CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14-1 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS............................................................................................................ 14-1 

14.3 METHOD ...................................................................................................................... 14-2 

14.4 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14-3 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 14.4.1 AEO2008 Reference Case Forecast................................................................... 14-4 

Table 14.4.2 Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 

Forecast.............................................................................................................. 14-5 

Table 14.4.3 Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 2 

Forecast.............................................................................................................. 14-6 

Table 14.4.4 Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 3 

Forecast.............................................................................................................. 14-7 

Table 14.4.5 Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 4 

Forecast.............................................................................................................. 14-8 

Table 14.4.6 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ....................... 14-9 

Table 14.4.7 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ..................... 14-10 

Table 14.4.8 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ..................... 14-11 

Table 14.4.9 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ..................... 14-12 

Table 14.4.10 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 High Economic 

Growth Case Forecast...................................................................................... 14-13 

Table 14.4.11 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 Low Economic 

Growth Case Forecast...................................................................................... 14-14 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS 

14.1 INTRODUCTION 

DOE analyzed the effects of residential conventional cooking products and microwave 

ovens on the electric and gas utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information 

Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).a NEMS is a public domain, 

multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses 

NEMS to produce a baseline energy forecast for the U.S., the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). 

The AEO for 2008 (AEO2008) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030.1 DOE used a 

variant of this model, referred to here as NEMS-BT,b to account for the impacts of equipment 

efficiency standards on the baseline energy forecast. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a 

comparison between model results for the AEO2008 Reference Case and for policy cases in 

which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2008. For 

example, the operating characteristics (e.g., energy conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of 

future electricity generating plants are as specified in the AEO2008 Reference Case, as are the 

prospects for natural gas supply. 

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by 

fuel type, that result for each trial standard level (TSL), as well as changes in residential and 

commercial sector electricity and natural gas consumption. 

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in 

the analysis of energy efficiency standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well 

known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, 

the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various 

energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of 

the effects of energy-efficiency standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to 

estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficiency 

standards than considering only average effects. 

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AEO2008 and treats conventional 

cooking product and microwave oven efficiency standards as variations in policy. The effect of 

a

 For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA0581(2003), March, 2003. 

b

 DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any 

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run 

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE=s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT 

was previously called NEMS-BRS. 

EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2008 Reference Case and each 

proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards reduces total natural gas 

demand by less than one percent in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the 

simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and interpolated results for 

the TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of interpolation. This method 

is discussed in more detail below and in Appendix 14A. 

DOE also considered the High and Low Economic Growth Cases of AEO2008. The 

AEO2008 Reference Case corresponds to medium growth. The High Economic Growth Case 

assumes higher projected growth rates for population, labor force, and labor productivity, 

resulting in lower predicted inflation and interest rates, and higher aggregate economic growth, 

relative to the reference case. The opposite is true for the Low Economic Growth Case. The 

High Growth Case reflects an average annual growth in gross domestic product of 3.4 percent 

per year compared with 3.0 percent per year in the Reference Case, and 2.2 percent per year in 

the Low Growth Case. Different economic growth scenarios affect the rate of growth of 

electricity demand. DOE ran the High and Low Economic Growth Cases only for the proposed 

standard. 

14.3 METHOD 

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (Chapter 

10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be 

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger 

than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results 

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMSBT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the 

results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed 

description of the interpolation method is given in Appendix 14A. 

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity and natural gas consumption in the 

NEMS-BT Residential and Commercial Demand Modules. Energy use reductions are applied to 

the residential cooking end use for cooking products and microwave ovens. The savings are then 

divided among U.S. Census divisions. All fuels are considered simultaneously, however the 

residential and commercial TSLs are run separately using NEMS-BT. 

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the residential 

conventional cooking product and microwave oven energy-efficiency standards analysis extend 

to the year 2042. It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of 

this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an approved method for extrapolation of many outputs 

beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in 

practice this is not advisable because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in 

the fuel mix implied by extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the 

extrapolation of marginal emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to 

14-2 

EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great 

deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 

2030 results. While these may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are 

guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit 

assumption is that the regulatory environment does not deviate from the current known situation 

during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain 

introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they 

appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results. 

14.4 RESULTS 

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity, 

and residential-sector consumption. Results are for all TSLs presented in five-year increments to 

year 2030, including High and Low Growth cases for just the proposed TSL. Beyond year 2030, 

an extrapolation to 2042 for each proposed TSL represents a simple replication of the year 2030 

results. 

The results from the AEO2008 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.4.1. 

A separate set of TSLs are modeled for each energy efficiency standard product. A total 

of four TSLs are modeled for residential conventional cooking products and four for residential 

microwave ovens. The reference case results for each TSL are presented in Tables 14.4.2 

through 14.4.9, respectively. The results from proposed residential conventional cooking 

products are presented in Tables 14.2.2 through 14.2.5 and the results from proposed residential 

microwave ovens are presented in Tables 14.2.6 through 14.2.9. Each table shows forecasts 

using interpolated results, as described in section 14.3 for total U.S. electricity generation and 

installed capacity. 

Residential cooking products result in decreases to electricity and natural gas 

consumption for all TSLs compared to the AEO2008 Reference Case with the exception of TSL 

1, which forecasts no changes in electricity consumption. The natural gas savings predicted by 

the National Impacts Analysis (NIA) Model range from 0.1 to 0.3 percent of total residential 

natural gas consumption by year 2030 with electricity savings amounting to less than 0.0 percent 

for all TSLs. 

Residential microwave ovens save electricity for the four TSLs compared to the 

AEO2008 Reference Case, with no savings from natural gas consumption. The electricity savings 

predicted by the National Impacts Analysis (NIA) Model range from 0.0 to 0.2 percent of total 

residential electricity consumption by year 2030. 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
Table 14.4.1 AEO2008 Reference Case Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: AEO2008 Reference 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1 

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,620 1,722 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61 

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.30 5.35 5.32 

Other (Quads)3 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67 

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 1 

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,275 1,386 1,522 1,661 1,802 1,941 

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.26 3.21 3.47 3.66 3.83 3.99 

Other (EJ) 0.98 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.09 3.04 3.29 3.47 3.63 3.78 

Other (Quads)3 0.93 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4 

Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836 

Gas (TWh) 757 907 904 833 766 737 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917 

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 

Total (TWh)5 4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214 

Installed Generating Capacity 6 

Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8 

Other Fossil (GW)7 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9 

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 

Total (GW)8 952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.1 

1

Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2008: Energy Consumption 

2

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2008: Electricity Sales by Sector 

3

Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal,

 and renewable energy 

4

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2008: Electric Generators and Cogenerators 

5

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators 

6

Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2008: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability 

7

Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators 

8

Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells 

The results from the AEO2008 High Economic Growth Reference Case and AEO2008 

Low Economic Growth Reference Case for the one proposed TSL is presented in Tables 14.4.10 

and 14.4.11, respectively. 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
Table 14.4.2 Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 Reference C

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,620 1,722 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.30 5.34 5.31 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 Other (Quads) 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 

Gas (TWh) 757 907 904 833 766 737 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (TWh) 4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (GW) 952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.0 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
Table 14.4.3 Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,620 1,721 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.30 5.34 5.31 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 

Other (Quads) 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Gas (TWh) 757 907 904 833 766 737 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Total (TWh) 4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (GW) 952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.8 1,172.0 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
Table 14.4.4 Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 Reference C

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,620 1,722 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.60 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.29 5.34 5.31 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 Other (Quads) 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 

Gas (TWh) 757 907 904 833 766 737 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (TWh) 4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214 Total (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.7 413.7 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (GW) 952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.8 1,172.0 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
Table 14.4.5 Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 Reference C

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,619 1,721 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.58 5.63 5.60 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.29 5.34 5.31 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 Other (Quads) 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,574 2,835 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 

Gas (TWh) 757 907 904 833 766 737 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.

Total (TWh) 4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,213 Total (TWh) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.3 378.7 413.7 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.8 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (GW) 952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.2 1,104.8 1,171.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

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Table 14.4.6 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 Reference Ca

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,450 1,472 1,539 1,619 1,721 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.30 5.35 5.32 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (Quads) 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,357 2,574 2,835 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.9 

Gas (TWh) 757 907 903 832 766 737 Gas (TWh) 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.2 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 

Total (TWh) 4,034 4,277 4,466 4,706 4,954 5,213 Total (TWh) 0.0 -0.3 -1.1 -1.3 -1.2 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.7 413.7 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.8 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (GW) 952.4 1,004.2 992.9 1,039.2 1,104.8 1,172.0 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 

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Table 14.4.7 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 Reference Ca

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,450 1,471 1,539 1,619 1,721 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -1.2 -1.3 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.30 5.35 5.32 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (Quads) 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,357 2,574 2,835 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 -1.2 

Gas (TWh) 757 907 903 832 766 737 Gas (TWh) 0.0 -0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.3 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 

Total (TWh) 4,034 4,277 4,466 4,705 4,953 5,212 Total (TWh) 0.0 -0.5 -1.5 -1.8 -1.8 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.3 378.7 413.7 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.5 444.5 466.9 493.8 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (GW) 952.4 1,004.2 992.9 1,039.2 1,104.7 1,171.9 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
Table 14.4.8 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 Reference Ca

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,450 1,471 1,538 1,618 1,720 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -1.8 -2.1 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.30 5.35 5.32 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (Quads) 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,181 2,357 2,573 2,834 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.3 -2.0 

Gas (TWh) 757 906 902 832 765 736 Gas (TWh) 0.0 -0.6 -1.6 -1.2 -0.5 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 

Total (TWh) 4,034 4,276 4,465 4,704 4,952 5,211 Total (TWh) 0.0 -0.8 -2.4 -2.8 -2.8 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.3 378.6 413.7 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.5 444.5 466.9 493.8 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.4 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (GW) 952.4 1,004.2 992.9 1,039.1 1,104.6 1,171.8 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
Table 14.4.9 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 Reference Ca

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,450 1,471 1,538 1,617 1,719 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -1.3 -2.4 -2.9 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.30 5.35 5.32 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (Quads) 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,181 2,356 2,572 2,833 Coal (TWh) 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -1.8 -2.7 

Gas (TWh) 757 906 902 831 765 736 Gas (TWh) 0.0 -0.9 -2.3 -1.6 -0.7 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 

Total (TWh) 4,034 4,276 4,464 4,703 4,951 5,210 Total (TWh) 0.0 -1.1 -3.3 -3.7 -3.9 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.3 378.6 413.6 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.0 436.5 444.5 466.8 493.7 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.3 143.3 149.4 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

Total (GW) 952.4 1,004.2 992.8 1,039.0 1,104.5 1,171.6 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
Table 14.4.10 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 High Economic Growth Case Fore

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 High Econom

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,455 1,495 1,587 1,690 1,824 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.23 5.51 5.74 5.84 5.87 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.84 1.81 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.96 5.22 5.44 5.53 5.56 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 

Other (Quads) 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.78 1.74 1.72 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,229 2,540 2,806 3,129 Coal (TWh) 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 Gas (TWh) 757 942 964 823 766 731 Gas (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 61 63 67 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 888 966 1,047 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 463 520 599 664 689 Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 

Total (TWh) 4,034 4,313 4,577 4,911 5,265 5,663 Total (TWh) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 335.6 374.7 410.5 456.0 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 465.5 443.6 452.5 479.9 510.2 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 113.6 122.9 131.8 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.4 126.3 136.5 148.3 155.5 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (GW) 952.4 1,004.8 1,007.5 1,077.2 1,161.6 1,253.5 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
Table 14.4.11 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 Low Economic Growth Case Forec

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2008 Low Economi

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,444 1,448 1,495 1,550 1,619 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.21 5.39 5.46 5.44 5.34 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.87 1.85 1.83 1.76 1.73 Other (EJ) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.94 5.11 5.18 5.15 5.06 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 Other (Quads) 1.91 1.77 1.75 1.73 1.67 1.64 Other (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,054 2,144 2,232 2,363 2,538 Coal (TWh) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 Gas (TWh) 757 876 831 794 758 730 Gas (TWh) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 56 59 64 65 Petroleum (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 854 860 837 Nuclear (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (TWh) 357 457 511 568 612 624 Renewables (TWh) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Total (TWh) 4,034 4,240 4,349 4,507 4,657 4,794 Total (TWh) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 325.1 334.3 351.8 376.2 Coal (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 464.7 427.8 435.5 452.0 467.9 Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 108.9 108.9 104.4 Nuclear (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Renewables (GW) 99.5 117.0 122.8 130.0 137.5 140.3 Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (GW) 952.4 1,002.6 977.8 1,008.6 1,050.1 1,088.7 Total (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2
1 

REFERENCES 

U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 

2008 (Revised Early Release) with Projections to 2030. 2008: Washington, DC. 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/> 

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EERE-2006-STD-0127 COMMENT 64.2