#### Distinguished Visitor

# Professor George Mirsky

## Russia in the Midst of Change

Russian Academy of Science Professor George Mirsky addressed
four issues during a roundtable discussion at the Institute for
National Strategic Studies.  They were: the current situation in
Russia, nationalism and relations between Russia and its "near
abroad", great power status for Russia, and suggestions for U.S.
policy vis-a-vis Zhirinovskiy.





## Situation in Russia





### The Economy





### Crime





### Society



People pursue business ventures that are built on paper rather than
actual production.





### Politics in a Worsening Environment -- Rutskoy and Zhirinovskiy





## Nationalism and Relations between Russia and the Near Abroad



### Russian Nationalism





### The "Near Abroad"

Some Russians felt it would have been better to have lost the
non-Russian republics. Some view Ukraine as having "seceded."
Russians felt betrayed when Chechenia in the North Caucasus of
Russia claimed independence. There is now an anti-Caucasus campaign
in Moscow. First the  Georgians and now the Azeris have captured
the fruit and vegetable markets in Moscow.

Russians have left Uzbekistan as they see no future there and
have left Tajikistan because of the war. Kazakhstan is different,
since there are  almost as many Russians there as Kazakhs, although
numbers of ethnic Kazakhs are increasing faster than Russians.
Russians feel that if they were to leave Kazakhstan, they should
take part of the territory of Kazakhstan with them.

Psychologically speaking, Russians in the Baltics feel
inferior to the Balts. In Central Asia, the  Russians regard the
indigenous Central Asians as inferior. There is psychological
compatibility between the Russians and the Kazakhs, and  between
Russians and Tatars.

The Tatars, however, are starting to take charge of the police
and other organizations in Tatarstan, a republic in the Russian
Federation,  and Kazakhs may take charge in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan
President Nazarbayev is trying to walk a tightrope between the
Kazakhs and Russians in Kazakhstan.





### CIS





### Russian Forces in the "Near Abroad"





### Islamic Threat





### Georgia





### Ukraine





## Great Power Status for Russia

Russian national pride has been hurt with the loss of great
power status. This helps explain the  Russian stance on Serbia, as
well as on the Kuril Islands and Sevastopol. Russians say they want
Russia to be  restored  to  the  position  of a great  power, not
a superpower. This restoration would begin with  increasing 
Russian  influence  in the "near abroad." Some believe that
Russia's throwing its  weight  around  in  the Transcaucasus and 
Central Asia will show the world that Russia is still a great
power. Any perception that efforts will be made to restore the
Soviet Union is an exaggeration.



The West should make a distinction between the area west of
Russia, where any attempts to interfere in the Baltics or Poland
should be opposed, and south of Russia. Russians see Europe as
lost.  But the West must be careful regarding Russian relations
with the zone of influence in Ukraine, the Transcaucasus, and
Central Asia. If the West tries to interfere, this will be
counterproductive and play into Zhirinovskiy's hands.





## Suggestion for Policy vis-a-vis Zhirinovskiy