# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 14-1

14.2 A SSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................ 14-1

14.3 M ETHOD ...................................................................................................................... 14-2

14.4 R ESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 14-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 14.4.1 AEO2008 Reference Case Forecast................................................................... 14-4

Table 14.4.2 Residential Conventional C ooking Products Trial Standard Level 1

Forecast .............................................................................................................. 14-5

Table 14.4.3 Residential Conventional C ooking Products Trial Standard Level 2

Forecast .............................................................................................................. 14-6

Table 14.4.4 Residential Conventional C ooking Products Trial Standard Level 3

Forecast .............................................................................................................. 14-7

Table 14.4.5 Residential Conventional C ooking Products Trial Standard Level 4

Forecast .............................................................................................................. 14-8

Table 14.4.6 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ....................... 14-9

Table 14.4.7 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ..................... 14-10

Table 14.4.8 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ..................... 14-11

Table 14.4.9 Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ..................... 14-12

Table 14.4.10 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 High Economic

Growth Case Forecast ...................................................................................... 14-13

Table 14.4.11 Residential Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 Low Economic

Growth Case Forecast ...................................................................................... 14-14

14-i

# CHAPTER 14. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of residential conventional cooking products and microwave

ovens on the electric and gas utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information

Administration (EIA)’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). a 

# NEMS is a public domain,

multi-sectoral, partial equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses

NEMS to produce a baseline energy forecast for the U.S., the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

. The AEO for 2008 (AEO2008) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030. 1 

# DOE used a

variant of this model, re ferred to here as NEMS-BT, b 

# to account for the impacts of equipment

efficiency standards on the baseline energy forecast . DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of a

comparison between model results for the AEO2008 Reference Case and for policy cases in

which standards are in place, and applies th e same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2008 . For

example, the operating characteristics (e.g., energy conversion efficiency, emissions rates) of

future electricity generating pl ants are as specified in the AEO2008 Reference Case, as are the

prospects for natural gas supply.

The utility impact analysis re ports the changes in installed capacity and generation, by

fuel type, that result for each trial standard leve l (TSL), as well as changes in residential and

commercial sector electricity and natural gas consumption.

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in

the analysis of energy efficiency standards. NE MS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well

known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition,

the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits th e modeling of interact ions among the various

energy supply and demand sectors and the economy as a whole, producing a complete picture of

the effects of energy-efficiency standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to

estimate marginal effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of efficiency

standards than considering only average effects.

The utility impact analysis us es the assumptions of the AEO2008 and treats conventional

cooking product and microwave oven e fficiency standards as variati ons in policy. The effect of

a 

# For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling Sy stem: An Overview 2003 , DOE/EIA

0581(2003), March, 2003.

b 

# DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any

modification to code or data. Because this analysis en tails some minor code modifications and the model is run

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMS

BT (BT is DOE = s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT

was previously called NEMS-BRS.

# the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2008 Reference Case and each

proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standa rds reduces total natural gas

demand by less than one percent in any given year, its effect cannot be detected directly in the

simulations. Therefore, DOE mode led larger reductions in dema nd and interpolated results for

the TSLs. DOE assumed the effects to be linear within the range of inte rpolation. This method

is discussed in more deta il below and in Appendix 14A.

DOE also considered the High a nd Low Economic Growth Cases of AEO2008 . The

AEO2008 Reference Case corresponds to medium growth. The High Economic Growth Case

assumes higher projected growth rates for population, labor force, and labor productivity,

resulting in lower predicted inflation and intere st rates, and higher a ggregate economic growth,

relative to the reference case. The opposite is true for the Low Economic Growth Case. The

High Growth Case reflects an average annual growth in gross domestic product of 3.4 percent

per year compared with 3.0 percen t per year in the Reference Ca se, and 2.2 percent per year in

the Low Growth Case. Different economic growth scenarios affect the rate of growth of

electricity demand. DOE ran the High and Low Economic Growth Cases only for the proposed

standard.

14.3 METHOD

DOE used the national energy savings develope d in the national impact analysis (Chapter

10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The ma gnitude of the energy decrement that would be

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger

than the highest efficiency standard under cons ideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher use reduction levels in NEMS

BT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate the

results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. A detailed

description of the in terpolation method is given in Appendix 14A.

Policy runs are executed by reducing electr icity and natural gas consumption in the

NEMS-BT Residential and Commer cial Demand Modules. Energy use reductions are applied to

the residential cooking end use for cooking products and microwave ovens. The savings are then

divided among U.S. Census divisions. All fu els are considered simu ltaneously, however the

residential and commercial TSLs ar e run separately using NEMS-BT.

Although the current time hor izon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the residential

conventional cooking product and microwave oven energy-efficiency standards analysis extend

to the year 2042. It is not feasible to extend the forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of

this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an a pproved method for extra polation of many outputs

beyond 2030. While it might seem reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in

practice this is not advisable b ecause outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in

the fuel mix implied by extrapolations of t hose outputs could be inconsistent with the

extrapolation of marginal emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to

14-2

# guarantee consistency is beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great

deal of uncertainty. Therefore, all extrapolat ions beyond 2030 are simple replications of year

2030 results. While these may se em unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are

guaranteed to be consistent. As with the AEO Reference Case in general, the implicit

assumption is that the regulatory environment doe s not deviate from the current known situation

during the extrapolation period. Only changes that have been announced with date-certain

introduction are included in NEMS-BT. To emph asize the extrapolated results wherever they

appear, they are shaded in gray to dis tinguish them from actual NEMS-BT results.

14.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for generation, installed capacity,

and residential-sector consumption. Results are fo r all TSLs presented in five-year increments to

year 2030, including High and Low Growth cases fo r just the proposed TSL. Beyond year 2030,

an extrapolation to 2042 for each proposed TSL re presents a simple replication of the year 2030

results.

The results from the AEO2008 Reference Case are shown in Table 14.4.1.

A separate set of TSLs are modeled for each energy efficiency standard product. A total

of four TSLs are modeled for residential conven tional cooking products and four for residential

microwave ovens. The reference case results for each TSL are presented in Tables 14.4.2

through 14.4.9, respectively. The results from proposed residential conventional cooking

products are presented in Tables 14.2.2 through 1 4.2.5 and the results from proposed residential

microwave ovens are presented in Tables 14.2.6 through 14.2.9. Each table shows forecasts

using interpolated results, as described in section 14.3 for total U.S. electricity generation and

installed capacity.

Residential cooking products result in d ecreases to electricity and natural gas

consumption for all TSLs compared to the AEO2008 Reference Case with the exception of TSL

1, which forecasts no changes in electricity c onsumption. The natural gas savings predicted by

the National Impacts Analysis (NIA) Model rang e from 0.1 to 0.3 percent of total residential

natural gas consumption by year 2030 with electr icity savings amounting to less than 0.0 percent

for all TSLs.

Residential microwave ovens save electric ity for the four TSLs compared to the

AEO2008 Reference Case, with no savings from natu ral gas consumption. The electricity savings

predicted by the National Impact s Analysis (NIA) Model range fr om 0.0 to 0.2 percent of total

residential electricity consumption by year 2030.

14-3

# Table 14.4.1 AEO2008 Reference Case Forecast



# NEMS-BT Results: AEO2008 Reference

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1



# Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 

# 1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,620 1,722

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.24 5.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61

Other (EJ) 2.02 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.97 4.95 5.16 5.30 5.35 5.32

Other (Quads) 3 

# 1.91 1.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67

Commercial Sector Energy Consumption 1



# Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,275 1,386 1,522 1,661 1,802 1,941

Natural Gas (EJ) 3.26 3.21 3.47 3.66 3.83 3.99

Other (EJ) 0.98 0.90 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95

Natural Gas (Quads) 3.09 3.04 3.29 3.47 3.63 3.78

Other (Quads)3 0.93 0.85 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4



# Coal (TWh) 2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836

Gas (TWh) 757 907 904 833 766 737

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 57 60 64 66

Nuclear (TWh) 782 797 807 868 911 917

Renewables (TWh) 357 462 517 588 639 658

Total (TWh) 5 

# 4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214

Installed Generating Capacity 6



# Coal (GW) 313.8 320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8

Other Fossil (GW) 7 

# 438.9 465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9

Nuclear (GW) 100.2 100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9

Renewables (GW) 99.5 118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5

Total (GW) 8 

# 952.4 1,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.1

1 

# Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2008: Energy Consumption

2 

# Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2008: Electricity Sales by Sector

3 

# Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal,

and renewable energy

4 

# Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2008: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

5 

# Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

6 

# Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2008: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

7 

# Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

8 

# Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells



# The results from the AEO2008 High Economic Growth Reference Case and AEO2008

Low Economic Growth Reference Case for the one proposed TSL is presented in Tables 14.4.10

and 14.4.11, respectively.

14-4Table 14.4.2Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,620 1,722Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)2.021.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76Other (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.95 5.16 5.30 5.34 5.31Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.911.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67Other (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836Coal (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Gas (TWh)757 907 904 833 766 737Gas (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Petroleum (TWh)123 56 57 60 64 66Petroleum (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 868 911 917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 462 517 588 639 658Renewables (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214Total (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.9 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-5Table 14.4.3Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4501,4721,5401,6201,721Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.60.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.225.445.595.645.61NaturalGas (EJ)0.000.000.000.00-0.01-0.01-0.010.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other(EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.955.165.305.345.31NaturalGas (Quads)0.000.000.000.00-0.01-0.010.000.000.00Other (Quads)1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other(Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836Coal(TWh)0.00.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4Gas (TWh)757 907 904 833 766 737Gas (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Petroleum (TWh)123 56 57 60 64 66Petroleum (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 868 911 917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 462 517 588 639 658Renewables (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Total (TWh)4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214Total (TWh)0.00.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.4 378.8 413.8Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.8 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-6Table 14.4.4Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,620 1,722Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.22 5.44 5.59 5.64 5.60Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01Other (EJ)2.021.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76Other (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.95 5.16 5.29 5.34 5.31Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01Other (Quads)1.911.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67Other (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,575 2,836Coal (TWh)0.00.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5Gas (TWh)757 907 904 833 766 737Gas (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Petroleum (TWh)123 56 57 60 64 66Petroleum (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 868 911 917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 462 517 588 639 658Renewables (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,214Total (TWh)0.00.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.4 378.7 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.9Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.3 1,104.8 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-7Table 14.4.5Residential Conventional Cooking Products Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,450 1,472 1,540 1,619 1,721Electricity Sales (TWh)0.00.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.22 5.44 5.58 5.63 5.60Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01Other (EJ)2.021.86 1.87 1.86 1.79 1.76Other (EJ)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.95 5.16 5.29 5.34 5.31Natural Gas (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01Other (Quads)1.911.76 1.77 1.76 1.70 1.67Other (Quads)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,182 2,358 2,574 2,835Coal (TWh)0.00.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7Gas (TWh)757 907 904 833 766 737Gas (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Petroleum (TWh)123 56 57 60 64 66Petroleum (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 868 911 917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 462 517 588 639 658Renewables (TWh)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,277 4,467 4,707 4,955 5,213Total (TWh)0.0-0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 328.7 349.3 378.7 413.7Coal (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.0 436.6 444.6 467.0 493.8Other Fossil (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 110.9 115.7 114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.3 125.6 134.4 143.4 149.5Renewables (GW)0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.2 993.0 1,039.2 1,104.8 1,171.9Total (GW)0.00.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.214-8Table 14.4.6Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference Case200520102015202020252030200520102015202020252030203520402042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,3591,4501,4721,5391,6191,721Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00.0-0.4-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.0-1.1-1.1Natural Gas (EJ) 5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads) 4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads) 1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3572,5742,835Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.2-0.6-0.9-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8Gas (TWh)757907903832766737Gas (TWh)0.0-0.2-0.7-0.6-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3Petroleum (TWh) 1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh) 782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh) 357462517588639658Renewables (TWh) 0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4664,7064,9545,213Total (TWh)0.0-0.3-1.1-1.3-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0328.7349.4378.7413.7Coal (GW)0.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Other Fossil (GW) 438.9465.0436.6444.6467.0493.8Other Fossil (GW) 0.00.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Nuclear (GW) 100.2100.9102.1110.9115.7114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (GW) 99.5118.3125.6134.4143.4149.5Renewables (GW) 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Total (GW)952.4 1,004.2992.9 1,039.2 1,104.8 1,172.0Total (GW)0.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.114-9Table 14.4.7Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference Case200520102015202020252030200520102015202020252030203520402042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,3591,4501,4711,5391,6191,721Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00.0-0.6-1.2-1.3-1.5-1.6-1.8-1.8Natural Gas (EJ) 5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads) 4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads) 1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1822,3572,5742,835Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.3-0.8-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2-1.2Gas (TWh)757907903832766737Gas (TWh)0.0-0.4-1.0-0.8-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.5Petroleum (TWh) 1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh) 782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh) 357462517588639658Renewables (TWh) 0.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2Total (TWh)4,0344,2774,4664,7054,9535,212Total (TWh)0.0-0.5-1.5-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8-1.8Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0328.7349.3378.7413.7Coal (GW)0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Other Fossil (GW) 438.9465.0436.5444.5466.9493.8Other Fossil (GW) 0.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Nuclear (GW) 100.2100.9102.1110.9115.7114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (GW) 99.5118.3125.6134.4143.4149.5Renewables (GW) 0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Total (GW)952.4 1,004.2992.9 1,039.2 1,104.7 1,171.9Total (GW)0.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.214-10Table 14.4.8Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference Case200520102015202020252030200520102015202020252030203520402042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,3591,4501,4711,5381,6181,720Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00.0-0.9-1.8-2.1-2.4-2.7-3.0-3.2Natural Gas (EJ) 5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads) 4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads) 1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1812,3572,5732,834Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.5-1.3-2.0-1.9-1.9-1.9-1.9Gas (TWh)757906902832765736Gas (TWh)0.0-0.6-1.6-1.2-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.8-0.8Petroleum (TWh) 1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Nuclear (TWh) 782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh) 357462517588639658Renewables (TWh) 0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3Total (TWh)4,0344,2764,4654,7044,9525,211Total (TWh)0.0-0.8-2.4-2.8-2.8-3.0-3.0-3.0-3.0Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0328.7349.3378.6413.7Coal (GW)0.00.00.0-0.1-0.2-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Other Fossil (GW) 438.9465.0436.5444.5466.9493.8Other Fossil (GW) 0.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Nuclear (GW) 100.2100.9102.1110.9115.7114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (GW) 99.5118.3125.6134.4143.4149.4Renewables (GW) 0.00.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (GW)952.4 1,004.2992.9 1,039.1 1,104.6 1,171.8Total (GW)0.00.0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.314-11Table 14.4.9Residential Microwave Ovens Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Reference Case200520102015202020252030200520102015202020252030203520402042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh) 1,3591,4501,4711,5381,6171,719Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00.0-1.3-2.4-2.9-3.4-3.9-4.4-4.6Natural Gas (EJ) 5.245.225.445.595.645.61Natural Gas (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (EJ)2.021.861.871.861.791.76Other (EJ)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Natural Gas (Quads) 4.974.955.165.305.355.32Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Other (Quads) 1.911.761.771.761.701.67Other (Quads)0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0152,0552,1812,3562,5722,833Coal (TWh)0.00.0-0.7-1.8-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.7-2.7Gas (TWh)757906902831765736Gas (TWh)0.0-0.9-2.3-1.6-0.7-1.1-1.1-1.1-1.1Petroleum (TWh) 1235657606466Petroleum (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Nuclear (TWh) 782797807868911917Nuclear (TWh)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (TWh) 357462517588639658Renewables (TWh) 0.0-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.4Total (TWh)4,0344,2764,4644,7034,9515,210Total (TWh)0.0-1.1-3.3-3.7-3.9-4.2-4.2-4.2-4.2Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0328.7349.3378.6413.6Coal (GW)0.00.00.0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2Other Fossil (GW) 438.9465.0436.5444.5466.8493.7Other Fossil (GW) 0.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2Nuclear (GW) 100.2100.9102.1110.9115.7114.9Nuclear (GW)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Renewables (GW) 99.5118.3125.6134.3143.3149.4Renewables (GW) 0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1Total (GW)952.4 1,004.2992.8 1,039.0 1,104.5 1,171.6Total (GW)0.00.0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.514-12Table 14.4.10Residential Cooking Products Trial StandardLevel 1 High Economic Growth Case ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 High Economic Growth CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,455 1,495 1,587 1,690 1,824Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.23 5.51 5.74 5.84 5.87Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)2.021.86 1.87 1.88 1.84 1.81Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.96 5.22 5.44 5.53 5.56Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.911.76 1.77 1.78 1.74 1.72Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,055 2,229 2,540 2,806 3,129Coal (TWh)0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2Gas (TWh)757 942 964 823 766 731Gas (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Petroleum (TWh)123 56 57 61 63 67Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 888 966 1,047Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 463 520 599 664 689Renewables (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,313 4,577 4,911 5,265 5,663Total (TWh)-0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 335.6 374.7 410.5 456.0Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9465.5 443.6 452.5 479.9 510.2Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 113.6 122.9 131.8Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5118.4 126.3 136.5 148.3 155.5Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,004.8 1,007.5 1,077.2 1,161.6 1,253.5Total (GW)0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014-13Table 14.4.11Residential Cooking Products Trial StandardLevel 1 Low Economic Growth Case ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2008 Low Economic Growth CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,444 1,448 1,495 1,550 1,619Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Natural Gas (EJ)5.245.21 5.39 5.46 5.44 5.34Natural Gas (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00Other (EJ)2.021.87 1.85 1.83 1.76 1.73Other (EJ)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Natural Gas (Quads)4.974.94 5.11 5.18 5.15 5.06Natural Gas (Quads) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00Other (Quads)1.911.77 1.75 1.73 1.67 1.64Other (Quads)0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,015 2,054 2,144 2,232 2,363 2,538Coal (TWh)0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4Gas (TWh)757 876 831 794 758 730Gas (TWh)0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1Petroleum (TWh)123 56 56 59 64 65Petroleum (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (TWh)782 797 807 854 860 837Nuclear (TWh)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (TWh)357 457 511 568 612 624Renewables (TWh) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (TWh)4,034 4,240 4,349 4,507 4,657 4,794Total (TWh)-0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8320.0 325.1 334.3 351.8 376.2Coal (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other Fossil (GW)438.9464.7 427.8 435.5 452.0 467.9Other Fossil (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Nuclear (GW)100.2100.9 102.1 108.9 108.9 104.4Nuclear (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Renewables (GW)99.5117.0 122.8 130.0 137.5 140.3Renewables (GW) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Total (GW)952.41,002.6 977.8 1,008.6 1,050.1 1,088.7Total (GW)0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.114-14

# 1 

# REFERENCES

U.S. Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook

2008 (Revised Early Release) with Projections to 2030 . 2008: Washington, DC.

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ >

14-15