United States Government Accountability Office

GAO Testimony 

Before the Subcommittee on Federalism 

and the Census, Committee on 

Government Reform, House of 

Representatives

2010 CENSUS

Planning and Testing 

Activities Are Making 

Progress 

Statement of Brenda S. Farrell 

Acting Director 

Strategic Issues 

For Release on Delivery

Expected at 10:00 a.m. EST 

Wednesday, March 1, 2006

 

GAO-06-465T 
What GAO Found

United States Government Accountability Office

Why GAO Did This Study

Highlights

Accountability Integrity Reliability

March 1, 2006

2010 CENSUS

Planning and Testing Activities Are 

Highlights of GAO-06-465T, a report to the Making Progress 

Subcommittee on Federalism and the 

Census, Committee on Government 

Reform, House of Representatives

Rigorous planning is key to a 

successful census as it helps 

ensure greater effectiveness and 

efficiency. The U.S. Census Bureau

(Bureau) estimates the 2010

Census will cost around $11.3

billion, which would make it the 

most expensive census in our 

country’s history, even after 

adjusting for inflation. GAO was 

asked to testify on (1) the Bureau’s 

progress in preparing for the 2010

Census, (2) the challenges that

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita might

pose for the Bureau’s future

activities, and, (3) more broadly,

the importance of planning for a 

range of events that could severely

disrupt the census. 

What GAO Recommends

GAO is not making new 

recommendations at this time, but 

past reports have contained GAO’s 

views on steps the Bureau needs to

take to improve its planning

processes, MCDs, enumerator 

training, human capital planning, 

and other aspects of the census. 

The Bureau generally concurred 

with these prior recommendations 

and has taken action to implement

some of them. 

The Bureau’s preparations for the 2010 Census are making progress along 

several fronts. Of particular note is (1) the re-engineered design of the 

census, which holds promise for controlling costs and maintaining accuracy;

(2) the Bureau’s early planning process which was more rigorous than for 

the 2000 Census; and (3) the Bureau’s greater willingness to outsource key

census-taking operations that would be difficult for it to carry out on its 

own. 

Census Costs Are Increasing (Average Cost per Housing Unit in Constant Fiscal 2000 

Dollars). 

At the same time, it will be important for the Bureau to resolve issues that 

pose a risk to a successful census. For example, the Bureau plans to use 

hand-held mobile computing devices (MCD) to develop the census address 

list and collect data from millions of households that do not respond to the 

initial census questionnaire. The MCDs are an important step forward 

because they are designed to replace many of the paper questionnaires and 

maps that were used in past censuses, and are a key element of the Bureau’s

Field Data Collection Automation program. The Bureau has never before

used the devices in a decennial. In tests held in 2004 and 2006 to date, 

census workers found the MCDs easy to use, but sometimes unreliable, 

which reduced efficiency. Some workers also deviated from prescribed 

procedures which points to the need for better training. The Bureau has 

taken steps to address these issues and future tests will help determine the 

effectiveness of the Bureau’s actions. The Bureau also faces a possible brain 

drain, as 45 percent of its workforce will be eligible to retire by 2010. 

Although the Bureau has taken preventative measures, it could improve 

those efforts by, among other actions, strengthening the monitoring of its 

mission-critical workforce. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita highlight the 

importance of contingency planning and examining whether the Bureau’s 

existing operations are adequate for capturing the demographic and physical 

changes that have occurred along the Gulf Coast. 

Overall, as the Bureau’s preparations for 2010 continue, it will be important 

for Congress to monitor the Bureau’s progress in (1) identifying and 

diagnosing problems, (2) devising solutions, and (3) integrating refinements 

in time to be evaluated during the Census Dress Rehearsal scheduled for 

2008.

www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-465T.

To view the full product, including the scope 

and methodology, click on the link above. 

For more information, contact Brenda S. 

Farrell at (202) 512-3604 or farrellb@gao.gov. 
Mr. Chairman, Mr. Clay, and Members of the Subcommittee: 

Thank you for the opportunity to be here today to provide the 

subcommittee a progress report on the U.S. Census Bureau’s (Bureau) 

preparations for the 2010 Census. For the past several years, we have

issued several reports on the Bureau’s 2010 planning and testing efforts at 

the subcommittee’s request.1

 My remarks today highlight some of the key 

findings in our reports on preparations for 2010, as well as present the 

preliminary results of ongoing work we plan to issue in the near future on 

the Bureau’s efforts to build a complete and accurate address list. 

Additionally, I will provide our preliminary observations on the challenges 

that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita might pose for the Bureau’s future 

activities and, more broadly, for the Bureau’s continuity of operations 

planning to help it prepare for a range of events that could severely disrupt 

the census. 

Importantly, our perspective on the census goes well beyond these recent

studies. Because the decennial has grown in cost and complexity since 

1970, we have been reviewing the national enumeration for decades on

behalf of Congress. Over the years, through scores of reports and 

testimonies, we have acquired broad institutional knowledge that gives us 

a historical view of the key ingredients of a successful census. 

Today’s hearing is particularly timely. The Bureau is holding a test census 

in the central portion of Travis County, Texas, and at the Cheyenne River 

American Indian Reservation and Tribal Trust Lands in South Dakota, 

where it is evaluating key operations and equipment it plans to employ for 

the full enumeration in 2010. “Census Day” for this exercise is April 1, 

2006; after this, the Bureau will have only one more major opportunity to 

assess its census taking-procedures—a “dress rehearsal” scheduled for 

2008. Moreover, the actual census is little more than 4 years away, and 

before too long the Bureau will transition from preparatory to operational 

activities, leaving little room for delays and missteps. 

With this in mind, I commend the subcommittee for calling today’s 

hearing, as past experience has shown that strong and continuing 

congressional involvement—especially while there is still time to make 

 1

 See for example, GAO, 2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon, 

GAO-04-37 (Washington, D.C.: Jan. 15, 2004), and GAO, 2010 Census: Basic Design Has

Potential, but Remaining Challenges Need Prompt Resolution, GAO-05-9 (Washington,

D.C.: Jan. 12, 2005). 

Page 1 GAO-06-465T 
decisions and influence the direction of the census—is essential to the 

decennial’s ultimate success. An accurate population count is critical 

because the Constitution requires a census to apportion seats in the House

of Representatives. Census data are also used to redraw congressional 

districts, allocate approximately $200 billion in federal assistance to state 

and local governments each year, and for numerous other public and 

private sector purposes. 

My remarks are based on our analysis of Bureau documents and data, and

interviews with key Bureau officials. In addition, to get a street-level

perspective of the performance of key operations, we visited the Texas 

and South Dakota test sites, as well as Queens, New York, and several 

counties in rural south-central Georgia, where an earlier field test was held 

in 2004. During these visits, we interviewed local census office managers 

and staff, viewed various data collection activities, and observed training 

sessions the Bureau held for two different field worker positions: address 

canvassers, who go door-to-door verifying addresses as part of the 

Bureau’s effort to build a complete and accurate address list, and 

enumerators, who collect information from those households that do not 

return their initial census questionnaire. 

My major point today is that the Bureau is further along in planning the 

2010 Census compared to a similar point during the 2000 Census cycle. 

Particularly noteworthy is (1) the re-engineered design of the census, 

which holds promise for controlling costs and maintaining accuracy; (2) 

the Bureau’s early planning process which was more rigorous than for the 

2000 Census; and (3) the Bureau’s greater willingness to outsource key 

census-taking operations that would be difficult for it to carry out on its 

own. 

At the same time, it will be important for the Bureau to resolve issues that 

pose a risk to a successful census. Specific steps we have recommended in 

our prior work include (1) improving the reliability of the hand-held 

mobile computing devices (MCD) the Bureau plans to use for collecting 

field data, (2) ensuring census workers follow prescribed procedures, and 

(3) strengthening its human capital efforts so that it has the skill mix 

necessary to meet its future requirements. The Bureau is aware of these 

issues and has taken actions to address them. Future tests will shed light 

on the effectiveness of the Bureau’s efforts. 

As a backdrop to these findings, I want to highlight several broad themes 

that have emerged from our work over the years—lenses really—through 

which to view the Bureau’s business environment. They are important 

Page 2 GAO-06-465T 
because they ultimately affect the Bureau’s readiness to conduct the 

census and the quality of the results. 

• First, because the scale of the census is enormous, streamlined and 

efficient operations are critical for cost-effectiveness. For 

example, during the 2000 Census, the Bureau hired more than 

500,000 enumerators, temporarily making it one of the nation’s 

largest employers; opened nearly 24,000 questionnaire assistance 

centers; processed 1.5 billion pieces of paper; and, in 10 weeks, 

followed up with 42 million households that did not mail back their 

census questionnaires. The size of the census means that small 

problems can magnify quickly, and big problems could be 

overwhelming. For example, 60 seconds might seem like an 

inconsequential amount of time, but in 2000, if enumerators had 

spent just 1 minute more at each household during nonresponse 

follow-up, it could have added almost $10 million in labor costs to 

the census, assuming a pay rate of around $13 per hour (wages 

ranged from $8.25 to $18.50 per hour for enumerators in 2000, 

depending on location). 

• A second theme is the importance of sound risk management, as 

the risks to a successful census are interrelated, and a shortcoming 

in one operation could trigger other activities to spiral downward. 

For example, a low mail response rate would drive up the followup workload, which in turn would increase staffing needs and 

costs. Of course the reverse is also true, where a success in one 

operation could have a number of positive downstream impacts. 

Rigorous up-front preparations, testing, and where feasible, 

contingency planning, are the best ways to stave off problems. 

Likewise, management information systems capable of tracking 

key operations with real-time measures are essential because they 

enable the Bureau to quickly address trouble spots. The Bureau 

did this successfully in recruiting enumerators for the 2000 Census 

where, to help ensure it had a steady supply of candidates for its 

500,000 enumerator positions, it set a recruiting goal of 2.4 million 

qualified applicants. Because the Bureau tracked the progress local 

census offices were making in meeting their individual goals, it was 

able to quickly raise pay rates and take other actions at those 

offices where recruiting was lagging. Partly as a result of its 

monitoring efforts, the Bureau exceeded its recruitment goal by 

100,000 people. 

Page 3 GAO-06-465T 
• Third, it is important for the Bureau to stay on schedule, as the 

census is conducted against a backdrop of immutable deadlines 

and an elaborate chain of interrelated pre- and post-Census Day 

activities are predicated upon those dates. Specifically, the 

Secretary of Commerce is legally required to (1) conduct the 

census on April 1 of the decennial year, (2) report the state 

population counts to the President for purposes of congressional 

apportionment by December 31 of the decennial year, and (3) send 

population tabulations to the states for purposes of redistricting no 

later than one year after the April 1 census date. To meet these

reporting requirements, census activities need to take place at

specific times and in the proper sequence. Moreover, considerable 

risk could accompany any significant design changes that occur 

late in the decade because of the difficulties in properly testing, 

evaluating, and integrating them with existing operations. As 

Census Day approaches, the tolerance for any operational delays 

or changes becomes increasingly small. 

• Fourth, the decennial census is a shared national undertaking,

where Congress, other federal agencies, state and local 

governments, nonprofit and private organizations, and ultimately 

the American public, all play vital roles in securing a complete and 

accurate population tally. Recognizing this, the Bureau fosters 

partnerships with these various entities to help with such activities 

as recruiting census workers, boosting participation, and building 

the Bureau’s master address list. Mobilizing and coordinating 

these organizations requires an enormous effort on the Bureau’s 

part. During the 2000 Census, about 140,000 organizations 

participated in its partnership program, according to the Bureau. 

Collectively, these themes point to the following: The decennial census is 

an inherently fragile endeavor. On the one hand, if all the enumeration 

activities perform as planned, the response rate is as expected, the Bureau 

meets its enumerator hiring goals, and operations stay on schedule, the 

2010 Census will likely produce acceptable results. On the other hand, 

everything from a technological glitch to national and world events could 

trigger a chain of setbacks that could jeopardize the accuracy and 

completeness of the count. This is why it is so important for Congress to 

follow the census closely and help ensure it stays on track. 

Thorough and comprehensive planning is crucial to the success of any 

large, long-term project, especially one with the cost, complexity, and high Background 

Page 4 GAO-06-465T 
stakes of the decennial census. Indeed, the Bureau’s past experience has 

shown that the lack of proper planning can increase the costs and risks of 

downstream operations. 

Past experience has also underscored the importance of strong oversight

of the census to (1) inform congressional decision making on budgetary 

and operational matters, (2) raise Congress’s confidence that the Bureau 

has chosen an optimum design and will manage operations and control 

costs effectively, and (3) help ensure the progress the Bureau has made 

thus far in refining, planning, and testing census-taking activities, 

continues as the Bureau shifts into the operational phases of the 

decennial. 

Given the escalating cost of the census in an era of serious national fiscal

challenges, oversight will be particularly important. Bureau officials 

estimate the total life-cycle cost of the 2010 Census will be around $11.3 

billion, which would make it the most expensive census in our country’s 

history, even after adjusting for inflation.2

Although some cost growth can be expected, in part, because the number 

of housing units—and hence the Bureau’s workload—has grown, the cost 

escalation has far exceeded the housing unit increase. The Bureau 

estimates that the number of housing units for the 2010 Census will 

increase by 10 percent over 2000 Census levels; meanwhile, the average 

cost per housing unit for 2010 is expected to increase by approximately 29 

percent from 2000 levels (from $56 to $72), nearly five and a half times 

greater than the $13 it cost to count each household in 1970 (see fig. 1). 

 2

 The census life cycle extends over a number of years. For the 2000 Census, the life-cycle 

spanned from fiscal year 1991 through fiscal year 2003 when the Bureau completed its

evaluation activities. 

Page 5 GAO-06-465T 
Figure 1: Decennial Census Average Cost per Housing Unit (in Constant Fiscal 

Year 2000 Dollars) 

80 Dollars per housing unit

60

40

20

0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

(projected) Census year

Source: GAO analysis of U.S. Census Bureau figures.

13

24

32

56

72

A key reason for the increasing cost of the census is that because of 

various societal trends such as concerns over personal privacy, more nonEnglish speakers, and more people residing in makeshift and other 

nontraditional living arrangements, the Bureau is finding it increasingly 

difficult to locate people and get them to participate in the census. As a 

result, the Bureau needs to spend more money simply to achieve the 

accuracy of earlier enumerations. This can be seen, for example, in the

rising cost of securing public participation in the census. During the 1990

Census, the Bureau spent an average of $0.88 per housing unit (in 2000 

dollars) to market the census and was able to rely on a pro-bono 

advertising campaign. The response rate was 65 percent. For the 2000 

Census, recognizing that extra effort would be needed to motivate 

participation, the Bureau used a paid advertising campaign developed by a 

consortium of private-sector advertising agencies. It cost an average of 

$3.19 per housing unit (in 2000 dollars) and achieved a response rate of 64

percent. As the Bureau plans for 2010, maintaining cost effectiveness will 

be one of the single greatest challenges confronting the agency. 

Page 6 GAO-06-465T 
The Bureau’s preparations for the 2010 Census appear to be further along 

than at a similar point during the planning cycle for the 2000 Census. For 

example, the fundamental design of the 2010 Census has the potential to 

contain costs and improve coverage and accuracy, and the Bureau’s 

planning process for 2010 is generally more thorough than was the case 

for the 2000 Census. At the same time, the 2004 test and, to date, the 2006

test, have identified areas where improvements are needed. Uncovering 

trouble spots is an important objective of any test, thus it is not surprising, 

and, in fact, should be expected and commended that problems were 

found. Moreover, the Bureau has taken steps to resolve the issues that 

have surfaced. Remaining activities in the 2006 test, and the 2008 Dress 

Rehearsal, will help determine the effectiveness of the Bureau’s efforts. 

The Bureau’s

Preparations for 2010 

Are Progressing but 

Certain Challenges 

Will Need to Be 

Addressed 

The Design of the 2010 

Census Shows Promise 

The Bureau developed a design for the 2010 Census early in the decade, 

and Congress has been supportive of the Bureau’s approach. The situation 

10 years ago was vastly different. In testimony before Congress in late 

1995, we expressed concern that Congress and the Bureau had not agreed

on the fundamental design and budget of the census, and that the longer 

this situation continued, the opportunity for a well-planned census would

be lost and the greater the risk that hundreds of millions of dollars would 

be spent inefficiently.3

Key features of the design of the 2010 Census include the following: 

• Enhancing procedures for building its address list, known as the Master 

Address File, and its associated geographic information system, called the 

Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing (TIGER)®

database;4

 

• Replacing the census long-form questionnaire with the American 

Community Survey (ACS)5

; and 

• Conducting a short-form-only decennial census supported by early 

research and testing. 

 3

 GAO, Decennial Census: Fundamental Design Decisions Merit Congressional Attention, 

GAO/T-GGD-96-37 (Washington D.C.: Oct. 25, 1995). 

4

 TIGER is a registered trademark of the U.S. Census Bureau. 

5

 ACS is intended to be a monthly survey of 250,000 households. 

Page 7 GAO-06-465T 
Also noteworthy is the fact that for the 2010 Census, the Bureau plans to 

make the most extensive use of contractors in its history, turning to the 

private sector to supply a number of different mission-critical functions, 

including the Bureau’s nationwide data processing activities, and 

improvements to the Master Address File and TIGER. The Bureau 

estimates that of the $11.3 billion total cost of the census, around $1.9 

billion (approximately 17 percent) will be spent via its seven largest 

contracts which include information technology systems, advertising, and

the leasing of local census offices. 

The Bureau is relying more heavily on contractors because it recognizes it 

needs to look outside the agency to obtain the expertise and services 

essential for a successful enumeration. That said, the Bureau’s contracting 

efforts during the 2000 Census did not always go smoothly, and it will be 

important for Bureau management to focus on its procurement activities 

to help ensure the 2010 contractors fulfill the Bureau’s expectations. Our 

companion testimony at today’s hearing provides greater detail on two of 

the Bureau’s information technology contracts.6

In concept, the Bureau’s approach has the potential to achieve its principal

goals for the 2010 Census which include (1) increasing the relevance and

timeliness of data, (2) reducing operational risk, (3) increasing coverage 

and accuracy, and (4) containing costs. However, some aspects of the 

design, including the use of technology that has never been employed for 

the decennial, as well as the heavy reliance on contractors, introduce new 

risk. This is not inappropriate as the need to secure a complete count and 

addressing problems with past censuses call for bold new initiatives that 

entail risk. What will be important is how effectively the Bureau manages 

those risks. 

Another sign of progress can be found in the thoroughness of the Bureau’s 

planning process where the Bureau has taken several positive steps to 

correct problems it encountered when planning past censuses. For 

example, early in the decade, senior Bureau staff considered various goals 

for the 2010 Census and articulated a design to achieve those goals. 

Moreover, staff with operational experience in the census participated in

The 2010 Planning Process 

Is Generally More 

Rigorous Than for Past 

Efforts 

 6

 GAO, Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management of Key 2010 

Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done, GAO-06-444T, (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 1,

2006). 

Page 8 GAO-06-465T 
the 2010 design process. According to Bureau officials, this was a 

departure from the 2000 planning effort when Bureau staff with little 

operational experience played key roles in the design process, which 

resulted in impractical reform ideas that could not be implemented. 

At the same time, the Bureau’s planning process could benefit from an 

overall business or project plan that (1) includes milestones for 

completing key activities; (2) itemizes the estimated cost of each 

component; (3) articulates a clear system of coordination among project 

components; and (4) translates key goals into measurable, operational 

terms to provide meaningful guidance for planning and measuring 

progress. Some, but not all of this information is available in various 

documents, but one would need to piece it together. Noting the 

importance of this information to inform congressional decision-making 

and oversight of the census, as well as to improve the Bureau’s planning 

process, in our January 2004 report, we recommended that the Bureau 

combine this information into a single, comprehensive document. The 

Bureau disagreed with the recommendation although it said it would 

develop such a plan nonetheless and provide it to GAO, Congress, and 

other stakeholders. The Bureau has not yet issued this document. 

A complete and accurate address list is the cornerstone of a successful 

census because it identifies all households that are to receive a census 

questionnaire, and serves as the control mechanism for following up with 

households that fail to respond. Although the Bureau went to great lengths 

to build a complete and accurate Master Address File for the 2000 Census, 

of the 116 million housing units contained in the database, the Bureau 

estimates it incorrectly included 2.3 million housing units and missed 

another 2.7 million housing units. In light of these and other problems, the 

Bureau concluded that enhancements to the Master Address File and 

TIGER were necessary to make census data more complete and accurate.

In the preliminary results of our ongoing work on enhancements to the 

Master Address File and TIGER, we found that the Bureau has developed

procedures to help resolve each of the broad categories of problems 

experienced in 2000 including addresses that were duplicated, missed, 

deleted, and incorrectly located on a map (a problem known as geocoding

error). The Bureau has several ongoing evaluations that should provide 

valuable information on the effectiveness of these procedures. 

Address File and Map 

Improvements Could Help 

Resolve Past Problems if 

Operational Challenges 

Are Resolved 

Page 9 GAO-06-465T 
The Bureau is also taking steps to improve the accuracy of the TIGER 

maps which, among other benefits, should help prevent geocoding errors. 

In June 2002, the Bureau awarded an 8-year contract, in excess of $200 

million intended to, among other tasks, correct in TIGER the location of 

every street, boundary, and other map feature so that coordinates are 

aligned with their true geographic locations. According to the Bureau, the 

contractor completed this work for 250 counties in 2003, 602 counties in 

2004, and 623 counties in 2005. Furthermore, the contractor plans to 

deliver the remaining 1,758 county maps between 2006 and 2008. 

However, based on this time line, it appears that several hundred county 

TIGER maps will not be updated in time for the Local Update of Census 

Addresses (LUCA) program, through which the Bureau gives local and 

tribal government officials the opportunity to review and suggest 

corrections to the address lists and maps for their jurisdictions. LUCA is to 

begin in July 2007 when, according to the current schedule, the Bureau 

will still have 368 counties to update in 2008 alone. These counties will not 

have the most current maps to review but will instead be given the most 

recent maps the Bureau has available. According to the Bureau, some of

the maps have been updated for the American Community Survey, but 

others have not been updated since the 2000 Census, which could affect 

the quality of a local government’s review. The Bureau is aware of the 

overlapping schedules, but told us that it needs to start LUCA in 2007 in 

order to complete the operation in time for address canvassing. 

LUCA is an example of how the Bureau partners with external entities, 

tapping into their knowledge of local populations and housing conditions 

in order to secure a more complete count. In 1994, Congress required the 

Bureau to develop a local address review program to give local and tribal

governments greater input into the Bureau’s address list development 

process.7

When the Bureau conducted LUCA for the 2000 Census, the results were

mixed. In our 1999 congressional testimony, we noted that many local

governments said they were satisfied with specific aspects of the materials 

and assistance the Bureau provided to them. At the same time, LUCA may 

 7

 Census Address List Improvement Act, Pub. L. No. 103-430, Oct. 31, 1994. 

Page 10 GAO-06-465T 
have stretched the resources of local governments, and participation in the 

program could have been better. 8

The census schedule will also be a challenge for an operation called 

address canvassing, where census workers are to walk every street in the

country, verifying addresses and updating maps as necessary. The Bureau 

has allotted 6 weeks to verify the nation’s inventory of 116 million housing 

units. This translates into a completion rate of over 2.75 million housing 

units every day. The challenge in maintaining this schedule can be seen in

the fact that for the 2000 Census, it took the Bureau 18 weeks just to 

canvass “city-style” address areas, which are localities where the U.S. 

Postal Service uses house-number and street-name addresses for most 

mail delivery. 

Of particular concern is the previous unreliability of the MCDs the Bureau 

plans to use for its address canvassing and nonresponse follow-up 

operations (see fig. 2). 

Figure 2: The Census Bureau Plans to Use Mobile Computing Devices to Collect 

and Transmit Field Data 

The Unreliability of Mobile 

Computing Devices Has 

Been Problematic 

Source: GAO.

 8

 GAO, 2000 Census: Local Address Review Program Has Had Mixed Results to Date,

GAO/T-GGD-99-184 (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 29, 1999).

Page 11 GAO-06-465T 
For address canvassing, the MCDs are to be loaded with address 

information and maps; for nonresponse follow-up, they will be used in lieu 

of paper questionnaires and maps to collect household information. The 

MCDs are also equipped with global positioning system (GPS) receivers, a 

satellite-based navigational system to help enumerators locate street 

addresses and to collect coordinates for each structure in their assignment 

area. Bureau officials expect the MCDs will help improve the costeffectiveness of the census by allowing it to eliminate millions of paper 

questionnaires and maps, improve the quality of address data, and update 

enumerators’ nonresponse follow-up workload on a daily basis. 

The move from paper to digital was a very positive step. At the same time, 

rigorous testing is essential to assess their durability, functionality, and 

that enumerators are able to use them. The MCDs were first evaluated for 

nonresponse follow-up as part of the 2004 Census Test, and for address 

canvassing in 2005 as part of the 2006 Census Test. The Bureau will use 

MCDs next month for nonresponse follow-up in the 2006 test. 

In both our prior and ongoing work, we found the test results have been 

mixed. On the one hand, the census workers we observed had little 

difficulty using the MCDs. For example, address canvassers we 

interviewed said the electronic maps were accurate and that they were 

able to find their assignment areas with relative ease. On the other hand, 

the reliability of the MCDs proved troublesome during the 2004 and to 

date, the 2006 test. For example, in 2004, the MCDs experienced 

transmission problems, memory overloads, and difficulties with a mapping 

feature--all of which added inefficiencies to the nonresponse follow-up 

operation. 

The Bureau is using MCDs made by a different manufacturer for the 2006 

test which resolved some of these problems, but other difficulties emerged 

during address canvassing. For example, the device was slow to pull up 

and exit address registers, accept the data entered by the canvassers, and 

link map locations to addresses for multi-unit structures. Furthermore, the 

MCDs would sometimes lock up, requiring canvassers to reboot them. 

Canvassers also found it difficult to transmit an address and map location 

that needed to be deleted from the master list. The Bureau was unable to

fix this problem so canvassers had to return to the local census office 

where technicians dealt with the problem. The reliability of the GPS was 

also problematic. Some workers had problems receiving a signal, and 

when a signal was available, it was sometimes slow to locate assignment 

areas and correct map locations. 

Page 12 GAO-06-465T 
According to the Bureau, these problems reduced the productivity of the

canvassers, and the Bureau stopped the operation 10 days after it was 

scheduled to finish. Even with the extension, however, the Bureau was 

unable to complete the job, leaving census blocks in both Austin and on 

the Cheyenne Indian Reservation unverified. 

According to the Bureau, the problems were caused by unstable software 

and insufficient memory. The Bureau delayed the start of address 

canvassing for a month at both test sites to troubleshoot the MCDs. 

However, it was unable to fix all the problems and decided to move 

forward with the test. 

The MCDs will be evaluated again next month as part of the 2006 Census 

Test and we will be on-site to assess the extent to which the Bureau has 

fixed the MCD problems. However, even if the MCDs prove to be more 

reliable, questions remain for the future. The Bureau has acknowledged 

that the MCD’s performance is an issue, but believes it will be addressed 

as part of its contract for the Field Data Collection Automation (FDCA) 

program, which is aimed at automating the Bureau’s field data collection 

efforts, and is scheduled to be awarded later this month (the MCDs used 

for the 2006 test are off-the-shelf purchases that were customized by the 

Bureau). 

As a result, the 2008 Dress Rehearsal will be the first time the entire 

system—including the contractor’s MCD—will be tested under conditions 

that are as close as possible to the actual census. If new problems emerge, 

little time will be left to develop and test any refinements. 

Our field observations also suggest that the training of census workers 

could be improved to help ensure they follow proper procedures. Failure 

to do so could affect the reliability of census data. During the 2004 test, for 

example, we observed enumerators who did not read the coverage and

race/ethnicity question exactly as worded, and did not properly use 

flashcards the Bureau had developed that were designed to help 

respondents answer specific questions. During the address canvassing 

operation for the 2006 test, we observed workers who were not properly 

verifying addresses, or were unsure of what to do when they happened 

upon dwellings such as duplex housing units. In our past work, we 

recommended that the Bureau take a more strategic approach to training, 

and that local census offices include in their instruction special modules 

Page 13 GAO-06-465T 
covering the unique living arrangements that might be prevalent in that 

particular jurisdiction.9

 

The Bureau acknowledged that the shortcomings we identified require 

improvement, and indicated that for the 2006 test, it will enhance training 

to reinforce the procedural requirements. The Bureau also intends to 

incorporate additional training to prepare enumerators to handle realistic 

situations encountered in their work. As part of our field work for the 

2006 test, we will review the improvements the Bureau made to its training 

procedures. 

If the operational challenges of conducting a census were not daunting 

enough, the Bureau faces the additional challenge of a possible brain 

drain. In our June 2005 report, we noted that the Bureau has projected that 

45 percent of its workforce will be eligible to retire by 2010.10 The Bureau 

has long benefited from its core group of managers and experienced staff 

who developed their expertise over several census cycles; their 

institutional knowledge is critical to keeping the census on track. Indeed, 

according to Bureau officials, many experienced employees retired or left

the agency after the 1990 Census which affected planning efforts for the 

2000 Census. 

Leading organizations go beyond simply backfilling vacancies, and instead 

focus on strengthening both current and future organizational capacity. In

this regard the Bureau acknowledges that re-engineering the 2010 Census 

requires new skills in project, contract, and financial management; 

advanced programming and technology; as well as other areas. To help 

address this important human capital issue, the Bureau has implemented 

various succession planning and management efforts to better position the 

agency to meet its future skill requirements. 

Still, we found that the Bureau could take additional steps to enhance its 

succession planning and management efforts and recommended that the

Bureau (1) strengthen the monitoring of its mission-critical workforce, 

(2) seek appropriate opportunities to coordinate and share core 

succession training and development programs with other outside 

Succession Planning 

and Management Will 

Be Important in the 

Years Ahead 

 9

 See GAO-05-9, p. 30. 

10 GAO, Human Capital: Selected Agencies Have Opportunities to Enhance Existing 

Succession Planning and Management Efforts, GAO-05-585 (Washington D.C.: June 30, 

2005). 

Page 14 GAO-06-465T 
agencies, and (3) evaluate core succession training and development 

programs to gauge the extent to which they contribute to enhancing 

organizational capacity. The Bureau agreed with our recommendations 

and indicated it was taking steps to implement them. 

On August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina devastated the coastal communities 

of Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Alabama. A few weeks later, 

Hurricane Rita plowed through the border area of Texas and Louisiana. 

Damage was widespread. In the wake of Katrina, for example, the Red 

Cross estimated that nearly 525,000 people were displaced. Their homes 

were declared uninhabitable, and streets, bridges, and other landmarks 

were destroyed. Approximately 90,000 square miles were affected overall 

and, as shown in figure 3, entire communities were obliterated. 

Figure 3: Aerial Photograph of the Devastation in the Lower 9th Ward in New

Orleans 

The destruction and chaos caused by the storms underscore the nation’s 

vulnerability to all types of hazards, and highlights how important it is for 

government agencies to consider disaster preparedness and continuity of

operations as part of their planning. We have had a preliminary discussion 

with the Bureau on this topic and will continue to assess the Bureau’s 

contingency planning as part of our oversight of the 2010 Census. 

Hurricanes Katrina 

and Rita Highlight the 

Importance of 

Disaster Preparedness 

Source: GAO (10/13/2005).

Page 15 GAO-06-465T 
Moreover, it will be important for the Bureau to assess the impact the 

storms might have on its census-taking activities, as well as whether the 

affected areas have any special needs for data. Securing a complete count, 

a difficult task under normal circumstances, could face additional hurdles

along the Gulf Coast, in large part because the baseline the Bureau will be 

working with—streets, housing stock, and the population itself—will be in 

flux for some time to come. According to the Bureau, different parts of the 

agency work on hurricane-related issues at different times, but no formal 

body has been created to deal with the hurricanes’ impact on the 2010 

Census. The Bureau anticipates that by 2008, as it is preparing to conduct

address canvassing, people will have decided whether or not to return. At 

that time, the Bureau believes it will be in a better position to identify 

vacant, occupied, and new construction for 2010.

Although Census Day is still several years away, preliminary activities, 

such as operations for building the Master Address File, are to occur 

sooner. Consequently, a key question is whether the Bureau’s existing 

operations are adequate for capturing the migration that has taken place 

along the Gulf Coast, the various types of dwellings in which people live, 

and the changes to roads and other geographic features that have 

occurred, or does the Bureau need to develop enhanced and/or additional 

procedures to account for them? For example, new housing and street 

construction could require more frequent updates of the Bureau’s address 

file and maps, while local governments’ participation in LUCA might be 

affected because of the loss of key personnel, information systems, or 

records needed to verify the Bureau’s address lists and maps. 

It will also be important for the Bureau to work with Congress and state 

and local governments to determine whether the hurricane-affected areas 

have any special data needs to track the economic and social well-being of

the region and benchmark the recovery process. Although the decennial 

census would not be the instrument to collect this information, it might be

feasible doing so through one of the Bureau’s other survey programs. To 

date, the Bureau plans to do a special tabulation of its American 

Community Survey (ACS) data for the areas affected by Katrina that will 

provide information on the population that remained in the region. 

However, because of several methodological issues, it will not be an 

“official” ACS data product. The Bureau is also trying to use data from 

administrative records to update its population estimates of the area. 

Building on these efforts, some key considerations for the future include 

the following: 

Page 16 GAO-06-465T 
1. How have the hurricanes affected the counties and parishes in the Gulf 

Coast region and what are the implications, if any, for the Bureau’s 

future operations? 

2. Which external and internal stakeholders including federal, state, and

local government agencies, as well as nonprofit organizations and 

specific areas of expertise need to be included in the Bureau’s 

decision-making process? 

3. To what extent does the Bureau have a plan (including objectives, 

tasks, milestones, etc.) for assessing and acting on any new 

requirements imposed by the hurricanes? 

4. Do the hurricane-affected areas have any special data requirements, 

and if so, how should they be addressed and which stakeholders need 

to be involved? 

In summary, over the last few years, the Bureau has put forth a 

tremendous effort to help ensure the success of the 2010 Census. The 

Bureau is moving forward along a number of fronts, and has been 

responsive to the recommendations we made in our past work aimed at 

improving its planning process, address file, MCDs, training, human 

capital, and other census-taking activities. Still, some aspects of the census 

are proving to be problematic and a number of operational questions need 

to be resolved. 

To be sure, challenges are to be expected in an endeavor as vast and 

complex as the decennial census. Moreover, shortcomings with prior 

censuses call for the Bureau to consider bold initiatives for 2010 that entail 

some risk. Thus, in looking toward the future, as the planning and testing 

phases of the 2010 Census begin to wind down, it will be important for 

Congress to monitor the Bureau’s progress in (1) identifying and 

diagnosing problems, (2) devising cost-effective solutions, and (3) 

integrating refinements and fixes in time to be evaluated during the Dress 

Rehearsal in 2008. Indeed, while the ramp-up to 2010 is making progress, 

past experience has shown that Congress has every reason to remain 

vigilant. As we have done throughout the past several decades, we look 

forward to supporting the subcommittee in its decision-making and 

oversight efforts. 

Page 17 GAO-06-465T 
Mr. Chairman, Mr. Clay, this concludes my prepared statement. I would be

pleased to respond to any questions that you or other members of the 

subcommittee might have. 

For further information regarding this testimony, please contact Brenda S. 

Farrell on (202) 512-3604, or by e-mail at farrellb@gao.gov. 

Individuals making contributions to this testimony included Betty Clark, 

Robert Goldenkoff, Carlos E. Hazera, Shirley Hwang, Andrea Levine, Anne 

McDonough-Hughes, Lisa Pearson, Michael Volpe, and Timothy Wexler.

Page 18 GAO-06-465T 

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