### File Name: Southeast Pacific National Model Results and Implicit Prices.docx

Author: Robert Johnston, Clark University Created: April 22, 2012 Purpose: Presents results for the Southeast, Pacific, and National models and implicit prices.

Southeast Model

----------------------------------------------------------- Random Parameters Logit Model Dependent variable CHOICE Log likelihood function -1087.64936 Restricted log likelihood -1429.29459 Chi squared [ 21 d.f.] 683.29045 Significance level .00000 McFadden Pseudo R-squared .2390307 Estimation based on N = 1301, K = 21 Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized AIC 1.70430 2217.29872 Fin.Smpl.AIC 1.70486 2218.02116 Bayes IC 1.78777 2325.88738 Hannan Quinn 1.73562 2258.03996 Model estimated: Apr 22, 2012, 17:17:21 R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj No coefficients -1429.2946 .2390 .2328 Constants only -1424.7210 .2366 .2304 At start values -1351.9411 .1955 .1889 Response data are given as ind. choices Replications for simulated probs. = 300 Halton sequences used for simulations RPL model with panel has 452 groups Variable number of obs./group =NUM_R Hessian is not PD. Using BHHH estimator Number of obs.= 1301, skipped 0 obs

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

--------+--------------------------------------------------

|Random parameters in utility functions NEITHER| .08004 .34193 .234 .8149 COM_FISH| .12104*** .04574 2.646 .0081 FISH_POP| .12531* .07138 1.756 .0791 FISH_SAV| .02568*** .00536 4.788 .0000 AQUATIC| .23161*** .07885 2.937 .0033

|Nonrandom parameters in utility functions COST| -.03487*** .00351 -9.925 .0000 |Diagonal values in Cholesky matrix, L. NsNEITHE| .02489 1.16784 .021 .9830 NsCOM_FI| .01256 .43228 .029 .9768 NsFISH_P| .08486 .20178 .421 .6741 NsFISH_S| .01846 .05535 .333 .7388 NsAQUATI| .00591 .69561 .008 .9932

|Below diagonal values in L matrix. V = L*Lt COM_:NEI| .09442 .13770 .686 .4929 FISH:NEI| .03781 .32135 .118 .9063 FISH:COM| .00438 .61612 .007 .9943 FIS0:NEI| .03246 .02836 1.145 .2523FIS0:COM| -.00679 .02754 -.247 .8053

FISH:FIS| .05647** .02444 2.311 .0208 AQUA:NEI| .05925 .30359 .195 .8453 AQUA:COM| .00056 .55064 .001 .9992 AQUA:FIS| .10245 .37752 .271 .7861 AQU0:FIS| .02843 .97494 .029 .9767

|Standard deviations of parameter distributions sdNEITHE| .02489 1.16784 .021 .9830 sdCOM_FI| .09525 .16377 .582 .5608 sdFISH_P| .09301 .13918 .668 .5040 sdFISH_S| .06804*** .00952 7.146 .0000 sdAQUATI| .12186 .12918 .943 .3455

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

-----------------------------------------------------------



### Southeast Implicit Prices

(mean) wtp_com_mean (commercial fish)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% .2236123 -.8637941 5% 1.304497 -.4304979 10% 1.676588 -.3228604 Obs 1000 25% 2.488792 -.2671875 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 3.459751 Mean 3.485886 Largest Std. Dev. 1.418334 75% 4.377421 7.541116 90% 5.235903 8.107364 Variance 2.011671 95% 5.889648 8.308438 Skewness .2015446 99% 7.121258 8.757973 Kurtosis 3.188882

(mean) wtp_pop_mean (fish populations)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -1.039833 -2.962959 5% .2690535 -2.898425 10% .890952 -2.059894 Obs 1000 25% 2.105135 -1.894804 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 3.589215 Mean 3.566378 Largest Std. Dev. 2.080331 75% 4.930809 10.11586 90% 6.23446 10.20357 Variance 4.327776 95% 6.980173 10.70294 Skewness .107905699% 8.58456 11.05226 Kurtosis 3.076542

(mean) wtp_sav_mean (fish saved)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% .3042319 .1872632 5% .4571621 .2273846 10% .5338929 .2457991 Obs 1000 25% .6380361 .2816228 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% .7451622 Mean .7500981 Largest Std. Dev. .1758228 75% .8591187 1.294807 90% .9733276 1.307335 Variance .0309137 95% 1.03682 1.318621 Skewness .0737353 99% 1.160266 1.432299 Kurtosis 3.368375

(mean) wtp_aquat_mean (aquatic ecological condition)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% 1.556682 .1630543 5% 2.996514 .4170399 10% 3.833922 .7290352 Obs 1000 25% 5.106832 .7831686 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 6.649085 Mean 6.608701 Largest Std. Dev. 2.120746 75% 8.075081 11.77098 90% 9.429636 12.0448 Variance 4.497563 95% 9.997237 12.16875 Skewness -.0954042 99% 11.2398 12.68839 Kurtosis 2.727858

(mean) wtp_ne_mean (neither)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -19.34488 -28.41809 5% -13.51094 -23.34863 10% -10.3989 -22.66824 Obs 1000 25% -4.584957 -22.43248 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 2.446349 Mean 2.467409 Largest Std. Dev. 10.02336 75% 9.352653 30.06958 90% 15.33246 31.91542 Variance 100.4678 95% 18.96697 35.8087 Skewness .1154557 99% 26.80494 35.9838 Kurtosis 2.868726

### Pacific Model

----------------------------------------------------------- Random Parameters Logit Model Dependent variable CHOICE Log likelihood function -562.23980 Restricted log likelihood -789.90224 Chi squared [ 21 d.f.] 455.32488 Significance level .00000 McFadden Pseudo R-squared .2882160 Estimation based on N = 719, K = 21 Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized AIC 1.62236 1166.47960 Fin.Smpl.AIC 1.62421 1167.80528 Bayes IC 1.75607 1262.61468 Hannan Quinn 1.67399 1203.59540 Model estimated: Apr 22, 2012, 17:32:29 R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj No coefficients -789.9022 .2882 .2777 Constants only -771.1350 .2709 .2601 At start values -700.8599 .1978 .1859 Response data are given as ind. choices Replications for simulated probs. = 300 Halton sequences used for simulations RPL model with panel has 252 groups Variable number of obs./group =NUM_R Hessian is not PD. Using BHHH estimator Number of obs.= 719, skipped 0 obs

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

--------+--------------------------------------------------

|Random parameters in utility functions NEITHER| .24593 .54100 .455 .6494 COM_FISH| .10278 .10424 .986 .3241 FISH_POP| .14215 .15130 .940 .3475 FISH_SAV| .05323*** .01141 4.664 .0000 AQUATIC| .20853 .16636 1.254 .2100

|Nonrandom parameters in utility functions COST| -.02226*** .00483 -4.606 .0000 |Diagonal values in Cholesky matrix, L. NsNEITHE| .02585 1.92718 .013 .9893 NsCOM_FI| .18565 .20440 .908 .3637 NsFISH_P| .03347 .69974 .048 .9619 NsFISH_S| .00125 .03691 .034 .9729 NsAQUATI| .00411 .86938 .005 .9962

|Below diagonal values in L matrix. V = L*Lt COM_:NEI| -.08344 .45281 -.184 .8538 FISH:NEI| -.05870 1.73310 -.034 .9730 FISH:COM| -.12284 .69983 -.176 .8607 FIS0:NEI| -.07104 .06998 -1.015 .3101 FIS0:COM| -.08362*** .02607 -3.208 .0013 FISH:FIS| .08501 .05337 1.593 .1112 AQUA:NEI| -.07288 1.39184 -.052 .9582 AQUA:COM| -.15845 .61451 -.258 .7965 AQUA:FIS| .03904 .62660 .062 .9503 AQU0:FIS| .05540 .90550 .061 .9512|Standard deviations of parameter distributions

sdNEITHE| .02585 1.92718 .013 .9893 sdCOM_FI| .20354 .15901 1.280 .2005 sdFISH_P| .14019 .36490 .384 .7008 sdFISH_S| .13881*** .05278 2.630 .0085 sdAQUATI| .18715 .50826 .368 .7127

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

-----------------------------------------------------------



### Pacific Implicit Prices
(mean) wtp_com_mean (commercial fish)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -7.510356 -20.48093 5% -3.159734 -14.29271 10% -1.596153 -12.48514 Obs 1000 25% 1.182721 -9.13056 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 4.555395 Mean 4.668253 Largest Std. Dev. 5.262986 75% 7.831376 22.9592 90% 10.97572 23.32092 Variance 27.69902 95% 13.35037 29.00284 Skewness .3137904 99% 18.05316 35.45219 Kurtosis 5.142877

(mean) wtp_pop_mean (fish populations)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -10.7121 -18.78801 5% -5.116292 -17.81035 10% -2.542348 -14.30822 Obs 1000 25% 1.69776 -12.97616 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 6.240451 Mean 6.425806 Largest Std. Dev. 7.323897 75% 11.16351 32.01194 90% 15.40836 34.35149 Variance 53.63946 95% 17.60995 39.25428 Skewness .2904005 99% 25.54737 39.28387 Kurtosis 4.056088

(mean) wtp_sav_mean (fish saved)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest1% .981652 .6234958

5% 1.386178 .6327551 10% 1.600408 .6504993 Obs 1000 25% 2.00852 .8094065 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 2.442385 Mean 2.523469 Largest Std. Dev. .7963372 75% 2.944375 5.731445 90% 3.505964 6.457134 Variance .6341529 95% 3.895989 6.795372 Skewness 1.035102 99% 4.856879 7.572512 Kurtosis 6.318829

(mean) wtp_aquat_mean (aquatic ecological condition)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -7.855547 -12.18817 5% -3.032719 -11.70226 10% -.0585298 -11.2896 Obs 1000 25% 4.036183 -11.08055 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 9.342838 Mean 9.501716 Largest Std. Dev. 7.66782 75% 14.89314 29.42223 90% 19.57861 30.18184 Variance 58.79546 95% 22.37729 30.46628 Skewness .061153 99% 27.64764 38.03311 Kurtosis 2.901673

(mean) wtp_ne_mean (neither)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -49.25056 -93.66266 5% -28.72911 -67.05045 10% -20.63055 -64.64733 Obs 1000 25% -6.32554 -59.46623 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 11.71259 Mean 11.71992 Largest Std. Dev. 26.76131 75% 28.4077 95.92377 90% 45.23193 106.8534 Variance 716.1677 95% 54.16753 123.815 Skewness .3594497 99% 81.05875 172.4442 Kurtosis 4.669529

### National Model

----------------------------------------------------------- Random Parameters Logit Model Dependent variable CHOICE Log likelihood function -616.89165 Restricted log likelihood -811.87448 Chi squared [ 21 d.f.] 389.96567 Significance level .00000 McFadden Pseudo R-squared .2401638 Estimation based on N = 739, K = 21 Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized AIC 1.72636 1275.78329 Fin.Smpl.AIC 1.72811 1277.07200 Bayes IC 1.85723 1372.49455 Hannan Quinn 1.77683 1313.07392 Model estimated: Apr 22, 2012, 18:02:21 R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj No coefficients -811.8745 .2402 .2292 Constants only -805.4242 .2341 .2230 At start values -775.8467 .2049 .1934 Response data are given as ind. choices Replications for simulated probs. = 300 Halton sequences used for simulations RPL model with panel has 255 groups Variable number of obs./group =NUM_R Hessian is not PD. Using BHHH estimator Number of obs.= 739, skipped 0 obs

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

--------+--------------------------------------------------

|Random parameters in utility functions NEITHER| -.06065 .60390 -.100 .9200 COM_FISH| .17407*** .06579 2.646 .0082 FISH_POP| .25141** .12384 2.030 .0423 FISH_SAV| .03938*** .01084 3.631 .0003 AQUATIC| .14043 .13630 1.030 .3029

|Nonrandom parameters in utility functions COST| -.03539*** .00461 -7.674 .0000 |Diagonal values in Cholesky matrix, L. NsNEITHE| .02280 1.82792 .012 .9900 NsCOM_FI| .11356 .36372 .312 .7549 NsFISH_P| .07251 .49877 .145 .8844 NsFISH_S| .04776 .05389 .886 .3754 NsAQUATI| .01872 .84064 .022 .9822

|Below diagonal values in L matrix. V = L*Lt COM_:NEI| -.07705 .42188 -.183 .8551 FISH:NEI| -.04347 .66558 -.065 .9479 FISH:COM| .08115 .63964 .127 .8990 FIS0:NEI| -.03514 .03370 -1.043 .2970 FIS0:COM| .07059** .03526 2.002 .0453 FISH:FIS| .05559 .04930 1.128 .2594 AQUA:NEI| -.05742 .75415 -.076 .9393 AQUA:COM| .09180 .73542 .125 .9007 AQUA:FIS| .08123 .74781 .109 .9135 AQU0:FIS| -.08482 .96640 -.088 .9301|Standard deviations of parameter distributions

sdNEITHE| .02280 1.82792 .012 .9900 sdCOM_FI| .13724 .52054 .264 .7921 sdFISH_P| .11719 .56426 .208 .8355 sdFISH_S| .10766* .05600 1.922 .0545 sdAQUATI| .16083 1.21828 .132 .8950

--------+-------------------------------------------------- Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

-----------------------------------------------------------



### National Implicit Prices

(mean) wtp_com_mean (commercial fish)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% .3118616 -3.101501 5% 1.838782 -.6003115 10% 2.36054 -.5051885 Obs 1000 25% 3.557184 -.4101208 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 4.851745 Mean 4.932185 Largest Std. Dev. 2.034849 75% 6.259032 11.23473 90% 7.550846 11.32668 Variance 4.14061 95% 8.336624 12.34929 Skewness .1721227 99% 10.28735 12.8065 Kurtosis 3.432281

(mean) wtp_pop_mean (fish populations)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -.8204392 -4.257964 5% 1.348822 -3.185169 10% 2.570023 -2.564177 Obs 1000 25% 4.476906 -2.558569 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 7.063716 Mean 7.042491 Largest Std. Dev. 3.562502 75% 9.468084 18.47582 90% 11.51123 20.06612 Variance 12.69142 95% 12.78401 20.25187 Skewness .1683655 99% 15.82641 20.2639 Kurtosis 3.232233

(mean) wtp_sav_mean (fish saved)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest1% .3628202 .0623806

5% .5871555 .1428859 10% .7528626 .1505261 Obs 1000 25% .9285767 .2178649 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 1.133572 Mean 1.133615 Largest Std. Dev. .319346 75% 1.336526 2.034399 90% 1.533895 2.075957 Variance .1019819 95% 1.683643 2.285186 Skewness .0131563 99% 1.863661 2.343618 Kurtosis 3.371251

(mean) wtp_aquat_mean (aquatic ecological condition)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -5.004539 -7.98331 5% -2.717822 -7.806982 10% -1.345806 -5.93499 Obs 1000 25% 1.256552 -5.712672 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 3.840142 Mean 3.940125 Largest Std. Dev. 3.996901 75% 6.82944 14.34924 90% 9.173847 14.38133 Variance 15.97522 95% 10.55594 14.64678 Skewness .0395873 99% 13.13864 14.74431 Kurtosis 2.703255

(mean) wtp_ne_mean (neither)

------------------------------------------------------------- Percentiles Smallest 1% -44.67022 -67.33024 5% -30.9112 -58.99779 10% -24.53077 -52.40181 Obs 1000 25% -13.95949 -50.9551 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% -1.789497 Mean -2.094554 Largest Std. Dev. 17.57439 75% 10.47608 43.90951 90% 19.78996 45.98992 Variance 308.859 95% 25.0063 52.95684 Skewness -.1213626 99% 38.12644 53.17143 Kurtosis 3.022591