) q8h IV (or IM) for 10

days

Comments: Modify dose in renal failure

In order to cover for item <2>:

Give: CHLORAMPHENICOL

Dose: 563 mg (7.5 mg/kg) q6h for 14 days

Comments: Monitor patient’s white count

Do you wish to see the next choice therapy?

● * NO

SOURCE: R. Davis and C. Rich, Expert Systems: Fundamentals, tutorial

at 1983 conference of the American Association for Artificial

Intelligence.

data bases; and even systems for overall factory control.

Two researchers describe the characteristics

of a problem area which makes a good domain

for expert systems as one where:38

There are recognized experts; the experts

are provably better than amateurs; the task

takes an expert a few minutes to a few hours;

the task is primarily cognitive; the skill is

(routinely) taught to neophytes; the task domain has a high payoff; the task requires no

common sense.

It is unclear in this early stage of application of expert systems just how widely applicable these tools will be. While the successes

to date have been impressive, each of the current systems has been the result of many years

of effort in top AI laboratories. Furthermore,

they have succeeded in very carefully selected,

and very carefully restricted problem areas.

For example, GE’s system for diagnosing locomotive problems cannot be used to diagnose

automobiles, or even to diagnose different

brands or configurations of locomotives without major alteration.

With current high levels of interest in expert systems, and evolving tools and techniques to streamline their development, it

seems likely that these tools will be used in

SER. Davi9 ~d c. Rich, ‘‘Expert Systems: Fundamentals,

tutorial at American Association for Artificial Intelligence 1983

annual conference, Washington, D. C., Aug. 22, 1983.

several areas of manufacturing. However, it

is unlikely that expert systems will in the near

future meet the many expectations which their

recent successes have generated. It is easy

both to underestimate the development effort

and skills needed to construct such tools, as

well as to imagine new applications in areas

which are too broad or ill-defined for current

technology to handle.

Sensing this problem, one recent National

Research Council committee report warned of

“unrealistic expectations:”39

In an extremely narrow context, some

expert systems outperform humans (e.g.,

MACSYMA), but certainly no machine exhibits the common sense facility of humans at

this time. Machines cannot outperform humans in a general sense, and that may never

be possible. Further, the belief that such systems will bail out current or impending disasters in more conventional system developments that are presently under way is almost

always erroneous.

One of the dangers of high expectations for

expert systems and other areas of AI is that

if these expectations are unmet, there could

be a backlash and loss of interest in AI. The

field has already suffered from two or more

such cycles of high expectations and loss of

interest and credibility. Indeed, AI has long

been an area in which claims and hopes are

more prevalent than concrete successes,

though current workers in this area seem to

be rather more cautious.

Manufacturers are not alone in their high

hopes for AI, as evidenced by Japan’s recent

“Fifth Generation” computer project, and

DOD’s new Strategic Computing project.

Both of these programs are long-term, ambitious R&D in computer hardware and software

in which AI plays a primary role (also see ch.

8). Another major goal of both programs is the

development of “supercomputers.” Though

the definition of supercomputers changes as

“Committee on Army Robotics and Artificial Intelligence,

Manufacturing Studies Board, National Research Council, Applications of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence to Reduce Risk

and Improve Effectiveness: A Study for the United States

Army (Washington, D. C.: National Academy Press, 1983), p. 63.
Ch. 3—Prograrnmable Automation Technologies ● 8 7

the technology develops, a current working

definition is machines that can process more

than 100 million instructions per second. AI

and supercomputers tend to be discussed together and often confused with each other.

However, though both AI and supercomputers are at the frontiers of computer science,

they are essentially separate research areas at

this time. It is likely, though, that future AI

applications will require advanced computer

architectures-not high-speed number crunchers as much as machines designed to process

Symbols and logic.

.

Although the infusion of DOD funds into AI

may expand and advance the field, defense applications may also continue to monopolize the

small pool of U.S. AI researchers. Despite the

fact that DOD is making concerted efforts to

encourage commercial spinoffs from the Strategic Computing project, most of the attention of the AI R&D community will be focused

on military applications rather than commercial manufacturing applications.

Much of the current wave of commercialization of Al is based on AI research done as

much as a decade or more ago. In many cases,

commercial applications have recently become

feasible because of the continuing declines in

costs of computing power. While one can expect further improvements in available AlBased tools over the next few years, these improvements may be small in comparison to

this initial harvest. The more fundamental

problems of AI, involving natural language

systems of general applicability, versatile and

unstructured machine vision, and—ultimateIY-–generally intelligent, perhaps “learning”

machines, are still very much a long-term research issue.

Standards and Interfaces

The need for standards in both languages

and interfaces is strong and consistent throughout programmable automation technologies.

Without standards, it is very difficult to combine equipment of different vendors, and it is

more difficult to proceed incrementally toward

computer-integrated manufacturing.

The demand for standardization in languages is particularly strong from users of

automation devices, because of the increased

confusion and need for additional training that

result from the many different programing

languages. 40

More likely than one standard language for

manufacturing, however, may be a set of

standard languages for each application. For

example, there might be a standard language

for arc-welding robots, another for materials

handling systems. These could be either formally adopted or de facto standards (i.e., they

become commonly accepted through usage or

through the influence of major vendors or

users in the field). For example, many of

IBM products and techniques are treated as

standards because the company has dominated the computer field. However, domination by a single firm in programmable automation systems is not as likely (see ch. 7). In

addition, DOD has created many de facto

standards, APT among them, through its procurement practices. It remains to be seen to

what extent DOD’s latest attempt at a standard computer language, ADA, will be applicable to manufacturing systems.

1n addition to standards for programing languages, standards for interfaces between computerized devices will greatly facilitate integrated PA systems. The recent development

of standards for “local area networks, initially aimed to connect personal computers in offices, may also be useful in the factory. ” Such

standards define the hardware connections for

hooking devices together, as well as the “protocols” that ensure that different systems can

interpret each others’ messages. However, the

content of those messages depends on the architecture of the factory —i.e,, the different

levels of control and the kind of information

it is necessary to communicate. As discussed

earlier, efficient architectures for integrated

factories are only beginning to be worked out

in manufacturing laboratories such as the

Automated Manufacturing Research Facility

at NBS.

4

“OTA automation technology workshop, May 29, 1983.

“’’Local Area Network Facilitates Factory Automation, ”

Tooling and Production, May 1983, p. 94. These networks are

based on a professional association-developed standard known

as IEEE802.

25-4520-84- 7
88 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— — .- .

Manufacturers and others often argue that

premature standardization will stifle innovation. It can tend to “freeze” a technology at

a particular point in its development, and discourage further innovations which may be inconsistent with the standard. In addition,

there is sometimes a strategic concern that

standard languages cause more competition

by permitting easier combination of PA devices from different manufacturers. One NBS

official has argued that parts of the computerized controllers for machine tools, for example, are technically ripe for standardization but

the machine tool manufacturers do not seem

to support such a move.42

Apart from any resistance to standards,

there is the fact that implementation of standards is voluntary in the United States, which

is not the case in many other countries. As a

result, development of a successful standard

takes years of negotiation among manufacturers and users. To complicate matters, recent

court decisions43 have held organizers of standards efforts liable if a standard can be shown

to hurt a particular company. This has made

progress toward adoption of standards in

many areas even more cautious and slowgoing.

NBS staffers contribute to standards efforts

by serving on and helping to coordinate the

many private sector standards committees

working on automation issues. Relevant efforts are being conducted by the Electronic Industries Association, the Robotic Industries

Association, the American National Standards Institute, the American Society for Testing and Materials, the Institute of Electrical

and Electronic Engineers, and the International Standards Organization.

.-— —

“R. Hocken, NBS, personal communication, Aug. 12, 1983.

For example, some NC controllers only understand a number

to be “two” if it is written as “2”. Others require it to be written as “2.000” or “2. EOO”. This can cause difficulty in trying

to move programs from one machine to another, even if the

machines ostensibly use the same language.

4‘1 n American Societ-v of Mechm”cal Engineers v. Hwvdrole\’-

e) Corp. 102 S. Ct. 1935 ( 1982), the Supreme Court held that

a standard-setting organization was liable for the antitrust violations of participants in the standards-making process when they

acted with the apparent authority of the ASME.

Human Factors Research

In the past few years, makers of all computerized equipment have become aware of a

need to design systems for optimal usefulness

and productivity for their human operators.

There are various terms used to describe the

focus of such efforts: “user friendly” qualities

and “man-machine interface, for example. *

In part to help market their equipment, computer manufacturers have found that there are

steps they can take to improve the human factors aspects. Human factors experts argue

that research and testing of the effectiveness

of a product must be undertaken throughout

its design cycle. “Human engineering, which

was seen as the paint put on at the end of a

project, is becoming the steel frame on which

the structure is built. ”44

Although many experts agree on the importance of human factors, it has often been a

neglected topic in research. It is frequently

regarded as too basic for industry to examine,

and too applied for university research efforts.

Although DOD has pursued man-machine interaction research for decades, only recently

has human factors become a subject of systematic study outside of DOD. Psychologists

have developed testing procedures to help

determine the human effectiveness of different

designs. Recently, human factors of computer

systems has become a strong and growing

subfield of cognitive psychology.

Designers of programmable automation

equipment have lagged behind the trend

toward concern about human factors in computerized systems, in part because of the

newness and small size of the market for many

automation devices. In addition, some PA devices such as robots or portions of FMSS are

often designed with the intention of minimal

contact with humans.45 Several systems de-

● A Variety of termsby used by researchers industry to

describe human factors and related subjects. Some others not

mentioned in this section include software psychology, user

science, and human-computer interaction.

“B. Shneiderman, “Fighting for the User, ” ASIS Bulletin,

December 1982, p. 29.

“H. M. Parsons and G. P. Kearsley, “Human Factors and

Robotics: Current Status and Future Prospects, ” Human

Resources Research Organization, October 1981.
signers have noted, in fact, that the systems

with the worst human factors seem to be those

which were designed to be unmanned, but later

determined to need an operator or monitor.

Computer-aided design is somewhat different

from other PA technologies in this respect.

Because of the larger size of the market and

the recent attempts to develop lower cost systems for noncomputer users, CAD designers

have begun to pay attention to designing systems that operators can use more easily and

productively.

There are essentially two levels of human

factors research. The first, sometimes known

as “ergonomics, ” aims to make people more

physically comfortable and productive while

working at a machine. For example, it includes

research on the ideal levels of light, color of

display screen, size and configuration of keyboard, etc. A second level looks at more fundamental questions in “human-machine interface, ” such as how to distribute control between operator and machine, how to design

software for optimum productivity, and how

to maximize operator satisfaction. Most such

work has been directed toward general purpose computers or word processors rather

than programmable automation.4G

These research areas are related to larger

questions in industrial psychology and management concerning less tangible issues such

as the impact of technology on the work environment and/or on the design of jobs. There

has been little systematic work in the United

States in these areas, although there is substantial research in some European countries. ”

Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 8 9

Sensors

The vast majority of programmable automation devices are limited in their capabilities

because they are “unaware” of their environment. To use anthropomorphic terms, they do

not “know” what they are doing, exactly

where their parts are, or whether something

is wrong in the manufacturing process. * This

problem is especially acute when manufacturers hope to use PA devices to perform tasks

normally performed by people. A minor adjustment or observation which would be easy

and obvious for a human-e. g., righting a part

which arrived upside-down-is nearly impossible with most current robots.

Hence, computerized devices that can acquire information about the environment are

a lively area of inquiry. While many of these

devices are used in conjunction with robots,

they can also be used with other CAM equipment—e.g., NC machine tools or AMH systems–or independently. There are roughly

three categories of applications for sensor systems: 1) inspection, in which parts or products

are examined and evaluated according to preestablished criteria; 2) identification, in which

parts, products or other objects are classified

for purposes of sorting or further processing;

and 3) guidance and control, in which sensors

provide feedback to robots or other CAM devices on their position and the state of the part

or product.

One can simplify the range of sensor technologies by dividing the devices into three

classes according to their complexity. While

all of the devices are used for guidance and

4’)There has been substantial work, however, in the design of

s~’stems for teleoperators —remote manipulators controlled by

a human operator. Such work is often aimed for ultimate applications in unmanned space missions or underseas, handling

of radioactive material, or battlefield applications, See, for example, T. N. Sofyanos and T. B. Sheridan, An Assessment of

i~ndersea Telcoperators {Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Sea Grant College f+-ogram, ,June 1980).

“see, for example, H. H. Rosenbrock, Professor of Control

Engineering, University of Manchester (U. K.) Institute of

Science and Technology, “Robots and People, ” Measurement

and Control, March 1982, pp. 105-1 12; P. Brodner and T. Martin, “Introduction of New Technologies into Industrial Production in F. R. Germany and its Social Effects-Methods, Results,

Lessons Learned, and Future Plans, ” Proceedings of the Eighth

Triennal World Congress of the International Federation of

Automatic Control, Kyoto, Japan, Aug. 24-28, 1981, pp.

3433-3445; Swedish Work Environment Fund, Programme of

Activities and Budget, 1981/82–1983/84. For further detail see

ch. 5.

*There are some exceptions where PA devices do have significant information about their environment. One obvious exception is the Coordinate Measuring Machine, built specifically} to

measure the dimensions of objects, Another is in factories which

cod each part, for example, with optical codes similar to those

used on groceries. optical code readers at each machine can identify the part in process. Finally, many PA devices do have internal sensors. For example robots and machine tools have sensors which provide feedback on the positions of their joints,
90 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— — .— —

control applications, usually only the most

complex (i.e., vision and touch sensors) can

handle inspection and identification tasks.

The simplest devices provide binary information—e.g., a weight sensor, photocell, or

simple electrical switch can indicate whether

a part is or is not present. These simple sensors are relatively cheap, technologically mature and easy to implement. They are already

used widely in manufacturing equipment, and

their use will undoubtedly continue to grow

for applications in which binary information

is useful.

At a moderate level of complexity, the information sensed is analog (continuously varying). For example, a proximity sensor can determine the distance of an object. A popular

proximity sensor used as a safety device on

industrial robots is the same as the one used

on Polaroid SX-70 cameras. It calculates distance by emitting inaudible sound waves and

calculating how long they take to bounce off

the closest object and return. For safety purposes, these can be used to stop the motion

of the robot if a human enters its ‘‘work envelope. ” Other sensors in this moderate level of

complexity include devices which can electromechanically sense force and torque—e. g., in

a robot arm or a machine tool spindle. These

can be used, for example, to allow a robot gripper to apply just enough force to a delicate object. Finally, many devices for measurement

fall into the moderate-complexity category.

Optical sensors, for example, can be used to

monitor the diameter of a driveshaft on a

lathe, or for noncontact sensing of the dimensions of hot metal as it emerges from forging

processes.

Most of these moderately complex sensing

techniques are fairly well-developed, and can

be applied relatively easily albeit with some

customization. There is a moderate amount of

It&D under way to increase the quality of information from these devices (e.g., their sensitivity and speed), and to increase their range

of applicability (e.g., development of sensors

for measuring arbitrary prismatic shapes on

machine tools). In addition, the coordination

of these sensors with each other and with

CAM tools is a very difficult problem. Computer scientists are attempting to develop

processing techniques that can quickly interpret force and torque data from the various

joints of a robot, for example, and provide

feedback to the robot’s controller.

At the most sophisticated end of the sensing techniques, visual and touch sensors deal

with information that is not only analog but

also needs substantial processing to be useful.

Vision and touch sensing technologies are only

in their infancy, and have just begun to have

practical uses in the factory. Of the two, vision by far receives the most attention.

The chief technical problem in machine

vision systems is in interpreting the pictures

generated by a video camera. In a typical

vision system, a frame—i.e., one complete image frozen in time— is typically composed of

256 by 256 picture elements, or pixels. If each

pixel is either black or white, then there are

more than 65,000 bits of information that the

computer program must process. In general,

steps in the process include:48

Segmentation.—The areas of the image

must be clarified and divided into segments or “blobs, ” representing the features of the object and its background.

There are two general schemes for beginning the interpretation of’ the data. One

makes use of discontinuities-prirnarily

detecting the edges of the object in the

image. The other approach relies on similarities in the image, i.e., areas of the image that are of similar intensity.

Recognition.–The system must compare

the features (segments) it has identified

with those stored in its memory, attempt

to find an object in its memory that is

suitably close to the one in the image, and

hence label the object and its features.

Interpretation. –This step varies depending on the machine vision application. For

,,. N!, \\”right, “Vision of the Future, ” unpublished manus(’ript, Carnegie-lvlellon University Robotics 1 nstitute, Januar?’

1 9H:;.
Ch. 3—Programrnable Automation Technologies 91

robot guidance, the interpretation step

might be to identify the object, then calculate its coordinates so that the robot

can grasp it. For an inspection application, the interpretation of the image

might be to determine whether the object

has the right dimensions or is free of

defects.

In the vast majority of current vision systems, each picture element in the 256-by-256

element image is either black or white. In more

advanced systems just beginning to be used

in industry, each pixel can be one of several

shades of gray. These systems, often called

‘‘gray-scale, are potentially more powerful in

their ability to identify objects and cope with

uneven lighting, but they also require much

more computer power and algorithms for processing data which are only beginning to be

worked out. Systems for processing color images are another order of magnitude more

complex, and there is no active work on such

systems yet.

The systems described above essentially

provide 2-D information, although certain

tricks can be used to infer the 3-D characteristics of an object. Some researchers have used

more than one camera in order to obtain 3-D

information much as the human eye does,

though such schemes are in very early stages.

One very promising method to obtain 3-D information is the use of “light striping” systems. In such a system, a laser or other light

source flashes a very precise band of light onto

an object, and the camera records the image

at that instant. By examining how such structured light bends over a 3-D object, the system can infer the dimensions and distance of

the object.

Current machine vision is in a very early

stage. The range of objects that can be idenPhoto credit National Bureau of Standards

“Light striping” system can determine the shape of a 3-D part by flashing a very precise line of light (from slots on right,

below gripper) and photographing how that light is bent by the object. TV monitor shows view of camera above gripper
92 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

tified, the speed of the interpretation, and the

susceptibility of the systems to lighting problems and minor variations in texture of objects

are all examples of serious problems with current technology. Successful applications of

current machine vision technology tend to be

very specific, ad hoc solutions, often using

clever “tricks” or manipulations of the manufacturing environment. As one report notes,

“The vision systems of today, and those for

the rest of the decade will not promise great

generality. These sorts of tricks will be an important part of the field for many years to

come. ’49 Nevertheless, many useful applications are possible with existing technology and

machine vision is currently a rapidly growing

field. In certain specific applications, especially very tedious tasks such as inspection of electronic circuit boards, machine vision systems

can outperform humans.

An example of a successful machine vision

application is shown in figure 13. Here, a system developed by Octek Corp. counts stacks

of cups prior to packaging. The system first

“grabs” an image from its camera under controlled lighting conditions, defines the edges

of the cups, attempts to eliminate shadows

and other confusing data, and counts the

number of cup lips. Similar programs have

been developed to inspect cassette tapes and

circuit boards.50

While there is considerably less research effort under way on touch sensors, there are several groups of researchers, for example, working on a touch sensor based on a carbonimpregnated rubber pad which changes its

electrical conductivity under pressure. This

pad could be attached to a robot gripper, and

it would send to the computer processor an image or “footprint” of the object being grasped.

Once this image has been obtained, interpreting it involves virtually the identical process used for vision processing.

“Ibid.

5[’D. L. Hudson and J. D. Trombly, “Developing Industrial

Applications for Machine Vision, ” Computers in Mechm”cal

Engineering, vol. 1, April 1983, pp. 18-23. Note that this application of machine vision, like many inspection applications,

is not used in connection with a robot.

Figure 13.— Machine Vision Process

Two steps in a machine vision process developed to count stacks

of paper cups for a cup manufacturer. The cups are lit by a highly

directional fiber optics light source, which makes their edges stand

out. The top photo shows part of the system’s segmentation process,

in which it assesses the intensity of light for each cup lip. The bottom

photo indicates the interpretation function, in which the system has

counted the number of cups in the stack. Note the shadows and

relative unevenness of light which complicate even this simple

machine vision application.

SOURCE: Octek Corp.

There seem to be two schools of thought on

sensors for industrial robots. One argues that,

if enough care is taken in organizing the manufacturing environment, complex sensors are

unnecessary. Parts can be carefully fixtured

so they are in the proper orientation and position, and sensors in the simple or moderate

levels of complexity will suffice. The other

point of view is that robots should be able to

adapt to the chaos of manufacturing, and

should ideally have senses—vision, in particular-which rival those of a human.

Materials Trends

Plastics, ceramics, and composites are replacing metals in a wide variety of products
-4-- —

Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 9 3

— — . — . —

These trends and others mean that the

amount of metal-removing activity is going to

decrease. Thus, there is some chance that use

of plastics and ceramics will eventually render

obsolete some new metalcutting equipment.

This possibility has not yet been examined

systematically by the metalworking community. Robots, because of their flexibility, are less

likely to be affected than machine tools. However, there are certain factors that tend to

make widespread obsolescence of new metalworking equipment unlikely. First, metalworking machines have useful lives of 30 years or

more, and the users of this equipment move

notoriously slowly in replacing machine tools.

As new materials technologies do reduce the

amount of metalworking, it is the vast stock

of older, manual machine tools that is likely

to be useless rather than the newer equipment.

Second, it is expected to take at least two decades for ceramics to displace a significant

amount of metalworking.

Future of the Technologies

Capabilities

Building on the “Trends and Barriers” section of this chapter, tables 11 through 15 summarize the main problems for PA technologies

and the projected times for solution. Though

these projections must be considered extremely tentative, they provide a sense of the relative scale and complexity of the problems.

Because the amount of time between laboratory solution of a problem, first prototype applications, and the widespread and easy availability of that solution is significant, the tables

include a separate estimation of each. Projections for applications and availability are even

rougher than the projection for a technical solution, since they depend on many social, economic, and market conditions.

These projections were compiled by analysis

of existing sets of projections51 and by interviews with technology experts. Projections of

technological developments are inherently controversial, and experts do not always agree.

Some experts will view these estimates as

either too optimistic or too pessimistic. During the interviews with technology specialists,

for example, several pointed out that some of

the “key problems” listed in the table may

“See, for example, Manufacturing Studies Board, National

Research Council, Applications of Robotics and Artificial Intelligence to Reduce Risk and Improve Effectiveness: A Studyfor the United States Army (Washington, D. C.: National

Academy Press, 1983); R. E. Garrett and R. M. Mueller, “Strategic Analysis/Technology Trend Report, ” Control Data Corp.,

May 15, 1981; D. Grossman and J. T. Schwartz, “The Next

Generation of Robots, ” in Frontiers in Science and Technology

(Washington, D. C.: National Academy of Sciences, 1983, pp.

185-209.
94 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 11 .—CAD: Projections for Solution of Key Problems

Current (1984)

Hardware:

1. High-resolution, color display of designs,

with rapid generation of imagesa 

. . . . . . . . A

Both hardware and software:

2. Low-cost, powerful microcomputer-based

workstations forb

a) electronics design . . . . . . . . . . . A

b) mechanical design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3. Independent CAD workstations linked

by network, with access to supercomputer for powerful analysis and

simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A

Software:

4. Three-dimensional solid modeling

systems, resulting in:c

a) more realistic images . . . . . . . . . . . A

b) enhanced ability to connect with

manufacturing equipment . . . . . . A

5. Comprehensive, powerful computer-aided

engineering systemsd for mechanical

design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

6. Extensive design/manufacturing

integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . .—

1985-86

●

●

A

●

A

a- 1987-90

■

●

■

■

●

A

●

1991-2000 —2001 and beyond

awhl Ie color displays are currently aval [able, they tend to sacnflce etther resolut Ion (the fineness and clarlty of the picture) or the speed WI th which the lmaOeS can

appear on the screen New techniques for displays, such as the use of dedicated microprocessor chips (sometimes termed “slllcon engines”) to generate ~mages,

promise to Improve this situation. bMICrOCornputer.baSed Workstations for CAD are now being marketed, but In the judgment of techntcal experts consulted by OTA, they are etther not powerful enou9h

andlor not Inexpensive enough to be useful In a w!de variety of applications

CCAD expefls repo~ that many systems for 3-D SOI id model i ng are avai Iable now, but they are not being used because of their lar9e aPPetlte for com Puter Power, and

because their capacity to link design data to manufacturing equ!pment is inadequate Part (b) of this entv refers to this abillty to store and manipulate design data

about the physical characteristics of a parl i n such a way that it can be transmitted to manufacture ng equi Pment with only minimal i ntermed!ate steps

dThls entw refers t. modules powerful enough t. allow extensive interactive testing, simulation and refinement of designs In a wide range of appllCatlons Such SyStemS

are strongly product-dependent, whi Ie they may be near avai Iable for certatn products now (e g , integrated circ u its, certal n port!ons of al rcraft and motor veh Icles),

they are much less advanced In other industries and applications

‘This entry denotes the “window from design to production” wh!ch would, for Instance, allow designers to examine the production implications of design choices

These Include the costs and necessary production processes, as well as the history of manufacturing slmllar Items at the plant Such comprehensive connections

would allow much more substantial Integration of CAD, CAM, and computer. based management

A Solutlon in laboratories

● first commercial applications

9 solution widely and easily available (requlrtng minimal custom engineering for each appi!catlon)

SOURCE OTA andysls and compilation of data from technology experts

never be solved at all-the development of

standard languages for robots (table 12 item

10) for example, depends as much on market

factors and political considerations among robot vendors and users as it does on technical

issues. Similarly, development of artificial

intelligencebased systems which could control

much of a factory without human intervention

(table 15, item 5) depends on fundamental advances in the field of artificial intelligence that

are by no means assured.

On the other hand, it is possible that some

of the advances in the accompanying tables

may occur significantly faster than the tables

indicate. This might be particularly likely if

the Federal Government and/or industry were

to choose to make dramatic increases in R&D

funding for PA technologies. Chapter 8 discusses R&D funding in more detail.

However, industry observers report with

virtual unanimity that the application of programmable automation in most industries is

lagging significantly behind the technologies’

development, and that there appear to be

abundant, relatively easy opportunities for use

of current automation technologies. Hence the

main stumbling blocks in the near future for

implementation of PA technologies are not

technical, but rather are barriers of cost, organization of the factory, availability of ap-
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 9 5 —-——

Table 12.— Robotics: Projections for Solution of Key Problems

Current (1984)

Hardware:

1. Lightweight, composite structures and

new forms of drive mechanisms . . . . . A

Both hardware and software:

2. Force sensors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A s

3. Versatile touch sensors ... . . . . . . . . . .

4. Coordinated multiple arms . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5. Flexible, versatile grippers . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Software:

6. Precise path planning, simulation and

control with CAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A

7.3-D vision in structured environments

which have been planned to simplify the

vision task . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A

8.3-D vision in unstructured complex

environments which have not been

planned to simplify the vision task ... . . .

9. Robust mobility in unstructured

environments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

10. Standards clarifying different versions

of robot languages, and helping ensure

a common language for similar

applications. . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

 ò= Solution in laboratories

. = first commercial applications

1985-86

●

A

A

1987-90

■

■

●

●

A

●

■

A

A

1991-2000

 solution widely and easily available (requiring minimal custom engineering for each application)

SOURCE OTA analysis and compilation of data from technology experts

Table 13.—NC Machine Tools: Projections for Solution of Key Problems

Current (1984)

Hardware:

1. Systems which can automatically and

reliably remove a wide variety of metal

chips produced in cuttinga 

. . . . . . . . . . . .

Both hardware and software:

2. Reliable, widely applicable adaptive

control to optimize speed of metal

removal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A

3. Tool wear sensors applicable to wide

range of cutting tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A

4. Systems for measurement of parts of a

variety of shapes and sizes while the

parts are being machined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Soft ware:

5. Controllers to accommodate ties to robots A

6. Model-based machining in which the

machine tool operates substantially

automatically based on data about

metal processes and the part to be

produced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

7, Widely applicable 3-D verification of NC

programs using CAD-based simulations . .

1985-86

●

A

●

A

A

1987-90

A

●

●

●

1991-2000

2001 and beyond

■

■

 ✍✍ ✎ 

2001 and beyond

■

■

asy~tems currently exl~t for automatic removal of metal chips, but despite much Interest and research, they are neither very reliable nor QenerlCally applicable (1 e ,

they can only be used for certain kinds of metals or cutting processes)

A = solutlonIn laboratories

.= first commercial applications

~= solutfon widely and eas!ly available (requiring minimal custom engineering for each application)

SOURCE OTA analys!s and compilation of data from technology experts
● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

Table 14.—FMS: Projections for Solution of Key Problems

Current (1984)

Hardware:

1. Generic fixtures for holding a variety of

work-in-process parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Both hardware and software:

2. FMS for:a

a) cylindrical parts production . . . . . . . . A O

b) sheet metal parts production . . . . . . . A ,

c) 3-D mechanical assembly . . . . . . A

d) electronics assembly. . . . . . . . . . . . . A .

3. Materials handling systems which can

handle a variety of parts in any sequence

necessary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A O

Software:

4. Automatic diagnosis of breakdowns

in the FMS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5. Standardization of software

interfaces between computerized

devices in an FMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1985-86

A

1987-90

A

A

1991-2000

● 9

●

●

2001 and beyond

aAlmost all FMS currently running are used to machine t!c Darts, (e g , enaine blocks) which are those whose outer shaoe consists Drlmarilv of flat surfaces

The projectionsm this entry ref~r to FMS for quite different appiications~a) m~chining of’cylindrical parts, such as rotors and driveshaf~s (or “parts of rotation, ”

I n machlnl ng Jargon, since they are generally made on lathes), b) stamping and bending of sheet metal parts, such as car body panels, c) assembly (as opposed to

fabrication of indiwdual parts) of three-dimensional products, such as motors, and d) assembly of electronic devices, such as circuit boards. While machines currently

exist for automatic Insert Ion of electronic parts into c!rcu!t boards, an electronics FMS would integrate the insertion devices with soldering and testing equipment.

A – solution In laboratories

● = first commercial appllcattons,

■ solutlon wdely and eas!ly available (requiring mlnlmal custom engineering for each application)

SOURCE OTA analysis and compilation of data from technology experts

Table 15.—CIM: Projections for Solution of Key Problems

Current (1984)

Software:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Well-understood, widely applicable

techniques for scheduling and logistics

of complex materials handling systems

that would allow full factory integration . .

Standard communication systems

(networks) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A

Standardization of interfaces between

wide range of computerized devices

in an integrated factory. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Data base management systems which

could sort, maintain and update all data

in a factory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Computerized factories which could

run on a day-to-day basis with only a

few humans in management, design

functions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

A = solution in laboratories.

● = first commercial applications

1985-86

●

1987-90

A

A

1991-2000 2001 and beyond

■

A

I

■ = solution widely and’ easily available (requiring minimal custom engineering for each application).

SOURCE OTA analysis and compilation of data from technology experts
Ch. 3—Programmable Automation Technologies ● 9 7

—

propriate skills, and social effects of these

technologies. These issues are more fully addressed in later chapters of this report.

Many in industry would argue that CIM is

inevitably the future of manufacturing. Its advantages in cost, quality, flexibility, and control will, they assert, mandate its adoption.

Many parts of computer-integrated manufacturing can be put together on an ad hoc basis

now, and as the tables show, prototype solutions for many of the key problems already exist. However, several key aspects of the puzzle are as yet unsolved (the development of interface standards for computerized tools, in

particular), and for CIM to be practical each

of its elements must be mature, versatile, and

relatively easily available commercially.

As noted earlier in this chapter, CIM does

not necessarily imply manufacturing without

humans. In fact, one of the biggest challenges

on the road to CIM is learning to use humans

in effective ways, to develop machines with

which humans can work effectively, and to

identify the points in the production process

where maintaining human involvement may

enhance flexibility, responsiveness, diagnostic

power, and creativity. The extent to which

that effective use of people in manufacturing

will develop, and the extent to which CIM will

remove humans from manufacturing environments, are still open questions.

Automation technology researchers report

progress on virtually all of the technical problems, although the degree of progress often

depends on research funding, commercial demand for related products, and inclinations of

researchers. The technical barriers to increased

sophistication in programmable automation

are largely due to the complexity of the manufacturing environment, and to the fact that

many manufacturing processes—e.g., machining, scheduling, design-have not been clearly understood in a way that can easily be

computerized.

These projections of future technical capabilities, along with various other projections,

imply that the remainder of the 1980’s will be

a time when applications will to some extent

catch up with developed PA tools. Some technical improvements will doubtless be made

during this time. But most prognosticators

seem to see the 1990’s as a period when the

application of basic PA tools will become wide

spread, and a number of major technical improvements will be available, particularly for

robots and FMSs (see tables 12 and 14). While

this may, in some cases, suggest that the

1990’s seem far enough away to solve almost

any technical problem, it also seems to indicate that the next decade will bring quite

substantial increases in the power and potential uses of programmable automation.

Future Levels of Use of

Programmable Automation

The rate of growth in use of programmable

automation in the United States, known as the

“diffusion” of the technologies, depends on

factors both in the larger economy and at the

level of individual firms and products. Some

of the more general factors include availability of capital and skilled labor, international

competition, and the amount of attention

American firms devote to improvements in

manufacturing processes. The last factor may

be the most critical. Manufacturing engineering in the United States has been largely neglected both in engineering schools and in

industry .52

Prompted in part by international competition, however, the mood among American industrialists (to the extent there is a “mood”

in such a diverse group) seems to be changing. Increasingly, established management

practices are being questioned in conferences

and industry journals, and many industrial

managers are closely examining improvements in manufacturing processes, particularly robots.* The extent to which this change

“See, for example, E. N. Berg, “Manufacturing’s Academic

Renaissance, ” The New York Times, Oct. 30, 1983.

*DeSpite the generally rising interest in robotics, a significant group of people remain powerfully skeptical about the use

of robots as one of the primary steps to enhance productivity.

In a 1983 survey by the Institute of Industrial Engineers, for

example, members of the society-who are closely involved with

manufacturing processes on a day-today basis—rated robotics

relatively low in effectiveness of a group of productivity-
98 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

in mood will effect lasting and significant

change in manufacturing, however, is uncertain. Many management specialists believe

that such lasting change must include discarding powerfully entrenched habits in industry,

particularly financially-oriented management

strategies that discourage risk-taking and

downplay quality relative to cost.53

In addition to these more general questions,

a large number of factors come into play when

an individual firm chooses to use or not to use

programmable automation. Some of the technical factors include: the applicability of the

technology to the problem at hand, which

tends to vary according to the particular manufacturing processes used in each factory; the

range of tasks to which a given tool can be ap- —

enhancing methods. Only 29 percent had undertaken increased use of robotics in the past 5 years; 22 percent rated the step

high in effectiveness, 48 percent moderate, and 26 percent low.

Measures which received higher effectiveness ratings included capital investment for new or automated machinery generally, worker training, improvement of inventory control, and

“systems innovations. ” The interpretation of these survey

results could differ; some would argue that increased familiarity

of industrial engineers with robotics will lead to higher perceptions of effectiveness. In addition, robotics was not viewed as

unproductive by very many respondents; it simply appeared

not to be the productivity tool of first choice. (See “Productivity

Today: An Inside Report, ” The Institute of Industrial

Engineers, Norcross, Ga.)

53See, for example, R. H. Hayes and W. J. Abernathy, 4’Managing our way to econonic decline, ” Harvard Business Review,

tJuly-August, 1980, pp. 67-77.

plied; the cost of customization, particularly

for new technologies where few standards exist and almost every application is a prototype; the ease of use of the tool; the reliability of the equipment; the compatibility of programmable automation with machines already

in place; and finally, the capacity of different

PA systems for upgrading and expansion.

Organizational factors can also have a significant effect on firms’ automation decisions.

For example, one researcher found that

previous experience with automation was a

key factor in successful applications,54 and industry observers report that many unsuccessful attempts to use programmable automation

have been due to premature jumps into complex systems. There can also be substantial

resistance to change on the part of workers or

management. Many manufacturers report,

however, that production workers tend to

accept technological changes such as automation, while strong resistance tends to come

from middle managers who fear programmable automation will diminish their degree

of control or eliminate their jobs.55 Chapter 5

discusses organizational issues of PA implementation in more detail.

“J. Fleck, “The Adoption of Robots, ” PmcA”ngs of the 13th

International) Symposium on Industrial Robots and Robots 7,

Apr. 17-21, 1983.

MOTA Automation Technology Workshop, May 29, 1983.
Chapter 4

Effects of Programmable

Automation on Employment

Contents

Page

Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102

Effects of Programmable Automation on Jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105

Effects of Programmable Automation on Tasks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

Effects of Programmable Automation on Skills. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110

Effects of Programmable Automation Employment By User Industry . . . . . 112

Geographic Incidence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

Effects of Programmable Automation on Occupational Employment . . . . 119

Selected Detailed Occupational Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119

Shift in Skills and Occupational Mix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

Shift Toward White Collar/Salaried Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144

Transient Skill Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

Compensation Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153

Contextual Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162

Labor Supply. ......, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164

Japanese Mechanisms of Adjustment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169

Tables

Table No. Page

16. Basic Tasks: Activity Elements With NC Machines and Flexible

Manufacturing Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107

17. Occupational Profiles of Manufacturing Industries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
18. Unemployment Rates by State, 1976-82 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117

19. Number and Distribution of Engineers, 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120

20. Employment of Computer Systems Analysts, 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121

21. Percent Distribution of Engineering Employment

by Industry Group, 1970 and 1978.... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

22. Combined Employment of Engineering Technicians, NC Tool Programers,

and Computer Programmers, 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125

23. Craftworker Employment and Selected Occupations, 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129

24. operative and Laborer Employment and Selected Occupations, 1980 . . . . . . . 131

25. Trade-Sensitive Employment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133

26. Employment of Mechanics and Related Personnel, 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134

27. Employment of Flamecutters, Welders, and Production Painters

in the Metalworking Industries, 1980 ...., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135

28. Machinist Employment, 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137

29. Employment of Assemblers unselected Manufacturing Industries, 1980 . . . . 138

30. Employment of Inspectors, 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140

31. Clerical Employment, 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141

32. Employment of Managerial and Supervisory Personnel 1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143

33. 1980 Employment for All Manufacturing Industries,

Selected PA-Sensitive Occupations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145

34. Carnegie-Mellon University Study Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147

35. Estimates of Robot Manufacturer Staffing Profiles, 1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149

36. industry Staffing Pattern Contrasts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150

37. Earnings by Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156

38. Earnings of Production Workers, Selected Industry Groups,

1936 to Date, Annual Averages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

39. Average Hourly Earnings in the Machinery Manufacturing Industry,

in Selected Areas by Occupation, 1974-75, 1978, 1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159

40. Distribution of Total U.S. Labor Force Among Earnings Classes, 1960

and 1975, and Distribution of 1960-75 Job Increases in the services . . . . . . 161

41. U.S. Population by Age Groups, 1929-83 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165

42. U.S. Population and Labor Force, 1929-83 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166

43. Japanese Population and Forecast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

44. Minority Employment Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170

45. Relative Educational Attainment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171

46. Employed Persons and Employees by Occupation, Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172

47. Employed Persons by Industry and Status unemployment, Japan . . . . . . . . . 175

Figures

Figure No. Page

14. Conceptual Model: Occupational Demand Change.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106

15. Regional Manufacturing Employment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

16. Sectoral Earnings Patterns. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155

17. Technology Change and Real Wages. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Chapter 4

Effects of Programmable

Automation on Employment —— — — — — — — —

Summary

Employment change due to programmable

automation (PA) will not be precipitous. Programmable automation will depress the number of jobs available in manufacturing, but it

will not necessarily cause significant national

unemployment during this decade or even the

next. By eliminating specific tasks and by contributing to major changes in manufacturing

processes and organizations, PA will “displace” jobs (where jobs are defined as sets of

tasks performed by individuals working a

standard number of hours). Whether unemployment occurs depends not only on these

displacement effects, but also on the level of

production volume (which depends on foreign

trade and consumer demand), and on the numbers and types of people seeking work.

Slower growth in the labor force, increases

in capital goods production, and limited or imperfect use of PA technology are among the

factors likely to buoy manufacturing employment during this century. However, regional

and local employment may suffer due to the

combined effects of labor-saving technology,

import competition, and other factors, especially where area economies depend on socalled declining or mature industries. Yet PA

may help firms in those industries employ

more people than they might otherwise—at

least to the extent that it makes them more

competitive. Cumulative experience and improvements in technical capabilities and costs

should increase the use of PA (and its employment effects) during the 1990’s relative to the

1980’s.

Programm able automation will reinforce the

ongoing trend toward increased “white collar”

or salaried employment and increased service

industry employment, although skill requirements for jobs at all but the highest levels in

manufacturing may fall. Producers of PA are

particularly likely to employ predominantly

salaried personnel, especially if they continue

to import significant amounts of PA hardware

from overseas. Consequently, there will be few

opportunities for people to move directly from

production jobs where PA is used to jobs producing PA. Also, the limited amount of actual

production work expected among PA industries is one reason OTA expects that job creation among producers of PA equipment and

systems will be less than job loss among users.

Programm able automation will blur distinctions between occupational categories and present vast opportunities for restructuring jobs.

Among occupational groups, technicians will

become more prominent with the spread of

PA, in part because they will perform tasks

otherwise performed by engineers or skilled

tradesmen. Engineers will nevertheless constitute a growing share of manufacturing employment, as may mechanics, repairers, and

installers. Operatives, laborers, and production-clerical personnel are the most vulnerable

to displacement.

PA will provide new opportunities for structuring jobs because of its tendency to displace

and to create individual tasks. It therefore

raises questions about the tradeoff between

large numbers of narrowly defined jobs–customary in manufacturing to date-and smaller

numbers of more broadly defined jobs. How

and whether the potential for positive change

in job design and the organization of work is

realized depends on decisions by individual

managers. Many factors—e.g., the operating

speed of automated equipment, the breadth of

functions it can perform, and the reduction in

101
102 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

——— —.— . .

average skill requirements some users may ex- the computer knows best, overlooking the valperience–may cause a problem of overconfi- ue of experience-based understanding of mandence in programmable automation. There is ufacturing processes.

a risk that users may too readily assume that

Introduction

The elimination of jobs will be a principal

long-term effect of programmable automation:

PA technologies are designed to reduce labor

hours in production. They are sold as labor

substitutes, whether or not the total number

of employees will actually fall with their use.

Even the advertising language emphasizes the

capacity of machines to emulate or improve

on human performance (e.g., “the graphics

lathe control that thinks like a machinist”). In

addition to its impacts on the number of jobs,

programmable automation will also bring

about major changes in job content and job

mix in the manufacturing workplace. All of

these effects will occur not because of technological change alone, but because of concomitant changes in how companies are organized

and managed and in what and how much they

produce.

This report does not examine employment

change exhaustively. * Doing so would require

a thoroughgoing examination of changes in

the structure of the economy and individual

industries. The report does, however, show

how one set of technologies (which can be used

across an unusually broad range of industries)

may alter demand for labor. It shows that programmable automation creates enormous potential for change in the use of labor. Not only will

it reduce the amount of labor used to produce

a given amount of product, it will also motivate shifts in the mix of personnel and in the

services sought from employees. PA will directly or indirectly affect all types of personnel, professional and technical as well as production and clerical.

. . ——

*FOr addition~ treatment of employment change, S* uPcoming OTA assessments on technology and structural unemployment; technology, innovation, and regional economic development; and economic transition.

Despite this broad potential for change, no

one set of impacts is inexorable. PA and other

factors (e.g., changes in consumer demand and

in the business relationships between firms)

will present employers with choices about the

number and types of personnel they use. The

outcomes of those choices will determine future staffing patterns and employment levels

in firms and industries.

Prior to examining the employment effects

of programmable automation, it is useful to

review some basic labor market characteristics

and analytical concepts. In the aggregate,

changes in industry or national employment

levels depend principally on economic conditions, including both short-term cyclical conditions and more profound structural changes

in the economy. These conditions reflect

changing buying patterns of consumers as

well as the investment decisions of companies

and Federal budget policy (which affects the

financial resources of individuals and businesses). The numbers and types of jobs depend

heavily on the numbers and types of goods and

services consumers demand and on the countries from which they buy them. For this reason, import (and export) levels—which reflect

preferences for foreign products relative to domestic ones—are an important determinant of

employment.

Technology used in production is a secondary influence that is dwarfed by the effects of

demand changes; it governs the mix of labor

and other inputs. Technology change generally

affects employment much more slowly than

do demand shifts, because it does not affect

an industry or an economy all at once. Automation, in particular, is typically adopted during periods of economic expansion, a timing
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 103 — -- . — — — — — —

that facilitates the adjustment of work forces

through attrition.*

While it is hard to attribute past employment growth to a single technology change,

the introduction of new products and production processes has historically been associated

with employment growth. This has occurred

despite the fact that productivity improvement (due to technology or other factors) by

itself—i.e., unaccompanied by change in production volume or in the average number of

working hours per job—will result in fewer

jobs.**

The fact that interest in automation has

grown during two closely spaced recessions

tends to confuse the perceived relationships

between automation and employment. Many

employers laid off personnel because of the

recessions, as is usual; what is unusual is that

— —

*TheSe points are frequently raised by the Bureau of Labor

Statistics. Also, West German research shows that on an overall

industry level, the timing of adoption of automation, relative

to when it is first introduced, affects the rate and level of

employment change. A West German study found that the actual and hypothetical employment reductions associated with

numerically controlled (NC) machine tools fell between 1973 and

1979; actual layoffs were negligible. The authors concluded that

the potential for displacement depended on where the technology was used: compared to the early ones, later NC investments

were aimed at replacing old equipment rather than expanding

capacity, and such installations were more common among relatively small users, where the opportunity for productivity improvement (and displacement) was lower.

As that study illustrates, estimates of potential displacement

should allow for change in baseline conditions over time. Another German study estimated that, when used as an alternative

to stand-alone NC, newer flexible manufacturing system (FMS)

technology could displace 1,000 to 3,000 people by 1990, or less

than 1 percent of metalworking employment. The authors concluded that organizational inertia and difficulties involved in

using the relatively new technology would retard actual displacement. The conclusions drawn in these studies are consistent with the expectations of analysts who are familiar with

American use of NC and FMS. See Werner Dostal, et al, “Flexible Manufacturing Systems and Job Structures” (Mitteilungen

aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung), 1982; and Werner

Dostal and Klaus Kostner, “Changes in Employment With the

Use of Numerically Controlled Machine Tools” (Mitteilungen

aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung), 1982.

**ofiICD, for example, has estimated that if productivity were

to rise 10 percent between 1980 and 1990 and world trade failed

to grow over the decade, aggregate employment would be O to

4 percent lower than in 1980. However, OECD believes that

the higher estimate is unrealistic, because such producti~’ity

growth would be unusually high, permanent increases in productivit~ growth rates are unlikely, and static trade is especiall~’

unlikel~’. ,!fi(”roelectr~~nic.~, Robotics and Jobs, OE; CD, Paris,

1982, p. 90.

some may not rehire to pre-recession levels be

cause of recent or planned automation, and/or

because of permanent declines in their business. Thus, the percentage of unemployment

due to permanent separations (as opposed to

layoffs and other factors) grew during the last

recession. These developments will likely slow

the return of the unemployment rate to pre-recession levels.l On the other hand, because of

the recessions and recent high interest rates

many firms avoided investing in new equipment. The recovery may outpace their ability

to automate, or it may fail to generate sufficient profits for them to automate.

The auto industry exemplifies all of these

possibilities to some degree. Yet it was widely recognized before the recent explosion of interest in robots that U.S. automobile manufacturers were unlikely to hire to prior peak levels

anyway, at least during the 1980’s, because

of changes in the auto market, such as growth

in imports.2 In some industries, such as autos,

PA may help to preserve jobs by helping

domestic firms repel import competition, although total industry employment may fall.*

Changes in employment levels will depend

not only on how technology and economic conditions affect industries immediately involved

in producing and using the technology; they

will also depend on how related industries (e.g.,

suppliers and customers) are affected. Evaluation of both direct and indirect employment

effects generally requires a macroeconomic

model that captures interindustry links and

their sensitivity to changes in prices and tech-

— — —

‘Robert W. Bednarzik, “Layoffs and Permanent Jobs Losses:

Workers’ Traits and Cyclical Patterns, Monthly I.abor Rew”ew,

September 1983.

‘See Increased Automobile Fuel Efficiemy’ and Synthetic

Fuels: Alternatives for Reducing Oil Imports (Washington,

D. C.: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, OTAE-185, September 1982).

*For reference, note that Arthur D. I,ittle concluded from a

study of West European auto manufacturing that, despite an

anticipated $40 billion investment in programmable automation during the 1980’s, the West European share of the worId

auto market will continue to fall, and its employment capacity

may fall by as much as 30 percent from current levels. See

Martyn Chase, “European Car Makers Seen Installing $40 Billion in Automation Equipment, ” American Metal Market

Metalworking News, Feb. 28, 1983.
104 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

nologies. At this time, available data are not

adequate to fully model the likely impacts of

PA.

A major advance in this direction comes

from a study recently conducted at New York

University. It concluded from an input-output

analysis that, given the likely impacts of several computer-based technologies on labor

requirements in manufacturing, education,

health, and the office workplace, and given the

employment generated by increased production of computerized equipment, significant

unemployment during this century is not likely to result from progressive computerization

(provided that the work force can satisfy shifting occupational and sectoral requirements).

That study illustrates how employment in

manufacturing can be stimulated through this

century by the production requirements of po

tential rates of installation of computers and

automation into the manufacturing and office

environments. The study underscores the important role that domestic production of capital goods—demand by businesses for the

products of other businesses—plays in maintaining domestic employment levels. It also

shows that slower growth in the labor force

can blunt the employment effects of labor-saving technologies. As the authors note, additional work is needed to assess the effects of

other factors on employment, such as possible changes in production materials, in level

and manner of equipment integration, and in

trade patterns.3

OTA shares the view that use of programmable automation can grow, as is expected, without large increases in national unemployment

during this century. The effects on employment

of labor-saving technologies can be offset in

the aggregate by changes in the labor force,

as well as by likely increases in output for capital goods and other products. Such output

growth, of course, assumes a strong economy.

However, the transition in industry structure

and occupational profiles accompanying PA

‘Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin, The Impacts of AIJtomation on Employment, 1963-2000, final report, New York

University, Institute for Economic Analysis, April 1984.

and recent growth in imports may burden individuals and communities at least temporarily, especially if PA use grows more quickly

and extensively than appears likely during

this decade. Changes in industry demand for

specific skills will make it harder for some individuals to find or change jobs, as will regional dependence on specific industries. Thus, PA

may aggravate ongoing local unemployment.

While the Nation as a whole will benefit from

the productivity gains expected from PA, it

will not benefit fully if otherwise productive

labor resources are idled for long periods of

time.

Analysis of the employment impacts of programmable automation is fraught with difficulty. Briefly, analysts generally approach the

problem from two perspectives: the engineering approach, which focuses on the potential

for equipment to substitute for people on a

task-by-task basis; and the economic approach, which derives employment estimates

from models of the interaction among industries based on their requirements for labor and

other production inputs. Both approaches

have shortcomings.4 Moreover, the number of

different PA technologies, the range of equipment designs and implementation strategies,

and uncertainties about the speed and success

of technical advances make the formulation of

general rules about job loss (or creation) risky.

So, too, does existing variation among employers (even in the same industry) in job mix, job

definition, and adaptability to change. Finally, data describing prevailing skill requirements, jobs, and job mixes among firms are

limited. As the technical memorandum published during the course of this assessment explained, predictions of employment impacts

should be regarded with caution. Available

data only permit insights into the likely directions for employment change.

This chapter examines how PA is likely to

affect employment opportunities, drawing on

inferences from case studies, site visits, interviews, and technical literature. It focuses on

change at the level of the firm and the indus41bid.
.——.— . . .-.

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment • 105 — — —.

try. The first section describes how, and why,

programmable automation will shape job opportunities. It traces potential effects on tasks

and skills. The second section describes where

employment impacts are likely to be experienced, by industry and by geographic region.

The third section explores the implications of

progr ammable automation for specific occupational groups. Together, the first three sections identify the groups of people most likely to experience employment change and the

types of change they may confront.

The final sections address the implications

of those changes for the labor market overall.

The fourth section discusses the overall effect

of likely impacts on tasks, skills, and occupations. It draws on other studies of individual

automation technologies and industries to provide perspective. The fifth section discusses

contextual factors that will shape observed

employment patterns. It identifies trends in

the supply of labor, and it describes recent

Japanese experiences in adjusting to automation.

Effects of Programmable Automation on Jobs

As figure 14 illustrates, change in employment induced by new technology depends on

how technology alters the tasks to be done in

manufacturing jobs, on what changes occur in

the skills required for different tasks and jobs,

and on how the roles of different occupations

change; total employment change also depends on changes in how labor is used within

and between industries and changes in labor

supply. The effects of PA on work opportunities are so varied and (at times) so profound

that they call into question the basic definition of “skill,” the identification of where skill

fits into the production process, and the relationships between tasks, skills, occupations,

and jobs. Changes in task assignments and

skill requirements vitiate traditional occupational descriptions, which form the basis of occupational employment forecasting. *

Employers create jobs by combining sets of

tasks and allocating them to individuals. Jobs

with similar descriptions and avenues of preparation are classified as occupations. Indeed,

the design of training programs depends on

the expectation that people in designated occupations or jobs will perform specific tasks.

Unfortunately for the analyst, what is actually

*The changes may occur only informally, at least at first, and

may not be reflected in job titles.

done on the job frequently differs from the formal job description. Differences in actual function between various jobs and occupations are

often nominal, while companies differ in what

they ask of people in the same occupations,

even within a given industry.

Computer-based technologies, including numerical control (NC) technology, have already

led to different staffing patterns within and

among countries, varying on the basis of industrial traditions, labor market conditions,

prevailing types of company structure, and national educational systems. These variations

further complicate employment forecasting, as

employment change depends on a series of decisions yet to be made by current and potential employees, employers, and educators.

A German analysis of flexible manufacturing systems (FMS), for example, concluded

that work within an FMS was comprised of

a set of tasks that could be allocated in numerous ways generally not bound by the technology (see table 16). The authors illustrated this

point by contrasting two cases, one with three

types of jobs directly associated with the

FMS, the other with five. They concluded that,

while the technology permits unusual freedom

in defining jobs, and is particularly conducive

to multifaceted jobs, radical change in job de-
106 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

.

Figure 14.—Conceptual Model: Occupational Demand Change

Labor force model

f P

Census Age/sex/race

population Labor participation force projections rates

6

,

Aggregate model

supply Component Demand

factors GNP factors

44

4

T 4

Policy d L Other

assumptions assumptions

4 #

Industry activity model

GNP

disaggregation 9

t

t

1

I

* Y

Industry !

Producing , Intermediate

bridge industry GNP , flows

t

$

t

t

Industry - ’

output < &

1

Labor demand model

t

Industry Industry Industry

productivity hours employment

* +

Occupational demand model

! 1

aEmpl~~ment levels will depend on industry and labor sUPPty factors, as well

as levels of economic activity, as noted in larger model above

SOURCE” Of ftce of Technology Assessment, with input from Robert Bednarzik

of the U S Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statmtlcs

Additions Deletions

Skilled Unskilled Skilled Unskilled

I

Management choices

re: job definition I

L

I

J

I

Occupational demanda

(staffing pattern) I

scriptions is a distant prospect due to the slowness of organizational change.5 OTA shares

this perception.

Effects of Programmable Automation

on Tasks

Although each application of programmable

automation in the workplace is unique, OTA’s

analysis reveals some common trends in how

automation affects the use of labor. At the

simplest level, automation displaces and/or

creates tasks: Where tasks are transferred

from people to machines, fewer jobs are associated with the production of a given amount

of product. This transfer process constitutes

displacement-the elimination of tasks (and

ultimately of jobs) that would have been available but for automation. On the other hand,

the introduction of new equipment and systems into the workplace also creates tasks,

particularly in the design of products and the

maintenance of the equipment. The situation

becomes more complex where production processes change more significantly. In this case,

even tasks and personnel associated remotely, or not at all, with the primary tasks performed by the equipment will be affected.

‘Werner Dostal, et al., “Flexible Manufacturing Systems and

Job Structures” (Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und

Berufsforschung), 1982.
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment . 107

Table 16.—Basic Tasks: Activity Elements With NC

Machines and Flexible Manufacturing Systems

Programing and planning:

1. preparation of a program

2. modification of a program

3. preparation of tool blueprint

4. preparation of mounting blueprint

5. processing problems: interviews for additional

information

6. the activities of a programer or operator in case of

breakdowns

Preparation and equipment:

1.

2,

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

making the tools available and transportation of

tools and mounting means

presetting of tools and mounting means

control of tool installation; bringing of tools into

play

preparation and setting up of mounting means and

devices

lifting and putting down of a workpiece

mounting of workplaces according to the mounting

blueprint and one’s experience

control of mounted workplaces

switching on and adjustment of refrigerant afflux

Preparing and equipping:

1. input output media insertion, spooling removal

2. zero adjustment

3, placing the correction switch according to tool and

mounting blueprint

4. placing correction switch towards tool lock

5. test run with coordinate and cutting direction

control

Operation and supervision of machines:

1. starting of a program run

2. observing of the operating cycle

3. removal of shavings

4. changing of tools and mounting

5. supervision of the operating status of the

installation

6. discovery of false control movements

7. activating of the switch in case of breakdowns

8. removal of breakdowns

Controlling and monitoring:

1, measure and surface control during processing

2. control of the complete workplaces

3. installation care

4. putting into operation and keeping in operation

5. training of an operator

SOURCE W Dostal, et al , “Flextble Manufacturing Systems md Job Structures”

(Mlttellungen aus der Arbeltsmarkt. und Berufsforschung), 1982

Task Displacement

Automated equipment and systems perform

specific, primary tasks previously or otherwise

done by people, such as welding, materials

handling, and revision of product designs. The

fewer the tasks in the original job definition,

the more likely that automation of a given task

will lead to job displacement. For example, if

a person does only spot welding, the introduction of a spot-welding robot is more likely to

result in the elimination of part or all of that

Photo credit Cincinati Milacron, Inc

Machine cell with two computerized numerically

controlled turning centers and robot for machine

loading/unloading and inspection

job than if the person did spot welding and

other tasks, such as welding-gun repair.

Programmable equipment and systems can

substitute for labor more readily than can conventional equipment, in part because of their versatility; a single system can perform multiple

tasks. In particular, they perform secondary

tasks in the factory, such as collecting and

transferring information on equipment use or

movement of parts, and even automating the

flow of materials. Consequently, programmable automation may assume tasks traditionally done by nonproduction labor, from

managers to stock-chasers, as well as those

done by production workers. Also, substitution for labor may occur when PA is used to

replace other types of equipment. For example, robots have been adopted by automobile

manufacturers as an alternative to automatic

welding machines (run by people) to do spot

welding in automotive assembly.

The possibilities for displacing labor are

generally greater for computer-integrated

manufacturing (CIM) systems than for standalone applications of automation, although

such systems do not eliminate all need for

human input. For example, a single arc-weld-
108 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

ing robot may require an operator (although

that robot/person combination may make the

hiring of additional welders unnecessary if it

is more productive than a single human welder). On the other hand, a single materialshandling robot serving other pieces of equipment may displace a human materials-handler

without requiring an operator, although at

least one person may oversee the larger assemblage of equipment. Similarly, flexible manufacturing systems have the potential to displace more people for a given set of machining tasks than do stand-alone NC machine

tools. However, because the art of designing

and implementing successful integrated manufacturing systems remains immature, and

because FMS implementation is (and is expected to remain) limited, significant labor

displacement by either CIM or FMS is unlikely in the near term.*

Programmable automation does not always

substitute for labor in an obvious or direct

way. For example, early research into bin-picking robot applications showed that it was more

efficient to do away with human-like sequences

of steps than to imitate them.6 In some cases,

automation accompanies or motivates major

changes in production processes which them-

—— ‘xJ~~~ Bright drew the Same conclusion about the displacement potential of systems by evaluating conventional automation and the use of computers in the late 1950’s and early 1960’s.

In a paper prepared for the U.S. National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress in 1966, Bright

noted that the degree of mechanization varied among applications along three dimensions: 1) “span,” or use across a sequence

of operations; 2) “level,” the degree of automatic process control; and 3) “penetration,” the extent to which such secondary

and tertiary tasks as setup and repair are automated. Bright

concluded that ‘‘successive advances in automatic capability

generally reduce operator duties and hence contributions” (p.

11-210). He observed that sophisticated systems can and will

automate conceptual as well as physical work. In contrast,

simpler systems tend more to function as tools, complementing the human user. See James R. Bright, “The Relationship

of Increasing Automation and Skill Requirements, ” The Employment Impact of Technological Change, app. vol. II to the

report of the U.S. National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, February 1966).

‘Steven Ashley, “GE to Install Forging Bin Picker Robot, ”

American Metal Market/Metalworking News, June 6, 1983.

selves alter the use of labor. As a sequence of

production operations, a process determines

the types and amount of tasks humans or

machines can perform. For example, computer-aided design (CAD) (in its higher forms)

allows many product designs and production

plans to be tested through simulations rather

than through the building and manipulation

of prototypes. Accordingly, an aircraft manufacturer developed a CAD package for rationalizing piping design, replacing its prior practice of building full-scale mockups of pipe layouts against which production piping was then

matched. 7 These two practices, prototype and

simulation, have vastly different implications

for staffing: in simple terms, prototype construction involved production labor, especially

skilled workers, while simulation and computer analysis involve engineers and technicians.

Other cases of process change are even more

dramatic. For example, when IBM installed

a robot to test pin placement for component

wiring, the robotic application essentially eliminated the practice of delayed testing of completed assemblies by people using diagnostic

software packages. (This robotic application

may in turn be replaced by a process for chemically bonding wires to boards, eliminating the

need for pins.) As these examples suggest,

even stand-alone applications of programmable automation can give rise to radical manufacturing process changes. The more extensive the process change, the more obscure the

direct implications for jobs even though the

potential impact may be substantially greater.

Process change, with or without automation, often is accompanied or occasioned by a

change in product design. * This combination

7

0TA case study.

*For exmple, continuing reductions in computer size reduce

the number of parts used in computers, resulting in fewer fabrication and assembly tasks. Also, companies seeking to design

products for ease of production are increasingly designing products that can be assembled like “layer cakes, ” built from the

bottom up in layers with no need for upending during assembly. Such design changes reduce production labor with or

without automation.
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment . 109

of events generally complicates the analysis

of displacement. Most employment forecasts

assume constant product characteristics,

which imply constant (average) requirements

for labor, capital, and materials. The more

variables that change, the harder it is to model

production and forecast related employment.

Furthermore, conventional employment forecasting techniques are ill-suited to evaluate

simultaneous changes in product and process

characteristics because these potentially involve changes in industry characteristics, such

as production scale, number of firms, and number and nature of suppliers.

Task Creation

Although process change may vary in degree, it is the principal reason that programmable automation can also be said to create

jobs. Tasks (and thus jobs) are created through

technology change in several ways: first, the

use of programmable automation may entail

more intensive work in some areas. For example, automated systems tend to require more

maintenance work than conventional and

stand-alone equipment, in part because the

cost of a breakdown is much higher. Similarly, CAD and CAE (computer-aided engineering applications of CAD) may stimulate design

and engineering activity. As those technologies have made design and product engineering easier and cheaper, employers have hired

more engineers.

Second, the introduction of software and integrated databases associated with programmable automation creates a need for new types

of support work, such as database management, software maintenance, and programing.

Taking the long view, however, some support

tasks may only be needed temporarily: The integration of different types of equipment

eliminates some of the programing work associated with separate units. This phenomenon is discussed further in a later section of

this chapter (see “Transient Skill Requirements”).

Third, if buyers want a given product, programmable automation may help producers

sell enough to maintain or even increase employment. For example, several small metalworking firms studied by OTA increased their

business (and employment) by using NC machinery, which helped them to deliver more

quickly and develop better bids.8 Change in

employment levels depends most heavily on

the level of demand for different products,

which depends in turn on consumer preferences and budgets.

Fourth, the production, distribution, and

servicing of programmable automation will

also generate tasks and jobs. Since automated

equipment sometimes replaces conventional

equipment, the net increase in work depends

on how much employment falls among producers of conventional equipment. For example, companies may buy robots as an alternative to nonprogrammable materials-handling equipment. The employment potential

within the PA-producing industries is discussed in a later section.

Other Task Effects

Programmable automation is also used for

tasks people are not well-suited for or likely

to do, because the tasks would be too difficult,

risky, and/or time-consuming, and consequently too expensive.* One example is the design

of integrated circuits, for which computer assistance is considered necessary (although conceivably teams of people at drawing boards

could eventually do what individuals at terminals do much more quickly). Similarly, for

certain types of complex machining (e.g., for

ships’ propellers), NC is considered necessary

80TA case study.

*The application of PA to hazardous and unpleasant tasks

is discussed in ch. 5, ‘‘Work Environment. One example,

though, is Chrysler’s decision to use a robot to paint the inside of a rninivan. According to the vice president for manufacturing, “It replaces only one guy, so costwise, it will never pay

off. But painting the inside of a van is the most miserable job

in the plant. ” See John Holusha, “Chrysler: New Van and

Plant, ” The New York Times, Oct. 28, 1983.
110 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

or preferable. In both cases, the equipment is

not totally automatic; human input is required. At this time, programmable automation appears essential for only a relatively few

tasks. That set may be enlarged as manufacturers refine and take advantage of PA’s capabilities and as totally new products are invented. The inability to forecast such new

products again interferes with employment

forecasting.

Effects of Programmable Automation

on Skills

Programmable automation, through its effects on the tasks performed in manufacturing firms, also affects the types of job skills

required for those tasks. In some cases, the

creation of new tasks and the elimination of

old ones clearly raises or lowers skill requirements. Often, however, the effect on skill

demand is ambiguous, because the skills associated with individual jobs and the average

skill level of a company’s jobs depend on how

work is allocated among individuals. Skill demand also depends on how well employers understand what skills they really need. By altering the balance of work between people and

machines, PA makes it possible for managers

to reallocate work in ways that either raise or

lower the skill requirements of jobs.

OTA’s appraisal of the effects of PA on the

workplace suggests that these technologies

will alter both the “depth” and “breadth” of

skill requirements. Skill depth refers to the input needed to perform an individual task or

group of interconnected tasks, while skill

breadth refers to the input needed to perform

a set of (nonsimilar) tasks. For example, a

journeyman machinist (who sets up and operates machine tools, applying a knowledge of

mechanics, mathematics, metallurgy, layout,

and machining) has skill depth in the area of

machining. Traditionally, subjective notions

about which people do skilled work—e.g., craftsmen, professionals, specialists-draw on the

concept of skill depth. Skill breadth has traditionally been viewed with more ambivalence—

e.g., “jack of all trades and master of none. ”

This is one reason why labor contracts in

unionized firms, for example, contain job classifications that define relatively narrowly the

requirements and tasks of specific jobs. It is

these qualities that govern people’s perceptions about whether skill requirements have

risen or fallen.

Skill Depth

Skill depth has two dimensions: time to proficiency, and judgment. Jobs comprised of

tasks that require little or no time to master

(e.g., food service or filing) and limited judgment tend to be low-skilled jobs in which access is broad and pay is relatively low. The

longer the time to proficiency, the more likely that formal training is required for hiring

and promotion. For example, conventional

drafting requires at least 2 years of technical

training, while electrical engineering requires

at least 4 years of formal training. Although

salaried (so-called “white collar”) and hourly

(“blue collar") work traditionally offer different, usually quite separate, career paths,

both types of work include hierarchies of jobs

that differ in terms of time to proficiency and

judgment, as well as other traits.

Programmable automation seems to lower

the time to proficiency and judgment required

for many tasks, including those performed by

professionals as well as craftworkers. Thus, it

——

‘U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Dictionary of Occupational 7Ytles, 4th ed. (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing C)ffice, 1977).
—

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment . 111

.

tends to reduce the need for skill depth in related jobs. Through computerization (and accompanying aspects of mechanical design),

automated equipment offers the ability to perform a variety of relatively easy-to-learn tasks

(e.g., drawing basic shapes) and increasing

numbers of more sophisticated tasks (e.g.,

process planning). With PA relevant information is, in effect, shared between operators and

equipment. People working with automated

systems therefore have fewer decisions to

make, while those who control the design of

a system have more.

Thus, reduction in skill depth is largely due

to a shift in emphasis away from complex

manual work and toward simpler mental work,

but it may involve decreases in both manual

and mental tasks. For example, a study comparing early NC machine tools to conventional

equipment noted that physical effort was diminished (in an amount depending on the extent of “automation”), demand for motor skills

“and the associated perceptual load related to

precision and accuracy of movement” were reduced, and the number of operator decisions

fell. *

Computerization may affect skill requirements by allowing greater freedom in the allocation of tasks. For example, NC technology

allows programing to be separated from machine operation; CNC (computerized numerical

control), however, facilitates the combination

of programing and operation into a single job.

If NC programing is performed by a separate

programer, less judgment and proficiency is

required for machine operation. As another example, CAD systems are being developed that

prevent certain actions, including mistakes.**

*Whi]e ‘+conceptu~ skill associated with the interpretation

of symbolic information in the form of drawings, planning instructions and calculations” rose, in more modern NC applications these tasks are often done by the programer rather than

the operator. R. J. Hazlehurst, et al. “A Comparison of the Skills

of Machinists on Numerically-Controlled and Conventional

~Machines, ” Occupational Psychology, vol. 43, Nos. 3&4, 1969.

**At least one commercially available system (COmpUtervi -

sion’s CADDS 4) prevents design detailers from permanently

changing designs.

— .—————.—— - —

On the other hand, CAD itself may allow engineers to complete designs without the aid

of draftsmen.

Since there is less to learn to operate CAD

or NC equipment, people with initially lower

skills can produce better, faster than they

could with conventional technology. Recognizing this, many companies have separated machine operation from NC programing in order

to hire less-skilled machine operators instead

of high-skilled machinists. However, this is

less likely to occur where the product is extremely complex and/or the work less easily

shared. OTA’s studies of machine shops at

both small and large firms show that employers prefer skilled machinists to operate NC

machines for complex tasks. It is not clear that

further refinement of NC technology will eliminate this need, although it may reduce it. Consequently, it is dangerous to generalize about

the impact of PA on skill requirements and

staffing.

The removal of skill and the fragmentation

of work have always occurred with mechanization. What makes programmable automation

different from dedicated, or “hard,” automation is the ability to reduce the skill required

for specific tasks at higher levels in the organization (see discussions of aircraft company

case study in ch. 5).

Skill Breadth

The potential effects of PA on skill breadth,

which applies more to jobs or occupations than

to single tasks, are less evident than the effects on skill depth. Requirements for the variety of skills in a job are determined by employers, who define specific jobs and hierarchies.

PA and other technologies do not force specific

forms of work organization; they provide employers with sets of choices about job design

and division of labor.

OTA’s case studies and other sources suggest that, in some cases, personnel working

with PA may require less intimate knowledge

of a single process or task but also a general
112 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

knowledge of more tasks. Among the cases examined by OTA, skill breadth was most required for repair and maintenance personnel.

These personnel have been confronted with

more varied types of equipment on the job,

and with equipment that combines electrical,

electronic, and mechanical features. Also, programmable automation calls more attention

to production processes, to the linkage (with

and without computer-based integration) of activities into systems and of system to system.

Consequently, some experts argue that professional, technical, and managerial staff, in

particular, require broader familiarity with

production activities and their interconnections (as well as an understanding of the

means and limitations of computer control).

Skill breadth may be associated with changing job content. A Japanese survey of elecEffects of Programmable

trical machinery workers reported that most

of these workers found that microelectronics

was associated with frequent change in the

content of their work.10 Elsewhere, Japanese

researchers concluded from a series of automation case studies that changes in jobs and job

content erode the value of experience; one reported solution was to promote experienced

workers to various tasks involving watching

over equipment.11

—

‘ODenki Roren, “Surveys on the Impacts of MicroElectronics

and Our Policies Towards Technological Innovation, ” paper pre

sented at the 4th IMF World Conference for the Electrical and

Electronics Industries, Oct. 3-5, 1983.

“Japan Labor Association, “A Special Study Concerning

Technological Innovation and Labor-Management Relations, ”

interim report, June 1983.

Automation Employment

By User Industry

Which people will face changing job opportunities depends on which industries are likely to use programmable automation, when,

where, and how, as well as on the capabilities

of the technologies. Given the range of potential applications described in chapter 3, it is

possible to identify the industries as well as

the occupational groups likely to be affected.

Indeed, because of its flexibility (and other attributes), PA can be used in a remarkably

broad range of industries. In this regard, it is

but one manifestation of the growing use of

computer technologies taking place throughout the economy. This section will discuss PA

users; the employment potential of PA producers (who also tend to be users) is discussed

later in the chapter.

The first and principal users of the technologies addressed in this report have been firms

in the so-called metalworking industries—primary metals, fabricated metal products, electrical machinery (includes electronics), nonelectrical machinery, transportation equipment,

and instruments12--particularly the electrical

and nonelectrical machinery and transportation equipment industries.13 Together these industries employed almost 10 million people in

1980; the electrical and nonelectrical machinery and transportation equipment industries

employed almost 8 million. Their occupational

profiles are shown in table 17. Other industries, including architectural and engineering

services, have also begun to be significant

users of programmable automation; engineer-

‘

z

Industries designated by Standard Industrial Classification

(SIC) codes 33-38.

“Ibid. (SIC 35-37).
— ——-

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment • 113 —— —

Table 17.—Occupational Profiles of Manufacturing Industries

Employment in Manufacturing Industries by Major Occupational Group, 1980

All Managers Industry occupations and officers

Technical I Service

workers

1 8

31

3 5

2 2

1 2

21

1 9

1 7

1 7

2 2

1 5

1 6

1 3

1 4

2 0

1 6

1 6

1 4

2 2

1 7

1 7

Clerical

Workers

115

100

105

8 8

91

64

11 1

105

21 1

1.16

11 .1

9 5

104

9 0

8 2

9 8

133

123

9 7

149

14 1

Sales workers

2 2

3 3

1 2

9

14

1 7

2 3

24

74

32

45

15

23

20

9

19

1 8

1 0

5

1 9

2 8

Professional

workers workers

6 9

2 7

3 7

1 7

1 2

1 5

2 2

4 3

9 9

123

9 4

4 1

1 4

31

3 8

4 2

.

All manufacturting 2 9

Food and kindred products

Tobacco products

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

1000

— —

6 6

6 4

5 9

3 7

3 6

6 2

5 3

5 3

101

9 8

7 3

6 5

3 9

7 3

3 9

6 6

7 8

6 4

5 8

8 7

7 7

681

732

72.8

8 1 9

832

81 4

764

743

488

526

628

751

806

756

794

737

607

603

647

537

688

7

1 9

9

2

8

8

1 5

10

5 3

3 1

1 7

3

1 4

1 9

21

5 4

6 2

3 9

7 4

1 5

Textile mill products

Apparel and other textile products

Lumber and wood products, except

furniture

Furniture and fixtures

Paper and allied products

Printing and publishing

Chemicals and allied products

Petroleum refining and related

industries

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics

products

Leather and leather products

Stone clay glass and concrete

products

Primary metal products

Fabricated metal products

Machinery except electrical and

transportation equipment

Electrical and electronic machinery

Transportation equipment

Instruments and related products

Miscellaneous manufacturing

industries

9 4

123

131

116

I

3 5

Percent Distribution of Employment in Manufacturing Industries by Major Occupational Group, 1980

Production

maintenance

Technical Service work- construction Clerical workworkers ers

repair material Sales workers

handling and ers

Managers and Professional

I

officer s

Industry

workers

powerplant

workers

13767 040‘

+

All manufacturing 594270

-- )

1328,160

107750

–.

1404080

+

373150 2322400 438710

Food and kindred products 12000 t

Tobacco products 122 0

Textile mill products 7,750

Apparel and other textile products I 2,250

Lumber and wood products except

furniture 5,090

Furniture and fixtures 3 610‘

Paper and allied products 10,500

Printing and publishing 12,620

Chemicals and allied products 58,990

Petroleum refining and related

industries 6,290

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics

products 45,860 12,190

Leather and leather products 9,130 720

Stone clay glass, and concrete

products 48,720 9,580

Primary metal products 47,550 22,3201

Fabricated metal products

I

103,670 33,650

Machiney, except electrical and

transportation equipment 195,630 134,550

Electrical and electronic machinery 133,520 129,720

Transportation equipment 106,320 72,110

[instruments and related products 61,500 52,840

Miscellaneous manufacturing

industries 32,400 6,270

I

45,360

2,380

14,710

15,500

9,8901

10,200

30,190

124,2701

137650

19,030

28,880’

3,390

I

20,930

46,350

67,110

234,740

255,880

240,400

82,460

14760 I

52000

2,230

19,110

15,290

13,520

8,510

11,570

20,980

24700

3080

11420

3030

9520

23540

25750

39,9-00

29,310

40,480

12130

7,0801

241 080

4627 0

713,410 I

057,890’

534,720

348,250

519530

612420

5875201

1272901

534150

190440

503440

956430

69730 66910

6960 760

76,780 7,040

16 190 18.420

3,780

31,980

45,820

41,0701

24,3001

37,3401

26,8301

10000

14,7901

41,920 11060

50490 10470

73240

264,290

162670

16540

92890

35290

23040 9170

67470

24640

11 020

4840

60 1313

98230

13310

10680

1,164180 154,800 30800

1 515640 332493 44 140

1,254920 255,900 20390

1,168110 178,180 9470

381,320 105,970 13 540

290,0301 59280 11 970

SOURCE Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupatlona/ Employment In fdanufacfur~ng Indusfr(es Bulletln 2133 September 1982
114 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

ing and architectural services employed 557,000

people in 1980.14

Application of the PA technologies will grow

relatively quickly among these early users.

Their experience will facilitate further application of PA, including the integration of systems. For example, GM’s widely publicized

plan to have over 14,000 robots by 1990 reflects not only the firm’s size, but also its experience with robots and its understanding of

how and where to use them. Because use of

automated production technologies, in particular, will probably remain concentrated in

these industries through this decade, principal

near-term employment impacts will also be

concentrated in these industries.

Programmable automation will be applied

in a growing variety of industries because of

improving capabilities, falling costs, and growing experience with particular applications, as

well as the perceived effect on competitiveness. Materials handling, assembly, simulation, and inventory control applications can

be used across the manufacturing sector; this

contrasts with the more narrow market for

robotic spot welding and spray painting, NC

machining, and CAD for electronic equipment.

Already, industries such as food processing,

textiles, apparel, and paper manufacturing

have begun to explore use of programmable

automation, especially robots. Applications of

these technologies will spread both within the

manufacturing sector and outside of it, but

sufficiently slowly that significant effects on

employment outside of the metalworking industries are unlikely before 1990.

Some perspective on the unevenness of technology diffusion, and its impact on employment by industry, can be gained from data on

IiBureau of Labor Statistics, ‘‘Employment by Industry ~d

Occupation, 1982 and Selected 1995 Alternatives,” unpublished

data on wage and salary employment, 1983.

the spread of NC technology. In 1968, only 0.5

percent of machine tools in use among metalworking industries in general were numerically

controlled. The percentage was only slightly

higher for nonelectrical machinery industries.

In the 1976 to 1978 period, the overall figure

was 2.0 percent, varying among industries

from 0.3 percent for metal stampings to 5.3

percent for aircraft and parts. The overall figure was 4.7 percent by 1983. These figures underscore the fact that production technologies

tend to spread slowly and unevenly. Within

the machine-tool industry itself, the proportion of NC machine tools was 2.6 percent in

1973, 3.7 percent in 1976-78, and 6 percent in

1983. ’6

Firm size may affect the incidence of employment impacts within and across industries. To

date, most users of PA, especially the production technologies, have been large firms. Such

firms may continue to dominate as users because they can more easily purchase equipment, buy or build on previous know-how, and

otherwise afford to automate.16 Industries

dominated by large firms may therefore experience faster employment change than industries dominated by smaller firms, other

things being equal; the changes will come in

larger doses. On the other hand, larger firms

generally have more capacity to transfer and

retrain displaced personnel, making layoffs

less likely. Also, supplier-buyer links between

large and smaller firms may hasten the adoption of programmable automation by smaller

firms.* The domination of the aerospace and

auto industries by a few large firms linked to

“’’The 13th American Machinist Inventory of Metalworking

Equipment 1983, ” American Machinist, November 1983; and

National Machine Tool Builders’ Association, 1983-84 Handbook of the Mach”ne Tool Industry.

“Steven M. Miller, Potential Impacts of Robotics on Manufacturing Costs With”n the Metalworking industries, doctoral

dissertation, CarnegieMellon University, 1983.

*SO, too, will improvement of low cost systems timed at

smaller users.
—

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment . 115

...— . —.— —— ——

a number of smaller suppliers can heighten the

employment impacts within those industries. *

Geographic Incidence

Programmable automation will exacerbate

employment problems in certain geographic

areas in the short term (i.e., the 1980’s). In the

longer term, however, its impacts will be more

general.

Given the differing tendencies of different

industries to use programmable automation,

employment in the East North Central and

Middle Atlantic regions, plus individual States

such as California and Texas, are most likely

to be affected during this decade, as well as

the next. Employment in such metalworking

industries as automobiles and nonelectrical

machinery is concentrated in the East North

Central region, especially in Ohio, Michigan,

and Illinois; the Middle Atlantic region is a

major source of industrial machinery; California and Texas are major sources of electrical

machinery and aerospace products. See figure

15 for a comparison of regional differences in

manufacturing employment. These areas include the six States that had 5 percent or more

of their employment in manufacturing and together held over 42 percent of all manufacturing employees, according to the 1977 Census

of Manufacturers (latest version available)—

California (9 percent), New York (8 percent),

Pennsylvania (7 percent), Ohio (7 percent), Illinois (7 percent), and Michigan (6 percent).

In the short term, areas most dependent on

single firms or industries will be the most vulnerable to the effects of employment change.

*( )n ( ht, O( h[~r h:ln(i. the mn~.ement among major metalworking firms toward using fewer suppliers (to improl’e quality control) ma~ shift suppl? husiness toward larger firms. which may

ha~e a greater propensity to automate. The extent of this movement \raries among industries. It is especially pronounced in

the auto industry, for example. See Nancy Kingman, “0EMs

I)]an to [J t ilize Fewer Supplier Firms, ” .4merican ,Jle!al .%fark(~[ ,’tletalwrorkjng ,N’ewTs, Oct. 10, 1983.

As the authors of an OECD study of job losses

in major industries across countries noted,

“the proportion of the community’s workers

involved in the primary cutbacks’ is the principal determinant of the effect of displacement

and unemployment on a community. ’7 This

proportion, and a related factor, the diversity of the local economy, both affect the ability of the local labor market to absorb displaced

workers. Such vulnerability, however, exists

independently of PA or any other technology;

lack of economic diversity has long been

known to make local economies vulnerable to

any changes in hiring by dominant employers.

As table 18 shows, States with a lot of manufacturing were likely to have experienced

above-average unemployment over the past 7

years, although other States also experienced

high unemployment.

The East North Central region is particularly likely to experience unemployment because

of its association with the auto industry. That

industry is not only a major user of programmable automation, but is also particularly sensitive to import competition and to changing

consumer car-buying behavior. Consequently,

even before the auto industry’s use of robots

was attracting much publicity, there was speculation that industry employment might not

re-attain the peak levels achieved in 1978 and

1979. The same area is also experiencing job

losses associated with other industries, such

as the industrial, farm, and construction machinery industries. These industries are not

only automating but have also been contracting due to import competition and the cyclical

declines in business.

Increasingly, the employment impacts of

programmable automation will become dispersed because of the broadening geographic

distribution of manufacturing activity. Over

—

‘“Robert B. MCKersie and ~~’(’rnt’r Sen~~’nt~~~r~pr, ,~oIJ ],oss~,s

in Alajor Industrim (Paris: ol’~L’1), 1 983].
116 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— — —

Figure 15.– Regional Manufacturing Employment

Employment as a percent of U.S. total, by State: 1977

—, 0

H

Percent of total

Change in employment, by State: 1967-77

.0

H

.

SOURCE U S Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census
—

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment • 117

—

Table 18.—Unemployment Rates by State,a 1976-82

1976 1977 1978 1979 198 0 1981 1982 —

Annual average - —

rate (0/0 ) 7.2 6.7 5.7 5.6 6.9 7,3 9.3

Distribution of State unemployment relative to averege – ‘

-

—

Number of years

above average

o

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Number of

States

14

2

4

5

6

7

4

9

51

Identity of States

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas-, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North

Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wyoming

Maryland, Montana

Connecticut, Georgia, Missouri, Vermont

Kentucky, Massachusetts, Nevada, South Carolina, Wisconsin

Arizona, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana

Arkansas, Louisiana, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Tennessee

California, Delaware, Mississippi, New York

Alabama, Alaska, District of Columbia, Michigan, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode

Washington. West Virginia

— . .—. .——.

Island.

aI r) - I ud I n q the DI st rIc t of CO I urn bla

SOURCE U S Department of Labor Burea(~ of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey

the last two or three decades, manufacturing

has grown in the South and in the Western regions of the country, aided in part by government spending. Between 1960 and 1970, the

number of manufacturing employees in the

Northeast was almost constant, while in all

other regions it grew substantially. Between

1970 and 1980, manufacturing employment

fell in the Northeast, remained constant in the

North Central region, and grew relatively

rapidly in the South and West. By 1980, over

43 percent of manufacturing employment was

in the South and West regions.18

The growth in manufacturing employment

in the South and West reflects lower production costs in those regions compared with the

Northeast and North Central, as well as a

growth of the aerospace and electronics industries in California and several Southern States.

These areas have benefited from space program funding in the 1960’s and defense program funding since the 1950’s. Between 1951

and 1976, for example, the South’s share of

military prime contract awards rose from 11

to 25 percent, while the West’s share grew

from 16 to 31 percent. ” Defense and space

“tJames A. Orr, Haruo Shimada, and Atsushi Seike, “U, S.-

Japan Comparative Study of Employment Adjustment, ” draft,

U.S. Department of Labor and Japan Ministry of Labor, Nov.

9, 1982.

‘Vh; ileen Appelbaum, “ ‘Iligh Tech’ and the Structural Unemplo}’rnent of the I+; ighties, paper presented at the American

~~conomic Association Meeting, JI”ashington, D. C., I)ec. 28,

1981.

R&D has, in turn, led to commercial manufacture of such associated products as calculators

and semiconductors being concentrated in the

same regions.

The dispersion of manufacturing does not,

however, preclude regional variation in the

rate and type of technology change. A recent

study of geographic patterns in the use of metalworking equipment found:

The more advanced production technologies

are being introduced in the higher skill, higher

wage areas of the industrial Midwest while

less of these technologies or less advanced versions are being introduced to a lesser degree

in the low wage, lower skill labor markets of

the South and West.20

The authors suggest that there is a “matching of capital with labor by region, ” a phenomenon that will influence the geographic incidence of technological displacement and associated unemployment.

The dispersal of manufacturing activity and

the growth of service industries among regions

have allowed regional economies to diversify.

This has made most regions less sensitive to

changes in manufacturing employ merit.* One

“’John Rees, et al., “The Adoption of New Technology in the

American Machinery Industry, ” Occasional Paper No. 71, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University, August 1983.

*Note, however, that encouragement of jUSt-iIl-tirtle SUPP]J’

systems b? the auto and other industries may encourage recentralization (for the auto industry, at least, in the Midwest).
118 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employmentr Education, and the Workplace

——

indicator of how widely PA use is dispersed

is the distribution of service centers and demonstration facilities established by vendors.

Vendor literature and the trade press suggest

that such facilities are distributed quite broadly across the country.

Another influence on geographic incidence

is the combination of PA with advanced telecommunications systems linking facilities

across a region or even across countries. For

example, Lockheed has found that its use of

CAD and CAM has affected its interfacility

activity.

Inter-company use of CADAM-generated

data through an interactive system using

satellites allows for the transmission of

CADAM models between four Lockheed companies that are now on-line. Once the remaining companies have been added to the network, said [a Lockheed official], “we can

design at one plant, program at another and

manufacture at still another plant. “21

Automation producers face similar prospects.

For example, ASEA Robot Co. has facilities

in Detroit, White Plains, New York City,

Houston, and Los Angeles, and it installs

robots around the country. It adopted a communications system “that will allow ASEA

engineers in New Berlin (Wis.) to work directly

with technicians installing equipment anywhere in the nation’ through computer connections. 22 Computer and telecommunications

links, together with PA systems, enable manufacturers to spread a given complement of

personnel across a large geographic area and

avoid fully staffing separate local facilities.

There is also an international dimension to

geographical impacts. In particular, the availability of programmable automation may influence manufacturers’ decisions about locating production in the United States or abroad.

Some proponents of PA argue that a principal

benefit may be to stem or reverse the exodus

of manufacturing jobs to other countries. ——

““I, ockheed Exec: 30B Automation Market by 1990, ” American Metal Nfarkeb’kfetalworking News, Sept. 26, 1983.

“Robert Fixmer, “Swedish Robots Pick Wisconsin” (Madison), Capitai ‘i’’irnes, Mar. 5, 1983.

There is some evidence that the cost-reducing

effect of PA has motivated companies to locate more electronics facilities in the United

States than they might have previously. For

example, GM-Delco recently expanded U.S.

production instead of going overseas.23 Also,

AT&T attributes its plans to consolidate most

of its consumer telephone manufacturing within the United States to automation, as well as

to the benefits of domestic location for responsiveness to changing technologies and consumer preferences. According to an AT&T official:

Far East, Central and South American labor rates are low , . . but we are designing and

building our products for automated assembly, displacing labor with capital . . .

Changes in our manufacturing operations generally represent changes in technology—

moving from electromechanical phones to

electronic phones. Because that technology

has spread throughout the product line, and

a high percentage of the value added in a product line is electronics, we are able to use

automated assembly instead of the human assembly line.24

However, cost is not the only reason why

producers choose to locate offshore. Where

producers are motivated by a desire to be near

a foreign market, especially if local-content

laws there require local production, no reduction in costs at home will keep such production in the United States. Thus, auto and electronics producers continue to operate, expand,

and buy from overseas production facilities.

Digital Electronic Corp., for example, expects

that half of its materials requirements will be

filled by overseas sources over the next 3 to

5 years, whereas 15 percent is now.25 If, on the

other hand, programmable automation encourages more small-batch production of goods

aimed exclusively at the domestic market, es-

—

“John Iiolusha, “G. M. Fllectronics Back in U. S,” The New

York Times, June 20, 1983.

“1.aurel Nelson-Rowe, “AT&T Shifting More of Its Consumer

E]hone Manufacturing to U.S., ” Communications Week, Jan.

30, 1984.

“Nancy Kingman, “OEMs Plan to Utilize Fewer Supplier

Firms, ” American Metal Market,~Metalworking News, Oct. 10,

1983.
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment • 119

pecially goods tailored to specific regional or

ethnic preferences, then domestic manufacturing may benefit even if overseas locations remain most economical for mass production. *

Insofar as multinational corporations stand-

—

*The time-savings benefits of computerized apparel equipment may help domestic firms compete with importers because

they can deliver more quickly. “When a customer can order

something and have it in his store in 2 weeks, there’s no way

the imports can compete, ” according to one clothing maker.

See Fran Hesser, “Clothing Makers Try to Sew Up Labor Costs,

Foreign Competition, ” The Atlanta Constitution, Sept. 21,

1983.

ardize products across companies or draw on

standard components, it may be harder to isolate production for the U.S. market from production for world markets. This prospect has

been raised by the discussions of the “world

car. “** It is also becoming an issue for production of automation hardware (see ch. 7).

**Ford, for example, has a computer and communications

system linking engineers in Europe and the United States for

automotive design and analysis work. “Computer-Aided Engineers: Worldwide Dedicated Computers Analyze Into Structures, ” Tooling and Production, October 1983.

Effects of Programmable Automation on

Occupational Employment

Occupational impacts of individual automation technologies and of accompanying major

process changes will vary enormously among

industries. In the absence of detailed company

and industry studies of the deployment of

labor across the economy, data on employment by occupation are the only means of

counting people potentially exposed to the risk

of displacement. * They can also be used to

develop inferences about new jobs and occupations. Such estimates, it must be understood,

are rough at best.

Selected Detailed Occupational Groups

Engineers

In many ways, engineers are a central factor in the employment changes expected to

occur with programmable automation. Engineers develop automation technologies; they

work with them; yet they are not immune to

being displaced by them.

Engineers contribute to both the production

and use of PA. The mix of engineers by discipline found in an enterprise varies with the

nature of the product or research topic; but

*such data are princip~ly available through the Bureau of

Labor Statistics (BLS), although some are also available from

the Bureau of the Census, the National Science Foundation, and

from private sources. Most data presented in this chapter are

for 1980, which represents essentially prerecession conditions

and conditions prior to much of the recent growth in PA use.

in general, electrical/electronic and mechanical

engineers design equipment and systems, and

industrial/manufacturing engineers as well as

electrical and mechanical engineers design applications. Different industries have different

needs for special engineering disciplines, such

as aeronautical/astronautical, chemical, and

metallurgical engineers. Typically, employers

prefer that engineers have at least a bachelor’s

degree, although individuals without such

training can be certified by the Society of Manufacturing Engineers to perform certain types

of production engineering, and sometimes individuals attain the title of engineer through

promotion from other positions. Engineers

who perform research usually hold advanced

degrees. The employment share of manufacturing engineers with degrees reflects the fact

that employers and schools alike have historically held this engineering discipline in lower

regard than others (although this view is

changing, as discussed later).**

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

Total employment of engineers in 1980 was

over 1.1 million, including about 580,000 employed in manufacturing. In 1982, nearly

** N. b., statistics collected by BLS treat manufacturing engineering as a subset of industrial engineering, although in the

vernacular the term industrial engineer has a more limited

meaning.
120 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

———

590,000 engineers were employed in manufacturing industries.

Engineers have become more prevalent in

manufacturing industries over the past several

years. Sectoral employment of engineers grew

despite the recessions, although individual industries suffered declines in engineering employment between 1980 and 1982. Engineers

comprise nearly a third of professional and

technical personnel across the manufacturing

sector. The electrical and noneletrical machinery, transportation equipment, and a few other

relatively technology-intensive industries (e.g.,

instruments and chemicals) together employ

over 80 percent of the engineers working in

manufacturing industries.26 The number and

distribution of engineers reflects many factors,

particularly changes in process technology and

patterns in defense spending (the principal factor behind employment trends for aeronautical

engineers). See table 19. The relatively large

growth in electrical engineering employment,

for example, reflects the spread of microelectronics across various products and processes.

Technology change and other factors are

causing growth in design and production engineering activity, which in turn supports

growth in demand for engineers. In some

cases, programmable automation is merely a

vehicle for engineering activity motivated by

other factors; in others, the nature of PA itself

is a cause of growth in engineering. The use

of CAD, for example, may be associated with

increased design engineering activity because

it makes design cheaper and therefore easier

to do more often.* This is especially likely in

—

*“’Changing Employment Patterns of Scientists, Engineers,

and Technicians in Manufacturing Industries: 1977 -1980,” National Science Foundation, 1982. *ThiS wo~d b similm b the experience with computer-based

technologies for financial services, the adoption of which was

associated with ~owth in certain banking transactions.

industries (e.g., special semiconductors) where

product differentiation and customization are

increasingly important. In some industries

(e.g., computers and aerospace), CAD/CAE facilitates faster advances in product technology, allowing more (and more complex)

products to be introduced in a given period of

time.**

Design requirements of FMS and automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS)

are increasing producer needs for engineers.

Cincinnati Milacron, for example, reports using thousands of engineering hours to analyze

FMS needs of potential customers.27 Across

manufacturing generally, production engineering activities are growing because programmable automation and market factors are focusing attention on product quality, production processes, and the links between design

and production. The growth of PA products

and markets is itself a source (albeit limited)

of increased engineering design and production activity and employment. The more complex the application of PA, and/or the greater

the change in the production process, the

greater the investment in engineering will be.

As was suggested earlier, the spread of programmable automation influences the mix of

engineers. In particular, it is contributing

(because of changes in materials technology,

as well as the growing concern with manufacturing processes) to a revival of interest in

the discipline of manufacturing engineering;

schools report greater interest among students

**ACCOr~g to cl~ence Borgmeyer of Pratt a whitney Aircraft, “It takes us approximately as long to design an engine

as it did in 1956, but engine technology has grown infinitely

more complex. We couldn’t begin h solve May’s problems with

yesterday’s computers. ” See “Maker of Aircraft Engines Ties

Data Base to CAE Applications on Divisional Scale, ” Computerworki, Sept. 12, 1983.

‘

7 Lauri Giesen, “Industry Interest Sparks FMS Sales Hopes

for ’84, ” American Metal Market/Metalworking News, Dec. 5,

1983.

Table 19.— Number and Distribution of Engineers, 1980
Ch. 4—Effects of Prograrnmable Automation on Employment • 121

———. .

in pursuing a manufacturing engineering major. Also, because of their dependence on systems analysis and the need for development

of computer hardware and software, PA producers and users alike appear willing and able

to substitute computer scientists and systems

analysts for engineers. PA is thus likely to

have similar employment impacts on engineers and systems analysts because of their

overlapping responsibilities, although systems

analyst employment is lower overall* (see

table 20).

A review of want-ads published by PA producers and users over the last 2 to 3 years

shows that companies generally list engineering and computer science degrees as alternative criteria for eligibility when recruiting for

both product and applications development

positions. Among engineering degrees desired,

electrical engineering is listed most frequently, closely followed by mechanical engineering.

Flexible hiring criteria reflect in part a

growth in interdisciplinary work among engineers. Production and use of PA equipment

help to spur interdisciplinary engineering because PA combines electrical, electronic, and

— .

*ln 1 gso, 42,404 computer svstems analysts Were erndwed “

in manufacturing. While manufacturing’s share of computer

systems analyst, operations analyst, and systems analyst employment fell overall during the 1970’s, the proportions employed by metalworking industries generally rose. Between 1970

and 1978, the percent employment of computer specialists rose

for all manufacturing (and for all industries combined), and in

metalworking industries, while the proportions of engineers and

engineering and scientific technicians fell slightly.

Table 20.—Employment of Computer Systems

Analysts, 1980

Number Percent

All industries ., . . . . . . . . . .-. 201,999 0.20%

All manufacturing . . . . . . . . ., . 42,404 0.20

Metalworking machinery and

equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336 0.09

Office, computing, and accounting

machines . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,913 1.60

Electrical industrial apparatus ... . 581 0.24

Electronic components and

accessories . . . 1,146 0,20

Motor vehicles and equipment 945 0.12

Aircraft and parts . . 3,535 0,54

SC)(JRCF Bureau cl Labor Staisf~cs Employment by lndustv and Occupallol

1980 and Proj s!ct ed 1 W’J u r? ;)u IJI I ~r]ed daia o II w~e and salary eTI

IJoymer t

mechanical systems technologies. In addition,

design and production activities often merge

with the use of PA systems, especially CAD/

CAE systems that allow for analysis of production requirements and processes.

The rise in interdisciplinary engineering and

systems analysis suggests that college training for production engineers may become increasingly necessary over time—i.e., it may

become more difficult for individuals lacking

college degrees to rise through the ranks and

obtain engineering jobs. Confirming this assumption, 6,600 manufacturing engineers predieted in a 1979 survey that 50 percent of

plant work forces in the automated environment will be engineers and technicians. Interestingly, while 49 percent of all respondents

had at least a B. A., 61 percent of those between 20 and 29 years of age did.28 However,

recent want-ads suggest that, at least among

today’s users of programmable automation,

employers may be willing to accept several

years of relevant experience in lieu of a technical college degree for some engineering

positions.

The growth in engineering activity caused

by or accompanying programmable automation will not necessarily raise engineering

employment among user firms, although it

may raise it elsewhere. Many users appear to

favor turnkey purchases and rely on vendors

to meet occasional needs for applications

engineering, rather than expand their own

staffs. The Upjohn Institute, for example,

found this to be the case among robot users

generally.” Also, applications engineering

services are available from growing numbers

of third-party engineers employed in consulting and service firms. These engineers may

substitute for in-house staff for either producers or users, performing applications engineering and planning (and sometimes contributing to product development). For example, increasing numbers of programmable con-

.—

‘

m

’’l’he Manuf~~Lurin~ 1:x:#neer: l’ast. l’resent m~ F~tur{~, ”

special report to the nl(’mhcrs~~p of Sl}l ~1, M a~’ Zfi, 1 ~T9

~9~ T AllaHunt ~d ‘]’injoth},1,. 1 I Urit,, T] fJm2J2 ~ie.SOUK’Pa lm -

. .

pficatjon.+ of Robolks, The \L”.” 1?. {J pjohn In>! it ute for I’; n,pImmm~ Rw+w-ch, 1983.
122 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace —

troller installations are handled by third-party

firms. 30

Engineering employment in engineering

services firms has been growing generally, and

if PA consulting and service firms continue to

thrive, the share of engineers employed in

manufacturing firms (per se) may continue to

fall. Although the proportion of manufacturing professional and technical employees represented by engineers has been rising, the proportion of engineers employed in the manufacturing sector is declining. Between 1970 and

1978, the manufacturing sector share of engineer employment fell from 54 to 50 percent,

while the (miscellaneous) service share rose

from under 13 to 17 percent (see table 21).

Within the service sector, engineering employment is concentrated in the engineering and

architectural service industry (a group including a large proportion of self-employed

professional engineers). That industry was the

largest employer of engineers in 1982.31

PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS

OTA’s case studies and other evidence suggest that, while demand for engineers will increase during this decade, automation will

eventually dampen the rate of growth of their

employment in manufacturing industries. This

is likely because: 1) computer-aided design and

engineering increases the output per engineer;* 2) anticipated improvements in such

areas as equipment interfaces will solve some

of today’s problems in applications engineering; and 3) in the long term, if not sooner, there

may be some substitution of technician jobs

for engineering jobs (see the next section).

Although the complexity of PA installations

will grow, so will the capability of automated

900TA case study.

slRon~d E. Kutscher, ‘‘Future Labor Market Conditions for

Engineers, ’ paper prepared for the National Research Council

Symposium on Labor-Market Conditions for Engineers, Feb.

2, 1984.

*For exmple, Ctisler ex~ts that its expanded use of CAD

will not lead to expansion in employment of engineers and designers using the technology. Rather, the company expects to

devote time saved in design and analysis to such other tasks

as tooling and product testing. See “Chrysler Expanding CAD

Network, ” Automotive News, July 12, 1982.

Table 21 .—Percent Distribution of Engineering

Employment by Industry Group, 1970 and 1978

Economic sector

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing . . . . . .

Mining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Durables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Primary metals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Fabricated metals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Machinery, except electrical and

transportation equipment . . . . . .

Electrical and electronic

machinery. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Transportation equipment . . . . . . . .

Automobiles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Professional and scientific

instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Transportation, O.P.U.a 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Wholesale and retail trade . . . . . . . . . . .

Finance, insurance, and real estate. . . .

Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Commercial R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1970

0.18

1.73

8.29

54.26

45.82

2.2

2.46

8.31

13.23

11.97

2.17

8.53

2.36

7.99

4.32

0.71

12.73

1.06

1978

0.27

2.40

7.08

50.08

42.16

2.01

2.44

8.80

12.37

10.53

2.40

7.02

2.48

8.55

4.44

0.75

17.01

1.42

Engineering and architecture . . . . . . . 7.04 9.63

aOther public ut II it!es

NOTE Percentages do not sum to 100 due to exclus!m c,f government employ

ment figures

SOURCE. U S Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The National

Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix, 1970, 1978, and Projected

19%), April 1981

engineering aids, such as simulation systems,

to deal with this complexity. A major aerospace firm, for example, has predicted that its

engineering and related technical staff requirements may fall by as much as one-third once

the company achieves its automation goals;

for some production engineering tasks, the

drop may be as high as 80 percent.32 The aerospace industry represents an extreme case,

because the complexity and the stringent quality standards of aerospace products will probably drive major aerospace firms to greater

levels of computerization and systems integration, and on a faster timetable, than firms in

other industries.

Various trends in industrial organization

will also work to slow the rate of growth in

engineering employment. For example, the

growth in engineering consulting and service

firms means that fewer engineers will be employed than would be if producers and users

satisfied their needs for engineers internally.

3’OTA case study.
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment • 123

Indeed, recent and anticipated growth in engineering and architectural service firms has

been attributed in part to shortages of certain

types of engineers-in effect, fewer engineers

can be spread more thinly by this means .33 Another factor is growth in the number of automation users who also produce automated

equipment and systems. Such user-producers

will draw on engineers involved with their own

use of automation to produce automated

equipment and systems. One reason that

Westinghouse, for example, decided to enter

the robot market was management’s realization that it already had vital in-house engineering expertise.34 Moreover, when Westinghouse

acquired Unimation, it consolidated its robotics work force, since the combined forces of the

two firms were believed to be too large.35

SHORTAGES OF ENGINEERS

In the near term, engineering employment

depends primarily on market conditions and

defense spending. Thus, even though they

“need” engineers to develop new products,

machine-tool builders have laid off engineers

because of depressed sales; also, recent engineering graduates have had difficulty getting

jobs because of the recessions.36 Historically,

engineers have undergone cycles of shortage

and surplus; despite ambiguous evidence,

many in industry now believe that a shortage

of engineers does or will exist. For example,

the Electronic Industries Association recently forecast a shortage of 113,000 electrical and

computer engineers by 1987, based on forecasts of engineering graduates and employment targets reported in a survey of 815 manufacturing facilities employing over 736,000

people. 37 However, employer survey data are

generally considered unreliable by employ-

“U.S. Industrial Outlook, J4rashington, D. C., 1983.

“Laura Conigliaro and Christine Chien, “Computer Integrated Manufacturing, ” Prudential-Bache Securities, Aug. 2,

1983.

35” Westinghouse Revamps Robotics; 40 Jobs Lost, ” Ck”cago

Sun-Times, May 22, 1983.

‘

6 Lauri Gieson, “Engineering Layoffs Raise Questions About

the Domestic Industry’s Future Strength, ” American Metal

MarketlMetalworking News, June 18, 1983.

‘“Bill Laberis, *’Study Predicts Major Engineer Shortage, ”

Computerworld, tJuly 11, 1983.

— —

ment analysts. The shortcomings of this particular survey, for example, were addressed at

the February 1984 National Research Council Symposium on Labor-Market Conditions

for Engineers.

Drawing on more comprehensive data, the

National Science Foundation (NSF) has concluded from a forthcoming study of science,

engineering, and technician (SET) personnel

needed by defense and civilian industries between 1982 and 1987 that (under conservative

assumptions regarding the supply to SET

occupations):

1. the only engineering discipline that will

experience a shortage, regardless of macroeconomic conditions and defense expenditures, is aeronautical/astronautical

(although the sharp drop in the market for

aero/astro engineers in 1982-83 may have

made this less Likely);

2. under stagnant economic conditions and

with low defense expenditures, no other

engineering discipline will experience a

shortage; and

3. with economic growth and high defense

expenditures electrical engineers might be

in short supply .38

NSF and others note that even for a specialized occupational category such as engineers,

the supply of labor includes new graduates and

immigrants. It also includes movement in

from other occupations and movements between disciplines. Such in-mobility is easier for

some disciplines (e.g., electrical and electronic)

than for others (e.g., aeronautical and astronautical) among engineers.39

———

‘“’’Projected Employment Scenarios Show Possible Shortage

in Some Engineering and Computer Specialties, ” Science Resource Stud”es Highlights, National Science Foundation, Feb.

23, 1983. Also, note that “existing Federal programs do not

collect data on shortages of workers in specific occupations; such

data would be very expensive to collect and because of their

complexity their reliability would be questionable. See Neal

H. Rosenthal, “Shortages of Machinists: An Evaluation of the

Information, ” Monthly Labor Review, July 1982.

‘

g

Jean E. Vanski, “Projected I.abor Market Balance in Engineering and Computer Specialty Occupations: 1982 -1987,”

paper prepared for the Symposium on Labor-Market Conditions

for Engineers, National Research Council, Feb. 2, 1984.
124 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Several factors may explain the differences

in perception about engineer availability. For

the purposes of this study, a principal factor

appears to be that employers desire personnel with very specific skills and experience,

qualities that data available to modelers (and

surveys tallying employment goals) may not

reveal. For example, a recruiter from Xerox

recently observed:

We’re looking for hardware design engineers and some software people . . . Many of

the resumes we see are from people right out

of school. Unfortunately, there’s nothing for

them.40

Because it takes time to train engineers and

for them to acquire relevant experience, this

problem is hard to overcome, especially where

technologies are changing rapidly. Furthermore, there is no way to objectively measure

the ability of employers to make do with second-choice job candidates, or to restructure

their work. On the one hand, such steps bring

labor supply into balance with demand. On the

other hand, they raise questions about the adequacy of the quality of labor used to meet occupational demands. Also, employees may prefer graduates with the highest grades and/or

those from the top schools, a group obviously much smaller than the total graduate pool.

In time, employers may well find that a combination of fewer engineers and automated engineering aids will help them to stabilize their

engineering work forces and overcome labor

quality problems. Such an approach appears

to be taken now with production workers; it

may come later for professional and technical

workers.

Technicians

A variety of technological and economic factors are contributing to the growth of technician employment in industry; the growing

numbers and responsibilities of technicians

suggest they are the new “skilled workers” of

the economy.

—..—

‘°Katherine Hafner, “Job Fair Shows Firms Not Seeking Entry-Level DPers, ” Computerworld, May 23, 1983.

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

Technicians employed in industry are classified as engineering, science, health, or other

(not elsewhere classified). Engineering technicians, the principal group within durable manufacturing, include the categories of draftsmen, electrical/electronic engineering, industrial engineering, mechanical engineering,

other engineering; NC tool programmers may

also be considered engineering technicians.

computer programmers (business, scientific,

and technical) are another important class of

technicians in the manufacturing industry. In

1980, combined employment of engineering

technicians, NC tool programmers, and computer programmers was about 1.3 million; it was

about 508,000 in manufacturing. In 1982, the

total-industry and manufacturing levels were

1.5 million and 518,000, respectively (see table

22).

PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS

Technicians are becoming prominent in PA

applications engineering. For example, one

company visited by OTA has developed a

number of robot applications by teaming engineers with technicians. However, it is not

likely that automation will result in a proliferation of narrow technician groups (e.g., “robot

technicians”) for several reasons. Programing

and other preparatory activities can occur relatively infrequently, while production processes and plants generally involve a variety

of equipment, making dedicated applications

planning or other support personnel unlikely

in most cases.

Overall growth among the ranks of technicians does not preclude declines in individual

categories. CAD, for example, will reduce demand for draftsmen, unless trends in product

markets lead design activity to grow substantially.

41 Increases in productivity through

CAD are generally measured as reductions in

time relative to conventional drafting to perform a given task, particularly for detailing,

revisions, or tests of designs (as distinct from

“Tupperware, for example, increased drafting employment

after adopting CAD because the “department is able to produce more.” See Joan FaulAmer, “Computir-Assisted Drafting, ”

‘J”he Providence Journal, Oct. 16, 1983.
. —— —.-

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Ernployment
126 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

——.—

design, per se). Fewer drafting hours, and presumably fewer drafters, are necessary to perform a given amount of work. Also, broader

distribution of terminals and workstations, increased CAD/CAE system capabilities, and

improved interactivity reduce the rationale for

delegating drafting, programing, or data input to specialists. However, the tendency to

train and use existing draftsmen in CAD operations is one reason why demand for them

is likely to continue for quite some time.42

Also, anticipated improvements in equipment integration and interfaces will reduce the

occasion for programing. For example, CAD/

CAE stations are being developed that will

automatically generate (and test) programs for

robots or machine tools, and production equip420TA case studies: want-ads.

I

I

●

\

.

w

.

.

.-

ment is being supplied with increasingly easyto-use software, reducing the need for separate

NC tool programmers or robot programmers.

However, development of such systems is ongoing, and stand-alone NC equipment is likely to remain the norm throughout this decade.

As in the case of engineers, trends in industrial organization may also shape employment opportunities for technicians. First, the

spread of programmable automation is expected to alter design interactions between

prime manufacturers and their suppliers.

Automobile and aerospace manufacturers, for

example, are increasing computer-links with

suppliers for transmission of design specifications. This trend could diminish drafter demand among suppliers. Second, CAD may influence companies’ decisions on whether to do

their own drafting or have it done on the out1

Photo credit Beloit Corp

Computer-aided design system “menu” for drafting, with light pen
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 127

side. A shift to outside drafting, under the

assumption that special service firms will be

more efficient and productive in drafting activities, would further compress overall demand for draftsmen. Growth in the engineering services market for CAD systems suggests that demand for outside drafting, and

perhaps some accompanying demand for outside technicians, may be strong. The manufacturing share of technicians fell between 1970

and 1978 largely because of a growth in the

services share.43 Trends in the 1970’s reflect

a rapid growth in product complexity and design requirements and the use of both manual

and simple CAD systems; the continuation of

these trends is thus uncertain.

In particular, manufacturers who have the

potential to link CAD to production or other

equipment may become less interested in

buying outside drafting services as design

becomes more important in their operations.

One research center, for example, created a

new job category, “CAD/CAM operator, ” and

hired technicians to work with CAD systems

as an alternative to contracting with outside

parties for drafting work.44 Some manufacturers may use their own and outside personnel

at the offices of new CAD service firms, which

provide computer equipment time and technical support to companies unable to afford

their own CAD facilities (see ch. 7).

SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION FACTORS

It is difficult to gauge whether the supply

of technicians will be adequate, because persons can become technicians through many

avenues that may or may not entail formal

‘‘technician training. As will be described in

chapter 6, there is evidence that employers are

beginning to prefer formal training for tech-

— ——.——

“U.S. Department of Labor, 13ureau of Labor Statistics, The

National Industry-Occupation Emploj’ment Matrix, 1970, 1978,

and Projected 1990. Bulletin 2086 (Washington, D. C.: U.S.

Government Printing Office, April 1981). Almost 53 percent

of engineering and science technicians were employed in manufacturing in 1970; almost 48 percent were in 1978. During that

period, the proportion employed in services rose from over 20

percent to almost 24 percent.

“0TA case study.

nicians, and to offer such training to prepare

employees for programmable automation; in

addition, independent, outside training is

available to individuals to prepare for technician careers. Because their educational requirements are less (in terms of time, money,

and rigor) than those of engineers and scientists, the supply of technicians can be increased much faster through appropriate

training. This will tend to support proportionate growth in technicians as a class, although

it is premature to forecast growth in specific

categories.

Because programmable automation lowers

the skill requirements for several engineering

and production tasks, technicians can and do

perform work that previously was considered

either professional or skilled trade work. While

this may always have taken place, PA is likely to make the substitution possibilities more

obvious and numerous. The fact that growth

of technician employment in manufacturing

between 1977 and 1980 exceeded the growth

rate for both scientists and engineers also suggests that technicians are being substituted

for other types of personnel. Growing flexibility in staffing again suggests that conventional

occupational descriptions and staffing conventions are of limited use for gauging future

employment patterns.

Production and Related Workers

This broad category includes “all skilled,

semiskilled, and unskilled workers performing

machine and manual tasks involving production, maintenance, construction, repair, materials handling, and powerplant operations, ”

as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

(BLS). It contains the bulk of the occupations

most directly vulnerable to displacement from

programmable automation, as well as from

past technological changes. Production workers have varied educational backgrounds and

skill levels, but are less likely to have college

training than are other occupational groups

in manufacturing. They tend to acquire their

skills on the job rather than through outside

training.
128 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

OVERALL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

Production and related workers are, overall,

the largest occupational group in manufacturing industry employment, with about 14 million employees in 1980. This group’s share of

manufacturing employment has been declining. In 1980, 68.1 percent of manufacturing

employees were production and related workers, compared with 70.8 percent in 1977. This

group constitutes the largest proportion of

workers in all industries surveyed by BLS in

its Occupational Employment Survey (OES)

of manufacturing industries. According to

1980 OES data, the highest absolute numbers

of these workers are found in the machinery

(1.52 million), electrical and electronic equipment (1.25 million), and transportation equipment (1.19 million) industries-the three broad

industry groups in which PA is produced and

most heavily used.

The group as a whole contains three principal classes of workers, by descending order of

skill: craft and related workers, operatives, and

laborers. In 1980, there were 3,768,395 craft

and related workers, accounting for 18.51

percent of manufacturing employment. This

group included 695,157 (3.4 percent of manufacturing employment) mechanics, repairers,

and installers; 668,002 (3.3 percent) metalworking craftworkers (excluding mechanics);

and 1,751,529 (8.6 percent) others (e.g., welders, painters, etc.). Table 23 details some of the

occupations within these categories. In addition, there were 8,845,318 (43.4 percent) operatives. This group included 1,661,150 (8.2 percent) assemblers; 1,470,169 (7.2 percent) metalworking operatives, and 5,713,999 (28.1 percent) other operatives. Finally, there were

1,576,576 (7.7 percent) laborers. Some of the

occupations within these categories are listed

in table 24. Note that, between 1972 and 1980,

production worker employment grew slowly

across the economy, with employment among

craftworkers growing the most, followed by

laborer employment, and with no growth

among operatives.46

“Carol Boyd Leon, “Occupational Winners and Losers: Who

They Were During 1972 -1980,” Monthly Labor Review, June

1982.

A critical question for future employment

levels among production occupations is whether and how much the total amount of domestic

production changes; technologies that lower

labor input for a given amount of output do

not alone lower employment levels. For example, companies using more (or more expensive)

equipment because of PA may find operating

for more hours in the day more profitable.

Adding one or more production shifts is possible if the companies can sell the extra output;

it also can increase or sustain company employment. On the other hand, if demand does

not support growth in industry output, employment may merely be shifted among firms.

It is important to remember that factors

other than automation are motivating declines

in production employment among metalworking industries: reductions in the amount and

proportion of metal used in a variety of products, and increases in the use of such other materials as plastics and ceramics will reduce

employment of metal craftworkers.* However,

where the materials shift occurs within a given

firm, metalworking employees may move to

work with other materials, keeping their jobs

but changing their labels. Recent increases in

offshore production also depressed domestic

employment in metalworking industries, particularly for production and related workers.

For example, U.S. auto companies have established component plants offshore, and U.S.

aerospace firms have entered into coproduction or other supply agreements with firms located abroad. Increases in imports have a similar effect. Table 25 presents employment in

industries particularly affected by foreign

trade. As noted above, the growth in foreign

sourcing of parts and other products is attributable in part to lower labor costs overseas,

although differences in accounting make precise comparisons difficult.

*Materi~9 chmges also may affect skill requirements. For

example, less skilled workers are needed to install plastic piping than metal piping. Within the miscellaneous plastics products industry, craft and related workers comprised 16 percent

of 1980 employment, while operatives comprised 56 percent.

See James D. York, “Productivity Growth in Plastics Lower

Than All Manufacturing, ” Monthly Labor Review, September

1983.
-. ——

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employmert . 129

— —

Table 23.—Craftworker Employment and Selected Occupations,

(All manufacturing industries, wage and salary workers)

Occupation Number

Craft and related workers ., ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., . .3,768,395

Construction craftworkers . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296,458

Electricians ., ... ... ... ... ... ... . . ... . . 126,001

Plumbers and pipefitters . . . ... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61,747

Mechanics, repairers, and installers . . . . . . . . . ... . ... . . . 695,157

Air-conditioning, heating, and refrigeration mechanics . . . . 11,759

Aircraft mechanics . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 19,603

Automotive mechanics . . . . . . . . . . ... ... . . . . . ... . . 51,867

Data-processing machine mechanics . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . 18,050

Diesel mechanics . . ... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . 3,316

Electrical instrument and tool repairers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,979

Electric motor repairers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,578

Engineering equipment mechanics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,056

Instrument repairers . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,537

Knitting machine fixers . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,578

Loom fixers . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . 17,877

Maintenance mechanics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209,673

Maintenance repairers, general utility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181,851

Millwrights ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68,926

Office machine and cash register servicers ... . . . . . . . . . . . 1,864

Radio and television repairers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,136

Section repairers and setters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,553

Sewing machine mechanics ., ... . . ... ., . . . . . . . . . . 12,141

Metalworking craftworkers, except mechanics . . . . . . . . . . . . . 668,002

Boilermakers ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . ... ... . . . . . . ... 11,966

Coremakers, hand, bench, and floor . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,107

Forging press operators ... ... ... ... . ... 8,727

Header operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,385

Heat treaters, annealers, and temperers ..., . . . . . . . . 24,866

Layout markers, metal . . . . . . . . . . ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,664

Machine tool setters, metalworking 55,312

Machinists .,..,...,.. .,,..,,..,,. ~~~~~~~~~~Ó• 197,849

Molders, metal ..., . . . . . . . . . ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,807

Patternmakers, metal ., . ..., ..., ..., . . ..., ..., . . . 7,336

Punch press setters, metal . . . ..., . . . ..., . . . . . . . . . . 19,141

Rolling mill operators and helpers . . . . . . . . ..., . . . . 10,708

Shear and slitter setters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,462

Sheet-metal workers and tinsmiths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80,729

Tool-and-die makers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158,586

Printing trades craftworkers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357,249

Bookbinders, hand and machine ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..., 22,674

Bindery machine setters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,453

Compositors and typesetters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105,465

Etchers and engravers. . ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,964

Photoengravers and lithographers, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52,601

Press and plate printers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156,242

Other craft and related workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..........1,751,529

Blue-collar worker supervisors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 705,307

Cabinetmakers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28,020

Crane, derrick, and hoist operators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68,589

Food shapers, hand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,431

Furniture finishers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,756

Heavy equipment operators . . . . . . . ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,052

Inspectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433,530

Jewelers and silversmiths. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..., ..., ..., . . . 4,373

Lens grinders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..., ..., ..., . . . . 8,057

Log inspectors, graders, and scalers . ..., . . ..., . . . . 4,701

Logging tractor operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,380

Lumber graders . . ..., ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,614

Machine setters, paper goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,955

Machine setters, plastic materials, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,415

1980

Percent

18.51

1.46

0.62

0.30

3.41

0.06

0.10

025

0.09

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.05

0.11

0.05

0.09

1.03

0.89

0.34

0,01

0.03

0.07

0.06

3.28

0.06

0.04

0.04

0.03

0.12

0.10

0.27

0.97

0.19

0.04

0.09

0.05

0.03

0.40

0,78

1,75

0.11

0.03

0.52

0.06

0.26

0.77

8.61

3.46

0.14

0.34

0.02

0.03

0.08

2,13

0.02

0.04

0.02

0.07

0.03

0.05

0.04
130 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

——

Table 23.—Craftworker Employment and Selected Occupations, 1980

(All manufacturing industries, wage and salary workers) —Continued

Occupation Number Percent

Machine setters, woodworking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,121 0.03

Millers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,204 0.03

Patternmakers, wood ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,716 0.03

Patternmakers, n.e.c. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,374 0.01

Shipfitters ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,389 0.07

Stationary engineers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,684 0.09

Tailors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,107 0.04

Testers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,745 0.51

Upholsterers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,562 0.10

Upholstery cutters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,802 0.03

Upholstery workers, n.e.c. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,495 0.08

Veneer graders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,055 0.02

- Not elsewhere classified

.

n e c

.

SOURCE Bureau of Labor Statlstlcs, ‘Employment by Industry and Occupation, 1980and projected 1990 Alternatives un

publlshed dataon wage and salary employment

MECHANICS, REPAIRERS, AND INSTALLERS

The spread of programmable automation

will increase the proportion and the role of

mechanics, repairers and installers (MRI) in

manufacturing because it will increase rates

of installation and levels of use of equipment,

and because both the risk and cost of production stoppage due to equipment malfunction

will grow as production becomes more capitalintensive. Though the reliability of individual

pieces of equipment appears to be increasing,

isolated problems often affect whole systems

where equipment is integrated. As manufacturers come to depend more on equipment,

their need to be able to respond quickly to

problems will grow. In many cases, that need

will be met by “throwing people at the problem,’’ although the need to do so may decline

as people learn how to develop still better systerns. Between 1972 and 1980, data-processing

machine repairers experienced one of the largest percentage employment increases among

all occupations; employment in this occupation grew 89.4 percent compared to an average

rate of 19.1 percent. Note, however, that individual MRI occupations account for very

small proportions of industry employment

(under 2 percent each). Table 26 shows MRI

employment levels for 1980 across manufacturing industries.

Programmable automation will also have a

major impact on the types of skills required

of mechanics, repairers, and installers. Improvements in diagnostic technologies and the

growing tendency to replace rather than repair

electronic components have lowered the skill

requirements for many specific diagnostic or

repair tasks (less skill depth). * On the other

hand (as was mentioned earlier), the combination of mechanical, electrical, and electronic

features that characterizes programmable

automation makes skill breadth necessary for

repair and maintenance operations. These operations are likely to involve more, and more

varied, tasks than are encountered in repair

and maintenance of conventional equipment.

In some cases, individuals need broader skills

than before because maintenance of automated equipment has been added to other

maintenance work while the number of personnel has been kept constant. While individuals

may need broader skills, in larger firms repair

and maintenance personnel may be deployed

in teams of persons with different or overlapXFO~ ~X~Ple, DEC has been developing the ‘‘Intelligent

Diagnostic Tool” to enable field service personnel to diagnose

equipment problems described by customers over the phone.

The IDT is based on an expert system. See Martyn Chase,

“DEC Says Artificial Intelligence Enabled It To Save $10 Million, ” American Metal Market/Metalworking News, Apr. 4,

1983.
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 131

Table 24.—Operative and Laborer Employment and Selected Occupations, 1980

(All manufacturing industries, wage and salary workers)

Occupation Number Percent

Operatives ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......8,845,318

Assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...............1,661 ,150

Aircraft structure and surfaces assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25,353

Clock and watch assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,362

Electrical and electronic assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232,694

Electromechanical equipment assemblers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58,174

Instrument makers and assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24,681

Machine assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101,043

All other assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................1,214,843

Bindery operatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77,918

Laundry, drycleaning, and pressing machine operatives . . . . . . . 57,132

Meatcutters and butchers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64,015

Metalworking operatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...........1,470,169

Dip platers, nonelectrolytic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,768

Drill press and boring machine operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124,232

Electroplates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36,013

Furnace chargers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,520

Furnace operators, cupola tenders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,814

Grinding and abrading machine operators, metal. . . . . . . . . . . 128,053

Heaters, metal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,473

Lathe machine operators, metal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155,935

Machine-tool operators, combination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167,942

Machine-tool operators, numerical control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52,627

Machine-tool operators, tool-room . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38,352

Milling and planing machine operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72,061

Pourers, metal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,311

Power brake and bending machine operators, metal . . . . . . . . 39,877

Punch press operators, metal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182,364

Welders and flamecutters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400,629

All other metalworking operatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,198

Mine operatives, n.e.c. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,951

Packing and inspecting operatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587,631

Painters, manufactured articles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117,289

Decorators, hand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,748

Rubbers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,363

Painters, production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106,178

Sawyers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76,728

Sewers and stitchers.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 845,294

Textile operatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378,540

Transportation equipment operatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 711,195

Industrial truck operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269,105

All other operatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........2,788,306

Batch plant operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,369

Boring machine operators, wood . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,184

Coil finishers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,422

Cutters, machine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28,048

Cutters, portable machine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,472

Cutter-finisher operators, rubber goods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,184

Cutting machine operators, food . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,692

Die cutters and clicking machine operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,680

Filers, grinders, buffers, and chippers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115,680

Furnace operators and tenders, except metal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29,378

Mixing operatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,337

Nailing machine operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,352

Oilers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,657

Photographic process workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,439

Power screwdriver operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,515

Punch and stamping press operators, except metal . . . . . . . . 5,284

Riveters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,161

Sandblasters and shotblasters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,440

Sanders, wood. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20,684

43.44

8.16

0.12

0.02

1.14

0.29

0.29

0.50

5,97

0.38

0.28

0,31

7.22

0.06

0.61

0.18

0.03

0.08

0.63

0.03

0.77

0.82

0.26

0.19

0.35

0.08

0.20

0.90

1,97

0.07

0.05

2,89

0.58

0.02

0.03

0.52

0.38

4.15

1.86

3.49

1.32

13.69

0.04

0.02

0.04

0.14

0.08

0.04

0.06

0.10

0.57

0.14

0.24

0.05

0.11

0.06

0.04

0.03

0.07

0.05

0.10
132 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation.’ Employment, Education, and the Workplace

——- -—- —-.——.—— ———

Table 24.—Operative and Laborer Employment and Selected Occupations, 1980

(All manufacturing industries, wage and salary workers) —Continued

Occupation Number Percent

Shaper and router operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,655

Shear and slitter operators, metal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30,380

Shoemaking machine operators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64,568

Winding operatives, n.e.c. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49,157

Wirers, electronic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30,611

Laborers, except farm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................1,576,576

Cannery workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75,066

Conveyor operators and tenders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,469

Furnace operators and heater helpers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,316

Helpers, trades . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,752

Loaders, cars and trucks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,941

Loaders, tank cars and trucks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,579

Off-bearers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,499

Riggers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,211

Setters and drawers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,157

Shakeout workers, foundry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,580

Stock handlers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,208

Order fillers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,208

Timbercutting and logging workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36,104

Work distributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,895

Laborers, except farm, n.e.c. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .1,104,071

0.02

0.15

0.32

0.24

0.15

7.74

0.37

0.15

0.04

0.49

0.03

0.03

0.11

0.08

0.04

0.05

0.51

0.51

0.18

0.08

5.42

n e c = Not elsewhere classified.

SOURCE Bureauof Labor Statistics. “Employment by Industry

publlshed dataon wage and salary employment

ping skills, although this may result from

work rules established by labor contracts as

well as the changing demands of technology.

The potential for long-term growth in absolute numbers of mechanics, repairers, and installers is uncertain. Several factors will limit

that growth. First, where small, stand-alone

systems are used, vendors or existing maintenance personnel are likely to repair the new

equipment. For example, a producer of shoemanufacturing machinery who installed a

single welding robot in an old facility simply

trained its existing electrician to repair the

robot.* Where installations involve a lot of

equipment, especially if integrated, new maintenance personnel may be added. One automobile manufacturer, for example, took on several new repair personnel to service an automated welding system.40

The fact that more hardware maybe used

for a given amount of manufacturing implies

that more maintenance personnel will be

needed, but experience suggests that for each

——

*OTA site visit.

‘iOTA case study.

~d Occupation, 19S0 and projected 1990 Alternatives,” un.

user there is a threshold level of new equipment that must be attained before new personnel are hired. That level varies substantially among companies and industries. Also,

automation of diagnostic and repair procedures reduces the amount of diagnosis and repair work. These developments, and related

trends such as growth in service hot-lines and

equipment communications links, will dampen

the potential growth in maintenance personnel. Finally, computerization generally carries

with it new needs for maintenance of software,

although this work has typically been done by

people classified as “data-processing professionals, rather than production workers.

One development in particular that may

curb employment growth for mechanics, repairers, and installers is equipment and system insurance. Companies may choose to insure against the loss (of equipment and/or

profit) associated with a breakdown as an

alternative to protecting against that loss by

employing a lot of machinists or repairmen.

There is evidence that some companies have

been making such a choice while using conventional equipment; the number of losses re-
—.

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 133

Table 25.—Trade-Sensitive Employment

Net trade-related ‘jo b Change i n

- net trade-related job

Input-Output classa

Industry descriptio n opportunitie s opportunities between 1964 and 1975

1964 1975 Total Direct Indirect

The 20 industries in which job opportunities were most adversely affected-by trade between 1964 and 1975--

1804

5903

3701

3402

6105

5601

1601

3202

3101

2307

5104

3403

5701

1802

2801

4802

1903

4701

2201

3201

Apparel, purchase d

Motor vehicles and part s

Furnaces, steel product s

Non rubber footwear. .,

Motorcycles, bicycles, and part s

Radio and television set s

Broad woven fabric mills

Rubber footwear. ,.

Petroleum refining..................................................

Furniture and fixtures, n e c

Office machines, ne c

Other leather products

Electron tubes

Knit apparel mill s

Plastic materials and resin s

Textile machiner y

Fabricated textiles, n.e.c .,

Machine tools. metal cutting types ., .,

Wood household furnitur e

Tires and inner tubes

-41,569

12,256

10.055

-8,570

-7,150

-5,581

-22,688

-4,601

-2,190

-3,101

-700

-7,337

359

-3,186

9,923

4,325

4,149

9,388

- 9 6

1,722

— 144,932

-63.939

-36,447

-46,315

-29,817

-25,986

-40.815

— 15,292

-12,395

-13,094

-9.235

-15,647

-7,443

-9,946

3,531

— 1,805

— 1,714

3.558

-5,242

-3,357

-103,363

-76.195

-46.502

-37,745

-22,667

— 20,405

-18,127

— 10,691

-10,205

-9,993

-8,535

-8.310

-7.802

-6.760

-6,392

-6,130

-5,863

-5,830

-5.146

-5,079

-87,048

-54,299

-32,825

-36,790

-19,980

-19,098

7.810

-10,377

-9,843

-9,933

-8,329

-7,898

1,022

0

-5,493

-5,519

-1,709

-6.161

1,324

-3,882

The 20 industries in which job opportunities were most favorably affected by trade between 1964 and 1975

6001

6004

5101

2001

4503

4501

5301

2002

6002

2402

4806

4901

5304

5503

5703

5702

2006

4006

5203

5000

Aircraf t

Aircraft equipment, n e c

Computing machine s

Logging

01 I field machiner y

Construct Ion machiner y

Electric measuring instruments .

Sawmills and planing mill s

Aircraft engines and parts

Paper mill s

Special Industrial machine s

Pumps and compressors

Motors and generators

Wiring devices

Electronic components .,

Semiconductors

Veneer and plywoo d

Fabricated plate wor k

Refrigerator machines............... .

Machine shop products ., —

22,633

33,246

16,183

-17.967

6,410

30,094

4.897

-31,566

15.769

-23,444

11,738

7,711

9,244

4,351

15,371

4.984

-13.734

6,664

5,932

12,128

76.683

78,542

54,666

8,278

26,915

47,720

17,671

— 19,372

26,201

— 13,154

21,392

17,006

16.473

11,458

21,990

11,182

-7,669

11,926

11,120

17,204

54,050

45,296

38,483

26,245

20,505

17,626

12.774

12,194

10.432

10,290

9.654

9,295

7.229

7,107

6.619

6,198

6,065

5,262

5,188

5,076

48.104

19,507

32.544

13,785

19,313

16,267

11,671

10,021

3.812

9.518

9.134

7,598

5,267

4.440

5,138

4,961

4.806

4,401

6,154

1,612

— 16,315

-21,896

— 13,677

-957

-2,687

— 1,307

-25.937

-314

-362

- 6 6

-206

— 412

-8>824

-6.760

-899

-611

-4,154

331

-6,470

-1.197

6,036

25,789

5,939

12,460

1,192

1,359

1,103

2,173

6.618

772

520

1,697

1,962

2,667

1,481

1.237

1,259

861

-966

3,464

aThe concordance between I-o (Input-outpu t table) classifications and standard Industrial classifications IS publlshed In survey of Curmf Business Februav 1974

r +, f I J t ,, I .l*J A t{ rw I i~s f +(I

S(-IU F<( [ [1 ,,,,; l ,r , F S, t,, ,, ; flu I rTl; , rt< inrj Dc,rnest II Emr(oy m~nt Idenl If) Ing Affected I ndu strles kfor)lh/} L db.lr Rek IPA AIq~I st 1962

corded by insurers that are attributed to inadequate maintenance is growing. Historically, U.S. casualty and property insurers have

refused to insure computers and computerized

equipment. However, Kemper has recently decided to cover such equipment under its boiler

and machinery program, and other insurance

companies are expected to follow suit.47 Mean-

————

‘iBob Nielsen, Kemper Insurance, personal communication,

November 1983.

while, the American press has treated the offering of “robot insurance” in Japan as an

oddity.

OTHER CATEGORIES

The remaining categories of production and

related workers—metalworking and other craftworkers, operatives, and laborers—are to varying degrees likely to experience displacement

due to programmable automation, other
Table 26.—Employment of Mechanics and Related Personnel, 1980

Metalworking Office computing Electrical

—

Electronic

All machinery and and accounting industrial components and Motor vehicles Aircraft

manufacturing equipment machines apparatus accessories and equipment and parts

MRla and construction craftworkers . . . . 991,615 4.90/. 7,292 2.00/0 19,097 4.40/0 8,666 3.6°/0 14,976 2.70/o 44,497 5.8% 40,190 6.1%

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment by Industry and Occupation, 1980 and Projected 1990,” unpublished data on wage and salary employment

I

I
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 135

-— ———

things being equal. This group, which dominates manufacturing employment, numbered

over 12 million in 1980.

There are no simple rules about how automation displaces production workers; however,

it is clear that as long as production volume

is constant and automation improves productivity (or as long as volume grows significantly

less than productivity), it will displace production jobs. By design, such innovations as automated controls, the use of robots and other

manipulators to load and unload machines,

flexible fixtures (which are replaced or adjusted less often than conventional ones), the

linking of automated production and materials handling equipment into systems, and the

use of computers to regulate the flow of materials and work-in-process will: 1) reduce the

amount and type of human activity required

in any given operation, and 2) decrease the

number of workers required to perform a given

amount of work. Robots, for example, are currently not faster than people for most applications, but they may be more consistent, performing with fewer errors over time and taking less time to achieve a given level of quality.

In practice, the potential for displacement

will vary enormously by application and facility. For some applications, one “operator” may

be needed at one machine; for others, one person may tend several machines. In many

cases, the linking of activities by automated

materials handling (robotic or other) will

reduce the labor component for setup; both

trends will increase the machine-to-person

ratio.

25-452 0 -

Throughout this decade, technological limitations (particularly in the areas of sensors

and interfaces) are likely to restrict the tasks

in which PA may be used, and economic considerations will continue to moderate the rate

of diffusion and the extent to which products

and processes are redesigned. Looking toward

the future, no case-by-case evaluation of occupations can convey the potential for displacement implied by the integration of manufacturing equipment and systems because it

cannot capture all of the indirect impacts on

staffing. Experience with highly integrated

systems is quite limited, and it shows that initial applications using current technology require more labor than had been anticipated.

The employment effects of highly integrated

systems are not likely to be significant until

at least the 1990’s, and even then are likely

to remain concentrated in the machinery and

transportation equipment industries.

The problems in gauging displacement from

PA overall can be illustrated by examining the

cases of welders and flamecutters, painters,

and machinists. Welders and flamecutters

numbered 400,629 (1.97 percent of manufacturing employment) in 1980, and production

painters numbered 106,178 (0.52 percent).

Table 27 shows their distribution across selected metalworking industries. While automatic welding machines have been available for

some time, interest in using robots for welding

and spray painting was a major factor in the

commercialization of robot technology. A principal motivation for these robot applications,

in addition to the prospect of lower labor costs,

Table 27.—Distribution of Flamecutters, Welders, and Production Painters

in the Metalworking Industries, 1980

Welders and

flamecutters Production painters

Number Percent Number Percent

All manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400,629 2.0 ”/0 106,178 0.50/0

Metalworking machinery and equipment . . 6,562 1.8 1,284 0.4

Office, computing, and accounting machines 2,094 0.5 1,172 0.3

Electrical industrial apparatus . . . . . . . . . . . 3,872 1.6 1,195 0.5

Electronic components and accessories . . 2,405 0.4 1,229 0.2

Motor vehicles and equipment . . . . . . . . . . . 41,159 5.3 13,556 1.8

Aircraft and parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,193 0.9 4,295 0.7

NOTE Percentages have been rounded.

SOURCE Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment by Industry and Occupation, 19M and Projected 1990, ” unpublished data

on wage and salary employment

84 - 10 : QL 3
136 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— —.— ——

was the elimination of particularly unpleasant

and hazardous work.

It is easier to gauge displacement potential

for these occupations than for others because

the source of displacement appears limited to

a single automation technology, robots. However, all welders and production painters are

not alike. Those whose work is most monotonous and unpleasant are most likely to be displaced, other things being equal; that category

includes spot welders and spray painters in the

auto industry. By contrast, it is less applicable

to welders in the aircraft industry, who are

more likely to do arc welding. Although sensor and machine vision advances will make arc

welding increasingly susceptible to automation during this decade, it is not clear whether

automated welding will ever be of sufficiently high quality to displace large proportions

of these workers. Also, because much arc welding is not done in a mass-production context

(like automotive spot welding), human performance may be more economical in many

cases.

Even with automation of welding and painting, human input is still required for setup,

supervision, inspection, adjustment, and/or retouching, because of the shortcomings of auto

mated equipment. Painting is easier to automate than welding because it is easier to control the quality of the work. Improvement in

automated inspection systems is likely to reduce, but not eliminate, the labor component

needed for supervision, inspection, adjustment

—and therefore retouching-by the 1990’s.

The Upjohn Institute robotics study concluded that 15 to 20 percent of welding jobs

and 27 to 37 percent of painting jobs in the

auto industry (3 to 6 percent and 7 to 12 percent, respectively, for jobs in all other manufacturing industries) could be displaced by

robots by 1990; Ayres and Miller estimated

that between about 93,000 and 169,000 welders and between about 35,000 and 52,000

painters could eventually be displaced by robots, depending on the level of sophistication.48

4eHunt and Hunt, op. cit.; and Robert U. Ayres and Steven

Miller, “Robotics, CAM, and Industrial Productivity, ” Nati”onaJ Productivity Review, winter 1981-1982.

The displacement potential for machinists

is much less clear-cut. There were 197,849

machinists (0.97 percent of manufacturing)

employed in manufacturing in 1980, according

to OES. BLS recently addressed the question

of machinist employment, drawing on Current

Population Survey (CPS) as the richest data

source for this purpose.49 According to the

CPS, which also provides detailed data on

other skilled and operative machining occupations, there were 567,000 machinists in 1980;

there were 834,000 total skilled machine workers, including machinists, job and die setters,

and tool and die makers.

While NC machining can do some tasks that

are beyond the capabilities of people working

with conventional machine tools, a principal

motivation in the development and spread of

NC equipment has been alleged shortages of

machinists, who are highly skilled, well-paid

craftsmen. Between 1972 and 1980, CPS data

show that machinist employment rose by

190,000, while employment in other skilled

machining occupations fell. For purposes of

comparison with other occupational statistics

presented in this chapter, table 28 presents

machinist employment levels in several metalworking industries according to OES data.

The proportion (and number) of skilled machinists is likely to fall in the long term because of growing use of NC technology, especially among smaller firms, and because of constraints on supply. This will happen because

in some cases NC allows less skilled people to

substitute for skilled journeyman machinists

in operating and/or programing machine tools.

One major response from management to

the skills shortage has been to de-skill the

work the journeyman once handled himself.

In effect, one job is broken down into its various elements and then distributed among

workers who are able to learn these smaller

tasks.5O

Meanwhile, entry into skilled machinist jobs

is limited by the need for a lengthy skillacquisition process (apprenticeships, for exam-

‘

eNeal H. Rosenthal, “Shortages of Machinists: An Evaluation of the Information, ” Monthly Labor Review, July 1982.

‘“Daniel D. Cook and John S. McClenahen, “Skilled Worker

Nears Extinction, ” Industry Week, Aug. 29, 1977.
.— — --

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 137

———— —.———————

Table 28.—Machinist Employment, 1980

Machine toolsetters, –

Machinists metalworking Tool and die makers

.— — ..—

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

All manufacturing ., . . . . ... . . . . . . 197,849 - 1,0

———.—

55,312 0.3 -

158,586 0.8

Metalworking machinery and equipment ... 19,181 5.2 3,112 0.8 42,356 11.4

Office, computing, and accounting machines 1,987 0.5 1,063 0.3 1,849 0.4

Electrical industrial apparatus . . . . . . . . . . . 2,701 1.1 1,630 0.7 2,638 1.1

Electronic components and accessories . 4,108 0.7 708 0.1 3,599 0.6

Motor vehicles and accessories ... . . . . . . 2,468 0,3 9,993 1.3 11,811 1.5

Aircraft and parts. ., . . . . . . . ... ... 7,251 1.1 4,738 0.7 6,214 1.0

NOTE Percentages have been rounded –

—— — ———

SOURCE Bureau of Labor Statjstlcs Employment by Industry and Occupation, 1980 and Pro)ected 1990, ” unpublished data on wage and salary employment

pie, usually last 4 years). * Consequently, although the need for highly trained machinists

varies among firms and industries, it is likely

that the overall level of metalworking skills

will drop because machinists are among the

most skilled of metalworking craftsmen.

At least in the short term, however, increases in defense expenditures will certainly

lead to shortages of machinists-which will in

turn spur the introduction of NC. A recent

study performed by Data Resources, Inc., for

the U.S. Department of Defense, forecasts

shortages of machinists and other metalworking personnel by 1987. It concludes that defense expenditures will account for almost 60

percent of the growth in machinist demand between 1981 and 1987 (compared to a defense

share of 120 percent for assembler-demand

growth and 87 percent of metalworking operative demand growth) .51 While that study does

not appear to account for metalworking technology changes, and may therefore overstate

the potential for shortages, it underscores the

importance of production volume as a major

influence in employment opportunities. One

xsu~V~Y~ Show that indU9try efforts to increase machinist

supply have been limited. According to one: “In some areas,

it apparently is not a scarcity of journeymen but the price tag

they bear—and industry’s willingness to meet it—which effectively results in a skills shortage. ” See Daniel D. Cook and John

S. McClenahen, “Skilled Worker Nears Extinction. ” Industry

U’eek, .Aug. 29, 1977, and “Attitudes Toward the Skilled

Trades: Employment Issues in the Precision Metalworking Industry, report of a survey conducted for Sentry Insurance on

behalf of the Task Force on the Skilled Trades Shortage by

Louis Harris and Associates, Inc., November 1982.

“Ralph M. Doggett, “Regional Forecasts of Industrial Base

Manpower Demand, 1981 to 1987, ” prepared for the Office of

the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering

by Data Resources, Inc., March 1983.

reason behind the belief in a machinist shortage is the cyclical nature of machinist demand;

the unevenness in metalworking product demand, especially that which is associated with

defense spending, tends to place employers in

a hiring position when demand surges.

Two groups of relatively low-skilled production workers, materials handlers and assemblers, may be quite vulnerable to displacement

in the long run. Various forms of automated

materials handling, robots, and automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS) can substitute for such materials handlers as conveyor

operators; crane, derrick, and hoist operators;

and industrial truck operators. Manufacturing

employment in these categories totaled 370,000

in 1980. For example, central control computers for automatic guided vehicle systems can

monitor location, load, and obstacles, and

issue commands to vehicles in response to

problems. PA can also replace people who

manually load, unload, and transfer materials.

For example, in plastics processing, robots

perform such tasks as lifting, tilting, twisting,

positioning, aligning, and transferring items;

loading and unloading machines; and handling and orienting finished parts. Materials

handling employment will also be affected by

procedural changes, such as adoption of “justin-time’ delivery of supplies; the use of manufacturing resources planning (MRP) and

other systems to rationalize the flow and use

of materials; and other measures to reduce

inventories.

The biggest changes in materials handler

employment, at least in the near term, will

come in large establishments. Large firms and
138 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—— -— —..—— —.. —.. ..——.—

Photo credit’ Cincinnati Milacron, Inc.

Automated materials handling, storage, and retrieval,

with automated guided vehicles

plants are more able and likely to install

AS/RS, can most easily implement MRP, and

are more likely to link automated materials

handling to production activities.* Materials

handling robot applications are more practical

for a wide range of firm sizes and industries,

but are relatively limited at present (see ch.

3). Also, even where production is highly automated, labor is used for the initial input

and/or final removal of materials from the system or the transfer from one stage to another.

In contemplating flexible manufacturing systems, for example, it can be misleading to look

only at the automated operations instead of

the entire production process.

Assemblers perform tasks that range from

the insertion of electronic components into cir-

*one gauge of po~nti~ changes in materials h~dling (especially for larger facilities) is the experience of food

warehousers, many of which have implemented ASIRS. For example, B. Green & Co., a Baltimore full-line food wholesaler,

hoped to triple its business by opening a new $22 million semiautomated warehouse and consolidating activities presently

conducted at several locations. The company expected to lay

off about 60 workers, most of them part-time. See Joyce Price,

“60 Workers Lose Out to Automation, ” The News Amen-can,

March 1983.

cuit boards to building aircraft. In 1980, there

were 1,661,150 (8.16 percent of manufacturing) assemblers in manufacturing. Table 29

shows their distribution across selected metalworking industries. The degree of complexity and margin for error of specific assembly

tasks govern their ease of automation. Sensor

and machine vision technologies can improve

the precision and consistency of automated assembly equipment, and assembly applications

of robots are expected to grow by the end of

this decade. For example, the Upjohn Institute estimated that robots could displace 1 to

3 percent of assemblers by 1990 (including 5

to 10 percent of auto-industry assemblers);

Ayres and Miller estimated that robots could

ultimately displace between about 132,000 and

396,000 assemblers, depending on technological sophistication, in metalworking industries.52

The vulnerability of assemblers to displacement varies substantially by product type. For

example, with miniaturization many electronics products cannot be assembled (or inspected) adequately by people. Also, many

electronics products must be assembled in

sterile environments where managers aim to

minimize all sources of contaminants, including those naturally conveyed by people. In

these cases, special equipment, not necessarily

programmable, may be designed to do assembly and inspection work. Improvements in

‘*Hunt and Hunt, op. cit.; and Ayres and Miller, op. cit.

Table 29.-Employment of Assemblers in Selected

Manufacturing Industries, 1980

Number Percent

All industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,661,201 1.8%

All manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,661,150 8.2

Metalworking machinery and

equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24,779 6.7

Office, computing, and accounting

machines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85,714 19.9

Electrical industrial apparatus . . . . . 50,987 21.4

Electronic components and

accessories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169,759 30.4

Motor vehicles and equipment . . . . . 175,922 22.7

Aircraft and parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64,126 9.8

NOTE: Percentages have been rounded.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment by Industry and Occupation,

1980 and Projected 1990, ” unpublished data on wage and salary

employment
——~.~

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 139
140 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

product design, often associated with the

adoption of PA, will also reduce the amount

of (or at least simplify) assembly work needed

in manufacturing. For example, GE invested

$38 million in a highly automated dishwasher

factory and redesigned the products, reducing

the number of different parts handled from

4,000 to 800.59

Note that inspectors may be affected by similar developments as assemblers, including improvements in sensor technology. In 1980

there were 433,530 manufacturing inspectors

(2.13 percent of manufacturing). Table 30

shows the distribution of inspectors in selected

metalworking industries. Many observers believe that the role and number of inspectors

and other quality-control personnel will diminish as companies move from end-of-the-line

quality-control inspection to in-line quality

assurance. This will often happen as a consequence or corollary of automating. At least one

company, for example, offers statistical process-control software in conjunction with its

line of robots. General Motors, for example,

expects that a combination of statistical process control, just-in-time supply scheduling,

and other measures will substantially reduce

the amount of receiving work in its new

“Buick City” complex.54

‘

gBruce Vernyi, “Automated Dishwasher Plant Opens, ”

American Metal Market/Metalworking News, May 2, 1983.

“AI Wrigley, “GM Awards Buick City Contract to Progressive, ” American Metal/Metalworh”ng News, Aug. 15, 1983.

Table 30.–Employment of Inspectors, 1980

Number Percent

All industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471,984

All manufacturing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 433,530

Metalworking machinery and

equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,781

Office, computing, and accounting

machinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,991

Electrical industrial apparatus . . . 6,744

Electronic components and

accessories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,072

Motor vehicles and equipment . . . . . 38,769

Aircraft and parts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28,914

0.50/0

2.1

1.6

3.0

2.8

4,0

5.0

4.4

NOTE” Percentages have been rounded

SOURCE Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Employment by Industry and Occupation,

1980 and Projected 1990, ” unpublished data on wage and salary

employment

Finally, some new production jobs may

emerge as an indirect result of changes in production processes and/or organizational procedures associated with PA. For example, when

an auto manufacturer introduced a multi-robot

spot-welding system, it began to produce

major auto-body parts with corresponding

notches and tabs which are connected prior to

automated welding by an individual on the

line; this new job is called “toy-tabbing.” At

an aircraft manufacturer, the introduction of

an automated monitoring system for an automated machine shop was accompanied by the

introduction of relief operators, a group of individuals who substitute temporarily for fulltime staff.55 In some cases, these new jobs may

be transient, reflecting the requirements of a

given level of automation, while in other cases

they may be long-term, reflecting enduring

changes in production processes. (Transient

skill requirements are discussed more fully in

a later section of the chapter. ) In any event,

these are jobs that are most likely to be filled

through the transfer and retraining of existing

personnel. The creation of new jobs is perhaps

the hardest employment impact to forecast.

Clerical Workers

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

Clerical workers in manufacturing industries

perform a variety of functions in both office

and plant settings. Across manufacturing industries, 2,322,400 (11.5 percent) were employed in clerical positions in 1980; 2,215,334

(11.8 percent) were so employed in 1982, when

economy-wide clerical employment was over

18.7 million (20 percent of total employment).

Now, manufacturing technologies will affect

both office and plant clerical workers, and the

growing use of office automation will reinforce

the displacing effects of PA in manufacturing.

Table 31 shows the distribution of potentially vulnerable office and plant clerical occupations in selected metalworking industries.

Past growth in clerical employment in manufacturing, as in the rest of the economy, has

reflected a substantial growth in company de-

‘bOTA case studies,
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 141

— —
742 Ž Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

——.-———— —— .-- ——.— . . — — — . — —

mand for information collection and processing, growth that has been facilitated by early

uses of computers and office automation. Note

that the continued presence of large numbers

of keypunch operators attests to the slowness

with which companies make major changes in

data-handling and data-processing systems,

especially those that represent major investments in hardware.

PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS

Programmable automation will affect clerical employment by computerizing the “paper

trail” that follows materials and work-inprocess through production. This is a direct

outcome of the data-aggregating function of

PA systems, which relate all types of tasks,

from design through shipment, to a manufacturing database. Indeed, the Air Force ICAM

program targets such functions as planning,

scheduling, and other indirect or nonproduction

functions, which underlie much production

clerk employment, as principal candidates for

automation. The development and storage of

product plans through computer-aided design,

the direct linkage of CAD to production equipment, and the computerization of planning,

ordering, purchasing, billing, and inventory

control will all act to reduce the demand for

clerical services and personnel.

Clerical employment is most likely to

change, at least in the near term, among larger

firms because they are quicker to adopt computerized inventory and planning systems,

and because they have greater informationflow needs and problems. For example, the Litton Office Product Center installed an automated system for order entry, inventory

checking, receivable monitoring, and billing

which cut time for these activities by 75 percent. 56 Larger firms are also more likely to

adopt sophisticated automated materials handling systems and AS/RS, which is most economical in larger installations. Finally, reductions in company work forces as well as automated recordkeeping may affect personnel and

—

5’ Paul Gillin, “Last Piece of Automation Puzzle Fits for

Firm, ” Computerworld, Dec. 5, 1983.

payroll clerk employment. Of all occupational

groups, production clerks, together with such

other intermediaries as stockchasers and expediters, rank among the most likely to diminish in size with extensive automation and computer-integration.

Managers

Managers plan, organize, direct, and control

various functions within firms. They may also

do work similar to that of their subordinates.

CURRENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS

In 1980, there were 1,328,160 managers and

officers across the manufacturing sector, accounting for 6.58 percent of manufacturing

employment. In 1982, there were 1,260,062

(6.7 percent). Nationally, employment of managerial personnel has been growing in all economic sectors, even during the recent recessions.* There were about 7.7 million managers,

officials, and proprietors in 1982 nationwide.

Lower level managers include “nonworking”

or “blue collar” supervisors and clerical supervisors, who are counted with production and

clerical workers, respectively. There were

705,307 (3.46 percent) blue collar supervisors

and 66,841 (0.33 percent) clerical supervisors

in manufacturing in 1980. Table 32 shows the

distribution of managerial and supervisory

personnel in the machinery and transportation

equipment industries.

PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS

Programm able automation will alter the mix

and number of managerial personnel. It will

probably support growth in upper management ranks, for three reasons. First, the integration of databases and anticipated shifts

in decisionmaking toward higher staff levels

will increase the role of upper management in

the production process. The push for so-called

“top down control, ” facilitated by computerization, inherently increases the role of upper

*There were nearly 7 percent more managers and administrators in December 1982 than in January 1980, while overall

employment fell 1 percent; however, unemployment for managers also grew in that period. See Karen W. Arenson, “Manage

ment’s Ranks Grow, ” The New York Times, Apr. 14, 1983.
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 143

.— . —— ———— —. . —— —

Table 32.—Employment of Managerial and Supervisory Personnel, 1980

Managers, Nonworking

officials, & blue-collar Clerical

proprietors supervisors supervisors

“Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

All industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . 7,557,359 8.1 1,273,191 1.4 428,087 0.5

All manufacturing . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . 1,195,743 5.9 705,307 3.5 66,841 0.3

Metalworking machinery and equipment . 28,190 7,6 10,119 2.7 862 0.2

Office, computing, and accounting machines 40,583 9.4 8,112 1.9 2,473 0.6

Electrical industrial apparatus ... . . . . . . . 12,632 5.3 8,343 3.5 1,009 0.4

Electronic components and accessories . . 291954 5.4 15,928 2.9 1,936 0.4

Motor vehicles and equipment ... . . . . 25,424 3.3 30,575 4.0 1,110 0.1

Aircraft and parts . . . . ... ... . . . . 48,746 7.4 24,391 3.7 1,914 0.3

NOTE Percentages have been rounded

SOURCE Bureau of Labor Stat(stfcs, Employment by Industry and Occupation, 1980 and Projected 19!30 “ unpublished data on wage and salary employment

management. Second, insofar as batch production, product variation, and competition grow,

more managerial input will be required for

product planning and market analysis. Growth

in PA products and markets is itself a source

of growth in managerial employment; many

want-ads for managers refer to planned or existing new ventures, and they often refer to

marketing responsibilities. Third, change in

production technologies may create new operational units within firms, and associated needs

for planning and management. Automation

generally entails new work in database management, software quality assurance, and

training-activities which may be undertaken

by special staffs and managers.

Nevertheless, it is not clear how much new

managerial employment the support needs of

manufacturing automation will generate, especially where companies already have dataprocessing staffs. Also, more advanced systems that do not require mastery of special

languages or formats, that include applications generators, or that entail distributed

data processing lower the requirement for special, in-house personnel.

By contrast, the automation of data collection and transfer activities (e.g., through monitoring operation and performance characteristics of machines, and developing and transmitting machine operating instructions from

CAD systems) is expected to lower the demand for lower and middle managers .57 Some

5’Dav~d Myers, “ACM Told OA May Squeeze Middle Managers Out of Jobs, ” Computerworki, Oct. 31, 1983.

observers predict that this will lead to an hourglass personnel structure among firms. In

some cases, automation may bring about an

upgrading of a management position. For example, added attention to materials requirements, production planning, and scheduling

may make certain materials and inventory

management activities into “white collar”

functions. Where a few employees oversee a

larger amount of equipment, fewer first-line

supervisors may be needed. Indeed, with integrated systems, it is likely that a hybrid

position containing attributes of formerly separate supervisory and subordinate operator

jobs may emerge.

Other changes in the nature of managerial

work are possible. A study evaluating prospects for computer operations managers generally suggested growing needs for capacity

planning, performance monitoring, technical

support, security management, and facilities

management .58 Also, a study of manufacturing firms concluded that:

The new technology substantially changed

the jobs of supervisors and middle-management, shifting the focus from watchdog and

disciplinarian to planning, training, and

communicating. 59

Industry representatives frequently point to

resistance among lower and middle manage-

— .——

‘

m

’’ Higher Skills Needed: Study, ” Computerworld, Apr. 18,

1983.

‘gWickam Skinner, “Wanted: Managers for the Factory of the

Future, ” The Annals of the American Academy of Poh”tical and

Social Science, vol. 470, November 1983.
144 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

ment as a principal obstacle to the spread of

automation. Greater recognition of the potential of these technologies to displace such personnel may add to such problems.

Sales/Service

Sales and technical service personnel consult

with potential and actual customers, conduct

presentations and demonstrations, provide

training, and install products. In 1980 there

were 437,497 (z. 15 percent) sales workers employed in manufacturing. In 1982, there were

413,657 (2.2 percent). These included sales representatives or agents and sales clerks. Also

in 1980, there were 5,165 (0.03 percent) adult

education teachers employed in manufacturing industries. Finally, technical writers (in unknown number) comprise a related category.

Producers of PA, as well as independent consulting or service firms, are likely to demonstrate a growing need for technical sales and

service or support personnel to serve their

growing markets. On the other hand, automated management and office systems are

likely to dampen demand for sales clerks.

Although industry representatives have

complained of shortages of field-service personnel and trainers, it is difficult to judge the

numbers of such people, because in many cases

they wear several hats. Also, for products that

are new and continually developing, it is to be

expected that people with relevant expertise

may be hard to find. For smaller, innovative

firms, in particular, technology sales and support personnel tend to be engineers and other

professionals. However, want-ads suggest that

even large vendors of programmable automation use engineers-” applications engineers’

–for marketing and pre- and post-sale support

services. This situation reflects not only the

technology-intensive nature of PA products

but also the fact that experienced engineers

commonly move into sales, management, and

other nonproduction positions. Such individuals are likely to be counted as engineers in

occupational statistics.

Want-ads suggest that PA vendors, like

other manufacturers of technical products,

prefer sales representatives with technical college degrees, but will consider others with relevant experience. Similar preferences may exist for trainers. Predictably, selection criteria

for sales managers also emphasize relevant experience. Relevant experience may include a

background in sales or use of computer and

business systems, or in manufacturing or PA

sales.

Shift in Skills and Occupational Mix

As revealed by the preceding discussion of

skill requirements and occupational trends,

the proportions of skills and occupations found

in manufacturing will shift substantially because of programmable automation. In fact,

to date, this impact has been more striking

than any change in the level of employment.

While it is too soon to forecast precise numerical changes, the directions of change are clear.

In some cases, the effect will be to reinforce

the long-term shift toward white-collar employment; in other cases—notably, the negative effect on clerical opportunities-the longterm effect will differ from past shifts. This

section describes the overall pattern of change

in occupational mix and discusses the income

implications of such change.

Shift Toward White Collar/

Salaried Employment

The broad—and long-term—tendencies are

for

●

employment opportunities of:

engineers and computer scientists; technicians; and mechanics, repairers, and installers, on the whole, to rise-although

specific occupations (e.g., drafters) will

face diminishing opportunities;
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment . 145

. ——

●

●

●

craftworkers (excluding mechanics), operatives, and laborers—especially the least

skilled doing the most routine work—to

fall;

plant and perhaps other clerical personnel to fall; and

managers and technical sales and service

personnel to rise, although lower and middle management opportunities among

users may fall.

Thus, a shift toward nonproduction or “whitecollar” employment appears evident. Table 33

lists key occupations, 1980 employment levels, and the directions of potential change. *

Demonstrated Impact of

Individual Technologies

Studies of the impacts of single automation

technologies provide detailed evidence in support of a relative shift toward white-collar

employment. For example, the Upjohn Institute forecast displacement, by 1990, of

100,000 to 200,000 production worker jobs due

to robots alone, compared with creation of

10,000 to 20,000 jobs for maintaining robots

and under 11,000 for robot applications engineering. Ayres and Miller of Carnegie-Mellon

University forecast the potential displacement

of 1 million to 4 million production worker jobs

by robots, over a period of at least 20 years’”

‘* Howe~,er~changes in the mix of occupations do not IWarantee a rise in white-collar employment in alI cases.

Table 33.— 1980 Employment for

*“Hunt and Hunt, op. cit.; and Robert U. Ayres and Steven

M. Miller, “Robotics and Conservation of Human Resources, ”

Technology in Society, vol. 9, 1982.

All Manufacturing Industries,

Selected PA-Sensitive Occupations -

——

Long-term direct ion--

Number Percent of change

Engineers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 579,677

Electrical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173,647

Industrial . . . . . . . . . ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . 71,442

Mechanical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122,328

Engineering and science technicians ... . . . 439,852

Drafters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116,423

NC tool programmers, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,371

Computer programmers . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58,622

Computer systems analysts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42,404

Adult education teachers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,165

Managers, officials, and proprietors. . . . . . . 1,195,743

Clerical workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . 2,297,379

Production clerks ... ... ... . . . . . . . . 139,947

Craft and related workers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,768,395

Electricians . . . . . ... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126,001

Maintenance mechanics and repairers . . . 391,524

Machinists, tool and die makers . . . . . . . . . . 356,435

Inspectors and testers . . . . . ... . . . . . . . 538,275

Operatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,845,318

Assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,661,150

Metalworking operatives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,470,169

Welders and flamecutters . . . . . . . . . . . . . 400,629

Production painters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106,178

Industrial truck operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269,105

Nonfarm laborers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,576,576

Helpers, trades. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100,752

Stockhandlers, order fillers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104,208

Work distributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,895

Conveyor operators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,469

2.85

0.85

0.35

0.60

2.16

0.57

0.05

0.29

0.21

0.03

5.87

11.28

0.69

18.51

0.62

1,92

1.75

2.64

43.44

8.16

7.22

1.97

0.52

1.32

7.74

0.49

0.51

0.08

0.15

+

+

+

+

+

—

—

+

+

?

—

+

+

—

—

—

—

Note Data refer only to wage and salary workers

SOURCE Bureau of Labor Statlstlcs, “Employment by Industry and Occupation, 1960 and Projected 1990 Alternatives. ” un

publlshed data
146 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace ———

(see table 34). And a German study found that

when NC machine tools were introduced, the

least skilled personnel (machine operators)

were most likely to be laid off, while higher

skilled programmers, toolsetters, and mechanics

were likely to be retained, and even more

brought into the firm.6l

A study of the effects of advanced telephone

switching technologies showed that at Bell

Canada, despite growth in output, technology

limited growth in total man-hours of labor per

year between 1952 and 1972 while producing

large shifts in the occupational mix. The person-hour share of the least skilled category,

operators, fell by over 20 percent while the

shares of plant craftsmen and clerical personnel each rose by around 5 percent, and the

“whitecollar worker” share, least affected by

technology change, rose by over 9 percent. The

authors of that study concluded that new

telecommunications technology outweighed

change in labor costs as the cause of employment shifts, having the greatest effect on employment of the least skilled (and least expensive) workers. 62 The pattern of large decline

for the least skilled “production” workers and

small increases among other categories is likely to occur with the introduction of programmable automation in manufacturing.

Finally, similar trends emerge from a survey

of workers in the Japanese electrical machine

industry. It was reported that, when microelectronics was introduced into products or

production processes, employment of “permanent workers” in machining, assembly, inspection, and quality control was likely to fall,

——

‘

iWerner Dostal and Klaus Kostner, “Changes in Employment With the Use of Numerically Controlled Machine Tools’

(Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung),

1982.

%ee Michael Denny and Melvyn Fuss, “The Effects of Factor Prices and Technological Changes on the Occupational Demand for Labor: Evidence From Canadian Telecommunications, ” The Journal of Human Resources, vol. 17, No. 2, 1983.

The authors note that, “The force of automation can be seen

from the fact that had technical change not occurred, the demand for operators would have increased over the 1952-72 period by 4 percent per annum rather than declining by 3 percent per annum. Similarly, zero output growth would have

meant that the decline in operator demand would have increased

to 7 percent per annum” (p. 175).

while employment of production engineers was

likely to rise or remain constant.63

Overall Effects

Occupational demand shifts stimulated by

PA reinforce a long-term growth in the proportion of nonproduction workers employed in

manufacturing industries. For example, between 1945 and 1979, the nonproduction worker proportion in the nonelectrical machinery

industry rose from 24.2 to 34.4 percent. By

comparison, the proportion for the highly

automated chemicals and allied products industry rose from 22.5 to 42.8 percent in the

same period. The trends within manufacturing are paralleled by trends within the economy as a whole; employment in craft, operative,

and laborer positions overall is now about onethird of total employ ment.64 The broad occupational shift reflects both technology change

and the growth in nonmanufacturing employment: In 1940, there were 300 manufacturing

jobs per 100 service industry jobs; in 1980

there were 113.65

Studies of the effects of microelectronics

(and telecommunications) technologies on

other economies show similar tendencies. For

example, an OECD study drawing on research

in several countries identified the following

broad trends:

●

●

●

within manufacturing industries, a decline in the proportion of production workers engaged in low-skill, rote activities

such as assembly;

within services, a decline in the proportion of more routine information-handling

occupations (e.g., low-skilled clerical);

within all sectors, a decline in the proportion of lower managerial and supervisory

occupations, with remaining personnel

63Denki Roren, “Surveys on the Impacts of Micr~Electronics

and Our Policies Towards Technological Innovation, ’ paper pre

sented at the 4th IMF World Conference for the Electrical and

Electronics Industries, Oct. 3-5, 1983.

“U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, May 1983, p. 179.

‘b’’Jobs in Nation’s Service Industries Continue Rise in Recession: Set New Record, Top Manufacturing Total for First Time, ”

News, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics—

Middle Atlantic Region, Dec. 8, 1982.
—

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment . 1 4 7

Table 34.—Carnegie-Mellon University Study Estimates

. — —

Potential for robotizationa

Level I robot

Range

percent

25-50

5-35

Level II Operatives b Potential displacement

Average

percent

30

20

10

18

18

15

20

3

10

18

20

24

15

15

15

20

20

20

15

15

15

20

20

10

5

40

20

30

10

10

20

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

16

44

10

35

10

8

9

. Sector

34-37

Sector Sector 34-37

33-38 I II

113,210 31,215 ‘- 68,933

103,430 15,472 27,076

11,670 1,107 5,535

Sector 33-38

I II

33.963 73,587

2,086 36,201

1,167 5,835

19,742 54,840

25,481 70,780

23,133 46,266

9,004 22,060

1,085 18,080

5,149 25,745

11,381 31,615

3,036 7,590

135,227 392,599

Range

percent

60-75

5-75

20-100

40-60

5-60

30-90

4-60

40-60

15-50

60-80

1o-1oo

10-20

50-100

5-60

5-90

5-60

20-65

2-70

50-100

10-30

1o-1oo

5-30

10-50

Average

percent

.——

65

35

50

50

50

30

49

50

50

50

50

40

70

70

70

70

70

70

70

70

30

70

70

30

10

77

55

100

30

30

50

100

46

50

35

50

25

50

41

66

24

35

50

12

28

Drill press/boring machin e

Filer, grinder, buffer .,

Gearcutting, grinding, shaping.

Grinding/abrading machine

operator . .

Lathe/turning machine operator

Machine tool operator.

combinatio n

Machine tool operator, NC

Machine tool operator, toolroom

Machine tool operator, setter

Milling/planing machine operator

Sawyer, metal .,

Subtotal, metalcutting machines

Coil winding .,

Drop hammer operator . ,

Forging press operato r

Forging/straightening roll

operato r

—-.—.

104,050

77,360

11,070

10-20

10-20

97,090

130,260

109,680 17,476 48,545

141,560 23,447 65,130

10-30

10-90

1-5

142,750

41,900

33,410

47,260

58,900

10,660

754,710

154,220 21,413 42,825

45,020 8,380 20,531

36,160 1,002 16,705

51,490 4,726 23,630

63,230 10,602 29,450

15,180 2,132 5,330

844,850 136,972 353,690

10-20

1540 26,570

2,990

6,500

33,550

2,950

7,190

6,377

449

975

10,628

2,093

4,550

8,052

449

1,079

426

1,016

7,004

846

25,757

2,526

1,364

2,206

5,732

56,467

2,024

734

3,800

7,954

7,968

591

197

2,898

1,002

2,344

5,966

35,055

2,032

6,174

3,708

12,102

34,558

1,328

3,511

342

5,031

2,387

141,700

13,420

2,093

5,033

1,988

3,556

24,514

2,961

120,197

11,788

2.727

7,721

20,062

216,060

6,072

1,467

7,315

16,374

26,560

1,773

591

7,245

5,010

10,782

14,915

94,378

5,080

9,648

9,270

30,939

51,836

3,187

3,511

1,710

7,558

7,426

322,647

1,000

5,080

33,240

4,230

159,890

16,080

9,090

4,320

22,450

2.840

5,080

35,240

4,230

171,710

16,840

9,090

11,030

28,660

150

1,016

6,648

846

23,984

2,412

1,364

864

4,490

700

3,556

23,268

2,961

111,923

11,256

2,727

3,024

15,715

Header operato r

Power brake/bending machine

Press operator/plate prin t

Punch press operato r

Punch press setter .. .

Riveter (Iight) ., .,

Roll forming machine . ,

Shearer/slitter operator . ,

Subtotal, metalforming

machines

Conveyor operator/tender . .

Die casting machine operator . . .

Dip plater . ,

Electroplate . ...

Plater helper . . .,

Fabricator, meta l

1o-1oo

5-1oo

291,440

18.070

6,530

7,780

27,350

26,100

5,910

1,970

4,420

2,070

14,770

344,310

20,240

14,670

9,500

29,770

26,560

5,910

1,970

14,490

5,010

23,440

49,575

‘1,807

327

3,112

5,470

7,830

591

197

884

414

1,477

192,401

5,421

653

5,991

15,043

26,100

1,773

591

2,210

2,070

6,794

5-15

20-100

5-40

Fabricator, plastic ., .,

Furnace operator/cuppola tender

Heater, metal, .

Heat treater, anneale r

Inject ion/compression mold

operator (plastic )

Inspector ., .,

Laminator, preforms ,

Machine operator. n.e.c .

c

.

Molder, machine . ,

Packager, production . ,

Painter, productio n

Pourer metal ... ., .,

Sandblaster, shot blaste r

Screwdriver operator (power)

Tester ., .,

Wirer, electric

Subtotal, miscellaneous

machine s

Joining (welding) .;

Assembly ... . .

Total of subtotals + joining +

assembl y

5-50

24,910

228,530

10,160

13,020

5,650

55,480

74,380

1,280

6,290

3,420

51,470

22,940

29,830

269,650

10,160

38,590

18,540

75,640

78,540

13,280

10,030

3,420

62,890

26,520

4,982

29,709

2,032

2,083

1,130

8,877

32,727

128

2,202

342

4,118

2,065

12,455

79$986

5,080

3,255

2,825

22,747

49,091

307

2,202

1,710

6,176

6,423

5-25

10-50

1-40

30-100

5-20

1o-1oo

1-10

0-1o

612,500 788,650 112,504 258,903 .

10-60

3-20

—— — 27

10

10-90

20-50

49 319,040 344,280

30 1,182,650 1,318,750

86,141

118,265

156,330

354,795

92,956 168,697

131,875 395,625

3,160,340 3,640,840 503,457 1,316,119 558,220 1,495,628

aTlme frame IS uncertain authors refer to “eventual” displacement potential

bEmployment figures are f~om Bureau of Labor Statlstlcs, oCCUpa~(O~a/ Ernp/oyrnenf fn A4anufacturjng Indusfnes (Washington, D C U S Government prlntln9 office. 1977}

C n e c . Not elsewhere classified

NOTE The !taltc!zed numbers are est!mates by Robert U Ayers, based on s!mllanty

SOURCE The /rnpacts of RobofIcs on the kVorkforce and Workp/ace, Carnegie-Mellon University, June 1981
148 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— ——— — -.

●

●

more restricted to preparing and transmitting information to upper management;

growth in the proportion of occupations

installing, operating, and repairing new

equipment and providing related support;

and

some deskilling of tasks in some craft occupations due to transfer of prior operator

functions to machines.66

However, it is imprudent to simply take

past trends as accurate forecasts of the future.

For example, there are indications that the occupational shift is not inexorable, at least in

the short term. Researchers at New York University, in the study cited at the beginning of

this chapter, forecast the effects on labor demand in 1990 and 2000 of a growing use of

computer technology in manufacturing, office,

health-service, and education settings. They

concluded that the overall trend toward white

collar employment would continue, but that

the shift would be greater for the slower of two

alternative trends for the diffusion of computer technologies.

Their analysis suggests that the large size

of the investment in capital goods required for

the diffusion of computer-based technologies

could buoy manufacturing industry and production occupation employment throughout

this century. While computerization reduces

demand for labor overall, because of anticipated slow growth in labor supply it can serve

to avert potential shortages of certain types

of personnel rather than create unemployment. Although, like any other modeling exercise, that analysis is shaped by its underlying assumptions, it shows how output levels

can determine employment mix as well as

level. Thus, output levels, economic perform-

———

YIECD, Information Actiw”ties, Ekctrom”cs and Tekcommum“cations Technologies, Paris, 1981. An econometric study of

the Canadian economy described in that OECD volume suggested that, as capital intensity grows, complexity of operations also g-ows, making planning and coordination—and associated personnel—more necessary. It also found that as the

cost of capital or equipment falls relative to other costs, demand

for “information labor” rises, while demand for “noninfm-mation labor” falls.

ance and growth can be seen to be vital to employment.

PA Producer Employment Mix

The emerging occupational mix found in

automation producers may indicate future

trends for the metalworking industries generally-and perhaps for the rest of the manufacturing sector as well. The Upjohn Institute,

for example, suggested that two-thirds of the

jobs among robot producers would be whitecollar, including professionals, technicians, administrators, sales, and clerical workers. *

Researchers at New York University, drawing on discussions with the leading robot producer (Animation), also estimated that about

two-thirds of employment in the robot industry would be white-collar, although it had different detailed estimates (see table 35). Finally, a similar appraisal was provided in recent

congressional testimony by Walt Weisel, chief

executive of a robot manufacturer (Prab Robots) and president of the Robotic Industries

Association (formerly the Robot Institute of

America). Weisel forecast new jobs in sales,

applications engineering, research and development, and field service among producers, as

well as new maintenance and manufacturing

process jobs among users.** These examples

reflect the fact that production work is relatively limited among producers of programmable automation (see ch. 7}; its role is also

declining among other manufacturers.***

The implications of the employment mix

found among producers of automated equipment can be seen by contrasting the staffing

profiles of the electronic and computing machinery and engineering and architectural services

*That study estimatti that employment by domestic robot

manufacturers was approximately 2,000 persons in 1982 and

would grow to between 9,000 and 17,000 by 1990. Hunt and

Hunt, op. cit.

**~restimony during he~ings before i,he House CO~ttee

on Small Business, Subcommittee on General Oversight and

the Economy, May 17, 1983.

***The Upjohn Institute also estimated that there wodd be

about 8,000 to 16,000 jobs associated with supplying hardware

components to robot producers by 1990. This latter estimate

assumes domestic sourcing of hardware; it will overstate actual supplier employment potential if companies continue to expand their imports of robotic hardware.
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment Ž 149 —— ..-— —

Table 35.— Estimates of Robot Manufacturer Staffing Profiles, 1982

— ——— —

Robot

manufacturing

Occupation (%)

New York Universitya -

Electrical engineers ., . . . . 12, 10/0

Industrial engineers . ... ., . . ... . . 2.2

Mechanical engineers . . . . . . . . . 4.4

Other engineers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3

Computer programmers . . . . . ... . . . . . . 2.1

Computer systems analysts . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9

Other computer specialists . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0,3

Personnel and labor relations workers ... . . . 0.3

Other professional, technical . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2

Managers, officials, proprietors ... . . . . . 9,0

Sales workers ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0

Stenographers, typists, secretaries . . . . . . . 5,6

Office machine operators ... . . . . . . . . 0,9

Other clerical . . . ... . . . ... . 9.2

Robot

manufacturing

Occupation ( % )

--—

Upjohn Instituteb

Engineers . . . . . . . . ... ... . . . . . . . . 23.7°/0

Engineering technicians ., . . . . ... 15.7

All other professional and technical workers 4,2

Managers, officials, proprietors . . . . ... , . . . . 6.8

Sales workers ... ... ... . . ., ... ., 3.4

Clerical workers . . . . . . . . . . 13.9

Skilled craft and related workers . ., . . . . 8.4

Semiskilled metalworking operatives . 4,2

Assemblers and all other operatives . . . . 19,0

Service workers . . . . . . . . . —

Laborers ... ... . . . . . . 0.7

Farmers and farmworkers ., . . . . . . —

Total . . ... . . ... ... ... . . . . 100,0

Electricians . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9

Foreman, n.e.c ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8

Machinists ... . . ... . . . . . . ... 2.3

Other metalworking craftworkers ..,..,,. .,, . 1.5

Mechanics, repairers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0,8

Assemblers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14,7

Checkers, examiners, Inspectors, , . .,,..,... 2, 8

Packers and wrappers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0,4

Painters . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7

Welders, flame cutters, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9

Other operatives, . .,, . .,, , .,, ..,,..... . . . 5,6

Janitors and sextons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0,4

Laborers, .........,..,,..,,..,,..,.. . . . . 0. 7

Total . ... ... ... ... ... . 100.0

.————.—

Columns may not add to total due to round!ng

.- ——————.——— .

nec = not elsewhere classified

SOURCES aWasslly Leontlef and Faye Duchln The Impacts of Aufomat(on on Ernp/oyrnent, 7S63.2000 final reporl New York Unlverslty Institute for Economic Analysls

April 1984 Data based on staffing of Untmatlon, Inc (now part of Westinghouse)

bH AlIan Hun! and Timothy L Flunt, Human Resource /mp//cat/ons of Robof/cs, The W E Upjohn Instlfute for Employment Research 1983

industries with those of the motor vehicles and

parts, metalworking machinery, and primary

metals industries (see table 36). The electronic

and computing machinery industries have primarily employed professional and technical

workers (39 percent) and other white-collar personnel, as has the engineering and architectural

services industry (69 percent professional and

technical). By contrast, employment in the

other industries has a more even distribution

over a larger range of occupations, with many

more opportunities in production jobs. For example, craft and kindred workers and operatives each comprise about a third of the employment in metalworking machinery; they

have comprised 20 percent and over 50 percent, respectively of motor vehicle employment .

The staffing contrast is instructive, because

employment opportunities for producing PA

will be more like those in the computer industry than in conventional metalworking manufacturing. As noted by the Upjohn Institute:

The most remarkable thing about the job

displacement and job creation impacts of industrial robots is not that more jobs are eliminated than created; this follows from the fact

that robots are labor-saving technology designed to raise productivity and lower costs

of production. Rather, it is the skill-twist that

emerges so clearly when the jobs eliminated

are compared to the jobs created . . . We submit that this is the true meaning of the S Ocalled robotics revolution. G7

‘-liunt and [~ unt, op. cit., p. 172.
 150 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace
—

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment Ž 151 —

The contrast in staffing patterns implies that

there will be relatively few opportunities for

people to move easily from other metalworking manufacturing jobs into automation-producer jobs. It also implies that there may be

fewer opportunities for promotion from production to nonproduction work.

Intercompany Patterns

Where automation is part of broader process

changes that also include changes in business

relations between manufacturers and their

suppliers or distributors, occupational shifts

within companies may mask offsetting or amplifying trends in related firms (upstream or

downstream). Computer links between facilities, in particular, may affect facility staffing.

Eaton, for example, is implementing a computer-aided design and manufacturing system

that will share information about product design, process planning, materials requirements, and costs among computers at 200

Eaton manufacturing facilities (and many subcontractors). Such a network will reduce engineering and other personnel requirements

per facility.”

As was discussed earlier, the spread of CAD

and its integration with CAM may alter companies’ decisions on whether to contract out

for drafting and other design services. In addition, the growth of automation service and

consulting firms will affect producer and user

hiring of applications engineering staffs. While

manufacturers have increasingly contracted

out for “producer services” such as accounting, food services, and security, programmable

automation may reinforce or counter this

trend for individual services, thereby influencing staffing patterns among both manufacturing and service firms.

Transient Skill Requirements

One factor that cushions employment adjustment in the short term but presents challenges for long-term planning and adjustment

~#Amen”c~ ~let~ .bfarket/Metalworking News, May 16, 1983.

is the tendency of early or simpler types of programmable automation (and other computer

applications) to require work that is found to

be no longer needed with more advanced technology. A classic example, in the case of computers, is keypunching. Keypunchers are still

in demand in the United States (over 57,000

were employed in 1980) because many computer users cannot afford to jettison outmoded

data-entry systems when improved technologies come along. The availability of new technology thus does not guarantee an immediate

demand for new skills and staffing. However,

keypunching was the only computer field to

experience declining employment in the

1970’s.

The most obvious areas in which skill requirements associated with PA maybe shortlived, at least in some firms, are data entry,

data transfer, and programing. One major

aerospace user of PA, for example, anticipates

a major reduction in its use of engineering and

computer support personnel with the integration of various computer-based systems.69 As

early as 1977, NC users responding to a survey conducted by MIT researchers ‘‘reported

a desire to reduce both programing and maintenance costs by increasing their dependence

on computer sophistication and reducing the

need for highly skilled technicians. “7°

At present, different automation equipment

and systems have different programing and

data-processing needs. Integration of those

systems where applicable, development of a

standard language, and/or other developments

(see ch. 3) may bring about a sharp reduction

in the amount of programing that is necessary.

CAD, CAE, and computer-based management

systems typically use commercial software

packages and involve little programing by

users. Although data entry is necessary to

establish databases, after the initial input

— 

.— s90TA case study.

‘“Robert T. I.und and Christopher J. 13arnett, “Numerically

Controlled Machine Tools and Group Technology: A Study of

U.S. Experience, ” .MIT Center for Policy Alternatives, Jan. 13,

1978.

r 

- 1

 [ .’ ~ - J.] - 1 1 : ,, (, ,
152 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—. —— — — —

Photo credit McDonnell Doug/as Automat/on Co

Graphics-based offline robot programing

using a CAD system

stage updating may be handled by professionals using distributed, interactive systems.*

Robots are usually programed with easy-touse software that generally does not require

programing skills, and they have tended to be

reprogramed infrequently. Moreover, direct

links between robots and CAD or CAE systems will further reduce robot programing.

Similarly, NC programing is becoming simpler, and direct links to CAD or CAE systems

will reduce programing requirements. While

users may develop greater needs for persons

capable of adapting programs, they will have

less need for program creators, although such

persons may remain important to suppliers of

PA equipment systems.

Transient jobs tend to persist among small

firms longer than among larger ones, inasmuch as small firms are less able to adopt

‘–xco~PUter.induStry representatives sw improved softw~e

and easier-t~use systems as a response to a perceived shortage

of programmers and other data-processing personnel. At an April

1983 conference, one software company spokesman contended,

“What we need is to make microcomputers easy enough to use

so that end users can control their destiny. ” See Robert Batt,

“Micros Seen Holding Key to DPer Lack, ” Cornputerworkf,

Apr. 25, 1983.

newer technology. However, the development

of cheaper, smaller, easier-to-use PA systems

—such as those currently fueling market

growth for CAD and CNC, in particular-will

hasten their adoption by smaller firms during

this decade and the next (see ch. 7).*

Qualification Trends

Evidence from the United States and other

countries suggests that, though automation

is simplifying production tasks, employers are

hiring better qualified, more skilled personnel.

Insofar as this occurs, simple contrasts in occupational employment levels will not be accurate indicators of changes in skill requirements.

Research from Japan and West Germany

brings out the contrast between employee

qualifications and skill requirements:

. A Japanese survey reported that the

spread of microelectronics was associated

on the one hand with substantial growth

in employment of high school and college

graduates with science and engineering

majors and on the other hand with growth

in the number of machine operators doing simple or unskilled tasks.71

● A Japanese case study of automation in

software development found that companies hired better educated staff over time

but adopted automated techniques aimed

*To put the timing issue into perspective, note that most job

openings represent the replacement of personnel, rather than

employment growth. Replacement hiring occurs not only because of deaths, retirements, and resignations, but also because

people move between occupations as well as jobs. Replacement

needs are one reason why BLS and others forecast that most

1980’s job openings will occur in existing occupations, and that

PA will have a negligible effect on many of the occupations expected to grow the most. Indeed, although 5 computer-related

occupations experienced dramatic emplo~’ment growth (ranging from 28 percent for data-entry personnel to 477 percent for

other computer specialists) between 1972 and 1982, as a group

they accounted for slightly more than 5 percent of overall job

growth in that period. See Ronald E. Kutscher, testimony before

the House Committee on Small Business, Subcommittee on

Oversight and the Economy, hearings on “The Impact of Robots and Computers on the Workforce of the 1980’ s,” May 18,

1983.

“’’Ministry of Labor Report on Microelectronics and Its Impact on Labor, ” cable from American Embassy (Tokyo) to U.S.

Secretary of State, August 1983.
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment • 153 —

at simplifying work, allowing employees

to ‘‘supervise’ automated processes.

Work tasks were changed in response to

shortages of experienced personnel.72

● A Japanese survey of electrical machinery

industry workers reported that operators

of microelectronics-equipped machines in

machine shops (and to a lesser extent in

assembly shops) perceived a need to understand computers, programing, electricity, and electronics, while machine “supervision’ and monotonous routine work increased.73

● A West German study of the employment

effects of NC machine tools reported that

workers increasingly perceived a need for

“professional training, ” while their responsibilities shifted from machine operation to machine “supervision.”74

The preference of employers to hire (or retain) well-educated personnel, both in the

United States and abroad, suggests that higher education or skill may be regarded as an indicator of other attributes such as responsibility (desired because of growing investments in

equipment) or an ability to solve problems and

troubleshoot (desired because of growing dependence on equipment and the costs of a

breakdown). Thus, the Japanese survey of electrical machinery workers noted a need for “attitudes such as meticulousness and accuracy,

the readiness to learn new things, and so

forth” that allow prompt decisionmaking and

quick responses.

In the short term, employers may continue

to employ personnel who are on average more

or less skilled than necessary. This is because

most companies are inexperienced with pro- — —

“Japan Labor Association, “A Special Study Concerning

Technological Innovation and Labor-Management Relations, ”

interim report, June 1983. Also, note that this experience is

similar to conditions observed following the introduction of NC

machine tools.

73 Denki Roren, “Surveys on the Impacts of Micro-Electronics

and Our Policies Toward Technological Innovation, ” paper pre

sented at the 4th IM F World Conference for the Electrical and

Electronics Industries, October 1983.

“Werner Dostal and Klaus Kostner, “Changes in Employment With the Use of Numerically Controlled Machine Tools, ”

(Mitteilungen aus der Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung),

1982.

. —

grammable automation, especially the production technologies, and are not yet familiar with

their exact skill requirements and capabilities.

In the long term, as experience is gained, companies may employ more lower skilled people

plus a few highly skilled people working at

higher levels. This may come about because

PA can lower skill requirements as well as job

numbers at low and middle levels of organizations, and because companies generally try to

reduce the amount of skill they have to pay

for. On the other hand, companies try to avoid

wholesale replacement of skilled categories,

since skilled workers are generally more productive than others. The transition in skill mix

is likely to be gradual, and it will vary among

firms and industries.

Compensation Patterns

Occupational shifts affect wage levels and

in turn influence the income distribution and

the buying power of consumers. The shifts discussed in this chapter will alter wage patterns

both within the manufacturing sector and between it and other sectors. While short-term

trends can be identified, long-term implications are less clear; they depend on many factors besides technology change.

A major implication of the shift to “whitecollar” or salaried jobs, given contemporary

wage patterns, is a reduction in access to wellpaying jobs for individuals with a high school

education or less, individuals who have traditionally found ready employment in the manufacturing sector (and in production jobs in particular). In many cases, manufacturing personnel earn higher pay than their skill levels or

educational attainment would suggest, in part

because of collective bargaining. By contrast,

many low-skill service jobs pay less and offer

less job security, in part because of the absence of collective bargaining. Lack of proper

education and training or employer prejudices,

as well as a reduction in available job opportunities, may restrict the movement of such

individuals into higher skilled jobs in the

manufacturing sector, while technology change
154 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

and import competition may reduce the total

number of manufacturing jobs. *

Figure 16 contrasts the earnings distribution for agriculture and industry and for services in 1971 and 1981. Lower levels of compensation for the service sector as a whole reflect

the relative lack of unionization, the prevalence of small firms, the greater role of parttime work, and the predominance of women.**

Table 37 shows the distribution of average

earnings by industry; table 38 shows that average earnings in metalworking industries are

higher than those in durable manufacturing

overall; and table 39 shows earnings levels by

occupation in machine-tool industries.

As the above contrasts suggest, employees

displaced from manufacturing employment

may suffer reductions in earnings, income, and

job security if they move into new jobs in service industries or into other jobs in manufacturing that are not subject to collective bargaining. The losses are especially likely for

older workers, whose wages would have grown

with seniority.

Changes in job mix may affect the distribution of income more than the level of income

overall. In very general terms, PA and other

factors will contribute to long-term growth in

output and, therefore, aggregate income. While

shifts in job mix may depress wage growth,

returns on invested capital may grow, shifting

spending power from workers to investors

(many of whom are workers themselves). This

shift may be compounded inasmuch as wage

earners are more likely than investors to spend

‘*A survey performed by Westat for OTA in August 1982

showed a propensity of firms—especially those that are

relatively large or relatively heavy users of automation-to train

professionals and high-skilled production workers to work with

automated equipment.

**”A large share of the rapidly increasing service sector employment has involved work traditionally done by women at

low pay, and throughout the period (1950-81) there has been

a marked tendency for much of the new white-collar work to

be defined as women’s work, paid for at relatively low rates and

performed by women and until recently by young workers from

the baby-boom generation. ” Thomas M. Stanback, Jr., “Work

Force Trends, ” The Long-Term Impact of Technology on Employment and Unemployment (Washington, D. C.: National

Academy Press, 1983).

on relatively labor-intensive goods and services, as some evidence suggests. *

Past trends suggest that technological

change and the declining share of manufacturing jobs in the economy have eroded midlevel

job and income opportunities, polarizing the

work force and income distribution (see table

40). Noyelle, for example, argues from an analysis of private sector earnings distributions

that:

Medium jobs are shrinking in importance

across the economy, in good part because

employers are increasingly emphasizing the

concentration of skills in a relatively narrow

stratum of upper level jobs, while dealing with

the rest of their work force as a buffer that

can be adjusted over the course of the economic cycle.75

However, it is not clear that this pattern will

continue in the long run. While long-term

changes in wage patterns and income distribution are beyond the scope of this report,

several observations can be made here.

Stanback and Noyelle attribute the loss of

midlevel jobs in manufacturing to “increased

separation between production and administrative functions . . . and the increased division of the work process within both production and corporate administration.”76 Programmable automation should counteract

these trends, because it aims to integrate production and administration. Also, PA may

help to reduce employment fluctuations

among firms in the future because it simultaneously lowers labor requirements and encourages broader job descriptions, which may

make workers less “dispensable.” Moreover,

as suggested by the discussion of occupational

trends above, PA may so blur occupational

*NOte that betjween 1968 and 1982, personal consumption

expenditures consistently grew faster than GNP; consumer

spending is the largest component of GNP. See Arthur J. Andreassen, “Economic Outlook for the 1990’s: Three Scenarios

for Economic Growth, ” Monthly Labor Review, November

1983.

75Thierry J. Noyelle, “People, Cities, and Services, ” The Entrepreneurial Economy, June 1983.

‘“Thomas N. Stanback, Jr., and Thierry J. Noyelle, Cities in

Transition (Totowa, N. J.: Allanheld, Osmun & Co., 1982).
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 155

I

L

1 I I 1 1 I 1 1 I I

L I I 1 1 I 1 1 I 1
156 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace —.
 Ch. 4—Effects 0f Programrnab/e Automation on Employrnent Ž 157

Table 38.—Earnings of Production Workers,

Selected Industry Groups, 1936 to Date, Annual Averages

Motor

Durable Nonelectrical vehicles &

qoods machinery equipment

Year industries industry Industry

Average weekly

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

NA Not Available,

$ 23.7 2

26.61

23.70

26.19

28.07

33.56

42 .17

48.73

51 .38

48.36

46.22

51 .76

56.36

57.25

62.43

68.48

72.63

76.63

76 .19

82 .19

85.28

88.26

89.27

96.05

97.44

100.35

104.70

108.09

112 ..19

117.18

122..09

123.60

132.07

139.59

143.47

153.52

167.27

179.28

190.48

205.09

225.33

248.46

270.44

290.90

310.78

342.91

355.67

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

$ 57.5 8

60.38

60.31

67.08

76.13

79.55

82.68

81 .40

87.36

93.06

94.12

94.33

102.92

104.55

107.42

113.01

116.20

121 .69

127.58

135.34

135.89

141 .88

152.15

154.95

161 .99

179.34

193.83

207.62

219.22

236.74

259.79

285.44

305.98

328.00

360.33

367.49

$ 30.13

32.66

30.59

33.58

36.69

42.68

54.15

59.13

60.12

55.28

52.28

58.63

63.15

67.33

74.85

77.16

84.87

898 8

91 .30

99.84

96.8 2

100.61

101 .24

111 .38

115.21

114.65

127.67

132.68

138.03

147.63

147.23

144.84

167.66

170.56

170.47

195.29

219.22

237.08

239.54

262.68

305.30

345.40

368.05

372.37

394.00

450.31

469.80

A Ircraft

and parts

Industry

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

$ 54.7 4

60.97

63.34

68.10

77.96

81 .27

83.38

84.66

89.21

95.57

96.35

101 .25

106.63

110.43

114.68

119.97

122.43

125.03

131 .88

143.32

146.97

152.04

161 .35

168.92

175.82

193.44

207.50

218.70

246.19

263.16

289.95

318.19

351 .05

389.76

425.80

462.38

. —

Metal- Metalworking cut t i n g

machinery machinery

Indust r

y

Indust r

y

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

$ 58.6 9

63.13

61 .33

71 .73

86.01

92.20

96.81

93.09

98.34

108.96

106.89

102.00

113.74

117.27

117.04

125.57

128.90

137.06

144.37

153.72

154.56

158.70

172.38

174.28

174.62

198.29

214.90

225.33

226.46

248.89

279.72

308.88

329.30

346.83

371 .49

377.94

$ 28.7 3

32.48

26.75

32.34

37.44

44.22

52.70

55 .11

58.19

57.14

54.4 0

57.8 7

61 .68

59.23

69.87

85.14

90.24

95.17

89.25

95.48

106.25

101 .04

91 .20

106.93

110.99

111 .92

119.41

124.42

132.01

138.76

150.20

154.25

152.65

166.61

166.00

163.90

194.71

219.11

232.74

232.68

249.96

290 .18

322.56

344.21

366.21

383.95

380.83

SOURCE U S Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment and Earnings Statistics 190970 (also monthly ) National Machine Tool BUilders Association 1983-1984 EConomic

Handbook of the Machine Tool Industry
158 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—..———.—— —..— .

Table 38.— Earnings of Production Workers,

Selected Industry Groups, 1936 to Date, Annual Averages—Continued

Year

Average hourly

1936

1937

1938

1939

1940

1941

1942

1943

1944

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

Durable

goods

industries

$ 0.58

0.67

0.68

0.69

0.72

0.80

0.94

1 .05

1. 11

1. 10

1 .14

1 .28

1 .40

1 .45

1 .52

1 .65

1 .75

1 .86

1 .90

1 .99

2.08

2.19

2.26

2.36

2.43

2.49

2.56

2.63

2.71

2.79

2.90

3.00

3.19

3.38

3.56

3.80

4.05

4.32

4.68

5.14

5.55

6.06

6.58

7.13

7..75

8.53

9.05

Nonelectrical

machinery

industry —

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

$ 134

1 46

1 52

1 6 0

1 75

1 85

1 95

2 0 0

2 0 8

2 2 0

2 2 9

2 3 7

2 4 8

2 5 5

2 6 2

271

2 7 8

2 8 7

2 9 6

3 0 9

3 1 9

3 3 7

3 5 8

3 7 7

3 9 9

4 2 7

4 5 5

4 9 2

5 3 6

5 7 6

6 2 6

6 7 8

7 3 2

8 0 0

8 8 1

9 2 8

Motor

vehicles &

equipment

Industry

$ 0 .76

0.88

0.91

0.92

0.94

1 .04

1 .17

1 .24

1 .27

1 .27

1 .35

1 .47

1 .61

1 .70

1 .78

1 .91

2.05

2.14

2.20

2.29

2.35

2.46

2.55

2.71

2.81

2.86

2.99

3.10

3.21

3.34

3.44

3.55

3.89

4.10

4.23

4.74

5.11

5.45

5.90

6.47

7.10

7.85

8.50

9.06

9.85

11 .01

11.60

Aircraft

and parts

Industry

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

$ 1.37

1 .49

1 .56

1.64

1 .7.8

1 .89

1 .99

2.07

2.16

2.27

2.35

2.50

2.62

2.70

2.77

2.87

2.95

3.02

3.14

3.31

3.45

3.62

3.86

4.12

4.32

4.65

5.00

5.40

5.99

6.45

6.92

7.54

8.26

9.28

10.31

11 .25

Metalworking

machinery

industry

Metalcutting

machinery

Industry

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

$ 1.38

1.49

1 .54

1 .65

1 .83

1 .97

2. 10

2. 17

2 .24

2.40

2.48

2.55

2 .67

2 .74

2.80

2.90

2.97

3.08

3.18

3.32

3.45

3.64

3.90

4 .12

4.28

4.59

4. .84

5. 18

5 .51

5.94

6. 49

7. 02

7. 57

8.18

8.93

9.52

$ 0.65

0.73

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.86

0.99

1 .09

1 .15

1. 19

1 .27

1 .37

1 .47

1 .51

1. 62

1. 80

1 .92

2.06

2.10

2.19

2.33

2.40

2.40

2.54

2.63

2.71

2.79

2.88

2.98

3.07

3.23

3.39

3.55

3.83

4.00

4.16

4.56

4.88

5.23

5.54

5.98

6.61

7.20

7.77

8.38

9.12

9.79

NA Not Ava!lable

SOURCE U S Bureau of Labor Statlstlcs Employment and Earnings Statlstlcs 190970 (also monthly) National Mach[ne Tool Builders Assoclatlon 1983-7984 Ecorrom(c

Handbook of the Mach/ne Tool /ndus/ry
.— —

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 159 —

m
160 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 161

— .—— - —. — .

Table 40.– Distribution of Total U.S. Labor Force Among Earnings Classes, 1960 and 1975, and

Distribution of 1960-75 Job Increases in the Services

Distribution of total U.S. labor force 1960-1975 job increases

(percentages)’ in servicesb

— .

Earnings classesc

1960 1975 ‘- Numbers of

jobs (1,000) Percentage

1.60 and above . . . . . . . . . 10,9

1,59 to 1.20 . ... 20,7 }

31.6 12.0

22.2 )

34.2 1,947 9.5

5,224 25,5 }

35.0

1.19 to 0.80 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.9 27.8 2,311 11.3

0.79 to 0.40 . . . . . . . . . . . 24.1

)

32.5 28,4

)

9,205 44,9

0,39 and below . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 9.6 38.0 1,829 8.9 )

53.8

Total ., . . . . . ... ... . 100.0 —— 100.0 20,516 100,0— .

aEXCIUdes ‘grlculture, mlnlng, and public admlnlstratlon

bTran5portatlon and other “tfl([(es wholesale retatl f(nance Insurance, real estate corporate SefVICeS, consumer Se~lCeS and non PrOf(t

cRelaflve to 1 0, for average earnings

SOURCE Thomas M S[anback J r Work Force Trends The Long Term Impact of Techrto/ogy on Ernp/oyrnent wd Unernp/oyrnenf (Washington D C National Academy

Press 1983)

distinctions (e.g., between engineer and technician in some cases) as to raise questions

about equal pay for equal work, potentially

motivating a compression of the pay scale.

Finally, the factors that shaped past patterns of service sector employment and compensation, such as an accelerating influx of

women into the labor force, will not be the ones

to shape future traits, especially if capital intensity and productivity grow in the service

sector as expected (due to computerization and

other factors) and as slower growth in the labor force makes labor scarcer (see below).

Nevertheless, the technologies may also

allow a continuing polarization of the work

force in at least some instances. For example,

a recent study of software production found

that individual workers are assigned small

pieces of a larger task, which in turn is part

of still larger tasks.

The elaborate division of labor energy in

software work is sometimes—and mistakenly—called specialization. It is more accurately called fragmentation. Increasingly, software work is characterized by a stratification

of responsibility and pay, not just a division

of labor. What is unclear is whether there is

a direct path between low-paying and highpaying positions.77

A common response, especially from the

labor movement, to the prospect of a worsening income distribution (or erosion of earning

power) due to changing job opportunities is to

propose that work hours be reduced.78 As

Wassily Leontief has noted,

——.

TTPhilip Kraft and Steven Dubnoff, 4 ‘Software Workers Survey, ” Computer World (in depth), Nov. 14, 1983.

WIee, for example: AFL-CIO, “The Future of Work, ” mimeo

1983.
162 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

The reduction of the average work week in

manufacturing from 67 hours in 1870 to somewhat less than 42 hours must also be recognized as the withdrawal of many millions of

working hours from the labor market. Since

the end of World War 11, however, the work

week has remained almost constant.79

Moreover, jobs in manufacturing, especially

among metalworking industries, typically include overtime hours of work (and corresponding extra pay). The United Automobile Workers Union has begun to press for reductions

in overtime work as a means of increasing

auto-industry employment. Its leadership has

linked the issues of work hours, job security,

and acceptance of technological change.80

While reducing work hours can increase the

number of jobholders, it may not be possible

to employ more people without reducing real

(i.e., adjusted for inflation) per-person wages.

For this reason, job-sharing programs undertaken in Europe and in this country, including

reductions in hours of work, have tended to

be temporary.

Automation may allow real wages to increase only under certain circumstances, and

where they do increase they may not increase

enough (see fig. 17). * Increases in nominal as

7eWassily W. Leontief, “The Distribution of Work and Income, ” Scientific American, September 1982. The average of

weekly hours in manufacturing during 1982 was 38.9 (down

from 40,2 in 1979), compared to 35.1 (down from 35.7 in 1979)

for the total private nonfarm economy. See Valerie A. Personick,

“The Job Outlook Through 1995: Industry Output and Employment Projections, ” Monthly Labor Review, November

1983; and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, May 1983.

“’Overtime, Technology, ’84, Issues” Automotive News, Dec.

19, 1983.

*Note that Leontief has argued that real wages are not likely to rise sufficiently to allow voluntary reductions in the work

week, given anticipated technological displacement. Leontief

advocates government intervention via income maintenance and

income distribution programs. See Wassily N. Leontif, “The

Distribut`ion of Work and Income, ” op. cit.

well as real wages will be constrained by increasing international competition. (Note that

manufacturing workers in Hong Kong, as in

other developing regions, work 6 days a week,

10 hours a day, have few holidays a year and

earn relatively low wages. Their lower standard of living constrains us from raising ours

where our products compete in the same market.) General Motors, for example, has

attempted to increase its ability to compete

with producers operating in low-wage countries by introducing a dual pay system which

provides lower wages for new workers, confronting existing personnel with “an agonizing choice between going against deeply held

union principles and giving some of their

neighbors a chance for a job. “81 Several other

companies have also moved to adopt dual pay

systems, but such systems are considered

controversial.82 Other mechanisms for sharing

work, such as early retirement (which shares

jobs between generations rather than among

contemporaries), may more easily preserve

wage levels, although they may draw on a

smaller pool of workers.

Profit-sharing may provide a means by

which employees gain job security in exchange

for variable compensation. Interest in profitsharing has been growing recently. Both

heightened international competition and

greater capital intensity due to PA use may

stimulate manufacturers’ interest in profitsharing.

—.—

81John Holusha, “G. M. Division Votes on Two-Level Pay, ”

The New York Times, Aug. 24, 1983.

*

zSteven Flax, “Pay Cuts Before the Job Even Starts, ” Fortune, Jan. 9, 1984.

Contextual Factors

There are many ways for companies to ad- other involuntary separations of employees if:

just to changing labor needs. Employers can 1) the timing of displacement is paced accordlower their use of labor without layoffs or ing to the normal turnover or attrition rate of
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment • 163

—. -.

Figure 17.—Technology

Type of Change in amount of

technology labor used v. Change

change only in type of

labor used

output

I

hour rises

Labor

Capital saving

or neutral

Deskill

Capital

rises

output

\ constan t

Real wage

change

Real wage

rise

Real wage

rise

Real wage

rise

Real wage

constant

- Real wage

Technology not adopted

(at old wages, prices and costs)

\ Capita l

Capital using Output price

falls

Real wage

rise

Real wage fall

or constant

Real wage

rise

Real wage

constant

Real wage

Deskill

KEY Deslil l Reduce hi-skill hi-wag e

NOTE There is no straightforward economic analysis of effect of change in skill mix

SOURCE OTA, based on analysis by Eileen Appelbaum, Temple University.

not rise

as there IS for change in labor productuctivity per se
164 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

the firm (which reflects resignations, permanent disability departures, deaths, retirements, entry into extended military service,

disciplinary discharges, and transfers); 2) current employees who wish to remain with the

firm can do new work or jobs (on their own or

with training); and/or 3) the level of output expands to at least accommodate the existing

labor force, despite growth in output per

employee.

AT&T, for example, increased automation

without major layoffs during the 1950’s and

1960’s because of expanding output; it now appears to have less capacity for maintaining

employment levels. General Electric, for example, is spending $100 million to modernize

refrigerator production and expects to eliminate 1,000 jobs from that operation by the

mid-1980’s. However, it does not plan to lay

off personnel because about 300 employees

leave voluntarily each year, and the company

plans to reassign personnel to other appliance

manufacturing jobs.83 84 Similarly, Westinghouse has a policy of not laying off personnel

because of technology change.

This section examines relevant changes in

the labor supply that may complement the effects of technology and demand changes on

hiring patterns, and it examines Japanese approaches to work force adjustment. Chapter

6 discusses retraining and counseling programs to ease transitions of current employees.

Labor Supply

The makeup of the population and the labor

force are important factors for evaluating the

overall challenge of adjusting to changing job

opportunities. The size, growth, and age structure of the labor force are relevant, as is com-

‘

3 Bruce Vernyi, “ GE Investing $1OOM in Refrigerator Line, ”

American Metal Market/Metalworh”ng News, July 25, 1983.

“See “GE to Improve Some Businesses for $590 Million, ”

The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 2, 1983. A $362 million investment by GE in plant and equipment for aircraft engines and

controls will affect 1,215 employees in two cities. GE plans to

reassign many workers, provide “special education and retraining assistance, ” and sponsor placement programs for personnel choosing to leave.

position by race and sex. OTA expects that

some of the labor supply trends discussed below will help to offset the potential negative

effects of PA on employment levels.

The total U.S. population is growing relatively slowly; the Census Bureau predicts that

the population will reach its maximum size

(308.9 million) in the year 2050. Growth in the

labor force, which includes principally people

between the ages of 16 and 65, peaked during

the late 1970’s following the influx of the babyboom generation and rapid growth in labor

force activity among women. The median age

of the population has risen to over 30, and the

proportion of the population under 25 is declining (it is now about 41 percent, down from 46

percent in 1970).86 The number of persons aged

26 to 29 will also decline through this century.

The median age of the labor force is almost 35,

and the number and proportion of workers

aged 16 to 24—the new entrant group-will

fall. Consequently, the labor force is expected

to grow relatively slowly in this and future

decades (see tables 41 and 42).

Slower growth in the labor force makes the

economy better able to absorb increases in output per worker without growth in unemployment. Indeed, for output to grow relative to

the labor force, increases in output per worker

would be necessary; without them, companies

would experience labor shortages. On the

other hand, if output does not grow fast

enough relative to the labor force, labor

surpluses may arise. Labor surpluses may be

realized as unemployment, withdrawal from

the labor force, or involuntary part-time

employment and other forms of underemployment. Official unemployment statistics measure only part of the problem.

The aging of populations and labor forces

influences who can and will bear the burden

of adjusting to changing labor requirements.

Other things being equal, the greater the proportion of older workers, the faster will attri-

“5’’U.S. Population Seen Hitting Peak in 2050 of 308.9 Million, ” The Wall Street Journal, Nov. 9, 1982; and H. N. Fullerton, Jr., and J. Tschetter, “The 1995 Labor Force: A Second

Look, ” Monthly Labor Review, November 1983.
—

Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 165

Table 41. —U.S. Population by Age Groups, 1929-83 (thousands of persons)

- –——— — — —

I

~

.—— —— Age (years)

—

July 1 1 Total ‘ 1 —r~–—— ’

I

65 and

over

6,474

7,363

8,764

9031

9288

9,584

9,867

10147

10494

10,828

11185

11538

11321

12,397

12,803

13,203

13,617

14,076

14525

14938

15388

15806

16,248

16,675

17089

17457

17,778

18,127

18451

18755

19071

19, 365

19680

20107

20561

21,020

21525

22061

22696

23,278

23392

24502

25134

25,714

26260

26824

Under 5 I

_ _ _

16-19

7

9,127

9,302 I

20-24 I

L

10694

11,152 I

11,519

11,690

11,807

11,955

12,064

12,062

12036

12,004

11,814 I

11,794

11,700

11,680

11,552

11,350 ~

11,062

10,832

35,862

37319

39,354

39,868

‘40,383

41,420

42016

42521

21076

22.933 ~

25823

26,249 I

26,71 8

27,196

27671

28138

28630

29064

29,498

29931

30405

1929 I121,767 11734

10,612

10,418

10,579

10,850

11,301

12,016

12,524

12,979

13,244

14406

14919

15,607

16,410

17333

17312

17 638

18057

18566

19003

19,494

19,887

20,175

20,341

20,522

20469

20342

20,165

26800

26,897 ~ 1933 125579

1939 130880 25,179 9,822 I

1940 , 132,122

1941 133402

1942 134860

1943 136,739

1944 138,397

1945 139928

1946 141,389

1947 144,126

1948 146,631

1949 149,188

24,811

24,516

24,231

24,093

23,949

23,907

24,103

24468

25,209

25,852

26,721

27279

28894

30227

31480

32,682

33,994

35,272

36445

37,368

38,494

39,765

41,205

41,626

9,895 ;

9,840

9,730

9607

9,561

9,361

9,119

9,097

8,952

8,788

8,542

8,446

8,414

8,460

8,637

4302 7

43657 ~

44288

44916

45672

46103

46495

46786

30849

31,362

31,884

32394

32,942

1950

1

152,271

1951 154,878

1952 157553

1953 160184

1954 163,026

1955 165,931

1956 168,903

1957 171,984

1958 174,882

1959 177,830

47001

47,194

47,379

47440

47337

47,192

47,140

47084

47013

46994

46,958

10714

10,616

10603

10,756

10,969

11,134

11,483

11,959

12,714

13,269

13,746

14050

15248

15,786

16,480

17202

18,159

18,153

18,521

18,975

8,744 I

8916

9,195

9,543

10215 ~

33,5C6

34,057

34591

35,109

35662

36,203

36722

3? 255

37782

38338

38,916

39,534

40,193

40846

41,427

41999

42482

42,898

43235

43,522

1960 I

180671

1961 183691

1962 186,538 I

1963 I 189,242

10,693

11,025

11,180

12,007

12,736

13,516

14,311

14,200

14,452

14,800

1964 I 191889 42,297

42,938

43,702 ~

44244

44622

44840

46912

47001

47,194

47721

1965

1966

1967

1968 200706

1969 202677

19,824

19,208

18563

17913

17376

17166

17244

17101

16,851

16,487

16,121

15,617

15,564

15,735

16063

16,457

16,943

17372

48064

48,473

48936

50,482

51,749

53051

54302

55852

57,561

59,400

61,379

63,474

65,496

67,625

I

44,81 6

44,591

44203

43582

42,989

1970

1971

1972 209,896

I

1973 211,90 9

1974 213,854

1975 215973

1976

1977

1978 222585

1979 I 225,055

1980 1

1981

227704

229,849

1982 232057

1983 234,249 I

15,289

15688

16,03 9

16,446

16,769

1701 7

17,194

17276

17,28 8

17,242

17,136

16682

16,205 I

19,527

19,986

20499

20,946

21,297

21612

21946

21,935

42,508

42099

41298

40,428

39,552

38,820

38046

37620

43801

44,008

4415 0

44,286

44390

44,493

44,476

44474

I

I .— ———L 1 — . ——. . -1 –— —

Note -Includes Armed Forces overseas begtnnlng 1940 Includes Alaska and Hawal beglnmng 1950

SOURCE Department of Commerce Bureau of Census

BLS has forecast that the proportion of employees aged 55 and older will fall in the 1980’s

and 1990’s, in part because of anticipated declines in labor force participation.89 At the

same time, there will be growth in the share

of 25- to 54-year-old employees, the prime age

group. Change in the age mix (and other demographic phenomena, such as labor force participation rates), will also lead to changes in

tion through retirement (normal or early)

reduce the population at risk of displacement.

However, involuntary retirement is tantamount to layoff, and it may be a source of

effective unemployment.

For those eligible for pensions or social

security, labor force withdrawal is a more viable alternative to a prolonged job search than

it is for younger persons, who are less likely

to have alternative sources of income.86

-—

“H. N. Fullerton, Jr., and J. Tschetter, ‘iThe 1995 Labor

Force: A Second Look, ” Monthlj’ Labor Retriew, November

1983.

—

“Philip L. Rones, “Labor Market Problems of Older IT’orkers, Monthl.v Labor Review, May 1983.
adjusted, except as noted)

———————.———-—.—— .——.— —— ___— — – .— .—

Period

— —

1929

1933

1939

1 ————L––—J—– —l—-— — L—— d —– — 4 2 —— A.. __l ----

Thousands of persons 14 years of age and over 1

Percent — .—— - ——_ —-— - ––—-4 — - -- – —~——— —

149,180

_——. —

47,630 10450 37,180

28,670

36,140

37980

41250

44500

45,390

45,010

44240

38760 10090

45,750 9,610

47520 9,540

5035 0 9100

53750 9,250

54470 9,080

53,560 8,950

I

1,040 I

I 19 

3 9

3 9

57.2

55.8

568

583

588

589

592

593

590

589

588

593

600

596

595

593

I

1945 94.090 

1946 103070 I

 53860

I 57.520

52820 8,580

55250 I 8,320 46933,

1947 106,018 60,168 57,812 8,256 4955 7

2,270 I

2,356 ,

 . ——–. 

Thousands of persons 16 years of age and over

3 . 9

3 . 8

5 . 9

7,160

6,726

6,500

6,260

6,205

4 4 600

57450 

59065

4,602 66 I 68

70,157 3,740 53 I 55

71489

72,359

72,675

69628 65778

70,459 65,746

70,614 66702

71833 67,762

73,091 69305

82,771 78678

84,382 I 79367

87034 82153

86838 I 89429 85,064

88,515 I 91949 86794

4882 55

4365 48

5,156 55

7,929 ~ ~ 83

7,406 I 76

6991 69

6,202 60

6137 58

8 5 616

77 620

71 I 626

61 635

3,347 95477 58 640

3,364 95938

—-J – – -4 – — - — .——— ——

1 Not seasonally arl usted

2 Unemoloyec as percelt of Ia!xrforce (nclud, nfl resident Armed Forces

s Labor force Includlng reslti~~r Armed Forces as oercent of non~nstltut,onai population tnclud[ng resident Armtd Force s

* Clwllan labor force as percent or clwllar nomnst[tutlonal popu(a[lon

$ Not strtctly comoa(able wtth earner data aue to population afljustmenls as follows 8eglnnlng 1953 Introduction of 1950 census

data added abo~t 000000 to poDu Iat Ion arm atmu! 350000 [O labor force to[al-ernplovrrren[ and agricultural employment BeRlnnlng

1960, mcluslon of Alaska and Hawaii added about 500000 to po~ulat on about 300,000 to labor force, and about 240 ~GO to

nonagricultural employmen[ Been n ng 1962, ln[rccuc[ton c. 1960 census ;~ta rsduced ocDulaflon b about 50,000 and IaOor force and

employment bv about 200020 t3eg, nn, ng 1972 lntroauctlon of 1970 cersus data added a~out 100000 to cwlafl nonnstfulonal

population and dDOUf 333000 10 ~j~or forc~ 3nd emplovmen[ A sub$ccuent adjustment based on 1970 census n March 1973 added

60000 to Idbor force and to elo(o men[ Beglnnlng 1978 changes II samollng and esrlmatlon procedures mtroducea In!o the

household survey added .abO,Jt 2500 i 0 to labor !crce and [O ernploymen[ IJnernpovrnent levels and rates were not stgmflcan!ly

affected

SOURCE Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor `Statlstlcs
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment • 167

aggregate buying patterns, which will in turn

affect production and employment. For example, spending by and for older citizens will

grow in absolute terms and relative to spending on child-rearing expenses.

Given the tendency of employers in the

United States (and other industrialized nations) to reward seniority by lowering the risk

of layoff as tenure rises, the loss of job opportunities associated with programmable automation or business slowdowns first affects

younger workers and new job seekers.88 Many

analysts believe that slow growth in the numbers of young adults will lessen competition

for manufacturing jobs, lowering the risk of

unemployment in manufacturing industries.

This may particularly affect durable manufacturing, since workers tend to move out of jobs

in those industries as they age. Also, while

middle-aged workers are generally not recruited for entry-level jobs, they may begin to

fill such jobs in the wake of the decline of

younger worker groups. Declining numbers of

young workers may also have a favorable effect on unemployment rates generally, since

teenagers have accounted for about one-tenth

of the population but about one-fourth of

cyclical employment variation.89

An older labor force means a more experienced work force. Shortages of experienced

workers have been cited by employers in the

past as a justification for automating. For example, manufacturers have cited the aging and

retirement of experienced metalworking craftsmen as a motivation for automating machining operations. On the other hand, new technology, especially rapidly changing technology, may make fresh training more important

than experience for some categories of technical personnel. This is believed to be increasingly so for engineers, for exarnple.90 Skills ob-

—.

Wee, for example, Robert E. Hall, “The Importance of Lifetime Jobs in the U.S. Economy, ” American Economic Review,

vol. 72(4), September 1982.

“U.S. Department of Labor, Office of the Assistant Secretary

for Policy, Evaluation, and Research, “The Demographic Composition of Cyclical Variations in Employment, ’ Technical Analysis Paper No. 61, January, 1979.

‘Douglas Braddock, “Engineers-Higher Than Average Risk

of Obsolescence?’ Occupational Outlook Quarterl.v, summer

1983,

—- —

solescence may inhibit the substitution of

more available middle-aged and older workers

for declining numbers of younger workers, or

it may stimulate industrial retraining. An increase in the incidence of unemployment

among older workers may raise new concerns.

Once displaced, the oldest workers (55 and

over) apparently have the longest spells of unemployment, are most likely to suffer pay cuts

upon obtaining a new job after being unemployed, and are least likely to change occupations.91 A major uncertainty is whether and

how employers will adapt their personnel practices in response to new technological and

demographic conditions.

The contrast between the United States and

Japan in rates and extent of adoption of programmable automation reflects in part their

differences in population and age structure.

The Japanese population aged more quickly

than that of the United States (reflecting the

lack of a “baby boom” in the postwar years

comparable to that in the United States) (see

table 43). Since the late 1960’s, the Japanese

have experienced labor shortages that helped

to motivate their adoption of PA. In part,

those shortages arose from slow growth in new

labor force entrants; in part, they grew out of

national norms, including lower female labor

force participation, preference for single-shift

employment, early mandatory retirement (between 50 and 60), and growing unwillingness

of high school graduates to do unpleasant

physical work.92

Finally, the U.S. labor force w-ill also develop

a “new look” due to growing proportions of

minority and female workers. Programmable

automation may have an important effect on

minority employment, in particular, since

blacks and Hispanics are now relatively well

represented in manufacturing jobs, especially

in the lower skilled operative and laborer

‘

] See Philip L. Rones, “The Labor Market Problems of Older

Workers, ” and Malcolm H. Morrison, “The Aging of the U.S.

Population: Human Resource Implications” both in Monthly

Labor Review, May 1983.

“See Robert E. Cole, “Participation and Control in Japanese

Industry, ” paper prepared for Conference on Productivity, Ownership, and Participation, Agency for International Development, U.S. Department of Labor, May 1983; and Kazuo Koike,

“Japanese Workers in Large Firms. ”
168 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace
—————— . — — . .

categories (see table 44). Minorities may not

be well-positioned in the event that manufacturers seek to upgrade educational qualifications, since they are much more likely than

whites to have fewer than 12 years of education (see table 45). Also, minorities are disproportionately likely to experience labor market

discouragement. 93 Finally, while working

women are principally employed in trade and

service industries, about 15 percent work in

manufacturing. Almost half of female manufacturing personnel are operatives, an occupational category especially susceptible to displacement. 94

Japanese Mechanisms of Adjustment

Given the great attention now paid to Japanese manufacturing practices and labor

management relations, it is useful to examine

how Japanese firms have adjusted their work

forces with the adoption of automation during periods generally characterized by output

growth. Japanese experience reveals that the

unique industrial and social stratification practiced there shapes—and to some extent obscures—the incidence of displacement.

Japanese manufacturers who automate

often protect their work forces by altering

their use of subcontractors and suppliers,

transferring personnel, and changing work

hours, as well as by increasing output. These

are fairly conventional approaches worldwide.

However, other Japanese practices are more

peculiar to the Japanese context, and are now

a source of controversy in Japan, as they

would certainly be in the United States. These

include the “preferential” laying off of workers

such as women, part-time, temporary, and

middle-aged and older people.

A recent Japanese survey reported decreased reliance on outside firms and the internalization of more aspects of production,

with an accompanying 20 percent or more decrease in women and part-time (mostly female)

.

‘

3 Philip 1.. Rones, “The Labor Market Problems of older

Workers, ” Monthi-v Z.abor Review, May 1983.

“U.S. Department of I.abor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ernpioevment and Earnings, May 1983.

Ch. 4—Effects of Prograrnmable —— .——

Automation on Employment ● 169

——.

workers. At the same time, the use of microelectronics technologies had wrought considerable changes for 70 percent of users. Working hours fell (or a second shift was adopted),

and on average, production employment fell

by 40 percent, with affected personnel being

absorbed by transfer to other work.95 The

survey of Japanese electrical machinery

workers reported a 60 percent overall decline

in staffing caused by microelectronics, affecting peripheral as well as immediate tasks;

more often than not, temporary and part-time

employment fell first with the introduction of

microelectronics. 96 Interestingly, that survey

reported that workers perceived a problem of

understaffing.

More detailed evidence comes from recent

Japanese case studies. In one transistor and

integrated circuit plant, before automation,

there was one person per machine; after automation the ratio was one to two, production

scheduling went from multiple to two shifts,

and people were laid off. In a relay-manufacturing plant, the introduction of robots led to

a reduction in overtime and the allocation of

workers to other tasks elsewhere in the plant.

The adoption of an automatic component processing system in an electronic cash register

plant resulted in a work force decrease from

100 to 65 (chiefly by laying off women) and the

movement of work (20 percent) in-house that

was previously performed by subcontractors.

Finally, an automobile manufacturer found

that robots allowed the direct labor time required in small-car manufacture to decline by

about one-half during the 1970’s, but output

growth allowed employment to rise. However,

seasonal and temporary employment fell.97

These practices reflect the fact that the

vaunted Japanese system of ‘permanent employment” is largely limited to male workers

“’’Ministry of Labor Report on Microelectronics and Its Impact on Labor, ” cable from American Embassy (Tokyo) to U.S.

Secretary of State, August 1983.

‘Denki Roren, “Surveys on the Impacts of MicroElectronics

and (3w Policies Towards Technological Innovation, ” paper pm

sented at the 4th IMF World Conference for the Electrical and

Electronics Industries, Oct. 3-5, 1983.

“Japan Labor Association, “A Special Study Concerning

Technological Innovation and Labor-Management Relations, ”

Interim Report, June 1983.
 170 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

. —

Table 44.—Minority Employment Patterns

Emp/eyed black and Hispanic-origin workers by occupation (numbers in thousands)

I I I ~ 1982

Occupation I Total Percent of total I Occupation Total

1982

Percent of total

1

5 . 2

I Craft and kindred workers—Continued

All other craft workers I 2,467 6 . 0

10. 0

9 , 8

11. 2

8 . 8

6 . 5

6 . 1

9 . 2

8 . 2

6 . 6

3.5

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.7

Operatives, except transport I9,429

Durable goods manufacturing 3,966

Nondurable goods manufacturing 3,05 4

Other industries I 2,40 9

13.5

12.5

16.3

11.5

13.1

12.5

Self employed workers in retail trade 17.5 I

 838

Self employed workers, except retail trade 1,02 6

Sales workers ~ 6,58 0

Retail trade 3,31 0

Other Industries 3,27 0

Clerical workers 18,44 6

Stenographers, typists, and secretaries 4,855

Other clerical workers 13,59 1

Blue-collar workers 29,59 7

Craft and kindred workers 12,27 2

Carpenters 1,08 2

Construction craft workers, except carpenters 2,50 9

Mechanics and repairers 3,35 8

Metal craft workers 1,16 8

Blue-collar worker supervisors, not elsewhere

classified 1,68 8

3 . 3

3 . 5

3 . 8

4 . 9

2 . 8

9 . 4

7 . 5

10.1

10. 9

6 . 7

4 , 2

8 . 4

6 . 2

7 . 1

6 . 7

15. 1

16.6

15.7

14.6

10.7

8 . 6

7 . 5

4 . 8

4 . 1

5.1

16.7 1 6.3

28.2

15.7

10.2

13.8

20.4

8 . 2

6 . 2

6 . 4

4 . 0

6 . 5

7 . 1

. 6

14.5

17.8

.4

7 . 5

5 . 5

4 . 9

5 . 4

5 . 6

5 . 6

5 . 5

1 . 2

10. 4

12.7

5 . 2 . 4

Employed black and Hispanic-origin workers by industry (numbers in thousands)

5 . 0

4 . 8

5 . 0

4 . 6

4 . 6

7 . 8

4 . 4

5 . 6

6 . 9

4 , 6

3 . 8

3 . 9

11. 4

26. 4

10. 7

8 . 4

11. 3

6 . 9

11. 4

11. 1

Automobile s 853

Other transportation equipment I

1,078

Instruments and related products 6 0 0

15.8 3.9

4 . 5

4 . 2

13.4 4 . 3

SOURCES U S Department of Labor, Employment and Earnings (household data, annual averages), May 1983
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 171

0 I

I

I
172 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 46.—Employed Persons and Employees by Occupation, Japan (ten thousand persons)

Employed persons: Farmers, Workers in Craftsmen

Clerical lumber- transport and Protective

Professional Managers and men, and and commu- production service workers

and technical and related Sales fisher- Mining nication process

Year Total

and

workers officials workers workers men workers occupations workers Labourers service workers

Both sexes: Annual average:

1975 5,223 364 206

1976 5,271 380 215

1977 5,342 389 212

1978 5,408 399 204

1979 5,479 426 217

1980 5,536 438 220

1981 5,581 452 228

1982 5,638 471 220

Change over the year:

1976 48 16 9

1977 71 9 - 3

1978 66 10 - 8

1979 71 27 13

1980 57 12 3

1981 45 14 8

1982 57 19 - 8

Change over the year:

1976 0.9 4.4 4.4

1977 1.3 2.4 -1.4

1978 1.2 2.6 -3.8

1979 1.3 6.8 6.4

1980 1,0 2.8 1.4

1981 0.8 32 3.6

1982 1.0 4.2 -3.5

820 738

828 754

850 778

871 791

898 784

924 797

945 811

973 838

654 9

634 10

625 10

626 7

605 5

570 5

552 5

543 4

237

242

238

243

244

248

238

237

1,580

1,589

1,603

1,611

1,628

1,653

1,659

1,648

1 4 8

151

159

160

164

168

207

210

457

457

465

486

497

501

473

480

8 16

22 24

21 13

27 - 7

26 13

21 14

28 27

- 2 0 1

- 9 0

1 - 3

-21 - 2

- 3 5 0

- 1 8 0

- 9 - 1

5

- 4

5

1

4

- 1 0

- 1

9

14

8

17

25

6

-11

3

8

1

4

4

3 9

b

3

0

8

21

11

4

- 2 8

b

7

1,0 2.2

2.7 3.2

2.5 1.7

3.1 -0.9

2.9 1.7

2.3 1.8

3.0 3.3

-3.1 .

-1.4 0.0

0.2 -30.0

-3.4 *

-5.8 .

-3.2 “

-1.6 “

2.1

-1.7

2.1

0.4

1.6

-4,0

-0.4

0 6

0.9

0.5

1.1

1,5

0.4

-0.7

2.0

5.3

0.6

2.5

2.4

23.2b

14

0.0

1.8

4.5

2.3

0.8

- 5.6b

1,5

Percentage distribution

Both sexes: Annual average:

1975 100.0 7.0

1976 100.0 7.2

1977 100.0 7.3

1978 100.0 7,4

1979 100.0 7.8

1980 100.0 7.9

1981 100.0 8.1

1982 100.0 84

Male: Change over the year:

1975 1000 6.3

1976 100.0 6.6

1977 100,0 6,6

1978 100.0 6.6

1979 100,0 6.7

1980 100.0 6.9

1981 100.0 7.1

1982 100.0 7.4

Female: Change over the year:

1975 100.0 8.0

1976 100.0 8.2

1977 100.0 8.4

1978 100,0 8.7

1979 100.0 9.4

1980 100,0 9.6

1981 100.0 9.7

1982 100.0 9.8

3.9

4.1

4.0

3.8

4,0

4.0

4.1

3.9

6.0

6.2

6.1

5.8

6.1

6,2

6.3

6.1

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.5

157

15.7

159

16.1

16.4

16.7

16.9

17.3

14,1

14,3

14.6

14.6

14.3

14.4

14.5

14.9

12.5

12.0

11.7

11.6

11.0

10.3

9.9

9.6

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

4.5

4.6

4,5

4,5

4.5

4,5

4.3

4.2

303

30.1

30.0

29.8

29.7

29.9

29.7

29.2

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.7

3.7

8.7

8.7

8.7

9.0

9.1

9.0

8.5

8.5

12.4

12.2

12.2

12.5

12.6

12.6

12.7

12.9

14,0

14.3

14.6

14.6

14.3

14.4

146

15.0

10.0

9.7

9.6

9.6

9.1

8.5

8.4

8.1

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

6.7

6.8

6.7

6.9

6,8

6.9

6.6

6.5

34.9

34.5

34,4

34,3

34,3

34.4

34.2

33.9

2.9

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.5

3.4

6.3

6.3

6.2

6.5

6.7

6.7

6.3

6.3

21.2

21.6

22.0

21.9

22.3

23.1

23,6

24.0

14,4

14,3

14.5

14.7

14.3

14.3

14.4

14.6

16.8

15.9

15.1

14,8

14.2

13.1

12,3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0,0

0.0

0.9

0.9

0,8

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.6

22.4

22,9

22,8

22.7

22,3

22.6

22.7

2,7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

4.1

12.8

12,6

12,7

12.9

12,8

12,7

11.8

12.0 0.0 0.6 22.0 4.3 12.0

a

The Occupational Classlficatlons for the Labour Force Survey were revised in January 1981 to correspond to the Occupational Classtflcatlons used {n the 1980

Population Census “Workers In mining and quarrying occupations” have been reclassified as “Mlnln~ workers, ” and “SweeDers and oarbaoe men, Dreviouslv

listed as “Protective service and service workers” are classified as “Labourers” in the current survey-

. . u

bAs of January 1981, there were 320,000 “Sweepers and garbage men, ” 100,000 male and 230,000 female,

Take the above explanation into consideration when the difference or percentage for year. to.year change of monthly estimates are used

SOURCE “Annual Report of the Labour Force Survey, ’ Statlstlcs Bureau, Off Ice of the Prime Mlnlster, Japan, 1982
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment • 773

Table 46.—Employed Persons and Employees by Occupation,

Japan (ten thousand persons) —Continued

Employees: Farmers, Workers in Craftsmen

Clerical lumber- transport and Protective

Professional Managers and men, and and commu- production service workers

and technical and related Sales fisher. Minin g nication process and

Year Total workers officials workers worker s m e n workers occupations workers Labourers service workers

427 41

448 41

463 43

470 40

476 38

497 40

506 43

537 41

9

9

10

7

5

4

4

4

220

225

222

226

226

229

220

220

1,216

1,224

1,235

1,233

1,237

1,260

1,272

1,269

132

135

140

141

144

148

184

187

315

315

317

331

336

342

317

315

205 775

214 783

211 803

201 818

215 844

217 867

226 886

217 909

9 8

- 3 20

- 1 0 15

14 26

2 23

9 19

- 9 23

21 0

15 2

7 - 3

6 - 2

21 2

9 3

31 - 2

0

1

- 3

- 2

- 1

0

0

5

- 3

4

0

3

- 9

0

8

11

- 2

4

23

12

- 3

3 0

5 2

1 14

3 5

4 6

36b 25b

3 - 2

4 4 1 0

-1. 4 2 6

- 4 7 1 9

7.0 3 2

09 27

4.1 2 2

- 4 0 2 6

4 9 0 0

33 4.9

1.5 -7.0

1.3 -5.0

4.4 5,3

1.8 7.5

61 – 4.7

23

-1.3

1.8

0 0

1.3

-3.9

0 0

07

0.9

-0.2

0.3

19

10

- 0 2

23 0 0

3.7 0.6

0 7 4.4

2.1 1.5

28 18

24.3b

7.3b

16 - 0 6

*

.

-30.0

.

.

.

.

Percentage distribution

Both sexes: Change over the year (%):

1975 1000 8.3 56

1976 100.0 8.5 58

1977 1000 85 56

1978 1000 8.7 53

1979 1000 9.1 55

1980 100.0 92 55

1981 100.0 93 56

1982 1000 9 6 5 3

Male:

1975 100 0 6 8 7 8

1976 100 0 7 1 8.1

1977 100 0 7 0 7.9

1978 100 0 6 9 7.6

1979 100 0 7 1 8 0

1980 100 0 7.2 7 9

1981 1000 7 4 8 1

1982 100 0 7 7 7 6

Female:

1975 1000 116 0 9

1976 100.0 11 5 10

1977 100.0 11 7 0 9

1978 1000 12.2 0 7

1979 1000 13.1 0 8

1980 100.0 130 0.8

1981 1000 131 0 9

1982 100.0 132 0 8

0 2

0 2

0,3

0 2

01

01

01

01

60

61

59

59

5.8

5.8

5.4

5.4

334

330

328

32.5

31.9

31.7

31.5

31.0

11 7 11

121 1.1

123 11

124 1.1

123 10

125 1.0

125 11

131 10

3.6 8.6

3.6 8.5

3 7 8.4

3.7 8.7

37 8.7

37 86

4.6 7 9

4.6 7.7

12.1 1 3

12.5 1 3

1 2 9 1.3

1 2 8 1.2

12.8 1.1

13.0 1,1

1 3 0 1.3

1 3 7 1.2

0.4

04

0 4

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

8 2

8.3

82

8.4

8.2

82

78

77

37.5

36.9

367

36.5

36.4

36.1

35.8

35.6

3.5

3 5

3 7

3.6

3.5

3 6

42

4.0

6.3

6.2

6 0

6 4

6 4

6 4

6 0

5.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0 0

0 0

0.0

1.5

1.4

1,2

1.1

1.2

1,0

0.9

0.9

24.6

249

248

24.5

23.3

23.2

23.3

22.4

3 7 13.7

4 0 13.3

3 8 133

3 9 13.4

4.0 13.1

4 0 12,9

5.3 114

5.6 112

‘The Occupational Classtflcat!ons for the Labour Force Survey were revised In January 1981 to correspond to the Occupational Classiflcatlons used In the 1980

Po~ulatlon Census Workers In mlnlng and quarrying occupations” have been reclassified as “Mlnlng Workers “ and “Sweepers and garbaae men” orevlouslv Ilsted

as ‘Protect tve se rvlce and sew{ ce wo~kers’ are cl a~s! fled as “ Labou rers’ I n the current survey

.

bAs of January 1981, there were 320,000 “Sweepers and garbage men, ” 100,000 male and 230,000 female.

Take the above explanation Into consideration when the difference or percentage for year-to-year change of monthly estimates are used

NOTE Employees are the subset of employed persons that IS not self-employed

SOURCE Annual Report of the Labour Force Survey, ” Statlstlcs Bureau, Off Ice of the Prime Mlmster Japan, 1982
174 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

in large firms.98 Because of that system, nonetheless, Japanese employers are less free than

U.S. employers to lay off personnel. They have

an incentive to minimize hiring of “regular”

employees, and to increase use of others whose

ranks can more easily be cut (see tables 46 and

47).

Note that U.S. employers have increasingly resorted to the use of temporary personnel.

The temporary-help service industry in the

United States has been growing, and the proportion of temporaries comprised of such professionals as engineers, scientists, and technicians has also been growing. (Statistics are

not available to show trends for manufacturing industries alone.) As noted by the National

Association of Temporary Services:

By hiring temporaries, companies can cut

staff without layoffs. They can hire temporaries for short-term projects too large or too specialized for their permanent staff to handle.99

Because adopting PA raises companies’ fixed

costs, many of them might seek to increase

reliance on temporaries or part-time personnel, where feasible, to lessen their vulnerability

to downturns.

‘aSee Robert E. Cole, “Participation and Control in Japanese

Indust~, ” paper prepared for Conference on Productivity, Ownership, and Participation, Agency for International Development, U.S. Department of Labor, May 1983.

——

‘Sam Sacco, “The World of High-Tech Temporaries, ” Washington Post (Advertising Supplement), Apr. 24, 1983.
Ch. 4—Effects of Programmable Automation on Employment ● 175

.- —

Table 47. —Employed Persons by Industry and Status in Employment, Japan

(for employees, number of persons engaged in enterprise) (1982)

Employees

1-29 persons

-A1-4 5-29

Total Total person s persons

409 8

30

16

14

4,068

14

10

423

1,151

125

147

557

66

103

131

158

99

322

1,059

870

337

534

128

189

364

331

34

847

427

420

195

1,408

18

12

6

1,390

8

3

257

324

48

29

120

8

49

31

21

11

127

470

443

138

305

95

27

51

51

276

112

163

339

7

5

2

332

1 —

56

46

7

4

16

1

8

4

2

1

19

146

135

25

110

37

12

4

4

—

77

31

45

—

1,069

11

7

5

1,058

7

3

201

278

40

26

103

7

40

27

19

10

108

324

309

114

195

58

15

47

46

—

199

82

118

30 persons and over 500 persons and over —

30-99 100-499 500-999 1,000 persons Government

Total persons person s Total

2,18 4

6

3

3

2,178

6

6

164

825

77

117

437

58

54

100

137

88

194

583

423

198

225

32

160

263

240

23

329

120

209

— —.—

632

3

2

2

628

3

2

78

220

33

25

91

7

24

25

25

10

71

150

139

73

66

16

11

47

46

1

127

48

79

591

2

1

1

589

2

1

38

226

28

29

106

11

17

29

34

16

64

149

126

62

63

9

23

53

51

1

119

46

73

—

962

1

961

1

3

48

378

17

64

239

40

13

46

78

61

59

284

159

63

96

7

125

163

142

21

83

26

57

Percent male

persons and over employees

184 778 498

6

— 1

5

183 777 492

— 1

3 —

10 38

77 301 1

5 12

13 51

42 197 —

4 36

5 8

12 35 —

12 66

8 53

17 42 1

55 229 5

42 117 3

19 45 —

23 72 3

2 5

12 113 2

16 148 50

15 127 39

— 20 11

25 57 241

9 17 194

17 40 47

195

71 20

7273

73.81

8000

7500

58.33

8750

73.01

8106

8325

8750

8286

7273

8868

6787

10000

—

—
176 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 47.—Employed Persons by Industry and Status in Employment, Japan—Continued

(for employees, number of persons engaged in enterprise) (1982)

Self. employed workers Employees (regrouped)

Regular employees

Ordinary

With Without Family regular Temporary Day

Industry Total Total employees employees workers Total Total employees Directors employees Iabourers

Percent male

5,638

502

484

18

5,136

46

10

541

1,380

208

166

614

67

127

143

175

102

392

1,501

1,296

376

919

237

206

382

349

34

1,065

510

554

195

943

240

237

3

702

18

—

88

161

65

13

40

1

16

8

15

1

44

258

246

24

222

67

13

15

15

—

162

66

96

—

193 750

7 234

6 232

1 2

186 516

2 16

— —

37 51

29 132

5 60

2 10

10 30

— —

5 10

2 5

2 13

1 1

12 32

77 181

75 171

8 16

67 155

33 34

2 11

2 12

2 12

— —

39 123

19 46

19 77

— —

587

232

231

1

355

13

—

31

68

18

6

17

1

9

4

2

1

26

183

179

16

163

41

4

3

3

—

56

17

39

—

4,098

30

16

14

4,068

14

10

423

1,151

125

147

557

66

103

131

158

99

322

1,059

870

337

534

128

189

364

331

34

847

427

420

195

3,692

20

10

10

3,672

13

9

346

1,053

110

138

520

64

95

125

142

94

284

948

765

323

442

95

183

350

317

33

767

396

371

184

1) ., 60.98 68,61

9) 61.23 45.96

1 2 ) 7068 57.50

14) : : : : 73.23 75.00

1 5 ) 74.83 62.50

16) : : : : : : : : : : 53.14 20.00

17) 80.39 10000

82.9

96.55

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

100.00

3,399

18

9

10

3,380

12

9

299

978

101

131

490

62

85

115

137

91

257

830

659

278

381

85

171

339

306

32

727

381

346

184

294 278

2 3

1 2

— 1

292 275

1 1

1 —

47 25

75 75

9 11

7 7

31 29

3 1

11 5

10 6

5 13

3 4

28 29

118 90

106 84

45 10

61 74

10 26

12 5

11 11

11 10

— 1

39 64

14 27

25 37

— 8

127

6

3

3

121

1 —

51

24

5

2

7

—

2

1

3

1

9

22

21

4

18

7

—

3

3

—

16

4

12

3

64.93 17,55 69.40 68,82 6781 79,93 26.98

34.85 17.65 65.94 70.18 69.33 82.67 18.67

43.33 23.53 73.25 76.92 76.12 83.87 20.69

7000 22.22 75.73 78.95 77.65 81.82 40.00

60.00 25.00 77.10 79.20 79.13 80.00 16.67

92.31 – 56.96 62.68 61.31 80.00 7.69

10000 — 80.81 84.04 83.52 100.00 25.00

50.39

25.00

2857

5000

Percent female

1) ., ., 39.03 31.39 16.58 35.07 82.28 34.60 31.20 32.16 20.07 73.02 49.61

9) : : : : : : : : : 38,77 54.04 3.45 65.15 82.35 34,06 29.72 30.67 17.33 81.33 75.00

12) ... ., 2915 42,50 – 56,66 82.35 26.75 23,27 23.67 16,13 79,31 71.43

14) 26.77 18.70 – 30.00 77.78 23.30 21,05 21.18 18,18 60,00 50.00

15) : : : : : : : : : : : : : 25.17 25.00 — 40,00 100.00 23.66 20.00 20.87 10.00 66.67 100.00

16) . . . . . . . 4629 80.00 — 7.69 100.00 43.04 37.32 38.69 20.00 92.31 66.67

1 7 ) 18.63 — — — 100.00 18.18 15.96 16.48 — 75.00 100.00

1 ) All industries 11) Chemical and related products 18) Other manufacturing 25) Transport, communication,

2) Agriculture and forestry 12) Metal and machinery 19) Wholesale, retail trade, finance,

3) Agriculture

electrlcity, gas water, steam

13) Iron, steel and nonferrous insurance and real estate and hot water supply

4) Forestry and hunting metal industries 20) Wholesale and retail trade 26) Transport and communication

5) Nonagriculture industries 14) Fabricated metal products 21) Wholesale trade 27) Electricity, gas, water, steam

6) Fisheries and aquiculture 15) Machinery, weapons, and 22) Retail trade

7) Mining

and hot water supply

precision machine 23) of which Eating and drinking 28) Services

8) Construct Ion 16) Electrical machinery, equipment place 29) Professional services

9) Manufacturing and supplies 24) Finance, Insurance and real 30) Other services

10) Textile mill products 17) Transportation equipment estate 31) Government

SOURCE ‘Annual Report of the Labour Force Survey, ” Statistics Bureau, Off Ice of the Prime Mlnlster, Japan, 1983
Chapter 5

The Effects of

Programmable Automation on

the Work Environment
Contents

Page

summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......................179

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .....................179

Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....................180

OTA Work Environment Case Studies . ......................,......183

Case l–Small Metalworking Shops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185

Case 2–Agricultural Equipment . . . . . . . ................,..........186

Case 3–Commercial Aircraft . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...187

Case 4–The Auto Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

Case Study Themes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189

Work Environment Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........191

Organization and Nature of Work... . .............................191

Changing Skill Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..........194

Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . ., $ . . . . . . . . . . 195

Occupational Safety and Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196

Labor-Management Relations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204

European and Japanese Experiences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......209

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .....................209

Norway and Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...........210

West Germany. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...............212

Appendix 5A.-Methodology Employed in OTA Case Studies of the

Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment . . . 213

Case l–Small Metalworking Shops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213

Agricultural Equipment Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

Commercial Aircraft Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 214

The Auto Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215

Tables

Table No. Page

48. Characteristics of Small Metalworking Shops Studied by OTA . .....,183

49. General Characteristics of Manufacturing Firms Studiedly OTA ....184

50. GM Robot Safety Standards: Suggested Safeguards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197

51. Employed Wage and Salary Workers Represented by

Labor Organizations by Occupation and Industry, May 1980 . . . . . . . 207

52. Workers’ Technology Bill of Rights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208
————

Chapter 5

The Effects of Programmable

Automation on the Work Environment

.— —— — — —

Summarv

A number of factors determine the impacts

of programmable automation (PA) on the work

environment, such as how the technologies

are designed and applied, the strategies employed to introduce them, and management’s

goals for automating. In general, the introduction of PA tends to improve the work environment. However, it has the potential to create

new situations that are stressful or monotonous, resulting in negative psychological effects on the work force. PA offers a wide range

of choices concerning its use—choices that, if

made well, will help to ensure that PA is applied in ways that will maximize its potential

for affecting the workplace positively.

Nothing inherent in automated technology

makes a particular form of work organization

‘‘imperative’ PA affords many ways of organizing work and designing jobs. For this

reason, it is possible to design and apply technology so that it will enhance, rather than detract from, the work environment, and to

search for ways to design jobs that are compatible with both technology and the humanization of work. The search for such compatibility will be complicated by the potential

tradeoff between conventional concepts of production efficiency and more complex concepts

of worker satisfaction. There is some, but limited, evidence that using PA to organize work

in ways that would enhance the work environU

ment would lead to increased overall efficiency and a more motivated work force.

In the firms visited for the OTA work environment case studies, the implementation of

PA made some jobs, such as maintenance,

more challenging, and some, such as spot welding, less physically taxing. Other jobs, such

as operating a numerically controlled (NC)

machine, were less challenging when compared

with operating conventional machine tools.

Some jobs had high levels of stress due to the

nature of the equipment (i.e., complex, highly

integrated, and expensive), and to the relative

lack of worker autonomy in controlling the

content and pace of work.

Labor-management relations play an important role in the introduction of new technology. Using collective bargaining, organizing,

and political strategies, unions in the United

States have attempted to minimize what are

perceived to be the socially harmful effects of

new technologies on the labor force. Their

efforts have generally been directed toward

easing the adjustment process rather than retarding the process of change. Japan and

many Western European countries rely on a

number of government and organized labor

mechanisms for dealing with the introduction

of new technology and its effects on the workplace.

Introduction

Programm able automation has the potential tasks and is applied in ways that provide varito enhance the work environment in manufac- ety and opportunities for decisionmaking in

turing. It will do so if it reduces the need for the workplace. As work becomes increasingworkers to undertake hazardous or unpleasant ly automated, it is important to consider the

179
180 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

role people will play relative to equipment, and

how we as a society will define and oversee

that role.

The purpose of this chapter is to describe

some of the effects on the manufacturing work

environment arising from the introduction and

use of PA, and to discuss some of the ways

in which workers are likely to be affected—

physically and psychologically. The approach

is different from that usually taken in discussing PA technologies, their benefits, and their

costs. While acknowledging the economic and

technical issues surrounding PA development

and use, the chapter focuses on the experiences

and concerns of the people working with the

technologies daily. These concerns seldom

emerge in studies of R&D and industry characteristics, but they suggest additional social

costs and benefits beyond the more obvious

--

ones associated with changes in the number

and types of jobs.

Attention to how PA affects the work environment may gain new urgency in the future

due to reduced job mobility in manufacturing.

As chapter 4 suggests, workers who are unhappy about their working conditions in the

wake of new technology may have less freedom to change jobs because of reductions in

production employment, changes in the occupational mix, and other developments constraining job opportunities. If the potential for

job mobility decreases, the characteristics of

remaining and new manufacturing jobs will

become increasingly important, creating new

imperatives for developing the potential capabilities of the technology to improve the work

environment.

Background

The effects of PA on the manufacturing

work environment in the United States must

be considered within the context of traditional

views of technological change. The apprehension surrounding technological progress and

its potential to change the fabric of society is

not new. What is different about current attitudes concerning new technology is directly

related to its flexibility, its diverse applications, the large numbers of people that will be

affected, and the social and political climate

in which it is being introduced.

As early as the mid-1850’s, America was

viewed by Europeans as a country that eagerly and easily embraced technology as a replacement for manual labor. This was in stark

contrast to the open resistance to industrial

progress experienced in Europe. The American

capacity for rapid innovation was variously attributed to such diverse factors as its public

education system, a scarcity of labor, its democratic institutions, its utilitarian attitudes,

an abundance of natural resources, and the

enterprising spirit of its citizens.1

However, contrary to this idyllic view of

American industrial progress as perceived by

foreign visitors, historians record that even in

the 1850’s, technological change in the United

States did not occur without very substantial

costs to its citizens. For example, the work

lives of skilled craftsmen were changed greatly

through adjustment to the new requirements

of industrialization, such as increased regimentation and less individuality. Unskilled workers were also affected adversely, since their

skills were interchangeable and there were

thus fewer opportunities for wage increases

and other benefits.2

In the late 19th century, the principles of

scientific management proposed by Frederick

‘Merritt Roe Smith, Harpers Ferry Armory and the New

Technology: The Challenge of Change (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1977).

‘Ibid.
—— —

Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the

W. Taylor attempted to rationalize the production process by determining the “one best

way’ to do a job. * In addition, these principles

helped to form the view that efficiency depends on the degree to which management

controls both the production process and the

workers. In many manufacturing settings,

vestiges of Taylorism still exist in a top-down

style of management control characterized by

rigidly defined tasks, attempts to minimize

errors through increased automation, and

minimal worker involvement in workplace

decisions.

Today, it is generally recognized that technological developments tend to continually

outpace the capacity of individuals and social

systems to adapt.3 This period of adjustment

may be characterized by considerable tension

between management and labor.

One of the principal benefits of computerized manufacturing technology is that it offers a wide range of choices for system design

and implementation. With respect to the problems encountered in earlier technological

change, one author commented:

The changes and disruptions that an evolving technology repeatedly caused in modern

life were accepted as givens or inevitable simply because no one bothered to ask whether

there were other possibilities.4

The very flexibility of PA provides a range of

choice, not only in the equipment configuration, but also in the organization and management of production. As stated by a contemporary British researcher:

We are not compelled to follow the path we

have followed so long, of subordinating work

to the machine, and fragmenting it, until the

best thing we can do with the jobs that remain is to automate them out of existence.

We can if we wish provide a path through

*Frederick w, Taylor (1856-1915) revolutionized American

factory production with his time and-motion studies. This standardization of tasks, known as Taylorism, left workers with little or no opportunity to exercise either control or judgment over

their work or workplace.

‘See, for example, Langdon Winner, Autonomous Technology

(Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press, 1977).

‘Winner, op. cit.

.

Work Environment ● 181

which human skill is preserved, . . . by evolving into new skills in relation to new machines.5

While the design of a machine or system establishes a basis for its effects on the work

environment, the specific circumstances in

which the technology is introduced also play

a crucial role in shaping the environment of

the automated workplace. In practice, the impact of a programmable system is influenced

by an array of “environmental” factors, such

as managerial goals, the age and physical layout of facilities, the types of technology

already in use, the ways in which work has

been (and will be) organized, management policies and practices, the attitudes of workers,

interpersonal relationships, and the character

of labor-management relations. This context,

together with the technical capabilities and actual performance of the new system, determines the effect of computerized automation

on the work environment.

The choices made for system design and implementation reflect value judgments. The

minimal attention devoted to work environment issues in this country reflects the view

that production efficiency is a function of

equipment design and selection, and a judgment that worker attitudes are secondary at

best. On a more basic level, value judgments

pertaining to workplace issues reflect a disparity in available evidence. It is relatively easy

to measure the performance characteristics of

a machine; it is difficult to measure reliably

the effects of equipment designs and configurations on worker attitudes and related

changes in productivity. The difficulty increases as the organization of production

changes to accommodate new processes and

products. Such organizational changes are central to the success of PA; they also distinguish

the work environment effects of PA from

those of more incremental changes in manufacturing technology.

How workers are affected by automation

depends very much on their individual person5H. H. Rosenbrock, “Robots and People, ” Measurement and

Control, vol. 15, March 1982, p. 112.
182 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—— . . . — —.—— — — —

alities, expectations, and needs; it is therefore

difficult to generalize about what is a “good”

work environment for the introduction of PA.

As one author recently pointed out:

Workers are not all alike; they have different needs, interests and motivations. Moreover, these characteristics constantly change

over the career of each worker 6

?. . . .

However, there are some characteristics that

are generally recognized as having a positive

effect on the work environment. Among them

are fair wages and benefits, job security, a

clean and safe workplace, interesting work,

some control over the pace of work, the ability to make decisions concerning how work is

performed, recognition for work done well, opportunities for personal growth and advancement, and good relationships with peers and

supervisors.

Recognizing some of the important characteristics of a positive work environment, and

recognizing that these can help to alleviate the

tensions of a rapidly changing workplace, new

technology can be utilized in ways that facilitate a harmonious interaction between people

and machines. Achieving such harmony is the

goal of interdisciplinary research in so-called

sociotechnical systems. The literature on sociotechnical systems discusses ways of designing jobs and changing work methods to consider both the social system of the work environment and the technical system of production simultaneously in order to optimize the

relationship between the two.7

It is possible to design and apply technology

so that it will enhance the work environment,

and to explore ways of designing jobs that accommodate both the technology and the needs

of workers. The challenge is to introduce new

technologies in ways that consider the economic and social impacts more equally. However, there are conflicting interests involved

in considering simultaneously the economic,

‘James O’Toole, Making Ame~”ca Work, Productivity and

Responsibility (New York: Continuum, 1981).

‘William A. Pasmore and John J. Sherwood (eds.), Sociotechnical Systems: A Sourcebook (La Jolla, Calif.: University

Associates, Inc., 1978).

social, and technical aspects of new technology. One recent study of the impact of

microelectronics on the workplace concluded:

It is not yet clear just what are the economic costs of careful, or socially acceptable, applications of the chip. Nor is it obvious that

the normal market forces, or union pressures,

will bring out the best in microelectronics for

society.8

Okun has suggested that pursuit of an efficient economy creates inequalities, and society faces a tradeoff between equality and efficiency. If both are valued, and neither takes

absolute priority over the other, then compromises ought to be made in places where they

conflict. 9 In the case of the effects of PA on

the work environment, the failure to balance

both social and economic questions as part of

the overall decision to automate w-ill mean that

the potential for PA to improve working life

will not be realized. In the short term, only the

economic costs of considering the social aspects may be recognized; over the long term,

however, the cost of an unhappy worker may

be realized as lower productivity. The concern

extends beyond the individual PA user into

a potential social services problem that could

eventually affect whole communities.

The remainder of the chapter is divided into

three sections. The first describes four OTA

case studies of PA in selected manufacturing

environments and discusses the principal

themes that emerged from these studies. The

next section discusses some of the impacts of

PA on different aspects of the work environment, incorporating material from the case

studies where it exemplifies these impacts.

The final section provides an overview of approaches to work environment issues in Japan,

Norway, Sweden, and West Germany and the

experiences of these countries with the implementation of new technologies.

‘The Impact of Ch”p Technology on Conditions and Quti”ty

of Work, Worldwide Search and Exm”nation of Evidence and

Influential Opinion, Report No. 1144, Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, The Hague, 1982, p. 2.

‘Arthur M. Okun, Equah”ty and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff

(Washington, D. C.: The Brookings Institution, 1975).
Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 183

—

OTA Work Environment Case Studies

In order to investigate the impact of PA on

actual work environments in manufacturing

settings, four case studies were conducted in

companies that are leading users of PA—one

each in the automobile, aircraft, and agricultural implements industries, and one encompassing a group of seven small metalworking

shops. The three large companies studied were

selected out of a list of approximately 30 firms

that was compiled in consultation with a number of leading trade associations. The small

metalworking shops were chosen after discussions with knowledgeable individuals and organizations in New England, the geographic

region selected. While the companies are all

advanced PA users, they differ in several important respects, including company size,

product batch size, union representation, financial health, current level of market demand, and geography (see tables 48 and 49). *

*NOn~ of the participating companies is identified by name.

One of the companies requested this courtesy, and OTA decided

to follow it throughout.

Table 48.–Characteristics of Small Metalworking Shops Studied by OTA

—

Alpha Beta – Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta — —

Tot al

empIoyees 75 19 74 16 10 200 48

-—

Employees on

shop floor 60 16 60 15 6 130 40

Annual sales $8.2M $900,000 ‘$4.5M $600,000 $300! 000 $25M $2.75M -

NC and CNC 21 NC-and 2 CNC lathes 3 CNC punch 6 CNC 4 CNC millers 12 CNC lathes 21 NC and

machine tools C N C 1 CNC miller presses 1 CNC lathe 2 CNC vertical CNC machines;

16 NC millers 1 CNC laser miIIers more than half

cutter 30 NC machines of these are CNC;

5 CNC press 2 CNC in

brakes prototyp e

Year company

founde d 1969 1940 1973 1972 1974 1945 1942

Year first

NC or CNC

machine tool

purchase d 1974 1966 1976 1976 1979 1957 ca 1966

Principal MiIitary Varied” Mostly Electronics, Aircraft, Aircraft. Electronics,

client aircraft, electronics, electronics aircraft medica l both military airrcraft

Industries medica l hydraulics & commercial

etc

Programin g Digital Genesis Webber Webber Bridgeport Digital General

system “APT” “Encode” “Prompt” “Prompt” “Easy Cam” “APT” Numeric

“Numeridex ”

Age of

programin g

system 3-4 years 6 years 3 years 6 months 2 months 11 years 1 year

Lot size

rang e

a

10150 25-1.000 10-2.500 100-5,000 50-1,000 1-1,000 1-1oo

Average or

typical lot

size” 50 250-500 100 250-500 250 100 50

Employment Steady Stable for Steady FIuctuates. Growth, Cycllcal, Stable

level growt h 10 years, growt h down from a recent twice as many

over time before that peak of 19 layoffs employees i n

steady growth in 1980 late 1960’s

Constant for last

7 years

Size of

shop in

square feet 23,000 10,000 30.000 8,000 2,500 66,000 28,000

a

Lot size f!gures art? rouqh est!mates only

SOURCE Off Ice of Technology Assessment (data current as of April 1983)
184 Ž Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Company size 10-200 Components plant—10,000 40,000 in commercial Plant employs

at capacity aircraft division 4,000

Tractor assembly—2,500 630 In NC machine shop .

Sales 300,000 to Company agricultural equipment Company claimed 560/o Company sales over

market share 25 million sales over $4 billion in of the market in 1981; $10 million in

1981; dropped in 1982, but in 1982, 48170 1982

share of farm equipment

market climbed

Unionized No Yes Yes Yes

Financial Good Dominant in Industry Dominant in industry Improving over

health recent times

Market Tends to fluctuate

demand with demand

for clients’

products

Geography Within an hour of

major Industrial

center in the

East

Slack Slack; operating at Recently picked

50% of capacity up

Small, Midwestern city

 ..

SOURCE Offtce of Technology Assessment (data current–as of April 1983)

Six technologies were studied-numerical

control (NC), flexible manufacturing systems

(FMS), management information systems,

automated materials handling, robots, and

computer-aided design (CAD).* NC machine

tools receive particular attention in the case

studies because they are among the oldest

modern examples of the application of digital

technology to manufacturing, dating from the

early 1950’s. As such, NC represents the backbone of computerized production equipment,

and is the most important application to date

of computers in small and medium batch machining. In addition, although other programmable technologies may monitor the activities

of workers or replace the worker entirely, NC

machine tools continue to require the presence

*A9 wa9 di9~s~ in Cli. 3, FMSS integrate NC and other

PA technologies into a larger computer-controlled system that

is the prototype of the automatic factory. Management information systems collect, transmit, and process data in a way

that provides more comprehensive and immediate information

to management about operations in both batch and mass pro

duction industries. Robots represent a versatile technology that

can be used in a wide range of production settings either as

stand-alone machines or as part of a larger system. CAD exemplifies the use of computers to transform the design process and the organization of the production process.

Medium-sized west Within hour of

coast city major industrial

center in East

of an operator and significantly change the

character of the person-machine interaction.

The changes seen in the NC operator’s job

have implications for other situations in which

the introduction of PA may change the nature

of the interaction between person and machine. Thus, the work environment experience

with NC may provide paradigms for other PA,

including flexible manufacturing systems as

well as nonproduction PA technologies.

The case studies are based on 3- to 8-day

visits by two researchers to the three large

companies, and l-day visits to each of the

seven small machine shops. The aim of the

case studies was to identify qualitatively some

of the important ways in which PA is currently affecting the work environment in selected

sites; quantitative analysis was not feasible

given the small number and the diversity of

observations.* (See app. 5A for method of

study.) A brief summary of each of the four

*’l”he smple of people interviewed was relatively small ~d

nonrandom, and the interviews e lored a variety of issues within a defined range, rather than ‘Tollowing a rigid format,.
— — -

Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 185

— — —

case studies follows; a section is included

describing the principal themes that emerged.*

Case l—Small Metalworking Shops

This case study investigates the introduction and use of numerical control in seven

small metalworking shops—six machining

shops and a sheet metal fabrication shop (see

table 48). All of the shops work under contract

to other companies (mainly aerospace, electronics, and defense industries), and have no

commercial product of their own. The central

production technology in these plants is NC,

currently one of the most mature and sophisticated of the PA technologies, in which a preprogrammed code directs the operation of a

machine tool by means of a controller. Generally, these machine instructions, or “part programs, ” are prepared remotely by a part programer. Computerized numerical control, a

refinement of NC that was developed in the

mid-1970’s, links a computer to the machine

controller. This technical change brings about

new organizational possibilities because the

machine instructions can now be altered (edited), or even prepared, at the machine itself.

NC has a number of technical advantages

over conventional equipment-e. g., easier machining of complex parts, repeatability, fewer

fixtures and setups, and increased flow of production. In addition to these advantages, managers also cited two other motivations for installing NC equipment. One motivation was

to respond to the perceived shortage of qualified machinists by providing the ability to

transfer skills from the shop floor to a part

program, hence depressing the level of skill actually needed to operate the machine. The second motivation for acquiring NC was to gain

better control over shop operations. The predictability of the technology led to more accurate production cost estimates when bidding

for new jobs and more reliable estimates of delivery times.

*The contractor report, “Automation and the Workplace:

Case Studies on the Introduction of Programmable Automation in Manufacturing, ” will be available subsequent to publication of this report.

Case Study Conclusions

By reorganizing production in such a way

as to centralize control and reduce the overall

skill requirements of the shop, these owners

have brought about changes in the work environment that substantially reduce the attractiveness of machining jobs, especially for

skilled machinists. In general, less experienced

workers and those whose previous work experience was largely on NC preferred NC, while

workers with high levels of skill and extensive

backgrounds on conventional equipment did

not like NC machines unless they had become

involved in programing. When the planning

function is removed from the shop floor and

transferred to a programer, machining work

is transformed in such a way as to be unattractive to the most skilled members of the

work force –although the usefulness of high

skill levels was still emphasized by most of the

shopowners interviewed. While reducing machinist intervention in the production process

helps to guarantee that a minimum standard

of quality will be met, it also limits the ingenuity and skill that might help to achieve a higher

standard of quality. If the input of the person

closest to the production process is substantially reduced or even eliminated, the loss in

terms of the quality of production could be sizable, particularly when a skilled worker is operating the machine.

Based on the sample of small shops visited,

four strategies that would enhance the work

environment appeared technically feasible and

desirable from the point of view of workers on

the shop floor:

1.

2.

Programing of machines by their operators, except in cases where there are

compelling technical reasons for doing

otherwise (e.g., some programs are very

complex, and writing them may require

several hours of careful expert attention,

away from the distractions of the shop

floor).

Increased control over the editing of programs by machinists who are at the

machine, watching the execution of the

program.
186 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace —.—.—— — —

3.

4.

Training in programing for machinists, including rotation of machinists through

the shop’s programing department.

Training in machining that includes substantial work on conventional machine

tools, and periodic rotation onto conventional machines to provide more challenge

and variety.

Each of these changes that would enhance

the quality of the work environment was present in an embryonic form in one or more of the

seven shops studied. They are thus clearly

technically feasible, since they have already

taken place in a very limited way. They may

also, in some cases, result in greater productivity. But it is also true that after a certain

point, increases in shop floor autonomy with

a view to improving the work environment

tend to conflict with the shopowner’s preferences for managing the business. At that

point, further improvements in the work environment come at the expense of centralized

control, which may also have implications for

production quality. The issue of control, of

course, is not peculiar to computerized automation in manufacturing settings; it represents one of the traditional workplace struggles between management and labor.

Case 2—Agricultural Equipment

Beginning in the early 1970’s, the company,

a midwestern manufacturer of agricultural implements and construction equipment, began

to install a wide variety of computer-based

systems in one of its principal businesses, the

manufacture of tractors. Today, the company

is regarded as one of the leading users of PA

in medium-batch manufacturing. This case

study focuses on two of the company’s plants

that have been widely recognized as pioneering automation efforts—the components plant

and the nearby tractor assembly plant. Three

major systems were selected for examination:

1) a management information system, particularly a labor reporting subsystem; 2) the

automated materials handling system in the

tractor assembly plant; and 3) the flexible

manufacturing system in the manufacturing

plant.

From management’s point of view, PA has

been vital to the company’s success in an increasingly competitive industry. The technology has resulted in increased flexibility to respond to rapidly shifting market conditions,

better product quality, and higher productivity. An important factor contributing to productivity improvement has been the transformation of what management saw as a series

of difficult-to-control, stop-and-go operations

into a more tightly controlled, centrally directed “even flow” of parts, suggestive of

operations in continuous-process industries.

Case Study Conclusions

The effects of increased automation on the

work environment seen in this case study fall

into four broad categories. The first covers effects that are the intended result of management’s desire for flexibility, rapid response,

and closer managerial control of operations.

For example, the ability of the company to

track parts through the production process

makes shop floor operations increasingly visible to middle- and upper-level managers, facilitating scheduling and making it increasingly possible to dictate the details of production

from a high level in the organization. This decreases autonomy for supervisors by limiting

their range of choices in certain scheduling and

personnel matters.

The second category of effects on the work

environment stems from the implementation

process, broadly construed. For example, the

disruption caused by downtime and scheduling irregularities resulting from the implementation and debugging process for highly

complex and integrated computerized systems

can degrade the work environment. The persistence of such problems over a period of

years, not just months, raises the possibility

that the debugging of one or another system

could become a fact of life-and of the work

environment-at technologically advanced

companies. Workers at this site were particularly affected by frequent downtime because
Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 187

of their incentive pay system. * This system

helps to create a highly motivated work force,

and employees covered by the incentive pay

system may use considerable ingenuity to

keep machines running. Machine downtime is

not welcomed by incentive workers, and most

of the workers interviewed expressed intense

frustration with automated systems that frequently broke down.

A third category of effects on the work environment is brought about by the complexity and highly integrated character of the capital-intensive installations. Maintenance

workers found their work on a computerized

system exciting and challenging (according to

one electrician: “This new technology is scary

as hell, but I love it”). However, the combined

effect of the high cost of the system and the

“domino effect’ of a machine or system failure

created considerable pressure as well. The integrated nature of the operation made the

failure of any machine linked to the larger system a more serious problem than the failure

of a stand-alone machine would have been. Additionally, most electricians interviewed felt

that the diagnostics now required more skill

than previously; however, the repairs were

often easier, particularly when they only involved changing a circuit board. Under these

conditions, collaboration increased among repairers and among different skilled trades.

The final category includes effects that

result from system designs that attempt (with

varying degrees of success) to minimize the necessity for operator intervention. One of the

problems mentioned most frequently by operators of flexible manufacturing systems—as

well as by maintenance workers on other high-

—— *The 9 System combines a standard base rate with a bonus

for production above the standard rate. An operator working

at ‘‘incentive pace” earns about 130 percent of the “standard’

base pay. The company aims to have production workers eligible for incentive pay about 85 percent of the time, the remaining 15 percent being set aside for ‘inherent delay, ” which

includes those parts of a job whose pace is out of the control

of the worker. During periods of inherent delay and downtime

the worker is paid the standard rate. The introduction of

automation can influence incentive pay in two ways: 1) by requiring determination of new incentive standards, and 2) by

changing the proportion of inherent delay and downtime on the

job.

ly integrated and expensive systems—is the

alternating boredom and pressure that characterize their jobs. The FMS clearly required

some operator input, yet it had not been designed to adequately acknowledge and accommodate that input; in addition, operator training may not have been sufficient.

Case 3–Commercial Aircraft

The manufacturer of commercial aircraft

that is the subject of this case study is a division of a larger aerospace corporation. Both

the division and its parent are widely regarded

as being at the cutting edge of both product

and process innovation in the aerospace industry. The case study has a dual focus: first, it

explores the use of computer technology to

revolutionize the organization of work, principally in the design and engineering of the airplane; then it looks at NC machining in a large

production machine shop. Since the NC machine shop is a production terminus of a

stream of data that flows from design to the

manufacture of a part, it is directly affected

by the organizational changes that are taking

place.

The company’s use of CAD has resulted in

a number of important benefits: 1) elimination

of routine work, 2) assured access to the most

up-to-date design, 3) reduction in errors, and

4) the ability to revise designs more frequently and to experiment more fully with design

alternatives. A central thrust is to link the

separate design, business, and manufacturing

computer systems into a centrally directed, integrated whole, and to thus move design decisions to a higher level in the organization. The

goal is to create a controllable “stream” of information governing the development and production of the airplane from the point at which

the airplane is initially designed to the point

at which it first lifts off the runway.

As in the case study of the small metalworking shops, the use of NC has made it possible

to remove from the shop floor much of the decisionmaking involved in part production, taking away a substantial amount of discretion

from those involved at the point of production,
188 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

and relocating it earlier in the design to build

process. Many of these decisions are now made

by programmers; however, the operator retains

the critical control over the speeds and feeds

at the machine.

Case Study Conclusions

The company goal to use CAD to establish

a stream of shared data has significant implications for the work environment. For example, the jobs of engineers at earlier points in

the design process will become broader and

more challenging; but there will be proportionately less opportunity for creative work by engineers at later points in the design process.

While this may be beneficial for the aircraft

design process overall (in particular, because

of the special concern for quality and reliability of aircraft, relative to other goods), it is likely to have a negative effect on middle-level

workers who have been accustomed to more

challenging work. Considerable amounts of

routine data-handling will be eliminated by the

establishment of shared data requirements

and the automation of data transmission between groups. In addition, there will be increased interdependence among various

groups and functions within the company as

each group spends more of its time working

with shared data.

Use of NC has a number of effects on the

work environment of machinists at this site.

NC has not eliminated the need for a skilled

operator, since skill is still required in the form

of alert supervision of the machine (rather than

continuous active intervention); yet the removal of a substantial part of the traditional machining work makes it more difficult for the

operator to remain engaged in the cutting

process. The amount of latitude that NC machinists have in the performance of their duties is significantly reduced if all but the most

routine programing is removed from the shop

floor; this is a major factor in the boredom

reported by operators.

The study found that interdependence has

increased in the machine shop, since there are

more support groups, e.g., programmers, involved in the production of any given part.

This means that a delay in any one area affects the operator’s ability to produce parts

quickly and efficiently. The case study also

found that the ability to dictate exactly how

the machinist job will be done makes it possible for management to track an individual’s

performance more closely. In addition, an electronic system makes certain aspects of shop

floor operations more visible to management.

The system enables a machinist to page a support group member and also monitors production at the 66 NC machines.

Case 4—The Auto Company

This case study examines the application of

robots to spot-welding operations in an auto

company’s assembly plant. In 1980, in response to the increase in consumer demand for

small cars, the company designed a new model

that required a $60 million retooling at the

plant visited. The bulk of the retooling took

place in the framing side of the body shop,

where sheet metal parts of the car are welded

together. In selecting machinery for its new

welding facilities, the company chose a system

that provides what is perhaps the most advanced frame welding technology available. It

involves a single fixture or “gate” that holds

the sides, underbody, and other parts in place

while eight robots apply spot-welds that set

the dimensions of the body. Most of the other

robots in the plant apply “re-spot” welds

which increase the mechanical strength of the

car.

The automated area consists of two major

components: 1) the subassembly areas where

parts of the sides and underbody are welded

together; and 2) the “main frame” line where

the sides, roof, and underbody are welded by

the robotic system and re-spot robots to form

the complete car body. The case study focused

on the side aperture area where parts are

welded together to make the right and left

sides of the car, and on the main frame line.

Sixty-four robots are located in these areas.

The robotic system has a number of major

technical and economic advantages over pre-
Ch. 5— The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 189

vious methods of welding: 1) the dimensional

consistency of the body is assured because

only a single gate is used for each car type;

2) the strength and quality of welded frames

are improved because there are fewer missed

welds, and the welds are placed identically in

each body; and 3) subsequent retooling costs

are substantially reduced by decreasing the

number of gates and clamps that have to be

purchased for each model.

Case Study Conclusions

Two important specific benefits resulting

primarily from automation were observed. The

first was that robots have eliminated a number

of physically demanding hand-welding jobs

that required operators to work in the midst

of sparks thrown off each time a weld was

made. The second benefit is that automation

has substantially increased the breadth, challenge, and interest of maintenance positions.

To some extent, welder repairmen have taken

on responsibilities traditionally handled by

basic tradesmen in that they maintain a wide

range of electrical, hydraulic, and robotic

equipment, and they also program the robots.

The corporate director of manufacturing

engineering regards welder repairmen as an

important part of the company’s move to increase productivity through combining job

classifications.

However, the work environment has deteriorated significantly for many production

workers and supervisors. An intensification of

work and an erosion of the quality of life on

the job for production workers in the body

shop stem from the fact that subassembly

jobs are now tied to a line. By tying subassembly work to a rhythm over which the worker

has no control, the automated system has

eliminated the principal feature of off-line jobs

that made them more attractive than line jobs.

Downtime on the automated system creates

stop-and-go pacing that is beyond the worker’s

control; it also creates a situation where the

subassembly and main frame lines are run

faster in order to keep up with the rest of the

plant. For repair supervisors, the responsibility for maintaining operation of the complex,

highly integrated production system creates

great stress.

It is important to note that these problems

arise not from automation or the introduction

of robots per se, but rather from the system

design and operating practices. Two aspects

of the design are especially important: the arrangement of successive subassembly operations in series, and the restriction of space for

storing parts between these operations. The

design decisions are complemented by the

operating practice of storing even fewer parts

between subassembly operations than space

allows. By minimizing such “banks,” manage

ment believes it can assure a steadier, higher

quality, and more efficient production flow.

Case Study Themes

At every company studied, a common theme

emerged: establishing more effective managerial control over the activities of the enterprise.

In the firms that produced parts in small and

medium batch sizes, PA was the centerpiece

of a strategy to establish a more managerially directed flow of parts through production,

in some cases approximating the even flow of

continuous-process industries. At the automaker, where the mass production of parts has

been carried out for years on a moving assembly line, the company sought to extend this

flow to the remaining off-line areas of the welding operation.

The aircraft company also sought to streamline the flow of information through design

and engineering. In addition, it wanted to

move decisionmaking to as early a point in the

design and manufacture of the airplane as possible. An important corollary of these changes

was minimizing human input. This extension

of control in design and production, in management’s view, makes possible a better coordination and a more efficient use of the firm’s resources. These organizational choices, however, have important consequences for the

work environment.

Because of the great variety of computerbased technologies, as well as the wide varia-
190 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— — — — .

tion among companies in terms of the environmental context into which these technologies

are placed, the findings of the four case studies

do not suggest any one generalized impact of

PA on the work environment. Instead, some

overall themes emerged to varying degrees

from the different companies studied:

●

●

●

●

●

Changes in skill requirements and occupational structure. —There was a tendency

to embody skill in machines or to move

skill to an earlier point in the design and

manufacturing process. In occupations

such as highly skilled machining this

meant that fewer skills would be required

on the job. Maintenance work, however,

tended to require more skills.

Training.–Some operators and maintenance workers expressed a strong desire

for more training that would allow them

more effectively to run or to repair the

machines to which they were assigned.

Increased interdependence.—The introduction of PA brought about a greater interdependence among production workers, greater collaboration among maintenance workers, and the necessity for increased cooperation between production

and maintenance workers.

Decreased autonomy.—Computer-based

automation is used in ways that result in

decreased autonomy for workers, stemming from the removal of production decisions from the shop floor, the electronic

monitoring of some work areas, and the

attempt on the part of management to establish an even flow of parts through the

plant and of information through the

company.

Boredom. -One of the consequences of

systems intended to minimize operator intervention is that machines may run for

longer, although not indefinite, periods of

time without active intervention by the

operator. For some machine operators,

boredom on the job has become a widespread complaint. Some maintenance

tasks, however, have become more chal-

●

●

●

●

●

System downtime. —Because of the complexity of programmable systems and

their high level of integration, the effects

of problems with any unreliable element

of the system tend to spread, affecting the

work pace of production workers and putting great pressure on those involved in

the maintenance of the system. Downtime

may decrease with better system design

and more reliable components.

Stress.—Two major sources of automation-related stress were identified: 1) working on very complicated, very expensive,

and highly integrated systems; and 2) the

lack of autonomy at work, extending in

some cases to computerized monitoring

by management.

Safety.–Some applications of PA make

the workplace safer, either by eliminating

hazardous jobs altogether or by allowing

the operator to stand farther from the

machine during operation. Other applications introduce hazards of their own, such

as automated carriers, clamps, and fixtures that move and close without direct

human initiation and sometimes without

warning. The net effect of PA, however,

is a reduction in traditional physical

hazards.

Cleaner and Lighter physical work for

operators.—Some forms of PA have reduced or eliminated heavy or dirty work.

In some cases, new jobs requiring physical labor are created in the place of the old,

heavier jobs.

Job security. –The combination of substantial layoffs at all the large companies

and the widespread perception among

workers that the introduction of computerized automation caused significant

displacement raised strong apprehensions

among workers.

Further information on these case study

themes will be included in the following section concerning impacts on work environment,

as well as in other chapters of the report where

appropriate.

lenging.
—

Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment • 191

Work Environment Impacts

The OTA work environment case studies

demonstrated some of the effects of various

PA systems in selected environments. Som e

recurrent themes emerged regarding the nature of those effects. This section examines

some of the broader work environment issues

within the categories of organization and nature of work, changing skill levels, training,

occupational safety and health, and labor-management relations.

Organization and Nature of Work

The ways in which work is organized, together with the specific design features of PA

technology, will help to govern the effects on

the work environment. In the short term, the

new and emerging technologies will be adapted

to traditional structures of work organization;

over the long term, the structures will change

to reflect the characteristics of the new technologies. While it is too early to predict how

these changes will develop, the experience to

date may offer some insights.

One of the most vivid examples of how the

organization of work in automated manufacturing can affect the quality of the work environment comes from the allocation of programing in an NC shop, as demonstrated in

the OTA case studies. The introduction of NC

machinery is usually accompanied by the development of a new programing department

and a new division of labor. The planning of

work becomes more centralized and is moved

off the shop floor, so that planning and execution become increasingly separated. From the

point of view of management, this results in

increased efficiency and control over the production process. However, whether or not production workers are permitted to edit programs on the shop floor, or in general engage

in planning, can determine whether their jobs

are routine and relatively boring or involve,

instead, an element of challenge and decisionmaking. The assignment of work is a function

of managerial choice, but it also reflects the

nature of the product. For example, in aircraft

manufacture, concerns for precision, reliability, and safety make control especially important. Other settings provide more latitude for

worker discretion.

The organization of work in ways that remove creative decisionmaking from jobs does

not only apply to production workers. It is also

reflected in the changes projected for engineering jobs at the aircraft manufacturer as CAD

is used more widely. The jobs done earlier in

the design-build process will be broader and

more technically detailed, while the need for

engineering skills later in the process will be

reduced. The result will be less autonomy and

decreased opportunities to contribute to the

production process in meaningful ways for engineers who are not performing the broad and

creative jobs at the beginning of the designbuild process. According to the director of the

CAD/CAM Integration Team:

Once the system is in place, most of the

decisions are made; so you’re taking away a

lot of individual decisions . . . whoever’s involved downstream is working in a lot more

controlled environment than he has in the

past.

It is generally agreed that there is nothing

inherent in automated technology that makes

a particular form of work organization “imperative. 10 For example, West German researchers describe an alternative job structure for

a flexible manufacturing system, although its

viability is yet to be proven long-term. 11 Under

the proposed alternative, the staff is composed

exclusively of skilled workers, such as specialists in machine tools. Some would have additional training in electronics. All or most of

the nonmachining tasks required by the FMS

could be performed by the operators, working

‘“Joel A. Fadem, “Automation and Work Design in the U. S.:

Case Studies of Quality of Working Life Impacts.” published

in ILO International Comparative Study, Federico Butera and

Joseph Thurman (eds.) (Amsterdam: North Holland, 1984).

1lChristoph Kohler and Rainer Schultz-Wild, “Flexible Manufacturing Systems—Manpower Problems and Policies,

presented at the 1983 World Congress on the Human Aspects

of Automation, Ann Arbor, Mich., August 1983.
192 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation.” Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

Photo credit: Beloit Corp

The dramatic change in the nature of engineering work is demonstrated in the three

photographs above. (Top) pencil-and-paper operation at the turn of the century.

(Middle) more recent paper-based engineering design. (Bottom) the manipulation

of data through the use of computer-aided design
——— —

Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 193 — ——— . —

in job rotation. Only some of the programing

jobs and major repair and maintenance tasks

would have to be carried out by personnel

working outside the system. This system

would provide considerable job variety for

operators, in contrast to the more traditional

hierarchical approach of combining workers

who have a relatively low level of skills, and

whose jobs are highly specialized, with one or

two group leaders or foremen with special

skills.

Research currently under way at the University of Manchester (England) is attempting to

develop software that will enable the equipment operator to program an FMS by making the first batch of parts.12 In this experiment, the human qualities of skill and judgment are not eliminated, but are assisted and

made more productive. However, some experts have expressed some skepticism about

this proposal. They suggest that it represents

a cosmetic solution that would not work well

in practice, since the situation would be the

same for the operator after the first batch of

parts was made unless the parts were changed

frequently.

PA also has an effect on the nature of work.

A striking feature of the many systems observed during the company visits that has consequences for the work environment is their

high level of integration. This results in an increased interdependence among workers who

deal with these systems. For production workers, this interdependence chiefly meant that

at certain stages of production the input or

participation of others was necessary, requiring teams rather than individuals to complete

a job. For subassembly production workers in

the auto body shop, interdependence increased

because each individual was more closely tied

into the pace of the system as a whole. One

subassembly worker explained:

Before, you had more individual operations

. . . you might have, maybe, two people work-

‘*H. H. Rosenbrock, The University of Manchester Institute

of Science and Technology, “A Flexible Manufacturing System

in Which Operators Are Not Subordinate to Machines, a proposal approved by the Science and Engineering Research Council in 1983.

ing together. Well, now you have maybe five,

six, seven, eight . . . and everybody dependent on everybody.

The higher degree of integration results in

more synchronous work for all production

workers, making it impossible for individual

operators to work faster or slower than others

in the system for more than several minutes

at a time.

On the FMS at the agricultural equipment

company there was evidence of a greater need

for equipment operators to coordinate with the

system superintendent in the computer control room and with other operators. Even

stand-alone NC operators, both at the aircraft

manufacturer and at the small job shops, commented on their increased need to rely on programmers and other support operations. No

longer could a machinist execute an entire part

alone, as was generally done on conventional

machine tools. An NC operator at the aircraft

company said:

On a conventional machine it’s pretty

much just between you and the machine . . . .

On the NC machine you’ve got the programer, . . . NC tooling, . . . planning, and if any

one part of it breaks down, then the whole

thing goes.

A supervisor in the same shop also felt the

effects of this increased interdependence:

Supervising NC, you have to deal with

more support groups. You’re more vulnerable

to their preferences. There’s more negotiation

beforehand with people like programing and

fixturing.

Maintenance workers experienced the increased interdependence in their work chiefly

as an increase in the need for collaboration

among the different skilled trades. The complexity of the new systems meant that, in

many cases, diagnosis and repair required the

input of workers with varying backgrounds.

A skilled tradesman at the agricultural implement maker described the situation:

You can save a lot of time by people working together and getting along. Otherwise a

two-minute problem becomes a two-hour

problem. A few years ago you could do it by
194 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

. — —

yourself, but now you need two heads, one

mechanical and one electrical, and a good

operator.

There are opportunities for enlarging the

scope of jobs with PA. The OTA case study

on the seven small shops outlines a number

of ways to improve job design for NC operators—including involving them in programing

and editing, and providing opportunities for

job rotation. With appropriate training, workers could be involved in a greater variety of

tasks by rotating jobs; however, this would require cooperation between labor and management in agreeing to increased flexibility in

work rules. Another opportunity for workers

to perform a wide range of tasks rather than

narrow, fragmented ones is in the application

of group technology, through the use of manufacturing cells producing families of parts

grouped on the basis of similar shapes and/or

processing requirements.

The flexibility of PA provides the potential

to achieve a better balance between the economic considerations that determine technological choices and the social consequences of

those choices in the workplace. There are

cases where organizational and technological

changes have been combined successfully to

yield dramatic improvements in productivity

and effectiveness. 13 While these changes generally were motivated by factors other than

improving the work environment, organizing

work in ways that improve the work environment should result in economic payoffs as well

through better worker morale and productivity.

Many of the concerns about the introduction

of PA revolve around the changes it will bring

about in the organization and nature of work.

The choices made by those who design and

manage automated systems will have a profound effect on how these systems influence

the work environment.

“Robert Zager and Michael P. Resow (eds.), The Innovative

Organization: Productivity Programs in Action (New York:

Pergarnon Press, 1982).

Changing Skill Levels

Chapter 4 discussed the changes in skill

levels and mixes that can be anticipated

through the introduction of PA on a large

scale. This section deals with work environment aspects of changing skills levels, including perspectives gained from the OTA

case studies.

The ways in which work is organized and

jobs are designed will determine both the skills

needed to do a particular job and the overall

level of skills required in a workplace using

PA. In general, PA gives rise to a greater need

for conceptual skills (e.g., programing) and a

lesser need for motor skills (e.g., machining)

than are required for conventional equipment.14 Zuboff describes the new relationships

between individuals and tasks that are created

by information technology as “computer-mediated.15 Computer-mediated work involves

the electronic manipulation of symbols—an abstract activity rather than a sensual one. There

will be a greater need for workers to monitor

and maintain systems rather than to actually operate them, and more of the decisionmaking capability will be programed into the technology. For instance, NC machines have the

potential to significantly lower skill requirements for operators, compared to conventional

automation.

In the small machine shops visited for the

OTA case studies, the owners all reported that

the use of NC allowed them to run their machines productively using workers with less

skill than would have been required on conventional equipment. The use of NC did not make

machinists’ skills superfluous, nor did it

eliminate the need for some highly skilled

workers in the shop, but it did allow the shop

to function with a lower overall skill level in

its work force than was previously possible.

One shopowner commented:

—

“Barry Wilkinson, The Shopfloor Politics of New Technology

(London: Heinemann Educational Books, lggsj.

15Shoshana Zuboff, “New Worlds of Computer-Mediated

Work, ” liarvard Business Review, September-October 1982,

pp. 144-45.
—

Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment . 195

Five, six years ago we were very dependent

on skilled labor, to the point where 1 spent

half my life on my hands and knees begging

somebody to stay and do something. And

they tended to be prima donnas: “I won’t

work Saturdays” and “I don’t work nights. ”

And this is one of the motivating factors in

bringing in NC equipment. That reduced our

dependency on skilled labor.

In situations where less overall skill is required the application of a higher level of skills

will usually result in a more efficient operation.

Even on a highly automated system, such as

a flexible manufacturing system, human input

remains important. The initiative and judgment that are occasionally required for optimum operation of such complex systems may

not be present if skilled craftsmen and/or highly trained operators are not available.

The relative mix of skills required within the

organization as a whole may change with the

introduction of PA systems. This will vary

among firms, depending on their products and

processes. At the aircraft manufacturing firm,

establishing a “data stream” would affect the

company’s skill requirements throughout its

engineering operations. This would make the

jobs done earlier in the design-build process

broader and more technically detailed, while

reducing the autonomy of engineers and the

need for skills later in the process. This has

advantages for the aircraft industry because

of its particularly stringent needs for quality

control. As described by a company official:

A number of the people that are left will

be an element of a very controlled process.

The ingenuity of the craft will have been removed. The advantage is to have more consistent outcomes with the hiccups removed.

People’s actions will be more controlled by

strict procedures. The human part of the job

will be less evident.

At the same time, many relatively routine jobs

would be eliminated. - If accomplished, this

would bring about a substantial reconfiguration of skill within the company, a reconfiguration that will not necessarily be obvious from

a list of occupational titles.

At the body shop of the automaker, there

has been a distinct rise in the ratio of skilled

nonproduction workers to production workers.

This is due to reductions in the number of production workers as well as increases in skilled

maintenance labor.

Training

Chapter 6 discusses in detail the changes in

education and training needs that will result

from the widespread use of PA. This section

provides perspectives that may go unrecognized in explicit education and trainingoriented analyses and points to the fact that

attitudes about training complement other

attitudes and responses concerning new technology.

The OTA work environment case study interviews detected widespread concern among

workers using automated equipment about

what they perceived to be inadequate training, particularly for their present jobs. The

chief complaints came from equipment operators and skilled trades people at the large

companies visited. Some of the interest in

training was motivated simply by curiosity

about the new computerized technology. However, most often operators felt that their lack

of training in the capabilities of their machines

made them less productive workers.

Machinists in the NC shop at the aircraft

company were the most vocal about their

training needs. Although the company sponsored after-hours courses, the operators reported that these classes did not address the

specific capabilities of their machines. NC

operators were distressed about not knowing

more about their machines; they felt that they

could produce better parts if they were better versed in the use of their equipment. One

machinist commented:

It’s like having a DC-3 pilot and walking

him over to a 747 and saying, “Now look guy,

it’s an airplane, too—use it to the fullest

extent it was made for . . . and if you don’t

know how to fly it, then check with the guy
196 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

in the right seat because he has probably

been in it before and he will show you how

the ropes work. ”

Some maintenance workers also complained

about inadequate training. Maintenance personnel are expected to repair increasingly

sophisticated and complex electromechanical

equipment, and most of the maintenance

workers interviewed felt inadequately prepared for this responsibility. Compounding

their sense of inadequacy was the rate of technological change, which could quickly make

even recently learned systems outdated, and

the pressure they felt to repair the costly and

complex technology in the minimum possible

time.

Another force motivating workers’ interest

in further training is the fear of displacement

as more and more jobs are affected by automation. The statement of an operator on the

FMS, who had bid onto the system partly because of his concern about being left behind

by changing technology, was typical--"If you

don’t get into it, you won’t be able to get by.

If you’re looking at 15 years or so before retirement, you’ll be sweeping floors. ”

The majority of the managers and machinists interviewed in the small shops believed

that training on conventional equipment was

an important prerequisite for effective performance on NC equipment. It was not clear

whether they viewed the technical qualities of

NC to be the principal drawback of learning

machining on NC equipment only, or whether

their concerns had to do with how NC machine

operators are often trained (i.e., only on a

single machine, not taught to plan work, set

up, etc.). In the small shops, there were no

complaints from workers about the adequacy

of training. This may have been because the

employees did not expect the employer to provide training, or perhaps because there was

more informal training in small shops.

Occupational Safety and Health

The various forms of PA have both positive

and negative effects on the safety and health

of workers. In general, the introduction of PA

tends to have a favorable impact on the work

environment, although some new physical hazards associated with the lack of immediate

worker control over system operations may

emerge. However, PA will create new situations, or perpetuate old ones, that may have

negative psychological effects on the work

force.

Overall, the potential physical hazards appear to be more amenable to solution than

some of the psychological ones because they

are more easily recognized and are less subject to the subtleties of individual personalities. The relief of such symptoms as boredom

and stress is more challenging because they

are not as well measured or understood, affect

different people in different ways, and are

often complicated by other factors not directly

related to the workplace. In addition, a commitment to alleviating monotony and stress

in the workplace usually involves major

changes in the way work is structured that can

pose problems for both managers and other

workers. These safety and health considerations are discussed below.

Effects of PA on the Workplace

Programmable automation has a variety of

implications for health and safety in the workplace. For instance, robots are amenable to

hazardous tasks in environments that are

unpleasant and unhealthy for human workers.

Thus, there can be a net positive effect on

workers when a robot is installed for this purpose, providing the worker displaced is transferred to another job that is more pleasant or

is trained to monitor or maintain the robot.

A worker’s lot is considerably improved when

hard or dirty physical labor is assumed by a

robot.

However, certain precautions are necessary

to avoid unanticipated encounters between robets and humans. Statistics on such encounters in the United States are presently unavailable, although the Robotic Industries Association (formerly the Robot Institute of America)

is planning to develop them. A recent Japanese Ministry of Labor survey indicated that
Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 197

in that country, since 1978, there had been 2

workers killed, 9 injured, and 37 “narrow

escapes”; since near-accidents are not usually reported, the number of such incidents was

presumed to be much higher.16 As a result, the

Ministry of Labor is currently drafting regulations dealing with robot safety. These regulations will make it mandatory to: 1) enclose

robots with a protective screen or fence, 2)

establish operating regulations with fail-safe

on-off buttons and possibly auditory signals

indicating the commencement of operation of

mobile robots, and 3) install safety switches

enabling immediate shut-down in case of emergency. Also being considered is specialized

training on the safe operation of robots, as well

as the provision of clearer operating instructions, including visual aids.

In response to concerns about robot safety,

the Robotic Industries Association has organized a committee of robot producers to provide guidelines for the safe use of robots. In

addition, major robot users in the United

States, such as General Motors, Chrysler, and

Ford Motor Co., apply their own sets of safety standards (see table 50). The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

(NIOSH) has a planning project under way

that will examine the potential health and safety problems associated with the introduction

of robotics and define the need for further research. NIOSH is also developing guidelines

‘

6

’’ Microelectronics and Its Impact on Labor, ” report of the

Japanese Ministry of Labor, August 1983.

on sensor-based methods to prevent fatalities

and traumatic injuries during the maintenance

of automated machines.

A recent report prepared by the British Machine Tool Trades Association described the

potential hazards of robots and developed a

method of assessing the risks.17 According to

this report, the major new hazard is the work

envelope of the robot because it increases the

complexity of guarding arrangements. Unpredictable action patterns, its ability to move in

free space, and the possibility of reconfiguration all distinguish a robot from other automated equipment. The report refers to the following incidents of unpredicted robot movement which have occurred:

aberrant behavior of a robot caused by a

control system fault,

jamming of a servo-valve,

robot movement cutting its umbilical

cord,

splitting of a union on an exposed hydraulic pipe, and

fault in data transmission causing a larger

than anticipated movement of the robot

arm.

In addition, the report discusses recommendations on design requirements and methods

of safeguarding, including safe systems of

work and rules for access to the robot. Advice

“’’Safeguarding Industrial Robots: Part I, Basic Principles, ”

a report of the Machine Tool Trades Association, London,

England, 1982.

Table 50.— GM Robot Safety Standards: Suggested Safeguards

——

Unauthorized Authorized

Safeguards intrusion Teach Maintenance Side by side

Mechanical stops ., .. .-, . . . . . ... ... . . . . ... . . . ... x x

Barriers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . x x

Lockout . . . . ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

Limit detecting hardware ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . x

Software limits ., ... . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . x

Proximity detectors . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

Presence detectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

Vision optical systems ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

Robot deactivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... x x x

Slow speed, low power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x x

Excess-flow check valve (hydraulic fuses) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x

Emergency stop (readily accessible) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x x x

Warning methods ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x

SOURCE General Motors Corp Operations Safety and Health Manual, sec 28, January 1983
198 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— — —

on control systems, programing,maintenance,

and operation is included, together with a brief

summary of the legal requirements as they

currently apply in the United Kingdom.

In one manufacturing site visited by OTA

staff, a number of safety precautions for working with an arc-welding robot were observed. *

For instance, the robot is programed to work

in sequence at two stations, allowing the operator to set up or clear one station while the

robot works at the other. Pressure-sensitive

floor pads prevent the robot from working at

a station if a person is standing in a risky location. Also, a flashing yellow light indicates

that the robot is on, and an alarm sounds when

the robot has finished a task. In order for the

robot to move from station to station, a relay

switch must be pressed. The opening of a protective chain around the area will cause a circuit to be broken and the robot will stop.

In the auto company case study, the introduction of robot spot-welding removed auto

production workers from the point of contact

between weld gun and sheet metal, where

showers of sparks were generated. However,

it was generally agreed that the danger of injury has escalated for repairmen who work

with equipment that cannot be pulled to one

side and replaced by a backup, but must be

repaired in place before operation can resume.

Dangers stem from the complexity, unfamiliarity, and automatic nature of the new equipment that may move without direct human

initiation and sometimes without warning.

The auto company safety administrator commented:

. . . . In the old days, you had one [weld] gun,

and you could shut it down and work on it.

Now you’ve got this complicated mess. If you

don’t know what you’re doing, you could get

hurt. . . . We’ve had press injuries you didn’t

have before, and automatic clamps.

Production workers who were interviewed in

the auto plant believe that safety is poor in

the automated system. Two problems in particular disturbed them–pools of hydraulic oil

‘X~TA site visit, ~~rnhart cot-p.; United Shoe Manufacturing

Plant, Beverly, Mass., June 1983.

surrounding much of the automated machinery and the increased risk of cuts with the robotic welding system. The union committeeman claimed that the pressure to quickly refill

the conveyors when part of subassembly suffers a breakdown leads to safety hazards:

This [the need to catch up] is a real incentive for people to cut corners . . . to take

chances. It’s one of the reasons we do have

a large number of lacerations. . . .

It is important to note in this case that,

while breakdowns are technological in nature,

the pressure to meet quotas in spite of equipment failure is organizational. This situation

is not unique to PA, but the problem is exacerbated by a system designed in such a way that

equipment cannot be pulled to one side for repair, and by the complexity and automatic nature of the equipment. In addition, the high

capital cost of the equipment increases the

desire to use it to the fullest extent. This may

entail operating the line faster to makeup for

time when the machine is down, in order to

meet production goals.

The potential safety and health hazards for

workers using video display terminals (VDTs)

for CAD are very different from those for

workers using robots or other forms of PA on

the shop floor. Both the work performed and

the technology itself are substantially different. Although there is documentation of increased levels of stress among clerical workers

using VDTs for long periods of time, the problems are lessened when the terminals are used

as a tool to augment other activities, as in

CAD, and when workers retain their autonomy and decisionmaking functions. Workers

and worker representatives continue to be concerned about levels of radiation emitted by

VDTs, although evidence to date suggests

that the levels of radiation emitted by VDTs

are too low to be hazardous to health.18 Nevertheless, NIOSH is continuing research in this

area. Eyestrain and postural problems are controllable to some extent through properly de-

‘

s

’’Video Displays, Work and Vision, ” report of the National

Research Council (Washington, D. C.: National Academy Press,

1983).
Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment . 199

— — —

signed workstations, lighting, and frequent

breaks.

Based on the technologies observed for the

OTA work environment case studies, the field

record of PA with respect to safety appears

to be mixed, which is to be expected with relatively new technologies. On the one hand,

some types of automation remove production

workers from close contact with tools during

actual operation. Three different field examples suggest that automation can improve

safety by increasing the distance between

workers and the part being machined, assembled, or processed: 1) the introduction of robot

welding removes workers from the point of

contact between the weld gun and sheet metal;

2) machinists on NC equipment work at a

greater distance from cutting tools and often

are separated by doors and enclosures; and 3)

at the agricultural implements firm, robots

rather than workers now spray-paint tractors

in an atmosphere filled with fumes.

On the other hand, it was noted that automated carriers, clamps, and fixtures move and

close without direct human initiation and

sometimes without warning. This can be particularly dangerous where adequate precautions are absent and in highly pressured settings, e.g., for maintenance workers who deal

with complex equipment on an assembly or

processing line that cannot start again until

they finish repair work. One worker at the agricultural implements firm noted:

I’ve seen the thing move and nobody

touched a button. You’re dealing with something you can’t control. It’s created a whole

different type of problem—not necessarily

more problems—but different problems.

Working around complex machinery that can

move in several different directions according

to a plan that is not under the control of an

operator or repair person—and may not even

be well understood by those in the immediate

area-was mentioned by workers as a significant safety hazard. The level of complexity on

programmable systems may make it difficult

for a worker to anticipate the system’s behavior and avoid the risk presented by sudden and

unpredictable motion. This was demonstrated

in 1979 in Michigan when a worker was killed

when hit in the head by a “robot arm. ” The

worker was attempting to climb a storage rack

to get parts because a materials handling system designed to fetch parts automatically had

been malfunctioning. Since the arm operated

silently, the worker was unaware it had resumed activity.lg

Nevertheless, with appropriate precautions

the use of PA will reduce hazards in the workplace. It also will allow new work in hazardous

environments such as toxic waste handling,

nuclear powerplants, and undersea activities.

Psychological Effects of PA on Workers

Computerized automation in manufacturing

has the potential for creating a number of psychological impacts on workers. Some of these

effects may represent a temporary phenomenon resulting from a mismatch of worker skills

and job requirements; i.e., experienced workers may be either over- or under-qualified for

work they are doing on new automated systems.

Two of the principal effects, boredom and

stress, are often closely related in that long

periods of boredom at work can lead to stress

in some individuals. In other ways, they represent opposite ends of a spectrum of individual reactions to work responsibilities. Boredom and stress in the automated workplace

can result from the characteristics of the design of the technical system and work organization, as well as from such factors as lot

size and the nature of the product manufactured.

Boredom.–PA technologies, such as NC

machine tools and flexible manufacturing systems, are usually designed to run with minimal

operator intervention. The human intervention

that is planned into the system is of a relatively routine sort, such as making tool changes

or performing other preventive maintenance

duties. However, in OTA case study inter-

“

L

’Millions Paid in Robot Death, ” Chicago Tribune, ,4ug. 11,

1983.
200 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Photo credit: Lockheed-Georgia Co

Some types of automation remove production workers from close contact with tools, and considerably reduce

the physical effort required to operate them. Top photo—old method of routing flat sheet metal parts.

Bottom—new method, using an NC machine
Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 207

.— —. —.

views, both the owners of small shops using

NC machines and the project manager of the

FMS acknowledged that operator input of

more than a routine nature, such as being alert

to problems and acting to eliminate or minimize difficulties that may develop, was important to the smooth functioning of the production process. This need for alert and intelligent

operator intervention is at odds with an important aspect of the system’s design-the attempt to remove the necessity for intervention

as far as possible. (However, some believe that

workers will always find ways to intervene in

automated processes.20)

Some NC operators, especially those making long cuts on NC machines, reported being

bored for significant portions of their working

day. NC operators reported that the lethargy

that developed from long periods of inaction

interfered with their ability to do their work

most effectively. An NC machine operator at

the aircraft manufacturing company said:

The hardest thing to do is to keep yourself

on your toes checking the measurements.

Just because the tape says it’s good, it not

necessarily so . . . you get to relying on that

tape, and what the machine can do, and sometimes the boredom—you know, you’d just as

soon put another part on and just sit down

again.

The boredom inherent in running a machine

tool that can function automatically for periods of time is exacerbated in some cases by

long running times for individual parts, so that

there may be hours and sometimes even days

between changeovers when a new setup is required. Parts with long running times are particularly common in the aircraft industry, so

that machinists at the aircraft manufacturer

and at the small shops that were subcontractors to the aircraft industry encountered many

parts requiring lengthy cuts. Large lot sizes,

which demand that an operator make the same

part repeatedly, were also a factor in boredom.

On the FMS, boredom appeared to be less

of a problem for operators; this may have been

a function of the broader range of problems

—

‘“0’ Toole, op. cit.

to which the system was subject. The larger

the number and variety of unanticipated

events, the less opportunity there was to be

bored. As with NC machine operation, the

slower periods when FMS operators appeared

to be idle were actually times when they were

overseeing the system and watching for problems. But it was difficult to sustain alertness

during these monitoring periods. Boredom

could set in because there was no immediate

need for active intervention and the application of problem-solving skills. Because operators participated in the diagnosis and minor

repairs of the costly and complex systems,

periods of relative inactivity alternated with

periods of considerable stress and pressure

when problems arose with the system. This

situation is similar to a number of other work

environments that are highly computerized,

such as nuclear powerplants.

Boredom that resulted from the way work

was organized was a common complaint

among NC operators who were interviewed for

the case studies. Skilled NC operators who did

not write part programs (i.e., the majority of

those interviewed) reported that operating an

NC machine was significantly less interesting

and challenging than operating a conventional

machine. While it is technically possible for

NC machinists to do their own programing,

at least for simpler parts, shop floor programing was rarely found in the sites visited for the

case studies, either in the small shops or in the

large NC machine shop at the aircraft manufacturing company. An experienced machinist

in one of the small machine shops commented:

“YOU get to be, in my opinion, on an NC, a little weak-minded. ” Another said, “They’re

junk as far as I’m concerned. . . . You can take

a chimpanzee, the light goes on, push a button. ” In the sites visited, only the skilled

machinists who were able to do some programing felt positive about NC machining. In the

small shops, some relatively inexperienced NC

operators who had been machinists for only

2 or 3 years reported fewer problems with

boredom, indicating that a worker’s previous

experience is an important factor.
202 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— ——.———

By removing programing from the shop

floor, the most interesting and creative part

of NC machining work has been taken out of

the hands of the machinist. If the equipment

operator were given the responsibility for deciding how to make the part (to the extent this

is technically feasible and assuming the operator wanted the additional responsibility),

boredom would be substantially reduced. A

machinist in a small machine shop said:

How could you make the job more interesting? With a machine like this [an NC lathe],

get a good operator who knows what he’s doing, . . . give him a chance to do a setup and

learn how to program the machine, so that

he can look at the readout, and he can understand what the machine is doing, not just

stand here and just wait and then push the

button and take the part out–that would

help for a while.

In some settings, however, programing or

editing on the shop floor may be unavoidably

constrained. In defense applications, for example, NC programs maybe certified by the Department of Defense, a situation that militates

against ad hoc changes by machinists.

Stress.–As in many workplaces, work-related stress is a significant feature of computer-automated workplaces. Evidence from the

OTA work environment case studies suggests

that for many workers stress is an important

factor in the work environment, particularly

for employees who have responsibility for very

complex and expensive systems. Two major

sources of automation-related stress were identified: 1) stress associated with working on

very complicated, capital-intensive, and highly

integrated systems; and 2) the lack of autonomy at work, extending in some cases to computerized monitoring by management. In

many cases, stress may be considered a temporary byproduct of the change process itself;

in others, it may become a permanent feature

of the work environment.

In the plants studied, maintenance workers

and equipment operators who had some maintenance duties reported substantial stress

associated with having the responsibility for

maintaining sophisticated, costly, and interdependent automated systems such as the robotic welding system at the auto plant or the

materials handling system at the agricultural

implements manufacturer. The combination of

the complexity of the system and the pressure

to minimize downtime because of the high cost

of lost production added up to substantial

stress for some maintenance workers assigned

to systems of this sort-a problem intertwined

with but also distinct from the physical hazards that such stress produces.

The most vivid example of this type of

stress was in the body shop of the automaker,

where welder repair supervisors reported being under extreme pressure. In the area of the

body shop where the side aperture robotic

welding/automotic re-spot line is located, there

had been a 150 percent annual turnover rate

among first-line supervisors. A general foreman said:

This has been the hardest 3 years of my life.

There isn’t any relaxation . . . I’ve walked out

of here and sat in my car, unable to move, getting myself together.

The highly integrated nature of the automated

framing system, which links in series complex

electronic and mechanical components, means

that a failure in one part of the system spreads

quickly to other areas.

The high cost of the equipment in the automated body shop is a further source of stress.

Thousands of dollars worth of damage maybe

done if a supervisor, in haste, misdiagnose a

problem. The same problem was mentioned in

regard to the FMS of the tractor producer. As

one operator put it:

When you’re first down there you’re just

nervous. Because everything’s so expensive

you don’t want to break anything.

Another source of stress for workers on

automated systems comes from system unpredictability. Computerized automation, as an

electrician at the tractor assembly plant said,

“is made to go and stop on its own program. ”

A machinist at a small machine shop made a
Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 203 —

similar comment about working on NC machine tools:

These NC machines—they’re unpredictable. You don’t know what it’s going to do, the

first time you run that program. You’re always on edge until it’s proved out.

The reduction in autonomy at work can take

its toll in stress on the worker. In all of the

work sites visited for the case studies, managers spoke about using PA to establish better planning and allocation of all the firm’s

resources. A frequently mentioned benefit in

batch production was faster throughput, the

ability to complete the production of a part in

less time, as a result of more effective direction of the part’s movement through the shop.

The particular organizational choices managers made to establish greater control resulted

in less autonomy for the workers involved. In

general, reduction in amount of autonomy on

the job is likely to be more stressful where

workers previously had a greater degree of autonomy and now have either less or none at

all. It also would be different in degree depending on the experience and expectations of the

individual worker.

Analyzing studies of Swedish and American

men, Dr. Robert A. Karasek found that workrelated strain was a function not of heavy job

demands alone, but of the combination of

heavy job demands with restricted job control

and decisionmaking latitude. 21 He concludes:

. . . the opportunity for a worker to use his

skills and to make decisions about his work

activity is associated with reduced symptoms (of stress) at every level of job demands.

We do not find, therefore, support for the belief that most individuals “overburdened”

with decisions face the most strain in an industrialized economy. Literature lamenting

the stressful burden of executive decisionmaking misses the mark. Constraints on decisionmaking, not decisionmaking per se, are

the major problem, and this problem affects

not only executives but workers in low status

jobs with little freedom for decisionmaking

“Robert A. Karasek, Jr., “Job Demands, Job Decision Latitude, and Mental Strain: Implications for Job Redesign, ” Administrative Science QuarterI-v (24), June 1979, p. 303,

. . . e.g., assembly workers, garment stitchers, freight-and-materials handlers, nurse’s

aides and orderlies, and telephone operators.

Machine-paced work, such as was found at

the agricultural implements company and at

the auto manufacturer, affects autonomy. Assembly workers at both companies were paced

by the speed of the line, so that both the rate

of their work and the timing of their breaks

were out of their control (and also unpredictable, in the case of downtime). Lack of autonomy is not, of course, a new issue on the shop

floor; it is not easily alleviated, and may indeed be aggravated, by the introduction of

PA.

The increased visibility of shop operations

made possible by computerized monitoring

and scheduling systems allows management

to spot bottlenecks more readily and take corrective action when necessary. However, what

information is gathered and how it is used can

result in new forms of control, both subtle and

direct, over worker activities. Electronic

monitoring of worker performance, and the apprehension it engenders in workers, can also

add to stress in the workplace.

One system observed in the site visit to the

aircraft manufacturer monitored production

at 66 NC machines that are directly wired into

the system. The goal is to establish direct feedback from the shop floor to management about

how an important element of the NC program

—the control of machine feeds—is carried out.

The system and a panel that shows the status

of each machine-running, running at less

than 80 percent, down, or temporarily halted

for part handling-is housed above the shop

floor in a control room with a view of the surrounding machines. By looking at a panel, a

supervisor can tell the status of all the machines in a given jurisdiction. Moreover, supervisors obtain daily reports from the system,

and weekly and monthly tabulations are made

in chart form for upper management.

The system seems to be widely accepted,

even though some operators are apprehensive

about its monitoring capabilities. (One machinist said: “It’s like having a big television cam-
204 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— . —

era looking over my shoulder.”) One of the

reasons it has been accepted is that certain

limits on its use by management are fairly well

established after several years of operation.

The company has an agreement with the union

that information from the system will not be

used to discipline employees, although operators said that individual supervisors could exercise various sorts of informal discipline if

they so chose. Monitoring, which is not a new

issue on the shop floor, was also emerging as

an issue among engineers at the company because of the potential use of CAD terminals

for monitoring the amount of time spent at the

terminals by individual engineers. The capabilities of the technology are thus expanding

the concerns about computer monitoring into

higher levels of the organization, affecting personnel who lack prior experience with or coping mechanisms for it.

Labor-Management Relations

The effects of PA on the work environment

will be determined in part by management’s

motivations for automating and by the nature

of labor-management relations. * Management

might decide to introduce PA for a variety of

reasons, such as: 1) to improve productivity,

2) to reduce costs, 3) to standardize production methods, 4) to enable the use of workers

with fewer skills, 5) to increase control over

the pace and quality of production, and 6) to

get on the technological bandwagon. Who

makes the decision in the organization will also

have an important effect on the results. Research suggests that managers often lack the

background to assess the technological options, while staff familiar with the new technologies are less able to appreciate associated

strategic dimensions.22

*This di9Cu99ion focuses on work environment issues; it eXcludes wages, benefits, and other industrial relations issues. For

additional discussion, see OTA Technical Memorandum “Automation and the Workplace: Selected Labor, Education, and

Training Issues, ” March 1983.

‘

zStephen R. Rosenthal and Homayoun Vossoughi, “Factory

Automation in the U. S.: Summary of Survey Responses and

Initial Commentaries, ” School of Management, Boston University, March 1983.

Once the decision is made, the strategies

employed by management for introducing PA

are key in determining its impacts. Prior experience seems to be an important factor in

how an organization copes with additional

automation. 23 Also, the introduction of new

technology may be facilitated by good intracompany communications and a “participative” management style.24 Where the

knowledge and expertise of workers is factored

into the decisionmaking surrounding new technology, and information is shared, implementation problems may be minimized somewhat.

In the agricultural implements case study,

when asked what he would do differently,

given another opportunity, the plant’s

manager of manufacturing replied:

We would bring in the electrical and mechanical skilled trades people earlier so they

could see the equipment installed. . . . We

would have our own skilled trades people look

over the shoulder of the installers. . . . We

would also have brought in more systems

people earlier, especially systems people with

shop savvy.

Cooperative arrangements between universities and manufacturing firms may be useful

devices for introducing new technologies. For

example, Worcester Polytechnic Institute and

the Emhart Corp. joined together to form an

on-campus research center to work on practical applications problems involved in introducing robotic systems to Emhart’s operating divisions.25 Relevant personnel at all

levels (production, support, and professional)

participated in applications development and

preparation.

The nature of labor-management relations

will affect the implementation of new technology and its consequences for the work environment. Cooperation between employers, workers, and society in determining the design, implementation, and pace of change would tend

to minimize potential negative effects of tech-

*

sDonald Gerwin, “Do’s and Don’ts of Computerized Manufacturing, ” Harvard Business Review, March-April 1982, p. 110,

24The Impact of Chip Technology, op. cit., p. 8.

“OTA Education and Training case study.
Ch. 5–The — ——— —

. — — —. . ..

Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 205

nological innovation.26 Such cooperation, however, will require mutual trust among the parties involved. While such trust traditionally

has not been a hallmark of labor-management

relations in the United States, some observers

predict that American industrial relations will

become more hospitable to collaboration in the

near future due to such pervasive circumstances as intense foreign competition and

technological change.

In response to changing worker expectations, management increasingly has been

forced to pay greater attention to the needs

of its work force, beyond the traditional ones

of fair wages and benefits. This trend has been

growing since the 1960’s and 1970’s, and is not

limited to either new technology or PA. In addition to such provisions as profit-sharing and

job security, workers have been demanding a

greater say in matters that directly affect their

workplace; where management has begun to

tap into this knowledge and experience they

have often discovered a new source of support

and insights.

The attention being given in the United

States to the Japanese style of labor-management relations seems to be affecting the nature

of labor-management relations in this country.

In particular, cooperative labor-management

efforts in solving workplace problems have

been gaining popularity in the United States.

These innovative work experiments are known

by a variety of names, including Quality of

Working Life Programs, Quality Circles, Labor/Management Committees, and Employee

Involvement Programs. A recent Department

of Labor document identifies and describes

over 200 cooperative labor-management programs; 27 the International Association of Quality Circles promotes quality circles through

conferences, training activities, and educational materials; and consulting firms are be-

“Donald Kennedy, Charles Craypo, and Mary I.ehman (eds.),

Labor and Technology: Union Response to Changing Environments (Department of Labor Studies, The Pennsylvania State

University, 1982).

“’’Resource Guide to Labor-Management Cooperation, ” U.S.

Department of Labor, Labor-Management Services Administration, October 1983.

ginning to provide guidance for setting up

such efforts. Membership in participative programs is usually voluntary, and training in

problem-solving techniques is provided. Generally, their purpose is to identify and help to

solve everyday problems on the job. Such programs have had mixed results, reflecting the

diversity of approaches taken, management

styles, and work force heterogeneity. This

makes it difficult to generalize about the goals

of these programs or to evaluate their effectiveness.

Cooperative efforts can occur in either union

or nonunion settings. Indeed, their presence

in nonunion settings is attributed by some as

a factor constraining further unionization. In

plants that are unionized, cooperative groups

usually deal with workplace issues that fall

outside the collective bargaining framework.

Quality circles, modeled after the quality control circles in Japan, are usually managementinitiated to improve product quality and productivity. For this reason, some unions view

them as management devices to increase productivity at the expense of workers, and sometimes as a way to fight unions, rather than as

efforts to increase worker participation. The

fragility of some quality of work life (QWL)

programs has been demonstrated recently

when UAW union locals in GM plants in both

Michigan and California called for either disbandment or reevaluation of QWL programs,

criticizing management for abusing the cooperative spirit of the programs.

In the case of the introduction of new technology, successful labor-management cooperative efforts should have a positive effect on

the way in which it is perceived in the workplace. For instance, the UAW-Ford Employee

Involvement Program is viewed by employees

as having a beneficial effect on their jobs and

the work environment.28 Where such programs

are functioning well, they could help to ease

the changes brought about by the introduc-

—.

“’’UAW-Ford Employe Involvement: A Special Survey Report, ” Center Report 1, UAW-Ford National Development and

Training Center, 1982.
206 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— . — —

tion of PA. The principal uncertainty surrounding such programs appears to be, however, their relationship to the perhaps more

fundamental issue of job security. Labor-management cooperation appears to be sounder

where the fact of jobs is not in question.

If PA is perceived to be a growing threat to

job security, that perception may interfere

with other labor-management cooperative programs. Other factors that may hinder new

joint programs are the reluctance of parties

to fundamentally revise their attitudes, external events such as a recession, and lack of commitment by one or the other party.29 Some experts believe that shifts in labor-management

relations in recent times have been the result

of recession and do not represent any fundamental change in the attitudes of either management or labor.30 The tenor of negotiations

in major collective bargaining to take place in

1984 and beyond will bear watching to see if

there are perceptible trends in a changing climate of labor-management relations.

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data

(September 1981) give the number of employed

wage and salary workers in labor organizations as 23 percent and the percentage represented by labor organizations as 25.7 percent,

although the proportion varies among industries (see table 51).31 Experts suggest that

these percentages are currently a few points

lower. The approaches to new technology and

accompanying levels of concern have varied

among unions, although overall concern is

growing. While the views of unionized workers

concerning new technology are known, less is

known about the attitudes of workers in nonunionized companies. However, they would

likely cover a broad range depending on the

size of the company and the type of labor policies employed. One study found that some of

“Irving H, Siegel and Edgar Weinberg, Labor-Management

Cooperation: The Amen”can Experience (Kalamazoo: W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 1982).

30Sar A. Levitan and Clifford M, Johnson, “Labor and Management: The Illusion of Cooperation, ” Harvard Business Re-

\’iew, September-October 1983, p. 8.

“’’Earnings and Other Characteristics of Organized Workers, ” U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,

September 1981,

the large nonunion companies resembled the

large unionized companies in their labor practices, and some even had policies that were

more restrictive than those of union contractual arrangements.32 In the small nonunion

shops visited for OTA work environment case

studies, workers interviewed seemed to accept

the fact that the future lies in increasing

automation, whether or not they like it

personally.

Unions have attempted to minimize what

are perceived as the socially harmful effects

of new technologies on the labor force, such

as job displacement and deskilling. Such efforts include collective bargaining, organizing,

and political strategies.33 For instance, technology clauses are becoming more common in

collective bargaining agreements, and some

unions provide model contract language to

their local bodies that covers the introduction

of new technology. Adjustment procedures

and programs, such as advance notice and provisions for training related to new technology,

increasingly are included in union contracts.

Recently AT&T and the local operating companies that were spun off in January 1984

agreed to offer retraining for other company

jobs at company expense, and thus job security, to any worker whose job will be eliminated

by the introduction of new technology.

The International Association of Machinists

and Aerospace Workers’ Technology Bill of

Rights, which outlines a specific list of worker

rights with respect to the introduction of new

technologies, has been provided to local unions

as a guide to be used during contract negotiations (see table 52). However, in a recent contract negotiation in California the company ignored the union request for one of the items

listed on the Bill of Rights–the retraining of

workers whose jobs are eliminated because of

new technology .34

-—

32Jack Stieber, Robert B. McKersie, and D. Quinn Mills (eds.),

U.S. Industrial Relations 1950-1980: A Critical Assessment

(Madison, Wis.: Industrial Relations Research Association,

1981), from chapter entitled “Large Nonunionized Employers”

by Fred K. Foulkes.

“Kennedy, Craypo, and Lehman, op. cit.

“’’Machinists Clear Pact With McDonnell, Bolstering Firm’s

Tough Stand on Costs, ” Wall Street Journal, Nov. 8, 1983.
I

Table 51 .–Employed Wage and Salary Workers Represented by Labor Organizationsa by Occupation and Industry, May 1980

(c)

(c)

(c)

(c)

(c)

7 5

—

7 5

(cl

—

(c)

325

55 0

(c)

Service workers including private household 3 6 5 (c}

‘1 nclbcles members and nonmembers In Oarqalmng units

blncludes farm ~~rker~ not shown sewratety

‘Wse less lhan 75000

NOTE CLIP 10 rou ndmg SUrIIL of IOdlvldual Items m~} not eoua lo~i~ls

SOURCE Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Earnings and Other

Dashes I I )rdl[at~, nq wo,k Cr< m I Pll

Charactenstlcs of Organized Workers, May 1980, ” Bulletin 2105, September 1981, p 27
208 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

Table 52.–Workers’ Technology Bill of Rights

1.

Il.

Ill.

Iv.

v.

VI.

VII.

New Technology shall be used in a way that creates jobs

and promotes community-wide and national full employment.

Unit Labor Cost savings and labor productivity gains

resulting from the use of New Technology shall be

shared with workers at the local enterprise level and shall

not be permitted to accrue excessively or exclusively for

the gain of capital, management, and shareholders.

Local communities, the states and the nation have a right

to require employers to pay a replacement tax, on all

machinery, equipment, robots, and production systems

that displace workers, cause unemployment and, thereby

decrease local, state, and federal revenues.

New Technology shall improve the conditions of work

and shall enhance and expand the opportunities for

knowledge, skills, and compensation of workers. Displaced workers shall be entitled to training, retraining

and subsequent job placement or re-employment.

New Technology shall be used to develop and strengthen the U.S. industrial base, consistent with the Full

Employment goal and national security requirements,

before it is licensed or otherwise exported abroad.

New Technology shall be evaluated in terms of worker

safety and health and shall not be destructive of the

workplace environment, nor shall it be used at the expense of the community’s natural environment.

Workers, through their trade unions and bargaining units,

shall have an absolute right to participate in all phases

of management deliberations and decisions that lead or

could lead to the introduction of new technology or the

changing of the workplace system design, work processes and procedures for doing work, including the shutdown or transfer of work, capital, plant and equipment.

Vlll. Workers shall have the right to monitor control room

centers and control stations and the new technology

shall not be used to monitor, measure or otherwise control the work practices and work standards of individual

workers, at the point of work.

IX. Storage of an individual worker’s personal data and information file by the employer shall be tightly controlled

and the collection and/or release and dissemination of

information with respect to race, religious or political

activities and beliefs, records of physical and mental

health disorders and treatments, records of arrests and

felony charges or convictions, information concerning

sexual preferences and conduct, information concerning internal and private family matters, and information

regarding an individual’s financial condition or credit

worthiness shall not be permitted, except in rare circumstances related to health, and then only after consultation with a family or union-appointed physician,

psychiatrist or member of the clergy. The right of an individual worker to inspect his or her personal data file

shall at all times be absolute and open.

X. When New Technology is employed in the production

of military goods and services, workers, through their

trade union and bargaining agent, shall have a right to

bargain with management over the establishment of

Alternative Production Committees, which shall design

ways to adopt that technology to socially-useful production and products in the civilian sector of the economy.

SOURCE International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers

One of the most controversial subjects of

labor-management relations involving the introduction of new technology will be work

rules. Work rules are central to the collective bargaining system in the United States,

and are viewed by some as one of its great

strengths. 35 This system of job control is also

closely related to the tenets of Taylorism that

break down work into sets of discrete tasks.36

In work sites that are becoming more and

more automated, management is likely to demand increasing flexibility in deploying workers. As noted in chapter 4, successful implementation of PA may involve substantial

changes in production processes and in the

nature of work to be done by people as opposed to machines. These changes will raise

questions concerning job definition-about

which tasks are combined to make which jobs.

Work rules assure that certain jobs contain

certain tasks, but PA may make such jobs obsolete. Job definition changes may be reflected

in collective bargaining requests from management for relaxing and changing work rules, in

return for union demands for worker benefits

such as job security or profit-sharing. In this

respect, nonunion shops may be able to respond more quickly to the changing workplace

demands of new technology.

Any discussion of restructuring work in automated environments in ways that would enhance the workplace needs to be framed in the

context of how the work rule issue evolves.

Management’s ability to take innovative approaches to implementing PA may be constrained by work rules that are outmoded and

difficult to change. In return for increased flexibility in deploying workers, management may

need to be more responsive in such matters as

increased labor involvement in decisions concerning the implementation of new technology

or job security.

‘sRobert M. Kaus, “The Trouble With Unions, ” Harper’s,

June 1983, p. 29.

“Michael J. Piore, “American Labor and the Industrial Crisis, ” Challenge, March-April 1982, p. 9.
Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 209

— . —

European and Japanese Experiences

In Western Europe and Japan, mechanisms

for dealing with workplace concerns have generally been applied to the introduction of new

technology, and in many cases the laws specify

how such introduction is to be handled. For

example, the laws of West Germany, Norway,

and Sweden provide for worker involvement

in technology issues, and labor is routinely represented on corporate boards. It is important,

however, to point out that the culture and traditions of Europe and Japan regarding attitudes and practices in the workplace differ

from the those of the United States, especially in the area of labor-management relations.

In general, the labor-management relations of

these countries are characterized by a more

cooperative atmosphere and greater worker

participation than has been the case in the

United States.

Japan

There seems to be a broad consensus among

labor, management, scholars, and the government in Japan that new technologies should

be applied in ways that will humanize life and

the quality of work.37 For example, in 1983,

a joint effort of government, industry, and

academia began to develop robots to perform

jobs too hazardous or unhealthy for human beings (known as “extreme-job’ robots) .38

Much has been written about Japanese

management style and its effect on the work

environment. In particular, the nature of labormanagement relations provides many opportunities for information exchange and sharing,

both between management and labor and

among workers themselves.39 Such information-sharing is key in Japanese companies, and

— --—

‘-Kazutoshi Koshiro, “The Employment Effect of Microelectronic Technology, ” Highlights in Japanese Industrial Relations, The Japanese Institute of Labor 1983, p. 87.

3R4’Gov’t-Industry Project Will Start On ‘Extreme-Job’ Robets, ” The Japanese Economic Journal, Mar. 8, 1983, p. 10.

‘9Haruo Shimada, “Japanese Postwar Industrial Growth and

Labor-Management Relations, paper presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of American Industrial Relations Association,

December 1982, p. 7.

provides the basis for quality circles at firm,

plant, and workshop levels. It is also effective

in the introduction and use of new technologies

such as PA.

There are two principal types of worker participation in Japan that exist primarily in the

private sector: 1) direct shop floor participation, such as small group participative activities like quality control circles; and 2) indirect

representational forms, such as labor-management consultation systems.40 Small production

study groups have played a vital role in developing employee participation in problemsolving. Unions and quality control circles

have often been involved in designing robot

applications within the plants. Those companies with the most active quality control circles have also been the leaders in the use of

robots .41

Participatory work structures represent one

of a number of actions designed to deal with

the effects of labor shortages in Japan.42 They

were usually introduced as part of a corporate

strategy to make firms more attractive to

highly educated potential recruits and to

reduce the likelihood of turnover and labor

unrest. Thus, worker participation originally

was more an obligation of each employee than

an opportunity to actively participate in solving workplace problems.

Quality control circles often provide a good

opportunity to promote “humanization of

work” in the workplace.43 Workers are taught

fairly simple statistical quality control techniques and modes of problem-solving. They are

guided by leaders, often foremen, in the selec-

—

‘“Robert E. Cole, “Participation and Control in Japanese Industry, ” prepared for Conference on Productivity, Ownership

and Participation, Agency for International Development, U.S.

Department of Labor, May 1983.

“Paul H. Aron, “Robotics in Japan: Past, Present, Future, ”

a presentation to Robots VI Conference, March 1982, p. 4.

42 Cole, op. cit.

4’Takeshi Inagami, “QC Circle Activities and the Suggestion

System, ” Highlights in Japanese Industrial Relations, The Japane`se Institute of Labour. 1983, p. 67.
210 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—— —— - —— —— — — — —— —.- — —. — ——

tion and solving of job-related quality problems.

The second type of worker participation is

the labor-management consultation system, a

representational form of participation by

union officials on behalf of employees in which

employers and employees discuss management policies and plans.44 The focus is on improving communications between management and labor, improving working conditions, and stabilizing labor relations. Joint consultation provides a framework in which negotiations on working conditions can be conducted on a continuous basis rather than as

a focus of collective bargaining. Participants

do not view them as providing the primary basis for increased worker participation in management.

While popular accounts of Japanese labormanagement relations highlight labor’s input,

on closer inspection it can be seen that managerial control is strong. Matters relating to

the operation of the firm, production, and personnel are most often settled by company notification or explanation.4s Management retains its prerogative to act unilaterally but,

where possible, uses the joint consultation system to solicit worker and union opinion. Management carefully controls and guides the activities of small group participatory activities,

and would resist more direct threats to its prerogatives that might be tried through legislative means.46 This system is facilitated by

a relatively high level of homogeneity in the

Japanese population and labor force.

The Japanese system offers several advantages relative to the introduction of new technology. Generally, where new technology is introduced workers are reassigned rather than

laid off. However, there are signs that this

Japanese practice, which in the past has been

an understanding and not contractual in nature, may be changing (see ch. 4). Recently

there has been evidence that Japanese workers are becoming more concerned about the

impact of new technology on employment.

“Cole, op. cit.

“Ibid.

“[bid.

Unions have begun to win agreements aimed

at protecting workers against the potential

negative effects of automation.

For example, Nissan Motor Co. and auto

workers have negotiated what is likely to become a model technology agreement for other

unions. It requires “consultation” between

labor and management before the introduction

of labor-saving automation and prohibits the

company from dismissing or laying off workers because of new technology. Nissan promises not to downgrade positions or reduce

wages and working conditions, and agrees to

provide union members with necessary education and training to facilitate adjustment, in

accordance with their aptitude and ability. The

fact that this is a written agreement rather

than a tacit understanding makes this contract important and unique in Japan.

While quality control circles are widely used

in Japan, it is interesting to note that the Japanese companies operating in the United

States have been much more cautious about

instituting such mechanisms because of differences in the work environment and a much

more heterogeneous work force. Where such

practices are instituted, they are usually introduced very gradually to allow time for

workers to adjust to the information-sharing

and to learn the problem-solving techniques

of quality circles. The Nissan truck plant in

Smyrna, Tenn., which opened in 1983, will be

watched carefully as an experiment in Japanese management applied to an American

work force. Early reports give it high marks,

but some observers suggest that it is too early

to evaluate how well it will work over time.

Norway and Sweden

There are several Scandinavian attempts to

ensure worker involvement in anticipating and

controlling the effects of new technologies on

the workplace.

In both Norway and Sweden, workplace legislation is in effect and workers are represented on corporate boards.

In Norway, the unions, employers, and the

state have tried to shape the actual direction
Ch. 5— The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment ● 211

—— — . —

of technological change.47 The 1977 Working

Environment Act gave workers the right of

advance notice of all proposed technological

changes, access to company data banks, and

participation in all decisions that affect the

form and content of their jobs.48

Legislation has specified conditions to the

extent of mandating efforts to avoid undiversified, repetitive work and work that is governed by machine or conveyor belt in such a

manner that the employees themselves are

prevented from varying the speed of the work.

Otherwise “efforts shall be made to arrange

the work so as to provide possibilities for variation and for contact with others, for connection between individual job assignments, and

for employees to keep themselves informed

about production requirements and results. ”49

Technology agreements negotiated by labor

and management also affect the ability of

workers to influence the direction of workplace

technological change.”) They establish a variety of rights for workers in the areas of information, training, participation, and bargaining concerning technology-related matters in

the workplace. Workers are guaranteed both

job-related training and general education

about technical systems and their design.

In Sweden, two laws protect employees in

relation to workplace changes. The first is the

Act on Employee Participation in Decisionmaking (1977), which obliges the employer to

inform and negotiate with the union before

making decisions on any major operational

changes, including implementation of new

technology .5’ The second law, the Swedish

‘%e.slie Schneider, “Technology Bargaining in Norway. ” pre

pared for the Ministry of Local Government and Labor, Oslo,

Norway, March 1983,

‘“Robert Howard, “Brave New Workplace, ” Work”ng Papers

for a New Societjr, vol. 7, November-December 1980, p. 28.

‘

gAct of 4 February 1977 relating to Worker Protection and

Working Environment, as subsequently amended last by Act

of 13 June 1980, Directorate of Labour Inspection, Oslo, Norway, November 1980.

5“Schneider, op. cit.

51 Kerstin Norrby and Barbara Klockare, The Swedish Agency for Administrative Development, “Decision-making, Assessment of Effects and Participation Regarding Computerization

in the Swedish Governmental Administration, a paper to the

Conference on System Design, IFIP Working Group, September

1982.

Work Environment Act of 1978, sets out general demands that can be made with regard

to working conditions. It includes basic rules

on both the physical and the psychological

work environment. An essential point is that

employees are to have an opportunity to influence the design of the work environment.

The focus is on the working premises, equipment, techniques, and working methods. Both

laws are supplemented by collective agreements between employers and employees.

In addition to work environment laws, indications are that the Swedish Government is

committed to research in how changing technologies affect workers. 52 The pivotal research

institution in the work environment field in

Sweden is the research department of the

National Board of Occupational Safety and

Health. A large proportion of total funds allocated for work environment research in Sweden is awarded by The Swedish Work Environment Fund. Founded in 1972 and financed

by means of a payroll tax levied on all employers, the Fund supports research and development, training, and information to improve the

work environment in a broad sense, including

co-determination (requirement that employers

negotiate with unions on any plans for major

changes in company activities), psychosocial

work environment problems, and work organization. 53

The Swedish Centre for Working Life is an

independent research institute supported by

the Fund and the government. It focuses on

research problems concerned with individuals

and groups in working life, industrial relations,

co-determination, the organization of work,

and its mode of operation.

A recent summary of considerations and

proposals put forth by the Swedish Commission on the Effects of Computerization on Employment and Working Environment, published in April 1981, states:

“Dennis Chamot and Michael D. Dymmel, ‘(Cooperation or

Conflict: European Experiences With Technological Change at

the Workplace” a publication of the Department for Professional Employees, AFL-CIO, Washington, D. C., 1981.

““Programme of Activities and Budget 1981 -82-1983-84,”

Swedish Work Environment Fund, 1982.
212 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

It goes without saying that the Commission holds the view that all possibilities to influence how computer technology is used

should be fully exploited.64

This includes the use of industrial robots to

eliminate heavy, monotonous, restrained jobs

and jobs that are hazardous to health. The

Commission also concluded that an increase

in the use of computer technology in manufacturing processes increases isolation at work.

It endorsed new technology if its use includes

both an effort to create a better working environment and co-determination exercised by

employees.

West Germany

In West Germany, research in the areas of

humanization of work and co-determination

are considered to be closely related.55 The government has funded work humanization projects since 1974, including safety and health

and work reorganization. Germany’s co-determination law requires that workers be represented by an elected works council that works

with management on productivity and other

issues. However, the extent to which ordinary

employees have input to the works councils

is questionable.56 German managers are legally

obligated to negotiate all major decisions at

the plant level with the work councils and submit the outcome to the supervisory boards

(equivalent to American boards of directors).

According to a recent analysis, “Their [German] commitment to technological expertise,

enduring customer relationships, long-term

results, and the achievement of consensus

leads most successful German companies to

work closely with their employees in integrating new technology with the capabilities of the

work force. “57

—- .

“From a summary of considerations and proposals put forward by the Swedish Commission on the Effects of Computerization on Employment and Working Environment in its report

“Computerization in Industry-Effects on Employment and

Working Environment, ” April 1981.

55Charnot and Dymmel, op. cit.

““Moving Beyond the Assembly Lines,” Business Week, July

27, 1981, p. 87.

“Joseph A. Limprecht and Robert H. Hayes, “Germany’s

World-Class Manufacturers, ” Harvard Business Review,

November-December 1982, p. 142.

During the 1960’s, the social implications

of increasing automation and rationalization

measures fueled the debate over the reform of

working conditions. In addition to the prevention of accidents and occupational diseases,

the improvement of working conditions began

to include, for example, ergonomic workplace

and machine design, as well as new forms of

organization of work permitting greater individual responsibility and more opportunities

for acquiring qualifications.

These activities gave rise to the Humanization of Working Life Program in 1974 in the

Federal Ministry of Research and Technology

and the Federal Ministry for Labor and Social

Affairs. The general objective of this research

program is to investigate the possibilities for

better adapting working conditions to human

needs. It combines the goal of establishing improved health protection on the job with that

of achieving better opportunities for employees to gain qualifications and develop their

abilities. The program includes projects to

redesign workplaces where monotony is often

combined with time pressure, social isolation,

and a low skill requirement.

The program, which is supported at least in

principle by all the parties represented in the

German Bundestag and by both employer organizations and trade unions, has as its aims:

●

●

●

●

to formulate safety data, standards, and

minimum requirements for machinery, installations, and workplaces;

to develop work technologies adapted to

the worker;

to elaborate models for work organization

and workplace design; and

to disseminate and apply scientific findings and industrial experience.

The humanization program has led to increased sensitivity to problems regarding

working conditions and work rationalization

in industry and administration, and to an interdisciplinary science in the field of labor, It

has given rise to projects to improve health

protection on the job, in particular projects

looking at stress problems and the development of technologies for the reduction of
...—-——

Ch. 5— The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment . 213

heavy, dangerous, or monotonous work. The

program also fosters experiments with new

forms of work organization, aimed at new technical and organizational production systems.

The results of humanization research have

already been incorporated into national legislation in several cases–e.g., into the 1975 Workplaces Regulation Act and the guidelines governing it. Since mid-1980, the Federal Center

for the Humanization of Work has been affiliated with the Federal Center for Occupational

Safety and Accident Research as an independent organizational unit. It is responsible for

incorporating the results of government-promoted research concerning the humanization

of work into everyday working conditions.

One of the workplace areas to be studied is

the introduction of robots, with a view to

avoiding the creation of jobs that are uninteresting and monotonous for humans and that

may entail considerable strain and stress. Continued support is to be given to improved

forms of work organization as well as to solution of technical and organizational problems

in general.58

JsAlfred Ha9sencamp and Hans-Jurgen Bieneck, ‘‘Technical

and Organizational Changes and Design of Working Conditions, ” a summary of the experiences and results of the West

German research program “Humanization of Work, ” 1982.

Appendix 5A.—Methodology Employed in OTA

Case Studies of the Effects of Programmable Automation

on the Work Environment

Case 1

Small Metalworking Shops

This case study is based on visits to seven metalworking shops in Connecticut. They were chosen

from a group of sites suggested by the Numerical

Control Society, a trade magazine, and two interviewees at the job shops themselves. They span

a range of shop sizes. Shops were not chosen for

study because of their “representativeness”; indeed, the chief selection criterion was that the

establishment be particularly advanced, for its

size, in the number of NC machines in use. Every

shop contacted agreed to participate in the study.

The final group of 7 was drawn from a pool of 11

shops that agreed to participate.

Visits lasted from a half day to a full day. At

each site, the researchers began by speaking to the

president or vice president, generally for an hour

or more. Subsequent interviews were held with

programers, foremen, working foremen, and shopfloor workers. For the most part, the people interviewed were selected by a manager or foreman

based on the research team’s preferences for talking to a cross section of the shop’s work force. In

cases where the researchers asked to speak to a

specific person, these requests were honored. At

some shops, the interviewers were invited to select

any of the employees for interviews.

Interviews were open-ended, based on a prepared interview guide. Generally, they lasted from

one-half to 1 hour, with the longest running over

2 hours. Nearly all of the interviews were taperecorded, with the consent of the interviewees, and

most of the quotations used in the report are based

on transcripts of the taped interviews. Interviews

were held in an office or room in the plant. In some

cases, they were conducted in the president’s or

vice president’s office. With very few exceptions,

the interviewers were alone with the interviewee.

All interviews except one focused on one person

only; at one plant, the president and vice president

were interviewed together.

Altogether, four presidents, four vice presidents,

five programers. five foremen and working leaders,

one quality control supervisor, one full-time machine repairer, and fifteen machinists and operators were interviewed.
214 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Agricultural Equipment Company

This case study is based on data gathered during a 6-day trip to the city in which the components plant and the nearby tractor assembly facility are located. Three days were spent touring the

company’s manufacturing facilities and conducting interviews with members of management. The

balance of the visit was spent interviewing members of the local union.

The company was extremely cooperative, providing the research team with an excellent overview of plant operations and affording them freedom to explore areas of particular interest in

greater depth. The first 2 days were spent gaining a broad introduction to the components plant

and the tractor assembly facility, and the third day

was spent in followup investigation and interviews, particularly at the site of the flexible

manufacturing system (FMS). Interviews were

conducted with company personnel ranging from

the vice president for manufacturing to first-line

supervisors in the tractor assembly plant. Also interviewed were the plant manager; the managers

of manufacturing engineering, mechanical services, and process and tooling; several supervisory

personnel; and the project manager and systems

manager for the FMS—all at the components

plant. Interviews were also conducted with the

plant manager, manager of manufacturing engineering, and the controller at the tractor assembly

plant.

Interviews were open-ended, based on a prepared interview guide but tailored to the individual

being interviewed, and lasted from 15 minutes to

several hours. Tours and interviews were supplemented by several brief presentations by company

personnel focusing on different aspects of automation at the company, by written materials supplied

by the company, and by relevant articles and information obtained by the researchers from other

sources.

The worker interviews on which this study is

based were arranged by the union, the United

Automobile Workers, and carried out in the local

union hall. The local union was very cooperative

about arranging interviews and providing the

space in which to conduct them. A semistructured

open format, similar to that used at the company

but designed specifically for interviewing workers,

was used to interview people both individually and

in groups. The union was asked to arrange interviews with workers from the FMS area and from

those utilizing the company’s labor reporting system. Also requested were interviews with workers

from the components plant and the tractor works,

in skilled trades as well as production, of varying

ages and seniority. A total of 18 workers were interviewed through the union. In this situation

selection bias was unavoidable, but the workers

interviewed appeared to represent a range of viewpoints with respect to computerized technology.

Even the workers who were most critical of the

way in which the company was implementing new

programmable technologies expressed a basic respect for the company and its management.

Commercial Aircraft Company

The fieldwork for this case was conducted during an 8-day visit to the west coast in April 1983.

Before the arrival of the research team, contact

was made with the company and with the two major unions at the research sites, the international

Association of Machinists and a professional engineers’ association. Both the company and the

unions were very cooperative, allowing access and

arranging interviews which form the basis of the

analysis.

At the company, a series of interviews had already been scheduled when the researchers arrived. Interviewees were selected by the company

management based on the researchers’ request for

interviews with a wide range of managerial personnel, from higher level management involved in the

implementation and management of computerized

technology to first-line supervisors in production

departments where programmable automation

was in use. These interviews were supplemented

with additional interviews arranged at the request

of the research team during the 5-day visit to the

company. All interviews with members of management were conducted at or near the worksite of the

particular manager or supervisor, with a member

of management, who acted as host to the research

team, present at the interview.

Interviews were open-ended, and their structure

was based on an interview guide prepared before

the start of the visit. The actual content of each

was tailored to the particular individual being interviewed, based on his role in the company. The

length varied from one half hour to several hours

in length. In some cases, a tape recorder was used,

and all lengthy quotations are transcribed from

the tapes. A few of the interviews were preceded

or followed by prepared presentations which outlined the features of a particular computerized system or technology-related issue at the company.

Followup interviews, where necessary, were conducted by telephone, and additional written ma-
Ch. 5—The Effects of Programmable Automation on the Work Environment Ž 215 — -- —.

terial was obtained from the company. Company

sources were also supplemented with written material available elsewhere.

Interviews with union members were conducted

through the auspices of the two unions. Interviewees were chosen by the unions, based on general guidelines set by the research team. The

researchers asked to interview members of the

bargaining unit who were affected by new technology, particularly engineers affected by the use of

computer-aided design, and machinists and other

workers (e.g., inspectors, programmers, and layout

workers) affected by computerized technology,

especially NC. Because of the way in which interviewees were selected, the workers interviewed

cannot be viewed as being a randomly selected

sample of all workers at the company. While some

attempt was made to ensure that a range of views

was represented, the intention of the researchers

was to capture a sense of the variety of reactions

to programmable automation in a few selected

work areas, rather than to attempt in a very brief

visit to assemble a “representative” group.

Interviews with union members were conducted

at or near the union hail, and were, like the interviews with managers, open-ended, Again, an interview guide was used, and the specific questions

adapted to the particular employees interviewed.

Most interviews were group interviews, and all

were tape-recorded. Generally, interviews with

union members lasted from 1 to 2 hours, depending on the size of the group.

In total, interviews were conducted with 14

members of management, 4 first-line supervisors,

6 engineers and technicians, and 38 shop floor

employees, as well as with officers of both local

unions, including the presidents.

The Auto Company

The 3-day visit to the auto plant took place in

May 1983, and included an introductory discussion and tour of the plant conducted by the Personnel Department and a brief interview with the

plant manufacturing engineering manager on the

third day. The research team spent the remainder

of the 3 days interviewing workers, shop floor

managers, union stewards, and union committeemen who work in the automated welding facility—

the “body shop. ”

Throughout the visit, both management and the

union cooperated completely with the research

team. The plant management permitted unre-

— .

stricted access to the body shop. The superintendents in the body shop, in turn, allowed unrestricted

access to supervisors and workers. This access included the freedom to move independently around

the shop floor and to speak with workers on break

at their workstations. Only through this unique

cooperation was the research team able to gain,

in a brief time period, a detailed knowledge of how

automation affected individual jobs and how the

workers on these jobs perceived the affects of the

system.

During the 3 days, the research team interviewed:

the welder repair and production superintendent;

two welder repair general foremen and one

welder repair foreman;

one production general foreman and one production foreman;

three welder repairmen;

19 production workers (6 first-shift workers

were interviewed for more than an hour at the

union hall and an additional 15 to 45 minutes

on the job; the remainder were interviewed

either in the union hall or in the plant);

the production and skilled trades’ union stewards on first shift, and the production and

skilled trades committeemen; and

a number of other managers, union officials,

and workers with knowledge of some aspects

of automation and the body shop.

The group above represented about 30 percent

of the production workers, 15 percent of the skilled

tradesmen, 70 percent of the supervisors, and all

of the union officials with first-shift responsibilities in the part of the body shop containing

robots.

Interviews with supervisors, union officials, and

workers were open-ended and loosely structured,

based on a prepared interview guide, The interviews at the union hall were taped, with the consent of the interviewees. The quotations used in

the report are from the taped interviews or from

notes taken during the meetings by someone other

than the principal interviewer. The research team

conducted followup interviews of 15 to 45 minutes

with certain individuals on the second and third

day. Additional followup interviews were conducted with union officials and body shop supervisors over the telephone. An interview of the corporation’s director of manufacturing was also conducted over the telephone.
Chapter 6

Education, Training, and

Retraining Issues
Contents

Page

Summary of Major Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..................219

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......................219

The Changing Context for Education,

Effects of Programmable Automation

Roles for Instruction in a Changing

Categories of Instruction . . . . . . . . .

Current Trends in Instruction . . . . . . .

Changes in Enrollment . . . . . . . . . . .

Changes in Emphasis . . . . . . . . . . . .

Training, and Retraining ,., ... ...22 0

and Other Technologies . .........222

Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232

Challenges Facing the U.S. Instructional System . ....................234

Instructional Requirements for programmable Automation . . . . . . . . . . .234

Case Studies: Selected Instructional Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241

Findings: Roles, Functions, and Capacities of Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241

Needs, Problems, and Trends Common to Industry and Education Programs 244

Career Guidance and Programmable Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249

Job Counseling, Outplacement, and Retraining for Displaced Workers . 252

Education and Training in Europe and Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255

Summary of Comparative Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255

Features of the Japanese Education and Training System With

Relevance for Programmable Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258

Assessment: Capacity of the U.S. Instructional System to Meet

the Challenge Posed by Programmable Automation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260

Current Instructional Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260

Tables

Table No. Page

53. Number of Institutions of Higher Education and Branches by Level,

Control, and State: Academic Year 1981-82 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .228

54. Growth of Full-time Enrollment in Education, by Level

in Selected Countries, 1960-70 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..257

55. Robotics Degree Programs and Course Offerings in North America, 1982 264

Figures

Figure No. Page

18. Percent Change in Public Elementary/Secondary School Enrollment

19

20

21

22

23

24

Between 1971-and 1981, by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........227

Level and Control of Institutions of Higher Education, by State .. ...229

Estimated Enrollments in Vocational Education, 1978-79 . ..........230

Comparison of Years of Formal Instruction Completed by Adults .. ..256

Comparison of Public Expenditures for Education. . ................257

Results of the International Skills Olympics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..258

Results of the International Skills Olympics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..258

25. Maintenance Technician Training at Nissan U. S. A.. . ...............261

26. Manufacturing Technician Training at Nissan U.S.A. . ..............262

27. Manufacturing Supervisor Training at Nissan U.S.A. . ..............263
Chapter 6

Education, Training, and Retraining Issues

— . ————— ————— .— —. ————.—

Summary of Major Findings

Programmable automation (PA) is one of a

number of forces currently reshaping the roles

for and values assigned to education, training,

retraining, and related services such as career

guidance and job counseling.

Strong basic skills in math, science, and

reading serve as the foundation for instruction

for programmable automation. Instruction for

semiskilled and skilled production line workers

in automated facilities must emphasize conceptual and problem-solving skills as much as

motor skills. Instruction for technician-level

occupations common to automated facilities

must focus on the development of multiple

skills (broader training) and on an understanding of how programmable equipment interfaces with other components of the manufacturing process. Instruction for engineers who

work in automated plants must emphasize a

broader based knowledge of engineering operations and stronger management skills.

A key ingredient in successful PA instructional programs is close cooperation between

industry, educators, labor, and government in

such areas as skills assessment, curriculum design, equipment acquisition, location of qualified instructors, and job placement. However,

in most cases, this degree of interjector cooperation is left to chance and often does not

occur.

The present capacities of the U.S. instructional system, characterized by inadequate facilities, shortages of equipment, and an inadequate supply of instructors, may constrain the

establishment of adequate skills-development

strategies for programmable automation. This

is as true for most industry-based instructional programs as it is for programs offered by

more traditional public and private educational institutions. There are no indications that

these barriers to instruction will disappear

over time, without specific, corrective actions.

Population groups served by different types

of instructional programs, as well as the numbers of individuals taking advantage of instructional services, are changing. However,

individuals who are most likely to be affected

by technological and economic change-those

with lower incomes and lower levels of educational attainment-seem to be the least inclined to enroll in instructional programs in

order to develop new, more marketable skills.

Special approaches will be required to ensure

that retraining programs and job counseling/

outplacement assistance geared to the unique

needs of displaced workers are developed and

implemented. In the past, retraining for displaced workers has often been a “force fit, ”

and participation rates have been low.

Introduction

The use of programmable automation in service sector environments, 2) broad-based

manufacturing is one of a number of forces re- economic change induced by U.S. participation

shaping education, training, retraining, and in international markets and shifts in demand

educational guidance/job-counseling services for goods and services, 3) demographic change,

in the United States. Among the other forces and 4) increased interest in education and

creating increased demand for instruction are: training for personal and professional devel1) technological change occurring in office and opment. These forces may, in the long run, fa219
220 ● Computerized Manufacturing AutomatIon: Employment, Education, and the Workplace — —

cilitate or impede the establishment of wellfounded instruction for programmable automation, depending on the aggregate demand

they generate for skills development and the

instructional resources required to address

this demand.

Accordingly, the goals of this chapter are

threefold: to describe how the roles for and values assigned to instruction are changing as a

result of economic, technological, and demographic change and the heightened sense of

the “unknown” created by this change; to examine specific instructional responses to skills

requirements for programmable automation

at this early stage of adoption of the technologies; and to discuss how present capacities

of the U.S. instructional system may affect

skills development strategies for programmable automation in the long term.

A wide variety of sources, including education and training literature, personal interviews, and site visits to manufacturing facilities and instructional centers, were used in developing this account of a changing national

instructional system and in depicting how programmable automation is being addressed by

that system. Fourteen in-depth case studies

created for OTA describe selected, currently

available education, training, and retraining

geared to PA. They served as a particularly

rich source of information in the development

of this section of the report.

The Changing Context for Education,

Training, and Retraining

In 1983, a number of studies were released

which reflected growing national awareness of

the importance of education, training, and retraining to international economic competitiveness, as well as concern over the current

state of elementary, secondary, and postsecondary instruction in the United States.

Among the studies that have received the

most attention are those of the National Commission on Excellence in Education (A Nation

at Risk: the Imperative for Educational Reform);1 the Education Commission of the

States (Action for Excellence: A Comprehensive Plan to Improve Our Nation Schools);2

the Business-Higher Education Forum (America Competitive Challenge: The Need for a

National Response);3 the Twentieth Century

Fund Task Force on Federal Elementary and

Secondary Education Policy (Making the

Grade); 4 

——— . —.—and the Carnegie Foundation for the

‘National Commission on Excellence in Education, A Nation

at Risk: The Imperative for Educational Reform (Washington,

D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, April 1983).

‘Education Commission of the States, Action for Excellence:

A Comprehensive Plan to Improve Our Nation Schools

(Denver, CO1O.: Education Commission of the States, June 1983).

‘Business-Higher Education Forum, America Competitive

Challenge: The Need for a Natiomd Response (Washington,

D. C.: Business-Higher Education Forum, April 1983).

‘Making the Grade: Report of the Twentieth Century Fund

Advancement of Teaching (High School).5 In

addition to emphasizing the obstacles represented by shortages of equipment and qualified instructors-particularly in science and

math—these reports point to the low student

participation rates in science and math beyond

the 1Oth grade, the high levels of functional

illiteracy within the general population, and

the implications these conditions have for continued U.S. economic growth and participation

in a world economy that is increasingly technology-driven. The reports of the National

Commission on Excellence in Education, the

Education Commission of the States, and the

Business-Higher Education Forum all recommend a reassessment of the U.S. educational

system and curricula in light of changing

world conditions, including the growing use

of advanced technologies in the workplace.

Given current levels of concern over the U.S.

competitive position and the links between

continued development of the human resource

and sustained economic growth, it is difficult

Task Force on Federal Elementary and Secondary Education

Policy (New York: Twentieth Century Fund, Inc., 1983).

‘Ernest L. Boyer, High School (Princeton, N. J.: The Carnegie

Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, 1983).
to understand why the relationship between

education and training and economic expansion has recently become a focus of national

attention—especially since the effects of education on the labor force have been the subject of economic analysis for many years. Part

of the answer may lie in traditional economic

measures used to quantify returns on educational investment. These measures examine

the relationship between different levels of

educational attainment and lifetime wages,

without taking into account all other influences on lifetime wages:

In the interest of precision, economic analysis has narrowed human contribution to its

most measurable aspects such as wages and

hours worked. So long as wages and other

measurable evidence of human participation

in the economy were on the rise, everything

was fine, Interested parties, especially educators, were satisfied to know that rates of

return to human investment were high and

increasing as the economy boomed and

wages and leisure increased. With economic

decline and unprecedented demographic

change, however, wage returns on human investment have headed downward. Those who

swallowed the simplistic “human capital”

assumption that wage returns capture the

overall economic return to human resource

development in good times are, unfortunately, hooked when the economy turns sour and

wages decline. What we need is a more sophisticated means for measuring human

quality and its impact on the economy.

Unless we can find such a method, we will

continue to miss the woods for the trees in

assessing the relative importance of human

factors in production.’

Regardless of how the human resource has

been viewed as a factor in production, or how

well its effects on the economy have been

measured, industry, labor, and government

leaders all recognize that a highly developed

human resource pool is critical to maintaining

U.S. competitiveness. Individuals will therefore place pressure on the U.S. instructional

system for programs that develop human

‘A. Carnevale, Human Capital: A High Yield Corporate 1n-

}’estment (Washington, D. C.: American Society for Training

and Development, 1983), pp 13-14.

Ch 6—Education Training, and Retraining Issues ● 221

skills essential to continued work force participation.

The automated manufacturing environment

represents but one of a number of work settings out of which new skill requirements will

emerge in the years ahead. Therefore, it is important not to overemphasize PA-related skills

to the neglect of other types of general and occupation-specific skills. The development of

strong basic skills in math, science, and communication remains an important educational

priority for the work force as a whole. * Given

the increased use of computers in many aspects of American life, the demand for computer literacy programs is on the rise. In addition, there is a need to better prepare individuals for greater exposure to new technologies in their day-to-day lives, whether or not

they choose to be work force participants. This

involves the development of a basic understanding of scientific principles and processes,

as well as of the relationships that exist within

the physical world.7 A recent report of the

National Science Foundation’s Public Understanding of Science Program made reference

to:

. .. the increasing gap between the relatively

small technological elite and the far larger

public that is both poorly equipped to understand new developments, and is effectively

precluded from significant careers related to

science, engineering and high technology.

Thus, to maintain a vigorous and widely representative pool of potential talent for the

technological professions; to assure a base of

awareness and understanding among decision makers of industry, government, and the

press; to encourage the interest and familiarity that are needed to recognize and address

the personal and public decisions related to

technology; and to meet the Jeffersonian

ideal of an informed electorate, . . . an interest

and background of experience with the principles and activities of science is critical. s

*other priorities include increased emphasis on foreign lan13’LMWS from elementary school onward and a renewed emphasis

on humanities, particularly in interdisciplinary programs, such

as ‘‘technology and society.

‘E. Leonard Brown, “Educational Change: Educating for a

Transitional Era, ” F’uturics, vol. 7, No. 3, 1983, pp. 11-14.

“Summary of Grants and Activities: Public Understanding

of Science Program (Washington, D. C.: National Science Foundation, March 1982), p. 4.
222 Ž Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— --

Effects of Programmable Automation

and Other Technologies

OTA’s analysis of employment effects of

programmable automation indicates that computer-based manufacturing technologies will

bring about substantial changes in manufacturing skill requirements over time. However,

several variables complicate the process of

quantifying long-term employment impacts.

The most important of these variables are: 1)

the rate at which programmable automation

is adopted; 2) the flexibility afforded by PA

to combine people and equipment in production in different ways; and 3) changing economic conditions affecting product demand,

frequency of innovation, intensity of competition and, in turn, labor demand within automated manufacturing environments. *

Even at present low levels of utilization, programmable automation is creating new demands for education, training, and retraining

services. In the future, with more widespread

use of advanced manufacturing technologies,

there will be considerable demands made on

the U.S. instructional system for manufacturing-related skills development and for rapid

responses to what may be frequent changes

in skill requirements. For example, in a recent

survey of members of the American Society

for Training and Development’s Technical and

Skills Training Division, 93 percent of the respondents indicated that, based on technological change within their companies: 1) workers

in their firms would require “significant

changes in skills” on an ongoing basis, and 2)

skill changes would typically be required within a relatively short time frame-possibly less

than 1 year.9 Programm able automation will

also stimulate renewed demands for the development of strong, basic skills in reading, math,

and science that serve as the foundation for

PA-related instruction. While some things are

known about the effects of PA on skills re-

*For a more detailed discussion of impacts on employment

and effects on working environment, see chs. 4 and 5.

‘Survey of Technical and Skills Training Division, American

Society for Training and Development, 1983.

Adventurous Hosts: 3-2-1 CONTACT’S young hosts

Kathy (Kelly Pino), Miguel (Frank Gomez), and Robin

(Judy Leak) traveled over 30,000 miles to 80 different

locations around the country in search of adventures

that bring excitement of science alive for young

audiences. This Public Television System series is

one of a number of projects funded in part by the

National Science Foundation’s “Science for Public

Understanding Program. ” 3-2-1 CONTACT is now the

second most popular program on public television. For

more information on this NSF Program, see p. 221

quirements, other things remain, at least for

the time being, unknown—since they will be

the outgrowths of future modes of adoption

and methods of application.

The challenge for educators and trainers will

be to design and deliver instruction that develops skills with which individuals can better deal with the unknown—i.e., with future
Ch. 6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 223

changes in skill requirements brought on by

possible increased use of PA and other factors.

Instruction designed to accomplish these ends

involves the development of: 1) strong basic

skills in reading, math, and science; 2) analytic

and problem-solving skills, which enhance an

individual’s ability to operate effectively in

new or modified work environments; 3) abroad

occupational skills base which in turn broadens individual career choices and serves as a

foundation for the development of additional

skills; 4) specific PA-related skills; and 5) a

recognition of the need for lifelong instruction

to facilitate continued participation in and advancement within the work force. This new,

future-oriented approach to education and

training allows skill levels to advance at a rate

more in keeping with the rate of technological

change and stresses the need for flexibility to

handle frequent job changes within the same

sector or from one sector to another. However,

its central focus is on more extensive development of individual potential. It can help preserve or enhance mobility, reducing the chance

that workers are locked into, or out of, certain

types of work as technologies and the economy

undergo change.

This approach to instruction represents a

blending of guiding principles from two traditional but disparate schools of thought on the

ultimate goal of instruction: “education for

work” (focus: occupational preparation) and

“education for life” (focus: education for individual development). It also softens the

sharp distinctions educators and others have

drawn over the years between vocational/technical education and professional education, for

it stresses the importance of analytic and

problem-solving skills and of broad-based

occupational preparation in both kinds of

instructional experiences. *

*The Shmp, po9t-wOrld War II increase in the mounts of

corporate, in-house technical and skills training activities has

had an influence on the nature and scope of some types of vocational instruction. Instructor and equipment costs associated

with technical and skills training for employees, as well as narrowly defined production line jobs, have led to the development

of in-house training that is often very narrowly focused and

designed to develop only those skills required for discrete

clusters of skills. While this approach to skills instruction has

worked well for industry in many instances, it has influenced

Roles for Instruction in

a Changing Society

The combined effects of technological and

economic change are now observable in many

areas of U.S. society. But technological and

economic change are also having pronounced

effects on the expectations individuals and

employers have for instruction as a tool for

personal and professional growth. These expectations take the form of increased demands

for specific kinds of instructional programs

and services. Accelerated growth in new

course offerings, heightened interest among

educators and trainers in curriculum development, and new skill requirements or skill

shortages expressed by industry are all evidence of these increased demands. Some of

the new instructional demands emerge from

changing skills requirements in particular

working environments. Other instructional demands reflect the impact that technological

and economic change is having on society as

a whole, and as such cannot be attributed simply to factors present within the workplace.

Regardless of the circumstances that result in

new education, training, and retraining requirements, the institutions, organizations,

and agencies that make up the instructional

delivery system in the United States are called

on to develop programs and services that are

responsive to both individual and employer demands and to supply these programs and services on an as-needed basis. Given current and

anticipated rates of economic and technological change, plus the resources presently available to instructional providers for use in addressing demand, individual and employer expectations of the instructional system are not

realistic and the full set of demands cannot be

met. An abstract discussion of representative

individual and employer expectations for instruction, as well as of conditions currently

vocational education as a whole by leading to a reemphasis on

analytic and problem-solving skills development and a movement toward highly specialized instruction. For a discussion

of how high technology is affecting both the process, content

of, and planning strategy for vocational and technical education, see Warren H. Groff, “Impacts of the High Technologies

on Vocational and Technical Education, ANNALS, AAPSS,

No. 470, November 1983, pp. 81-94.
224 Ž Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

faced by instructional providers, will establish

themes that will be examined in greater detail

later in this chapter.

Individual Expectations

OTA found that individuals are concerned

about how economic and technological change

will affect them directly-about the potential

for more frequent job or career changes over

a lifetime, and about the changes in skills requirements that seem likely to occur within

and across established occupations. * Given

the recent, extensive media coverage of factory and office automation, individuals now

in the work force and those preparing to enter

it are particularly sensitive to the potential for

technologically induced skills changes. An

operator of a flexible manufacturing system,

interviewed in the course of an onsite investigation of working conditions in an automated

plant of an agricultural implements manufacturer, put it this way: “If you’re looking at 15

years or so before retirement, you’ll be sweeping floors. ”

Regardless of their age or economic status,

individuals who make the connection between

continued skills enhancement and continued

employment want access to instruction that

makes the most of their previous training,

their core skills, and that corrects basic skills

deficiencies that may be interfering with the

development of additional skills and proficiencies. These individuals-young people preparing for careers, or adults now employed or recently displaced-also need access to reliable

information on skills and occupations in demand, plus assistance in determining what

types of instruction will adequately prepare

them to compete for available jobs and maintain employment. They also seem less willing

than in the past to assume that educators,

trainers, and career counselors know what is

best for them.

*T& diWu99ion of individual expectations is based on tmdysis of education and training literature, numerous discussions

with employees in the course of site visits to industrial facilities, and conversations with students enrolled in a variety of

education and training programs.

Employer Expectations

OTA found that many employers, aware

that economic and technological change will

affect their operations and their competitive

position, are placing increased emphasis on efficiency and productivity. While employers

can influence how advanced automation affects workplaces,* they are concerned about

how the use of advanced automation may

change skill requirements and how these new

skills will be developed in current and future

personnel. This concern derives, in part, from

documented problems of basic skills deficiencies in the current work force and in the U.S.

population as a whole.** Employers often hold

different views from those of educators on the

goals of instruction that occurs prior to employment. The Center for Public Resources

polled representatives of industry, labor, and

the educational community on how well local

school systems prepare individuals for work,

as well as on specific competencies based on

basic math, science, and communications

skills. Survey results revealed a great disparity between industry, labor, and educator

views of what constitutes “work-readiness”

and what types of baseline competencies employers have a right to expect of employees.

The industry/labor respondents had much

higher expectations in the area of practical,

basic competencies than did the educators.10

Regardless of economic sector or geographic

location, it is clear from statements employers

have made in various public forums, including

congressional hearings, that many want an instructional system that produces individuals

*FOr a det~ed di~ssion of PA-related working environment

issues, see ch. 4: “The Effects of Programmable Automation

on the Work Environment. ”

**The concern for basic skills deficiencies in the general population was first brought to light in 1975, with the release of

Adult Performance Level Study, the final report for a 4-year

study conducted by the University of Texas for the U.S. Office of Education. The report indicated that nearly 20 percent

of the adult population of the United States was functionally

illiterate and, because of basic skills deficiencies, unable to perform common daily functions such as writing checks, shopping

for food, or ordering a meal in a restaurant.

IoBw”C s~s in the U.S. Work Force: The &ntrasting Percep

tions of Business, Labor, and Public Education (New York:

Center for Public Resources, November 1982).
- —

Ch. 6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues . 225

— . — . — —.- .

who have a strong foundation of reading,

math, science, and communications skills; who

possess core occupational or professional

skills; and who have acquired analytic and

problem-solving abilities that will enable them

to better adapt to workplace change. In general, employer and individual demands are

quite similar, with the exception of the emphasis employers place on analysis and problem-solving abilities.

Instructional Providers

At the same time individuals and employers

are demanding more from education, training,

and retraining programs and related services,

the U.S. instructional system is facing unprecedented obstacles—including shortages of instructors in science, math, and technical fields

such as engineering; facilities with limited capacities relative to demand; and outdated

equipment, This is true for nearly all of the entities that are engaged in the design and delivery of technical instruction, including industry and labor. Educators in publicly supported elementary, secondary, and postsecondary institutions feel constrained by reduced Federal assistance and lower State and

local revenues being channeled into instructional programs. Industry-based human resource development personnel, especially

those who operate within older industries such

as auto, steel, and rubber, are being forced to

reevaluate their approaches and programs.

They are facing decisions of whether to expand

in-house course and program offerings in the

face of low profit margins, reduced capital investments, and increased foreign competition—conditions that usually precede a reduction in corporate-sponsored instructional

programs-or to attempt to identify other

sources of instruction for their personnel.

Labor unions, while successful in negotiating some agreements that call for the establishment of joint union-management training

funds for workers on the job and for those who

have been laid off, now only represent about

20 percent of the U.S. work force. * Even in

industries within which the majority of workers are unionized, unions are operating under

conditions more conducive to concessions than

to new demands. In addition, for unions and

for industry, there is a basic uncertainty about

how current instructional programs should be

revised or expanded to reflect the increased

use of advanced technologies and changing

skill requirements, given the ongoing nature

of technological change.

Categories of Instruction

In discussing how technological and economic change are affecting instruction, it is

important to examine the types of instructional experiences available to individuals.

OTA found that most instructional services

fall into one of four categories:

1.

2.

3.

4.

Education–initial preparation for work

and for life;

Training-instruction received upon entry to the work site that bridges the gap,

if any, between skills developed through

formal education and skills required to

function effectively in the workplace;

Retraining —all other forms of work-related instruction, including professional

development and skills upgrading; and

Continuing Education–instruction that

is not necessarily directly work- or careerrelated, but often geared to personal development.

. —

*such funds require contributions from employers and individuals. For example, the Los Angeles Electrical Training Trust

was established in 1964 to support education and training programs for apprentices and journeymen covered under the collective bargaining agreement between the International 13rotherhood of Electrical Workers’ Local 11 (IBEW) and the Los

Angeles Chapter of the National Electrical Contractors’

Association. Under the terms of the agreement, Local 11

members contribute to the Trust 5$ for every hour worked,

while their employers contribute 15$ for every employee hour

worked. (For more information, see the IBEW case study included in app. A to this report. )
226 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Clearly this range of services, or experiences,

constitutes in its fullest form a lifelong program of education. While lifelong education

has been talked about in educational circles

for a number of years, the combined influences

of technological and economic change are making the need for lifelong learning a reality for

the current and future work force, regardless

of the skill level considered. Individuals are

coming to realize that, regardless of their level

of educational attainment prior to joining the

work force, there are no guarantees of lifetime

employment. 11 Workplace change can trigger

frequent modifications in job functions, or necessitate job changes or career changes that

—.—

‘

] Samuel Brodbelt, “Education as Growth: Life-long Learning, ” The Clearing House, vol. 57, October 1983, pp. 72-75.

will require the development of new or enhanced skills. Many individuals may find it

necessary to undergo education, training, and

retraining several times during their lifetimes.

Some of these individuals may get tuition assistance and permission to pursue coursework

during working hours from their employers;

others may have to draw on their own time

and resources. Others may qualify for participation in federally funded training programs

or for Federal student loans. Accelerated

change in workplace conditions will also increase the emphasis on quality of instruction

(e.g., curriculum content, qualified instructors,

adequate equipment and facilities) and related

services, such as educational and job counseling. It will also generate greater pressure for

rapid response to frequent changes in instructional requirements.

Current Trends in Instruction

As stated earlier in this chapter, programmable automation is but one of many forces

leading to the development of new instructional priorities. It is important to examine what

is known about current enrollment patterns

and then to focus on new areas of emphasis

for the U.S. instructional system as a whole.

These conditions establish the context for a

discussion of PA-related instruction and an

evaluation of the capacities of the education

and training system.

Changes in Enrollment

Patterns of participation in education, training, and retraining programs have changed

over the past few years. Population groups

served by different types of instructional programs are changing. Adults aged 17 years and

older with specific personal or occupational

goals are participating in education, training,

and retraining programs in record numbers.

This is in sharp contrast to earlier periods,

when the heaviest levels of participation in instruction were found among children and adolescents. These earlier participation rates and

patterns reflected the predominant view of the

function served by instructional programs–

formal education preceded employment and

usually ended when an individual entered the

work force.

According to the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), elementary and secondary school enrollments declined by 13 percent between 1971 and 1981. In roughly the

same period, enrollments in higher education

(2- and 4-year institutions) continued to grow

(see fig. 18). Full-time postsecondary students

and all those enrolled in 4-year colleges and

universities represented only 58.3 percent of

total enrollment by 1982. This is attributed

to the expansion of public 2-year colleges during this period whose programs were often

characterized by open admissions policies,

flexible class schedules, and perhaps a greater

interest in the part-time, working student.

During the period 1970-81, there was evidence

of a shift in enrollment from 4-year schools to

2-year institutions, with enrollments in 4-year

schools dropping from 74 percent to 62 per-
—

Ch. 6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 227

—. —.. . .—— — —— ..- — — - — ———— —.—— —.

Figure 18.— Percent Change in Public Elementary/Secondary School Enrollment Between 1971 and 1981, by State

Deceased, more than national

average ( – 128 percent)

SOURCE National Center for Education Statistics 1982

cent (see table 53 and fig. 19). During the same

period, female participation in higher education grew steadily, while male enrollment remained fairly stable. Minority enrollment

reached 16.5 percent by the fall of 1980: 9.4

percent of postsecondary students were black

and 4.0 percent Hispanic. 12 These data suggest

1 ZThe Con—djtion of Education, 1983 Edition (waSkdn@On,

D. C.: National Center for Education Statistics). During 1981-82,

there were 3,253 institutions of higher education operating in

the United States. Of this number, about one third, or approximately 1,2oO, were 2-year colleges. Institutions that specialized

in 4-year, baccalaureate-level programs and that did not demonstrate significant involvement in post-baccalaureate educathat postsecondary institutions are now serving a much broader audience and, perhaps, a

wider variety of instructional needs. Shift in

tion numbered 730. While the vast majority of 2-year colleges

were public institutions (933), only 607 4-year colleges, were

privately controlled (see table 53 and fig. 19). There were 167

institutions that offered doctoral programs, and another 408

institutions that offered post-baccalaureate programs other

than doctoral programs. Some 545 institutions were classified

as “specialized” by NCES, in that they placed emphasis on a

particular program area, such as engineering. The majority of

specialized institutions were privately controlled and offered

baccalaureate programs, post-baccalaureate programs, or both.

In the “new institution” category, 2-year schools have

dominated since the 1960’s.
228 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 53.-Number of Institutions of Higher Education and Branches by Level, Control, and State:

Academic Year 1981-82

All Institutions 4-Year Institutions 2-Year Institutions

State Total

Public Private Public Private Public Private

50 States and D C

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

District of Columbia

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Ilinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texa s

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin 

Wyoming

U S Service Schools

3,253

59

35

272

45

47

8

19

81

78

12

9

158

74

60

52

57

32

29

56

118

91

70

41

89

16

31

7

26

61

19

294

127

17

136

44

45

202

13

60

20

79

156

14

21

69

50

28

64

9

10

1,498

37

12

19

19

136

27

24

5

37

34

9

63

28

21

29

21

20

12

32

32

44

30

25

28

9

16

6

11

31

16

86

74

11

59

29

21

61

3

33

8

98

9

6

39

33

30

8

10

1,755

22

3

9

16

136

18

23

3

18

44

44

3

95

46

39

23

36

12

17

24

86

47

40

16

61

7

15

1

15

30

3

208

53

6

77

15

24

141

10

27

12

55

58

5

15

30

17

12

34

1

0

558

16

3

3

10

30

18

7

2

9

18

3

4

13

13

8

8

14

7

13

15

15

10

9

13

6

7

2

3

14

6

40

16

6

18

14

24

2

12

7

39

4

4

15

6

12

13

1

9

1,420

15

3

8

10

123

15

19

3

18

35

29

3

83

37

20

22

11

13

65

41

32

10

54

4

13

1

11

26

3

168

34

4

62

11

21

108

9

19

9

40

52

3

14

28

16

8

30

0

0

940

21

9

16

9

106

14

17

3

0

28

16

6

2

50

15

18

21

13

6

5

19

17

29

20

16

15

3

9

4

8

17

10

46

58

5

41

15

13

37

1

21

1

59

5

2

24

27

4

17

7

1

335

7

0

13

3

4

0

0

9

15

0

1

12

9

5

3

14

1

4

3

21

6

8

6

2

0

4

4

0

40

19

2

15

4

3

33

1

8

3

15

6

2

1

2

1

4

4

1

0 — .

NOTE: Branch campuses am counted separately .

SOURCE: National Center for Education Statlstlcs, 1982
. .

Ch. 6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 229

——. . .- . . — . — — — — —

Figure 19.— Level and Control of Institutions of Higher Education, by State

More public than

private institutions

I

More 2-year than

4-year institutions

All other

SOURCE National Center for Education Statistics 1982

enrollment from 4- to 2-year programs may refleet the overall growth in demand for technicians (see ch. 4 of this report), since formal

educational preparation for technician careers

is typically a 2-year associate degree program.

Enrollment in vocational education reached

16.9 million during 1980-81. Among secondary

institutions offering vocational education programs, there were 10.5 million enrollments,

while postsecondary institutions that were regionally accredited, State approved or classified as “other postsecondary” by the Vocational Education Data System, accounted for

a total of 6.4 million enrollments. The most recent information on the types of institutions

offering vocational education programs is for

1978-79. Among secondary institutions offering vocational programs, public secondary

schools, area vocational centers, and secondary-level adult programs accounted for the

largest share of the 19 million enrollments for

that period. By contrast, there was much less

diversity in postsecondary institutions with

significant enrollment levels, with 2-year institutions accounting for 68 percent of all en-
230 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— — —

rollments (see fig. 20). Male and female par- in programs for office occupations and males

ticipation rates in secondary-level vocational predominating in trade and industrial proeducation programs varied according to enroll- grams. Within high schools, there were higher

ment areas, with females outnumbering males proportions of blacks, Hispanics, and other

Secondary

1 + 2 Public secondary school s

(including secondary leve l

adult programs) 12,513,00 0

3 Private secondar y

schools 2200 0

Postsecondary

4 4 year institutions of

higher education 309,000

5 2 year institutions of

higher education: 4423000

6 Public noncollegiat e

postsecondary schools

741,000

7 Private noncollegiate pos t

secondary schools 989,00 0

4 —

SOURCE Natlonal Center for Education Sfatistics
Ch 6—Education, Training, and

—.— — ——.— —.. ————— — —

Refraining Issues ● 231

——-—

minorities enrolled in vocational education

programs than in precollege and other types

of programs.13

The number of adults participating in parttime education programs (usually defined as

a course load of 9 credit hours or less), both

degree-credit and nonacademic, has risen over

the last decade and is expected to continue to

rise into the 1990’s. According to the results

of the 1981 Adult Education Participation

Survey, at the close of the year ending May

1981, over 21 million persons age 17 or older

were enrolled in adult education programs,

representing an increase of over 3 million since

1978, or 17 percent. As was the case in earlier

surveys of adult education, the participation

rates of whites were markedly higher than

those of various other racial/ethnic groups.

Whites represented 88 percent of all those engaged in adult education activities. ” Individual level of prior education attainment continued to be one of the strongest factors influencing participation in adult education.* Income level was another key factor.**

— —

“National Center for Education Statistics, op. cit., 1983. According to NCES, some 27,000 different institutions offered vocational education programs in 1978-79. Over half of these institutions, or 15,700, were publicly fimded comprehensive and

vocational secondary schools. The second largest group of institutions offering vocational education programs, “private noncollegiate postsecondary schools, ” numbered 6,800 and included

vocational/technical institutes and trade, health, and business

schools. Also included among the providers of vocational education in 1978-79 were approximately 1,100 2-year and 600 4-year

institutions.

“Survey of Participation in AduJt Education, conducted by

the Bureau of the Census for the National Center for Education Statistics, 1981.

*“For both 1978 and 1981, there was a direct positive relationship between the numbers of years of schooling and the rate

of participation in adu)t education. Persons with an eighth grade

education or less participated in adult education at a rate of

only 2 percent in 1981. On the other hand, 31 percent of persons with more than 4 years of college had taken part in an

adult education activity during the year. A little over 11 percent of high school graduates with no college experience participated in adult education, while over 26 percent of those with

4 years of college participated. The correspondence between

higher educational attainment and greater participation in adult

education was evident across all racial/ethnic groups, and was

most notable among females. Within each racial/ethnic group,

the more well-educated an individual was, the more likely he

or she would participate in adult education activities. The relationship between greater attainrnent and participation was even

more pronounced among females than among males. Male participation rates ranged from 2 percent for those with less than

Work-Related Instruction

By 1981, approximately 83 percent of those

indicating participation in adult education

were in the work force—some 17 million people. Of these, 70 percent held white-collar positions, including professional and technical

jobs. The 21 million individuals participating

in adult education activities in 1981 had over

37,000 courses from which to choose. Close to

half of the courses they took were within the

fields of business (23 percent), health (14 percent) and engineering (10 percent), and approximately 60 percent participated for job-related

reasons. For 42 percent of the men and 26 percent of the women, employers provided some

or all of the tuition. Expenditures for adult education in 1981 totaled $2.2 billion; the average expenditure per participant per course was

$120. Approximately 54 percent of the adult

education courses were provided by schools;

the remainder were offered by industry, community organizations, government agencies,

and others. ’s

Industry and Labor-Provided Instruction

Two important components of the U.S. instructional system whose activities are not

fully captured in the description of enrollments

provided above are industry and the labor

movement. While there are no data on total

enrollment in industry-based instructional programs, the American Society for Training and

Development estimates that the private sector spends between $30 billion and $50 billion

. .

9 years of formal schooling to over 28 percent for those with

5 or more years of college. While women with an eighth grade

education or less participated at a rate of only 2 percent, those

with 5 or more years of college participated at a rate of almost

36 percent, 8 percentage points higher than men with the same

level of schooling. ” (National Center for Education Statistics,

op. cit., 1983).

**In general the higher the income, the greater the rate of

participation, In 1981, the participation rate for those with incomes less than $7,500 was 6 percent, while approximately 19

percent of individuals with incomes of $50,000 or more participated. Adults residing in metropolitan areas comprised 72 percent of adult education participants. Participation rates relative

to population were higher for the Western States (27 percent)

than for the North Central States (approximately 14 percent),

the Northeast (10 percent), or South (11 percent).

‘

5 National Center for Education Statistics, op. cit., 1983.

25-452 0 - 84 - 16 : QL , 3
232 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—— .— - —.. - — — —.—— —- — ———— —

annually on such programs.* Unpublished Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates suggest that in 1982 there were 287,000 persons

enrolled in apprenticeship programs in the

United States. This represents a decline of

33,000 since 1980.** While apprenticeship represents only one of a number of types of training offered by industry in cooperation with labor unions and labor organizations, there are

no data available to measure the degree of

labor involvement in nonapprenticeship instruction.

In summary, data available on enrollments

in elementary, secondary, postsecondary, vocational, and adult education seem to show

that while the numbers of participants under

the age of 17 have been declining, there have

been increases over the past few years in adult

participation. However, given the high levels

of educational attainment, high incomes, relative youth, and ethnic/racial makeup of those

participating in instruction, individuals within

the work force who are at greatest risk due to

technological and economic change are those

least predisposed to enrolling in courses that

may lead to new skills development.

Changes in Emphasis

National recognition of the role that human

resource development plays in continued economic growth is leading to changes in instructional priorities, especially for education and

training that occurs prior to employment. New

areas of emphasis that are already having an

impact on curriculum are strong basic skills

in math, science, and communication; and

computer literacy.

Basic Skills

While there are skill requirements associated with particular workplaces that change

—. —-—-—

*ThiS i9 a rough estimate of the total, annual industry =-

penditure. ASTD is cooperating with the Department of Labor

(DOL) to establish mechanisms for systematically gathering

data on industry-based education and training activities, **The progl-~ for tracking the numbers of registered apprentices on an ongoing basis was eliminated as a result of DOL

budget reductions and program reorganization in fiscal year

1982.

over time, there are some types of skills so important that they are widely accepted as essential to individual and economic growth. Development of these skills within the individual

serves as a foundation for higher order personal and career skills. Development of these

skills is also necessary for exercising most

rights of individual citizenship. The skills that

comprise this group, commonly referred to as

“basic skills, ” have changed over time to reflect economic, scientific, technological, and

social change. Basic skills as currently defined

are under national scrutiny to determine how

viable they are and whether there are additional skills that are now so critical to individual

and national growth that they should be added

to the core group.

Since the Colonial era, the need for basic proficiencies in mathematics, reading, and writing

has been recognized by educators as a central

goal of instructional programs for children and

adults. With the creation of a public education

system in the United States during the 19th

century, the goal was to provide to all schoolage residents of the United States, including

recent immigrants who represented a significant portion of the manufacturing work force

during the Industrial Revolution, the opportunity to develop these skills or proficiencies.

These basic skills were to be developed in the

primary grades and were to serve as the foundation for both the vocational and academic

tracks established as a part of the 19th-century public school system.16 17

Following the reemphasis on basic skills at

the founding of the public education system,

the next major reexamination of basic skills

and their relation to occupational preparation

occurred in the 1950’s, when increased concern

over national defense and a national commitment to manned space exploration led to the

enactment of the National Defense Education

Act.* This legislation encouraged secondary

IELawrence A Cremin, Public Education (New York: Basic

Books, Inc., 1976).

17~1Cohen, “Thehdugtrial Education Movement, 1906-17, ”

American Quarterly, vol. 20, No. 1, spring 1968, pp. 95-96.

*~me wo~d ~@e that basic skills deficiencies that surfad

during World War II among American military recruits led to

another national examination of how basic skills were being addressed in elementary and secondary education.
Ch. 6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues • 233

and postsecondary institutions to place additional emphasis on the development of strong

science and math skills. The act also sought

to increase the supply of scientists and technical personnel through individual scholarships and low-interest loan programs. During

this period, recognition of the increasing importance of the sciences for vocational and occupational preparation and for understanding

key national issues led to a redefining of “basic

skills’ to include a foundation in the sciences.

And for a time, the development of strong basic skills in this broader sense was a national

priority.

It is difficult to determine exactly when emphasis on the development of strong basic

skills diminished. However, employers began

to voice concerns about basic skills deficiencies in entry-level personnel in the early 1970’s.

The change in emphasis on basic skills may

have been related to the broad range of social

issues that affected the educational system

beginning in the mid-1960’s. The list of mandates for the public education system grew

rapidly in the late 1960’s and 1970 ‘s. Educational equity emerged as a top priority as a

result of the urban crisis, recognition of high

levels of unemployed minority youth, and the

passage of Federal legislation requiring school

desegregation. With the passage of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, the

public schools were charged with ensuring

that equal educational opportunity was extended to various target populations, including minorities, the economically disadvantaged, and the handicapped. Perhaps with the

resources and attention directed at this and

other important new educational priorities,

federally funded educational institutions may

have inadvertently reemphasized basic skills

development. Changing societal goals and values, as well as changing demographics, have

presented challenges to educators since the

turn of the century. And, at present, schools

are caught between the requirements of an old

society, with its inherent goals and values, and

the requirements of an emerging, more technological society .18

Computer Literacy and the Basic Skills

In the 1980’s, continued advances in information and communications technologies and

the growing use of computers in the workplace, in education, and in the home have

created an awareness of the value of a “computer literate” population. Computer literacy

as a term came into use in the mid-1970’s.

Since that time, there have been a variety of

interpretations of what it means to be “computer literate."19 20 While computer literacy

can encompass varying levels of knowledge of

computer technology, it usually refers to basic

keyboard skills, plus a working knowledge of

how computer systems operate and of the general ways in which computers can be used. For

example, Boeing Computer Services, a firm

that offers nationally a range of courses relating to computer technology, covers the following topics in its “Personal Computer Literacy”

course:

. computer terminology;

● computer manuals (documentation);

● computer keyboards;

. diskette organization;

● computer files; and

● general operating practices.

Based on the variety of environments within

which individuals are affected by computer

technology, as well as the importance of promoting understanding of science and technology within the general population, educators

and others are once again revisiting the definition of “basic skills” and determining whether

—-.

‘

aWilliam K. Elser, “The American School Dilemma: On the

Upside of the Third Wave, ” The Clem”ng House, October 1983.

‘

gRonald E. Anderson, “National Computer Literacy, 1980, ”

Computer Literacy: Issues and Directions for 1985 (New York:

Academic Press, 1982).

*“Dorothy K. Dennger and Andrew R. Molnar, “Key Components for a National Computer Literacy Program, ” Computer

Literacy: Issues and Directions for 1985 (New York: Academ”c

Press, 1982).
234 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—.

it should be expanded to include computer

literacy.

Critics of computer literacy as an instructional priority question its value to the population as a whole; they cite continuing advances

in software technology that will increase ease

of computer use and eliminate the need for formal instruction. For example, alternative input devices such as the light pen, the “mouse,”

and voice command are now becoming available and are particularly popular with workplace personnel who are uncomfortable with

keyboarding, such as managers.21 In addition,

a major obstacle to achieving widespread computer literacy continues to be the high level

of functional illiteracy in the U.S. population.

Most recent estimates indicate that one out

of five Americans lacks sufficient reading,

writing, and math skills to perform such com- —

“Craig Zarley, “The Wide World of Alternative Input

Devices, ” Personal Computing, February 1984, pp. 129, 131,

133-34, and 137.

men, day-to-day functions as filling out a job

application or handling personal finances. *

The business community has become increasingly concerned about basic skills deficiencies

among employees, including college graduates.

These deficiencies represent major obstacles

to professional performance as well as to continued professional advancement. In a recent

survey of representatives of industry, trade

unions, and local school systems, two-thirds

of the industry representatives and the majority of the union representatives indicated that

basic skills deficiencies in employees limit advancement opportunities. And, while the survey indicated that a variety of cooperative activities existed between industries and

schools, there were few cooperative programs

aimed specifically at basic skills development. 22

*% ~femnw to university of Texas study of adult illiteracy

cited earlier in this chapter on p. 224.

“Center for Public Resources, op. cit., 1982.

Challenges Facing the U.S. Instructional System

Instructional providers are being asked to

take on an increasing number of responsibilities relating to human resource development.

First, they are faced with continuing efforts

to upgrade the skill levels of the U.S. population as a whole–specifically through the development of basic language, reading, math,

and science proficiencies. At the same time,

they are charged with addressing the need for

developing new skills and capacities, such as

computer literacy and a basic understanding

of science and technology within the general

population. In addition, they must continually review programs and services relating to

vocational and professional development in

the light of economic and technological

change. It is within this context that the instructional requirements for programmable

automation must be examined.

Instructional Requirements for

Programmable Automation

Some of the education, training, and retraining requirements linked to the use of programmable automation in manufacturing cannot be

distinguished from instructional requirements

linked to the increased use of advanced information and communications technologies in

nonmanufacturing work settings—e.g., the

need for a strong foundation of basic skills and

for computer literacy is also linked to the use

of computer-based technologies in public and

private sector office work sites. Other current

impacts on the U.S. instructional system are

directly attributable to programmable

automation and its effects on skills within existing manufacturing occupations—those

within the production-line, technician, engi-
—

Ch. 6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 235

— — — —

neering, and operations management groups.

It is this distinct set of PA implications for

vocational and technical education, training,

and retraining that will be the focus of this section of the chapter.

It should be noted that certain conditions

limit this discussion of instructional requirements for PA. First, advanced manufacturing

technologies are now in limited use. While PA

adoption will increase, patterns of use to date

have not led to investigations of skill requirements and accompanying instructional needs

that go beyond what may be unique requirements of individual firms. Secondly, the literature on PA-related skills and on instruction

for automated manufacturing environments is

thin, consisting almost entirely of very general

descriptions of individual courses or programs.

Because of these limitations, observations

made in this section of the chapter on instructional needs for PA are based in part on 14 indepth case studies of 20 existing instructional

programs that were prepared for OTA in conjunction with this assessment.

Instructional Requirements for

Production Line Skills

For jobs common to production work in automated facilities, there appears to be a greater need to develop the ability to apply conventional manufacturing skills in new, more conceptual ways. For example, in a Cincinnati

Milacron, Inc. (CMI) training program for employees of firms that purchase CM I computerized numerical control (CNC) equipment,

operators learn to interact with the control

panel and to monitor rather than constantly

interact with the equipment. CM I instructors

stress that while students, especially older machinists, need to learn to use their knowledge

of machine operations (conceptual) more than

they may have in the past, their knowledge of

traditional machining operations (motor) will

enable them to anticipate CNC machine motions and functions.23 Overall, electronic control of production machinery of all types is ex23Cincinnati-Milacron case study, 1983.

pected to reduce demand for motor skills and

increase the demand for conceptual skills.24

Instruction for some technician-level occupations is quite similar in some instances to

instruction for skilled trades occupations (e.g.,

electricians and electronic technicians), given

the similarities between certain skilled trades

jobs and selected technician-level jobs. But

where distinctions can be drawn-e. g., for robotics, programable equipment field service,

and NC part programing technicians-the

focus of technician-level instruction is now on

the development of multiple skills (greater skill

breadth) and of an understanding of how programmable equipment interfaces with other

components of the manufacturing process.

Traditionally, limited employer-provided instruction has been made available to semiskilled and skilled production personnel beyond apprenticeship and/or entry-level

training. PA has resulted in more emphasis on

training for semiskilled and skilled worker

groups. For example, like many other General

Motors’ facilities, the “S” Truck Plant examined in an OTA case study had had no formal

mechanisms for delivering in-plant, classroom

and laboratory training to shop floor workers

prior to the installation of programmable

equipment in 1980. Since the plant education

and training department staff lacked the technical expertise to provide such instruction,

training for shop floor workers took the form

of on-the-job training or was provided by

equipment vendors. The plant’s “New Technology Training Program” established a permanent technical training group and created

an awareness among plant management of the

need for an in-plant training/applications lab

that included equipment designated for training purposes.25

Production personnel responsible for equipment/systems operation, and/or maintenance

and repair most often receive their training

from vendors of programmable equipment and

systems. Through these programs, production

“Barry Wilkinson, The Shopfloor Politics of New Twhno]-

ogy (London: Heinemann Educational Books, 1983).

“General Motors case study, 1983.
236 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation. Employment, Education, and the Workplace

. — — — .—.— — . . —

staff, along with all other types of manufacturing personnel, are oriented to general equipment/system features and operation. Rarely

is the training designed to address the unique

applications within a particular plant or facility.* There are exceptions among vendors,

however. Cincinnati Milacron, for example, offers formalized customer training courses for

its NC and CNC machines and robots, but will

also develop instruction geared to particular

customer applications and will provide training design consulting services on request.26 All

five companies studied who were producers of

programmable equipment or systems —including Computervision, CADAM Inc., Cincinnati

Milacron, Inc., GCA, and Automatix--provide

informal on-the-job training to customers on

an as-needed basis to supplement instruction

provided at installation. Formal training programs range from 21⁄2 days to 3 weeks.

Both producer- and user-provided training

for production personnel stresses how to operate, monitor, maintain, and repair programmable equipment or systems. In-plant courses examined which were provided by user firms

were very narrowly focused and intensive,

with training periods of 1 to 2 weeks.27

In some instances, PA-related training for

skilled production personnel with some previous exposure to electromechanical technology

is broader in scope. Presumably, these workers

are graduates of apprenticeship programs and

have broader skills on which to base instruction. For example, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers’ Local 11 Electrical

Training Trust in Los Angeles County, Calif.,

provides voluntary training to journeymen

*ThiS wa9 one import~t finding Of the OTA-sponsored

survey of views of education, training, and retraining for programmable automation. For more information on the survey,

see Automation and the Workplace: Selected Labor, Education

and Tra”m”ng Issues (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Congress, Office

of Technology Assessment, OTA-TM-CIT-25, March 1983).

“Cincinnati Milacron case study, 1983.

“In-plant, user firm training was examined at the following

companies/plants: 1) a large aircraft manufacturer (asked not

to be identified); 2) Texas Instruments; 3) CADAM Inc., a subsidiary of Lockheed Corp. and a producer of computer-aided

design software; 4) Cincinnati Milacron, a vendor of robots,

computer-aided machine tools, and machine controls; 5) a General Motors’ “S” Truck Plant; and 6) Westinghouse Corp. ’s

Defense and Electronics Systems Center.

electricians on the installation and maintenance of programmable controllers. The training is designed to develop in enrollees who possess a background in electricity an understanding of electronics technology-a related

but separate discipline.28

Community colleges take a variety of approaches to technician-level instruction for

PA—from single courses to 2-year associate

degree programs. Henry Ford Community College (HFCC) in the Detroit area offers an “Automation/Robotics Option” within its 2-year

Electrical-Electronics Program. Among the

subjects covered are programmable controllers

and other computer-aided manufacturing

(CAM) equipment. HFCC has also developed

several courses on programmable controllers

geared to the needs of union apprentices and

journeymen. Glendale Community College in

Los Angeles County operates a short-term industrial training program on computer-aided

design (CAD) in conjunction with local industry and government. Both HFCC and Glendale encourage students to continue their education beyond the associate-degree level by

indicating courses that could be applied to a

4-year bachelor of science degree.29 30

There are some attempts under way to develop a standardized curriculum for technician-level occupations within the field of programmable automation. The advantage of the

core curriculum is that it develops a broad

foundation of knowledge on which to base subsequent PA instruction during the same instructional period or at a later date. For example, the Center for Occupational Research

and Development (CORD), a nonprofit organization that develops instructional materials

for emerging technical fields, has developed

a core curriculum to which components for

robotics, computer-aided drafting, or laser

technology can be added. The core curriculum

seeks to develop interdisciplinary skills,

including:

‘81ntemational Brotherhood of Electrical 11’orkers case study,

1983.

‘

gHenry Ford Community College case study, 1983.

‘Glendale CAD/CAM Operatir Trainin g Program case study,

1983.
Ch. 6—Education, Training. and Retraining Issues ● 237

—. —

Photo credit: Los Angeles Electrical Training Trust

These skilled electricians, members of Los Angeles Local No. 11 of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers,

are attending a 6-week training program designed to develop the skills required to install, troubleshoot, and maintain

programmable controllers. Since the training program was first offered in October 1981, 170 members of the Local

have completed the program offered by the Los Angeles Electrical Training Trust. Forty-six have completed an advanced

programmable controller course. Graduates are employed by contractors who install and maintain automated equipment

i n manufacturing faciIities. For more information on the Training Trust’s programs, see am. A to this report, the section

of this chapter entitled “Case Studies: Selected lnstructional Programs, ” and’ p. 236 of this” chapter

electrical, and Idaho—have adopted the CORD electromechanical, mechanical curriculum as the standard for

fluidal, community colleges in their regions.

thermal, For the most part, PA instruction for tech- optical, and

microcomputer technology .3] nicians is developing along traditional lines.

That is, PA-related courses are often simply

Community colleges and vocational schools in added to existing curricula, such as electroseveral States—Ohio, Oklahoma, New Mexico, mechanical technology. While such programs

may produce technicians qualified to operate

~) Interview with Dan Hu1l. President, CORD, May 19~3. in today’s automated manufacturing facilities,
238 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— — —- —.——— —

they may or may not equip individuals for future workplace change. Programs that develop a broad interdisciplinary knowledge base,

that emphasize computer technology, and that

impart a broad understanding of the system

as well as its components are essential if individuals are to have the flexibility to face future

PA-related change in the workplace.32 One program that seeks to develop this broad-based

understanding of the system and components

is a Brigham Young University (BYU) 4-year

engineering technology program, which is described in detail in appendix A to this report.

In two of the manufacturing facilities

studied, Westinghouse Defense and Electronics Center and Texas Instruments, the training of shop floor personnel on automated

equipment was linked to research and development activities. This link benefits researchers and production staff. Both firms

have established manufacturing technology

centers where the training of shop floor managers and workers who will utilize the technology once it is installed is conducted in conjunction with applications research. At both

facilities, trainee involvement helps the researchers by providing information about

shop floor-user needs and opportunities to test

and utilize manufacturing technology in a

practical environment. It also helps shop floor

workers by allowing them to become familiar

with the technology before it becomes a permanent part of the manufacturing process,

and by enabling them to express their needs,

concerns, and dissatisfactions prior to final

system implementation.33 34

Instructional Requirements for Engineers

Design and production engineers who work

in computer-automated facilities are required

to have a broader based knowledge of engineering operations and stronger management

skills than those who work in more convention-

‘

zDan Hull, “What is High Technology?” Developing High

Technology Vocational Programs, American Vocational

Association and the Center for Occupational Research and

Development, May 1983.

99We9t~ghouW Defense Electronics Center CMstudy, 1983.

S4Texa~ Ingt,rument.g Corp. case study, 1983.

al manufacturing plants. There is also much

greater emphasis placed on understanding

how PA may be most effectively applied. In

keeping with these new skill requirements,

some engineering schools are placing greater

emphasis on hands-on experimentation and

project-oriented instruction and less emphasis

on the more traditional, theory-based

instruction.

For example, Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI), a primarily undergraduate engineering and science institution, joined forces

with Emhart Corp. in 1981 to form an on-campus research center. In addition to providing

Emhart and other firms with a manufacturing engineering applications research capacity, the center offers engineering students the

opportunity for regular contact with practicing engineers and with practical problems and

situations in the form of industrial “projects.”

Two projects-one focusing on an application

within the student major field and the other

focusing on broad societal impacts of technology’s application—are graduation require

ments for all WPI students.35

BYU offers an engineering technology program with specialties in manufacturing, design, and electronics. All three of the BYU

technology programs substitute applicationoriented, laboratory-based courses for the

highly theoretical coursework of traditional engineering programs. The goal is to combine a

foundation in theory with practical applications experience. (See photo on p. 246.) Computer-aided design and manufacturing have

been a part of BYU’s engineering technology

program since the mid-1970’ s.*

Attempts are being made on the undergraduate and graduate levels to familiarize design

engineers with manufacturing requirements

and, conversely, to familiarize production engineers with design procedures. In addition,

there is more emphasis being placed on developing the ability to take the entire design-man-

“WPI Manufacturing Engineering Applications Center case

study, 1983.

*A ~um~ of the case study on BYU’S Engineering Technology Program is included in app. A to this report.
-——.

Ch. 6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 239

ufacturing process into account—e.g., through

the systems approach, which focuses on the

integration of computerized systems with

more traditional forms of automation. Students enrolled in BYU’s master’s program in

computer integrated manufacturing are required to have at least 1 year of industrial experience. They are free to pursue either CAD

or CAM as an option within the program, but

are required to take courses from each specialty area and learn to integrate computerized

systems to solve practical, recurring industrial

problems.” The University of Michigan’s College of Engineering, although more traditional

in its approach to undergraduate engineering

education than some of the other schools studied, offers students a graduate-level program

in integrated manufacturing. In 1981, the Engineering College established a Center for Robotics and Integrated Manufacturing (CRIM)

in order to coordinate and expand research and

teaching activities relating to computer-based

automation. In 1982-83, a total of 45 graduate

students participated in CRIM-sponsored research projects.37

The effects of programmable automation on

engineering education will depend on the approaches taken to engineering instruction

within individual educational institutions and

programs. If the more traditional approach is

taken on the undergraduate level—i.e., a focus

on developing an extensive, theoretical framework on which to base practical experience—

then PA will represent more of a force for

change in graduate and continuing education

programs. If individual institutions place

greater emphasis on combining theory with

practice in undergraduate engineering education, and in so doing emphasize CAD and

CAM, then advances in PA research and applications will continue to trigger curriculum

change on the undergraduate level. The variety of approached currently being taken to programmable automation in engineering education does suggest that individuals preparing

for careers in engineering should be aware of

—————.—

“Brigham Young University case study, 1983.

“University of Michigan case study, 1983.

the lack of standard approaches to curriculum

content. The mix of theory and application, as

well as the exposure to programmable technologies, differs from school to school.

Regardless of approach, a critical need for education is to ensure that engineering laboratories and curricula reflect the state of the art

of the technology .38

Instructional Requirements for Managers

There has been concern within industry for

some time about the lack of management expertise in technical personnel. Indeed, some

observers suggest that industrial managers

who are cautious and detail-driven, coupled

with a corporate decisionmaking process that

stresses short-term financial considerations

over the potential for long-term gain, have substantially delayed redesign and retooling of

the U.S. manufacturing sector.39 Traditional

engineering programs have not stressed the

need for the development of management competencies, nor have traditional management

education programs offered special courses

geared to the needs of technical and engineering operations managers. A recent report of

The American Assembly of Collegiate Schools

of Business, the accrediting body and professional organization for the deans of approximately 600 undergraduate and postgraduate

business schools in the United States, recommended that business schools address criticisms of overemphasis on finance and marketing in their curricula by giving equal weight

to production processes and productivity .’”

Professor Tom Lupton, director of the Manchester Business School, University of Manchester (United Kingdom), who has conducted

a study of management development pro-

‘

8 Donald D. Glower and Linden Saline, A Response to Advana”ng Technologies: Repositioning Engineen”ng Education to

Servi”ce Amezica Future (Washington, D. C.: American Society

for Engineering Education, 1982).

3’Wickham Skinner, “Wanted: Managers for the Factory of

the Future, ” ANNALS, AAPSS, No. 470, November 1983, pp,

102-114.

40RepO~t on U,S. Prductjvjty and lnternationd Competitiveness, sponsored by The American Assembly of Collegiate Schools of Business at George Washington University, Washington, D. C., June 13-16, 1983.
240 • Computerized Manufacturing Automatlon: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

————— - —

grams in Western Europe, made these observations:

. . . Management education everywhere—in

Europe and North America certainly-has

suffered from the attempt to bring the world

into the classroom rather than to take the

teacher (or rather the organiser of learning)

into the fields of action. However, it is encouraging to notice the beginning of a shift

from the passive to more active modes of

learning. . . . Yet although the shift is happening in many schools, movement is slow.41

The need for managers of automated manufacturing facilities and other complex operations to possess an understanding of the total

manufacturing system and all of its components has led some universities to create new

master’s degree programs in technical management. The University of Pennsylvania’s

Wharton School has instituted a program entitled “Management and Technology ”-a joint

venture between Wharton and the University’s Engineering School. The Sloan School of

Management at MIT also offers a graduate

program in the management of technological

innovation. Yale University, too, has established an engineering management program

on the graduate level—a joint venture between

the engineering and management schools. And

in the fall of 1983, BYU’s Technology Department began to offer a graduate degree in technical management as a cooperative effort between the College of Engineering Sciences and

the School of Management.*

Some universities are going beyond the

disciplines of engineering and management to

include an even broader base in their manufacturing engineering curricula. With the aid

of a 4-year, $2 million grant from the IBM

Corp., Lehigh University of Bethlehem, Pa.,

is launching a graduate-level manufacturing

systems engineering program that will integrate “systems perspectives with interdisciplinary education and training” and combine

academic coursework with “industry-oriented

liTOm ~up~n, bZan~rnent Development in western EUIWS

(Manchester, U. K.: Manchester Business School, 1982).

*For add,ition~ information on this program, sw the Brigham

Young University case study, included in app. A to this report.

internships, laboratories, simulations, plant inspections and projects. ”42 Lehigh is one of five

universities benefiting from multimillion-dollar IBM grants to encourage the establishment of manufacturing systems engineering

programs. UCLA’s School of Engineering and

Applied Science draws its graduate-level manufacturing engineering curriculum from the

disciplines of materials science, mechanics and

structures, computer science and engineering,

electrical engineering, and engineering systems. 43

Segments of the training industry and professional societies are also becoming aware of

the interest in and need for technology management courses for engineers and nontechnical personnel employed in automated manufacturing facilities. Boeing Computer Services (BCS), a subsidiary of the Boeing Co.—a

producer of commercial and military aircraft–

is an established provider of technology-based

training to commercial firms and Federal,

State, and local governments. BCS is test-marketing a seminar for managers to provide them

with information on the basics of CAD and

CAM systems and related terminology; as well

as a primer on computer graphics and the use

of CAD and CAM software. Also covered in

the seminar is a step-by-step approach to managing a CAD and CAM project, including:

●

●

●

●

●

considerations for purchasing hardware,

methods to ensure efficient system use to

achieve maximum productivity,

procedures for defining training requirements and implementing a training

program,

procedures for choosing proper systems

applications for a particular environment,

and

procedures for establishing a data management system.44

—..—

“B. Litt and M. Groover, Developing Manufactwing Systems

Engineers for the Future: A Um”que Industqy-Um”versity Joint

Venture, paper presented at the American Institute of Decision Sciences, Southwest Conference, Feb. 29, 1984.

4gVic Cox, “Materials Science and Manufacturing Engineering: The New Alchemy, “ The Minon”ty Engineer, winter 1984,

pp. 17, 20, and 22.

441nformation provided by Boeing Computer Services, 1983.
Ch 6— Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 241

To date, six courses have been delivered, with

a total of 180 managers enrolled. Trade and

professional organizations, such as the Society of Manufacturing Engineers, offer short

courses in technical management to their

members and other interested individuals,

often in conjunction with national and regional

conferences.

It is too soon to judge whether these technology management programs and courses

constitute the beginnings of a trend. However,

continued industry pressure for more effective

technical managers may well lead to greater

emphasis on the development of management

skills in industrial engineering and computer

science programs.

Case Studies: Selected Instructional Programs

The instructional system in the United

States is a loose confederation of institutions,

agencies, and organizations from the public

and private sectors. The intent of the programs designed and delivered by these instructional providers varies widely. This is no less

true for instructional programs that are designed to develop skills required in automated

manufacturing facilities. Within this section

of the report are included highlights of findings of an in-depth examination of 20 instructional programs for automated factory environments. These programs are representative

of relatively successful efforts initiated by

secondary and postsecondary educational institutions, vendors of programmable equipment and systems, users of programmable

automation, labor unions, and Federal and/or

State-funded retraining facilities. Cooperative

instructional programs of various types are

also featured. These findings also shed some

light on the strengths and shortcomings of

currently available instruction, problems encountered in program design and operation,

and the roles assumed by educators, industry,

labor, and government in these innovative

efforts—roles that may be representative of

emerging roles for these sectors within the instructional system as a whole.

To supplement this discussion of trends and

patterns in PA-related instruction, appendix

A to this report contains summaries of five of

the case studies developed:

• a robotics and computer-aided drafting

program for high school students, operated by the Oakland County school system in southeastern Michigan;

the undergraduate and graduate degree

programs in engineering technology offered by BYU, Provo, Utah;

CADAM Inc. ’s* customer training in

computer-aided design;

the Los Angeles Electrical Training

Trust’s programmable controller training

program; and

the “CAD/CAM” operator training program, at Glendale Community College,

Glendale, Calif.

Appendix A also contains a brief description

of the case study methodology.

Findings: Roles, Functions, and

Capacities of Programs

The findings listed below are based on the

universe of 20 programs encompassed in the

14 case studies. It should be emphasized that,

even though careful consideration was given

to ensuring variety and comprehensiveness of

program types, the findings are limited by the

size of the sample. Therefore, while certain

general conclusions can be drawn, these are

based solely on the scope of the programs

investigated.

Primary Education.—One primary program

was examined: the Dallas Independent School

District’s Project SEED. It emphasizes building basic mathematics skills and interest in

*CADAM Inc. is a subsidiary of Lockheed Corp.
242 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— —

mathematics as the foundation for further

technical studies. Because the program can

reach all school-age children in the district, it

has the capacity to achieve an extremely broad

impact by increasing the number of students

capable of and interested in more advanced

educational programs focusing on PA and

other technological fields.45

High School Education2.-TW0 high school

programs were investigated: the Dallas Independent School District’s Science and Engineering Magnet School; and the Oakland

County, Mich., robotics and computer-aided

drafting programs. Programs examined either

focus on or include computer literacy, preengineering, basic computer science, computer-aided drafting, and robotics. Career awareness is also stressed. The programs examined

indicate that PA studies can be introduced effectively at the high school level, especially if

orientation to computer-aided techniques is

stressed as part of a comprehensive vocational

education program focused on core trade

skills. 46 47

Community Colleges. –Henry Ford Community College (Michigan), Eastfield Community College (Dallas), and Glendale Community

College (Los Angeles County) were the sites

studied. The major functions of their programs are: 1) granting 2-year associate degrees

(or degree options) focusing on or including

robotics or computer-aided design, and 2) offering short-term work-study training programs jointly operated with industries and

government agencies for students with previous college-level technical coursework. Also

included among community college functions

are career counseling and agreements with

local universities to enable students to proceed

directly to B.S. programs. The 2-year colleges

studied are all characterized by responsiveness

to industrial skill needs and coordination with

local industries on such matters as curriculum content and equipment needs. Major

strengths are the practical orientation of the

technical programs, the industrial experience

“Texas instruments case study, 1983.

“Ibid,

“Oakland County case study, 1983.

of the instructors (usually a hiring requirement), and their balancing of the needs of the

students and the community at large with industrial demands for specific skill preparation.

The colleges’ focus on practical, technicianlevel coursework makes them excellent vehicles for responding to the growing need to

retrain displaced workers. Major weaknesses

stem primarily from lack of adequate funding

to purchase industrial-quality equipment and

build needed laboratory facilities.48

Um”versi’ties. -The examination of the university’s role in PA instruction focused on four

engineering and technology programs: 1) University of Michigan; 2) Brigham Young University; 3) Texas A&M University; and 4) Worcester Polytechnic Institute. University approaches range from: 1) introducing PA studies as a major focus (CAD) or minor option

(CAM) in 4-year technology programs that

substitute practically oriented coursework for

the most theoretical of the courses required

in engineering curricula; 2) introducing CAM

into undergraduate curricula through projects

with industry or projects that simulate industrial conditions, plus the use of innovative instructional techniques that enable engineering

undergraduate students to begin to focus on

CAM at that level; to 3) reserving the focus

on computer-aided manufacturing (or, computer-integrated manufacturing) for graduate-level

programs so that undergraduates may first

master the fundamentals of traditional engineering disciplines. In the three universities

studied in depth, * computer-aided design is

more comprehensively covered in undergraduate engineering or technology curricula than

is computer-aided manufacturing.

The research functions observed at universities, and the capacity to engage in PA research, are equally varied, ranging from industrially oriented applications research to longterm research aimed at areas of potentially

high technical or economic impact where success is uncertain. While the latter type of

“Henry Ford Community College, Texas Instruments, and

Glendale CAD/CAM Program case studies, 1983.

*University of Michigan Brigham Young University, and

Worcester Polytechnic Institute, case studies, 1983.
Ch 6—.Educatlon, Training, and Retraining Issues Ž 243

.—. . . —— — . ——— ———————

research may fill a need that many industries

do not have the luxury to address, the former

more effectively fills industry’s short-term

needs. * As in the cases of the high school and

college programs, most university programs

are limited in capacity by less-than-adequate

funding, equipment, and laboratory facilities.49

Apprentice and Journeyman Traing.-The

major function of the union training programs

observed—both of which serve industrial electricians-is to build PA training onto a solid

core of fundamental trade skills either during

the final year of apprenticeship training or in

voluntary or company-sponsored journeyman

training.’” Union-sponsored or oriented programs observed differ from university and

some college programs in that they are not designed to place technology studies in the context of broad-based humanistic education.

However, the union programs concentrate

more on the development of a given individual’s skills than in-plant training programs generally do (see below). Whereas most in-plant

training focuses on task-oriented skills required to perform a specific job, the union programs focus on adding PA-related skills to the

complete range of skills required to perform

as a journeyman in a specific trade.51

In-Plant Industrial Traing.–All of the inplant training programs observed52 provide

job-specific classroom-laboratory training focused on the precise applications needs of the

plant. A broad range of machine- or systemspecific programs were examined along with

overall systems orientation training for managers. In-plant programs are both efficient and

effective because they are: 1) specifically focused on well-defined applications needs; 2) delivered to students grounded in both plant pro-

—.

*See the later section on “cooperative Industry-Education

Programs” for discussion of mutual benefits derived from joint

education research projects.

“University of Michigan, Brigham Young University,

Worcester Polytechnic institute, and Texas Instruments case

studies, 1983.

“international Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Programmable Controller Training Program.

5’lntemational Brotherhood of Electrical Workers case study,

1983.

‘

zTexas instruments; an aircraft manufacturer (asked not to

be identified); CADAM Inc.; Cincinnati Milacron; and Westinghouse Defense and Electronics Center.

cedures and core trade skills who can put their

new skills into practice immediately and continuously; and 3) more user-oriented than

other types of PA training, since the trainers

are normally in close contact with system

users, programmers, and maintenance personnel and usually have current or previous plant

experience in those fields. However, the

streamlined efficiency of in-plant training limits its range: students normally learn only

what they need to know to perform their jobs,

and no more. Some in-plant training is also

limited by a lack of resources devoted to or

available for training.

Vendor Training.–The major function of

the instructional programs delivered by producers or vendors of PA equipment and systems is machine- or system-specific training

which is usually not application-oriented. *

Such programs generally are not designed to

do more than give customer trainees a thorough orientation to the equipment itself and

the basic skills required to use it; advanced

vendor training courses impart greater depth

of maintenance skills, and some advanced

training focuses on generic applications, such

as welding or line-tracking (in robotics) and

mechanical design or printed circuit board design (in CAD). Some PA vendors, such as GCA

Corp. (semiconductor equipment, remotehandling and large-scale robotic systems), offer

several levels of structured courses in key

areas such as maintenance. Other vendors,

such as Computervision (CAD hardware and

CAD and CAM software) and Automatix (robotics and vision systems) will develop, on request and for a fee, customized, advanced

courses .63

*The five companies profiled are: 1 ) Computervision, a vendor of computer-aided design systems (both hardware and software); 2) CADAM Inc., a software-only vendor, most of whose

CAD software is sold to purchasers of IBM hardware; 3) Cincinnati Milacron, Inc., a producer of computer-controlled

machine tools, robots, and other products; 4) GCA, a producer

of specialized automated semiconductor equipment; and 5)

Automatix, a vendor of custom-designed robotic and vision systems. With the exception of Cincimati Milacron (CMI)–which

was founded in the 1880’s and began producing computer-controlled machinery in the 1960’s and 1970’s—the vendor firms

are relatively young companies. GCA and ComputerVision were

established in the late 1960’s: Automatix was created in 1980:

and CADAM was incorporated in 1982.

53 New England Progr ammable Automation Customer Training case study, 1983.
244 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation Employment, Education, and the Workplace

..—. —— — — —.

The expense of vendor training is another

limitation.* Specific strengths include: 1) a

high level of responsiveness to customers’

needs, 2) increasing amounts of attention to

developing and utilizing instructional methodologies that attempt to combine flexibility

with a systematic approach, and 3) an increasing emphasis on the need for in-plant instructor training, manager training, and executive

seminars, all of which stress the systems approach to manufacturing and design. The

“systems approach, ” which takes the entire

design and manufacturing process in a given

environment into account, is especially important in companies that now have or are in the

process of building an integrated CAD and

CAM database.

Cooperative Industry-Education Programs.–

While all of the educational programs covered

in the case study series have involved a degree

of participation from other sectors, only five

of the programs could be characterized as joint

ventures in which government agencies and/or

industrial firms have assumed a high degree

of involvement in program operation. Those

are: 1) the Glendale High School CAD program, 2) the Glendale coordinated funding pro

gram, 3) the Eastfield College printed wire

board program, 4) WPI’S Manufacturing Engineering Applications Center, and 5) the

Texas A&M integrated circuit design program.

A number of the cooperative programs examined have the potential to increase the

educational and/or research capacity of the

academic partners, especially those programs

that provide equipment and/or laboratory facilities which the school could not otherwise

afford. In addition, such programs can provide

the industrial partner with education and research services that industry is not organized

to provide (e.g., PA-related training delivered

in the context of a broad-based education, and

Vendors and producer in some cases in some cases Offer volume discounts, group discounts, and/or free training slots with purchase

of their equipment. But vendor-provided training, while essential with initial purchase of equipment, becomes too expensive

as a continued source of instruction. In the case study sites examined, neither vendors nor producers feel that it is a substitute

for users establishing in-house training capacities.

a production-free environment in which to conduct applications research). The majority of

the joint programs also give the industrial

partner access to faculty and to potential

employees (i.e., the participating students)

who are either specifically trained in occupations in demand by the company or who have

some familiarity with company procedures

and requirements through participation in

joint research projects.

Needs, Problems, and Trends Common to

Industry and Education Programs

Summary

Neither the industrial nor the educational

sector alone has fully met all PA training

needs identified to date, nor has either solved

all of the major problems associated with the

delivery of such training. Some of those needs

and problems are, in fact, common to both industrial training and the instruction delivered

in educational institutions.

Common Needs

Long- and Short-Term Strategies. — While industrial organizations need training strategies

that meet both short- and long-term needs to

support PA implementation and expansion

strategies, educational institutions must plan

to meet short-term educational needs as best

they can despite the difficulty of obtaining

equipment and laboratory facilities. Texas Instruments has recognized both needs and supplements its in-plant training activities with

extensive involvement in local elementary, secondary, and postsecondary education programs, plus cooperative arrangements with

colleges and universities in Texas and elsewhere.54 At the same time, educational institutions must engage in long-term forecasting

and planning consistent with their own educational and research goals and future industrial

needs. The University of Michigan, for example, has a long-range goal of strengthening its

independent research and development and engineering programs, while continuing to re-

-——

“Texas Instruments case study, 1983.
.

——— . — — — -..

spend in the short term to changing industrial

skills requirements. 55

Increased Internal Coordination. —The need

for increased coordination between design and

production departments in industries that

either have developed or plan to develop a

common CAD and CAM (or computer-integrated manufacturing) database is paralleled

by the need for educational institutions to increase the coordination among departments

engaged in interdisciplinary research and/or

teaching activities. For example, Brigham

Young University is working to establish

closer ties between its engineering, technology, and science programs in light of the common effects of programmable automation on

these courses of study, as well as the need for

an interdisciplinary approach in many courses.

Increased Communcation.— Enhanced communications networks are needed not only

within individual schools and plants, but also

between industry and education; among companies engaged in producing, implementing,

or expanding programmable automation; and

among schools offering PA studies. In the case

of the Glendale, Calif., CAD/CAM Training

Program, State-level coordination and sponsorship provided both the impetus and the

funding resources necessary to give Glendale

College and other colleges (or, in some cases,

consortia of colleges) participating in the effort, the opportunity to establish high-technology programs.

The object of the State-level sponsors was

to demonstrate the feasibility of coordinating

both funding sources and public and private

organization efforts to support employment

and training projects which would also build

the educational capacities of the participating

schools. The State-level coordination was also

a pilot test of the abilities of State agencies

to improve local responses to high-technology

education and training needs by pooling and

coordinating their resources. On the local level,

the success of the Glendale program in meeting its goals was aided by the previously es55 University of Michigan case study. 1983.

Ch 6—Education, Training, and Retrainging Issues ● 245 ——.—

tablished linkages between the college, the Private Industry Council (PIC), and local business and industry.

In addition, prospective students and workers need to be informed about the specific programs offered in particular schools and the

present and future skill requirements of the

workplace. There are organizations that gather

and compile information on programmable automation and other high-technology curricula

which can be used by students or workers

planning further education.* What appears to

be needed, however, is a national mechanism

for tapping the resources of the already existing organizations and gathering information from schools and industries that may not

yet be included in the numerous studies and

unofficial networking done by existing organizations. As important as gathering information on curricula, training methodologies,

research, equipment needs, local problems, and

local solutions is a mechanism for publicizing

that information to teachers, prospective students, and workers who may not even know

of the existence of established information organizations. A well-publicized national communications network would enable students

to make informed choices of schools that meet

their individual needs. It could also make curricular materials from a variety of sources

available to schools and industrial training

departments.

Exchange of Expertise Between Education

and Industry. —The curriculum-development

and teaching expertise of instructors in colleges and universities can be of help to industrial trainers facing the onset of increased

in-plant classroom and laboratory training for

programmable automation. Similarly, colleges

*Numerous professional societies—such as the Society for

Manufacturing Engineers and Computer-Aided Manufacturing

International-enable professional engineers to exchange information on state-of-the-art techniques and problems. In addition, engineering education associations and vocational training societies spread information among educators and trainers.

Conferences such as that held by Brigham Young University

for universities engaged in PA teaching and research also help.

AS wide-reaching as these organizations may be, however, they

are still limited in that not all trainers and educators can afford the time or receive the funding to attend meetings.
246 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation Employment, Education, and the Workplace

This is a scale model (inset) of the group technology cell that will be a part of BYU’s “CAM Mini-Lab. ” The model

was built in the University’s Research Laboratory (see caption below)

Brigham Young University’s Engineering Technology Department is creating a “CAM Mini-Lab”- a scaled-down version

of a highly automated manufacturing facility—for use with students enrolled in “Computer-Integrated Manufacturing”

and other courses offered through BYU’S Design Technology and Manufacturing Technology degree programs. The “MiniLab” is expected to be completely operational in the next 8 months and will be located in the CAM Software Department.

Students are building most of the equipment for the lab themselves, including controllers, an automated storage and

retrieval device, and a group technology cell that includes a lathe, a mill, and a robot. Once completed, BYU hopes

to market the “Mini-Lab” concept to other schools of engineering and technology. For more information on BYU’S

Engineering Technology Program, see app. A

and universities can benefit from having their

students participate in simulated or actual industrial projects.

As one model for such interaction, the specific roles played by company and school representatives in WPI’S Manufacturing Engineering Applications Center (ME AC) projects

are as follows: Emhart Corp. supplied all the

equipment (including the robots themselves

and the peripheral equipment needed to develop the applications) and transported it to WPI;

covered all major project costs (which, aside

from equipment, included administrative

costs, equipment maintenance, and a portion

of WPI staff salaries); assigned a project manager to be responsible for the overall operation

of the various applications projects; and as-
— .——— ———

Ch 6— Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 247

. —

signed other engineers and factory workers to

aid in the research and development. WPI pro

vialed laboratory and office space for the resident Emhart staff; a project administrator;

students, faculty, and “resident engineers”

specially hired to work on the MEAC projects;

workshops, demonstrations, and tours for

company personnel; and tuition-free coursework for participating engineers who wished

to take advantage of the college’s educational

programs (including work toward M.S. and

Ph. D. degrees).

Top-Level Organizational or Institutional Support and Self-Motivated Action by Instructors.– Well-planned and executed training and

education requires active support by corporate

management or school administrators. The

corporate vice president who conceived of and

initiated the WPI manufacturing engineering

program enlisted top corporate support and

acted as an arbitrator between the school and

the company and between Emhart corporate

and divisional employees when the need arose.

Apart from top-level support, the need for individual instructors in educational institutions

who take action by developing curricula, making industrial contacts, and keeping themselves abreast of the state of the art is

matched by the need in industry for training

directors or managers who can convince top

management of the need for training to keep

pace with PA expansion.

Flexibility. –Both industry and education

need the flexibility to incorporate the new

training and education needs into traditional

practices and procedures. This may, in some

instances, require restructuring curricula in

educational institutions and restructuring

training practices (or instituting new training

procedures) in industry. When the need for instruction of production line personnel in the

use of programmable equipment arose at the

General Motors’ “ S“ Truck Plant, for example, staff in the maintenance department were

identified to serve as instructors and a permanent technical training group was formed.5G

“General Motors case study, 1983.

Jointly Sponsored Industry-Education Programs. -Joint programs with industry can

significantly increase the capacities of educational institutions to conduct programmable

automation education and research programs.

While many industries have difficulties freeing equipment or laboratory facilities for student use, others that have been able to do so

(e.g., JPL, Singer Librascope, and Emhart,)

have seen a return on their investment that

takes a variety of forms—ranging from free

coursework for company engineers, to assistance in industrial projects, to company-specific training of potential or current employees.

Some far-seeing company representatives also

recognize that by building the capacities of the

schools, they are bettering their future chances

of hiring well-educated employees. Some also

believe that colleges can potentially save companies training dollars by delivering in-plant

training. In most cases, the companies would

first have to train the college instructors in

their procedures and practices, but industry

supporters of contracts with colleges for training maintain that this would be less expensive

than company-operated training, and that it

has the added advantage of aiding industry

and academia at the same time.

Common Problems

Lack of Adequate Resources.– While the lack

of adequate funding, equipment, and laboratory facilities for training is most notable in

the education sector, this problem has also

been observed in some vendor and user firms.

A significant implication is that those industries having difficulties filling their own needs

for equipment, instructors, and facilities are

hardly in a position to aid schools looking to

industry for equipment. The national crisis in

education that has been receiving increasing

attention in the media and in numerous reports appears to be paralleled by the less publicized problem of the low-priority status of

training in many industrial organizations.

Nevertheless, as the successfully operated

industry-education programs illustrate, resources (including equipment and laboratories
248 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation Employrnent, Education, and the Workplace

———— — — —

in industry and the instructional expertise of

educators) can be shared; Federal, State, and

local government agencies can help to facilitate that sharing of resources by providing additional funds and by creating linkages–as

was done on both the State and local levels in

the instance of California’s coordinated funding Project.67

Resistance to Change.–A number of industry and education representatives have

pointed out that many individuals in their own

organizations and institutions exhibit a strong

resistance to the changes that maybe brought

about by programmable automation and other

emerging technologies. Not only individuals,

but entire organizations show this resistance.

While over-responding in an ill-considered

fashion is certainly a danger, the traditionally gradual change in education and training

makes a failure to respond in time a more

prevalent-and likely—problem.

Keeping Up With the Constantly Changing

State of the Art.–While many educators have

difficulty keeping up with industrial advances

in technology, and while postsecondary educational institutions as a whole face extreme difficulty in keeping their laboratory equipment

up-to-date, industrial trainers (especially in

vendor firms) face similar difficulties in keeping up with software updates and new releases

of both software and hardware. The solution

to this problem, as to so many others, is increased resources allotted to educational institutions and industrial training organizations so that they can hire more trainers, curriculum specialists and, in the case of educational institutions, more faculty to reduce the

strain on the departments as a whole. The

“solution,” however, is a problem in itself,

since training resources appear to be scanty

in many industrial firms, and funding is a

perennial problem in most schools.

Findind and Keeping Instructors.–High

school, college, and university instructors who

have developed PA expertise are attractive to

industry, and must be dedicated teachers to

“see case study 5: CAD/CAM Operator Training Program,

included in app. A to this report.

pass up the allure of higher industrial salaries.

Many potential instructors never consider pro

fessional academic careers for the same reason,

leaving the university immediately after completing their studies. Industrial training departments, especially in vendor firms, have

similar problems. One potential solution lies

in industry contracts with schools for exchanges of expertise, such as those described

earlier. This approach can lead to enhancement

of the professional competence of instructors.

Common Trends

Cross Training and/or Interdisciplinary

Studies Plus the Systems Approach for Eng”-

neers and Managers. –Technical colleges and

high schools stress the need for interdisciplinary coursework, especially in robotics and

other programmable automation studies. This

parallels the cross training of mechanics, electronics technicians, and other technician-level

workers and maintenance personnel in plants

where union provisions do not preclude workers from crossing occupational trade boundaries in the work performed. In some union

plants that have such restrictions (e.g., where

electrical maintenance personnel do not perform mechanical maintenance functions), inplant training courses often provide familiarity with those portions of the system not directly the responsibility of the individual

mechanical or electrical maintenance worker.

The systems approach to computer-integrated

manufacturing studies offered by some engineering schools is, perhaps, paralleled by inplant training in CAD and CAM networking

systems and by systems overview courses for

managers.

Technical Management Education and Training.–Overview courses for managers are

becoming more common, as are new master’s

degree programs in technical management for

engineering personnel. Some of the universities studied, such as the BYU, combine

coursework for a master’s degree in business

administration with graduate-level engineering or technology courses (often focusing

directly on programmable automation) to produce trained technical managers.
Ch 6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 249 — — — — —

Increased Attention to the Relationship Bet ween Education-and-Trm”m”ng and Productivity.—This trend is related to the growing emphasis on lifelong learning. A large number of

in-plant trainers and managers interviewed

equated ongoing in-plant training with increased plant productivity. One of the major

selling points of vendor training is that adequate instruction is required to enable workers

to make the most productive use of CAD

equipment and to keep CAM equipment operating at peak efficiency. Trainers in the

union-operated training program studied were,

perhaps, the most explicit of all. Said one:

“The only thing we have to sell are our skills

and knowledge—these must be pertinent if we

are to continue to function as productive workers in a changing field.”* Educators concerned

with the personal productivity of their students after they leave school emphasize the necessity of continuing the learning process after

formal education is completed. Programs offered by Worcester Polytechnic Institute, for

example, are specifically structured to produce

students who are capable of “learning to learn

for themselves in a professionally competitive

atmosphere. According to one WPI representative, “the net result is that, if the program succeeds in meeting its goals with individual students, those students who become

practitioners have an infinite half-life as

engineers, instead of the currently predicted

l-year half-life. ”

Career Guidance and

Programmable Automation

Earlier in this chapter it was pointed out

that the increasing use of programmable automation in manufacturing environments, along

with other forces at work in the economy, is

causing individuals and employers to develop

new expectations and requirements for services from the U.S. instructional system. One

of the expectations shared by individuals and

employers alike is that there will be more comprehensive educational and career guidance

——..— .—

*A lti~e num~r Of the members of the particular r~llw IOCd

studied worked on a temporary or permanent basis for small

electrical contractors, many of whom could not afford to provide formal in-house training.

programs accessible not only to children and

young people, but also to adults. As increased

use is made of advanced automation in the

plant and the office, skills requirements will

change and the emphasis on developing abase

line familiarity with advanced technologies–

especially the computer—will increase. In

turn, the variety of career options and modes

of career preparation will change.

Given an era in which lifelong education will

be a necessity for most if not all participants

in the U.S. work force, there will be an increasing need for educational and career counseling for adults. And in some cases, career counseling for adults may be an alternative to

education and training, as has already been

demonstrated with some displaced workers

who possess marketable skills. To date, there

has been no research yielding specific recommendations for altering guidance and counseling programs in accordance with the increased

presence of advanced technologies in the

American workplace. Yet the potential for increased opportunities in technology-related occupations and the importance of education and

career guidance require that a discussion of

possible changes to established programs be

included in this examination of changing instructional issues.

Educational and Career Counseling in

Elementary and Secondary Education

Career guidance for elementary school students more often than not takes the form of

structured, periodic classroom sessions devoted to developing an awareness of career

choices and options. On the secondary school

level, educational experiences designed to increase a student’s awareness of possible career

choices are usually known as “career exploration programs. ” School textbook publishers,

and individual teachers, have developed materials that may be integrated into established

curricula, or that guidance personnel may utilize in special programs designed to stimulate

career interests.

As career choices in automated workplace

environments increase, preparation for these

careers may require that decisions relating to
250 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— . . . . .

courses of study be made much earlier in a student’s initial educational preparation. For example, a preliminary interest in technical or

engineering careers may dictate an increased

emphasis on a science and math—perhaps

even in the elementary grades. In Japanese

school systems, science and math education

are stressed from the lower elementary grades

and onward. In addition, science and math curricula are developed so that one level builds

closely on the previous level.58 It will be important that classroom materials used to

stimulate career exploration reflect the likelihood of more frequent changes in careers, as

well as the full spectrum of choices available.

Given the relatively low participation rates of

minorities and women in technical and engineering professions, exposure of minority and

female children to career exploration materials will be especially important for future

achievement of workplace equality. It will also

help ensure that these children can make career decisions based on an examination of all

possible choices.

On the secondary level, the goal of career

guidance and counseling takes a different

form. First, there is more often than not a centralized guidance function in the form of a

guidance counselor or, in larger schools, a

guidance department. For students who will

enter the world of work directly after high

school and for students who will go on to college or some other education or training experience, there are five career guidance needs:

●

●

●

●

●

An awareness that career planning is

vital . . .

A broad awareness of alternatives . . .

Knowledge of a process of decision making . . .

Recent, easily accessible banks of information . . . and

Systematic treatment with individualization. 59

bBNational Science Board Commission on Precollege Education in Mathematics, Science and Technology, Educating

Americans for the 21st Century (Washington, D. C.: National

Science Board, September 1983).

‘

g

JoAnn Harris-Bowlsbey, “A Historical Perspective, ”

Microcomputers and the School Counselor (Alexandria, Va.:

American School Counselor Association, 1983).

Leaders in the field of career guidance suggest

that the work of school counselors will become

more important as a result of increased use of

advanced technologies in American society

and the resulting need to encourage the personal growth required to deal with an increasingly complex and technical world.60 In addition, information technology will play a greater role in the guidance process itself, as microcomputers, video disks, teletext and videotext

serve as vehicles for delivery of career guidance systems to supplement the role of the

counselor. 61 A variety of computer-based guidance systems are already used by high school

guidance counselors. Many counselors who

have used direct search and structured search

systems—the two types of career databases

currently available-have found them to be

valuable resources.62

Career Guidance on the Postsecondary Level

Whether an individual enrolls in a degree

program or simply takes selected courses, the

focus of guidance programs in postsecondary

institutions is usually more on placement than

on examining career options. This focus has

been in keeping with increasing enrollments

in specialized, professional education programs. However, as technological and economic change forces individuals and institutions

to think more in terms of broad-based occupational preparation rather than specialization,

there will be a greater need for career guidance

services on the postsecondary level. Barton

points out that increases in adult enrollments

and the growing need of adults for career

counseling, based in part on technological and

economic change, will present new challenges

to the educational community:

While there is increasing interest in adults

among members of the counseling and guidance profession, that profession has mostly

dealt with the young. There is quite a differ-

‘°Cynthia Johnson, “The Future, ” Microcomputers and the

school Counselor (Alexandria, Va.: Amen”can school Counselors

Association), 1983.

“JoAnn Harris-Bowlsbey, op. cit., 1983.

‘

zLaurence Shatkin, “The Electronic Counselor, ” Electrom”c

Learning, September 1983, pp. 75-77.
—

Ch. 6—Education, Training. and Retraining Issues Ž 251

ent set of issues involved in the problem of

providing educational advisement and information to adults than there is in facilitating

the movement of youth from high school to

college. The colleges and universities have

had almost a single source from which to get

their students—the secondary school. Information about admissions and courses was

funneled to students through high school

counselors who were the linchpins between

the high school and the college. And a standardized test, the Scholastic Aptitude Test

(SAT)–at least from the college’s standpoint–helped to grade and sort prospective

students.

. . . Potential adult students are not gathered

in any central place. . . . They often have very

specific objectives, and need to know what

kind of education will enable them to reach

these objectives, and where that education

can be found in the community and at least

cost in money and time. People who give

good educational advice to adults have to

know about the constraints working adults

encounter. They must be briefed about employment and avenues of advancement,

about what employers require, in order to relate an educational plan to an employment

outcome. 63

Other Sources of Career Counseling for Adults

A variety of organizations and institutions

within the community now provide career

counseling services to adults who are participants in the work force or who wish to enter

or reenter the work force. In 1980, there were

an estimated 7,991 commercial employment

establishments operating in the United States.

Some of them specialize in particular fields

such as data processing or engineering, while

others work with individuals interested in a

broad range of career pursuits.G4

Nonprofit organizations, such as community-based groups and churches, are becoming

increasingly active, particularly in periods of

high unemployment. National nonprofit organizations also have been formed to assist

individuals in identifying job opportunities.

~3paU1 BN~On, ~or~]jfe ~r~nsitions (Washington, D. C.: National Institute for Work and Learning, 1982).

64Dataprovidedby the U.S. Department of Commerce.

For example, the National Center for Urban

and Ethnic Affairs recently formed a national

information clearinghouse for use by community groups across the country for self-help job

counseling programs to aid the unemployed.

The Center’s clearinghouse staff now offer

workshops to community leaders interested in

establishing self-help job counseling centers.G5

Other national nonprofit organizations are

examining career opportunities for particular

groups within the population. For example,

Wider Opportunities for Women, Inc. (WOW),

a Washington, D. C.-based organization that

focuses on developing nontraditional career

opportunities for women, is now sponsoring

a Women’s Work Force Project, to identify po

tential opportunities for women in high-technology industries.66

The Corporation for Technological Training,

a nonprofit organization serving high-technology employers and individual job seekers in

Montgomery County, Md., has created a Technical Occupations Employment Group that assesses industry skill requirements and provides testing, counseling, retraining, and

placement assistance on an as-needed basis.

Given the potential variances in skill mixes

among high-technology and technology-intensive industries in different regions, such programs that focus on the needs of particular

geographic areas or target populations may

increase in numbers in the near-term future,

provided there are available resources for their

establishment and strong industry support.

As the need for educational counseling and

career guidance increases because of expanded

use of PA in manufacturing, advanced technologies in other types of work environments,

and other factors, the need increases for current, reliable information on occupational

trends and occupational preparation. This

need for more efficient means of organizing

and updating occupational information suggests the need for greater use of microcomputbb~cuEA Building Blocks, winter 1983.

(36Brjd@”ng the skills Gap: Women and Jobs in a High Tech

World (Washington, D. C.: Wider Opportunities for Women,

1983).
252 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace —

ers and other technologies in the counseling

process. 67

Job Counseling, Outplacement, and

Retraining for Displaced Workers

Many semiskilled and skilled workers who

have lost their jobs in automobile, steel, and

other heavy manufacturing industries, or who

are on indefinite lay-off with slim prospects for

ever returning to their former jobs, are looking for new jobs within the manufacturing or

the service sector. In addition, due to both the

increasing use of programmable automation

and economic changes, the jobs of many currently employed semiskilled and skilled workers are at risk.

Unless these individuals are willing to take

lower paying, lower skilled jobs, many will

need to be retrained or to enhance their present skill levels so that they can compete for

available skilled jobs. A few companies,

unions, State universities, and community colleges now offer instructional programs designed with displaced workers in mind. A few

universities and community colleges have begun to offer free courses to the unemployed

in order to assist them in upgrading their

skills. 68 However, other instructional programs

are a “force fit. ” Existing curricula and instructional methods may be inappropriate for

the skill levels of displaced workers or for use

with older adults. Often, too, skill levels of

enrollees are not assessed initially, nor is place

ment of enrollees after completion of training

guaranteed. 69 As a result, participation rates

are often low.

In the past, few retraining efforts for displaced workers have been sponsored by industry, for a variety of reasons, including: the lack

of local alternative career opportunities, for

which instruction could be provided; workers

‘

7 Harris-Bowlsbey, op. cit., 1983.

“’Free Courses Offer Jobless a 2d Chance, ” New York !Ilmes,

June 28, 1983.

‘

gFor a detailed account of one such program see “Retraining ‘83?” UTashington Post, Nov. 6, 7, 8, and 9, 1983. The series

describes a technician training program for former production

line workers at General Motors’ Southgate Plant in southern

California.

— — .- ——.——

who resisted retraining in hopes that they

would be called back to their old jobs; and the

inability of companies closing plants to afford

the cost of retraining displaced workers.70 To

date, most of the retraining programs established have been paid for with Federal funds.

For example, the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program was the key funding source for

the relocation programs of the 1970’s. Special

retraining projects for individuals affected by

massive layoffs were funded through Department of Labor discretionary grants.71 In recent

years, State and local governments, through

their economic development agencies, have

begun to establish State training systems and

skills centers. These centers aim to attract new

industries to their geographic areas by providing them with a pretrained work force.

They are often sources of training for displaced

workers who meet entry eligibility requirements. 72

The following factors complicate the process

of providing retraining for displaced workers:

1) many have been out of school for a number

of years and are uncomfortable with classrooms and instructional approaches designed

for use with younger and less experienced

students; 2) many have families and feel they

cannot participate in education and training

programs unless they also receive some form

of stipend for living expenses or payment for

work performed while engaged in on-the-job

training; and 3) many need specialized job

counseling and placement assistance in order

to determine how best to utilize their present

skills in preparing for new careers and in seeking out new employment opportunities.

Retraining programs established with the

special needs of displaced workers in mind—

programs in which their current skills and

knowledge base are taken into account—are

critical if the United States is to minimize the

‘“Jeanne P. Gordus, Paul Jarley, and Lewis Ferman, Plant

Closings and Econom”c Dislocation (Kalamazoo, Mich.: W.E.

Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 1981).

7] Worker Adjustment to Plant Shutdowns and Mass Layoffs:

An Analysis of Program Experience and Poiicy Options

(Washington, D. C.: National Alliance of Business, March 1983).

“Ibid.
Ch, 6—Education, Training. and Retraining Issues • 253

— — —— ————— —.-——— —

problems of worker dislocation and increased

use of PA on the manufacturing work force.

Often, pretraining programs are required to

address basic skills deficiencies or to reinforce

basic skills, such as math, or to reinforce skills

that have not been utilized in the jobs previously held by these workers.

Whether or not retraining is required for

continued participation in the work force, the

two types of services that most displaced

workers need are job counseling or outplacement and retraining. These are discussed in

more detail below.

Job Counseling/Outplacement

There are many similarities between the

needs of displaced salaried workers for job

counseling and placement assistance and the

needs of displaced hourly production line

workers. Both groups require assistance in

assessing their marketable skills and in identifying job opportunities in which their skills

may be utilized. If new skills need to be developed, both salaried and hourly workers need

assistance in identifying appropriate sources

of training and retraining. However, there is

a marked difference in the ability of hourly

workers to “ . . . articulate value rather than

need in representing themselves to prospective employers. ”73 For example, in responding

to the question, “Why should I hire you?” the

answer given by the former hourly employee

will often be, “Because I need it to support

my family, “ rather than “Because I have the

following skills. ” Organizations that have provided job counseling services to production

line workers have noted that former hourly

employees are frequently unable to project a

positive image of themselves and tend to think

of themselves only in terms of their previous

jobs. Tom Jackson, whose consulting firm has

worked with hourly employees displaced from

the transportation, metalworking, electronics,

petrochemical, and retail sales industries, describes the primary goal of job counseling and

outplacement for these workers in this way:

1ntewiew with Tom Jackson, chairman, The Career Development Team, Inc., March 1983,

The fundamental issue here is to go beyond

job title to the individual and the skills he or

she possesses, as well as the qualities. Our job

is to help the individual to reestablish his/her

fundamental versatility and, through it, to

adapt to change. The qualities that are unique

to an individual are the forces that embody

that person’s ability to develop new skills.

This is what we so often miss when we just

look at the job a person has performed, rather

than looking at the total person. Unfortunately, our educational institutions and many employers reinforce this limited view of the

individual.74

Job Clubs and Seminars. -One of the most

successful forms of job counseling and outplacement for former production line workers

has been the job club, an organized group of

unemployed workers who meet frequently to

discuss and reinforce each other’s job seeking

.

“Interview with Tom Jackson, op. cit., March 1983.

Raymond O. was employed for 17 years as a Research

Assistant with the Jones & Laughlin Steel Corp. in

Pittsburgh, Pa. When he lost his job, he enrolled in the

Robotics Installation and Repair Program developed

especially for displaced steel workers by the

Community College of Allegheny County, in close cooperation with the Westinghouse Corp., a producer of

robotics equipment, Now Mr. O. attends classes 5

nights a week and works for a contractor during

the day installing robots
254 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace — —

efforts. Job clubs are usually limited to 25 people or less. Sessions are devoted to job counseling and obtaining job leads, often with the help

of professional counselors, and to practicing

interviews. The other common type of job

counseling for former hourly production personnel is job search seminars delivered by

trained consultants.” Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., in conjunction with plant closings in

Conshohocken, Pa., and Los Angeles in 1980,

was the first U.S. firm to provide job counseling and outplacement to hourly production

line workers, in addition to salaried administrative and supervisory personnel.76 Six case

studies of plant closings prepared for use in

conjunction with a 2-day conference on plant

closings sponsored by the Department of

Labor in 1981 all stressed the importance of

getting displaced workers actively involved in

readjustment processes, including counseling

and motivation sessions.77

Other Sources of Counseling and Placement

Assistance.—The U.S. Employment Service,

established under the Wagner-Peyser Act of

1933, has over 2,800 offices across the Nation.

While the Employment Service offers all unemployed persons access to job listings and

assistance in matching their skills to available

job opportunities, the counseling and placement services it provides are extremely limited

in scope. This is due partly to redefinitions

over the years by the U.S. Department of Labor of the primary clientele for the Employment Service. For example, in 1965, the emphasis of the Employment Service was to be

on working with the “employable’ ’-individuals who already possessed fairly marketable

job skills, but who needed access to listings

of available jobs. By 1971, however, the focus

of Employment Service efforts was changed

to working with those who were viewed by employers as “least employ able’ ’–individuals

lacking basic math, reading, and language

skills, and possessing physical or personal

“National Alliance of Business, op. cit., 1983.

“Tom Jackson, “Industrial Outplacement at Goodyear-Part

2: the Consultant’s Viewpoint, ” The Personnel Admim”strator,

March 1980, pp. 45-48.

“Plant Closings: What Can Be Learned From Best Practice

(Washington, D. C.: U.S. Department of Labor, 1982).

characteristics perceived as barriers to employability. With this shift in focus, most of

the counseling provided by Employment Service personnel was received by those who were

least “job-ready,” or who had mental or emotional problems.’a

Given the changes in the designated audience for the Employment Service over the

years since its creation, it is difficult to

estimate how useful a tool it has been to displaced workers. Under the Trade Act of 1974,

legislation designed to provide adjustment

and relocation assistance to workers displaced

as a direct result of foreign competition, the

Employment Service is designated to administer employment services for the Trade Readjustment Assistance Program (TRA). For

fiscal year 1981, the Department of Labor reported that of the 79,000 workers registered

with the Employment Service under TRA,

only 7,000 were placed in jobs as a result of

Employment Service assistance.79

The Employment Service (called the Job

Service in some States) has been designated

to provide counseling and placement assistance to displaced workers under Title III of

the newly enacted Job Training Partnership

Act (JTPA). However, employers have been

reticent over the years to list available job

openings with the Employment Service/Job

Service, partly because of the perception that,

since its establishment, the agency has handled predominantly jobs with the lowest pay

and the highest turnover.80 These conditions,

unless corrected, may influence how effective

a role the Job Service can play in counseling

and assisting displaced workers eligible for

assistance under JTPA.81

CETA and Job Counseling/Outplacement. –

Displaced workers were among the target

groups eligible for assistance under Title IIC of the Comprehensive Employment and

—————

“Barton, op. cit., 1982.

“Employment and Training Report of the President, 1983.

80Barton, op. cit., 1982; testimony: U.S. Chamber of Commerce; National Alliance of Business, Committee for Economic

Development in hearings before the Joint Economic Committee, Sept. 16, 23, 26, 1983.

“National Alliance of Business, March 1983.
—

Training Act (CETA). Under this section of

the act, workers displaced through mass layoffs or plant closings were eligible for retraining, but only if they had received official notice

of layoff within 6 months of their day of application and if the local CETA prime sponsor

could certify that there was little or no opportunity for these workers to find employment

in the same or an equivalent occupation within

that geographic area. Given the complexity of

the eligibility requirements, and also the 6.5-

percent limit on retraining for those who did

not meet standard income eligibility requirements, the infrequency of advance notice of

plant closings, and the overall mission of

CETA to serve the economically disadvantaged, few CETA prime sponsors used Title

II-C moneys to retrain displaced workers.82 In

addition, while the intent of the CETA legislation was for counseling and placement assist-

“Ibid.

Ch 6—Education, Training, and Retralnlng Issues Ž 255

ance to be provided by local CETA offices or

designated contractors, pressures on local

CETA personnel to “train and place” resulted

in little time for bona fide counseling and

placement assistance.83

In summary, from available evidence, it appears that job search counseling and placement assistance have been effective tools in

assisting displaced workers in improving their

morale and self-image, and in developing adequate job search skills. The most effective

sources of job counseling and outplacement

services utilized to date with displaced workers have been job clubs and job search seminars delivered by trained consultants. However, in most instances, these services were

delivered at the discretion of individual

employers and have not been made widely

available.

‘

- s3Barton, ~p. cit., 1982.

Education and Training in Europe and Japan

An education system in any country is a reflection of the values and traditions of the

society it serves. As such, it is difficult to compare and contrast one national instructional

system with another without making allowances for cultural and economic differences.

Other distinctions in education systems, such

as the ratio of public to private institutions,

further complicate the process. Over the past

year, a number of national studies have been

critical of the U.S. education system and have

identified attributes of instructional programs

in Japan and Europe to be considered for adoption in this country. This section of the chapter

will examine some of the similarities and differences between the United States, Europe,

and Japan in approaches taken to instruction

that serves as a foundation for PA-related

skills development or that develops skills required in automated manufacturing.

Summary of Comparative Data

In the mid-1970’s, the National Center for

Education Statistics (NCES) reviewed and

summarized findings from several studies that

compared education in the United States with

that of nine other countries: Canada, France,

Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. NCES

found that for the age group 25 to 64, the

United States ranked first in adult educational

attainment, with an average of 11.1 years of

formal instruction. The United Kingdom was

next highest, at 10.2 years of formal schooling, but closely followed by Japan, at 10.0

years (see fig. 21). By 1976, in all countries except Canada and the Netherlands, adult males

aged 15 and over had slightly higher rates of

educational attainment than females in the

same age group. However, by 1980-81, the
256 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—.. — —. —— — —

Figure 21 .—Comparison of Years of Formal Instruction Completed by Adults

Countr y

Canad a

France

Germany (F R )

Italy

Japa n

Netherlands

Norway

Swede n

(United Kingdom

United States

Education

Total Compulsory education Education received received

educatio n received by age 15 at age 15 18 after age 18

9 7

[

I 1 ;

$

I

I

1 1

I I I

9 1

1 1

I 1 :

I 1

I

+

9 2

1 , I

6 4

I

I

1

I

I

I

I

I I

I

100 I

I

I

1

8 8 I I

8 7 1 I

I .

102

11 1 , 1

1 I 1 1

Age 5 6 7 8 9 “ “ ‘ “ - - ‘ 16 - - - - -

Grade completed

10 11 12 13 14 15 1/ 15 19 20

8th 12t h 14 h

SOURCE National Center for Education Statistics 1976

numbers of 18-year-old men and women in the

Community of Ten* countries who were fulltime students had increased by 36 percent for

each sex.84 NCES found education was a major government expenditure in all the nations

examined, but Canadian expenditures represented the highest percentage of GNP (6.5),

closely followed by the Netherlands (6.3 percent). U.S. expenditures in the year examined

(1973) represented only 5.1 percent of GNP,

while in Japan (for 1971), education-related expenditures amounted to only 3.0 percent of

GNP (see fig. 22). During the the period 1960-

70, the United States had less growth in higher education enrollments not attributable to

population growth than any of the other countries studied. Immediately prior to the period

examined, the United States had greater rates

of higher education enrollment growth than

any of the other nations (see table 54).

Vocational Training—A 1982 comparative

study of vocational training systems in the

*Federal Republic of Germany, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark, and Sweden.

“’’Education and Training, ” Eurostat Statistical Bulletin,

Oct. 28, 1982.

Federal Republic of Germany, Austria, Korea,

Taiwan, Spain, Holland, Japan, Liechtenstein,

Great Britain, Ireland, Portugal, Switzerland,

and the United States, found that vocational

education is not highly regarded in these countries relative to its importance in producing

skilled labor for continued industrial development. The vocational programs of the countries examined varied considerably in scope,

enrollment levels, and available resources. For

the most part, countries with long-established

vocational training tended to consider apprenticeship as a broad-based foundation for lifelong, skills improvement. In contrast, nations

that required rapid skills development in order

to meet the needs of accelerated rates of industrial growth seemed to favor shorter term, spe

cialized instruction delivered by vocational

training schools or by industry personnel at

manufacturing sites.86

An important measure of the quality of initial vocational preparation (secondary level) is

‘

sComparison Among the Different Vocational Trm”m”ng

Systemsin the Countries %rticipatingin the I. I?. W., International Organization for the Promotion of Vocational Training

and the International Competitions of Vocational Training for

Young People, July 1982.
Ch 6—Educatio Training, and Retraining Issues . 257

Figure 22.—Comparison of Public Expenditures for Education

Current publi c

expenditure s

$615000000 0 Canada 1971

$420000000 0 France 1970

$5,030000000 Germany (F R ) 1970

$689000000 0 Japan 1971

$234000000 0 Netherlands 1971

$740000,000 Norway 1972

$2170.00000 0 Sweden 1972

$425000000 0 United Kingdom. 1970

$69 400000000 United States 1973

S(JU H(;E Nat IK, I.il Ct,rlt.r f r Ed I 31 WI Stat ~t IL s 1976

Percent of GN P

 6 5

3 0

2 7

,

3 0

5 0

5 2

3 4

5 1

I 1

0 2 5 5 0 7.5

Table 54.—Growth of Full-time Enrollment in Education, by Level in Selected Countries, 1960-70

.

Annual average compound growth rate —

In school-age population

Country Secondary Higher –

Canada ., . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 4.4

France ... ... ... . . . . . . . 1.3 4.1

Germany (F, R.) ... . . . . . . . . 1.4 –2.1

Italy ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . –0.2 0.1

Japan . . . . ., . . ... . . . . . . . – 1.3 2.0

Netherlands. ... . . . . . . . 0.4 3.4

Norway . . . . . . . . . 0.9 4.2

Sweden . . . . . . . . ... ... ... – 1.3 3.4

United Kingdom ... .. . –0.1 2.4

United Statesb ... ... ... . 2.8 4.1

aEs t I mated

b 195970

In enrollment

Secondary

. —.—.

6.0

3.8

3.3

5.7

– 0.2

2.8

NA

3,5

1 ,2a

3.1

Higher

11,3

11.2

7,3

9.5

9.0

7,8

9.4a

NA

1 O.0a

8.3

In enrollment not

attributable to

population change — — .

Secondary Higher —

2.6 -

6.6

2.5 7.1

1.9 9.6

6,0 9.4

1,1 6.9

2.4 4.3

NA 4,7

4,9 NA

1 .3a 7.4a

0.3 4.0

SOURCE Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Paris, France Education Statitisica Yearbook 1975 VOI 1 sec II

the ability of those who have participated to

demonstrate the mastery of skills. The International Skill Olympics, sponsored by the International Organization for the Promotion of

Vocational Training, are designed to provide

young people representing 14 member nations

with opportunities to gain recognition for excellence in the skilled trades.

The United States has participated in six international competitions since 1973. As illustrated in figure 23, the United States has had

the lowest average level of performance over

the first five competitions, with a score as

much as 24 points behind Korea and Japan

and as much as 15 points behind Switzerland,

Austria, Germany, and France. Although the
258 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

———

Figure 23.— Results of the International Skills

Olympics

Average level of performance of national competlfors [n

International competttlon since 1975

Country 50 60 70 80 90 Score

Austria

France

Germany

Japan

Korea

Liechtenstein

Switzerland

Taiwan

United States

Belgium

Ireland

Netherlands

Portugaf

Spain

United Kingdom

67.82

63.50

66.30

73.80

78.20

69.00

68.50

66.30

53.60

55.58

57.20

61.70

53.80

60.80

58.30

United States ranked first in the auto mechanics competitions and third in the demonstration of electronics skills (see fig. 24), it held

last place in the precision machining, welding,

and construction trades. In assessing U. S.

performance, an official of the Vocational Industrial Clubs of America, Inc. (VICA) has

noted that the countries who placed highest

in the International Skills Olympics include

our toughest industrial competitors. VICA attributes the state of preapprenticeship trades

skills in the United States, at least in part, to "

. . . an adversarial relationship that has developed between government, industry, labor

and education regarding the production of a

highly skilled, basic trades work force. ”86

“Harold Lewis, Report on Participation in the International

Skill Olympics, presented at the American Vocational Association Annual Conference, December 1983.

Figure 24.— Results of the International Skills

Olympics

Electronic s

Country 50 60 70 80 90 Score

Central European 69.65

United Kingdom

and

Other European 59.08

Asian 81.03

United States 68.50

Features of the Japanese Education and

Training System With Relevance for

Programmable Automation

This section highlights aspects of education

and training systems in Japan that lay the

groundwork for or develop skills directly

related to programmable automation.

The Japanese education system is known

throughout the world for its rigorous curriculum—particularly on the elementary and secondary levels. In a recent book on Japanese

high schools, Thomas P. Rholen of the Center

for Japanese Studies, University of California,

estimated that as a result of an accelerated

elementary and secondary curricula, “ . . . the

average Japanese high school student has the

equivalent basic knowledge of the average

American college graduate. ” One in ten Japanese students do not finish high school, compared with one in four Americans.87

The Japanese education system was reformed after World War II. During this period, many new high schools, colleges, and

universities were established and education

through the junior high school level became

mandatory for all citizens. This change in the

mandatory education requirement and the

broadening of access to instruction was a major contributor to Japanese industrialization.88

Emphasis on science and math education begins in the early elementary grades. Three

hours each week of math instruction in first

grade is gradually increased to 6 hours each

week in grades 4 through 6. Science education

is provided by elementary school teachers who

did not specialize in science but who have attended in-service training programs in govemment-established science education centers.

While the goal of science education in elementary schools is to create a positive attitude

toward science, curriculum is more structured

on the junior and senior high levels. The Japanese Ministry of Education, under authority of the Science Education Promotion Law

“Thomas P. Rholen, Japan High Schools (University of

California Press, 1983).

88“Y. Oshima, “Recent Trends of Manufacturing Technology

in Japan, ” Automatic, vol. 17, No. 3, May 1981, pp. 421-440.
Ch. 6—Education, Trainlng, and Retrainlig Issues . 259

of 1953, has established a program to improve

elementary and secondary school science education—a program that includes grants to individual schools for the purchase of science

equipment. 89

Japanese students who goon to high school

enter one of a number of programs: general,

engineering, agriculture, or commerce. go Examinations are required for high school entrance and the scores received on these exams

determine each individual’s occupational and

social status. Vocational schools are available

to students who do not achieve high ranking

on high school entrance exams. The entire high

school curriculum is geared to preparing students for highly competitive, college and university entrance examinations.gl

Shortages of technical and engineering instructors on the junior college, college and university levels have resulted in few robotics

course offerings in Japan. In addition, some

universities do not consider robotics an appropriate topic for inclusion in engineering curricula. As a result, engineering graduates often

require additional instruction before they are

prepared to work in automated manufacturing facilities. However, some educational institutions that are not under the jurisdiction

of the Japanese Ministry of Education are beginning to offer robotics programs in response

to the needs of Japanese industry .92

Japanese manufacturers now operate a few

engineering schools of their own. These institutions offer programs in robotics operation

and maintenance, as well as industrial engineering programs that include robotics instruction. 93 In Japan, industry assumes responsibility for training and retraining its employees. Within firms where “lifetime employ-

..— —

“U.S. Science and Engineering Education and Manpower:

Background; Supply and Demand; and Comparison With Japan,

the Soviet Union and West Germany, report prepared by the

Congressional Research Service for the Subcommittee on Science, Research and Technology, House Committee on Science

and Technology, April 1983.

‘OSouji Inagaki, Education and Trtu”m”ng: Comment From

Japan, paper presented at the 13th ISIR/Robot 7.

“Rholen, op. cit., 1983.

‘21nagaki, op. cit., 1983.

‘31nagaki, op. cit., 1983.

ment” is the official policy, industry-provided

instruction is a necessity, since the majority

of new employees recruited have just completed their formal education.g

’ The amount

and type of training and retraining received

by an individual is highly dependent on the

stage of the worker’s career and, to a lesser

extent, on expected tenure. Training for entrylevel and young workers is more extensive and

formal than instruction for older employees,

although experienced workers automatically

receive formal training upon promotion.gb

A study conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Labor on the impact on employment of

robotics and NC equipment in 10,000 Japanese manufacturing facilities found that over

60 percent of the companies had initiated specialized training programs in conjunction with

adoption of these technologies. 96 However,

shortages of technical instructors are an impediment to the establishment of PA-related

training in many Japanese firms, just as they

are for U.S. companies. Producers of PA equipment and systems provide some training, but

there is no information available on its nature

or content. As is the case in the United States,

small manufacturing firms do not have the

time or the resources to provide PA-related

instruction to employees.97

Training Offered by a Japanese Firm in the

United States.–Training programs offered by

Nissan Motor Manufacturing Corp. U.S.A. are

representative of employee education and

training provided by the Nissan Corp. in

Japan. Nissan U. S.A. ’S truck manufacturing

facility in Smyrna, Term., is one of the most

automated of Nissan’s plants, with 219 robots

and other forms of automated equipment and

systems in use in body assembly, stamping,

and painting operations; and a “just-in-time”

parts delivery system.

The training system adopted at Nissan

U.S.A. is one manifestation of the distinctive

g4Paul H. &On, l%e Robot Scene in Japan: An Update (New

York: Daiwa Securities America, Inc., Sept. 7, 1983).

‘5James A. Orr, et al., U.S.-Japan Comparative Stud~ of

Employment Adjustment (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Department

of Labor-Japan Ministry of Labor, November 1982).

‘Aron, op. cit., 1983. ~71nagAi, op. cit., 1983.
260 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

approach being taken to plant management.

In keeping with a streamlined, five-level management structure, an interest in encouraging

employee participation in plant decisionmaking and the need to move employees to different stations in the facility to improve productivity, Nissan U.S.A. has developed special

maintenance technician, manufacturing technician, and supervisor training programs for

its personnel. Technician training is designed

to develop multiple skills and produce an employee who can perform a number of different

jobs and work effectively as a member of a

team. Instructors are Nissan personnel, professors from nearby universities, or training

consultants. Some of the supervisory personnel were sent to Japan for instruction lasting

from 1 to 4 months that took place in selected

Nissan plants prior to the opening of the

Smyrna facility in 1983. Production line personnel who are not technicians or supervisors

receive a minimum of 21 hours of general

instruction, then as much as 20 hours of jobspecific training, such as body assembly.*

*NOW that the Japanese use the term “technician” relatively

broadly, applying it to individuals designated production

workers by Americans.

Nissan U.S.A. has opened a 30,000 square

foot, onsite training facility that contains

classrooms and a shop area that has demonstration models of all robots in use in the plant,

a paint booth and a maintenance area.98 Figures 25, 26, and 27 illustrate the training processes for these training programs, from employee selection for preemployment training

through certification. Instruction offered at

the Smyrna plant may be a reflection of the

more extensive use of programmable automation by Japanese firms to date, or it may simply be a reflection of a different approach to

training for production line personnel than

that taken by American companies.

“’’Nissan Trains U.S. Workers in Japan, ” Automotive News,

May 31, 1982; address by Marvin T. Runyon, President and

Chief Executive Officer, Nissan Motor Manufacturing Corp.

U.S.A. before the Foreign Correspondents Club of Japan,

Tokyo, Japan, Mar. 29, 1983; material provided by Larry P.

Seltz, Director, Personnel Development, Nissan U. S. A.; “Stringent Screening, Training by Nissa, ” Amer-l”c~ lllet~ &f~ket

Metalworking News, June 6, 1983.

Assessment: Capacity of the U.S. Instructional System to

Meet the Challenge Posed by Programmable Automation

Current Instructional Capacity

There is little information on the number of

educational institutions with course offerings

or full-blown curricula for programmable automation, with the exception of robotics and

computer graphics. Robotics International, an

affiliate group of the Society for Manufacturing Engineers, conducted a survey of over

2,000 trade and technical schools, community colleges, and universities to identify robotics training and education activities in North

America. Findings indicated that, in the summer of 1982, there were 27 institutions that

listed robotics degrees or options among their

programs and 74 more that offered robotics

courses. gg Table 55 is a listing of the responding institutions categorized by type of program and, within types, by kind of institution.

The amount of educational activity related to

robotics probably reflects the large amount of

attention this form of PA has received over

the past few years more than it does the degree

of sophistication currently found in robotics

curricula.

Computer Graphics World, a monthly, commercial journal that tracks advances in computer graphics software and applications, con-

... —

‘Directory of North American Robotics Education and Training Institutions, Robotics International, 1983.
Ch 6— Education, —...._— — ———-.————-—— -—— —— — —.

Tralning, and Retraining Issues ● 261

Figure 25.—Maintenance Technician Training at Nissan U.S.A.

f .

Select Ion

for pre-employment Orientation Pre-employment Employee

-

training training selection

● State of Tennessee ● Welcom e

criteria ● Background an d

history

• Nissan critera ● Benefits an d

advantage s

● Interviews ● Enrollment

 Produc t

familiarizatio n

● Personne l

inroductio n

● Electrica l ● Technica l

e Iectronic skills

● Hydraulic assesmen t

pneumatic ● Supervisory

● Weldin g skill s

● Genera l assets assesent

benc h

● Basic machin e

technology

● Basic machinin g

I I I I

*

t

Job

instruction

training

6

Specific machine o r

controls training

Presented in training

center or vendor

facility

Presented by

vendor/NMMC staf f

provide versatility

● EIectrical/electronic

● Hydraulic/pneumatic 

● Weldin g

● General bench

● Basic machin e

technology

● Basicmachining 

• Provide versatility

trainin g trainin g familiarization

Leader

certification

Maintenance

technician

certification

SOURCE Nissian Motor Manufacturing Corporation Corporation U.S.A

ducted a survey in 1983 designed to identify Results of the survey indicate that 84 univeruniversities that offer the following types of sities in the United States and five universities

computer graphics instruction: in Canada provide one or more types of comComputer graphics research, puter graphics instruction in their engineering, drafting, computer science, or art pro- nimation,

CAD and CA M,

grams. However, the survey did not evaluate

-- . — the relative qualitv of these promams.loo

design/architecture,

design/graphic arts,

land resource,

medicine, and

other.

1OO’’Survey of University Computer Graphics Instruction, ”

Computer Graphics World. vol. 7, No. 1, January 1984, pp. 54,

56, 58.
262 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

——— — — —

Figure 26.—Manufacturing Technician Training at Nissan U.S.A.

-f ●

Select ion Pre- Employee for pre- ) , Orientation v employment L 7 —

employment training select ion

● state accep-) ● Welcom e

tanc e Background an d

standard s history

● Interviews ● Benefits an d

advantages

 Enrollmen t

. Produc t

familiary -

zation

● Personne l

 introduction

● Use of basic ● Technica l

tool s skills

● Manufacturin g Attendanc e

processes . Intervie w

- Painting

- Welding

- Bod y

finishing

- Body

assembly/

disassembly

. Safety

● Manual dexterity

● Training by supervisor

● Training by supplier ●

● Training by enginerring ●

personnel

●

SkiIIs training

Equipment train

Presented in tra

center

Provide versatill

● Specialized skills

ng training

n I ng ● Equipment familaiar

ization

Y ● Quality circles

training

Certified

operator

SOURCE Nissan Motor Manufacturing Corporation U S A
—

Ch 6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 263 — . — —

Figure 27.— Manufacturing Supervisor Training at Nissan U.S.A.

+

Selection for Pre-employment Final Orientation Training

pre- — trim & chassis select ion assignment in

employment paint plants 80-120 hrs. Japan

● State acceptable ● Use of basic ● Interviews ●

standards tools ●

● Assessment ● Manufacturing

questions processes

● Interviews ● paintin g

weldin g

-body finshin g

- body assembly

disassembly

● Safet y ●

● Manual dexterity ●

●

General orientation

Technical train g

-Ind engrg

-Proc engrg

-Qual control

-Qual circles

-Safety

-Cost control

-Human relations

Nissan philosophies

Japanese language

Job Instruction

training

●

●

●

●

Correctly perform

each operation in

his/her department

department

Draft job lnstruc

tion sheets for

each operation

Observe supervisory

practices

Develop a task check

Iist defining

shift preparatio n

- shift start-up

shift continuation

-shift completion

administativ e

general

Participate in Q.

Control circle sessions

●

1 1 1 I I

1 1

Job instruction Selected machine Leadership/team Supervisory/

training or process specific buildinglemployee technical

trairning involvement skills program

Certificatiion for

subsequent groups

correct per for

mance of super “

V isory skills

Sign off by trainee

supervisor and

trainer (operations .

m a n age r )

Initial group will

receive close

supervision from

operations

manager

Instructor trainers

Will be Identified

for subsequent

groups

● Continue job In ● Supplier training ●

struction training plan

● Finalize job in- ● Engieerin g ●

struction sheets trainers

and training aids ● Local schoo l

resources ●

● Japanese trainers ●

● Training team

members

●

●

●

●

●

Recognition and ●

feedback ●

Pro employee

comunicatio n

●

skills ●

problem SO lving

Improving and

matinin g

performance

Giving work

assignments 

Small group

leadership

Quality circles

Interviewing skills

EEOC training

Basic electrical

Basic hydraulics

pneumatics

Weldin g

Hand tools and

product 1017 power

tools
264 ● Computerized Manufacturing AutomatIon: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 55.—Robotics Degree Programs and Course

Offerings in North America, 1982

State Number State Number

1. Hooorlcs aegrees ana[or

options /nIvbotics as part

of an engineering degree

2-year schools

Colorado 1

Florida. ... 2

Illinois ., 1

Michigan ... . . . 6

Ohio . . . . . 1

South Carolina. 1

4-year schools

Florida . . 2

Michigan ... . . . . . 1

New York ., ., 1

North Carolina 1

Oregon ., 1

Pennsylvania . . . 1

South Carolina 1

Graduate-level schools

. - . . . . ., Delaware . . . . . 1

Florida . . . . . 2

Illinois . . . . 1

Indiana . . . . 1

Michigan . . 2

Missouri 1

New Jersey. ... 1

New York ., 1

North Carolina 1

Ohio ., . . 1

South Carolina. 1

Tennessee ., 1

Texas . . . . ., 2

Wisconsin 1

Canada . . . 1

Ill. “Support courses”

Georgia ., ., .,

lllinios .

New York .

North Carolin a

Pennsylvani a

Texas .,

IL Robotics courses

2-year schools

Alabama . . . . . .

Arizona ., .

Florida ., . . . . .

Georgi a

Illinois ... . . . . .

Indian a

lowa ., . . .

Maryland ., . . .

Michigan ... . . .

North Dakota . . .

Ohio . .

Tennessee ., . .

Wisconsin. . ,

4-year schools

Arizona . ,

Arkansas . . . .

California . . . .

Colorado ,,, . . .

Delawar e

District of Columbia

Florida. . . .

Georgia. . .

Illinois .

Indiana .

Michigan ., . ,

Misssissipp i

Missouri .

Nebraska . . . . .

New Jersey.. .

New Yor k

North Carolina..

Ohio, 

Pennsylvania . . .

South Carolin a

Tennesse e

Texa s

West Virginia:: 1

Wisconsin . . . .

1

1

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

;

1

1

;

1

3

1

2

1

1

4

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

5

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Graduate-level schools

California 1

.-

generally part of a

robotics degree

program

2-year schools

Alabama .

Arizon a

California .. .

Colorad o

Connecticut ,. . . .

Florida. ., . .

Georgia . . . .

Illinois . . ., . .

Indiana . . . . .

Iowa .,., ... ,..

Massachusett s

Michigan ,., ..,..

Mississippi . . . .

Missouri .., ..,

Nebraska, ,.. . .

New Jersey. ., . .

New Yor k

North Carolina ,..

Ohio ., . . . . .,

Oklahoma ., . ,

Oregon .

Pennsylvania .

South Carolina . .

Tennessee ., .,

Texas . . .

Virginia . . . .

Washingto n

Wisconsi n

4-year schools

California ., . .

Illinois . . . ,.

Indiana ,,. .

Louisiana . .

Massachusett s

Michigan . ,

Mississippi . .

New York .

North Dakota ,..

Ohio . ,

Texas ..,., ,,. .,

Canada ,.

2

1

3

2

1

1

1

6

1

4

;

1

1

2

1

3

6

7

2

3

3

3

1

6

1

3

7

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

3

1

3

1

1

Graduate-level schools

California ,. .,,,.. 1

Hawaii. . 1

Nevada 1

Ohio. . . . . . . . 1

Texas. 1

Utah 1

SOURCE Robotics International, Dlrecfory of North ~rnerlcarI F?oLIo/Ics Educa.

flon and Tra/n/ng Instlfuflons

s noted earlier in this chapter, the instructional requirements for programmable automation are still emerging. But even based on

current skill requirements for automated manufacturing facilities, widespread use of programmable automation would pose challenges

(in the form of increased demand for the development of certain skills) to elementary, secondary, postsecondary, and continuing education. Industry-based and labor union-based

instructional programs will also be affected

by the increased need for technical instruction.

The present capacities of the U.S. instructional system to prepare students for employment in computer-automated manufacturing

facilities and other types of work environments are limited by shortages of equipment,

inadequate facilities relative to present and

potential future demand, and inadequate supply of quality instructors for technical and

engineering education. In addition, shortages

of science and math instructors on the elementary, secondary, and postsecondary level complicate the process of developing adequate

basic skills in individuals who may wish to

prepare themselves for careers in automated

manufacturing. Shortages of state-of-the-art

equipment and of technical instructors are also

problems faced in industry-sponsored, in-plant

instructional programs.

Based on OTA research, it is questionable

whether the capacity represented by the U.S.

education, training, and retraining system will

be sufficient to meet the challenge of widespread use of programmable automation,

should extensive adoption of programmable

automation occur. Instructional institutions

are willing and interested in meeting the challenge, but it is unlikely that they will be able

to do so unless equipment and instructor

shortages are resolved. In addition, unless

stronger links are developed between industry,

labor, educators, and government, it is questionable whether programs now in development and those that will be designed in the

future will be in keeping with present and anticipated PA-related skills requirements. In-
. — —

Ch.6—Education, Training, and Retraining Issues ● 265

tersector cooperation is also needed to ensure that provide education and career counseling

that labor market information is widely dis- services; employers who need the information

seminated among all those affected by pro- for long-range planning; and labor unions, who

grammable automation: i.e., individuals pre- require it to advise their members of the need

paring to enter the work force; institutions to retrain or otherwise enhance skills.
—

Chapter 7

Programmable Automation

Industries
Contents

Page

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ....................,,269

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...................269

Principal Programmable Automation Industries: Evolution and Outlook. .271

CAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., . ..............271

Numerical Control and Flexible Manufacturing Systems . . . . . . . . ......278

Robots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........................287

Other PA Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............299

Computer-Integrated Manufacturing: Potential Market Developments ....300

Themes and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...........302

Tables

Table No. Page

56. Estimated Worldwide CAD Market (Turnkey) by Application. . ......273

57. Estimated Turnkey CAD Market Shares . ........................274

58. Robots: U.S. Producer’s Domestic Shipments, by Types, 1979-83 .. ...290

59. U.S. Robot Population by Application and Industry, End of 1982 ...,291

60. Some Agreements Existing Between U.S. and Foreign

Robotics Producers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............295

61. Prospects of Different Classes of Robot Vendors . ..................297

62. installed Operating Industrial Robots by Application, Dec.31, 1982. .298

Figures

Figure No. Page

28. Machine Tool Import Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..........,...280

29. Break downof Japanese Numerically Controlled Machine Tool

Shipments by Size of End Users . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..282

30. Value of U.S. Shipments of Numerically Controlled Machine Tools

as a Percentage of Value of Total U.S. Machine Tool Shipments . . . . .283

31. Robot Market Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...........288

32.Typical Robot System Cost Breakdown . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ....293
Chapter 7

Programmable Automation Industries ——— ——

Summary

The principal programmable automation

(PA) industries grew slowly in their early

years. Development of the robot industry was

dominated by entrepreneurs. The U.S. Government, through programs aimed at improving military procurement, contributed to the

launch of other major PA industries, including

computer-aided design (CAD) and numerical

control (NC). Since the mid- to late 1970’s, PA

industries have grown rapidly even during the

past recessions; they are expected to continue

to do so throughout this decade. These industries are largely separate at this time, but a

unified computer-integrated manufacturing

(CIM) industry may emerge in the future.

Markets for programmable automation are

strongly international, and various forms of

interfirm cooperation blur distinctions among

firms by nationality. Further, PA suppliers are

providers of services as well as goods; the role

of hardware and of manufacturing among

these industries is considered much less strategically important than the role of software,

controls, and various forms of customer

support.

OTA’S evaluation of PA industries reveals

several broad themes. These are: 1) there has

been a discrepancy between vendor and buyer

views of needs and capabilities; 2) systems

planning and other services are key features

of PA supply, while manufacturing itself plays

a smaller role; 3) vendors are likely to package

and/or distribute hardware and software elements made by several firms; 4) both large and

small firms have played distinctive roles in the

development of PA markets; and 5) governments have had a major influence on PA market development.

Introduction

CAD, robots, NC machine tools, flexible

manufacturing systems (FMS), and other pro

grammable automation equipment and systems are supplied by industries that are currently more or less separate. Of the principal

PA industries, the NC industry is the oldest

and largest, dating from the 1950’s. While

CAD and robots were available by the 1960’s,

significant markets for these technologies did

not emerge until the 1970 ‘s. These industries

are now growing quickly.

The previously slow and uneven growth seen

in markets for automation goods and services

reflects a persistent mismatch between commercially available technologies and the willingness and ability of users to purchase them.

This may now be changing. Recent technological and economic trends—including improvements in computer control, improvements in

equipment interfacing, cost reductions, and a

growing interest in manufacturing productivity—have fueled rapid growth in PA sales during the last few years. These trends also have

blurred some of the distinctions among automation industries. They suggest that a single

market encompassing CIM may eventually

emerge. Whether or not this happens, industry

analysts forecast that the combined PA market may grow from under $5 billion in sales

today to $20 billion to $30 billion by 1990.*

—

*Note that published market estimates ~rary enormous].y. in

part because of different approaches to market definition. The

Arthur D. Little consulting firm, for example, contends that

the 1982 market was over $24 billion, including $11.5 billion

in “computing technology’, ” $6.26 in “CAM, ” $6.1 billion in

“automated materials handling, ” and $0.26 billion in robots.

This estimate appears to use very broad categories that may

apply to nonprogrammable automation products. American

Metal Market/Metalworkjng News, Sept. 26, 1983.

269
270 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

This chapter focuses on the producers and

sellers of PA equipment and systems, who

comprise the various PA industries. The discussion provides perspective on their roles as:

1) so-called “high-technology” enterprises, and

2) sources of employment. Insights into the

current and potential role of these businesses

in the U.S. economy is provided by describing their industrial structure (trends in the

number and types of firms), competitive conduct (e.g., product strategies), and their financial performance. This task is made difficult

by the uneven quality and availability of industry data; some industry data (e.g., for

robots) are available only through trade associations and are questioned even by trade

association staff.1 Since automation industries

are growing and changing, descriptions of current characteristics offer only a snapshot. Consequently, the chapter addresses changes in

automation industries over time. *

Although automation industries are growing relatively rapidly, much of their impact on

the economy will be realized indirectly. This

is because their principal customers are other

businesses, which adopt automation to use

in producing consumer and other producer

goods, from appliances to construction equipment. The direct contributions of these customers to the gross national product (GNP),

the balance of trade, and other indicators of

national economic well-being will thus derive

in part from the use of automated equipment

and systems; the size of those contributions

may reflect the extent and success of PA

applications. This is one of the reasons why

many analysts believe that programmable

automation will be increasingly important to

the Nation’s industrial base and, ultimately,

to national security.

—

‘See Jake Kirchner, “Government Must Support Robotics,

Says RIA President, ” American Metal Market/Metalworh”ng

News, Sept. 19, 1983. By contrast, note that data on equipment

production and use in Japan appear to be much more thorough

and accurate.

*Because pA industries are evolving relatively quickly, it is

hard to describe current conditions in enduring terms. Data pre

sented in this report reflect information available up to late

March 1984.

The broader the customer base for programmable automation, the greater the direct economic contribution of automation businesses.

For reference, it should be pointed out that the

machine-tool industry, a principal supplier of

capital goods to metalworking manufacturing

industries, is very small in terms of output and

its own employment (under 70,000 employees

in 1983 and under 80,000 employees in 1982,

down from about 100,000 in 1980; about twothirds are production workers).z By contrast,

the computing equipment industry, which is

less labor-intensive than the machine tool industry and which serves both industrial and

consumer markets, is much larger (employing

about 3,420,000 in 1982).3 PA producers come

from both of these industries and from others.

The ultimate growth and size of domestic

programmable automation industries will be

constrained because automation markets are

and always have been international. Although

the United States initiated the production and

use of many types of PA, these technologies

were adopted relatively quickly abroad. Japan,

the United Kingdom, France, Italy, West Germany, Sweden, and Norway are each significant sources of at least one type of programmable automation. This parallel development

of industries may be due, in part, to foreign

government support for automation development and use, although it is difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of such government support actions (see ch. 9). At present, U.S.

producers dominate U.S. markets for programmable automation. They also export automation products, and some U.S. firms have invested in the production of PA equipment and

systems abroad. For example, Unimation (now

part of Westinghouse) has a robot plant in

Telford, England, and Cincinnati Milacron has

several European machine tool plants. Unless

governments restrict access to national markets, international competition in automation

markets will continue to be strong.

— —

‘National Machine Tool Builders Association, 1983-84 Economic Handbook of the Mach”ne Tool IndustW.

‘Electronic Industries Association, 1983 Market Data Book.
—. .—— —

—— —

Near-term growth of domestic programmable automation industries will depend on

whether domestic economic conditions are

favorable to investment. The recent recessions

eroded the dramatic growth rates observed for

automation sales toward the end of the last

decade. Nevertheless, industry analysts commonly forecast rapid PA market growth for

the decade. For example, Predicasts, Inc., has

forecast that the combined market for “manufacturing computers, ’ CAD systems, machine tools and controls, and robots will grow

over 15 percent annually between 1982 -1987.4

Sales will double, according to that analysis,

attaining almost $15 billion by 1987. The analysis assumes a GNP growth rate in real terms

of 3.8 percent per year. A more sluggish economy would therefore mean lower PA sales.

Industry growth will also depend on the

ability of American managers to justify investments in programmable automation and

to become adept at using it. Inability to do

both has limited the diffusion of PA technologies. * In the future, attitudinal obstacles —.

4“Robots, CAD/CAM h Lead 1980’s Automation Surge, Says

Predicasts, ” The Battery Man, November 1983.

*W~e ~~t pr~uction costs tend not to vwwith choices

of conventional equipment, they can vary enormously for PA.

Conventional methods of investment analysis have been unable

to capture all changes in costs. Also, the conventional emphasis

on investments with quick paybacks overlooks the long-term

benefits of flexibility conveyed by PA.

Ch. 7. —Programmable Automation Industries . 271

— —

are likely to be lower because widespread concern (sometimes bordering on hysteria) about

international competitiveness, as well as trade

association activities, technical and trade publications, and various informal networking

activities are all familiarizing growing numbers of businessmen with PA’s nature and

potential benefits and costs. Conferences sponsored by the Society of Manufacturing Engineers (SME) and other professional and trade associations during the early 1980’s have included

numerous sessions on financial analysis and

other activities designed to help engineers persuade upper management to support automation. Meanwhile, anecdotal evidence suggests

that in a number of companies upper management is demanding programmable automation, even before specific applications are identified.

The remainder of this chapter addresses the

development of the CAD, NC (with FMS), and

robotics industries; characterizes related industrial activity; examines the potential for

a CIM market; and derives conclusions about

key traits of PA industries. Contrasts between

countries are examined to the extent that data

permit.

Principal Programmable Automation Industries:

Evolution and Outlook

CAD pensive mainframe computers. The diffusion

of CAD during the 1960’s was slow, limited

History by the cost of hardware and the requirements

The first CAD systems were developed by for extensive engineering and software supusers. In the late 1950’s and early 1960’s, air- port. Most early users were defense contractors in the aerospace and electronics indus- craft and automobile companies, whose prod- tries, where the U.S. Department of Defense ucts are very complex, developed their own (DOD) supported CAD development and use. software to aid in product design and engineering. Pioneer users, such as GM and Boe- A formal market for the purchase and sale

ing, were necessarily large firms because early of CAD emerged during the 1970’s, due in part

CAD and engineering required the use of ex- to improvements in computer hardware and
272 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— -.—

in operating systems which enabled more

firms to afford computers for increasingly

powerful work. Using microprocessors, miniand microcomputers made many tasks, including basic two-dimensional computer-aided

drafting, possible without a mainframe computer. The electronics industry, from component manufacturers to computer makers, provided a growing market for CAD systems.

Compared to mechanical manufacturing firms,

electronics firms were more comfortable with

computer-based technology. Their integratedcircuit (and circuit-board) design applications

were fundamentally two-dimensional, and

therefore well-suited to early CAD. Also, the

growing complexity of integrated circuits

made computer assistance in design increasingly necessary; manual design would require

exorbitant amounts of time and manpower.

Another early commercial application was in

two-dimensional drafting for mechanical

design.

During the 1970’s, improvements in software for two- and especially three-dimensional

CAD fueled a market expansion into mechanical and mapping as well as architecture,

engineering, and construction (AEC) applications. Some of these advances stemmed from

Government-funded efforts, which emphasized

aerospace and electronics applications for

CAD and the integration of CAD and CAM.*

Between 1973 and 1981, the CAD system

market grew from under $25 million in annual

sales to over $1 billion.5 Hardware and software makers entered the CAD market with

specific applications and packaged systems.

Firms that entered the CAD market to fill an

applications niche typically grew by increasing the variety of CAD applications they could

serve. Turnkey vendors, who assembled and

installed systems from components made by

various sources, also provided training, support, and both standard and custom software.

*Governmn t-9pon90 red programs, such as the DOD ICAM

and NASA I PAD programs, are described in ch. 8.

‘see Roger Rowand, “Manufacturing Makes a Move Into the

Future, ” Automotive News (Detroit: Automotive News Extra,

May 23, 1983). Note that most published sales estimates refer

to turnkey systems sales and associated revenues.

These vendors, led by Computervision, dominated the market. They were successful because their customers lacked the technical

sophistication to assemble their own systems

(but knew when a turnkey system would work

for them), and because their typical reliance

on external sources for hardware and other inputs allowed them to incorporate new technology relatively quickly. Accordingly, in addition to system vendors, the CAD industry

grew to include groups of hardware and software producers serving both turnkey firms

and users directly.

During the mid-tolate 1970’s, the Japanese

and European markets (especially those in

England, France, Sweden, and Norway) grew

rapidly, and markets in less developed countries began to emerge (primarily for mapping

applications). U.S. firms dominated the CAD

market, both within the United States and

abroad, largely because of their perceived software and systems engineering strengths.

Recent and Contemporary

The size of the worldwide CAD market is

currently about $1.6 billion in annual sales.G

Five U.S. vendors account for about 80 percent

of the market,7 although many firms have

entered the CAD market recently and others

may soon enter. In total, there are perhaps 100

vendors today. Table 56 shows recent market

development as a function of application.

Table 57 shows recent market share estimates.

The current CAD market contains segments

distinguished by type of computerization:

mainframe, minicomputer, and microcomputer/workstation. From this perspective, mainframe-based systems are the most sophisticated, microcomputer-based systems the least.

The market can also be segmented by discipline of application, although there is substantial overlap among disciplines: mechanical

(e.g., design of components for future fabrication); electronics (e.g. wiring, printed circuitboard design, integrated circuit design); and

. —

‘Thomas Kurlak, “CAD/CAM: Review and Outlook, ” Merrill Lynch Capital Markets, October 1982.

‘Ibid.
Ch. 7.—Programmable Automation Industries . 273 — . — —

Table 56.—Estimated Worldwide CAD Market (Turnkey) by Application

(dollars in millions)

Percent Percen t Percent Est. Percent Est. Percent

1980 growth 1981 growth 1982 growth 1983 growth 1984 growth — —

Mechanical . . . ... ., $235 +84

Electronic ., ., . . . . . . . ., 177 +81

Architecture and engineering ., 87 +50

Mapping ., . . ... . . . . ., 13 + 128

Other ... ., ., ., ., ., ., ., . . 20 +11

Total ... ... ., . . 592 +77

SOURCE Thomas P Kurlak Merrill Lynch Capital Markets

$380

235

138

111

30

894

AEC (e.g., piping, architectural drafting). Mechanical applications, especially those using

3-D modeling, tend to be more complex than

the others. The so-called high end of the market involves larger computers and more sophisticated software, sold as systems costing

several hundreds of thousands of dollars. Software alone may amount to anywhere between

25 to 50 percent of system cost. The low end

is comprised of workstations and simpler software packages. These systems are available

for under $100,000, and some (based on Apples and other small computers) cost as little

as $10,000 (or less).8 One commercial study has

estimated that sales of CAD systems costing

under $100,000 will grow from the 5 percent

share of total CAD sales reached in 1981 (580

systems valued at $36 million) to 20 percent

by 1986 (10,600 systems valued at $544

million). 9

Two changes in computing hardware have

had a big impact on the CAD industry. First,

in the late 1970’s, the introduction of 32-bit

minicomputers (with virtual-memory operating systems), offering improvement over the

16-bit standard, changed the competitive ranking within the industry and broadened the

market. The first firm to offer 32-bit CAD systems, Intergraph, increased its market share

significantly. More importantly, the increase

in computing power made minicomputers competitive with mainframes across a variety of

CAD applications, such as simulation and

‘For example, the CAD-1 package for use with Apple Computers, designed for architects and engineers, is available for

about $ 1.000, (Bob Schwabach, ‘‘Computer paints a pretty picture, ’ St. Paul Dispatch, Nov’. 16, 1953. )

‘Eric Teicholz and Peggy Kilburn, “Low-Cost CADD at

Work, ” Datamation, Jan. 1983.

+62 $ 460 +21 $ 552 +20 $ 825 + 49

+33 310 +32 430 +39 645 +50

+59 210 +52 335 +60 485 +45

+52 154 +39 190 +23 240 +26

+50 73 +43 93 +27 140 +51

+51 $1,207 +35 $1,600 +33 $2,335 +46

solid modeling. This development opened the

market to customers who could not have purchased mainframe-based systems.

Second, the introduction of low-cost, microcomputer-based CAD systems in 1981 also

broadened the CAD market. While these CAD

systems—generally stand-alone workstation

units—are less powerful than systems with

larger computers, they make basic CAD available to a larger group of customers, including

small manufacturers and, particularly, AEC

firms. Microcomputer-based systems have

thus enlarged the portion of the CAD market

serving nonmanufacturing firms, potentially

increasing the overlap between CAD and other

computer and computer-graphics applications.

One study has predicted that the installed

base of microcomputers and workstations for

scientific and engineering applications will

grow from under 9,000 units in 1983 to more

than 275,000 in the next 10 years. ’” Others anticipate even higher growth rates.

Although hardware is the largest cost element for CAD systems, current competition

in the CAD market centers on software. This

is because software determines what a system

can do, while hardware largely determines how

fast a task can be done. Moreover, because

CAD system vendors deliver up to 500 to 600

systems a year, it tends to be uneconomical

for them to produce their own hardware.* In-

‘

0% “CA’~ Terminals in Demand, ” Corrqmterworki, May 23,

1983. Another important hardware development is the growing use of raster display terminals.

*Computervision has been an exception; it has produced its

own CPU—although it has recently decided to buy and resell

large IBM computers–and it also markets Sun Microsystems

workstations. See: Ed Scarnell, “ 113M CAD CALI Thrust

Linked to Remarketers, ” Computerworid, Aug. 22, 1983.
274 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— ———

Table 57.—Estimated Turnkey CAD Market Shares

1983

1980 Percent 1981 Percent 1982 Percent (est.) Percent

Cornputervision . . . . . . . . . . . $191

IBM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71

lntergraph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

Calma-G. E.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62

Applicon-SLB . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

McDonnell Douglas Auto . . . 14

Auto-trol Technology . . . . . . . 51

OtheF’. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

Totals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$592

Growth ... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

32 $271

12 145

9 91

10 100

11 84

2 35

9 48

13 120

l(x) O \o $89 4

+51 0/0

30 $ 325

16 225

10 156

11 140

9 96

4 46

5 44

13 175

1000/o $1,207

35 ”/0

27 $ 395

19 340

13 246

12 195

8 100

4 60

4 49

14 215

loOO/o $1,60 0

33 ”/0

25

;!1

15

12

6

4

3

13

100 ”/0

ac ontrol Data, prime, Digital Equipment, Data General, Sanders, Gerber Sclentlfic, etc

Note Control Data revenues estimated at $61 million for 1982, $76 million for 1983, $108 milllon for 1984 Service estimated

at 60°/0 for 1983, 40°i0 for 1984 Turnkey sales ($30 milllon for 1983) from workstations and 600 series

SOURCE Thomas Kurlak. Merrill Lynch Capital Markets

Estimated Turnkey CAD Market Shares

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 —

ComputerV IsIon Intergraph

• 1

Appllcon-SLB

1

Auto Trol Tech

Calma-G E

McDonnel l

IBM Douglas Auto ❑ Other

u — 1980 1981 1982 1983E

NOTE Control data revenues est I mated at $61 m{ I for 1982 $76 rn I I for 1983 $106 m I I I Ion for 1984 Service est I mated at bO 0,

for 1983 40, for 1984 Turnkey sales ($30 rml for 1983) from workstations and 800 ser(es

SOURCE Thornas Kurlak, Merrill Lynch Capital Markets
—

Ch. 7. —Programmable Automation Industries 275

-.

stead, they rely on a few mass-producing hardware vendors for their equipment. * CAD vendors’ contributions to the product come from

software development, systems integration,

applications engineering, and other support

activities—they produce services that accompany the goods they sell. The costs of replicating software, compared to hardware, are

negligible. The principal fixed costs born by

turnkey vendors are for R&D and for software

development, which may range from tens to

hundreds of thousands of dollars. R&D tends

to run at 10 to 12 percent of sales for major

CAD vendors; this compares with an average

of about 8 to 10 percent for major firms in the

data-processing industry.”

A variety of firms have entered the CAD

market or expanded their involvement through

merger and acquisition, product licensing, and

product innovation. Many computer vendors

(e.g., DEC, Sperry Univac, Honeywell, Harris,

Prime, Data General, Perkin-Elmer, and Hewlett-Packard) have entered the CAD market,

often by selling systems with software licensed from other firms. IBM, for example,

offers its hardware with Lockheed’s CADAM

software; it has recently moved to provide its

hardware through other software developers

acting as so-called value-added remarketer.

Large diversified companies (e.g., GE and

Schlumberger) have also entered the CAD

market, principally through the acquisition of

smaller CAD or software firms. GE, for example, bought Calma; Schlumberger bought Applicon.

In addition, independent software suppliers

have proliferated to meet special applications

needs and to meet the growth in demand associated with the spread of micro-based systerns. ** One group of specific applications

served by software firms is computer-aided en-

*The I)l@tal ~Jqulpment Corp. VAX line has been particularly popular for CAD systems.

“Personal communication Terence Carleton, analyst, Kidder,

Peabody & Co.

**The mmket resemch firm I DC estimates that annual sales

of microcomputer software overall will grow from $965 million

in 1982 to nearly $7.5 billion in 1987. Independent firms now

supply about 50 percent of that software, and their share may

grow to 57 percent by 1987. Computerworld, March 14, 1983.

gineering. In this area, MacNeal-Schwendler

Corp. and Swanson Analysis offer widely used

finite-element analysis packages (MSC/Nastran and ANSYS, respectively). Such specific applications software is typically supplied

as part of system packages, or sold directly

to users. Software for microcomputers, however, tends to be sold in higher volumes and

at lower costs, using networks of distributors

and dealers. Other participants in the broader

CAD market include producers of such related

items as documentation and microfilm generators. These items have come into demand as

CAD users developed or perceived new needs

associated with CAD. At least four technical

publishing companies, for example, started up

during the first half of 1983 alone.

A growing but hard-to-measure factor in the

CAD market is the participation of CAD users

who have developed their own systems—although their role remains small. External sale

of internally developed CAD systems allows

users to gain an additional return on their investments in software development. Historically, users who developed their own systems

did not enter the CAD market for several reasons: Their applications tend to be highly customized; it is difficult and costly to prepare

for external marketing; and users may prefer

to retain their systems to enhance their own

profitability. Lockheed, for example, found

meeting divergent market needs to be a major challenge during its first 15 years selling

CADAM. IBM is known to have developed its

own CAD software, but markets CADAM

software instead (it also markets less

sophisticated software of its own design).

Ford recently decided to market, through

Prime Computer, a 3-D wire frame design and

drafting system it developed and has used for

the past 10 years; it generalized the system from

automotive applications to design of structures, mechanical components, and systems.1’

And Chrysler plans to develop with Control

Data advanced mechanical CAD and CAM

software, which Chrysler would use for vehicle design and development and Control Data

‘

2Computerworld, June 6, 1983.
276 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

would market as part of a line of computer

goods and services.’s Other user-producers include McDonnell Douglas (Unigraphics), the

French firm Dassault (CATIA), and Northrop

(NCAD).

U.S. firms continue to dominate both U.S.

and foreign markets for CAD systems. Ninety

percent of the U.S. CAD market is served by

U.S. firms. Major CAD vendors operate overseas facilities to serve foreign markets. Intergraph, for example, has a customer support

center in the Netherlands that serves customers in Europe and the Middle East. The center carries out repair, training, and other customer support activities. U.S. CAD systems

are generally sold in Japan through Japanese

distributors.”

The international market appears to be experiencing a substantial degree of international merger, acquisition, and especially licensing activity. European firms have developed

important CAD software, but Europe lacks

significant suppliers of CAD hardware. Consequently, European software has been licensed to U.S. firms (e.g., Evans and Sutherland, Prime, Computervision) that package

CAD systems, and U.S. firms have purchased

foreign companies. For example, Evans and

Sutherland bought Shape Data (United Kingdom), and ComputerVision bought Cambridge

Interactive Systems (United Kingdom) and

Grado (West Germany). Such “cross-fertilization” is a typical means of entry into foreign

markets.

The Japanese role in the CAD market remains limited and focused on hardware. Japanese vendors tend to be computer firms,

rather than turnkey companies; they sell systems providing American software under license, although they are developing their own

software internally and through a government-sponsored consortium.

‘

g

’’ Control Data and Chrysler to Make Software, Automotive

News, Dec. 12, 1983.

140TA Automation Industries Workshop.

“Jack Thornton and Tsukasa Furukawa, “GE, Japanese Plan

Automation Venture, ” Amen-can Metal Market/Metalworking

News, Nov. 1, 1982.

Likely Change

The CAD market will remain relatively dynamic for the next several years. Industry

analysts predict that it will grow at rates

between 30 and 50 percent per year; some

forecasts for the CAE sub-market anticipate even higher rates of growth. While industry spokesmen believe that most of the Fortune 500 companies already use CAD, growth

will come from both existing and new customers. Factors such as expected improvements

in system capabilities, especially for 3-D

modeling; greater ease of use; and reductions

in costs for given capabilities will widen the

range of customers by size, industry, and application area. These trends will create new

niches and ancillary-product markets, and

they will change patterns of competition. Most

analysts expect that mechanical applications

and CAE systems will become more prominent in the CAD market, reflecting both

technological development and the expected

spending growth of manufacturers as they recover from the recent recessions. One source

expects that mechanical design will comprise

about half of CAD applications, and that CAE

will account for about 20 percent of the workstation market, by 1987. Mapping and facilities management applications are also expected to grow, serving government, utility,

and natural resource development customers.

CAE has been a major factor in the growth

of the custom microchip market.17 Expected

growth in the microchip market overall and

the custom share will spur CAE sales. In the

mechanical area, future use in forging-die design, for example, will be encouraged by an Air

Force project to develop a generic forging-die

CAD/CAE system for aerospace applications.

The project involves a consortium of firms. ’a

While the market is expected to grow rapidly, the number of vendors may stabilize or

““1987 CAD Market Estimated at $6.9 Billion, ” American

Mehd Market/Metalworking News, Dec. 5, 1983.

17 Bohdan 0, Szuprowicz, 4’Microelectronics Here Showing

Massive Growoh, ” Computerworld, Dec. 5, 1983.

‘aBruce Ve~nyi, “Shultz Steel Selected by Air Force to Develop Forging Die CAD System, ” American Metal Market/

Metalworking News, Jan. 30, 1984.
fall. Consolidation is occurring already, as

both turnkey firms and computer companies

acquire software houses and expand their offerings. Computervision, for example, recently arranged to buy the Organization for Industrial Research, a privately held CAD

software firm with strength in group technology. IBM’s growing involvement in the

CAD market, particularly at the high end but

potentially in low-cost systems, is also likely

to promote consolidation.

One trend that may affect sales is the

growth in firms offering CAD services and/or

related facilities to manufacturers, usually

small companies which cannot afford CAD on

their own or companies of any size that cannot meet extraordinary needs. These businesses resemble computer time-sharing service bureaus that provide general-purpose

computing services. Danly Machine Corp., for

example, will sell CAD services through its

CAD/Share Service Center to automotive suppliers. In particular, it will provide authorized

tool and part vendors with computerized design data to enable them to use CAD in bidding for contracts and performing design and

production work for the Buick division of GM.

It will also provide CAD training and consulting services.19

Some CAD service bureaus provide complementary manufacturing “services.” For example, Camax Systems, Inc., sells time on computers to customers designing prototype tools,

which it will also manufacture for them.20 NCR

and Control Data Corp. have developed an

electronic CAD design center that allows integrated circuit makers and systems houses

to design at engineering workstations, have

access to a supercomputer, use semicustom

circuit “cells,” check circuit performance, and

arrange for chip fabrication.1

As the installed base of CAD systems

grows, the role of vendor services (e.g., soft-

“

4

’ Danly Sets Up CAD/CAM Office for Auto Industry, ”

American - Metal M-arket/Metalworking News, Nov. 7, 1983,

‘“’’Firm Sells CAD/CAM Computer Time to Clients, ” American Metal Market, ’Metalworking News, Sept. 26, 1983.

“See CAE, November–December 1983.

Ch. 7.—Programmable Automation Incfustries ● 277

ware updates, related training) will grow. This

growth will reflect in part the growth in sales

to smaller firms, which traditionally buy a variety of services they cannot afford to perform

themselves. Already (although in part because

the recession damped new system sales) Computervision has seen its share of revenues from

services to existing customers rise significantly in the last few years.22 Also, CAD vendors contacted by OTA appear to be increasing their efforts in the area of training,

corresponding in part to growth or change in

software offerings. The growing role of services parallels the experience in the computer

industry, where service activities and their

proportional contribution to revenues increased with the spread of computer systems.

The extent to which CAD vendors will address the broader problems of computer-based

integration of manufacturing is a key uncertainty for the future of the industry. Compared

to other types of firms, especially industrial

machinery vendors, CAD vendors may be especially well-positioned to link CAD to CAM.

The design-to-production chain begins with

CAD, and CAD firms are already developing

systems for modeling production activities

and communicating production instructions to

other equipment. Computervision, for example, offers systems that program NC machine

tools, robots, and coordinate-measuring machines; design and model manufacturing cells;

design tooling, molds, and dies; and perform

computer-aided process planning. It offers

multifunction systems, such as a system for

plant design, engineering, construction, and

management. Prime Computer will market a

British computer-aided process planing system which can be integrated with CAD; while

McAuto purchased Insight Technology, which

developed a CAD system terminal that can be

linked to NC machine tools.

As the above examples suggest, many vendors are broadening their lines through acquisitions. Also, some vendors are developing

‘*Jack Thornton, “Turnkey CAD/CAM Producers Confront

a Difficult Year, “Amen”can MetaJ Market/Metalworh”ng News,

Jan. 3, 1983.
278 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

their own software to facilitate CAD and CAM

links. McAuto, for example, is developing expert systems for evaluating robot system configurations. 2s

Some vendors (e.g., Apollo) are moving away

from dedicated CAD terminals in favor of general-purpose engineering/professional workstations. These workstations would accommodate

not only drafting and design, but also research, software development, and “office

automation” functions; they would thus facilitate shifts in customer activities and software

preferences and lower the risk of hardware obsolescence. Multifunction workstations could

facilitate manufacturing integration, especially when combined with sophisticated data

communication systems linking engineering,

production, and general corporate databases.

An alternative approach is to market low-cost,

dedicated CAD workstations which can be

linked to mainframe computers for other functions that use a common database. Some analysts expect sales of such low-cost microcomputer workstations to grow at the expense of

minicomputer-based systems, a development

that could pose problems for turnkey vendors.24

For other CAD vendors, the term “CAD/

CAM vendor” will continue to be misleading,

since their products serve only design or drafting purposes. Because a market for basic CAD

will remain to serve small manufacturers and

nonmanufacturing customers, the division of

the market between small, “niche” firms and

low-cost CAD firms on the one hand, and

large, integrated system-oriented firms on the

other is likely to deepen. Also, firms not seeking to integrate CAD and CAM may be subsumed by the larger business graphics market,

depending on the complexity of their systems.

International competition and trade trends

for CAD will depend on how CAD products

and markets develop abroad and whether protectionist measures are invoked.* A major un-

— — 23 Lauri Griesen, “McAuto Working to Add Dynamic Parameters, Expert Systems to Robot Programming Software,

American Metal Market/Metalworh”ng News, Dec. 26, 1983.

*’Thomas Kurlak, “CAD/CAM: Follow-Up to Opinion on

Changes, ” Merrill Lynch Capital Markets, Dec. 7, 1983.

*For exmple, a Norwe@~ firm, Kongsberg, is doing verY

well in the European CAD market.

certainty is the future role of the Japanese in

the CAD market. The delayed entry of Japan

into this market makes it hard to forecast Japanese competition in CAD, although there are

now major efforts under way in Japan to develop CAD software and Japanese companies

are actively involved in producing graphics

peripherals (e.g., displays, printers, and plotters). However, the Japaneses could concentrate on gaining benefits from the use of sophisticated CAD systems in designing integrated circuits and other products, rather than

from the the sale of CAD systems.

Numerical Control and Flexible

Manufacturing Systems

History

Numerical control (NC) is the oldest of the

programmable automation technologies and

markets. DOD underwrote the development

of the technology in the 1940’s and 1950’s, and

required its use by principal aerospace contractors, thereby assuring the launch of NC production. It also fostered the adoption of APT

as the standard NC programing language,

and it continues to purchase machine tools

through prime contractors as part of the procurement process.

The NC market is a subset of the broader

machine-tool market, which contains two principal divisions: metal-cutting machine tools

(e.g., lathes, and boring, milling, and grinding machines-SIC 3541) and metal-forming

machine tools (e.g., presses, and boring, punching, shearing, and bending machines-SIC

3542). * However, the market for NC machine

tools can be treated separately from the overall machine-tool market. inasmuch as customers do not consider NC and conventional machine tools to be alternatives.** This has

been increasingly the case: As NC technology

has improved, as the cost of controls has

fallen, as computerization has improved, and

*other components of the machine tool industry include

makers of special dies, tools, jigs and fixtures (SIC 3544),

machine-tool accessories (SIC 3545), and other, not-elsewhereclassified metalworking machinery (SIC 3549).

**Note that available data do not always make clear what

pertains to NC production and what to machine tools overall.
—..

.— — — .

as applications have grown more complex and

costly, many machine tool buyers have come

to prefer NC equipment to conventional equipment. Also, customers have grown to understand how and why NC and conventional costs

differ, becoming more willing to bear the

higher initial cost of adopting NC. *

The “machine-tool industry” has historically referred to builders of machine-tool bodies.**

The high cost of developing controllers (estimated to be between $1 million and $5 million)

and the tendency for controller cost to fall with

high-volume production generally deterred

machine-tool builders from building their own

controllers. Instead, they bought controllers

from firms serving both machine-tool builders

and other groups of customers. In 1981, 22

companies made positioning-type (direct data

entry) NC controls, 16 companies made continuous path-type (computerized data entry) controls, and 23 made dial or plugboard-type controls. Shipments in 1982 exceeded $192

million; 1981 shipments exceeded $273 million.”

The machine-tool industry has had a large

number of firms, given the small sales volume

of the industry. Many of these firms are small.

The 1963 Census of Manufactures counted

1,146 companies with 1,167 establishments,

only 415 of which had 20 or more employees.

The 1977 Census of Manufactures counted

1,343 establishments, 469 with at least 20

employees. ’e More recent data indicate that

there are 1,285 companies with 1,345 establishments, twothirds of which have fewer than

20 employees. The 20 largest companies account for 55 percent of industry shipments;

the 50 largest account for 75 percent.”

* In some Cases customers retrofit or rebuild older machines

to add NC capability; this is usually cheaper than buying new

NC equipment. However, machine performance tends to be lower than that provided by new NC equipment.

**However, machinee tools are often sold by nommmufacturer

distributors.

“U.S. Department of Commerce, Report No. MA-36A.

“National Machine Tool Builders Association, 1983-84 Handbook of the Machine Tool Industry.

“Eli Lustgarten, Vice President, Paine, Webber, Mitchell,

Ilutchins. personal communication.

Ch. 7.—Programmab/e Automation Industries ● 279

Because NC hardware was relatively expensive, and because its use required access to

computers and special support personnel,

training, and maintenance, early production

and use of NC was concentrated among relatively large firms. Although some smaller aerospace subcontractors did adopt NC in the

1960’s, small firms were very slow to adopt

NC. The diffusion of NC accelerated in the late

1960’s. Between 1964 and 1968, unit shipments of (U. S.) NC machine tools virtually

doubled; although unit shipments fell briefly

in the early 1970’s, they about doubled again

in the period 1968-78, and rose over 150 percent between 1978 and 1981.28 During this period, the variety of NC equipment also grew.

Sales of NC machining centers (multifunction

machine tools made possible by NC technology and the advent of automatic tool changers)

grew by over 300 percent between 1970 and

1980. 29 Nevertheless, by 1978 only 2 percent

of machine tools in use were numerically controlled; by 1983, that proportion was 4.7 percent.30 3]

Meanwhile, growth in demand for industrial

equipment fell overall in the 1970’s compared

to the 1960’s, and the relative importance of

machine tools in particular also declined. Key

metalworking markets grew slowly or shrank

in the 1970’s due to changes in customer sales

patterns, closing of less efficient factories,

and increased offshore production. Although

booming investment by commercial aerospace

and automobile industries caused sales to

surge in the late 1970’s, the principal machine

tool buyers were the dominant firms in different metalworking industries, who could afford

major modernization efforts.32 The decline in

la~ation~ MaC~e Tool B~ders Association, 1983-84 H~dbook of the Mach”ne Tool Industry, and U.S. Department of

Commerce; latest data are incomplete, to avoid disclosure.

‘National Machine Tool Builders Association, 1983-84 Handbook of the Machine Tool Industry.

“’The 13th American Machinist Inventory of Metalworking

Equipment 1983, ” American Macfi”nist, November 1983.

“National Machine Tool Builders Association, 1983-84 Handbook of the Alachine Tool Industry.

‘2Garry J. Schinasi, “Business Fixed Investment: Recent De

velopments and Outlook, ” Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 69,

January 1983; John Duke and Horst Brand, “Cyclical Behavior

of Productivity In the Machine Tool Industry, kfonthl~’ Labor Review, November 1981.
280 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

———— — .

the machine-tool proportion of total expenditures for equipment appears to be due in part

to the increase in productivity of individual

machine tools (reflecting improvements in cutting tools and other changes as well as the implementation of NC and CNC); productivity

improvements allow customers to buy fewer

(albeit sometimes more expensive) machines

to do a given amount of work. The decline in

the machinetool proportion also reflects changes

in product design and composition that lower

the amount of machining performed. The longterm market decline exacerbates the impact

of import competition; it also makes sales to

smaller firms and other new categories of customers more important.

The development of CNC, which essentially

built computer capability into the machine

tool, made NC technology more accessible to

smaller firms. However, while the CNC market

grew during the 1970’s, major U.S. producers

Figure 28.—Machine

U.S. Machine Tool Imports

(as a percentage of U.S. machine tool consumption)

I

24 —

20 —

16 —

12 —

8 —

I I 1 I I I 1 1 1 I

1962 ’64 ’66 ’68 ’70 ’72 ’74 ’76 ’78 ’80

Year

SOURCE National Match Tool Builders Association on

tended to neglect the small-firm market. This

happened because the large-firm market was

strong during the mid to late 1970’s. Also,

small firms were considered relatively unreliable customers, particularly sensitive to

machine-tool market cycles and lacking in

technological sophistication.

During the 1970’s, the Japanese increased

their share of the U.S. NC machine-tool market. They quickly dominated the U.S. market

for small NC lathes and machining centers (see

fig. 28). The import success of the Japanese has been attributed to several factors,

including the inadequacy of domestic capacitv (which has led delivery times to rise to between 1.5 and 2 years), the Japanese strategy

of concentrating on selling a few products

to assure competitive advantage, * and favor-

*BY focusing on a few products, Japanese Producers gained

scale economies, allowing more flexibility in pricing. –

Tool Import Trends

Japanese share of the U.S.

machine tool market

12 r

11

10

9

8

7

6 1

1972 ’73 ’74 ’75 ’76 ’77 ’78 ’79 ’80 ’81 ’82

Year
——

able exchange rates, which gave the Japanese

a price advantage relative to U.S. firms. Other

factors, discussed below, include the slowness

of U.S. machine-tool firms to adopt new technology and differences in U.S. and Japanese

market characteristics (and related government policies).

The U.S. machine-tool industry has historically been slow to adopt new technology.

Because of relatively low levels of capital investment, the average age of equipment used

in the machine tool-producing industry has

been relatively high and the level of equipment

sophistication relatively low. Old equipment

appears to be a factor in the poor productivity

performance of the industry in the past (productivity growth in machine tools peaked in

1966, subsequently declined, and rose again

in the late 1970’ s).83 The machine-tool industry has tended to rely more on skilled labor

than on advanced equipment in production.

This pattern developed because of the complexity and low production volumes of machine tools; the prominence of small, smallbatch producers with limited ability to invest

in new equipment; and the high levels of financial risk in the industry. * The machine-tool

business is considered financially risky

because of its sensitivity to changes in the

business cycle and in the buying patterns of

major customer groups including DOD, other

equipment producers, and makers of consumer

durables. Prior to the recent pair of recessions,

business declined severely for the industry in

1956-58, 1969-71, and 1974-75.

Characteristics of the U.S. NC industry may

have undermined its competitiveness. Three

dimensions for comparison are interfirm communication, relative specialization, and atten33John Duke and Horst Brand, ‘iCyclical Behavior of Productivity in the Machine Tool Industry, ” Monthfy Labor Review,

November 1981.

*on the other hand, some critics of the industry—in particular, the industry leaders–charge that management became

overly interested in new technology. David Noble, for example, argues that the machine-tool industry has suffered from

“unreasonable technical enthusiasm and a shift away from the

shop floor as a repository of innovative and practical ideas

toward the laboratories . . . .“ David Noble, “An Outsider’s

View of Machine Tool Industry, ” American Metal Market

Metalworking News, Aug. 8, 1983.

Ch. 7.—Programmable Automation Industries ● 281

—

tion to small firms. According to some analysts, compared to Japanese firms, U.S.

producers of machine tools, controllers, and

semiconductors have not communicated well

with each other. To improve the match between machine tools and controls, major machinetool builders attempted to produce their

own controllers during the 1970’s; most failed

to do so successfully. In contrast, Japanese

producers of semiconductors, controllers, and

machine tools appear to have communicated

well, and they have participated in cooperative

R&D and product development efforts. Cooperative efforts and communication appear to

have been encouraged by the Japanese Government (see ch. 9). * These collaborations may

have contributed to their rapid domination of

the small machine tool market.

The different patterns of interaction among

firms in the two countries are due, in part, to

different industrial structures. In Japan, the

major producers of machine tools and controls

are highly specialized, although they are linked

as “independent” subsidiaries to producers of

related products. For example, the leading

Japanese control builder, a monopolist, is also

linked to related businesses: Fuji, a leading

electronics firm, spawned Fujitsu, a leader in

industrial controls, which in turn spun off

Fanuc, a specialist in NC controllers. Most

Japanese machine-tool companies have standardized their products to use Fanuc controls.

By contrast, in the United States, GE once

dominated the NC control market but lost its

shares to competitors such as Allen-Bradley

because it failed to keep pace with market and

technological developments. (This may have

happened because GE does not focus exclusively on the machine-tool market, or because

of bad managerial judgment, or both. ) While

the Japanese pattern of specialization may

have facilitated early production and use of

NC, its value in more complex areas-such as

XThey-have”~So ~n ci~ ti r~ent industry appedS for ~J.s

Government intervention, including the 1982 petition by

Iioudaille to deny investment tax credits to purchasers of tJapanese NC machining centers and punching machines, and the

1983 petition by the National Machine Tool Builders’ Association for restriction of machine tool imports on national security grounds.
282 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

——— —

machining cells or FMS—that draw on electronics and mechanics is less clear.

Finally, Japanese import penetration built

successfully on the unmet demands of smaller

firms for NC equipment. Japanese production

and use of smaller NC equipment was relatively well-established before exports were significant. About two thirds of NC equipment in

Japan is bought by small-and medium-sized

firms (see fig. 29). Smaller firms have historically been a focus of Japanese Government

support and interest (a legacy of the relatively

recent transition of the Japanese economy

away from an agricultural base). Unlike the

U.S. Government, the Japanese Government

focused its support for NC diffusion on commercial/civilian use, especially by small and

medium-sized firms. Also, ties between final

customers and producers appear to be stronger in Japan, another factor that may have

hastened NC diffusion in Japan. The expertise

gained by Japanese machine-tool builders in

smaller NC installations helped them to serve

the small-user niche in the U.S. market, while

the increase in production volume afforded by

sales to markets in two countries lowered

costs.

Figure 29.— Breakdown of Japanese Numerically

Controlled Machine Tool Shipments by

Size of End Users (percent)

Large corporations

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

280 /0 1

~o~

I

32 64

Al I 54 Im

51 47

47 I

47

52 33 I

56 I

38

50 48 ●

64 I 33

61 I 38

64 I 35

Others Small- and medium-sized

corporations

SOURCE Japan Machine Tool Builders Associatlon Reproduced in Machine

Tool Industry The Long Road to Recovery” by Eli Lustgarten, Paine

Webber Mitchell, Hutch Ins, Aug 8, 1983

Recent and Contemporary

The NC industry in the United States has

become more competitive as declining costs

have allowed more companies to produce

equipment for small customers. The fact that

NC machine-tool builders continue to be larger, on average, than non-NC firms is a legacy

of the past, when only large firms could bear

the expense and risk of NC production. Financially, the machine-tool industry as a whole

has been suffering. New orders peaked in 1979

at $5.62 billion, declining 75 percent to $1.5

billion in 1982 and continuing at 1982 levels

through the first half of 1983. The decline of

orders has been sharper than the previous decline in 1973-75, and the reduction in capacity

utilization has been aggravated by the fact

that capacity had expanded in response to the

late-1970’s surge in demand.34

U.S. NC producers have been selling higher

proportions of NC equipment relative to total

machine-tool volume. By 1982, NC accounted

for nearly 35 percent of total machine-tool

shipments (see fig. 30). Producers also are

broadening their product offerings to include

not only NC equipment aimed at smaller users,

but also machines for processing other materials such as plastics, as well as flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) which link individual

machine tools and materials handling equipment and are computer-controlled.

FMS, as a cornerstone of so-called horizontal integration of production, provides a vehicle for machine-tool builders to expand their

activity in selling integrated programmable

automation. These systems also help machine

tool builders serve new groups of batch-production customers whose output (10 to 50

parts per hour) is less than that required to

justify transfer lines but more than that which

single pieces of equipment can handle. Aerospace firms appear to be particularly interested in FMS.

—

“Eli Lustgarten, “Machine Tool Industry: The Long Road

to Recovery, ” status report, Paine Webber Mitchell Hutchins,

Aug. 8, 1983.
—

Ch. 7. —Programmable Automation Industries ● 283

— —

Figure 30.–Value of U.S. Shipments of Numerically

Controlled Machine Tools as a Percentage of Value of

Total U.S. Machine Tool Shipments (for machines

valued over $1,000 1972-77 and over $2,500 1978.82)

1972 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82

Yea r

Although the market for FMSS is relatively

small and existing FMSS have been largely experimental, machine-tool firms appear eager

to supply FMSS and even to underprice bids.”

The leading FMS vendor is Keamey & Trecker

(part of Cross& Trecker), which has sold about

half of the FMSS installed in the United

States. Other vendors include Cincinnati Milacron, WhiteSundstrand, Ingersoll Milling Co.,

Mazak Machinery Co. (Yarnazaki), and Giddings & Lewis Machine Tool Co.

The association with advanced technology

afforded by FMS offerings can be helpful to

producers for marketing purposes. For similar reasons, some machine-tool builders (e.g.,

Cincinnati Milacron and Textron/Bridgeport)

are beginning to sell robots. Also, U.S. firms

may emphasize “high-technology” capital

goods as a competitive strategy, telling customers that higher prices relative to the Japanese reflect a technology premium. Finally,

support for FMS development (and purchase

“AS of late 1983, Kearney and Trecker reported about $250

million worth of proposals with high likelihood of becoming

orders. “Machinery Capital Goods Industry: Flexible Manufacturing Systems, Kidder, Peabody, & Co., Inc., Sept. 30, 1983.

by aerospace firms) is provided by DOD projects promoting the design and use of integrated manufacturing systems. While FMS offers users the potential for savings in

production time, direct labor, floorspace, and

work-in-process inventory, the number of customers is low because existing systems are expensive, require extensive planning and support, and prove relatively difficult to operate

successfully (at least at first).

Trade trends, especially imports, remain a

salient feature of the contemporary NC and

overall machine-tool industries. The U.S. balance of trade in machine tools became negative

in 1977 and has steadily worsened. Japan is the

principal source of U.S. machine tool imports.

Other major import sources are West Germany,

the United Kingdom, Taiwan, Switzerland,

and Italy. The decline in domestic production

in 1983 contributed to growth in the percentage of imports relative to 1982 levels, from 28

to about 37 percent for metalcutting machine

tools and from 22 to almost 36 percent for

metal forming machine tools.36 The Japanese

share of the U.S. market for some machine-tool

products exceeds 50 percent. It is greatest for

NC lathes and machining centers, which are

the fastest growing markets in the United

States and abroad.” Because of the recession,

Japanese machine-tool exports declined significantly from their 1981 peak in 1982 and

1983.38 Various government and trade groups

are currently examining whether the Japanese

have engaged in unfair competition and debating whether the machine-tool industry in the

United States has a special claim to the public

interest for national security reasons. *

‘U.S. Department of Commerce 1984 U.S. Industrial Outlook

(Washington, D. C.: U.S. Government Printing Office) January

1984.

“see Eli Lustgarten, “Machine Tool Industry: The I,ong Road

to Recovery, ” status report, Paine Webber Mitchell Iiutchins,

Aug. 8, 1983.

3’Mark Sfiligoj, “ Imports from Japan Fall, American J?fehd

Market ‘iMe.Mworking News, Japanese Machine Tools Supplement, July 11, 1983.

*The Nation~ Academy of Sciences, the International Trade

Commission, the Department of Commerce, and Congress have

activel~’ considered machirwtool industry issues during the past

2 years.
284 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— . — —-— —— —— -

U.S. exports have also been declining, due

to worldwide recession and to longer term,

noneconomic reasons. During the late 1970’s,

changes in foreign policy curbed shipments to

Eastern Europe and the U. S. S. R., while durin the early 1980’s, the nationalization and/

or government-imposed consolidation of machine-tool industries in such countries as

France, Spain, and the United Kingdom have

effectively closed these exports markets to the

United States. *

Some companies based abroad have begun

to produce machine tools in the United States.

Mazak (a subsidiary of the Japanese firm,

Yamazaki) has established a highly automated

facility in Kentucky for producing NC lathes

and machining centers. Other firms, such as

LeBlond-Makino, Hitachi Seiki, and Scharmann Gmbh., are only assembling foreigndesigned equipment in the United States. And

some foreign firms, such as Mitsubishi Heavy

Industries and Toyoda Machine Works, have

licensed machine designs for production by

U.S. firms.

Likely Change

During the next two decades there may be

a resurgence in machine-tool demand as part

of a broader trend toward industrial modernization. Several analysts anticipate such a

trend, since about a third of machine tools in

use in the United States are at least 20 years

old.39 Indeed, recent research shows that older,

Midwestern plants are among the principal

buyers of new machining technology .40 The

Department of Commerce has forecast relatively rapid business growth for the machinetool industry during 1984, but it expects

shipments to remain below the 1982 level.41

*The French program began in December 1981 and tires to

double French machinetool production, raising it to about $995

million by 1986. One of the program’s goals is to halve the 60

percent import penetration of 1980 by the middle of the decade.

American Metal Market/Metalworking News, July 25, 1983.

‘

g

’’ The 13th American Machinist Inventory of Metalworking

Equipment 1983, ” American Machinist, November 1983.

tOJohn RW9, et &‘ ‘The AclOptiOn of New Technology in th’e

American Machinery Industry,” Occasional Paper No. 71, Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs, Syracuse University, August 1983.

“’’Commerce Department Foresees Metalworking Gains, ”

American Metal Market/Metalworh”ng News, Jan. 2, 1984.

Structurally, the overall U.S. machine-tool

industry is likely to continue to contract. This

should happen because of the persistence of

heavy financial losses during the early 1980’s,

because of the movement of the U.S. firms

away from domestic production of hardware,

and because import competition appears to

have eroded U.S. market share permanently.

Also, lack of experience in manufacturing systems and limited capability to develop software are likely to restrict entry into FMS and

related businesses. It is possible that only the

largest companies may be able to develop the

extensive software and electronics expertise

needed to succeed in the systems market.

While the machine-tool industry as a whole

contracts, the NC share of the industry will

continue to grow. This will be hastened by the

anticipated rapid decline in the cost premium

of NC relative to conventional machine tools.

It will also reflect market withdrawal of small

and medium-size firms unable to afford to

modernize their products and facilities. Increasing sophistication of NC products and increased emphasis on integrating NC equipment into manufacturing systems, both of

which entail an ongoing infusion of computer/

electronics technology, may make the future

machine-tool industry more of a “high-technology” industry than it has been, How the industry will evolve depends on several factors

which bear on the competitiveness of the industry, such as new product and market (segment) development and increased efficiency.

Major machine-tool builders have begun

modernizing their own facilities, resorting in

many cases to greater use of programmable

automation. For example, the Wickes Machine

Tool Group, Inc., has arranged to purchase a

CAD system to help it compete with larger

firms; Kearney and Trecker (Cross & Trecker)

is installing one of its own FMSS; Brown &

Sharpe Manufacturing Co. uses CAD to design new products and to translate plans for

3-D products into 2-D patterns for sheet metal

processing; and Ingersoll Milling Machine Co.

has used CAD to develop a new FMS. 42 But

“Amen”can Metal MarkeffMetalworking News, various issues.
the costs of modernizing in the context of

strong import competition and a sluggish market may lead other firms to withdraw from the

market. Machine-tool builders have also contemplated cooperative research ventures, and

several companies have recently built new research facilities. For example, Cincinnati Milacron, Inc., has completed a new research center; Ex-Cell-O has a new technology center;

Monarch Machine Tool is forming a new engineering development lab; and South Bend

Lathe is adding a new engineering group for

its research division. 4 3

Rather than improve domestic plant ancl

equipment, there is already evidence of a growing reliance by U.S. firms on foreign companies, or on their own production facilities,

abroad, for the hardware they sell. As one

machine-tool industry executive explained to

the International Trade Commission:

It is essential to distinguish between the

future prosperity of American companies

that trade in machine tools and the future

prosperity of the domestic machine tool

building industry. Cross & Trecker is committed to the business of machine tools, but

it is not committed to build in the United

States all or any specific portion of the machine tools it sells here.44

Bendix, before deciding early in 1984 to divest

its industrial automation operations, planned

to introduce new products while shifting the

production of other products (small CN C

lathes and chuckers) to Japan, where it participated in a joint venture with Murata Machinery Co. Also, it had invested in the Italian firm Comau, which could have provided it

with hardware; and it had arranged to be the

exclusive distributor of Toyoda Machine Works

NC machine tools in the United States and

Canada. Acme-Cleveland and Cross a Trecker have forged agreements with foreign firms

to supply equipment to replace or add to products already made and sold in the United

States. Another firm, Sulzer, has recently cho

“Amen”can Metal Marke&’Metalworh”ng News, June 12, 1983:

NMTBA Pet. Supp.

44 Rosanne Brooks, “Tool Builders Consider Offshore Sites, ”

Amen”can MetaJ MarketMetalworking News, July 4, 1983.

Ch. 7, —Programmable Automation Industries • 285

sen to enter the U.S. market by selling Italian equipment under license. On the other

hand, Cincinnati Milacron officials have stated

that they plan to continue to produce commodity machinery, in part because advances

in machine-tool technology make control over

the design of both hardware and controls important .

45 Yet some of their equipment may

be produced in their European facilities. Interestingly, the willingness of leading U.S.

machine-tool builders to move offshore suggests that they do not believe that PA technology alone would sufficiently lower their

own production costs.

Three principal areas of new product development that may benefit the domestic industry are products for processing nonmetal materials, products aimed at smaller users, and

manufacturing integration. Products for processing nonmetal materials include machinery

for processing plastics, especially composite

materials (used increasingly by the aerospace

industry). The growing substitution of plastics

for metals in the aircraft, motor vehicle, and

appliance industries, among others, is feeding

long-term growth in plastics machinery sales.

Cincinnati Milacron, for example, not only

makes computer-controlled plastics molding

machinery but offers robotic cells for plastics

production and equipment for producing and

inspecting items made with composites. Other

equipment may be aimed at processing ceramics, used increasingly by the auto and aerospace industries, in particular.

There are several reasons why machine-tool

firms may aim to serve smaller customers. One

is that the huge automotive and commercial

aerospace purchases of the late 1970’s are not

likely to be repeated; thus, defense spending

and small firms may become key forces in the

market. * An argument for growth in smalluser demand is increased competition among

“Bruce Vemyi, “ Machine Builders Look to New Technology

Products: Some Concede Standard Lines to Foreign Firms, ”

American Metaf Market/Metalworking News, June 13, 1983.

*Note that offset, coproduction, and other agreements are

increasing the foreign production component of U.S. civil and

military aircraft, a trend that adversely affects U.S. parts suppliers and presumably constrains U.S. machinery demand.
286 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workp/ace

smaller metalworking firms for business, a

trend indicated both by OTA case studies and

by other evidence. The benefits of NC in terms

of improved production reliability, better cost

estimation, and faster production time may &

come increasingly attractive to smaller users

facing high competition for machining work.

On the other hand, since small manufacturers

were the principal victims of the past recessions, their spending capacity is uncertain.

Other motivations include the possibility of

tighter links between prime manufacturers

and subcontractors in the automobile and aerospace industries. These links are associated

with such inventory-control strategies as the

just-in-time system, which tends to be accompanied by singlie-sourcing of supplies, and with

the spread of progr ammable automation itself,

which encourages direct computer links between manufacturers and suppliers. The National Tooling and Machining Association

(NTMA), for example, has arranged seminars between major auto producers and metalworking

suppliers to facilitate the transition to PA. The

possibility of closer links with their customers may spur metalworking and other suppliers to modernize their facilities; in effect, such

a requirement may be imposed on them.

Though smaller users offer a potential for

market expansion, the primary U.S. competitive strength continues to be in larger, more

complex systems. This is one reason why machine-tool builders may seek to procure smaller

products from foreign sources. Lodge and

Shipley, for example, has begun to market

small CNC lathes from Italy. Strength in large

systems is also a reason why major NC producers are likely to further emphasize inte-

~ati manufacturing, through supply of manufacturing cells, FMS, and other integrated

systems, and through the production of

robots. Cross & Trecker, for example, recently

formed a division to produce automated materials-handling devices. It also acquired Bendix’ operations for industrial controls, machine

tools, and robots.

Machine-tool builders may continue to expand into robot production because, among

other reasons, robots can complement machine

tools or accessories (e.g., loaders, changers)

within FMS or other settings. Also, transfer

lines and other special machine-tool products

are expected to be more flexible and capable

of producing small lots and component families economically. They will include advanced

computer control and monitoring, sensors, and

automated functions for stock delivery, gauging, loading, and removal of broken tools. 4 6

While NC producers may supply integrated

systems by making key components and s~ftware themselves, it is also possible that they

may adopt a turnkey approach, assembling

components made by a variety of companies.

As NC machine-tool builders become better

able to match machine tools with controls, and

as users seek to standardize the controls they

use, machine-tool builders may become increasingly willing and able to offer their equipment with a variety of options for controls. 4 7

Turnkey operation is also more likely if NC

firms continue to diminish their domestic production and focus more on machine-tool distribution. On the other hand, machine-tool

builders may establish links with such firms

as IBM, GE, or Westinghouse, supplyin g

hardware which those firms would package for

sale with engineering services, controls, and

software .

Control makers themselves are already involved in the integration field. Allen-Bradley,

for example, offers an “area control ” system

to integrate management and operation functions. It is working with 3M and Western Digital to develop a broadband local area network

that would allow a wide range of manufacturing devices to communicate. Both systems

would accommodate equipment from different

vendors, making integration more accessible

to users.

Regardless of how much hardware NC suppliers build themselves, their nonproduction

activities will continue to increase. This trend

— 48A1 Wrigley, “Versatile Transfer Lines, ” American Metal

Market/Metalworking News, Aug. 15, 1983. Lauri Giesen,

“Transfer Line Design is Changing Rapidly, Amen”can Metal

Market/Metalworking News, Aug. 15, 1983.

“see, for example, “Bridgeport Shows Tools, ” American

Metal Market/Metalworh”ng News, Sept. 20, 1982.
Ch. 7.—Programmable Automation Industries ● 287

is due in part to the large need for support activities associated with the design and implementation of complex systems like FMS. Such

systems require extended (2 to 5 years) planning by users, whether for retrofit or newfacility installations. NC producers have

begun to establish service units that advise

customers in the planning for and design of

automated systems. For example, several

firms, including Cincinnati Milacron and

Allen-Bradley, now have automation consulting units.

Future trade trends in the NC industry are

difficult to predict, although the status of the

U.S. market as the largest machine-tool market in the world (followed by the U. S. S. R.,

West Germany, and Japan) suggests that foreign competition will persist. Key factors bearing on U.S.-Japan competition are the prospects for protectionist action by the United

States and of voluntary export curbs initiated

by the Japanese, although the Japanese already have large inventories positioned in the

United States. More generally, other factors

affecting trade patterns include the development of foreign markets, and changes in U.S.

customer demand. For example, Ford’s shift

from turning to milling of crankshafts offers

new opportunities to foreign machine-tool

firms, which already produce for this application (unlike U.S. firms) .48 Other changes in customer products and processes may also affect

the competitive balance. Finally, competition

in NC will depend on the relative similarity of

national preferences. For example, Japanese

vendors and users appear to prefer relatively

simple FMSS, while U.S. companies appear to

prefer more sophisticated systems. ” If NC

sales, including FMS, become increasingly

oriented toward integrated systems, the traditional U.S. strength in software and systems

technologies may prove to be an enduring

advantage.

“Jack Thornton, “Ford Engine Plant to Mill Rather Than

Turn Cranks, ” American Metal Market’ Metalworking News,

Sept. 20, 1982.

4’” In FMS, Simplicity Governs, ” American Metal Marketworking ,Vews, Japanese Machine Tool Supplement, July 11,

1983,

Robots

History

The role of entrepreneurs, and the absence

of a major government role, distinguish the

early development of the robotics industry

from that of other PA technologies. After Unimation installed the first commercial robot in

1961 in the auto industry, sales were negligible for about a decade. With a virtual monopoly, Unimation had sold only 200 robots by

1970.50 One other firm, Versatran (now part

of Prab Robots), also sold a few robots during that first decade. Several other firms investigated robotics technology during the

1960’s without entering the market.

By the mid-1970’s, robot sales in the United

States had risen to about $15 million. Cincinnati Milacron and DeVilbiss (machine-tool

builders), Autoplace (Copperweld Robotics,

until sold in early 1984), Prab Conveyors (a

materials handling equipment maker, which

bought out Versatran and became Prab Robots), and Swedish-owned ASEA had become

significant vendors, although Unimation remained the leader. Cincinnati Milacron and

ASEA developed their own robots, but they

also licensed technology from Unimation,5

’

while DeVilbiss sold robots licensed from

Trallffa (of Norway). The automobile industry

was the principal customer, buying robots for

applications such as spot welding and spray

painting. Figure 31 shows market growth

trends.

Major investment programs by automobile

manufacturers led the growth in demand for

robots in the late 1970’s. Although the auto

industry was already heavily automated, volatile consumer demand and variable production runs created a growing problem of premature obsolescence of plant and equipment.

These factors, plus foreign competition, generated pressure to reduce costs as well as increase flexibility and quality in production.

‘“’’Tackling the Prejudice Against Robots, ’’Business Week,

Apr. 26, 1976.

5’” Robot Makers Still Waiting for Promised Big Markets,

~~lectronic Business, October 1980.
288 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

. — . — —

Figure 31.— Robot Market Trends

The phases of the robot industry

155M

4

90M

45M

15M

1961 Mid-1970’s 1979 1982

Changes in market share composition, 1980-83

1980

(

from six

companies Other

50/0

1982

Market share: startup companies only; 1980-83

2 0 %

0 

150%

100%

50/0

00/0

1980 1981 1982 1983

Advanced Robotics Corp

American Robot Corp.

Automatlx Inc.

Control Automation

Intelledex

Machine Intelligence Corp

Nova Robotics

U.S. Robots

1981

from six

companies

\

Other

60%

1983

‘ U rllnlallon C Inc inrlatl Milacron DeVIlb Iss Asea I nc

Copperweld Robotcs

SOU RC F Pr.I d!nt II t3.{L hi> St>I. ~1 rt IM>5 I rlc

Prab Robots I nc
— ——-.

—

Ch. 7. —Programmable Automation Industries ● 289

Substitution for less flexible equipment, and

the reduction of labor costs, were both major

motivations for automotive use of robots. By

late 1980, 1,400, or nearly half of the 3,200

robots Unimation had installed, were for spotwelding applications.62

The potential market for robots in the

aerospace and electronics industries was also

explored during the 1970’s. The aerospace industry, unlike the automobile industry, contained relatively few obvious applications, because aircraft are very high-precision products

produced in small batches; early robots tended

to be insufficiently precise and relatively expensive to adapt for each use. During the mid

to late 1970’s, DOD programs (e.g., ICAM)

aimed at improving defense procurement motivated the evaluation, perfection, and adoption

of robots by large aerospace firms working in

conjunction with government and university

researchers (see ch. 8). Although DOD technology-diffusion programs also evaluated the

use of robots for electronics applications, the

electronics industry was largely responsible

for developing its own early applications.

Firms such as Texas Instruments and IBM

developed robots and applications in such

broad areas as materials handling and simple

assembly.

Foreign firms have participated in robot

markets since the 1960’s. The Japanese industry grew bigger and at a faster rate than the

U.S. industry.* This happened in part because

the Japanese Government encouraged robot

use by small and medium-sized firms, through

such measures as a robot leasing program (see

ch. 9). The typically close links between major Japanese manufacturers and their suppliers also served to promote growth in smaller

firm use of robots. In 1968, Kawasaki licensed

robot technology from Unimation, becoming

the first and leading Japanese producer. Jap-

“Ibid.

*,Japanese robot production (not necessarily restricted to U.S.

robot definition) grew from 200 units ($1.6 million) in 1968

to 8,600 units ($8.7 million) in 1977 and 19,387 units ($314 million) in 1980. “Japanese Production Runs Limit Robotic Investments, ‘Aviation Week and Space Technology, Aug. 2,

1982.

anese vendors proliferated, as companies that

had earlier built robots for their own use (e.g.,

Pentel, Seiko) entered the external domestic

market. Across a relatively broad range of

industries and firm sizes, Japanese firms

adopted robots and other forms of automation

relatively quickly because of a shortage of

skilled, entry-level labor in Japanese manufacturing industries, particularly those industries in which production work was considered

onerous.

During and since the 1970’s, other major

producers of robots have appeared in various

European countries. Trallfa of Norway is a major producer of spraying robots; its technology is licensed to DeVilbiss. ASEA of Sweden

is a major producer of arc-welding robots; it

has a U.S. subsidiary and operates in several

other countries. Vendors based in France,

Italy, West Germany, the United Kingdom,

and other European countries, where indigenous industries tended to develop around the

local auto industries, also began to sell robots

in the United States.

Recent/Contemporary

The robot market has reportedly grown to

exceed $200 million in sales in the United

States, and perhaps $1 billion worldwide.* The

robot business, however, remains unprofitable—the growth of sales has been described

by Laura Conigliaro, a financial analyst of the

robot industry, as “profitless prosperity. ” One

industry participant recently compared the

estimated $200 million in 1982 sales with

about $500 million in costs.53 The ITC con-

-.

*Industry analysts estimate that 1982 sales were $200 Million, while 1983 sales are believed to approach $240 Million.

The International Trade Commission estimated that 1982 U.S.

sales by domestic firms alone were under $140 million. Note

that it is hard to measure sales and profits because most vendors are privately held or are small parts of large companies

that do not break out sales data. Therefore, industry analysts

generally seek to count units sold and estimate sales based on

average price. Average price, however, will vary depending on

customer preferences for accessories and other items accompanying the sale of the basic manipulator.

5’Laura Conigliaro and Christine Chien, “Computer Integrated Manufacturing, ” report of the April 1983 PrudentialBache Securities Symposium on Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, Prudential-Bache Securities, Aug. 2, 1983.
290• Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

eluded from its industry survey that robot

vendors lost money through the 1979-83 period. 54 There are several reasons for this situation, which stems from the immaturity of the

market. Vendors are trying to position themselves in a nascent market, they often deliver

products they have yet to perfect, and users

often require extremely high levels of service

and support to make an application successful.

Consequently, high costs for marketing, applications development, support, and production of special tooling erode profits from robot sales. Table 58 lists shipment estimates

from ITC (note that since 1980, shipments

have included a significant fraction of robots

for instructional purposes).”

Among users, the auto industry continues

to dominate; other major users include aerospace, electronics, machinery, foundries, and

miscellaneous light manufacturing (see table

59). Among applications, spot welding, machine loading, spray painting, and materials

handling are most prevalent, although arc

welding, inspection, and assembly applications

are becoming more common, in part because

of a growth in sensor technology, especially

————

“’’Competitive Position of U.S. Producers of Robotics in DO

mestic and World Markets, ” U.S. International Trade Commission, Publication 1475, December 1983.

“Ibid.

vision systems, for robots. From 70 to 80 percent of robots in the auto industry are used

for welding.

Because the robot market holds the prospect

of eventual profits, U.S. robot vendors have

proliferated since 1980. While Unimation and

Cincinnati Milacron still lead the market, they

face competition from a diverse set of market

entrants, including small, innovative startup

firms and large, diversified multinationals.

There are about 100 U.S. vendors, compared

with about 250 in Japan and several dozen in

Europe. * The market includes both full-fine

firms and niche firms. The strongest competitors offer a range of products. In addition to

robot assemblers, there are other firms concenb%ee, for example: Laura Conigliaro, “Trends in the Robot

Industry (Revisited): Where are We Now?” 13th International

Symposium on Industrial Robots and Robots 7, conference pro

ceedings, Robotics International of SME, Apr. 17-21, 1983.

*A190, there are at least 30 Japanese firms that produce robots only for themselves and their shareholders. Paul Aron,

“The Robot Scene in Japan: An Update, ” Paul Aron Report

No. 26, Daiwa Securities America, Inc., Sept. 7, 1983. It is not

clear how many U.S. firms produce for their own use, although

IBM and Texas Instruments are examples of firms believed to

do so. Square D, for example, is an electrical equipment maker

that bought a young robotics firm, U.S. Robots, Inc., (which

produces “Maker” robots) to obtain robots for its own smallpart production. The ITC concluded from its industry survey

that only 69o of shipments were intracompany (captive). The

prevalence of user-producers in Japan accounts for the greater

number of special-purpose robots in Japan.

Table 58.— Robots: U.S. Producer’s Domestic Shipments, by Types, 1979-83

Type 1979 1980 1981 1982 1

-

983”

-.

Quantity (units)

Spot welder s 155 344 644 434 372

Arc welders . , 28 52 57 91 196

Coater s 0 0 26 156 153

Assemblers and material

handler s

k 

., . . 114 153 259 550 1,025

Metalworking apparatus . , 4 7 10 16 15

Loaders/unloaders . , 79 111 167 163 188

Other s

L 

. , 63 141 344 697 717

Total ., 443 808 1,507 2,107 2,666

Value (1 ,000 dollars)

Total 19.168 43.293 90,076 122,523 134,916

Unit value

Averag e $ 43,267 $ 53,580 $ 59,772 $ 58.150 $ 50,606

`‘Ddtd for ```````1983 are bdsed on ~ro)ectlons provided by U S producers

r Datd are comb ned 10 prevent 151 SC IOSU re

I nc I ud es srnal I Ins! ruc t Ion al and ed ucat I o nal de, c es

‘iDdta by Ivpes are not ava(lable

SOURCE Compiled from data subm ltted II response 10 quest lonna( res of the U S I nternatlon al Trade Cumrnl sslon
Ch. 7.—Programmable Automation Industries ● 291

Table 59.—U.S. Robot Population by Application and Industry, End of 1982

Auto Foundry —

1“

Material handlln g 1

Machine Ioadln g 2 2

Spray palntlng, fln!shln g 3

Assembl y

Machlnln g

Othe r

Tota l 2500 1250

(400 ’0) (2000)

‘About 70 80 petcent robots auto industry areused for welding

SOUCE Tech Tran Corp.

trating on ancillary products such as end-ofarm tooling, motors, and other components for

robots. Finally, not all vendors produce their

wares: probably only about 50 U.S. firms actually produce robots.” Competition is intense, and some firms have already exited the

market (e.g., Black & Decker, Kulicke & Soffa).58 Copperweld Corp. left the robot market

after recent losses on robotics systems and vision products, although it was considered the

largest U.S. maker of small robots when it entered the market in 1979 (via acquisition). Similarly, Nordson Corp. is planning to divest the

robotics division it formed in 1980.

Entry into the market has occurred through

licensing of foreign technology, mergers, and

acquisitions, as well as through new-product

development. GE, for example, entered in 1981

by licensing Italian and Japanese-designed

robots. GCA and Automatix are among the

many companies that distribute Japanese

robots under their own names, and at least one

American firm has licensed a Scottish-designed robot.59 * Cross-fertilization, through

licensing, outsourcing, joint ventures, or other

means, is a key feature of this market (see dis-

—

“see “Competitive Position of U.S. Producers of Robotics

in Domestic and World Markets, ” U.S. International Trade

Commission, Publication 1475, December 1983. b~Kficke & ~ffa had formed a new division and inveskdover

$1 million in robotics research over a 2-year period. See “Recession Even Hits Robots, ” The New York Times, Jan. 12, 1983.

“’’Cameron Gets Robot License, ” American Metal Market/Metalworking News, June 6, 1983.

*Bendix, for ex~p]e, distributed three Yaskawa robot sYstems in the Western Hemisphere under the Bendix name and

provided support and services. Wall Street Journal, Dec. 7,

1982.

Nonmetals Electrical, Heavy

light elec - equp- AeroManufacturer tronics ment space

1

-

1 1

2

2 3 3 1

2 2

1050 700 600 100

(170’0) - (110’0) (10%) (2%)

Total

2200 (35%)

1550 (250/o)

1250 (20%)

600 (1 OO/o)

200 (3%)

100 (2%)

300 (5%)

6200 (1 OOO/o)

cussion below). Several vendors even offer

robots using the same basic manipulators.60

The prevalence of cooperative efforts is not

surprising given the fact that developing a

prototype robot alone costs upwards of $1 million, while the full costs of market entry are

closer to $15 million to $20 million. The costs

of entering and operating the business are

even higher.

Several firms have been financed by venture capital, although external financing is believed to be less available now than it was just

a few years ago. Intelledex, for example, was

founded in 1981 by former Hewlett-Packard

employees using venture capital; it is developing sophisticated robots with vision for

electronics assembly. Control Automation,

founded at about the same time by former

Western Electric personnel and funded by venture capital, also aims to serve the electronics

assembly market. As these examples suggest,

several new firms draw on computer backgrounds or emphasize electronics applications;

this contrasts with the more mechanical orientation of most of the early vendors.

Robot producers supply robots as standalone devices with basic systems engineering,

as custom-turnkey systems, or as modularturnkey systems. As in other PA markets,

turnkey firms combine robotics components

made by others with controls, software, and

tooling tailored to meet the requirements of

specific applications. Robot systems are avail-

—

‘“’’ Robotics. Too Many Firms for the Market?” The Journal

of Commerce, Apr. 25, 1983.
292 ● Computerized Computerized Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

able based either narrowly on a robot or more

broadly on a manufacturing cell served by a

robot (e.g., as a machine tender/loader). Automatix, for example, was founded as a vision

company that imported Japanese manipulators and sold them with vision systems of its

own design. It recently introduced a line of

robotic assembly cells with vision systems

that can be combined into a larger assembly

system. Robot systems with vision capabilities have grown more common; 25 to 30 percent of machine vision systems sold are sold

with robots.61

Both large, diversified vendors such as IBM,

GE, and Westinghouse, and smaller ones such

as GCA and Cybotech, offer to integrate robots or robotic systems with a variety of other

types of production automation. Several vendors, such as GCA and IBM, offer to link CAD

units to robots, allowing robots to be programed and applications to be simulated

through CAD systems. The strategy of some

of these vendors is to treat robots as additional

terminals in larger, computer-based systems.

Such systems can eliminate the need for separate robot programing and related support

activities.

While the manipulator (the basic robot hardware) accounts for over half the total cost of

installing a robot (see fig. 32) the increased attention to controls, software, and service accompanying the trend toward treating robots

as part of systems is reducing the role of hardware in the robot business. As one industry

participant observed:

To me, the robot system is probably fifty

percent controls and software and another

twenty-five percent peripheral application

and tooling and staging. And only twenty-

“See Robert N. Stauffer, “Sensors: 50,000 Machine Vision

Systems Seen by 1992, ” Robotics Today, April 1983. Tech Tran

estimates that, as of early 1983, only 400 to 500 machine vision systems were in use, but up to 50,000 systems may be used

by 1993. Machine vision systems currently cost $25,000 to

$30,000 but may cost less than S1O,OOO by 1993. *The vision system market is believed to contain over 100

suppliers, Vision system sales have been estimated at $18 million to $25 million in 1982, and forecast to grow rapidly during the mid to late 1980’s.

— —

five percent of it is the basic robotic mechanism that you see.62

Thus, at the Robot 7 exposition, for example, Cincinnati Milacron demcmstrated only

three robot models and one control unit, available with different options. The hardware was

standardized, but different customer needs

could be met by varying the software.

For both simple and complex applications,

pre- and post-sale support and service are increasingly considered essential by both vendors and users. One indicator that service and

support have been inadequate is the fact that

buyers have occasionally abandoned robots,

something that has not been a problem for

CAD systems and other types of programmable automation. A lot of pre-sale support–

planning, training, facilities preparation,

etc. —is often needed, for a couple of reasons

in particular: Robots have yet to be viewed as

the only alternative for certain tasks (unlike,

say, lathes); and there are no single, correct

approaches to applying robots in given situations. Because robot technology is still developing, and because users often adopt their first

robots as a preliminary to broader process

change, post-sale support—e.g., software updates, service contracts–is also important.

While early robot vendors (e.g., Unimation,

Prab, and Cincinnati Milacron) initially focused on manipulator production, growing

competition has made service increasingly important to the business.

Some vendors have altered their pricing patterns in recognition of this situation, although

pricing strategies appear to vary too much to

permit meaningful inferences. For example,

rather than offer a $100,000 robot, a vendor

may now offer the “robot” for $30,000 and

support/service for $70,000. Indeed, some industry analysts have somewhat cynically observed that selling robots is analogous to giving away (virtually) razors and profiting from

‘21,aura Conigliaro and Christine Chien, “Computer Integrated Manufacturing, ” report of the April 1983 PrudentialBache Securities Symposium on Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, Prudential-Bache Securities, Aug. 2, 1983.
Ch. 7.—Programmable Automation Industries ● 293

— — . ————— — — — — .

Figure 32.—Typical Robot System Cost Breakdown

Robot

(56%)

Installation

(16°0)

Accessories

All robots

$160

$24

(15%)

$48

(300/0)

Installation

$130

$32

(25°0)

$130

$26

(20%)

*Accessories

(e g gripper)

$115

$18

(16%)

$33

(2700)

Silo

$26

(24%

($77)

$100

$25

(25%) $46 $46 (35%) (350/0)

$52

[400/.)

$75

$20

(20%)

$17

(220/0)

$50

(670/o)

Basic

robot

$88

(550/0)

$58

(45%)

$64

$55 (56%)

(55%0)

Welding Material Machine Spray Assembly Machining All

handling Ioading painting robots

I
294 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

the sale of razor blades: the money is in the

follow-on sales of complementary products.

Another interpretation is that vendors have

yet to offer products that users really want.

In particular, there is some evidence that users

want simpler systems.63

Large and small system-oriented vendors

have responded to perceived needs for service by enlarging their service capacity, and by

adding systems-planning consulting units. For

example, IBM has a Robotics Assembly Institute; GCA has two demonstration centers;

Prab has a systems engineering unit; and GE

has a few robot applications centers. In addition, third-party robotics consulting/service

firms have emerged. These include Productivity Systems, Inc. (Mich.); Ceeris International,

Inc. (Corm.); Franklin Institute Research Laboratories, Inc. (Pa.); Scientific Applications,

Inc. (Va.); and Automation Systems/American

Technologies (N.J.). Third-party or nonmanufacturing firms have a place in the robotics

business, as in the CAD business, because the

hardware is less important than the applications

engineering, software development, and other

aspects that combine in an application (see CIM

section below). These firms may also become

more prominent because the amount of capital available for new-start manufacturers is

shrinking, and consulting is less expensive to

launch than manufacturing.

The robot market continues to be strongly

international, although it is believed that robot imports comprise less than 10 percent of

the market.64 This compares with a 25 to 30

percent import penetration for automobiles.

According to ITC, U.S. imports of complete

robots grew in value from $3.8 million in 1979

to $15.1 million in 1982 and may have grown

to $28.9 million in 1983. Imports of robot parts

and subassemblies grew from $126,000 in 1979

to $6.7 million in 1982 and may have grown

to $15.2 million in 1983. According to Paul

— —--———

63See, for example: Frank Cogan, “Some Robots Being Simplified to Attract Users, ” Amen-can Metal Market/Metalworking News, Sept. 13, 1982.

84 Laura Conigliaro and Christine Chien, “Computer Integrated Manufacturing, ” report of the April 1983 PrudentialBache Securities Symposium on Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, Prudential-Bache Securities, Aug. 2, 1983.

Aron of Daiwa Securities America, Inc., 425

units valued at about $11.4 million were imported in 1982, of which 59 percent came from

Japan, compared with a total of $195 million

in domestic production. 65

Japan has been the principal source of robot

imports; Sweden and Norway follow, together

accounting for less than half of the value of

Japanese imports. Sweden follows Japan and

the United States as the third largest robot

producer. Its principal robot manufacturer,

ASEA, is a leading, maker of industrial machinery. ASEA produces about half of Sweden’s robot output. The remaining portion of

imports (about 20 percent by value, 9 percent

by volume) comes from West Germany, Italy,

and the United Kingdom. These countries primarily supply robots to the United States

through resale agreements. Five firms produce

most of West Germany’s robot output. The

two leading German firms are Volkswagen

Werk and Kuka.” Several foreign firms serve

the U.S. market by specializing in niches (e.g.,

ASEA, Yaskawa, and Hitachi in arc weMing),

and most others serve the low end of the

market.

U.S. robot makers also export, principally

to European countries. ITC estimates that

U.S. robot exports grew from $8.9 million in

1979 to $20.3 million in 1982 and may have

grown to $33.7 million in 1983, accounting for

20 percent of the shipments.G7

A principal difference between foreign and

domestic firms, until recently, has been the

prevalence of user-producers among foreign

firms. The greater experience of foreign firms

(particularly Japanese firms) with robotic applications has been an important selling point.

Also, the larger market in Japan helps to lower

the cost of Japanese robots exported to the

United States. And “the Japanese also are

“Paul Aron, “The Robot Scene in Japan: An Update, ” Paul

Aron Report No. 26, Daiwa Securities America, Inc., Sept. 7,

1983.

“’’Competitive Position of U.S. Producers of Robotics in

Domestic and World Markets, ” U.S. International Trade Commission, Publication 1475, December 1983.

“’’Competitive Position of U.S. Producers of Robotics in Domestic and World Markets, ” U.S. Intemat]onal Trade Commission, Publication 1475, December 1983.
willing to make use of less sophisticated robots

rather than wait for the most perfect design.

. . . In Japan, the stress is constantly on the

application. "68

The international dimensions of the robot

industry are complicated by the prevalence of

captive imports, licensing (often involving

the manufacture abroad of key hardware), and

joint ventures. Licensing is a particularly attractive vehicle for foreign firms wishing to

enter a remote market because it eliminates

the need for setting up a new distribution system; it appeals to the licensee, on the other

hand, as a quick and easy means of entering

a new market. R&D needs are lower, as are

production costs. Many U.S. vendors, from

large, diversified firms (e.g., IBM, GE) to

smaller, innovative firms (e.g., GCA, Automatic), license manipulators, especially from

Japan* (see table 60). As Phillipe Villers, President of Automatix, recently noted:

‘“Paul Aron, “How to Play Catchup in Robotics, ” 131ectronics, June 16, 1983.

*other countrie9 also supply robot hardware. For example,

Steelweld Robotic Systems (United Technologies) sells robot

systems using Niko robots made in West Germany and accessories and peripheral equipment made in the United States.

Automotive News, Sept. 26, 1983.

Ch. 7. —Programable Automation

.- —

Industries ● 2 9 5

If you are going to produce something in

much lower volumes than a competitor, then

you had better be able to command a premium for some innovative aspects . . . Now, in

robotic arms as distinguished from the robot

as a whole, that is a relatively mature art, and

the opportunity for commanding a tremendous premium for a bettter arm is somewhat

limited. At the present time, the leading Japanese manufacturers are producing arms in

the thousands per year in a number of cases.

For manufacturers here to compete in arms

while producing ten times less of that device,

the laws of economics says that you can’t

produce it as cheaply . . . In the controls area

it’s not the same.69

Finally, there are a growing number of international joint ventures, although these remain

less common than licensing agreements. For

example, Renault of France and Ransburg of

the United States formed Cybotech in the late

1970’s. A new joint venture, GMF Robotics,

paired a major Japanese producer, Fanuc Ltd.,

with a major U.S. user, GM. Although its

8sLaura cofigli~o and Christine Chien, ‘‘Computer Integrated Manufacturing, ” report of the April 1983 PrudentialBache Securities Symposium on Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, Prudential-Bache Securities, Aug. 2, 1983.

Table 60.—Some Agreements Existing Between U.S. and Foreign Robotics Producers

From Type of agreement

.

To —

DEA (Italy) . . . . . . . . . . . . License and marketing

Volkswagen (West Germany) License and marketing

Hitachi Ltd. (Japan) . . . . . . . License and marketing

Fujitsu Fanuc (Japan)a . . . . . . Joint venture

Unimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . License

Unimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . License

Prab Robots, Inc. . . ... ... Manufacturing

Prab Robots, Inc. ., ... ... Manufacturing

Prab Robots, Inc. . . . . . Manufacturing

Trallfa (Norway) . . . . . . License

Renault (France)a . . . . . . . . . . .Joint venture

Yaskawa Electric (Japan). . . . . Marketing

Yaskawa Electric (Japan)a . . . Technology exchange

Sankyo Seiki (Japan) . . . . Purchase

Komatsu (Japan) . . . . . . . . . . License and marketing

Mitsubishi Electric (Japan) . . . License and marketing

Olivetti (Italy) . . . . . . . . . . License and marketing

Basfer (Italy) . . . ... . . . . . . License and marketing

Dalnlchi Kiko (Japan) . . . . . . . . Marketing

Hitachi Ltd. (Japan) . . ... Marketing

Nachi Fujikoshi (Japan) License

Nimak (West Germany) . . . . . License

ASEA (Sweden) ... . . .Subsidiary

Cincinnati Milacron . . . . . Manufacturing —

alnformatton and technology flow in both dfrectlons

General Electric Co,

General Electric Co.

General Electric Co.

General Motors Corp.

Kawasaki Heavy Industries (Japan)

Nokia (Finalnd)

Fabrique Nationale (Belgium)

Murata Machinery (Japan)

Canadian English Co. (Canada)

DeVilbiss Co.

Ransburg

Hobart Brothers

Machine Intelligence Corp.

IBM

Westinghouse Electric

Westinghouse Electric

Westinghouse Electric

Nordson

GCA

Automatix

Advanced Robotics Corp.

United Technologies

ASEA, Inc.

Dainichi Kiko (Japan) — —

SOURCE Compiled from various sources by the staff of the U S International Trade Commisson

- 84 - 20 : , 3
● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the workplace

.——.——.———. .————.— —

management claims to aim for no more than

50 percent of sales for automotive application,

GMF appears to be gaining a major share of

GM’s robot business. GM’s new Buick complex in Flint, Mich., for example, will include

103 robots—all from GMF.70

International joint ventures are also a factor in foreign markets. For example, Cincinnati Milacron and Utsumi Machinery Co. (Japan) will produce robots in Japan this year for

sale in Asia and Australia. Cincinnati Milacron’s Japanese subsidiary will assemble the

robots from manipulators made by Utsumi

and Cincinnati Milacron controllers made in

the United States. Cincinnati Milacron claims

that building the manipulators in Japan will

cost about 20 percent less than building them

in the United States.7

1 Lower production costs

reflect, in part, the exchange rate, as well as

higher production volumes in Japan.

Likely Change

Estimates of the 1990 U.S. robot population

generally range from 50,000 to 150,000, or a

6- to 18-fold increase relative to today. Sales

forecasts for 1990 typically range from $1 billion to $2 billion. Clearly, changes of these

magnitudes are uncertain; they depend, in particular, on a strong economy. A “shakeout”

in the robot industry, with the number of vendors falling at the same time sales are growing, is widely anticipated within the industry

and among analysts. Because the nature of

production costs, the rate of technology

change, and the growth of the market are all

uncertain, there is controversy as to the prospects of new v. old firms, or large v. small

firms (see table 61). During a recent forum for

industry participants, the problem was underscored when representatives of several small

robot manufacturers expressed their desire to

be the “IBM of robotics. ” Because both large

and small firms have strengths, and because

the market is expected to broaden, it is likely

—

‘“Stuart Brown, “Accurate Fixturing Not Required for Visionequipped Robot System, ” American Metal Market/Metalworking News, Nov. 7, 1983.

“’’Cincinnati Milacron Plans to Have Robots Made in Japan

in 1984, ” The Wall Street Journal, Sept. 12, 1983.

that the industry will support both large,

“supermarket” suppliers of automation and

smaller firms oriented toward robot niches.

Moreover, large diversified firms—especially

those supplying a variety of types of programmable automation—may persist in the robot

market even without earning profits there

because (as with FMS) identification with the

robot industry has strategic value.

Growth in applications will be a key to

broadening the market. The rate at which robot use spreads to nonmetalworking industries will depend on many factors, including

broad-based changes in manufacturing processes and standardization of equipment, languages, and interfaces (which may occur informally through the emergence of dominant

products and vendors). Both growth in applications and reductions in cost should expand

the market among small firms, in particular;

at present, single-robot purchases are usually

hard to justify on financial grounds.72 Materials handling, assembly, and inspection applications, which can be found in virtually all manufacturing industries, will grow during this

decade, in part because of advances in sensing and adaptive control (see ch. 3).

Robots are already considered feasible for

materials handling in applications ranging

from textile processing and apparel manufacture to personal-care product packaging, pharmaceuticals, and cigarette packaging. GCA,

for example, is providing robots for materials

handling in the printing and paper packaging

industry. Assembly applications are becoming more common and diverse, especially in

the electronics industry, with applications

ranging from wire-harness assembly to insertion of components into circuit boards. Substantial markets for robots may also grow

during the 1990’s in nonmanufacturing applications, from battlefield missions to disposal

of hazardous wastes to health-care services

and food processing. Forestry, fishery, mining,

agricultural, and oceanographic applications

are also under development.

—.

“Steven M. Miller, “Potential Impacts of Robotics on Manufacturing Cost within Metalworking Industries, Doctoral

Dissertation, Carnegie-Mellon University, 1983.
—

Ch. 7. —Prograrnmable Automation Industries ● 297

— —.— — —

Table 61 .—Prospects of Different Classes of Robot Vendors

Startups

Strengths:

●

●

●

●

Few if any perceived or real dissatisfactions among

end-users.

Ability to attract and hire some of the most aggressive and

smart individuals in robotics and related industries.

Small size allows rapid shifts in strategies if necessary.

(This was particularly important during the recession when

certain kinds of orders became scarce.)

Technological advances WiII probably come from smaller

companies.

Small starting base means that each order, regardless of

size, is important. Thus, the best of these companies would

tend to offer more support for a given size order.

The best of these companies have attracted Important venture capitalists, gaining impressive support and financial

backing,

Weaknesses:

●

●

●

●

Little name recognition for some of them.

Far more competitive environment in robotics than is

generally ideal for startups -i.e., little room for error or for

learning from mistakes.

Cannot afford to be consistently agresslve in pricing.

Need some early successes in order to retain venture

capitalists. Otherwise cash flow insufficiency can become

a fatal disease.

.

Large company entrants:

Strengths:

● Name recognition.

● Major financial strength,

● In many instances, applications of robots and other flexi bile automation technologies i n their own factories is a

marketing plus.

. Already offer a large variety of products other than robots

for different aspects of factory automation.

Weaknesses:

●

●

●

●

Powerful financial strength for the corporation as a whole

should not be interpreted as being equivalent to unlimited

financial resources for the robot unit. The commitment of

the company to robotics and how robotics fits into the company’s overall strategy for factory automation will vary.

(These commitments can diminish if the robot entity continues to underperform expectation s.)

The robot entity IS one tiny group within the corporate

organization. Robotics alone will make no difference to the

profitability or growth of most of these companies.

Large companies are often hampered by their own inertia.

Inability to attract or keep aggressive entrepreneurial types

for robot units, These individuals often prefer the looser

organizational structure of smaller companies, where they

can also get an equity position.

SOURCE Laura Conigliaro Trends in the Robot Industry (Revisited Where Are We Now? Proceed/rigs of the 13th Inlernational Symposium on Industrial Robots

April 1983 -

Growth in systems applications and sales

and advances in the automation of other production equipment will result in a rather small

market for stand-alone robots, at least within

metalworking industries. Moreover, these

trends may also make it easier for firms to

supply robots without manufacturing them

themselves. Whether they do or do not produce manipulators, robot manufacturers are

increasingly likely to produce their own computer controls. Also, the software side of the

market should grow with software enhancements—for sensing, diagnostics, and other

functions. The growth in systems applications

and sales, the relative importance of controls,

software, and customization, and the option

of relying at least in part on foreign sources

of low-cost hardware suggest that product differentiation and service may be more important than pricing for competition within the

robot market,

Future trade patterns in robots would appear to depend on development of technology

for new applications, prospects for continued

cooperative efforts among producers, and the

degree of emphasis placed on systems and

services. Table 62 contrasts the distribution

of robot applications in Japan and the United

States.

The greater use of robots for assembly, “intelligent robots, ” and unsophisticated units

aimed at small firms in Japan may benefit Japanese imports later in the decade. * However,

simple comparisons of numbers made and

used may be misleading. Most assembly and

intelligent robots are relatively unsophisticated at this time. Moreover, the Japanese

apparently consider U.S. assembly technology

to be superior to their own. The Japan Economic Journal notes that the IBM 7565 system robots introduced in early 1983 “seem to

be better than any factory assembly robots so

far commercially developed in Japan” because

of superior software, programing, sensors, and

computerization. 73 Meanwhile, U.S. companies

XJapane~e~irmg halerecentlJ~ expanded their efforts to reach

small manufacturers (and restaurants and schools) by offering

robots through department stores. Philadelphia Inquirer, ,Ju]y

9, 1983,

“’

i Robot Makers are Sensing Strong U.S. Competition, “Japan Economic Journal, Feb. 8, 1983.
298 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— . — ———— —.

Table 62.–installed Operating Industrial Robots by Application, Dec. 31, 1982

(U.S. Definition)

Japan United States

Breakdown Breakdown

Units in percent Units in percent

Welding a

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,052 25.2 2,453 38.9

Painting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,071 3.4 490 7.8

Assembly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,099 19.1 73 1.2

Casting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557 1,7 875 13.9

Materials handling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,797 8.1 1,300 20,6

Machine loading/unloading . . . . . . . . . . . 2,578 8.1 1,060 16.8

Others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,746 21.2 50 0.8

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31,900 —-— 100 6,301 100 ‘

a JaPan industrial Robot ASSOCiatlOrl reported separately arc welding (3,874) and spot weldlng (42W Robot Institute of AmerlCa

(U S ) did not distinguish between these two categories

NOTE These estimates are generally consistent with those of Table 59, the contrast illustrates the unreliable data problem

SOURCE: Paul Aron, ‘ The Robot Scene [n Japan: An Update,” Dafwa Securities America Inc , Sept 7, 1983

have begun to sell more robots in Japan. For

example, a young firm called American Robot

Corp. has sold electronic assembly robots in

Japan, and it will produce robots there through

a Japanese subsidiary to increase Japanese

sales (it hopes to lower costs and prices).

Access to foreign markets may become more

difficult and import competition may grow as

a result of foreign policies supporting robots

(and other forms of programmable automation) as a favored domestic product (see ch. 9).

Spurring the production and use of robots, robot associations of various sorts exist in many

countries, including Australia, Belgium, the

United Kingdom, Denmark, France, West

Germany, Italy, Japan, the United States,

Singapore, Spain, Sweden, and China. These

groups often work with policymakers on issues

relevant to robot technology development,

sales, and trade. A Swedish committee, for example, has proposed a campaign to increase

robot production and use in Sweden, and

Swedish-owned ASEA anticipates that robots

will supersede autos as the main national

product.74

France has even imported Japanese assistance to develop its robot business. In response

to French Government requests for “Japanese

cooperation in developing and introducing ro-

—

“Laura ~onigliaro and Christine Chien, “Computer integrated Manufacturing” report of the April 1983, PrudentialBache Securities Symposium on Computir-Integrati Manufacturing, Prudential-Bache Securities, Aug. 2, 1983.

bets and other high-technology products as a

step to revitalize the French economy, ” Yaskawa Electric Manufacturing Co. (Japan) and

Cie Electro-mecanique (France) have teamed

up. Yaskawa w-ill supply large robots for CEM

to market in France; it will sell small CEM

robots in Japan; and it will help CEM produce

large robots in France.75 Also, ASEA will prcduce robots in France.

If robot systems grow in popularity, licensing may be the most effective way for Japanese manufacturers to reach the U.S. market,

because most of them are primarily manipulator builders; U.S. strengths, by contrast, are

in software and systems development. However, Japanese producers are working on robot systems of their own. For example, Sumitomo Shoji (a trading company), NEC (an

electronics firm), and Dainichi Kiko (a robot

maker) are developing robot systems with vision and voice sensors for sale in 1984.76

In the long term, U.S. manufacturers may

bcxome less interested in licensing as they gain

experience in robotics, while the Japanese and

others may establish U.S. subsidiaries to better provide service and hardware packages and

to adapt to potential or actual restrictions on

imports. Hitachi, for example, has a U.S. subsidiary which recently formed several inde7“’Japan Agrees With France on Interchange of Robots, ” ~~-

pan Economic Journal, Jan. 11, 1983.

“ROY Garner, “Japanese Robot Industry Slows Down, ” 11-

nancial Times, Mar. 2, 1983.
Ch. 7.—Programmable Automation Industries ● 299

pendent sales and service centers to allow Hitachi to sell complete robot systems in the

United States and to facilitate future robot

production in the United States in the event

robot imports are restricted. Hitachi now imports the basic robot and sells it with other

equipment (e.g., welding and painting devices)

and services provided by U.S. firms.77

An emphasis on service or on integrating

robots into complex systems would argue

against a strong import presence (in the traditional sense), because close relations with

customers and retaining a local presence are

important aspects of service provision and applications planning. Emhart Corp., for example, chose to work with ASEA of America in

developing its first robot application because

of the geographic proximity of the vendor’s

facilities to its own. Also, U.S. experts believe

that U.S. firms lead in systems technology.

However, a movement toward turnkey supply

of systems is consistent with importation of

hardware and components, packaged by domestic firms. Japanese hardware, in particular, is likely to grow more attractive as compe

tition in Japan lowers prices.78 Alternatively,

foreign (and U. S.) firms may locate production

or assembly facilities in different markets.

ASEA, for example, has robot plants in Japan,

West Germany, Spain, Sweden, and the United

States.

Other PA Markets

Automated Materials Handling/

Storage/Retrieval Systems

Automated materials handling (AMH), storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS) and their

components are supplied primarily by a few

firms, which are typically suppliers of more

conventional materials handling equipment

and systems, such as conveyors and conveying equipment (SIC 3535), hoists, overhead

cranes, and monorails (SIC 3536), and industrial trucks (SIC 3537). Principal vendors in-

‘

7 Lauri Giesen, “Hitachi Offering Complete Robots in U. S,”

American Metal Market/Metalworking News, Apr. 25, 1983.

‘

a

’’ Matsushita Electric is Japan’s Top Robot Maker, ” Japan

Econom”c Journal, May 24, 1983.

elude Eaton-Kenway, Esco/Hyster, Litton,

Clark Equipment, Jervis B. Webb, and S1

Handling Systems. AMH firms have historically served customers in the mining and

wholesale/retail trade industries as well as

manufacturers, although products such as

automatic guided vehicles (“robot carts”) have

recently been developed with particular attention to manufacturing-industry applications.

AGV systems are already produced and used

in Sweden, France, Italy, and West Germany,

and British companies are also planning to enter the AGV market. The AS/RS market is

more or less distinct from other AMH markets

because the systems are more complex. They

are generally sold in packages of hardware,

software, engineering, and controls by firms

operating in turnkey fashion.

The overall materials handling industry has

contracted recently, in large part because of

declining capital investment. Although imports in the conveyor, hoist, and industrial

truck industries grew (in current dollars) by

14 to 20 percent in 1982, the ratio of imports

to new supply (imports plus domestic production) for each of these industries overall was

less than 10 percent.79 However, there is a

growing tendency for foreign sourcing of hardware in these markets, as in others. And, for

some AMH products, import competition is

strong. Makers of other PA equipment are

entering the market, and some materials

handling companies are expanding their involvement in order to have a stake in the manufacturing automation market as a whole.

Harnischfeger Corp., for example, seeks to increase its materials handling business and

shift away from its predominant business in

heavy equipment. It is hiring more engineers,

increasing AMH R&D and applications engineering, and developing new controls for AMH

systems .80

While spending for materials handling

equipment is strongly tied to business invest-

‘

gU.S. Department of Commerce, 1983 Industrial Outlook.

Note that these figures may not capture larger penetrations

for specific products.

aOLauri Giesen, “Harnischfeger Veers to Material Handling, ”

American Metal Market/Metalworking News, Jan. 16, 1984.
300 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

ment patterns in general, new interest among

manufacturing firms in automating and linking materials handling and production equipment will create new demand. Indeed, a major trade association, the Material Handling

Institute, replaced their 1984 “Automated

Material Handling and Storage System Conference” with an “Integrated Systems Conference” and formed an advisory “Advance

Technology Council. ”8’ However, since FMS

and other aspects of production integration

are still being developed and are of limited use,

highly integrated systems are not likely to

have a major influence on the materials handling market during this decade. Also, AS/RS

have tended to be practical only for very largevolume storage needs and relatively frequent

turnover of inventories, although smaller

systems are being developed.

Manufacturing Resources Planning (MRP)

and Other Management Systems

The market for MRP and other management

systems is a part of the overall market for

management software. These systems have

been sold to a wide range of firms, including

metalworking, electronics, and miscellaneous

manufacturing companies, firms which in

many cases are unlikely to buy other, production types of programmable automation. They

are sold by computer vendors, software

houses, engineering and other consulting

firms, and service bureaus. Professional

societies (e.g., the American Production and

Inventory Control Society) are important in

promoting the diffusion of such systems.

MRP systems are available primarily as

software packages for mainframes and mini-

“’’Newsletter,” Modern Materials Handling, April 9, 1984.

—

computers. Sperry Corp., for example, offers

a manufacturing control system with “modules” for bill of materials generation and inventory control, manufacturing and purchase

order control, materials requirements planning

for scheduling, and production-costing and

‘‘shop-floor control” functions.82 Several other

companies also offer such multifaceted systems. Availability of minicomputer versions,

and more recently microcomputer-based systems, has opened the market to more buyers

and sellers. Also, in many cases users develop

their own systems. Management software

ranges in price from under $1,000 for singlefunction, microcomputer packages to over

$250,000 for complex multifunction “MRP II”

packages. 83

Many vendors and consultants are hoping

to increase their sales to smaller firms. The

availability of micro-based systems in particular is expected to enlarge the small-firm market. Digital Microsystems, Inc., for example,

offers an MRP system aimed at companies

with up to $25 million in sales. The system,

offered with training, includes a local-area network, MRP software, and software for office

automation and business graphics. As this example illustrates, vendors may try to meet

customer needs with packages that simultaneously computerize a number of functions.

While the erratic production flow of small,

batch-production firms makes planning for

MRP challenging, the potential for increased

inventory control afforded by such systems

may reduce the financial volatility typical of

such firms.

—— ———

‘

z

’’ Sperry Unveils Manufacturing Control System, ” Computerworki, Dec. 12, 1983.

“’’Micro Software Brings Material Control to the Desk Top, ”

Modern Maten”als Han&”ng, Jan. 23, 1984.

Computer-Integrated Manufacturing:

Potential Market Developments

A separate “CIM market” does not exist. equipment, systems, and activities; and some

Although users of programmable automation vendors, in turn, are touting their ability to

are achieving greater integration of their implement CIM and meet diverse needs for
. — ...—— —

Ch, 7.—Programmab/e Automation Industries . 301

manufacturing integration, no one yet sells

“CIM” as a total product nor has any vendor

fully implemented CIM. Indeed, some in industry contend that users are still pioneering

the application of CIM. If needs remain highly

idiosyncratic (which is quite likely) and attempts at CIM few in number (which is possible), most CIM maybe developed by users; in

that case, a true market will not exist. Development by users is especially likely for large

firms; smaller firms may lack the resources to

develop their own systems (or to integrate pro

duction completely).

The fragmentation of PA supply among myriad firms of different types and sizes may impede development of a CIM market, especially

in the absence of standard equipment and interfaces. A spokesman for Caterpillar Tractor,

for example, has argued that a major barrier

to buying or using CIM is the absence of

standard programing languages, data formats,

communications protocols, teaching methods,

controls, and well-developed offline programing capabilities.84 This view is echoed by others

in industry.

Insofar as commercial supply does develop,

CIM maybe provided through modular or allat-once packages. Modular systems, which can

be expanded over time, could be provided by

various types of firms, from those specializing in one type of automation to those offering a full range of systems. The success of the

commercial CIM packages expected to be offered in the mid-1980’s by Hitachi and by a

Norwegian-West German joint venture may

provide a measure of the potential for a true

CIM market.

A key uncertainty for a possible CIM market is the role of large, “supermarket” suppliers of programmable automation. The advantage that may accrue to suppliers of multiple

forms of PA is hard to measure. In principle,

such an advantage may exist because of what

economists call “economies of scope ’’—savings in costs in the production of related prodS,L~U~~ cO~@Mo and Christine chiw “Computer Integrated Manufacturing, ” report of the April 1983 Prudential-

~ache Securities Symposium on Computir-Integrated Manufacturing, Prudential-Eache securities, Aug. 2, 1983.

ucts through joint R&D, marketing, component manufacturing, and accumulation of

know-how. The potential automation “supermarkets’ –GE, IBM, Westinghouse, et al.–

have each expanded their automation production capabilities within the past few years. GE,

for example-already an established manufacturer of industrial electronics (including programmable controllers and local communications networks) —acquired Calma for computer

graphics and Intersil for integrated circuits;

formed a joint venture with Structural Dynamics Research Corp. to design and sell CAE

programing; developed and licensed robots for

assembly, painting, welding, and other applications; and developed optoelectronics for machine vision. GE has also established a manufacturing automation systems engineering

unit, and expanded its research capability in

electronics, including VLSI technology. By

contrast, Westinghouse acquired Unimation

but divested other production operations (for

CNC, parts programing, and time-sharing) in

a shift toward service business and away from

manufacturing. 85

Size may not be essential for broad PA capability. GCA, for example, is a relatively

small producer of robots (and other equipment)

that has established links with Japanese and

U.S. firms to supply robotics hardware, vision

systems, and CAD units; its own efforts are

concentrated on controls technology and software development.

Regardless of size, know-how will be particularly important for a CIM market: In the

words of a GE representative, “The factory

of the future is a knowledge game, not a hardware game. ’86 Consequently, it is likely that

systems houses and engineering consulting

firms will play a major role in providing CIM.

Such firms have already played an important

role in developing markets for individual types

of programmable automation. They are a conduit for applications engineering and other

services for tailoring available equipment to

-.

‘

sBruce Vem.yi, “Westinghouse Poised to sell CNC, Parts Pro

gramming, Tirnc+hare Lines, ” Ame~”can illetal .$larket hfetalworking ,\iewrs, Aug. 8, 1983.

“Jack Norman, “Impact of Automation Downplayed, ” Milwaukee JournaI, June 14, 1983.
302 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

.— — — —.

specific needs. Also, they are sometimes better able to obtain customer confidence than are

vendors who have a stake in a given product

line. Because hardware production is not essential for CIM “supply,” some analysts believe that nonmanufacturing organizations

such as Battelle Memorial Institute, BoozAllen & Hamilton, and A. T. Kearney may become important in the CIM market.87

Since PA is commonly construed by vendors

and users alike to be an answer to manufacturing problems, companies who sell many

types of automation and can integrate them

may be assumed to have a better notion of

what constitutes the right solution to a given

production problem, especially if they use PA

themselves. Because the firms that seek to be

PA supermarkets have each accumulated substantial experience with programmable automation in their own production operations, the

know-how (and reputation) with which they enter the market might be a critical advantage.

On the other hand, a combination of consultants or service bureaus and smaller, specialized producers of PA might achieve the same

end. The viability of the latter approach depends in part on whether and when standard

components and/or interfaces become available.

Computer vendors will likely play a major

role in CIM supply, given the common element

87’’G.E. is Seeking to Dominate Robot Field, ” Minneapolis,

Finance & Commerce Dm”ly, Oct. 13, 1983.

of computerization in PA products, and because of these vendors’ own experiences in

adopting advanced automated systems. Computer vendors (and even semiconductor manufacturers) have demonstrated a growing interest in participating in PA supply generally.

IBM, for example, recently reorganized its Industrial Automation, Graphics Systems Programs, and Industry Applications system

units into a single unit to focus the management of its industrial automation business.88

Moreover, the growth of computerization

without integration-through so-called islands

of automation and through growth in computerized management systems (particularly

those aimed at nonproduction activities)-may

benefit computer vendors by providing both

a basis for future integration and a market for

interfaces and networking systems. Finally,

the overall spread of computerization in office

as well as production activities may convey

an advantage to computer vendors, who are

becoming increasingly familiar to managers of

potential customer firms. *

‘

8 Mitche11 York, “IBM Forms Units for Distribution, Industrial Systems, ” Computer Systems News, Nov. 21, 1983.

*A190, AT&T may home involved in this market. It has

planned to join with Bailey Controls (division of Babcock &

Wilcox) “in linking communications technology with process

control systems, numerically controlled machines, mainframe

computers, engineering automation systems and personal computers. “ “AT&T Unit, Bailey Set Linkup in Technology, ”

American Metal Market/Metalworb”ng News, Nov. 21, 1983.

Themes and Conclusions

OTA’S evaluation of programmable automation industries reveals several broad themes.

These are: 1) there has been a discrepancy between vendor and buyer views of needs and

capabilities; 2) systems planning and other

services are key features of PA supply, while

manufacturing itself plays a smaller role; 3)

vendors are likely to package and/or distribute hardware and software elements made by

several firms; 4) both large and small firms

have played distinctive roles in the development of PA markets; and 5) governments have

had a major influence on PA market development.

Vendors v. Users.–Despite past and predicted rapid growth rates, key barriers to further market growth have been: 1) the need for

users to learn how to adopt programmable

automation successfully; 2) vendor inability to

fully meet user needs and wants; and 3) the

immaturity of automation technology, prin-
cipally for system integration. Programmable

automation seems to require greater customer

sophistication than conventional automation

if applications are to succeed. Vendors continue to speak of the need for ‘missionary work, ”

for educating the prospective and actual buyer. The discrepancy between vendor offerings

and user needs lies behind the slow start of

automation industries; it is typical of new

technology markets. What is unusual about

these markets, however, is the growing role

of user-producers: companies are developing

proprietary equipment and systems and increasingly seeking to market them (or associated know-how) externally.

Systems and Service.–Automated equipment can be sold on a stand-alone basis, but

is increasingly sold in systems that are tailored to individual needs through control technology and software modifications. Demands

that users plan and adjust their organizations

to accord with new processes grow with the

size and complexity of the installation. Consequently, vendors undertake sophisticated

marketing efforts and provide a variety of

services to train users to plan for, operate, and

maintain their systems. Thus, PA vendors offer both services-the development of applications, systems, and support functions—and

goods; vendors are not all manufacturing

firms, per se. This trend resembles conditions

in the computer industry generally. Indeed,

there are some firms and divisions of firms

that are strictly service-oriented; they provide

PA consulting and engineering services, Overall, the proportion of manufacturing activity

in this industry is declining as the role of services grows; the absolute level of manufacturing activity may also decline due to outsourcing practices.

Cross-fertilization. –Licensing, outsourcing,

mergers and acquisitions, limited-equity investments, and joint ventures have been frequent means of entry into PA markets. These

arrangements enable firms with different

strengths to enter markets for complex products quickly. They also provide a means for

distant firms to enter remote markets. The

cross-fertilization trend for programmable auCH. 

—

tomation is symptomatic of trends affecting

the overall information-processing and electronics industries. These broad industrial categories have seen a decline in levels of vertical

integration because new products are becoming more complex, product change is accelerating, international competition is strengthening, and product development costs are rising.

Many cooperative ventures link firms from

different countries. In particular, substantial

numbers of U.S. firms license or buy Japanese

hardware and European software; Japanese

firms have licensed U.S. software recently, as

they earlier did hardware. Collaboration facilitates entry into foreign markets, especially

in the case of Japan; local firms provide remote

ones with distribution and support networks.

Cooperative ventures have thus hastened the

international diffusion of PA technology and

the growth of global markets.

The long-term implications of cross-fertilization are unclear. They depend on whether

firms can and do acquire the strengths of their

partners and therefore become new, independent competitors. Because of this possibility,

some pessimists characterize cooperative ventures as “Trojan Horses” that may harm domestic firms in the long run.

Firm Size.–Because large and small firms

offer both advantages and disadvantages in

the PA market, it is hard to predict future tendencies for industrial structure. Typically, industries grow as small, innovative firms expand or are acquired; remaining small firms

serve specialized niches. This pattern can be

seen with programmable automation, but a

larger role for small firms is also possible. This

is in part because vertical integration is relatively uncommon. Small firms may continue

to find opportunities as service bureaus or consultants. Also, the proliferation of software

packages and limited-function, low-cost equipment and systems may continue to provide a

role for small firms in PA supply.

The emergence of standards for components

andlor interfaces may also help smaller vendors, even if standards develop de facto as the

product designs of larger, dominant manufac-
304 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

——.. ———— — ——.. — —

turers. This has been the pattern in the computer industry. By contrast, large firms may

offer more experience with applications and

may be relatively well-suited to assembling

large, complex systems.

Government Role.–Governments have

played key roles in the development of U.S.

and foreign markets for PA. As described in

chapter 9, differences in government roles reflect differences in national context (labor market conditions, industrial composition, technology strengths, etc.). The U.S. Government

role has been largely limited to support for military programs aimed at meeting defense procurement needs. Other governments appear to

have provided more support for commercial

PA development and use, although the effectiveness of such support is hard to appraise.
Chapter 8

Research and Development
Contents

Page

summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...................307

Introduction. ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...................308

Funding and Performers of R&D in Programmable Automation . ........309

Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .................309

Federally Funded R&D Efforts . . . . . . ...............,.............314

Industry-Funded R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........326

Other Sources of Funding for R&D . ..............................330

International Comparisons in R&D . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .330

Tables

Table No. Page

63. Major Components of Federal Funding for R&D . . . . . . . . . .........,311

64. R&D unselected Agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...311

65. Funding for the DOD Manufacturing Technology Program . .........315

66. Summary:DOD R&D in Programmable Automation,

Fiscal Year 1984 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............318

67. Automation Research, National Bureau of Standards . ......,.......320

68. Selected NSF Programs Which Fund Automation-Related Research ..323

69. NASA Automation Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........325

70. Summary: Federal Civilian Agency R&D inProgrammable

Automation, Fisca.1 Year 1984....,.. . ...................,.......326

71. Company R&D Expenditures asa Proportion of Sales, by Industry. ..327

72. Estimated R&D Expenditures inPA Industries, 1983 . .............327

Figures

Figure No. Page

33. The National R&D Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ....309

34. National Expenditures for R&D by Source . .......................310

35. National Expenditures for Performance of R&D asa

Percent of Gross National Product by Country . ...................312

36. Estimated Ratio of Civilian R&D Expendituresto

Gross National Product for Selected Countries . . . . . . . . . . ..........312

37. The Rangeof Programmable Automation Research and Development .313

38. Patent Activity by Country Comparison . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ....331
Chapter 8

Research and Development —

Summary

A wide variety of research and development

(R&D) efforts, ranging from very basic, longterm research to market-oriented, short-term

product development, are applicable to programmable automation (PA). The principal

fields which contribute to such R&D are computer science; electrical, mechanical, industrial, and manufacturing engineering; and

metallurgy.

Both government and industry are major

funders of R&D in automation technologies.

The Federal Government budgeted approximately $80 million of work in this area in fiscal

year 1984. This work is undertaken in industry, university, and government laboratories.

The bulk of Federal funding for automation

R&D (roughly $64 million) comes from the De

partment of Defense (DOD), primarily through

its Manufacturing Technology (ManTech) Pro

gram. This work is aimed at facilitating technologies that would improve defense production. Other agencies in DOD fund work with

potential applications for both defense manufacturing and the battlefield. While DOD’s

funding of automation technology R&D has

had some benefits for civilian manufacturing,

its programs are not aimed at technological

developments that would have wide applications outside of defense neds. In addition, the

technologies developed through DOD tend to

be some of the most complex, usefd largely

in the advanced aerospace and electronics industries.

Civilian agency programs in automation

R&D are relatively small. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

funds work primarily in robotics-related tools

for use in space, much of which, like DOD’s

programs, is at the very sophisticated end of

the technology spectrum and has limited commercial spinoffs. The National Science Foundation (NSF) funds a wide range of more basic

work related to programmable automation, as

well as helping to establish centers for university-industry cooperation. The National Bureau of Standards’ (NBS) laboratory is the

Government’s primary in-house performer of

R&D for manufacturing. Their work includes

a largescale test arena for computer-inte

grated manufacturing (CIM) techniques and

interface standards, known as the Automated

Manufacturing Research Facility (AMRF).

Industry funding for R&D in this area,

though hard to gauge precisely, seems to be

healthy and escalating rapidly, especially as

the market for programmable automation de

vices becomes more competitive. The perception among technology researchers seems to

be that industry is “where the action is” for

automation R&D. Industry spending in the

machine tool, CAD, and robotics industries

alone amounted to approximately $250 million

to $400 million in 1983. There is also evidence

of a proliferation of industry-university cooperative research.

Foreign industries and cooperative industrygovernment laboratories are also pursuing

very active PA research programs. Japan,

West Germany, and Sweden-and to a lesser

extent the United Kingdom and France-have

significant research efforts in this area. The

traditional U.S. lead in development of these

technologies has been eroded, although the

United States is still a strong leader in many

technical areas. However, Japan has been

more active than either the United States or

Western Europe in application of the technologies.

307
308 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

. — —

Introduction

The aim of this chapter is to assess the context for R&D in programmable automation.

The chapter begins with general background

on R&D and its funding, and examines in detail Federal funding of R&Din programmable

automation. Industry R&D efforts are outlined, and a final section brings forth some of

the highlights in international comparisons in

R&D.*

‘‘R&D” is often used as a catch-all term for

a wide variety of activities which range from

the most esoteric science (far at the “R” end

of the range) to the most down-toearth product development efforts (pure “D”). And be

cause programmable automation draws on

such a wide variety of science and engineering fields-computer science; manufacturing,

electrical, mechanical, and industrial engineering; and metallurgy, to name just the primary

ones—it can be difficult to isolate those efforts

which should be considered relevant.

NSF offers the following definitions:

●

●

●

✎

In basic research the objective of the

sponsor is to gain fuller knowledge or

understanding of the fundamental aspects of phenomena and of observable

facts without having specific applications

toward processes or products in mind.

In applied research the objective of the

sponsor is to gain knowledge or understanding necessary for determining the

means by which a recognized and specific

need may be met.

Development is systematic use of the

knowledge or understanding gained from

research, directed toward the production

of useful materials, devices, systems, or

methods, including design and development of prototypes and processes. It ex-

*ChapMr 9 Covers foreign R&D mechanisms and institutions.

The content of foreign R&D in automation will be outlined at

the end of this chapter.

eludes quality control, routine product

testing, and production.’

Classification of individual R&D efforts into

such categories is often not completely straightforward, and involves a great deal of judgment. Moreover, this distinction has become

increasingly less clear-cut in recent decades.

Science and technology have become harder

to differentiate, and universities have more actively sought industrial funding. R&D efforts

at all three levels—those considered basic research, applied research, and development—

are important for programmable automation.

As figure 33 indicates, the Federal Government and industry are the two dominant contributors to R&D spending in the United

States. Universities, State and local governments, and other nonprofit institutions make

a small addition of their own funds. In 1983,

out of a total R&D pool of $86.5 billion, the

Federal Government spent almost $40 billion,

or 46 percent. Industry contributed $44.3 billion, or 51 percent. NSF estimates that total

R&D funding will be $97 billion for 1984. Industry overtook the Government in spending

for R&D in 1980, according to NSF data (see

fig 34). While the Federal Government’s

spending for R8zD has remained relatively constant in 1972 dollars, industry’s share grew

substantially in real dollars in the 1970’s and

early 1980’s.

Industry is also the dominant performer of

R&D, receiving 74 percent of the total of $86.5

billion in 1983. Universities received 9 percent

of those funds, and Federal agencies or R&D

centers 14 percent.

Within the Federal Government, tables 63

and 64 show that defenserelated R&D is the

single largest and fastest growing component

— . ——

I National Science Foundation, Federal Funds for Research

and Development: Fiscal Years 1981, 1982, and 1983 (Washington, D. C.: National Science Foundation, 1982), p. 1.
Ch. 8.—Research and Development ● 309

— —

Figure 33.—The Nationai R&D) Effort

Expenditures for R&D = $97 billion, 1984 (est )

20% 1 %

Federal Government Industry

11% 7400 9 %

Research

FFRDCS

Basic Applieed Development

SOURCE National Science Foundation, Preliminary figures from National Pattern of Science and Technology Resources, 1983, in press

of Federal R&D funding. Nondefense R&D

spending by the Federal Government has de

clined in real terms under the Reagan administration, primarily due to dramatic reduction

in nondefense applied research, development,

and demonstration activities. Basic research

has been relatively healthy, albeit with a few

shifts in priorities. Defense-related R&D is

estimated at $30.2 billion in 1984, accounting

for 66 percent of Federal spending for R&D.2

— .

‘W. C. Boesman, “U.S. Civilian and Defense Research and

Development Funding: Some Trends and Comparisons With

selected Industrialized Nations,” Congressional Reseamh SerVice, Report No. 83-183, Aug. 29, 1983; and American Association for the Advancement of Science, AAAS Report IX:

Research & Development, FY 1985 (Washington, D. C.: AAAS,

1984).

The United States has historically spent far

more than its allies on R&D. However, figure

35 shows that foreign expenditures for R&D

have grown faster than those in the United

States. In addition, both Japan and West Germany have exceeded the United States in nondefense R&D as a percentage of gross national

product (GNP)3 (see fig. 36).

. —

‘Ibid.

Funding and Performers of R&D

in Programmable Automation

Overview the United States, although universities and

For purposes of this study, R&D in pro- State governments have ‘made small contributions. grammable automation is work which is centrally concerned with one or more of the tech- Figure 37 is a rough map of the performers

nologies identified in table 5 in chapter 3. of R&D related to programmable automation.

Industry and the Federal Government are the The Federal Government’s interest in such

primary sources of funding for such work in work comes from several agencies, each with
310 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace — ——————— . —.— —

Figure 34.—National Expenditures for R&D by Source

Current dollars Constant 1972 dollars’]

$46 ‘ $46- f

44 i44 -

42 42

40 / -

40 –

38 “ 38 -

36 – 36 –

34

32

30

28

18

16

14

12

10

Federal

34

32

 3 0

8 -

6

./~ ’

4 Universities

and collegesc NPld

2

~

. -

0

.

---- -- “

. .

. .

. .

1960 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 8283

Year

28

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

a~N p ,Tlpllcll ~r ,Ce deflators used to convert current dollars 10 COrlStar~t 197P dollars

t)CI<lta <Ire not ~vaf[able ~rl Indus[ry resources for re~earch rl the ps} L hological and soclat sc 1~’nces

c I nc Iuctes Stats and local go~ernment sources

do[her nc)rlprofli flsf ltLItl Orls

4 Universites

2

and colleges c

” 

1960 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 8283

Year

SOURCE National Science Foundation, Sckwrce Irrdlcators– 1982 (Washington, DC.. National Science Board, 1983).
Ch. 8.—Research and Development . 311

Table 63.—Major Components of Federal Funding for R&Da (budget authority in billions)

Fiscal year 1967 Fiscal year 1972 Fiscal year 1982 Fiscal year 1983 Fiscal year 1984 Fiscal year 1985

actual actual actual actual estImate budget

Current dollars:

Defens e

b $88 $92 $229 $256 $302 $379

Non-Defense’ 8.3 79 158 144 157 164

Spac e

l

47 27 36 17 19 23

Health{ ’ 13 20 4.1 4.5 5.1 52

Energyl06 06 35 29 28 27

General sclence~05 07 15 16 19 22

All other 12 19 31 37 40 40

Total R& D $171 $171 $387 $400 $459 $543

Constant fiscal year 1972 dollars:

De fenseP

$12.4 $9.2 $9.8 $104 $11.9 $142

Non-Defense’ $117 $79 $72 $64 $66 $66

Space” 66 27 17 08 08 09

Health” 18 20 19 20 22 21

Energy’ 08 06 16 13 12 11

General sclenc e

g

07 07 07 07 08 09

All other 1.7 1.9 14 16 17 16

Total R& D $240 $171 $17.0 $16.8 $18.5 $208

alncludes conduct o! R&D and R&D facllltles

blncludes DOD and defense ac!l~ltjes In DOE

Includes all R&D In defense

‘lReflects AA AS’ est I mates for NASA less space appl cations and aeronaut Ical research

‘For fiscal years 19821985 Includes health research I n H HS, VA Educat on and EPA Fiscal year 1967 and 1972 based on OM B data for health research In al I Federal

, agencies

Includes NRC EPA energy research and DOE less defense act Iv!tles and general science

‘)1 ncludes NSF and DOE general sc!ence

SOURCE Arnerlcan Assoc latlon for the Advancement of Science, AAAS Report IX Research & Development FY 1985 ~Washl ngton DC AAAS 1984\ AAAS est [mates

based on data from OMB and agency budget )ustlflcatlons Conversion to constant FY 1972 dollars by AAAS based on OMB deflators

Table 64.—R&D in Selected Agenciesa (budget authority in millions)

Fiscal year 1985 Percent change

Fiscal year 1983 Fiscal year 1984 budget Fiscal year 1984-85 Fiscal year 1984-85

actual estimated (proposed) Current dollars constant dollars

DOD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $23,673 $27,87 6 $35,33 6 + 26.80/o + 20.90/o

DOE-defense. . . ... ... 1,975 2,286 2,522 + 10.30/0 + 5.3%

(Total defense) . . . . . . . (25,648) (30,162) (37,858) (+ 25.50/o) ( + 19.80/o)

DOE-general science . . 5 6 8 6 3 9 7 4 5 + 16.50/o + 11 .3%

DOE-energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,622 2,610 2,499 – 4.3 –8.50/o

NASA . . . . . . ... . . . . 2,735 2,971 3,466 + 16,70/o + 11 .4%

NSF . . . . . . . ... . . . . 1,059 1,247 1,427 + 14.40/0 + 9.20/o

NIH . , . . . . . . . ... . . . 3,814 4,264 4,356 + 2.2% –2.40/o

Other HHS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 5 7 6 1 3 5 9 7 – 2.70/o – 7.0 %

USDA ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 8 5 9 2 3 9 2 6 +0.40/ 0 –4.1% 

EPA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 4 2 4 8 2 8 0 + 12.70/o + 7.6 0/0

Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 111 1 0 7 –3.30/ 0 – 7.5%

NOAA . . . . . ... . . . . . 2 1 3 2 4 0 1 6 7 – 30,40/0 – 33.50/0

NBS . . ... . . . . . . ... 9 4 9 5 1 0 3 + 8.2 0/0 + 3.5 %

USGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4 9 162 1 4 8 – 8.6 % – 12.70/o

Bureau of Mines . . . . . . . . 9 7 8 7 6 9 –21.O 5 –24.50/o

All other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,26 5 1,53 3 1,55 5 + 1 .5% – 3.0 %

(Total nondefense) . . . . . (14,393) (15,743) (16,444) (+4.4% ) (–0.30/0)

Total ., ... . . . . . . . . . . . $40,042 $45,90 5 $54,30 1 + 18.30/o + 12.70/o

a lncludes conduct of R&D and R&D faclilties

SOURCE American Association for the Advancement of Science, AAAS Report IX Research & Development. FY 1985 (Washington, D C AAAS 1964), using ‘OMB

Data for Special Analysis K,” as revised, and agency budget justifications
312 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Figure 35.— National Expenditures for Performance

of R&D. as a Percent of Gross National Product by

Country

Figure 36.— Estimated Ratio of Civilian R&D

Expenditures to Gross National Product for

Selected Countries

36

3.4

32

U.S.SR. o’”“•“ o. ~“”•••

.* ● ● * ● ● ● *

.

.

.

.* 1

3.0 ‘

2.6 – Kingdom

2 4 ’

A

2.2 -

A

20 –

1,8 –

1.6 – / “

14 France

Japan

1.2

1.0

8

6

.4

.2

0

1961 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

Year

%ross expenditures for performance of R&D includlng associated capital expenditures, except for the United States where total capital expenditure data are not available. Estimates for the period 1972-80 show that their inclusion would have

an impact of less than one-tenth of 1 percent for each year.

NOTE: The latest data may be preliminary or estimated

SOURCE National Science Foundation, Sc/ence Indicators— 1982 (Washington,

DC.: National Science Board, 1983).

different approaches and goals. DOD funds

very substantial amounts of R&D in automation technology-primarily in industry labs—

both to save the Government money on its

purchases of manufactured goods, and to

develop technologies which may have applications for manufacturing or in battlefield

situations. NBS, under the auspices of the De

partment of Commerce, pursues automation

research because of the standards and measurement issues involved, and as a result of a

longstanding mandate to investigate various

aspects of computer technology. NASA looks

to automation technologies to help plan and

25

2.4

23 I

0“

West

Germany

0.9 “

08 -

0.7 -

06 -

05 -

04 -

0.3 -

02 -

01

0 I I I I I I 1 I I 1 I

1961 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83

Year

a National expeditures exculding Government funds for defense and space R&D

SOURCE’ National Science Foundation, Science Indicatetors- 1982 (Washington,

D C : National Science Board, 1983).

conduct space missions. NSF funds a broad

range of automation research, primarily at

universities, as part of its general mandate to

support work in science and engineering and

encourage technology transfer to industry.

And finally, an assortment of other agencies

are exploring robotics, primarily for nonmanufacturing applications such as maintenance in nuclear powerplants.
 .

Ch. . —Research and Development ● 313

— .-

Figure 37.—The Range of Programmable Automation Research and Development

Federal Universities Other

Draper

Labs

Department DARPA2

of &

Defense

(DOD)

\ * Teleoperators

National Aeronautics

and > Artificial

Space Administration “ intelligence

(NASA) J

Materials

science

1 IPAD4

I

National Science \

Foundation Math/Physics

(NSF) A I

Manufacturing I

National

Bureau of

Standards (NBS)

(Department of

Commerce)

MCC, SRCS

(joint ventures)

SOURCE Office of Technology Assessment
314 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

As the second column of figure 37 displays,

the major players in R&D in industry are

those who make automation technology and

those who use it, categories which have merged

to some extent (see ch. 7). In addition, cooperative interindustry research efforts play a

small, though perhaps increasing, role. As will

be discussed below, industry spending on

. automation R&D is hard to gauge accurately

because some privately held firms do not divulge the information; other, larger companies

do not disaggregate the portion of their R&D

budget spent for programmable automation.

Universities (column 3) pursue automation

research through a handful of traditional departments, and in some cases through new automation research labs and/or cooperative efforts with industry. They are still the centers

of basic research, although they are increasingly working on applied research and even de

velopment topics.

Finally, several other independent laboratories (column 4) have played key roles in automation R&D, and one association of various

industry, government, and foreign interests—

Computer Aided Manufacturing-International

(CAM-1)–funds research projects at university and industry labs, and in some cases

serves as a forum for technology transfer between companies or from universities to industry.

The remainder of this section describes in

more detail the particular programs and levels

of funding undertaken by the primary sponsors of programmable automation R&D—government and industry.

Federally Funded R&D Efforts

The Department of Defense

Manufacturing Technology.-The bulk of

DOD’s automation technology research is conducted under its Manufacturing Technology,

(ManTech) Program, which is funded at $200

million in fiscal year 1984. The Army, Navy,

and Air Force’s allocations within ManTech

have been somewhat unstable over the past

few years,* although DOD plans a substantial increase in all ManTech funding within the

next few years (see table 65). The goal of the

program is to develop and apply productivityenhancing manufacturing technologies, primarily to military contractors. ManTech also

attempts to actively transfer manufacturing

technologies to industries not necessarily involved in military work.**

Although the Pentagon has been involved

in manufacturing technology for several decades, the current ManTech program essentially began in 1960. It has helped develop and

apply several historically significant technologies, including numerically controlled machine tools and the APT language for those

tools, as well as calculators using integrated

circuits.

ManTech projects aim for a grey area be

tween applied research, development, and application. Although the program purports not

to “develop” technology, it nonetheless contributes to that process. The standards of the

program require that the projects are technically feasible, generically applicable, and have

a level of cost and risk such that private industry cannot or will not fund the work.

ManTech contracts with industry to (in its

terms) “procure” a manufacturing process

xl~ ~~~~, the by’s ManTech program suffered a Sub

stantialcut in 1983 funds when the House Appropriations Sub

committee on Defense decided that Army ManTech did not ~

long in the procurement budget, but rather in R&D. The

subcommittee cut the entire amount ($1 10 million) requested

in the procurement category, but later restored $50 million in

R&D funds. Pentagon officials argue that although ManTech

does look like R&D in some respects, it is better for the program to be administered in procure ment, where managers are

more likely to be familiar with manufacturing. As of early 1984,

the subcommittee had ~rsuaded DOD to put the bulk of

ManTech Pu.nding in WD. There is some worry that R&D funding may be more unstable, however. (Lloyd Lehn, ManTd R-o

gram Officer, The Pentagon, personal communications.) **The Gener~ AxOunt.ing Office (GAO) h~ criticized the

ManTech program for having inadequate documen tation of the

effectiveness of its tih.nolo~ transfer efforts (“Manufacturing Technology-A Cost tiuction Tool at the Department of

Defense That Needs Sharpening, ” September 1979). As the

Pentagon concedes, ManTech staff often do not know to what

extent industries pick up technologies developed under the pro

gram. GAO plans to publish an update of that report in the

spring of 1984.
. . . . .

Ch. 8. —Research and Development ● 315

— .

Table 65.—Funding for the DOD Manufacturing Technology Programa (in millions)

Fiscal year

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 (preliminary)

Army . . ... . . . . . . . 68 76 95

Navy . . . . . ... ... 14 12 29

Air Force . . . . . . . . . 56 66 86

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 154 210

aAs of January 1984

SOURCE Department of Defense

that enhances particular DOD manufacturing

applications. For example, the Air Force ManTech staff might decide that soldering of particular printed circuit boards could be automated if someone would apply existing soldering

and computer control technologies and build

an interface between the computer and soldering machines. The Air Force would request

competitive bids to do this work, and would

then establish a contract and a schedule with

a particular firm. (ManTech did, in fact, fund

the automation of a wave soldering machine

for printed circuit boards used in several weapons systems. The new process is claimed to

save $1.1 million per year; ManTech’s investment was $450,000.)4

Of $200 million in fiscal year 1984 funding

for ManTech, $56 million is concerned with

computer-aided manufacturing. Other technical areas funded by ManTech include electronics, inspection and test techniques, production

of metal and nonmetal parts, and ammunition

production. Pentagon directors of the program

estimate that the vast majority of ManTech

funds are spent for R&D in private industry–

100 percent of Air Force ManTech funds, 75

percent of Navy funds, and 50 percent of the

Army’s. Roughly 400 to 500 projects are active at a time, covering an extraordinary range

of subjects from rocket nozzle improvements

to ambitious efforts to integrate programmable automation devices.

The latter are the most relevant to this

study. The Air Force began its Integrated

Computer-Aided Manufacturing (ICAM) program in 1978. It is the largest single expendi4

L. R. Allen and L. L. Lehn, Technology Area Description

of the Manufactun”ng Technology Program, June 30, 1983 (a

Pentagon publication).

41 86 81

32 57 68

59 57 62

132 200 211

ture in ManTech, funded at $18 million in

1983. It is also one of the most prominent and

broad-based efforts in programmable automation systems R&D. ICAM has developed “architectures” for the structure and control of

automated manufacturing, and it has funded

a variety of work on the foundations of CIM.

ICAM is being phased out as a separately

budgeted line item in the Air Force ManTech

program, though the program’s directors intend to continue work in integrated manufacturing.

The Army’s ManTech program has a similar

project clearly related to programmable auto

mation: Electronics Computer-Aided Manufacturing (ECAM). It is similar in concept to

ICAM although newer and much less ambitious in scope. It aims to develop CAM techniques for electronics, specifically for the small

batch sizes of electronic devices which are

often needed in a military environment.

The Navy has been slower to pursue automated manufacturing technologies, in part be

cause of the immense product size and often

custom-production environment in shipbuilding operations. However, there has been substantial progress in recent years, particularly

in robotic welding in shipbuilding.5

The Army, Navy, and Air Force ManTech

programs are coordinated by a Manufacturing Technology Advisory Group (MTAG),

which has representatives from each of the

Services, the Pentagon, other Government

‘See, An Assessment of Mm”time Trade and Twhnology

(Washington, D. C.: U.S. Cmgress, Office of Technology Assessment, October 1983), and R. Brooks, “Navy ManTech to Focus

More on Shipbuilding, ” American Metzd Market/Metalworking News, Mar. 12, 1984.
316 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

agencies, and defense-related industries.

MTAG and its subcommittees suggest areas

for ManTech projects, help avoid duplication

of effort, and conduct conferences and demonstrations which help transfer ManTech-developed technologies to industry. In addition,

MTAG serves as an informal coordinating and

information-gathering body for automation

R&D in other Government agencies and industry. Beyond its function for DOD, it is the only

established forum in which key representatives fromn defense-related industry and Government agencies meet regularly to discuss automation R&D. As such, it facilitates some of

the informal networking and development of

consortia that occurs among Government and

industry programmable automation experts.

Approximately 200 representatives serve on

MTAG and its subcommittees, roughly 80 percent from DOD and the military services, and

10 percent each from other Government agencies and industry.

Until fiscal year 1982, DOD conducted a

program within ManTech which helped manufacturers pay for implementing new manufacturing technologies, including many of those

developed in ManTech projects. This Technology Modernization (TechMod) program-used

primarily by the Air Force—has now been relabeled the Industrial Modernization Incentives Program (IMIP), and separated from

ManTech funding. (The removal of TechMod

from ManTech was one of the reasons for the

dip in ManTech funding in fiscal year 1983,

along with disagreements described in footnote, p. 314). Some in industry have argued

that many of the technologies explored in

ManTech are rather esoteric, while those involved in the TechMod or IMIP efforts seem

to be more practical.

IMIP is used to supplement cost-reimbursable contracts—procurement agreements with

no fixed dollar amount; the firm bills DOD for

its materials and services. Such contracts are

used for most major procurements at DOD to

insulate industry from the unpredictability of

building massive weapons systems. Under

IMIP, DOD helps pay for installing new manufacturing technology because it expects to

reap the benefits downstream in lower reimbursable costs. Although all three services

have a mandate to use IMIP, the Air Force

continues to be the primary user of the program, with $83 million budgeted in 1984.0

Other DOD Programs.-Two other agencies

within DOD fund longer term, more basic research efforts related to automation technologies. The Defense Advanced Research Projects

Agency (DARPA) has a program in Intelligent

Task Automation (ITA), which funds robotics

research with both manufacturing and military (i.e., maintenance, logistics, and weapons)

uses in mind. Three major initiatives are under

way:7

●

●

DARPA and the Air Force materials lab

are jointly funding a “Systems Integration and Demonstration” project, in

which two competing teams of contractors are performing applied R&D that

may “lead to quantum jumps” in robotics

technology. One team, headed by Honeywell, is attempting to develop a coordinated dual-arm robot-i. e., not two robots

operating in sequence, as is already found

in industry, but dual arms that can work

together much like human arms. Another

team, headed by Martin Marietta, is

working on a programmable assembly robot which would make extensive use of

sensors, enabling it to cope with relatively

disordered manufacturing situations such

as bins of parts. These projects are 27-

month efforts funded at $1.6 million (total) in 1984. DARPA aims to evaluate the

research in early 1985 and to continue

more intensive work with one of the two

teams.

DARPA budgeted $1.3 million in 1984 for

work in sensory control. This includes

work on 3-dimensional vision sensing at

Carnegie-Mellon University, and ultrasonic imaging at Rockwell International. The

latter is intended primarily for nonmanufacturing military needs. For example,

‘D. Reeves, staff engineer, IMIP Program, The Pentagon, personal communication, Feb. 10, 1984.

‘W.Isler, ITA program officer, DARPA, interview, Sept. 2,

1983.
 ..

Ch. 8.—Research and Development s 317 ————— -——— -- —— -- — — —

vision systems are of little use in smoke,

fog, or darkness on a battlefield, but a

sound-based system could construct images based on the way objects reflect

sound waves. A third project in this category involves tactile sensing at Case

Western Reserve University, where researchers hope to combine conventional

touch sensors with what they call a haptic sensor, which would send feedback to

the robot controller about the state of

“elbow” and “shoulder” joints.

● Finally, $600,000 is budgeted in 1984 for

work in advanced mechanical design of robots. This primarily involves developing

lightweight, flexible structures (most like

ly from composite fiber materials), as well

as control systems and sensors which

would allow controllers to direct the motion of such arms without backlash, and

establish the position of flexible arms

under various loads.

Aside from these projects in the ITA program, DARPA has been the dominant funder

of general artificial intelligence (AI) research,

and has proposed an extensive new program

called “Strategic Computing” for R&D in AI

and advanced computer architectures. Congress has appropriated $50 million for the pro

gram in fiscal year 1984, and DARPA plans

to spend $600 million total between 1984 and

1988. The program aims for advanced applications of AI techniques (weapons systems in

particular) and also includes some development of “supercomputers, machines like the

CRAY and CDC Cyber which can process more

than 100 million instructions per second.

Though this work is not aimed specifically at

manufacturing, it may ultimately (in future

decades) have some applicability for all computerized systems.

There may be some uses for supercomputers

in manufacturing, although currently only

CAD and, to some extent, machine vision,

need substantially more processing power.

Other automation systems may, as their sophistication increases, also require more computer power, but the supercomputer is not

likely to be the answer for many of these problems because of its multimillion-dollar price

tag and because hierarchical organization of

factory computer systems is more likely than

reliance on one huge machine. Supercomputers

currently cost roughly $5 million to $15

million.

The second DOD agency funding automation research is the Office of Naval Research

(ONR), whose manufacturing science program

has

●

●

two components:a

ONR has awarded grants to Stanford,

North Carolina State, Purdue, and the

University of Maryland (totaling roughly

$1.2 million per year) for work in precision

engineering. These projects respond to an

increasing need for precision in machining and high-quality surfaces, especially

for weapons systems and optical instrumentation. There are also a few nonmilitary applications, such as manufacturing

of computer disk drives. In general, this

research aims to develop machine tools

and other devices which can position and

shape part surfaces within a tolerance of

less than one ten-thousandth of an inch.

Four other research efforts are under way,

at a total funding level of approximateiy

$600,000 per year, in a variety of topics,

including 3-dimensional vision, adaptive

control of grinding and polishing tools,

and automated process planning.

ONR also supports:

A “special focus program in robotics, ”

spending about $1 million per year total

on a variety of topics, and emphasizing

“intelligent robot” projects similar to

DARPA’s.

Feasibility studies and plans for flexible

manufacturing systems, at $800,000 per

year.

Man-machine interaction research, at

roughly $500,000 per year. This work,

aimed at optimizing computer systems’

power and ease of use for humans, includes use of videodisks and multimedia

presentations, advanced color graphics,

‘E. Glauberson and A. Meyerowitz, ONR, interview, Aug. 10,

1983.
318 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

and improvements in ease of use for CAD

geometric modeling systems.

● General AI research, at about $2.5 million per year.

The Navy has also begun a robotics program

at its Naval Surface Weapons Center in Maryland. That program, budgeted at approximate

ly $4 million per year, is aimed at robotics uses

for the military, such as maintenance, testing

and support of Navy equipment. *

summary and Conclusions: DOD.–Table 66

summarizes DOD funding of programmable

automation R&D. It is clear that DOD supports a substantial amount of R&D efforts related to programmable automation. While

DOD’s involvement in this area has had significant spinoffs and has led industry to pursue certain aspects of automation, it would be

misleading to conclude that DOD’s involvement in this area constitutes a focal point in

the Federal Government for generic R&D in

automation technologies.

First, DOD’s projects are mission-oriented

in ways that limit their applicability to nondefense manufacturing. The vast majority of

——. ——

XTom McKfight, NaV~ Surface Weapons Center$ Personal

communication, Feb. 10, 1984.

ManTech projects, for example, are designed

to produce a very specific technology to improve a particular defense manufacturing process. Many of these manufacturing applications, especially those involving ammunition,

weapons, or armored vehicles, are unique to

DOD. Some ManTech-developed technologies

can be modified for commercial use, although

there is some question about the effectiveness

of DOD*S attempts to promote such technology transfer.g

Likewise, most of DOD’s more basic work,

such as that funded by DARPA and ONR, is

oriented toward military applications. A

DARPA official explained, “We don’t have a

mandate to be pushing manufacturing. . . YOU

don’t have to be a wild-eyed Strangelove to see

the possibilities [for use of robots in battlefield

support]. ” In many cases there are commonalities between military and commercial applications of automation technologies: A robot

that could navigate a battlefield could also

make its way through a cluttered factory; a

machine tool that can make very precise parts

for weapons systems can also make very precise parts for computer disk drives. Neverthe

less, R&D oriented toward military applica-

— —

‘General Accounting Office report, op. cit.

Table 66.–Summary: DOD R&D in Programmable Automation, Fiscal Year 1984

(in millions)

Manufacturing Technology (ManTech):

Army, Navy, and Air Force including $20 million for Air Force’s ICAM

program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56.0’

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA):

Intelligent Task Automation Program:

Systems integration and demonstration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6

Sensory control . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3

Advanced mechanical design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6

DARPA total. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5

Office of Naval Research (ON R):

Manufacturing Science Program:

Precision engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2

Other topics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6

Special focus program in robotics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0

Man-machine interaction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5

Flexible manufacturing systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8

ONR total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1

DOD total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $63.6

a NOte. The total M’nTeCh budget for fiscal year 1984 is approximately $200 MllilOn Of that tOtFd, CKJPrOXlMat81Y $fi m III ion

funded work in PA.

SOURCE Department of Defense, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Office of Naval Research.
Ch. 8.—Research and Development ● 319

tions has a much higher payback for defense

than for nondefense commercial applications.

Transfer of computer-related technologies

from DOD to civilian applications is increasingly the exception rather than the rule.

Finally, there is a set of DOD-sponsored activities, such as ICAM and ECAM, which are

neither directed toward a very specific defense

manufacturing process, nor exclusively oriented toward military applications. These

have helped develop substantial automation

techniques of fairly generic applicability. However, these programs, like most of the ManTech, DARPA, and ONR projects, tend to

apply to, and be useful for, only the most

sophisticated of current manufacturers. In a

manufacturing sector which has only a small

fraction of its machine tools equipped with

numerical control, ICAM’s hierarchical architecture for an integrated, automated factory

may seem to some like science-fiction. Moreover, because of DOD’s close relationship

with certain supplier firms, technologies developed under programs like ManTech tend to

be transferred to the sophisticated aerospace

and electronics industries.

In summary, DOD’s R&Din programmable

automation serves several distinct purposes.

It purports to save the Government a substantial amount of money in procurement funds;

it makes advances in certain technologies

available for commercial exploitation, primarily for high-end users; and it advances the state

of automation technology for many military

purposes, with some side benefits for nonmilitary industry. DOD has had a significant impact on the directions for automation R&Din

civilian industry, and ManTech’s MTAG

group also serves as a coordination and information-dissemination forum for industry and

Government. However, DOD’s involvement in

this area is not, nor is it intended to be, a

general-purpose avenue for widely applicable

R&D in programmable automation.

Civilian Agency Programs

Three civilian agencies have substantial research interests related to automation technologies: NBS, NSF, and NASA.

National Bureau of Standards. -Under the

auspices of the Department of Commerce,

NBS Center for Manufacturing Engineering

conducts a considerable amount of automation-related research. As table 67 indicates,

NBS’ work in automation has grown rapidly

over the past few years, to a $7.55 million program in 1984. The budget for automation research is a small part of NBS’ total budget of

$120 million, and it is also small compared

with DOD’s budget for automation efforts.

NBS has two labs, one in Maryland and another in Colorado, working on issues ranging

from fire and construction codes to evaluating

computer systems for Federal purchase.

NBS’ mandate for involvement in programmable automation R&D is threefold. First, it

is intended to be a catalyst for standards-de

velopment activities in industry. Standards

for computerized devices-in particular for ~-

terfaces between such devices—are some of

the most prominent issues in the standards

area in this decade.

Second, NBS is keeper of the standards for

measurement—the agency still keeps the official yardstick and thousands of other official

measurement standards in its vault. As part

of this role, NBS has also become involved in

R&D for such PA devices as programmable

“coordinate measuring machines” and other

electronic measurement devices that are increasingly used for quality control. NBS must

have the capability to certify the accuracy of

such machines, and it therefore performs R&D

on methods of measurement and methods of

using the measurements to improve quality

in production. NBS officials believe that the

ultimate trend in manufacturing, facilitated

by programmable automation, is toward factories which “cannot make a bad part. ” That
320 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 67.—Automation Research, National Bureau of Standards

Year Appropriation Reimbursable aTotal Staff (FTE)b

1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,150,000 $ 100,000 $1,250,000 1 2

1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,850,000 100,00 0 1,950,00 0 1 9

1981 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,450,000 100,00 0 2,550,00 0 2 5

1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,850,00 0 66,00 0 3,916,00 0 3 9

1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,716,000 2,475,00 0 7,191,00 0 6 5

1984 (estimate) . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,850,000 3,700,00 0 7,550,00 0 7 5

1985 (preliminary) . . . . . . . . . . 3,900,000 4,800,00 0 8,700,00 0 7 5

a R&D contracted by Other Federal agenctes, primarily the Department of Defense

— .

b

Full-time equivalent.

SOURCE National Bureau of Standards

Photo credit. National Bureau of Standards

A coordinate measuring machine undergoes

calibration at the National Bureau of Standards

is, with various electronic measurement devices present in the production process and

connected electronically to PA control computers, the production line could sense minor

variations in dimensions before they became

a defect, and the control computers could send

a signal to the production machines to correct

the variation, or shut down the machine for

maintenance.

Third and finally, the Department of Commerce was mandated by Congress in 1965 to

recommend standards for the Federal Government’s procurement and use of computers and

to carry out supporting research in the science

and technology of automated data processing.

Acting on those mandates, NBS began work

in the early 1970’s on computer interfaces, including those involved with computer-controlled systems such as robots. Subsequently,

this latter work became part of a program on

factory automation technologies.l”

Among the highlights of NBS’ automation

R&D:

. In 1979, NBS received funding from the

Air Force ICAM and other sources to de

velop a set of standards so that different

brands of computer-aided design systems

could communicate with one another. The

standards, called IGES (Initial Graphic

Exchange Standards), specify a common

format for geometric data, essentially a

lowest common denominator for CAD

systems. Typically, the operator of a CAD

system can command his/her system to

translate a drawing from the proprietary

storage format of the CAD manufacturer

to the IGES format and record the IGES

data on a magnetic disk, which can then

be read by a different CAD system and

reconverted to the second system’s proprietary format.

IGES was released in a preliminary

form in 1980, and was adopted by CAD

manufacturers in record time, according

to NBS researchers. They speculate that

the reason for this rapidity was that the

CAD industry was “hurting” for a standard-that is, customer complaints and

dissatisfaction about the inability to exchange drawings between CAD systems

hurt sales and limited possible applications.11

IORobert Hocken, chief, Automated Production Technology

Division, NBS, personal communication, Oct. 5, 1983.

‘

l Robert Hocken, Chief, Automated Production Technology

Division, NBS; OTA Automation Technology Workshop. A second and third version of IGES have been launched, building
— —..—..—

Ch. 8.—Research and Development ● 321

● With funding assistance from the Air

Force and Navy, NBS researchers are de

signing and assembling an Automated

Manufacturing Research Facility

(AM RF) to serve as a laboratory for various kinds of CIM R&D. The facility is being constructed in a portion of the NBS

machining shop in Gaithersburg, Md.,

which produces roughly $2.5 million

worth of parts annually for use by NBS

researchers. PA equipment manufacturers have donated several key pieces of

equipment for the project that are, in

some cases, more advanced than commercially available products. In this project,

as in others in NBS automation R&D efforts, industry has loaned technical staff

to work at NBS for a fixed period of time.

In return, the firm gets firsthand knowledge of NBS R&D and enhanced opportunities to transfer technologies developed at NBS to their own labs. The

AMRF is constructed from “off-the-shelf”

hardware (i.e., the machine tools, robots,

and other devices are bought from or donated by manufacturers from their product lines) because NBS argues that it is

software and interface systems, not hardware, which need to be developed further

to enhance possibilities for automated

manufacturing. In addition, NBS officials

working with the AMRF are emphasizing

the possible applications of automated

technology for the large number of small

machine shops which fabricate parts in

batches too small for conventional automation, but large enough to enable the

use of PA. *

● NBS researchers also pursue a wide range

of R&D related to specific PA technologies, including important work in the use

of structured light for 3-D vision perception, simulation of factory operations, and

control systems for automated factories.

on the initial version, and makers of 30 CAD systems have announced that they subscribe to IGES. (“ IGES Version Accommodates Modelers, ” America Metal Market/Metalworking

News, Dec. 13, 1982).

*OTA site vigit9, AM RF/NBS, Apr. 18, 1983, and NOV. 14!

1983.

NBS staffers also contribute to standards

efforts by serving on and helping to coordinate

the many private sector standards committees

working on automation issues.

National Science Foundation.–NSF also

plays a significant role in funding of automation research. Because of its interdisciplinary

nature, several different parts of the agency

contribute to this work. Table 68 highlights

some of the programs within NSF which fund

PA research. NSF has tried to rationalize and

coordinate its funding in this area by establishing in 1981 a Coordinating Committee on

Research on Intelligent Robotic Systems, and

by issuing in 1983 a “Program Announcement

in Intelligent Robotics Systems and Automated Manufacturing, ” which sets forth the

possible avenues for funding.

The Production Research Program in the

Engineering Directorate* is directly focused

on programmable automation for discrete

manufacturing. This program has grown

rapidly in the past 5 years-from $2.3 million

in 1980 to $4.6 million in 1984—but is still

relatively small. Although exact figures are

not available, NSF officials estimate that the

funding for PA research from all programs at

NSF might be 1.5-2 times as much as the

budget of Production Research, or roughly $7

to $9 million in 1984. In fiscal year 1983, the

Production Research Program included 17

projects in CAD, 47 projects in various aspects of computer-aided manufacturing technologies, and 11 projects in computer-aided

testing. Production research, in collaboration

with NSF’s Industry-University Cooperative

Research Program, also provided seed money

for two new industry-university research centers, one in robotics at the University of Rhode

Island, and one in materials handling at Georgia Tech.** ———

*NSF i9 ~vid~ into six directorates (administration;

astronomical, atmospheric, earth, and ocean sciences; biological,

behavioral, and social sciences; engineering; mathematical and

physical sciences; and scientific, technological, and international

affairs). Each directorate has four or five divisions.

**For ex~ple, General Electric (GE) reported that its mntly released “BinVision” system was based on machine vision re

search conducted at the University of Rhode Island. GE is one

of 27 companies, in adfition to NSF, which fund the center.

“Vision Sensors Expanding Industrial Robot Flexibility, ” Aw”ation Week and Space Technology, May 30, 1983, p. 139.
322 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace
—

Ch. 8.—Research and Development ● 323

Table 68.—Selected NSF Programs Which Fund Automation”Related Research

Program Aspects of automation

Automation, bioengineering, and sensing systems . . . . Touch and vision sensors, control systems

Computer engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Robot programing languages, computer architectures, humancomputer interface

Electrical and optical communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Communication networks, integrated optics for vision sensors

Industry/university cooperative research . . . . . . . . . . . . . Seed funds for cooperative industry/university research centers

Mechanical systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Mechanical aspects of robots, CAD

Production research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . All aspects of factory automation for discrete manufacturing

Quantum electronics, waves and beams . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sensors and processes using lasers

Small business innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Incentive grants for research in small high technology firms

Solid state and microstructure engineering . . . . . . . . . . Fabrication of miniature devices for sensing and control

Systems theory and operation research . . . . . . . . . . . . . Large-scale systems control, scheduling, organization

SOURCE National Science Foundation, “Program Announcement in Intelligent Robotics Systems and Automated Manufactunng, ” No 3145-0058, 1983

A new initiative for fiscal year 1985 aims to

provide $10 million as seed funds to establish

5-10 centers for cross-disciplinary engineering

research. It is likely that one or more of these

centers will be focused on automation.

Other programs at NSF which fund work

related to PA include Automation, Bioengineering, and Sensing Systems; Computer

Engineering; Electrical and Optical Communications; Mechanical Systems; and Systems Theory and Operation Research. In addition, programs in social sciences and policy

analysis include a small amount of work on the

social effects of new technologies such as

programmable automation.

The primary funding machanism at NSF is

grants made in response to unsolicited research proposals, which are evaluated by NSF

staff and external reviewers. Few if any

strings are attached regarding the nature or

direction of the work. However, NSF is also

mandated to encourage transfer of science and

technology to industry, and several programs

which fund PA research take an active role in

facilitating such transfer. Three staff members

from the Industrial Science and Technological Innovation Division, for example, in collaboration with eight other experts, recently

studied the diffusion process and called for

more coherent and supportive government policy in this area:12

“L. G. Tornat.zky, W. A. Hetzner, and J. D. Eveland (National

Science Foundation, Division of Industrial Science and Technological Innovation), “Fostering the Use of Advanced Manufacturing Technology, ” Technology Review, in press, 1984.

Taking advantage of advanced manufacturing capabilities is a process which will

require considerably more, and more systematic, attention to the phenomenon of deployment than has heretofore been generally in

evidence in U.S. industry.

This and related Government policy issues

will be examined in Chapter 10.

National Aeronautics and Space Adminstration.—NASA pursues three general types

of programmable automation R&D. They are

summarized in table 69.

The first is robotics and teleoperator research to develop manipulators for applications on space missions. Near-term NASA

uses will involve teleoperators rather than robots. Their movements will be controlled more

or less directly by a human, who is either in

space or on the ground. For example, the

Space Shuttle’s well-known Remote Manipulator System, which reaches into the shuttle’s

cargo bay to extract and manipulate satellites,

is controlled by the shuttle’s flight crew. Because of the relatively direct human control

of the teleoperator, human factors research to

develop the most effective combinations of

man and machine is very prominent in the pro

gram. NASA researchers expect people to remain in direct control of these devices for some

time because of the complexity of the tasks.

The robotics and teleoperator work is now

focused on a “Remote Orbital Servicing Systern, ” an unmanned space vehicle that would

be capable of servicing satellites by ground
324 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Phofo credit Natlonal Aeronautics and Space Adm/n/strat/on

Top, the space shuttle’s manipulator arm in a laboratory. Bottom, an artist’s conception of the

manipulator as it deploys a satellite from the shuttle
Ch. 8. —Research and Development ● 325

Automation research

Table 69.—NASA Automation Research (dollars in thousands)

Fiscal year

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 (prelim.)

program:

Robotics/teleoperators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 538 $ 245 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600 $1,600

Artificial intelligence/corn puter-aided planning . . . . . . . . . . 1,048 1,017 1,065 2,000 2,000 2,000

Integrated program for aerospace vehicle design (lPAD)a . NA 5,000 2,100 2,300 2,300 2,500

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NA 6,262 3,765 5,900 5,900 6,100

NA—Not available

—

Note Figures a do not Include salaries of NASA personnel which are budgeted separately lpAD figures include NASA funds only The Navy also contributes to the program, and plans to spend an additional $2 million for IPAD in 1985

SOURCE National Aeronautics and Space Adminlstratlon

control commands to its manipulator arm.13

For the future, NASA is exploring machine vision and AI systems which would allow a servicing vehicle to conduct repairs somewhat

autonomously. Most of this research is conducted in-house at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and at Langley Research Center. NASA

also supports research work at the University

of Illinois and Stanford University.

The second major area of NASA’s involvement in programmable automation R&D is the

development of an advanced computer-aided

planning system called “Deviser,” developed

at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in response

to the complicated and sometimes conflicting

needs for scheduling NASA’s recent unmanned scientific missions (the Voyager series). The Voyager craft is radioed signals to

direct its trajectory, aim its telescopes and

cameras, and manipulate other scientific

equipment. Dozens of NASA scientists request the attention of the satellite for particular experiments, and according to one NASA

researcher, it takes hundreds of man-years to

develop efficient plans and tell the spacecraft

what to do.14 Deviser uses sophisticated programing techniques to juggle the capabilities

of the satellite and the demands of the scientists, resulting in an order-of-magnitude increase in productivity, according to NASA officials.

l~A. J. Mein@, Jr. and R. L. Larsen, ‘‘NASA Resemch in Tel~

operation and Robotics, ” paper presented at the Society of

PhotoOptical Instrumentation Engineers Conference, Aug. 23-

27, 1982.

“R. L. Larsen, Computer Science and Electronics Office,

NASA, personal communication, Aug. 25, 1983.

The final area of NASA’s involvement in

automation R&D is an effort called Integrated

Programs for Aerospace Vehicle Design

(IPAD), which was begun in 1976. It is a joint

NASA/industry program whose goal is to integrate computer-aided design and engineering systems used in the design of aerospace

vehicles, and to link them with powerful software systems which could help manage the

tremendous amount of information involved

in designing such a complex product. Boeing

Commercial Airplane Co. is the prime contractor for the IPAD R&D effort.

Other Federal Agencies.-Severa-l other Federal agencies fund small R&D efforts, primarily in robotics for nonmanufacturing applications. These include the Department of

Energy, which is interested in the use of robots

to service nuclear power facilities. The Department of Agriculture has also recently been investigating use of robotics for various agricultural applications. The Department of

Transportation’s Transportation Systems

Center has conducted R&D in robotics for mo

tor vehicle manufacture in the past, but the

current administration views such work as the

responsibility of industry.

Summary and Conlusion-Civilian Agencies. —Table 70 summarizes the programmable

automation R&D supported or conducted

by Federal civilian agencies. The three Federal agencies primarily concerned with PA

each have very different roles. NBS plays a

unique role in three respects:

1. Support of standards efforts for PA devices, and relevant research to determine
326 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 70.—Summary: Federal Civilian Agency R&D in Programmable Automation,

Fiscal Year 1984 (In millions)

National Bureau of Standards (at NBS labs in Gaithersburg, Md.):

NBS-funded work. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.85

Work sponsored by other Federal agencies (primarily Navy and

Air Force funding for automated manufacturing research facility) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.70”

NBS Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.85

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (approximately

two-thirds is conducted in NASA’s in-house labs, and one-third

is grants/contracts to non-NASA labs):

Teleoperator research ... , , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.60

Artificial intelligence/corn puter-aided planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.00

IPAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.30

IPAD work funded by Navy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,875a

NASA total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.90

National Science Foundation (all grants/contracts to universities

and nonprofit labs):

Production Research Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.60

Other NSF grants centrally concerned with PA

from a variety of programs (estimate) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.30-4.60

NSF total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.90-9.20

Total for civilian agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.65-18.9 5

aNot included in civilian total

SOURCE National Bureau of Standards, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Science Foundation

how best to construct standards, particularly for interfaces between PA devices.

Z. Development of the AMRF, perhaps the

only full-scale test bed for integrated PA

research using some of the most advanced

technologies that have been developed.

3. Serving as a resource to other Federal

agencies and to the private sector on a

range of issues related to PA.

NSF is the Government’s only avenue for

support of generic research on a broad range

of subjects related to PA, although available

funds are limited. Hence, NSF supports longer

term research in many areas which might not

receive funding horn mission-oriented agencies

such as DOD or NASA. In addition, NSF

funds provide crucial support to universities

for building the foundation of automation

R&D–maintaining technical expertise in the

universities and helping to train new technical

experts through students’ involvement in research work.

NASA’s aims for automation R&D are complex and specialized. However, these efforts

could have substantial spinoffs in the longer

term.

Industry-Funded R&D

The amount of money and effort which industry as a whole spends on programmable automation R&D is hard to gauge. Statistics

about R&D tend to be either protected by pro

prietary concerns or muddled by inconsistent

definitions of R&D and industry classifications. With increasing Federal tax incentives

for R&D activities, many firms seem to have

broadened the set of activities and expenditures to which they attach the label, “R&D.” Is

Nevertheless, several agencies and research

firms have made estimates of R&D expenditures in various classes of industry, including

computers, and mechanical manufacturing

(see table 71). No similar effort has been undertaken for PA vendors as a group. However,

examinations of R8zD in information technology-related industries tend to reveal a pattern

of fairly consistent and comparatively high

spending for R&D as a proportion of gross

sales. By combining estimates of gross sales

in automation industries with industry ana-

“National Science Foundation, science Resources Studies

Highlights, Sept. 9, 1982.
Ch. 8. —Research and Development ● 327

Table 71 .–Company R&D Expenditures as a Proportion of Sales, By Industry

NSFa Business Weekb

1980 1980 1981 1982

Machinery . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.8

Office, computing, accounting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.0 4.3-6.4 5.0-6.4 5.1-7.2

Other machinery, except electrical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 1.6 1.9 2.6

Electrical equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 2.8 2.9 2.8

Radio and TV receiving equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.6

Communication equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2

Motor vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 4.0 3.7 4.0

Motor vehicles parts and equipment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.0 2.3

afJatiOflal science FOUrldatlOn, “Research and Development in Industry, 1980. ” Data are based on a suf_veY of aPPrOxlmatel Y

11,500 companies, conducted by the Bureau of the Census

bBusine99 Week, ‘iR&D Scoreboard, ” July 6, Ig81, July 5, 1982, and June 20, 1983. Data are based on the aMOIJnt of R&D spend.

ing repofled to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Form 1O-K Companies included are those reporting sales for

the year of $35 million or more and R&D expenses amounting to at least $1 million or at least 1 percent of sales Industry

classifications used by Business Week are similar, but not identical to those used by NSF. Hence the two sets of data are

not strictly comparable

lysts’ assessment of the percentage of gross

sales spent on R&D, one can arrive at an estimated range for automation industry spending on R&D (table 72).

Such estimates are possible only for the pro

grammable automation technologies that comprise an industry-notably CAD, robotics, and

machine tools. Table 72 shows that R&D

spending in just these three industries was approximately $264 million to $400 million in

1983. This is roughly 3 to 5 times as much as

the approximately $80 million spent by Federal agencies for the whole range of programmable automation R&D. PA-industry spending for R&D has increased rapidly in the past

few years, in parallel with high industry

growth rates particularly for robots and CAD.

(See ch. 7 for further detail.) However, robots

industry analysts expect the proportion of

gross sales spent on R&D in that industry to

decline from an estimated 12 to 18 percent to

10 to 12 percent as sales in the industry accelerate.

Only a few companies conduct substantial

work in more long-range basic or applied PA

research, as opposed to relatively short-term

product development (although it should be

noted that such product developments provide

important feedback to more long-term re

search efforts regarding productive directions

for R&D). These more long-range efforts include IBM’s research, primarily in robotics

and sensing technologies; GE’s work in robotics, sensing, computerized controllers, and

CIM; GM’s research in robotics; Cincinnati

Milacron’s efforts in robotics, machine tools,

automated materials handling, and flexible

manufacturing systems; Unimation’s (now

owned by Westinghouse) robotics research;

and Computervision’s CAD explorations. It

Table 72.—Estimated R&D Expenditures in PA Industries, 1983 (in millions)

Estimated percent of sales Estimated level of

Industry sales spent on R&D R&D spending

CAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1,600 12-18 $192-$288

Robots . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 235 12-18 $ 28-$42

Machine tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $1 ,750a 2.5-4.0 $ 44-$ 70

Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $264-$400

a National Machines Tool Builder’s Association. Note that the U S machine tool industry has been experiencing dramatic changes in level Of sale For example, Shipments 

in 1982 totaled $3.7 million, while those in 1981 totaled $51 miIlion

SOURCE Interviews and compilation of material from industry analysts
328 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

should be noted that users of automation technologies, particularly large firms such as GM

and GE, are playing important roles in R&D

and have in many cases become vendors themselves (see ch. 7).

In addition, some of the large consulting and

research firms have played key roles in development of programmable automation technologies. SRI International has been a pioneer in

machine vision and robotics research; Draper

Laboratories has conducted robot and FMS

research, and consults with industry on imple

mentation of automation systems; other

“think tanks” such as Battelle Laboratories

and Arthur D. Little have played key roles in

both research on the technologies and assisting in implementation.

There is also evidence of more extensive interaction in the past few years between industry and academia on manufacturing automation research. Many universities have set up

cooperative research centers in which firms

contribute funds to support manufacturing-related research efforts. These centers vary in

the extent to which industry has a say in the

research agenda and control over the results.

One kind of university-industry cooperative

program is the Manufacturing Engineering

Applications Center (MEAC) at the Worcester

Polytechnic Institute (WPI). Here, professors

and students work with staff from companies

to develop specific applications of automated

equipment. Emhart Corp. helped to establish

and was the first to work with WPI on such

a project. For Emhart, the goals of the program were to obtain:16

1.

2.

assistance in conducting practical, shortterm applications research that would adhere to industrial time lines and result in

completed projects delivered to Emhart

within 1 year;

a situation that would promote technology transfer-( i.e., that would help the

firms receiving the systems to understand

the development processes and the operations of the systems themselves); and

16 — —

Education and Training case study.

3. provision of laboratory and office space

on the campus for Emhart engineers to

enable them to work in an environment

free from production pressures and responsibilities.

MEAC’S liaison with Emhart resulted in several applications developed for the company’s

factories, and MEAC has now expanded to include two other firms.

Another form of industry-university effort

is the Industrial Affiliates program at Carnegie-Mellon University’s Robotics Institute.

Various industrial sponsors (Westinghouse is

one of the largest) contribute more than $2 million per year. 17 The institute includes labs i n

flexible assembly, flexible manufacturing, intelligent systems, vision, mobile robots, smart

sensors, automatic programing, and social ~.

pacts analysis. The sponsors, however, do not

have control over research agendas, but rather

have priority in obtaining the research results

and are entitled to limited consulting service

from the Institute faculty. This more limited

impact on research agendas is generally the

norm at top engineering schools with similar

programs, such as MIT and Stanford.

Industry-university cooperative research

centers are spreading rapidly. Though it is not

feasible to list all of them, other universities

which undertake PA research in cooperation

with industries include the [University of

Rhode Island, Georgia Institute of Technology (both discussed earlier in the NSF section),

Purdue, the University of Florida, and the University of Maryland. *

One of the most dramatic industry moves

to support university PA research was IBM’s

donation of $50 million in cash and equipment

in 1983 to support manufacturing education.

The grants were given to about two dozen

schools—$10 million was allocated to universities to implement new manufacturing-

“The Robotics Institute, CarnegieMellon University, “The

Industrial Affiliates Program. ”

*Others the growing list include the University of Michigan, Brigham Young University, and the University of Utah.
Ch. 8.—Research and Development ● 329

systems curricula at the master’s degree level,

while $40 million in CAD and other computer

equipment was donated to support research

and education in manufacturing using stateof-the-art tools.

Finally, there are several interfirm cooperative research efforts relevant to programmable automation.* CAM-I, based in Arlington,

Tex., has eight active research groups in which

members pool funds to support research in

areas of interest. The groups are Sculptured

Surfaces, Process Planning,

-Geometric ‘Modeling, Advanced NC, Factory Management,

Electronics Automation, Quality Assurance,

and Robotics Software. CAM-I was a spinoff

from DOD’s early efforts to develop NC machine tools. Now independent of DOD, the

membership of CAM-I includes American and

foreign com-panics as well as some universities

and Goverment agencies. The members pay

a fee for each of the seven research groups in

which they choose to participate, ranging from

$8,000 to $10,000.** In return they have a

voice in the direction of research and receive

copies of all the reports, documentation, and

software produced in the research group. CAM- I

does not actually conduct the-research inhouse, but contracts for research efforts in industry and private laboratories.

Microelectronics and Computer Corp. (MCC)

is a controversial collective research effort

formed in 1982, and aimed at research on advanced semiconductor and computer architecture technologies. Based in Austin, Tex., MCC

performs much of its research in-house with

about 50 researchers. It has a $75 million annual budget contributed by 13 medium-sized

electronics manufacturers. Another group, the

Semiconductor Research Corp., consists of 19

electronics firms. It has already granted more

than $8 million to support university research

that would advance- the technology of integrated circuit manufacture.” 18

* of the consortia which pursue integrated manufacturing R&D came together, either formally or informally, through

DOD. For example, several parts of the Air Force’s ICAM program brought together a variety of industry contractors and

subcontractors.

** CAM-I brochures.

‘

n

’’ High-Tech Companies Team Up in the R&D Race, ” Business Week, Aug. 15, 1983, pp. 94-95.

The issue of cooperative research efforts has

been hotly debated over the past 2 to 3 years.

In some cases, industry executives have argued that the ability of foreign companies, particularly in Japan, to form R&D collectives

(sometimes with government assistance) gives

them an unfair advantage over American

firms. Often, the perceptions of what antitrust

law will permit do not mesh with the law itself.

In general, collective research is permitted

under current U.S. law, though there may be

legal difficulties if, for example, the firms involved are those which dominate an industry

or if they wish to restrict access to the results

of the effort.19

The issue of what constitutes an appropriate area for collective R&D is not at all clear.

Some industry observers argue that the advantages of collective R&D are, by and large,

illusory-while Japanese cultural habits encourage group efforts of all kinds, American

companies perform better in mutual competition.20

In any case, there seem to be at least three

advantages in principle to some collective

R&D endeavors: First, a collective effort may

be useful if there are high costs and risks involved, with uncertain and long-term paybacks. Certain problems in programmable automation fit this description. R&D in

computer-integrated manufacturing, for example, requires an immense investment in equipment and tremendous labor costs because of

the complexity of running and modifying such

a system. Second, CIM is clearly an interdisciplinary problem, and a collective effort could

be useful in bringing together expertise from,

for example, a machine tool manufacturer, a

computer manufacturer, a materials handling

system manufacturer, and so forth. And finally, collective research efforts can afford smaller companies the opportunity to enter or stay

in a market where R&D costs would be pro-

“U.S. Department of Justice, Antitrust Division, Antitrust

Guide Concerning Research Joint Ventures (Washington, D. C.:

Department of Justice, November 1980). OTA’S forthcoming

study, Information Technology Research and Development, will

discuss joint ventures in R&D in more detail.

20WTA Automation Technology Workshop, May 29, 1983.
330 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

hibitively high if they were conducting such

work independently. Nevertheless, a great deal

of R&D in programmable automation is taking place without collective efforts, and promotion of such efforts may not be necessary

in this area. *

Other Sources of Funding for R&D

In addition to the Federal Government and

industry, a small portion of R&D funds are

provided by State and local governments, nonprofit organizations or foundations, and by

universities. Often this funding is in conjunction with efforts to setup local high-technology centers, for the purpose of attracting or

revitalizing local industry, or for retraining

local workers. Such centers are proliferating

rapidly throughout the country.

Michigan, for example, has established an

“Industrial Technology Institute” to help ease

the State’s adoption of advanced manufacturing technologies. The institute has received

grants from the Dow Foundation ($10 million),

the Michigan Economic Development Authority ($17.5 million), and the Kellogg Founda-

.——— —

Futher, current research efforts in automat8d manufacturing, for example at NBS and GE, suggest that the scale of effort required for integrated manufacturing research is not as

massive as that in, for example, the development of new aircraft engines. Such initiatives may require R&D expenditures

on the order of $1 billion. (See, for example, R. Witkin, “7 Companies to Spend $1 Billion on Jet Engine, ” The New York

Times, Nov. 1, 1983, p. D1.)

tion ($40 million).z’ The State of Rhode Island

has proposed “Industrial Greenhouses” to

capitalize, in part, on robotics technology de

veloped at the University of Rhode Island.

Even the State of Hawaii has made a $50,000

grant to the University of Hawaii to launch

a Pacific International Center for High Technology Research.22

These are only a few examples of the many

local centers which have been proposed or established. The proliferation of such centers is

evidence that many States and regions believe

that computerized manufacturing automation

technologies are “the wave of the future. ”

However, only a finite number of such centers

for robotics, for example, can operate effective

ly. And establishing such a center always involves tradeoffs with other local priorities. *

——— —

‘

l

’’ Smith Heads High-tech Group Pushing Advanced Facto

ries, ” Automotive News, July 11, 1983.

22A. A. Smyser, “Low Performance on Hi-Tech, ” Honolulu

Star-Bulletin, Aug. 9, 1983. This decision was relatively controversial in Hawaii. State senator Mary George lambasted the

program, asking, “What are we doing in this world-class competition when we are basically a sand-lot team?”

*For mom information on this and related issues, see the re

cent OTA studies, Census of State Government Initiatives for

High-Technology Industrial Development (May 1983) and Encouraging High-Technology Development (February 1984).

Both of the aforementioned are background papers for the forthcoming OTA study, Technology, Innovation, and Regional

nomic Development.

International Comparisons in R&D

Foreign R&D efforts in PA are tremendously varied. This analysis will elucidate certain

themes in the content of foreign R&D, and

point out strengths in particular foreign research programs. Institutional issues concerning foreign R&D (e.g., research cooperatives

and government R&D support), are addressed

in the International Comparisons chapter (ch.

9).

In order to analyze international R&D, the

level of R&D must be treated separately from

the level of application of automation technologies. Hence, while certain other countries exceed the United States in use of PA (see chs.

7 and 9) the vast majority of R&D in programmable automation has taken place in the

United States. Japan, West Germany, and

Sweden, and to a lesser extent France and
Ch. 8,—Research and Development ● 331

Great Britain, have also become important

contributors to automation R&D.

One indicator of the relative contributions

of different countries to this technology is the

number of patents that residents of each country hold. Patents are not a good index of quality of innovation, nor is it assured that foreign

innovations that are not marketed here will be

patented in the United States (and therefore

available as statistics). However, it may nevertheless be instructive to examine the intemational distribution of U.S. patents. A 1982

study by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office showed that U.S. residents hold 51 Derother countries (largely West Germany, Sweden, France, and Italy) hold the remainder.2s

Figure 38 shows that U.S. dominance in U.S.

robotics patents has been erratic but generally

strong.

Moreover, automation technology researchers believe, almost unanimously, that

the United States is still in the lead or at least

equivalent in level of sophistication in virtually all areas of R&D.24 A typical comment

23 U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, U.S. Department of Commerce, Industrial Robots: A Survey of Foreign and Domestic

U.S. Patents (Washington, D. C.: Department of Commerce,

cent of the U.S. patents for robotics, while-the August 1982).

Japanese hold 24.5 percent and residents of

“OTA Automation Technology Workshop, various personal

communications.

Figure 38.— Patent Activity by Country Comparison

❑ Unitedted States

Japan

Other

20 –

1 8 -

1 6 -

1 4 -

1 2 -

1 0 -

8

6

4

2

0

I 1

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982a

Date of patent grant

‘

3 January 10 March 1982

SOURCE U S Patent and Trademark Office, Industrial Robots A Survey of Foreign and Domestics US. Patents, August 1982
332 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

is this one from an Army technical officer’s

Japan trip report: “No equipment was seen

during the trip that lead (sic) me to beieve the

Japanese had any sort of technology edge in

the robotics area. In fact, much of their recent

work in the machine vision area owes a technology debt to R&D performed by such firms

as SRI International. ”25 This position is often

voiced defensively by U.S. technology experts

as foreign government efforts, particularly in

Japan, have received increased attention.

Japan. -It is by now a cliche that Japan’s

fundamental strength has been in applying

technologies, rather than in more fundamental

innovations. There is a moderate consensus on

this point, though there is not a consensus on

its significance. Some argue that it is sensible for a country to emphasize applications

when another country (the United States) is

a strong leader in technical areas. In any case,

the Japanese have taken steps to bolster their

capacity in areas which they have not heretofore emphasized, including software and more

fundamental research. A 1982 Japanese White

Paper explains:26

. . . It has also been said that Japanese technology has for the most part been introduced

from other industrially advanced nations,

and that only a few innovations have been

created by Japanese scientists and engineers.

Meanwhile, prevailing situations seem to

suggest that the once active creation of new

technologies by foreign countries has lost its

glamour at the moment; in addition, there are

many instances in which foreign countries

and business corporations appear reluctant,

as a strategic measure, to transfer the limited

scope of remaining technological know-how

to Japan. Given these circumstances, it has

become absolutely necessary for Japan to de

velop creative technologies on her own if she

is to maintain her economic viability among

the world’s industrially advanced nations.

25C S. Shoemaker, Spscial Projecti Office, U.S. Army Human

Engineering Laboratory, “OCONUS Trip Report,” dates of

travel: Oct. 4-17, 1981. Many similar sentiments were expressed

at the OTA Automation Technology Workshop, May 29, 1983.

‘“In Pursuit of Creativity in S&ma and Technology: Outline

of White Paper on Science and Technology 1982, ” Science and

Technolo~ in Japan, vol. 2, Apr. 1, 1983, pp. 18-23.

The Japanese plan for bolstering innovative

capacity involves establishing long-range

R&D efforts, setting up various new programs

for researchers, promoting public understanding of the issue, and pursuing active international cooperation in science and technology

development.

This plan is one of several wide-ranging efforts that the Japanese have announced in the

past few years. Others include development

plans for the “fifth generation” computer project and the “Flexible Machining Complex

Equipped with Laser (FMC/laser). ” The Japanese seem to have a propensity for establishing plans and goals which far exceeds that of

many other countries, even those such as the

United States whose research in these areas

is extensive. This has led one U.S. computer

expert to complain, “We’re being out-br~

chured. ’27

Many of these ambitious efforts have not

yet shown substantial results. The FMC/laser

project is a good example. Begun in 1977 with

a budget of approximately $6 million a year

in government money and significant private

sector support, the project was designed to

produce an advanced, “metamorphic” (i.e.,

easily changed) machining cell which would

use a laser both for cutting metal and for

measurement. However, the result of the project is neither advanced nor flexible, according

to an NBS official, and the use of a laser was

more a political decision than a technical one

(i.e., it brought the electrical engineering community in Japan into the project).

The program has broken little new technical ground. It has had to retreat from the

most ambitious technical goals of the program. When asked about these apparent

technical failures, the MITI people responded

that this did not matter, that the true goal

of the program was to create a national team

to work on automated manufacturing and

that this goal was accomplished.28

~~Nei,l ticoh, tintrd Data Corp., OTA workshop on Advanced Computer Architecture, July 14, 1983.

“J. A. Simpson, director, @nter for Manufacturing Engineering, NBS, “FMC/Laser vs. AMRF: A Comparison, ” s-h to

Manufacturing Studies Board of the National Academy of Engineering, 1982. Simpson arranged an exchange between the
Ch, 8.—Research and Development ● 333

The product of the FMC/laser project turned

out to be considerably simpler than its goals

implied, somewhat like a mass-production line

which can be easily reconfigured. Whether or

not this was intended, the notion of simplicity

seems to be an underlying theme in several

Japanese automation products and development efforts. Japanese FMSS, for example,

tend to be substantially smaller and simpler,

without the complex recovery methods for

worn tools and bypass-loops in materialhandling tracks which characterize U.S. designs. An engineer for Niigata Engineering Co.

explained to one reporter, “Complex systems

are prone to failures . . . we don’t want our systems to stop, not more than a few times a

year. ”29

Further, Japanese FMSS seem to place lower emphasis on the goal of completely unmanned production, instead replacing “some

work slots where logical”30 and leaving other

jobs for human workers. These principles may

seem to contradict reports of unmanned pro

duction at certain Japanese factories, particularly the well-known Fanuc factory near Mt.

Fuji. However, even this plant, upon closer examination, reveals a reliance upon human

workers and relatively simple processes. At

night, NC machining takes place without direct human supervision, although a worker

monitors the production floor from a control

room. Workers are still key features of the pro

duction equipment during the day. Each NC

machine tool has an operator who is primarily responsible for its performance.3

’

FMC/laser project and NBS’ AMRF staff. Japan’s MITI has

announced that the product of the FMC/laser project will be

made part of a new test plant for computerind, unmanned operation, scheduled to be completed in 1984. (M. Inaba, “MITI

Builds Laser+quipped Flexible Manufacturing System, ” American Metal Market/Metal working News, Nov. 21, 1983. )

29M. Inaba, “In FMS, Simplicity Governs: Japan’s PhiloscF

phy of Design Differs Somewhat From the U.S. Approach, ”

American Metal Market/Metalworking News, Japanese Machine Tools Supplement, July 11, 1983.

‘Ibid.

‘

i See N. Usui, “Untended Machines Build Machines, ” American Machinist, June 1982, pp. 142-145. There have been conflicting reports on the number of workers at the plant. In addition, several other portions of the plant use human workers

extensively, notably for asaembly.

The Japanese are very active in R&Don industrial robots. A recent JIRA survey notes

that the number of government and university

robot R&D facilities in Japan has doubled over

the past 3 years. 32 The number of robot research facilities in Japan, according to JIRA,

exceeds the number existing in the United

States, but such a claim has not been verified. 33 Until 1982, private industry had shouldered the major responsibility for Japanese

R&D in the robotics field. According to a

JIRA survey in 1979, over two-thirds of robot manufacturers had conducted some form

of in-house robot research. Private research

has concentrated mainly on application-i. e.,

on speed, miniaturization, computer control,

weight reduction, and development of interchangeable robots.34

Other International Comparisons.-For

historical, social and political reasons, countries have different strengths and weaknesses

in R&D areas. There are many areas in which

the United States is a strong international

leader. These include:

●

●

●

Long-range basic science research, where

the U.S. university system is unmatched

in size and effectiveness.

Artificial intelligence, where the most important centers for AI work have long

been in the United States (MIT, Stanford,

CMU, and SRI International; the University of Edinburgh, Scotland, is also a historically important center but somewhat

less prominent today).

Software as a whole, which appears to

stem from American dominance of the

computer field. CAD and computer

graphics in particular are American

strengths. The United Kingdom recently

has developed a very good reputation and

32Mutsuko Murakami, “Japan Stresses R&D in High-Performance Robots, ” Amen”can Metal Market, July 11, 1983, p.

9A.

‘SEij i Nakano, “Potentialities of Japanese Robot Industry, ”

Journal of Japanese Trade and Industry, published by Japan

Economic Foundation, January 1982, p. 7.

“P. Aron, Daiwa Securities Ameriq “Robots Revisited: One

Year Later, ” Report No. 25, July 28, 1981.
334 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

●

market in software as well. Japan is apparently attempting to catchup in software by pooling R&D efforts. In 1982, for

example, 25 Japanese corporations entered into a joint agreement with the University of Tokyo to develop software for

mechanical design.35

Systems of computerized devices (includtig programmable automation) are in general more sophisticated in the United

States than in other countries.

However, there are several areas in which

other countries are leaders:

●

●

The field of manufacturing engineering

has undergone a slump in the United

States in the past decade, according to

many observers, with the best engineers

avoiding work that was considered less intellectually exciting and “dirtier” than

more theoretical efforts. Although this

slump has occurred in other countries as

well, West Germany’s industries and

technical universities have maintained a

very strong program of production research and manufacturing engineering.

Research, although partly funded by the

government, is conducted autonomously

through industry/university consortia.

West Germany and Sweden have been

very strong in precision machine tools and

robots, in part because of the understanding of mechanical processes obtained from

these institutes.

Two foreign research efforts, one a joint

Norwegian-West German program and

the other under Hitachi in Japan, are pur”

suing ambitious work in developing more

fully integrated CIM, starting with the

geometric modeling of the product. Both

projects aim to produce preliminary products in the next 2 years. At this time it

is unclear how these projects compare

35Industry and Trade Strategies, unpublished paper prepared

for OTA, April 1983,

●

with similar integration work, particularly at GE, IPAD and ICAM, and NBS.

European countries in general are stronger in research relating to the effect of

automation technologies on the work environment. This work is particularly emphasized in Sweden, where the Swedish

Work Environment Fund administers research funded by the government and industry. Chapter 5 covers these efforts in

more detail.

There is significant interest in programmable automation in Eastern Bloc countries, although there is limited information on their

efforts. One U.S. robotics researcher, after a

tour of the U. S. S. R., wrote:36

Overall, I must conclude that the robotics

technology in Russia is at least a decade behind that in the United States. They have ap

parently recognized this fact and now have

a national program in this emerging technology.

Another titer described very substantial development efforts, particularly for FMS, in East

Germany, Czechoslovwia and the U. S. S.R.97

East Germany has a well-developed machinetool industry and an extensive program on

robotics development. Bulgaria and Poland

have factories which produce manipulators.38

On the whole, evidence seems to indicate that

the Eastern Bloc countries are a few years

behind the West, though there are concerted

efforts in these countries to correct this situation. Reliable data and descriptions of programs in Eastern Bloc countries are rarely

avalable.

‘D. Tesar, director, Center for Intelligent Machines and Robotics, University of Florid% personal communication, Aug. 3,

1981.

“’’CAM: An International Comparison,’ American Machinist, November 1981, special report 740. (The section on Eastern Europe was written by Jozsef Hatvany of the Hungarian

Academy of Sciences).

‘B. Roth, Stanford University, personal communication, October 1983.
Chapter 9

International Support for

Programmable Automation
Contents

Pagv

summary .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .$ .. . $ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..................337

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...................338

Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........................340

Direct Government Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............................340

Government Support to Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .343

West Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .................346

Direct Government Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............................346

Government Support to Industry . ................................348

Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............350

Direct Government Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............................350

Government Support to Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .350

France . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..........................352

Filiere Robotique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................353

Filiere Electronique . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..............354

Implementation of the Filieres Electronique and Robotique . ..........355

United Kingdom . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................356

Direct Government Role . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............................356

Government Support to Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .357

Other Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..................359

Norway . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .................359

Canada . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......................360

Italy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......................362

The Netherlands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..............362

Tables

Table No. Page

73. Government-Sponsored R&D Projection Robotics in Japan . ........346

74. Budget of the BMFT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........349

Figures

Figure No. Page

39. European Executives Pick Technological Leaders . .................339

40.Long-Range Trends in Japanese Exports and Imports . .............341

41. Government/University Shares of R&D Funds and Expenditures .. ...345
Chapter 9

International Support for

Programmable Automation — .— —.. — —— ———.

Summary

Many of the industrialized nations support

the development of programmable automation

(PA) to some extent. The degree to which such

support has been effective is not easy to determine. It is confounded by other factors, including technological sophistication, industry

characteristics, and cultural differences. However, the efforts which seem to be most successful are those which conform to and build

on existing social and economic traditions.

The Japanese Government, mainly through

the activities of its Ministry of International

Trade and Industry (M ITI), has developed

long-range plans for economic growth, productivity growth, and export competitiveness.

The most notable contribution of MITI has

been to encourage the diffusion of PA technologies to small and medium-sized firms. In this

way MITI has also stimulated low-cost, mass

production of the low-end products of the PA

market. This has helped Japanese producers

become strong competitors in the international PA market.

Since the mid-1970’s, West Germany has

been committed to enhancing the international

competitiveness of the advanced technology

sectors of its economy through strong support

of research and development (R&D). The Ministry for Research and Technology (BMFT) is

the lead agency for coordinating science and

tecnology pOlicy with overall macroeconomic

policy goals. BMFT has established an Advanced Manufacturing Technologies Program

in order to promote the riskier types of innovation in this sector. The government has

placed a strong emphasis on developing an

understanding of the ways in which PA will

affect the workplace and the labor force.

In the 1980’s, the Swedish Government

began to devote more resources to long-term

research in PA in the hopes of bolstering

Swedish economic growth. The Swedes are already significant robot producers. The Government also has a strong interest in education and retraining, which is consistent with

its traditionally strong manpower policies.

The French Government under Mitterrand

has made a strong commitment to speeding

up the development and diffusion of PA, in

part to enhance competitiveness. Japan and

Sweden have set up robot manufacturing facilities in France as part of a Government

strategy for technology transfer. The French

Government has also shown concern for the

human impacts of the implementation of PA.

The Department of Industry and Trade in

the United Kingdom has a set of “schemes”

to promote capital investments in PA. To

date, however, these schemes have not been

notably successful in promoting the diffusion

of PA in Great Britain. The Government recently set up a national advanced technology

research program to support R&D in PA industries, among others.

Norway has no extensive Government programs to encourage PA, although its production and application are progressing. The Government is urging the development of new

technologies to promote industrial expansion.

It has also identified key social impacts that

the transition to advanced technology industries is having on the labor force.

The Canadian Government is playing a large

role in encouraging the

plementation of PA. It

development and imhas developed model

337
338 “ Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— —

programs for Government investment strat- Italy is a significant producer and exporter

egies and for encouraging labor-management of machine tools and industrial robots. Some

cooperation in dealing with dislocation, re- predict that Italy may also become one of the

training, and work environment issues. The top five producers of industrial robots by the

programs are new and the development effort 1990’s.

starts from a relatively modest base.

Introduction

Technological change and evolving patterns

of international trade have focused attention

on government policies relative to PA and on

their potential effects on the development of

manufacturing sectors among nations. This

chapter describes policies and programs

abroad which are directed at the development

and use of PA, focusing on countries most actively engaged in PA production and use. *

While other chapters discuss international

comparisons in specific areas, this chapter provides complementary descriptions of major

foreign government programs.

In each country discussed here, PA technologies can be found in different phases of de

velopment and adoption. The rate of adoption

depends on the nature of each country’s

manufacturing sector, the availability of appropriately skilled labor, the nature of public

and private research efforts, and such factors

as capital availability, awareness of the technologies and their capabilities, and government incentives to encourage implementation.

Industrialized nations have different traditions of government involvement in technology and industry development. The distinctive

cultural, social, political, and economic characteristics of each nation shape its policies.

The course of development among national

*Note that reliable and useful information on support for ~d

use of PA in Eastern bloc countries is virtually nonexistent.

Hence, these countries are not included in this analysis. In addition, other countries not covered here, including many in the

Third World, also produce and use PA to a limited extent. For

example, the use of CAD systems for mapping applications is

growing in less developed countries.

manufacturing sectors also varies, depending

on the size of the economy, the nature of the

local capital market, the extent to which the

economy depends on exports, and the flexibility of the labor market. These national differences make it difficult to measure and compare the effects that macroeconomic and

macroeconomic policies have on a country’s

competitive advantage in international trade,

its industrial mix, and its employment profile.

International differences also militate against

the direct transplantation of foreign programs

to other countries. Finally, the availability of

information about foreign support for PA is

very uneven, and the timeliness and accuracy

of that information is a recurring problem for

international comparisons regarding PA. Nevertheless, this discussion is offered for illustrative purposes and to provide a measure

of the level of foreign government interest in

PA.

Industrial and technological development

abroad appear to reflect less the dollar amount

of government support than the nature of

government programs and their relation to existing political, economic, and social conditions. It is not clear that current PA R&D programs in the United Kingdom and France, for

example, have been notably successful. The climate for research and the mechanisms for assuring that research results are disseminated

to industry in those countries may not be as

favorable as in the United States. For example, the mobility of researchers between industry and universities appears to be greater in

the United States. Moreover, Europeans are

currently concerned that loss of their top scien-
Ch. 9—International Support for Programmable Automation . 339

——

tists to the United States may diminish their

prospects for economic growth. ’

A group of more than 200 European corporate chief executives recently surveyed by the

Wall Street Journal “believe their continent

has declined as a source of technology leadership, with the U.S. maintaining its top position and Japan gaining in importance. ”2 Figure 39 shows how the executives rated

different nations in technological leadership.

The perceived losses in technological leadership by European countries—particularly

West Germany and the United Kingdom—are

— —

‘Diane L. Coutu, “European Nations Fret Over Mounting

Losses of Scientists to the U.S., ” The Wall Street Journal, Oct.

21, 1983.

‘J. Huey, “Executives Assess Europe’s Technology Decline, ”

The Wad Street Journal, Feb. 1, 1984, p. 28. The Journal, BoozAllen & Hamilton, Inc., and HR&H Marketing Research International of London selected the executives from the top 1,000

companies in Europe ranked by revenue. The Journal’s coverage

is based on responses to the survey, Booz-Allen’s analysis, and

the work of the Journal’s reporting staff. The Journal writes:

“The survey isn’t intended to be statistically rigorous, but it

represents probably the most comprehensive current survey of

executive attitudes regarding the technology on a pan-European

and multi-industry scale. ”

striking. The explanations offered by the executives surveyed include a lack of trained personnel for developing and introducing new

technology; relatively low status for technology issues and technical personnel within

corporations; and a strong conservatism

among European businessmen. These factors

result in part in an emphasis on technology

for cost reduction, as opposed to innovation

as a source of new products, improved product performance, or improved customer service. It is interesting to note that most of the

problems cited by European executives have

also been cited in similar studies in the United

States.3 According to the Journal survey, European executives apparently believe that U.S.

corporations are responding to those problems

more effectively than they are themselves, de

spite domestic criticism of U.S. industry and

policies.

‘See, for example, R. H. Hayes and W. J. Abernathy, “Managing Our Way To Economic Decline, ” Harvard Business Review,

July-August 1980, pp. 67-77; R. G. Shaeffer and A. R. Janger,

The Conference Boardf “Who is Top Management?” report No.

821, 1982, as well as other Conference Board reports.

Figure 39.—European Executives Pick Technological Leadersa (percent)

Inal %

El h—

100

80

60

40

20

6

1 In the past

Today and In the future

< a

Respondents could choose more than one country

.—+

5 al / .

nB-L

[n

SOURCE The Wall Street Journal and Booz.Allen & Hamilton, Inc , survey Of more than 200 chief executives of corporations In 16 foreign coun.

tries as reported in The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 1, 1984, p 28
340 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— — — —.—

On the other hand, European countries tend

to focus more attention, political support, and

research on the human aspects of automation

than does the United States. Attention to social issues related to PA parallels traditions

in many countries of strong programs for employment security and training and prominent

representation of labor groups in the political

arena. Concern abroad for the employment effects of PA is high and likely to grow in light

of the relatively low rates of job creation in

many European countries and the labor displacement potential commonly associated

with PA. Recent analyses by the Organization

for Economic Cooperation and Development,

for example, concluded that the United States

had created 22.5 million new jobs since 1980,

while industrial employment in Western Europe fell by 1.5 million in the same period.4

The following sections describe policies and

programs in each country related to both the

social and technical aspects of PA.

4Paul Lewis, “Nations Seek Key to Growth, ” The New York

Times, Feb. 15, 1984.

Japan

Direct Government Role

Given Japan’s scarcity of indigenous natural resources and its reliance on other nations

for imports of food, energy, and raw materials, the Japanese strive to maintain a high volume of exports. Thus, international competitiveness and the ability to sell abroad is of

crucial importance to the Japanese economy.

Over the last decade Japanese firms have

made a concerted effort to increase export

sales in manufacturing industries.5 Figure 40

demonstrates how the character of Japanese

exports and imports has changed dramatically

in the past few decades, partly as a result of

the stewardship of MITI.

Since the Meiji Restoration in 1868, there

has been a tradition of Government-industry

cooperation, and the Government has historically been able to intervene effectively in the

economy. Thus, industry has traditionally

tended to view Government as a partner, rather than as an adversary or regulator. In recent

years, however, this cooperative relationship

has appeared to break down to some extent,

as evidenced by the ebbing role of the Ministry

of International Trade and Industry (MITI).

5 Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry,

“White Paper on International Trade, ” September 1982, p. 50.

MITI was organized in the late 1940’s from

the Commerce and Industry Ministry, and its

name reflected a new emphasis on international trade. While the agency has less independent power than is commonly ascribed in the

United States, MITI works closely with industry associations and other Government agencies. For example, a standard practice is for

a former official from the MITI staff to join

the staff of an industry association and act as

a liaison. The agency sets broad industrial policy, collects information on relevant research

in other countries, and promotes special studies where information is lacking. The observation that MITI’s role maybe decreasing seems

to be based on two major trends: First, the

agency played a major role in allocating scarce

capital in the postwar period, while capital

shortages are now much less severe. Second,

many Japanese industries (automobiles, for

example) have become very strong; hence,

they require less aid and resist MITI’s involvement.

The Japanese Government has encouraged

the movement of people and resources into sectors with a potential for high growth and high

productivity. Japan’s long-term economic

plans call for reducing the importance of the

country’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors, and expanding the economic role of the
.

Ch. 9—International Support for Programmable Automation ● 341

I

I

[

[
342 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

less energy-consuming, knowledge intensive

service sectors. MITI sees this as following a

long-term trend which is already evident in the

United States. It encourages this shift by promoting productivity and quality control gains

and reductions in labor, energy, and materials

costs. PA is one means toward these ends.

Government Mechanisms

Industries currently targeted for development by the Government in Japan include

computers, microelectronics and electronics,

lasers, fiber optics, biotechnology, robotics,

aerospace, and telecommunications.6 The instruments of industrial development policy

include:

●

●

●

Visions.–These are Government-sponsored

papers elaborating on current economic

challenges facing Japan, and discussing

strategies to meet these challenges. MITI

writes these documents in collaboration

with industry, labor, and political interest

groups.’ The visions are intended to aid

business and Government agencies in

strategic planning.

Government Assistance. —The Japanese

Government provides small amounts of

financial support for R&D in private firms

in order to serve as “a catalyst to stimulate private sector support of mutually

agreed upon industrial development policy goals. ”8 In general, the role of Japanese universities in research is much less

significant than the role of industry, and

much less prominent than that of their

counterparts in the United States.

Rationalahation Cartels.-In the late

1960’s, in order to promote the development of internationally competitive firms

in Japan, MITI guided the restructuring

‘Harold B. Malmgren and Jack Baranson, Technology and

Trade Policy: Issues and An Agenda for Action, Washington,

D. C.: October 1981; and Cabinet Council on Commerce and

Trade, An Assessment of U.S. Competitiveness in High Technology Industries, U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, February 1983,

7Jimmy Wheeler, Merit Janow, and Thomas Pepper, Japanese Industrial Development Policies in the 1980’s: Implications for U.S. Trade and Investment (New York: Hudson Institute for the U.S. Department of State, October 1982).

*Ibid.

●

●

of Japanese industry by encouraging corporate mergers. (An increase in the number of new enterprises in Japan throughout the 1960’s had resulted in strong

domestic competition and a destabilization of Japanese industrial activity.)

There continues to be a high level of merger activity toward the ends of enhancing

management, maximizing the use of

R&D, and facilitating the movement of

capital among activities. Mergers are also

motivated by the costs for large-scale investments in R&D and equipment.g It has

recently been observed that companies

are beginning to resist MITI-encouraged

mergers as domestic competition in

high-technology industries increases.

Tax Incentives.— Special depreciation

allowances exist for designated plant and

equipment, in order to encourage development of targeted industries.

Monetary Policies.–Throughout the

postwar period, up until the early 1970’s,

the Japanese rationed credit. The Bank

of Japan controlled the discount rate to

influence macroeconomic decisions. “Typically, this ability was used to bias flows

toward investment in productive infrastructure and capital-intensive manufacturing and away from consumer spending, housing and social infrastructure. “10

This control eroded in the 1970’s as Japan

joined the International Monetary Fund

(IMF) and the Organization for Economic

Cooperation and Development (OECD),

and its capital market became more internationalized for a number of reasons.

Government Concern for Social Impacts

of Technological Change

The Japanese Government has strong concerns about the social impacts of increased application of PA and other new technologies in

the manufacturing sector. The Japanese Ministry of Labor released a report in May 1983

‘MIT Center for Policy Alternatives, National Support for

Science and Technology: An Examin ati”on of Fomi”gn Exchange,

1976.

‘“Wheeler, et al., op. cit., p. 7.
Ch. 9—International Support for Programmable Automation 343

— —

entitled, “Microelectronics and Its Impact on

Labor.” The report focuses on the employment

effects of robots and microelectronic products

and processes in Japanese firms. In response

to the employment effects of changes in production technologies in Japanese industry, the

Ministry of Labor has requested funds for the

establishment of a “policy department” within

the ministry. This department would monitor

employment trends and allow the ministry to

develop recommendations which would be considered in the development of national economic policy .11

Government Support to Industry

The Machine Tool Industry

A fundamental difference in the approach

of the United States and Japan toward support of the machine tool industry is that U.S.

programs have developed machinetool technology for military production purposes, while

the Japanese Government encouraged broad

industrial application of new machine-tool

technology .12 The Japanese approach included

government-funded research institutes, which

allowed Japanese firms to spend lesson R&D

than private U.S. firms generally considered

necessary. Japanese research institutions were

particularly responsive to the suggestions and

experience of commercial end-users of the technology. 13

Japanese competitiveness in the low end of

the world machine-tool market reflects the

widespread application of the technology in

the domestic economy. The Japanese Government provided technical information and assistance to small and medium-sized firms to

encourage the application of machine-tool

technology in industrial production. Govern11 U.S. Embassy, Tokyo, Japan, unpublished summary of Japanese Ministry of Labor Report on Microelectronics and Its Impact on Labor, Aug. 5, 1983.

12see National Machine Tool Builders’ Association, petition

to the U.S. Department of Commerce under the National Security Clause for adjustment of imports of machine tools, Mar.

10, 1983; and the response from the Japan Machine Tool

Builders’ Association, June 27, 1983.

‘

gNational Academy of Engineering, The Competitive Status

of the Mach”ne Tool Industry (Washington, D. C.: National

Academy Press, 1983), p. 31.

ment-sponsored technical centers provided

cost-benefit estimates, customized software,

and training to firms interested in numerically

controlled (NC) machines. By reducing user

uncertainty and costs, the Japanese have been

able to develop both domestic and international markets for small NC machine tools.14

The Robot Industry

The Japan Industrial Robot Association.—

In 1971, the Industrial Robot Roundtable was

established; this was a precursor to the Japan

Industrial Robot Association (JIRA). Formed

in 1972, JIRA was initially a Government corporation financed by the proceeds of sports

events sponsored by the machinery industry.

In 1973, JIRA became an incorporated private

association. This configuration allows MITI

to deal with robot producers as a group. Onethird of Japanese robot producers belong to

JIRA, as do many Japanese and foreign robot users.” JIRA’s function is to promote the

development of the robot industry through

market surveys, the monitoring of technological advances, public relations, and development of new applications for robot systems.

JIRA has been much more advanced in the

collection and dissemination of information

about robots and their uses than the association’s counterpart in the United States, the

Robotic Industries Association (RIA, formerly

the Robot Institute of America). However,

RIA is moving to bolster its information

gathering and dissemination capabilities.

Japan Robot Leasing CO.–MITI has pre

meted the development and application of robot technology as one means of pursuing its

overall strategies. However, the Japanese robot industry received little Government assistance until the late 1970’s. In April 1980, MITI

encouraged the establishment of the Japan

Robot Leasing Co. (JAROL). JAROL was established in order to promote the use of industrial robots throughout the Japanese economy.

The company leases robots primarily (90 per-

—

“Industry and Trade Strategies, unpublished contractor report for OTA.

15U.S. General Accounting Office, Industrial Policy: Case

Studies in the Japanese Experience, Oct. 20, 1982.
344 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

cent) to small and medium-sized enterprises.

JAROL is jointly owned by 24 major robot

producers and 10 life insurance companies.

The company initially received no Government

funding, but now receives 60 percent of its financing from the Japan Development Bank

in the form of low interest loans. The remaining 40 percent of JAROL financing comes

from the Long-Term Credit Bank, the Industrial Bank of Japan, and various city banks.

These favorable capital rates allow JAROL to

lease robots at more favorable rates than ordinary leasing companies can offer. Neverthe

less, other leasing companies and large robot

vendors have also offered leases to robot users.

JAROL received approval to extend leasing

to companies abroad in the spring of 1983.18

Financial Incentives.—MITI has also encouraged the development of several fiscal and

financial incentives to promote robot installation. Low interest loans are provided to small

and medium-sized enterprises through the

Small/Medium Business Finance Corp. (Chusho Kigyo Kinyo Koko) and the National Finance Corp. In addition, interest-free loans of

up to 12 million yen ($51,000*) are provided

by the Government to small and medium-sized

enterprises for the modernization of manufacturing facilities.17

In order to promote robot

applications for dangerous jobs, loans are

available at 8 percent interest for the first 3

years and 8.3 percent for the remaining life of

the loan. The Government budgeted 5.8 billion yen ($24.8 million) for these loans in 1980.

In addition to ordinary depreciations, a special

depreciation allowance was established in

April 1980 for those firms installing industrial

—

“Paul Aron, The Robot Scene in Japan: An Update, Report

#26, Daiwa Securities America, Inc., September 1983.

*Thoughout this OTA report, foreign currency amounts me

converted to their U.S. equivalent using foreign exchange rates

in New York on Feb. 1, 1984, as cited in The Wall Strtwt Journal, Feb. 2, 1984. Because the dollar was extraordinarily strong

compared to foreign currencies at that time, the U.S. dollar

equivalents given in this report are lower than they would be

under more typical foreign exchange conditions. For reference,

the exchange rates used are $1= 234.25 Japanese Yen, 0.7089

British Pounds, 1.2473 Canadian Dollars, 8.5425 French Francs,

7.853 Norwegian Krone, 8.1425 Swedish Krona, and 2.7925

West German Marks.

“William Rapp, Commercial Counselor, U.S. Embassy, Tokyo, personal communication, October 1983.

robots. A manufacturer who installs robots is

permitted to depreciate 12.5 percent of the

original purchase price in the first year, in addition to ordinary depreciation allowances.

This may allow a firm to depreciate its robots

as much as 52.5 percent during the first year.

The depreciation rate was lowered to 10 percent for 1984 and 1985; the program is due to

expire in 1985, though it may be renewed.18

Research and Development

In 1977, Japanese industry provided 65.7

percent of R&D funds in Japan, while the Government provided 16.1 percent and universities and other groups provided the remaining

18.2 percent. By contrast, in the United

States, industry provided 43.8 percent, Government 51.1 percent, and universities 5.1 percent. In the Federal Republic of Germany, industry provided 55.6 percent, Government

41.5 percent, and 2.9 percent came from foreigners19 (see fig. 41).

The Japanese Government, like the United

States and European governments, is modestly subsidizing R&D projects on robotics (table

72). MITI’s Agency of Industrial Science and

Technology has two laboratories in which a

considerable amount of research on robotics

is carried out—the Electro-Technical Laboratory and the Mechanical Engineering Laboratory. MITI has also developed cooperative

projects among competitive robot manufacturers, who contribute researchers to the joint

efforts. Public research has focused on theoretical problems that also tend to be relevant

to applications-speed control, improved positioning accuracy, simplification and modularization of robots, sensory perception, and pattern recognition ability. These joint research

efforts have sought to avoid duplication of research efforts by the producer firms. In addition, MITI, in conjunction with JIRA, spon-

‘aGAO Industrial Policy Case Studies, op. cit., pp. 25-27; and

Paul Aron, Daiwa Securities America, Inc., “Robots Revisited:

One Year Later, ” Report #25, July 28, 1981, p. 16 as reprinted

in OTA Commissioned Background Papers to the Exploratory

Workshop on the Social Impacts of Robotics, February 1982.

“’’Science and Technology White Paper ’81 Released, ” Science and Technology in Japan, January 1982, p. 9.
Ch. 9—lnternational Support for Programmable Automation ● 345

— — —

Figure 41 .—Government/lndustry/University Shares of R&D Funds and Expenditures

(Unit 00)

Japa n

(1977)

United States

(1977)

West Germany

(977)

France

(1977)

{

United Kingdom

(1975)

Funds

Expenditure

Funds

Expenditure

Funds

Expenditure

Funds

Expenditure

Funds

Expenditure

Government

161 (274) Unversities.

Industry 657 182

I

I

I

Industry 652 217

(1 9% of lndustry) Government Universltles, etc

(35.3% o of Industry) Government Unversities etc

Government, etc

Industry 556 Foreign 29 415

Government Unversities,

377 (52 7) 157

etc

etc

Industry 411 Foreign 56 

Industry 603 228 169

(25.3% of Industry) Government Universities, etc

Government Unversitiea, etc

Industry 408 Foreign 49 517 2 7

Industry 627 266 108

(30.9% o of Industry) Government Universities etc

SOURCE Science and Technology in Japan January 1982 p 9
346 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Table 73.—Government. Sponsored R&D Projects on Robotics in Japan

Project Period Sponsors

Industrial Robots Standardization Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..1974-81 AI ST/MITla

Research Assembly Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..1976-78 Japan Small Auto Promotion Association

Research Project on System Design in Computer-Assisted

Robot System Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . ...............1976 Japan Machine Industrial Association

Laser Based Flexible Manufacturing System Technology

Research Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..1977-84 MITI

Development & Research Project of Multiple Production

System Adapting Super-High Lasers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..1978-83 AIST

Research Project on Robotizing Cast Finishing Work . . . . . ..1978-83 Small Business Corporation

Research Project on Automatic & External Assembly of

High-Rise Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............1978 Japan Machine Association

Technology Assessment of Industrial Robots . .............1980 Japan Industrial Technology Promotion

Association

a AlsT_Agency of industrial science and Technology, MITI— Ministry of International Trade and Industry

SOURCE William Rapp, Commercial Counselor, U S Embassy, Tokyo, personal communication, Oct 13, 1983

sors the wide dissemination of resulting

research data.20

Beginning in 1982. MITI was to Carry

out a 7-year, 30 billion yen ($128 million) ro

bot research program. It was intended to develop robots suitable for wider application, as

well as to develop indigenous Japanese robot

technology in order to reduce reliance on

American and Western European innovations.

The program was postponed for a time due to

budgetary constraints, but work began in fiscal year 1983, and is still expected to be carried out over the envisioned 7-year period with

full funding.21

Another of Japan’s large-scale technology

development schemes involves “developing

complex production systems in which mechanical components for small-batch production of

diversified products can be flexibly and rapidly produced from metallic materials in an integrated system. ”22 Under this scheme MITI

‘“Paul Aron, Report #25, op. cit., p. 17; and Paul Aron, Report #26, op. cit., pp. 26-27.

“Paul Aron, Report #26, op. cit.

“GAO Industrial Policy Case Studies, op. cit., p. 9.

provided 20 percent [13 billion yen ($55.5 million) over fiscal years 1977-83] of the funding

for the development of a Flexible Manufacturing Complex Utilizing Lasers.2s The program

did not finish on schedule, and was extended

through 1984 with an extra 1 billion yen ($4.3

million). 24 The project had to be scaled down

because extensive reliance on one large laser

did not prove practical. The program has since

incorporated more conventional applications.

These applications, however, are not being

used widely in the commercial sector for technical reasons. The project has become some

thing of a “showcase” for advanced Japanese

technology. Other projects aiming at computerized manufacturing integration are also

underway in Japan, building on machine tool,

robot, and computer research efforts.

————.

“U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, High Technology Industries: Profiles and Outlooks,

The Robotics Industry, April 1983, p. 25.

“Federal Broadcast Information Service and GAO Industrial

Policy Case Studies, op. cit., p. 28.

West Germany

Direct Government Role an nations. The country has a highly developed social welfare system providing generous

Government expenditures as a percentage health, unemployment, and social security

of gross national product in West Germany benefits; the system also permits a degree of

are relatively high compared to other Europe worker participation in business manage-
Ch. 9-International Support for Programmable Automation ● 347

ment.25 However, West Germany has no

sharply defined industrial policy. It is similar

to the United States in that Government support for industry is more or less decentralized,

and there is substantial support at the State

level. The Lander (States) can give housing

grants to workers, grant land, and provide

credit guarantees to attract new industries or

preserve old ones.26

Since the oil crises of the 1970’s, Government intervention in the German economy has

increased in the form of direct subsidies, tax

relief, special depreciation allowances, and

preferential interest rates. The Government

guarantees risk-capital loans to private business through Risk Financing Associations,

which are made up of private banks. The Deutsche Wagnis Finanzierungs Gesellschaft

(DWFG), formed in 1975, is a financing consortium owned by 28 large commercial banks

and backed by the Federal Government to pro

tide venture capital in the FRG.27 The Government has also developed fiscal policy incentives to promote innovation, as well as an

information network on new patents to ensure

that they are effectively applied.

The Government provides over 90 percent

of total R&D spending in Germany, although

it provides only limited direction for research.

The Ministry of Research and Technology

(Bundesministerium fur Forschung und Technologies, or BMFT) is the coordinating agency

for technology policy and the major provider

of R&D funds. BMFT is concerned with general macroeconomic policy, promotion of inrm

vation, and the health of small and mediumsized businesses. The Science Council, or

Wissenschaftstrat, determines the objectives

and priorities of R&D policy and makes budget allocations and recommendations. The

Council is comprised of a board of experts

*’MIT Center for Policy Alternatives, National Support for

Science and Technology An Examinah-on of Fom”gn Exchange,

1976.

‘“Wolfgang Hager, IVational Industrial Strategies and the

tVorMEconomy, William Diebold and John Pinder (eds.), Atlantic Institute for International Affairs, Research Series, vol. 6,

1982, p. 241.

27’ ‘Venture Capital Struggles to Get Off the Ground,’ Financizd Times of London, Feb. 11, 1983, p. Ic.

from the Government ~th the Bund (Federal)

and Lander (State)], academia, industry, and

the German research institutes. Although the

recommendations of the Council are not binding, they carry considerable influence. The

Wissenschaftstrat embodies the emphasis

that German society places on scientific endeavors. 28

Government Concern for the Social Impacts

of Technological Change

Government-labor-industry relations in regard to encouraging and adapting to technological change are particularly good in West

Germany. A well-developed communication

network has been created between industry

and Government through “quasi-public, semiautonomous” research institutes and a system

of advisory councils.2g The foundation for concerted action between labor unions and employers’ associations on the one hand, and Federal, State, and local government officials on

the other, was established in 1966 with the

Stability and Growth Act. Regular consultation between Government ministers and labor

union officials on matters concerning industrial policy, income policy, and international

competition and trade policy has evoked a social consensus. so The potential Social impacts

of technological change (particularly those

that may take place within the workplace)

have been part of the political agenda.

Throughout the 1970’s, following the German

Social Democratic Party’s rise to power, a

large number of occupational safety and

health measures were enacted by the Federal

Republic of Germany. See chapter 5 for a more

detailed discussion of relevant legislation and

the Humanization of Work Program, which is

a central feature of Government action to address the social impacts of technological

change.

2’Malmgren, op. cit.; and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, op. cit., pp. 14-23. *~M~mWen, op. cit., P. 39”

‘“International Trade, Industn”td Poh”cies, and the Future of

American IndustW, The Labor Industry Coalition for Intemationa.1 Trade, April 1983, p. 30.
348 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Government Support to Industry

Government Commitment to Small

and Medium-Sized Firms

In the late 1970’s, the Federal Republic of

Germany initiated a number of programs to

promote research, development, and innovation in small and medium-sized enterprises.

The directing of technology policy toward

these companies represents a growing aware

ness in the West German Government of the

importance of such firms for innovation,

growth, and employment.sl These programs include funding for scientific and technical persoNNel, external contract research, and innovation consultancy.

Direct support of small and medium-sized

enterprises by the BMFT has been rising. This

reflects expansion of BMFT programs to include electronics, computer applications, and

humanization of the working environment. In

addition, the BMFT has increased its efforts

to make smaller firms more aware of the Government support available to them. The Ministry for Economic Affairs (Bundesrninisterium fur Wirtschaft, or BMWi) assists small

and medium-sized firms indirectly by supporting the Federation of Industrial Cooperative

Research Associations (Arbeitsgemeinschaft

Industrieller Forschungsvereinigungen, or

A IF). A IF consists of more than 80 individual

research associations which aid the smaller

firms through publicity, research seminars,

and technical advisory services. Another pro

gram administered by BMWi provides subsidies for 30 percent of the total cost [up to

DM120,000 ($43,000)] of contract research

placed by a small or medium-sized firm with

a public or private research institution. The

program is funded, however, by BMFT.32

The largest current program designed to

support small and medium-sized firms is the

“Program of Grants Towards the Costs of

R&D Personnel. ” The program is adminis91’’ Impacts of Government Incentives Towards Industrial Innotation, ” Meyer-Krahmer, Gielow and Kuntze, Research Po]-

icy, June 1983, pp. 153-154.

WECD, Innovation in Small and M&”um Enteipnses, Paris,

1970, p. 133.

tered by AIF on behalf of BMWi. It offers

grants of 25 percent of gross wages and salaries, and 40 percent of the expenses of R&D

Personnel.33 This program provided DM1.1 billion ($394 million) to West German industry

between 1981 and 1983. Its objective is to nurture industrial innovation by providing subsidies for scientific and technical personnel.

BMFT also provides free innovation counseling to small and medium-sized firms in several offices throughout the country. In addition,

there is a Technology Center in Berlin which

is linked to the German Engineers Association

(VDI) to promote the diffusion of technology.

This center provides information on the adoption of microelectronics and other technologies, assists firms in applying for R&D support from Federal agencies, and carries out

studies on new technologies.34

Research and Development

The Ministry of Research and Technology

(BMFT).–The Ministry supports approximately 6,000 projects in the form of grants to

research societies such as the Max Planck or

Fraunhofer institutes, national laboratories,

and individual research groups in universities

and industry. The 1983 budget breakdown is

shown in table 73. It is expected that R&D

funding will increase for biotechnology, information science, microelectronics, robotics, environmental protection, climatology, and public health.96

In 1980, BMFT established a program,

called “Fertigungstechnik,” which supports

the development of advanced manufacturing

technologies. The program is directed at R&D

efforts in small and medium-sized firms in order to provide a high level of technological

capacity in West Germany. In particular, it

provides Government funds for risky R&D

projects with high imovative potential.98 The

“Labor Industry Coalition, op. cit.; and Dietmar Frenzel,

Counselor, Science and Technology, Embassy of the Federal

Republic of Germany, personal communication, Feb. 23, 1984.

340ECD, op. cit.

“U.S. Cable Traffic, American Embassy, Bonn, June 27, 1983,

Robert Morris, Counselor for Scientific & Technological Affairs .

3

6Ibid.
Ch. 90—International Support for Programmable Automation ● 349

Table 74.—Budget of the BMFTa

Category of expenditure Millions of dolIars

General (societies and institutes). . . $ 21 7

Science and technology research 578

Information technologies ., . . . . . 243

Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,052

Space, oceanography, transport . . . 514

Total . . . . . . . ... $2,604

al n U S dollars converted at $1 DM 27915 -

SOURCE Robert Morris, Counselor for Scientific and Technological Affairs U S

Embassy Bonn FRG

program distributes funds in the form of

grants or loans for private, basic R&D, and

private or commercial R&D that includes work

on the commercial application of existing technologies. There is also Government-funded

R&D activity in Government facilities and

State-owned firms aimed at developing new

technologies. The program spent DM44.1 million ($15.79 million) in 1980, and DM58.5 million ($20.95 million) in 1981, and planned significant increases for subsequent years. Due

to budget cuts, however, only DM45.7 million

($16.37 million) were available in 1982, and

only DM38.5 million ($13.79 million) in 1983.37

The Government is also involved in monitoring foreign technological developments, fostering Government-industry cooperation, establishing national standards, providing

international educational exchange programs,

and export promotion.

West German-Norwegian Collaboration

The Fraunhofer Institute for Production

Systems and Design Technology (IPK) and

three other West German industrial research

institutes have been involved in a joint Government-sponsored research effort with the

37Robert .Morris, U.S. Embassy, Bonn, FRG, personal communication, Aug. 4, 1983.

Norwegians for the last 2 years. The effort

arose out of negotiations securing West German rights to drill for Norwegian oil, and it

involves technical universities and industrial

firms in both countries. The Norwegians and

West Germans are developing an advanced

production system (APS) for CAD applications in mechanical engineering. APS would

integrate into a modular system existing programs for geometric modeling, NC machine

tool programing, and process planning. The

long-term goal is to develop a state of the art,

computer-integrated manufacturing system to

be marketed by the firms involved. The program is built around an advanced geometrical

modeling system, which is designed to interface with all elements of a manufacturing system from design to assembly. APS is similar

to the IPAD and ICAM projects being funded

by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. Department of Defense (see ch. 8). The APS program, initiated

in 1981, had an initial joint funding commitment of $45 million.88

R&D Tax Credit

The West Germans have instituted a special

tax credit to promote R&D. A 40 percent depreciation allowance is granted for movable

equipment utilized exclusively for R&D. A 15

percent depreciation allowance is available for

fixed plant equipment which is utilized twothirds of the time for R&D. Another 10 percent depreciation allowance is available for the

construction cost of buildings of which at least

one-third is devoted to R&D.39

‘*Eugene Merchant, Metcut Associates, personal communication; and American Metal Market/Metal Working News,

“CAD/CAM Systems m Europe, ” Apr. 11, 1983.

“R. G. Morris, Counselor for Scientific and Technological Affairs, American Embassy, Bonn, personal communication, Aug.

4, 1983.
350 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Sweden

Direct Government Role

The Swedish Government has traditionally

played a very strong role in the Swedish economy. The Government owns 5 percent of Swedish industry, primary in mining, public utilities, transportation, and communications.40

Exports and imports accounted for an average 30 percent share of GNP between 1975

and 1980 in Sweden. Principal producers for

export include shipbuilding, mining, steel, and

forest industries. Nearly half of all Swedish industrial products are sold abroad, while almost

all of the Swedish energy supply is imported.

Machinery and mechanical equipment also

make up a large share of Swedish imports.

Given Sweden’s dependence on external trade,

international competitiveness is vital to its

economy.

In the 1970’s, Sweden was faced with serious structural economic problems. With what

was traditionally an export-led economy, the

country began to encounter increased competition in its major export markets. The oil price

increases and high wage costs, combined with

shrinking world demand and growing international competition, caused Sweden’s major export sectors to deteriorate. The rise in value

of the Swedish Crown as a result of the European Currency Agreement also hurt Swedish

exports. The most immediate aim of economic

policy in Sweden today is to lower relative

prices of Swedish industrial goods on the world

market, to regain Swedish market shares in both

the export and domestic markets.41

The Swedish Government recognizes that

production of PA equipment may be strategically desirable, and it is concerned about a

possible shortage of skilled labor. Historically,

Swedish Government outlays in support of active manpower policies have been relatively

high. The Swedish “Active Labor Market” ——. .——

40 The Swedish Institute, “Fact Sheets on Sweden,” September

1980.

41 Swedish Industry Up to 1990: Analysis and Policy Propsals, National Industrial Board of Sweden, 1981 Autumn Report, pp. 84-85.

policy includes early and mandatory notification of plant closings, a virtual State monopoly

on employment services, and extensive career

counseling and support for training programs.”

Sweden’s unique political and cultural context favors certain types of innovative programs, while it makes comparisons of Government policy with other countries particularly

difficult.

Government Support to Industry

According to an official of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences:

The ability of Sweden to compete on the

world market for manufactured products will

increasingly depend on the ability and willingness of Swedish industrial firms to invest

in and use the new generation of manufacturing technologies.4S

The National Industrial Board has also

stressed the need to promote structural economic change in Sweden in response to

changes in world markets and Sweden’s dete

riorating competitiveness. It has recommended three major types of policy measures.

The first promotes development of production

resources through investments in technology

development and acquisition of capital stock

in sectors that are expected to be competitive

in the long term. The second emphasizes selection or targeting of those areas which are expected to produce the highest yields in the future. Finally, the Board stresses that the

distribution of labor and capital in the production system may be strongly influenced by po

litical concerns.

—

“M. Bendick, Jr., “The Swedish ‘Active Labor Market’ Approach to Reemploying Workers Dislocated by Economic

Change,” The Urban Institute, Washington, D. C., March 1983.

‘sHans Anderson, Project Manager, Royal Swedish Academy

of Engineering Sciences, personal communication, May 19,

1983.
Ch. 9—international Support for Programmable Automation ● 351 — —

The Swedish Committee on Labor Market

Education and Training Within Industry

With respect to labor development, the

Swedish Committee on Labor Market Education and Raining Within Industry (KAFU) is

currently studying Swedish needs for skilled

labor. It is exploring whether or not the education and training system is supporting those

with “a weak position in the labor market, ”

and whether or not the Government should

take action which would put personnel training directly within companies. Despite the active manpower policies, unemployment is still

high, and there is some concern that Government-funded training programs are becoming

just a “holding pen” for otherwise unemployed

workers. 44 The National Industrial Bored is

also concerned about the supply of skilled labor and relevant Government responses.

The Swedish Commission on Computers

and Electronics

In April 1981, the Swedish Commission on

Computers and Electronics (Data-och Elektronikkomitten, or DEK) reported to the Minister of Industry on the promotion of PA in

Sweden. According to DEK, large opportunities for improving productivity lie in:

. . . optimally interconnecting various processes into computer-integrated manufacturing systems. In the engineering industries,

and especially those subjected to strong international competition [automotive industry, computers and telecommunications, consumer electronics, household appliances,

etc.), systems integration is regarded as the

key to survival in the 1980’s.45

CAD.–The Swedish Government has

placed a high priority on promoting the development of CAD. In 1982, DEK introduced

new legislation which included the allocation

of 14 million Skr ($1.7 million) during 1982/83

in part for the formation of three CAD cen44 Bendick, op. cit.

“The Promotion of Robotics and CAD/CAM in Sweden, report from the Computers and Electronics Commission, Ministry

of Industry, LiberForlag, Stockholm, 1981, p. 1.

ters.48 A DEK report lists the following motives for promoting the diffusion of these technologies throughout the economy: 1) to

increase productivity and, thereby, profitability; 2) to improve the conditions of work; 3)

to improve precision and tooling complexity;

4) to acquire experience with new technologies;

and 5) to reduce consumption of energy and

raw materials.47

DEK recommended that the Swedish Government coordinate activities promoting new

production technologies, and, in particular,

that it promote long-term technology development and skills development at technical

facilities. It recommended enlarging the vocational training program at the Swedish Institute for Corporate Development (SIFU), and

establishing a traini.ng program for vocational

instructors on computer-based production

technologies. 48

The Program for Diffusion of Industrial

Robots and Computer Control-led Production

Techniques. -On April 1, 1983, DEK announced the Program for Diffusion of Industrial Robots and Computer Controlled Production Techniques. In order to promote wider use

of PA in small and medium-sized firms that

have little or no familiarity with PA, DEK proposed the following measures:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

An information campaign revolving

around the 14th Annual International

Symposium on Industrial Robots (ISIR),

which will be held in Stockholm in October 1984.

Support for production technology development projects.

Educational programs for project personnel.

Development of a consultancy program.

Regional educational programs which

“Jan Carlsson, Computers and Electronics Commission, in

a presentation at the IBM workshops: Automation in Manufacturing: Effects on Productivity, Employment and Worti”fe;

Jafalla plant, Stockholm, Mar. 30-31, 1982, p. 24.

“Computers and Electronics Commission Report on the Pro

motion of CAD/CAM in Sweden, op. cit., p. 18.

481bid.
352 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

would include demonstration programs,

including robot-assisted lathes and automated materials handling, robot welding

and automated materials handling, and

flexible automated machine loading.

To further international recognition of

Swedish PA industries, I SIR will include visits to producer and user plants by foreign participants. DEK has also proposed a microelectronics campaign in Sweden. Finally, DEK has

considered establishing direct support for the

Swedish PA industry based on Japanese and

British models. Because it found problems

with establishing similar support mechanisms

in Sweden, DEK did not take a firm position

on this issue.49

The Swedish Board for Technical

Development (STU)

The Swedish Board for Technical Development (STU) operates under the auspices of the

Swedish Ministry of Industry, and provides

funding for advanced R&D in universities, re

search laboratories, and industry. Between

1972 and 1979, STU funding for robotics and

4mT~k~~Pn”du”n@profl~ For Industn”robotar ~h Datorstodd Produktionstelmik, IndustriDepartmentet, Data-och

elektronikkommitten, DSI 1983:6.

CAD amounted to approximately 25 million

Skr ($3.07 million) .’”

Total STU support for R&D in engineering

industries is expected to increase considerably,

to 260 million Skr ($31.93 million) for the period 1980/81-1984/85.61 Of this amount, 14 million Skr ($1.72 million) will go toward CAD

and CAM R&D. Long-term projects are also

planned for adaptive control of machine tools

and industrial robots, and a 10 million Skr

($1.23 million), 4-year CAD joint venture project is planned between Saab-Scania, STU, and

two universities.52 Saab-Scania will eventually

invest about 3 million Skr ($370,000) toward

the commercial development of this CAD 80

system.53 STU and the Swedish Association

of Mechanical and Electrical Industries have

aeneed to sponsor a 5-year CAD and CAM research program. Their agreement calls for a

commitment of 46 million Skr ($5.65 million)

and 48 million Skr ($5.89 million), for STU and

the association, respectively .54

‘°Computers and Electronics Commission Report on the Pro

motion of CAD/CAM in Sweden, op. cit., p. 30.

“Carlsson, op. cit., p. 25.

‘* Ibid., and Computers and Electronics Commission Report

on the Promotion of CAD/CAM in Sweden, op. cit.

“Computers and Electronics Commission Report on the Pro

motion of CAD/CAM in Sweden, op. cit., pp. 30-31.

“Computers and Electronics Commission Report on the Pre

motion of CAD/CAM in Sweden, op. cit., p. 31, and Carlsson,

op. cit., p. 25.

France

The French Government has traditionally

played a large role in the coordination, funding, and direction of the French economy since

Jean Baptiste Colbert founded the Academy

of Sciences in 1666. French Governments since

have changed the scope and nature of that involvement but the traditional mechanisms

used by Government have changed very little.

Since World War II, information technology, including PA, has been of major interest

to the French Government and therefore to the

French industrial and educational communities. Funding commitments, research, and industrial production for information technologies have been directed toward two major

goals: 1) world recognition of France as a

leading manufacturer of high technology products, and 2) the development of information

technology-based systems and patterns of

communication which could help preserve and

develop French culture and society.

Recently, France’s high technology push

gained new strength. The last French Presidential election (1981) marked the first time
—

Ch. 9—international Support for Programmable Automation ● 353

science and technology was a political issue.65

Indeed, all candidates had indicated that increased funding for R&D was one of their

goals. Before losing to Mr. Mitterrand, Mr.

d’Estaing had designed a plan for increasing

real Government R&D funding 8 percent per

year for 5 years beginning in 1980. When Mr.

Mitterrand was elected, he more than doubled

that goal. During 1982-85, the Mitterrand

government had planned to increase R&D expenditures 17.8 percent with the objective of

spending 2.5 percent of French gross national

product on R&D by 1985.56

Mitterrand’s emphasis on increasing R&D

spending was part of an ambitious industrial

policy for France which included employment

and education policies as well as planned market programs in several areas of high technology, including PA.S7 The programs were all de

signed around the Socialist principles of

decentralization, democratization, humanism,

and volunteerism. For example, researchers

are thought to have a social and economic

function which capitalism has inhibited. More

transfer of technology between industry and

Government is seen as one way of enabling

such functions to be undertaken and the nationalization of industries is considered to be

the mechanism for achieving social and economic research.

Several key high-technology industries, including computers, telecommunications equipment, aircraft, and electronics have been

nationalized. This is in addition to the previously nationalized automaker Renault, oil

company Elf Aquitaine, and aircraft manufacturer Aerospatiale. Today, about threefourths

of all industrial R&D spending takes place in

nationalized companies.58 For information

technology, including PA, the figure is considerably higher as almost every major industrial actor in the area has been reorganized to

‘

b

Pierre Algrain, “The French Experience in High Technology, ” Center for Strategic and International Studies, Georgetown University, Washington, D. C., p. 2

‘Interview with M. Morel, Conseiller Technique du President

de la Republique, June 20, 1983.

“’’French Technology Preparing for the 21st Century, ” fi”en-

.tMic American, November 1982.

‘

a

Ibid.

reflect a majority Government ownership interest.

Mitterrand has two high-technology plans

for PA. (The plans both had roots in the d’Estaing government, but were reorganized by

Mitterrand to reflect a stronger Government

role and increased funding.) The first, published in April 1982,69 includes plans for robotics, machine tools, and numerical control

devices. It is often referred to as the Filiere

Robotique.* The second technology plan for

PA was published by the Ministry of Research

and Industry in July 1982.60 This is referred

to as the Filiere Electronique and includes aid

for CAD and CIM.

Filiere Robotique

Three goals have been announced for the

Filiere Robotique: productivity improvements,

better working conditions, and economic gain

from the sale of PA equipment. The last goal

is of particular interest to the French. Although Renault is France’s largest manufacturer of PA equipment, representing 50 percent of France’s industrial commitment to PA

research, France still imports more than 50

percent of its PA consumption.G

’

The three goals of the Filiere Robotique are

to be implemented through programs of increased R&D in robotics, automation, mechanics, electronics, hydraulics, and software;

increased production of PA components and

materials; diffusion of automation technologies; and the use of PA in a variety of economic sectors. In 1981, total French Government assistance to the Filiere Robotique

amounted to 251 million francs ($29.4 million),

of which 91 million francs ($1o.7 million) went

to R&D and 160 million ($18.7 million) to man-

.

“L ‘Utilisation de la Robotique Dans la Production et ses Perspectives D’Avenir, Conseil Econornique et Social, 2 Avril 1982.

*A “~em” in Fr~ce is a targeted industry grouping or other

goal around which a Government plan for R&D funding, pro

duction investment, education, and dissemination assistance

has been developed. There are six filieres in France today; robotics, electronics, energy, biotechnology, working conditions,

and cooperation with developing countries.

eo~j~”ere ~]wtrom”que, P]m du Dossier, Ministre de la Recherche et de l’lndustrie, 28 Juillet 1982.

61 Ibid.
354 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

ufacturer assistance. Plans for 1982 included

increasing the R&D budget by 29 percent and

the aid to industry by 104 percent.62

Within the Filiere Robotique there is a separate plan for machine tools. Le Plan Machine

Outil is a 3-year venture in which the French

Government expects to spend 2.3 billion

francs ($269 million) from 1983-85. The plan’s

main objective is to double production of

French machine tools within 3 years. Key elements of this effort, according to the French

Government’s published plan, were the nationalization of C. G. E., Saint-Gobain, and Thomson, and majority Government participation

in Matra and Dassault. The French Government also expressed interest in reorganizing

the commercial activities of small robotics material manufacturers,63 but no course of action

for such was detailed.

There are three Government ministries and

nine separate agencies involved in the Filiere

Robotique. The defense ministry, through its

office of Space Research and Studies, has a

project (Projet SOLARIS) to study the use of

robots in space. The ministry of industry and

research has 26 projects ranging from the use

of robotics for the handicapped to their use in

nuclear reactor inspection. Involved in these

projects are the National Scientific Research

Center (CNRS), the Institute for Computer

Sciences and Automation Research (INRIA),

the Data Processing Agency (ADI), the National Agency to Valorize (commercialize) Research (ANVAR), and the Atomic Energy

Commission (CEA). The education ministry

has a two-part research program which includes both the French university system and

the Grandes Ecoles. In total, the French estimate that these projects involve the equivalent of between 250 and 300 researchers.”’

The industrial component of this research

activity includes collective centers (both trade

associations and quasi-Govemment groups)

formed around machine tools, textiles, petroleum, and other products. In addition, research

‘*Ibid.

S

Ibid.

“Ibid.

is being carried out in both nationalized corporations such as Renault, and in private firms

like Telemecanique.os

A related program is being carried out by

the Agency for the Development of Automated Production (ADEPA) of the Ministry

of Industry to promote the application of CNC

machine tools, robots, flexible machining cells,

and flexible manufacturing systems in small

and medium-sized firms. Representatives from

ADEPA identify possible users of PA equipment and invite the firms to participate in a

2-year trial use of PA in their production facility. Firms that agree are given equipment

to use for 2 years and technical assistance

from ADEPA. At the end of the 2-year trial

period, the firm has the option of paying for

the machinery (less 2 years’ depreciation

charges) or returning it and paying only the

depreciation cost. Of the first 100 companies

that participated, almost none returned the

equipment. oe

Filiere Electronique

This program’s stated long-term goal was

to place France on a technological level in electronics equal to that of the United States and

Japan. The infusion of 140 billion francs ($16.4

billion) in R&D funds over the 5 years following 1982 was expected to produce a surplus

balance of trade in information technology,

create 80,000 new jobs, assure mastery of

information technologies, and accelerate the

production of information technology products by 3 to 9 percent each year. Eight areas

of achievement were outlined:

●

●

●

●

●

computer-aided circuit design for very

large scale integrated circuits,

computer-aided design and manufacturing,

artificial intelligence,

computer graphics,

peripherals,

—.

“Ibid.

‘Eugene Merchant, personal communication; and An Assessment of the Industn”al Energy Conservation Program for the

Pulp aud Paper and General Manufacturing Industn”es, National Research Council, National Academy Press, 1983, p. 14.
Ch. 9—International Support for Programmable Automation . 355

—.

● computer-aided translation,

 computer-aided instruction, and

● consumer electronics.

In January 1983, the Ministry published its

plan of action. 67 In the of computer-tided

design and manufacturing, an evaluative

group was assembled to design research, development, and production plans. The group’s

members included the Direction Generale des

Telecommunications (part of the national telephone concern), the Delegation Generale aux

Armements (part of the Ministry of Defense),

DEILI (Direction des Industries Electroniques et de l ’Informatique; part of the Ministry

of Industry and Research), ADI, CNRS, and

INRIA.

This group, along with several others

formed in the other areas of the Filiere, created

Le Projet Cadre, designed to pursue four areas

of inquiry: scientific calculation, CAD, management of information technology product

production, and software development for

PA.68 The implementation plans for this project were not specified.

Implementation of the Filieres

Electronique and Robotique

The public announcements concerning the

electronics and robotics sectors programs

made in the year or so following the implementation of the programs (early 1982) became at

once more ambitious and less specific, and

were accompanied by reduced funding. Funding in 1982 for the electronics sector amounted

to about 6 billion francs and 1983 expenditures

were expected to be approximately 8 billion

francs-far short of the proposed 28 billion

each year.69

67 Ministre de la Recherche et de 1‘Industrie, Programme Mobilisateur, 20 Janvier 1983.

‘

n

Ibid., p. 6.

“See for example, A. F. P. Sciences, No. 341, Jan. 17, 1983,

pp. 1-4.

Funding problems for the Mitterrand government have been pervasive, and the plans

for a vast effort in PA have suffered significantly as a result. In discussions with several

French Government agencies involved in PA

in the summer of 1983, it was revealed that

the average agency cutback for 1983-84 was

about 20 percent from levels projected in 1981;

this not only virtually eliminates the increases

desired by the Mitterrand government over

that spent by d’Estaing, but for several agencies requires operating levels that are lower

than those of the last administration. This reduced spending was not accompanied by a consolidation or reduction in the number of PA

projects. The entirety of the robotics and electronics sectors plans are intact. The result may

be that PA projects are funded at inconsequential levels.

several other problems were encountered by

the Mitterrand government in its effort to mobilize the country’s PA resources. Substantial

difficulty was encountered with nationalization, apparently due to a large philosophical

divergence between executives among the targets of nationalization and the former Minister of Research and Industry.

Even without the financial constraints on

French PA activities, there would still be serious manpower problems. The number of pee

ple with Level I qualifications (approximately

equal to an American Ph. D.) in information

technology is expected to fall short of needs

by 70,000 for the period 1981-90 in France. In

the French context, this number is quite large;

in 1979 it was estimated that 105,000 scientists and engineers were actively involved in

all aspects of French science (energy, pharmaceuticals, mechanics, etc., as well as information technology) .70

‘“Jean-Pierre Letouzey, Scientific Mission, Embassy of

France, Statement for the American Association for the Acfvancement of Sciences, Mar. 24, 1983.
356 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

United Kingdom

Direct Government Role

The British Government, as a rule, does not

actively intervene in the national economy as

much as the Japanese or French Governments. The Government provides funds for

R&D in risky areas and in areas with commercial potential. The Department of Trade and

Industry (DTI) has recently developed a set

of schemes including support for R&D, feasibility studies, capital equipment investments,

and demonstration programs, in order to encourage the implementation of PA in the

United Kingdom.

Since World War II, the British Government has been spending sizable amounts in

support of science and technology; however,

the numerous British economic and technology policies have lacked a clear objective and

have suffered from poor public-private sector

cooperation. Overall, the British machine tool

and robot industries are small, but the CAD

and CAM software industry is strong. Financial support for “high-technology” industries

has not been as great as support for the auto,

shipbuilding, and steel industries. Since the

latter half of the 1970’s, DTI programs have

focused more on commercial exploitation of

new inventions than on R&D, per se, although

mechanisms and funding have been provided

to support research where private companies

have been reluctant to invest. These programs

have not always resulted in commercially successful products, the most notable example be

ing the Concorde.71

In the late 1970’s the Labour government

investigated PA. The two most noteworthy efforts yielded the ACARD report (named after

the Advisory Council for Applied Research

and Development, which is responsible for advising Government ministers) and the Ingersoll report. The ACARD report documents a

———

‘lMalmgren, op. cit., quoting Gilpin, p. 51; and David A.

Brown, “Funding Dispute Snags British Program,” Aviation

Week and Space Technology, Apr. 18, 1983, p. 65.

working group’s effort “to consider the effectiveness of technology transfer and the adequacy of current research and development on

joining and assembly in relation to the needs

of U.K. industry, and to make recommendations. ”72 It noted that the United Kingdom

had many fewer robots in place than other industrialized countries, and it recommended accelerated application of PA.

DTI’s predecessor, the Department of Industry, commissioned a report on industrial

robots from Ingersoll Engineers in 1979. The

report “outlined the scope for, and importance

of, robotics, identified problems facing the

take up of robots, and put forward a national

robot programme, which foreshadowed the actual programmes followed by the Department

of Industry and the Science and Engineering

Research Council. ” Initially, under the

Thatcher government, it appeared as though

the initiative in PA would be left up to private

industry. However, at the “Automan 1981”

Conference, Prime Minister Thatcher, in a

speech endorsing robotics, indicated the Government’s willingness to take action to promote the use of PA in British industry .79

DTI also oversees an elaborate network of

agencies encouraging R&D and the transfer

of technology throughout the economy. These

include the Research and Development Requirements Boards, Industrial Research Establishments, Industrial Research Associations, and the British Technology Group

(BTG).

BTG was formed in 1981 as an independent

public corporation set up to promote the development and application of new technology.

It includes the former National Research De

velopment Council (NRDC) and the National

Enterprise Board (NEB). BTG attempts to ensure the commercial utilization of the results

.——.

‘The report, entitled Joim”ng and Assembly: The Impact of

Robots and Automation, was released in October 1979. James

Fleck, University of Aston, U. K., personal communication.

‘

g

James Fleck, personal communication.
. .

Ch. 9—international Support for Programmable Automation ● 357

— —

of Government-sponsored research and provides capital to private business in order to

encourage innovations. While BTG is under

the auspices of the Secretary of State for

Trade and Industry, its day-to-day activities

are free of Government intervention. BTG receives its operating income from royalties,

licensing, and other forms of reimbursement.

It also receives financing from DTI which it

repays with interest.

In early 1983, in part as a response to Japanese and American efforts to develop “fifth

generation’ computers, the British set up a

national advanced technology research program. A committee chartered by the Minister

for Information Technology and headed by

John Alvey recommended a Government/industry/university cooperative program aimed

at four main areas: very large scale integrated

electronic components, software engineering,

man/dmachine interfaces, and intelligent knowledge-based systems.

The Government will pay half of the cost of

this collaborative research effort in industry,

and 100 percent of research costs in universities. The “Alvey Report” estimated that academic institutions should carry out 50 million ($70.5 million) of research over 5 years,

and industry 300 million ($423 million), resulting in a Government expenditure of approximately 200 million ($282 million) .74

Government Support to Industry

Research and Development

Support for Industry R&D.—A series of programs was set up in the late 1970’s in order

to promote the diffusion of technology

throughout the economy; these included the

Microelectronics Application Program (MAP),

the Manufacturing Advisory Service (MAS),

and a Robotics Advisory Service (RAS). MAS

was established in October 1977 in order to

increase the competitiveness of manufacturing firms by offering subsidized consulting

74The Department of Trade and Industry, “A Progr amme for

Advanced Information Technology, ” The Report of the Alvey

Committee (London: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, 1982).

services. Its budget in 1982 was -# 9.25 million

($13 million), with 80 percent going to small

and medium-sized enterprises.76 The RAS is

operated by the Production Engineering Research Association (PERA), as is MAS. RAS

offers an information service, a demonstration

center, and subsidization of feasibility studies

to assist small businesses in applying robots

to production processes. DTI highlighted

these programs as part of a campaign declaring 1983 “Quality Assurance Year. ” The intention is to make industry more aware of the

Government financial support available to implement robots, flexible machining systems,

CAD, and microelectronics. The year 1982 was

declared “Information Technology Year,” and

relevant demonstration programs, public seminars, and conferences were held.76

The Science and Engineering Research

Council .–The Science and Engineering research council (SERC) is one of five research

councils funded by the Department of Education and Science. The function of the councils

is to promote and sponsor basic research in

universities and in Government. SERC’S “Robotics Initiative” was announced in July 1980.

It called for SERC to provide ’ 2.5 million

($3.53 million) for the study of future generations of robots. The program has already resulted in the development at Oxford University of a laser scanning device for arc-welding

applications.

Department of Trade and Industry

Special Programs

The Robot Support Program. -DTI initiated the Robot Support Program in April 1981

in response to the recommendations of the

ACARD and Ingersoll reports. The program

was originally funded at 10 million ($14.11

million) in three areas: 1) Support for feasibility studies in order to allow a company to determine if robots would be cost-effective. A company may choose a consultant from DTI list

of approved consultants for the feasibility

study. The Department will then pay 50 per7@ECD, Innovation in SmaLl and Medurn Enterprises, Paris,

1970.

‘“James Fleck, personal communication.
358 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

cent of the cost of the study for up to 15 person-days. 2) Support for robot purchase and

installation. The Government will support up

to one-third of the cost of the robot and associated capital equipment. Development costs

such as the labor cost for development engineers, etc., and the cost of new tooling are

covered by grants of up to one-third. The Department will also provide support for lease=financed robots. 3) Support for companies seeking to develop or manufacture robots. Grants

are available for up to one-third of the costs

of “projects involving the design and development by U.K. manufacturers of new industrial robots and associated equipment up to

the point of commercial production. ”77

Despite these ambitious product and process development schemes, many companies

applying for such funds have been turned

down by banks with strict lending criteria,

even though the Government guarantees 80

percent of the loans. Bank restraint has been

attributed to the perception that many applicants show insufficient commitment to their

projects. It is thought that as many as one in

five of the participants may fail.78 In addition,

under the consultancy portion of the program,

many firms decide not to implement PA because the new technologies do not appear to

be the most cost effective manner of improving their production processes. Furthermore,

the approved list of consultants provide by

DTI includes a disclaimer as to the competence of the consultants.

By April 1983, the following funds had been

committed under the Robot Support Program:

● 92 company installations . . 6.5 million

($9.17 million)

● 25 robot manufacturers . . 2.7 million

($3.81 million)

 69 consultancies . 129,000 ($182,000)

DTI has been disappointed by the low level

of interest from industry as measured by applications for funding. While the initial alloca-

“Department of Industry, U.K. brochure, “Government Sup

port for Industrial Robots. ”

78Tim Dickson, “Caution Among the Bankers,” The Financial Times of London, Sept. 18, 1983, p. 14.

tion of funds to the program may ultimately

be spent, the future of the program is uncertain. However, robots will continue to be supported under a Flexible Manufacturing System Program (see below). 7g

Other Programs.— Similar programs have

been set up under an umbrella “support for

innovation” policy. These programs have been

devised to promote CAD; computer-aided design, ~anufacture, and test of electronics de

vices (CADMAT); software development; fiber optics and opto-electronics; and flexible

manufacturing: 80

●

●

CAD.–Government programs include

demonstrations at firms, support for feasibility studies, management seminars,

regional demonstration centers to permit

“hands-on study, ” in-depth courses to aid

design engineers and production managers in implementing the technology,

grants of up to 25 percent for R&D involving new applications of CAD, and

grants of up to 25 percent of cost “for the

design, development or launch of new or

significantly improved products or processes .

CADMAT-Government programs include management seminars, short courses

for managers and engineers, demonstrations, a CADMAT information service on

the state of the art of the technology and

its applications, grants of up to 25 percent for the development of CADMAT

tools and standards, grants of up to onethird of hardware/software costs, and support for installation and training costs of

first-time users.

Flexible Manufacturing Systems (FMS).

—The FMS scheme was initiated in June

1982 with a budget of 60 million ($84.6

million). This scheme will provide selective financial assistance to cover some of

the costs of feasibility studies, installation of a new FMS, and integrating existing plant into a flexible manufacturing

system.

‘

g

James Fleck, personal communication.

‘“Department of Trade and Industry Brochure, op. cit.
—— .————

Ch. 9—International Support for Programmable Automation Ž 359

— —

The “support for innovation” policy also is

behind anticipated government funding for

technical collaboration between Jaguar Cars,

Ltd., British-owned Dainichi Sykes Robotics

Ltd. (a joint venture between the British

Sykes group and the Japanese Dainichi Kiko

Company), and Dainichi Kiko. These companies recently agreed to develop new automated

production systems for Jaguar automotive

facilities.81

In addition, the National Engineering Laboratory and certain trade associations have re

. — 81’ ‘Jaguar Venture May Lead to Robots, Automotive News,

Jan. 9, 1984.

ceived approximately Z’ 650,000 ($917,000)

from DTI annually for robot-related studies.

These grants have included ~’ 15,000 ($21,000)

to support the establishment of the British

Robot Association, and ~’ 240,000 ($339,000)

for the establishment of Unimation (Europe)

Ltd. in 1979. The National Research Development Corporation provided ~’ 420,000

($592,000) in venture capital financing for

Unimation (Europe) Ltd. More aid has been

proposed, but is under question due to the

takeover of Unimation by Westinghouse.az

‘*James Fleck, personal communication.

Other Countries

This section examines PA in Norway, Canada, Italy, and the Netherlands. Governments

in each of these countries play a less prominent role in PA than the governments discussed above, and less information is available

on their programs.

Norway

Direct Government Role

The extent of use of new technologies, as

well as the general health of Norway’s export

sector and the relative price of Norwegian

products, are and have been key problems for

the nation’s economy .83 They have been the

subject of a major study and planning efforts.

Norwegian work environment programs are

discussed in chapter 5.

The Lied Committee

In March 1978, the Lied Committee was appointed to study the structural problems fac-

——

‘

s

Stein Berge, Second Secretary, Embassy of Norway, personal communication, Feb. 24, 1984.

ing the Norwegian economy and to identify

areas of possible growth in Norwegian industry. While recommending a long-term strategy for Norwegian industrial development, the

committee stressed that the role of the

Government should be limited to providing

sound macroeconomic conditions. The committee emphasized that it is not the Government

role to determine which firms or which types

of industries should be given priority. Instead,

it suggested that the decentralized market

system, wherein individual firms make decisions based on what they predict will be profitable, should continue to prevail in Norway.

The committee suggested that the development of a long-term strategy should take into

account the following conditions of Norwegian

national resources:

a considerable quantity of cheap electric

power,

full coverage of future needs for oil and

natural gas,

production of a considerable amount of oil

and natural gas for export, and

25-452 0-84 -24 : 3
360 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

● reasonable access to capital due to oil and

natural gas export revenues.84

The committee also recommended that Norway concentrate on improving its export sector, mainly by lowering the cost of Norwegian

goods relative to those of surrounding countries. This could be achieved through productivity increases, structural rationalization,

minimization of wage increases, and tax adjustment.

The committee deemed the ability to apply

new technological developments crucial to industrial expansion. It argued that the Government could create the proper conditions for

technological diffusion through an expansion

of the educational system to provide more

engineers and qualified skilled workers. Finally, the committee recommended that the Government encourage the establishment of new

industries based on new technologies. Though

the Norwegian Government has generally accepted the recommendations of the Lied Committee, there has been no particular action

based on the report.

The Norwegian Ministry of Local

Government and Labor

A working group of the Norwegian Ministry

of Local Government and Labor reported to

the Ministry in 1980 on the potential effects

of steadily increasing factory automation on

employment and working conditions in the

1980’s. The working group predicted that automated materials handling systems will allow

the Norwegian wood-processing industry tore

duce its labor force by 50 percent by 1985. It

also predicted that the number of computerized numerically controlled (CNC) machine

tools will increase in the machining industry,

as will the application of robots for welding

and spray-painting.85

The working group pointed out that while

there is a wide range of possible applications

for information technology in industry, these

8iNor@9 offentflge utredninwr, Employment ~d Wor~”ng

Conditions in the 1980’s, NOU 1980:33.

‘

s

Ibid.

technologies are at different phases in their de

velopment and are being disseminated at different rates to different user groups. This

makes it difficult to characterize the consequences for employment. In predicting the effects that factory automation will have on the

Norwegian economy as a whole, the working

group argued that continuous process and

electronics industries have a greater potential

for productivity gains than does the metalworking industry. Although firms may imple

ment the new technologies, given the small

and medium size of Norwegian firms it was

predicted that the benefits will be limited.

Canada

Federal Support for Technology-Enhanced

Productivity Program

CAN$10 million ($8 million) over 5 years has

been committed to 10 microelectronics centers

through the Federal STEP (Support for Technology-Enhanced Productivity) program. The

STEP program is intended to help producers

of microelectronics and advanced production

equipment to develop products that will be

competitive in international markets. It is also

intended to help users implement the technology efficiently and develop new and improved

products for the Canadian economy.

STEP incentives for producers include reimbursement of:

● up to 75 percent of eligible expenditures

on R&D,

“ up to 50 percent of eligible costs of machinery and equipment, and

● up to- 15 percent

buildings.

STEP incentives for

bursement for:

of eligible costs of

users include reim-

●

●

feasibility studies-up to 100 percent of

total costs, with a maximum of CAN

$10,OOO ($8,000);

implementation of a new microelectronic

product or process—up to CAN$1OO,OOO

($80,000) or 75 percent of total costs; and
.—.—- . . —

Ch. 9—International Support for Programmable Automation ● 361

● design of custom microelectronic equipment—up to CAN$500,000 ($400,000) or

75 percent of total costs.86

Manpower Consultative Service—

Education and Retraining

The Department of Employment and Immigration established the Manpower Consultative Service, a key mechanism for aiding workers displaced for economic, technological, or

other reasons. The Service provides assistance

to employers who work with their employees

to reduce manpower levels or develop work

force skills. In particular, it operates on an asneeded basis, becoming involved when mass

layoffs are expected to occur, and supplementing local labor market institutions for brief

(e.g., 6- to 12-month) periods.

The Manpower Consultative Service was

founded in 1963 to encourage labor and management to work together on problems of

worker displacement. The Service has a program whereby management and labor consult

as equal partners in committees on matters of

mutual concern, such as turnover, employment instability, working conditions, absenteeism, training requirements, and management studies. It provides up to 50 percent of

the cost of the labor adjustment committee,

and up to 50 percent of worker relocation costs

if a committee transfers workers in order to

keep them employed. Where new technology

is the cause of displacement, the committees

look at the impact on skill needs and try to

develop means of counseling, retraining, and

placement for those who are displaced. Both

industrial training for work on new machinery or new job content and institutional training in trade schools are provided. In addition,

subsidies are provided for older workers to

train for new jobs. Companies do not always

participate in the MCS program, as they are

required to continue to pay the workers’ fringe

benefits during the transition period.87

“’The News From BILD, Ontario, ” February 1983; and

“Building Ontario in the 1980’ s,” BILD, January 1981.

“Harry Monk, Employment and Immigration Department

of Canada, personal communication, Dec. 9, 1983; and M. Bendick, Jr., “The Role of Public Program and Private Markets

in Reemploying Workers Dislocated by Economic Change, ” The

Urban Institute, November 1982.

The Ontario Board of Industrial

Leadership and Development

The government of the Province of Ontario

established the Board of Industrial Leadership

and Development (BILD) in January 1981,

comprised of cabinet ministers responsible for

economic and regional development. It develops long-term investment strategies for the

Ontario Government and funds programs

through grants, loans, and other forms of assistance. The BILD program is budgeted at

CAN$l.5 billion ($1.2 billion) over a 5-year

period. Overall objectives of the BILD program are to develop an import replacement

and export potential in order to improve Ontario’s trade balance, technological development, training, and job creation.

The Board of Industrial Leadership and Development has recognized that new specialized

skills will be required with the implementation

of computer-assisted manufacturing. Under

the Training in Business and Industry program, BILD subsidizes up to one-third of the

cost of retraining workers, with the remainder

paid by the worker and the employer. BILD

also provides equipment grants to educational

facilities, research grants, and career counseling services.

Under its high-technology development program, BILD has allocated CAN$1OO million

($80 million) to five industry-oriented technology centers to provide expertise to companies

applying new technologies. The five centers

are described below:88

● The Ontaio Centre for Advanced Manufacturing. —This center has two facilities; one

for CAD and CAM in Cambridge, and one

for robotics in Peterborough. Funding will

be CAN$40 million ($32 million) over 5

years, beginning in 1983. These facilities

will provide consultation services for the implementation of CAD and CAM and robotics, and will help individual firms tailor the

technology to their needs.

● The Ontario Centre for Microelectromics. —

This center, located in Ottawa, will receive

CAN$20 million ($16 million) over 5 years.

The center was opened on October 28, 1982.

“Brochure, “The News from BILD, Ontario, ” February 1983.
362 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

●

●

●

The Ontario Centre for Automotive Parts

Technology.– This center was established

in order to encourage restructuring of the

auto industry. CAN$14.5 million ($11.6 million) will be provided over 5 years for development of new product designs, market

research, and management information

services. The center was opened on December 14, 1982.

The Ontario Centre for Resource Machinery.–This center will receive CAN$20 million ($16 million) to undertake R&D for the

mining and forestry-equipment industries.

The center was opened on December 15,

1982.

The Ontario Centre for Farm Equipment

and Food Processing. -This cent~r will receive CAN$10 million ($8 million) over 5

years to undertake R&D. The center was

opened on January 31, 1983.

Italy

Italy appears to have no specific policy to

protect targeted industries or promote the

movement of resources out of particular industries. However, the Italian Government owns

a large share of certain industries (nuclear

power, electrical components, telecommunications equipment, chemicals, steel, and shipbuilding) and financial institutions. The State

has intervened in the economy with aid to industry in the postwar period, without an overall “industrial policy.”

Most notable in Italy has been the government promotion of private investment in the

underdeveloped southern regions. Investment

grants, low interest loans, and tax breaks have

been provided to private firms to encourage

investment in the South, and Stateowned

firms have been required to invest in the

South. Such investment has been encouraged

in order to develop this region and provide

employment to avoid the migration of Southern Italians to Northern Italy.89

“Lawrence Franko, European Industrial Policy: Past, Present, and Future, the Conference Board in Europe, February

1980, p. 34.

The U.S. Robotic Industries Association

(RIA) estimates Italy is the fifth largest robot

producer but may become the third, after Japan and the United States, by 1990.90 Robot

use in Italy is particularly heavy in automobile

manufacturing. Fiat, for example, is both a

major user and developer of robotic systems.

Olivetti, an office equipment manufacturer, is

also heavily involved with PA.

The National Machine Tool Builders’ ASSO

ciation estimates that Italy ranks fifth in machine tool production and third in machine tool

exports, as of 1982.91 There are close research

ties among machine tool producer firms, and

between producers and the Government. Research projects on manufacturing are sponsored by a financial agency (IMI) which channels low interest loans and Governmentfunded grants to small and medium-sized

firms. The Italian National Council of

Research has also begun a manufacturing

research program which involves several

Italian universities and industries.

The Netherlands

While the Netherlands is neither a major

user nor producer of PA technologies, the

Dutch are increasingly concerned with “catching up” in the development and application of

PA. Industrial productivity is a source of

great concern to the Dutch because 64 percent

of industrial output is exported. There is concern, however, that automation could lead to

a loss of industrial jobs. A study by the Netherlands Center for Technology Trends concluded that the gains in productivity that

could be achieved by increased automation

would outweigh the labor displacement because low productivity has made it difficult

for Dutch products to compete with those of

low-wage developing countries.92

The Dutch have several programs promoting or regulating the production and use of

PA:

‘RIA, Worldwide Robotics Survey and Directory, 1983.

91Natio~~Mac~eT~l Bufiderg’ Association, 1983-1984

Economic Handbook of the Machine Tool Industry.

9z1 H. Timem~, Automatjsering in De Fabriek: Vertrekpun~en Voor Beleid, Delft University Press, 1983.
Ch. 9—Internafional Support for Programmable Automation ● 363

— . — ——.—.

●

●

The Ministry of Education and Science

Policy and the Ministry of Economic Affairs launched an R&D program in Octo- ●

ber 1982 aimed at improving technological expertise and research potential at the

technological universities. ●

The Ministry of Economic Affairs is preparing a program for stimulating the PA

industry. This program will include an

awareness promotion campaign, provide

subsidies and low interest loans to industry to promote investment in PA, and

sponsor demonstration projects.

The Ministry of Social Affairs will monitor employment and working environment impacts.

The Ministry of Education and Science

Policy, the Ministry of Economic Affairs,

and the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research will administer

education, training, and retraining

programs.
Chapter 10

Policy Issues and Options
Contents

Page

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................,..367

Stakeholders. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............368

The Reasons for a Federal Role.... . ..............................369

The Challenge ofNew Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... ... ....370

Federal Policy Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... ... ..37I

Existing Federal Policy and Options for New Initiatives .. .. ... ... ... ..373

Existing Federal Policy for Technology Development and Use. . .......373

Options for Technology Development and Diffusion Policy. ... ... .., ..374

Existing Federal Employment Policy (Excluding Training). . ..........376

options for Employment Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .............381

Existing Federal Work Environment Policies . ......................386

Options for Work Environment Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........387

Existing Federal Education, Training, and Retraining Policy. . ........391

Options for Education, Training and Retraining Policy . . . . . . . . . . . .. .393

Table

Table No. Page

75. Sensitivity of Estimated Numbers of Dislocated Workers in

January 1983 to Alternative Eligibility Standards and

Economic Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...................385
Chapter 10

Policy Issues and Options

Introduction

The central policy question that emerges

from OTA’S computerized manufacturing automation assessment is, “Should there be a national strategy for the development and use of

programmable automation (PA)?” Although

such a strategy could take many forms, the

fact that the opportunities and problems

posed by programmable automation are interconnected makes it appropriate to consider a

policy strategy combining actions in several

areas. PA may well become an important factor in national productivity growth and improvement in economic performance, but the

spread of this technology can aggravate existing social and economic problems as well as

create new ones for individual regions and for

the Nation as a whole. While the potential for

PA to benefit industry and the economy counteracts arguments for slowing its spread, the

risks inherent in rapid diffusion raise questions about whether, and how, the spread of

PA should be accelerated. Among the principal motivations for policy are:

The immaturity of PA technology and

limited experience with its application.

Although current technology is applicable

in many situations, further development

and applications experience are needed

before its potential for improving productivity, work environment, and product

quality can be fully realized.

The competitive environment in which

PA development and use are taking place.

Governments in countries that are or may

become U.S. trading partners are encouraging the development and use of PA

abroad, while markets for many goods

and services, including PA equipment and

systems, are becoming increasingly international. Both situations militate against

complacency.

●

●

●

The risk of growth in unemployment. In

the absence of growth in production levels, PA maybe associated with unemployment, especially in the East North Central, Middle Atlantic, and other areas

where PA use is expected to be heavy, and

where local economies are vulnerable to

import competition and other economic

factors.

The risk of adverse effects on the psychological aspects of the work environment.

These effects, arising from the combined

influences of new technology and job design, may not only diminish productivity

gains from PA, but may constitute new

health problems. Collective bargaining

will allow only a fraction of the labor force

to resolve these problems on their own.

Because PA and structural changes in the

economy will limit the number and range

of manufacturing jobs available, many

workers will become less able to move out

of disagreeable situations.

The ramifications for education, training,

and retraining at all levels. The appropriateness of the mix of skills within the labor force governs both the rate at which

PA can be developed and used, and the

extent of adjustment (through retraining

or relocation) that maybe necessary given

changing skill requirements. The challenges posed by PA and other new technologies come at a time when the capacities and resources of the instructional

system are particularly strained.

As the above list indicates, there are factors

that motivate policy promoting PA (technological immaturity and international competition) and factors that militate against

accelerating PA adoption or that support complementary policy in other areas (the risks of

367
368 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

. — — ——— ——

worsening unemployment and work environments and the need to assure appropriate

instructional capacities). Furthermore, concerns raised by PA are also aspects of larger

policy problems. Competitiveness and unemployment, for example, reflect many circumstances, not just use of new technology. Assuaging these concerns, in particular, requires

a healthy economy—something that PA can

influence but not guarantee.

The remaining portions of this chapter will

identify key groups of people with an interest

in the use and impacts of PA and define existing and potential Federal roles. The chapter

next adresses overall strategy for policy regarding PA. Then, current programs in the

areas of technology development and use,

work environment, employment, and education and training are outlined, and options for

new policy are presented. The final four sections illustrate the types of policy that have

emerged from more or less independent policymaking in each area, and they relate to existing legislation those options that could be

combined into integrated strategies.

Stakeholders

Not surprisingly, the broad set of issues surrounding the spread of PA has aroused concern among a diverse group of stakeholders.

Solving the problems associated with PA and

realizing its potential benefits to the Nation

will involve balancing the interests of the various players. Six principal groups are concerned about the shape of policy relating to

programmable automation.

First, there are the developers and producers

of PA, including the research community in

both the public and private sectors and the

manufacturers and vendors of PA equipment

and systems. Engineers, computer scientists,

and others in industry, academia, research institutions, and government are involved in de

veloping, refining, and applying PA. As a

group, they are concerned principally with the

technical performance attributes of PA technologies; they tend to treat effects on the use

of labor or the work environment as consequences rather than initial considerations. PA

developers and producers are interested in the

adequacy of funding and facilities for their

work. They are also interested in the sources

of funding and goals of R&D. PA manufacturers and vendors seek business climates that

support the sale and effective use of PA.

Second, there are the purchasers and users

of PA. Managers of manufacturing firms

make decisions about research activity and the

nature and type of equipment used in production. Concern with their ability to compete

with other companies, especially foreign firms,

translates into concerns for production efficiency, costs for labor and capital, product de

sign, production processes, whether to make

or buy components, and where to locate production. They consider a broad range of human resource issues, from job descriptions,

hiring, promotion, and layoffs; to the scope

and quality of education and training in local

communities and the extent of training their

firms offer; to labor-management relations and

the scope of managerial control. As a group,

they resist (and protest) Government intervention in production and personnel areas, while

they call for better business climates.

Third, there are the current and future

members of the labor force. These individuals

care about whether they can get and keep jobs,

and what kinds of jobs are open to them—by

occupation and industry, by compensation

level, and by degree of job security. They also

care about the work environment implications

of PA utilization, the type and location of PA

applications, and trends in job design. And,

they care about the amount, cost, quality, and

sources of education and training available.

Some labor force concerns are articulated by

labor organizations (including unions), which

are concerned in part with the potential for

new technology to diminish their membership

by reducing job opportunities in manufacturing or shifting them away from unionized industries. Unions have already begun to address various workplace concerns through

collective bargaining and other activities.

However, only about a fifth of the labor force

currently can influence job design, job secu-
Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options ● 369

—

rity, and training through collective bargaining. Hence, much of the current and future labor force lacks focused representation of their

concerns, and this group may be the least well

represented in private or public debates over

PA and relevant policy.

Fourth, there are communities and state

and local governments. These groups are particularly concerned about economic development and maintaining their employment

bases. Because some communities depend on

manufacturing for employment, and because

they administer and fund education and training activities at least at lower levels, communities care about the rate and extent of PA

production and use, along with associated

changes in skill requirements, job mix, and instruction~ needs. Even though individual

companies may adjust their work forces without layoffs (through attrition), decreases in

company hiring may cause or aggravate employment and business problems for the local

economy. Declines in employment and business levels may in turn give rise to a variety

of problems for communities that range from

increased health disorders to diminished tax

revenues.

Fifth, there are educators and trainers. People who teach children and adolescents base

curricula in part on expectations about employment opportunities and job design. People who teach adults also care about changes

in skill requirements and industry hiring patterns; their planning and activities are especially sensitive to the rate of change, because

the number of adult students is more subject

to change than the number of younger students. Educators and trainers of all types are

concerned about the funding, equipment, and

facilities available to them. Currently, their

concerns are likely to be heightened by the barrage of potentially confecting demands and

criticisms from numerous sources.

Sixth and finally, there is the Federal

Government. Existing Federal programs suggest that the Government has broad interests

in the development and use of PA. On the

military side, the Government is concerned

with the implications of PA development and

use for national security and for reducing costs

for defense products. On the civilian side, the

Government has several concerns: It is concerned about levels of productivity, industrial

well-being, and economic growth, which influence the standard of living of U.S. citizens; it

is concerned about employment levels, which

influence the income distribution, tax revenues, and expenditures for aid to individuals

and regions; and it is concerned about equity

issues, from occupational safety and health to

the balance of power between labor and management. The Federal Government thus represents the interests of the Nation as a whole.

The Reasons for a Federal Role

Existing Federal programs reveal ample

precedent for Federal involvement in the development and use of PA. In particular (and

as described in more detail below), the U.S.

Government already has a major role in funding PA research and development, and it offers tax incentives for capital investment that

may motivate adoption of PA and other equipment. Moreover, it is involved in study and

regulation of occupational safety and health

impacts generally; it measures employment

trends and relates them in limited degree to

technological and economic developments; and

it funds and shapes education, training, and

retraining activities.

Both the nature of existing programs, and

the fact that some of the benefits and costs

of PA will accrue to the Nation as a whole, also

suggest that the Federal Government has a

stake in the diffusion of PA. The level of activity in PA production, for example, is a national

issue. There is a limit to the amount of PA production the U.S. economy will support (even

with low levels of imports and substantial exports). While policy at the State level fostering “high-tech” industrial activity may involve competition for a limited number of

facilities, only Federal policy can affect the

level of PA production nationwide. Also, international technological leadership, and its

implications for national security, is a Federal
370 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

concern; at issue are goals and conditions that

transcend the interests and resources of individual companies, researchers, employees,

and States.

Furthermore, there are equity issues which

the Federal Government is best suited to address. First, adjustment assistance-whether

in the form of extended unemployment compensation payments and other types of income

maintenance, retraining, or relocation assistance-has long been a Federal responsibilit y.

If PA or other influences, such as rising import levels, have adverse employment effects,

the Federal Government will eventually pay

to take care of individuals unable on their own

to adjust to changing job opportunities. Second, work environment impacts seem to be

social costs, like pollution, which market activity on its own not control.* The labor

market may be particularly ill-suited to handle both employment and work environment

problems arising from PA in coming years for

several reasons. In particular, the relatively

slow rates of net jobgrowth that economists

expect will reduce the numbers of choices

available to jobseekers. Also, fear of dis- — . —

According to Ruth Ruttenberg, former OSHA ecnomist,

“Occupational safety and health has become a public policy

issue precisely because the economic system has failed to

achieve an adequate solution the problem of workplace hazards. ” “Regulation and the Economist,”The New York ‘Times,

NOV. 20, 1983.

**whil e the economy will experience post-recessionary job

growth, strong import competition a high Federal deficit, slow

population growth, and other factors are expected to constrain

placement and limited union representation

will diminish opportunities for workers to negotiate with management about working conditions or to seek other employment if dissatisfied. If industry does not move to alleviate

adverse effects on the work environment, the

Federal Government is in the best position to

.

do SO.

Finally, only the Federal Government is in

a position to coordinate policy initiatives

across a broad range of areas. The problem of

coordination is not-trivial. Current-programs,

which lack formal coordination, implicitly favor some interests over others by virtue of the

allocation of funds and the breadth of participation in developing program objectives. Specifically, present programs (described in detail

below) appear to favor the interests of PA de

velopers-fid producers, and to a lesser extent,

the users and their employees. For example,

one Federal official involved with new-technology programs remarked to an OTA staff member, “I’m putting people out of work. Am I

supposed to worry-about that?” While present policy allows programs to remain separate

and parochial, only the Federal Government

is empowered to ‘assure that programs designed to address one area of national interest

do not conflict with other national interests.

economic growth. See, for example: Alfred L. Malabre, Jr.,

“Some Economists Fear Room for Expansion is Less Than It

Appears;” and Alan Murray, “Growing U.S. Trade Gap is

Linked to Slowdown in Economic Growth. ” Both in The Wall

Street Journal, Feb. 17, 1984.

The Challenge of New Policy

The diversity of issues and interested parties surrounding policy related to programmable automation suggests that Congress

consider action in a variety of areas. However,

in developing new policy, it is important to

consider the context for actions in different

arenas.

OTA’S analysis suggests that the area where

PA itself may motivate the greatest departure

from past Federal policy is work environment.

Because PA will eventually affect the work environment of most manufacturing personnel,

especially in metalworking industries, and

because it poses new problems pertaining to
—.

Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options ● 371

———. ——

the psychological aspects of the work environment, the technology raises questions about

the adequacy of existing mechanisms for studying, monitoring, and regulating conditions in

the work environment. While this report only

considers effects on the manufacturing work

environment, the growing use of computer

technologies across the economy may triggel

similar concerns in other sectors.

By contrast, while OTA’S analysis suggests

new directions for Federal policy in employment

and training it it suggest that PA-motivatd

initiatives be related to broader forces for

change in those areas. In the area of education,

training, and retraining OTA found that only

some of the ramifications of PA could be isolated from the effects of increased use of new

information and communication technologies

generally across the economy. New technologies will affect goals for instruction at all

levels, raising fundamental questions about

educational objectives and the structure of the

educational system. At the same time, shifts

in the employment capacities of different industries (not necessarily due to new technology) may pose problems of obsolescent

skills for specific occupational groups or local

labor forces. These individuals, concentrated

among production occupations, have special

instructional needs largely unmet by the instructional system. Meanwhile, to minimize

the risk of skills obsolescence in the future, it

may be necessary to make fundamental changes

in educational curricula and institutions,

changes that better prepare individuals for labor market contingencies.

In considering employment policy, the principal problem associated with PA is how to

minimize unemployment due to labor-saving

technology and cope with employment adjustment without going so far as to postpone economic change and bring on problems far worse

than might otherwise have occurred. Unfortunately, this cannot easily be achieved by

shifting people from jobs among PA users to

jobs among PA producers. PA producer jobs

will continue to be fewer and much more

“white collar” than typical manufacturing

jobs have been. Moreover, because unemployment cannot generally be attributed to specific

technologies, the “PA employment problem”

is really the broader employment problem

faced by the country as many factors, including growing import competition, are altering

the employment potentials of different industries.

OTA’S analysis also suggests that issues pertaining to PA development and use reflect broad

policy concerns for technology development and

transfer. PA provides tools for improving manufacturing processes and competitive strategies, but thorough evaluation of manufacturing processes, organization, and management,

as well as more attention to competitive conduct (including product designs, pricing, and

responsiveness to consumers), are necessary

if companies are to make the most effective

choice and use of any technology. There are

many aspects of PA that require further development, but OTA found little evidence of

critical research areas left unexplored, or that

manufacturers were hindered from adopting

PA because of insufficient technological development. Of greater immediate concern is the

application of the technology. Timing is an important consideration for PA adoption because

productivity improvement and other benefits

of more efficient equipment and systems tend

to lag their installation.

Federal Policy Strategies

The orchestration of policy initiatives in different areas may be considered a policy strategy. If the Federal Government chooses to coordinate activities in the areas of technology

development and use, employment, work environment, and instruction, it can pursue one of

four basic strategies: 1) laissez-faire, or a continuation of current activities; 2) technology-oriented, or emphasis on PA development

and application; 3) human resource-oriented,

or upfront attention to education and training, work environment, and job creation; or 4)
372 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

both technology- and human resource-oriented. In each case, adjustment assistance

may be required some time after the adoption

of PA, though to varying degrees.*

The outcomes of Federal action can be evaluated accordirg to likely effects on industrial

output, employment, work environment, and

change in adjustment assistance programs.

The principal uncertainties that cloud projections of change are: 1) the rate of advance of

the technology, i.e., the likelihood that the

state of the art will advance far beyond what

is currently expected during this decade; and

2) the relative success of efforts abroad to

develop or apply PA and to increase sales

penetration in domestic and foreign markets.

Another major uncertainty is economic growth.

A stagnant economy creates numerous problems which are best addressed directly, rather

than through “PA policy, ” although initiatives discussed in this chapter may support

a healthy economy. Federal action can influence all of these uncertainties.

The success of other countries in competing

with U.S. firms (whether due to PA or not) can

be a principal cause of lower industrial output

and employment for the country. A strategy

with at least some orientation to new technology development and use can reduce that risk,

because it can contribute to improvements in

productivity and competitiveness. However,

a strategy that is strictly technology-oriented

will probably increase the incidence of labor

market problems associated with shifting employment demands, aggravating needs for retraining and other adjustment services. Even

if greater use of PA were to make U.S. firms

decisively more competitive, some firms may

never hire to prior levels; some areas may

*The need for adjustment assistance is Ongoing it will never

disappear totally in a dynamic economy, where economic and

technological change continually create dislocations. That need

normally varies in level, by geographic region, and over time.

depend primarily on such firms; and some

individuals may have difficulty adapting to

changing skill demands. Also, a strictly technologyaiented strategy is likely to aggravate

potential work environment problems. In sum,

a strictly technology-oriented strategy would

entail upfront costs for technology development and use, but it would also entail other,

postponed costs such as increased adjustment

assistance spending.

A human resource-oriented strategy would

involve investments in evaluating skill require

ments; tailoring education, training. and retraining activities; and assisting in the matching of people with jobs. Ideally, it should avoid

growth in adjustment assistance spending due

to extended unemployment that might occur

in the wake of PA, and it may even diminish

such spending. Human resource development

does not preclude and may well facilitate the

use of PA and otherwise improve productivity.

However, its effects on industrial output levels

may not be as measurable as the effects of

technology-oriented policy. Although human

resource and technology initiatives may complement each other in influencing output and

employment, explicit human resource efforts

may be needed to address work environment

concerns, regardless of whether initiatives are

taken to accelerate PA application.

A combined technology- and human resource-oriented strategy could draw on the

complementarily of equipment and humans in

production, assuring technology development

without compromising work environment concerns. Also, it lends itself to long-term job

creation initiatives. Thus, a combined technology- and human resource-oriented strategy

could assure that human impacts are explicitly

considered in the processes of PA development

and use. While this type of strategy is the

most comprehensive and balanced, it may be

the most difficult to design and implement

because it explicitly affects the broadest range

of interests.
Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options . 373

Existing Federal Policy and Options for New Initiatives

The remaining portions of this chapter outline existing Federal policy in the areas of technology development and use, employment,

work environment, and education and training. Each discussion of existing programs is

followed by a set of options for possible policymaking in each area. These options could be

combined to develop one of the strategies

outlined above.

Existing Federal Policy for

Technology Development and Use

Federal policy toward manufacturing technology for new products or production processes is piecemeal at best. Relevant programs

principally address research and development,

although both macroeconomic policies and

more specific programs, such as tax credits,

may indirectly stimulate technology change

in manufacturing by encouraging capital investment. Only in the area of defense procure

ment does the Federal Government actively

coordinate product and process technology

development and application.*

As described in detail in chapter 8, Federal

involvement in PA research and development

comprises the efforts of four primary government agencies with distinctly different mandates. The work of the Department of Defense

(DOD) and the National Aeronautics and

Space Administration is heavily missionoriented, although it may have significant

spinoffs for the commercial sector. However,

by and large the commercial markets for new

manufacturing technologies tend to trail the

Government (principally military) markets.

The National Science Foundation (NSF) funds

work of a more generic nature, and the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) performs

significant generic work in its own laboratories. NBS performs research in many areas

*Note that defense procurement technology programs described in ch. 8 are also complemented by the provisions of the

Buy America Act of 1933, which stimulates domestic production by promoting procurement of domestically made goods by

the Government.

relevant to PA, including standardization in

languages and in interfaces between computerized tools. In addition, NBS’ Automated

Manufacturing Research Facility, being constructed with DOD funding assistance, is one

of the few full-scale test beds for computer-integrated manufacturing concepts.

The Federal Government is also involved in

standard-setting. Standards in the United

States are generally developed on a voluntary

basis by vendors and consumers of specific

products. The U.S. system of voluntary compliance with these standards contrasts with

the government-enforced standards of many

other countries. The role of the Federal

Government, through NBS, is largely to follow

and facilitate standards efforts, and in some

cases perform supporting research.

Recent Legislative Proposals

Legislation has been proposed during the

first session of the 98th Congress to provide

direct support to the manufacturing sector in

the United States. Many of these proposals

include mechanisms for promoting greater

cooperation between business, labor, and

government for achieving national economic

goals; a common theme is creation of a new

institution. Such proposals include:

●

●

●

The establishment of some type of National Technology Foundation or Board

that would be charged with determining

priorities for industrial development in

the United States. It would assess the

competitive capabilities of U.S. industries

in order to direct national resources into

those areas which would improve U.S. industrial performance.

Some type of National Development

Bank to finance the long-term development of targeted industries.

The formation of a National Robot and

Automated Manufacturing Leasing Corporation, which would facilitate the leasing of PA equipment.
374 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

. A National Center for Industrial Technology, promoting dissemination of manufacturing technology information.

● Special tax incentives for purchases of

automated equipment.

Options for Technology Development

and Diffusion Policy

Research and Development

Drawing on the existing set of institutions,

Congress could act to increase PA R&D by influencing both the overall level of funding and

the distribution of funding to various agencies

and research topics. R&D contributes to the

scope and level of technology available to the

private and public sectors, and it contributes

to the position of the country as a technological leader.

However, the degree of technological leadership to which we have become accustomed in

the post-war era may not be sustainable. As

one analyst notes:

Thus, our present situation is that in many

fields, America’s earlier lonely eminence at

numerous technological frontiers has given

way to a world in which other industrial nations have attained positions close to, or at,

these same frontiers. In many ways all this

should be cause for rejoicing We are no longer

living in the readily-identifiable aftermath of

the most destructive war in history. Although

we are, perhaps understandably, preoccupied

with the more purely competitive aspects of

the situation, we need to be reminded that

companionship at the technological frontier

offers some considerable benefits as well as

costs. *

Congress could act to maximize technological leadership in part by influencing both the

overall level of Federal R&D funding and the

distribution of funding to various agencies and

research topics. The current environment for

automation R&D is relatively healthy. How-

*N. Rosenberg, Stanford University, “U.S. Technological

Leadership and Foreign Competition, ‘De te fabula narrator’?”

November 1981, mimeo, National Academy of Sciences.

ever funding for more long-term, generic research in nonmilitary application areas is relatively thin. Congress may wish to raise

funding specifically for generic research, primarily through the National Science Foundation and National Bureau of Standards. Several of the measures currently under

consideration in Congress which increase Federal funding for engineering research, overall

or for automation in particular, could serve as

a vehicle for such an increase in nonmilitary

PA research. The advantage of such a measure

is that it could fill a gap in generic engineering research which has usually been too applied for major NSF funding and too basic for

substantial industry attention. On the other

hand, some would argue that such manufacturing-related R&D is the responsibility of industry.

Congress may also wish to increase the funding of specific areas of R&D, such as standards and human factors, which could facilitate

the application of PA technologies. While a de

tailed assessment of funding allocations

among the various topics of R&D is not within

the scope of this OTA report, other studies

have begun to address this issue.;

Standards

Standards are a means of increasing the ease

of use of the technologies and encouraging

their application. The principal disadvantage

of standards proliferation is the risk that more

rapid adoption of standards may provide

short-term benefits for users but hinder future

technological innovations which could be inconsistent with the standards. However, it is

often the case that the products of a dominant

vendor become de facto standards in the market. An increased Federal role may lead to a

more reasoned choice of standard. Congress

could stimulate standard-setting activities in

‘See, for example: Research Agenda for Increasing the Use

of Computers in Design and Manufacturing, Panel on Computers in Design and Manufacturing, Manufacturing Studies

Board, National Academy of Engineering, October, 1983; “Recommendations for CAD/CAM Research Directions in the U.S., ”

Richard F. Riesenfeld, Department of Computer Science,

University of Utah, prepared for the National Science Foundation, July 23, 1982.
Ch. 10—Policy issues and Options ● 375

— .

the Federal Government by increasing or restructuring the funding of NBS, the agency

which administers Federal standards efforts.

Congress might also consider legislation

which would clarify the legal position of standards-making groups. Currently, groups which

help coordinate and oversee the intricate process of developing standards, such as professional and trade associations, can be held

responsible for antitrust violations which spe

cific standards may pose. A recent Supreme

Court decision finding against a professional

association appears to have significantly

cooled private sector standards-making efforts, and it has helped make the process more

tinwconsuming than usual.2 While it is important that standards be devised so as to minimize potential anticompetitive effects, it may

be possible to clarify the laws to reduce the

amount of time involved in establishing standards.

In addition, Congress could consider providing a more active role for the Federal Government in standards development. Congress

could direct NBS to increase its current efforts

to facilitate, coordinate, and otherwise promote standard-setting efforts. A potential

disadvantage of this option is that it would

increase the Federal role in PA markets.

Diffusion

The appropriate rate for adoption of PA

within and between industries is a subject of

contention. It depends on the rates of adoption among U.S. trading partners, the extent

of delay between invention and adoption of

new technology, and the ability of the labor

force and industries to adjust. In the past,

adoption of individual PA technologies was

slow, while it now appears to be accelerating.

Thus, there is great danger in extrapolating

from past conditions. In this context, there is

probably a degree to which PA adoption can

be facilitated without incurring excess costs.

Beyond some indefinite point, however, encouragement of the use of PA may lead to ill-

‘Amen”can Society of Mecharu”cal Engineers, Inc. v. Hydrolevel Corp., 456 U.S. 556, reh ‘g denied, 102 S. Ct. 3502 (1982).

considered applications and excessive problems for employees and communities.

Congress could facilitate the adoption of PA

by removing some of the barriers to application that have been cited by industry analysts

and spokesmen. At the most general level,

these barriers are the problems that industries

traditionally cite as a hindrance to doing business, such as high interest rates and (high)

taxes. Of course, such steps are not easy to

take, and they may have side effects, including

the creation of problems elsewhere due to the

short-run loss of tax revenues. *

More specifically, Congress could consider

legislation that would help to make relevant

information available to businesses and communities. In particular, information about the

nature of PA technologies and how their costs

and benefits differ from those of other equipment would be particularly useful. Traditional

modes of financial analysis are more suited to

conventional equipment than to PA, and in

consequence some firms have had difficulty

justifying investments in PA.** Moreover,

while trade and professional associations and

journals do provide such information, that information tends to be incomplete. Congress

could either empower a Federal agency such

as the Department of Commerce to increase

its efforts to collect and disseminate such information (e.g., through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS)), ardor foster

cooperative arrangements between Federal

agencies and relevant trade and professional

associations. By complementing existing association activities with R Federal role, Congress could assure broader participation of

— xove~~--~–onotic ~ficy in recent years has M at improving the performance of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Such

policies have included increasing depreciation allowances for

business investment in plant and equipment. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (ERTA) provided generous allowances

which were reduced somewhat in the Tax Equity and Fiscal

Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA). Despite these tax incentives, some analysts maintain that the large Federal deficit will

continue to sustain high costs for capital.

** Convention~ analyses often fail to capture changes in indirect costs, which tend to be invariant for alternative forms

of conventional equipment. PA equipment may not only affect

direct labor costs, but indirect labor, materials, and other costs

as well.
376 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

interested parties, including employees and

communities.

Also, Congress could consider sponsoring

demonstration programs, providing examples

of best practice in the areas of technology and

work environment. While PA installations in

several companies are already well-publicized

showcases, a Federal role would increase the

likelihood that work environment and employment issues are clearly addressed and linked

to the technology. On the other hand, the technology in any given installation can only represent the state of the art for a limited time

in the context of relatively rapid change in PA

costs, applications experience, and sophistication. Further, the investment and risk associated with a typical, retrofit installation of PA

is far less than that associated with, for example, a synthetic fuels plant.3 Thus, a demonstration program for these technologies may

be less cost effective than for such technologies as synthetic fuels production. This gap

may narrow, however, for large-scale experiments in computer-integrated manufacturing,

which are far more costly and risky than

“islands of automation. ”

Adoption of PA is only a partial solution to

problems faced by the manufacturing sector.

A longer term solution involves redressing the

historical inattention, both of industry and

government, to manufacturing processes, organization, and management. There is some

evidence that this is happening already in the

private sector, where international competition appears to have generated a new awareness of U.S. weaknesses. To assure that this

awareness translates into effective actions,

Congress could direct funding and effort

toward the development of engineering curricula in universities which combine manufacturing, design, and human resource management

activities, as well as research in manufacturing engineering topics.

‘See, for example, llner~ l%m Biological Processes (Washington, D. C.: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment,

OTA-E-124, July 1980). Synfuel plants have been estimated to

cost in the $2 billion to $3 billion range, while highly automated

plants in discretemanufacturing metalworking industries tend

to cost under $1 billion. Levels of both technological and financial risk are very high for synfuel plants.

Another approach with nearer term benefits

would be for Congress to foster the creation

of some form of “manufacturing institute, ”

perhaps building on the research centers already at NBS or at universities to provide a

focus for manufacturing technology, organization, and management issues. Such an institute could serve as an information clearinghouse. The National Academy of Sciences, for

example, recently recommended establishment of at least one joint DOD-U.S. machine

tool industry research center to improve flows

of information supporting defense technology

needs. 4 Yet, many observers believe that the

need for improvement in technology transfer

is greater in the civilian than in the defense

sector. An institute could serve as a think tank

serving all industries, with rotating fellowships bringing in people from throughout the

manufacturing sector. *

The advantages of a manufacturing institute would depend on its structure and mandate. A potential disadvantage of an institute

would be that it could become just another

layer in a complex network of Federal and

private organizations. Also, the designation

of formal coordination requirements could

freeze the extensive networking that already

occurs informally. However, a Federal presence could assure broader participation in the

networking process.

Existing Federal Employment Policy

(Excluding Training)

The United States already has a variety of

Federal employment programs and legislation.

Most of the key pieces of legislation emerged

during the Depression era. Excluding educa4Manufacturing Studies Board, Committee on the Machine

Tool Industry, The U.S. Machine Tool Industry and the Dc+

fense 1ndustn”al Base, National Academy Press, 1983-84.

*The Natio~ Science Foundation has proposed a new pr@

gram for 1985 to create five to ten centers for interdisciplinary

engineering reeearch. While these centers are in some ways similar to manufacturing “institutes,” the relatively modest level

of funding ($10 million for all five h ten centers), and the fact

that they will not necessarily address topics related to manufacturing, indicates that they will not be likely to substantially

change the historical U.S. inattention to manufacturing engineering.
—-——

Ch. 10—PoIIcY Issues and Options . 377

tion and training programs, which are described later in this chapter, existing Federal

employment policy covers four broad categories: 1) the development and distribution of

labor-market information, 2) income maintenance for the unemployed, 3) labor standards,

and 4) job creation.

Most Federal employment programs are oriented toward unemployment of relatively

short duration, generally what is referred to

as cyclical unemployment. Also, over the past

two decades, Federal employment policy has

come to focus on aiding disadvantaged groups

of people (defined as low-income, or chronically

un- or under-employed). Consequently, current

programs are not designed to accommodate

the more enduring unemployment that may

befall individuals and communities given wide

spread technological change, growing import

competition, and long-term shifts in consumer

buying patterns-unemployment generally re

ferred to as structural unemployment.

Compared to most European countries and

Japan, labor market policy in the United

States is reactive and uncoordinated, and it

is not linked to other, industry-oriented programs for structural adjustment in the national economy. Since several recent reports

by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and

the Congressional Research Service (CRS) examine Federal employment policy in detail,

this assessment will address key features and

refer the reader to other analyses for more

information.

Legislation

Major employment policy in general evolved

from the following pieces of legislation: The

Wagner Peyser Act of 1933 established a free,

public U.S. Employment Service (USES).

USES (now called the Job Service in some

States) comprises a StateFederal network of

job listing and placement services. Unlike its

foreign counterparts, however, USES does not

have legal monopoly on job referrals, power

to regulate competing private employment

agencies, or power to compel its use by employers (except for Federal contractors).

Because of these limitations, during the postWorld War II era, USES became an outlet for

relatively low-skilled, disadvantaged individuals. This occurred through the proliferation

of specialized, private employment agencies

which tended to serve relatively high-skilled

personnel; the combined burdens of budget

cuts and labor force growth; and the effects

of a policy shift in the late 1960’s which emphasized disadvantaged workers and which re

quired USES and Unemployment Insurance

(see below) officials to assist in the administration of public assistance programs. Since

the 1960’s, employers and employees have associated USES with welfare programs. Private

employers consequently tend not to list openings with USES, except for lower skill, high

turnover jobs. Thus, despite reforms and the

development of computerized job banks, the

USES has continued to play a marginal role

in the labor market. b

The Soaal Security Act of 1935 established

the Unemployment Insurance (UI) system. It

is a program administered by a Federal-State

network of agencies which now covers most

of the labor force. UI provides eligible persons

with funds that replace up to 50 to 70 percent

of their wages for 26 weeks. Associated extended benefits (EB) and Federal supplemental compensation (FSC) programs provide additional money over longer periods of time.

Funds are generated by employer and employee contributions and disbursed through State

agencies, with emergency allocations awarded

on occasion by Congress. Labor-market analysts generally consider these and other

payroll taxes incentives for employers to lay

off personnel if business declines; the availability of unemployment compensation, together with the customary rehiring of laid-off

personnel as business conditions improve, is

generally considered to retard job-search efforts among the unemployed. However, the

U.S. program has significantly lower wage-re5The role of the USES and contrasts with its counterparts

abroad are discussed in a monograph by Mike Podgursky of

the University of Massachusetts (Amherst), entitled “Labor

Market Policy and Structural Adjustment, ” Apr. 1, 1983.
378 “ Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workp/ace

placement rates than Japan, Germany, France,

and Sweden.” *

Some countries provide public assistance

to the long-term unemployed who have exhausted their UI benefits, and many European

countries provide “short-time” (part-time or

pro-rated) benefits to allow worksharing

among firms and industries with reduced labor

requirements. Some States, such as California,

have recently begun similar worksharing programs. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 called for the Department

of Labor to develop model worksharing legislation for States.

The Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938

(FLSA) provides specific standards for wages

(including a minimum wage and overtime

rates) and hours of work. It also prohibits child

labor. FLSA covers primarily non-professional

and managerial personnel. While collective

bargaining in unionized settings provides a

means of assuring that wages and working

conditions are adequate, FLSA provides protections in the form of minimum standards for

wages and hours for all workers.** It was intended, in part, to prevent individual State

economies from profiting in trade with other

States through lower labor costs obtained by

low pay a.dor long hours. According to observers, however, monitoring and enforcement

of labor standards in nonunion workplaces

tends to be limited. FLSA is complemented

by other pieces of legislation governing wages

and hours of personnel employed by companies doing business with the Federal Government. Those include the Walsh-Healy Act, the

Service Contract Act, the Davis-Bacon Act,

and the Federal Work Hours Act (which set

the 8-day, 40-hour week as standard).

The Employment Act of 1946 established a

Federal interest in the adequacy of employ-

‘ibid. Also, note that research by James Jondrow of the Cenkr for Naval Analyses suggests that nonremunerative personnel costs (about half of which are fixed, mostly federally mandated or training-related) may account for about 23 percent of manufacturing employment costs.

*FOr more information on UI, see the mdytis by cBO entitled “Unemployment Insurance: Financial Condition and Options for Change, ” June 1983.

XXFLSA di~courage9 , but does not pro~bit,, overtime.

ment opportunities. The Full Employment

Act of 1978 expanded on the principles of the

1946 act, requiring that the President develop

economic policy consistent with the achieve

ment of full employment. Despite these legislative efforts to promote planning for the

medium and long k-m, most employment policy and economic policy (fiscal and monetary)

has focused on short-term objectives.*

Additional Programs

The legislation described above provides the

framework for Federal labor market policy.

Additional Federal programs aim at creating

jobs, developing labor market information,

and providing adjustment assistance beyond

the UI income support program.

Job Creation. -Federal job creation activities fall into two categories. First, various

macroeconomic policies aim to improve employment opportunities by stimulating aggre

gate demand (buying of various goods and

services by all types of consumers) and production activity. The effect of such policies is indirect; relevant measures target interest rates,

inflation, money supply, and disposable personal income, which in turn affect production

and consumption activities by lowering costs

and increasing budgets. While fiscal and

monetary policy can aim for long-term economic growth, steps tend to be taken to improve short-term prospects as the business

cycle changes. Macroeconomic policy is some

times complemented by specific, short-term

programs, such as the Public Service Employment Program of the late 1970’s and various

public works initiatives. Public works initiatives are recurrent themes in jobs legislation

because of their countercyclical employment

potential as well as their obvious appeal to

constituents in affected areas. The Emergency

Supplemental Appropriations for Jobs Act of

1983, for example, provided funds for a variety of public works projects. Public works programs can be designed to employ relatively

*The development and aftermath of these laws are descri~

in detail in a recent CRS analysis, “The Employment Act of

1946, as Amended, and the Opportunity for Economic Planning: The Federal Government’s Response, ’ Feb. 4, 1982.
—.

Ch. 10—Po/icy /ssues and Options . 379

high- or low-skilled personnel, although construction projects tend to employ relatively

high-skilled personnel.

A more focused program is the Targeted

Jobs Tax Credit program. This program, initiated in 1978,* and amended by the Economic

Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the Tax Equity

and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982, aims

at job creation for economically disadvantaged

groups. It provides employers with a percent

of the earnings of a new hire in the form of a

tax credit. The program has two principal

shortcomings: First, there is a risk that employers will be paid for jobs that they would

have created anyway. Recent modifications to

the program are believed to have lessened this

risk. Second, the program only applies to those

firms that have tax liabilities, because the

credit is nonrefundable.**

Labor-Market Information. –Various programs aim to generate labor-market information (LMI), although the Federal role in this

area has been decreasing. The Department of

Labor aWsters the Federal-State LMI program through the Employment and Training

Administration, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and the State Employment Security Agency (SESA) LMI units. The National

Occupational Information Coordinating Committee (NOICC) and the related State committee (SOICC) network provide coordination,

cooperation, and communication in developing occupational information. BLS, in particular, provides information on aggregate, industry, and occupational employment and wage

patterns.

Because BLS has experienced sharp budget

cuts during the current administration, it has

cut back on the volume and precision of the

information it publishes. For example, because

the sample size for the Current Population Statistics survey has been reduced, results for

small areas (including the smallest States) and

‘–*it sud~ the NeW Jobs Tax Credit enacted in May 1977.

**TheW cr~t9 we diSCUSS ed in a recent analysis by CRS,

entitled “Jobs Legislation in the 98th Congress” (Issue Brief

IB83059).

minority groups are less accurate;* the elimination of the labor turnover survey means the

loss of a leading indicator of manufacturing

expansion and contraction; the elimination of

the multiple jobholder supplement survey

means the loss of a measure of the income ade

quacy of certain types of jobs; the elimination

of the Family Budget program means the loss

of a measure of economic conditions; and the

cutbacks in the economic growth, productivity, and occupational outlook programs mean

the loss of detailed insights into the changing

deployment of labor in the economy.**

Adjustment Assistance. -Fina.Uy, in addition to the general employment programs

listed above, the United States also has more

focused adjustment programs. Prominent

among them is the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program, launched by the Trade

Expansion Act of 1962 and modified on several occasions, which has been the principal

source of aid for displaced workers. The United

States is unique among developed countries

in distinguishing import-based displacement

from other sources; European and Japanese

programs encompass persons displaced by a

variety of factors, such as new technology.

Eligibility for TAA is limited to those who can

demonstrate that they were displaced as a result of imports, although the strictness of the

test has varied.

Due to strict eligibility criteria, TAA disbursements were negligible until the act was

amended in 1974. During the 1970’s, critics

faulted the program for delays in providing

assistance, for emphasizing compensation

over active adjustment assistance, for funding

people who eventually returned to their original employer, and for narrowly designating

who was affected by imports (e.g., prime manufacturers but not firms whose principal busi-

——— xs~pling ~d inferenCe9 for minority grOuPS have ~WaYS

been suspect; the =ent cutbacka aggravate a nonoptimal

situation. XXThe natwe ~d r~fication~ of the9e Cutbackg me ~~

scribed in a detailed analysis of Federal statistical programs

prepti by CRS, entitled “~cent Changes in the Statistical

Activity of the Federal Government, ” June 2, 1982.
380 . computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

ness was supplying them). For example, the

General Accounting Office found that relative

ly few TAA participants used the relocation

assistance feature, principally because participants were either unaware of the program

or uninterested in it. The 1981 amendments

(through the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation

Act) again revised the eligibility test, making

imports a “substantial cause” of job loss,

while the 1982 amendments specified that imports should have “contributed importantly”

to job loss. The 1982 legislation provided very

little funding, and the simple 2-year extension

of the program enacted in October 1983 provided no funding. * 7

There have been several Federal programs

legislated to provide compensation and\or

other assistance to select groups of people in

the event of job loss resulting from Federal

actions. These include the Redwoods Act of

1978 (compensating for job loss associated

with the expansion of the Redwoods National

Park), the Rail Passenger Services Act of 1970

and the Rational Rail Reorganization Act of

1978 (compensating for job loss associated

with the rationalization of the national railroad

system following the financial collapse of several railroads), the Airline Deregulation Act

of 1978 (compensating for job loss associated

with the deregulation of passenger airlines),

and the Department of Defense’s Economic

Adjustment Program (compensating for job

loss associated with changing defense spending and siting decisions). Some analysts might

also add such Federal efforts as the loan to the

Lockheed Corp. and the loan guarantees to the

Chrysler Corp. during the 1970’s as special

programs aimed at averting massive unemployment (among other goals). And, there are

various efforts providing preferential

assistance to veterans (whose career devel-

● several recent CRS and CBO publications address TAA, See,

for example, the CRS paper, “Unemployment Compensation

and Trade Adjustment Assistance: Changes Made by the 97th

Congress, ” NOV. 23, 1982.

‘see “Current National Development%” Employment and

Traim”ng Repcr@, Oct. 5, 1983; and “New Law Qualifies More

for ‘TAA’, ‘UI’, ” Employment and 7’rm”nzhg Reporter, Nov. 3,

1982.

opment is at least interrupted by military

service).

There are also programs targeted toward

specific areas, such as the Defense Manpower

Policy #4, which encourages defense contracts

to be awarded to labor-surplus areas. The Area

Redevelopment Act and its progeny also stimulated economic activity in specific areas, in

part to promote employment. Current interest

in enterprise zones, favored by the Reagan administration, also focuses on area development

to stimulate employment.

Recent Legislative Proposals

A variety of employment bills were intro

duced during the first session of the 98th Congress. The number and content of the bills reflect the strong concern about high levels of

unemployment, and uncertainty as to the duration of those levels. One bill (S. 1286, the

Manufacturing Sciences and Technology Research and Development Act of 1983) appears

to have linked the development of new technology with work force adjustment. That bill

directed the Secretary of Labor to devise experimental programs for retraining “displaced

workers” to facilitate the utilization of advanced manufacturing technology. Other recent legislative proposals regarding employment include:

●

●

●

●

●

●

establishment of a system of tax credits

for employers who hire individuals eligible for FSC payments, or provide tax

credits for people hiring for businesses in

enterprise zones;

establishment of public works programs

of either specified or indeterminate

duration;

activities to stimulate employment of

specific groups, including senior citizens,

railroad employees, and employees of relatively small defense contractors;

reform of immigration laws and procedures, which would influence the supply

of labor to U.S. jobs;

establishment of plant-closing notification and consultation procedures; and

establishment of a youth minimum wage.
Ch. 70—Policy Issues and Options ● 3 8 1

Options for Employment Policy

Options for employment policy range from

continuing current programs (the status quo)

to adopting new measures in one of three

general areas: job creation, collection and

dissemination of relevant information, and adjustment assistance.

Status Quo

The programs outlined above (together with

the education and training programs described

elsewhere) constitute the status quo. As a

package, these programs provide relatively

limited Federal involvement in long-term

employment change. They principally aim for

maintenance of income for individual members

of the labor force who become unemployed, or

for employment of disadvantaged groups who

tend to have difficulty obtaining jobs from the

outset. Also, they allow U.S. companies to rely

on quick and massive layoffs (sometimes with

plant closings) when business declines. Companies can achieve relatively quick, largescale

movements of capital to more productive uses

by closing unprofitable plants and building or

acquiring more productive facilities. However,

this practice causes employees and communities to bear most of the costs of economic adjustment. In contrast, companies abroad (e.g.,

large Japanese manufacturing firms) tend to

adjust their work forces more slowly and

through a wider range of measures.8 That conduct involves slower movement of (and potentially lower returns on) capital resources, but

distributes the adjustment burden more evenly among employees, managers, and investors.

Existing Federal labor market programs

and institutions are ill-equipped to deal with

long-term shifts in labor demand arising from

technological and economic changes, and

growing uncertainty in skill requirements.

These factors may contribute to growth in

long-term unemployment, including extended

unemployment among groups other than the

—

8Jarnes A. Orr, Haruo Shimada and Atsushi Seike, “U. S.-

Japan Comparative %udy of Employment Adjustment, draft,

U.S. Department of Labor and Japan Ministry of Labor, Nov.

9, 1982.

disadvantaged. Similarly, they are not designed to deal with large regional disparities

in unemployment. This is a concern since at

least the near-term employment effects of PA

will be concentrated regionally. Under the

status quo, the employee would bear most of

the burden of employment change associated

with PA; various levels of government bear,

both directly and indirectly, some of the costs

of unemployment that might occur.

Job Creation

While retraining prepares a work force for

transition, job creation assures that people

have work to do. It is appropriate to consider

a Federal role in job creation, because job creation programs at the State level may merely

sharpen interstate competition for a given

number of jobs, shifting the location of job op

portunities rather than generating new jobs

overall. Since most job openings occur to replace departing personnel, past and proposed

Federal programs for job creation aim to generate new jobs that represent growth in economic activity. The principal problem in

developing a program to stimulate job creation is to avoid paying for jobs that employers

would have created anyway, and to avoid

shifting employment from one industry to

another, either of which would diminish net

job growth.* These problems have chronically

plagued past public-service employment and

job-creation incentive programs.

At the most general level, expansionary

macroeconomic policy—including changes in

the supply of money, interest rates, and tax

rates-can lead to job creation by stimulating

economic activity, although job development

is not restricted to specific industries or

locales. Also, macroeconomic policies that

strengthen the dollar may make imports effectively less expensive than domestic products, discouraging growth in U.S. production.

*For exmple, a 5C per gallon Federal SUrtL1.X on K~o~e ‘as

enacted through the Highway Impmvement Act of 1982 to fund

a countercyclical public works program. When the legislation

was proposed critics charged that the added cost of surface

transportation would result in job losses elsewhere in the economy, including jobs associated with the distribution of goods

by trucks.
382 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

At a less general level, Congress can foster

and shape job creation primarily by legislating

specific measures to stimulate hiring. In addition to tax credit programs such as the one

already in effect, such measures include incentives for domestic production and, in the event

of persistent labor surpluses, legislation for

change in average work hours and increased

production of so-called public goods and services. These measures are discussed below in

general terms.

Congress can stimulate job creation by legislating financial incentives (or legislating an

end to disincentives) for companies to produce

(and buy supplies) within the United States,

instead of overseas. The rationale for such incentives is that local production entails local

employment. Harrison and Bluestone, for example, estimated that over 30 million jobs

were lost during the 1970’s to plant closings

overall, including the relocation of production

to overseas locations. Other analysts have

come to similar conclusions.g The risk of such

incentives is that they can encourage inefficient production practices and lead to higher

prices by sheltering domestic producers from

competition from foreign firms. Economic

theory holds that where domestic production

is less efficient than production abroad, U.S.

consumers will pay more for domestically produced goods; also, they will pay more for foreign-produced goods whose availability is artificially depressed. Consequently, producers

and consumers will have fewer resources available to them to put to other uses. Employment

may be sheltered in the short term but foregone in the long term. This argument is frequently raised by economists against import

restrictions such as tariffs and quotas. *

‘Mary Jane Belle, “Plant Closings and Business Relocations, ”

CRS Issue Brief IB83152, Sept. 27, 1983.

*No~ that there may be noneconomic arguments fOr sheltering a domestic industry. Usually, those arguments center on national security-on claims that there is a national interest in

assuring domestic knowhow and production capability for certain products, usually involving defens+reiated technology. The

tist of national intmwst is a difficult one to make as evidenced

by the controversy over recent Houda.ille and NMTBA petitions for restrictions on machine tool imports.

Two types of jobcreation programs might

be considered in the face of persistent labor

surpluses. The first is legislation to reduce

average working hours (either tied to FLSA

or as independent legislation, perhaps de

signed so that reductions in work hours are

triggered by certain economic conditions), and

the second would be legislation stimulating

production of so+called public goods and services. Products like defense or perhaps childcare, for which there is recognized public de

mand which the private market is ill-suited or

unable to meet, fall into this realm.

The chief benefit of reducing average work

hours is that it would allow a given amount

of work to be shared among a larger group of

people. The number of jobs available is a function of the (average) number of hours per job,

as is the amount of leisure time available to

citizens. The tradeoff between jobs and hours

is not a new policy concept; one of the goals

of FLSA was to increase employment by discouraging employers from resorting to overtime work by requiring them to pay more for

longer hours. Both economic hardship (due to

low pay and unemployment) and technological displacement were concerns during the

Depression era, when FLSA was enacted.10

Another argument, first raised during the late

1970’s, is that reducing work hours offers a

way to avoid disproportionate job loss among

female and minority employees, who often

have relatively low levels of seniority.

Reducing the average hours of work is not

necessarily the same as “work-sharing,” which

tends to involve the redistribution of existing

work. The difference is important in contemplating income effects. A major perceived disadvantage of programs that reduce work hours

is that individual employees may experience

real wage losses (see ch. 4). This is especially

likely for work-sharing. Broader distribution

of work without growth in total wages will not

lead to the same generation of new jobs that

can result from growth in wages and spending.

——————

‘“Irving Bernstein, The Lean Years (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Co., 1960).
.—

Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options ● 383

.—— —

Some people, however, will willingly trade reduced work-hours and lower pay for increased

leisure time.11

Changes in work hours may also cause businesses to incur additional costs for changing

their operations and procedures to deal with

greater numbers of personnel and for increased

spending on fringe benefits. Firms may also

lose efficiency, if the workers “picked up”

through work-sharing are not appropriately

qualified.* On the other hand, companies may

face lower UI tax liabilities, which often rise

for companies that lay off personnel. Also,

work-sharing may encourage greater reductions in force where there are administrative

benefits to doing so. For example, while a 10-

percent cutback might satisfy a company’s financial needs, a 20-percent reduction tied to

a move to a 4-day work week may be easier

to administer.

The actual costs and benefits of reducing

work hours depend on how a program is structured—how funded, how phased in, etc. The

current UI system, for example, implies that

higher wage personnel would lose more than

lower wage personnel because UI replaces less

of their wages. Also, the experiencerating system, under which employers with worse ratings bear more of the cost of UI than others,

implies that low-rated employers might effectively shift their work-sharing costs to higher

cost firms.

Already, several States have provided for

temporary reductions in work hours as a

means of preserving unemployment during

slack periods. These programs typically involve a reduction in work week for participating companies and pro-rated UI benefits for

nonworked days. While employees in declining industries and areas may benefit in the

short term, longer term gains would require

a program with broad coverage that could help

shift people into stronger industries. This, in

11”20 Million Opt for Shorter Work Week, ” 13rnpfoyment and

Trm”m”ng Reporter, Nov. 16, 1983.

*However, unqu~ified workers may be less able to benefit

from or afford work-sharing, insofar as employers resist hiring them, or because the full time wages for their work are

already low.

turn, would shift adjustment costs to a broader range of industries and individuals and

away from communities and governments. For

even distribution of costs and benefits, a nationwide, Federal program may be necessary.

In the near term, Congress might at least consider further encouragement of temporary

hours-reductions and work-sharing, including

facilitating necessary adjustments in UI and

other programs to allow for altered terms of

unemployment. 12

Stimulating production of so-called public

goods and services would also create jobs. It

is not a make-work option: The production of

public goods and services does not have to be

met by expanded public sector employment;

as in the case of defense procurement, public

investment can stimulate private sector employment. If the economy is incapable of employing available labor resources in the production

of private goods and services-a condition

that has not yet ban established conclusively–it is possible to increase production of

public goods without reducing production of

private goods. As employment grows, demand

for private goods may grow in turn, shifting

the balance between production of private and

public goods and services. An often unrecognized advantage is that public goods spending

may raise productivity in private goods production. For example, highway building and

improvement can lower trucking costs and

thereby reduce costs to the consumer, while

child-care services can freeup parents for employment (as well as lower transfer payments

for unemployed, child-rearing parents).

The principal disadvantage of public goods

programs historically has been the risk of

diverting productive resources from private

goods production. This charge has been leveled against defense programs, for example,

which support a handful of industries and tend

to employ relatively high-skill personnel. It

was also raised during the 1982 debate over

funding public works projects with an increase

1’Judith Cummings, “Novel Ways Being Used to Save Jobs,. ”

The New York Times, Jan. 28, 1983. Also, as noted above,

TEFRA mandated study of work-sharing by the Department

of Labor.
384 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

in the Federal gasoline tax, which was expected to reduce economic activity among a

broad range of concerns depending on truck

transportation and other heavy users of gasoline.

Labor-Market Information

Because programmable automation offers

the prospect of radical and ongoing changes

in the deployment of labor, expanded collection and analysis of occupational employment

data would provide a means of measuring the

rate, extent, and direction of change within

and between occupational groups. At present,

it is not possible to compare detailed occupational data over short periods of time (e.g., 1

to 3 years). Also, official analyses of the effects

of technology change on employment levels

and staffing patterns are few and far between.

Better data collection by the Department of

Labor and the Bureau of the Census would improve the modeling exercises (using input-output analysis) already undertaken by those

Federal agencies to describe and forecast employment trends, and it would improve the information disseminated to educators, counselors, and individuals by the Department of

Labor through the Occupational Outlook Pro

gram and the Dictionary of Occupational

Titles. It would also provide data for measuring “best practice” among firms in deploying

labor, information that would be useful to

managers, labor organizations, and educators.

As Federal statistics programs have been

cut back during the past few years, debate

over the appropriate Federal role in the gathering and disseminating of various forms of data

has grown. The minimalists hold that Federal

efforts should be confined to meeting the spe

cific needs and priorities of government agencies. Their arguments are rooted in broader

interests in deregulation and reducing government paperwork required of businesses. Supporters, by contrast, argue that agency needs

and priorities change and are hard to predict

or circumscribe; that private sources lack the

wherewithal and authority of the Federal Government for collecting data: that there is a

need for statistics that describe overall social

and economic conditions across the Nation;

and that there is a need for the Federal Government to provide citizens with information.13

Limited funding for Federal statistics programs forces Federal agencies to channel resources to those activities of most immediate

use by the Government, such as statistics describing overall employment and economic

performance characteristics. This practice

serves short-term information needs, but

raises questions about the effectiveness of

even the favored programs in the long term,

because the most-used aggregate statistics de

penal on more detailed data-gathering, analysis, and modeling.

Adjustment Assistance (Excluding Training)

Public attention to Federal activity in adjustment assistance is growing because many

States are affected; States are competing for

jobs; and growing numbers of potentially affected workers are not covered by collective

bargaining. Because those displaced by programmable automation are likely to have been

at risk of displacement from other factors such

as rising imports, expansion of overseas production, and plant closings generally, any Federal program of adjustment assistance would

best be provided as part of a broader program

to assist the long-term displaced; as experience

with the Trade Adjustment Assistance program shows, it is difficult in practice to isolate

single causes of displacement for determining

eligibility for program participation. *

‘

sDaniel Melnick, “Recent Changes in the Coordination of Federal Statistical Data Collection., ” Congressional Research Service, Sept. 15, 1982.

*A broad r~ge of options for adjustment a99i!3t~ce programs has been evaluated in detail in recent publications by

CBO, including “Dislocated Workers: Issues and Federal Options” (July 1982). As noted by CBO, a critical problem in structuring adjustment assistance programs is defining the target

group. How eligibility for assistance is defined determines

whether a program covers all categories of affected personnel

(“vertical equity’ and/or all people affected within categories

(“horizontal equity”). Different criteria have different implications for client base size, cost, and coverage of people with varying capabilities for adjusting on their own. Table 74 shows the

CBO comparison of different approaches to targeting adjustment assistance. Among the categories discussed in debates

over programs (excluding retraining) for displaced workers include older workers (age 40 and older), workers in so-called

declining industries, and workers in disadvantaged areas (including new entrants to the labor force).
Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options • 385

Table 75.—Sensitivity of Estimated Numbers of Dislocated Workers in January 1983 to Alternative Eligibility

Standards and Economic Assumptions

Number of workers

Eligibility criteria High trenda Middle trendb

Low trend c

— —

Single criteria:

Declining industryd 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,065 880 835

Multiple criteria:

Declining industry and other unemployed in declining areae 

. . . . . 2,165 1,785 1,700

Declining occupation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,150 1,095

Ten years or more of job tenure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 835 710 675

More than 45 years of age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,050 890 845

More than 26 weeks of unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 760 560 535

Declining industryd and ten years of job tenure . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275 225 215

45 or more years of age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250 205 195

26 weeks of unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 110 100

Declining industry including other unemployed in declining arease

and ten years of job tenure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430 355 340

45 or more years of age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 490 395 375

26 weeks of unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330 255 245

Declining occupation and f ten years of job tenure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 195 185

45 or more years of age . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 335 280 265

26 weeks of unemployment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 120 105

‘~,gh ~rend ‘~~u~e~ ~OntinuatlOn of MarCh 19B0 t. De~e~be~ 1962 ~r~~th ~’te~ ,“ the number of unemployed workers In each calegOfy Speclflcally, the number

of workers unemployed from declln!ng !ndustnes Increased by 32 percent In this period—a monthly average of 1 4 percent

bThe middle trend assumes that the number of dislocated workers w)ll rema, n constant from December lg81 to January 1983 The number of dislocated workers In

December 1981 IS estimated by adjusting March 1980 Current Population totals for changes in the level and compos!tlon of unemployment through December 1981

c

The low trend assumes that the number of dl slocated workers i n each category decreases proporf ionately with the prolected change I n the aggregate number of

unemployed workers between the first quarter of 1982 and the first quarter of 1983, a reduction of nearly 5 percent

d T he decljnlnglnd”stry Categov includes all 1Ob losers from Industnes with decl!nlng employment levels from 1978 to 1980 See Marc Bendlck! Jr and Judith R’dlin+l

Devlne, “Workers Dislocated by Econom!c Change’ Is There A Need for Federal Employment and Training Assmtance?”

‘1 f a deci I nl ng Industry was located I n an area defined as decllntng, all other job losers in the area were Included Decll n! ng areas are defl ned as those ex perlenc Ing

decllnes In population from 1970 to 1980 or with an 85 or higher percent unemployment rate in March 1980

fThe decllnlng Occupation Categoy includes ‘II job losers from occupations wfth declining employment leVels from 1977 to 1980

SOURCE Congressional Budget Office, based on tabulations from the March 198JI Current Population Survey and other sources noted above

While the debate over aid to displaced workers overall tends to focus on external aid, such

as income maintenance or relocation assistance, the spread of programmable automation

raises questions about the role of employers

in the adjustment process. Two employer actions in particular might be encouraged by legislation. The first is advance notice of technological change and displacement, and the

second is incentives for replacement of personnel by employers.

Advance notice of technological change

allows workers to plan for change, evaluate

training needs, and seek new work before a re

duction in force is put into effect. It also allows

management, communities, and labor to work

together to ease the adjustment process.

Nevertheless, companies often resist providing advance notice as an extension of the view

that technological change is a management

prerogative. The University of South Florida,

for example, reports that its robotics experts

have been asked to perform robot feasibility

studies with the proviso that “under no circumstances are employees to find out. ”14 A

disadvantage borne by companies is that key

personnel will often be the first to leave,

possibly putting future operations in jeopardy.

This concern has been a central argument in

opposition to plant-closing legislation and to

voluntary resignation (buy-out) programs.

Encouraging employers through financial incentives to re-place personnel either within or

outside of the firm is another option. This option, like job creation, increases the adjustment burden on companies relative to employees, communities, and local labor markets. It

may stimulate cooperative activities among

industry, local government, educators, and

labor, perhaps building on efforts associated

with the Jobs Training Partnership Act. On

the other hand, it is primarily feasible for large

“’’USF Engineers Extending Robots’ Limited Capabilities, ”

Sue Stremmel, Oracle, June 15, 1983.
386 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

employers, especially those with multiple facilities, broad product lines, and adequate

training facilities and funds.

Existing Federal Work

Environment Policies

The Federal Government already has policies that regulate the work environment, such

as legislation covering wages and hours and

occupational safety and health. These same

policies will apply to the introduction and use

of PA in manufacturing, although they may

not be adequate to meet new concerns.

Legislation

The principal safety statute relevant to pro

grammable automation is the Occupational

Safety and Health Act of 1970. It has as its

purpose to “assure so far as possible every

working man and woman in the nation safe

and healthful working conditions and to preserve our human resources. ” Under the provisions of the act, the Department of Labor is

responsible for promulgating and enforcing occupational safety and health standards. The

Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) was formed in April 1971 within

the Department of Labor to implement the

OSH Act. Additional legislation addresses

worker safety in mining and atomic power environments. Traditionally, safety and health

concerns in the workplace centered mainly on

safety and protection from the most obvious

exposures to toxic chemicals and other dangerous substances. More recently, greater emphasis has been placed upon occupational

health, long-term exposure problems, job

stress, and toxicological problems.15

Other laws focus on how employees and

management may address work environment

concerns. The National Labor Relations Act

(NLRA) was passed in 1935 to encourage the

practice of collective bargaining. The act was

amended in 1947 (Taft-Hartley Act) and again

in 1959 (Landrum-Griffin Act). The NLRA and —

“Steven Deutsch, “Extending Workplace Democracy: Struggles to Come in Job Safety arid Health, ” Labor Stud-es Journal, vol. 6, No. 1, Spring 1981, p.?

its regulations govern the conduct of collective bargaining in the United States. With respect to the introduction of new technology,

rulings to date by NLRB suggest that it is bargainable if the technology deprives employees

of jobs, work opportunities, or otherwise

causes a real change in working conditions.l”

Thus, the introduction of new technology may

be treated similarly to decisions on whether

to contract out work. Since the collective bargaining process directly benefits only workers

in unionized settings, these protections may

be lacking for workers in nonunion plants. The

issue of coverage is important because, although unionization is relatively high in the

metalworking industries, the use of programmable automation is increasing in a broad mix

of industries. With current estimates of union

membership in the United States totaling be

tween 20 and 25 percent of all workers at most,

there is a large segment of the population that

will not be protected by the process of collective bargaining.

The Department of Labor administers programs to encourage labor-management cooperation on a number of issues. These programs

take place in union and nonunion settings. Pro

visions are sometimes made in contracts for

joint labormanagement safety committes that

meet periodically to discuss safety problems,

to work out solutions, and to implement safety

programs in the plant.” Insofar as labor

organizations or workers perceive technology

as a health issue (e.g., if there is substantial

evidence to suggest that new forms of machine

monitoring and pacing of work are unhealthy)

labor representatives may push for measures

to protect workers against such hazards.

Other Programs

The Department of Health and Human

Services, through the National Institute for

Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), is

“SW Automation and the Workplace: SeJecti Labor, Education, and Trainin g Issues (Washington, DC.: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, OTA-TM-CIT-25, March 1983),

p. 55.

“Characteristics of Major Collective BargainibgAgreements,

Jan. 1, 1980.
Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options . 387

responsible for recommending new standards,

conducting research on which new standards

can be based, and implementing education and

training programs for producing an adequate

supply of manpower to carry out the purposes

of the act. In addition to Federal involvement

in the protection of workplace safety and

health, there are agencies responsible at both

the State and local levels as well.

Options for Work Environment Policy

Congressional policy considerations with re

spect to the effects of programmable automation on the work environment fall largely

in two areas. One is assuring that sufficient

data are available to make informed judgments about current or prospective impacts

of PA on workers and the workplace. The second area is determiningg whether current policy

is sufficient to cover the health and safety

aspects of the new technology. If Congress

decides to act in these areas, options that warrant consideration include: maintaining the

status quo, monitoring the workplace effects

of PA more closely, increasing support for

social impacts research, supporting new workplace standards, and considering broader

workplace legislation.

No Increased Federal Role

Congress could choose to take no additional

action on the workplace effects of PA. Although no single policy instrument specifically

addresses the impacts of PA on the work environment, various mechanisms (including collective bargaining, OSHA regulations, and

others) are already in place at the Federal,

State, and local levels that cover workplace

concerns in general, particularly in the areas

of health and safety. In addition, PA is being

introduced at a time when there is increasing

awareness of and sensitivity to the effects of

the introduction of new technology in all facets

of American life.

There are some efforts in both the public and

private sectors to plan for the workplace consequences of new technology, sometimes involving both management and labor. Such

cooperative efforts are often tied to broader

quality of work life programs and increased

worker participation in decisions that affect

their workplace. Two examples of joint efforts

include arrangements between AT&T and the

Communications Workers of America, and be

tween the United Auto Workers and Ford

Motor Co. Such programs are often restricted,

however, to large, unionized companies. Similar opportunities may not be available to

workers in small shops or nonunionized environments, primarily due to the requirements

for associated time, effort, and cost . In addition, it is often the case that the traditional,

adversarial postures of management and labor limit increases in cooperation and worker

participation in decisions concerning increased

automation. Concern for the displacement effects of PA may make employees reluctant to

contribute to planning for PA.

The principal advantage of maintaining the

status quo rather than initiating additional

policy at this time is that congressional action

on the workplace effects of PA may be premature. The technology and its applications are

at an early stage of development, and the

speed of its diffusion is uncertain. It is also

difficult to know how many of the problems

encountered in the workplace are transitional

ones characteristic of any technological

change. Consequently, there is a lack of data

on the nature of the impacts of PA, especially

over the long term. The information that exists

is largely qualitative or anecdotal and often

cannot be generalized for industry- or sectorwide responses.

Reliable information is critical if the OSH

Act is to serve as the basis for PA-related

work environment policy. The OSH Act is an

enforcement statute which is implemented

through investigations and measurements.

While physical safety and health conditions

tend to be relatively easy to measure objectively, psychological conditions are often less

so. Broadening the scope of investigations

would require additional investigator skills

and procedures for which data on PA impacts

would provide a foundation.
388 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

Additional Government action beyond the

status quo could create mechanisms to collect

data that would allow a more careful evaluation of the impacts of PA on the work environment, thereby permitting better planning to

eliminate potentially serious problems. Both

reliable data and better planning would contribute to a more focused development of policy initiatives over time, as appropriate. Without such Federal action, information on PA

and the work environment will continue to be

piecemeal and fragmentary, and anecdotal

rather than quantitative. If use of the technology spreads more rapidly than expected,

the United States may find itself reacting

to the workplace effects of PA, rather than

planning in advance to address its potential

impacts.

Increase Oversight and Monitoring

Congress could increase the emphasis placed

on the workplace effects of computerized manufacturing automation through its oversight

and monitoring activities. Considerable attention has been given to these issues by a number of congressional committees over the past

several years, particularly in oversight hearings. For example, in September 1981, the

Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Technology of the House Committee on Science

and Technology sponsored a series of hearings

on “The Human Factor in Innovation and Pro

ductivity” which focused on new technology

in the workplace. *

This type of activity increases the visibility

of the subject and provides a public forum for

information-sharing and presentation of diverse viewpoints. In addition to its own oversight activities, Congress could designate responsibilities for OSHA and NIOSH, such as

monitoring and assessing the effects of PA on

the work environment or evaluating the applicability of existing OSHA standards to computerized settings.

The advantage of this option is that it would

provide a Federal approach to monitoring and

—

*The Congressional Research Service produced a committee

print analyzing the testimony and discussion.

assessing the impacts of PA on workers in all

types of manufacturing settings—unionized

and nonunionized, large and small. In addition,

it would help to assure that Congress is kept

aware of the most current thinking with respect to the impacts of PA on the work force.

The principal disadvantage is that it could

potentially result in a piecemeal effort with little or no coordination of activities or sharing

of information. Thus, designation of authority, participation criteria, and accountability

would be necessary in the design of an oversight and monitoring initiative.

Increase Support for Work

Environment Research

Work environment ramifications of the use

of PA are central to both its effectiveness and

its other impacts. Congress could support research addressing such areas as the long- and

short-term physical and psychological effects

of PA, management strategies and policies in

introducing and using PA, worker participation, identification of hazards and how to

control them, skill changes, changes in work

content and organization, and changes in organizational structure, among others. Wide

dissemination of the results would improve the

general level of understanding of practical

ways in which PA technologies can be used

to enhance the work environment. Research

efforts could also lead to the development of

models or guidelines for installations with favorable effects on the work environment which

could be used by those who are contemplating

or making changes. Demonstration projects,

seminars, and experiments would enhance

understanding of the effects of PA and the

extent to which it can be shaped to improve

the work environment.* Congress also could

assure that all parties involved—managers,

employees, educators, and equipment builders—would have timely access to relevant information.

*Topics cover might include successful implementation efforts (and the other side of the coin—those that were not successful and why), innovative ways to organize work, and successful labor-management cooperative efforts.
Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options ● 389

Current research into the impacts of PA on

the manufacturing work environment is modest in scope and support; funds for this purpose have been extremely limited. This situation has arisen in part because social science

research funding is particularly vulnerable to

reduction when funds are scarce. It has also

arisen because work environment issues have

traditionally not been major concerns to technology developers, industry, or even the social

science research communities. Relevant research conducted by industry, universities,

unions, and Government agencies is often

piecemeal and short term. Human factors research, for example, is often narrowly defined

to meet the performance needs of specific military (or industry) projects. Not surprisingly,

therefore, there is no formal coordination of

technology and work environment research efforts, nor evidence of a coherent plan or approach. By contrast, study of the impacts of

new technology on the workplace is more common in Japan and Western Europe, where the

subject has historically received more attention across sectors. In particular, many foreign

countries combine work environment analysis

with engineering research. To learn from their

efforts and experience, Congress could direct

an agency such as the Department of Labor

to both survey relevant foreign activities and,

in particular, to translate and disseminate

foreign reports. However, recent cutbacks

have already affected relevant research activities in the Employment and Training Administration and elsewhere in the Department of

Labor.

Additional or redirected funding could be

made available for activities administered by

the National Science Foundation, NIOSH, the

Department of Labor, or DOD to enable researchers to conduct both qualitative and

quantitative research to determine the extent

of the impacts of PA on the workplace. NSF

would be in a position to extend the scope of

relevant engineering research to include the

social aspects of PA. It already funds separately relevant social science research. NIOSH

could provide a perspective that would link

and compare the safety and health aspects of

PA to other occupational safety and health

issues. The Department of Labor would be in

a position to link the impacts of PA to other

labor issues. DOD has already looked at some

human factors issues in their ManTech program. In addition to individual agency efforts,

increased interagency coordination of research

efforts would have the advantage of combining the expertise of a variety of disciplines,

e.g., engineering, sociology, and management.

In contemplating the Federal research budget, Congress may want to assure that work

environment research, in particular, involves

industry, labor, and academia together. Cooperative efforts provide academic researchers

with access to a valuable source of data for

analysis of long-term effects, while industry

and labor may benefit directly from the findings in the short and long terms. Cooperative

programs for research carried out over a period

of time rather than accomplished in a onetime

visit would be particularly informative to policymakers. Such research might be supported

by any of the agencies listed above.

One disadvantage of increased funding for

social impact research is the potential burden

it might place on companies and individuals

to respond to requests for in-depth studies.

Some strategy for securing the cooperation of

both labor and management would be needed

to minimize potential burdens. The participation of professional and trade associations as

well as labor organizations in the pkuming and

execution of such research could help in overcoming some of the difficulties that might

arise in gaining access to research sites.

New Standards

Both the framework and the mandate exist

in the OSH Act for safeguarding occupational

safety and health of Americans. If it were established that PA creates new occupational

safety and health hazards that were not adequately addressed by manufacturers and

users, new OSHA standards might be required.

The previous two options, monitoring and additional research, are prerequisites to this option. Reliable information would be needed on
390• Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

the numbers of people at risk, on the nature

of the risks, and on the costs of establishing

new regulations.

Advance Notice

Congress may wish to propose legislation

that would require employers to give advance

notice of any technological change that will affect the working conditions of its employees.

A number of union contracts include a clause

covering such notice, and such clauses are becoming more common. Legislation would espe

cially benefit and protect employees of firms

that are not unionized. Advance notice can

benefit employees by providing time for thea

to plan for the change (possibly in cooperation

with employers, communities, and educators)

and to update their skills if required; it provides employees with the means and the responsibility to plan for change. It also pro

vides the opportunity for employees to

participate in some of the decisionmaking that

directly affects their work, if employers wish

to involve them in this way. While advanced

notice of technological change might be as controversial as advance notice of plant closings,

the potential costs for workers and managers

would likely be smaller. (See above discussion

under employment policy.)

Omnibus Work Environment Legislation

Although the United States already has a

statutory framework for protecting occupational safety and health, other aspects of the

introduction of new technology in the workplace, such as the potential for monitoring and

surveillance and the need for advance notice

of technological change, suggest the desirability of taking a broader approach to work environment policy. In addition, a broader approach would ensure that the interests of all

workers would be protected, given the limited

coverage of collective bargaining.

A number of European countries have taken

an omnibus approach to workplace concerns.

In Norway and Sweden, for instance, work

environment legislation has been in effect

since 1977. One of the purposes of this legislation is to protect workers’ mental as well as

physical health in the workplace, particularly

in the context of technology change, and to

give employees an opportunity to influence the

design of the work environment. Such legislation elevates these concerns to policy levels,

and provides a framework for more concrete

actions, such as those described below.

An American approach to legislation has

been proposed by the International Association of Machinists, which has drafted a Technology Bill of Rights to “amend and redefine

official labor policy” (see table 52).18 In addition to advocating the use of new technology

to promote full employment, this proposed

measure includes such work environment safe

guards as prohibiting monitoring and surveillance of workers, advance notice of technological change, and requirements for training. The

Technology Bill of Rights has been made available by I AM to local unions for guidance in

collective bargaining. Because of its breadth,

however, if such a Bill of Rights were enacted

as an amendment to U.S. labor laws, enforcement would be difficult.

Workplace legislation could establish a clear

institutional focus for work environment concerns to enhance the general appreciation of

these issues and their contribution to the economy and society. One example of such an institution is the Swedish Work Environment

Fund, which provides funds for research and

development in the work environment, addressing aspects of both physical and mental

health. Its function is to collect and disseminate information, and to coordinate relevant

program efforts. Financial support is provided

by a variety of sources, including the government, employers, and workers. Such an institution might be considered for the United

States, which presently has only limited institutional involvement in the work environment area concentrated on protection of physical health and safety.

The principal advantage of an institution of

this kind is that it provides a coordinated

*

a

’’ Let’s Rebuild America, ” IAM, p. 195.
Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options ● 391

focus for workplace research, and it establishes

the workplace as an area of national concern.

It would help to overcome much of the fragmentation of workplace research efforts currently evident in the United States by providing

a central thrust and source for dissemination

of information, demonstration projects, etc.

Existing Federal Education, Training,

and Retraining Policy

At present, instruction for PA is funded

through a variety of public and private sources.

Federal funding of education, training, and

retraining efforts of this type is authorized

under broad legislation designed to encourage

career awareness and occupation-related instruction on the elementary, secondary, and

postsecondary levels.

The Federal role in education has traditionally been that of supplementing or enhancing

State and local activities. However, in recent

years, there has been a movement toward lessening direct Federal involvement with the

establishment of educational block grants to

States in place of categorical grants targeted

for use with particular population groups or

in specific types of programs. In spite of this

trend, there are still many Federal laws that

influence curriculum content and overall operations of local school systems and institutions of higher learning.

In contrast, the Federal role in training and

retraining efforts—particularly for the economically disadvantaged-has been a dominant force since the 1960’s. The enactment of

the Manpower Development and Training Act

(MDTA) and the establishment of a nationwide apprenticeship system did much to enhance the existing delivery system for training and retraining. In keeping with the trend

toward decentralization, the recently enacted

Job Training Partnership Act (Public Law 97-

300) assigns responsibility for administration

and regulation of federally funded training and

retraining activities to the States.

For the purposes of this report, this section

will briefly discuss in general terms selected

Federal laws and proposed legislation that are

present or potential sources of support for PA

instructional programs.

Legislation

Elementary, Secondary, and Vocational Education.—The Education Consolidation and

Improvement Act of 1981 (ECIA) called for

the creation of a block grant to States in lieu

of over 40 separate categorical grants to

elementary and secondary schools, many of

which were directed at special populations

such as the handicapped and the economically

disadvantaged. The intent of ECIA is to afford greater flexibility to State agencies and

local school systems in how Federal funds will

be utilized in support of State and local priorities. The major criticism of the Educational

Block Grant Program is that numerous State

and local educational priorities must compete

for the same funding pool. Funding authorized

under the Vocational Education Act of 1963—

legislation now being considered for reauthorization beyond 1984—represents approximate

ly 10 percent of the resources. State and local

education agencies designate funds for secondary and postsecondary vocational education

and training.’g Funds made available under the

act are utilized by a variety of institutions, including vocational\technical schools operated

by local school systems, Stakoperated skills

centers, and community colleges. Among the

typical expenditures allowable under Stateadministered vocational education programs

are facilities maintenance and improvement,

equipment purchase, and curriculum development.

Postsecondary Education. —The Higher Education Act of 1968 authorizes Federal funds

for use by public and private colleges and universities to supplement tuition proceeds, State

funds, and private donations or endowments.

Allowable expenditures under the act include

facilities maintenance and improvement,

‘

gDaniel M. Saks, “Jobs and Training, ” Setting National

Priori-ties: The 1984 Budget (Washington, D. C.: The Brookings

Institution, 1983), p. 165.
392 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

equipment acquisition, and curriculum development.

Since the 1960’s, the Federal Government

has operated Student Financial Assistance

Programs-among them the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSL) and the Pen Grants.

The original intent of these programs was to

provide broader access to higher education for

individuals from low- and middle-income families. However, increased default rates and concern for overall program expenditure levels

($3.1 billion in fiscal year 1983) led to recent

congressional action to tighten eligibility by

requiring all applicants to undergo financial

needs analysis, regardless of income. The Pen

Grants, the largest of the student financial

assistance programs, is also currently undergoing reevaluation. Both GSL and the Pen

Grants have been sources of financial assistance to students enrolled in public and private

colleges and universities and postsecondary,

proprietary business, and technical schools.

Private Sector Training and RetrainingThe recently enacted ob Training Partnership Act (JTPA) replaced as of October 1,

1983, the Comprehensive Employment and

Training Act (CETA) as the legislation

authorizing Federal involvement in occupational training and retraining. JTPA represents an expanded version of title VII of the

CETA Amendments of 1968, known as the

“Private Sector Initiative Program,” designed

to stimulate more direct business involvement

in training , retrainin g employment of the

economically disadvantaged. While the target

audiences for programs designed and operated

under JTPA are economically disadvantaged

youth and adults who lack marketable job

skills, title III of the act authorizes the expenditure of funds for retraining and related

services for displaced workers. JTPA is administered at the State level, and programs are

implemented through a network of local private industry councils that assess local needs

and establish performance standards for training and retraining programs funded under the

program. Unlike CETA, JTPA does not stipulate that living allowances will be provided to

trainees under certain circumstances. Such

provisions are left to the discretion of State

legislatures.

Recent Legislative Proposals

Education, training, and retraining has been

high on the list of priorities for both the 97th

and 98th Congresses. This is due in part to

concern over current and potential future work

force effects of shifts in the industrial composition of the economy, and in part to the emergence of “excellence in education” as an issue

of national concern. In addition, the rising national debt and reduced State and local revenues have generated considerable bipartisan

support for reexamining the Federal role in

education, training, and retraining. Recent

legislative proposals with a bearing on instruction for programmable automation include the

following

●

●

●

●

●

●

strengthening precollege science and

math education by increasing the supply

of qualified instructors and encouraging

curriculum development;

encouraging computer literacy through

teacher education, the creation of incentives for placement of computer hardware and software in local school systems,

curriculum development, research, and

other means;

stimulating improvement in adult

literacy;

providing assistance to the States to ensure that target populations such as the

economically disadvantaged, the handicapped, men and women entering nontraditional occupations, veterans, and adults

requiring training and retraining are ade

quately served by vocational education

programs;

creating tuition tax credits, and individual education and training accounts to

stimulate greater individual participation

in instruction; and

creating tax incentives to encourage employers to provide additional training and

retraining to employees as needed.
Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options ● 393

. — —-—

Options for Education, Training,

and Retraining Policy

There is considerable pressure on the U.S.

instructional system to be more responsive to

structural economic change. Economic and

technological change may well result in more

frequent shifts in work force skill requirements, and it may well require greater flexibility and mobility among work force participants than ever before. The ramifications of

PA for education and training area subset of

this larger issue. There may be a new mandate

for the U.S. instructional system as a whole

to gear education trainingp and retraining programs of all types more to long-range, structural changes in the labor market. This focus,

a change from the past orientation to relative

ly static occupational demands, will also require a heightened awareness of skills that are

common to a variety of occupations-skills

that, by their very nature, may provide individuals with greater occupational mobility.

New approaches to curriculum design, more

frequent review and modification of existing

curricula in keeping with substantive labor

market change, an increase in the supply of

qualified instructors in some disciplines, and

more attention to maintaining instructional facilities and using state-of-the-art equipment,

will be necessary.

While industry, labor unions, and educators

are all providers of PA-related training and

other types of instruction, they have limited

resources and sometimes hold different views

of the nature and scope of instruction required,

as well as the most appropriate modes of delivery. In light of these conditions, and the

roles being assumed by industry and labor, the

Federal role in education, training, and retraining needs to be reexamined. The following Federal policy options are proposed for consideration by Congress.

No Increased Federal Role

Congress could choose not to modify Federal

involvement in education, training, and retraining in light of instructional needs associated with programmable automation. If this

option were pursued, PA-related instructional

requirements would compete with all others

for Federal dollars earmarked for elementary,

secondary, vocational, and higher education,

and for training and retraining. Producers and

vendors of PA equipment and systems would

provide, as they do now, the bulk of initial

training to employees of user firms.* Companies utilizing PA would or would not provide

additional in-house instruction based on available corporate resources and priorities.**

Community colleges and trade and technical

schools, based on their varying readings of

available labor market forecasts, student demand, familiarity with local labor market

needs, and resources, would choose whether

or not to develop PA-related degree and nondegree programs. Colleges and universities

would, with existing resources, choose whether

or not to adapt their engineering, computer

science, business administration, and career

guidance programs to the needs of automated

manufacturing environments, based on their

understanding of industry and/or student demand. In elementary and secondary education,

creating an awareness of career opportunities

in automated manufacturing and providing information on skills requirements would be left

to the discretion of the school district, institution, or individual instructor.

The advantage of maintaining the existing

Federal role in PA instruction is that programmable automation is still in the earliest stages

of utilization. Little is known about how PA

will change or modify skill requirements, af-

—

*In the summer of 1982, OTA commissioned a survey of

views of education, training, and retraining requirement

associated with the use of programmable automation. Results

of telephone interviews with producers of PA equipment and

systems indicated that 93 percent of producer firms provide

instruction for their customers, but that the training is narrowly

focused and designed for use with a variety of occupational

groups. **The OTA.commig9ioned survey of views of PA-related

education, training, and retraining requirements found that 40

percent of the representative manufacturing facilities contacted

utilized some form of PA, and of this number, only 22 percent

sponsored or conducted education and training for automated

manufacturing. Among the plants currently not offering instruction of this type, only 18 percent indicated any plans to implement programs in the future. The most common reason cited

was “low benefits relative to costs. ”
394 . computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

feet job design, or trigger job loss, particularly

over the long term. Current labor market forecasts shed little light on possible new career

opportunities within automated manufacturing on which to base instructional priorities.

The disadvantage of not modifying Federal

involvement in education, training and retraining for PA is that the Federal Government

would forego potential roles unlikely to be

assumed by other levels of government or the

private sector, such as assisting in the coordination of instructional activities, ensuring

that adequate labor market forecasts are developed and that information derived from

such forecasts is actively disseminated to individuals, educators, and trainers. For example, State governments are unlikely to encourage instruction that increases individual

mobility within the work force (and between

States), although increased mobility may further national employment objectives. In addition, shortages of instructors, inadequate facilities and outdated equipment among

traditional deliverers of technical instruction

are national concerns. These conditions should

be considered in determiningg possible Federal

roles in instruction for programmable automation and in examining overall Federal involve

ment in education, training, and retraining.

Increase Support for Facilities, Equipment

and Qualified Instructors

Congress could choose to build on the existing Federal role in elementary, secondary, and

postsecondary education by targeting resources for the purchase or lease of state-ofthe-art equipment and/or by making selected

facilities ready for use in future periods of intense instructional demand. It could further

increase instructional capacity by creating tax

incentives that would encourage user firms to

purchase state-of-the-art equipment and systems for training purposes and to expand their

in-house instructional facilities. Congress is

currently considering proposals to strengthen

science and math instruction on the elementary, secondary, and postsecondary levels by

improving curricula and stimulating more interest in teaching careers in these fields. It

could also consider methods to encourage interest in careers in engineering education and

other forms of technical instruction.

The advantage of these congressional actions is that upgrading facilities and equipment, as well as stimulating the supply of instructors, would remove the major barriers to

the establishment of relevant instructional

programs within the public and private sectors. Such actions would serve to shorten the

time from the identification of new skill requirements to the development of instructional programs. Removing impediments to the

timely design of instruction would be particularly valuable for displaced workers and others

seeking to develop new skills or enhance existing skills quickly.

The disadvantage of congressional actions

of this type is that they might stimulate too

much interest in PA-related instruction at the

expense of other types of education and training. Doing so would result in the establishment of excess capacity for PA-related skills

development. In addition, there is the danger

that facilities improvements and equipment

purchases could overshadow attention given

to needs assessment, curriculum design, and

instructional program delivery.

Encourage Curriculum Development

Congress could choose to encourage the development of curricula for various educational

levels and instructional programs geared to

the development of PA-related skills, perhaps

by fostering the development of voluntary

guidelines for PA-related curriculum content.

This could be accomplished by establishing a

program within the Department of Education

that would provide grants to educational

institutions to develop model curricula. Alternatively, funds for relevant curriculum development could be designated within the existing program of Educational Block Grants to

States. By encouraging industry and labor

participation in curriculum development at all

levels, and by encouraging interjector cooperation in defining instructional requirements and
Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options • 395

strategies generally, Congress could reinforce

ties between industry, labor, and the instructional community.

Such congressional actions would create an

environment for anew and coherent approach

to curriculum design. At present, many programs for PA-related skills development consist

simply of adding PA components to existing

curricula. For example, a number of robotics

maintenance and repair programs are based

on long-established curricula for electromechanical technology or electronics. This approach to curriculum design is not necessarily

ineffective; it simply needs to be examined and

evaluated. However, curricula that are tied too

closely to specific occupations may not stand

the test of time, particularly Since present

skills requirements associated with PA may

represent only the first wave of change. Encouraging comprehensive curriculum design

and the establishment of voluntary guidelines

for curriculum content would guarantee some

degree of standardization to both enrollees and

employers. Such standardization would foster

the development of common skills that would,

in turn, encourage more standardized approaches to job content and greater individual

mobility within the work force. This would encourage proactive education and training.

The disadvantage of such congressional actions is that, unless carefully devised, they

might stifle creative approaches to curriculum

design and content that are ongoing or that

might otherwise develop on the institutional

level. There is also a risk that the importance

of PA issues might be overemphasized in overall curriculum design.

Encourage Renewed Emphasis on Basic Skills

and Problem-Solving Skills

Congress could choose to encourage at all

levels of instruction a renewed emphasis on

strong, basic skills in reading, math, and

science. Special emphasis could be placed on

the development of individual problem-solving

skills, since these are important prerequisites

to training for careers in automated manufacturing, as well for nonmanufacturing occupations. Many individuals are unable to participate in PA-related instruction due to basic

skill deficiencies. Others have received technical instruction that was geared to the development of manual skills and that provided

limited opportunities for the development of

more abstract problem-solving abilities. Some

have held jobs for long periods that did not

require use of conceptual skills that may be

more important for work in computerized settings. Congress could emphasize the importance of both basic skills and problem-solving

skills at all levels of instruction, and take steps

to coordinate basic-education programs for

school-age youth and adults. This could be

accomplished by strengthening the coordination function now performed by the Department of Education for elementary, secondary,

vocational, technical, and higher education.

Currently, the Department sponsors research

on alternative approaches to basic skills and

problem-solving skills development for different levels of education and for students of

different age groups.

There are a number of advantages in pursuing this option. First, it can make the labor

supply more resilient in the long-term by raising the overall skill level. Second, it creates

a common foundation of skills that could be

enhanced over time (as needed) through the de

velopment of job-related skills, including those

associated with PA. Third, this approach does

not feed the process of “skills obsolescence”

by tying individual instruction too closely to

specific technologies.

The disadvantage of this course of action is

that it risks overemphasis of the basic skills

to the neglect of broader educational experiences and the stimulation of career interests.

In addition, it represents only part of a longterm solution, and it does not address the need

for the development of specific, PA-related

skills needed in the short-term, such as maintenance, repair, and programing.
396• Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

———

Intensify Efforts to Gather and Broadly

Disseminate Labor-Market Information

In order to adequately prepare for participation in the work force, individuals need access

to current, reliable information on labor market trends, especially trends for occupational

employment. Educational and career guidance

personnel at all instructional levels, as well as

individuals who provide job counseling and

placement assistance to adults, also need access to current, reliable information. Congress

could choose to strengthen the national

database for labor-market information and encourage the development of strong links to

State and local databases, where they exist.

It could also encourage more systematic dissemination of labor market information, in

cooperation with the private sector, by modifying the responsibilities of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and designating broad-based information dissemination as a primary BLS

function. These actions would require an increase in appropriations, in light of recent cutbacks in Federal statistical programs.

One advantage of this type of congressional

action is that it would enhance public and private sector knowledge of labor market conditions, facilitating “informed” planning by individuals, employers, educators, and all levels

of government. Another advantage is that the

database could be used in combination with

information on industrial activity (e.g., plant

and facility improvements) as an early warning system for major shifts in skills requirements in older or emerging growth industries.

The disadvantage of enhancing current

labor-market information gathering and dissemination programs is that additional Federal expenditures would be required in a period

of relatively limited Federal resources. The

success of such a program would hinge on the

close cooperation of industry and labor unions

with the Federal Government in sharing information on emerging skills requirements and

current approaches to job design.

Encourage Individual Participation in

PA-Related Instruction

Congress could choose to influence the numbers of individuals who seek PA-related instruction or retraining for jobs in nonmanufacturing sectors. Measures such as those already

being considered by Congress to make individual participation in instruction more economically feasible could be used to encourage PArelated skills development. These proposals include: the creation of individual tax incentives;

the designation of trainingas an allowable expense under the Unemployment Insurance

System; and the establishment of individual

education or training accounts.

This course of action would increase the role

of individuals in the adjustment process. Incentives to individuals would be particularly

valuable in instances where employers do not

provide PA-related skills development opportunities to their employees beyond the level

of introductory training. Displaced workers

who wish to pursue careers in computerized

environments or elsewhere would gain the resources for acquiring necessary skills.

Possible disadvantages in congressional initiatives of this kind include overstimulation

of individual interest in PA-related skills development that, unless carefully monitored,

could result in a skills glut; proliferation of PA

instructional programs that are not necessarily of high quality; and a disincentive to industries utilizing PA to provide employee instruction.

Encourage Industry-Based Instruction

Findings of an OTA-sponsored survey of

views of instructional requirements for programmable automation suggest that the majority of firms currently utilizing computerautomated equipment and systems have no

plans at this time to establish in-house instructional programs in the near future.20 These

— —.—— —

20For additional information on this OTA-sponsored survey,

see Automation and the Workplace: Selected Labor, Education,

and Training Issues, op. cit., March 1983.
Ch. 10—Policy Issues and Options . 397

findings are in keeping with ongoing, private

sector concern about the high costs associated

with providing in-house, technical instruction.

Congress could choose to encourage users of

progr ammable automation to establish or enhance existing, in-house technical training and

education programs through the creation of

tax incentives that help defray the costs of instructors, equipment, expansion of instructional facilities, and curriculum development.

This type of congressional action would

stimulate additional training to meet shortterm industrial needs. It would also encourage

firms already providing PA-related instruction

to broaden what is commonly very narrow

course content; to provide access to training

to a wide range of occupational groups-including production line workers; and to consider establishing longer range human resource

development programs. Training associated

with proprietary processes might be stimulated by the availability of additional resources,

Incentives might be particularly useful in

making training in small firms more structured and focused; it traditionally occurs informally on the job due to limited resources

and other factors.

One risk of such congressional initiatives is

that they may not assist manufacturing workers who need it the most: lower skilled production line workers and skilled craftsmen who

have become unemployed or are at the greatest risk of job loss, since industry has traditionally provided little training to these worker groups. The design of specific initiatives

would determine whether the unique needs of

these worker groups are taken into account in

instructional programs. There might also be

a disincentive for some individuals to pursue

PA-related education and training programs

that are not offered by their employers.

Intensify Research Efforts

Since programmable technologies are still

maturing and PA diffusion is still in the earliest phases, it is likely that additional changes

in skill requirements for automated manufacturing will emerge over time. Congress could

choose to increase Federal sponsorship of research to identify changing skills requirements

within existing manufacturing occupations

and emerging occupations, and to provide for

broad-based dissemination of the findings to

better equip educators and trainers for curriculum development. Congress could also use

a research program to encourage the development of instructional standards that are in

keeping with PA-related skill requirements. It

could authorize the Departments of Education

and Labor to establish mechanisms for regular review and reassessment of these standards by industry, labor, and educators. Strengthening the labor-market information database,

as proposed in a previous option, is a prerequisite for this initiative.

Individuals, educators, industry, and labor

would all benefit from an increased understanding of changing skills and emerging occupations, especially since little research of

this kind is conducted within the private sector. Broad-based dissemination of this information by Federal and State governments,

nonprofit associations, and other entities

would ensure that workers of all types would

have access and the opportunity to determine

what it means in light of their career goals and

skill levels. Over time, the availability of this

information would give individuals and institutions a stronger basis from which to forecast

future skills changes and to initiate instructional activities based on these changes. The

creation of instructional standards would encourage the development of high-quality education, training, and retraining programs with

content that accurately reflects industrial

skills requirements.

A disadvantage to this option is that it

would require an expanded Federal role in sociotechnical research in a period of limited Federal resources. Another disadvantage is that

the creation of instructional standards could

stifle creative approaches to curriculum content at the institutional level, and instructional

responses to the needs of particular industries

with unique PA applications.
Appendix
Appendix A

Selected Case Studies: Summaries

. —

The following section includes summaries of five

case studies of instructional programs designed to

develop skills that are presently associated with

the use of programmable automation (PA). These

five are part of a group of 14 such studies developed for OTA. Instructional activities described

in the case studies summarized here include: 1) a

robotics and computer-aided drafting program for

high school students, operated by the Oakland

County School System in southeastern Michigan;

2) the undergraduate and graduate degree programs in Engineering Technology offered by Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah; 3) CADAM

Inc. ’s* customer training in computer-aided design; 4) the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers’ programmable controller training system; and 5) the “CAD/CAM” operator training

program based in Glendale, Calif. (representative

of efforts characterized by strong industry, education, and government cooperation). The five studies were selected for inclusion to illustrate PArelated instruction of various types and levels of

sophistication, as well as to highlight programs

operating in different geographic areas,

case Study Research Methodolog y

Case study research began in July 1982 and

ended in June 1983. The initial objective of the research project was to identify and contact a

selected sample of institutions, organizations, and

agencies known to offer or have the potential to

offer programs designed to prepare individuals for

jobs in computer-automated factory environments. Approximately 300 individuals representing industry, educational institutions, government agencies, professional associations, training

and/or education associations, technical societies,

and community organizations were contacted in

the first stage of the research. This was augmented

by a literature search. A sample of 100 training

or education programs was identified, from which

20 were chosen to be the subjects of 14 case

studies.

The following selection criteria were developed:

● Gegraphical spread. — Programs were chosen

from all four quadrants of the country, with

a concentration of four programs from the

*C AI)A M Inc. is a subsidiary of the Lockheed Corp.

●

●

●

●

●

heavily industrialized areas of southeastern

Michigan.

Instruction~ deliverers. —The case studies include programs operated by primary schools,

high schools, community colleges, universities, and 4-year colleges, a union/managementoperated training center, and industries that

produce and use PA equipment.

Type of programmable automation train -

ing.—Programs chosen provide instruction in

computer-aided drafting and design systems,

robots, programmable controllers, computerized numerically controlled machines, automated vision systems for factory inspection,

automated materials-handling systems, specialized semiconductor fabrication equipment,

and CAD and CAM networking systems. In

addition, university programs addressing the

systems approach to computer-integrated

manufacturing education, plus in-plant programs stressing the systems approach for

managers, are included.

occupational categories of trainess–Pro -

grams covered in the case study series address the needs of current or potential personnel in the following occupational categories:

machine operators; electrical, mechanical, and

other maintenance personnel; welders; electrical and electronics technicians; robotics technicians; mechanical designers and detailers;

printed circuit designers; electrical drafters

and designers; numerical control programmers;

general-purpose programmers; integrated circuit designers; piping designers and drafters;

manufacturing engineers; design engineers;

systems engineers; research and development

personnel; shop-floor supervisors; managers;

and executives.

Size of institution or organization.—Companies included range in size from firms employing under 170 individuals to multinational corporations employing hundreds of thousands

of people. In terms of the size of the organization served by a single training division, the

largest is 42,000. The educational institutions

range in size from 2,500 to 34,000 students.

Funding source. –Both public and private institutions and organizations are covered. Major public funding sources include Federal,

State, and local government organizations.

401
402 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—— .—— —— —— — ——- — — — — .—

The union/management-sponsored training

program is supported by regular contributions from union members and by management subsidy.

 Industrial sector. — Programs covered addressed the following industrial sectors: transportation equipment (including auto and commercial aircraft); electrical and electronic

devices and machinery; nonelectrical machinery; and programmable equipment producers.

Attempts were also made to identify successful programs in the metalworking industry.

Additionally, some programs were chosen because they demonstrated cooperation among educational institutions, industries, and (in one instance) State and local government participation.

Two questionnaires-one for companies and one

for educational institutions-were designed for use

during onsite interviews (lasting 2 to 5 days each)

conducted for each case study.
Appendix A —Selecfed Case Studies: Summaries 403

—

Case Study 1

Oakland County Vocational Education Centers:

and Computer-Aided Drafting For High School

Background/Summary

The Oakland County Intermediate School District covers approximately 900 square miles to the

north and west of Detroit. The intermediate district is comprised of 28 constituent school districts

and includes most of Oakland County and small

proportions of the adjacent counties of Macomb,

Wayne, Livingston, Tenessee, Lapeer, and Washtenaw.* The approximately 211,000 children in the

district live in communities of widely disparate

economic status: some are among the wealthiest

in the country, while others have disproportionate

numbers of families on State and Federal aid.**

In 1982, Pontiac, the largest constituent school

district, had an unemployment rate of over 20

percent.

In 1967, voters in the intermediate district

passed a half-mill levy to pay the construction

costs for four area vocational education centers,

one in each quarter of the county. The four centers—operated under contract to Oakland Schools

by the constituent districts of Pontiac, Royal Oak,

Walled Lake, and Clarkston-offer programs in 32

occupational areas. Three 21⁄2 hour sessions—

morning, early afternoon, and late afternoon—are

offered for high school students, who spend the remainder of their school day at the “home’ high

schools; and the centers all operate evening classes

for adults. The flexible vocational instruction offered at the centers complements the vocational

education provided at high schools that operate

individual vocational programs. The centers also

provide basic-through-advanced instruction for

students from schools that have no vocational programs of their own. Students who participate in

a full 2-year course of study at a center get 900

hours of combined classroom and laboratory instruction in a specific vocational area.***

—-.

*This is Oakland Schools, a brochure published by the Oakland Intermediate District, explains that “in Michigan, every local school district is a part of an intermediate district; there is no exempt territory.

The intermediate school district is a regional educational service agency

created by State law to carry out certain legal functions at the direction of the State Department of Education,

● * This is Oaklans and Schools.

***The number of hours in vocational education curricula is mandated

by the State and is comparable to that offered in comprehensive high

schools.

Oakland Schools also provides

Robotics

Students

an additional aid

to vocational progaming in both the local districts

and the regional centers: curriculum specialists on

the vocational education staff at the Oakland

County Service Center assist instructors in applying current instructional technology, in keeping

program content up to date, in obtaining funds

and equipment, and in maintaining contact with

local industries.

In the summer of 1982, the Pontiac Center offered a special 4-week introductory robotics program for incoming juniors and seniors. The intensive 64-hour course was a demonstration program

designed to test the feasibility of teaching robotics

and other “high tech” courses in the centers’ regular school-year and summer offerings. As a result

of the successful summer program, robotics and

computer-aided drafting are now taught in a number of regular courses in three of the area centers.

The centers have approached the teaching of integrated manufacturing skill in a variety of ways:

1) teachers at the Pontiac Center have designed

a semester-long course in robotics offered for the

first time in January 1983; 2) the Royal Oak Center

has obtained two computer-aided drafting stations

for use in mechanical and architectural drafting

courses, and instructors there are using homemade

robots to teach basic robotics principles in fluid

power and electronics courses; and 3) the Walled

Lake Center also has a CAD system for use in its

drafting program, and instructors are now using

the Mini-Mover “teach robot”* from the Pontiac

summer course to teach electronics, welding, industrial design and machine-shop students the

fundamentals of robotics as these relate to the

students’ core disciplines.

Summer Robotics Program North East

Oakland Vocational Education Center

(Pontiac, Mich.)

Planning and Development.–The summer robotics demonstration program was conceived during an informal conversation between a vocational

*Teach-robots are miniature, table-top electric robots useful for

teaching programing and robot motions.
404 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

education curriculum specialist from Oakland

Schools Service Center and the principal of the

Pontiac Vocational Education Center. Although

the amount of time from initial conception (March

1982) to approval by the Oakland Schools’ superintendent’s committee (June 2, 1982) to program

implementation (June 28) was short, the preplanning which enabled Oakland instructors, curriculum specialists, and administrators to create the

program on such short notice had been going on

for the past 10 years.

The preplanning began not with robotics itself

but with an ad-hoc group of instructors and curriculum specialists meeting informally to explore

the utilization of computer technology in the classroom. Five years ago, the computer group began

preparing for robotics and other industrial applications of computer technology by making-and

maintaining g—industrial contacts, expanding their

working knowledge of microcomputers and programmable controllers, and familiarizing themselves with robotics. All this, according to the curriculum specialist who spearheaded the group, was

done in anticipation of the time when robotics

would be recognized as a suitable subject for high

school vocational education.

Because of the necessity of waiting for the proper moment when public interest in robotics would

be high enough to encourage the Oakland Schools’

superintendents’ committee to pass on such a program proposal, the preplanningg was necessarily informal. The years of informal planning, however,

proved to be productive; when the board’s approval was received in the beginning of June, the computer-group members were able to bring together

a team of teachers with expertise in electronics,

physics, machining, and computer programing

who both devised the curriculum and delivered the

instruction. The Service Center curriculum specialist and the Pontiac Center principal bought some

equipment and contacted industrial representatives who donated or loaned the remainder and–

with the help of the instructors-arranged for field

trips to local user and producer firms and for guest

lectures by application engineers, sociologists and

others.

Goals.–The program was designed to meet two

sets of objectives. The immediate instructional objectives were to familiarize the students with the

fundamentals of robotics to help them make future

career and educational decisions, and to increase

their awareness of and interest in high technology

in general. The long-range goals were: 1) to develop, implement, and make necessary modifications

to the curricular materials with the object of providing them to secondary and postsecondary educational institutions offering robotics instruction;

2) to develop a core of people within the public educational system with knowledge of robotics; and

3) to demonstrate that a public educational organization is capable of initiating robotics programs

in a timely fashion.

Administrative and Instructional Staff.–The

summer program staff consisted of two administrators, five teachers, and three student programing aides. The chief administrator for the program,

the principal of the Pontiac Center, was responsible for student enrollment, obtaining the equipment, arranging for the students to receive academic credit, and other administrative requirements; the Oakland Schools Service Center curriculum specialist coordinated all curricular activities. The team of five instructors developed the

instructional materials and designed and delivered

the coursework; and the student aides (two college

students and one high school senior) were on hand

to help with programing and writing software for

the Apple computers used to interface with the

small teach robots used in the course. All of the

instructors had a minimum of 2,000 hours of industrial experience,’ two were members of the Education Committee of Robotics International of

the Society of Manufacturing Engineers, and some

had experience teaching and writing curricula for

colleges and other post-secondary institutions.

Facilities and Equipment. -Classes were held in

a large classroom-laboratory in the Pontiac Center.

Equipment used in the program included four

desk-top teach robots (two of which were purchased, two of which were borrowed from distributors), six Apple computers, three cathode ray terminals (CRTs), two DEC writers (strike-on terminals) and electrical and electronic test equipment.

Student Selection.–Because approval for the

program was received at the end of the regular

school year (June 2), student selection procedures

were highly informal. The program admini strators

discussed the program with the guidance counselors in all of the high schools served by the Pontiac Center. By the time the board’s approval was

announced, however, most of the high schools had

started their final examination periods or had released their students for the summer. Schools in

two large districts, Pontiac and Rochester, responded by announcing the program over their

public address systems, requesting that all interested sophomores and juniors apply. Fifteen of the

sixteen applicants were selected, and all but one
completed the 4-week course. Interviewers looked

for college-bound students with strong math and

physics backgrounds and with some experience in

electronics and/or computers. Approximately 75

percent of the applicants had the recommended

background knowledge; the remainder of those admitted were chosen because of their high level of

interest in the program. Of the 14 students who

completed the program, one was female and one

was from a minority group.

Curriculum. -Classroom and laboratory instruction was complemented by field trips to Pontiac

Motors, ASEA’s midwest robot facility, and a local robotics show. Students also heard guest lectures by industrial representatives from Pontiac

Motor Division, ASEA, ETON Corp., and the Kasper Machine Co., and by two sociologists who

talked about the social implications of robotics.

The following topic areas were covered in lectures

and reinforced by field trips, demonstrations, and

laboratory experiments:

●

●

●

●

●

●

History and classification—Factors influencing the growth of robotics in industry; manufacturing processes in which robots are utilized; definition and description of robots and

their component parts; robot classifications

(nonservo, point-to-point servo- controlled,

and continuous-path servo-controlled); description of commercially available robots;

and the potential areas of growth in robotics.

Simple machine process and robot terminology-Description of simple machine functions

and the relationship between robot designand-function terminology and the basic terminology of machine design.

Basics of electricity and motor operation

control—An introduction to selected fundamentals of electricity and electronics, specifically DC power distribution and simple DC

circuits. Students learned to use basic instruments to monitor electrical power and to locate malfunctioning segments.

Microcomputer operation and programing–

Lectures and demonstrations of computer

operation and practical experience in computer programing.

Robotic drive systems-A segment in which

students learned how to address the teach robots with standard computer programs and

prepared specific programs for robot operation.

Robot applications-Review of manufacturing operations related to robot applications

and field trips to design and manufacturing

facilities.

Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries • 405

● Opportunities in robotics—Examination of

the employment opportunities in the field of

robotics; requirements of various job classifications as they relate to the individual’s development of skills and academic knowledge.

Had the superintendent’s committee approval

been received earlier, the instructors would have

attempted to add another 2-week segment covering pneumatics and hydraulics. Lack of time and

difficulty in obtaining equipment, however, made

this impossible.

Instructional Methods and Materials.–The

choice of a team-teaching approach was dictated

by the interdisciplinary nature of robotics itself

and also by necessity—no one teacher in the Oakland system had all of the background knowledge

and skills required to teach the full 4-week program. However, the team of instructors worked

well together, and each individual member of the

team enhanced his own knowledge of related fields

while imparting his particular expertise to the students. The lead instructor–who was on hand at

all times to teach specific class segments, guide

the students through experiments, and to provide

continuity as the course moved from segment to

segment—was an electricity instructor employed

full-time at the Pontiac Center. Industrial representatives taught the basics of robotics; a physics

instructor taught the unit on simple machine processes and aided the students as they conducted

physics experiments; an electronics instructor

from the Walled Lake Center taught the segments

on electricity and electronics; and a programing

instructor from another intermediary district

taught the basics of programing.

The first 2 days of the program consisted of introductory lectures, films, demonstrations, and a

field trip to Pontiac Motors, where the students

saw industrial robots in operation and visited the

robotics training laboratory. From the third day

through the end of the course, the majority of

classtime was spent in practical laboratory work,

progressing from experiments in basic physics and

electricity through robot programing. Because of

the limited time available for each segment and the

students’ impatience with lengthy explanations of

a theoretical nature, the instructors had to condense all of the material and be highly selective

in the presentation of some of the topics. The necessity to condense and select was most challenging in the 3-day electricity/electronics segment

which, after an introductory lecture in basic electricity and the importance of electronics to the

study of robotics, concentrated on DC power distribution and simple DC circuits.
406 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace — — . — —

As in the other segments of the course, the object in the electricity segment was to familiarize

the students with some of the basic concepts and–

most importantly-to whet their interest and encourage them to pursue studies providing them

with more complete knowledge of the disciplines

making up robotics.

The instructors also worked as a team to develop

the curriculum and written materials for the

course. Since no texts, manuals, or experiments

appropriate to secondary-level teaching were available, the instructors-aided by the curriculum specialist and by experts from industry—developed

laboratory manuals, experiments, a robotics glossary, and handouts defining and describing robot

functions, components, and classifications. In addition, the instructors developed computer software for use by the students in programing experiments.

Student Evaluations of the Program.– In written evaluations, most students noted that they

had enjoyed the class. The majority were impressed by the team-teaching approach and the opportunities for individualized instruction. A number stated that they intended to pursue robotics

studies and some claimed that the course helped

them to decide on a future career in robotics. Some

students noted the lack of training in hydraulics

and suggested that it should be included were the

course to be repeated. The other criticism received

was from two students who felt that the electricity segment was too theoretical.

The instructors are now considering methods of

dealing with the electronics segment in future familiarization courses. Suggestions include: 1) placing the segment later in the course when students

would be better able to understand its relevance;

2) making provisions for a supplemental class for

those with no background in basic electricity; and

3) teaching electronics as it applies to robotics,

rather than beginning with pure electricity/electronics.

All of those who completed the course received

a half unit of credit, which was entered on their

high school transcripts (one credit equals a full

semester-long course).

Relationships With Industry.–1n the spring of

1982, program administrators and members of the

instructional team met with General Motors (GM)

representatives from the Orion Plant (a new facility with over 160 robots, which, at the time, was

under construction) and from Pontiac Motor Division to determine the feasibility and appropriateness of offering robotics on the secondary level.

The GM representatives and other industrial contacts agreed that introductory courses in robotics

on the secondary level would not only benefit the

students by providing them with an orientation

to the field, but benefit industry by raising public

awareness and student interest.

These industrial contacts, made in the preproposal stage of the program, also proved to be fruitful in the curriculum planning and program operation stages. The Pontiac Motors representative

not only worked with the instructors to develop

the curriculum, but delivered the introductory lecture to the first class and arranged for a field trip

to the Pontiac plant. Other industrial representatives from firms that produce, distribute, and use

automated machinery donated time and equipment to the program. While no formal industrial

advisory committee was established before the

summer program was offered, the curriculum specialist who helped administer the program (who is

also the vocational/technical coordinator for the

Oakland district) has set up an informal committee to provide advice on present and future programs and coursework.

Relationships With Labor Unions.–Local labor

unions were not involved in the summer program,

primarily because school officials looked on the

summer course as a test case which would help

them to develop prototype curricular materials

which, they felt, were needed before asking for

union advice or participation. Before the downturn

in the area economy, local labor and company officials actively recruited students from the vocational education centers in the district, so that

school representatives believe that union participation in an advisory capacity would be appropriate for computer-aided manufacturing coursework.

Vocational education representatives are now

making informal contacts with union shopworkers

and hope to increase the level of contact with local

unions in the near future.

Results.–Apart from achieving its objective of

providing the participating students with an orientation to robotics, the summer program had a

number of other salutary results. As one of the

country’s first robotics programs on the secondary

level, it generated a great deal of public interest

and received coverage in local newspapers, on local

television stations, and in publications like the

Manpower and Vocational Education Weekly and

publications of the American Vocational Association. This positive publicity not only helped to convince school board officials of the viability of high

school programs in robotics and other high-tech-
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 407

nology areas, but generated the beginnings of a

communications network between Oakland

Schools and other high schools both in- and outof-State. The vocational education curriculum specialist who coordinated the program has received

over 60 letters and calls from high schools, colleges, universities, and industries from across the

country, all of which are either interested in establishing programs or have already done so. The local

publicity also increased student interest in other

programs offered by the centers, The Pontiac Center, for example, attributes an increase in enrollment for its electricity course to interest engendered by the robotics program. Enrollment increased from 35 in fall 1981 to 50 (capacity enrollment for two sections) in fall 1982.

Another result of the program can be seen in the

current offerings of three of the Oakland vocational education centers (discussed in sec. II) and

in a number of local high schools in the constituent districts served by the centers. The equipment

purchased for the summer program is now in use

in two of the centers. Most of the instructors who

participated in the program brought robotics into

their regular school-year classes (either as a segment in existing courses or as a free-standing, semester-long course) in the centers or in local high

schools; and other instructors in the centers are

now offering or planning to offer coursework in robotics or computer-aided design. The summer program also helped Oakland School officials to set

up an articulation process with local private

schools, community colleges, universities, and

three industrial robotics programs.

The district is setting up a formal articulation

agreement with nearby Oakland Community College whereby students who take robotics coursework in the Oakland Schools will receive advanced

standing in the college’s robotics program. The articulation process with the other schools and programs is, to date, informal. Other tangible results

include the curricular and instructional material

developed by the summer instructors-manuals,

instructional units (both lectures and experiments), computer software designed for student

use, the robotics glossary, and a study analyzing

the reading level required for currently available

robotics texts. These materials, and the experience

gained in developing them, are now being put to

use in classroom and laboratories throughout the

district and will be refined and expanded in the immediate future.
408 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— -- — - — .— .— . — ... —

Case Study 2

Brigham Young University: The Education

of Technologists

Summary/Background

The College of Engineering and Technology.–

Brigham Young University (BYU)–with a main

campus in Provo, Utah, and a campus in Hawaii—

is the largest private university in the United

States. Founded in 1875 as the Brigham Young

Academy, an elementary school with 29 students,

BYU currently has an enrollment of approximately 28,000 at its Provo campus and over 1,800 in

Hawaii. While its primary intent is to provide

undergraduate education, BYU does maintain a

number of graduate programs on the master’s and

doctoral levels which have a combined graduate

enrollment of 2,890.

Brigham Young University’s College of Engineering and Technology has a total enrollment of

approximately 3,400 students working on undergraduate and graduate degrees in six departments:

chemical engineering, civil engineering, electrical

engineering, mechanical engineering, industrial education, and technology. The four engineering departments offer traditionally structured undergraduate engineering programs and masters- and

Ph. D.-level graduate degrees. The technology department offers three programs leading to the baccalaureate degree (manufacturing engineering

technology, design engineering technology, and

electronics engineering technology), and a master’s

program in computer-integrated manufacturing

with program options in computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) and computer-aided design (CAD),

and elective courses in computer-aided testing

(CAT). In the fall semester of 1983, the technology

department began to offer a graduate program

leading to the degree of master of technology

management.

Engineering Technology.–In 1967, BYU became the first educational institution in the country to receive accreditation from the Engineers

Council for Professional Development (now known

as the Accreditation Board for Engineering and

Technology, or ABET) for its baccalaureate programs in manufacturing engineering technology

and design engineering technology. In 1971,

BYU’S B.S. program in electronics engineering

technology was also accredited by ABET.

While engineering technology is closely related

to engineering-and while the education of engineers and technologists overlaps in many areas—

there are significant differences between the two

disciplines. BYU’S College of Engineering and

Technology offers the following definitions which

clarify the distinctions:

●

●

Engineering is the profession in which a

knowledge of the mathematical and natural

sciences gained by study, experience, and

practice is applied with judgment to develop

ways to utilize economically the materials and

forces of nature for the benefit of mankind.

Technology is that part of the technological

field which requires-the application of scientific and engineering knowledge and methods

combined with technical skills in support of

engineering activities; it occupies a position

on the occupational spectrum between the

craftsman and the engineer at the end of the

spectrum closest to the engineer.1

Technologists, in essence, are applied engineers.

This may at first seem to be a misnomer, since engineering is traditionally considered to be an applied discipline. However, a brief overview of developments in engineering education in the United

States over the past 25 years clarifies the issue.

When the U.S. space program began in the late

1950’s and early 1960’s, engineering schools began

responding to the increased need for scienceoriented courses by adding advanced courses in

mathematics, physics, and chemistry tO their curricula. In the process, traditional engineering laboratory courses in drafting, machining, and processing were dropped out of the curricula to make

room for the more theoretical courses required to

meet the needs of sophisticated space-age technology. As technical knowledge and applications multiplied, the gap spread between engineers, whose

education was becoming increasingly theoretical,

and technicians engaged in manufacturing and design occupations, Baccalaureate technology programs (some began as 2-year technician programs,

while others were originally designed as 4-year pro-

—

‘Brochure, College of Engineering Sciences and Technology, p. 9
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 409

grams) were created to bridge the occupational gap

between the engineer and the technician.

According to BYU representatives, it is no longer possible for one person to master the skills and

knowledge required to cover the spectrum from

conceptualization to the manufacture of a final

product. Now, the idea for a product often originates with marketing, engineering, or management; the engineers and technologists work as a

team to develop the layout and detailed design and

to test the prototype product. The technologist

and engineer work together to plan, design, and

test the machines or procedures for building a system or its components, and then the craftsmen and

machine operators bring about the actual production. * In terms of theoretical orientation, the progression goes from abstract at the design research

engineer’s end, to highly practical at the technician’s and craftsman’s end. While the engineer,

then, may be interested in why a system, product,

or procedure performs so that he/she can create

plans or designs, the technologist is concerned

with how that system, product, or procedure performs so that the engineering plans can be applied

in practice and are implemented in the most productive manner.

Engineering Technology Programs at BYU.–

BYU’S Technology Department has gained national prominence, especially among industrial employers, many of whom say that the technology graduates have precisely those skills most in demand

by firms implementing computer-aided manufacturing, design, and applied electronics procedures.

Created with industrial needs in mind, the technology programs at BYU were quick to incorporate computer-aided techniques and machinery. In

the early 1970’s, individual faculty members in the

manufacturing and design programs began exploring ways of acquiring computer-aided equipment

to enable them to integrate CAD and CAM into

the undergraduate curricula, and they initiated a

number of research projects. In addition, data

communications and real-time computer control

were developed.

One research project used group technology

classifications to create what has now evolved into

DCLASS-a computer program that classifies, organizes, and retrieves information to assist in process planning, material selection, circuit design,

generation of time staildards, and other industrial

*The Accreditatlorr Board for Engineering and Technology IABET1

also recogniz{,s the r-mmsity of engineers and tcchnologrsts working

together as a team in industrial projects. According to ABET representati~es, it is for this reason that over 700 associate and bachelor

le~’el technology programs have been accredited since the 1 %0’s.

applications. DC0LASS is now licensed by 20 companies for use in 50 plants, and revenues received

from the sale of DCLASS licenses help to support

continuing research into computer-aided manufacturing by BYU faculty and students. In 1977, the

technology department instituted a master of science degree program in computer-aided manufacturing; the program has expanded over the years

to encompass computer-aided design and computer-aided electronics testing and is now known as

the Computer Integrated Manufacturing Program. The masters program and the undergraduate programs in manufacturing engineering technology and design engineering technology are the

primary subjects of this study. *

In recent years, BYU’S traditional engineering

departments have been building their capacity in

what they refer to as computer-assisted engineer- ing* and have joined with the technology department to form the Computer Assisted Design, Engineering, and Manufacturing (CADEM) Committee to coordinate the use of computers within the

College of Engineering and Technology and to increase communication and cooperation between

departments.

Engineering Technology: Education

and Research Activities

A common misperception by outside observers—including a number of BYU faculty and

students outside the technology department-is

that the department offers undergraduate programs in computer-aided design and manufacturing. Actually, however, while computer-aided

methodologies and techniques are incorporated

into the curricula of the three technology programs

whenever appropriate, the programs themselves

focus on providing students with a strong foundation in the basics of the three disciplines–

design, manufacturing, and electronics–augmented by computer techniques currently in use

in industry. It is at the master’s level that the technology programs focus solidly on computer-aided

manufacturing and design.

The incorporation of computer-aided techniques

and coursework into the undergraduate curricula

*The electronics technology program currently lags behind the other

two technology programs in incorporating computer-aided techniques.

This parallels the relative lag of industry in computer-aided electronic

testing. This program will therefore receive less attention in the present study,

** Computer-assisted engineering (CAE) is defined by BYL engineering faculty as “the application of computers to the whole range of calculation and simulation tasks needed for modern professional engineering , including finite element analysis and routines for optimization,

linkage synthesis graphics, and numerical utility.
410 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

varies from program to program-reflecting 1) current industrial practices in the three disciplines;

2) the varying amount of conventional manufacturing and design skills required by the different

disciplines; and 3) the availability of industrial

equipment. Thus, the design curriculum is most

suffused with computer-aided techniques and applications both because of the large amount of

CAD equipment in the department and because

of the rapid spread of computer-aided design in industrial settings.

The manufacturing program, while it is provided

with well-equipped labs, stresses conventional

manufacturing techniques for the first 3 years of

study to provide the foundation for the advanced

computer-aided manufacturing techniques and applications taught in senior and graduate-level

classes. The electronics program is the least involved in computer-aided applications-a reflection of the relatively late development of computer-aided testing (CAT) technology and difficulty

in obtaining CAT and process instrumentation

equipment.

Undergraduate Programs: Common Features.–

Goals.- The particular goals and objectives of

individual programs are discussed in the program

descriptions. The technology department as a

whole, however, has identified a number of goals

which have a significant general impact on the curricula and instruction in all of the programs. Some

general goals are to “educate the ‘whole person’ “

by requiring students to take a broad variety of

general education courses and to instill in the students a recognition of the necessity of “life-long

learning. ” While life-long learning is, in the most

basic sense, the responsibility of the individual, the

graduate who stops learning rapidly becomes obsolete when he or she leaves school and enters a

technical field. For this reason, the technology faculty places major emphasis on bolstering the students’ commitments to learn how to learn on their

own; to keep themselves apprised of new developments in their professional fields; and to continually update their skills and knowledge.

Faculty. -Two distinguishing features mark the

members of the technology faculty. First, all have

had significant industrial experience in their instructional fields. That experience ranges from a

minimum of 3 to 5 years in industry to a maximum

of 10 or more years. Second, while industrial experience is required of the faculty, doctoral degrees

are not required. Of the 16 full-time faculty

members, 6 have doctoral degrees and the remainder have masters’ degrees in technology or engineering. Although the department actively encourages its faculty to engage in research and to publish the results, that research is often of a practical and applications-oriented nature.

Teaching Methods and Materials. -All of the

technology programs emphasize practical experimentation and application of the theoretical material taught in the classroom. The programs require that approximately 50 percent of the students’ time be spent in laboratory work. Comments by both students and faculty, however, indicate that many students spend more than the

required amount of time in the laboratories, so

that the ratio of lab work to class work may actually be higher than one-to-one. Another instructional method in the department is the assignment

of actual industrial projects to undergraduate students. Instructors on the design faculty, for example, are frequently requested to use the school’s

CAD equipment to perform benchmark studies of

company drawings to help them determine the efficiency of a CAD system for the company’s particular purposes. The studies themselves are assigned as projects to upper-division design students, who thereby gain actual industrial experience.

Other advanced students participate in similarly practical research projects conducted or coordinated by department faculty. Several technology

faculty members are now working on computeraided learning techniques and instructional systems, one of which-the Computer Aided Simulation Training System (CAST)–is being developed

for use in both industrial and educational manufacturing programs. When the CAST project is completed, the learning package will contain a total

of 300 learning modules—each providing instruction on a specific manufacturing process. As these

modules are developed, they are incorporated into

the manufacturing curricula at BYU.

One problem facing the department is the unavailability of appropriate textbooks in the CAD,

CAM, and applied electronics areas. Since

textbooks on technology quickly become outdated,

the department is continually looking for other

ways of supplying students with written material. A “Group Technology Collection” has been

established in the university library to give students access to the growing number of reports and

articles on productivity, manufacturing processes,

and new developments in hardware, software, computerized data bases, and other topics. In addition,

copies of monographs discussing current topics in

manufacturing and design are reproduced and dis-
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 411

—— . — — — —

tributed to students for their personal collections.

Another “library” resource, although not textual,

is a growing “parts library” containing a collection of manufactured parts, which are used in the

classroom to illustrate the end-products of the

manufacturing processes being studied.

Enrollment Trends. –Enrollment in technology

department programs has tripled in the last 3

years. Currently, there are just under 1,000 students enrolled in the three undergraduate programs: approximately 210 in manufacturing, 220

in electronics, and over 550 in design. This poses

a problem for the department and the university

in that even the new facility will only be capable

of accommodating 900 students. Consequently, a

policy of “enrollment control” has been introduced

on a university-wide basis. Since enrollments in all

of the technology programs are increasing, and the

manufacturing and electronics programs are expected to reach enrollments of up to 300 each within the next 5 years, the design program enrollment

will be gradually reduced over the coming years.

Of the approximately 1,000 students, fewer than

50 are women, and most of them are enrolled in

the design program. * More detailed discussion of

enrollment trends can be found in the program

descriptions,

Cooperative Education.– The College of Engineering and Technology operates an active cooperative education program which gives students

the opportunity to integrate their academic studies with periods of work experience. Some of the

traditional engineering departments tend to discourage students from entering the cooperative education (co-op) program by structuring the curriculum into a lock-step sequence which creates difficulties for students who spend time off-campus.

The technology department, on the other hand,

actively encourages its students to take advantage

of the co-op program. Approximately 45 percent

of the 128 students enrolled in the college’s co-op

program in 1981-82 were technology students who

worked at such firms as Boeing, GE, General Dynamics, Ford Aerospace, Honeywell, Eaton-Kenway, and Westinghouse. Aside from the obvious

advantage of obtaining practical experience to

supplement academic knowledge and laboratory

—

● I n recent years, BYU has been actively encouraging ‘‘equal opportunity and rights for women students. ” According to the technology

department chairman, women who graduate from any of the department programs will have an excellent chance of being hired because

of equal employment opportunity programs. While the number of

women in the design program is growing, many women drop out of the

manufacturing program Technology department faculty say that this

is primarily because a number of women are uncomfortable with

manufacturing laboratory work.

skills, a large number of technology students have

the additional advantage of discovering through

experience whether or not they want to accept the

permanent job offers they usually receive from the

co-op employers.

Ironically, the success of the co-op program has

created a problem for the department in that a

number of employers have tried to convince their

co-op students to stay on with the firm rather than

return to school to complete their degrees. Another

problem, which is somewhat limiting to some technology students, is the geographical isolation of

the Provo campus and the consequent necessity

for over half of the co-op students to relocate temporarily to accept out-of-state employment.

Furthermore, a large number of BYU undergraduates are married-many with young families.

These students, especially, find it difficult to

accept an out-of-state co-op assignment. For these

and other reasons—including competition from

o ” the downward trend in the economy

(w used a number of firms to discontinue

the programs), and increasing pressure on

the university to turn out graduates-the co-op

program has tapered off in recent years from a

peak of 285 students in 1979-80 to 128 in 1980-82.

Nevertheless, it still receives the support of the college and the active participation of technology

students.

Counseling and Career Guidance.–The university counseling center offers both group and individual counseling for students with personal or

academic problems, and the engineering college advisement center provides specific advice on engineering and technology programs. The university

also has a career education program that provides

the following services: 1) courses on life planning

and decisionmaking, career exploration, and employment strategies; 2) interest testing; and 3) academic and occupational counseling.

In spite of all of these formal counseling and

guidance channels, some technology faculty members feel that a great deal of the students’ time and

money is wasted because they do not receive comprehensive interest- and ability-testing when they

are admitted to the university. This lack is felt

most keenly in the technology department, where

a major portion of the undergraduates are transfer

students from other colleges and departments. Although some of these students discover the technology department through regular counseling

channels, the vast majority learn of the department and the content of its curricula almost by

accident—through friends, chance conversations,

or parties outside the University.
412 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

— — —

Manufacturing Engineering Technology .–Like

its sister program in design technology, the manufacturing technology program was organized in

1960 and accredited by what is now known as

ABET in 1967. The program was constructed in

such a way that, over the years, it has been able

to accommodate the industrial trend toward computer-assisted processes and equipment without

significantly altering its original focus. At the

same time, the program has been refined over the

years to minimize duplication, improve the course

sequence, establish meaningful prerequisites, and

give students flexibility in choosing areas of

concentration.

Both the instructional program and the major

research projects of the faculty and students are

characterized by a highly systematic approach.

That approach relies on the following:

●

●

●

Definition of the subject matter (in this case

manufacturing), its essential elements, and

the activities involved;

Identification of the need for a program in

manufacturing technology and the processes

and approaches to be employed to meet that

need; and

Classification of the processes and components of manufacturing to form the basis_ of

a systematic approach to teaching and research. The notion of classification as employed by the manufacturing faculty rests on

the following description: “Classification not

only assists the memory by arranging individual items into groups, but also expresses a relationship of things and leads to the discovery

of their laws."2 BYU’S approach is based on

an attempt to discover the laws governing

manufacturing-including economic laws,

laws of physics, metallurgy, control systems,

etc.—define them, and teach them to the students.

BYU bases its manufacturing curriculum on a

broad definition which encompasses the total manufacturing enterprise: “the series of interrelated

activities and operations that involve product design, planning, producing, materials acquisition

and control, quality assurance, management and

marketing of discrete consumer and producer

goods. ” Manufacturing activities are classified

into nine categories: product design activity,

marketing, management, material control, manufacturing engineering, finances and personnel,

production, and quality assurance. While the curriculum at BYU focuses primarily on one of those

2Dr. Dell Allen, Professor, Brigham Young University.

activities—manufacturing engineering-it also

attempts to provide a background in the others.

To create the manufacturing curriculum, faculty members drew on their own industrial experience, informal industrial contacts, and a number

of formal surveys and studies to assess industrial

need, opinions of manufacturing educators, and requirements of accreditation agencies. After an exhaustive evaluation of the manufacturing discipline, the faculty found that the major factor distinguishing manufacturing engineers from those

in other disciplines is the ability to do manufacturing planning and estimating. That ability, in

turn, is built on knowledge of materials and metallurgy, production tooling, quality assurance, production information and control systems, plant

layout and material handling, manufacturing systems and management.

The core courses developed to form the basis of

the manufacturing technology curriculum are,

therefore, those which develop the skills and

knowledge required for manufacturing planning

and estimating. * These are supplemented by special education courses in economics, mathematics,

statistics and computer science, physical science,

and electronics and design technology which provide the students with basic knowledge of other

manufacturing activities related to their discipline.

Also required are general and liberal education

courses.

Program Goals and Objectives. -–The two major

goals of the manufacturing engineering technology

program are: 1) to give the students opportunities

for individual development; and 2) to prepare them

with the latest knowledge and skills needed to lead

or supervise personnel engaged in manufacturing

operations, and to help in the development of new

products and processes.** To achieve those goals,

students are provided with theoretical instruction

linked to extensive application experience. The

core coursework is planned around eight specific

areas of study which correspond to the requirements for manufacturing planning and estimating

*To further refine the curriculum, the faculty conducted a survey of

graduates of 13 manufacturing technology programs, their managers,

and educators from the institutions offering the programs. Tabulated

results of the survey were then evaluated by seven experts, who also

voted on various performance objectives to be maintained in manufacturing curricula. These performance objectives were also incorporated

into BYU manufacturing technology curricula.

**The following comment by a Bechtel Corp. representative should

be noted: “The hard, cold, practical fact is that anyone with any type

of engineering education will aspire to be called an engineer, and there

is not the nice, clean interface that the educators think there is between

the duties of the many people engaged in an engineering-oriented program, be it design, construction, manufacturing, or operations. ” (Quoted

from Engineering Technology Education Study Final Report, p. 51.)
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 413

.-———————. .

discussed above. These eight areas are: 1) manufacturing planning, 2) manufacturing processes

and materials, 3) manufacturing development, 4)

production tool and machine design, 5) production

planning and control, 6) plant layout and materials handling, 7) inspection and quality assurance,

and 8) manufacturing management. Specific objectives have been developed for each area of study.

Space limitations preclude a full listing of the

objectives listed under each area. The objectives

for instruction in manufacturing planning, therefore, will serve as an example. Those objectives are

as follows:

● To familiarize the student with the function

of discrete component manufacturing systems and the characteristics, analysis, and

synthesis of such systems with emphasis on

computer-aided manufacturing planning.

• To aid the student in developing the ability

to analyze parts and products for manufacturing feasibility, to plan process operations and

sequence, to estimate manufacturing costs,

and to select manufacturing tools, machines,

and equipment.

● To explore the various technical aspects of

automation and numerical control systems

(including labor-management responsibilities);

to give students experience in manual and

computer-aided numerical control programing; and to give them experience working in

local industries to solve manufacturing problems through the use of mechanization and automation.

Computer-aided processes and techniques are incorporated into the coursework when appropriate;

it should again be stressed, however, that the undergraduate curriculum emphasizes and builds on

conventional manufacturing techniques and processes which serve as a foundation for the study

of computer-aided manufacturing.

Facilities and Equipment.–The manufacturing

technology laboratories are distributed through

four buildings on the campus. The laboratories—

some of which are shared with the Mechanical Engineering and Industrial Education Departments—occupy over 15,000 square feet (total) and

include facilities for machine-tool operations, fluid

power experiments, casting processes, metal forming, metallurgy, quality assurance, materials science, welding, metal forming, and advanced welding. Also available are a CAD computer area and

a large machine-tool-performance and CAM lab.

A comprehensive listing of the conventional and

computer-aided equipment available to manufacturing technology students is not consistent with

the space limitations of the present study. Following is a description of the major equipment items

in the CAM Laboratory:

●

●

●

●

●

a high-performance Evans and Sutherland

graphics system for use in process simulation

and material flow studies;

fabrication equipment, including a 3-axis computer-controlled milling machine used for

undergraduate instruction and for some prototype production, and a Sheldon CNC lathe

equipped with an Allen Bradley controller;

two material storage systems-an Eaton Kenway mini-load stacker and a White Company

carousel unit—used in conjunction with the

manufacturing program’s plant layout and

material-handling course. The two systems

are also used for storage of tooling and

in-process inventory;

an ASEA industrial robot capable of welding,

grinding, inspection, assembly and motor rewinding which is used in graduate and undergraduate projects; and

a 3-axis Cordax Model 1000 coordinate inspection machine, which will soon be supplemented by in-process sensors—including laser

scanning devices and equipment for measuring force, temperature, position, and velocity.

The CAM laboratory has three major uses: 1)

teaching at both the undergraduate and graduate

levels; 2) R&D conducted by faculty and students;

and 3) demonstrations and seminars for faculty,

students, and industrial visitors. All of the production machines in the laboratory are computer-controlled to facilitate the development of a demonstration system in which all of the equipment will

be networked into a distributed manufacturing

system via common databases, To develop the proposed integrated system, the students and staff

are in the process of setting up a “CAM Mini-Lab”

where they can test the integrated manufacturing

process on a small scale before attempting to use

the full-size industrial equipment. Current equipment in the Mini-Lab consists of the following:

●

●

An IBM-PC System used to retrieve

a given part shape from a data file and to modify the basic dimensions to the required configuration. The output is then scaled and

plotted on a hard copy device.

The part information is then transmitted directly to an Apple CNC Lathe controller that
414 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—..———. —. ——— —— .-.. .—.—. —— —. -———

retrieves the cutter path routines to make the

part.

● A Microbot robot retrieves the part stock

from an automatic storage and retrieval system and inserts this part in the lathe chuck.

. The part itself is then automatically produced

on a minature CNC lathe.

In the near future, a miniature computer-controlled milling machine, a turret punch for sheet

metals, and a newly designed robot will be added

to simulate a fully integrated production facility.

Curriculum. -Freshmen begin with a course on

basic machine-tool operation and an overview of

the primary processes and materials used in manufacturing. They are also required to take basic

graphics or drafting courses from the design technology division and an “Introduction to Engineering and Technology” course required of all technology students. Sophomore- and junior-year studies focus primarily on the manufacturing processes

courses that form the backbone of the curriculum.

These processes include machining, welding, casting, forming, molding, and heat-treating, and are

supplemented by “related” technical courses in

material science, fluid power, and electronic control, and “supporting” courses in computer sciences, mathematics, physics, economics, and technical writing. Sophomores and juniors also take

courses in quality assurance, production planning,

and machine-tool performance.

While a number of the freshman- through juniorlevel courses include sections on computer-aided

manufacturing techniques, machines, and processes—most notably, the numerical control course,

which contains a lengthy section on computer-assisted programing-it is not until their senior year

that students may begin to focus on the curriculum’s “minor option” in computer-aided design or

manufacturing. At that stage, manufacturing students interested in design or programing may take

advanced CAD courses from the design section or

computer programing courses from the computer

science department. Those interested in computeraided manufacturing may take courses in robotics,

computer-aided materials handling, computeraided manufacturing systems, advanced N/C programing, N/C software development, and group

technology.

All of the manufacturing courses have an associated laboratory requirement, and students spend

approximately 50 percent of their time in the laboratories applying the theoretical material learned

in the classroom. All students are assigned a number of individual and group projects during the

course of their studies. The projects are designed

to foster analytical and creative problem-solving

capabilities, to help the students understand the

importance of proper design and good manufacturing planning, and to teach them how to work

as part of a development or production team.

A number of these projects are conducted as

part of a senior-level course titled “Manufacturing

Development Lab, ” which is designed to be the

culmination of the students’ training. Students in

this course are expected to use the concepts and

skills learned in previous processes and planning

courses to tool-up and produce usable products,

to perform in-depth manufacturing analyses, or engage in other production and planning activities

identical to those performed in industrial environments. Products produced by students in the development lab include an electrically driven wheat

mill and parts for a miniaturized turret punch

press to be used in the CAM Mini-Lab, together

with feasibility studies on the manufacture of the

press. Students have also participated in joint

projects with industry on plant layout and materials handling, machinability studies, and group

technology and material classification and coding

studies.

Enrollment Trends.–Beginning with two students in 1960, the manufacturing technology program has shown a relatively steady enrollment

growth over the past two decades. With a current

enrollment of 180 students, the program is expected to reach its enrollment ceiling of 250 students by 1985. The manufacturing program has

the lowest number of female students of all the

technology programs (three women are currently

enrolled) and the highest number of transfers from

other departments. In fact, very few of the Manufacturing Technology students enter the program

as freshmen; from 30 to 40 percent of the students

transfer from one of the engineering departments

while the remainder come from a variety of other

colleges and departments throughout the university.

An ongoing project within the manufacturing

section is the development and analysis of manufacturing student profiles. This study shows that

most manufacturing students have had from three

to five other majors before taking up manufacturing technology, have an average of 2 years of industrial experience, and are 26 years old when they

graduate. A recent study of approximately 30

manufacturing seniors indicates a number of similarities among those studied: their major interests

were in mechanical things, seeing things work, see-
Appendix —Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 415

— . —. — ————.— -. —————— . — —

ing how things work, technical production

management and supervision, and computer programing. Asked to assess their own abilities, the

students rabed themselves high in inventive ability, visualization of interaction among various components of a process, ability to do practical,

“hands-on” engineering, ability to organize and

schedule projects, ability to make decisions when

not all the facts are available, ability to work under

pressure, and ability to work well with people.

Placement.–From 95 to 99 percent of each

graduating class of manufacturing technologists

find jobs in industry. Most graduates receive multiple job offers at starting salaries that show a

steady increase year by year. Although current

salary information is not available, surveys of

1980-81 graduates show an average starting salary

of $23,500, with salaries ranging from $21,000 to

$27,600.

The majority of graduates are employed in the

automotive and aerospace industries, heavy equipment manufacturing, computer-related production, and firms producing high-technology ordnance materials, Among the companies most active in hiring BYU manufacturing technology

graduates are IBM, Texas instruments, Ford,

John Deere, Caterpillar, General Dynamics, General Electric, Hughes, U.S. Steel, Hewlett Packard,

Boeing, Lockheed, and Cummins Engine.

A large proportion of the graduates are hired as

manufacturing engineers; others are classified as

industrial engineers, process engineers, design engineers, quality-assurance engineers, research engineers, and production engineers. A significant

number go directly into management-most as

managers, some as management trainees. The remainder assume a variety of positions and are

hired as trainers, estimators, N/C programers, systems analysts, technical service representatives,

production schedulers, and lab technicians.

Design Engineering Technology .–The design

technology program was not only the first technology program in the United States to award a

baccalaureate degree in design and drafting* but

also the first 4-year program to be certified at the

engineering designer level by the American Institute for Design and Drafting (AIDD)** and, along

* According to the design technology faculty, many companies had

been forced to employ graduate engineers to fill design positions because

of industry’s growing need for qualified technical personnel. The design faculty viewed this process as “counterproductive in view of the

engineers’ sophisticated training and interests” and developed the design technology program to produce graduate designers specifically

trained to meet the industrial need.

* * AIDD is a professional group organized to advance the state of

the art in the industrial drafting and design community. The institute

has an educational arm which certifies high school, techncian-leiel (2-

year), and baccalaureate (4-vear) design programs.

with BYLT’s manufacturing technology program,

the first 4-year technology program to be accredited by ABET.

As the field of industrial drafting and design

adapted to computer-assisted techniques, the design technology faculty attempted, as best it

could, to keep pace with the rapid industrial advances. By the early 1970’s, students in the design

technology program were using APT part-programing language to complete manual programing and batch processing exercises, keying the

manually produced programs onto a Flexiwriter

which produced machine control tapes that were

then verified on a Gerber plotter. At the same

time, faculty members were actively exploring

ways of automating the design graphics processes

in the program by making contacts with industrial

representatives, keeping themselves informed of

the latest processes and their potential, and attending and speaking at professional gatherings.

It was at one such professional meeting–an

AIDD convention–that a design technology faculty member was approached by a representative of

Applicon, a major turnkey computer graphics

firm, who had been impressed by his presentation

describing the design program’s attempts to incorporate industrial techniques into its curriculum.

As a result of that meeting, Applicon eventually

donated a computer graphics system to the design

program. The one-terminal Applicon system was

installed in 1975 and the faculty began developing coursework to incorporate computer-aided design instruction into the curriculum.

During the past 8 years, the relationship between Applicon and BYU’S design technology section has remained strong and has resulted in the

donation of two new Applicon systems (one of

which replaced the original, already-outdated, system). In addition, because of the curricular advances made possible by the use of the Applicon

systems for instructional purposes, Computervision, GE-Calma, and other CAD systems have

either been donated by the producers or provided

at a minimal cost to the college (see section on Facilities and Equipment). The design curriculum

currently taught at BYU would not have been possible had the faculty been less successful in maintaining industrial contacts and encouraging industry to donate equipment.

Program Goals and Objectives.—The primary

goal of the design engineering technology program

is to ‘‘expose the student to challenging opportunities in mechanical design, including new materials, techniques, processes, etc., and thoroughly acquaint him with the current trends, ideology, and

tools of technical and computer-generated graph-
416 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—. —-—.

ics. ” The educational philosophy that supports

that goal is that “students must have a foundation in theory, coupled with viable applications experience, before education becomes truly meaningful. ” That philosophy, shared by the other sections

of the technology department, sets the technology

curricula apart from traditional engineering curricula and results in an instructional program in

which fully half of the student’s work is practical,

“hands-on” experimentation and application.

Among the technical objectives of the design

program are the following: 1) to familiarize the student with basic problems in design development,

including documentation and production techniques, precision dimensioning and tolerancing

(among these techniques are computer-assisted design, parametric design, and automation within

the design cycle); 2) to teach basic computer-aided

design, manufacturing, and engineering (CAD,

CAM, CAE) principles; 3) to assist the student in

becoming knowledgeable about the proper use of

modern production tools, machines, and equipment; 4) to aid the student in learning the basic

manufacturing processes and how to achieve economical production by selecting the proper process; 5) to acquaint students with numerical control systems and their applications; and 6) to provide students with opportunities to participate in

actual industry-related design problems.

Facilities and Equipment.–At present, the engineering sciences and technology building houses

four instructional laboratories containing interactive graphics and computer-aided desigm equipment. One of these laboratories, called “The Apple Lab, ” contains a total of 25 microcomputers

(including 8 Apples) that are programed to simulate many of the basic computer graphics functions of Computervision or Applicon systems. The

Apple Lab is used to train freshmen in the technology and engineering departments in the basics

of computer graphics. Students in more advanced

classes use sophisticated industrial equipment

located in the other instructional laboratories.

That equipment includes two Applicon 885 multiworkstation IMAGE configured systems (eight

workstations); a Computervision CADDS three

multiterminal system; a ComputerVision CADDS

four multiworkstation system; a Calma DDM system, also multiterminal; and a Tektronix 4054 system used principally by electronics students.

Curriculum. -In contrast to the manufacturing

technology curriculum—which stresses conventional manufacturing skills and knowledge in the

beginning of the programs and moves gradually

into computer-oriented processes on the senior and

graduate levels—the design curriculum focuses on

computer-aided techniques and applications from

the outset.* All design students study seven principal areas-graphic science standards, problem

analysis, planning, design synthesis, evaluation,

documentation, and application-all supplemented

by the computer systems in the school laboratories,

The design program builds on the basic design

and drafting skills and knowledge developed in the

required freshman and sophomore courses covering the fundamentals of engineering graphics, mechanical drafting (which includes automated drafting techniques), and principles of descriptive geometry. While computer-aided techniques are

taught as part of individual lower-division courses,

half of the required courses for juniors and seniors

focus entirely on computer graphics and computeraided design. Two of the six design courses required during the junior year, for example, are: 1)

“Professional Graphics Applications-Interactive

Computer Graphics,” and 2) “Computer-Aided De

sign-Interactive Graphics l.”

● ‘Professional graphics applications reviews the

development of computer graphics; covers the

fundamental terminology, concepts, and principles of computer graphics; introduces the students to the uses and applications of 2- and 3-dimensional systems; and teaches operational

techniques. Students in this course study the

capabilities and functions of Apple, Applicon,

and Computervision systems and complete laboratory work focusing on operational techniques

required by each system.

Computer-aided design-interactive graphics 1

provides students with exposure to a broad

range of engineering applications that can be executed on CAD systems; trains them to execute

vendor-prepared applications packages dealing

with engineering problems, and exposes them

to CAD software development. Among the applications and techniques studied in this course

are finite element modeling, digitizing, parametric programing, numerical control part programing, and detailing 3-D drawings.

In their senior year, students are required to

take two other computer-oriented courses:

● Basic computer-assisted part programing provides students with a practical working

—.———

*This, according to design program faculty, reflects current practice

in industry, where CAD techniques are more widespread than CAM

techniques.
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 417

—

knowledge of APT programing techniques;

gives them a frame of reference to help them

to understand and implement computer-aided

design and manufacturing processes; and explores the impact of APT and automation in

general on the traditional techniques and

philosophy of engineering graphics.

● Design technology-CAD software development (interactive graphics 2) explores CAD

software development research techniques,

programing, and operation of automated and

computer graphic equipment with the object

of acquainting students with CAD databases

and database manipulation tools. *

In addition to the required courses, two graduate courses in advanced computer-aided design

and advanced CAD applications are open to seniors as elective courses (see section on Graduate

Programs).

Enrollment Trends.–The design technology

program has the highest enrollment of the technology programs. In fact, with a 1982-83 academic

year enrollment of 574 undergraduates, the design

faculty is now in the position of having to introduce enrollment controls to eventually reduce the

number of design students to 300. The primary

reason for adopting this measure is to enable design students to spend a minimum of 5 hours a

week working on the CAD stations. Approximately 30 of the design undergraduates are women, giving this program the highest percentage of female

enrollment of all the technology programs.

A recent analysis of the enrollment figures (done

when the enrollment totalled 555) revealed that 77

of the design students were freshmen; 119 were

sophomores; 155 were juniors; and 204 were seniors. The relatively small number of freshmen and

sophomores does not reflect an enrollment decline

at the lower division level; rather, it reflects a

general enrollment trend seen in all of the sections

of the technology department of upper-division

transfers from other disciplines.

Placement.–Like the other BYU technology

programs, the design program has a placement

rate approaching 99 percent. With only occasional

exceptions, those who do not accept immediate

employment in the design field go on to graduate

school or into the military. One reason for the high

*Students are also required to take a noncredit ‘‘Design Technology

Seminar” each semester. Seminars are held twice a month. Once each

month the design technology students join with all students in the college to attend the Engineering College lecture covering a recent topic

in engineering; the other monthly meeting addresses recent developments in computer-aided engineering and is specifically geared for design students.

placement rate is that the faculty actively encourages students to work in industry to get application experience before going on to graduate work.

Most students receive two or more job offers, and

program graduates have been employed in the following firms (to list but a few): Sandia Laboratories, General Electric, Texas Instruments, Boeing,

Applicon, Garrett Corp., John Deere Product Engineering Center, Hughes Aircraft, General Dynamics, Signetics, U.S. Steel, Martin Marietta, Xerox Corp., Calma Co., Bechtel Power Corp., Westinghouse, Rocketdyne, and Motorola.

The majority of graduates are employed in engineering positions directly after graduation. Specific occupational titles assigned by the hiring

companies include the following: design engineer,

CAD applications engineer, process engineer, manufacturing engineer, CAD/CAM engineer, computer engineer, rocket design engineer, software engineer, product design engineer, associate engineer, and engineer. Others are employed as CAD/

CAM programmers, software analysts, tool designers, CAD support technologists, computer graphics specialists, and CAD/CAM consultants.

A number of graduates are hired as CAD or

CAD/CAM managers or as management trainees,

and a growing number are hired as CAD/CAM

trainers. Another growing occupational opportunity for which design graduates are well prepared

is technical marketing support—a number of recent design graduates have been hired as technical

personnel who accompany equipment salespeople

to answer the customer’s technical questions and

to help them make realistic appraisals of whether

or not CAD and CAM equipment will perform desired functions in specific environments.

Graduate Programs.–In 1977, the technology

department established an M.S. program in computer-aided manufacturing. Now retitled computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM), this program

currently offers separate options in CAM and

CAD and may in the future offer an option in computer-aided testing (CAT) for those students specializing in advanced electronics applications. The

renaming of the CIM program not only made specific options in design and manufacturing available

but also emphasized the thrust of the program,

which is to provide students with training in the

use of specific computer applications (e.g., robotics

and group technology) as the basis for the study

of integrated manufacturing where a variety of

computer-aided equipment is linked in a distributed system.

One unusual feature of the CIM program is that

over half of its students are professional engineers
418 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employmenf, Education, and the Workplace —— — .

and managers employed by the Western Electric

Co., who attend condensed, intensive versions of

the regular school-year courses for 5 weeks each

summer over a period of 5 years. The remainder

of the students enrolled in CIM are full-time graduate students. At present, 30 full-time students

and 60 Western Electric engineers are enrolled in

the program. The first eight Western Electric

students completed their coursework during the

spring 1983 term.

In the fall of 1983, the technology department

began to offer another graduate degree program

in technical management. This new program offering is the result of a cooperative effort between the

College of Engineering Sciences and the School of

Management, and will combine MBA courses with

technical electives from either the technology

department or the traditional engineering departments. Students choosing to supplement management courses with technology coursework will pursue the technology management option, while students electing to take coursework from the

engineering departments will follow the engineering management option.

Since the technology/engineering management

program has not yet been offered, the remainder

of this section will be devoted to the program in

computer-integrated manufacturing.

Program Goals and Objectives: Computer Integrated Manufacturing.–The major goal of the

CIM curriculum is to prepare graduates to integrate computerized systems in manufacturing environments, and to do so with a high degree of effectiveness. Specific objectives defined to support

that goal are the following:

●

●

●

to instruct students ‘in the principles, elements, philosophy, and techniques of effective

manufacturing system design;

to aid students in developing the ability to integrate computerized systems to solve practical, recurring problems; and

to provide guidance to students completing

the M.S. thesis requirement, which involves

an in-depth study of a social, economic, or

technical aspect of computer-aided manufacturing systems.

Entrance Requirements.—The program is

specifically designed for students with recent industrial experience who wish to develop specialized skills and knowledge in technical and managerial aspects of computer-aided manufacturing

and design. Applicants must, therefore, have at

—.. -

least 1 year of relevant industrial experience.*

Other entrance requirements include: 1) a bachelor’s degree in engineering technology, or, with the

consent of the department, a B.S. in an allied discipline such as engineering; 2) evidence of completed coursework in manufacturing processes,

materials science, design and graphics, electronics,

computer programing, physics, and calculus.

Faculty, Facilities, and Equipment.–Graduate

courses are taught by approximately two-thirds

of the technology faculty. Facilities and equipment

are the same as those available to undergraduate

technology majors.

Curricula. -Both CIM options are structured to

accommodate industrial requirements and to prepare students for advanced work in computeraided design and manufacturing. While students

may create individually focused options within the

two formal options (CAD and CAM), specified

courses are required to form a foundation on which

to base the individualized program.

CAM Option–Students choosing to specialize

in computer-aided manufacturing take the following

●

●

●

●

courses:

Computer-aided facility design and materials

handling-theory and application of plant layout techniques, emphasizing materials handling systems.

CNC part programing-programing techniques and requirements for the manufacturing of components on computer numerical

control machining centers, emphasizing programing, applications, and software development.

Group technology-classification theory and

practice applied to workpiece-classificationand-coding and statistics, production in manufacturing cells, design retrieval, and generative process planning (all with an emphasis

on computer applications).

Computer-aided manufacturing systems–basic activities, elements, and principles of computer-aided manufacturing, including terminology, systems integration, architecture,

database development, interfaces, and computer hardware/software requirements.

*The only exception to this requirement is that students who have

completed a year of cooperative education experience (which, in actuality, is only 8 months of work experience) are eligible to apply. The

technology faculty, however, actively encourages technology undergraduates contemplating this advanced degree to work full-time in industry before applying in order to gain a practical understanding of industrial practices before beginning graduate work.
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 419

—

 Industrial robotics---history and philosophy

of robotics, industrial applications, programing, economic justification, and integration

with production systems.

Students are also required to take a course in

computer-aided design (see below) and a graduate

seminar, and may choose from a number of seniorand graduate-level manufacturing, design, and

electronics technology courses or courses in computer science, mechanical engineering, or business

management to complete their option.

CAD Option .–Students taking the computeraided design option are also required to take the

manufacturing technology courses in group technology and computer-aided manufacturing systems. Two advanced CAD courses are also required:

●

●

Computer-aided design: interactive graphics

3—CAD systems management philosophies,

including systems evaluation, cost justification, procurement procedures, implementation, and management/operator training

programs.

Advanced CAD applications-philosophy,

methods, and applications of engineering

techniques pertaining to present and future

trends of finite element and solids modeling;

complex numerical control methods.

Elective coursework may be chosen from all

three curricula of the technology department, the

computer sciences department, and the mechanical

engineering department.

Electronics Technology Coursework.-Although

there is, at present, no formal electronics option

in the CIM program, a number of upper-level and

graduate courses that focus on computer-aided applications and techniques are available to students

in the Cl M program. Among these are computeraided testing and instrumentation, electronics fabrication and assembly, and real-time sensing and

control. *

Research.-All CIM students are required to do

research and write a thesis, preferably on a practical aspect or application of computer-integrated

manufacturing systems. In practice, areas of

research have been very broad. A number of students participate in ongoing faculty research,

while others initiate independent research projects

in subjects such as selection of CAD equipment,

CAD training, CAD system performance, computer-aided materials selection, carbide selection,

*The ‘‘ Real-Time.Sesing and Control” course focuses on writing computer language for computer operations that run in real time (ie, , are

not stored by the computer and computed in a Batch model.

finite element modeling, automated steel mills,

solids modeling, software quality assessment, and

the cost of product quality and its relation to market share.

The Western Electric Program.– In 1978, Brigham Young became one of a handful of universities

participating in Western Electric’s “On-Campus

Summer Program, ” which provides selected Western Electric employees with the opportunity to attend graduate school on-campus for 4 to 5 weeks

during the summer for a 5-year period. While the

other participating universities—including Clemson University, Kansas State University, New

Mexico State, Purdue, Texas Tech University, and

the University of Illinois–offer a variety of advanced courses, some of which focus on CAD and

CAM, Brigham Young is the only one to offer a

degree program in computer-integrated manufacturing. Although Western Electric does not require the 60 employees currently attending BYU

to enroll formally in the CIM degree program,

almost all have chosen to do so. Those who formally enroll in the program must complete the same

thesis requirement as all regular CIM graduate

students, and all of the Western Electric

employees receive the same classroom instruction

and laboratory practice. Each summer, two

courses from the CAM option are restructured to

fit into an intensive 5-week period so that students

complete the equivalent of two 14-week courses.

The first eight graduates completed their studies

in the summer of 1983, and two or three additional

students were to complete their degrees by the end

of the year.

Western Electric covers all of the students’ formal costs— including fees, tuition, housing, and

books–and also reimburses BYU for the salaries

of the Technology faculty and staff, and for equipment use and maintenance.

Enrollment Trends, Attrition, and Placement.—

While the number of Western Electric engineers

officially enrolled in the CIM program has gone

as high as 60, academic year enrollment is limited

to 30. Of the 30 students currently enrolled in the

academic year program, approximately two-thirds

are graduates of BYU and over half are graduates

of BYU technology programs. Many C IM students take leaves-of-absence from their companies

to take the coursework, and attempt to complete

the thesis requirement after returning to their

jobs. This practice is the primary cause of attrition (approximately 33 percent), which often occurs after the coursework has been completed and

when students return to work rather than remain
420 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

on campus to write their theses. The placement

rate for CIM graduates, on the other hand, is 100

percent. Average entry-level salaries received by

CIM gradutes range from $27,000 to $33,000, although some program graduates have received offers as high as $50,000.

Industrial Affiliations

The technology faculty operates on the philosophy that, in meeting the needs of industry it is

meeting the needs of its students. The discussion

in the preceding section has brought out a number

of ways in which the faculty has sought industrial

advice, secured industrial donations, and engaged

in research that is either industry-oriented or conducted in cooperation with industry. The following paragraphs describe specific formal channels

through which the technology department communicates with industry and discusses the department’s position on the formation of an industrial

advisory council.

Channels of Communication.–The technology

department participated with the other departments in the college to form the Alliance With Industry Program in 1981. The 20 companies who

participate in the program* each provide an annual contribution of $10,000 or more to support

the college’s research and educational programs.

Benefits to the industrial partners include the following: 1) licenses for software developed by college faculty (including high-resolution graphics

software developed by a member of the engineering faculty), 2) research results in methodology

and applications, 3) help in solving special industrial problems, 4) seminars for technical personnel,

and 5) access to BYU graduates skilled in computer-aided techniques. Benefits to the college, aside

from donations of funds and equipment, include

industrial advice and interaction and the opportunity to do research on current industrial problems.

Apart from its participation in the college-wide

alliance with industry, the technology department

has also formed independent alliances. Each year,

the department holds two DCLASS conferences,

one for users who have licensed the software and

one for nonusers who are considering purchasing

a license. The users conference provides a forum

for the exchange of ideas and the presentation of

new DCLASS applications; the non-users confer-

*These include B. F. Goodrich, Boeing, Digital Equipment Corp.,

Evans & Sutherland, Garrett Corp., Hewlett Packard, Exxon, GE-Calma, Genrad, GTE, and Computervision.

ence includes an initial orientation followed by

demonstrations, workshops, and presentations by

industrial representatives who use DCLASS and

by technology department faculty.

The Manufacturing Consortium that supports

the development of CAST holds twice-yearly meetings to review and approve the instructional modules as they are completed. The industrial members of the consortium also provide financial resources and technical information on the manufacturing processes which are the subject matter of

the instructional packages, and the educational

members write the software, participate in the

review process, and help to evaluate the teaching/learning process employed.

The Western Electric program described earlier

in this study gives the technology faculty an opportunity to work intensively with engineers and

technical personnel, and faculty leave programs

allow faculty members to renew their working

knowledge of industrial practices by accepting

short-term employment in industry. In addition,

all faculty members take at least one trip a year

to attend meetings of professional and technical

societies. Another fruitful channel of communication is provided by industrial visitors. Literally

thousands of industrial representatives visit the

department each year–some to view the facilities

and equipment, some to deliver or attend seminars, and many to ask advice on computer-aided

equipment and methods.

Evaluation of Present and Future Capacity

When asked to evaluate BYU’S technology programs on the basis of the skills and ability of their

graduates, one employer replied: “On a scale of 1

to 10, I’d rate them 10. ” Other employers contacted agree, noting that BYU graduates not only

have “just the right education, ” but often require

less on-the-job orientation training than traditionally educated engineers, and are also more mature

and more willing to work extra hours and at odd

hours than most engineers fresh out of college.

The Rocky Road to Success.–Evaluated with

respect to its own stated goal of preparing students for positions requiring applied engineering,

process planning, and systems management skdk,

the BYU technology department clearly is highly

successful. Its present capacity to provide its

students with the CAD and CAM skills sought by

increasing numbers of industrial firms is perhaps

best described by the adage, “success breeds success. ” Because the faculty has been able to obtain
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries . 421

— —. ————— —— --— —

industrial donations, state-of-the-art equipment,

industrial advice, and real-world research problems

for its students to work on, BYU technology graduates are sought after by industry. And because

of the graduates’ success in industry and the faculty’s achievements in research, the technology department now has more offers of equipment and

industrial research projects than it can handle and

is in the position of giving advice to companies less

technologically advanced than it is.

A look at the history of the technology department since its inception in 1960, however, reveals

that its present-day success story grew out of a

Cinderella tale. When the baccalaureate programs

were first established, and for many years afterwards, the members of the technology faculty saw

themselves as ‘‘underdogs. They were looked

down upon by many of the engineering faculty,

and unrecognized by most of the rest of the university, and their 4-year programs were often confused with the 2-year technician programs also offered by the technology department at that time.

Industry-oriented and intent on filling the gap

created by the increasingly theoretical focus of

traditional engineering education, the technology

department resisted promptings by engineering

societies, accreditation agencies, and some of the

college faculty to “add more courses the students

wouldn’t need in industry in order to become accredited-it wasn’t worth the tradeoff. ”

Eventually, the manufacturing and design programs-which substituted application-oriented,

laboratory-based courses for the most highly

theoretical coursework in engineering disciplines-became the first accredited technology

programs in the country. Although accreditation

was beneficial to both the students and the faculty, it did not solve their problem of being looked

upon as either second-rate engineers or as supertechnicians. However, the department’s industrial

focus and the faculty members’ desire to prove

that neither they nor the discipline of technology

were “poor relations” were significant factors in

the department early concentration on computeraided design and manufacturing.

Because the programs were designed to teach

state-of-the-art industrial skills and applications,

the faculty began exploring ways of obtaining

equipment and incorporating programmable automation into the curricula approximately 10 years

ago, when it became clear to them that CAD and

CAM would eventually become required fields of

knowledge. Furthermore, because the programs’

curricula were not bound by engineering accreditation requirements, which allow little space in a

4-year curriculum for the inclusion of new courses,

coursework focusing on CAD and CAM could be

incorporated into the technology curricula with

relative ease.

The final hurdle for the technology department

was industry itself. Faculty members went from

company to company in the early 1970’s, but did

not succeed in obtaining donated or reduced-price

equipment until they proved their genuine interest

and capability by demonstrating to Applicon that

their students were doing all that could be done

to automate the drafting courses with the limited

equipment at their disposal. It was at this stage,

when the department received its first major donation (the Applicon CAD system) that Cinderella

was allowed to try on the glass slipper. The other

slipper-a $130,000 Kerney & Trecker CNC milling machine, which the company sold to the department for $50,000—was fitted shortly thereafter. These two significant equipment additions

enabled the faculty to begin to incorporate sophisticated computer-aided techniques into the coursework; they also encouraged other firms to donate

funds and equipment.

Technology and Engineering:

Interdepartmental Relationships

Once it “proved itself,” the situation of the technology department improved both inside and outside the university. Although perfect accord between engineering and technology faculty members is not always achieved even now, the vast majority of faculty members in the college view

engineering and technology as partner-disciplines,

both of which are necessary to provide the broad

spectrum of education and training required to

prepare graduates for engineering and engineering-related positions in industry. Civil, mechanical,

and electrical engineering students are now required to take design technology courses, and

many engineering students take courses from all

three technology programs as technical electives,

Technology students were always required to

take engineering courses relevant to their major

program-and a third to a half as many physics,

chemistry, and mathematics courses as engineering students. There has been limited discussion

about increasing the number of statics, dynamics,

and strength-of-materials courses taken by technology majors to equal those taken by engineers,

and there is some discussion about increasing the

numbers of physics and mathematics courses in
422 • Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace —. —.

the technology curricula.* As the commonality between technology and engineering curricula grows,

more and more students and faculty perceive the

difference between the two disciplines to be one

of approach and mission, rather than one of level

of education.

Computer-Aided Engineering, Design,

and Manufacturing (CAEDM) Committee

Both technology and engineering faculty now

feel that they have an excellent relationship with

each other, in contrast to the situation in many

other universities which have both programs. The

CAEDM Committee, created in 1980, provides a

formal channel of communication between the

technologists and engineers, and a number of professors in both departments coordinate research

projects in which technology and engineering

graduate students work together as part of a research team. College faculty believe that this team

approach has a great deal of significance for academia and industry alike. **

The BYU technology department-whose primary focus is on the implementation of engineering designs--has been instrumental in increasing

the engineering departments’ awareness of the

need to produce industrial designers who are more

cognizant of manufacturing concepts and requirements. One tangible example of interdepartmental cooperation in this area is a CAEDM-sponsored

short-course for faculty and students delivered by

a representative from GE, which has instituted a

version of a Japanese procedure that rates engineering designs on the basis of ease and efficiency of assembly. Another example is the work now

being done in the CAM Mini-Lab, where electrical

and mechanical engineering students, computer

science students, and technology students all participate in projects addressing the manufacturing

process from design to production and the problems of networking diverse CAD and CAM equipment.

—

*There is some disagreement among the technology faculty on the

issue of increasing the math and physics courses, which would entail

either extending the technology curricula beyond the limits of 4-year

programs, requiring students to take, more courses each semester, or

dropping courses that the majority of the faculty consider to be essential for technologists.

* * A petennial problem in industry has been lack of communication 

between engineers who design the products and the manufacturing departments responsible for production. Because of this lack of communication, and because engineers normally receive little formal education

in the requirements of the manufacturing process, industrial designers

often fail to take manufacturing requirements into account when designing a product — a procedure that can lead to loss of money, loss of production time, or (in the worst instace) a product which a product which not be manufactured

The technology department also stimulated the

engineering departments’ interest in CAD and

CAM, which, in turn, was a stimulus for the current focus on computer-aided engineering (CAE).

The college as a whole has also benefited from the

industry interest generated by the technology programs and graduates. Much of the computer-aided

equipment obtained by the technology department

serves the entire college, and the engineering departments have now obtained computer graphics

and computer-aided data acquisition and analysis

equipment through industrial donations and cooperative agreements with equipment manufacturers. In addition, the growing reputation of the

technology department in industrial circles has

brought in interviewers from across the country

who hire engineering as well as technology

graduates.

The Alliance With Industry Program, formed

under the auspices of CAEDM, brought the university $1,858,000 in industrial equipment and in

funds used to augment the computer-aided capabilities of the college. In April 1983, CAEDM

hosted a conference for 380 representatives from

120 universities across the country who are either

planning or developing programs in computeraided manufacturing, design, and engineering.

Thirty speakers from 25 universities that have initiated such programs gave presentations on the

approach taken at their respective institutions;

and all of the participants had the opportunity to

discuss common problems, individual experiences,

and appropiate strategies. The object of the conference, called University Programs for ComputerAided Engineering, Design and Manufacturing

(UP CAEDM) was to increase communication

among universities and to provide impetus for the

implementation of teaching and research programs in CAD, CAM, and CAE.

Problems.—While cooperative endeavors like

those mentioned above have brought the faculty

of the technology and engineering departments together, the college is not entirely free of the traditional misunderstanding among engineers and

technologists. Some of the technology faculty still

bear the scars of old battle wounds and refer to

the “arrogance” of the engineering discipline as

a whole, and to the “old boys’ club” atmosphere

that links engineers nationwide and excludes technologists. They consider their own college education in traditional engineering schools to have

“mistrained” them for industrial occupations.

Some engineering faculty, on the other hand, resent the fact that most technology department

graduates are classified as “engineers” when they
Appendix A – Selected Case Studies” Summaries 423

——-. — . — — ——

move into industry; they fear that such graduates

may be “misrepresented” as degreed engineers.

Another problem for the engineering faculty is

that a number of visitors from industry and academia overlook the computer-aided engineering

facilities and devote their entire attention to the

CAD and CAM facilities of the technology department. The resentments on both sides are, however,

gradually being overcome by the spirit of cooperation that now exists within the college. They are

but pale reflections of national tensions between

technologists and engineers.

Working With Industry.–Having designed its

programs to respond to industrial needs and having concentrated on industrially oriented research,

the technology department is now able to work

with industry on many levels. The continuing success of the Western Electric program and the satisfaction of the Western Electric employees who)

attend the summer sessions indicate the suitability of the technology curricula to current industrial

needs, as do the multiple job offers received by

technology graduates. The growing number of

companies purchasing DCLASS licenses and exhibiting interest in the CAST system indicate that

the research performed by technology department

faculty and students also fills an industrial need.

Some faculty members, in fact, are in the position

of being able to pick and choose from a large number of potential industrial research projects.

Because of the similarity of interest between

technology department faculty and professionals

in industry, and because of past success in research aimed at solving current industrial problems, individual faculty members have been able

to engage in long-term research projects resulting

in a number of shorter-term benefits to industry.

DCLASS, for example, is now put to use by a number of firms for classifying and retrieving information and for generating process plans, time standards, and a number of other applications. At the

same time, the creator of DCLASS is conducting

long-term research into the potential use of

DCLASS as a systems integration tool.

Revenues from the sale of DCLASS licenses

have helped to buy equipment and renovate facilities and may soon be augmented by the sale of

CAST training modules and the CAD training

aides that allow Apple computers to simulate interactive graphics systems. In many instances, the

department has been able to save the expense of

maintaining computer aided equipment by writing software programs for equipment vendors in

exchange for maintenance services.

The major problem-area still remaining for the

technology department in respect to working with

industry is the attitude taken by some firms

toward the occupational categories appropriate for

technology graduates. This is discussed in the following section.

Future Capacity .—Judged by its present success, the direction of the faculty’s research, and

its determination to maintain its awareness of industrial needs and techniques, the future potential of the technology department to continue producing well-trained graduates versed in computeraided techniques and familiar with a wide range

of computer-aided equipment seems high indeed.

The major limitation is the small size of the department—which, because of enrollment control, will

become smaller still-and difficulties encountered

in managing the growing numbers of computeraided systems, which entail coordinating frequent

upgrades and updates with the student need for

equipment time.

Although college and university administrations

have been generous in assigning funds to upgrade

old facilities and build new ones for the technology

and engineering departments, the technology department’s resources cannot expand to accommodate all of the activities it would like to engage in.

For example, a number of companies have requested that the department operate programs for

their employees on the model of the Western Electric program. The department has had to turn

down these requests for lack of resources. It will,

however, attempt to offer a series of 2-day to 1-

week seminars for industrial employees focusing

on computer-aided design and manufacturing,

A general policy of the department and of the

university is to sacrifice size for quality. The new

enrollment control procedures, for example, will effectively close off enrollment for the Design Program for the next year or two, but wiII also result

in more CAD-terminal-time for those students already enrolled. of the three technology programs,

manufacturing exhibits the greatest capacity for

future enrollment growth (student interest has

been fueled by the national interest in productivity and the potential of computer-aided manufacturing), while the electronics program has the

greatest potential for expanding its curriculum to

include new courses focusing on computer-aided

equipment and techniques. The Electronics faculty has already acquired six HP87XM computeraided test stations to be used as personal instrument, systems, and a Tektronic 4054 computer

graphics system for printed circuit board design.
424 “ Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—-————. ——- .—————— ——— -— —

Future departmental plans call for an ECAM

(Electronics-CAM) minilab to be established in the

new technology building when it is completed.

The technology department, in cooperation with

the mechanical engineering department and the

electrical engineering department, developed a proposal for a three-element graduate program in

manufacturing systems in response to IBM’s announcement that it would provide college and university grants for the development of new curricula in manufacturing techniques. BYU has received notice that it has been awarded an IBM

4341 computer system with 10 CADAM graphics

terminals. This system will have a significant impact on the capacity of the three departments and

of the college as a whole to train more students

than they can presently accommodate.

The technology department’s potential capacity to provide education in programmable automation is not entirely limited by the size of the department, if one considers the indirect impact of the

programs as models for other schools, the willingness and ability of the faculty to provide information to academia and industry alike, and the potential of the computer-aided simulation training

packages and the CAM-Mini Lab concept.

BYU Technology Programs as Models for Other

Educational Institutions.—The manufacturing

technology program has been used for many years

by the Society of Manufacturing Engineers as a

recommended model for 4-year manufacturing pro

grams. In addition, representatives of 15 to 20 colleges and universities visit the BYU technology

department each year with the expressed intention

of creating their own programs on the BYU model.

Technology department faculty representatives

offer the following comments on the feasibility of

such attempts. While they have personal knowledge of a number of successful programs modeled

on their own, they point out that the crucial requirements for a program like theirs are often met

only with difficulty. The first requirement, from

their point of view, is the necessity of “giving up

the title of manufacturing engineering in order to

give industry what it really wants. ” This is a step

that a number of engineering schools do not wish

to take.*

Once this step is decided upon, other pitfalls exist. One is the tendency of some schools to place

manufacturing technology programs in the depart-

● According to one technology instructor, “You can’t take a trueblue

theoretical engineer and expect him to teach technology; if you do,

there’s a danger that the faculty will make the technology courses too

theoretical and the students will wind up with a pseudo-technology degree. ”

ment of mechanical engineering and to offer them

as options. The danger here, according to BYU faculty, is that the technology program is then likely to become a watered-down engineering program

rather than a parallel-track program. Another necessity is that each course in the curriculum be accompanied by an associated laboratory requirement. This means, of course, that appropriate

equipment and facilities be available. Another major requirement is that the faculty have industrial

experience and be comfortable teaching a less

theoretical, practically oriented curriculum. The

final requirement is interest on the students’ part.

While faculty can help to generate that interest,

it could be difficult to do so in a strong traditional

engineering college where students are bent on becoming degreed engineers and have little interest

in less theoretical studies.

Technology Transfer. –The technology department—and, especially since the formation of

CAEDM, the college as a whole–has been, and

will most likely continue to be, an excellent conduit for technology transfer. The faculty demonstrates a strong determination to continue to learn

from industry and an equally strong desire to

share what they have learned and their methodology of teaching with other educational institutions. The UP CAEDM conference, in particular,

has the potential of becoming a regularly occurring event: the second such conference is being

hosted on the East Coast by Lehigh University in

1984. If that potential is realized, BYU will have

provided the impetus for a sorely needed forum for

continual exchange of information. *

Technology department faculty also express the

intention of continuing the present practice of

working as consultants to industrial firms and

government agencies and of providing informal advice and services to industry representatives who

visit the department to obtain information on

CADICAM systems and applications. Thus, the

technology transfer provided by the technology

department and other departments in the college

is likely to continue to operate on multiple levels

to the benefit of BYU, other academic institutions,

and industry.

Computer-Based and Computer-Aided Instructional Packages. –As modules of the Computer- — . — —

*An informal survey conducted by this researcher of selected colleges

and universities revealed an astonishing lack of knowledge about the

activities of other institutions on the part of faculty members actively

engaged in planning or developing CAD and CAM programs. While

some faculty members contacted did have some information about existing programs in colleges and universities, they often did not know

the direction and focus of those other programs or had inadequate information about specific research and curriculum development activities.
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries . 425

— — ———

Aided Simulation Training System (CAST) are

completed and approved by the Manufacturing

Consortium, they will be made available to industries and educatioal institutions for a minimal fee

(covering the cost of reproduction and mailing).

The manufacturing technology professor responsible for developing and coordinating the project

is hopeful that within the next year, videodisk

technology in the United States will be well

enough advanced to allow the CAST development

team to produce the training modules on interactive videodisks. At present, a demonstration videodisk has been produced for use in further research studies on interactive instruction, and

sound-slide presentations of some of the modules

are being tested in manufacturing technology

classes at BYU. The CAI) training package for use

on Apple computers is also in the development

stage, and one of the design technology faculty has

formulated a concept for computer-aided CAD instruction which he hopes to develop in the near

future.

CAM Mire” Lab. -Technology department faculty are also seeking funds to enable them to build

duplicates of the miniature factory that will be contained in the CAM Mini Lab and to provide them

to 20 universities across the country. The recipient universities would be encouraged to attend

‘‘software exchanges, whereby advances made by

one party would benefit the group as a whole. The

estimated cost of producing the hardware for one

minilab is $50,000, which is equal to or less than

the cost of many single items of computer-aided

equipment.

Projects such as those mentioned above expand

considerably the department potential capacity

to have a direct effect on education and training

in the field of programmable automation, The

DCLASS users and nonusers conferences, the

Western Electric program, and short courses for

professional engineers offered by the engineering

departments further expand the college’s ability

to reach beyond the university campus to provide

educational opportunities to working professionals.
426 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace — —

Case Study 3

CADAM Inc.: Customer Training

in Computer-Aided Design

Summary

CADAM Inc., a subsidiary of Lockheed Corp.,

produces computer-aided design and manufacturing (CAD/CAM) software, most of which is licensed to customers through IBM and other computer hardware firms. Customers may also buy

CAD/CAM software directly from CADAM for

use on systems that are “plug-compatible” with

IBM systems.

CADAM provides basic computer graphics

training free of charge to all customers who purchase software directly from the firm (two employees per customer) and charges $1,250 per student

for basic training classes to all customers who license the software through IBM or other hardware distributors. Customers may also purchase

the basic training in self-study packages for $650

per kit. The software firm offers more than 11 computer graphics programs, ranging from basic training in the CADAM system of computer-aided design, to courses on 3-D piping and 3-n surfaces,

to numerical control (NC) programing, to finite element modeling.

In addition, CADAM offers a training consulting service designed to assist customers who have

unique problems or special requirements, All training beyond CADAM basic is delivered for a fee,

which ranges from $550 to $3,100 per student, depending on the length and complexity of the

course. The majority of students are machinists,

designers, drafters, and engineers.

While CADAM provides both in-plant training

for all of its employees and what is referred to as

‘‘scope” training (training on the computer terminal in the operations required to use various

CADAM

@ system ware packages),* this study

will focus primarily on the customer training offered by the firm. When it was established in January 1982, its Lockheed Corp. founders committed

themselves to providing “high quality training”

which they saw as crucial to support the company

goal of becoming a major developer and distributor of software in the CAD/CAM field. Today, the

training department—which includes curriculum

*CADAM is a registered trademark and service mark of CADAM Inc

designers, internal trainers, and customer trainers

—accounts for 8 percent of all CADAM employees

(an unusually high percentage), and the director

of training reports directly to the president of the

firm. This, again, is unusual, since most training

departments report through marketing, customer

relations, or personnel.

Company Characteristics. -As of July 1983,

CADAM employed approximately 280 people in

its four major divisions: software development,

marketing, training, and administration. Seventyfive percent of CADAM employees are in the software division; marketing and trairing have 10 percent each; and the remaining 5 percent are in administration, At present, the firm operates out of

one facility, located near the Lockheed-California

plant in Burbank, Calif. CADAM management

plans to increase the software division by 40 employees during the latter part of 1983 and to maintain the training department at its current level.

The decision to incorporate what was once Lockheed’s CADAM division* was fueled by the perceived necessity of providing CADAM management with the flexibility it needed to operate in

a fast-moving CAD/CAM marketplace with a wide

variety of potential customers in-aerospace, shipbuilding, automating, architectural planning, and

a number of other industries. Distinguishing

CADAM from the majority of CAD software and

software-hardware houses is the firm’s concentration on developing software for mainframe CAD/

CAM systems, specifically the IBM 370, 303X,

and 4300 series, rather than for turnkey, or standalone, systems utilizing minicomputers.

According to company representatives, the advantages of mainframe as opposed to turnkey sys-

*In 1967, the origial CA DAM software was developed by Lockheed-California engineers to aid in the numerical control (NC) programing and airframe design for Lockheed Aerospace Products. CADAM

system software was originally created for use on IBM mainframes,

but by the mid-1970’s, Lockheed had also designed a CADAM package for use on Perkin Elmer minicomputers, By 197.5, Lockheed was

selling CA DAM system software to users outside of Lockheed Corp.

By 1979, in addition to marketing the system, IBM also adopted

CADAM is its internal CAD/CAM software. IBM and Lockheed entered into a contractual arrangement in 1977 whereby IBM would market and distribute CADAM system software under the IBM installed

user program ( IUP), which makes software developed by IBM users

available to the general public.
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 427

— —.

terns are increased database capability and the

ability to network CAD/CAM databases (including

the ability to transfer data between CAD and

CAM systems), the ability to interface to other information systems, the greater growth capability

of mainframes (to which over 100 terminals can be

connected), greater telecommunications capabilities between far-flung terminals, and the increased

speed, accuracy, and computing ability offered by

32-bit (mainframe) as opposed to 16-bit (minicomputer) systems. * By offering these features,

CADAM believes it has a solution for an entire enterprise—not merely a department or group.

According to CADAM’s president, CAD/CAM

technology is most profitably and productively

used by firms that are not merely seeking to automate single processes, such as design drawings

or NC part programing, but are instead developing the capability to make their design and manufacturing processes into a single integrated system. CADAM management thus views the firm’s

major role as that of a systems catalyst, since they

maintain that CAD/CAM systems can, when used

by knowledgeable users, become the backbone of

a computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) system. In this sense, CADAM has two major markets: firms that use CAD or CAD/CAM systems

for some processes, and, most important, firms

that are in the process of developing integrated

system capabilities. At present, CADAM has over

250 corporate users, including IBM (with almost

100 installations and several hundred terminals

that make use of CADAM software), GM and

other American firms, the majority of the largest

Japanese automakers and shipbuilders, and firms

throughout Western Europe, Canada, South Africa, and South America.

Training Organization and Philosophy .–Lockheed-California began CADAM system training

for employees in the late 1960’s, shortly after the

CADAM product was developed; Lockheed instructors have been delivering CADAM system

training since 1975, when software packages were

first sold to outside users. As a company, then,

CADAM had the advantage of starting out with

a track record of training both customers and employees on a system that had been used in produc-

*Many of the major turnkey vendors, however, are coming out with

32-bit minicomputers, which, according to Merrill Lynch’s 1982 CAD

CAM Review and outlook, “ appear capable of stemming the inroads

of mainframe computer competition (p. 1). While mainframes have

more CPU power and speed, the new 32-bit mini systems offer more

extensive applications software and, except for “high-end large sophisticated needs, are superior to mainframes in price/performtince comparisons (p, 9),

tion environments for over 15 years; it also inherited 10 Lockheed-developed CADAM training programs and a number of experienced trainers.

Top Priority Accorded to Training.–According

to CADAM’s president, training was an integral

part of the strategic business plan created prior

to CADAM’s incorporation. Convinced that customer support–including training, curricular aids,

and consulting services—was a major requirement

for success in the CAD/CAM field, CADAM management set out to establish a training department

that would provide curricular materials and training of a consistently high quality. The new director of training and education, hired in November

1981, was given a mandate to produce quality

training and to turn the training department into

a profit center for the firm. As head of one of

CADAM’s four major divisions, the director of

training reports directly to the president of the

firm and has both flexibility (in structuring the

training department, hiring trainers and program

designers, and organizing and developing the

training material) and accountability (for producing “quality product support” and for turning a

profit).

CADAM management believes that a system of

checks and balances--involving cooperation between trainers and designers and between the software division and the training division, as well as

accountability on the part of each division to the

others and to top management-produces a form

of “quality assurance” whereby the product itself

is designed with users and training requirements

in mind, and the training effort supports the sale

and use of the software.

Relationships With Educational Institutions.—

Aside from the training division’s informal relationship with the [University of Southern California’s (USC’S) Instructional Technology Department, CADAM has numerous cooperative relationships with colleges and universities in California and throughout the country. In September

1982, IBM announced its intention to award $40

million worth of grants of hardware and of funds

to university and college engineering schools to

develop new curricula in manufacturing techniques. CADAM intends to supplement the IBM

hardware donations with donations of software

licenses.

Independently of the IBM grant, CADAM donates software to a number of universities and colleges, to be used in teaching CAD/CAM fundamentals, and occasionally provides CADAM training

to selected colleges and universities for free or for
428 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

a reduced rate. A more active relationship exists

with a smaller number of schools to which

CADAM also provides test releases of software.

This arrangement gives students experience in

solving software problems while, at the same time,

aiding CADAM software analysts in debugging

the software. With yet other institutions–UCLA

and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute for example—CADAM has engaged in joint development

work. UCLA’s Department of Manufacturing Engineering has received grants of IBM hardware

and CADAM software, which it has integrated

into the curriculum of three separate courses.

CADAM and UCLA manufacturing engineering

faculty and graduate students are also engaged in

joint research to determine how to classify

CADAM-made drawings into part families by

using group technology codes, with the ultimate

object of developing an integrated manufacturing

planning system.

Another cooperative project conducted by

UCLA aims to narrow the traditional communications gap between the design and manufacturing

departments in industries by designing a “smart”

CAD system that will monitor the design process

and prompt the designer if he bypasses manufacturing considerations while designing a part, tool,

or product. Another UCLA-CADAM project involves research into incorporating three-dimensional graphics capabilities into CADAM system

software.

Other educational institutions with which

CADAM maintains a close working relationship

include Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Michigan Technological Institute, MIT, and California

Polytechnic State University. Section III of this

study discusses possible future projects with colleges and universities which may have a direct impact on CADAM system training itself and on the

educational offerings of participating schools.

Training Division Staff.—The training division

consists of the director of training, the internal

training group, the customer training group, the

program (i.e., curriculum) designers, and three support personnel.

The training director, who was in computer sales

for IBM from 1956 to 1969 and then moved into

the industrial training field as an early employee

of Tratech (a for-profit training firm) and a training consultant, combines experience in the computer and training fields with formal training as

an accountant. The remainder of the professional

staff in the training division is approximately

equally split between employees with advanced

degrees in instructional design, education, or the

sciences, and employees with practical experience

working on and teaching the CADAM system.

The manager of customer training is a long-time

Lockheed employee (previously a drafter/designer)

who was trained as a drafting designer on

CADAM when it was first put into use in the late

1960’s. A trainer in the CADAM system since the

early 1970’s, he became manager of customer

training shortly after moving to CADAM from the

Lockheed training department. Five of the six

trainers combine production experience as

CADAM system designers with experience as

CADAM system trainers for Lockheed. The senior

instructor has 20 years of training experience, 15

of which were spent training Lockheed employees

and customers on the CADAM system.

The manager of the program design staff has

completed advanced graduate work: in the USC instructional technology department and worked

previously as a manager for another firm. The four

program designers also have graduate and/or

teaching experience in instructional technology at

USC (one was an instructor, one an assistant professor), and one also has 10 years of industrial experience. All have had extensive experience in writing instructional curricula.

The difference in backgrounds between the

trainers and the program designers reflects

CADAM management’s position that CADAM

employees should specialize in what they do best—

that trainers should be practitioners with engineering or shopfloor experience and that curriculum

developers should be trained communication specialists. The horizontal nature of CADAM’s internal organization-whereby trainers, program designers, and software developers are on parallel

organizational levels—is intended to encourage

cooperation and to make all technical-level

employees accountable for portions of product development and support.

Training Facilities.–Approximately half of all

the customer training is delivered at CADAM’s

training facility, located at the CADAM plant and

also used for employee* Group II mainframe computer, which is shared with the marketing group,

Customer Training

Goals. -Major goals of CADAM customer training are to provide a high level of training support

to the customers and to do so on a profitable basis.

— —.

*The remainder of the training is delivered onsite at the customer

location.
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 429

. .—

Recognizing that the CADAM system cannot be

effectively utilized by customers who have not

been properly trained and that well-trained users

are those most likely to be satisfied with the system and to expand their use of it, the training director established the program design department

to support these goals with its own particular set

of objectives.

These objectives are to develop a complete set

of training tools for each customer training program, to make those tools (written curricula, study

guides, training guides, training aids, etc.) as consistent as possible both in content and delivery,

to package appropriate courses as self-study programs to reduce trainin g costs, and to develop new

instructional programs to keep pace with software

development and new software applications. The

trainers’ goals are to make sure that the students

have a basic understanding of how the CADAM

system operates and a specific understanding of

the particular application package they are being

trained to operate.

Contractual Arrangements With Customers.—

When CADAM sells or leases software licenses directly to end-user customers, free basic terminal

operation training is provided for two customer

employees. Intermediate terminal operation training and other CADAM training courses are then

available to these customers for a fee.

Direct licensing makes up the smallest portion

of CADAM sales. By far the largest distribution

is through IBM, with which CADAM has three

separate contracts: one for software licensing, one

for software development and enhancement, and

one for training. Under current contracts, IBM

markets both CADAM system software and

CADAM system training, and primary responsibility for provision of training and other support

rest with IBM, which contracts with CADAM for

actual training delivery. Responsibility for scheduling customers into training classes is also

IBM’s: CADAM provides IBM with a projected 6-

month schedule of training courses, and IBM

schedules customers into available classes. The

contractual relationship with Perkin Elmer and

Fujitsu are somewhat different than with IBM.

Program Design.—The principles of “instructional design”* will eventually be used in all of

*“ Instmctional Technology” or “Instructional Design” was originally

developed in the late 1940’s and early 1950’s as a means of systematizing training and educational programs. It incorporates psychology, sociology, adult education, and other disciplines to create instructional

programs that take into account such factors as audience makeup, level

of learning, educational levels and occupational background of the students, and their responses to the type of training or education provided

(e.g., responses to learning to work on computers). A consortium of

CADAM’s training programs. At present, two

courses have been fully revised by the program designers: 1) CADAM basic, and 2) 3-D piping, a new

course designed for a software application program for the construction of pipe runs and spool

diagrams. Four additional courses –basic II, analysis, CADAM implementation, and CADAM installation-were to be ready by the third quarter

of 1983. As applied by CADAM designers, instructional design provides a systematic approach to

defining, developing, and evaluating training programs-an approach which attempts to combine

flexibility with an organized structure, The instructional design system is usable both for

creating new programs and for revising old training material.

The instructional design system used by

CADAM designers is a nine-part process which,

in the case of the revision of CA DAM basic training, took approximately 9 months to complete.

The process is broken down into three major functions: 1) definition of the problem or situation, 2)

development, and 3) evaluation.

Customer Training Programs. *-CAD AM offers a

total of 11 customer training programs plus a

training consulting service. This section describes

the basic terminal operations course.

Basic Terminal Operations.–CADAM’s basic

training program is offered approximately twice

a month. Previously a 4-day course serving four

students per class, CADAM Basic is now a s-day

course which can accommodate four to eight students and can be taught by CADAM instructors

or trainers from customer firms, or can be used as

a self-study package. When delivered by CADAM

trainers, the basic course is priced at $1,250 per

student; when sold as a self-study package, the

cost is $650 per study kit with additional workbooks priced at $70 to $150 each.

Course Goals.–The major goals are to teach

students to use the basic functions of the CADAM

system to create engineering drawings and to understand the basic concepts and purposes of the

system as applied to their own professional needs

and work environments.

—.

universities (including USC, Michigan State, Syracuse University, the

University of Indiana, and Florida State) have developed fully fledged

graduate programs in Instructional Technology (IT)

*CA DAM Inc. training programs not described in the preceding pages

are the following: advanced numerical control progr arning, 3-D surface,

3-D piping, finite element modeling, and analysis procedures, management overview basic I I terminaJ operations, job planning/on-th&job

training, basic numerical control programing, and instructor training.
430 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

.— .-

Prerequisites/Occupations Served.–The single

prerequisite for the course is the ability to read

blueprints. Most students who have attended the

course have been drafters, designers, engineers,

NC part programmers, and managers of departments in which the system is installed. Originally

used by industrial designers, the CADAM system

is now also used by architectural designers, facilities planners engaged in floor and shelf layouts for

markets, hospital supply houses and other firms,

and by electricians and electrical designers who

use the software for the design of printed circuit

boards and wiring diagrams. Occupational categories of students enrolling in CADAM basic

course are thus becoming more diverse as the applications of the system multiply, and there are

plans to adjust the basic course to reflect the

changing audience,

Curriculum.– The course consists of eight

lessons, each of which builds the students’ ability

to operate the CADAM system by introducing

them to the use of one or more of the system’s

function keys. By use of the function keys, the

operator calls up programs that enable him to

create basic geometric shapes, to “edit” the geometry of his drawing—the “relimit” function key,

for example, is used to trim or extend geometric

elements—to indicate dimensions and to add notations, and to perform a variety of other operations.

By the end of the course, the students will have

learned the use of all of the function keys required

for basic engineering drawings and will, in the

process, have completed a series of practical exercises that result in a completed design of an industrial robot arm.

Lesson one begins with a general introduction,

including a brief history of the CADAM system,

its benefits, and the needs that it can fill; an introduction to the workstation (including a hardware demonstration); and an overview of the general operation of the system. Following the introductory lecture/demonstration, the students complete an audio-tape-guided introductory lesson on

the graphics teminal, in which they learn how to

enter and exit the system (“logon” and “logoff”)

and to perform a few simple operations. They

learn, for example, to perform the basic file manipulation required to start a new drawing, call an

existing drawing to the screen, and file a drawing

on the computer disk.

From lesson two onward, the students spend approximately 70 percent of their time working on

the terminals and learning the system by means

of practical exercises. In lesson two, they learn

.— -- . — —

how to use the circle, line, and point function keys

to create points, lines, and circles at specific locations; to use the offset key to create a line in a desired direction, for example, or to create a new concentric circle; and to perform procedures for moving, sizing, setting, and presetting the display on

the screen by use of the “window” function key,

which can focus in on a small section of a drawing

or can widen its focus to present a full drawing on

the screen (like a camera taking either closeups or

distance shots).

In subsequent lessons, the students learn to edit

the basic geometry they have created (to create

corners, to trim or extend elements, and to change

the representation of an element from one line-type

to another); to capture one or more elements for

manipulation as a single entity or group, to analyze existing elements (e.g., lengths of lines, radii

of circles, and relative distance between a pair of

elements); to create textual notes and symbols to

accompany the drawing on the screen; to create

auxiliary views; to plot hard copies of the drawing; and to perform other basic functions.

In the final lesson, the students also learn job

planning techniques and how to create and use a

standard library of drawings. *

Instructional Methods.** The basic course is approximately 10 percent lecture (if delivered by an

instructor), 20 percent in-class reading, and 70 percent practical experience on the terminal.

When used as a self-study course, the student

workbook provides course content information

and guides the student to consult the procedures

guide which comes with the training package to

help him/her complete exercises on the computer

terminal. CADAM also provides instructions to

managers to help them monitor the instruction

and strongly recommends that, even when the

course is delivered in the self-study mode, an experienced CADAM system user be on hand to answer questions and provide other assistance.

When used in a group learning environment, the

workbook provides structure and support for the

learning process, but the trainer becomes the primary resource by lecturing on course material, giving guidance to the students, and pacing the

course to the students’ speed.

The three critical elements in the instructional

method—stressed by the trainers and in the work-

*A standard library is a collection of drawings of standard parts or

models used frequently by a specific firm. Once the original drawings

are completed by the firm’s designers, they are stored in the CADAM

library file and can be called up and used (as is, or modified).

**This sWtion is adapted from the CADAM Manager’s Guide.
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries . 431

—

book itself–are reading, planning, and careful performance of the exercises. The instructors encourage the students to read for conceptual understanding and to underline especially important sections. Planning is also an integral part of the instructional methodology. Each exercise is accompanied by a planning sheet for the students to

complete. Once they read about the skills required

to perform specific operations, they reinforce their

understanding by planning how they will utilize

those skills to complete the practical exercise.

They then develop the skills by performing the exercise specified in the workbook.

Since each lesson is constructed of interlocking

steps—each of which presents new information

and introduces new skills while reinforcing skills

and information learned in previous steps—students are strongly encouraged not to skip over any

of the reading or planning phases. *

Traing Materials. -Each student receives a

workbook, a Training Handbook and Proedures

Guide, a magnetic tape which is fed into the computer and contains student exercises, and audio

tapes for the audio-guided segment in lesson one.

In addition to the student material, the customer

firm also receives a manager’s guide.

Evaluation of Students.– Each lesson of

CADAM basic contains a self-evaluation quiz to

help students gage their own progress in the

course. Successful completion of the training does

not depend on passing a final examination, but employers sometimes request the trainers to provide

them with informal evaluations of the students to

help them determine which should be given chief

responsibility for operating the system at the

customer’s site.

Student Evaluation of the Course.–Students

are asked to complete written evaluations of the

course, the instructor, and the training materials.

On a seven-point scale, students rate the course

objectives, handouts, visual aids, homework,

course content, applicability to their own needs,

and the instructor. They also provide comments

on the usefulness of the material, and their own

ease or difficulty in absorbing it, and suggestions

for improvement. After the interim revision of the

course, ratings improved by up to two points,

jumping from five or below to over six on the seven-point scale.**

*See p. 23 for customer response to the ‘reading-planning-performance’ methodology.

**Since the final revision of the course was released shortly’ before

the writing of this study, information on student evaluations of the final

version of the course was not available.

Follow-up.–At the present time, follow-up of

program graduates is informal. * CADAM maintains a hot line which can be used by customers

who experience software difficulties or run into

operation problems they cannot solve, and a nunlber of customers call the trainers directly for help

with difficult problems.

Results

Number Trained. -From January through September 1982, CADAM instructors trained over

700 customer employees. That number, however,

represents a small portion of trained CADAM system users, according to CADAM’s training director. Because of the significant investment of time

and money involved in sending employees to the

~ADAM training facility or bringing a CADAM

trainer to the customer site, most users send an

‘‘advance guard’ who receive the training and return to train other employees.

Productivity Results.–While it is difficult to obtain quantifiable data on the results of the training as discrete from the results of system use, the

subjective evaluations of CADAM customers and

the improvement in the student ratings of the basic course on CADAM’s own seven-point rating

scale indicate that, for the most part, CADAM

system training effectively supports the product.

Nevertheless, a few customers have experienced

some problems with the training.

Problems/Solutions.—

Organizational Difficulties: Personnel and Instructional Materials. –The most significant problem faced by the CADAM training division was

that of organizing the training staff and the training material to lower the cost and increase the consistency of the training itself. Creation of the program design department freed the trainers from

the responsibility of developing their own training material. The self-instructional training package developed for the basic course also frees

CADAM from some of the service costs (providing

an instructor to teach the course, etc. ) and offers

customers the option of purchasing training for

slightly more than half the cost of the instructordelivered course. While not all CADAM courses

are amenable to the self-study format, the training division plans to package the basic II terminal

operations, analysis procedures, and 3-D piping

courses as self-study programs.

Solution to the problem of organizing the staff

and materials, while decreasing the cost, created

*The training director intends to formalize the follow-up procedures

once all of the customer courses have been revised.
432 Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

another problem. Some of the instructors had difficulty accepting the change in focus in the revised

basic course—from the individual instructor’s interpretation and explanation to the highly structured and print-centered instructional material.

These instructors point out that the new course

allows for less interaction between students and

instructors. Other instructors, who have taught

the basic course so frequently that they felt themselves growing stale, believe that the new basic

course allows them to aid the students’ progress

with more ease than in the past, and these trainers

appreciate the opportunity to apply their efforts

to the more advanced courses.

The solution to this problem of mixed instructor response to the new training method is being

achieved through a give-and-take process of gradual accommodation. The instructors are required

to learn new techniques and methods which focus

on facilitating the students’ understanding of the

print-centered material rather than on the instructors’ own expertise and experience with the system. However, the division management points

out that the instructors will be able to become experts in teaching specific aspects or applications

of the system in advanced courses which will continue to require a large degree of teacher-student

interaction. While the students lose some degree

of personal interaction, they receive instructional

materials which thoroughly cover each step of the

process in a consistent manner and which can be

used as readily accessible review material after the

training is completed.

Trainee-Centered Problems.–As with other

training programs in computer-aided manufacturing and design, approximately 5 percent of trainees

in the CADAM basic course exhibit resistance to

it. CADAM training division representatives say

the root cause of this is “computer anxiety, ” a syndrome with two major aspects: the trainees’ fear

that they will be replaced by a computer and the

corresponding fear that they will not be able to

master the “monster” that is replacing them.

In some instances, “computer anxiety” is accompanied by another negative response, labelled

by CADAM trainers as the “It’ll All Go By” syndrome (the belief that computer-aided design is a

flash-in-the-pan trend which will never create

significant changes in design work). Trainees who

do show this type of resistance are in the minority and are, according to CADAM trainers, usually designers, engineers, or drafters nearing retirement age. While the growth of CAD/CAM has reduced the numbers of trainees who believe that

“it’ll all go by,“ “computer anxiety” remains a

significant problem for some trainees. CADAM

trainers address this problem by explaining that

the system is a new tool that can only make their

jobs easier. The student workbook for the basic

course also helps the trainees to overcome their

anxiety by, again, referring to the system as a tool

rather than as a threat and introducing the students to the terminals within the first 8 hours of

instruction by moving them into a hands-on exercise that is easy to execute and has minimal potential for failure.

CADAM trainers estimate that fewer than onequarter of the initially resistant trainees (2 percent

of the total student group) retain their resistance

after the first two 2 days; they report that many

such students have returned to take advanced

courses. Approximately 1 percent of all trainees

fail to learn the system, not because of resistance

to the training, but because of a “mental block, ”

or inability to understand what is required to operate the system.

Another problem—one experienced by the majority of trainees-is that the basic course presents

such a large volume of information that most students do not grasp all of it during the week-long

course. Extension of the course into a second week

was rejected as a solution because the customer

firms can rarely spare their employees for that

length of time. The new instructional materials are

designed to address the problem of “overload” by

presenting the information in the building block

pattern with built-in redundancies to reinforce

knowledge of the previous steps. In addition, the

new course material works as a reference guide

once the training has been completed.

Evaluation of Present and Future

Capacity to Meet Training Needs

Merrill Lynch states: “As users become more sophisticated, we envision a move toward general

purpose mainframe computers at the high end application level for maximum performance and ability to do data base management , . . . This trend implies a change in character of some vendors toward

being CAD/CAM system integrators. ”3 CADAM’s

orientation to the systems integration approach,

and CADAM management’s belief that training

is an integral element in that approach, may be the

‘CAD/CAM Review and Outlook, 1981, p. 2. The Merrill Lynch 1982

CAD/CAM Review and Outlook user survey, however, found that

among the overall disadvantages of mainframe systems are insufficient

software and support, high initial expenses, and the fact that the entire system goes down when the CPU does.
-..

Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries . 433

key to the future potential of both the software

product and the training that supports it. However, it should be noted that under its installed

user program IBM also markets CAD software

produced by other firms.

Two of those software packages–CAEDS, developed by Structural Dynamics Research Corp.,

and circuit board design system, developed by a

Canadian firm-address specific CAD applications

and not the broad design and manufacturing market aimed at by CADAM; but the third package–

CATIA, developed by Dassault Systems in

France-does, according to an IBM representative, have some potential “overlap” with CADAM

Inc. ’s software applications. In addition, IBM also

markets a CADAM training package, called a

“Graphics Training Aid, ” developed by Westinghouse’s Industry Motor Division in Roundtree,

Tex. The Graphics Training Aid was purchased by

approximately 50 companies in 1982, primarily

those intending to set up their own internal

CADAM training operations.

While neither Westinghouse nor IBM views the

Westinghouse Training Aid, which most buyers

purchase as a self-study package, as being in direct

competition with CADAM system training, the

Westinghouse package does give the customer the

option of purchasing training other than that supplied by CADAM. Furthermore, CADAM training is also sold by independent engineering and

consulting firms—one of which, according to one

customer interviewed, delivered 2 weeks of “excellent” training to his employees. The “partnership”

with IBM, then, does not give CADAM a monopoly on IBM’s hardware customers--nor does the

firm’s own training department have a monopoly

on CADAM training,

Customer Evaluations.–Six CADAM Inc. customers, most of whom had received training after

either the interim or final revisions of CADAM basic had been completed, were interviewed. Most

of them represented medium- to large-sized firms

which had previous experience with either the

CADAM system or other computer-aided design

systems, and some are actively engaged in networking CAD and CAM capabilities. Responses

to a request for an overall evaluation of the training—including content, delivery, and applicability to specific company needs—ranged from “reasonable” and “good” to “excellent.” One customer, who had received CADAM training in January 1982, went to an outside consultant for further CADAM training a few months later and returned to CADAM at the end of 1982 for more

training, said that training and other support supplied by CADAM was inadequate in January but

had shown “great improvement” and “greatly increased attention to detail” by the end of the year.

Benefits.–One customer—who had made a

3-year study of the CAD market before purchasing a system—said that the real benefit of the

training delivered by the CADAM training department, as opposed to CADAM training delivered

by other vendors, is that the trainees learn how

to make the most efficient use of the system in the

shortest period of time. Most of the customers said

that, after completing formal CADAM system

training programs, they felt well prepared to embark on the most significant portion of the training—the period directly following the formal

course when the systems are used for actual production work. During this 2- to 4-week period,

most of those interviewed reported that their new

CADAM system operators got “up to speed” (i.e.,

produced designs at rates which matched or exceeded manual drawing times) even faster than anticipated. Those who had purchased or were considering purchasing the self-study packages felt

that this new option was a tremendous benefit, primarily because of the perceived need for ongoing

internal CAD training.

Problems.–Aside from the problems mentioned

in the preceding pages of this section, the most frequently articulated problem was that the terminals at the CADAM Inc. training center occasionally went “down” or had poor response-time. (None

of the customers interviewed have had equipment

problems at their own installations, however, and

many reported “incredibly quick’ response times

averaging 0.15 second.) While the equipment problems at CADAM–which are currently being addressed–do not reflect on the trainers or on the

training materials, they did create an atmosphere

of frustration which colored the trainees’ perception of the training course. One customer, whose

firm is located in the Southeast, has had numerous

problems with the CADAM hotline, which, he

claims, is often inaccessible to Eastern customers

because it only operates durring business hours on

Pacific time. This customer has lodged a formal

request to encourage CADAM to extend its hotline hours to accommodate customers located in

other time zones.

All of those interviewed agreed that CADAM

training is extremely expensive relative to customer training provided by the majority of other

computer-aided-design firms. While most accepted

the high cost of the training as either a necessary
434 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—. ———— ——

evil or as the price of learning to be effective users

of the CADAM system, one customer labelled the

price of the training as “outrageous–highway robbery. ” Although most of those interviewed

thought that the cost of the self-study packages

($650 per kit, as opposed to $1,250 per student for

the Basic course) makes CADAM training a more

reasonable investment, one believed that even the

self-study package was “twice what it should be. ”

Training for Profit: Pros and Cons.–CADAM’s

training director points out that, while many hardware (and hardware/software) firms provide training free of charge to their customers—or at rates

far below those charged by CADAM–by, in essence, folding the cost of training into the hardware or software prices, CADAM’s procedure of

pricing training to cover the operating and development costs of the training division creates certain benefits for both the customer and the training deliverer,

For one, customers get what they pay for—i.e.,

customers who require little or no training are not

subsidizing the training of other customers. Secondly, he says, because training costs are frequently buried in equipment or operating costs, most

companies do not recognize that good training is

expensive to develop and deliver. It is for this reason, he believes, that training is often “too little

and too late” and is often among the first support

functions to be cut back during economic downturns; so that, along with recognizing that training is a necessity if sophisticated equipment is to

be used effectively, company management must

also recognize the actual costs of creating and

maintaining training functions.

The status of training within CADAM’s organizational structure—the fact that the training

function is the sole responsibility of one of the four

major divisions—indicates CAX)AM management’s recognition that training itself is of pivotal

importance in the CAD/CAM field. The scope and

degree of CADAM’s commitment to training is

possibly unique in some respects. Cert airily the relative size of the training division (8 percent of the

firm’s employees) is unusual,* as is the fact that

the training director reports directly to the president of the firm.

Also unusual is the degree of flexibility and responsibility accorded to the training division. The

division is responsible for providing “quality”

training to support the software product and for

--

* I t should be noted , however, that the ratio of training division personnel to other CADAM employees would be more difficult to achieve

in a larger firm.

making a profit. Also, it is given the flexibility, the

resources, and the communicative channel with

the product development department necessary to

fulfill that responsibility. A comment by a training division representative provides a cogent description of the firm’s approach to training in general: “We’re trying to turn the old situation of

training departments around. Most training departments are not given enough responsibility and

accountability and have a subservient position in

the company, reporting through many levels of bureaucracy, In a high tech field, training can no

longer be handled in a subsidiary, low-level, lowpriority fashion-it too important. Things are too

volatile and they change too fast. ”

By designating the training division as a profitcenter and by providing it with the resources and

organizational support to produce a well-designed

training product, CADAM management has made

an investment in the training itself. This means

that the training product must be high-quality if

the firm is to realize a return on its investment indirectly (in terms of product support) and in terms

of direct profit from the training charges. Profit

realized from the training is used to pay the training division’s operating costs and to fund development of new training programs and refinement of

already-existing courses,

As a profitmaking entity whose training product

entails a great deal of expense—both to the customer and to CADAM—the training division runs

the risk of, as one customer put it, pricing itself

out of the training market. And when high prices

are combined with a reluctance on the trainers’

part to go beyond the contents of the basic course

when students ask about advanced applications,

the CADAM training division also runs the risk

of giving some customers the impression that their

specific needs will be attended to only insofar as

they do not extend into areas covered by further

training, i.e., which entail further purchases of

training.

On the other hand, statements by trainers in

some user firms support the assertion of

CADAM’S training director that the common

practice of burying training costs in operating or

other expenses keeps management unaware of the

real costs of providing training. It is possible that

what is perceived as an “outrageous” training cost

actually reflects a reality that most industries are

not used to seeing. The training division’s cognizance of the need to lower training costs while

maintaining quality resulted in development of the

self-study packages that both reduce cost and en-
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies Summaries ● 435

..— - —. — ——. . . — .——— —

able customers to train future generations of users

with the same instructional material. It remains

to be seen whether the self-study package will

solve the problem of high cost.

The firm’s capacity to meet the direct training

needs of future CADAM customers will depend on

its ability to maintain its gains in improving the

quality of the courses and to develop new courses

while keeping its prices within reasonable limits.

CAD AM approach to training presents an interesting conundrum. On one hand, CADAM illustrates that significant time and money spent to

make training a “first priority’ can be seen as investments rather than as begrudged expenses. The

firm also illustrates that the investment of those

resources in well-designed and adequately tested

training can increase productivity and profit. On

the other hand, it maybe a matter of questionable

prudence for CADAM to be among the few software providers pricing their training “realistically. ” Can they “educate” the entire population of

users as to the actual costs of training, or will other

training vendors who offer “CAD AM” instruction

at a lower price deprive the trainin g division of significant numbers of students?

Although CADAM training appears to be of a

high standard, it also appears to some customers

that CADAM’s packaging of training as a highpriced commodity sometimes impinges on its overall effectiveness by limiting the information available to trainees in the basic classes. It would seem

then, that there is an attitudinal problem on the

part of both the recipients and the provider of

training, each with his own expectations of the

proper form of training and the behavior of trainers. More explicit communication between the

trainers-who must use the limited time at their

disposal to present a great deal of material in a systematic fashion—and the customers—who have

varying needs which may not always mesh with

the highly structured basic course–would ameliorate this difficulty.
436 Computerized Manufacturing AutomatIon: Employment, Educatfon, and the Workplace

— . — — — — — - —-

Case Study 4

Programmable Controller Training Program

International Brotherhood of Electrical

Workers, Local 11 Los Angeles County

Chapter, National Electrical

Contractors Association

Summary

The Los Angeles Electrical Training Trust is the

training arm of the Joint Apprenticeship Training

Committee of the International Brotherhood of

Electrical Workers (IBEW) Inside Construction

Local 11 and the Los Angeles Chapter of the National Electrical Contractors’ Association (NECA).

The Training Trust, supported by Local 11 members and the electrical contractors who employ

them, provides a 4-year apprenticeship training

program and voluntary courses for Local 11 journeymen.

In the late 1970’s, the Trust began addressing

the need to provide journeyman training in the

skills required to install, troubleshoot and maintain the electronic devices that were beginning to

replace a number of the hard-wired electrical devices involved in inside-construction in factories,

plants, and offices. This study focuses on one set

of course offerings provided by the Trust—a series of three courses on the installation, programing, and troubleshooting of programmable controllers,

Background: Los Angeles Electrical

Training Trust

The Los Angeles Electrical Training Trust

(ETT) was established in 1964 to support educational and training programs for apprentices and

journeymen covered under the collective bargaining agreement between IBEW Local 11 (Inside

Construction) and the Los Angeles Chapter of the

National Electrical Contractors’ Association

(NECA). * As provided for in the Labor Manage-

— — . —

*Local 11 is one of 365 I BE W reside construction locals, whose membership work primarily for independent electrical contractors. The

IBEW also maintains manufacturing locals, serving electrical/electronic

manufacturing firms; maintenance locals, whose members do in-plant

maintenance; utility locals serving public power companies: and telephone locals. Because members of Inside Construction Locals often

work for a series of small to medium-sized contracting firms which do

not have the resources to provide in-plant skills training, the Inside Conment Relations Act of 1947, the Trust is jointly

operated by local union and management representatives and is supported by regular contributions from Local 11 members and their employers.

Under the terms of the current collective bargaining agreement, Local 11 members contribute 5@

for every hour worked into the Trust, while their

employers contribute 150 for every employeehour.

While the primary responsibility of the Trust is

to provide apprenticeship training, the Los Angeles ETT–along with a number of the other local

IBEW training organizations in the United

States–also operates an active journeyman skills

improvement program.

All apprentice and journeyman courses are held

in training facilities that are either owned, leased,

or rented by the Trust. To accommodate the approximately 7,000 journeymen and 650 apprentices in the Local’s Los Angeles County jurisdiction (covering 4,069 square miles) the Trust

maintains five training centers: one “Metro Facility” in downtown Los Angeles, and one in each of

the district’s four other dispatch areas. The Metro

Facility, opened in March 1981, contains seven

classrooms and 8,000 square feet of laboratory

area (including a $300,000 process instrumentation

lab, as well as laboratories for welding, house wiring, conduit bending, motor controls, transformers, fiber optics, high-voltage cable splicing, air

conditioning, and fire alarms and life safety instruction). Two of the dispatch area training facilities have permanent laboratories, while the

other two occupy rented space which is converted

into temporary laboratories for training purposes. *

Training Trust Administration and Staff .-–In

accordance with the provisions of the Labor Manstruction Locals are among the most active in delivering journeyman

training under the auspices of Joint Apprenticeship Training Committees.

The National Electrical Contractors Association maintains 135 local

chapters throughout the United States. The Los Angeles Chapter currently has 230 member contracting firms, 35 of which have 30 or more

permanent employees and often provide design and engineering as well

as installation services. The remainder of the members employ an average of 10 to 12 full-time workers. NECA members provide electrical contracting services to a wide variety of customers, including manufacturing firms, powerplants, newspapers, hospitals, schools, and offices. A

number of NECA members are also members of the IBEW.

*By the end of 1983, the Trust hoped to have established permanent

training facilities in all of the dispatch areas.
— — .

—..— . . — — ——. .—

agement Relations Act, the Trust Fund is controlled and administered by a six-member Board

of Trustees with equal union-management representation. In addition to the Board of Trustees,

the Los Angeles ETT is also served by five Joint

Apprenticeship Subcommittees (JASC–one in

each of the district’s five dispatch areas) and the

Joint ,Journeyman Educational Advisory Committee (JJEAC). On the permanent staff of the Training Trust are the director, a staff representative

in charge of apprenticeship training, a staff representative for journeyman training, and a senior

instructor. The majority of the courses are taught

by journeyman electricians who serve as part-time

instructors for the Trust.

The Trust director is appointed by the trustees

and is responsible for the ongoing operation of the

training programs. The current director, appointed

in 1978, has had previous experience as both an

IBEW journeyman and an electrical contractor.

Both staff representatives have worked as IBEW

journeymen and foremen, and both have had previous experience working with training and educational programs. All of the approximately 25 parttime instructors who teach the apprenticeship programs are credentialed as part-time instructors by

the State of California. The 58 instructors who

teach journeyman courses are not required to obtain State teaching licenses; approximately half of

them, however, are credentialed.

Philosophy of Training: General Goals.-The

major goal of the Electrical Training Trust is to

deliver comprehensive apprenticeship training and

provide journeymen with the opportunity to improve or reinforce existing skills and develop new

skills required by the changing electrical/electronics field. According to the ETT’s director of journeyman training, the line between electricity and

electronics is beginning to dissolve; electricians intent on keeping their skills current, therefore, must

develop new skills in electronics and computeraided equipment.

Because of the voluntary nature of journeyman

training, the Trust’s educational philosophy aIso

stresses motivation and creating an awareness of

new skill needs to encourage journeymen to take

advantage of the training courses offered. Individual motivation and self-initiative are especially significant, since approximately 25 percent of the

membership is hired for relatively short installation jobs out of the union hiring hall. Of the remainder, approximately 60 percent are permanently employed and 40 percent work for two to three

contractors per year.

Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries . 437

— . —.— —

Another aspect of the Trust’s training philosophy is that it is the right of each journeyman who

works at least 6 months per year to take any

course offered in the skill-improvement program

if he or she has completed the prerequisite courses,

To avoid discouraging voluntary participation in

the program, no grades are assigned at the end of

the courses, and (for the majority of courses) no

selection criteria are applied. The introduction of

coursework on computer-based equipment like programmable controllers and process-instrumentation devices has, however, created exceptions to

the general free-enrollment procedure. Because not

all of the students who enrolled in the intermediate

programmable controller courses had a solid grasp

of the fundamentals taught in the basic course, selection procedures have now been instituted for

that course, The process instrumentation program–a lengthy series of courses totalling 795

hours–requires students to pass an evaluation as

an admission requirement and to pass examinations before proceeding from one course to the

next.

Training Overview.– The Los Angeles Training

Trust delivers required courses for apprentices and

“pending examination wiremen ” and voluntary

courses for journeymen. Apprentices take a total

of 840 hours of work-related classroom instruction

at the Trust, extending over a 4-year period (3

hours per night/2 nights per week). * Related instruction courses include electrical code, mathematics, blueprint reading, first aid, pipe bending,

welding, instrumentation, basic transistors, and

electronics. Applications for the apprenticeship

program are accepted every 2 years in Los Angeles. During the most recent application period,

1,650 candidates applied for the 100 to 200 apprenticeship openings anticipated over the next 2

years. New apprentices are admitted to the program on the basis of their rank score from the oral

interview.**

“Pending examination ” (PE) wiremen are experienced electricians who have not gone through the

*The L. A. Trust apprenticeship program is based on the4- year program offered by the National Joint Apprenticeship and Training Committee in Washington, D.C. While the International sets guidelines for

apprenticeship training, Locals have flexibility in setting their own programs. The Inside Construction Local in Detroit for example. requirers

672 hours of related instruction, delivered once every 2 weeks 18 hours

per day).

**Of the 1,650 recent applicants, 1,150 passed the qualifying examination. which focuses on mathematics skills. Those who qualifed on the

basis of the examination were then interviewed and were ranked from

1 to 1,150 on the basis of the interview AS apprenticeship opening.

occur over the next 2 years, candidates will be called according to their

placement on the list.
438 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

-. — . — .

apprenticeship program but who instead become

members when their employer signs an agreement

with the Local. The PE program originated in Los

Angeles in 1980 and has now spread throughout

California and into some other States as well.* PE

wiremen receive journeyman wages but are required to take an evaluation examination and to

attend a concentrated 2-year, four-semester course

series to reinforce their knowledge through formal

study and to upgrade their skills, At the end of

the program, they take the formal journeyman’s

examination to achieve full journeyman status.

Both the apprenticeship and the PE programs

are administered through the Los Angeles County

Schools’ Regional Occupational Program, which

serves as registrar for the two Trust programs discussed above.

Approximately 2,000 journeymen completed

voluntary skill-improvement courses in 1981-82.

Journeyman courses range from 3-week reviews of

recent changes in the national electrical code to 13-

week courses in advanced blueprint reading to a

3 l/2-year series of courses on process instrumentation. ** The journeyman skill-improvement program is focused on reinforcing core trade skills and

introducing new skills in demand in the local marketplace. Among those new skills are those required to install, program, troubleshoot programmable controllers, process instrumentation skills,

and test and splice fiber optics cable.

Programmable Controller (PC) Courses

Planning and Development.—The need for

coursework in programmable controllers was first

brought to the attention of the Training Trust in

1978 by members of the Joint Journeyman Educational Advisory Committee (JJEAC). One of the

committee members—a general construction manager for a large contracting firm that designs, engineers, and installs computerized systems for materials handling and process control–played an

instrumental role by convincing the committee of

the need, by providing advice on prerequisite

*In may ~em of the count~, experienced electricians who enter Inside Construction Locals when their shops are organized automatically

become full-fledged journeymen. Approximately 400 P. E. wiremen are

now taking courses at the L. A. Training Trust.

**~Wess instnmmtation is the application of electric, electronic,

and/or air controls to regulate pressures for measuring fluids or gases

and for indicating and controlling levels, temperatures and flow of liquids or gases. Students in the process instrumentation program are

taught how to inspecL calibrate, install, tune, and troubleshoot computer-aided instrumentation and process-control systems used in chemical and petrochemical plants, refinene~ breweries, food processing, and

other industries.

coursework and equipment, and by recommending

potential instructors.

Following the advice of its “area expert, ” the

committee recommended that the Trust first develop a motor controls course to aid in preparing

interested journeymen to take the more advanced

PC courses. Westinghouse’s Standard Control Division in El Monte, Calif., proved to be extremely

helpful in the development stage, both by providing equipment at a greatly reduced rate and by recommending one of its applications specialists to

be the course instructor. The curriculum for the

first programmable controller course was developed by the Westinghouse specialist, reviewed and

modified by JJEAC to increase its focus on the

specific needs of Local 11 journeymen, and approved by the Board of Trustees late in 1980.

The first class was offered in October 1981, and

the course has now become a staple offering of the

Trust’s journeyman skill improvement program.

In the fall of 1982, the Westinghouse specialist

who developed and taught the basic course began

teaching an intermediate course, PC III, to graduates of the basic course. PC II, a hands-on course

covering similarities and differences of four of the

major programmable controllers on the market,

will be offered in the summer of 1983.

Goals and Objectives.—Specific goals and objectives of the programmable controller courses support the major objective of the Training Trust’s

journeyman skill improvement program, which is

to provide Local 11 members with the opportunity

to develop knowledge and skills in all areas of electricity/electronics applicable to employment opportunities in the Los Angeles area covered by the

Trust agreement. This entails not only meeting

current needs, but attempting to forecast future

needs so that the Local will be able to provide a

trained work force when opportunities occur.

Courses that develop skills in high-technology

fields such as programmable controllers, process

instrumentation, and fiber optics are considered

by the Trustees and the JJEAC to be crucial areas

of education and training for journeymen who

want to keep pace with the skill requirements of

the local marketplace. In the words of the Trust’s

director of journeyman training, “The only things

we have to sell are our skills and knowledge-these

must be pertinent. ”

Since the Trust was established to serve both

union members and the contractors who employ

them, its goal in offering the programmable controller courses is twofold: to provide appropriate

skill training to Local 11 members, and to meet
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 439

the needs of signatory contractors, more and more

of whom are making installations involving programmable controllers. The specific objectives of

the series of PC courses offered by the Trust are

to train journeymen to install, provide power to,

program, and troubleshoot programmable controllers. The goal of PC 1 is to provide a basic introduction to installation and programing requirements

so that a graduate of the course could, under the

direction of a skilled foreman, aid in PC installations on the job. The goal of the intermediate

course is to provide additional information and

practice in programing and to teach troubleshooting techniques to enable members to do installation work with less supervision.

With the addition of the PC 111 course, the PC

series will fulfill its overall objective—to familiarize advanced students with installation, programing, and troubleshooting techniques specific to the

major PC systems in use in the Los Angeles area

in order to provide them with increased work opportunities.

Administrative and Instructional Staff.–The

Trust “staff representative” who directs the journeyman skill-improvement training is an active

supporter of ‘‘high-technology training’ for journeymen. The journeyman training department

took major responsibility for locating the equipment and the instructor for the original PC course

and for ongoing coordination of what is now a series of courses on programmable controllers.

Until the first few months of 1983, all of the programmable controller courses were taught by a

single instructor, a Westinghouse applications specialist employed by the sales and customer support group of the Standard Control Division’s

Numa Logic Department. His prior technical experience includes work as an IBEW journeyman

electrician-then as a draftsman, nuclear power engineer, and control panel designer. Previous to his

employment by the Training Trust as a PC instructor, he had taught a series of courses on programmable controllers to employees of the Los

Angeles Department of Water and Power. By the

spring of 1983, four new instructors-Local 11

journeymen who have either taken previously offered PC courses at the Trust or have on-the-job

experience—will begin teaching the basic course.

1n addition, they have completed customer

courses, paid for by the Trust and delivered by

Allen Bradley, Modicon, and Westinghouse–all

major producers of programmable controllers in

the United States.

Equipment.–The “Metro Facility” of the Training Trust contains four classrooms and three classroom\labs, one of which is available for PC courses.

In addition, PC classes are also offered on a rotating basis at training sites in four of the district’s

dispatch areas. As of this writing, the Trust owns

two Westinghouse 700 series Numa Logic Programmable Controllers, which are transported by

the instructor from one training facility to another

as the occasion demands. * The administrative

staff of the Trust is currently in the process of purchasing programmable controllers manufactured

by Allen Bradley, Modicon, and Texas Instruments in preparation for the PC 111 course to be

offered in the summer of 1983.

Costs and Funding.–The journeyman skill-improvement courses are supported entirely by

Training Trust funds. Most cost items for the programmable controller courses were not available

(administration, instructor salaries, student materials, or classroom rental). The two major items

of equipment currently in use—the Westinghouse

programmable controllers, valued at $25,000

each—were purchased by the Trust for a total of

$10,000. In addition, the Trust has set aside funds

for the purchase of the other three PC systems to

be used in the advanced course.

Costs to Students.–Tuition and instructional

materials are free of charge to eligible journeymen

and apprentices (see Selection, below). However,

to encourage students to complete the courses, a

$10 deposit is charged at the beginning of every

course and is refunded to those students with satisfactory attendance records.

Selection Procedures and Enrollment Trends.—

Selection—Journeyman skill-improvement

courses are open to all members of Local 11 who

have worked 6 or more months out of the preceding year for signatory unions.** Apprentices are

discouraged from doing so until they have learned

the fundamentals of the trade. To date, no apprentices have completed the basic course.

Until recently, no enrollment control existed for

either the basic or intermediate PC courses, aside

from the necessity of completing the basic course

*Though the Metro Facility provides secure storage space for equipment, the other training sites do not. Furthermore, classes have, in the

past, been offered concurrently at more than one facility. The compact,

transportable equipment therefore gives the Trust the flexibility to offer classes at more than one site.

**Since the Traing Trust is supported by a small proportion of the

fringe benefits attached to the wages of working members of the Local

and by contractors who are signatories to the trust agreement,

25-452 0 - 84 - 29 : QL 3
440 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

———.

(PC I) before signing up for PC 11.* Since, however, regular attendance is the only formal graduation requirement, some graduates of the basic

course have signed up for the intermediate course

without the prerequisite skills and knowledge to

benefit from the more advanced instruction. In

February 1983, a new policy was established

whereby members who enroll in PC I take an entrance examination covering motor control theory.

Those who do not pass the exam are encouraged

to take the motor controls course offered by the

Trust before continuing with the basic PC course.

Admission to PC II is now at the discretion of the

instructor, who will base his decision on a review

of completed homework exercises required in PC

I.** When the advanced course, PC III, is

delivered in the summer of 1983, only those whose

homework in PC II exhibits a thorough understanding of the intermediate course will be accepted. Those who are not accepted into PC II and PC

III will be encouraged to retake the preceding

course to bring their skills up to the required level.

Enrollment Trends/Attrition.-Accod.ng to the

Westinghouse instructor, the PC I and II courses

have been very well attended, sometimes drawing

as many as 32 enrollees for a single course. The

complexity of the coursework, however, and the

need of some of the PC I enrollees for background

coursework in motor controls and solid-state electronics, has resulted in an overall attrition rate of

approximately 33 percent.*** While the preferred

class size is 12, classes have ranged in size from

8 to 18 students. (Especially large classes are split

in two, which, until the recent addition of the two

extra instructors, presented problems for the

Westinghouse trainer, who had to teach classes

twice a week to accommodate all interested students.) Both enrollment and attrition are less in

PC II than in PC I.

The employment situation of the journeyman

electricians who enroll in the PC courses varies

considerably. Some are permanently employed by

employees covered under the IBEW Local 11 agreement who have

worked at least half the workdays of the year previous to enrolling in

classes have contributed to the trust fund and are therefore eligible.

Occasionally, members who have worked less than the normally required

6 months are allowed to attend classes. These decisions are made on

a caseby-case basis.

● Students with previous experience working with programable able controllers on the job may also test-in to the intermediate course without

having completed PC I.

● *Successful completion of homework assignments is not a requirement for graduation, only for entrance to the next course.

● **In recognition of the potential for attrition, the instructor has instituted the following practice. An entrance test concentrating on motor

controls theory is given on the first night, and those interested in participating were then interviewed and were ranked from 1 to 1,150 on

the basis of the interview. As apprenticeship openings occur over the

next 2 years, candidates will be called according to their placement on

the list.

signatory contractors;* some work for single contractors for long stretches of time (6 to 12 months)

on major installation jobs; others work “out of the

hall,” i.e., are not permanently or semipermanently

employed but rather are hired for relatively short

jobs out of the union hiring hall. Because of the

current economic situation in Los Angeles, a growing number of the students in PC courses work out

of the hall.

Two additional factors play a part in this enrollment trend: 1) large electrical contractors who provide design and engineering services as well as installation often provide in-house training for their

Local 11 employees who install programmable controllers, and it is these contractors who do most

of the PC installation in the county, and 2) a number of smaller contractors who are prepared to do

installations involving programmable controllers—and who would be likely to encourage their

employees to take the PC courses or to hire course

graduates-have been affected by the construction

slump.

Curricula: PC I—PC 111.–PC I and PC 11 were

both designed to be 18-hour courses, delivered in 3-

hour segments 1 evening a week for 6 weeks. However, because of the amount of material to be covered in the basic course, recent PC 1 courses have

been extended to 7 weeks. PC 111, currently in the

development stage, will be from 16 to 24 hours in

length and will take place on the weekends to enable students to attend intensive 8-hour-a-day

classes.

● PC I. —Students in this introductory course

learn terminology, the basics of the theories

behind programmable controllers, how to address the equipment, how it works, and basic

installation, programming, and applications.

Since the majority of students enter the class

with limited experience in solid-state controls,

the first two sessions are devoted to basic

theory–an introduction to logic and to Boolean algebra (session I), an introduction to solid-state controls, and a comparison between

solid-state and electromechanical devices (session II).

Programmable controllers are not introduced until the third session, when students

learn what programmable controllers are, how

they compare to electromechanical controls,

and some basic PC applications. installation

and basic programing (including an overview

of input and output devices and special functions involving timers, counters, and other devices) are covered in session IV. Sessions V-

● Contractors who operate “union houses” and are signatory to the

collective bargaining agreement between Los Angeles NECA and

IBEW Local 11.
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 441

—. — — .-

VII are primarily devoted to discussion and

practice of programing for specific applications. In addition, session Vii also covers

“multiplexing,” i.e., carrying out multiple

functions simultaneously in an independent

but related manner, an operation that often

involves combining several signals so that

they can be handled by a single device.

● PC 11 provides graduates of the PC 1 course

with the opportunity to practice the basic programing techniques they learned in PC I and

to learn more advanced programing applications. For example, they learn to program the

PCs to control a “bad parts detector” on a

manufacturing plant conveyor system by

writing and inputting programs for counting

the total number of parts on the line, counting the number of faulty parts, and for rejecting the parts that are flawed. 1n addition, the

students complete a number of troubleshooting exercises: the instructor puts “bugs” into

the classroom equipment and requires the students to tell him why the equipment is not

working, how they would fix it, and what the

result will be once the adjustment is made.

Both the programming and the troubleshooting experiences are of use to inside wiremen who, when they install programmable

controllers, often run a basic program for testing purposes and troubleshoot equipment

problems that may occur. Some wiremen may

also work for contractors who may be called

back to a facility to troubleshoot and repair

equipment that they installed initially.

● PC 111. —This course, now under development, will teach graduates of PC I I how to install, program, and troubleshoot the major

models of prograrnmable controllers currently

on the market. Accordingly, the course will focus on teaching the students the differences

and similarities between the Westinghouse

Numa Logic 700 Series used in PC I and PC

11 and the models produced by Allen Bradley,

Modicon, and Texas instruments, The Trust

is currently proceeding with plans to purchase

the equipment, and the Westinghouse instructor is designing the course materials.

Instructional Materials and Teaching Methods.— Instructional materials for the PC I course

were developed by the Westinghouse instructor

specifically for use in Training Trust courses,

Using some material from the Westinghouse

Numa Logic programing and applications manuals

and some original material, he devised an instructional package specifically geared for skilled

tradespeople with knowledge of electricity but not

necessarily of electronics. The same approach—

based on relating the principles, theories, and operation of programmable controllers to the theory

and operation of electrical and electromechanical

devices—is used in lectures and hands-on exercises. When teaching Boolean algebra, for example, the instructor relates it to common electrical

problems the trainees already understand, and

specific Boolean algebra problems given in class

and for homework are based on actual wiring problems the electricians would be likely to run into in

the field.

Another example of this approach would be the

instructor’s method of teaching the theory and

operation of timers and counters, which are among

the basic components of PC systems, He explains

the use and purpose of timers and counters by relating them to relays and electromechanical devices; explains how programing takes the place of

wiring when dealing with programmable controllers; and assigns in-class, hands-on exercises to

reinforce the basic concepts.

The initial exercise is always reinforced by a second exercise which is very similar to the first.

Homework, including reading and problem exercises, is assigned weekly to further reinforce the

material taught in class and to lay the basis for

the next week’s lecture and laboratory work. Although no final grade is given, tests are conducted

at the beginning and end of the course and are supplemented by weekly quizzes-all of which help the

instructor to know what to emphasize for each individual class,

Both PC I and PC II are approximately 70 percent lecture, 30 percent hands-on. In PC 11, the

prograrning and troubleshooting exercises become

more difficult as the course progresses, as the students are taught to reapply what they have already learned to increasingly difficult problems.

No specially designed training manual is used for

PC II. Instead, students use Westinghouse proF arning and applications manuals. Students in PC

111 will have access to the programing and application documentation for all of the systems taught

and will learn to write basic programs and modify

existing programs on these systems. In addition,

they will learn to identify similar problems in all

the models, along with methods for troubleshooting the various systems. Students in this advanced

course will be expected to complete a great deal

of reading on their own time to free up the majority of the class time for practical installation, programing, and troubleshooting exercises.

To increase the amount of hands-on time available to each student in the PC 1 I classes, a new

system was inaugurated in the 1983 winter-spring
442 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

—

schedule. Each student in these classes had the opportunity to take a programmable controller for

a week of at-home practice. In addition, students

in future classes will also have access to the new

training equipment presently being purchased,

which will be made available to them at the Metro

Facility when it is not being used for training

purposes.

Course and Student Evaluations.—

Evaluations of the Courses—Students complete

written evaluations of the course, the instructor,

the facilities, and the instructional material. While

there is no formal course evaluation by the trustees, the JJEAC, or the Training Trust staff, both

the IBE W Local and the local NECA chapter provide unofficial channels for evaluation of the

course by both contractors and journeymen. Contractors who employ union members who have

completed the class give NECA informal evaluations of the workers’ skills, and this information

is transmitted to the Trust through the contractormembers of the Trustee committee and the

JJEAC. Similar informal evaluations reach the

Trust via the union representatives who sit on the

various committees.

Evaluations of the Students.–Since journeyman skill-improvement courses are taken on the

students’ own time and on a voluntary basis, no

course grades are given, and it is not necessary to

pass a final examination to graduate from any

journeyman course. However, the new selection

criteria for admission to PC I and PC 11 will require that students in the less-advanced courses

illustrate the ability to proceed with more-advanced coursework as an admission requirement

to PC II and III.

Results

As of February 1983, 89 Local 11 members had

completed the basic course and 29 had completed

the intermediate course. Since the Trust has no

formal follow-up mechamism for tracking graduates of the journeyman courses, it is difficult to

assess the overall results of the training in terms

of job performance and/or expanded employment

opportunities. Interviews with the Training Trust

staff, the PC instructor, students, and contractors

have produced some data, which, though limited,

illustrate some training results in specific instances.

Of nine journeymen interviewed in the January

1983, PC II class, one was currently working on

a PC installation, one had been hired from the hall

to work on PC installations in the past, and

another was preparing to become one of the new

PC instructors. All three were taking the course

to increase their applications and troubleshooting

skills, and one noted that the course was especially

helpful in teaching him to recognize troubleshooting problems. The other six had not had the opportunity to work with programmable controllers

on the job, but were taking the course for two reasons: 1) to prepare themselves for future opportunities, and 2) because they believed it was incumbent on them to develop the skill to work with the

electronic and computer-aided equipment they

now see to be replacing electromechanical devices

in many operations.

Those who worked out of the hall stated that the

PC courses they had taken would give them a distinct advantage in obtaining work, since they

would be able to respond to “specialty calls” (requests for workers with specific skills) for PC installation when these come into the hiring hall. *

Six of the eight contractors interviewed provided in-house PC training for their Local 11 employees. ** One, however, said that he “expects”

his employees to take the Training Trust PC

courses and that eight of his employees who had

taken the course had improved their skills. While

one large contractor who provided formal training

classes did not see the need for his employees to

take the Trust classes, he did support the training for other, smaller contractors. Three others

who provided their own training did not have a

present need for more employees skilled in PC installation. They could anticipate, however, a future

need and thought that the course graduates would

be attractive hiring prospects.

One employee of another of the contractors had

taken the class but, because the contractor had an

adequate number of employees who were experienced in PC installations, the course graduate had

not yet had the opportunity to do any installations. He would, though, be “first in line” for such

work should the need arise. Another contractor,

who had hired two course graduates, noted that

the PC and process instrumentation courses provided by the Trust save contractors time and money by enabling them to make installations with-

*Although no formal refresher courses are provided for those who

do not have the opportunity to practice their new skills on the job, Local

11 members may maintain and increase their skills by taking the more

advanced coursee. PC 111 is so designed that students can benefit from

repeating it one or more times to get additional hands-on practice.

* *Tr~~ng rmgeg from form~ classes to on-thr+job instruction.
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 443 —

out first having their employees trained by

equipment manufacturers’ representatives.

In terms of direct results of the training, employers’ and students’ comments indicate that a relatively small proportion of the graduates (possibly

a third) have had an opportunity to make use of

their training on the job. Since, however, graduates of the courses delivered as far back as 1981

were not available for interviews, the actual number of graduates currently using their skills may,

in fact, be much larger.

For the remainder of the graduates, the primary

result of the training has been to increase their

employment potential and to offer them the opportunity to work with a higher level of technology

which, according to all the journeymen interviewed, is “more interesting and less dirty” than

the “wire pulling” and pipe bending they often do

on installation jobs. According to the Westinghouse instructor, who is also engaged in sales and

service of PCs and other control system components, today’s $370 million PC market represents

a tremendous growth over the last 3 years. He predicts that, by 1990, the market will have grown

to at least $500 million and that one result of that

growth will be an ever-increasing need for properly trained workers on the part of electrical contractors who install (and often design and engineer)

control systems for manufacturing facilities, processing plants, newspapers, and numerous other enterprises,

According to the chapter manager of the Los

Angeles chapter of NECA, the training provided

by the Trust gives small- and medium-sized contractors who do not have the resources to train inhouse the opportunity to bid on installations incorporating PCs and other sophisticated controls.

Not only will the Trust classes train their permanent employees, but they also help to develop a

pool of trained workers in the hiring hall who can

respond to the PC specialty calls from contractors.

This issue–i.e., the future potential of the graduates and the potential opportunities their new

sldls create for local contractors—will also be evaluated in section III. The remainder of this section

will focus on problems directly affecting the training courses, and the solutions to those problems.

Problems/Solutions.–Because so many of the

students do not have the opportunity to work with

PCs on the job, it became increasingly clear to the

instructor that the amount of class time available

for hands-on experimentation and practice on the

equipment was inadequate. Two new procedures,

both instituted in the first few months of 1983,

lessen the effects of this problem.

The extension of the PC I course to seven sessions has added 3 additional hours of hands-on

time, upping the total class hours available for laboratory work from 6 to 9. While the extra class

time is helpfuI, students in a class of 12 (the average size of Training Trust PC classes) still have

less than a few hours each on the equipment. It

is the second solution, therefore, which is the most

promising: in the PC II classes that began in January 1983, all of the students took one of the PC

consoles home for a week or more. This allowed

them to apply what they learned in PC I, and to

experiment with some of the programing applications they covered in the PC II. According to the

instructor, an “immense” improvement was seen

both in the weekly homework and in the final examination once all of the students had ample

hands-on opportunities.

Another new practice, soon to be instituted, will

allow for even more hands-on opportunities. The

Metro Facility laboratories will be made available

during the day and on those nights when PC

classes are not in session. This will enable advanced students in PC II and students in PC III

to practice on the Allen Bradley, Modicon, and

Texas Instruments programmable controllers,

while PC I and less advanced PC II students can

continue to use the Westinghouse systems at their

own homes. Since there is usually little or no overlap in the scheduling of PC I and PC 11 courses,

this system should provide ample hands-on opportunities for any student willing to avail himself of

them.

A second problem, closely related to the first,

is the lack of time in an 18- to 21-hour course to

cover a great deal of complex material. Here,

again, the extra session recently added to PC I will

be of help, as will the recent emphasis on encouraging those who do poorly on the entrance examination to first take the motor-controls course. The

instructor also encourages beginning students to

take the Trust’s process instrumentation course,

which covers the fundamentals of solid-state electronics and provides those students who take it

with basic skills and information applicable to the

PC courses. The more information about motor

controls and solid-state electronics entering PC

students have, the easier it becomes to move

quickly through the introductory material in the

first two sessions and spend more class time on

PC programing, installation, and applications.

Another related problem is the widely varying

knowledge and skills of the students. The instructor estimates that, in a class of 12, four or five

usually exhibit a ready grasp of the material. An-
444 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workp/ace

.— — ——.

other two or three demonstrate a less-than-complete understanding, while the remainder are unable to make the transition between the principles

governing electricity and those governing electronics and do not grasp the different approach required by programing as opposed to hard wiring.

On the other hand, he notes that many students

who “don’t get it” the first time around show great

deterrnination and repeat the basic course one,

two, and even more times.

Because the courses offered by the Trust are free

of charge to the students, motivated students who

nevertheless require additional time to absorb the

material can learn at their own pace—and, according to the instructor, “once it clicks, the worst hurdle is over and the rest comes with practice and

application. ” On the other hand, the great variety

of aptitude and learning speeds within a single

class does present a problem for the instructor and

holds back the faster learners, The newly instituted enrollment controls should relieve this problem to some extent, especially in PC II and III,

but it is doubtful that it can be entirely solved.

Similar problems have been noted in classes delivered by reprogrammable equipment vendors

and by many teachers of introductory courses in

a vast array of disciplines.

A final problem noted by the instructor is also

one that is common to other industrial training

courses involving reprogramable equipment. The

problem—resistance on the part of many students

in the basic course to the new concepts, theories,

and techniques that must be learned-manifests

itself in the Training Trust PC I classes as an initial attitude of skepticism held by as many as half

of the first-night enrollees. The instructor, therefore, devotes a portion of the first night’s lecture

to a general discussion of the growth of solid-state

controls and computer-aided equipment and the

present and potential effects of the changing technology on an electrician’s job.

He then presents his own perception of the

trade—that, in the very near future, if not in the

immediate present, there will be two kinds of electricians: technicians and those who, as the technology expands, will be stuck with lower level jobs.

Technicians, he says, will get better, steadier work,

while the others will spend more and more time in

the hiring hall.

While most of the students respond positively

to his appraisal, a few maintain their skepticism

and either drop out of the class or continue attending without applying themselves to the course material. In many cases, it is older workers who are

either nearing retirement-or who face the prospect of unlearning much of what they have spent

years learning-who are the most resistant to the

new technology. On the other hand, a number of

older students have learned rapidly and well.

Evaluation of Present and Future Capacity

Present Capacity.–According to local and national IBEW representatives and local representatives of the National Electrical Contractors Association, the Los Angeles Electrical Training

Trust has the financial resources and the solid

backing of both management and labor required

to maintain its current level of high-technology

training and to extend that training into other

high-technology fields as the needs arise. Local

IBE W and NECA officials believe that their working relationship is among the best in the country,

and this sentiment is echoed by individual contractors, union members, and the Training Trust staff.

The relationship between the union and the contractors’ association is, of course, a crucial factor

affecting the administration, direction, and the

specific trainin g courses offered by the Trust, since

the trustee committee, the educational committees, and all of the subcommittees have equal representation by labor and management.

High-technology training courses like those in

programmable controllers and process instrumentation are clearly advantageous to both the union

and the contractors’ association. According to the

Westinghouse instructor, PC manufacturers are

already having difficulty keeping up with installation and service support requests. As the PC market expands, manufacturers like Westinghouse

will-as Allen Bradley, Texas Instruments, and

Modicon have already done—turn more and more

to support system houses operated by electrical

contractors and distributors to provide design, engineering, installation, and service to the enduser. * This will result in expanded opportunities

for electrical contractors and a correspondingly expanded need for electricians trained in PC installation and service.

PC III training is especially beneficial to the

small contractor who operates independently of

the major manufacturers and who does not have

the advantage of distributing the equipment or of

*Whereas Allen Bradley, Modicon, and Texas Instruments use system houses for sales as well as design, installation, and support services to the customer, Westinghouse plans to continue selling its own

systems and to recommend certain system houses for engineering and

service,
—

Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries s 445

. —

customer referral by the manufacturers. Such

small-to-medium contractors must be able to handle installation and service of a variety of models

in order to bid on a larger number of contracts and

to purchase the best and most cost-effective systems for his customers’ specific needs. It is, therefore, to their obvious advantage to have permanent employees who are well-versed in a number

of different systems and to be able to place PC

“specialty calls” in the hiring hall when they need

extra workers for a large installation.

Local contractors interviewed had installed programmable controllers in a wide variety of enterprises, including food processing plants, refineries,

breweries, battery plants, and shipyards. A number of contractors specialize in conveyor systems

and had installed PC-automated conveyors in manufacturing and processing plants and in airports.

Two of the larger contractors had, in the past, installed PCs in auto assembly plants-including

F’ord, GM, Toyota America, and Honda. Now,

however, they are feeling the effects of the economic downturn and are forced to look out of the area

for large, heavy-manufacturing installation jobs.

Although the depressed state of some segments

of the local construction market has resulted in

fewer contracts and less work for electricians at

the present time, both management and union officials are committed to increasing the training effort. The relatively favorable construction market

in years past has produced a sizable trust fund,

making it possible for the trustees to invest in the

equipment and courses they believe are necessary

to prepare the workers to compete for present and

future jobs. Furthermore, some segments of the

market show signs of an upswing. There has, for

example, been a recent resurgence of the petroleum

industry in the area, which has produced work for

contractors and electricians skilled in process instrumentation.

Current Training-Retraining Issues.–

Higher Wages for Increased Sk”lls?-One of the

most significant training-related issues facing the

union and the contractors’ association is the feeling on the part of a number of contractors and

some union members that those journeyman electricians with high-technology skills should draw

higher wages than those who do not upgrade their

skills.

Supporters of the double wage structure for

journeymen fall into a number of camps. Some

support the notion of a “super-journeyman,” i.e.,

a journeyman who is, essentially, a technician with

skills in such areas as solid-state controls, process instrumentation, nuclear instrumentation, and/

or fiber optics and who would draw a higher hourly

wage than journeymen with “low-technology”

skills. The reasoning is that those electricians who

are already journeymen and have, essentially, been

“caught short” by the new technology should not

be “punished” for not developing new skills, but

that those who do upgrade their skills should be

given monetary incentives for doing so.

Other supporters of the double-wage structure

believe that a “sub-journeyman” classification

should be created for those without high-technology skills. Subjoumeymen would make less money

than fully fledged journeymen with technicianlevel skills and, again, would have a monetary incentive to develop expertise in electronics.

Other variations of support for a double, or a

sliding, wage scale would not change traditional

occupational classifications but would, in some

manner, provide higher wages for increased skills.

This could be achieved by classifying PC installation, process instrumentation, and other work involving high-technology skills as “specialist categories. ” This means that journeymen working on

jobs involving those skills would receive a premium wage for the duration of that job. Two such

specialist categories already exist: cable splicers,

who do hazardous work on high-voltage cables;

and electricians who are also certified welders.

Both receive extra pay when working on jobs requiring these extra skills. Those who would make

PC installation and process instrumentation into

specialist categories maintain that this would provide an additional incentive for electricians to upgrade their skills without creating sweeping

changes in the occupational structure of the union.

Local and national union officials are opposed

to the above-mentioned variations of a wage differential. The business manager of Local 11 points

out that the creation of a “super-journeyman’ category would place a burden on contractors, who

are already paying journeymen a regular wage of

more than $23 an hour in Los Angeles. On the

other hand, he believes that the creation of a “subjourneyman” classification would defeat the philosophy of the apprenticeship program and would

serve as a disincentive for apprentices, who would

have a double hurdle before becoming fdy fledged

journeymen. Creating a “specialist category” for

PC installation, he believes, is a stop-gap measure

that would, while creating a monetary incentive

for electricians, also place monetary restraints on

contractors. His approach—which is also the approach of training and education representatives
446 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

at International headquarters-is to focus on upgrading the general skill level of Local 11 journeymen to include skills in programmable controllers

and other solid-state electronic skills.

While both the local and international union representatives recognize that their approach is more

costly in terms of time (i.e., that higher wages for

high-technology skills would induce more journeymen to take advantage of training opportunities),

they also believe that the industry cannot afford

another wage increase. According to Local 11 representatives, those electricians who do not develop the skills required by the advancing technology

will be less and less capable of performing the work

and will, eventually, “be phased out” because of

inability to obtain work. International IBEW representatives concur in that prediction and emphasize that the value of a broad-based apprenticeship

program is that it creates a flexible tradesperson

skilled in a wide variety of tasks. Highly paid specialists, they argue, are too limited for the type of

work required by the vast majority of contractors.

Future Capacity.–The future capacity of the

Los Angeles Electrical Training Trust to provide

training and education in programmable automation and other increasingly technical electronic applications is dependent not only on the internal

capacity of the Trust to provide courses but also

on the continuing strength of the union itself. A

1980 electricians’ strike resulted in higher wages,

but also caused the loss of 50 to 100 small contractors from the Los Angeles NECA chapter. The

strike, which occurred in June, was followed by a

depression in the local construction market, which

put further strains on the remaining union contractors. At present, the approximately 40 percent of

electrical contractors in the Greater Los Angeles

Area who still maintain union shops must contend

with nonunion contractors who can often underbid them because of the lower wages received by

nonunion electricians.

Both the Local and the International recognize

the problem that the higher union wage scale poses

for the contractors. What the union has to offer,

they say, is responsible negotiation; an insistence

on apprenticeship training and an emphasis on

journeyman training; and a skilled pool of available labor in the hiring hall that obviates the

necessity of “permanently” hiring in times of

plenty and firing in lean times, Los Angeles NECA

representatives and local contractors interviewed

specifically emphasized their belief that the management of Local 11 is both responsible and responsive to the needs of the contractors.

The L.A. Training Trust–which stressed the

value of increased training when times were

good—is emphasizing it even more in times of difficulty. It is building its capacity to offer more–

and more advanced-courses to those who have

the individual motivation and who have responded

to the constant encouragement to take advantage

of the training opportunities that exist. The PC

111 course should take instruction in programmable controllers well beyond the “familiarization”

level of the PC I course. The process instrumentation program will produce “technicians” qualified at four advancing levels: device level, loop

level, system level, and instrumentation/process

control level. The Trust is also currently preparing instructors to teach fiber optics courses, and

is exploring the possibility of purchasing a Heathkit robot for a proposed robotics course.

In addition, the Los Angeles Trust has offered

to assist IBEW locals in other nearby jurisdictions

by opening the Trust laboratories to other Locals

by reciprocal agreement and helping them to design high-technology courses. Information provided by the Los Angeles ETT and by other local

IBEW training organizations funded by JATC

trusts is also being used by the International training organization to develop PC courses that, within the next 6 months, should spread to at least 100

other training sites. The international organization

is also developing materials to assist local organizations in teaching semiconductor and fiber optics

programs.

It is, however, utlimately the responsibility of

individual union members to support the Local’s

and the International’s claims of quality training

by voluntarily upgrading their skills in high-technology fields. The Training Trust itself is now facing the problem of attempting to provide “quality

training” while, at the same time, providing the

opportunity for all of the eligible Local 11 members to attend the courses. The evaluation and selection procedures instituted for the process instrumentation and programmable controller’s

courses go against the grain of the Trust’s basic

philosophy, but they nevertheless represent problems that are now being addressed.

To maintain credibility, the Inside Construction

Locals must continue to provide workers whose

skills are appropriate to the contractors’ needs. If

training organizations like the Los Angeles Training Trust cannot upgrade the skills of significant

numbers of journeymen through the provision of

voluntary courses, the union may be forced into

giving serious consideration to the “sub journeyman” concept—which, of all the variations of the

notion of wage differentials based on high-technology skills, seems to be gaining the most adherents.
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries . 447

——— — —

Case Study 5

CAD/CAM Operator Training Program: Glendale, Calif.

Summary

The Glendale CAD/CAM* operator training program was sparked by the spirit of innovation and

cooperation on both the State and local levels.

Funded by a combination of Federal and State

moneys and sponsored on the State level by two

State agencies, the Glendale program is one of six

pilot programs in California which bring together

colleges, industries, and local government agencies

to train California residents to work in emerging

or expanding technological fields. The Glendale

program, which trained participants with drafting

backgrounds to utilize computer-aided design systems for mechanical design and printed circuit

board detailing, was a cooperative venture between Glendale Community College, local industries, the City of Glendale, and other local organizations. At the end of the first cycle of the program, 7 of the initial 12 enrollees were employed

as CAD/CAM operators and three others found related drafting jobs. At this writing, the second cycle is still in session.

Background

Coordinated Funding Project for New Vocational Education Programs.—The Coordinated Funding Project—administered under the joint sponsorship of the Chancellor’s Office of California Community Colleges and the State’s Employment Development Department (E DD)—is an innovative,

State-level response to the need to develop vocational education programs in emerging and expanding technologies in a period of budget cuts

and reduced resources for educational programs.

The statewide project was created in response to

recommendations of a legislative “Task Group”

set up in 1979 to review vocational education in

California and to suggest how vocational education funds could be utilized most effectively. In its

final report, the Task Group made the following

recommendations: 1) adoption of State-level administrative policies to allow for consolidation of

resources,** 2) greater private-sector involvement

*Computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing.

* ● I t wa9 not~ in the report that the existence of a ‘‘myriad of programs providing occupational training” had resulted in fragmentation

of funding and administrative procedures and created a significant obstacle to effective coordination.

in vocational training, and 3) expansion of programs linking worksite training and classroom

instruction.

The Coordinated Funding Project is a combined

effort on the part of the Chancellor’s Office and

the EDD to consolidate State and Federal funds

from three sources–the Comprehensive Education

and Training Act (CETA), the California Worksite

Education and Training Act (CWETA), and the

Vocational Education Act (VEA)–to support pilot

education and training programs involving a high

level of coordination between colleges, private industries, and (in some instances) local government

bodies.

In November 1981, the project staff sent Requests for Proposals (RFPs) to all of the community colleges in California asking for concept papers

outlining innovative programs in emerging or expanding technologies or labor-intensive occupations that combine classroom instruction with

worksite training in order to: 1) upgrade basic

work skills, 2) provide entry-level training, or 3)

enhance or build on the skills of displaced workers.

The colleges were specifically requested to design

programs for occupations not included in their current curricula and to seek new solutions for longexisting problems. Specific objectives to be met

by each local program included the following:

to provide vocational training programs meeting specific local employers’ needs;

to involve local employers and other appropriate entities in project plannin g, curriculum design, and training implementation;

to provide effective job skills training to the

project participants;

to obtain continuing employment with career

advancement potential for project participants; and

to incorporate the resulting curriculum into

ongoing college vocation~ education programs,

Over 50 colleges responded to the RFP, and in

January 1982, four individual colleges and two college consortia were awarded contracts totalling

$800,000 (for all six programs). The top-ranked

proposal was a program submitted by Glendale

Community College (GCC) to train CAD/CAM

technicians. In February 1982, GCC was awarded

$84,271 to train 24 participants (12 in each of two
448 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

training cycles);* shortly thereafter, five other

schools or consortia of schools were awarded contracts to train participants in fields such as computer-aided drafting, computer-assisted machining, digital electronics and microprocessors, business machine and computer repair, and solar and

alcohol technology and wood products manufacturing.

The remainder of this study focuses on the CAD/

CAM technician program operated by Glendale

Community College. In the fall of 1982, a new

State initiative, titled “Investment in People, ” set

aside $3,400,000 to fund other college programs

of a nature similar to those supported by the Coordinated Funding Program. Glendale submitted an

Investment in People proposal containing a modified and expanded version of its original CAD/

CAM program and was awarded $55,885 to train

additional participants in various computer-aided

design applications.

Glendale CAD/CAM Operator Training Program.–The Glendale program is an attempt to

demonstrate the feasibility of coordinating a variety of funding sources (CETA, CWETA, and

VEA) as well as the efforts of a variety of participating organizations and agencies. The project is

a joint effort on behalf of Glendale Community

College, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Singer Librascope, Computervision, the City of Glendale, and

the Glendale Private Industry Council. The remainder of this introductory section is devoted to

brief descriptions of these participating organizations and the part each plays in the CAD/CAM

program. Section II describes the project activities

of each major player in greater detail.

Glendale Community College.–Glendale Community College (GCC), designated as the training

program operator, is fully accredited by the Western Association of Schools and Colleges as a 2-year

institution providing both general and specialized

education to youth and adults. Its four primary

objectives are to: 1) educate students to meet the

lower division requirements of a university or 4-

year college, 2) provide post-secondary vocational

education for students preparing for entry-level

positions and for employed students upgrading

their skills for job advancement or to meet new job

requirements, 3) post-secondary education for

“personal improvement” (i.e., coursework taken to

satisfy individual interests and which does not

lead to a degree or certificate), and 4) adult educa-

*Each training cycle consisted of 12 weeks of formal classrood

laboratory instruction, followed by 200 hours of worksite training at

the participating companies.

tion “below the lower division level, ” which includes coursework leading to the high school diploma, career and vocational classes, citizenship

classes, and classes serving special interest needs

of the community.

GCC was founded in 1927 and, until recently,

was under the jurisdiction of the Glendale School

Board, which was also responsible for the primary

and secondary-level education system in the district. In the fall of 1982, a new school board, solely responsible for the Glendale Community College

District, was created. This action is especially

significant in relation to the school’s regular vocational education programs and to special projects

like the CAD/CAM operators program in that the

president/superintendent of the new school board

has expressed a specific coremitment to vocational

education and is a member of the Glendale Private

Industry Council (see below). Approximately half

of the college’s 10,200 students (5,200 full-time;

5,000 part-time) are either enrolled in technical or

vocationally-oriented certificate or transfer programs* or take one or more vocational education

courses.

The CAD/CAM Operators’ Program was coordinated by the college’s director of special programs and was taught by the senior drafting instructor.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).–JPL was

established by the California Institute of Technology (Cal Tech) as a private, nonprofit research and

development laboratory.** Located on the outskirts of Glendale in La Canada, Calif., JPL employs approximately 4,600 people: approximately

2,400 are engineers and scientists; 2,000 are support personnel; and 200 are engaged in manufacturing prototype products (see following paragraph). When the laboratory was founded in 1945,

its major activity was to complete rocket research

and development for the U.S. Army. In 1959, it

became a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) research center. Today, although

its principal contract is still with NASA, JPL also

has research and development contracts with the

Department of Energy, the Department of Defense, the National Institutes of Health, some local

agencies, and some private industries.

*Certificate programs are primarily business or technical programs

designed for students preparing to enter the job market upon completion of the program. Tmnsfer programs are designed for students planning to continue their education at a 4-year institution.

**C~ Tech continue9 to man~ JPL’s contracts. According to a JpL

section manager, the difference between the research conducted at Cal

Tech’s main campus in nearby Pasadena and that conducted by JPL

is that JPL is product development-oriented whereas the research on

the campus is primarily academic in nature.
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 449

As a NASA contractor, the principal focus of the

laboratory’s activities is lunar and interplanetary

investigation—tracking and acquiring data from

satellites and probes in NASA’s deep space network. Currently operating at a funding level of just

over $350 million, JPL concentrates on research,

development, and design of products. Its manufacturing activity, therefore, is limited to the production of prototypes and is a proportionately small

part of the lab’s responsibilities. For this reason,

JPL has little computer-aided production equipment; it does, however, have approximately 500

computers (ranging from mainframes to micros)

which are primarily used for computer-aided design and other computer-aided engineering applications such as analysis and simulation of engineering data. *

According to JPL’s Design and Mechanical Support Section manager, JPL’s concentration on development, design, and “first article delivery”

means that the laboratory uses computers and

computer-aided systems primarily as analytical

tools rather than as production tools. The current

focus of the Design and Mechanical Support Section is to attempt to save money and other resources in the preliminary stages of manufacturing by infusing into the design process the ability

to do simultaneous analysis, material selection,

and selection of fabrication work in an attempt to

create a product design that could be implemented

without wasting material or having to reconfigure

tooling in the manufacturing process.

JPL’s Design and Mechanical Support Section

participated in the Coordinated Funding Project

partially because of its growing need for CAD/

CAM operators since 1980, when the section installed its first Computervision CAD/CAM system. According to the section manager, the introduction of computer-aided design into the section

enabled it to bid on and complete more work in less

time and also-because the design engineers’ time

is considered to be too valuable to do detail and

documentation work on their designs-created a

need for a new category of employee- ’’CAD/CAM

*“Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) ., includes those computer

systems designed to facilitate Computer Aided Design (CAD), Computer

Aided Manufacturing (CAM1, Computer Aided Business Systems

(CABS), the Interactive Computer Graphis (ICG), and all those other

systems that facilitate the solution of engineering problems. It plays

a key role in areas such as design, analysis, detailing, documentation,

N/C programing, tooling, fabrication, assembly, quality control, testing,

and all aspects of management of the data base relevant to the particular product unda consideration. ” Donald D. Glower and Lindon E. Saline (cd.), A Response to Advanm”ng Technolo@”es {Washington, D. C.:

American Society for Engineering Education, 1982), p. 7.

operators” who are skilled in drafting and in the

operation of computer-aided design systems. *

Approximately two-thirds of the participants in

the Coordinated Funding Project receive “work

site training” at JPL—hands-on laboratory work

on the Computervision terminals that both complements their classroom instruction at Glendale

Community College and assists JPL engineers in

the detailing and documentation of their designs.

JPL has hired five trainees from the first cycle of

the program and may hire some from the second

phase.

Singer Librascope.–The remaining third of the

original 12 Coordinated Funding Project participants received worksite training at Singer Librascope, a division of the Singer Co. engaged in the

production of military equipment.

Like JPL, Singer Librascope required trained

ComputerVision operators and looked on the Coordinated Funding Project as a means of acquiring

employees trained to company specification;

While all of the trainees received the same classroom instruction at GCC, their worksite training

at Singer Librascope and JPL differed. Those who

completed their laboratory training at Singer Librascope were trained to work on printed circuit

board (PCB) designs, while the JPL trainees

worked on mechanical designs.**

Computervision.–C0mputervision–for many

years the largest producer of turnkey CAD/CAM

systems—participated in the Coordinated Funding

Project by providing free training for the GCC

drafting instructor in its Los Angeles training center.*** The classroom instruction provided to the

trainees was an adaptation of four of Computervision’s customer training courses. Computervision also assisted by providing reduced-price training documentation.

Glendale Private Industry Council and the City

of Glendale.—The Glendale Private Industry

Council (PIC) was formed in 1979 under Title VII

of the Comprehensive Employment and Training

Act. Title VII, the Private Sector Initiative Program, was aimed at giving business and industry

*Previous to the installation of the timputervision terminals, the swtion contracted drafting work to independent drafters or drafting firms.

It is anticipated that the CAD systems and the new CAD/CAM operators will eventually replace the need for contract drafters.

**The students themselves were given a choice of industry site on

the basis of their interest in either mechanical or PCB design.

*** ComputerVision dso Supplied free training to two high school

teachers, who became CAD instructors in a high school training program developed at approximately the same time as the Coordinated

Funding Project’s CAD/CAM operator program.
450 c Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

a major role in designing and implementing employment and training programs tailored to local

private-sector needs.* Although the authority of

business and industry representatives on a number of PICS across the country has sometimes been

limited by the control of the local elected officials

(designated as CETA Prime Sponsors) over PIC

activities, the Glendale PIC has effected a viable

working relationship between local government,

education, and industry representatives.

In order to describe the role played by PIC in

the Coordinated Funding CAD/CAM Operator

Program, it is first necessary to provide a few

paragraphs of background material on PIC itself

and its relationship with its Prime Sponsor, the

City of Glendale. PIC’S board is primarily composed of business and industry representatives but

also has representation from local government and

community groups, including the Glendale Unified

School District, the Employment Development

Department, and the Department of Social Services. In 1981, PIC merged with the CETA Advisory Council (which was under the jurisdiction of

the City of Glendale, in its role as CETA Prime

Sponsor).

The merger occurred at a time when a number

of other PICS and Prime Sponsors in other localities were also consolidating councils; in some locations, the mergers were seen by one or the other

of the groups as “take-over bids” and were accompanied by vituperation on both sides. In Glendale

and in some other locations, the consolidation of

councils was seen as a reinforcement of an already

effective cooperative relationship. According to

the present PIC director, PIC and the city have

yet to disagree on matters of program or policy,

largely because there is general agreement that

PIC should act as the policymaking body while the

city acts as the administrative body.

Another factor that enhances PIC’S ability to

function in a coordinated manner is that it has

eliminated duplication of services by designating

specific types of training delivery to specific

groups in the Glendale area. Glendale Community College, for example, provides classroom instruction and skills training under contract to PIC;

another designated contractor is responsible for

work experience for youth, for example, and yet

another takes responsibility for in-school youth

*The successor to CETA, the Jobs Trainin g Partnership Act, retains

the private-industry councils created under CETA and expands their

responsibility and authority. In order to be certified under the new act—

which requires a service delivery area with population of 200,000 or

more—the Glendale PIC consolidated its council with the nearby Burbank PIC in 1983.

programs. PIC board members and staff believe

that these measures have helped it to become the

top-ranked council in terms of job placement in the

DOL region covering California, Nevada, and

Arizona.

PIC played two roles in the CAD/CAM Operators Program. Its formal role was to provide administrative services for the program, including

contract compliance, recordkeeping, participant

tracking and reporting, operational monitoring,

and technical assistance. These services were formally subcontracted by Glendale Community College to the City of Glendale, which, as the administrative arm of the consolidated council, performs

similar services for PIC-operated programs.

The other role played by PIC was informal but

crucial to every aspect of the program from conception to delivery. The Glendale PIC defines its

responsibilities in a broader context than the actual operation of training programs for economically disadvantaged participants. According to

both the PIC director and the chairman, PIC must

have a sense of–and be active in–the community as a whole in order to be effective in its formal

function of delivering private-sector training programs for the community’s disadvantaged residents. The board and staff members, therefore,

perceive their function to be that of facilitators,

or brokers, who can act to bring together representatives from business, education, and government to create the kind of working partnership

they believe is the intent of CETA, Title VII, and

its successor, the Job Training Partnership Act.

It was in its role as a facilitator that PIC had

its greatest impact on the CAD/CAM Operator

Training Program. The proposal that won the

Coordinated Funding Project contract for Glendale Community College was conceived by the PIC

director and was an adaptation of a computeraided design program for high school students proposed by the PIC chairman, who is also the manager of JPL’s Design and Mechanical Support Section and a member of the* school program, which

● Because the Glendale Coordinated Funding Project was not a

PIC-sponsored program, the question of conflict-of-interest did not arise

in relation to JPL’s role. Conflict of interest is, however, a debated issue

in the new Jobs Training Partnership Act. According to a report released by the National Governors’ Association, “at least 15 states place

total bans on designated officials from conducting business either with

the State, or local municipalities, or other governmental entities of which

they are members. ” Some private-industry council members in some

localities are, therefore prohibited from allowing PIC training programs

to be operated in or for their places of business. A number of private

industry councils, on the other hand, operate on the principle that PIC

board members can have the most impact by opening up their own

businesses or industries to PIC programs, thereby providing training

and employment opportunities to eligible participants and, at the same

time, illustrating by example that such programs can be effective for
—

was designed to familiarize high school students

with CAD/CAM technology and to encourage

them to continue their education in computeraided technologies.

The college program, on the other hand, was conceptualized as a means of serving the participating

students and companies alike by training the students to fill immediate employment needs at JPL

and Singer. Both programs were designed to serve

their respective educational institutions by upgrading teachers, introducing new technological

curricula, and providing courses that would eventually be incorporated into the ongoing curricula

of both the college and the high school.

The CAD/CAM program, then, resulted from

the synergistic relationship between PIC, the college, and industries like the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It derives also from the leadership of individuals like the JPL section manager, whose activities in other arenas (as PIC chair and as School

Board member) provided him with both the broadbased perspective and the position to effect the

coordination called for in the State’s Coordinated

Funding Proposal.

CAD/CAM Operator Training Program

Goals and Objectives.–Overall goals of the

CAD/CAM Operators’ Program are: 1) to develop

a training program in CAD/CAM which could be

incorporated into the community college system

in Glendale, and which could be replicated at other

community colleges, and 2) to train 24 participants

to be CAD/CAM operators. Apart from those overall goals (which are primarily those of the college),

PIC, JPL, and Singer Librascope each had additional objectives for their project participation.

Private Industry Council representatives viewed

the Coordinated Funding Project as an opportunity to strengthen the bond between the college and

local industries by demonstrating that the two entities could work together in a project that could

employers, In the NGA report cited above—which specifically addresses

the question of conflict-of-interest in regard to the new Job Training

Partnership Act–the Georgia Employment and Training Council

specifically recommends that “Federal regulations concerning conflictsof-interest which are presently being drafted exempt PIC members from

prohibitions against conducting business in their own or any other service delivery area where: 1 ) such member notifies in writing his potential conflict of interest to the council or administrative entity; 2) such

member refrains from voting or in any way participating in the decision to award contracts; and 3) the council or administrative entity

makes as a part of its record the reasons for awarding the contract to

one of its PIC members and why the award is in the public’s best interest. “ “Implementing the Job Training Partnership Act. Technical Brief:

Conflict of Inter@ t,” National Governors’ Association, December 1982,

Issue paper pre9ented for response.

Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries

.— ——

● 451

.—

benefit each while also helping the community by

training and employing local residents. In particular, PIC hoped to showcase the college as a resource for local industries which could, by assuming industrial training responsibilities, help the

companies save on training expenses. PIC also saw

its participation in the project as a way to partake

in an effort to build the community’s capacity to

engage in high-technology training which—in the

opinion of key staff and board members—may not

be appropriate for the majority of CETA-eligible

residents without the necessary background

skilis. * By helping the community to establish a

high-tech tr aining capacity, PIC hoped to establish

a training resource which could eventually be used

by economically disadvantaged participants whom

PIC would first provide with prerequisite skills

such as drafting.

Although Jet Propulsion Laboratory and Singer

Librascope had a major objective in common—

that of obtainhg employees specifically trained to

their work requirements—their secondary objectives differed. One basic difference was that Singer

required students trained as detailers-i.e., CAD/

CAM operators who do detail work on designs

created by others—whereas JPL wanted trainees

who would do some basic design work and eventually become full-fledged designers.

Consequently, JPL informed all of the students

who completed their worksite training at the laboratory that those who would be hired would be

expected to continue their education (at company

expense) at a 4-year college. A further objective

held by JPL was to build the college’s capabilities

so that the lab could draw on it as a training resource in the future. Computervision’s object in

participating in the project was to support its customers–JPL and Singer Librascope–by assisting

in the instruction of their future employees, and

to assist the college by helping it to develop the

capability to create an ongoing computer-aided design course utilizing Computervision equipment.

Planning and Development.—The State-level

planning for the Coordinated Funding Project and

much of the local-level planning for the Glendale

program have been outlined in section I of this

study. This section will, therefore, discuss the program development efforts that took place after the

selection of Glendale as a contract recipient.

*Because the CETA funds used in the Coordinated Funding Project

were discretionary linkages funds earmarked for project administrative

expenses, the project operators were not bound to meet CETA selection criteria, although they were urged to include as many CETA-eligible participants as possible.
452 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the

——. —.—

Workp/ace —. ——

Previous to the writing of the proposal, both

JPL and Singer Librascope had made commitments to participate in the program. Once the proposal was accepted, PIC contacted Computervision and secured its commitment to provide training for the Glendale instructor. The school’s engineering drafting instructor, who also works parttime at JPL as a senior engineer, was chosen as

the CAD/CAM program instructor and was given

the responsibility of designing the curriculum.

To prepare for his curriculum-writing and instructional duties, the instructor attended a summer-long upgrading program. He began his training by completing a week-long Computervision

self-study course at JPL, followed by a week of onthe-job training in JPL’s CAD/CAM operations.

During the following 9 weeks, he attended 100

hours of training at Computervision’s Los Angeles

training center, completing customer courses in

mechanical design and electromechanical design.

The week-long courses at Computervision were

supplemented by on-the-job training at both Singer Librascope and JPL. At the completion of his

training, the instructor designed the classroom

training curriculum for the program, aided by a~-

vice from JPL and Singer employees.

Because the students would be receiving classroom instruction at the college and laboratory

training at one of the participating firms, much of

the program development effort included setting

up formal mechanisms for coordinating between

JPL, Singer Librascope, PIC, and the school. That

coordination involved logistics planning. Discussions between the college and the two companies

resulted in a plan whereby students would attend

3-hour lectures at the college two mornings a week

and laboratory training two late afternoons or

evenings a week (to avoid students competing with

employees for workstations).

Administrative and Instructional Staff. -As the

primary program operator, Glendale Community

College had fiscal responsibility for the project. It

was also responsible for delivering classroom and

laboratory training and for appointing a program

counselor to act as liaison between the students,

the college, and the participating companies. The

college’s director of special projects for vocational

education served as the overall program administrator. Administrative services were subcontracted to the City of Glendale/Private Industry

Council, while the college retained the activities

of recruitment, screening and selection, counseling, and placement. The college’s engineering

drafting instructor was responsible for delivering

the classroom instruction, overseeing the laboratory instruction at JPL, and coordinating with the

two companies.

The instructor, a past graduate of Glendale

Community College, has a bachelor’s degree in industrial design from California State University

at Los Angeles, a master’s degree in industrial

design from California State University at San

Jose, and a vocational education teaching credential from the University of California at Berkeley.

His previous industrial experience includes work

at Columbia Broadcasting Corp. as a designer, at

General Electric’s Nuclear Engineering Division

as a packaging engineer, and at 113M as a senior

design engineer.

Facilities and Equipment.—Classroom instruction was delivered at Glendale Community College, which has a fully equipped traditional drafting classroom, but no computer-aided design stations. Eight of the initial class of 12 students attended the laboratory portion of their training at

JPL, which has four Computervision terminals

dedicated to training p~oses. The remaining students had their laboratory instruction at Singer

Librascope, which has four Computervision terminals in its engineering department for use by program trainees and Singer employees alike.

Program Funding.–Glendale Community College received $84,271 from the Coordinated Funding Project ($3,243 from CETA; $19,533 from

CWETA; and $61,495 from VEA). The CETA

funds and approximately half of the CWETA

funds were subcontracted to the City of Glendale

to cover administrative services, and the remainder of the CWETA funds paid for a portion of the

instructor’s retraining (4 weeks of on-the-job training at JPL and 4 weeks at Singer Librascope). The

VEA funds were devoted primarily to covering the

direct costs of the training for the 24 participants.

In addition to the State funding, the participating

firms provided the following in-kind contributions:

100 hours of computer-aided design training for

the Glendale instructor (Computervision) and

equipment-use-and-maintenance costs for the
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 453

CAD/CAM terminals valued at $97,200 (JPL and

Singer Librascope), Glendale Community College

contributed space and utilities totaling $3,800.

Recruitment and Selection/Participant Profile.

—In May 1982, the college sent flyers announcing

the CAD/CAM program to 2- and 4-year colleges

and Employment Development Department in the

Los Angeles County area. Applicants were required to be U.S. citizens; be 18 years old or over;

have a high school diploma or general equivalency

diploma; be able to pass a security clearance; and

have completed the following college-level courses:

c one semester of basic mechanical drafting;

● one semester of advanced mechanical drafting;

● one semester of descriptive geometry; and

● or equivalent work experience.

Recommended but not required were the following:

● one semester of electronic drafting;

● one semester of machine design;

● one semester of basic electronics or machine

shop;

● prior work experience in the above areas; and

● or equivalent work experience.

After making formal application for the program

at the Glendale CETA office, the candidates took

a written examination at the college on June 12.

The applications contained questionnaires requesting information on the applicant’s long- and shortterm goals, attitude, and motivation. The formal

examination contained practical drafting problems

requiring a knowledge of tolerance, dimensioning,

scaling, clearances, interferences, and electrical

schematics. From the initial group of over 50 candidates, the college representatives selected 18 on

the basis of both test scores and indications of

practicality, willingness to do detailed work for

long stretches of time, and motivation shown on

the application questionnaires. Once the college

made the initial selection, representatives from

JPL and Singer interviewed the students and

made the final selection.

The majority of the 12 students selected as program participants for the first session, which began September 13, had previous machine shop or

drafting experience. Over half had 2-year drafting

certificates, and five of those students also had 2-

year certificates in electronics or machining. The

average age of the group was 23. Two participants

were female; one was Hispanic; four had incomes

below the poverty level; one was a displaced homemaker; and four were veterans.

Similar selection and recruitment procedures

were followed for the second group of 12 participants, who began the coursework in February

1983. The second group was approximately 50 percent female and included four Hispanics and three

Orientals.

Classroom Instruction and Laboratory Training.—The students received 12 weeks of formal instruction (6 hours a week of classroom instruction

and 6 hours of Computervision CADDS 3 terminal

training per week). Because no terminals were

available in the college classroom, the classroom

instruction was strictly devoted to theory, which

was then applied in practice in the company laboratories. The GCC instructor was responsible for

classroom instruction and for monitoring the laboratory sessions at both JPL and Singer Librascope. instructional materials consisted of four

Computervision training documents–CADDS 3

Pocket Reference, CADDS 3 Mechanical Basic

Guide, CADDS 3 Mechanical Design Workbook,

and the CADDS 3 Printed Circuit/Electrical Schematic Basic Guide*—and Computervision’s selfstudy audio/print learning package, “Introduction

to CADDS 3 Operation, ” which teaches the basic

concepts and commands needed to use CADDS 3

applications software.

Curriculum.–The curriculum was designed to

include the introductory material covered in the

self-study package plus three Computervision

CADDS 3 customer courses: 1) Basic Mechanical

Design, 2) Advanced Mechanical Design, and 3)

Basic Printed Circuit/Electrical Schematic Design.

The first week of class was devoted to an overview

of CAD/CAM technology, during which the instructor lectured on CAD/CAM system hardware

and software, turnkey CAD/CAM systems, computer-generated visualizations, computer-aided

design and computer-aided manufacturing processes and applications, and the integration of

CAD/CAM into industrial processes.

During the second week, students were introduced to the basic techniques for using CADDS

3 software, concentrating on terminology, log on/

off procedures for entering and leaving the system,

and basic command language. The lecture portions

of the second week of study covered the format

of command language syntax-made up of verb +

noun + modifier strings which the operator uses

to execute a command by inputting a function

(verb), such as “insert,” plus a geometric entity

(noun), like “line,” plus a modifier which describes

the geometry, such as “parallel” or “perpendicular.”

*CADDS is ComputerVision’s “Computer-Aided Drafting and Design

System. Students were required to purchase the pocket reference and

the mechanical design workbook; the school supplied them with the two

basic guides. (Computervision, which normally sells the basic guides

for $75 each, provided them to the college for $3o each, )
454 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

The students also learned how to use the system’s ofie documentation feature, which aids the

operator by prompting him or her with information on, for example, what “nouns” (line, circle, arc,

fillet) go with specific “verbs” (insert, delete, or

combine, for instance) and what modifiers can be

used with particular verb/noun combinations. During the laboratory sessions, the students completed portions of the Computervision audio cassette/workbook course under the instructor’s supervision.

Following the basic operations segment, the students spent 2 weeks (24 hours) learning to use the

system for basic mechanical design. This segment

included the fundamentals of part creation (i.e.,

how to use the system to create lines, circles, arcs,

and fillets) and part filing (how to file a drawing

of a part in the system); how to erase, modify, and

manipulate elements; and basic projections (how

to reproduce objects on planes or curved surfaces

by projecting their points to create 3-D objects).

During the following 2 weeks, the students

learned how to insert dimensions in mechanical

drawings (including linear, angular, radial, and

diameter dimensions, dual dimensions, and extension lines and arrows); how to use construction

aids, such as grids and layers; how to size and scale

part-drawings; “zooming” (focusing in on a small

section of the drawing on the screen or widening

the focus to include the full drawing); and how to

insert textual notes and symbols to accompany

their drawings. The laboratory work during this

segment consisted of working through specified

sections of the CADDS 3 Mechm”cal Design

Workbook and completing individual projects involving the creation of 2-D and 3-D parts.

The next 3 weeks (weeks 7-9 of the course) were

devoted to printed circuit/electrical schematic (PC/

ES) applications. The first lecture in this segment

covered the differences between mechanical and

PC/ES applications and operations. The students

then learned to create electronic symbols (called

“nodal information” in Computervision terminology) and to digitize* and annotate electrical schematics, which the computer then converts into a

“net list, ” i.e., a list of all the start- and end-points

for specific wire paths on the board. By the eighth

week, the students were creating PC component

— ——

*’Digitizers’ are instrumented surfaces on which the location of a

point, selected with an associated cursor unit, is automatically converted

into digital, x-and-y coordinate data suitable for tranqnission to a computer (Turnkey CAD/CAM Computer Graphics, A Survey and Buyer’s

Guide, pp. 3-22). In the PC/ES operation described above, “digitizing”

means to use a stylus to locate points which will eventually be connected

by wires on the finished circuit board.

diagrams, digitizing simple PC boards, and then

using the system to merge the printed circuit

boards and to automatically route the result.*

They then learned to edit their PC boards** and

to record the parts and computer files (i.e., to store

both the PCB drawing and the schematic and net

list information in the computer). As in the mechanical segment, the students were required to

complete individual projects using the terminals

in the laboratories.

During the next 2 weeks, the students worked

on specific electro-mechanical design problems

dealing with the design and packaging of printed

circuit boards. The last week of the course was

devoted to review and to the final examination.

Instructional Methods. -When he developed the

curriculum, the instructor was faced with a problem intrinsic to the structure of the program: how

to modify the ComputerVision courses, which were

designed for students with 4-hour-a-day access to

terminals, to be taught in the Glendale format (6

hours a week of classroom instruction; 6 hours a

week of laboratory practice). A number of his

teaching methods were therefore dictated by the

peculiarities of the situation. A portion of the

classroom time was devoted to lecture on, and

class discussion of, the theory behind the laboratory work to be done in the following lab session.

Because of the lack of equipment, the instructor

used the chalkboard to demonstrate the basic principles, and the students completed pen-and-paper

exercises simulating the terminal exercises they

would perform in the laboratories.

The remainder of the classroom time was spent

in group discussions of individual problems encountered in the laboratories. (Although a number

of the students were reticent about discussing

those problems in a group situation, all were required to do so in order to provide them with experience in communicating problems to co-workers

and attempting to solve them in a group situation.)

The instructor’s object in this was to simulate the

industrial environment to the greatest extent pos-

● The “merge” Prmess tills the system that w of the components

that exist on the board must be hooked up, baaed on the net list, so

that the information on the net list is actually merged into the printed

circuit board design. In the “routing” process, the system automatically

indicabs to the operator the lines that physically connect the digitized

points.

**The ~t~ process is necessary because the syshm CSnnOt ~ways

route every wire on every board. For example, if the system cannot get

from point A to point B without intersecting another point and so

grounding-out the wires, the human operator must drill a hole in the

board, run the wire along the bottom side, and drill back up to the component side so that he can continue to run the wire on an unobstructed

path.
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 455

sible. Students were expected to produce professional-level work; were expected to meet strict

deadlines for their twice-weekly lab work and for

the projects required at the end of each section;

and were trained to solve the sort of practical problems they would face on the job.

Students worked two-to-a-terminal in the laboratory sessions, using the “partner system” that

Computervision trainers use in their customer

classes. Each student would work on the terminal

for approximately 15 minutes at a time, while his

or her partner would monitor the operation to

make sure it was being done correctly and would

provide assistance when necessary. This system,

according to Computervision, allows each partner

to both observe and perform specific operations

and therefore reinforces the learning process. Because JPL had four terminals located in a dedicated training lab and because the laboratory operates on a flexible schedule, the students who did

their laboratory work at JPL had 4 to 6 extra

hours a week of terminal time. According to the

instructor, the students were all so highly motivated that they had to be forcibly ejected from the

laboratory at 11:00 p.m.

In addition to the classroom and laboratory

work, the instructor arranged for two field trips—

one to the Computervision Training Center in Los

Angeles, and one to Weber Aicraft to observe the

IBM/CADAM system in a production environment.

Examinations and College Credit.–Students

were given an examination at the end of each major course segment (basic operations, mechanical

application, and electrical applications) and took

a 3-part final examin ation covering mechanical design, electrical design, and basic drawing. All but

one of the students passed the final test and received three units of college credit for the course. *

Student Evaluations.—In written evaluations

completed at the end of the classroom/lab portion

of the program, the trainees gave both the instructor and the course high marks. Most, however,

stated that the course would be improved by more

terminal time and more time spent on printed circuit board design. (See “Results” section for more

recent evaluations of the course by session I trainees now working at JPL and Singer Librascope.)

Worksite Training.–Once they completed the

classroom/laboratory portion of the program, the

*The one student who did not pass the final exam was the only student who carried a full-time job while participating in the program. The

combination of full-time work and program participation proved to be

more than he could accommodate.

11 remaining students began worksite training at

JPL and Singer Librascope. This portion of the

training consisted of 200 hours of work, which in

the case of the eight trainees, was divided into 10,

20-hour weeks. Because Singer Librascope was

anxious to place its trainees on the permanent payroll as soon as possible, the 200 hours of training

for the three Singer participants was condensed

into 7 weeks. Trainees in both locations worked on

actual production designs and were paid salaries

of $5 per hour by the firms. (Customers were informed that the design or detail work was being

performed by student trainees, and the savings–

in terms of lower-than-average salaries paid during the training period—were passed on to the customers in form of decreased design-room costs. )

The Singer Librascope trainees spent the worksite training portion of the program primarily doing detailer work on printed circuit board (PCB)

designs. This included digitizing PCB drawings to

input the design into the computer, editing existing designs, creating detailed drawings from an

existing database, and creating photo tools. The

students who completed their worksite training at

JPL were given some design responsibilities as

well as detail work. Their specific task was to work

on mechanical designs for support equipment and

peripheral structures, such as inspection platforms, for the Galileo spacecraft.

Given a basic design created by a JPL engineer,

it was the trainees’ job to complete the design,

making sure that it met both the design and manufacturing standards (part tolerance and material selection, for example) specified by the design

engineer. In many instances, completing the engineer’s design required the trainee to design a

part or structure forming a portion of the total design. The design work done by the trainees, closely monitored during the worksite training period,

is a significant aspect of the duties of those trainees who became permanent employees,

Related Services: Counseling, Placement, and

Follow-up.–Counseling, placement, and follow-up

services were formally assigned to the college. The

college’s special projects department has a fulltime counseling staff, one of whom was assigned

part-time to the Coordinated Funding participants. In effect, however, most counseling was informal and was provided by the instructor and the

Singer and JPublic Law employees who oversaw

the students at the laboratory sites. Although

placement services were officially the responsibility of the college, PIC representatives aided GCC

in placing those program graduates who were not
456 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Emp/oymentJ Education, and the Workp/ace

hired by either of the participating firms. Followup procedures, planned for 30-, 60-, and 90-day intervals after program completion, were conducted

by the college.

Results

Placement.—Seven of the 11 trainees who completed both the classroom instruction and worksite

training portions of the program were hired by

either JPL or Singer Librascope. JPL’s stated intention at the beginning of the program was to

train eight participants in its lab and to hire the

four who were best qualified. The laboratory exceeded its original intention by hiring five trainees

at the completion of the worksite training in February 1983. The new JPL CAD/CAM operators received entry-level salaries of $6 to $7.50 per hour.

Two of the JPL trainees were placed in other firms

in design and drafting jobs which do not, however,

involve CAD/CAM operation.

Singer Librascope had originally intended to hire

all three of the students who trained at the firm.

One of them, however, failed to pass the security

clearance required for all Singer Librascope employees. That trainee has since been hired by Glendale Community College in a nontraining-related

capacity. The other two were hired by Singer in

January 1983, at starting salaries of $6.25 to $7.25

an hour.

Singer hopes to hire four trainees from the second session of the program, which at this writing

has not yet entered the worksite training stage.

Whether or not JPL will be able to hire any of the

second-session trainees will depend on the laboratory’s need and funding situation at the end of the

summer.

The Investment in People Project.–One of the

results of the CAD/CAM operator program was

achieved well before the first group of participants

completed their classroom instruction. In October

1982, the State Community College Chancellor’s

Office and the EDD announced that additional

funds for innovative college programs would be

available under the Governor’s Investment in People Initiative. Glendale Community College, again

with the help of PIC and the City of Glendale, submitted a proposal to expand the CAD/CAM operators’ program to adapt it to a wider range of applications (including architectural, piping, and

structural design); to recruit additional applicants

and involve more local industry; and to provide

further training for instructors from GCC to help

the college expand its already developed CAD curriculum.

In December 1982, the college was awarded Investment in People funding totaling $55,885 to

provide 10 weeks of combined classroom instruction at GCC and onsite laboratory work at the

Electro Optic Systems Division of Xerox Corp.

and Jacobs Engineering (an architectural and civil

engineering firm).

Unlike the Coordinated Funding Project participants, 32 of the 40 Investment in People participants were company employees requiring upgrade

training in computer-aided design. Because the

Xerox Electro Optical Systems employees were to

be trained for aerospace applications, a combined

class serving the second-session Coordinated

Funding participants and the Xerox Investment

in People participants was planned for the winterspring semester of 1983. The Jacobs employees,

who were to be trained in architectural applications, attended a separate course, taught by an employee of Jacobs certified by Glendale College. All

of the industry employees received laboratory

training at their respective companies. The eight

trainees who were not company employees joined

the Coordinated Funding participants at Singer

and JPL.

Benefits.–Aside from the obvious benefits to

the trainees, the CAD/CAM Operator Training

Program produced beneficial results for the sponsoring companies, agencies, and institutions. Both

employers got CAD/CAM operators trained in

their specific applications and operations for a

fraction of the cost involved in company-operated

training programs. Singer Librascope, which specifically seeks young, energetic drafters to be

trained as detailers in computer-aided PCB applications, obtained young CAD operators whose laboratory training was closely monitored by company employees—thus providing the assurance

that they were trained in a manner acceptable to

the firm. As added benefits, Singer representatives

also point to their participation in the selection of

the trainees and the opportunity to observe them

over an extended period of time.

JPL representatives look on the training program as a first step in reducing the laboratory’s

dependence on the contract drafting houses that

traditionally performed the manual drafting function now being replaced by CAD/CAM. According

to the manager of the Design and Mechanical Support Section, the section has been able to accommodate double its previous workload since the introduction of the CAD systems in 1981 and can

accomplish much of the work done by the contract

drafters with a smaller number of permanently employed CAD/CAM operators. Furthermore, since
Appendix A—Sefected Case Studies: Summaries . 457

——— .

the systems themselves are extremely accurate

tools, JPL can increase productivity and lower its

price structure by hiring trained CAD/CAM operators at entry-level salaries and passing the savings along to its customers.

An added benefit from JPL’s point of view is the

future potential of the trainees. All of those who

were hired by JPL accepted their positions with

the understanding that they will continue their education by pursuing 4-year engineering degrees

and eventually become part of the engineering design staff in the section. In this way, JPL hopes

to achieve a number of long-term results: to prevent the CAD/CAM operators from becoming static; to “home grow” new engineers who will have

a working knowledge of CAD/CAM operations and

JPL requirements; and to keep a constant flow of

new CAD/CAM operators coming into the laboratory by replacing the older operators who have

moved up to engineering design positions.

Glendale Community College, by obtaining the

Coordinated Funding and Investment in People

grants, now has increased credibility at the State

level, which may, in turn, help the school to obtain additional funding for further innovative programs. Of equal importance is the CAD/CAM experience gained by the drafting instructor during

his summer-long upgrading program, which was

reinforced by his delivery of the academic-year program. In addition, the college got the opportunity to integrate computer-aided design into its regular drafting curriculum—an opportunity that

would have been greatly delayed had GCC been

forced to wait until it could obtain its own equipment.

Benefits to the Private Industry Council and

Computervision were less tangible, but were, nevertheless, significant. By acting as the broker

bringing the major players together and developing the operating systems that helped the program

to succeed, PIC demonstrated that it could fill the

needs of the community at large while, at the same

time, setting the stage for a PIC-funded program

preparing disadvantaged residents to become

drafters who could then take advantage of training programs concentrating on CAD/CAM skills.

The program also aided the Private Industry

Council by reinforcing the PIC-built bridges between the college and local industries and by demonstrating the PIC philosophy in action, i.e., that

industrial commitment and academic training resources can be combined to benefit industries,

schools, and potential employees. ComputerVision,

by participating in a program sponsored by JPL

and Singer, demonstrated its willingness to support its customers in an innovative endeavor while

also helping to provide those customers with

trained Computervision operators.

Problems/Solutions.–The necessity of condensing the Computervision courses to fit the time

frame of the college semester and the need to separate the classroom and laboratory segments presented ongoing problems. Although the Glendale

students did have 12 weeks to complete four 1-

week Computervision courses, students who attend courses at one of Computervision’s customer

training centers engage in intensive 8-hour-a-day

classroom and laboratory work. In the case of the

mechanical design and printed circuit courses, the

Glendale students received almost as much terminal time as a regular Computervision customer;

but in the case of the introduction to CADDS 3

operation course, the coverage was reduced from

approximately 40 hours to 10.

It should ako be noted that Computervision recommends that its customers’ employees have from

60 hours of terminal time (for detailers) to 120

hours (for designers) after they take the basic

mechanical design course to thoroughly familiarize

them with the system before they proceed to advanced mechanical design. This, of course, was impossible for the Glendale students, who, because

of time constraints imposed by the 12-week semester, had to proceed directly from the basic to the

advanced course.

While the first group of students did not feel

that the classroom/laboratory schedule was inconvenient, the students who are attending the second cycle of the course do have a problem in that

regard. Those who do their laboratory work at Singer Librascope must attend labs from 11:00 p.m.

to 2:00 a.m. because the systems are in constant

use for production purposes during the first two

shifts. This presents obvious difficulties for the

second-cycle students but alleviates the problem

noted by Singer employees during the first cycle

of the program, when regular employees were occasionally forced to work overtime in order to

make up for the periods during which the terminals were used for training purposes, A similar

problem was mentioned by some JPL employees,

who had been accustomed to use the terminals

“dedicated” to training for production design

work.

A final problem related to the course structure

is that the instructor occasionally had difficulty

filling the mandatory 6 hours a week of lecture

time with constructive material. While the chalk-
458 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workp/ace

——-—

board demonstrations of terminal operations and

the pen-and-paper exercises were helpful to some

extent, the instructor now feels that 4 hours a

week of lecture and 8 hours of terminal time would

be more appropriate for a course of this type.

While the instructor found ways to address

some of the above-mentioned problems in the second cycle of the program, others were less amenable to immediate solution. The 10 hours originally devoted to the basic operations segment has

been expanded to 20 hours. To deal with the problem of excessive classroom time, the instructor has

assigned a term project for the second cycle of

trainees.

As part of the project, students will write papers

dealing with the advantages and disadvantages of

various CAD/CAM systems for specific types of

design work, such as mechanical, printed circuit

board, architectural and piping. Each student is

assigned an in-depth research project on a specific

system for a specific type of application, and the

instructor has arranged for more field trips to enable the students to see different systems in operation. At the end of the course, the students will

make class presentations on the results of their research, so that the entire class will have some familiarity with a wide variety of systems and applications. Because both cycles of the course were

firmly locked in to the college’s schedule by the

time the difficulties associated with the classroond

laboratory ratio became apparent, it was not possible to make the adjustment to the 4-hour lecture/8-

hour lab format which the instructor believes

would be the best long-term solution to this problem.

Lack of adequate periods of time for terminal

practice between the basic and advanced mechanical design segments is a problem which as yet has

no solution in a course which is structured to fit

into an academic semester. Even if the college had

a well-equipped laboratory dedicated to training,

it is unlikely that the students could have logged

in 60 to 120 hours of terminal time to fully acquaint themselves with the system before proceeding from the basic to the advanced segments of

the course. It should be noted, however, that the

students did have the opportunity to work on the

terminals for at least 20 hours a week during the

worksite training portion of the program. Therefore, although they may not have been able to

make use of the terminals at the optimum period

in the learning process, they did have up to 200

hours of experience on the terminals in addition

to the time spent in the laboratory sections of the

formal course.

A final problem, one noted by Singer representatives and by the Glendale instructor himself, is

that—while the summer-long upgrading course

provided the instructor with a grounding in the

Computervision courses he adapted for his own

course and a familiarity with the work of the Singer and JPL departments the students would be

working in—his training was “barely adequate”

to the task of training the students in advanced

techniques. The major difficulty here was not with

the abilities of the instructor, who had years of experience as an industrial designer and a drafting

teacher and is familiar with the operation of

another CAD/CAM system. However, while he

was evaluated by both Singer and JPL representatives to be fully competent in his field and

an excellent teacher, he did not have enough “system time” on ComputerVision terminals to become

thoroughly familiar with all of the operations required for both mechanical and PCB design.

This problem has decreased as the instructor has

had more opportunity to work on the system himself and to observe the types of difficulties his students run into on the terminals, and it can reasonably be expected to be overcome entirely with time

and experience. Because JPL and Singer designers

were always on hand to aid the students with difficult problems, the students did not suffer because of the instructor’s lack of extensive production experience on the system.

Evaluation of Present and Future Capacity

In spite of the problems noted in the previous

sections, the CAD/CAM operator training program can be rated as an overall success. The two

employers have gained trained employees who fill

what they both term as a “void” in their occupational structure, and both Singer and JPL pronounce themselves to be very pleased with the program graduates they have hired. The majority of

the other graduates have obtained jobs; the college has gained experience in teaching a CAD/

CAM course and hopes to be able to integrate it

into its regular curriculum; and the Private Industry Council has strengthened its position as a

“broker” between industry, academia, and those

in need of training and jobs.

Many of the problems cited, are in fact, are normal “startup” difficulties associated with the initial implementation of demonstration programs

with limited development time-frames. The other

problems—specifically those involved in coordinating the resources and schedules of the industries,
Appendix A —Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 459

. — .—

on the one hand, and the college, on the other—

are currently being addressed by PIC and the college and require both long-range planning and flexible short-term adjustments to achieve a workable

solution (see below).

Perhaps more important than the program’s

success in meeting its stated goals, however, is its

value in demonstrating that industries and educational institutions can work together to meet their

individual needs and the needs of the community

with mutually satisfactory results. The present

and future potential for the cooperative endeavor

in high-technology training initiated by the college

CAD/CAM program and its sister high school program, along with student and employer evaluations of the first cycle of the college program, are

discussed in the following paragraphs.

Employer Evaluations.–Many of the employers’ reactions to the program and to the students

have been touched on in previous sections of this

study. This section summarizes and draws together the overall response of the two employers who

participated as major sponsors of the program.

Singer Librascope.–Singer representatives

interviewed-the manager of engineering and pkmning, the supervisor of the computer-aided design

department who oversaw the laboratory portion

of the formal course and the worksite trainin g, and

a PCB designer who worked closely with the students during the worksite training-all believe

that the trainees did “a great job” and are fully

satisfied with the work and motivation of the two

trainees who were eventually hired. Even though

the third trainee could not be hired for security

reasons, the Singer employees said that he, too,

did “very good work” and that they would have

hired him had he been able to pass the security

clearance.

The supervisor of computer-aided design was extremely direct in both his praise and his criticism

of various aspects of the program. He felt that the

problem created for Singer in the case of the trainee who was unable to get a security clearance could

have been avoided if more time and effort had gone

into the initial screening process. The classroom

training, in his opinion, was “adequate” but could

have been “more adequate” if the Glendale instructor had received a longer training course himself. His final criticism of the program was that,

while the trainees got a good “basic taste” of

CADDS 3 techniques, the instruction would have

served Singer’s purposes better had it been “more

focused” on printed circuit board design.

On the other hand, he recognized the instructor’s

problem of having students who would eventually be working in two different applications (mechanical and PCB) in the same class and believes

that some grounding in mechanical design techniques is necessary for PCB detailers.

Overcoming all of his criticism of the program,

however, was the fact that the two trainees who

were hired were, first of all, precisely the type of

employees he was seeking (young, intelligent, and

highly motivated) and, secondly, were tailortrained to meet Singer’s specifications. The program was especially valuable from Singer’s point

of view in that it trained students who had drafting experience but who did not have previous computer-aided design experience; they therefore did

not have to “unlearn improper or unprofessional

techniques” or techniques specific to another industry or another CAD/CAM system. Six of the

trainees in the second cycle of the program are now

receiving laboratory trainin g at Singer Librascope,

and the CAD supervisor hopes to hire four of

them.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory .–Representatives

interviewed included the manager of the design

and mechanical support section and the technical

group supervisor for computer-aided design. Because the CAD/CAM operator training program

was conceived and fostered by PIC (which is

chaired by the JPL section manager), JPL’s evaluation may be partially perceived as a parent’s

report of his child’s progress, On the other hand,

the section manager, being very much a businessman as well as a scientist, is committed to seeing

a return on his investment in the trainees, and to

hiring employees whose work meets the standards

of precision required in the aerospace industry.

Another factor to be considered in JPL’s evaluation is its philosophy of community participation

and its approach to employee training. The Jet

Propulsion Laboratory is the largest employer in

the Glendale area, and its managerial employees

have implemented their sense of commitment to

the community by serving on the board of education, educational task forces, and organizations

like the Private Industry Council.

JPL’s participation in the CAD/CAM training

program, therefore, was motivated not only by its

need for trained operators but by its desire to increase the college’s focus on high-technology training so that the school could better serve the needs

of both the industrial community and the residents

of Glendale. Integral to this approach is the no25-452 ? - 84 - 31 : or, 3
460 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

tion that industry should communicate its perspective to educational institutions and work with

them to address educational needs.*

Aside from attempting to strengthen industryeducation linkages in the community at large, the

design and mechanical support section manager

has institutionalized upgrade training for all of the

employees in his section. Forty hours a year of upgrade training for each employee is built into the

cost structure of the section, and completion of

that training is an important factor in each employee’s yearly appraisal. This procedure, which

is in essence a mandate that every employee continually upgrade his or her skills, was instituted

at approximately the same time that the CAD/

CAM equipment was installed in the section and

grows out of the manager’s perception of the need

for engineers and support personnel to keep up

with the dynamic advances of the computer-aided

tools of their profession.

The JPL representatives who participated in the

selection of the trainees for the CAD/CAM operator program therefore looked for applicants who

were highly motivated and indicated a desire to

continue their education; and the five trainees

hired by JPL were those whose motivation both

to work at the lab and to continue their education

was most apparent. As noted previously, JPL

sought trainees who would eventually become fully fledged design engineers-whom the training

would provide with sophisticated entry-level skills

and who had potential for career growth.

When interviewed halfway through the worksite

training period, JPL representatives were wellsatisfied with the work, the motivation, and the

potential for success of all eight trainees. At the

end of the worksite training, the five trainees with

the strongest desire to pursue engineering degrees

were hired. Two months after they were hired as

full-time employees, they were, according to the

section’s CAD supervisor, “doing very well” and

continued to be enthusiastic and motivated. Ten

trainees in the second cycle are now receiving

laboratory training at JPL (eight from the Coordinated Funding Project and two funded by Investment in People).

Student Evaluations.—Individual interviews

were held with five session I graduates-the two

graduates hired by Singer Librascope and three

of those hired by JPL. The students were uniformly positive about the instructor, appreciative of the

experience they had received, and enthusiastic

*JPL, which is an outgrowth of an educational institution but which

operates like a company, is perhaps uniquely structured to create the

academic-industry linkages illustrated by the CAD/CAD program.

about the current work. All of the students gave

the instructor an excellent rating, and some added

that he was one of the best teachers they had ever

worked with. They specifically noted his ability to

provide clear and concise explanations; his attention to detail; his willingness to provide personalized assistance; and his patience and dedication.

While all of the students rated the course content highly, the new Singer hires would have preferred more class- and laboratory-time devoted to

printed circuit board design. The other problem–

one mentioned by the instructor himself and all of

the students interviewed —was the ratio of classroom to laboratory time. While most of the students found the 6 hours of lecture per week helpful

in the beginning of the course, all stated that more

lab and less lecture would have been more appropriate during the second half. Two students noted

that the small size of the class resulted in specific

benefits: personalized instruction and an environment that encouraged the students to help each

other to explore a variety of design techniques.

Others mentioned that the instructional material,

especially the ComputerVision workbook, were excellent and that the class projects were especially

helpful as learning experiences.

Although many of the students were required

to travel long distances-both to the college from

their homes and between the college and the laboratory sites—only one mentioned traveling as a

problem. None of the students felt that the timelag between the classroom lectures and the laboratory practice sessions created undue difficulties.

All of the graduates stated that the laboratory experience was the most beneficial aspect of the program-not because the lectures were not good, but

because of the necessity to engage in hands-on

practice on the equipment. Two of the JPL students specifically mentioned the helpfulness of

JPL employees during the laboratory sessions.

When, however, the students were asked if they

preferred the college-classroondindustry-lab-site

set-up to a situation in which the lectures and laboratory work could have been centralized in one

location, all but one said that it would have been

preferable that the equipment be located at the college. The dissenting student (one of the few who

had not had previous industrial experience) said

that the industrial environment provided him with

a greater incentive to work harder and learn more

than would have been possible in a classroom environment. All of the students, on the other hand,

felt that the 7 to 10 weeks of worksite experience

after the formal coursework was extremely valuable, primarily because they were given “real”
Appendix A—Selected Case Studies: Summaries ● 461

. .—— - .—.—

work rather than make-work and because it gave

them an opportunity to learn about the specific

working procedures of the two industrial laboratories.

All of the students expressed their intention of

continuing their education at 4-year colleges or

universities. One plans to pursue a mechanical engineering degree, and the others intend to work on

degrees in industrial design.

Present and Future CAIYCAM Training Capacity of Glendale Community College.—At the completion of the first cycle of the CAD/CAM program, Glendale College, as the program operator,

had met most of the objectives set out by the Coordinated Funding sponsors. The college, with the

help of PIC and the sponsoring companies, had

operated a vocational training program that met

the needs of specific local employers; had involved

the employers and “other appropriate entities”

(PIC and ComputerVision) in plannin g, design, and

implementation; and had provided the participants

with effective job skills training and continuing

employment with career advancement potential.

The final objective of the Coordinated Funding

Project–to incorporate the resulting curriculum

into ongoing college vocational education programs-has proved to be more difficult to accomplish.

Operating a program combining classroom and

worksite training produced a number of beneficial

results, not the least of which were the availability of state-of-the-art equipment at the industry

sites and the opportunity given to the trainees to

acclimate themselves to an industrial environment. The use of industrial labs and the instructor upgrade training provided by project funds enabled the college to demonstrate its effectiveness

in training vocational education students to meet

industrial needs. The expansion of the program

under Investment in People funding also demonstrated that the college could serve as a resource

for training existing industrial employees as well

as entry-level candidates.

The college, however, is painfully aware of the

possible “self-destructing” nature of a CAD/CAM

program operated by a school with no equipment

of its own. By the end of the second cycle of the

program, both Singer Librascope and JPL will be

“saturated” with CAD/CAM operators, at least

for the present. In order to keep the program running, and to truly incorporate it into the ongoing

curriculum of the college, GCC will have to find

other sources of equipment.

This potential problem was apparent from the

inception of the program, and both PIC and the

college’s director for special projects have been actively working on a solution. College representatives believe that the least promising solution in

the long run is to assume ~hat they-will be able

to perpetuate the program indefinitely by relying

completely on industry laboratories for the handson p-ortion of the training. They are, consequently, exploring the possibility of obtaining donated

or reduced-price equipment to be installed at the

college to be used for the training of regularly

enrolled drafting and design students and for operating upgrade programs for industry. *

Technical Training Center.–Another possibility, one which now looks extremely promising, is

the creation of a centrally located technical training center, supported by-local industries, schools,

and agencies and outfitted with equipment to address a wide variety of “high tech” skills including

CAD/CAM, computer repair, and word processing.

The center—which until recently was little more

than an idea conceived of by the chairman of the

Private Industry Council–is now beginning to

look like it may-become a reality.

A recently closed junior high school in Glendale

would provide the site; education and business

leaders-and local government officials have informally agreed on the concept; and a major producer

of CAD/CAM equipment has expressed interest in

the possibility of donating equipment. The current

thought is that the facilities would be shared by

all of the schools in the district and would operate

on a three-shift schedule, allowing for three, 3%-

hour teaching units in each subject per day. Although such a center would be challenging to administer and maintain, and although students

would still have to travel to laboratory sessions,

the problems noted previously with regard to coordinating production and training use of industry

equipment would be solved, and the college would

have access to the equipment it needs to continue

its CAD/CAM course and to expand into related

areas.

Future Potential.–Glendale College vocational

education instructors and administrators believe

that a crucial element in the college’s future potential to operate vocational education programs is

the maintenance and expansion of the communication channel with loc~ industries, established

*In mid-May 1983, the college made the decision to continue the CAD

CAM training program through June 1984, funded with regular district

funds. The lecture portion will remain at the college. The lab work will

be conducted in the private sector at late night and early morning hours,

In addition, the college administration is now developing a foundation

which will be able to borrow money tQ be used, in part, to build new

laboratories to house the equipment and to cover equipment

maintenance costs,
462 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

through such means as the school’s association

with PIC and the Coordinated Funding and Investment in People projects.

The open channel to industry representatives is

seen as necessary for a variety of reasons. Glendale representatives believe that colleges are 5 to

10 years behind industry in technical expertise and

sophistication of equipment; and they look on industry as a resource for instructor upgrading, information about new industrial advances and hiring requirements, and material and equipment to

implement new courses.

The college drafting instructor, for example, believes that within the next few years mechanical

and architectural drafting programs that do not

incorporate computer-aided design will not be

achieving their major goal, which is to produce jobready graduates. In return for industry support,

the vocational education division of the college is

committed to institute whatever ongoing changes

are reasonable and necessary to meet industrial

needs and to serve as a training resource for local

industries.

Although the college’s present capacity to teach

programs in computer-aided design and manufacturing is limited by its almost complete lack of

equipment, the bridge-building activities of the

past 4 years (participation in PIC programs and

representation on the PIC board, recruitment of

industrial representatives for college advisory

committees, and participation in programs like the

Coordinated Funding Project) seem destined to

bear fruit in the near future. Local industries that

have benefited from CETA training programs

operated by the college now donate material,

equipment, and funds. The success of the Coordinated Funding Project demonstrated the college’s

ability and may bring more industrial support,

open more industrial labs, and help the school to

win more State funds.

The Investment in People grant, which allowed

the school to expand the CAD/CAM operator program, is but one example of the college’s potential to build on the achievements gained through

working with local industries and agencies. More

recently, the college was chosen as one of the possible west coast sites for the General Motors/United

Auto Workers retraining projects. The program

proposed by GCC—a year-long electronics technician course—has been accepted in concept and will

be implemented if it proves feasible for 20-laid off

GM workers to either relocate to or travel to Glendale for the length of time it would take to complete the course.

—

The synergistic relationship between the college,

the Private Industry Council, and the City of Glendale is a major key to the college’s future potential. PIC has engaged the support of its board

members to aid the college in obtaining equipment,

This, in itself, becomes a very powerful resource

because of the stature of the industries–including

JPL, ITT, Pacific Telephone, and banking and financial organizations-represented on the PIC

board. Whether the final result of the effort to

build GCC’S equipment and laboratory resources

takes the shape of a training center to which the

college has access, or laboratories located on the

college campus, the partners in the school-city-PIC

relationship seem committed to making use of

whatever equipment is obtained to serve the

broadest possible constituency.

The Glendale Private Industry Council.–While

the formal role played by PIC in the operation of

the CAD/CAM operator program was relatively

minor, the importance of the Private Industry

Council as an informal broker between educational,

industrial, and governmental organizations cannot

be overestimated. The idea for the CAD/CAM

operator program originated with the PIC director and chairman; the PIC chair secured the cooperation of his own organization (JPL); the PIC director enlisted Singer Librascope and Computervision; and the PIC staff assisted in placing the

cycle I graduates who were not hired by the participating firms.

Although PIC’S formal mandate is to operate

training programs for structurally unemployed

and displaced workers, the philosophy of the Glendale council encompasses a much wider sphere of

activity than the direct operation of governmentfunded training and employment programs. Integral to that philosophy is the creation of linkages

between the industrial and educational committees

to enhance the activities and resources of each and

to serve the community as a whole.

In light of this philosophy, the role of the broker

is profound, especially when one considers the difficulty of creating matches between the two ends

of the labor market spectrum: on one end, technologically oriented industries requiring many workers to have ever-more sophisticated entry-level

skills; and, on the other end, the structurally unemployed, * who may have few workplace ski~s!

——

*Stmctur~y unemploy~ individual are those whose situation reflects long-term changes in economic conditions, in contrast to the

“cyclically unemployed” who are periodically without work due to shortterm changes in the general economy.
Appendix A —Se/ected Case Studies: Summaries ● 463

.

and displaced workers, who may be only semiskilled.

Occupying the vast middle ground are colleges

and high schools requiring assistance to update

their curricula and upgrade their instructors so

they can assist in the job trainin g process; workers

with outdated skills who do not meet the Federal

poverty guidelines and are therefore ineligible for

federally funded programs; and firms whose workers require upgrade training but which may not

have the resources to provide that training inhouse. By taking the broad approach and making

the most of its formal and informal channels of

communication between all of the sectors of the

community, PIC hopes to have a pervasive effect

which, in the long run, may create that match between industry’s high-tech needs and the structurally unemployed.

At present, PIC is working on a number of

fronts, which, when brought together, may enable

it simultaneously to serve the needs of high-tech

industries and the structurally unemployed. Although the CAD/CAM operator program did not

serve the structurally unemployed, it did serve

some displaced workers and some who were below

the poverty level. It also strengthened the college’s

trairing capacity and aided local industries. In addition, the CAD/CAM program demonstrated the

feasibility of bringing the various participants

together to create a successful high-technology

training program and set the mechanism in place

for expanding it.

This type of activity–working both formally

and informally to strengthen various segments of

the education and training system and concentrating on strengthening the links between the segments—illustrates another tenet of the Glendale

PIC philosophy, characterized by the following

statement by the PIC chair: “There’s a need to recognize that nothing is static—once you get into it,

you’ve got to be willing to move. The way we’ve

done that is to address needs that are peculiar and

particular to industry now, and we ask industry

to forecast needs downstream, so we can be ready

to alter our training programs to be ready at the

time that the need exists. My impression is that

industry loves it if they’re included and that school

systems are now put in the position of preparing

students for the real world. They’re beginning to

realize that they’re both part of it and that the

responsibility is a shared one. ”

To further strengthen education’s knowledge of

industry, PIC is working to encourage 1ocal

schools to substitute a work experience program

for the traditional sabbatical leave for instructors

and to provide appropriate promotion credits for

such a program. To increase industry’s recognition

of the capacities of educational institutions, PIC

encourages companies to look on vocational education teachers as a training resource and to contract

out in-house training to the colleges. *

This system, according to the PIC chair, would

cost the companies less than in-house training and

would strengthen the schools’ capacity to provide

industrial-level technical training. While this notion would not necessarily work for all types of

training in all companies, it is likely to work in a

number of instances if well-managed and properly designed.

The CAD/CAM operator program illustrates

that industry-education cooperative training endeavors can succeed, in spite of the difficulties that

inevitably occur. The problem now facing Glendale

Community College-how to continue the course

when the two industrial sponsors are saturated

and the equipment question is still up in the air—

graphically illustrates the PIC chair’s statement

that “nothing is static. ” PIC and the college, however, are ready to move—either to move to other

companies to keep the program running until a

permanent solution can be found, or to acquire

equipment or establish a trainin g center. This type

of innovative approach to CAD/CAM training,

which relies on mutual cooperation while recognizing that circumstances change and resources are

limited, may not be guaranteed of certain success,

but it is most certainly well worth the attempt.

*In many cases, this would involve providing industrial upgrade training to the teachers, as was done in the case of the GCC instructor.
Index
Index

Acme-Cleveland, 285

Adult Education Participation Survey, 231

Allen-Bradley, 281, 286, 287

American Assembly of Collegiate Schools of

Business, 239

American Natiomd Standards Institute, 88

American Society for Testing Materials, 88

American Society for Training and Development,

222, 231

Applicon, 275

Apollo, 278

Arthur D, LittIe, 269

ASEA Robot Co., 118, 287, 289, 294, 298, 299

A. T. Kearney, 302

Australia, 296, 298

Automated Manufacturing Research Facility

(AMRF), 307, 320, 322, 326

Automatix, 236, 243, 292, 295

Autoplace, 287

background, 25-26

Battelle Memorial Institute, 302

Belgium, 298

Bendix, 285, 286

Black & Decker, 291

Boeing Commercial Airplane Co., 46, 271

Boeing Computer Services, 233, 240

Booz-Allen and Hamilton, 302

Brigham Young University, 238, 240, 241, 245, 248

British Machine Tool Trades Association, 197

Buick, 277, 296

Bulgaria, 334

Bureau of Census, 19, 164

Bureau of Labor Statistics, 127, 128, 136, 379

Calma, 275, 301

Camax Systems, Inc., 277

Canada, 14, 255, 285, 337, 360

Carnegie-Mellon University, 85, 145, 147, 316, 328

Caterpillar Tractor, 301

Census of Manufactures, 278

Center for Occupational Research and Development,

236

Chasen, S. H., Lockheed Georgia, 43

China, 298

Chrysler, 197, 275, 276

Cincinnati Milacron, 120, 235, 236, 270, 283, 285,

287, 289, 292, 296, 327

Clark Equipment, 299

Computer-Aided Manufacturing International

(CAM-I), 314, 329

ComputerVision, 272, 273, 276, 277

Congress:

Congressional Budget Office, 377

Congressional Research Service, 377

House Committee on Science and Technology, 388

congressional interest and policy, 29-30

Coniglaro, Laura, 289

Connecticut, 37, 39, 59

Control Data, 274, 275, 276, 277

Coordinating Committee on Research on Intelligent

Robotics Systems, 321

Copperweld Robotics, 287, 291

Corporation for Technological Training, 251

Cross & Trecker, 283, 284, 285, 286

Current Population Survey, 136

Czechoslovakia, 334

Daiwa Securities American, Inc., 294

Dallas Independent School District, 241

Dassault, 276

Data General, 274, 275

Data Resources, Inc., 137

Danly Machine Corp. 277

Deere & Co., 67, 68

Department of Agriculture, 325

Department of Commerce, 284, 312, 319, 320

Department of Defense, 13, 43, 58, 77, 137, 271, 278,

283, 289, 307, 312, 314, 316, 317, 318, 319,

326, 329, 349, 389

Air Force Materials Laboratory, 80

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

(DARPA), 13, 316, 317, 318, 319

Electronics Computer-Aided Manufacturing

(ECAM), 315, 319

Industrial Modernization Incentives Program

(IMIP), 316

Integrated Computer-Aided Manufacturing

(ICAM), 315, 319

Intelligent Task Automation (ITA), 316

Manufacturing Technology Program (ManTech),

13, 314, 315, 316, 318, 319

Naval Surface Weapons Center, 318

Office of Naval Research, 13, 317, 318, 319

R&D funding, 314

Strategic Computing project, 86, 87

Technology Modernization (TECHMod) program,

316

Department of Energy, 325

Department of Labor, 19, 20, 205, 252, 254, 386, 389

Department of Transportation, 325

DeVilbiss, 287, 289

Digital Equipment Corp., 85, 118, 274, 275

Eastfield Community College, 242, 244

East Germany, 334

education, training, and retraining issues, 219-265

case studies: selected instructional programs,

241-255

career guidance and programmable automation,

249

job counseling, outplacement, and retraining for

displaced workers, 252

needs, problems, and trends, 244

467
468 ● Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workp/ace

roles, functions, and capacities of programs, 241

challenges facing the U.S. instructional system,

234

instructional requirements for programmable

automation, 234

engineers, 238

managers, 239

changing context, 220-221

current trends in instruction, 226-234

changes in emphasis, 232

changes in enrollment, 226

education and training in Europe and Japan,

255-260

effects of programmable automation and other

technologies, 222-226

categories of instruction, 225

roles for instruction in a changing society, 223

U.S. instructional system, 260

effects of progr ammable automation on employment,

101-175

contextual factors, 162-176

Japanese mechanisms of adjustment, 169

labor supply, 164

minority employment patterns, 170

jobs, 105-112

task creation, 109

task displacement, 107

occupational employment, 119-144

clerical workers, 140-142

engineers, 119-124

managers, 142-144

production and related workers, 127

sales/service, 144

technicians, 124-127

shift in skills and occupational mix, 144-162

compensation patterns, 153

transient skill requirements, 151-153

qualification trends, 152

white collar/salaried employment, 144-151

intercompany patterns, 151

overall effects, 146

PA producer employment mix, 148

skills, 110-112

user industry, 112

geographic incidence, 115

unemployment rates by State, 117

effects of programmable automation on the work

environment, 179-215

European and Japanese Experiences, 209-213

Japan, 209

Norway and Sweden, 210

West Germany, 212

OTA work environment case studies, 183-190,

213-215

agricultural equipment, 186, 214

auto company, 188, 215

commercial aircraft, 187, 214

small metalworking shops, 185, 213

work environment impacts, 191-208

changing skill levels, 194

labor-management relations, 204

occupational safety and health, 196

organiztaion, 191

training, 195

Electronic Industries Association, 88, 123

Emhart Corp., Beverly, Mass., 55, 69, 204, 238, 246,

299, 328

Evans, 276

Ex-Cell-0, 285

Federal policy, implications of, 15-22

policy strategies, 15

specific policy options, 16

education, training, and retraining, 20

employment, 18

technology development and diffusion, 16

work environment, 19

Ford Motor Co., 197, 275, 287

France, 270, 272, 284, 295, 307, 330, 331, 337

progr ammable automation

Filiere Electronique, 354

Filiere Robotique, 353

Franklin Research Laboratories, Inc., 294

GCA, 291, 292, 295, 296, 301

General Electric, 74, 83, 86, 140, 164, 275, 281, 286,

291, 294, 295, 301, 327, 328, 334

General Motors, 67, 140, 162, 197, 235, 247, 271,

277, 295, 296, 327

Georgia Institute of Technology, 328

Georgia Tech, 321

Gerber Scientific, 274

Gidding & Lewis Machine Tool Co., 283

Glendale Community College, 236, 241, 242

GMF Robotics, 295, 296

Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., 254

Grade, 276

Barrington, Joseph, 71

Harris, 275

Henry Ford Community College, Detroit, 236, 242

Hewlett Packard, 275, 291

Hitachi Seiki, 284, 294, 298, 299, 334

Honeywell, 255

IBM, 67, 74, 108, 240

Industrial Modernization Incentives Program

(IMIP), 316

Industrial Science and Technological Innovation

Division, 323

Ingersoll Milling Co., 283, 284

Initial Graphics Exchange Standards (IGES), 320

Insight Technology, 277

International Association of Machinists, 390

International Monetary Fund (IMF), 342

international support for programmable automation,

337-363

Canada, 360

France, 352

Italy, 362
/ndex ● 4 6 9

Japan, 340

Netherlands, 362

Norway, 359

Sweden, 350

United Kingdom, 356

West Germany, 346

International Trade Commission, 285, 289, 290, 294

Intersil, 301

Intergraph, 273, 276

Integrated Computer-Aided Manufacturing (ICAM),

315, 319, 320, 334

Integrated Programs for Aerospace Vehicle Design

(IPAD), 325, 334

International Association of Machinists and

Aerospace Workers’ Bill of Rights, 206

International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers,

236

International Skills Olympics, 258

Italy, 270, 283, 286, 289, 294, 298, 299, 331, 338,

362

Japan, 10, 13, 52, 152, 153, 167, 205, 209, 270, 281,

282, 283, 285, 287, 294, 296, 297, 299, 337

displaced labor, 8

education and training, 255, 258

Fanuc Ltd., 65

“Fifth Generation” computer project, 86

Japan Industrial Robot Association, 48, 343

Japan Robot Learning co., 343

mechanisms of adjustment, 169

Ministry of Education, 258, 259

Ministry of International Trade and Industry, 14,

340, 344

Ministry of Labor, 259

Nissen Motor Co., 210, 259

programmable automation, 340-346

government concern, 342

government mechanisms, 342

government support to industry, 343

machine tool industry, 343

research & development, 343

robot industry, 343

R&D, 307, 309, 329, 330, 332, 333, 334

Kawsasaki, 289

Kearney & Trecker, 283

Kentucky, 284

Kulicke & Soffa, 291

Lardner, James, 72

Le Blond-Makino, 284

legislation:

Act on Employee Participation in Decisionmaking,

1977, Sweden, 211

Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, 380

Comprehensive Employment and Training Act

(CETA), 255, 392

Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, 379

Education Consolidation and Improvement Act of

1981, 391

Elementary and Secondary Education Act, 233

Emergency Supplemental Appropriations for Jobs

Act of 1983, 378

Employment Act of 1946, 378

Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, 378

Full Employment Act of 1978, 378

Higher Education Act of 1968, 391

Job Training Partnership Act, 21, 254, 391, 392

Manpower Development and Training Act, 391

Manufacturing Sciences and Technology Research

and Development Act of 1983, 380

National Defense Education Act, 232

National Labor Relations Act, 386

National Rail Reorganization Act of 1978

Occupational Safety and Health Act, 387

Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, 380

Rail Passenger Services Act of 1970, 380

Redwoods Act of 1978, 380

Social Security Act of 1935, 377

Targeted Jobs Tax Credit, 379

Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982,

379

Trade Act of 1974, 254

Trade Expansion Act of 1962, 379

Vocational Education Act of 1963, 391

Vocational Education Act of 1983, 391

Wagner-Peyser Act of 1933, 254, 377

Work Environment Act, 1978, Sweden, 211

Working Environment Act, 1977, Norway, 211

Lehigh University, 240

Litton Office Product Center, 142

Lockheed-Georgia, 70, 275

Lupton, Tom, University of Manchester, 239

Manufacturing Technology Advisory Gruop

(MTAG), 315, 316, 319

Martin Marietta, 316

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 43, 151, 328,

333

Magak Machinery Co., 283, 284

Microelectronics and Computer Corp. (MCC), 329

Modular Systems, 301

Monarch Machine Took, 285

McAuto, 277, 278

McDonnell Douglas, 276

MacNeal-Schwandler Corp., 275

National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 13,

77, 307, 312, 319, 323, 325, 326, 349

National Association of Temporary Services, 172

National Bureau of Standards, 13, 16, 18, 81, 307,

312, 320, 321, 325, 332, 334

Automated Manufacturing Research Facility, 13,

82, 87

Center for Manufacturing Engineering, 319

Initial Graphics Exchange Standard, 77

National Engineering Laboratory, 77

National Center for Education Statistics, 226, 255

National Center for Urban and Ethnic Affairs, 251
470 . Computerized Manufacturing Automation: Employment, Education, and the Workplace

National Institute for Occupational Safety and

Health, 20, 197

National Machine Tool Builders Association, 281

National Research Council Symposium on LaborMarket Conditions for Engineers, 123

National Science Foundation, 13, 16, 123, 307, 312,

319, 321, 323, 326

Production Research Program, 13

Netherlands, 14, 255, 276, 362

New York University, 104, 148

Niigata Engineering Co., 333

Nordson Corp., 291

North Carolina State University, 317

Northrop, 276

Norway, 10, 14, 20, 82, 210, 255, 270, 272, 287, 289,

294, 337, 359

Norwegian Ministry of Local Government and

Labor, 360

Occupational Safety and Health Administration, 20,

386

Octek Corp., 92

Ontario Board of Industrial Leadership and

Development, 361

Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development (OECD), 342

Organization for Industrial Research, 277

Pentel, 289

Perkins-Elmer, 275

Poland, 334

policy issues and options, 367-397

existing Federal policy and options for new

initiatives, 373-397

adjustment assistance, 384

diffusion, 375

education, training and retr aining policy, 391

employment, 376

options for employment policy, 381

recent legislative proposals, 373

research and development, 374

standards, 374

technology development and use, 373

work environment policies, 386

Federal role, reasons for, 369

new policy, challenge of, 370

Federal policy strategies, 371

stakeholders, 368

Prab Conveyors, 287

Prab Robots, 287, 292, 294

Predicasts, Inc., 271

Prime, 274, 275, 276, 277

principle findings, 4-14

education, training, and retr aining issues, 11

employment effects, 5

progr arnmable automation industries, 12

research and development, 12

the technologies, 4

work environment, 8

Productivity Systems, Inc., 294

programmable automation industries, 269-304

computer-integrated manufacturing: potential

market developments, 300

conclusions, 302

evolution and outlook, 271-300

CAD, 271-278

numerical control and flexible manufacturing

systems, 278-287

robots, 287-299

prograrnmable automation technologies, 33-98

computer-aided manufacturing (CAM)

technologies, 48, 68

automated materials handling systems, 66-68

flexible manufacturing systems, 60-66

numerically controlled machine tools, 57-60

robots, 48-56

discrete manufacturing, 35

functional descriptions, 43

computer-aided design (CAD), 43

future of the technologies, 93-98

introduction, 34

manufacturing management, 69-73

computer-aided planning, 70

computer-integrated manufacturing, 71

management information systems,

trends and barriers, 74-93

artificial intelligence, 83-87

computer-aided design, 74-77

computer-integrated manufacturing, 82-83

flexible manufacturing systems, 81-82

numerically controlled machine tools, 80-82

robotics, 77-80

standards and interfaces, 82

Prototype and Plastic Mold Corp., Middletown,

Corm., 47

Purdue University, 82, 317, 328

Remote Manipulator System, 323, 324

Remote Orbital Servicing System, 323

Renault, 295

research and development (R&D), 307-334

funding and performers, 309-330

civilian agency programs, 319

federal funding, 314

industry funding, 326

national expenditures, 310

selected agencies, 311

international comparisons, 330-334

other sources of funding, 330

Tholen, Thomas P., University of California, 258

Robotic Industries Association (RIA), 48, 148

Robotics Assembly Institute, 294

Robotics International, 260

Rockwell International, 316

Roth, Bernard, Stanford University, 72

Sanders, 274

Schlumberger, 85, 275

Scientific Applications, Inc., 294

%ikO, 289
/mYex . 47 1

selected case studies, 401-463

Brigham Young University, 408-425

CADAM Inc., 426-435

CAD/CAM Operator Training Program, 447-463

Oakland County Vocational Educational Centers,

403-407

programmable controller training program,

436-446

Semiconductor Research Corp., 329

Shope Data, 276

Sharpe Manufacturing Co., 284

Singer Librascope, 247

Society for Manufacturing Engineers, 119, 241, 260,

271

South Bend Lathe, 285

Spain, 284, 298

Sperry Univac, 275

Stanford University, 317, 328, 333

study approach, organization, and methodology,

27-28

Sun Microsystems workstations, 273

Sutherland, 276

Swanson Analysis, 275

Sweden, 10, 14, 20, 210-211, 255, 270, 272, 289, 294,

298, 299, 307, 330, 331, 334, 337”

Board for Technical Development, 352

Commission on Computers and Electronics, 351

programmable automation, 350

government role, 350

government support to industry, 350

Swedish Work Environment Fund, 334

Switzerland, 283

Taiwan, 283

Texas A&M University, 242, 244

Texas Instruments, 238, 289

Textron/Bridgeport, 283

Trade Adjustment Assistance Program, 252

Trade Readjustment Assistance Program, 254

Trallfa, 287, 289

Tyoda Machine Works, 284, 285

UAW-Ford Employee Involvement Program, 205

UCLA, 240

Unemployment Insurance System, 21

United Automobile Workers Union, 162, 205

Unigraphics, 276

Unimation, 270, 287, 289, 290, 292, 301, 327

United Kingdom, 14, 255, 270, 276, 293, 284, 289,

290, 294, 298, 331, 307, 333, 337

Department of Trade and Industry, 357

programmable automation, 356

government role, 356

government support to industry, 357

University of Edinburgh, Scotland, 333

University of Florida, 328

University of Hawaii, 330

University of Manchester, England, 193, 239

University of Maryland, 317, 319, 328

University of Michigan, 239, 242, 244

University of Pennsylvania, 240

University of Rhode Island, 321, 328, 330

University of Utah, 76

Upjohn Institute, 121, 136, 138, 145, 149

U.S. Employment Service, 254, 377

U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, 331

U. S. S. R., 284, 287, 334

Versatram, 287

VLSI Technology, 301

Vocational Education Data System, 229

Vocational Industrial Clubs of America, Inc., 258

Volkwagen Werk, 294

Wall Street Journal, 339

Weisel, Walt, Prab Robots, 148

Western Electric, 291

West Germany, 10, 13, 82, 152, 153, 212, 255, 270,

272, 276, 287, 289, 294, 298, 299, 337

DWFG, 347

German Engineers Association, 348

German-Norwegian Collaboration, 349

Messuschmitt-Bolkow-Blohm, 65

Ministry of Research and Technology (BMFT), 348

programmable automation, 346

government concern, 347

government role, 346

govermnent support to industry, 348

research and development, 348

R&D, 307, 309, 330, 331, 334

Technical University of Berlin, 77

Westinghouse, 164, 238, 270, 286, 292, 301, 327

White-Sundstrund, 283

Wickes Machine Tool Group, Inc., 284

Wider Opportunities for Women, Inc., 251

Worcester Polytechnic Institute, 205, 238, 242, 328

World Bank, 24, 44, 105, 119, 267, 305

Operational Manual for Project Analysis, 248

Yamazaki, 284

Yaskawa, 294, 298