T-i

APPENDIX T. BASE CASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

T.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................... T-1

T.2 BASE CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS ................................... T-1

T.3 STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS ............................. T-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table T.2.1 Base Case Historical and Projected Shipment-Weighted Efficiencies ........ T-2

Table T.3.1 $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipment-Weighted 

Efficiencies ................................................... T-4

Table T.3.2 $135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipment-Weighted 

Efficiencies ................................................... T-5
T-1

APPENDIX T. BASE CASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS

T.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix provides the shipment-weighted average energy efficiency ratios (EER)

corresponding to the base case historical and forecasted efficiency trends and the standards case

forecasted efficiency trends. The base case and standards case represent the projections without

and with new standards, respectively. As detailed in Chapter 10 of this TSD, the efficiency trends

are necessary for determining historical and forecasted per unit values for the following: annual

energy consumption, total annual installed cost, and total annual operating cost. The above value

are used in the determination of the national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV).

T.2 BASE CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS

Table T.2.1 shows the annual historical and forecasted shipment-weighted EER values

comprising the based case historical and forecasted efficiency trends. There are two sets of values:

one for the $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h equipment class and the other for the $135,000

Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h equipment class. As described in Chapter 10, the Department developed

the base case efficiency trends from a combination of limited historical efficiency for commercial

unitary air conditioners and historical efficiency trends for residential central air conditioners.
T-2

Table T.2.1 Base Case Historical and Projected Shipment-Weighted Efficiencies

$65 to <135 kBtu/h $135 to <240 kBtu/h $65 to <135 kBtu/h $135 to <240 kBtu/h

Year EER EER Year EER EER

1976 6.31 5.93 2006 10.17 9.84

1977 6.44 6.06 2007 10.21 9.87

1978 6.56 6.18 2008 10.24 9.90

1979 6.69 6.31 2009 10.27 9.94

1980 6.81 6.44 2010 10.30 9.97

1981 6.94 6.56 2011 10.33 10.00

1982 7.07 6.69 2012 10.37 10.03

1983 7.19 6.81 2013 10.40 10.07

1984 7.32 6.94 2014 10.43 10.10

1985 7.44 7.06 2015 10.46 10.13

1986 7.57 7.19 2016 10.49 10.16

1987 7.69 7.31 2017 10.53 10.19

1988 7.82 7.44 2018 10.56 10.23

1989 7.94 7.56 2019 10.59 10.26

1990 8.07 7.69 2020 10.62 10.29

1991 8.20 7.82 2021 10.65 10.32

1992 8.32 7.94 2022 10.68 10.35

1993 8.45 8.07 2023 10.71 10.38

1994 9.31 8.89 2024 10.74 10.41

1995 9.39 9.00 2025 10.77 10.44

1996 9.47 9.10 2026 10.80 10.47

1997 9.54 9.21 2027 10.83 10.50

1998 9.62 9.32 2028 10.86 10.53

1999 9.70 9.42 2029 10.89 10.56

2000 9.80 9.49 2030 10.92 10.59

2001 10.01 9.68 2031 10.95 10.62

2002 10.04 9.71 2032 10.97 10.65

2003 10.08 9.74 2033 11.00 10.68

2004 10.11 9.77 2034 11.03 10.71

2005 10.14 9.81 2035 11.06 10.74

1976-1993: Efficiency trend estimated from 1982-1991 residential central air conditioner efficiency trend.

1994: Efficiency jump equivalent to percentage jump in residential central air conditioner efficiency in 1992.

1995-2001: Efficiency trend estimated from 1992-1999 residential central air conditioner efficiency trend.

2002-2030: Efficiency trend 1⁄2 the growth rate from the 1992-1999 residential central air conditioner efficiency trend.
T-3

T.3 STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY TRENDS

Table T.3.1 shows the standards case forecasted shipment-weighted EER values for the

$65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h equipment class while Table T.3.2 shows the standards case

forecasted shipment-weighted EER values for the $135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h equipment

class. The assumed effective date of new standards is 2008 for all standards cases with the

exception of the ASHRAE 90.1-1999 standards case where the effective date is 2004. Thus,

shipment-weighted EER values preceding the year 2008 are identical to the EER values in the

base case. In the case of the ASHRAE 90.1-1999 standards case, EER values preceding the year

2004 are identical to the EER values in the base case. 
T-4

Table T.3.1 $65,000 Btu/h to <135,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipment-Weighted

Efficiencies

Standards Case

Year ASHRAE 10.5 EER 11.0 EER 11.5 EER 12.0 EER

2004 10.43 10.11 10.11 10.11 10.11

2005 10.46 10.14 10.14 10.14 10.14

2006 10.49 10.17 10.17 10.17 10.17

2007 10.52 10.21 10.21 10.21 10.21

2008 10.55 10.70 11.10 11.54 12.00

2009 10.59 10.73 11.13 11.57 12.00

2010 10.62 10.76 11.16 11.61 12.00

2011 10.65 10.80 11.19 11.64 12.00

2012 10.68 10.83 11.23 11.67 12.00

2013 10.71 10.86 11.26 11.70 12.00

2014 10.75 10.89 11.29 11.73 12.00

2015 10.78 10.92 11.32 11.77 12.00

2016 10.81 10.96 11.35 11.80 12.00

2017 10.84 10.99 11.38 11.83 12.00

2018 10.87 11.02 11.42 11.86 12.00

2019 10.90 11.05 11.45 11.89 12.00

2020 10.93 11.08 11.48 11.92 12.00

2021 10.96 11.11 11.51 11.95 12.00

2022 11.00 11.14 11.54 11.98 12.00

2023 11.03 11.17 11.57 12.00 12.00

2024 11.06 11.20 11.60 12.00 12.00

2025 11.09 11.23 11.63 12.00 12.00

2026 11.11 11.26 11.66 12.00 12.00

2027 11.14 11.29 11.69 12.00 12.00

2028 11.17 11.32 11.72 12.00 12.00

2029 11.20 11.35 11.75 12.00 12.00

2030 11.23 11.38 11.78 12.00 12.00

2031 11.26 11.41 11.80 12.00 12.00

2032 11.29 11.44 11.83 12.00 12.00

2033 11.32 11.46 11.86 12.00 12.00

2034 11.35 11.49 11.89 12.00 12.00

2035 11.37 11.52 11.92 12.00 12.00
T-5

Table T.3.2 $135,000 Btu/h to <240,000 Btu/h: Forecasted Shipment-Weighted

Efficiencies

Standards Case

Year ASHRAE 10.0 EER 10.5 EER 11.0 EER 11.5 EER 12.0 EER

2004 10.02 9.77 9.77 9.77 9.77 9.77

2005 10.05 9.81 9.81 9.81 9.81 9.81

2006 10.08 9.84 9.84 9.84 9.84 9.84

2007 10.12 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87 9.87

2008 10.15 10.34 10.67 11.08 11.53 12.00

2009 10.18 10.37 10.70 11.11 11.57 12.00

2010 10.21 10.40 10.73 11.15 11.60 12.00

2011 10.25 10.44 10.76 11.18 11.63 12.00

2012 10.28 10.47 10.80 11.21 11.66 12.00

2013 10.31 10.50 10.83 11.24 11.70 12.00

2014 10.34 10.53 10.86 11.28 11.73 12.00

2015 10.38 10.57 10.89 11.31 11.76 12.00

2016 10.41 10.60 10.93 11.34 11.79 12.00

2017 10.44 10.63 10.96 11.37 11.83 12.00

2018 10.47 10.66 10.99 11.40 11.86 12.00

2019 10.50 10.69 11.02 11.43 11.89 12.00

2020 10.53 10.72 11.05 11.47 11.92 12.00

2021 10.56 10.76 11.08 11.50 11.95 12.00

2022 10.60 10.79 11.11 11.53 11.98 12.00

2023 10.63 10.82 11.15 11.56 12.00 12.00

2024 10.66 10.85 11.18 11.59 12.00 12.00

2025 10.69 10.88 11.21 11.62 12.00 12.00

2026 10.72 10.91 11.24 11.65 12.00 12.00

2027 10.75 10.94 11.27 11.68 12.00 12.00

2028 10.78 10.97 11.30 11.71 12.00 12.00

2029 10.81 11.00 11.33 11.74 12.00 12.00

2030 10.84 11.03 11.36 11.77 12.00 12.00

2031 10.87 11.06 11.39 11.80 12.00 12.00

2032 10.90 11.09 11.42 11.83 12.00 12.00

2033 10.93 11.12 11.44 11.86 12.00 12.00

2034 10.95 11.15 11.47 11.89 12.00 12.00

2035 10.98 11.17 11.50 11.92 12.00 12.00