October 29, 2013

MEMORANDUM

SUBJECT: Projected New Minor Sources in Indian Country

FROM: Lillian Grace Bradley, Environmental Economist

Air Economic Group, (C439-02) Health and Environmental Impacts Division

TO: Christopher Stoneman, Policy Advisor Outreach and Information Division, (C304-01)

This memorandum presents projected new minor source s in Indian Country for the years 2011 through 2016 for the following selected source categories:

• Gas dispensing facilities

• Auto body repair and miscellaneous surface coating operations

• Petroleum dry cleaners

• Stone quarrying, crushing and screening facilities

• Hot mix asphalt plants

The projection of future new minor sources and the methodology associated with the projections are documented in Chapter 2 of the “Economic Impact Ana lysis for the Review of New Sources and Modifications in Indian Country Final Report” and c an be found at http://www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/eia.html . The underlying data presented in the report on wh ich the projections were based remain the most current data and projections available. These projections inclu de true minor sources only and do not include major so urces or synthetic minor sources.

In summary, based on the estimated number of existi ng minor sources in Indian Country in 2009, census population data, tribal emission inventory data, an d Census Business Statistics along with EPA Regiona l input, the number of estimated new minor sources in the above source categories were projected for the years 2011 through 2016. The EPA conducted the ana lysis for the projections at the EPA Region level and grouped the Regions based on similar source typ es. The EPA Region 3 contains no federally recognized Tribes, so it is omitted from the analys is.

The EPA Regional groupings are as follows: Regions 1, 2, and 4; Regions 5, 7, and 10; and Regions 6, 8, and 9.

Because the original analysis was conducted for the continental United States only, excluding Hawaii and Alaska, the EPA Regions in the analysis include the following states:

Region 1: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Ha mpshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont Region 2: New Jersey and New York Region 4: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Miss issippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and

TennesseeRegion 5: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, O hio, and Wisconsin

Region 6: Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma , and Texas Region 7: Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska Region 8: Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Da kota, Utah, and Wyoming Region 9: Arizona, California, and Nevada Region 10: Idaho, Oregon, and Washington

Presented below are the estimated numbers of new mi nor sources in the identified source categories, based on the associated NAICS codes by EPA Regional groupings for the years of 2011 – 2016.

Table 1. Projected New Minor Sources in Indian Coun try, First 6 Years (2011-2016)

EPA Region Groups
Industry Category NAICS 1,2,4 5,7,10 6,8,9 Total
Auto Body Repair and Refinishing
Shops 811121

4 7 79 90 811211

332812
Gasoline Dispensing Facilities 4471

3 15 77 95 44711

447110

44719

447190
Petroleum-Based Dry Cleaners 8123

0 1 13 14 81232

812320

812310
Stone Quarrying, Crushing and
Screening Facilities 212311

212312

0 0 7 7 212313

212319

212321
Hot Mix Asphalt Facilities 32412 0 0 5 5 324121

Totals: 7 23 181 211

The totals by Regional groupings represent the comb ined number of projected new minor sources for all the NAICS codes identified in that industry categor y.

If you have any questions, please feel free to cont act me at bradley.lillian@epa.gov or 919-541-5694.