Appendix 4A - MA 2008 PROJECTIONS BY CATEGORIES

2008 Projections for Source categories with ** include reductions from post-2002 control measures.

ks/inv2002-sip-rfp/RFP-2008-projections/ Oct-23/2007

ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL PROJECTEDPROJECTED ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL PR

VOC VOC VOC VOC VOC VOC VOC VOC NOx NOx NOx NOx MA NOx NOx NOx 

2002 2002 2002 2002 2002-08 2008 2008 2008 2002 2002 2002 2002 BUDGET 06 2006-08 2002-08 

SOURCE CATEGORY SCC TPY TPSD TPSD TPSD GR.FAC TPSD TPSD TPSD TPY TPSD TPSD TPSD TPSD GR.FAC GR.FAC 

STATE STATE E.MA W.MA STATE STATE E.MA W.MA STATE STATE E.MA W.MA STATE STATE STATE 

POINT SOURCES** 1. NOx Budget Sources 533.0 1.50 1.35 0.15 0.912 1.37 1.23 0.14 32940.0 82.77 74.49 8.28 35.70 1.046 n/a 

2. Other Point 5114.0 14.50 13.05 1.45 1.034 14.99 13.49 1.50 12650.0 46.83 42.15 4.68 n/a n/a 1.034 

TOTAL POINT SOURCES 5647.0 16.00 13.63 2.37 1.023 16.36 13.94 2.42 45590.0 129.60 116.64 12.96 

AREA SOURCES Waste Treatment 1. POTW's 2630020000 511.4 1.40 0.97 0.43 1.064 1.49 1.03 0.46

2. HW TSDF 2640000000 84.1 0.23 0.08 0.15 1.064 0.24 0.09 0.163. MSW Landfills 2620030000 1497.2 4.10 2.99 1.12 1.015 4.16 3.04 1.14Total Waste Management 2092.7 5.73 4.04 1.70 5.90 4.15 1.75

 Gasoline Distribution

1. Tank Truck Unl. (Stage 1) 2501060051 2081.4 6.72 5.65 1.08 1.020 6.85 5.76 1.102. Vehicle Refuel. (Stage 11) In On-Road Mobile category3. Underground Tank Breath. 2501060201 1425.6 3.91 3.28 0.62 1.020 3.99 3.35 0.634. Transit Losses 2505030120 213.3 0.69 0.58 0.11 1.020 0.70 0.59 0.115. Aircraft Refuel. 2275900101 275.8 0.76 0.73 0.03 1.020 0.78 0.74 0.036. Petro Vessel Unload. 2505020000 459.0 1.25 1.25 0.00 1.020 1.28 1.28 0.007. Portable Fuel Contain Resident 2501011000 5534.3 15.16 13.03 2.13 1.015 15.39 13.23 2.168. Portable Fuel Contain Commerc 2501012000 1054.2 2.89 2.48 0.41 1.015 2.93 2.52 0.42Total Gasoline Distribution 11043.6 31.38 27.00 4.38 31.92 27.46 4.46

 Stationary Source Solvent Evap.

1. Dry Cleaning 2420000000 9.0 0.03 0.03 0.00 1.037 0.03 0.03 0.002. Surface Clean -Degrease 2415000000 8477.6 32.61 28.24 4.37 0.959 31.27 27.08 4.193. Comm/Consum Solvents 2465000000 22690.1 62.16 54.26 7.91 1.015 63.10 55.08 8.034. Graphic Arts: 2425000000 3683.1 14.17 12.28 1.89 1.013 14.35 12.44 1.915. Industrial Adhesives -Point 402007XXXX 347.4 0.95 0.81 0.14 1.364 1.30 1.10 0.196. Indus/comm Adhesives-Area 2440020000 3526.9 9.66 8.21 1.45 1.325 12.80 10.88 1.92Total Solvent Evaporation 38734.1 119.58 103.83 15.76 122.85 106.61 16.25

 Non-Indus. Surface Coating:

1. Auto. Refinish 2401005000 2380.5 9.16 7.84 1.31 1.020 9.34 8.00 1.342. AIM Architect. Coating 2401001000 11827.2 42.12 36.77 5.36 1.020 42.96 37.51 5.473. AIM Traffic Marking 2401008000 1285.6 4.58 4.00 0.58 1.020 4.67 4.08 0.593.AIM High Perf. Maintenance 2401100000 2056.9 7.33 6.39 0.93 0.949 6.96 6.06 0.884. AIM Oth. Speclty Purp Coat 2401200000 2056.9 7.33 6.39 0.93 0.957 7.01 6.12 0.89Total Auto Ref & AIM Coating 19607.1 70.52 61.39 9.11 70.95 61.76 9.17

 Industrial Coating:

 1. Furniture & Fixtures 2401020000 2560.4 9.85 8.42 1.43 1.000 9.85 8.42 1.43

2. Metal Containers 2401040000 201.6 0.78 0.61 0.16 0.963 0.75 0.59 0.153. Motor Vehicles New 2401070000 121.1 0.47 0.41 0.05 1.060 0.50 0.43 0.054. Machinery & Equip. 2401055000 3687.4 14.18 12.22 1.96 0.966 13.70 11.80 1.895. Appliances 2401060000 863.9 3.32 2.85 0.47 0.895 2.97 2.55 0.426. Other Transportation Equip. 2401990000 439.1 1.69 1.42 0.26 1.060 1.79 1.51 0.287. Metal Sheet, Strip,Coil 2401045000 956.3 3.68 3.30 0.37 0.954 3.51 3.15 0.358. Factory Finished Wood 2401015000 2736.6 10.53 9.13 1.39 1.000 10.53 9.13 1.399. Electric Insulation 2401065000 820.7 3.16 2.73 0.43 0.900 2.84 2.46 0.3910. Other Prod. Coating 2401090000 1928.3 7.42 6.47 0.94 0.957 7.10 6.19 0.9011. Marine Coatings 2401080000 242.1 0.93 0.81 0.12 1.060 0.99 0.86 0.13Total Industrial Coating 14557.5 56.01 48.37 7.58 54.53 47.09 7.38

 Miscelleneous Solvents:

1. Cutback Asphalt 2461022000 328.5 3.64 3.18 0.46 1.020 3.71 3.24 0.472. Emulsified Asphalt 2461021000 434.4 4.79 4.18 0.61 1.020 4.89 4.26 0.623. Pesticide Use 2461800000 910.7 4.26 2.97 1.29 1.019 4.34 3.03 1.314. Bakeries 2302050000 648.3 1.78 1.61 0.16 1.060 1.89 1.71 0.175. Breweries/Wineries 2302070001 86.8 0.24 0.21 0.03 1.018 0.24 0.21 0.036. Petroleum Spills 2830000000 327.3 0.90 0.73 0.17 1.020 0.92 0.74 0.177. Asphalt Roofing 2461023000 536.7 2.41 1.95 0.46 1.015 2.45 1.98 0.47 10.4 0.05 0.04 0.01 1.015 8. Leaking USTs 2660000000 6.1 0.02 0.01 0.00 1.015 0.02 0.01 0.00Total Miscellaneous Solvents 3278.8 18.04 14.84 3.18 18.46 15.19 3.25 10.40 0.05 0.04 0.01 

 Small Statonary Fuel Combustion

1. Residential Coal 2104002000 10.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.071 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.071 2. Residential D.Oil 2104004000 330.4 0.32 0.28 0.04 1.074 0.34 0.30 0.04 8340.9 8.16 7.12 1.04 1.074 3. Residential N.Gas 2104006000 300.5 0.29 0.25 0.04 1.118 0.32 0.28 0.04 5136.1 5.02 4.38 0.64 1.118 4. Residential Wood-burning 2104008000 66217.0 15.14 13.01 2.13 1.064 16.11 13.84 2.27 1332.0 0.17 0.15 0.02 1.064 5. Residential Kerosene 2104011000 2.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.739 0.00 0.00 0.00 51.6 0.05 0.04 0.01 1.739 6. Residential LPG 2104007000 18.5 0.02 0.02 0.00 1.019 0.02 0.02 0.00 863.6 0.85 0.74 0.11 1.019 Total Residential Fuel 66878.4 15.77 13.56 2.21 16.80 14.44 2.35 15727.2 14.25 12.43 1.82 
 Appendix 4A - MA 2008 PROJECTIONS BY CATEGORIES

2008 Projections for Source categories with ** include reductions from post-2002 control measures.

ks/inv2002-sip-rfp/RFP-2008-projections/ Oct-23/2007

ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL PROJECTEDPROJECTED ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL PR

VOC VOC VOC VOC VOC VOC VOC VOC NOx NOx NOx NOx MA NOx NOx NOx 

2002 2002 2002 2002 2002-08 2008 2008 2008 2002 2002 2002 2002 BUDGET 06 2006-08 2002-08 

SOURCE CATEGORY SCC TPY TPSD TPSD TPSD GR.FAC TPSD TPSD TPSD TPY TPSD TPSD TPSD TPSD GR.FAC GR.FAC 

STATE STATE E.MA W.MA STATE STATE E.MA W.MA STATE STATE E.MA W.MA STATE STATE STATE 

1. Commercial/Instit Coal 2103001000 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.045 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.045 2. Commercial/Instit D.Oil 2103004000 26.6 0.03 0.02 0.01 1.225 0.04 0.02 0.01 1566.6 1.81 1.57 0.24 1.225 3. Commercial/Instit R.Oil 2103005000 0.7 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.676 0.00 0.00 0.00 34.5 0.04 0.03 0.01 1.676 4. Commercial/Instit N.Gas 2103006000 168.2 0.19 0.16 0.03 1.103 0.21 0.18 0.03 3059.0 3.53 3.06 0.47 1.103 5. Commercial/Instit Kerosene 2103011000 0.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.332 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.0 0.04 0.03 0.01 1.332 6. Commercial/Instit LPG 2103007000 3.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.082 0.00 0.00 0.00 152.3 0.18 0.16 0.02 1.082 7. Commercial/Instit Wood & Prod 2103081000 15.3 0.02 0.02 0.00 1.000 0.02 0.02 0.00 198.0 0.23 0.20 0.03 1.000 Total Commercial/Instit Fuel 214.6 0.24 0.20 0.04 0.27 0.22 0.05 5042.4 5.83 5.05 0.78 

1. Small Industrial Coal 2102001000 0.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.951 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.8 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.951 2. Small Industrial D.Oil 2102004000 22.0 0.03 0.02 0.01 1.018 0.03 0.02 0.01 388.7 0.54 0.47 0.07 1.018 3. Small Industrial R.Oil 2102005000 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.956 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.956 4. Small Industrial N.Gas 2102006000 443.3 0.61 0.53 0.08 1.163 0.71 0.62 0.09 8060.6 11.16 9.66 1.50 1.163 5. Small Industrial Kerosene 2102011000 0.1 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.9 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.000 6. Small Industrial LPG 2102001000 6.1 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.014 0.01 0.01 0.00 283.5 0.39 0.33 0.06 1.014 7. Small Industrial Wood-Products 2102008000 362.1 0.50 0.43 0.07 1.149 0.57 0.49 0.08 4686.0 6.49 5.58 0.91 1.149 Total Small Industrial Fuel 833.7 1.15 0.99 0.16 1.32 1.14 0.18 13433.5 18.60 16.06 2.54 1. Open Burning -M.Solid Waste 2610030000 0.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.020 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.020 2. Open Burning -Brush Waste 2610000400 174.3 0.13 0.10 0.03 1.020 0.13 0.10 0.03 45.9 0.03 0.02 0.01 1.020 3. Open Burning -Leaf Burning 2610000100 17.3 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.020 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.8 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.020 4. Open Burning -Yard Waste 2610040400 142.3 0.11 0.09 0.02 1.020 0.11 0.09 0.02 37.5 0.03 0.02 0.01 1.020 Total Open Burning 334.7 0.24 0.19 0.05 0.25 0.19 0.05 88.4 0.06 0.04 0.02 1. Wildfires: Forest/Brush 2810001000 345.3 1.69 1.36 0.33 1.000 1.69 1.36 0.33 57.2 0.28 0.23 0.05 1.000 2. Structural Fires 2810030000 75.9 0.18 0.15 0.02 1.000 0.18 0.15 0.02 9.7 0.02 0.02 0.00 1.000 3. Vehicle Fires 2610000000 17.3 0.05 0.04 0.01 1.000 0.05 0.04 0.01 2.2 0.01 0.01 0.00 1.000 4. Food Preparation Backyard Grills 2810025000 374.8 3.26 2.78 0.48 1.015 3.31 2.82 0.49 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.015 5. Food Prep - Commercial Charbroi 2302002000 642.7 1.76 1.53 0.23 1.039 1.83 1.59 0.24 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.039 6. Food Prep - Comm. Deep Fat Fryi 2302003000 722.1 1.98 1.72 0.26 1.039 2.06 1.79 0.27 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.039 

Total Other Fires and Cooking 2178.1 8.92 7.58 1.33 9.11 7.75 1.36 69.1 0.31 0.26 0.05 

TOTAL COMBUSTION 70439.5 26.32 22.52 3.79 27.75 23.75 3.99 34360.6 39.05 33.84 5.21 

TOTAL AREA SOURCE 159753.3 327.58 281.99 45.50 332.35 286.02 46.25 34371.0 39.10 33.88 5.22 **ON-ROAD MOBILE1 57185.5 151.89 127.41 24.47 80.11 68.32 11.79 143367.6 453.05 381.35 71.70 

OFF-ROAD MOBILE OFF-HIGHWAY

 Aircraft -Logan 2275050000 206.5 0.57 0.57 0.00 1.176 0.67 0.67 0.00 1294.7 3.55 3.55 0.00 1.176  Aircraft -Others 2275050000 792.5 2.17 1.73 0.44 1.139 2.47 1.97 0.50 1821.1 4.99 1.65 3.34 1.139 1. Total Aircraft 999.0 2.74 2.30 0.44 3.14 2.64 0.50 3115.8 8.54 5.19 3.34 2. Railroads 2285002000 309.8 0.85 0.59 0.26 0.955 0.81 0.56 0.25 7154.0 19.60 13.65 5.95 0.955 3. Commercial Marine Vessels 2280020010 432.6 1.19 1.19 0.00 1.016 1.21 1.21 0.00 2589.9 7.10 7.10 0.00 1.016 Total Off-Highway 1741.4 4.78 4.08 0.70 5.16 4.41 0.75 12859.7 35.24 25.94 9.29 

 ** NONROAD Model Equipment

1. Agricultural Equipment 0.25 0.19 1.76 2. Airport Eq 0.06 0.05 0.57 3. Commercial Eq 15.40 12.86 9.13 4. Construction & Mining 7.83 5.42 42.39 5. Industrial Equipment 8.71 5.49 35.32 6. Lawn & Garden -Commercial 53.66 32.61 9.97 7. Lawn & Garden -Residential 34.71 29.86 2.52 8. Logging Eq 0.26 0.16 0.42 9. Pleasure Craft 84.68 68.34 6.47 10.Railroad Eq 0.01 0.01 0.02 11.Recreational Eq 13.47 18.77 0.78 

 SUBTOTAL NON-ROAD MODEL EQ 54835.8 219.04 192.11 26.97 173.76 150.91 22.85 30046.7 109.35 96.15 13.13 

TOTAL OFF-ROAD MOBILE 56577.2 223.82 196.19 27.67 178.92 155.32 23.60 42906.4 144.59 122.09 22.42 

 ANTHROPOGENIC TOTAL 279163.0 719.29 619.22 100.01 607.75 523.60 84.06 266235.0 766.34 653.96 112.30 

1 2008 On-Road Mobile projections from 2008 Mobile Source Emission Budgets prepared by MA Office of Transportation Planning 10/17/2007

n/a - not applicableEIA = US Department of Energy Energy Information Administration
GROWTH FACTOR

SOURCEDOE/EIAMANE-VU (EGAS/EIA) MA DET-employment MA DET-employment Population -US CensusMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTMassHighway VMTPopulation -US CensusPopulation -US CensusMA DET-employment MA DET-employment Population -US CensusMA DET-employment MA DET-employment MA DET & population MassHighway VMTMA DET-metals& plasti MA DET-metals& plasti MA DET-employment MA DET-employment MA DET-employment MA DET painting,coatingMA DET-employment MA DET-employment MA DET metal & plastic MA DET-employment MA DET-employment MA DET assembl,fabric MA DET-riggers,mechan MA DET-employment MA DET-employment MA DET-employment MA DET-employment Population -US CensusMassHighway VMTMA DET-employment Population -US CensusMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIA
GROWTH FACTOR

SOURCEMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU & EIAMANE-VU MANE-VU MANE-VU MANE-VU Population -US CensusMA DET-employment MA DET-employment MASSPORTMANE-VUMANE-VUMANE-VU  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model  NONROAD Model