Special Commentary:

Recruiting in a Post-COVID-19 World

May 11, 2020 | COL Matt Lawrence

The COVID-19 pandemic is going to change military recruiting. Recently, the Army and its 

sister forces have been forced to recruit virtually and have slowed processing through basic 

training. The Army has been vague about its recruiting goals, instead focusing on end strength, 

so it will not have to deal with the fanfare of missing its mission as it did in 2018. But the virus 

and its effects will actually help recruiting in the future. There was a storm gathering for 

recruiters, as the number of target youth would decrease in the years 2026-2031—a result of a 

decreased birth rate through the 2008 financial crisis and its fallout. Competition was going to 

be fierce with businesses and higher education.

The virus changed everything.

THE PROBLEM

The 2008 financial crisis caused a decline in birth rates that will manifest itself with a 

reduced number of military-age young adults persisting from 2026 through 2031. Births have 

continued to decline steadily since 2008, posting a slight gain only in 2014. Approximately 

300,000 fewer babies are born today each year as compared to a decade ago—nearly an 8 

percent drop. The decline in high school matriculation from 2025 through 2028 is the most 

significant, where projections by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education 

predict over 250,000 fewer graduates in that three-year period. The number of graduates 

somewhat stabilizes after that point. 

Immigration has the potential to mute the effects of this decline (enlisted soldiers do not 

need to be citizens), but immigration has been curtailed significantly in the past several years. In 

2019, the United States granted permanent residence to 577,000 people, a hefty decline from 

two years earlier when 1.13 million permanent statuses were issued. The COVID-19 pandemic 

then slowed immigration to a trickle. The US Citizenship and Immigration Services have 

reduced their services to emergencies only from March through June to combat the virus. The 

president also weighed in, halting all immigration for sixty days starting in April.
The result is a competition for the resource of talent. There will be less youth to replace 

retiring baby boomers and to occupy seats in colleges and universities. The military, and 

specifically the Army, must also compete for the same pool of recruits.

HIGHER EDUCATION IN CRISIS 

The effects of these trends were a significant worry for long-term planners in recruiting and 

especially for higher education. Colleges across the country are already largely financially 

stressed and dependent on full freshmen enrollment to maintain debt payments and remain 

operating. Colleges, which had already been under attack for the value of education, will be put 

to extreme tests because of COVID-19. A recent survey found that 11 percent of graduating high 

school seniors were altering their college plans due to effects of the pandemic, either for health 

concerns or personal changes in financial situation. Regardless of the reason, such a decline is 

enough to put many financially strapped schools out of business. Public institutions are not 

exempt from these stresses, as states themselves will look to regain control of their finances and 

close underperforming schools.

ELIGIBILITY AND PROPENSITY WILL HOLD STEADY

While there has been a seemingly endless stream of reporters, pundits, and generals

lamenting the decline of America’s youth both in their eligibility for service and their likelihood 

of joining, these fears are largely overblown. Though the percentage of youth ineligible to serve 

is high, it is still an improvement over the decade prior, and long-term trends for most 

disqualifying factors are either level or improving. It is unclear if the COVID-19 pandemic will 

have a positive or negative effect on any of these qualities. As for youth’s likelihood of joining, 

despite the claims of declining interest in service, the long-term trends since 2009 show 

propensity to be steady.

There will be no reason that propensity will change, either. The Army has been an integral 

part of the recovery solution, mobilizing more than forty-five thousand National Guard troops, 

over three thousand Army Reserve soldiers, and assisting cities with temporary hospitals 

courtesy of the US Army Corps of Engineers. Respect for the military will remain constant 

throughout the next several years as long as it retains its apolitical stance in national matters. 

ALL ABOUT THE BENJAMINS—ECONOMY

No one can be completely sure what the future of the American economy will be, but the 

immense amounts of debt the United States and the world have taken on to keep their 

economies afloat will require higher taxes and reductions in spending—and possibly a major 

reshuffling of national priorities. As a result, any economic recovery from coronavirus will take 

time. Until there is a vaccine that is widely available, the changes people have adopted in their 

daily lives are likely to mute any recovery. Adding to the issue is a corporate debt crisis where 
companies crippled by the effects of the pandemic cannot make their bond payments. Already, 

corporations in financial turmoil have filed for bankruptcy and will eliminate jobs—and this is 

just the beginning. 

All combined, this equates to a good number of the thirty million already lost jobs becoming 

permanent losses. While many hope for a quick recovery, the financial stresses on both 

governmental revenues and spending will likely drag on for several years. Many small 

businesses, which often rely on steady cash flow to operate, will just never reopen. Banks were 

already unwilling to lend to small businesses to help them weather the crisis and will be very 

careful in lending money to startups for years to come.

ALL ABOUT THE BENJAMINS—ARMY

The Army will likely face extreme budget cuts because of government financial constraints. 

This may manifest itself in a sequestration-type pullback of funding, or a major restructuring if 

the United States reevaluates its world commitments and national security posture. The 

proposed cuts to Army active end strength under the Obama administration may look minor if 

the latter scenario were to occur. Regardless, since the Army’s personnel footprint and costs are 

the largest of all the services, sharp reductions in end strength of all three components should be 

expected. Budgetary pressures are likely to ensure those reductions are enduring and not subject 

to the political cycle as they normally are.

Army budget line items used in the recruiting process will also face scrutiny and sharp cuts. 

The Army’s use of enlistment bonuses, traditionally the most generous of the armed forces, will 

likely be slashed significantly. The Army’s marketing budget, which had grown significantly, will 

be slashed as well, forcing the new Army Marketing Enterprise Office to reevaluate its strategy 

and lines of effort. Other popular programs such as tuition assistance and student loan 

repayment will face cuts and likely receive program limits, effectively negating them as a benefit 

promise recruiters can use. Also at risk are the National Guard state tuition assistance

programs, which will be at risk for cuts or caps as states look to balance their budgets to recover 

financially.

EFFECTS ON RECRUITING

The sharp cuts in personnel will enable future Army recruiting and end strength success. 

The Army has shown that its yearly capacity for recruits is somewhere around sixty-eight 

thousand. Thanks to COVID-19, the population dip will not be the threat it was expected to be. 

Now, the next ten years likely present a far more favorable competitive environment for Army 

recruiting as higher education flounders and the private sector slowly recovers. While the depth 

of any manpower cuts will ultimately dictate how much lower yearly recruiting targets can go, 

recruiting requirements may dip lower than its 2014 nadir of fifty-seven thousand recruits

during the drawdown from the Iraq War surge.
The Army’s challenge has not been getting enough people to join as conventional wisdom 

contends. The challenge was getting the right people to join. The Army requires smarter-thanaverage recruits to operate its complex equipment and to understand its operating concepts. 

There will be some economic desperation for some of the US population, but that is not a 

primary reason for joining the military today and will not be in the next ten years. A poor 

economy and a languid recovery, however, will push many “fence-sitters” who may have not 

joined in better times to investigate service more thoroughly and consider the opportunities it 

presents.

A smaller military will reduce competition between the services for recruits, and will drive 

some who might have served in other forces to consider Army service as an alternative. As the 

Army declines in size, it will also enable the reserve components to keep their troop levels high 

with more experienced soldiers leaving the active force, alleviating the pressure on them to 

maintain historically high retention rates.

BUT ROTC WILL BE HURT

The potential loser here will be the Army’s officer corps. While West Point will remain 

largely unaffected, it is not the top producer of officers. The Reserve Officer Training Corps 

(ROTC) is the largest source of commissioning for the Army. The Army’s third source for 

officers, Officer Candidate School, will also contract, largely due to the overall troop reductions 

and the contraction of college benefits. The ROTC commissioning mission will undoubtedly be 

cut, and the program’s ability to meet even those targets remains in question because of a 

combination of factors.

Fewer colleges and college students will mean a smaller pool of ROTC applicants. In 

addition, Generation Z already has serious doubts about the value of a four-year degree. This has 

given life to the trend toward career technical education, which diverts students from colleges to 

career-building, non-degree programs. Expect career technical education programs will grow in 

the aftermath of the pandemic as smart but cash-strapped youth look to enter the workforce 

faster than the traditional college model allows. ROTC scholarships will be slashed dramatically 

along with the rest of the Army’s educational benefits, forcing the Army to rely evermore on its 

simultaneous membership and Green to Gold programs. Cadet Command will be forced to 

shrink, reducing its cadre at some existing programs (which are already at critically low levels) 

and closing some of its lower performing ones—a politically difficult feat in the past.

Because ROTC has a four-year generation cycle (or at best two years with interested 

sophomores), the program will overproduce for the next couple of years as the Army slashes end 

strength quicker than Cadet Command can respond. The worst-case scenario would be a 

relatively quick economic recovery and political changes that attempt to regrow the Army. 

Smaller freshman classes in 2023-2026 would be difficult to expand to meet higher 

commissioning demands for 2027-2030 with all of the aforementioned factors.
CONCLUSION

The future will require the Army to operate efficiently in its marketing and recruiting efforts 

to get the right people in its ranks, regardless of the future size of the force. The COVID-19 

pandemic and its numerous effects on the economy may alleviate the challenge posed by a 

declining target population, but many challenges remain. The Army should continue to be 

creative with its policies to attract Gen Z, and consider non-traditional terms of service such as 

dual status enlistments that enable movement between the active and reserve components. The 

Army should revisit its service policies on special recruiting populations such as medical and 

cyber professionals to ensure that it gets the needed talent without placing unnecessary barriers 

to service in their path. And finally, the Army should also carefully consider what level of 

educational benefits it needs to attract the right people and ensure that those are preserved 

instead of harvested for cheap financial savings.

The future will be tough for the entire country. Perhaps, finally, the pandemic will be the 

catalyst for America to discuss what government it truly needs and what costs it is willing to 

bear for it. The Army will continue to be the centerpiece of our homeland security and our global 

influence, and will need to work hard to ensure it attracts the right people to remain up to the 

task.

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The views expressed in this Special Commentary piece are those of the author and do not 

necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department 

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