Manufacturing Costs for Clothes Washer U.S. Department of Energy ivianuiasie Workshop Officeof Energy Efficiency Clothes Washers P
. and Renewable Energy July23, 1997 1000 IndependenceAvenue,SW ,uu ~Y^. , ~Washington, DC 20585 Approaches to Data Gathering, Reporting and Statistical Treatment "43 

# (5Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Introduction 4/ Where costs are used

- Life-cycle cost analysis

- Manufacturer impact analysis Need for new cost information

- Update/validate current information

- Recent experience with new technologies -Consideration ofWhirlpool technologies

- Compliance with the Process Rule

DRAFT July 9, 1997 2
. -Clothes Washer nWirksho:,, Manufacturing Costs Data Collection Issues IV Data collection timetable .I Characterizing uncertainty inmanufacturing costs



# V^ Variability between manufacturers for GRIM analysis 

# V Costing approach/Engineering analysis 

# Vt Consideration of Whirlpool prototype

DRAFT Juy9, 1997Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Data CollectionTimetable Importance of afinalized revision tothe test procedure Establishment of a baseline MEF value Milestones (approximate)

- Finalized revision totest procedure (Begin)

- Establishment of baseline MEF (Week 4)

-Data submittals to AHAM (Week 12)

- Release of datato DOE (Week 16)

DRAFT July 9. 1997Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Characterizing Uncertainty in Manufacturing Costs Kv The Department isproposing amethod to capture uncertainty in cost estimates:

-Manufacturers would provide a range of costs associatedwith

achieving an efficiency level. Ranges provided separately for variableand fixed costs. -Ranges described by triangular distributions with minimum, most

likely and maximum values. Custom distributionswill be accepted. -Shipment-based weights assigned to each distribution.

DRAFT July9, 1997 5Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs 

### IllustrativeInput Distributionsfor Incremental Manufacturing Costs

Efficiency ' , Level 1 

### 1

- -- 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Manuf- Mkt. Mkt. Incre.m enta C ost ($) acturer Share egen A 50% Efficiency -B 30% - Level2 --- _ ., 20%- -C 20%' 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Incremental Cost ($)
Efficiency / Level 3 0 I1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Incremental Cost ($) 

### Manufacturers can specifythe minimum, most likely,and maximum costs of achieving aparticular efficiency level. DRAFT Juy9, 1997 6Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Characterizing Uncertainty in Manufacturing Costs v/ Samples drawn from manufacturer distributionsto create an industry distribution. 1 Results reported as distribution curves over entire range of costs and forall efficiency levels. 4/ Range of costs reported for different percentile intervals (e.g., mean, 10%, 25%,50%,75%, 90%).

DRAFT July9, 1997Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Shipment Weighted Cost Distributions
Forecast: W Avg Var Cost Lvl 1 1,000Trials Frequency Chart 2 Outliers .032 32

. 024 24 Efficiency = ' _I

. - co 016 16 Level 1 .0 ,08 s .000 0 $1.75 $2.25 $2.75 $3.25 $3.75
Forecast:W Avg Var Cost Lvl2 Sampling of cost 1,000Trials FrequencyChart 2Outliers distributionswith .027 27 with

o.020 t l ,20.25 application of market Efficiency Ll .0I ,I Lvficelncy - i,, l l l l l111,2 0 1. share weights results in Level 20, *° 0 .-- Liilllllll lLtI -- 6.7 

### industrycost .00o0 jii Blr i m f0 distributionsforeach $2.75 $3.31 $3.88 $4.44 $5.00 efficiency level
Forecast: W Avg Var Cost Lvl3 1,000Trials Frequency Chart 0 Outliers Efficiency 5 .012 I ll | 12 Level 3 000 0ll llllllll l. $4.00 $4.75 $5.50 $6.25 $7.00 Cost AT ,,97 DRAFTJuly 9, 997 8 lt.Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Cost - Efficiency curves can be constructed for various percentile values indicating% ofshipments below a certain cost.

$7.00 $6.00-- 90% 75% 50% $5.00-

- 0 t 0 25% 10% 8 $4.00- $3.00 $2.00 $1.00-------_ 1 2 3 Efficiency Level

DRAFT July 9. 1997 9Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Variability between Manufacturers forGRIM Analysis ,/ Shipment weighted cost distributionsfor the industry can be directly inputto GRIM. 

### The Department isseeking additional input on the mechanics of performing sub-group or manufacturer specific GRIM analysis. 4/ Comments are welcome on a methodology suggested by one ofthe stakeholders.

DRAFTJuy 9. 1997 10Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Costing Approach/Engineering Analysis

/' Manufacturers have indicated their preference for an ENERGYEFFICIENCY approach to reporting manufacturing costs. 

# 4/ AHAM members believe appropriate levels are baseline, 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% improvement applied to an existing Vertical Axis clothes washer and improvements of35%, 40%, 45% and 50% applied to a Horizontal Axis clothes washer. / Thevalue ofthe baseline MEF will be calculated once thetest procedure isfinalized and efficiency improvements reviewed accordingly.

DRAFT July 9, 1997Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Costing Approach/Engineering Analysis(cont.) Manufacturers do not believethat disclosure of design options is practical and possible given the proprietary nature ofthe 

### information. 

## V. AHAM has requested a modification to the survey instrument in order to segment the costs ofTooling, Investment, Research and Development, and Marketing. More specific definitions of these and other cost categories has been prepared by DOE.

DRAFT Juy9, 19

97 12Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Consideration ofWhirlpool Prototypes AHAM members believe it isnot appropriate forthem to comment on the cost/efficiencies of Whirlpool designs. Whirlpool does not think it isappropriate forthem to provide costing information on these prototypes. They have offered to cooperate instead with athird-party cost assessment.

DRAFT July9. 1997 13Clothes Washer Workshop: Manufacturing Costs Consideration ofWhirlpool Prototype (cont.) The Department intends to have theWhirlpool designs costed for use infuture analysis. 

# V, Details ofthis assessment will bevetted with stakeholders priorto its initiation. ~/ The cost data will not beformally integrated to the Life-Cycle-CostAnalysis until more information isavailable on these designs. 

# 4/ The cost data will be included inthe Manufacturer Impact Analysis.

DRAFT July 9, 1997 14