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Marine Fisheries

Stock Assessment Improvement Plan

Report of the National Marine Fisheries Service

National Task Force for Improving Fish Stock Assessments

Pamela M. Mace (Chair), Norman W. Bartoo, Anne B. Hollowed,

Pierre Kleiber, Richard D. Methot, Steven A. Murawski,

Joseph E. Powers, and Gerald P. Scott

October 2001

NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-F/SPO-56

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Donald Evans, Secretary

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN (ret.), Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere

National Marine Fisheries Service

William T. Hogarth, Assistant Administrator for Fisheries
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Copies of this document may be obtained by contacting:

Office of Science and Technology, F/ST

National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA

1315 East West Highway

Silver Spring, MD 20910

An online version is available at http://www.st.nmfs.gov/st2/index.html

Cover photo: Menhaden school. Credit: W. F. Hettler, National Marine Fisheries Service.

This publication may be cited as:

NMFS. 2001. Marine Fisheries Stock Assessment Improvement Plan. Report of the National Marine

Fisheries Service National Task Force for Improving Fish Stock Assessments. U.S. Dep. Commerce, NOAA

Tech. Memo. NMFS-F/SPO-56, 69 p., 25 appendices.
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Contents

List of Illustrations ............................................................................................................................................. vi

List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................................... vii

Preface ................................................................................................................................................................ ix

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................. 1

I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 5

Scope of the Stock Assessment Improvement Plan ...................................................................................... 5

II. Defining NMFSí Stock Assessment Mandate .............................................................................................. 7

A. What is a ìStock Assessmentî .............................................................................................................. 8

B. The Quality of NMFSí Assessments ..................................................................................................... 9

C. Changing Demands.............................................................................................................................. 10

Northeast Fisheries Science Center.................................................................................................... 10

Southeast Fisheries Science Center .................................................................................................... 11

Southwest Fisheries Science Center ................................................................................................... 12

Northwest Fisheries Science Center ................................................................................................... 12

Alaska Fisheries Science Center ......................................................................................................... 13

D. The Credibility of NMFSí Science ...................................................................................................... 13

E. Implications of the Precautionary Approach ....................................................................................... 14

F. Implications of the Need to Incorporate Ecosystem Considerations ................................................... 15

III. Assessment and Management Strategy Evaluation Needs.......................................................................... 17

A. Input Data ............................................................................................................................................ 17

(i) Fishery-dependent data needs ................................................................................................... 17

(ii) Fishery-independent data needs................................................................................................ 18

B. Input Data: Minimal and Optimal Requirements ................................................................................ 19

C. Stock Assessment Models ................................................................................................................... 23

D. Inventory of the Status of Stock Assessments: Adequacy of Input Data,

Assessment Level, and Frequency of Assessments.............................................................................. 24

E. Adequacy of Technology and Infrastructure ....................................................................................... 24

F. Peer Review of Assessments................................................................................................................ 25

Northeast Fisheries Science Center.................................................................................................... 25

Southeast Fisheries Science Center .................................................................................................... 26

Southwest Fisheries Science Center ................................................................................................... 26

Northwest Fisheries Science Center ................................................................................................... 27

Alaska Fisheries Science Center ......................................................................................................... 27

G. Translation of Stock Assessment Advice into Management Action .................................................... 27

H. Communication of Assessment Results and Follow-up Evaluations ................................................... 29

I. Staffing Issues ..................................................................................................................................... 29

Education and training ....................................................................................................................... 29

Time and motion analysis ................................................................................................................... 30

Beyond assessment scientists .............................................................................................................. 30

Northeast case study ........................................................................................................................... 32
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IV. Resource Requirements............................................................................................................................. 37

A. Programmatic Needs: Responses to questionnaires ............................................................................ 37

B. Three Tiers of Assessment Excellence ................................................................................................ 37

Tier 1 ñ Improve stock assessments using existing data................................................................... 37

Tier 2 ñ Elevate stock assessments to new national standards of excellence................................... 38

Tier 3 ñ Next generation assessments............................................................................................... 39

C. Timeframes and Relationships Between the Tiers ............................................................................... 43

D. Region-Specific Needs to Achieve the Three Tiers of Assessment Excellence ................................... 44

Northeast Fisheries Science Center................................................................................................... 44

NEFSC current situation ............................................................................................................................ 44

NEFSC programs and staffing required to meet the three tiers of excellence ......................................... 45

Southeast Fisheries Science Center ................................................................................................... 46

SEFSC current situation ............................................................................................................................ 46

SEFSC programs and staffing required to meet the three tiers of excellence .......................................... 47

Southwest Fisheries Science Center................................................................................................... 48

SWFSC current situation ñ central and western Pacific .................................................................... 49

SWFSC current situation ñ west coast ...................................................................................................... 50

SWFSC programs and staffing required to meet the three tiers of excellence ....................................... 51

Northwest Fisheries Science Center .................................................................................................. 52

NWFSC current situation........................................................................................................................... 52

NWFSC programs and staffing required to meet the three tiers of excellence ........................................ 52

Alaska Fisheries Science Center ........................................................................................................ 54

AFSC current situation ñ Gulf of Alaska groundfish ............................................................................... 56

AFSC current situation ñ Bering Sea / Aleutian Islands ................................................................... 56

AFSC programs and staffing required to meet the three tiers of excellence ........................................... 57

E. Summary: National Resource Requirements ....................................................................................... 60

F. The Benefits of Implementing the Stock Assessment Improvement Plan ............................................ 61

V. Recommendations...................................................................................................................................... 65

References........................................................................................................................................................ 67

Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................................ 68

Acronyms......................................................................................................................................................... 69

Appendix 1. Levels of input data (catch, abundance and life history parameters),

assessment methodology, and assessment frequency for the 904 species listed in the

NMFS (1999a) Report to Congress on the Status of Fisheries of the United States.............. A1

Appendix 2. Summary of the NMFS Science Quality Assurance Program .............................................. A25

Appendix 3. Executive Summary from the NOAA Fisheries Data Acquisition Plan .............................. A26

Appendix 4. Summary Description of the NMFS Stock Assessment Toolbox ........................................ A27

Appendix 5. Summary of the Objectives and Scope of the Center for Independent Experts Program .... A28

Appendix 6. Summary of the Joint NMFS/Sea Grant Graduate Fellowship Program ............................ A29
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Appendix 7. Extract from the Executive Summary of the NRC Report on Improving Fish

Stock Assessments (NRC 1998a) ......................................................................................... A31

Appendix 8. Executive Summary of the Report to Congress on a Proposed Implementation

of a Fishing Vessel Registration and Fisheries Information Management System ............... A34

Appendix 9. Executive Summary of the NMFS Bycatch Plan ................................................................. A37

Appendix 10. Summary of the National Observer Program Initiative ....................................................... A39

Appendix 11. Extract from the NMFS Social Sciences Plan and FY2001 Budget Initiative ..................... A41

Appendix 12. Terms of Reference for the NMFS Standing Working Group on Advanced Technologies .. A43

Appendix 13. Summary of the Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) Fisheries

Oceanography Initiative ....................................................................................................... A45

Appendix 14. Protected Species Programs, Plans, and Initiatives ............................................................. A46

Appendix 15. Habitat Programs, Plans, and Initiatives ............................................................................. A48

Appendix 16. Extract from the Executive Summary of the NRC Report on Review of

Northeast Fishery Stock Assessments (NRC 1998b) ........................................................... A50

Appendix 17. Executive Summary from ìTechnical Guidance on the Use of Precautionary

Approaches to Implementing National Standard 1 of the Magnuson-Stevens

Fishery Conservation and Management Actî (Restrepo et al. 1998) ................................... A51

Appendix 18. Conclusions and Recommendations from the Executive Summary of the NRC

Report on Sustaining Marine Fisheries (NRC 1999) ........................................................... A53

Appendix 19. Extract from the Executive Summary of the Ecosystem Principles Advisory

Panel Report (NMFS 1999b) ............................................................................................... A57

Appendix 20. Extract from the Executive Summary of the NRC Study on Improving the Use

and Collection of Fisheries Data (NRC 2000) ..................................................................... A59

Appendix 21. List of Relevant National Marine Fisheries Service Partnerships ........................................ A62

Appendix 22. Cooperative Research Programs with the Fishing Industry.................................................. A67

Appendix 23. Summary of NOAAís Ocean Exploration Program............................................................. A68

Appendix 24. Summary of the Census of Marine Life Program................................................................. A69

Appendix 25. A Non-exhaustive List of Other Programs and Activities that Could Provide

Data and Other Inputs to Help Launch Stock Assessments Towards Tier 3 ........................ A70
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List of Illustrations

Figure 1. Relationship between availability of information and levels of uncertainty................................... 15

Figure 2. Theoretical effects of added information on recommended biological yields ................................. 15

Figure 3. Summary descriptions of levels of factors used to classify stocks in terms

of input data and assessment status ............................................................................................... 20

Figure 4. Number of stocks with various levels of input data, assessment methodology,

and assessment frequency .............................................................................................................. 22

Figure 5. Time and motion analysis for NMFS assessment scientists........................................................... 31

Figure 6. Schematic showing relative staffing requirements to support the provision of

scientific advice for fisheries management ..................................................................................... 32

Figure 7. Schematic showing the relative costs of adding new species to be assessed .................................. 32

Figure 8. Assessment-related staffing levels by type of activity for the

Northeast Fisheries Science Center ................................................................................................ 33

Figure 9. Programmatic needs averaged over responses from assessment scientists

within each Science Center ............................................................................................................ 38

Figure 10. Impediments to the quality of assessments averaged over responses from

assessment scientists within each Science Center .......................................................................... 39

Figure 11. Fishery-dependent data needs averaged over responses from assessment

scientists within each Science Center ............................................................................................. 40

Figure 12. Fishery-independent data needs averaged over responses from assessment

scientists within each Science Center ............................................................................................. 41

Figure 13. Summary of the key features of the three Tiers of Assessment Excellence ................................... 42

Figure 14. Number of stocks assessed by assessment level at the

Northeast Fisheries Science Center ................................................................................................ 44

Figure 15. Summary of FTE requirements by Science Center, Tiers of Assessment

Excellence, and activity .................................................................................................................. 61
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List of Tables

Table 1. Numbers of fish stocks with various levels of input data,

assessment methodology, and assessment frequency...................................................................... 21

Table 2. FTEs required to meet the three Tiers of Assessment Excellence

 by type of activity for the Northeast Fisheries Science Center ..................................................... 45

Table 3. FTEs required to meet the three Tiers of Assessment Excellence

by type of activity for the Southeast Fisheries Science Center ...................................................... 48

Table 4. FTEs required to meet the three Tiers of Assessment Excellence

by type of activity for the Southwest Fisheries Science Center ..................................................... 50

Table 5. FTEs required to meet the three Tiers of Assessment Excellence

by type of activity for the Northwest Fisheries Science Center ..................................................... 54

Table 6. FTEs required to meet the three Tiers of Assessment Excellence

by type of activity for the Alaska Fisheries Science Center........................................................... 57

Table 7. FTEs required to meet the three Tiers of Assessment Excellence

by type of activity for all NMFS Science Centers combined ......................................................... 62

Table 8. Total FTEs required to meet the three Tiers of Assessment Excellence

for each Science Center and all Centers combined ........................................................................ 62
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Preface

This report argues for greatly increased resources in terms

of data collection facilities and staff to collect, process,

and analyze the data, and to communicate the results, in

order for NMFS to fulfill its mandate to conserve and

manage marine resources. In fact, the authors of this report had great difficulty defining the ìidealî situation to

which fisheries stock assessments and management should

aspire. One of the primary objectives of fisheries management is to develop sustainable harvest policies that

minimize the risks of overfishing both target species and

associated species. This can be achieved in a wide spectrum of ways, ranging between the following two extremes.

The first is to implement only simple management measures with correspondingly simple assessment demands,

which will usually mean setting fishing mortality targets

at relatively low levels in order to reduce the risk of unknowingly overfishing or driving ecosystems towards undesirable system states. The second is to expand existing

data collection and analysis programs to provide an adequate knowledge base that can support higher fishing

mortality targets while still ensuring low risk to target

and associated species and ecosystems. However, defining ìadequateî is difficult, especially when scientists have

not even identified all marine species, and information

on catches, abundances, and life histories of many target

species, and most associated species, is sparse. Increasing calls from the public, stakeholders, and the scientific

community to implement ecosystem-based stock assessment and management make it even more difficult to define ìadequate,î especially when ìecosystem-based managementî is itself not well-defined. In attempting to describe the data collection and assessment needs for the

latter, the authors took a pragmatic approach, rather than

trying to estimate the resources required to develop a

knowledge base about the fine-scale detailed distributions,

abundances, and associations of all marine species. Thus,

the specified resource requirements will not meet the expectations of some stakeholders. In addition, the Stock

Assessment Improvement Plan is designed to be complementary to other related plans, and therefore does not

duplicate the resource requirements detailed in those plans,

except as otherwise noted.
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