f C t i S ll Di t ER d1 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govBUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAMPublic Service of Colorado Ponnequin Wind FarmFramework Document Public Meetingon Energy Conservation StandardsMargaret SullivanDepartment of EnergyE Effi i & R bl EforCertainSmall Diameter,ER,andBR Incandescent Reflector LampsEnergy Efficiency & RenewableEnergyIRL-2010-STD-0005@ee.doe.govMay 26, 2010Welcome and Introduction•Introductions•Role of the Facilitator•Ground Rules (norms)–Listen as an ally–Use short, succinct statements/keep to the point–Hold sidebar conversations outside the roomHoldsidebarconversationsoutsidetheroom–Focus on issues, not personalities–Oneperson speak at a time(raise hand to be recognized;stateyour name for the record)–Set cell phones to silent/vibrate•Housekeeping Items2 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov–Agenda9:00–9:05 am9:05am9:05– 9:20 am9:20– 9:40 am9:40–10:00 am10:00am10:00– 10:20 am10:20– 10:30 amWelcomeRulemaking Introduction and Brief Opening RemarksFrom Interested PartiesRegulatory History and Rulemaking OverviewMarket and Technology Assessment and ScreeningMarketandTechnologyAssessmentandScreeningAnalysisEngineeringProduct Price Determination3 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govAgenda (continued)10:30– 10:45 am10:45– 10:50 am10:50– 11:10 am11:10– 11:30 am11:30– 11:45 pm11:45– 12:00pmBreakEnergy Use CharacterizationLife-Cycle Cost and Payback Period AnalysisShipments Analysis, National Impact AnalysisOther NOPR AnalysesNext Steps and Closing4 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govt ttPurpose of Public Meeting•Present the procedural and analytical approaches toevaluate energyconservation standards Certain SmallDiameter, Elliptical Reflector, and Bulged ReflectorIncandescent Reflector Lamps (IRL).•S k t f i t t d ti th fSeekcommentfrominterestedparties ontheframeworkdocument.•Discuss next steps for the rulemaking.nextstepsfortherulemaking.DiscussDOE welcomes summary comments or statements onth f k d f i ll ditheframeworkdocumentfor certain smalldiameter,elliptical reflector, and bulged reflector incandescentreflector lamps at this time.5 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionIssue BoxThroughout this presentation, specific issues willbe raised for discussion on slides such as this, withidentifying numbers corresponding to those in theFramework Document. Nonetheless, DOE welcomescomment on any part of the presentation or frameworkdocument.6 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov4Public Meeting AgendaRegulatory History and Rulemaking Overview1RegulatoryHistoryandRulemakingOverviewMarket and Tech, Screening Analysis2Engineering, Product Price Determination34Energy Use and Life-Cycle Cost and PaybackEnergyUseandLifeCycleCostandPaybackPeriod AnalysesShipment and National Impact Analyses5Other NOPR Analyses67 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRegulatory History•Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT 1992)–Establish energy conservation standards for incandescentreflector lamps (IRL), excluding ER and BR bulb shapes, andlamps with diameters of 2.75 inches or less.•Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007)–Expanded the definition of IRL to include lamps with a diameterbetween 2.25 and 2.75 inches, as well as ER, BR, PAR, BPAR, orsimilar bulb shapes.–Exempted:1)Lamps rated 50W or less that are ER30, BR30, BR40, or ER402) Lamps rated 65W that are BR30, BR40, or ER403) R20 incandescent reflector lamps rated 45W or less8 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govRegulatory History (Continued)•July 2009 Lamps Rule–Amended existing standards for IRL.–March 2008 ANOPR preliminarily determined that DOE did nothave authority to set standards for the exempt IRL (74 FR 34092).–July2009 final rule concluded that based upon a reexamination ofits authority, DOE would conduct a separate rulemaking to assessenergy conservations standardsfor these currently exemptproducts.•Federal Register Notice of Public Meeting, May 3, 2010.–Gives notice of the public meeting and availability of theFramework Document being discussed todayFrameworkDocumentbeingdiscussedtoday.–Encourages interested parties to submit comments byJune 17, 20109 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov–Framework DocumentFrameworkDocumentNOPRFinalRuleToday•Today’public meeting covers the Framework Document forcoverstheFrameworkDocumentforspublicmeetingExempt Incandescent Reflector Lamps.•Framework Document–DOE has determined it has the authority to regulate exempt IRLDOEhasdeterminedithastheauthoritytoregulateexemptIRL.–Provides detailed description of analytical approach, tools, and models thatwill be used to evaluate standards for exempt IRL.•Timeline–DOE believes that much of the analysis developed for the July 2009 Lampsrule is relevant to this rulemaking.DOE plans to publish a final rule by December 2011DOEplanstopublishafinalrulebyDecember2011.10 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govTest Procedures•Energy Policy Act of 1992, Test Procedure Final Rule. 62 FR29221, May 29, 199729221,May29,1997–Established test procedures for incandescent reflector lamps.–Incorporated by reference several ANSI and IESNA industry standards.•DOE adopted amendments to the IRL test procedure, updatingseveral industry standards. 74 FR 31829 (July 6, 2009)Item 1DOE welcomes comment on its conclusion that the testprocedures for the IRL covered by this rulemaking do not need to beproceduresfortheIRLcoveredbythisrulemakingdonotneedtobeupdated. DOE believes that the IRLtest procedures currently providedin 10 CFR part 430, subpart B, appendix R are appropriate for the ER,BR, and small diameter IRLs that are the subject of this rulemaking.11 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govOff Mode and Standby ModeItem 2:DOE welcomes comment on its decision to not amendenergy conservation standards to address lamp operation in “offmode” or “standby mode.” DOE does not believe that anycommercially-available IRLs satisfy the definition for “off mode” or“standbymod ”e”operation.Therefore,DOEmaintainsth t it ithatitis notf i t i tfeasible to incorporate off modeor standby mode energy use into theenergy conservation standards for IRLs.12 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govs sSteps in the NOPRFrameworkDocumentNOPRFinalRuleMarket &TechnologyEngineeringProduct PriceTechnologyScreeningAnalysisg gAnalysisN ti lDeterminationLife-Cycle Costand PaybackPeriod AnalysisEnergy UseCharacterizationShipmentsAnalysisNationalImpactAnalysisPeriodAnalysisayManufacturerImpactUtilityImpactEmploymentImpactLife-CycleCostEnvironmentalRegulatoryImpact13 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govImpactAnalysisImpactAnalysisImpactAnalysisSubgroupAnalysisAssessmentImpactAnalysis4Public Meeting Agenda1Regulatory History and Rulemaking OverviewRegulatoryHistoryandRulemakingOverviewMarket and Tech, Screening Analysis2Engineering, Product Price Determination34Energy Use and Life-Cycle Cost and PaybackEnergyUseandLifeCycleCostandPaybackPeriod AnalysesShipment and National Impact Analyses5Other NOPR Analyses614 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPurpose•Market and Technology Assessment–Characterize the exempt IRL market and industry.–Establish product classes.–Identify technology options to improve efficacy.•Screening Analysis–Screen out technology options that DOE will not consider in theengineering analysis.Item 4DOE invites interested parties to submit data relevant to themarket assessment in the form of a written comment. This includeshistorical shipments of the exempted incandescent reflector lampmarket by lamp type, lamp wattage, and market sector.15 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct Classes•DOE establishes separate energy conservation standards foreach product classeachproductclass.•DOE divides covered products into classes by:DOEdividescoveredproductsintoclassesby:–The type of energy used;–Capacity of the product; or–Any other performance-related features that require differentstandard levels, such as features affecting consumer utility.(42 U.S.C. 6295q))(16 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govProduct ClassesSpectrumDiameterVoltageinchesvolts> 2.5≥125Standard< 125≤25≥1252.5< 125> 2.5≥125Modified< 125≤52.≥125< 125Item 3DOE welcomes comments on its decision to base productclass divisions on standard/modified spectrum, lamp diameter, andinput voltage.17 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govTechnology Options•DOE has identified several technology options:–Higher Temperature Operation–Microcavity Filaments–Novel Filament Materials–Thinner Filaments–Efficient Filament Coiling–Crystallite Filament Coatings–Efficient Filament Orientation–Efficient Filament Placement–Higher Efficiency Inert Fill Gas–Luminescent Gas–Tungsten-Halogen Lamps–Higher Pressure TungstenHalogen Lamps–Non-Tungsten-H laogenRegenerative Cycles–Integrally Ballasted Low-VoltageLamps–Infrared Glass Coatings–Infrared Phosphor GlassCoating–Higher Efficiency ReflectorCoatings–Trihedral Corner Reflectors18 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govTechnology OptionsItem 5DOE welcomes comments on all of the technology options itis consideringfor IRLs,includinganyomissions or revisionsnecessary to have a more comprehensive technology for theexempt IRLs covered in this rulemaking.In the context ofcommenting on technology options, DOE also requests informationon the feasibility performance improvement, and cost of thetechnology options, as well as anyrecent developments in theirtechnical maturity.19 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScreening Analysis•Technology options are screened using the followingcriteria:–Technological feasibility–Practicability to manufacture, install, and service–Adverse impacts on product utility or availability to customersAdverseimpactsonproductutilityoravailabilitytocustomers–Adverse impacts on health or safety•DOE screened out seven technologies in the July 2009Lamps Rule–MicrocavityFilaments–Non-TungstenTungsten-HalogenMicrocavityFilaments–Novel Filament MaterialsRegenerative Cycles–Crystallite Filament– Infrared Phosphor GlassCoatingCoatingCoatingsCoatings–Trihedral Corner Reflectors–Luminescent Gas20 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govt tScreening AnalysisItem 6DOE requests comments regarding the technologies thatwere screenedoutfortheJuly2009 fi2009finalrule andwhether anyadditional technology options should be screened out for this rule.Specifically, DOE is seeking any data or information that would allowDOE to determine whether it is still appropriate to screen out theseDOEtodeterminewhetheritisstillappropriatetoscreenoutthesetechnologies.21 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov4Public Meeting Agenda1Regulatory History and Rulemaking OverviewRegulatoryHistoryandRulemakingOverviewMarket and Tech, Screening Analysis2Engineering, Product Price Determination34Energy Use and Life-Cycle Cost and PaybackEnergyUseandLifeCycleCostandPaybackPeriod AnalysesShipment and National Impact Analyses5Other NOPR Analyses622 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEngineering Analysis - Purpose•The purpose of the engineering analysis and the product pricedetermination is to:–Determine the relationship between efficacy and end-user price.–Establish efficacy levels for analysis.Downstream RulemakingAnalysesEngineeringAnalysisProduct PriceDetermination•Life-Cycle Cost andPayback Period Analysis•National Impact Analysis23 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govtEngineering Analysis - MethodologyChoose product classes to be analyzed in theengineering and lifecycle cost analysesChooseRepresentativeengineeringandlife-cyclecostanalyses.Define characteristics of models in each representativeproduct class which will serve as reference points toRepresentativeProduct ClassesDefine Baselineproductclass,whichwillserveasreferencepointstoassess changes due to more stringent standard levels.Developefficacylevels that range from the baseline toModelsDevelopEfficacyp ygthe maximum technologically feasible.Identify higher-efficacy substitutes from a database ofEfficacyLevelsSelect HigherEfficacycommercially-available lamps and by developing modellamps.S l lt t d t l t di tl l dScaleTo ProductCl NySubstitutes24 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govScale resultsto productclasses notdirectly analyzed.ClassesNotAnalyzedtI iti lWLmHrRepresentative Product Classes andBaseline Models• DOE analyzed manufacturer catalogs and found thatt t d d t 120V li thChooseRepresentativetwo standardspectrum,120Vlamps comprisethemajority of the exempt IRL market:RepresentativeProduct ClassesDefine BaselineBaselineLampWattageInitialLightOutputEfficacyLampLifetimeWLmLm/WHrModelsDevelopEfficacyEfficacyLevelsSelect HigherEfficacyScaleTo ProductCl NSubstitutes25 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govClassesNotAnalyzedLm/WBR3065 620 9.5 2,000R2045 380 8.4 2,000tEfficacy Levels• In the July2009 Lamps rule, DOE developed efficacyChooseRepresentativeRepresentativey pp ylevels by observing natural divisions that correspond tomore-efficacious commercially-available technologiesfound in PAR-shaped lamps.RepresentativeProduct ClassesRepresentativeProduct ClassesDefine Baseline• DOE believes there is no clear utility difference betweenPAR-, ER-, BR-, R-shaped lamps.ModelsDevelopEfficacyEfficacyLevelsSelect HigherEfficacyScaleTo ProductCl NSubstitutesPARERBRR26 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govClassesNotAnalyzedPARERBRREfficacy Levels•DOE intends to use the same efficacy levels as established in July2009 Lamps rule.

Lamp Effica c y (lm/W)24.022.020.018.016.014.012.010.08.0Baseline: Incandescent (2,000 hr)EL1: Halogen (3,000 hr)EL2: Improved Halogen (Xenon) (3,000 hr)EL3: Long-Life HIR (6,000 hr)LifeHIR(6,000hr)EL3:LongImproved Halogen (Silver) (3,000 hr)EL4: HIR (3,000 hr)EL5: Improved HIR (4,000 hr)EL 6EL6: Improved HIR Plus (4,200 hr)EL 5EL 4EL 3EL 2EL165W BR30 Baseline20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110Lamp Power (W)27 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govtHigher-Efficacy SubstitutesChooseRepresentativeRepresentative• DOE chose IRL substitutes that save energy and achieveProduct ClassesProduct ClassesDefine Baselinesimilar lumen output by increasing efficacy and usingreduced-wattage lamps.ModelsDevelopEfficacy• DOE used commercially-available lamps when possible.•When commercially-available lamps were not available,EfficacyLevelsSelect HigherEfficacyWhencommerciallyavailablelampswerenotavailable,DOE developed model lamps to fill in technology gaps.•65W BR30 lamp substitutes were based on the 50WScaleTo ProductCl NySubstitutes•65WBR30lampsubstituteswerebasedonthe50WPAR30 analysis developed in the July 2009 Lamps rule.28 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govClassesNotAnalyzededtHigher-Efficacy Substitutes45W R20ChooseRepresentativeProduct ClassesRepresentativeProduct ClassesDefine BaselineModelsDevelopEfficacyEfficacyLevelsSelect HigherEfficacyScaleTo ProductCl NSubstitutesClassesNotAnalyzed•Due to the scope of coverage (≥40W), wattage savings arelimited to 5W for the 45W R20 baselinelimitedto5Wforthe45WR20baseline.EfficacyLevel (EL)DesignOptionLampDescriptorWattageEfficacyInitial LightOutputLampLifeWlm/WlmhrBaselineIncandescentR2045.08.43802,000EL1HalogenPAR2040.010.44162,500EL2ImprvedoHalogen(Xenon)PAR2040.010.94372,500EL3Long-Life HIRPAR2040.012.14836,000ImprovedHalogen(Silver)PAR2040.011.64632,500EL4HIRPAR2040.013.35303,000EL5Improved HIRPAR2040.014.35703,000EL6Improved HIRPlusPAR2040.015.86333,00029 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govtScaling• Based on test data and technical modeling,ChooseRepresentativeRepresentativeDOE reduced standard-spectrum levels by15% to determine modified-spectrum levels.Product ClassesProduct ClassesDefine Baseline• DOE derived an efficacy scaling factor forhigh voltage lamps which would result inModelsDevelopEfficacyequivalent performance of 120 V and 130 Vlamps when operating under the samevoltage conditions~15%EfficacyLevelsSelect HigherEfficacyvoltageconditions.15%ScaleTo ProductCl NySubstitutes30 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govClassesNotAnalyzedtEngineering AnalysisChooseRepresentativeRepresentativeItem 7DOE welcomes comments on its decision to use theProduct ClassesProduct ClassesDefine Baselinesame technology for the engineering analysis as that used inthe July 2009 final rule. DOE specifically requestscomments on the following: (1) the designatedrepresentative product classes; (2) the selected baselineModelsDevelopEfficacyrepresentativeproductclasses;(2)theselectedbaselinelamps; (3) the selected higher-efficiency lamp designs; (4)the efficiency levels considered for analysis; and (5) theadjustments considered for scalingtoproduct classes notEfficacyLevelsSelect HigherEfficacyjg panalyzed.ScaleTo ProductCl NySubstitutes31 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govClassesNotAnalyzedt t t tProduct Price Determination•Discount “blue-book” prices to develop high-range, mediumrange, and low-range end-user retail prices to reflectvariability in the market.•If a higher-efficacy replacement is not commercially available,apply the incremental price difference associated with thatapplytheincrementalpricedifferenceassociatedwiththattechnology.•Apply weighted-average sales tax data by region based onlocal data from Sales Tax ClearinghouselocaldatafromSalesTaxClearinghouse.It 9DOE li d i i hemwecomes comments onitsdecisionto usethesame methodology as the July 2009 final rule to developlamp prices and sales tax figures for this rulemaking.32 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov4Public Meeting Agenda1Regulatory History and Rulemaking OverviewRegulatoryHistoryandRulemakingOverviewMarket and Tech, Screening Analysis2Engineering, Product Price Determination3Energy Use and Life-Cycle Cost and PaybackEnergyUseandLifeCycleCostandPaybackPeriod Analyses4Shipment and National Impact Analyses5Other NOPR Analyses633 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEnergy Use Analysis•Energy Use = Operating Hours x Lamp Wattage•DOE developed annual operating hours with data from DOEsurveys (LMC, CBECS, RECS).•DOE assumed annual operating hours capture variationacross census divisions and large States, building types, andlighting applicationslightingapplications.SectorAverage Operating HoursCommercialCommercial3 450 hrs/yr3,450hrs/yrResidential889 hrs/yrItem 8DOE in ites comments on its methodolog to determine operatingDOEinvitescommentsonitsmethodologytodetermineoperatinghours for covered lamps in the commercial and residential sectors.34 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govp gLife-Cycle Cost andPayback Period Analysis•Purpose–Assess the net LCC and PBP impacts on a consumer due toenergy conservation standards.•Method–LCC equals consumer price plus the sum of annual operatingcosts discounted to a particular base year.–Results expressed as LCC difference(baseline minus standardlevel).–Simple Payback (years) is also calculated and reported.Consumer LifeCycle Cost(Baseline and Standard)LCC impacts(difference betweenbaseline and standard)OperatingCostFirst Cost(Consumer Price &Installation)35 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov()(Sum & discount topresent value)–t ttt t tLife-Cycle Cost andPayback Period Analysis•Total Installed Price (First Cost):Purchase price:product priceproductprice,salestax.Purchaseprice:sales tax–Installation cost:labor rate, minutes.•Total Operating Cost:–Electricity consumption:lamp wattage, operating hours.El i itel tecricity prce, proj tecedelectrcity pricetrend.–Electricity cost:ii•Present Value Factors:–Discount rate:residential and commercial sector.–Analysis period:lamp lifetime, annual operating hours.36 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govInstallation Costs•Total installed cost = consumerpurchaseprice(includingsalestax) + installation cost.–Commercial sector: assumes installation cost as the product ofaverage labor and time needed to install lamp.averagelaborandtimeneededtoinstalllamp.–Residential sector: assumes consumers install own replacementlamps, incurring no installation cost.•Derive average labor times, rates, and costs using “RS MeansElectrical Cost Data 2007” and data from the U.S. Bureau of LaborStatistics.Statistics.37 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govPurchasing Events•New Construction/Renovation–Several higher-efficacy replacements have a higher lumen output thanthe baseline.–Normalize total lumens by altering the spacing of fixtures to include lesslamps at higher lumen output.•Lamp ReplacementLampReplacement–Lumens are not normalized because consumers cannot alter existinglamp fixtures.ItemDOE seeks comment on whether consumers are likelyto normalize lumens for the new construction/renovationpurchasingevent.g38 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEnergy Prices and Price Trends•Derive average regional prices for 13 geographic areas consistingof nine Census Divisions with four large States,treatedseparately.–Uses the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Form EIA-861,which collects electric utility data annually..whichcollectselectricutilitydataannually•Use the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) for projections offuture average electricity prices (reference high and lowfutureaverageelectricityprices(reference,high,andlowscenarios).–Apply the AEO trends to the energy prices derived from Form EIA-861.39 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govDiscount Rates•DOE uses the discount rate to determine the present valueoperating expenses over the analysis period.•Derive discount rates from estimates of the interest or “financecost” to purchase products.•Finance cost of raising funds to purchase products can be:1) Financial cost of any debtincurred to purchase products.2) Opportunity cost of any equity used to purchase products.Item 10DOE welcomes comments on its decision to use asimilar approach as the July 2009 final rule to conduct the LCCsimilarapproachastheJuly2009finalruletoconducttheLCCand PBP analysis.40 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov4Public Meeting Agenda1Regulatory History and Rulemaking OverviewRegulatoryHistoryandRulemakingOverviewMarket and Tech, Screening Analysis2Engineering, Product Price Determination34Energy Use and Life-Cycle Cost and PaybackEnergyUseandLifeCycleCostandPaybackPeriod AnalysesShipment and National Impact Analyses5Other NOPR Analyses641 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govtPurpose•Shipments Analysis–To estimate lamp shipments and the product mix of the stockToestimatelampshipmentsandtheproductmixofthestockover the analysis period in the base case and standards cases.•N ti l I A lNationalImpactAnalysis–To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from energyconservation standards at different levels.–To estimate the national economicimpact on the nation, or theNet Present Value (NPV), from energy conservation standards atdifferent levels.42 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govInstalled Stock and ShipmentForecasts (2014-2043)•Installed Stock–Calculate the installed stock of exempt IRL based on historicalCalculatetheinstalledstockofexemptIRLbasedonhistoricalshipments and average service lifetime of each lamp type.–Apply growth in floor space and assumptions regardingemerging technologies to forecast the installed stockemergingtechnologiestoforecasttheinstalledstock.–DOE will use the latest versions of RECS and CBECS todetermine anticipated growth in the number of IRL sockets in theresidential and commercial sectorsresidentialandcommercialsectors.•Shipments–Calculate shipments for new construction and lampreplacements.43 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govHistorical Shipments•DOE uses several assumptions in its shipments analysis:–NEMA shipments represent 70% of all nonhalogen IRLNEMAshipmentsrepresent70%ofallnon-halogenIRLshipments.–EISA 2007 exempted approximately 60% of non-halogen IRLshipments in 2005shipmentsin2005.–Sector breakdown: 33% commercial, 67% residential.•DOE requests information on the market shares of the 65Wand 45W lamps.Item 11DOE requests comments on these assumptions.44 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govEmerging Technologies•To account for the market penetration of other lightingtechnologies into the IRL market,DOE models two base-caseshipment scenarios:–Existing Technologies – forecasts the penetration of technologies thatare currentlyavailable and have reached maturation in terms ofpriceand efficacy. (i.e., R-CFL)–Emerging Technologies - forecasts the penetration of maturetechnologies and those that are still undergoing significant changes inprice andecacy.(i.e.,R-CFL,LED,CMH)ffi•Methodology to establish market penetration forecasts–Estimate price and performance forecasts of LEDs and CMH.–Calculate payback period of LEDs, CMH, and R-CFL compared to IRL.–Use PBP and market penetration relationships to develop forecasts.45 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govDraft Base-Case ShipmentsIRLHistoricalandBaseCaseForecastedShipments0120.140.16

n s)0.12

ents (billio n ShipmHistoricalShipmentsExistingTechnologiesBaseCaseForecastExistingTechnologiesForecastEmergingTechnologiesBaseCaseForecast0.180160.100.080.060.040.020.00200020052010201520202025203020352040Year46 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govOther Shipment Considerations•Impact of the July 2009 Lamps Rule–Standards adopted in the July2009 Lamps rule will take effect 2012.–Shipments of exempt IRL may increase at that time as some consumerschoose to purchase the cheapest lamp available.•Migration to lower wattage lampsMigrationtolowerwattagelamps–Replacement lamps are available outside the covered wattage range(below 40W). Consumers may shift to these lamps as a result ofstandards.ItemDOE requests comment on the magnitude of expected migrationto exempt lamps due to the July 2009 Lamps Rule if these lampsremain unregulated.ItemDOE requests comment on thelikelihood of consumersmigrating to <40W lamps (e.g., 39W halogen or incandescent) inresponse to exempt IRL standardsresponsetoexemptIRLstandards.47 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 11DOE requests comment on the methodology it is consideringto forecast shipments and specifically on: (1) historical shipment datatoforecastshipmentsandspecificallyon:(1)historicalshipmentdataand the assumptions presented to develop shipment forecasts; (2)the percent market penetration of existing and emergingtechnologies;(3)modelinga shift to exempted IRL in the base casedue to the July 2009 final rule; and (4) considering only a roll-upscenario in the standards case.48 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govNational Energy Savings and NetPresent Value Inputs•National Energy Savings–Installed Stock–Unit Annual Energy Consumption–Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Factors•Conversion factors forecast usinglatest Annual EneryOutlookg–HVAC Interaction•Commercial sector: 6.25%•No HVAC modeled in the residential sectorNoHVACmodeledintheresidentialsector–Rebound Rate•Commercial sectors: 1%, Residential sector: 8.5%•Net Present ValueNetPresentValue–Shipments–Per Unit Installed Cost–Electricity Prices–Discount Rate – 7% and 3% real49 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 12DOE welcomes comments on its decision to use the sameinputs and methodology as the July 2009 final rule to calculate NESand NPV.50 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov4Public Meeting Agenda1Regulatory History and Rulemaking OverviewRegulatoryHistoryandRulemakingOverviewMarket and Tech, Screening Analysis2Engineering, Product Price Determination34Energy Use and Life-Cycle Cost and PaybackEnergyUseandLifeCycleCostandPaybackPeriod AnalysesShipment and National Impact Analyses5Other NOPR Analyses651 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govManufacturer Impact Analysis•Purpose–To identify the impacts of energy conservation standards onToidentifytheimpactsofenergyconservationstandardsonmanufacturers.•Phase 1–DOE creates an industry profile to characterize the industry andDOEcreatesanindustryprofiletocharacterizetheindustryandidentify important issues that require consideration.•Phase 2–DOE prepares an industry cash-flow model and an interviewquestionnaire to guide interviews.•Phase 3–DOE interviews manufacturers, and assesses the impacts ofstandards both quantitatively (using the Government RegulatoryImpact Model) and qualitatively. (impacts on competition,manufacturing capacity, employment, and regulatory burden)52 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govOther NOPR Analyses•Life-Cycle Cost Subgroup Analysis–Effects on various national consumer subgroups•Utility Impact Analysis–Impacts on the generation capacity of utilitiesImpactsonthegenerationcapacityofutilities•Employment Impact Analysis–Indirect impacts on overall national employment•Environmental Assessment–Effects on airborne pollutant emissions•Regulatory Impact AnalysisRegulatoryImpactAnalysis–Impacts of non-regulatory alternatives53 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 13DOE currently plans on assessing the impacts on low-incomehouseholds and senior citizens, but seeks input regarding which otherconsumer subgroupsitshouldconserinthis rulemaking.id thiItem 14DOE welcomes comments on its methodology for assessingthe impacts on manufacturers ofproducts covered under thisrulemaking.Item 15DOE welcomes comments on its approach to assessing utilityimpacts of potential standards on the products covered under thisimpactsofpotentialstandardsontheproductscoveredunderthisrulemaking. To estimate the effects of energy conservation standardsfor exempt IRLs on the utility industry, DOE plans to use a variant ofEIA’NEMS that refers to DOE’Building Technologies ProgramsNEMSthatreferstoDOE sBuildingTechnologiesProgram(NEMS-BT).Item 19DOE welcomes comments on the methodology it isid i f th l t i t l iconsideringforthe regulatoryimpactanalysis54 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govIssues for DiscussionItem 16DOE welcomes comments on its approach to assessingemployment impacts of standardson the products covered under thisrulemaking. The indirect employment impacts are investigated in theemployment impact analysis using the Pacific Northwest NationalLaboratory’s “Impact of Sector Energy Technologies” (ImSET) modelwhereas the direct employment impacts are calculated during thewhereasthedirectemploymentimpactsarecalculatedduringthemanufacturer impact analysis.Item 17DOE welcomes comments on its plan to use NEMS-BT to conductthe environmental assessment on the equipment covered by thisrulemaking. DOE is particularly interested in whether there are any otherapproaches to the environmental assessment that it should consider andthe advantages and disadvantagesfor each approach.Item 18DOE welcomes comments on its approach for the monetization ofemissions55 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.govHow to Submit Written Comments•In all correspondence, please refer to the Exempt IncandescentReflector Lamps rulemaking by:–Docket Number EERE–2010–BT–STD–0005, and–Regulatory Identification Number (RIN) 1904-AC15•Email:IRL-2010-STD-0005@ee.doe.govPostal:Courier:Ms. Brenda EdwardsMs. Brenda EdwardsU.S.Department of EnergyU.S. Department of EnergyBuilding Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2JBuilding Technologies Program, 6th Floor1000 Independence Avenue, SW950 L’Enfant Plaza, SWWashington, DC 20585-0121Washington, DC 20024Tel: 202 586-2945•Comment period closes:Commentperiodcloses:June 17June17,201056 | Building Technologies Programeere.energy.gov