THE U.S. PHASEOUT OF HCFCS: 

PROJECTED SERVICING NEEDS IN THE U.S. 

AIR-CONDITIONING AND REFRIGERATION SECTOR 

Prepared for 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Office of Air and Radiation 

Stratospheric Protection Division 

1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 

Washington, DC 20460 

Prepared by 

ICF International 

1725 Eye Street, NW 

Washington, DC 20006 

FINAL REPORT, DECEMBER 2009
This report estimates the quantity of HCFC-22 (also recognized by the American 

Society of Heating Refrigerating and Air- Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) 

designation, R-22) needed to service air-conditioning and refrigeration equipment 

and the anticipated installed base of such equipment beyond 2010 in the United 

States. The report also discusses the uses and demand for other HCFCs. This 

analysis has been developed to assist in the allocation of HCFC consumption 

allowances. The analyses presented in this report were first made available for 

comment in a Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 70 FR 67172) and request for 

comment issued on November 4, 2005. Revisions to the analysis were made in 

September 2006 and a revised report was made available for comment at a 

stakeholder meeting held in Washington DC, at EPA Headquarters. A third draft 

of this report was then issued in June 2008 in support of the proposed rule 

“Adjustments to the Allowance System for Controlling HCFC Production, Import, 

and Export” (2010 allocation rule) (December 23, 2008; 73 FR 78680). This final 

report reflects comments received after January 7, 2009, and include a summary 

and analysis of the final R-22 allocations set by EPA for 2010 through 2014. A 

more detailed description of notable updates and additions can be found in the 

document, “Recalculations and Notable Revisions to the Report: The U.S. 

Phaseout of HCFCs: Projected Servicing Needs in the U.S. Air-Conditioning and 

Refrigeration Sector.” 

Questions concerning this report should be directed to: 

Jeremy Arling 

Stratospheric Protection Division 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (6205J) 

Washington, D.C. 20460 

1-202-343-9055 (phone) 

1-202-343-2338 (fax) 

Arling.jeremy@epa.gov 
Contents 

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1

1. Background: The U.S. HCFC Phaseout Schedule............................................................................. 4 

1.1 Report Objective .............................................................................................................................. 5

2. Methodology Overview ........................................................................................................................ 6

3. Overview of HCFC Use in the United States ...................................................................................... 8

3.1 Projected HCFC Demand ................................................................................................................ 8

3.2 HCFCs Other than HCFC-22 ........................................................................................................... 9

3.2.1 HCFC Use in Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning .................................................................. 10

4. Projected R-22 Scenarios .................................................................................................................. 14

4.1 R-22 Equipment Used Beyond 2010 ............................................................................................. 14

4.2 Projected R-22 Servicing Needs .................................................................................................... 14

4.2.1 R-22 Sources......................................................................................................................... 16

4.2.2 Meeting R-22 Service Demand ............................................................................................. 17

4.2.3 EPA’s Allocations of R-22 for 2010 through 2014 ................................................................. 21

4.3 Factors Affecting Projections ......................................................................................................... 22

4.3.1 13 Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (SEER) ....................................................................... 22

4.3.2 Transitioning to Alternative Refrigerants ............................................................................... 23

4.3.3 Recovery and Reuse Practices ............................................................................................. 24

4.3.4 Recycling and Stockpiling Plans ........................................................................................... 25

4.3.5 R-22 Economics .................................................................................................................... 26

4.3.6 Pre-charged Imports .............................................................................................................. 26

5. Conclusion .......................................................................................................................................... 27

Appendix A: Methodology Used to Calculate Projected Servicing Needs ......................................... 29

A.1 EPA’s Vintaging Model .............................................................................................................. 29

A.2 Limitations and Caveats ............................................................................................................ 35

Appendix B: HCFC Projections by End-Use .......................................................................................... 37

Appendix C: Additional “Recovery Rate” Scenarios ............................................................................ 39

6. References .......................................................................................................................................... 43
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Projected Servicing Needs in the U.S. Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Sector 

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Executive Summary 

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are a class of chemical compounds that deplete the stratospheric 

ozone layer, leading to overexposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the earth’s surface. Excessive UV 

radiation damages biological systems and causes malignant melanoma and other skin cancers, 

cataracts, and harm to certain crops and marine organisms. Reversing the course of stratospheric ozone 

depletion is crucial to human and environmental health worldwide. As a Party to the Montreal Protocol on 

Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol), the United States is subject to a cap on 

the consumption of HCFCs—defined as production1

 plus imports minus exports—in an international effort 

to protect the stratospheric ozone layer (UNEP 2000). Specifically, the United States is obligated to 

phase out production and consumption of HCFCs by 2030 by making graduated reductions in HCFC 

production and consumption by certain dates. To meet these interim reduction targets, the U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established a schedule for the phaseout of HCFCs starting with 

those with the highest ozone depletion potentials (ODPs), namely HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, and HCFC22.2

 EPA phased out consumption of HCFC-141b in 2003. The next phaseout milestone occurs on 

January 1, 2010, when the production and import of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 (except for use in 

equipment manufactured prior to January 1, 2010) will cease. Under the restrictions, between 2010 and 

2020, both the production and import of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 will still be permitted to service 

existing equipment. 

In the United States and worldwide, the primary use of HCFC-22 is as a refrigerant, whereas the primary 

use of HCFC-142b is as a blowing agent in the foam industry (UNEP 2003a). While HCFC-142b is also 

blended with other constituents to form refrigerant blends, its use in the U.S. air-conditioning (AC) and 

refrigeration industry is minimal, and therefore servicing demand for HCFC-142b3

 is not presented in this 

analysis. However, a brief section discussing the basic needs for HCFC-142b and other HCFCs is 

provided. Estimated consumption of R-22 in the U.S. AC and refrigeration industry totaled approximately 

108,000 metric tons in 2008 and is by far the largest use of an HCFC by any U.S. industry (EPA 2007a). 

For this reason, and because the allowable servicing of existing equipment between 2010 and 2020 is 

applicable primarily to the AC and refrigeration industry, this report presents estimates of the projected 

quantity of R-22 needed to service AC and refrigeration equipment and the anticipated installed base of 

such equipment beyond 2010. In quantifying future servicing needs and evaluating how these needs can 

be met, the objective of this analysis is to provide a resource to assist in the allocation of production and 

consumption allowances. 

This report examines the primary sources of R-22 to service the installed base of equipment after 2010, 

including (1) the amounts recovered from equipment that are subsequently recycled or reclaimed for 

reuse and (2) the virgin production and import quantities (i.e., consumption) limited under the Montreal 

Protocol that may be distributed by EPA through an allowance system.4

 Five supply and demand 

scenarios were analyzed that differ by the quantity of R-22 recovered from equipment at the end-of-life 

and available to service other equipment still in use. Recovery scenarios representing 10, 15, 20, 50, and 

75 percent are presented. For example, “Scenario 10” assumes that 10 percent of refrigerant is 

recovered and available for reuse at equipment end-of-life. In addition, the allocations for R-22 as issued 

in EPA’s Final Rule are presented for comparison purposes. 

In September 2007, the United States and other Parties to the Montreal Protocol agreed to strengthen the 

phaseout schedule for HCFCs in both developed and developing countries. One result of this agreement 

is that in 2010, the U.S. HCFC production and consumption must be reduced by 75 percent of their 

respective baselines. The 2010 production cap represents a new commitment under the Montreal 

1

 Under the Montreal Protocol, production is defined as “the amount of controlled substances produced, minus the amount 

destroyed...and minus the amount entirely used as feedstock in the manufacture of other chemicals. The amount recycled and 

reused is not to be considered as production” (UNEP 2000). 2

 An ODP value is a measure of a chemical’s relative ability to deplete stratospheric ozone. A reference level of 1.0 is assigned to 

CFC-11. 

3

 The nomenclature ‘R’ is typically used to designate chemical compounds used as a refrigerant. Hence, R-22 is synonymous with 

the use of HCFC-22 as a refrigerant, R-142b with the use of HCFC-142b as a refrigerant, etc. 

4

 The import of used R-22 as approved by EPA is another potential source; however, this source is not included in the projections of 

this analysis.

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Protocol, whereas for the 2010 consumption cap the agreement results in an additional 10 percent of a 

reduction than the previous phaseout commitment. The scenarios in this report are analyzed in 

comparison to the adjusted 2010 reduction step. 

In accordance with the Montreal Protocol commitments, in 2010 EPA can allocate consumption 

allowances for no more than 3,810 ODP-weighted metric tons of HCFCs. The quantity of 3,810 ODPweighted metric tons equates to 69,273 metric tons of HCFC-22. This analysis projects that HCFC-22 

demand in 2010 will be approximately 62,500 metric tons—equivalent to 3,438 ODP-weighted metric 

tons, and approximately 372 ODP-weighted tons below the cap in 2010. Figure ES-1 summarizes 

servicing demand in comparison to the U.S. HCFC consumption cap, and the total allocation amounts 

from 2010 to 2014 as promulgated by EPA in the 2010 HCFC Allocation final rule. The remainder of 

service demand not supplied by R-22 allocations, which must instead be met through recovered R-22, is 

also illustrated. 

Figure ES-1: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand and EPA’s 2010-2014 Allocations 

of HCFC-22a 

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HCFC-22 (MT)

Recovered R-22 Needed to Satisfy

Remainder of Service Demand

R-22 Allocation Amount 

Total R-22 Service Demand 

U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

a U.S. HCFC consumption cap expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 

0.055 for HCFC-22).

The R-22 consumption allocations set by EPA for years 2010 to 2014 decrease annually, resulting in 

recovered material comprising a greater proportion of the supply required to meet total demand each 

year. As such, the percentage of the total need to be met with reclaimed material will rise from 20 

percent to 29 percent of total demand in 2014, which is intended to help facilitate the industry’s ability to 

meet the estimated demand in 2015, of which at least 29 percent must be met with recovered material. 

The annual decrease in allowable virgin R-22 will enable a smooth transition for the AC and refrigeration 

industry as it should foster greater recovery and reclamation of R-22. 

As shown in Figure ES-1, the AC and refrigeration industry could experience shortages in 2015 if only 

newly manufactured refrigerants will be used to meet overall demand. To that end, this analysis consists 

of an evaluation of the role of reused refrigerants when considering the servicing tail need for virgin 

refrigerants.5

 Thus, the scenarios presented in this analysis assume a mix of recovered and newly 

manufactured refrigerant to satisfy future R-22 servicing needs. As with previous phaseouts (i.e., CFCs) 

 

5

 Recovered refrigerant may be recycled and reused in the same owner’s equipment; however, if the refrigerant will be used in 

equipment with different ownership or sold to a new owner, it must first be reclaimed by an EPA-certified refrigerant reclaimer. 

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recovery of used refrigerant from converted or retired equipment returned to the supply chain is 

necessary to avoid supply shortfalls. 

In addition to recovery practices, several other factors influence which R-22 demand scenario is more 

likely. For example, with approximately 150 million AC and refrigeration units projected to be in use in 

2010, the sooner equipment transitions to alternative refrigerants, the better the chance for an adequate 

R-22 supply to satisfy the forecasted demand. This report explores the following market trends and how 

they may influence future R-22 servicing demand and available supply estimates, including: 

• the rate of market transition to alternative refrigerants in the United States; 

• R-22 cost; 

• assumed equipment leak and servicing loss rates; 

• levels of refrigerant recovery for reuse, reclamation, and/or banking; 

• levels of imports of used R-22; and 

• potential future quantities of R-22 that could be obtained from interpollutant transfers of 

allowances. 

The analysis presented in this report uses EPA’s Vintaging Model (EPA 2007a) in conjunction with 

industry collaboration to inform the quantitative estimates on projected servicing needs. The factors listed 

above influence supply and demand and are addressed in the quantitative analysis with the exception of 

R-22 cost, refrigerant banking, and levels of imports of used R-22. 

This report provides the basis for further collaboration between EPA and the AC and refrigeration 

community to ensure that supplies (through reuse) are increased in order to continue to service 

equipment and achieve the next HCFC phaseout targets without refrigerant shortages.
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Projected Servicing Needs in the U.S. Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Sector 

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1. Background: The U.S. HCFC Phaseout Schedule 

Title VI of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) mandates the development and implementation 

of regulations to protect the stratospheric ozone layer and ensure U.S. compliance with the Montreal 

Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (the Montreal Protocol). Under the Montreal 

Protocol, the United States and other signatories are obligated to achieve progress toward the total 

phaseout of the consumption and production of HCFCs, which are ozone-depleting substances (ODS) 

and have been widely used as refrigerants, solvents, foam blowing agents, and fire suppressants.6

 

Consumption is defined as production plus imports minus exports; production is defined as the 

manufacture of a controlled substance minus amounts destroyed and amounts completely used as 

feedstock in the manufacture of other chemicals and does not include amounts reused or recycled (UNEP 

2000). 

In September 2007, the nineteenth Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol was held in Montreal, 

Canada, marking the 20th anniversary of the signing of the Protocol. At the meeting, the Parties agreed 

upon a strengthened phaseout of HCFCs. The adjustments call for Article 2 countries—the Protocol’s 

identifying term for developed countries—to reduce HCFC production and consumption from baseline 

amounts by 75 percent by 2010, 90 percent by 2015, and 99.5 percent by 2020—allowing for 0.5 percent 

of the baseline for annual servicing over the period 2020-2030.7

 Previously, the 2010 reduction step was 

65 percent and was limited solely to consumption, not production. 

Table 1-1 presents the HCFC consumption baseline and the graduated reductions (caps) to allowable 

HCFC consumption for the United States (and all Article 2 countries). 

Table 1-1. U.S. HCFC Consumption Phaseout Schedule Under the Montreal Protocol 

Date Consumption Cap ODP Weighted Metric 

Tonsa

Quantity Expressed in 

R-22 Metric Tonsb 

Jan 1, 1996 

Baseline set at 2.8% of the 1989 ODP-weighted 

CFC consumption plus 100% of the 1989 ODPweighted HCFC consumption 15,240 277,091 

Jan 1, 2004 35% reduction from the baseline 9,906 180,109 

Jan 1, 2010 75% reduction from the baseline 3,810 69,273 

Jan 1, 2015 90% reduction from the baseline 1,524 27,709 

Jan 1, 2020 99.5% reduction from the baseline 76.2 0 c 

Jan 1, 2030 100% reduction from the baseline 0 0 aAn ODP-weighted metric ton takes into account each ODS’ relative contribution to ozone depletion. One metric ton equals approximately 

2,204 pounds. 

bCalculated using an ODP of 0.055 for HCFC-22. 

 cIn 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains, but the U.S. phaseout schedule prevents any allocation to R-22. 

Table 1-2 details the U.S. phaseout schedule for HCFCs established under the 1990 CAAA to comply 

with the targets set by the Montreal Protocol (as presented in Table 1-1). The production and import of 

HCFC-141b, the HCFC with the highest ODP, was phased out with limited exemptions on January 1, 

2003. Beginning in 2003, EPA established an allowance system to control the U.S. production and 

consumption (including import and export) of HCFCs and to apportion consumption allowances amongst 

HCFCs. An allowance is the privilege for the allowance holder to produce and/or import a quantity on an 

annual basis limited to the allowance granted. Production and consumption allowances for HCFC-141b 

(for limited exemptions), HCFC-22, and HCFC-142b were authorized and distributed (on a kilogram basis) 

 

6

 The production and import of other ODS used by these industries, including chlorofluorocarbons, carbon tetrachloride, and methyl 

chloroform, were phased out in 1996 – halons in 1994 (with limited exemptions). 

7

 Article 5 countries—the Protocol’s identifying term for developing countries—follow a later phaseout schedule than Article 2 

countries and as a result of the agreement in 2007 are subject to reduction steps of 10 percent by 2015, 35 percent by 2020, 67.5 

percent by 2025, and allowing for servicing at an annual average of 2.5 percent from 2030-2040. 

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to certain companies (EPA 2003a).8

 Therefore, as of 2003, only those companies with allowances were 

allowed to produce and/or import these HCFCs. 

Table 1-2: U.S. HCFC Phaseout Schedule Mandated Under the 1990 CAAA 

(to Comply with the Protocol) 

Date Restriction 

Jan 1, 2003 • Ban on production and import of HCFC-141b. 

Jan 1, 2010 • Ban on production and import of HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b except for on-going servicing needs 

in equipment manufactured before January 1, 2010.a

Jan 1, 2015 

• Ban on the production, import, and introduction into interstate commerce or use of HCFCs 

except where the HCFCs are used as a refrigerant in equipment manufactured prior to January 

1, 2020.a

Jan 1, 2020 • Ban on remaining production and import of HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b.a

Jan 1, 2030 • Ban on remaining production and import of all other HCFCs.a

aCertain additional exemptions apply, including exemptions for (1) HCFCs used in processes resulting in their transformation or 

destruction, or (2) pre-authorized import of HCFCs that are recovered and either recycled or reclaimed.

Source: EPA (2003a); EPA (2007b). 

Beginning January 1, 2010, U.S. production and import of HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, and HCFC-22 will be 

limited to use in equipment manufactured prior to January 1, 2010, or where additional exemptions apply. 

The final phaseout for HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b is on January 1, 2020, and for all other HCFCs on 

January 1, 2030. Production and consumption allowances must be granted under the allowance system. 

EPA evaluated the amount of HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b necessary for servicing as well as the need for 

other HCFCs to ensure that the permitted level for all HCFCs does not exceed the U.S.’s international 

obligation to reduce the production and consumption levels to 75 percent below the respective baseline 

levels in 2010. In addition, EPA considered the amount of HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b needed to meet 

servicing needs of existing equipment. The actual allocated amounts of HCFCs by chemical can be found 

in the final rulemaking. 

1.1 Report Objective 

This report presents quantitative estimates of the projected amount of (a) units of equipment using HCFC22 beyond 2010 in the United States and (b) HCFC-22 needed to service equipment beyond 2010 in the 

United States. It estimates R-22 consumption needs for air-conditioning (AC) and refrigeration equipment 

(the largest HCFC market and the largest industry sector using HCFCs) that will be in use after 2010 and 

possible future scenarios to meet those needs. This final version additionally contains an analysis of 

EPA’s allocated amount for the 2010-2014 control periods. This analysis also explores, in a limited way, 

demand for HCFC-142b and other HCFCs. The remainder of the report is organized as follows: 

• Section 2 provides a brief overview of the methodology used to project servicing scenarios. 

• Section 3 provides an overview of HCFC use in the United States, including projected demand of 

HCFCs, and an overview of HCFC use other than HCFC-22 in the AC and refrigeration sector. 

• Section 4 provides two projected recovery scenarios and resulting R-22 consumption needs as 

well as an analysis of EPA’s 2010-2014 allocation. 

• Section 5 summarizes the key findings of the analysis. 

• Appendix A presents further information on the projection methodology and its limitations. 

• Appendix B provides AC and refrigeration projections by end-use. 

• Appendix C provides estimates of R-22 consumption needs based on projected minimum and 

maximum recovery rates of R-22 for servicing equipment.

 

8

 The production of one kilogram of HCFC requires the expenditure of one production allowance and one consumption allowance. 

The import of one kilogram of HCFC requires the expenditure of one consumption allowance. While the import of used HCFCs does 

not require the expenditure of allowances, it does require petition approval by EPA; see Section 4.2.1 for more detail. 
The U.S Phaseout of HCFCs: 

Projected Servicing Needs in the U.S. Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Sector 

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2. Methodology Overview 

EPA’s Vintaging Model is the primary tool used to perform the analysis and form the basis for quantitative 

estimates of current and projected HCFC consumption. The Vintaging Model estimates the annual 

chemical emissions from industry sectors that have historically used ODS, including AC, refrigeration, 

foams, solvents, aerosols, and fire protection. Within these industry sectors, there are over 50 

independently modeled end-uses. The model uses information on the market size and growth for each 

end-use, as well as a history and projections of the market transition from ODS to alternatives. As ODS 

are phased out, a percentage of the market share originally filled by the ODS is allocated to each of its 

substitutes. The model tracks emissions of annual “vintages” of new equipment that enter into operation 

by incorporating information on estimates of the quantity of equipment or products sold, serviced, and 

retired or retrofitted each year, and the quantity of the compound required to manufacture, charge, and/or 

maintain the equipment. EPA’s Vintaging Model uses this market information to build an annual inventory 

of in-use stocks of equipment and the ODS and non-ODS substitutes in each end-use. 

According to EPA’s Vintaging Model, the AC and refrigeration industry currently represents 97 percent (by 

mass) of HCFC-22 consumption and 88 percent (by mass) of total HCFC consumption. Other HCFCs are 

explored in a limited manner (Section 3) based on the Vintaging Model and industry analysis. 

Appendix A discusses the assumptions used to develop the supply and demand estimates presented in 

this report and the limitations and caveats inherent in the analysis. In addition to the use of EPA’s 

Vintaging Model, during the development of the first version of this report, EPA contacted a limited 

number of industry experts to corroborate the findings and market dynamics affecting the servicing needs 

of the AC and refrigeration industry after 2010. EPA used the informal discussions to confirm or modify 

preliminary estimates obtained from EPA’s Vintaging Model for this analysis. 

The first release of this report was on November 4, 2005 when EPA made the preliminary draft version 

available for comment in a Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 70 FR 67172). EPA received five 

comments, which are available at EPA’s electronic docket at www.regulations.gov (Docket ID number, 

EPA-HQ-OAR-2003-0130). Among the comments received, two commenters stated that the overall 

projected demand of R-22 for servicing AC and refrigeration equipment is reasonable; however, all 

commenters expressed concern regarding the projections of the supply of R-22 recovered from 

equipment and subsequently recycled or reclaimed for reuse that can satisfy future demand. One 

commenter indicated that the existing business model for R-22 recovery does not encourage the 

conservation efforts required to meet the 50% recovery scenario presented in the preliminary draft report, 

nor would the current collection and processing infrastructure support projections of the recovered supply. 

In response, EPA used the Vintaging Model to test whether demand might exceed supply under some 

circumstances. 

On September 29, 2006, EPA’s Stratospheric Protection Division held a meeting for HCFC stakeholders 

regarding the 2010 milestone in the HCFC phaseout. EPA issued a September 2006 version of this 

report at that time. This version contained one additional scenario of consumption needs for R-22 based 

on industry input on the 2005 draft report. EPA subsequently received comments on this report as well 

as options for a future rulemaking to allocate HCFCs for the control periods of 2010-2014. The June 

2008 version of the report took into account the comments from stakeholders and provided an updated 

set of analyses based on the most recent Vintaging Model output. The June 2008 version of the report 

included the estimates of a recovery rate of 15, 20, and 75 percent in addition to updating the previous 

scenarios of 10 and 50 percent. 

 

On December 23, 2008, EPA published two proposed rules, Adjustments to the Allowance System for 

Controlling HCFC Production, Import, and Export (73 FR 78680) and Ban on the Sale or Distribution of 

Pre-charged Appliances (73 FR 78705). Comments on both proposed rules were submitted during the 

public comment period in early 2009 in Docket ID No. EPA–HQ–OAR–2008–0496 and Docket ID No. 

EPA–HQ–OAR–2007–0163 respectively. The Allowance System proposed rule requested comments on 

the draft servicing tail analysis. This version of the report takes into account relevant comments from 

stakeholders. As with previous versions of this report, the analysis uses EPA’s Vintaging Model in 

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conjunction with industry collaboration and reported HCFC consumption data to inform the quantitative 

estimates on projected servicing needs. The analysis employs the same Vintaging Model output as the 

June 2008 version.9

 It also focuses on Scenarios 20 and 50 (additional scenarios are in Appendix C) and 

presents the actual allocation amounts for the 2010-2014 control periods as found in EPA’s final rule. 

9

 The June 2008 version of the report used a model run developed in 2007 (EPA, 2007a) to assist in projecting future servicing 

demands for HCFCs. While several updates were made to the inputs of EPA’s Vintaging Model since 2007, these updates were 

determined to have minimal impact on the HCFC projections. 
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3. Overview of HCFC Use in the United States 

HCFCs have a variety of applications in the foam, aerosol, solvent cleaning, fire protection, and 

sterilization industry sectors; however, their largest presence is in the AC and refrigeration industries. 

Although the Montreal Protocol has identified numerous HCFCs under Article 2F, only those listed in Box 

3-1 are consumed in significant quantities in the United States. 

Box 3-1: Summary of Common HCFCs and their End-Use Applications 

• HCFC-141b –historically used as a blowing agent in rigid polyurethane foams and integral skim foams and in 

aerosol solvent cleaning applications. Production and consumption phased out in 2003 except for exemption 

production for specific applications. 

• HCFC-22 - used as a refrigerant in several applications such as unitary air conditioners, cold storage, retail food 

refrigeration equipment, chillers, and industrial process refrigeration; see Section 4 for further information. Also 

used (in smaller quantities) as a blowing agent for certain foam applications and as a component of some sterilant 

mixtures. 

• HCFC-123 - used in centrifugal chillers and portable fire extinguishers. 

• HCFC-124 - used in some sterilant mixtures and as a component in some replacements for CFCs as a refrigerant 

or for halon as a fire suppressant. Replaces CFC-114 in some heat pumps and special air conditioning equipment. 

• HCFC-142b - used as a blowing agent in extruded polystyrene boardstock. Also used in small quantities in 

refrigerant blends as a retrofit refrigerant for applications such as motor vehicle ACs that previously used CFC-12. 

Table 3-1. HCFC Atmospheric Lifetime (Years) and Ozone Depletion Potential 

HCFC Chemical Name CAS 

Number 

Atmospheric 

Lifetime 

(years) 

ODPa

HCFC-141b (CH3CFCl2) 1,1-Dichloro-1-fluoroethane 1717-00-6 9.2 0.11 

HCFC-142b (CH3CF2Cl) 1-Chloro-1,1-difluoroethane 75-68-3 17.9 0.065 

HCFC-22 (CHF2Cl) Chlorodifluoromethane 75-45-6 12.0 0.055 

HCFC-124 (CF3CHFCl) 2-Chloro-1,1,1,2-tetrafluoroethane 2837-89-0 5.8 0.022 

HCFC-123 (CHCl2CF3) 1,1-Dichloro-2,2,2-trifluoroethane 306-83-2 1.3 0.02 aODP values are taken from the Montreal Protocol (UNEP 2003b).

Section 3 is organized into two subsections. Section 3.1 provides a brief discussion of projected demand 

of HCFCs, including estimates in ODP-weighted metric tons. Section 3.2 presents an overview of the 

HCFC demand by end-use sectors for HCFCs other than HCFC-22 with a primary focus on the AC and 

refrigeration sector. 

3.1 Projected HCFC Demand 

HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 production and import will be limited beginning January 1, 2010, to use as a 

refrigerant in, or to provide service to, equipment manufactured prior to January 1, 2010. Servicing use of 

these two HCFCs is limited to the AC and refrigeration sector. Projected demand for HCFC-22 was 

estimated based on EPA’s Vintaging Model and is further explored in Section 4, which presents projected 

scenarios of the extent to which HCFC-22 demand (in 2010 and beyond) can be met through supplies of 

recovered refrigerant. In addition to servicing demand, there is demand associated with other HCFCs for 

other end-use applications not subject to the 2010 use restrictions on HCFC-142b and HCFC-22. EPA 

projected demand for those other HCFCs by examining estimates of current demand through various 

sources, including consumption data as reported by regulated entities to EPA, input from industry experts, 

and assumptions from EPA’s Vintaging Model on future anticipated trends (EPA 2007a; NASA 2008; U.S. 

HCFC Manufacturer Representatives 2008; U.S. HCFC Manufacturer Representatives 2009). Figure 3

demonstrates all projected HCFC demand in 2010 (ODP-weighted); as shown, HCFC-22 servicing need

constitute over 97% percent of all HCFC demand in 2010. 

-1 

s 

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Figure 3-1. Total Projected HCFC Demand in ODP-Weighted Metric Tons, 2010 

HCFC123

33%

HCFC124

16%

HCFC142b

10%

HCFC225 

ca/cb

41%

HCFC22

98.2%

Source: HCFC-22 estimate based on EPA, 2007a. Estimates for other HCFCs based on consumption as reported by regulated entities 

to EPA, modeling assumptions from EPA, 2007a, and input from U.S. HCFC Manufacturer Representatives, 2008, and 2009. 

Note: Totals do not sum due to independent rounding. 

HCFC 

ODP-MT 

Demand 

HCFC-22 3,437

7

21

10

26 

63

00

HCFC-142b 

HCFC-123 

HCFC-124 

HCFC-225 ca/cb 

Other HCFCs 

Total 3,5

3,500 ODP-MT 63 ODP-MT 

3.2 HCFCs Other than HCFC-22 

As Figure 3-2 illustrates, the largest sector in 2007 using HCFCs (excluding HCFC-22) is the foam 

industry, followed by the refrigeration and AC, sterilants, and solvents industries. In 2010, the largest 

sector using HCFCs (excluding HCFC-22) is expected to be the refrigeration and AC industry (at 43%), , 

followed by solvents industry, which includes aerosol solvents (at 41%), and the sterilants industry (16%). 

In comparison, the fire suppression and explosion protection sector is not projected to use significant 

amounts of HCFCs other than HCFC-22 in 2010 (i.e., 1%). Projections of HCFC use in the adhesives, 

coatings, and inks sector have not been estimated due to insufficient data available to validate any use of 

HCFCs, particularly HCFC-225 ca/cb in this sector. 

Figure 3-2. Estimated HCFC (Excluding HCFC-22) Virgin Demand by Industry Sector, ODPWeighted Metric Tons 

Ref/AC, 

4%

Solvents, 

3%

Foam 

Blowing

89%

Fire 

Suppression 

& Explosion 

Protection, 

0.19%

Sterilants, 

3%

2007 HCFC Market Characterization 

(not including HCFC-22)

Ref/AC, 

43%

Solvents, 

41%

Sterilants, 

16%

Fire 

Suppression 

& Explosion 

Protection, 

1%

2010 HCFC Market Characterization 

(not including HCFC-22)

 

Source: HCFC-22 estimate based on EPA, 2007a. Estimates for other HCFCs based on consumption as reported by regulated entities to 

EPA, modeling assumptions from EPA, 2007a, and input from U.S. HCFC Manufacturer Representatives, 2008 and 2009. 

Note: Totals do not sum due to independent rounding. 

609 ODP-MT 63 ODP-MT
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3.2.1 HCFC Use in Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning 

Historically, CFCs were extensively used as refrigerants in the AC and refrigeration industries; by the 

1970s, R-22 and R-502 (a blend of CFC-115 and R-22) were also well established refrigerants. On 

January 1, 1996, the production and import of CFC refrigerants, classified as Class I controlled (ozonedepleting) substances under the CAA Amendments of 1990, were phased out in the U.S. and other 

industrialized countries. HCFC refrigerants, which deplete the ozone layer to a lesser degree and are 

classified as Class II controlled substances under the 1990 CAAA, were found acceptable as substitutes 

for the controlled CFCs in some end use applications. 

Air-Conditioning End-Uses 

AC equipment can be categorized as either mobile or stationary. 

Mobile air-conditioning systems include all forms of AC that provide cooling to passenger 

compartments in all types of moving vehicles. This category can be further broken down into motor 

vehicle air-conditioning for light-duty vehicles and other mobile air-conditioning systems. 

• Motor vehicle air-conditioning (MVAC) includes AC in the passenger compartments of light duty 

vehicles—both cars and trucks (e.g., pick-up trucks, minivans, sport utility vehicles). A variety of 

refrigerant blends, some of them including HCFCs, are approved for use in the United States by 

EPA as replacements for R-12 in MVACs. However, these blends have not been endorsed by 

vehicle or system manufacturers for such use, thereby capturing only a small and declining share 

of the retrofit market, which consists mainly of R-134a. R-134a is not an ODS; therefore, the 

light-duty MVAC sector is not discussed further in this analysis. 

• Other mobile air-conditioning includes AC in the passenger compartments of both buses 

(including school, transit, and tour buses) and trains (including heavy, light, and commuter rail, 

and Amtrak trains).10 Although most bus AC systems converted directly from R-12 to R-134a, the 

majority of the existing fleet of transit buses, tour buses, and trains continue to use R-22 in their 

AC systems. 

Stationary air-conditioning includes a wide variety of equipment, further categorized into the following 

six categories. 

• Unitary air-conditioners and heat pumps include both split systems and packaged units and are 

designed for air circulating, cooling, cleaning, and dehumidifying and sometimes heating in 

residential and small and large commercial applications. 

• Chillers regulate the temperature and humidity in offices, hotels, shopping centers, and other 

large buildings. There are two major categories of chillers—centrifugal and positive 

displacement. Centrifugal chillers are centralized air conditioning systems typically used in larger 

buildings (e.g., offices, hotels, shopping centers, and other large buildings). Positive 

displacement chillers are smaller and may be water-cooled or air-cooled. There are three types 

of positive displacement chillers—1) reciprocating, 2) screw, and 3) scroll—each of which is 

named for the type of compressor employed. 

• Dehumidifiers are mechanical refrigeration systems designed to remove moisture from the air by 

drawing air first over cold evaporator coils and then warm condenser coils, causing the moisture 

in the air to condense onto the cold coils. Examples include indoor pool dehumidifiers and 

portable units used to dehumidify basements. 

• Water and ground source heat pumps use fluid circulated in a common piping loop as a heat 

source/sink to cool and heat air. Water-source heat pumps typically use water pumped from a 

well, lake, or stream as a heat source/sink. Direct expansion geothermal heat pumps circulate 

refrigerant through piping in the earth. 

• Window units, also known as room air-conditioners, are small appliances used to condition the air 

in a single room. 

10 For the purposes of this report, “other mobile AC” does not include ships, planes, RVs, or construction/farm equipment. In the 

case of boats, some R-22 is used in AC systems (UNEP 2003a), but this consumption is accounted for in this report under 

stationary AC equipment, such as packaged terminal units or chillers (Cold Ships 2009). 

December 2009 Page 10
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• Packaged terminal units are ACs or heat pumps that are mounted on the wall. They are often 

used in hotel rooms, dormitories, or classrooms.

Figure 3-3: Types of Air-Conditioning Systemsa

Air-Conditioning (AC) 

Equipment

Motor 

Vehicle AC

Stationary Air-Conditioning

Water and

Ground Source 

Heat Pumps

Dehumidifiers

Residential 

Small 

Commercial 

Large 

Commercial 

Other Mobile 

AC 

Mobile Air-Conditioning

Packaged 

Terminal AC 

and Heat 

Pumps 

 

Window Units

Centrifugal 

Chillers

Positive 

Displacement 

Reciprocating Screw Scroll 

Unitary AC and 

Heat Pumps

aThe end-use, MVACs, in the dashed box is assumed to not use HCFC refrigerants; 

double boxed end-uses are those for which supply and demand projections 

are estimated in this report.

Refrigeration End-Uses 

Refrigeration equipment can be broken down into four categories: domestic refrigeration, refrigerated 

transport, industrial process refrigeration, and commercial refrigeration. 

Domestic refrigeration includes household refrigerators, household freezers, combination 

refrigerator/freezer units, and water coolers. For the majority of these equipment types, the refrigerants 

used do not typically include HCFCs or blends containing HCFCs. Older household freezers sometimes 

employed R-22; however, because these units are viewed as a minor part of the domestic refrigeration 

market, this end-use is not further analyzed in this report. 

Refrigerated transport includes refrigeration used in equipment that moves products from one place to 

another and includes refrigerated ship holds, truck trailers (i.e., reefer trucks), railway freight cars, and 

other shipping containers. 

Industrial process refrigeration (IPR) systems are complex, customized systems used to cool process 

streams in the chemical, food processing, pharmaceutical, petrochemical, and manufacturing industries. 

This sector also includes industrial ice machines, equipment used directly in the generation of electricity, 

and ice rinks. 

Commercial refrigeration can be further broken down into three end-uses: 

• Cold storage warehouses are refrigeration systems with varying designs and charge sizes. They 

are used to store meat, produce, dairy products, and other perishable goods before and after 

food processing. 

• Retail food systems are used to refrigerate food in commercial retail establishments, such as 

grocery stores. These systems can be classified as either centralized or self-contained units. 

Centralized retail food systems, also known as remote systems, consist of a series of 

December 2009 Page 11
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compressors located in a remote machinery room, providing a cooling medium to display cabinets 

and cold storage rooms in other parts of the building. The most common form of centralized 

systems circulate refrigerant throughout the store. Alternatives to these types of systems include 

secondary loop and distributed systems that for the most part use HFC refrigerant blends. Selfcontained retail food units, also referred to as stand-alone systems, are factory produced with all 

the components integrated. Examples include walk-in refrigerators/coolers/freezers, roll-in 

refrigerators/freezers, under-counter refrigerators/freezers, reach-in refrigerators/freezers, wine 

and beer coolers, ice cream machines, beverage vending machines, and a variety of stand-alone 

upright or horizontal display cases (e.g., beverage merchandisers, deli cases). 

• Ice makers are factory-made units used in commercial establishments to produce ice for 

consumer use (e.g., in hotels, restaurants, and convenience stores). Ice makers are not further 

analyzed in this report because they do not typically employ HCFCs or blends containing HCFCs. 

Figure 3-4: Types of Refrigeration Systemsa

Refrigeration Equipment 

Domestic Refrigeration Commercial 

Refrigeration 

Refrigerated 

Transport

Industrial 

Process 

Refrigeration

aS 

aDashed boxes cover end-uses that are assumed to not use 

Household 

Freezers 

Water 

Coolers 

Household 

Refrigerators Ice 

Makers 

Cold 

Storage 

Retail

Food 

HCFC refrigerants; double boxed end-uses are those for which 

supply and demand projections are estimated in this report. 

HCFC-22 represents the majority of the 

refrigeration and AC market, however, other 

HCFCs are also used by the refrigeration 

and air-conditioning industries. A brief 

discussion of the use of HCFC-142b, HCFC123, HCFC-124, and HCFC-21 as 

refrigerants is provided below; in addition, 

Box 3-2 presents a brief summary of HCFCs 

uses in refrigerant blends.11

The production and import of virgin HCFC123, HCFC-124, and HCFC-21 is scheduled 

for phaseout in 2020 for use in new AC and 

refrigeration equipment, and in 2030 for use 

in AC and refrigeration equipment 

manufactured before January 1, 2020. The 

phaseout schedule for HCFC-142b is the 

same as that for HCFC-22—beginning 

January 1, 2010, production and import of 

HCFC-142b will be limited solely for use in 

equipment manufactured prior to January 1, 

2010. The final phaseout for HCFC-142b 

(and HCFC-22) is on January 1, 2020, and 

for all HCFCs on January 1, 2030. Table 

Box 3-2: Summary of HCFCs used in Refrigerant Blends 

Often refrigerants are formulated with several substances, such as 

hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) or hydrocarbons (e.g., propane, butane, 

isobutane). HCFC-22 is used as both a stand-alone refrigerant and a 

component of refrigerant blends. Table 3-2 presents the composition of the 

more common refrigerant blends containing HCFCs. 

Table 3-2: Compositions of Common HCFC Refrigerant Blends 

Blend R-22 R-124 Other 

R-401A 53% 34% 13% HFC-152a 

R-402A 38% 60% HFC-125, 2% propane (R-290) 

R-502 48.8% 51.2% CFC-115 

 

11 HCFC consumption data presented in this analysis include quantities consumed in blends by employing the percent composition 

of the corresponding HCFC constituent(s) of that blend. In order to accurately portray the number of units containing HCFC blends, 

however, blends are not disaggregated when presenting the number of units of equipment (i.e., a unit running on an HCFCcontaining blend counts as one unit). 

End-uses in which these refrigerant blends containing HCFCs are 

currently used are presented in the table below. 

Table 3-3: HCFC-Containing Refrigerant Blends by End-Use 

Refrigeration Equipment Type Refrigerant Type 

R-401A R-402A R-502

Retail Food x x

Cold Storage x

IPR x 

Refrigerated Transport x x x 

December 2009 Page 12
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December 2009 Page 13

3-4 presents projected estimates of HCFC refrigerant demand (excluding HCFC-22) for the refrigeration 

and AC industries in five year increments from 2010 to 2020. 

Table 3-4: Projected HCFC-124, HCFC-123, and HCFC-142b Demand for 

Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning, 2010-2020, (Metric Tons) 

HCFC 2010 2015 2020 

HCFC-124 <5 <5 0 

HCFC-123 1,000 1000 600 

HCFC-142b 100 0 0 

Source: Based on consumption as reported by regulated entities to EPA, 

modeling assumptions from EPA, 2007a, and input from U.S. HCFC 

Manufacturer Representatives, 2009. 

• HCFC-124 — HCFC-124 is minimally used as a refrigerant; its primary use as a refrigerant is in 

blends, mainly R-401A, in industrial process and transport refrigeration equipment. As a standalone refrigerant, it has found some niche applications that reach high condensing temperatures 

as well as an alternative for CFC-114 in some naval chillers. The production and import of virgin 

HCFC-124 is scheduled for phaseout in 2020 for use in new AC and refrigeration equipment, and 

in 2030 for use in existing AC and refrigeration equipment. However, its use in blends R-401A, 

R-401B, R-409A, R-414A, R-414B and others is constrained because those blends also contain 

R-22. HCFC-124 is also a component of R-416A, which does not contain any other ODS. 

• HCFC-123 — HCFC-123 is used in the refrigeration and AC sector mainly in centrifugal chillers 

for industrial process refrigeration and commercial comfort AC. The production and import of 

virgin HCFC-123 is scheduled for phaseout in 2020 for use in new AC and refrigeration 

equipment, and in 2030 for use in AC and refrigeration equipment manufactured before January 

1, 2020. 

• HCFC-142b — In addition to being used in the foam industry, HCFC-142b is also used as a 

refrigerant, but only as a constituent of a few refrigerant blends. While HCFC-142b refrigerant 

blends are approved as acceptable substitutes for CFC refrigerants in some end-uses, their use 

is small and declining. R-409A (composed of HCFC-22, HCFC-124, and HCFC-142b) is the most 

common refrigerant blend using HCFC-142b. However, sales of R-409A are rapidly declining, 

and are being replaced with R-404A (composed of HFC-125, HFC-134a, and HFC-143a) (U.S. 

HCFC Manufacturer Representatives 2008). Based on industry estimates, it is assumed that 

current demand for HCFC-142b as a refrigerant will continue to decrease to approximately 100 

metric tons in 2010 and to zero by 2015 (U.S. HCFC Manufacturer Representatives 2008). 

• HCFC-21 — HCFC-21 currently is used by NASA as a refrigerant in the cooling loops of the 

space shuttle fleet (NASA 2008). Research indicates that NASA is the only industrial user of 

HCFC-21. NASA's plan is to use the HCFC-21 until shuttle fly-out (2010) and to employ HCFC21 alternatives in the next generation of space vehicles (NASA 2008). For this analysis, it is 

assumed that demand for HCFC-21 beyond 2010 is zero; however, it is conceivable that NASA 

may access in-house stockpiles or require small quantities of new production of the refrigerant for 

potential future uses. 
The U.S Phaseout of HCFCs: 

Projected Servicing Needs in the U.S. Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Sector 

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4. Projected R-22 Scenarios 

Section 4 presents projections of the number of R-22-containing units of equipment and the associated 

servicing needs for 2010, 2015, and 2020. R-22 scenarios were developed by investigating various 

trends that are expected to affect future market needs. Such trends include changes in charge sizes, the 

transition to alternative refrigerants, changes in refrigerant recovery and reuse practices, and R-22 

economics. 

• Section 4.1 summarizes the projected market size of equipment containing R-22 beyond 2010 in 

the United States. 

• Section 4.2 estimates the quantity of both virgin (i.e., consumption as defined under the Montreal 

Protocol) and recovered R-22 that will be required to service existing equipment beyond 2010. 

This section also provides a summary and examination of the final R-22 allocations set by EPA 

for 2010 through 2014. 

• Section 4.3 discusses the factors that may affect estimates of the installed base and servicing 

needs for R-22 equipment. 

Appendix B presents further detail on the estimates provided in Section 4, disaggregating R-22-containing 

equipment and overall service demand estimates into end-use specific projections. 

4.1 R-22 Equipment Used Beyond 2010 

The majority of R-22 equipment that is projected to be in use (i.e., within the installed base) from 2010 

onward will be used for AC applications, including window units, packaged terminal units, residential and 

commercial unitary AC, chillers, dehumidifiers, water and ground source heat pumps, and non-light duty 

mobile AC in buses, trains, etc. As presented in Table 4-1, EPA estimates that approximately 145.6 

million units of all such types of AC equipment will be in use in 2010, decreasing from 2010 levels by 

about 41 percent by 2015, and 86 percent by 2020. EPA also estimates that in 2010 there will be 

approximately 3.8 million units of refrigeration equipment, including retail food, industrial process 

refrigeration, and transport refrigeration equipment (but not including cold storage warehouses). The 

installed base of refrigeration equipment is projected to decrease from 2010 levels by about 44 percent by 

2015 and 75 percent by 2020. EPA developed these estimates based on the 2007 version of EPA’s 

Vintaging Model (EPA 2007a). Appendix A provides more detail on the methodology used to develop 

these projections. Appendix B provides projections disaggregated by end-use. 

Table 4-1: Projected Number of R-22 Units (2010-2020)a,b 

Equipment Type 2010 2015 2020 

Total AC 145,633,300 86,049,100 20,615,300 

Total Refrigeration 3,779,600 2,114,800 930,300 

Total 149,412,900 88,163,900 21,545,600 a Including units that use blends containing HCFC-22.

b Because the estimates for cold storage warehouses are expressed in cubic feet, this 

equipment type is not included in this table. The projected stock of cold storage warehouse 

space using R-22 is 231 million ft3 in 2010, 133 million ft3 in 2015, and 61 million ft3 in 2020. 

Source: Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a. 

4.2 Projected R-22 Servicing Needs 

AC and refrigeration equipment commonly requires servicing, which may include adding refrigerant to 

account for refrigerant losses that occur over time.12 While the production and import of HCFC-22 is 

banned for use in new equipment in 2010, it will still be permitted for servicing and maintenance purposes 

for equipment manufactured prior to January 1, 2010. Table 4-2 presents projected R-22 demand 

(including that used in blends) for servicing equipment in 2010, 2015, and 2020. These estimates were 

 

12 The servicing need estimates projected in this analysis include refrigerant to replace quantities that leak from operating equipment 

as well as de minimis losses that may occur while servicing operating equipment. 

December 2009 Page 14
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December 2009 Page 15

developed based on the EPA’s Vintaging Model (EPA 2007a). Appendix A provides further detail on the 

methodology used to develop these projections. Appendix B provides servicing demand projections 

disaggregated by end-use. 

As presented in Table 4-2, it is projected that in 2010, approximately 62,500 metric tons of R-22 will be 

required to service AC and refrigeration equipment, of which the majority—41,700 metric tons (67%)—will 

be used to service AC systems. EPA projects that servicing demand for R-22 in AC and refrigeration 

equipment will decrease to 38,800 metric tons by 2015 and 18,200 metric tons by 2020. Both the 2015 

and 2020 projections of servicing demand exceed the U.S. consumption cap for virgin HCFCs for these 

years; however, a portion of the servicing needs can be met by using recovered refrigerant, thus 

decreasing the need for virgin R-22. 

Table 4-2: Projected R-22 Servicing Demand (2010-2020) (Metric Tons) 

Equipment Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 

Total AC 41,700 38,600 35,600 32,400 29,200 25,900 11,300 

Total Refrigeration 20,800 19,300 17,600 16,000 14,400 12,800 7,000 

Overall Total 62,500 57,900 53,200 48,400 43,600 38,800 18,200 

Source: Based on data analysis using EPA, 2007a. 

Note: Totals do not sum due to independent rounding.

Figure 4-1 displays the breakdown of R-22 servicing demand by AC and refrigeration equipment type for 

2010 and 2015. As shown, residential AC, retail food refrigeration equipment, and small commercial AC 

are projected to account for the majority of the R-22 demand in 2010 and in 2015. 

Source: EPA's Vintaging Model (VM IO file_11-12-07_ALL)

2010

Total Consumption for Servicing: 62,500 MT

Residential AC 

33%

Retail Food

Small 

mmercial AC

23%

IPR

14%

Chillers

5%

Large 

Commercial AC

5%

Cold Storage

2% Other 

Equipment

1%

17%

Co

Residential AC 

35%

Retail Food

13%

Small 

Commercial AC

23%

IPR

18%

Chillers

3%

Large 

Commercial AC

5%

Cold Storage

2%

Other Equipment

1%

2015

Total Consumption for Servicing: 38,800 MT

Figure 4-1. R-22 Demand for Servicing Refrigeration and AC Equipment, by End-Usea

 

a

“Other Equipment” includes window units, packaged terminal units, water and ground source heat pumps, other mobile AC, and 

refrigerated transport.
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Projected Servicing Needs in the U.S. Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Sector 

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4.2.1 R-22 Sources 

Starting in 2010, only existing sources of R-22 and a controlled quantity of virgin R-22 (limited through 

allowance allocations distributed by EPA) will be available to the AC and refrigeration industry to meet 

servicing demand.13 Existing sources of R-22, which can offset the need for virgin R-22, include: 

1. R-22 that is recovered and either recycled or reclaimed before reuse. Under EPA regulations 

at 40 CFR 82.156, refrigerants containing HCFCs must be recovered. After the recovery 

process, the refrigerant held in the storage container may be: 

a. Recycled (i.e., cleaned through the use of recycling equipment) and recharged back into 

the equipment from which it came; 

b. Recycled and used in other equipment of the same owner; 

c. Reclaimed (shipped to an EPA-certified reclaimer) prior to resale to a new owner; or 

d. Destroyed through the use of environmentally-acceptable technologies that meet the 

definition of destruction in 40 CFR 82.3 (i.e., liquid injection incineration, reactor cracking, 

gaseous/fume oxidation, rotary kiln incineration, cement kilns, and radio frequency 

plasma) (EPA 2003b). 

2. Import of used R-22 that companies can acquire, if the import is preauthorized by EPA, through 

a petition process. 

3. The conversion of allocations from other chemicals to R-22 as allowed under the final allocation 

rule. 

Each of these existing sources of R-22 is described in more detail below. 

Recycled R-22 

Recovered R-22 is often recycled prior to being used again in equipment. The recycling process cleans 

the refrigerant for reuse without meeting all the requirements of reclamation, discussed further below. 

HCFC refrigerants are commonly recovered from a piece of equipment, adequately cleaned, and then 

recharged into the same piece of equipment using a recycling device (EPA 2003b). 

EPA regulations allow for the recharge of used refrigerant without subsequent reclamation for refrigerants 

that are recovered and charged back into the same appliance or to another appliance if those appliances 

have the same owner. Several companies, such as supermarket chains, employ recycling plans through 

which the refrigerant is recovered when dismantling or converting one establishment’s equipment and 

reused to service equipment at another facility with the same ownership. EPA does not collect data on 

the amount of R-22 that is recycled. 

Reclaimed R-22 

Refrigerants that are resold to be used in other equipment must be reclaimed to a standard level of purity 

based on the ARI Standard 700, to ensure sufficient purity of the reclaimed refrigerant. EPA certified 

reclaimers are approved to reprocess used refrigerant to at least the purity level based on the ARI 700 

Standard. 

Industry representatives have indicated that the current use of reclaimed HCFCs is minimal because 

virgin R-22 is inexpensive. In 2008, the amount of pure R-22 reclaimed by EPA-certified reclaimers 

totaled approximately 4,556 metric tons, or 10.05 million pounds (EPA 2009). Fewer quantities of the 

refrigerant blend R-502, composed of 48.8 percent R-22 and 51.2 percent CFC-115, are also being 

reclaimed, with only 40 metric tons, or 88,040 pounds reported for 2008 (EPA 2009).14 Reclamation data 

from 2000 to 2008 is presented in Table 4-3 below. 

13 Virgin R-22 may be stockpiled; however, the extent to which this activity may occur is unknown. A discussion on stockpiling plans 

is covered in Section 4.3.3. 14 Feedback received from stakeholders in response to the NODA indicated that because R-502 is an azeotropic blend, it is difficult 

and expensive to separate R-22 from the blend, and hence such separation is very limited (National Refrigerants 2006).

December 2009 Page 16
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Table 4-3: Reclaimed R-22 by Year (Metric Tons) 

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 

R-22 3,218 1,960 2,230 1,976 3,280 2,800 3,872 3,716 4,556

R-502 281 113 150 41 48 25 52 34 40 

Source: EPA 2009.

As 2010 approaches, the price of R-22 has increased and it is expected that the reclamation of R-22 will 

also continue to increase. Comments received during the comment period to EPA’s proposed rule, 

Adjustments to the Allowance System for Controlling HCFC Production, Import, and Export (73 FR 

78680), also indicate the support for increasing reclamation. For example, distributors are increasingly 

offering refrigerant recovery services and the certified reclaimer community is offering more aggressive 

reclamation programs (HARDI 2009). Additionally, Arkema noted that they recently launched a new 

incentive-based national reclaim program for their distributors (Arkema 2009). A more detailed discussion 

on R-22 economics and recovery and reuse practices is provided in Section 4.3, “Factors Affecting 

Projections.” 

Imports of Used R-22 

Unlike virgin HCFCs, used HCFCs are not subject to Montreal Protocol restrictions on consumption.15 

However, in creating the allocation system for the use of HCFCs, EPA developed a shipment-by-shipment 

petition process for importing used HCFCs as described in 40 CFR 82.24 (EPA 2003a). The petition 

process ensures that HCFCs have been used (and were not newly produced) prior to import. For each 

shipment of used HCFC greater than five pounds, the importer needs to petition EPA at least 40 working 

days before the shipment is to leave the country of export. EPA reviews and verifies data in the petition 

and issues either an objection notice or a non-objection notice to the prospective importer. 

Currently, the quantity of used R-22 imports is minimal; however, recently the Agency has received 

inquires from additional companies interested in importing used R-22. The projections in this report do 

not specifically include the potential future quantities obtained from the import of used R-22 because this 

analysis indicates that there is sufficient potential to offset future demand for virgin material using 

domestic sources. 

Interpollutant Transfers of Allowances 

Another source of R-22 can result from allowance holders transferring their allowances from one HCFC to 

HCFC-22, which is permitted on an annual and ODP-weighted basis. Section 607 of the Clean Air Act 

permits year-by-year inter-pollutant transfers of production and consumption allowances. Section 607(b) 

requires that EPA’s rules are to permit “a production allowance for a substance for any year to be 

transferred for a production allowance for another substance for the same year.” For example, converting 

100 allowances of HCFC-123 (with an ODP of 0.02) would result in 36.36 allowances of HCFC-22 (with 

an ODP of 0.055). Allowance holders have converted their allowances to meet market demand 

historically; this practice is expected to continue, however, the projections in this analysis do not 

quantitatively assess the potential future quantities that could be obtained from converted allocations. 

4.2.2 Meeting R-22 Service Demand 

Although limited production of virgin HCFC-22 will be allowed to service equipment until 2020 through 

production and consumption allowances, the analysis performed for this report indicates that, with 

industry effort, a significant portion of the demand for HCFC-22 for servicing can be met with previously 

used refrigerant that is recovered and then recycled or reclaimed. Increased amounts of recovered R-22 

are a source made available as a result of the venting prohibition EPA has established under Section 608 

of CAA (EPA 2004a). To determine the potential amounts of used refrigerant available to service 

 

15 “Used controlled substances” are controlled substances that have been recovered from their intended use systems (which may 

include controlled substances that have been, or may be subsequently, recycled or reclaimed) (EPA 2003a). 

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s 

equipment, EPA used its Vintaging Model to develop five theoretical scenarios to estimate: 1) the 

projected amount of recovered R-22 potentially available to meet projected servicing demand of other 

equipment still in use; 2) the subsequent remaining quantity needed to satisfy the rest of that demand; 

and 3) the extent to which the remaining demand can be met with allowable quantities of virgin R-22 

production. This section presents two of these scenarios and Appendix C presents the other three, which 

represent the lower and higher recovery rates analyzed for this report. The two scenarios presented in 

this section are closer to the recovery rate necessary to meet demand between 2010 and 2014 under 

EPA’s final allocation rule. In addition, this section presents an analysis of EPA’s actual allocation 

amount and the associated necessary rate of recovered material. 

In developing the scenarios using the Vintaging Model, EPA projected the amount of recovered R-22 

based on the quantity available from decommissioned or retrofitted equipment. While refrigerant 

recovered from equipment during servicing can also be available for reuse in other equipment, this 

potential source is not included in these scenarios for several reasons. First, it is projected to be minimal 

in net terms (i.e., refrigerant recovered during service would likely be returned to the same equipment 

from which it was recovered). Also, according to industry sources, refrigerant recovered during service 

events primarily originates from commercial and industrial equipment (i.e., equipment with relatively large 

charges). Refrigerant is rarely recovered during the servicing of small equipment because these units 

tend not to be overcharged or leaking (Home Energy Center 2006, Airgas 2006). Additionally, only a 

small portion of all servicing events conducted on commercial and industrial equipment involve the 

refrigerant circuit, and when recovering refrigerant to perform repairs is necessary, often only a section of 

the refrigerant charge is isolated and recovered, not the entire charge. 

To estimate refrigerant recovery and reuse, EPA assumed that a certain percentage of refrigerant is 

recovered from decommissioned or retrofitted equipment.16 It is important to note that not all refrigerant 

is assumed to be recovered. While EPA has regulations prohibiting intentional venting, for the purposes 

of this analysis it is appropriate to create scenarios that assume less than the full charge of refrigerant i

recovered at equipment end-of-life. For example, in many instances, equipment is disposed of after a 

catastrophic failure, which might have resulted in a large or even complete loss of the refrigerant. Also, 

when equipment is removed from service, there can be losses associated with previous leaks and during 

attempts to recover the remaining refrigerant. It is also possible that owners or technicians disposing of a 

piece of equipment might not comply with the regulations and might vent the refrigerant. 

This analysis then assumes that the entire pool of recovered refrigerant re-enters the market (see 

Appendix A for more details) and hence offsets the demand for virgin R-22. The two scenarios 

investigated can be summarized as follows: 

• Scenario 20 assumes that by 2010, 20 percent of refrigerant from retired or retrofitted 

equipment is recovered and available for reuse in equipment (i.e., a 20 percent recovery 

rate). The remaining 80 percent is not available for reuse. 

• Scenario 50 assumes that by 2010, 50 percent of refrigerant from retired or retrofitted 

equipment is recovered and available for reuse in equipment (i.e., a 50 percent recovery 

rate). The remaining 50 percent is not available for reuse. 

Tables 4-4 and 4-5 summarize the two recovery scenarios in comparison to the phaseout caps under the 

Montreal Protocol and the actual U.S. HCFC consumption allocations for HCFC-22. 

 

16 To calculate the amount recovered, the Vintaging Model assumes equipment contains a full charge at disposal and assumes a 

certain percent of that is recovered. It does not take into account a) refrigerant destroyed after equipment is decommissioned or b) 

any stockpiling of recovered refrigerant beyond a one-year timeframe. See Appendix A for further details.

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Table 4-4 summarizes the projections under the first recovery scenario that assumes practices that yield 

a recovery rate of 20 percent. These projections are compared to the U.S. HCFC consumption cap. As 

shown the estimated virgin R-22 supply needed in 2010 can be adequately met with a portion of the 

HCFC consumption cap remaining. A 20 percent recovery rate would meet 9 percent of servicing 

demand in 2010, 23 percent in 2015, and 46 percent in 2020. Under this scenario, the quantity of 

recovered R-22 projected to be available in 2015 and 2020 plus the amount of virgin R-22 production 

allowable under the cap remains inadequate to meet the projected servicing demand, consequently 

leading to R-22 supply shortfalls beginning in 2015. 

Table 4-4: Scenario 20: 20% Recovery Rate: 

Summary of Projected R-22 Supply, Demand, and Shortfall (R-22 Metric Tons)

 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 

Projected R-22 Servicing Demand Summarya 

Total R-22 servicing demand 62,500 57,900 53,200 48,400 43,600 38,800 18,200 

Modeled R-22 supplied from recovery/reuse 5,900 8,200 8,300 8,500 8,600 8,800 8,300 

% of total R-22 servicing demand supplied by 

modeled recovery/reuse 9% 14% 16% 18% 20% 23% 46% 

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 56,600 49,700 44,900 40,000 34,900 30,000 9,900 

Comparison to HCFC Consumption Cap 

Virgin R-22 supply available under capb 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 27,709 0d

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 56,600 49,700 44,900 40,000 34,900 30,000 9,900 

Additional virgin R-22 allowable under capc 12,673 19,573 24,373 29,273 34,373 -2,291 -9,900 

a Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a.

b Expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 for HCFC-22). 

c Negative values represent a shortfall of R-22 available under the consumption cap and are in bold. 

d In 2020, a cap equal to 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

Table 4-5 summarizes the projections under the second recovery scenario that assumes practices that 

yield a recovery rate of 50 percent from retired or converted equipment. A 50 percent recovery rate 

would meet 24 percent of servicing demand in 2010, 57 percent in 2015, and 100 percent in 2020. 

Projections under this scenario indicate that sufficient supplies of refrigerant would be available to service 

equipment if 50 percent of refrigerant from retired equipment is recovered and re-enters the pool of 

refrigerant available to meet demand. 

Table 4-5: Scenario 50: 50% Recovery Rate: 

Summary of Projected R-22 Supply, Demand, and Shortfall (R-22 Metric Tons)

 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 

Projected R-22 Servicing Demand Summarya

Total R-22 servicing demand 62,500 57,900 53,200 48,400 43,600 38,800 18,200 

Modeled R-22 supplied from recovery/reuse 14,800 20,500 20,800 21,200 21,600 22,000 18,200 

% of total R-22 servicing demand supplied by 

modeled recovery/reuse 24% 35% 39% 44% 50% 57% 100% 

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 47,700 37,400 32,400 27,300 22,000 16,800 0 

Comparison to HCFC Consumption Cap 

Virgin R-22 supply available under capb 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 27,709 0c

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 47,700 37,400 32,400 27,300 22,000 16,800 0 

Additional virgin R-22 allowable under cap 21,573 31,873 36,873 41,973 47,273 10,909 0 

a Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a.

b Expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 for HCFC-22). 

c In 2020, a cap equal to 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

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Figures 4-2a and 4-2b illustrate the projected supply of recovered refrigerant available to meet demand, 

as well as its subsequent importance in meeting future demand, resulting from the two recovery 

scenarios. Depending on the recovery practice employed, the potential exists for either a surplus or 

shortfall to occur in 2015 (Scenario 50 shows a surplus while Scenario 20 shows a shortfall). 

As the market prepares for the 2010 milestone in the HCFC phaseout, it is important to ensure that R-22 

is recovered, recycled, stockpiled, or reclaimed to maximize available R-22 supply and avoid potential 

shortages. Increased reuse of R-22 will be needed to satisfy future servicing needs that will not be met 

through virgin supplies alone. The scenario presented above that avoids shortfalls throughout 2010 to 

2020 projects recovered R-22 to be approximately 14,800 metric tons in 2010, followed by 22,000 metric 

tons in 2015 and 18,200 metric tons in 2020 (i.e., Scenario 50). A lower recovery rate scenario also could 

provide a no-shortfall situation. A recovery rate scenario of 26 percent is the lowest recovery rate 

necessary to adequately meet demand starting in 2015. A 26 percent recovery rate will yield 29 percent 

of total servicing demand in 2015. 

For comparison, as noted in Table 4-3, in 2008 a total of 4,556 metric tons of HCFC-22 was reclaimed, 

which amounts to approximately five percent of total HCFC-22 consumption in 2008 (according to 

consumption data as reported by regulated entities to EPA). (The actual amount of refrigerant recovered, 

recycled, and reused without being reclaimed is not known.) If the 2008 level of reclamation remains 

constant, reclaimed R-22 would fulfill only 31 percent of the modeled R-22 supplied from recovery/reuse 

as projected to be available under Scenario 50 in 2010, dropping to approximately 21 percent and 25 

percent in 2015 and 2020, respectively (see Table 4-5). A further discussion on recovery practices is 

provided in Section 4.3.3. 

Figure 4-2a: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand, Recovery Scenario 20a,b

 a Consumption cap and allocations expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 for 

HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

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Figure 4-2b: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand, Recovery Scenario 50a,b 

a Consumption cap and allocations expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 for 

HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

4.2.3 EPA’s Allocations of R-22 for 2010 through 2014 

Based in part on the results of these scenarios, EPA has determined R-22 consumption allocations for 

years 2010 to 2014; the quantity allocated annually for these years is shown in Table 4-6. Although EPA 

has not yet allocated HCFC consumption allowances for 2015, the R-22 allocation can be no more than 

27,709 metric tons. Therefore, based on estimated servicing demand, recovery can be no less than 

11,091 metric tons, or, at least 29 percent of servicing demand (i.e., estimated at 38,800 metric tons) in 

that year. Table 4-6 also illustrates the quantity of R-22 required from recovery/reuse, which represents 

the difference between estimated demand and the allocation quantity for each year. This quantity of R-22 

required from recovery/reuse, estimated at 12,500 metric tons annually from 2010 to 2014, represents 20 

percent of the total R-22 servicing demand in 2010 growing to 29 percent in 2014. Figure 4-3 is a 

graphical representation of R-22 servicing demand from 2010 to 2020 and R-22 supply from 2010 to 2014 

based on the allocations set by EPA. 

Table 4-6: Actual R-22 Consumption Allocations (R-22 Metric Tons) 

 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 

Total R-22 servicing demand 62,500 57,900 53,200 48,400 43,600 38,800 18,200 

Total R-22 allocation amount 50,000 45,400 40,700 35,900 31,100 TBDa 0b

R-22 required from recovery/reuse 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 TBD 18,200 

% of total R-22 servicing demand supplied by 

R-22 required from recovery/reuse 20% 22% 23% 26% 29% TBD 100% 

a TBD: to be determined. EPA has not yet issued allowances from 2015 through 2019. 

b In 2020, a cap equal to 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

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a U.S. HCFC consumption cap expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using and ODP of 

0.055 for HCFC-22).

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

HCFC-22 (MT)

Recovered R-22 Needed to Satisfy

Remainder of Service Demand

R-22 Allocation Amount 

Total R-22 Service Demand 

U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

Figure 4-3: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand and EPA’s 2010-2014 Allocations of 

HCFC-22a

4.3 Factors Affecting Projections 

Several market dynamics affect the projections of future servicing needs for R-22. Certain equipment 

specification requirements, the transition to alternative refrigerants, the stockpiling of refrigerant as well as 

equipment manufactured with HCFCs for sale after the phaseout, and the import of equipment precharged with HCFC refrigerant can all potentially alter the projected servicing scenarios. Each of these 

issues is discussed further below. 

4.3.1 13 Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (SEER) 

In 2001, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) set a stricter seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER) 

standard for residential unitary ACs and heat pumps. The minimum efficiency standard of residential 

unitary ACs and heat pumps was raised by 30 percent to a 13 SEER for all such units manufactured for 

sale on or after January 23, 2006 (DOE 2001; DOE 2004). 

Residential AC equipment generally requires a larger charge size to meet this standard because 

efficiency improvements are often achieved by increasing the size of the evaporator and condenser, 

which in turn requires an increase in refrigerant charge. The average central AC unit sold in 2004 was 

approximately 11.5 SEER, with an average charge size of around 3.4 kilograms (7.5 pounds) (ARI 

2005).17 In 2007, sales indicated that approximately five out of every six AC units sold to homeowners 

were 13 SEER through June of 2007 (with the remainder 14 SEER or higher) (Skaer 2007).

Consequently, the amount of R-22 contained in new residential AC systems starting in 2006 has 

increased, resulting in an increase in projected servicing demand (assuming that service and leak losses, 

as a percentage of the equipment charge, do not change as a result). The projections provided in this 

17 Typical factory charges for cooling only equipment are around three kilograms (6.6 pounds); however, the average unit 

considered accounts for heat pumps, which have a higher charge size and make up between 15 to 25 percent of the residential AC 

and heat pump market (ARI 2005; Carrier Corporation 2005a). 

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analysis incorporate the additional R-22 that is expected to be needed to service higher efficiency 

residential AC equipment after 2010 (see Appendix A for more details). 

4.3.2 Transitioning to Alternative Refrigerants 

A wide range of alternative refrigerants found acceptable under EPA’s SNAP program are available in the 

AC and refrigeration sector. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and HFC-based alternatives, including R-134a, 

R-410A (composed of HFC-32/HFC-125), R-407C (composed of HFC-32/HFC-125/HFC-134a), R-404A 

(composed of HFC-125/HFC-143a/HFC-134a), and R-507A (composed of HFC-125/HFC-143a), are 

currently used in a variety of refrigeration and AC equipment. The pace of transition to equipment using 

these alternatives has varied by industry and type of equipment. Several AC and refrigeration equipment 

manufacturers have indicated that they have discontinued production of new equipment that uses R-22. 

(Hill Phoenix 2009; Hussmann 2009; Kysor/Warren 2009; Johnson Controls 2009).18 These actions are 

consistent with the actions found in the mid-1990s, when the refrigeration and AC industries phased out 

CFC refrigerants from new production chillers, refrigerators, motor vehicle air conditioners, and other 

products two or more years before the 1996 CFC consumption phaseout. 

HFC alternatives to R-22 are greenhouse gases (GHGs) with high global warming potentials. A factor 

adding to the uncertainty that may have affected decisions by entities regarding the timing of their 

transition away from R-22 is whether the future refrigerant market may be affected by potential restrictions 

on HFCs either through adoption of domestic or international commitments to reduce production, 

consumption and/or emissions. For example, in 2009 the U.S. House of Representatives passed 

legislation that included controls on HFCs though, at the time of this report, although the U.S. Senate has 

yet to taken action. The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) and Mauritius introduced a proposal to 

amend the Montreal Protocol to include controls on HFC production and consumption. The United States, 

Mexico, and Canada submitted a proposal that builds on the FSM and Mauritius proposal to be taken up 

by the Parties in November 2009. It remains to be seen what the details of any future HFC controls may 

be and how they would further delay or accelerate a transition away from existing equipment containing 

HCFC-22 and refrigerant blends containing HCFC-22 and/or HCFC-142b. 

In projecting servicing needs, this analysis accounts for delayed transition trends that maintain production 

of new HCFC-22 equipment until December 31, 2009, discussed in further detail below. Additionally, 

Appendix A contains the specific transitions used in the modeling for this analysis. 

Air-Conditioning Industry 

R-134a, R-410A, and R-407C are replacing R-22 in new stationary and mobile AC equipment. Some 

mobile AC equipment has been using alternatives since the early 1990s, with some buses and trains 

using R-134a, and some heavy rail cars using R-407C (WMATA 2005; Amtrak 2005; Motorcoach Training 

2005; Greyhound 2005; Carrier Corporation 2005b). Stationary AC equipment using R-410A has been 

commercially available since 1996 (HARDI 2004), and is expected to dominate the U.S. residential 

market in the future (EPA 2004b). 

Despite the availability of alternatives, more than 90 percent of residential AC split-systems sold in 2004 

were charged with R-22 (Honeywell 2005). According to a survey conducted by Emerson Climate 

Technologies in November 2007, 40 percent of the contractors and distributors said they would wait until 

2010 to convert their sales to equipment containing alternative refrigerant (Emerson 2007). The 

consumer preference is for the refrigerant that costs less; in the years leading up to 2010, R-22 has been 

cheaper than alternatives. However, the economics is changing and R-410A pricing is beginning to 

match that of R-22. Most residential AC equipment purchasers now prefer to buy equipment using R410A for equipment. For customers wishing to buy higher efficiency equipment, that is, greater than 13 

SEER, R-410A is often the only option (Johnson Controls 2009). 

18 Some manufacturers continue to manufacture R-22 outdoor units in 2009 to satisfy the replacement market in which only the 

outdoor units need to be replaced versus the entire system (Johnson Controls 2009). 

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To be conservative, the projections in this analysis are based on slower transitions to alternatives. For 

example, new sales of residential AC systems are modeled such that only 10 percent of the market 

adopts alternatives by the end of 2008 and the remainder of the market transitions completely by the end 

of 2009 (see Appendix A for more details). A more quickly paced adoption of alternatives by the ACmanufacturer and end-user community will have the effect of lowering the overall servicing demand of R22 charged equipment post-2010 and lessen the risk of potential shortfalls as projected in Scenario 20 of 

this analysis. 

Refrigeration Industry 

Industry experts have indicated that retail food refrigeration end-uses are transitioning to alternatives 

more quickly than AC end-uses; the projections in this analysis are based on modeling that reflects this 

industry’s input. Based on industry feedback, R-22 is currently the leading refrigerant in the U.S. 

supermarket industry representing about 35-40% of refrigerants used in existing stores (Verisae 2009). In 

comparison, the Vintaging Model currently assumes that 48% of supermarket systems installed in the 

U.S. use HCFC-22. Although the life expectancy of commercial refrigeration equipment is around 20 

years, supermarkets tend to remodel every 7 to 10 years, which offers supermarkets the opportunity to 

install new equipment that uses an alternative more often than the typical equipment lifetime would imply 

(Hill Phoenix 2005). It is estimated that only 5% of new refrigeration systems installed in 2009 are 

charged with R-22 (Hill Phoenix 2009; Hussmann 2009; Kysor/Warren 2009). Advanced refrigeration 

technologies (e.g., distributed systems and secondary loop systems) represent an estimated 40% of new 

equipment sales and are always charged with HFC refrigerants (Hill Phoenix 2009; Hussmann 2009). 

The current trend in the supermarket industry is to use HFC refrigerant blends, particularly R-404A and R507A. It is expected that the industry will continue to rely on HFC refrigerants but will trend toward blends 

with lower GWPs, such as R-407A and R-407C (Verisae 2009). 

4.3.3 Recovery and Reuse Practices 

As indicated in the total projected R-22 servicing demand scenarios presented in Section 4.2, recovered 

R-22 that is recycled, stockpiled, or reclaimed must increase to satisfy future servicing needs that cannot 

be met through virgin supplies alone. According to the scenarios presented in this section and the overall 

findings of this analysis: 

• In 2010, the amount of recovered refrigerant is projected to range from 5,900 to 14,800 metric tons, 

depending on the percentage of total available refrigerant from retired or converted equipment that is 

recovered and reused; 

• In 2015, when no more than 27,709 metric tons of virgin R-22 production and import is allowed under 

the cap, overall servicing demand is estimated to be 38,800 metric tons, therefore requiring at least 

11,091 metric tons of recovered R-22. Scenario 50 projects sufficient amounts of recovered material 

(i.e., 22,000 metric tons) to meet this demand, whereas, the projected quantities under Scenario 20 

does not (i.e., 8,800 metric tons, or approximately 20 percent lower than needed to prevent a 

shortfall). 19 

• In 2020, Scenario 50 projects sufficient supplies of recovered R-22 to meet projected 2020 servicing 

demand (i.e., 18,200 metric tons). Conversely, the estimated projections of 8,300 metric tons of 

recovered R-22 under Scenario 20 will not be enough to meet total projected demand, as no virgin 

manufacture is allowed under the cap. 

• The R-22 consumption allocations set by EPA for years 2010 to 2014 decrease annually, maintaining 

the supply of recovered HCFCs at a constant level, and resulting in recovered material comprising a 

greater proportion of the supply required to meet total demand each year. As such, the percentage of 

the total need to be met with reclaimed material will rise from 20 percent to 29 percent of total 

demand in 2014, which is intended to help facilitate meeting the estimated demand in 2015, of which 

at least 29% must be met with recovered material. The annual decrease in allowable virgin R-22 will 

19 Note that these numbers are calculated assuming the entire cap is allocated to HCFC-22 production, which is unlikely to occur 

due to the needs for continued production of other HCFCs. For example, a portion of the cap in 2010-2014 is allocated to other 

HCFCs.

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enable a smooth transition for the AC and refrigeration industry as it should foster greater recovery 

and reclamation of R-22. 

Although there is the potential for supply shortages after 2010, thorough maintenance practices during 

the lifetime of equipment, recovery practices at the time of equipment disposal or decommissioning, and 

the full penetration of reclaim and reuse practices can greatly reduce the likelihood of future shortfalls. 

The use of recovery procedures during the lifetime of equipment and at the time of decommissioning 

reduces potential losses to a future supply of recovered refrigerant. End-users of AC and refrigeration 

equipment must have equipment installed by trained technicians. They must also have their equipment 

properly maintained to reduce incidences of major leaks. Service technicians must take efforts to isolate 

components or recover refrigerants prior to service as venting (releasing) HCFC (and CFC and HFC) 

refrigerant when making repairs is illegal. Service practices that involve locating and repairing leaks in 

lieu of “topping off” leaking systems further ensure future supplies of used refrigerant. As with servicing 

procedures, the venting of refrigerant during decommissioning is illegal. The AC and refrigeration 

community, including end-users, service technicians, and all affected stakeholders, must position itself for 

future phaseouts of HCFCs by using proper recovery techniques and complying with regulations that are 

in place to promote the growth of recoverable and reusable R-22. 

Furthermore, the practice of reusing recovered and reclaimed R-22, while currently minimal (less than 

4,600 metric tons of HCFC-22 was reclaimed in 2008), can increase future supplies once fully realized. 

Should current reclamation levels of R-22 not increase significantly, a sufficient supply of reusable 

refrigerant will not be available to meet servicing demand projections. To reach the projected supply of 

recovered refrigerant necessary to meet demand, a three to five-fold increase in current (as of 2008) 

reclamation levels is required.20 

While there is expressed concern from stakeholders in the AC and refrigeration community that the 

current business model for R-22 reclamation and related infrastructure will not support projected demand, 

the annual step-down of R-22 allocations from 2010 to 2014 will help foster growth in the reclamation 

industry and help establish recovery and reclamation of R-22 as a standard operating procedure. With 

future supply of material being less than demand, this type of growth in this market is an essential 

component in the AC and refrigeration industry strategy to prepare for the HCFC phaseout. 

4.3.4 Recycling and Stockpiling Plans 

With proper storage tanks, a reserve of recovered R-22 can be collected, stored, and accessed to service 

equipment owned by the same company years later, when R-22 is expected to be less affordable and 

less available. A report released in 1995 by the Food Marketing Institute (FMI) included a survey issued 

to supermarket operators on the use of refrigerant management plans (RMPs) as a strategy to ensure an 

adequate supply of CFC refrigerants for use after the December 31, 1995, CFC production phaseout. Of 

those surveyed, 52 percent were banking recovered CFC refrigerant, an activity adopted primarily by 

store operators with 11 or more stores (FMI 1995). 

Although the extent to which such refrigerant management plans for HCFCs are currently in place is 

unknown, it is possible that the AC and refrigeration industry will increasingly adopt such plans and bank 

refrigerant in preparation for the HCFC phaseout, especially those that own a large number of stores. In 

addition to supermarkets, businesses that operate chillers, industrial process refrigeration, and/ or 

multiple AC units, as well as other multi-facility operations, have the opportunity to internally bank 

refrigerant to meet future servicing needs. 

While refrigerant banking is a strategy that companies may pursue, the lack of data has limited the 

projections in this report from quantifying stockpiles from refrigerant management plans. The banking of 

refrigerant may affect the results of this analysis by increasing future availability of recovered and 

20 This increase assumes that the demand projected by the Vintaging Model would be met solely by reclaimed refrigerant. Sources 

other than reclaimed refrigerant could also meet this demand, including recovery, recycling and direct reuse of refrigerant in the 

owner’s equipment (without reclamation), stockpiled refrigerant, and potential supply of refrigerant from used imports. 

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reusable refrigerant. Stockpiling refrigerant ensures additional supply for a given user for later years, but 

there is some concern refrigerant will not be stockpiled due to occupying floorspace needed for more 

profitable inventory (Dyslin 2006). Furthermore, a large end-user stockpiling R-22, which may otherwise 

re-enter the market after being reclaimed, could result in the premature shortage of reusable refrigerant 

for other R-22 users (see Appendix A for more information). 

Stockpiling of virgin R-22 also may be pursued, particularly prior to 2020 when production is entirely 

phased out; however, it is premature to state the extent to which this option will be technically and 

economically viable. As such, projections on future inventories of virgin stockpiles are not explored 

further in this analysis. 

4.3.5 R-22 Economics 

Another factor that affects the projections of R-22 servicing supply and demand is the cost of virgin and 

reclaimed R-22. The relatively low cost of virgin R-22 in the market for the past several years has 

weakened demand for reclaimed refrigerant, which is more expensive. Over time, as the supply of virgin 

R-22 decreases, it is expected that the demand for recovered and reclaimed refrigerant as well as R-22 

alternatives will increase. To that end, reclaimers of R-22 and manufacturers of R-22 alternatives will 

experience economies of scale and their prices will fall, causing a shift in pricing structures. However, 

spot shortages of R-22 may occur, as was seen with the phaseout of CFC-12. 

As a result of the increase in demand for this refrigerant, along with other economic factors, R-22 pricing 

has continued to increase. Market signals, such as this one, will likely encourage an increase in the 

demand for reclamation and the transition to alternative refrigerants. 

4.3.6 Pre-charged Imports 

AC equipment pre-charged with HCFCs is currently imported into the United States predominantly from 

Korea, Brazil, and China. In recent years, there has been a shift to overseas manufacturing; the number 

of imports of AC equipment into the United States is on the rise (UNEP 2003a; U.S. Census Bureau 

2009). Central AC systems from foreign manufacturers such as Samsung, LG, and Haier are entering the 

U.S. market. Additionally, some U.S. manufacturers are starting to relocate plants to Mexico and other 

countries (Honeywell 2005), while others import equipment from international manufacturers that is then 

sold under their labels (HARDI 2005). 

Effective January 1, 2010, domestic manufacturers of AC and refrigeration appliances will not be able to 

charge newly manufactured appliances with newly produced or imported HCFC-22 or HCFC-142b, and 

thus will not be introducing appliances containing these newly produced substances into interstate 

commerce. However, this regulatory provision does not lead to similar results for AC and refrigeration 

equipment that has been “pre-charged” with refrigerant before entering the United States. Should R-22 

pre-charged units continue to enter the United States after 2010—with estimates indicating that an 

average annual total of pre-charged R-22 imports could range from 9.6 million to 12.5 million units—it 

would have the effect of increasing the overall servicing demand of R-22 charged equipment post-2010, 

adding further concern to the risk of potential shortfalls as projected in Scenario 20 of this analysis (and 

Scenarios 10 and 15, as provided in Appendix C).21 

To that end, EPA is finalizing a January 1, 2010, ban prohibiting the sale or distribution of pre-charged 

units imported after that date. Further details regarding the ban on import of appliances pre-charged with 

HCFCs is available in EPA’s Final Rule and in EPA’s docket, at Docket ID No. EPA–HQ–OAR–2007–

0163. 

21 This analysis was conducted under the assumption that a ban on imported pre-charged imports would become effective 

beginning in 2010.
The U.S Phaseout of HCFCs: 

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5. Conclusion 

On January 1, 2010, production and import of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 will be phased out except for 

on-going service needs for equipment manufactured on or before December 31, 2009. To support 

development of the allocation levels of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 that will allow the U.S. to comply with 

the Montreal Protocol’s 2010, 2015, and 2020 reduction steps, this report provides projections on the 

quantity of R-22 needed for servicing AC and refrigeration equipment manufactured on or before 

December 31, 2009. 

 

Under the projected scenarios developed in this analysis, the AC and refrigeration industry is facing the 

potential risk of a shortage of R-22 starting in 2010 if practices to recover and reuse refrigerant are not 

increased. The findings indicate significant variance in the projected supply of recovered refrigerant 

available to meet demand depending on the future recovery and reuse of refrigerant. Only under 

scenarios with higher refrigerant recovery and reuse are supplies projected to satisfy future R-22 

servicing needs using both recovered refrigerant and limited amounts of virgin refrigerant. Results from 

this analysis show that given the final R-22 allocation of 50,000 metric tons in 2010, in order to meet 

projected servicing demand, the remaining 12,500 metric tons (i.e., 20 percent of total demand) must be 

supplied by recovered R-22 to avoid a shortfall. Furthermore, by 2015, a year in which allocations are yet 

to be determined, a minimum of a 26 percent recovery rate yielding 29 percent of total demand is 

necessary to avoid a shortfall in demand. 

The total projected HCFC-22 servicing demand in 2010, 2015, and 2020 compared to a 100% allocation 

of the HCFC consumption cap are summarized below along with concluding points on the implications of 

the two recovery and reuse scenarios as well as EPA’s actual allocation for 2010. 

• In 2010, a projected servicing demand of 62,500 metric tons of R-22, or about 90 percent of the 2010 

consumption cap, is estimated. The total R-22 allocation amount for 2010 equals 50,000 metric tons, 

meaning that the R-22 required to meet the remaining service demand is 12,500 metric tons. Under 

Scenario 20, it is projected that not all of the servicing demand that remains after the allocated 

amount of 50,000 metric tons can be met through the recovered supply of R-22 (as shown in Table 5-

1 with an estimated shortfall of 6,600 metric tons). 

Table 5-1: Comparison of R-22 Servicing Demand Projections (Metric Tons) 

and Necessary Supply Projections by Source (Metric Tons and Percent), 2010 

2010 

Scenario 20: 20% 

Recovery Rate 

Scenario 50: 50% 

Recovery Rate 

Capa 69,273 

Demand 62,500 

Total R-22 allocation amount 50,000 

Necessary Supply 

Recovered 5,900 (9%) 14,800 (24%) 

Virgin 56,600 (91%) 47,600 (76%) 

Shortfall 6,600 (11%) 0 (0%) a HCFC consumption cap expressed in R-22 metric tons to represent an allocation of 100 

percent of the cap assigned to R-22. 

Source: Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a. 

• In 2015, a projected servicing demand of 38,800 metric tons of R-22 is estimated, which is over the 

2015 consumption cap (expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons) by 40 percent (i.e., 2,291 metric 

tons) under Scenario 20. The total R-22 allocation amount between 2015 and 2019 will be 

determined in a future EPA rulemaking. Under a scenario of higher recovery and reuse (Scenario 50), 

Table 5-2 indicates that supplies from recovered R-22 can satisfy enough of the demand such that a 

shortage of refrigerant supply does not occur if the entire cap is allocated to R-22. However, in the 

20% recovery rate scenario, a shortfall of 2,291 metric tons is projected. 

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December 2009 Page 28

Table 5-2: Comparison of R-22 Servicing Demand Projections (Metric Tons) 

and Necessary Supply Projections by Source (Metric Tons and Percent), 2015 

2015 

Scenario 20: 20% 

Recovery Rate 

Scenario 50: 50% 

Recovery Rate 

Capa 27,709 

Demand 38,800 

Total Allocation Amount TBD 

Necessary Supply 

Recovered 8,800 (23%) 22,000 (57%) 

Virgin 30,000 (77%) 16,800 (43%) 

Shortfall 2,291 (6%) 0 (0%) a HCFC consumption cap expressed in R-22 metric tons to represent an allocation 

of 100 percent of the cap assigned to R-22. 

Source: Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a. 

 

• In 2020, only 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout 

schedule prevents any allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. A projected servicing demand 

of 18,200 metric tons of R-22 is estimated (Table 5-3). For consistency purposes, the HCFC 

consumption cap is expressed in R-22 metric tons in Table 5-3 to illustrate that the necessary 

supply of virgin R-22 under Scenario 20 is greater than the 2020 HCFC consumption cap. Under 

Scenario 20, only 46 percent of servicing demand is projected to be met with recovered refrigerant, 

leading to a shortfall of 9,900 metric tons of R-22. Under Scenario 50, this demand is projected to 

be met entirely with recovered refrigerant. 

Table 5-3: Comparison of R-22 Servicing Demand Projections (Metric Tons) 

and Necessary Supply Projections by Source (Metric Tons and Percent), 2020 

2020 

Scenario 20: 20% 

Recovery Rate 

Scenario 50: 50% 

Recovery Rate 

Capa 1,385 

Demand 18,200 

Total Allocation Amountb 0 

Necessary Supply 

Recovered 8,300 (46%) 18,200 (100%) 

Virgin 9,900 (54%) 0 (0%) 

Shortfall 9,900 (54%) 0 (0%) a HCFC consumption cap expressed in R-22 metric tons. 

bIn 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the 

phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any allocation of the remaining baseline to R22. 

Source: Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a. 

Projections of future HCFC refrigerant supply and demand range depending on various market trends as 

addressed in this report. These projections provide the information necessary for taking initial steps in 

determining post 2010 servicing needs for R-22 equipment and ensuring that supplies are available by 

alerting the AC and refrigeration community of the critical need to adequately prepare for future HCFC 

phaseout dates. Continued collaboration with the AC and refrigeration community is needed to ensure 

that servicing demand for HCFC-based systems can be met in 2010 and beyond. 
The U.S Phaseout of HCFCs: 

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Appendix A: Methodology Used to Calculate Projected 

Servicing Needs 

This appendix outlines the methodology used to calculate the projected servicing needs of AC and 

refrigeration equipment using R-22. This appendix contains three sections: 

• Section A.1 provides an overview of EPA’s Vintaging Model (EPA 2007a), which was used to 

establish the estimates of units of equipment using R-22 and R-22 servicing demand beyond 

2010. 

• Section A.2 discusses the limitations to the servicing projections presented in this report. 

A.1 EPA’s Vintaging Model 

Box A-1: Developing and Maintaining EPA’s Vintaging Model 

The Vintaging Model synthesizes data from a variety of sources, 

including: 

• EPA’s ODS Tracking System and submissions to the SNAP 

program both maintained by the U.S. EPA Stratospheric 

Protection Division; 

• Published literature from the United Nations Environment 

Programme (UNEP) Technical Options Committees, the 

Alternative Fluorocarbons Environmental Acceptability Study 

(AFEAS), and those provided in industry-related and EPA 

conference proceedings; and 

• Numerous representatives at companies and trade 

associations, such as the Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric 

Policy, the Air-Conditioning Heating and Refrigeration Institute 

(AHRI), the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers 

(AHAM), and the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers. 

In some instances the unpublished information that EPA uses in the 

model is classified as Confidential Business Information (CBI). The 

annual emissions inventories of chemicals are aggregated in such a 

way that CBI cannot be inferred. 

The Vintaging Model is continually updated to improve assumptions 

and modeling techniques and refine inputs based on information 

received from these sources. EPA shares the revised assumptions 

and results of model improvements with industry through publications 

such as this one as well as through presentations, such as those given 

at the April 2007 Spring Meetings of AHRI. 

In both 2006 and 2007, the model was updated based on information 

obtained from industry as part of the research effort for this analysis. 

HCFC-22 projections of servicing needs for the AC and refrigeration 

end-uses presented in this report represent model output based on a 

model run developed in 2007 (EPA 2007a). While several updates 

were made to the inputs of EPA’s Vintaging Model since 2007, these 

updates were mainly with respect to assumptions on ODS alternatives, 

and, hence, output from a more recent model run would only minimally 

alter HCFC-22 projections as presented in this report, if at all. 

EPA’s Vintaging Model was developed as a tool for estimating the annual chemical emissions from 

industrial sectors that have historically 

used ODS in their products. Emissions 

are estimated from the following end-use 

sectors: 1) Air-Conditioning and 

Refrigeration; 2) Foams; 3) Aerosols; 4) 

Solvents; 5) Fire-Extinguishing; and 6) 

Sterilants. Within these sectors, there are 

over 60 independently modeled end-uses. 

The model requires information on the 

market growth for each of the end-uses, 

as well as a history and projection of the 

market transition from ODS to 

alternatives. As ODS are phased out, a 

percentage of the market share originally 

filled by the ODS is allocated to 

substitutes. 

The model, named for its method of 

tracking the emissions of annual 

“vintages” of new equipment that enter 

into service, is a “bottom-up” model. This 

means it models the consumption of 

controlled ozone-depleting substances 

and their substitutes based on: 

1) Estimates of the quantity of 

equipment or products sold, 

serviced, and retired or retrofitted 

each year, and 

2) The quantity of the chemical 

required to manufacture and/or 

maintain the equipment. 

The model makes use of this market 

information to build an inventory of in-use 

stocks of equipment and quantities of 

ODS/ODS substitutes in each of the enduses. 

Emissions are estimated by applying 

annual leak rates, service emission rates, 

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and disposal emission rates to consumption data for each vintage of equipment. Emissions from AC and 

refrigeration equipment are split into two categories: emissions during equipment lifetime and disposal 

emissions. The first category includes the amount of compound leaked during equipment operation and 

the amount of compound emitted during service. Consumption required to service or refill equipment is 

driven by the demand to replace such losses, and therefore, emissions during the lifetime of equipment 

are equal to consumption for servicing (since it is assumed that all leaked refrigerant is eventually 

replaced). Emissions, and therefore, consumption from leakage and servicing can be expressed as 

follows: 

Esj = (la + ls) × Σ Qcj-i+1 for i=1→k 

Where: 

Es = Emissions from Equipment Serviced. Emissions in year j from normal leakage and 

servicing of equipment. 

la = Annual Leak Rate. Average annual leak rate during normal equipment operation 

(expressed as a percentage of total chemical charge). 

ls = Service Leak Rate. Average leakage during equipment servicing (expressed as a 

percentage of total chemical charge). 

Qc = Quantity of Chemical in New Equipment. Total amount of a specific chemical used to 

charge new equipment in a given year by weight. 

i = Counter, runs from 1 to lifetime (k). 

j = Year of emission. 

k = Lifetime. The average lifetime of the equipment. 

The assumptions used in this calculation range by equipment, refrigerant, and vintage, reflecting that as 

new technologies replace older ones, improvements in their leak, service, and disposal emission rates 

are assumed to occur. 

For the purpose of this analysis, the following data from EPA’s Vintaging Model were compiled and 

summarized for the AC and refrigeration sector: 

1) Consumption for Servicing, which is equal to the demand to service (i.e., refill) existing 

equipment. These data are back-calculated using service and leak emissions because the 

quantity emitted during the lifetime of equipment drives the demand to replace such losses. 

These estimates are further distinguished between consumption of virgin and recycled/reclaimed 

chemical. The model assumes that a certain percentage of refrigerant, which varies by end-use, 

is recovered from discarded equipment. The model then assumes a “best-case” scenario in 

which all recovered and re-usable refrigerant re-enters the market. See Section A.2 for further 

discussion on this “recovery pool.” 

2) Number of Units of Equipment, which is equal to, for “year X”’, the number of units existing in 

“year X-1” plus the number of new units produced in “year X” minus the number of units disposed 

in “year X”. 

For example: 

No. of Units in 1999 = No. of Units in 1998 + New Units in 1999 – Units Disposed in 1999 

Estimates from EPA’s Vintaging Model are often cross-checked with actual historical data from EPA’s 

ODS Tracking System, which tracks actual ODS production and consumption (including import and 

export) by U.S. companies. The Model’s virgin manufacture parameter is considered to be most 

comparable to the Montreal Protocol’s definition of consumption (i.e., production plus imports minus 

exports). In EPA’s Vintaging Model, the Virgin Manufacture parameter is calculated to be any need for 

consumption (either for new equipment or servicing) that cannot be met through recycled or recovered 

material; no distinction is made in the Vintaging Model between whether that need is met through 

domestic manufacturing or imports. As shown in Figure A-1, estimates from the model generally align to 

actual consumption from 1993 to 2008. 

December 2009 Page 30
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Figure A-1: Comparison of EPA’s Vintaging Model Estimates for Virgin Manufacture 

and ODS Tracking System Data for HCFC-22 Consumption 

6,000 

5,000 

ODP Weighted Metric Tons 4,000 Vintaging Model Estimates 

ODS Tracking System Data 

3,000 

2,000 

1,000 

0 

1993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008 

Source: EPA's ODS Tracking System, Vintaging Model (VM IO file_11-12-07) 

The U.S Phaseout of HCFCs: 

Projected Servicing Needs in the U.S. Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Sector 

Table A-1 presents the input assumptions used to develop the projections in this report. The loss rates 

represent the percent of the total charge that leaks in a given year plus the amount, on an annual basis, 

emitted at service, expressed as a percentage of total chemical charge. Because the amount lost from 

leaks and servicing is annualized, equipment is assumed to reach the end of its lifetime with a full 

charge.22

 EPA’s Vintaging Model then applies a “recovery rate,” which refers to the percent of total 

charge of the equipment that is recovered and reused at the time of disposal. These recovery rates 

represent averages, intended to capture the range of possible practices occurring at disposal. 

Growth rate assumptions are also provided in Table A-1. The growth rates refer to the growth of the 

equipment market for each end-use as a whole and are not specific to the refrigerant. When the 

transition to different equipment and different refrigerants occur, the input assumptions are adjusted to 

account for these changes. 

22 For the majority of equipment types, the assumption that equipment contains a full charge at the end of life is theoretically 

applicable. To ensure proper and continual functioning of equipment, homeowners and businesses typically have their airconditioning and refrigeration systems serviced regularly. Technicians will check these systems for leaks using proper techniques 

and if a loss of refrigerant is found, will refill the system to ensure it is functioning efficiently after repairing any leaking seals or 

damaged components. Note that this assumption may not be appropriate for smaller equipment types such as window units but is 

applied consistently for modeling purposes. 

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Table A-1: Input Assumptions, Years 2005 to 2020 

Current 

Refrigerant 

Equipment Type and 

Original ODS Refrigerant 

Charge 

Sizea

Loss 

Rate 

Growth 

Rateb 

Recovery 

Rate 

Lifetime 

(Years) 

AC Equipment 

R-22 

HCFC-22 Residential Unitary A/C (2005-

2006) 3 12% 1.9% 35% 15 

R-22 

HCFC-22 Residential Unitary A/C (2006-

2020) 5 12% 1.9% 35% 15 

R-22 R-22 Small Commercial Unitary AC 8 11% 2.5% 40% 15 

R-22 R-22 Large Commercial Unitary AC 15 10% 2.5% 40% 15 

R-22 R-22 Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps 4 5% 2.5% 57% 20 

R-22 R-22 Dehumidifiers 0 1% 0.2% 50% 11 

R-22 R-22 Packaged Terminal Units 1 5% 2.5% 35% 12 

R-22 R-22 Window Units 1 1% 5.0% 50% 12 

R-22 R-12 School & Tour Buses 5 10% 2.6% 50% 12 

R-22 R-22 Transit Buses 8 44% 2.6% 50% 12 

R-22 R-22 Trains 22 44% 2.6% 50% 5 

R-22 R-11 Centrifugal Chillers 700 5% 0.5% 80% 25 

R-22 R-12 Centrifugal Chillers 721 5% 0.5% 80% 27 

R-22 Reciprocating Chillers 230 1% 0.2% 80% 20 

R-22 Screw Chillers 300 1% 0.5% 80% 20 

R-22 Scroll Chillers 240 1% 0.5% 80% 20 

R-22 R-500 Chillers 926 5% 0.5% 80% 27 

Refrigeration Equipment 

R-22 R-12 Cold Storage <0.01 20% 2.5% 80% 20 

R-22 R-22 Cold Storage <0.01 20% 2.5% 80% 20 

R-22 R-502 Cold Storage <0.01 20% 2.5% 80% 20 

R-502 R-502 Cold Storage <0.01 25% 2.5% 80% 20 

R-22 CFC-12 Large Retail Food 1,800 30% 1.7% 80% 15 

R-502 CFC-12 Large Retail Food 1,800 33% 1.7% 80% 15 

R-502 R-502 Large Retail Food 1,800 33% 1.7% 80% 15 

R-22 R-502 Large Retail Food 1,800 30% 1.7% 80% 15 

R-22 HCFC-22 Medium Retail Food 3 8% 1.7% 80% 20 

R-22 R-12 Small Retail Food 1 8% 1.7% 35% 20 

R-22 R-12 Transport 8 28% 2.5% 35% 12 

R-402A R-12 Transport 8 28% 2.5% 35% 12 

R-401A R-502 Transport 8 28% 2.5% 10% 12 

R-502 R-502 Transport 8 33% 2.5% 10% 12 

R-22 R-11 Industrial Process Refrigeration 952 10% 2.5% 80% 25 

R-22 R-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration 992 10% 2.5% 80% 25 

R-401A R-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration 850 5% 2.5% 90% 25 

R-22 R-22 Industrial Process Refrigeration 9,100 12% 2.5% 80% 25 

Source: VM IO File_11-12-2007 

a Charge size presented in kilograms. Cold storage charge size presented in kilograms/cubic foot. 

b The growth rate applies to new consumption/virgin manufacture for products entering the market. For example, in the window units market, 

any year’s consumption for new equipment is five percent greater than the previous year’s consumption. 

Table A-2 presents the assumptions used to model the transition from R-22 to alternatives for each end 

use. Only those end-uses that have been using R-22, or have in whole or in part transitioned to use R22, are shown. The first column of the table presents the R-22 equipment types by the refrigerants that 

December 2009 Page 32
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they originally used. The second column presents the refrigerants that enter the market and are used in 

new equipment in place of R-22.23 These refrigerants begin to enter the new-equipment market in the 

year presented in the third column and fully penetrate this market by the date presented in the fourth 

column. The final column indicates the percent of the R-22 new-equipment market that the given 

substitute refrigerant replaces by the transition end date. All transitions are assumed to occur linearly 

between the transition start and end dates. By combining multiple transitions to different refrigerants and 

over different time periods, the Vintaging Model mimics actual, non-linear transitions that may occur. 

Table A-2: Transition to Alternatives Assumptions of EPA’s 

Vintaging Model for R-22 Refrigeration and AC Equipmenta

1 2 3 4 5 

R-22 Equipment Type and 

Original ODS Refrigerant Substitute Start Date End Date Market Penetration of Substituteb 

HCFC-22 Residential Unitary AC 

R-407C 2006 2009 1% 

2009 2010 5% 

R-410A 

2001 2005 5% 

2006 2009 8% 

2009 2010 81% 

HCFC-22 Small Commercial Unitary AC R-410A 

1996 2000 3% 

2001 2005 18% 

2006 2009 8% 

2009 2010 71% 

HCFC-22 Large Commercial Unitary AC 

R-407C 2006 2009 1% 

2009 2010 5% 

R-410A 

2001 2005 5% 

2006 2009 9% 

2009 2010 81% 

HCFC-22 Water & Ground Source Heat 

Pumps 

R-407C 

2000 2006 5% 

2006 2009 3% 

2009 2010 23% 

R-410A 

2001 2006 5% 

2006 2009 5% 

2009 2010 41% 

R-134a 2000 2009 2% 

2009 2010 18% 

HCFC-22 Dehumidifiers R-134a 1997 1997 89% 

R-410A 2007 2010 11% 

HCFC-22 Packaged Terminal Units R-410A 2006 2009 10% 

2009 2010 90% 

HCFC-22 Window Units 

R-407C 2003 2009 3% 

2009 2010 35% 

R-410A 2003 2009 7% 

2009 2010 55% 

CFC-12 Tour Buses R-134a 2006 2007 100% 

HCFC-22 Transit Buses R-134a 1995 2009 100% 

HCFC-22 Trains R-134a 2002 2009 50% 

R-407 2002 2009 50% 

 

23 These transition assumptions are for new equipment only; they do not imply that the original equipment was retrofitted to the 

alternative refrigerants. 

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1 2 3 4 5 

R-22 Equipment Type and Market Penetration of Substitute Start Date End Date Original ODS Refrigerant Substituteb 

CFC-12 Cold Storage R-404A 1996 2010 75% 

R-507A 1996 2010 25% 

 

HCFC-22 Cold Storage 

R-404A 1996 2009 8% 

2009 2010 68% 

R-507A 1996 2009 3% 

2009 2010 23% 

R-502 Cold Storage 

R-404A 1996 2010 38% 

R-507A 1996 2010 12% 

Other 1996 2010 50% 

CFC-11 Industrial Process Refrigeration R-134a 1995 2010 100% 

CFC-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration 

R-134a 1995 2010 15% 

R-404A 1995 2010 50% 

R-410A 1999 2010 20% 

R-507A 1995 2010 15% 

HCFC-22 Industrial Process 

Refrigeration 

R-134a 1995 2009 2% 

2009 2010 14% 

R-404A 1995 2009 5% 

2009 2010 45% 

R-410A 1999 2009 2% 

2009 2010 18% 

R-507A 1995 2009 2% 

2009 2010 14% 

CFC-12 Retail Food 

R-404A 2000 2009 8% 

R-507A 2000 2009 3% 

R-134a 1993 1995 90% 

HCFC-22 Retail Food 

R-404A 

1995 2000 18% 

2000 2005 32% 

2005 2010 18% 

R-507A 

1995 2000 8% 

2000 2005 14% 

2005 2010 12% 

R-502 Retail Food 

R-404A 

1995 2000 18% 

2000 2005 32% 

2005 2010 18% 

R-507A 

1995 2000 8% 

2000 2005 14% 

2005 2010 12% 

CFC-12 Transport R-134a 1995 1999 100% 

R-502 Transportc R-134a 1993 1995 55% 

R-404A 1993 1995 45% 

HCFC-22 Screw Chillers 

R-134a 2000 2009 9% 

2009 2010 81% 

R-407C 2000 2009 1% 

2009 2010 9% 

HCFC-22 Scroll Chillers R-134a 2000 2009 9% 

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1 2 3 4 5 

R-22 Equipment Type and Market Penetration of Substitute Start Date End Date Original ODS Refrigerant Substituteb 

2009 2010 81% 

R-407C 2000 2009 1%

2009 2010 9%

CFC-12 Reciprocating Chillers R-410A 2010 2020 40% 

CFC-11 Centrifugal Chillers R-134a 2000 2010 100% 

CFC-12 Centrifugal Chillers R-134a 2000 2010 100% 

R-500 Chillers R-134a 2000 2010 100% 

Source: VM IO File_11-12-2007 

a Interim transitions (e.g., from a CFC to HCFC-22 to HFCs) are not shown. For example, the retail food new-equipment market that 

originally used R-12 first transitioned from R-12 to R-502 and then to R-22. Then, between 1995 and 2010, 67 percent of the R-22 newequipment market is assumed to transition to R-404A and the remaining 33 percent to R-507A.

bThe market penetration of the substitute represents the percent of the R-22 new-equipment market that is replaced by the 

substitute refrigerant. 

c

The R-502 transport refrigeration market transitions directly to R-134a and R-404A. There is no interim transition to R-22. 

A.2 Limitations and Caveats 

This analysis utilized the best data available from various sources. Nonetheless, when making 

projections several assumptions are required. The following caveats should be noted. 

Recycled or Reclaimed Refrigerant 

EPA’s Vintaging Model was used to determine the quantities of R-22 from existing (recycled or reclaimed) 

sources that can meet post-2010 servicing needs and the remaining quantities required through virgin 

manufacture. For a given year, the model assumes that a certain percentage of refrigerant, which varies 

by end-use, is recovered from discarded equipment, while the remainder is emitted.24 The model 

aggregates the quantities recovered but does not distinguish the “pool” of refrigerant between quantities 

that are reclaimed versus those that are recycled. The model then assumes that the entire pool of 

recovered refrigerant re-enters the market within the same year. Any additional demand for refrigerant 

above that which is assumed to be met by recovered refrigerant is calculated to be virgin manufacture. 

The recovery pool and the remaining virgin manufacture are evaluated only at the most aggregate level, 

across all end-uses, and not at the end-use level, as the model does not differentiate between virgin and 

recycled refrigerant when calculating demand for each end-use. This model attribute reflects a more 

realistic scenario in that reclaimers are not likely to only sell back to the end-use market sector from which 

the used refrigerant originated; rather, reclaimed refrigerant can be retailed to the overall AC and 

refrigeration industry. 

Under this modeled approach, the model does not consider the quantity of refrigerant that companies 

send off for destruction after equipment is decommissioned. Although the quantities of destroyed 

refrigerant are very small, they are not subtracted from the recovered pool, so the quantity available for 

reuse may be slightly overestimated in the model. Additionally, the model does not account for any 

stockpiling of recovered refrigerant beyond a one-year timeframe, as discussed in Section 4.3. To the 

extent that stockpiling has occurred over the last few years, the quantity of recovered refrigerant modeled 

as re-entering the market may be overestimated in earlier years (i.e., when refrigerant is banked), and the 

quantity modeled as re-entering the market in later years may be underestimated (i.e., when the 

accumulated stockpile is accessed as a source). 

 

24 In the base model, the percentage recovered at disposal varies by end-use; however, for the recovery scenarios presented in this 

report (e.g. Scenario 20 and Scenario 50), this variable was set at a constant percent. 

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December 2009 Page 36

Pre-Charged Appliance Components 

Part of the policy-setting process is the determination allowing the sale and distribution after January 1, 

2010, of R-22 pre-charged appliance components (e.g., condensing units, line sets, expansion valves) 

that are manufactured before January 1, 2010, and used for the purpose of servicing existing (installed 

pre-2010) appliances. Existing R-22 equipment remaining in the installed base may be serviced with 

components that were made and pre-charged before 2010. The model assumes that some refrigerant is 

required at service, but does not distinguish whether this refrigerant comes within pre-charged 

components or is added from bulk quantities (e.g. cylinders). 

The Vintaging Model assumes that components will continue to be available for usual repairs of existing 

equipment; average lifetimes for R-22 equipment assumed in the Vintaging model account for variations 

in the useful life of equipment caused by early retirement, extended use, or the use of replacement parts 

during servicing. Hence, the analysis presented in this report reflects a situation where the sale and 

distribution of either a) pre-charged appliance components, or b) uncharged appliance components and 

refrigerant from bulk quantities is available for repair of the installed based in 2010 and beyond. If the 

analysis were to reflect otherwise, the average lifetimes of equipment would have to be truncated to 

account for early retirement associated with the lack of availability of appliance components (and/or 

refrigerant) for basic repair jobs. 

Date of Sale versus Date of Installation of HCFC-22 Units 

It is feasible and potentially common for some AC and refrigeration appliances to be purchased in one 

year and installed in another year. Such would be the case, for example, for units designated for 

construction projects that have received building code approval and entered into a binding contract in one 

year but are completed in some future year. The Vintaging Model relies on shipment data of newly sold 

AC and refrigeration equipment to help estimate new units entering the market for a given year. 

Adjustments to shipment data to reflect the date of installation are not made—shipment data is the 

closest and best proxy to installation for the purposes of modeling. Thus, the model assumes the year of 

installation to be the same as the year of shipment. Any equipment modeled as “shipped” in 2009, for 

example, is therefore already inclusive of equipment installed post 2010. Upon installation, equipment 

lifetime and servicing demand begin to be modeled. 

It is assumed in the model that the entire fleet of 2009 units within a given end-use are being retired in the 

same year, whereas, in reality some of these units may instead be installed a year or two after shipment, 

starting their lifetime and servicing demand a year or two after the shipment date, and hence, retiring a 

year or two after the retirement of the rest of the fleet. Therefore, the model is not accurately reflecting 

the actual start and end date for servicing demand for this subset of equipment. Instead, the model uses 

an average lifetime for each unique equipment type. This average is intended to account for units that 

are used for a few years as well as those that are used well beyond their assumed useful life. Given the 

use of an average lifetime in the model, variations of a year or two between shipment and installation date 

should fall within “normal” fluctuations in lifetime seen in actual equipment use. Additionally, residential 

and smaller commercial refrigeration and AC appliances have lifetimes of 15 years or shorter. Thus, any 

such equipment entering the market after 2005 is assumed to remain in service beyond 2020, when all 

HCFC-22 consumption will be phased out in the United States. Likewise, equipment entering the market 

in 2010 or 2011 would be assumed to be in service well beyond the 2020 milestone.
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Appendix B: HCFC Projections by End-Use 

This Appendix provides estimates of the projected installed base of R-22 equipment by end-use and the 

projected quantities of R-22 needed to service AC and refrigeration equipment. Descriptions of end-uses 

are provided in Section 3 of the report. For the purpose of this analysis, data on HCFC blend 

consumption for servicing are divided among the corresponding HCFC constituent(s) of that blend, 

according to the nominal percent composition. However, to accurately portray the number of units 

containing R-22, blends are not disaggregated when presenting the number of units of equipment (i.e., a 

unit running on a blend containing HCFC-22 counts as one unit). 

Table B-1 presents the number of units of equipment using R-22 (or a blend containing R-22) that are 

estimated to be in use in 2007, 2010, 2015, and 2020. These estimates were developed based on EPA’s 

Vintaging Model, which takes into account recent input from industry representatives (EPA 2007a). 

Sections 3.1 and 3.2 provide an overview of these AC and refrigeration end-uses. 

Table B-1: Estimated Number of R-22 Units Installeda

Equipment Type 2007 2010 2015 2020 

Window Units 75,031,300 74,178,600 41,559,500 4,102,700 

Packaged Terminal Units 2,719,200 2,478,800 1,355,100 123,100 

Residential Unitary AC 51,500,000 46,884,600 29,197,700 10,709,100 

Small Commercial Unitary AC 18,821,200 17,097,500 10,666,800 4,291,400 

Large Commercial Unitary AC 1,982,200 1,849,900 1,208,600 505,200 

Chillers 417,500 443,900 326,300 202,800 

Dehumidifiers 1,453,300 1,282,100 670,200 0 

Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps 1,445,700 1,392,000 1,058,200 681,000 

Other Mobile AC (Bus & Train AC) 44,900 25,900 6,700 0 

Subtotal AC 153,415,300 145,633,300 86,049,100 20,615,300 

Retail Food 4,452,900 3,770,900 2,107,300 924,700 

Refrigerated Transport 4,900 0 0 0 

Industrial Process Refrigeration 8,500 8,700 7,500 5,600 

Subtotal Refrigeration 4,466,300 3,779,600 2,114,800 930,300 

Total 157,881,600 149,412,900 88,163,900 21,545,600 aCold Storage is not shown in this table because the model estimates this end-use based on cubic feet of 

storage, rather than number of units. 

Table B-2 presents the metric tons of R-22 estimated to be needed to service AC and refrigeration 

equipment in 2007, 2010, 2015, and 2020. 

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December 2009 Page 38

Table B-2: Projected R-22 Servicing Demand (Metric Tons)

Equipment Type 2007 2010 2015 2020 

Window Units 300 300 100 <50 

Packaged Terminal Units 100 100 <50 <50 

Residential Unitary AC 21,700 20,700 13,500 6,100 

Small Commercial Unitary AC 15,600 14,100 8,800 3,500 

Large Commercial Unitary AC 3,000 2,800 1,800 800 

Chillers 3,300 3,300 1,300 700 

Dehumidifiers <50 <50 <50 0 

Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps 300 300 200 100 

Other Mobile AC (Bus & Train AC) 200 100 <50 0 

Total AC 44,500 41,700 25,900 11,300 

Cold Storage 1,100 1,100 800 600 

Retail Food 14,300 10,900 4,900 1,100 

Refrigerated Transport <50 0 0 0 

Industrial Process Refrigeration 8,800 8,900 7,200 5,400 

Total Refrigeration 24,200 20,800 12,800 7,000 

Total 68,700 62,500 38,800 18,200 

 Note: Totals do not sum due to independent rounding.
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Appendix C: Additional “Recovery Rate” Scenarios 

This report closely examines two scenarios of the potential amounts of used and recovered refrigerant 

available to service equipment—Scenarios 20 and 50, which assume that 20 and 50 percent, 

respectively, of refrigerant from retired or retrofitted equipment is recovered and reused in equipment 

while the remainder is not available for reuse. Appendix C includes three additional scenarios, 

representing the lower and higher recovery rates of 10 and 15 and 75 percent, respectively. 

Tables C-1 through C-3 summarize the lower (Scenarios 10 and 15) and higher (Scenario 75) scenarios 

in comparison to the U.S. HCFC consumption cap and the actual U.S. HCFC consumption allocations for 

HCFC-22 in 2010. As shown in Tables C-1 and C-2, the projection of recovered supply under a 10% and 

15% recovery rate scenario is insufficient to meet demand in 2015 and 2020 leading to shortfalls. 

Table C-1: Scenario 10: 10% Recovery Rate: 

Summary of Projected R-22 Supply, Demand, and Surplus (R-22 Metric Tons)

 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 

Projected R-22 Servicing Demand Summarya

Total R-22 servicing demand 62,500 57,900 53,200 48,400 43,600 38,800 18,200 

Modeled R-22 supplied from recovery/reuse 3,000 4,100 4,200 4,200 4,300 4,400 4,200 

% of total R-22 servicing demand supplied by 

anticipated recovery/reuse 5% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 23% 

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 59,500 53,800 49,000 44,200 39,300 34,400 14,100 

Comparison to HCFC Consumption Cap 

Virgin R-22 supply available under capb 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 27,709 0d

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 59,500 53,800 49,000 44,200 39,300 34,400 14,100 

Additional virgin R-22 allowable under capc 9,773 15,473 20,273 25,073 29,973 -6,691 -14,100 

a Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a.

b Expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 for HCFC-22). 

c Negative values represent a shortfall of R-22 available under the consumption cap and are in bold. 

d In 2020, a cap equal to 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

Table C-2: Scenario 15: 15% Recovery Rate: 

Summary of Projected R-22 Supply, Demand, and Surplus (R-22 Metric Tons)

 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 

Projected R-22 Servicing Demand Summarya 

Total R-22 servicing demand 62,500 57,900 53,200 48,400 43,600 38,800 18,200 

Modeled R-22 supplied from recovery/reuse 4,400 6,100 6,200 6,300 6,500 6,600 6,200 

% of total R-22 servicing demand supplied by 

anticipated recovery/reuse 7% 11% 12% 13% 15% 17% 34% 

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 58,100 51,700 47,000 42,100 37,100 32,200 12,000 

Comparison to HCFC Consumption Cap 

Virgin R-22 supply available under capb 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 27,709 0d

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 58,100 51,700 47,000 42,100 37,100 32,200 12,000 

Additional virgin R-22 allowable under capc 11,173 17,573 22,273 27,173 32,173 -4,491 -12,000 

a Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a.

b Expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 for HCFC-22). 

c Negative values represent a shortfall of R-22 available under the consumption cap and are in bold. 

d In 2020, a cap equal to 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

December 2009 Page 39
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As shown in Table C-3, the projection of recovered supply under a 75% recovery rate scenario illustrates 

that industry should have adequate supply if 75 percent of refrigerant from retired or converted equipment 

is recovered and re-enters the pool of refrigerant available to meet demand. 

Table C-3: Scenario 75: 75% Recovery Rate: Summary of Projected R-22 Supply, Demand, and 

Surplus (R-22 Metric Tons) 

 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 

Projected R-22 Servicing Demand Summarya

Total R-22 servicing demand 62,500 57,900 53,200 48,400 43,600 38,800 18,200 

Modeled R-22 supplied from recovery/reuse 22,200 30,700 31,200 31,700 32,400 33,000 31,200 

% of total R-22 servicing demand supplied by 

anticipated recovery/reuse 36% 53% 59% 65% 74% 85% >100% 

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 40,300 27,200 22,000 16,700 11,200 5,800 0 

Comparison to HCFC Consumption Cap 

Virgin R-22 supply available under capb 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 69,273 27,709 0 c

Modeled R-22 supplied from virgin R-22 40,300 27,200 22,000 16,700 11,200 5,800 0 

Additional virgin R-22 allowable under cap 28,973 42,073 47,273 52,573 58,073 21,909 0 

a Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a.

b Expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 for HCFC-22). 

c In 2020, a cap equal to 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

Figures C-1 through C-3 illustrate the information provided in Tables C-1 through and C-3. 

Figure C-1: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand, Recovery Scenario 10a, b

a Potential consumption cap allocations expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 

for HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

 

December 2009 Page 40
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Figure C-2: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand, Recovery Scenario 15a, b

a Potential consumption cap allocations expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 

for HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

Figure C-3: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand, Recovery Scenario 75a, b

a Potential consumption cap allocations expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 

for HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22. 

December 2009 Page 41
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December 2009 Page 42

Table C-4 provides a summary of all five scenarios presented in this report to illustrate how recovered 

and virgin projected servicing supplies range with respect to meeting demand based on the different rates 

of recovery analyzed. 

Table C-4: Comparison of HCFC-22 Servicing Demand Projections (Metric Tons) and Necessary 

Supply Projections by Source (Metric Tons and Percent), 2010, 2015, 2020 

Year Capa Demand 

Necessary Supply 

Recovery Rate 

Scenarios Recovered Virgin Shortfall 

2010 69,273 62,500 

Scenario 10 3,000 (5%) 59,500 (95%) 0 (0%) 

Scenario 15 4,400 (7%) 58,100 (93%) 0 (0%) 

Scenario 20 5,900 (9% 56,600 (91%) 0 (0%) 

Scenario 50 14,800 (24%) 47,700 (76%) 0 (0%) 

Scenario 75 22,300 (36%) 40,200 (64%) 0 (0%) 

2015 27,709 38,800 

Scenario 10 4,400 (11%) 34,400 (89%) 6,690 (17%) 

Scenario 15 6,600 (17%) 32,200 (83%) 4,490 (12%) 

Scenario 20 8,800 (23%) 30,000 (77%) 2,290 (6%) 

Scenario 50 22,000 (57%) 16,800 (43%) 0 (0%) 

Scenario 75 33,000 (85%) 5,700 (15%) 0 (0%) 

2020 0 18,200 

Scenario 10 4,200 (23%) 14,100 (77%) 14,100 (77%) 

Scenario 15 6,200 (34%) 12,000 (66%) 12,000 (66%) 

Scenario 20 8,300 (46%) 9,900 (54%) 9,900 (54%) 

Scenario 50 18,200 (100%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 

Scenario 75 31,200 (>100%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) a HCFC consumption cap expressed in R-22 metric tons to represent an allocation of 100 percent of the cap assigned to 

R-22. In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption baseline remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents 

any allocation of the remaining baseline to R-22.

Source: Based on modeling assumptions using EPA, 2007a. 
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Projected Servicing Needs in the U.S. Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Sector 

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