Appendix 4A - MA 2008 PROJECTIONS BY CATEGORIES2008 Projections for Source categories with ** include reductions from post-2002 control measures.ks/inv2002-sip-rfp/RFP-2008-projections/ Oct-23/2007ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL PROJECTEDPROJECTED ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL PROJECTED PROJECTED PROJECTEDVOCVOCVOCVOCVOCVOCVOCVOC NOx NOx NOx NOx MA NOxNOx NOx NOx NOx NOx2002 2002 2002 2002 2002-08 2008 2008 2008 2002 2002 2002 2002 BUDGET 06 2006-08 2002-08 2008 2008 2008SOURCE CATEGORYSCCTPYTPSDTPSDTPSDGR.FACTPSDTPSDTPSDTPYTPSDTPSDTPSDTPSDGR.FACGR.FACTPSDTPSDTPSDSTATESTATEE.MAW.MASTATESTATEE.MAW.MASTATESTATEE.MAW.MASTATESTATESTATESTATEE.MAW.MAPOINT SOURCES** 1. NOx Budget Sources533.0 1.50 1.35 0.15 0.912 1.37 1.23 0.14 32940.0 82.77 74.49 8.28 35.70 1.046 n/a 37.34 33.61 3.732. Other Point 5114.0 14.50 13.05 1.45 1.034 14.99 13.49 1.50 12650.0 46.83 42.15 4.68 n/a n/a 1.034 48.42 43.58 4.84TOTAL POINT SOURCES 5647.0 16.00 13.63 2.37 1.023 16.36 13.94 2.42 45590.0 129.60 116.64 12.96 85.76 77.19 8.58AREA SOURCESWaste Treatment1. POTW's 2630020000 511.4 1.40 0.97 0.43 1.064 1.49 1.03 0.462. HW TSDF 2640000000 84.1 0.23 0.08 0.15 1.064 0.24 0.09 0.163. MSW Landfills 2620030000 1497.2 4.10 2.99 1.12 1.015 4.16 3.04 1.14Total Waste Management2092.7 5.73 4.04 1.70 5.90 4.15 1.75Gasoline Distribution1. Tank Truck Unl. (Stage 1) 2501060051 2081.4 6.72 5.65 1.08 1.020 6.85 5.76 1.102. Vehicle Refuel. (Stage 11) In On-Road Mobile category3. Underground Tank Breath. 2501060201 1425.6 3.91 3.28 0.62 1.020 3.99 3.35 0.634. Transit Losses 2505030120 213.3 0.69 0.58 0.11 1.020 0.70 0.59 0.115. Aircraft Refuel. 2275900101 275.8 0.76 0.73 0.03 1.020 0.78 0.74 0.036. Petro Vessel Unload. 2505020000 459.0 1.25 1.25 0.00 1.020 1.28 1.28 0.007. Portable Fuel Contain Resident 2501011000 5534.3 15.16 13.03 2.13 1.015 15.39 13.23 2.168. Portable Fuel Contain Commerc 2501012000 1054.2 2.89 2.48 0.41 1.015 2.93 2.52 0.42Total Gasoline Distribution11043.6 31.38 27.00 4.38 31.92 27.46 4.46Stationary Source Solvent Evap.1. Dry Cleaning 2420000000 9.0 0.03 0.03 0.00 1.037 0.03 0.03 0.002. Surface Clean -Degrease 2415000000 8477.6 32.61 28.24 4.37 0.959 31.27 27.08 4.193. Comm/Consum Solvents 2465000000 22690.1 62.16 54.26 7.91 1.015 63.10 55.08 8.034. Graphic Arts: 2425000000 3683.1 14.17 12.28 1.89 1.013 14.35 12.44 1.915. Industrial Adhesives -Point 402007XXXX 347.4 0.95 0.81 0.14 1.364 1.30 1.10 0.196. Indus/comm Adhesives-Area 2440020000 3526.9 9.66 8.21 1.45 1.325 12.80 10.88 1.92Total Solvent Evaporation38734.1 119.58 103.83 15.76 122.85 106.61 16.25Non-Indus. Surface Coating:1. Auto. Refinish 2401005000 2380.5 9.16 7.84 1.31 1.020 9.34 8.00 1.342. AIM Architect. Coating 2401001000 11827.2 42.12 36.77 5.36 1.020 42.96 37.51 5.473. AIM Traffic Marking 2401008000 1285.6 4.58 4.00 0.58 1.020 4.67 4.08 0.593.AIM High Perf. Maintenance 2401100000 2056.9 7.33 6.39 0.93 0.949 6.96 6.06 0.884. AIM Oth. Speclty Purp Coat 2401200000 2056.9 7.33 6.39 0.93 0.957 7.01 6.12 0.89Total Auto Ref & AIM Coating19607.1 70.52 61.39 9.11 70.95 61.76 9.17Industrial Coating:1. Furniture & Fixtures 2401020000 2560.4 9.85 8.42 1.43 1.000 9.85 8.42 1.432. Metal Containers 2401040000 201.6 0.78 0.61 0.16 0.963 0.75 0.59 0.153. Motor Vehicles New 2401070000 121.1 0.47 0.41 0.05 1.060 0.50 0.43 0.054. Machinery & Equip. 2401055000 3687.4 14.18 12.22 1.96 0.966 13.70 11.80 1.895. Appliances 2401060000 863.9 3.32 2.85 0.47 0.895 2.97 2.55 0.426. Other Transportation Equip. 2401990000 439.1 1.69 1.42 0.26 1.060 1.79 1.51 0.287. Metal Sheet, Strip,Coil 2401045000 956.3 3.68 3.30 0.37 0.954 3.51 3.15 0.358. Factory Finished Wood 2401015000 2736.6 10.53 9.13 1.39 1.000 10.53 9.13 1.399. Electric Insulation 2401065000 820.7 3.16 2.73 0.43 0.900 2.84 2.46 0.3910. Other Prod. Coating 2401090000 1928.3 7.42 6.47 0.94 0.957 7.10 6.19 0.9011. Marine Coatings 2401080000 242.1 0.93 0.81 0.12 1.060 0.99 0.86 0.13Total Industrial Coating14557.5 56.01 48.37 7.58 54.53 47.09 7.38Miscelleneous Solvents:1. Cutback Asphalt 2461022000 328.5 3.64 3.18 0.46 1.020 3.71 3.24 0.472. Emulsified Asphalt 2461021000 434.4 4.79 4.18 0.61 1.020 4.89 4.26 0.623. Pesticide Use 2461800000 910.7 4.26 2.97 1.29 1.019 4.34 3.03 1.314. Bakeries 2302050000 648.3 1.78 1.61 0.16 1.060 1.89 1.71 0.175. Breweries/Wineries 2302070001 86.8 0.24 0.21 0.03 1.018 0.24 0.21 0.036. Petroleum Spills 2830000000 327.3 0.90 0.73 0.17 1.020 0.92 0.74 0.177. Asphalt Roofing 2461023000 536.7 2.41 1.95 0.46 1.015 2.45 1.98 0.47 10.4 0.05 0.04 0.01 1.015 0.05 0.04 0.018. Leaking USTs 2660000000 6.1 0.02 0.01 0.00 1.015 0.02 0.01 0.00Total Miscellaneous Solvents3278.8 18.04 14.84 3.18 18.46 15.19 3.25 10.40 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.05 0.04 0.01Small Statonary Fuel Combustion1. Residential Coal 2104002000 10.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.071 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.071 0.00 0.00 0.002. Residential D.Oil 2104004000 330.4 0.32 0.28 0.04 1.074 0.34 0.30 0.04 8340.9 8.16 7.12 1.04 1.074 8.76 7.65 1.123. Residential N.Gas 2104006000 300.5 0.29 0.25 0.04 1.118 0.32 0.28 0.04 5136.1 5.02 4.38 0.64 1.118 5.61 4.90 0.724. Residential Wood-burning 2104008000 66217.0 15.14 13.01 2.13 1.064 16.11 13.84 2.27 1332.0 0.17 0.15 0.02 1.064 0.18 0.16 0.025. Residential Kerosene 2104011000 2.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.739 0.00 0.00 0.00 51.6 0.05 0.04 0.01 1.739 0.09 0.07 0.026. Residential LPG 2104007000 18.5 0.02 0.02 0.00 1.019 0.02 0.02 0.00 863.6 0.85 0.74 0.11 1.019 0.87 0.75 0.11Total Residential Fuel66878.4 15.77 13.56 2.21 16.80 14.44 2.35 15727.2 14.25 12.43 1.82 15.51 13.53 1.98Appendix 4A - MA 2008 PROJECTIONS BY CATEGORIES2008 Projections for Source categories with ** include reductions from post-2002 control measures.ks/inv2002-sip-rfp/RFP-2008-projections/ Oct-23/2007ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL PROJECTEDPROJECTED ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL PROJECTED PROJECTED PROJECTEDVOCVOCVOCVOCVOCVOCVOCVOC NOx NOx NOx NOx MA NOxNOx NOx NOx NOx NOx2002 2002 2002 2002 2002-08 2008 2008 2008 2002 2002 2002 2002 BUDGET 06 2006-08 2002-08 2008 2008 2008SOURCE CATEGORYSCCTPYTPSDTPSDTPSDGR.FACTPSDTPSDTPSDTPYTPSDTPSDTPSDTPSDGR.FACGR.FACTPSDTPSDTPSDSTATESTATEE.MAW.MASTATESTATEE.MAW.MASTATESTATEE.MAW.MASTATESTATESTATESTATEE.MAW.MA1. Commercial/Instit Coal 2103001000 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.045 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.045 0.00 0.00 0.002. Commercial/Instit D.Oil 2103004000 26.6 0.03 0.02 0.01 1.225 0.04 0.02 0.01 1566.6 1.81 1.57 0.24 1.225 2.22 1.92 0.293. Commercial/Instit R.Oil 2103005000 0.7 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.676 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.5 0.04 0.03 0.01 1.676 0.07 0.05 0.024. Commercial/Instit N.Gas 2103006000 168.2 0.19 0.16 0.03 1.103 0.21 0.18 0.03 3059.0 3.53 3.06 0.47 1.103 3.89 3.38 0.525. Commercial/Instit Kerosene 2103011000 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.332 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.0 0.04 0.03 0.01 1.332 0.05 0.04 0.016. Commercial/Instit LPG 2103007000 3.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.082 0.00 0.00 0.00 152.3 0.18 0.16 0.02 1.082 0.19 0.17 0.027. Commercial/Instit Wood & Prod 2103081000 15.3 0.02 0.02 0.00 1.000 0.02 0.02 0.00 198.0 0.23 0.20 0.03 1.000 0.23 0.20 0.03Total Commercial/Instit Fuel214.6 0.24 0.20 0.04 0.27 0.22 0.05 5042.4 5.83 5.05 0.78 6.66 5.76 0.891. Small Industrial Coal 2102001000 0.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.951 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.8 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.951 0.02 0.02 0.002. Small Industrial D.Oil 2102004000 22.0 0.03 0.02 0.01 1.018 0.03 0.02 0.01 388.7 0.54 0.47 0.07 1.018 0.55 0.48 0.073. Small Industrial R.Oil 2102005000 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.956 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.956 0.00 0.00 0.004. Small Industrial N.Gas 2102006000 443.3 0.61 0.53 0.08 1.163 0.71 0.62 0.09 8060.6 11.16 9.66 1.50 1.163 12.98 11.23 1.745. Small Industrial Kerosene 2102011000 0.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.9 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.000 0.00 0.00 0.006. Small Industrial LPG 2102001000 6.1 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.014 0.01 0.01 0.00 283.5 0.39 0.33 0.06 1.014 0.40 0.33 0.067. Small Industrial Wood-Products 2102008000 362.1 0.50 0.43 0.07 1.149 0.57 0.49 0.08 4686.0 6.49 5.58 0.91 1.149 7.46 6.41 1.05Total Small Industrial Fuel833.7 1.15 0.99 0.16 1.32 1.14 0.18 13433.5 18.60 16.06 2.54 21.40 18.48 2.921. Open Burning -M.Solid Waste 2610030000 0.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.020 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.020 0.00 0.00 0.002. Open Burning -Brush Waste 2610000400 174.3 0.13 0.10 0.03 1.020 0.13 0.10 0.03 45.9 0.03 0.02 0.01 1.020 0.03 0.02 0.013. Open Burning -Leaf Burning 2610000100 17.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.020 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.020 0.00 0.00 0.004. Open Burning -Yard Waste 2610040400 142.3 0.11 0.09 0.02 1.020 0.11 0.09 0.02 37.5 0.03 0.02 0.01 1.020 0.03 0.02 0.01Total Open Burning334.7 0.24 0.19 0.05 0.25 0.19 0.05 88.4 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.021. Wildfires: Forest/Brush 2810001000 345.3 1.69 1.36 0.33 1.000 1.69 1.36 0.33 57.2 0.28 0.23 0.05 1.000 0.28 0.23 0.052. Structural Fires 2810030000 75.9 0.18 0.15 0.02 1.000 0.18 0.15 0.02 9.7 0.02 0.02 0.00 1.000 0.02 0.02 0.003. Vehicle Fires 2610000000 17.3 0.05 0.04 0.01 1.000 0.05 0.04 0.01 2.2 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.000 0.01 0.01 0.004. Food Preparation Backyard Grills 2810025000 374.8 3.26 2.78 0.48 1.015 3.31 2.82 0.49 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.015 0.00 0.00 0.005. Food Prep - Commercial Charbroi 2302002000 642.7 1.76 1.53 0.23 1.039 1.83 1.59 0.24 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.039 0.00 0.00 0.006. Food Prep - Comm. Deep Fat Fryi2302003000 722.1 1.98 1.72 0.26 1.039 2.06 1.79 0.27 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.039 0.00 0.00 0.00Total Other Fires and Cooking2178.1 8.92 7.58 1.33 9.11 7.75 1.36 69.1 0.31 0.26 0.05 0.31 0.26 0.05TOTAL COMBUSTION70439.5 26.32 22.52 3.79 27.75 23.75 3.99 34360.6 39.05 33.84 5.21 43.94 38.07 5.87TOTAL AREA SOURCE 159753.3 327.58 281.99 45.50 332.35 286.02 46.25 34371.0 39.10 33.88 5.22 43.99 38.11 5.88**ON-ROAD MOBILE157185.5 151.89 127.41 24.4780.11 68.32 11.79143367.6 453.05 381.35 71.70222.61 191.28 31.33OFF-ROAD MOBILEOFF-HIGHWAYAircraft -Logan 2275050000 206.5 0.57 0.57 0.00 1.176 0.67 0.67 0.00 1294.7 3.55 3.55 0.00 1.176 4.17 4.17 0.00Aircraft -Others 2275050000 792.5 2.17 1.73 0.44 1.139 2.47 1.97 0.50 1821.1 4.99 1.65 3.34 1.139 5.68 1.88 3.801. Total Aircraft 999.0 2.74 2.30 0.44 3.14 2.64 0.50 3115.8 8.54 5.19 3.34 9.86 6.05 3.802. Railroads 2285002000 309.8 0.85 0.59 0.26 0.955 0.81 0.56 0.25 7154.0 19.60 13.65 5.95 0.955 18.72 13.04 5.683. Commercial Marine Vessels 2280020010 432.6 1.19 1.19 0.00 1.016 1.21 1.21 0.00 2589.9 7.10 7.10 0.00 1.016 7.21 7.21 0.00Total Off-Highway1741.4 4.78 4.08 0.70 5.164.41 0.7512859.7 35.24 25.94 9.29 35.79 26.30 9.49** NONROAD Model Equipment1. Agricultural Equipment 0.25 0.19 1.76 1.572. Airport Eq 0.06 0.05 0.57 0.523. Commercial Eq 15.40 12.86 9.13 8.524. Construction & Mining 7.83 5.42 42.39 36.765. Industrial Equipment 8.71 5.49 35.32 24.946. Lawn & Garden -Commercial 53.66 32.61 9.97 8.687. Lawn & Garden -Residential 34.71 29.86 2.52 2.318. Logging Eq 0.26 0.16 0.42 0.289. Pleasure Craft 84.68 68.34 6.47 8.1910.Railroad Eq 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.0211.Recreational Eq 13.47 18.77 0.78 0.81SUBTOTAL NON-ROAD MODEL EQ 54835.8 219.04 192.11 26.97 173.76 150.91 22.85 30046.7 109.35 96.15 13.13 92.60 81.78 10.82TOTAL OFF-ROAD MOBILE 56577.2 223.82 196.19 27.67 178.92 155.32 23.60 42906.4 144.59 122.09 22.42 128.39 108.08 20.31ANTHROPOGENIC TOTAL 279163.0 719.29 619.22 100.01 607.75 523.60 84.06 266235.0 766.34 653.96 112.30 480.75 414.66 66.091 2008 On-Road Mobile projections from 2008 Mobile Source Emission Budgets prepared by MA Office of Transportation Planning 10/17/2007n/a - not applicableEIA = US Department of Energy Energy Information AdministrationGROWTH FACTORSOURCEDOE/EIAMANE-VU (EGAS/EIA)MA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentPopulation -US CensusMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTPopulation -US CensusPopulation -US CensusMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentPopulation -US CensusMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentMA DET & populationMassHighway VMTMA DET-metals& plastiMA DET-metals& plastiMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentMA DET painting,coatingMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentMA DET metal & plasticMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentMA DET assembl,fabricMA DET-riggers,mechanMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentPopulation -US CensusMassHighway VMTMA DET-employmentPopulation -US CensusMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAGROWTH FACTORSOURCEMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VUMANE-VUMANE-VUMANE-VUPopulation -US CensusMA DET-employmentMA DET-employmentMASSPORTMANE-VUMANE-VUMANE-VUNONROAD ModelNONROAD ModelNONROAD ModelNONROAD ModelNONROAD ModelNONROAD ModelNONROAD ModelNONROAD ModelNONROAD ModelNONROAD ModelNONROAD Model