Minority Population

Growth: 1995 to 2050
Preface

The Minority Business Development Agency (MBDA) commissioned the C

Bureau to prepare this report on “Minority Population Growth: 1995 to 20

is one of a series of products that MBDA will be developing on The Emer

Minority Marketplace to organize and disseminate information for and ab

minority business. Visit our Internet website at www.mbda.gov for more d

information about this report and county-level maps. It is our hope that th

information contained in this report will contribute to a National discussion 

the economic benefits of minority business development for all American

Our next project will develop estimates of future minority population buying 

Current buying power of minority groups is approximately 1 trillion dollars; 

increase substantially over the next 50 years as the U.S. economy grows, m

population increases, and disparities diminish in income between minorit

nonminorities.

“If America is to continue its

position as the principal economic

force in the global marketplace,

it must include all members of its

society in productive enterprise.

As this report shows, the minority

community will be getting much

larger; therefore it is necessary

to have a strong business and

economic infrastructure that will

serve both minority communities

and all of America.”

Minority Business

Development Agency

Courtland Cox, Director

Secretary of Commerce

William M. Daley

Deputy Secretary of Commerce

Robert L. Mallett
Table 1. Projections of the Population of the United States by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050

[Millions. Resident population]

Year

Total Minority

NonMinority

(NonHispanic

White)

Race Origi

White Black

American

Indian,

Eskimo,

and Aleut

Asian and

Pacific

Islander Hispanic

1995 .......................... 262.8 69.3 193.6 218.1 33.1 2.2 9.4 26.9 

2000 .......................... 274.6 77.6 197.1 225.5 35.5 2.4 11.2 31.4 

2005 .......................... 286.0 86.2 199.8 232.5 37.7 2.6 13.2 36.1 

2010 .......................... 297.7 95.3 202.4 239.6 40.1 2.8 15.3 41.1 

2015 .......................... 310.1 105.1 205.0 247.2 42.6 2.9 17.4 46.7 

2020 .......................... 322.7 115.3 207.4 254.9 45.1 3.1 19.7 52.7 

2025 .......................... 335.0 125.9 209.1 262.2 47.5 3.3 22.0 58.9 

2030 .......................... 346.9 136.9 210.0 269.0 50.0 3.5 24.3 65.6 

2035 .......................... 358.5 148.4 210.1 275.5 52.5 3.7 26.8 72.6 

2040 .......................... 370.0 160.4 209.6 281.7 55.1 3.9 29.2 80.2 

2045 .......................... 381.7 172.9 208.8 288.0 57.8 4.1 31.8 88.1 

2050 .......................... 393.9 186.0 207.9 294.6 60.6 4.4 34.4 96.5 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1996, Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 t

Current Population Reports, P25-1130, Washington, DC.

Total

Minority

Non-Minority

(Non-Hispanic White)

Black

American Indian,

Eskimo, and Aleut

Asian and

Pacific Islander

Hispanic

50

7

8

All racial and ethnic groups will grow in population from 1995 to 20502

(Figure 1). Overall, the population of the United States is projected to grow from

263 million in 1995 to 394 million in 2050, a 50-percent increase (Table 1). The

Minority population will account for nearly 90 percent of this increase of 131

million people over the 55 years of the projection.

on the state level. The report depicts these trends for individual race and ethnic

origin groups1

, as well as for a combined Minority population group. The term

“Minority” in this report is used to represent the combined population of people

who are Black, American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut, Asian, Pacific Islander, or of

Hispanic origin (who may be of any race). Equivalently, the Minority population

comprises all people other than non-Hispanic Whites (who are termed the “nonMinority” population when compared to the combined Minority population group).

The Minority population will account for nearly 90 percent of the total

growth in the U.S. population from 1995 to 2050.

2 All population totals in this report are projections rather than estimates. Implicit is the phrase “if the fertility, mortality, and migration

assumptions of the projections hold” in all statements regarding the population situation for all groups and areas for all years from

1995 to 2050.

1 The racial classification used in this report adheres to Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Statistical Directive No. 15:

“Race and Ethnic Standards for Federal Agencies and Administrative Reporting,” Federal Register 43:19269-19270, May 4, 1978.

New standards were adopted by OMB in October 1997 and will be implemented by all Federal agencies no later than January 1,

2003.
FIGURE 3.

group, second only to non-Hispanic Whites.

The Black population is projected to

reach 61 million in 2050, an increase of

83 percent. From 2015 on, more Blacks

will be added to the total population than

non-Hispanic Whites every year. The

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

population also will nearly double,

increasing 95 percent to more than

4 million people in 2050.

Every Minority group will represent an

increasing share of the future U.S.

population.

As a result of the faster growth of

minority groups, the race and ethnic

distribution will become even more

diversified as the Nation progresses through

the twenty-first century (Figure 2). Asian

and Pacific Islanders and Hispanics will

considerably expand their portion of the

total U.S. population. The Asian population

will more than double its 1995 proportion

of 4 percent to become 9 percent in 2050.

The Hispanic-origin share of the total

population will increase by 2.4 times. In

1995, 10 in every 100 people in the United

States were of Hispanic origin; by 2050,

24 in every 100 will be Hispanic.

In 1995, the Black population was the

largest minority group, representing 13

percent of the total population. Its share

of the total population will increase to 15

of 61 million (including Black

Hispanics) by 50 percent.

The faster growth of m

groups will lead to a substan

decrease of the proportion o

non-Hispanic White (i.e., no

Minority) population, a 21-po

from 74 percent to 53 perce

The Minority population m

likely will surpass the non-M

population after 2050.

The higher growth rates 

minority race and ethnic gro

relative to non-Hispanic Wh

implies that the total combin

Minority population of the U

States is growing much more 

than the non-Minority (non-H

White) population. As a gro

Minority population will more 

2

3 For this report, the group “Asian and Pacific Islander” is sometimes

referred to as “Asian.” This group will be classified into two separate

groups of “Asian” and “Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander”

in the 2000 Census of Population and Housing. The group “American

Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut” is sometimes referred to as “American

Indian” in this report, but will be classified as “American Indian and

Alaska Native” in the 2000 census.

of U.S. Population

1995

Total Population 262.8 million

2050

Total Population 393.9 million

by Race

Asian—4%

American Indian—1%

Black—13%

Hispanic White—9%

Non-Hispanic White

(Non-Minority)—74%

by Hispanic Origin

Hispanic

(of any race)—24%

Non-Hispanic—76%

by Race

Asian—9%

American Indian—1%

Black—15%

Hispanic White—22%

Non-Hispanic White

(Non-Minority)—53%

by Hispanic Origin

Hispanic

(of any race)—10%

Non-Hispanic—90%

Black and Hispanic

Population: 1995 to 2

(In millions)

1995

2010

2050

33

27

40

41

61

B

H
FIGURE 4.

5-year population increase will

expand from 8 million during the

1995-2000 period to 13 million for

2045-2050.

The non-Minority population,

on the other hand, is growing at a

much slower rate. It will add only

14 million people during the

projection period, changing from a

1995 population of 194 million to

208 million in 2050. The 5-year

increment in population size

generally will decline during the

projection, and from 2035 onward,

the non-Minority population will

decrease in size.

The combination of the high

growth of the Minority population

and the slow (and even negative)

change of the non-Minority

Minority children (aged 5 and under)

will exceed non-Minority children

by 2030.

While the total Minority

population still will be less than the

non-Minority population in 2050, the

Minority population will exceed the

non-Minority population at young ages

much earlier (Figure 5). Over time,

the relationship of a larger Minority

population will hold for increasingly

older ages. In 2030, the Minority

population will exceed the non-Minority

population at each age 0 through 5

years, with one-half million more

Minority children in these ages than

non-Minority children. By 2040, there

will be 6 million more Minority

population through age 21. In 2050,

the Minority population will exceed the

Minority and Non-Minority Population:

1995 to 2050

(In millions)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Minority

Non-Minority

FIGURE 5. Difference Between 

and Non-Minority Po

(In thousands) 

2050

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-2930-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

2030

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

Age
4

FIGURE 6.

4 “States” include the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

5 “Region” refers to the four regions: Northeast, Midwest, South

and West.

6 While the National projections were prepared for the period

1995 to 2050, the state-level projections only cover the 30-year

period, 1995 to 2025.

Even for ages 35 years and over, the

difference between these two

populations in 2030 will be reduced

by 2050 for every age from 35 to 83

years.

In 2025, the Minority population will

exceed the non-Minority population

in 5 states.

In 1995, 24 states4

 had less than

15 percent Minority of their total

population (Figure 6). Alternatively,

the non-Minority population in these

states represented 85 percent or more

of their total population. The

concentration of Minority population

was relatively greater in border and

coastal states in the South and the

West regions5

. During the projection,

the percent Minority will increase in

every state, and the state-level

concentration of Minority population

will extend northward and westward.

As a result, by 20256

, the number of

states with less than 15 percent

Minority population will decline to 11,

and most of those states will be in the

Northeast and Midwest.

In 1995, the District of Columbia,

Hawaii, and New Mexico already had

Minority populations exceeding 50

percent of their total population. By

2025

1995

Percent Minority by State

Percent Minority

Less than 15.0

15.0 to 24.99

25.0 to 49.99

50.0+

AK

WA

OR

ID

MT

WY

UT

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

MN

IA

MO

AR

IL

MI

WI

CA

NV

AZ NM

TX HI LA

IN OH

KY

TN

MS AL

FL

GA

SC

WV VA

PA

NY

ME VT

NH

NJ

DE

MD

DC

NC

AK

WA

OR

ID

MT

WY

UT

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

MN

IA

MO

AR

IL

MI

WI

CA

NV

AZ NM

TX HI LA

IN OH

KY

TN

MS AL

FL

GA

SC

WV VA

PA

NY

ME VT

NH

NJ

DE

MD

DC

NC

CO

CO
At the bottom of the distribution

— states with less

than 10 percent

Minority population —

are three states in the

Northeast, one in the

Midwest and one in

the South. They are

Maine, Vermont, New

Hampshire, Iowa, and

West Virginia,

respectively.

The states with the

highest percentage

of each race/ethnic

group will be the

same in 1995 and

2025.

Over the 30-

year projection

period, the states

with the highest

percentage of

each race/ethnic

population in total

state population will

remain the same in

2025 as in 1995.

Maine will continue

to be the state where

non-Hispanic Whites

comprise the

maximum percentage

(96 percent in 2025)

of the total state

population.

non-Minority population.

with 64 percent Asian and P

Islanders in 1995 and 66 pe

2025, will remain the state w

highest percentage of Asian 

Pacific Islander population. 

Mexico not only will continue 

the largest state proportion 

Hispanics, but also will unde

considerable increase, from 

percent to 48 percent.

The states with the low

percentage of race/ethnic po

will change over the 30 yea

although the lowest-ranked 

in 1995 remain near the bot

2025. In 1995, 28 percent o

Washington, DC population 

non-Hispanic Whites, but by 

Hawaii will become the stat

the smallest percentage of 

Hispanic White population. F

minority group, the lowest

percentage of the state pop

will be about 1 percent. Mo

will continue to be the state 

lowest percentage of Black

population. West Virginia, th

with the lowest percentage 

American Indians, Asians, a

Hispanics in 1995, will cont

host the lowest percentage 

American Indian, Eskimo, an

population, but will be repla

Arkansas for Asian and Pac

Islanders, and by Alabama 

Hispanics.

States Ranked by

Percent Minority: 2025

HI

DC

CA

NM

TX

NY

MD

NJ

AK

LA

AZ

FL

NV

GA

MS

IL

VA

SC

DE

CT

CO

NC

AL

MA

OK

RI

MI

WA

TN

KS

PA

AR

OH

OR

MO

WI

WY

UT

ID

MN

IN

NE

SD

MT

ND

KY

IA

WV

NH

VT

ME

77

74

66

60

54

47

46

45

43

43

41

40

39

39

37

35

33

43

31

31

30

29

29

28

27

26

24

24

21

20

20

19

19

18

17

17

16

16

15

15

15

14

14

13

12

10

9

6

6

4

4

FIGURE 7.
1995 to 2025, Asian and Pacific

Islanders will double their population

in 46 states and Hispanics in 44

states (Figure 8). That is, during

the three decades of the state

projections, nearly all states will

experience an increase of more than

100 percent in their Asian and

Hispanic populations. The Black

population is projected to double in

7 states, and the American Indian

population in 3 states. By contrast,

there is no state in which nonHispanic Whites will double their

population.

The population of specific

groups in some less-populated

states will more than triple, with

increases in population of 200

percent or more. The Hispanic

population of Nevada and the Asian

population of Wyoming will increase

three-fold during the projection

The non-Hispanic

White population is

projected to grow slower

than every minority race

and ethnic group in

almost all states. The

states with the largest

percentage increase in

the non-Hispanic White

population are in the West

region. However, the largest

percentage increase will be less than

40 percent (Figure 9). Furthermore,

in 11 states, the non-Hispanic White

population will undergo negative

changes. That is, the projected nonHispanic White population for these

11 states will be less in 2025 than

in 1995. Nine of these states will be

in the Northeast or Midwest, plus

California and West Virginia. The

largest percentage decline of the

non-Hispanic White population will

be in New York; its population will

be reduced by more than

1 million from 1995 to

2025, equivalent to a 12-

percent decrease.

Most of the population

increase for minority

groups will occur in the

West or the South.

Among the minority

race/ethnic groups, the

Hispanic population

increase (32 million) from

1995 to 2025 will be more tha

combined increase of the Blac

million), Asian and Pacific Isla

(13 million), and American In

Eskimo, and Aleut (1 million)

populations. A regional distrib

of population growth shows t

most of the increase for thes

groups takes place in the We

the South (Figure 10). The W

will contain about half of the

population increase of Ameri

Indians, Asians, and Hispanic

only a small share (about one-t

of the Black population grow

The South will sustain the lar

regional share (about three-f

of the Black increase, as wel

the second largest growth fo

American Indians (about one

fourth) and Hispanics (nearly 

third). The smallest share of 

Hispanic and Asian populatio

increase will take place in the

Midwest, and the least Amer

Indian increase will occur in t

Northeast.

Number of States With More Than

100 Percent Increase of Population

in Specific Race/Ethnic Groups:

1995 to 2025

Asian

Hispanic

Black

American Indian

White, Non-Hispanic

46

44

7

3

0

FIGURE 8.

Michigan

Illinois

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

Connecticut

Massachusetts

New Jersey

New York

Percent

-20 -10 0 10 20 

6
1995 to 2050 (Figure 11). During

the projection period, the Minority

youth population will more than

double, from 19 to 46 million. In

contrast, the pattern for the nonMinority youth population shows a

decline from 38 million in 1995 to 34

million in 2050. The projected

growth patterns of the Minority and

non-Minority elderly populations are

roughly parallel until 2015, sharply

widen until 2030 as the Baby

Boomers (born between 1946 and

1964) age, and narrow afterward.

Although there is some similarity in

the elderly patterns, the number of

non-Minority elderly far exceeds the

number of Minority elderly

throughout the projection.

Contrasting age distributions

within the Minority

and non-Minority

populations also are

indicated in Figure

11. For the Minority

population, youths

consistently number

about 15 million more

than the elderly, and

these two broad age

groups grow rapidly

and in a parallel

direction. However,

for non-Minority, the

youth and elderly

populations will

increase to reach 52 million 

and then remain a similar s

2050.

Every minority group will 

much younger than the no

Hispanic White population

The populations of min

race and ethnic groups are 

younger on average than th

Minority population (Figure 

general, these age distribut

differences are largely a fun

higher fertility (such as for Hi

and Blacks) or the impact o

international migration (suc

Hispanics and Asians) relativ

non-Minority.

In 1995, the Minority

population’s median age wa

Northeast—16%

South—59%

Total Increase: 1.1 million

West—49%

Midwest—20%

Northeast—5%

South—26%

Total Increase: 12.6 million

West—56%

Midwest—9%

Northeast—19%

South—16%

Total Increase: 32.0 million

West—50%

Midwest—7%

Northeast—13%

South—30%

American Indian,

Eskimo, and Aleut

Asian and Pacific Islander

Hispanic

Minority and Non-Minority Popula

Aged 0-14 and 65 Years and Ove

1995 to 2050

(In millions)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Minority, 0-14

Minority, 65 Years 

Non-Minority, 0-14

Non-Minority, 65 Years and Ov

FIGURE 11.
years, 8.4 years younger than the

non-Minority (36.6). By 2050, the

difference will be even larger, when

the median age for the Minority

population will be 32.3 years, almost

12 years younger than the median

age (44.0) for the non-Minority

population. The large increase in

median age of the non-Minority

population results, in part, from the

aging of the Baby-Boom generation

and the projected continuation of

low fertility rates.

The median ages for minority

groups varied from 26.3 (Hispanic)

to 30.6 (Asian) years old in 1995.

By 2050, the minority groups will

become more similar in their median

ages. Asians, the oldest among the

minority groups, will have a median

age of 34.8 in 2050, 4 years older

than in 1995. On the other hand,

the median ages of Hispanics, the

youngest group, and American

are based on the latest official Census

Bureau National and state-level

projections as of July 1, 1999. These

projections are consistent with the

1990 census as enumerated, and

are projected forward using the

cohort-component method for future

fertility, mortality, and net immigration

levels (and internal migration for

states). For National level projections,

this report uses the “middle series”

in the Census Bureau’s Current

Population Report P25-1130,

Population Projections of the United

States by Age, Sex, Race, and

Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050

(February 1996). The middle series

applies the middle of the three

assumptions for each of the

components of change. For state

level projections, this report uses the

“preferred series” in the Census

Bureau’s report PPL-47, Population

Projections for States by Age, Sex,

Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to

2025 (October 1996). The preferred

series uses a demographically based

time series, which is different in the

internal migration assumptions from

an alternative series using an

economically based set of

assumptions.

Hispanic origin have becom

available, which, when incor

in updated projections, may 

some different trends from t

indicated by the current proj

Therefore, precautions sho

used when interpreting the 

from this report.

Minority Non-Minority

(Non-Hispanic

White)

Black American

Indian,

Eskimo,

and Aleut

Asian

and

Pacific

Islander

Hispanic

8
MINORITY BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AGENCY

Contact

This report was prepared by 

He and Frank Hobbs of the U

Census Bureau and funded 

Minority Business Developm

Agency, U.S. Department of

Commerce.

For further information and

additional copies, contact:

Richard L. Stevens

Chief, Office of Market Acce

 Room 5093

Minority Business

 Development Agency

U.S. Department of Commer

Washington, DC 20230

202-482-4671

rstevens@mbda.gov

or visit MBDA’s website at

www.mbda.gov