energy.gov/sunshot

energy.gov/sunshot

Photovoltaic System 

Pricing Trends

Historical, Recent, and Near-Term 

Projections

2014 Edition

David Feldman1, Galen Barbose2, Robert 

Margolis1, Ted James1, Samantha Weaver2, Naïm

Darghouth2, Ran Fu1, Carolyn Davidson1, Sam 

Booth1, and Ryan Wiser2

September 22, 2014

1National Renewable Energy Laboratory

2Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

NREL/PR-6A20-62558
energy.gov/sunshot

Contents

• Introduction and Summary

• Historical and Recent Reported Prices

• Recent Prices from Bottom-up Cost Analysis

• Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-up Price Estimates

• Near Future Price Trends

• Conclusion

2
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• There exists a need for reliable and comprehensive information on PV system 

pricing.

• Differences between various attempts to estimate the cost and price of 

solar in the market; this briefing is designed to explain some of these 

variances

• Rapid market growth and changes to PV system pricing in recent years

• Policy support for PV deployment premised on stimulating cost reductions 

through market scale and development

• DOE SunShot Initiative seeks to reduce PV system prices 75% over the 

2010-2020 period.

• This briefing provides a high-level overview of historical, recent, and 

projected near-term PV system pricing trends in the United States, drawing 

on several ongoing research activities at LBNL and NREL:

• LBNL’s annual Tracking the Sun report series (“reported system prices”)

• NREL’s bottom-up PV cost modeling (“modeled system prices”)

• NREL’s synthesis of PV market data and projections.

Introduction

3
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• Reported pricing for PV system installations completed in 2013, based in part on data reported to PV incentive programs: 

• Residential and small commercial (≤10 kW) was $4.69 /W (median)

• Large commercial (>100 kW) was $3.89/W (median)

• Utility-scale (≥5 MW, ground-mounted) was $3.00/W (capacity weighted average).

• Modeled solar PV system prices, using industry validated tools, quoted in Q4 2012 (and expected to be installed in 2013):

• Residential (5 kW) was $3.71/W

• Commercial (223 kW) was $2.61/W 

• Utility-scale (185 MW) was $1.92/W.

• Delta between reported and modeled pricing is due to various factors, such as market fundamentals (e.g., large fraction of 

data for reported prices is from CA and other high-priced markets), inefficient pricing (i.e., value-based pricing), project 

characteristics (e.g., high-efficiency panels with single-axis tracking), and long temporal lags between contract signing and 

installation for large utility-scale projects .

• Reported system prices of residential and commercial PV systems declined 6%–7% per year, on average, from 1998–2013, 

and by 12%–14% from 2012–2013, depending on system size.

• Market analysts expect system prices to continue to fall, but module prices to stabilize in near-term.

• Modeled system prices quoted in Q4 2013 (and expected to be installed in 2014):

• Residential (5 kW) was $3.29/W, a reduction of 12% from Q4 2012 

• Consistent with leading residential installers’ pricing, such as SolarCity’s reported Q2 2014 costs ($3.03/W), plus 

a reasonable operating profit margin

• Commercial (200 kW) was $2.54/W, a reduction of 3% from Q4 2012

• Utility-scale (185 MW) was $1.80/W, a reduction of 5% from Q4 2012.

Executive Summary

Note: All PV installed price data are reported in terms of real 2013 dollars per Watt-DC.

4
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Reported, Bottom-up, and Analyst-projected 

Average U.S. PV System Prices over Time 

Note: The reported system price for the residential market is the median price reported for systems less than or equal to 10 kW. 

The modeled residential system price represents a ~5 kW system. The reported system price for the commercial market is the 

median price reported for commercial systems greater than 100 kW. The modeled commercial system price represents a ~200 kW 

rooftop system. The reported system price for the utility-scale market is the capacity-weighted average reported price for groundmounted systems greater than or equal to 5 MW in size, with a capacity-weighted average project size of 150 MW in 2013. The 

modeled system price of utility-scale systems represents a ~175 MW fixed-tilt ground-mounted system. Modeled system prices for 

all sectors are representative of bids issued in the fourth quarter of the previous year. The Global Module Price Index is the 

average module selling price for the first buyer (P Mints SPV Market Research).

5

• All methodologies show a downward trend in PV system pricing

• Reported pricing and modeled benchmarks historically had similar results, however have recently 

diverged in estimated pricing.

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P 2016P

2013$/WDC

Installation Year

Analyst Expectations, Distributed PV

Analyst Expectations, Utility-Scale

Reported System Price, Residential (Median)

Reported System Price, Commercial (Median)

Reported System Price, Utility (Cap-Wtd. Avg.)

Modeled System Price, Residential

Modeled System Price, Commercial

Modeled System Price, Utility

Analyst Expectations of Module Price Global Module Price Index
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Contents

• Introduction and Summary

• Historical and Recent Reported Prices

• Recent Prices from Bottom-up Cost Analysis

• Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-up Price Estimates

• Near Future Price Trends

• Conclusion

6
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• Prices are derived from project-level data reported for PV systems installed 

through year-end 2013 (and from a more limited set of states for H1 2014)

• Data Sources

• Residential and commercial PV (<5 MW and/or roof-mounted): Project-level data 

obtained from 60 PV incentive programs, spanning 32 states

• Utility-scale PV (>5 MW ground-mounted): Sourced from FERC Form 1, Section 

1603 Grant Program, SEC filings, company presentations, trade press articles

• Raw sample represents 80% of all grid-connected PV capacity installed in the 

United States through 2013 and 78% of all 2013 capacity additions

• All residential and commercial projects for which reported prices were 

deemed likely to represent appraised values, rather than prices paid to the 

installer/EPC, were removed from the final data sample used for analysis

• After removing these and other systems, the final data sample represents 71% of 

all grid-connected PV capacity installed in the United States through 2013 and 64% 

of all 2013 capacity additions.

Data Sources and Methodology for Reported 

Installed Prices

7
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Median Reported Installed Prices of Residential 

and Commercial PV Systems over Time

• Since 1998, reported PV system prices have fallen by 6-8% per year on average

• From 2012 to 2013, reported prices fell by $0.65/W (12%) for systems ≤10 kW and by 

$0.70/W (15%) for systems >100 kW

• By comparison, global annual average module prices rose by $0.07/W from 2012-2013.

Note: Median installed prices are shown only if 15 or more observations are available for the individual size range. The Global Module Price Index is SPV Market 

Research’s average module selling price for the first buyer (P. Mints).

8

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

1998

n=33

0.2 MW

1999

n=162

0.8 MW

2000

n=180

0.8 MW

2001

n=1,302

6 MW

2002

n=2,441

18 MW

2003

n=3,480

31 MW

2004

n=5,657

44 MW

2005

n=5,797

64 MW

2006

n=8,943

92 MW

2007

n=12,764

132 MW

2008

n=13,686

238 MW

2009

n=24,319

303 MW

2010

n=36,455

506 MW

2011

n=42,360

981 MW

2012

n=51,753

1174 MW

2013

n=50,614

1098 MW

Installed System Price and 

Global Module Price Index (2013$/WDC)

Installation Year

≤10 kW

10-100 kW

>100 kW

Residential & Commercial PV 

(Median Values)

Global Module Price Index
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Preliminary Price Trends for Systems Installed 

in H1 2014 from a Subset of State Markets

• Installations in a number of the larger PV incentive programs and state markets have 

shown continued price declines into H1 2014

• Median reported prices fell by roughly $0.24-0.48/W (5-12%) during the first half of 

2014, relative to 2013, across the three size ranges shown.

9

Note: The 2013 and H1 2014 values in this figure are based on data from a smaller set of states than elsewhere in this section, and thus the 2013 

values differ from the national median values cited previously.

$4.74 $4.50 $4.36 $3.97 $3.99 $3.52

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

≤10 kW

n=32,517 (2013) 

n=12,902 (H1 2014)

10-100 kW

n=5,851 (2013)

n=2,372 (H1 2014)

>100 kW

n=912 (2013)

n=314 (H1 2014)

Installed Price (2013$/WDC)

2013 2014 (H1)

≤10 kW 10-100 kW >100 kW

Residential & Commercial PV: AZ, CA, MA, MD, NJ, NY

(Median Values)
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Variation in Reported Price by System Size: 

Residential and Commercial PV Systems in 2013

• Reported prices exhibit clear economies of scale, with the median price for the largest 

commercial systems 35% lower than for the smallest residential systems (and lower 

installed prices for utility-scale PV, as shown on later slides)

• Substantial variability in reported prices exists within each system size range, reflecting 

different regional drivers of pricing, which may include market 

and policy dynamics, project/site-specifics, and installer specifics. 10

$4.76 $4.83 $4.57 $4.30 $4.38 $4.24 $4.15 $3.80 $3.08

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

≤2 kW

n=1,734

3 MW

2-5 kW

n=15,590

59 MW

5-10 kW

n=25,068

178 MW

10-30 kW

n=6,191

85 MW

30-100 kW

n=911

51 MW

100-250 kW

n=503

83 MW

250-500 kW

n=264

93 MW

500-1000 kW

n=157

103 MW

>1000 kW

n=196

442 MW

Installed Price (2013$/WDC)

System Size Range (kWDC)

Residential & Commercial 

PV Systems Installed in 2013

(Median and 20th/80th Percentiles)
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Variation in Reported Price by State:

Residential and Small Commercial (≤10 kW) PV in 2013 

• The median reported price differs by ~$2/W between the lowest- and highest-priced 

states, though similar variability also exists within many individual states

• Reported prices in California pull the overall sample median upwards

• Reported price differentials across states reflect a wide array of potential factors, 

including: market size and maturity, incentive levels, sales taxes, 

administrative costs, labor costs, and project characteristics.

Note: Numbers in parentheses below each state indicate the number of observations; installed price data are shown only if 15 or more observations 

are available for a given state.

11

$3.33$3.47$3.48$3.71$3.83$3.85$3.95$3.99$4.03$4.06$4.16$4.19$4.44$4.45$4.46$4.47$4.56$4.66$4.71$4.75$4.79$4.94$5.01$5.21$5.31

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

FL

19

TX

796

ME

258

DC

104

NH

241

UT

68

NJ

3156

CO

2330

CT

626

AZ

4633

DE

20

NV

141

PA

91

MA

2697

NM

833

RI

24

NY

1455

MD

56

VT

756

OR

349

WI

144

CA

25273

IL

146

MN

60

NC

480

Installed Price (2013$/WDC)

State andSample Size

Systems ≤10 kWDC Installed in 2013

(Median and 20th/80th Percentiles)
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Variation in Reported Price by State:

Large Commercial (>100 kW) PV Systems in 2013

• Median reported prices also vary widely across states for large commercial systems 

(i.e., a difference of $2.79/W between the lowest- and highest-priced states), though 

some caution is warranted given small sample sizes for individual states

• Variation across states reflect the same kinds of factors cited on prior slide (e.g., 

preponderance of large ground-mounted systems in NC, non-profit

and public agency projects in CA, etc.).

Note: Numbers in parentheses below each state indicate the number of observations; median installed prices are shown only if 15 or more 

observations are available for a given state.

12

$2.54 $2.65 $3.40 $3.54 $3.78 $4.26 $5.32

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

NC

79

CO

37

MA

117

NJ

261

NY

29

CA

404

AZ

186

Installed Price (2013$/WDC)

State (Sample Size)

Systems >100 kWDC Installed in 2013

(Median and 20th/80th Percentiles)
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Installed Price Data for Utility-scale PV: 

Important Notes and Caveats

• Utility-scale PV is defined as ground-mounted systems ≥5 MW, regardless of 

whether electricity is delivered to utility or customer

• Analysis considers only entire projects (not individual phases)

• Project sample consists of 100 fully operational projects installed through yearend 2013, totaling roughly 3,200 MW (88% of total U.S. utility-scale)

• A few important caveats: 

• Significant and uncertain lags exist between when projects are contracted 

and installed (i.e., prices reported for projects installed in 2013 may reflect 

PPAs or EPC contracts signed in 2009-2012)

• Data reliability is mixed, depending on the data sources available for any 

individual project, with possible inconsistencies in the scope of cost 

components captured

• Focus is on reported installed prices rather than levelized cost of electricity, 

and thus ignores performance differences across system configurations.

13
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Reported Price of Utility-scale PV Projects 

over Time 

• Prices have declined over time, but little movement between projects installed in 2012 and 2013 

• Capacity-weighted average prices were $2.97/W for crystalline, fixed-tilt; $3.12/W for crystalline 

with tracking; and $2.72/W for thin-film, fixed-tilt systems completed in 2013

• Majority of 2013 systems fall within a range of roughly $2.60/W to $3.20/W 

• Wide price distribution within each system type reflects variation in system size, other project 

characteristics, market and policy conditions, and contracting date

(e.g., outlying 2013 project, LADWP Pine Tree Solar Project, was 

contracted in 2010).

14

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

n=5 (88 MW) n=10 (204 MW) n=26 (482 MW) n=34 (1019 MW) n=25 (1441 MW)

Installed Price (2013$/WDC)

Installation Year

 Crystalline, Fixed-Tilt Crystalline, Tracking

 Thin-Film, Fixed-Tilt Thin-Film, Tracking

 CPV, Tracking Cap-Wtd. Averages

Utility-Scale PV

2007-2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
energy.gov/sunshot

Contents

• Introduction and Summary

• Historical and Recent Reported Prices

• Recent Prices from Bottom-up Cost Analysis

• Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-up Price Estimates

• Near Future Price Trends

• Conclusion

15
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• Detailed system pricing models for specific PV system designs were developed 

in collaboration with industry and account for all materials, labor, overhead 

and profit, land acquisition and preparation costs, and regulatory costs for a PV 

system up to the point of grid tie-in 

• Better able to determine individual components’ contributions to total 

system price

• Input data for NREL models are compiled from numerous industry and primary 

sources, for each component of a system incurred by a manufacturer and/or 

installer, and validated with manufacturers and installers (more detail on this 

methodology can be found in Goodrich et al. 2012) 

• Dialogue created differentiates the interview method from the survey 

method by allowing for greater specificity and feedback of results 

• Modeled prices represent installer bid or quoted prices for the time periods 

noted

• Modeled system sizes are similar for each market segment, and are described 

below the figures.

Methodology for Bottom-up Modeling 

16
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$6.91 

$6.06 

$4.28 

$3.74 

$3.29 

$5.11 $4.74 

$3.26 

$2.65 $2.54 

$4.36 

$3.74 

$2.54 

$1.94 $1.80 

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

Q4

2009

Q4

2010

Q4

2011

Q4

2012

Q4

2013

Q4

2009

Q4

2010

Q4

2011

Q4

2012

Q4

2013

Q4

2009

Q4

2010

Q4

2011

Q4

2012

Q4

2013

Residential Commercial Utility ground mount (Fixed axis)

2013$/

WDC

BOS

Inverter

Module

Bottom-up Modeled System Price of PV 

Systems by Sector, Q4 ’09 - Q4 ‘13 

Note: Standard crystalline silicon modules (13.5% efficiency in Q4 2009 to 15.0% in Q4 2013). System sizes: residential: 5 kW in Q4 

2009 through Q4 2013; commercial: 202 kW in Q4 2009 to 223 kW in Q4 2012 (200 kW in Q4 2013); utility-scale: 175 MW in Q4 2009 

to 185 MW to Q4 2013). Modeled system sizes in the residential and commercial rooftop sectors were chosen based on typical system 

sizes, then adjusted for optimal inverter configuration. System sizing for utility-scale benchmarks were chosen for comparison 

purposes against pricing reported from DOE’s Energy Information Administration (2010).

Source: SolarCity. (2014). “Cost Calculation Methodology.” Accessed September 2, 2014: http://investors.solarcity.com/events.cfm. 

• Since Q4 2009, modeled system prices fell between 16% – 19% per year

• 1/2 - 2/3 of reduction attributed to module price reductions

• From Q4 ‘12 to Q4 ‘13, modeled system prices fell between $0.07/W - $0.44/W, or 3-12%

• Q4 2013 bottom-up modeled residential system price of $3.29/W is consistent with leading 

residential installers’ pricing, such as SolarCity’s reported Q2 2014 costs ($3.03/W), plus a 

reasonable operating profit margin.

17
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Contents

• Introduction and Summary

• Historical and Recent Reported Prices

• Recent Prices from Bottom-up Cost Analysis

• Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-up Price Estimates

• Near Future Price Trends

• Conclusion

18
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$4.69 

$3.47 

$4.94 

$3.74 $3.89 

$2.65 

$4.26 

$2.65 $3.00 

$1.95 

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

Median

reported

price - U.S.

Median

reported

price - TX

Median

reported

price - CA

Modeled

Price - U.S.

Median

reported

price - U.S.

Median

reported

price - CO

Median

reported

price - CA

Modeled

Price - U.S.

Cap. w. avg.

reported

price - U.S.

Modeled

Price - U.S.

Residential Commercial Utility-Scale GrountMounted

System Price (2013 $/WDC)

2013 Reported Median (Residential/Commercial) and 

Capacity-weighted Average (Utility-scale) Prices vs. Q4 2012 

Bottom-up Benchmark (Quoted) Modeled Prices

Note: Many factors contribute to the reported price and overnight capital cost differing values including the 

additional costs above and beyond the overnight capital cost of a project, such as third-party financing; 

different system sizing; installation time lag; and various methods for calculating system sales price. Error 

bars for reported price data represent 20/80 percentile of datasets. The costs included in the bottom-up 

benchmarks represent national averages; there is significant cost variation for each component, depending 

on the installer, market, or time frame. The above data is representative of the following system sizing: 

median residential reported size= 5.6 kW; residential bottom-up benchmark overnight capital cost = 5 kW; 

median commercial reported size (> 100 kW) = 266 kW; commercial bottom-up benchmark overnight 

capital cost = 223 kW; cap.-weighted average ground-mounted system (≥5 MW) reported size= 149 MW; 

utility-scale bottom-up benchmark overnight cap. cost = 185 MW.

19
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Reasons for Deviations Between Reported and 

Modeled Installed Prices

• Median reported U.S. distributed system pricing is weighted heavily towards California

• CA is generally a high-cost state with relatively high retail rates that may allow for 

higher installer margins

• Bottom-up benchmark overnight capital cost are more in line with states with 

lower reported median prices (e.g., TX)

• 2013 median reported TX residential system price = $3.47/W

• Q4 2012 modeled price for residential systems = $3.74/W

• Utility-scale projects’ duration between signature of electricity sales agreement and 

placed in service date can be significant

• Reported pricing generally reflects module and other component pricing at the 

time that electricity sales agreements (PPAs) were signed

• Time lags of up to 4 years exist between date of PPA signature and commercial 

operation for utility-scale projects installed in 2013

• Bottom-up overnight capital costs represent pricing at the time of benchmark.

20
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Reasons for Deviations Between Reported and 

Modeled Installed Prices (cont.)

• Large variety in projects currently built in the United States

• Lack of standards and transparency in incentive program reporting 

• Large differences across system configurations for geographic, market, and LCOE 

purposes

• Bottom-up, modeled system prices represents a specific prototypical project

• Price and cost represent different things

• Reported pricing reflects what customers did pay for systems (i.e., what the market 

will bear). A customer’s purchase price may be significantly higher than it would be 

elsewhere, regardless of the underlying cost to the installer, due to:

• Higher electricity rates (e.g., CA) 

• Higher incentive levels (which may lower a customer’s upfront cash outlay, 

though not the price paid to the installer) 

• Lower levels of competition, consumer awareness, etc. 

• The bottom-up benchmarks are reflective of consistent, transparent cost 

assumptions and representative margins of each subcomponent to an installer, 

regardless of market conditions or incentives.

21
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Bottom-up Modeled Overnight Capital Cost of Utilityscale PV Systems by Size

Note: Standard crystalline silicon modules (14.9% efficiency in Q4 2011 and 15.0% in Q4 2012/3).

• Economies of scale for utility-scale projects are illustrated in modeled system 

prices

• Depending on the year, prices decline by 14-27% from 5 MW to 185 MW

• Most of the price reduction (~70%) accompanies increasing size from 5 MW to 20 

MW, with diminishing returns to scale beyond 20 MW. 22

$3.16 

$2.80 $2.65 

$2.45 $2.59 

$2.25 $2.11 $2.03 $1.94 $1.92 $1.88 $1.80

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

5 MW 10 MW 20 MW 185 MW

System Price (2013 $/WDC)

System Size Range (MWDC)

Q4 2011

Q4 2012

Q4 2013
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Variation in Reported Price of 2012-13 Utilityscale PV Projects by Size and Configuration 

• Reported pricing for larger systems resides within narrower range than smaller systems, but 

economies of scale are obscured within this data to some extent by other countervailing drivers:

• Technology and location-specific issues (e.g., the 320 MWDC California Valley Solar Ranch 

project uses premium efficiency modules)

• Larger systems often have longer time lag between PPA execution and project completion 

and thus may portray an earlier pricing environment (e.g., 2-4 years earlier for some of the 

largest utility-scale systems). 23

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Installed Price (2013$/WDC)

System Size (MWDC)

 Crystalline, Fixed-Tilt Crystalline, Tracking

 Thin-Film, Fixed-Tilt Thin-Film, Tracking

 CPV

Utility-Scale PV Installed in 2012 and 2013
energy.gov/sunshot

Installed Prices for Residential PV: United States vs. Germany

• Installed prices in the United States are high compared to many other major 

international PV markets; the disparity is particularly stark in comparison to Germany 

• Hardware costs are fairly similar across countries; thus the gap in total installed prices 

must reflect differences in soft costs (including installer margins)

• Suggestive of a potential for near-term installed price reductions in the United States.

Note: The German data are based on price quotes for roughly 2,300 individual PV systems obtained by EuPD through its quarterly survey of 

German installers and provided to LBNL. 

24

$4.40 $3.52 $3.29 $2.05

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

U.S. Reported Price

(Installed in 2013)

U.S. Modeled Price

(Quoted Q4 2012)

U.S. Modeled Price

(Quoted Q4 2013)

Germany Reported Price

(Quoted in 2013)

Installed Price, Excluding 

Sales Tax/VAT (2013$/WDC)
energy.gov/sunshot

Contents

• Introduction and Summary

• Historical and Recent Reported Prices

• Recent Prices from Bottom-up Cost Analysis

• Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-up Price Estimates

• Near Future Price Trends

• Conclusion

25
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$1.34 

$0.77 $0.67 $0.64 $0.60 $0.59 

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

2011 2012 2013 2014P 2015P 2016P

2013 $/Watt

Median and Range of Analyst Expectations of 

Global Module Average Selling Price

Historic Projection

Sources: Lines represent the median, max., and min of ASP for First Solar, Trina Solar, Yingli , and global-weighted average from 

the following analysts: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, "PV Market Outlook Q2 2014" (05/15/14); Cowen (05/07/14, 

05/21/14); Deutsche Bank (11/28/12, 05/07/14, 05/21/14, 06/18/14); Goldman Sachs (05/21/14); GTM Research, "GTM 

Research Global PV Price Outlook Q2 2014“ (April 2014); Stifel Nicolaus (02/26/14); UBS (05/07/14). Note: historic pricing in 

this slide uses a different dataset than what is used in other sections of this report.

• Global module prices in 2013 remain at historically low levels

• Mixed forecasts on future module ASP

• However, not expected to increase or decrease dramatically in price

• By 2016 global ASP projected to be between $0.55/W - $0.65/W

• Major system price reductions are not expected to come from PV module price 

alone, as was the case in previous years

• Due to current and pending U.S. tariffs on Chinese and Taiwanese solar products, 

ASP in U.S. may be considerably higher than global average.

26
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Analyst Estimates (2012-13) and Projections 

(2014–2016) of Global Average System Price 

• Analysts expect the system prices of both utility-scale and distributed systems to 

continue to fall in the near future

• Distributed systems are expected to reach between $1.50/W - $3.00/W by 2016

• Utility-scale systems are expected to reach between $1.30 - $1.95/W by 2016.

Note: P = projection. Data represent the max. and min. figures from: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (05/15/14); 

Cowen & Company (04/24/14); Deutsche Bank (04/23/14, 05/06/14, 05/08/14); Stifel Nicolaus (03/20/14). Inflation 

adjusted 2013-14: EIA, AEO, Table 20, Gross Domestic Product, August 2012. 

Historic Projection Historic Projection

27

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

2012 2013 2014P 2015P 2016P

System Price (2013 $/WDC)

Distributed Systems

Range of Analyst

Projections

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

2012 2013 2014P 2015P 2016P

System Price (2013 $/WDC)

Utility-Scale Systems

Range of Analyst

Projections
energy.gov/sunshot

Range of Analyst Expectations of Long-term 

System Price

28

PV Installed Cost (2010 $/W)

• Analysts expect pricing in all PV markets to 

continue to decrease in the long-term

• Low-end of analyst projections get very 

close to SunShot target by 2020-2030

• High-end still approximately $1.00-

$1.50/W above targets, though these 

estimates align with some of today’s 

modeled prices

• Current analyst projections are far lower 

than projections made in recent past

• 2020 price projections are 

approximately 1⁄2 of what same 

analysts projected 5-10 years ago.

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

2015P 2020P 2025P 2030P 2035P 2040P

Residential-scale PV

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

2015P 2020P 2025P 2030P 2035P 2040P

Commercial-scale PV

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

2015P 2020P 2025P 2030P 2035P 2040P

Utility-scale PV Range of Analyst

Projections

Sources: Greenpeace/EREC, “Energy Revolution,” May 2014 (utility-scale only); 

International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2013,” November 2013 ( 

New Policy & 450 Scenarios for utility-scale & commercial-scale); Bloomberg 

New Energy Finance, Q2 2014, “PV Market Outlook” (05/15/14); U.S. Energy 

Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 ER (December 2013). 

In years where projection was not made, most recent projection used. 
energy.gov/sunshot

Contents

• Introduction and Summary

• Historical and Recent Reported Prices

• Recent Prices from Bottom-up Cost Analysis

• Comparison Between Reported and Bottom-up Price Estimates

• Near Future Price Trends

• Conclusion

29
energy.gov/sunshot

• Continued system price reductions in 2013; more expected in the near-term, despite U.S. tariffs on 

foreign PV modules

• Reported distributed system pricing fell 12-15% from 2012-2013

• Modeled system prices fell 4-12% from Q4 2012 to Q4 2013.

• Despite downward trend, large variation in reported pricing within market segment in 2013

• A difference of roughly $2.00/W in median reported price between the lowest- and highestpriced states for residential & commercial systems ≤10 kW, and similar variability also exists 

within individual states

• The reported price of utility-scale projects generally ranged from $2.60/W to $3.20/W, 

though some of those systems may have been contracted in 2010-2012 (or earlier)

• Difference between reported and modeled system prices for similarly segmented systems in 2013

• Residential ($4.69/W reported price, $3.71/W modeled price); commercial ($3.89/W 

reported price, $2.61/W modeled price); utility-scale ($3.00/W reported price, $1.92/W 

modeled price) 

• Delta between reported and modeled pricing is due to various factors, such as market 

fundamentals (e.g., large fraction of data for reported prices is from CA and other high-priced 

markets), inefficient pricing (i.e., value-based pricing), project characteristics(e.g., highefficiency panels with single-axis tracking), and long temporal lags between contract signing 

and installation for large utility-scale projects.

Conclusion

30
energy.gov/sunshot

• Barbose, G.; Darghouth, N.; Weaver, S.; Wiser, R. (2014). Tracking the Sun VII: An Historical Summary of 

the Installed Price of Photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to 2013. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence 

Berkeley National Laboratory.

• Bolinger, M.; Weaver, S. (2014). Utility-Scale Solar 2013: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, 

Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States. Berkeley, CA: Lawrence Berkeley National 

Laboratory.

• Davidson, C.; James, T.; Margolis, R.; Feldman, D.; Fu, R. (forthcoming). U.S. Residential Photovoltaic (PV) 

System Prices, Q4 2013 Benchmarks: Cash Purchase, Fair Market Value, and Prepaid Lease Transaction 

Prices. 

• Feldman D.; Barbose, G.; Margolis, R.; Darghouth, N.; James, T.; Weaver, S.; Goodrich, A.; Wiser. R. (2013). 

Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections. 2013 Edition. NREL/PR6A20-60207. Golden, CO: NREL.

• Feldman, D.; Barbose, G.; Margolis, R.; Wiser. R.; Darghouth, N.; Goodrich, A. (2012). Photovoltaic System 

Pricing Trends: Historical, Recent, and Near-Term Projections. Golden, CO: NREL.

• Feldman, D.; Friedman, B.; Margolis, R. (2013). Financing, Overhead, and Profit: An In-Depth Discussion 

of Costs Associated with Third-Party Financing of Residential and Commercial Photovoltaic Systems. 

NREL/TP-6A20-60401. Golden, CO: NREL.

• Goodrich, A.; James, T.; Woodhouse, M. (2012). Residential, Commercial, and Utility-Scale Photovoltaic 

(PV) System Prices in the United States: Current Drivers and Cost-Reduction Opportunities. NREL/TP-6A20-

53347. Golden, CO: NREL. Accessed July 2014: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/53347.pdf. 

• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). (2012). SunShot Vision Study. DOE/GO-102012-3037. Washington, 

D.C.: DOE. Accessed 2013: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/pdfs/47927.pdf.

For Further Reading, Please see the 

Following Reports:

31
energy.gov/sunshot

To download this briefing, please go to the following link:

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/62558.pdf

Thank You

David Feldman

Senior Financial Analyst

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

202-488-2231 

david.feldman@nrel.gov

Galen Barbose

Electricity Markets and Policy Group

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

510-984-3453

glbarbose@lbl.gov