The Authors 

Ralph J. Alig is a Research Forester, Pacific Northwest Forest 

and Range Experiment Station, Cotvallis, OR. William G. Hohenstein, formerly a Forester, is an Analyst with the RADIAN Corporation. Both were with the Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, 

Research Triangle Park, NC, when this research was conducted. 

Brian C. Murray and Robert G. Halght are Research Foresters 

with the Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Research Triangle 

Park, NC. 

October 1990 

Southeastern Forest Experiment Station 

P.O. Box 2660 

Asheville, North Carolina 26602 
Contents 

Page 

Introduction ............................................... 1 

Historical Trends in Timberland Area ............................. 1 

Methods for Projecting Timberland Area in the RPA 1989 Assessment = = = * 3 

Public Timberland .......................................... 6 

Private Timberland ......................................... 6 

Regional Models .............................. .. ........... 6 

Area Projections for Timberland ................................ 12 

Ownership and Total Timberland Area Projections ................... 14 

Projected Area Changes for Forest Types. by Region ................ 1 6 

Alternative Projections ...................................... 19 

No . 1 : Economic Opportunities on Private Timberland ................ 19 

No . 2: Reversion of Cropland and Pastureland to Natural Cover Types .... 21 

Otherscenarios .......................................... 22 

Summary and Conclusions .................................. '23 

Acknowledgments .......................................... 24 

Literature Cited ............................................ 25 

Appendix. .............................................. #26 

Changes in Area of Timberland in the United States, 

1952-2040, By Ownership, Forest Type, Region, and 

State 

Ralph J. Alig, William G. Hohenstein, Brian C. Murray, 

and Robert G. Haight 

ABSTRACT 

Projection systems were significantly improved for estimating 

timberland area in the United States through 2040 by region, State, 

ownership, and forest type. The model for projecting forest area 

and ownership considers competing land uses. The model for 

projecting changes in covertypes considers successional influences 

and behavior of various types of owners. Timberland area in the 

United States is projected to decline by 21 million acres or 4 percent 

by the year 2040. The South is the region with the most dynamic 

changes, including a notable increase in planted pine area. 

Nonindustrial private owners will make the most changes in land 

use, causing a net loss of over 18 million acres of timberland by 

2040. 

Keywords: Land use change, RPA Assessment, land allocation. 

Introduction 

The area of timberland is a major determinant of the 

Nation's ability to produce forest-related goods and 

services. Forests provide timber, recreation, watershed 

protection, wildlife habitat, and other benefits, but 

forest land may also be used for producing crops, 

pasture, or urban development. The effects of 

demographic and economic forces on land allocation 

must therefore be considered when projecting 

changes in forest area. 

This report presents estimates of historical and current 

timberland area, and projections of timberland area, 

by region (fig. I), State, ownership, and forest type 

in the United States. This information and that " 

contained in related documents (USDA Forest Service 

1989a, in press) will be useful for large-scale natural 

resource assessments. 

Timberland is defined as forest land that can produce 

20 cubic feet of timber per acre per year and is not 

reserved for other uses.1 This measure is compatible 

with historical records. In 1987, the United States 

contained 483 million acres (195 million hectares) of 

timberland. 

Estimates of historical and current timberland area 

were obtained from the Resources Planning Act 

(RPA) data base maintained by the USDA Forest 

Service (Waddell and others 1989). The timberland 

area projections were developed for the 1989 RPA 

Assessment. The Assessment must include 'an 

analysis; of the present and anticipated uses, demand 

for, and supply of the renewable resources of forest, 

range, and other associated lands, with consideration 

of the international resource situation, and an 

emphasis of pertinent supply, demand, and price 

relationship trends" (USDA Forest Service 1989a). 

Projections were developed with statistical-based 

methods and expert opinion. Specific methodologies 

that were used are described in subsequent sections. 

Historical Trends in Timberland 

Area 

From 1952 to 1987, the area of timberland in the 

United States dropped from 509 million acres to 483 

million acres, a 5-percent reduction (fig. 2). The 

reduction in timberland area in this century has not 

been steady. Several trend reversals have been 

caused by broad economic and institutional forces. 

Our look backward to define trends begins in 1952 

because that is the first year for which accurate 

estimates of timberland area are available for all 

States. General trends in timberland area can be 

inferred,, however, from earlier records and patterns 

of development (USDA Forest Service 1982, 1989a; 

Waddell and others 1989). 

'In determining what areas are suitable for timber production, 

National Forest planners use additional economic and social 

constraints. Timberland, as defined in this document, does not 

include these constraints. 
Million acres 

600 

Figure P-Timberland area in the United States, by region, 1952-1987. 
From the initial settlement until the early twentieth 

century, the amount of timberland in this country 

declined. Timberland was cleared primarily for crop 

production and pasture in the South, the Northeast, 

and the Appalachians. In colonial times, timberland 

was often seen as a hindrance to development rather 

than as an asset. In certain areas, bare land commanded a higher price than land with timber. As the US. 

population shifted westward, the primary area of 

agricultural production shifted from the East to the 

Midwest. Deep soils, gentle slopes, ease of conversion, and larger tract sizes made this area more 

suitable for crop production than much of the East. 

Declines in the amount of timberland occurred until 

the early 1920's (USDA Forest Service 1988). Significant changes in agriculture took place after 1920 

that caused abandonment of large areas of crop 

and pasture land. These include: (1) the internal 

combustion engine speeded transportation of perishable crops and severely curtailed use of horses, and 

(2) the boll weevil made cotton growing unprof'rtable 

in many parts of the South. Many eastern and southern 

farms were abandoned. 

Some of this abandoned land was planted with trees, 

but the majority reverted naturally to forest. This 

reversion took substantially longer than it would 

have if trees had been planted. Nevertheless, 

timberland acreage increased. 

By the late 1950's and early 1960's these factors 

diminished, and timberland area again began to 

decline. Shifts in timberland in the 1960's occurred 

primarily in the South and Rocky Mountains. Timberland area reductions in the West largely reflected 

public lands being reserved and placed in wilderness 

use. Reduced timberland area in the South was 

caused primarily by the clearing of forest for soybean 

and other crop production. Much of this timberland 

reduction occurred in the bottomland hardwood 

forest areas of the Mississippi Delta. Reductions in 

all regions were further fueled by growth in urban 

areas, highways and powerlines, and related 

development. 

Throughout the 1 970ts, timberland was cleared for 

agricultural use for an expanding export market. 

While technological improvements were promoting 

substitution of other factors in place of land for crop 

production, the large increases in agricultural export 

markets were still resulting in net gains in crop area. 

Data from recent surveys indicate that total timberland 

area in the United States has been declining in the 

past decade (Waddell and others 1989), but modest 

gains have been reported in a few States. 

Several major factors affect change in timberland 

area. Losses are caused by continued increases in 

population and per capita income and the reservation 

of Federal and State timberland for wilderness or 

similar use. Gains are caused by excess agricultural 

capacS&y and conservation policies that encourage 

tree planting. Such factors will be examined in the 

next two sections of this report. 

Relatively small net changes in timberland area often 

mask relatively large losses (diversions) and gains 

(reversions) that offset each other. Historical data on 

diversions and reversions are too limited to support 

projections of these processes of landscape changes, 

Site quality, a measure of the inherent capacity of 

land to grow trees, can be one of the important 

determinants of changes in the composition of the 

forest resource. However, analysis of data first 

assembled around the mid-1960's for the South-the 

most dynamic of the Nation's major timber-growing 

regions-indicates no major net changes in the 

regional distribution of timberland by site class. For 

example, the last two surveys in the Southeast indicate 

there has been a very minor increase in overall site 

qualii (Alig and others 1986). 

Methods for Projecting Timberland 

Area in the 1989 RPA Assessment 

Until recently, projections of timberland area were 

based on extrapolations of past trends and expert 

opinion,, Parks and Alig (1988) survey land-based 

models for forest resource supply analysis and 

describe their evolution over time in aggregate natural 

resource assessments. Wall's (1981) expert opinion 

approach for the 1980 RPA Assessment was also 

used in earlier assessments. Wall estimated future 

timberland by subtracting acreage perceived to have 

higher nonforest value from the potential forest base. 

Area projections were developed based on the 

opinions of regional experts. 
Alig (1985) developed a system of econometric 

equations to project future land uses, based on the 

theory of competitive land rents. Land rent represents 

a residual economic surplus, which is the net total 

economic returns from a land use after the factor 

costs of production are deducted. Alig (1986) 

hypothesizes that the percentage of the land base in 

a given land use is a function of the ratio of the land 

rent for that use relative to the average land rent for 

all land uses. 

Alig's projection system drives the Southern Area 

Model (SAM), which was used to project changes in 

timberland area for the South's Fourth Forest study 

(Alig and others 1988; USDA Forest Service 1988). 

Constraints were imposed on the models to preclude 

double counting across land uses, which was possible 

with earlier expert opinion projection approaches. 

Land-area models with the SAM structure (fig. 3) 

were developed for the other major timber-growing 

regions of the United States. With these models, 

State-level projections of timberland area were made 

for the 1989 RPA Assessment (Alig 1989). Methods 

and assumptions used in the development of these 

projections are described below. 

For the projections of timberland area, four major 

land uses were recognized: timberland, cropland, 

pasture-range, and urban and other developed land. 

Expected demands for all competing land uses were 

examined in the context of the economic hierarchy 

of land use (i.e., land is generally assumed to be 

employed in most profitable use). In projecting land 

use areas, the entire land base in each State was 

accounted for to ensure a complete estimate. Within 

the timberland class, three ownerships were considered: public, forest industry, and farmer and other 

private.* 

Total land area in each State was projected through 

time. The land base of most States is projected to 

decline by approximately 0.05 percent per decade, 

due mainly to water impoundments, flooding, and 

erosion. The summed area of State-level projections 

of each land use were reconciled to the acreage of 

the total State land base, as estimated by the US. 

Geological Survey. 

21n the Southern Study (USDA Forest Service 1988), data availability 

allowed this 'farmer and other private group' to be separated into 

three groups: farmer, corporate, and other individuals. 

Because management intensity may vary by type of 

owner, changes in forest types were projected 

separately for each owner class. In the second phase 

of timberland area projections, area changes for 

major forest types on the forest ownerships are 

projected, Failure to account for forest type change 

over time can lead to miscalculation of resource 

production and errors in policy design. Timberland 

value and productivity depend in part on the species 

of trees that are on site. Because physiographic 

differences exist between regions, forest types often 

differ as well. The proportion of timberland in each 

forest type on a particular ownership in 1987 was 

used as a starting point for the timberland area 

projections (Waddell and others 1989). Information 

on how species composition changes over time in 

response to natural succession, management practices, and other disturbances was incorporated into 

the forest type projections (Alig 1985). 

The intensity of forest management over time and 

the rate of natural succession largely determine the 

forest type. Alig (1985) and Alig and Wyant (1985) 

describe a transition probability model, based on 

Markovian transition assumptions, for forest type 

area change on private ownerships in the Southeast. 

The transition model projects the acres of forest 

types that will result from a mixture of custodial care, 

harvesting, and other miscellaneous forest management activities, and natural succession. The Markovian 

assumption means that the path over time to a current 

state is independent of future transitions among 

possible states of nature for a forest type aggregate. 

For example, if two plots of timberland were classified 

into the same forest type aggregate based on the 

Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data characterization, they would be treated similarly for projection 

purposes, even if their past histories were different. 

Modifications of this technique were used in the 

study of the South's Fourth Forest (USDA Forest 

Service 1988) and in the 1989 RPA Assessment 

(USDA Forest Service, in press). 

Forest type transition matrices were determined 

using a framework of forest type change probabilities. 

The form of each forest change probability is the 

product of two probabilities: 

for all i,j; t=l,. .., n. 
Projection Methods 

For Private Ownerships 

Econometric Methods Expert Opinion Method 

Other Land Use Studies 

Past Trends 

I Initial Timberland Area Projections / 

u Review 

I I 

Forest Type Transition Matricies 

! 1 

I I 

Initial Forest Type Projections 

Forest Type Projections 

Figure 3-Methods used to project area changes for timberland in 

the 1989 R$A Assessment 
The change probability is the probability of a disturbance of type k on ownership i and forest type j, in 

decade t, multiplied by the conditional probability 

that a unit area of timberland on ownership i at decade 

t+l will be in forest type j', given the disturbance. In 

this way, the probability of land in a forest type 

remaining in that forest type, or changing to any 

other given forest type, is expressed. The probabilities 

used in these calculations were typically determined 

from observed frequencies of type changes on 

remeasured Forest Service inventory plots. Probabilities of forest type change over time were summarized 

in matrix form. Projections of future forest type areas, 

by decade, were calculated by multiplying an initial 

vector of forest type areas by the transition probability 

matrix. 

If sufficient data on disturbances did not exist and 

suitable plots had been remeasured at least once, 

the simpler probabilities were computed: 

These probabilities are an average over all disturbance 

regimes (including no disturbance) and ownership 

groups, and were estimated from sample relative 

frequencies. If no time series data existed, the 

projections were based on the opinions of regional 

experts, which in many cases involve extrapolations 

of recent forest area trends. 

Public Timberland 

Projections for this class were based on documented 

land allocation plans and on the opinions of regional 

experts. No attempt was made to model these lands 

by economic parameters because such modeling is 

not well suited for analyzing changes in land area 

that are influenced largely by institutional planning 

and legislative actions. Public timberland area 

projections were reviewed and modified by State, 

Bureau of Land Management, and Forest Service 

experts. 

Private Timberland 

Models to project area of private timberland were 

developed separately for each region based largely 

on the methods developed for the South (Alig 1985). 

Factors influencing land use conversion and the 

sources and quality of data vary greatly across 

regions. Econometric models have fairly extensive 

data requirements, and a full complement of time 

series of data did not exist for all States and 

ownerships. Therefore, certain projections were based 

on expert opinion and analysis of historical trends. A 

listing of the techniques used in each region can be 

found in table 1. Although individual models vary in 

the extent to which they utilize econometric analysis 

in the projection process, all models share similar 

basic design and assumptions (e.g., total area 

constraints for the land base are imposed). 

Successive lo-year projections were made over the 

N-year planning horizon for the RPA Assessment. 

Areas for land uses were projected independently 

and then summed. To reconcile the independent 

projections of area changes for land uses with the 

area for the entire land base, corrections were 

apportioned according to the proportions of all land 

area in the various land uses. Areas of urban and 

national forest land were excluded from this reconciliation process because their area trends in the future 

are less uncertain than for other land uses. 

Documentation for other assumptions can be found 

in "Basic: Assumptions: A Technical Document 

Supporting the 1989 USDA Forest Service RPA 

Assessment* (USDA Forest Service 1989b). 

Regional Models 

This section describes the methods and models, 

including the specifications and assumptions, that 

were applied in each region. The models for the 

southern region will be discussed first because they 

are more detailed than any others and served as 

prototypes for other regional models. Common 

variables across regions include population, personal 

income, incomes from agricultural and forestry land 

enterprises, and government programs influencing 

land use change. 

South. The Southern region includes 13 States: 

Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, 

Florida, Nlabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, 

Louisiana, eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and 

Kentucky. The land area projections for 12 of these 

States were developed for the study of the South's 

Fourth Forest (USDA Forest Service 1988). Kentucky 

was not included in the Southern Study, so expert 

opinion-based projections for it were developed 

separately for the 1989 RPA Assessment. 
Table 1--Methods for projecting timberland area for private land, by region 

Region Technique Reference 

North 

Northeast New York, Pennsylvania, Howard and Lutz (in press) 

and Maine-- 

econometric models 

All other States-- 

expert opinion 

North Central 

South 

Southeast 

South Central 

Rocky Mountains 

Pacific Coast 

Northwest 

Douglas-fir 

Subregion 

Northwest 

Pine 

Subregion 

Southwest 

Lake States-- 

econometric models 

Other States-- 

expert opinion 

Econometric models 

Econometric models 

Expert opinion 

Plantinga and others (1989) 

Alig (1985) 

Alig and others (1988) 

Econometric models Parks (1988~) 

Expert opinion 

Expert opinion 
A series of econometric equations was developed to 

project areas in crops, pasture and range, urban 

and other developed land, farm forest, industrial 

forest, and miscellaneous private forest, Input data 

for these dependent variables were collected by the 

USDA Forest Service's FIA units of the Southeastern 

and Southern Forest Experiment Stations. Time series 

data were pooled across survey units to provide 

adequate sample sizes (Alig 1986). 

Land area projections derive from projecting the 

diverse set of independent variables that influence 

land use changes. Because highly accurate predictions of these variables often were unavailable, 

assumptions were based on historical trends, developments that affect those trends, and the expectations 

regarding future changes. The assumptions used in 

making projections for population, personal income, 

and inflation rates are documented in the RPA 

technical supporting paper 'Basic Assumptions' 

(USDA Forest Service 1989b). 

Specific assumptions about the independent variables 

were made as follows. Projections of income per 

acre for crop, pasture, and range uses were based 

on agricultural price and productivity projections to 

the year 2080 in the Soil Conservation Service's 

analysis, which supports the Resources Conservation 

Act (RCA) appraisal (USDA Soil Conservation Service 

1989). The RCA price projections were based on the 

Center for Agricultural and Rural Development 

(CARD)/RCA modeling system (USDA Soil Conservation Service 1989). Constant real future crop prices 

were projected assuming annual productivity growth 

of 1.1 percent until the year 2000 and 0.9 percent 

thereafter. Livestock incomes were projected assuming constant real prices and the Soil Conservation 

Service projection of 0.9 percent annual increase in 

productivity. 

For forest type projections, separate models of forest 

type transitions were constructed for farm and 

miscellaneous private and industry owner groups. 

The transition probability structure is as outlined in 

the previous section. Projections for the RPA assessment were developed for the study of the South's 

Fourth Forest (USDA Forest Service 1988). Because 

transitions in forest type are important in the South, 

and because there are data on these transitions, 

these southern models are more detailed and more 

extensively tested than any others (table 2). 

North. The North region is comprised of two subregions: the Northeast and North Central, The Northeast 

subregion contains Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont, 

Delaware,, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The approach to projections 

there utilized econometric models (Howard and Lutz, 

in press) for some States and expert opinion projections for other States, 

Econometric equations were developed to project 

timberland area for forest industry, farmer, and other 

private ownership for Maine, Pennsylvania, and New 

York. Timberland area for other States in this subregion 

was projected using expert opinion. The econometric 

models project the amount of total land in these 

forest ownership classes and acreage in cropland, 

pasture and rangeland, and urban and other land 

when using the following independent variables: real 

per capita income, rural population, urban population, 

farm income, the Standard and Poor's 500 stock 

index, and regional pulp capacity (Howard and Lutz, 

in press). Projections of real per capita income were 

taken from the RPA 'Basic Assumptions" (USDA 

Forest Service 1989b). Current rural and urban 

population levels were determined from "Census of 

the Population" (U.S. Department of Commerce 1982) 

data. Future rates of population change were determined from the Basic Assumptions (USDA Forest 

Service 1989b). Current farm income data were 

determined from State-level farm income tables in 

various issues from the U.S. Department of Commerce 

periodic Census of Agriculture. These values were 

held constant over time. An average annual rate of 

the Standard and Poor's stock index from 1945 to 

1984 was extrapolated through the projection period. 

The regional pulp capacity from 1945 to 1984 was 

also extrapolated through the projection period. This 

last variable was used only in the Maine econometric 

model. 

For States in which econometric models were not 

estimated, area projections for cropland, pasture 

and range land, and urban and other land were 

made from unpublished area projections by the 

USDA Economic Research Service and expert opinion. 

Initial timberland area projections were obtained 

from FIA forest resource analysts and other forestry 

experts. Any differences between projected total 

land area and the sum of all projected land areas by 
Table 2--Forest type projection methods 

Region Method Reference 

North 

Northeast 

North Central 

South 

Southeast 

South Central 

Rocky Mountains 

Pacific Coast 

Northwest 

Douglas-fir 

Subregion 

Northwest 

Pine 

Subregion 

Southwest 

Extrapolation/ 

Expert opinion 

Lake States-- 

Transition probability 

analysis 

Other States-- 

Extrapolation/ 

Expert opinion 

Transition 

analysis 

Transition 

analysis 

Parks (1988b) 

probability 

Alig (1985) 

Alig and Myant (1985) 

probability 

Extrapolation/ 

Expert opinion 

Forest Industry-- 

Transition Probability 

analysis. All other 

ownerships-- 

Extrapolation/ 

Expert opinion 

Extrapolation/ 

Expert opinion 

Extrapolation/ 

Expert Opinion 

Alig (1985) 

Alig and Wyant (1985) 
ownership were apportioned among the private forest 

land, cropland, pasture and range land, and urban 

and other developed lands as described earlier for 

the general procedures. Rates of change from an 

earlier timberland area study (Wall 1981) were used 

to develop upper and lower limits for these projections. 

These results were also modified in response to 

Federal, State, industry, and academic review. 

The North Central subregion consists of Michigan, 

Minnesota, Wisconsin, lndiana, Illinois, Kansas, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. 

An econometric model was developed (Plantinga 

and others 1989) to project land uses in the three 

Lake States: Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. 

Timberland in the remaining States was projected 

with an expert opinion approach. 

Econometric equations were developed to project 

private timberland as a function of population and 

county-level income in the Lake States. Timberland 

acreage for the private land ownerships was determined from USDA Forest Service surveys (e.g., 

Spencer and others 1988). Population and county 

income statistics were obtained from various issues 

of the USDC Census. Differentiation of the projection 

equations determined the rates of change. These 

rates of change were then applied to the 1987 

acreages from the RPA data base to project land 

areas over the projection period. 

For forest type projections, a high degree of species 

heterogeneity exists within the Northeast and North 

Central subregions. To account for this, several 

transition matrices for forest types were developed 

for specific physiographic areas. Five areas were 

analyzed in the Northeast: Maine, New York, Pennsylvania, other mid-Atlantic States, and other New 

England States. Two areas in the North Central 

subregion were analyzed: the Lake States and the 

Central States. 

The forest type transition matrices for the Northeast 

were based on expert opinion. Projections of forest 

type areas for the Lake States were based on analysis 

of Wisconsin data (Parks 1988b). Spencer and others 

(1988) examined the available data and associated 

area changes in forest types in Wisconsin between 

1968 and 1983. Including nonstocked land, there are 

13 forest types recorded for 1968 and 15 forest types 

recorded for 1983 in Wisconsin. These types were 

combined into groups for the Lake States: white 

pine, red pine, jack pine, spruce-fir, swamp conifer, 

oak-hickory, elm-ash-cottonwood, maple-beech-birch, 

aspen-birch, and nonstocked. 

Some modifications of empirical rates of forest type 

change were needed in order to apply the Wisconsin 

data matrix to Michigan and Minnesota. Unlike the 

other Lake States, Wisconsin experienced an increase 

in timberland area between 1968 and 1983, which is 

not projected to continue. By modifying the Wisconsin 

matrix, an average matrix for application to the Lake 

States region was computed. The Lake States regional 

matrix is a weighted average (based on State 

timberland area) of the individual States. The 1987 

RPA data base (Waddell and others 1989) provided 

the starting allocations of acres among forest types. 

The proportions of acres were projected with the 

regional 1968-83 model for I $year intervals (1 998, 

2013, 2028, 2043). Proportional allocations of acres 

among forest types, by decade for 1990 to 2040, 

were linearly interpolated and applied to projected 

timberland area. 

The forest type transition matrix for the Central States 

is based on analysis of FIA data from a recent resurvey 

of Indiana. For these States (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, 

Kansas, Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, South 

Dakota, and Ohio), unpublished plot data for forest 

type changes in lndiana from 1967 to 1986 form the 

basis for projections. The 1987 RPA data base 

provided the starting allocations of acres among 

forest types. Proportions of acres among forest types 

were projected for 18-year intervals (2004, 2032, 

2050) by using the regional 1967-86 model. Projections of forest type areas for each decade in the 

projection period, 1990 to 2040, were obtained by 

linear interpolation. 

Pacific Coast. The Pacific Coast region consists of: 

California, Washington, Oregon, Alaska, and Hawaii. 

Econometric models (Parks 19m) and expert 

opinions were utilized in the projection process. 

Separate models were estimated for western Washington, western Oregon, and northern California. Expert 

opinion projections were p r e p a r e d f o r eastern 

Washington, eastern Oregon, southern California, 

and Hawaii; Alaska was considered separately 

because unique land use and ownership patterns 

exist in the State. 
The econometric approach was used to project areas 

of private forest and agricultural land for western 

Washington, western Oregon, and northern California. 

Forestry income per acre, crop income per acre, 

livestock income per acre, population density, and 

urban population percentage are the independent 

variables (Parks 1988~). 

These determinants were projected based on the 

following assumptions. Forestry income projections 

were based on current harvest levels from USDA 

Forest Service data, future harvest levels as projected 

by the Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM) 

(Adarns and Haynes 1980), and stumpage price 

projections from the TAMM model. Crop and livestock 

incomes per acre were developed from the Department of Commerce Census of Agriculture data for 

the market value of crops sold, divided by land acreage 

at the county level. Agricultural income projections 

were based on productivity improvements p e r a c r e 

projected in the Second RCA Appraisal (USDA Soil 

Conservation Service 1989). Projections of population 

density were developed from Bureau of Census 

population projections, adjusted for differences in 

regional growth. Urban population percentage was 

based on Bureau of Census statistics that were linearly 

extrapolated into the future. Current values for the 

dependent variables for agriculture were derived 

from various USDA Economic Research Service 

statistics. 

Initially, the Pacific Northwest Westside model projected total private timberland. Separating private timberland into forest industry and other private was 

accomplished by using the initial breakdown from 

the RPA data base and by applying future breakdowns 

between the ownership types from Wall's (1981) 

earlier projections for each timberland ownership. 

The expert opinion approach was used to obtain 

area change projections for private land in eastern 

Washington, eastern Oregon, southern California, 

Alaska, and Hawaii. The initial or base year 1987 

acreages were obtained from the RPA data base. 

Areas of nonforest land uses were also projected to 

obtain area projections for the entire land base. A 

combination of expert opinion and historical trend 

analysis was relied on to project area changes for 

agriculture and urban and other developed uses.3 

Current crop and pasture and range acreages were 

interpollated from Economic Research Service projections. The Department of Commerce's Census of 

Agriculture data at the county level were used for 

sub-state breakdowns. Current urban and other land 

acreage was determined from unpublished USDA 

Economic Research Service estimates. 

Forest type change varies significantly by subregion 

in the Pacific Northwest. However, since data for 

projection purposes similar to that used in eastern 

regions were not available, a constant proportions 

approach was used for all but the industrial timberland 

in the western part of the Pacific Northwest. 

The transition matrix used for industrial land in the 

western part of the Pacific Northwest is based on 

responses to a survey of industrial forest owners in 

western Oregon, conducted by the USDA Forest 

Service in cooperation with Oregon State University.4 

Preliminary results from the survey and expert opinion 

suggest two major trends, First, lands currently in 

Douglas-fir, hemlock-sitka spruce, fir-spruce, and 

pine will tend to remain in these types. Second, 

forest types that are relatively less economically 

important, including other softwoods, western hardwoods, and all other types, will tend to be converted 

to the more profitable types over time. 

Rocky Mountains. The Rocky Mountains region 

includes Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, 

New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming. Projections for this 

region were based on expert opinions from the 

timberlland area study conducted for the 1980 RPA 

Assessment (Wall 1981). Rates of change in timberland area from this study were applied to the 1987 

timberlland acreages from the RPA data-base figures 

3Hisbrical statistics on land area came from the ERS series, 'Major 

Uses of Land in the United States' (e.g., Frey and Hexem 1984). 

Appendix tables in each contain estimates by State of cropland, 

pasture-range, forest land, special uses, and other uses. Rates of 

change were developed for major use areas and were used in 

developing associated projections, which were modified when 

necessary by checking with individuals knowledgeable about land 

use trends in subject States. Projections were obtained from: USDA 

Economic Research Service. 1987. Projections of Urban Area 

Prepared for USDA Analysis. Four tables with cover letter from 

Klaus Ak to Basic Assumptions Working Group. Washington, DC. 

4p~rsonal communication, Brian Greber, Oregon State University, 

Department of Forest Resources, February 1989. 
to provide an initial guide for the projections. These 

projections were then modified in response to State 

and Forest Service review. 

For forest type projections, analysis of historical data 

indicated relatively slow exchanges among major 

groupings of forest types at a regional scale. Disturbances in forest stands are relatively infrequent in this 

region, compared with other regions. Transition 

matrices were constructed to simply extrapolate 

these recent trends among the relative proportions 

of forest types, while allowing the areas of all forest 

types to be affected by changes in total timberland 

area. 

Forest land in the Rocky Mountains section was 

classified as 'hardwood' and 'softwood' types 

independent of the ownership class. Species-specific 

timber types were aggregated into hardwood and 

softwood types and used to compute the proportion 

of the forest-land area in hardwood and softwood 

types. These proportions were projected to be the 

same in each decade between years 2000 and 2040. 

In each decade, the timber type proportions were 

multiplied by the projected forest-land area to obtain 

estimates of area by hardwood and softwood types. 

Area Projections for Timberland 

Table 3 summarizes the timberland area projections 

by region and ownership. Each region's projections 

are discussed separately after an overview of land 

use projections for the United States. 

Area of U.S. timberland is projected to decrease by 

21 million acres by 2040, or a 4-percent reduction, 

Area in urban and developed uses will increase over 

the next five decades, but at a slowly declining rate. 

The population of the United States is expected to 

increase from 242 million people in 1986 to 333 

million people in 2040, a 38-percent increase (fig, 4). 

In addition, disposable income per capita in constant 

1982 dollars is expected to increase 2.6 times over 

the same period, from $10,947 per capita to $28,790 

in constant 1982 dollars (fig. 4, USDA Forest Service 

19896). In short, more people will have more money 

to save and invest. They will generate increased 

demands for timberland as an asset and for recreational and other nontimber uses (Plantinga and others, 

in press). 

Population in the United States 

1955-1985, with projections to 2040 Pawlatran in Mltllon8 350 7 

Per capita disposable income 

in the United States 1955-1985, 

with projections to 2040 

,lhouaaMa a! Dollars 

Conotant 1982 Dollars 

Figure 4-Population and personal income projections (USDA 

1 989b). 

Competition for land between forestry and crop 

agriculture is difficult to predict. In the late 1970's 

and early 1980's, motivated by increasing export 

demand, farmers cleared land for crop production. 

According to Soil Conservation Service RCA projections, however, this trend will not continue (USDA 

Soil Conservation Service 1989). 

Sharp declines in exports increased excess agricultural capacity to about 45 million acres in the mid-l 980's 

(Moulton and Dicks 1987). The RCA 'intermediate' 

estimate projects the area of cropland to decline 

until 2000, then rise slightly until 2030 (USDA Soil 

Conservation Service 1989). 
Table 3--Ama of timberland in the United States, by ownership class and region, for 1952, 1962. 1970, 1977. 

and 1987. with projections to 2040 

Ownership class 

and region 

Year Projections 

Million acres 

Ownership class 

Public 153 152 150 144 136 13 4 134 13 4 134 134 Forest industry 59 61 6 8 69 71 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 Farmer and other private -297 301 2 8 6 278 276 270 267 2 63 260 258 

Total, all classes 509 515 504 491 483 476 473 469 465 463 

Region 

North 154 157 154 153 15 5 154 154 151 150 

South 205 209 203 198 195 191 190 187 

Rocky Mountains' 

187 

6 7 65 6 0 6 1 6 0 60 60 59 59 

Pacific coast' 8 3 82 79 7 2 7 0 69 69 68 67 

Total, all regions 509 515 504 491 4 8 3 476 473 469 465 463 

Data for 1952 and 1962 are as of December 31; all other years are as of January 1. 

Totals may not sum exactly because of rounding. 

Includes Great Plains. 

Includes Alaska and Hawaii. 
Increases in urban land area reduce timberland 

area, not only through clearing for development but 

also by taking cropland that must be replaced by 

clearing forest. Cropland in the South is projected to 

decline by several million acres, while urban and 

other land uses increase by over 10 million acres. 

Reductions in timberland area will result mainly from 

conversion of land to other uses such as urban and 

related uses, highways, airports, reservoirs, and 

surface mining. Inland water continues to increase, 

although at reduced rates, mainly due to reservoir 

construction. Additional constraints on the management of the remaining timberland can also be 

expected, as more people live in or near wooded 

areas (Alig and Healy 1987). 

The amount of unused cropland that is converted to 

forest depends heavily on government policies, which 

are difficult to predict far into the future. The Food 

Security Act of 1985, which created the Conservation 

Reserve Program (CRP), also embodies the Conservation compliance provisions, the asodbuster,a the 

iiswampbuster,' and other provisions that could 

increase the amount of timberland acreage (Moulton 

and Dicks 1987). Some States, such as Minnesota, 

are adopting their own forms of CRP programs, which 

could affect future acreage of timberland. 

Other factors that will affect the aggregate composition 

of timberland include the transfer of farms to nonfarmer 

ownership, the subdivision of tracts, and increases 

in absentee ownership. These factors need not directly 

affect the area of timberland, although they have 

been shown to affect the intensity of management 

and the ability of these lands to produce certain 

outputs (Alig and Healy 1987). 

Ownership and Total Timberland Area 

Projections 

Timberland area projections by region are described 

in this section. State-level projections are shown in 

appendix tables A1 -A4. 

South. Net declines or constant levels of timberland 

area are projected for all Southern States (app, table 

Al). The declines are linked to increases in economic 

activity and land development. Projected declines in 

timberland area are largest in States where the largest 

increases in urban land are expected (e.g., Florida, 

Georgia, and Alabama). Total timberland area is 

projected to decrease from 195 million acres in 1987 

to 187 million acres in 2040. 

The Conservation Reserve Program continues to 

have a significant impact in the South. Bekveen 2 to 

4 million acres of highly erodible cropland are likely 

to be planted to trees under that program. Other 

marginal cropland acreage may be forced into pasture 

or trees if the conservation provisions of the Food 

Security Act are implemented strictly (Moulton and 

Dicks 1987). Currently, there are 18 million acres of 

crop or pasture land in the South that would yield 

higher returns to the landowners if they were converted 

to pine plantations (USDA Forest Service 1988). 

Also, there are 23 million acres of land in the South 

currently in trees that have high or medium potential 

for conversion to crops (USDA Forest Service 1988). 

Domestic and export markets for crops will strongly 

influence the disposition of this land on the margin 

between uses (Healy 1985). 

To ensure wood supplies for paper mills, forest 

industry has purchased a great deal of land over the 

last 35 years. Land acquisition by forest industry is 

expected to continue but at a much slower rate (Alig 

and others 1986). Forest industry currently owns 38 

million southern acres and is expected to own 39 

million acres by 2040. 

Farmers and miscellaneous private owners are 

expected to experience a net decline of 10 million 

acres, from 137 million in 1987 to 127 million in 2040. 

Some of this land will remain in timber after transfer 

to other owners, but some will be converted to urban 

or cropland uses. 

In the South the public owns approximately 10 percent 

of the timberland. Public acreage is likely to increase 

slightly, by 0.8 million acres or 4 percent, by 2040. 

Most of the increase will be in State or local rather 

than Fedleral land. Not included in the other public 

timberland expansion is some bottomland hardwood 

acreage that is likely to be acquired by State agencies 

and withdrawn from the timberland base to protect 

wetlands;. 

North. Timberland in the North is projected to drop 

by 5 milliion acres by 2040, a 3-percent decline (app. 

table A2). Most of this loss will be from farms and 

miscellaneous private tracts. Acreage in these 

categories is expected to decline from 107 million 

acres in 1987 to 101 million acres in 2040. 

Earlier in this century, changes in timberland area in 

the North were more strongly influenced by demands 

for crop and pasture land. Recent declines in 
timberland in the North, however, have been caused 

primarily by increases in urban and related uses. 

Development of rural land in the North for second 

homes, transportation networks, powerlines, and 

other uses is expected to cause further declines in 

timberland in the region. The future amount of 

timberland converted for highway construction will 

be less than in the past, because the bulk of the 

planned highway system in the North is now in place. 

A reduction in the need for agricultural lands will 

offset the conversion of timberland somewhat. For 

example, the production of dairy products has become 

more efficient, reducing the amount of pastureland 

needed in States such as Wisconsin, Minnesota, 

and New York. Less pastureland is needed in the 

Midwest because of the tendency towards feeding 

cattle in feedlots rather than pasturing them. 

The distribution of forests and rangeland between 

private and public ownership h a s n o t changed 

appreciably in the last quarter of a century, and it is 

projected to change relatively little through 2040. 

Considerable shifting has occurred, however, among 

the major classes of private forest owners-farmers, 

forest industry, and other private owners-who hold 

over 80 percent of the forest land in the North. 

As in other parts of the United States, northern acreage 

in forest industry ownership is projected to remain 

fairly stable. The area held by farmers and other 

private parties is expected to drop about 5 percent 

by 2040. As in other regions, the projected decline 

in nonindustrial private forest area is due largely to 

the continued downward trend in land owned by 

individuals classified as 'farmers.' Although the 

Conservation Reserve Program should stimulate tree 

planting on some highly erodible cropland, the extent 

of expected tree planting is small relative to the existing 

area of farm forest. 

Area of public timberland is projected to increase 

slightly. Growing concern over trends in land use 

may lead to further public purchase of forest land, 

but it is not clear to what degree, if any, such land 

will be managed for timber production (Webster 

1989). For example, the northern forests of Maine, 

New Hampshire, New York, and Vermont are within 

a day's drive of 70 million people. Values for recreation 

and development in many cases may exceed value 

for timber production. 

Pacific Coast. Many projected changes in land uses 

for the Pacific Coast States are continuations of 

recent trends. Timberland area is projected to decline 

from 72 million acres in 1987 to 67 million acres in 

2040 (app table A3), a 7-percent reduction. Most of 

this projected loss in area classified as "timberland 

will result from urban and other development of private 

nonindustrial forest and from reclassification of public 

timberland 

The amount of forest land held by nonindustrial private 

owners is expected to fall by 2 million acres, 11 

percent,, by 2040. Over one-half of that decline is 

projected to occur in California. Timberland from this 

class will in many cases be used for urban and built-up 

uses, and to replace crop and pastureland that is 

developed. 

Historical changes among the major groups of 

owners-forest industry and other private 

ownerships-have been substantial. Outside of 

Alaska, about 5 million acres-around 30 percent of 

the timberland area in farmer and other private 

ownership- has been converted to other uses or 

transferred to other owners since 1952. Most of this 

area reduction occurred on farm ownerships. 

Nonindustrial private forest will in some cases be 

purchased by-forest industry and other corporations. 

Industry corporate ownership is projected to increase, 

especially in the areas dominated by Douglas-fir. 

For forest industry, slight area increases are projected 

to the year 2000, followed by area declines for the 

remainder of the projection period. Overall increases 

in area in the Douglas-fir subregion and reductions 

in less productive subregions are projected. The 

result should be higher average productivity on 

remaining forest industry lands. 

Only 16 million acres of Alaska's total land area of 

362 million acres qualifies as timberland. The total 

timberland base of the State is projected to be 

essentially constant for the next 50 years. Substantial 

changes in land ownership are projected to occur in 

Alaska, however, primarily the transfer of roughly 

500,000 acres from public ownership to Alaskan 

Native ownership. 

Although some land in Alaskan Native ownership 

may be sold to forest industry, industry ownership of 

timberland is projected to remain negligible for the 

foreseeable future. 
Rocky Mountains. A $percent decline in timberland 

area is projected for the Rocky Mountains. Virtually 

all of the loss will be from public and farmer and 

miscellaneous private holdings (app. table 84). 

Timberland area in industry ownership is expected 

to be fairly constant. 

Timberland comprises less than 10 percent of the 

land base in this region. Substantial areas of privately 

owned forest land have been subdivided for homesites, particularly in Montana, Idaho, and Colorado. 

A modest, but steady, further area reduction in private 

timberland is projected because of increases in urban 

and developed land area. 

Declines in crop acreage will be offset partially by 

increases in pasture and range. Pasture and range 

area is projected to increase by several million acres 

as a result of the conversion of erodible cropland 

through the Conservation Reserve Program. 

Reduction in area of public timberland is primarily 

attributable to reclassification of current timberland. 

However, as in the Pacific Coast region, the projected 

amount of reclassification is substantially less than 

that since! 1952, and there is considerable uncertainty 

about the! total. 

Projected Area Changes for Forest Types, 

by Region 

Table 4 and figure 5 present projections of forest 

type area, by region. The following is a discussion of 

results for each region. 

Table $--Projections of forest type areas on timberland, by region, 1987 to 2040 

Region and forest type 

group 

Projections 

1987 2000 2040 

North 

Hardwoods 

Conifers 

Hardwoods-ConifersiOther 

Total 

South 

Hardwoods 

Pine 

Hardwoods-Pine/Other 

Total 

Rocky Mountains 

and Great Plains 

Conifers 

Hardwoodslother 

Total 

Pacific Coast 

Hardwoods 

Douglas-fir 

Other Conifers 

Total 

Million acres 

Note: Totals may not sun exactly because of rounding. 

16 
South North 

Percent 

'0° / I 

PM. Hardwoo&-Plm/oth.r H a rd w ood s 

Pacific Coast 

Percent 

' I 

V 

Douglar-f lr Other Conftera Hardwoodr/other 

Figure 5-Area projections for forest type, by region. 

South. In our analysis, we classify five southern 

forest types: planted pine, natural pine, oak-pine, 

upland hardwoods, and bottomland hardwoods. 

Area of planted pine in the South is projected to 

increase substantially in the next 50 years (fig. 6). 

The vast majority of these acres will be converted 

from natural pine stands after final harvest, causing 

a corresponding decline in area of natural pine. The 

amount of land in both oak-pine and hardwoods is 

expected to decline slightly, primarily because of 

development for urban and built-up uses, and 

conversion to planted pine. 

There is an indication that changes in forest types 

will be more extensive in the South than in any other 

region. Large amounts of investment capital, particularly on industry lands, are transforming large 

Percent 

loo 0 

Coniterr/other Othrrr Hardwoodr 

Rocky Mountains 

Percent 

100 r I 

Million acres 

Pine Plantatton 

n -. L I I I I I I I t 

52 62 70 77 87 00 10 20 30 40 

Year 

Figure S-Timberland area in the South, by forest management 

type, 1952-1 987, with projections to 2040. 
acreages into intensively managed pine plantations. 

The area in pine plantations is projected to increase 

by over 20 million acres. 

Hardwood area in the South is projected to drop by 

about 10 percent by 2040. Reasons for this projected 

decline include: (1) conversion of some upland 

hardwood area to pine, especially on industry land; 

(2) clearing for cropland; and (3) conversion to urban 

and developed uses. 

Area in oak-pine or mixed pine-hardwood is projected 

to drop by over 6 million acres, or about one-fifth. 

Much of this reduction will occur on forest industry 

land, where many acres are converted to pine types. 

As an intermediate stage in natural succession, 

oak-pine is an unstable type. Many oak-pine acres 

result from human intervention (e.g., partial cutting of 

natural pine). Also, on some inland areas, oak-pine 

is the 'climax' forest type. 

North. The relative distribution of forest types is 

projected to change little over the projection period 

for the region as a whole. The largest area change 

is projected for northern hardwoods, which will 

increase by several million acres by 2040. Much of 

this forest type group is comprised of the climax and 

shade-tolerant maple-beech-birch, which is expected 

to increase because of successional forces. Increases 

will come largely at the expense of the oak-hickory 

area, which is projected to drop slowly. The forests 

of the North are relatively diverse and are in transition. 

Control of wildfire and selective cutting are favoring 

climax maple and beech over subclimax oak forest. 

In addition, some oak-hickory area is being converted 

to softwoods. However, the associated projected 

change is small because so much land in the North 

is held by nonindustrial private landowners who 

generally do not manage their forests intensively. 

Area in aspen-birch is also projected to drop. 

Aspen-birch, a pioneer type, requires disturbances. 

Because most stands were not managed in the past, 

the area of aspen-birch has been declining. The rate 

of area loss is projected to slow because more stands 

are likely to be harvested for panel and pulp production. Prior to the 1980's, relatively little aspen was 

cut, but since then removals of aspen have increased 

markedly in Minnesota, and to a lesser degree in the 

other Lake States. 

The area in softwood types is projected to drop 

slowly over the projection period. Spruce-fir may 

decline slightly due to harvesting pressures, the 

increased use of clearcutting, and environmental 

factors. The area in white-red-jack pine is also 

projected to drop slightly, and oak-pine is projected 

to gain in some cases at the expense of the white 

pine. The area in pitch-loblolly-shortieaf pine is 

expected to decline. Hemlock area is projected to 

increase dlue to natural succession on unmanaged 

nonindustrial private land. 

In the North's three major subdivisions-the Northeast, 

the Lake States, and the Central States-trends will 

be somewhat different. Timberland in the Northeast 

is heavily (dominated by hardwoods. The two major 

types, oak-hickory and maple-beech, are projected 

to decline slightly, primarily due to an overall reduction 

in timberland area in the subregion. Some land is 

projected to be converted to softvvoods: white pine 

in New York and Pennsylvania, and loblolly, shortleaf, 

and pitch pines in New Jersey, Delaware, and 

Maryland. This increase will be offset somewhat by 

the loss of white pine and spruce-fir to hardwoods in 

the New England States. 

For the Lake States a slight increase of area in pine 

types is projected, with increases in whiie and red 

pines offsetting declines in jack pine. Area of two 

other softwood types, swamp conifer and spruce fir, 

are projected to decline. Area in the maple-birch 

type is projected to increase substantially, while area 

of the aspen-birch type is projected to decline. Forest 

type projections for the Central States showed area 

declines for oak-hickory and oak-pine types and 

increases for pine, maple-birch, and bottomland 

hardwoods types. 

Pacific Coast. Projected net area changes for forest 

types in ttne Pacific Coast region are relatively small. 

The most substantial changes are projected for forest 

industry land, as more acres are planted to Douglas-fir. 

Because siufficient data were not available to construct 

forest type transition matrices for nonindustrial owners 

in the Douglas-fir subregion or for any owner group 

in the Interior subregion, the relative distributions of 

forest types for these groups were held constant at 

1987 levels. For similar reasons, we had to assume 

that regionwide trends in forest type changes would 

continue. Projected timberland losses are distributed 

across all forest types. 
Hardwood area on the forest industry land is projected 

to decline. If aider gumpage prices continue to rise, 

however, the rate of conversion from alder to other 

species may decline. Frequently, alder comes in 

naturally after softwood harvests on other ownerships, 

and its acreage has recently increased in some areas 

of Oregon and Washington west of the Cascades. 

A trend toward greater reliance on natural regeneration, which favors western hemlock in mixtures with 

Douglas-fir, is likely to continue. Other trends likely 

to continue include an increase in hardwoods in 

some coastal areas when conifers are harvested. In 

the Interior, tolerant species such as white fir and 

incense-cedar may increase as pines are removed 

from mixed conifer stands. 

The projected drop in the area of 'other softwoods" 

for the region primarily involves ponderosa and 

lodgepole pine. Many of these acres are in eastern 

Oregon and Washington. The projections are based 

on a continuation of recent trends. 

Conversion of other softwoods, western hardwoods, 

and all other types on industrial land is projected to 

favor Douglas-fir and western hemlock. Ninety percent 

of projected conversions are to Douglas-fir, and 10 

percent to western hemlock. It is unlikely that complete 

conversion of other softwoods, western hardwoods, 

and all other types will ever occur on this ownership. 

Half of the acres in these types are projected to be 

converted over the next 30 years. The other half will 

remain in the initial types or be converted to nonforest 

uses. 

Rocky Mountains. The relative distribution of forest 

type areas is expected to remain essentially constant 

over the projection period. Conifers dominate in this 

region and are projected to do so for the foreseeable 

future. 

Douglas-fir, ponderosa pine, fir-spruce, lodgepole 

pine, and western hardwoods make up a large majority 

of the timberland in this region. The hardwood species 

have wide ranges throughout much of the Rocky 

Mountains portion of the region. Management of 

timberland in this region is moving, in some cases, 

toward a different balance of traditional timber 

management and management emphasizing the 

production of nontimber values (USDA Forest Service 

1989a), and this may lead to changes in the frequency 

and size of man-caused disturbances that influence 

natural successional trends. 

Alternative Projections 

The projections reported thus far are predicated on 

assumptions about future economic growth, timber 

management practices, demands for other land for 

other uses, international markets for forestry and 

agricultural products, and other factors that affect 

land supply and demand. Changes in these assumptions alter the resulting projections. To assess other 

possiibilities, we examined two alternative sets of 

assumptions: (1) that all economically attractive 

opportunities for timber investment on private land 

would be pursued, and (2) that all marginal cropland 

and pastureland would revert to natural cover types 

if land were allocated to agriculture on a least-cost 

basis. Two other recent studies have also examined 

the possible effects of changes in economic conditions 

and changes in policy, and we briefly cover the 

implications of these other scenarios for future 

changes in timberland area. In the first, Parks (1988a) 

compared the relative value of marginal cropland for 

agricultural production and timber production. In the 

other, Moulton and Dicks (1987') evaluated the future 

effects of the 1985 Food Security Act in terms of the 

implications for forest-land area. 

Alternative No. 1 : Economic Opportunities 

on Private Timberland 

Nationwide, many acres could be managed to grow 

increased wood volumes per acre, market-preferred 

species, andlor higher valued products. These 

opportunities to increase timber growth exist in stands 

that are poorly stocked, have competing vegetation, 

have offsite or inappropriate species, are financially 

ovennature, or are in some other less than fully 

productive condition. Only opportunities that return 

at least 4 percent above inflation were considered 

(USDA Forest Service, in press). 

Not all the changes in area of timberland associated 

with this alternative are likely to occur. Instead, the 

alternative is provided as an upper bound for some 

measure of timberland area. If the investments were 

actually undertaken, two types of change could occur: 

(1) changes in forest types on existing timberland, 

through species conversions, and (2) conversion of 

nonforest to timberland. Forest types would change 

on 40 million acres of existing timberland (USDA 

Forest Service, in press). In addition, over 30 million 
acres would be added to the timberland base. The 

change in timberland area associated with this 

economic upper bound' is depicted in figure 7, 

along with the baseline RPA projection for total 

timberland area and the ecological 'upper bound 

represented by Alternative No. 2. 

The South's Fourth Forest report (USDA Forest Service 

1988) contains an analysis of the treatment opportunities for private land in the South, where most of the 

economic opportunities are located. Analyses of 

other regions were based on similar procedures for 

that study. Some of the opportunities were implicitly 

included in the baseline projections. 

To avoid double counting, these acres projected to 

be enrolled in the baseline case were subtracted 

from the Alternative No. 1 analysis. The primary data 

sources for economic opportunities to increase timber 

supplies are the USDA Forest Service's FIA compilations for individual States. 

Although many options are possible for each stand 

condition, one preferred option or treatment was 

selected for analysis on each class of acres. In general, 

selected options favored more intensive treatments 

to assure regeneration, control stocking, shorten 

rotations, and increase the value or size of crop 

trees. Natural stand management was preferred 

where artificial regeneration was considered inappropriate or uneconomical, The same options were 

used for all ownerships because available data were 

insufficient to develop consistent sets of options for 

different ownership groups. 

Management options were combined with treatment 

costs, yields, and stumpage prices to project cashflows for each investment opportunity. Cash-flows 

were analyzed to determine present net worth, internal 

rate of return, net timber volume gains, and capital 

costs per acre for each treatment group. Income 

taxes, ad valorem taxes, and land costs were excluded 

from the analyses. Stumpage price projections from 

the TAMMSOIATLAS model for 1989 RPA Assessment 

were used as input (USDA Forest Service, in press). 

A 4-percent interest rate in real terms (i.e,, net of 

inflation or deflation effects) was used for discounting 

all costs and revenues. Although 4 percent approximates the average long-run rate of return on investments in the private sector, it is an average. Because 

many management options yield higher rates of 

return, investments were also analyzed with a 

lo-percent rate of return to provide a measure of 

economic opportunities with high rates of return. 

- Baseline --++ Economic + Natural Reversion 

(Alternative 1) (Alternative 2) 

Figure 7-Projection of total timberland area under three sets of assumptions. 
In addition to possible changes in the overall area of to natural vegetation, either grass or forest cover. It 

timberland on private lands, implementation of other therefore tests the sensitivity of future forest area 

economic opportunities for timberland investment trends to area changes in the agricultural land base. 

would result in area changes for forest types on that 

timberland base. As with total timberland area Idle cropland area was determined from the 2030 

changes, the impacts would be greatest in the South intermediate scenario projections in the 1988 RCA 

(fig, 8; USDA Forest Service 1988). Appraisal. The Second RCA Appraisal projects the 

availability of 387 million acres of cropland in 2030. 

Of this total, 218 million acres are assumed to be Alternative No. 2: Reversion of Cropland used for crop production, and 40 million are assumed and Pastureland to Natural Cover Types to be enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program. 

Important factors that influence the demand for 

cropland-such as changes in the domestic and 

international demand for agricultural products and 

changes in agricultural production technologies- are 

difficult to project. The result is considerable uncertainty about future land reallocation. Alternative No. 2 

assumes that all surplus cropland, projected by the 

Second RCA Appraisal (USDA SCS 1989), will revert 

Thus, about 128 million acres are assumed to be 

idle. ldle land is that cropland that is not needed to 

meet lthe RCA projected demand for agricultural 

products, 

Suitability of the 128 million acres of idle cropland in 

the RCA 2030 intermediate scenario for reversion to 

forest cover was examined from an ecological 

perspective. Maps of potential natural vegetation 

All regions 66 million acres 

I 

Southeast 25 

Pacific Northwest 2 

North Central 

In baseline projection 

TI Not included in baseline projection 

Northeast rn 

Pacific Southwest 01 

Rocky Mountains 0-2 0 

Figure 8-Acres of potential timber investment opportunities on 

nonindustrial private forests in the United States, by region. 
types were overlayed on county maps to determine 

the Kuchler vegetation class for each counv.5 If a 

county had more than one dominant potential 

vegetation class associated with it, a percentage 

was assigned to each Kuchler class based on its 

proportional dominance on the county's land. 

This information was applied to the county-level data 

on idle cropland area to determine how much cropland 

would revert to each natural vegetation type. These 

data were then aggregated by RPA region. Kuchler 

classes were combined into four natural vegetation 

types: range, hardwood, softwood, and hardwoodsoftwood types. 

RPA baseline projections were assumed to already 

include a portion of the RCA idle cropland acres 

reverting to forest cover. To avoid double counting 

these acres in the surplus cropland and pastureland 

projections, the baseline amount was subtracted 

from the idle cropland area. One-twentieth of the 

remaining idle land was assumed to revert annually, 

starting in 1990; thus the entire idle cropland area 

was added by 2010. It was assumed for this alternative 

that this land would not change ownership class, so 

all of the idle acres were placed in the farmer and 

miscellaneous private class. 

An analysis based on Kuchler's classifications 

indicates that most of this idle land, some 96 million 

acres, would revert naturally to range. An additional 

16 million acres would revert to hardwoods, 15 million 

to a mixture of hardwoods and softwoods, and 1 

million to softwoods. This analysis may understate 

the amount of acres reverting to softwood types. The 

Kuchler vegetation classification system identifies 

potentially stable vegetation types in the late stages 

of plant succession. Early successional species that 

occupy abandoned cropland differ significantly from 

the identified types. Many decades may pass before 

cropland that reverts to timberland has the characteristics of natural vegetation types. If other disturbances 

occur, characteristics may never be the same. ' 

Roughly 40 percent of the RCA idle cropland available 

for reversion to forest was accounted for in the initial 

1989 RPA baseline timberland projections. The 

remaining 60 percent would add 19 million acres to 

the timberland base over the next 20 years. Most of 

these acres would be dominated by hardwood and 

hardwood-softwood types, and most are in the North 

and South. 

Other Scenarios 

Alternative No. 2 explored possible ecological conversion of surplus cropland to forest. Parks (1988a) 

analyzed the acres of idle cropland projected by the 

CARD model, used in SCS Appraisals, that would 

pass an economic screen for conversion to trees. 

Nationwide, less than 5 million acres outside the 

South are economically attractive for active conversion 

to trees. Many more agricultural acres in the South 

are economically attractive for conversion to trees 

(USDA Forest Service 1986). 

The advent of new policy programs has the potential 

to influence the amount and quality of timberland 

well into lthe next century. The 1985 Farm Security 

Act (FSA) contains many provisions that have such 

potential, as highlighted by a recent analysis by 

Moulton and Dicks (1987). This study indicates that 

various programs in FSA could, under certain 

assumptions, bring about a net increase of about 16 

million acres to the Nation's forest-land base between 

1986 and 1995. 

The Moulton and Dicks study indicates that approximately 45 million acres of highly erodible cropland 

are eligible for conversion to pasture or trees under 

the Conservation Reserve Program. While it is 

projected1 that much of this land will be converted to 

pasture, it is estimated that between 3 and 4 million 

acres, primarily in the South, will be planted to trees, 

primarily pine. 

Additional1 acres of marginal cropland could revert to 

trees, as farmers comply with the conservation 

provisions of the FSA. Farmers face the loss of 

government subsidies on all of their land if they do 

not comply with these provisions. If the provisions 

are strictly enforced, most farmers may have to convert 

marginal croplands to trees, or pasture may be the 

only option open to farmers. However, full implementation of the conservation compliance provisions is not 

expected for several years, and the magnitude of the 

changes resulting from its implementation are difficult 

to predict. 

5Research conducted by Ronald Hackett of the USDA Forest 

Service's North Central Forest Experiment Station. 
Two provisions of the F S A , t h e sodbuster and 

swampbuster, are designed to discourage the 

conversion of environmentally sensitive areas to 

farming. The sodbuster provision applies to 502 

million acres of highly erodible pasture, range, and 

forest land, of which 221 million have the potential 

for conversion to agriculture (74 million acres are 

currently forested). Soil conservation practices must 

be employed on these lands if they are converted to 

agriculture, or farmers would lose eligibility for most 

Federal farm program benefits for all of their land. 

The swampbuster provision works similarly but more 

strictly limits use. It applies to the 65 million acres of 

privately owned wetlands, of which 5 million acres 

have medium or high potential for conversion to 

agriculture and 2 million acres are wooded, Farmers 

who use land converted after December 23, 1985, 

can lose their eligibility for farm program benefits. 

Another consideration in the long-term outlook for 

changes in forest area is the implications of any 

significant global climate change that may occur. 

The possible implications of climate change is less 

than certain, both in terms of severii and timing, but 

it could have a substantial impact on changes in 

total forest area and the relative distribution of forest 

types over the longer term. The large body of ongoing 

related research and monitoring of the possible effects 

should assist in assessing its importance along with 

other factors that influence forest area changes. 

Summary and Conclusions 

The methods and models developed to project 

long-term area changes in area of timberland, by 

ownership and forest type, for the 1989 RPA Assessment will be useful in future assessments. Some 

improvements depend primarily on gathering additional data, because existing data were insufficient with 

which to develop econometric models for the Rocky 

Mounl:ains region and portions of the Pacific Coast 

and North. In these areas, we rely on expert opinion. 

Further research designed to increase the understanding of land values and further study of the factors 

that affect land use change could reduce the reliance 

on subjective opinions as the basis for land use . 

projections. 

The area in forests and rangeland has been declining 

in recent decades. A significant excess of cropgrowing capacity and government farm programs 

designed to reduce cropping on highly erodible 

lands are expected to partially offset losses of 

timberland for urban and related development. The 

total area of timberland is projected to decrease by 

about 4 percent between 1987 and 2040. 

In fact, loss of timberland has moderated since the 

last RPA Assessment in 1979. Many acres of forests 

and rangelands were converted to crop agriculture 

in the late 1970's and early 1980's, due mainly to 

rapid growth in agricultural exports. As with the rest 

of the economy, the reallocation of domestic land 

resources is increasingly influenced by international 

trade and economic conditions. In particular, exportdriven demand for crops such as soybeans led to 

conversion of many acres of bottomland forest. 

However, the current outlook for U.S. agriculture is 

uncertain. Area of cropland harvested is rising in 

some cases after declining in the early 1980's and 

recent FIA surveys indicate accompanying modest 

gains in forest area in a few States. International 

markets for, and supplies of, wood products may 

also affect land reallocation decisions. 

Several general points deriving from the timberland 

projections are: 

Although timberland is relatively abundant in 

the United States, projected reductions in 

timberland area imply further pressure on the 

forest resource base needed to supply a variety 

05 goods and services. 
e The most notable landscape changes are 

projected for the South, where substantial 

increases in planted pine area are expected. 

A majority of the cropland on which landowner 

returns could be increased by planting trees is 

in the South. Land use competition from 

agriculture is not expected to be as strong over 

prolonged periods as it was in the 1950's and 

1 970's. 

Timberland holdings of farmers will decline, 

while holdings of other nonindustrial private 

owners may increase in some regions. 

@ Projected changes in total timberland area over 

the next five decades are relatively small, 

compared with area changes between 1952 

and 1977. The trend is downward, but at a 

slower rate in recent years than in previous 

decades. 

Timberland conversions to urban and developed 

uses are projected to continue as the population 

of the United States increases by more than 90 

million people by 2040. 

e The intensiv of management and the proportion 

of acres in plantation are likely to increase on 

forest industry holdings, particularly in the South. 

e Conversion of idle cropland to forest is strongly 

influenced by public programs, such as the 

ongoing Conservation Reserve Program. Dm 

sition of idle land will need to be monitored to 

gauge possible impacts on timberland area, 

particularly where large amounts of marginal 

cropland exist. 

Acknowledgments 

The authors acknowledge the assistance of the 

regional FIA units in providing timberland data and 

the numerous reviewers of the preliminary timberland 

area projections. The high-quality assistance of Ms. 

Diane Riggsbee in preparing tables and other 

documentation for this study is also acknowledged. 

Partial funding for this study was provided by the 

RPA group of the USDA Forest Service. 
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Appendix 

Table Al- -Area of tiertd in the South, by geographic region and -dip class for 19!52, $962, 1970, 1977, and 1987, 

ui th projections to 2040 

,Region and State, Year Proj ecti ons 

by ownership class 1952 1962 1970 1977 1987 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 

Thousand acres 

Southeast 

Fl ori da 

Pub1 i c 2,251 2,220 2,146 2,158 2,166 2,216 2,212 2,207 2,203 2,201 

Forest i ndustry 4,369 4,767 4,758 4,658 4,789 4,838 4,802 4,752 4,711 4,675 

Farm and misc. priv. 11,515 9.843 9.557 9.027 8.283 8.061 7.871 7.502 7.218 7.016 

Total 18,135 16,830 16,461 15,843 15,238 15,115 14,885 14,461 14,132 13,892 

Georgi a 

Pub1 i c 1,685 1,813 1,600 1,589 1,609 1,586 1,590 1,594 1,602 1,595 

Forest industry 4,246 4,068 4,447 4,629 5,207 5,154 5,112 5,173 5,222 5,226 

Farm and misc. priv. 18,038 20,417 19,056 17,888 16,568 15.801 15.458 15.225 14.998 14.968 

Total 23,969 26,298 25,103 24,106 23,384 22,541 22,160 21,992 21,822 21,789 

North Carolina 

Pub1 i c 1,592 1,721 1,751 1,770 1,830 1,828 1,829 1,830 1,831 1,831 

Forest industry 2,584 2,495 2,644 2,140 2,337 2,441 2,453 2,459 2,471 2,480 

Farm and misc. priv. 15,407 15,774 15,735 15,525 14.191 13.404 13.343 13.250 13,192 13.169 

Total 19,583 19,990 20,130 19,435 18,358 17,673 17,625 17,539 17,494 17,400 

South Carolina 

Puhl i c 955 1,034 1,073 1,085 1,174 1,176 1,178 1,180 1,181 1,182 

Forest i ndustry 1,650 2,010 2,101 2,215 2,626 2,693 2,727 2,735 2,718 2,715 

Farm and misc. priv. 9,279 9.127 9.270 9.196 a. 379 7.989 8.114 8.184 8.196 8,m 

Total 11,884 12,171 12,444 12,496 12,179 11,858 12,019 12,099 12,095 12,083 

Vi rgi ni a 

Public 1,493 1,535 1,672 1,922 1,993 2,037 2,050 2,058 2,063 2,063 

Forest industry 1,095 1,454 1,634 1,670 1,834 1,890 1,878 1,909 1,923 1,937 

Farm and misc. priv. 12,909 12,763 12,553 12,347 11,608 11,116 11.113 11,084 11,048 11,029 

Total 15,497 15,752 15,859 15,939 15,435 15,043 15,041 15,051 15,034 15,029 

Total Southeast 

Pub1 ic 7,976 8,323 8,242 8,524 8,772 8,843 8,859 8,869 8,880 8,872 

Forest industry 13,944 14,794 15,584 15,312 16,793 17,016 16,972 17,028 17,045 17,033 

Farm and misc. priv. 148 67,924 66,171 63,983 59,029 56.371 55.899 55.245 54.652 54.360 

Total # 068 91,041 89,997 87,819 &,5% 82,230 81,730 81,142 80,577 80,273 

South Central 

A1 abasa 

Public 968 1,003 1,021 1,091 1,161 1,195 1,190 1,194 1,198 1,201 

Forest industry 3,138 3,818 4,302 4,330 4,464 4,677 4,768 4,833 4,873 4,935 

Farm and misc, priv. 16,650 16.923 16,095 16.077 16.034 15.935 15,784 15.623 15.293 15.125 

Total 20,756 21,744 21,418 21,498 21,659 21,807 21,742 21,650 21,364 21,261 

Arkansas 

Public 2,916 2,856 2,939 2,918 3,011 3,193 3,315 3,383 3,450 3,466 

Forest i ndustry 4,157 4,007 3,975 4,156 4,240 4,254 4,265 4,280 4,297 4,326 

Farm and dsc. priv. 12,554 13,108 11,118 9.719 9,422 a. 196 7,808 7.466 7,323 7.283 

Total 19,627 19,971 18,032 16,793 16,673 15,643 15,388 15,129 15,070 15,075 

Kentucky 

Public 725 652 820 895 890 913 917 927 937 947 

Forest industry 308 308 228 255 205 192 182 172 16 1 150 

Fan and misc. priv. lo, 464 10,691 10,778 10,752 10.814 11.029 11,155 11.273 11,370 11.459 

f 0ta\ 11,497 11,651 11,826 11,902 11,909 12,134 12,254 12,372 12,468 12,556 
Table Al--Area of timberlad in the South, by geographic region and omership class for 1952, 1962,1970, 1977, end 1987, 

with projections to 2040--Continued 

Region and State, Year Pro j ecti ons 

by ownership class 1952 1962 1970 1977 1987 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 

Thousand acres 

Loui si ana 

Pub1 i c 848 883 1,022 1,024 1,331 1,384 1,407 1,428 1,444 1,449 

Forest industry 3,166 3,032 3,491 3,773 3,603 3,625 3,632 3,636 3,642 3,654 

Farm and misc. priv. 12,025 12.121 10.617 9,495 8,938 8.663 8.557 8.468 8,405 8,324 

Total 16,039 16,036 15,130 14,292 13,872 13,672 13,596 13,532 13,491 13,427 

Mi ssi ssi ppi 

Pub1 i c 1,719 1,720 1,770 1,677 1,724 1,755 1,759 1,763 1,765 1,766 

Forest industry 2,461 2,526 2,652 2,995 2,864 2,916 2,942 2,961 2,979 2,998 

Farm and misc. priv. 12,673 12.798 12.353 11.832 12,085 11,680 11.472 11,226 10.972 10.786 

Total 16,853 17,044 16,775 16,504 16,673 16,351 16,173 15,950 15,716 15,550 

Oklahoma 

Public 634 567 562 563 632 631 628 625 623 621 

Forest industry 889 865 931 1,009 1,046 1,055 1,059 1,064 1,068 1,072 

Farm and misc. priv. 3,552 3,460 3,127 2,747 3,071 2.953 2,879 2,803 2,726 2,653 

Total 5,075 4,892 4,620 4,319 4,749 4, 639 4, 566 4,492 4.417 4,346 

Tennessee 

Pub1 i c 1,114 1,199 1,287 1,161 1,360 1,363 1,365 1,374 1,373 1,373 

Forest i ndustry 713 923 1,IZf. 1,212 1,220 1,253 1,276 1,300 1,310 1,318 

Farm and misc. priv. 10.724 11.243 10,412 10.489 10,260 10.003 9.821 9.666 9,650 9,639 

Total 12,551 13,365 12,820 12,862 12,860 12,619 12,462 12,340 12,333 12,330 

Texas 

Pub1 i c 786 833 779 776 80 1 809 812 8 17 820 822 

Forest i ndustq 3,019 3,362 3,615 3,818 3,796 3,772 3,761 3,756 3,754 3,751 

Fam and misc. priv. 9.276 8,765 8,325 7,832 7.817 7,612 7,486 7,435 7,433 7,427 

Total 13,081 12,960 12,719 12,426 12,414 12,193 12,059 12,008 12,007 12,000 

Total South Central 

Public 9,710 9,713 10,200 10,105 10,910 11,243 11,393 11,511 11,610 11,645 

Forest i ndustry 17,851 18,841 20,315 21,548 21,438 21,744 21,885 22,002 22,084 22,204 

Farm and misc. priv. 87.918 89.109 82,825 78,943 78.441 76.071 74.962 73.960 73.172 72,696 

Total 115,479 117,663 113,340 110,596 110,789 109,058 108,240 107,473 106,866 106,545 

Total South 

Pub1 i c 17,686 18,036 18,442 18,629 19,682 20,086 20,252 20,380 20,490 20,517 

Forest industry 31,795 33,635 35,899 36,860 38,231 38,760 38,857 39,030 39, 129 39,237 

Farm and misc. priv. m066 157,033 148.996 142.926 137.470 132.442 130,861 129.205 127.824 127,064 

Total 204,547 208,704 203,337 198,415 195,383 191,288 189,970 188,615 187,443 186,818 
Table &?--Area of tihrld in the North, by geographic region and omership class for 1952, 1962, IQflO, 1977, and IQIST, 

wi th projections to 2040 

Region and State, Year Proi ec ti ons 

by ownership class 1952 1962 1970 1977 1987 2Mf0 2010 2020 2030 2040 

,Northeast 

Connecti cut 

Public 

Forest industry 

Fam and nisc. priv. 

Total 

- Delaware 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Farn and misc. priv. 

Total 

Mai ne 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Fanu and misc. priv. 

Total 

Mary1 and 

Public 

Forest industry 

Farm and nisc, priv. 

Total 

Massachusetts 

Publ i c 

Forest i ndustry 

Farn and misc. priv. 

Total 

New Hampshi re 

Publ i c 

Forest i ndustry 

Fam and nisc. priv. 

Total 

New Jersey 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Farm and misc, priv. 

Total 

New York 

Public 

Forest i ndustry 

Farn and dsc. priv. 

Total 

Pennsyl vani a 

Publ i c 

Forest i ndustry 

Fam and nisc. priv. 

Total 

Rhode Island 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Fam and misc. priv. 

Total 

Thousand acres 
+ Table &?--Area of tilaberlanf in the North, by geographic region and ownership class for 1952, 1Pb;L, 1970, 1977, and 1987, 

with projections to 2040- -Cmt inued 

Region and State, Year Proi ecti ons 

by ownership class 1952 1962 1970 1977 1987 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 

Thousand acres 

Vermnt 

Pub1 i c 297 329 406 422 660 677 693 707 707 708 

Forest i ndustry 528 528 678 666 352 347 343 339 336 332 

Farm and misc. priv. 3,021 3,354 3.280 3,342 3.412 3.442 3,396 3,246 3.204 3.158 

Total 3,846 4,211 4.364 4,430 4,428 4,466 4,432 4,292 4, 247 4,198 

Uest Vi rgi ni a 

Pub1 i c 982 1,036 1,046 1,121 1,320 1,323 1,328 1,333 1,338 1,344 

Forest industry 2 70 530 530 880 1,036 1,035 1,031 1,026 1,020 1,013 

Farm and misc. priv. 9,024 9,823 9.864 9.483 9.442 9.481 9,490 9, 487 9,476 9,453 

Total 10,276 11,389 11,440 11,484 11,m 11,839 11,849 11,846 11,834 11,810 

Total Northeast 

Pub1 i c 7,255 7,519 7,790 8,234 9,770 9,978 10,081 10,153 10,203 10,243 

Forest i ndustry 10,144 10,105 12,214 12,789 12,590 12,500 12,422 12,388 12,328 12,257 

Farm and misc. priv. 55.636 60,252 58,039 57,539 57,741 57.604 57,135 55,702 54,596 53,762 

Total 73,035 77,876 78,043 78,562 80,101 80,082 79,638 78,243 77,127 76,262 

North Central 

Illinois 

Pub1 i c 226 240 288 330 389 361 36 1 361 361 361 

Forest industry I0 17 16 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 

Farm and misc. priv. 3,594 3, 777 3,730 3.688 3.628 3.582 3,513 3,437 3.418 3.401 

Total 3,830 4,034 4,034 4,033 4,030 3,956 3,887 3,811 3,792 3,m 

I ndi ana 

Pub1 i c 283 294 361 410 535 53 1 531 531 531 531 

Forest industry 9 9 2 2 2 7 18 19 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 1 

Farm and mi sc. priv. 3,723 3,627 3.457 3,378 3,743: 3,641 3.584 3.543 3,504 3.472 

Total 4,015 3.930 3,840 3,815 4, 296 4,191 4,135 4,094 4,056 4,024 

Iowa 

Publ i c 

Forest i ndustry 

Farm and misc. priv. 2.558 1,939 1,593 1,331 1.358 1,331 1,270 1,227 1,231 1,236 

Total 2,595 1,999 1, 700 1,461 1,460 1,433 1,372 1,329 1,333 1,338 

Mi chi gan 

Pub1 i c 6,310 6,310 6,441 6,378 6,310 6,282 6,305 6,328 6,352 6,376 

Forest i ndustry 1,548 1,548 2,257 2,137 1,966 2,009 2,035 2,051 2,054 2,061 

Fam and misc. priv. 11,263 11,263 10,102 9,684 9,088 8,990 a.921 8,862 8.825 8,815 

Total 19,121 19,121 18,800 18,199 17,364 17,281 17,261 17,241 17,231 17,252 

Minnesota 

Pub1 i c 9,124 8,158 7,995 7,329 7,279 7,277 7,277 7,277 7,277 7,277 

Forest i ndustry 578 716 a1 4 772 788 788 788 788 788 788 

Fam and misc. priv. 6.878 6,538 5,686 5,595 5,505 5,359 5,297 5,262 5,241 5,240 

Total 16,580 15,412 14,495 13,696 13,572 13,424 13,362 13,327 13,306 13,305 

Mi ssouri 

Pub1 i c 1,617 1,571 1,600 1,532 1,657 1,665 1,672 1,680 1,684 1,687 

Forest i ndustry 460 280 343 362 231 236 240 244 248 252 

Fam and sisc. priv. 12.223 11,649 10,557 10,394 10,107 10.064 10,038 10.021 10,020 10.019 

Total 14,300 13,500 12,500 12,288 11,995 11,965 11,950 11,945 11,952 11,958 

Ohi o 

Pub1 i c 297 360 365 411 423 423 423 428 428 428 

Forest industry 30 7 4 127 186 186 180 179 178 176 175 

Farm and misc. priv. 5,123 5,607 5.930 6,319 6,532 6,727 6,672 6,481 6,422 6,358 

Total 5,450 6,041 6,422 6,916 7,141 7,330 7,274 7,087 7,026 6,961 
Table U--Area of timberland in the North, by geographic region and mr&ip class for 1952,1962,1970, 1977, and t(lrs7, 

uith projections to 2MO--Continued 

Region and State, Year Proi ections 

by ownership class 1952 1962 1970 1977 1987 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 

Wisconsin 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Fam and misc. priv. 

Total 

Total North Central 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Fam and misc. priv. 

Total 

Total North 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Farm and misc. priv. 

Total 

- Thousand acres 

Note: Area estimates for ownerships in some States with zero or little acreage (less than 4,000 acres) are shown as zero. 
Table fi--Area of tilaberld in the Pacific Coast, by geographic region and omership class for 1952, 1962, 1970, 1977, 

and 1987, with projections to 2040 a 

Region and State, Year Proi ecti ons 

by ownership class 1952 1962 1970 1977 1987 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 

Thousand acres 

Pacific Northwest 

A1 aska, interior 

Pub1 i c 12,866 12,538 12,428 12,316 4,595 4,484 4,389 4,310 4,296 4,282 

Forest i ndustw- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Farm and mi%. priv. 12 1 254 310 367 5,469 5,585 5.683 5,762 5.776 5,790 

Total 12,987 12,792 12,738 12,683 10,064 0,069 lO,On 10,072 10,072 10,072 

A1 aska, coastal 

Pub1 i c 7,326 7,297 7,270 6,954 5,005 4,747 4,736 4,725 4,724 4,723 

Forest industry 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Farm and misc. priv. 3 0 30 3 0 8 5 694 950 951 952 953 954 

Total 7,356 7,327 7,300 7,039 5,699 5,697 5,687 5,677 5,677 5,677 

Oregon, western 

Pub1 i c 7,730 7,817 7,749 7,445 7,119 6,962 6,954 6,950 6,910 6,873 

Forest i ndustry 3,128 3,548 3,624 3,895 3,547 3,853 3,978 4,017 4,059 4,063 

Farm and misc. priv. 3,743 3,354 3,234 2,311 2.358 2,054 1,937 1.894 1,851 1,853 

Total 14,601 14,719 14,607 13,651 13,024 12,869 12,869 12,861 12,820 12,789 

Oregon, eastern 

Pub1 i c 8,065 7,741 7,715 7,682 6,587 6,273 6,206 6,145 6,033 5,926 

Forest industry 1,533 1,540 1,628 1,627 1,568 1,523 1,491 1,464 1,456 1,449 

Farm and misc. priv. 1.489 1.623 1.379 1.251 907 903 898 894 893 893 

Total 11,087 10,904 10,722 10,560 9,062 8,699 8,595 8,503 8,382 8,268 

Washington, western 

Pub1 i c 4,349 4,250 4,123 3,991 4,179 4,030 4,011 3,992 3,962 3,932 

Forest i ndustry 3,748 3,686 3,598 3,581 3,708 3,764 3,761 3,714 3,619 3,500 

Farm and misc. priv. 2,531 2,416 2.270 2,216 2,229 2.093 1,980 1.873 1,797 1,739 

Total 10,628 10,352 9,991 9,788 10,116 9,887 9,752 9, 579 9,378 9,171 

Washington, eastern 

Pub1 i c 5,537 5,500 5,395 5,203 4,472 4,364 4,360 4,356 4,332 4,308 

Forest industry 637 652 750 738 880 87 1 862 856 853 85 1 

Farm and misc. priv. 2,386 2,356 2.265 2,193 1.380 1,358 1.331 1.306 1.295 1.286 

Total 8,5@ 8,508 8,410 8,134 6,732 6,593 6,553 6,518 6,480 6,445 

Total Pacific Northwest 

Pub1 i c 45,873 45,143 44,680 43,591 31,957 30,860 30,656 30,478 30,257 30,044 

Forest i ndustry 9,046 9,426 9,600 9,841 9,703 10,011 10,092 10,051 9,987 9,863 

Farm and misc. priv. 10,300 10,033 9.488 8.423 13.037 12,943 12.780 12,681 12,565 12.515 

Total 65,219 64,602 63,768 61,855 54,697 53,814 53,528 53,210 52,809 52,422 

Pacific Southwest 

California 

Pub1 i c 9,075 9,430 9,448 8,675 9,257 8,771 8,713 8,641 8,617 8,593 

Forest i ndustry 2,167 2,445 2,671 2,687 2,757 2,830 2,711 2,566 2,404 2,242 

Farm and misc. priv. 5,885 5,323 4,962 4.941 4,698 4.161 3,924 3,692 3.471 3,252 

Total 17,127 17,198 17,081 16,303 16,712 15,762 15,348 14,899 14,492 14,087 

Hawai i 

Pub1 i c 496 496 454 454 338 336 335 334 333 332 

Forest i ndus try 0 0 0 0 tl 0 0 0 0 0 

Farm and misc. priv. 593 593 494 494 362 316 308 300 293 287 

Total 1,089 1,089 9 48 948 700 652 643 634 626 619 

Total Pacific Southwest 

Pub1 i c 9,571 9,926 9,902 9,129 9,595 9,107 9,048 8,975 8,950 8,925 

Forest industry 2,167 2,445 2,671 2,687 2,757 2,830 2,711 2,566 2,404 2,242 

Farm and misc. priv. 6,478 5,916 5,456 5,435 5,060 4,477 4,232 3,992 3,764 3,539 

Total 18,216 18,287 18,029 17,251 17,412 16,414 15,991 15,533 15,118 14,706 
Table AS--Arga of tibrld in the Pacific Coast, by geographic region and awlership class for 1952,-62, 1970, 1977, 

and 1987, with projections to ZMO--Conti 

Region and State, Year Projections 

by omership class 1952 1962 1970 1977 1987: 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 

Thousand acres 

Total Pacific Coast 

Pub1 i c 55,444 55,069 54,582 52,720 41,552 39,967 39,704 39,453 39,207 38,969 

Forest i ndustry 11,213 11,871 12,271 12,528 12,460 12,841 12,803 12,617 12,391 12,105 

Farin and misc, priv. 778 15.949 14.944 13,858 18.097 17.420 17.012 16.673 16.329 16.054 

Total 83,435 82,889 81,797 79,106 72,109 70,228 69,519 68,743 67,92 7 67,128 

Note: Area estimates for ownerships in some States with zero or little acreage (less than 4,000 acres) are shown as zero. 
Table M--Am of timberland in the Great Plains and Rocky mtains, by geographic region end omrship c~SS for 1952, 

1970, 1977, and 1987, with projections to 2040 

Region and State, Year Proi ecti ons 

by ownership class 1952 1962 1970 1977 1987 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 

Thousand acres Greet Pl ai ns 

Kansas 

!%k.kk$ i ndustry a 3a 3 7 3 7 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Fadofadd misc. priv, 1 19A 1 151 1,151 1.15: 1.166 1,173 1.189 1.195 1,199 

1,188 1,188 1,208 1,217 1,224 1,240 1,246 1,250 

Nebraska 

Pub1 i c 6 2 6 0 6 3 6 3 6 4 6 3 63 6 3 6 3 6 3 

Forest industry 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Farm and misc. priv. 672 615 570 530 473 445 443 442 44 1 440 

Total 734 675 633 593 5 3 7 508 506 505 504 503 

North Dakota 

Pub1 i c 139 128 125 124 67 66 6 6 66 6 6 66 

Forest industry 0 0 0 0 0 D 0 0 0 0 

Farm and misc. priv. 312 296 28 1 281 271 267 266 268 260 

Total 45 1 424 406 405 338 333 332 329 326 324 

South Dakota 

I%Pkk$ industry 1,139 ltlq+ 1,107 1,106 1,044 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 1,028 

17 16 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 

Farm and misc. priv. 475 417 410 345 381 375 369 363 

Total 1,622 1,541 1,534 1,467 1,446 1,424 1,418 1,412 1,407 1,402 

Total Great Plains 

#%!&&% industry 1,359 13 1,3aq 1,330 1,226 1,208 1,208 1,208 1,208 1,208 

16 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 

Farm and misc. priv. 2.640 2,486 2,412 2.307 2.282 2.253 2,251 2.257 2.254 2.250 

Total 4,015 3,835 3,761 3,653 3,529 3,482 3,480 3,686 3,483 3,479 

Rocky Wourtains 

Arizona 

811Pkkf i ndustry 3,45% 3,52(a 3,528 3,729 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 3,746 

- 1 66 0 0 0 D 0 0 0 

Farm andmisc. priv. lfi13,3,690 166 4 3 4 2 4 1 40 39 3 8 

Total 3,621 3,693 3,895 3,789 3, 788 3, 787 3, 786 3,785 3,784 

Colorado 

h!i@& industry 9~1% 9,235 8,4655 8,196 8,514 7,971 7,971 7,971 7,971 7,971 

15 0 0 0 0 0 D 

Farm and misc. priv. 3. 127 3.113 3,104 3,104 fi 3.188 3.169 3.150 3.131 3. lo,& 

Total 12,284 12,359 11,584 11,315 11,740 11,159 11,140 11,121 11,102 11,071 

Idaho 

Pub1 i c 12,497 12,695 12,172 10, 520 11,435 11,021 11,021 11,021 11,021 11,021 

Forest i ndustry 954 950 947 947 1,198 1,196 1,195 1,194 1,194 1,194 

Farm and aisc. priv. 2,090 1 8.. t?& 2.074 2.074 ?.?a% 1,831 l,n6 ! , ,772 1,672 1.622 

Total 15,541 15,193 13,541 14,534 14,048 13,992 13,93f 13,887 13.837 

Montana 

Pub1 i c 12,154 12,251 11,418 g, 794 10,0414- 10,003 10,003 10,003 10,003 10,003 

Forest industry 1,063 1,059 1,055 1,055 1,703 1,701 1,699 1,698 1,697 1,696 

Farm and sisc, priv. 3.536 3.521 3.510 3.510 3,0301 3.026 3.023 3.020 3,020 3,020 

Total 16,753 16,831 15,983 14,359 14,737 14,730 14.m 14,721 14,720 14,719 

Nevada 

Pub1 i c 7 3 73 6 0 66 109' 6 2 6 2 62 62 6 2 

Forest industry 8 8 8 8 0 o 0 0 0 0 

Farm and misc. priv. 19: 6 1 6 0 6 0 11 2 108 106 103 102 100 

Total 142 128 134 2 2 1 170 168 165 164 162 
Table kri--Am of tijdx?rlarwj in the Great Plains and Rocky )lovrtains, by geographic region and ourefship clasol for 1952, 

1962, 1970, 1977, ad 1987, with projections to ;1060--Contin#Jd 

Region and State, Year Proj ecti ons 

by ownership class 1952 1962 1970 1977 1987 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 

Thousand acres 

Mew Mexico 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Fara and aisc. priv. 

Total 

Utah 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Farm and misc. priv. 

Total 

Uyomi ng 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Fara and aisc. priv. 

Total 

Total Rocky btain 

Publ i c 

Forest industry 

Farm and misc. priv. 

Total 

Total Great Plains and 

Rocky nOUlt ians 

Pub1 i c 49,455 49,994 47,739 43,468 44,131 43,108 43,108 43,108 43,108 43,108 

Forest industry 2,250 2,242 2,233 2,095 2,964 2,960 2,957 2,955 2,954 2,953 

Fara and aisc. priv. 14,898 14.690 14,578 14.610 14.045 13.795 13.631 13.478 13.330 13.168 

Total 66,603 66,926 64,550 60,173 61,140 59,863 59,696 59,541 59,392 59,229 

Total United States 

Pub1 i c 152,833 152,487 150,221 144,241 136,353 134,309 134,348 134,336 134,281 134,140 

Forest industry 58,979 61,436 67,578 68,936 70,606 71,466 71,474 71,444 71,262 71,022 

Fam and aisc, priv. 297,048 301,202 286,255 277,965 276.359 269.975 266,932 262.860 259.672 257.486 

Total 508,860 515,125 504,054 491,142 483,318 475,750 472,754 468,640 465,215 462,648 

Note: Area estimates for ownerships in some States with zero or little acreage (less than 4,000 acres) are shown as zero. 
r------ ------"-"--- - ----------- ----- 

lw 

I Jig, Ralph J.; Hohensteln, William 0.; Murray, Brlan C.; Haight, 

I Robert G. 1990. Changes in area of timberland in the United States, 

I 1952-2040, by ownership, forest type, region, and State. Gen. Tech. 

1 Rep. SE-64. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agricukure, Forest 

I Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 34 pp. 

I 

I Area change projections for timberland in the United States are provided 

I by region. State, ownership, and forest type. Total timberland area is 

I projected to drop by 21 million acres or 4 percent by the year 2040. 

T -----------------------.-_.--_.----- 

I Alig, Ralph J.; Hohensteln, Willlam G.; Murray, Brian C.; Halght, 

1 Robert G. 1990, Changes in area of timberland in the United States, 

I 1952-2040, by ownership, forest type, region, and State. Gen. Tech. 

1 Rep. SE-64. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

1 Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station. 34 pp. 

I 

I Area change projections for timberland in the United States are provided 

I by region, State, ownership, and forest type. Total timberland area is 

I projected to drop by 21 million acres or 4 percent by the year 204% 

I 1 

I KEWVORDS: Land use change. RPA Assessment, land allocation. ) KWORDS:~.~~"!!-% change, RPA Assessment, land allocation. 

I I