Electric Power and 

Electric Power and 

Going Forward from 

Going Forward from 

Committee for Energy Resources and the EnN

A

R

U

C Winter Com

mittee Meetings

Februar

y 14, 2006

W

a

s

hington, DC

Presentatio

n of t

he Office of Air and Radiation, U.S
Trends in Electric Generation an Trends in Electric Generation and Air Emissions 

d Air Emissions 

-50

%

-40

%

-30

%

-20

%

-10

%

0%

10%20%30%40%

Percent Change

Fossil Energy Use

S

Electricity Generation

Price of Electricity

Particulates

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 

Sources: EPA (fossil energy use and emissions) and EIA (electricity generation and pr
Changes in Sulfate and Nitrate Conce

Changes in Sulfate and Nitrate Conce

Wet Sulfa1990 and Nitrate D1990 and 

Sour

c

e: N

ational At

and Cl

e

an Air Statu

s
Environmental Benefits Environmental Benefits Human 

Human 

In the course of imassessing the Acid that in addition to tthere are consideraCounties have been bNAAQS.A recent study puts a

• Over 18,000 cmortality• Over 15,000 fe

children with ascases of acute fewer nonfatal h• Over 2 million 

Overall the quantif

the Acid Rain Progbillion.

The Acid Rain Progquantified human hregulatory program benefits exceeding 

The Acid Rain Program, created byTitle IV of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments, was a regional response to an environmental problem —acidification of lakes and streams. We have monitored significant emission reductions of SO2 and NOx, 

resulting in important environmental benefits, at a significantly lower-thanexpected cost:

• Improvements in acid 

deposition, over 30 percent reduction in sulfur deposition in the eastern U.S. 

• Improved visibility in national 

parks and wilderness areas

• Signs of recovery in acidic 

lakes and streams
NOx Emissions and Ozone Levels Have Declined across 

Emissions and Ozone Levels Have Declined across 

Reductions i

2002 

Total NOx Budget Trading Program 

Ozone Season NOx Emissions

Source: Evaluating Ozone Control Focus on the NOx Budget Trading 
CAIR, CAMR, CAVR, and Other Action

CAIR, CAMR, CAVR, and Other Action

C

AIR States controlled for fine

particles (annual SO2 and N

Ox)

States not in

C

AIR face CAVR

C

AIR States c

ontrolled for

ozone (ozone season NOx)

CAIR States controlled for both fine particles (annual SO2 and NOx) and ozone 

(ozone season NOx)

CAIR Region
CAIR, CAMR, CAVR Implementati

Phase I: CAIR NOx Programs 

(ozone-season and annual)

(09)

Phase I: CAIR SO2 Program 

(10)

SIPs 

Due

(Sep 06)

CSP Early Emission Reductio

n Period 

(annual CAIR NOx program)

(07 and 08)

E

i

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 

CAIR

States develop SPs

(18 months)

N

CAMR

Rule 

signed

CAIR Rule 

signed

CAMR and CAVR

SPs Due

(Nov 06) Phase I: Hg Program (10) 

Regional H

a

z

e

SIPs

D

u

e (

Dec 07)

BART Co(5 years 

CAVR
CAIR, CAMR, and CAVR Lower Power Ind

CAIR, CAMR, and CAVR Lower Power Ind

Source: EPA

SO

2 Emissions

NO

x Emissions Hg 

• Projected annual 

—

$ 2.7 billion 

—

$ 6.1 billion 

• Reasonable chan

—

electricity and 

—

coal producti

—

electric gener

0 —

allowance pri

5

101520

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Million Tons

02468

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Million Tons

0

1020304050

2000 2005 

Tons
Benefits Are Substantia

Benefits Are Substanti

• By 2020, CAIR, CAMR, and 

CAVR will result in $120-140 billion in health benefits each year, preventing:

–

22,000 premature deaths

–

29,000 non-fatal heart attacks

–

32,000 hospital admissions

–

2 million work loss days

– 430,000 school absence days

• Almost $2 billion in improved 

visibility b

enefit

s each year

• Other non-m

– Impr

ove

–

Reduced 

–

Decreas

damag

e 

–

Decreas

nitrogen 

–

Reduced 

surface forest ecand coa

–

Reducti

Collectively, Title IV and these programs are providing a very large set o

f benefits to the 
Implementation of New Programs Is 

Implementation of New Programs Is 

• There is “fast track” reconsideratio

parts of rules

• States are defining programs for E

approval

• EPA is devising federal plans for C

CAMR as a backstop

• Litigation is developing, while pass

Clear Skies remains a high priority
For More Information on Power Sector 

For More Information on Power Sector 

Acid Rain Program: http://www.epa.govNOx SIP call: http://www.epa.govClean Air Interstate Rule:

http://www.epa.gov

Clean Air Mercury Rule:

http://www.epa.gov

Clean Air Visibility Rule:

http://www.epa.gov

Multi-Pollutant Analyses: http://www.epa.gov