____________________________________________________________________________ This document is available to the public from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161 

 

DOT HS 809 952 January 2006 

Technical Report 

 

VEHICLE SURVIVABILITY

AND

TRAVEL MILEAGE SCHEDULES 

Published By: 

NHTSA’s 

National Center for Statistics and Analysis 
Technical Report Documentation Page 

1. Report No.

DOT HS 809 952 

2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipients's Catalog No. 

5. Report Date 

January, 2006 

4. Title and Subtitle

Vehicle Survivability and Travel Mileage Schedules 6. Performing Organization Code 

NPO-130 

7. Author(s)

S. Lu 

8. Performing Organization Report No.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)n code

National Center for Statistics and Analysis 

Regulatory Analysis and Evaluation Division 

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 

U.S. Department of Transportation 

NPO-130, 400 Seventh Street, S.W. 

Washington, DC 20590 

11. Contract of Grant No. 

13. Type of Report and Period Covered

NHTSA Technical Report 

12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address

U.S. Department of Transportation 

NPO-130, 400 Seventh Street, S.W. 

Washington, DC 20590

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

15.Supplementary Notes 

16. Abstract

This document serves to update the 1995 document of the same title. In this revision, we attempt to retain the 

methodology as much as possible from the previous release. Regardless, some changes were introduced in 

this updated analysis when needed. In this revision, we find that passenger cars and light trucks are being 

driven farther in their lifetimes (approximately 26,000 miles more per vehicle class). However, whereas 

younger passenger cars (less than 20 years old) are surviving slightly longer relative to the previous study, 

light trucks are not surviving as long as before early on in their existence, presumably due to the fact that they 

are being used more often as passenger vehicles than strictly for cargo. 

The updated analysis shows that a typical passenger car will travel a lifetime mileage of 152,137 miles, while 

light trucks will travel 179,954 miles. Passenger car lifetime weighted present discount factors at 3 percent, 7 

percent and 10 percent are, respectively, 0.8304, 0.6700 and 0.5824; for light trucks with the same discount 

rates, respectively, 0.8022, 0.6303 and 0.5419. 

17. Key Words 

VMT, vehicle miles traveled, survival rate, survivability, 

discount factors, lifetime vehicle mileage 

18. Distribution Statement

Document is available to the public through the National 

Technical Information Service, 

Springfield, VA 22161

19. Security Classif. (of this report)

 Unclassified 

20. Security Classif. (of this page)

 Unclassified 

21. No of Pages

40 (including title page) 

22. Price

Form DOT F1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized 
iii

Table of Contents 

Executive Summary ____________________________________________________ 1

1. Introduction of Current Survivability and VMT Schedules _________________ 2

1.1. Passenger Cars ___________________________________________________ 2

1.2. Light Trucks _____________________________________________________ 2

2. Data Sources________________________________________________________ 5

3. Survivability Analysis ________________________________________________ 6

3.1. Passenger Cars ___________________________________________________ 6

3.2 Light Trucks _____________________________________________________ 10

4. VMT Analysis______________________________________________________ 13

4.1. Passenger Cars __________________________________________________ 14

4.2. Light Trucks ____________________________________________________ 17

5. Lifetime Mileage____________________________________________________ 21

5.1. Passenger Cars __________________________________________________ 21

5.2. Light Trucks ____________________________________________________ 24

6. Discount Factors____________________________________________________ 27

7. Appendix__________________________________________________________ 34

7.1. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) VMT Schedules _______________ 35
1

Executive Summary 

Vehicle survivability and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) schedules for passenger cars and 

light trucks were developed from 1977 to 2002 registration and 2001 mileage survey 

data. Compared to similar projections made in 1995, we found that passenger cars are 

lasting longer whereas light trucks are not lasting as long. However, both are being 

driven slightly farther than previous schedules had indicated. 

In this analysis, vehicle age was cut off for passenger cars and light trucks when the 

Estimated Survival Rate reached an approximately two percent threshold. Thus, the 

lifetime VMT of passenger cars was extended to 25 years to arrive at 152,137 miles; and 

the lifetime VMT of light trucks was extended to 36 years to arrive at 179,954 miles. 

Previous lifetime VMT estimates were 126,665 for passenger cars (20 years) and 153,698 

(25 years) for light trucks. Discount factors are also updated in this analysis and 

summarized below along with the lifetime mileage. 

Lifetime Lifetime Weighted Present Discount Factor 

Mileage 3% 7% 10% 

Passenger Car 152,137 0.8304 0.6700 0.5824 

Light Truck 179,954 0.8022 0.6303 0.5419 

These updated schedules should be used to assess the effects of proposed fuel economy 

and safety standards. 
2

1. Introduction of Current Survivability and VMT Schedules 

Survivability and vehicle mileage by age schedules are needed to accurately assess the 

impact of automotive fuel economy standards and safety standards. The survivability 

schedule can be used to estimate the phase-in of new safety equipment into the vehicle 

fleet. These two schedules are used to compute the total weighted travel mileage over the 

vehicle lifetime, which is used to estimate the impact of proposed fuel economy standards 

on future fuel consumption and operating costs. (“Current” refers to the 1995 VMTSurvivability schedule whereas “Updated” denotes newly acquired information utilized in 

updating the 1995 schedule.) 

1.1. Passenger Cars 

The 20-year schedule1

 for passenger car survivability currently in use by the National 

Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) was developed from R.L. Polk & 

Company data on registered vehicles in use by model year over the calendar years 1975 

to 1993. The vehicle miles traveled (VMT) schedule currently used for passenger cars is 

derived from the 1991 Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey

(RTECS)—which was designed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the 

Department of Energy (DOE)—to collect information on the use of energy in residential 

vehicles in the United States. 

These passenger car schedules are shown in Table 1. The fourth column of Table 1, 

“Weighted Average Yearly Travel,” is the product of the previous two columns—the 

survivability and VMT schedules. The average lifetime passenger car weighted VMT is 

simply the sum of the yearly average travel miles over the lifetime of the car. In this 

case, we estimated that a passenger car would last roughly 20 years and travel a lifetime 

mileage of 126,665 miles. 

1.2. Light Trucks 

The survivability and VMT 25 year schedules currently used by NHTSA for light truck 

regulatory impact analyses are shown in Table 2. Survivability data was obtained from 

1975 to 1993 R.L. Polk and Company registrations on trucks in operation. Light truck 

VMT data was also taken from the 1991 RTECS. 

The weighted yearly travel was again the product of survivability and VMT. The total 

light truck weighted VMT calculated from these schedules was 153,698 miles. 

Note that based on the 1975 to 1993 Polk data, 7.9 percent of passenger cars are still on 

the road after 20 years and 12.1 percent of light trucks are still on the road after 25 years. 

 

1 Updated Vehicle Survivability and Travel Mileage Schedules, NHTSA (Report Number: DOT HS 808 

339), November 1995. 
3

Table 1 

Current Yearly Travel, Survival Probability, and Weighted Yearly Travel as a Function 

of Passenger Car Vehicle Age 

Vehicle Age Estimated Survivability Estimated VMT 

(exponential model)

Weighted Average 

Yearly Travel Miles

1 0.995 13,533 13,459 

2 0.988 12,989 12,839 

3 0.978 12,466 12,191 

4 0.962 11,964 11,505 

5 0.938 11,482 10,776 

6 0.908 11,020 10,005 

7 0.870 10,577 9,200 

8 0.825 10,151 8,376 

9 0.775 9,742 7,549 

10 0.721 9,350 6,737 

11 0.644 8,974 5,779 

12 0.541 8,613 4,662 

13 0.445 8,266 3,675 

14 0.358 7,933 2,843 

15 0.285 7,614 2,167 

16 0.223 7,308 1,632 

17 0.174 7,014 1,218 

18 0.134 6,731 902 

19 0.103 6,460 665 

20 0.079 6,200 488 

Lifetime Miles Traveled for Passenger Cars 126,665
4

Table 2 

Current Yearly Travel, Survival Probability, and Weighted Yearly Travel as a Function 

of Light Truck Vehicle Age 

Vehicle Age Estimated Survivability Estimated VMT 

(exponential model)

Weighted Average 

Yearly Travel Miles

1 0.998 12,885 12,853 

2 0.995 12,469 12,401 

3 0.989 12,067 11,937 

4 0.980 11,678 11,450 

5 0.967 11,302 10,932 

6 0.949 10,938 10,376 

7 0.924 10,585 9,782 

8 0.894 10,244 9,154 

9 0.857 9,914 8,498 

10 0.816 9,594 7,825 

11 0.795 9,285 7,378 

12 0.734 8,985 6,593 

13 0.669 8,696 5,820 

14 0.604 8,415 5,079 

15 0.539 8,144 4,387 

16 0.476 7,882 3,755 

17 0.418 7,628 3,187 

18 0.364 7,382 2,686 

19 0.315 7,144 2,250 

20 0.271 6,913 1,875 

21 0.232 6,691 1,555 

22 0.198 6,475 1,285 

23 0.169 6,266 1,058 

24 0.143 6,064 869 

25 0.121 5,869 712 

 Lifetime Miles Traveled for Light Trucks 153,698
5

2. Data Sources 

The primary source of data for determining vehicles in operation is the National Vehicle 

Population Profile (NVPP) compiled by R.L. Polk and Company. The NVPP is an 

annual census, as of July 1 of each year, of passenger cars and light trucks registered for 

on-road operation in the United States. NVPP registration data was utilized from vehicle 

model years 1977 to 2003. Survival rates were averaged for the five most recent model 

years for vehicles up to 20 years old. 

Recent government-sponsored surveys of vehicle travel attempted to develop up-to-date 

VMT schedules. One such survey is the 2001 National Household Travel Survey 

(NHTS)—previously called the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS)—

sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 

and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The NHTS is the integration of 

two national travel surveys: the Federal Highway Administration-sponsored Nationwide 

Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS) and the Bureau of Transportation Statisticssponsored American Travel Survey (ATS). 

The Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey (RTECS) was designed by 

the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Department of Energy (DOE) to 

collect information on the use of energy in residential vehicles in the United States. 

Included are data regarding the number and type of vehicles in the residential sector, the 

characteristics of these vehicles, the per household and per vehicle VMT, the vehicle fuel 

consumption and expenditures, and vehicle fuel efficiencies. The DOE/EIA RTECS was 

discontinued after 1994, thus the NHTS was used in its place. 
6

3. Survivability Analysis 

3.1. Passenger Cars 

The passenger car survival rate2 schedule based on 1977 to 2003 NVPP registrations is 

shown in Table 3. Since the annual NVPP registration data is tabulated as of July 1 and 

model year production ends several months later, the total production for model year N 

will appear in the NVPP data for calendar year N+1. Therefore, the survivability for 

vehicles with age A will be found in NVPP calendar year N+1+A, which is A+1 years 

after model year N. Taking the 1977 model year (MY) vehicles as an example, calendar 

year (CY) 1978 is assumed to have the total production for MY 1977. Thus, CY 1978 

would be the base-line year for MY 1977. In addition, CY 1978 would represent a 

vehicle age of zero years for MY 1977; CY 1979 vehicles would be one year old, and so 

on. Therefore, the original survival rates were adjusted upward by one year to reflect the 

actual survivability computed from the NVPP registration data. 

A piece-wise linear relationship appeared to exist between “LN( –LN(1 – Survival 

Rate))” and “Vehicle Age.” Two linear regressions were performed for cars up to and 

including 10 years old and for cars over 10 years old to produce an accurate estimate for 

survival rate as a function of vehicle age. This yielded the following: 

Estimated Survival Rate = 1 – EXP[ –EXP(A + B × Age)] (regression model) 

where, 

 for Age ≤ 10 for Age > 10 

A = 1.64905 3.38136 

B = -0.12143 -0.28623 

r

2

 = 0.9921 0.9985 

The regression estimates produced a 0.9921 coefficient of determination (r2) for vehicle 

age 10 years old and less, and 0.9985 for vehicles greater than 10 years old. The 

 

2

 Survival rate as used in this report is defined as the ratio of the number of vehicles remaining in the fleet 

at a given year as compared to a base-line year. Continuing with the example from above, as mentioned 

before, the number of MY 1977 vehicles sold in CY 1978 would serve as the base-line year for MY 1977 

vehicles. In other words, CY 1978 would represent year zero (a base-line year) for MY 1977 vehicles, and 

the survival rate of MY 1977 vehicles in CY 1978 would be 1.0 (the number of MY 1977 vehicles in the 

fleet divided by to the number of MY 1977 vehicles sold is equal to one). In the following year, CY 1979, 

MY 1977 vehicles would be one year old. We would expect that the number of MY 1977 vehicles to have 

diminished due to reasons such as accidents, thefts, etc. and thus the survival rate would be less then 1.0; 

for CY 1980, the survival rate would be less then that found in CY 1979, and so on. 

A table of the survival rates as a function of the vehicle’s age (rather than as a function of its model year or 

the calendar year) was generated so that vehicles of differing model years, but the same vehicle age, could 

be matched-up to arrive at a five-year average survival rate for a particular vehicle age (e.g., three year-old 

vehicles are averaged together but maybe comprised of vehicles from model years 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 

and 1999). 
7

estimated survival rates were computed for vehicle ages 1 to 25 years old using the above 

regression model and appropriate regression coefficients, A and B. 

The current passenger car estimated survivability schedule (1975 to 1993 NVPP data) is 

presented with the updated estimated survivability (1977 to 2002 NVPP data) in Figure 1. 

The current survivability is nearly equal to the updated survivability for newer cars up to 

five years old. For middle-aged to older cars between 6 and 20 years old, the updated 

survivability schedule indicates that newer cars are lasting longer as compared to the 

previous survivability schedule. 
8

Table 3 

Survivability of Passenger Cars by Vehicle Age 

from 1977 to 2002 NVPP Registration Data 

Vehicle Age Adjusted 

Survival Rate LN(1-SR) LN(-LN(1-SR)) Estimated Survival Rate 

1 0.9913 -4.7480 1.5577 0.9900 

2 0.9809 -3.9571 1.3755 0.9831 

3 0.9694 -3.4875 1.2492 0.9731 

4 0.9555 -3.1130 1.1356 0.9593 

5 0.9423 -2.8525 1.0482 0.9413 

6 0.9227 -2.5603 0.9401 0.9188 

7 0.9008 -2.3105 0.8374 0.8918 

8 0.8703 -2.0426 0.7142 0.8604 

9 0.8288 -1.7647 0.5680 0.8252 

10 0.7703 -1.4708 0.3858 0.7866 

11 0.6958 -1.1902 0.1741 0.7170 

12 0.6107 -0.9435 -0.0581 0.6125 

13 0.5187 -0.7312 -0.3130 0.5094 

14 0.4244 -0.5524 -0.5935 0.4142 

15 0.3425 -0.4193 -0.8691 0.3308 

16 0.2653 -0.3083 -1.1766 0.2604 

17 0.2000 -0.2231 -1.5000 0.2028 

18 0.1500 -0.1626 -1.8167 0.1565 

19 0.1185 -0.1262 -2.0703 0.1200 

20 0.0928 -0.0974 -2.3288 0.0916 

21 0.0696 

22 0.0527 

23 0.0399 

24 0.0301 

25 0.0227 
9

Figure 1

Passenger Car Survivability

by Vehicle Age

0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.8000.9001.000

0 5 10 15 20 

Vehicle Age

Survivability

1975-1993 NVPP (estimate) 1977-2002 NVPP (estimate) 1977-2002 NVPP (
10

3.2 Light Trucks 

The light truck survivability computed from NVPP registrations is presented in Table 4. 

As was done with passenger cars, two linear regressions of “LN(–LN(1–Actual Survival 

Rate))” with the vehicle age adjusted were produced for light trucks up to and including 

12 years of age and for light trucks greater than 12 years old. The cut-off point between 

the two linear regressions was increased by two years, relative to the previous study, for 

light trucks to produce a better fit and “smoother” curve. 

Estimated Survival Rate = 1 – EXP[ –EXP(A + B × Age)] (regression model) 

 for Age ≤ 12 for Age > 12 

A = 1.42048 1.64815 

B = -0.12470 -0.14373 

r

2

 = 0.97774 0.99662 

A comparison of the current light truck survivability schedule with the updated survival 

rate schedule is presented in Figure 2. Unlike passenger cars, it is readily apparent that, 

based on the updated survivability schedule, younger light trucks are not lasting as long 

as younger light trucks from the current schedule. The most likely explanation is that 

there is an increase in usage of light trucks as passenger vehicles, thus raising the 

exposure of light trucks to crashes and rollovers. This trend lasts approximately until 20 

years of age, achieving a maximum difference of about 0.1445 at 11 years of age. 

Beyond 20 years of age, the survivability rates of both schedules begin to converge. 

It is interesting to compare the updated passenger car survival rates with updated light 

truck survival rates. A higher percentage of passenger cars are surviving longer early in 

their lives relative to light trucks of comparable vintage (up to about age 12). 

(Conversely, the 1995 VMT-survivability schedule illustrates the opposite trend, namely, 

light trucks are surviving longer early in their lives when compared to passenger cars.) 
11

Table 4 

Survivability of Light Trucks by Vehicle Age 

from 1977 to 2002 NVPP Registration Data 

Vehicle Age Adjusted 

Survival Rate LN(1-SR) LN(-LN(1-SR)) Estimated Survival Rate 

1 0.9854 -4.2247 1.4409 0.9741 

2 0.9598 -3.2141 1.1675 0.9603 

3 0.9318 -2.6857 0.9879 0.9420 

4 0.9043 -2.3466 0.8530 0.9190 

5 0.8704 -2.0431 0.7145 0.8913 

6 0.8387 -1.8247 0.6014 0.8590 

7 0.8114 -1.6683 0.5118 0.8226 

8 0.7858 -1.5408 0.4323 0.7827 

9 0.7533 -1.3998 0.3363 0.7401 

10 0.7149 -1.2549 0.2270 0.6956 

11 0.6651 -1.0938 0.0896 0.6501 

12 0.6163 -0.9580 -0.0429 0.6040 

13 0.5605 -0.8221 -0.1959 0.5517 

14 0.5037 -0.7005 -0.3560 0.5009 

15 0.4460 -0.5905 -0.5268 0.4522 

16 0.4005 -0.5117 -0.6699 0.4062 

17 0.3597 -0.4458 -0.8078 0.3633 

18 0.3186 -0.3836 -0.9580 0.3236 

19 0.2884 -0.3403 -1.0781 0.2873 

20 0.2613 -0.3029 -1.1945 0.2542 

21 0.2244 

22 0.1975 

23 0.1735 

24 0.1522 

25 0.1332 

26 0.1165 

27 0.1017 

28 0.0887 

29 0.0773 

30 0.0673 

31 0.0586 

32 0.0509 

33 0.0443 

34 0.0385 

35 0.0334 

36 0.0290 
12

Figure 2

Light Truck Survivability

by Vehicle Age

0.0000.1000.2000.3000.4000.5000.6000.7000.8000.9001.000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 

Vehicle Age (years)

Survivability

1975-1993 NVPP (estimate) 1977-2002 NVPP (estimate) 1977-2002 NVPP (
13

4. VMT Analysis 

The annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as a function of vehicle age for passenger cars 

up to 25 years old and light trucks up to 30 years old with their respective weighting 

factor3

 from the 2001 NHTS is shown in Table 5 and Table 6, respectively. Prior to the 

1995 NPTS, FHWA collected VMT data by asking consumers to estimate the number of 

miles they drive in a given year. Starting with the 1995 NPTS, FHWA changed their 

methodology and collected two odometer readings over a two-month period and then 

annualized the difference to arrive at an annual VMT. The data was collected over a 14-

month period, starting in March 2001 and ending in May 2002. Since model year 2002 

vehicles begin to appear in September 2001, and were already about eight months old by 

the end of the survey, it was assumed that 2002 vehicles were one year old in the VMT 

analysis, MY 2001 vehicles are two years old, and so on. 

A brief overview of the methodology of how the final data set that was used is discussed 

herein. Focusing on the variable "VEHTYPE", for the passenger car VMT analysis, all 

records pertaining to automobile vehicle types were included whereas those relating to 

any other vehicle types were eliminated. Conversely, for the light truck VMT analysis, 

records dealing with passenger cars were eliminated. Also, all records pertaining to 

"Other", "Motorcycle", "Refused", and "Don't Know" were also removed. 

Next, we looked at the variable "VEHYEAR." Since we could not calculate a vehicle 

without its model year, we eliminated all records pertaining to "Refused", "Don't Know", 

and "Not Ascertained"; in other words, those that did not respond were not included. 

Lastly, we then turned to the variable "BESTMILE." All records pertaining to 

"Appropriate Skip", "Refused", "Don't Know", and "Not Ascertained" were eliminated. 

Doing this deleted all records for which “VEHTYPE” is "RV" or "Other Truck" (i.e., all 

BESTMILES were blank for those types at this point). 

In addition, when the variable “BESTMILE”4 was equal to zero, the record was flagged 

and the mileage was confirmed with another mileage variable, “ANNMILE.” If 

“ANNMILE” was not zero, then the value of ANNMILE was taken to be the annual 

mileage. However, if “ANNMILE” was also zero, then it was assumed that the vehicle 

did, indeed, travel zero miles in a given year and the record was not included in the study. 

 

3

 The weighting factors were derived based on various factors such the time of year sampled, geographic 

location, household size, and so on. More information can be found in Chapter 5 and Chapter 7, Section D 

of the 2001 NHTS User’s Guide, which can be found at http://nhts.ornl.gov/2001/usersguide/index.shtml. 

4

 The variable “BESTMILE” is an attempt to choose the best estimate of the annual mileage for a vehicle. 

This best guess is derived from two sources: an annualized mileage based on two odometer readings that 

are approximately two months apart (recorded in the variable “ANNUALIZED”); the other figure is based 

on a driver’s reported estimate of how many miles were driven in a given year (variable “ANNMILES”). 
14

4.1. Passenger Cars 

After inspection of the data, a linear relationship between VMT and vehicle age was 

postulated. In addition, whereas the current schedule assumed an exponential 

relationship between VMT and vehicle age, a cubic relationship between age and mileage 

was postulated and found to have a very good fit. Utilizing the statistical software 

package, STATATM v8.2, a weighted regression analysis was performed, and resulted in 

the following: 

Estimated VMT = A × (Age)3

 + B × (Age)2 + C × (Age) + D 

A B C D r2

Cubic 

Polynomial 

Model 0.3672131 -13.21949 -232.8491 14476.36 0.9689 

A comparison of the current and updated VMT schedules as well as the actual VMT data 

from the 2001 NHTS survey as a function of vehicle age is presented in Table 5 and 

Figure 3 for passenger vehicles. 

Each record has an associated weighting factor accompanying it so that users of the 

NHTS data are able to, if need be, bring up the individual records to a representative 

level. The column “Sum of Weights” is the arithmetic sum of all the weighting factors 

for a particular age of a vehicle. 
15

Table 5

VMT Schedule for Passenger Cars from 2001 FHWA NHTS 

Vehicle Age 

(years) 

Actual VMT 

(miles) Sum of Weights Estimated VMT Cubic Model 

1 14,417 5,813,974 14,231 

2 13,803 8,439,630 13,961 

3 13,692 7,801,493 13,669 

4 13,415 7,636,047 13,357 

5 13,183 7,816,479 13,028 

6 12,301 6,835,019 12,683 

7 12,253 7,999,905 12,325 

8 11,709 7,009,223 11,956 

9 11,893 6,529,853 11,578 

10 11,855 6,021,879 11,193 

11 10,620 5,913,173 10,804 

12 9,986 5,046,971 10,413 

13 10,248 5,213,460 10,022 

14 9,515 3,615,932 9,633 

15 9,168 3,262,131 9,249 

16 8,636 2,659,611 8,871 

17 8,941 2,120,955 8,502 

18 7,267 1,597,538 8,144 

19 8,890 919,359 7,799 

20 8,759 536,793 7,469 

21 6,878 477,866 7,157 

22 7,242 498,306 6,866 

23 6,350 545,822 6,596 

24 5,745 441,636 6,350 

25 4,130 313,988 6,131 
16

Figure 3

Estimated Passenger Car VMT

by Vehicle Age

0

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000

0 5 10 15 20 

Vehicle Age (years)

VMT (miles)

Estimated VMT (1991 DOE/EIA RTECS) Estimated VMT (2001 NHTS) Actual VMT 
17

4.2. Light Trucks 

Similar to passenger cars, a cubic model was hypothesized and a linear regression was 

performed based on the model. 

Estimated VMT = A × (Age)3

 + B × (Age)2 + C × (Age) + D 

A B C D r2

Cubic 

Polynomial 

Model 0.6806403 -22.844801 -238.5518 16345.32 0.9634 

Unlike the passenger car where the linear regression curve declines as the vehicles age 

increases up to its lifespan of 25 years, for light trucks, we reach an inflection point5

within the lifespan of the truck at an approximate vehicle age of 27 years. In other 

words, after year 27, the VMT begins to increase rather than steadily decrease. To 

remedy this problem, we take the lowest estimated VMT that the truck will travel and use 

that as the annual mileage for the remaining lifespan of the truck. Thus, the lowest 

mileage that we estimate the truck will travel occurs in year 27 with a value of 6,648 

miles, and is the value we use up to remainder of the lifetime of the truck (36 years). 

Age ≤ 27 

Estimated VMT = A × (Age)3 + B × (Age)2 + C × (Age) + D 

A B C D r2

0.6806403 -22.84481 -238.5518 16345.32 0.9634 

27 < Age ≤ 36 

Cubic 

Polynomial 

Model 

Estimated VMT = 6,648 

The results are presented below in Table 6, and a comparison of the current and updated 

VMT as well as the actual VMT are available in Figure 4. In Table 6, The “Unadjusted” 

sub-column under the main column “Estimated VMT Cubic Model” lists the values of 

the annual mileage based on the cubic regression model from above. As mentioned 

before and evidenced in the table, at year 27 the VMT reaches a minimum and then 

begins to increase after that; the “Adjusted” sub-column corrects this by taking the lowest 

VMT reached (6,648 miles) and uses that value for the remainder of the lifetime of the 

light truck. 

Judging from Figure 4 and comparing the “Actual VMT” with the estimated “Adjusted” 

VMT after year 27, this assumption seems to track well with the real-world data. To be 

certain, we performed a weighted average of the “Actual VMT” data from a vehicle age 

of 27 to 32, and arrive at a value of about 7,172 miles, which is not too far from our 

assumption of 6,648 miles. In addition, the VMT weighted by the survivability rate is of 

more relevance than the “unweighted” VMT, and since the survivability rates are fairly 

low after year 27, those weighted miles beyond year 27 contribute very little to the 

lifetime miles traveled. In fact, because the mileage is taken to be a constant 6,648 miles 

 

5

 An inflection point is a point on a curve at which the sign of the curvature (i.e., the concavity) changes. 

In our case, the concavity changes from down (or negative) to up (or positive) at an approximate vehicle 

age of 27 years. 
18

over time rather than decreasing, the weighted VMT (by survivability rate) and the 

lifetime VMT for light trucks are potentially over-estimated. 
19

Table 6 

VMT Schedule for Light Trucks from 2001 FHWA NHTS 

Estimated VMT Cubic Model 

Vehicle Age Actual VMT Sum of Weights Unadjusted Adjusted 

1 15,806 5,612,464 16,085 16,085 

2 15,683 7,432,237 15,782 15,782 

3 15,859 6,745,541 15,442 15,442 

4 15,302 6,062,588 15,069 15,069 

5 14,762 5,315,874 14,667 14,667 

6 13,836 4,720,786 14,239 14,239 

7 13,542 4,611,752 13,790 13,790 

8 13,615 4,519,253 13,323 13,323 

9 12,875 3,623,754 12,844 12,844 

10 12,203 3,167,817 12,356 12,356 

11 11,501 2,723,295 11,863 11,863 

12 10,815 2,694,645 11,369 11,369 

13 11,391 2,596,898 10,879 10,879 

14 10,843 2,228,663 10,396 10,396 

15 10,378 1,849,371 9,924 9,924 

16 9,259 1,907,149 9,468 9,468 

17 8,358 1,495,622 9,032 9,032 

18 9,371 1,149,093 8,619 8,619 

19 7,352 738,596 8,234 8,234 

20 8,363 448,094 7,881 7,881 

21 6,999 353,464 7,565 7,565 

22 7,327 329,249 7,288 7,288 

23 6,969 609,914 7,055 7,055 

24 6,220 500,876 6,871 6,871 

25 6,312 357,861 6,739 6,739 

26 6,745 272,612 6,663 6,663 

27 9,515 224,307 6,648 6,648 

28 6,635 152,987 6,697 6,648 

29 12,108 196,936 6,815 6,648 

30 5,067 278,648 7,006 6,648 

31 4,577 144,194 7,273 6,648 

32 6,923 124,329 7,622 6,648 

33 8,055 6,648 

34 8,578 6,648 

35 9,194 6,648 

36 9,907 6,648 
20

Figure 4

 Estimated Light Truck VMT

by Vehicle Age

0

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 

Vehicle Age (years)

VMT (miles)

Estimated VMT (1991 DOE/EIA RTECS) Estimated VMT (2001 NHTS) Actual VMT 
21

5. Lifetime Mileage 

5.1. Passenger Cars 

The annual estimated weighted VMT and expected lifetime passenger car VMT (based 

on the updated 1977 to 2002 NVPP and 2001 NHTS data) is shown in Table 7. The 

“expected passenger car lifetime VMT” is calculated by summing the “estimated 

weighted VMT” over the number of years the vehicle is expected to be in service (25 

years in the case of passenger cars), where the weighted VMT is simply the product of 

the “estimated survivability” and the “estimated VMT.” 

Figure 5 compares the current weighted VMT schedule with the updated weighted VMT 

schedule. 
22

Table 7 

Summary of Updated Results and Estimated Lifetime Passenger Car VMT 

Estimated 

Survivability Estimated VMT Vehicle Age 

(1977 to 2002 NVPP) (2001 NHTS) 

Weighted Yearly 

Travel Miles 

1 0.9900 14,231 14,089 

2 0.9831 13,961 13,725 

3 0.9731 13,669 13,300 

4 0.9593 13,357 12,813 

5 0.9413 13,028 12,262 

6 0.9188 12,683 11,652 

7 0.8918 12,325 10,991 

8 0.8604 11,956 10,287 

9 0.8252 11,578 9,554 

10 0.7866 11,193 8,804 

11 0.7170 10,804 7,746 

12 0.6125 10,413 6,378 

13 0.5094 10,022 5,105 

14 0.4142 9,633 3,990 

15 0.3308 9,249 3,060 

16 0.2604 8,871 2,310 

17 0.2028 8,502 1,724 

18 0.1565 8,144 1,275 

19 0.1200 7,799 936 

20 0.0916 7,469 684 

21 0.0696 7,157 498 

22 0.0527 6,866 362 

23 0.0399 6,596 263 

24 0.0301 6,350 191 

25 0.0227 6,131 139 

 

Estimated Passenger Car Lifetime VMT 152,137 
23

Figure 5 

Passenger Car Weighted VMT

by Vehicle Age

0

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000

0 5 10 15 20 

Vehicle Age (years)

Weighted VMT (miles)

Current Weighted VMT Updated Weighted VMT
24

5.2. Light Trucks 

The annual estimated weighted VMT and expected lifetime passenger car VMT (based 

on the updated 1977 to 2002 NVPP and 2001 NHTS data) is shown in Table 8. The 

“expected light truck lifetime VMT” is calculated by summing the “estimated weighted 

VMT” over the number of years the vehicle is expected to be in service (36 years in the 

case of light trucks), where the weighted VMT is simply the product of the “estimated 

survivability” and the “estimated VMT.” 

Figure 6 compares the current weighted VMT schedule with the updated weighted VMT 

schedule. 
25

Table 8 

Summary of Updated Results and Estimated Lifetime Light Truck VMT 

Estimated 

Survivability Estimated VMT Vehicle Age 

(1977 to 2002 NVPP) (2001 NHTS) 

Weighted Yearly 

Travel Miles 

1 0.9741 16,085 15,668 

2 0.9603 15,782 15,155 

3 0.9420 15,442 14,547 

4 0.9190 15,069 13,849 

5 0.8913 14,667 13,072 

6 0.8590 14,239 12,230 

7 0.8226 13,790 11,343 

8 0.7827 13,323 10,428 

9 0.7401 12,844 9,506 

10 0.6956 12,356 8,595 

11 0.6501 11,863 7,712 

12 0.6040 11,369 6,867 

13 0.5517 10,879 6,002 

14 0.5009 10,396 5,207 

15 0.4522 9,924 4,488 

16 0.4062 9,468 3,846 

17 0.3633 9,032 3,281 

18 0.3236 8,619 2,790 

19 0.2873 8,234 2,366 

20 0.2542 7,881 2,004 

21 0.2244 7,565 1,697 

22 0.1975 7,288 1,440 

23 0.1735 7,055 1,224 

24 0.1522 6,871 1,046 

25 0.1332 6,739 898 

26 0.1165 6,663 776 

27 0.1017 6,648 676 

28 0.0887 6,648 590 

29 0.0773 6,648 514 

30 0.0673 6,648 448 

31 0.0586 6,648 389 

32 0.0509 6,648 339 

33 0.0443 6,648 294 

34 0.0385 6,648 256 

35 0.0334 6,648 222 

36 0.0290 6,648 193 

 

Estimated Lifetime Light Truck VMT 179,954 
26

Figure 6

Light Truck Weighted VMT

by Vehicle Age

0

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 

Vehicle Age (years)

Weighted VMT (miles)

Current Weighted VMT Updated Weighted VMT
27

6. Discount Factors 

Frequently, the agency discounts future safety benefits or fuel economy impacts back to 

present value to compare them to costs that incur when the vehicle is purchased. The 

present discount factors used are based on half-year discount rates with the following 

formula: 

Present Discount Factor = 2

1

(1 )

1

− +N i Equation 1 

where, N = vehicle age (years) 

i = discount rate (e.g., 3 percent, 7 percent, 10 percent). 

Each present discount (PD) factor for a given vehicle age and discount rate is multiplied 

by their respective “Percent Total VMT” to arrive at the “Weighted Present Discount 

(PD) Factors” in the last columns of Tables 9 and 10. For example in Table 9a, 

passenger cars with a vehicle age of 10 years and a discount rate of 3 percent results in a 

weighted present discount factor of 0.0437 (results from multiplying the percent total 

VMT of 5.79 percent by the present discount value factor of 0.7552). 

Summing the entire range of “Annual Weighted Present Discount Factor” for a particular 

vehicle and discount rate gives us the “Lifetime Weighted Present Value Discount 

Factor” for that particular vehicle type and at that discount rate; for passenger cars, 

0.8304 (at 3 percent), 0.6700 (7 percent), and 0.5824 (10 percent); for light trucks, 0.8022 

(at 3 percent), 0.6303 (7 percent), and 0.5419 (10 percent). 
28

Table 9a

Updated Passenger Car Weighted Present Value Discount Factor (at 3 Percent) 

Vehicle 

Age 

(years) 

VMT Survival 

Probability

Weighted 

VMT 

Percent of 

Total VMT

Present 

Discount 

Factors 

Annual 

Weighted PD 

Factors at 

3% 

1 14,231 0.9900 14,089 9.26% 0.9853 0.0912 

2 13,961 0.9831 13,725 9.02% 0.9566 0.0863 

3 13,669 0.9731 13,300 8.74% 0.9288 0.0812 

4 13,357 0.9593 12,813 8.42% 0.9017 0.0759 

5 13,028 0.9413 12,262 8.06% 0.8755 0.0706 

6 12,683 0.9188 11,652 7.66% 0.8500 0.0651 

7 12,325 0.8918 10,991 7.22% 0.8252 0.0596 

8 11,956 0.8604 10,287 6.76% 0.8012 0.0542 

9 11,578 0.8252 9,554 6.28% 0.7778 0.0488 

10 11,193 0.7866 8,804 5.79% 0.7552 0.0437 

11 10,804 0.7170 7,746 5.09% 0.7332 0.0373 

12 10,413 0.6125 6,378 4.19% 0.7118 0.0298 

13 10,022 0.5094 5,105 3.36% 0.6911 0.0232 

14 9,633 0.4142 3,990 2.62% 0.6710 0.0176 

15 9,249 0.3308 3,060 2.01% 0.6514 0.0131 

16 8,871 0.2604 2,310 1.52% 0.6324 0.0096 

17 8,502 0.2028 1,724 1.13% 0.6140 0.0070 

18 8,144 0.1565 1,275 0.84% 0.5961 0.0050 

19 7,799 0.1200 936 0.62% 0.5788 0.0036 

20 7,469 0.0916 684 0.45% 0.5619 0.0025 

21 7,157 0.0696 498 0.33% 0.5456 0.0018 

22 6,866 0.0527 362 0.24% 0.5297 0.0013 

23 6,596 0.0399 263 0.17% 0.5142 0.0009 

24 6,350 0.0301 191 0.13% 0.4993 0.0006 

25 6,131 0.0227 139 0.09% 0.4847 0.0004 

Lifetime Weighted Present Value Discount Factor 0.8304 
29

Table 9b

Updated Passenger Car Weighted Present Value Discount Factor (at 7 Percent) 

Vehicle 

Age 

(years) 

VMT Survival 

Probability

Weighted 

VMT 

Percent of 

Total VMT

Present 

Discount 

Factors 

Annual 

Weighted PD 

Factors at 

7% 

1 14,231 0.9900 14,089 9.26% 0.9667 0.0895 

2 13,961 0.9831 13,725 9.02% 0.9035 0.0815 

3 13,669 0.9731 13,300 8.74% 0.8444 0.0738 

4 13,357 0.9593 12,813 8.42% 0.7891 0.0665 

5 13,028 0.9413 12,262 8.06% 0.7375 0.0594 

6 12,683 0.9188 11,652 7.66% 0.6893 0.0528 

7 12,325 0.8918 10,991 7.22% 0.6442 0.0465 

8 11,956 0.8604 10,287 6.76% 0.6020 0.0407 

9 11,578 0.8252 9,554 6.28% 0.5626 0.0353 

10 11,193 0.7866 8,804 5.79% 0.5258 0.0304 

11 10,804 0.7170 7,746 5.09% 0.4914 0.0250 

12 10,413 0.6125 6,378 4.19% 0.4593 0.0193 

13 10,022 0.5094 5,105 3.36% 0.4292 0.0144 

14 9,633 0.4142 3,990 2.62% 0.4012 0.0105 

15 9,249 0.3308 3,060 2.01% 0.3749 0.0075 

16 8,871 0.2604 2,310 1.52% 0.3504 0.0053 

17 8,502 0.2028 1,724 1.13% 0.3275 0.0037 

18 8,144 0.1565 1,275 0.84% 0.3060 0.0026 

19 7,799 0.1200 936 0.62% 0.2860 0.0018 

20 7,469 0.0916 684 0.45% 0.2673 0.0012 

21 7,157 0.0696 498 0.33% 0.2498 0.0008 

22 6,866 0.0527 362 0.24% 0.2335 0.0006 

23 6,596 0.0399 263 0.17% 0.2182 0.0004 

24 6,350 0.0301 191 0.13% 0.2039 0.0003 

25 6,131 0.0227 139 0.09% 0.1906 0.0002 

Lifetime Weighted Present Value Discount Factor 0.6700 
30

Table 9c

Updated Passenger Car Weighted Present Value Discount Factor (at 10 Percent) 

Vehicle 

Age 

(years) 

VMT Survival 

Probability

Weighted 

VMT 

Percent of 

Total VMT

Present 

Discount 

Factors 

Annual 

Weighted PD 

Factors at 

10% 

1 14,231 0.9900 14,089 9.26% 0.9535 0.0883 

2 13,961 0.9831 13,725 9.02% 0.8668 0.0782 

3 13,669 0.9731 13,300 8.74% 0.7880 0.0689 

4 13,357 0.9593 12,813 8.42% 0.7164 0.0603 

5 13,028 0.9413 12,262 8.06% 0.6512 0.0525 

6 12,683 0.9188 11,652 7.66% 0.5920 0.0453 

7 12,325 0.8918 10,991 7.22% 0.5382 0.0389 

8 11,956 0.8604 10,287 6.76% 0.4893 0.0331 

9 11,578 0.8252 9,554 6.28% 0.4448 0.0279 

10 11,193 0.7866 8,804 5.79% 0.4044 0.0234 

11 10,804 0.7170 7,746 5.09% 0.3676 0.0187 

12 10,413 0.6125 6,378 4.19% 0.3342 0.0140 

13 10,022 0.5094 5,105 3.36% 0.3038 0.0102 

14 9,633 0.4142 3,990 2.62% 0.2762 0.0072 

15 9,249 0.3308 3,060 2.01% 0.2511 0.0050 

16 8,871 0.2604 2,310 1.52% 0.2283 0.0035 

17 8,502 0.2028 1,724 1.13% 0.2075 0.0024 

18 8,144 0.1565 1,275 0.84% 0.1886 0.0016 

19 7,799 0.1200 936 0.62% 0.1715 0.0011 

20 7,469 0.0916 684 0.45% 0.1559 0.0007 

21 7,157 0.0696 498 0.33% 0.1417 0.0005 

22 6,866 0.0527 362 0.24% 0.1288 0.0003 

23 6,596 0.0399 263 0.17% 0.1171 0.0002 

24 6,350 0.0301 191 0.13% 0.1065 0.0001 

25 6,131 0.0227 139 0.09% 0.0968 0.0001 

Lifetime Weighted Present Value Discount Factor 0.5824 
31

Table 10a 

Updated Light Truck Weighted Present Value Discount Factor (at 3 Percent) 

Vehicle 

Age 

(years) 

VMT Survival 

Probability

Weighted 

VMT 

Percent of 

Total VMT

Present 

Discount 

Factors 

Annual 

Weighted PD 

Factors at 

3% 

1 16,085 0.9741 15,668 8.71% 0.9853 0.0858 

2 15,782 0.9603 15,155 8.42% 0.9566 0.0806 

3 15,442 0.9420 14,547 8.08% 0.9288 0.0751 

4 15,069 0.9190 13,849 7.70% 0.9017 0.0694 

5 14,667 0.8913 13,072 7.26% 0.8755 0.0636 

6 14,239 0.8590 12,230 6.80% 0.8500 0.0578 

7 13,790 0.8226 11,343 6.30% 0.8252 0.0520 

8 13,323 0.7827 10,428 5.79% 0.8012 0.0464 

9 12,844 0.7401 9,506 5.28% 0.7778 0.0411 

10 12,356 0.6956 8,595 4.78% 0.7552 0.0361 

11 11,863 0.6501 7,712 4.29% 0.7332 0.0314 

12 11,369 0.6040 6,867 3.82% 0.7118 0.0272 

13 10,879 0.5517 6,002 3.34% 0.6911 0.0230 

14 10,396 0.5009 5,207 2.89% 0.6710 0.0194 

15 9,924 0.4522 4,488 2.49% 0.6514 0.0162 

16 9,468 0.4062 3,846 2.14% 0.6324 0.0135 

17 9,032 0.3633 3,281 1.82% 0.6140 0.0112 

18 8,619 0.3236 2,790 1.55% 0.5961 0.0092 

19 8,234 0.2873 2,366 1.31% 0.5788 0.0076 

20 7,881 0.2542 2,004 1.11% 0.5619 0.0063 

21 7,565 0.2244 1,697 0.94% 0.5456 0.0051 

22 7,288 0.1975 1,440 0.80% 0.5297 0.0042 

23 7,055 0.1735 1,224 0.68% 0.5142 0.0035 

24 6,871 0.1522 1,046 0.58% 0.4993 0.0029 

25 6,739 0.1332 898 0.50% 0.4847 0.0024 

26 6,663 0.1165 776 0.43% 0.4706 0.0020 

27 6,648 0.1017 676 0.38% 0.4569 0.0017 

28 6,648 0.0887 590 0.33% 0.4436 0.0015 

29 6,648 0.0773 514 0.29% 0.4307 0.0012 

30 6,648 0.0673 448 0.25% 0.4181 0.0010 

31 6,648 0.0586 389 0.22% 0.4059 0.0009 

32 6,648 0.0509 339 0.19% 0.3941 0.0007 

33 6,648 0.0443 294 0.16% 0.3826 0.0006 

34 6,648 0.0385 256 0.14% 0.3715 0.0005 

35 6,648 0.0334 222 0.12% 0.3607 0.0004 

36 6,648 0.0290 193 0.11% 0.3502 0.0004 

Lifetime Weighted Present Value Discount Factor 0.8022 
32

Table 10b 

Updated Light Truck Weighted Present Value Discount Factor (at 7 Percent) 

Vehicle 

Age 

(years) 

VMT Survival 

Probability

Weighted 

VMT 

Percent of 

Total VMT

Present 

Discount 

Factors 

Annual 

Weighted PD 

Factors at 

7% 

1 16,085 0.9741 15,668 8.71% 0.9667 0.0842 

2 15,782 0.9603 15,155 8.42% 0.9035 0.0761 

3 15,442 0.9420 14,547 8.08% 0.8444 0.0683 

4 15,069 0.9190 13,849 7.70% 0.7891 0.0607 

5 14,667 0.8913 13,072 7.26% 0.7375 0.0536 

6 14,239 0.8590 12,230 6.80% 0.6893 0.0468 

7 13,790 0.8226 11,343 6.30% 0.6442 0.0406 

8 13,323 0.7827 10,428 5.79% 0.6020 0.0349 

9 12,844 0.7401 9,506 5.28% 0.5626 0.0297 

10 12,356 0.6956 8,595 4.78% 0.5258 0.0251 

11 11,863 0.6501 7,712 4.29% 0.4914 0.0211 

12 11,369 0.6040 6,867 3.82% 0.4593 0.0175 

13 10,879 0.5517 6,002 3.34% 0.4292 0.0143 

14 10,396 0.5009 5,207 2.89% 0.4012 0.0116 

15 9,924 0.4522 4,488 2.49% 0.3749 0.0093 

16 9,468 0.4062 3,846 2.14% 0.3504 0.0075 

17 9,032 0.3633 3,281 1.82% 0.3275 0.0060 

18 8,619 0.3236 2,790 1.55% 0.3060 0.0047 

19 8,234 0.2873 2,366 1.31% 0.2860 0.0038 

20 7,881 0.2542 2,004 1.11% 0.2673 0.0030 

21 7,565 0.2244 1,697 0.94% 0.2498 0.0024 

22 7,288 0.1975 1,440 0.80% 0.2335 0.0019 

23 7,055 0.1735 1,224 0.68% 0.2182 0.0015 

24 6,871 0.1522 1,046 0.58% 0.2039 0.0012 

25 6,739 0.1332 898 0.50% 0.1906 0.0010 

26 6,663 0.1165 776 0.43% 0.1781 0.0008 

27 6,648 0.1017 676 0.38% 0.1665 0.0006 

28 6,648 0.0887 590 0.33% 0.1556 0.0005 

29 6,648 0.0773 514 0.29% 0.1454 0.0004 

30 6,648 0.0673 448 0.25% 0.1359 0.0003 

31 6,648 0.0586 389 0.22% 0.1270 0.0003 

32 6,648 0.0509 339 0.19% 0.1187 0.0002 

33 6,648 0.0443 294 0.16% 0.1109 0.0002 

34 6,648 0.0385 256 0.14% 0.1037 0.0001 

35 6,648 0.0334 222 0.12% 0.0969 0.0001 

36 6,648 0.0290 193 0.11% 0.0905 0.0001 

Lifetime Weighted Present Value Discount Factor 0.6303 
33

Table 10c 

Updated Light Truck Weighted Present Value Discount Factor (at 10 Percent) 

Vehicle 

Age 

(years) 

VMT Survival 

Probability

Weighted 

VMT 

Percent of 

Total VMT

Present 

Discount 

Factors 

Annual 

Weighted PD 

Factors at 

10% 

1 16,085 0.9741 15,668 8.71% 0.9535 0.0830 

2 15,782 0.9603 15,155 8.42% 0.8668 0.0730 

3 15,442 0.9420 14,547 8.08% 0.7880 0.0637 

4 15,069 0.9190 13,849 7.70% 0.7164 0.0551 

5 14,667 0.8913 13,072 7.26% 0.6512 0.0473 

6 14,239 0.8590 12,230 6.80% 0.5920 0.0402 

7 13,790 0.8226 11,343 6.30% 0.5382 0.0339 

8 13,323 0.7827 10,428 5.79% 0.4893 0.0284 

9 12,844 0.7401 9,506 5.28% 0.4448 0.0235 

10 12,356 0.6956 8,595 4.78% 0.4044 0.0193 

11 11,863 0.6501 7,712 4.29% 0.3676 0.0158 

12 11,369 0.6040 6,867 3.82% 0.3342 0.0128 

13 10,879 0.5517 6,002 3.34% 0.3038 0.0101 

14 10,396 0.5009 5,207 2.89% 0.2762 0.0080 

15 9,924 0.4522 4,488 2.49% 0.2511 0.0063 

16 9,468 0.4062 3,846 2.14% 0.2283 0.0049 

17 9,032 0.3633 3,281 1.82% 0.2075 0.0038 

18 8,619 0.3236 2,790 1.55% 0.1886 0.0029 

19 8,234 0.2873 2,366 1.31% 0.1715 0.0023 

20 7,881 0.2542 2,004 1.11% 0.1559 0.0017 

21 7,565 0.2244 1,697 0.94% 0.1417 0.0013 

22 7,288 0.1975 1,440 0.80% 0.1288 0.0010 

23 7,055 0.1735 1,224 0.68% 0.1171 0.0008 

24 6,871 0.1522 1,046 0.58% 0.1065 0.0006 

25 6,739 0.1332 898 0.50% 0.0968 0.0005 

26 6,663 0.1165 776 0.43% 0.0880 0.0004 

27 6,648 0.1017 676 0.38% 0.0800 0.0003 

28 6,648 0.0887 590 0.33% 0.0727 0.0002 

29 6,648 0.0773 514 0.29% 0.0661 0.0002 

30 6,648 0.0673 448 0.25% 0.0601 0.0001 

31 6,648 0.0586 389 0.22% 0.0546 0.0001 

32 6,648 0.0509 339 0.19% 0.0497 0.0001 

33 6,648 0.0443 294 0.16% 0.0452 0.0001 

34 6,648 0.0385 256 0.14% 0.0411 0.0001 

35 6,648 0.0334 222 0.12% 0.0373 0.0000 

36 6,648 0.0290 193 0.11% 0.0339 0.0000 

Lifetime Weighted Present Value Discount Factor 0.5419 

 
34

7. Appendix 
35

7.1. Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) VMT Schedules 

For a great majority of rulemakings, vehicles are classified as either a passenger car or as 

a light truck with the vehicle miles traveled schedules created to reflect this fact. 

However, an exception to this practice are the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) 

standards, in which the light truck categories are further discriminated into three subcategories based upon the light truck’s body type. These sub-categories are as follows, 

with the specific vehicle types following in a parenthetical expression: 

• Pickups (open-bed trucks of all sizes); 

• SUVs (sport wagons and utility vehicles of all sizes) and 

• Vans (minivans, standard and large passenger vans, and cargo vans). 

Passenger cars remain grouped in their own category and are not further divided, but are 

listed here for the sake of completeness: 

• Passenger cars (coupes, sedans, station wagons, sports cars, and convertibles). 

A least-squares fit of the vehicle miles traveled for each sub-category of light trucks by 

vehicle age is presented below in Table 11 alongside an aggregated VMT6

 for all light 

trucks. Since a separate regression was performed on separate sub-categories, the 

“shape” of the curves will not match that of the aggregated light truck curve, especially at 

the beginnings and ends of the curves. The mileage by year schedules for each subcategory—rather than the aggregated VMT—is used in rulemakings pertaining to fuel 

economy. 

The linear regression model for the aggregated light truck VMT was presented earlier on 

page 17 of this report. 

 

6

 The aggregated VMT schedule under the column heading in Table 11, “All Light Trucks,” is created by 

combing all three sub-categories of light trucks (Pickups, SUVs and Vans) into one single group. This 

aggregated light truck VMT schedule also appears in Table 6 (p. 19), Table 8 (p. 25) and Tables 10a-10c 

(pp. 31-33). 
36

Table 11 

Average Annual Miles Driven by Age for Light-Duty Vehicles 

(estimated values from equations fitted to data from 2002 NHTS) 

Light Trucks Age Passenger Cars All Light Trucks Pickups SUVs Vans 

1 14,231 16,085 16,869 16,270 16,321 

2 13,961 15,782 16,270 15,786 15,951 

3 13,669 15,442 15,681 15,316 15,555 

4 13,357 15,069 15,105 14,859 15,135 

5 13,028 14,667 14,541 14,417 14,693 

6 12,683 14,239 13,990 13,988 14,234 

7 12,325 13,790 13,453 13,571 13,759 

8 11,956 13,323 12,931 13,167 13,271 

9 11,578 12,844 12,424 12,775 12,774 

10 11,193 12,356 11,932 12,395 12,270 

11 10,804 11,863 11,457 12,025 11,763 

12 10,413 11,369 10,999 11,667 11,255 

13 10,022 10,879 10,559 11,320 10,750 

14 9,633 10,396 10,138 10,983 10,249 

15 9,249 9,924 9,736 10,656 9,757 

16 8,871 9,468 9,353 10,338 9,275 

17 8,502 9,032 8,991 10,031 8,808 

18 8,144 8,619 8,650 9,732 8,358 

19 7,799 8,234 8,331 9,442 7,927 

20 7,469 7,881 8,034 9,161 7,519 

21 7,157 7,565 7,761 8,888 7,137 

22 6,866 7,288 7,511 8,623 6,783 

23 6,596 7,055 7,285 8,367 6,461 

24 6,350 6,871 7,085 8,118 6,174 

25 6,131 6,739 6,911 7,876 5,923 

26 6,663 6,762 7,641 5,714 

27 6,648 6,641 7,414 5,547 

28 6,648 6,548 7,193 5,427 

29 6,648 6,483 6,979 5,355 

30+ 6,648 6,448 6,771 5,336 
37

0

2,0004,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 

Passenger Cars All Light Trucks Pickups SUVs Vans

Vehicle Age (years)

Average Annual Miles Driven (miles)

Figure 7

Average Annual Miles Driven by Different Classes of Light Trucks 

by Vehicle Age