CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE

U.S. Congress

Washington, DC 20515

www.cbo.gov

May 24, 2006

Honorable Jeff Sessions

Chairman

Subcommittee on Administrative

 Oversight and the Courts

Committee on the Judiciary

United States Senate

Washington, DC 20510

Dear Mr. Chairman:

At the request of your staff, the Congressional Budget Office is providing

additional detail on some of the components of its cost estimate for S. 2611,

the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006, as introduced on

April 7, 2006. That estimate was transmitted on May 16, 2006, and does not

reflect the impact of any subsequent amendments to the bill.

The attached tables detail CBO’s estimates of the number of individuals

affected in various ways by the bill:

• Table 1 presents CBO’s estimates of the number of individuals directly

affected by several major provisions of the legislation—the guestworker program, the increased limits on family-sponsored and

employment-based admissions, the legalization of undocumented

immigrants, and the blue-card program. The table presents those

estimates in two categories. The first category consists of people who

are either already in the country or would be expected to enter the

country, legally or illegally, under current law; the second category

consists of those individuals CBO estimates would enter the country

legally as a result of the bill.

• Table 2 displays CBO’s projections of the pattern of illegal

immigration under current law and under S. 2611.
Honorable Jeff Sessions

Page 2

I hope this information is helpful to you. If you would like further details on

CBO’s estimate, we would be pleased to provide them. The CBO staff contact

is Paul Cullinan.

Sincerely,

Donald B. Marron

Acting Director

Enclosures

cc. Honorable Charles E. Schumer

Ranking Democrat

Honorable Arlen Specter

Chairman

Committee on the Judiciary

Honorable Patrick J. Leahy

Ranking Democratic Member
 OF S. 2611 (AS INTRODUCED ON APRIL 7, 2006)

Fiscal Year Averages, in Millions

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL INDIVIDUALS AFFECTED

Guest-worker program 0 0.3 1.0 1.7 2.6 3.4 4.2 5.0 5.9 6.7

Family-sponsored admissions 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.7

Employment-based admissions 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.5 3.1 3.9

Legalization of undocumented immigrants 2.1 4.8 5.4 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3

Blue-card program 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____

Total 2.6 7.0 9.4 10.7 11.9 13.1 14.3 15.3 17.0 18.8

INDIVIDUALS ADJUSTING IMMIGRATION STATUS

Guest-worker program 1/ 0 * 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.5

Family-sponsored admissions 2/ * 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7

Employment-based admissions 2/ 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.6 3.2

Legalization of undocumented immigrants 3/ 2.0 4.5 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9

Blue-card program 3/ 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____

Subtotal 2.3 5.8 7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.9 9.2 10.0 11.0

NEW ENTRANTS

Guest-worker program 0 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.3

Family-sponsored admissions 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

Employment-based admissions * 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7

Legalization of undocumented immigrants 4/ 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Blue-card program 4/ * 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____

Subtotal 0.3 1.2 2.2 3.1 4.0 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.9 7.8

Notes:

The figures for all provisions include dependents.

The figures for individuals newly entering the United States include children born to new entrants after their arrival.

Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

* = Fewer than 50,000.

TABLE 1. PROJECTED CUMULATIVE NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS AFFECTED BY THE MAJOR PROVISIONS

The figures above are based on the bill as introduced and thus do not account for any amendments, such as the reduction in the number of 

guest workers, that the Senate has subsequently adopted.

Individuals who are or will be in the United States 

under current law and would change their 

immigration status

Individuals who would newly enter the United States 

under S. 2611 (Table 2 from CBO's cost estimate)

Total individuals affected by the major provisions of 

S. 2611
Footnotes to Table 1:

1.

2.

3.

4.

 THE UNITED STATES ANNUALLY

By Fiscal Year, in Millions

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Annual entrants under current law 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4

Annual entrants under S. 2611 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____ _____

Difference 0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6

TABLE 2. PROJECTED IMPACT OF S. 2611 ON THE NUMBER OF UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS ENTERING

CBO anticipates that these individuals would enter the United States illegally under current law. Under S. 2611, they would enter instead as guest 

workers or their dependents.

Under current law, these individuals are in the United States already or would enter the country in the future using some type of non-immigrant 

visa. The bill would allow them to become legal permanent residents sooner than they would otherwise.

Information from the Pew Hispanic Center indicates that about 11 million undocumented immigrants were in the United States in March 2005. 

CBO anticipates that one million of them would not be affected by S. 2611 because they will eventually become legal permanent residents under 

current law. We also estimate that about one million undocumented immigrants would not be eligible to obtain legal immigration status under the 

bill because they have been in the United States for less than two years. We also anticipate that about one million of the undocumented 

immigrants would obtain legal status under the bill through the blue-card program. Of the remaining undocumented immigrants, CBO estimates 

that about two-thirds of those who have been in the country for more than five years would obtain legal status and half of those who have been 

here for between two and five years would gain legal status under S. 2611. The number of individuals with legal status would decline in later 

years due to deaths, emigration, and the loss of legal status for individuals who do not complete the process of becoming legal permanent 

residents.

These individuals would be dependents of undocumented immigrants that are already in the United States.