File Name: Southeast Pacific National Model Results and Implicit Prices.docx

Author: Robert Johnston, Clark University

Created: April 22, 2012

Purpose: Presents results for the Southeast, Pacific, and National models and implicit prices.

Southeast Model

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Random Parameters Logit Model

Dependent variable CHOICE

Log likelihood function -1087.64936

Restricted log likelihood -1429.29459

Chi squared [ 21 d.f.] 683.29045

Significance level .00000

McFadden Pseudo R-squared .2390307

Estimation based on N = 1301, K = 21

Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized

AIC 1.70430 2217.29872

Fin.Smpl.AIC 1.70486 2218.02116

Bayes IC 1.78777 2325.88738

Hannan Quinn 1.73562 2258.03996

Model estimated: Apr 22, 2012, 17:17:21

R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj

No coefficients -1429.2946 .2390 .2328

Constants only -1424.7210 .2366 .2304

At start values -1351.9411 .1955 .1889

Response data are given as ind. choices

Replications for simulated probs. = 300

Halton sequences used for simulations

RPL model with panel has 452 groups

Variable number of obs./group =NUM_R

Hessian is not PD. Using BHHH estimator

Number of obs.= 1301, skipped 0 obs

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Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

--------+--------------------------------------------------

|Random parameters in utility functions

NEITHER| .08004 .34193 .234 .8149

COM_FISH| .12104*** .04574 2.646 .0081

FISH_POP| .12531* .07138 1.756 .0791

FISH_SAV| .02568*** .00536 4.788 .0000

AQUATIC| .23161*** .07885 2.937 .0033

|Nonrandom parameters in utility functions

COST| -.03487*** .00351 -9.925 .0000

|Diagonal values in Cholesky matrix, L.

NsNEITHE| .02489 1.16784 .021 .9830

NsCOM_FI| .01256 .43228 .029 .9768

NsFISH_P| .08486 .20178 .421 .6741

NsFISH_S| .01846 .05535 .333 .7388

NsAQUATI| .00591 .69561 .008 .9932

|Below diagonal values in L matrix. V = L*Lt

COM_:NEI| .09442 .13770 .686 .4929

FISH:NEI| .03781 .32135 .118 .9063

FISH:COM| .00438 .61612 .007 .9943

FIS0:NEI| .03246 .02836 1.145 .2523
FIS0:COM| -.00679 .02754 -.247 .8053

FISH:FIS| .05647** .02444 2.311 .0208

AQUA:NEI| .05925 .30359 .195 .8453

AQUA:COM| .00056 .55064 .001 .9992

AQUA:FIS| .10245 .37752 .271 .7861

AQU0:FIS| .02843 .97494 .029 .9767

|Standard deviations of parameter distributions

sdNEITHE| .02489 1.16784 .021 .9830

sdCOM_FI| .09525 .16377 .582 .5608

sdFISH_P| .09301 .13918 .668 .5040

sdFISH_S| .06804*** .00952 7.146 .0000

sdAQUATI| .12186 .12918 .943 .3455

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Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

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Southeast Implicit Prices

(mean) wtp_com_mean (commercial fish)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% .2236123 -.8637941

5% 1.304497 -.4304979

10% 1.676588 -.3228604 Obs 1000

25% 2.488792 -.2671875 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 3.459751 Mean 3.485886

Largest Std. Dev. 1.418334

75% 4.377421 7.541116

90% 5.235903 8.107364 Variance 2.011671

95% 5.889648 8.308438 Skewness .2015446

99% 7.121258 8.757973 Kurtosis 3.188882

(mean) wtp_pop_mean (fish populations)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -1.039833 -2.962959

5% .2690535 -2.898425

10% .890952 -2.059894 Obs 1000

25% 2.105135 -1.894804 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 3.589215 Mean 3.566378

Largest Std. Dev. 2.080331

75% 4.930809 10.11586

90% 6.23446 10.20357 Variance 4.327776

95% 6.980173 10.70294 Skewness .1079056
99% 8.58456 11.05226 Kurtosis 3.076542

(mean) wtp_sav_mean (fish saved)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% .3042319 .1872632

5% .4571621 .2273846

10% .5338929 .2457991 Obs 1000

25% .6380361 .2816228 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% .7451622 Mean .7500981

Largest Std. Dev. .1758228

75% .8591187 1.294807

90% .9733276 1.307335 Variance .0309137

95% 1.03682 1.318621 Skewness .0737353

99% 1.160266 1.432299 Kurtosis 3.368375

(mean) wtp_aquat_mean (aquatic ecological condition)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% 1.556682 .1630543

5% 2.996514 .4170399

10% 3.833922 .7290352 Obs 1000

25% 5.106832 .7831686 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 6.649085 Mean 6.608701

Largest Std. Dev. 2.120746

75% 8.075081 11.77098

90% 9.429636 12.0448 Variance 4.497563

95% 9.997237 12.16875 Skewness -.0954042

99% 11.2398 12.68839 Kurtosis 2.727858

(mean) wtp_ne_mean (neither)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -19.34488 -28.41809

5% -13.51094 -23.34863

10% -10.3989 -22.66824 Obs 1000

25% -4.584957 -22.43248 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 2.446349 Mean 2.467409

Largest Std. Dev. 10.02336

75% 9.352653 30.06958

90% 15.33246 31.91542 Variance 100.4678

95% 18.96697 35.8087 Skewness .1154557

99% 26.80494 35.9838 Kurtosis 2.868726

Pacific Model

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Random Parameters Logit Model

Dependent variable CHOICE

Log likelihood function -562.23980

Restricted log likelihood -789.90224

Chi squared [ 21 d.f.] 455.32488

Significance level .00000

McFadden Pseudo R-squared .2882160

Estimation based on N = 719, K = 21

Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized

AIC 1.62236 1166.47960

Fin.Smpl.AIC 1.62421 1167.80528

Bayes IC 1.75607 1262.61468

Hannan Quinn 1.67399 1203.59540

Model estimated: Apr 22, 2012, 17:32:29

R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj

No coefficients -789.9022 .2882 .2777

Constants only -771.1350 .2709 .2601

At start values -700.8599 .1978 .1859

Response data are given as ind. choices

Replications for simulated probs. = 300

Halton sequences used for simulations

RPL model with panel has 252 groups

Variable number of obs./group =NUM_R

Hessian is not PD. Using BHHH estimator

Number of obs.= 719, skipped 0 obs

--------+--------------------------------------------------

Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

--------+--------------------------------------------------

|Random parameters in utility functions

NEITHER| .24593 .54100 .455 .6494

COM_FISH| .10278 .10424 .986 .3241

FISH_POP| .14215 .15130 .940 .3475

FISH_SAV| .05323*** .01141 4.664 .0000

AQUATIC| .20853 .16636 1.254 .2100

|Nonrandom parameters in utility functions

COST| -.02226*** .00483 -4.606 .0000

|Diagonal values in Cholesky matrix, L.

NsNEITHE| .02585 1.92718 .013 .9893

NsCOM_FI| .18565 .20440 .908 .3637

NsFISH_P| .03347 .69974 .048 .9619

NsFISH_S| .00125 .03691 .034 .9729

NsAQUATI| .00411 .86938 .005 .9962

|Below diagonal values in L matrix. V = L*Lt

COM_:NEI| -.08344 .45281 -.184 .8538

FISH:NEI| -.05870 1.73310 -.034 .9730

FISH:COM| -.12284 .69983 -.176 .8607

FIS0:NEI| -.07104 .06998 -1.015 .3101

FIS0:COM| -.08362*** .02607 -3.208 .0013

FISH:FIS| .08501 .05337 1.593 .1112

AQUA:NEI| -.07288 1.39184 -.052 .9582

AQUA:COM| -.15845 .61451 -.258 .7965

AQUA:FIS| .03904 .62660 .062 .9503

AQU0:FIS| .05540 .90550 .061 .9512
|Standard deviations of parameter distributions

sdNEITHE| .02585 1.92718 .013 .9893

sdCOM_FI| .20354 .15901 1.280 .2005

sdFISH_P| .14019 .36490 .384 .7008

sdFISH_S| .13881*** .05278 2.630 .0085

sdAQUATI| .18715 .50826 .368 .7127

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Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

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Pacific Implicit Prices

(mean) wtp_com_mean (commercial fish)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -7.510356 -20.48093

5% -3.159734 -14.29271

10% -1.596153 -12.48514 Obs 1000

25% 1.182721 -9.13056 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 4.555395 Mean 4.668253

Largest Std. Dev. 5.262986

75% 7.831376 22.9592

90% 10.97572 23.32092 Variance 27.69902

95% 13.35037 29.00284 Skewness .3137904

99% 18.05316 35.45219 Kurtosis 5.142877

(mean) wtp_pop_mean (fish populations)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -10.7121 -18.78801

5% -5.116292 -17.81035

10% -2.542348 -14.30822 Obs 1000

25% 1.69776 -12.97616 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 6.240451 Mean 6.425806

Largest Std. Dev. 7.323897

75% 11.16351 32.01194

90% 15.40836 34.35149 Variance 53.63946

95% 17.60995 39.25428 Skewness .2904005

99% 25.54737 39.28387 Kurtosis 4.056088

(mean) wtp_sav_mean (fish saved)

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Percentiles Smallest
1% .981652 .6234958

5% 1.386178 .6327551

10% 1.600408 .6504993 Obs 1000

25% 2.00852 .8094065 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 2.442385 Mean 2.523469

Largest Std. Dev. .7963372

75% 2.944375 5.731445

90% 3.505964 6.457134 Variance .6341529

95% 3.895989 6.795372 Skewness 1.035102

99% 4.856879 7.572512 Kurtosis 6.318829

(mean) wtp_aquat_mean (aquatic ecological condition)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -7.855547 -12.18817

5% -3.032719 -11.70226

10% -.0585298 -11.2896 Obs 1000

25% 4.036183 -11.08055 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 9.342838 Mean 9.501716

Largest Std. Dev. 7.66782

75% 14.89314 29.42223

90% 19.57861 30.18184 Variance 58.79546

95% 22.37729 30.46628 Skewness .061153

99% 27.64764 38.03311 Kurtosis 2.901673

(mean) wtp_ne_mean (neither)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -49.25056 -93.66266

5% -28.72911 -67.05045

10% -20.63055 -64.64733 Obs 1000

25% -6.32554 -59.46623 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 11.71259 Mean 11.71992

Largest Std. Dev. 26.76131

75% 28.4077 95.92377

90% 45.23193 106.8534 Variance 716.1677

95% 54.16753 123.815 Skewness .3594497

99% 81.05875 172.4442 Kurtosis 4.669529
National Model

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Random Parameters Logit Model

Dependent variable CHOICE

Log likelihood function -616.89165

Restricted log likelihood -811.87448

Chi squared [ 21 d.f.] 389.96567

Significance level .00000

McFadden Pseudo R-squared .2401638

Estimation based on N = 739, K = 21

Information Criteria: Normalization=1/N

Normalized Unnormalized

AIC 1.72636 1275.78329

Fin.Smpl.AIC 1.72811 1277.07200

Bayes IC 1.85723 1372.49455

Hannan Quinn 1.77683 1313.07392

Model estimated: Apr 22, 2012, 18:02:21

R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd R2Adj

No coefficients -811.8745 .2402 .2292

Constants only -805.4242 .2341 .2230

At start values -775.8467 .2049 .1934

Response data are given as ind. choices

Replications for simulated probs. = 300

Halton sequences used for simulations

RPL model with panel has 255 groups

Variable number of obs./group =NUM_R

Hessian is not PD. Using BHHH estimator

Number of obs.= 739, skipped 0 obs

--------+--------------------------------------------------

Variable| Coefficient Standard Error b/St.Er. P[|Z|>z]

--------+--------------------------------------------------

|Random parameters in utility functions

NEITHER| -.06065 .60390 -.100 .9200

COM_FISH| .17407*** .06579 2.646 .0082

FISH_POP| .25141** .12384 2.030 .0423

FISH_SAV| .03938*** .01084 3.631 .0003

AQUATIC| .14043 .13630 1.030 .3029

|Nonrandom parameters in utility functions

COST| -.03539*** .00461 -7.674 .0000

|Diagonal values in Cholesky matrix, L.

NsNEITHE| .02280 1.82792 .012 .9900

NsCOM_FI| .11356 .36372 .312 .7549

NsFISH_P| .07251 .49877 .145 .8844

NsFISH_S| .04776 .05389 .886 .3754

NsAQUATI| .01872 .84064 .022 .9822

|Below diagonal values in L matrix. V = L*Lt

COM_:NEI| -.07705 .42188 -.183 .8551

FISH:NEI| -.04347 .66558 -.065 .9479

FISH:COM| .08115 .63964 .127 .8990

FIS0:NEI| -.03514 .03370 -1.043 .2970

FIS0:COM| .07059** .03526 2.002 .0453

FISH:FIS| .05559 .04930 1.128 .2594

AQUA:NEI| -.05742 .75415 -.076 .9393

AQUA:COM| .09180 .73542 .125 .9007

AQUA:FIS| .08123 .74781 .109 .9135

AQU0:FIS| -.08482 .96640 -.088 .9301
|Standard deviations of parameter distributions

sdNEITHE| .02280 1.82792 .012 .9900

sdCOM_FI| .13724 .52054 .264 .7921

sdFISH_P| .11719 .56426 .208 .8355

sdFISH_S| .10766* .05600 1.922 .0545

sdAQUATI| .16083 1.21828 .132 .8950

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Note: ***, **, * = Significance at 1%, 5%, 10% level.

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National Implicit Prices

(mean) wtp_com_mean (commercial fish)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% .3118616 -3.101501

5% 1.838782 -.6003115

10% 2.36054 -.5051885 Obs 1000

25% 3.557184 -.4101208 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 4.851745 Mean 4.932185

Largest Std. Dev. 2.034849

75% 6.259032 11.23473

90% 7.550846 11.32668 Variance 4.14061

95% 8.336624 12.34929 Skewness .1721227

99% 10.28735 12.8065 Kurtosis 3.432281

(mean) wtp_pop_mean (fish populations)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -.8204392 -4.257964

5% 1.348822 -3.185169

10% 2.570023 -2.564177 Obs 1000

25% 4.476906 -2.558569 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 7.063716 Mean 7.042491

Largest Std. Dev. 3.562502

75% 9.468084 18.47582

90% 11.51123 20.06612 Variance 12.69142

95% 12.78401 20.25187 Skewness .1683655

99% 15.82641 20.2639 Kurtosis 3.232233

(mean) wtp_sav_mean (fish saved)

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Percentiles Smallest
1% .3628202 .0623806

5% .5871555 .1428859

10% .7528626 .1505261 Obs 1000

25% .9285767 .2178649 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 1.133572 Mean 1.133615

Largest Std. Dev. .319346

75% 1.336526 2.034399

90% 1.533895 2.075957 Variance .1019819

95% 1.683643 2.285186 Skewness .0131563

99% 1.863661 2.343618 Kurtosis 3.371251

(mean) wtp_aquat_mean (aquatic ecological condition)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -5.004539 -7.98331

5% -2.717822 -7.806982

10% -1.345806 -5.93499 Obs 1000

25% 1.256552 -5.712672 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% 3.840142 Mean 3.940125

Largest Std. Dev. 3.996901

75% 6.82944 14.34924

90% 9.173847 14.38133 Variance 15.97522

95% 10.55594 14.64678 Skewness .0395873

99% 13.13864 14.74431 Kurtosis 2.703255

(mean) wtp_ne_mean (neither)

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Percentiles Smallest

1% -44.67022 -67.33024

5% -30.9112 -58.99779

10% -24.53077 -52.40181 Obs 1000

25% -13.95949 -50.9551 Sum of Wgt. 1000

50% -1.789497 Mean -2.094554

Largest Std. Dev. 17.57439

75% 10.47608 43.90951

90% 19.78996 45.98992 Variance 308.859

95% 25.0063 52.95684 Skewness -.1213626

99% 38.12644 53.17143 Kurtosis 3.022591