Demographic Trends and the Scientific and

Engineering Workforce

December 1985

NTIS order #PB86-206182
Recommended Citation:

U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Demographic Trends and the Scientific

and Engineering Work Force—A Technical Memorandum (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, OTA-TM-SET-35, December 1985).

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 85-600622

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents

U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402
Foreword

Scientists and engineers represent only 3 percent of the national work force, but

they are crucial to the Nation’s efforts to improve its economic competitiveness and

national security. Their work makes possible advances in knowledge that improve the

well-being of people all over the world.

This technical memorandum explores the effect that changes in the size and composition of the U.S. population may have on the science and engineering work force.

The study was requested by the Science Policy Task Force of the House Committee

on Science and Technology.

OTA concluded that while demographic trends are important and should be considered in thinking about future scientific output, they are not a controlling variable.

The flexibility of the American education system and the adaptability of our scientists

and engineers enable market forces and career choices to play a dominant role in balancing

supply with demand. OTA also concluded that it is important to maintain and strengthen

existing efforts to improve access to scientific and engineering careers for disadvantaged

groups.

 JOHN H. GIBBON S

Director

iii
Advisory Group

Jerrier A. Haddad

Consultant

Lee Hansen

University of Wisconsin

Luther S. Williams

Atlanta University

Dael Wolfle

University of Washington

Lilli S. Hornig

Wellesley College

Workshop on the Education and Employment of

Scientists and Engineers at the Nation’s Colleges and Universities

Sue Berryman

The Rand Corp.

Radford Byerly

Committee on Science and Technology

U.S. House of Representatives

Lloyd Cooke, Consultant

Michael Crowley

National Science Foundation

Charles Dickens

National Science Foundation

Daniel Drucker

University of Florida

Alan Fechter

National Research Council

Jerrier A. Haddad

Consultant

Maria Hardy

Louisiana State University

Allan Hoffman

National Academy of Sciences

John Holmfeld

Committee on Science and Technology

U.S. House of Representatives

Lilli S. Hornig

Wellesley College

Fred Landis

University of Wisconsin

W. Edward Lear

American Society for Engineering Education

Henry Lowendorf

Yale University

Shirley Malcom

American Association for the Advancement of

Science

Shirley McBay

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Michael McPherson

Brookings Institution

Denis F. Paul

State Education Department

State of New York

Willie Pearson

Wake Forest University

Geraldine Richmond

University of Oregon

Harrison Shun

University of Colorado

F. Karl Willenbrock

Southern Methodist University

Luther S. Williams

Atlanta University

Dael Wolfle

University of Washington

i v
OTA Project Staff

the Scientific and

for Demographic Trends and

Engineering

John Andelin,

Science, Information,

Work Force

Assistant Director, OTA

and Natural Resources Division

Nancy Carson Naismith, Science, Education, and Transportation Program Manager

Eugene Frankel, Project Director

Kathi Hanna Mesirow, Analyst

Barbara Berman, Research Assistant

Jonathan Atkin, Research Assistant

Marsha Fenn, Administrative Assistant

Betty Jo Tatum, Secretary

Chris Clary, Secretary

Gala Adams, Clerical Assistant

Michael Mandel National

Scientific Manpower

Other

John Alic Eric Basques

Barry Holt

Contractors

Academy of Sciences W. Curtiss Priest

Commission Robert G. Snyder

OTA Contributors

Philip P. Chandler, II Linda Garcia

Marcel C. LaFollette

Special Thanks for Extraordinary Assistance To:

Alan Fechter, National Research Council

Shirley Malcom, American Association for the Advancement of Science

Betty Vetter, Scientific Manpower Commission
Reviewers and Other Contributors

Josefina Arce de Sanabia

University of Puerto Rica

Alexander Astin

University of California at Los Angeles

Elinor Barber

Institute of International Education

Pedro Barbosa

University of Maryland

Dennis Chamot

AFL-CIO

Susan Chipman

Office of Naval Research

Juanita J. Collins

Crown-Zellerbach

Ewaugh Fields

University of the District of Columbia

Michael Finn

Oak Ridge Associated Universities

Robert A. Finnell

National Action Council for Minorities in

Engineering

Penny Foster

National Science Foundation

Debra Gerald

U.S. Department of Education

John E. Gibson

University of Virginia

Edward Glassman

U.S. Department of Education

Howard Gobstein

U.S. General Accounting Office

Manuel Gomez

University of Puerto Rico

Richard Griego

University of New Mexico

Harold Hodgkinson

Institute for Educational Leadership

Dana Jurak

Consultant

Clara Sue Kidwell

University of California at Berkeley

Charlotte Kuh

AT&T Communications

Jules Lapidus

Council of Graduate Schools

Cora Marrett

University of Wisconsin

Doris Merritt

National Institutes of Health

William Michael

National Academy of Engineering

Robert Neuman

American Chemical Society

Sheila Pfafflin

American Telephone & Telegraph Co.

Don I. Phillips

National Academy of Sciences

Vivian Pinn

Howard University

Beverly Porter

American Institute of Physics

Edith Ruina

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Anne Scanley

National Academy of Sciences

AlIan Singer

Institute of Medicine

Anne B. Swanson

National Science Foundation

Peter Syverson

National Research Council

Gail Thomas

Johns Hopkins University

vi
Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Page

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

CHAPTER 1: Overview and Findings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

CHAPTER 2: Demographic Trends: Undergraduate and Graduate Education . . . 33

CHAPTER 3: Demographic Trends and the Academic Market for

Science and Engineering Ph.Ds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

CHAPTER 4: The Industrial Market for Engineers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91

CHAPTER 5: Demographics and Equality of Opportunity . ..................113

APPENDIX A: The Education and Utilization of Biomedical

Research Personnel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............133

APPENDIX B: Responses to an OTA Survey on Information Needs Related to

Minorities in Science and Engineering . . . . . . . .............................141

Vll
Executive Summary
Executive Summary

The key role of the Federal Government in educating and assuring an adequate supply of scientists and engineers has been acknowledged since

the close of World War II. Scientists (including

social scientists; see figure 1) and engineers represent only 3 percent of the national work force,

but are considered by many to be a crucial element in the Nation’s efforts to improve its economic competitiveness and national security. The

Office of Technology Assessment was asked by

the Task Force on Science Policy of the House

Committee on Science and Technology to examine the implications of long-term demographic

trends for scientific and engineering personnel policy, and to consider as well the barriers to and

future trends in the participation of women and

minorities in scientific and engineering careers.

OTA found two significant demographic trends

that could affect the supply of scientists and engineers. The first is a decline in the college-age population in the next decade. The number of 18 to

24 year olds will drop from a peak of 30 million

in 1982 to about 24 million in 1995, or by 22 percent. Labor market specialists estimate that the

decline in 18 to 24 year olds could lead to a drop

in college enrollments of 12 to 16 percent between

now and 1995.

Figure l.— Population of U.S. Scientists and Engineers by Field, 1983

scientists I I 90/ . \

I

Scientists Life l i ~

44°1,

I

scientists /

Electrical

electronic

13%.- -.

Engineers

5 6 %

SOURCE National Science Foundation Science and Technology Resources, NSF 85-305, January 1985, pp 53-65
4 —

Second is an increase in the fraction of the 18

to 24 year old cohort that will be drawn from minority populations, including blacks, Hispanics

and Asian-Americans. These groups, with the exception of Asian-Americans, have historically participated less actively in science and engineering

education than whites.

Science and engineering baccalaureates have

constituted 28 to 32 percent of the total number

of bachelor’s degrees awarded in every year since

1952 (about 300,000 have been awarded annually

in science and engineering since 1972). If this

historical ratio continues, the expected drop in college enrollments and changes in the student mix

would lead to a decline in the number of scientists and engineers being produced by the Nation’s

higher education system. If, as has been argued,

the Nation will require an increasing number of

scientists and engineers to meet its national security, economic growth, and technological innovation requirements, this possible decline in science and engineering baccalaureates could pose

a significant problem. Fortunately, OTA finds this

scenario to be unconvincing.

It is entirely possible that the supply of people

trained in science and engineering will not decline

at all, despite the drop in the college age population. This is possible for several reasons. First, the

decline in enrollment may not be as severe as predicted. The proportion of 25 to 44 year olds who

attend college, and whose population cohort will

not be decreasing, has increased dramatically in

the past decade, especially among women, The

number of foreign nationals attending U.S. colleges and universities has increased more than tenfold in the past 30 years. If increases of 25 to 44

year olds and foreign nationals continue over the

next decade, they could compensate, in part, for

the decline in the number of 18 to 24 year olds.

Second, there could be increases in the rate at

which college students choose to major in science

and engineering. Less than 7 percent of the members of a given age cohort currently receive a

bachelor’s degree in a science or engineering field.

This is near the low point of the last decade. A

slight increase in the rate of selection of science

and engineering careers among college age students could more than compensate for the decline

in 18 to 24 year olds projected for the 1982-95 time

frame. For example, if the rate of attainment of

science and engineering bachelor’s degrees were

to increase from the 1982 level of 6.8 percent of

the 22 year old population to the 1973 level of

8.2 percent that would cause a rise in the number of degrees awarded in these fields of 20 percent, which would exceed the projected demographic decline. Projections of shortage might well

serve to increase science and engineering enrollments, as the labor market responds by promising increased pay or better job opportunities.

Third, science and engineering workers can be

obtained by employing a higher proportion of

those obtaining the required undergraduate degrees, and drawing on the existing talent pool.

Less than two-thirds of the science and engineering baccalaureates produced in recent years have

actually become part of the science and engineering work force.

Finally, on the graduate level, there appears to

be no direct relationship between the number of

Ph.D.s in science and engineering, and the size

of the graduate school age population. Between

1960 and 1970 the number of full-time graduate

science and engineering students enrolled in U.S.

institutions of higher education increased 150 percent, and the number of science and engineering

Ph.D.s awarded increased 183 percent. At the

same time the population of 22 to 34 year olds—

the group which supplies the majority of graduate students—increased only 18 percent. Between

1970 and 1983, by contrast, science and engineering enrollments increased by only 36 percent and

annual doctorates awarded by 1 percent, but the

22 to 34 year old population increased by more

than 50 percent. Accordingly, the reduction in the

size of the college-age cohort does not inevitably

lead to a reduced supply of scientists and engineers.

There is no national market for scientists and

engineers as a group. Rather, there are specific

markets for graduates trained in particular disciplines, and these markets and disciplines can experience very different conditions at the same

time. For example, the National Science Foundation (NSF) projected in 1982 that the demand for

electrical and aeronautical engineers and for computer specialists could exceed the supply of grad-
5

uates in those fields by as much as 30 percent over

the next 5 years, while at the same time there

would be significantly fewer openings for biologists, chemists, geologists, physicists, mathematicians, chemical, civil, and mechanical engineers

than there would be trained degree-holders. Thus,

it is individual disciplines, especially those linked

with high growth or defense-oriented industries,

that could experience personnel problems in the

future; not “science and engineering” as a whole.

This finding is encouraging, because individual disciplines have shown great ability to grow

and shrink as market conditions require. The

number of engineering baccalaureates, for example, more than doubled between 1976 and 1984,

The number of bachelor’s degrees in computer and

informational science tripled between 1977 and

1982. At the same time, those in education, foreign languages, anthropology, history, and sociology all fell by 30 percent or more. Thus, college

students appear to be highly responsive to market signals, and appear to shift their career choices

dramatically toward fields that promise greater

occupational rewards. OTA concludes that career

choices and market forces have a greater impact

on the supply of scientists and engineers than do

demographic trends.

The possible decline in student enrollments discussed above, coupled with a low retirement rate

among current faculty (most of whom were hired

in the late 1960s and will not retire until the late

1990s), will lead to a very weak academic market for new Ph. D.s in the next decade. Studies

carried out by a number of analysts in the late

1970s and early 1980s found that the annual demand for new junior faculty in the decade between

1985 and 1995 would fall to less than half of the

levels experienced in the early 1970s. The annual

academic demand for new science and engineering Ph. D.s could fall to as low as one-third the

rate of hiring experienced in the 1970s during the

1985-95 time period. In the late 1990s the academic requirements for new junior faculty in general, and for new Ph. D. scientists and engineers

in particular, should increase substantially, due

to increases in both enrollments and retirements.

In both cases the demand will most probably return to the levels experienced in the early 1970s

and remain there through the first decade of the

21st century. The pattern of decline followed by

increase will be experienced separately over the

next quarter century by each of the major science

and engineering fields. Although these patterns

are generally acknowledged by experts in the field,

considerable additional research is required to resolve uncertainties in the input assumptions to the

projections—enrollments, retirements, resignations, tenure rates, and others. The consensus of

experts is that a combination of faculty and student demographics will lead to a weak academic

market for new Ph. D.s over the next decade, followed by an upsurge in academic hiring between

1995 and 2010.

In industry the demand for Ph.D. scientists and

engineers has been strong for the past decade. If

it should continue strong through the next decade, it could compensate for the decline in the projected academic demand. By the year 2000 industry and academia could be in stiff competition for

new science and engineering Ph. D.s.

Apart from academia, however, where known

demographic trends exert considerable influence,

projections of supply and demand for scientists

and engineers in the overall economy are fraught

with uncertainty and are relatively unreliable.

Such projections depend on assumptions about

the future behavior of variables such as gross national product (GNP) growth, defense spending,

technological change and Federal and industrial

R&D expenditures, which themselves are not known

with any degree of certainty. There is, moreover,

no validated model that can reliably predict the

career choices of undergraduates or graduate students, or their responsiveness to changes in demand in technical fields. In the absence of such

a model, analysts have in the past tended to assume the continuation of existing trends, an assumption that can lead to gross inaccuracies.

Given the problems with forecasting supply and

demand for scientists and engineers, predictions

of shortages based on such forecasts should be

treated with considerable skepticism.

Most projections of shortages assume tacitly

that demand and supply are independent, so that

there can be no adjustment to supply-demand
6

— — — —

gaps. This assumption makes sense, however,

only

1.

2.

3.

under certain very restrictive conditions:

that demand for the final product is relatively unaffected by labor costs;

that supply is not appreciably affected by

wage changes; and

that the skill shortages are unique, in that

workers possessing them cannot be replaced

by workers from other occupations or by

new technology.

If any of these conditions are violated, then a

projected supply-demand gap will be closed by

market adjustment, On the supply side, an increasing number of entry-level professionals can

become trained in the shortage area, or experienced workers from neighboring specialties can

move into the shortage occupation, On the demand side, employers can offer higher salaries,

increase their search and recruiting efforts, rearrange jobs to utilize available skills, education

and experience more efficiently, or make larger

investments in training and retraining of their existing work force. It is more important to try to

understand the process of adjustment of the technical labor market to supply-demand imbalances

than it is to make long-term projections.

On the supply side, we have seen that students

shift their career interests to follow signals from

the marketplace. However, this response is not

a short-term remedy to a supply-demand gap because it takes 4 years to train a new engineer and

6 years (from the baccalaureate) to train a new

scientist in the university. In a fast-moving market, the needs of employers may change by the

time entering students graduate.

Occupational mobility from related fields is the

short-term response to shortages. The primary

concern about occupational mobility from the employer’s point of view is that it may lower the

quality of work or lead to expensive retraining.

From a societal point of view, however, occupational mobility appears to have served the Nation well in meeting its needs for technical personnel. The Manhattan project in World War II,

the Apollo program in the 1960s, the environmental and energy programs of the 1970s and the

rapid buildup of the semiconductor and computer

industries all relied successfully on the importation of scientific and technical talent from related

fields. Many analysts consider the mobility and

adaptability of the Nation’s scientific and engineering work force to be one of its greatest

strengths.

Spot shortages among experienced scientists

and engineers with specific areas of expertise, as

have been reported in surveys of electronics and

computer firms, are probably inevitable. When

a new technology is developed it simply takes time

before there is a pool of technically trained personnel who are experienced with the new techniques. There is no way to speed up this process

more than minimally. The government could possibly help by taking a more active role in promoting the retraining of experienced engineers. Mission agency research and development programs

in rapidly growing fields could possibly be modified to serve a retraining function. Apart from

such assistance, however, the government role in

alleviating shortages of scientists and engineers

appears quite limited.

OTA finds that the changing college student

demographics of the coming decade have several

important implications for national policy to promote equality of opportunity in science and engineering. If the number of college graduates declines, it becomes especially important to utilize

all potential human resources to the fullest extent

possible. This means that increasing attention

should be paid to those groups with historically

weak participation rates in science and engineering, such as women and some minorities. The increasing fraction of college students that will be

drawn from the black and Hispanic populations,

which have historically participated in science and

engineering education and employment at far

lower rates than the white population, imply that

programs aimed at increasing the participation of

these two minority groups could bean especially

important source of new talent. Thus, near-term

demographic trends underline the importance of

promoting equality of access to scientific and engineering careers for women and disadvantaged minorities.

Two factors stand out as crucial impediments

to women’s participation in science and engineering careers. The first is gender-stereotyped career
expectations among younger women entering the

science and engineering talent pool. These are

manifested most dramatically in the major field

preferences of college freshmen, where 20 percent

of the men surveyed in 1984 but only 3 percent

of the women, listed engineering as their field of

choice. By contrast, only 4 percent of the men,

but 21 percent of the women, listed education,

nursing, or occupational and physical therapy as

their preferred major. It appears that fields that

are heavily associated with “men’s work” tend to

be avoided by women, just as fields that are stereotypically associated with women are avoided by

men.

Girls’ expectations of how they will be able to

allocate their time during adulthood between participation in the labor force and work in the home

also affects their career decisions. One analyst

found that the more girls expect continuous labor force participation during adulthood, the

more their occupational goals approximate those

of their male counterparts. She also found that

male single parents make occupational and labor

force adaptations to parenting that look like the

occupational and labor force plans of young

women who expect dual family and work responsibilities. As long as women expect to assume the

major role in housekeeping and childrearing, and

to sacrifice their professional interests to those of

their husband, they will be less likely than men

to select occupations like science and engineering

that require major educational and labor force

commitments.

The second principal factor discouraging women

from pursuing scientific and engineering careers

is their differential treatment in the work force.

Women’s attrition rates from scientific and engineering careers are .50 percent higher than men’s

and their unemployment rates are more than double. Women’s salaries are significantly lower than

men’s in almost all fields of science, in every employment sector and at comparable levels of experience. In academia men are far more likely than

women to hold tenure-track positions, to be promoted to tenure and to achieve full professorships,

even when academic age, field, and quality of

graduate school attended are controlled for.

The differential treatment of women in the

work force is thought by some to be the most seri7

. —

ous violation of the principle of equality of opportunity because it affects people who have

established, by virtue of obtaining an advanced

degree, the right to pursue a scientific or engineering career based solely on the quality of their

work. It also has a significant discouraging effect

on female students in the educational pipeline,

who see the future benefits of their investment in

science and engineering education eroded by potential unemployment and underutilization in the

work force. In sum, gender-stereotyped career expectations and differential treatment of women

scientists in the work force are the two major factors discouraging women from entering science

and engineering.

Among the minority groups that have been historically underrepresented in science and engineering, blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians receive degrees in quantitative fields at less than half

the rate of whites, reflecting both lower participation in higher education and a lower rate of

selection of quantitative fields. The causes of this

underrepresentation are not well understood and

could benefit from additional research. The quality of academic preparedness in secondary schools

is cited by many experts as the greatest factor

affecting these minorities’ academic performance

and baccalaureate attainment in college. Academic preparedness, however, appears to be related to socioeconomic factors such as parents’

educational levels and social class. According to

one study, the difference in the choices of quantitative majors across racial and ethnic groups are

eliminated when the person is the second generation of a family to attend college. Social class,

according to the same study, seems to be a proxy

for a variety of family characteristics that affect

school achievement, including the family’s stress

on achievement, language models in the home,

academic guidance provided by the home, work

habits and activities of the family, and the nature

and quality of toys and games available to the

child. They correlate very highly with children’s

achievement scores.

Despite the formidable socioeconomic problems

responsible for the low participation rates in

science and engineering among blacks, Hispanics,

and American Indians, there is considerable evidence that well-designed intervention programs
8

—.—

can assist these groups in obtaining access to

science and engineering careers. To date these programs for minorities have not been rigorously and

systematically evaluated to determine the ingredients of success and failure. Nor has any attempt

been made to expand the coverage of the more

successful programs. NSF was mandated by Congress to take a leadership role in this area, but thus

far it has not done so. However, it appears safe

to conclude that the socioeconomic factors that

lead to poor academic performance and an inability to remain in the science and engineering

“pipeline” among blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians can be compensated for, to some degree, by well-designed intervention programs.

Finally, OTA examined the increasing participation of foreign nationals in U.S. science and

engineering education, which has raised a number of unresolved policy issues. The number of

foreign nationals enrolled in American institutions

of higher education has increased by a factor of

10 in the past three decades. Foreign students tend

to enroll proportionately more often in engineering and medical sciences, and less in humanities

and social sciences. They have assumed a very

large share, 25 to 45 percent, of enrollments and

doctoral degrees in graduate departments of engineering, physics, mathematics, and computer science, at the same time that the enrollment of

American students in those departments declined.

There is concern that because science and engineering education is capital-intensive, and because

many science and engineering graduate students

are supported by Federal research assistantships,

the United States is subsidizing the training of nonU.S. citizens. However, recent analysis indicates

that foreign degree recipients appear to contribute more than the full cost of their education to

their host institution. In addition there are foreign policy and goodwill benefits to the United

States from the education of foreign citizens. It

also appears that many graduate engineering departments would have had to curtail their research

activities substantially without foreign graduate

students.

There is disagreement as to whether individuals

admitted to the United States as students who

complete a graduate degree here should be allowed to remain here to accept employment.

Many employers say that they cannot fill certain

research and faculty positions without foreign nationals. Some professional societies, on the other

hand, contend that U.S.-educated foreign engineers are taking jobs at lower pay in order to remain in this country, thus driving down salaries

and reducing opportunities for U.S. engineers.

Several authors have made reference to a

“growing problem” of foreign nationals on engineering faculties. They contend that the drawbacks of an increasingly foreign born faculty are

limitations in their communications skills and

difficulties they may have in adjusting their teaching and research styles to the expectations of

American culture. Other observers note that foreign nationals may be unable to work on industry or government projects with national security

or economic competitiveness implications. The

validity of these assertions has yet to be documented.

The situation with respect to foreign nationals

can best be summarized by saying that although

foreign nationals represent a large and growing

fraction of science and engineering Ph.D.s, there

is considerable disagreement over whether this

constitutes a problem.

In general, there does not appear to be convincing cause for concern that demographic trends will

lead to shortages of scientists and engineers. The

labor market for technical personnel has a variety of mechanisms for adjusting to potential supply-demand imbalances, and these appear to work

reasonably well, without any great need for government intervention. However, the decline in the

numbers of college graduates available for scientific and engineering careers in the next decade

makes it increasingly important that all potential

resources for the scientific and engineering work

force be utilized to the fullest extent possible. For

this to happen, the problems experienced by

women, blacks, Hispanics, and other disadvantaged groups in entering scientific and engineering careers will have to be better understood and

addressed.
Chapter 1

Overview and Findings
Contents

Page

Background and Rationale for This Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

The Science and Engineering Work Force . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Demographic Trends and the Possibility of Future Shortages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

List of Figure s

Figure No. Page

l-1. Population of U.S. Scientists and Engineers by Field, 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

l-2. Employed Scientists and Engineers by Highest Degree, 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

l-3. Employed Scientists and Engineers bisector, 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

1-4. Employed Scientists and Engineers by Primary Work Activity, 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

1-5. U.S. Population by Major Age Group, 1950-2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

l-6. Population Distribution by Age, 1950-2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

l-7. Population Distribution by Age, 1950-2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

l-8. 18-24 Year Olds and 25-34 Year Olds in the U.S. Population, 1950-2010 . . . . . . . . . 18

1-9. Science/Engineering Bachelor’s and First-Professional Degrees Awardedby Field . . 18

1-10, Science/Engineering Master’s Degrees by Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

1-11. Science/Engineering Doctorates Awarded by Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

1-12. Comparison of Junior Faculty Openings With Earned Doctorates Awarded . . . . . . . 22
Chapter 1

Overview and Findings

BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE FOR THIS STUDY

The key role of the Federal Government in educating and assuring an adequate supply of scientists and engineers has been acknowledged since

the close of World War “II. 1 It was reemphasized

in a series of reports from the President’s Science

Advisory Committee in the immediate postSputnik (1958 to 1962) era which, according to

one analyst, z

. . . articulated the national need for greater numbbers of scientists and engineers . . ., and for

stronger federal support for the training of manpower for basic research and for university level

teaching.

The current Administration has reaffirmed the

Federal commitment to the education and training of scientists and engineers, stating that:3

. . . we have to make sure that we derive educational and training advantages from federally supported research—because all of our expectations

ISee Henry A. Moe, Chairman, “Report of the Committee on the

D]scovery and Development of Scientific Talent, ” in Vannevar Bush,

Science- The Endless Frontier, Office of Scientific Research and Deve](>pment (M’ashington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, JUIY

1945), pp. 135-186.

‘Susan Fallows, “Federal Support for Graduate Education in the

Sciences and Engineering, ’r background paper prepared for the Ad

Hoc Committee on Government-University Relationships in Support of Science, National Academy of Sciences, 1983, p. 5.

‘U.S. Congress, House, “Testimony of Dr. George A. Keyworth,

Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President, ” 1983 Science and Technology}’ Posture Hearing L$’ith the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Pof -

icy, Committee on Science and Technology, 98th Cong., 1st sess.,

Feb. 3, 1983 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office,

1983), p. 15.

and opportunities for industrial progress call for

a growing supply of skilled technical personnel.

The Task Force on Science Policy of the House

Committee on Science and Technology finds that

“many of the changes in educational and manpower demands are related in a significant way

to general developments in the rates of birth and

retirements. ” It believes that “these broad, demographic changes, if prudently used in connection

with other data, might well provide insights that

help anticipate future changes in enrollments and

related developments. ”4 To better understand

whether demographic trends could be used to help

anticipate changes in the requirements for education and training of scientists and engineers, the

Committee asked OTA to carry out a study of

“Demographic Trends and the Scientific and Engineering Work Force. ” As part of that study the

Task Force on Science Policy recommended that

OTA examine the effects of the “growing interest on the part of women and minorities” in pursuing scientific careers and the “barriers to such

participation and the means for lowering them.’”

This report is presented as OTA’s response to the

Committee’s request, and as its contribution to

the national dialog on this important aspect of

Federal science policy.

4 U. S. Congress, House, An Agenda for a Studv of G[)\’ernment

Science Policy, report by the Task Force on Science I)(>lic}, Committee on Science and Technology, 98th Con,g., Zd sess., Serial Nlhl

(Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Oft]ce, 1Q85), p. 30.

‘Ibid,, p, 31.

THE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING WORK FORCE

Scientists and engineers represent 3 percent of national security. Professor Karl Willenbrock of

the national work force, but are considered by Southern Methodist University expressed this senmany to be a crucial element in the Nation’s ef - timent quite vividly in hearings on “Scientists and

forts to improve its economic competitiveness and Engineers: Supply and Demand” before the Sci-
12

ence Policy Task Force of the House Committee Employed scientists and engineers numbered 3.5

on Science and Technology:6 million in 1983, an increase of 50 percent from

The nation’s economic vigor and quality of life,

as well as military security, are strongly dependent on the number and quality of the engineers

and scientists which the U.S. has available both

now and in the future. Thus, the health and wellbeing of the system which educates American

youth in engineering and science, and enables the

practicing engineer and scientist to stay at the

forefront of rapidly developing fields of science

and technology is a crucial part of the nation’s

science policy.

1976. During that same period the national employed labor force only increased by 11 percent.

The scientific and engineering work force is quite

heterogeneous in its composition. Fifty-six percent of the total are engineers, predominantly electrical and electronic engineers (13 percent); mechanical engineers (11 percent); and civil engineers

(8 percent), The remaining 44 percent are scientists, 11 percent each in the life and social sciences;

10 percent each in the physical and computer sciences; and 3 percent in the mathematical sciences.

Figure 1-1 presents the breakdown of the science

‘U.S. Congress, House, “F. Karl Willenbrock, Testimony, ” Comand engineering work force by field. Among the

mittee on Science and Technology, Science Policy Task Force, July scientists, one in five has completed the full doc10, 1985, p. 1, toral training that is generally considered necesFigure l-l.— Population of U.S. Scientists and Engineers by Field, 1983

3 %

2-/ 0

Chemica l

I 30/0

Social

scientists

1 1 % 8 %

h \

Engineers Scientists Life

44%. scientists

11%,

“w ,.

I

\ \

scientists /

FW70

SOURCE National Science Foundation, Sclerme and Technology Resources, NSF.85.305, January 1985, pp 5365
13

—

sary for a research career. Nearly half hold only

a bachelor’s degree and a third have been educated to the master’s level. Engineers are even

more heavily concentrated at the bachelor’s and

master’s level, as can be seen in figure 1-2.

More than 80 percent of the Nation’s engineers

are employed in business and industry, with 12

percent in government and only 3 percent in education. The scientists are somewhat more evenly

Eighteen percent of the scientists, but only 4 percent of the engineers, list research as their primary

work activity. Thirteen percent of the scientists,

but only 2 percent of the engineers, list teaching

as their primary activity. Development, by contrast, is the principal work activity of 30 percent

of the engineers but only 9 percent of the scientists (see figure 1-4).7

The racial, sexual, and ethnic composition of

distributed among the three employment catego- the scientific and engineering work force is also

ries, with 51 percent in business and industry, 17

percent in government, and 24 percent in educa- ‘Science and Technology Resources, NSF

tional institutions (see figure 1-3 for more details). DC: National Science Foundation, January

85-305 (Washington,

1985), pp. 53-65.

Figure l-2.— Employed Scientists and Engineers by Highest .Degree, 1983

Scientists/engineers

total = 3.5 million Scientists = 1.5 million Engineers = 1.9 million

12’/0 —

520/0

Other 11 0

/0 — Doctorate 10/0 — Other 20°/0 — Doctorate 180/0 — Other 21 0

/0 — Master’s

– Bachelor’s

I

250/o — Master’s

I 460/o — Bachelor’s I

I II 330/. — Master’s

30/o — Doctorate

II 58°/0 — Bachelor’s

SOURCE Nat!onal Science Foundation, Science and Technology Resources, NSF 85-305, January 1985, PP 53-65

Figure l-3.— Employed Scientists and Engineers

Scientists/engineers

total = 3.5 million Scientists = 1.5 million

7% — Other 12°/0 — Academia 80/0 — Other 24°/0 — Academia

67% — Business/industry

I 140/o — Government

51 0/0 — Business/industry

I Ii’ ”/o — Government

by Sector, 1983

Engineers =

3°/0 — Academia

1.9 million

50/o — Other

80% — Business/industry

I 12°/0 — Government

r

SOURCE National Science Foundation Science and Technology Resources NSF 85-305, January 1985 pp 53-65
14

Figure 1-4.—Employed Scientistsa and Engineers by Primary Work Activity, 1983

Scientists and engineers

3,465,900

Scientists Engineers

1,525,900 1,940,000

9%

alncludes social scientists and psychologists

SOURCE. National Science Foundation, Sc~ence and

quite complex and varied. Blacks, who constitute

10.4 percent of the national labor force, only constitute 2.6 percent of the scientists and engineers,

ranging from a high of 6 percent of the social

scientists to a low of 0.6 percent of the environmental scientists. Hispanics, who are 5.5 percent

of the total labor force, represent only 2.3 percent of the Nation’s scientists and engineers. At

the other extreme, Asians, who constitute 1.6 percent of the national labor force, make up 4.5 percent of the science and engineering work force.

Women make up 43.5 percent of the civilian

labor force, but only 13.1 percent of the scien4%

Technology Resources, NSF 85-305, January 1985, pp 53-65

tists and engineers. They are especially well represented in the mathematical sciences (45.8 percent)

and psychology (40.9 percent), and especially

poorly represented in engineering (3.5 percent)

and physical science (11.7).8 There is concern that

the low participation rates of women, blacks, and

Hispanics in science and engineering reflect not

only tastes and preferences but also social and cultural barriers to equal opportunity in those fields.

—— .—-— —-—

‘Professional Women and Minorities, 5th ed. (Washington, DC:

Scientific Manpower Commission, August 1984), p. 96.; Statistical

Abstract of the United States, 1985 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1985), pp. 391, 392.
15

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND THE POSSIBILITY

OF FUTURE SHORTAGES

The U.S. population grew from 152 to 234.5

million between 1950 and 1983, and is projected

to increase to 283 million by the year 2010.9 The

rate of growth has slowed dramatically, from 19

percent between 1950 and 1960 to 11 percent between 1970 and 1980, and a projected 5.6 percent

between 2000 and 2010. Within that overall

growth, different sub populations have experienced very different patterns of change, as can

be seen from figure 1-5.10 The school age and preschool populations (from birth to 17) grew rapidly between 1950 and 1970, and have essentially

leveled off since. The college and university age

population (18 to 34) underwent significant ex-

‘Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex

and Race: 1983 to 2080, Series P-25, No. 952 (Washington, DC:

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, May 1984),

table E, p. 7. See also, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1985,

op. cit., table 27, p. 26.

‘“Projections of the Population, op. cit., table E, p. 7.

Figure 1-5.—U.S. Population by Major Age Group

1950-2010 - - -

320 «- Projected

300 I

I

I

280 I

I + 5.6°1x

260

240

+ 7.3%

+IO%TI- l

l

220

l

+11 %

200

 I

+ 1 3.40/0

180

160 + 190/o

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

1950 196 0 1970 1980 1990

●

I

2000

■

✎

I

2010

>65

35-64

18-34

<17

P P P

Year

SOURCE Prolecflons of the Populaflon of fhe Ur?{ted States, by Age, Sex and

Race 1983 (O 2080, series P-25, No 952 (Washington, DC U S

Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, May 1984), table E,

p 7

pansion between 1960 and 1980, will contract in

size again between 1990 and 2000, and then expand somewhat between 2000 and 2010. The senior working age population, 35 to 64 years old,

will expand dramatically in size between 1980 and

2010, as will the total number of elderly people,

aged 65 and over.

Figures 1-6 and 1-711 display these population

changes in somewhat greater detail. They show

the percentage of the population in each age group

in every fifth year from 1950 to 2000 and the year

2010. By following the bars from left to right on

each graph one can trace the effects of the “baby

boom” of the post World War II era on each population group. The successive peaks in population—1960-70 for the 5 to 13 year olds; 1975-85

for the 18 to 24 year olds; 1990-2000 for the 35

to 44 year olds—are exhibited, as are the subsequent dramatic declines in the percentage shares

of the different groups following the “baby

boom, ” and the rather modest “baby boom echo”

of the early 1980s.

The groups of concern in this essay are the 18

to 24 year olds and the 25 to 34 year olds, the

two subpopulations that contribute in greatest

numbers to undergraduate and graduate enrollments. Therefore, it is worth looking at the demographic trends for these two subgroups in somewhat greater depth. Figure 1-812 presents the

population trends for 18 to 24 and 25 to 34 year

olds over the 1950-2010 time period. The figure

shows the dramatic increase in the former group

between 1955 and 1980, doubling from 15 to 30

million in that period. It shows as well the 23-

percent decline projected for the 1980-95 time

period, followed by an 18-percent increase between 1995 and 2010. For the 25 to 34 year old

group, there is a doubling in the 1965-90 time

frame followed by a decline of 16 percent between

1990 and 2000.

Each year about 300,000 college seniors, or 30

percent of the graduating class, receive their

bachelor’s degree in a science or engineering field.

1 llbid,, table F, P. 8.

Izhicj., table E, p. 7,
16

20

15

10

5

0

15

0

Figure l-6.— Population Distribution by Age, 1950-2010

Under 5 Ages 5-13

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Year

1985 1990 1995 2000 2010

—

1950

Ages 14-17 Ages 18-24

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Year

1990 1995 2000 2010

SOURCE Pro/ect/orts of the Population of the Urt/ted States, by Age, Sex arid Race 1983 to 2080, series P.25, No 952 (Washington, DC U S Department of

Commerce, Bureau of the Census, May 1984), table F, p 8.
17

Figure l-7.—Population Distribution by Age, 1950-2010

—

Ages 25-34

1950

I

(

1955

n Ages 35-44

1960 1970 1975 1980 1985

Year

_Ages 45-64 65and ove r

7950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

Year

1995 2000 2010

SOURCE Pro/ecf/ons of the Popu/at/on of the Un/fed Sfates, by Age, Sex and Race 1983 to 2080, series P.25, NO 952 (Washlnaton, DC U S D@ Dartment of

Commerce, Bureau of the Census, May 1984), table F, p 8
18

Figure l-8.— 18-24 Year Olds and 25-34 Year Olds

in the U.S. Population, 1950-2010

45,000

40,000

35,000

 25,00 0

.

c

 20,()()()

E

15,000

10,000

5,000

1950 1980 1970 198 0 1990 2000 2010

P P P

Year

NOTE: Figures fOr 1983 t02f110 are projected.

SOURCE ~ro/ect/onso!t~e~o~u/a//on of fhe Urr/fed Stafes, by,4ge, Sexarrd

f?ace 1983 to 2080, series P.25, No 952 (Washington, DC. U S

Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, May 1984), table E,

p 7

Figure 1-9.—Science/Engineering Bachelor’s

Number

Thousands

I

This overall level has remained nearly constant

for close to a decade, but there have been dramatic fluctuations among fields (see examples on

p. 21).13 Science and engineering masters degrees

have remained relatively constant in the 53,500

to 56,500 per year range since 1972, with social

science and engineering each accounting for more

than 25 percent of the total. The number of science

and engineering doctorates peaked at 19,000 in

1972 and has fluctuated between 17,000 and

18,000 a year since 1976. 14 (See figures 1-9, 1-10

and 1-11.15)

The relatively constant rate of production of

scientists and engineers over the past decade could

be significantly affected by the projected decline

in the college age population in the near future.

Labor market specialists estimate that the decrease

in 18 to 24 year olds discussed above could lead

to a drop in college enrollments of 12 to 16 percent between now and 1995. l6

— ---- — -— 1 JScience and Technology Resources, Op. Cit., Pp. 73-74.

14scjence and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview, NSF

85-302 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1985), pp.

154-156.

IsNational Patterns of Science and Technology Resources/ 19$4,

NSF 84-311 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1984),

pp. 29-30.

lbResearch Excellence Through the Year 2000 (Washington, DC:

National Research Council, Commission of Human Resources, 1979),

PP. 12-15; VVilliarn Bowen, Report of the President (Princeton, NJ:

Princeton University, April 1981), pp. 11-15.

First-Professional Degrees Awarded by Field

As a percent of all bachelor’s and first. professional degrees

Percent

1960 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82

Year

alncludes psychology

blncludes computer science

Clncludes enwronmenlal science

1960 62 64 66 66 70 72 74 76 78 80 82

Year

SOURCE National Science Foundation, tJatlofral ~at(ems of Science ad Technology Resources, NSF 84-311, 1984, PP 29 and 30
19

Figure 1.1O.– Science/Engineering Master’s Degrees by Field

Number As a percent of all master’s degrees

60

55

50

45

40

20

15

10

5

0

Mathematical sciences

Social sciences

 . I

c- 1 I

1960 62 64 66 88 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 1960 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82

Year Year

a

lncludes psychology

b

Includes computer science.

clnc(ude5 environmental science

SOURCE National Science Foundation, FJa(lofral Patterns of Sc)ence and Technology Resources. NSF 84-311 1984, pp 29 and 30

Figure l-ll.— Science/Engineering Doctorates Awarded by Field

Number As a percent of all doctoral degrees

.

1960 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 828 3 1960 6 2 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 828 3

Year Year

alncludes psychology

blncludes computer science

clncludes environmental ?.Clence

SOURCE National Science Foundation Naf/onal Pafferrrs 01 Sc/ence and Technology Resources NSF 84-311 1984 pp 29 and 30
20

In addition to these changes in the overall numbers, there will be qualitative changes in the student mix that could affect science and engineering. The percentage of minorities in the 18 to 24

year old cohort will increase from 20 to about 27

percent by 1998,17 so the increasing participation

of blacks, Hispanics, Asian Americans, and other

minorities in higher education that took place in

the 1970s (minority enrollments increased 86 percent from 1972 to 1982) can be expected to continue. (The decline in the rate of college enrollment among black high school graduates since

1978 casts some doubt on this prediction as it relates to the black community.) These groups, with

the exception of Asian Americans, have historically participated less actively in science and engineering education than the majority population.

The numbers of women, part-time students and

students in 2-year institutions all increased by

about 70 percent in the decade from 1972 to 1982,

approximately twice as rapidly as the overall increase in higher education enrollments .18 These

groups also participate in science and engineering education at lower rates than their white male

full-time counterparts at 4-year colleges and universities.

Assuming that science and engineering degrees

continue to represent no more than 29 to 30 percent of the total baccalaureates awarded in any

year, as they have since 1972, the decrease in the

18 to 24 year old population could lead to a decline in the number of bachelor’s level scientists

and engineers being produced by the Nation’s

——. —

“Statistical Abstract, 1985, op. cit., pp. 26-34.

18 Djge~t of Educatjon Statjstjcs, 1983-1984 (Washington, DC: ‘ational Center for Education Statistics, 1984), p. 98.

higher education system of a corresponding 15

percent by 1995. Similarly, the decline in 25 to

34 year olds projected for the 1990-2000 time

frame could lead to a possible decrease in the number of science and engineering doctorates produced in that time period. (The master’s degree

has considerably less meaning in science and engineering than it does in other fields, such as business, social work, and education, so it will not

be discussed at any length in this technical memorandum. )

To investigate the likelihood of this possible decline taking place, and its possible consequences

for the Nation’s scientific and technical enterprise,

OTA examined the historical record on the relationship between science and engineering degrees

and demographic trends and on the labor market for science and engineering baccalaureates and

Ph.D.s in industry and academia. OTA also reviewed recent projections of supply and demand

for scientists and engineers, consulted extensively

with scientific and engineering labor market

specialists and carried out a number of independent studies and simulations on its own. OTA’s

findings from its investigation of science and engineering personnel issues are presented below.

Findings 1 to 3 deal with population trends and

the education and employment of science and

engineering baccalaureates and Ph. D.s, Findings

4 to 6 deal with projections of supply and demand,

and the functioning of the labor market for technical personnel. Findings 7 to 10 examine the barriers to equality of opportunity in science and

engineering careers experienced by women and

some racial and ethnic minorities, and the special problems of foreign nationals in science and

engineering education and employment.

FINDINGS

Finding 1 in a science or engineering field. Less than 0.5 perPopulation trends, although important, do not

cent achieve the doctorate in one of those fields. 19

These very small percentages imply that changes have as great an impact on the supply of scientists and engineers as do career choices and marin the overall size of the age cohort should have

far less of an effect on the number of scientists

ket forces. and engineers produced in a given year than varLess than 7 percent of the members of a given -

“Science and Technology Resources, op. cit., pp. 74 and 78; Proage cohort currently receive a bachelor’s degree jections of the Population, op. cit., table 5, p. 38.
21

iations in the rate at which students choose to enter those fields. A slight increase in the rate of

selection of science and engineering careers among

college age students could more than compensate

for the decline in 18 to 24 year olds projected for

the 1982-95 time frame. For example, if the rate

of attainment of science and engineering bachelor’s degrees were to increase from the 1982 level

of 6.8 percent of the 22 year old population to

the 1973 level of 8.2 percent, 20 that would cause

a rise in the number of degrees awarded in these

fields of 20 percent.

Less than two-thirds of those receiving science

and engineering baccalaureates in recent years

have actually become part of the science and engineering work force. The National Science Foundation (NSF) conducted a survey of science and

engineering bachelor’s degree holders in 1982 to

determine the experience of the classes of 1980 and

1981 in making the transition from school to

work. It found that only 43 percent of the science

and engineering baccalaureates from those 2 years

were employed in a science or engineering field

a year or two later .2* An additional 21 percent

were enrolled in graduate school full time, although not necessarily in science or engineering.

Twenty-eight percent were employed outside of

science and engineering, 5 percent were unemployed and seeking employment, and 4 percent

were outside the labor force. Thus, less than twothirds of the 1980-81 science and engineering baccalaureates were actually in the science and engineering work force a year after graduation. This

percentage varied from a low of 43 percent in the

social sciences to a high of over 80 percent in engineering, computer science, and the physical sciences, with mathematics and the life sciences

directly in the middle, at 70 and 67 percent, respectively.

There is, moreover, no national market for

scientists and engineers as a group. Rather, there

are individual markets for graduates trained in

particular disciplines, and these markets and disciplines experience very different conditions at the

same time. For example, there is currently alleged

‘“Science and Engineering Degrees: 1950-1980, NSF 82-307 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1982), p, 60.

“National Patterns of Science& Technology Resources, 1984, op.

cit., p. 24,

to be an 8 percent vacancy rate in engineering

faculty positions at a time when new Ph. D.s in

sociology, mathematics, and other fields are having trouble finding university employment.22 NSF

projects that the demand for electrical and aeronautical engineers and for computer specialists

could exceed the supply of graduates in those

fields by as much as 30 percent over the 1981-87

time frame, while at the same time there will be

significantly fewer openings for biologists, chemists, geologists, physicists, mathematicians, chemical, civil, and mechanical engineers than there

will be trained degree holders .23 Nearly 28 percent of the science baccalaureate holders in 1981

obtained employment outside of science and engineering in the same year that 40 percent of the

firms responding to an NSF survey reported shortages of engineers. 24 Thus, it is individual dis -

ciplines, especially those linked with high growth

or defense-oriented industries, which could experience problems; not “science and engineering” as

a whole.

This finding is encouraging, because individual disciplines have shown great ability to grow

and shrink as market conditions require. The

number of engineering baccalaureates, for example, more than doubled between 1976 and 1984.25

The number of bachelor’s degrees in computer and

informational science tripled between 1977 and

1982. At the same time those in education, foreign languages, anthropology, history, and sociology all fell by 30 percent or more.26 Thus, college students appear to be highly responsive to

market signals, and appear to shift their career

choices dramatically toward fields that promise

greater occupational rewards.27 Engineering and

computer science have been highly marketable

.— jzM~chae] S, Mcl~herSon, “T’he State of Academic Labor Markets, ”

November 1984, draft, p. 5. TO be published in B.L, R. Smith (cd,},

The State of Graduate Education (Washington, DC: The Brookings

Institution, 1985).

“Projected Response of the Science, Engineering and Technical

Labor Market to Defense and Nondefense Needs: lQ82-1~87, NSF

84-204 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1984), p. 43.

~4Nationa] Patterns of Science and Technolog\~ Resources, 1 Q$4,

op. cit., p. 24.

ZSEngineering Education and Practice in the United States Washington, DC: National Research Council, 1985 ), p. 57; and ,Llanpowrer

Comments (Washington, DC: Scientific Manpower Commissionr

January-February 1985), p. 34.

2’McPherson, op. cit., table I.

‘

; Sue E. Berryman, in an exhaustive study of “The Adjustments

of Youth and Educational Institutions to Technology Generated
2 2

majors over the past 5 to 10 years, as measured

by the numbers of job offers and level of starting

salaries for bachelor’s degrees in those fields. Foreign languages, history, sociology, and anthropology, by contrast, are all fields that have experienced relatively weak job markets in the past

decade.

Finding 2

Levels of graduate enrollment and Ph.D. production in science and engineering appear to be

largely independent of general demographic

trends.

Between 1960 and 1970 the number of full-time

graduate science and engineering students enrolled

in U.S. institutions of higher education increased

150 percent, from 78,000 to 188,000.28 The number of science and engineering Ph.D.s awarded

increased 183 percent, from 6,300 in 1960 to

17,700 in 1970.

29 At the same time the population of 22 to 34 year olds—the group that supplies the majority of graduate students—increased

only 18 percent .30

Between 1970 and 1982 the situation changed

dramatically. Graduate enrollments in science and

engineering increased by only 36 percent; annual

doctorates awarded decreased by 1 percent, but

the graduate school age population increased by

more than 50 percent. Thus, there is no evidence

of a direct relationship between graduate enrolments and Ph. D.s in science and engineering, and

changes in the graduate school age population.

The dramatic expansion in Ph.D. production

and graduate enrollment in science and engineering that occurred in the 1960s was apparently related to four simultaneous developments. First,

Federal support for graduate education in general,

and science and engineering education in particular, grew enormously in that decade. The numChanges in Skill Requirements, ” Research Report Series, RR-85-08

(Washington, DC: National Commission for Employment Policy,

May 1985), finds that “young people generally are responsive to

changing market signals; they alter their fields of study, increase

or decrease the amount of time they spend on formal education,

and are very mobile both geographically and occupationally” (p. i,),

Z~Fa]lows, op. cit., p. 10.

‘gIbid., p. II.

jOStat;sfica/ Abstract of the United States, 1979 (Washington, DC:

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1979), pp.

160 and 29.

ber of Federal graduate fellowships and traineeships increased from 8,000, of which 5,000 were

in science and engineering in 1960, to 52,000, of

which 36,000 were in science and engineering in

1969. The number of research assistantships in

science and engineering increased from about

5,000 in 1954 to over 15,000 in 1969.31 At the same

time Federal support was expanding, State and

institutional aid to graduate education, especially

in the form of teaching assistantships, also increased dramatically, to more than 50,000 graduate students in 1969.32

In addition to increased Federal and State support for graduate education there was a third factor, a surging demand for Ph.D.s, especially in

academia, in that era. The number of junior

faculty openings exceeded the number of doctorates awarded by 50 percent (260,000 openings;

170,000 doctorates) between 1961 and 1970.33 (See

figure 1-12.34) In addition, the Federal research

JIFederal Interagency Committee on Education, “Report on Federal Predoctoral Student Support, ” April 1970, tables 1-10. R.G.

Snyder, “The Effectiveness of Federal Graduate Education Policy

and Programs in Promoting an Adequate Supply of Scientific Personnel, ” contractor report prepared for the Office of Technology

Assessment, June 1985, p. 14.

‘

z

Snyder, op. cit., p. 18.

J~Al]an Cartter, F’h .D. s and the Academic Labor Market (New

York: McGraw-Hill, 1976), p. 143.

341 bid., p. 129.

Figure l-12.—Comparison of Junior Faculty

Openings With Earned Doctorates Awarded

(actual 1948-73)

o

1950 1960 1970

Year

SOURCE Allan Cartter, PhD’s and the Academic Labor Market (New York:

McGraw. Hill, 1976), p 129
and development (R&D) budget quadrupled in

that decade, creating a sizable demand for doctoral scientists and engineers as researchers.

Finally, popular opposition to the Vietnam War

led many male college graduates to enroll in graduate school to avoid the draft.

In the 1970s, when the growth in academic demand and Federal R&D funding slowed, the military draft ended, and the level of Federal support for graduate fellowships and traineeships

decreased dramatically, Ph.D. production began

to fall. It fell most rapidly in those fields where

Federal fellowships and traineeships and R&D

funds declined most severely (i.e., engineering,

mathematical sciences, and physical sciences).

Finding 3

A combination of faculty and student demographics will lead to a weak academic market for

new Ph. D.s over the next decade, followed by an

upsurge in academic hiring between 1990s and

2010.

The projected decline in student enrollments

discussed above, coupled with a low retirement

rate among current faculty (most of whom were

hired in the late 1960s and will not retire until the

late 1990s), will lead to a very weak academic

market for new Ph. D.s in the next decade. This

decline was predicted by a number of scholars in

the 1970s, and has been confirmed by analyses

carried out this year by OTA and the National

Academy of Sciences. ” According to the OTA

analysis, the total academic demand for new

science and engineering doctoral degree recipients

should average about 3,000 to 6,000 per year from

1983 to 1998. This is less than one-third the annual number of new Ph. D.s projected for the

period under the assumption that such degrees will

remain constant at about 18,000 per year, and 40

to 80 percent of the rate of hiring for new science

and engineering Ph. D.s in academia that existed

in the 1978-83 time frame (about 8,000 new hires

per year). After 1998 the demand for new science

and-engineering faculty and research personnel

in academia should increase substantially, due to

increases in both enrollments and retirements.

‘

> National Research Council, Forecasting Demand for University}’

Scientists and Engineers: Proceedings ot a Workshop (Washington,

DC National Academy of Sciences, 1985), p. 1.

23

.

According to OTA analysis, the academic demand for new science and engineering Ph. D.s

could be roughly the same from 1998 to 2013 as

the level of hiring that took place during the 1970s.

The pattern of decline followed by increase will

be experienced separately over the next quarter

century by each of the major science and engineering fields. (See chapter 3 for the analysis that

supports these projections. )

The trends discussed above pose two significant

policy-related questions. First, should steps be

taken now to increase the demand for new Ph. D.s

during the decline decade of 1988 to 1998, in order to smooth out the hiring pattern over the next

quarter century and prevent potential graduate

students from becoming discouraged from pursuing a research career due to the weak near term

academic market? The National Institutes of

Health (NIH) system for training and supporting

biomedical research personnel appears to be an

example of a self-conscious and explicit Federal

personnel policy in an important scientific field

that could be emulated elsewhere. Consistent Federal support for biomedical research in terms of

funding of research and training has produced

both a substantial supply and demand for investigators. This has created a steady-state system

in which there have been no major shortages of

biomedical personnel, although some analysts believe there to be a surplus of biomedical Ph. D.s

today. However, it is a large system which would

be difficult to reduce in significant ways without

major dislocations.

Unlike most other fields of science, there is an

institutional feedback mechanism between NIH

and the Institute of Medicine (IOM) that ensures

a periodic assessment of the status of biomedical

research personnel. This represents, to some extent, informed decisionmaking in the implementation of research training programs. The current

number of trainees is quite close to the number

recommended by the IOM committee. Allocation

of Federal support to either predoctoral training

or postdoctoral training is a method of fine tuning that can potentially be used to control the supply of biomedical investigators. (See appendix A

for an in-depth analysis of Federal education and

manpower policies with respect to biomedical personnel. )
24

Second, in the expansion period of 1998-2013,

will the combined requirements of industry and

academia for science and engineering Ph. D.s exceed the annual supply? The number of science

and engineering Ph. D.s employed in industry has

grown at the rate of 8 percent per year over the

past decade.36 If this rate of growth continues, the

industrial demand for new science and engineering Ph. D.s could exceed 10,000 per year by the

first decade of the 21st century. The combined

academic and industrial demand for new science

and engineering Ph. D.s could then exceed the level

of Ph.D. production for that period.

Finding 4

Long-term projections of supply and demand

for scientists and engineers in the economy as a

whole are inherently unreliable.

Apart from academia, where known demographic trends exert considerable influence on the

demand for new faculty, long-term projections of

demand for scientists and engineers in the overall economy are fraught with uncertainty and are

relatively unreliable. Such projections depend on

assumptions about the future behavior of variables such as GNP growth, defense spending, technological change, and Federal and industrial R&D

expenditures, which themselves are not known

with any degree of certainty. Unexpected changes

in any of the input variables can cause major inaccuracies in the projections. For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects the requirements for different occupations 10 and 15 years

into the future, and provides an “early warning”

to high school and college students through its annual Occupational Outlook Handbooks, which

are distributed to guidance counselors. Labor

economist Lee Hansen took the projections made

by BLS in 1960 and 1965 for the number of engineers that would be required in different disciplines in 1975 and 1980, and compared them

with the actual numbers that were employed in

those years. 37 He found that BLS overprotected

the requirements for aeronautical, civil, and mechanical engineers by 20 to 55 percent. The errors were caused by the understandable failure of

“Characteristics of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers in the United

States, NSF 85-303 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation,

1985), table 2, pp viii and ix.

“labor ,$l~rhet Conditions” for Engineers: 1s There a Shortage?

(Washington, DC: National Research Council, 1Q84), pp. 8Q92.

the BLS to anticipate the cutback in Federal R&D

expenditures in the early 1970s and the recession

in the mid-1970s. However, the BLS overprojections would have lead analysts to overestimate

the growth component of the annual demand for

engineers between the early 1960s and the late

1970s by 120 to 600 percent.

Projections of supply are equally problematic.

It is extremely difficult to predict the career choices

of undergraduates or graduate students, or their

responsiveness to changes in demand in technical fields. In the absence of such a predictive capability, analysts in the past tended to assume the

continuation of existing trends, an assumption

which can lead to gross inaccuracies. For example, in 1967 NSF, extrapolating from existing

trends, projected there would be 30,500 doctorates

awarded in science and engineering in 1975.38 The

actual number turned out to be 17,784. A large

number of scientific “manpower” analysts in the

late 1960s and early 1970s made similar errors for

the same reasons. In the absence of a causal model

that can accurately predict changes in career selection patterns, any supply projections are no better than educated guesses.

Given the problems of projecting supply and

demand, predictions of shortages or surpluses

based on such projections are not likely to be very

reliable. This is not, however, a serious problem,

for reasons that are discussed in the next two

findings,

Finding 5

Labor markets adjust to supply-demand gaps.

Most projections of shortages assume tacitly

that demand and supply are independent, so that

there can be no adjustment to projected supplydemand gaps. This assumption makes sense, however, only under certain very restrictive conditions:

1. that demand for the final product is relatively unaffected by labor costs;

2. that supply is not appreciably affected by

wage changes; and

3. that the skill shortages are unique, in that

workers possessing them cannot be replaced

— —

‘“The Prospective Afanpower Situation for Science and Engineering

Staff in llni~ersities and Co/leges: 1965-1Q75 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1967), p. 16,
25

by workers from other occupations or by

new technology.

If any of these conditions are violated, then a projected supply-demand gap can be closed by market adjustment. These conditions are very restrictive: They apply to only a few limited sectors,

such as some parts of the defense industry and

certain startup firms that require highly specialized personnel.

The essence of a labor market is that it adjusts.

A projected gap between supply and demand usually does not indicate an impending shortage, but

rather that some sort of adjustment must take

place. The adjustment can be made either by employees or employers, or both. On the employees’ side, an increasing number of entry level

professionals can become trained in the shortage

area, or experienced workers from neighboring

specialties can move into the shortage occupation.

On the employers’ side, they can offer higher salaries; increase their search and recruiting efforts;

rearrange jobs to utilize the available skills, education, and experience more efficiently; or make

larger investments in internal training and retraining of their existing work force. Cutting back output, or the level of research and development, due

to personnel shortages is probably the response

of last resort.

Labor market and scientific “manpower” specialists consulted by OTA agreed that it is more

important to try to understand the process of adjustment of the technical labor market to supplydemand imbalances than it is to make long-term

projections. There can be significant problems

with labor market adjustments that need to be understood by policymakers. For example, although

students shift their career interests to follow signals from the marketplace, as we have seen above,

this response is not a short-term remedy to a

supply-demand gap because it takes 4 years to

train a new engineer and 6 years (from the baccalaureate) to train a Ph.D. scientist. In a fastmoving market, the needs of employers may

change by the time entering students graduate.

This lag effect is especially powerful for occupations that are subject to sudden unanticipated

surges in demand, as in the semiconductor and

computer industries in recent years. In addition,

universities may not be able to provide sufficient

resources to meet new demands on their curricula, as has recently been the case in engineering.

Both universities and students may misjudge the

direction of the marketplace, leading to further

misallocation of resources.

Occupational mobility from related fields is the

short-term response to a shortage. The primary

concern about occupational mobility from the employer’s point of view is that it may lower the

quality of work or require expensive retraining.

From a societal point of view, however, occupational mobility appears to have served the Nation well in meeting its needs for technical personnel. The Manhattan project in World War II,

the Apollo program in the 1960s, the environmental and energy programs of the 1970s, and the

rapid buildup of the semiconductor and computer

industries all relied successfully on the importation of scientific and technical talent from related

fields. Many analysts consider the mobility and

adaptability of the Nation’s scientific and engineering work force to be one of its greatest

strengths.

Employer adjustments, such as extensive searches

and retraining of personnel from related fields,

involve considerable costs. For example, one analyst estimates that the cost of recruiting a new

engineer can run as high as 1 year’s salary. Rearrangement of jobs within the firm can interfere

with the distribution of incentives via rank and

promotion. Despite these costs, several of the

more mature computer companies, such as Data

General Corp. and Digital Equipment Corp., have

adopted systematic training approaches, Faced

with a continuing series of shortages, they have

shifted from their traditional “buy” to a “make”

strategy for obtaining skilled personnel. This helps

lower the turnover rate and increases the supply

of experienced engineers, who are in short supply.

Finding 6

The Federal role in alleviating potential shortages of technical personnel appears limited to

assistance for education and retraining.

OTA carried out an analysis of the labor market in electrical engineering, a profession that has

experienced reported shortages in the recent past,

is heavily involved in areas of rapid technological change, and faces demand from both the military and civilian sectors of the economy. OTA

52-647 0 - 85 - 2 (QL 3)
26

found that the supply of entry level electrical engineers is likely to stay nearly in balance with demand for the foreseeable future, as occupational

mobility makes up the difference between the

number of entry level engineers needed and the

number of college graduates actually holding electrical engineering degrees. However, some educational institutions report that they do not have

sufficient resources to train all the potential electrical engineering students who are interested.

The spot shortages of experienced engineers

with specific areas of expertise reported in surveys of electronics and computer firms in the recent past will undoubtedly continue. When a particular technology gets “hot,” engineers who know

the field and can handle the overall design of a

project are in great demand. If the technology is

new or has not been used extensively in the past,

the supply of engineers who combine these attributes can fall short of demand. Unfortunately,

these shortages are not of a type amenable to government intervention. The government might be

able to help by promoting the retraining of experienced engineers into new startup fields. Mission-agency sponsored R&D programs could conceivably serve that retraining function. The

Federal energy and environment programs of the

1970s, for example, helped retrain significant

numbers of engineers to become specialists in

those two fields.

As to the effects of increased military spending on the market for electrical engineers, OTA

did not find this to be a significant cause for concern. The most definitive short-term projections

by NSF39 indicate that a shift from low to high

defense spending would only increase the demand

for electrical engineers by 4 to 5 percent, turning

a slight shortage into a slightly larger one. In a

survey of firms that employ electrical engineers

in the Boston area, OTA found that shortages are

not perceived to vary much by the level of military procurements. Many respondents felt that the

two climates of military and civilian work are so

very different that there is low mobility between

the two “sectors. ”

‘projected Response of the Science, Engineering and Technical

Labor Market to Defense and IVondefense Needs: 1982-1987, op.

cit., p. 43.

Finding 7

Near-term demographic trends enhance the importance of promoting equality of access to scientific and engineering careers for women and disadvantaged minorities.

The Science Policy Task Force recommended

that the study of demographics and the science

and engineering work force also examine issues

related to the participation of women and minorities in science and engineering careers, with special attention paid to the identification of barriers

to participation and means of lowering those barriers.’” OTA finds that the changing college student demographics of the coming decade have

several important implications for national policy to promote equality of opportunity in science

and engineering. Since the number of college graduates will decline substantially, it becomes especially important to utilize all potential human resources to the fullest extent possible. This means

that increasing attention should be paid to those

groups with historically low participation rates

in science and engineering, such as women and

some minorities. The increasing fraction of college students that will be drawn from the black

and Hispanic populations, which have historically

participated in science and engineering education

and employment at far lower rates than the white

population, imply that programs aimed at increasing the participation of these two minority groups

could be an especially important source of new

talent.

Finding 8

Gender-stereotyped career expectations and

differential treatment of women scientists in the

work force are the two major factors discouraging women from entering science and engineering.

The literature on the factors that discourage

women from participating in science and engineering careers is extensive and well developed. Two

factors stand out as crucial. These are genderstereotyped career expectations among younger

women entering the science and engineering tal-

“OAn Agenda for a Study of Government Science Policy, op. cit.,

p. 31.
27

ent pool, and differential treatment of women

scientists and engineers in the work force.

Gender-stereotyped career expectations are

manifested most dramatically in the major field

preferences of college freshmen, where 20 percent

of the men, but only 3 percent of the women surveyed in 1984 listed engineering as their field of

choice, ” By contrast, only 4 percent of the men,

but 21 percent of the women, listed education,

nursing, or occupational and physical therapy as

their preferred major. In other sciences, women

were more likely to select a social or biological

science major than men, and slightly less likely

to be interested in the physical sciences. These

differences are often explained as the result of

women’s alleged lower preference for or lesser

ability in quantitative fields. But the fact that

freshmen women select mathematics, accounting,

and business at the same rate as men casts doubt

on that explanation. Rather, it appears that fields

that are heavily associated with “men’s work” tend

to be avoided by women, just as fields that are

stereotypically associated with women are avoided

by men.

A second aspect of gender-stereotyped career

planning has to do with girls’ expectations of how

they will be able to allocate their time during

adulthood between participation in the labor force

and work in the home. Sue Berry man finds that

“the more that girls expect continuous labor force

participation during adulthood, the more their occupational goals approximate those of their male

counterparts. ” She also finds that “since career

goals seem to determine educational investments,

gender differences in occupational expectations

become key to understanding gender differences

in high school mathematics participation, “42 a key

element in pursuing a science or engineering career. These expectations are in fact derivative of

gender stereotyping in the work force as a whole.

In our society women are still expected to assume

the major role in housekeeping and child rearing,

and to sacrifice their professional interests to those

— — $1 A \$’ A~tl n ~,f ~],, Tb~ ~~prjc.]~ Freshman .“ ~~’dtlor?ai ,\’OHTJS . ,

for F,I1l 1Q$4 ( 1.c15 ,~ngele~, CA: Cmlperatlt’e institutional Research

Program Unit’er>ity ot Cal]t(>rnia at I.CM An~eles, December 1Q84),

pp. 10-18, 32-34

‘

: Sue E. Berry ’man, “Nlin(~rit]e\ and \\’(>men in Nlathematlcs anLj

science \\’h[~ Ch(>oscs Thew Fields and \$’h}r?” Nla>’ 1Q85, t}pe-

\crlpt, p, 14

of their husband. As long as that situation exists,

women will be less likely than men to select occupations like science and engineering that require

major educational and labor force commitments.

Berry man finds, interestingly enough, that male

single parents “make occupational and labor force

adaptations to parenting that look like the occupational and labor force plans of girls who expect

dual family and work responsibilities. ’43

Women’s experience in the science and engineering work force is decidedly different from that

of men. Women’s attrition rates are 50 percent

higher than men’s: in 1982, 25 percent of women

scientists and engineers but only 16 percent of men

were outside of the science and engineering work

force .44 Women’s unemployment rates are significantly higher: 4.5 percent v. 1.9 percent for men.

Women’s salaries are significantly lower than

men’s in almost all fields of science, in every employment sector and at comparable levels of experience, although recent female entrants to the

science and engineering work force are doing considerably better than their more senior counterparts. In academia, men are far more likely than

women to hold tenure track positions, to be

promoted to tenure, and to achieve full professorships, This holds true even for men and women

of identical academic age (number of years since

receiving the doctorate), field, and quality of graduate school attended. 45

The differential treatment of women in the

work force most directly violates the principal of

equality of opportunity because it affects people

who have established, by virtue of obtaining an

advanced degree, the right to pursue a scientific

or engineering career based solely on the quality

of their work. It also has a significant effect on

female students in the educational pipeline. A

woman student in a department where no women

have been hired or promoted to tenure is not likely

to form a positive picture of her future employment prospects. Nor will she experience the kind

of role model which the literature on equality of

-.

~llbiti,- -

“Ibid,, p, 7.

4 ~ F(, r detai]s see [ j’omen dnd ,tl)norit]es in Science dn~~ ~n~’in~er-

]ng ( \\’a\hingt(}n, DC: National Science Foundation, lanuary 1084 ~

and C~reer Outcomes in .] ,11,] tched S2mple (~t ,1 [en .~nd [ 1‘omen

I’h, D s (\ Vashlngtc]n, DC Natl(~n.~1 Research Council, 1Q81 ~
28

-. —

opportunity suggests is desirable to assist her in

identifying with her future profession. Finally, the

higher unemployment and attrition rates among

women in science and engineering as compared

to men represent a serious waste of human resources cultivated at considerable expense to the

Nation and the individual.

Finding 9

Blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians are

affected by a variety of socioeconomic factors that

lead to poor academic performance and an inability to remain in the science and engineering

educational “pipeline. ”

Blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians receive degrees in quantitative fields at less than half

the rate of whites, due to their tendency both to

participate in higher education and to select quantitative fields at substantially lower rates.46 The

quality of academic preparedness in secondary

schools is cited by many experts as the greatest

factor affecting these minorities’ academic performance and baccalaureate attainment in college.

Greater attrition levels in science and engineering among minorities correlate very highly with

poor academic preparedness in high school as

measured by grade averages and class rank. Problems with academic preparedness, in turn, appear

to be related to socioeconomic factors such as parents’ educational levels and social class. -

Parents’ education appears to be an especially

important factor. Students whose parents have

obtained college or graduate degrees are more

often enrolled in quantitative majors than students

who have less well-educated parents. Sue Berryman finds that “being second generation college

not only increases, but also equalizes, the choices

of quantitative majors across white, black, American Indian, Chicano, and Puerto Rican college

freshmen.’’” A study carried out for the Departments of Defense and Labor in 1980 found that

the strongest single predictor of reading abilities

and scores on the Armed Forces Qualifications

Test was the mother’s educational level .48 Youths —— -... J,&~~Y-~a~, c}p. cit., pP. 2-3.

~ “Ib]d ;, p . 17,

‘“Betty M. Vetter, “The Emerging Demographics—Effect on National Policy in Education and on a Changing Work Force, ” back-

~r(~und paper prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment,

pp. 4-5.

whose mothers had completed eighth grade or less

scored in the 29th percentile on the AFQTs. Those

whose mothers had completed high school had

an average percentile score of 54. Those whose

mothers were college graduates averaged 71.

Social class, according to Sue Berryman, “seems

to be a proxy for family characteristics that affect school achievement.” These characteristics include “the family’s press for achievement, language models in the home, academic guidance

provided by the home, ” work habits and activities of the family, and the “nature and quality of

toys, games, and hobbies available to the child. ”49

These characteristics correlate very highly with

children’s achievement scores. Later in life, social

class correlates strongly with the level of resources

a college student can bring to bear on his or her

education. Financial problems in college are a factor cited by many analysts in explaining the poor

persistence of minorities in the scientific and engineering educational system.

Despite the formidable socioeconomic problems

responsible for the low participation rates in

science and engineering among blacks, Hispanics,

and American Indians, there is considerable anecdotal evidence that well-designed intervention

programs can assist these groups in obtaining access to science and engineering careers. The American Association for the Advancement of Science,

in an assessment of more than 100 such programs,

found them to “have demonstrated that there are

no inherent barriers to the successful participation of women and minorities in science or mathematics” if these groups are provided with “early,

excellent, and sustained instruction in these academic areas. ”50 These programs heIp stimulate an

interest in science and engineering among talented

students who might never have considered a career in one of those fields. They also provide supplementary instruction in science and mathematics

to help improve the academic preparedness of

those students who choose to major in a quantitative field. To date, programs for minorities

have not been rigorously and systematically

evaluated to determine the ingredients of success

and failure. (Programs for women appear to have

-—- —— d* Berryman, Op. Cit., P, 15”

‘“Shirley M, Malcom, Equity and Excellence: Compatible Goals,

Publication 94-14 (Washington, DC: American Association for the

Advancement of Science, December 1984), p, viii.
2 9

been more carefully studied. ) Nor has any attempt

been made on the national level to share the lessons learned from successful programs with less

fortunate endeavors. NSF could take a leadership

role in this area, but thus far it has not done so.

In fact, the executive branch’s response to the

mandate it received from Congress in 1980 to develop a comprehensive program to promote the

participation of women and minorities in science

and engineering was to cut back or eliminate the

few programs in existence in that era. 51

Despite the problems cited above, women’s participation in science and engineering has increased

dramatically in all fields and at all levels. There

appear to be no inherent reasons why these increases should not continue. For blacks and Hispanics the causes of low participation are so

deeply entwined with larger social and cultural

factors that the prospects for further improvements without dramatic societal intervention do

not appear very bright. Already the rate of increase in participation among these groups has

slowed significantly since the dramatic improvements of the mid-1970s.

Finding 10

The increasing participation of foreign nationals

in U.S. Science and engineering education has

raised a number of unresolved policy issues.

The number of foreign nationals enrolled in

American institutions of higher education has increased by a factor of 10 in the past three decades, from 34,000, or 1.4 percent of the student

population in 1954, to 338,000, or 2.7 percent of

the student population, in 1984.57 Foreign students

‘

] The National Science Foundation Authc)rization and Science and

Technology Equal Opportunities Act of 1Q80 (Public Law o6-51tI,

Q4 Stat, 3007) required the D]rector of NSF to prepare and transmit

to C“ongress “a report prop[)sing a comprehensive and continuing

program at the F(lundat][)n to promote the full participation of minorities In sc]ence and technology” (Sect ion 34b 1. The NSF response

to this requirement, ‘Proposals of the National Science Foundation

to I>romote the Full I)articlpatlcln 01 Nl]nor-it ies and \f’omen In

Science and Engineering, ” Dec. 15, 1Q81, typescript provided b>’

Natl[)nal Science Foundation, c(>ntains the t(lllowing quote:

The I-c}und,]t lt>n \ autht~rlzln~ lcgl~lati[~n tt~r tl<~al >car 108 I ~r(,-

\. Ided tor w,~,cral progr.] ms t h,] t addrt+wl the part I( I pa t ton (~t m I n(~rIt IV, and m onlcn In sc Ienc e and tt,( hn[)lo~~. T hew pro~rams ii ere rw

duc cd b\, rcw ts~l[~n~ In t IW al }“t>ar 108 I and J,, cre deleted t rx!rn t ht,

Foundat lt~n s budget rtqut+t t,~r f]w al tt,ar 1082 a< part t~t [ht Adn~lnl~t r<] t Ion \ pr[)~ram I(>r U( )nonl I( rtx ovt,r~,

TM () rvp(~rts rt’qulrtd (Jt tht, Prt+ldcnt h; k t Ion .35 (~t 1’ubl Ic 1.IIV

~0 5 I o ttt,r(, nt, ~ t,r t r<lnsm [t t(, d t (1 C ( ~n~rt,~s

‘120p~rr II(lors: IW.? 84 ~h’eti )’orh Institute ot International EdLIcatlon, 1 Q84 ), table 1.3 p o.

tend to enroll proportionately more often in engineering and medical sciences than in humanities

and social sciences. This has been attributed to

the relatively high cost to a developing country

of establishing proper training facilities for the

engineering and natural science disciplines. A projected increase of 350,000 or more foreign college

students over the next decade53 could compensate

to some degree for the expected decline in American 18 to 24 year olds,

Foreign nationals have assumed a large share

of both enrollments and doctoral degrees in graduate departments of engineering, mathematics,

and computer science (more than 40 percent of

enrollments and degrees in engineering; 40 percent of enrollments and 25 percent of degrees in

mathematics). There is concern that because

science and engineering education is capital intensive, and many science and engineering graduate

students are supported by Federal research assistantships, that the United States is subsidizing

the training of non-U. S. citizens. However, it appears that many graduate engineering departments would have had to curtail their research

and teaching activities substantially without foreign student enrollments. Moreover, analysts

Lewis Solmon and Ruth Beddow have found, in

a study of 1980-81 foreign degree recipients at the

bachelor’s, master’s, and Ph.D. levels, that “foreign students probably pay more than their education costs, and they might be paying substantially more. ”54 Some also argue that there are

foreign policy and good will benefits to U.S. education of foreign citizens. The U.S. Agency for

International Development recently announced

that it would increase its scholarship support to

Latin American students in order to counter Soviet leadership in this area; this may be seen as

evidence for this point of view.

There is disagreement between various groups

within the United States as to whether individuals admitted to the United States as students who

complete a graduate degree here should be allowed to remain here after completion of the

degree and perhaps a short period of further training. Increasing proportions of those earning doc-

—

~4æ•T4æ•S ‘Foreign Student F/OItK (New York. Institute of International Educat]c)n, 1Q851, pp. 78-7Q.

q I.ew is C, Sol m{)n and Ruth Bedcto\\., ‘ Flows, C(l+t\ and Benc’-

tits ot Foreign Students in the United States Dc) \l’e 1 Iat’e a I)r~)bIem }“oreign SfudtJnt Fl(~IIs ~)p. c It., pp. 121- I 22.
30 —

torate degrees (56 percent in 1983) are remaining

in the country after graduation. 55 Many employers,

both in industry and in academic institutions, say

that they cannot fill certain research and faculty

positions with U.S. citizens, and available data

verify this.56 The Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, on the other hand, contends that

increasing numbers of foreign engineers earning

degrees in this country are taking jobs at low pay

in order to remain here, thus driving down salaries and reducing opportunities for U.S. engineers. 57 The limited statistical evidence that exists, however, indicates that foreign engineers are

not paid less than comparably trained and experienced U.S. engineers .58

Many foreign nationals choose to enter the academic market after graduation, especially in engineering. A 1982 survey found that 18 percent of

——— -—..- . .

“Participation of Foreign Citizens in U.S. Science and Engineering (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, January 1985),

p. v,

“Betty Vetter, “U.S. Education and Utilization of Foreign Scientists and Engineers, ” contractor report prepared for the Office of

Technology Assessment, p. 16.

“See statement of Jack Doyle, Institute of Electrical Electronic

Engineers, in Scientific Manpower Commission, “The International

Flow of Scientific Talent: Data, Policies and Issues, ” May 7, 1985,

p. 29.

‘HMichael G. Finn, “Foreign National Scientists and Engineers in

the U.S. Labor Force, 1972 -1982,” draft report to the National

Science Foundation, March 1985.

all full-time engineering faculty members earned

their B.S. degrees from an institution outside the

United States. Several authors have made reference to a “growing problem” of foreign nationals

on engineering faculties. Analysts contend that

the drawbacks of an increasingly foreign born

faculty are the limitations in their communications

skills and difficulties they may have in adjusting

their teaching and research styles to the expectations of American culture. 59

Foreign nationals are often unable to work on

industr y or government projects with national

security or economic competitiveness implications, However, those students that obtain positions in industry after graduation can and often

do become U.S. citizens and thereby cease to be

“foreign nationals. ”

Finally, some analysts contend that a lack of

data prevents the Nation from making informed

policy decisions in this area. However, there is

a great deal of information about foreign students

available from the Institute of International Education, and several new research projects sponsored by NSF promise to fill many of the gaps.

What is most lacking is a consensus over the definition of the “problem. ”

“The International Flow of Scientific and Trchnical Taient, op. cit.
Chapter 2

Demographic Trends:

Undergraduate and

Graduate Education
Contents

Page

The Changing Composition of the Undergraduate Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Baccalaureates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

Future Trends: Demographics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

Implications for Science and Engineering Personnel and Education Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Graduation Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Federal Support for Graduate Education in Science and Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

The Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

List of Tables

Table No. Page

2-1. Full-Time Equivalent Enrollments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

2-2. Transition of 1980 and 1981 Science/Engineering Graduates From School to

Work in 1982... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

2-3. Percent of S/E Doctoral Recipients Who Were Foreign Nationals on

Temporary Visas, Selected Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

2-4. Distribution of Primary Sources of Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering

Graduate Students in Doctorate-Granting Departments, Selected Years . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

2-5. Federal Predoctoral Fellowships and Traineeships by Field, Fiscal Years 1961-75 . . . . 48

2-6. Full-Time Graduate Students in Doctorate-Granting Institutions Supported by the

Federal Government by Broad Field, Selected Years... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49

List of Figure s

Figure No, Page

2-1. Bachelor’s Degrees Conferred in Selected Fields: United States,

1965-66 to 1980-81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

2-2. Bachelor’s and First-Professional Degrees in Science and Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

2-3. Projected Full-Time Equivalent Students in Higher Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

2-4. Minority Enrollment As Percent of Public Elementary/Secondary School

Enrollment, by State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

2-5. Projected Changes in Graduates, by State, 1981-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

2-6. Full-Time Graduate Enrollments in Science/Engineering at U.S. Institutions,

by Field and by Year, 1960-83 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

2-7. Number of Doctorates Awarded by U.S. Institutions, by Field and by Year,

1958-83 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

2-8. Doctorate Degrees in Science and Engineering by Field and by Year, 1958-83 . . . . . 43

2-9. Percent of S/E Ph.D.s Earned by Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

2-10. Federal Predoctoral Fellowships and Traineeships by Field, Fiscal Years 1961-75 . . . 47

2-11. Full-Time Graduate Students in Doctorate-Granting Institutions Supported by

the Federal Government by Broad Field, Selected Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

2-12. Doctorates Awarded . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

2-13. Full-Time Graduate Enrollment by Area of Science/Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

2-14. Trends in Doctor’s Degrees Conferred, by Sex of Recipient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Chapter 2

Demographic Trends:

Undergraduate and Graduate Education

THE CHANGING COMPOSITION OF THE

UNDERGRADUATE POPULATION

Significant changes in the size, composition,

and career interests of the undergraduate population have characterized the past quarter century

of American higher education. Demographic and

other trends indicate that similar changes, although not as rapid or extreme, will also mark

the next 20 to 30 years. Since the baccalaureate

is the entry-level degree to a scientific or engineering career, the composition of the undergraduate

population can be expected to have a significant

effect on the size and make-up of the science and

engineering work force. This section will examine the changing demographic and career patterns

of the undergraduate population and discuss the

implications of the trends for the size and quality of the scientific and engineering work force.

The explosion in higher education that took

place in the 1960s saw undergraduate enrollments

increase by 120 percent, from 3.3 million in 1960

to 7.4 million in 1970.

1 This sizable change was

caused only in part by demographics. The number of 18 to 24 year olds, who constituted about

70 percent of the college population, z also increased over the decade, but at a substantially

lower rate of about 54 percent.3 Close to half of

the increase in enrollment in the 1960s was caused

by an increase in the rate at which high school

graduates chose to participate in higher education.

In 1960 only 23.7 percent of the 18 to 24 year olds

that graduated from high school were enrolled in

college: by 1970 that ratio had increased to 32.7

percent, where it remains today.4

In the 1970s, undergraduate enrollments increased by 47 percent (from 7.4 million in 1970

‘Statistical Abstract, 2982-1983 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1984), p. 159, corrected

to include unclassified pre-baccalaureates; and The Condition of Education ( \\’ashington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics,

1985), p. 98.

‘The Condition of Education (Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, 1984 ), p. 72.

‘Projections of the Population (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1984), p. 7.

to 10.9 million in 1983),5 but the population of

18 to 24 year olds only increased 22 percent. Most

of the new college students were adults 25 years

and older who doubled their participation in

higher education as a whole (including graduate

school) in that period. More than 70 percent of

the new over-25 group were adult women, whose

enrollment in higher education more than tripled

between 1970 and 1983. ’ The overall share of

women in higher education increased from 41.2

percent in 1970 to 51.7 percent in 1983.7 Blacks

increased from 6.9 percent of the higher education population in 1970 to 10.6 percent in 1978,

but then fell back to 9.6 percent in 1982. Hispanics

increased from 2.0 to 4.4 percent between 1970

and 1982; Asian Americans from 1.0 to 2.7 percent.8

In sum, from 1960 to 1983, the number of undergraduates increased by a factor of 3.3, from

3.3 to 10.9 million. About 60 percent of that

change was due to demographics: a 1.9-fold increase in the number of 18 to 24 year olds. The

remainder was caused by an increase in the rate

at which high school graduates, especially adult

women and minorities, chose to participate in

higher education. These enrollment trends tended

to favor public over private institutions and 2-

year colleges over 4-year colleges. Enrollments in

public institutions increased by a factor of 4.2

(from 2.3 to 9.7 million) in the 23-year period;

enrollments in 2-year colleges increased more than

sevenfold (from 650,000 to 4.7 million). 9

——. —

‘Statistical Abstract (Washington, DC: U.S. Department ot

Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1985), p. 149.

‘Condition O} Education, op. cit., 1985, p. 79.

‘Ibid,

71bid., table 2.4, p. 94.

‘Statistical Abstract, op. cit., 1985, p. 152.

‘Statistical Abstract, 1982-83, op. cit., p. 159, corrected to include non-degree credit students; and Condition of Education, op.

cit., 1985, p. 79.

33
34

—

BACCALAUREATES

The doubling in the enrollment of undergraduates in the 1960s was accompanied by a doubling

in the number of bachelor’s degrees awarded in

the course of the decade. In 1960, 395,000 students received B.A.s and B.S.s from the Nation’s

colleges and universities; by 1970 that number had

increased by 112 percent to 840,000.10

The 1970s saw a very different pattern. Although the number of undergraduates increased

by 47 percent between 1970 and 1983, the number of baccalaureates only increased by 16 percent (from 840,000 to 970,000). 11 The number of

awards below the bachelor’s degree granted in occupational curricula (business and commerce technologies, data processing technologies, health

services and paramedical technologies, mechani10Statistica~ Abstract, 19,79 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department

of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1979) p. 168; Condition o f

Education, op. cit., 1985, p. 90.

‘ ‘condition of Education, op. cit., 1985, p. 90.

u

- l

l

l

.

cal, engineering, and electronic technologies) increased 160 percent (from 154,000 to 400,000).12

Thus baccalaureates decreased from 84.5 to 70.4

percent of the total undergraduate degrees awarded

in the 1971-82 time frame.

The trend toward occupationally oriented degrees

is mirrored by the changing mix of fields within

the baccalaureate in the 1970s. As figure 2-1

shows, the number of bachelor’s degrees in jobrelated fields, especially business and management, increased dramatically in the 1970s, while

arts and sciences degrees declined substantially. *3

According to the National Center for Education

Statistics (NCES):14

IZSue E. Berryman, “The Adjustment of Youth and Educational

Institutions to Technologically-Generated Changes in Skill Requiremerits, ” prepared for the National Commission for Employment Policy, May 1985, pp. 30 and 31.

I ~Diges~ ~~ ~~ucation Statistics, 1983-1984 (Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, December 1983), p. 11~,

141 bid., p. 118.

Figure 2-l.— Bachelor’s Degrees Conferred in Selected Fields: United States, 1965-66 to 1980-81

Arts and sciences Job-related fields

$ ,

1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81

Year

1965-66 1970-71 1975-76 1980-81

Year

SOURCE U S Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digesr of Educaf/on .Sfat/st/cs, 1983-84, p 119
In 1965-66 degrees in English and literature, history, mathematics, modern foreign languages,

and physics constituted 20.4 percent of all bachelor’s degrees conferred . . . . by 1980-81 they

had declined to 7.4 percent of the total . . . .

In 1965-66 degrees in business and management, engineering, the health professions, public

affairs and services, and computer and information sciences comprised 22.6 percent of the total

bachelor’s degrees conferred . . . . in 1980-81

[they were] 41.8 percent . . . .

At least one occupationally oriented field has

not participated in the general rise in recent years.

Bachelor’s degrees in education . . . peaked at

194,000 in 1972-73 and subsequently declined by

44.3 percent to 108,000 in 1980-81. There has been

an annual decrease in public school enrollments

for a decade, and this has adversely affected the

demand for new elementary and secondary school

teachers.

At first glance it appears that science and engineering fields have been immune from these striking changes in undergraduate career preferences.

According to the National Science Foundation

(NSF), science and engineering fields represented

approximately 30 percent of the bachelor’s and

first professional degrees awarded every year from

1952 to 1982. In no year have they exceeded 32

percent or fallen short of 28 percent. (Unfortunately, the NSF tables and charts include first

professional degrees, such as the M. D., D.D.S.

D.V.M, and J. D., with bachelor’s degrees, so the

numbers are not strictly comparable to those presented above. ) The total number of science and

engineering bachelor’s degrees and first professional degrees has remained within the 280,000

to 305,000 range since 1972.

This apparent constancy, however, masks some

striking changes taking place within and between

fields (see figure 2-2). From 1960 to 1974 the percentage of total B.A. s and first professional

degrees awarded in the physical sciences and engineering fell from 4.1 and 9.6 percent, respectively,

~ ‘Science and Engineering I’ersmnel: A Natimal Ot’er~’iew’, NSF

85-302 ~~t’ash]ngton, DC. National Science Foundation, 1~85 ), p.

154.

35

Figure 2.2.— Bachelor’s and First-Professional

Degrees in Science and Engineering

300

E

Total science 0 - \

and engineering -_D-* -

280

260

240 

220

200 , /

180 Social sciences

160 \

100 -

 Mathematical Life sciences

80 “ sciences

60

40

20

0

1965 1970 1975 1980 1982

Year

SOURCE Nat{onal Science Foundation. Scfence and Technolocrv Resources,

NSF 85-305, 1985 p 73

to 2.1 and 4.3 percent. That decline was accompanied by an increase in the percentage of degrees

awarded in the social sciences from 8.0 to 14.4

percent. Between 1974 and 1982 the trend reversed

itself, and engineering degrees increased from 4.3

to 6.5 percent of the total, while social science

degrees fell from 14.4 to 10.9 percent. ”

Science and engineering baccalaureates, therefore, appear to follow the same trends as total baccalaureates; increasing with total college enrollments through the 1960s and then going up only

very gradually in the 1970s and early 1980s. Individual fields, however, follow changes in undergraduate interests, such as the shift from the

natural sciences to the social sciences in the 1960s

and from academic subjects to job-oriented subjects in the 1970s. It is a combination of demographic forces and career and educational choices

(strongly influenced by market considerations)

that determines the number of bachelor’s degrees

that will be produced in a science or engineering

field in a given year.

‘

b Ibid.
36

According

FUTURE TRENDS:

to demographer Harold Hodgkinson, three major demographic trends will affect

colleges and universities over the next quarter century. The first is the already cited decline in the

population of 18 to 24 year olds:17

Higher education can look forward to a general decrease in the size of high school graduating classes for 16 years, followed by increased

numbers of high school graduates beginning in

1998. . . .

Most recent Census Bureau projections (Middle

Series) indicate that the number of 18 to 24 year

olds will decline from 30.4 million in 1982 to 23.3

million in 1996, a 23.4-percent decrease .18 This

is the group that participates at the highest rate

in higher education. As can be seen from table

2-1, for every 100 members of the 18- to 21-yearold population there are 27 full-time equivalent

(FTE) students in higher education, (The number

of “full-time equivalent students” is equal to the

number of full-time students plus one-third the

number of part-time students, ) The ratio for 22

to 24 year olds is 11.5, and the ratios for all other

age groups are much lower. 19

Using the ratios in table 2-1 and the Census Bureau Middle Series projections of the population

by age group, 20 it is relatively straightforward to

“Harold Hodgkinson, “College Students in the 1990’s: A Demographic Portrait, ” The Education Digest, November 1983, pp. 28-31.

l~prolectjonsof the Population, op. cit., pp. 38 and 65.

I Qcaro] Herring and A]]en R. Sanderson, Doctorate EmP~oYment:

Supply and Demand Considerations, 1981-2000 (Princeton, NJ:

Princeton University, 1981), p. 8.

‘

L

’F’rejections of the Population, op. cit., pp. 30-81.

Table 2.1.— Full-Time Equivalent Enrollments

As a percentage of the total populatio n

Age grou p 1968a 1 973a

1978a 1980-2000 b

17 7.1 “/0 6.70/o 5,80/o 6.00/0

18-21 : : : : : : : : : 28. 0 28. 0 26. 0 27. 0

22-24 . . . . . . . . . 9 . 7 11. 2 11. 4 11. 5

25-29 . . . . . . . . . 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

30-34 . . . . . . . . . 1.9 2.5 3.0 3.0

35-59 . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8

aActual

bAss ume d based on current trends

SOURCE Carol P Herring and Allen R Sanderson, “’Doctoral Employment Supply and Demand Considerations, 1981.2000, ” Princeton Unlverstty April

1981, p 8

DEMOGRAPHICS

construct a table of potential FTE enrollments in

higher education for the rest of the century (and

even to the year 2020, if one is willing to accept

population projections based on births that have

not occurred yet). Figure 2-3 shows a continued

decline in FTE enrollments through 1996, with the

minimum in that year at 85 percent of the peak

in 1981. Enrollments then increase through the

first decade of the 21st century, with a new peak

occurring in 2010 about 15 percent above the 1996

minimum. 2]

These projections are based on a model developed by Carol Herring and Allen Sanderson that

assumes existing patterns of enrollment in higher

education among different age groups will continue for the next quarter century. Other assumptions could produce strikingly different results.

For example, the number of 25 to 34 year olds

in undergraduate education increased by nearly

70 percent in the decade 1972-82, as compared to

an increase of only 23 percent in the number of

18 to 24 year olds. If this older group, which will

remain relatively constant in population over the

next decade, continues to increase its rate of participation in undergraduate education, it could

partially offset the decline in 18 to 24 year old en2 I FTES through 2000 calculated by Herring and Sander-son, O P.

cit., FTEs, 2000-20 calculated by Eugene Frankel.

Figure 2-3.— Projected Full-Time Equivalent

Students in Higher Education

19801984198819921996 20002004200820122016 2020

Year

SOURCE Carol P Hemlng and Allen R Sanderson, Doctoral Employment

Supply and Demand Conslderatlons, 1981-2000, Pr[nceton Un[ver.

slty, Apr!l 1981 p 8: and Off Ice of Technology Assessment
37

rollments. 22 specifically, if one assumes that ‘he

percent enrollments in higher education of 30 to

34 year olds and 35 to 59 year olds will continue

to increase at the rates they increased between

1968 and 1978 (0.1 and 0.04 percent per year),

it would generate an additional 1 million full-time

equivalents in 1996. The decline of 15 percent in

FTEs between 1981 and 1996 would become a much

less problematic decrease of only 2.4 percent.

Herring and Sanderson argue against these

more optimistic assumptions :23

There are those who . . . argue that the growth

in “non-traditional” enrollments will more than

compensate for the loss of the traditional population base in higher education. We disagree

. . . . The recent increase [in non-traditional enrollments] has been due in large measure to

women going back to school, and at the present

time they make up about half of the enrolled students. Therefore, the impact of this catching up

phenomenon—in which women were making up

for missed educational opportunities—is expected

to level off . . . . Part of the increase in older students can also be traced to the effects of the Vietnam War and the GI Bill. These effects, too, have

undoubtedly run their course, and most veterans

who are going to return to school on the GI Bill

have done so by now.

The NCES projection of enrollments in higher

education for 1993 is consistent with Herring and

Sanderson’s results. It projects a drop in FTE enrollments of 12.3 percent between 1983 and

1993.24 Herring and Sanderson also project a drop

of 12.3 percent. It is worth noting that in the

NCES projections the fraction of enrollments that

are part time increases from 42.9 percent in 1983

to 48.3 percent in 1993.

The second major trend noted by Hodgkinson

is the increasing proportion of the college age population that will be made up of racial or ethnic

minorities: 25

The major decline in births after the baby boom

was almost completely a Caucasian phenomenon.

Birthrates for minorities stayed even during those

years, resulting in an increased percentage of

“Digest of Educational Statistics, 1983-1984, op. cit., p. Q8.

‘

] Herring and Sanderson, op. cit., p. 6.

“The Condition of Education, op. cit., 1985, pp. 96 and 100.

zjHodgkinson, Op. cit., P. 29”

births coming from minorities . . . . The conclusion for higher education is inescapable: American public schools are now very heavily enrolled

with minority students, large numbers of whom

will be college eligible . . . . Out of sheer selfinterest, it behooves the higher education community to do everything to make sure that the

largest possible number of minority students do

well in pubIic school . . . . By 1990, minorities of

all ages will constitute 20 to 25 percent of our total population, while their percentage among

youth cohorts will be over 30 percent. In some

states, minorities will be over 45 percent of the

state birth cohorts.

Public school enrollments in 1980 presage these

trends. Of the 46 million students enrolled in the

Nation’s public elementary and secondary schools

in 1980, 26.7 percent were minority. of the largest

minority groups, blacks represented 16.1 percent

of enrollments, Hispanics, 8.0 percent.26 Seven

States and the District of Columbia had minority student populations in excess of 35 percent;

11 others exceeded 25 percent (see figure 2-4),27

In addition, 23 of the 25 largest city school systems in the Nation had a majority minority population in 1980.28

The report of a 1983 forum on “The Demographics of Changing Ethnic Populations and

Their Implications for Elementary-Secondary and

Post-secondary Educational Policy” concludes

that :29

Based on the demographic data . . . it seems

clear that much greater attention will have to be

paid to the needs of minority young people, and

to the development of programs that are more responsive to their backgrounds and interests, for

facilities and equipment to sustain these programs, and for teachers specifically trained to

teach particular populations. . . . More research

is needed into how young people of different

backgrounds learn, and existing research should

be mined and adapted for practical application to

local conditions.

‘*The Condition of Education, op. cit., 1985, p. 18.

271 bid., pp. 18 and 19.

‘pIan McNett, “Demographic Imperatives: Implications t(~r Educational Policy, ” Report of the June 8, 1983, Forum on “The Demographics of Changing Ethnic Populations and Their Impl icat ions for

Elementary-Secondary and Postsecondary Educational Policy, ” p.

10,

291 bid., p. 20.
38

Figure 2-4.— Minority Enrollment As Percent of Public Elementary/Secondary School

Percent minority in 1980

I

Enrollment, by State

A K

.

❑

● a

 . . . H

Less than 25.0 percent minority

25.0 to 34.9 percent minority

35.0 or more percent minority

SOURCE National Center for Educallon Statlstlcs, The CondItIorr of Educat/on, 1984 Ed///on, p 19

A third trend noted by Hodgkinson and others

is the striking variation in population growth from

region to region. As can be seen from figure 2-

5,

30 the number of high school graduates is expected to decrease between 1981 and 2000 in the

North, East, South, and Central sections of the

country, while increasing in the West, Far West,

and Southwest. Moreover, some of the increases

(in Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Texas, and Alaska)

will be as large as 48 to 76 percent, while some

of the decreases (in Michigan, Massachusetts,

New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Delaware, and

District of Columbia) will be as great as 30 to 51

percent .31

Thus [according to Hodgkinson] we are faced

for the first time with a “two nation” perspective

on educational policy—trying to get more educational facilities and services for youth in the Sun

Belt, and continuing to cut back on these same

services in the Frost Belt. It is hard to imagine how

a single federal policy on educational assistance

can be equitable in both “nations. ” Further, since

we can expect that institutions of higher education in the Sun Belt will begin to show gains in

undergraduate student populations, while the

Frost Belt institutions can look forward to at least

a decade of decline in enrollments, it will be very

difficult to present the “needs” of higher education to the U.S. Congress by 1990.

~OHaro]d L. Hodgkinson, “Demographics and the Economy: Understanding a Changing Marketplace, r

’ The Admissions Strategist,

January 1985, pp. 1-6.

‘lHodgkinson, op. cit., 1983, p. 29.

IMPLICATIONS FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING PERSONNEL

AND EDUCATION POLICY

The implications of these trends for science and science and engineering careers decreases, it will

engineering education appear to be the following: become increasingly important to ensure that all

As the number of college graduates available for potential resources are utilized to the fullest ex-
3 9

-

Figure 2-5.— Projected Changes in Graduates, by State, 1981-2000

n

 / 0

/ 110 I

,.

&Dow n

22”/’0

up 76%~~ Oa up 18°/ob 26”/oa Dow n

 26%$%%’:,{ !

— Down I -/0

40%a

Dow n

23% a

Dow n

up up

I u p 24% a

Dow n

5% a

190/o ab

35% ab

31 % ab

31 0/0

29 %. a

20%

38 “/o

up

, ”

19%.

, Dow n

19%a

Gai n

Loss

Loss

of

of

1%to25 %

26% or more

apro}ectlon~ fn~l”(j~ ~raduate~ of P“bll~ high schools only All other State protections Include public and nonpubllc h!gh school graduates

bpro)ectlons are for 1998-99

SOURCES. Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. and Harold L Hodklnson, “Demographics and the Economy Understanding

a Changing Marketplace, ” The Adrrr/ss/on .Sfrateg/sf, January 1985, p 3

tent possible, and that no qualified candidates for

science and engineering education are discouraged

by problems related to gender, race, or ethnic

background. Hence, policies to promote equality of opportunity for women and minorities will

take on increasing relevance to science and engineering “manpower” policy.

Blacks and Hispanics may be of special concern.

They tend to participate in higher education at

half the rate of their white counterparts, and tend

to select quantitative fields as majors once in college or graduate school at one-half (for blacks)

to three-fourths (for Hispanics) the rate of the

white student population, 32 As the fraction of the

college age population increases, programs to promote equality of access to science and engineer-

“Sue E. Berryman, J1’ho H’iil Do Science (New York: The Rockete]]er Foundation, 1983), pp. 18-21.

ing careers for minority groups may have to be

expanded in order to prevent a decline in the number of science and engineering degrees awarded.

These programs will be discussed in greater detail in chapter 5.

It is not possible to judge unequivocally the effects of a drop of 15 percent in the number of

science and engineering baccalaureates on the Nation’s scientific and technical efforts. NSF data displayed in table 2-2 show that only 43 percent of

the science and engineering baccalaureates in 1980

and 1981 were employed in a science or engineering field in 1982. 33 Of the remaining science and

engineering baccalaureates, 28 percent found

work outside science and engineering altogether,

21 percent went on to graduate school in science

———.—

‘‘~\’ational Patterns ot Science and Technology>’, 1984, IXSF 84-

311 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1Q84), p. 24.
40 —

Table 2-2.—Transition of 1980 and 1981 Science/Engineering (S/E) Graduates From School to Work in 1982 (percent)

Degree level/fiel d

Bachelor’s degrees:

All S/E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Physical science s

a 

. . . . . . .

Mathematics . . . . . . . . . . . .

Computer specialties . . . . .

Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Life sciences . . . . . . . . . . . .

Social sciencesb 

. . . . . . . . .

Master’s degrees:

All S/E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Physical sciences a . . . . . . .

Mathematics . . . . . . . . . . . .

Computer specialties . . . . .

Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Life sciences . . . . . . . . . . . .

Social sciencesb 

. . . . . . . . .

Total Total —

100 71

100 53

100 80

100 94

100 89

100 58

100 68

100 74

100 65

100 77

100 88

100 82

100 65

100 68

Employed

In S/E Outside S/E

43 28

41 12

57 23

85 9

78 10

34 24

21 46

55 19

47 18

56 21

76 12

72 11

47 17

34 34

Full-time

graduate

students

21

40

13

3

7

33

22

21

29

17

10

14

31

24

Not employed

Seeking Outside

employment labor force

5 4

4 3

4 4

2 1

3 2

5 5

6 5

3

3

3

1

2

2

6

2

3

3

1

2

3

3

a

lncludes environmental sciences

b

lncludes psychology

SOURCE National Science Foundation, National Patterns of Science and Technology Resources, NSF 84.311. p 24

and engineering and other fields and another 5

percent were still seeking employment. Thus, it

appears that the Nation is currently producing

more science and engineering baccalaureates than

are absolutely required by the science and engineering work force.

This finding clearly does not hold true for engineering and computer science, which showed employment rates in science and engineering of about

80 percent. However, engineering and computer

sciences illustrate another important feature of the

science and engineering marketplace: the extreme

responsiveness of undergraduates to market signals and career opportunities. Undergraduate enrollments in both computer science and engineering have increased dramatically in the last 8 years

in response to excellent job opportunities for baccalaureates in those fields, as discussed in chapter 1. If other scientific fields were to require

greater numbers of technically trained baccalaureates, market signals alone would attract an increasing supply of undergraduates to them. As

Sue Berry man has found:34

Overall, the data on the levels and fields of

completed degrees suggest that youth respond to

oversupplies by earning fewer degrees in oversupplied fields. If they enter an oversupplied field,

they increase the amount of education they obtain—presumably to increase their competitiveness in a loose labor market. They respond to

shortages or more liberal employment opportunities by increasing their educational investments

in these fields at the lower degree levels and reducing them at the higher degree levels—presumably because they are in a seller’s market.

‘“Sue E. Berryman, “The Adjustment of Youth and Educational

Institutions to Technologically-Generated Changes in Skill Requiremerits, ” op. cit., p. v.

GRADUATE EDUCATION

Graduate school is the principal training ground

for a research career. Here the student gains the

advanced knowledge and techniques that are the

tools of the research trade, and forms the professional contacts that shape a research career. A

great deal of detailed information about science

and engineering graduate education is available

from the National Science Foundation, the National Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Medicine, and the science and engineering professional

societies. Science and engineering graduate students are classified by field, degree, source of sup-
41

port, type of institution, sex, racial and ethnic

group, and citizenship. Ph.D. scientists are probably the most thoroughly surveyed and welldocumented citizens in the United States. This section summarizes the principal trends in graduate

education, focusing on the doctoral degree as the

entry level to a research career.

Graduate enrollments have followed a pattern

similar to that of undergraduates in the past quarter century, dramatically increasing in the 1960s

and then rising more modestly in the 1970s and

early 1980s. However, the relationship to larger

demographic trends is far more tenuous than in

the undergraduate case. From 1960 to 1970 graduate enrollments nearly tripled, rising from

360,000 to over a million, while at the same time,

the population of 22 to 34 year olds increased by

only 18 percent. 35 From 1970 to 1982, by contrast,

the number of graduate students increased only

modestly, by 30 percent, while the overall population of 22 to 34 year olds rose more than 55 percent.36 (See below. ) Thus there appears to be no

direct relationship between graduate enrollments

and the graduate school age population.

Science and engineering have followed overall

graduate enrollment trends quite closely. From

1960 to 1970 the number of full-time graduate

science and engineering students enrolled in U.S.

institutions increased 150 percent, from about

78,000 to 188,000.37 By 1982 that number had

“Statistical Abstract, 1982-83, op. cit., pp. 25 and 159.

“Condition of Education, op. cit,, 1985, p. 79; Projections of the

Population, op. cit., p. 38.

‘“Susan Fallows, “Federal Support for Graduate Education in the

Sciences and Engineering, “ background paper prepared for the Ad

Hoc Committee on Government-University Relationships in Support of Science, National Academy of Sciences, 1983, p. 10.

reached 264,000, a further increase of 40 percent .38

(An additional 150,000 science and engineering

graduate students were enrolled part time, bringing the total to 414,000.

39) Enrollment growth was

greatest in the social sciences and the life sciences

over the full 23-year period, as can be seen from

figure 2-6, and weakest in engineering, physical

science, and especially mathematics and computer

science. 40

The number of doctorate degrees awarded annually in all fields tripled in the decade of the

1960s, reaching a peak in 1973 at 33,755. It has

subsequently declined to a level of 31,000 per

year, where it has remained since 1978 (see above

and figure 2-7).4

’ The number of science and engineering Ph.D. s grew slightly less rapidly, by a factor of 2.85 between 1960 and 1970. It reached a

peak at 19,009 in 1972 and has subsequently declined to a nearly constant level of 17,500 to

18,000 per year in the 1980s, ’2 The share of total

doctorates awarded in science or engineering decreased from 65 percent in the early 1960s to 55

percent by the late 1970S.

43

----- . . . — --

a8Academic Science Engineering: Graduate Enrollment and SUPport, Fall 1982, NSF 85-300 (Washington, DC: National Science

Foundation, 1985), p. 20.

“Ibid.

JOFalloW,s, Op. cit. # p, 12”

“I bid., pp. 31 and 32; Science and Engineering Personnel: A VJtional Overview’, op. cit,, p. 156, gives sllghtly different numbers

for total Ph. D.s: 9,733 in 1960; 29,498 in 1970.

“2Fallows, op. cit., p. 31.; Science and Engineering Personnel: A

National Over~iew, op. cit., again gives different numbers, b,263

science and engineering Ph .D. s in 1960 and 17,743 in 1970. This

is due to a difference in classification of life science and social science

fields between the National Science Foundation and the National

Academy of Sciences.

djscience and Engjneerjng IJersonne]: A ,%ra tiondi ol’er~’ie~+’, Op.

cit., p. 156.

Graduate Population, Enrollments, Ph.D.s

1960 1970 1983

population of 22 to 34 year olds. ... , . . . . 29,250,000 34,500,000 53,600,000

(percent change) ( +18 perdent} (+55 percent)

Total graduate enrollment , . . . . . . . . . . . . . 356,000

,

8 (+200 percent)

1,031,000 1,339,090

(percent change) (+30 percent)

S/E full-time enrollment , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , 187,843 263,800

(percent change) ( +l50 percent)

Ph.D.s per year, all fields.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,132 29,479 (+ 40 percenO 31,190

(percent change) (+223 percent) ‘ (+6 percent)

S/E Ph.D.s per year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,263 17,743 17,924

(percent change) (+183 percent) (+1 percent)
42

—

Figure 2-6.— Full-Time Graduate Enrollments in

Science/Engineering at U.S. Institutions, by Field

and by Year, 1960-83

Physical -’ Math/computer sciences

--, -----

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Year

SOURCE Susan Fallows, Federa/ Supporf for Graduate Educaf/on (n the Sc/emes

arm Ertg/neer/ng (Washl ngton, DC National Academy of Sc!ences,

1983) p 12

The number of Ph.D.s awarded annually grew

at roughly the same rate in all science and engineering fields during the 1960s, as can be seen

from figure 2-8. In the early 1970s, however, the

paths of the different disciplines began to diverge.

The number of doctorates awarded annually in

engineering, and the mathematical and physical

sciences decreased by 30 percent between 1971 and

1978, dropping from 4,500 to 3,200 per year in

the physical sciences, from 3,500 to 2,400 in engineering and from 1,300 to 960 in mathematics and

computer science. Meanwhile, the number of life

science Ph. D.s remained constant at about 4,4oo

per year, while the number of social science

Ph. D.s increased from 5,000 to 6,000 per year.44

Since 1978 the number of doctorates awarded each

~~Fa] ] oh,s, op, cit., p. 33.

Figure 2-7.— Number of Doctorates Awarded by

U.S. Institutions, by Field and by Year, 1958-83

3(

o

0-

- 2 0

x

al

10

6!

o

19

#

‘ Total

doctorates

● #i*. x* :, :

60 62 64 6[

i

a

6 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82

enc.e.s arrd Eng/~eerf~g ~ Wash I n gton DC Nat ~on al Academy of Sc I en{. es 1983) p 12 and Nat Ional Research CO(, nc I I Docfora/ f7ec/p(

en(s from Un~(ed States Un/vers/t!es Surr~mar~ Re~ort 1983 p 5

year in the various science and engineering fields

has remained relatively constant, with modest increases taking place in engineering and the life

sciences.

The changes in graduate enrollments and annual doctorates awarded in the different science

and engineering fields are related to broader

changes in the composition of the graduate school

population since 1970. Women and foreign nationals have dramatically increased their shares

of both enrollments and doctorates over the past

15 years, with the effects varying from field to

field. According to educational consultant Robert

Snyder :45

It is important to note that graduate science and

engineering enrollments would have remained

4’R. C. Snyder, “Some Indicators of the Condition of Graduate

Education in Science and Engineering, ” paper presented at “The

Brookings Institution, Nov. 15, 1984, typescript, pp. 4-5.
Figure 2-8.— Doctorate Degrees in Science and

Engineering by Field and by Year, 1958-83

Social sciences/

psychology

/

/

Life sciences

.“

.’

.

● **

Math/computer

sciences

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1985

SOURCES Susan Fallows Federa/ Support for G{aduafe Educat/on /n the SCI

ences and Eng/rteer(ng (Washington, DC National Academy of SC I

ences 1983} p 12, National Research Council Doctora/ Rec/p/en/s

F,onJ bnffed States Unlvers{rtes, Surnfnary Report, 1983 p 5, and Na

tlonal Science Foundation .%~ence and Techflo/ogy Resources. NSF

85305 Jaluary 1985 Pp 6365

flat, were it not for the marked increases in female and foreign enrollments. With respect to

gender differences, female full-time enrollment in

doctoral institutions rose 53 percent in the 1975-

1982 time period, compared to level enrollment

for men. While sharp percentage increases occurred in engineering, environmental and computer sciences, these increases were built upon a

meager base. Therefore, as of 1982, women comprised only 11 percent of fuI1-time engineering students, 20 percent in physical/environmental

sciences and 25 percent in mathematical/computer sciences. The greatest impact of female enrollment increases has been in the biological

43

sciences (4o percent women) and psychology/social sciences (46 percent women). In fact, male

full-time enrollment in the 1975-82 period declined

14 percent in the biological sciences and 17 percent in psychology /social sciences compared to

female increases of 38 and 35 percent, respectively, in the same period. Thus female enrollments were wholly responsible for positive enrollment trends in these two broad fields.

In [the “EMP” sciences], enrollment increases

have been due significantly to surging enrollments

of foreign students. In engineering, foreign fulltime enrollments rose at an average annual rate

of 8.4 percent from 1975 to 1982, reaching almost

21,000 students or 43 percent of total full-time students in this broad field. This compares to an

annual increase among U.S. citizens of only 1.6

percent, An even larger discrepancy was in mathematics/computer sciences. Here, foreign enrollments increased at a rate of 12.7 percent per year,

to a 36 percent share of full-time enrollments,

compared to a 0.5 percent per year increase for

U.S. citizens. One encouraging note is that in

1981-82, the most recent year for which data are

available, U.S. enrollments in both these broad

fields rose at much higher rates than previously.

With respect to minority participation in graduate science and engineering education, the picture in recent years is not encouraging. While extended trend data are not available, recent NSF

data show very low rates of participation. For all

fields, blacks comprise only 2.5 percent and

Hispanics 2.1 percent of full-time science and engineering enrollments in 1982.

Data on doctoral degree production confirm

these trends. Figure 2-9 shows the dramatic increases in percentage of Ph. D.s awarded to

women in all fields between 1965 and 1983. 46 Table 2-3 shows the dramatic increase in the percentage of science and engineering doctoral recipients who were foreign nationals on temporary

visas between 1970 and 1983 in physics/astronomy, chemistry, mathematics, and engineering.

The first two fields increased by more than a factor of 2; the last two by a factor of 3.47

‘“Opportunities in Science and Engineering (\ Vashingt[>n, DC.

Sclentif]c Manpower Commission, 1984), p. 8.

‘-~rolessiona) t$~omen and ,Jlinorities (\ Nashingtc>n, IX. Sclent ific Manpower Commission, Auxust 1~841, p. 32,
44

Figure 2.9.— Percent of S/E Ph.D.s Earned

by Women

1965 1970 1975 1980

Year

SOURCE Sclentlflc Manpower Commlsslon, Oppor/unlfles in .Sclerxe and

.Engineenr?g, Washington, DC, 1984, p. 8.

Table 2-3.—Percent of S/E Doctoral Recipients Who Were Foreign Nationals on Temporary Visas, Selected Years

Field 1962 1966 1970 1974 1980 1983

Physics/astronomy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.70/0 12.20/0 11 .3’% 17.2°\o 19.2°\o 24.60/o

Chemistry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 11.1 7.9 10.2 15.4 16.1

Earth/environmental science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 12.9 13.9 16.1 12.7 16.6

Mathematics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.8 12.6 10.9 18.5 18.7 29.8

Economics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.2 20.1 17.2 22.0 25.0 25.9

Political science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.1 13,0 9.3 10.8 11.9 13.9

Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17.9 16.7 13.7 22.4 34.3 42.1

Biological science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.4 14.3 10.5 10.5 7.8 8.6

Medical science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.6 18.6 16.6 9.4 11.3 13.7

Agricultural science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23.8 30.4 25.3 33.2 32.6 31,2

Total S/E . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . — .

15.2% 15.30/0 12.50/o 16.70/o 18.80/0 15.5%

SOURCE Sclenttflc Manpower C;mmlsslon, F’rofess/orra/ Women and A4/norrfres. Washington, DC, 1984, p 32

FEDERAL SUPPORT FOR GRADUATE EDUCATION

IN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING

The pattern of graduate enrollment and Ph.D.

production in science and engineering in the 1960-

7.s era is also related to the changing nature and

level of Federal support for graduate education

in those fields. Since World War II, the Federal

Government has utilized a variety of mechanisms

to support graduate students and further the goal

of enhancing the Nation’s resources of highly

trained scientists and engineers. Fellowships and

traineeships are the direct forms of support for

graduate students that have been most frequently

used to target areas of perceived personnel need.

Research grants and institutional support have

also provided essential, though indirect, means

of supporting graduate education.

Fellowships are tuition/stipend mechanisms

that are awarded directly to students through national competition. Award is made principally on

the basis of merit, the intent being to attract the

best students available into a particular field or

problem area. Fellowships are portable in the

sense that the awardee is free to enroll in any qualified institution to which he/she can gain admittance.

Federal traineeship programs (sometimes called

“training grants”), in contrast to fellowships, are

blocks of student tuition/stipend awards that are

made to departments or institutions on a multiyear basis. Traineeships focus on the training pro-
45

gram, not the student. Departments typically apply for training grants in national competition,

and awards are made by peer review so that high

quality standards are met. Because of the multiyear block nature of training grants, they are well

suited to target personnel at social problem solving areas as well as broad fields of science. The

National Institutes of Health (NIH) training

grants, historically the largest of these programs,

have been used for both purposes.

Federal research grants are an important vehicle for training and support of graduate students

through the research assistantship (RA). Since research training is generally acquired through an

apprenticeship with a faculty member, the RA

aids in this mentoring process, while providing

a source of financial support for the student. However, since the primary purpose of the RA is to

assist in the production of research, the number

of RAs awarded is often not explicitly related to

national personnel and training requirements.

A final source of Federal support for graduate

education is the institutional grant, such as the

general science support grant, facilities and equipment support, and the science development grant.

Most of these forms of assistance do not support

graduate students directly, but undergird the research and education environment.

Prior to 1958, the primary source of Federal

assistance to graduate education in science and

engineering was the research assistantship. According to education consultant Robert Snyder,

“a survey of graduate student support in 1954 by

NSF indicated that 10 percent of all graduate students received Federal stipend support (6,751), of

which 86 percent came in the form of research assistantships, ” By 1969, the situation had changed

dramatically: 36 percent of all graduate science

and engineering students (51,620) were supported

by the Federal Government, and 56 percent of

those supported held either a fellowship or a

traineeship. Table 2-4 illustrates those changes.48

The impetus for this change was the launching

of Sputnik by the Soviet Union in October 1957.

The following year Congress passed the National

Defense Education Act (NDEA, Public Law 85-

864) which “marked the inception of large-scale

Federal graduate education support .“49 The Title

IV fellowship program of NDEA grew to support

more than 15,000 graduate students at a budget

of $86 million in 1968, with support being provided in many academic fields, including the

heretofore excluded humanities. so In addition,

NDEA also “provided subsidies to educational institutions to create low interest loans for needy

students in all disciplines . . . . [which] would be

~HRobert G. Snyder, “Federal Support of Graduate Education in

the Natural Sciences: An Inquiry Into the Social Impact of Public

Policy, ” doctoral dissertation, Syracuse University, June 1981, pp.

103 and 110; appendix tables 6 and 9, pp. 264 and 267.

‘qJbid., p. 108.

‘“Ibid,

Table 2-4 .—Distribution of Primary Sources of Support for Full-Time Science and Engineering

Graduate Students in Doctorate-Granting Departments, Selected Years

Source of support- ‘

- - – 1954 1966 1969 1974 1979 1983

Number of graduate students:

All sources, . . . . . . . . . . . 67,136 118,273 141,199 195,915 223,409 243,646

Federal Government . . . . . . . . . 6,751 44,612 51,620 48,016 52,871 47,402

institution/State . . . 16,958 42,343 50,471 75,411 82,813 96,188

Self . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,000 19,571 26,307 56,085 67,686 75,641

Other. . . . . . . . . . 4,427 11,747 12,801 16,403 20,039 24,415

Percent distribution:

All sources, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Federal Government . , 10.1 37.7 36.6 24.5 23.7 19.5

institution/State . . . 25.3 35.8 35.7 38.5 37.1 39.5

Self . . . . 58.1 16.6 18.6 28.6 30.3 31.0

Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6 9.9 9.1 8.4 9.0 10.0

NOTE Except for 1979 and 1983 absolute numbers In t~Is table should be used wtth caution for trend analysls because they are derived from somewhat incompatible

sources 1954 data Include part-t !me students thereby overrepresent! ng self-support

SOURCES P4at, onal Science Foundation Graduafe Sfudent Enro//rnerrt and Support In Arrrer/can Un/vers/t/es and Co//eges 1954 National Sc!ence Foundation Gradu.

afe Studen/ Supped and Manpower Resources In Graduafe Sc(ence Educat/on fal I 1966 and fal I 1969 Nat Ional Science Foundation, Academ/c Sc/ence

Grad(/afe Enro//menf and Supper/ Fa// 1978 and National Science Foundation Academ/c Sc/ence/Eng/neer/ng Graduate Enro//rrrent and Support Fa// 1983
4 6

-.

forgiven for students who later went into teaching careers. ”51

In the years following the passage of NDEA,

the President’s Science Advisory Committee issued a series of reports calling for increased support for science and engineering education. These

reports —Education for the Age of Science (1959);

Scientific Progress, the Universities and the Federal Government (the “Seaborg report, ” 1960),

and Meeting Manpower Needs in Science and

Technology (the “Gilliland report, ” 1962)—

“articulated the national need for greater numbers

of scientists and engineers . . ., and for stronger

Federal support for the training of manpower for

basic research and for university level teaching. ”52

They were followed by a set of significant actions:

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

The NSF fellowship program, begun in 1952,

was expanded from about 500 to 2,500 per

year.

An NSF traineeship program was begun in

1962, and awarded 5,000 traineeships a year

to 200 institutions by the late 1960s.

NIH predoctoral support programs expanded

from 55 traineeships in 1958 to 7,696 traineeships and 1,527 fellowships in 1970.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) instituted a traineeship

program in 1962 for engineers, mathematicians and physical scientists.

The Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) expanded its fellowship program and instituted

a new traineeship program (1965) in nuclear

science and engineering.

All told, the number of science and engineering graduate students supported by Federal predoctoral fellowships and traineeships increased

from 5,000 in 1961 to 34,100 in the peak year of

1969. 53 (See figure 2-10. ) At the same time Federal research and development (R&D) support to

universities expanded fourfold, from $40s million

in 1960 to $1.595 billion in current dollars in

1969. 54 As a result, the number of federally supported research assistantships increased to more

than 19,600 in 1969.55

“Fallows, op. cit., p. 5.

“Ibid.

“Snyder, op. cit., 1981, p. 109 and appendix table 7, p, 265.

“Fallows, op. cit., p. 404,

“Snyder, op. cit., 1981, p. 267, The number 19,646 given in Jppendix table 9 of Snyder’s dissertation represents those tull-time gradIn addition to direct stipends for graduate study

and research, two new programs in the mid-1960s

broadened the scope of Federal support for graduate education. These were the Guaranteed Student Loan and College Work Study programs authorized by the Higher Education Act of 1965

(Public Law 89-329). The work study program

“enabled graduate departments and researchers

to hire low income students at a small fraction

of the costs of the students’ wages through Federal wage subsidies. ” The loan program was

directed at low-income graduate and undergraduate students in all fields “as part of a larger shift

in Federal policy towards aiding disadvantaged

socioeconomic groups. ”56 By 1969 more than

70,000 students were receiving guaranteed student

loans; 17,000 were enrolled in college work-study

programs and 27,400 held NDEA loans. An additional 91,464 graduate and professional school

students (the numbers are not available for graduate students alone) were supported by veterans

benefits. 57 It should be noted, however, that the

average level of support per student from these

programs was less than $1,000 per year, as compared to more than $5,500 per year, tuition plus

stipend, from the NDEA Title IV fellowship

program.

Thus, between 1960 and 1969 Federal support

for graduate education in science and engineering expanded dramatically, as part of an overall

Federal emphasis on post-secondary education.

Other forces were at work as well during this

period. Increasing State support for higher education, and especially the expansion of many State

university systems in this era, created an increasing demand for new faculty to instruct the growing numbers of undergraduates. And increasing

undergraduate enrollments created significant additional demands for teaching assistants, thereby

providing much additional graduate student support. By 1969, over 50,000 full-time science and

engineering graduate students were receiving their

primary source of support from institutional and

State sources, nearly as many as received Federal

-.

uate science students who indicated research assistants ips as their

“primary type of support. ” There may be other RA recipients that

relied on other sources for “primary support” and are theretore not

Included in the total in Snyder’s table,

‘

d

Fallows, op. cit., p. 6.

“Snyder, op. cit., 1981, appendix table 11, p. 269 and appendix

table 12, p. 270.
47

.

Figure 2-10.— Federal Predoctoral Fellowships and Traineeships by Field.

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Fiscal Years 1961 -75a

.

Biological sciences ● 

● *

● * ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● 

● ● 9 .

/

** Physical science s

● ~ ~ \

. ~

--- -

1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 19

Fiscal years 1961-75a

aData ,nclude N IH tralnlng grant trainees In the biological sciences but not In other fields, data do flOt Include N IMH tralflee S

bEstlmate

SOURCES For all fields except btologlcal sciences — FY 1961-1969 data, FICE (1970), FY 1970-1975 data, FICE

(unpublished) For blologtcal sciences–FICE (1970, unpublished) and NAS. NIH trainee file, and NIH (1978)

Robert G Snyder, The Effecflveness of Federa/ Graduate Educaflon Po/Icy /for] Sclerrt(/lc Personne/, report to

Off Ice of Technology Assessment June 1985, table 2

assistance (see table 2-4). Of those students,

33,000 held teaching assistantships.58

With undergraduate enrollments in both public and private institutions increasing dramatically, as we have seen above, the labor market

for doctoral personnel was booming in the 1960s.

‘“Graduate Student Support and Manpower Resources In Graduate Science Education, NSF 70-40 (Washington, DC: National

Science Foundation, 1969), p. 50.

75

The 260,000 new junior faculty hired during the

decade exceeded the number of doctorates awarded

between 1960 and 1969—170,000—by 53 percent .59 This situation boosted the salaries of doctorate recipients relative to other occupations,

thereby providing added inducement for more

‘“AlIan Cartter, Ph. D.s and the Academic Labor ,\farLet t New

York: hlcGraw-Hill, 1Q76), p. 123.
4 8

people to enter doctoral study .’” (Faculty salaries

rose 50 percent faster than those of all other

workers during the 1960s, according to Richard

Freeman.”)

Thus, a complex array of interconnecting variables—Federal, State, and private sector—appear

to have combined to produce the surge of graduate enrollments and doctoral production in the

1960s. In addition, the Vietnam War led many

male college graduates to enroll in graduate school

and remain there through receipt of a degree.

The year 1969 turned out to be a watershed for

Federal support of graduate education in science

and engineering. A combination of political, economic, and social factors, and a growing Federal

awareness that demand for doctoral scientists and

engineers was not keeping up with supply, led to

severe cutbacks in Federal fellowship and traineeship support. The number of U.S. Government

supported fellows and trainees declined from

36,000 in 1969 to 10,800 in 1975. The NDEA Title IV fellowship program was phased out in 1973.

NSF traineeships, NIH fellowships, NASA traineeships, and AEC fellowships and traineeships were

all eliminated in the early 1970s. All that remained

by 1979 were 4,800 NIH traineeships, approxi-

. .

‘

i

” The Demand for New Faculty in Science and Engineering ( Washington, DC: National Research Council, 1980), p. 117.

‘

l Richard Freeman, The Market for College-Trained Manpower

(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1971), pp. 77-80.

Table 2-5.—Federal Predoctoral Fellowships

mately 1,500 Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental

Health Administration (ADAMHA) traineeships

and fellowships, and 1,500 NSF merit fellowships. 62

Federal R&D expenditures at universities, which

had increased by a factor of 4 in current dollars,

and a factor of 3 in constant dollars, between 1960

and 1968, stopped growing. In 1974 the level of

Federal R&D support to universities was only 25

percent above its total 6 years earlier in current

dollars, and 7.2 percent less in constant dollars. 63

The number of federally supported research assistantships decreased by about 10 percent between 1969 and 1974.

The effects of changing levels of Federal support on the supply of new science and engineering Ph.D.s is seen most dramatically by comparing the experience of different science and

engineering fields during the contraction period,

1968-75. Figure 2-10 and table 2-5 show the dramatic drop in the number of Federal fellowships

and traineeships awarded in engineering, mathematics, and the physical sciences between 1968

and 1975. The number of awards dropped from

3,000 to 200 in mathematics; from 6,000 to 600

in the physical sciences, and from 5,500 to 700

in engineering. 64 The total number of full-time stu-

—.. —

‘

z

Snyder, op. cit., 1981, pp. 122 and 123.

O’FalIows, op. cit., p. 4.

“Snyder, op. cit., 1981, appendix table 7, p. 265.

and Traineeships by Field, Fiscal Years 1961.75a

All Physical Biological Social

Fiscal year sciences Mathematics sciences Engineering sciences sciences

1961 . . . . . . . . . 5,445 629 1,273 638 1,782 1,123 -

1962 . . . . . . . . . 9,245 852 1,684 860 3,911 1,938

1963 . . . . . . . . . 11,224 899 1,955 1,050 4,940 2,380

1964 . . . . . . . . . 12,757 1,024 2,461 1,402 5,337 2,533

1965 . . . . . . . . . 16,683 1,211 2,974 3,092 6,329 3,077

1966 . . . . . . . . . 21,929 1,824 4,353 4,190 7,536 4,026

1967 . . . . . . . . 28,895 2,598 5,424 4,784 9,250 6,839

1968 . . . . . . . . . 33,901 3,024 5,960 5,507 10,161 9,249

1969 . . . . . . . . . 34,100 2,734 5,776 5,058 10,882 9,650

1970 . . . . . . . . . 30,646 2,006 4,459 4,323 11,182 8,676

1971 . . . . . . 26,694 1,073 4,071 3,540 9,669 8,341

1972 . . . . . . . . . 23,579 776 3,212 2,953 8,851 7,787

1973 . . . . . . . . . 19,335 447 1,893 1,938 8,114 6,943

1974 . . . . . . . . . i 3,084 343 1,183 1,225 6,111 4,222

1975 . . . . . . . . . 10,787 208 592 715 6,098b

3,174

aD~ta ,“cl”de NIH tralnlng grarlt lralrlees In the biological sciences but not In other fields data do nOt Include NIM H trainee S

bEstlmate

SOURCES For all ftelds except biological sciences–FY1961-69 data, FICE (1970), FY 1970-75 data FICE (unpublished) For biological sciences–FICE (1970, unpub.

Ilshed) and NAS NIH trainee ftle. and NIH (1978) Robert G. Snyder, The Effectiveness of Federa/ Graduate Educaf~on Po//cy/for] Sc/enf/f/c Persorrr?e/, report

to OTA, June 1985, table 2
49

dents in doctorate granting departments supported

by the Federal Government in engineering, mathematics, and physical science decreased by 18, 57,

and 33 percent, respectively, between 1969 and

1974 as can be seen in table 2-6.65 Figure 2-8 shows

the substantial decline in Ph. D.s awarded in engineering, mathematics, and the physical sciences

that occurred in the period 1972-78.66 It should

be noted that those three fields were also affected

by a decline in Federal research funds awarded

to universities of 20 percent in constant dollars

between 1968 and 1974. ’7

By contrast, Federal fellowships and traineeships declined, but not nearly so precipitously,

in the biological and social sciences—from 11,000

to 6,000 in the former, and from 9,700 to 4,200

in the latter. Moreover, as table 2-6 shows, the

total number of full-time graduate students supported by the Federal Government, including RAs

and other forms of support, actually increased by

45 percent in the life sciences and remained constant in the social sciences in the period 1969-74.

In addition, Federal funding of research at universities and colleges in the life and social sciences

remained at the same level, in constant dollars,

throughout the 1968-74 period, as opposed to the

decline in engineering and the mathematical and

“~~~., appendix table 10, p. 268.

bOFallows, op. cit., p. 33.

“’Snyder, op. cit., 1981, p. 262.

physical sciences reported above. It is not surprising, therefore, to find that the number of Ph. D.s

in the life and social sciences did not decrease in

the 1970s.

The apparent correspondence between decreases

in Federal educational support in particular fields

and decreases in the numbers of doctoral degrees

awarded several years later does not, of course,

prove causality. The numbers do, however, suggest that there may be a relationship between these

two variables.

From 1974 to 1980 the Federal share of support

for full-time science and engineering graduate students in doctorate granting institutions remained

relatively constant at about to 23 to 25 percent

of the total. Since 1980 it has declined to less than

20 percent.68 Figure 2-11 presents the percentage

shares of Federal support for science and engineering graduate students as a whole and by field.

Note the sizable variation from field to field, with

mathematics and the social sciences at 11 percent

Federal support, and engineering, physical and

environmental sciences, and life sciences at 20 to

.30 percent.

‘

s

Ibid., appendix table 10, p. 268; and Academic Science Engineering: Graduate Enrollment and Support, Fall 1Q82, op. cit., pp.

112-113.

Table 2-6.— FuIl-Time Graduate Students in Doctorate-Granting Institutions Supported by

the Federal Government by Broad Field, Selected Years

Total full-time enrollment/

number federally supported 1969 1972 1974 1978 1983

All sciences ... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

——.

141,199 149,937 195,915 -217,588-- 243,646

Federal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51,620 45,029 48,016 51,373 47,402

Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30,820 30,908 33,691 37,129 53,553

Federal . . . . . . ... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,334 11,246 10,164 10,625 11,924

Physical sciences . . . . . . . . ... , . . . . . . . . . . 30,175 27,544 29,649 31,375 35,904

Federal . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,187 9,687 8,868 10,123 10,886

Mathematical sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,727 11,909 13,423 13,706 19,581

Federal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,223 1,908 1,393 1,307 1,794

Life sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27,588 34,083 54,800 65,097 65,185

Federal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,513 12,037 16,757 19,659 17,221

Psychology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,918 14,282 18,728 20,677 21,327

Federal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,127 4,691 4,404 3,943 1,982

Social sciences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28,971 31!211 45,624 49,604 48,096

Federal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,236 5,460 6,430 5,716 3,595

SOURCES Robert G Snyder F>dera/ Support of Graduate Educat~on (n the Natural .%len~S-d;~~~l-dl SSertdtlOn Syrac;se Unlvers!ty, June 1981 app table 10 p 268

and N atlonal Science Foundation Acadernfc Scfence/Engfr?eerfng Graduafe Enrollment and Supporf Fa// 1983 NSF 85300, table Cl 4, pp 112113
50

Figure 2-1 1.—Full-Time Graduate Students in

Doctorate-Granting Institutions Supported by the

50

40

30

20

10

0

Federal Government by Broad Field,

Selected Years

1969 1972 1974 1978 1983

Year

SOURCES Robert G Snyder, Federa/ Support 01 Graduafe Educaf/on In the

Na/ura/ Sciences, Doctoral Dlssertatlon, Syracuse Unlverslty.

June 1981 appendl x table 10, p 268, and NSF, Acadern~c Sc(ence

Errgtneerlrrg Graduafe Enro//rnenf and Support. Fa// 1983. NS F

85-300, table C14 pp 112-113

THE FUTURE

The exact interplay of the various factors that

will determine graduate enrollments and Ph.D.

production in the sciences and engineering over

the next 20 years is difficult to predict. It was

shown above that three factors appear to influence the numbers of Ph. D.s awarded in science

and engineering fields: Federal support for graduate education, State and institutional support,

and demand for new doctorates. Federal support

for graduate education in the sciences and engineering may rise modestly in the next decade if

the funding of research grants to universities, and

hence research assistantships, continues to increase. Fellowship and traineeship support will

probably remain constant. State and institutional

support will probably decline due to declining enrollments, with the declines being greatest in the

Northeast, Middle Atlantic, and Midwestern

States. However, it is also possible that science

and engineering enrollments will not experience

the overall declines of the rest of the higher education system and that States will continue to provide extra support for science and engineering research at their State universities as part of their
efforts to develop high-technology industries for

economic growth. In that case, State and institutional support may not decline at all.

As for demand, we shall see in chapter 3 that

the academic demand for new science and engineering faculty is likely to be very weak over the

next decade and very strong from 1995 to 2010.

Industrial demand for new science and engineering Ph. D.s, by contrast, has been growing at 7.8

percent per year over the past decade and will,

if it continues to grow at present rates, compensate for the decline in academic demand between

1985 and 1995. After that, if industrial demand

continues to grow, there will be stiff competition

between industry and academia for new scientific

and engineering doctoral degree recipients in the

1995-2010 time frame. That competition will be

discussed in chapter 3.

In the near-term, what is remarkable is the

overall flatness of the recent trend lines, since 1978

51

(see figures 2-12 and 2-13),69 for total doctorates,

for doctorates in science and engineering, and for

full-time graduate enrollments in science and engineering. The only exception has been engineering graduate school enrollment, which has in-

“Science and Technology Resources, NSF 85-305 (Washington,

DC: National Science Foundation, January 1985), pp. 75 and 77.

Figure 2-12.— Doctorates Awarded

35

30 -

25

20

15

5 -

1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982

Year

SOURCE: National Sctence Foundation, Science and Technology Resources,

NSF 85-305, January 1985, p 77

Figure 2-13.—Full-Time Graduate Enrollment by Area of Science/Engineeringa

Year

aln doctorate.granting institutions prior to 1974, data were collected from a selected group of departments rather than from the univer$e

blncludes support from State and local 9ovemmems.

SOURCE: National Science Foundation, ScJence and Technology Resources, NSF 85-305, January 1985, pp 53-65.
52

creased dramatically, primarily at the master’s

level. A reasonable assumption for the next decade, which is that of the Scientific Manpower

Commission and the National Center for Education Statistics (see figure 2-14), 70 is that there will

be a continuation of current enrollment and Ph.D.

production levels. Engineering is likely to continue

to increase its share and the social sciences to decrease theirs, due to market forces. Women,

whose attainment of science and engineering

Ph.D.s has grown at a rate of 6.8 percent per year

since 1973, are likely to increase their share of doctorates in these fields, while that of men will probably continue to decline. Foreign nationals will

undoubtedly continue to be strongly represented

among science and engineering Ph. D.s.

The working assumption for this document is

that near-term graduate enrollments will remain

constant and Ph.D. production will remain within

about 10 percent of its current level. In the longer

run, the strong market for science and engineering Ph. D.s that should occur at the turn of the

‘“The Technological Marketplace (Washington, DC: Scientific

Manpower Commission, May 1985), p. 11: and Condition of Education, 1985, op. cit., pp. 128-129.

Figure 2-14.—Trends in Doctor’s Degrees

Conferred, by Sex of Recipient

100,000

80,000 “

60,000 —

Total

40,000 —

 -*-*-- -

● - .

20,000 Mal e Femal e

-*~* -&-*_ *

--- .

--0 -

0

---* *

&

- 

I

1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1994

Year ending

SOURCE U S Department of Education, Nallonal Center for Education

Statlstlcs, Condltwn of Education, ?985, p 129

century could lead to an increase in the number

of annual doctorates awarded in those fields as

students are attracted into them by career opportunities. This development will be discussed in

chapter 3 when we examine the future demand

for science and engineering doctoral degree

holders.
Chapter 3

Demographic Trends and the

Academic Market for Science

and Engineering Ph. D.s
Contents

Page

The Near-Term Decline . . . . . . . . . 55

Problems With Projecting the Demand for

New Faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

Implications of the Near-Term Trends . . . . . . . . 64

The Further Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Industrial Employment of Science and

Engineering Ph.D.s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Postdoctoral Appointments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Supply of and Demand for

Engineering Faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

U.S. Education and Utilization of

Foreign Scientists and Engineers . . . 83

List of Tables

Table No.. Page

3-1. Type of Employer of Doctoral Scientists

and Engineers (1940-82 Graduates)

by Field of Ph.D. 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

3-2. Type of Employer of Doctoral Scientists

and Engineers (1977-82 Graduates)

by Field of Ph.D., 1983 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

3-3. Selected Characteristics of Doctoral

Scientists in Business and Industry . . . . . . . 72

3-4. Comparison of 1979 Employment

Situations of Fiscal Year 1972 Bioscience

Ph.D. Recipients Who Took Postdoctoral

Appointments Within a Year After Receipt

of Their Doctorates With the Situations

of Other Fiscal Year 1972 Graduates

Who Have Never Held Appointments. . . . . 78

3-5. Comparison of 1979 Employment

Situations of Fiscal Year 1972 Physics

Ph.D. Recipients Who Took Postdoctoral

Appointments Within a Year After Receipt

of Their Doctorates With the Situations

of Other Fiscal Year 1972 Graduates

Who Have Never Held Appointments . . . . . 79

3-6. Comparison of 1979 Employment

Situations of Fiscal Year 1972 Chemistry

Ph.D. Recipients Who Took Postdoctoral

Appointments Within a Year After Receipt

of Their Doctorates With the Situations

of Other Fiscal Year 1972 Graduates

Who Have Never Held Appointments . . . . 79

3-7. Origin of Foreign Students Within Fields

of Study, 1983-84 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

List of Figures

Figure No. Page

3-I. Actual and Steady-State Age

Distributions Full-Time Doctoral Faculty

at Ph.D. Granting Institutions, ‘1978 . . . . 56

3-2. Combined Death-Retirement Rate,

Percent of Faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56

3-3. Annual Number of New Hires Based

on Projections . . . , . . . . . 57

3-4. Annual New Hires by Field . . . . . . . . . . . 58

3-5. New Hires by Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

3-6. Replacement Demand As a Percentage

of the Total Academically Employed—

Science and Engineering, 1983. . . . . . . . . . . 60

3-7. New Ph.D.s Per lOO Academic Job

Openings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61

3-8. Sensitivity of Hiring Projections to

Variations in Input Parameters . . . . . . . . 62

3-9. Annual Number of New Hires Based

on Projections . . . . . . . . . 65

3-Io. Annual Hiring, Science and Engineering

Faculty, Extreme Cases. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

3-11. Annual Hiring, Science and Engineering

Faculty, Middle Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

3-12. Projected Annual Hiring: Physical

Scientists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

3-13. Projected Annual Hiring: Life Scientists 69

3-14. Projected Annual Hiring: Social

Scientists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

3-15. New Ph.D. Hiring: Science and

Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

3-16. Possible Levels of Supply and Demand

for Physicists Within Each Five-Year

Period, 1981-2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

3-17. Percent ofPh.D. Recipients From U.S.

Universities Planning Postdoctoral

Study Immediately After Receiving the

Doctorate, Selected Disciplines, 1958-82. . 77

3-18. Percent of Bioscientists Planning

Postdoctoral Study Who Had Held

Appointments Longer Than 2 to 5 Years,

by Year of Doctorate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

3-19. Comparison of Academic-Industry

Engineering Ph.D. Salaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

3-20. Total Foreign Enrollment in U.S.

Institutions of Higher Education . . . . . . . . . 84

3-21. Educational Attainment of Scientists and

Engineers, by Immigrant Status, 1982 . . . . 86
Chapter 3

Demographic Trends and the Academic

Market for Science and Engineering Ph.D.s

THE NEAR-TERM DECLINE

Nowhere does a confluence of demographic

trends produce more dramatic results than in the

projected hiring pattern for new Ph. D.s in the Nation’s universities and colleges. Two trends are at

work here. First, the decline in higher education

enrollments projected for the 1982-97 time period

by the National Center for Education Statistics

(NCES) and others (see chapter 2) should reduce

the total demand for faculty proportionately. The

subsequent increase in probable enrollments over

the 1997-2010 period should lead to an increase

in the size of the professorial.

A second trend has to do with faculty retirements, and reflects an earlier demographic event

—the spectacular growth in college faculty that

accompanied the arrival of the post-World VVar

II baby boom generation on campus in the 1960s

and early 1970s. The near tripling in full-time

equivalent (FTE) higher education enrollments

that took place between 1960 and 1975 (from 3

to 8.5 million) was accompanied by an equivalent near tripling in the size of the full-time instructional staff (from 154,000 to 440,000 ).1 This

created an age distribution among college and

university faculty in the late 1970s that was heavily skewed toward 35 to 40 year olds and away

from 50 to 65 year olds. Figure 3-1 compares the

actual age distribution of faculty in 1978 with a

model age distribution that would be characteristic of a steady-state equilibrium with constant

faculty size. ’ The overrepresentation of 30 to 40

year olds, and underrepresentation of 55 to 65

year olds are quite obvious.

As a result of this skewed age distribution, the

rate of retirement of college and university faculty

is low and will continue to remain so until the

‘Amerlcdn C~~uncl] t~n Educatl[~n, 1484-85 Fact BfJt)L on ~~gher

~’ciucat]on t ~e~i }’t)rk >lach!]]]an, 1Q84 ), tab]e 114

‘N’~tl(~nal I?ewarch Ct)uncll, J?esearc.fi Excellence Through the }’ear

XXK7 ( ~i’a>hingt<~n, DC. Natl(>nal Acaclem}’ 01 Scwncw, 1 o7Q ~, p 1 Q.

early 1990s. Figure 3-2 shows the combined death

and retirement rates projected for the major

science and engineering fields through the course

of the century by Charlotte Kuh.3 A “steady state”

rate, assuming all faculty work for 35 years, from

receipt of Ph.D. at age 30 to retirement at age 65,

and no faculty growth, would be 2.5 to 3.0 percent per year. 4 It is clear that none of the fields

displayed in figure 3-2 reach that rate until the

90s, and only the social sciences surpass 2.5 percent per year before 1994. Thus the period of low

faculty retirement and death rates coincides with

the period of possibly declining student enrollments.

The confluence of these two trends leads to a

period of extremely weak demand for new doctorates in academia from the early 1980s through

the mid-1990s. Figure 3-3 illustrates the gap between the projected demand for new faculty,

which averages 6,500 to 16,000 per year during

this period, ’ and annual awards of doctoral degrees, which average about 30,000 per year. This

compares quite unfavorably with the 1960s when,

as shown in chapter 2, the supply of new Ph. D.s

averaged 17,000 per year and the demand for

faculty (including both doctoral and nondoctoral

faculty) averaged 26,000 per year. It is also considerably worse than the situation in the early

1970s, when the supply of new Ph. D.s averaged

31,000 per year and the demand for faculty

(growth plus replacements) also averaged about

31,000 per year, according to OTA analysis. ” It

‘Ibid,, p. 23.

‘Ibid., p. 2-I

William G. B{)w en, I<efort of the l’rewckn~( I’r]nceton, N] 1)rlnct’-

ton University>’, April 1 Q8 11, p. 20: Charl<~t tt> Kuh and I<[~\’ [{adnt>r

[’reserving d LcIst Generation, report t (1 the L-a rneg]c C-t) u nc 11 on

Policy Studies In Higher Education, Oct,~ber 1078, p Q.

t Accc~rdin~ to the Nati(~nal Center for EducatI[~n Statist [cs there

~j’ere 403,700 FTE tacuit>r emp]o>’ed ]n 1 Q70, 502,700 In 1 Q75 and

5~8,700 In 1480 That tran~]ates t[l ~r(~w.th rates c}f 1o,800 per ~re~r

between 1970 and 1o75 and 5,200 per year between 1Q75 and 1~80,

U.S. Department ot Education, C(~ncf]tion of ~clucat~on ( \\’a~hln~-

1! , )Iff)l]>, t.1 / t1}1 / 1T55
56

1

I

15

Figure 3.1 .—Actual and Steady-State Age Distributions,

Full-Time Doctoral Faculty at Ph.D.-Granting Institutions, 1978

. , ` ` `

.

. 

l m an . . .

Age

SOURCE National Research Council, Research Excellene Through the Year 2000 (Washington, DC National Academy Press, 1979), p 19

Figure 3-2—Combined Death-Retirement Rate, Percent of Faculty

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1976 1980 1988

Year

1992 1996

Life sciences Social sciences Physical sciences Mathematics Engineering

SOURCE National Research Council, Research Excellence through the year 2000 (Washington, DC National Academy Press, 1979) p 23
5 7

Figure 3-3.—Annual Number of New Hires Based on Projections

35,000

30,000

25,000

10,000

5,000

0

PhD.s awarded/yr (1983)

31,00 0

 - ————— — — — — — .— — — - ———— -— — —— -— ———— —— — — — —— —— — — — — — — — — -

25,400

19,000

6

18,

15,850 15,300

6,400

9,800

1980-85 1985-90 1990-95

Five-year intervals

’00

—

1995-00

0 Princeton model Kuh-Radner model

u

OTA calculated from historical data

50URC ES w III an) G Bu w en Report o f fhe Presfdeq f I Prl nceton NJ Prl n ceton Un I Y c rs I I ~ A OrI( 1981 I P 20 and C Ku h and R Radner Preser\ (ng d L osf Ge oeraf~on

report I o the Carneq }e Cou nc I I 01 Po( Icy Stud Ies I n t- I gher Edocat (on Or to her 1978 p 40

is roughly comparable to the late 1970s, when

31,500 doctorates were awarded annually, but the

number of new faculty slots averaged approximately 19,000 per year. Although over 40 percent of all science and engineering Ph. D.s enter

industry or government, it is important to remember that most analysts assume that no more than

— -.

? t>lfl}![dt ‘{ {r<]>}> /, i ?

ton, DC: U.S Government Printing Office, 1985), table 2.12, p.

110 According to the National Research Council the combined death

and retirement rule for Iaculty in the 197os was about 1.2 percent

per }ear, Natlt>nal Re~earch Council, op. cit., p. 23, This translates

int~l t(~tal de~ths and retirements (~t 4,200 per year between lQ70

and 1Q75 and 0,000 per year between 1975 and 1980, Charlotte Kuh

and Ro}’ l{adner report tenured and nontenured quit rates of 0.5

and 4 percent per year ]n the mid- 1970s; Kuh and Radner, op. cit.,

table A-4, p, 41. Using those quit rates and the ratio of tenured to

nontenured faculty reported by Kuh and Radner in the same source

( 70:30) reslgnat it~ns can be est I mated to be 6,300 per year trom 1970

to I Q75 and 7,800 per }’ear from IQ75 to 1~80 Adding growth plus

retirement plus resignations tt>r each 5-year period gives the total

annual demand for new Iacult} ot 31,000 tor 1o70-75 and IQ,000

tor 1Q75-80 reported in the text,

50 or 60 percent of all new faculty positions will

be awarded to holders of the doctoral degree. The

remainder will go to M.A. s, M.D. s, J.D. s, D. D.S. S,

and other first professional degree holders.

This decline in academic positions available to

new Ph. D.s was first projected in the early 1970s

by Alan Cartter. His projections were refined and

modified by a number of analysts, including Roy

Radner, Charlotte Kuh, and Louis Fernandez7 between 1976 and 1980, but the basic findings remained the same. Kuh and Radner were so disturbed by the implications of this finding for the

careers of young scholars that they entitled their

—

‘Alan Cartter, Ph. D.s and the Academic Labor Afarket (New

York: McGraw-Hill, 1976); Louis Fernandez, LJ. S. Doctorate Facu)f_tr

After the Boom; Demographic Projections to 1995, Technical Report No. ~, Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Educatlonr October 1 Q78; Kuh and Radner, op. cit.; Roy Radner and L.

S. Miller, Demancl and Supp/J’ ~n L’. S. Higher Education a report

to the Carneg]e Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, IQ7~.

52-6~+7 O - 85 - 3 (QL 3)
58

Figure 3.4.—Annual New Hires by Field

Io,ooc

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0

Ph. D.s awarded/yr

1976 1980

1983)

1984 1988

Year

1992 1996 2000

Life sciences Social sciences

SOURCE National Research Council, The Demand for New Facu/fy m Science and Englneerlf19, 7979 (Washln9ton DC National Academy press 1980) PP 176 and 177

study for the Carnegie Council on Policy Studies

in Higher Education, Preserving a Lost Generation: Policies to Assure a Steady Flow of Young

Scholars Until the Year 2000.

In 1978 the National Research Council (NRC)

asked Kuh and Radner to adapt their forecasts to

science and engineering fields, as part of a study

on Research Excellence Through the Year 2000

(reference 2, above). Using National Science Foundation (NSF) and NRC data, Kuh and Radner prepared a set of projections for the number of new

faculty hires that would be required each year

from 1978 to 2000 for science and engineering as

a whole, and for the major broad field categories. Those projections are summarized in figures

3-4 and 3-5 which also compare the number of

new hires with the number of doctoral degrees

awarded in 1983.8 As can be seen, Kuh and Radner predict a weak academic market for science

and engineering Ph. D.s from the early 1980s to

the early 1990s followed by sustained growth

through the year 2000. (The apparent growth in

new hires in the physical sciences between 1980

and 1988 is the artifact of a spuriously high nontenured quit rate built into the model for that

group. )

—.. —

‘National Research Council, The Demand for New Faculty in

Science and Engineering, 2979 (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1980), pp. 62-63, 176-177.
59

————— —

Figure 3-5.–New Hires by Field

6,000

5,000

4,000

—

3

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

Ph.D.s awarded/yr (1983)

1976 1980

Mathematical sciences ❑ Physical sciences

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Year

Engineering

SOURCE National Research Cour,cli The Demand for New Facu/ty In Science and fng~neeclrrg 1979 (Wash lngfon DC National Academy Press, 1980} PP 1 /6 and 177

PROBLEMS WITH PROJECTING THE DEMAND FOR NEW FACULTY

To determine whether or not Kuh and Radner’s

projections of a hiring decline from 1983 to 1995

are correct it would be useful to compare their

near-term (1975-83) projections with recent historical experience. Unfortunately, that is a very

difficult task, for two reasons, First, and most serious, is the extraordinary fact that no organization—not NSF, nor NRC, nor NCES—actually

measures the number of new faculty appointed

in a given year. Thus we cannot compare projections with any directly observed data. g

91n Its most recent survey of Ph.D.-granting science and engineering departments the National Science Foundation asked chairmen

to estimate the number of new full-time permanent appointments

made in 1983, Unfortunately, this is a limited sample, and the rePeter Syverson and Lorna Foster of NRC have

attempted to infer hiring rates indirectly from

NRC’s biannual Survey of Doctoral Recipients

(SDRS), a longitudinal study of the career patterns

of a lo-percent sample of science, engineering, and

humanities Ph.D.s. Comparing responses to the

1981 and 1983 SDRS, Syverson and Foster estimate the growth in the number of faculty positions as “the change in the number of academically employed respondents between 1981 and

1983” and attrition as “the proportion of respond-

————

suits have not yet been published. Moreover, NSF has some reservations about the accuracy of reporting on this question. Personal

communication from Christine Wise, Science Resource Studies Division, National Science Foundation, Sept. 23, 1985.
60

ents who no longer reported academic employment” in 1983.10 Syverson and Foster find that

“even when the academic labor market is in an

overall steady state, as it now appears to be, there

continues to be demand on the order of 5 to 7 percent” for both replacement and growth. See figure 3-6 for the percentages by field. Comparing

annual doctoral degree production for 1983 with

the calculated number of job openings they find

ratios ranging from about 190 new Ph. D.s per 100

academic job openings in engineering and physical science to 109 per 100 in mathematics and

computer science, with the life and social sciences

directly in the middle.ll (See figure 3-7.)

For individual fields we can compare Syverson

and Foster’s calculated new hires with Kuh and

Radner’s projected new hires for 1983. The results

are displayed below.

Although the totals for science and engineering

are reasonably close, there are clearly serious discrepancies between the projections and the calculated new hires in all fields, with the greatest

differences appearing in the social sciences and

engineering. The fact that some fields are substantially overprotected while others are underprojected indicates that the problem is probably not

simply one of a lack of comparability in the populations being studied.

A second factor limiting the ability to treat projections from models such as that of Kuh and Radner as precise numerical predictions is the extreme

sensitivity of those projections to assumptions

made by the modellers about certain key parameters connecting enrollment to the demand for

-—— lop~t~~ Syver50n and Lorna FOSter~ “New Ph. D.s and the Academic Labor Market, ” Office of Science and Engineering Personnel

Staff Paper No. 1, typescript, p. 2.

Illbjd,, pp. 3 and 10.

Figure 3-6.—Replacement Demand As a

Percentage of the Total Academically

Employed—Science and Engineering, 1983

Physical science Life science Engineering

30,273 46,566 16,382

Math/computer science Social science

13,185 53,449

SOURCE Peter Syverson and Lorna Foster, New Ph, D s arrcf the Acadern/c

Labor Markef (Washington, DC: National Research Council, 1984),

pp 4 and 7

faculty. These parameters include retirement

rates, tenure and promotion rates, voluntary “quit

rates, ” and variations in the overall ratio of faculty

to students from year to year. Robert Klitgaard

reports that “reasonable variations” in one parameter alone, “quit rates, ” lead to projections of new

hires differing by a factor of 5 or 6 by 1985. ’2

IZRobert E. K]jtgaard, ?’~e Decline of the Best? Discussion paper

No. 65 D (Cambridge, MA: John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, May 1979), p. 16.

New Academic Hires, by Science and Engineering Field, 1983

. ,-

,. .-

$$werson as ~. .+ . . “ . ~.. KWtadncr Syversoh % of K-R

Physical’ schkw . .“. . , ● . . . . . . . . ● , . , m- , , . , , . . . . . . .~ 1,639 w)

Mathtmatid scienm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,160 &lo

~=

(m p-cd

... .., .., ... .., ... ,., ,’”, ., $,,,.... 893 1,246 (150 percent)

* * . . . . + < . * . . ” . . . . ., . * . * . . * ***......

So@ @elK@

4,348

. ~’~ &~P=@@ 3179 . .- -=-=-.

..?. .*** 4q. .*. .*. ::; *~; * ~..*...*. ,&6w “ ’ peqmo

.

Total ‘ “

-

V****.*** ●  .... . ** *P*%.** *****..**. ● 10;1$7”’ M,714 (105 percQnt)
Figure 3-7.— New Ph. D.s Per 100 Academic

Job Openings

Science and Engineering, 1983

I 1

scienc e scienc e scienc e computer

scienc e

Humanities, 1983

‘

o o

~

I 154

150

100

50

0 B

Other

huma n

Music Foreign History English

L & L Amer.

SOURCE Peter Svverson and Lorna Foster. New FM D s and the Acadern/c

Labor ~arke( (Washington, DC National Research Council 1984),

pp 4 and 7

Lee Hansen and Karen Holden have calculated

the effect of changing the mandatory retirement

age from 65 to 70. They find that a 5-year shift

in the retirement age assumed in their projection

model causes a 63-percent drop in the projected

number of new faculty hired in the 1987, and a

23-percent drop in projected new faculty hires in

1992. ’3 For 1987, the number of projected new

hires falls from 38.8 percent of its 1977 level to

14.5 percent, while for 1992 the projected percentage declines from 44.2 to 33.9 percent.

Klitgaard, in a provocative essay on the pitfalls

of forecasting academic demand, shows the effects

.-

] ‘W. Lee Hansen and Karen C. Holdenr “Critical Linkages in

Higher Education: Age Composition and Labor Costs, Insurance

,$lathematics & Economics, vo]. 4, No. 1, January 1985, pp. 60-61.

61

of changing assumptions about retirements, “quits,”

promotions, and faculty-student ratios. Taking

a model developed by Louis Fernandez, Klitgaard

simultaneously varies each of the above-mentioned parameters to the limit of its range of uncertainty and then adds or multiplies the variances

produced. The result is depicted in figure 3-8

which shows a variation of a factor of 6 between

the sum (or product) of the extreme highs and the

sum (or product) of the extreme lows of all of the

variables taken together .14

In April 1985, at the request of OTA, NRC convened a panel of academic labor market specialists

to determine whether the projections made in the

late 1970s are still valid, in the light of new data

and subsequent analyses. The panel devoted a

great deal of attention to the many uncertainties

that surround projections of student enrollments,

faculty retirements, “quit rates, ” promotions, tenure decisions, and salaries. However, there was

general agreement that the overall direction of

change projected in the late 1970s was still valid.

According to Michael McPherson, a participant

at both the 1978 and 1985 NRC workshops: 15

One point that is very much worth underlining is that we all seem to be in rough agreement:

the 1970s projections of overall demand for

teachers for the next decade aren’t obviously

wrong. People knew there were uncertainties

when they were made; of course, uncertainties

still exist, but if there is something really wrong

with the projections, it is not anything that we

have detected . . . .

. . . . by and large, all people looking at this

question generally have the same picture of what

will occur. There is much agreement both about

the major quantitative factors impinging on this

set of labor markets and, at a broad level, about

how the market will react to those forces.

There was also substantial agreement that despite the consensus on overall trends, the range

of uncertainty in the factors that influence demand

make any numerical comparisons with predicted

‘“Klitgaard, op. cit., p. 1 9 .

!’~ational Research Council, “Draft Proceedings ot the Workshop on the Forecasting of Demand for University Scientists and

Engineers, ” Apr. 8, 1985, pp. 32 and 4Q.
62

Figure 3-8.—Sensitivity of Hiring Projections to Variations in Input Parameters

18,000 High multiplicative

-- High additive

-Fernandez baseline

— Low multiplicative

 Low additive

I \ - J

\ / \ ’

o 1

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Year

NOTE: The variability represented here does not include uncertainty In enrollments. Calculations and graph by author.

SOURCE Robert E. Klitgaard, The Decline of the Best? Dlscusslon Paper No 65 D (Cambridge, MA John F Kennedy School of Government, Harvard

University, May 1979), p. 19

supply very problematic. McPherson summarized

these uncertainties as follows:16

The workshop discussions . . . . highlighted a

number of complications and qualifications, some

of which were acknowledged in the earlier work.

Among the most important of these were the following:

1. The Research Excellence study focused on

the demand for teaching faculty, but re2. 16 Michae] S. McphersOn, “Numbers and Quality: Analyzing the

Market for University Scientists and Engineers,” National Research

Council, Forecasting of Demand for University Scientists and Engineers: Proc*”ngs ofa Workshop (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1985), p. 1.

search support generates academic hiring

too, especially in major universities. Some

universities are evolving elaborate patterns

of nonfaculty research staffing, partly in response to anticipated declines in teaching

positions. To the extent that universities can

successfully decouple teaching from research

hiring in this way, the effects of fluctuations

in enrollment on research effectiveness may

be mitigated.

Research Excellence and related studies

treated the pace of retirements as mechanically determined by faculty demographics,

whereas in fact retirement should be seen as

a decision influenced by, among other
63

things, the economic incentives facing retirees.

3. Research Excellence followed the modeling

work of Radner and Kuh in supposing that

universities would respond to declining demand for faculty by reducing the rates at

which they promoted people to tenure . . . .

So far that is apparently not happening:

universities are hiring more faculty off the

tenure track but continue to promote tenuretrack faculty as before.

4. The models on which Research Excellence

relied dealt with academia as a whole, but

in fact different segments of the academic

system may behave very differently in the

years ahead.

5. It is similarly important to recognize that

different fields within science and engineering are likely to fare very differently, owing

both to variations in research funding and

in student course preferences.

Because of these uncertainties, participants at

the workshop generally felt that it is more important to analyze existing data and refine our understanding of how the academic labor market works

than to make detailed projections of the numbers

of Ph. D.s required or produced in specific fields.

In the words of Stephen Dresch:’7

. . . [we need] to have some reasonably sustained work in this area . . . nobody systematically asks, “What data should be collected to answer interesting questions?” Therefore, a lot of

money used to collect data is, in fact, wasted because the data collected has fatal flaws: it tracks

some flows in the system but doesn’t permit tracking other flows, a situation that could very easily have been rectified if one had been striving for

a complete picture. A lot of data, in fact, is incomplete and can’t be spliced together. The other

side is that, for all practical purposes, we really

don’t want to pay anyone to learn anything with

these data. What we essentially want is to “buy”

the aura of rationality in action . . .

McPherson summarized the situation as follows: 18

On the qualitative side, we really need to understand better how this system behaves, recognizing that institutions and individuals adjust

when conditions change. The simplest kinds of

manpower forecasting models assume a great deal

of rigidity—that people in institutions just continue to do what they used to do in the face of

radical changes in conditions—but we know that

is false, because in one way or another gaps get

filled . . . . It is in the adjustment process that better qualitative understanding is needed. For that

purpose the quantitative models are not really so

much intended to be accurate predictions of the

future as guidelines that show us where the adjustments will have to occur and direct our understanding.

Now, to achieve this qualitative understanding,

we don’t really want to develop a super-elaborate,

sophisticated structural model . . . . Instead, we

should study the many variables—wage behavior,

tenure policies and how they respond, how universities handle nonfaculty research positions—

and build up from that a better understanding,

not so much to predict but to understand how this

beast operates. What we need is more basic research into these labor markets.

Participants at the workshop listed the following items for research on the qualitative aspects

of the academic labor market: 19

1.

2.

3.

4.

How is the quality of students attracted to

advanced study influenced by changes in labor market conditions? Will declining demand cause the best students differentially

to select themselves out of scientific careers?

How do academic departments cope with

hiring shortages like those now being experienced in engineering, and with what implications for research and teaching effectiveness?

How, and how effectively, do universities

respond to reductions in demand for teaching faculty?

What factors influence the mobility of experienced Ph. D.s, both among fields and between

academic and nonacademic employment?

Peter Syverson of NRC summarizes the state

of the art of forecasting supply and demand in

the academic market as follows :20

At present our ability to forecast changes in the

academic market is decidedly limited. For anything more refined than seat-of-the-pants planning, a far more precise model must be developed

to accurately reflect the academic market up to

and beyond the turn of the century.

‘

-National Research Council, “Draft Proceedings, ” op. cit., p. 29.

IsIbid., p. 51.

19 Mcpher50n, Op. Cit., p. 4.

2oSyverson, op. cit., p. 1 2 .
64

IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEAR-TERM TRENDS

The implications of the overall trends projected

by labor market specialists in the late 1970s, and

confirmed by the NRC workshop in April 1985,

were discussed at great length in conjunction with

the early forecast of a declining academic labor

market for Ph. D.s in the 1980s and early 1990s.

Kuh and Radner, for example, in their work on

Preserving a Lost Generation argued that:zl

It is in both the national interest and the interest of individual institutions to assure a moderate but steady flow of young doctorate scholars

into academia . . . . An academic enterprise in

which half as many young faculty did twice as

much teaching could not help but result in a considerably smaller amount of research, with considerable consequence for U.S, science . . . .

When fewer and fewer people can be hired, the

predictors (of creative and lasting scholarship) are

likely to become more and more conservative.

The young Ph.D. who has two published articles

in addition to his thesis is likely to be chosen over

the young Ph.D. who has an interesting area of

research with a longer gestation period. “Mistakes, ” after all, are much more costly when they

can be spread over fewer people. But, in fact, the

research with the longer gestation period may be

more productive in the long run . . . . Programs

are needed which allow [the research universities]

to take some “long shots” in the hiring of young

scholars. The larger the pool, the more likely that

the best scholars will be found in it.

The 1979 National Academy of Sciences report

on Research Excellence Through the Year 2000:

The Importance of Maintaining a Flow of New

Faculty Into Academic Research, cited above,

enumerated in some detail the possible consequences for science of the projected decline in academic hiring of Ph. D.s. According to the Committee, “damage to the nation’s research effort is

likely to result from the expected constriction in

the flow of new faculty” for a number of reasons :

1. the rate of research innovation, the inflow

of new ideas, and the vitality of the research

environment will be impaired;

2. continuity in the education and socialization

of succeeding generations of researchers will

be threatened; and

3. the perceived lack of opportunities for an

academic career may discourage able and

creative young people from pursuing careers

in basic scientific research.

The Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in

Higher Education discussed the “implication of the

demographic depression for faculty” in its 1980

report on the future of higher education :23

The tenured professoriate in 4-year colleges will

keep on aging with the ages of the modal group

rising from 36 to 45 in 1980 to 56 to 65 in 2000.

This will increase the age gap between students

and faculty, raise the average cost of faculty salaries, and make it hard to introduce new fields,

new courses, new subject matter. Tenure ratios,

which were 50 percent as recently as 1969, have

now risen to 75 percent; and colleges encounter

new rigidities in redeploying their resources.

Some faculty members are potentially much

more affected than are others: In the East and

North more than in the South and West; in comprehensive colleges more than in community colleges; in less selective more than in more selective 4-year liberal arts colleges; in doctorate

granting universities more than in research universities.

The response to these cries of alarm from distinguished educators and analysts is summarized

in a review of the current state of the academic

labor market in late 1984 by Michael McPherson.

He finds that, to a remarkable degree, “the policy issues identified in the late 1970s and early

1980s” relative to the declining academic market

for Ph.D.s “remain central and largely unresolved

today. ”24

——

‘ ‘Three Thc)usdnd Futures: The Next T~~ent,v Years for Higher

Education (San Francisco, CA: Jossey Bass, 1980), pp. 80-82.

‘“Michael S. McPherson, “The State of Academic Labor Markets, r’

November 1984 draft, p. 5, to be published in B.L. R. Smith (cd.),

The Stdte of Crdduate Educdtion (Washington, DC: The Brookings

Institution, 1985).
65

THE FURTHER FUTURE

All of the studies of the late 1970s ended their

projections at the year 2000. Unfortunately that

is just the beginning of a pronounced “rebound”

period, when enrollments are expected to increase

and large numbers of faculty hired in the 1960s

and early 1970s are expected to retire. McPherson expresses the conventional wisdom when he

states that “to the degree that student and faculty

demographics are determining factors, data available now suggest that recovery will come quite

late in this century and will not be strong.”25 However, projections for the first decade of the 2lst

century make the transition to growth appear considerably less smooth than McPherson argues. To

examine the “rebound” in greater depth, OTA performed its own analysis of the period 2000-10,

*

s

Ibid., p. 29.

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000 f

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Figure 3-9.— Annual Number of

using the model developed by Herring and Sanderson for the 1981 Report of the President of

Princeton University cited above. OTA first extended the Princeton model to the year 2015, using

the same values for the input parameters as Herring and Sanderson, and population trends for

2000 to 2015 from the Census Bureau Projections

of the Population, middle series, cited in chapter

2. The results, displayed as the white bars on

figure 3-9, show a tripling in demand for new

faculty, from 6,500 per year between 1980 and

1995 to 20,000 per year between 1995 and 201O.

OTA then revised the Princeton model to incorporate a different set of assumptions about

resignations and retirements, which OTA believes

track recent data on these two phenomena more

closely than those of Herring and Sanderson. The

New Hires Based on Projections

Ph, D,s awardedlyr (1983)

-— — — —— . —— — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — - — — — — — — — —— — . . — - — — —— —— — — — \ —— — .

/

1980-85 1985-90

!

1990-95

_

Five-year intervals

r

2010-15

• 1

Princeton model

• 1

Revised model

SOURCES Wllllam G Bowen, Report of the Pres~denf (Princeton. NJ Princeton Unlverslty, April 1981), and Off Ice of Technology Assessment analysls
66

results are displayed as the striped bars on figure

3-9. As can be seen, the OTA assumptions lead

to a level of new faculty hiring in the 1980-95 time

frame that is nearly double that of Herring and

Sanderson—12,000 per year. In the first decade

of the 21st century, if the assumptions in the OTA

simulation hold, the number of new academic

hires per year could reach 25,000 per year, or double that of the early 1990s.

Hansen and Holden project that new faculty

hires could increase by a factor of 4 between 1987

levels and 2002. In their worst case scenario, in

which most faculty choose to retire at age 70, the

increase between 1987 and 2002 would be a factor of 10.26

The implications of this dramatic reversal of

fortunes for universities and new science and engi- -

neering Ph .D. s have not been examined to date,

Although it appears that the academic demand

for new faculty will remain below the annual supply of new Ph. D.s, even in the boom years 2000

to 2010, that situation could, in fact, change dramatically if graduate school enrollments drop

sharply in the 1990s due to the weak market for

new-faculty in that time period. In other words,

if graduate students respond to the market signals of the early 1990s by decreasing their enrollments in doctoral programs, there could be too

few of them to meet the surging demand that will

occur at the turn of the century. To avoid this

potential market failure, it would be prudent to

monitor new academic hires and, if the trends discussed above materialize, possibly institute countercyclical support programs in the early 1990s.

Even if the supply of new Ph.D.s increases to

meet demand in the early 21st century, a countercyclical policy for the early 1990s maybe worth

considering for a second reason. The large number of new faculty hired in the 1995-2010 time

period will produce an age distribution among

faculty in the second decade of the 21st century

that is heavily skewed toward the young, as was

the age distribution in the late 1970s. (See figure

3-1, above. ) This could lead to a repeat of the low

retirement, low replacement situation of the 1980-

95 time period. To avoid a repetition of the “boom

and bust” cycle of the 1960s and late 1970s it may

-—— .— --——

‘

bHansen and Holden, op. cit., p. 60,

be worthwhile to attempt to formulate a countercyclical policy to stimulate demand in the early

1990s.

The science and engineering fields appear to follow the general academic market fairly closely.

OTA applied a revised version of the Princeton

model to the most recent data from NSF on the

age distribution of doctoral scientists and engineers employed at 4-year colleges and universities.27 Using 1983 as a base year, OTA was able

to project the number of new junior faculty

appointments that would be made at 5-year intervals from 1983 to 2013, under different assumptions about retirements, resignations, and enrollments in science and engineering courses. Figure

3-10 shows the variation in the demand for new

science and engineering faculty over the 30-year

period under two extreme assumptions: one of

high demand for science and engineering faculty,

high rates of retirement among senior faculty, and

high rates of resignation among junior faculty;

and one of low demand, low retirements, and low

resignations. These appear to represent reasonable estimates of the extreme levels of possible academic hiring of new science and “engineering

Ph. D.s over the next three decades.

To refine its analysis, OTA applied its model

to historical data on Ph.D. scientists and engineers

in educational institutions for the years 1973 to

1983 published by NSF.28 OTA found that a high

demand, low retirement, low resignation scenario

best fit historic data. Two versions of such a scenario are displayed in figure 3-11 which represents

an educated guess based on historical experience

as to the likely range of academic hiring of science

and engineering Ph. D.s over the next 30 years.

The number of science and engineering doctorates

appointed by colleges and universities in the 1977-

82 time frame, as calculated by OTA from NSF

data, is also displayed in figure 3-11 as an average number of new hires per year over the 5-year

period. As can be seen, the number of new scientists and engineers appointed by colleges and

universities declines significantly in the 1983-98

time frame. It then increases to more than 9,OOO

per year in the 1998-2013 time frame. Similar pro-

‘“Characteristics of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers in the United

States: 2983, NSF 85-303 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1985), table B-5, pp. 19-23.

‘“Ibid., table 3, pp. x and xi.
6 7

-

jections for individual fields follow similar patterns, as can be seen from figures 3-12, 3-13, and

3-14 which show the hiring trends for the physi15,000

12,000

3,000

0

Figure 3-10.—Annual Hiring, Science and

cal sciences, the life sciences, and the social

sciences under the two scenarios most consistent

with past experience.

Engineering Faculty, Extreme Cases

1983-88 1988-93 1993-98 1998-03 2003-08

Five-year intervals

Low assumption High assumption

SOURCE Office of Technology Assessment

INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT OF SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING PH.D.s

The trends discussed above in the academic employment of science and engineering Ph.D. s must

be placed in the context of the availability of alternative careers for those professionals. As tables

3-1 and 3-2 show, educational institutions employ

only 52 percent of all Ph.D. scientists and engineers, and less than 48 percent of those who received their doctorate after 1977. The variation

from field to field is substantial, with mathematics, social science, and biology having twothirds or more of their Ph.D.s employed in academia, while chemistry and engineering are at onethird or less academic employment. By comparison, in the humanities 83 percent of all Ph. D.s

are employed at educational institutions .29 Of

course, the principal alternative market for science

and engineering Ph.D. s is industry, which has in-

‘*National Research Council, ScJence, Engineer~ng and Hurnan~-

ties Doctorates in the U. S.: 1o83 Profile (Washington, DC. National

Academy Press, lq83}, pp. 36, 37, and 74.
Figure 3-11 .—Annual Hiring, Science and Engineering Faculty, Middle Cases

15,000

12,000

9,000

1982 1983-68 1988-93 1993-98 1998-03 2003-08 2008-13

Five-year intervals

 Historic assumption ❑ 1982 hiring level Middle assumptio n

SOURCE Of flceof Technology Assessment

2,00

1 ,5a

1,000(

50(

(

Figure 3-12.—Projected Annual Hiring: Physical Scientists

1983-68 1968-93 1993-98

Five-year intervals

❑ Historic assumption ❑ Middleclass assumption

SOURCE Of Office of Technology Assessment
69

4,000

3.000

1,000

(

Figure 3-13. —Projected Annual Hiring: Life Scientists

1983-88

,x, ,

,,, , ,

 ‘! ‘,’s ‘f’! ‘!

. ‘t’, ‘!’.’ ,~,~i’ I

,1. frr!l !,, !,,,, !

,,, ,! .,!

‘, ‘t ‘,’! ‘! ‘,’! ‘

, ‘ ,’i’ , ‘, ‘ , ‘ , ‘ ,’) ‘ ,,< , r , , . , !

,<, ,,,

‘ , ‘,’,’, ‘,’,‘‘‘ , ‘

,,’.,,,,,

,.!! ,!,>

,,!

,,”.

,,,,

1,!,

,,,,

‘,1!’,’

‘!’!’? ,,,(

/,!,,,

,,,

:,:,:,:

,,; l:,;’

‘>’,’<’ :!:,:’;

x:

1988-93 1993-98 1998-03 2003-08

Fwe-year Intervals

Historlc assumption ❑ Middle assumption

SOURCE Off Ice of Technology Assessment

Figure 3-14. —Projected Annual Hiring: Social Scientists

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

,,, ,

,,, ,

,,1,

2008-13

1983-88 1988-93

Historic assumption Middle assumptio n

1993-98 1998-03

Five-year intervals

2003-08

‘!’?’,’ ‘,;,,’,:,

jrj~i~l

;A;,y

,,, ‘,:$’”,”

‘1’.’),

‘,’.4,’,

!$,’,:

‘!’. ’,1

2008-13
Table 3.1 .—Type of Employer of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers (1940-82 Graduates) by Field of Ph. D., 1983 (in percent)

Field of doctorate

Computer Physics Earth/ Social

Type of employer All fields Mathematics science astronomy Chemistry environment Engineering Agriculture Medicine Biology Psychology science

Employed populatlona

350,900 18,500 2,500 28,100 44,900 12,000 55,000 16,900 12,900 57,600 47.500 55.000

Educational institutions 52.2 73.0 46.5 47.5 3 2 6 4 5 4 3 4 9 5 7 8 5 6 5 64.1 47.1 7 1 8

Business/lndustryO

31 7 19,2 47,7 3 6 3 5 7 3 300 542 224 242 180 275 128

U S Government 7 6 5 1 4 2 108 5,8 179 71 140 7 3 8 7 3 7 7 2

State/local government 2 0 02 01 03 07 33 06 25 28 21 4 7 30

Hospital /clinic 2 8 03 – 0.9 09 01 02 02 5.8 32 127 04

Other nonprofit

organization 3 1 1 8 1.4 4 1 2 2 2 9 2.6 2 2 3 1 3.6 4 1 3 3

Other 0.3 – – — — 01 01 05 01 02 13

No report

—

0 2 0 4 0.1 02 03 0.4 02 04 04 02 02 02 . —

‘I nLluoes full dna

—

parl Itme employerl only

——— — . —

blnrluaes self employeo

SOURCE Na[lonal Resedwh CounM ‘98.3 Profde IUI 36 .37

Table 3-2. —Type of Employer of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers (1977”82 Graduates) by Field of Ph. D., 1983 (in percent)

—.— —.

Field of doctorate

. — — — — . —

Computer Physics/ Earth/

Type of employer All fields Mathematics science astronomy Chemistry environment Engineering Agriculture Medicine

Employed populationa

80,800 3,600 1 .20F 4,300 – 7,00 0 3.000 11,500 3800 3,800 -

Educational Institutions 47.8 7 0 7 51 8 3 5 7 184 4 2 8 321 5 5 7 553

Business/tndustry” 341 21 6 44.3 4 4 0 7 3 6 3 5 3 572 291 2 3 2

U S Government 6 6 5 8 3 0 132 3 8 148 5 8 8 6 7 8

State/local government 3 1 01 — 09 3.5 10 23 22

Hospital/cllnic 4 3 0 8 — 0 9 11 — 0.5 – 73

Other nonprofit

organization 3 7 11 0 9 5 7 2 2 3 0 3 4 2 5 3 7

Other 0 1 — — — — 0.4 – 09 –

No report 02 – 06 – 02 – 09 04 —

‘~lnrluces f Ill dnfl w~t IIrne emolo)ec only

—

‘Incluws self employee

S[, L RCE la!londt Rew,,rch Cwnm “98.1 Poflk DO 3b 37

Biology — —

11,100

59.2

228

77

27

30

4 5

—

02

Social

Psychology science

15,900 15.600

423 648

272 171

32 78

61 49

164 06

44 4.3

04

04 02

.

I

I

I

I

I

I
creased its share of the employed doctorates in

those fields by 10 percent in recent years. In

physics, chemistry, and biology the industrial

share of employed doctoral scientists is 20 percent higher among recent Ph. D.s than it is in the

overall population of doctoral degree holders.

The increasing share of science and engineering Ph .D. s employed in industry is an important

phenomenon that deserves closer scrutiny. In

1973, there were 53,400 Ph.D. scientists and engineers employed in industry, as compared to 129,300

in academia, according to the National Science

Foundation .30 By 1983 the number of industrial

scientists and engineers had more than doubled,

to 113,500, while the number in academia had increased by only 50 percent, to 196,100. The rate

of growth in industry was about 8 percent per year

over the decade while that of academia was more

like 4 percent per year.

Among the different science and engineering

fields, computer scientists, psychologists, and social scientists showed the most dramatic growth

in industry between 1973 and 1983, increasing by

300 to 500 percent (see table 3-3).3] Of course, all

three fields started from very low levels in 1973—

3,000 or less. Engineering and physical science

continued to employ the largest numbers of doctoral scientists and engineers—34,500 and 29,000

respectively in 1983—but their growth rates over

the decade were lowest, at 100 and 46 percent respectively. The number of industrial Ph.D. scientists and engineers whose primary work activity

was research and development doubled over the

decade, but the numbers in consulting, sales and

professional services, and “other” all quadrupled

or quintupled. Fifty percent of the growth over

the decade was in these three non-R&D related

activities.

Even more dramatic, however, was the change

in the relative demand for new Ph.D. scientists

and engineers between industry and academia. Between 1973 and 1975 the number of academic

Ph.D. scientists and engineers increased by 19,700,

while the number of industrial Ph.D. scientists and

——-——.— —.

‘“Science and Engineering Personnel: A National O\’erview, NSF

85-302 fWashlngton, DC: National Science Foundation, 1985), table B-12a, p. 113.

‘

l Characteristics of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers in the United

States: lu83, op. cit., table 4, p. xii-xiii.

71

engineers increased by only 11,200. Between 1981

and 1983, by contrast, the corresponding increases

were 9,OOO for academia and 14,300 for industry.32 Thus the demand for additional science and

engineering Ph. D.s in industry increased from 55

percent of the academic demand in the early

1970s, to 160 percent of the academic demand by

the early 1980s.

To get a complete picture of the academic and

industrial markets for science and engineering

Ph.D,s we would need to add the replacement demand to the growth demands calculated above.

The replacement demand in academia can be easily calculated with the OTA model described

above, and it comes to 8,000 additional science

and engineering Ph. D.s needed in 1981 to 1983.

There is no data on the replacement rate for industrial Ph.D. scientists and engineers, but if we

assume it to be equal to that of academia, or about

2 percent per year, that would generate demand

for an additional 4,OOO of those professionals between 1981 and 1983. The total industrial demand

for new Ph.D. scientists and engineers would

about 18,000 between 1981 and 1983, while the

academic demand was 17,000.

There is evidence, however, that the industrial

demand for new doctoral scientists and engineers

is not wholly supplied by recent Ph. D.s. Based

on a comparison of NSF33 and NRC34 data for the

1977-83 time period, it appears that only twothirds of the additional industrial science and engineering Ph. D.s reported between 1977 and 1983

came from the pool of recent graduates. The rest

were undoubtedly experienced Ph, D.s coming

from academia and the government, and immigrants.

It is difficult to predict the future industrial market for science and engineering Ph. D.s with any

degree of certainty in the absence of an understanding of the causes of the dramatic growth of

the past decade, It is clear, however, that if the

recent growth rate were to continue for another

decade it would generate substantial employment

— .—. .——

“Ibid., tables 3 and 4, pp. x-xiii.

“Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Over\’iet~’, op.

cit., table B-12a, p, 113.

“National Research Council, Science, Engineering, and Humanities Doctorates in the United States: 1983 Profile, op. cit., table

2-8, p. 37.
72 —. —

Table 3.3.—Selected Characteristics of Doctoral Scientists in Business and Industry

Characteristics Number

Total-:. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53,403

Field:

Scientists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35,631

Physical scientists . . . . . . . . . . 19,665

Chemists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15,759

Physicists/astronomers . . . . 3,906

Mathematical scientists . . . . 864

Mathematicians. . . . . . . . . . . 657

Statisticians. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207

Computer/information

specialists . . . . . . . . 1,007

Environmental scientists . . . . 2,204

Earth scientists . . . . . . . . . . . 2,085

Oceanographers . . . . . . . . . 94

Atmospheric scientists . . . . 25

Life scientists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,147

Biological scientists . . . . . . 3,309

Agricultural scientists . . . . . 1,718

Medical scientists ., . . . 2,120

Psychologists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,081

Social scientists . . . . . . . . . . 1,663

Economists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,031

Sociologists/

anthropologists . . . . . . . 125

Other social scientists . . . . 507

Engineers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,772

Aeronautical/astronaut Iocal

engineers . . . . . 639

Chem!al engineers . . . . . . . 3,246

Civil engineers . . . . . . 883

Electrical/electronic

engineers . . 3,424

Mechanical engineers . 1,366

Nuclear engineers . . . . . 666

Other engineers . . . 7,548

Sex :

Men . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52,040

Women . . . . . . . . . . . 1,363

Race:

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48,926

Black. . . . . . . . . . . 298

Asian/Pacific Islander . . . . . 3,099

American Indian/Alaskan

native . . . . . . . 5

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

No report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,044

Ethnicity:

Hispanic ...., . . . . . . . . . . . 264

Nonhispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,859

No report . . . . . . . . 36,280

Age:

Under 30. . 1,999

30-34 . ....:::::::::::: 12,26 7

35-39, . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,435

40-44 .. ::.,. . . . . . . . 8,520

45-49 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.098

50-54 . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,288

55-59, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,874

1973

Percent

loo. o

–

66.7

36.8

29.5

7.3

1.6

1.2

0.4

1.9

4.1

3.9

0.2

(b)

13.4

6.2

3.2

4.0

5,8

3.1

1.9

0.2

0.9

33.3

1.2

6.1

1.7

6.4

2.6

1.2

14.1

97. 4

2 . 6

91. 6

0 . 6

5 . 8

\hl

0.1

2 0

0.5

31.6

679

3.7

230

19,5

16.0

13.3

11,8

7.3

Percent

of total

employed

24.2

19.3

40.5

51.2

22.0

7.1

6.2

14.1

37.1

21.4

24.4

8,3

3.9

12.6

9.0

18.7

19.9

12.4

5.7

10.7

1.9

3.8

49.7

38.3

72.8

28.5

48.5

41.9

52.7

50.4

25.6

8.1

24.2

14.6

30.0

3.5

15,8

19.3

16.8

20,2

26.8

20,6

24.7

24.8

24.1

23.7

26.1

24.9

Median

annual

salary

23,300

23,300

22,700

22,500

23,600

24,100

23,900

25,100

22,300

22,600

22,500

(a)

(a)

23,300

22,800

21,600

26,300

30,000

27,200

29.200

(al

25,200

23,200

25,300

22,700

21.500

23,600

22,300

23,100

23,600

23,300

20200

23,600

23,000

20.800

l

23000

2120 0

2420 0

229OO

1780 0

20,100

22,500

24,900

26800

27,800

27600

--- 1983

Number

113,463

76,963

28,748

22,525

6,223

2,027

1,512

515

6,819

5,154

4,596

217

341

16,444

7,730

3,583

5.131

13,020

6,751

2,779

801

3,171

34,500

1,928

4,788

1,895

7,615

2,596

1,380

14,298

103,272

10,191

97.673

675

13,431

69

76

1.539

1,497

97,974

13,992

2,037

16,432

25,491

26,059

15,900

10,656

7,451

Percent

100.0 -

69.6

25.3

19.9

5.5

1.8

1.3

0.5

6.0

4.5

4.1

0.2

0.3

14.5

6.8

3,2

4.5

11.5

5.9

2,4

0.7

2.8

30,4

1.7

4.2

1.7

6.7

2.3

1.2

12.6

91.0

9,0

86.1

0.6

11.8

0.1

0.1

14

13

86.3

12.3

1.8

14,5

22,5

23.0

14.0

9,4

6.6

Percent

of total

employed

30.7

25.7

44.9

54.5

27.4

12,4

11.1

18.5

56.1

31,3

36.7

12.5

15.5

17.7

14.0

24,6

22.2

27.9

11,4

16.4

6.6

10,5

56,1

52,3

68.5

35,6

60.0

45.9

59,3

57,5

32.2

20.9

29,7

136

45,2

16,5

37,6

277

27.9

30.9

296

31,5

34,1

33,6

32.5

30.7

26.8

23.4

Median

annual

salary

47,000

45,500

45,900

45,600

48,300

42,700

43,600

40,000

42,700

48,500

49,200

(a)

48,600

43,700

41,800

40,100

50,700

48.000

45,400

52,100

36,300

35,600

49,900

47.700

52,400

47,600

51,200

48.100

46,000

48,700

47,900

38,900

48,000

43.900

44,800

ial

Id)

39,800

47,200

47,200

45,200

36,400

38,700

44,100

50,100

50,900

53,100

55.800
73

—

Table 3-3.—Selected Characteristics of Doctoral Scientists in Business and Industry—Continued

Characterstics Number Percen t

60-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,957 3.7

65 and over . . . . . . . . . . 932 1,7

No report . . . . . 33 0.1

Type of employment

Science/engineenng . . . . . 49,398 92.5

Other/unknown field .. , 4,005 7,5

Primary work activity:

Research and development .,. 23,758 44.5

Basic research . . . . . 3,525 6.6

Applied research . . . . . . . . . . 13.212 24.7

Development/design . , 7,021 13,1

Management/

administration . ., . 19,840 37.2

Of R&. D ., ., ., 14,242 26.7

Of other . . . ... 5,598 10.5

Teaching . . . . . . . . 191 0.4

Consul tang..... . . . . 2,781 5 2

Sales/professional services. 3,001 5.6

Other, . 2,988 5,6

No report . . . . . 844 1 6

dN ~, ,Tle~, ~q ~O,n ~1” ted for grou ps A I t h fe wer t han 20 I ~d Iv Id Uals

t L ~,s .j f hdr. ~ 05 i erc ‘n t

NOTE Pe,ce,lts rra~ no! ado to 100 because of .OU ~d!ng

1973

Percent

of total

employed

.

21.7

19.1

33.0

23.9

28.5

33.2

10.3

46,0

82.6

43.0

54.3

28.1

0.2

68.6

37.2

43.0

22,9

.

SOURCE Char.;clermff~-s r ~ Do-l oral Sclent~sfs and f~grneers In [he U~Ited States

opportunities for doctoral scientists and engineers.

Assuming that the 7.8-percent growth rate experienced in the 1970s continues through the 1980s,

and that new science and engineering Ph. D.s continue to account for two-thirds of that growth,

as they did in 1977 to 1983, there would be about

7,OOO new doctoral scientists and engineers hired

by industry each year between 1983 and 1988, and

10,000 hired each year between 1988 and 1993,

Both of those figures exceed the projected academic demand for those years by a considerable

amount. When added to the projected academic

demand for the two time periods, they lead to the

combined demand for new science and engineering Ph. D.s in the two sectors between 1983 and

1993 shown in figure 3-15. As can be seen, the

totals for 1983 to 1993 are quite close to that of

the 1981-83 time period. Thus, the decline in academic hiring over the next decade could be completely compensated for by the increase in industrial demand.

Beyond the next decade, predictions of industrial demand for Ph.D. scientists and engineers

become even more speculative. The continuation

—

1983

Median Percent Median

annual of total annual

salary Number Percent employed —.

salary

27,900

25,800

~a)

23,100

25.700

21,300

21,600

21,300

21,100

27,000

26,300

29,400

la)

25,100

25,400

21.700

23,200

6,153

3,218

66

98,407

15,056

46.525

6,731

23,463

16,331

25,528

20,066

5,462

1,301

10,673

15,581

12,303

1,552

5.4

2.8

0.1

86.7

13.3

41.0

5.9

20.7

14.4

22.5

17.7

4,8

1.1

9.4

13.7

10,8

1,4

27,3

26,5

26.1

30.1

35,9

37.3

11.8

49,5

80.5

41.3

63.9

18.0

1.2

83.7

52.3

50,9

20.0

53,800

60.300

la)

46,700

50,400

43,600

42,100

44.100

43,600

55,900

55,600

60,000

41,700

48.300

48,400

44,500

50,000

f 98.1 iWast] I ng [on DC Nat Ion al Science Fou ndat Ion 1985 I pp x I I and x I I I

of the 7.8-percent growth rate for more than

another decade seems unlikely for two reasons.

First, the numbers of new Ph.D. scientists and

engineers required for 8 percent per year growth

for another decade become so large they are impossible to believe (the industrial sector alone

would require twice as many new Ph .D. s per year

as all sectors required in 1983). Second, the surge

in growth in industrial science and engineering

Ph. D.s is a relatively recent phenomenon. Statistics published by NRC35 show that the percent of

new Ph. D.s planning employment in business and

industry declined steadily for all the science fields

through the 1960s, and only began to increase in

1973. “Until recently the trend has been downward for employment of new science Ph. D.s in

business and industry” NRC wrote in 1978. “Is

a change coming?” it wondered. If the trend

reversed itself in 1973 it seems entirely possible

it could change again in another decade.

“National Research Council, A Century (If Doctorates (Washington, DC: National Academy O( Sciences, 1978), p. 81.
74

—

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Figure 3-15.— New Ph.D. Hiring: Science and Engineering

1981-83 1983-88 1988-93 1993-98 2000 2005

Five-year intervals

Educational institutions Business and industry

SOURCES. Office of Technology Assessment.

The simplest assumption for the 1993-2003 time

frame is that the rate of industrial hiring of new

science and engineering Ph. D.s remains constant

at its 1993 level. Using that assumption, the combined academic and industrial demand increases

substantially above the 1983 level between 1993

and 1998 and grows to exceed the current annual

supply of new science and engineering Ph. D.s between 1998 and 2003.

The American Institute of Physics (AIP) has recently completed an in-depth analysis of the long2010

term market for physics Ph. D.s that tends to support the analysis ‘presented above. The AIP

projects that the total industrial, government, and

academic demand for new physics Ph. D.s could

exceed the projected supply by the year 2000 under the most likely scenarios.36 (See figure 3-16. )

3’U. S. Congress, House, “Testimony by Daniel Kleppner, Professor of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, ” Committee on Science and Technology, Task Force on Science Policy (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, July 9, 1985), pp.

2-37.

POSTDOCTORAL APPOINTMENTS

Among new science and engineering Ph. D.s

who do not obtain a faculty position or enter industry, the principal alternative mode of employment is the postdoctoral appointment. The National Research Council defines a postdoctoral as

a “temporary” appointment the primary purpose

of which is to provide for continued education

or experience in research usually, though not necessarily, under the supervision of a senior mentor. 37 NRC gives a number of rationales for the

increasing percentage of Ph. D.s taking postdoctoral appointments:38

In many areas of science and engineering, especially the interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary

37National Research Council, Poskfoctora~ Appointments and Disappointments (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1981),

p. 11.

3’Ibid., pp. 80-82.
75

Figure 3.16.—Possible Levels of Supply and

Demand for Physicists Within Each Five-Year

4,250

4,000

3,750

 3,50 0

-

-

3,250

3,000

2,750

2,500

Period, 1981-2001

!

 .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .

J

T

1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-2001

Five-year periods

Demand-D supply- s

Best Cg q

Best ;;:;-

estimate estimate ,. .,. .

SOURCE American Institute of Physics, In Testimony by Daniel Kleppner to the

House Committee on Science and Technology, July 9, 1985, p 52-37

ones, the nature of research has become increasingly complex, and has required young investigators to develop highly specialized skills, Frequently these skills can be acquired more effectively

through an intensive postdoctoral apprenticeship

than through a graduate research assistantship . . . .

From the perspective of the young investigator

the postdoctoral appointment . . . provide[s] a

unique opportunity to concentrate on a particular research problem without the burden of either

the teaching or the administrative responsibilities

usually given to a faculty member . . . . As the

competition for research positions has intensified . . . . the opportunity as a postdoctoral to

establish a strong record of research publications

has become increasingly attractive to many young

scientists interested in careers in academic research . . . .

However, there is now considerable evidence,

and concern, that the postdoctoral appointment

has become something of a holding pattern for

new Ph. D.s who cannot find immediate faculty

or industrial positions. A recent Higher Educa-
76

tion Research Institute survey of doctoral degree

holders who had taken postdoctoral appointments

found that the number of respondents reporting

“employment not available elsewhere” as the reason for taking a postdoc increased from 5.6 percent of the 1960 to 1967 graduates to 36.8 percent of the 1970 to 1973 graduates. The number

citing “to become more employable” as a reason

jumped from 19.4 percent in the former period

to 39. o percent in the latter.39

The number of science and engineering Ph.D.s

with plans or firm commitments for postdoctoral

study immediately following receipt of the degree

has increased dramatically over the past quarter

century. Figure 3-17 shows the “percent of Ph.D.

recipients from U.S. universities planning postdoctoral study immediately after receiving the

doctorate” between 1958 and 1982, by field.40 It

can be seen that in the biosciences, chemistry,

physics, and astronomy the percent reporting

postdoctoral plans has increased from approximately 10 percent in 1958 to between 40 and 60

percent in 1982. (It should be noted that data from

i958 to 1969 are not completely comparable to

those from 1969 to 1983 because of a change in

surveying procedures at NRC. ) In biochemistry

the percentage today exceeds 70 percent, while in

most other science and engineering fields it is relatively low (10 to 20 percent).

According to NRC, postdoctoral appointees

represented 3 percent of the U.S. doctoral scientific and engineering labor force of 365,000 in

1983, or 11,000 individuals.4l This was an increase

of 5 percent from the 10,5OO reported by NRC

for 1979.42 More than 6,600 of the 1983 postdoctoral appointees, or 60 percent, were life scientists. They represented about 44 percent of the

15,OOO Ph. D.s awarded in the life sciences in the

1981-83 period. (The average postdoctoral appointment lasts 3 years. ) The next largest group,

——— --- —.-.

“William Zumeta, “Anatomy of the Boom in Postdoctoral Appointments During the 1970s: Troubling Implications for Quality

Science?” Science, Technology and Human Values, vol. 9, No. 2,

spring 1984, pp. 23-37.

~Owi]liamZumeta, Extendjng the Educational Ladder: The Changing Quality and Value of Postdoctoral Study (Lexington, MA: D.C.

Heath & Co., 1985), p. 7.

i I National Research Council, Science, Engineering and Humanities Doctorates in the U. S.: 1983 Profile, op. cit., pp. 28-29.

“’National Research Council, Postdoctoral Appointments, op. cit.,

p. 13.

2,2oo, or 20 percent, were in the physical sciences.

They represented about 22 percent of the physical science Ph. D.s over the 1981-83 period. The

social scientists at 1,2oo were the third largest

group, Engineers and mathematicians were far behind at 280 and 120 postdoctoral respectively.

Postdoctoral appointees with Ph.D.s from U.S.

graduate schools—the population discussed above

—represent only half of the total postdoctoral appointees in the United States. According to NSF43

the total number of postdoctoral appointees in

1983, including those with foreign Ph. D.s and first

professional degrees from U.S. schools, was

20,800, up 13 percent from a total of 18,500 in

1976.44 Of these postdoctoral appointees, 15,000,

or 73 percent, were supported by the Federal Government, with 10,000 or 50 percent on research

grants. Since this chapter is concerned primarily

with the fate of scientists and engineers who receive Ph. D.s from U.S. universities, the 11,000

postdoctoral appointees surveyed by NRC is the

more relevant population.

In 1981 NRC completed a comprehensive study

of “Postdoctoral in Science and Engineering in

the United States, ” which examined in depth the

role of the postdoctoral appointment in the transition from graduate school to the workplace .45

It found that between 1973 and 1979, 29 percent

of the science and engineering Ph. D.s who entered

the labor force each year (4,3oo out of 15,000)

took postdoctoral appointments, In the biosciences,

55 percent of the new Ph.D.s who entered the labor force each year (2,000 out of 3,600) took an

immediate postdoctoral appointment. In physics

and chemistry, the fields with the next highest

proportions of postdoctoral appointments, the

corresponding percentages were 46 and 40 percent.

NRC also found that in the biosciences, the duration of the postdoctoral appointment had increased appreciably. Fifty-seven percent of the bioscientists who received their degree in 1976 and

reported plans for postdoctoral study to NRC held

appointments for longer than 2 years, up from

34 percent among 1969 doctoral degree recipients

—-—

‘3Academic Science/Engineering: Graduate Enrollment and Support, Fall 1983, NSF 85-300 (Washington, DC: National Science

Foundation, 1985), table A-33, p. 52.

~albid,, table C-35, p. 138.

iSNationa] Research Council, Postdoctoral Appointments, oP. cit.
77

Figure 3-1 7.— Percent of Ph.D. Recipients From U.S. Universities Planning Postdoctoral Study Immediately

After Receiving the Doctorate, Selected Disciplines, 1958-82

a)

-

.-

90

80

70

60

50

40

2(

10

/

c

- m I

1958 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82

Year of doctorate

NOTE Data were reported only for even.numbered years Data for intervening years were interpolated

SOURCE Wllllam Zumeta, Exterrdlng fhe Educaf/orra/ Ladder The Changing Ouallty and Value of f’ostdoctora/SfudY (Lexington.MA DC Heath&Co 1985) P 7
78

reporting planned postdoctoral study. Thirty-five

percent of the 1975 Ph.D. recipients reporting

planned postdoctoral study, as opposed to 12 percent of the 1968 recipients with similar ’plans held

appointments for more than 3 years.46 (See figure 3-18. )

To determine the effect of the postdoctoral appointment on future employment prospects, NRC

compared the 1979 employment situation of a

sample of bioscience, physics, and chemistry

Ph.D.s who received their degree in 1972 and took

a postdoctoral appointment immediately thereafter, with the situation of a comparable sample

of Ph. D.s from the same fields and year who

never held such an appointment. It found that the

group that had taken postdoctoral appointments

was far more likely to be employed at a major

research university and involved in research than

its nonpostdoctoral counterpart, but far less likely

to have received tenure. (See tables 3-4, 3-5, and

3-6. ) It also found that nonpostdoctorals earned

3 to 10 percent more than their postdoctoral counterparts. These last two effects are partially explained by the delay in obtaining a position caused

— —

4bIbid., pp. 85-108.

Figure 3-18.— Percent of Bioscientists Planning

Postdoctoral Study Who Had Held Appointments

Longer Than 2 to 5 Years, by Year of Doctorate

l

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 19751976

Year of doctorate

SOURCE National Research Council Posfdocfora/ Appo(nfrnenk and D/sap

pofntrnents (Washington DC National Academy Press 1981) p 89

Table 3-4.—Comparison of 1979 Employment Situations of Fiscal Year 1972 Bioscience Ph.D. Recipients

Who Took Postdoctoral Appointments Within a Year After Receipt of Their Doctorates With the

Situations of Other Fiscal Year 1972 Graduates Who Have Never Held Appointments

Took postdoctorate within

year after graduation Never held postdoctorate

Employment position in 1979 Number Percent Number Percent -

Total 1972 bioscience Ph. D.sa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,571 100 1,472 1 0 0

Major research universitiesb 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 446 28 230 16

Tenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 5 130 9

Nontenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281 18 69 5

Nonfaculty staff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . . . . 88 6 31 2

Other universities and colleges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 548 35 649 44

Tenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 7 410 28

Nontenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369 24 195 13

Nonfaculty staff . . . . . . ... , . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 4 44 3

Nonacademic sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 537 34 580 39

FFRDC Laboratories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2 12 1

Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 11 243 16

Business/industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183 12 214 14

Other sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153 10 111 8

Unemployed and seeking job . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2 13 1

aExcludeS graduates not active In the labor force in 1979

blncluded are 59 Universities whose total R&D expenditures In 1977 represented two-thirds of the total expenditures Of all universities and colleges

NOTE Percentage estimates reported In thw table are derwed from a sample survey and are subjec! to an absolute sampltng error of less than 5 percentage points

SOURCE National Research Council, Postdocfora/ Appolntrnerrfs and Disappointments (Washington DC National Academy Press, 1981), p 92
79

— .

Table 3.5.—Comparison of 1979 Employment Situations of Fiscal Year 1972 Physics Ph.D. Recipients

Who Took Postdoctoral Appointments Within a Year After Receipt of Their Doctorates With the

Situations of Other Fiscal Year 1972 Graduates Who Have Never Held Appointments

Took postdoctorate within

year after graduation Never held postdoctorate

Employment position in 1979 Number Percent Number Percent ——

Total 1972 physics Ph. D.sa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 557 ‘100 632 100 -

Major research universities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 21 46 7

Tenured faculty . . ... ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 5 19 3

Nontenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 10 19 3

Nonfaculty staff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . 34 6 8 1

Other universities and colleges. ., ... . . . . . . . . ... . 132 24 166 26

Tenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 9 113 18

Nontenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 11 41 6

Nonfaculty staff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 4 12 2

Nonacademic sectors ..., ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 308 55 418 66

FFRDC Laboratories . . . . . . . . . ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 16 82 13

Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 13 107 17

Business/industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 23 186 29

Other sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 4 43 7

Unemployed and seeking job . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 0 2 0

aExCludeS gracJU~eS not active In the labor force In 1979

blncluded are 59 “nlversltles whose total R& D expenditures In 1977 represented twothlrds of the total expenditures of a~ unlversltles and co11e9es

NOTE Percentage estimates reported In this table aredenved from a sample survey and are subject to an absolute sampl!ng errorof less than 5 percentage points

SOURCE National Research Councfl, Postdoctora/ Appointments and D/sappolntrnents (Washington DC National Academy Press 1981) p 9 2

Table 3.6.—Comparison of 1979 Employment Situations of Fiscal Year 1972 Chemistry Ph.D. Recipients

Who Took Postdoctoral Appointments Within a Year After Receipt of Their Doctorates With the

Situations of Other Fiscal Year 1972 Graduates Who Have Never Held Appointments

— — -.

Took postdoctorate-within–

.-

year after graduation Never held postdoctorate

Employment position in 1979 —-— Number Percent Number Percent

Total 1972 chemistry Ph.D.sa . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

-.

941 100 -615 100 ‘“

Major research universities . . . . . . . . . . . 142 15 18 3

Tenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 4 18 3

Nontenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 7 0 0

Nonfaculty staff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 4 0 0

Other universities and colleges. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 13 166 27

Tenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 3 117 19

Nontenured faculty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 8 41 7

Nonfaculty staff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2 8 1

Nonacademic sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 680 72 416 68

FFRE)C Laboratories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 4 0 0

Government ., ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 8 86 14

Business/industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 53 287 47

Other sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 7 43 7

Unemployed and seeking job . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . o 0 15 2 .

aExCl~des gra(tua[~s not active In the labor force In 1979

blncluded are 59 Unlversl[les whose total R&D expenditures In 1977 represented two-thirds of the tOlal expenditures of all Unlversltles and colleges

NOTE Percentage estimates reported !n thlstablearedeoved from a sample survey and are subject to an absolute sampllng errorof less than 5 percentage po!nts

See app G for a description of the formula used to calculate approximate sampling errors

SOURCE Naf{onal Research Councd Posfdoctora/ Appo/ntrnents and D(sappolnfrnents [Washington, DC Nat!onal Academy Press 1981! p 92
80

by the time spent at the

magnitude of the effect

osciences, however, that

postdoctoral level. The

was so large in the biNRC expressed concern

over “whether the postdoctoral-experience has

been advantageous to those pursuing careers in

research. ” It reported “frustrations” among young

bioscientists caught in a “postdoctoral holding

pattern, ” as exemplified by the following quote :47

Frankly, many of us are concerned about our

future prospects in these times, after many years

of training, We are becoming increasingly discouraged by the decline of tenure-track positions

and the increasing difficulty in obtaining grant

support. An opinion that is often expressed is that

we postdocs provide a cheap labor source for

“established” investigators. Especially in recent

years many of us have been completely bypassed

by the economic trends, so that we have been

unable to purchase homes, have families, etc.,

while pursuing advanced training necessary to secure a “ respectable position. ” For many of us it

is becoming reasonable to ask: “Is it worth it?”

“Ibid-.; ;- 93.

In summary, NRC found that “postdoctoral

continue to play an important role in the nation’s

research enterprise, ” and are “an invaluable mechanism for strengthening and confirming the research potential of the young investigator. ” However, NRC found “some serious concerns . . .

regarding the present and future role of postdoctoral in the research community. ” These were:48

1.

2.

3.

4.

the lack of prestige and research independence in postdoctoral appointments for the

most talented young people;

the mismatch between the important role

that postdoctoral play in the Nation’s research enterprise and the lack of opportunities that they find for subsequent career opportunities in research;

the lack of recognized status of postdoctoral

appointments in the academic community;

and

the underutilization of women and members

of minority groups in scientific research.

4KIbid.

SUPPLY OF AND DEMAND FOR ENGINEERING FACULTY

Unlike the rest of academia where the demand

for new faculty has been and will continue to be

weak, engineering departments appear to be

suffering from a surplus of unfilled faculty slots.

Those concerned with engineering education and

the health of American engineering feel that the

lack of sufficient faculty is the most important deterrent to increasing the quality, scope, and number of engineering programs. For several years,

the engineering community has been referring to

the growing faculty shortage problem as the most

immediately pressing problem facing engineering

education. Undergraduate engineering enrollments have more than doubled in the past decade. In addition, graduate enrollments have nearly

doubled. Meantime, full-time engineering faculty

rose 14 percent and part-time engineering faculty

rose 20 percent .49 These trends have raised the stu-

“*American Association of Engineering Societies, Engineering and

Technology Enrollments, Fall 1983 (New York: American Association of Engineering Societies Publications, 1984). Data was derived

from the 16th annual survey of engineering and technology enrollments conducted by the Engineering Manpower Commission of

AAES,

dent faculty ratio from 12:1 to 20:1, after adjusting for faculty research commitments. (In 1973

there were 235,000 full-time equivalent engineering undergraduate and graduate students and

19,400 FTE engineering faculty not involved exclusively in research. By 1983 those numbers had

increased to 486,400 FTE students and 24,800 FTE

faculty. so) If the number of engineering majors

stays constant or slows in its increase, the alleged

shortage will eventually abate. Engineering enrollment was actually down 2.8 percent in 1984 from

1983.5

1

— --

s~~cademj~ Scjence/Engineering: Scientists and Engineers, NSF

84-309 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1983), table B-1, p. 6 for faculty. All figures multiplied by 0.78 to eliminate

FTEs devoted purely to research (same source, table AlA, p. 78);

U.S. Congress, House, “Testimony of David R. Reyes-Guerra, P. E.,

Executive Director, Accreditation Board for Engineering and Technology, ” Committee on Science and Technology (Washington, DC:

U.S. Government Printing Office, July 24, 1985), chart D for enrollments.

s IU. s. Congress, House, “Testimony of David R. Reyes-Guerra, ”

op. cit., chart D.
81

Many in the engineering community argue that

the increase in the student to faculty ratio has significantly reduced the quality of engineering education and may be forcing faculty to pursue

nonacademic positions. Surveys conducted by the

Engineering Manpower Commission for the Engineering College Faculty Project reported that

faculty shortages had resulted in higher teaching

loads and some curtailment of course offerings.52

It is important to note that there is no consensus

that the rising student to faculty ratio has had a

major impact on the quality of engineering B.S.

recipients, Robert Armstrong of DuPont has publicly stated that industry does not see this as a

problem, as have others.53

The extent of the shortage varies, depending on

the manner in which it is calculated. According

to NSF there are nearly 29,000 engineers employed

full-time at universities and colleges and an additional 8,800 employed part-time .54 A 1983 survey of engineering faculty and graduate students

by the American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) reported that 8.5 percent of the authorized full-time faculty positions were unfilled

in the fall of 1983 as compared to 7.9 percent in

1982. 55 However, Edward Lear, executive director of the ASEE, estimates that the shortage is actually about 20 to 25 percent. He claims that to

restore the ratio of faculty to students that existed

in the late 1960s would require an additional 6,000

faculty in the engineering colleges. ” Lear claims

that the true shortage is understated because administrators will not authorize positions, even if

they are needed, if there is no prospect of their

being filled.

On the other hand, Sue Berryman, a social

scientist at the Rand Corp., analyzed NSF data

on academic engineering and found a possible

shortage of computer science faculty but not of

—— —

‘hlc I’hcrw~n, The State (~t Academic Labt>r hlarhets, ” op. cit.,

pp 18-IQ

‘h’at i<)nal Research Council, Lah[)r ,tlar~et Cf)n~jitit)ns for EngJnc>cr< IS There .I .!!h [)rta~~e ? ( \\’ash I ngt(>n, DC: Nat Ional Academ>r

[’re~~, 1~84), ch, 1, p. 122

7’,4cadem/c .Sc]enc-t> Engineering scientists dnd .Fng)neers, op. clt.,

p. 83, and t~ble B-I, p. o.

I)aLll [>ol~an. ‘ASEE Suri’e} of Engineering Facult}’ and Graduate St udent~, Fall 1 Q83, Engineer-lng EJucatic)n October 1 Q8-I, p

50.

‘ ~atlt~nal Research C(~uncil, l.~bor ,lf~r~et c(lnc~itlons, op. cit.,

p 115.

electrical engineering faculty. She bases this finding on an examination of comparative salaries,

tenure rates, and rates of resignation among the

different science and engineering fields. Even if

there is a shortage of computer science faculty,

Berryman points out, the implications of such a

shortage are uncertain. She notes that many of

the academic requirements for computer science

can be fulfilled in courses other than computer

science .57

Another finding that raises questions about the

seriousness of the engineering faculty shortage

problem comes from the NRC survey of doctorate

recipients. According to that survey, the number

of engineering doctorate recipients reporting definite postgraduation plans for academic employment declined between 1973 and 1979 and has

only returned to its earlier level in 1983. If engineering doctorate recipients are as much in demand by engineering departments as the engineering professions claim, the number reporting

definite academic plans should have increased

substantially.

The ,NRC data also reveals that the proportion

of engineering doctorate recipients without firm

plans at the time of receipt of the doctorate is

about the same as that for all other fields and has

remained constant over the past decade. In 1983,

27.6 percent of the engineers reported that they

were still seeking appointments as their doctoral

studies were completed, the same percentage as

in 1973, while 27,1 percent of all doctorate recipients made the same report. If the competition for

engineering Ph. D.s between academia and industry were as strong as some claim, the proportion

of engineers without definite employment plans

should be lower than that for all other fields and

should be decreasing .58

Setting aside considerations of the magnitude

of the shortage problem, administrators claim that

engineering departments are increasingly dependent on hold-over retirees who will soon leave the

system entirely, on part-time personnel chosen

——-

‘

-

Sue E, Berrvman, “The Adjustments of }’outh and Educational

Instlt utlons to Technologlcall>-Generated Changes in Skill Requiremerits, ’ National Commlsslon tor Employment Policy, hlay 1985.

‘FNational Research Council, Summar] I?ep[)rf Z~83: Doctordte

l{ec~pient.+ From L’nited States LJni\ersities (1+’ashlngton, DC: National Academ}’ Press, 1983), p. 19.
82

more for their availability than for their expertise, and on foreign nationals (some of whom are

thought to be underqualified because of alleged

language and cultural problems). Universities

claim that the reasons they cannot recruit the best

engineers to teach are the relatively lower salaries of faculty versus those found in business and

the lack of state-of-the-art equipment for research.

Daniel Drucker of the University of Florida claims

that the fundamental problem is one of quality.

Not enough of the top-quality engineering undergraduates are pursuing the Ph. D., and of those

who do, not enough want to teach .59

There are signs, however that the situation is

improving. The ASEE Report in 1983 showed that

35.8 percent of institutions reported an increase

in their ability to recruit and retain faculty—up

from 16.5 percent in 1981.60 Unfilled engineering

faculty positions at the professor level in 1982

were only 2,9 percent, below the estimated academic norm. The biggest problem seemed to exist at the assistant professor level where 24.4 percent of the budgeted positions were reported

vacant. At higher levels there actually appears to

be a net flow of engineers into the universities;

i.e., more engineers leaving industry for academia than vice-versa. Electrical engineering experienced the greatest influx of new faculty members

from industry, with the gain exceeding the loss

by more than 150 percent. ’l

Increasingly, the rewards for university positions are becoming more attractive. The Survey

of Deans conducted by AAES/ASEE documented

that many universities were providing differential salary treatment for engineering faculty for

purposes of recruitment and retainment. Increases

awarded to engineering faculty were over and

above normal, regularly scheduled universitywide salary adjustments. Engineering faculty salaries have risen 7 to 10 percent per year recently,

while nonacademic engineers have received raises

on the order of 2.8 percent per year. ’z

.—.— —

‘*National Research Council, Labor Market Conditions, op. cit.,

p. 113.

oODoigan, op, Cit., P. 52”

*lAmerican Association of Engineering Societies/ American Societ y for Engineering Education, Final Report: Engineering College

Facu)ty Shortage F’reject (Washington, DC: American Society for

Engineering Education, November 1983), p. 10.

“’National Research Council, Labor Market Conditions, p. 118.

The relationship of academic salaries to nonacademic salaries is illustrated in figure 3-19 showing academic and industrial salaries for engineering Ph.D.s. The figure shows that only supervisory

engineers receive higher salaries than their academic counterparts at the full professor level, but

that junior academics do not fare nearly as well

as junior industrial engineers. Figure 3-19 displays

median academic salaries for a 9-month period,

augmented by a 2-month summer grant, which

is received by most faculty. These data may be

deceiving, as they do not include compensation

received by faculty for consulting. Robert Weatherall of MIT reports that electrical engineering graduates who received Ph. D.s in 1967 and joined

faculties were receiving more financial compensation from all sources, including consulting, than

their counterparts in industry. Weatherall concludes that graduate students are disturbed more

by a lack of equipment and resources than by salary differentials. ’3

A survey conducted by the College and University Personnel Association found that engineer-

‘31bid., pp. 118-119.

Figure 3-19.—Comparison of Academic-Industry

Engineering Ph.D. Salaries (All Professorial Salaries

Adjusted to n-Month Basis)

036 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33

and

Years since baccalaureate degree over

SOURCE Englneerlng Manpower Commlsslon, AAES, 1983
ing faculty earned higher salaries in public institutions than in private institutions during the

1983-84 school term.64 Yet, according to the ASEE

survey reported above, there were more unfilled

vacancies in the public schools than in private

schools. This finding also calls into question the

claim that the salary differential is the principal

disincentive to a career in academia.

Many in the engineering community believe

that the number of doctorate awards must be increased in order to reduce the impacts of shortages of engineering faculty. Fortunately, the number of doctorates awarded annually in engineering

has been rising steadily since 1980. ’ Engineering

doctorate degrees increased by 4.8 percent in

1984, ’5 when all other disciplines, except for the

physical sciences, experienced declines.” Full-time

enrollment of U.S. graduate students in engineering has risen for the past 3 years. ’7

Some question the extent to which undergraduate engineering education is necessarily dependent

on doctoral level faculty to accomplish its mission. The Panel on Engineering Graduate Education and Research of the National Research Council Committee on the Education and Utilization

of the Engineer concluded in their 1985 report that

schools that emphasize undergraduate education

can safely utilize faculty without the doctorate.

However, the “faculty in research universities

—..

“Scientific Manpower Commission, Afar-power Comments, vol.

21, No. 3, April 1984, p. 16.

● The percentage of foreign nationals enrolled in doctoral engineering programs has remained constant at approximately 41 percent during this time period.

“’Patrick Sheridan, “Engineering Enrollments, Fall 1983, ” Engineering Education, October 1984, p. 46.

‘b,National Research Council, Doctorate Recipients, 2983, op. cit.,

see table A and figure 2.

‘-Doigan, op. cit., p. 5 4 .

8 3

should, in the overwhelming majority, have doctor’s degrees. ”68

In conclusion, there appears to some disagreement about the actual need for academic engineers. Documented shortages are much lower than

shortages determined on the basis of some ideal

quality of education. In addition, the shortages

are more apparent at some faculty levels, particularly entry levels, and in particular disciplines,

such as computer science. These shortages have

occurred more because of skyrocketing undergraduate enrollments in engineering than because

of the decline in the number of engineers seeking

Ph.D,s and subsequent academic appointments.

If universities and colleges continue to allow high

enrollments in engineering in response to perceived market signals, then faculty shortages will

continue, particularly if academe continues to rely

only on field-specific, U.S. educated doctorate recipients as their primary source for academic

faculty. Some academic institutions have already

begun to cap their undergraduate engineering

enrollments in an attempt to relieve the faculty

shortage.

In addition, the literature suggests that one

means of drawing more doctorate recipients into

academe is through improvement of research facilities and equipment. The salary differential does

not appear to be as important a disincentive as

some would suggest; many young Ph. D.s prefer

to conduct their research in industry because the

facilities and equipment there are at the leading

edge.

‘“National-Research Council, Engineering Graduate Education and

Research (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1985), p. 103.

U.S. EDUCATION AND UTILIZATION OF

FOREIGN SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS

Both as students and as faculty members, for- participation in all of higher education enrollment

eign nationals are a significant portion of the aca- is less than 3 percent, demonstrating their disdemic population, particularly in engineering, proportionate participation in engineering educacomputer science, and the physical sciences. For- tion. 69 One-fourth of all graduate students who

eign students comprised 6.2 percent of the undergraduate enrollment in engineering, and 35 per- “Participation of Foreign Citizens in U.S. Science and Engineercent of the graduate enrollment. Their overall ing (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, January 1985).
84

are foreign nationals are enrolled in engineering

programs.

There has been a steady increase in enrollment

of foreign students since 1964, when total foreign

enrollment in U.S. institutions of higher education was 1.5 percent .70 (See figure 3-20. ) A Report of the Institute of International Education

concluded that foreign students enroll proportionately more often in engineering and the medical

sciences, and less often in the humanities and social sciences. This can be attributed to the unavailability in developing countries of costly training

facilities necessary for engineering and medical

science education. 7

1 Since 1979, the regional origin of engineering students has changed dramatically. The proportion of South and East Asians

nearly doubled between 1979 and 1984, while the

proportion of students from the Middle East declined by 17 percent. Data from 1984 show that

South and East Asians constitute nearly 60 percent of foreign graduate engineering students, and

32 percent of foreign undergraduate engineering

students. Middle Easterners comprise 18 percent

of the foreign graduate engineering population

and 38 percent of the foreign undergraduate engi-

—.

“OIbid-.l p.–7 .

-

‘ Elinor G. Barber (ed. ), Foreign Student Flows, IIE Research Report No. 7 (New York: Institute of International Educa~ion, 1985),

pp. 40-42.

3

Foreign enrollment 1.5 1.7 1,6 2.5 2.7

as a percent of

total enrollment

NOTE” Includes students at all levels

SOURCE lnstltuf~ ~f International Educa[lon and National Center for Educat{on

Stall stlcs

neering population. 72 Table 3-7 shows world region of origin of foreign students in the sciences

and engineering undergraduate and graduate

levels combined.

Data for 1983 from AAES show that at the

Ph.D. level, 41.5 percent of total full-time engi72 Marianthi Zikopoulos and Elinor G. Barber (eds. ), Profiles:

Detailed Analvses of the Foreign Student Population, 1983 1984

(New York: Institute of International Education, 1985), pp. 30-39.

Table 3-7.–Origin of Foreign Students Within Fields of Study, 1983-84

—..—

World region —

Latin ‘- Middle North South and

Africa Europe America East America Oceania East Asia

Agriculture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26.6 5.5 27.9 8.7 4.1 1,0 26.3

Business and

management . . . . . . . . . . 16.1 8,6 17.8 12.3 4.2 1.3 39.7

Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16.5 9.7 17.1 13.2 10.8 4.1 28.7

Engineering . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 6.5 12.2 30,1 1.8 0.2 42.2

Fine and applied arts . . . . . 15.8 6.5 21.2 16.5 4.8 0.5 34.5

Health sciences. . . . . . . . . . 16.5 9.9 18.8 14,3 9.8 2.3 28.4

Humanities , . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 21.4 14.4 6.8 9.7 2.5 35.6

Math/computer science . . . 6.4 7.1 13.0 17.2 1.5 0.7 54.1

Physical/life sciences . . . . . 10.6 11,4 12.8 14.3 4.3 0.9 45,7

Social sciences . . . . . . . . . . 6.8 16.4 18.2 10.7 11.0 2.1 34,8

Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14.4 12.9 17.8 11,1 7.5 1.6 34.7

Intensive English

language . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9 5.4 22.5 26.5 0.5 0.0 2,0

Undeclared . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 16.1 19.1 12.8 9.3 1,3 31.2

All fields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 9.6 15.8 17.4 4.8 1.2 39.9

SOURCE National Sc~ence Foundation

. —

Number of

students

Total reported

100,1 4,993 -

37,939

7,944

43,261

4,185

8,814

8,490

18,993

15,888

7,739

7,400

-.

3,296

8,108

177,050
85

neering candidates were foreign nationals, up

slightly from 41 percent in 1982. * The National

Research Council Survey of Doctoral Recipients

(1983) shows that the percentage of engineering

doctoral recipients listing U.S. citizenship has declined from 82 percent in 1965 to just under 48

percent in 1983. 73 In comparison, in 1983, nonU.S. citizens received more than a third of the doctoral degrees awarded in mathematics, 28 percent

of physics and astronomy doctorates, 21 percent

of the chemistry doctorates, and 12 percent of the

doctorates in the biological and health sciences

(down from 14 percent in 1975).

In the doctoral population, available information from various sources indicate that between

20 and 50 percent of foreign doctoral students in

the sciences are principally supported through research or teaching assistantships. In engineering,

the proportion is nearly 60 percent.74 It is uncertain whether this deprives qualified U.S. students

of research training and financial support. Analysts Lewis Solmon and Ruth Beddow found that,

“foreign students probably pay more than their

education costs, and they might be paying substantially more. ”75 Solmon and Beddow did not

include U.S. research assistantship or fellowship

support in their analysis, however.

Proponents of U.S. education assistance to foreign nationals justify it with the following reasons;

it is a means of helping persons from less fortunate nations to obtain the benefits of a U.S. education; the political advantage of having future

leaders of other countries educated in the United

States, rather than elsewhere will pay off in the

long run; it is to the cultural and sociological

advantage of U.S. students to be exposed to persons from other parts of the world; and the United

States can utilize the skills and training of those

individuals who stay on in this country after their

— .-

*In base numbers, in 1982 there were 6,741 foreign nationals

among the 16,442 engineering doctorate enrollees; in 1983, 7,687

ot the total 18,540 doctoral candidates were foreign nationals.

“’National Research Council, Summary Report z~83: Doctorate

Recipients From LJn/ted States Universities (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1~83), see table D.

“’Betty Vetter, “U.S. Education and Utilization ot Foreign Scientists and Engineers, ” contractor report prepared tor the U.S. C’ongress, Office of Technology Assessment, 1985.

‘

r

Lewis C. Solmon and Ruth Beddow, “FlowTs, Costs and Benefits of Foreign Students in the United States: Do \4’e Have a Problem?” in Elinor Barber, op. cit., pp. 121-122.

educational training has ended. Opponents are

concerned that the training and employment of

foreign nationals in the United States constitutes

a “brain-drain” from the home country if they remain here, and could pose a threat to our national

security, if they return home. Restricting access

to “sensitive” research at U.S. universities may

provide additional problems to those research institutions with large numbers of foreign students

and faculty members.

There is disagreement between various groups

in this country as to whether individuals admitted

to the United States as students who complete a

graduate degree here should be allowed to remain

after completion of the degree (and perhaps a

short period of further training). Increasing

proportions of those earning doctorate degrees (56

percent in 1983) are remaining in the country after graduation.76 Many employers, both in industry and in academic institutions, say that they cannot fill certain research and faculty positions with

U.S. citizens, and available data verify this. ” In

1984, major changes in immigration rules were

proposed in legislation passed separately by both

houses but not signed into law, both of which included an exception to the general rule that all

foreign nationals in this country on a student visa

be required to return to their native countries after graduation for 2 years before attempting to

reenter the United States on a permanent visa. The

exceptions would have allowed some scientists

and engineers, as well as some other specialists,

to accept employment and remain here. Universities and some industries felt sufficiently dependent on the foreign national population with U.S.

graduate degrees that they lobbied Congress to

include the exception allowing scientists and engineers to stay and accept employment in the United

States. ’g

Others are concerned that the increasing number of foreign engineers earning degrees in this

country are taking jobs at low pay in order to remain here, thus driving down salaries and reducing opportunities for U.S. members of the engi-

——

“’l)articipation ot Foreign ~“itizens, CJP. cit., p. Jr.

‘-hlichael G. Finn, “Foreign National Scicntlst< and Englneer~ in

the U.S. Labor Ft}rce, 1972- 1Q82, a rep[~rt to the National Science

Foundation, March 1Q85, draft.

.~ ~ret ter, ~p. cit. , P, *b.
8 6

neering profession. There is no statistical evidence

that foreign engineers are paid less than comparably trained and experienced U.S. engineers.79

Foreign nationals are employed proportionately

more often in educational institutions, specifically

higher education, than U.S. citizens. This may be

explained by the fact that scientists and engineers

who are foreign nationals tend to have higher

levels of educational attainment than U.S. scientists and engineers, as shown in figure 3-21. The

proportion of foreign nationals engaged in research, development, and design is about the same

as for U.S. scientists and engineers. The proportion of foreign nationals in management positions

in R&D firms, however, is less than their U.S.

counterparts. This may be a reflection of the fact

that foreign nationals in the U.S. science and engineering labor force tend to be younger than the

average U.S. scientist or engineer. Management

positions traditionally go to senior employees. 80

Many foreign nationals choose to enter the academic market after graduation. Because there is

a shortage of faculty in engineering and in computer science and because an increasing proportion of U.S. doctoral graduates in these fields are

foreign citizens, U.S. faculties include a large and

increasing proportion of foreign nationals and foreign born but U.S. educated citizens. The current

shortages of faculty in engineering schools would

be far higher had they not been able to employ

foreign engineers with U.S. Ph.D.s. A 1982 survey found that 18 percent of all full-time engineering faculty members earned their B.S. degrees

from an institution outside the United States. The

highest percentage of foreign born faculty is in

computer science/engineering—20. 7 percent.

More than one-fourth (26 percent) of all assistant

professors in engineering in 1982 earned their B.S.

degrees outside the United States. 81

Several authors have made reference to the

“growing problem” of foreign nationals on engineering faculties. They contend that the drawbacks of an increasingly foreign born faculty are

————

‘QVetter, op. cit., p. 17.

HoFinn, ~p. cit., p. 12.

s ‘Vetter, op. cit.

Figure 3-21 .—Educational Attainment of Scientists

and Engineers, by Immigrant Status, 1982

Other

M.

U.S. natives

Other

Ph

Foreign nationals

Other

B.S.

Naturalized U.S. citizens

SOURCE. ORAU, based on 1982 Postcensal survey (Finn)
the limitations in their communications skills and

the implications for education. Some studies have

found that a number of problems for women are

greatly exacerbated when they deal with foreign

faculty and foreign students .82 The classroom climate for women who must deal with foreign male

faculty and graduate students is particularly difficult when such faculty and students come from

countries where women, by statute or custom,

have a very restricted role. These difficulties are

further emphasized by the fact that 92.5 percent

of all foreign students in engineering are male.

In conclusion, there is no apparent national policy in regard to either the education or the utilization

which

-

of foreign students and graduates, against

either current or proposed regulations for

‘

i

’ Scientific Manpower Commission, The International F/ow, of

Scientific anci Technical Talent: Data, Policies and Issues, proceedings ok a joint meeting of the Scientific Manpower Commission and

the Engineering Manpower Commission on May 7, 1985, in preparation for publication, 1985.

8 7

the temporary or permanent entry of foreign

science and engineering students or foreign scientists and engineers might be tested. Foreign students make up a significant fraction of graduate

enrollments in U.S. universities, where they serve

as research assistants, and to a lesser degree, as

teaching assistants. As these students obtain advanced degrees, many seek to remain in the United

States and to enter the U.S. labor force, which

appears to be problematic only in academe, where

communication skills are essential. There is no

doubt that foreign born scientists have enriched

U.S. accomplishments and achievements in science

and technology. As these individuals increasingly

enter American industry and academe, following

an education in American colleges and universities, a new set of policy issues arise. Issues of interest to policy makers are the purposes of educating students from other nations, whether the

education of American students suffers from the

participation of foreign nationals, and the cost,

if any, to the taxpayers of educating foreign

students.
Chapter

The Industrial Marke

for Engineers
Contents

Page

Shortages: Present and Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

Supply and Demand Projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95

Supp!y projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

Supply-Demand Gaps. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97

Defense Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97

Adjustments to Supply-Demand Gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99

Supply Adjustments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......100

Occupational Mobility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...............101

Demand Adjustments . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . ..., ..., .,...., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .102

Increased Search and Recruitment ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........102

Internal Training and Retraining of Engineers ..., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., ....102

Rearrangement of Jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ...102

The Consequences of Adjustment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ......,103

Variability in Shortages of Engineers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ., ., . . .I04

Impact of Shortages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ... Io5

Mobility and Flexibility of Engineers and Related Professionals. . . . . . . . . . .......106

Desirable Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... ... ..I07

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..,.108

List of Figures

Figure No. Page

4-1. Percent of All Offers and Percent of All Bachelor’s Graduates ., . . . . . . . . . ..., 91

4-2. Employed Engineering Personnel 1960-82 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92

4-3. Engineering Freshman Enrollments, B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. Degrees . . . . . . . . . ..., 93

4-4. B.S. Engineering Degrees, 1968-83 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94

4-5. Supply and Demand for Engineers, 1978-90 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Chapter 4

The Industrial Market for Engineers

As shown in chapter 2, most science bachelor’s

degree recipients either go on to graduate school

—the Ph.D. being the true entry-level degree for

a research career—or obtain employment in a

conscience field (see chapter 2, table 2-2). More

than three-quarters of all engineering B.S. recipients, by contrast, obtain immediate employment

as engineers in industry. In addition, more than

90 percent of all the job offers to all science and

engineering bachelor’s graduates in 1984 were in

engineering, engineering technology, or computer

science (see figure -1). 1 Therefore, when considering the utilization of science and engineering

bachelor’s degree holders, it is appropriate to focus on the industrial market for engineers.

‘Opportunities in Science and Engineering: A Chartbook Presentation (Washington, DC: Scientific Manpower Commission, November 1984 }, p. 32.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics

(BLS), the number of employed engineers in the

United States doubled between 1960 and 1982, increasing from 800,000 to more than 1,600,000 (see

figure 4-2).2 During that same period, 1960-82,

the U.S. gross national product (GNP) increased

by 100 percent in constant dollars and the national

research and development (R&D) budget grew by

103 percent in constant dollars. Thus, the growth

in demand for engineers appears to correlate very

well with growth in GNP and growth in total national expenditures for R&D.

‘

-2 Engineerin-g Education and Practice in the United States (Washington, DC: National Research Council, 1985), p. 88. It should be

noted that there is a serious discrepancy between BLS and N’SF data

on employed engineers, the latter showing 1,847,000 engineers employed in 1982, Science Technology Resources, NSF 85-305 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, January 1985), p. 545.

Figure 4-1 .—Percent of All Offers and Percent of All Bachelor’s Graduates

Men Women

(percent) (percent)

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

1 I 1 I I I I I I 1 1 1 I I

Engineering/ I Offers

b Y engineering ~ Graduates technology

Business/

management I o

Computer sci.1

mathematics

k

- Humanities

t social sci.

Health

c professions

SOURCE Opportun/1/es In Sc/errce and Eng[neer{ng (Washington DC Sclentlflc Manpower Commlsslon 1984) p 32

91
92

Figure 4-2.— Employed Engineering Personnel,

1960-82

1960 1970 19741976197819801982

Year

SOURCE: Englneer(ng Educatfon and Practice in the United Sfafes (Wash

i ngton DC Nat Ional Research Counc 11, 1985), p 88

The number of first year enrollments in engineering school and the number of engineering

bachelor’s degree recipients has fluctuated quite

widely since World War II, with peaks and

troughs apparently produced by transitory political and social events and trends (see figure 4-3).3

‘Engineering Education and Practice in the United States, op. cit.,

p. 52.

However, beneath the fluctuations, there appears

to be an overall trend of an increase of slightly

less than 3 percent per year in the number of engineering B.S.S awarded each year. The recent surge

in engineering B.S. S awarded in 1980 to 1983 appears to be something of an aberration, that could

be followed by a decline in the late 1980s, since

all previous peaks have been followed by troughs.

The growth in engineering B.S.S has been somewhat uneven across fields, with electrical and mechanical engineers showing the greatest increases

over the past decade, as can be seen from figure

4-4,4 The number of aerospace, chemical, industrial, and mining and petroleum engineering B.S.S

have also increased dramatically, more than doubling for each field since 1976. Only civil engineering failed to show a dramatic increase in the

1976-83 period, perhaps because it was the only

field not to suffer a decline in the early 1970s.

‘Robert C. Dauffenbach and Jack Fionto, “The Engineering Degree Conferral Process: Analysis Monitoring and Projections, ” report for the Engineering Manpower Commission, November 1984,

p. 13.

SHORTAGES: PRESENT AND FUTURE

The principal industrial employers of engineers

are companies that make transportation equipment (11 percent); communication equipment (6

percent); electronic components (3 percent); and

office, computing, and accounting machinery (5

percent). Other major employers include engineering companies (10 percent) and the government

(12 percent). Many engineering employers have

reported shortages of engineers, especially in the

electrical and computer specialties (CS), The National Science Foundation (NSF) annually surveys

about 300 major industrial employers of engineers. The table below reports the percentage of

surveyed companies reporting a “shortage” of either electrical or computer engineers. s (NSF defines a shortage as a situation where an employer

has “more vacancies than qualified job applicants

in a specific field.”) Note the dramatic decline in

“’Shortages Increase for Engineering Personnel in Industry, ”

Science Resource Studies Highlight (Washington, DC: National

Science Foundation, Mar. 29, 1985).

the number of firms reporting shortages between

1981 and 1983.

Electrical engineers Computer engineers

1981 ......, . . 57 percent 51 percent

1982 . . . . . . . . . . 31 percent 21 percent

1983 . . . . . . . 7 percent 6 percent

1984 . . . . . . . . . . 19 percent 15 percent

Other surveys report similar results. The 1983

American Electronics Association (AEA) survey

of 815 firms employing engineers found that 32

percent reported a shortage of electrical and CS

engineers. b A similar study conducted among

Massachusetts electrical engineer (EE) employers

in 19837 found 25 percent reporting shortages of

“entry-level” electrical engineers, while 65 percent

reported shortages of experienced EEs.

‘Technical Employment Projections, 1983-87 (Palo Alto, CA:

American Electronics Association, July 1983).

7Paul Barrington, et al., “Employment Developments in the Electrical Engineering Labor Market of Massachusetts and the U.S., ”

Northeastern University, 1983.
1

2

3

4

5

6

7

9

10

A

Figure

120,000

105,000

90,000

75,000

60,000

45,000

30,000

15,000

4-3.—Engineering Freshman Enrollments, B. S., M. S., and Ph.D. Degrees

First-year enrollments

-

2 4

-

-

04

~ M.s.derees

- 

A

Ph.D. degrees

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Year

Returning World War II veterans

Diminishing veteran pool and expected surplus of engineers

Korean War and increasing R&D expenditures

Returning Korean War veterans

Aerospace program cutbacks and economic recession

Vietnam War and greater space expenditures

Increased student interest in social-program careers

Adverse student attitudes toward engineering, decreased space and defense

expenditures, and lowered college attendance

Improved engineering job market, positive student attitudes toward engineering, and entry

of nontraditional students (women, minorities, and foreign nationals)

Diminishing 18-year-old pool

ASEE Evaluation Report recommends greater stress on math/science and quality graduate

education

SOURCE Eng~neer/ng Educat[on and Pract[ce In the Un(ted Sfa/es (Washington DC N ~t! ,na{ Re~~,~r h CO(J nc, I 1 s+851 p 52
94

Figure 4-.—B.S. Engineering Degrees, 1968-83

20,000

18,000

16,000

14,000

12,000

Io,ooo

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

01

1970 1975 1980

Year

SOURCE

The

Robert Dauffenbach and Jack Fronto, ‘The Englneerlng Degree Con ferral Process Analysts, Monltor[ng and Project ions,” report to Engineering Manpower

Commlsslon, 1984, p 13

key question for policy purposes is whether ing talent. It is clear that such adjustments take

shortages of engineers will be a problem in the

future. This question is especially difficult to answer when it is not clear how much of a problem

shortages cause at the present time. Shortage

reports do not describe the adjustments that employers and potential employees make to shortage situations. Employers have many options

available to them, including hiring less qualified

personnel and training them; raising wages to bid

away engineers from other companies; and rearranging jobs and tasks to better utilize engineerplace, but there is less clarity about the consequences. Some adjustments may be relatively

painless, while others may create as many problems as the original shortages did.

Employees also have options available for dealing with shortage or surplus situations. They can,

within limits, move to related and more profitable fields, or seek training in those specialties

which are experiencing shortages. The interfield

mobility of scientists and engineers, and relative
95

responsiveness of undergraduates to market sig- how employers and employees are likely to adnals, are two important characteristics of the U.S. just to shortage and surplus situations. The prinscientific and technical work force. cipal purpose of this chapter is to lay out a frameIn order to evaluate the possibility and effects work for understanding these adjustments, and

to summarize the (admittedly skimpy) evidence of engineer shortages over the rest of the decade,

therefore, it is not enough to simply project sup- on their effects.

ply and demand. It is also necessary to understand

SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTIONS

Supply and demand projections for engineers

are the raw material for evaluating the extent of

future engineering “shortages. ” In February 1984,

the Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel of the National Research Council (NRC) held

a symposium on Labor-Market Conditions for

Engineers: IS There a Shortage?8 This symposium

brought together the major sources of engineering supply and demand projections: BLS, NSF,

and AEA.

All three projections used 1982-83 as their base

year. BLS projected engineering jobs through

1995, using a sophisticated variant of the “manpower requirements” approach. First, BLS projected the growth rate of the whole economy and

of individual industries. Then it calculated how

many engineers would be needed to achieve this

growth rate. These calculations were based on historical patterns of engineering employment, plus

anticipated changes in these patterns in the future.

NSF used a similar methodology to predict the

need for scientific, engineering, and technical personnel over the period 1982-87. Its model, however, gives more attention to specifying the course

of defense spending than does BLS.

AEA took a totally different approach. They surveyed their members and asked them to project

‘1.ah(]r .tldrhet ~’onc~itlt)ns t<)r Eng!neers. 1~ There a Shortage?

(\\’a\hingt{~n, IX. ~ational l<e~earch Ccluncl], 1Q84 I.

personnel needs—especially for engineers—through

1987. The individual needs were then totaled. This

methodology has been criticized, by W. Lee Hansen and others, as being inherently unreliable.

Most employers of engineers do not make firm

projections of their manpower requirements beyond the next 18 months, so the responses to the

AEA survey for the out-years are largely educated

guesses. Moreover, respondents to surveys of this

type tend to be overly optimistic about the relative market share their company is likely to

achieve, and hence tend to overestimate their personnel requirements.

It must be emphasized that all three organizations were projecting the number of new engineering jobs. This is not the same as the demand for

engineers. Employers not only have to fill new

jobs, but they also have to fill vacancies caused

by deaths, retirement, movement out of engineering into management or other jobs, or return to

school. An accepted rule of thumb is that about

2 percent of the engineering work force will retire or die each year, creating new vacancies.

Another 4 percent of engineers will transfer out

of engineering into management or some other

field. These are not small numbers. In fact, the

replacement demand in any year is considerably

larger than the demand created by new job growth.

Thus, the magnitude of any “shortage” depends

crucially on how these flows of people are treated.
96

Under the BLS moderate scenario for economic

growth, the number of engineering jobs would increase by 3 percent per year, which is identical

to the rate of growth in GNP assumed in the BLS

model, and also to the historic rate of growth in

the engineering profession. This growth rate translates into 45, OOO new job openings each year.

However, an additional 93,5oo engineering jobs

will have to be filled each year because of attrition and transfers.

NSF comes up with quite similar projections:

an annual growth rate for engineering jobs of 2.6

to 4.5 percent. The low end of the range reflects

an assumption of stagnant economic growth (real

GNP growth rate of 2 percent) and low defense

spending, while the high end reflects strong economic growth (real GNP growth of 4 percent and

high defense spending).

AEA projections for demand are much higher:

about 50,000 new engineering jobs created each

year within the electronics industry alone. According to AEA, the electronics industry employs

about one-third of all engineers. Consequently,

AEA projections of demand, on an economy-wide

basis, are three times higher than BLS and NSF

estimates. These high projections clearly result

from AEA’s use of a questionable methodology.

Supply Projections

There are two major components to supply—

new engineering graduates and transfers from

other occupations. All three projections agree on

the likely supply of entry-level engineers.

69,000 annually. (All three projections fall substantially below the number of engineering undergraduate degrees actually awarded in 1983 and

1984 which were 72,471 and 76,931 respectively .9)

The key difference is how these studies handle

the transfer component of supply. BLS allows for

transfers out of engineering (into other types of

jobs or schools) but not transfers into engineering. Thus, BLS makes no attempt to calculate occupational mobility into engineering (though its

existence and importance is acknowledged).

The NSF study, by contrast, makes two alternative assumptions about occupational mobility.

In the first scenario, occupational mobility into

engineering (and each of its subfields) is assumed

to be equal to occupational mobility out of engineering. In the second scenario, it is assumed that

occupational mobility into engineering takes place

at its historic rate, which is just enough to bring

supply and demand into balance. The AEA makes

no assumption about the magnitude of interfield

mobility.

Supply= Demand Gaps

What kinds of gaps between supply and demand for engineers do these projections imply?

BLS compares the supply of new graduates to the

demand for new jobs, and for replacements due

to attrition and transfers and finds that supply

only meets 46 percent of the demand for all

engineers.

BLS and AEA project that the supply of entryIevel engineers going into industry will average *Engineering Education and Practice in the United States, op. cit.,

p. 57; Scientific Manpower Commission, Manpower Comments,

63,000 annually, while NSF projects 65,000 to January-Februar y 1985, p. 34.
97

However, BLS is relatively sanguine about the

implications of this gap. It points out that in 1980,

the latest year with good figures, new entrants also

filled less than one-half of total demand. (This was

also true over the entire decade of the 1960s,

according to OTA calculations. ) BLS argues that

the remainder came from:

. . . transfers from other occupations; employed

people with previous experience or training in

engineering or a related occupation; recent science

and math graduates; immigrant engineers; older

engineers returning to the profession . . .

BLS concludes that the labor market for engineers

in the rest of the decade should be the same as

it was in 1980. So, if there were sporadic shortages of EEs in 1980, there should be sporadic

shortages in the future.

NSF arrives at roughly the same conclusion, but

by a different route. Assuming that occupational

mobility into and out of engineering are equal (the

first assumption) the NSF study projects a slight

excess of demand over supply for electrical engineers in 1987 (2.4 to 7.9 percent vacancies), and

a rough balance for the remainder of engineering

fields. The second assumption leads, by definition, to a balance of supply and demand. Finally,

the shortage predictions of AEA are considerably more severe, due to their use of a questionable methodology.

William Upthegrove presented a commentary

at the NRC symposium based on a BusinessHigher Education Forum study of Engineering

Manpower and EdUCatiOn

10 that sheds considerable light on the issue of supply and demand balance. Figure 4-5, ] 1 taken from Upthegrove’s presentation, shows the flow of engineers into and out

‘OBuslness-Higher Education Forum, “Engineering hlanpower and

Ecfucation —Foundation for Future Competitiveness, October 1982.

I IL.abOr MarketCondjtlonsfor Engineers: 1s There a .$hox-tage ~

op, cit., p. 64.

of the profession. It reveals that when immigrants,

bachelors of engineering technology, and B.S. degree holders from related fields such as physics

and mathematics are taken into account, only

one-third of the growth plus replacement demand

must be filled by interfield mobility and upgrading of nonengineers. Upthegrove’s flowchart does

not take into account the 18,000 new engineering M.S. degree holders who enter the job market each year and are available to contribute to

the supply side of the picture. With these included,

the supply-demand balance would look even more

favorable.

Defense Needs

Before proceeding to look at labor market adjustments to shortages, a key question that must

be examined is the effect of defense budget increases on the demand for engineers. How sensitive are the projections of engineering demand to

changes in defense spending?

AEA asked its respondents to identify the portion of their projected future requirements that

were based on the assumption of receipt of defense contracts. The purpose of this question was

to avoid the problem of double and triple counting, where several firms project the same hiring

requirements based on receipt of the same defense

contracts. The response to this question can be

used to estimate the effect of increased defense

spending. According to the responses, 16 percent

of their projected requirements were based on anticipated defense contracts. Hence, even a doubling of defense spending would not have a large

effect. This conclusion is buttressed by the results

of Barrington, et al. ’s survey which reported that

“most respondents did not see increasing defense

outlays as a key cause of future shortages .’”12

12 Barrington, et al,, op. cit
Figure 4-5.—Supply and Demand for Engineers, 1978-90

Total supply = 104,700 to 113,400 per year.

Total demand (growth + death and retirement + transfers out)

= 104,100-113,400 per year.

I

Average annual

transaction from I

1978 to Iwo A

Entry supply Growth of engineering

employer demand

pool by expansion of

68,100 economy 38,100@

Less 20% - l&80@

Death or retirement

Available to employment

pool

Immigranta *taring

engineering fi~loyment 5,@ ,

B.E.I’. @n@rwerir?~ teGh*

~@9Y3 *-produoed lo#O@

Le$s 20% - 2#oo

Available to employment

pooi 8,7P

Total engineering and

Pseudo-engineering

employment

demand/pool

1978-1,071 ,OOOd

projected to

1990-1 ,504,0(W

Emphyment of other rmw

B.S. graduates 7,00W

upgmde of rmiatlng

teohnieians or nonangineer

Ml. reofpients, or W,500 (iow)

former demand 38,200 (hi@&

Demand created

by departures

Oeath or retirement

21,00W

Transfer outf 3.7%-47,000 (iOwj

4.3%.*,*Oigfo

a M L, Carey (Bureau of Labor statistics), “occupational Employment Growth Through 1990, ” Monthly Labor f?ewew, August 1981. These data from “low” 9rowth Pro”

bjection.

Averages determined from values of table 18 in National Center for Education Statistics, Projections ot .Educat/orr Statistics to 1988-89 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, April 1980); and 1990 values from NCES Bulletin 81-406, Feb. 13, 1981.

c Occupational Prelections and Tra/fl/~g ~ata, 1980 E(jiflon, Bureau of Labor Statlstlcs, U.S. Department of Labor Bulletin 2052, September 1980. The 20°/0 ‘i9ure is

probably conservative in light of the increasing enrollments of nonpermanent foreign nationals in engmeermg programs.

dBLs estimates, This estimate is consistent with W. p, uprhegrove’s IrnpreSSIOn that about one-half of foreign nationals who take 6.s. or Ms. degrees in us en9ineer”

ing colleges eventually stay in the United States.

‘Unpublished data compiled in 1978-79 by Damel E. Hecker, Bureau of Labor Statlstlcs.

f survey of engineering employment 1974-1976 Suggester an average transfer-out of 3.70/. More recent surveYs have indicated an even h19her rate (unpublished

Bureau of Labor Statistics data from Daniel E. Hecker).

SOURCE Labor.~ar~et Cor?dltlons for @-yfreem Is There a Shortage (Washington DC Nat!onal Research Council, 1984), p 64

NSF studied the impact of different levels of crease of 18 percent over the same period. The

defense spending in more detail, and came to NSF study found that shifting from low to high

roughly the same conclusion. It looked at two defense spending projections increased the total

different levels of defense spending–the “high” demand for engineers by 85,000 in 1987. This is

projection which assumed a 45-percent increase an increase of about 6 percent, and has the effect

in real defense spending between 1982 and 1987, of turning a slight shortage into a slightly larger

and a “low” projection which assumed a real in- one.
99

Thus, increased defense spending can boost

engineering demand somewhat, but not enormously. This should not be surprising—only 18

percent of the Nation’s engineers are employed

in defense-related industries, 13 so an increase of

one-fourth to one-third in defense spending (the

difference between the high and low scenarios)

should generate a 4- to 6-percent overall increase.

There exists a rule of thumb to calculate the effect of defense spending on the demand for engineers. According to Landis, 14 an additional $1 bil-

) ‘The 1Q82 Post C-ensal Surve~’ c)t Scientists and Engineers, NSF

84-330 (V$’ashington, DC: ~ati[~nal Scwnce Foundation, 1984), p. 60.

“Fred Landis, “The Economics of Engineering hlanpower, ’f Engineer~n~~ Educat]on, December 1985.

lion (1983$) in military spending will generate a

demand for about 1,000 additional engineers if

the funds are spent on procurement, and about

4,OOO additional engineers if they are spent on

R&D. On the average, electrical engineers should

make up about one-fourth to one-half the additional demand.

Finally, we note that although defense spending has a relatively small effect on overall levels

of engineering demand, it may have a very large

effect on specialized subfields. It is impossible,

however, to generalize about these localized demand effects. In the next section we will discuss

what is known about supply responses to subfield

shortages.

ADJUSTMENTS TO SUPPLY-DEMAND GAPS

The essential nature of a labor market is that

it adjusts; supply and demand respond to the surpluses and shortages. A projected gap between

supply and demand usually does not indicate an

impending shortage; rather, it signals that some

sort of adjustment has to take place. Two types

of adjustment are possible: The first are adjustments among potential employees, such as an increase in the numbers of entry-level engineers or

mobility of experienced workers into shortage occupations. The second are adjustments by employers of engineers who can:

●

●

●

●

increase their search and recruiting efforts;

rearrange jobs to utilize available skills, education, and experience more efficiently;

make larger investments on internal training

and retraining of engineers; and

cut back on production or on R&D.

Under certain restrictive conditions no adjustment

is possible. Most projections of shortages assume

tacitly that demand and supply are independent,

so that there can be no adjustment. This assumption makes sense, however, only under the following very restrictive conditions:

● demand for the final product is relatively unaffected by labor costs;

● supply is not appreciably affected by wage

changes; and

• the shortage skills are unique, in that workers possessing them cannot be replaced by

workers from other occupations or by new

technology,

If any of these assumptions are violated, then

a projected supply-demand gap will be closed by

market adjustment. These assumptions are very

restrictive—the latter parts of this section provide

evidence to support the prevalence of adjustment.

However, there are two sectors of the engineering labor market in which it makes some sense

to assume that supply and demand will not adjust. The first is the defense sector. In defenserelated work, the demand for the final product

is usually not heavily influenced by the cost (and

thus not by the associated labor costs). Moreover,

defense-related work may demand very specialized subfields that are in short supply in the short

run.

Not surprisingly, the NSF surveys of shortages15

bear out this observation. About 64 percent of

firms with a high proportion of their employment

in defense-related work reported shortages, compared to 33 percent overall. Thus, at least in the

short run, it makes sense to project supply and

demand independently for the defense sector.

“’’Shortages Increase for Engineering Personnel In Industry, ” op.

cit.
100

The other sector in which a supply-demand gap

actually reflects a shortage are startups. Consider,

for example, newly formed companies in the computer industry. Since they are not yet producing

a product, they are willing to accept losses in the

short run in exchange for the possibility of large

returns in the future. Instead of being expected

to immediately make a profit, they are competing to get their product to market before their

rivals. For firms such as these to cut back on hiring when wages go up would be completely selfdefeating, since it would reduce the possibility of

achieving profitability at any time in the future.

Thus, demand for engineers, in this case, would

be independent (within limits) of the wage level.

Similarly, if the firm is using cutting-edge technology, the engineers skilled in this technology

are likely to be limited in number and not easy

to replace.

Supply Adjustments

Outside of the two sectors described above,

there are usually adjustments available to narrow

potential gaps between supply and demand. The

most obvious response to a “shortage,” at least

in the medium term, is for an increased number

of college students to receive training in that field.

Human capital theory predicts that students

will, on the average, choose the profession that

offers them the highest return on their investment

in education. 16 Assuming that educational costs

at any college do not vary by major, the choice

of major should depend on expected wages and

the ease of advancement.

It is not possible to measure ease of advancement, but one can measure wages. Over the past

10 years, the starting wage premium that a newly

graduated engineer commands over the average

newly graduated professional has fluctuated from

a low of 7.5 percent in 1975, to a high of 21.1 percent in 1981.17 During this period the number of

engineering baccalaureates increased from 38,000

to 63,000. Since a large proportion of employers

(35 percent in Massachusetts) adjust their wages

‘“Gary Becker, Human Capital (New York: National Bureau of

Economic Research, 1964).

“Douglas Braddock, “The Job Market for Engineers, ” Occupa-

(iona/ Outlook Quarter]y. summer 1983.

upward in response to shortages,l8 the recent behavior of engineering undergraduates can be interpreted as a response to a shortage.

Freeman and Hansen19 have constructed regression equations, based on data from 1949 to 1981,

linking enrollments in undergraduate engineering

programs to salaries in engineering jobs and in

possible alternative occupations. They find that

engineering enrollments are very responsive to salary changes: A l-percent increase in real engineering salaries will, by their model, lead to a 2 to

4-percent increase in engineering enrollments.

Despite the responsiveness of college students

to market signals, the supply of entry-level engineers can fail to adjust optimally to shortage problems for a number of reasons. First, universities

and colleges may not have sufficient resources to

meet student demands for a particular curriculum.

This could happen because budget constraints or

institutional rigidities prevent the university from

paying high enough salaries to attract engineering faculty, or from investing in state-of-the-art

equipment. Additionally, the university may have

difficulty evaluating where a new technology is

going and how long the needs for a particular type

of training will last. Thus, the university may not

want to make an investment in expensive equipment or new personnel in the face of uncertainty

over future demand.

Students face much the same problem of having to judge the long-run value of choosing a particular subfield. Even if a new specialty is needed

today, students may steer away until it has become better established. Or, conversely, students

may react too strongly to current reports of shortages, as that is the only information available.

Past student responses to announcements of

“shortages” have resulted in surpluses a few years

later.

In all of these cases, both educational institutions and students may be acting rationally, given

the available information. However, the overall

result may not be socially optimal.

IHHarrington, et d]., Op. Cit.

l~Richard Freeman and John Hansen, “Forecasting the Changing

Market for College-Trained Workers, ” Responsiveness of Training

Institutions to Changing Labor Market Demands, Robert E. Taylor, et. al. (eds. ) (Columbus, OH: National Center for Research in

Vocational Education, Ohio State University Press, 1983).
Occupational Mobility

An increase in the number of engineering B.S.S

in response to a wage increase is not a short-term

remedy to a supply-demand gap. It takes 4 or

more years to train a new engineer in college. In

a fast-moving market the needs of employers will

have undoubtedly changed by the time entering

students graduate. This lag effect is especially

powerful for occupations subject to sudden unanticipated surges in demand. The semiconductor boom of the past 10 years, for example, was

largely unanticipated. How are jobs in such rapid

growth areas filled?

One possibility is that people can move over

to these “shortage” jobs from related fields. A

large amount of independent evidence exists for

such occupational mobility. An NSF study reports

that 8 percent of those employed as mathematicians in 1972 had become engineers by 1978. 20

Over the same period, about 5 percent of physical scientists switched into engineering. Overall,

approximately one-quarter of all scientists and

engineers changed occupations between 1972 and

1978.

Attempts have been made to create occupational mobility models on the level of detail necessary to project supply and demand. Shaw, et

al., created a model in which occupational mobility was responsive to wage differences between

occupations, as it should be if occupational mobility was to eliminate shortages.21 Moreover, the

magnitude of effects they found were significant

relative to the size of current shortages.

The bottom line is that occupational mobility

exists, it is responsive to relative demand, and it

is important in reducing shortages. It is suggestive that when respondents to the 1983 AEA survey were asked how they adjusted to a shortage,

almost half reported they would substitute from

other special ties.22

‘O!National Science Foundation, “Occupation Mobility of Scientists ot Engineers,” Special Report 80-317, 1980.

‘

] Kathryn O. Shawl, et al., InteroccuPational Mobilit-v ol Experienced Scientists and Engineers, CPA 82-15 (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Po] icy Alternatives,

1982).

“Technical Employment l’rolects, 1983-87, op. cit.

101

The major concern about occupational mobility, from the employer’s point of view, is that it

may lower the quality of engineering work. This

was a major theme of the 1984 NRC symposium.

We do not have the direct data to evaluate this

problem, but we can draw some inferences from

the patterns of shortages.

First, as noted above, there have not been many

reports of shortages at the entry level in recent

years. Thus, any occupational mobility occurring

at the entry level —e. g., college graduates who

majored in physics but are taking engineering

positions—has apparently not been causing serious problems. This can be explained by noting

that entry-level personnel—engineers or otherwise—always have to be trained or supervised.

On the other hand, quality does seem to be a

problem in hiring experienced engineers. This is

reflected both in the complaints of shortages of

experienced engineers, and also in the responses

to direct surveys. Barrington (1983) asked survey respondents what difficulties they encountered in filling job openings for experienced EE

engineers. About one-third cited wage competition as the major problem, but the remaining twothirds of respondents pointed to “lack of occupation-specific work experience, lack of industryspecific work experience, and inadequate level of

training by educational institutions” as contributing to the experienced EE shortage .23

Why should occupational mobility lead to more

quality problems on the experienced level than on

the entry level? The critical characteristic of an

experienced engineer is that he or she be able to

work with relatively little supervision on portions

of a project. Someone switching occupations, by

contrast, will inevitably need additional training

and experience. It is impossible to turn a physicist into an engineer with 5 years’ experience overnight, although experience in resolving problems

and handling responsibilities in one field can be

usefuI in another.

The same is true when occupations are defined

more narrowly. A major complaint by firms is

that there is a shortage of experienced electrical

engineers with expertise in particular subfields.

————— z IHar~ln~ton, et al. , oP. Cit ”
102

The problem is that experienced electrical engineers specializing in other subfields have not been

working fors years on the particular technology

required by their new employer. Firms willing to

hire experienced EEs without the desired skills,

and then retrain them, are probably experiencing some short-term loss in productivity.

Demand Adjustments

Employers of engineers have several available

responses to a potential gap between supply and

demand. The most straightforward response is to

cut back or slow down on research and design

work to fit the available labor pool. The shortage disappears because demand for engineers is

cut back.

It is hard to know how important this type of

adjustment is, but cutbacks are probably the response of last resort. The AEA survey reported

that only 4 percent of respondents would consider

“cutting back business or reducing projects” in the

face of shortages.

In a competitive economy, a firm forced to cut

back on projects because of a shortage of engineers could be said to be facing the fact that there

are more profitable uses for engineers in other

firms. To be more precise, the present value of

the expected stream of future profits from hiring

this engineer is apparently higher elsewhere.

However, the U.S. economy has large noncompetitive sectors. In particular, both the defense industry and the educational sector do not base their

output decisions strictly on profit motives. Moreover, not everyone in the economy shares the

same expectations about the long-term usefulness

of developing a new technology or product.

Therefore, it is difficult to judge whether output

foregone by one firm is compensated for by output increased by another firm. If shortages are severe enough, all firms may have to cut back their

output .

tact with colleges, use of independent recruiters,

and attempts to hire experienced engineers away

from other firms. The latter response may involve

either offering higher wages or benefits.

According to one report, the cost of recruiting

a high-tech professional (e.g., an engineer) can be

as high as his or her annual salary .24 Thus, the

investment of firms in search and recruitment is

not insignificant,

Internal Training and Retraining

of Engineers

A common response to the tight engineering

market is for firms to take on more of the supply

burden themselves. In Massachusetts, almost all

EE employers offer tuition reimbursement plans,

and half of those surveyed had formal in-house

training programs for engineers. zs According to

the AEA survey, approximately 70 percent of respondents, when faced with a shortage, would try

to “retrain or upgrade current employ ees. ”

Over the last few years several of the maturing computer companies, such as Data General

Corp. and Digital Equipment Corp., have adopted

more systematic training approaches. Faced with

a continuing series of shortages, they have shifted

from their traditional “buy” strategy to a “make”

strategy for obtaining skilled personnel.26 This has

two major consequences. First, it helps lower the

turnover rate, which, in 1979, was 35 percent for

the electronics industry compared to 10 percent

in basic manufacturing. Equally important, it increases the effective supply of experienced engineers. Since experienced engineers are in shorter

supply than entry-level engineers, this may be crucial in alleviating shortages.

Rearrangement of Jobs

The third employer response to shortages is to

rearrange jobs and tasks to better utilize the availIncreased Search and Recruitment

A more common response to potential shortages is to increase search and recruitment efforts.

Search and recruitment options open to employers

include increased advertisements, more direct con-

“Tom Barocci and Paul Cournoyer, “Make or Buy: Computer

Professional in a Demand-Driven Environment, ” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School, October 1982.

2sHarrington, et a]., op. cit.

‘

b

Paul Cournoyer, “Mobility of Information Systems Personnel, ”

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Ph.D. thesis, 1983; see also

Michael Mandel, “Labor Shortages in Rapidly-Growing Industries:

The Case of Electrical Engineers, ” Harvard University, January 1984.
103

able skills. It is not clear how prevalent this response is. About 50 percent of AEA respondents

would react to a shortage by “increasing productivity of currently employed engineers. ”

On the other hand, Massachusetts companies

did not see this as a possible response to shortages. Barrington reports that “respondents did not

see utilization of existing engineering staff as a

contributing cause of shortages in the field . . .

most firms are unwilling to alter their organizational structures to mitigate shortage problems. ”27

These firms may feel that they have already increased productivity as much as they can so that

any additional changes would be counterproductive.

—- . .— .-— 2

’Barrington, et al., op. cit.

Firms sometimes appear to willfully avoid organizational change which would increase profits in the face of shortages. It is important to

understand, however, that some institutional rigidities which appear to block the best utilization

of engineering talent may in fact be profit-maximizing in the long run. For example, the possibility of promotion into prestigious management

jobs may serve as an incentive to get maximum

effect out of young engineers. To keep older engineers in engineering jobs could conceivably increase the number of engineers in the short run,

but it might have the effect of lowering the total

amount of employee effort. Consequently, the refusal of many firms to rearrange their job structures in response to shortages is not surprising.

THE CONSEQUENCES OF ADJUSTMENT

To see how well these adjustments to supplydemand gaps are working in the business world,

OTA commissioned an in-depth interview study

of the market for EEs in the Boston area. Electrical and electronic engineers were chosen because

there have been repeated reports of shortages in

those fields, because EEs serve both the defense

and the civilian sectors, and because employers

of these engineers are often producers of new hightechnology growth products such as computers

and electronic equipment. Interviews were conducted in the Boston area by OTA contractor Dr.

W. Curtiss Priest of Massachusetts Institute of

Technology (MIT).

The interviews covered 5 categories: large firms

(5), small firms (4), engineering school deans and

chairmen (4), university placement and employment agencies (4), the Massachusetts High Technology Council Director, and “headhunters” (2).

The interviews focused on the availability of the

electrical engineer in the Boston-Route 128 region.

In selecting firms, a variety of firms were chosen, reflecting the type of market (defense and civilian) and products. Also, various firms have

different reputations for hiring requirements and

corporate climates. The typical contact at each

firm was the vice president of engineering. The

firms contacted were: Raytheon Corp., AVCO

Corp., Wang Laboratories, General Electric (GE),

Polaroid Corp., Pacer Systems, Inc., Baird Corp.,

Technical Alternatives, Inc., and Apollo Computer Corp.

Engineering school deans and chairmen were

contacted at MIT, Northeastern University, Tufts

University, and the Franklin Institute. University

placement contacts were at MIT and Northeastern. Employment agencies contacted included

Computer Placement Unlimited, Inc., High Technology Placement of Winter, Wyman & Co., Fortune Personnel, and McKiernan Associates.

Nearly all of the interviews were made in person and lasted from 1 to 2 hours in length. An

open-ended discussion was conducted with each

contact using seven categories of questions. These

questions investigated how shortages of engineers

vary over the short and long term, the availability of particularly needed skills, and the ability

of engineers to grow into job requirements. Additionally, the discussion covered the impact of

military procurements, the benefits and environments required to attract engineers, and the sensitivity of universities to market demands. Finally,

interviewees were asked to compose a “wish list”

in order to identify major concerns about the
104

availability of engineers. To explore the hiring requirements in detail, the respondent was asked

to describe a job description and how closely a

hire would have to match the description.

Variability in Shortages of Engineers

Each firm had a uniquely different set of experiences regarding shortages of engineers. These

experiences depended on the character of the firm,

its location, and its reputation. In general, industry responded that there were certainly shortages

of some types of engineers at particular times but

some firms reported no shortages because of their

particular position in the market.

Shortages of engineers vary by geographic location. While the focus of the study was on the

Boston-128 region, a number of firms had multiple locations across the country. Raytheon Corp.

has experienced some shortages in the Boston region but extreme shortages in the Santa Barbara

area. Likewise, Pacer Systems has experienced

some shortages in the Boston area but more shortages at their Pennsylvania location where there

is a higher demand for engineers with substantial military service experience. A number of

placement respondents commented on the existence of shortages in the Silicon Valley area because of the very high costs of living.

Shortages vary by the firm’s reputation and Culture. Apollo Computer and Wang Laboratories

stated that they do not suffer from any shortages

of engineers. Both firms are successful computer

applications firms with distinctive corporate climates and reputations. Apollo Computer has a

unique reputation for fast growth and the “Apollo

culture. ” This places the firm in an “unreal,

dreamworld existence” in which they can be extremely selective about applicants. In contrast, a

company like Baird, an instrumentation firm,

often finds it difficult to hire engineers within salary ranges they can afford. They prefer to hire

fresh graduates to help keep down salary costs.

Shortages vary across general areas related to

electrical engineering. Electrical power generation

and distribution is an area that depends on the

construction market and the demand for electricity. The demand for electrical engineers in this

area is fairly steady and the supply appears adequate. The electronics industry, in contrast, has

had substantial periods of growth, creating a high

demand for the electronics-oriented electrical engineer. There have often been periods of shortages

for particular skill requirements in the electronics

field. Computer programmers in electrical engineering applications areas have also been in heavy

demand. However, there is some indication that

2-year educational programs are successful in meeting the demand for many of these requirements.

Shortages also vary considerably by special skill

needs. There are certain positions that require

both excellent electronics hardware skills and

strong computer programming skills, such as in

the design of the next generation of computers.

Qualified people are very scarce. Another current

area of shortage is in the use of automatic test

equipment (ATE). Knowledge of ATE has become

quite specialized to certain machines and software

packages. It is difficult to locate people with the

required background. Another scarce skill area

involves engineers with both analog and digital

hardware experience. Many older engineers skilled

in analog hardware find it difficult to make the

transition to digital hardware. Younger engineers,

more skilled in digital work, find analog hardware

difficult and foreign.

Changes in markets and opportunities are constantly producing specific skill shortages. The recent emphasis on “automatics” such as robotics

and other industrial control machinery has created a heavy demand for industrial electrical engineers. Until a few years ago, industrial engineers

were in low status positions and many universities, such as MIT, did not train industrial engineers. Another recent growth area, “very largescale integrated circuits, ” has created shortages

of engineers both in industry and universities.

Shortages vary over time as economic conditions and growth opportunities change. Respondents with 20 to 30 years of experience recall the

ebb and flow of hiring over a number of cycles

of high and low demand periods. Memories were

recalled of how in the late 1960s, half of the employment agencies went out of business, and stories were circulating of engineers driving taxis.

More recently, shortages in 1979 and 1980 were
105

remembered in terms of prolonged searches and

less than optimal hires. In prior decades, military

employment was viewed as unstable and companies such as Polaroid were considered stable and

secure. In the current decade, military employment is seen as a refuge and the frequent cycles

of civilian layoffs are viewed with greater anxiety. The current softening of the market is viewed

by many as a temporary adjustment period.

Shortages are not perceived to vary much by

the level of military procurements. Many respondents emphasized that the two climates of military

and civilian work are so different that there is low

mobility between the two “sectors. ” The military

engineer is viewed as more risk averse, less creative, and less likely to be interested in advancement. In contrast, the civilian engineer is viewed

as more people oriented, more talented, better

able to bring out products, and more selective.

It is more likely that engineers will move into the

military sector when civilian hiring is down than

will military engineers move into the civilian sector when hiring in the military sector is down.

Thus, when military procurements are rapidly increasing, those hiring in the civilian sector sense

less competition in hiring the same people than

they might if the mobility were higher.

Raytheon, a company with about 75 percent

of its engineers conducting military work, indicated that they keep salaries at about the same

level for both civilian and military positions regardless of changes in demand for military work.

Pacer Systems indicated that tight government auditing practices kept them from bidding up salaries for military engineers. While some of these

statements appear to defy the economic laws of

supply and demand, they were prevalent enough

to warrant further investigation.

Impact of Shortages

In general, shortages tend to lengthen search

times and may relax, somewhat, the requirements

required for a position. Many respondents stated

that, for the most part, the supply of engineers

had improved over the last 5 to 8 years. Even during high demand periods, the impact of shortages

has not been dramatic.

Changes in the level of shortages of electrical

engineers substantially affects the search time for

a new hire. Responses about variability in search

time were fairly consistent. During periods of reasonable availability the search period takes 1 to

1l/z months. During periods of greater Shortage,

this time can easily double and a search period

of 4 to 5 months would not be unusual. In these

periods, lesser known firms must be prepared to

settle for less desired choices in candidates. Special needs require more search time; the process

of hiring the right chief engineer when the requirements are fairly unique can take more than a year.

Shortages have an impact on the quality o f

engineers and productivity. For example, during

the recent 1979-80 shortage, a number of respondents said that significant compromises were made

in hiring. The level of experience criterion was met

less often. Also, firms used to hiring from “first

rate” schools might find it necessary to relax their

requirements to include other schooIs during high

shortages. Nonetheless, there was a sense that no

large departures from expectations were ever

made. The compromises were significant but not

highly burdensome.

Shortages also have an impact on deferred opportunities. For example, new hires in specific

areas may add to the future research capabilities

of a firm, but a shortage in that area presents an

“opportunity cost” to the company’s R&D effort,

Polaroid encountered shortages of Ph.D. opticaI

engineers and AVCO described shortages of “hard

science” based engineers that impeded expansion

of their research capabilities.

A major impact of shortages may be jobswitching and high expectations of engineers. A

“star” engineer (heavily sought after for his or her

high abilities and relevant skill area) will often

switch jobs every year or two. The change is typically made to receive more responsibilities, work

on more challenging problems, and for the corresponding salary increase.

The electrical engineer has fairly high expectations about the job in terms of challenge, good

relationships with the supervisor, promise of K&D

work, freedom and independence, cutting edge

projects, being entrepreneurial in design, and high
106

salary. With a very high degree of consistency,

respondents described these expectations and the

importance of meeting them to hire and retain the

engineer. It was also emphasized that a good salary went along with the other expectations and

was not typically sought after as the primary goal.

Mobility and Flexibility of Engineers

and Related Professionals

In general, it is difficult for an engineer to take

a job requiring work much different than his or

her previous experience. There are certain “feeder”

fields like math and physics but it is nearly impossible for, say, a chemical engineer to take a

position as an electrical engineer, or even for an

electrical engineer experienced in radio-frequency

design to take a job in computer design. Professionals in math and physics are often hired for

“systems” work because their general training is

useful in general problem-solving and design.

They are more likely to be hired by firms engaged

in basic research, such as Polaroid and AVCO.

They are less likely to be hired by a firm like

Apollo Computer. Thus, when the demand is

higher for engineers than scientists, as has been

the case over the last 10 years, mathematicians

and physicists can shift to fill some of the demand.

To illustrate the magnitude of this shift, from 1973

to 1983 the number of undergraduates in engineering at MIT (primarily electrical engineers) has

gone from 1,257 to 2,405. Over the same time

period, the number of undergraduates in the

school of science has declined from 1,162 to 725.

Not all engineers are equally “flexible” or “mobile. ” The engineer in the top quartile of his

profession is considered much more mobile and

flexible than the other 75 percent in the profession. Engineers that have reached positions of

management or high rank typically have greater

flexibility and mobility than more junior engineers. Three factors seem to play a part in restricting the flexibility and mobility of engineers—

market limitations, management restrictions, and

know-how limitations. These factors are not independent, but work together to reduce mobility and, at the extreme, to render obsolescent

many engineers.

In terms of market limitations, firms often

change while in a period of crisis. They require

particular engineering skills immediately and obtain these skills from the outside market because

it is not practical to retrain in-house engineers in

the time available. In terms of management restrictions, engineers become identified by management as having certain abilities and knowhow; it is difficult for management to take the

risks associated with allowing an engineer to make

a transition to a new skill area.

In terms of know-how, engineering is a highly

“know-how” intensive profession. It takes considerable training and practice to be proficient in

a particular area of electrical engineering and

while some of these skills are transferable, many

are not. For example, analog circuitry know-how

is not highly transferable to digital circuitry. Thus,

over the last 20 years when the field was moving

from analog to digital, many engineers became

increasingly outmoded.

The interviews constantly reinforced this dynamic picture of the way many engineers become

unable to face periods of transition. Many respondents spoke of the need for more engineers

to “keep up. ” There were stories about the key

engineer who did keep up and how he or she

played a significant role in the newer areas, in contrast to those who did not. The placement officer at Northeastern referred to those engineers

who worked in the same area for 10 to 15 years

and then had to return to drafting or some other

occupation requiring less skills when the area

dried up. While many professional fields are faced

with technological change, the engineering profession is probably more vulnerable than most.

For the more mobile and flexible engineers, the

headhunter plays a critical and dynamic role. The

employment headhunter is a placement person

who actively seeks out individuals to meet a

client’s employment needs. Many employment

agencies receive applications from engineers and

match these with employment opportunities they

have identified in industry. The headhunter goes

one step further and attempts to lure a “star” engineer out of one company to another. As disruptive as this first appears, the headhunter plays an
107

important role from the standpoint of economic

efficiency. He or she is helping to allocate a scarce

resource to a more optimal allocation. The headhunter establishes a network of contacts both

within organizations looking for talent and within

organizations where the talent is “misapplied” or

“underutilized. ”

In matching individuals, the headhunter is sensitive to the flexibility of the employer in terms

of the technical capabilities of the individual and

the personal match. Often it was said that employers hire “people they like. ” Thus engineers

from certain styles and cultures of firms are much

more likely to fit a particular position than others.

But other placement professionals warned against

overemphasizing the cultural variable. The bottom line is how well the person can do the job

and as monolithic as many firms appear, there

are many subcultures within any given organization.

In summary, many factors play a role in restricting mobility and flexibility. These relate to

both technical variables and cultural variables.

For small incremental shifts in the work force,

these factors will not be highly significant. For major occurrences of technological change and large

changes in the economy, however, these factors

will be quite important.

Desirable Changes

In concluding each interview, participants were

asked to identify the most desirable changes relating to the availability of engineers. The responses addressed various availability, quality,

and professional issues.

In terms of shortages, people in employment

agencies all wished they could have a larger, more

capable pool of engineers to draw from. Since

they are personally responsible for how well they

meet their clients’ expectations, this is a significant statement about the shortage of engineers.

Within industry, if a firm required a particular

specialty which was in short supply, the response

was to have more engineers trained in that specialty. For example, the GE generators section

wished more schools provided “power systems

engineers. ” Raytheon, involved in more radio

work, wished schools trained more radio-frequency engineers. In many cases, the undersupply was in a low glamour area. Power systems

engineers, industrial engineers, etc., are lower status areas and many students prefer the high tech,

high glamour areas. Whether “glamour” is a “correct” economic market signal for whether students

should pursue a particular area of electrical engineering is an interesting question.

This leads to a very serious issue of the status

of engineers in general. Respondents from universities unanimously indicated that they were upset about the “second class” treatment of engineers. One respondent described industry as

treating engineers as a commodity while another

indicated that engineers are often used for “subprofessional tasks. ” The dean of one engineering

school suggested that the supply of engineers

should be limited, as the medical profession has

done with doctors, so that the standards of professional excellence and stature could be raised. The

German model was considered a success in maintaining engineering professional standards. There

may be a linkage between the status issue and the

factors that lead to immobility and inflexibility

discussed above. How can an engineer be a professional if so much of his or her know-how can be

be made obsolete by the advancement of technology? One response to this dilemma has been to

institute “lifelong Iearning. ”

Lifelong learning was emphasized by both respondents in industry and in the universities. A

recent conference on “Keeping Pace With Change:

The Challenge for Engineers” was sponsored by

the Massachusetts High Technology Council and

held at Northeastern University. In a study sponsored by the High Tech Council, the “half-life”

of the engineering degree (length of time half of

the knowledge acquired by graduation remains

relevant to work tasks) was estimated to be between 3 and 5 years for the Bachelor of Science

in Electrical Engineering. The peak age for the performance of engineers, in terms of age, was found

to be the late twenties and early thirties. According to this study, productivity typically declines

from age 30 until retirement.
108

To counteract this process, lifelong learning

programs have been established within industries

and through universities. It was noted that the

engineer over age 35 cannot be expected to return

to the classroom but needs different educational

resources to keep up. The older engineer needs

support groups in the company of his peers. One

program is provided by Northeastern University

where live graduate courses are provided using

video to locations along Route 128 in Boston. The

system has two-way voice for communication and

courier service for homework.

Perhaps, too, with newer information technologies, the engineer can keep pace by greater use

of information databases where the knowledge is

keyed by function and application. While general

citation databases exist such as COMPENDEX on

Dialog Information Services, these only provide

bibliographic citations to the engineering literature—a literature which is itself surprisingly low

on useful material. If the private market cannot

respond in providing these information services,

it may be a role of government to help meet this

need.

Respondents also expressed the wish for engineers to

neering

have additional skills beyond basic engicapabilities. A few respondents emphasized the need for engineers to be better able to

communicate and write. A few indicated the need

for engineers to be better able to use computer

simulation to test a prototype design in place of

building the prototype because of the high costs

involved in making custom integrated circuits.

Two respondents emphasized the need for engineers to have stronger skills in scheduling and

planning, and a better sense of management’s objectives.

Finally, Polaroid, AVCO, and Raytheon indicated the need for government and industry to

provide greater support of hard science and applied research. A vice president at AVCO was

highly concerned about the loss of hard science

Ph.D.s since the Vietnam War who could not only

contribute to military strength but to basic research vital to civilian industrial strength. From

the university side, Tufts noted that the current

NSF emphasis on large research programs has

greatly reduced opportunities to support research

at Tufts. The Commonwealth of Massachusetts’

program to provide research facilities in microelectronics available to universities and industry

was lauded as a way of providing facilities that

Tufts could use to educate their engineering

students.

CONCLUSION

Shortages exist for engineers, especially for

those in a few high demand fields. in the last 5

to 8 years, however, shortages have been troublesome but not a large burden. Some firms have

never perceived shortages while others find the

supply of engineers much too small. The flexibility and mobility of some engineers is high but for

most engineers it is low. The engineering market

performs reasonably well for gradual transitions

but does not perform well during periods of major technological change or dramatic changes in

market and/or economic conditions.

In general, there does not appear to be a need

for a direct government role in alleviating potential shortages of engineers. The market for entrylevel engineers seems to be functioning well enough

now to eliminate shortages. At the bachelor’s

level, some educational institutions report that

they do not have enough resources to train all the

engineers that are interested, due to shortages of

faculty and equipment.

Although there have been, and will continue

to be, spot shortages of experienced engineers,

they are not of a type amenable to direct government intervention. When a new technology is developed, it simply takes time before there is a pool

of engineers who are experienced with the new

techniques. There may be a role for the government in helping to promote the retraining of experienced engineers into startup fields. Missionagency sponsored R&D programs could conceivably serve that retraining function. The Federal

energy and environment programs of the 1970s,

for example, helped retrain significant numbers
109

of scientists and engineers to become specialists

in those two fields. Many of these people are currently employed in their new capacity by industry.

A fundamental problem is the obsolescence of

know-how and the corresponding obsolescence

of engineers. In response, many institutions and

firms are encouraging lifelong learning. Since government has traditionally played an important

role in education, there are some policy options

which may help. One important role is to provide basic facilities for education such as the

microelectronic center that Tufts and other universities find important in helping train engineers.

Another role is to identify economic disincentives

to lifelong learning and provide either educational

support or tax relief to enable more engineers to

keep up their know-how.

In the area of information policy, there is the

question of how new information technology can

assist in providing ongoing know-how support

and lifelong learning to engineers. Does the structure of the market of engineers and their employers encourage the private sector development

of such information support systems, or are there

public sector reasons for government support? A

number of market failure reasons can exist for the

lack of the development of such support systems.

To the extent that firms do not fully bear the costs

of the obsolete engineer, firms will underinvest

in further training, etc. Also, information has

transferability problems—it is often difficult for

the supplier to exact the full value of the information because it is difficult to keep the information from being passed along (with no further revenue to its producer) .28

28 For ~ ~omPrehensive &cu5sion of these and other reasons see

W. Curtiss Priest, “The Character of Information, ” contractor paper for U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Project

on Intellectual Property, Feb. 10, 1985.
Chapter 5

Demographics and

Equality of Opportunity
Contents

Page

Women . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......114

The Science and Engineering “Pipeline” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .........114

Differential Treatment of Women in the Science and Engineering Work Force. ... ....118

Implications for Women’s Participation in Science and Engineering . ................121

Minorities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Differential Treatment in the Work

Effectiveness of Programs to Promote

Policy Implications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

List of Tables

Table No.

. . . . . . . . . . . .

Force . . . . . .

Participation

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128

Page

5-1.

5-2.

5-3.

5-4.

Average Annual Salaries of Scientists and Engineers by Field and

Sex/Race/Ethnic Group, 1982 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........119

1978/79 Representation in Quantitatively Based Fields Relative to Representation

in Age-Relevant Population by Degree Level and Racial and Ethnic Group . . . . . , . .122

1978/79 Representation Relative to Representation in the

Age-Relevant Population by Degree Level and Racial and Ethnic Group . . . . . . . . . . .122

1978/79 Representation in Quantitatively Based Fields Relative to Representation

in Total Degrees by Degree-Level and Racial and Ethnic Group . . . . . . . . . .122

Figure

Figure No. Page

51. Percent of Degrees Granted to Women 1950-82 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .......115
Chapter 5

Demographics and

Equality of Opportunity

The principle of equality of opportunity in

scientific and engineering careers is embodied in

the Equality of Opportunities in Science and Technology Act of 1981: 1

The Congress declares it is the policy of the

United States to encourage men and women,

equally, of all ethnic, racial and economic backgrounds to acquire skills in science and mathematics, to have equal opportunity in education,

training, and employment in scientific and technical fields, and thereby to promote scientific literacy and the full use of the human resources of the

Nation in science and technology. To this end,

the Congress declares that the highest quality

science over the long-term requires substantial

support, from currently available research and

educational funds, for increased participation in

science and technology by women and minorities.

The Act sets out three reasons for promoting

equality of opportunity: equity, the need for general scientific literacy, and the desire to fully utilize all human resources that could be applied to

science and technology. It also explicitly calls for

the commitment of Federal resources, within the

overall scientific research and training budget, to

programs which promote increased participation

by minorities and women in science and technology. This commitment has not been completely

carried out.

The changing college student demographics of

the coming decade have several important implications for national policy regarding equality of

opportunity. If the number of college graduates

declines substantially, as predicted, the principal

of utilization of all potential human resources to

the fullest extent possible will become especially

important. Although, as argued in chapter 1, it

cannot be proven conclusively that the Nation requires the current level of 300,000 new science and

engineering bacheIor’s degree recipients per year,

it would not appear prudent, in an era when

—.—

‘National Science Foundation Authorization Act of 1981: Public

Lam ~6-516, section 32(b),

science and technology are expected by many to

play an increasing role in improving our economic

competitiveness and national security, to allow

the number to decline appreciably. Therefore,

from a “utilization of resources” point of view,

programs to promote participation of historically

disadvantaged groups take on greater significance.

The increasing fraction of college students who

are likely to be drawn from the black and Hispanic

populations, that have historically participated in

science and engineering education and employment at far lower rates than the white population,

imply that programs directed at these two minority groups may be needed to keep the supply of

scientists and engineers from declining.

In order to understand what will be required,

it is important first to have a clear picture of the

factors leading to reduced participation by women

and certain minority groups in science and engineering. These factors are complex, interrelated,

and span the full developmental cycle from early

childhood socialization to experiences in the work

force. They include:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

the continuing legacy of decades of discrimination and discouragement from scientific

and engineering careers,

differential treatment of women and minorities in the science and engineering work

force,

lack of early educational opportunities due

to social class and cultural factors among minorities,

female socialization patterns that discourage

young women from perceived “masculine”

careers,

expectations that women will continue to assume the major role in housekeeping and

childrearing and sacrifice their professional

interests to those of their husband,

lack of financial support and institutional

biases in the higher education system, and

lack of role models and early exposure to

713
114

.- —

science and engineering as worthwhile and

accessible careers.

The sections that follow will review, briefly,

the participation rates in science and engineering

education and employment for both women and

minorities, and discuss in some detail the principal causes, as currently understood, of those low

participation rates. The limited evidence on the

effectiveness of intervention programs that have

been initiated to increase participation in science

and engineering among these groups will be presented. Finally, a set of policy and research issues

related to increasing the participation of women

and minorities in science and engineering will be

given. These issues have been identified by a review of the literature, an OTA workshop, and

a questionnaire to practitioners in the field.

The increasing participation of women in scientific and engineering education and employment

is a well-documented phenomenon. The trend is

most dramatic in higher education, where women’s

share of total science and engineering baccalaureates increased from 28 to 36 percent; of master’s

degrees from 18 to 28 percent; and of doctorates

from 15.5 to 29.4 percent between 1972 and 1982.

Figure 5-12 illustrates that increasing participation

by field and degree. In employment the trend is

less dramatic but still significant. Women constituted 8 percent of the Nation’s scientific and

engineering work force in 1973; a decade later

they were 13.1 percent. The most impressive gains

were in computer specialists, engineers, and life

scientists, where the numbers of women increased

by factors of 4, 3, and 2 respectively between 1976

and 1983. 3

Two issues link women’s increasing participation in science and engineering to the demographic

trends which are the subject of this technical

memorandum:

1. the degree to which the increasing participation of women in science and engineering

is likely to continue over the next two decades, and

2. the implications of overall demographic

trends for policies and programs to promote

equality of opportunity for women in science

and engineering.

2Bett y M. Vetter and Eleanor L. Babco, Professional Women and

Minorities, 5th ed. (Washington, DC: Scientific Manpower Commission, August 1984), p. 37.

3Science and Engineering Personnel: A National Overview, NSF

85-302 (Washington, DC: National Science Foundation, 1985), pp.

53-54.

To understand these issues better, it is necessary to examine the factors that influence women’s

decisions to enter and remain in science and engineering careers.

The Science and Engineering

“Pipeline”

According to Sue Berryman, the pool of talent

from which the Nation’s scientists and engineers

is drawn is largely formed in high school. Interest in science and mathematics first appears in

elementary school, develops most intensely prior

to 9th grade, and basically is completed by the

12th grade. After high school, migration is almost

entirely out of, not into, the pool. As a consequence:

those who obtain quantitative doctorates or

have mathematically-oriented careers a decade after high school come overwhelmingly from the

group in grade 12 who had scientific and mathematical career interests and high mathematical

achievement scores . . . . By grade 12, these

achievement scores clearly differentiate those who

plan [to attend] college from those who do not

and those who plan quantitative college majors

from those who plan non-quantitative ones.4

If we follow a group of 4,0OO seventh graders

—half boys and half girls—through the sequence

of steps from age 12 through 32 that ultimately

select those who will become scientists and engineers in quantitative fields (the physical sciences,

mathematical and computer sciences, biological

sciences, economics and engineering), we find the

‘Sue E. Berryman, Who Will Do Science (New York: The Rockefeller Foundation, November 1983), pp. 66-77.
115

Figure 5-l.— Percent of Degrees Granted to Women 1950-82

Bachelor’s Education

70 “ Humanities

-

/

\ \

- J

(

60 Psychology

50 “

Mathematics

 4 0 -

20

Social sciences

- ”

10 Physical sciences

1950 1960 1970 1980

Year

 Master’s

Humanities 

.

30 -

Biosciences a -

10

-

kwadn g

f

Physical sciences

● ✎✍☛☛☛☛ I

1950 1960 1970 1980

Year

70

60

50

.

c

4 0

30

20

10

0

Doctorates

Education

3

Psychology

Humanities , [/

. \

“,&***- 1

1950 1960 1970 1980

Year

following interesting patterns.’ About half each

of the boys and girls will have taken and understood enough mathematics by age 12 to be capable of pursuing sufficient advanced work in high

school to prepare for a quantitative major in college. (At age 12 the mathematical abilities of boys

and girls are almost identical. ) Of this group of

1,000 boys and an equal number of girls, only 280

boys and 22o girls will actually take enough high

school mathematics to major in a quantitative

field in college. This difference in numbers of students taking advanced mathematics courses is one

of the factors leading to the observed differences

—————. . . . . . .

5Betty M. Vetter, “The Science and Engineering Talent Pool” in

Scientific Manpower Commission, Proceedings of the 1984 Joint

Meeting of the Scientific Manpower Commission and the Engineering

Manpower Commission (Washington, DC: National Academy of

Sciences, May 1984), pp. 3 and 5.

SOURCE Sclentlflc Manpower Commlsslon, Professlona/ Women and Mlnorlfles (Washington, DC 1984), p 36

between young men and young women in college

SAT mathematics scores.

Of the original 2,000 young potential scientists

and engineers, only 140 of the boys and 45 of the

girls will actually enter college with plans to major in science or engineering. Forty-five of those

young men will emerge from college with a quantitative baccalaureate degree; 20 of the women will

do likewise. At the Ph.D. level, five men and one

woman, of the original science and engineering

pool of 2,000, will actually receive a doctorate

in a quantitative field.

We can see from the above statistics just where

women’s participation in quantitative fields drops

off most sharply. Between the age of 12 and the

selection of a potential major in college at age 18,

young women’s persistence in the science and
116

engineering “talent pool” falls off three times as

rapidly as that of young men. After college, 1 out

of every 20 women, as opposed to 1 out of every

9 men, who receive quantitative B.A. s goes on

to complete a quantitative Ph.D. Thus, it is at the

pre-college and postgraduate levels that we should

look for factors that discourage women from pursuing science and engineering careers.

The factors that lead college freshmen women

to pursue science and engineering majors less frequently than men are best illustrated by a comparison of major field preferences among college

freshmen. The 1984 study of The American Freshman by the Higher Education Research Institute6

shows exactly where the two sexes differ most in

their preferences. Twenty percent of the men, but

only 3 percent of the women, report an intention

to major in engineering. Three and one-third percent of the men, but only 2 percent of the women

report an intention to major in a physical science.

By contrast, women show significantly greater

preference for the social and the biological sciences; 8.4 to 5.1 percent in the social sciences; 4.5

to 4.1 percent in the biological sciences.

These differences are often explained as consequences of young women’s lack of exposure to,

or poorer performance in high school mathematics, However, The American Freshman survey and the records of earned baccalaureates cast

considerable doubt on this explanation. According to the survey, 0.9 percent of the freshmen

women and 0.8 percent of the freshmen men surveyed in 1984 intended to major in mathematics.

More than 7 percent of the women and only 5.7’

percent of the men intended to specialize in accounting, Twenty-five percent of the men and 23

percent of the women intended to major in a business field other than “secretarial studies. ” According to the Scientific Manpower Commission,7

more than 40 percent of the bachelor’s degrees in

mathematics have been received by women every

year since 1974. Close to 40 percent of the business and management degrees and close to 35

percent of the computer science degrees were

bAlexander W. Astin, et al., The American Freshman: National

Norms for Fall 1984 (Los Angeles, CA: The Cooperative institutional Research Institute, University of California at Los Angeles,

December 1984), pp. 16-18, 32-34.

7Vetter and Babco, op. cit., p. 37.

awarded to women in 1982. Thus, it does not appear that women are avoiding quantitative fields

in general due to perceived inadequacies in their

mathematical capabilities. Rather, it appears that

women are avoiding engineering in particular—

despite significant increases in their enrollment in

that field in recent years—and, to a lesser degree,

physics.

To understand why women tend to select engineering as a college major so much less frequently

than men do, it is useful to examine those fields

which women tend to choose far n-tore often than

men. The fields with the largest differentials in

favor of women in The American Freshman are:

education (9.6 percent of the women, 2.8 percent

of the men); nursing (7.6 percent of the women,

0.3 percent of the men); and therapy (3.4 percent

of the women, 0.8 percent of the men). Those

three fields account for 20.6 percent of the women

and 3.9 percent of the men in the survey, a mirror image of the ratio in engineering (3. o percent

of the women, 20. I percent of the men).

Education, nursing, and therapy are all traditional “women’s fields,” while engineering is traditionally a “man’s field. ” Education, nursing, and

therapy are all considered to be “helping” and

“people-oriented” professions, whereas engineering is associated with building things and controlling the physical universe. Freshmen women’s

tendency to select the first three fields over engineering may simply indicate that traditional sexrole stereotypes and career patterns have not yet

worked their way out of the system.

This should hardly be surprising from a historical point of view. It is less than a decade and a

half since the women’s movement forced open the

doors to the traditionally male professions. All

of the parents and most of the teachers of the current crop of freshmen were raised in the profeminist era. There are significant groups and

leaders in the country who are not fully committed to the ideals of equality between the sexes in

the work force. Thus, the influential adults who

help to shape teenagers’ ideas about the world and

their place in it are not uniformly aligned in favor of efforts to break with traditional sex roles

and occupational choices. The persistence of a sizable fraction of college freshmen who remain true
117

.

to earlier stereotypes of “women’s” and “men’s”

work in these circumstances is hardly surprising.

Recent research by Gail Thomas tends to confirm the persistence of traditional sex-role stereotypes. Thomas found, from an extended study of

“Determinants and Motivations Underlying the

College Major Choice of Race and Sex Groups, ”

that the “choice of a college major entails a fairly

predictable process that is largely formalized prior

to college” and is “characterized by distinct (and

to a great extent traditional) male and female

interests, values, and aspirations held during

childhood. ” These findings, according to Thomas,

“imply the importance of traditional sex socialization. . . .“8

Sue Berryman finds an additional career-related

factor helping to explain young women’s decisions

to avoid quantitative majors in college. The

greater a woman’s expectation to assume the major child rearing responsibilities of her children,

the less likely she is to choose quantitative occupations that require major educational and labor

force commitments. The more she expects continuous labor force participation during adulthood, the more her occupational goals approximate those of young men. Berry man notes that

“studies show that male single parents make occupational and labor force adaptations to parenting that are similar to the plans of young women

who expect dual family and work responsibilities. ”9

Berry man sees young women’s career expectations interacting with their decision to take

advanced mathematics courses to produce the pattern of underrepresentation of women in quantitative fields. “Gender differences in grade 12

mathematics achievement are primarily attributable to differences in boys’ and girls’ participation

in elective mathematics during the 4 years in senior high school, ” according to Berryman. Prior

to grade 9, boys and girls do not differ significantly in average mathematical achievement. The

“Gall E. Thomas, Determinants and JWotivations Underling the

CoilegeAlajor Cho]ce o[]{ace dnci Sex C’rou~s (Baltimore, MD: Center for Social Organizations of Schools, Johns Hopkins University,

March 1983}, p. 40,

9Sue E. Berryman, “Minorities and Women in Mathematics and

Science: Who Chooses These Fields and Why?” presented at the 1985

annual meetings ot the American Association for the Advancement

of Science in Los Angeles, CA, May 1985, p. 14.

individual’s confidence in his or her mathematics

ability, and perception of the utility mathematics

will play in achieving educational and career

goals, are factors contributing to the participation in the high school mathematics sequence. The

stronger the two factors are, the greater the likelihood of partipation. Since career goals seem to

determine educational investments, gender differences in occupational expectations become key to

understanding gender differences in high school

mathematics participation. Berry man sums up by

stating: “the key for women seems to be their career choices, their investment in the junior and

senior high school mathematics and science sequences being related to these choices” (emphasis added).l ”

Although Berryman sees mathematics ability

and achievement as crucial to success in a quantitative career (“high mathematical achievement

at grade 12 predicts realization of grade 12 quantitative career plans by age 29”), she sees such

achievement as strongly related to, and influenced

by, career choices already being formed in high

school .

Once in college, it appears that young women

have significantly less trouble than young men

completing a quantitative baccalaureate. Fortytwo percent of the women, as opposed to 30 percent of the men, who begin college with a quantitative major emerge after 4 years with a quantitative B.A. In graduate school, however, further

attrition occurs. Women receive less than onethird as may quantitative master’s degrees and

one-fifth as many Ph. D.s. As a fraction of quantitative B.A.s women’s attainment of quantitative

M.A.s and Ph. D.s is less than half that of men.

The causes of women’s attrition from the science

and engineering “talent pool” in graduate school

are not well documented. The problem does not

appear to be with initial enrollment. The percentage of science and engineering graduate students

who are women is almost identical to the percentage of science and engineering B.A. s awarded to

women. There are some differences from field to

field, with a considerable underrepresentation of

women in mathematics and a significant overrepresentation in life science graduate programs,

‘“Ibid., pp. 13-14,
118

but overall the numbers are quite close, as can

be seen below:11

Field Percent B. A., Percent grad. enroll.,

women, 1980-82 women, 1982

Total, S/E. . . . . . . . .36.6% 35.3 %

Physical sciences . . . . .24.5 21.0

Engineering . ..............11. 0 10.9

Mathematical sciences, . . ..36.9 27.1

Life sciences . . . . . . . . . .. .40.0 52.4

social sciences . . . . .. ..51.8 47.0

The problem appears to be with persistence in

graduate school, with women’s participation decreasing “at each successive degree level. ”l2 Shirley

Malcom cites one possible cause of this decline—

lack of financial support: 13

In the 1981 Summary Report of Doctorate Recipients, a discussion of differences in financial

support of doctoral training is a cause for serious

concern. Women were more likely to report “self”

sources of support. This was the primary source

of support for 45 percent of the women but only

30 percent of the men. On the other hand, research assistantships were reported as the primary

source of support for the doctorate by over twice

as many men (22 percent) as women (10 percent).

Since research assistantships facilitate entry into

a research career, by providing access to equipment, mentors, conferences, and publications, the

differential access to research assistant support appears to be an especially important problem.

A second factor, however, is undoubtedly

women graduate students’ increasingly negative

perceptions of the actual benefits their advanced

degree training will bring them. Once in graduate school, women can often see in the behaviors

of their professors the forms of discrimination

they will face in the workplace, reducing considerably the return on their investment in higher education.

I )Vetter ind Babco, op. cit., P P. 27-37.

“Shirley M. Malcom, Women in Science and Engineering: An

Overview, prepared for the National Academy of Sciences (Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science,

September 1983), pp. 27 and 37.

“Ibid., p. 8.

Differential Treatment of

Women in the Science and

Engineering Work Force

It would be nice to report that once a woman

has gone through the time and trouble to receive

training in a science or engineering field, especially

to the Ph.D. level, she is safely ensconced in the

technical work force with as great a likelihood of

remaining there and receiving the full benefits of

her education as her male counterpart. Unfortunately that is not the case. Sue Berry man finds

that “labor force attrition rates differ far more by

gender than by race” with female attrition rates

“more than so percent higher than those of men. ”

In 1982, almost 25 percent of the women trained

as scientists and engineers, compared to 16 percent of the men, were not using their training in

the scientific and engineering labor force. Onethird of the women who were out of the labor

force in 1982 had left for reasons of family responsibilities. 14

Lilli Hornig, in an article entitled “Women in

Science and Engineering: Why So Few?” speaks

of a “gender gap in jobs” for women Ph. D.s in

the science and engineering work force. With the

exception of engineering, male scientists are able

to realize their plans for either employment or

postdoctoral fellowships sooner than women. In

academia, men are “far more likely than women

to be hired to tenure-track positions, to be promoted to tenure and to achieve full professorships. ” Women, on the other hand, “hold assistant professorships and nonfaculty positions more

than twice as often as men. In industrial research,

women Ph. D.s are underrepresented by about so

percent. ” Those who do obtain employment are

only about half as likely as men to advance to

management positions.l5

The salary differential between women and men

in comparable scientific positions is quite pronounced. Data from the National Science Foundation (NSF) show that women earn less than men

in almost every field of science, in every employ1’Berryman, 1985, op. cit., p. 7.

15 Li11i S. Hornig, “Women in Science and Engineering: Why So

Few7° Technology Review, November-December 1984, p. 40.
ment sector, and at every level of experience. 16

In 1982 the median annual salary of women scientists and engineers was 75 percent of that of their

male counterparts: $26,300 v. $35,000. The percentage was highest among the computer specialists at 86 percent, and lowest among the life scientists, social scientists, and physical scientists at 74

percent. (See table 5-l. ) Employed female scientists and engineers with less than 5 years’ experience earned on the average 90 percent as much

as their male counterparts; those with 31 to 35

years experience earned less than 78 percent.

Aline Quester, in an exhaustive study of “The

Utilization of Men and Women in Science and

Engineering Occupations: Task and Earning Comparability” finds that:17

Male scientists and engineers earn substantially

more than female scientists and engineers. While

“The 1;82 Postcen.sdl Surve~ of Scientists and Engineers, NSF

84-330 (Washington, 13C: National Science Foundation, 1984), tables B-32 and B-33, pp. 144-151; and Science ~nd Engineering Personnel: A ,Vationa) O\renriew, op. cit., table B-] 7, pp. 128-129. These

two publications are the sources for all the numbers in this paragraph. They are not quite consistent with one another.

‘“Aline 0. Quester, Utilization of ,Llen and ~l~omen in Science

and Engineering Occupations. Tash and Earning Comparabilit~r

(Alexandria, L’A: The Public Research Institute, July 1984),

119

one-fourth to one-third of the male earnings

premium is accounted for by differences in income-producing characteristics between males

and females (primarily different subfield concentrations), the other portion of the differential is

unexplained; the men simply earn more than the

women.

No observable variables have yet been isolated

which would account for the systematic earnings

differential. If no such variables emerge in the face

of repeated investigation, the presumption grows

stronger that the earnings differential rests on covert discrimination.

Unemployment

In 1974, NSF reported unemployment rates

[among all scientists and engineers] of 1.6 percent

for men and 4.1 percent for women. By 1982, unemployment rates had climbed to 1.9 percent for

men and 4.5 percent for women. Unemployment

rates for doctoral men and women scientists and

engineers were 0.9 and 3.9 percent, respectively,

in 1973, and 0.8 and 2.6 percent in 1983.

NSF found the smallest unemployment rate

differential between women and men among computer specialists, while the greatest difference was

Table 5-1. –Average Annual Salaries of Scientists and Engineers by Field and Sex/Race/Ethnic Group, 1982

Fiel d Tota l

Total, all fields ... . . ... ... . . .

Total scientists . ... . . . . . . .

Physical scientists . . . . . . ... .

Chemists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Physicists/astronomers . . . . . .

Other physical scientists . . . . . .

Mathematical scientists . . . . . . . . .

Mathematicians . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Statisticians . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Computer specialists ., . . . . . . . . . . .

Environmental scientists . . . . . . . . . .

Earth scientists . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Oceanographers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Atmospheric scientists . . . . . . . . .

Life scientists . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Biological scientists . . . . . . . . . .

Agricultural scientists . . . . . . . .

Medical scientists . . . . . . . . . . .

Psychologists . . . . . . . . . . . .

Social scientists ., . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Economists. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Sociologists/anthropologists . . . . .

Total engineers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

$34,000

31,700

34,700

33,600

37,900

35,000

34,800

35,400

32,800

32,200

36,800

37,600

34,600

32,700

28,900

28,200

27,500

38,900

28,800

30,600

34,700

24,900

$35,800

Men

$35,000

33,400

35,500

34,600

38,100

35,700

37,500

37,700

36,700

33,500

38,000

39,000

36,500

33,100

30,400

29,500

28,800

42,600

31,700

33,000

35,900

27,000

$36,000

Women

$26,300

25,800

26,400

25,500

32,600

26,300

29,100

29,500

28,100

28,800

29,900

30,300

22,300

28,500

22,500

22,500

17,900

28,200

23,900

24,300

29,600

21,600

—$29,000

White

$34,100

31,800

34,900

33,900

37,900

34,900

35,000

35,600

33,000

32,300

36,700

37,500

33,400

32,600

29,000

28,300

27,400

39,300

29,000

30,700

34,700

24,900

$35900

Black

$29,900

28,500

30,100

29,500

34,600

33,400

31,600

31,800

30,900

31,100

30,700

31,200

28,200

29,400

27,700

28,000

26,300

27,100

25,900

26,400

31,100

23,800

—- —..— $31,700

Asia n

$34,20 0

32,40 0

32,50 0

30,400

40,500

37,100

34,500

36,200

28,600

32,000

37,200

38,100

30,000

33,600

28,100

27,400

28,100

32,000

28,400

34,300

37,200

26,700

$35,100

Native

American Hispanic

$34,000

32,600

42,500

42,300

43,500

42,100

31,200

31,200

(1)

33,000

46,600

42,200

56,400

(1)

30,800

25,800

35,700

34,500

23,300

29,000

28,700

28,500

$35,000

$31,400

27,600

33,600

29,800

40,500

39,800

25,400

30,000

17,200

30,600

38,500

39,800

22,400

31,400

25,600

24,100

27,600

30,700

20,400

24,100

31,000

18,100

$33,700

SOURCE National Science Foundation Sc(ence and Eng(neenng Personnel A rVat~ona/ LWervlew NSF 85302, p 138
120

noted among social scientists. After controlling

for field, the unemployment rate for women remained twice that for men. For recent (1980 and

1981) science and engineering graduates at the

bachelor’s level, 7.7 percent of the women and

5.1 percent of the men were unemployed. Among

recent master’s degree graduates, 7.3 percent of

the women and 2.3 percent of the men were also

unemployed. 18

Underemployment

The term “underemployment” is used by NSF

to describe the combined effect of involuntary employment outside of science and engineering and

involuntary part-time employment where fulltime employment is sought. The “underemployment” rate for women scientists and engineers in

1982 was 5 percent; for men it was 1 percent. Part

of this difference was due to the greater concentration of men in engineering, where full-time employment is more the rule. But when only scientists are compared, women are still twice as likely

as men to be “underemployed. ” NSF reports that

underemployment rates for women are higher in

every field of science except for computer specialists, where the rates are essentially equal. This

is true also at the doctoral level, where underemployment rates for women are above those for

men in all major fields of science and engineering. 19

Rank and Tenure

According to Betty Vetter:20

Among all academically employed doctoral

scientists and engineers in 1983, 65.6 percent of

the men, but only 39.2 percent of the women,

were tenured. An additional 14 percent of men

and 21 percent of women were on the tenure

track, while 8.4 percent of men and 19.9 percent

of women were neither tenured nor in tenuretrack positions. . . .

The National Research Council (NRC), in 1981,

reported on the results of a survey of Career Outcomes in a Matched Sample of Men and Women

IS women and Mjnorjtje5 jn Scjence and Engineering (Wash%

ton, DC: National Science Foundation, January 1984), pp. 18-21.

191bid.

20 Betty M, Vetter, “Women in Science and Engineering, ” typescript, p. 10.

Ph. Ds. It found that for men and women with

degrees in the same field, in the same year, from

equally prestigious universities, significant gender differences could be found in employment,

rank and promotion, and salary. Specifically,

NRC found that:’1

Among the academically employed Ph.D.s who

were surveyed 20 or more years past the doctorate, 87 percent of the men were full professors

compared with 64 percent of the women.

For a given pair of one woman and one man

with matched characteristics [10-19 years past the

Ph.D.], the man is 50 percent more likely than

the woman to have been promoted to full professor.

Among 1970-1974 Ph. D,s one-third of the

women, but one-half of the men held senior

faculty posts. In every field, the distribution by

rank was less favorable for women than men,

based on their greater concentration among assistant professors and nonfaculty appointees.

Female salaries at major research universities

are significantly below the estimated salaries for

men with similar characteristics.

Salary differences between young male and female Ph. D.s in academe still exist, even after controlling for type and quality of doctoral training.

Lilli Hornig reports that only 79 out of approximately 4,200 faculty positions in the 171 Ph. D.-

granting physics departments in the United States

are held by women. Women hold only 188 of the

4,4oo faculty positions in chemistry departments

that grant the doctorate. 22 This situation exists despite the fact that, according to NRC, there are

more than 3,600 women doctoral chemists in the

U.S. labor force. ” Vivian Gornick, in her book

on Women in Science likens the situation of

women in chemistry to that of “Jews in Czarist

Russia. ”24 She reports the following statement

from an anonymous woman chemist at a “great

research university ’’:25

z INancy C. Ahern and Elizabeth L, Scott, Career Outcomes in

a Matched Sample of Men and Women Ph. D.s —An Analytical Report (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1981 ), pp. xvii,

. . . Xvlll.

ZZHornig, op. cit., P. 41.

Z~Betty D. Maxfie]d and Mary Belisle, Science, Engineering, and

Humanities Doctorates in the United States: 1983 Profile (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1985), p. 28.

Iqvivian Gornick, Women in Science (New York: Simon &

Schuster, 1981), p. 98.

zsIbid,, pp. 102-103.
121

.

The chemistry department here doesn’t advertise. It’s illegal now, but they still do it that way.

Somehow they consider it a “shame” to advertise.

They write to their friends. And of course their

friends are men who have only male graduate students. But even so, some awfully good young

women get through the system and come up here

for interviews. It’s always the same. They look

at these excellent young women and they say,

“She’s very good but she lacks seasoning. Let her

go off somewhere else for the year and then we’ll

consider her again. ” Of the young men just like

her they say, “We’d better grab him before someone else does. ”

Implications for Women’s Participation

in Science and Engineering

Of the many factors that reduce the participation of women in science and engineering education and employment, the discriminatory practices discussed in the preceding section are perceived

by many to be the most serious impediments to

the goal of equality of opportunity. Those practices are thought to violate the equity principle

most directly, because they affect people who

have established, by virtue of obtaining an advanced degree, the right to pursue a scientific career based solely on the quality of their work,

Their effect on women who have made the long

and arduous investment in training for a scientific career can be devastating. Vivian Gornick describes discrimination against women in science

as:

. . . the kind of experience that becomes lodged

in the psyche: both the individual one and the collective one. It may go unrecorded in the intellect

but it is being registered in the nerve and in the

spirit. It means sustaining a faint but continuous

humiliation that, like low-grade infection, is

cumulative in its power and disintegrating in its

ultimate effect [emphasis added].26

The differential treatment of women in the

science and engineering work force is beIieved to

have a significant effect on female students in the

educational “pipeline. ” A woman student in a

physics or chemistry department where no women

have achieved tenure, or, perhaps, even been

hired to a tenure-track position, is not likely to

form a positive picture of her likely future employment prospects. Nor will she experience the

kind of role model which the literature on equality of opportunity suggests is desirable to assist

a young woman in identifying herself with her future profession. These two factors will considerably decrease the motivation for such a student

to make the sacrifices required to stay in graduate school and complete her Ph.D.

Finally, the discrimination, higher attrition

rates, greater unemployment, and underemployment experienced by women as compared to men

in science and engineering are seen by many to

be a serious waste of human resources that have

been cultivated and prepared at considerable expense to the individual and the Nation.

The two avenues for dealing with this problem

appear to be strict enforcement of existing affirmative action laws, and leadership from within the

scientific community. As Lilli Hornig writes :27

Despite the widespread nonenforcement of

“affirmative action, ” laws against explicit bias

have opened up much broader access to education and careers for women. Universities discourage most of the more obvious forms of discrimination against woman and point with pride

to equal access and success for women students

. . . . The most effective way to deal with [less

explicit disparities] is probably not by external intervention but through the leadership of administrators and senior faculty. MIT took this approach more than a decade ago and has had

considerable success in recruiting women as both

students and faculty, even in fields that have

traditionally “had no women. ”

The National Academy of Engineering, in its

report on Engineering Education and Practice in

the United States,28 has taken such a leadership

role. It finds “anecdotal” evidence that “female

engineering professors are not obtaining tenure

at the same rate as their male counterparts” and

“a perception of discrimination against female

faculty members in assignment of teaching responsibilities and in selection for research teams. ” It

recommends that college administrators “make a

candid assessment of the negative aspects of

campus life for women faculty members” and,

where these are found, “take firm steps to eliminate them. ”

27 Hornig, op. cit, p. LII.

l~h~ationa] Research Counci], Engineering &h.Kation and prad;~e

in the United States—Foundations of” Our Techno-Economic Future

(Washington r DC: National Academy Press, 1985], p. 9 4 .
MINORITIES

Minorities represented 9.7 percent of the science

and engineering work force in 1982, up from

about 5.5 percent in 1976, but substantially less

than their 18.0 percent representation in the general working population. Blacks constituted 2.6

percent of the Nation’s scientists and engineers,

as compared to 10.4 percent of the general labor

force. Hispanics represented 2.2 percent of the

scientific and engineering work force, as opposed

to 5.5 percent of the total labor force. On the

other side of the coin, Asian-Americans’ 4.5-

percent share of the scientific work force was

nearly triple their 1.6-percent share of the working population in the United States.29

In the educational “pipeline,” minorities’ differential experience in science and engineering

from that of white males is also quite dramatic.

As table 5 - 2

30 shows, blacks, Hispanics, and

American Indians receive degrees in quantitative

fields at less than half the rate of whites, while

the rates for Asian-Americans are more than double that of the white population. The numbers in

the table represent the ratio of the percent of quantitative degrees awarded to the particular group

to its percentage representation in the age-relevant

population. For example, blacks received 4.1 percent of the quantitative B.A.s in 1978-79, but were

“Vetter and Babco, op. cit., p. 96. See also Statistical Abstract

of the United States, 1985 (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of

Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1985), pp. 391-392.

30 Berryman, 1983, op. cit., p. 21.

Table 5-2.—1978/79 Representation in Quantitatively

Based Fieldsa Relative to Representation in

Age-Relevant Population by Degree Level

and Racial and Ethnic Group

Degree level

Professional

Racial and ethnic group B.A. M.A. Ph.D. degrees

Whites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.13 1.12 1.12 1.12

Blacks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.32 0.21 0.16 0.35

Hispanics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.55 0.29 0.21 0.47

American Indians . . . . . . . 0.43 0.50 0.33 0.50

Asian-Americans . , . . . . . . 1.93 2.79 2.71 1.58

aQ”antltatlvely based fields for the B.A M A , and Ph D. are defined to Include

the physical sciences, mathematics, computer sciences, biological sciences,

englneerlng, and economics For professional degrees the f!elds are blologl.

cally or physically based and deftned to Include med!clne, dent! stry, optometry,

osteopathy, podtatry veterinary medicine, and pharmacy

SOURCE Sue Berryman, Who VVlll Do Science (New York The Rockefeller Foundation, 1983), p 21

12.9 percent of the age 22 population, leading to

a ratio of 0.32 in the table.

The very low ratios for blacks, Hispanics, and

American Indians are, in fact, the product of two

factors: the tendency of these groups to receive

higher education degrees at far lower rates than

whites, and their tendency, as well, to major in

nonquantitative fields. These two factors are displayed in tables 5-3 and 5-4.3

’ Blacks, Hispanics,

and American Indians are 50 to 62 percent as

likely as whites to obtain a baccalaureate, and 30

to 66 percent as likely to receive a Ph.D. Among

those who do obtain the two degrees, the three

minority groups under discussion are 62 to 88 percent as likely as whites to have majored in a quantitative field at the undergraduate level, and 39

..——

‘ibid., pp. 18 and 20.

Table 5-3.—1978/79 Representation Relative to

Representation in the Age-Relevant Population by

Degree Level and Racial and Ethnic Group

Degree level

Racial and Associat e Professional

ethnic group degree B.A. MA. Ph, D, degre e

Whites ., . . . . . . . 1.04 —1.11 1.10 1 11 1 14

Blacks ., . 0.70 0.51 058 0.4 1 0.35

Hlspanlcs ... ., . . 0.86 0.62 0.36 0.31 0.45

American Indians . . . 0.86 0,57 0.66 0.66 0.50

AsIan-Americans . 1.27 1.13 1,05 1 3 3 0.95

SOURCE Sue Berryman, kVbo VVfll Do Scferrce (New York The-Rockefelle~ Foun

datlon, 1983), P 21

Table 5-4.—1978/79 Representation in Quantitatively

Based Fieldsa Relative to Representation in

Total Degrees by Degree Level and

Racial and Ethnic Group

Degree level

Professional

Racial and ethnic group B.A. M.A. Ph.D. degrees

Whites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.02 1.02 1.01 0.99

Blacks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.62 0.36 0.39 0.98

Hispanics . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.88 0.80 0.69 1.04

American Indians . . . . . . . 0.75 0.75 0.50 1.00

Asian-Americans . . . . . . 1.71 2.65 2.04 1.67

aQuantitatlvely based fields for the B A , M A , and ph D are defined to Include

the physlcai sctences, mathematics, computer sctences, biological sciences.

engineering, and economics For professional degrees the fields are biologically or physically based and defined to Include medlclne, dentistry, optometry,

osteopathy, podiatry, veterinary medlclne, and pharmacy

SOURCE Sue Berryman, Who W(I1 Do Scferrce (New York The Rockefeller Foun.

datlon, 1983), p 21
123

to 69 percent as likely to have majored in a quantitative field on the graduate level. The ratios in

table 5-2 are the product of the ratios in tables

5-3 and 5-4 for each racial and ethnic group and

each degree level.

Asian-Americans are about equal to whites in

their likelihood of obtaining higher education

degrees. However, they are more than twice as

likely to select quantitative majors in college and

graduate school. This picture for Asian-Americans

may, however, be deceiving. Robert Suzuki claims

that 85 to 90 percent of the Asian American scientists and engineers are non-U. S. citizens, or

naturalized citizens who immigrated to this country to pursue their college education. This indicates, according to Dr. Suzuki, that: 32

American-born Asian/Pacific Americans of

second, third and even fourth generation who

bear the legacy of 130 years of racial oppression

and who generally trace their ancestry to poor immigrant peasants are probably not over-represented in science and engineering and, indeed they

may still be underrepresented, although I know

of no definitive studies on this subject.

On the other hand, most of the foreign-born

Asian/Pacific Americans in science and engineering come from the more affluent classes in their

countries of origin and represent perhaps the top

one-hundredth of 1 percent of their country’s populations. Consequently, these persons have not

suffered the historical discrimination experienced

by their American-born counterparts. Moreover,

they generally represent an elite class, the cream

of the cream, who are likely to do well even as

immigrants.

Dr. Suzuki is undoubtedly overstating the case.

However, because the high participation rate

among Asian-Americans in science and engineering education and employment does not constitute a problem in equality of opportunity, we will

use the term “minorities” to refer exclusively to

blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans in this

chapter. Asian-Americans will be discussed separately, where appropriate.

Due to limitations of time and space, differences

between blacks, Hispanics, and American Indians,

“b’ S. Congress, House C{~mmittee on Science and Techno]og},

Subcommittee on Science, S}’mpo.sium on )$linor](ies and 11’omen

In S( fence and i’_echnolt)A~}’ ( llrash i n.gton, DC: U.S. C,(~vernmen t

I’nntlnx C)tt]ce, ]ul}r 1%32 I, p, 12,

between men and women in each minority group

and between the different Hispanic subgroups cannot be discussed in this technical memorandum.

The omission of a discussion of these differences

is not meant to imply that they are insignificant.

The quality of academic preparedness in secondary school is cited by many experts as the

greatest factor affecting minorities’ academic performance and baccalaureate attainment in college.

The greater attrition levels in the sciences of minority groups correlates very highly with measures of academic preparedness, such as high

school grades, aptitude test scores, quality of

study habits, rigor of the high school curriculum,

and perceived need for tutoring. Of those factors,

Alexander Astin found that grade average and

class rank were more important predictors of undergraduate grades and persistence than were

standardized test scores .33

Unlike some other disciplines, it is essential to

begin the science course sequence at an early stage

in the high school curriculum. Fields such as

chemistry, physics, and engineering require extensive preparatory coursework. Students in private high schools who have greater access to college preparatory curricula, including advanced

mathematics and science courses, than do students

in public high schools, tend to choose mathematics and science majors in larger proportions.

The poor quality of mathematics and science curricula in many inner-city high schools has been

found to be a contributing factor to the low rate

of selection of science and mathematics majors

among minorities. It has been found that a higher

percentage of black students from predominantly

white high schools choose mathematics-based

majors than blacks from predominantly black

high schools. 34 In a study of 474 juniors and

seniors at Wayne State University, where one-fifth

of the students are black, it was found that:35

Over 70 percent of the white science majors felt

their high school training was adequate while less

“Alexander W, Astin, Minorities in American Higher Education:

Recent Trends, Current Prospects & Recommendations (San Francisco, CA: lossey-Bass, Inc., 1982), p. 180.

“Thomas, op. cit., p. 8.

“Maureen A. Sic, et al,, “Minority Groups and Science Careers, ”

Integrate Education, vol. 16, May-lune 1978, pp. 44-45: quoted in

Nleyer L4retnberg, The Search for Quality Integrated Education: Polic~’ and Research on .$linorit>, Students in School and College (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1983 ), p. 288.
124

than 50 percent of the black science majors did.

Sie and her colleagues found that a number of

black students had taken advantage of special opportunities in secondary school: Of the twentyfour black science majors, thirteen went to Cass

Technical High School where science is emphasized.

Because of the high-level of preparation required for the sciences many minorities opt for

other fields of study. Astin’s study revealed that

with the possible exception of Puerto Ricans, during their senior year in high school minority students already show a strong preference for an education major and a tendency to avoid majors in

the physical sciences and mathematics and in engineering. This was attributed in part to the students relatively poor academic preparation at the

secondary school level.36 Sue Chipman and Veronica Thomas report that “a survey of high school

students who were seniors in 1980 indicated that

black, Hispanic, and Native American students

were only about half as likely to have taken advanced math courses as white students, whereas

Asian-American students were about twice as

likely to have done sO. ”37

The educational level of the minority student’s

parents plays an important role in determining

whether the student will be enrolled in an engineering or science curriculum. Students whose

parents have obtained college or graduate degrees

are more often enrolled in quantitative majors

than are students who have less well-educated parents. Sue Berryman found that “being second generation college not only increases, but also equalizes, the choices of quantitative majors across

white, black, American Indian, Chicano and

Puerto Rican college freshmen. ”38 (Asian-American students select quantitative majors at much

higher rates than any other group whether their

parents have a college education or not. ) Collegeeducated parents apparently tend to assume their

children will also attend college, and therefore encourage them to enroll in the required prepara3’Astin, op. cit., pp. 73-74.

“Susan F. Chipman and Veronica G, Thomas, “The Participation of Women and Minorities in Mathematical, Scientificr and Technical Fields, ” commissioned by the Committee on Research in Mathematics, Science, and Technology Education of the National Research

Council Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, September 1984, p. 49.

jfl Berryman, 1985, op. cit ~ I P. 17”

tory courses. College-educated parents also appear to be better informed about the importance

of pre-college training, and expose their children

to a greater variety of career options.

The financial resources available to the minority college student play an important role in determining academic success and attrition rates.

Minority students typically experience difficulty

in financing undergraduate study. They must rely

more on scholarship, work-study, and loan programs in contrast to nonminority students, who

receive greater family support. In 1975, black and

Hispanic college-bound high school seniors estimated that their parents would contribute about

$200 a year toward college expenses, while the

median figure for whites was over $1,100. That

same year minority students comprised one-third

of the persons assisted through the major U.S. Office of Education aid programs. Upon graduation

from college, immediate employment opportunities may appear more rewarding than advanced

study in view of the prospect of further financial

difficulties, the academic risk of graduate study

(about half of all doctoral candidates fail to complete Ph.D. degrees), and labor market uncertainties. 39 Associated with these financial difficulties

are the problems of the working student in general. If a student must hold down a full-time job

while in college he or she is less likely to complete his or her baccalaureate .40

Factors such as poor academic preparedness

and inadequate financial support provide a surface-level explanation of why minorities tend to

participate at lower rates in higher education in

general, and science and engineering in particular. Underlying these factors are the deeper issues

of culture and social class. Sue Berryman describes

the importance of these factors as follows:4

1

Racial and ethnic differences in mathematical

achievement that we observe at grade 9 appear ——— —

“National Board on Graduate Education, Minorit y Group Participation in Graduate Education (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1976), p. 8.

‘OAstin, op. cit., p. 109.

“Berryman, 1985, op. cit., pp. 14-17, the studies cited by Berryman to support her conclusions are the following:

● J. D. Coleman, et al., Equality 0[ Educational Opportunity

(Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health, Education, and

welfare, 1966).

● R. H. Dave, “The Identification and Measurement of Environmental Process Variables That Are Related to Educational
at grade 1, [with] blacks, Chicanos, and Puerto

Ricans starting school with mean scores on verbal and non-verbal tests of achievement below the

national white average.

Two momentous factors contribute to the relationship between ethnicity and mathematical performance at each educational stage: culture and

social class. Both affect family behavior patterns

which in turn powerfully affect children’s school

performances.

A study of verbal, reasoning, numeric and spatial achievements among Puerto Rican, Jewish,

Chinese, and black children at grade 1 shows clear

racial and ethnic differences in the patterns of

these abilities and subsequent studies suggest that

ethnic differences in ability patterns at grade 1

persist through elementary and secondary school.

More important, although social class has important effects on the level of abilities of each group,

it does not alter the basic pattern of abilities associated with each group.

At the same time, the study shows that middleclass children from the various ethnic groups resemble each other to a greater extent than scores

of the lower-class children from the different

groups . . . . Social class has a particularly profound effect on the performance of black children,

lower class status depressing performance more

for these children than for children from the lower

classes of other ethnic groups.

Social class seems to be a proxy for family characteristics that affect school achievement. For example, an American study showed that characteristics such as the family’s press for achievement,

language models in the home, academic guidance

●

●

●

●

●

●

Achievement, ” University of Chicago, unpublished doctoral dissertation, 1963.

R.L. Flaugher, Project Access Research Report No. 22—Patterns

of Test Performance by High School Students of Four Ethnic

Identities, Research Bulletin RB-71-25 (Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing Service, 1971 ).

C. Jencks, et al., Znequa)it~-A Reassessment of the Effect ot

Famil-v and Schooling ~n America (New York: Basic Books,

1972).

G.S. Lesser, “Cultural Differences in Learning and Thinking

Styles, ” lnditiciuality in Learning, S. Messick (cd. ) (San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass, Inc., 1976).

G.S. Lesser, et al., A4ental Abilities of Children From Ditferent Social-Class and Cultural Groups, Monographs of Society

for Research in Child Development, Serial No. 102, vol. 30,

No. 4, 1965.

K. Marjoribanks, Ethnic Families and Children Achievements

(Sydney: George Allen & Unwin, 1979).

K, Marjoribanks, Families and Their Learning Environments

(London: Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1979),

125

—

provided by the home, indoor and outdoor activities of the family, intellectuality in the home—

as represented by the nature and quality of toys,

games and hobbies available to the child, and

work habits in the family together correlated at

0.80 with children’s achievement scores.

An analysis of 1972 data on blacks’ choice of

and persistence in a science major found that family socioeconomic status affects blacks’ choice of

a science major. Higher family socioeconomic status increased the rate of choosing science majors,

the effect operating by increasing the mother’s

educational aspirations for the student and the

student’s high school mathematical achievement.

When white and black students were equated on

the intervening variables, blacks had a higher

probability of choosing a science major than

whites [emphasis in the original].

Sue Chipman and Veronica Thomas find that

“lower educational and career aspirations associated with lower socio-economic status may undermine minority students perception of the utility of mathematics . . . .“ She adds that it is “quite

possible that minority students, again because of

their socio-economic status, have still less knowledge of the relationship between mathematics and

particular occupational goals than do students in

general. ”42

Betty Vetter reports on a study carried out by

the National Opinion Research Center in 1980 for

the Departments of Defense and Labor .43 It identified a nationally representative sample of nearly

12,00016- to 23-year old men and women, and

administered to this group the Armed Forces

Qualification Test (AFQT), a general measure of

trainability and enlistment eligibility for the armed

forces. The test showed that youths from higher

socioeconomic groups scored higher than those

from lower socioeconomic groups; that white

youths generally did better than black or Hispanic

youths; but the strongest single predictor of both

the AFQT score and reading ability was the

mother’s educational level. Later analyses suggested that the measured correlation of mother’s

education with test performance approximated the

“’Chipman and Thomas, op. cit., p. 50.

“Betty M. Vetter, “The Emerging Demographics—Effect on National Policy in Education and on a Changing Workforce, ” contractor

report prepared for the U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, May-June 1Q85, p. 50.
126

. .

combined measured correlation of the four variables usually used to determine socioeconomic

status: mother’s education, father’s education,

average family income, and father’s occupational

status.

The differences were substantial. Youth whose

mothers had completed eighth grade or less scored

in the 29th percentile on the tests. Those whose

mothers had completed high school had an average percentile score of 54. Those whose mothers

were college graduates or more averaged 71.

The effect of socioeconomic status or class on

minorities’ persistence in the science and engineering educational pipeline is a cause for optimism

among some, pessimism among others. Sue Berryman paints the optimistic picture :44

In the short run, specially designed interventions can increase minority shares of quantitative

degrees by targeting those who have the capacities to respond to these interventions, but who,

in their absence, would probably not pursue a

quantitative training program and career. In the

long run, the trends favor increased minority

representation in the quantitative fields. The

growing number of second generation black and

Hispanic college students will bean important factor in increasing the representation of these groups

in the nation’s scientific and engineering labor

force.

Betty Vetter makes the more pessimistic case.

She points out that 44 percent of all black households and 23 percent of Hispanic households are

headed by single women. Nearly 72 percent of all

black families and 46 percent of Hispanic families

with incomes below the poverty level were maintained by single women. Seventy percent of all

black children are being brought up in poverty.

She concludes that:45

We can anticipate an increasing school dropout rate among Hispanic and black children,

growing up with young, single mothers who, because they have too little education themselves,

are unlikely to be able to provide the incentives

that may be required to keep their children in

school and learning . . . . If present trends continue, we can anticipate that more of [the baby

boom echo group] will drop out of school or out

of math and science classes at earlier stages, and

far fewer of them will obtain the educational preparation required for professional participation in

quantitative fields.

In reality, both pictures may be true. An increasing number of minority students with middle

class, college-educated parents, will undoubtedly

enroll in higher education and major in science

and engineering. However, an even larger number of black and Hispanic students from poor,

single-parent households will find a college education and a science or engineering career difficult

to achieve due to poor academic preparedness.

Differential Treatment

in the Work Force

As was the case for women, minorities have a

somewhat different experience from that of whites

in the science and engineering work force. Recent

NSF data4

’ indicate that unemployment rates

among black and Asian-American scientists and

engineers were significantly higher than those of

whites: 4.6 and 3.3 percent, respectively, versus

2.1 percent for whites. The unemployment rate

for Hispanic scientists and engineers, by contrast,

was about the same as that of whites, while Native American scientists and engineers had substantially lower unemployment rates. Black,

Hispanic, and Native American scientists and

engineers were somewhat less likely than whites

to be employed in science and engineering (81 to

83 percent versus 87 percent), Asian-American

scientists and engineers were somewhat more

likely (90 percent) to be so employed.

Blacks and Hispanics reported significantly

lower salaries than whites in science and engineering. The average salary for whites in all science

and engineering fields was $34,200; that for blacks

$30,100; and that for Hispanics $31,500. The salary differentials varied from lows of $5OO between

white and Hispanic environmental scientists and

$900 between white and black computer specialists, to highs of $9,800 between white and Hispanic mathematical scientists, and $7,OOO between

white and black environmental scientists. Asian

and Native American scientists and engineers reid Berryman, 1985, op. cit., P. 4.

dsvetter, 1985, op. cit., P. 7.

dbwomen and Mjnorjtjes in Science and Engineering, op. cit., pp.

viii, ix, 20-24.
ported salaries almost

white counterparts.

127

identical to those of their not report strong evidence for discrimination in

the work force against minority scientists and

Despite these differences in salaries and unem- engineers.

ployment rates, analysts consulted by OTA did

EFFECTIVENESS OF PROGRAMS TO PROMOTE PARTICIPATION

As shown in the preceding sections, many of

the factors that inhibit participation in science and

engineering by women and minorities are related

to pre-college experience, both academic and

nonacademic. These factors include overall poor

academic preparedness (for blacks and other minorities); lack of exposure to the needed science

and mathematics sequence (for minorities and

women); socialization factors that underemphasize the desirability or appropriateness of a scientific or engineering career (especially for women);

poverty and inadequate financial resources (especially for minorities); and family characteristics

that affect school achievement. To some degree,

it appears that these early factors can be overcome, or at least compensated for, by special programs designed to facilitate access to science and

engineering education for disadvantaged cultural

groups.

In 1983 the Office of Opportunities in Science

of the American Association for the Advancement

of Science (AAAS) conducted an “assessment of

programs that facilitate increased access and

achievement of females and minorities in K-12

mathematics and science education” for NSF. 47

The assessment was based on a survey questionnaire to the directors of more than 400 pre-college

intervention programs for women and minorities,

and site visits to more than 50 exemplary projects

in different regions of the United States. Time and

budget limitations precluded AAAS from carrying out formal evaluations of the programs it surveyed, but the results of such evaluations, where

they had been performed independently, were requested from program directors in the survey.

‘“Shirley Nl, Nlalcorn, et al., ,Equity and Excellence: Compatible

Goals (Washington, DC: American Association for the Advancement of Science, December 1984).

AAAS found that “the primary feature of successful programs for minorities and females seems

to be that they involve the students in the ‘doing’

of science and mathematics and convey a sense

of their utility. ” Such “exemplary programs” are

“sensitive to the group or groups they are intended

to serve and address these audiences’ fundamental needs for academic enrichment and career information :48

Exemplary programs for minorities recognize

the deficiencies in performance many students are

likely to have and stress rigorous academic preparation in mathematics, science and communications . . . . Projects for females focus heavily on

career awareness—on the utility of mathematics

and science to whatever they might want to do.

Young women are encouraged to take all the

courses available to them in high school. They are

shown models of science and engineering professionals and students who “are making it” in these

fields.

In general, AAAS found that these programs

“have demonstrated that there are no inherent

barriers to the successful participation of women

and minorities in science or mathematics, ” if these

groups are provided with “early, excellent, and

sustained instruction in these academic areas. ”

AAAS also found that:”

Successful intervention programs are those that

have strong leadership, highly trained and highly

committed teachers, parent support and involvement, clearly defined goals, adequate resources,

follow-up and evaluation. For the positive effects

to be sllstained, these programs must eventually

be institutionalized, that is, made part of the

educational system . . . .

Scientists and engineers from the affected

groups must be involved in the planning as well

as in the implementation of projects . . . .

4FIbid. , pp, vii-viii.

“’Ibid., p. viii.
128

Intervention programs must begin early and

must be long-term in nature; “one-time” or shortterm efforts do have a place for motivational, informational, supplemental or transitional purposes.

AAAS reported on a number of specific intervention programs that could document their success. An evaluation of the Mathematics, Engineering, Science Achievement (MESA) Program of the

Lawrence Hall of Science in Berkeley, CA, which

includes 16 centers, 131 high schools and about

3,4oo students, found that:50

Of recent MESA graduates, 90 percent have attended a college or university and approximately

66 percent have pursued a math-based field of

study. MESA seniors performed significantly

higher than college-bound seniors of similar racial/ethnic backgrounds across the nation. MESA

seniors at sampled schools did not differ significantly on SAT performance from the total population of college-bound seniors . . . . despite the

fact that the sampled schools were among the

lowest-achieving schools in the state.

The Summer Science Enrichment Program at

Atlanta University provides summer instruction

in mathematics, science, and communication to

high school juniors, most of whom are black. All

338 of the students who have participated in this

program since its inception in 1979 have gone on

to college, and 95 percent of them have majored

in a quantitative field. It should be noted that this

program selects students with demonstrated interest and performance in science and mathematics.

The Philadelphia Regional Introduction for Minorities to Engineering (PRIME) is a consortium

of more than 34 businesses, 14 government and

civic organizations, and 7 universities and public schools which has operated in the Philadelphia

area for more

— -— —— --

501 bid., p. 56.

than 9 years. It is a supplementary

program in science and mathematics which begins in seventh grade and takes students through

high school. Of the more than 820 high school

seniors who have graduated from this program

since 1977, more than 60 percent have chosen

careers in engineering and/or technology. In addition, the number of minority students in the Philadelphia area enrolled in academic-track high

school programs has tripled during the years of

operation of the PRIME project, with one-third

of those students in the PRIME project.

The Professional Development Program (PDP)

of the University of California, Berkeley, is a

faculty-sponsored program which recruits sophomores from 45 public and private high schools in

eight districts to participate in special summer academic programs and Saturday classes during the

school year, Over 60 percent of the students are

women, and 75 percent are black or Hispanic. Of

the 421 students from 60 local schools that have

completed the program, “90 percent have gone

on to college and a substantial number are in

quantitative fields.’’” The average SAT mathematics scores of the 1981-82 PDP senior class was

598.

These projects illustrate the general point made

by AAAS that intervention programs at the precollege level can be effective in increasing the participation of women and minorities in science and

engineering education. A far more systematic and

thorough evaluation would be required to document the extent to which changes observed can

be reliably attributed to the effects of the programs

themselves. It should be noted that participation

in these programs is voluntary, so those affected

by the programs tend to be students who are already somewhat motivated toward science and

engineering.

“Ibid., p. 56.

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

The AAAS report on Equity and Excellence: specifically targets large sectors of our societv

Compatible Goals, cited above, states that “the .“. . .“ The NSF Authorization Act of 1981, Secmagnitude and complexity of the problem” of tion 35(a), required the President to submit to

equality of access to scientific and engineering Congress, by January 29, 1982, a report “proposcareers requires “a large and continuing effort that ing a comprehensive national policy and program,
129

-.

including budgetary and legislative recommendations, for the promotion of equal opportunity for

women and minorities in science and technology. ”

That report has neither been prepared nor transmitted to Congress. Therefore, there is, at this

writing, no national policy or program to promote equal opportunity in science and engineering for women and minorities.

The Director of NSF did submit a report to

Congress on December 15, 1981, in conformity

with Section 34(b) of the 1981 NSF Authorization

Act which required “a report proposing a comprehensive and continuing program at the Foundation to promote the full participation of minorities in science and technology. ” However the

report contained neither budgetary nor legislative

recommendations as required by the Act, and

contained little more than restatement of existing

policies and programs. 52 I n 

fact the report at -

tempted to rationalize budget cuts in a number

of programs that were created in the 1970s, including the Minority Institutions Science Improvement Program (MISIP), the Resource Centers for

Science and Engineering Program (RCSE), the Student Science Training (SST) Program, the Opportunities for Women in Science Program (OWS),

and the Visiting Professorships for Women Program (VPW),

In the absence of executive branch leadership

in this area, the AAAS study recommended that

the following steps be taken by the Federal Government: 53

Federal support for programs to improve the

quality of pre-college education in science, mathematics, and technology should require that

proposals specifically address themselves to plans

for serving women, minority, and disabled student populations.

Federally supported programs for teacher training and retraining should require that teaching

methods and career and equity aspects be included, along with a rigorous focus on improving

competence in subject content.

The Federal Government should support dissemination of models previously shown to be

“National Science Foundation, “Proposals of the National Science

Foundation to Promote the Full Participation of Minorities and

women in Science and Engineering, ” typescript, December 1981 ~ggl

“klalcom, op. cit., p. 30,

effective in improving science and mathematics

education for women and minorities, including

technical assistance on management and evaluation systems . . . .

. . . . previously supported programs that had

a strong positive educational impact on women

and minorities should be reexamined for possible

reinstitution. Of particular interest in this regard

are the RCSE and SST programs.

In order to better understand the policy implications of the problems experienced by women

and minorities related to participation in science

and engineering education, OTA sponsored a

panel discussion among experts54 in this area on

July 2, 1985. The findings of the panel are presented below:

Issue l—Keeping Options Open

1.

2.

3.

4.

The self-perception of women and minorities

of their inability to succeed in science and

mathematics courses is frequently reinforced

by the system’s perception of their inability

to do science and engineering.

Opportunities should be provided for this

population to experience success in science

and mathematics courses prior to grade 9 as

weIl as opportunities for them to perceive the

variety of career options and lifestyles that

are based on these disciplines.

The Federal Government should support improvements in the training of junior high

school science and mathematics teachers, the

development of counseling programs involving teachers and parents and the identification and funding of model programs which

enhance the self-perception of students.

Tests should be developed that are better indicators of the potential of women and minorities to succeed in science and mathematics careers.

Issue 2—Reducing Attrition

1. The graduate student pipeline should be enlarged by providing long-term support for

promising minority and women students

who are satisfactorily progressing toward the

“The panel consisted of Lloyd Cooke, Michael Crowley, Maria

Hardy, Shirley Malcom, Shirley McBay, Denis Paul, Willie Pearson, Luther Williams, Allan Hoffman, and Jerrier Haddad.
130

2.

3.

4.

5.

.

Ph.D. degree in science and engineering with

identification and support beginning at the

junior year in college.

The circumstances which lead to the success

of women and minority students in science

and engineering should be studied, and the

knowledge obtained applied to improving

the retention of less successful students.

Opportunities for early experience in research should be provided for minority and

women students beginning at the undergraduate level. Existing efforts at the graduate

level should be strengthened.

The Federal Government should disseminate

and encourage programs and operating conditions which demonstrably facilitate the

retention of women and minorities in science

and engineering.

Federal Government affirmative action

guidelines for recipients of Federal funds

should be extended to protect against the following:

. sexual harassment of women students, and

● bias of some foreign professors whose cultures hold women in low status.

In addition to the above options for increasing

the pool size and reducing attrition, it is probable

that further gains might be realized if more were

known about how different minority subgroups

respond to different options. For example, differences may exist:

● for blacks, American Indians, and Hispanics;

. within the various Hispanic subgroups (e. g.,

Chicanos, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans); and

● for minority

This suggests the

this issue. Further

pendix B.

and nonminority women.

need for support of studies on

suggestions are provided in ap-
Appendixes
Appendix A

The Education and Utilization of

Biomedical Research Personnel

Introduction

As a nation, we spend $300 billion per year on

health care, or 10 percent of the gross national product (GNP). National attention to biomedical research

and its potential for health benefit has been consistently strong since World War II, driven by the hope

that science will provide us with longer and healthier

lives.

These early beginnings lead to a relatively high level

of Federal support for both research and training in

the biomedical sciences in comparison to other disciplines. The Government, through the National Institutes of Health (NIH), made an early commitment

to the training of biomedical research personnel

through the establishment of the NIH training and fellowship programs. In addition, Congress has ensured

a substantial and consistent level of support for biomedical research through favorable appropriations to

NIH, the parent agency for federally funded biomedical research programs. As a result of this two-pronged

Federal approach to the biomedical sciences through

support of both research and training programs, the

biomedical research field has suffered few of the critical personnel shortages and/or surpluses found in

other scientific disciplines, It is, therefore, worth examining the Federal program for training and supporting biomedical research personnel in some depth. It

is an example of a continuous and mostly successful

Federal personnel policy in an important scientific

field.

Basic Biomedical Research Personnel

[Ph.D.s]

Training

The higher education training system in basic biomedical research consists of at least two, and often

three, stages. Virtually all biomedical scientists obtain

a doctorate, although exceptions do exist. In addition,

the Institute of Medicine (IOM) estimates that 60 percent of Ph.D. recipients in the basic biomedical sciences

go on to postdoctoral appointments. Postdoctoral appointments are considered by some to be a holding

pool for the Ph.D. population in search of employment. Recently, it has been suggested that postdoctoral

training is also an essential educational experience for

the biomedical scientist, and essential to success as an

independent investigator. I Rapidly developing areas

of research, it is argued, require more intensive and

extensive training.

IOM estimates that of the postdoctoral population

with doctorates from U.S. universities 30 percent are

women and 10 percent hold foreign citizenship.2 Foreign scientists have comprised approximately one-third

of the total population of biomedical postdoctoral appointees since 1975.

The typical biomedical researcher spends 4 years in

undergraduate work, 5 to 7 years in graduate school

to receive the Ph. D., and 2 to 4 years in a postdoctoral appointment. Figure A-1 illustrates the doctoral

training system in the biomedical sciences.

Figure A-2 shows the distribution of primary sources

of support for graduate students enrolled in Ph. D.-

granting biomedical science departments, in 1975 and

1981. In addition to Federal sources of support, biomedical science students rely on teaching assistantships

and self-support. NIH is the major source of support

for postdoctoral training in clinical research, supplying nearly 90 percent of all training funds.3 The National Science Foundation (NSF) provides for approximately 45 predoctoral fellowships per year in the

biomedical sciences.4

It is only in the past 12 years that Federal programs

for biomedical research training have been centralized.

In 1973, the Nixon Administration proposed phasing

out all training grant and fellowship programs of NIH;

the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration (ADAMHA); and the Health Resources Administration (HRA). Congress responded, in 197’4, by

passing the National Research Service Award (NRSA)

Act (Title I, Public Law 93-348) that consolidated previous research training authorities under the Public

Health Service Act. The NRSA Act is the only existing authority under which NIH supports training for

biomedical and behavioral research careers. Threats

to the NRSA program have appeared in every adminIInstitute of Medicine, Personnel Needs and Training for Biomedical and Behavioral Research: 1983 Report (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1983).

‘Ibid., p. 61.

3Thomas E. Malone, “Assuring the Supply of Clinical Investigators” (typescript), National Institutes of Health, 1981.

‘Personal communication with Terence Porter, Science and Engineering Education, National Science Foundation, March 1985.

133

52-647 0 - 85 - 6 (QL 3)
134

Figure A-1 .—Doctoral Training System in the Biomedical Sciences

(Est. size in 1981: 60,900)

NOTE’ Estimates represent the average annual number of Indlvlduals followlng particular pathways during the 1973-81 period No estimates have been made for

Immlgratlon, emigration, or reentry Into the labor force

SOURCE IOM Report on Personnel Needs, 1983.

istration budget between 1978 and 1985 only to be

relieved by Congress.

NIH devotes 10 percent of NRSA appropriations to

special programs in minority access, the Medical Scientists program leading to a combination M. D./Ph.D.

degree, and short-term training programs in medical

schools. Predoctoral training accounts for 35 percent

of the NIH NRSA program. The program’s major emphasis, however, is on postdoctoral training, which

receives 55 percent of NRSA funds in the belief that

changing national needs can be most quickly met by

a large and well-trained postdoctoral pool.

Funds are awarded for predoctoral and postdoctoral

stipends through a system of individual fellowships

and institutional training grants. Institutional training

grants must survive peer review in national competition, and require a substantial commitment on the part

of the institution to share in the maintenance of a training environment. They are limited to those institutions

with the tradition and history of producing highquality investigators and the financial resources to accept the necessary cost-sharing burden. Institutional

training grants provide the program director with a

number of full-time training positions. Individual fellowship awards, on the other hand, allow the applicants to develop a research training project under the

supervision of a sponsor. The individual fellow tends

to be further along in the training process than the institutional fellow (i.e., at the postdoctoral level). In

1985, the average annual stipend for the predoctoral

fellowship is $6,552; the range for postdoctoral awards

is $16,000 to 30,000 per year.

By 1971, NIH training grants and fellowships supported or assisted 37.3 percent of the Nation’s full-time

graduate students in the medical sciences and 1 percent in the life sciences. s Between 1961 and 1972, NIH

programs furnished financial assistance through fellowships and institutional training grants to more than

30,000 graduate (predoctoral) students in the healthrelated disciplines. In addition, more than 27,000

biomedical scientists received postdoctoral support

through NIH programs.6 Since 1972, individual awards

for predoctoral students have been eliminated and the

numbers of predoctorals on training grants have been

reduced. Between fiscal years 1969 and 1980, the number of predoctoral students receiving NIH support

dropped by about 50 percent (see figure A-3). Nevertheless, between 1973 and 1983, more than one out

‘Malone, op. cit.

bNational Research Council, Office of Scientific and Engineering

Personnel, Survey of Earned Doctorates, 1920-81.
135 —

Figure A-2.— Distribution of Primary Sources of

Support for Graduate Students Enrolled in

Ph.D.-Granting Biomedical Science

Departments, 1975 and 1981

1975

1981

NIH

(10%)

N I H

tralneeship

(13%) A l

\

Other A

sources A

(16%)

Other

Federal

(18%)

Ip’ ,

. / ’

.

, .

‘ .

Figure A-3.— Number of Predoctoral Trainees and

Fellows Supported by NIH, Fiscal Years 1967-80

‘ “ ’

o

” ~

9,000

Total predoctorals

3

2

1

67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 [

Fiscal year

SOURCE IOM Re~ort on Career Achlevemenfs, 1984

of every three Ph.D. recipients in health-related fields

had received some NIH training support while in graduate school. 7

Allocation of Resources Between Predoctoral

and Postdoctoral Training

The tradition of postdoctoral training in the biomedical sciences is a long one, possibly because NIH

training programs are the oldest of their kind. The biomedical research system shows great sensitivity to the

supply and demand for individuals in both groups.

The amount of support available for postdoctoral v.

predoctoral training has a definite effect on the sup-

‘Institute of Medicine, Report of a Study; The Career Achievements of NIH Predoctoral Trainees and Fellows (Washington, DC:

National Academy Press, 1984).
136

ply of manpower in the biomedical sciences. Starting

in the early 1970s through 1981, the number of postdoctoral appointments increased 9 percent per year.’

(See figure A-4. ) During this same period, Ph.D. production was fairly constant. Most of the postdoctoral

expansion has occurred in medical schools, which employ 65 percent of the postdoctoral scientists in biomedical sciences. In fact, most of the growth has been

in the 20 largest universities. g

Steady growth in the postdoctoral population may

be a combined result of an increase in the numbers of

new Ph.D. recipients and an increase in the length of

time spent in postdoctoral appointments. IOM believes

that the prolongation of apprenticeship has been a ma-

—.. —

aInstitute of Medicine, Persornel Needs (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1983).

‘National Science Foundation, Academic Science: R&D Funds

1975-1983, Surveys of Science Resource Series (Washington, DC:

U.S. Government Printing Office (annual)).

Figure A-4.— Estimated Growth in the Numbers of

Ph.D. Awards, Academic Postdoctoral Appointments,

and First”Year Postdoctoral Apppointments in the

Biomedical Sciences, 1973-81

1973 1975 1977 1979 1981

Fiscal year

SOURCE IOM Report on Personne/ Needs, 1983

jor factor in the expansion of the postdoctoral pool

in the biomedical sciences. 10 The reason for the extension of postdoctoral training is not clear. A 1976

survey revealed that more than 40 percent of the postdoctoral had extended their appointments because

they were unable to find a desirable position .11 In 1981,

the last year for which data was available, the National

Research Council estimated that the postdoctoral

group constituted 18 percent of the full-time equivalent bioscience research personnel in Ph.D.-granting

universities. *2

A particularly unique system of assessment and

feedback in the area of biomedical and behavioral research personnel needs was established through law

in 1974 when Congress passed the NRSA Act. This

Act mandated that the National Academy of Sciences:

. . . establish (A) the Nation’s overall need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel (B) the subject

areas in which such personnel are needed and the number of such personnel in each such area, and (C) the

kinds and extent of training which should be provided

such personnel. 13

In 197’5, the committee on a study of National Needs

for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel was

formed under the aegis of the Commission on Human

Resources, and later transferred to IOM. During its

first 9 years, the committee published seven reports

projecting the near-term demand for research personnel in biomedical and behavioral research.

The potential influence of this committee is impressive, as it is mandated to make recommendations to

the Federal Government on the size of federally sponsored training programs for biomedical and behavioral

scientists. It also makes recommendations for allocation of traineeships between predoctoral and postdoctoral students. To a large degree, the agencies have

been responsive to these recommendations. The discrepancy between the level of support recommended

by IOM and the actual funding level set by NIH has

been small in recent years. Decisions regarding distribution of traineeships and fellowships, however, are

left to the agency.

In recent reports (1981 and 1983), the committee has

recommended that the agencies change the allocation

of training grants from predominantly predoctoral

training to predominantly postdoctoral. This recommendation was made in response to the growth of the

——-

1OInstitu~of Medicine, Personnel Needs, op. cit., p. 60.

I Ip. E, Coggesha]], et al., “Changing Postdoctoral Career Patterns

for Biomedical Scientists, ” Science, vol. 202, Nov. 3, 1978, pp.

487-493.

12 Nationa] Rewarch council, Postdoctoral Appointments and Disappointments (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1981 ).

I ~U s Congress, Title I of the National Research Act of 1974 (public La”w”93-348), Section 473.
137

predoctoral population that occurred in the 1970s. The

higher levels of Federal support for predoctoral training relative to levels of support for postdoctoral training which occurred in the 1970s contributed, in part,

to the current slight surplus of biomedical Ph.D.s.

Harrison Shun, former Chairman of the Commission on Human Resources of the National Academy

of Sciences, believes that the agencies should use their

ability to shift funds quickly between predoctoral and

postdoctoral support as a means of responding to a

fluctuating job market. Postdoctoral funds can be increased when the supply of new Ph.D.s is high and

demand is low; when supply is insufficient to meet demand, funds can be shifted the other way, towards

more predoctoral support. This “fine-tuning” mechanism can work only if the supply of traineeships is controlled and steady .14

Demographics and Employment Outlooks

for the Biomedical Ph.D.

The number of doctorate degrees awarded annually

to bioscientists has been relatively constant since 1972.

Bioscience baccalaureate degrees have been declining

since 1976, and bioscience graduate enrollments peaked

in 1978. In the long term, the attrition rate from the

active pool of researchers will increase in the 1990s as

the population ages, creating more academic positions.

If graduate school enrollments continue to decline as

the size of the college-age population declines, there

could be a small decline of Ph.D. output in the late

1980s and 1990s. If this decline does, in fact, occur,

there could be a temporary shortage of biomedical research personnel in the next decade.

The key factors influencing potential shortages or

surpluses in this market are Federal funding for biomedical research, and graduate and medical school enrollments. If Congress continues to appropriate a

steady level of funding to NIH, then, in a sense, the

demand is set. Should the Federal Government suddenly increase or decrease its level of research support

in the biomedical sciences, shortages or surpluses could

occur.

The total biomedical Ph.D. labor force approached

70,000 in 1981. Half of these individuals were employed in academic institutions whose population has

been growing at a rate of 4 percent per year. Employment in the industrial sector has been growing at a rate

of 8.5 percent and self-employment at a rate of 24.7

percent (see table A-1 ).

Next to academia, the industrial sector is the second largest employer of biomedical scientists. Most

14 Harrison Shun, “The Ph.D. Employment Cycle—Damping the

Swings, ” The National Research Council in 1978: Current Issues

and Stucfies (Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences, 1978),

pp. 149-163.

biomedical Ph.D.s in industry are employed by chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturers. Recently, the

biotechnology industry has shown rapid growth, and

it is possible that some areas of commercial biotechnology may experience temporary shortages, as investigators attempt to catch up with the latest developments in a new field. A collaborative survey of

biotechnology firms conducted by IOM and the Office of Technology Assessment in 1983 revealed that

one-third of the respondents had experienced shortages in one or more specialties. The three specialties

most often cited were bioprocess engineering, recombinant DNA molecular genetics, and gene synthesis. ’5

Emerging fields will experience temporary shortages

of trained personnel as new research opportunities become available. It is the view of some that the postdoctoral pool will be the critical element in ensuring

an efficient and timely transition to steady-state supply, for postdoctoral are the most skilled in research

methods and problem-solving and can most easily

adapt to new concepts and new tools.

Clinical Biomedical Research

Personnel [M.D.s]

The application of scientific advances to maintain

good health and prevent and treat disease is the goal

of clinical, as opposed to basic biomedical research.

For the purposes of this report, clinical investigation

includes research on: 1) patients or samples derived

from patients as part of a study of the causes, mechanisms, diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and control

of disease; or 2) research on animals by scientists identifiable as clinical investigators on the basis of other

work .

l6

In general, clinical investigation requires the participation of an investigator trained in the clinical sciences

and possessing a degree in medicine (M. D., D. V. M.,

D. D. M., D.O. ). It is usually conducted by physicianinvestigators working in a clinical department of a

medical school or in a clinical division of an institute.

In general, clinical research is applied research, intended to ameliorate disease in the near term. Traditionally, it is the clinical researcher who applies the

scientific and technological skills acquired through

basic research to the vital tasks of medicine.

Both basic and clinical biomedical research personnel are critical to the biomedical research endeavor because of the skills and perspectives they bring to their

“U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, Commercial

Biotechnology: An International Analysis (Washington, DC: U.S.

Government Printing Office, January 1984).

lbThiS definition is the One adopted by the Committee on National

Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel of the Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences.
138

Table A-1 .—Current Trends in Supply/Demand Indicators for Biomedical Science Ph.D.s

Growth rate Latest “

from 1975 to annual

1980 198 1 latest year change

Average annual

change from 1975 to

latest year

54

Fiscal year

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 —

1. Supply indicators (new entrants):

a PH. D. production

b Percent of Ph. D s without specific

employment prospects at time of

graduation

c Postdoctoral appointments

d B A degrees awarded

3515 3.578 3,465 3,516 3644 3823 3,838 1. 5%

–2 4 %

6 9%

–3 2 %

3 .1%

3 8%

4 8%

2 .2%

5 3%

4.3%

7.0%

3 0%

6 2%

9 3%

14 .3%

6 3%

n/a

1 6%

2.9%

– 1 9%

– O 8%

o 4%

14 .6%

5 .O%a

–8 .O%

–o 9%

4 .2%

–O 8%

6 3%

5 1%

4 .1%

8 5%

3 2%

1 3%

6090

24 7%

4 .1%

9 .7%

– 2070

2 o%

3 o%

2 5%

6 4%

5,484

50,493

6 3~o

n/a

52,642

7 .2% 6 O% 5 .2%

6,403 n/a 7419

51,783 49,701 47717

4.8% 5.5%

n[a 8,185

45106 41,476

–o 2%

450

– 1,503

2. Demand indicators (R&D funding):

a National expenditures for healthrelated R&D ( 1972$ bill )

b Biomedical science R&D

expenditures m colleges and

universities ( 1972 $, bill )

c NIH research grant expenditures

(1972 $, bill )

d Ph. D. faculty/student ratiob

3. Labor force:a

a Total

b Academic (excluding

postdoctorates)

c Business

d Government

e Hospitals/clinics

t Nonprofit

g Self-employed

h Other (Including postdoctorates)c

I Unemployed and seeking

$370 $3.81 $397 $4.13 $431 $4.48 $444 $0123

$119 $126 $127 $1.34 $135 $1.43 $149 $005

$005

0002

$0.944

n/a

$100 $1.06 $1 17

C. 056 n/a O 063

S1. 20 $1 19

0067 n/a

( est. )

n/a 69076

$0.897

0058

40,698 55167 n/a 62590 5063

1 360

552

147

141

144

171

496

52

n/a

28.339

6,645

4,522

1,950

1,221

836

6,667

518

30,390

6,918

4,567

2,296

1,544

864

8.642

810

33,687

8,461

5,075

2,272

1. 854

1 197

8,899

690

n/a 36,497

n/a 9,957

n/a 5,406

n/a 2,798

n/a 2083

n/a 1860

n/a 9.644

n/a 831

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

4. Biomedical enrollments:

a Graduate

b Medical and dental schools

c Estimated undergraduate

d Total biomedical graduate and

undergraduate enrollment

39.322

77,011

439,946

39,260 43,787 43,378

79,279 81,934 84,761

425,863 406,373 374,869

42969 42,117

86502 88,254

386,236 n/a

38314

74,222

424.539

634

2,339

-7661

537,075 556,279 544,402 532,094 503,008 515707 n/a -4274

aslnce labor force data are nof available for 1980 latest annual change represents average growth rate from 1979.81

bRallo of academically employed ph D ~ t. a 4.year Weighted average of total graduate and undergraduateen(o[lmer,[s(Wsl where (wS), = 1 /6(S1 + 2$ _ , + 2S, _ ? + S1 3)

cAlso Includes FFRDC laboratories

dEs[lma!ed by the formula u, = (Al +2,BI + *)C, where u, = b,~medlcal science “fl~e(grad@e enrollrnefll (n year I Al + ~ = OIUIIIC~,C~l~CEWP IJaccalaurale degrees awaraed In year I + 2 (excludlng

health professions} B - z = Iolal baccalaureate degrees awa,ded [n year I + 2 C, = total undergraduate degree-c reoll enrollment In year I (excludlng hrst professlonalj

SOURCE Instlfute of Medlcme Persorme/ Needs Jrrd Tramg (or 13/orned~ca/ and 8e/rawora/ Research ~983 p 52

work, However, the training of, supply of, and demand for clinical investigators present different issues

than those of basic biomedical research personnel.

Recruiting and Retaining Physicians for

Research Careers

It is the view of many in the medical profession that

the clinical investigator is the critical link between the

laboratory bench and bedside, While the basic biomedical scientist is well versed in the processes and intricacies of individual biological subsystems, and may

have better training in research methods and techniques, it is the clinician who sees the whole system

and recognizes the clinical manifestations of the underlying disease process. Thus, research initiated by

physician-investigators tends to be more healthrelated, in general, than that of Ph.D. biomedical

scientists,

In recent years, there has been concern that the

country is facing an insufficient supply of well-trained

physician-researchers, as fewer medical school graduates enter research careers and apply for research

funds. This prospect is of concern because of the expense of allowing a prolonged lag time between the

acquisition of knowledge and technological skills, and

their application to medical care.

Currently, NIH supports almost 90 percent of all

postdoctoral training in clinical research. The number

of physicians seeking research training has declined on

average by more than 6 percent per year since 1975

while the number of medical school graduates has risen

from 12,716 in 1975, to 16,347 in 1985.1718 According to NIH, 47 percent of 5,680 individuals seeking

postdoctoral research training in 1975 were holders of

clinical degrees. By 1980, only 36 percent of 5,321 individuals seeking postdoctoral training held clinical

degrees. *9 NIH cites several possible reasons for the

~TInstitute of Medicine, Personal Needs, oP. cit.

18Anne E. Crow]ey, et al., “undergraduate Medical Education, ”

Journal of the American Meai”cal Association, vol. 254, No. 12, Sept.

27, 1985, pp. 1565-1572.

“Thomas E. Malone, “Report on Recruiting and Retaining Physicians for Research Careers” (typescript), National Institutes of

Health, 1983.
decline in the number of physicians seeking research

training. Young physicians may be discouraged from

entering research careers because of the increasing difficulty of staying current in two fields (clinical and research). There may be too little exposure to research

in medical school because of the competing demands

of an increasingly overloaded curriculum. Young physicians, incurring a high degree of indebtedness after

medical school, may not be willing to face the traditionally lower pay of research positions versus

practice.

At the same time that interest in research seems to

be declining among medical students, demand for

faculty in the clinical departments of medicine remains

strong, possibly because of the increase in professional

fee income as a growing source of revenue. Fishman

and Jolly have noted that the expansion in the number of medical schools over the past 30 years led to

a greater than 25-fold increase in the full-time clinical

faculty at American medical centers.20 As of 1982,

IOM reported that the market opportunities for clinical investigators continued to be favorable: Medical

school faculties are still growing and providing places

for young physician-investigators interested in research

careers. 2 1

However, after more than 30 years of continuous

growth, there appears to be a decline in medical school

enrollments that could continue as the college-age population declines. These declining enrollments could potentially reduce the demand for physician-investigators

at medical schools, the principal employers of NIHsponsored clinical researchers. Thus, although there

is a recognized and widespread realization that the

physician plays a critical role in clinical investigation,

and current demand is fairly high, opportunities for

this population could diminish.

Another factor that affects the demand for physician investigators relates to the sources of revenue for

medical schools. The abundance of Federal support for

biomedical research since World War II created a continuous demand for trained biomedical research personnel, and provided a sizable source of income for

medical schools with active researchers on their faculties.

Although research funds are intended primarily for

the conduct of research, they also enable medical

schools to expand the size of their faculties, and support graduate students, research assistants, and fellows. Federal research support grew from 11 percent

of medical school income in 1947 to nearly 30 percent

in 1969. 22 However, in recent years, this proportion

has diminished, as medical schools rely increasingly

on other sources of support. In 1983-84, Federal re20A. P. Fishman anci H. Paul Jolly, “Ph. D.rs in Clinical Departmerits, ” The Ph},siologist, vol. 24, 1981, pp. 17-21.

“Institute of Medicine r Personal Needs, Op. cit.

2’National Academy ot Sciences, Institute of Medicine, Costs of

Eiiucation in Health Professions (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1974 ).

139

search funds comprised only 14.4 percent of medical

schools’ restricted revenues. 23 The uncertainty Of relying on competitive grants as a source of revenue, combined with a larger population in competition for

limited funds has led medical schools to seek more

reliable and controllable sources of revenue. Funds

from professional fee income have grown at an annual

rate of 25 percent between 1968 and 1981.24 The contribution of professional fee income to medical school

revenues is now 32 percent of total funds as compared

to 12.2 percent in 1970-71. 25 More recently, research

funds have become available from nongovernmental

sources. As Jolly and his colleagues note in their 1985

report on medical school finances:26

The growth of private, nongovernmental funding for

health research and development is a phenomenon of

rather recent origin, It may owe a part of its growth

to the investment tax credits legislated in the early 1980s

for increases in research and development by industry

and the rapid expansion of research investment by the

pharmaceutical industry related to rDNA technology,

a part of which involves medical school performers.

Effectiveness of Federal Programs

In 1984, IOM, in consultation with NIH, examined

the extent to which NIH-supported graduate students

have been successful in their pursuit of careers in biomedical research.27 They reported that former NIH

predoctorals have outperformed individuals receiving

no direct NIH support in terms of several measures.

More than two-thirds of the NIH-supported group

completed their doctorates compared to less than 50

percent of those receiving no support. In addition, the

NIH group were more likely to have received NIH

postdoctoral support and become involved at later

stages in their careers in NIH-sponsored activities.

They were more likely to have applied for and received

NIH research grants. Last, former NIH trainees have

written more articles and have received more citations

than their biomedical colleagues who received no

support.

Establishing cause and effect in any program evaluation is difficult. The success of the NIH-supported

group may be due to the assistance they received, but

it might also be due to the higher levels of motivation

and intelligence which caused them to be selected in

the first place. If so, there was a selection bias from

the start and this group might have achieved the various accomplishments without Federal support. Whether

.-. .-

“H. Paul Jolly, et al., “U.S. Medical School Finances, ” lourrwl

of the American Medical Association, VOI. 254, No, 12, Sept. 27,

1985, pp. 1573-1581.

“Institute of Medicine, Personal Needs, op. cit.

“H. Paul Jolly, et al., “U.S. hledical School Finances, ” lourndl

of the American ,$ledical Association, vo]. 252, No. 12, Sept. 28,

1984, pp. 1533-1541.

‘“1oIIY, et al., 1985, op. cit., p. 1577.

“Institute ot Medicine, Career Achie~rements, op. clt., 1984.
140

they would have been able to complete the Ph.D. without Federal financial assistance is the critical question.

It appears that the likelihood of completion has, in

fact, increased.

Summary

Consistent Federal support for biomedical research

in terms of funding of research and training has produced both a substantial supply and demand for investigators. This has had a largely positive effect. It

has created a steady-state system in which there have

been no major surpluses or shortages of biomedical

personnel, However, it is a large system that would

be difficult to reduce in significant ways without major dislocations. Unlike many fields of science, there

is an institutional feedback mechanism between NIH

and IOM that ensures a periodic assessment of the status of biomedical research personnel. This represents,

to some extent, informed decisionmaking in the implementation of research training programs. The current number of trainees is quite close to the number

recommended by the IOM committee,

Virtually all biomedical investigators have completed training to the doctoral level. Nearly 60 percent of them go on to postdoctoral appointments, compared to 28 percent of the Ph.D. cohort in science and

engineering in the aggregate. Allocation of Federal support to either predoctoral training or postdoctoral

training is a method of fine-tuning that can potentially

be used to control the supply of biomedical investigators. This mechanism is exploited only in the biomedical sciences.

There appears to be no short-term shortage of basic

biomedical scientists, although there may be some temporary shortages of special personnel in biotechnology. As industry innovates in biotechnology, there will

be temporary shortages of highly specialized biomedical research personnel, such as bioprocess engineers,

molecular geneticists, and genetic engineers. In some

areas of biomedical science, there may be a surplus

of trained Ph.D. scientists. While some Ph.D. biomedical scientists may currently be having problems in obtaining academic appointments, there is evidence that

the rate of growth in industrial employment and selfemployment may partially compensate for the surplus.

Academic employment has been increasing by more

than 4 percent per year, industrial employment is increasing by 8 percent, and self-employment is growing the fastest, at nearly 25 percent. While the postdoctoral appointment has increasingly compensated

for the lack of academic appointments, it is a shortterm solution to the academic surplus that requires

more extensive examination. Postdoctoral appointees,

do, however, conduct significant and important research in U.S. research institutions.

There is, however, evidence that the Nation is facing a potential shortage of clinical investigators, as

fewer physicians pursue research careers. As fewer

physicians enter into research careers, the potential for

a widening gap between the direction of basic biomedical research and the treatment of recognized disease

states becomes greater. NIH has implemented fellowship programs to encourage medical students and new

physicians to pursue research careers.

Table A.2.—Federal Manpower Legislation Pertaining

to Biomedical and Medical Personnel

1930

1937

1944

1963

1965

1965

1966

1968

1971

1972

1974

1976

1981

Ransdell Act: created the National Institutes of Health.

Amendments to the Ransdell Act: established the National Cancer Institute which established the first Federal biomedical research program.

Amendments to the Public Health Service Act: grants

authority to NIH for extramural research programs.

Hea/th Professionals Education Assistance Act: established matching grants to assist in the construction of

teaching facilities for schools of medicine and health

professions, in response to the aggregate physician

supply concern. Initiated a student loan program.

Medicare/Medicaid: created new demand for medical

care, and further pushed the drive for increased biomedical research.

Amendments to Health Professionals Education Assistance Act: extended the construction and student

loan provisions of original act. Established grants to

health professions schools that increase enrollments

(cavitation).

Allied Health Professionals Personnel Training Act:

authorized establishment of a health professions student loan revolving fund.

Health Manpower Act: extended the construction, basic

and special improvement grants program, student

loans, and scholarship programs. Institutional grants

determined on a cavitation basis.

Comprehensive Health Manpower Training Act: established four areas of authorization—construct ion grants

for teaching and research facilities, cavitation grants

with an emphasis on certain curricular components,

student assistance, and computer technology health

care demonstration programs.

Emergency Health Personnel Act Amendments: Public Health Service and National Health Service Corps

Scholarships were established with awards contingent

on agreement to serve in a shortage area.

National Research Service Award Act: abolished and

consolidated previous research training authorities under the Public Health Service Act.

Amendments to the Comprehensive Health Manpower Training Act: cavitation contingent on federally determined proportion of residencies in primary care.

Omnibus Reconciliation Act: budget cuts in education

in the health professions, elimination of cavitation

grants.

SOURCE Office of Technology Assessment
Appendix B

Responses to an OTA Survey on

Information Needs Related to Minorities

in Science and Engineering

The literature on the factors that affect minority participation in science and engineering is not nearly so

well developed as that for women. To supplement the

few comprehensive studies on this subject to date,

OTA sent a questionnaire on “information needs related to minorities in science and engineering” to 40

recognized experts in the field. Respondents were asked

to present their views as to the causes of and remedies

for problems in minority participation in science and

engineering; the effectiveness of existing intervention

programs to promote such participation; and the need

for further research, additional information, and policy actions. Responses received from 18 individuals are

summarized below, by question.

1. What do you believe to be the principal factors that

influence minorities’ decisions to participate and continue in science and engineering careers? Are there special factors that discourage minorities from participating?

The negative factors most commonly mentioned by

respondents were: .

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

lack of academic preparedness in elementary and

secondary school (literacy and necessary science

and mathematics courses);

lack of role models, mentors and teacher encouragement;

lack of parental support and encouragement;

lack of peer support;

inadequate career and academic counseling;

lack of confidence and perception of self;

financial strains; and

lack of awareness of career opportunities.

Other negative factors included: -

●

●

●

●

●

●

societal emphasis on sports, rock stars, and

“quickie” models of success rather than a slow and

sequential model;

loss of interest or motivation;

poor study habits;

lower educational and financial background

(socioeconomic class standing);

dry unimaginative teaching;

lack of institutional commitment to minority

students:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

declining number of qualified teachers and lack

of in-service training opportunities for teachers;

increasing remedial classes;

identity problems (one respondent believes this

is especially so for American Indians);

lack of summer jobs in science/engineering;

lack of cultural and society support for science;

type and environment of undergraduate institution;

lack of effective instructional programs to promote cultural awareness and development of

bilingual skills (especially Chicano, Puerto Rican,

and American Indian); and

lack of transitional instructional programs for students with limited English language skills.

Positive factors for all minorities are:

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

●

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competence in the English language;

early enrollment in math and science courses;

continuation of math and science sequence in secondary school;

basic interest in science and math;

intervention programs;

encouragement and support from mentors, family, and teachers;

role models;

positive input from peer group with high expectations;

availability of financial resources;

self-discipline;

good study habits;

continued success;

challenge;

good environment;

intellectual gratification;

opportunity to obtain research experience;

second-generation college student (for blacks};

awareness of careers and opportunities in science

and engineering;

starting salaries and possibilities for promotion;

and

one respondent said the perception of a science

or math career as an avenue for “escape” from

an undesirable environment.

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2. Are there major gaps in information and understanding relative to the factors which influence minority participation in science and engineering? If so,

please identify.

A majority of the respondents felt that more information is needed on the experiences of minority students who are successfully participating in science and

engineering. No major study exists on how graduates

succeed in completing science and engineering programs. Why not study those who made it, let them

explain why, how, and where they came from before

they completed a science or engineering degree? Study

every member of several black, Hispanic, and American Indian science and engineering societies to determine what they have in common, and what their

differences are,

We do not understand the relative influence of the

various factors that affect the participation of different minority groups in science and engineering. Little

attention has been given to differences in cognitive

styles that might exist for different minority groups.

Many pieces of data, otherwise “available,” are not

broken down by race and by sex, so that it is difficult

to make full use of collected information.

Successful programs have not been evaluated to determine how they work, why they work, and what

they have produced. Further research is required to

develop new strategies and programs that will encourage minority students to pursue careers in science

and engineering,

3. What new research initiatives would you recommend to help provide the needed information or understanding relative to the factors influencing minority participation in science and engineering?

One of the most frequently cited recommendations

was the need to improve the quality of mathematics

and science programs at the pre-college level, including improving basic skills. Improving the quality of

teaching was also highly recommended, and a need

was expressed for approaches that would motivate, update, and retrain inner-city school teachers. Guidance

counselors should be retrained and attuned to current

opportunities in science and math.

Research is needed on the outcomes of programs

specifically designed to recruit and maintain minorities in science and engineering. We know relatively

little about which programs have succeeded and why.

Previously supported programs that have had a strong

positive educational impact should be examined for

possible reinstitution.

Financial aid is still crucial to enable minorities to

attend and remain in college.

There is a need to track students through the educational pipeline; students who show an aptitude for

science and mathematics as early as junior high school.

Participants in pre-college special programs should be

tracked for 10 years after high school graduation to

determine the relationship between program participation and academic performance, retention in college

and career choice. The relationship between career

aspirations of minorities between grades K and 12 and

their decision to participate in science and mathematics

education should be examined.

Research on the effect of role models and early exposure to science on career choice is needed.

Current information should be made available, broken down by race and sex. More efforts are needed

to sort out the relative weight of the different barriers

to minorities’ participation in science and engineering.

The whole web of cultural and social values should

be examined in order to understand why Asians and

Asian Americans as a group have successfully entered

quantitatively based fields in disproportionately large

numbers relative to their representation in the population, in spite of numerous barriers. We need to identify factors at work in the case of individual non-Asian

minorities, who successfully enter science and engineering fields.

One respondent suggested the following additional

studies: The family and educational backgrounds, and

career pattern and experiences of minority scientists

and engineers. Quantitative studies of high school students experiences in mathematics and science courses.

The attitudes of teachers and parents regarding appropriate candidates for science/engineering. A study of

guidance counselors’ familiarity with opportunities for

blacks in science and engineering, More systematic

evaluation of intervention programs. A study of the

impact of the availability of financial aid on career

decisionmaking. A study of high school students’ career awareness with respect to opportunities in science/

engineering.

As a final note, three respondents believed no new

research was necessary. What is needed is action.

4. In the recent past, a variety of programs and policies have been initiated, on the Federal, State, local,

and institutional level, to promote minority participation in science and engineering. How effective have

the programs and policies with which you are most

familiar been in achieving their goals? Can you cite

specific examples of success or failure?

Three programs were cited most often as successes:

The Mathematics, Engineering, Science Achievement

(MESA) program of the Lawrence Hall of Sciences in

Berkeley, CA; the Philadelphia Regional Introduction

for Minorities in Engineering (PRIME) program; and

the Resource Centers for Science and Engineering. The

Atlanta University Resource Center’s Summer Science

Enrichment Program was also mentioned. Only a few
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of the respondents had actual knowledge of the programs; most relied on hearsay.

In terms of actual experiences one respondent stated,

I created the first successful program to bring blacks

into engineering in circa 1965-1968 at Oakland University, Rochester, Michigan. In 197’3 I began a program

to bring women into Engineering at the University of

Virginia. We went from zero to the highest percentage

of women in the Nation in five years.

Another respondent reported first-hand knowlege

of the following minority programs sponsored by Federal agencies: Minority Research Initiation (MRI), Research Initiation in Minority Institutions (RIMI), Minority Biomedical Research Support (MBRS), Minority

Access to Research Career (MARC), Research Center

for Science and Engineering (RCSE), and the Minority Institutions Science Improvement Program (MISIP).

Of the preceding programs, only the Resource Centers

were conceived and planned to be comprehensive in

approach. Through the respondent’s experience with

the Puerto Rico Resource Center, the respondent concluded that the only effective way to upgrade science

education for minorities was to follow a holistic approach in which resources are optimized to address

different stages of the educational process. Most other

programs tend to be targeted, rather narrow, and

limited in scope.

The same respondent stated that the MBRS and

MARC programs have a strong overlap in goals, but

nonetheless have been extremely successful in encouraging and orienting students toward biomedical

research careers. The National Science Foundation

(NSF) should be encouraged to consider the possibility of creating equivalent programs in the physical

sciences, mathematics, and engineering. The MRI at

NSF has been particularly successful in starting young

minority scientists in their research careers. Competition for research funds is so keen that without the MRI

programs, many minority scientists might not be able

to establish themselves as regular faculty members in

research institutions. Lastly, the RIMI program has

been crucial in providing infrastructure for research

in minority institutions although the funds available

are not sufficient to remedy the seriousness of the

problem.

Other exemplary programs cited were: Project Act

101 (Drexel University), Project Yes (University of the

District of Columbia), Southeastern Consortium for

Minorities in Engineering (SECME), A Better Chance,

Inc. of Boston, National Action Council for Minorities in Engineering (NACME), Phillips Academy, and

the Andover-Dartmouth Urban Institute intensive 4-

week summer mathematics program for secondary

school teachers.

The most successful programs have been those with

clearly defined goals; stable financial support and stable staffing; a range of support services; and strong

ties to parents, professional societies, the local schools,

and other community groups.

One respondent stated it this way: Most of the longestablished programs are quite successful, but most

suffer from inadequate long-term funding, inadequate

long-term assessment, little funding for transfer of successful models, and the need to prove themselves over

and over again. The Resource Centers were a successful program at NSF, but they are not being supported

in 1985 because of the lack of long-term Federal commitment. The decision to discontinue the program was

made independent of the fact that it works.

Another expressed disapproval:

Most of the Federal, State, or local programs have

not been the most effective use of resources. Programs

have disappeared at the end of funding. Resources

duplicated existing programs. California’s investment

in MESA and Washington’s in the minority engineering effort, are examples of how to build results-oriented,

long-term programs that have multi-sector support and

work with educational institutions for the benefit of

parents. Many of the old NSF programs were effective

in training teachers, but they are ended.

5. What have we learned from these programs and policies; what specific factors appear to account for differences in relative effectiveness?

Evidence obtained to date from the many intervention programs indicates that women and minority students will do as well as white males when provided

with quality education and support for their goals. The

early identification of minority students with an aptitude for mathematics and science, followed by a longterm enrichment and motivation program, has been

shown to be an effective approach.

Specific factors cited by one respondent as contributing to the success of such programs were:

● an effective liaison between primary and secondary educational systems and higher education;

● parental awareness and participation;

● length of enrollment in the pre-college program;

• adequate resources; and

• a career development component.

Activities with a large motivational content, where

students are exposed to role models and to nontraditional ways of teaching science, were said to have a

profound and permanent effect in encouraging students to continue careers in science. Special programs

to train kindergarten to sixth grade teachers in the presentation and teaching of mathematical and scientific

concepts, and the development of quantitative skills

and scientific methods were cited as crucial if minor-
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ity students are to be oriented toward science and

mathematics programs in large numbers. Respondents

stressed the importance of continuity in minority programs. They must be comprehensive and maintained

over a sustained period of time.

One respondent stated that the principal lesson

learned from the Resource Centers was that a systems’

approach is crucial to establish a comprehensive and

coherent plan to develop minority institutions into research centers and increase the number of students who

go on to become research scientists and engineers.

Other factors cited were:

● hands on experience;

● strong directors and able, interested staff;

• opportunities for in-school and out-of-school

learning experiences;

● community support;

• development of a peer support sytems;

● evaluation;

● long-term follow up; and

● careful data collection, and mainstreaming.

6. What additional information is needed to better understand the causes of success and failure in programs

and policies that promote minority participation in

science and engineering?

Most of the respondents felt that program evaluation is the most needed supplement to existing information. This includes evaluation of intervention

programs and policies for promoting minority participation in science and engineering; all pre-college engineering, mathematics, and science programs; and curricula of primary and secondary systems attended by

minorities compared to those attended by majority students.

Further study and support of the following was also

suggested: The current and future role of predominantly minority institutions in the preparation of students for quantitative fields, the presence and role of

minorities in arenas where major science policy issues

and decisions are being made, successful efforts at the

undergraduate level to recruit and retain minority students in quantitative fields, specific ways to effectively

communicate with the minority community about the

importance of science and its applications in their lives,

and the availability of computers to minority students

and the ways in which they are being instructed to use

them.

Three of the respondents felt that no more information is needed, only action; the implementation of recognized successful programs in education.

7. What actions, if any, would you recommend Congress take to promote minority participation in science

and engineering, or to develop a better understanding of the factors that influence minority participation?

Most of the actions recommended for congressional

consideration fell into three main categories: The establishment and support of special programs for minorities in science and mathematics, strengthening the

quality of mathematics and science education in general, and financial support for minority students.

Some of the types of programs cited as deserving

of support were: programs to promote curriculum development in mathematics and science for minority

students at the primary and secondary school level;

programs that provide elementary and high school students with hands on exposure to science and engineering; programs that encourage minority scientists and

upper level minority science students to participate in

minority science education; community-based programs that utilize outside expertise, but maintain control within local schools; programs aimed at increasing the number of students completing Algebra 1 and

Biology 1 by the 9th grade, and the number of students taking and completing 3 or 4 years of mathematics, science, and English by the time they receive

their high school diploma; and the development of

magnet schools for the education of students with a

special interest in science. It was recommended that

the Government provide summer enrichment programs for minority students with talent and interest

in science and mathematics, and reestablish the Resource Centers program.

Associated with program support was the need to

improve instruction in science and engineering in general. Pre-college science and mathematics instruction

in urban schools needs to be improved with an emphasis on involving both sexes. There should be increased funding for research on effective teaching and

learning of mathematical and scientific concepts and

skills, with a reasonable proportion set aside to study

populations at risk for low achievement on the fundamental cognitive and conceptual level. We should

continue informing the very young of opportunities

in science and engineering, and educating the educators. Finally mathematics and science education in general should be strengthened through special funding

for equipment and teacher training.

Financial support for minority students was suggested via various means: Establishment of “congressional scholars in science and technology” (a comprehensive 3- or 4-year program of undergraduate
support, research, and work experience to ensure that

talented minority students will not be lost to science

and engineering because they are unable to pay the

cost of first-rate college training in these fields), Twoyear scholarships could be awarded to a group of

minority high school juniors, and to a comparable

number of minority college juniors, who have demonstrated significant interest in and potential for successfully pursuing science or mathematics study at the

next educational level. (Consideration might be given

to targeting some of the proposed awards to students

interested in pursuing science/mathematics teaching

careers. ) Financial support to students could be increased, especially support not involving loans. Nointerest or low-interest college loans could be provided

to students with strong mathematics and science backgrounds who agree to teach mathematics and science

courses in economically disadvantaged communities.

A federally guaranteed, low interest loan program

could be established and specifically designated for minorities who indicate an interest in becoming scientists

or engineers.

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—

Some respondents recommended an examination of

the Department of Education and NSF programs for

minorities to determine their effectiveness, and the

need for additional financial support. Continuity of

successful minority programs should be the guiding

factor in the determination of funding by Congress for

minority programs, in their view. Such programs

should be “mainstreamed” into the regular educational

process, where possible.

A number of respondents called for a centralized

organization to deal with the problems of minorities

in science and mathematics. A national conference or

hearing could be convened on minority participation

in science and engineering. A commission could be

established, composed of scientists and educators from

the underrepresented groups as well as representatives

from employers affected by the underrepresentation

(e.g., universities, industry, national labs). A national

office is needed, according to some respondents, to facilitate and conduct activities designed to increase minority participation in science and mathematics.

o