AEO2013 Early Release

Base Overnight Project Technological Total Overnight Variable Fixed Heatrate6

nth-of-akind

Online Size Lead time Cost in 2012 Contingency Optimism Cost in 20124 O&M5 O&M in 2012 Heatrate

Technology Year1 (MW) (years) (2011 $/kW) Factor2 Factor3 (2011 $/kW) (2011 $/MWh) (2011$/kW) (Btu/kWh) (Btu/kWh)

Scrubbed Coal New7 2016 1300 4 2,694 1.07 1.00 2,883 4.39 30.64 8,800 8,740 

Integrated Coal-Gasification 

Comb Cycle (IGCC)7 2016 1200 4 3,475 1.07 1.00 3,718 7.09 50.49 8,700 7,450 

Pulverized Coal with carbon 

sequestration 2017 650 4 4,662 1.07 1.03 5,138 4.37 65.31 12,000 9,316 

Conv Gas/Oil Comb Cycle 2015 620 3 858 1.05 1.00 901 3.54 12.94 7,050 6,800 

Adv Gas/Oil Comb Cycle 

(CC) 2015 400 3 931 1.08 1.00 1,006 3.21 15.10 6,430 6,333 

Adv CC with carbon 

sequestration 2017 340 3 1,833 1.08 1.04 2,059 6.66 31.23 7,525 7,493 

Conv Comb Turbine8 2014 85 2 910 1.05 1.00 956 15.18 7.21 10,850 10,450 

Adv Comb Turbine 2014 210 2 632 1.05 1.00 664 10.19 6.92 9,750 8,550 

Fuel Cells 2015 10 3 6,045 1.05 1.10 6,982 0.00 357.47 9,500 6,960 

Adv Nuclear 2018 2236 6 4,700 1.10 1.05 5,429 2.10 91.65 10,452 10,452 

Distributed Generation - 

Base 2015 2 3 1,395 1.05 1.00 1,465 7.62 17.14 9,038 8,900 

Distributed Generation - 

Peak 2015 1 2 1,675 1.05 1.00 1,759 7.62 17.14 10,042 9,880 

Biomass 2016 50 4 3,685 1.07 1.02 4,041 5.17 103.79 13,500 13,500 

Geothermal7,9 2013 50 4 2,444 1.05 1.00 2,567 0.00 110.94 9,756 9,756 

MSW - Landfill Gas 2013 50 3 7,858 1.07 1.00 8,408 8.51 381.74 13,648 13,648 

Conventional Hydropower9 2016 500 4 2,179 1.10 1.00 2,397 2.60 14.57 9,756 9,756 

Wind 2013 100 3 2,032 1.07 1.00 2,175 0.00 38.86 9,756 9,756 

Wind Offshore 2016 400 4 4,452 1.10 1.25 6,121 0.00 72.71 9,756 9,756 

Solar Thermal7 2015 100 3 4,653 1.07 1.00 4,979 0.00 66.09 9,756 9,756 

Photovoltaic7,10 2014 150 2 3,624 1.05 1.00 3,805 0.00 21.37 9,756 9,756 

3

The technological optimism factor is applied to the first four units of a new, unproven design, it reflects the demonstrated tendency to underestimate actual costs for a first-of-a-kind unit.

DRAFT

(Final version will be included in the Electricity Market Module Assumptions Document)

Table 8.2 Cost and Performance Characteristics of New Central Station Electricity Generating Technologies

1

Online year represents the first year that a new unit could be completed, given an order date of 2012. For wind, geothermal and landfill gas, the online year was moved earlier to acknowledge the 

significant market activity already occuring in anticipation of the expiration of the Production Tax Credit.

2

A contingency allowance is defined by the American Association of Cost Engineers as the “specific provision for unforeseeable elements of costs within a defined project scope; particularly important 

where previous experience has shown that unforeseeable events which will increase costs are likely to occur”

10Costs and capacities are expressed in terms of net AC power available to the grid for the installed capacity.

Sources: For the AEO2013, EIA updated cost estimates for utility-scale electric generating plants, based on a draft report provided by external consultants. This report will be provided on the EIA 

website when finalized. Site specific costs for geothermal were provided by the National Energy Renewable Laboratory, "Updated U.S. Geothermal Supply Curve", February 2010.

4

Overnight capital cost including contingency factors, excluding regional multipliers and learning effects. Interest charges are also excluded. These represent costs of new projects initiated in 2012.

5

O&M = Operations and maintenance.

6

For hydro, wind, solar and geothermal technologies, the heatrate shown represents the average heatrate for conventional thermal generation as of 2011. This is used for purposes of calculating 

primary energy consumption displaced for these resources, and does not imply an estimate of their actual energy conversion efficiency.

7

Capital costs are shown before investment tax credits are applied.

8

Combustion turbine units can be built by the model prior to 2014 if necessary to meet a given region's reserve margin.

9

Because geothermal and hydro cost and performance characteristics are specific for each site, the table entries represent the cost of the least expensive plant that could be built in the Northwest 

Power Pool region, where most of the proposed sites are located.