**MACEDONIA�S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS********October 18 and November 1, 1998********A Report Prepared by the Staff of the Commission onSecurity and Cooperation in Europe********SUMMARY**
When, on October 18, the citizens of Macedonia voted for a new parliament,they not only had choices between extremes but also among several moderatecandidates. The more open environment reflected growing political maturityin a country beset by instability�both internal and external�since becomingan independent state in 1991. 

Approximately 1,200 people representing political parties, electoralcoalitions and independent candidates competed for the 120 seats in theMacedonian Assembly. Eighty-five of those seats were contested on a majoritybasis in districts, while the remaining 35 seats were determined by proportionalvoting for party, coalition and independent lists across the country. Themixed system represents an agreement between the ruling and oppositionparties to abandon a solely majority-based system viewed as favoring thosein power. The newly established electoral districts were more consistentdemographically, although ethnic Albanians continued to allege that theywere still left somewhat under-represented. 

The ruling Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), the successorto the former League of Communists, ran essentially on its own in the elections.The main challenge to the SDSM came from an unlikely coalition of the nationalistInternal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for MacedonianUnity (VMRO-DPMNE), named after the 19thcentury extremist Macedonian liberation group, and the newly formed andpolitically liberal Democratic Alliance (DA). A secondary challenger wasthe Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the product of a recent merger of twomoderate political parties. The election picture was complicated by thecontinued existence of a practically separate polity in Macedonia, theAlbanian community which constitutes at least 23 percent of the country'spopulation and has its own political parties. For these elections, however,moderates in the Macedonian Government formed a coalition with more nationalisticAlbanian parties. 

The campaign environment was open and competitive, with fewer governmentcontrols on access to information than before. In addition, election administrationwas more transparent, with opposition parties able to participate morefully. Given the close results of the first round, campaigning in districtswith second-round voting was notably more negative and tense. In addition,there were some problems with the timely release of results, raising suspicionsabout the ruling parties willingness to fully respect the outcome. Problemslike family- or group-voting were evident, but there were few signs ofintentional manipulation during the voting. In the second round, however,there were some reports of party representatives checking voter registrationcards outside polling stations, as well as more ominous proxy voting practices.

The VMRO-DPMNE/DA coalition emerged victorious, and the ruling SDSMconceded defeat. President Kiro Gligorov, whose office will be contestedin 1999, selected VMRO-DPMNE head Ljupco Georgievski to form a new government.Georgievski has continued the SDSM's practice of inviting Albanian partiesto join the government, despite not needing these parties to form a government.Neither a calm change of government nor an effort to be inclusive are characteristicof politics in former Yugoslav republics, and these signs of politicalstability will hopefully enable Macedonia to steer clear of ethnic conflicton its own territory at a time when the North Atlantic Treaty Organization(NATO) is deploying an extraction force to assist unarmed civilian monitorsin conflict-ridden Kosovo to the north. 
**BACKGROUND**
The Republic of Macedonia lies in the south-central region of the Balkanpeninsula, bordered by Bulgaria, Greece, Albania and the new Yugoslav federation,specifically Kosovo and Serbia proper. The republic lies within the geographicand historic region known also as Macedonia. This region was at the centerof Balkan wars as the Ottoman Empire retreated from Europe at the beginningof the 20th century and was divided between Greece, Serbia andBulgaria.1 Serbia's holding was incorporatedinto the Yugoslav state first established in 1918, and was given the statusof a republic in communist Yugoslavia following World War II. During thisperiod, Macedonia benefitted greatly from the official recognition of theMacedonian people as a distinct people, or "nation", as wellas from the enormous economic support received through Yugoslavia's federalauthorities. As a result, Macedonians, like Bosniacs, became the leadingsupporters of a genuine Yugoslav federation, and representatives of Macedonia,along with those of Bosnia-Herzegovina, made the last attempts to maintainsuch a federation in early 1991.2

When Yugoslavia did violently disintegrate in the second half of 1991,Macedonia chose to assert its own independence rather than remain in atruncated Yugoslav state likely to be dominated by Serbia without the counterbalancinginfluences of Croatia and Slovenia. There was little political transformationbeforehand, as the republic's first multi-party elections were held inNovember 1990, and left the ruling League of Communists�renamed the SocialDemocratic Union (SDSM)�in power, although the nationalist Internal MacedonianRevolutionary Organization (VMRO) won the most seats.3However, the introduction of multi-party politics and a greater abilityto express independent views brought with it growing ethnic tensions. Approximately23 percent of Macedonia's population is ethnically Albanian, although Albanianleaders assert their share to be between 30 and 40 percent. While the situationfor this population had not been as oppressive as for their brethren inKosovo, it had been difficult at times during the communist period, andthere was now the new phenomenon of Macedonian nationalism. Moreover, separationfrom the remainder of Yugoslavia threatened the strong links MacedonianAlbanians had with Kosovo, where many had their origins, education, familyor friends. In addition to the Albanian population, 4 percent of the populationis ethnically Turk, 2 percent Roma and 2 percent Serb. There are also smallergroups, including Vlachs, "Egyptians" and Muslim Slavs (Torbeshi).

While internal problems loomed large, in reality the greatest threatsto the new Macedonian state were external. First, the rise of nationalismthroughout the region aroused intense emotions over the so-called "MacedonianQuestion". While neither Bulgaria nor Greece made any territorialclaims on the republic, both viewed its very existence as a threat to theirown stability. Bulgaria recognized the state but not the existence of adistinct Macedonian people, for fear that this would give credibility tothe growing number of individuals within Bulgaria claiming Macedonian ethnicity.Greece additionally felt vulnerable on this point, having denied the existenceof a largely assimilated ethnic Macedonian population within its borders,but memories of the Greek civil war of 1947 and the larger role which heritageplays in Greek society prompted the Greek Government to impose a tradeblockade and block European Union recognition of the fledgling state untilthe word "Macedonia"�which Greece claimed exclusively for itsown region�was deleted from its name and until changes were made to Macedonia'sflag and constitution, which were perceived as supporting territorial claimson Greece. This imbroglio effectively isolated Macedonia internationallyuntil 1995, when an interim agreement brokered by the United States producedcompromises which allowed for Greece and Macedonia to establish formalrelations. Among the changes was the temporary acceptance of "TheFormer Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" as the country's name. 

The remaining two neighbors similarly created problems for Macedonia.Serbia posed the greater threat, hinting that it might claim the formerYugoslav republic as Serbia's holding earlier in the century and pointingto medieval Serb roots in the region. With Serbian nationalism alreadybeing expressed violently in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, the threatto Macedonia was viewed by the international community as very real, anda mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)and a U.N. peacekeeping contingent with American participation were deployedin 1992 and 1993 respectively.4 Tensions atthe northern border were exacerbated by the break-up of the Yugoslav economy,which had tied Macedonia very closely to Serbia, and the enforcement ofa trade blockade on Serbia. Both the economic breakdown and the trade blockadehad severe economic consequences. Albania, the remaining neighbor, at firstestablished relations with Macedonia and sought to develop ties, but Macedonia'svulnerability in 1993 and 1994 made direct support for separatists amongthe Macedonian Albanian population irresistible. 

The conclusion of the Bosnian conflict and the establishment of relationswith Greece brought needed stability to Macedonia. In 1997, however, civilanarchy erupted in Albania, posing a new threat to Macedonia: arms smuggling.The cause of the violence was the collapse of pyramid banking schemes,and Macedonia had some problems with such schemes at about the same time.Then, in 1998, outright conflict broke out in Kosovo, as Albanians frustratedby continuing repression despite passive resistance opted to fight withthe Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) against Serbian security and Yugoslavmilitary forces. As a result, both the OSCE and UNPREDEP have maintainedtheir presence in the country. 

However, this period has seen internal problems become more threateningto stability than difficult neighbors. Tensions rose particularly stronglyas Macedonian authorities and Albanian activists squared off on the issueof establishing an Albanian-language university in the northwest city ofTetovo, as well as over the right to fly the Albanian flag. Representativesof the Albanian community provoked confrontations on specific occasions,but the authorities, perhaps hoping to demonstrate that Macedonia was nolonger in such need of this community's cooperation, responded relativelyharshly in such cases even while it sought compromises on the general issues.

Meanwhile, greater stability brought rising expectations of improvementsin the standard of living, but the ruling coalition, led by the SDSM, wasmired in corruption and felt, based on the strong international supportit received, that the party was viewed as Macedonia's only real alternative.In addition, its