Prepared in cooperation with the USDA Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management, and the Oregon Water Resources Department

Floods of November 1996 through January 1997 

in the Umpqua River Basin, Oregon

Background

During November 1996 through 

January 1997, a series of storms caused 

flooding throughout southeastern Oregon, 

northern California, and parts of Nevada. 

In Oregon’s Umpqua River Basin (fig. 1) 

the most significant flooding occurred 

on November 18–19, December 4–9, 

and January 1–2. The combination of 

heavy rains, snowmelt, saturated soils, 

and flooding also resulted in debris flows 

and landslides. Four people were killed by 

a debris flow on November 18, 1996, near 

Rock Creek, a tributary to Hubbard Creek 

near Millwood. Over the 3-month period, 

flooding and land disturbances caused 

over $11 million in damage to public and 

private property within the Umpqua River 

drainage basin (Mikeal Jones, USDA 

Forest Service, Umpqua National Forest, 

Roseburg, Oregon, written commun., 

2004; Lowell Duell, Bureau of Land 

Management (BLM), Roseburg District, 

Roseburg, Oregon, written commun., 

2004; Wayne Stinson, Douglas County, 

Sheriff’s Office, Roseburg, Oregon, 

written commun., 2004). The Umpqua 

National Forest and Oregon State highways within Douglas County incurred 

over $4 million and $3 million in damage, 

respectively. Damage to BLM lands, 

local municipal infrastructure, and private 

property were each over $1 million. 

Figure 1. Locations of selected stream-gaging and meteorological stations in the Umpqua River Basin, Oregon. 

(Stream-gaging-station site numbers refer to table 2.) 

U.S. Department of the Interior 

U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Fact Sheet FS–2004–3134

November 2004
November Floods

Flooding on November 18-19 was 

caused by heavy rains that fell on many 

locations throughout the Umpqua River 

Basin (table 1). The rains resulted from the 

convergence of a broad upper-air weather 

system of moist subtropical air, which 

originated over the tropical Pacific, and a 

cold-air mass over Washington (fig. 2). 

Roseburg received a record 4.35 inches of 

rainfall in a single day, which surpassed 

the previous record of 3.28 inches set in 

1965. Prior to the storm, soil moisture 

and precipitation levels throughout 

the basin were already above average. 

October 1996 precipitation amounts at 

Drain, Roseburg, Riddle, and Toketee 

Falls were 178–215 percent of average. 

Most of the precipitation during the 

period of November 17–19 was rainfall. 

Air temperature and snowpack data 

collected at the King Mountain and Diamond Lake snow telemetry (SNOTEL) 

stations indicated that there was no 

significant snow accumulation. These 

stations, operated by the U.S. Department 

of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service, are located at 4,000 

and 5,200 feet elevation, respectively. 

Because the storm event occurred prior 

to the winter season and there was no 

preexisting snowpack at either of these 

two stations, snowmelt did not provide a 

significant contribution to the flooding.

Although precipitation from the 

November 17–19 storm was broadly 

distributed over the entire Umpqua River 

Basin, flooding in the North Umpqua 

River Basin was more severe than flooding in the South Umpqua River Basin 

(table 2), possibly due to differing antecedent conditions. The recurrence interval 

for the November peak discharges within 

the entire basin ranged from less than 

2 years to more than 50 years. A 50-year 

flood has a magnitude that would be 

expected to occur every 50 years, on 

average. Such a flood has a 2 percent 

chance of being equalled or exceeded 

in any given year. The November flood 

for Boulder Creek near Toketee Falls 

(14316495) had an unusually high magnitude in comparison to the other basins. 

The event had a greater than 50-year 

recurrence and a unit discharge of 372 

cubic feet per second per square mile. 

Table 1: Daily precipitation, in inches, for principal storms from November 1996 

through January 1997 at selected locations, Umpqua River Basin, Oregon. 

Date Drain

1 Source: Oregon Climate Service, Corvallis, Oregon. 

1 Roseburg1 Riddle1

Toketee 

Falls1

King 

Mountain

2 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service, Portland, Oregon. 

2

Diamond 

Lake2

ELEVATION (FEET)

.... 290 420 680 2,060 4,000 5,200

LATITUDE

.... 43 40 00 43 13 00 42 57 00 43 17 00 42 43 00 43 11 00

LONGITUDE

.... 123 19 00 123 22 00 123 21 00 122 27 00 123 12 00 122 08 00

NOVEMBER 1996 FLOODS

11/16/1996 0.21 0.06 0.09 0.2 0 0.2

11/17/1996 0.33 0.13 0.02 0.04 0.5 0.4

11/18/1996 1.59 1.8 0.87 5.11 5.8 7.5

11/19/1996 5.92 4.35 2.3 2.01 2.4 2

DECEMBER 1996 FLOODS

12/3/1996 0.49 0.53 0.31 0.17 0.3 0.5

12/4/1996 0.06 0.03 0.02 1.8 2.2 2.5

12/5/1996 2.22 1.97 1.39 0.89 0.3 0.9

12/6/1996 0.64 0.82 0.88 0.65 0.5 0.9

12/7/1996 0.61 0.23 0.17 1.03 3.3 1.6

12/8/1996 2.3 3.53 2.75 2.19 4.2 1.6

12/9/1996 0.97 1.57 2.02 0.87 1.2 1.2

JANUARY 1997 FLOODS

12/28/1996 0.18 0.03 0.14 0.65 1.3 1

12/29/1996 0.92 0.62 0.81 1.37 2.2 1.2

12/30/1996 1.09 0.18 0.94 1.18 2.8 2

12/31/1996 1.22 0.85 1.34 0.81 3 1.6

1/1/1997 1.14 1.01 1.51 2.4 3.4 2.6

1/2/1997 0.66 0.4 0.73 0.97 1.2 1.3

1/29/1997 0.01 0.02 0 0 0.3 0.2

1/30/1997 0 0 0.02 0.73 0 1.1

1/31/1997 1.63 0.05 0.3 1.33 0.9 1.3

Figure 2. Infrared satellite photograph for November 18, 1996, showing subtropical jet stream 

bringing moisture from the southwest, and a cold air mass over Washington. 

(Photograph courtesy of the Oregon Climate Service, Corvallis, Oregon). 
Table 2: Peak discharge, peak stage, and recurrence intervals for November 1996–January 1997 floods at selected sites, Umpqua River Basin, Oregon. 

[no.number; fig., figure; USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; mi2, square miles; ft3/s, cubic feet per second; flood events in red print are the annual peaks for water year 1997]

 Site 

no. 

(fig. 1)

USGS 

station 

number Station name

Drainage 

area 

(mi2

) Flood frequency period of record

November 1996 Flood

 Site 

no. 

(fig. 1)

December 1996 Floods January 1997 Floods Largest recorded historical flood peak

Date

Peak 

discharge 

(ft3

/s)

Peak 

stage 

(feet)

Recurrence 

interval 

(years) Date

Peak 

discharge 

(ft3

/s)

Peak 

stage 

(feet)

Recurrence 

interval 

(years) Date

Peak 

discharge 

(ft3

/s)

Peak 

stage 

(feet)

Recurrence 

interval 

(years)

100-year 

peak discharge 

(ft3

/s) Date

Magnitude 

(ft3

/s)

1 14308000 South Umpqua River at Tiller 449 1911, 1940–2002

1 Flood events are the annual peaks for water year 1997.

1

11/18/1996 146,000 122.17 1>25 1 12/4/1996 27,500 17.2 <5 1/1/1997 31,700 18.45 <10 58,890 12/22/1964 60,200

2 14308500 Elk Creek near Drew 54.4 1955–1982; 1987–2002 11/18/1996 4,810 8.8 <5 2 12/8/1996 5,000 9.02 >5 11/1/1997 18,550 110.87 1<25 13,310 1/9/1995 9,120

3 14308685 Days Creek above May Creek near Days Creek 13 1985–2002 11/18/1996 1,610 3.79 <25 3 112/8/1996 11,730 13.88 1<25 1/1/1997 691 2.84 <5 3,118 12/8/1996 1,730

4 14308990 Cow Creek above Galesville Reservoir near Azalea 64.7 1986–2002 11/18/1996 3,010 7.81 <5 4 12/8/1996 4,900 10.01 <10 11/1/1997 16,130 111.25 1<25 10,070 1/9/1995 6,980

5 14309000 Cow Creek near Azalea

2 Water years 1986–2002 not used in frequency analysis due to Galesville Reservoir regulation.

2 78 1928–1931; 1933–1985

3 Months with no data did not have flood events.

( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 5 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 1

1/2/1997 12,490 19.69 1<2 10,920 1/15/1974 10,600

6 14309220 Cow Creek below McCollough Creek near Glendale

4 Site is partially affected by Galesville Reservoir regulation. 

4 195.1 1986–2002 11/18/1996 2,160 7.68 <2 6 12/8/1996 7,560 14.56 >10 1

1/1/1997 17,870 114.87 1>10 15,060 1/9/1995 7,970

7 14309500 West Fork Cow Creek near Glendale 86.9 1956–2002 111/18/1996 18,560 113.2 1<5 7 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 15,540 12/22/1964 15,700

8 14310000 Cow Creek near Riddle 456 1955–2002 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 8 112/8/1996 127,400 122.52 1>5 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 52,150 1/15/1974 38,400

9 14311200 Olalla Creek near Tenmile

5 Site is partially affected by Ben Irving Reservoir regulation.

5 61.3 1980–2002 11/18/1996 1,810 5.45 <2 9 1

12/8/1996 16,780 19.24 1<25 1/1/1997 2,350 6.45 >2 11,630 2/18/1983 6,970

10 14311500 Lookingglass Creek at Brockway 158 1956–2002 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 10 112/8/1996 111,300 115.72 1<5 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 35,370 12/26/1955 35,000

11 14312000 South Umpqua River near Brockway 1,670 1906–1912; 1924–1927; 1942–2002 11/19/1996 60,500 24.63 <5 11 112/8/1996 176,300 128.46 1>5 1/1/1997 64,500 25.48 <5 127,200 12/23/1964 125,000

12 14312170 South Fork Deer Creek near Dixonville 15.2 1990–2000 111/18/1996 11,720 16.84 1<10 12 12/8/1996 1,460 6.33 >5 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 5,008 1/20/1996 1,910

13 14314500 Clearwater River above Trap Creek near Toketee Falls

6 200 ft3

/s diversion flow added to peak discharge values from 1984 to 2002. Prior to 1984 measured diversions were included in the annual peak flows.

6 41.6 1928–2002 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 13 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 1

1/1/1997 1968 16.92 1>100 824 12/23/1964 1,020

14 14316000 Fish Creek at Big Fish Ranger Station near Toketee Falls

7 150 ft3

/s diversion flow added to peak discharge values from 1984 to 2002. Prior to 1984 measured diversions were included in the annual peak flows.

7 68.8 1948–1955; 1957–2002 111/18/1996 1

6,390 110.66 1<25 14 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 10,350 12/22/1964 12,100

15 14316495 Boulder Creek near Toketee Falls 30.4 1987–1993; 1995–2002 111/18/1996 111,300 19.78 1>50 15 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 13,010 11/18/1996 11,300

16 14316500 North Umpqua above Copeland Creek near Toketee Falls

8 Site is partially affected by upstream lake and reservoir regulation.

8 475 1950–2002 1

11/18/1996 117,200 114.56 1>10 16 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 34,380 12/22/1964 40,700

17 14316700 Steamboat Creek near Glide 227 1956–2002 111/18/1996 131,400 119.54 1<25 17 12/8/1996 14,700 11.78 >2 1/1/1997 13,100 10.98 <2 40,910 12/22/1964 51,000

18 14317600 Rock Creek near Glide 97.4 1957–1973; 1981–2002 111/18/1996 113,200 112.79 1>10 18 12/4/1996 7,130 9.74 >2 1/31/1997 3,860 7.47 <2 18,630 12/22/1964 22,800

19 14319500 North Umpqua River at Winchester8 1,344 1909–1913; 1924–1929; 1954–2002 111/19/1996 190,000 127.6 1>10 19 12/8/1996 60,200 20.61 <5 1/1/1997 50,500 18.1 >2 129,400 12/22/1964 150,000

20 14319850 Gassy Creek near Nonpareil 9.19 1989–2000 111/18/1996 11,940 16.59 1<25 20 12/8/1996 656 4.4 >2 ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) ( 3 ) 3,032 11/18/1996 1,940

21 14320700 Calapooya Creek near Oakland 210 1956–1980; 1987–2001 111/18/1996 127,100 121.62 1>25 21 12/8/1996 12,400 18.42 >2 1/1/1997 6,390 13.13 <2 34,980 11/18/1996 27,100

22 14321000 Umpqua River near Elkton 3,683 1906; 1908–2002 11/19/1996 162,000 38.41 <10 22 112/9/1996 1169,000 139.42 1>10 1/1/1997 127,000 33.14 <5 254,300 12/23/1964 265,000

23 14321400 Elk Creek near Elkhead 28.7 1987–1999 111/18/1996 16,670 110.82 1<50 23 12/8/1996 2,420 7.79 <5 1/1/1997 945 5.86 <2 8,409 11/18/1996 6,670

24 14323085 Smith River near Drain 22.74 1981–1984; 1986–1989; 1992–2002 111/19/1996 11,750 110.67 1>5 24 12/4/1996 1,110 7.47 >2 1/31/1997 995 6.89 <2 2,987 12/6/1981 2,040

Flooding on November 19, 1996 on the Calapooya River at the Rochester Bridge located on County Road 10-A 

near Sutherlin. (Photograph courtesy of Douglas County Department of Public Works, Roseburg, Oregon.) 

December Floods

Most of the December flooding occurred 

early in the month in response to a series 

of storms. Precipitation for December 8 at 

Roseburg, Riddle, and King Mountain 

was 3.53, 2.75, and 4.2 inches, respectively 

(table 1). Unlike the November 16–19 

storm, the December storms resulted in 

some snow accumulation at higher elevations. Precipitation for the period of December 3–9 contributed to both snowpack and 

runoff. The December flooding was more 

severe in the South Umpqua River Basin 

than the November flooding, which was 

more severe in the North Umpqua River 

Basin. The recurrence interval for the 

December peak discharges within the 

entire basin ranged from more than 2 to 

less than 25 years (table 2). Most of the 

peak discharges occurred on December 8. 

Aerial view of flooding on the lower Umpqua River in December 1996. 

(Photograph by Jerry Redfern, Roseburg, Oregon, News Review; used by permission.) 

January Floods

Another moist subtropical weather 

system brought steady rain starting around 

December 28 and continuing until January 

2. Snowpack and air temperature data 

collected during this period at the King 

Mountain and Diamond Lake SNOTEL 

stations showed a net depletion of the 

preexisting snowpack.

Most of the January peak discharges 

occurred on January 1 within the Umpqua 

River Basin. However, a separate storm 

later in the month caused January peak 

discharges to occur on January 31 in some 

tributary creeks in the lower section of the 

Umpqua River. The recurrence interval 

for the January peak discharges ranged 

from less than 2 to more than 100 years 

(table 2). 
This November 1996 debris flow along Hubbard Creek 

killed four people. Debris flows occur when soils 

saturated by extended heavy rainfall give way, 

carrying rocks and other debris, sometimes long 

distances. (Photograph by Amiran White, Roseburg, 

Oregon, News Review; used by permission.) 

The most severe flooding occurred in the 

upland reaches of the South Umpqua 

River Basin. Although the magnitudes of 

the November floods at some sites were 

greater than those of the January floods, 

the January floods caused more damage. 

After 3 months of above average 

precipitation throughout the Umpqua 

River Basin, soils had become saturated 

by January, and conditions were more 

conducive to landslides and road failures 

than they were earlier in the season. 

Damage to roads and bridges within 

the Umpqua National Forest caused 

by the January floods were roughly 

equivalent to damage caused by the 

November and December floods 

combined (Mikeal Jones, USDA Forest 

Service, written commun., 2004).

Data Collection and Analyses

Streamflow data are crucial for realtime flood monitoring, emergency 

response, water-supply planning, 

dam and reservoir system operation, 

and engineering and maintenance of 

bridges, roads, and other structures. 

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 

operates more than 20 stream-gaging 

and lake-level monitoring stations in the 

Umpqua River Basin. Douglas County, 

Oregon Water Resources Department, 

and the Bureau of Land Management 

also operate a total of about 15 streamgaging stations. The stream-gaging 

stations selected for this analysis had 

minimal upstream regulation and an adequate stream stage-discharge relation. 1 

The technical method used to determine the recurrence interval of floods for 

almost all of the stream-gaging stations 

followed guidelines recommended by the 

U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee 

on Water Data (1982). Flood-frequency 

characteristics for stations with at least 

10 years of record were calculated by 

fitting the logarithms of annual peaks to 

a Pearson Type III frequency distribution.

The period of record used in the flood 

frequency analysis, upstream drainage 

area, 100-year peak discharge, and date 

and magnitude of the largest historical 

peak discharge for each station are shown 

in table 2. The stations on Cow Creek 

below McCollough Creek near Glendale 

(14309220), Olalla Creek near Tenmile 

(14311200), Clearwater River above Trap 

Creek near Toketee Falls (14314500), 

Fish Creek at Big Creek Ranger Station 

near Toketee Falls (14316000), North 

Umpqua River above Copeland Creek 

near Toketee Falls (14316500) and at 

Winchester (14319500) had records 

that were partially affected by upstream 

reservoir regulation or diversions. More 

information on how the flood frequency 

analyses were made at these stations is 

described in table 2. 

1 Stage-discharge relation is the relation 

between the water-surface elevation, termed stage, 

and the volume of water flowing in a channel per 

unit time, termed discharge.

A mudslide on November 21, 1996, resulted in the collapse of a section of Interstate 5 along the South Umpqua 

River near Roseburg, Oregon. Damage to roads and bridges was widespread during the storms of November–

January 1996–97. (Photograph by Christian Murdock, Roseburg, Oregon, News Review; used by permission.)
References Cited

U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee 

on Water Data, 1982, Guidelines for 

determining flood flow frequency, 

Bulletin 17B of the Hydrology 

Subcommittee: Reston, Virginia, 

U.S. Geological Survey, Office of 

Water Data Coordination, 183 p.

Acknowledgements

This publication was produced in 

cooperation with the USDA Forest 

Service, Umpqua National Forest; Bureau 

of Land Management, Roseburg District; 

and the Oregon Water Resources Department Douglas County Watermaster. 

Special thanks for assistance from 

Mikeal Jones, Umpqua National Forest, 

and Elaine Youngquist, Public Works 

Department, Douglas County, Oregon.

By John C. Risley 

For More Information

The U.S. Geological Survey has served 

the public and Federal, State, Tribal, 

and local governments since 1879 by 

collecting, analyzing, and publishing 

detailed information about the Nation’s 

mineral, land, and water resources. For 

more information on water resources in 

Oregon: 

Public Information Specialist

U.S. Geological Survey 

10615 SE Cherry Blossom Drive 

Portland, Oregon, 97216 

tel: (503)251-3200 

fax: (503) 251-3470 

email: info-or@usgs.gov

Selected data and interpretive reports 

are available from the USGS Oregon 

District Web site: http://oregon.usgs.gov

Floodwater carried logs and other debris into backyards along the North Umpqua River near Winchester 

during the November 1996 floods. (Photograph by Jerry Redfern, Roseburg, Oregon, News Review; used 

by permission.) 

The rising waters of South Myrtle Creek forced many residents to evacuate their homes. 

(Photograph by Christian Murdock, Roseburg, Oregon, News Review; used by permission.)