# 1 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# Federal Aviation

Administration



# FAA

Aerospace

Forecast

U.S. Department of Transportation

Federal Aviation Administration

Aviation Policy and Plans 

# Fiscal Years 2009 – 2025

# 1 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# MESSAGE FROM THE ADMINISTRATOR

The business of aviation has shown resiliency throughout its first hundred years. We expect that the next

15 years will be yet one more example of how our industry will meet the challenges of the current economic

situation, and how it will adapt to circumstances and lands on its feet. While it is clear from our 2009-2025

forecast that this industry faces challenges, we are equally confident the future holds promise.

The downturn facing aviation mirrors the economic situation around the world. As the economy has

dipped, so has the demand. But we expect that as economic growth returns, so too will passengers and

operations. Trends suggest an industry continuing to change over the next several years, with international

markets growing faster than domestic markets. In addition, we expect the numbers of larger regional jets

flying to increase while most of the smaller regional jets are retired from the fleet.

In 2009, we expect sizeable declines in both domestic and international capacity as carriers respond to

the impacts of the economic downturn. The size of aircraft in domestic markets will fall slightly as airlines

continue to adjust their operations to better match demand.

Aviation finds itself in economic waters that no one would have predicted a decade ago. To be sure,

the business climate is being influenced by several factors. Oil price volatility, economic uncertainty,

congestion concerns and environmental issues are challenging the entire industry. In the long run,

commercial aviation demand at FAA facilities is projected to grow as the economy recovers and air carrier

operations continue to expand. Equally true in the longer term, the demand for general aviation products

and services will be on the upswing. With new business jets and products like light sport aircraft, it is

expected to continue to increase in the future.

With all of this as context, the FAA remains committed to make sure the system can keep pace with

the long-term growth and activity that are coming our way. We’re taking new approaches to airspace,

deploying new and better technology, and using advanced procedures to keep things moving. Efficiency

and environmental stewardship will shape aviation as we advance to NextGen. In short, we are taking the

lessons of the summers of 2007 and 2008 to heart.

This year marks the FAA’s 34th annual Aviation Forecast Conference. Your continued participation will

make it a success.

Lynne Osmus

Acting Administrator

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

2

# 3 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# TABLE OF CONTENTS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . PAGE

Forecast Hig h lig h ts

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

R eview o f 2008

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

U.S. E conomic A cti v ity

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

W orld E conomic A cti v ity

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

C ommercial Av iation

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

World Travel Demand

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

U.S. Travel Demand

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Commercial Air Carriers - Passenger

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Commercial Air Carriers - Cargo

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2008 Financial Results

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers 2008 Aircraft Fleet

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

G eneral Av iation

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

FAA W or k load

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

F

AA A erospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009 - 2025

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

E conomic F orecasts

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

World Economy

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Av iation T raffic and A cti v ity

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Commercial Aviation Forecasts

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

Domestic Markets

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

International Markets

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35

Air Cargo

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38

Commercial Aircraft Fleet

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

General Aviation

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

FAA Workload Forecasts

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

FAA and Contract Towers

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

En Route Centers

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

UNma nn ed A ircra f t Sy stems

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

C ommercial S pace T ra n sportatio n

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

R isks to t h e Forecast

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

A ppe n dix I : Forecast A cc u rac y

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55

A ppe n dix II : ACK N OWLEDGEME N TS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57

Forecast T ables

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

4

# 5 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS

2009-2025

The FAA continues to forecast long term aviation growth, despite global economic conditions. Since 2000,

U.S. airlines have dealt with the impacts of 9/11, heightened concerns about pandemics, the bankruptcy

of four network carriers, record high fuel prices, and the most serious economic downturn since the Great

Depression. In spite of these challenges, the number of passengers traveling continues to grow over

the long term, demonstrating the value of air transportation to the public. In last year’s forecast the FAA

predicted for the U.S. commercial aviation industry to carry one billion passengers by 2016. We now

believe the industry will reach this mark in 2021.

The 2009 forecast for commercial aviation calls for a sharp decline in activity in the near term, with a return

to growth over the long term. The level of activity and demand in the long term, however, is not expected

to snap back to levels published in the previous FAA forecast. The most significant factor preventing

recovery to prior forecast levels is the state of the economy, both domestic and worldwide. In the U.S., the

National Bureau of Economic Research reports the U.S. economy has been in recession since December

2007, with economists speculating this may be the deepest recession since the end of World War II.

Indications are the global economy is not fairing any better. With 8 of the world’s top 10 economies 1 

# in

recession as of January 2009, the global economy is poised to perform worse than any other period during

the past 60 years.

System capacity in available seat miles (ASMs) – the overall yardstick for how busy aviation is both

domestically and internationally – will drop 6.7 percent this year, after posting a 1.2 percent increase during

2008, and then grow at an average of 3.8 percent per year through 2025. In the domestic market, capacity

drops 9.0 percent in 2009 to mark the largest percentage decline in available seat miles since deregulation

of the industry in 1978. Mainline carrier capacity will decline 9.5 percent (in comparison, mainline carriers

reduced capacity by 8.3 percent in the aftermath of 9/11) as both low-cost carriers 2 

# and network carriers 3



# become smaller. For the regional carriers, domestic capacity will drop 5.5 percent from 2008 levels - a

turnaround from recent periods of reduced air travel demand which saw regional capacity expand as

mainline carriers transferred capacity to their lower-cost regional code-share partners. Commercial air

carrier domestic revenue passenger miles (RPMs) are forecast to fall 8.9 percent in 2009, and then grow at

an average of 3.4 percent per year through 2025; enplanements will fall 7.8 percent for the year, and then

grow at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent for the remainder of the forecast.

Air traffic will not rise to prior forecast levels even when the economy recovers because of the absence of

significant price cuts as measured by real yield 4 

# in the near term. Following previous downturns (e.g. the

recessions in 1991 and 2001) carriers stimulated passenger demand by reducing fares sharply. The industry’s

response to the current economic downturn is to better match supply (seats) and demand (passengers) by

modestly cutting fares and dramatically reducing capacity. With no evidence of pent up demand, we do not

anticipate a return to previously forecasted passenger levels even when recovery takes hold.

1 Ranked by Gross Domestic Product for Calendar Year 2008 (United States, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Canada).

2 Allegiant Air, American Trans Air, America West Airlines, AirTran Airways, Frontier Airlines, JetBlue Airways, Skybus Airlines, Southwest Airlines,

Spirit Airlines, USA3000, and Virgin America Airlines.

3 Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Continental Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Northwest Airlines, United Airlines, and US Airways.

4 Calculated by dividing passenger revenues by revenue passenger miles and adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index. Yield is the

revenue an airline receives for every passenger mile travelled and is often used as a proxy for airfare.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

6 The average size of domestic aircraft is expected to decline by 0.7 seats in FY 2009 to 120.1 seats.

Average seats per aircraft for mainline carriers are projected to fall by 0.8 seats as network carriers continue

to reconfigure their domestic fleets. While demand for 70-90 seat aircraft continues to increase, we expect

the number of 50 seat regional jets in service to fall, increasing the average regional aircraft size in 2009 by

0.9 seats to 53.7 seats per mile. Passenger trip length in domestic markets will decrease by 10.5 miles this

year, largely due to the impact of capacity realignment.

The downturn in the economy has also dampened the near-term prospects for the general aviation industry.

Longer-term, we see growth in business aviation demand driven by a growing U.S. and world economy.

As the fleet grows, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 1.8

percent a year through 2025.

The shaky global economy that took hold in the latter part of 2008 is expected to put a squeeze on

air travel demand through 2009, although falling oil prices will offset some of the decline in demand,

allowing U.S. carriers to be profitable in 2009. To navigate the volatile operating environment, carriers

are attempting to increase revenues per customer (through increased fares and/or additional fees) while

driving down their costs by implementing capacity cutbacks (by reducing flights and/or gauge of aircraft,

delaying deliveries of newer aircraft, and/or grounding older aircraft). Over the long term, we see a

competitive and profitable industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel and air fares growing

more slowly than inflation.

# 7 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# RE V IEW OF 2008

Each passing month of 2008 saw the light on consumer confidence dim as energy prices spiked, housing

foreclosures climbed, credit tightened, and unemployment surged. This chain of events resulted in less

than expected growth in air travel demand for the year. In 2008 5 

# system revenue passenger miles (RPMs)

grew 0.7 percent as enplanements fell 1.0 percent. Commercial air carrier domestic enplanements were

down 1.5 percent while international enplanements grew 3.3 percent to a record 77.8 million. The systemwide load factor fell 0.4 points from its all-time high in 2007 to be 79.5 percent. Domestic enplanement

market share for low-cost carriers shrank in 2008 while network and regional carrier share increased.

The network carrier share of domestic enplanements grew 1.1 points to 49.2 percent while regional

carrier market share rose 0.5 points to 23.1 percent. The decline in share for low-cost carriers is partially

attributed to the cessation of operations by ATA and Skybus.

Systemwide real yield increased 1.6 percent during 2008, but decelerating demand coupled with

accelerating costs led to operating losses for the commercial air carrier industry after two years of

operating profitably. Industry operating losses mounted in the first part of the year due to costs from

soaring fuel prices and totaled $2.0 billion by year end, compared to a $10.1 billion operating profit posted

for 2007. The network carriers reported operating losses of $5.1 billion, with six of the seven carriers

reporting losses. The remaining passenger carriers reported operating profits of $692.5 million, while the

cargo carriers reported operating profits of $2.4 billion. The net loss for U.S. commercial air carriers in

2008 is $18.5 billion. Much of the loss stems from merger related charges at Delta Air Lines and Northwest

Airlines. These two carriers recorded goodwill impairment charges totaling $10.0 billion during the second

quarter, accounting for over 50 percent of the net loss for the year. Cargo carriers continued to report

strong results with net profits of $1.3 billion.

The market for general aviation products and services showed mixed results in 2008. Worldwide shipments

declined for the first time since 2002 (down 6.7 percent) but billings were up 14.4 percent compared to

2007. Piston aircraft shipments fell 20.7 percent while turbine aircraft shipments increased by 16.7 percent.

The increase in shipments and billings seen in the jet fleet was stimulated by growth in the U.S. and world

economy. Despite the higher shipments and billings, general aviation activity fell 5.6 percent in 2008.

Total operations at FAA and contract tower airports fell 4.3 percent as increases in air carrier operations

were offset by declines in other user categories and were at their lowest levels since 1985. Although the

number of flights fell, the combination of fleet mix changes with more regional and business jets in the

nation’s skies and carriers consolidate their operations in their large hubs, resulting in increased workload

due to the continued growth in the complexity of the airspace FAA must manage.

5 All stated years and quarters for U.S. economic and U.S. air carrier traffic and financial data and forecasts are on a fiscal year (FY) basis

(October 1 through September 30). All stated years and quarters for international economic and world traffic and financial data are on a

calendar year (CY) basis, unless otherwise stated.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

8 

# U.S. E conomic A cti v ity

The U.S. economy slowed in FY 2008, in a year that was marked by large contrasts. After growing 2.1

percent in FY 2007, growth in U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 1.9 percent in fiscal year 2008.

However, there were wide variations in the seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rates as they ranged from

a high of 2.8 percent in the third quarter to a low of -0.5 percent in the fourth quarter. The first part of the

year was dominated by the unprecedented rise in the price of oil that led to dampened consumer spending.

Partly due to the slowdown in consumer spending, growth in the economy was tepid in the early part of

the year, prompting Congress to pass a stimulus plan that included individual tax rebates. The rebates and

subsequent jump in spending by consumers was the primary cause of the 2.8 percent growth recorded in

the third quarter. By the fourth quarter, the impact of the rebates had waned and consumers retrenched,

leading to the fall in output.

According to the consumer price index (CPI), prices rose 4.4 percent in FY 2008, as surging oil prices made

all items in the economy more expensive. The 4.4 percent rise in the CPI in FY 2008 was the highest since

1991, and was 2.1 percentage points higher than in FY 2007.

Oil prices, as measured by the U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, rose 67.6 percent in FY 2008 to $101.53.

Higher prices were spurred by strong global demand for oil, concerns about potential supply disruptions,

and also the actions of speculators in the oil market. However, the rise in the average price for the year

fails to tell the whole story. Oil prices, which averaged $73.54 in September 2007, rose rapidly to peak at

$129.03 in July 2008, dropped to $98.91 by September, and continued to fall through the first quarter of FY

2009 to $39.82 in December. U . S. G R O S S D O M E S T IC PROD U C T

SE AS O N A L L Y ADJ US T E D ANNUA L G R O W T H

F Y 2007 AND 2008 B Y Q U A R T E R

0. 9 2. 8

(0 .5 ) 4. 8

0. 0 4. 8

(0 .2 ) 1. 5

-1 .0 0. 0 1. 0 2. 0 3. 0 4. 0 5. 0 6. 0

20 06 -0 4 2 00 7- 01 20 07 -0 2 2 00 7- 03 20 07 -0 4 2 00 8- 01 20 08 -0 2 2 00 8- 03

F i sc al Ye ar 20 07 F i sc a l Ye ar 20 08ANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# 9 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# W orld E conomic A cti v ity

As the world’s largest economy, the U.S continues to have a prominent role in world economic growth. In

recent years much had been written about the “decoupling” of the world economy from the U.S. economy.

However, events in 2008 showed that the world and U.S. economies were very much linked together. What

started out to be a U.S. slowdown in the beginning of 2008, turned into a full-fledged global slowdown by

the end of the year. In calendar year 2008, as has been the case since 2000, U.S. GDP growth lagged that

of the rest of the world, with U.S. and world economic growth reaching 1.3 and 2.3 percent, respectively.

GDP growth in the rest of the world was driven by the growth in Asian and Latin American markets.

On a calendar year basis, Canadian GDP growth lagged that of the U.S. in 2008, with growth of 0.7 percent.

The combined economies of the Asian and Far East nations grew by 3.6 percent in 2008, down from 5.9 U . S . A ND W O R L D G D P

C A L E NDA R Y E A R S 2002 - 2 00 8

3. 6

2. 0 4. 0

3. 5

2. 8

2. 5

1. 3 2. 9

2. 0

1. 6 3. 8 4. 1

2. 3 2. 7



# 0. 0 1. 0 2. 0 3. 0 4. 0 5. 0

2002 20 03 200 4 2 005 200 6 2 00 7 2 00 8

U. S. Wo rl dANNUALPERCENTGROWTH 

# U. S. RE FI NE RS ’ A CQ UI SI TI ON CO ST

$0 $2 0 $4 0 $6 0 $8 0 $1 00 $1 20 $1 40

20 02 -0 1 2 00 3- 01 20 04 -0 1 2 00 5- 01 20 06 -0 1 2 00 7- 01 20 08 -0 1$ PER BARREL

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

10 percent a year earlier. This region includes the world’s second largest economy, Japan (down 0.1 percent),

and the world’s most vibrant economy, China (up 9.2 percent). The combined economies of the Europe/

Middle East/Africa nations rose just 1.7 percent in 2008, as solid growth in Eastern Europe (up 4.7 percent)

offset slow growth in Eurozone 6 

# countries (up 0.9 percent). GDP in Latin America grew by 3.7 percent

with Brazil up 5.1 percent while Mexico grew only 1.3 percent as the U.S. economic slowdown resulted in

slower economic growth in Mexico.



# C ommercial Av iation

Commercial aviation hit a slippery slope during 2008. Unpredictable jet fuel prices and a softening global

economy hurt the industry. After posting its first net profit since the 9/11 terror attacks in 2007, the U.S.

industry posted a net loss in 2008, with a similar outcome predicted for foreign carriers. With the U.S.,

Europe and Japan reportedly in a recession, global industry net losses for calendar year 2008 are expected

to be $5.0 billion, with a vast majority ($3.9 billion, excluding “fresh-start” accounting items) absorbed

by the U.S. carriers. 7 

# U.S. airlines were able to implement moderate fare increases during 2008 through

successful capacity management despite increasing uncertainty in their operating environment, tempering

the impact of the downturn.

W orld T ravel D ema n d

Based on data compiled by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), world air carriers

transported 2.26 billion passengers (up 6.4 percent) a total of 4.2 trillion revenue passenger kilometers

(RP K s) (up 6.7 percent) in CY 2007. Although worldwide traffic results are not available for full year 2008,

ICAO estimates that worldwide RP K s and passengers increased 1.8 and 0.8 percent, respectively. 8



# W O R L D P A SS E N G E R D E M A ND

C A LEN D A R Y E AR S 20 02 - 2 00 8

0. 8 14 .1

1. 8 11 .7

6. 4 7. 1

-0 .1 5. 3

3. 2 6. 7

5. 9 8. 0

0. 5 1. 8

-4 .0 0 . 0 4 . 0 8 . 0 1 2 .0 1 6 .0



# 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 E

P a ss en ge rs RP Ks

So ur ce : 2 008 Wo rl d Es ti ma te – I CA O, De ce mb er 2008ANNUALPERCENTGROWTH



# 6 Austria, Belgium, Cypress, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain,

Slovakia, Slovenia

7 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2008.

8 ICAO News Release, December 18, 2008.

# 11 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

Statistics from the Association of European Airlines (AEA) show that passengers decreased 1.5 percent and

RP K s increased 1.2 percent in CY 2008. Capacity, as measured by available seat kilometers (AS K s), was

up 3.0 percent during the same time period. For the year, AEA carrier traffic was strongest in the MiddleEast (8.2 percent), followed by the South Atlantic (7.5 percent), and North Africa regions (6.6 percent).

Traffic growth in the North Atlantic region was minimal, up 0.2 percent.

The Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) reported a decrease of 1.0 percent in RP K s on a 1.7 percent

increase in AS K s for 2008. Passengers were down 1.8 percent during the same period.

In CY 2008, U.S. and foreign flag carriers will transport an estimated 153.9 million passengers between the

United States and the rest of the world, a 2.7 percent increase over 2007. Growth in the Atlantic market

was solid (up 7.0 percent) and weak in both the Latin America market (up 1.4 percent) and the Canadian

transborder market (up 0.7 percent). Passenger growth fell in the Asia/Pacific market (down 1.7 percent) as

declines in Japan and Australia offset gains elsewhere. AS IA PA CI FI C CA RR IE R S C A PA CI TY AN D T R AF FI C

CA LEN DA R YE AR 200 8

-9 .0 -6 .0 -3 .0 0. 0 3. 0 6. 0 9. 0

J F M A M J J A S O N D



# AS KS RP KS

So ur ce : As soci at io n of As ia P a ci fic Ai r l in es (A APA)% CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSYEAR 

# EU RO P E AN C A RR IE RS C A P A CI TY AN D TR AF FI C

C A LE ND AR YE AR 20 08

-6 .0 -3 .0 0. 0 3. 0 6. 0 9. 0



# J F M A M J J A S O N D

AS K S R P K S

So ur ce : A ssoci a t io n of E u ro pe an Ai r l in es (A EA )% CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSYEAR

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

12 Worldwide air cargo demand was weak in 2008. 9 

# According to ICAO, worldwide freight tonnes

increased about 1.1 percent in 2008 compared to growth of 4.5 percent in 2007. AEA member carriers

FT K s were down 2.8 percent for the year while AAPA member carriers FT K s were down 6.1 percent for

the same period.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports world air carriers (including U.S. airlines) are

expected to register an operating profit of $1.1 billion for 2008. Escalating fuel prices and the collapse of

the U.S. housing market and the resulting credit crunch led to deteriorating financial results in 2008, with

IATA estimating global airline industry net losses to be $5.0 billion for the year. Based on financial data

compiled by ICAO, between 2000 and 2007 world airlines produced cumulative operating profits of

$53 billion and net losses of $18 billion. 10



# 9 ICAO News Release, December 18, 2008.

10 IATA Financial Forecast, December 2008. W O R L D A I R C A R G O DE M A N D

C A L E NDAR Y E A R S 20 02 – 2 008*

2. 7 5. 1

4. 5

1. 1 9. 4

9. 0

6. 7

4. 7 5. 5 7. 2

5. 5

2. 5 10 .2

0. 0 3. 0 6. 0 9. 0 12 .0

20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08

T o nne s R T K S

So ur c e: IC AO

*R TK gr ow th in 2 008 wa s no t av ai la bl e.ANNUALPERCENTGROWTH 

# T O T A L P A SS E N G E R S T O /F R O M T H E U N IT E D ST A T E S

U . S . A N D F O R E I G N F L A G C A R R IE R S

C A L E NDA R YE A R S 20 02 – 2 00 8

43. 4 4 4 .6 4 8 .9 4 9 .9 4 9 .8 53. 3 5 7 .0 36. 9 3 9 .1 4 2 .7 4 4 .2 4 7 .1 48. 6 4 9 .3 22. 3 2 0 .2 2 3 .8 2 5 .1 2 5 .6 26. 3 2 5 .9

17. 6 1 6 .9 1 8 .5 1 9 .7 2 1 .0 21. 5 2 1 .7



# 0 20 40 60 80 10 0 12 0 14 0 16 0 18 0

2002 2003 200 4 2 005 200 6 2 00 7 2 00 8 At la nt ic L. Am er ic a P a ci fi c Ca na daMillions of Passengers

# 13 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

U. S

. T ravel D ema n d

By year end FY 2008, the U.S. commercial aviation industry consisted of 19 scheduled mainline air carriers

that use large passenger jets (over 90 seats) and 67 regional carriers that use smaller piston, turboprop,

and regional jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) to provide connecting passengers to the larger carriers. Mainline

and regional carriers provide domestic and international passenger service between the U.S. and foreign

destinations, although regional carrier international service is confined to border markets in Canada,

Mexico, and the Caribbean. During 2008 two passenger carriers started scheduled operations (Air Choice

One and Wings Air), while ten discontinued operations. 11 

# In addition, two carriers merged — Delta Air Lines

and Northwest Airlines. Twenty-three all-cargo carriers were providing domestic and/or international air

cargo service at the end 2008 — three cargo carriers ceased operations during the year (Focus Air Cargo,

Gemini Air Cargo, K itty Hawk Air Cargo) and two merged (Southern Air and Cargo 360).

Three distinct trends have occurred over the past several years that have helped shape today’s U.S.

commercial air carrier industry: (1) convergence of the network and low cost carrier business models; (2)

rapid growth by network carriers into international markets; and (3) transformation of the domestic air

carrier fleet.

C ommercial A ir C arriers — P assengers

After moderate growth in 2007, U.S. commercial air carriers posted sluggish gains in capacity and traffic

during 2008. System (the sum of domestic plus international) capacity rose 1.2 percent to 1.0 trillion ASMs

while RPMs grew 0.7 percent to 827.4 billion. During the same period system-wide passenger growth

declined 1.0 percent, the first year-over-year decline in passengers since 2002, and only the second decline

since the 1991 recession.

The fall in passenger demand can be characterized as a one-two punch. The first punch came early in the

year with an unprecedented rise in fuel prices. To recoup the increasing costs of fuel, carriers curtailed W O R L D AI R C A R R IE R PROF IT /L O S S

C A LEN D A R Y E AR S 2002 - 2 00 8

$1 9. 7

-$ 5. 6 -$ 4. 1 -$ 5. 0 -$ 4. 8 $1 5. 0

-$ 1. 4 $3 .3 $4 .3

$1 .1

-$ 0. 1

-$ 11 .3 -$ 7. 5 $1 2. 9

-$ 1 5 -$ 1 0 -$ 5 $ 0 $ 5 $ 1 0 $ 1 5 $ 2 0 $ 2 5

2002 200 3 2 004 2005 200 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8



# O p er a t in g N e t

So ur ce : 2 008 Wo rl d Es ti ma te : IA TA

, De ce mb er 20 08; 200 2 - 2007 IC AOBILLIONS OF U.S. DOLLARS



# 11 Carriers ceasing operations in 2008: Mainline – Aloha Airlines, ATA Airlines, EOS Airlines, Skybus Airlines; Regional – Air Midwest,

Big Sky Airlines, Boston-Maine Airways, L.A.B. Flying Service, Skyway Airline, Vintage Props and Jets

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

14 capacity growth and raised fares, resulting in reduced passenger volume. The second blow came from

a deepening recession and growing unemployment. As consumer confidence faded, demand for air

services by business and leisure travelers alike weakened. For the year, mainline carrier passenger growth

contracted 1.5 percent while regional carrier growth was 0.7 percent. In the domestic market mainline

passengers fell 2.2 percent from 2007 levels while passenger growth in the international market was up for

the sixth consecutive year (up 3.5 percent).

In 2008, system load factor declined for the first time since 2001 as trip length and seats per aircraft mile

climbed. The load factor fell 0.4 points to 79.5 percent, down from the all-time high posted in 2007 (79.9

percent), and trip length grew 18.8 miles to 1,092.5 miles. For the third consecutive year, seats per aircraft

mile increased (up 1.4 seats) to 138.0 seats per aircraft mile. Mainline carriers continued to shift wide-body

flying from domestic to international routes while regional carriers phased out some smaller regional jet (50

seats and below) operations.

U. S. C O M M ER C I AL AI R CA R R IE R S

SY ST EM RP M S AN D EN PL AN EM EN T S

FI SC AL YE AR S 20 02 - 2 00 8

0. 7 7. 0

0. 4

(8 .2 ) (1 .0 ) 3. 4

2. 4 7. 5

2. 7 3. 9

2. 6 10 .6

7. 4

(8 .6 )

-1 2. 0 -9 .0 -6 .0 -3 .0 0. 0 3. 0 6. 0 9. 0 12 .0

20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08

EN

PL AN EM EN TS RP MS

So ur ce : DO T Fo rm 41 & F o rm 298CANNUALPERCENTGROWTH 

# U. S. CO M M ER C I AL AI R C A R R IE R S

SY ST EM AS M S & AI R C RA FT O P ER AT IO NS

F I SC AL YE AR S 20 02 - 2 00 8

1. 2 2. 7

(0

. 2) (0 .4 ) 7. 0

(8 .6 ) 5. 3

3. 8

(3 .3 ) 0. 2

(5 .5 ) (2 .1 ) 0. 0 3. 6

-1 0. 0 -8 .0 -6 .0 -4 .0 -2 .0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0 8. 0

20 02 20 03 2 004 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08

ASMS OP ER AT IO NS

So ur ce : AS M s - D OT Fo rm s 41 & Fo r m 298C ; O p er at io ns – F AA AT AD S/ O P SN ET Da taANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# 15 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

Domestic Passenger Markets

Domestic capacity (50 states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. V irgin Islands) was down 0.4 percent in 2008

following a 1.7 percent increase in 2007, and departures decreased by 2.3 percent. After growing 2.0

percent in the first half of 2008, ASMs dropped 1.0 percent in the third quarter, and 4.5 percent in the final

quarter. Mainline carrier capacity was down 1.2 percent for the year, while regional carrier capacity was up

5.3 percent. At the end of 2008, domestic ASMs were 3.1 percent above pre-9/11 levels while departures

remained 6.8 percent below.

Domestic passenger enplanements and RPMs fell at a faster rate than ASMs in 2008. Mainline carrier

enplanements were down 2.2 percent for the year while regional carrier enplanements were up 0.7

percent, marking the slowest rate of growth posted by regional carriers since 1995 (0.4 percent growth).

Enplanement growth was moderate in the first half of the year, up 1.6 percent, before losing steam and

dropping 2.8 and 4.8 percent in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. U . S . C O M M E R C I A L C A R R IE R S

D O M E ST IC C A P A C I T Y

F I SC A L Y E A R 2008

-1 0. 0 -8 .0 -6 .0 -4 .0 -2 .0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0

O c t N ov D e c J a n F e b M a r Ap r M a y J u n J ul Au g S ep

A S M s Depa r t u r es So u r ce : DO T F o r m 41Year/Year % Change



# U . S . C O M M E R C I A L C A R R IE R S

D O M E S T IC T R A FFI C

F I SC A L Y E A R 2008

- 

# 10 .0 -8 .0 -6 .0 -4 .0 -2 .0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0

O c t N ov De c J a n F e b M a r Ap r M a y J u n J u l A u g S ep

R P M s En pl an em ents

So u r ce : DO T F o r m 41Year/Year % Change

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

16 Similar to passengers, domestic RPMs dropped faster than ASMs with domestic RPMs down 1.0 percent

in 2008. After growing at a moderate rate of 2.4 percent rate during the first half of the year, traffic fell 2.3

percent in the third quarter, and dropped dramatically for the final quarter of the year (down 5.7%). For the

year, mainline carrier RPM growth was down 1.5 percent, while regional carrier growth was up 2.7 percent.

Domestic carrier load factor dropped for the first time in six years to be 79.3 percent, down from the alltime high of 79.8 percent in 2007. Mainline carrier load factor was 80.2 percent, 0.2 points lower than the

previous year, while regional carrier load factor dropped 1.8 points to 73.6 percent.

Since 2000, total domestic capacity has increased only 3.1 percent. Mainline carriers have shrunk their

domestic capacity by 5.4 percent with cutbacks by network carriers more than offsetting the growth of lowcost carriers. Making up the shortfall from network carrier capacity cuts during this time are the regional

carriers. This segment of the industry has greatly increased capacity since 2000 (up 156.6 percent). During

the same period, mainline carrier RPMs have increased 6.5 percent, even with capacity reductions, while

enplanements have declined by 7.0 percent. In comparison, regional carrier RPMs and enplanements

have increased 217.4 and 97.4 percent, respectively. As a result, mainline carrier domestic capacity share

has fallen from 94.7 percent in 2000 to 86.9 percent in 2008, while their share of RPMs has dropped from

95.5 percent to 87.8 percent during the same period. Regional carrier enplanement share almost doubled

during the same period, going from 12.4 percent in 2000 to 23.2 percent in 2008.

Each year between 2000 and 2007, the percentage share of domestic mainline capacity operated between

network and low cost carriers has narrowed, signaling a trend toward convergence of their respective

business models. The trend paused in 2008 with the network portion of mainline capacity increasing 2.3

points, going from 65.7 percent to 68.0 percent, while low cost carrier share shrank. This turnabout is

partially attributed to the cessation of operations by two low cost carriers during the year (American Trans

Air and Skybus Airlines). Prior to 2008, low-cost carrier capacity share rose from 17.0 percent in 2000 to

31.8 percent in 2007.

U. S. CO MMERCI AL AI R CA RR IE RS

DO ME ST IC EN PL ANE ME NT S BY CA RRI ER GR OU P

FI SC AL YE AR S 2002 – 2 00 8

M a in li n e R e g i o n a l s

So u r ce : DO T F o r m 41 & F o r m 29 8C 486. 5 482. 8 502. 6 523. 1 516. 2 533. 9 522. 3



# 0 10 0 20 0 30 0 40 0 50 0 60 0 70 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200 7 2 00 8MILLIONS 

# 88. 6 105. 0 125. 9 146. 4 152. 2 156. 2 157. 4

# 17 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

International Passenger Markets

Continuing the recent trend of rapid growth by network carriers into international markets, U.S. carriers

posted a fourth consecutive year of gains in international capacity and traffic in 2008. U.S. carrier ASMs

and departures were up 5.8 and 1.0 percent, respectively, in 2008. ASM growth was higher in the first half

of the year (up 6.9 percent) and then moderated a bit during the second half of the year (up 4.8 percent).

ASMs increased in all world travel regions—up 11.4, 0.9, and 1.1 percent, respectively, in Atlantic, Latin

American, and Asia/Pacific markets. Strong growth in the Atlantic region was assisted by the European

Union-United States Open Skies Agreement which became effective on March 30, 2008.

International RPMs were up 5.3 percent and passenger enplanements were up 3.3 percent in 2008 with

faster growth recorded in the first half of the year (up 7.6 percent for the first half versus 3.5 percent during

the second half for RPMs; up 6.1 percent versus 1.1 percent for enplanements). The Atlantic market

posted the strongest gain, with RPMs up 10.4 percent and enplanements up 8.2 percent. RPMs and

enplanements grew 4.0 and 2.7 percent, respectively, in the Latin American market, while RPMs dropped

1.7 percent as enplanements fell 3.2 percent in the Pacific market.

U. S. CO M M ER C I AL C A RR IE RS

IN TE R N AT IO NA L TR AF F I C

F I SC AL YE AR 20 08

-6 .0 -3 .0 0.

0 3.

0 6.

0 9.

0

O c t N ov De c J an F e b M ar Ap r M ay J u n J ul Au g S ep

R P M s E n pl a n e m en ts So ur ce : DO T Fo rm 41Year/Year % Change 

# U

. S

. C O M M E R C I A L C A R R I E R S

I N T E R N A

T I O N A

L C A P A C I T Y

F I S C A L Y E A R 2 0 0 8

- 8

. 0 - 4

. 0 0

. 0 4

. 0 8

. 0 1 2

. 0



# O c t N o v D e c J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p

A S M s D e p a r t u r e s S o u r c e : D O T F o r m 4 1Year/Year % Change

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

18 The international load factor dropped 0.3 percentage points to 79.9 percent from its all-time high of 80.2 percent

in 2007. Load factor increased in the Latin America market (up 2.4 points to 79.3 percent) and fell in the Pacific

market (down 2.3 points to 80.6 percent) and in the North Atlantic market (down 0.7 points to 80.0 percent).

In 2008, 50 percent of the passengers flying abroad on U.S. flag carriers traveled to the Latin America

market. The remaining 50 percent of international passengers was split between the Atlantic market (33

percent) and the Pacific market (17 percent).

C ommercial A ir C arriers— C argo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international revenue freight/express and mail. The demand

for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in the bellies of passenger

aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft, on both scheduled and nonscheduled service.

U.S. air carriers flew 38.9 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2008, down 2.8 percent from 2007, with

domestic cargo RTMs declining by 9.5 percent (14.3 billion) and international RTMs increasing by 1.7

percent (24.6 billion). The decline in domestic RTMs and the sluggish growth in international RTMs reflect

many factors including the recession in the U.S. and other world regions, strong price competition from

alternative shipping modes, and volatile oil prices.

Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers was 71.3 percent of total RTMs in 2008, with passenger carriers

flying the rest, or 28.7 percent of the total. Total RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers declined 4.1 percent in

2008, from 29.0 billion to 27.8 billion. Total RTMs flown by passenger carriers were 11.2 billion in 2008 (up

0.9 percent).

On August 3, 2007, “Recommendations of the 9/11 Commission Act of 2007” was signed into law. Section

1602 of this Act states that air cargo placed on passenger aircraft will receive the same level of screening

as passenger-checked baggage. The legislation calls for the establishment of a system by 2010 that will

require 100 percent inspection of cargo transported on passenger aircraft. TSA is developing a system to

physically screen 50 percent of air cargo originating in the Unites States carried on passenger aircraft by

February 2009 and 100 percent by August 2010. It is anticipated the law will lead to increased cost and

time requirements for shipment of cargo on passenger air carriers. U. S. C O M M ER C I AL AI R CA R R IE R S

C A R G O R E VE NUE TO N M I LE S

FI SC AL YE AR S 2002 – 2 00 8 *

16 .3 16 .1 15 .7 15 .8 14 .3 14. 8 18 .5 20 .1 23 .1 24 .0 24 .2 24 .6

15 .0 13 .0



# 0 10 20 30 40

20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 2 0 07 20 08



# Do m e st ic I n te r n at io n a l

* No te : F i sc al ye ar s 20 03 a nd be yo nd in cl ude ch ang es in r e po r t in g r e qu ir em en tsBILLIONS

# 19 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

U. S

. C ommercial A ir C arriers 2008 Fi n a n cial R es u lts

After posting a net profit in 2007 ($5.8 billion), financial results for the U.S. commercial airline industry

(including regional carriers) turned downward in 2008 as record high oil prices and falling passenger

demand took their toll on the industry. In FY 2008, U.S. commercial airlines reported an operating loss

of $2.0 billion and a record net loss of $18.5 billion, primarily due to $10.0 billion in losses at Delta and

Northwest stemming from a reduction in the value of the airlines due to high fuel prices. Excluding these

losses, the industry posted a net loss of $8.5 billion.

Operating revenues (passenger and cargo) were up 8.8 percent in 2008, reflecting higher fares and

increased demand for higher yield cargo. Operating expenses were up 16.9 percent in 2008, as jet fuel

prices increased 52.1 percent from $1.97 to $3.00 per gallon.

In 2008, passenger carriers reported operating losses of $4.4 billion and net losses of $19.8 billion, while

air cargo carriers reported operating and net profits of $2.4 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively. Passenger

carriers generated an operating loss ($4.4 billion) in domestic markets for the first time in three years while

international operations remained profitable ($20.8 million). Net losses were reported for passenger carriers

in both the domestic ($15.5 billion) and international market ($4.3 billion). Cargo carriers had stronger

financial results than the passenger carriers. Domestically, cargo carriers posted operating and net

profits of $956.2 million and $503.3 million, respectively. In international markets, these carriers reported

operating profits of $1.4 billion and net profits of $790.8 million.

The industry’s financial deterioration is largely due to the financial performance of the network carriers.

After earning $2.0 billion in FY 2007, the seven network carriers reported a $14.9 billion net loss in FY 2008,

a swing of $16.9 billion. Most of the downturn occurred in domestic markets where the seven carriers

accounted for 61.3 percent of capacity and 49.2 percent of passengers transported. Between 2000 and

2007, the domestic operations of these carriers reported combined operating and net losses of $25.6 and

$37.3 billion, respectively. These losses widened in 2008, with the network carriers reporting operating

losses of $5.0 billion and net losses of $10.5 billion. The nine reporting low-cost carriers reported operating

profits of $301.4 million and net losses of $83.3 million in 2008. Strong competition from the network

carriers, high fuel prices, and falling demand hurt many low-cost carriers’ profits. U. S. C O M M ER C I AL AI R CA R R IE R S

O P ER AT IN G AN D NE T PR OF IT /L OS S

FI SC AL YE AR S 20 02 - 2 00 8

$5 .6

-$ 1 1 .7 $ 5 .8

-$ 2. 0 $ 1 0. 1

-$ 1. 2 $ 0 .7

-$ 4 . 6

-$ 1 0 .6

-$ 18 .5 -$ 0. 2

-$ 4. 6 -$ 5. 7

-$ 10 .9



# -2 0. 0 -1 6. 0 -1 2. 0 -8 .0 -4 .0 0. 0 4. 0 8. 0 12 .0

20 02 20 03 2 004 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 O p er a ting Pr of it /L os s

Ne t P r of it /L os s

So u r ce : D O T F o rm 41 & F o rm 29 8 CBILLIONS OF DOLLARS

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

20 Strategic capacity cutbacks by the air carriers throughout 2008 coupled with fuel surcharges paid off in

strong growth for mainline carrier passenger yield. After a modest increase of 2.4 percent in 2007, mainline

carrier passenger yield rose 5.9 percent in 2008.

In 2008, regional carriers reported operating profits of $494.5 million and net profits of $138.8 million. The

future of regional carriers is closely tied to the fortunes of the larger network carriers for whom they provide

feed at mainline air carrier hub airports. Similar to the strong growth in mainline carrier yield, regional carrier

passenger yield increased 6.7 percent in 2008. However, reflecting the changing nature of the industry,

regional yield is down 43.4 percent in real terms since 2000 (compared to a drop of 19.7 percent since 2000

for mainline yield).

U. S

. C ommercial A ir C arriers 2008 A ircra f t Fleet

The commercial passenger carrier fleet is undergoing transformation. The mainline carriers are retiring

older, less fuel efficient aircraft (e.g. 737-300/400/500 and MD-80) and replacing them with more

technologically advanced 737-700/800/900 aircraft. The regional carriers are growing their fleet of 70 to 90

seat regional jet aircraft and reducing their fleet of 50-seat jet aircraft.

The total number of aircraft in the U.S. commercial fleet (including regional carriers) is estimated at 7,274

for 2008, a decrease of 470 aircraft from 2007. This includes 3,743 mainline air carrier passenger aircraft

(over 90 seats), 949 mainline air carrier cargo aircraft, and 2,582 regional carrier aircraft (jets, turboprops,

and pistons). U . S . C O M M E R C I A L A I R C A RRI E R S

D O M E S T IC P A SS E N G E R YI E L DS

F I SC AL Y E A R S 2002 – 2 00 8

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0

2 002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200 8

Ma in li ne Re gi on al sREVENUE PER RPM (CENTS)

# 21 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

The mainline carriers’ passenger jet fleet decreased by 240 aircraft in 2008 as increases in low-cost carrier

fleets were offset by large reductions in the network carrier fleet. With the cuts in the fleet in 2008, the

mainline carrier fleet now stands at 16.6 percent below (745 aircraft) the level it was in 2000.

The mainline carrier cargo fleet shrank by 25 aircraft to 949. The regional carrier fleet fell by 205 units with

declines in both turboprop aircraft and regional jets, the first time since their introduction that the regional

jet fleet has declined in size. Despite the reduction in the regional jet fleet in 2008, since 2000, a total of

1,085 regional jets have been added to the regional carriers’ fleet while the number of turboprops and

pistons has declined by 777 aircraft.



# G eneral Av iation

According to numbers released by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), U.S.

manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 3,079 aircraft in CY 2008, 6.1 percent lower than in CY

2007, the first decrease since 2003. The turbine categories, turbojets and turboprops, were up 17.2 and

14.8 percent, respectively. Overall piston deliveries declined 17.6 percent with single-engine down 18.9

percent and the much smaller multi-engine category up 18.2 percent. Billings in CY 2008 totaled $13.4

billion, up 11.8 percent compared with 2007. U . S . C O M M E R C I A L A I R C A RRI E R S

A I RCR A F T F L E E T

C A L E NDAR YE AR S 20 02 – 2 00 8

4,02 2 4 ,0 24 3, 90 6 3, 89 8 3,983

1, 05 6 99 3 9 93 1, 00 1 1, 01 2 97 4 94 9 2,54 9 4,118

3, 74 3

2, 499 2,78 4 2, 78 7

2,58 2 2,747 2, 83 0



# 0 50 0 1, 00 0 1, 50 0 2,

00 0 2, 50 0 3,

00 0 3, 50 0 4,

00 0 4, 50 0 5,

00 0

20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 

# Ma in lin e- AC Ca rg o Re gi on al s

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

22 General aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities fell sharply in 2008. Operations at combined FAA and

contract towers declined 5.6 percent in 2008, the steepest decline in activity since 2003. General aviation

activity at consolidated traffic facilities (FAA TRACONs) fell 6.3 percent, while the number of general

aviation aircraft handled at FAA en route centers decreased by 7.6 percent.

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown and utilization from the General Aviation and Air Taxi

Activity and Avionics Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates can be

applied. This survey has been conducted annually since 1977. Beginning with the CY 2004 Survey there

were significant improvements to the survey methodology. These improvements included conducting 100

percent samples for turboprops and turbojets, all rotorcraft, all aircraft in Alaska and all aircraft operating

on-demand under Part 135. In addition, the sample design was revised to stratify by aircraft type (19

categories), FAA region (9 categories), and whether the aircraft was owned by an entity certified to fly Part

135 operations (2 categories). Furthermore, a large fleet reporting form was incorporated to allow owners/

operators of multiple aircraft to report aggregate data for their entire fleet on a single form. In 2005 an

additional aircraft category (Light Sport Aircraft) was added. The result of these changes was the sample

size nearly doubled. Between 2003 and 2005 large changes in both the number of aircraft (turbojets up by

22.8 percent, total rotorcraft up by 33.7 percent) and hours (single-engine piston down by 17.6 percent) in

many categories occurred. The results of the 2007 Survey are consistent with the results of the surveys

since 2004. This reinforces our belief the methodological improvements have resulted in superior estimates

relative to those in the past and they are used as the basis for our forecast.

Based on the latest FAA assumptions about fleet attrition and aircraft utilization and GAMA aircraft

shipment statistics, the active general aviation fleet is estimated to have increased 1.0 percent in 2008,

to 234,015. Despite the increase in the active fleet, general aviation flight hours are estimated to have

decreased 0.2 percent in 2008 to 27.8 million.

Student pilots are important to general aviation and the aviation industry as a whole. In 2008, according

to statistics compiled by the FAA’s Mike Monroney Aeronautical Center, the number of student pilots

decreased by 4.0 percent. This is the fourth consecutive year of decline in this important pilot category.

The industry has, over the past several years, maintained several industry-wide programs designed to

attract new pilots to general aviation. The industry is trying to stimulate interest in flying, but the data

suggest that more needs to be done. GE NE R A L AV IA TI ON

U. S. M A NU FA C T UR ER S SH IP M E NT S AN D BI LL I N GS

C A LE ND AR YE AR S 2002 - 2 00 8

0 500 1, 000 1, 500 2, 000 2, 500 3, 000 3, 500

20 02 2 003 2 0 04 20 05 200 6 2 00 7 2 00 8 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0 8. 0 10 .0 12 .0 14 .0

SH I P M E NT S

BI L L IN G S

So u r ce : G A M ASHIPMENTS$B

# 23 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# FAA W or k load

The combination of the extreme rise in fuel prices followed by a deteriorating economic environment

resulted in a fall in activity at FAA facilities in 2008. This continues a trend that began in 2001 with the last

economic downturn and the events of 9/11.

Total activity at combined FAA and contract tower airports totaled 58.5 million operations in 2008, down 4.3

percent from 2007 and 14.8 percent below the peak activity level recorded in 2000. Commercial activity

(the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at combined FAA and contract towers declined by 2.1 percent

in 2008. Air carrier operations were up 1.1 percent, but were offset by a 5.9 percent decline in commuter/

air taxi operations. Commercial operations are 5.2 percent lower than their peak in 2005.

Non-commercial activity (the sum of general aviation and military) at combined FAA and contract towers fell

by 5.8 percent in 2008, with general aviation activity (31.3 million) down 5.6 percent and military activity (2.5

million) down 8.4 percent. General aviation activity has declined eight of the past nine years since 1999.

At the end of 2008, non-commercial aircraft activity was 21.0 percent below the activity in 2000, having

declined each year since 2002.

The FAA pays close attention to the trends occurring at the 35 Operational Evolution Partnership (OEP)

airports. These airports are the top 35 airports in the country in terms of passenger activity (except MEM

and PIT) and account for about 75 percent of commercial passengers. Although commercial activity at the

OEP airports exceeded pre-9/11 peak activity levels in 2005, subsequent industry restructuring has resulted

in a drop in combined commercial activity at these airports since. In 2008, commercial activity at the OEP

airports fell by 1.8 percent and is 4.6 percent below pre-9/11 activity levels. Increases were recorded at

only 8 of the 35 airports with the highest rates of growth at San Francisco (up 7.1 percent) and St. Louis (up

5.2 percent). The largest declines occurred at Pittsburgh (down 22.8 percent) and Chicago-Midway (down

9.8 percent). As a result, only 17 airports exceeded 2000 peak activity levels during fiscal year 2008, down

from 18 in the previous year. A I R C R A F T A C T I V I T Y A T

C O M B I N E D F A A A N D C O N T R A C T T O W E R S

F I S C A L Y E A R S 2 0 0 2

- 2 0 0 8

4 0

. 7

3 8

. 5

3 3

. 8 3 7

. 9

3 7

. 0 3 5

. 9 3 5

. 9

2 4

. 7 2 5

. 3 2 5

. 2 2 6

. 1 2 5

. 2 2 4

. 2 2 4

. 2

0

. 0 1 0

. 0 2 0

. 0 3 0

. 0 4 0

. 0 5 0

. 0

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8

N O N

- C O M M E R C I A L C O M M E R C I A LMILLIONS

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

24 Reflecting the shift in demand to low-cost and regional carriers, commercial operations at Las V egas (up

40.7 percent), Fort Lauderdale (up 29.0 percent), and New York K ennedy (up 28.9 percent), are up the

greatest relative to their pre-September 11 th 

# activity levels. Commercial operations at Pittsburgh (down

63.2 percent) and St. Louis (down 47.7 percent) show the largest declines from pre-9/11 levels. These

activity level shifts reflect the impact of the restructuring of the airline industry. American’s acquisition

of TWA resulted in a consolidation of operations away from TWA’s St. Louis hub, while the merger of US

Airways and America West has led to a dramatic shrinking of US Airways’ operations in Pittsburgh.

During 2008, total activity at FAA en route centers (45.3 million) fell 3.1 percent from the previous year.

Commercial activity declined 1.9 percent, with air carrier operations down 4.7 percent while commuter/air

taxi operations increased 5.4 percent. Non-commercial activity was down 6.5 percent in 2008 as general

aviation and military activity fell 7.6 and 4.1 percent, respectively. In 2008, air carrier operations fell back

below their 2000 activity levels while operations for the general aviation and military user groups were 12.4

and 13 percent below their 2000 activity levels, respectively. 17 O E P AI RP O R TS E X CE ED E D

PR E- SE P TEM BE R 11 TH 

# LE VE LS DU RI NG FY 2 008

FY 200 8 VS

. FY 20 00 CO M M ER CI AL AC TI VI TY

80 90 10 0 11 0 12 0 13 0 14 0 15 0PERCENTOF FY2000 OPS



# LA S FL L JF K IA H CL T DE N SL C SAN

P H L MS P AT L ME M

L G A DC A MC O OR D MD W



# 1 8 O E P A I R P O R T S

A R E B E L O W P R E

- S E P T E M B E R 1 1 T H 

# L E V E L S

F Y 2 0 0 8 V S

. F Y 2 0 0 0 C O M M E R C I A L A C T I V I T Y

3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0PERCENT OF FY 2000 OPS



# EWR PHX HNL BWI DTW TPA SFO PDX LAX MIA IAD DFW SEA CLE BOS CVG STL PIT

# 25 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

A I R C R A F T H A N D L E D A T

F A A E N R O U T E C E N T E R S

F I S C A L Y E A R S 2 0 0 2

– 2 0 0 8

3 3

. 8 3 4

. 7 3 5

. 1 3 4

. 0 3 3

. 8

3 1

. 9 3 1

. 6

1 1

. 3 1 2

. 1 1 2

. 3 1 2

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.

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.

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.

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.

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.

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.

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.

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.

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.

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.

0

2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8



# C O M M E R C I A L N O N

- C O M M E R C I A LMILLIONS

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

26 

# FAA AEROSPACE FORECAST FISCAL YEARS

2009 – 2025

Developing forecasts of aviation demand and activity levels continues to be challenging as the aviation

industry evolves and prior relationships change. In times of amplified volatility, the process is filled with

uncertainty, particularly in the short-term. Even though the highly cyclical U.S. aviation industry moved

strongly downward at the end of 2008, history has shown the demand for air travel is resilient and growth

will return. With the start of 2009, the lingering questions are 1) how much economic recovery will be

required to jumpstart the industry back to a period of growth, and 2) when will the recovery occur?

Carriers responded proactively to two major events in 2008. During the first part of the year, carrier costs

rose as fuel prices reached record levels, peaking at $3.83 a gallon during the summer. To combat rising

costs, carriers implemented schedule cutbacks, pared international growth plans, and raised fares. By

the latter half of the year, the demand for air travel dropped as economic uncertainty accelerated. Carriers

countered the drop in air travel demand with additional schedule cuts. By the start of 2009, carriers had

executed the largest reductions in capacity during the period of post-deregulation (1978).

Given the current instability in the global economy, there is much uncertainty as to the timing and strength

of a recovery in aviation demand. While there remains large uncertainty in the operating environment, the

FAA has developed a set of assumptions and forecasts consistent with the emerging trends and structural

changes currently taking place within the aviation industry. The FAA believes these forecasts accurately

predict future aviation demand, however due to the large uncertainty of the operating environment the

variance around the forecasts is wider than in prior years.

The commercial aviation forecasts and assumptions are developed from econometric models that explain

and incorporate emerging trends for the different segments of the industry. In addition the commercial

aviation forecasts are considered unconstrained in that they assume there will be sufficient infrastructure to

handle the projected levels of activity. These forecasts do not assume further contractions of the industry

through bankruptcy, consolidation, or liquidation.

The commercial aviation forecast methodology is a blended one. The starting point for developing the

commercial aviation forecasts (air carriers and regionals) is the future schedules published in the Official

Airline Guide (OAG). To generate the short-term forecast (one year out) current monthly trends are used in

conjunction with published monthly schedules to allow FAA forecasters to develop monthly capacity and

demand forecasts for both mainline and regional carriers for fiscal and calendar year 2009. The medium to

long-term forecasts (2010-2025) are based on results of econometric models.

The general aviation forecasts rely heavily on the results of the 2007 General Aviation and Part 135 Activity

Survey and discussions with industry experts. The assumptions have been updated by FAA analysts to

reflect more recent data and developing trends, as well as further information from industry experts.

The FAA also presents the forecasts and assumptions to industry staff and aviation associations, who

are asked to comment on the reasonableness of the assumptions and forecasts. Their comments and/or

suggestions have been incorporated into the forecasts as appropriate.

# 27 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# E conomic F orecasts

The FAA uses the most recent Administration economic forecasts to project domestic aviation demand.

The FAA uses the world and individual country economic projections provided by Global Insight, Inc. to

forecast the demand for international aviation services. Annual historical data and economic forecasts are

presented in tabular form in Tables 1 through 4. Projections for the U.S. economy are presented on a U.S.

government fiscal year (October through September) basis. International forecasts are presented on a

calendar year basis.

Recently, the National Bureau of Economic Research (www.nber.org), the official arbiter of business cycle

dating, announced that the US economy entered into recession in December 2007. As the number of

unemployed workers rose, there was little doubt that the US economy entered into recession together

with partner economies from the other side of the Atlantic and around the world. Further confirmation was

provided when the Bureau of Economic Analysis (www.bea.gov) reported that U.S. real gross domestic

product (GDP) fell at an annual rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of CY 2008, the second consecutive

quarterly decline in real GDP.

The question now is how long the recession will continue. While history may be a guide, every recession

has its own character. On average, the recessions since the end of World War II averaged 10 months in

duration. Unlike the recession of 1981-82 the US economy is not facing an inflationary environment and

high interest rates. In comparison to recession of 1973-74, today, the economy does not face a high

energy cost environment either. The job losses from the beginning of the recession in December 2007 to

January 2009 have totaled 3.8 million. Furthermore, job losses have accelerated in the last three months.

With a further contraction of the economy projected this year, unemployment is expected to rise above 8

percent, a 3 point increase over the long-term trend. As it stands now, this recession is one of the most

severe downturns since the end of World War II.

Against this backdrop, there is great deal of uncertainty as to the future direction of the US and the global

economy. Although, the US economy is undergoing significant structural changes, particularly in the

housing and banking sectors as the true prices of assets are being revealed, the combination of the nearly

$800 billion fiscal stimulus package and the aggressive monetary policies that have been undertaken, and

are expected to continue, is projected to lead the economy out of the recession in the second half of 2009.

The latest set of economic forecasts from the Administration calls for the U.S. recession to end by the 3Q in

FY 2009 followed by a relatively modest recovery over the next six quarters. On a quarter-by-quarter basis

U.S. economic growth is projected over the next two years to range from a low of -4.3 percent in 2Q FY

2009 to a high of 3.8 percent in 3Q FY 2010.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

28 Between 2010 and 2013, U.S. economic growth is projected to be above trend (3.8 percent) with rates

ranging between 2.4 and 4.5 percent. Beyond 2013 through the balance of the forecast period, U.S.

economic growth is projected to slow to around 2.6 percent per year. The major risk is that the financial

crisis worsens resulting in further reductions in lending, leading to reduced consumer spending, weaker

business investment, and slower worldwide economic growth.

Oil prices, as measured by Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, are projected by Global Insight (January 2009 US

Economic Outlook) to fall almost 65 percent in 2009 after more than tripling since 2004. Oil prices are then

projected to increase steadily to 2014 before falling gradually to 2018 as increased supplies come on line.

After 2018 oil prices are assumed increase at the rate of inflation for the balance of the forecast period. U

. S

. G R O S S D O M E S T I C P R O D U C T

S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D A N N U A L G R O W T H

F Y 2 0 0 9 A N D 2 0 1 0 B Y Q U A R T E R

( 0

. 2 ) 3

. 6 3

. 8

3

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- 6

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. 0 0

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- 0 3

F i s c a l Y e a r 2 0 0 9 F i s c a l Y e a r 2 0 1 0ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH



# U

. S

. G R O S S D O M E S T I C P R O D U C T

2 0 0 8

- 2 0 2 5

3

. 8

2

. 6 2

. 6 2

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. 0 3

. 0 4

. 0 5

. 0ANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH



# 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

# 29 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

The inflation rate (as measured by the CPI) is expected to fall 0.4 percent in 2009, after rising 4.4 percent

in 2008. The fall in the CPI in 2009 is mostly attributed to the decline in energy prices. As the economy

recovers and growth resumes, consumer price inflation is expected to rise slowly until 2012 and then level

off at 2.1 percent a year for the balance of the forecast.

W orld E co n om y

Worldwide economic activity is predicted by Global Insight to shrink by 0.7 percent in 2009, marking the

first contraction in global GDP since the Great Depression. The advanced economies (U.S., Canada,

Europe, and Japan) are all projected to post declines in output ranging from -1.5 percent to -2.9 percent.

The emerging market economies are projected to grow 2.8 percent, 3.0 points below what they grew in

2008. Many emerging market economies will post declines in real GDP including Mexico, Singapore,

Taiwan, Hong K ong, Israel, Turkey, and Ukraine. In 2010, growth is projected to resume (2.4 percent) as

stimulus plans in the U.S. and in China provide the basis for recovery. Recovery in Europe is projected to

be more gradual than in the U.S. as the housing market corrections have come later and policy actions are

more cautious. Beyond 2010 through the balance of the forecast period, world real GDP is projected to

increase an average of 3.3 percent per year. R E FI NE RS ’ A C Q UI SI T I ON C O ST

PE R C EN T C H AN GE FI SC AL YE AR S 20 08 - 2 02 5

(6 4. 5) 5. 9 67 .6

-8 0. 0 -6 0. 0 -4 0. 0 -2 0. 0

0. 0 20 .0 40 .0 60 .0 80 .0

20 08 20 09 20 09 -2 5ANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

30 The Asia/Pacific and Latin America regions will continue to have the world’s highest economic growth

rates. These regions are expected to see their economic activity grow at annual rates of 4.4 and 3.7 percent

a year, respectively, over the forecast period. In Asia, China, with a population of 1.3 billion, is forecast to

grow 7.7 percent a year, becoming the world’s second largest economy. India, with a population of 1.2

billion, is projected to see its GDP triple in size, growing at an average rate of 6.6 percent a year during the

forecast period. Canadian and European GDP growth is anticipated to rise at more moderate rates of 2.4

and 1.8 percent a year, respectively, over the forecast period.



# Av iation T raffic and A cti v ity F orecasts

Total traffic and activity forecasts for commercial air carriers (the sum of mainline and regional carriers) are

contained in Tables 5 through 9. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and forecasts.

Mainline air carrier traffic and activity forecasts and the forecast assumptions are contained in Tables 10

through 18, 20, and 22. These tables contain year-to-year historical data and forecasts.

Regional carrier forecasts and assumptions are found in Tables 23 through 26. These tables provide yearto-year historical and forecast data.

Table 19 provides year-to-year historical and forecast data for cargo activity. Table 21 provides year-toyear historical and forecast data for the cargo jet fleet.

General aviation forecasts are found in Tables 27 through 30. These tables provide year-to-year historical

data and forecasts.

Tables 31 through 33 provide forecasts of aircraft activity at FAA and contract facilities. G R O S S D O M E S T I C P R O D U C T

B Y W O R L D R E G I O N

C A L E N D A R Y E A R S 2 0 0 8

- 2 0 2 5

( 1

. 3 ) 2

. 4

1

. 7 3

. 9 3

. 9

0

. 8 3

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( 0

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. 0 0

. 0 2

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2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 0 9

- 2 5



# E u

r o p e L a t i n A m

e r i c a P a c i f i c C a n a d a W o r l dANNUAL PERCENT GROWTH

# 31 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

C ommercial A viatio n Forecasts

Mainline and regional carrier capacity and demand are forecast to fall sharply in 2009. System capacity

is projected to shrink 6.7 percent in 2009, with mainline carrier domestic market capacity declining 9.5

percent, signaling the largest reduction in domestic mainline capacity since deregulation of the industry

in 1978. Also shrinking (after a decade of average annual capacity growth in the double digits, but only

averaging 3.0 percent growth for the last three years), are the regional carriers. Capacity for this group

of carriers falls considerably from 2008 levels, down 5.5 percent domestically. In the international sector,

slow to moderate capacity growth is forecast in the Atlantic and Latin market, as growth in the Pacific

market shrinks. Mainline carrier system capacity drops 1.0 percent, while regional carrier capacity falls 4.3

percent.

Passenger demand contracts in 2009 with system RPMs forecast to decline 7.1 percent (down 7.2 percent

and 5.9 percent for mainline and regional carriers, respectively) as passenger enplanements drop 7.3

percent (down 8.0 percent for mainline carriers and 4.5 percent for regional carriers). Growth is projected

to return in 2010 with system RPMs and passengers increasing 2.8 and 2.0 percent, respectively, on a

capacity increase of 2.6 percent. For the overall forecast period, system capacity is projected to increase

an average of 3.1 percent a year. Supported by a growing U.S. economy and falling real yields, system

RPMs are projected to increase 3.1 percent a year, with regional carriers (4.8 percent a year) growing faster

than mainline carriers (3.0 percent a year). System passengers are projected to increase an average of

2.2 percent a year, with regional carriers growing faster than mainline carriers (3.2 versus 2.0 percent a

year). By 2025, U.S. commercial air carriers are projected to fly 1.7 trillion ASMs and transport 1.1 billion

enplaned passengers a total of 1.4 trillion passenger miles. Planes will remain crowded, with load factor

projected to peak at 81.1 by 2016, and slowly fall thereafter to land at 79.9 percent in 2025. Passenger trip

length is also forecast to increase by more than 180 miles over the forecast to 1,272.7 miles (up 10.6 miles

annually). The growth in passenger trip length reflects the faster growth in the relatively longer international

and domestic trips as compared to shorter-haul flights.

U. S. CO M M ER C I AL AI R C A R R IE R S

SY ST EM EN PL ANEM EN TS

FI SC AL YE AR S 20 08 - 2 02 5

0 25 0 50 0 75 0 1, 00 0 1, 25 0

20 08 2 0 1 0 201 2 2 01 4 2 01 6 2 01 8 2 02 0 2 02 2 2 02 4



# MA IN LI NE RE GI ON AL SMILLIONS ofPASSENGERS

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

32 D omestic M arkets

After a minimal decline in domestic capacity during FY 2008, capacity in FY 2009 is projected to fall

dramatically, down 9.0 percent. Mainline carrier capacity drops 9.5 percent following a decline of 1.2

percent in 2008, as these carriers continue to optimize operations in an environment of uncertainty. An

indicator of the harshness of the operating environment for FY 2009 is the 5.5 percent drop in capacity

forecast for the regional carriers. FY 2009 marks the first year in the post-9/11 era that regional carriers

have cut capacity (in comparison, the mainline carriers have cut capacity four years between 2001 and

2008). Domestic commercial carrier capacity recovers modestly in 2010 (up 2.5 percent) with mainline

carriers growing slower than regional carriers, 2.2 percent versus 4.2 percent, respectively, and then

increases at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent for the balance of the forecast (2010-2025). For the

entire forecast period (2008–2025), domestic capacity is projected to increase at an average annual rate of

2.6 percent, just slightly slower than economic growth, with mainline carriers growing slower (2.2 percent

per year) than the regional carriers (4.6 percent per year).

The recession in the U.S. inhibits RPM growth during the first year of the forecast (down 8.9 percent),

with the deepest declines in traffic projected to occur in the first half of the year. Mainline carrier RPMs

are projected to contract 9.3 percent during 2009, while regional carrier RPMs fall 5.9 percent. By 2010,

as the U.S. economy begins to recover, traffic growth returns with RPMs growing 2.7 percent. Driven by

continued economic growth and falling real yields, domestic RPM growth for the remainder of the forecast

(2010-2025), averages 3.4 percent per year. For the overall forecast period (2008-2025) domestic RPMs

are projected to grow an average of 2.6 percent a year, Mainline carriers throughout the forecast period are

projected to grow slower than the regional carriers (averaging 2.3 versus 4.6 percent a year, respectively).

Enplanements are forecast to drop 7.8 percent in 2009, following a 1.5 percent decline in 2008. Similar to

RPMs, passenger volume is expected to grow in 2010 (up 2.0 percent) with the rebounding economy, and

then grow at an average rate of 2.7 percent per year for the period 2010-2025. Over the entire forecast

period, domestic enplanements are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent with

mainline carriers growing slower than regional carriers (1.7 versus 3.0 percent a year, respectively). U.S. C O MME RCI A L A I R C A R R IE R S

D O M E S T IC A S M S

2008 - 2 02 5

(1 .2 ) 3. 0

(9 .5 ) (5 .5 ) 5. 2 5. 3

-1 2. 0 -8 .0 -4 .0 0. 0 4. 0 8. 0

200 8 2 00 9 2 009 -2 5



# Ma in li ne Re gi on al sAnnual Percent Growth

# 33 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

On the heels of a 0.7 percent increase (down 1.6 percent in real terms) in 2007, nominal mainline carrier

domestic passenger yield rose 5.2 percent (0.7 percent increase in real terms) in 2008. Decisive capacity

cutbacks in the face of rising fuel prices coupled with rapid and widespread incorporation of fuel

surcharges helped carriers maintain pricing power during 2008 despite weakening demand. Despite the

significant capacity reductions, the decline in demand will spur carriers to lower prices in 2009, resulting in

a nominal yield decrease of 1.6 percent (1.4 percent in real terms). For the entire forecast period, increases

in nominal yields are projected to grow at a rate of 0.6 percent a year, while in real terms they are projected

to decline an average of 1.2 percent a year. The decline in real yields over the forecast period assumes

competition between carriers and convergence of cost structures between network carriers and their

low-cost counterparts. The convergence arises from gains in productivity as network carriers retire fuel

inefficient aircraft and reduce labor costs while low-cost carriers contend with aging fleets, maturing work

forces, and unionization.

Domestic commercial carrier activity (departures) at FAA air traffic facilities is projected to grow slower

than passenger traffic over the forecast period (1.4 percent per year for departures versus 2.6 percent for

RPMs). This reflects increased carrier efficiencies in three operational measures—aircraft size, load factor,

and trip length.

Domestic aircraft size 12 

# increased in 2008 by 0.4 seats to 120.8 seats. The increase was partly driven by

an unprecedented jump in aircraft size by the regional carriers (up 2.9 seats) and the grounding of older,

fuel inefficient aircraft (i.e. MD-80’s and 737-300/400/500) by the mainline carriers. The increase in regional

aircraft size was caused by the retirement of 50-seat jet aircraft as larger 70-90 seat jet aircraft entered the

fleet. Domestic seats per aircraft falls in 2009 (down 0.7 seats) as mainline carriers shrink capacity faster

than their regional counterparts and then gradually increases over the balance of the forecast to 122.1

seats by 2025. For the entire forecast period, domestic seats increase an average 0.1 seats per year.

The FAA’s projection of domestic carrier average aircraft size is greatly influenced by carrier fleet plans,

publicly known aircraft order books and FAA’s expectations of the changing domestic competitive

landscape. In the near-term (through 2012), the forecast incorporates several carrier assumptions: U.S. C O MME RCI A L A I R C A R R IE R S

D O M E S T IC R P M S

2008 - 2 02 5

(1 .5 ) 3. 1

(9 .3 ) (5 .9 ) 5. 2

2. 7

-1 2. 0 -8 .0 -4 .0 0. 0 4. 0 8. 0

200 8 2 009 2009- 25



# Ma in li ne R e gi on al sAnnual Percent Growth



# 12 Defined as seats per mile flown and computed by dividing ASMs by miles flown.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

34 1) mainline carriers desire to constrain ASM capacity growth; 2) network carrier “own metal” service on

longer-haul routes; 3) the retirement of older inefficient aircraft (many of which are narrow-body); 4) the

shifting of wide-body and larger narrow-body aircraft to international services, and 5) growing use of 70-90

seat regional jet aircraft.

In the longer-term, network carriers will replace their wide-body and larger narrow-body aircraft in their

domestic route networks with smaller, next generation, narrow-body aircraft. In addition, some carriers,

such as JetBlue and US Airways, are turning to smaller aircraft, like the 100-seat Embraer 190, to

supplement their route structure. The use of smaller narrow-body aircraft allows mainline carriers to better

serve their customers by boosting frequency, as well as improve profitability by more closely matching

supply (the number of seats) with demand (the number of passengers).

Mainline carrier domestic aircraft size decreased in 2008 by 0.6 seats to 150.0 seats, and is projected to

fall an additional 0.8 seats in 2009. Domestic aircraft size for mainline carriers is projected to fall to 148.4

seats by 2014 and then gradually increase thereafter for the balance of the forecast. Overall, average

aircraft size for the mainline group will increase by only one seat between 2008 and 2025, going from 150.0

to 151.0 seats.

While mainline carriers have been reducing the size of aircraft flown domestically, regional carriers have

been increasing their aircraft size. The most visible example of this trend is the wave of 70-90 seat regional

jet aircraft that are entering the fleet. Regional carriers are better equipped to support operations of their

mainline partners by providing capacity that complements market demand. The greater number of the

larger 70- and 90-seat regional jets in the fleet coupled with significant 50-seat jet retirements over the next

few years increases the average seating capacity of the regional fleet from 52.8 seats in 2008 to 54.6 seats

by 2010. Over the course of the forecast, average seats per aircraft for the regional carriers increases by

0.8 seats per year to 65.6 seats in 2025. The changing aircraft fleet mix is narrowing the gap between the

size and aircraft types operated by the mainline and regional carriers.

Commercial carrier domestic load factor fell 0.5 points from the all-time high posted in 2007 to 79.3 percent

in 2008. The load factor for mainline and regional carriers fell 0.2 and 1.8 points, respectively. In 2009,

domestic load factor is forecast to increase 0.1 points to 79.4 percent as mainline load factor rises 0.1

points and regional load factor falls 0.3 points. Thereafter, domestic load factor rises, peaking in 2017 at

81.7 percent, and then declines gradually for the remainder of the forecast to 80.1 percent in 2025.

In 2008 domestic passenger trip length increased 4.4 miles to 874.6 miles, after falling 1.2 miles in 2007.

Domestic passenger trip length is forecast to decline in 2009 by 10.5 miles as carriers continue to restructure

their networks and realign capacity. After 2009, trip length is projected to steadily increase for the balance of

the forecast, reaching 970.2 miles by 2025. The increase in trip length reflects increases in both mainline and

regional carrier trip length. Mainline carrier trip length increases due to the transfer of shorter haul routes to

regional partners and increased flying of longer domestic trips. Regional carrier trip length increases with the

larger 70 and 90-seat regional jets allowing these carriers to service longer haul markets.

Another key factor in predicting aviation activity relative to passenger demand is the level of connecting

versus non-stop (origin-destination) traffic. However, as the current cycle of U.S. airline industry

restructuring unfolds and hub structures change, the impact on local communities and airport activity levels

can vary significantly.

# 35 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

The FAA analyzes the ratio of passenger enplanements to origin-destination (O&D) passengers over time

to identify changes in connecting versus non-stop traffic. This ratio is an indicator of the tendency of the

average passenger to connect during a typical journey. The closer the ratio is to 1.0, the more passengers

fly on a point-to-point routing. As the chart below shows, the overall ratio for the U.S. domestic industry

varied within a narrow band between 1995 and 2002, but has been decreasing since then. The decline

in the ratio since 2002 has been due to a decline in the network carrier connectivity coupled with the

increasing passenger share of the low-cost carriers during this time. In general, the low cost carriers have

lower connectivity ratios than do the network carriers, however since 2004 the low-cost carrier connectivity

ratio has been increasing. In FY 2008, the respective connectivity ratios of the network and low-cost

carriers were the closest to each other since FY 1999. The FAA’s forecast recognizes the changing pattern

of domestic traffic connectivity and the relative mix of network versus low-cost carrier traffic volumes.

These trends are captured in the forecast’s passenger enplanement totals.

I nternational M arkets

U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers

FAA provides forecasts of total international passenger demand (the sum of U.S. and foreign flag carriers)

for travel between the United States and three world travel areas--Atlantic, Latin America (including Mexico

and the Caribbean), and Asia/Pacific--as well as for U.S./Canadian transborder traffic. These forecasts are

based on historical passenger statistics from the United States Immigration and Naturalization Services

(INS) and Transport Canada, and on regional world historical data and economic projections from Global

Insight, Inc.

Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest of the world is estimated to total 153.9

million in CY 2008, 2.8 percent higher than in 2007. The worldwide recession drives international

passengers down 0.9 percent in 2009 but a rebound in economic growth leads to a 4.2 percent growth in

passengers in 2010. For the balance of the forecast period, stable worldwide economic growth leads to

international passenger growth averaging 4.6 percent a year, and totaling 310.0 million in 2025. U. S. CO M M ER C I AL C A RR IE RS

DO M E ST IC EN PL AN EM EN T S PE R OD PA X

19 95 -2 00 8

1. 37 1 . 3 7 1. 38 1 . 3 7

1. 36 1 . 3 6 1 . 38

1. 35

1 . 34

1. 3 2 1 . 32

1. 3 0 1 . 3 8 1. 38



# 1. 20 1. 25 1. 30 1. 35 1. 40 1. 45

So u r ces: D O T T 1 00 and O & D Su r v ey 1995 1996 19 9 7 19 9 8 1999 2000 2001 2002

2 003

2 004 200 5 2006 200 7

2008E

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

36 Over the entire forecast period (2008-2025), high economic growth in the Asia-Pacific market drives

passenger growth averaging 5.2 percent a year for this region. China, India, and Taiwan (passenger growth

of 11.8, 7.9, and 7.6 percent a year, respectively) are forecast to be the fastest growing markets in the

region. Growth in the Japan market (the largest and most mature in the region) is projected to be well

below the regional average at 2.0 percent a year.

In the Atlantic region, open skies between the European Union and the United States and increasing nonstop service to Africa and the Middle East helps to fuel passenger growth of 4.0 percent a year over the

forecast period, however the global recession tempers growth during the early years of the forecast period.

Over the 17-year forecast horizon, average annual passenger growth in the top three Atlantic markets, the

United K ingdom, Germany, and France, is 3.7, 3.1, and 3.7 percent, respectively.

In the Latin America region, passenger growth between 2008 and 2025 is forecast to average 4.3 percent

a year. The highest growth is projected for Brazil (average annual growth of 5.5 percent) while the largest

market in the region, Mexico, grows at an average of 4.3 percent a year. The slowest rates of growth are

projected to occur in the Bahamian and Jamaica markets (averaging growth of 0.1 and 2.3 percent a year,

respectively).

Growth in the Canadian transborder market is forecast to be higher than that of the domestic U.S. market

(2.0 percent), averaging 3.2 percent a year over the forecast period.

U.S. Flag Air Carriers

In 2008, international U.S. commercial air carrier capacity grew 5.8 percent. In 2009, capacity contracts

(down 1.0 percent) as the global economic slowdown enters its second year. Despite the first full year of

“open skies” between the United States and the European Union, capacity in the Atlantic market increases

only 1.0 percent, due to the recessions in the U.S. and Europe. During the same period, capacity in the

Latin region grows 2.4 percent, while declining 8.1 percent in the Pacific region. With a slow recovery in

the global economies expected during 2010, international capacity grows modestly at 2.9 percent, and

averages 4.8 percent a year for the remainder of the forecast period. Strong growth in the medium to longterm portion of the forecast reflects favorable U.S. and world economic activity. U . S. & F O R E I G N F L A G C A RRI E R S

P A SS E N G E RS T O /F R O M T H E U . S.

2 008 - 2 02 5

4. 0 4. 3 5. 2

3. 2

0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0

At la n t ic L a ti n A m er ic a A si a / P a ci fi c C a n a d a

T r a n sb or d e rAVERAGEANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# 37 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

U.S. commercial air carrier international RPMs increased 5.3 percent in 2008 and enplanements increased

3.3 percent. RPMs are projected to shrink in 2009 (down 2.5 percent), reflecting the slow down in the

global economy. In 2010, U.S. carrier international RPMs increase 3.0 percent led by growth in the Atlantic

(up 5.0 percent) and Latin markets (up 1.9 percent). For the balance of the forecast, RPMs increase an

average 4.9 percent a year with the fastest growth in the Latin region. A similar pattern is forecast for

enplanement growth. International enplanements are projected to drop 2.5 percent in 2009, and then grow

2.4 percent in 2010. Over the balance of the forecast period, enplanements are forecast to increase an

average of 4.4 percent a year with the fastest growth in Pacific and Latin markets (up 4.9 and 4.6 percent a

year, respectively).

The slower growth in U.S. carrier international passengers over the period 2008-2025 (3.9 percent a year)

compared to total international passengers (4.2 percent a year) reflects a small decline in market share

for U.S. airlines over the forecast period. Forecasts of international demand assume U.S. and foreign flag

carriers will benefit from the favorable economic activity in both the United States and world markets. U. S. C O M M ER C I AL AI R CA R R IE R S

IN T E RN AT I O NA L AS M S

20 08 - 2 02 5

5. 8

1. 0 11 .4

4. 2

0. 9 2 . 2 5. 4

4. 7

1. 1

(8 .1 ) (1 .0 ) 4. 7

-1 0. 0 -5 .0 0. 0 5. 0 10 .0 15 .0

2 0 0 8 20 09 20 09 -2 5



# At la nt ic L a ti n P a ci fi c To ta lAnnual Percent Growth



# U. S. C O M M ER C I AL AI R CA R R IE R S

IN TER NA TI O N AL R P M S

20 08 - 2 02 5

4. 3

(1 .5 ) 10 .4

5. 4

0. 3 4. 0

(7 .2 ) 4. 8

(1 .7 ) 5. 3

(2 .5 ) 4 . 7

-9 .0 -6 .0 -3 .0 0 . 0 3 . 0 6 . 0 9 . 0 12 .0

2 008 20 0 9 20 09 -2 5



# At la nt ic L a ti n Pa ci fi c To ta lANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

38 International load factor for U.S. commercial carriers was 79.9 percent in 2008. Load factor is expected to

fall to 78.7 percent in 2009 as capcity growth exceeds growth of traffic in the Atlantic and Latin markets.

International load factor is projected to be flat in 2010, and then slowly rise for the remainder of the

forecast to be 79.7 percent in 2025.

International passenger real yields for mainline carriers were up 2.8 percent in 2008. The largest increase

was in the Pacific market (up 5.0 percent), and followed by the Atlantic (up 2.1 percent) and Latin market

(up 1.6 percent), reflecting pricing power U.S. carriers command for travel in the international region.

International real yields are projected to decline by 0.9 percent in 2009 and decrease an average 1.0

percent a year over the balance of the forecast. In nominal terms, international yields are forecast to

decrease 1.1 percent in 2009, and then increase at an annual rate of 1.1 percent over the forecast. The

decline in real yields assumes competitive pressures will continue to exert pressure on carriers to hold the

line on fare increases. In international markets, this takes the form of expanded open sky agreements and

new and existing global alliances.

C ommercial A ir C arriers — A ir C argo

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that have affected the growth in air

cargo traffic include declining real yields, improved productivity, and globalization. Significant structural

changes have occurred in the air cargo industry. Among these changes are the following: air cargo security

regulations by the FAA and TSA; market maturation of the domestic express market; modal shift from air

to other modes (especially truck); increases in air fuel surcharges; growth in international trade from open

skies agreements; use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail; and

increased use of mail substitutes (e.g., e-mail).

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the cargo

industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, most of

the shift from air to ground transportation has occurred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will be tied to

economic growth.

The forecasts of RTMs were based mainly on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of domestic

cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the primary driver. Projections of international cargo

RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The distribution of RTMs between

passenger carriers and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis of historic trends in shares,

changes in industry structure and market assumptions.

Total RTMs are forecast to go down 7.6 percent in 2009 and grow 4.1 percent in 2010. For the balance of

the forecast period, driven by steady economic growth, total RTMs are forecast to increase at an average

annual rate of 5.1 percent. The forecast of 78.6 billion RTMs in 2025 represents an average annual increase

of 4.2 percent over the entire forecast period.

Domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to drop 8.3 percent in 2009 and then grow slowly in 2010, 2.5 percent,

driven by growth in the U.S. economy. Between 2010 and 2025, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to

increase at an average annual rate of 2.4 percent. The forecast of 19.3 billion RTMs in 2025 represents an

average annual increase of 1.8 percent over the entire forecast period.

# 39 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

The freight/express segment of domestic air cargo is highly correlated with capital spending. Thus, the

growth of this segment in the future will be tied to growth in the economy. The mail segment of domestic

air cargo will be affected by price and substitution (electronic mail).

The all-cargo carriers have increased their share of domestic cargo RTMs flown from 65.4 percent in 1997

to 85.0 percent in 2008. This is because of significant growth in express service by FedEx and United

Parcel Service coupled with a lack of growth of domestic freight/express business for passenger carriers.

The all-cargo share is forecast to increase to 88.4 percent by 2025 based on increases in wide-body

capacity for all-cargo carriers and security considerations.

International cargo RTMs are forecast to fall 7.2 percent in 2009 reflecting the impact of the global

economic downturn and grow 5.0 percent in 2010 as world economic growth rebounds and trade expands.

For the balance of the forecast period, international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average of 6.2

percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP. The forecast 59.3 billion RTMs in 2025 represents

an average annual increase of 5.3 percent over the entire forecast period.

All-cargo carriers share of international cargo RTMs flown decreased from 66.8 percent in 2007 to 63.3

percent in 2008. The decrease is due to the reduction in capacity resulting from the bankruptcy of three

all-cargo carriers. Beyond 2009, the all-cargo share of RTMs flown is forecast to increase to 68.4 percent

by 2025.

C ommercial A ircra f t Fleet

The number of commercial aircraft is forecast to grow from 7,274 in 2008 to 9,840 in 2025, an average

annual growth rate of 1.8 percent or 151 aircraft annually. The commercial fleet is projected to shrink by a

net 637 aircraft in 2009 after shrinking by 470 aircraft in 2008 as record high fuel prices compelled carriers

to prune their fleets. In comparison, the US commercial fleet shrank by 262 aircraft between 2000 and

2003 during the last downturn in aviation. U . S . C O M M E R C I A L A I R C A RRI E R S

R T M S 200 8 - 2 02 5

2. 4

(9 .5 ) (8 .3 ) (7 .2 ) 1. 7 6. 1

- 

# 12 .0 -8 .0 -4 .0 0. 0 4. 0 8. 0

200 8 2 009 2009- 25

D o m e st ic I n t e r n a t io n a lANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

40 The number of passenger jets in the mainline carrier fleet decreased by 240 aircraft in 2008 and is expected

to fall another 378 aircraft in 2009 before increasing in 2010 by 222 aircraft. For the period 2009-2025,

the mainline air carrier passenger fleet increases an average of 116 aircraft a year, totaling 5,223 aircraft

in 2025. The narrow-body fleet (including E-190’s at JetBlue and US Airways) is projected to grow by 86

aircraft annually over the period 2009-2025; the wide-body fleet grows by 30 aircraft a year as the Boeing

787 and Airbus A350’s enter the fleet.

The regional carrier passenger fleet is forecast to decrease by 253 aircraft in 2009. After 2009, the regional

carrier fleet is expected to increase by an average of 44 aircraft (1.7 percent) over the remaining years

of the forecast period, totaling 3,033 aircraft in 2025. The number of regional jets (90 seats or fewer) at

regional carriers is projected to grow from 1,655 in 2008 to 2,249 in 2025, an average annual increase of 1.8

percent. All the growth in regional jets over the forecast period occurs in the larger 70 and 90-seat aircraft.

During the forecast period, 1,160 regional jets of 50 or less seats are removed from the fleet, reflecting the

relaxation of scope clauses. The turboprop/piston fleet is expected to decline from 927 in 2008 to 784 in

2025. Turboprop/piston aircraft are expected to account for just 25.8 percent of the regional fleet in 2025,

down from a 35.9 percent share in 2008.

Cargo large jet aircraft are forecast to increase by just 6 aircraft over the next 2 years (from 949 to 955

aircraft in 2010), and total 1,584 aircraft in 2025. The narrow-body jet fleet is projected to increase by 11

aircraft a year over the 16-year forecast period as older 757’s and 737’s are converted to cargo service.

The wide-body jet fleet is projected to increase by 29 aircraft yearly.

G e n eral A viatio n

The FAA forecasts the fleet and hours flown for single-engine piston aircraft, multi-engine piston,

turboprops, turbojets, rotorcraft (piston, turbine), sport, experiment and other (glider, balloon). The FAA

forecasts “active aircraft,” 13 

# not total aircraft. The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and

utilization from the General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity and Avionics Survey (GA Survey) as baseline

13 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year. U. S. C O MME RCI A L A I R C R A F T F L E E T

C A LEN DAR Y E AR S 2008 – 2 02 5

(6 .0 )

(1 0.1) (9 .8 ) 2. 8

(0 .6 ) 3. 3

(2 .6 )

(7 .4 ) 1. 7

-1 2.

0 -1 0.

0 -8 .0 -6 .0 -4 .0 -2 .0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0 6. 0

20 08 20 09 20 09 -2 02 5



# MA IN

LI NE -A C CA RG O RE GI ON ALANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# 41 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

figures upon which assumed growth rates can be applied. Beginning with the 2004 GA Survey there

were significant improvements to the survey methodology. At the same time the survey methodology

changed, large changes in both the number of aircraft and hours in many categories occurred. The results

of the 2007 Survey are consistent with the results of the surveys since 2004 reinforcing our belief that the

methodological improvements have resulted in superior estimates relative to those in the past. Thus, they

are used as the basis for our forecast. Because the Survey is on a calendar year basis, the 2007 statistics

are the latest available. Figures for 2008 are estimated based on other activity indicators and the forecasts

of activity begin in 2009 and continue through 2025.

As the demand for business jets has grown over the past several years, the current forecast assumes that

business use of general aviation aircraft will expand at a more rapid pace than that for personal/sport use.

In addition, corporate safety/security concerns for corporate staff, combined with increasing flight delays at

some U.S. airports have made fractional, corporate, and on-demand charter flights practical alternatives to

travel on commercial flights.

The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.0 percent over the

17-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 234,015 in 2008 to 275,230 aircraft by 2025. The more

expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow at an average

of 3.2 percent a year over the forecast period with the turbine jet fleet increasing at 4.8 percent a year.

As recently as 2007, industry experts suggested the market for new V ery Light Jets ( V LJs) could add 500

aircraft a year to the active fleet by 2010. The relatively inexpensive twin-engine V LJs (priced between

$1 and $2 million) were believed by many to have the potential to redefine the business jet segment by

expanding business jet flying and offering performance that could support a true on-demand air-taxi

business service. However events since that time have dampened expectations for a rapid penetration

of V LJs into the market, most notably the bankruptcy of Eclipse and the demise of DayJet. In 2008, V LJ

deliveries fell short of our assumption (262 vs. 400). Despite the challenging economy and the uncertainty

surrounding the future of Eclipse, the forecast assumes that about 200 V LJs will enter the active fleet in

U.S. over the next 2 years and then increase to a rate of 270 to 300 aircraft a year for the balance of the

forecast, totaling 4,875 aircraft by 2025. AC TI VE G E NE R A L AV IA TI O N AI R CRA F T

C A LE N DAR YE AR S 2008 – 2 02 5

0. 9 5. 4

1. 0 1. 0 3. 1 4. 6

0. 0 1. 0 2. 0 3. 0 4. 0 5. 0 6. 0

20 08 20 09 20 09 -2 02 5

TO T A L T U R B I N E SANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

42 The number of active piston-powered aircraft (including rotorcraft) is projected to decrease from the

2007 total of 169,675 through 2013 as declines in both single and multi-engine aircraft are forecast.

Beyond 2013 active piston-powered aircraft are forecast to increase gradually to 170,475 by 2025. Over

the forecast period, the average annual increase in piston-powered aircraft is 0.1 percent. Although

piston rotorcraft are projected to increase rapidly (3.9 percent a year) they are a relatively small part of

this segment of general aviation aircraft. Single-engine fixed-wing piston aircraft, which are much more

numerous, are projected to grow at much slower rates (0.1 percent respectively) while multi-engine fixed

wing piston aircraft are projected to decline 1.0 percent a year. In addition, it is assumed that V LJs and

new light sport aircraft could erode the replacement market for traditional piston aircraft at the high and low

ends of the market respectively.

Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not included in the FAA’s aircraft registry counts)

was created: “light sport” aircraft. At the end of 2007 a total of 6,066 aircraft were estimated to be in

this category. The forecast assumes the fleet will increase approximately 930 aircraft per year until 2013

including both newly built aircraft and conversions from ultralight trainers. Thereafter the rate of increase

in the fleet tapers considerably to about 300 per year. By 2025 a total of 15,865 light sport aircraft are

projected to be in the fleet.

The number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase by 1.8 percent yearly over the forecast

period. Much of the increase reflects increased flying by business and corporate aircraft as well as steady

if relatively small annual percentage increases in utilization rates for piston aircraft. Hours flown by turbine

aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 3.6 percent yearly over the forecast period, compared

with 0.4 percent for piston-powered aircraft. Jet aircraft are forecast to account for most of the increase,

with hours flown expanding at an average annual rate of 5.2 percent over the forecast period. The large

increases in jet hours result mainly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet, including increases

in the fractional ownership fleet and its activity levels. Fractional ownership aircraft fly about 800 hours

annually compared to approximately 380 hours for all business jets in all applications.

Previous forecasts of very light jets ( V LJs) activity had assumed that a thriving on demand air taxi industry

would occur over the course of the forecast. Because it was expected that V LJs would be used much

differently than traditional turbojets, the FAA made separate assumptions for traditional turbojets and V LJs.

In light of the events of the past year for V LJs and the on-demand air taxi market (bankruptcy of Eclipse

and DayJet), FAA has revised its expectations downward about the size and scope of an on-demand air

taxi industry using V LJs. V LJ aircraft that are used in an air taxi or shared ownership are expected to

average approximately 470 hours per year while private use operators will average approximately 385. By

2025 the annual utilization rate for all V LJs is forecast to be 432 hours. Traditional (non- V LJ) turbojets are

expected to average approximately 368 hours per year by 2025, as V LJs are expected to have a greater

share of their use in on-demand air taxi and shared ownership than the traditional turbojets.

# 43 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding air transport pilots) is projected to be 509,900 in

2025, an increase of almost 42,000 (up 0.5 percent yearly) over the forecast period. Commercial pilots

are projected to increase from 124,746 in 2008 to 138,700 in 2025, an average annual increase of 0.6

percent. The number of student pilots is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 0.4 percent over

the forecast period, growing from 80,989 in 2008 to 86,600 in 2025. In addition, FAA is projecting that by

the end of the forecast period a total of 20,600 sport pilots will be certified. As of December 31, 2008, the

number of sport pilot certificates issued was 2,623 reflecting a growing interest in this new “entry level”

pilot certificate that was only created in 2005. The number of private pilots is projected to remain steady

over the forecast period to total 223,400 in 2025.

F

AA W orkload Forecasts

F

AA and C ontract T owers

Activity at the 264 FAA and 239 contract tower airports (a total of 503) totaled 58.5 million operations in

2008, down 4.3 percent from 2007. Activity is projected to decrease 5.7 percent in 2009, with declines

in both commercial and non-commercial operations. Growth in activity returns in 2010 (0.9 percent) as

commercial activity rises 2.2 percent. For the balance of the forecast activity growth varies between 1.3

and 1.9 percent per year, reaching 69.6 million operations in 2025.

Most of the growth over the forecast period results from increased commercial aircraft activity (up 1.6

percent annually). Air carrier activity is projected to shrink 5.0 percent in 2009 as carriers cut capacity

in a recessionary environment. In 2010, air carrier activity is projected to increase 3.3 percent as airline

capacity increases, and grows an average of 2.1 percent a year over the forecast period. Commuter/air

taxi operations are forecast to fall 6.4 percent in 2009 then grow slowly in 2010 (up 0.7 percent). For the

balance of the forecast period, commuter/air taxi operations are projected increase 1.4 percent a year.

General aviation activity fell 5.6 percent in 2008 with steep declines in both itinerant (down 6.5 percent) and

local (down 4.4 percent) activity. Activity is projected to fall again in 2009 (down 6.2 percent) reflecting the

impact of the poor economy and then rise slightly in 2010 (up 0.1 percent) and 2011 (up 0.6 percent) as

rising oil prices cut into the growth of flight hours and operations. For the entire forecast period, general HO UR S FL OW N

IN GE NE R A L AV IA TI ON AI RCR AF T

C A LE ND AR YEAR S 20 08 - 2 02 5

0. 8

-0 .2 -0 .2 1. 9 4. 7

3. 5

-1 .0 0. 0 1. 0 2. 0 3. 0 4. 0 5. 0

20 08 2009 2009- 20 25

T O TA L T U RBI NE SANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

44 aviation activity at towered airports is projected to increase an average of 0.6 percent a year, to 34.6 million

operations in 2025. General aviation activity at combined FAA/contract towers grows in line with the

modest increase forecast for general aviation piston hours already cited. Most operations at the smaller

towers are piston in nature, while those at the largest airports tend to be turbine operations.

Military activity, which fell 8.4 percent in 2008, is forecast to fall 0.8 percent in 2009. We do not forecast

military operations but instead assume a constant level of activity over the forecast period.

Operations 14 

# at FAA TRACONs (Terminal Radar Approach Control) fell 4.0 percent in 2008, the fourth year in

a row. They are projected to decline again in 2009 (down 4.3 percent) as the recession leads to decreases

in both commercial and non-commercial activity. TRACON operations are forecast to rise slightly (up 0.1

percent) in 2010 before increasing at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent for the balance of the forecast.

For the entire forecast period, TRACON operations grow an average of 1.2 percent a year, totaling 53.4

million in 2025.

Over the forecast period, commercial aircraft operations at FAA TRACONs are forecast to increase at 1.4

percent per year with increases in air carrier activity surpassing commuter/air taxi activity. General aviation

operations at FAA TRACONs are projected to grow 1.0 percent a year, reflecting the relatively slow growth

in the general aviation fleet and hours. Military activity is expected to remain at its 2008 level (2.4 million) of

activity throughout the forecast period.

E n R oute C enters

The number of IFR aircraft handled at FAA en route traffic control centers decreased 3.1 percent to 45.3

million in 2008, as all user groups except commuter/air taxi posted declines in activity. Activity at en route

centers is forecast to decrease by 6.0 percent in 2009 mirroring the downturn in commercial and general

aviation activity. Growth in en-route activity resumes in 2010 (up 2.1 percent) led by increases in air carrier

activity. After 2010 through the balance of the forecast period, en route activity increases 2.4 percent

14 TRACON operations consist of itinerant IFR and VFR arrivals and departures at all airports in the domain of the TRACON as well as

IFR and VFR overflights. 

# TR AC ON OP ER AT IO NS

FI SC AL YE AR S 2008 - 2 02 5

(4 .0 ) (4 .3 ) 1. 6

(5 .3 ) (2 .4 ) 1. 8



# -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0. 0 1. 0 2. 0 3. 0

2 008 2009 2009 -2 5

TO TA L CO MM ER CI ALANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# 45 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

annually, reaching 61.8 million aircraft handled in 2025. Over the entire forecast period, commercial activity

is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent, reflecting increases in the commercial

fleet and aircraft stage lengths. During the same period, general aviation activity is projected to grow 1.3

percent a year, reflecting the expected impact of additional business aviation activity. Military activity is

held constant at the 2008 activity level throughout the forecast period.

Activity at FAA en route centers is growing faster than at FAA towered airports because more of the activity

in en route centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) general

aviation flying. Much of general aviation activity at FAA towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is

local in nature, and does not impact the centers. IFR AI R C RA FT H A ND L E D

AT F A A EN R O UT E CE NT ER S

FI SC AL YE AR S 2008 - 2 02 5

(3 .1 ) 2. 3

(6 .0 ) (1 .9 ) 2. 7

(6 .7 )

-8 .0 -6 .0 -4 .0 -2 .0 0. 0 2. 0 4. 0

20 08 20 09 20 09 -2 5

TO T A L CO MM E R CI ALANNUALPERCENTGROWTH

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

46 

# UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS

International industry development, growth, and investment over the past several years have allowed

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) to evolve from remotely piloted vehicles with limited capabilities to

semi and fully autonomous systems for commercial applications. There are some 100 U.S. companies,

academic institutions, and government organizations developing over 300 UAS designs. Currently, the U.S.

government uses unmanned aircraft for military combat, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

The UAS term is used because it includes the entire system (aircraft, data links, control station and other

elements). UAS’s also vary widely in size, shape, and capabilities. Some unmanned aircraft weigh 1,900

pounds and can remain aloft for 30 hours or more, because there is no need for them to land to change

pilots. Some are 6 inches long. Others can perform dangerous missions without risking loss of life.

In its broadest context, there are three major market segments: military, civil government, and commercial.

While market drivers and dynamics among these segments differ significantly, they share common

objectives: to provide a service that cannot be accomplished by manned aircraft and/or to perform an

existing manned operation at a lower cost. Because of increased interest and activity, UAS have the

potential to become a major part of the commercial aerospace industry within the United States.

Working with industry, the FAA is starting to create regulations for small UAS’s to fly in the airspace. To this

end, an Aviation Rulemaking Committee (ARC) comprised of industry, associations, and other government

agencies has been formed. This ARC will recommend defining and developing necessary interim policy

guidance with corresponding training material for operating a small size category UAS within the National

Airspace System.

Federal agencies are planning to increase their use of UAS’s. State and local governments envision using

UAS’s to aid in law enforcement and firefighting. Potential commercial uses are also possible, for example,

in real estate photography or pipeline inspection. UAS’s could perform some manned aircraft missions with

less noise and fewer emissions.

The new UAS technologies under development today may have a profound impact on all aviation. The

investments and the technological advances made by military organizations have generated a growing

interest in their potential use for civil government, scientific research, and commercial applications. Once

the regulatory framework is in place and developers can safely test and evaluate their products within the

NAS, we expect significant growth in the civil and commercial UAS market.

# 47 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# COMMERCIAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) licenses and

regulates U.S. commercial space launch activity including launch vehicles and non-federal launch sites

authorized by Executive Order 12465 and 49 US Code, Subtitle IX, Chapter 701 (formerly the Commercial

Space Launch Act). Title 49 and the Executive Order also direct the Department of Transportation (carried

out by the FAA) to encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial launches. AST’s mission is to license and

regulate commercial launch and reentry operations and non-federal launch sites to protect public health

and safety, the safety of property, and the national security and foreign policy interests of the United States.



# Ov er v iew

Commercial space transportation generally consists of the launch of satellites into orbit for either

commercial or government customers by private, non-government entities, called launch services

providers. Commercial space transportation also covers suborbital launches, where a payload or vehicle is

launched on a trajectory that briefly goes into space but returns to Earth rather than going into orbit, as well

as the reentry of objects from space to Earth.

The FAA licenses several expendable vehicles used for commercial orbital launches. The most active

include the Pegasus and Taurus, two small vehicles built and operated by Orbital Sciences Corporation

(OSC); the Delta I V , a heavy-class vehicle and the Delta II, a medium-class vehicle, both built by United

Launch Alliance (ULA), a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and marketed by Boeing

Launch Services (BLS); the Zenit-3SL, a heavy-class vehicle built by the Ukrainian company K B Yuzhnoye

for the multinational Sea Launch venture; the Atlas 5, a heavy-class vehicle built by ULA and marketed by

Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services (LMCLS), and the Falcon 1, a small launch vehicle built and

operated by SpaceX. Commercial vehicles under development include the heavy-class Falcon 9 vehicle

by SpaceX and the medium-class Taurus II by OSC. From 1989 through the end of 2008, DOT/FAA has

licensed 195 orbital and suborbital commercial launches.

Experimental Permits, for suborbital reusable vehicle development and test flights, were first granted

by FAA in 2006 to Blue Origin and Armadillo Aerospace. Some permits have been granted for vehicles

participating in the Lunar Lander Challenge, a competition to demonstrate technologies potentially

applicable to both future lunar spacecraft and commercial suborbital vehicles, with $2 million in prizes

offered by NASA’s Centennial Challenges program.

Six commercial spaceports, located in Alaska, California ( V

andenberg Air Force Base and Mojave Air

and Space Port), New Mexico, Oklahoma, and V irginia, currently have FAA launch site operator licenses.

Several other commercial spaceports around the United States are under development.



# R e v iew of 2008

There were 11 FAA-licensed launches, all orbital, in 2008, up from 4 in 2007. BLS performed two Delta

II launches, carrying one commercial and one Italian government remote sensing satellites. Sea Launch

conducted five Zenit-3SL launches of commercial communications satellites. There were two Falcon

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

48 1 launches, including a successful demonstration launch. LMCLS performed one Atlas V launch of a

commercial communications satellite. OSC performed one Pegasus XL launch of a military satellite under

an FAA license. There were also five suborbital permit flights during 2008. .

F

AA L icensed and P ermitted L aunches, 2007-2009

2007 2008 2009 Forecast

Licensed Launches 4 11 8-10

Permitted Launches 9 5 5-10

Worldwide there were 28 orbital commercial launches in 2008, compared to 23 in 2007. In addition to the

11 FAA-licensed launches, Europe performed five commercial launches of its Ariane 5, Russia conducted

11 launches of various vehicles, and Land Launch, a joint venture of Sea Launch and Space International

Services, performed the inaugural launch of the Zenit-3SLB. There were 69 total worldwide commercial,

civil, and military launches in 2008, with commercial launches representing about 41 percent of the total.

For more details, see the Year in Review report available online at:

http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/year_review/

.



# G lobal F orecast

In May 2008, the FAA and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC)

published their annual global forecast for commercial launch demand, the 2008 Commercial Space

Transportation Forecasts. The report forecasts an average of 27.4 commercial orbital launches per year of

geosynchronous orbit (GSO) and non-geosynchronous orbit (NGSO) payloads through 2017. That annual

average includes 16.2 launches of medium-to-heavy vehicles to deploy GSO satellites, 8.1 launches of

medium-to-heavy vehicles to NGSO, and 3.1 launches to NGSO by small vehicles.

Co mme rc ia l Or b i ta l La u n c h Fo re c a s t (1 99 3- 20 17 )

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

19 93 1995 1997 1999 2001 20 03 200 5 2 00 7 2 00 9 2 01 1 2 01 3 2 015 20 17



# Ye ar GS O

(M ed iu m- to -l ar ge LV s) NG SO

(M

ed iu m- to -l ar ge

LV

s) NG SO

(S ma ll LV s ) 

# Ac tu al Fo re ca s t

# 49 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

Commercial GSO launches are used for communications satellites with masses ranging from 2,000 to over

6,000 kilograms; satellite masses have tended to grow over time although there is still interest in smaller

satellites. Demand for commercial NGSO launches spans a number of markets, including commercial

remote sensing, science and technology demonstration missions (often for nations without an indigenous

launch capability), and the replenishment and replacement of low Earth orbit communications satellite

systems first launched in the late 1990s.

The GSO and NGSO forecasts are not a prediction of what will actually be launched but instead represent

the expected demand for launch services, based on a variety of inputs. The complete forecast report is

available at: http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/reports_studies/forecasts/.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

50 

# RIS K S TO THE FORECAST

While the demand for air transportation has proven to be resilient over time in the face of numerous

challenges, there is a greater degree of uncertainty around the FAA’s current forecast of aviation demand

than in the past. This is due in part, because never in the recent past have so many negative factors come

together at once. The previous downturn in aviation demand was caused by the recession of 2001 and

was exacerbated by the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Economic growth returned by 2002 but air transportation

demand rebounded more slowly and didn’t recover until 2004. The present recession downturn has

been the result of numerous factors beginning with housing downturn that spread to clog credit markets

and overall functioning of the global financial infrastructure. The impacts soon spread across the real

sector of the economy in the US and the world. The extent and magnitude of these effects and their

linkages to air transportation demand are not completely evident yet. While the FAA believes its current

outlook for aviation demand and activity is attainable, future aviation activities in the near to mid-term will

depend critically on how the broader economy evolves. Although commercial aviation has demonstrated

tremendous flexibility by aggressively rationalizing supply and overall resilience of demand for air

transportation still persists, risk and uncertainties are abound. Added to past risks, the economic slowdown

and constrained financial markets now sit at the center of the ability of aviation to rebound.

A number of risk factors were highlighted in last year’s forecast. The most notable was the risk of a deeper

downturn and rising unemployment. The housing downturn in the U.S. deepened along with the financial

crisis that has become global in scope. The US economy’s output and services, i.e., real GDP, contracted

at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008 followed by a steep decline of 3.8 percent in

the fourth quarter. For the entire calendar year, US real GDP increased only 1.3 percent . Many forecasters

now predict that the economy will not recover until the end of 2009 or not before 2010. The consensus

market forecast (Wall Street Journal) in February 2009 indicates that the US economy will contract 1

percent in 2009. Moreover, global economic growth has stalled and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

now predicts world growth to fall to 0.5 percent in 2009, its lowest rate since World War II. As a result,

advanced economies including the US, Europe and Japan are expected to register declines in output

ranging between 1 and 4 percent. The financial strains remain acute despite numerous policy actions led

primarily by the US, Europe, and China. The real economy is not expected to return to some functional

normalcy without financial recovery accompanied by free-flowing credit markets. The overall improvement

in the economy will depend importantly on the turnaround in real estate market and improvement in

balance sheets, financial institutions and households alike.

Not surprisingly, a broad range of uncertainties prevail at the present time. To begin with, uncertainty

surrounding the housing market continues to dominate the real sector of the economy. Faced with an almost

25 percent decline in housing prices (S&P Case-Shiller Index), a large inventory of housing stocks persist.

According to National Association of Realtors, housing inventory in 2008 had climbed to over 4 million; a

34 percent increase from the peak of the market. The large inventory of homes on the market continues

to create downward pressure on housing prices across the country leading to increasing possibilities of

additional mortgage defaults. A deteriorating mortgage profile continues to downgrade banks and investors’

real estate portfolio alike. Any improvement in banks’ balance sheet is intricately linked to improvement

in the real estate market. Likewise, a deteriorating real estate market and the decline in the overall asset

market have resulted in a severe loss of wealth. Without a floor on prices, the overall trend in the housing

market creates a downward spiral that is unsustainable for long run growth prospects in the US and global

economies. The overall turnaround in the demand situation thus depends on the turnaround in real estate

market and improvement in balance sheets, financial institutions and households alike.

# 51 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

Despite the rapid decline in oil prices during the later half of 2008, there is considerable uncertainty as to

the level of oil prices once economic growth resumes. Although the oil price forecast the FAA is using calls

for a steady increase after 2009, the increase is relatively modest, with prices remaining well below $100/

barrel throughout the forecast period. Some forecasters are calling for a much sharper increase in the price

of oil. In a January 2009 research note, CIBC analysts predicted that oil prices will reach $100/barrel by

2010 (CIBC, 1/23/09). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its 2009 Annual Energy Outlook

is projecting oil prices to exceed $100/barrel by 2013. While falling oil prices give consumers an impetus

for additional spending, including air travel and increases the chances for industry profitability, higher oil

prices could lead to further shifts in consumer expenditures away from aviation, dampening a recovery

in air transport demand. Furthermore, higher oil prices, especially in the near term, could wipe out any

chance of industry profitability, continue to pressure airline costs, delay balance sheet improvement and

discourage expansion plans or new orders for aircraft as carriers focus on increasing cash balances.

One of the major lessons of the present recession is the renewed acknowledgement that the global

economies are inherently coupled with the US economy. The linkages of the global economies to the US

economy proved to be far stronger than was thought previously during the time of steady expansion. The

sustained decline of personal consumption expenditures that beset the present US recession also brought

down economies that depend critically on exporting to the US, the largest being the economies of Europe,

China, K orea, Japan, Singapore, and Canada. Faced with declining US imports, the trade links between

these other countries are proving not to be substantial enough to pull the world economy out of recession.

As US trade volumes (both import and export) declined with the onset of the recession, so did the

economic growth in the rest of the world. This has been further accelerated by the financial contagion now

spreading across the globe. If there are defaults on debt payments by some of the emerging economies,

this may further complicate balance sheets of those banks which are exposed to emerging markets.

Although FAA uses the latest administration economic projections to derive the forecasts of aviation

demand, an important part of the FAA forecast process is to compare the administration forecasts with

other economic forecasts. FAA typically compares administration economic forecasts to those of Global

Insight, Inc., a leading economic consulting firm. Unlike prior forecasts, Global Insight’s current U.S. GDP

forecast is much lower than the latest administration projections. While the administration is projecting

U.S. GDP growth to average 3.8 percent a year between 2009 and 2013, Global Insight is forecasting U.S.

GDP growth to average 2.4 percent a year during the same period. In addition, Global Insight regularly

provides alternative forecasts and assigns a likelihood of their occurrence along with the likelihood of

the baseline forecast occurring. In January 2009, Global Insight assigned the likelihood of their baseline

forecast at 60 percent. An “optimistic scenario”—faster economic growth in the rest of the world, impacts

of the stimulus package occurring sooner, and a continuation of the high worker productivity rates—that

results in lower unemployment and a faster recovery in the U.S. was assigned a 20 percent likelihood by

Global Insight. A faster recovery with higher economic growth would lead to increased demand for aviation

services and boosts the industry’s profitability further

Global Insight also constructed a pessimistic scenario which was assigned a 20 percent likelihood. In this

pessimistic scenario, the financial crisis worsens resulting in lower consumer spending, weaker business

investment, slower world economic growth and weak productivity growth. The current recession becomes

the worst downturn since the Great Depression and the recovery coming out of recession is slower than

their baseline forecast. We used the pessimistic scenario as inputs to our domestic traffic industry model

to quantify the impact of a deeper recession on US airline industry traffic and capacity growth. In 2009,

domestic passengers in the pessimistic scenario are only 0.7 percent lower than in our base forecast with

RPMs 1.0 percent lower. However, the difference between the base forecast and the pessimistic scenario

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

52 widens dramatically over the next 4 years so that by 2013, domestic passenger enplanements would be

14.0 percent lower than in the base forecast and RPMs would be 15.4 percent lower. Domestic load factor

was 5.3 points lower while yield was higher, driven by higher oil prices and slower low-cost carrier growth.

Industry passenger revenue was 8.2 percent lower, hampering the industry’s drive for sustained profitability

and balance sheet improvement.

One positive outcome from all the turmoil in 2008 was that U.S. airlines had already taken significant

steps to rationalize domestic capacity before the downturn in demand. As noted earlier in this document,

we anticipate a large decline in capacity (roughly 10 percent) in FY2009 as the industry took the lead in

adjusting supply that is often necessary in the middle of a recession. The rationalized supply has given

the industry fare flexibility and positioned itself to recover ahead of other sectors in the economy when

economic growth returns. Furthermore, the reduction in capacity provides a rare look at the core network

structure of air transportation in the US. With the cuts in capacity that are in place, airlines appear to be

focusing their services in markets that are profitable. The resulting network structure should be more

robust, even under such severe market pressure, and provide the foundation around which any long term

investments can be made.

At present, the outlook for further consolidation via mergers and acquisition (M&A) appears to be rather

limited. With the recent mergers of US Airways and America West and Delta’s consolidation with Northwest,

there appears to be little scope for further mergers in the US airline industry. The tightening of the credit

markets that may continue over the near term has reduced the ability of the industry to finance additional

mergers. However, US airlines are exploring other options including global alliances. Many of the major

carriers in the US are members of global alliances that operate with some measure of anti-trust immunity

from the US DOT. While anti-trust immunity may provide flexibility to airline operators across borders,

it may create an anti-competitive environment in the marketplace. These market consolidating vehicles,

particularly the anti-trust immunity provisions, may invite increased regulatory scrutiny. If such oversights

are launched in the future, this will complicate the evolving structure of the airline industry and may impact

demand via new regulations.

Also, the forecast assumes the addition of sizable numbers of regional jets into the fleet of regional carriers.

However, the regional carriers’ future is closely linked to those of the larger network carriers. Should one

or more of these large carriers cease to exist (because of financial difficulties or merger), certain regional

carriers could find themselves either saddled with excess capacity or lack of sufficient capacity, or lack of

feed traffic. The recent experience of the Delta and Northwest bankruptcies saw opportunities for regional

flying substantially reduced.

Despite a 16 percent increase in business jet shipments in 2008, events during that last quarter of 2008

have dampened the prospects in this sector for the next few years. First, the decision by Eclipse to enter

into bankruptcy protection in November has tempered expectations about further growth in the V LJ

market. The decision by Eclipse to enter into bankruptcy was driven primarily by a lack of additional credit

due in part to the global credit crisis as well as the decision by DayJet, a leading operator of V LJs, to

cease operations in November. These two events accelerated Eclipse’s decision to enter into bankruptcy

protection. Given the developments in the last year, our forecast for this segment is significantly lower than

last year’s forecast. How long the industry slowdown continues depends, in large part, on the recovery

of the market for business jets. The market for business jets is largely dependent upon the growth in the

economy and corporate profits and it is unknown how well this market will fare as corporate profits fall

in the current environment. The current forecast assumes that 200-300 V LJs will enter the fleet a year,

with the U.S. market growing to 4,875 by 2025. A key driver of the V LJ market is the on-demand air taxi

# 53 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

industry. With the demise of the DayJet, the sector is much smaller now. The segment is now served by

much smaller providers, such as Linear Air and North American Jet. Those who believe that the business

model underlying DayJet was ill-suited for the time but that the V LJ is a sound aircraft (both operationally

and economically) still tend to have relatively higher fleet forecasts. Those who are less sanguine about the

prospects for the mass on-demand air taxi industry tend to have more conservative fleet forecasts. Given

the uncertainty around the economic environment, the FAA leans on the conservative side of the forecast.

The mix of aircraft operating at most large hubs is also expected to become increasingly complex over

the forecast period. The expected increases in the numbers of regional jets and V LJs will increase the

complexities of the national airspace system and make the FAA’s job more challenging. The increased

complexity of the mix of aircraft serves to compound the increases in workload strictly due to the

increasing demand for aviation services projected over the forecast period.

High levels of delays occurred at many U.S. airports in 2008 and could become a critical limit to growth

over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and workload are unconstrained in that they

assume that there will be sufficient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the

infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more congestion and delays, it is likely that the forecasts

of both demand and workload would not be achieved. The Department of Transportation and the FAA are

examining a number of options to manage congestion, but the specific measures to be implemented and

therefore their impact are unknown at this time.

Environmental and related energy concerns also pose a risk to the forecast. Concerns about aviation’s

impact on the environment, which have accompanied its growth, could potentially restrict the ability of

the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport expansion or new

construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and water quality concerns.

Concerns about the climate impacts of aviation emissions are also growing. Although aviation currently

accounts for 2 to 3 percent of climate change impacts, greenhouse emissions from the sector are expected

to grow unless aggressively mitigated with new technology, renewable fuels, operational improvements

and market measures. Market measures intended to control emissions, e.g., various emissions trading

systems and charges being discussed, would add significant costs to the aviation sector that could both

reduce demand and available funds for needed investments in new technology. Energy concerns are

also rising, driven by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security issues, and the concerns about fossil fuel

contributions to global climate change. All of these concerns could have a negative impact on the ability

of the aviation system to meet the mobility needs of the traveling public in the future unless the technology,

operational, and alternative fuel initiatives in the Next Generation Air Transportation System Plan are funded

and implemented. Lack of progress on improving the environmental and energy outlook for the future

fleet through breakthroughs in quieter, cleaner aircraft technologies and renewable fuels can drive more

restrictions via standards or operating limitations on the fleet in service, which in turn may depress growth

over the forecast period.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

54

# 55 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# APPENDIX I

FORECAST ACCURACY

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They involve not only

statistical analyses and various scientific methods, but also judgment, and reliance on industry knowledge

and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate industry trends not yet reflected in recent results. The FAA’s

annual Aerospace Forecast is no exception. Given the volatile nature of the U.S. airline industry, it is not

surprising that each year’s forecast would contain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA

forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results.

Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable

variance from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for five key forecast metrics

during the FY 2003–FY 2008 forecast period. Although this brief period has experienced industry upheaval,

FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For these reasons, inclusion of prior

periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to inconclusive, or inaccurate, implications about the

accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology.

The table contains the mean absolute percent errors for the projected values versus the eventual results

for U.S. carriers’ domestic operations. Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance

by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the 3 Years

column for ASM shows the mean absolute percent error was 6.5 percent for ASM forecasts prepared 3

years in advance. For the period under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2005, FY 2006, FY

2007 and FY 2008 occurred in FY 2003, FY 2004, FY 2005, and FY 2006, respectively.

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longer-term trends.

Typically, one would expect the variances to decrease as the forecast year is closer to the year the forecast

is prepared. Presenting forecast variances in this way allows an examination of changes in the relative

variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

56 Examination of the forecast variances reveals several items. First, all the metrics examined, show declining

variances as the forecast time horizon decreases, as expected, although the variances in yield increase

somewhat between Year 3 and Year 5. The largest variances were found in the forecasts of ASMs and

Yield, the two variables most directly affected by carrier business decisions. However, for both of these

variables the largest declines in variance occur between Year 3 and Year 1. Second, the FAA’s forecast

model produces relatively small variances for both of the passenger traffic metrics, Enplanements and

RPMs, with none of the forecast variances exceeding 6.0 percent for any forecast time horizon examined.

Third, the relative divergence in forecast variances between RPMs and ASMs suggests errors in forecasting

load factor.

The examination of the forecast variances over time suggests two primary implications. First, added focus

on load factor might improve the model. Currently, load factor is calculated by dividing the forecast RPMs

by forecast ASMs. The large difference between the RPM forecast variance and ASM forecast variance

beyond Year 2, indicates a relatively large variance in the forecast of load factor, one of the critical elements

in converting passenger demand into aviation activity. However, the difference between the RPM forecast

variance and ASM forecast variance narrows as the time horizon shortens, suggesting that that the near

term load factor forecasts are coming closer to the mark. All other things being equal, large variances in

forecasts of load factor will lead to large variances in the long-term forecasts of aviation activity, as can

been seen in the variances of the IFR aircraft handled forecasts.

Furthermore, ASMs are becoming increasingly difficult to forecast beyond a relatively short time horizon,

as carriers often react to changing market conditions. The relatively large variances in the ASM forecasts

suggest that carriers have reacted by permanently removing capacity. Such capacity reductions can be

identified in the short term by using advance schedule information. However, FAA’s longer-term forecasts

rely on anticipated aircraft deliveries and retirements as well as historic relationships between economic

activity and capacity deployed. Given the volatile nature of many of the factors that may influence longer

term ASM forecasts, a simpler approach, such as RPMs divided by load factor, may improve the long run

accuracy of the ASM forecasts.

# 57 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# APPENDIX II

AC K NOWLEDGEMENTS

This document was prepared by the Statistics and Forecast Branch (APO-110), Office of Aviation Policy

and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. The following individuals were responsible for

individual subject areas:

E conomic E nvironment: Dipasis Bhadra (202) 267-9027

Cheryl L. Miner (202) 493-4236

C ommercial A ir C arriers:

– Passengers Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

Cheryl L. Miner (202) 493-4236

K athy Lizotte (202) 267-3302

– Cargo Andrea Schandler (202) 267-3323

G eneral A viation:

– Forecasts Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

– Survey Data Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

F

AA W orkload M easures:

– Forecasts Roger D. Schaufele, Jr. (202) 267-3306

– Data Information Systems Branch, APO-130

Unmanned A ircraft

S ystems: Michael Lukacs, Aircraft Regulatory Analysis,

APO-320 (202) 267-9641

C ommercial S pace: John Sloan, Commercial Space Transportation,

AST-100 (202) 267-7989

T

ext and T able P reparation: Statistics and Forecast Branch Staff

Forecast C onference

P lanner: Linda Baranovics (202) 267-7924

APO W ebsites:

– Forecasts/Statistical

Publications http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics

– APO Data System http://aspm.faa.gov

E mail:

– APO staff first name.last name@faa.gov

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

58

# 59 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025



# FORECAST TABLES

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

60TABLE1U.S.SHORT-TERMECONOMICFORECASTSECONOMICVARIABLEFISCAL YEAR 2009FISCAL YEAR 20101ST. QTR.2ND QTR.3RD QTR.4TH QTR.1ST QTR.2ND QTR.3RD QTR.4TH QTR.RealGDP1(Billions of 2000$)Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateRefiners’ Acquisition Cost - Average2(Dollars)Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateConsumerPriceIndex1(1982-84 equals 100)Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate11,599.5-3.8%54.50-94.8%213.8-8.8%11,472.9-4.3%29.98-90.8%212.1-3.1%11,467.0-0.2%27.47-29.5%213.62.9%11,532.22.3%32.1687.7%214.92.3%11,635.73.6%36.2260.9%215.51.1%11,733.83.4%41.5973.9%216.21.3%11,844.33.8%45.3441.2%217.01.6%11,949.13.6%48.1527.1%217.91.6%1 Source: Office of Management and Budget, February 2009.2 Source: Global Insight, US Economic Outlook, January 2009.

# 61 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE2U.S.LONG-TERMECONOMICFORECASTSFISCALYEARGROSSDOMESTIC PRODUCT1(Billions 2000$)CONSUMER PRICEINDEX1(1982-84=100)REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COSTAVERAGE2(Dollars per barrel)Historical200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth2000-082008-102010-202008-259,762.89,885.110,002.410,208.310,593.410,917.111,227.311,457.811,676.611,517.911,790.712,238.912,792.613,350.413,780.614,139.614,507.814,885.515,272.815,670.416,077.816,495.916,924.717,364.817,816.318,279.52.3%0.5%3.1%2.7%170.75176.25178.88183.10187.32193.45200.60205.31214.43213.59216.63220.27224.60229.31234.13239.05244.06249.19254.42259.77265.22270.79276.48282.28288.21294.262.9%0.5%2.0%1.9%26.7025.7921.9828.0133.6547.2159.9560.78101.5336.0342.8266.3379.2885.0187.1681.8179.2779.3179.3480.0681.7483.4585.2186.9988.8290.6918.2%-35.1%6.7%-0.7%1 Source: 2008-2019; Office of Management and Budget, February 2009. Extrapolated to 2025.2 Source: 2008-2019; Global Insight, US Economic Outlook, January 2009. Extrapolated to 2025.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

62TABLE3INTERNATIONALGDPFORECASTSBYTRAVELREGIONCALENDARYEARGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)CANADAEUROPE/AFRICA/MIDDLE EASTLATIN AMERICA/MEXICOJAPAN/PACIFICBASIN/CHINA/OTHERASIA/AUSTRALIA/N. ZEALANDWORLDHistorical200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth2000-082008-102010-202008-251,000.71,018.61,048.41,068.11,101.41,133.11,168.31,200.01,208.21,190.71,220.71,268.81,312.61,354.81,391.91,424.61,459.71,495.11,532.11,567.51,603.21,641.41,681.41,720.81,763.21,804.92.4%0.5%2.8%2.4%15,291.815,587.415,832.916,118.316,602.617,050.617,682.818,264.918,580.918,348.118,499.718,922.319,437.519,954.320,469.720,992.621,517.222,058.622,612.623,178.623,749.224,328.624,911.425,505.526,110.226,727.02.5%-0.2%2.5%2.2%2,161.02,173.72,179.92,216.32,348.42,452.42,583.62,722.42,827.42,849.22,948.03,065.23,188.73,316.53,450.53,589.93,733.13,880.94,033.54,191.54,353.34,521.04,694.64,873.35,057.25,248.13.4%2.1%4.0%3.7%8,786.78,987.29,288.69,673.310,184.510,680.111,260.211,916.912,338.512,508.313,079.613,839.814,595.515,342.516,098.216,874.417,664.918,479.819,309.420,156.921,025.221,917.422,835.723,794.224,795.925,838.44.3%3.0%4.9%4.4%39,531.840,200.741,016.442,109.943,790.045,318.147,162.448,958.550,060.449,693.850,897.052,756.254,675.356,550.758,458.860,439.362,467.164,567.466,735.168,884.571,075.573,272.975,527.977,850.780,257.082,758.03.0%0.8%3.4%3.0%Source: Global Insight, February 2009.

# 63 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE4INTERNATIONALGDPFORECASTS—SELECTEDAREAS/COUNTRIESCALENDARYEARGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT(In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)NORTHAMERICA(NAFTA)EUROZONEUNITEDKINGDOMJAPANCHINAHistorical200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth2000-082008-102010-202008-2512,871.412,971.213,186.213,501.713,990.014,402.114,824.115,143.215,314.614,944.515,280.815,773.316,233.616,656.317,106.417,594.718,108.418,647.119,230.219,757.920,299.520,811.221,342.621,878.222,438.023,033.52.2%-0.1%2.9%2.4%9,383.79,566.89,664.89,746.39,935.710,117.310,420.810,698.310,799.510,596.010,615.410,783.210,996.611,209.211,416.011,625.811,834.312,050.412,270.312,496.612,718.612,943.613,167.113,392.313,621.013,853.61.8%-0.9%1.8%1.5%2,018.22,067.82,111.22,170.72,230.62,276.52,341.12,412.42,431.62,360.12,360.52,406.32,475.92,539.52,601.22,663.42,727.02,791.42,857.32,924.12,990.53,057.23,122.33,187.33,252.93,318.62.4%-1.5%2.4%1.8%4,272.44,279.24,290.84,353.44,471.74,557.54,650.64,760.34,753.94,647.44,741.74,891.14,987.45,062.45,135.35,202.55,257.55,301.65,338.05,369.35,396.45,418.95,439.55,459.45,479.15,498.21.3%-0.1%1.3%0.9%1,415.51,532.91,672.41,839.72,025.52,236.12,495.52,792.53,050.33,243.53,512.43,848.04,226.54,612.95,011.55,422.35,855.56,319.06,807.37,311.97,838.18,382.18,940.49,524.110,139.810,783.110.1%7.3%8.4%7.7%Source: Global Insight, February 2009.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

64TABLE5U.S.COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERS1TOTALSCHEDULEDU.S.PASSENGERTRAFFICFISCALYEARREVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (Millions)REVENUE PASSENGER MILES (Billions)DOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-25641.2625.8575.1587.8628.5669.5668.4690.1679.6626.5638.9665.6698.6732.1752.4770.0789.1807.3823.9840.3857.8875.7894.0912.9932.2952.10.7%-3.0%3.0%2.0%56.456.751.253.360.567.471.675.377.875.877.781.185.089.093.197.3101.6106.1110.7115.5120.5125.7130.9136.3142.0147.94.1%-0.1%4.5%3.9%697.6682.5626.3641.2689.0737.0740.0765.3757.4702.3716.5746.6783.6821.1845.5867.3890.7913.4934.6955.8978.31,001.31,024.91,049.21,074.21,100.01.0%-2.7%3.2%2.2%512.8507.9473.4492.7540.2573.2582.4600.5594.4541.4555.8584.8620.4656.8680.1700.7723.2745.0765.1785.3806.7828.7851.4874.8898.9923.71.9%-3.3%3.8%2.6%181.8183.3158.2155.6177.0197.2208.5221.2233.1227.2234.0245.6258.5271.3284.9299.1314.0329.5345.6362.4380.0397.9416.2435.2455.2476.23.2%0.2%5.0%4.3%694.6691.1631.6648.3717.2770.4790.9821.7827.5768.6789.8830.4878.9928.1964.9999.81,037.21,074.51,110.71,147.81,186.71,226.61,267.61,310.01,354.11,399.92.2%-2.3%4.2%3.1%* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

# 65 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE6U.S.COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERS1SCHEDULEDPASSENGERCAPACITY,TRAFFIC,ANDLOADFACTORSFISCALYEARDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-25726.6732.1681.8684.2730.2755.2740.2752.5749.3682.1699.2726.5764.2804.6833.1859.6885.7912.1939.2967.0995.81,025.41,056.01,087.61,120.21,153.90.4%-3.4%3.6%2.6%512.8507.9473.4492.7540.2573.2582.4600.5594.4541.4555.8584.8620.4656.8680.1700.7723.2745.0765.1785.3806.7828.7851.4874.8898.9923.71.9%-3.3%3.8%2.6%70.669.469.472.074.075.978.779.879.379.479.580.581.281.681.681.581.781.781.581.281.080.880.680.480.280.1239.3246.6212.3206.5223.0248.5261.3275.9291.9288.9297.2311.8327.8343.7360.6378.3396.8416.0436.0456.8478.6500.7523.3546.9571.5597.52.5%0.9%4.9%4.3%181.8183.3158.2155.6177.0197.2208.5221.2233.1227.2234.0245.6258.5271.3284.9299.1314.0329.5345.6362.4380.0397.9416.2435.2455.2476.23.2%0.2%5.0%4.3%76.074.374.575.379.479.479.880.279.978.778.778.878.978.979.079.179.179.279.379.379.479.579.579.679.679.7965.9978.7894.1890.8953.31,003.61,001.51,028.41,041.2971.0996.51,038.31,092.01,148.31,193.71,237.91,282.51,328.11,375.11,423.91,474.41,526.11,579.31,634.51,691.71,751.30.9%-2.2%4.0%3.1%694.6691.1631.6648.3717.2770.4790.9821.7827.5768.6789.8830.4878.9928.1964.9999.81,037.21,074.51,110.71,147.81,186.71,226.61,267.61,310.01,354.11,399.92.2%-2.3%4.2%3.1%71.970.670.672.875.276.879.079.979.579.279.380.080.580.880.880.880.980.980.880.680.580.480.380.280.079.9* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1 Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

66TABLE7U.S.COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERS1TOTALSCHEDULEDU.S.INTERNATIONALPASSENGERTRAFFICFISCALYEARREVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTSREVENUE PASSENGER MILESATLANTICLATINAMERICAPACIFICTOTALINTERNATIONALATLANTICLATINAMERICAPACIFICTOTALINTERNATIONAL(Mil)(Mil)(Mil)(Mil)(Bil)(Bil)(Bil)(Bil)Historical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2520.920.518.017.819.921.622.524.126.025.526.628.229.530.731.833.034.235.536.838.139.640.942.343.745.146.62.8%1.2%4.0%3.5%24.324.823.625.128.332.535.237.638.638.038.740.242.244.446.748.951.253.656.058.561.163.866.769.772.876.05.9%0.2%4.7%4.1%11.211.49.610.512.313.213.913.613.212.312.312.713.313.914.615.416.217.118.018.919.920.921.923.024.125.32.1%-3.4%4.9%3.9%56.456.751.253.360.567.471.675.377.875.877.781.185.089.093.197.3101.6106.1110.7115.5120.5125.7130.9136.3142.0147.94.1%-0.1%4.5%3.9%87.186.274.773.282.189.593.9102.2112.7111.1116.6124.0130.8136.4142.1148.1154.3160.8167.4174.3181.4188.5195.4202.7210.2218.03.3%1.7%4.5%4.0%36.337.634.536.241.448.653.657.760.060.261.363.767.171.275.780.385.190.195.4100.9106.7112.7119.1125.8132.9140.56.5%1.1%5.7%5.1%58.459.449.046.253.559.261.161.460.456.056.058.060.763.767.170.774.678.682.887.391.996.7101.7106.7112.1117.80.4%-3.6%5.1%4.0%181.8183.3158.2155.6177.0197.2208.5221.2233.1227.2234.0245.6258.5271.3284.9299.1314.0329.5345.6362.4380.0397.9416.2435.2455.2476.23.2%0.2%5.0%4.3%* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

# 67 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE8U.S.ANDFOREIGN FLAGCARRIERSTOTALPASSENGERTRAFFICTO/FROMTHEUNITEDSTATESCALENDARYEARTOTAL PASSENGERS BY WORLD TRAVEL AREA (Millions)ATLANTICLATIN AMERICAPACIFICU.S./CANADATRANSBORDERTOTALHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2553.047.543.444.648.949.949.853.357.056.458.461.865.969.873.176.279.382.685.989.392.796.399.8103.5107.3111.10.9%1.2%4.7%4.0%40.838.836.939.142.744.247.148.649.348.951.154.057.360.663.466.269.172.175.278.481.885.389.092.896.7100.82.4%1.9%4.8%4.3%26.023.022.320.223.825.125.626.325.925.827.329.131.133.134.936.738.640.642.744.947.249.752.455.158.161.30.0%2.7%5.6%5.2%20.818.617.616.918.519.721.021.521.721.322.123.224.425.526.427.228.128.929.830.731.632.633.634.635.736.80.5%1.0%3.6%3.2%140.6127.9120.1120.8133.9139.0143.5149.7153.9152.5159.0168.1178.6189.0197.8206.3215.1224.2233.6243.4253.4263.9274.8286.0297.8310.01.1%1.7%4.8%4.2%* Sources: Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin America, INS Form I-92, U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S./ Canada Transborder, Transport Canada.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

68TABLE9U.S.COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERSFORECASTASSUMPTIONS1SEATSPERAIRCRAFTANDPASSENGERTRIPLENGTHFISCALYEARAVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFTAVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTHDOMESTIC(Seats)INT’L.(Seats)SYSTEM(Seats)DOMESTIC(Miles)INT’L.(Miles)SYSTEM(Miles)Historical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025129.3127.6125.9123.0121.7120.4120.1120.4120.8120.1120.6120.8120.8120.5120.2120.3120.5120.8121.0121.1121.3121.5121.6121.8121.9122.1230.6226.9221.5220.2218.7217.1215.0215.9217.5217.0217.5218.1218.6219.0219.4219.8220.4220.9221.4221.9222.4222.9223.3223.8224.2224.7145.0143.5140.3137.0135.8135.3135.7136.6138.0138.5139.1139.5139.5139.3139.2139.6140.2140.8141.3141.8142.3142.8143.2143.7144.1144.6799.8811.6823.2838.1859.6856.2871.4870.2874.6864.1870.0878.6888.0897.1903.8910.1916.6922.8928.7934.6940.5946.4952.4958.3964.3970.23,223.23,233.93,088.82,917.62,927.32,924.62,911.52,939.32,996.42,996.13,012.83,029.73,042.03,048.23,059.33,074.23,090.03,105.83,121.83,137.53,152.73,166.53,179.93,192.63,204.93,219.6995.71,012.71,008.51,011.11,041.01,045.41,068.81,073.71,092.51,094.31,102.21,112.21,121.61,130.31,141.21,152.91,164.51,176.41,188.51,200.81,213.01,225.01,236.81,248.61,260.51,272.7* Source: Forms 41 and 298-C, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Sum of U.S. Mainline and Regional Air Carriers.

# 69 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE10U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERSSCHEDULEDPASSENGERTRAFFICFISCALYEARREVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS(Millions)REVENUE PASSENGER MILES(Billions)DOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-25561.5545.4486.5482.8502.6523.1516.2533.9522.3476.2485.1505.0530.5555.9569.0580.2593.1605.0615.1624.8635.3645.9656.7667.7678.8690.2-0.9%-3.6%2.7%1.7%53.353.548.450.657.364.268.171.974.372.674.377.681.385.189.193.197.3101.7106.1110.8115.7120.6125.7131.0136.5142.24.3%0.0%4.5%3.9%614.8598.9534.8533.4559.9587.3584.4605.7596.6548.8559.4582.6611.8641.0658.1673.3690.4706.7721.2735.6750.9766.5782.4798.6815.3832.4-0.4%-3.2%3.0%2.0%490.0483.6443.6453.4488.5509.6513.9529.9522.0473.2484.7509.2539.8570.9589.1605.0622.7639.5654.5669.3685.1701.2717.6734.5751.8769.40.8%-3.6%3.5%2.3%181.0182.3157.3154.8175.9195.8206.8219.5231.3225.5232.2243.7256.5269.2282.7296.8311.6327.0343.0359.7377.2394.9413.1432.0451.9472.73.1%0.2%5.0%4.3%670.9665.9600.9608.2664.4705.4720.7749.4753.2698.7716.9753.0796.3840.1871.8901.8934.3966.5997.51,029.01,062.21,096.11,130.81,166.51,203.61,242.21.5%-2.4%4.0%3.0%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

70TABLE11U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERSSCHEDULEDPASSENGERCAPACITY,TRAFFIC,ANDLOADFACTORSFISCALYEARDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-25688.3690.7633.1623.7654.2665.1648.7659.0651.0589.1602.4623.6654.5687.6709.2729.3748.9768.5788.6809.1830.2851.8874.0896.7920.1944.0-0.7%-3.8%3.3%2.2%490.0483.6443.6453.4488.5509.6513.9529.9522.0473.2484.7509.2539.8570.9589.1605.0622.7639.5654.5669.3685.1701.2717.6734.5751.8769.40.8%-3.6%3.5%2.3%71.270.070.172.774.776.679.280.480.280.380.581.782.583.083.183.083.283.283.082.782.582.382.181.981.781.5238.0244.9210.8205.1221.3246.3258.9273.4289.3286.5294.7309.1325.0340.8357.6375.2393.5412.6432.5453.2474.9496.9519.3542.7567.2593.02.5%0.9%4.9%4.3%181.0182.3157.3154.8175.9195.8206.8219.5231.3225.5232.2243.7256.5269.2282.7296.8311.6327.0343.0359.7377.2394.9413.1432.0451.9472.73.1%0.2%5.0%4.3%76.074.474.675.579.579.579.980.379.978.778.878.878.979.079.179.179.279.279.379.479.479.579.579.679.779.7926.2935.7844.0828.8875.5911.4907.6932.4940.3875.6897.1932.7979.51,028.41,066.81,104.41,142.41,181.21,221.11,262.41,305.11,348.71,393.31,439.41,487.31,537.00.2%-2.3%3.8%2.9%670.9665.9600.9608.2664.4705.4720.7749.4753.2698.7716.9753.0796.3840.1871.8901.8934.3966.5997.51,029.01,062.21,096.11,130.81,166.51,203.61,242.21.5%-2.4%4.0%3.0%72.471.271.273.475.977.479.480.480.179.879.980.781.381.781.781.781.881.881.781.581.481.381.281.080.980.8* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

# 71 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE12U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERSSCHEDULEDINTERNATIONALPASSENGERENPLANEMENTSFISCALYEARREVENUE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS (MIL)ATLANTICLATIN AMERICAPACIFICTOTALHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2520.920.518.017.819.921.622.524.126.025.526.628.229.530.731.833.034.235.536.838.139.640.942.343.745.146.62.8%1.2%4.0%3.5%21.221.720.722.325.229.331.734.235.134.735.336.738.540.642.744.846.949.151.453.756.258.861.564.367.270.36.5%0.3%4.7%4.2%11.211.49.610.512.313.213.913.613.212.312.312.713.313.914.615.416.217.118.018.919.920.921.923.024.125.32.1%-3.4%4.9%3.9%53.353.548.450.657.364.268.171.974.372.674.377.681.385.189.193.197.3101.7106.1110.8115.7120.6125.7131.0136.5142.24.3%0.0%4.5%3.9%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.Note: Detail may not add to total because of rounding.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

72TABLE13U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERSSCHEDULEDPASSENGERCAPACITY,TRAFFIC,ANDLOADFACTORSBYINTERNATIONALTRAVELREGIONSFISCALYEARATLANTICLATIN AMERICAPACIFICINTERNATIONALASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORASMs(BIL)RPMs(BIL)% LOADFACTORHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-25109.9112.997.093.7100.5108.6115.8126.6141.0142.5149.4158.6167.1174.1181.2188.5196.2204.2212.3220.7229.5238.1246.6255.4264.5274.03.2%2.9%4.4%4.0%87.186.274.773.282.189.593.9102.2112.7111.1116.6124.0130.8136.4142.1148.1154.3160.8167.4174.3181.4188.5195.4202.7210.2218.03.3%1.7%4.5%4.0%79.276.477.078.181.782.481.180.780.078.078.178.278.378.478.578.678.778.878.979.079.179.279.379.479.579.651.453.050.651.157.265.469.472.773.475.176.579.483.588.794.2100.1106.1112.4119.0125.9133.2140.8148.8157.3166.2175.74.5%2.1%5.7%5.3%35.536.633.635.440.347.251.955.958.258.459.561.865.169.173.578.082.787.692.898.1103.8109.7116.0122.6129.6137.06.4%1.2%5.7%5.2%69.069.266.569.370.472.274.976.979.377.877.877.977.978.078.078.078.078.078.078.078.078.078.078.078.078.076.679.163.260.363.672.373.774.174.968.968.871.274.478.182.286.691.396.1101.3106.7112.2118.0123.9130.1136.5143.4-0.3%-4.2%5.0%3.9%58.459.449.046.253.559.261.161.460.456.056.058.060.763.767.170.774.678.682.887.391.996.7101.7106.7112.1117.80.4%-3.6%5.1%4.0%76.275.277.576.684.281.882.882.980.681.481.481.581.581.681.681.781.781.881.881.981.982.082.082.182.182.2238.0244.9210.8205.1221.3246.3258.9273.4289.3286.5294.7309.1325.0340.8357.6375.2393.5412.6432.5453.2474.9496.9519.3542.7567.2593.02.5%0.9%4.9%4.3%181.0182.3157.3154.8175.9195.8206.8219.5231.3225.5232.2243.7256.5269.2282.7296.8311.6327.0343.0359.7377.2394.9413.1432.0451.9472.73.1%0.2%5.0%4.3%76.074.474.675.579.579.579.980.379.978.778.878.878.979.079.179.179.279.279.379.479.479.579.579.679.779.7* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

# 73 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE14U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERFORECASTASSUMPTIONSSEATSPERAIRCRAFTMILEFISCALYEARDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMATLANTICLATIN AMERICAPACIFICTOTAL(Seats)(Seats)(Seats)(Seats)(Seats)(Seats)Historical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025148.8146.6148.0148.5149.7150.4150.5150.6150.0149.2149.7150.0149.5148.9148.4148.5148.9149.3149.5149.7150.0150.2150.4150.6150.8151.0233.7232.6233.8231.5231.6230.8229.4229.2229.2229.7230.2230.7231.2231.7232.2232.7233.2233.7234.2234.7235.2235.7236.2236.7237.2237.7179.5174.7172.5171.7174.4175.5175.2176.2177.8178.3178.8179.3179.8180.3180.8181.3181.8182.3182.8183.3183.8184.3184.8185.3185.8186.3307.8304.1295.2287.6281.8278.7274.4279.6280.6281.4282.1282.9283.6284.4285.1285.9286.6287.4288.1288.9289.6290.4291.1291.9292.6293.4236.6233.6228.6224.9224.1223.4221.4222.1223.4222.7223.1223.7224.2224.6224.9225.3225.8226.2226.6227.0227.5227.9228.3228.7229.1229.5164.5162.4162.3162.2163.4165.0165.7166.3166.9167.3167.9168.4168.1167.6167.5168.0168.7169.5170.0170.6171.2171.8172.3172.9173.4173.9* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

74TABLE15U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERFORECASTASSUMPTIONSAVERAGEPASSENGERTRIPLENGTHFISCALYEARDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMATLANTICLATIN AMERICAPACIFICTOTAL(Miles)(Miles)(Miles)(Miles)(Miles)(Miles)Historical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025872.6886.7911.8939.1972.0974.1995.5992.7999.4993.6999.31,008.31,017.61,027.01,035.31,042.81,050.01,057.01,064.11,071.21,078.41,085.61,092.81,100.11,107.41,114.84,168.14,211.84,147.54,105.44,125.74,133.14,175.44,247.84,332.74,354.94,375.74,400.54,425.74,447.04,468.54,490.04,511.64,533.44,550.94,568.44,586.14,603.84,621.64,639.54,657.54,675.51,675.21,688.31,622.51,588.31,599.71,611.11,637.01,634.31,654.81,682.81,684.41,684.41,690.91,703.71,721.51,742.81,762.81,783.01,805.21,825.91,846.81,866.21,886.61,907.21,927.21,949.45,219.95,228.85,077.64,419.64,365.74,466.14,390.44,515.14,583.54,542.54,556.74,565.54,574.24,578.64,587.34,591.74,600.44,604.84,609.14,617.94,622.34,631.14,639.94,644.34,648.84,657.63,397.33,405.03,251.53,061.03,068.33,051.23,037.03,054.53,111.03,108.03,125.13,142.63,155.13,161.53,172.33,186.43,201.43,216.43,231.53,246.53,260.93,274.03,286.83,299.03,310.73,324.91,091.41,111.91,123.51,140.21,186.61,201.11,233.41,237.31,262.51,273.21,281.71,292.51,301.71,310.51,324.61,339.31,353.21,367.71,383.11,398.81,414.51,430.01,445.31,460.71,476.31,492.4* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

# 75 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE16U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERFORECASTASSUMPTIONSPASSENGERYIELDSFISCALYEARREVENUE PER PASSENGER MILEDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMCURRENT $(Cents)FY 2008 $(Cents)CURRENT $(Cents)FY 2008 $(Cents)CURRENT $(Cents)FY 2008 $(Cents)Historical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2514.0313.5312.1212.0811.5211.4512.3612.4513.0912.8912.9112.9412.9913.0613.1613.2713.3913.5113.6413.7713.8914.0214.1614.2914.4214.56-0.9%-0.7%0.7%0.6%17.6216.4614.5314.1413.1812.6913.2113.0013.0912.9112.7812.5912.4012.2112.0511.9011.7611.6311.4911.3611.2311.1110.9810.8510.7310.61-3.6%-1.2%-1.3%-1.2%10.4610.349.789.9210.4710.8711.6312.4513.3713.2313.2813.3713.5013.6513.8013.9514.1014.2614.4214.5714.7314.9015.0615.2315.4015.573.1%-0.3%1.0%0.9%13.1212.5811.7211.6211.9912.0512.4313.0113.3713.2513.1513.0212.8912.7612.6412.5112.3912.2712.1512.0311.9111.8011.6811.5711.4511.340.2%-0.8%-1.0%-1.0%13.0612.6611.5111.5311.2411.2912.1512.4513.1813.0013.0313.0813.1613.2513.3613.4913.6313.7613.9114.0514.1914.3414.4914.6414.7914.940.1%-0.6%0.9%0.7%16.4115.4013.7913.5012.8712.5112.9913.0013.1813.0212.9012.7312.5612.3912.2412.1011.9711.8511.7211.6011.4811.3511.2411.1211.0010.89-2.7%-1.1%-1.2%-1.1%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

76TABLE17U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERFORECASTASSUMPTIONSINTERNATIONALPASSENGERYIELDSBYREGIONFISCALYEARREVENUE PER PASSENGER MILEATLANTICLATIN AMERICA1PACIFICTOTAL INTERNATIONALCURRENT $FY 2008 $CURRENT $FY 2008 $CURRENT $FY 2008 $CURRENT $FY 2008 $(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)Historical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-259.739.719.299.6010.1510.7511.6412.4613.2913.0113.0913.1813.3013.4513.5913.7413.8914.0414.1914.3414.5014.6514.8114.9715.1315.304.0%-0.7%1.0%0.8%12.2111.8211.1311.2411.6211.9112.4413.0113.2913.0212.9612.8312.7012.5712.4512.3212.2012.0811.9611.8411.7211.6011.4911.3711.2611.151.1%-1.3%-1.0%-1.0%13.0013.3812.4912.4012.2812.1612.6813.3714.1914.4014.4214.5114.6514.8114.9715.1315.2915.4615.6315.7915.9716.1416.3116.4916.6716.851.1%0.8%1.0%1.0%16.3216.2814.9814.5214.0513.4813.5613.9614.1914.4214.2714.1313.9913.8513.7113.5713.4413.3013.1713.0412.9112.7812.6512.5212.4012.28-1.7%0.3%-1.0%-0.8%9.999.388.678.539.6110.0410.7311.6112.7312.4612.4812.5612.6812.8212.9513.0913.2313.3813.5213.6713.8213.9614.1214.2714.4214.583.1%-1.0%1.0%0.8%12.5411.4110.399.9911.0011.1211.4712.1312.7312.4812.3512.2312.1011.9811.8611.7511.6311.5111.4011.2811.1711.0610.9510.8410.7310.620.2%-1.5%-1.0%-1.1%10.4610.349.789.9210.4710.8711.6312.4513.3713.2313.2813.3713.5013.6513.8013.9514.1014.2614.4214.5714.7314.9015.0615.2315.4015.573.1%-0.3%1.0%0.9%13.1212.5811.7211.6211.9912.0512.4313.0113.3713.2513.1513.0212.8912.7612.6412.5112.3912.2712.1512.0311.9111.8011.6811.5711.4511.340.2%-0.8%-1.0%-1.0%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Mainline Air Carrier Only

# 77 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE18U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERFORECASTASSUMPTIONSJETFUELPRICESFISCALYEARDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMCURRENT $FY 2008 $CURRENT $FY 2008 $CURRENT $FY 2008 $(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)(Cents)Historical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2571.4982.3566.9782.22100.75149.39194.69194.01291.13178.82175.56188.43197.32203.63209.04213.90218.28221.92225.38229.33232.44235.94239.57243.23246.97250.7719.2%-22.3%2.8%-0.9%89.73100.2080.2996.29115.32165.57208.12202.64291.13179.05173.78183.44188.40190.42191.46191.88191.78190.96189.95189.31187.93186.83185.81184.76183.74182.7415.8%-22.7%0.8%-2.7%79.3586.1071.7186.01105.76157.26204.69203.29314.43193.13189.61203.51213.12219.92225.77231.02235.74239.68243.41247.68251.05254.82258.74262.70266.73270.8418.8%-22.3%2.8%-0.9%99.60104.7685.97100.73121.05174.29218.81212.33314.43193.39187.68198.12203.47205.66206.78207.23207.12206.25205.16204.46202.97201.78200.68199.55198.45197.3615.5%-22.7%0.8%-2.7%73.5783.3768.2883.28102.07151.58197.72196.90298.78183.52180.17193.38202.51208.98214.53219.52224.01227.75231.30235.36238.55242.14245.87249.62253.46257.3619.1%-22.3%2.8%-0.9%92.34101.4481.8697.53116.83167.99211.36205.66298.78183.76178.34188.26193.35195.42196.49196.92196.82195.98194.94194.28192.87191.74190.69189.62188.57187.5415.8%-22.7%0.8%-2.7%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

78TABLE19U.S.COMMERCIALAIRCARRIERSAIRCARGOREVENUETONMILES1FISCALYEARALL-CARGO CARRIER RTMS(Millions)PASSENGER CARRIER RTMS(Millions)TOTAL RTMS(Millions)DOMESTICINT’L.TOTALDOMESTICINT’L.TOTALDOMESTICINT’L.TOTALHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2510,283.59,992.39,629.911,153.413,040.813,007.912,481.212,792.712,160.411,172.911,478.611,918.112,327.312,736.313,065.113,377.413,698.214,028.014,366.814,715.215,073.115,441.015,819.116,207.616,607.017,017.52.1%-2.8%2.8%2.0%7,573.17,380.08,202.111,766.812,748.314,581.215,475.216,163.115,595.414,539.515,336.216,444.917,674.818,937.620,255.621,682.823,183.424,754.826,419.628,162.329,979.931,855.133,843.135,948.638,198.040,617.29.4%-0.8%6.9%5.8%17,856.617,372.417,832.022,920.225,789.127,589.027,956.428,955.927,755.825,712.426,814.828,363.030,002.131,673.933,320.735,060.236,881.638,782.840,786.442,877.545,053.047,296.149,662.252,156.354,805.057,634.75.7%-1.7%5.3%4.4%4,415.23,945.63,337.43,819.13,300.13,081.73,229.43,025.32,148.01,942.71,964.32,006.92,042.22,075.42,093.72,107.82,121.82,135.52,149.02,162.32,175.42,188.12,200.62,212.62,224.42,235.7-8.6%-4.4%1.0%0.2%7,784.67,166.96,594.06,775.17,373.48,547.78,483.58,051.39,026.38,307.08,649.19,154.29,711.010,269.010,839.911,451.112,081.912,729.813,405.014,098.114,806.315,520.116,265.117,041.717,860.118,730.01.9%-2.1%5.5%4.4%12,199.911,112.59,931.410,594.210,673.511,629.511,712.811,076.611,174.310,249.710,613.411,161.111,753.212,344.512,933.613,558.914,203.714,865.315,554.016,260.416,981.717,708.318,465.719,254.320,084.520,965.7-1.1%-2.5%4.8%3.8%14,698.713,937.912,967.414,972.416,340.916,089.615,710.515,818.014,308.413,115.613,442.913,925.014,369.514,811.715,158.915,485.215,820.016,163.516,515.816,877.517,248.517,629.118,019.618,420.318,831.419,253.2-0.3%-3.1%2.5%1.8%15,357.814,547.014,796.118,541.920,121.723,128.923,958.724,214.424,621.722,846.623,985.325,599.127,385.829,206.631,095.533,133.935,265.237,484.639,824.642,260.444,786.247,375.250,108.352,990.356,058.159,347.26.1%-1.3%6.4%5.3%30,056.528,484.927,763.433,514.436,462.639,218.539,669.240,032.438,930.035,962.137,428.139,524.141,755.344,018.346,254.348,619.151,085.353,648.156,340.459,137.962,034.765,004.368,127.971,410.674,889.578,600.43.3%-1.9%5.2%4.2%* Source: Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation.1Includes freight/express and mail revenue ton miles on mainline air carriers and regionals/commuters.2Domestic figures from 2000 through this line exclude Airborne Express, Inc.; international figures for 2003 and beyond include newreporting of contract service by U.S. carriers for foreign flag carriers.3Domestic figures from this line and beyond include Airborne Express. Inc.

# 79 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE20U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERSPASSENGERJETAIRCRAFTCALENDARYEARLARGE NARROWBODYLARGE WIDEBODYLARGEJETSREGIONALJETSTOTALJETS2 ENGINE3 ENGINE4 ENGINETOTAL2 ENGINE3 ENGINE4 ENGINETOTALHistorical200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-253,3643,4123,3863,3783,4023,3083,3023,3543,1372,7602,9403,0403,1083,1313,1883,2463,3003,3643,4903,5643,6143,6533,7333,8143,9013,993-0.9%-3.2%2.1%1.4%38518710770573726291313131182110000000000-34.5%0.0%NANA00000000111000000000000000NA0.0%NANA3,7493,5993,4933,4483,4593,3453,3283,3833,1512,7742,9543,0513,1163,1333,1893,2473,3003,3643,4903,5643,6143,6533,7333,8143,9013,993-2.1%-3.2%2.0%1.4%4244514724644734664634774554374634875215515675946246566877207648018428759139600.9%0.9%5.1%4.5%16989693734291912997531000000000000-30.7%-11.8%NANA12085816753544947413838383838383429241812600000-12.6%-3.7%-16.9%NA713625622568560549531536505484508530562590605628653680705732770801842875913960-4.2%0.3%4.2%3.9%4,4624,2244,1154,0164,0193,8943,8593,9193,6563,2583,4623,5813,6783,7233,7943,8753,9534,0444,1954,2964,3844,4544,5754,6894,8144,953-2.5%-2.7%2.4%1.8%26203651239648710712513514514715916817818519520522023024025026027016.3%19.9%5.8%6.9%4,4884,2444,1184,0224,0243,9063,8983,9833,7433,3653,5873,7163,8233,8703,9534,0434,1314,2294,3904,5014,6044,6844,8154,9395,0745,223-2.2%-2.1%2.5%2.0%

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

80TABLE21U.S.MAINLINEAIRCARRIERSCARGOJETAIRCRAFTCALENDARYEARLARGE NARROWBODYLARGE WIDEBODYTOTAL2 ENGINE3 ENGINE4 ENGINETOTAL2 ENGINE3 ENGINE4 ENGINETOTALHistorical200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-25166180175175174164162162162163168195239277315351373395413430448466485503522540-0.3%1.8%10.3%7.3%33234331527727723322016214914413410779472000000000000-9.5%-5.2%NANA176143114104102907875635749412919910000000000-12.1%-11.8%-100.0%NA674666604556553487460399374364351343347343344352373395413430448466485503522540-7.1%-3.1%2.5%2.2%1641902142032022462642762722802993233403583814054204364534734915095335555776006.5%4.8%5.1%4.8%1581921651651631932082132122142212282332372412472482452422412412412412412412413.7%2.1%0.9%0.8%68857369757580869185848789891001131241371501581661731811881962033.7%-3.9%7.0%4.8%3904674524374405145525755755796046386626847227657928188458728989239559841,0141,0445.0%2.5%4.0%3.6%1,0641,1331,0569939931,0011,0129749499439559811,0091,0271,0661,1171,1651,2131,2581,3021,3461,3891,4401,4871,5361,584-1.4%0.3%3.5%3.1%

# 81 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE22TOTALJETFUELANDAVIATIONGASOLINEFUELCONSUMPTIONU.S.CIVILAVIATIONAIRCRAFT(Millions of Gallons)FISCALYEARJET FUELAVIATION GASOLINETOTALFUELCONSUMEDU.S. AIR CARRIERS1GENERALAVIATIONTOTALAIRCARRIERGENERALAVIATIONTOTALDOMESTICINT’L.TOTALHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2514,74614,46912,65312,88613,50213,97813,46113,53813,06011,32211,43511,70612,13112,58412,83713,05013,24713,44013,63413,83114,03214,23614,44414,65614,87315,093-1.5%-6.4%2.1%0.9%5,2975,3954,8444,9904,8355,3785,8516,0456,2796,3756,4626,6786,9177,1457,3867,6347,8898,1498,4148,6858,9659,2419,5159,79610,08710,3882.1%1.4%3.3%3.0%20,04319,86417,49717,87618,33719,35619,31319,58319,33917,69617,89718,38319,04819,72920,22220,68321,13621,58922,04822,51722,99723,47723,95924,45324,95925,482-0.4%-3.8%2.5%1.6%9729189389321,2311,4491,5691,5431,5501,6561,7421,8231,9011,9822,0652,1422,2142,2862,3582,4262,4992,5732,6462,7202,7952,8686.0%6.0%3.7%3.7%21,01520,78218,43518,80819,56820,80520,88121,12720,88919,35319,63820,20620,94921,71122,28722,82523,34923,87524,40624,94325,49626,05026,60527,17327,75528,350-0.1%-3.0%2.6%1.8%222222222222222222222222220.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%3332792772722733633523513493453443423363313283263263273283293293293313353403460.6%-0.6%-0.5%-0.1%3352812792742753653543533513473463443383333303283283293303313313313333373423480.6%-0.6%-0.4%-0.1%21,35021,06418,71419,08319,84321,17021,23521,47921,24019,70019,98520,55021,28722,04522,61723,15323,67724,20424,73625,27425,82726,38126,93727,51028,09628,697-0.1%-3.0%2.6%1.8%* Source: Air carrier jet fuel, Form 41, U.S. Department of Transportation; all others, FAA APO estimates.1Includes both passenger (mainline and regional air carrier) and cargo carriers.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

82TABLE23U.S.REGIONALCARRIERFORECASTASSUMPTIONSFISCALYEARAVERAGE SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILEAVERAGE PASSENGER TRIP LENGTHREVENUE PERPASSENGER MILE**DOMESTIC(Seats/Mile)INT’L.(Seats/Mile)SYSTEM(Seats/Mile)DOMESTIC(Miles)INT’L.(Miles)SYSTEM(Miles)CURRENT $(Cents)2008$(Cents)Historical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2538.440.542.844.346.648.649.349.952.853.754.655.456.256.857.658.359.059.760.561.262.062.763.464.164.865.64.0%1.7%1.3%1.3%41.843.041.055.853.952.452.254.054.354.654.955.255.555.856.156.456.757.057.357.657.958.258.558.859.159.43.3%0.6%0.5%0.5%38.540.642.844.546.848.749.450.052.853.754.755.456.256.857.558.258.959.760.461.161.962.663.364.064.765.44.0%1.7%1.2%1.3%286.5302.1336.3373.9410.9434.7450.4451.5460.4453.6462.0470.5479.0487.5495.9504.4512.9521.3529.8538.3546.8555.2563.7572.2580.6589.16.1%0.2%1.7%1.5%260.0302.9320.4302.0352.9434.2467.2518.1523.1528.1533.1538.1543.1548.1553.1558.1563.1568.1573.1578.1583.1588.1593.1598.1603.1608.19.1%1.0%0.9%0.9%285.5302.1335.8372.1409.4434.7450.7452.9461.7455.2463.6472.0480.4488.8497.2505.6513.9522.3530.7539.1547.5555.9564.3572.7581.1589.56.2%0.2%1.7%1.4%30.2831.6527.4925.7423.9819.6719.8820.1821.5221.9821.2721.2621.2821.3421.4221.5421.6721.8021.9422.0822.2122.3522.4922.6322.7722.91-4.2%-0.6%0.4%0.4%38.0338.5132.9630.1427.4521.8021.2521.0721.5222.0121.0520.6920.3219.9519.6219.3219.0418.7618.4918.2217.9617.7017.4417.1916.9416.70-6.9%-1.1%-1.6%-1.5%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.** Reporting carriers.

# 83 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE24U.S.REGIONALCARRIERSSCHEDULEDPASSENGERTRAFFIC(In Millions)FISCALYEARREVENUE PASSENGERSREVENUE PASSENGER MILESDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2579.780.488.6105.0125.9146.4152.2156.2157.4150.3153.8160.6168.1176.3183.4189.8196.0202.3208.8215.5222.5229.8237.3245.2253.4261.98.9%-1.1%3.8%3.0%3.13.12.82.83.13.33.53.43.43.33.43.53.73.94.04.24.34.44.64.74.95.05.25.45.55.71.2%-1.1%3.8%3.0%82.883.691.5107.8129.1149.7155.7159.6160.8153.5157.2164.1171.8180.1187.4193.9200.3206.7213.3220.2227.4234.8242.5250.6258.9267.68.7%-1.1%3.8%3.0%22,82524,29929,80739,25951,73763,65468,53270,52872,44268,15071,05675,54580,53485,91790,94095,719100,511105,450110,600115,992121,642127,565133,775140,287147,114154,27315.5%-1.0%5.5%4.5%8149479118371,1081,4171,6341,7721,8021,7371,7951,8921,9992,1152,2212,3192,4162,5162,6192,7272,8402,9583,0823,2113,3453,48710.4%-0.2%4.7%4.0%23,63925,24630,71840,09652,84565,07170,16672,30074,24469,88772,85177,43782,53388,03293,16198,038102,927107,966113,219118,719124,483130,524136,857143,497150,460157,75915.4%-0.9%5.5%4.5%* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

84TABLE25U.S.REGIONALCARRIERSSCHEDULEDPASSENGERCAPACITY,TRAFFIC,ANDLOADFACTORSFISCALYEARDOMESTICINTERNATIONALSYSTEMASMs(MIL)RPMs(MIL)% LOADFACTORASMs(MIL)RPMs(MIL)% LOADFACTORASMs(MIL)RPMs(MIL)% LOADFACTORHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2538,33241,41848,66060,49176,01590,02891,45893,45298,36892,90996,849102,948109,725117,039123,862130,351136,859143,565150,558157,880165,553173,597182,031190,874200,147209,86912.5%-0.8%5.5%4.6%22,82524,29929,80739,25951,73763,65468,53270,52872,44268,15071,05675,54580,53485,91790,94095,719100,511105,450110,600115,992121,642127,565133,775140,287147,114154,27315.5%-1.0%5.5%4.5%59.558.761.364.968.170.774.975.573.673.473.473.473.473.473.473.473.473.573.573.573.573.573.573.573.573.51,3381,6331,4921,4471,7482,2132,3872,5502,5752,4652,5292,6462,7772,9183,0433,1563,2663,3783,4933,6133,7383,8684,0034,1444,2904,4438.5%-0.9%4.0%3.3%8149479118371,1081,4171,6341,7721,8021,7371,7951,8921,9992,1152,2212,3192,4162,5162,6192,7272,8402,9583,0823,2113,3453,48710.4%-0.2%4.7%4.0%60.858.061.157.863.464.068.569.570.070.571.071.572.072.573.073.574.074.575.075.576.076.577.077.578.078.539,67043,05150,15261,93877,76392,24093,84596,002100,94395,37499,378105,594112,502119,957126,905133,507140,125146,942154,051161,494169,292177,465186,034195,018204,437214,31212.4%-0.8%5.5%4.5%23,63925,24630,71840,09652,84565,07170,16672,30074,24469,88772,85177,43782,53388,03293,16198,038102,927107,966113,219118,719124,483130,524136,857143,497150,460157,75915.4%-0.9%5.5%4.5%59.658.661.364.768.070.574.875.373.673.373.373.373.473.473.473.473.573.573.573.573.573.573.673.673.673.6* Source: Form 41 and 298C, U.S. Department of Transportation

# 85 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE26U.S.REGIONALCARRIERSPASSENGERAIRCRAFTAS OFJANUARY 1REGIONAL AIRCRAFTLESSTHAN9 SEATS10 TO 19SEATS20 TO 30SEATS31 TO 40 SEATSOVER 40 SEATSTOTAL FLEETPROPJETTOTALPROPJET*TOTALNON JETJETTOTALHistorical200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-25470490490447451449453453451428410388370347329307284266244244239239235235230226-0.5%-4.7%-5.3%-4.0%34325025324623722020417210710297928882787367635858575756565554-13.6%-4.8%-5.2%-3.9%262248194137108998879686562585652504643403737363635353534-15.5%-4.5%-5.3%-4.0%474445396280280253224228180175169164157151146140135130124119113108103979490-11.4%-3.1%-3.9%-4.0%741101181169698969838249440000000000000-8.0%-51.3%-100.0%-100.0%548555514396376351320326218199178168161151146140135130124119113108103979490-10.9%-9.6%-4.4%-5.1%155148128106898187101121135150164180192206221234246260278295313332348362380-3.0%11.3%7.0%7.0%4966729201,2171,4861,6301,6321,6561,6171,4001,5291,5811,6581,7281,7911,7891,7811,7851,7531,7771,8311,8981,9772,0652,1562,24915.9%-2.8%1.8%2.0%651820104813231,5751,7111,7191,7571,7381,5351,6791,7451,8381,9201,9972,0102,0152,0312,0132,0552,1262,2112,3092,4132,5182,62913.1%-1.7%2.4%2.5%1,7041,5811,4611,2161,1651,1021,0561,033927905888866851824809787763745723736740753761771776784-7.3%-2.1%-1.8%-1.0%5707821,0381,3331,5821,7281,7281,7541,6551,4241,5381,5851,6621,7281,7911,7891,7811,7851,7531,7771,8311,8981,9772,0652,1562,24914.3%-3.6%1.8%1.8%2,2742,3632,4992,5492,7472,8302,7842,7872,5822,3292,4262,4512,5132,5522,6002,5762,5442,5302,4762,5132,5712,6512,7382,8362,9323,0331.6%-3.1%0.6%1.0%*Independence Air A319 aircraft are included in Table 20 - U.S. Mainline Air Carriers Passenger Jet Aircraft.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

86TABLE27ACTIVEGENERALAVIATIONANDAIRTAXIAIRCRAFTAS OFDEC. 31FIXED WINGROTORCRAFTEXPERIMENTALSPORTAIRCRAFTOTHERTOTALGENERALAVIATIONFLEETTOTALPISTONSTOTALTURBINESPISTONTURBINESINGLEENGINEMULTIENGINETOTALTURBOPROPTURBOJETTOTALPISTONTURBINETOTALHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-25149,422145,034143,503143,265146,613148,101145,036147,569146,590145,735144,960144,250143,775143,510143,505143,530143,575143,720144,030144,440144,880145,415146,050146,780147,610148,545-0.2%-0.6%0.0%0.1%21,09118,19217,48317,49118,46919,41218,70819,33719,13018,96518,79518,63018,45518,27518,09517,91017,72017,54017,34517,15516,96516,77016,58516,39516,20516,005-1.2%-0.9%-1.0%-1.0%170,513163,226160,986160,756165,082167,513163,744166,906165,720164,700163,755162,880162,230161,785161,600161,440161,295161,260161,375161,595161,845162,185162,635163,175163,815164,550-0.4%-0.6%-0.1%0.0%5,7626,5966,8417,6898,3797,9428,0639,5149,6009,6659,7409,86010,01510,18010,36010,54010,74010,93511,12511,31011,48011,65011,81011,96512,11012,2456.6%0.7%1.7%1.4%7,0017,7878,3557,9979,2989,82310,37910,38511,40012,32513,15513,94514,71015,53016,32517,10017,87018,63519,39020,15020,94521,76522,61023,45524,31025,1656.3%7.4%4.8%4.8%12,76314,38315,19615,68617,67717,76518,44219,89921,00021,99022,89523,80524,72525,71026,68527,64028,61029,57030,51531,46032,42533,41534,42035,42036,42037,4106.4%4.4%3.5%3.5%2,6802,2922,3512,1232,3153,0393,2642,7693,0703,3203,5653,7903,9954,1904,3804,5504,7054,8504,9855,1155,2505,3855,5205,6555,7905,9251.7%7.8%3.9%3.9%4,4704,4914,2974,4035,5065,6895,8956,7987,1457,4407,7358,0108,2658,5108,7508,9709,1759,3709,5509,7359,92010,11010,30010,49010,68010,8706.0%4.0%2.5%2.5%7,1506,7836,6486,5267,8218,7289,1599,56710,21510,76011,30011,80012,26012,70013,13013,52013,88014,22014,53514,85015,17015,49515,82016,14516,47016,7954.6%5.2%3.0%3.0%20,40720,42121,93620,55022,80023,62723,04723,22824,10024,86025,61526,36027,10027,78028,45529,12529,73530,34030,94031,48532,02532,55533,08033,60034,11534,6252.1%3.1%2.3%2.2%NANANANANA1701,2736,0666,9657,8658,7659,76510,76511,66512,16512,66513,06513,46513,76514,06514,36514,66514,96515,26515,56515,86512.2%5.1%5.0%6,7006,6336,4786,0885,9396,4596,2775,9406,0156,0606,0856,0956,0906,0806,0706,0606,0506,0406,0306,0206,0106,0056,0005,9955,9905,985-1.3%0.6%-0.1%0.0%217,533211,446211,244209,606219,319224,262221,942231,606234,015236,235238,415240,705243,170245,720248,105250,450252,635254,895257,160259,475261,840264,320266,920269,600272,375275,2300.9%0.9%0.9%1.0%173,193165,518163,337162,879167,397170,552167,008169,675168,790168,020167,320166,670166,225165,975165,980165,990166,000166,110166,360166,710167,095167,570168,155168,830169,605170,475-0.3%-0.4%0.0%0.1%17,23318,87419,49320,08923,18323,45424,33726,69728,14529,43030,63031,81532,99034,22035,43536,61037,78538,94040,06541,19542,34543,52544,72045,91047,10048,2806.3%4.3%3.3%3.2%* Source: 2000-2007, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.

# 87 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE28ACTIVEGENERALAVIATIONANDAIRTAXIHOURSFLOWN(In Thousands)CALENDARYEARFIXED WINGROTORCRAFTEXPERIMENTALSPORTAIRCRAFTOTHERTOTALGENERALAVIATIONHOURSTOTALPISTONSTOTALTURBINESPISTONTURBINESINGLEENGINEMULTIENGINETOTALTURBOPROPTURBOJETTOTALPISTONTURBINETOTALHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2518,08916,54916,32516,68015,36313,73913,97613,57113,53013,28913,15012,97312,86612,80412,79112,86712,93513,07113,21013,35313,49813,61713,80014,04414,31214,643-3.6%-1.4%0.3%0.5%3,4002,6442,5662,3172,7632,6772,5502,6862,5912,5292,4792,3942,3232,2622,2032,1612,1262,1112,0802,0462,0111,9601,9391,9621,9852,019-3.3%-2.2%-2.1%-1.5%21,48919,19318,89118,99718,12616,41616,52516,25716,12115,81815,62915,36715,18915,06714,99415,02815,06115,18215,29015,40015,50915,57715,73916,00616,29716,663-3.5%-1.5%-0.1%0.2%1,9861,7731,8501,9222,1612,1602,1622,6612,5942,6142,6402,6882,7372,7752,8142,8492,8772,9112,9563,0043,0413,0683,1103,1533,1903,2193.4%0.9%1.4%1.3%2,7552,6542,7452,7043,7193,7674,0773,9384,0434,4274,7455,0405,3335,6515,9736,2836,5906,8987,2047,5127,8358,1688,5138,8609,2149,5694.9%8.3%5.1%5.2%4,7414,4274,5954,6265,8805,9276,2406,5996,6377,0417,3847,7288,0708,4268,7869,1329,4689,80910,16010,51510,87511,23711,62312,01312,40412,7884.3%5.5%3.9%3.9%5304744534485146789187047037307858378859309751,0151,0521,0871,1211,1531,1861,2201,2531,2871,3211,3553.6%5.7%4.2%3.9%1,6611,4781,4221,6872,0202,4382,5282,5412,4842,5092,6152,7142,8082,8982,9883,0703,1483,2233,2933,3663,4383,5133,5883,6633,7393,8155.2%2.6%2.8%2.6%2,1911,9521,8752,1352,5343,1163,4463,2453,1873,2383,4003,5523,6923,8283,9624,0854,2014,3114,4144,5184,6244,7324,8414,9505,0605,1704.8%3.3%3.1%2.9%1,3071,1571,3451,2931,3221,3401,2181,2751,3161,3511,3851,4321,4801,5241,5691,6141,6561,6981,7411,7801,8201,8591,8981,9381,9772,0170.1%2.6%2.8%2.5%NANANANANA96626030535139945350956359963666970473476579682986389893497114.4%7.2%7.1%374287333264249271211215219222224225226227227228229230231231232233234235236237-6.5%1.1%0.4%0.5%30,10227,01627,03927,31528,11127,07827,70527,85227,78428,02028,42028,75729,16629,63530,13830,72331,28331,93432,56933,20933,85634,46735,19936,04036,90837,846-1.0%1.1%1.8%1.8%22,01919,66719,34419,44518,64017,09417,44316,96116,82416,54816,41416,20416,07415,99715,96916,04316,11316,27016,41116,55216,69516,79616,99217,29317,61818,018-3.3%-1.2%0.2%0.4%6,4025,9056,0176,3137,9008,3658,7679,1419,1219,5499,99910,44310,87711,32411,77412,20212,61613,03313,45313,88114,31314,75015,21115,67616,14316,6024.5%4.7%3.7%3.6%* Source: 2000-2007, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Surveys.1 Estimates have been revised to reflect changes in edit and estimation procedures, and may not be comparable to estimates prior to 1995.Note: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the previous calendar year.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

88TABLE29ACTIVEPILOTSBYTYPEOFCERTIFICATEAS OFDEC. 31STUDENTSRECREA-TIONALSPORTPILOTPRIVATECOMMERCIALAIRLINETRANSPORTROTOR-CRAFTONLYGLIDERONLYTOTALPILOTSTOTALLESSAT PILOTSINSTRUMENTRATEDPILOTS1Historical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2593,06494,42085,99187,29687,91087,21384,86684,33980,98976,30072,05072,80073,55074,30075,25076,20077,20078,20079,20080,20081,25082,30083,35084,40085,50086,600-1.7%-5.7%1.2%0.4%340316317310291278239239252250250250250250250250250250250250250250250250250250-3.7%-0.4%0.0%0.0%NANANANANA1349392,0312,6236,5008,50010,20011,00011,55012,15012,80013,45014,15014,90015,65016,45017,20018,00018,85019,70020,60080.0%6.8%12.9%251,561243,823245,230241,045235,994228,619219,233211,096222,596226,650224,400218,050212,500210,250209,850210,250211,100212,200213,450214,750216,100217,500218,950220,400221,900223,400-1.5%0.4%-0.4%0.0%121,858120,502125,920123,990122,592120,614117,610115,127124,746125,400124,450125,050123,100120,000117,300119,050120,800122,550124,450126,350128,350130,400132,450134,500136,600138,7000.3%-0.1%0.3%0.6%141,596144,702144,708143,504142,160141,992141,935143,953146,838147,650148,400149,100149,700150,300150,850151,350151,800152,250152,700153,150153,600154,050154,450154,850155,250155,6500.5%0.5%0.3%0.3%7,7757,7277,7707,9168,5869,51810,69012,29014,64715,39015,68015,81015,87015,89015,90015,91015,94016,05016,20016,39016,60016,82017,06017,31017,57017,8308.2%3.5%0.6%1.2%9,3878,47321,826 2/20,95021,10021,36921,59721,27421,05521,83021,98022,08022,12022,15022,17022,19022,22022,24022,26022,29022,31022,35022,39022,44022,48022,52010.6%2.2%0.1%0.4%625,581619,963609,936625,011618,633609,737597,109590,349613,746619,970615,710613,340608,090604,690603,720608,000612,760617,890623,410629,030634,910640,870646,900653,000659,250665,550-0.2%0.2%0.3%0.5%483,985475,261465,228481,507476,473467,745455,174446,396466,908472,320467,310464,240458,390454,390452,870456,650460,960465,640470,710475,880481,310486,820492,450498,150504,000509,900-0.4%0.0%0.3%0.5%311,944315,276317,389315,413313,545311,500309,333309,865325,247323,500321,800320,100321,800323,500325,200326,900328,600331,100333,600336,200338,800342,200345,700349,200352,700356,3000.5%-0.5%0.5%0.5%* Source: FAA U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics.1 Instrument rated pilots should not be added to other categories in deriving total.2 In March 2001, the FAA Registry changed the definition of this pilot category. It added approximately 13,000 to this pilot category.Note: An active pilot is a person with a pilot certificate and a valid medical certificate.

# 89 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE30GENERALAVIATIONAIRCRAFTFUELCONSUMPTION(In Millions of Gallons)CALENDARYEARFIXED WINGROTORCRAFTEXPERIMENTAL/OTHERSPORTTOTAL FUEL CONSUMEDPISTONTURBINESINGLEENGINEMULTIENGINETURBO-PROPTURBO-JETAVGASJET FUELTOTALPISTONTURBINEHistorical200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-25200.8180.4177.9181.8167.5218.4208.2203.2203.6201.0199.9198.2194.6191.7189.6188.8188.9189.9191.0192.1193.2193.9195.5198.0200.8204.40.2%-0.9%-0.3%0.0%108.476.474.266.780.1111.9104.8110.9107.6105.5103.9100.996.993.490.187.585.684.682.981.279.477.075.876.376.877.7-0.1%-1.7%-2.7%-1.9%176.3149.1152.3154.5167.0196.1190.1233.9228.0229.7229.7234.0238.2239.1242.4245.4245.4248.3252.1253.6256.7259.1260.0263.5266.7269.13.3%0.4%1.1%1.0%736.7726.7745.5729.01,004.91,181.31,303.91,234.31,248.11,353.01,435.51,509.61,581.31,658.91,735.81,807.91,877.21,945.32,011.22,076.22,143.82,212.82,283.12,352.32,421.92,490.06.8%7.2%4.1%4.1%8.47.26.96.87.913.316.712.812.813.214.215.215.916.817.618.218.919.520.020.621.221.822.222.823.424.15.4%5.5%4.0%3.8%59.042.640.548.859.071.774.875.273.573.876.379.081.483.886.388.791.092.894.896.698.7100.8102.5104.6106.8108.92.8%1.9%2.6%2.3%15.215.317.817.117.517.721.622.623.323.824.425.225.926.727.528.128.929.630.230.931.632.332.833.534.134.85.5%2.3%2.6%2.4%NANANANANA0.00.31.41.61.92.12.42.62.93.13.23.43.63.73.84.04.14.24.44.64.813.3%6.7%6.6%332.8279.2276.7272.4272.9361.3351.6350.9348.9345.4344.5341.8336.0331.5327.8325.9325.6327.2327.8328.5329.3329.0330.5335.0339.7345.80.6%-0.6%-0.5%-0.1%972.0918.4938.3932.31,230.91,449.21,568.81,543.51,549.71,656.51,741.61,822.51,900.91,981.82,064.62,142.02,213.62,286.42,358.22,426.42,499.22,572.72,645.52,720.52,795.32,868.06.0%6.0%3.7%3.7%1,304.81,197.61,215.01,204.71,503.81,810.41,920.41,894.41,898.52,001.82,086.12,164.32,236.92,313.32,392.42,467.92,539.32,613.62,686.02,754.92,828.42,901.72,976.13,055.53,135.03,213.84.8%4.8%3.1%3.1%Source: FAA APO Estimates.Note: Detail may not add to total because of independent rounding.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

90TABLE31TOTALCOMBINEDAIRCRAFTOPERATIONSATAIRPORTSWITH FAAANDCONTRACTTRAFFICCONTROLSERVICE(In Thousands)FISCALYEARAIRCARRIERAIR TAXI/COMMUTERGENERAL AVIATIONMILITARYTOTALNUMBER OF TOWERSITINERANTLOCALTOTALITINERANTLOCALTOTALFAACONTRACTHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2515,158.714,762.813,209.712,823.912,934.013,532.313,256.313,611.513,762.013,069.713,500.414,052.814,663.915,256.815,770.916,169.416,510.516,841.517,196.617,545.817,889.718,254.818,616.418,983.619,357.119,746.4-1.2%-1.0%2.9%2.1%10,760.610,882.111,029.411,426.012,243.912,551.711,967.611,666.710,977.710,270.810,342.210,508.210,712.410,952.011,132.811,282.011,419.111,554.811,694.411,837.911,985.112,134.212,294.612,462.712,630.912,799.10.3%-2.9%1.5%0.9%22,844.121,433.321,450.520,231.320,007.219,315.118,741.118,577.217,367.916,160.116,163.216,311.716,541.116,785.017,059.017,326.117,599.117,864.118,136.918,416.918,699.118,962.619,263.319,616.620,007.320,442.6-3.4%-3.5%1.5%1.0%17,034.416,193.716,172.815,292.714,960.414,845.914,378.914,557.313,921.413,184.913,198.113,212.213,232.613,249.513,273.213,310.713,338.413,409.913,469.813,531.713,593.313,636.313,723.813,854.113,999.414,178.5-2.5%-2.6%0.3%0.1%39,878.537,627.037,623.235,524.034,967.634,161.033,120.033,134.531,289.429,345.029,361.329,523.929,773.630,034.530,332.130,636.830,937.531,274.031,606.631,948.632,292.432,598.932,987.133,470.734,006.734,621.1-3.0%-3.1%1.0%0.6%1,422.01,493.01,552.51,528.71,498.81,414.81,358.41,313.81,274.21,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.51,266.5-1.4%-0.3%0.0%0.0%1,448.21,437.61,511.01,480.51,480.51,449.11,417.41,405.71,217.71,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.31,204.3-2.1%-0.5%0.0%-0.1%2,870.22,930.63,063.53,009.22,979.32,863.92,775.82,719.52,491.92,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.82,470.8-1.8%-0.4%0.0%0.0%68,668.066,202.564,925.962,783.063,124.863,108.861,119.661,132.258,520.955,156.355,674.756,555.757,620.758,714.159,706.760,559.161,337.962,141.162,968.563,803.164,638.065,458.766,368.967,387.868,465.469,637.4-2.0%-2.5%1.5%1.0%266266266266266264263264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264264192206216218224229231235239239239239239239239239239239239239239239239239239239* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

# 91 FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025TABLE32TOTALTRACONOPERATIONS(In Thousands)FISCALYEARAIRCARRIERAIR TAXI/COMMUTERGENERALAVIATIONMILITARYTOTALHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2516,395.015,894.014,243.013,650.213,680.514,161.814,015.614,417.214,451.013,742.414,120.814,597.915,131.615,653.816,107.116,455.916,757.917,058.917,391.017,722.518,052.818,407.218,760.319,120.619,488.219,872.3-1.6%-1.1%2.5%1.9%11,197.711,326.511,540.011,814.512,599.012,803.112,081.411,725.811,055.410,411.510,169.210,088.010,116.510,211.310,354.510,526.310,706.410,890.311,071.711,258.811,446.111,633.611,826.912,022.712,224.812,429.8-0.2%-4.1%1.2%0.7%20,799.219,274.919,212.518,094.218,006.817,394.117,010.716,751.715,697.215,167.615,075.715,102.415,206.515,362.615,545.815,769.915,992.216,246.516,508.216,776.817,047.617,300.417,588.817,927.818,302.718,720.3-3.5%-2.0%1.2%1.0%3,466.93,465.73,523.43,202.33,021.52,801.02,670.42,499.42,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.22,387.2-4.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%51,858.849,961.048,518.946,761.147,307.847,159.945,778.145,394.143,590.941,708.741,752.942,175.542,841.943,614.944,394.745,139.345,843.746,583.047,358.148,145.448,933.749,728.450,563.251,458.352,402.953,409.6-2.1%-2.1%1.6%1.2%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.

# FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2009–2025

92TABLE33IFRAIRCRAFTHANDLEDATFAAAIRROUTETRAFFICCONTROLCENTERS(In Thousands)FISCALYEARIFR AIRCRAFT HANDLEDAIRCARRIERAIR TAXI/COMMUTERGENERALAVIATIONMILITARYTOTALHistorical*200020012002200320042005200620072008EForecast20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Avg Annual Growth:2000-082008-102010-202008-2524,987.124,865.522,819.322,743.423,856.925,004.524,394.425,006.223,838.522,478.523,388.024,426.825,547.726,651.927,640.428,451.029,177.429,896.930,666.031,436.332,209.133,027.433,850.634,693.535,556.936,457.2-0.6%-0.9%3.3%2.5%8,100.98,303.38,809.49,149.09,981.510,053.99,436.79,652.910,172.39,239.09,172.39,213.39,327.89,486.79,678.39,889.010,105.710,325.110,543.010,765.010,987.311,210.111,436.911,665.711,898.912,134.32.9%-5.0%1.8%1.0%8,744.48,024.68,180.87,999.88,350.48,367.78,197.08,294.37,662.77,242.87,311.07,447.77,610.47,759.87,868.37,990.38,112.48,247.38,385.78,527.58,671.18,808.98,960.89,132.69,318.99,522.2-1.6%-2.3%1.7%1.3%4,192.54,038.63,920.73,855.34,027.74,052.04,149.73,803.33,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.23,648.2-1.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%46,024.945,232.043,730.243,747.446,216.547,478.046,177.746,756.745,321.642,608.543,519.444,736.046,134.047,546.548,835.149,978.551,043.752,117.353,242.854,377.055,515.656,694.557,896.559,140.160,422.961,761.8-0.2%-2.0%2.5%1.8%* Source: FAA Air Traffic Activity.