CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 

COST ESTIMATE 

August 18, 2006

S. 2611

Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006

As passed by the Senate on May 25, 2006

SUMMARY

The Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006 would amend laws governing

immigration, authorize numerous initiatives to improve enforcement of those laws, and

increase the limits on legal immigration. Implementing those changes would increase both

direct spending (i.e., mandatory spending) and discretionary spending (i.e., spending subject

to annual appropriation action):

• CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that enacting this

legislation would increase direct spending by $16 billion over the 2007-2011 period

and by $48 billion over the 2007-2016 period.

• Pursuant to section 407 of H. Con. Res. 95 (the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget,

Fiscal Year 2006), CBO estimates that enacting S. 2611 would cause an increase in

direct spending greater than $5 billion in each of the 10-year periods between 2016

and 2055.

• Assuming appropriation of the amounts authorized in the act, CBO estimates that

discretionary spending would increase by $33 billion over the 2007-2011 period and

by $78 billion over the 2007-2016 period.

Enacting S. 2611 would have several effects on federal revenues, including changes in

collections of income and payroll taxes, certain visa fees that are classified as revenues, and

various fines and penalties. Taken together, the Joint Committee on Taxation and CBO

estimate that those effects would reduce federal revenues by about $79 billion over the 2007-

2016 period. However, it appears that the effect of one tax provision would be significantly

different from what was intended; if the language were modified to reflect that intent, the act

would increase revenues by about $44 billion over the 2007-2016 period, JCT and CBO

estimate.
2

The large difference between the two revenue estimates results from subsection 601(b),

which would exempt employers from all civil and criminal tax liabilities arising from the

employment of aliens applying for an adjustment of status, without limiting the period to

which the exemption applies. This provision would reduce receipts of payroll taxes because

employers would not be required to pay such taxes for alien employees. Because the

legislation does not specify a period of exemption, for purposes of this estimate, JCT has

assumed that the exemption would have both a retroactive and prospective effect. Staff of

the Senate Judiciary Committee have indicated that the exemption was intended to apply

retroactively—to periods of employment prior to the filing of an application for adjustment

of status—but not prospectively to the period after the application is filed and until

adjustment of status is granted.

S. 2611 would impose private-sector mandates, as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform

Act (UMRA), on employers and other entities that hire, recruit, or refer individuals for

employment. Those mandates would require employers that are determined to be “critical”

employers to verify the employment eligibility of their current employees, and would require

all employers and certain other entities to verify the employment eligibility of new hires and

maintain records of the verification process. Based on the large number of projected new

hires that employers and other entities would be required to verify, CBO expects that the

aggregate direct costs of the mandates would exceed the annual threshold for private-sector

mandates ($128 million in 2006, adjusted annually for inflation) in at least one of the first

five years the mandates are in effect.

S. 2611 would also impose several intergovernmental mandates. The act would preempt

state and local authority and would require state and local governments to consult with

communities in Mexico before building fences or other security structures along the border.

CBO estimates that the cost, if any, for those governments to comply with the preemptions

and the consultation requirement would be small. The act also would require state, local, and

tribal governments, like private employers, to verify the work eligibility of employees. The

cost for those governments to verify the work eligibility of their employees would depend

on regulations to be developed by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Those

government entities that the Secretary of DHS would designate as "critical" would have to

verify the eligibility of current employees, in addition to new hires. Depending on how that

designation is made, the costs to state, local, and tribal governments could range from

$30 million to $85 million in the first year the requirements were in effect. Until the

regulations for verifying the work eligibility of employees are promulgated, CBO cannot

determine whether the total costs to state, local, and tribal governments to comply with all

of the mandates in this act would exceed the annual threshold established in UMRA

($64 million in 2006, adjusted annually for inflation).
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ESTIMATED COST TO THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

The estimated budgetary impact of S. 2611 is summarized in Table 1, with the estimated

change in revenues based on the act’s intent shown as a Memorandum at the bottom of the

table. The costs of this legislation fall within budget functions 500 (education, training,

employment, and social services), 550 (health), 570 (Medicare), 600 (income security), 650

(Social Security), and 750 (administration of justice).

TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED BUDGET EFFECTS OF S. 2611, AS PASSED BY THE SENATE

By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2007-

2016

CHANGES IN DIRECT SPENDING

Estimated Outlays

On-budget -1.8 -1.4 5.9 5.9 5.8 4.6 4.9 5.6 6.2 7.4 43.3

Off-budget * 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 5.2

Total -1.8 -1.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 5.2 5.6 6.4 7.1 8.5 48.4

CHANGES IN REVENUES

Estimated Revenues

On-budget -1.4 1.7 -5.4 -8.4 -8.1 -3.8 -2.9 -2.3 0.1 1.6 -28.9

Off-budget -4.3 -8.3 -9.9 -9.5 -8.0 -6.2 -5.0 -3.9 -0.1 5.6 -49.6

Total -5.7 -6.7 -15.3 -17.9 -16.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.2 * 7.2 -78.5

CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION

Estimated Authorization Level 10.3 5.6 5.8 7.2 8.3 9.3 7.6 8.2 8.9 9.5 80.8

Estimated Outlays 3.7 6.3 7.6 7.3 8.3 9.1 9.2 8.9 8.7 9.3 78.3

Memorandum:

CHANGES IN REVENUES BASED ON THE ACT’S INTENT AS CONVEYED BY STAFF

Estimated Revenues

On-budget -0.8 3.3 -3.2 -6.2 -6.0 -1.9 -1.2 -0.7 1.3 2.0 -13.6

Off-budget -0.9 1.8 4.5 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.5 7.7 8.4 9.1 57.2

Total -1.8 5.1 1.3 -0.5 0.3 5.0 6.3 7.1 9.6 11.1 43.6

NOTES: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

 For changes in direct spending, estimated budget authority would be equal to estimated outlays.

 * = less than $50 million.
1. The corresponding estimates for the bill as introduced are displayed in a letter that CBO sent to Senator Jeff Sessions on May 24, 2006.

2. However, neither CBO nor JCT produces the specific programmatic assumptions necessary to estimate, in detail, the budgetary costs

beyond the normal 10-year projection period.

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BASIS OF ESTIMATE

This estimate draws heavily from CBO’s cost estimate for S. 2611, as introduced on

April 7, 2006. (That estimate was transmitted on May 16, 2006, and contains a more detailed

description of the bill’s major provisions and the methods that CBO used to estimate their

budgetary effects.) The estimate for the Senate-passed legislation reflects differences in the

legislative language, some refinements in our estimating methodology, and JCT’s

identification of the apparent drafting error in subsection 601(b) of the act.

For the purpose of this estimate, CBO assumes that S. 2611 will be enacted near the start of

fiscal year 2007 and that the necessary amounts will be appropriated for each fiscal year.

Effects on the U.S. Population

S. 2611 contains numerous provisions that would permit additional immigrants to enter the

United States, allow foreign nationals already legally present in the country to gain legal

permanent resident (LPR) status, and enable certain undocumented immigrants (sometimes

referred to as unauthorized or illegal aliens) now living in the United States to obtain legal

immigration status.

CBO’s estimates of the total number of individuals that would be affected by this legislation

at various points in time are shown in Table 2.1

 In response to Congressional requests, we

have expanded the usual 10-year time horizon and prepared population estimates through

2026.2

 In total, CBO estimates that more than 16 million people would either become LPRs

or adjust to some other legal status by 2016 under the act; ten years later, that figure would

grow to more than 24 million people. Of the total in 2016, we estimate that 9.5 million are

either in the country already or will enter the country under current law (legally or illegally)

during the next decade. The other 6.5 million would be additional entrants to the United

States; that figure includes children born to new entrants after their arrival in the country.
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TABLE 2. PROJECTED CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS AFFECTED BY THE MAJOR

PROVISIONS OF S. 2611, AS PASSED BY THE SENATE

2007 2011 2016 2021 2026

TOTAL INDIVIDUALS AFFECTED

Total individuals affected

Guest-worker program 0 1.5 3.3 4.9 6.4

Family-sponsored admissions 0.1 1.3 2.6 3.9 5.1

Employment-based admissions 0.1 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.2

Exclusion of certain immigrants

from limits 0.2 1.4 2.5 3.7 4.7

Legalization of undocumented

immigrants 2.1 5.3 4.4 4.0 3.7

Blue-card program 0.2 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.2

Total 2.7 12.4 16.1 20.3 24.4

INDIVIDUALS ADJUSTING IMMIGRATION STATUS

Individuals who are or will be in the

United States under current law and

would change their immigration status

Guest-worker program a 0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0

Family-sponsored admissions b * 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3

Employment-based admissions b 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.0 2.5

Exclusion of certain immigrants

from limits b 0.2 1.1 1.9 2.7 3.5

Legalization of undocumented

immigrants c 2.0 4.8 3.9 3.5 3.1

Blue-card program c 0.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8

Subtotal 2.4 8.7 9.5 10.9 12.1

NEW ENTRANTS

Individuals who would newly enter the

United States under S. 2611

Guest-worker program 0 1.3 2.7 4.1 5.5

Family-sponsored admissions 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.9 3.8

Employment-based admissions * 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7

Exclusion of certain immigrants

from limits * 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3

Legalization of undocumented

immigrants d 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6

Blue-card program d * 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Subtotal 0.3 3.7 6.5 9.4 12.2

(Continued)
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TABLE 2. CONTINUED

NOTES: The figures in this table are fiscal-year averages and include dependents.

The figures for individuals newly entering the United States include children born to new entrants after their arrival.

Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

* = fewer than 50,000.

a. CBO anticipates that these individuals would enter the United States illegally under current law. Under S. 2611, they would enter instead as

guest workers or their dependents.

b. Under current law, these individuals are in the United States already or would enter the country in the future using some type of nonimmigrant

visa. The act would allow then to become legal permanent residents sooner than they would otherwise.

c. Information from the Pew Hispanic Center indicates that about 11 million undocumented immigrants were in the United States in March 2005.

CBO anticipates that one million of them would not be affected by S. 2611 because they will eventually become legal permanent residents under

current law. We also estimate that about one million undocumented immigrants would not be eligible to obtain legal immigration status under

the act because they have been in the United States for less than two years. We also anticipate that about one million of the undocumented

immigrants would attain legal status under the bill through the blue-card program. Of the remaining undocumented immigrants, CBO estimates

that about two-thirds of those who have been in the country for more than five years would attain legal status and half of those who have been

here for between two and five years would gain legal status under S. 2611. The number of individuals with legal status would decline in later

years due to death, immigration, and the loss of legal status for individuals who do not complete the process of becoming legal permanent

residents.

d. These individuals would be dependents of undocumented immigrants that are already in the United States.

The largest factor contributing to the population increase would be a new guest-worker

program; by 2016, CBO estimates that the additional entrants under that program and their

offspring would total 2.7 million. We anticipate that the guest-worker program would admit

more than that number of new immigrants and that a portion of the guest-worker population

would enter the United States illegally in the absence of the program. Although the program

would allow individuals to enter the United States on a temporary basis to work, it would

also allow those workers to become legal permanent residents if they meet certain

requirements; CBO anticipates that many would do so. Increased limits on family-sponsored

and employment-based admissions (including certain immigrants who would not be subject

to numerical limits) would add 2.9 million to the U.S. population by 2016, CBO estimates.

Finally, status adjustments (including those resulting from the new "blue-card" program)

accorded certain undocumented immigrants currently in the United States would permit them

to bring additional family members into the country, resulting in another 0.9 million U.S.

residents by 2016.

Our estimate of the number of new entrants under the act is lower than our estimate of

7.8 million new entrants by 2016 under the introduced bill. The lower estimate is due largely

to changes that were made to the legislation, particularly to the guest-worker program. Those

legislative changes are discussed further in the following sections.
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Direct Spending

CBO and JCT anticipate that the act would increase spending for a variety of federal benefit

programs; most of the additional spending would be for refundable tax credits, Medicaid,

Social Security, Medicare, and Food Stamps. Overall, CBO and JCT estimate that enacting

S. 2611 would reduce direct spending by $1.8 billion in 2007, but increase such spending by

$48 billion over the 2007-2016 period. (JCT estimated the outlays for refundable tax credits;

CBO estimated all other costs.) The act’s estimated effects on direct spending are shown in

Tables 3 and 4 and its projected impact on enrollment in the major benefit programs is shown

in Table 5. (Those tables appear at the end of this estimate. The latter table does not include

the act’s effect on the number of people receiving refundable tax credits.)

The additional participation in the programs shown in the table would be only a modest

increase above projected enrollment under current law. For example, we estimate that

enrollment in the child nutrition, Food Stamp, and Medicaid programs—the programs whose

caseloads would be most affected by the act—would each be about 2 percent to 3 percent

higher in 2016 than under current law. The impact on the other programs would be much

smaller.

The estimated costs of the Senate-passed act are about $5 billion less than those of the

introduced version over the 2007-2016 period. The major factors accounting for that

difference are discussed below.

Guest-Worker Program. Title IV would create a new type of visa—the H-2C or "guestworker" visa—that would allow individuals to enter the United States on a temporary basis

to work. Guest workers who meet certain requirements would ultimately be able to apply

for permanent residency. CBO estimates that the provisions regarding guest workers would

increase direct spending by $4.1 billion over the 2007-2016 period.

Compared to S. 2611 as introduced, the version approved by the Senate makes two

significant changes to the new visa program:

• The act would limit the number of guest workers who could be admitted annually to

200,000; the bill as introduced had an initial limit of 325,000 that would increase or

decrease depending on how many H-2C visas were issued.

• The guest-worker program now would take effect 18 months after the date on which

at least $400 million has been appropriated and made available to implement the

expanded Employment Eligibility Verification System, instead of one year after

enactment. CBO assumes that those funds would be appropriated near the start of

fiscal year 2007.
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Employment-Based Admissions and Exclusion of Certain Immigrants from Admissions

Limits. Title V would raise the cap on the number of legal permanent residents admitted

annually under the employment-based visa category and exclude certain immigrants from

counting against the annual limits on legal immigrants. CBO estimates that those provisions

would increase direct spending, primarily on Medicaid and Food Stamp benefits, by

$0.8 billion over the 2007-2016 period.

Annual Cap on Employment-Based Visas. The act would limit the number of employmentbased green cards issued annually to 650,000, plus any unused employment-based visas from

the prior year and the unused visas from 2001 through 2005. The 650,000 cap would apply

to both workers and their dependents; the unused visas from prior years would apply only

to workers. CBO estimates that these provisions would result in costs totaling $0.6 billion

over the 2007-2016 period.

By comparison, the corresponding provisions of S. 2611 as introduced would cost an

estimated $0.7 billion over 10 years. They would set a limit on employment-based green

cards of 450,000 per year, plus any unused employment-based visas from the prior year and

the unused visas from 2001 through 2005. Under the introduced bill, dependents would not

count against the cap at all.

Exclusion of Certain Immigrants from Limits. Relative to S. 2611 as introduced, the act

would expand the types of individuals who would no longer be subject to the annual limits

on legal immigrants. CBO anticipates that most of the immigrants who would be excluded

would have otherwise been eligible for employment-based green cards. We estimate that

costs for the additional immigrants under the Senate-passed act would total $0.2 billion over

the 2007-2016 period. Aliens who would no longer be subject to limits include those who:

• Hold a master’s degree or higher from an accredited university in the United States;

• Have an advanced degree in science, technology, engineering, math, or the sciences,

and who have been working in this country in a related field for three years on a nonimmigrant visa; 

• Are considered to have “extraordinary ability”, as defined in immigration law, in the

sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics, or to be an "outstanding professor";

• Work in a “shortage occupation” as designated by the Secretary of Labor;
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• Are defined as certain “special immigrants” under current immigration law—includes

some religious workers and their dependents, employees of the United States

government abroad or the Panama Canal Zone Government, and certain other groups;

• Receive a medical specialty certification after training in the United States; or

• Receive a national interest waiver.

Diversity Visas. S. 2611 as passed by the Senate would reduce the size of the diversity visa

program and eliminate the annual deadline for getting those visas. The introduced version

of the bill would not make any changes to the program. CBO estimates that this provision

would reduce spending for Medicaid, Supplemental Security Income, and Food Stamps by

$0.6 billion over the 2007-2016 period.

Under current law, 55,000 immigrant visas are available each year through the diversity visa

program. Those visas are available to citizens of countries that the Secretary of Homeland

Security determines have had relatively few immigrants admitted under the other sections

of immigration law. Individuals are selected by lottery and must meet minimum work or

education requirements and other conditions. Individuals who are selected in the lottery must

obtain their visa by the end of the fiscal year.

S. 2611 would reduce the number of diversity visas to 18,333 annually and reserve the

remaining 36,667 for immigrants with a master’s or doctorate degree in math, science, or

engineering. The act also would eliminate the deadline for diversity visas made available in

1998 and thereafter. Because more immigrants in this group would now be very highly

educated, we expect that more of them would be employed in high-skilled professions and

less likely to be eligible for means-tested benefits. Without the year-end deadline, CBO

estimates that all 55,000 visas will be issued each year.

Legalization of Undocumented Individuals. Title VI would allow certain undocumented

immigrants to either become legal permanent residents or achieve other legal status, most

likely as guest workers. CBO estimates that those provisions would increase direct spending,

primarily on Social Security and Medicare benefits, by $10.5 billion over the 2007-2016

period.

Relative to the bill as introduced, the act would require undocumented immigrants who are

eligible to gain legal immigration status to pay an additional fee of $750 for each principal

alien and $100 for each dependent. The Secretary of Health and Human Services would use

the amounts collected from the additional fees to award grants to states to provide health care

and education services to noncitizens.
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Compensation for Error. S. 2611 as passed by the Senate would establish an Employment

Eligibility Verification System (EEVS) to verify the eligibility of people for employment in

the United States. The act would require employers to fire employees who are determined

to be ineligible by the EEVS. The federal government would have to reimburse employees

for lost wages if they are fired as a result of an error in the application of EEVS.

CBO expects 55 million to 60 million annual EEVS inquiries once the system is fully phased

in, based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Relying on information from the

Department of Homeland Security (DHS), CBO anticipates very few EEVS errors that would

lead to compensation for lost wages, particularly for native-born workers. We estimate only

10 errors per million inquiries for native-born workers. For foreign-born workers, we project

that 0.4 percent of inquiries would initially generate compensable errors, and that data and

system improvements would reduce that rate to 0.025 percent by 2011. CBO expects that

affected employees would receive three months’ salary on average. Consequently, we

estimate total outlays of nearly $250 million over the first five years of the program, after

which annual outlays would decline to approximately $25 million.

Refundable Tax Credits. Over the 2007-2016 period, JCT estimates that S. 2611 would

increase outlays for refundable tax credits by $24.5 billion, the largest direct spending effect

of the bill. The earned income and child tax credits are refundable tax credits available to

individuals. Those two credits reduce a taxpayer's overall income tax liability; if the credits

exceed that liability, the excess may be refunded, with the amount of the refund depending

on the taxpayer's income. Those refunds are classified as outlays in the federal budget.

JCT’s estimate for the Senate-passed version of S. 2611 is nearly $5 billion lower than its

estimate for the introduced bill. This change largely reflects the smaller number of guest

workers.

Revisions to Estimating Methods. In addition to the legislative changes discussed above,

CBO made several revisions to the methods used to estimate the legislation’s impact on the

immigrant population and the federal budget. The most significant changes are summarized

below.

Dependents of Guest Workers. CBO’s estimate for the bill as introduced used data from the

Current Population Survey (CPS) to estimate that each guest worker would have an average

of 0.8 dependents. For this estimate, we raised that figure to 1.2 dependents, based on data

from the Office of Immigration Statistics (OIS) at the Department of Homeland Security

regarding individuals who receive employment-based green cards.

Fertility Rates. CBO has reduced its estimate of the average number of children that

immigrant women will have during their first 10 years after their arrival in the United States
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from 1.5 to 0.8. Based on data from the Census Bureau, we assumed for both estimates that

immigrant women will have an average of 2.5 children during their lives, so the change in

the birth rate during the first 10 years is a difference in timing, not in ultimate fertility.

Naturalization and Chain Migration. Noncitizens who have become LPRs or naturalized

citizens can sponsor certain relatives for green cards, a process sometimes known as “chain

migration.” The admission of many relatives is limited by the annual cap on familysponsored admissions, but the “immediate relatives” of U.S. citizens—spouses, minor

children, and parents—are admitted without limit. In particular, the exception for immediate

relatives is the only way that immigants can bring their parents to the United States

permanently.

As a result, CBO anticipates that some immigrants who become LPRs under the act would

later become naturalized citizens and sponsor their parents for green cards. (We believe the

sponsorship of relatives would be limited to parents because the immigrants affected by the

act would be able to immediately bring their spouses and children into the United States

without naturalizing.) Our estimate for the bill as introduced did not account for this

phenomenon.

Based on data from OIS on naturalization rates for undocumented immigrants who became

LPRs under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA), CBO estimates that

25 percent of agricultural workers, 40 percent of other undocumented immigrants, and

50 percent of conventional legal immigrants would become naturalized citizens within

10 years of gaining legal residency. Using administrative data on the number of green cards

awarded to parents of U.S. citizens, we estimate that about 15 percent of those who naturalize

would ultimately bring a parent to the United States. By 2016, we estimate that an additional

71,000 parents would obtain green cards under the act.

Number of Undocumented Immigrants Gaining Legal Status. CBO increased its estimate of

the number of undocumented immigrants who would get either Deferred Mandatory

Departure (DMD) status or a blue card. There is a great deal of uncertainty in estimating

how many undocumented immigrants would come forward and what types of documents

they would use to prove their eligibility for legal status. In particular, after IRCA was

enacted, many more agricultural workers were able to get LPR status than anticipated. Based

on this experience, we increased our estimate of the number of individuals who get DMD

status by almost 200,000 and the number of blue-card recipients by about 300,000.

Child Nutrition Programs. We anticipate that some of the children newly entering the United

States under the act would participate in the National School Lunch Program and the School

Breakfast Program, thus causing an increase in spending for child nutrition programs totaling
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an estimated $1.3 billion over 10 years. CBO’s estimate for the bill as introduced did not

include any effects on those programs.

Revenues

Enacting S. 2611 would have several effects on federal revenues, including changes in

collections of income and payroll taxes, certain visa fees that are classified as revenues, and

various fines and penalties. Taken together, the Joint Committee on Taxation and CBO

estimate that those effects would decrease federal revenues by about $79 billion over the

2007-2016 period. However, it appears that the effect of one tax provision would be

significantly different from what was intended; if the language were modified to reflect that

intent, JCT and CBO estimate that the act would increase revenues by about $44 billion over

the 2007-2016 period (see Table 6).

Income and Payroll Taxes. JCT provided estimates of the effects of S. 2611 on revenues

from income and social insurance (payroll) taxes. JCT estimates that S. 2611, as passed,

would reduce federal revenues from those sources each year through 2015, and increase

receipts in 2016. In total, over the 2007-2016 period, JCT estimates that receipts from

income and payroll taxes would fall by $80.3 billion, of which $49.6 billion would be offbudget revenues from Social Security taxes. If the language in the act were modified to

reflect legislative intent, JCT estimates that receipts from income and payroll taxes would

increase by $41.9 billion over the next 10 years. 

The large difference between the two revenue estimates results from subsection 601(b),

which would exempt employers from all civil and criminal tax liabilities arising from the

employment of aliens applying for an adjustment of status, without limiting the period to

which the exemption applies. This provision would reduce receipts of payroll taxes because

employers would not be required to pay such taxes for alien employees. Because the

legislation does not specify a period of exemption, for purposes of this estimate, JCT has

assumed that the exemption would have both a retroactive and prospective effect. Staff of

the Senate Judiciary Committee have indicated that the exemption was intended to apply

retroactively—to periods of employment prior to the filing of an application for adjustment

of status—but not prospectively to the period after the application is filed and until

adjustment of status is granted.

The net increase in revenue from provisions other than subsection 601(b) would occur largely

after 2011, due, in part, to higher numbers of immigrants, who would boost aggregate wage

income in the economy. That higher level of aggregate wages would generate more receipts

from both individual income and social insurance taxes. In addition, JCT anticipates that

enacting S. 2611 would lead to increased reporting of employment income, which would
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further add to receipts from income and social insurance taxes. However, the reporting of

that income would also result in larger tax deductions by businesses for their labor

compensation, which would reduce their profits. Because businesses operate in both

corporate and noncorporate form, those deductions would reduce both corporate and

individual income tax receipts, offsetting some of the increases discussed above.

H-2C Visa Fees and Blue Card Fines. CBO estimates that enacting S. 2611 as passed by

the Senate would increase revenues by about $1.7 billion over the 2007-2016 period from

fees and fines collected from applicants for temporary guest-worker visas and blue cards for

agricultural workers. (We estimated that enacting the introduced bill would increase

revenues from fees and fines by about $3.5 billion over the 10-year period. The decrease of

$1.8 billion would result from fewer guest-worker visas authorized by the Senate-passed

version.)

Spending Subject to Appropriation

CBO estimates that implementing S. 2611 as passed by the Senate would result in additional

discretionary spending of about $33 billion over the 2007-2011 period and another

$45 billion over the 2012-2016 period, assuming appropriation of the necessary funds.

Projected spending in the first five years is summarized in Table 7. For this estimate, we

assume that the necessary amounts will be appropriated by the start of each fiscal year and

that spending will follow the historical spending patterns for these or similar activities.

CBO’s estimate of the costs of implementing the act is about $8 billion higher over the 2007-

2011 period than its estimate for the bill as introduced. S. 2611 as passed by the Senate

contains virtually all of the provisions in the introduced version, plus several new ones. The

most significant additions are discussed below.

Additional Federal Personnel. The act would direct DHS to increase the number of border

patrol agents by 1,000 for fiscal year 2006. Because we assume that this legislation would

be enacted near the start of fiscal year 2007, we expect that this increase in agents would

apply to 2007. Based on information from DHS about the costs of additional agents,

including salaries, benefits, training, and support activities, CBO estimates that implementing

this provision would cost about $800 million over the 2007-2011 period. (The other

$9.6 billion in outlays under this heading in Table 7 would result from provisions that are

also in the introduced bill. They would direct DHS, the Department of Labor, the

Department of Justice, and the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts to increase the

number of law enforcement and legal personnel by a total of nearly 31,000 positions over the

2007-2011 period.)
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Detention Facilities. The act would direct DHS to construct or acquire 20 detention

facilities to detain aliens pending their removal from the United States. The legislation

would require these facilities to accommodate a total of at least 20,000 individuals at one

time. (S. 2611 as introduced would require these facilities to accommodate only 10,000

individuals at one time.) Based on information from the Bureau of Prisons, CBO estimates

that constructing and operating the larger facilities would cost $1.1 billion over the 2007-

2011 period, in addition to the $1.5 billion cost of the introduced bill.

Additional Border-Control Infrastructure. S. 2611 as passed by the Senate would direct

DHS to construct at least 370 miles of fencing and 500 miles of vehicle barriers along certain

areas of the U.S.-Mexico border. Based on information from DHS, CBO estimates that it

would cost about $3 million per mile to install the fencing and $1.3 million per mile to

construct the vehicle barriers. We therefore estimate that the fencing and vehicle barriers

would require funding of about $1.8 billion.

In addition, this new infrastructure would require maintenance in subsequent years. Based

on information from DHS, CBO estimates that maintenance costs would amount to about

15 percent of the initial cost of the infrastructure, or about $260 million annually, probably

beginning in 2010. Thus, we estimate that implementing these infrastructure provisions

would cost a total of nearly $2.3 billion over the 2007-2011 period, in addition to the

$1.0 billion cost for infrastructure of the introduced bill.

Employment Eligibility Verification System. S. 2611 as passed by the Senate would

establish an Employment Eligibility Verification System (EEVS) to verify the eligibility of

people for employment in the United States. CBO estimates that the system would cost about

$1.6 billion over the 2007-2011 period, including amounts needed by federal agencies to use

the system to verify eligibility for federal employment.

CBO’s estimate of the cost of EEVS is approximately $600 million higher than the estimate

for EEVS under S. 2611 as introduced. Two reasons underlie that change. First, S. 2611 as

passed adds a new requirement that employees provide previous employers’ Employer

Identification Numbers (EINs) as part of the eligibility verification process. Many

employees are likely to call the Social Security Administration (SSA) to obtain those

numbers. Based on information from SSA, CBO anticipates that the EIN provision would

cost the agency $400 million over the 2007-2011 period.

Second, a provision of S. 2611 would allow individuals to block and unblock inquiries on

their Social Security numbers. SSA was previously unable to estimate the workload

associated with that provision. But newly available data from the agency enabled CBO to

estimate that the blocking provision of S. 2611 would cost nearly $200 million over the next

five years.
15

Border-Control Aircraft and Watercraft. The act would direct DHS to acquire

100 helicopters and 250 powerboats. Based on information from the department, CBO

estimates that each helicopter would cost about $8 million and each powerboat about

$80,000. In addition, we estimate that it would cost about $200 million annually in

subsequent years to operate and maintain the helicopters and powerboats, including fuel and

personnel costs. Thus, CBO estimates that implementing this provision would cost a total

of about $1.4 billion over the 2007-2011 period.

Department of State Programs. S. 2611 would direct the Department of State to carry out

several programs. CBO estimates that implementing these programs would cost about

$600 million over the 2007-2011 period.

Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI). Section 135 would authorize the Department

of State to issue a new travel document known as a passport card (in lieu of existing passport

books) to United States citizens who wish to travel to Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, or

Bermuda. The act would establish a maximum application fee of $34 for the card, and waive

such fees for minors. Amounts collected by the department would be retained as offsetting

collections to cover the cost of processing the passport cards. However, the department

estimates it would cost $40 to process each card, thereby creating a shortfall of $6 for each

card issued to an adult and $40 for each card issued to a minor. Based on this information

and the department’s projections that it would need to issue about 4.5 million passport cards

in 2007 and about 3 million a year thereafter, CBO estimates this provision would cost about

$60 million in 2007 and about $270 million over the 2007-2011 period, assuming

appropriation of the necessary amounts. (Some people who obtain the new passport cards

would otherwise have applied for passport books. Consequently, this provision would result

in a small loss of revenues from passport fees.)

Section 135 would also require the department to implement an outreach plan to inform U.S.

citizens about the requirements of the WHTI, and to conduct demonstration programs in one

or more states on the feasibility of including citizenship status on drivers’ licenses and

allowing their use (in lieu of passports) for travel to Canada or Mexico. Based on

information from the department, CBO estimates those two programs would cost $25 million

in 2007 and $50 million over the 2007-2011 period, assuming appropriation of the necessary

amounts.

Investigative Authorities of Special Agents. Section 215 would enhance the authorities of the

Department of State’s special agents by allowing them to investigate identity theft or

document fraud relating to the department’s programs, human trafficking, and federal

offenses committed within the special maritime and territorial jurisdiction of the United

States. Based on information from the department that indicates it would need about

100 additional agents to meet the increased workload, CBO estimates this section would cost
16

$20 million in 2007 and $125 million over the 2007-2011 period, assuming appropriation of

the necessary amounts.

Intercountry Adoption Reform Act. Title VIII of the act would make several changes to the

adoption process for foreign-born children adopted by citizens of the United States. Section

811 would establish an Office of Intercountry Adoptions within the Department of State to

adjudicate petitions for adoptions, determine the eligibility of foreign-born children to be

adopted, support U.S. citizens who are prospective adoptive parents, and coordinate policy

on the adoption of foreign-born children by citizens of the United States. Section 821 would

provide automatic U.S. citizenship to adopted children born outside the United States. Based

on information from the department, CBO estimates this title would cost $24 million in 2007

and $132 million over the 2007-2011 period, assuming appropriation of the necessary

amounts.

Assistance to Mexico. Section 645 would authorize the Department of State to award a grant

to a land grant university in the United States to establish a program to reduce rural poverty

in Mexico. The program would match the university in the United States with the lead public

university in each of Mexico's 31 states to provide state-level coordination of rural poverty

programs. Based on information from the department, CBO estimates this provision would

cost $1 million in 2007 and $18 million over the 2007-2011 period, assuming appropriation

of the necessary amounts.

Section 114 would authorize the Department of State to assist Mexico in improving security

at its southern border with Guatemala and Belize. Based on information from the

department, CBO estimates this provision would cost $2 million a year, assuming

appropriation of the necessary amounts.

National Guard. Section 133 would authorize the governor of a state to order National

Guard units into title 32 status for the purpose of performing security-support functions along

the southern U.S. border until January 1, 2009. The Congress has already appropriated

$708 million to the Department of Defense (DoD) for this purpose through the end of fiscal

year 2007 as part of Public Law 109-234, the Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act

for Defense, the Global War on Terror, and Hurricane Recovery, 2006. The Administration

is planning to phase out the National Guard’s support activities in 2008 as additional Border

Patrol agents are hired. CBO estimates that DoD would incur additional costs of about

$500 million in 2008, based on the current appropriation adjusted downward to reflect the

decreasing National Guard support throughout that year.

Department of Labor. The increase in employment-based immigration and the creation of

an new, non-immigrant H-2C visa program would result in additional costs to the Department

of Labor (DOL) that would not be covered by fees provided for in the act. Some of those
17

costs would be offset by revisions to the H-2A visa program (for non-immigrant agricultural

workers) that would allow for fees to cover all costs of the program, including those that

would accrue to DOL. Based on estimates of the costs of the current labor certification

program at DOL, CBO estimates that administering the additional certifications that would

be necessary under this act would cost $50 million in 2007 and $280 million over the 2007-

2011 period, assuming appropriation of the necessary amounts. Assuming that the cost per

certification under the new H-2C program would be similar to the costs DOL now incurs

under the current H-2A program, CBO estimates that DOL spending would increase by

$25 million in 2007 and $160 million over the 2007-2011 period to administer that new

program. Those costs would be offset somewhat because DOL would be able to charge fees

for the current H-2A program. CBO estimates that provision would allow discretionary

resources provided to DOL to be reduced by about $30 million over the 2007-2011 period.

Other Programs. Section 235 would direct the Department of Justice (DOJ) to expand the

Justice Prisoner and Alien Transfer System, a program that assists in the removal of illegal

aliens from the country. Based on information from DOJ, CBO estimates that implementing

this provision would cost about $400 million over the 2007-2011 period. S. 2611 contains

several other provisions related to improving immigration programs; we estimate that it

would cost a total of less than $50 million over the 2007-2011 period to implement these

programs.

ESTIMATED IMPACT ON THE PRIVATE SECTOR

S. 2611 would impose private-sector mandates, as defined in UMRA, on employers and other

entities that hire, recruit, or refer individuals for employment. Those mandates would require

employers that are determined to be “critical” employers to verify the employment eligibility

of their current employees, and would require all employers and certain other entities to

verify the employment eligibility of new hires and maintain records of the verification

process. Those mandates are substantially similar to the private-sector mandates identified

in the cost estimate provided for the bill as introduced. (The mandates in the two versions

differ slightly in the implementation of the employee verification system and the retention

of records.) Based on the large number of projected new hires that employers and other

entities would be required to verify, CBO expects that the aggregate direct costs of the

mandates would exceed the annual threshold for private-sector mandates ($128 million in

2006, adjusted annually for inflation) in at least one of the first five years the mandates are

in effect.
18

ESTIMATED IMPACT ON STATE, LOCAL, AND TRIBAL GOVERNMENTS

This legislation would impose mandates on state, local, and tribal governments, and, in

addition, would lead to an increase in the U.S. population that would raise the costs of

various programs operated by those governments.

Intergovernmental Mandates

S. 2611, as passed by the Senate, would impose three new intergovernmental mandates, as

defined in UMRA, in addition to those mandates CBO identified in the introduced version

of the act. It would:

• Preempt some private rights of action currently available under state law for

temporary agricultural workers; 

• Preempt state insurance requirements by requiring some employers to purchase

insurance, in an amount to be determined by the Secretary of Labor, for vehicles used

to transport guest workers; and

• Require state and local governments to consult with communities in Mexico before

building fences or other security structures along the border.

CBO estimates that the costs for state and local governments to comply with those new

mandates would be small.

CBO previously identified two other provisions in S. 2611 as intergovernmental mandates

and has determined those mandates are substantively the same in both versions of the

legislation. The act would prohibit state and local governments from imposing fees or

penalties on employers for hiring unauthorized workers and from requiring those employers

to facilitate the employment of day laborers. Although no state or local government currently

collects such fees, this preemption could result in a loss of revenue for those governments

in the future. CBO estimates that any such loss would not be significant.

The requirement that employers verify the work eligibility of employees would apply to

state, local, and tribal governments. The costs to such governments of complying with those

mandates would depend on regulations to be developed by DHS. Depending on which

government entities the Secretary of DHS would designate as "critical," the costs to state,

local, and tribal governments could range from $30 million to $85 million in the first year

the requirements were in effect; they would total about $14 million annually in subsequent

years. Thus, CBO cannot determine whether the total costs to state, local, and tribal
19

governments to comply with all of the mandates in this act would exceed the annual

threshold established in UMRA ($64 million in 2006, adjusted annually for inflation).

Other Impacts on State, Local, and Tribal Governments

Several provisions in the act would increase the number of legal permanent residents, some

of whom would be eligible for Medicaid assistance. Benefits under the Medicaid program

for those individuals would cost states almost $11 billion over the 2007-2016 period.

Because states have broad flexibility to alter optional benefits and eligibility to offset such

costs, the increased spending would not result from an intergovernmental mandate as defined

in UMRA.

By 2016, S. 2611 would lead to an increase of an estimated 6.5 million in the U.S.

population. As a result of this growth in population, some state, local, and tribal

governments would collect more tax revenues and face significant costs to provide education,

heath care, and other services to those immigrants. The act, as passed by the Senate, would

direct certain fees collected from non-citizens to state and local governments. As a result,

CBO estimates that those governments would receive about $3 billion over the fiscal years

2007-2011 to provide health care and education to those immigrants. In addition, assuming

appropriation of the authorized amounts, those governments would receive more than

$12 billion over the fiscal years 2007-2012 from the creation of other grant programs and the

extension of current programs to reimburse some of those costs.

ESTIMATED LONG-TERM EFFECTS ON DIRECT SPENDING

Pursuant to section 407 of H. Con. Res 95 (the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget, Fiscal

Year 2006), CBO estimates that enacting S. 2611 would cause an increase in direct spending

greater than $5 billion in each of the 10-year periods between 2016 and 2055. CBO expects

that the costs for benefit programs such as Medicaid, Food Stamps, Social Security, and

Medicare would continue to grow after 2016, both because of the new legal immigrants who

would enter the United States by 2016 and because of the continuing flow of new legal

immigrants in the decades after 2016.

PREVIOUS CBO ESTIMATES

On May 16, 2006, CBO transmitted a cost estimate for S. 2611, the Comprehensive

Immigration Reform Act of 2006, as introduced on April 7, 2006. CBO and JCT estimated

that enacting the legislation would increase direct spending by $54 billion and federal
20

revenues by $66 billion over the 2007-2016 period. We also estimated that discretionary

spending would increase by $25 billion over the 2007-2011 period, assuming appropriation

of the amounts authorized in the bill. The estimate for the Senate-passed legislation reflects

differences in the legislative language, some refinements in our estimating methodology, and

JCT’s identification of the apparent drafting error in subsection 601(b) of the act.

On May 24, 2006, CBO sent a letter to Senator Jeff Sessions that provided additional detail

on its May 16 cost estimate for S. 2611.

ESTIMATE PREPARED BY:

Department of Homeland Security: Mark Grabowicz

Department of State: Sunita D’Monte

Child Nutrition and Food Stamps: Kathleen FitzGerald

Medicaid: Eric Rollins and Jeanne De Sa

Compensation for Error, Social Security Administration, and Supplemental Security Income:

David Rafferty

Student Loans: Deborah Kalcevic

Unemployment Compensation and Department of Labor:

Christina Hawley Anthony

Revenues: Mark Booth

Impact on State, Local, and Tribal Governments: Melissa Merrell

Impact on the Private Sector: Paige Piper/Bach

ESTIMATE APPROVED BY: 

Robert A. Sunshine

Assistant Director for Budget Analysis
21

TABLE 3. ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF S. 2611, AS PASSED BY THE SENATE, ON DIRECT SPENDING BY

PROGRAM

Outlays By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2007-

2016

Refundable Tax Credits a * 1.3 3.1 3.7 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.5 24.5

Medicaid 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.9 11.7

Social Security (off-budget) * 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 5.2

Medicare 0 0 * 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 3.7

Food Stamps * * * 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 2.4

Child Nutrition * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.3

Compensation for Error * 0.1 0.1 * * * * * * * 0.4

Supplemental Security Income * * * * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3

Unemployment Insurance 0 0 0 * * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.2

Student Loans * * * * * * * * * * 0.1

Visa Fees -1.9 -3.0 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -1.2

Total -1.8 -1.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 5.2 5.6 6.4 7.1 8.5 48.4

On-budget -1.8 -1.4 5.9 5.9 5.8 4.6 4.9 5.6 6.2 7.4 43.3

Off-budget * 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 5.2

NOTES: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

* = Costs or savings of less than $50 million.

a. Refundable tax credits include the outlay portion of the earned income and child tax credits.
22

TABLE 4. ESTIMATED EFFECTS ON DIRECT SPENDING OF S. 2611, AS PASSED BY THE SENATE

Outlays By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2007-

2016

Guest-Worker Program

Food Stamps 0 * * * * * * * * * 0.2

Medicaid 0 * 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 3.9

Medicare 0 0 0 0 * * * * * * *

Visa Fees 0 * * * -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5

Other a 0 * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5

 Subtotal 0 * 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 4.1

Family-Sponsored Admissions

Food Stamps * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.0

Medicaid * 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 4.7

Medicare 0 0 0 * * * * * * * *

Visa Fees * * * * 0 0 0 0 0 0 *

Other a * * * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4

 Subtotal * 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 6.1

Employment-Based Admissions

Food Stamps * * * * * * * * * 0.1 0.2

Medicaid * * * * * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.2

Medicare 0 0 0 * * * * * * * *

Visa Fees * 0 * 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 *

Other a * * * * * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.2

 Subtotal * * * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6

Exclusion of Certain Immigrants from

Admissions Limits

Child Nutrition * * * * * * * * * * 0.1

Medicare 0 0 0 * * * * * * * *

Social Security 0 * * * * * * * * * 0.1

Supplemental Security Income ***********

Visa Fees * 0 * * 0 0 0 0 0 0 *

 Subtotal * * * * * * * * * 0.1 0.2

Diversity Visas

Food Stamps * * * * * * * * * * -0.1

Medicaid * * * * * * -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5

Supplemental Security Income 0 * * * * * * * * * *

 Subtotal * * * * * * -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6

Continued
23

TABLE 4. CONTINUED

Outlays By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2007-

2016

Legalization of Undocumented

Immigrants

Food Stamps * * * * * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.3

Medicaid * 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.7

Medicare 0 0 * 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 3.4

Social Security (off-budget) * 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 4.7

Supplemental Security Income * * * * * * * * * * 0.1

Unemployment Insurance 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0.2

Visa Fees -1.8 -2.9 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.3 0 0 0 0 *

 Subtotal -1.8 -2.7 2.6 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 10.5

Blue-Card Program

Food Stamps * * * * * * 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9

Medicaid * * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.6

Medicare 0 0 0 * * * * * * * 0.1

Visa Fees * * * * * * * 0 0 0 *

Other a * * * * * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6

 Subtotal * 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 3.1

Conditional Status for

Undocumented Students

Food Stamps 00000******

Medicaid 0 0 0 0 0 * * * * * 0.1

 Subtotal 0 0 0 0 0 * * * * * 0.1

Additional H-1B Visas and Persons

with Advanced Degrees -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 * * * -0.6

Compensation for Error * 0.1 0.1 * * * * * * * 0.4

Refundable Tax Credits b

(Effects of all programs) * 1.3 3.1 3.7 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.5 24.5

Total Changes in Direct Spending -1.8 -1.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 5.2 5.6 6.4 7.1 8.5 48.4

NOTES: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

* = Costs or savings of less than $50 million.

a. "Other" includes effects on child nutrition, Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, unemployment insurance, and student loans.

b. Refundable tax credits include the outlay portion of the earned income and child tax credits.
24

TABLE 5. ESTIMATED INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS IN FEDERAL BENEFIT PROGRAMS

UNDER S. 2611, AS PASSED BY THE SENATE

By Fiscal Year, in Thousands

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Child Nutrition 50 190 320 370 420 460 490 540 610 700

Food Stamps 10 20 50 70 100 170 330 460 570 690

Medicaid

Newly eligible for emergency services 30 140 240 300 340 380 400 410 430 430

Newly eligible for non-emergency

services 0 0 0 0 0 10 60 100 130 170

Newly eligible for full benefits * 20 50 70 100 140 210 280 360 460

 Total, Medicaid 30 160 290 370 440 530 670 790 920 1,060

Social Security * 20 30 50 50 60 70 80 90 110

Medicare 0 0 * 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Student Loans * * 10 20 20 30 30 30 30 30

Supplemental Security Income 0 * * * * * 10 10 10 10

Unemployment Compensation 0 0 0 * * * * * 20 40

NOTES: The figures in this table are fiscal-year averages. The categories of Medicaid enrollees are mutually exclusive and can be added together.

The individuals who would be newly eligible for emergency services include current participants who would receive additional benefits

under the act. The figures for the various programs are not additive because individuals can receive benefits from more than one program.

* = less than 5,000.
25

TABLE 6. ESTIMATED EFFECTS ON REVENUES OF S. 2611, AS PASSED BY THE SENATE

By Fiscal Year, in Billions of Dollars

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2007-

2016

Income and Social

Insurance Taxes a -5.7 -6.9 -15.4 -18.1 -16.5 -10.2 -8.1 -6.4 -0.1 7.0 -80.3

H2-C Visa Fees 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.3

Blue Card Fines * 0.1 * 0.1 0.2 * 0 0 0 0 0.4

Total Changes -5.7 -6.7 -15.3 -17.9 -16.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.2 * 7.2 -78.5

On-Budget -1.4 1.7 -5.4 -8.4 -8.1 -3.8 -2.9 -2.3 0.1 1.6 -28.9

Off-Budget -4.3 -8.3 -9.9 -9.5 -8.0 -6.2 -5.0 -3.9 -0.1 5.6 -49.6

Memorandum:

Estimated Changes in Revenues Based on the Act’s Intent as Conveyed by Staff.

Income and Social

Insurance Taxes a -1.8 4.9 1.2 -0.7 -0.1 4.8 6.2 6.9 9.4 11.0 41.9

H2-C Visa Fees 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 1.3

Blue Card Fines * 0.1 * 0.1 0.2 * 0 0 0 0 0.4

Total Changes -1.8 5.1 1.3 -0.5 0.3 5.0 6.3 7.1 9.6 11.1 43.6

On-Budget -0.8 3.3 -3.2 -6.2 -6.0 -1.9 -1.2 -0.7 1.3 2.0 -13.6

Off-Budget -0.9 1.8 4.5 5.7 6.4 7.0 7.5 7.7 8.4 9.1 57.2

SOURCES: Joint Committee on Taxation and Congressional Budget Office.

NOTE: * = gain of less than $50 million.

a. These estimates were provided by the Joint Committee on Taxation and include effects on off-budget (Social Security) receipts. Related effects

on outlays for refundable credits are shown in Table 3.
26

TABLE 7. ESTIMATED EFFECTS ON DISCRETIONARY SPENDING OF S. 2611, AS PASSED BY THE SENATE

By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

CHANGES IN SPENDING SUBJECT TO APPROPRIATION

Grants to State and Local Governments a

Authorization Level 1,655 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,200

Estimated Outlays 414 1,162 1,904 2,090 2,165

Additional Federal Personnel

Estimated Authorization Level 466 1,326 2,141 2,992 4,035

Estimated Outlays 404 1,203 2,013 2,856 3,877

Detention Facilities

Estimated Authorization Level 2,400 0 50 100 103

Estimated Outlays 240 960 1,125 215 103

Programs to Improve Port Security a

Estimated Authorization Level 185 188 190 193 196

Estimated Outlays 118 159 189 192 195

Border-Control Infrastructure

Estimated Authorization Level 2,631 0 0 395 407

Estimated Outlays 921 1,184 526 257 376

Funding for DHS to Expand Immigration Adjudication

Services a

Estimated Authorization Level 800 0 0 0 0

Estimated Outlays 640 160 0 0 0

System for Verifying Employment Eligibility

Estimated Authorization Level 228 341 379 339 348

Estimated Outlays 203 326 375 343 347

Other Social Security Administration Costs

Estimated Authorization Level 173 125 39 39 50

Estimated Outlays 152 131 50 39 48

Grants to Assist Nonimmigrants a

Estimated Authorization Level 200 200 200 175 175

Estimated Outlays 44 104 144 169 187

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles a

Authorization Level 178 276 0 0 0

Estimated Outlays 89 192 118 55 0

Reimbursement of Prosecution Costs a

Estimated Authorization Level 78 79 80 81 82

Estimated Outlays 20 51 79 80 81

Continued
27

TABLE 7. CONTINUED

By Fiscal Year, in Millions of Dollars

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Border Patrol Aircraft and Watercraft

Estimated Authorization Level 820 65 130 200 206

Estimated Outlays 274 334 384 190 205

Department of State Programs

Estimated Authorization Level 169 141 115 110 111

Estimated Outlays 132 133 114 114 112

National Guard

Estimated Authorization Level 0 500 0 0 0

Estimated Outlays 0 350 100 50 0

Department of Labor

Estimated Authorization Level 89 88 68 68 123

Estimated Outlays 71 84 73 68 113

Other Programs

Estimated Authorization Level 228 299 317 322 288

Estimated Outlays b -55a -233 403 612 468

Total Changes

Estimated Authorization Level 10,301 5,627 5,809 7,212 8,322

Estimated Outlays 3,667 6,299 7,598 7,330 8,276

NOTE: DHS = Department of Homeland Security.

a. The estimated costs of this provision are the same as for the introduced bill. For details on those costs, see CBO’s May 16 cost estimate for that

version of the legislation.

b. Section 644 would establish a new $500 fee for persons who receive immigration benefits under title VI of the legislation. Both the collection

and spending of these fees would be subject to appropriation action. Because spending would lag behind collections, this provision would reduce

net outlays in 2007 and 2008.