Report of the 

Defense Science Board Task Force 

on the 

Employment of the 

National Ignition Facility 

VOLUME I 

October 2004 

Office of the Under Secretary of Defense 

For Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics 

Washington, D.C. 20301-3140 
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_____________________________________________________________________ - I -

Table of Contents 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................... 1

Summary of Recommendations................................................ 3

1. SCOPE, STUDY APPROACH, AND GENERAL FINDINGS ................. 5

1.1 Scope..................................................................... 5

1.2 Study Approach.................................................. 5

1.3 General Findings................................................. 7

1.4 General Recommendation................................. 9

2. ASSESSMENT OF PROPOSED EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAMS AT NIF10

2.1 Findings.............................................................. 10

2.2 Recommendations ............................................ 15

3. BALANCE AND PRIORITY OF ACTIVITIES..................................... 18

3.1 Findings.............................................................. 18

3.2 Recommendations ............................................ 20

4. STAKEHOLDER INTEGRATION ..................................................... 21

4.1 Findings.............................................................. 21

4.2 Recommendations ............................................ 22

APPENDIX A. TERMS OF REFERENCE..................................................... 25

Appendix B. Task Force Membership...................................27

Appendix C. Acronyms...........................................................29
____________________________________________________________________ - II -

TABLE OF FIGURES

Figure 1: General Task Force Findings..........................................7 

Figure 2: Task Force Findings and Assessment of Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Laser Performance. ......................9 

Figure 3: Task Force Findings and Assessment of Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Risks and Plans. .........................10 

Figure 4: Task Force Findings and Assessment of Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Management Issues. ...................12 

Figure 5: Task Force Recommendations on Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Laser Performance. .....................14 

Figure 6: Task Force Recommendations on Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Risks and Plans. ..........................15 

Figure 7: Task Force Recommendations on Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Management Issues. ..................16 

Figure 8: Task Force Findings on ICF Program 

Balance and Priorities....................................................17 

Figure 9: Task Force Recommendations on ICF 

Program Balance and Priorities. ..................................18 

Figure 10: Task Force Findings on 

Stakeholder Integration.................................................20 

Figure 11: Task Force Recommendations 

on Stakeholder Integration. ..........................................21 

Figure 12: Task Force Membership................................................22 
 Executive Summary

____________________________________________________________________ - 1 -

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The DSB Task Force was asked to: 

 Assess the proposed ignition and “non-ignition” high energy density 

experimental physics programs at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). 

 Assess the program’s executability, particularly with respect to the 

availability of NIF and supporting technologies.

 Assess the overall balance and priority of activities within the proposed 

plan and the degree to which the proposed program of NIF experiments 

supports the near- and long-term goals of stockpile stewardship. 

 Assess the extent to which the major stakeholders in NIF are effectively 

integrated into the plan 

The National Ignition Facility and planned programs of high energy density 

work build on a 30-year program expanding understanding of astrophysics, 

weapons physics, and other scientific areas of interest. The NIF adds new 

regimes in pressure, temperature, and density that will, given success in 

achieving ignition, provide visibility into the physical phenomena at the heart of 

nuclear explosions, astrophysics, and other very high energy density plasmas. 

Hence the NIF capability to produce thermonuclear burn will provide the muchneeded understanding of the most important remaining question in weapons 

physics. 

Achieving ignition in 2010 is, appropriately, the highest priority goal for NIF. 

The plan to build, activate, and commission the laser — the NIF Activation 

Plan—is being competently executed. The plan for activation and growth of NIF 

experimental capabilities provides the highest probability for achieving ignition 

on the planned schedule. The overall program is a well-balanced set of activities 

that supports the Stockpile Stewardship Program. The program is technically 

challenging and would strongly benefit from continued, ongoing oversight by an 

external scientific group. 

At the time of this report, the risk of achieving ignition in 2010 is high. A 

detailed risk mitigation program is needed to reduce that risk by 2010 and to 

further reduce the risk beyond 2010, should that date prove to be too ambitious. 

The risk mitigation plan, currently framed in general terms, needs to be further 

refined to provide a series of specific time-phased, measurable goals on the path 

to achieving ignition. The risk mitigation plan will need to reflect increased 

focus on ensuring that the high energy density physics (HEDP) community 

provides the diagnostics essential to success in experiments conducted in the 
 Executive Summary

____________________________________________________________________ - 2 -

NIF. An integrated diagnostics plan should include a time-phased consideration 

of the full set of potential diagnostics, to include advanced diagnostic 

capabilities. 

The current practice of subdividing high energy density goals into “ignition” 

and “high energy density physics” is neither valid nor useful. The distinction 

creates the impression that the ignition program should be separate from 

weapons physics when, in fact, the study of igniting plasmas is one of the most 

important areas in weapon science. Further, the high energy density physics 

(HEDP) regime of interest for both weapons physics and astrophysics includes: 

below ignition; ignition; and regimes well beyond initial ignition. Thus, ignition 

experiments in 2010 are continuing steps in an evolving program, not a “passfail” event. The Task Force strongly endorses a more unified, integrated 

approach to the experimental programs planned for NIF and other Inertial 

Confinement Fusion (ICF) facilities. 

There is a high degree of cooperation among key HEDP operations: Omega 

at Rochester, the Z Machine at Sandia, Nike at Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), 

Trident at LANL, and the developing NIF. Still, further work is needed to define 

and implement an integrated program across these high energy density 

operations. For the near-term, this program should support the ramp-up to 

realize the full potential of the NIF. For the longer term, an integrated program 

is needed to utilize the capabilities of this valuable set of HEDP capabilities after 

NIF becomes fully operational. The directors of the relevant laboratories need to 

agree to specific commitments to support the work to achieve ignition in the NIF. 

There needs to be a much closer interface between the NIF program and the 

military departments that depend on the effectiveness of the Stockpile 

Stewardship Program to sustain an effective nuclear deterrent. The nuclear 

weapons Project Officer Groups need a full, up-to-date, understanding of the 

current capabilities and the future potential of the science tools available for 

increased confidence, over the long term, in the continuing process of certifying 

the safety, security, and reliability of the weapons in the stockpile. While the first 

production unit milestones for the early series of weapons to undergo the life 

extension programs do not currently depend on the capabilities of the NIF, these 

capabilities will add a new level of confidence to ongoing assessment activities. 

Given that the NIF is a national capability that builds on and is part of a 

continuing community of HEDP activities, two users groups are needed. The 

first addresses priorities and activities at the NIF. This group needs to be from 

the community of users to negotiate with and advise the Director of the NIF. The 

second group needs to be composed of the directors of the relevant laboratories 

to better integrate the broader range of HEDP community activities to ensure 

that needed experiments and other activities are performed at the appropriate 

facility. 
 Executive Summary

____________________________________________________________________ - 3 -

SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS

General Recommendation: 

- Eliminate the artificial distinction between programs of experiments in HED 

for weapons physics and for ICF

• HIGH-ENERGY DENSITY PHYSICS EXPERIMENTS

 – Options for earlier availability (2009 timeframe) of increased energy operation for 

experiments at the NIF should be developed and considered. 

 – A formal “Red Team” should be chartered for both ignition and weapon physics 

activities. 

 – A detailed national plan for ignition should be produced; the plan should include 

milestones, measures of effectiveness, and accountability. 

 – The program needs to provide a detailed risk mitigation plan with milestone dates 

and measures of merit that drive all areas to no worse than “moderate” and most to 

“low.” 

 – Enhanced effort should be applied to development of new diagnostic and target 

fabrication techniques. 

 – The Program should be given sufficient flexibility to move resources between the 

ignition and weapon physics areas, as there are numerous examples where common 

activities benefit both. 

 – It is essential that adequate contingency in NIF shot shifts and other key areas be 

maintained, as surprises will occur. 

 – An external national advisory committee should be established. 

 – Ensure facility time at all ICF Program facilities is adequate to support the milestones 

outlined in the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan. 

• BALANCE AND PRIORITY OF ACTIVITIES

 – Demonstration of ignition on the current schedule should remain the highest priority 

for NIF experiments. 

 – Ensure the POG’s are routinely engaged in NIF progress and plans and their impact 

on assessment and certification activities. 

• STAKEHOLDER INTEGRATION

 – A formal process is needed to ensure optimum use of HED facilities for the range of 

needs, e.g., weapons physics, astrophysics, and very high energy density laboratory 

plasmas. 

 – A formal process is needed by which ICF program sites participate in the continuous 

updating of the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan. 

 – National participation in NIF needs to be improved. An example is diagnostics, 

where a process to ensure broader participation should be implemented. 

 – Scientists skilled in NIF technology should be readily available to the user 

community. This should be accounted for in personnel planning and recruiting. 

 – Management of the national user program at NIF should rise to the same level of 

visibility and influence as that accorded to the NIF Project. 

 – Two users groups need to be formed: 
 Executive Summary

____________________________________________________________________ - 4 -

 – To coordinate the most effective use of the national facility. 

 – A group composed of the directors of the relevant laboratories, to provide the 

needed coordination and commitment to the most effective path to ignition and 

use of HEDP facilities leading to and beyond ignition. 
 Chapter 1. Scope, Study Approach 

and General Findings

____________________________________________________________________ - 5 -

1. SCOPE, STUDY APPROACH, AND GENERAL FINDINGS

1.1 SCOPE

The Terms of Reference for the Defense Science Board Task Force on the 

Employment of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) are presented in Appendix A. 

The Task Force is to: 

 Assess the proposed ignition and “non-ignition” high energy density 

experimental physics programs at NIF. Assess the program’s 

executability, particularly with respect to the availability of NIF and 

supporting technologies. 

 Assess the overall balance and priority of activities within the proposed 

plan and the degree to which the proposed program of NIF experiments 

supports the near- and long-term goals of stockpile stewardship. 

 Assess the extent to which the major stakeholders in NIF are effectively 

integrated into the plan. 

The Task Force convened in June, 2004, and was tasked to deliver an interim 

report on its findings by the end of August, 2004. This document reports the 

Task Force findings and recommendations to date. The full cooperation of the 

HEDP community, including the commitment of the leadership of the 

community made it possible for the Task Force to do its work quickly and 

efficiently. In particular, the Task Force appreciates the valuable participation of 

the leadership of the NIF project at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 

and the leadership of HEDP programs at Sandia National Laboratory, Los 

Alamos National Laboratory, the University of Rochester, Naval Research 

Laboratory, and General Atomics, Inc. 

1.2 STUDY APPROACH

Presentations to the Task Force provided comprehensive discussions with the 

technical and administrative leadership of the NNSA Inertial Confinement 

Fusion (ICF) program. The discussions evolved as the Task Force continued to 

define the scope of its inquiry and assessments. 

The first set of briefings provided introductions and overviews of the 

program, including an overview of the National Ignition Facility at the Lawrence 

Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the high energy density physics 

experiments in support of the Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP), 
 Chapter 1. Scope, Study Approach 

and General Findings

____________________________________________________________________ - 6 -

requirements for indirect drive ignition, the physics of direct drive ignition, the 

NIF Project and plans for commissioning the facility, and diagnostic, cryogenic, 

and other activities required to support the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan. 

Presentations from representatives of the national inertial confinement fusion 

laboratory sites provided an overview of their respective inertial confinement 

fusion program, and outlined their views on issues that should be considered by 

the Task Force. 

A second set of discussions probed in detail the plans for high energy density 

weapon physics. LLNL and Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) presented 

their views on the major weapon issues to be addressed by NIF and other ICF 

facilities. Scaling and other discussions on the relevance and importance of these 

experiments to the stockpile were presented. The Task Force examined plans for 

weapon physics experiments at NIF and other facilities including Z (Sandia 

National Laboratories (SNL)), OMEGA (University of Rochester), and Nike 

(Naval Research Laboratory). These briefings provided information about the 

process by which experiments are allocated to various facilities in the SSP, 

including the overall plan for high energy density experiments and the specific 

facility requirements for each. A proper evaluation of weapon physics 

experiments planned for NIF required an understanding of the integrated 

national plan that includes all other national facilities. In addition, at this 

meeting the Office of Science and Technology Policy discussed the importance of 

basic high energy density physics to the national scientific enterprise. The Navy 

Strategic Systems Program provided a view on the role of NIF in stockpile 

stewardship and weapon life extension programs. 

A third set of discussions focused on the plan for achieving ignition on NIF. 

The presentations addressed the plans for completing and activating NIF 

(including a description of the facility characteristics available between now and 

2010), the detailed experimental plans for achieving indirect drive ignition by 

2010, and an integrated set of risks and the proposed strategy to mitigate them. 

The physics and facility modifications required for direct drive ignition were also 

described. 

The indirect drive ignition program is primarily executed at LLNL and 

LANL. The other ICF Program sites (Sandia, Rochester, Naval Research 

Laboratory, and General Atomics) presented their views on risk and the role of 

their site in the indirect-drive ignition program. The Task Force was also briefed 

on the importance of university access to National Nuclear Security 

Administration (NNSA) facilities; university involvement in diagnostics and 

other activities was strongly recommended. LANL provided a senior 

management perspective on the role of NIF in stockpile stewardship. 
 Chapter 1. Scope, Study Approach 

and General Findings

____________________________________________________________________ - 7 -

1.3 GENERAL FINDINGS

• NIF is to provide new vistas of discovery and understanding for weapons 

physics and astrophysics at the pre-ignition, ignition, and beyond initial 

ignition levels. 

• NIF capabilities are a logical extension of at least 30 years of progress in 

understanding and exploiting high energy density physics. 

• Ignition experiments in 2010 should be viewed as key steps in an evolving 

program, not a “final exam.” 

• The distinction between HED for weapons physics and for ICF is neither valid 

nor useful. In the early years of NIF operation, eighty percent of NIF activity 

is currently planned for the combination of achieving ignition and other 

activities directly supporting stockpile stewardship. 

• The current overarching near-term goals are to: 

− Complete the machine 

− Support stockpile stewardship 

− Achieve ignition in 2010 

− Lay the foundation for continued advances in HEDP 

• Users groups are needed to coordinate the most effective use of the NIF and 

to harmonize the contributions of the wider HEDP community to exploit high 

energy density physics capabilities. 

Figure 1: General Task Force Findings. 

NIF builds on the 30-year program in high energy density physics described 

in Volume II. It will open up new regimes in pressure, temperature, and 

density— including ignition. NIF is both a logical continuation of the long-term 

HEDP program and a facility providing for breakthroughs in the science of highenergy density physics. The Task Force anticipates that, given the breakthrough 

nature of planned NIF capabilities, much of what will be done on NIF in the next 

5-10 years cannot yet be defined. 

Breakthrough technologies have already been developed in the HEDP 

program. As an example, a significant amount of time is currently spent on the Z 

Machine at SNL performing material properties experiments using a technique 

known as “isentropic compression,” in which materials are smoothly 

compressed without shock heating. Z’s ability to accomplish this was recognized 

only a few years ago. Isentropic compression experiments are now a major 

component of Z activities and are yielding important data for the stewardship 

program. In a similar manner, the Task Force anticipates that NIF will also open 

up new discoveries and new capabilities that are not yet anticipated. 
 Chapter 1. Scope, Study Approach 

and General Findings

____________________________________________________________________ - 8 -

Achieving ignition in 2010 is an important milestone, but not an end in itself. 

Nor is it a “pass-fail” event. 2010 is the earliest date to expect a reasonable 

chance of success from an attempt to achieve ignition. The NIF will provide 

unique understanding of key issues before ignition, and is expected to produce 

levels of performance well beyond initial ignition. This full spectrum of NIF 

performance will be important to both the Stockpile Stewardship Program and 

the Nation’s basic sciences efforts. The first ignition experiments will be 

followed by systematic exploration of the phase space for ignition and 

improvements in ignition capsule performance. Scientists expect to eventually 

be able, for the first time, to understand and control the behavior of plasmas in 

the ignition regime. This advance in knowledge will have profound impacts on 

support for the weapons program, where ignition-related phenomena are of 

critical importance. In short, the purpose of the NIF ignition program is not 

simply to demonstrate ignition, but to provide a critically important “scientific 

tool.” 

The program of work on NIF and other ICF facilities has been characterized 

as subdivided into “ignition” and “high energy density physics.” The latter is 

simple shorthand that refers to high energy density experiments in areas such as 

hydrodynamics, radiation, and materials properties that are driven by weapon 

issues explored at levels of energy density below ignition. This nomenclature is 

neither valid nor useful. It is not valid in the sense that there is a great deal of 

physics overlap between the ignition and high energy density physics programs; 

also, the field of high energy density physics, as formally defined, includes the 

ignition regime. It is “not useful” in the sense that making the distinction leaves 

the impression that the ignition program should be separate from weapons 

physics, when, in fact, the study of igniting plasmas is one of the most important 

areas in weapon science. The major benefit for the stewardship program of 

ignition will be the ability to control plasmas in the ignition regime. Hence, the 

ICF Program should lay out not just a program to demonstrate ignition, but also 

a program to apply it in the most expeditious manner to weapon issues 

associated with burning plasmas. The Ignition 2010 program should fit 

seamlessly into this longer-term program. As NIF matures, we can expect to see 

the advances supported by NIF proceed at an expanding pace. The Task Force 

strongly endorses a more unified, integrated approach to discussing the 

experimental programs planned for NIF and other ICF facilities. 
 Chapter 1. Scope, Study Approach 

and General Findings

____________________________________________________________________ - 9 -

1.4 GENERAL RECOMMENDATION

• Eliminate the artificial distinction between programs of experiments in HED 

for weapons physics and for ICF.

Figure 2: Task Force Findings and Assessment of Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: General Recommendation. 

As discussed above it is important this distinction be eliminated. This change 

emphasizes the unity of the science pursued and the importance of ignition to 

stockpile stewardship. Many technical activities in areas such as diagnostic 

development are common to the ignition and HED experimental plans and thus 

this change should also result in a more integrated and efficient program. 
 Chapter 2. Assessment of Proposed 

 Experimental Programs at NIF

___________________________________________________________________ - 10 -

2. ASSESSMENT OF PROPOSED EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAMS 

AT NIF 

2.1 FINDINGS

The Task Force findings and assessment of ignition and high energy density 

physics experiments are summarized in Figure 3. 

• Laser performance is necessarily a current central focus of bringing the NIF 

on line 

 – The first quad is running at better than the specified performance, and the 

major laser performance parameters, e.g., beam quality, beam pointing, 

diagnostic pointing, timing, etc., have been demonstrated 

 – Completion of the first bundle (8 beams) in 2005 will validate that the 

laser performance obtained from the first quad utilizing “first article” 

hardware can be achieved with production hardware, virtually completing 

the laser development. 

 – Bringing the remaining bundles up to the first cluster (48 beams) and the 

full complement of 192 beams is a complex matter of production and 

integration, rather than development. 

 – Learning to operate this facility is also a major task – it is unique and 

complex and its effective use will require extensive operating experience. 

• Optics durability and maintenance at full energy is an issue that impacts 

facility availability. 

Figure 3: Task Force Findings and Assessment of Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Laser Performance. 

The first four beams (quad) of the NIF facility have been performance-tested, 

including extensive single beam analysis. The NIF Project has demonstrated the 

performance specified in the Primary Criteria and Functional Requirements (on a 

per-beam basis), including the major laser performance parameters in the areas 

of beam quality, beam pointing, diagnostic pointing, and timing. 

The first quad was constructed from “first-article” hardware as an 

engineering prototype. Based on testing the first quad and value engineering 

studies that reviewed the various components for both function and 

manufacturability, procurements are underway for the first “production” 

hardware for the system. These production components will be utilized 

throughout the facility, eventually replacing the currently installed first-article 
 Chapter 2. Assessment of Proposed 

 Experimental Programs at NIF

___________________________________________________________________ - 11 -

hardware. The first bundle (8 beams), scheduled for completion in FY2005, will 

be assembled entirely from production hardware. Testing of this bundle is to 

validate that the laser performance obtained from the production hardware also 

meets the established requirements. Once this is accomplished, the development 

phase of the laser system will be essentially completed. The laser elements of the 

remaining modules are replicas. Challenges during this period are more akin to 

those encountered in a complex manufacturing process than to a technology 

development effort. Procurement management, quality assurance, and process 

control will be key to completing the build-out of the required line replaceable 

units. The project recognizes this change in its nature, and is evolving its 

management structure to match the nature of the work. 

Commissioning this major, new facility entails a remaining set of major 

challenges. Some of the challenges of most concern are associated with bringing 

the system to regular operation at full energy. The state of the NIF Project at 

project completion in 2008 as described in the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan 

is as follows: 

 All 192 beams be installed and acceptance tested; 

 96 beams operated simultaneously at approximately half-energy; 

 8 beams (1 bundle) operated at full energy (1.8 MJ 192 beam equivalent). 

As described in the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan, following project 

completion, commissioning and activation of the second set of 96 beams would 

be done as part of NIF operations. Ramp-up to full energy for all 192 beams is 

planned for FY2009-FY2010. Current planning calls for all 192 beams to be 

available for experiments starting in Q3FY2009. Initial ignition integration 

experiments at the 1MJ level are planned for FY2010. Full-energy (1.8MJ) ignition 

experiments are planned to commence in FY2011. 

With respect to optics durability, the key component or “fuse” for the laser 

system is the final focusing optics that deliver third-harmonic laser light to the 

center of the target chamber. The durability of these optics determines the 

number of experiments that can be performed at full energy for a given 

operations budget. 
 Chapter 2. Assessment of Proposed 

 Experimental Programs at NIF

___________________________________________________________________ - 12 -

• Major risks for the ignition and weapon physics program have been identified. 

The risk for achieving ignition in 2010 is high, but is expected to decline 

thereafter. 

• The national ICF community has performed effectively in generating an 

integrated national risk set for ignition. There is close agreement on the set 

of risks and general agreement on the mitigation approaches. 

• The current community process for risk assessment is similar to that of a Red 

Team but does not have the power and focus of a formal chartered Red Team. 

• There is a need for a detailed, documented national ignition plan that 

encompasses all program elements and facilities, and includes milestones, 

measures of effectiveness, and accountability. This plan needs to include a 

defined, time-phased set of milestones that drive risk areas to acceptable 

levels. 

• Evolution of the NIF should not preclude direct drive ignition experiments in 

the future. 

• Progress on weapon physics, including ignition, will be strongly dependent on 

advances in target fabrication and diagnostic technologies. 

Figure 4: Task Force Findings and Assessment of Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Risks and Plans. 

The Task Force is strongly in favor of sustaining the goal of achieving ignition 

by 2010. The proposed “fill-tube” approach, while high-risk, has the merit of 

allowing ignition experiments to be fielded as soon as possible. It is important 

that the program also maintain a variety of other options, such as diffusion fill 

targets, advanced target ablators, and direct drive. The risk for the 2010 ignition 

plan is currently high, but a properly designed and executed risk mitigation 

program can be expected to steadily reduce the risk. 

There has been a national ignition plan since 1997–98. The national ICF 

community has had a long tradition of national discussion of risks in physics 

issues associated with ignition, and this has continued over the past few years. 

More recently, the community has evaluated the new NIF fill-tube approach to 

ignition, and developed an initial national risk set. Consensus has been reached 

on the key areas of risk and the general approaches. Details are currently being 

worked out regarding which elements of the ICF Program will undertake the 

various development activities in the risk mitigation program. Clearly, much 

work remains to be done, but a good start has been made. It is important that 

this national approach to risk assessment and mitigation be formalized to include 

commitments from the ICF community leadership. 
 Chapter 2. Assessment of Proposed 

 Experimental Programs at NIF

___________________________________________________________________ - 13 -

While the internal review process within the ICF Program is similar to a Red 

Team, it does not have the full power and focus of a conventional Red Team. 

The fact that there is no formally chartered Red Team within this program has 

resulted in a less-than-fully focused process for risk assessment and mitigation. 

The Task Force applauds the current national efforts to generate a risk list. The 

panel believes that a formal Red Team activity would be highly beneficial. 

The NIF Activation and Early Use Plan represents a major achievement in 

that, for the first time, the nation has a plan to bring the facility on line coupled 

with an ignition plan and a plan to develop and build diagnostics and cryogenics 

– all consistent with the NNSA 5-year budget plan. Now that this plan has been 

developed and reviewed, the next step is to develop the plan in detail. Of key 

importance is identifying the roles to be played by each NNSA site and each 

facility. It is essential that each participant in the program be given clearly 

defined tasks with milestones and clear measures of accountability. 

The national ICF Program has pursued both direct drive fusion and indirect 

drive fusion since its inception (Volume II, Appendix E). The physics 

requirements for indirect drive were validated in the mid-late 1990s as part of the 

validation of NIF. Since that time, the physics requirements for direct drive have 

also been examined and are being finalized and validated. 

NIF will be brought on line with the beams in the indirect drive position 

(Volume II, Appendix E). However, there are versions of direct drive ignition 

that might be implemented in this beam configuration. While the program 

should include alternatives to reposition the NIF beams to direct drive positions 

if necessary, the needed progress in direct drive technologies is being pursued at 

other ICF facilities. 

Target fabrication advances will have a strong impact on the programmatic 

results obtainable on NIF. In certain cases, the quality and ability to characterize 

specified perturbations and other features of these targets will directly impact the 

degree to which NIF experiments can address specific weapon issues. In other 

cases, such as ignition, certain demanding specifications are essential to success 

in the planned experiment. Additional investment in this area is needed and is 

likely to have a significant payoff. 

Additional effort in developing advanced diagnostics would provide 

significant benefit. Experience has shown that developing advanced diagnostic 

techniques is likely to lead to new insights. In this program, advanced 

diagnostics have been central to technical progress, and their continuing 

development is an area where the involvement of the broader community, 

including universities, should be particularly effective. 
 Chapter 2. Assessment of Proposed 

 Experimental Programs at NIF

___________________________________________________________________ - 14 -

• Surprises are to be expected, and the program should be prepared to 

make timely adjustments to priorities and schedules. 

• Effective use of NIF’s potential will demand high flexibility and the 

freedom to redirect resources so as to bring the facility to full power and 

fully exploit the outcomes of experiments. 

• The technical program is highly challenging and would benefit from peer 

review. 

• An extensive set of experiments on Nike, Trident, Omega, Z, and NIF are 

required to support the ignition goal. Currently planned facility time, 

particularly at OMEGA, is not sufficient to meet this need. 

Figure 5: Task Force Findings and Assessment of Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Management Issues. 

In a technically challenging program, such as the high energy density physics 

program, surprises are inevitable. Areas where surprises may be expected 

include laser performance and NIF reliability at full power, beam smoothing 

(including laser-plasma interaction phenomena), capsule physics (particularly 

achievable convergence ratios), and target fabrication. In fact, the Task Force 

believes the limited ability to address previously unforeseen problems is the 

greatest risk to the Ignition 2010 campaign. One of the strengths of the ICF 

Program has been its ability to deal with unforeseen issues. By focusing on a 

well planned and executed risk mitigation program and keeping alternatives 

open, the ICF Program should be able to overcome the challenges, both known 

and unknown, that lie on the path to ignition. This will take time and is 

consistent with the Task Force’s belief that the risk for ignition in 2010 is high but 

declines with risk mitigation. 

The Task Force believes that NNSA and the Congress must provide the ICF 

Program with the flexibility to manage through the remaining uncertainties that 

are inevitable with a first time endeavor of this magnitude. For example, 

artificially partitioning the program between “ignition” and “weapons physics” 

should be avoided, given the common activities shared by both. 

The national ICF Program has made impressive progress but remains a 

technically challenging activity. Careful, ongoing peer-review of programs is of 

continuing great value. This program needs to institute a formal peer review 

process. Peer review by a standing external advisory committee would serve 

several goals: (i) it will provide needed peer review and external comment on 

key technical issues; (ii) it could offer innovative suggestions regarding 

experiments and diagnostics; (iii) it will help the program make key decisions, 
 Chapter 2. Assessment of Proposed 

 Experimental Programs at NIF

___________________________________________________________________ - 15 -

e.g., down selection of target type for indirect drive, indirect-versus-direct drive, 

priorities on certain weapon physics experiments; and (iv) it will provide an 

effective, motivating catalyst for helping the various partners in the program to 

work together. 

The NIF ignition program includes a number of experiments to be carried out 

at OMEGA, Z, and other national facilities. Experimental time at NIF will be in 

high demand, and the Task Force thus applauds this approach and endorses the 

plan to perform risk reduction and other experiments on facilities besides NIF 

whenever possible. The Task Force notes that not all the machine time available 

on these other facilities is currently in the NNSA budget. 

2.2 RECOMMENDATIONS

The Task Force recommendations on ignition and high energy density 

physics experiments are summarized in Figures 6-7. 

• Options for earlier availability (2009 timeframe) of increased energy for 

experiments at the NIF should be developed and considered. 

Figure 6: Task Force Recommendations on Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Laser Performance. 

The Task Force felt that full energy availability in the 2009–2010 timeframe 

would be important to mitigating risk for the weapon physics program at NIF, 

especially for experiments approaching, and at, the ignition level. As an 

example, initial ignition capsule physics experiments will be done with 

80 percent-scale targets as a result of the limited initial available energy. The 

Task Force was presented with arguments that results from these experiments 

could be in the full-scale ignition target campaign. Earlier availability of full 

energy would reduce the need to go through this scaling process and, thus, 

decrease overall risk to the ignition program. 

Further, fully stressing the optics will occur only with repeated exposures to 

full power. It would be highly desirable to mitigate the risks associated with 

optics durability earlier. However, achieving earlier full power operation would 

require a significant change in program directions and would likely require 

additional funding.
 Chapter 2. Assessment of Proposed 

 Experimental Programs at NIF

___________________________________________________________________ - 16 -

• A formal “Red Team” should be chartered for both ignition and weapon 

physics activities. 

• A detailed national plan for ignition should be produced; the plan should 

include milestones, measures of effectiveness, and accountability. 

• The program needs to provide a detailed risk mitigation plan with 

milestone dates and measures of merit that drive all areas to no worse 

than “moderate” and most to “low.” 

• Enhanced effort should be applied to development of new diagnostic and 

target fabrication techniques. 

Figure 7: Task Force Recommendations on Ignition/HED Experiments: Risks and Plans. 

A formal Red Team process should be put in place. The Red Team should 

include members from both the ICF Program and experts outside the program to 

provide meaningful feedback. It is particularly important to seek university 

involvement in the Red Team. The Red Team process should be formalized and 

continue on an ongoing basis. 

As noted, an ignition plan has existed in various forms since 1997–98. While 

the Task Force recognizes that the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan is still in its 

early stages — and applauds the effort so far — taking the next step is critical: to 

define, in detail, and reach agreement on all user responsibilities and roles. DOE 

should assure that all site responsibilities are made clear, and that a management 

approach that ensures each site is supported and held accountable for its 

assigned tasks is developed. Indirect drive provides the highest probability of 

achieving ignition at the earliest date. Still it is important that direct drive not be 

precluded as a future capability in the NIF. 

A risk mitigation plan is essential to the success of this program. A 

particularly significant risk for the FY2010 ignition milestone is the lack of 

routine, full-energy operation until the end of CY2010. Enhanced attention and 

resources should be devoted to target fabrication. This encompasses both 

development of new materials and techniques, as well as devotion of resources 

to characterization of new and existing targets. Additional effort should also be 

devoted to new diagnostic development. All plans should have clear, identifiable 

sections devoted to target fabrication and diagnostics to ensure that progress in 

these areas may be closely tracked. 
 Chapter 2. Assessment of Proposed 

 Experimental Programs at NIF

___________________________________________________________________ - 17 -

• The Program should be given sufficient flexibility to move resources 

between the ignition and weapon physics areas, as there are numerous 

examples where common activities benefit both. 

• It is essential that adequate contingency in NIF shot shifts and other key 

areas be maintained, as surprises will occur. 

• An external national advisory committee should be established. 

• Ensure facility time at all ICF Program facilities is adequate to support the 

milestones outlined in the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan. 

Figure 8: Task Force Recommendations on Ignition/ 

HED Experiments: Management Issues. 

Currently the program has some flexibility to move resources between 

ignition and weapons physics activities. This flexibility needs to be maintained 

and enhanced. 

The significant — and appropriate — contingency in the NIF shot budget in 

the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan should be maintained. 

The Task Force recommends that NNSA look into various means for 

establishing a national advisory committee. Advisory committees for Inertial 

Fusion have existed in the past, and that they have been vital to validating 

program priorities and setting technical direction. NIF is a national facility, and, 

as such, the Task Force sees the need for outside guidance on experiments, and 

other matters related to the facility. 

The experimental work required at major facilities, particularly OMEGA and 

Z, to support the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan was presented to the Task 

Force. There are resource shortfalls in funding experimental time, particularly at 

OMEGA, and the Task Force urges NNSA to remedy these shortfalls as soon as 

possible.
 Chapter3. Balance and Priority of Activities

___________________________________________________________________ - 18 -

3. BALANCE AND PRIORITY OF ACTIVITIES

3.1 FINDINGS

• Ignition on NIF is a “breakthrough” capability. With ignition, stockpile 

stewardship can begin to probe weapon phenomena associated with burn 

and thus address the most important question in weapon physics. 

• There is extensive collaboration amongst the ICF laboratories on realizing 

the ignition milestone. There is less collaboration on weapon physics 

activities outside ignition. 

• While NIF is not a part of current plans for meeting the first production 

unit milestone in the life extension programs, NIF will add a new level of 

confidence to ongoing assessment activities. 

• The Weapon Project Officer Groups (POG’s) have not been provided 

continuing education regarding NIF and its role in the SSP. 

• A portion of the experimental facility time at NIF will be devoted to 

external users. 

Figure 9: Task Force Findings on ICF Program Balance and Priorities. 

One of the most important questions in weapons physics is whether the 

phenomena involved in ignition and burn are properly modeled in the 

simulation codes. Ignition on NIF will provide a breakthrough capability, and it 

is almost certain that, once achieved, ignition will be used to perform weapons 

physics tests and experiments that have not yet been contemplated — in much 

the same way we now rely heavily on isentropic compression for materials work 

on Z. 

There has been a long-standing and extensive collaboration between the ICF 

laboratories in the area of ignition, as evidenced by the integrated national list of 

risks to the NIF fill-tube ignition scheme presented to the Task Force. There is 

also collaboration in weapons physics, but to a lesser extent than in the area of 

ignition. 

A methodology known as Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties 

(QMU) has been developed over the past several years at the national 

laboratories. A major goal of this methodology is to quantify the uncertainty and 

performance margin associated with specific weapon issues. QMU can and 

should be used to prioritize the ICF weapon physics program at the laboratories, 

with higher priority placed on issues having larger impacts on performance 
 Chapter3. Balance and Priority of Activities

___________________________________________________________________ - 19 -

margin. The Task Force is aware that the JASONs are conducting a separate 

review of QMU. It is important that, as QMU and the analysis of weapon 

uncertainties are improved, this knowledge be fed back into the program of 

experiments at NIF and other facilities. The experiments on NIF, Z, and the 

other national facilities should be directed to address the issues having greatest 

impact on resolving uncertainties in weapons performance. 

The Task Force heard from representatives from the W76 and W80 Project 

Officer Groups (POGs). The life extension activities are carefully focused and 

defined so as not to depend on NIF and other advanced capabilities within the 

SSP. However, history has shown that issues are likely to arise both during and 

after these refurbishments that require the application of advanced capabilities, 

such as NIF. It is not clear that current planning for W76 and W80 assessment 

and certification leverages all of the NIF capabilities that will be available. 

The U.S. nuclear stockpile will doubtless be transformed over the next 10-30 

years. While U.S. policy in this area is still evolving, it is clear that leading-edge 

scientific capabilities, such as NIF, will be critical to address the technical issues 

that arise, validate our simulation codes in new areas, and recruit the top talent 

needed for the Stockpile Stewardship Program. Overall, a healthy Stockpile 

Stewardship Program is necessary for the maintenance of a safe, secure, and 

reliable stockpile. 

It was clear that the POGs were not fully aware of the NIF Activation and 

Early Use Plan. In fact, in some cases they had not been briefed in several years, 

a situation that must be remedied. Action should be taken to ensure that the 

POGs are aware of the impact of NIF and other facilities on the assessment and 

certification process. 

The execution of experiments at NIF by university and other external users 

will benefit the stewardship program, DoD, and the broader U.S. scientific 

community. The current plan calls for 15% of NIF experiments to be allocated to 

external users, and there is no need to modify this allocation at this time. The NIF 

Director will monitor this allocation on an ongoing basis. 
 Chapter3. Balance and Priority of Activities

___________________________________________________________________ - 20 -

3.2 RECOMMENDATIONS

• Demonstration of ignition on the current schedule should remain the 

highest priority for NIF experiments. 

• Ensure the POG’s are routinely engaged in NIF progress and plans and 

their impact on assessment and certification activities. 

Figure 10: Task Force Recommendations on ICF Program Balance and Priorities. 

Laboratory ignition experiments are essential to fully addressing weapons 

issues related to thermonuclear burn. Weapon questions related to 

thermonuclear burn are of overriding importance to the Stockpile Stewardship 

Program and, thus, ignition should be demonstrated as soon as feasible. 

Experiments supporting the 2010 goal should be held at the highest priority. 

The POGs should be briefed regularly on the NIF Activation and Early Use 

Plan to ensure that the NIF weapons physics activities, which are geared toward 

quantifying margins, support the longer-term needs of the Life Extension 

Programs and Stockpile Stewardship. 
 Chapter4. Stakeholder Integration

___________________________________________________________________ - 21 -

4. STAKEHOLDER INTEGRATION

4.1 FINDINGS

• The taxonomy of weapon physics needs as it relates to the various 

facilities should be further developed on a continuing basis, so the 

relevance of all HED facilities at any given time is clearly understood and 

optimized. 

• The wider HED community needs to be more involved in NIF diagnostics. 

• A cadre of machine scientists is needed to help experimentalists leverage 

NIF. 

• There is a need to transition from the intense central management 

required to build the national facility to a collaborative approach 

appropriate for implementing an integrated national program. 

Figure 11: Task Force Findings on Stakeholder Integration. 

LLNL and LANL have carefully considered the various facilities in the ICF 

Program as they have gone about choosing where experiments on specific 

weapon issues should be conducted. This analysis needs to be done on a 

continuing basis, since the relevance of the various facilities will change as new 

discoveries are made. While the current process is adequate, a more formal 

national process would ensure that the taxonomy is maintained in a complete 

and up-to-date state. This process should be extended to incorporate not only 

weapons science, but also astrophysics, geophysics, and ignition activities across 

all HED areas of endeavor to provide a truly integrated national experimental 

program at the major ICF Program facilities. 

The Task Force heard from several laboratories that national participation in 

NIF could be improved. Diagnostics was cited as an example. Communication 

was observed to be sometimes lacking, i.e., the Task Force heard quite different 

accounts from different laboratories describing the same program activities. 

Communication among the sites needs to be improved. 

It was pointed out that NIF is of such complexity that making effective use of 

the facility will require detailed attention to, for example, laser pulse shapes, 

energies, beam-to-beam balance, and other facility attributes required to field 

effective experiments. These must be factored into the experimental design from 

the outset. Experiments on NIF are so precious that every effort should be made 

to optimize the capability of the machine and the design of the experiment. It is 

important that the cadre of machine scientists be involved in the design of the 
 Chapter4. Stakeholder Integration

___________________________________________________________________ - 22 -

experiments from inception. This has been accomplished on other large facilities 

such as particle accelerators around the U.S. and the world. 

The NIF Project at LLNL is clearly being managed with high competency. It 

is a soundly executed project, where the entire scope is contained within the 

LLNL NIF Directorate. However, the program to use NIF will be substantially 

different, in that significant responsibilities will be held and key intellectual 

contributions should be made by talent across the HEDP community. As the 

project to stand-up the NIF is completed, a more collaborative and nationally 

based management structure needs to be installed to foster the necessary 

collaborations. This is a necessary step for the most effective execution of the 

NIF Activation and Early Use Plan. 

A successful program of work on NIF — particularly on ignition — will 

require the talents of all the relevant national facilities and programs. This was 

proven in the past, as described in presentations to the Task Force, when a 

number of key issues that arose in the mid-1990s related to the proof-of-principle 

for indirect drive ignition were solved via collaborations between LLNL and 

LANL. Other problems will arise, the solutions to which will benefit from the 

insights of other program participants. 

4.2 RECOMMENDATIONS

• A formal process is needed to ensure optimum use of HED facilities for the 

range of needs, e.g., weapons physics, astrophysics, and very high energy 

density laboratory plasmas. 

• A formal process is needed by which ICF program sites participate in the 

continuous updating of the NIF Activation and Early Use Plan. 

• National participation in NIF needs to be improved. An example is 

diagnostics, where a process to ensure broader participation should be 

implemented. 

• Scientists skilled in NIF technology should be readily available to the user 

community. This should be accounted for in personnel planning and 

recruiting. 

• Management of the national user program at NIF should rise to the same 

level of visibility and influence as that accorded to the NIF Project. 

• Two users groups need to be formed. One to coordinate the most 

effective use of the national facility. The other composed of the directors 

of the relevant laboratories, to provide the needed coordination and 

commitment to the most effective path to ignition and use of HEDP 

facilities leading to and beyond ignition. 

Figure 12: Task Force Recommendations on Stakeholder Integration. 
 Chapter4. Stakeholder Integration

___________________________________________________________________ - 23 -

With respect to the NIF Early Use Plan, the informal process by which LLNL 

and LANL allocated their experimental time to various facilities was workable. 

However, some of the other laboratories, which have highly relevant technical 

expertise, were not yet fully integrated into ongoing discussions. It is important 

that a formal process be instituted to ensure that experiments are integrated and 

optimally matched to the capabilities of the various facilities. It is especially 

important for HEDP community experiments that could be done at locations 

other than NIF be performed at those other locations. It is also important that 

HEDP community researchers be trained on other facilities, such as OMEGA, 

before they come to NIF since the scale and size of NIF make such experience an 

important prerequisite for work at the NIF. 

Planning for diagnostics, cryogenics, and other experimental technologies at 

NIF is where decisions will be made regarding the priorities for the NIF 

experimental program. Thus, it is essential that there be a regular process by a 

users group so that stakeholders in NIF provide input regarding these activities. 

Still, the NIF Director must ultimately make the final decisions in this area. 

National participation in NIF should be enhanced via the assignment of 

clearly defined responsibilities to those in the program. For the case of 

diagnostics, the process to ensure broader participation should include, where 

feasible, input from the university community, since important insights and 

novel ideas are very likely to be contributed. 

LLNL needs to ensure that an appropriate core team of laser scientists 

remains associated with NIF during the operational phase. In soliciting 

university partnerships for the program, consideration should be given to the 

need to have laser scientists trained in operations of large-scale laser facilities. 

NIF is fundamentally different from the other facilities in the ICF Program 

both in its scale and the fact that it was explicitly recognized as a major national 

scientific facility from the outset. The assembly of an integrated national plan to 

use NIF will be critical to its success. NNSA and the laboratories have 

committed to operating NIF in a manner truly befitting a national facility. It is 

now time to make this vision a reality. 

A user group that coordinates NIF activities within the user community is an 

important step towards this goal. The success of the broader program in high 

energy density physics will require significant commitments from all partners in 

the ICF Program. A user group at the laboratory director level should be formed 

to ensure all participants are actively engaged in planning and meeting their 

commitments. 
 Chapter4. Stakeholder Integration

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 Appendix A. Terms of Reference

___________________________________________________________________ - 25 -

APPENDIX A. TERMS OF REFERENCE
 Appendix A. Terms of Reference

___________________________________________________________________ - 26 -

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 Appendix B. Task Force Membership

___________________________________________________________________ - 27 -

APPENDIX B. TASK FORCE MEMBERSHIP

This is the report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on the 

Employment of the National Ignition Facility. Figure 13 lists the members of the 

Task Force and support personnel from the various organizations who 

participated on the Task Force. The Task Force received briefings from a broad 

variety of government organizations, including the National Nuclear Security 

Administration, all of the Department of Energy Weapons Laboratories, and all 

other elements of the Stockpile Stewardship Program. 

Chairman: 

Gen Larry Welch, USAF (Ret) .............Institute for Defense Analyses 

Members: 

Dr. John Foster.......................................Technology Strategies and Alliances 

Dr. Hermann Grunder..........................Argonne National Laboratory 

Dr. David Hammer...............................Cornell University 

Dr. Ted Hardebeck................................Science Applications International 

Corporation 

Dr. Bill Press...........................................Los Alamos National Laboratory 

Dr. Rich Wagner....................................Los Alamos National Laboratory 

Executive Secretary: 

Dr. Christopher Keane .........................National Nuclear Security Administration 

Defense Science Board: 

Lt Col Dave Robertson, USAF.............Defense Science Board 

Government Advisers: 

Dr. Richard Bleach ................................OUSD/AT&L 

Dr. Jill Dahlburg....................................Naval Research Laboratory 

Ms. Susan Stoner ...................................OSD/AT&L 

Support Staff: 

Ms. Julie Evans ......................................Strategic Analysis, Inc. 

Mrs. Grace Johnson...............................Strategic Analysis, Inc. 

Dr. Adrian Smith...................................Directed Technologies, Inc. 

Figure 13: Task Force Membership 
 Appendix B. Task Force Membership

___________________________________________________________________ - 28 -

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 Appendix C. Acronyms

___________________________________________________________________ - 29 -

APPENDIX C. ACRONYMS

HED High Energy Density 

HEDP High-Energy-Density Physics 

 

ICF Inertial Confinement Fusion 

 

LANL Los Alamos National Laboratory 

LLNL Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 

 

MJ Megajoules 

 

NIF National Ignition Facility 

NNSA National Nuclear Security Administration 

NRL Naval Research Laboratory 

 

POGs Project Officer Groups 

 

QMU Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties 

 

SNL Sandia National Laboratories 

SSP Stockpile Stewardship Program 
 Appendix C. Acronyms

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