APPENDIX 8A. FULL FUEL CYCLE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8A.1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 8A-1

8A.2 METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................... 8A-1

8A.3 ENERGY MULTIPLIERS FOR THE FULL FUEL CYC LE ...................................... 8A-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 8A.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inpu ts ......................................... 8A-3

Table 8A.3.1 Energy Multipliers for the Full Fuel Cycle (Based on AEO2014 ).............. 8A-3

8A-iAPPENDIX 8A. FULL FUEL CYCLE

8A.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix summarizes the methods the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used to

calculate the full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) energy savings estimated from potential standards for 3 -phase,

air -cooled air conditioning and heating equipment and water source heat pumps. T he FFC measure includes point-of- use (site) energy; the energy losses associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; and the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. DOE’s method of analysis previously encompassed only site energy and the energy lost through generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. In 2011 DOE announced its intention, based on recommendations from the National Academy of Sciences, to use FFC meas ures of energy use and emissions when analyzing proposed energy conservation standards. 1 This appendix summarizes the methods DOE used to incorporate impacts of the full fuel cycle into the analysis.

This analysis uses several terms to describe aspects of energy use. The physical sources of energy are primary fuels such as coal, natural gas, or liquid fuel. Primary energy is equal to the heat content (British thermal units [Btu]) of the primary fuel used to produce an end- use service. Site energy use is defined as the energy consumed at the point of use in a house or establishment. When natural gas or petroleum fuels are consumed at the site (for example in an on-site furnace), site energy is identical to primary energy, with both equal to the heat conten t of the primary fuel consumed.

For electricity generated by an off

- site power plant, site energy is measured in kilowatt

hours (kWh). In such a case the primary energy is equal to the quads (quadrillion Btu) of primary energy required to generate and d eliver electricity to the site. For the FFC analysis, upstream energy use is defined as the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. FFC energy use is the sum of primary plus upstream energy use.

Both pr imary fuels and electricity are used in upstream activities. The treatment of electricity in full

- fuel

- cycle analysis must distinguish between electricity generated by fossil fuels and uranium and electricity generated from renewable sources (wind, solar, and hydro). For the former, the upstream fuel cycle relates to the amount of fuel consumed at the power plant. There is no upstream component for the latter, because no fuel per se is used.

8A.2 METHODOLOGY

The mathematical approach to determining FCC is discu ssed in Coughlin (2012). 2
Details on analyzing the fuel production chain are presented in Coughlin (2013). 3 The methods used to calculate FFC energy use are summarized here. When all energy quantities are normalized to the same units, FFC energy use can be represented as the product of the primary energy use and an FFC multiplier. Mathematically the FFC multiplier is a function of a set of parameters that represent the energy intensity and material losses at each stage of energy production. Those parameters depend only on physical data, so the calculations require no

8A-1assumptions about prices or other economic factors. Although the parameter values often differ by geographic region, this analysis utilizes national averages.

The fuel cycle parameters are defined as follows.

• a x is the quantity of fuel x burned per unit of electricity produced, on average, for grid electricity. The calculation of a

x includes a factor to account for losses incurred through the transmission and distribution systems.

• b y is t he amount of grid electricity used in producing fuel y , in MWh per physical unit of

fuel y

.

• c xy is the amount of fuel x consumed in producing one unit of fuel y

.

• q x is the heat content of fuel x (MBtu/physical unit).

• z x (s) is the emissions intensity for f uel x (mass of pollutant s per physical unit of x produced).

All the parameters are calculated as functions of an annual time step; hence, when evaluating the effects of potential new standards, a time series of annual values is used to

estimate the FFC e nergy and emissions savings in each year of the analysis period and cumulatively. Fossil fuel quantities are converted to energy units using the heat content factor q

x . To convert electricity in kWh to primary energy units, on- site electricity consumption is multiplied by the site

- to -power-plant energy use factor, described in chapter 10. The site- to

power-plant energy use factor is defined as the ratio of the total primary energy consumption by the electric power sector (in quads) divided by the total electricity generated each year.

The FFC multiplier is denoted μ (mu). A separate multiplier is calculated for each fuel used on site. Also calculated is a multiplier for electricity that reflects the fuel mix used in its generation. The multipliers are dimen sionless numbers applied to primary energy savings to obtain the FFC energy savings. The upstream component of the energy savings is proportional to (μ -1). The fuel type is denoted by a subscript on the multiplier μ.

When DOE estimates energy savings attr ibutable to appliance standards, the method for performing the full

- fuel -cycle analysis utilizes data and projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO); in the case of this rulemaking , the AEO2014. 4 Table 8A.2.1 summa rizes the AEO2014 data used as inputs to the calculation of various parameters. The column titled "AEO Table" gives the name of the table that provided the reference data.

8A-2Table 8A.2.1 Dependence of FFC Parameters on AEO Inputs
Parameter(s) Fuel(s) AEO Table Variables

q x All Conversion factors MMBtu per physical unit

a x All Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions Generation by fuel type

Energy consumption by sector

and source Electric ene rgy consumption by the power sector

b

c , c nc , c pc Coal Coal production by region and

type Coal production by type and

sulfur content

b p , c np , c pp Petroleum Refining industry energy consumption Refining-only energy use

Liquid fuels supply and dispositio n Crude supply by source

International liquids supply and disposition Crude oil imports

Oil and gas supply Domestic crude oil production

c nn Natural gas Oil and gas supply U.S. dry gas production Natural gas supply, disposition, and prices Pipeli ne, lease, and plant fuel

z x All Electricity supply, disposition, prices, and emissions Power sector emissions

The AEO2014 does not provide all the information needed to estimate total energy use in the fuel production chain. Coughlin (2013) describes the additional data sources needed to complete the analysis. The time dependence in the FFC multipliers for dishwashers, however, arises exclusively from variables taken from the AEO2014.

8A.3 ENERGY MULTIPLIERS FOR THE FULL FUEL CYCLE

FFC energy multipliers fo r selected years are presented in Table 8A.3.1 . The 2040 value was held constant for the analysis period beyond 2040, which is the last year in the AEO2014 projection. The multiplier for electricity reflects the shares of various primary fuels in total electricity generation throughout the forecast period.

Table 8A.3.1 Energy Multipliers for the Full Fuel Cycle (Based on AEO2014 )

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Electricity 1.044 1.045 1.0 46 1.047 1.047

Natural gas 1.109 1.111 1.113 1.114 1.114

Petroleum fuels 1.176 1.176 1.174 1.172 1.170

8A-3REFERENCES

1 U.S. Department of Energy–O ffice of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products and Certain Commercial and Industrial Equipment. Statement of Policy for Adopting Full Fuel Cycle Analyses into Energy Conservation Standards Program. Federal Register

. August 18, 2011. Vol. 76, no. 160 : pp. 51281–51289

.

2 Coughlin, K. A Mathematical Analysis of Full Fuel Cycle Energy Use

. Energy. 2012. 37(1): pp. 698–708. (Last accessed June 22, 2014.)

< http://www.sciencedirect.com/ science/article/pii/S0360544211006803 >

3 Coughlin, K. Projections of Full- Fuel -Cycle Energy and Emissions Metrics . 2013. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Report No. LBNL-6025E.

4 U.S. Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2014 with Projections to

2040 . April 2014 . DOE/EIA -0383(2014). Washington, D.C. (Last accessed June 22, 2014.) < www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf >

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