National Center for Statistics and Analysis 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590

U.S. Department

Of Transportation

National Highway

Traffic Safety

Administration

 DOT-HS-809-691 Research Note November 2003

Passenger Vehicle Crash Involvement Rates 

By Vehicle Model Year

Keith N. Poindexter* 

Introduction

An estimated 11 million passenger vehicles were 

involved in police reported motor vehicle

crashes in 2000 and in 2001. This total reflects a 

crash involvement rate of over twenty passenger 

vehicles per minute for the years covered in this 

study. It also indicates that approximately five 

percent or one in every twenty passenger

vehicles registered in the U.S. was involved in a 

reported motor vehicle crash in each of these

years. These statistics come from the National 

Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s

Fatality Analysis Reporting Systems (FARS),

which contains data on traffic crashes that

involve a fatality and from the National

Automotive Sampling System General Estimates 

System (NASS-GES), which is a database

containing a sample of police reported motor 

vehicle crashes that result in property damage or 

injury from which estimates are calculated. The 

estimates reported are subject to sampling error 

since they are not based on a census of all 

crashes. Vehicle registration data are compiled 

by R. L. Polk & Company in the National

Vehicle Population Profile (NVPP). 

Passenger vehicles include passenger cars,

pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles and vans that 

have a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 

less than 10,000 lbs. These vehicles types are 

frequently used for both personal transportation 

and utilitarian purposes such as commercial,

agricultural and recreational use.

Every year, new vehicle models are introduced 

to the marketplace. This note reports the rate at 

which these passenger vehicles are involved in 

traffic crashes of different severity and the

involvement rates per registered vehicle by the 

model year of the vehicle . Vehicles involved in 

crashes are classified into three types based on 

the most severe injuries sustained in the crash: 

fatal crashes, injury crashes, and property

damage only (PDO) crashes. Overallinvolvement rates reflect all three types of

crashes.

Methodology

The NVPP database reflects the number of

registered vehicles on the road as of July 1st. For 

each calendar year studied, the latest model

years do not include new cars sold during the 

last six months of that year. In an effort to

estimate a full year’s vehicle registration data, 

the number of new cars registered after July 1st

are added to those vehicles that are already on 

the road. R. L. Polk provides new car

registration data in the New Car and Light Truck 

(NCRLT) database. This adjustment better 

reflects the actual vehicle population for these 

particular model years. The low involvement 

rates for the last two model years are the result 

of the limited exposure of these recently

purchased vehicles, some of which may not have 

been on the road at all.

*Keith N. Poindexter is a Program Analyst

employed by Rainbow Technology Inc., a contractor 

working for the Mathematical Analysis Division,

National Center for Statistics and Analysis, National 

Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
 National Center for Statistics and Analysis 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590

Table 1. Passenger Vehicles Involved in Crashes and Involvement Rates

Per Registered Vehicle by Model Year and Crash Severity

2000

Number of Vehicles Involved in

Vehicle 

Model 

Year

Registered

Vehicles Fatal Crashes

Injury 

Crashes

PDO 

Crashes All Crashes

Involvement 

Rate per 

100,000 

Registered 

Vehicles

< 1985 24,259,018 4,548 314,000 669,000 988,000 4,073

1985 6,193,836 1,278 86,000 119,000 206,000 3,326

1986 7,881,350 1,710 108,000 182,000 292,000 3,705

1987 8,650,952 1,916 128,000 218,000 348,000 4,023

1988 9,972,386 2,355 163,000 289,000 454,000 4,553

1989 10,661,016 2,756 188,000 323,000 514,000 4,821

1990 10,007,546 2,478 185,000 335,000 522,000 5,216

1991 10,263,717 2,738 190,000 364,000 557,000 5,427

1992 10,310,271 2,809 199,000 385,000 587,000 5,693

1993 11,662,463 3,019 242,000 453,000 698,000 5,985

1994 12,447,116 3,214 241,000 488,000 732,000 5,881

1995 13,974,517 3,597 289,000 545,000 838,000 5,997

1996 12,310,999 3,070 239,000 490,000 732,000 5,946

1997 13,763,972 3,356 263,000 552,000 818,000 5,943

1998 13,835,724 3,054 252,000 524,000 779,000 5,630

1999* 15,345,142 3,324 277,000 622,000 902,000 5,878

2000* 17,358,277 2,830 217,000 484,000 714,000 4,113

2001* 8,628,672 248 15,000 46,000 61,000 707

Total 217,526,974 48,300 3,605,000 7,088,000 10,742,000 4,938

Sources: Vehicles involved – FARS 2000, NASS-GES 2000, Registered Vehicles – R. L. Polk & Company

* Registered vehicles total adjusted to include new car registrations for the full year.

Note: Injury and PDO crash data are estimates and are rounded to the nearest thousand.
 National Center for Statistics and Analysis 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, D.C. 20590

Table 2. Passenger Vehicles Involved in Crashes and Involvement Rates

Per Registered Vehicle by Model Year and Crash Severity

2001

Number of Vehicles Involved in Vehicle 

Model 

Year

Registered

Vehicles Fatal Crashes

Injury 

Crashes

PDO 

Crashes All Crashes

Involvement 

Rate per 

100,000 

Registered 

Vehicles

< 1986 25,924,569 4,516 307,000 683,000 995,000 3,838

1986 6,821,463 1,318 80,000 145,000 226,000 3,313

1987 7,622,808 1,558 113,000 176,000 291,000 3,817

1988 9,004,581 2,059 129,000 232,000 363,000 4,031

1989 9,777,521 2,404 153,000 267,000 422,000 4,316

1990 9,442,401 2,418 158,000 286,000 446,000 4,723

1991 9,796,820 2,460 174,000 325,000 501,000 5,114

1992 9,966,803 2,595 172,000 350,000 525,000 5,267

1993 11,270,242 2,954 211,000 423,000 637,000 5,652

1994 12,157,597 3,110 226,000 439,000 668,000 5,495

1995 13,647,228 3,477 269,000 527,000 799,000 5,855

1996 12,090,317 3,019 236,000 462,000 701,000 5,798

1997 13,548,994 3,352 258,000 548,000 809,000 5,971

1998 13,562,367 3,133 243,000 508,000 754,000 5,560

1999 14,971,562 3,348 261,000 596,000 860,000 5,744

2000* 16,288,411 3,460 289,000 639,000 931,000 5,716

2001* 16,571,201 2,721 201,000 437,000 641,000 3,868

2002* 8,879,778 249 16,000 36,000 52,000 586

Total 221,344,663 48,151 3,496,000 7,079,000 10,621,000 4,798

Sources: Vehicles involved – FARS 2001, NASS-GES 2001, Registered Vehicles – R. L. Polk & Company

* Registered vehicles total adjusted to include new car registrations for the full year.

Note: Injury and PDO crash data are estimates and are rounded to the nearest thousand.
 

Findings

Analysis of involvement rates for calendar years 

2000 (Table 1) and 2001 (Table 2) reveals that 

while the number of registered passenger 

vehicles increased, the number of passenger

vehicles involved in crashes decreased, therefore 

overall involvement rates for passenger vehicles 

decreased. 

Involvement rates, in general, decline with

vehicle age. Rates appear to peak when the

vehic les are 4 to 8 years old and are more likely 

to be involved in traffic crashes than others.

Vehicles older than that, show a steady decline 

in involvement. One possible explanation for 

this downward trend is the reduction in vehicle 

miles of travel as the vehicle gets older.

• Overall, the number of registered passenger 

vehicles increased by 1.8% from 2000 to 

2001.

• Overall, the number of passenger vehicles 

involved in crashes decreased by 1.1% from 

2000 to 2001.

• Overall, the involvement rates for passenger 

vehicles decreased by 2.8%.

• The fatal crashes involvement rates 

decreased by 2% from 2000 to 2001.

• The injury crashes involvement rates 

decreased by 4.5% from 2000 to 2001

• The property damage only crashes 

involvement rates decreased by 1.8% from 

2000 to 2001.

For additional copies of this research note, please call 1-800-934-8517 or fax your request to (202) 366-3189. For 

questions regarding the data reported in this research, contact Keith N. Poindexter, 202-366-0018. This research 

note and other general information on highway traffic safety may be accessed by internet users at: http://wwwnrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/departments/nrd-30/ncsa/AvailInf.html

U.S. Department

of Transportation

National Highway

Traffic Safety

Administration

400 Seventh Street, S.W., NPO-120

Washington, D.C. 20590