February 4, 2020

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 1 

The U.S.-China “Phase One” Deal: A Backgrounder

Virgil Bisio, Charles Horne, Ann Listerud, Kaj Malden, Leyton Nelson, Nargiza Salidjanova & Suzanna Stephens

Overview

On January 15, 2020, President Donald Trump and China’s Vice Premier Liu He signed a “Phase One” trade 

agreement. It forms part of an effort to resolve trade tensions that have been ongoing since March 2018, when the 

Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) published its Section 301 investigation into China’s tradedistorting practices.1 The deal includes commitments by China to purchase an additional $200 billion worth of U.S. 

products over 2017 levels in four sectors (manufactured goods, services, agricultural products, and energy) over the 

next two years.

2 China also made new promises not to manipulate its currency,* protect foreign intellectual property

(IP), and refrain from forcing foreign companies to transfer technology.

Although the deal includes commitments from China to open up access for U.S. financial services firms and 

expedite approval for genetically modified foods—two longstanding complaints by U.S. exporters—it falls short 

on addressing fundamental structural problems in the U.S.-China relationship. For instance, China’s continued use 

of industrial policy to guide economic outcomes, including industrial espionage and massive subsidies given to 

favored companies, did not get a mention. Trump Administration officialssaid outstanding concerns will be covered 

in subsequent talks, but announced no immediate plans for the next phase of negotiations.

3

The agreement concludes with a chapter on a new dispute resolution process. If a private company or either 

government believes the other party is not complying with the terms of the deal, they will engage in a consultative 

process through which progressively higher levels of officials assess issues related to the agreement’s 

implementation and resolve disputes.†If the disagreement cannot be resolved through consultation, the complaining 

party can respond “by suspending an obligation under [the agreement] or by adopting a remedial measure in a 

proportionate way.”4 The deal allows either side to provide a written notice of withdrawal from the agreement if it 

believes the other party is acting in “bad faith.” 

The ongoing spread of the coronavirus is taking a toll on China’s public health and economy, and may impact its 

ability and willingness to meet the commitments in the Phase One deal. The deal includes a clause that calls on 

parties to enter consultations if “a natural disaster or other unforeseeable event outside the control of the parties 

delays a party from timely complying with its obligations.” At the time of publication of this brief, China has not 

request its commitments be waived or suspended.

 

* The Trump Administration designated China as a currency manipulator in August 2019, and formally removed this designation on January 

13, 2020. U.S. Department of the Treasury, Treasury Releases Report on Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading 

Partners of the United States, January 13, 2020. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm873. 

† The dispute resolution timeline grants officials 45 days from the date of the receipt of the complaint to reach a resolution (split into 

progressively higher levels of official review). If a resolution is not reached, and the complaining party presents the issue to the U.S. Trade 

Representative and the designated Vice Premier of China, these officials shall hold a meeting within 30 calendar days from the date of the 

meeting request. The U.S. Trade Representative or the designated Vice Premier of China can also request a meeting “on a matter of 

urgency,” which shall be scheduled within 30 calendar days from the date of the receipt of that request.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 2 

Tariff Reductions

As a concession, the Trump Administration agreed to lower tariffs from 15 percent to 7.5 percent on an announced 

$120 billion worth of U.S. imports from China.* 5 These tariffs, imposed in September 2019, will be reduced when 

the Phase One deal enters into force on February 14, 2020.

6

In addition to announcing tariff reductions on January 

15,† during negotiations the Trump Administration also suspended planned tariffs on about $180 billion‡ of U.S. 

imports,

7 which had been set to take effect in mid-December 2019.8 Likewise, China’s State Council Customs Tariff 

Commission suspended its additional tariffs to be implemented in mid-December, and it continued to suspend 

retaliatory tariffs on U.S. auto exports it had planned to reimpose.9 

According to the USTR, tariffs will remain in place on about $370 billion out of $550 billion in total U.S. imports 

from China.§10 Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, calculates that 

following the deal’s implementation, U.S. tariffs on imports from China will stand at 19 percent on average, up 

from 3 percent in January 2018.

11 Remaining tariffs on U.S. imports from China target machinery, parts, and 

components used broadly in manufacturing.

** Dr. Bown estimates tariffs cover 93 percent of components imports 

from China, compared with 69 percent of consumer products.12 President Trump has described the retention of the 

remaining tariffs as necessary leverage for negotiations toward a Phase Two deal.††

 

* The USTR had initially announced these tariffs at 10 percent on August 20, 2019, then modified the rate to 15 percent on August 30, 2019. 

Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, “Notice of Modification of Section 301 Action: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to 

Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation,” Federal Register 84: 169 (August 30, 2019). 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/Notice_of_Modification%E2%80%93August_2019.pdf. 

† Tariffs reduced on January 15 affected a wide range of imports, including food products, textiles and clothing, household items and furniture, 

sporting goods, metal imports like steel and aluminum products, machinery equipment, and technology goods and inputs (e.g., televisions

and cameras). Tariffs suspended in mid-December also affected a wide range of imports, including chemicals, textiles and clothing, 

household items and furniture, technology goods and inputs (e.g., mobile phones, speakers), and Christmas ornaments. For the full list, 

refer to Annex B (January 15 reduction) and Annex D (mid-December suspension). Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, “Notice of 

Modification of Section 301 Action: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and 

Innovation,” Federal Register 84: 161 (August 20, 2019). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2019-08-20/pdf/2019-17865.pdf. 

‡

In its notice, the USTR stated that tariffs proposed on August 20 would affect about $300 billion of U.S. imports from China. On December 

13, the USTR stated that tariffs on part of the August 20 product list (imposed September 1) had affected $120 billion of U.S. imports. 

According to the USTR’s calculations, the decision to suspend tariffs in December affected $180 billion of U.S. imports. Office of the U.S. 

Trade Representative, Notice of Modification of Section 301 Action: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, 

Intellectual Property, and Innovation, January 15, 2020, 3. 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/Notice_of_Modification-January_2020.pdf; Office of the U.S. Trade 

Representative, United States and China Reach Phase One Trade Agreement, December 13, 2019. https://ustr.gov/about-us/policyoffices/press-office/press-releases/2019/december/united-states-and-china-reach.

§ USTR’s calculations are the sum of three sets of tariffs following its Section 301 report from March 22, 2018: (1) tariffs on about $50 

billion in imports implemented in two phases on July 6, 2018 and August 23, 2018; (2) tariffs on about $200 billion in imports implemented 

on September 24, 2018; and (3) tariffs on about $300 billion in imports, originally to be implemented in two phases on September 1, 2019 

and December 15, 2019. USTR referenced $550 billion as the total value of U.S. imports from China on August 23, 2019. As USTR stated

that $120 billion in imports were affected by the September 1 tariffs, the total value of U.S. imports from China still affected by tariffs can

be calculated as $370 billion ($50 billion + $200 billion + 120 billion). Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, “USTR Statement on 

Section 301 Tariff Action Regarding China,” August 23, 2019. https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/pressreleases/2019/august/ustr-statement-section-301-tariff. 

** Imports affected by remaining tariffs include electrical machinery and equipment, machinery and mechanical appliances, furniture and 

lighting, iron or steel products, chemicals, plastic products, and precision instruments. For information about specific product categories, 

see U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Economics and Trade Bulletin, August 6, 2018, 8. 

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/August%202018%20Trade%20Bulletin.pdf. 

†† In the Phase One signing ceremony, President Trump said, “I will agree to take those tariffs off if we’re able to do phase two, otherwise 

we don’t have any cards to negotiate with.” Shawn Donnan, Josh Wingrove, and Sahela Mohsin, “U.S. and China Sign Phase One of Trade 

Deal,” Bloomberg, January 15, 2020. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-15/u-s-china-sign-phase-one-of-trade-dealtrump-calls-remarkable.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 3 

Expanding Purchases of U.S. Products

The agreement requires China to increase purchases of U.S. products by at least $200 billion over 2017 levels,*split 

into two tranches: $76.7 billion in 2020 and $123.3 billion in 2021. Specifically, China committed to purchase an 

extra $77.7 billion in manufactured goods, $52.4 billion in energy, $32 billion in agricultural goods, and $37.9 

billion in services. The deal includes a detailed appendix identifying specific products in each category.†

The $200 billion in additional imports represents an ambitious expansion of U.S.-China trade targets. U.S. exports 

to China in 2021 would have to be 92 percent higher than they were in 2017 to meet the terms of the deal, prompting 

some analysts to question whether China will be able to ramp up purchases of U.S. imports this quickly.13 This is 

of particular concern for U.S. goods that are currently not price competitive in China, such as soybeans, even as 

China has waived the 33 percent retaliatory tariff on some U.S. soybeans.14 China’s trade negotiating team has also 

stated that China will not relax its tariff-rate quotas (TRQs)‡ on goods such as corn, rice, and wheat, undermining 

the competitiveness of those U.S. exports.15 The Chinese government has a history of applying the TRQs in an 

opaque and managed way that ensures the quota is never met, which restricts access for U.S. farmers and violates 

China’s WTO commitments.§

Some observers worry that in order to meet the agreement’s requirements for expanded U.S. imports, the Chinese 

government may have to direct large-scale purchases of U.S. products—in other words, increasing even further the 

government’s role in economic decision making.16 Meeting the terms of the agreement may also lead China to divert 

trade from other countries, including U.S. trade allies, in favor of U.S. imports.17 Similarly, the United States may 

need to divert exports away from other countries in order to increase sales to China. This possibility has led some 

trade experts to claim that the agreement undermines World Trade Organization (WTO) most-favored nation rules 

that require equal treatment of trading partners.18 EU Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan has said that his team will 

investigate whether the purchase agreement is compatible with WTO rules.19

China Makes New Promises on IP and Technology Transfer 

The Phase One agreement opens with chapters on IP and technology transfer, addressing issues at the core of the 

USTR’s March 2018 Section 301 investigation. For IP, much of the emphasis is on procedural changes that work 

to bring China’s administration of the IP lifecycle—from patenting, to licensing, to administrative and criminal 

enforcement—in line with norms of developed countries.20 Other provisions aim to create a level playing field for 

foreign firms and ensure better protections in specific high-value markets, namely pharmaceuticals.21 While the IP 

chapter does not prescribe any monitoring or enforcement mechanism beyond the general dispute resolution 

 

* Total U.S. exports to China in 2017 were $186 billion. The goods and services included in the increased purchase targets accounted for 

$134 billion of these exports. Chad Bown, “Trump’s Phase One Deal with China Relies on Overblown Estimates of What the U.S. Can 

Sell,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 21, 2020. https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policywatch/trumps-phase-one-deal-china-relies-overblown-estimates-what.

† The goods and services are divided into 12 categories and 567 subcategories, some of which have more specific purchase benchmarks. In 

order to avoid fluctuations in the prices for these products, the more detailed targets have not been made public. World Trade Online, 

“China Deal Includes Promises Not to Retaliate, IP and Biotech Commitments,” January 15, 2020. https://insidetrade.com/dailynews/china-deal-includes-promises-not-retaliate-ip-and-biotech-commitments.

‡ Under its World Trade Organization (WTO) accession protocol, China agreed to allow quotas (known as TRQs) of foreign rice, wheat, and 

corn into the country at a 1 percent tariff. All imports beyond these quotas are subject to a prohibitive 65 percent tariff. However, the 

Chinese government pursues a policy of self-sufficiency in rice, wheat, and corn, and provides generous subsidies to domestic farmers to 

the disadvantage of foreign producers. For more information, see U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “China’s 

Agricultural Policies: Trade, Investment, Safety, and Innovation,” in 2018 Annual Report to Congress, November 2018, 132.

§

In December 2016, the United States challenged China’s administration of the TRQs at the WTO. The dispute settlement panel ruled in 

U.S. favor in April 2019. China agreed to bring its practice into compliance by December 31, 2019; as of the writing of this report, it is 

not clear if China had done so. World Trade Organization, China — Tariff Rate Quotas for Certain Agricultural Products, DS517. 

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds517_e.htm. 
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 4 

provision in Chapter 7, the agreement requires China to provide an action plan outlining how it will meet its 

obligations 30 days after signing, including an estimated timeline for implementing each provision.22

A separate chapter on technology transfer addresses overarching concerns raised by the Section 301 report. It both

prohibits China from conditioning market access on transfer of technology—reiterating a commitment China made 

in its 2001 WTO accession protocol—and forbids the Chinese government from directing overseas investment with 

the explicit aim of acquiring technology to fulfill industrial policy goals.23 The statements are short, however, and 

in contrast to other chapters of the agreement, there are no monitoring guidelines, enforcement mechanisms, clear 

deadlines, or trade targets to meet. Absent firm commitments, the United States may lack metrics by which to judge 

China’s compliance. This is particularly problematic given U.S. companies are often reluctant to share information 

about forced technology transfers for fear of backlash from the Chinese government. Chinese law has long 

prohibited officials from preconditioning licensing and investment approvals on sharing technology—to little 

effect—and evidence suggests China’s overseas investment is becoming more, not less, guided by industrial policy 

targets.24 It is also unclear how the United States would be able to prove the acquisition decisions of a so-called 

“private” company were directed by the government, given the extensive influence of the Chinese Communist Party 

in nominally private companies.25

Specific provisions in the IP chapter require China to: 

 Shift the burden of proof from the plaintiff to the accused in civil proceedings for trade secret theft once 

the plaintiff has met a minimum threshold of evidence;

 Move cases from administrative to criminal court if there is “reasonable suspicion” a criminal IP violation 

occurred;

 Establish a patent linkage system*for pharmaceuticals;

 Provide for patent terms to be extended where the patent approval process faces regulatory delay; and

 Eliminate burdensome consular verifications of evidence presented in IP cases, including requirements that 

consulates certify the patent holder’s identity.26

A number of U.S. lawyers praised the breadth of the IP chapter. Former National Economic Council Deputy Director 

Clete Williams suggested provisions on IP enforcement are the most impactful aspect of the agreement, noting that 

China’s increased criminal enforcement for IP infringement would drastically improve operating conditions for 

U.S. companies in China. 27 The National Law Review similarly hailed potential commercial gains for U.S. 

companies if China follows through on pledges to eliminate use of unlicensed software within governmentcontrolled entities and stepping up criminal penalties for bad-faith trademarks.28

Nonetheless, some IP experts worry the deal’s provisions are too vague to ensure effective implementation.29 Lack 

of clarity stems chiefly from uncertainty over agency jurisdiction (e.g., the article on shifting trade secret theft cases 

from administrative to criminal court does not detail how this would happen), so China’s follow-up action plan may 

assuage concerns if it is more prescriptive.30 Other provisions could prove ineffective in the context of China’s legal 

system. For instance, the Phase One agreement requires Chinese courts to issue a preliminary injunction in urgent 

cases of potential trade secret disclosure. Susan Finder, author of the legal blog Supreme Court Monitor, observes 

that because China does not have an independent judiciary, judges are incentivized not to find cases “urgent” for 

fear a later review would determine the injunction was unwarranted.31

 

* Patent linkage systems protect branded pharmaceuticals from infringement but also allow potential generic competitors to challenge whether 

a patent holder’s claim is valid or applicable to a proposed generic drug. Such systems prevent expensive and time-consuming litigation 

by requiring pharmaceutical regulators to review claims directly before they go to court. Under the system proposed in the Phase One trade 

deal, patent holders would be notified and have a chance to respond any time a potential generic competitor claimed they were not infringing 

on the patent holder’s IP. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2020 Economic and Trade 

Agreement between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2019, 1–5.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 5 

Some IP legal scholars also expressed concern the Phase One agreement prescribes moderate adjustments rather 

than structural changes needed to bring China’s system into compliance with international norms. Critics also noted 

the agreement is mute on China’s more activist role in the global IP system, particularly as it increases its portfolio 

of standards-essential patents. For the former, critics warn the agreement overemphasizes criminal and 

administrative IP enforcement at the expense of civil cases. This could reinforce a tendency for administrative 

solutions to market problems in China, where other countries’ experience demonstrates civil litigation is more 

effective in establishing the value of IP.

32 While China’s IP courts* have increased in number substantially and 

improved in their sophistication, the punitive damages they award are not on par with civil awards in other countries,

and are therefore not substantial enough to deter infringement.33 The agreement does little to address this status quo. 

With regard to China’s more activist approach to patenting and enforcing its own IP, the agreement’s focus on 

strengthening criminal proceedings may backfire if Chinese IP prosecutors view expanded power as a tool to 

penalize competitors of Chinese patent holders without transparency and due process.34

U.S. Financial Services Providers to Get More Access

Chapter 4 of the Phase One agreement lays out each country’s commitments for the financial services sector. China 

promised to remove restrictions on investment, reduce burdensome regulation, and expeditiously review pending 

license applications of U.S. companies in its domestic banking, credit rating, electronic payments, asset 

management, insurance and securities industries. The United States reaffirmed its commitment not to discriminate 

against Chinese financial service providers and acknowledged pending requests by Chinese companies. 

Most of the commitments undertaken by China on financial sector opening are either restatements of, or minor 

improvements on, previous pledges and market-opening steps that were already in the works. For example, China 

committed to allow U.S. credit ratings agencies to acquire majority ownership in existing joint ventures and to 

expeditiously review pending applications by U.S. companies to provide credit rating services for onshore 

securities. This, however, was simply a renewal of a promise China had already made to allow U.S. access to its 

domestic credit ratings market as part of the U.S.-China 100-day action plan announced after President Trump’s 

first meeting with General Secretary Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago in April 2017. Moreover, S&P already received 

approval to provide credit rating services for China’s domestic bond market in January 2019. Although the 

reiteration of this promise is a welcome development and sends a positive signal to U.S. businesses. At the same 

time, it reflects Beijing’s foot-dragging on widening market access for U.S. ratings agencies, and underscores how 

the Chinese government often fails to honor its promises unless significant external pressure is applied. 

In another example of restating past promises, China committed to make a determination on license applications 

from U.S. electronic payments companies including those of Visa and Mastercard. In its 2017 Annual Report, the 

Commission documented how China has repeatedly used burdensome regulation and delay tactics to block U.S. 

electronic payments companies from expanding into China despite an adverse WTO ruling on the issue in 2012. 

Visa and Mastercard have been seeking market access ever since China phased out cobranded credit cards in 2016. 

The day after the agreement was signed, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said the commitments undertaken by 

China on financial services fully align with the government’s goals of opening up and professionalizing the sector 

that it clearly laid out in 2017 and 2018. In essence, Chinese policymakers have merely adjusted the timing of 

opening measures they would have adopted anyway to facilitate the conclusion of the agreement with Washington.

The long-term implications of China lowering some of its financial barriers remain to be seen. One immediate effect 

would be to accelerate inflows of U.S. and other foreign capital (e.g., through direct investment or inclusion in 

indices such as MSCI). This would, in turn, increase the exposure of U.S. investors and savers to Chinese stock and 

bond markets. Some U.S. policymakers have expressed concern regarding the effective oversight of U.S. financial 

 

* Many intermediate IP courts in China rule on civil, administrative, and criminal IP cases together. They are colloquially referred to as 

“three-in-one courts.” Richard Li et al., “China’s Specialized IP Courts,” Kluwer Patent Blog, April 10, 2017. 

http://patentblog.kluweriplaw.com/2017/04/10/chinas-specialized-ip-courts/. 
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 6 

flows to Chinese corporate entities whose financial health, commercial operations, and proximity to the Chinese 

government are not sufficiently disclosed.35

Reduced Barriers to U.S. Food and Agricultural Products

Agricultural products are a major U.S. export to China, but historically China has used nontariff barriers to restrict 

higher-value-added products such as processed meats or organic produce.36 Under the new agreement, Chinese

import authorities will now permit the import of beef, pork, and processed meat that passes inspection by the U.S. 

Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service.37 China also committed to reduce the 

review and approval period for genetically modified products to “no more than 24 months”—down from the current 

approval period of five to seven years.38

Sections of the trade agreement reiterate and expand on a previous memorandum of understanding (MOU) *

originally signed in 2017 between the FDA and China’s Certification and Accreditation Administration of the 

People’s Republic of China (CNCA).39 In signing the MOU, the CNCA recognized products inspected at FDAapproved dairy and seafood facilities as suitable for export to China. 40 Though the original MOU pertained 

exclusively to seafood and dairy, the Phase One agreement stipulates the CNCA will recognize FDA inspections of 

fresh and processed meat and poultry as well. 41 The Phase One agreement continues many of the protocols 

previously agreed to under the MOU, including the continuation of China’s right to request an audit—conducted

by agreed-upon third parties—of facilities due to product safety concerns.42

The Phase One agreement also requires that China simplify and expedite its notoriously convoluted review and 

approval process for agricultural biotechnology. Under the agreement, the new review will take less than 24 months 

from formal application submission to final decision on a product.43 Steps written into the trade agreement meant 

to expedite the process include accepting applications for agriculture biotech products on a year-round basis, and 

“not request[ing] information unnecessary for assessing the safety of a product for its intended use.”44 Chinese 

authorities are obligated to inform importers of U.S. export shipments delayed due to the presence of genetically 

modified crops, and to provide the United States with a summary of related risks or safety assessments.45

U.S. industry groups have previously criticized China’s approval process for biotech crops for being highly opaque 

and unpredictable.46 Approval of foreign genetically modified crops to China submitted between 2010 and 2017 

took on average 43 months from submission to approval; some U.S. biotech products took over six years to receive 

approval without clearly communicated scientific reasons for the delay.47 China approved no new genetically 

modified crops for import in 2018, and only seven new U.S. genetically modified crops in 2019.48

Further Reading

 A monthly assessment of the U.S.-China economic relationship: U.S.-China Economic and Security 

Review Commission, Economics and Trade Bulletin. 

 U.S.-China trade tensions in 2019: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “Year in 

Review: Economics and Trade,” in 2019 Annual Report to Congress, November 2019. 

 U.S. exposure to China’s financial markets: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 

Hearing on China’s Quest for Capital: Motivations, Methods, and Implications, January 23, 2020.

 Challenges posed by Chinese industrial policies: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review 

Commission, “U.S.-China Commercial Relations,” in 2019 Annual Report to Congress, November 2019. 

 

* For more information, see U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Memorandum of Understanding between Food and Drug Administration 

Department of Health and Human Services of the United States of America and Certification and Accreditation Administration of the 

People’s Republic of China Regarding Registration of U.S. Food Manufacturers Exporting to China, January 18, 2018.

https://www.fda.gov/international-programs/cooperative-arrangements/memorandum-understanding-between-food-and-drugadministration-department-health-and-human-services.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 7 

 China’s forced technology transfer: Sean O’Connor, “How Chinese Companies Facilitate Technology 

Transfer from the United States,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, May 6, 2019. 

 Limitations of China’s IP system: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “Tools to 

Address U.S.-China Economic Challenges,” in 2018 Annual Report to Congress, November 2018, 94–97. 

 China’s agricultural policies: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “China’s 

Agriculture Policies: Trade Investment, Safety, and Innovation,” in 2018 Annual Report to Congress, 

November 2018. 

Disclaimer: The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission was created by Congress to report on the national 

security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of 

China. For more information, visit www.uscc.gov or follow the Commission on Twitter at @USCC_GOV.

This report is the product of professional research performed by the staff of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review 

Commission, and was prepared at the request of the Commission to supports its deliberations. Posting of the report to the 

Commission’s website is intended to promote greater public understanding of the issues addressed by the Commission in its 

ongoing assessment of U.S.-China economic relations and their implications for U.S. security, as mandated by Public Law 106-

398 and Public Law 113-291. However, it does not necessarily imply an endorsement by the Commission, any individual 

Commissioner, or the Commission’s other professional staff, of the views or conclusions expressed in this staff research report.

1 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Section 301 Report into China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, 

Intellectual Property, and Innovation, March 27, 2018. https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Section%20301%20FINAL.PDF. 

2 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Economic and Trade Agreement between the Government of the United States of America and 

the Government of the People’s Republic of China, January 15, 2020. 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_Unite

d_States_And_China_Text.pdf.

3

Jonathan Garber, “US-China Trade War: Phase Two Talks Zero in on Beijing’s ‘Draconian’ Rules,” Fox Business, January 16, 2020. 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-trade-war-phase-two-talks-to-cover-these-areas. 

4 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Economic and Trade Agreement between the Government of the United States of America and 

the Government of the People’s Republic of China, January 15, 2020, 7–3. 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_Unite

d_States_And_China_Text.pdf.

5 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Notice of Modification of Section 301 Action: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to 

Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation, January 15, 2020, 3. 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/Notice_of_Modification-January_2020.pdf; Office of the U.S. Trade 

Representative, United States and China Reach Phase One Trade Agreement, December 13, 2019. https://ustr.gov/about-us/policyoffices/press-office/press-releases/2019/december/united-states-and-china-reach. 

6 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Notice of Modification of Section 301 Action: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to 

Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation, January 15, 2020, 3. 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/Notice_of_Modification-January_2020.pdf; Office of the U.S. Trade 

Representative, “Notice of Modification of Section 301 Action: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, 

Intellectual Property, and Innovation,” Federal Register 84: 243 (December 18, 2019). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2019-

12-18/pdf/2019-27306.pdf.

7 Chad Bown, “Phase One China Deal: Steep Tariffs Are the New Normal,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 19, 

2019. https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/phase-one-china-deal-steep-tariffs-are-new-normal#_ftnref6.

8 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, “Notice of Modification of Section 301 Action: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to 

Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation,” January 15, 2020, 2. 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/enforcement/301Investigations/Notice_of_Modification-January_2020.pdf; Office of the U.S. Trade 

Representative, “Notice of Modification of Section 301 Action: China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, 

Intellectual Property, and Innovation,” Federal Register 84: 243 (December 18, 2019). https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2019-

12-18/pdf/2019-27306.pdf.

9 China Ministry of Finance, State Council Tariff Commission Announcement to Suspend U.S.-Origin Imported Products Tariff Increase 

Measures (国务院关税税则委员会关于暂不实施对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征关税措施的公告), December 15, 2019. 

http://gss.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefabu/201912/t20191215_3441954.html; Xinhua, “China Suspends Planned Additional 

Tariffs on Some U.S. Products,” December 15, 2019. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-12/15/c_138632614.htm.

 
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 8 

 

10 Chad Bown, “Phase One China Deal: Steep Tariffs Are the New Normal,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 19, 

2019. https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/phase-one-china-deal-steep-tariffs-are-new-normal#_ftnref6.

11 Chad Bown, “Phase One China Deal: Steep Tariffs Are the New Normal,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 19, 

2019. https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/phase-one-china-deal-steep-tariffs-are-new-normal#_ftnref6.

12 Chad Bown, “Phase One China Deal: Steep Tariffs Are the New Normal,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 19, 

2019. https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/phase-one-china-deal-steep-tariffs-are-new-normal#_ftnref6.

13 Chad Bown, “Trump’s Phase One Deal with China Relies on Overblown Estimates of What the U.S. Can Sell,” Peterson Institute for 

International Economics, January 21, 2020. https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/trumps-phase-one-dealchina-relies-overblown-estimates-what; Tom Mitchell and Tom Hancock, “China Views Trade Deal as Welcome Respite in U.S. 

Battle,” Financial Times, January 21, 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/9005d1e8-3822-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4.

14 Finbarr Bermingham, “China’s Trade War Dear ‘May Be Doomed from the Start’ as Skepticism Mounts over Capacity to Buy U.S. 

Products,” South China Morning Post, January 21, 2020. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3047018/chinas-tradewar-deal-may-be-doomed-start-scepticism-mounts; Dominique Patton and Yawen Chen, “China to Waive Tariffs on Some U.S. 

Soybeans, Pork in Goodwill Gesture,” Reuters, December 6, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-tariffs/china-towaive-tariffs-on-some-u-s-soybeans-pork-in-goodwill-gesture-idUSKBN1YA0FW.

15 Orange Wang, Zhou Xin, and Finbarr Bermingham, “Trade War: China’s Refusal to Lift Grain Quotas Make Trump’s Phase One Import

Demands ‘More Difficult,’” South China Morning Post, January 7, 2020. https://www.scmp.com/economy/chinaeconomy/article/3044958/trade-war-chinas-refusal-lift-grain-quotas-make-trumps-phase.

16 Finbarr Bermingham, “China’s Trade War Dear ‘May Be Doomed from the Start’ as Skepticism Mounts over Capacity to Buy U.S. 

Products,” South China Morning Post, January 21, 2020. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3047018/chinas-tradewar-deal-may-be-doomed-start-scepticism-mounts.

17 Dandan Li, Crystal Chui, and Bryce Baschuk, “China Tries to Ease Concern U.S. Trade Deal Hurts Other Nations,” Bloomberg, January 

21, 2020. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-21/china-says-u-s-trade-deal-won-t-hurt-imports-from-other-nations. 

18 Reuters, “Germany Likely to Lose the Most from Trade Diverted by U.S.-Sino Trade Deal,” January 21, 2020. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-eu/germany-likely-to-lose-the-most-from-trade-diverted-by-u-s-sino-dealidUSKBN1ZK0ZG.

19 Jonathan Stearns, “Europe Threatens Legal Challenge to U.S.-China Trade Pact at WTO,” Bloomberg, January 16, 2020. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-16/europe-threatens-legal-challenge-to-u-s-china-trade-pact-at-wto.

20 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Office of the Treasury, 2020 Economic and Trade Agreement between the United 

States of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2019. 

21 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Office of the Treasury, 2020 Economic and Trade Agreement between the United 

States of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2019.

22 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Office of the Treasury, 2020 Economic and Trade Agreement between the United 

States of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2019, 1–16.

23 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Findings of the Investigation into China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology 

Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, March 22, 2018, 19. 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Section%20301%20FINAL.PDF.

24 Ernst and Young and China Mergers and Acquisitions Association, “How Does [sic] Geopolitical Dynamics Affect Future China 

Overseas Investment,” China Go Abroad: 8, November 2018, 4, 23. https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/ey-china-overseasinvestment-report-issue-8-en-new/$File/ey-china-overseas-investment-report-issue-8-en.pdf.

25 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Section 301 Report into China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, 

Intellectual Property, and Innovation, March 27, 2018, 86-90. https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Section%20301%20FINAL.PDF.

26 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Office of the Treasury, 2020 Economic and Trade Agreement between the United 

States of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2019.

27 Saheli Roy Choudhury, “Beijing cracking down on IP theft could boost investment in China, former US negotiator says,” CNBC, January 

16, 2020. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/16/us-china-trade-deal-intellectual-property-protection-benefits-beijing.html. 

28 Aaron Wininger, “China Makes Significant Commitments to Improve Intellectual Property Protection in Phase 1 Trade Deal,” National 

Law Review, January 31, 2020. https://www.natlawreview.com/article/china-makes-significant-commitments-to-improve-intellectualproperty-protection. 

29 Mark Cohen, “The Phase 1 IP Agreement: Its Fans and Discontents,” China IPR, January 21, 2020. https://chinaipr.com/2020/01/21/thephase-1-ip-agreement-its-fans-and-discontents/.

30 Mark Cohen, “The Phase 1 IP Agreement: Its Fans and Discontents,” China IPR, January 21, 2020. https://chinaipr.com/2020/01/21/thephase-1-ip-agreement-its-fans-and-discontents/.

31 Mark Cohen, “The Phase 1 IP Agreement: Its Fans and Discontents,” China IPR, January 21, 2020. https://chinaipr.com/2020/01/21/thephase-1-ip-agreement-its-fans-and-discontents/.

32 Scott Kennedy, “The Fat Tech Dragon: Benchmarking China’s Innovation Drive,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 

29, 2017. https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/170829_Kennedy_FatTechDragon_Web.pdf. 

33 Scott Kennedy, “The Fat Tech Dragon: Benchmarking China’s Innovation Drive,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 

29, 2017. https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/170829_Kennedy_FatTechDragon_Web.pdf. 

34 Mark Cohen, “The Phase 1 IP Agreement: Its Fans and Discontents,” China IPR, January 21, 2020. https://chinaipr.com/2020/01/21/thephase-1-ip-agreement-its-fans-and-discontents/.
U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission 9 

 

35 United States Senate, “Rubio, Shaheen Lead Bipartisan Group Urging TSP Board to Reverse Decision to Steer Federal Retirement 

Savings to China,” October 22, 2019. https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2019/10/rubio-shaheen-lead-bipartisan-groupurging-tsp-board-to-reverse-decision-to-steer-federal-retirement-savings-to-china; United States Senate, “Rubio Requests Information 

from MSCI Over Controversial Decision to Add Chinese Companies in its Equities Indexes,” June 12, 2019. 

https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2019/6/rubio-requests-information-from-msci-over-controversial-decision-to-addchinese-companies-in-its-equity-indexes. 

36 U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Chapter 1, Section 4, “China’s Agriculture Policy, Food Regulation, and the 

U.S.-China Agriculture Trade,” in 2013 Annual Report to Congress, November 2013, 154.

37 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Department of the Treasury, Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States 

of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2020, 3–8, 3–9.

38 U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Hearing on China’s Agricultural Policies: Trade, Investment, Safety, and 

Innovation, written testimony of Joseph Damond, April 26, 2018.

39 U.S. Food and Drug Administration, FDA Signs MOU with China to Outline Certification Process for Certain Exports: Original 

Constituent Update, June 15, 2017. https://www.fda.gov/food/cfsan-constituent-updates/fda-signs-mou-china-outline-certificationprocess-certain-exports.

40 U.S. Food and Drug Administration, FDA Signs MOU with China to Outline Certification Process for Certain Exports: Original 

Constituent Update, June 15, 2017. https://www.fda.gov/food/cfsan-constituent-updates/fda-signs-mou-china-outline-certificationprocess-certain-exports.

41 Office of U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Department of the Treasury, Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States of 

America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2020, 3–9; U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Memorandum of 

Understanding between Food and Drug Administration Department of Health and Human Services of the United States of America and 

Certification and Accreditation Administration of the People’s Republic of China Regarding Registration of U.S. Food Manufacturers 

Exporting to China, January 18, 2018. https://www.fda.gov/international-programs/cooperative-arrangements/memorandumunderstanding-between-food-and-drug-administration-department-health-and-human-services.

42 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Department of the Treasury, Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States 

of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2020, 3-3–3-11; U.S. Food and Drug Administration, 

Memorandum of Understanding between Food and Drug Administration Department of Health and Human Services of the United States

of America and Certification and Accreditation Administration of the People’s Republic of China Regarding Registration of U.S. Food 

Manufacturers Exporting to China, January 18, 2018. https://www.fda.gov/international-programs/cooperativearrangements/memorandum-understanding-between-food-and-drug-administration-department-health-and-human-services.

43 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Department of the Treasury, Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States 

of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2020, 3–19.

44 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Department of the Treasury, Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States 

of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2020, 3–19.

45 Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and U.S. Department of the Treasury, Economic and Trade Agreement between the United States 

of America and the People’s Republic of China: Phase One, January 15, 2020, 3–19.

46 Jeff Daniels, “Road to Approval for U.S. Biotech Crops in China Beset with Massive Delays, Costing Industry Billions,” CNBC, April 

15, 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/15/chinas-delay-of-us-biotech-crops-costing-industry-billions-of-dollars.html.

47 Jeff Daniels, “Road to Approval for U.S. Biotech Crops in China Beset with Massive Delays, Costing Industry Billions,” CNBC, April 

15, 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/15/chinas-delay-of-us-biotech-crops-costing-industry-billions-of-dollars.html; Yan Jin et al., 

“Getting an Imported GM Crop Approved in China: Appendix A Supplemental Data,” CellPress Reviews, March 28, 2019. 

https://www.cell.com/trends/biotechnology/fulltext/S0167-7799(19)30037-X.

48 Hallie Gu and Shivani Singh, “China Approves Two New GM Crops from U.S. for Import, Renews 10 Others,” Reuters, December 29, 

2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-gmo/china-approves-two-new-gm-crops-from-u-s-for-import-renews-10-othersidUSKBN1YY04Z; Dominique Patton, “China Gives Long-Awaited GM Crop Approvals amid U.S. Trade Talks,” Reuters, January 7, 

2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-gmo/china-gives-long-awaited-gm-crop-approvals-amid-u-s-trade-talksidUSKCN1P2028.