Beyond Traffic  Draft  Table of Contents ii

Table of Contents

Letter to the Reader iii

Introduction 1

Trends 8

How We Move 10

How We Move Things 46

How We Move Better 83

How We Adapt 115

How We Align Decisions and Dollars 148

System Implications 188

Highways and Motor Vehicles 197

Transit 212

Pedestrians and Bicycles 225

Aviation 232

Intercity Rail 245

Marine 256

Pipelines 264

Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times 272
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Letter to the Reader iii

Letter to the Reader

Transportation is really a simple idea. We want to move ourselves 

or our things from one place to another efficiently, reliably and 

safely. We, as users of the transportation system, think little of the 

untold intricacies that converge so we can get to work, take 

children to their activities or enjoy a cross country trip. There is 

the hardscape—the roads, runways, and railways. There are the 

vehicles in which we move. There are the vehicle operators and 

fellow travelers with whom we share the highway, the sky or the 

railroad tracks. There are the maps we use to chart our course. If 

any one of these elements fail, we may reach our destination but 

only after many hours have been lost. We may not get there at all. 

Beyond throughput, transportation is and perhaps always has been an organizing element of our 

society. Many road networks have been built upon foot worn paths of our forbearers. Along these 

paths grew towns, and some of those towns grew into cities. As new forms of transportation grew 

—from the horse and buggy, to the bicycle, to the locomotive, to the automobile—it became

necessary to smooth those paths and, more recently, pave them or lay rails upon them. 

Transportation has both gotten us places and made places. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Letter to the Reader iv

As we have evolved and understood more about our transportation system, we know it to be an 

interdependent system of systems that shapes and is shaped by all it touches. Clogged highways 

are not per se the product of poor design. Sometimes they choke with unanticipated traffic flows 

brought about by unforeseen zoning and land use decisions, regional population growth or 

deferred maintenance caused by inadequate budgets or perhaps misplaced priorities. Congestion is 

not limited to roads. A Midwestern farmer may have harvested several tons of grain to ship by rail 

only to find limited space on freight trains due to growing competition from commodities such as 

energy products. Even our commercial airspace is experiencing congestion around major hub 

airports. As we grow, and as our economy grows, the challenge of moving will become even more 

complicated. If we could anticipate today what will likely slow or stop our national progress, we 

could plan an effective response, engage in robust debate and settle on a course of action. 

Unfortunately, we have too often misstated the problem as simply one of funding when it may be 

one of both resources and design.

Can we imagine a future in which traffic jams decline? Yes. How do we get beyond traffic? 

Essentially, three strategies need to be employed—all of which demand increased funding and 

new, more adaptive policymaking at the federal, state and local levels. First, we have to take better 

care of our legacy transportation systems. We cannot cross bridges that have fallen apart or 

connect commerce to ports in disrepair. Second, we must build what is new and necessary, taking 

into account changes in living patterns and where products will move to and from. Third, we must 

use technologies and better design approaches that will allow us to maximize the use of our old 

and new transportation assets. Doing so may involve adapting new innovations in vehicle safety 

and automation, improving federal, state, and local coordination, and adopting best practices in 

road design. 

These strategies are at variance with our current posture. The U.S. transportation system is still 

proceeding under a 20th century model in which our policies, practices, and programs are 

presumed to be sufficient, as are the resources devoted to them. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Letter to the Reader v

Over the past six years, the United States government has passed 32 short-term measures to keep 

its surface transportation system afloat. Funding uncertainty has undermined our ability to 

modernize our air traffic control system. Diffuse decision-making mechanisms at the state and 

local level have hampered our ability to address critical freight and trade corridors. And our 

programs and policies have not been reformed to tackle the challenges of tomorrow. The 

combination of these forces—inconsistent, unreliable funding, and static policies in an era of rapid 

change—has left our transportation infrastructure in an increasingly deteriorated and fragile 

state. It has left the United States on the precipice of losing its historical advantage in moving 

people and things faster, safer, and more reliably than any other nation in the world. 

It is important to note that Beyond Traffic is not an action plan and is not intended to be. It is a 

survey of where we are and where current trends may take us if left unaddressed. The federal 

government alone cannot achieve resolution of all of the issues and concerns the future will bring; 

much decisionmaking belongs to other stakeholders, including state and local governments and 

the private sector. Any comprehensive action plan would require consultation and coordinated 

execution by all of these participants. 

Beyond Traffic is intended to open a national dialogue about what our country really needs and 

why we need it. It is a draft survey of major forces impacting transportation and a discussion of 

potential solutions that can be adopted to address those forces. We hope it prompts a longoverdue national conversation. We also hope it generates a lot of thoughtful feedback to inform 

the final version. Our hope is to release a final product later in 2015. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Letter to the Reader vi

This survey is not the first effort to capture current and future trends in transportation. 

Secretaries William Coleman, Sam Skinner and Rodney Slater each published major reports in the 

past to contribute to the national dialogue. Each of these efforts has involved dedicated teams 

within the U.S. Department of Transportation, and Beyond Traffic is no exception. Undersecretary 

of Policy Peter Rogoff and his team in the Office of Policy, as well as the Volpe Center led by Robert

Johns, have been deeply vested in overseeing the development of this product. 

In perhaps the most definitive of these surveys, Secretary Coleman, in the 1977 study entitled 

“National Transportation: Trends and Choices (to the year 2000)” captured the sentiments that 

have guided our efforts in this work:

“National Transportation: Trends and Choices” provides a starting point for that much needed 

public debate. It is an agenda of national transportation issues and alternative solutions that, from 

the perspective of the Department of Transportation, appear to have merit. It is not intended as a 

plan of action, although it encompasses programs and plans that already may have the force of law 

at various levels of Government. It is intended to be a prospectus of what is possible, practicable, 

and in the public service.

I, therefore, ask that you, the reader, accept this document in the spirit in which it was prepared—

as a basis upon which we can all build together. Your comments and criticisms are welcome—

indeed your constructive advice is essential to our task of developing truly responsible 

transportation planning for the future.

Anthony Foxx

U.S. Secretary of Transportation
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Introduction 1

Introduction
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Introduction 2

Foreword

In the enabling legislation that gave rise to the U.S. Department of Transportation, the Secretary 

of Transportation is vested with the responsibility to report on current and future conditions of 

our transportation system. With the nation’s transportation system experiencing repeated trauma 

due to inaction in the public sphere, such a report could not come at a more crucial time.

Beyond Traffic: Trends and Choices 2045 has been developed over the course of a year. U.S. DOT 

assembled a team of internal and external experts to conduct a comprehensive examination of our 

nation’s transportation system. This team shared key findings and solicited feedback in six public 

webinar sessions that drew 1,300 participants. These participants included engineers, researchers, 

transportation planners, pilots, truck drivers, transit operators, safety advocates and disability 

rights advocates, among others. 

This document is a draft. Our objective in publishing this draft is to widen the scope of public 

feedback and discourse. This report is not final, and we anticipate that it will benefit from 

substantial public feedback. We invite you to read this work and share your feedback at 

www.dot.gov/beyondtraffic.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Introduction 3

Introduction: Summary in Brief

In the race to build world-class transportation, America once set the pace. We used to have a big 

lead. 

In the 19th century, we built the Erie Canal and Transcontinental Railroad. In the last century, we 

took over building the Panama Canal, completed the Interstate Highway System, and set the world 

standard in freight transport and aviation.

But our lead has slipped away. We are behind. Way behind.

The quality of our roads, for example, is no longer rated No. 1. 

We’re No. 16. 

And it is not just that our infrastructure is showing its age—our country, in many ways, has 

outgrown it. If you drive a car, you now spend, on average, the equivalent of five vacation days 

every year sitting in traffic. If you drive a truck, highway congestion has made you an expert at 

navigating bumpy side roads—and you are not alone. Every year, trucks are losing $27 billion on 

wasted time and fuel.

In this report, we not only analyzed the condition and performance of our transportation system 

today, but forecasted how it will look and perform 30 years from now if we fail to develop a new 

game plan.

Beyond Traffic reveals that, if we don’t change, in 2045, the transportation system that powered 

our rise as a nation will instead slow us down. Transit systems will be so backed up that riders will 

wonder not just when they will get to work, but if they will get there at all. At the airports, and on 

the highway, every day will be like Thanksgiving is today.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Introduction 4

This is not a picture of our inevitable future. It is the objective truth—and one we hope inspires 

Americans to, in a way, launch a comeback. We encourage our readers to learn about the challenges 

ahead, and to think of them as opportunities. The potential is there, Beyond Traffic tells us, to 

make a transportation system as amazing, frankly, as the stark scenario above is troubling—a 

system that is safer, more efficient, more sustainable, and more satisfying—one that successfully 

connects all Americans to the 21st century economy. 

Beyond Traffic doesn’t prescribe a course of action or advocate for any specific solution. It doesn’t 

provide a blueprint.

Our purpose in producing this report was to analyze the latest data and trends shaping 

transportation so we could objectively frame critical policy choices that need to be made. Trends 

and choices such as:

 How will we move? How will we build a transportation system to accommodate a growing 

population and changing travel patterns? 

o America’s population will grow by 70 million by 2045. 

o By 2050, emerging megaregions could absorb 75 percent of the U.S. population; rural 

populations are expected to continue declining.

o Population growth will be greatest in the South and West; existing infrastructure 

might not be able to accommodate it.

o It is possible that Americans, particularly millennials, will continue reducing trips by 

car in favor of more trips by transit and intercity passenger rail.

o In 2045 there will be nearly twice as many older Americans—thus, more people 

needing quality transit connections to medical and other services.

 How will we move things? And reduce freight chokepoints that drive up the cost of owning a 

business? 

o By 2045, freight volume will increase 45 percent.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Introduction 5

o Online shopping is driving up demand for small package home delivery, which could 

soon substitute for many household shopping trips.

o Airline mergers and the consolidation of hubs may result in increased air traffic 

congestion.

o International trade balances, due in part to low U.S. energy costs, could shift from 

imports toward exports, but overall globalization will increase both, straining ports 

and border crossings.

o Strong domestic energy production may enable the U.S. to become a natural gas net 

exporter by 2020, but pipeline capacity may hamper growth and lead to greater 

movement of oil by rail.

 How will we move better? And knock down barriers to new technologies that promise to 

make travel safer and more convenient? 

o Technological changes and innovation may transform vehicles, infrastructure, 

logistics, and the delivery of transportation services to promote efficiency and safety.

o New sources of travel data have the potential to improve travelers’ experience, 

support more efficient management of transportation systems, and enhance 

investment decisions.

o Automation and robotics will affect all modes of transportation, improving 

infrastructure maintenance and travel safety, and enabling the mainstream use of 

autonomous vehicles.

 How will we adapt? And make our infrastructure more resilient to events like Hurricane 

Sandy? 

o The effects of climate change will include global mean sea level rise, temperature 

increases, and more frequent and intense storm events, all of which will impact 

highways, bridges, public transportation, coastal ports and waterways.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Introduction 6

 How will we align decisions and dollars, and invest the trillions of dollars our transportation 

system needs in the smartest way possible? 

o Public revenues to support transportation are not keeping up with the rising costs of

maintenance and capacity expansion.

o Sixty-five percent of our roads are rated in less than good condition; a quarter of our 

bridges need significant repair; 45 percent of Americans lack access to transit.

o The federal gas tax is no longer enough to address our transportation needs.

o Overall financing uncertainty, shortfalls in the Highway Trust Fund, and the absence 

of reliable federal funding for rail, marine highways, and ports have created a need for 

new financing mechanisms.

Beyond Traffic does not close the book on these questions. It opens the book wider, giving all of us 

more and better data with which to answer them.

Our hope is, at the end of the day, Beyond Traffic provides Americans with a common basis of fact 

for a larger national discussion about the future of transportation. 

It’s a discussion we need to have. After all, since Lewis and Clark blazed a trail to the Pacific and 

Lincoln linked our country with a railroad, transportation has been a national effort. No matter 

what changes in the next 30 years, it will continue to be one.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Introduction 7

Report Organization

This report is structured in three parts.

The first part discusses the major trends shaping our changing transportation system. These 

include both trends originating from the transportation sector, such as improvements in freight 

logistics, and external trends impacting the transportation sector, such as population growth and 

climate change.

The second part discusses the implications of these trends for each mode of transportation: 

highways, transit, pedestrian and bicycle, aviation, intercity and freight rail, maritime and pipeline.

The third part presents a description of a baseline future scenario—a future that may emerge from 

the trends analyzed previously. It concludes with a discussion of policy options based on the 

implications of these trends.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends 8

Trends

We can start the discussion by examining some of the most important 

trends that will shape our future.

This report describes five major trends:

How We Move

This section describes demographic, economic, geographic, and cultural trends affecting 

everyday travel. The focus is on the most common form of travel for most Americans: shortdistance trips by surface transportation. 

How We Move Things

This section describes emerging challenges and opportunities in the freight sector. It 

discusses how changes in the population, economy, and technology are affecting the 

movement of cargo and energy.

How We Move Better

In this section, discussion focuses on how technological advances, many of which have 

originated outside of the transportation sector and are now ready for implementation 

within it, are affecting and will affect our transportation system.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends 9

How We Adapt

This section describes how the transportation system is contributing to, and may be 

impacted by, climate change. It discusses how the transportation sector is finding ways to 

limit greenhouse-gas emissions, as well as the challenges of developing a resilient 

transportation system that can withstand the projected impacts of climate change, today 

and in the future.

How We Align Decisions and Dollars

This section explains the evolving role of government in planning, building, managing, and 

regulating the transportation system. It describes the financial challenges many 

governments are facing and discusses how the role of government and the way 

transportation is funded may change. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 10

How We Move
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 11
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 12

Our transportation system connects us to our work, our homes, and our friends and families. We 

all have different needs, and different values, that we consider as we make transportation 

decisions—but we all value the connections that our transportation system provides.

As our population grows and changes, our needs and preferences will also change. In fact, we are 

already changing how we travel. For instance, the number of miles that we drive each year is no 

longer increasing—reversing a decades-old trend. Many young Americans are choosing not to own 

cars—some do not even seek driver’s licenses. Our growing population will necessarily lead to 

increasing demand for travel overall, but it is conceivable that increasing congestion make travel so 

inconvenient that many individuals will find ways to travel less. 

This chapter examines some of the most important demographic and trends in everyday personal 

travel that will shape our transportation network by 2045.

Demographics: Increasing Population

Over the past 30 years the American population has 

increased 35 percent—from 230 million to 320 million. 

As our nation grows, so does our demand for travel. 

Today there are more people on the roads and in our 

airports and rail stations than ever before. 

Unfortunately, the capacity of our transportation 

system has not kept up with our requirements. Many 

roads and airports cannot accommodate the growing 

demand for travel, leading to record levels of congestion 

on our roads and frequent delays across our aviation 

system. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 13

By 2045 our population is expected to increase by nearly 70 million. That is a slower growth rate 

than previous decades, but it still means we will add more than the current population of New 

York, Florida, and Texas, combined. Our growing population will lead to increasing overall demand 

for travel even as increasing congestion could make travel so inconvenient that many individuals 

will seek to travel less.

How will we accommodate 70 million more people and growing amounts of freight—with an aging 

transportation system that is already strained for capacity? Meeting the needs of the next 

generation of travelers requires us to make smart choices 

today. 

More Cars, Fewer Miles

Over the past 50 years, as our suburbs have grown, we have 

depended more and more on cars. But our travel patterns 

are shifting. Americans are driving less. Per capita vehicle 

miles traveled, a measure of how much people drive, began 

declining in 2006 and has not increased, even as the 

economy has recovered from the Great Recession. 

Despite this trend, traffic congestion remains high, 

particularly in large urban areas. By some calculations, the 

average auto commuter in urban areas spends the 

equivalent of five vacation days each year delayed by traffic. 

In fact, high levels of congestion may be spurring some 

Americans to make different choices about where they live 

and how they get around.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 14

Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, Americans spent more and more of their time in cars as 

commute lengths increased and traffic grew. Personal vehicle travel increased as a share of all 

travel; carpooling, transit, and walking all declined. Driving became more affordable as the cost of 

cars and gas fell relative to other costs and fuel economies improved. More Americans entered the 

workforce, especially women, and the boundaries of metropolitan areas expanded. The population 

of the suburbs increased and rural areas on the fringe of metropolitan areas became exurbs. 

Meanwhile, the population of cities stagnated. Commutes grew in distance and commuters spent 

more time in traffic. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 15

By the mid-2000s, these trends began to change. Americans drove less on average in 2006 than in 

2005, the first year per-capita driving had declined since the oil crises of the 1970s. The rate of 

women entering the workforce slowed and baby boomers began to pass their peak driving years. 

Gas prices increased to historic highs and entered a period of volatility.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 16

Then came the Great Recession. 

Unemployment doubled. Property values 

plummeted and housing construction 

ground to a halt. Economic uncertainty 

affected nearly everyone. Many 

Americans put off buying cars or homes, 

starting families, or beginning new

careers. Driving rates declined.

Congestion, while still severe in many 

metropolitan areas, also declined from 

peak levels.

Today unemployment rates are 

approaching pre-recession levels. People 

are working again and buying housing and 

cars again. But, they are not driving more.

There are many explanations for why this is happening, but there is little consensus regarding 

which factors may have the strongest influence or whether these trends will continue. The recent 

recession and fall in housing prices may have caused temporary changes in how people live and get 

around. Or, it is possible that American attitudes about travel and lifestyles are changing more 

permanently. 

If over the next 30 years, Americans continue to drive less it could mean less pollution and less 

congestion. It could also reduce gas tax revenues making it difficult to maintain our roads and 

bridges. It might also mean that we have learned to live with an inadequate, congested 

transportation system by traveling less.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 17

Millennial Driving Patterns

While all Americans are driving less than they did a decade ago, younger adults are driving much 

less. In 2009, Americans between the ages of 18 and 34 drove 21 percent fewer miles than those in 

that age group did in 2001. Fewer young adults are getting their driver’s licenses. The total number 

of licensed drivers under the age of 34 actually declined between 2001 and 2012, despite an 

increasing population. Many are choosing to live in cities where they can bike, walk, and take 

public transit to work or school. 

The travel behaviors of young adults matter. 

Today there are more Millennials than there 

are Baby Boomers. There are 74 million 

Americans aged 18 to 34, compared to 68 

million Americans aged 50 to 68. 

Social trends are changing attitudes about 

travel, especially among young adults. From 

Uber to Zipcar to Skype, young adults are 

increasingly using technology to find new ways 

to travel or to avoid traveling. Surveys of 

Millennials have shown that they are more likely to value access to their phone over access to a car 

and to shop or socialize online as alternatives to driving. However, surveys also show that most 

still aspire to own a home, and a majority would prefer a single-family home with more space in 

the suburbs, rather than a smaller home closer to amenities in an urban environment.

FHWA forecasts show vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita 

remaining relatively stable, and overall VMT increasing by 23 to 

27 percent over the next 30 years.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 18

That said, many Millennials may not have much of a choice over where they live or whether they 

own a car or drive. The Great Recession hit young adults particularly hard. Many struggled to find 

a job and strike out on their own. Student debt burdens increased. Many also delayed forming 

families. These trends likely impacted the ability of many young adults to own a car, and delayed 

choices, such as having children or buying a home, that often lead to increased driving. 

It is unclear whether driving less is a matter of choice or a matter of economic necessity. It is 

conceivable that a significant portion of young adults have learned to manage without a car and 

will continue to drive less throughout their lives than previous generations. What is clear is that 

Millennials are choosing where they live and how they get around, whether by bikeshare, 

skateboard, bus, compact car or pickup truck, based on their budget and their lifestyle.

Older Americans

Changes in the age of our population will have a lasting effect on how much we drive. Older Americans 

drive less on average than other Americans. On average, Americans over the age of 65 drive half 

the amount of Americans aged 25 to 64. That said, Americans are living longer and healthier lives 

and they are retiring later in life. Over the next 30 years, older Americans may work later in their 

lives and travel for work and leisure more often.

Between 1990 and 2013, the proportion of Americans aged 18–34 

living with their parents increased from 24 percent to 32 percent.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 19

Despite gradual increases in retirement age, as the population as a whole ages, the proportion of 

Americans in the workforce is expected to shrink. Workforce participation, which peaked at 67 

percent in 2000, may decline below 60 percent by 2045.As a result, while the population as a 

whole will grow by approximately 20 percent over the next 30 years, the workforce will grow by 

just 10 percent. Declining workforce participation may slow growth in rush-hour traffic.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 20

By 2045, there will be an estimated 81 million Americans older than 65 making up 21 percent of 

the population. That is nearly twice as many older Americans as there are today. Accommodating 

the travel needs of a growing population of older Americans could further strain transportation 

systems that are already facing multiple challenges. Older Americans are more likely to have 

physical limitations that affect their ability to drive. More than 56 million Americans of all ages 

have a disability. Half of Americans over the age of 65 report having some form of disability, and 

36 percent have a severe disability that requires personal assistance. Many disabilities that limit 

driving ability also limit the ability to travel on other modes of transportation, such as traditional, 

fixed-route transit. Physical limitations can limit the mobility and independence of older 

Americans, as well as their access to critical services. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 21

How can we ensure that older Americans who may not be able to drive are still able to maintain 

their connection to critical services? Many rely on relatives and friends, but others face isolation 

and a reduced quality of life. Transit use by older Americans increased by approximately 40 percent 

over the past decade; even so, older adults use transit for less than 3 percent of all trips.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 22

Paratransit services—individualized door-to-door transportation services—offer a good option for 

some older and Americans with disabilities, but they are more than three times as expensive to 

provide as traditional transit services. Older Americans are unlikely to want to move from their 

homes to areas with better access to services. For people to be able to age in their community and 

to maintain their connections to family, friends, and critical services they need access to a 

responsive transportation system designed to meet their needs.

Income Inequality

For many Americans, declining incomes may make reliable transportation options difficult to 

afford. Our economy is recovering from a long recession, but not all segments of the population 

have benefited. Since 2009, Americans’ incomes have declined for all but the wealthiest 10 percent. 

Today, the average wealth for the other 90 percent of families is at the same level as it was in 1986.

Wealth disparities between white and black and Hispanic households have grown since 2007. The 

median wealth of white households is now 13 times the median wealth of black families and 10 

times that of Hispanic households. 

The number of Americans living in poverty is also increasing. In 2013, there were 45.3 million 

people living in poverty, an increase of more than 14 million since 2000. This stagnation in 

incomes and wealth for the vast majority of Americans is affecting all aspects of life, including 

access to reliable and convenient transportation. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 23

Transportation is the second largest expense for most 

households after housing. On average, transportation 

accounts for nearly 20 percent of total household 

expenses and 12-15 percent of total household income. 

But the burden is much greater for lower income 

households. For consumers in the lowest 20 percent of

income earners, transportation costs account for 

approximately 32 percent of their after-tax income. 

Limited access to affordable housing near employment 

centers, or affordable transportation options to and 

from employment centers, contributes to the high

burden of transportation costs for working class 

families. This represents a major financial hurdle for 

low-income families and a serious barrier to economic 

and social opportunity.

To get and keep a job, workers need access to reliable, affordable transportation, not just to jobs

but to child care and other services that make work possible. To manage costs, many may rely on

more time-consuming and inefficient transportation options. Auto ownership is expensive, and 

typically requires access to credit. Public transit provides an invaluable service to many, but transit 

commutes are, on average, nearly twice as long as auto commutes. As the share of workplaces in 

downtown areas has declined, it has become more challenging to connect workers to workplaces. 

Only about one quarter of jobs in low- and middle-skill industries in major metropolitan areas are 

accessible by a less-than-90-minute transit ride. 

As the American suburban population has grown, so has the population of low-income Americans 

living in suburbs. Today, more low-income Americans live in suburbs than live in cities. In fact, 

between 2000 and 2013 the population of low-income Americans in suburbs grew twice as fast as 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 24

low-income populations in cities.

While jobs have moved to the 

suburbs in recent decades many of 

those jobs are in low paying sectors 

that were hit hard by the recession.

Since few suburbs have robust, 

reliable public transit systems, 

access to a car can be a life-line for 

many. 

Over the past decade, for example, 

the low-income population in the 

suburbs of St. Louis grew by 53 

percent and jobs shifted from the 

urban core. As the number of lowincome resident has increased 

across the suburbs of metropolitan 

St. Louis, local governments have 

struggled to connect low-income 

residents to far-flung job 

opportunities.

Metropolitan Growth

Our cities and suburbs are growing and the population in rural areas is declining. Over the past 

three decades our population has grown increasingly suburban. Today approximately half of all 

Americans live in the suburbs. Three quarters of all population growth since 1980 has occurred in the 

suburbs. Jobs have also moved to the suburbs. In 2010, the number of jobs in metropolitan areas 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 25

located more than 10 miles from downtown was nearly double the number of jobs located fewer 

than three miles from downtown. 

With both population and employment moving to the suburbs, commuting is not simply about 

moving people from suburban homes to downtown jobs. Today, nearly one-third of all commutes 

both begin and end in the suburbs.

Population and job growth in America’s suburbs has serious implications for our transportation 

policy. Congestion may worsen as more Americans drive further, as has happened in previous 

decades. And, as noted earlier, this commuting pattern also presents challenges for connecting 

older and low-income Americans to social services and jobs.

In recent years, the long-term trend of suburban growth has shown signs of shifting. The rate of 

suburban population growth peaked in the 1990s as exurbs grew on the fringes of metropolitan 

areas, leading to the incorporation of previously rural areas. In the 2000s, suburban population 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 26

growth started to slow, while population growth in cities began to increase. Between 2010 and 

2013, the annual population growth rate of large cities was double what it was the previous decade, 

outpacing growth in suburbs. As cities became more desirable, housing prices in many of the 

wealthiest cities increased rapidly. 

Despite a trend towards 

increasing population growth 

in cities over the past decade, 

our national population will 

likely remain largely 

suburban.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 27

Despite signs of change in settlement patterns, our population is likely to remain primarily 

suburban. While cities have become more desirable to many Americans, and the rate of population 

growth in cities has increased, the majority of Americans continue to move to areas with lower 

density, cheaper housing, and more jobs. 

Regional Differences

For these reasons, population growth has been strongest in the South and the West. Between 1980 

and 2010, the South and West added 68 million people, accounting for 83 percent of all population 

growth. Many of the metropolitan areas in these regions have experienced particularly high rates 

of population growth, resulting in rising demand for transportation system capacity and 

increasing congestion. At the same time, many counties in the Midwest and Northeast have been 

losing population. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 28

Jacksonville Expands Transportation Options 

In recent years, the population of Jacksonville has grown at a rate nearly twice the national 

average, largely as the result of burgeoning employment opportunities in Northeast Florida. This 

growth has presented a major transportation challenge for Jacksonville. Traffic congestion is 

getting worse and convenient transit alternatives to downtown jobs are in short supply. In order 

to help move city’s growing population, the Jacksonville Transportation Authority is using $9.3 

million in federal funding to begin work on a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. BRT systems use 

dedicated bus lanes to offer faster, more frequent, and more reliable trips to travelers. 

Jacksonville’s BRT, known as the First Coast Flyer, will begin with six miles of BRT routes and 

expand to a system of over 50 miles by 2019. First Coast Flyer is just one key element of 

Jacksonville’s larger vision for transforming their transportation system. In addition to transit 

improvements, city leaders plan to invest $100 million in new road work. 

.

 

 The Secretary of Transportation attended the groundbreaking ceremony for Jacksonville’s First 

Coast Flyer project.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 29

As the economy has shifted away from agriculture and manufacturing, rural counties in the 

Midwest and industrial counties in the Great Lakes region have shrunk. Between 1980 and 2010, 

more than one thousand counties—nearly 40 percent of rural counties—experienced a net loss in 

population.As suburbs have expanded, rural populations have declined, birth rates in rural areas 

have declined, and retirees and job-seekers have moved to metropolitan areas. 

And, even as urban areas gained population overall, some of the largest population losses over the 

past 30 years have occurred in metropolitan counties. A number of traditional manufacturing 

cities along the Great Lakes—in New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan—lost 

population. Cities including Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit, and St. Louis declined in population. 

Areas with shrinking populations face challenges maintaining existing infrastructure and 

preserving access to economic opportunities and social services. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 30

County Population Change 1980 – 2010
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 31

Population Change Projections by Commuting Zone, 2010-2030
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 32

Innovations in How We Move

Advances in mobile and information technologies are allowing people to make different travel 

choices. The availability of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) has made it easier for individuals and 

businesses to find the most efficient routes to their destination. Increasingly, the public has access 

to real-time traffic conditions and transit schedule information, giving them more power to set 

and change travel schedules and routes. Innovations in the business world that use these 

technologies are also changing the way people access transportation, and the way they consume 

goods and services. 

The number of Americans who work from home at least one day a week increased by 43 percent between 

1997 and 2010. Travel preferences, flexible schedules, “hoteling” (unassigned office seating), 

teleworking, and improvements in communications technologies are all changing how many 

people work and commute to work. The fastest growing “mode” for commuting is, in fact,

telecommuting.

Many employers now have much more flexibility in how their workers can commute and interact 

with their coworkers. Well over one-third of workers have the ability to set or change their arrival 

time at work—including nearly half of those in professional, managerial, and technical 

occupations. Increases in telecommuting and flexible work schedules could help to reduce 

congestion in large metropolitan areas by reducing rush-hour travel.

In 2010, more than 13 million Americans—9.4 percent of all 

workers—worked from home at least one day per week.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 33
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 34

E-commerce may soon substitute for a significant portion of household shopping trips. Currently, more 

than one in five trips taken by households is a shopping trip; online shopping has not yet 

significantly affected this pattern.In 2009, the average household reported purchasing three items 

per month online, and approximately 4 percent of retail sales were made online—but, by 2014,

e-commerce sales accounted for 6.6 percent of all sales. The most common types of products 

purchased online were consumer electronics, books, and clothing.Online shopping continues to 

grow rapidly and its use is significantly more widespread among younger age cohorts. At current 

rates of growth, online purchases could account for 10 percent of retail in less than five years. 

New ways to access transportation are emerging that could reduce the degree to which Americans rely on 

personal vehicle travel. Car sharing is growing at a rapid rate. In 2014, there were 1.6 million 

members in 24 active programs in the United States, marking a more than tenfold increase in 

membership in just seven years. For many urban households, car sharing services make it more 

convenient to not own a car. For those households, car sharing makes using a car more affordable. 

Car sharing also reduces the incentive for households to own cars (either a second car, or any car at 

all). New sharing and ride-matching services now emerging allow individuals to share their 

personal vehicles with others and to match drivers with passengers. 

As online shopping captures a large market share, it will reduce 

travel associated with shopping trips, and reduce the need for 

private vehicle ownership, but it may also increase truck traffic in 

urban areas as goods are delivered to residences.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 35

In recent years, bicycle sharing has also emerged in more than 30 cities, including New York, 

Chicago, San Francisco, Minneapolis, Boston, and Washington, D.C. Bike-share systems allow 

people to conveniently travel short distances and connect to other modes, particularly public 

transit. They also allow tourists to travel by bike. Similar to car sharing, bike sharing provides a 

low-cost mobility service, to address “first-mile” and “last-mile” needs. 

Ride sourcing services, such as Lyft and Uber, are disrupting and augmenting traditional taxi 

service by using mobile apps to connect for-hire drivers to riders. In response, traditional taxi 

companies are also adopting new technologies to make their service more reliable and convenient. 

Ride sourcing services are growing rapidly. Ride sourcing and ridesharing business models could 

help to speed the adoption of automated vehicles, as they become available, by lowering costs of 

ownership and expanding their accessibility. They can also help to supplement transit service in 

urban areas by providing efficient, direct service for short trips and providing service during 

transit system off-hours.

The recent emergence of ride sourcing businesses demonstrates a key challenge for governments. 

The sharing economy uses the Internet and mobile apps to allow individuals to monetize 

underutilized space, assets, and skills. The emerging sharing economy defies traditional categories 

of “business” and “personal” and new business models are proliferating faster than the legal and 

regulatory arenas can adapt to them. Over the next 30 years, our legal and regulatory system may 

be increasingly challenged by emerging forms of business and travel that transcend traditional 

legal and planning concepts. 

Uber, launched in 2010, is now valued at $40 billion,

and operates in 90 American cities.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 36

On an average day in America, 90 people die in motor vehicle 

crashes and more than 6,000 are injured. 

Roadway Safety

Transportation safety is a critical societal issue and the U.S. DOT’s top priority. Among Americans 

aged 1 to 34, motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of death. Americans spend more than 1 

million days in the hospital each year as a result of crash injuries. Motor vehicle crashes resulted in 

32,719 deaths, including 4,735 pedestrians, 4,668 motorcyclists, 743 cyclists, and 396 children 

under the age of 5. Among those killed, almost half were not wearing a seatbelt and nearly a third 

of fatalities involved an alcohol-impaired driver. Crash injuries resulted in Americans paying an 

estimated $18 billion in medical costs and losing an estimated $33 billion in work lost costs. 

Fortunately, much progress has been made in reducing the number of deaths and injuries across 

our transportation system. Passenger safety is rapidly improving across all transportation modes. 

Since 1990 the total number of transportation fatalities has decreased by 25 percent despite 

increasing passenger travel on all modes. Fatalities in commercial aviation have become 

exceedingly rare, while fatalities in rail and on waterborne transportation have steadily declined. 

These changes are the result of a wide range of factors, including improving vehicle technologies, 

safer infrastructure, increased enforcement, higher safety standards, and changing demographics. 

For example, seatbelt use has increased dramatically from a national level of about 14 percent in 

the early 1980s to 87 percent in 2013. It is estimated that seatbelt use alone saves more than 

12,000 lives each year. Today, 49 States have adopted mandatory belt use laws. The introduction 

of airbags has also saved thousands of lives. NHTSA estimates that since their introduction,

frontal air bags have saved nearly 43,000 lives.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 37

The number and rate of highway fatalities has decreased 

significantly in recent decades. Innovations in policy, technology, 

vehicle, and roadway design are expected to further enhance 

driver safety in the future.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 38

Now, vehicle safety is progressing beyond basic seatbelts and lighting, to high-tech safety features 

that can help drivers avoid accidents altogether. Thanks to continuing innovation, today's vehicles 

are the safest in history and have contributed to year-over-year decreases in crash-related fatalities 

and injuries nationwide. In addition to frontal and side air bags that help to prevent injuries in 

crashes, a number of crash avoidance technologies are now featured in passenger cars and trucks 

including automated emergency braking systems, lane-departure and forward collision warning 

systems, and electronic stability control. In the future, connected and automated vehicle 

technologies could help drivers avoid a significant portion of the type of vehicle crashes that occur 

today.

Roadway safety is also improving thanks to innovations in roadway design and the introduction of 

a number of low-cost safety features to roadways. Roundabouts and other alternative intersection 

designs are improving safety and mobility at interchanges. Widespread use of rumble strips, 

reduced pavement edge drop-offs, and the application of high friction surface treatments at critical 

locations are reducing the risk of crashes. Finally, the electronic collection of roadway and crash 

data is allowing decisionmakers to better understand the characteristics of high crash locations 

and to systematically apply safety features to roadways.

Policy Implications

Understanding how people might travel and where they might live in the future helps planners and 

policymakers decide what policies and investments may be needed to ensure the performance of 

our transportation system. The trends in population, geography, and mobility reviewed in this 

chapter begin to demonstrate the challenges and opportunities that will face us in the coming 

years. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 39

First and foremost, we will need to find ways to ensure that

our already congested transportation system can 

accommodate the travel needs of nearly 70 million more 

people. To do this, we will either need more capacity to 

accommodate growing demand, or we will need 

strategies that result in more efficient use of existing 

capacity. Some strategies, like pricing, rely less on 

government investment; however, they may have other 

effects, such as creating “first” and “second” class 

transportation systems. 

Changes in the composition of our population will 

counteract some, but not nearly all, of the increase in 

demand for transportation. As our population ages and 

workforce participation declines, per capita driving 

rates will likely stabilize or decrease. However, an 

increasing number of older Americans living in autodependent areas will face challenges accessing critical

services. 

We know that social and technological changes will affect how Americans travel, although we do 

not know exactly how. Millennials and future generations of Americans might drive less than their 

parents throughout their lives. They might prefer cities to suburbs, phones to cars, and buying

their groceries from online retailers instead of going to the supermarket. Initial indications seem 

to suggest that the overall effects of changes like these may be to slow growth in individual driving 

rates—even as population increases result in more travelers on all modes.

Attracting Millennials through 

Transportation

Across the country, cities are looking for 

ways to attract and retain young 

workers and promote local economic 

development. A survey conducted by the 

American Planning Association found 

that only 8% of Millennials would prefer 

to live in an auto-dependent suburb. In 

Denver, city leaders have heard from 

both residents and business leaders that 

building a comprehensive bicycle 

network should be a top priority in 

order to attract and retain young people 

and the businesses that employ them.

As a result, Denver’s Downtown Area 

Plan outlines a specific strategy to build 

protected bike lanes to promote 

mobility and economic development.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 40

In 2045, most of us will probably still use personal vehicles to get to work and to go about our daily 

tasks. Our population will increasingly move toward large metropolitan areas. However, these 

metropolitan areas will not look like the cities of one hundred or even fifty years ago. They will be 

much larger and much less dense, with new investments and developments being located outside 

the urban core where land is less expensive. Short of land use plans that expressly curtail it, sprawl 

is likely to remain a dominant development pattern and, if we do not act, congestion will be much 

more widespread.

Some cities are becoming laboratories for new types of transportation, including ridesharing and 

ride sourcing services, enhanced cycling facilities, and an expanding set of transit options. 

However, if cities cannot find ways to affordably accommodate increased population growth, 

suburbs will grow at a faster rate. We may increasingly find ourselves in a world where some cities 

become the domain of the affluent, while those with less wealth must contend with congestion on 

metropolitan outskirts. As income inequality increases, and poverty becomes suburbanized, the 

provision of affordable housing and transportation options will become an increasingly important 

policy challenge.

As many metropolitan areas grow, rural populations and some economically challenged 

metropolitan areas are shrinking. These areas are likely to face challenges maintaining access for 

rural and economically disadvantaged populations as their tax bases decline. Governments at all 

levels will face challenges structuring programs to balance equity and fairness claims, while 

ensuring that scarce resources are allocated to areas that most need capacity. 

Barring major social changes, we will remain a largely suburban 

population given the current housing supply and infrastructure

network in suburbs.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 41

There is a wide range of policies that could potentially reduce congestion and preserve quality, 

affordable, and accessible transportation options for all of us. These options include:

 Increasing investments in roadway capacity to address congestion in metropolitan areas.

 Restructuring federal surface transportation programs to allow for more targeted, demanddriven, mode-neutral investments.

 Expanding and/or improving the quality of transit services.

 Strengthen the coordination of human service transportation services to meet the needs of 

older adults and people with disabilities.

 Subsidizing car ownership for the working poor.

 Promoting integrated transportation and land-use planning.

 Supporting services such as bike sharing, car sharing and ride sourcing.

 Integrating land use and transportation planning to support sustainable and efficient 

development patterns.

 Supporting design and planning choices that support alternatives to vehicle travel.

 Adopting congestion pricing.

 Lifting the federal restriction on the tolling of interstate highways.

 Encouraging companies to adopt telework policies.

 Supporting investments in transportation technologies and operational strategies that can 

reduce congestion.

These policy options are explored in further depth in the conclusion of this report. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move 42

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Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 46

How We Move Things
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 47
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 48

Introduction

Our freight system is a multimodal engine that we depend on to drive our economy. These trucks, 

trains, barges and ports operate so efficiently at times most of us take it for granted. Yet, our 

coastal ports are modern wonders and critical gateways to a global economy. The twin ports of 

Long Beach and Los Angeles process hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of imports and exports 

each year. Imports arrive on giant container ships and are transferred to trucks and trains which 

take the cargo to intermodal transfer centers and, from there, to warehouses and stores across the 

country. Freight trains move enormous volumes grain from farms in the Midwest and Great Plains 

to barges on the Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio Rivers to get transferred to ships in ports along 

the gulf coast, eventually feeding markets abroad. As we dine in St. Louis on a fresh fillet of 

Sockeye Salmon caught off Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula most of us don’t give a passing thought to the 

wonders of our modern air freight system.

Our nation’s ability to compete in global markets, and to meet the needs and expectations of 

consumers and industry, depends on a robust multimodal freight transportation system. In an age 

of online shopping and next-day delivery, it can be easy to take for granted the policies, 

infrastructure, vehicles, trains and vessels, and workers that make all of this possible. But, today, 

our freight system is under serious strain. Our roads, railways, and some of the largest, busiest

airports are becoming increasingly congested. Many of our ports and inland waterways suffer from 

lack of dredging and aging facilities. Despite these challenges, there are opportunities to improve 

the performance of our freight system.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 49

Today, freight patterns are changing at a global and local scale. International trade is increasing, 

global manufacturing centers are shifting and trade routes are changing. Firms are driving down 

logistics costs through just-in-time shipping. Online shopping is increasing demand for home 

delivery of consumer products. Ports worldwide are becoming increasingly automated. Intermodal 

freight shipped in containers by ships, trains, and trucks is increasingly rapidly. Surging domestic 

energy production is straining infrastructure in oil production regions. In the next 30 years,

changes in freight demand, shipping, manufacturing, logistics, technology, and energy production 

are poised to transform the economics of transportation yet again.

This chapter addresses the trends that will shape the economics of transportation and freight 

movement through 2045.

Population and Economic Growth

Our freight system moves approximately 63 tons of goods per American each year. As our population 

grows and our economy expands, demand for freight will grow as well, straining an already 

challenged system. 
Beyond Traffic

 Draft  Trends How We Move Things 50

The economy is growing again. Despite 

the recent recession, the size of the 

American economy has more than 

doubled over the past 30 years, 

growing at an average annual rate of 

approximately 2.6 percent. At the 

same time, businesses have become 

more efficient in their use of 

transportation. The American 

economy has benefited from the 

deregulation of the trucking and rail 

industries, which has led to increases 

in productivity and innovations in 

supply chain logistics. Over the long 

term, transportation and logistics 

costs have declined as a percentage of 

gross domestic product (GDP). By 

some calculations, logistics and 

transportation costs have declined 

from 16 percent of GDP to 8 percent

over the past 30 years. Logistics costs 

as a share of the American economy 

are some of the lowest in the world, 

comparing favorably to Europe and 

less than half those in China.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 51

The American economy has become less freight-intensive as economic growth has outpaced the 

growth in freight activity. As we have shifted from a manufacturing economy toward a more 

service-oriented economy, and increased our production and consumption of higher-value, lowerweight products, such as pharmaceuticals and personal electronics, freight movements have 

declined in proportion to the total economy. Likewise, as our economy has become increasingly 

dependent on foreign trade, the nature and location of freight movements has shifted. More goods 

produced by American factories and farms are now bound for exports and manufactured goods are 

increasingly imported from overseas through our ports.

As our economy grows, and even by conservative estimates it is expected to double in size over the 

next 30 years, freight movement will increase as well, albeit at a slower rate. Truck and rail freight 

movements are expected to increase by approximately 45 percent. Air freight is expected to triple 

in response to demand for the rapid movement of high-value merchandise, while multimodal 

shipments will likely double. Overall, the volume of imports and exports transported by our freight 

system are expected to more than double in the next 30 years. This will have implications for 

ports, which handle 75 percent of America’s international trade by volume, and for intermodal 

carriers that move imports and exports between ports of entry and inland locations. 

Moving Memphis Forward: A Local Freight Economy

Memphis is a major freight and logistics hub. Five major railways converge in the area and 

railroads have invested heavily in intermodal facilities there. Memphis is also home the second 

largest cargo airport in the world, Memphis International Airport, and the FedEx global 

operations center. Memphis is also home to hundreds of trucking companies and services barge 

traffic on the Mississippi river. Nearly 30 percent of regional employment is concentrated in 

the transportation and warehousing sector. A key regional challenge to accommodate additional 

growth in freight will be to improve intermodal connectivity and to address freight bottlenecks, 

while ensuring that the potential negative impacts of increased freight transportation on local 

residents are avoided or mitigated.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 52

Impacts of Increasing Freight

Growth in overall freight demand will put increased pressure on freight bottlenecks throughout the 

country. In 2012, approximately 10 million trucks moved more than 13 billion tons of freight 

across America’s highways. These trucks are major contributors to congestion on 4,500 of the 

busiest highway miles in the nation. 

Bottlenecks severely limit the performance and capacity of the highway system by delaying large 

numbers of truck freight shipments. Areas with the worst truck delays include major international 

trade gateways and hubs, such as Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago, and major distribution 

centers such as Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas-Fort Worth, Denver, Columbus (Ohio), and Portland 

(Oregon). Border crossings are also bottlenecks. At two major Mexico border crossings, it takes 

trucks, on average, nearly an hour to enter the United States.

Freight systems across all modes face capacity constraints and rising maintenance costs. After 

decades of consolidation, rail companies face rising infrastructure costs to resolve bottlenecks and 

to provide capacity to meet rising demand. Aging locks and dams are causing delays on inland 

waterways, and their maintenance costs are steadily increasing.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 53

Increased demand for higher value goods is limiting the supply of transportation available for 

lower value bulk goods across all modes. The agriculture and natural-resource sectors tend to ship 

heavy products, such as grain and ore, in bulk, using barges, rail, and pipelines. These industries 

typically deal in high-weight, low-value commodity products, where transportation costs account 

Addressing the Chicago Region’s Freight Rail Bottlenecks

Chicago is the busiest rail hub in the United States. Approximately one quarter of all U.S. rail 

traffic and nearly half of intermodal rail traffic passes through rail lines in or nearby Chicago. Six 

of the nation’s seven largest freight rail carriers operate in the region. It is also a hub for intercity 

rail and home to the most heavily used commuter rail services outside of New York. Amtrak and 

regional commuter rail service share the same tracks as freight trains leading to conflict and 

delays as demand for passenger and freight rail transportation has grown. Increasing rail traffic 

has also created delays and safety risks for vehicular traffic and pedestrians where railways cross 

roadways. Today a train can traverse the country from the ports in Los Angeles to Chicago in as 

little as 48 hours, but the same train may spend 30 hours just to travel across the Chicago region. 

The Chicago Region Environmental and Transportation Efficiency Program CREATE is a $3.8 

billion cooperative project involving U.S. DOT, Illinois DOT, Chicago DOT, six major North 

American freight rail carriers and two passenger carriers to resolve rail conflicts and increase rail 

capacity, speed and reliability in the Chicago area. It involves the separation of freight and 

passenger trains at six key junctions and the elimination of 25 road/rail grade crossings by 

creating overpasses or underpasses at rail intersections. Fifty miles of new track will link yards 

and create a second east-west route across the city, building redundancy into the overburdened 

system. Established more than a decade ago, the program has completed close to half of a planned 

70 projects throughout the region. So far the projects have helped to reduce the average time it 

takes to pass through the Chicago Rail Terminal from 48 hours to 32 hours.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 54

for a higher proportion of the overall cost than is the case for manufactured goods. The relative 

efficiency of the American freight system helps these industries compete in export markets. For 

example, one dollar of final demand for agricultural products generally requires about 14 cents of 

transportation services, while manufactured goods and mining products require only between 8 

and 9 cents. Higher freight costs for bulk goods could increase the prices that American consumers 

pay for goods, negatively impact local economies, particularly in rural areas, and reduce U.S. 

competitiveness when exporting these products abroad. In a global economy, transportation costs 

can have a major impact on whether U.S. products are competitively priced.

Our increasingly urbanized population poses challenges for “first mile” and “last mile” freight movements. 

Freight demand is expected to be concentrated in the large metropolitan areas where America’s 

population is growing the fastest. Congestion in several metropolitan population centers is already 

severe and could become more extreme. Increasing freight demand in these densely populated 

areas will complicate “first mile” movement of goods out of ports and the “last mile” movement of 

goods from freight hubs to their final destinations, which is often the least efficient portion of the 

supply chain for many consumer goods.

Freight-related traffic can also result in delays and congested road conditions for passenger and 

emergency response vehicles. For example, highway-rail grade crossings can lead to lengthy delays. 

Traffic to and from ports and other major freight centers can increase traffic on local roads and 

affect neighboring communities through noise and air pollution. These issues may become more 

challenging as online shopping increases the portion of deliveries that are made directly to 

consumers’ homes. The challenge of delivering freight to dense urban areas will grow in 

importance as urban populations and deliveries increase. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 55

Rural Freight Transportation: A Critical Link

Many rural areas depend on a robust multimodal freight network to support their economy. While 

the majority of freight in our country is delivered by trucks, railways are often essential for the 

affordable transport of heavy and bulky commodities such as lumber, wheat, coal, and heavy 

equipment. Inland waterways are also a critical feature of a robust rural freight transportation 

network. The first long distance system for moving goods and people, inland waterways remain an 

inexpensive alternative for moving commodities such as grain and iron ore. Ultimately, the role of 

freight in rural communities varies according to the primary economic sectors whether it is 

tourism, manufacturing or agriculture. The nature of agriculture product matters as well: heavy 

grains rely upon barge and rail transport, while specialized or highly perishable fruits and 

vegetables may require air transport or overnight trucking to reach domestic and global markets.

Freight transport is critical to support rural industry, as it transports the raw goods and products 

needed to support and promote growth in rural economies. Well-planned, multimodal freight 

systems provide opportunities for companies to locate and grow in rural regions due to efficient 

and reliable connections with major markets and ports. Intermodal facilities and logistics centers 

located in rural areas can benefit from lower costs than urban areas and may be strategically 

located at a key transfer point in a freight corridor. 

Rural freight transportation also poses challenges to policymakers. For example, the restructuring 

of the rail industry has led to the abandonment of many branch lines, cutting off service to many 

rural areas, leading to grain elevator consolidation along mainline and increased truck travel on 

rural roads to get wheat from farms to grain elevators. Heavy truck traffic along freight corridors 

passing through rural areas can also raise road maintenance costs without bringing direct 

economic benefits to the area. Such issues present challenges for rural regions, which have fewer 

resources and less flexibility to address such issues.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 56
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 57

Peak-Period Congestion on the National 

Highway System: 2011 and 2040

Assuming no changes in network capacity, 

increases in truck and passenger vehicle traffic 

are forecast to expand areas of recurring peakperiod congestion to 37 percent of 

the National Highway System in 2040 

compared with 11 percent in 2007. This will 

slow traffic on 21,000 miles of the NHS and 

create stop-and-go conditions on an additional 

40,000 miles. 2011

2040
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 58

Safety Effects

The need to transport increasing amounts of freight to large urban areas could increase conflicts 

between freight and passenger traffic. Higher truck traffic and increasing movement of hazardous 

materials such as crude oil, could raise safety risks, however trends show impressive improvements 

freight safety.

Freight transportation is involved in approximately 13 percent of all transportation fatalities. In 

2013, 3,944 people were killed in crashes involving large trucks. Large trucks are less likely to be 

involved in crashes than passenger vehicles, but crashes involving trucks are more likely to be fatal.

In 2012, approximately 600 people died in rail, vessel, and pipeline accidents. While the amount of 

freight transportation activity has increased in recent decades, the number of fatalities has 

declined in nearly all modes. New technologies and better driver education (for both car and truck 

drivers) could augment this decline.

The rail safety record is improving with accidents and derailment down by nearly 50 percent over 

the past decade and fatalities down by 12 percent. Accidents related to human error and track 

defects account for more than two-thirds of all train accidents, and trespassing and highway-rail 

grade crossing incidents account for approximately 95 percent of all rail-related fatalities. The 

implementation of positive train control should contribute to increasing safety in railroad 

operations.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 59

Transportation of oil by rail has increased 

dramatically since 2008, when less than 1 percent of 

oil was transported by rail. Today, more than 10 

percent of all crude oil is now shipped by rail. Even 

so, crude oil still accounts for less than two percent 

of all car loads on Class I railroads. 

Recent derailments of tank cars highlight rising 

safety and environmental risks associated with 

increasing transportation of oil by rail. As more oil 

has moved by rail, accidents involving oil spills have 

increased. In 2013, more than one million gallons of 

oil were spilled due to derailments, more than the 

total oil spilled as a result of rail accidents over the 

past 35 years. Many railroads and trucking 

companies are also working closely with government and labor representatives to address operator 

fatigue issues, instill a culture of safety among operators and establish the use of performancebased risk management programs that can further improve safety records. In the long term, the 

introduction of connected vehicle technologies in trucks and automated vehicle technologies in 

both cars and trucks should lead to further improvements in safety as they come on-line. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 60

Environmental Impacts

Increasing freight activity in urban areas could also intensify the debate over land use and 

pollution. Without effective policies and regulations, growing freight movements will increase 

greenhouse gas emissions, and will affect human health in neighborhoods along freight corridors. 

Trucking, intermodal rail, waterborne transportation, and air cargo constitute large and growing 

sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Trucking accounts for about 9 percent of all highway miles 

traveled, but it is the source of 20 percent of all transportation-sector greenhouse gas emissions. 

Freight on other modes accounts for an additional 7 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. 

Trucking is the single largest contributor to freight-related air pollution nationally. Compared to cars, 

heavy trucks emit large amounts of toxic air pollutants—including hydrocarbons and nitrous 

oxides. While trucks have made great strides in reducing emissions, the average diesel-fueled heavy 

truck emits more than twice as many hydrocarbons per mile and more than 15 times as many 

nitrous oxides as the average passenger car. These emissions can impact human health, 

particularly in neighborhoods adjacent to heavily trafficked freight corridors. 

Heavy trucks are responsible for most of the growth in greenhouse 

gas emissions in the freight sector.

Since 1990, greenhouse gas emissions from trucking have increased 

five times faster than emissions from passenger travel.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 61
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 62

Even as demand for freight movement increases, new emissions standards, fuel sources, and 

energy-efficient intermodal transportation may lead to reductions in emissions of nitrous oxide 

(NOx) and particulate matter. Substantial reductions in freight-related NOx emissions have been 

made since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency required the use of ultralow sulfur diesel 

fuel in heavy-duty trucks and other diesel-powered highway vehicles beginning in 2006. Truckrelated NOx and PM-10 emissions are projected to decline by 56 and 66 percent, respectively, from 

2012 to 2030. Continued improvements in engine technologies, including the use of new fuels 

(such as natural gas or hydrogen) and vehicles built from lighter materials, should reduce fuel 

consumption and emissions from all forms of freight vehicles. Similarly, new standards for cleaner 

and more fuel efficient trucks, trains, vessels, and aircraft may reduce the pollution associated with 

carrying more freight.

Globalization

Over the past 30 years, international trade has increased at a much faster rate than overall 

economic growth. U.S. exports nearly doubled over the past decade. Total exports and imports of 

goods reached $3.9 trillion in 2013, accounting for 23 percent of U.S. GDP.

In the next 30 years, it is likely that globalization will continue to expand the supply of imports 

domestically and demand for exports globally. With 95 percent of the world’s consumers outside 

the United States, and with a shrinking share of global GDP due to the projected economic rise of 

China, India, and other emerging markets, international trade will grow in importance and put 

increasing pressure on our ports, border crossings, airports, and intermodal facilities to efficiently 

move imports and exports to market.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 63

In addition to changes in the volume of international freight, the origin and destination of freight 

trips may undergo significant changes. Maritime trade will remain the leading form of 

international freight transportation; however, there will be changes in the dominant maritime 

trade routes.

The widening and deepening of the Panama Canal, which is expected to be completed by 2016, will

enable larger ocean-going vessels, known as “post-Panamax” ships, to pass through the Canal. Of 

the cargo passing through the Canal, 64 percent originates in or is destined for the United States, 

so the widening is expected to increase container ship freight volume loaded and unloaded at Gulf 

and East Coast ports. Canal improvements may also increase traffic at West Coast ports by 

enabling more efficient commerce between those ports and the Caribbean, as well as Atlantic ports 

in South America. It will also become increasingly important for ports to address congestion and 

equipment shortage challenges generated by bigger, new-generation container ships that offload 

larger volumes of containers in relatively shorter amounts of time.

The melting polar ice cap is opening Arctic shipping lanes. The Northern Sea Route, a shipping lane 

across the rim of Siberia connecting the Atlantic to the Pacific, first became passable in 2007. In 

2013, a Danish cargo ship became the first to use the Northwest Passage, the sea route running 

from Alaska through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, as an alternative to the traditional voyage 

through the Panama Canal. While these seasonal routes are unlikely to rival the high-traffic Suez 

Canal and Panama Canal routes, they may provide a partial alternative to existing maritime routes. 

However, regular use of these new routes would require considerable investments in facilities to 

service and ensure safe passage of ships through these areas. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 64
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 65

Increasing imports and exports could lead to greater congestion at container ports and border 

crossings, resulting in delayed shipments, increased transportation costs, and intensifying 

pollution. Today, intermodal shipments are concentrated in the top 10 to 12 deep water ports with 

the requisite infrastructure. Eighty-five percent of America’s imported and exported containerized 

freight flows through just 10 ports. 

There are also international shipments that do not involve U.S. importers or exporters, or 

domestic supply and demand, but still influence volume and congestion on our freight network.

These shipments, commonly referred to as in-transit shipments, travel from one country through 

the U.S. destined for another country without ever entering into U.S. commerce. Some foreign

shippers use our nation’s freight system of coastal ports, airports, pipelines, railways, and 

highways as a “land bridge.” The Northern Sea Route, expansion of the Panama Canal, and the 

continued trends in congestion and bottlenecks may lead to a decrease in in-transit shipments 

through the U.S. in the future. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 66

The concentration of intermodal shipments in these ports makes our international freight system 

vulnerable to disruption. If security incidents were to lead to heightened inspection requirements, 

they could further slow goods movement at ports of entry. Labor disputes and natural disasters 

also have the potential to impact operations at key ports and disrupt the national economy.

Port authorities are already investing billions to modernize their facilities and accommodate newgeneration container ships by dredging harbors, raising bridges, and purchasing larger ship-toshore cranes. Ports will need to continue to respond to increased demand for efficient intermodal 

freight movement with innovations that allow them to transfer cargo from ships to roads and rails 

more quickly. Finally, American ports may need to expand and become more efficient to compete 

with growing deep-water ports in neighboring and nearby countries. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 67
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 68

Freight Innovations

The freight industry is quietly going through a technological revolution as information and 

communications technologies are applied to optimize global supply chains. These technologies and 

business innovations are accelerating trends that have led to 30 years of declining logistics and 

transportation costs relative to GDP. Emerging supply-chain optimization practices are resulting 

in firms placing a premium on the reliability of transportation services. 

Manufacturers and shippers are becoming better and better at using information technology to 

optimize performance. Today, the private sector uses new technologies to analyze demand and 

rapidly adjust supply chains. This is not a new practice, but enhanced data systems now provide 

manufacturers and distributors access to real-time information that allows them to adapt more 

quickly than ever before.

Private firms are also changing the way they package and ship products to make deliveries more 

efficient. Delivery consolidation through less-than-truckload deliveries combines multi-stop 

shipments into a single truck, and reduces the number of trucks on our highways. Similarly, firms 

are now using mobile technology to connect truck drivers to last-mile freight orders that can fill 

excess truck capacity. By matching supply and demand, these companies have the potential to 

improve the efficiency of independent operators. These efficiency innovations may also help to 

reduce the impact of growing demand on the capacity of our freight transportation system. 

Recent technological advances in data analysis systems, automatic vehicle and container 

identification systems, and satellite navigational systems will improve the efficiency of freight 

movement. These technologies will improve situational awareness, allowing real-time 

decentralized access to location and operational data. Understanding where a package is at any 

given time (even when it is in the air or on the road) and when it is due to arrive will allow for more 

efficient movement of freight across modes and through processing facilities. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 69

Advances in information and communications technologies will improve data collection and 

analysis capabilities of logistics firms and freight planners, enabling faster and more accurate 

analysis of freight routes, travel times, and infrastructure capacity. They will also improve safety 

by automating and expediting inspection processes, and by allowing for improved monitoring of 

security information.

Fully and partially automated trucks, ships, and planes, and automatic freight-transfer facilities, may 

eventually transform the freight industry. Autonomous vehicles will not suddenly appear on our 

roads, but automated features that promise to improve the safety and efficiency of freight 

movement are already being introduced. On trucks, these include sensor systems that combine 

adaptive speed control, automatic braking, lane-departure warning systems, and vehicle-to-vehicle 

communications. By allowing sensors on one truck to communicate with sensors on another truck, 

partially automated trucks could soon travel more closely together to improve fuel efficiency, in a 

practice known as truck platooning or truck trains. 

Automation is already affecting ports. At major container ports around the world, the process of 

transferring containers from ships to docks, trucks, and trains is becoming highly automated, 

reducing reliance on human operators. Major American container ports will need to invest in 

automation to compete.

Automation will change the nature of work in the freight industry. Advanced automation will increase 

productivity in the freight industry and change the skills needed to work in freight. Technologies 

that affect driving, vehicle maintenance, warehousing, and loading will alter professional 

development needs, and employment levels—and will affect the average income for transportation 

workers. Managing and maintaining automated ports and fleets will require advanced mechanical 

and data analysis jobs that demand higher skills and higher pay than traditional freight work.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 70

While some innovations in freight, such as automated driving, seem incredibly complex, some of 

the most transformative innovations are remarkably simple. The container—a large, standardized 

metal box used for cargo shipments—has become the essential unit of intermodal freight 

movement. Since its introduction as an alternative to conventional break-bulk cargo shipping in 

the 1960s, the container has influenced virtually all aspects of the freight transportation system, 

including the size of cargo ships, the design of container ships, the structure of freight railroads, 

and the scale of global trade.

The use of efficient, high-speed intermodal transfers in economically large units between ships, 

railcars, truck chassis, and barges has led to profound changes in the transportation sector. By 

reducing handling time, labor costs, and packing costs, and also reducing damage and theft during 

transport, container transportation has facilitated economies of scale and improvements in 

handling speed and throughput, particularly for valuable non-bulk commodities. As a result of 

container use, intermodal freight movement has expanded dramatically since the 1980s, 

particularly for shipments over 2,000 miles. 

The advent of containerization has put a premium on seamless intermodal freight movements.

The efficiency of our freight system now depends on fast and effective transfers of containers 

between modes. Intermodal facilities where cargo is stored, assembled, and transferred have 

become increasingly important for the efficient movement of freight. Many of the operational 

bottlenecks that cause delays and raise the costs of moving freight occur at or around intermodal

transfer points, such as ports, rail facilities, and distribution centers. 

The number of intermodal rail shipments increased from 2 million 

in 1980 to 12.8 million in 2013.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 71

Freight planners and policymakers will increasingly look to intermodal logistics hubs to improve 

the efficiency of transfers between multiple freight modes and reduce the negative impacts of 

freight on local communities. Increased use of practices, such as double-stacking of containers on 

railway cars, will also increase the capacity and efficiency of the freight system. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 72

Increasing Domestic Energy Production 

America is experiencing an energy renaissance. This current boom is a result of advances in 

technology that have opened up reserves of natural gas and shale oil previously unreachable at 

economically competitive rates. While shale oil has been extracted for over a century, new 

technologies and changes in global energy markets have made the recovery of shale oil, and gas 

production, significantly more profitable in recent years. As a result, domestic oil and gas 

production has increased rapidly, creating issues for the safe and efficient transportation of energy 

from production regions to refineries and consumer markets. 

Over the past three years, domestic oil production has increased by nearly 60 percent. We now produce 

more than 260 million barrels of oil a month, the highest level in more than 30 years. Domestic

shale gas production has increased from 2 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 10 trillion cubic feet in 

2013. By 2035, experts predict that annual shale gas production will rise to 13.6 trillion cubic 

feet—enough natural gas to heat 204 million homes each year. As a result of this boom, net 

imports of natural gas and oil have been falling since 2007. The Energy Information 

Administration has predicted that we will become a net exporter of natural gas before 2020. That 

said, future developments, such as fluctuations in global fuel prices or the development of 

affordable alternative fuels, could alter current oil and gas production trends.

In 2013, the United States surpassed Saudi Arabia to become the 

largest oil-producing country in the world.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 73

High-value energy products already account 

for more than 30 percent of the domestic tonmiles of freight moved each year. Should U.S. 

energy production continue to grow, it will 

have profound implications for our 

transportation system. The natural gas and oil 

boom has created jobs in drilling, pipelines, 

and construction, and is attracting many new 

people to production regions. Simultaneously, 

these regions are transporting unprecedented 

levels of natural gas and oil to distribution 

centers around the country. As a result, 

demand for transportation in energy 

production regions has grown. Industrial 

traffic—heavy trucks, and drilling and other 

production equipment—is overwhelming 

many roads in states such as Pennsylvania, 

West Virginia, Ohio, and North Dakota. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 74

The shifting geography of petroleum production is increasing safety risks and raising 

transportation and infrastructure maintenance costs. The current pipeline network, regulated by 

the U.S. DOT’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, is oriented toward

imports arriving at Gulf Coast refineries and does not connect the East and West Coasts to the 

newer domestic oil supplies. 

The domestic production boom will increase demand for infrastructure capacity to move oil and 

gas. Facilities will need to be reoriented to accommodate gas and oil supply and demand. Federal

and state agencies will need to address new challenges related to human safety, and risks to the 

natural environment, resulting from the transportation of natural gas and petroleum. Lower fuel 

prices will lead the trucking, rail, and transit industries to increase the use of compressed natural 

gas (CNG) and liquid natural gas (LNG) as an affordable alternative to diesel. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 75

Recent growth in domestic oil production has been concentrated in 

states such as Texas and North Dakota, increasing the volume of 

industrial traffic in these areas.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 76

Policy Implications

Freight transportation is quietly undergoing a transformation. Our economy is becoming ever 

more globalized, with cargo increasingly moving across borders and between modes. This trend has 

increased the importance of international gateways and intermodal connections for facilitating the 

efficient movement of imports and exports. Innovations in supply chain logistics and information 

technologies are raising the expectations of consumers and firms for fast, reliable, flexible, and 

efficient delivery of goods and resources. Automation has the potential to revolutionize how ports, 

trains, vessels, and trucks operate. Domestic energy production has increased, leading to increased 

demand for infrastructure to safely and efficiently transport energy products to where they are 

needed.

As global economic competition increases and trade patterns change, we will need to decide how 

best to invest limited public resources in freight capacity. We will need to consider what 

infrastructure capacity is needed and where, and how to make the best use of existing capacity

while considering the public benefits these investments offer. We will also need to consider what 

role government should play in ensuring that American workers have the skills and information 

needed to ensure the most efficient use of existing capacity and emerging technologies.

Policymakers will also need to work with the private sector, when appropriate and mutually 

beneficial, to expand capacity and improving the efficient use of our freight infrastructure.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 77

We will also need to consider how local policies, constraints, and investments may affect the 

performance of regional and national networks. Locally-driven decisions about freight capacity can

create regional competition that leads to inefficient national investments. The decisionmaking 

structure for critical freight networks varies from locale to locale, and the authority is often held by 

a mixture of public and private, state, local, and regional entities, that may represent one or many 

modes of freight movement. The Alameda Corridor, a 20-mile grade-separated rail corridor that 

runs directly to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach to the rail mainlines near downtown Los 

Angeles, took nearly 20 years of coordinated efforts among public and private stakeholders across 

the region to become a reality. Completed in 2002, the project reduced travel times along the 

corridor from 4 hours to 30 minutes.

Many of the worst freight bottlenecks are located on the roads surrounding major urban areas and 

near coastal container ports and large intermodal terminals, where freight traffic and passenger 

traffic compete for capacity. As the population and economies of urban areas grow, demand for 

freight on already congested access gateways to ports, road, rail, and aviation infrastructure is 

likely to increase. How can regions plan for increasing traffic and resolve conflicts that may arise 

between the transportation demands for freight, passengers, businesses, and local residents?

As we have seen with efforts to accommodate increasing domestic energy production, meeting the 

transportation needs of growing regional economies is not without challenges and controversy. 

There are serious tradeoffs that need to be considered, especially when societal goals conflict. 

Policymakers have a significant role to play in assessing those tradeoffs to set policies and 

regulatory standards that effectively address issues of economic development, public safety, and 

environmental sustainability. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 78

Public agencies will need to develop policies and regulations that address those risks and improve 

the resilience of our freight system. Policy options for improving the efficiency of our freight 

transportation system and mitigating the negative impacts of freight movements include:

 Establishing strategic freight funding programs that target freight bottlenecks.

 Encouraging private investment in freight infrastructure.

 Adopting policies that shift freight demand to safer, more environmentally sustainable

modes.

 Using congestion pricing to manage demand.

 Investing in ports and intermodal facilities to make intermodal shipping more efficient.

 Incorporating freight planning into transportation planning and regional economic 

development decisions.

 Incentivizing the adoption of alternative-fuel and electric vehicles by freight companies.

 Supporting research into automation technologies.

 Investing in infrastructure to support the safe and efficient movement of energy supplies.

These policy options are explored in further depth in the conclusion of this report.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 79

References

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Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 80

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Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 81

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(http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm) 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Things 82

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(http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/annual/pdf/nga13.pdf) 

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How We Move Better
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Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 85

Introduction

Over the next 30 years, advances in data collection, computing, navigation systems, 

communication and mobile technologies, and robotics have the potential to dramatically change 

the way we travel and deliver goods and services. Technologies emerging today promise to make 

our future transportation system safer, more reliable, more efficient, more environmentally 

sustainable, and more convenient. Many of the most transformative technology applications for 

transportation have been developed in other sectors and for other purposes. One magazine 

recently declared the smartphone the “most important transportation innovation of the decade.” 

Governments have provided essential contributions through research, regulation, and policy to 

support the development of a number of technologies important to transportation, such as GPS, 

the Internet, and fuel-efficient vehicles, vessels and aircraft. These inventions have boosted the 

American economy, creating jobs for American workers and improving our quality life. Still, 

governments are often perceived as “behind the curve”—too slow to adopt promising technologies, 

and imposing unwarranted barriers on beneficial innovations. 

As technology continues to advance, governments will need to anticipate, accommodate, and 

incentivize innovation. At the same time, as new technologies increase our reliance on ever more 

sophisticated and complex systems, governments will need to understand and mitigate the risks 

associated with new technologies to ensure that our transportation system remains safe and 

secure.

This section summarizes broad, crosscutting technological trends that are transforming 

transportation.
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Global Positioning System

GPS, initially developed for the military, is now used to access accurate location, timing, and 

navigation services by transportation users, from drivers to cyclists to ocean-going cargo vessels. 

With the strong support of the federal government positioning, navigation, and timing services 

have become widely available. 

America’s GPS is no longer the only global navigation satellite system—Russia’s Global Navigation 

Satellite System is now operational and Europe’s Galileo soon may be. Nations such as China, 

Japan, and India are planning their own. Private systems combine other data sources, such as celltower locations and Wi-Fi signals, to provide location information. Future travelers will be able to 

access many of these systems from the same device, enabling speedier and more accurate location 

fixes, while providing some measure of redundancy. Today, GPS provides positioning, navigation, 

and timing information to all takers.

GPS is increasingly yielding benefits for transportation. For example, it allows drivers to choose 

routes based on traffic, and allows transit riders to know when the next bus or train is arriving. 

Fleet managers of freight companies, transit systems, and school buses are able to track vehicles in 

real time, maximize vehicle utilization, and select efficient, reliable routes. Applied to aviation, 

GPS can help pilots navigate, and allow planes to fly more efficient routes more safely; it is already 

doing so in Alaska. In marine transportation, it improves the efficiency and security of ports by 

allowing for the identification and tracking of vessels and containers. Rail systems use GPS for 

asset management, tracking, and positive train control. For truck safety enforcement, GPS allows 

inspection sites to be mobile. In the future, GPS may play a large role in enabling the development 

of automated vehicles and payment systems, which are discussed below. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 87

Data collection and analysis will become cheap and widespread. The information that agencies and 

companies need to make transportation decisions has never been easier to acquire, understand, 

and use. The billions of machines networked together by the Internet are constantly collecting 

data, much of which can be useful to all types of transportation agencies, as well as freight and 

logistics companies. 

Emerging data source and tools have the potential to improve how public agencies make 

investment and operational decisions, set standards and engage the public. For example, mobile 

applications can allow citizens to report potholes allowing local agencies to quickly respond to road 

maintenance needs. Sensors on transit, taxi, and truck fleets can monitor where vehicles drive, 

how fast they are being driven, and when maintenance is required. The same technologies can be 

applied to planes, trains and vessels.

Among their many uses, GPS and smartphones allow for automatic no-hands tracking, replacing 

the frequent written journal entries traditionally used by shippers and carriers. Data can be 

collected from commercial providers, or volunteers, across all modes, even biking and walking. 

Data can also be collected in the field. For example, license-plate scanners and wireless signal 

detection can collect the data needed to model traffic movement and demand at lower costs and 

higher volumes than traditional, manual methods. 

In a “big data” world, public agencies will need to develop their 

capacity to collect, store, analyze, and report data. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 88

Data are increasingly easy to share and use, thanks to open-source software and open-data 

standards. For example, it is now routine to share transit schedule and route information, making 

it possible for software developers and researchers to work with transit agencies across the globe. 

Defining the public sector’s role in collecting, formatting, and sharing data will require input and 

support from stakeholders and potential beneficiaries.

The widespread use of GPS also raises serious privacy concerns. Data security and privacy will 

continue to be concerns that limit transportation applications. Freight companies, airlines—

actually, anyone who keeps information private to retain a competitive advantage—may be 

reluctant to release their data. Regulators, researchers, and other data users will need to establish 

agreements and systems to protect certain data. If agencies want to continue to use information 

collected from individual travelers, it will be critical to remove characteristics from data that would 

allow for personal identification of individuals. Malicious thefts or inadvertent releases can erode 

public trust and make it difficult or impossible to use modern data science. 

Payment will be easy, frequent, and inexpensive. Collecting user fees to fund transportation has often 

been a cumbersome process, whether it has involved bus riders converting change to tokens, or 

drivers stopping to pay highway tolls. New payment and fee collection technologies are reducing 

queuing for collection, increasing the efficiency of collection, and allowing user fees to reflect true 

user costs.

These technologies can take many forms. Built-in and standardized hardware radio tags for vehicle 

tolls and swipe cards for transit riders have been implemented across the country, but require 

users to install dedicated hardware. Seamless payment that uses smartphone apps or license-plate 

readers are beginning to roll out, and are becoming popular with both users and implementers.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 89

New methods of payment will enable transportation agencies to develop more targeted user-fee-based 

revenue streams. It is now technically feasible for a transportation agency to charge each road user 

for their use of infrastructure and their contributions to congestion, emissions, and wear and tear 

on roads, by using GPS, smartphones, image-recognition software, and automated payment 

systems. In comparison, fuel taxes, sales taxes, and general-fund revenues are crude instruments,

and physical toll infrastructure has significant costs of collection. To alleviate privacy concerns and 

incentivize voluntary citizen participation in more efficient and targeted automated payment 

systems, transportation agencies could use incentive-based programs, similar to auto insurance 

programs that offer discounts to drivers who use devices that track how safely they appear to 

drive.

The vast majority of Americans now have access to the Internet; more than half of all Americans 

now own a smartphone; and many vehicles are equipped with on-board computers and GPS 

navigation systems. These systems can be used to access detailed maps, real-time travel 

conditions, and up-to-the-minute service schedules that help travelers make decisions about how, 

when, and where to travel. 

The widespread adoption of traveler information systems is 

making travel easier and more convenient.
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The relative openness of major smartphone platforms has allowed developers to release 

applications useful across all modes. A range of tasks—from obtaining walking directions to the 

nearest bus stop, to hailing taxis—is made easier due to the widespread adoption of smartphones. 

Mobile-phone apps are being used by public agencies to monitor air and vessel traffic and 

infrastructure conditions. Freight companies use mobile phones and tablets to log driver hours 

and monitor packages. Phone GPS data are used to collect and provide real-time information on 

traffic conditions. Smartphones are increasingly being used to make or certify payments for 

transportation services. 
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3D printing has the potential to disrupt traditional 

supply chains and counteract the growth of imports 

by reducing the need for large-scale manufacturing, 

transportation, and storage. 3D printing is a 

groundbreaking technology that allows 

manufacturers to render three-dimensional 

objects from a digital file with great precision 

using a laser or an extruder to build an object layer 

by layer. Engineers have been using 3D printers 

for more than a decade, but 3D printers are now 

becoming more precise and more amenable to 

using a broader range of materials. Desktop 3D 

printers have now been made commercially 

available and their costs are dropping, leading to 

more widespread consumer use. 3D printers could 

make it possible to manufacture customized 

products and parts more quickly and 

inexpensively.

Just as online shopping now makes it possible for companies to bypass traditional storefronts, 3D 

printing will allow for more localized production and decentralized manufacturing. It may also lead 

to an increase in the delivery of raw materials for 3D manufacturing. In the service parts industry, 

3D printing may result in decreasing shipments of finished parts.In health care, 3D printing is 

being used to manufacture customized hearing aids, braces, and even artificial limbs. The potential 

effects of 3D printing on certain industries—electronics, automobiles, medicine—are great, but 

the future of such a novel technology is difficult to predict. Continued advances in 3D printing 

could impact freight transportation by shortening supply chains for high-value, urgent products, 

reducing demand for air freight in particular.
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Robotics research is advancing across all transportation modes. Advances in robotics are useful in 

many broad applications. An algorithm that uses camera feeds to detect humans may have been 

developed to protect factory workers, but can be just as useful when applied to security cameras on 

a transit platform, or to the sensors on an automated vehicle. Billions of dollars in military,

commercial, and academic research have brought about unmanned, commercially-available aerial 

and ground vehicles and watercraft. Robotics and automation research is poised to change much of 

how transportation functions. 

The advent of automated ground vehicles can change 

the way transportation agencies perform operations 

and maintenance, and deploy fleets and utility 

vehicles. Many tasks associated with construction, and 

road operations and maintenance, can be performed 

by either automated vehicles or remotely-operated 

vehicles. Automated climbing robots for aviation radio 

towers, autonomous railroad track measurers, and 

fully autonomous pipeline inspection gauges are all 

under development, with some already available 

commercially.
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Automation will have a potentially transformative impact across all transportation modes, increasing 

productivity, improving safety, and enhancing the capacity of existing infrastructure. It may also 

have a profound impact on the transportation workforce, changing the skills required to manage, 

operate, and maintain transportation vehicles and systems. The applications and effects of 

automation and other technological advances on the transportation system are described in 

further detail below.

Prototype Automated Inspection Vehicle
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Modal Advances

Aviation

The Next Generation Air Transportation System 

(NextGen) will modernize air traffic control 

nationwide. The Federal Aviation Administration 

(FAA) controls and regulates the national airspace 

system. NextGen is an upgrade from the earlier 

ground-based radar navigation system to satellitebased navigation technology that is expected to 

make aviation safer and more efficient. Although 

NextGen is a long-term and complex undertaking, 

we are already witnessing very significant benefits from it—giving pilots and controllers more 

flexibility at certain airports, reducing wake-based separation standards at others, and reducing 

congestion in some busy metro areas. 

Many of these gains will be enabled by new technologies, policies and procedures, such as systems 

to coordinate information exchange, and GPS-based aircraft surveillance and communications to 

improve safety. The use of GPS-based systems will greatly improve the precision of air traffic 

control operations. Aircraft will be routed to more direct and more efficient paths between origins 

and destinations and will be able to fly more closely spaced, reducing congestion and delays caused 

by congestion, and improving efficiency. Onboard digital communications equipment will improve

communications between the cockpit and air traffic control and allow for enhanced information 

accessibility. Improved air navigation procedures are already being rolled out which allow aircraft 

to use less fuel, saving airlines money and reducing emissions. Still, challenges remain to complete 

the roll-out of NextGen. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 95

Commercial space transportation will become available to the public. Wealthy individuals have 

been able to purchase seats on the Russian Soyuz for many years, but flights are infrequent, cost 

millions of dollars, and require months of training.

New vendors are competing to provide lower cost and more routine private space flight, eventually 

turning this once novel mode of transportation into a reality for many. Established vendors will 

provide cost-effective transportation for critical government or private-sector assets, such as 

satellites. Additionally, space tourism is seen as highly likely at some point in the near future, and 

nearly a thousand tickets have already been purchased. Communities across the country are 

already competing to host this emerging market and have invested public funds in infrastructure 

to support spaceport development.

Initial uses will be suborbital tourism flights, where tourists experience the sights and sensations 

of space for a few minutes. The appeal of a two-hour suborbital flight from the East Coast to Asia 

continues to draw interest and research funds, but it may take decades to become economically 

feasible. Success in the suborbital market is expected to eventually translate into longer orbital 

flights and visits to space stations.

Widespread commercial use of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is imminent. Authorization has 

recently been granted for limited commercial UAS uses, including Arctic pipeline inspection and 

moviemaking. 
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Many of the early missions for civilian UAS will be for 

such purposes as remote sensing and surveillance. 

Larger vehicles capable of carrying large payloads will 

enable more uses, such as spraying farm fields, 

surveying lands and infrastructure, and providing 

radio coverage to broad areas as an alternative to 

satellites. 

Google, Amazon, and DHL have been evaluating 

delivery of packages by unmanned aircraft for several 

years. Remotely-piloted drone deliveries could be 

used to provide high-value and urgent cargo to 

remote and hard-to-reach locations within a decade. 

For example, unmanned aircraft deliveries could be 

used to deliver medical supplies to remote areas after 

a natural disaster. Delivery by unmanned aircraft in 

dense urban environments presents significantly 

greater security, safety, and privacy risks, and will 

likely take longer to develop.

Marine Transportation

Marine automation is increasing efficiency and decreasing crew size. A large vessel that would have 

employed a crew of 25 only a decade ago may be possible to operate with a much smaller crew over 

the next few decades. While this reduces the costs of shipping freight and grants cargo operators 

more flexibility, it could also mean that a ship’s crew has less ability to quickly respond to incidents 

such as spills, groundings, and piracy. Ships could be piloted remotely with a small crew of 

technicians onboard in case of mechanical failure.
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While full automation is still decades away, the signs of the future are on the horizon. In the 

summer of 2014, the U.S. Coast Guard introduced a pilot project to deploy virtual aids to 

navigation as opposed to physical sea buoys. Virtual aids to navigation will help to lay the 

foundation for remotely-operated ships in the future. Likewise, research and development efforts 

are focused on examining barge operations on inland waterways. 

The labor required to load and unload vessels has been decreasing since motorized equipment 

became available at ports. With the advent of containerization, even more cargo transfer functions 

have been automated. These trends continue to enhance the efficiency of cargo handling 

operations and are leading to changes in the skillsets required of the port workforce. Technological 

advances also reduce the cost of shipping and increase flexibility, while also providing the needed 

capacity expansion to handle larger vessel sizes.

Rail Transportation

Positive Train Control (PTC) refers to critical national transportation infrastructure consisting of 

advanced interoperable technologies, which, when fully and properly configured can prevent 

collisions, derailments, and other safety incidents. PTC systems use digital radio communications,

GPS services and other technologies to send and receive a continuous stream of information about 

the location, direction and speed of trains in real time. In this way, PTC helps dispatchers and train 

crews safely and efficiently manage train movements.

In 2008, the Port of Pittsburgh was granted a patent for 

“SmartLock,” a new integration of technologies that allows 

towboats and their tows to pass safely through locks in zero 

visibility.
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Deployment of PTC on critical portions of the nation’s rail transportation network is mandated by 

federal law. Meeting this mandate requires the installation of equipment and technology on 

60,000 miles of Class I freight railroad rights-of-way, and an additional 8,400 miles of track for 

intercity passenger and commuter railroads. Railroads implementing PTC must equip over 22,500 

locomotives, install over 48,000 radios, and modify 23,000 signals and switches. They also must 

secure sufficient radio frequency spectrum and install 22,000 wireless communications towers.

These final two items are subject to Federal Communications Commission approval, in addition to 

the normal regulatory oversight by the Federal Railroad Administration. Implementation of 

interoperable PTC systems at this scale is unprecedented and has been slow due to the enormous 

complexity of the task. Even though railroads continue to make incremental progress towards 

implementation, they will not fully overcome technical and programmatic obstacles by the 

December 31, 2015, deadline mandated by federal law.

New technologies are emerging to monitor the health of tracks and identify locations on the rail 

network that require attention to prevent derailments. These technologies will be mounted to 

trains in operational service so that measurements are made continuously and automatically. 

Other new technology is being installed by the side of the track to monitor the health of every rail 

car that passes. These devices automatically analyze trends in performance so that cars needing 

attention can be taken out of service for maintenance before their condition deteriorates below a 

safe limit.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 99

Advances in high-speed rail technologies could increase the speed and convenience of passenger 

travel. In addition to high-speed locomotives due to emerge in the United States over the coming 

decades, magnetic levitation (maglev) trains—which utilize magnetic forces to lift, guide, and 

propel trains—are a budding technology (though more prominent in some international systems). 

In congested travel corridors, high-speed rail could compete for airline traffic, alleviating aviation 

congestion and boosting regional economies. The investment required to make high-speed rail 

corridors a reality, even if only in our most densely populated areas, is on the order of tens of 

billions of dollars. Public high-speed rail investments have moved forward in California, as have 

investments to improve the speed of trains along the North East Corridor, but sufficient public 

support has not been forthcoming elsewhere.

Motor Vehicles

Three distinct but related streams of technological change and development are occurring 

simultaneously: in-vehicle crash avoidance systems that provide warnings and/or limited 

automated control of safety functions; connected vehicle technologies—vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) 

and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications that support various crash avoidance 

applications; and self-driving vehicles. 

V2V technologies are currently under development that allow nearby vehicles to exchange data on 

their position and use these data to warn drivers of potential collisions. While many new models of 

automobiles currently use sensor-based crash avoidance technologies to provide similar 

functionality (e.g., blind-spot and head-on-collision warnings), V2V technologies are capable of 

warning drivers of potential collisions that are not visible to sensors, such as a stopped vehicle 

blocked from view, or a moving vehicle at a blind intersection. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 100

V2I communications will allow infrastructure, such as traffic signals, to communicate with 

vehicles. V2I systems could be used to send warnings to drivers about weather conditions, traffic, 

upcoming work zones, and even potholes. V2I communications could also create a variety of 

operational and regulatory benefits, such as enabling wireless roadside inspections and helping 

truckers to identify parking spots. V2I technologies could also allow for coordinated signal timing 

and improved parking information systems that could improve traffic flows in urban areas. Data 

from connected vehicle systems could provide traffic management centers with detailed, real-time 

information on traffic flow, speeds, and other vehicle conditions, and allow more rapid response to 

traffic incidents. 

The application of connected vehicle technologies 

presents significant technical and policy challenges to 

public agencies and private partners. These include 

developing the standards and architecture for wireless 

systems, and deploying the systems needed to enable 

V2I communications. Deployment of V2I systems will 

require substantial investments to install and 

maintain roadside equipment. Government is working 

with automakers to develop and deploy V2V systems, 

but technical, legal, and regulatory challenges remain. 

The full benefits of V2V technologies will not be 

achieved until many more automobiles on the roads 

are similarly equipped.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 101

Automated Vehicles 

The automation of motor vehicles is likely, and has the potential to revolutionize ground transportation.

We are on the threshold of a period of dramatic change in the capabilities of, and expectations for, 

the vehicles we drive. Automated vehicles use GPS and sensor systems, including cameras, lasers, 

and radar, to “see” and to navigate through their environment. Partial automation of driving 

functions, such as lane guidance, active cruise control, and automatic braking, have been available 

in luxury vehicles for several years, and are becoming more widespread. With hundreds of millions 

of private and public dollars invested in researching and developing automation features, these 

technologies will become increasingly common in the near future. 

Automated vehicles have the potential to transform our transportation system. There are 

unresolved issues, such as cost considerations and the impact on emissions, but automated 

vehicles may create many benefits, including: 

 Significantly reducing crashes, thereby improving safety, travel time reliability, and 

congestion associated with crashes.

 Enabling real-time route planning, thus improving travel time and reliability.

 Increasing the ability of existing infrastructure to accommodate more vehicles due to 

synchronized traffic flows.

 Improving transportation access to the young, older adults, and people with disabilities.

 Reducing costs associated with delivering freight.

 Freeing up time traditionally spent driving for more productive or recreational activities.

Emerging technologies promise a continuum of vehicle automation, 

from vehicles with no active control systems to self-driving cars.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 102

Research shows that unsafe driving is partly or totally to blame for more than 90 percent of all 

accidents. Unsafe driving behavior—including distracted driving, speeding, reckless driving, and 

driving under the influence—is a common cause of, and contributor to, fatalities and serious 

injuries. Until full vehicle autonomy is achieved, distracted driving will also remain a critical 

concern as the flow of information to the driver from in-vehicle systems and portable electronic 

devices is expected to increase. This information must be managed to ensure safety. 

In 2012, 32,719 people died in traffic crashes; 2.31 million people were injured. Ultimately, 

automation features in vehicles could prevent many of the crashes that are caused by unsafe 

driving, potentially saving tens of thousands of lives. Preventing significant numbers of crashes, in 

addition to relieving the enormous emotional toll on families, will also greatly reduce the 

enormous related societal costs—lives lost, hospital stays, days of work missed, and property 

damage—that cost hundreds of billions of dollars each year.

Eliminating a significant portion of motor vehicle crashes would also reduce congestion. Currently, 

traffic incidents account for about one-third of all delays due to traffic congestion. Congestion 

caused by motor vehicle crashes also leads to wasted fuel and increased pollution. The ability to 

anticipate braking and acceleration in other vehicles will not only reduce crashes—it will also lead 

to additional fuel savings and less vehicle maintenance. 

The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has estimated that if all 

vehicles had forward collision and lane departure warning, blind 

spot assist, and adaptive headlights, about 1 in 3 fatal crashes and 1 

in 5 injury crashes could be prevented.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 103

Automated vehicles might also be able to drive more closely together, increasing highway speeds 

and capacity. A fully automated automobile fleet can potentially increase highway capacity fivefold. In urban areas, automation will increase parking capacity: self-parking cars can park more 

closely together. Congestion could be further reduced as cars spend less time searching for parking 

spaces. Parking apps, including truck parking apps, are already being deployed, and have already 

begun to reduce emissions and improve efficiency.

Automation can vastly increase the use of on-demand car services and reduce the need to own a 

car. This could transform transit services. Automated vehicles could lower transit operating costs, 

allowing for the expansion of routes. Rail transit is likely to be needed in highly dense cities and 

central business districts, but other rail and bus services could see a declining share of passenger 

travel due to the relative convenience of automated vehicle travel. On the other hand, on-demand 

services provide connectivity and last-mile services that work in conjunction with rail and other 

transit services, making line-haul services more efficient. In an age of automated vehicles and big 

data, transit agency models may come to embrace subsidized, automated on-demand car services 

with flexible demand-based routing. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 104

Carnegie Mellon Autonomous Car

A self-driving car 

developed by Carnegie 

Mellon University is one 

demonstration of the 

possibility of autonomous 

vehicles.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 105

Perhaps one of the greatest benefits of automated vehicles from a user perspective is time. The 

average American driver spends almost an hour each day driving. Automated driving could free up 

most of this time. 

By making driving more accessible and convenient, automated driving could increase the number 

of “drivers,” as well as the total number of miles driven. Automated vehicles could also make 

driving more accessible to people with disabilities, the young, and older adults. Currently, slightly 

more than two-thirds of the population is licensed to drive. Between 5 and 10 million people do 

not drive due to disabilities. 

Automated driving may also change where people live and the distances they are willing to travel. 

This could lead to increased settlement of exurban areas, resulting in reductions in agricultural 

land and open space. 

Increased volumes of traffic could also increase the maintenance needs of infrastructure and offset 

efficiency gains, leading to increased emissions. However, vehicles may also be lighter due to the 

reduced risk of crashes, thereby consuming less fuel, and heavier vehicles could be automatically 

routed on roads better able to accommodate them without as much damage to the roads. Thus, the 

overall impacts on maintenance and emissions are uncertain.

Many expect a tiered roll-out of vehicles as driving functions are increasingly automated over the 

next decade. Vehicles that can apply emergency braking or keep a driver in their lane are available 

now. Automated driving on limited-access highways could be an option on luxury vehicles in 

several years. Full automation, where a driver no longer has to steer or adjust speed, could be 

commercially available within the next 20 years.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 106

Despite the technical feasibility and potential benefits, there are a number of barriers to more 

widespread adoption of automated vehicles, including:

 High vehicle costs.

 Public safety and privacy concerns.

 Unresolved regulatory and legal liability issues.

 Security issues.

Automated car features tend to be costly, at least initially, and will likely be first introduced to a 

luxury market. Widespread availability of automated vehicles may be delayed until costs come 

down. Public agencies will also need to determine how to regulate automated vehicles to ensure 

their safety. New performance standards will be needed to ensure that automation systems have 

the ability to recognize hazards and avoid collisions in a wide variety of situations. Other 

standards will be needed to ensure system reliability and security from outside interference. 

Questions abound: How will automated vehicles be licensed? How will legal responsibility be 

determined if an automated vehicle is in a crash? Will automated vehicles be vulnerable to cyberattack due to their reliance on information systems, or could they even be used as weapons? 

Finally, there is the question of how to manage data generated by automated vehicles. Drivers may 

have privacy concerns regarding the generation, ownership, and sharing of vehicle travel data.

Widespread adoption of automated vehicles would have a transformative effect on nearly all 

aspects of transportation. Entire business models and professions would be created, transformed, 

or eliminated as robotic taxis and driverless freight become possible. The broader effects on society 

are subject to debate, with uncertainty surrounding whether automated vehicles will curtail or 

enable sprawling land use patterns. Many of these questions will not be answered until fully 

automated vehicles are commercially available and popular enough to prompt widespread 

adoption. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 107

Technology, Safety, and Security

While many emerging technologies could have major safety and security benefits when applied to 

transportation, in some cases they could also create new vulnerabilities. The safe operation of NextGen,

positive train control, and intelligent transportation systems all depend on secure, reliable digital 

communication infrastructure and systems. Attacking a conventional train signal system requires 

actually being there in person—but, in theory, a transportation control system that is connected 

to the Internet can be attacked from anywhere in the world. One teenager in Poland, for example, 

hacked into a tram system, causing multiple derailments. Frequent hacks into highway dynamic 

message signs are a more benign demonstration of the vulnerability of electronic systems. 

Preventing these attacks will be a major challenge for transportation agencies and companies. 

There are also risks to a future where transportation services depend too heavily on access to GPS 

technologies for operations. Disruptions to service can be created by weather events, demand 

overload, jamming and spoofing by hackers, and excess system demand. The government agencies 

responsible for GPS and the transportation firms and agencies that depend on those systems will 

need to consider ways to mitigate the risks of service disruptions. This may require making 

decisions on how best to maintain legacy navigation systems and capabilities, and/or building 

redundancy.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 108

Increasing automation of vehicles, vessels, trains and aircraft can also result in diminishing ability 

and awareness among operators to respond to incidents when they occur. We have already seen 

several high profile incidents where overreliance on automation features has led to safety failures, 

such as the crash of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 at San Francisco International Airport. Greater 

information flows from on-board or independent systems can also create distractions that increase 

the risk of operator error. Finally, the increasing complexity of automated and interconnected 

systems may make it more difficult for those responsible for the safety and security of these 

systems to detect defects or vulnerabilities in advance of potentially harmful events. 

While the net benefit of new technologies should lead to a safer, more efficient and secure 

transportation system, significant effort and resources will be required to address the 

vulnerabilities raised by reliance on increasingly complex and interdependent systems. Ensuring 

the resilience, safety and security of these systems will require a holistic consideration of security 

issues across the transportation enterprise, from systems engineering, to risk management by 

system administrators, to training and certification of system operators. Greater cooperation 

between national governments will also be essential in combating breaches of security in 

transportation-related systems.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 109

Policy Implications

Continued success will require sustained public and private investment in transportation research and 

development activities. The federal government can play a key role in supporting and promoting 

innovation, and in keeping America on the forefront of new technologies. Federal funding invested 

in transportation research has declined to 0.01 percent of GDP, down from a high of 0.07 percent 

in 1971. Such research has led to breakthroughs in automotive and aviation safety, such as 

connected vehicle technology and NextGen. It has also been instrumental in the advancement of 

alternative fuels technologies, the development of charging stations for electric vehicles, improved 

roadway designs and traffic controls that have saved countless lives, and more durable pavements 

that reduce the need for expensive reconstruction and repair of roads, bridges and runways. By 

sponsoring research, the federal government allows us to understand and plan for the challenges 

facing us and to train the next generation of transportation professionals to help meet those 

challenges. Federally-supported research can also help to ensure that the public and policymakers 

are kept fully informed of the potential benefits and risks of new technologies. 

Transportation innovation may be restricted by the slow pace of legislation and rulemaking. 

Rapidly evolving technology will demand government flexibility: regulations may be necessary, but in 

order to advance and encourage innovation, not prevent it. Government must also ensure the 

primacy of safety as new technologies are implemented. As innovations are developed, we will face

new challenges in confronting the idea of what should, and should not, be regulated.

Public agencies assume many roles in their relationships with transportation technologies: from 

researchers to regulators, from users to developers. This requires a talented workforce, but 

attracting and keeping such a workforce presents major challenges. The evolving role of 

transportation agencies means that they must hire staff with expertise in entirely new disciplines. 

This requires recruiting and training for very specific skills, or at least ensuring that contracts are 

written for these precise skills. It could be difficult for public agencies to develop these capabilities, 

since transportation agencies are not the only employers in the labor market, and wage 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 110

competition for the best-qualified workers is already fierce, especially for in-demand skill sets, 

such as software engineering.

At the international level, the U.S. government will need to ensure that foreign governments do 

not erect regulations or product standards that set unfair standards for U.S. technology. 

Furthermore, because of the competitive nature of international business, if the U.S. government 

seeks to maintain global leadership in developing these technologies, and retain the employment 

opportunities associated with them, regulations and policies need to be structured in a way that 

facilitate the industry’s growth. 

Policy decisions will undoubtedly shape the extent to which technology and data are continually 

incorporated into our already complex transportation systems. Decisionmakers may consider a

variety of policy options, including:

 A regulatory framework that encourages innovation, rather than hinders it, and places a top 

priority on ensuring the safety of the overall transportation system.

 Fostering proactive engagement with those in technology-related industries to help the 

public sector anticipate future technology enhancements.

 Incentivizing a skilled transportation workforce that is increasingly competent in the fields 

of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.

 Requiring that privacy and cybersecurity concerns are adequately addressed in the 

consideration and adoption of new technologies.

These policy options are explored in further depth in the conclusion of this report.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Move Better 111

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How We Adapt
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Introduction

Our climate is changing, producing harsher storms and higher average temperatures. In 2014, we 

experienced the warmest year on record. Droughts and floods have become more frequent, and 

more damaging. The scientific consensus is that these changes are largely the result of human 

activities that have emitted carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere.

These changes have costs and consequences—for our economy, our public health, and our 

infrastructure. While it is difficult to connect climate change to particular weather events, the 

trends are disturbing. Since 1980, the frequency of billion-dollar natural disasters has increased by 

approximately five percent per year, controlling for inflation. In 2012 alone, weather-related 

disasters in the United States were estimated to have cost over $100 billion. At least $2 billion in 

crops and 17,000 jobs have already been lost to the ongoing California drought—the worst 

drought in more than a century. 

Our transportation facilities—our roads, bridges, tunnels, rails, airports, waterways, and ports—

are uniquely vulnerable to damage caused by severe storms, rising sea levels, drought and extremes 

of temperature. These vulnerabilities have become more pronounced as the frequency of these 

events increases. For example, in 2012, Hurricane Sandy caused $700 million in damage to the rail 

infrastructure in four century-old tunnels under New York City, forcing repairs that will disrupt 

service and severely inconvenience riders for years to come. 
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In 2012, transportation sources directly accounted for 28 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

Next to the generation of electricity, which contributes 32 percent of greenhouse gases, the 

transportation sector is the second largest source in the United States. Industrial emissions related 

to the manufacture of transportation vehicles and the construction of infrastructure add to the 

total contribution of the transportation sector to emissions. 

However, the transportation sector is making major strides: new fuels, new vehicles, and new 

policies that can help to reduce emissions. New types of fuels that promise to dramatically reduce 

emissions for automobiles, trains, planes, and vessels are emerging; the fuel efficiency of new 

vehicles is improving, and Americans are driving less on average than they have in nearly a decade. 

Recently, fuel standards for new cars were raised for the first time in decades, and fuel standards 

were set for trucks for the first time ever. These regulations are expected to increase the fuel 

efficiency of vehicles by approximately 50 percent over the next decade.

New regulations, policies, incentives, and market forces to reduce emissions may all be needed, as 

will increased research and development of alternative fuels and vehicle types. Policymakers and 

planners may also need to find ways to discourage energy-intensive land use patterns and 

transportation choices. 

The next generation of Americans could decide to make significantly different lifestyle choices 

than do current Americans—for reasons of cost or preference—that substantially reduce their 

environmental footprint. However, it is unlikely that just one measure—technological advances, 

market forces, or the altruism of future generations—will, by itself, solve the problem of climate 

change; we will have to combine multiple measures to make progress.
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Introducing new policies might be difficult, but they may blunt the expected long-term economic, 

social, and environmental consequences of climate change. This chapter will explore the effects of 

climate change on the transportation system and the efforts already underway to combat it.

Impacts of Change

Human activities contribute to climate change by adding carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping 

gases to the atmosphere. When we burn fuel—gasoline to power our car, oil to heat our home, coal 

to produce electricity—we produce carbon emissions. These emissions cause the surface 

temperature of the Earth to rise and increase the acidity of the oceans, changing the weather, 

threatening species, and jeopardizing crops. 

Severe weather and temperature changes associated with our changing climate, are damaging our 

infrastructure, and making travel conditions increasingly unreliable. Each major weather event 

brings with it disruption and delay across our surface, air, and marine transportation systems. 

Transportation agencies are forced to scramble and improvise in order to patch and repair after big 

storms, often with enormous financial and productivity losses, as well as tremendous 

inconvenience for the average commuter. 

Higher Temperatures

By 2045, much of the United States is projected to experience average temperatures that are 1-2 

degrees Fahrenheit higher than today’s averages. This may not sound like a significant increase, 

but the negative consequences of this change would be substantial and wide-reaching. The 

frequency of heat waves will increase. Northern areas are expected to grow wetter, while southern 

and western areas are expected to grow drier. Sea levels will rise due to the loss of glaciers and 

polar ice.
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Higher average temperatures will raise maintenance costs across all modes. High temperatures 

accelerate the deterioration of pavement on roads and runways, and cause failures of railroad 

tracks. Heavy trucks are more prone to tire blowouts in conditions of high heat, and 

transportation costs will increase as more refrigeration is needed for perishable items. Higher 

temperatures would significantly increase the frequency of restrictions on aviation operations, 

particularly at high altitude airports. Extreme heat also impairs the operation of aircraft. In 2013, 

more than a dozen commercial flights from Phoenix were canceled due to extreme heat.
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Increasing temperatures may cause rail tracks to buckle, which could result in dangerous and costly 

derailments, and could increase the costs of rail maintenance, causing delays during extreme heat. 

Track buckling and other problems blamed on extreme heat caused more than $77 million in 

damage to American railroads between 2010 and 2013. Extreme heat could also increase 

evaporation, lowering water levels in the Great Lakes and our nation’s waterways, reducing

navigability draft for vessels, forcing them to carry less cargo, resulting in increased freight costs.

Severe Weather and Sea-Level Rise 

Climate change will make severe weather, such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, and hurricanes, more 

frequent, increasing damage to infrastructure and reducing the reliability of our transportation 

system. Major storms have become more common across the globe since the early 1950s, including 

more intense winter storms that track northward and more damaging hurricanes and tropical 

storms. 

By 2045, projections indicate that global sea levels will rise another six inches to one foot over 

current levels. Sea-level rise, coupled with a higher frequency of severe weather, will make lowlying infrastructure increasingly vulnerable to flooding from storm surges, and may impede the 

clearance of vessels under bridges that were not designed for higher sea levels. 
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Much of our transportation infrastructure is designed to withstand a 100-year storm—a storm of 

such severity that it is only has a one percent chance of occurring annually. By 2045, storms of this 

severity are likely to happen more frequently, leading to frequent weather-related outages and 

repairs. Flooding caused by rising sea levels and storms could force tunnels, subway stations, lowlying roads, rail lines and marine cargo facilities to be relocated or even abandoned. Governments 

may divert funds to relocating infrastructure and completing weather-related repairs—

inconveniencing the public with closures, detours, and disruptions.
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There are 60,000 miles of coastal roads in America that are exposed to flooding from heavy rain 

and storm surges. Low-lying road infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to storm surges. During 

Hurricane Katrina in 2005, a 27-foot storm surge occurred along the Bay St. Louis coast in 

Mississippi, washing out roads, bridges, railroad tracks—and entire neighborhoods. 
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Even relatively small sea-level changes will increase the vulnerability of infrastructure, particularly 

in areas that are unaccustomed to flooding from storm surges. For example, infrastructure in San 

Francisco and New York City may be more susceptible to damage from storm surges than cities in 

the Gulf Coast, where hurricanes occur more frequently and infrastructure has been designed to be 

resilient to the impacts of these storms. 

Bridges, because they often cross or are near bodies of water, are vulnerable to storm surges. 

Powerful waves stress super- and sub-structures, causing bridge spans to shift or even be unseated. 

Storm surges may also cause debris, vehicles, and buildings to collide with bridges and marine 

facilities. 

Low-lying coastal and tidal-river airports are likely to suffer infrastructure damage from 

increasingly intense storms and sea level rise, which both can contribute to greater storm surge. 

Thirteen of the 47 largest airports in America are within reach of moderate-to-high storm surges, 

including all three major New York-area airports. Serving a region of 1.3 million people, Louis 

Armstrong International Airport in New Orleans is the lowest-lying airport in America, at 1.7 feet 

below sea level. Increased frequency of severe weather will also decrease the overall reliability of air 

travel as airline operations are disrupted and delays ripple throughout our entire aviation system.

A two-foot rise in sea level could submerge more than 600 miles of 

track along the East Coast, and some of the busiest airports in 

America.
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Like airports, rail yards are often located in low-lying areas near water. The proximity of rail 

infrastructure and rolling stock to shorelines makes them vulnerable to damage during and after 

intense storms. Hurricane Katrina caused nearly $90 million in damage to rail assets throughout 

the affected area, and Amtrak service east of New Orleans into Florida remains suspended almost 

10 years later. In Vermont in 2011, Tropical Storm Irene damaged more than 200 miles of rail and 

six rail bridges, with total damage of more than $20 million. 

Ports are also vulnerable to storm surges. Severe storms and storm surges can damage 

infrastructure, equipment and goods temporarily stored at ports, and can disrupt fuel supplies; 

this threat is particularly acute in areas in the Gulf and along the East Coast, where intense storms 

will likely become more common by 2045. In fact, seven of the 10 largest ports (by freight 

tonnage) are located on the Gulf Coast. 

Storms can also create movements in sediment and debris that reduce the navigability of shipping 

channels. The Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet was closed to commercial shipping after its depth fell 

to 22 feet—restricting access for large vessels—following Hurricane Katrina. A two-foot rise in sea 

level could force a change in shipping routes, and might prompt huge new investments in 

modifying infrastructure to allow for vessel clearance. As an example, the Bayonne Bridge, which 

connects New Jersey with Staten Island, is currently being modified to provide additional 

clearance for post-Panamax size vessels, at an estimated cost of $1 billion.

The likelihood of increased flooding and storm related power outages may impact energy 

transported by pipeline. Pipelines are generally constructed inland such that coastal flooding will 

not likely impact safety or the environment. However, pipelines located offshore and around the 

Gulf Coast could be subject to great stresses, making failure more likely.
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The burden of weather-related damage is borne mostly in the immediate area of a storm, but the 

effects are felt widely, as shipping and personal travel alike is disrupted. Substantial public money 

has been dedicated to cleaning up damage from recent major storms, and such costs are expected 

to rise as the effects of climate change become more pronounced. Creating ‘resilient’ infrastructure 

is increasingly important in order to allow our transportation system to withstand and recover 

from weather events.
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U.S. DOT Funding Builds Resiliency in the Wake of Superstorm Sandy 

In the coming decades, climate change will result in more frequent severe weather. At the same 

time, sea level rise is already increasing the vulnerability of low-lying infrastructure to flooding 

from storm surges. Superstorm Sandy, for example, produced massive flooding that forced 

transportation agencies to suspend more than 40 percent of all transit service in America, 

primarily in the New York-New Jersey region. 

Since Superstorm Sandy, America has made great progress in rebuilding its damaged 

transportation assets, particularly transit systems. However, to help prepare for the continued 

impacts of climate change and the potential for stronger storms, the U.S. DOT recently 

awarded $3.59 billion in grants to 40 transit projects in areas affected by Superstorm Sandy. 

These projects include resilience work such as sealing street-level vents and manholes; 

protecting underground pump rooms, and shielding underground facilities that deliver power 

throughout the subway system. While many of these projects will be invisible to riders, they 

will help the New York-New Jersey region withstand more frequent and severe storms. In the 

long term, these proactive projects will also save taxpayer dollars in repairs to transit services if 

and when another storm hits. 

Although these disaster relief funds are concentrated in the Northeast, the wide-ranging 

impacts of Superstorm Sandy demonstrate the tremendous scale of the transportation 

investment needed nationwide. Beyond transit, severe flooding and storm damage also 

threaten highways, tunnels, rail lines, airports, and other critical assets across the nation. In 

order to improve the resilience of the transportation system, agencies must not only recover 

from the last storm, but also rebuild to withstand the next one.
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Transportation Emissions

The effects of climate change on our transportation infrastructure are being felt today. We know 

that carbon emissions are a major cause of climate change, and that transportation is a major 

contributor to carbon emissions through the burning of petroleum-based fuels. So how is the 

transportation sector reducing carbon emissions?

Almost all (95 percent) of the world’s 

transportation energy comes from petroleumbased fuels, largely gasoline and diesel, which 

are a major source of greenhouse gas 

emissions. Globally, transportation accounts 

for approximately 13 percent of all 

greenhouse gas emissions. In the United 

States, where per capita levels of driving are 

higher than in other countries, transportation 

directly accounts for 28 percent of all such 

emissions. 

In 2012, American automobiles accounted for 

10 percent of all the oil consumed in the 

world, but their global share is falling over 

time as oil consumption and automobile use 

increases in emerging markets, such as China 

and India. 
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Fuel Efficiency

Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards have had a significant positive impact on the 

fuel efficiency of light duty vehicles. First enacted by Congress in 1975, CAFE standards reduce 

energy consumption by increasing the fuel economy of cars and light trucks. When first enacted, 

these standards raised the fuel economy of light duty vehicles significantly, but the standards 

remained unchanged for nearly 25 years. The standards were updated in 2011 and they are now 

scheduled to rise from 32.7 miles per gallon in 2012 to 47.2 miles per gallon in 2025. 

The automobile industry has already taken steps 

to meet the new CAFE standards earlier than 

required by the regulations. Approximately 28 

percent of vehicles sold in 2013 met the most 

stringent greenhouse gas targets for 2016, 

accelerating efforts to reduce carbon emissions 

and the pace of climate change. Of course, CAFE 

standards apply to new vehicles only, so the effect 

on the average emissions of all cars on the road is 

a function of the number of new cars on the road. 

Today, fleet turnover takes about 14 years.

Heavy trucks account for 22 percent of 

transportation emissions, and diesel-related 

emissions have more than doubled over the past 30 years. This is more than three times the rate of 

increase for cars and light trucks. Increases in truck emissions outpaced increases in truck tonmiles, meaning that truck freight movement actually became less energy efficient. This occurred 

despite improvements in engine efficiency, trailer aerodynamics, and truck tires. Operational 

factors, such as the growth in small, just-in-time shipments, and increasing congestion and idling, 

might explain some of the loss in efficiency.
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Greenhouse gas and fuel efficiency standards have recently been expanded to cover medium- and 

heavy-duty trucks. By 2018, new combination trucks will be required to achieve a 20 percent 

reduction in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Tighter standards for these vehicles 

for model years after 2018 are due to be proposed by March 2015 and finalized a year later.
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Other transportation modes—including rail, aviation, pipeline, and maritime—make up the 

remaining 17 percent of transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions. Aviation activities 

accounted for eight percent of domestic transportation-related emissions in 2012. 

Commercial airlines achieved efficiencies by improving the fuel economy of their fleet and 

increasing the number of passengers per flight. The FAA is working with industry to accelerate the 

development and commercial deployment of environmentally promising new aircraft and engine 

technologies. Improvements to the design of aircraft and aircraft engines will likely continue to 

improve their energy efficiency. When fully implemented, NextGen will allow planes to fly more 

direct routes, further improving efficiency and reducing emissions. 

Other modes have also reduced emissions. Stricter regulatory requirements have been enacted for 

maritime emissions. Marine vessels and rail locomotives have adopted more energy efficient 

engines and designs. The energy efficiency of trains has increased by 50 percent since 1980 and 

will likely continue to increase as railroads put more efficient locomotives into service and make 

operational improvements. 

CO2 emissions from commercial aircraft rose by three percent 

between 1990 and 2012, while the number of U.S. carrier aircraft 

departures increased by over 40 percent over the same period.
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Curbing emissions of methane is critical to our overall effort to address global climate change. 

Methane currently accounts for roughly 9 percent of domestic greenhouse gas emissions and has a 

global warming potential that is nearly 25 times greater than carbon dioxide. Methane is a primary 

component of natural gas and leaks in natural gas distribution pipelines are a significant source of 

methane emissions. These leaks are most likely to occur from damage and corrosion of older 

pipelines made from cast iron and unprotected steel. Currently, there are more than 90,000 miles 

of gas distribution mains made from these materials. Improving the monitoring of methane 

emissions and replacing aging and leaking pipes is critical to reducing methane emissions from 

natural gas pipelines.

Over the next 30 years, higher regulatory standards are expected to spur continued improvements 

in fuel efficiency for cars and trucks. In recent years, high fuel prices have given individuals and 

private firms strong incentives to purchase vehicles with better fuel economy. But if gas prices 

decline in the coming decades, will regulatory standards need to be strengthened? Additional 

government policies or regulations could provide stronger incentives to accelerate the 

development and adoption of energy efficient transportation. 

Alternative Energy for Transportation

In recent years a number of ‘alternative’ fuels, many of which emit fewer pollutants than do 

petroleum-based fuels, have emerged as economically competitive alternatives. These include 

biomass fuels, natural gas, and hydrogen. In addition, hybrid vehicles are increasingly popular, and 

plug-in electric vehicles are breaking into the commercial market. 

Advances in technology, volatile oil prices, public concern about climate change, and expanding 

recharging/refueling infrastructure have increased the market appeal of alternative fuel, hybrid 

electric, and all-electric vehicles. The use of alternative fuels in all modes is gradually increasing. 

Aggressive investment and innovation could reduce the use of conventional gas and diesel 

combustion engines to less than 10 percent of the passenger vehicle market by 2045.
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Hybrid and Plug-In Electric Vehicles

Hybrid electric vehicles were successfully introduced into the passenger car market in the late 

1990s. Hybrid vehicles use regenerative braking and an internal combustion engine to charge a 

battery. They are significantly more fuel efficient than are non-hybrid vehicles, and increasingly 

popular with the public. The fleet of hybrid electric vehicles in the United States is the largest in 

the world. Approximately 500,000 hybrid vehicles were sold in 2013; one in every 30 light-duty 

vehicles sold was a hybrid vehicle. 
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Plug-in electric vehicles run on electricity stored in rechargeable battery packs. Currently, plug-in 

electric vehicles take time to recharge and their range between charges is limited by their battery 

storage capacity. Typically, electric cars can travel approximately 100 miles on 30-40 kilowatt 

hours of electricity, the equivalent of more than 100 miles per gallon. Some high-end commercial 

plug-in vehicles can travel as far as 300 miles on a single charge.

Increases in battery storage capacity will almost certainly expand the market for electric vehicles. 

To be a widely viable transportation mode, however, plug-in electric vehicles require investments 

in recharging infrastructure, akin to our current network of gas stations. Major cities and regions 

have already installed plug-in stations, including Boston, Anaheim, Seattle and Pasadena. In 

September 2014, ‘National Plug-In Day’ attracted participation from 115 cities. 

Due in part to their lower market share, electric and hybrid vehicles cost more to purchase than 

conventional fuel vehicles, although they can offer potential operational savings, since they do not 

require gasoline.

In 2013, nearly 100,000 plug-in electric vehicles and 500,000 hybrid 

electric vehicles were sold.
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Electric vehicle motors are more efficient than internal combustion engines, but the 

environmental benefits of electric vehicles depend, in part, on the source of their electricity. 

Although electric vehicles produce no tailpipe emissions, the electricity on which they run is 

produced by power plants, which vary considerably in their carbon intensity. According to the EPA, 

coal-fired plants are among the most carbon-intensive sources of electricity and are the source of 

39 percent of the electricity generated in the United States. In regions that depend on coal-fired 

plants for electricity, the use of electric vehicles may not result in significantly lower carbon 

emissions. 

Biofuels

Biofuels can be used to power every mode of transportation. Bioethanol can be produced from 

corn, sugar cane, sugar beet and other cereals. Biodiesel can be manufactured from vegetable oils, 

animal fats, or recycled restaurant grease. Ethanol, the most popular biofuel, was blended into 

gasoline as early as the late-1970s. Since then its volume has increased from one percent in 2001 

to 10 percent of domestic gasoline consumption in 2011. 

Producing ethanol and certain other biomass fuels requires the use of machinery, fertilizers, and 

land clearing, all of which can lead to increased carbon in the atmosphere. Depending on the 

feedstock and production process, some biofuels can emit even more greenhouse gas than some 

fossil fuels. Ethanol derived from food crops, such as corn, can lead to higher global food prices. 

Currently, biofuels require subsidies and other market interventions to compete economically with 

petroleum and natural gas-based fuels. Today, most ethanol is derived from corn and cane sugar, 

however, research is underway on the conversion of non-food based crops such as crop residue 

(e.g., corn stalks), switch grass, and algae that are believed to have greater potential to reduce 

greenhouse gas emissions.
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Hydrogen

Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles produce no tailpipe greenhouse gas emissions and are highly efficient. 

Unlike electric vehicles, they can be quickly refueled. Toyota recently announced that it will begin 

selling cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells in Japan. However, for hydrogen to become a viable fuel 

source for passenger and freight vehicles in the United States, it would require significant 

investments in production, distribution, and refueling infrastructure. Technical challenges for 

safely storing fuel and producing affordable fuel cells remain, and hydrogen, like biofuels, requires 

energy to produce. To encourage automakers to produce vehicles and reduce statewide auto 

emissions, California has recently begun investing millions of dollars to establish hydrogen fuel 

cell stations throughout the state. As with biofuels, research is underway to overcome challenges 

to the economic viability of hydrogen-fueled vehicles, as well as to study uses of hydrogen in the 

marine industry.

Liquid and Compressed Natural Gas

Liquid and compressed natural gas (CNG) are fossil fuels, but they burn cleaner than conventional 

gasoline or diesel due to their lower carbon content. The recent natural gas boom has reduced 

liquid natural gas (LNG) prices significantly, so that the price of LNG is now approximately half the 

price of diesel. As a result, natural gas vehicles have become an increasingly attractive alternative, 

particularly for centrally-fueled fleets that operate within a limited area. Public transit agencies 

have already invested heavily in CNG vehicles and infrastructure. In addition, some private 

trucking and delivery firms have begun to invest in natural gas vehicle fleets. UPS now has nearly 

1,000 natural gas powered delivery trucks in its fleet.

In 2013, one in five transit buses used compressed natural gas or 

liquid natural gas.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Adapt 138

Other transportation modes and industries could also adopt compressed natural gas as a primary 

fuel, and may eventually do so. Locomotives that have been converted to natural gas are currently 

being tested by several U.S. railroads. However, converting any type of vehicle fleet to natural gas 

requires significant investment and is not without risk and complication, including the fact that 

existing fueling infrastructure is limited. Furthermore, similar to the production of biofuels, the 

extraction of natural gas can also result in significant methane leakage (a major contributor to 

climate change) and cause water pollution.

The use of natural gas for the propulsion of marine vessels is already well underway, at least in part 

as a result of strict international maritime regulations requiring the reduction of maritime 

emissions. At present, the American domestic maritime industry is building vessels that will be 

powered by LNG.

Mode Shift 

Over the past decade, many communities throughout America have adopted policies to encourage 

Americans to reduce carbon emissions by driving less. Although they are not viable options for 

every trip, walking and bicycling burn no fuel. Freight rail is significantly more efficient per tonmile than truck haulage and other freight modes, and transit options are often more efficient per 

passenger mile than driving alone. In general, transit options become more efficient the more 

people they carry. Increased use of these modes as an alternative to driving could lead to a 

reduction in carbon emission levels.
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Today, however, the use of alternative modes of transportation is often not a viable alternative for 

many trips. Limited facilities and services for alternative modes, and a legacy of auto-oriented 

planning and design in many cities, make shifting travel demand to more energy-efficient modes 

challenging. A lack of sidewalks and bike paths in many communities can make walking and cycling 

feel unsafe—even for short trips. While more Americans than ever live in metropolitan areas, only 

slightly more than half of all Americans have access to public transit. Intercity rail is a competitive 

alternative to flying or driving in only a few corridors. 

Many Americans live in suburban areas and less dense cities where homes, jobs, schools, and 

services are spread out. Less dense settlement patterns can make it difficult to walk and cycle to 

destinations. It can also be more expensive to provide transit services in less dense communities. 

Major expansions of rail and public transit systems can cost billions of dollars. As transit services 

have expanded over the past decades to less dense cities such as Los Angeles and Atlanta, and into 

rural areas, transit, as a whole, has become less fuel efficient and more carbon intensive. Local 

zoning and development policies often encourage less dense development, raising the cost of 

transportation infrastructure and services, and discouraging the use of alternative modes.
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Some communities have found ways to provide viable alternatives to driving by providing better 

bicycle lanes, wider sidewalks, and new public transit options. Others have found ways to 

coordinate land use and transportation planning, adopting “smart growth” and sustainable 

development policies that support the use walking, cycling, and less carbon-intensive modes. 

Strategies that support mixed-use development and multiple transportation options and 

discourage sprawling development patterns can enable travelers to reduce trip lengths and 

frequencies, and select more carbon efficient means of travel.
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Policies could be adopted to influence freight mode choices. Rail and water transportation are 

significantly less carbon intensive than transportation by truck. Policies that restrict 

transportation by truck or make it more expensive, or that increase subsidies to rail or maritime 

freight, could make these less carbon intensive modes more economically competitive. For 

example, it is estimated that major investments in rail capacity expansion could increase rail 

tonnage by 10 to 20 percent, potentially reducing carbon emissions by shifting freight from trucks. 

Policy Implications

Our climate is changing as a result of human activity, especially the consumption of fossil fuels. 

Scientists predict that some effects of climate change may be so profound as to be irreversible. The 

actions of policymakers today—in the transportation sector and other parts of society and the 

economy, particularly the production of energy and industrial production—will play a large role in 

determining the climate impacts of our future.

The transportation system uses vast amounts of petroleum, and vehicles and equipment of all 

types emit carbon-based pollution that is damaging our atmosphere. As much as it is a cause, our 

transportation system can also be a casualty of climate change. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions 

from transportation could help to avoid further effects of climate change. At the same time, we 

need to prepare for the major impacts climate change will have on our transportation system. 

U.S. DOT’s 2014 Climate Adaptation Plan describes the actions 

U.S. DOT will take to address potential climate impacts, including 

incorporating climate variability and change impact considerations 

in asset management systems, and ensuring that transportation 

plans and projects address potential climate impacts in order to 

protect federal investments.
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Governments at all levels are beginning to adopt policies to try to slow and adapt to climate 

change. They are incorporating climate change goals in their transportation plans and adopting 

strategies to make transportation systems more resilient to severe weather and sea level rise. At 

the federal level, multiple agencies are investing in research and developing guidance and policies 

to address climate change. Increasing federal fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks is 

helping to reduce emissions in the transportation sector.

We know that vehicles are becoming more efficient, through a combination of technological 

improvements, fuel changes, and behavioral changes. Over the next three decades, higher fuel 

efficiency standards, changes in consumer behavior and the adoption of alternative fuels in the 

U.S. transportation sector are expected to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 10 

percent relative to current levels. But the U.S. is only one country and, as we look out 30 years into 

the future, will likely not be the largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions at any point over the 

next three decades. In the United States, much more could be done to support fuel efficiency 

improvements, encourage the development and adoption of alternative fuels, and support shifting 

travel to more fuel efficient modes. But real success in decreasing greenhouse gas emissions 

globally will require a concerted push of international diplomacy to address this global problem.

Policy options to reduce transportation sector greenhouse gas emissions include:

 Investing in alternative fuel research and infrastructure and the development of fuel 

efficient technologies.

 Subsidizing the purchase of electric and alternative-fuel vehicles.

 Taxing carbon emissions.

 Supporting pricing and operational strategies that reduce congestion on roadways.

 Increasing and extending fuel efficiency standards across all modes.

 Supporting zoning and development policies that discourage sprawl.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Adapt 143

 Encouraging companies to adopt telework policies.

 Investing in transit, rail and maritime infrastructure to support mode shifts.

 Increasing international government-to-government engagement to pursue joint 

commitments to control greenhouse gas emissions. 

It is becoming clear that climate change will have significant impacts on our current transportation 

infrastructure and on the ways we plan for our infrastructure of the future. Planners making 

decisions about infrastructure intended to last 50 or more years now need to plan for climate 

change. This could require making difficult choices about how and where to invest resources to 

harden critical infrastructure and build system resilience to withstand severe weather events. 

Policy options for adapting to climate change include:

 Integrating climate change considerations into asset management and transportation plans.

 Strengthening or abandoning infrastructure that is vulnerable to flooding.

 Setting higher standards for the resilience of yet-to-be constructed infrastructure.

 Adding redundant infrastructure to increase system resiliency.

 Promoting zoning, insurance and disaster recovery policies that discourage development in 

vulnerable areas.

These policy options are explored in further depth in the conclusion of this report.
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References

• (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. “Overview of Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide Emissions.” Accessed January 19, 2015.

(http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/co2.html)

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Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Adapt 145

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How We Align Decisions and Dollars
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Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 150

Introduction

When a bridge collapses, highway traffic stalls, or a tragedy occurs on a major transit line, 

Americans wonder not only what went wrong but whom to hold responsible. When a major road 

project takes years to build or the funding for a new project falls apart, Americans lack a clear line 

of accountability. Every level of government depends on others to ensure the effectiveness of the 

entire system.

The transportation decisions we need to make—to plan, fund and build infrastructure, to safely 

operate our national airspace system, and to make our trains and buses run—have become 

increasingly complex. These decisions often require coordination across multiple government 

agencies and with the private sector, and this coordination can take a lot of time. For example, 

building a new airport runway can easily take more than a decade: such a project requires planning 

and public meetings, billions of dollars of funding and financing from an array of sources at every 

level of government, an extensive environmental review and permits from multiple federal and 

state agencies.

In the future, as metropolitan populations grow, our economy expands and technology changes, it 

is likely that transportation decisionmaking will only become more complex and infrastructure will 

grow more costly. To respond to these trends—to make it possible for projects to still be carried 

out despite increasing complexity—governments will need to become smarter and more 

innovative. They will need to adopt strategies and technologies that allow them to improve 

coordination, streamline processes, increase efficiency and accountability, and make the best 

possible use of time and money. The future calls for more resourceful, responsive and adaptive 

governance that can meet emerging challenges, and that can build and sustain a transportation 

system that meets the needs of current and future generations.
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This chapter describes how the transportation system is financed and governed, and concludes 

with policy options to address finance and governance considerations going forward. What role do 

we expect the various levels of government to play in ensuring the performance of our 

transportation system? How do we fund those different governmental agencies to perform those 

roles? How can we optimize transportation decisionmaking to reduce inefficiency and overlapping 

authorities while still meeting varied local, regional, and national transportation needs? What role 

should the private sector play? These questions are often subject to fierce debates that we do not 

intend to resolve here. Instead, this chapter lays out in broad terms some of the trends underlying 

those debates and seeks to identify possibilities for change in the future.

The Evolving Role of Government 

The Federal Role

The federal government and state and local governments and authorities each have distinct and 

evolving roles to play in supporting our transportation system. Federal involvement in 

transportation has evolved to address a core set of concerns. First, federal transportation 

programs allow for the coordination across jurisdictions at a national scale to ensure consistent 

standards, interconnectivity of facilities and sufficient investment in nationally beneficial 

infrastructure. Second, the federal government is uniquely positioned to raise funds and to spread 

the financial burden of supporting costly and critical transportation services. Finally, the federal 

government can promote national objectives, such as national security, environmental 

sustainability, economic expansion and social welfare and equity.
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Of course, as the history of transportation governance demonstrates, there are limits to federal 

power and effectiveness. Battles over limited resources whether between southern and northern 

states, or urban and rural areas, have often divided Congress and limited federal support for 

initiatives that provided distinctly regional benefits. This holds true across all modes of 

transportation. The first transcontinental railroad was delayed as Congress debated whether the 

route should pass through free or slave states; today, part of the debate over federal transit and 

intercity rail funding is over their limited regional applications. In fact, some federal 

transportation programs allocate resources to areas with less demand that are less able to pay for 

the full value of a particular service, in order to ensure that those areas maintain access to transit, 

rail or aviation services.

As the transportation system has grown and become more complex, the federal role has changed as 

well. Federal support for transportation modes has created constituents with a distinct interest in 

preserving federal support, even while some have promoted more devolution of authority to state 

and local levels. In addition to these challenges, governments at all levels face challenges 

coordinating across modes and jurisdictions, generating sufficient revenues to maintain 

performance, and efficiently allocating resources.

Political conditions also limit the ability of the federal government to dictate how federal aid is 

spent at the state and local levels. Over the past 30 years, states have increasingly been given more 

discretion over how they spend federal dollars and federal discretionary programs have declined as 

a portion of overall funding. The exception is earmarks, which, until recently, members of 

Congress used to directly allocate federal funding to specific local and regional projects. The 

number of Congressional earmarks grew from 10 in 1982 to 6,373 in 2005—accounting for 10 

percent of all federal surface transportation funding. Subsequently, Congress has banned 

earmarks. 
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Coordinating Decisions

Decentralization of decisionmaking can help to ensure investment in projects that local residents 

value. In the 1960s and 1970s, some local citizens and city governments protested against a 

highway planning process that was largely controlled by state highway engineers. At its peak in 

1960s, federally funded construction of highways demolished tens of thousands of housing units 

each year, the majority in low-income and minority communities. The highway revolts, 

demonstrate how centralized decisionmaking can lead to decisions that disregard local concerns 

and cause harm to local communities.

Today, federally-mandated planning and environmental review processes are designed to ensure 

that community stakeholders have a voice in the transportation decisionmaking process. However, 

these same processes are often blamed for slowing or preventing the delivery of needed 

transportation projects and driving up transportation costs. It can take more than a decade to 

complete the planning and environmental review process for an infrastructure project such as a 

new runway, as such projects require comprehensive study and coordination across multiple 

jurisdictions and public agencies.
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As local responsibility over transportation decisionmaking has increased, and the number of local 

governments and independent authorities has grown, the coordination of transportation 

programs has become increasingly difficult. The federal government provides funding for 

transportation and sets policies and goals that serve to guide investments of federal funding, but it 

does not take a direct role in land use decisions. Instead a large number of organizations share 

authority over surface transportation and land use decisions, including state agencies, municipal 

governments, metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), port authorities, transit operators,

the business community and others, all of which have various ownership, operations, and planning 

authorities that affect the transportation network.

This multi-layered decisionmaking process can pose challenges for efficient network development

and require time-consuming inter-agency coordination. As metropolitan areas continue to expand 

and responsibilities for planning, financing, permitting, constructing and operating infrastructure 

become more and more fragmented, it has become increasingly difficult to reconcile local goals 

while ensuring transportation investments are efficient at a regional level. The necessary process 

of developing a consensus among numerous transportation agencies, local governments, and 

community stakeholder groups with varying objectives often leads to delays and inefficiencies in 

delivering projects. 

For example, roads that are part of the Interstate Highway System are subject to certain standards 

and are usually maintained by a state department of transportation (DOT). County or city streets 

are designed, operated, and maintained by counties or local municipalities. Transit systems are 

often built, operated, and maintained by a separate entity. In metropolitan areas, the MPO is 

responsible for actively seeking the participation of all relevant agencies and stakeholders in the 

planning process; similarly, the state DOT is typically responsible for activities outside 

metropolitan areas. 
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Increasingly, metropolitan areas are the locus for the vast majority of our nation’s economic and 

population growth. MPOs are responsible for planning transportation investments in these areas 

and to do so they must coordinate with state departments of transportation as well as local transit

operators, development agencies, local governments, environmental resource agencies, tribal 

governments, ports, airports, and railways within their boundaries. But addressing issues like air 

pollution and traffic congestion often requires coordinating across jurisdictions to achieve regional 

transportation planning solutions. As metropolitan areas grow in size and population, traditional 

jurisdictional boundaries are becoming blurred. This increases the impetus for regional 

cooperation across planning agencies to address issues that do not stop at state or county lines.
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Overview of the Transportation Planning Process
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Obstacles to Metropolitan Planning: The Challenge of Coordination Across Boundaries

The challenges of interagency coordination are especially pronounced in Florida, where a large 

number of county-based MPOs, transit operators, airports, seaports, and toll authorities share 

responsibility for the transportation network. This governance structure means that groups of 

agencies make joint decisions for regions that might be better served by a single regional 

planning entity. In light of this fact, 22 of the state’s 26 MPOs have entered into formal 

partnerships to coordinate regional transportation planning activities. In the Tampa Bay Area, 7 

regional planning organizations have formed the West Central Florida MPO Chairs Coordinating 

Committee (CCC) to collaboratively address the region’s transportation needs. While alliances 

like these exist to reconcile local goals and streamline collaborative decisionmaking, interagency 

coordination often adds a costly and time-consuming layer to the transportation planning 

process. When not done effectively, this approach can result in project delays, poor public 

involvement, inefficient investments, and a confused decisionmaking process. 
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Funding Scarcity 

Since the mid-1990s, inflation has eroded 40 

percent of the purchasing power of federal 

transportation funds and the balances of 

most dedicated transportation trust funds 

has declined as outlays have exceeded 

revenues. Federal fuel taxes per gallon have 

not been increased since 1993. Similarly, the 

growth of per capita vehicle miles traveled 

(VMT) that had characterized the highway 

system for decades, peaked in 2004 and has 

declined each year since then, for a total 

decline of 7.5 percent, falling in 2013 to its 

lowest level since 1996. Fuel economy 

standards have also increased over this same 

period leading to reductions in fuel use and 

reduced fuel tax revenues.

Today funding constraints motivate many major transportation decisions across all modes. As 

public revenues have become increasingly scarce relative to the costs of maintaining, operating and 

expanding infrastructure assets, public agencies have had to find ways to do more with less and, in 

some cases, scale back services. Often funding scarcity constrains options in ways that are 

ultimately detrimental and inefficient, for example, forcing public agencies to defer maintenance 

such that the ultimate costs associated with repair increase. 
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The growing scarcity of federal funding has led some state and local governments to seek to

generate additional revenues to pay for a greater share of infrastructure across all modes. In 

aviation, passenger facility fees, first authorized by Congress in 1990, now contribute to more than 

30 percent of airport capital investment. However, following the recession of 2007, state and local 

governments faced sharply declining 

revenues and spending cutbacks. 

Governments at all levels had to make 

difficult tradeoffs and find ways to do more 

with less. Adjusted for inflation, federal and 

state spending on surface transportation fell

between 2002 and 2011.

One major exception to the trend in 

declining surface transportation spending 

was the American Recovery and 

Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA). Passed in 

direct response to the economic crisis, ARRA 

included $27.5 billion in federal funding for 

highways, $8.4 billion for transit, $9.3 

billion for passenger rail, and $1.5 billion in 

multi-modal infrastructure grants.
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Some states, such as California, Maryland, Massachusetts, Vermont and Wyoming have raised 

state gas taxes and more than 30 states have passed transportation-related fiscal initiatives in 

recent years. In California, regional and local governments now provide 49 percent of all 

transportation funding, while the federal government provides less than a quarter. County-level 

sales taxes in California generate nearly $4 billion annually for transportation. 

However, nearly half of all states have chosen not to raise their gas tax over the past decade. Other 

states have found alternative ways to fund transportation spending by, for example, dedicating a 

portion of the state sales tax to transportation or raising vehicle registration fees. States have 

increasingly used debt to fund transportation projects. State-issued debt to fund surface

transportation projects nearly tripled, from $11 billion in 2000 to $30 billion in 2010.

At all levels of government, user fees have declined as a portion of surface transportation 

revenues. In 2000, user charges accounted for more than 95 percent of all federal highway 

revenues. By 2010, less than half of all federal highway revenues were derived from user charges as 

a result of the use of General Funds to cover Highway Trust Fund shortfalls. Stimulus spending on 

transportation projects following the Great Recession was drawn from the General Fund. Lowerthan-expected federal fuel tax revenues have also led Congress to supplement the Highway Trust 

Fund with transfers from the General Fund and other revenue sources. The portion of state 

highway revenues derived from user charges also declined—from 74 percent in 2000 to 56 percent 

in 2010.

Public transit system revenues are also covering a lesser share of operating costs than was 

previously the case. In 2010, public transit systems recovered 38 percent of operating expenditures 

from system generated revenues, down from 46 percent in 2000.
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Airport and Airway Trust Fund excise tax revenues have fluctuated since 2000. A number of 

factors, such as external events and general economic conditions, contributed to this fluctuation in 

revenues because they affect the number of tickets purchased, the fares paid by passengers, the 

amount of fuel purchased, and the value of air cargo shipped. For example, revenues declined early 

in the decade because of a series of largely unforeseen events, including the September 11, 2001, 

terrorist attacks, which reduced the 

demand for air travel, resulting in a 

steep decline in airline industry 

revenue. Similarly, during the recent 

recession, Trust Fund revenues declined 

from $12.0 billion in fiscal year 2008 to 

$10.9 billion in fiscal year 2009, in part 

because of the decline in domestic 

passenger traffic during that period.

Trust fund tax revenues reached $12.5 

billion in fiscal year 2012 and $13.5 

billion in fiscal year 2014. In recent 

years, FAA budget resources received 

from General Fund revenues has 

averaged about 28 percent annually.

Declining Trust Funds

Over the past decade, Congress has 

struggled to pass timely long-term 

transportation authorizations. The last 

five-year transportation act, the Safe, 

Accountable, Flexible, Efficient 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 162

Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) was passed in 2005 after a two year 

delay. The most recent transportation act, Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP21), passed in 2012, authorized spending for just two years and was passed after nearly a three 

year delay. Uncertainty about federal funding leads to delays in planning and constructing 

transportation projects and can raise the cost of issuing debt.

The critical issue facing Congress in recent years, given unprecedented declines in gas tax revenues 

as fuel economy has improved and per capita driving has decreased, has been identifying sufficient 

revenues to fund a long-term surface transportation program without dramatic cuts to spending.

Since 2001, Congress has authorized greater federal spending on highways and transit than the 

HTF has accrued in receipts from highway excise taxes and outlays from the HTF have generally 

exceeded revenues on an annual basis.

Rather than raise fuel tax rates or reduce outlays, Congress has supplemented federal 

transportation funding on an ad-hoc basis. Between 2007 and 2014, Congress has transferred 

more than $60 billion from the Treasury’s General Fund to the Highway Trust Fund. MAP-21 was 

funded through transfers from the General Fund and from the Leaking Underground Storage Tank 

Trust Fund. To offset the cost of these transfers, Congress has enacted provisions unrelated to 

transportation. For example, in the most recent extension, Congress offset transfers to keep the 

HTF solvent through May 2015 and by allowing companies to reduce the amount they contribute 

to pension funds and extending customs service fees for one year, from 2023 to 2024.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 163

Declining and uncertain federal surface transportation funding could have major impacts on states 

that rely heavily on federal funds to maintain, improve and construct roadways, bridges and 

transit systems. In states such as South Dakota, Rhode Island, and Arkansas, federal funding 

accounts for more than 40 percent of overall highway and transit funding. Uncertainty about 

federal funding means that states have had to delay projects to ensure that cash flows will be 

sufficient to fund or finance new projects. 

Transportation Planning under Short-Term Federal Transportation Funding 

Authorizations

States and metropolitan areas develop long-range transportation plans and program specific 

projects in four-year cycles. This requires careful planning and certainty that demands knowledge 

of the amount of available funding for the next four to six years. Short-term transportation 

funding authorization, coupled with the financial instability of the Highway Trust Fund, leaves 

states with tough choices: advance projects with their own funds without federal partnership—a 

risk that few states can afford—or delay starting construction of projects that are ready to break 

ground.

Some states are already delaying some of their planned projects. For states with short 

construction seasons, this could mean the loss of the whole construction season. Delaying 

projects can result in increased project costs and delays in the transportation benefits the 

projects would bring. Other economic impacts could include shrinking employment by 

construction contractors, less work for consulting engineers, and falloffs in construction 

equipment sales and leases.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 164

The Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF) supports the construction and rehabilitation of capital 

projects on U.S. inland waterways. Approximately $80 million annually is generated for the IWTF 

from a fuel tax on vessels using inland waterways. The balance of the IWTF has declined over the 

past from around $400 million in 2001 to slightly more than $100 million today largely due to 

greater than expected costs to construct the Olmsted Locks and Dam on the Ohio River. To 

support new construction and major rehabilitation of our inland waterways, Congress recently 

increased the per gallon tax on barge fuel from 20 cents to 29 cents.

The expiration in 2007 of the FAA’s long-term authorization was followed by 23 short-term 

extensions before Congress passed a multi-year authorization in 2012. An authorization lapse in 

2011 led to a two-week partial shutdown of the FAA in 2011 that required the FAA to stop 

construction projects and then restart them. The Airport and Airway Trust Fund lost an estimated 

$400 million in revenues from the lapse in authority. Operating under a long series of short-term 

extensions complicated agency operations and made it difficult for FAA to carry out long-term 

planning and strategic development of future technologies and innovation.

Following the expiration of a multi-year funding bill in 2007 for the 

FAA’s long-term authorization, the FAA was funded by 23 shortterm extensions before Congress passed a multi-year authorization 

in 2012.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 165

Policy Trends and Options

Governments can address the challenge of funding scarcity through a range of approaches, 

including better allocation of limited resources, more efficient delivery of projects, and increased 

revenues. Many governments are deploying these approaches in combination through use of 

innovative financing. Recently Vermont, Maryland, and Michigan have increased sales taxes on 

gasoline to raise transportation revenues. The Commonwealth of Virginia, for example, has both 

raised taxes to fund transportation and embarked on an ambitious program of public private 

partnerships which use private financing to incentivize the accelerated delivery and efficient 

management of transportation projects. 

Focusing the Federal Role 

Experienced observers from think tanks representing views from across the political spectrum

have called for the establishment of a more focused, goal-driven, mode-neutral, and performancebased federal transportation program. Some have argued that federal transportation spending 

could be brought more closely in line with federal transportation revenues by limiting the federal 

role to focus on funding those projects of national and regional significance that increase national 

economic competiveness as demonstrated through rigorous benefit-cost analysis. Nonprofit policy 

think tanks have proposed consolidated, competitive, non-modal federal funding programs that 

set performance standards and incentivize improved performance. Some transportation policy 

experts have proposed directing funding to improve the conditions of existing infrastructure first 

and foremost, while financing new capacity projects through federally-subsidized bonds and loans 

and non-federal revenue sources.

Geographic equity concerns increase the challenge of allocating federal funding on the basis of 

performance, or to focus funding programs on areas with the most need. Geographic equity is 

considered by many to be essential for gaining national support for federal transportation 

programs, but the goal of equitably distributing funding across states or regions often conflicts 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 166

with the goal or providing funding where it will have the greatest impact on transportation system 

performance. These concerns extend across every mode. With surface transportation, the concern 

is that sufficient federal gas tax revenues are distributed to small and rural states. In aviation, 

federal funding is provided to ensure the availability of air services for small and rural areas. 

Federal funding for Amtrak is provided to subsidize service on national routes that incur large 

operating losses. In transit, we often fund projects to extend service to new areas with less 

ridership rather than invest in improvements in service quality where ridership is high. These 

same tensions concerning the geographic equity of transportation investments exist at all scales, 

withing states, regions and cities. 

Performance Management 

Transportation agencies in all modes and at all levels are increasingly using performance measures 

and data to inform decisions and increase accountability. State and local agencies utilize these 

practices to demonstrate to the public that they are good stewards of taxpayer dollars and that 

transportation infrastructure is a worthwhile investment.

A study by the Pew Center and Rockefeller Foundation found that over the past 30 years public 

agencies have developed increasingly sophisticated measures to guide asset management and 

safety decisions. However, few state agencies have found effective ways to accurately measure how 

transportation investments can affect outcomes in critical goal areas such as economic 

development and environmental sustainability. The Pew Center report identified 13 states 

including Washington, California, Virginia, Minnesota, and Missouri that are leading the way on 

the use of performance measures to guide decisions across a range of goals. Washington State, for 

example, has used performance measures to demonstrate to voters and the state legislature how a 

5 cent/gallon increase in the state gas tax funded projects to improve safety, mitigate congestion, 

reduce emissions and support economic development.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 167

U.S. DOT is bolstering efforts to develop standardized performance 

measures for surface transportation that reflect federal goals. In 

some areas, achievement of performance targets will be tied to a 

small portion of federal funding for states. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 168

Despite the increasing use 

of performance measures, 

many state transportation 

investment decisions are 

still driven in large part by 

political, funding, and cost 

considerations. According 

to a survey conducted by 

the Government 

Accountability Office 

(GAO), next to funding 

availability, the most 

important considerations 

for states choosing which 

transportation projects to 

fund were public and 

political support. 

Economic analysis was 

considered an important 

factor by only a small 

minority of state DOTs.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 169

At the federal level, most transportation funding is currently allocated on the basis of formulas 

that are not directly tied to performance, such as population or lane miles. For example, under 

MAP-21 92 percent of federal highway funding and 80 percent of transit funding is distributed by 

formula to state DOTs who are responsible for investment decisions. Few federal transportation 

programs use performance-based criteria to award funding.

The Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21) of 2012 marked a significant

step towards making federal surface transportation programs more performance-based. MAP-21 

defines seven national goal areas (see Table) and performance planning and reporting 

requirements for a number of surface transportation programs. MAP-21 establishes the National 

Highway Performance Program which will define measures for states to use to assess and report 

pavement and bridge condition. It requires that safety performance measures be established for 

carrying out the Highway Safety Improvement Program and that traffic congestion and emissions 

measures be established for the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program.

Under MAP-21, states and MPOs are required to develop a number of performance-based plans 

including: Metropolitan Transportation Plan, Statewide Transportation Plan, Asset Management 

Plan, Strategic Highway Safety Plan, CMAQ Performance Plan, and State Freight Plan. Several 

federal highway programs now have performance-based rules that require funding set asides if 

performance in a particular goal area fall below established standards. MAP-21 also authorizes 

NHTSA to establish national performance measures for motor vehicle safety which must be 

reported on annually in state highway safety plans.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 170

Several prominent examples of competitive, multimodal, discretionary federal transportation 

programs that incentivize performance have also emerged in recent years. The Transportation 

Investment Generating Economic Recovery, or TIGER Program, is a competitive grant program 

that was initiated as part of ARRA in 2009. TIGER grants fund planning and capital projects across 

different surface transportation modes. TIGER was originally funded for $1.5 billion, and it has 

subsequently been renewed five times totaling over $4 billion in funding since the program’s 

inception. Criteria for grant awards included stipulations from Congress that awards be equitably 

distributed across the country and balance the needs of urban and rural communities. The U.S. 

DOT, however, has faced challenges measuring program outcomes.

Innovative Finance

Facing limits on transportation revenues, states are increasingly turning to tax-exempt bond

markets and innovative funding mechanisms to finance transportation infrastructure. State and 

local municipal bond issuances for highways have tripled since 1995, as states have sought to take 

advantage of low interest rates on bonds to advance urgent transportation projects.

Beyond the municipal bond market, innovative financing for infrastructure investment is 

becoming increasingly important as public budgets continue to tighten at all levels of government. 

Through programs such as the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA), 

the Railroad Rehabilitation and Improvement Financing Program (RRIF), and tax-exempt qualified 

private activity bonds (PABs), U.S. DOT plays a particularly important role in supporting 

innovative finance for projects across the country. Interest in these programs has increased in 

recent years. These funding tools apply to transportation projects across modes. Highway, transit, 

railroad, intermodal freight, and port access projects are all eligible for federal credit assistance 

through the TIFIA program. Any form of transportation project receiving federal assistance is 

eligible for PABS. Freight rail projects and intermodal facilities are eligible for assistance under the 

RRIF Program.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 171

The TIFIA program provides federal credit assistance in the form of direct loans, loan guarantees, 

and standby lines of credit to partially finance transportation surface transportation projects at 

low interest rates. The program can leverage $1 billion in federal funding authority to provide as 

much as $10 billion in credit assistance. Loans are repaid by revenues generated by revenues 

generated by the projects—through tolls, for example—or committed to the project by sponsor 

agencies.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 172

TIFIA Loan Helps Extend Transit Service in Los Angeles

In response to declining transportation revenues, many transportation agencies are using 

innovative finance mechanisms to fund much needed transportation infrastructure. The Los 

Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (LACMTA), for example, recently 

received $2.1 billion in federal support to help build the 9.4-mile Westside Purple Line Extension 

project from downtown Los Angeles to Beverly Hills, the University of California, Los Angeles, 

and the Westwood Veterans Affairs Hospital. LACMTA will receive $1.25 billion in construction 

grant funds from FTA’s Capital Investment Grant program and $856 million from the U.S. DOT’s 

TIFIA federal credit program. LACMTA will repay the TIFIA loan with revenues from a voterapproved retail sales tax. As transportation projects struggle to get off the ground nationwide, 

innovative funding mechanisms will remain a popular strategy for investing in beneficial projects 

that help communities such as Los Angeles plan for a livable, sustainable future.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 173

Interest in TIFIA has grown in recent years. The rate and structure of TIFIA loans are attractive to 

many states seeking alternative ways to finance major transportation projects. Some have 

proposed taking the TIFIA program model a step further, by establishing a national infrastructure 

bank. Such an institution would be established as an independent government-owned organization 

and would provide low-rate partial financing to a wide array of infrastructure projects.

The RRIF program is authorized to provide direct loans and loan guarantees up to $35 billion to 

finance development of railroad infrastructure. Up to $7 billion is reserved for projects benefiting 

freight railroads other than Class I carriers. Direct loans can fund up to 100 percent of a railroad 

project with repayment periods of up to 35 years and interest rates equal to the cost of borrowing.

Some state and local governments have entered into public-private partnerships (P3s) to finance, 

construct and operate transportation infrastructure. The goal of P3s is to deliver projects more 

efficiently by expanding the role of the private sector. Because P3s typically take more resources to 

evaluate and procure than conventional projects, and private financing costs are often higher than 

the costs of public financing, P3s are only appropriate for complex, high-risk projects.

Consequently, P3 investments account for only a small portion of overall transportation 

investments. Between 2007 and 2013, $22.7 billion of public and private funds were invested in 

P3s, about 2 percent of overall capital investment in the nation’s highways during that same 

period.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 174

P3s can provide an alternative source of financing that can accelerate projects and save taxpayers 

money when used appropriately under the right circumstances. However, P3s should not be 

considered as a source of funding for 

transportation infrastructure, but rather as a 

form of financing which will be repaid by public 

users. In a P3, the private firms invest equity 

upfront to help pay for the design and 

construction costs of the project, but, over the 

long-run, they seek competitive rates of return 

on those investments. Those returns are 

typically paid through tolls on the constructed 

facility or by annual payments from the public 

partner. 

P3s face a number of challenges, including 

estimating the value of delivering of a project 

through a P3, estimating the lifecycle costs of a 

project and the expected project revenues, and 

estimating the value of transferring risk to the 

private sector. Another significant obstacle is the 

patchwork of legal environments and 

procurement practices that differ across states, 

raising transaction costs for investors. In 

addition, state and local governments are very 

familiar with traditional municipal bond 

financing of infrastructure projects, which thus 

becomes the default approach, even on projects 

Virginia’s I-495 Express Lanes P3

A few states, such as Virginia and Florida, 

have used P3s to successfully deliver a 

number of major projects. For example, the 

I-495 Express Lanes added dynamically 

tolled express lanes to a 14-mile stretch of 

the Capital Beltway in Virginia through a 

public private partnership. An innovative 

design proposed by the private sector 

minimized property takings and drove 

down project costs. The $2 billion project, 

which involves an 85 year concession to a 

private entity to design, build, finance, 

operate and maintain the express lanes, 

was ultimately financed using $589 million 

in Private Activity Bonds, $348 million in 

private equity, a $589 million federal TIFIA 

loan, and $409 million grant from the 

Commonwealth of Virginia. The financing 

will be repaid with income from toll 

revenues. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 175

for which there are opportunities for long-term net savings through well-designed P3s. Some P3s 

have also been criticized for providing overly generous terms or subsidies to private, for-profit 

firms. Policymakers may also lack the political will either to implement enabling legislation or to 

increase revenue streams through tolling and other approaches.

The Build America Transportation Investment Center, established by U.S. DOT in 2014, will help 

to bridge gaps among both the public and private sectors in the development of mutually beneficial 

P3s. This Center will support state and local governments, as well as public and private developers 

and investors seeking to utilize innovative financing strategies for transportation infrastructure 

projects.

Alternative Revenues

Federal and state governments are increasingly turning to alternatives to the gas tax to funding 

transportation infrastructure. Gas tax receipts are declining as cars and trucks become more fuel 

efficient and growth in highway travel slows. In the face of political challenges to raising fuel taxes 

and declining prospects for future revenues, state and local governments have sought alternative 

revenue sources to finance transportation. 

At the state level, states such as Massachusetts, Maryland, New Hampshire, and Wyoming have 

raised state gas taxes in recent years. Some states, such as Pennsylvania and Virginia, have 

transitioned from a traditional motor fuels tax levied as a flat amount per gallon to a sales tax at 

the wholesale level. Others have dedicated a portion of the state sales tax to transportation 

funding or have raised license, registration and excise fees on vehicles. A number of states have 

turned to tolling and priced express lanes, in particular, to deliver projects that expand roadway 

capacity while managing congestion.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 176

Local governments have also demonstrated success raising taxes for transportation, often in 

exchange for a dedicated program of projects. For example, local options sales taxes have been 

used fund the expansion of transit systems in Los Angeles, Denver, and Seattle. In Portland, 

Oregon, the city used a variety funding sources including special assessments on local businesses 

and tax increment financing, which captured property tax revenues generated by increasing 

property values, to help finance a 15-mile streetcar network.

Value Capture

Some localities have experimented with more innovative forms of revenue, such as value capture 

and transportation utility fees. Value capture strategies can include a variety of mechanisms to 

capture a portion of the value generated by increases in land value near transportation 

improvements. Value capture can take the form of improvement districts where property owners 

and businesses agree to pay annual fees to fund a transportation improvement. Tax increment 

financing districts are another form of value capture where a portion of future property taxes 

resulting from increased property values is used to pay for infrastructure. Transportation utility 

fees are charged to residents and businesses on the basis of the type of business or residency and 

the number of trips they are estimated to generate.

Mileage Fees

Vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) fees are charged to drivers based on the miles they drive. Devices can 

be installed in vehicles to securely collect mileage data, data can be collected by satellite, or drivers 

can self-report usage. VMT fees have been piloted by Oregon and in 12 cities as part of a federallyfunded national evaluation. VMT fees are increasingly considered as a long-term solution to 

transportation revenue needs.

The advantage of VMT fees is that they are a more direct user fee. Revenues will not erode as 

vehicles become more efficient. If used in conjunction with a Global Positioning System (GPS)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 177

system, rates could be varied based on the geographic location of the vehicle or the time of travel.

Such widespread congestion pricing could result in savings from reduced delays and fuel 

consumption equaling more than $20 billion annually. Implementing VMT taxes is far more 

technically challenging than collecting gas taxes. There are also privacy concerns to consider, as 

citizens may fear that the government could use GPS data to track their whereabouts. One way to 

protect the privacy of citizens would be to restrict government’s access to data about where people 

are traveling by using independent private services to scramble the data and manage billing.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 178

Tolling

Many state and local governments have also begun implementing tolling strategies to raise 

revenue for transportation infrastructure. Not only can tolling be used to generate revenues to 

fund the construction of new highway capacity and to maintain existing capacity, it can also be 

used to manage congestion on a facility. Dynamic tolling, in which toll rates change based on the 

time of day or level of congestion, is particularly well suited to this role. 

Tolling has also increased as a strategy to fund highways, bridges and tunnels. Since 1992, tolls as 

a portion of state and local highway revenues have increased from 6 to 9 percent. Tolling is a more 

direct user fee than the gas tax, but it is more costly to collect than the gas tax. However, with the 

advent of electronic toll collection and mobile payment technologies, tolling has become more 

cost-effective and convenient. Tolling has increasingly been used to fund the construction and 

maintenance of price-managed lanes—or dedicated toll and High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes.

Federal law currently restricts the use of tolls on interstate system routes. However, beginning 

with the enactment of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) in 1991 and 

through succeeding federal surface transportation authorization acts, several exceptions to 

restrictions on tolling have been provided. Tolling can be used on new facilities and on bridges and 

tunnels that are reconstructed or replaced. These include special pilot programs that were 

established to allow tolling on a limited number of interstate segments for the purpose of funding 

reconstruction and rehabilitation of the interstate. However, none of these pilots have been 

implemented to date.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 179

Building Communities: The Economic Benefits of Transportation Projects

Transportation plays a major role in promoting economic growth and livability in communities 

across America. Transportation projects create new jobs, expand the gross regional product, 

increase property values and tax bases, and improve the overall quality of life. Transportation 

supports economic growth though short-term stimulus impacts and longer-term impacts on 

economic productivity. In assessing the economic development impacts of transportation, 

economists at University of Minnesota’s Center for Transportation Studies have demonstrated 

that careful investments and well-designed transportation projects can yield substantial 

economic benefits that greatly exceed overall project costs.

Consider, for example, the case of East St. Louis, Illinois—an industrial suburb. For decades, the 

city’s economic and demographic situation has been bleak; the city lost more than two-thirds of 

its population between 1950 and 2010 as a result of deindustrialization and economic decline. 

Despite these challenges, in the early 2000s planners and citizens were able to capitalize on the 

eastward expansion of the St. Louis light rail system—MetroLink—to enact a transportation 

vision that promised a brighter future for the area. The construction of a MetroLink station in 

the Emerson Park neighborhood helped link low-income residents with job opportunities in the 

Greater St. Louis area and spurred a series of transit-oriented affordable housing projects for 

local residents. The rail station also helped persuade lenders to finance mortgages and began to

attract developers, retailers, and employers to the area. More than ten years later, the station is 

still spurring economic development, including a recently-opened $22 million mixed-use 

apartment complex. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 180

International Cooperation

Over the past 30 years, the global economy has become increasingly integrated. More global travel 

and trade has made international government cooperation more important than ever. Issues 

requiring international cooperation include setting safety and security standards for international 

travel, pursuing standards harmonization for transportation industry products, seeking greater 

regulatory cooperation, facilitating market access and promoting international trade, and 

addressing global environmental issues. 

For example, Open Skies civil aviation agreements— an international service agreement between 

two or more nations, designed to loosen rules and regulations of international aviation—especially 

for commercial aviation—lead to international travel and economic growth, by reducing 

government involvement in commercial airline decisions about routes, capacity and pricing. The

U.S. has pursued Open Skies agreements with international partners since 1992 and there are now 

more than 100 agreements in place covering 70 percent of international departures. By opening up 

international aviation, Open Skies agreements improve flexibility for airline operations, boost local 

economies, and strengthen and expand economic and cultural links with foreign countries. 

In our globalized economy, international cooperation is needed to ensure compatibility and 

consistency as technological advances are adopted in aviation and marine transportation, vehicle 

safety and fuel efficiency, and international transportation systems. International research 

collaboration can promote innovation to address the common transportation problems faced by 

countries and individuals.

Open Skies agreements are estimated to have lowered ticket costs 

and increased demand for international flights.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 181

International cooperation is critical to addressing global environmental issues. For example, to 

address air pollution and emissions, the U.S. and other countries have worked cooperatively to 

establish marine fuel quality and engine emissions standards for international shipping. The 

United States is also working with the United Nations International Civil Aviation Organization to 

find ways to address aircraft emissions caused by international air travel through coordinated 

action and cooperative research and the development of new technologies. 

Policy Implications

Transportation agencies at all levels and across all modes face serious financial challenges that 

limit their ability to maintain our existing transportation system, let alone invest in the 

transportation system of tomorrow. While the American public believes in the importance of 

transportation, they are unable to agree on how to pay for it. Some are not convinced that 

governments will make efficient use of new revenues. Others want to be assured that tax dollars 

and other investments are distributed to the region where they live, or to the mode that they use.

The last 20 years have been marked by a shift from transportation system expansion to system 

preservation. The federal gasoline tax was last raised in 1993, just a couple of years after the last 

major segments of the interstate highway system were completed. Today, the bulk of 

transportation funding goes to preserving and enhancing existing facilities. For example, one of 

most costly transportation projects currently underway is the $2.3 billion reconstruction of a 21-

mile stretch of Interstate 4 through Orlando, which will preserve the existing corridor while adding 

additional lanes of traffic to accommodate a growing metropolis.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 182

Some of the largest projects are to replace structurally deficient bridges. The replacement of the 

Tappan Zee Bridge in New York will cost an estimated $3.9 billion, while the replacement of the 

San Francisco Bay Bridge cost $6.4 billion. The bulk of ARRA transportation funding went to 

projects to repair and rehabilitate existing systems rather than expand capacity. In this era of 

scarcity, visionary capacity building projects, like the development of high speed rail corridors, face 

intense scrutiny and skepticism.

As resources have become increasingly constrained, governments are being forced to make hard 

choices about whether to maintain services on roads and facilities that are less economically 

important. The use of enhanced data on the location and conditions of infrastructure and the 

location and characteristics of safety incidents have become increasingly important to public 

agency decisionmakers to guide resources to where they can be used most effectively to preserve 

the system and to demonstrate to the public that their tax dollars are put to good use. Asset 

management data help transportation agencies make investments that minimize lifecycle costs.

Public agencies are using safety data to assess risks and guide the implementation of 

countermeasures.

Increasingly, governments are looking for ways to transfer risks and responsibilities for managing 

transportation systems to the private sector. But, the private sector tends to be interested in 

assets from which it can generate a competitive rate of return. Governments are also developing 

strategies to leverage revenues through finance to bring private and public funding to the table to 

fund projects in the public interest. In the absence of robust federal support, local governments 

have increasingly sought ways to develop their own revenues to fund transportation projects that 

directly benefit those localities. But, ultimately, the performance of our transportation system 

depends on planning and making decisions at a regional and national level that benefit the 

performance of the network as a whole. And, it is the federal government’s responsibility to ensure 

the sustained performance of this interconnected multi-modal, national transportation system. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 183

Over the next 30 years the nation will need to embrace reforms to improve the effectiveness of 

transportation governance. A wealth of policy options exist that can improve transportation 

governance and finance, including:

 Developing measurable national transportation objectives that tie performance to incentives 

or consequences for recipients of federal funding. 

 Incentivizing coordination across jurisdictions and the development of local revenues.

 Strengthening planning and project development at the regional level.

 Improving data collection and analysis capabilities to enable transportation programs to 

become more performance-based. 

 Quantifying the economic benefits and lifecycle costs of projects to aid in maintenance and 

investment decisions.

 Developing revenue vehicles that can provide sustainable, predictable revenue streams that 

support efficient, long-term planning decisions for both capital expenditures and operating 

expenses.

 Facilitating access to credit assistance for transportation projects and establishing policies 

that level the playing field for states and municipalities seeking to deliver transportation 

infrastructure through public private partnerships. 

 Reforming the project delivery process by improving coordination and streamlining 

permitting and oversight.

 Using pricing and market-based solutions when appropriate to efficiently manage demand 

and to reduce regulatory burdens on travelers and industry.

These policy options are explored in further depth in the conclusion of this report.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 184

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• Sundquist, Eric. State Smart Transportation Initiative. News; “Per capita VMT ticks down for the eighth straight year.” February 25, 2013.

(http://www.ssti.us/2013/02/per-capita-vmt-ticks-down-for-eighth-straight-year)

• (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. 2013. Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2013. 

December.

(http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/fetrends/1975-2013/420s13002.pdf)

• Airports Council International. Passenger Facility Charges.

(http://www.aci-na.org/static/entransit/Passenger%20Facility%20Charges%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf)

• California Department of Transportation. 2014. Transportation Funding in California.

(http://www.dot.ca.gov/hq/tpp/offices/eab/fundchrt_files/Transportation_Funding_in_CA_2014.pdf)

• Schroeder, Ingrid and Anne Stauffer, et. al. The Pew Charitable Trusts. 2014. Intergovernmental Challenges in Surface Transportation Funding. September.

(http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/Assets/2014/09/SurfaceTransportationIntergovernmentalChallengesFunding.pdf?la=en)

• (CBO) Congressional Budget Office. 2013. Federal Investment. December.

(http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/44974-FederalInvestment.pdf)

• Orski, Ken. Infrastructure USA. “Transportation Policy and Funding in the Post-Election Climate.” November 12, 2014.

(http://www.infrastructureusa.org/transportation-policy-and-funding-in-the-post-election-climate)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 186

• Oakley, Janet. “Outlook for the Federal Highway Trust Fund.” Presentation at the National Council of County Association Executives: Presidents & Executive 

Directors Meeting. January 9, 2014.

(http://www.naco.org/about/leadership/nccae/Documents/Oakley-Presentation-Slides__AASHTO_2014.pdf)

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration and (FTA) Federal Transit Administration. 2013. 2013 Status of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions & 

Performance.

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/2013cpr/pdfs/cp2013.pdf) 

• (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. 2014. Airport and Airway Trust Fund: Fact Sheet. April.

(http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/apl/aatf/media/AATF_Fact_Sheet.pdf)

• Lu, Adrienne. Pew Charitable Trusts: Stateline. “States Hit the Brakes on Road Projects as Federal Fund Goes Broke.” July 2, 2014.

(http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2014/07/02/states-hit-the-brakes-on-road-projects-as-Federal-fund-goes-broke)

• Laing, Keith. The Hill. “Obama signs $63B FAA funding bill into law.” February 14, 2012.

(http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/210649-obama-signs-63b-faa-funding-bill-into-law)

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. 2014. Funding for Highways and Disposition of Highway-User Revenues, All Units of Government, 2012. March. 

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2012/pdf/hf10.pdf) 

• Fritelli, John. Congressional Research Service. 2013. Harbor Maintenance Financing and Funding. September. (http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43222.pdf)

• (BOC) Bureau of the Census. State & Local Government Finance; “Historical Data.” (http://www.census.gov/govs/local/historical_data.html) 

• The Pew Charitable Trusts. 2014. Figure 7: Surface Transportation Investment is Declining. 

(http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/Assets/2014/09/FF-Transportation-Report-Horizontal-Graphics_v3_123114.pdf) 

• (BEA) Bureau of Economic Analysis. Interactive Data; “National Data: National Income and Product Accounts Tables: Section 1 – Domestic Product and Income.”

(http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=9&step=1#reqid=9&step=1&isuri=1) 

• Poole, Robert W., Jr. and Adrian T. Moore. Reason Foundation. 2010. Restoring Trust in the Highway Trust Fund. August. 

(http://reason.org/files/restoring_highway_trust_fund.pdf)

• Kahn, Matthew E. and David M. Levinson. The Brookings Institution. The Hamilton Project. 2011. Fix it First, Expand it Second, Reward it Third: A New Strategy for 

America’s Highways. February.

(http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/2/highway%20infrastructure%20kahn%20levinson/02_highway_infrastructure_kahn_levinson

_paper.pdf)

• (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2014. Surface Transportation: Department of Transportation Should Measure the Overall Performance and Outcomes of the 

TIGER Discretionary Grant Program. September. (http://www.gao.gov/assets/670/666025.pdf)

• (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2010. Statewide Transportation Planning: Opportunities Exist to Transition to Performance-Based Planning and Federal 

Oversight. December.

(http://www.gao.gov/assets/320/314004.pdf)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Trends  How We Align Decisions and Dollars 187

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. 2013. “Table SF-21.” State Funding for Highways – Summary – 2011. December.

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics/2011/pdf/sf21.pdf)

• Galston, William A. and Korin Davis. The Brookings Institution. “Setting Priorities, Meeting Needs: The Case for a National Infrastructure Bank.” December 13, 

2012.

(http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/12/13-infrastructure-bank-galston-davis)

• (Treasury) Department of the Treasury. 2014. Expanding our Nation’s Infrastructure through Innovative Financing. September.

(http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Documents/Expanding%20our%20Nation's%20

Infrastructure%20through%20Innovative%20Financing.pdf)

• The White House. “Fact Sheet: Building a 21st Century Infrastructure: Increasing Public and Private Collaboration with the Build America Investment Initiative.” 

News release. July 17, 2014.

(http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/07/17/fact-sheet-building-21st-century-infrastructureincreasing-public-and-pr)

• National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission. 2007. Evaluation of Impact Fees and Value Capture Techniques. January.

(http://transportationfortomorrow.com/final_report/pdf/volume_3/technical_issue_papers/paper5a_11.pdf)

• (CBO) Congressional Budget Office. 2011. Alternative Approaches to Funding Highways. March.

(https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/03-23-highwayfunding.pdf)

• Adams, John S. and Barbara J. VanDrasek. Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, and The American Institute of Architects. 2007. 

Transportation as Catalyst for Community Economic Development. December.

(http://www.its.umn.edu/Publications/ResearchReports/pdfdownloadl.pl?id=838)

• Florida Department of Transportation. I-4 Ultimate Improvement Project; “Project Info.”

(http://i4ultimate.com/project-info)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Why Do People Travel? 188

System Implications

How will trends affect the different components of the transportation 

system? We must examine implications for each mode.

This part of the report explores how the trends we have just presented will affect the 

transportation system’s modal components.

Each “modal” section, in addition to describing the implications of the major trends, discusses 

trends in safety and physical infrastructure conditions, or state of good repair.

The modal sections are as follows:

 Highways

 Pedestrians and Bicycles

 Public Transit

 Aviation

 Intercity Rail

 Maritime

 Pipelines

The modal sections are preceded by a discussion of travel demand.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Why Do People Travel? 189

Why Do People Travel?

To understand trends in transportation demand, we must understand why people travel. The most 

common reasons are to commute to and from work, to travel to school and religious services, to 

shop, to go on vacation and visit friends and relatives, and to travel for business purposes. 

Personal travel makes up about three quarters of all highway travel. Freight movement, publicvehicle travel, and utility-services travel make up the remaining quarter of travel on roads. 

People travel much more today than they did 30 years ago. While VMT per capita has declined in 

recent years, over the past 30 years total VMT nearly doubled; VMT per capita increased by 

approximately 40 percent. Today there are 90 million more registered vehicles and nearly 60 

million more licensed drivers on our roads than there were 30 years ago. Indeed, travel by all 

modes has been increasing. Both passenger rail and public transit travel have increased by more 

than a third. The largest increase is in commercial aviation, where passenger miles traveled has 

more than doubled. However, as described in the How We Move section, the trend in growth in per 

capita travel may be slowing.

Commuting

Commuting is one of the most common reasons for travel. Over the past 30 years, average 

commuting distances have increased and commuting speeds have declined, leading Americans to 

spend more time commuting. More and more Americans traveled to work in a car alone and traffic 

increased in many major metropolitan areas. 

Travel for commuting constitutes nearly 40 percent of all public transit passenger miles traveled,

and 28 percent of all vehicle miles traveled. Workers travel significantly more than non-workers.

Workers as a group average about twice the level of overall travel and almost three times the level 

of auto travel compared to retirees. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Why Do People Travel? 190

People are much more likely to travel alone when they are commuting than when they are 

traveling to run errands and for social and recreational purposes. Although rush hour traffic 

includes a significant portion of people traveling for non-work purposes, commuting times tend to 

coincide with peak travel times, between 7 and 9 a.m. and again between 4 and 6 p.m. According to 

National Household Travel Survey data average commute distances increased significantly 

between 1983 and 2001, from 8.5 miles to 12.1 miles per trip, before declining slightly to 11.8 

miles in 2009. Likewise, the average time we spend commuting has increased, from 18 minutes per 

trip in 1983 to 24 minutes in 2009. Finally, since 1990, the average speed of commuting has 

declined in all metropolitan areas as traffic has increased.

Nearly all of the growth in commuting traffic can be attributed to growth in commutes by private 

vehicle. Census data on commuting show that between 1980 and 2013, the proportion of workers 

driving alone to work increased from 64 percent to 77 percent. During the same period, carpooling 

decreased from 20 percent of all trips to 10 percent and public transit’s share of commuters 

decreased from 6 percent to 5 percent. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Why Do People Travel? 191
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Between 2003 and 2013, the long-term trend of travel by personal vehicle has slowed. While the 

share of those carpooling continued to decline, the share of other modes, such as transit, walking, 

cycling and telecommuting, increased slightly. The long-term trend of rapid growth in the share of 

automobile commuting appears to be ending, and the use of public transit and other modes is 

rebounding. Overall, however, these recent changes have had a relatively minor impact on overall 

commuting patterns. Today more than three in four Americans commute by driving alone.

Looking ahead to the next 30 years, the most influential factors affecting commuter travel are 

likely to be two trends highlighted earlier: the size of the workforce and the growth in flexible 

schedules and teleworking. The portion of Americans in the workforce is expected to decline as the 

population ages, moderating growth in the number of commuters. The continued growth in 

teleworking and the use of flexible schedules, will also serve to moderate demand for commuting, 

particularly at peak travel times. These changes may combine to slow growth in congestion in 

metropolitan areas. 

Non-Work Travel

While commuting is an important component of personal travel, nearly half the population does 

not work, and a majority of travel is for non-work purposes. Non-work trips include trips for 

shopping, personal errands, and social and recreational travel. They account for 81 percent of all 

passenger miles traveled and 54 percent of all vehicle miles traveled.

Unlike commuting, non-work trips are more likely to be undertaken with others. For non-work 

trips, particularly social and recreational travel and travel to school and religious services, 

individuals are less likely to use a private vehicle or take transit, and much more likely to walk.

Non-work travel also tends to be undertaken throughout the day, and on weekends, as well as 

weekdays.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Why Do People Travel? 193

Long-Distance Travel

The vast majority of trips we take are for 

relatively short distances. Less than 5 percent 

of all trips people take are more than 30 miles 

in length. However these trips account for

approximately a third of passenger vehicle 

miles traveled. Most long-distance trips are to 

visit friends and family, and for vacation. 

Another common reason is business travel.

Like all trips over one mile, the dominant mode 

for long distance travel is a personal vehicle. 

Personal vehicle travel accounts for 9 out of 10 

trips of 100 miles or more. Another 6 percent 

are made by air travel. The remaining 4 percent 

are made by bus and train. 

For trips between 100 and 500 miles, express 

buses, trains, and airlines all compete for 

customers. Altogether, between 2010 and 2012 

the number of operations by intercity bus 

carriers nearly doubled. Today, the motorcoach 

industry carries more than 600 million 

passengers a year in the United States, nearly 

as many as U.S. airlines. 

While traditional scheduled motor coach 

providers, such as Greyhound, have operated 

for almost 100 years, today, discount intercity 

Tourism and the U.S. Economy

Increasing travel and tourism can increase 

employment and strengthen economies in 

urban, suburban, and rural regions 

throughout the United States. According to 

the Department of Commerce, spending by 

international visitors in 2013 totaled more 

than $180.7 billion, up nearly $1.3 billion per 

month from 2012. The travel and tourism 

industry now accounts for 26 percent of all 

American services exports, making tourism 

the top service that the United States exports, 

and nearly eight percent of overall exports.

The National Travel and Tourism Strategy, 

proposed by President Obama and adopted in 

2012, identified ways to significantly increase 

travel and tourism in and to the United States 

and set a goal of annually welcoming 100 

million international visitors to the United 

States by 2021. U.S. DOT is working hard with 

other federal agencies to help accomplish that 

goal. The United States requires world class 

infrastructure to attract and facilitate 

domestic and international tourism, and 

maintain its leadership position as a top 

global travel destination.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Why Do People Travel? 194

bus services—which first emerged in the mid-2000s—are expanding rapidly. As a result, 

traditional providers have remodeled their business approach to compete with discount carriers. 

This entry of new carriers is spurring competition that also leads to more convenient services. 

Intercity bus carriers compete for travelers by providing low fares, convenient online ticketing 

services and amenities such as power outlets and uninterrupted Wi-Fi service. Average intercity 

bus fares are significantly lower than those for passenger train and airlines for the same city pair, 

and the costs are generally lower than driving. 

The rapidly increasing intercity bus market has also led to increased safety risks as new low-cost 

carriers have entered the market. Strengthening federal and state regulations and increased 

oversight and enforcement can help to ensure that intercity bus services are safe and accessible.

A majority of trips over 750 miles in length are taken by plane. More than half of all international 

trips, and virtually all trips taken outside of North America, are taken by plane. About two thirds 

of all international trips are to Mexico or Canada, and personal vehicle trips account for nearly two 

thirds of those trips.

Freight

Our freight transportation system is made up of multiple interconnected modes and networks that 

fit together to transport an immense variety of goods and services. 

The fastest growing rail freight sector is intermodal traffic—or the movement of a wide range of 

products in containers and trailers. More than 10 percent of freight is now transported on 

multiple modes. For example, imported merchandise arrives in container ships to coastal ports 

such as Los Angeles/Long Beach, where it is transferred to trains and trucks to be transported to 

inland distribution centers across the country.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Why Do People Travel? 195

Trucking is the primary mode of travel for most freight and is the dominant mode for distances 

under 750 miles. Commercial trucking accounts for about 9 percent of all highway vehicle miles 

traveled. Trucks are the dominant mode for freight because the extensive public road network 

allows for point-to-point delivery.

Rail and marine transportation are more commonly used for long-distance hauls of bulk goods and 

raw materials. Freight rail traffic has nearly doubled since the industry was deregulated in the early 

1980s.

The transportation of agricultural products and other goods by barge remains a viable alternative 

to road and rail transportation in many parts of our country. Millions of tons of bulk commodities 

are transported throughout the Ohio River Basin, along the Mississippi River and the Great Lakes, 

and on the Columbia and Snake Rivers on the West Coast. However, over the past 30 years tonmileage of domestic marine transportation has declined considerably, as trucks have taken a larger 

share of domestic freight, and the economy has shifted toward services and away from agricultural 

production. 

Air freight carries only a small portion of overall freight tonnage, but it is the mode of choice for 

carrying high value cargo over long distances. The most important cargo airports, by landed 

weight, are Memphis and Louisville, which are the global hubs for FedEx and UPS, respectively, as 

well as Anchorage, which is a gateway for trade with Asia. However, many other airports also 

accommodate significant levels of air cargo, such as Miami International, Los Angeles 

International, Chicago O’Hare, the New York-area airports.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Why Do People Travel? 196

References

• Pisarski, Alan E. Transportation Research Board. 2006. Commuting in America: The Third National Report on Commuting Pattern and Trends. June. 

(http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/nchrp/CIAIII.pdf)

• Santos, Adella, et. al. Federal Highway Administration. 2011. Summary of Travel Trends: 2009 National Household Travel Survey. June. 

(http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf)

• American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. 2013. Commuting in America 2013: The National Report on Commuting Patterns and Trends. 

October.

(http://traveltrends.transportation.org/Documents/CA10-4.pdf)

• McGuckin, Nancy. “Long Distance Travel in the United States.” Presentation at the Transportation Research Board Annual Conference. January 2009.

(http://www.travelbehavior.us/Nancy--ppt/Long%20Distance%20Travel%20in%20the%20US%20-%20PPT.pdf)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 197

Highways and Motor Vehicles

Our nation’s robust highway system connects Americans from across the country. Safe, highfunctioning roadways, bridges and tunnels support freedom of movement and enable access to 

goods, services and markets that are essential to the way of life of all Americans. Yet today our 

highway system is facing many challenges, from aging infrastructure and increased congestion to 

reduced fuel tax revenues, which threaten to lower our quality of life and reduce our economic 

competitiveness. 

As we look to the future it is clear that the demographic, economic, technological, environmental 

and cultural trends highlighted in this report will have a major impact on highway performance 

over the next 30 years. Critical trends affecting highways include:

 Population and economic growth will lead to increased motor vehicle travel, particularly in 

metropolitan areas, leading to increasing congestion.

 Many aging highways and deficient bridges will require reconstruction and replacement 

demanding more funds to maintain our roadway infrastructure in a state of good repair.

 Higher fuel efficiency standards will lead to lower fuel consumption driving down fuel tax 

revenues and forcing policy makers to consider alternative sources of funding for 

transportation.

 Advances in automation of vehicles will lead to continued improvements in safety and 

enhance the productivity of our transportation system while creating new challenges for 

planners, regulators and policymakers.

 Continued safety advances will result in thousands of lives saved.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 198

History

The modern era of public road planning and construction begins with the bicycle. In the 1890s 

groups like the League of American Wheelmen, with 150,000 members at its peak, and the 

National League for Good Roads, started the Good Roads Movement to lobby for public 

investment in roads. But it was not until 1916 that the Federal Aid Road Act was established to 

improve rural post roads, marking the beginning of federal aid to states for modern road 

construction. The Federal Aid Highway Act of 1921 extended funding to interstate highways for 

urban motorists. In 1932, the Hoover administration enacted a penny-per-gallon fuel tax—the 

first federal gas tax—to address the growing federal budget deficit. The federal gas tax continued 

to support general federal revenues until the Federal Highway Act of 1956. 

The Federal Aid Highway Act of 1944 was the first to call for an extensive national system of 

interstate highways, but the interstate system was not federally funded until President 

Eisenhower signed the landmark Federal Aid Highway Act in 1956. The Act created the Highway 

Trust Fund to cover the expenses of the federal aid highway program and dedicated federal fuel tax 

receipts to it. With more than 41,000 miles of interstates constructed, the system was proclaimed 

essentially complete in 1992. 

The vast majority of our roadway system is made up of state and local roads that are not part of 

the interstate highway system. In total, there are more than 4 million miles of public roads. More 

than three quarters of these roads are owned by local governments. 

Interstate highways make up only about 1 percent of roadway 

miles in the United States but they carry more than 17 percent of 

all traffic.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 199
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The construction and expansion of highways slowed following the substantive completion of the 

interstate system in 1992. Construction of new roads and bridges slowed in part due to technical 

and fiscal challenges of expanding capacity in the built up metropolitan areas where capacity is 

most needed. Higher planning, environmental and engineering standards increased the cost and 

time it takes to build roadway capacity, while fuel efficiency gains reduced fuel tax revenue and

inflation eroded the purchasing power of transportation dollars. As highway expansion slowed, 

vehicle travel continued to increase, leading to increasing congestion. Today, highways across the 

country suffer from high levels of congestion, particularly in metropolitan areas, even as the

growth of vehicle travel has slowed. 

Increasing Congestion

We all know the frustrating experience of sitting in traffic. Unfortunately, for many of us traffic is 

part of our daily lives. We spend long hours stuck in traffic, or we go out of our way to avoid traffic 

by going to work at odd hours, leaving early for appointments, or by taking round-about routes to 

avoid areas of chronic congestion. By some estimates, the average American spends an estimated 

41 hours in traffic each year, the equivalent to five days of vacation. Congestion also holds back 

our economy; all told, highway congestion costs our economy an estimated $121 billion each year 

in wasted time and fuel and an average commuter more than $800. 

Congestion will likely increase in the coming years as the population and economic growth is

increasingly concentrated in already congested metropolitan areas. Highway congestion has a 

negative impact on all aspects of our lives that require travel and the movement of goods. As the 

population in metropolitan areas grows over the next 30 years, the increases in vehicle travel, 

albeit at slower rates than the past 30 years, can be expected to further exacerbate congestion 

resulting in added costs for road users.

The average amount of time that Americans auto commuters lost 

due to congestion delays has nearly tripled since 1982.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 201

FHWA projects vehicle travel to grow at an average 

annual rate ranging between 0.69 and 0.82 percent 

over the long-term, or as fast or slightly faster than 

the rate of population growth. At these rates, the 

traffic on our roadways would increase between 23 

and 28 percent by 2045. Since most population 

growth will be located in metropolitan areas, 

growth in vehicle travel will likely 

disproportionately affect fast growing 

metropolitan areas.

Congestion not only inconveniences commuters it 

also hurts our economy by raising the costs of 

delivering goods. Trucking is the primary freight 

mode and many key truck routes on the National 

Highway System are expected to experience 

significant increases in truck volume over the next 

30 years. Congestion along truck corridors 

decreases the reliability of truck deliveries affecting 

the industry's ability to respond to customer 

requirements and raising the costs of goods. Over 

the past 30 years, deregulation and other factors 

have increased the productivity and lowered the 

cost of freight transportation. However, failure to 

invest in strategies to address congestion could 

increase the cost of moving all goods in the years 

ahead. 

The Costs of Freight Bottlenecks

The long and often vulnerable supply 

chains of high-value, time-sensitive 

commodities are particularly susceptible 

to congestion. Congestion results in 

enormous costs to shippers, carriers, and 

the economy. For example, Nike spends 

an additional $4 million per week to carry 

an extra 7 to 14 days of inventory to 

compensate for shipping delays. One day 

of delay requires a container 

transportation provider to use an 

additional 1,300 containers and chassis, 

which adds $4 million in costs per year. A 

week-long disruption to container 

movements through the Ports of Los 

Angeles and Long Beach could cost the 

national economy between $65 million 

and $150 million per day. Freight 

bottlenecks on highways throughout the 

United States cause more than 243 

million hours of delay to truckers 

annually, a loss of about $6.5 billion per 

year.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 202

Aging Highways and Bridges

It is becoming more costly to maintain high-quality driving conditions on America’s roadways —

many of which were constructed in the 1950s and 1960s with engineering lifespans of 25 to 50 

years. While certain states or regions face more severe pavement quality issues than do other 

states, state of good repair is an issue across the nation, particularly on urban and rural roads off 

of the NHS. Poor conditions on roads and bridges threaten to increase vehicle operating costs, 

produce time delays, and increase the frequency of crashes.

Bridge conditions are improving, but significant investments are needed to address continued 

maintenance backlogs on our nation’s bridges. Of the 607,000 public road bridges, about 67,000 

were classified as structurally deficient in 2012, and another 85,000 were classified as functionally 

obsolete. In other words, one quarter of the bridges in our transportation system are not meeting 

today’s standards. A bridge classified as structurally deficient or functionally obsolete is not 

unsafe, but may require the posting of a vehicle weight or height restriction.

Over the past decades, governments have prioritized bridge maintenance and have made the 

investments necessary to improve the conditions of bridges. Since 1990 the number of bridges 

classified as structurally deficient or functionally obsolete have been gradually falling. Fixing and 

replacing bridges can be costly, though, in recent years more than 15 percent of state capital 

spending on highways has gone to bridge rehabilitation and replacement.

Declining Revenues

The erosion of fuel tax revenues has made it close to impossible for many states and regions to 

maintain a state of good repair and an acceptable level of service on our roadways. The federal gas 

One quarter of the bridges in our transportation system are 

either structurally deficient or functionally obsolete.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 203

tax has not been increased since 1993 and inflation has reduced the purchasing power of gas tax 

revenues. Increasing fuel efficiency and reduced vehicle travel have compounded this problem as 

inflation-adjusted federal gas tax revenue fell by $15 billion, or 31 percent, from 2002 to 2012. 

Over the same period, state gas tax revenues decreased by $10 billion, or 19 percent, adjusting for 

inflation. Consequently, in 2010, user charges accounted for just $93 billion out of a total $205 

billion in all highway revenue, as governments have increasingly resorted to alternative revenue 

sources to fund highway expenditures.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that, to prevent future shortfalls and preserve 

current levels of spending without transferring additional funds, lawmakers would either need to 

reduce federal highway obligations by approximately 25 to 30 percent or raise the gas tax by about 

10 to 15 cents per gallon. CBO has further determined that simply maintaining current levels of 

federal highway spending would require a minimum of $11-12 billion more per year. FHWA has 

estimated that at least $24 billion in additional capital spending would be required from all levels 

of government to improve highway system performance.

In the coming years, higher fuel standards will increase our energy independence, reduce air 

pollution, and lower costs for consumers, but they will also reduce fuel tax revenues. The CBO has 

estimated that the higher fuel efficiency standards already in place will reduce fuel tax revenues by 

21 percent by 2040. Breakthroughs in renewable fuels, electric vehicles or automation could lead 

to further decreases in fuel tax revenues over the next 30 years.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 204

Looking to the future, innovations in highway financing and highway revenue sources could help 

to address revenue shortfalls. Finding new revenue sources that are not tied to fuel consumption 

such as taxes on vehicle miles traveled, vehicle registration fees, or sales taxes could help to 

alleviate the downward pressure on revenues caused by declining fuel consumption. Expanding the 

use of tolling and congestion pricing could help to reduce congestion, while generating revenues 

that could be used to finance the construction of new roadways and bridges or maintain existing 

facilities. Public-private partnerships, where the private sector finances the construction of new 

capacity, could be used to accelerate the timeline of some transportation projects and shift a 

greater share of the risks of delivering transportation projects to the private sector. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 205

The Federal Highway 

Administration has estimated 

that approximately $77 billion in 

annual investment is needed to 

meet the needs of our federal-aid 

highway system.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 206

Automated and Connected Vehicles

New technologies will have significant implications for the operations and use of roadways and 

motor vehicles, including changes to how we drive, how we choose where and whether or not to 

drive, and how we pay for using roadways. There is a significant opportunity for new technology to 

expand capacity and efficiency of our roads and other transportation systems, and to also expand 

the travel options available to us, while also allowing transportation agencies to collect user fees 

that accurately reflect the cost of the service provided while ensuring the privacy of individuals. 

Automation, connected vehicles and advancing automotive technologies offers some of the most 

potentially transformative changes, enhancing safety through obstacle detection systems, and 

potentially expanding capacity on roads by enabling vehicles to travel more closely together. 

County Governments Use Federal Funding To Rebuild Roads in Rural Mississippi

In one rural part of Mississippi, three counties—Claiborne, Franklin and Jefferson counties—

struggle to maintain high-quality roadways. Many roads are deteriorating faster than county 

governments can repair them, and 60 area bridges have been rated as deficient. 

In recognition of this challenge, the U.S. DOT recently awarded $17.8 million in TIGER grant 

funding to support the Three-County Roadway Improvements Program, also known as TRIMississippi. Through TRI-Mississippi, the three county governments are undertaking a series of 

improvements that will modernize 41 miles of roads and 18 substandard bridges. Across the 

nation, projects like TRI-Mississippi are making American lives easier by connecting them with 

employers, schools, and services. While the need for infrastructure investment is great, projects 

like these demonstrate that local governments have the power to ensure that their communities 

have access to reliable transportation options.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 207

Continued introduction of automation features to vehicles will likely lead to improvements in 

safety and eventually could enhance the capacity of our roadways. While the technical feasibility of 

these features is becoming increasingly apparent, the timeline for the mainstream adoption of 

automated features and the impact of these features on safety, highway capacity and travel and 

settlement patterns remains unclear. The advance of these potentially transformative technologies 

makes it difficult for transportation planners to plan for long-term transportation system needs.

Vehicle Safety Recalls 

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has the authority to issue vehicle safety 

standards and to require manufacturers to recall vehicles that have safety-related defects or do 

not meet federal safety standards. In 2014 more than 60 million vehicles were recalled double the 

previous annual record of 30 million. 

Manufacturers voluntarily initiate many of these recalls, while others are either influenced by 

NHTSA investigations or ordered by NHTSA via the courts. If a safety defect is discovered, the 

manufacturer must notify NHTSA, as well as vehicle or equipment owners, dealers, and 

distributors. The manufacturer is then required to remedy the problem at no charge to the 

owner. NHTSA is responsible for monitoring the manufacturer’s corrective action. Consumers, 

however, are not required to fix their vehicle regardless of the severity of a safety defect and the 

recall completion rate has been estimated at around 75 percent. This means that unsafe vehicles 

remain on the road and may be resold. Furthermore, NHTSA does not have authority to notify 

potential used car buyers of a defect. One potential solution would be to ban the sale and rental 

of unfixed recalled vehicles or to increase authority to levy civil penalties against automakers who 

fail to act quickly on vehicle recalls.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 208

Improving Safety

Safety on America’s highways has dramatically 

improved over the past several decades. Cars and 

roadways have become safer, seat belt use has 

increased, and alcohol-impaired driving rates have 

declined. Over the past decade, the number of people 

killed in crashes on American highways has declined by 

24 percent.

Despite these improvements, motor vehicle crashes 

remain among the leading causes of death for 

Americans under the age of 64. In 2013, 32,719

individuals lost their lives in motor vehicle crashes. Of 

those, nearly one third were killed in a crash involving 

an alcohol-impaired driver. Nearly half of those killed 

were not wearing a seatbelt. 

Demographic trends, technological advances and 

improvements to traffic safety enforcement, education 

and engineering are likely to lead to continued safety 

improvements in the next 30 years. As our population 

grows more urban, more driving will likely take place on 

safer roads at slower speeds. Stronger restrictions on 

youth driving and an overall aging of our population 

may contribute to reduced incidents of reckless driving.

Continued education and enforcement efforts will be needed in the future as issues such as 

distracted driving threaten the safety of our roadways. 

Distracted Driving: A Serious 

Safety Concern

Distracted driving is a dangerous 

epidemic on America’s roadways. In 

2012 alone, 3,328 people were killed 

in distracted driving crashes.

Distracted driving involves all types 

of distractions from adjusting the 

radio to reading a map, but the use of 

text messaging is by far the most 

alarming source of distraction. At 

highway speeds a car can travel the 

length of a football field in the time 

it takes to read a text message.

Texting while driving makes it 23 

times more likely a driver could end 

up in a crash and causes an estimated 

1,600,000 accidents per year. Yet, 

more than half of young adult drivers 

claim it is easy to text and drive. As 

the use of mobile devices increases in 

our society there is a real concern 

 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 209

Advances in automation and connected vehicle technology will likely contribute to sustained 

improvements in safety. Safety features such as airbags, antilock braking systems, electronic 

stability control, rearview and blind spot cameras, lane departure warnings and adaptive cruise 

control have all made vehicles much safer. The introduction of automated features and connected 

vehicle systems will likely lead to substantial improvements in safety in the near future.

Policy Implications

Personal motor vehicles will continue to be a predominant mode of travel, despite shifting 

demographics and economic climates, but the rate of growth in vehicle miles traveled will increase 

at a lower rate than that experienced over the last 30 years. Over the next 30 years, several policy 

options will be critical to how highways are utilized, paid for, and maintained:

 Identifying sustainable funding mechanisms to offset the decreasing purchasing power of 

motor fuel taxes, and increasing federal credit assistance and private financing options for 

roadway improvements.

 Utilizing technology to create seamless intermodal travel routes, schedules, payment 

systems, and traveler information.

 Improving access to current and emerging shared transportation modes (bike share, car 

share, transit, etc.) through public education, affordability, and infrastructure investment.

 Prioritizing investments in key transportation corridors to provide reliable freight and 

passenger movement.

 Ensuring that states and law enforcement agencies take steps to address distracted driving.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 210

References

• Williamson, John. Congressional Research Service. 2012. Federal Aid to Roads and Highways Since the 18th Century: A Legislative History. January. 

(http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42140.pdf) 

• Weingroff, Richard F. Public Roads. “Federal Aid Road Act of 1916: Building the Foundation.” Summer 1996. 

(https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publicroads/96summer/p96su2.cfm)

• Row, Karen Stufflebeam, Eva LaDow, and Steve Moler. Public Roads. 2004. “Glenwood Canyon 12 Years Later.” March/April. 

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/publicroads/04mar/04.cfm)

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration and (FTA) Federal Transit Administration. 2013. 2013 Status of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions & 

Performance.

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/2013cpr/pdfs/cp2013.pdf) 

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-69: Annual Person-Hours of Highway Traffic Delay Per Auto Commuter.”

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_69.html)

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-36: Roadway Vehicle-Miles Traveled (VMT) and VMT per Lane-Mile by 

Functional Class (a).”

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_36.html)

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-4: Public Road and Street Mileage in the United States by Type of Surface.”

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_04.html) 

• Puentes, Robert. International Transport Forum. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 2013. Have Americans Hit Peak Travel? A 

discussion of the changes in U.S. driving habits. February. 

(http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/DiscussionPapers/DP201214.pdf)

• Santos, Adella, et. al. Federal Highway Administration. 2011. Summary of Travel Trends: 2009 National Household Travel Survey. June. 

(http://nhts.ornl.gov/2009/pub/stt.pdf)

• Schroeder, Ingrid and Anne Stauffer, et. al. The Pew Charitable Trusts. 2014. Intergovernmental Challenges in Surface Transportation Funding. September.

(http://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/Assets/2014/09/SurfaceTransportationIntergovernmentalChallengesFunding.pdf?la=en) 

• Status of the Highway Trust Fund. Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Highways and Transit, Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. 113th Cong. 

(2013). Statement of Kim P. Cawley, Chief, Natural and Physical Resources Cost Estimates Unit, Congressional Budget Office.

(http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/44434-HighwayTrustFund_Testimony.pdf)

• (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. 2013. 2012 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview. November. 

(http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811856.pdf)

• (CDC) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Injury Prevention & Control: Motor Vehicle Safety; “Impaired Driving: Get the Facts.”

(http://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/impaired_driving/impaired-drv_factsheet.html)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Highways and Motor Vehicles 211

• (CDC) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Injury Prevention & Control: Motor Vehicle Safety; “Distracted Driving.” 

(http://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/distracted_driving)

• (CDC) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Injury Prevention & Control: Motor Vehicle Safety; “Seat Belts: Get the Facts.” 

(http://www.cdc.gov/Motorvehiclesafety/seatbelts/facts.html)

• Grambsch, Anne. Environmental Protection Agency. 2002. “Climate Change and Air Quality.” The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation. October.

(http://climate.dot.gov/documents/workshop1002/workshop.pdf)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 212

Transit

Public transit is experiencing a resurgence. Public transit ridership is the highest it has been in 

more than 50 years. Over the past two decades public transit ridership has increased by nearly 25 

percent outpacing the rate of national population growth and VMT growth over the same period. 

Cities and counties across the country are expanding transit services – whether in traditional 

transit cities in the Northeast, such as New York City and Boston, or in the once exclusively autocentric cities of Los Angeles and Phoenix. Over the past decade, new rail transit systems have 

opened. Demand-response transit services, services that dispatch cars, vans or small buses to 

respond to reservations by riders are expanding rapidly, as well. Rural areas are even getting in on 

the act; today more than three quarters of all counties in America have some level of rural transit 

service. 

While nationwide transit only accounts for less than five percent of all trips to and from work, and 

approximately two percent of all trips, it performs a number of critical functions, including 

alleviating congestion and pollution in large metropolitan areas and providing a critical 

transportation option to those who cannot or choose not to drive. By one estimate if public 

transportation services in the 15 largest metropolitan areas in America were eliminated and their 

riders shifted to private vehicle travel, it would result in a 24 percent increase in traffic congestion 

and cost our economy more than $17 billion annually.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 213

Many of the trends highlighted in this document, such as growing urban populations or the 

emergence of ride-sourcing services could have a major impact on public transit over the next 30 

years. These trends include:

 Growing populations in metropolitan areas and changing attitudes towards travel will likely 

increase demand for transit services.

 Declining fuel tax revenues could constrain federal support for the expansion and 

maintenance of aging transit systems leading to increasing maintenance backlogs and higher 

transit fares.

 Enhanced information and communications technologies are improving the convenience of 

transit and the efficiency and responsiveness of transit services.

 Emerging vehicle technologies are providing opportunities for continued improvements to 

the safety and fuel efficiency of new transit vehicles.

 Climate change will increase the vulnerability of some transit systems, particularly those in 

low-lying areas, to flooding. 

History

In the 19th century, public transit was a popular, transformative innovation. As public transit 

modes developed from horse- and cable-drawn trolley systems to suburban rail services and, 

eventually, modern subways and motorized buses, workers and residents used them to seek respite 

from overcrowded city centers, pushing the boundaries of urban development outwards. Transit 

systems were privately-owned, profit-driven operations often established to support real estate 

ventures in the areas they would serve. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 214

The advent of the automobile, the creation of the modern 

freeway system, and the suburbanization of America’s 

population changed all of this. Public transit ridership 

peaked in 1946, and then declined rapidly. By 1963 

ridership had dropped to one third of its peak level. Local 

government agencies took over public transit systems, 

which were no longer profitable for private operators. 

When the Urban Mass Transportation Act of 1964 

established the agency now known as the Federal Transit 

Administration (FTA), the federal government began to 

provide assistance to those local agencies. Despite the 

federal role in transit, ridership flagged through the 

1990s, as Americans spent more and more of their time 

in cars. 

Increasing Ridership and Service

In the 1990s, after decades of public investments to 

improve and expand public transit services, ridership 

started to grow again. Over the past two decades, public 

transit ridership, led by increased rail transit system use, 

has grown by more than 20 percent, or approximately the 

same pace as metropolitan area population growth.

Increasing populations in urban areas and expansions in 

transit service have helped to spur increasing ridership. 

The fastest growing cities for sheer numbers of transit 

rides over the last 20 years include traditional transitoriented cities like New York, Washington, D.C., Boston, 

Philadelphia and Chicago as well as fast growing cities 

Who Uses Transit?

Public transit is as popular as it has 

been in 50 years. Transit use is 

growing across all age groups and 

ethnicities and in regions across the 

country. But, who are transit users?

Not surprisingly, transit users are 

more likely to live in areas with 

convenient and reliable transit 

systems. Transit users also tend to 

be regular riders; trips to work and 

school account for approximately 

70 percent of all trips. Those who 

earn less than $50,000 per year are 

more likely to be regular transit 

riders than those who earn between 

$50,000 and $150,000 per year.

Transit ridership is also higher 

among those who make more than 

$150,000 per year. Approximately 

30 percent of transit riders come 

from households that do not own a 

car. Finally, those under the age of 

30 are more than twice as likely as 

those over the age of 30 to use 

transit.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 215

with expanding transit systems such as Seattle, Miami, Las Vegas, Denver and San Diego. 

Many public transit agencies have substantially expanded service; since 1995, transit vehicle 

revenue service hours, a measure of transit service, have increased by 46 percent. Over that same 

time period, commuter rail service has increased by nearly 50 percent, while the amount of light 

rail service has more than doubled and on-demand paratransit services have tripled. 

Transit agencies are also investing in new buses, bus shelters, and fare systems to make bus 

services more accessible and convenient. While the use of traditional transit bus services has 

declined in recent decades, the use of on-demand services, van service and other innovative onthe-road transit services has increased rapidly. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems, where buses have 

priority right of way and operate at faster speeds, have been established in cities such as Boston,

Cleveland, Miami, Eugene, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, and Seattle.

Population growth in urban areas, increasing congestion on roadways, and changing attitudes 

towards travel are factors that are likely to contribute to continued gains in transit ridership over 

the next 30 years. Increased interest in the development of compact, mixed-use development near 

transit facilities, or transit-oriented development, may also help to increase transit ridership and 

conserve land in metropolitan areas. California, for example, is embarking on an ambitious 

program to build affordable housing near transit, as part of an effort to reduce greenhouse gas 

pollution from auto emissions.
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Significant progress has also been achieved in increasing the accessibility of transit station to 

Americans with disabilities. Over the past 20 years transit agencies have made major capital 

investments to make nearly all of America’s busiest public transit stations Americans with 

Disabilities Act (ADA) accessible. Today nearly all transit buses and two thirds of transit stations 

are ADA accessible.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 218

Rising Costs of Service

While ridership has increased over the past two decades, aging vehicles and infrastructure are 

increasing the costs of maintaining our public transit systems in a state of good repair. As a whole,

public transit systems in our nation face an estimated $86 billion backlog in preservation 

investments. At current levels of investment this backlog is expected to grow to $141 billion by 

2030. Addressing this investment backlog would require public transit agencies to increase their 

current spending on system preservation from approximately $10 billion to $18 billion annually.

As ridership grows, higher levels of investment will be needed to maintain the current level of 

service. To support the growth rate in ridership we’ve seen over the past 15 years at the same level 

of service, transit agencies would need to invest an estimated $7 billion annually in system 

expansion. To effectively maintain the conditions and level of service on our current transit 

systems, the vast majority of these investments would need to be made in higher-growth 

urbanized areas like New York, San Francisco, and Chicago, where they are most needed.

Generating funding sufficient to meet the growing needs of our public transit system will mean 

that governments will have to find ways to increase revenues to support transit. Increasing 

ridership can help increase the revenues from fares, but fares cover only about 23 percent of the 

nearly $60 billion spent annually to provide transit services in America. Beyond fare collection, the 

remainder of transit funding comes from various federal, state, local, and private sources. Federal, 

state and local fuel taxes provide approximately $10 billion in funding, while states and locals use 

sales and fuel tax revenues, general funds and other sources of dedicated tax revenues to pay for 

the difference.

Public transit systems in our nation face an estimated $86 billion 

backlog in preservation investments, a backlog that is expected to 

grow to $141 billion by 2030.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 219

Barring increased funding to address system preservation 

needs, public transit costs are likely to grow in the coming 

decades as systems continue to expand and age. Public 

transit operating costs are likely to increase as new transit 

services expand to less densely populated cities and an 

aging population drives demand for paratransit services. 

Meeting these needs will require innovative strategies to 

operate more efficiently and generate revenues to support 

targeted investments.

Technologies Transforming Public Transit

Improving information and communication technologies 

are increasing the convenience of transit by providing 

real-time schedule information and simple, seamless fare 

payment. The same technologies are making data on 

public transit increasingly easy to access and use, allowing

public transit agencies to improve operations. Information 

on trips by time of day, for example, can allow public 

transit agencies to model the impacts of different detours, 

lane closures, or route changes for bus services.

As data capabilities increase in the coming years, 

improved traffic and demand data could allow for more dynamic, demand-responsive scheduling 

and dispatching of buses potentially replacing some late night or mid-day fixed-route services. 

Using sensors and mobile technologies, transit systems could also be used as probes to collect 

information on traffic and roadway conditions for local and regional transportation agencies.

Improving Transit Safety

The passenger fatality rate on 

public transit is approximately one 

twentieth the rate of private 

motor vehicles, and the rate of 

transit fatalities has been more or 

less constant since 2004. 

Excluding suicides, the fatality 

rate for transit passengers is very 

low: one death for each 250 

million passenger miles traveled. 

Despite this impressive record, 

transit safety could still be 

improved – safety gains have been 

far slower than those seen in other 

modes, and several high profile 

rail transit safety incidents led to 

the extension of federal safety 

oversight to transit in 2012.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 220

In addition to data and mobile technologies, automation and connected vehicle technologies 

promises to improve the safety, efficiency and convenience of public transit activities. For 

example, signal systems at intersections can be connected to transit system information to allow 

for signal prioritization to ensure that buses stay on schedule and maintain headways. PTC, which 

uses digital and radio communications and GPS systems to allow dispatchers to remotely manage 

trains, has the potential to improve the efficiency of public transit costs and improve safety on 

transit rail systems. New urban transit systems constructed in the next 30 years will be able to 

take advantage of PTC and other automation technologies. Driverless vehicles, meanwhile, will 

improve the productivity of bus transit and potentially allow for the expansion of bus routes. 

Over the past decade public transit agencies have demonstrated that they are well poised to take 

advantage of advances in fuel cell technologies, electric vehicle engines, and other vehicle energy 

technologies to reduce emissions and save on fuel costs. The percentage of buses using compressed 

or LNG or biodiesel in our nation’s public transit fleet increased from 7 percent in 2000 to 26

percent in 2011. An additional nine percent of transit buses run on electric or hybrid-electric 

engines. As domestic production of natural gas expands, public transit agencies are likely to 

convert their buses to run on more efficient liquefied natural gas rather than diesel fuel or 

gasoline.

Adapting to Climate Change

Many of our busiest public transit systems, including those in the New York-Newark metropolitan 

area, serve coastal metropolitan areas that are highly vulnerable to sea level rise and frequent 

storm surges. Transit assets, such as subway or bus tunnels, rail yards, tracks, and control signals 

are often located underground and in low-lying areas and are especially vulnerable to flooding. To 

prepare for the effects of climate change, public transit agencies with at-risk assets will need to 

assess the resiliency of their assets to climate change hazards, such as heat waves and flooding, and 

develop adaptation strategies, such as retrofitting existing assets to prevent water incursion and 

siting new facilities outside of expanded flood plains. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 221
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Conclusion

In the next 30 years, public transit may take on a larger overall share of commuting and local nonwork travel. However, many factors influence an individual’s choice of travel mode, including 

availability, cost, and convenience. Expanding public transit would help promote mode-shift, but 

the benefits of these investments must be weighed with the costs, since expanding and 

maintaining rail transit infrastructure requires high initial investments and long-term financial 

commitment to reasonable levels of service and proper maintenance. Policy options to preserve 

and expand public transit’s vital role include:

 Investing in the reconstruction and rehabilitation of existing public transit services that are 

in critical need of repair.

 Decreasing total travel-time and increasing the reliability and frequency of public transit 

services.

 Investing in bus rapid transit services by converting existing general-purpose travel lanes 

into connected regional networks of dedicated bus-only right of way to greatly improve 

safety, access, travel speeds, frequency, and reliability.

 Identifying sustainable funding mechanisms to offset the decreasing purchase power of fuel 

taxes.

 Increasing use of performance measurements to direct funds for state of good repair.

 Promoting the use of common technologies and platforms to make transit payments more 

seamless and convenient.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 223

References

• Thompson, Louis S. Thompson Galenson and Associates. 2008. Public Transportation in the U.S.: History and Current Status. March.

(http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTURBANTRANSPORT/Resources/Thompson-PT-history-USA_08.pdf)

• American Public Transportation Association. 2013. 2013 Public Transportation Fact Book. October.

(http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/FactBook/2013-APTA-Fact-Book.pdf)

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration and (FTA) Federal Transit Administration. 2013. 2013 Status of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions & 

Performance.

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/2013cpr/pdfs/cp2013.pdf)

• Mattson, Jeremy. National Center for Transit Research. 2014. Rural Transit Fact Book 2014. August.

(http://www.surtc.org/transitfactbook/downloads/2014-rural-transit-fact-book.pdf)

• Neff, John and Matthew Dickens. American Public Transportation Association. 2014. 2014 Public Transportation Fact Book: Appendix A. September.

(http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/FactBook/2014-APTA-Fact-Book-Appendix-A.pdf)

• American Public Transportation Association. Resource Library; “Ridership Report Archives.” Analysis by Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center.

(http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Pages/RidershipArchives.aspx) 

• Tomer, Adie, et. al. The Brookings Institution. “Missed Opportunity: Transit and Jobs in Metropolitan America.” May 12, 2011.

(http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2011/05/12-jobs-and-transit)

• Lynott, Jana and Carlos Figueiredo. AARP Public Policy Institute. 2011. How the Travel Patterns of Older Adults Are Changing: Highlights from the 2009 National 

Household Travel Survey. April.

(http://assets.aarp.org/rgcenter/ppi/liv-com/fs218-transportation.pdf)

• Mattson, Jeremy. Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute. North Dakota State University. 2012. Travel Behavior and Mobility of Transportation-Disadvantaged 

Populations: Evidence from the National Household Travel Survey. December. 

(http://www.ugpti.org/pubs/pdf/DP258.pdf)

• (GAO) Government Accountability Office. 2012. “ADA Paratransit Services: Demand Has Increased, but Little is Known about Compliance. November. 

(http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/650079.pdf) 

• (FTA) Federal Transit Administration. 2013. Transit Profiles: 2012 Report Year Summary. October.

(http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/pubs/profiles/2012/Transit%20Profiles%202012%20Report%20Year%20Summary.pdf)

• (FTA) Federal Transit Administration. National Transit Database. Historical Data Files; “TS1 – Operating and Capital Funding.” 

(http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/data.htm)

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-8: ADA Lift- or Ramp-Equipped Transit Buses.”

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_08.html) 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Transit 224

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-9: ADA-Accessible Rail Transit Stations by Agency.”

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_09.html)

• (FTA) Federal Transit Administration. 2012. Fact Sheet: Transit Safety and Oversight. August.

(http://www.fta.dot.gov/documents/MAP-21_Fact_Sheet_-_Transit_Safety_and_Oversight.pdf)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pedestrians and Bicycles 225

Pedestrians and Bicycles

Walking and cycling offer an appealing, active, and affordable travel alternative for many 

Americans. Together, cycling and walking make up a substantial proportion of local trips that 

people take for non-work purposes, particularly in urban areas. Together, they account for 

approximately one half of all trips taken under one mile and more than 10 percent of all trips of 

any length. Over the next three decades, trends that will affect walking and cycling include:

 Cycling and walking will continue to grow in popularity as metropolitan areas grow in 

population, lifestyle preferences change, and infrastructure is adapted to accommodate their 

use.

 Cities and towns across the country will increasing invest in pedestrian and bicycle friendly 

infrastructure to accommodate increased demand for these modes.

 As people bicycle and walk more frequently, pedestrian and bicyclist safety will become an 

increasingly pressing issue for policymakers, particularly in urban areas.

Rising Popularity of Walking and Cycling

Since the 1960s, as our population has grown more suburban and automobile-oriented, cycling and 

walking have declined in popularity. In 1969, nearly half of all K-8th grade students walked or 

biked to school; today only 13 percent of children walk or bike to school. In 1980, 5.6 percent of 

Americans walked to work; in 2012, only 2.8 percent of Americans walked to work. However, there 

is evidence to suggest that Americans have been walking and bicycling more in recent years. For 

example, national travel survey data show that since 1995, walking has gone from 5 percent of all 

trips to more than 10 percent of all trips, mainly as a result of increases in walking for social and 

recreational purposes. While less than 1 percent of Americans bike to work on a regular basis, the 

number of regular cycling commuters has nearly doubled over the past decade.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pedestrians and Bicycles 226

In those cities that are densest— that have robust transit systems, high student populations, or 

where significant investments have been made in walking and biking facilities— walking to work 

or bicycling are more common. More than 10 percent of commuters walk to work in four American 

cities - Boston, Washington D.C., New York, and San Francisco. These cities also have very high 

public transit usage for commuting trips: New York at 56 percent, Washington, DC at 38 percent, 

San Francisco at 34 percent, and Boston at 33 percent. Portland, Oregon had the highest share of 

cycling commuters: 6.1 percent. 

Increasing Investments in Pedestrian- and Bike-Friendly Infrastructure

Legacy infrastructure designed to accommodate heavy automobile traffic complicates travel by 

walking or bicycling. Over the last decade, many cities have made a commitment to change this, 

adopting complete streets policies to ensure roads are designed for all users, including public 

transit vehicles, walkers, and cyclists. Techniques used to accommodate walking and bicycling 

include “road diets,” pedestrian and bicycling walk signals, and separated bicycle lanes. 

Cities throughout the country are expanding their bike lane networks. This is not only happening 

in large metropolises like New York City, San Francisco and Chicago, but bike lanes are in the 

planning or construction phases in Louisville, KY, Raleigh, NC, the Buckhead neighborhood of 

Atlanta, Ferndale, MI, Rutland, VT, and Elyria, OH. Several American cities have also introduced a 

new infrastructure element: bicycle sharing programs that put bicycles on the street for short-term 

rental. In cities in which such programs have been implemented, these systems have increased the 

use of bicycles, particularly as a way to make connections to public transit.

Over the next 30 years, American cities have planned tens of 

thousands of new bike facilities.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pedestrians and Bicycles 227

Federal funding for pedestrian and bicycle improvements increased significantly beginning in 

1991. Federal funding peaked in 2009 as a result of the federal stimulus programs, but overall 

spending levels remain more than double what they were a decade ago. In 2013, federal 

transportation programs provided $676 million in funding for pedestrian and bicycle facilities and 

programs. This amounted to approximately 2 percent of total federal transportation funding.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pedestrians and Bicycles 228

Safety Trends 

Safety for cyclists and walkers has improved significantly since 1990. The number of pedestrian 

and cyclist fatalities declined from 9,035 in 1980 to 5,469 in 2012 – a 41 percent reduction. 

Nevertheless, safety for the most vulnerable users of our transportation systems remains a 

problem, and we have not had the same success in reducing pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities that 

we have had in reducing highway fatalities. In fact, overall numbers of deaths among pedestrians 

and bicyclists have been steadily climbing since 2009, with the vast majority occurring in urban 

areas. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pedestrians and Bicycles 229

Policy Implications

The following policy options can help build upon recent advances to ensure continued growth and 

improved safety in cycling and walking over the next 30 years:

 Incentivizing improved pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure and mixed-use development in 

and around multimodal transit hubs to promote car-free travel;

 Designing and retrofitting of roads to allow for safe, harmonious passage of vehicles, 

bicycles, and pedestrians, including individuals who use assisted mobility devices

 Educating drivers, bicyclists and pedestrians on their legal responsibilities and sound 

practices to safely share public streets; and,

 Promoting policies that advance safe and independent mobility for people with disabilities 

and older adults.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pedestrians and Bicycles 230

References

• National Center for Safe Routes to School. 2011. How Children Get to School: School Travel Patterns From 1969 to 2009. November.

(http://saferoutesinfo.org/sites/default/files/resources/NHTS_school_travel_report_2011_0.pdf)

• McKenzie, Brian. Bureau of the Census. 2014. Modes Less Traveled: Bicycling and Walking to Work in the United States 2008-2012. May. 

(http://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/acs-25.pdf)

• (NHTSA) National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Fatality Analysis Reporting System; “Index of /fars/” Analysis by Volpe, the National Transportation 

Systems Center. 

(ftp://ftp.nhtsa.dot.gov/fars) 

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. Bicycle & Pedestrian; “Federal-Aid Highway Program Funding for Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities and Programs.” 

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/bicycle_pedestrian/funding/bipedfund.cfm) 

• (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Today in Energy. “U.S. household expenditures for gasoline account for nearly 4% of pretax income.” February 4, 2013.

(http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9831)

• (BOC) Bureau of the Census. “Growth in Urban Population Outpaces Rest of Nation, Census Bureau Reports.” News release. March 26, 2012.

(https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/2010_census/cb12-50.html)

• Frey, William H. The Brookings Institution. “Demographic Reversal: Cities Thrive, Suburbs Sputter.” June 29, 2012. 

(http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/06/29-cities-suburbs-frey) 

• American Public Transportation Association. Pedestrian and Bicycle Information Center. Who’s Walking and Bicycling; “Daily Travel Information.” 

(http://www.pedbikeinfo.org/data/factsheet_general.cfm) 

• TransitCenter. 2014. Who’s On Board 2014: Mobility Attitudes Survey.

(http://transitcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/WhosOnBoard2014-ForWeb.pdf)

• (BOC) Bureau of the Census. American Fact Finder; “2010 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.”

(http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t)

• Milne, Andrea, and Maggie Melin. Alliance for Biking & Walking. 2014. Bicycling and Walking in the United States: 2014 Benchmarking Report.

(https://www.bikewalkalliance.org/storage/documents/reports/2014BenchmarkingReport.pdf)

• (DOT) Department of Transportation. 2014. Safer People, Safer Streets: Summary of U.S. Department of Transportation Action Plan to Increase Walking and Biking and 

Reduce Pedestrian and Bicyclist Fatalities. September.

(http://www.dot.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/safer_people_safer_streets_summary_doc_acc_v1-11-9.pdf)

• (CDC) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity. 2011. The CDC Guide to Strategies to Increase Physical 

Activity in the Community.

(http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/downloads/PA_2011_WEB.pdf)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pedestrians and Bicycles 231

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. Bicycle & Pedestrian Program; “Federal-Aid Highway Program Funding for Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities and 

Programs.”

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/bicycle_pedestrian/funding/bipedfund.cfm)

• Leinberger, Christopher B. and Mariela Alfonzo. The Brookings Institution. “Walk this Way: The Economic Promise of Walkable Places in Metropolitan 

Washington, D.C.” May 25, 2012.

(http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2012/05/25-walkable-places-leinberger)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 232

Aviation

Our air transportation system connects friends and families across the country, supports national 

and international business travel, and enables the fast delivery of time sensitive goods. A wellfunctioning aviation system is critical to ensuring our economic growth and way of life. Making up 

a significant component of this system, U.S. commercial airlines operate on average, over 29,000 

domestic and international flights every day carrying an average of 2 million passengers and 

21,000 tons of cargo. Another crucial component of our aviation system is general aviation, whose

airports form an extensive network and make important economic contributions to society, 

providing access when scheduled service is either not available or inconvenient.

Over the next 30 years advancing technology and increasing demand for air travel will present 

challenges and opportunities that will demand flexible and innovative responses from government 

and industry. Trends that are expected to impact aviation in the coming years include:

• Growing demand for air passenger and cargo traffic will increase air congestion and impact 

service, particularly at busy metropolitan airports.

• The maintenance backlog on our aging air traffic control facilities and equipment will 

increase.

• NextGen technologies will be gradually implemented across our aviation system leading to 

safety improvements, reduced delays, and increased fuel efficiency.

• The commercial use of unmanned aircraft systems and space travel will grow as technical, 

regulatory and operational challenges are gradually overcome.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 233

History

The American civil aviation system began as a government-run air mail system in the early 1900s. 

As air travel became safer, faster and more convenient its popularity grew and by the 1950s air 

travel became the mode of choice for long distance travel. From the passage of the Air Commerce 

Act in 1926, the federal government has taken steps to foster air commerce and ensure the safety 

of the air transportation system. After World War II air traffic control became a federal 

responsibility at most airports. In 1958, the Federal Aviation Agency was established, and has been 

known as the Federal Aviation Administration since 1967, when it became part of the newly 

established Department of Transportation DOT. The Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, created a 

highly competitive airline industry, which in turn increased FAA workload exponentially. Since its 

establishment, the FAA has worked to modernize the air traffic control system, enhance safety and 

security throughout the system.

Growing Demand for Air Travel

Air travel has grown steadily since the end of the Great 

Recession and is expected to continue to grow in the 

coming years as economic and population growth and an 

increasingly globalized economy drive demand for 

domestic and international air travel. The total number 

of people flying on U.S. airlines is expected to increase by 

approximately 50 percent over the next two decades, 

while international air travel to and from the United 

States will more than double. This could lead to 

increased workloads for air traffic controllers and

potentially increase congestion at certain busy airports.

Flight delays and congestion cost the economy more 

than $20 billion each year. In 2014 only 76 percent of 

10 Worst Airports for Delays

(Percent of On-Time Flights in 2013)

Newark, NJ 70.4%

New York, NY 72.2%

San Francisco, CA 72.7%

Chicago, IL 73.5%

New York, NY 75.0%

Fort Lauderdale, FL 75.3%

Philadelphia, PA 76.0%

Denver, CO 76.8%

Chicago, IL 77.2%

Washington, DC 77.5%

Dallas/Fort Worth, TX 78.12%
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 234

domestic flights by U.S. air carriers arrived on time. 

While many flight delays are due to weather, high 

airport terminal volumes are a factor in approximately 

20 percent of all of flight delays. Some of the busiest 

airports in the country including the three major New 

York-area airports—Kennedy, La Guardia, and 

Newark—as well as San Francisco International, 

Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Chicago O’Hare, suffer from 

high levels of delays which can cause delays throughout 

the national aviation system. In 2010, a GAO review of 

FAA data found that 80 percent of all departure delays 

can be traced back to seven airports. 

A Dynamic Aviation Industry

Since the turn of the century the commercial air carrier 

industry has suffered several major shocks that have 

led to volatile demand for air travel including the 

terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, rising fuel 

costs, and a severe global recession. In response,

airlines have adjusted their business models to lower operating costs, eliminated unprofitable 

routes, and grounded older, less fuel efficient planes. Starting in 2010, the passenger and cargo 

airline industries have posted net profits. While the average cost of a roundtrip ticket in inflationadjusted dollars has dropped 15 percent over the last 20 years, many airlines have found ways to 

generate additional revenue by charging for services, such as bag fees, that had been previously 

included in the price of a ticket and by increasing the number of paying passengers on each flight.

Load factor—the percentage of seats carrying passengers—increased from 69 percent in the 1990s 

to 83 percent today.

General Aviation

Most air travelers pass through our 

389 primary airports. However, there 

are more than 19,000 airports, 

heliports, seaplane bases, and other 

landing facilities in America, the 

majority of which are used primarily 

for general aviation. General aviation 

airports provide a variety of 

specialized functions, such as access 

to remote communities, emergency 

medical services, firefighting, law 

enforcement and border control, 

flight training, freight and business 

transportation, agricultural services, 

and recreational aviation.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 235

To save costs and increase revenues many airlines are gradually shifting to larger jets that carry 

more passengers per flight. Industry consolidation and streamlining is also leading to reductions in 

the number of flights that service smaller, less profitable airports. This has reduced access in 

smaller communities where it may no longer be economically viable to provide service with larger 

aircraft. Between 2007 and 2012, 24 small airports lost network carrier services.

Modernizing our Nation’s Air Traffic System

To make best use of emerging technology to meet the needs of the flying public, the FAA has 

committed to major investments in NextGen. NextGen is a wide-ranging transformation of the air 

transportation system, including air traffic management technologies and procedures; airport 

infrastructure improvements; and environmental, safety and security related enhancements.

NextGen technologies use satellite navigation to allow planes to fly more direct routes closer 

together, saving fuel and reducing delays.

The overall vision of this system includes the use of digital communication, satellite surveillance, 

improved navigation technologies and more advanced safety systems to increase the capacity of 

the national airspace system and the predictability of flights. New digital technologies will improve 

flight and weather information and enhance communications among pilots and air traffic 

controllers. FAA estimates that over the next 15 years NextGen could result in more than $130 

billion in social benefits from avoided delays and cancellations, reduced flight times and other 

benefits.

Significant financial investment from the aviation industry and the public is required to achieve 

the benefits of NextGen. The FAA’s total investment in NextGen is projected to be $14 billion 

from 2013 to 2030 in addition to the costs necessary to continue to operate and maintain existing 

systems and infrastructure.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 236

Many NextGen benefits require large numbers of aircraft with the necessary avionics to be 

equipped in order to accrue the maximum amount of benefit. Some commercial aircraft are already 

equipped with the building blocks for certain NextGen capabilities but retrofitting previously 

unequipped aircraft could prove costly to operators. In 2014, cost estimates to retrofit one 

commercial aircraft with the required foundational NextGen technologies range from $135,000 to 

$150,000, whereas for general aviation aircraft the costs are estimated to be between $14,000 and 

$15,000 and estimates to retrofit avionics that would take full advantage of more advanced 

NextGen operations have ranged up to $525,000 per commercial aircraft. FAA estimates that over 

the next 15 years, $15 billion in expenditures are required from aircraft operators to equip their 

aircraft with NextGen avionics.

The Airport and Airway Trust Fund (AATF) provides the primary source of funding for FAA and 

receives revenues principally from a variety of excise taxes paid by users of the national airspace 

system. In the last five fiscal years, approximately 60 percent of FAA funding was dedicated to 

operating our air traffic control system and safety programs. About 20 percent of funding was for 

the Airport Improvement Program (AIP), which provides grants to airports for projects that 

generally enhance capacity, safety, or environmental concerns, such as runway construction and 

rehabilitation, airfield lighting, and airplane noise mitigation. Remaining FAA funds are used for 

modernization and maintenance of air traffic facilities and equipment, and research, engineering, 

and development of new air traffic technologies, such as NextGen.

Constrained budgets have resulted in deferral of maintenance of today’s air traffic control system 

infrastructure over the last several years, placing at risk reliability in operations and resilience in 

emergency situations. Some types of critical air traffic control facilities are many decades old, 

though replacing and/or consolidating them requires substantial investment. Under the current 

budget environment, FAA’s maintenance backlog is expected to continue growing.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 237

Running a complex enterprise operating 24 hours a day while undertaking as large and 

sophisticated an infrastructure project as modernizing the entire national airspace system 

presents governance challenges, especially in the face of conflicting priorities within constrained 

budgets. The FAA has improved program management focus and increased collaboration with 

industry—resulting in improved safety, program performance, and aligned prioritization with 

industry on which NextGen capabilities to deploy together over the next few years—but continues 

to seek opportunities for further improvements.

Integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems 

In recent years private sector interest in UAS has increased at a rapid rate. The private sector sees 

the potential for a wide range of uses of UAS from crop dusting and land surveying to 

humanitarian disaster response and filmmaking. A recent U.S. DOT report commissioned by the 

United States Air Force estimated that between public and commercial uses, there total number of 

UAS vehicles in operation will reach 250,000 by the year 2035. 

FAA first allowed the use of UAS in the national airspace system in 1990. Most UAS that are 

allowed to operate today are used for security, research, and environmental monitoring purposes. 

UAS operations over major urban areas, where there tend to be high densities of manned aircraft,

is limited and approved on a case-by-case basis. Existing restrictions on the use of UAS have been 

based around concerns about the safety and intent of use of these vehicles. New regulations 

targeted at the phased integration of UAS are in development.

Beginning in 2013, there are six test sites around the country conducting UAS research. In order to 

safely integrate UAS into national airspace system, several technical and procedural hurdles will 

have to be overcome (e.g. making sure UAS can detect and avoid other aircraft and maintain 

communication with pilots). The FAA is pursuing a phased integration of UAS. This gradual 

process is intended to ensure safety and manage risk to the national airspace system.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 238

A full regulatory framework agreement on certification and technology standards, and procedures 

to collect and analyze safety data are still challenges that need to be met in order to ensure that 

UAS operate effectively and safely. 

Safety Trends 

Over the last 50 years, taking a flight in a commercial aircraft has become the safest possible 

means of travel. Aviation accident rates have declined dramatically since the 1960s. Today, 

commercial aviation accidents with fatalities are exceedingly rare—some 99.997 percent of air 

traffic operations occur without safety or 

compliance incidents. On average, a person could fly 

every single day for 50,000 years and still not be 

involved in a fatal crash. In 2013 there were over 

800 million passenger miles flown without a single 

air carrier fatality. Globally, the accident rates for 

scheduled commercial flight fell by 36 percent from 

2005 to 2013 and the fatality rate fell by 82 percent, 

to 5.4 deaths per million scheduled commercial 

flight.

Advancements in safety are the result of improving 

technologies, better training, effective regulation

and the use of a risk-based approach to safety 

management. The aviation system and regulators 

systematically analyze and learn from safety 

incidents. Sophisticated aircraft systems and 

modern air traffic control technologies also improve 

the situational awareness of pilots and air traffic 

controllers. Today, the FAA increasingly uses tools 

Commercial Space Transportation

Commercial space transportation and 

the services it enables, such as weather 

forecasts, emergency and disaster 

response, and credit card payments, 

accounted for more than $208 billion in 

economic activity in 2009. Today, 

commercial space transportation is used 

for launching satellites into orbit, as well 

as delivering cargo to and from the 

International Space Station and 

conducting science and technology 

demonstrations. There is also increasing 

momentum behind space tourism—

space travel flights for the general 

public. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 239

and techniques for data recording, collection, reporting, and analysis that allow for early 

identification, assessment and mitigation of safety risks. These tools and techniques provide FAA 

with access to an abundance of safety data, allowing them to make smarter, data-driven, risk-based 

decisions and, with industry and global partners, to identify emerging hazards and predict the 

associated safety risks before they 

become accidents.

This data-driven approach helps 

FAA improve safety and informs 

the agency’s policies, standards, 

and training programs. Due to the 

extremely low rate of casualties in 

air travel, it is becoming necessary 

to employ data and analysis more 

effectively in order to prevent 

crashes before they occur, rather 

than analyzing accidents that have 

already happened. The future will 

require us to move away from the 

forensics towards a more 

predictive safety analysis 

approach. Safety challenges for 

aviation in the future are likely to be focused around the introduction of new technology and the 

safe entry of new types of aircraft into the system (e.g. space launches, unmanned aircraft 

systems) and the maintenance of high levels of safety around increasingly congested hub airports.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 240

Policy Implications

Aviation has changed much in the past 30 years and will undoubtedly continue to evolve over the 

next 30 years, as new technologies are introduced and the population and economy grows. Policy 

options that will influence the future course of the aviation system include:

 Ensuring that sufficient revenue is available to support the operating and capital needs of 

our national airspace system.

 Balancing the system’s multiple and sometimes conflicting needs for modernization, 

maintenance, access, efficiency, capacity, environmental sustainability, and services.

 Enabling the safe integration of commercial space flights and unmanned aircraft systems 

into the NAS while minimizing risk to other users of the system.

 Shifting to a more collaborative, data-informed and risk-based safety management approach 

to proactively address emerging safety risks.

 Improving surface access to airports for passengers and freight.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Aviation 241

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(https://www.oig.dot.gov/sites/default/files/FAA%20Oversight%20of%20Unmanned%20Aircraft%20Systems%5E6-26-14.pdf)

• Electronic Privacy Information Center. Domestic Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Drones; “Privacy Issues.”

(http://epic.org/privacy/drones/#privacy)

• (FAA) Federal Aviation Administration. 2010. The Economic Impact of Commercial Space Transportation on the U.S. Economy in 2009. September.

(https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/media/Economic%20Impact%20Study%20September%202010_20101026_PS.pdf)

• (NASA) National Aeronautics and Space Administration. NASA HQ Library: “Space Commercialization and Space Tourism.” March 2011. 

(http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/hqlibrary/pathfinders/spacetourism.htm)

• Fields, Liz. ABC News. “What Are the Odds of Surviving a Plane Crash?” March 12, 2014.

(http://abcnews.go.com/International/odds-surviving-plane-crash/story?id=22886654)

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. U.S. Air Carrier Traffic Statistics; “Monthly - System.”

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/acts)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 245

Intercity Rail

Our intercity passenger and freight rail networks are a vital component of America’s vast 

intermodal transportation network. The intercity passenger rail system operated by Amtrak 

carries millions of passengers each year to destinations across the country. Freight rail is a $70 

billion industry connecting U.S. consumers to agricultural, economic, logistics and manufacturing 

centers.

Trends that will impact the performance of our passenger and freight rail system over the next 30 

years include:

 Demand for speedy and reliable passenger rail service in growing megaregions will continue 

to increase.

 Ridership growth will result in continuing improvements to Amtrak’s financial performance, 

but, absent sustainable federal funding, Amtrak will continue to face challenges meeting the 

costs of providing national passenger rail service. 

 Increasing freight rail demand will increase pressure to address freight chokepoints and 

resolve passenger-freight conflicts.

 Continued emphasis on rail safety will lead to sustained safety improvements.

Intercity Passenger Rail

Amtrak operates our intercity passenger rail system. Amtrak was created by the 1970 Rail 

Passenger Service Act in order to assure the continuation of passenger train service given financial 

turmoil in the private rail industry at the time. Amtrak operates as a national public-private 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 246

corporation, operating a national rail network of more than 21,000 route miles serving more than 

500 destinations in 46 states, the District of Columbia and three Canadian provinces. 

Rising Passenger Rail Ridership

Our intercity passenger rail system carries more than 30 million passengers each year. Millions 

more passengers ride commuter trains over tracks that are often shared with Amtrak and freight 

trains. Although Amtrak trips comprise less than one percent of all domestic intercity trips, 

Amtrak’s ridership has grown in recent years.Annual ridership has grown by more than 50 percent 

since 1993, with total passenger trips reaching 30.9 million in Fiscal Year 2014. Increasing 

popularity among young adults and improvements in service such as e-ticketing and improving 

broadband access are helping to drive demand. 

Passenger rail service is an attractive alternative for intercity travel, particularly for trips between 

100 and 500 miles. Well over 85% of all passenger trips on Amtrak are for journeys less than 250 

miles, while less than 5% of trips are for journeys more than 400 miles. Amtrak ridership is 

especially strong in growing megaregions such as the Northeast Corridor, the Chicago Hub area, 

and the West Coast. More than one out of every three Amtrak passengers travel along the 

Northeast Corridor between Washington, D.C., New York, and Boston.

Amtrak-owned infrastructure also supports critical commuter rail services particularly in the 

northeast corridor. An average of more than 847,000 people every weekday depend on commuter 

rail services that use Amtrak-owned infrastructure and shared operations. In addition, states 

provide intercity passenger rail corridor services across the country through operating contracts 

with Amtrak. These state-supported routes carry nearly half of all of Amtrak’s passengers. This 

arrangement is part of a shift in the passenger rail service industry away from centralized Amtrakoperated services toward more services funded, managed, and overseen by states and localities. 

While this shift is only just beginning, it could ultimately result in the creation of intercity 

operators other than Amtrak.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 247

In the next 30 years, the American population will grow 

by 23 percent, increasing demand for personal travel 

across all modes, including rail. As the American 

population grows and the population and economy 

become increasingly centered in major metropolitan 

areas, passenger rail could become a more attractive 

option for many travelers. Increasing highway and 

airport congestion could also make passenger rail a more 

competitive alternative. Other social and cultural 

changes, such as changing attitudes toward driving,

especially among young adults, may also influence future 

ridership. In the future, higher-speed rail service in 

dense population corridors could increase travel options 

for intercity travelers and help to relieve growth in 

congestion on highways and at busy airports in major 

metropolitan areas. 

Funding Passenger Rail to Address Growing Demand

Unlike highways, transit, and aviation, passenger rail 

lacks a source of predictable, dedicated funding. Revenues from passenger rail tickets are Amtrak’s 

primary source of funding. In Fiscal Year 2014, Amtrak earned a record setting $2.2 billion in 

ticket revenues, of which more than half were generated on the Northeast Corridor. On top of its 

annual revenues, Amtrak receives approximately $1.5 billion in federal appropriations each year. 

In 2014, Congress provided more than $1 billion in grants for capital expenses and debt service 

and $340 million in grants for operating costs. 

High Speed Intercity Rail

The FRA’s High Speed Intercity Rail 

Program has provided $10 billion in 

grant funding to states along critical 

rail corridors. Several projects are 

currently underway, including 

nearly $1 billion in investment to 

upgrade the Northeast Corridor, 

$3.9 billion to lay the groundwork 

for high speed rail in California, and 

$1.9 billion for track upgrades in the 

Midwest. With the exception of high 

speed rail in California, these 

projects have largely focused on 

upgrading existing track and 

vehicles to improve speeds and 

reduce delays.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 248

Ticket sales for popular routes, such as the Northeast 

Corridor, produce an operating surplus for Amtrak that 

defrays, but does not fully cover the operating costs of 

long-distance routes. Although Amtrak’s 15 longdistance lines comprise only a small percentage of all 

intercity trips by rail, they offer the only intercity 

transportation alternatives in many areas. Five percent 

of Amtrak riders travel to or from communities that are 

underserved by intercity bus and airline operators. 

Highways, transit, aviation, inland waterways, ports and 

harbors all benefit from dedicated trust funds. Rail is 

unique in that it lacks a committed source of federal 

revenue. As a result, passenger rail capital investments 

have generally failed to keep up with the needs of 

existing fleet and infrastructure, leading to a backlog of 

state of good repair and other basic infrastructure

needs. There is currently a multi-billion dollar backlog of 

projects required to maintain a state of good repair on 

our nation’s rails, as well as a significant deficit in the 

capital funding available for maintaining assets and 

adding capacity for anticipated increases in demand. The 

Northeast Corridor alone requires investments of nearly 

$1.5 billion per year over 15 years to bring the corridor 

into a state of good repair and maintain it in that 

condition. 

Short-Line Railroads

While Class 1 railroads generate 

over 95 percent of all freight rail 

revenues in America, they own and 

maintain less than 70 percent of 

America’s rail miles. Most of the 

remaining rail miles are owned by 

small and medium railroad 

companies, including short-line 

railroads that serve a small number 

of towns and industries. Many 

short-line railroads lack the capital

to make the investments necessary 

to maintain a state of good repair. 

With limited annual revenues, these 

rail operators may struggle to meet 

current and future freight demand. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 249

Freight Rail

America’s freight rail system consists of over 140,000 

route miles connecting consumers to agricultural, 

economic, manufacturing, and population centers. An 

indispensable aspect of our freight infrastructure, 

railroads move roughly 39 percent of all intercity 

freight ton-miles in America each year. Rail is the 

predominant mode of transportation for heavy bulk 

commodities like coal, grain and minerals and for high 

valued cargo, such as intermodal traffic, traveling 

between 750 and 2000 miles. Freight rail is a $70

billion industry comprising over 560 regional and 

short-line freight railroads, including seven “Class 1” 

railroads that represent the bulk of the industry’s rail 

mileage, revenues and workforce. 

Meeting Freight Rail Demand

After the Staggers Rail Act partially deregulated rail 

freight in 1980, shipping rates for all railroads 

declined by more than 30 percent, and rail freight 

traffic has nearly doubled. Railroads have generated record revenues by growing traffic and 

concentrating on highly-trafficked railroad lines. The number of privately operated rail miles has 

declined by more than 40 percent and the workforce has fallen by more than half. 

The volume of goods moved by rail has increased steadily since 1980, and is projected to increase 

by over 37 percent through 2045. With increases in passenger traffic and freight demand, track 

Intermodal Container Traffic

Intermodal container traffic is one of 

the fastest growing segment of the 

freight rail industry and currently 

accounts for 11 percent of rail freight. 

The use of intermodal transfers in 

large containers has greatly improved 

the efficiency of freight rail by 

reducing handling time and labor costs 

for non-bulk commodities. Although 

the growth in container transportation 

has affected freight movement by all 

modes, the productivity of freight 

railroads has improved dramatically 

due to the growth in intermodal 

freight and the development of 

practices such as double-stack rail 

transport. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 250

congestion may increase, especially in higher-traffic passenger corridors. Growing congestion may 

reduce the reliability of the railway network for both freight and passenger movements.

Meeting this growing demand will require substantial investments led by the private rail industry 

in rail capacity. Unlike most other modes of transportation, rail operates on infrastructure that is 

built and maintained as private infrastructure. As such, private railroads invest a high percentage 

of their revenues to maintain and add capacity to their system, including more than $25 billion in 

both 2012 and 2013. Since 1980, freight railroads have spent $550 billion on these investments.

To meet burgeoning freight demand effective investments in U.S. transportation infrastructure 

must be made and innovative transportation solutions must be considered. One way to do this is 

to form public-private partnerships where private companies and governments cooperate 

to maintain, improve, and expand transportation infrastructure. Rail transportation investments 

provided by public-private partnerships are an effective way to meet future transportation 

challenges while at the same time providing significant public benefits such as reductions in road 

congestion, highway fatalities, fuel consumption and greenhouse gasses, logistics costs, and public 

infrastructure maintenance costs. Public-private partnerships may also help to resolve freight 

chokepoints, particularly where freight and passenger traffic operate on the same track.

As new rail projects emerge and private participation increases, federal regulatory agencies, such as 

the Surface Transportation Board, the regulatory agency that authorizes rail construction, 

abandonments, and other transactions, may face increasing demands for timely decisions and 

oversight.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 251
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 252

Improving Rail Safety

Rail transportation is safe and getting safer. Train accident rates, already low, steadily declined 

since the 1990s. Fatal accidents involving employees have been cut in half since the early 1990s. 

The vast majority of fatal train accidents—96 percent—are related to trespassing or highway-rail 

grade crossing incidents. Trespassing fatalities have remained high over the same period and now 

account for 60 percent of all train-related fatalities. Continued focus on safety by Amtrak and

Class 1 railroads, the adoption of safety management systems, fostering of a safety culture at rail 

agencies, and the research, development and implementation of new safety technologies and 

practices will continue to drive safety improvements in the future.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 253

Policy Implications

Increasingly interconnected communities and mega-regions drive a need for strong intercity 

transportation connections for both people and goods. Passenger and freight rail services compete 

for limited capacity in some markets, although there are policy options available that can help to 

align incentives and achieve a more collaborative working environment:

 Encourage public private partnerships and new models for the shared use of privately-owned 

freight rail lines that identify incentives to encourage more efficient passenger and freight 

movements.

 Focus federal investment in research, development and technology to accelerate safety 

technology while creating a regulatory structure that incentivizes advanced safety 

technology. 

Current public funding levels are not able to meet the coming transportation demand or fully fund 

the replacement of legacy infrastructure; however, steps can be taken to leverage current funding 

and spur more investment:

 Continue investment in high-performance passenger and freight rail, through track and 

vehicle upgrades, particularly on shared use corridors and those for which cost-effective 

improvements will make passenger train travel both price and time competitive with the 

automobile and aviation markets.

 Provide a predictable dedicated funding source for rail projects, which allows for current 

projects to advance, while spurring the development of a pipeline of new projects and 

encouraging private participation by reducing uncertainty.

 Explore new models of public-private partnerships that more clearly identifies public and 

private benefits of projects to enable the inclusion of a broader spectrum of public and 

private sector participants. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 254

References

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Long Distance Travel Patterns; “Table 4: Percent of Trips by Mode for One Way Travel Distance.”

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/america_on_the_go/long_distance_transportation_patterns/html/table_04.html)

• Neff, John and Matthew Dickens. American Public Transportation Association. 2014. 2014 Public Transportation Fact Book: Appendix A. September.

(http://www.apta.com/resources/statistics/Documents/FactBook/2014-APTA-Fact-Book-Appendix-A.pdf)

• The Brookings Institution. “U.S. Passenger Rail Ridership.” March 1, 2013.

(http://www.brookings.edu/research/interactives/2013/amtrakroutes)

• Amtrak. 2012. Annual Report Fiscal Year 2012.

(http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/103/360/Amtrak-Annual-Report-2012.pdf)

• Amtrak. 2014. National Fact Sheet: FY 2013.

(http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/826/406/Amtrak-National-Fact-Sheet-FY2013-rev.pdf)

• Peterman, David Randall, John Frittelli, and William J. Mallet. Congressional Research Service. 2013. The Development of High Speed Rail in the United States: Issues 

and Recent Events. December.

(http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42584.pdf)

• (FRA) Federal Railroad Administration. Rail Development Network; “Freight Rail Today.”

(https://www.fra.dot.gov/Page/P0362)

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National Transportation Statistics; “Table 1-50: U.S. Ton-Miles of Freight.”

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_50.html)

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. Freight Facts and Figures 2013; “Figure 2-3a. Mode Share of Freight Ton-Miles by Distance Band: 2007.”

(http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/docs/13factsfigures/figure2_03a.htm)

• (BLS) Bureau of Labor Statistics. Top Picks: Producer Price Index-Industry Data. Select, “Line-haul railroads.” 

(http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?pc)

• Palley, Joel. Federal Railroad Administration. 2013. Freight Railroads Background. April.

(https://www.fra.dot.gov/eLib/Details/L03011)

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. Freight Facts and Figures 2013; “Tables 2-1 and 2-1M. Weight of Shipments by Transportation Mode: 2007, 2012, and 

2040.”

(http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/docs/13factsfigures/table2_01.htm) 

• Puentes, Robert, Adie Tomer, and Joseph Kane. 2013. The Brookings Institution. A New Alignment: Strengthening America’s Commitment to Passenger Rail. March.

(http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Research/Files/Reports/2013/03/01%20passenger%20rail%20puentes%20tomer/passenger%20rail%20puentes%20tomer.

pdf)

• (CBO) Congressional Budget Office. Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2014 to 2023; “Discretionary Spending: Function 400 – Transportation.” November 13, 2013.

(http://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2013/44782)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Intercity Rail 255

• American Society of Civil Engineers. 2013. 2013 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure. March.

(http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/a/#p/home)

• Association of American Railroads. Private Rail Investments Power America’s Economy: Freight Railroads Have Invested $550 Billion into the National Rail Network Since 

1980.

(http://freightrailworks.org/wp-content/uploads/FRW-Investments2.pdf)

• Amtrak. 2009. Northeast Corridor State of Good Repair Spend Plan. April.

(http://www.amtrak.com/ccurl/771/1002/NEC_StateOfGoodRepair_PRIIA.pdf)

• Association of American Railroads. 2013. Class I Railroad Statistics. January.

(https://www.aar.org/StatisticsAndPublications/Documents/AAR-Stats-2013-01-10.pdf)

• Nussbaum, Paul. The Philadelphia Inquirer. “$700M in repairs needed for Amtrak tunnels in and out of New York.” October 4, 2014.

(http://articles.philly.com/2014-10-04/business/54603970_1_northeast-corridor-tunnels-craig-schulz)

• Association of American Railroads. Positive Train Control; “Ensuring the Successful Deployment of Advanced Safety Technology.” 

(https://www.aar.org/policy/positive-train-control)

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. National Transportation Statistics; (Table 2-39: Railroad and Grade-Crossing Fatalities by Victim Class.”

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_02_39.html)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Marine 256

Marine

America’s rivers and waterways formed the nation’s first freight corridors. In the early nineteenth 

century, substantial public, private and state resources were invested in canals and ports, which 

functioned as engines of economic development in the pre-railroad era. Even as railroads and 

highways spread across the nation, today’s marine transportation system, made up of inland 

waterways and ports, coastal routes and deep water ports, is still the foundation of our robust 

international and domestic trade and will remain so for the foreseeable future. 

Looking to the future, several critical trends will have a major impact on the performance of the 

critical marine links in our transportation system, they include:

 Increasing imports and exports and containerized freight will lead to greater congestion at 

America’s coastal and inland ports.

 Investments in ports, harbors and waterways will be essential to meet the demand of 

increased global trade and competition.

 Automation will improve the productivity and efficiency of marine transportation and ports.

Increasing Global Trade and Intermodal Freight

In 2013, total exports and imports reached a value of $3.9 trillion, or approximately 23 percent of 

U.S. Gross Domestic Product. In the next 30 years, it is reasonable to expect that the volume of 

imports and exports transported by sea will continue to grow with dramatic implications for 

America’s ports and transportation system. 

Deep water ports on every coast handle over 70 percent of our nation’s imports and exports by 

weight and are a vital link in our globalized economy. Ports along the Gulf Coast, such as South 

Louisiana, Houston, New Orleans and Beaumont, handle much of the petroleum, gas, steel, coal 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Marine 257

and grain entering and leaving the United States. 

Three ports, Los Angeles, Long Beach, and New 

York/New Jersey handle 49 percent of all foreign 

containerized trade entering and exiting the United 

States. In fact, 10 ports account for 85 percent of our 

nation’s containerized international trade. This 

concentration provides an opportunity for America to 

focus its resources on expanding the capacity of our 

most important ports. But, it also makes our entire 

freight system vulnerable to disruption or delay due 

to natural disasters or security incidents.

At the same time, container ships will continue to 

expand their capacity, potentially leading to increases 

in containerized freight movement. If not adequately 

accommodated and planned for, this increase in 

throughput could lead to delayed shipments, 

congestion at intermodal transfer points, increased 

transportation costs, intensifying pollution, and other 

negative consequences.

Over the past 30 years, U.S.-international trade has 

increased at a much faster rate than our nation’s

overall economic growth, as measured in annual GDP 

growth. In the next 30 years, increasing imports and 

exports will lead to greater congestion at America’s 

coastal ports. 

Marine Governance

Most port facilities are owned by state 

and local government or the private 

sector. The Maritime Administration 

(MARAD) is responsible for improving 

port facilities; expanding the use of 

the nation’s waterways; promoting 

the development of the United States 

merchant marine; and ensuring that 

the United States maintains adequate 

shipbuilding and repair services, 

effective inter-modal connections to 

marine transportation systems. 

Several other agencies also have 

considerable responsibility for 

elements of the marine transportation 

system. The U.S. Army Corps of 

Engineers is responsible for deepening 

and maintaining navigation channels. 

The U.S. Coast Guard is responsible 

for maritime security, law 

enforcement, and the maintenance of 

aids to navigation. Customs and 

Border Protection is responsible for 

clearing goods into and out of the 

United States.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Marine 258

Because international trade and GDP are thoroughly linked, modern and efficient ports are 

essential to our international trade and to the health of our overall economy. 

Modernizing Ports and Waterways

To support the continued competitiveness of American goods in a global economy it is essential 

that we maintain and modernize our ports and repair our aging inland waterway infrastructure. 

Significant inland waterways include the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway, the Ohio River 

Basin, the Mississippi River System, the Columbia River, and the Gulf Coast Coastal Waterways. 

Our nation’s largest inland ports, like Duluth, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Huntington, handle tens 

of millions of tons of grain, steel, cars and coal.

American port authorities are already investing billions of dollars to modernize their facilities and 

accommodate increasingly larger ships. Raising bridges, dredging harbors, widening channels, and 

purchasing bigger ship-to-shore cranes are key steps to preparing for expected increases in demand 

and ensuring safe and efficient intermodal freight movement into the future. Ports do not stand 

alone. Port authorities and their partners are also participating in many efficiency-improving road 

and rail projects to eliminate freight bottlenecks and facilitate the movement of freight from ports 

to distribution centers. Although our ports are becoming increasingly busy, opportunities for 

innovation may be able to improve our port infrastructure even as the international economy 

places greater strains on the marine component of our transportation system.

Port infrastructure itself has not historically received federal funding assistance. However, with 

ports struggling to keep pace with increasing demand, TIGER Discretionary Grants have provided 

nearly $500 million for port projects. In light of the increasing need for ports infrastructure to 

keep pace with demand, MARAD’s Strong Ports Program is also helping ports modernize their 

infrastructure by providing planning expertise and assistance to U.S. port authorities. However, 

this program does not yet include a dedicated funding vehicle.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Marine 259

The Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund (HMTF) 

funds the federal government’s surveying and 

dredging projects, as well as the maintenance of 

breakwaters, the operation of locks and the Saint 

Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation. Over 

the past decade, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

has spent an average of $1.5 to $2 billion on 

navigation projects each year. These federal 

navigation projects are funded by a combination 

of user-fee supported trust funds and 

appropriations from the General Fund. Costs for 

deep-draft improvements are typically shared with 

local port authorities. Public port authorities 

spend more than $1 billion annually on dredging 

and infrastructure improvement.

The HMTF draws its funding from an ad valorem

tax (duty on imported items) on inbound 

shipments. In response to the increasing value of 

imports, HMTF revenues have grown to a current 

total nearly $2 billion annually. Over the past 

decade, these receipts have outpaced spending 

from the HMTF, leaving the HMTF with a surplus 

balance of $8.5 billion. Spending can only be 

authorized by Congress and, in recent years, 

The St. Lawrence Seaway

The St. Lawrence Seaway is a binational 

waterway directly serving an eight-state, 

two-province region. The Seaway moves, 

on average, 40 million metric tons of cargo 

annually between North American and 

international markets of virtually every 

type of bulk, breakbulk, and general cargo, 

including iron ore for the U.S. steel 

industry, limestone for construction and 

steel industries, coal for power generation 

and steel production, grain exports from 

U.S. farms, and finished steel and heavy 

lift products for industry. Maritime 

commerce on the Seaway System impacts 

227,000 U.S. and Canadian jobs, $35

billion in transportation-related business 

revenue, $14 billion in personal income, 

and $5 billion in federal, state, provincial, 

and Great Lakes taxes each year.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Marine 260

Congress has preferred to preserve the surplus in order to count it toward deficit reduction figure, 

although the latest spending authorization bill includes scheduled increases in spending over the 

next decade.

The Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF) funds capital projects to improve inland waterways. 

This fund generates approximately $80 million each year from a fuel tax on vessels using inland 

waterways. The balance of the IWTF declined from $400 million in 2001 to slightly more than 

$100 million today, largely due to the cost of building the Olmsted Locks and Dam project on the 

Ohio River in Illinois. This fund will get a boost in revenues of approximately $26 million with the 

enactment of the Achieving a Better Life Experience Act (ABLE Act) of 2014 which will raise barge 

fuel taxes.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) reports a backlog of over 500 active inland navigation 

projects, with an estimated completion cost of about $38 billion. Movement of fright on our inland 

rivers and waterways is hampered by an aging, antiquated system of locks and dams which have 

exceeded their design service live and are too frequently out of service. Approximately half of the 

navigation locks on inland waterways are over 50 years of age and require frequent repair. 

Targeted, performance-based investments are needed to repair and reconstruct this aging inland 

waterway infrastructure.

Automating Ports and Ships

Automation technologies are having major impacts at foreign ports and may spread to American 

ports. With the advent of standardized containerization, cargo transfer functions have become 

increasingly automated. At major container ports around the world, the process of transferring 

containers from ships to docks, trucks or rail is becoming highly automated, reducing reliance on 

human operators. If this trend continues, the human role in cargo handling could be greatly 

altered and reduced, thereby reducing the cost of shipping, providing the needed capacity to 

handle increased vessel sizes, and changing the nature of work in the marine transportation sector. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Marine 261

At sea, automation is also increasing efficiency allowing vessels to operate with fewer crew 

members than ever before. This trend has the potential to reduce the costs of freight, but may also 

create new risks as larger ships are crewed by fewer mariners. Managing and maintaining these 

new vessels will, in some cases, require advanced mechanical and data analysis jobs that demand 

higher skills and offer higher pay than traditional freight work, but may also displace the 

traditional mariner workforce. 

Port Infrastructure: The Port of Seattle Prepares for the Future

Our nation’s economy depends on the efficiency of port facilities to keep goods moving in and 

out of the country. However, growth in international trade and the expanding capacity of 

containerships will lead to greater congestion at America’s seaports and intermodal facilities. 

American port authorities are taking steps to prepare for expected increases in demand. For 

example, the Port of Seattle, which recently formed a Seaport Alliance with the Port of Tacoma,

just received a $20 million TIGER grant from the U.S. DOT to make strategic investments that 

will help Seattle maintain its competitiveness with American and Canadian ports.

Seattle/Tacoma is a key stop on the trade corridor between East Asia and the United States. 

Although the port handles roughly 5,000 containers per day, its facilities are in need of repair. In 

light of this fact, the port plans to use the TIGER grant funding to strengthen an aging dock and 

extend a dock crane rail. These improvements will increase the port’s capacity and allow it to 

accommodate two post-Panamax vessels at the same time. The port will also use the TIGER grant 

to construct a new truck ramp with more direct access to the port’s intermodal yard. Together, 

these investments will improve safety conditions, speed up the intermodal transfer of goods, and 

relieve highway congestion in and around the port. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Marine 262

Policy Implications

Our ports, rivers, waterways and coastal routes remain a critical piece of our intricate 

transportation network, and continued investment is essential to keep up with increased 

globalization and technology advancements. These are some of the policy options available to 

bolster our maritime industry:

 Develop a nationwide strategy to improve capacity at U.S. ports, where appropriate, with 

emphasis on those ports that are or will be able to accommodate larger container ships;

 Investing in America’s port and related infrastructure, where this would be highly effective 

in reducing the congestion and environmental impacts of trucks on our nation’s roadways; 

 Consolidating the roles and responsibilities of the many agencies with jurisdiction over port 

facilities, which will streamline goods movement and increase safety and security; 

 Addressing performance of our port and related infrastructure as an integral component of 

our nation’s freight transportation system and;

 Encourage automation in ports and on ships that increase efficiency and create jobs for 

highly skilled workers.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Marine 263

References

• Nagle, Kurt. DOT Fast Lane Blog. “America’s Ports Need a National Freight Funding Strategy to Delivery Prosperity.” 

(http://www.dot.gov/fastlane/ports-need-national-freight-funding-strategy)

• (BTS) Bureau of Transportation Statistics. 2011. America’s Container Ports: Linking Markets at Home and Abroad. January.

(http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/americas_container_ports/2011/pdf/entire.pdf)

• (MARAD) Maritime Administration. StrongPorts FAQs Page.

(http://www.marad.dot.gov/documents/StrongPorts_FAQs.pdf)

• Han, Stephanie, and Natalie Soroka. International Trade Administration. 2014. U.S. Trade Overview, 2013. October.

(http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/build/groups/public/@tg_ian/documents/webcontent/tg_ian_002065.pdf)

• (MARAD) Maritime Administration. 2009. America’s Ports and Intermodal Transportation System. January.

(http://www.glmri.org/downloads/Ports&IntermodalTransport.pdf) 

• Hillestad, Richard, Ben D. Van Roo, and Keenan D. Yoho. RAND Corporation. 2009. Fast Forward: Key Issues in Modernizing the U.S. Freight-Transportation System 

for Future Economic Growth.

(http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG883.pdf)

• American Society of Civil Engineers. 2012. 2012 Annual Report.

(http://www.asce.org/uploadedFiles/About_ASCE/Content_Pieces/asce-annual-report-2012.pdf)

• American Society of Civil Engineers. 2013. 2013 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure. March.

(http://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/a/#p/home)

• Frittelli, John. Congressional Research Service. 2013. Harbor Maintenance Finance and Funding. September. 

(http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R43222.pdf)

• Masters, Jonathan. Council on Foreign Relations. “The Thawing Arctic: Risks and Opportunities.” December 16, 2013. 

(http://www.cfr.org/arctic/thawing-arctic-risks-opportunities/p32082)

• (EPA) Environmental Protection Agency. 2014. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2012. April.

(http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2014-Main-Text.pdf)

• International Maritime Organization. Air pollution and energy efficiency; “Energy efficiency and the reduction of GHG emissions from ships.”

(http://www.imo.org/MediaCentre/HotTopics/GHG/Pages/default.aspx)

• The Journal of Commerce. “U.S. ports weigh value of terminal automation investment.” October 2, 2014.

(http://www.joc.com/port-news/port-productivity/us-ports-weigh-value-terminal-automation-investment_20141002.html) 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pipelines 264

Pipelines

More than 2.6 million miles of pipelines transport natural gas, oil, and other hazardous liquids 

across the United States every day. Each year pipelines carry oil, gas and other products valued at 

more than a trillion dollars from production fields to refineries, processing plants, and ports and, 

eventually to consumers. Our natural gas distribution mains and service pipelines bring natural 

gas to more than 70 million homes and businesses. In 2012, this system moved approximately 1.5 

billion tons of products, about 8 percent of all freight shipments by volume.

 Rising domestic production of oil and natural gas will strain existing pipeline capacity.

 Highest risk pipeline infrastructure will raise safety and environmental risks if not repaired, 

rehabilitated or replaced.

Rising Domestic Energy Production

America is experiencing an energy boom. American oil production has increased by nearly 60 

percent over just the past three years. In fact, the United States now produces more crude oil than 

any other country in the world. At the same time, America is consuming natural gas at historic 

highs, primarily for electric power and industrial uses. Some 23 trillion cubic feet of natural gas 

were used by residential, commercial, power, and industrial consumers in 2012.

These trends are likely to continue, although sharply dropping oil prices may curtail growth in 

domestic fossil fuel production in the near-term. Over the long-term, the Energy Information

Administration (EIA) expects natural gas production to continue to grow and that energy 

production will expand rapidly in regions of the country with shale energy resources. This growth 

will likely outpace domestic energy consumption, even as the demand for natural gas increases. As 

a result of growing production and increasing global demand, the United States could become a net 

exporter of natural gas. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pipelines 265
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pipelines 266

America’s fossil fuel boom will continue to increase 

demand for the processing facilities, storage fields, and 

transmission lines necessary to move oil and gas safely 

and efficiently. Approximately 76 percent of domestic 

crude oil—more than 3 billion barrels per year—and 

many gas products are shipped by pipeline. 

America’s current pipeline network, which was 

primarily designed to transport crude oil to refineries in 

the Gulf Coast, has limited connections from the East 

and West Coasts to the shale formations that are 

accelerating America’s energy production. This has 

resulted in limited pipeline capacity in many regions, 

which has placed extra demand on other modes, such as 

rail and maritime. However, pipeline construction may 

replace the use of other modes to move oil, gas, and 

hazardous liquids.

As production of domestic natural gas and crude oil has surged in recent years, the oil and gas 

industry has had to invest in infrastructure to reorient our nation’s existing network of pipelines. 

In 2013, private companies invested $6.6 billion in crude oil pipelines and $3 billion in natural gas 

liquid pipelines. These companies will continue to create new infrastructure to expand capacity 

and accommodate rapidly shifting production patterns, increasing demand for government 

oversight of pipeline construction. Although pipeline construction may increase, much of the new 

demand for energy movement will be absorbed by our existing pipeline infrastructure. 

Who Operates Pipelines?

America’s pipelines are operated by 

approximately 3,000 companies that 

vary in size and type, including both 

small local gas utilities and large 

multi-national corporations. Four 

industry segments are directly 

involved in transporting materials 

by pipelines: hazardous liquid 

pipeline operators, gas transmission 

pipeline operators, LNG facilities 

which store gas, and gas distribution 

utilities, who distribute natural gas 

to residential customers and smaller 

commercial users. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pipelines 267

Improving Safety of Pipelines

Pipeline incidents resulting in death, major injury, and hazardous liquid spills have gradually 

declined over the past 20 years, even as shipments of hazardous materials by pipeline has 

increased. Much of this improvement is attributable to advances in pipeline materials, corrosion 

protection methods, and construction technologies and standards over time. However, many of 

our nation’s existing pipelines were designed using materials that would not meet safety standards 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pipelines 268

if they were built today. Older cast and wrought iron pipelines, for example, represent 2.5 percent 

of gas distribution mains and account for 10.5 percent of gas main incidents. Pipelines that were 

constructed before requirements to install a protective coating on outside of the pipe are also of 

concern. This aging infrastructure raises the risk of safety incidents.

In recent years the pipeline industry, the U.S. DOT and state governments have focused on the 

repair, rehabilitation, and replacement of the highest-risk pipeline infrastructure. As a result, the 

amount of cast and wrought iron pipeline in use has declined significantly. Currently, 38 states 

have accelerated pipe replacement programs. Sixteen states have completely eliminated cast or 

wrought iron natural gas distribution lines within their borders, including Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, South 

Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

While overall incidents have declined, major pipeline accidents over the last five years have done 

extensive damage to the environment, increasing public concern. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill 

in 2010, while not a pipeline incident, still raised public awareness of the potential environmental 

consequences and operational risks of petroleum production and transport. Minor leaks in gas 

transmission lines are a source of methane emissions. Methane is about 40 times as powerful a 

greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide. The EPA has estimated that 1-2 percent of all natural gas moved 

through pipelines is lost through leaks, accidents, maintenance or operations. Finally, while major 

incidents have not occurred in the United States, pipelines may be vulnerable to vandalism, theft 

and conventional and cyber-terrorism, and must be protected. The pipelines industry is taking 

The EPA has estimated that 1-2 percent of all natural gas moved 

through pipelines is lost through leaks, accidents, maintenance or 

operations.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pipelines 269

steps to ensure that these complex control systems are secure and resilient to cyber attack or 

natural disasters.

Emerging technologies also promise to improve the safe and efficient operation of America’s 

pipelines. Fully autonomous pipeline inspection “pigs,” for example, have recently become widely 

available. These devices travel inside of pipelines and detect corrosion, cracks, and other problems. 

New “smart pig” technology promises to improve the accuracy of these devices and alternative 

methods of detecting trouble spots are on the horizon, as are data analytics innovations that can 

conduct continuous and automatic analysis of pipelines.

These cost-effective monitoring systems will reduce pipeline leaks and help pipeline companies cut 

costs. Additionally, automated technologies for valve operation, communications, and actuators 

may help the pipeline industry improve safety by shortening pipeline isolations and response time. 

Policy Implications

As the production of oil and gas and other commodities extracted far from ports and inland 

waterways increases, there will be increased need to upgrade and expand our pipeline network. 

Among the policy options to sustain, maintain, and develop new pipeline infrastructure include:

 Working with public and private partners at all levels, and building on efforts to date, to 

coordinate comprehensive inventories of the national pipeline infrastructure.

 Utilizing performance metrics to identify emerging safety trends and structure oversight to 

drive pipeline companies toward pipeline integrity assurance.

 Removing impediments and provide incentives for repair, replacement, rehabilitation of the 

nation’s higher risk pipelines, including promotion of creative rate recovery mechanisms.

 Addressing new challenges resulting from the changing demands of the energy boom.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pipelines 270

References

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration and (FTA) Federal Transit Administration. 2013. 2013 Status of the Nation’s Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions & 

Performance.

(http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/2013cpr/pdfs/cp2013.pdf)

• (EIA) Energy Information Administration. International Energy Statistics; “Total Oil Supply (Thousand Barrels Per Day).” 

(http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=53&aid=1)

• (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Natural Gas; “Natural Gas Consumption by End Use.” November 28, 2014. 

(http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_nus_a.htm)

• (EIA) Energy Information Administration. 2014. Annual Energy Outlook 2014. April.

(http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2014).pdf)

• (EIA) Energy Information Administration. 2013. Natural Gas Annual 2013.

(http://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/annual/pdf/nga13.pdf)

• (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Petroleum & Other Liquids; “Refinery Receipts of Crude Oil by Method of Transportation.” June 25, 2014.

(http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_PNP_CAPREC_DCU_NUS_A.htm)

• Curtis, Trisha, et. al. Oil & Gas Journal. “Lagging pipelines create U.S. gulf light sweet crude glut.” March 3, 2014. 

(http://eprinc.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/OGJ-EPRINC-Article.pdf) 

• Roberts, Randy L. “What Do We Really Know About Pipeline Pigging and Cleaning?” Pipeline and Gas Journal 236 (August 2009).

(http://www.pipelineandgasjournal.com/what-do-we-really-know-about-pipeline-pigging-and-cleaning)

• (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Pipeline Safety Awareness; “Pipeline Incidents and Mileage Reports.” September 2012.

(https://opsweb.phmsa.dot.gov/pipelineforum/facts-and-stats/incidents-and-mileage-report)

• American Petroleum Institute. 2013. Oil and Natural Gas Transportation and Storage Infrastructure: Status, Trends, & Economic Benefits. December.

(http://www.api.org/~/media/Files/Policy/SOAE-2014/API-Infrastructure-Investment-Study.pdf)

• (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Pipeline Replacement Updates; “Cast and Wrought Iron Inventory.” 

(http://opsweb.phmsa.dot.gov/pipeline_replacement/cast_iron_inventory.asp)

• (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Pipeline Safety Community. “About Us.”

(http://www.phmsa.dot.gov/pipeline/about)

• (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. 2013. Budget Estimates: Fiscal Year 2014. April. 

(www.dot.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/PHMSA_FY2014_Budget_Estimates.pdf)

• (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. State Programs & Grants; “Pipeline Safety Grants.”

(http://phmsa.dot.gov/portal/site/PHMSA/menuitem.6f23687cf7b00b0f22e4c6962d9c8789/?vgnextoid=c83a7b3646adc310VgnVCM1000001ecb7898RCRD&v

gnextchannel=840b764e4da7e010VgnVCM1000008055a8c0RCRD&vgnextfmt=print)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  System Implications  Pipelines 271

• (FHWA) Federal Highway Administration. 2014. Freight Facts and Figures 2013. January.

(http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight/freight_analysis/nat_freight_stats/docs/13factsfigures/pdfs/fff2013_highres.pdf) 

• (DOT) Department of Transportation. The State of the National Pipeline Infrastructure.

(https://opsweb.phmsa.dot.gov/pipelineforum/docs/Secretarys%20Infrastructure%20Report_Revised%20per%20PHC_103111.pdf)

• (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Pipeline Serious Incident 20 Year Trend; “Serious Pipeline Incidents by Cause.”

(http://primis.phmsa.dot.gov/comm/reports/safety/SerPSIDet_1994_2013_US.html?nocache=3781#_all)

• (PHMSA) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration. Pipeline Safety Awareness; “Obama Administration Pipeline Safety Goals and 

Accomplishments.”

(https://opsweb.phmsa.dot.gov/pipelineforum/obama-administration-accomplishments/)

• (NTSB) National Transportation Safety Board. Accident Investigation; “Pacific Gas and Electric Company Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline Rupture and Fire.”

(https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/summary/PAR1101.html)

• (NTSB) National Transportation Safety Board. Pipeline Accident Reports. “Preliminary Report Pipeline DCA14MP002.” March 2014. 

(https://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/reports/2014/Manhattan_NY_Pipeline_Preliminary_Report.pdf)

• Parformak, Paul. Congressional Research Service. 2013. Keeping America’s Pipelines Safe and Secure: Key Issues for Congress. January. 

(http://fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R41536.pdf)

• (EIA) Energy Information Administration. Petroleum & Other Liquids; “Refinery Receipts of Crude Oil by Method of Transportation.”

(http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_caprec_dcu_nus_a.htm)
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times 272

Shaping Our Future:

Choices in Changing Times

What do all the changes we’re seeing mean for our transportation 

policies? What should we do about them?

Understanding the changes we’re experiencing makes it possible for us to sketch out our 

transportation future—and to outline the hard decisions we will need to make.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  Scenario 2045 273

Scenario 2045: Drifting Toward Gridlock

Purpose

This is a scenario, not a forecast. We have used our trend analysis as a guide to construct 

constructed a possible snapshot of a future: one in which we have failed to make the choices we 

need to make to address the challenges our transportation system faces. It is possible that 

different policies, technological breakthroughs, economic crises, or other developments could yield 

different outcomes. We certainly hope so. Nevertheless, this future scenario provides a starting 

point for discussing tough choices.

Summary

In the Drifting Toward Gridlock scenario, transportation policies at all levels of government 

continue essentially unchanged. Circumstances are driven largely by the trends discussed earlier in 

this report, rather than by policies that aim to anticipate, or even simply respond to, such changes. 

In this future, just going about one’s daily travel routine is increasingly challenging. Highway 

congestion increases and major metropolitan areas and air travel delays become more frequent. 

Transit services become increasingly expensive and intercity rail services are reduced. Shipping of 

goods becomes increasingly unreliable and American exports become less competitive as the costs 

of shipping go up. The effects of climate change raise the costs of maintaining infrastructure and 

increase the frequency of travel disruption. Our regulatory system can’t keep up with technological 

change and potentially transformative transportation and safety technologies are held back. 

Governments fail to make the investments necessary to preserve our infrastructure and patchwork 

state policies increase the costs of interstate commerce. In the absence of any new thinking, and a 

willingness to make hard decisions, the performance and condition of the entire transportation 

system decreases overall, acting as a drag on the economy, constraining its growth. If this sounds 

familiar, it’s because many of these trends are already affecting our transportation system. And, 

they may only get worse if we fail to act. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  Scenario 2045 274

Atlanta Regional Commission, Plan 2040

In the years 2010 through 2040, the 20-county 

Atlanta region is projected to add 2.6 million 

residents for a total population of nearly 7.9 

million. This forecasted growth rate represents an 

average annual growth of 87,825 people. This 

forecasted growth rate is significant enough to 

place a heavy burden on regional infrastructure, 

which is already strained by the robust growth 

experienced over the past 60 years. The projected 

net effect of not taking action to the year 2040 will 

result in daily average congestion speed nearly 10 

miles per hour slower (27.5mph to 18.8mph) and a 

distinct rise in annual congestion costs—that is, 

wasted time and fuel used in traffic—per capita 

($874 to $2,945).

Drifting Toward Gridlock: How We Move

Petroleum prices remain relatively stable in 

large part due to strong domestic 

production, so the vehicle fleet is still largely

powered by gasoline and diesel. Fluctuations 

in oil prices continue to cause occasional 

price shocks. However, without significant 

market or policy incentives in place to 

encourage major technological 

breakthroughs in alternative fuels or battery 

capacity, there are none, with the exception 

of some niche applications. The low price of 

fuel encourages Americans to increase their 

driving. 

Congestion increases significantly in major 

metropolitan areas. Although congestion is 

viewed as a major inconvenience, especially 

when combined with the deterioration of roads and bridges, suburbs continue to grow. Housing 

prices in the city centers of high-growth metropolitan areas increase precipitously, becoming 

unaffordable to most Americans; suburban growth is fueled by land and housing that is less 

expensive. To adapt to congestion, many companies have generous telework policies and flexible 

schedules. However, there is a growing divide between Americans who are able to take advantage 

of these flexibilities, and those who are not.

Transit use remains strong in large cities with heavy-rail systems; transit system construction 

stalls in Sunbelt cities, with the construction of few new light rail lines. Ridership increases 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  Scenario 2045 275

nationally, but transit still accounts for less than one in 10 commutes. Transit services become 

increasingly expensive to provide: the population grows older and more suburban, infrastructure 

and fleet-replacement costs mount, and transit agencies face legacy retirement and health-care 

costs for their employees. Fares increase, disrepair becomes more widespread, and the quality of 

service, particularly in poorer neighborhoods, declines.

Intercity passenger rail increasingly provides efficient services in many markets, including the 

heavily-used Northeast Corridor, throughout California and in the Chicago region. Some services, 

including long distance routes, continue to rely on a public operating subsidy to provide critical 

national connections between regional networks. While revenues may not be gained annually in 

these markets, these routes provide mobility options for communities—including across rural 

landscapes. 

Passenger air travel increases and remains affordable, but air traffic delays become more frequent.

Airports with high volumes of international travelers find ways to generate revenues through user 

fees or retail receipts. Regional airports, on the other hand, face reduced services, and many rural 

airports depend on federal subsidies. Airport infrastructure and air traffic control, particularly at 

the largest, busiest airports, are not able to keep up with the growth in passenger demand. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  Scenario 2045 276

PLANYC, A Stronger, More Resilient New York

According to the City of New York’s PLANYC, the 

New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 

predicts that, by the 2050s, the city may see as 

much as 30 inches of sea level rise and twice the 

number of residents (up to 800,000) living in the 

100-year-floodplain. To make the transportation 

system more resilient, the city is seeking to protect 

critical elements of the system from damage, 

maintain system operations during extreme events, 

and put in place backup transportation options in 

case of system interruption. The city has already 

raised traffic control signals above flood elevation 

in vulnerable areas, nearly completed road 

reconstruction and drainage infrastructure along 

roads in some vulnerable and impacted areas, and 

has begun to plan with a variety of city agencies to 

identify critical transportation network elements 

and improve transportation responses to major 

events through regular resiliency planning 

exercises.

Drifting Toward Gridlock: How We Move Things

Freight traffic increases as the population grows. Trucking carries an increasing portion of freight, 

but increasing congestion, combined with unreliable infrastructure, reduces service reliability. 

More hazardous materials are transported by truck increasing safety risks.

Traffic at a few large container ports 

increases rapidly, as does intermodal 

traffic. Other ports struggle to compete 

despite significant subsidies from states

and metropolitan areas that are trying to 

generate local economic activity. 

Intermodal traffic increases rail revenues, 

but capacity constraints limit the amount 

of freight that can be shifted to rail.

Domestic maritime freight declines as 

locks and dams critical to internal 

waterways fall into disrepair or fail. 

Increasing shipping costs reduce the 

competitiveness of American businesses 

abroad. Air freight triples and the 

economy at air freight hubs thrives. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  Scenario 2045 277

Knoxville, Tennessee 

Adopted in 2013, the Knoxville Regional 

Planning Organization Long Range 

Mobility Plan 2040 identified the need to 

leverage and invest in technologies in 

transportation. It identified strategies to 

coordinate local investments in intelligent 

transportation systems by transit 

providers to improve service and 

efficiency.

Drifting Toward Gridlock: How We Adapt

The negative impacts of climate change are felt broadly. The increasing frequency and intensity of 

severe weather events cause major disruptions to travel and the closure of critical transportation 

facilities to become more commonplace. Critical airports and ports are shut down by major storm 

surge events with increasing frequency. The costs of disaster recovery increase significantly. 

Passenger and freight traffic gradually shifts to less vulnerable areas. Great sums are expended on 

improving the resiliency of such facilities—but only on a case-by-case basis, and usually after major 

damage has already been sustained. Such spending rarely improves the economic competitiveness 

of areas now perceived as unreliable, and is derided. National climate-change regulations have not 

been introduced.

Drifting Toward Gridlock: How We Move Better

Vehicle automation has progressed incrementally, 

but because a comprehensive regulatory framework 

was never established for them, fully automated 

vehicles are not permitted on public roadways. Only 

a patchwork of local, regional, and commercial 

standards and applications exists, yielding a number 

of technological and operational incompatibilities. A 

few high-profile safety incidents result in further 

limitations on automation features. Meanwhile, 

automated vehicles are commonplace in other 

developed countries. Fortunately, driving continues 

to become safer, although only because improved vehicle safety technologies contribute to declines 

in fatalities and serious injuries resulting from crashes. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  Scenario 2045 278

Unmanned aircraft systems are widespread, but regulations generally restrict them to publicsector functions, such as law enforcement, and recreational use. In the absence of a comprehensive 

policy and regulatory approach to UAS, commercial applications remain severely limited.

America is no longer a leader in the transportation technology industry. American jobs in the 

transportation sector decline as most innovation in the sector is driven by countries with 

conducive regulatory environments and ample research budgets.

Drifting Toward Gridlock: How We Align Decisions and Dollars

The federal fuel tax has not been increased, and no alternative funding source has been identified

for the Highway Trust Fund. As a result, revenues do not keep pace with needs—in fact, they have 

continued to decline, as the average fuel economy of cars and trucks has increased. The Highway 

Trust Fund is maintained through transfers from the General Fund and short-term budget fixes 

(as political conditions permit), but its purchasing power continues to decrease. Multi-year surface 

transportation authorizations are no longer the norm; transportation spending is instead 

authorized mainly through short-term bills and extensions. Political deadlocks sometimes result in 

withholding of federal funding creating economic uncertainty.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  Scenario 2045 279

This short-term focus leads to delays in roadway and transit projects, especially large projects. It is 

increasingly difficult to plan for major capital projects requiring the certainty of more than one 

year of funding. Some needed projects are canceled, and others never make it off the drawing 

board. The construction workforce in particular is affected, with short-term contract employment 

becoming more and more common. This creates a “skills gap” in the construction industry, and 

much institutional knowledge is lost, and never regained, as employment in construction becomes 

less attractive. Lack of experience and expertise hinders the industry’s take-up of new construction 

technologies that might otherwise have yielded improved performance at lower cost.

Birmingham’s Comprehensive Plan: Getting from Here to There - Transportation and 

Mobility

The City of Birmingham’s 2013 Comprehensive Plan documents the city’s struggle to match federal 

funding for projects. As a result, the city’s record of project delivery does not meet their 

development aspirations. These aspirations seek to adapt their 1960s system design to transit, 

bicycle and pedestrian travel modes. In addition, the result of supporting this growing road network 

over time has led to a decline in the ability to maintain streets, since costs for maintenance have 

outstripped available maintenance funding. Exacerbating this dilemma is Birmingham limited 

ability to match at restricted levels, which does not put the city in a sufficiently competitive position 

for limited federal funds. Therefore, their 2013 Plan sets a goal—to leverage Birmingham’s 

transportation systems to help build the city’s 21st-century economy and a livable urban center of 

the region—and a local policy for decisionmakers to build upon and deliver: Support strategic 

initiatives drawing in greater private financing and use public funds to maintain and enhance the 

city’s street and transit systems to support city livability.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  Scenario 2045 280

Changes in the aviation industry and increasing pressure on the federal budget create increasing 

funding instability and budget uncertainties for FAA, delaying the adoption of NextGen and 

delaying the integration of UAS and commercial space transportation into the national airspace. 

Transportation revenues are patchwork and increasingly decentralized. Some states have turned to 

tolling and public and private debt financing to fund major transportation projects. Other states 

have placed tolls on major facilities. Some states develop alternative sources of transportation 

revenues, including mileage-based fee taxes. Other states raise vehicle registration fees, increase 

sales taxes, and revert to using general funds rather than dedicated transportation revenues.

Overall, a patchwork system of financing and an unequal quality of service between states exerts a 

drag on interstate commerce. Drivers become accustomed to paying tolls and fees.

Some states manage to maintain their roads and bridges in good condition. Overall, however, 

many states with stagnant populations struggle to maintain critical transportation facilities as 

their tax base declines and maintenance costs increase. Due to aging and physical deterioration, 

select major facilities and infrastructure experience weight restrictions or emergency repairs with 

greater frequency; this leads to congestion on existing alternate routes. Drivers, especially truck 

drivers, are used to frequently being rerouted due to closed facilities and other emergency 

restrictions, such as weight limitations applied to bridges while critical repairs are conducted. 

Travel times generally increase, and become less reliable. Freight shipments are often delayed.

Drifting Toward Gridlock: Conclusion

In general, public cynicism about transportation increases. Vehicle manufacturers advertise their 

products’ strong suspensions and entertainment capabilities. The quality of the transportation 

workforce declines, as the industry is considered a backwater, while nations such as China 

showcase the latest technologies and operational enhancements. Political and business leaders 

speak of “managing the decline,” and openly predict not just gridlock in the transportation 

system—but complete economic gridlock as well.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  A Better Path 281

A Better Path

To avoid Drifting Toward Gridlock, we will need to make choices in a number of major areas. The 

list of choices we present is not exhaustive, but follows from this report’s analysis, and is meant to

illustrate the range of options that can be considered. Our task is to understand how to prepare 

our policies, and our institutions, to lead us to the best possible future.

To set our path, we will first elaborate a set of principles to guide us in making sound 

transportation policy decisions. Policies should:

1. Recognize the perilous forces that threaten our transportation system and address those 

forces honestly, transparently, and in a fact-based manner framed by data and analysis.

2. Develop new mechanisms to adapt to changing circumstances and advancing technologies 

with speed and flexibility.

3. Reevaluate and simplify the roles of various levels of government and engage the private 

sector to foster collaborative solutions and partnerships to achieve common goals.

4. Assure adequate resources to preserve, sustain and build transportation assets and support 

options for funding and/or financing new investments in 21st century assets. 

5. Advance balanced and sustainable economic growth without exacerbating income inequality 

or social division.

6. Support technological innovation, while ensuring the preeminence of safety, security, and 

privacy.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  A Better Path 282

Although we do not include an evaluation of policy options in this document, we suggest that the 

reader evaluate the options presented by considering if they are consistent with these simple 

principles and by remembering this—if we make no policy choices, we’ve seen what will happen. 

But, this all can be avoided if we are willing to think differently and creatively about the challenges 

we face, and make the difficult choices we must confront. 
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How We Move
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How will we make it possible for Americans to get around in 2045? Our basic policy for decades has 

been to expand capacity to meet demand by building new facilities. This in itself may not be 

enough in the face of a growing and changing population, increasing congestion, and other factors 

(such as deteriorating facility conditions).

Most Americans expect transportation choices—and the access to opportunity those choices 

bring—that are probably unmatched in history or anywhere else in the world today. Nonetheless, 

we face obstacles about how to maintain and improve those options as our circumstances change. 

How can we continue to make possible the mobility that we want and need? The policies we 

ultimately choose can also be used to achieve broader social goals. Our transportation system does 

not have to be a force that exacerbates social divisions and income inequality—it can be connective 

tissue, that provides opportunities for us all.

Key Policy Options:

 Increase infrastructure capacity: build new roads, bridges, and other facilities; maintain 

existing facilities more effectively; use existing facilities more effectively by 

implementing better designs and technologies; or use some combination of these 

methods

 Reduce congestion through land use, telework and flex-time work schedules, smaller and

automated vehicles, and pricing 

 Promote public transit, biking, and walking
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Increasing infrastructure capacity. The traditional response to addressing congestion has been to 

increase the supply of roads, rail, and other infrastructure. Particularly in fast-growing and highlycongested corridors, new capacity is needed just to meet existing demand, much less accommodate 

projected growth. Design and construction of new facilities can respond to the needs and 

preferences of current and future generations. For instance, younger people living in cities may 

prefer to ride public transit in greater numbers than their parents did. On the other hand, new 

capacity can be very costly to build, and even more costly to maintain over its lifetime. There may 

be physical limits to the construction of new facilities in areas that are already fully built up. Nonfinancial costs (time, environmental effects) may add up. And, in the long term, new facilities 

could encourage development patterns that may actually induce even more congestion.

But increasing capacity doesn’t just have to mean building new facilities. Our existing 

transportation system can in many cases be used more efficiently, increasing capacity without 

pouring concrete. Better designs, such as “Complete Streets,” could make it possible to handle 

travel growth, in several different modes of transportation, without breaking any new ground. And 

implementing advanced technologies, across every type of transportation, can also increase 

capacity—NextGen airplane-navigation aids, for instance, can enable planes to land every two 

minutes, rather than every four minutes. Incorporating modern designs and technologies can yield 

safety benefits, too, not just increased capacity.

Capacity can also be increased by providing up-to-date information to the traveling public, 

allowing people to make better decisions—choosing the least congested, most efficient route, or 

mode, available.
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We can also manage and maintain our system more effectively. Better data and decisionmaking 

about which facilities are most critical to the smooth operation of the whole network will make it 

possible to precisely target scarce construction and maintenance dollars. This kind of prioritization 

can increase capacity by keeping roads open and trains running: reducing the time that vital pieces 

of our transportation system are out of commission due to their condition. Improved construction 

and maintenance practices, including new materials, and even innovations in the contracting 

process (such as incentive payments for early project completion) also have the potential to reduce 

delays and closures.
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Portland, Oregon

Many local communities are forecasting future population growth and developing strategies to 

address it. For example, by adopting Resolution 36918, Portland’s City Council agreed to use 

the Portland Plan as a strategic plan to guide decisionmaking. To this end, the City Council set 

a host of improvement benchmarks to be met by the year 2035. To measure the progress of 

their 12 Portland Plan Measures of Success, Portland strives to ensure that:

 70 percent of Portlanders take active transportation, transit or carpool to work or work 

from home.

 80 percent of Portlanders live in walkable, complete neighborhoods.

 Carbon emission levels are 50 percent below 1990 levels.

To get there, the city is pursuing an aggressive Transportation System Plan that meets state 

and regional planning requirements and addresses local transportation needs. It includes:

 Policies that guide the maintenance, development and implementation of Portland’s 

transportation system.

 A list of projects and a financial plan that will accommodate 20 years of population and 

employment growth.

 Thorough examination of Master Street Plans and modal plans.

 Strategies and regulations for implementation, including street classification maps.
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Kansas City–Mid-Area Regional Council - Transportation Outlook 2040

In the future, an aging population, continued decline in the proportion of families with children, and 

changing settlement preferences could increase the demand for more walkable, transit-friendly 

development. While developing Transportation Outlook 2040, the Mid-Area Regional Council created 

two growth scenarios that showed alternate ways of accommodating the region’s expected overall

growth. The baseline scenario shows how the region would look if past development trends were 

extended into the future. An adaptive scenario shows how the region might look if local governments 

continue a trend toward adopting sustainable growth patterns so that sustainable growth is carried 

out at a regional scale.

Baseline Scenario 2040 Adaptive Scenario 2040

Both scenarios show the same amount of new population added to the region. An adopted Kansas 

City area forecast settled somewhere between the two ends of the growth spectrum, with a 

redevelopment rate between 10 and 20 percent, on average, over the next 30 years.
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Reducing congestion. Matching supply and demand works both ways: in addition to increasing 

transportation capacity to meet the demand for travel, another policy option is to consider how 

travel demand could be leveled, or even reduced, to meet the existing capacity of the system. This 

may mean considering how to address demand throughout a single day or within a region, to 

reduce the occurrence of congestion during peak periods, or in areas that suffer chronic high 

congestion.

One mechanism of accomplishing this is to use tolls that vary in cost throughout the day, 

depending on the extent of congestion. This creates an incentive for those with schedule flexibility 

to travel at off-peak periods. The same concept can be applied to all transportation modes to 

spread out demand and reduce congestion.

Congestion can also be managed through land use policies that help to reduce commuting distance. 

Mixed-use developments, where homes are near jobs, mean that commutes are shorter, and often 

make it possible for people to walk or bike to work. In general, development patterns that promote 

denser land use rather than sprawl help to reduce total commuter travel demand. 

Employers can be an important partner in managing congestion through travel demand, if they are 

able to facilitate flex-time schedules and teleworking. This reduces the need for commuters to be 

traveling during peak times. Employers may also provide benefits and amenities that encourage 

employees to use public transit, or to bike or walk to work.

Congestion can also be reduced by reducing the actual amount of roadway needed by drivers. This 

can take several forms. First, smaller vehicles require less space for parking. Second, an increase in 

ridesharing would increase the number of passengers per car, reducing the number of cars on the 

road. Third, just as with airplanes, better technologies, leading to full automation, could make it 

possible for vehicles to follow one another more closely, without compromising safety.
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Some efforts to enhance mobility by reducing congestion may align with policies to achieve social 

goals, such as improving access to jobs and opportunities, and reducing income inequality. These 

can include new capacity investments that are planned in ways that connect disadvantaged 

communities to jobs. On the other hand, some such policies may not enhance quality of life or 

opportunities, and some congestion mitigation policies may even be at odds with such goals. For 

instance, a pricing policy—increasing commuter costs during peak times—can reduce congestion, 

but for individuals, particularly those of low income, who may lack work-hour flexibility, such costs 

also create barriers to accessing centers of employment during working hours. Policymakers 

should consider how to mitigate these kinds of conflicts. As one example, the money collected 

from congestion fees could be rebated to all commuters.

Finally, freight congestion can affect passenger transportation, as trucks jostle with cars on 

freeways, and freight trains and Amtrak trains share our nation’s rails. New policies or 

investments may be needed to address these kinds of conflicts: facilities dedicated to commercial 

use, for instance—or more advanced techniques, drawing on new technologies, for different kinds 

of vehicles to safely and efficiently share the same infrastructure.

Promoting transit, biking, and walking. Encouraging Americans to take transit, and to bike and walk, 

not only enhances mobility but can provide other benefits as well—improved health, greater 

flexibility, and a reduction in travel costs, energy use, and emissions—all while reducing 

congestion on our roadways.
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How We Move Things
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How can we keep our freight engine running? Our multimodal freight system was once the envy of the 

world, but today it is increasingly inadequate to meet the needs of a growing and changing 

population and economy. Congestion on highways and at airports, chokepoints on our rail system, 

aging locks and dams on our inland rivers and waterways, delays at border crossings, and 

inefficient intermodal connections at our port facilities are resulting in lost productivity, increased 

pollution, and higher transportation costs. Ultimately, these costs fall on American workers and 

consumers.

Much more can be done to address the issues facing our nation’s freight system. Improved 

coordination between the public and private sectors could guide more efficient and innovative 

freight investments and operations. A national freight strategy that engages freight stakeholders 

across all modes and regions could identify actions to address major freight issues affecting 

national goals. Increased financing and funding, including public funding, for targeted freight 

projects could be used to alleviate freight bottlenecks. Greater attention to international gateways 

could speed freight flows across borders. Finally, streamlining regulations on freight movements 

could lower the costs of freight.

Key Policy Options:

 Improve freight planning and coordination at national, regional and local levels

 Target policies and investments aimed at resolving freight congestion 

 Encourage innovative strategies to address first and last-mile freight issues
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Improving freight planning. With the globalization of our economy and the growth of intermodal 

container shipping, the efficient functioning of our freight system increasingly depends on reliable 

and seamless freight movements across borders and modes to meet just-in-time expectations. 

Even so, there is little coordination among the myriad public agencies and private companies that 

own and operate our freight system to improve the efficiency of freight system operations and 

investments. As a result, public and private resources are often used inefficiently, and important 

safety, environmental and infrastructure issues go unaddressed. Our country lacks a coordinated 

national freight strategy that could help to focus attention and investments on issues that would 

allow for the achievement of national goals. Strategies to improve our freight system could include 

leadership in improving freight data and planning processes, streamlined regulations, and targeted 

investments to address freight bottlenecks. 
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Charlotte, North Carolina

Challenging terrain and deteriorating facilities present obstacles to moving freight. With $364 

billion in goods shipped from sites within North Carolina and $337 billion in goods shipped to 

sites in the state each year, the quality of the transportation system is increasingly important as 

a site selection criterion for companies looking to relocate or expand. Specifically, highway 

accessibility remains their number-one site selection factor. Eighty-six percent of goods shipped 

from sites within North Carolina are carried by truck, which illustrates that well-maintained 

roads without traffic bottlenecks are essential to a vibrant economy. 

The strength of the logistics and shipping industries in the state’s central region will be 

marginalized unless the needed maintenance and traffic flow improvements are made in this 

increasingly congested portion of the state. The call to invest in solutions includes enhancing 

access to inland ports—including improving highway connections and seeking economically 

competitive rail service to inland ports in and around Charlotte—and strengthening highway 

connectivity from mountains to coast in an effort to improve U.S. 74 to interstate standards 

from Asheville to Charlotte and from Charlotte to Wilmington to improve freight movements 

and in-state access to the Port of Wilmington. Without new investments to expand industrial 

rail access, freight movements throughout the region may become less efficient and less 

reliable. Growth in agribusiness will become flat, commercial warehouses will continue to move 

away, and businesses attracted to the quality of life unique to the region will ultimately decide 

to locate elsewhere. That would mean fewer jobs available for local residents.
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The federal government could create incentives, and provide guidance and technical assistance to 

state and local agencies, to integrate freight issues into policies and planning processes. Public 

agencies could also develop institutions and policies that allow for the coordination of freight 

investments across state lines, such as the I-95 Corridor Coalition. Federally-funded competitive 

grant programs could be established to incentivize innovative state, regional, and local solutions to 

freight issues.

States, metropolitan planning organizations, and local governments could work more closely with 

private partners in the freight industry to resolve first- and last-mile freight issues. Strategies 

could include developing strategically located distribution centers, intermodal centers, and “freight 

villages” to facilitate efficient movement of goods into and out of urban areas. For example, 

distribution centers on the edges of urban areas could be used to encourage the consolidation of 

deliveries into dense commercial and residential areas, making possible the use of smaller, quieter 

and more energy efficient trucks. Strategies to address truck parking along freight corridors and in 

urban areas can improve safety and help to relieve local congestion. Regions and states could also 

work with the freight industry to encourage off-hours delivery schedules that reduce truck-related 

congestion. Finally, intelligent transportation system (ITS) technologies that provide real-time 

parking or traffic information, enable automated toll collection, and help to speed the resolution of 

traffic incidents can be applied to facilitate freight movements.
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Addressing freight bottlenecks. Roadways and rail lines, particularly in metropolitan areas that are 

home to ports and intermodal transfer centers, are becoming increasingly congested. Policies to 

alleviate freight bottlenecks could include targeted capacity investments, or planning strategies 

and policies that influence the timing or location of freight movements to avoid congestion. 

Capital investments in the modernization of facilities or in new capacity can help improve 

reliability while also improving efficiency. For instance, older bridges or railways that restrict the 

total weight carried by trucks and trains could be modernized to allow for more efficient routing of 

freight, thereby improving travel times and reducing emissions harmful to the environment. 

Investments to reduce at-grade rail crossings could also improve the efficiency of freight 

movements and the safety of travel.

Projects to increase freight capacity and modernize freight facilities could be undertaken in 

conjunction with private partners that would benefit from such improvements. To spur private 

investment in freight infrastructure, federal financing programs, such as RRIF and TIFIA, could be 

expanded. Tax credits for freight infrastructure investments could also be used to reduce the 

private sector tax burden, and incentivize the creation of new capacity. 

There is currently no federal funding source dedicated to supporting surface transportation freight 

movements, but there are a number of potential revenue sources. A portion of federal fuel taxes 

could be dedicated to freight issues; however, fuel-tax revenues have failed to keep up with 

inflation and may not represent a sustainable source of revenues. Alternatively, federal freightrelated taxes based on freight waybills or freight ton-miles, or taxes on imported or exported 

goods, could be used to raise revenue to address freight bottleneck issues. Where federal funding 

mechanisms do exist to support the maintenance and infrastructure of inland waterway assets and 

the dredging of harbors, funding for capital projects could be more focused on the most 

economically beneficial improvements. Finally, pricing strategies such as dynamic tolling could 

also improve the reliability of high-value freight shipments along congested freight corridors.
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Streamlining regulations. Competition among shippers within and between modes can help ensure 

that shipping costs stay low and therefore do not act as drag on the economy. Regulations that 

inhibit competitiveness and drive up costs could be eliminated or streamlined. Regulatory agencies 

can work to standardize regulations across jurisdictions and to simplify, reduce or eliminate 

paperwork and paperwork submission processes. However, many regulatory reforms that could 

lower freight costs such as raising weight limits or allowing combination trucks on national 

highways, have tradeoffs in terms of safety, security, infrastructure condition and environmental 

impacts that would need to be considered.
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How We Move Better
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How can we make the best use of rapid technological advances? New technologies have the potential to 

radically improve our entire transportation enterprise. However, our regulatory, permitting, and 

oversight tools are all products of a previous era—and many of them have been very slow or 

difficult to adapt to technological innovations. Government also must balance its dual role: 

promoting technologies, but ensuring that they are safe for widespread adoption.

Whether we, as a society, are positioned to take advantage of these opportunities will depend on 

the choices we make. Will we speed or hinder the emergence and adoption of new technologies? 

Will we invest public funding in research? And how will we develop the future transportation 

workforce? For decades, when “transportation” primarily meant “road-building,” we needed civil 

engineers who were versed in construction and materials technologies. In a time of smartphones, 

autonomous aircraft, and “big data,” what kinds of professions and technical skills will we need for 

the system of tomorrow?

Key Policy Options:

 Address regulatory barriers to deployment of new technology or procedures; develop 

infrastructure and standards to support emerging technologies

 Collect and manage data and transition to a data-driven investment system, while 

protecting individual privacy 

 Support research on technological developments and deployment 

 Maintain a paramount focus on safety
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Addressing regulatory barriers. As new technologies emerge, we will need to build upon the 

principles of flexibility and innovation to help ensure that our policies lead, rather than follow, 

change, and enable us to maximize the positive benefits of technological improvements and the 

informative value of “big data.” Regulations will need to be balanced to ensure public safety and 

security while enabling commercial development of technologies with widespread social benefits. 

In every mode, our capacity to improve safety and efficiency has never been better—or more 

fraught with policy ramifications that can substantially affect our privacy, our footprint on the 

planet, and our ability to foster shared prosperity.

Boston, Massachusetts

In early January of 2015, Massachusetts filed a list of rules and regulations that formally 

recognize Uber, Lyft and other ridesharing operations as official modes of transportation in 

the state. Regulations will establish rules for how ridesharing companies are allowed to 

operate across the state, as well as rider and driver safety. Later in January, Uber pledged to 

give government officials a look inside its transportation data. By providing the city of 

Boston with anonymized information about rides on the car-hailing service, the city hopes to 

find ways to help ease traffic congestion and make smarter city planning decisions.
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With many new technologies, such as NextGen and connected vehicles, a critical mass of people 

must adopt it for there to be any benefit. This is often a chicken-and-egg problem: electric cars, for 

instance, are only viable with a network of charging stations—but charging stations are only viable 

once there is sufficient use of electric cars. Once a new technology is sufficiently adopted, 

substantial network benefits may accrue—so that even those who haven’t adopted the technology 

can be better off. For example, the availability of automobiles equipped with collision-avoidance 

warning systems helps us all, not just those who buy such vehicles. To make these outcomes 

possible, government agencies will need to find ways to overcome barriers to adopting new 

technologies with clear societal benefits, while enacting policies that set mandatory technology 

standards or incentivize adoption of such technologies. In some cases, where the barriers are 

largely economic, government support to those with limited resources may help to ensure that a 

critical mass of users adopt such technologies.

Public agencies need to be prepared to support and regulate rapidly emerging technologies. For 

example, in recent years public agencies at all levels and across all modes have had to develop 

policies, laws and regulations to deal with the safety effects of distracted driving caused by the use 

mobile technologies. At the federal level, the Federal Aviation Administration is currently faced 

with the challenge of developing regulatory policies to manage the use of unmanned aircraft 

systems, which have commercial potential but also present great safety, security and 

environmental concerns that will need to be fully addressed before that potential can be realized. 
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As cars increasingly become computers on wheels, the National Highway Traffic Safety 

Administration must develop a regulatory approach that allows performance failures in electronic 

control systems to be identified. Detecting a bug in software code requires a very different 

approach and skill set than determining whether there is a mechanical defect in a braking system. 

As connected and automated vehicles are deployed, public agencies will need to consider investing 

in infrastructure that supports their use, while addressing workforce capacity issues, and 

developing policies to manage data and mitigate privacy concerns.

Overall, our institutions themselves may need to evolve. Government agencies historically have 

not changed at the speed of technology. If they cannot adapt quickly enough to technological 

developments in the marketplace, we will need to reassess our institutions, so they do not become 

barriers to innovation, or deter would-be innovators from pursuing their work.

Collecting and managing data. For all the promise of new technologies, we will need to find ways to 

manage their use to preserve our safety, security and privacy. As collection of data from cell 

phones, payment systems and remote sensors becomes increasingly inexpensive and widespread, 

governments may need to set standards and regulations to ensure that our personal information is 

protected. This is an entirely new area, changing by the day. 
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Supporting research. As technology advances in other sectors, increased investments in 

transportation research will likely be needed to identify and deploy transportation applications 

and to effectively manage the effects of technological change on the transportation system. Such 

research goes beyond the direct study of technology to examining a much broader set of related 

issues: for instance, the legal and jurisdictional implications of new technologies. Increased 

research investment could be ensured by increasing public research spending or private sector 

research could be encouraged through partnerships, tax credits and subsidies. Increased research 

investments could boost efforts to commercialize leading edge technologies, increasing the 

competitiveness of U.S. firms.

Maintaining safety as the top priority. As we become more reliant on increasingly sophisticated 

technological systems, we will need to find ways to preserve the functioning of transportation 

systems when these systems are disrupted. This will require retaining redundant systems and 

maintaining piloting, driving and navigation skills, even as GPS-based navigation systems and 

automated functions become more prevalent. We will also need to develop systems that can 

identify, diagnose, and anticipate breakdowns in complex technological systems. Finally, we will 

need to develop standards that protect such systems from malicious attacks that could disrupt 

services, sowing chaos and confusion. 
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How We Adapt
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How do we ensure that our transportation system can weather the years to come? To be responsible 

stewards of our transportation system, we must work to reduce its impact on the environment; to 

keep America moving, we must adapt to the anticipated effects of climate change. We have 

achieved large successes in cleaning our air, land, and water relative to trends evident 30 to 40 

years ago, but these were highly focused efforts; today, our challenge is to consider more broadly 

how we can reduce, mitigate, or eliminate the negative effects of transportation projects and 

operations.

Our transportation system presents challenges — but it can also be part of a solution that allows 

our entire economy to adapt to a changing environment. We cannot always expect exactly when or 

how a Hurricane Katrina or Superstorm Sandy will strike, but we can work to minimize the 

disruptions caused by such events from the moment we begin thinking about any kind of 

transportation project. To accomplish this holistic goal, we need a strong, resilient infrastructure, 

backed up by thoughtful policies. 

Key Policy Options:

 Reduce transportation emissions by improving fuel efficiency and increasing the 

use of alternative, cleaner fuels

 Align costs and incentives to encourage development patterns, and research 

into new technologies, that can aid in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and 

energy use

 Design and build better infrastructure that is more resilient to anticipated 

climate-change effects, such as severe storms, rising sea-levels, and flooding 

 Avoid developments in vulnerable locations
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Reducing emissions means meeting our transportation demand in a less “carbon-intensive” manner. 

This may mean, for instance, moving more freight by rail or water, or moving more people by 

public transit or in electric vehicles, assuming the electricity is supplied by a renewable or lowcarbon source. Vehicle emissions are expected to decline significantly due to rising fuel-economy 

standards for light- and heavy-duty cars and trucks. Standards are set for all vehicle model years 

through 2025; new policies could accelerate fuel efficiency gains for the years to follow. The 

potential health benefits that could result from lower emissions are also significant.

Technological advances such as carbon capture and sequestration—technologies that can capture 

up to 90 percent of the CO2 emissions produced from the use of fossil fuels in electricity 

generation and industrial processes—may also significantly reduce the greenhouse gas emissions 

being released into the atmosphere.

Oahu, Hawaii—Prioritizing Vulnerable Sites

The Oahu Metropolitan Planning Organization coordinates transportation planning 

for the island of Oahu. A key priority of this MPO is ensuring the resilience of the 

island’s roads, airports, and harbors to climate changes. To begin to address this 

issue, the MPO has identified five high-priority sites that are especially vulnerable 

to extreme weather and climate variability. These places — including Honolulu 

Harbor, Honolulu International Airport, and Farrington Highway on the Waianae 

Coast — could all become more prone to flooding as sea levels rise and storms 

intensify.
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Aligning costs and incentives. Changes in land use that reduce the total demand for transportation—

such as promoting mixed-use developments, enabling convenient bicycling and walking options, 

and other measures that reduce the travel required for commutes and other trips—can lead to 

reduced energy use. Thoughtful policies could effectively reduce demand or make low-emissions 

alternatives more attractive. Such policies could use financial incentives to encourage cleaner types 

of transportation. Other strategies, such as promoting ridesharing, could also help to reduce 

overall transportation demand. 

Policies may change the relative costs of different modes. For instance, increasing the cost of 

carbon could make shipping goods by truck more expensive relative to shipping by barge. Such a 

scenario would also increase the total cost of travel for all modes that rely on fossil fuels. However, 

this kind of policy is likely to stimulate research into new technologies that can reduce emissions 

and energy use, and it may prompt shippers, carriers, vehicle manufacturers and others to seek 

innovative ways to reduce their costs.

Any revenues resulting from new policies could be rebated back to individuals in order to reduce 

overall costs, or could be used to finance resilient, energy-efficient transportation facilities.

Without an alignment of costs and incentives, the marketplace—both individuals and the private 

sector as a whole—is less likely to choose to pursue courses of action that support a responsible 

future. In the absence of coordinated policy, if we fail to create a more resilient infrastructure, the 

effects of climate change—ranging from higher temperatures to sea-level rise—will mean higher 

costs, greater disruption, and more damage to vulnerable communities.
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Designing and building better infrastructure. In addition to reducing contributions to climate changecausing emissions, transportation policies can shape how resilient we are to the effects of climate 

change, both disruptive individual events (that may occur with greater frequency over time) and 

gradual, long-term changes to our atmosphere, land and seas. Infrastructure can be designed and 

built to be less vulnerable to heat or storm events, and design standards can be used to promote 

resilience through the choice of adopting building standards, using stronger building materials or 

building in locations that are less exposed to flooding, heat, and other impacts. While such policies 

may require greater initial investments, they may substantially reduce long-term overall costs. 

Ongoing research into materials and technologies that enhance resilience could also advance the 

state of the practice.

Avoiding vulnerable developments. Policies can also be used to shape where investments are made, 

and to reduce the overall costs to our nation for new developments in vulnerable areas. For 

instance, laws can require the purchase of private insurance in flood-prone areas, or use zoning 

and land-use policies to limit new developments in vulnerable locations. Funding could be made 

available for improving the resilience of critical infrastructure — or funding could be withheld for 

investments that are likely to be short-lived due to the effect of climate-change.
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How We Align Decisions and Dollars
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How will we ensure that we have the institutions and funding we need to accomplish our goals? Our 

institutional structure is piecemeal; it has been built up over many decades, even centuries, in 

response to case-by-case situations. Even the U.S. Department of Transportation, which was 

established nearly half a century ago, is in some ways a collection of agencies that were created at 

different times, for different reasons, with separate sources of funding. In the past, our solution to 

each problem may have been to add a new layer or institution of governance; now, we have a 

collection of stovepipes that do not always work together. The solution is not to add yet more 

stovepipes—we need to reimagine the way we fund and govern our system.

In times of both crisis and opportunity throughout our history, both our federal, state and local 

governments and our robust private sector have found ways to support critical transportation 

infrastructure that has spurred the growth of our Nation. The public and private sectors have 

worked together to raise the funds needed to construct and maintain critical infrastructure, and to 

coordinate investments that ensure that standards are met, and regional and national benefits are 

achieved. Visionary leadership has played an essential role in the planning and construction of 

infrastructure in every mode from the Erie Canal and the Transcontinental Railroad to our 

Key Policy Options:

 Ensure adequate revenues to address critical needs, through existing taxes, new excise 

taxes, user fees, tolls, congestion pricing, VMT fees, or other funding mechanisms

 Reduce spending to match revenues

 Prioritize investments based on performance outcomes

 Ensure clear roles of the public and private sectors: clarify authorities (greater federal role, 

the devolution of more functions to non-federal entities, privatization); improve 

investment coordination between states, MPOs, and private investors
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national air traffic control system and interstate highways. These investments have connected 

population centers to our frontiers, opened new markets and created economic opportunities for 

all Americans. Today, however, we confront institutional structures that often hamper, rather 

than facilitate, the sophisticated decisionmaking and funding mechanisms we need to tackle our 

toughest transportation challenges. 

Ensuring adequate revenues. The overall funding challenge is stark: how will we fund the 

maintenance, expansion and modernization of our transportation system? This is not just a 

question about how much money is needed—it is also a question about what kind of 

transportation system we want, who should be responsible for what, and how we ensure that we 

make the best use of limited public resources.

Revenues can be derived from a variety of sources, including mechanisms already in place (such as 

state and federal gasoline taxes), excise taxes, user fees (such as vehicle-registration fees), tolls, 

Utah’s Unified Transportation Plan: 2011-2040

Future revenue increases are needed to maintain, preserve, and expand our state and local road 

and transit systems. Utah’s Unified Transportation Plan cannot be implemented by using only 

the future revenue stream from existing funding sources. The legislature, local communities, 

and the public will decide how to raise this revenue. The following specific strategies were 

assumed but will likely vary at the discretion of Utah’s state and local elected officials:

 Increase statewide fuel tax or equivalent 

 Increase statewide vehicle registration fee

 Add local-option taxes (varies by MPO and county) 
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congestion-pricing programs, and vehicle-miles-traveled fees. If we want our nation to continue to 

support a world-class transportation system that can meet the needs of a growing population and 

a growing economy, we will need to raise funding levels to support the necessary public 

investment, and we will need policies that spur private investment. In recent years, many of the 

revenues paid by users that support public funding of our transportation system, such as the 

federal gasoline tax, have proven insufficient to meet the challenge of maintaining and 

modernizing our current system. For example, over the past decade, lawmakers have transferred 

more than $65 billion of general funds into the Highway Trust Fund to keep it solvent.

As gasoline-powered vehicles become even more fuel-efficient, electric and alternative-fuel vehicles 

become more popular, and the cost of building and maintaining infrastructure continues to rise, 

the purchasing power of the gas tax will keep declining. We may need to revisit the fundamental 

assumptions that underpin how our surface transportation infrastructure is funded. The 

Congressional Budget Office estimates that we will face a $167 billion budget shortfall over the 

next decade if we choose to maintain current spending levels without addressing revenues. This is 

unsustainable.

In recent years, a number of proposals have come forward to raise revenues to support federal 

surface transportation programs. The CBO estimates that a fuel tax increase of 10 to 15 cents per 

gallon would restore its purchasing power to roughly its 1993 level, after adjusting for inflation, 

and would be sufficient to accommodate current levels of spending over the next decade. Fuel 

taxes could also be pegged to inflation, so that future increases in the costs of building and 

maintaining infrastructure trigger automatic adjustments to tax rates. New sources of funding 

could also be derived from alternative user fees, such as mileage-based user fees or federal vehicle 

registration taxes. Finally, user-based revenues could be further augmented, or replaced, by more 

broad-based revenue streams, such as a dedicated national sales tax, carbon tax or income tax.
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  A Better Path 313

There are also revenue challenges associated with the rail, marine, and aviation sectors. In some 

ways, these are even more difficult, given the complicated mix of public and private revenue 

streams. One priority should be to ensure that revenues are aligned as much as possible with the 

policies and goals associated with each mode: funding should support priorities.

Reducing expenditures. Alternatively, we could decide that it is infeasible or undesirable to raise 

revenues for surface transportation and instead cut federal funding of transportation so that it is 

in line with dedicated revenues. This would require an approximate 30 percent cut in current 

federal funding levels. Cuts could be made in a variety of ways. Currently, the federal government 

pays for 80 percent of most capital projects. State matching requirements could be increased so 

that states assume more of the burden of funding capital projects. Eligibility of projects for federal 

funding could be narrowed. Federal funding for transit and transportation alternatives from gas 

tax revenues, which account for approximately 17 percent of Highway Trust Fund revenues, could 

be eliminated in favor of road projects. Federal funding could be prioritized for critical 

maintenance, reconstruction and replacement of existing roads, bridges and transit infrastructure, 

while federal support for capacity expansion projects could be limited to financing and tax 

subsidies.

Prioritizing investments to emphasize performance. Transportation programs and funding sources 

could be more closely tied to performance metrics, so that a greater portion of federal funding is 

dedicated to investments that demonstrably support national objectives. Federal requirements 

could be strengthened to ensure that lower levels of government use planning processes that fully 

consider the economic costs and benefits of transportation projects, and collect data on completed 

projects that allows them to assess whether the stated goals of a particular project are actually 

being met. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  Shaping Our Future: Choices in Changing Times  A Better Path 314

Ensuring clear roles. Proper governance is about much more than the question of doing more or 

less: it should be about doing things better. Transportation programs and institutions could be 

reformed to increase their efficiency and effectiveness. This could result in better decisions, lower 

costs, and faster delivery of infrastructure projects. 

Traditionally, most federal surface transportation funding is distributed to states through 

formulas set by Congress and based on factors such as road miles, road usage, and state 

population. One way to reform federal transportation programs would be to revisit who has 

authority over how federal transportation dollars are spent. Currently, only a small portion of 

federal funding is allocated at the discretion of the U.S. DOT; most transportation investment 

decisions are made by states and metropolitan planning organizations. A greater portion of federal 

funding could be dedicated to competitive grant and financing programs with criteria tied to 

national objectives.

Or, the federal government could be given less control over federal funding; investment decisions 

could be transferred to states, or to other governance structures, including new institutions,

perhaps organized around emerging megaregions. Federal requirements tied to federal funding—

such as environmental and labor standards—could be reduced or eliminated in favor of standards

established by other bodies. Federal transportation funding could be allocated in block grants, 

reducing limitations on the use of funding to support particular programmatic objectives such as 

safety or air quality. Alternatively, increased funding flexibility could be granted as a reward for 

states that demonstrate good governance and planning practices.
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Policies could be adopted that support increased private sector participation in the transportation 

sector with the goal of speeding the delivery of projects and improving the efficiency of operations 

and maintenance. More states could adopt policies that support the use of private financing to 

deliver transportation projects and the federal government could support tax policies that 

encourage greater private investment in infrastructure. Management of transportation systems 

and facilities, such as the air traffic control system or public toll roads, could be privatized or 

restructured to operate more like a business, potentially generating near-term revenues and 

creating long-term cost savings for government agencies. Regulatory bodies could find ways to 

reduce barriers of entry and encourage competition among private firms seeking to provide 

transportation services in all modes. 
Beyond Traffic  Draft  A Better Path: Policy Conclusions 316

Conclusions

Our transportation network is the tie that literally binds our nation together. It sows the seeds of 

economic opportunity and national prosperity one row at a time, and links those rows to each 

other—neighbor to neighbor, town to town, state to state, all into one nation. It is the finest 

transportation system the world has ever known. But it is aging and increasingly incapable of 

bearing the load our future demands.

It is perhaps the greatest testament to our forbearers and their dedication to us that we enjoy this 

system in relative complacency. They built the transcontinental railroad. They built the Panama 

Canal. They built a national highway system. They carved an inland waterway of locks and dams. 

They established the world’s first—and still the most robust—air traffic control system. They 

broke the sound barrier and put men on the moon. It is because they envisioned a better future 

and endured sacrifices to achieve it that we even are in a position to choose which future we want 

now.

But there is a difference between having choices and making choices. By knowing more about 

trends impacting upon our transportation system over the long-term, we hope to make clear that 

current and future conditions will require greater coordination between levels of government and 

between government and the private sector. We will make our choices one stitch at a time, in state 

capitals, city halls, corporate boardrooms and union halls. All of them, put together, reflect where 

we will go.

The future is always a choice.