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NISTIR 85-3273-10

(Rev. 10/95)

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 1996

Annual Supplement to Stephen R. Petersen

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

100

.056 October 1995

NO. 85-3273

-10

1995

NISTIR 85-3273-10

ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1996

Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cyele Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A;

;uid for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New

Federal Residential Buildings, Title 10, CFR, Part 435

Stephen R. Petersen Office of Applied Economics

Sponsored by:

Building and Fire Research Laboratory The Federal Energy Management Program

Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899 U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

NIST

United States Department of Commerce

Technology Administration

National Institute of Standards and Technology
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ABSTRACT

This is the 1996 annual edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses of energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects. It supports the federal life-cycle

costing methodology by updating the energy price projections and discount factors that are described,

explained, and illustrated in NIST Handbook 135 (HB 135). It supports private-sector life-cycle cost

analysis by updating the energy price indices that are described, explained, and illustrated in NBS Special

Publication 709 (SP 709). It also supports the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435) by providing a table of factors for updating appliance

label values.
PREFACE

This is the 1996 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for use with the Federal Energy

Management Program’s procedures for life-cycle cost analysis, as established by the U.S.

Department of Energy (DOE) in Subpart A of Part 436 of Title 10 of the Code of Federal

Regulations (10 CFR Part 436, Subpart A), and amplified in the Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the

Federal Energy Management Program (NIST Handbook 135). These indices and factors are provided

as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of potential energy and water conservation and

renewable energy investments in existing and new federally owned and leased buildings.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures as set forth in 10 CFR, Part 436, Subpart A, are to be followed by all federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, in evaluating the cost effectiveness

of potential energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in federally owned and

leased buildings.

As called for by legislation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided

technical assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life- cycle costing methods and procedures. This is the second of a three-volume set which together

provide the methods, data, and computational tools for life-cycle cost analysis of federal energy

projects.

Included in the three-volume set for federal life-cycle cost analysis are tlie following:

(1) Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the Federal Energy Management Program, National Institute

of Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (1995).

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysis

as they are applied to federal decisions, especially those subject to DOE 10 CFR 436 rules related

to the economic analysis of energy and water conservation projects and renewable resource projects.

It describes the required procedures and assumptions, defines and explains how to apply and interpret

economic performance measures, gives examples of federal decision problems and their solutions,

explains how to use the energy price indices and discount factors which are updated annually in the

supplement, and provides worksheets and other computational aids and instructions for calculating

the required measures. The 1995 edition of Handbook 135 is a complete revision of tlie 1987 edition,

with updated information on the FEMP LCC requirements of 10 CFR 436.

(2) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, National Institute

of Standards and Technology, NISTIR 85-3273 (updated annually).

This report, which is updated annually, provides the current DOE discount rate, projected energy

price indices, and corresponding discount factors needed to estimate the present value of future

energy and non-energy project-related costs. The energy price indices were provided by the Energy

Information Administration of tlie U.S. Department of Energy. Request the latest edition when

ordering. (This is tlie report tliat you are holding in your hands.)

IV
(3) NIST "Building Life Cycle Cost" (BLCC) Computer Program, National Institute of Standards

and Technology, NISTIR 4481 (User’s Guide dated January 1995). Use version 4.3-96 for

FY 96.

The NIST Building Life-Cycle Cost program provides comprehensive economic analysis capabilities

for the evaluation of proposed capital investments that are expected to reduce the long-term operating

costs of buildings and building systems. The BLCC program is designed to run on IBM PC and

compatible microcomputers in a MS-DOS environment. The BLCC program computes the LCC for

project alternative, compares project alternatives in order to determine which has the lowest LCC,

performs cash flow analyses, and computes net savings, the savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and

adjusted internal rate of return (AIRR) for project alternatives over their designated study period.

BLCC can be used to perform economic analysis of capital investment projects undertaken by

federal, state, and local government agencies, as well as by the private sector. BLCC (version 4.3-

96) uses the 1996 energy price data in NISTIR 85-3273-10. In its application to federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects, BLCC is consistent with NIST Handbook 135 (see #1

above). In its application to non-energy projects, BLCC is consistent with 0MB Circular A-94. In

its application to private-sector and non-federal public-sector projects, BLCC is consistent with

ASTM standards for building economics.

Included on the BLCC disk is BLCC Quick Input, a simplified version of BLCC which can be used

to set up an analysis of multiple project alternatives. Also included is the DISCOUNT program

(version 3.5-96), which can calculate present value, future value, and annual value factors for any

discount rate and study period. DISCOUNT can access the DOE energy price projections included on the BLCC disk to compute the UPV* factors needed for federal LCC analyses of energy projects,

consistent with the factors included in this report.

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available

to the private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for federal use. In response

to this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship of the U.S.

Department of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector entitled

Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy Decisions, NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The private

sector guide is supported by the data provided here, as well as by the BLCC computer program. The

BLCC program supersedes the NBSLCC program which is documented in SP 709. BLCC provides

LCC computational support for private sector projects as well as for federal projects.

To order any of the printed publications contact:

Advanced Sciences, Inc. 1525 Wilson Blvd, Suite 1200

Arlington, VA 22209-9998

(703) 243-4900, fax (703) 524-6237

Please request the publications by name and number.

Federal agencies and contractors can order BLCC from Advanced Sciences, Inc. Other users may

order BLCC from one of the following vendors:

V
FlowSoft

5 Oak Forest Court

Saint Charles, MO 63303

(314) 441-1022

Energy Information Services

P.O. Box 381

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819-0381

(802) 748-5148

Workshops on the life-cycle costing method and energy analysis are conducted at locations around

the country each year. The workshops include training and software for both BLCC and an energy

analysis computer program called "A Simplified Energy Analysis Method" (ASEAM). A schedule

of workshops can be obtained from the Office of Applied Economics, National Institute of Standards

and Technology, Building 226, Room B226, Gaithersburg, MD 20899, Telephone (301) 975-6132,

fax (301) 208-9136.

Three video training films in a series entitled "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings" have been

prepared by NIST. These films include "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing", "Uncertainty and

Risk," and "Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods." The video films and companion workbooks

can be ordered from Video Transfer, Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD 20852,

Telephone (301) 881-0270, fax (301) 770-9131.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained from the Federal

Energy Management Program Staff, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and

Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. Please direct communication to: FEMP, CE 10.1,

U.S. Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585.

VI
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to thank Mr. K. Dean DeVine of the Federal Energy Management Program of

the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for his continued support and direction of this work.

Appreciation is extended to Mr. Art Andersen, Director of the Energy Demand and Integration

Division, and Susan Shaw, Chief, and Paul Condis of the National Energy Modeling System Branch,

DOE Energy Information Administration, for providing the energy price projections upon which this report is based, and to Ms. Hilla Katki and Mrs. Laurene Linsenmayer for their assistance in

preparing this report for publication.
CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT iii

PREFACE iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii

LIST OF TABLES ix

ABBREVIATIONS xii

INTRODUCTION 1

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 3

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs 3

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs 11 B.l. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 14

B.2. 0MB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 20

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real) 26

D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values 43

PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS 44

viii
LIST OF TABLES

Page

A- 1 . SPV factors for finding the present value of future single costs (non-fuel) 6

A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of future annually recurring uniform costs

(non-fuel) 7

A-3a UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, DOE discount rate (4.1%) 8

A-3b UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, 0MB short-term discount rate (4.6%) 9

A-3c UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, 0MB long-term discount rate (4.9%) 10

Ba-1. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode

Island, Vermont) 15

Ba-2. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South

Dakota, Wisconsin) 16

Ba-3. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) 17

Ba-4. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona,

California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,

Washington, Wyoming) 18

Ba-5. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.1% (DOE). United States average 19

Bb-1. 0MB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.6% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 11-30), (0MB

Circular A-94). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New

Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) ... 21

IX
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Bb-2. 0MB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.6% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 11-30), (0MB

Circular A-94). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) . 22

Bb-3. 0MB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.6% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 11-30), (0MB

Circular A-94). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of

Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North

Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 23

Bb-4. 0MB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.6% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 11-30), (0MB

Circular A-94). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii,

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) . 24

Bb-5. 0MB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 4.6% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 11-30), (0MB

Circular A-94). United States average 25

Ca-1. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel

type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New

Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 28

Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel

type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 30

Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel

type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia,

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 32

Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho,

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 34

Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 36

Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by

end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts,

New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 38

X
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by

end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,

Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 39

Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by

end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware,

District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) 40

Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by

end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,

Washington, Wyoming) 41

Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by

end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 42

D. Factors for updating appliance label values from 1987 to 1995 dollars 43

S-1. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode

Island, Vermont) 46

S-2. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 48

S-3. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) 50

S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and

6 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona,

California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,

Washington, Wyoming) 52

S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5. and

6 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 54

XI
ABBREVIATIONS

A Annual amount

Ao Annual amount at base-date prices

AE095 Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (DOE-EIA publication)

ASTM American Society for Testing and Materials

BLCC NIST Building Life Cycle Cost computer program

COAL Steam Coal

d discount rate DIST Distillate Oil

DOE U.S. Department of Energy

e price escalation rate (annual rate of price change)

EIA Energy Information Administration (DOE)

ELEC Electricity

FEME Federal Energy Management Program

FY Fiscal Year

GASLN - Gasoline

LCC Life-Cycle Cost

LPG Liquefied petroleum gas

N Number of discount periods (in years)

NEMS National Energy Modeling System

NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology

NTGAS Natural Gas

0MB Office of Management and Budget

RESID Residual Oil

SPV Single Present Value (factor)

UPV Uniform Present Value (factor)

UPV* Modified Uniform Present Value (factor)

XII
INTRODUCTION

This report provides tables of present-value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital

investment projects for federal facilities. It also provides energy price indices based on Department

of Energy (DOE) forecasts through the year 2025. The factors and indices presented in this report

are useful for determining the present value of future project-related costs, especially those related

to operational energy costs. Discount factors included in this report are based on two different federal

discount rates: (1) the DOE discount rate for projects related to energy conservation, renewable

energy resources, and water conservation; and (2) Office of Management and Budget (0MB)

discount rates from Circular A-94 for use with most other capital investment projects undertaken by

the federal government.

The DOE discount rate for 1996 is 4. 1 % real (i.e., net of general price inflation) or 7.6% nominal

(including inflation). The DOE discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged

over the previous 12 months. The nominal, or market rate, is converted to a real rate using the

projected rate of general price inflation (3.4%) from the Economic Report of the President’s Council

of Economic Advisors, to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach that is used in most

federal life-cycle cost (LCC) analyses. Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are required by 10 CFR 436 to use the DOE discount rate when conducting LCC analyses related to energy conservation, renewable energy resources, and water conservation projects for federal

facilities. 0MB Circular A-94 on guidelines and discount rates for benefit-cost analysis of federal programs was extensively revised in October 1992. There is no longer a single 0MB discount rate as in the

past. 0MB has specified two basic types of discount rates: (1) a discount rate for cost-effectiveness,

lease-purchase, and related analyses; and (2) a discount rate for public investment and regulatory

analyses. Only discount rates for the first type of analyses are included in this Annual Supplement,

since the primary purpose of this report is to support cost-effectiveness studies related to the design

and operation of federal facilities. 0MB discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on

Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years. Currently (as of January

1995) five maturities have been specifically identified by 0MB, and are shown here with the

corresponding real interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to 0MB Circular

A-94:

Maturity: 3-vear 5-vear 7-vear 10-vear 30-vear

Rate: 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 4.9%

0MB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from tliese maturities and rates, based on the study period used in the analysis. Due to limitations on the size

of this Annual Supplement, discount factors for only two of these maturities are presented: factors

for short-term analyses (up to 10 years) based on the 7-year real rate (4.6%), and factors for longterm analyses (longer than 10 years) based on the 30-year real rate (4.9%). Updated discount rates from 0MB will most likely be made available in January or February 1996, at which time die tables

1
in this report based on the 0MB discount rates will be out of date. As a result, these discount factors are for approximation purposes only. It is suggested that the NIST Building Life Cycle Cost (BLCC)

or DISCOUNT programs be used to compute the present value factors for the discount rate corresponding to the length of the study period when approximate values are not satisfactory for the

project analysis or new 0MB discount rates become available. (See preface for details on obtaining

these programs.)

The energy price indices and corresponding present value factors published in this report are computed from energy price forecasts provided to NIST by the Department of Energy’s Energy

Information Administration (ElA). The ElA energy price forecast used in this report was the most

recent available at the time that this report was prepared (summer, 1995). ElA forecasts for 1996

are not expected to be released until well after the required publication date (October 1, 1995) for

this report. A description of the methodology used by EIA to project energy prices through 2025 is included in section B of this report.

Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are required by 10 CFR 436 to use the DOE

energy price forecasts when conducting LCC analyses related to energy conservation, renewable

energy resources, and water conservation, unless they have price projections from the local utility.

The modified uniform present value (UPV*) factors for energy costs presented in this report have

been precalculated with the DOE forecast data. Thus the use of these UPV* factors automatically ensures that the appropriate forecast data have been included in the analysis. If the analyst is using

energy price forecast data other than DOE data, present value computations can be made using the

NIST BLCC or DISCOUNT computer programs.

All of the tables of discount factors contained in this report are based on real discount rates and are

therefore intended for use only with economic analyses conducted in constant dollars (in which the

purchasing power of the dollar is held constant). The energy price escalation rates and corresponding

energy price indices contained in this report are also expressed in real terms.

This report uses the term "present value" instead of "present worth" for the discount factors

presented. The meaning of these two terms is considered to be identical for purposes of economic

analysis. This change in terminology was made to be consistent with the terms used in the American

Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) compilation of standards on building economics {ASTM

Standards on Building Economics, Third Edition, ASTM, Philadelphia, PA, 1994.)

2
PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST

ANALYSIS

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs

Table A-1 presents the single present value (SPV) factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel, non-annually recurring costs, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values. The

formula for finding the present value (P) of a future cost (F) is the following:

P = F X ^ = F X SPV^ , (1 + d)^

where d = discount rate, and

N = number of periods, such as years, until F occurs.

Table A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV) factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel costs recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the present

value (P) of an annually recurring uniform cost (A) is the following:

P A X

d(l + d)^

= A X UPV^ ,

where d = discount rate, and

N = number of periods, such as years, over which A recurs.

Tables A-3(a.b.c) present modified uniform present value (UPV*) factors for finding the present

value of annually recurring non-fuel costs, such as water costs, which are expected to change from

year to year at a constant rate of change (or escalation rate) over the study period. The escalation

rate can be positive or negative. The formula for finding the present value (P) of an armually

recurring cost at base-date prices (Aq) changing at escalation rate e is the following:

P = A^x

or

(\+e^

\d^e,

1 + eY

r I + d.

= Ao X UPV*, (d not= e)

P = AqX N = AqX UPV*, (d = e).

where Aq = annually recurring cost at base-date prices,

d = discount rate, e = escalation rate, and

N = number of periods, such as years, over which A recurs.

Note: if the discount rate is expressed in real terms, i.e., net of general inflation, then the escalation

rate must also be expressed in real terms. If the discount rate is expressed in nominal terms, i.e.,

including general inflation, then the escalation rate must also be expressed in nominal terms.

3
In tables A-1, A-2, and A-3(a,b,c) SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors are provided for both the DOE

and the 0MB Circular A-94 real discount rates current as of the date of this publication. The FEMP

SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors were computed using the DOE discount rate. The FEMP factors are

for finding the present value of fumre costs associated with federal energy and water conservation

projects and renewable energy projects. The 0MB SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors were computed

using the 0MB discount rate. The 0MB factors are for finding the present value of future costs associated with most other federal projects (except those specifically exempted from 0MB Circular

A-94). The DOE and 0MB discount rates used in computing these tables are real rates, exclusive

of general price inflation. Thus the resulting discount factors are intended for use with future costs

that are stated in constant dollars.

Examples of How to Use the Factors:

SPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year

for an energy efficient heating system, go to Table A-1, find the 4.1% SPV factor for year 8

(0.725), and multiply the factor by the replacement cost as of the base date.

SPV (0MB, Short-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-1, find the 4.6% SPV factor for year 5 (0.799), and

multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date.

SPV (0MB, Long-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-1, find the 4.9% SPV factor for year 15 (0.488), and

multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date. UPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a renewable energy system over 20 years, go to Table A-2, find the 4.1% UPV factor for 20 years

(13.47), and multiply the factor by the annual maintenance cost as of the base date.

UPV (0MB, Short-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office

cleaning over 10 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table A-2,

find the 4.6% UPV factor for 10 years (7.87), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost

as of the base date.

UPV (0MB, Long-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office

cleaning over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), got to Table A-2,

find the 4.9% UPV factor for 25 years (14.24), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost

as of the base date.

UPV* (all): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of water usage which are expected to increase at 2% faster than the rate of general inflation over 25 years, find the UPV*

factor from table A-3 (a,b, or c as appropriate) that corresponds to 2% escalation and a 25 year

study period. From table A-3a (4.1% DOE discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 19.39.

Multiply this factor by the annual water cost as computed at base year prices to determine tlie present

value of these water costs over the entire 25 years.

4
NOTE: UPV factors are generally applied to costs which recur annually in substantially the same

amount. Examples of such costs are routine operating and maintenance costs. UPV* factors are generally applied to costs which recur annually but change from year to year at a constant escalation

rate. Examples of such costs are water usage costs when they increase from year to year. These costs usually occur every year over the service period of the building life. If there is a planning/design/

construction period before the service life begins, during which these annual costs are not incurred,

tlie appropriate UPV (or UPV*) factor for the service period is the difference between the UPV (or

UPV*) factor for the entire study period and the UPV (or UPV*) factor for the planning/design/

construction period. For example, if the planning/design/construction period is 3 years and the

service period is 25 years, for a total study period of 28 years, the corresponding UPV factor (from

Table A-2, DOE 4.1% discount rate) is 16.47 - 2.77 = 13.70.

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

5
Table A-1. SPV factors for finding the present value of

future single costs (non-fuel)

Single Present Value (SPV) Factors

Number of

years from

base date

DOE

Discount rate

4.U

0MB Discount Rates'

Short term‘d Long Te 4.6% 4.9%

0.25 0.990 0.989 0.988

0.50 0.980 0,978 0.976

0.75 0.970 0.967 0.965

1 0.961 0.956 0.953

2 0.923 0.914 0.909

3 0.886 0.874 0.866

4 0.852 0.835 0.826

5 0.818 0.799 0.787

6 0.786 0.764 0.750

7 0.755 0.730 0.715

8 0.725 0.698 0.682

9 0.697 0.667 0.650

10 0.669 0.638 0.620

11 0.643 0.591

12 0.617 0.563

13 0.593 0.537

14 0.570 0.512

15 0.547 0.488

16 0.526 0.465

17 0.505 0.443

18 0.485 0.423

19 0.466 0.403

20 0.448 0.384

21 0.430 0.366

22 0.413 0.349

23 0.397 0.333

24 0.381 0.317

25 0.366 0.302

26 0.352 0.288

27 0.338 0.275

28 0.325 0.262

29 0.312 0.250

30 0.300 0.238

• discount rates as of January 1995. 0MB rates are expected t revised in January 1996.

Short-term discount rate based on 0MB discount rate for 7-year study period.

Long-term discount rate based on 0MB discount rate for 30-year study period.

6
Table A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of

future annually recurring uniform costs (non-fuel)

Uniform Present Value (UPV) Factors

Number of DOE 0MB Discount Rates^

years from Discount rate Short term Long Term'

base date 4.n 4.6% 4.9%

1 0.96 0.96 0.95

2 1.88 1.87 1.86

3 2.77 2.74 2.73

4 3.62 3.58 3.55

5 4.44 4.38 4.34

6 5.23 5.14 5.09

7 5.98 5.87 5.81

8 6.71 6.57 6.49

9 7.40 7.24 7.14

10 8.07 7.87 7.76

11 8.71 8.35

12 9.33 8.91

13 9.92 9.45

14 10.49 9.96

15 11.04 10.45

16 11.57 10.92

17 12.07 11.36

18 12.56 11.78

19 13.02 12.18

20 13.47 12.57

21 13.90 12.93

22 14.31 13.28

23 14.71 13.62

24 15.09 13.93

25 15.46 14.24

26 15.81 14.52

27 16.15 14.80

28 16.47 15.06

29 16.78 15.31

30 17.08 15.55

“ 0MB discount rates as of January 1995 . 0MB rates are expected to be

revised in January 1996.

Short-term discount rate based on 0MB discount rate for 7-year study period.

Long-term discount rate based on 0MB discount rate for 30-year study period.

7
Table

A-3a.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

costs

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate,

DOE

discount

rate

(4.1%).

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8
Table

A-3b.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

costs

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate,

OMB

short-term

discount

rate

(4.6%^).

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o

1/3

1-1 4—o

»

o

03

IX, *>

CLh D

<u >

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<u

c/3 <u

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T3

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9
Table

A-3c.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

costs

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate,

OMB

long-term

discount

rate

(4.9%“).

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10

^

OMB

discount

rate

as

of

January

1995.

OMB

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

January

1996.

Long-term

discount

rate

based

on

OMB

discount

rate

for

30-year

study

period.
B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs

This section presents FEMP and 0MB modified uniform present value (UPV*) discount factors for

calculating the present value of energy usage for federal projects. Factors are provided for the four

major Census regions and for the overall United States. The factors are modified in the sense that

they incorporate energy price escalation rates based on future energy prices projected by DOE for

tlte years 1996-2025. There are two sets of UPV* tables: the "Ba" tables present FEMP UPV*

factors based on the DOE discount rate (4.1% real), and the "Bb" tables present 0MB UPV* factors

based on two 0MB discount rates (4.6% real for short-term study periods of 1 to 10 years, 4.9%

real for long-term study periods of 1 1 to 30 years). The underlying energy price indices for the years

1996 to 2025 on which these UPV* calculations are based are shown in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.

The corresponding average energy price escalation rates for the six five-year periods between 1996

and 2025 are shown in tables Cb-1 through Cb-5.

Energy Price Projections

The FEMP and 0MB UPV* factors incorporate energy price escalation rates computed from future

energy prices projected by the Energy Information Administration (ElA) of the U.S. Department of

Energy. Energy prices through 2010 were generated by ElA using the National Energy Modeling

System (NEMS) and published in the Annual Energy Outlook 1995^ (AE095) at the national level

and in the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1995^ for the nine major Census regions. The

four regional sets of energy price data used in this report were derived by EIA from the nine Census

divisions.

NEMS is an energy market model designed to project the impacts of alternative energy policies or assumptions on U.S. energy markets. NEMS produces projections of the U.S. energy future, given

current laws and policies and other key assumptions, including macroeconomic indicators from Data

Resources, Inc., the production policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the

size of the economically recoverable resource base for fossil fuels, and the rate of development and

penetration of new technologies. NEMS balances energy supply and demands with modules

representing primary fuel supply, end-use demand for four sectors, and conversion of energy by

refineries and electricity generators. Macroeconomic and international oil modules reflect the impacts

of energy prices, production, and consumption on world oil markets and the economy.

In order to produce price projections to 2030, EIA extrapolated the prices from the AE095 with

specific assumptions about long-term trends. To provide long-term price expectations to the post2010 projections, world oil price expectations through 2050 were calculated using assumptions of

world oil supply and demand. These expectations were used as the basis for the 2030 projections of

petroleum product prices, using the implied 2010 refinery markups to calculate the regional, end-use

prices.

The EIA energy price projections presented in this report, like those of other forecasters, arc dependent on the data, methodologies, and specific assumptions used in their development. Many

’ Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1995, DOE/EPA-0383(95), Januar>- 1995.

^ Energy Information Administration, Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1995, DOE/EPA-O554i95).

February 1995.
of the assumptions concerning the future cannot be known with any degree of certainty. Thus, the

projections are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the particular

assumptions and methodologies used. Although ElA has endeavored to make these forecasts as objective, reliable, and useful as possible, these projections should serve as an adjunct to, not a

substitute for, the analytical process. The AE095 was prepared by EIA as required under statute by

federal legislation. The price projections to 2030 were prepared in accordance with a Service Request

from the Federal Energy Management Program.

UPV* Calculation Method

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

N

P - A xT ^ A X UPV\

where A„

tN

1(1995 + 0

d

base-date dollar cost of energy, i.e., the annual quantity of energy times its price

in base-date dollars;

counter used to designate each year, with t=l for the year 1996;

number of periods, e.g. years, over which energy costs or savings accrue;

projected average fuel price index^ given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

for the year 1995 -l-t (where 1,995 1-00); and

the discount rate.

This formula is based on end-of-year energy prices and end-of-year discounting. Note that annual

energy costs as of the base date (Aq) should reflect the energy price schedule in effect at the base

date, not the energy price itself on that date. That is, the annual energy cost should reflect summerwinter rate differences, time-of-use rates, block rates considerations, and demand charges (as

appropriate) anticipated to be in effect that year. If energy and demand costs are calculated separately

(as is sometimes done for electricity), the UPV* factor should be applied to both costs.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the four Census regions and tlie U.S. average.

Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of tlie Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

^ For greater precision, the UPV* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using the unrounded

form of the indices given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.

12
WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

(Region

4)

(Region

2)

(Region

1)

13
B.l. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value (FEMP UPV*) factors presented in the "Ba" tables,

based on the current DOE discount rate (4.1%), are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects. Factors are reported in the "Ba" tables for 30 years to accommodate a planning/design/construction period of up to 5 years. (See "Examples of How to Use

FEMP UPV* Factors" below for instructions on use with planning/design/construction periods.)

These factors apply only to annual energy usage or energy savings that are assumed to be the same

each year over the service period. The NIST BLCC computer program can compute the present

value of energy usage and savings which are not the same in each year.

Examples of How to Use the FEMP UPV* Factors:

FEMP UPV*, no planning/design/construction period: To compute the present value of heating with

natural gas over 25 years in a federal office building in New Mexico, go to Table Ba-4, find the

FEMP UPV* factor for commercial natural gas for 25 years (18.08), and multiply this factor by tlie annual heating cost at base-date natural gas prices.

FEMP UPV*, with planning/design/construction period: To compute a present value factor for a service period following a planning/design/construction period (1) find the FEMP UPV* factor for

the combined length of the planning/design/construction period and the service period (not to exceed

30 years), and (2) subtract from (1) the FEMP UPV* factor for the planning/design/construction

period alone. The difference is the FEMP UPV* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings actually accrue. For example, suppose a new federal office building in New York is being

evaluated with several energy conserving design options. It is expected to have a planning/design/

construction period of 5 years, after which it will be occupied for at least 25 years. To compute the

present value of natural gas costs over 25 years of occupancy, go to Table Ba-1 and find the FEMP

UPV* factors for commercial natural gas for 5 years (4.46) and for 30 years (19.57). The difference

(15.11) is the FEMP UPV* factor for natural gas costs over 25 years, beginning 5 years after tlie base date. Multiply 15.11 by the annual natural gas cost at base-date prices to calculate the present

value of natural gas costs over the entire service period.

14
Discount

rate

=

4.1

percent

(DOE)

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16

UPV*

factors

are

reported

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years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use.

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o^CTiCr>cr>cocor^r--’sDLncocvjoa^r-*.*LOco«-Hcc)'Oco<or^'=:fQ'X>c\jco^o

OT^c\jco'^LO'X)r^coo^c:>r-HC\jc\jco^LO'X>'^r^coa^a^cz)r-H.-HC\jc\jcO'^

1—H t—H t—H 1—H r-H i—H i—H »—H t—H »—( «—H «—H t—H C\J C\J C\J C\J C\J C\J C\J CNjuor^r^uDi—<LO‘X)‘^'^cD^LO'^«-H<X)CTiQcOLr)a^c\j<xj^cocov£>r^r^LO ooooooo^cor\^LOco.-Ho^f^’^^o^LOc\jcoLOT-Hr^c\jcx)cooococo

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r-H t-H t—I i—H i—H t—H t

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'

17

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.

(See

p. 6

for
Table

Ba-4.

FEMP

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Discount

Rate

=

4.1

percent

(DOE)

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18

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to5

years.

(See

p. 6

for

instructions

on

use.

)
Table

Ba-5.

FEMP

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Discount

Rate

=

4.1

percent

(DOE)

2:

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B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The OMB Modified Uniform Present Value (OMB UPV*) factors presented in the "Bb" tables, based on the current OMB discount rates (4.6% short term and 4.9% long term), are for calculating the

present value of energy costs accruing over 1 to 30 years when conducting a life-cycle cost analysis

of a federal project which is not explicitly related to energy or water conservation or renewable

resources. Factors are reported in the "Bb" tables for 30 years. These factors apply only to annual

energy usage that is assumed to be the same each year over the service period. The NIST BLCC

computer program can compute the present value of energy usage and savings that are not the same

in each year.

Examples of How to Use the OMB UPV* Factors:

OMB UPV* (OMB discount rate): To compute the present value over 30 years of electricity costs associated with the occupancy of a federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not

a specific consideration in the LCC analysis), go to Table Bb-2, find the OMB UPV* factor for

commercial electricity for 30 years (16.09), and multiply this factor by the annual electricity cost in

base-date dollars.

NOTE: Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate) is different

for years 1-10 (4.6%) than for years 11-30 (4.9%), these factors cannot be used with a planning/design/construction period as shown above for the Ba tables (DOE discount rate). Use the

BLCC or DISCOUNT computer program for this purpose. For further explanation of the use of

UPV* factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

20
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1-10)

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(years

11-30),

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as

of

January

1995.

OMB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

January

1996
C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real)

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected fuel price indices for the 4 Census regions and for the

United States. These are factors which, when multiplied by annual energy costs computed at basedate prices, provide estimates of future-year costs in constant base-date dollars. The indices are based on end-of-year energy prices. End-of-year indices are used because the discount factors provided in

this report are based on the end-of-year discounting convention. Constant dollar costs are needed

when discounting is performed with a real discount rate (i.e., one which does not include general

price inflation).

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial steam coal at the end of year 2005 in Connecticut (in constant

1996 dollars), go to Table Ca-1, find the year 2005 index for industrial steam coal (1.00), and

multiply by the price for industrial steam coal in Connecticut at the beginning of 1996.

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage

change compounded annually) for six 5-year periods from 1996 to 2025 for the four Census regions

and for the overall United States. Note that these are real rates exclusive of general price inflation.

Their use results in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in tlie Ca tables so that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to accommodate computer programs (such has BLCC) which require price escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the

indices in tlie Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices

include year-to-year information rather than averages over a number of years.

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates:

To estimate tlie price of residential natural gas at tlie end of 2005 (pos) in Wyoming using the DOE

energy price escalation rates, go to Table Cb-4 and find tlie 1996-2000 and tlie 2001-2005 escalation

rates for residential natural gas (1.8% for 5 years and 1.6% for 5 years, respectively). Enter tliese values and the price of residential distillate in Wyoming at tlie end of 1995 (P95

)‘* into the following

formula. Then solve for tlie 2005 energy price (stated in end-of-year 1995 dollars):

Pos = -P95 ^ (1 +

^i)^' (1 + ^2)^

The price at the end of year 1993 is the same as the price at the beginning of 1994. End-of-year 1993 is used

here to maintain consistent notation.

26
= ^ (1 + 0. 018)5 ^ ^ 0. 016)5

= X 1.1836

where Py = Price at end of year y;

e, = Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal form);

and

k, = Number of years over which escalation rate Cj occurs.

Note that the compounded escalation rate factor (1.1836) corresponds to the fuel price index in

region 4, residential electricity, for the year 2005 in table Ca-4 (1.18).

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

27
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X 1—1 t—c X X I—I C35

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X 1—1 CO CO

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CO 1—I 1—I C35 CO

1—1 I—I 1—I CO 1—I

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X

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34

Transportation

Motor

Gasoline
Census

Region 4

(Alaska,

Arizona,

California,

Colorado,

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a;

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CD CX CD CD) CX CD CD CO >—H

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CD CD LD CD CX LD CD CO CDC

LD CX CO

CX LD CD CO CD

LD CD CD) CO CD

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r—

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r-H i—

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t—H

r-H “ S 1 !”~i CXJ CD CXJ CD cn oo CD CM t-H CZ> OO t-H LD t CD CD r-H rH CZ? O CM r-H CD CD C35 CM CM T-H CZ3 t-H c; u 1 O o 1 cx r-H t“H 1—1 \—1

t-H t—

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rH j—

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T

—1 t—H i—H t—1 t—H t—H

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t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H t—H

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CL

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t-H t—H t-H rH rH t—H •3

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H 1—

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I-H CD r-H r-H i 1 t i \ 1—1 t—H t—H ^D t—H t—H

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(U

J-J r- r— r— -r— 1— nu 1— CD 1— 1— 1 03 1— t_3 5- CD 1 S- C f-t— ro U s- — D 03 D D 1— D 03 o « 1 o CU 4-> r- s_ D J_> -O S- E XU D e Q. i~ 1 4-> TO U -t-> D CD u 4-5 r- D 03 00 LJ 4-> r- Z5 03 00 o 1 U cu LO CD 4-> e cu 00 c/) +-> cu D cu 00 00 -(-) cu CZ -M H 1 CU C/) 1 -I— Q_ CO El— - 1— cu nu 4-u XU 1— 1— CU 03 JD 03 O 1 cn CD LlJ Q -J ^ O LU Q DC Z CO D UJ Q QC a: LO

Ccl CD 1—t

h36
Table

Ca-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Sc5I

so

OS

OS

<U >-O

ex)

'cc

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CQ

1/3 Oo

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0)3

u,

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T5Cw

T3Oou

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u. 0-

lO

C\J

CZ3 C\J

C\J C3

C\J

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C\J CD

C\J

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C\J oCNJ

C\J CD

CNJ

C3

CNJ CD

CNJ

OSOCNJ

CO

CO

CNJ

CO

CNJ

CD

CO

CNJ

LD

CD

CSvJ

CO

CNJ

CO

CO

CNJ

CNJ CO

CNJ

CO

CNJ

C3S <—I CO CO

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OS CO CO CO CO ^ CO CNJ

(OS cjs CNJ r- CO CO CO CNJ

COS (OS CNJ >0

CO CO CO CNJ

cos CO '—i CD

CO CO CO CNJ

COSJ ' r—H LD

CO CO CO CNJ

COS CD CO ^ CO CO CO CNJ

COS CD CO

CO CO CO CNJ

CO 1-n COS CO

CO CO CNJ CNJ

CO ^ cos CNJ CO CO CNJ CNJ

CO CO CO CNJ CO CO CNJ CNJ

CO CNJ >-H CO CO CNJ csj

CO CO r—(

CO CO CNJ CNJ

CO COS CD CO

CO CNJ CSvJ CNJ

CO CO lO

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CO CO CO CD COS .—( (.n CO CO CO

CO CO (.n cos M-D CO CO

CO CD CD cos r—1 LD CO CO

CO (D ID CO CO

I—( ID CO CO O =cf D D ra I D CO

CO

D .-H CNJD I D CO

CO CNJ cos .-H I D D D CO

CO ^ CO

>—I D

DD CO

CO cos CO

1—I ^ D

D (O

cos

D CNJ cos CO D CNJ CO

cos cos

D

D CO D CNJ CO

cos

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D CO D CNJ CO

COS

D

D CO D CNJ CO

COS CNJ I—I D

D CO D CSO CO

COS CO COS

DD CO ^ ^ CNJ CO

D CO ^ D CO D D <—( D COS D D D CO D D 1^ <—I

(D3 C30 »—I »—I CNJ CO D D <—I D COS CO CNJ CD LD — 1—( D D cos CO D D D D CO D D D D D D CO

CO I—^ D 1—I

CNJ COD CO

CO

D ^

r—I D

D CO

CO

DD >—I I—. COS D CNJ COS CO D D CO D D <—( COS CO D D CO D o COS ro

CO

DD CO

D

DD CO ^ D CO D CO 'cr D D o

r-^ CNJ r—( D CO D CO

CO

CD

cos

CNJ

cos CNJ

CO

CNJ

CO

CNJ

CNJ

CNJ DCNJ DCNJ DCNJ

CNJ

CO

CNJ

CNJ

CNJ

CNJ

CNJ

CNJ

cu 1 1 ,

,

CU o 1 •1 1— 1— c c D 1 o o r— o 1— O r- 1 >s 00 >3 •r— CO >, -r— 00 1— (

TO 1 t— -M CD 03 -4-J CU o ro (

-t-J cu o 03 1— -1-' o CO 1 <T3 - 1— +-> CD , -r- +-) CD fO 1 1— -|0 CD <T3 (T3 c/3 CD 1 • 1— U 03 (T3 CO (T3 f— o 03 U no t— o 4_> ro 1 4-> 1— 1— 1— - 1— - 1— 1— 03 t— C_) •r— -(— 1— 03 t— C_> t_ C^

S_ 1 d s_ 1— ro

U

D r— 13 03

d C_ 1— 13 03

O o 1 CD +-! • 1— d S_ -JO T3 d E 4-> 4-i - TD d E CO. S_

+-> 1 -a o -l->

d CU

U +-> •1

—

D fX3 {/)

U -l-> 1— 13 fO (/)O CO 1 • 1— cu 00 CD -M E CU c/3 oo CU 13 cu (/> 00 4-> cu d 4D

dJ 1 00 1— • 1— Q_ 03 E ^ -r- CD 03 +-> TD t ! CD 03 4-> ra o D 1 CD D Q 1 O D CO Q^: 2: cn C D CO 2: D C_ 21 1 CO H37
Table Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general inflation),

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Percentage change compounded annually.

Sector and Fuel

1996

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3

Distillate Oil 2.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5

LPG 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.3

Natural Gas 0.6 1.7 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4

Commercial

Electricity 0.1 0.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Distillate Oil 3.3 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6

Residual Oil 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.0

Natural Gas 0.9 2.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5

Steam Coal -0.6 -0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Industrial

Electricity 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0

Distillate Oil 3.5 1.8 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.6

Residual Oil 3.1 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.4 1.0

Natural Gas 2.4 4.0 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.8

Steam Coal -0.3 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4

38
Table Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general inflation),

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Percentage change compounded annually.

Sector and Fuel

1996

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity 0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Distillate Oil 2.6 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6

LPG 2.3 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.4

Natural Gas 0.7 2.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6

Commercial

Electricity 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Distillate Oil 3.6 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.7

Residual Oil 3.3 2.5 2.4 2.0 1.5 1.1

Natural Gas 0.9 3.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

Steam Coal 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5

Industrial

Electricity 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Distillate Oil 3.3 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7

Residual Oil 3.3 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.1

Natural Gas 2.4 5.1 1.5 0.8 0.8 0.9

Steam Coal 0.2 0.0 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.5

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4

39
Table Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, (excluding general inflation),

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Percentage change compounded annually.

Sector and Fuel

1996

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity 0.0 0.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Distillate Oil 2.3 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5

LPG 1.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3

Natural Gas 0.8 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5

Commercial

Electricity 0.2 0.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Distillate Oil 3.7 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7

Residual Oil 3.1 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.0

Natural Gas 1.2 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.6

Steam Coal 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4

Industrial

Electricity 0.2 0.4 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2

Distillate Oil 3.7 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6

Residual Oil 3.3 2.6 2.4 1.9 1.4 1.1

Natural Gas 2.9 4.3 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

Steam Coal 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4

40
Table Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general inflation),

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii,

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Percentage change compounded annually.

Sector and Fuel

1996

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity 0.5 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6

Distillate Oil 2.5 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5

LPG 1.8 1.6 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.3

Natural Gas -0.1 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Commercial

Electricity 0.6 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.6

Distillate Oil 3.6 1.9 1.7 1.1 0.9 0.7

Residual Oil 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.3 0.9

Natural Gas 0.1 4.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6

Steam Coal 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4

Industrial

Electricity 0.3 1.4 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.3

Distillate Oil 3.4 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.6

Residual Oil 3.1 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.0

Natural Gas 0.7 6.6 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.8

Steam Coal 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 2.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4

41
Table Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general inflation),

by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Percentage change compounded annually.

Sector and Fuel

1996

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1

Distillate Oil 2.5 1.4 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5

LPG 2.0 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.3

Natural Gas 0.6 2.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5

Commercial

Electricity 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1

Distillate Oil 3.4 1.8 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6

Residual Oil 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.0

Natural Gas 0.8 3.0 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6

Steam Coal -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3

Industrial

Electricity 0.3 0.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Distillate Oil 3.5 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7

Residual Oil 3.2 2.5 2.3 1..9 1.5 1.1

Natural Gas 2.4 4.8 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

Steam Coal 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.4

42
D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values

(In Compliance With the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards

for New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435))

Compliance with energy conservation performance standards for new federal residential buildings

requires calculation of a building’s energy costs, including appliance costs. For this purpose, label

values for gas and electric water heaters are given in the federal micro-computer program,

COSTSAFR, as $176 and $406 per year, respectively, in 1987 dollars, and for refrigerator/freezers,

as $61 per year in 1987 dollars. To adjust 1987 prices to 1995 prices, multiply these 1987 label

values by the factors below.

Table D. Factors for updating appliance label values from 1987 to 1995 dollars.

Fuel Factor

Gas 1.14

Electricity 1.16

43
PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE

SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS

This section presents tables of projected nominal (i.e., including inflation) fuel price indices for four

fuels in the residential sector and five fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 1996

through 2025. These price indices are based on the DOE energy price projections, reported in part I-B of this document, used to calculate the FEMP and 0MB UPV* factors for energy costs. These

tables are provided as an update to similar tables originally published in Comprehensive Guide for

Least-Cost Energy Decisions (NBS SP 709).

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates of general price inflation: 3, 4, 5, and 6%. Selection of these rates is intended in no way to suggest

what actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates which are in current dollars,

inclusive of general price inflation. Current dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed

with discount rates which include general price inflation (i.e., nominal or market discount rates).

The indices based on inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6% allow the analyst to perform evaluations

based on the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that changes the purchasing

power of the dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private

investment decisions, primarily because it facilitates the treatment of taxes.

The indices in Tables S-1 through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 through

Ca-5 by means of the following equation:

/j =

/^ X (1 + gf ,

where Is = index found in Tables S-1 through S-5;

Ic = index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5;

g = annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

N = number of periods, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 1994.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

Suppose you wish to estimate the annual cost of natural gas for a house in Maryland in year 2000,

given the annual cost at beginning-of-year 1996 prices, and you expect an annual inflation rate of

3% per year. From table S-3, find the column with residential natural gas indices at an inflation rate of 3%; then locate the index for the year 2000. This index is 1.27. Multiply tlie annual cost at the

beginning-of-year 1996 price to find tlie estimated annual cost at end-of-year 2000 prices.

If this aimual cost in year 2000 prices is to be discounted to present value, you must use a nominal

discount rate tliat includes the same assumption with regard to general price inflation (3% in tliis example). To obtain a present value cost over the entire study period, tlie present value calculations

must be repeated for each year that there are natural gas costs, and the results summed. (UPV*

factors are not given for private sector use because of tlie large number of tables required to cover

potential discount rates that might be used by tlie analyst.) The BLCC computer program can

44
perform LCC analyses using any inflation rate and discount rate, in constant or in current (market)

dollars. The DISCOUNT program, included with BLCC, can compute UPV* factors based on DOE

energy price escalation rates using any inflation rate and discount rate. (See page iv for more

information on these programs.) Of course the private sector analyst may use the UPV* factors

reported in Part I, provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars and the desired discount rate corresponds to the DOE or 0MB discount rates used in Part I.

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B,

Part I.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data

which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data

for guidance.

45
Table

S-1.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

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47
Table

S-2.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

o

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49
Table

S-3.

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fuel

price

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with

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inflation

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I 51
Table

S-4.

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fuel

price

indices

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assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

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by

end-use

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type.

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4-> CO CO CZ5 00 o CO a^ uo o lT) ' CO cNj uo OM-O ' cT' cT' c\j vx> «—« C7^ oo cz> o3&«cDO.—<c\jc\j'^Ln'X5coo^co^ur)'X>r-*.cn'—'C\j'^'X5coc3cOLOcooro'X>o

QC uo ^^^^^^^^^C\,C>gC\JC\lC\jC\lC\lC\JCOCOCOCOCO^^^^LOLOLO'X5 co

•I— covX)0'X>c\jc\jcor^ocsjcovx5Lnoa>C3«—'C\j^r>-.cz)^cococriLr)co»—'C3CD 4-i^oot—I—icvjco'sd'unr^coo^cz?*—'C\jcsj^LO'X)r^cocz5-—ic\j*5:d‘Lor^o^^coLO

03

>— ^ I ^ i r-« r—I < c\j C\J OJ C\J CM C\J C\J CSJ OJ CO CO CO CO CO CO CO ^

CM’srr^t—«r^'=d-'?d'Lnx5Ln';rcocT>CMcOuOcooco»X3uo^cocMCMCMco^uOr^ d^OOO*—l•—^CMCO'^dLn^^^OOCOCT^CT^Or—iCMCMCO'!TLO'X)r^OOC3^C3'-^CMCO

CO

I—<1—t.—If— «r— Hr—Ii—ICMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCNJCMCOCOCOCO

CT^<3^CD1— ‘X?*—'COr^r^cT'^CTHLnco^r^cocDCDCMr^LnLnr^'^iDO &«Ot—<co'^Ln'X)ooo^'^CM"=d-^ooO'^covocy>CMLOCT'Cor^r—*LOcz5LOcr>'X5CMCT'

'X)

1—It— 1,-Hr—«CMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCO'!3-':3'*^LOLOvX>'X>f— ^^COCOO^O^

OJ

4-» CO VX) X3 00 CTi *—< '?3" 00 CM CO VO IX) '=3* LD CM CO ^ CO CM CD LO CO CO lo 03d«0t—<CMCO'^X)VOCO<T»CDCMCOX>r^a^«—'COX^OOCDCOVXXO^CMX^CT^CMVDCD^

O^Lfi ^^^^^^^^^C\lCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCO^'^^^X)X)X^VOvOr^r^

co

•I— r^lX)CMr—lO<O^COCOCOCT^CDCOvOC^X)Cy^X)t—«cr»r^X)X3X)VDCO<D>COr^COO>

4->d«ecD«—»CMCO^"!d’X)'X)r^COCD>i—iCM’sd’X^VDOOCD.—<COX)r^C7>i—<COVsOCOCDCOX3

03 '=dI— ^ t—' I t f—I CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO CO CO CO ^ X3 X) X) c•—• VO CM CT^ vO CO CD CO VD CO «—* CD cr» <J^ O O «-H CM CO X) CO O CO vO O CO CM r«v. CM 00 d^cDt—<t—iCMCO'5d"*=d‘unvor^cococr»t—iCMco'^xjvor^cTicDt—Hco^X)r^cocD«—

'

CO t—*—I,—t,-Hr— c.—t^—iCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCOCOCO'^'g*

COvO^^O^OCOCOCOa^X)COCOX)COCO^^^CMCOX)O^X)'C-vOOvOX)^^COCM

d-er-tCMco^vor^cocD.—^cox)^^a^•—i-^vocTiCMX^cor—.x^o^cococMr^CMOO-^

VO (CMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCO'^^'^X)X)X)vOvOr^r^OOCOCTv

CD

+-) CM CO CO CO CO VO CO ^ ’^d" 00 CO t-^ cy^ VO X) vo CO CM X3 ‘ CO r*^ vo o ^ t—

'

CDd«»—‘CMCO'crX^VOr^COCO.—*CM^vOr>-<T>«—'COX3I—^OCMX)r^CDCOvOCDCOr*^0

q: X3

t—It—I.—(r—ir-ii-H^r-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCO'5T'5d"'C'’^X)X)X)vOvOvOr««.‘ c

o r-H,—iCDC0X3^*5d''=id'X3X)X)r^O^r^-—

•

lOCT'X^CMCOX^COCOCMCMCOX^OOCM

-»->&««—iCMCOCO'^X)VOr^COCTNCDt-~HCO^X3r>^COCT>«—iCO^VOOOCDCM'!TvOOOOCO

03 ^ >— f—' t—i r—< t—I I ,—i ,—I « CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO CO CO ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ X) X) CDC3^VOCO(TvvOCO—iCT'r«v’*:TC0C0C0C0CMCMCMCMC0’!TX)r-^<T‘CM^r*^O'^00 <-^CMcoco^X3vovor^cocno<—HCMco*=dX3vo^^ooo^Or—'rO'C'X3r^coo^

CO t-H— It— ir^r—c^^t-4CMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMcorocorocorororo

X)CMCDCT^COCO—'X)rv.O^X)CMl:T^OOX)CO'^TX300COO^r^vOOOCMOOvD^>..^^^ d^Ot—<CMCMCO'^vor>^co<T‘^co^vococDCM'<3’vDO^-^^r^o^r^^X>OTr

VO

a>

4-J ’!d’ o ^ r-H o r—I CM r—I ^ r>s. »—I X) t—H vO ^ r*^ X) CO CO CO X) nsd^Ot—It—«CMCO^X)VOl— OOa^OCMCO^VO^^a^OC^J^vOOOOCM

ce: X)

,— .CMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCO'^’^ co

•I— COC0'=^O>X)CM»—'<Dr^X3X)^X)X)^^^X)vDGOr^^r^CMvO 4->d«OOt—tt—<CMCO^ur>X)VOr^COO^O—‘CMCO^XJvOCOCT'OCMCO

03 CMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOfOCO

CM

X) r«K TT

CM 00

X) VO

CO CO

^ Cm <D CO X)X)

X) CO

GO O

ro ^

CM

VOX)

-7 3

3

H

CMvOOX)O^X3CMCJ^’^OP^'NrCMa^X)CMO^vOCO—Ovc^vDX)^^'rTTT X' . »$OOt—Ir—'.—•CMCOCO’^X)X)vOr^r^OOCT\0>Or-HCMrMCO^X)vDr«».OOavO^

CO —I t—I t—« ^ I .—j r-i .—I .—H r—. —. ^ ^ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM ^

U VO r-v. OO CJV O *—• CM CO ^ X3 VO r«s. 00 O r-^ CM CO ^ X) VO GO O' O ^ ^ T fD<JvCTvO>CJvOCD<D<D<DOOO<D<D—•—1^^ — C< ^ QJO^Cr.Cr«Cri<DOCDCDCDCDCDCD<DCDCDCDOOOOCDOCDOOOCDCDCD “ >-•—I CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM ‘ ' ' ' '*

53
Table

S-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

-j-J HD i Ctl I

Ht-Hr-H(>jojcNjcNjCMC\jc^c^(r3coco’=:3-'=::r^LnLnLr)'X>'X)'X>r^

HCNjCMC\i(>4CNjCMC\jc\jcocr)cococo'5r'=d'’^^^LnLn

O

cor^ooooLn^c\jcNjc\jcNjr-H<ocr»»X)Ln'^'^LOLnr^cric\jLOcococo^cDoo»x)

?<ooi-H«-HCNjco^Ln<£)r^cocT^cj^cD.-HC\jco'^Ln»X)r^a^cr>t-HrO’^'X)coo>»—

'

i-Ht-H.-H^,-Ht-Ht-Hr-Hr-Hr-H,-H,-H,-HC\JCNJCMCvJC\JC\JCSjCMCNjrOCOCOCOCOCOCO^

I

>

VO

On

ON

<U

W)G

bij <u PQ

<C>OC\lCNjC>JCNJCSjCNJC\JCsjC\JCsjCOrO

a>o^cor^coo^t-Hco^x>i—ivr>c\io>o^cr*crtc:>CNj'^.-Hoo'^'sOcocNjco'^vx)criLO s^Ot—^c^JCO'^Lnr^coo^»-HC^J'^u^^^o^1—'*^uDoor-Hcovr)cncNjcocncor^<--Hvx)

r-H,— lr-Hr-l,-HC\JC\JCMCNJC\JC\JCOrOCOCO^^^'^LnLnLO‘«D'X)r^r^

covJ^«?^c\Jr-^<oc3 <T^<OT--t'::3-voa^’=d*<T^^c^^LOc^J<o<J^cocT^«—tror^c\Jcr>'-OLn ^o«-H(^Jco^u^'^'vOcoo^ot-HC\l^Lor-«.cocz>c\J^Lr)^^c^^c\J^^a^«—•'^r^

LO

.-H.—I.—t,—(.-H.-H.-Hf—Jr-H^c\jCNjc\jCMC\jCNjc\jrococoroco(r)^^'?j-'5d'uOLnLO

l^•«3«-Hr^'^c\JO^r^LO’^coc^JC^Jc^LOL^^«o^^co^-Hco«^cr)'^a^^cz>^^^CM

d^<z>r-HC\jc\jcO'^^LOkDr^cocT»<z>.-HC\jro^LO'4DoocriCDc\jcO'^'sOoocr«t—'CO ^ r-Hf-Hf—tr-H.-H.-H.-H.-H.-H.-H.—I.-HCMCNJCNJCvJCNJCSJCSJCSJCNJCOCOCOCOCOCOCO'^’^ »x>CNjp^coco^OLnt—tcoun<-Hoou3'd-'-Hcovx)ro«-Hcr\oOMDLn'^cococororo

^CT).-H.-HC\JCNjcO’^^LOLn'X>r^r^coa>cDcoi-HC\icocO'=:j'LOvDr-vCOcr>cr>i-Hc\j

CO

.-h.-h.-h.-h.-h.-h.-h.-h,-h.-h.-h.-h.-h.-h.-hcnjc\jcsjcsjcnjcsjcmcsjcnjc\jc\jc\jcococo

bo

s

:§

00

0>O

-5a

<DG

Uh

Ui

03

(U >-o

G

w

T3O

OJ 'o'

U( Oh

o.-H.-H.-H,-HC\j^r-*..-H^CNjoo^iDLnLnvDooosJoovr3 '^LOcococr«cocT»cNjcnco

d«t-HC\jro"^Lnvor^coo*-HrO'^'X>cocz>c\i'^r^a^csjLOco«-HLOooc\j'^r-Huocr>

<o r-Hf-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-HT-HCsjC\jC\JC\JC\JCNJCOCOCOCOCO'^’*Cr’^LnLOLOk£>^r^r^CO

(D

4-> CO un ^ CO CO CO lo CT\ ' LO o LO o CM CM c\i ^ uD CD Ln t-H oo '4D CO ^o^cD.-Hc\jcO'?i-LOLDr^cocr>cDCMcoLOLOoocr»t-HcoLor^cj>«-H’«:d-LDcn<—'•^r-vCD

Qi LO t.-Hf-H.-H.-H.-H.-H.-Hf-H.-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCO^^'?3''^LOLOLOLO co

•r- oOLOcoor^^CMoa>o^cor^ooo^cr>CDCM'i:j-r^'-HLncn"!:3'CDLC>coocor^LO

4-i^^O«-HCMCOCO^LOvOLC>^>'COa^O«-HCM’!dLOLOr^a^CZ>«-HrOLOLDOOCDt-HCOLO

fU «:4

'

(— .-H .-H .-H .-H .-H f-H f-H .-H .-H .-H ,-H rH CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO CO CO CO ^ »4— c»—• o LO •—« ld CM CO LO CM cr> LO CO cr> LO CM «-H o CO CO oo a^ o d^CD.—iCMCMCOCO’^^LOLOLOr^OOO^CT^Ot-HCMCO'^'^LOLOr^OOO^CDf-HCO'^

CO ,-_4r-Hf-Hf-Hr-Hr-H.-Hr-Hf-H.-H.-Hr-Hr-H.-H.-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCO

LOCMCT'r^LO^cO'=3''5^'LOoocMr^cMoo'?3-r-Hcor^r^cO(-HLOCDr^LOLOcocMcr' d«Or-H.—(CMco'!rLOLor^cocr''-HCM^LOr>.(T'OCM’^LOO^«—''^3-LOcncMLOcr»CM

LO

f-H.-H.-H.-Hf-H.-H.-Hr-Hf-H.-H.-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCO'?3-'!4''=3''53‘LOLOLOLD LOOLOCMCOLO•^CMOO^coc^»cDCM'«^^LO^^cDcor^cM^^'^^-Hc^^^^^^cocDco

d«CD.-HT—iCMCMCO^LOLOLOr^OOOr-HCMCO^LOr^COCDi-HrOLOLDCOCDCMLOr^

LO

.-Hr-t.-H.-H.-H.-H.-HT—tr-H.-H.-H.-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCOCO^’^'^'d*

-^oocor-vCMoo-^^—‘r^cOr-Hoor-.LO'^CMCDcrioor^r^r^oocr\CDCM^r^i—'LO d^OO*-H.-HCMCMrO^'=j-LOLOLOr^OOa^CDi-H.-HCMCO^LOLOr^CT>CZ3 t-HCM'^LO

r-Hr-tr-Hr—tr—(r—Ir-HT-Hf-H.-H.-Hf-Hr—tr-Hr-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCO

COLOO^CO^^|-HLOCDLOCJ^'?3OLOCMCOCOOO'!dCDLOCMOO'^«—'COLOCMOCOLO

d'^CZ>C5<Z>.-Hr-HCMCMCOCOrO'«^-LOLOLOLOr^r^CO(T>O^CDCD.-HCMCMCO’^LOLOLO

CO

f-H.-Hr-(.-H.-H.-H.-H.-Hr-Hf-Hr-Hr-Hr-H.-H.-H.-H.-H.-H.-Hr-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCM

L»Lor^cocr>Of-HCMco’<=fLOLor^cocr(CD»—‘CMco'=d'LOLor^coo>cDr-HCMco^LO 'T30>CT>O^CT»OOOCD<Z>OOOCDCDi-h.—tr-Hr-Hf-H.-H.-H.-H.-Hr-HCMCMCMCMCMCM

CD(T» 0>CJ^Cr<OCDCDOOOOCOCZ)CZ50 CDC:>CDO<Z3 CD<Z>CDCDOCDCDOOCD

>-r-Hr-Hr-Hf-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCM

54
Table

S-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

^X)C\J<J^ViDCO«-HOO^CDt-HC\JLOCDLO^r^COr-HCZ)f—lC\JLOCT)’=^J*C\J»—icsjinczsr^ s^o«-Ht-Hc\jcO’^LnLor^coa^cz5 c\jcOLOVDcocz>c\j’^'.oooT—ico'OO^c\jLOcr>c\j

VT) t—ti-Ht-Ht—I,—ii—I,—ii—ii—if-HT-HCNjc\jc\jc\jc\jc\jcococococo*=d"'^'^'=:Mi^LOLn^X)

O) LO LO r~i r-H oo VO CO o^ *-H CO c\j CO VO •==4

* ^ CO CNj fD^Ot—li—JCVJCMCO^^LOVOr^OOCr»C3i—<CM'^LOVOOOO^t~CC\J^VOCOOC\J'^r^

ci: Lo

r-lr—I.—tt-Hi—it-Ht-H,—li—1^1— li—lC\JCMCMCMC\J(XIC\JCsJCOCOCOCOCO^'^'=3-'^ co

•I— *?3-cocsjr^r—vocNjr^coo^vocor-Hocor^LO'^cocococo'^LOr^o^csjvocD’^

+-> 6^<o<or-Hr-Hc\jcMcoco’=3-'^LOvor^oocoo^cDt—ic\jco'=;j-LOvor^cx)a^«—icvj^LO

ra

I— I—( f 1—i ( 1—t 1—I 1—t 1—I I I—I t-H f-H r—t t-H I—t T—I c\j C\j C\J C\J C\J CM CNJ C\J C\J CNJ CO CO CO CO

M-cI—I co'4:»cr>CMLoa^cor^t-HcooLOi-Hr^cooo^ovocMcoLOCMooLOcoc5cor^Ln

lT-^t-HCMCMCOCO’^’^LOLOVOVO^^OOCOCT^C^^OT—^^—tCMCO’^*==J*LOVO

CO

«“H t~H r-H t—I «—( r*H t~H i~H i—H «—I «—C i—H i—I t~< t—J t—H i—^ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM

LOr-HO^OOO^COr^CMC3^VOCOCDVOCMO^(3^C:>CMVOCMC3^00CO«—ir^*vJ-*5j*r^CMt-H ^CDi— tCMCOLOVOCOCTu—JCOLOVOCOCT^t—f^VOOOt-HCOVOO^COVOCO'^COCOOO

VO

t—Ii—ti—

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t—I.—«I—

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i—Ii—I.—lCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCO’54"'^'=d‘'^LOLOVOVOVOr^r^

a>

+-> c7^ LO CO CO VO CTi CO cr> CO VO cz) cn VO CM CD o »-H CO CM CO VO CO roS^CZJOt-HCMCO'^LOVOOOCT^t—lCMCO'=^JVOr^COCDCM’^LOCOOCM’^^^O^CMLncO

Q: LO

I— it—(I—t,— li—li—ICMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCO'^'^'^'^'^LOLOLO

c;o

•t— cor--CMO^r^vovor^oocr.cr\cr*covoLOLOvor^crt^^cocMVDCMooLnco»-H.—

I

-<-)&«oo«-H^cMco'^LOvor^ooa^c)»—icMcO'^^-Lr)vocoa^cDCMcoLnvococz>CM'^

fC

, ^ r-H r-H f-H t-H t—4 «—t r-H t-H t—I I-H r-t CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO CO CO CO cI-H CM LO CT\ r-H CO VO VO CM CD CO CO LO 4 VO CM cz> CT^ OO VO VO VO CO CD s^cz5 cz>cz>r-HCMCMco^LOvor^r^oococr>cDcr>r-HCMcO"=:j**^LOvor^cocr»cz)r-Hco

CO t-Hr-Hr-H«-H.-Ht-H.-Ht-Ht-Hr-Ht-H.-H.-Hr-Hr-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCO

ruOC2

>§

I

O^O^CDCMLOCrk'^Cr»VO’5d-COLncOCOCDr^r^Cy^*5;j-r-HCDi-HVO*=d“^VDCMCMVOCO

S'?cd«-hco'^lovoooct»t—4 coLor--cr»cMLor^cz?cor--r-HLOcricocococO'^ovoco

VO t-Ht-H.-H.-Hi-Hi-Ht-Hf-HCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCO^'^'5:4-LOLOLOVOVOr^r^OOCJ>C^O

I—

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CD -M CO VO CO O CM LO CO CO CO LO CO CO VO CD VO CO r-H CD CM LO CT> CM CM CO

<^3 ^CDt—^CMCO*5:3VOr^COC3^r-HCM*^VOOOCDCM’=:3r^O^CMLOCOr-H*5;^-^^^-HLOC^^COr**. LO

r-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-H,—lr-H^,-HCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCO'54-«^'^VOLOLnVOVOVOr^r**- co

•I— ^^LOCOr-Ht-Hr-Hr-Hr-HCMCOLOC^>COCOCOCO•=^3r-HCDO^C^^C^iCDCOVOC7^COCJ^VD^ 4-JS«CDr-HCMCO^VOVOr^OOCriCDr-HCO'?d‘VOr^Crir-HCO'^VOCOt-HCOVOI^CDCMLnCO

H3

I— r-Hr-Hi-Hr-Hr-Hr-Ht-Hr-Ht-H,-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCO'^’^'54‘'^LOVOLOVO c

I-H VOCOO^VO’^CMCDOOr--VOLOVOLOVOr--.COCDCMLOOOr-H'«^Cr»COCOCMCO’«d’CDr^ $«CDr-H,-HCMCO^LnLOVOr--COCr»<Z3r-HCMCOLOVOr^COCDt-HCM^LOJ^OOCDCMCO

CO r-H.-Hr-Hi-Hi-Hr-Hi-Hi-H^t-Hr-Hr-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCOCOCO'^^'^J'

o

CD

CM‘v^LO^^COCD'=^J•OOVOCMa^COCOCDCMVOCMCy^COC5COCOLOLO^^CMCOCOC^400 S'er-HCMCO'^LOf^COC3^r-HCO’^VOCOr-HCOLOCOCDCOr^CDCOr^r-HLOCD'^CJUr)0

VO

r-Hr-Hr-Hr—Cr-H«-Hr-Hr-HCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCO^'54'’^LOLnVOVOVOr^r**«.r*^COO^

CD

+-> r-H CM CM r-H ,-H r-H CM 'vf r--. r-H ^ r-H CO VO VO LO VO CTl CM CO CD> CT% OO CM r*««. ^ ro$s$r-HCMCO'^LOVOr^OOCJ^r-HCMCOLOr^OOCZ5CM^VOCOr-HCOVOCT%r-H-r^rr^r-Hr3-GO CdLO

r-Hr-H,-Hr-Hr-Hr-H,-Hr-H,-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCO’^'^^'?rLOLnLnVDVOVO

T-Hr-H,-Hr-Hr-HT-H,-Hr-Ht-Hi-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCOCO'?J"«4”^'^^VO

o^r^*5d'^r^cocDcovo*^CMcDoor^voLO'^'=4-'?i-LOvovor^o>»-HCOLOr*«-.o^ ?cDr-HCMcoco‘=dLnLOvo^^coc3^c^^cDr-HCMco^LOvor*-.oocT^QCM^O"?^'Lr)^*-oo

) r-Hr-HT-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-Ht-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCOCOrO

VOCMCTkr^VOLOLOVOVOCOCD'Nl-CT>LOr-Hr^COr-HCZ>i-HCMLnO^^CMO«-HTj*COLn

S-eOr-Hr-HCMCO^LOVOI^COOr-HCM’^VOr^Cr»r-HCOLOr*^CTkr-H*«d'r^CDCOVO<T»rO

VO r-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hr-Hi-Hr-Ht-Hr-Hr-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOCOCOCO^^^mLOVOinvO

CD

4-J LO CD VO CM CTk r-- VO CO CM r-H o r-H CO vn VO CO CD CO VO OVO O ^ CM »-H .-H CM ^ OO ras-ecD.-Hr-HCMCMco’^LOvor^cocriCDt-HCMcoLnvor^cr'CDCMcovor^cTvr-Hrovor^

O' VO r-H,-H,-H,-H,-Hf-Hr-Hr-Hr-H,-Hr-Hr-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCOCOrOrOrOrOTr^^*CJ’

c:0

•r- M‘COcOCOCOCr»VOCMCOLOCMCDCJ>COVO'^CMr-HCDCDCT^CDCDr-HrOVOCO*-H*r:}-CO +Ds^ocz3r-Hi-HCMCMco*^^LOvor^r^cocT^Or-HCMco^^vor^coa%0'~'Co^vr>

fO

1

r-H r-H I-H r-H t-H t-H r-H r-H 1-H r-H t-H ,-H r-H r-H r-H CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO ro CO CO

M—c'—I CO VO <3^ CO CM CM VO r-H VO CM CO <J> VO CD VO «-H r>. o VO CO O to CM O CO a-eOCDCDi—i<—lC\JCMCOCO'^’^LOLOVOVOr-«.COOOC3^C3^CDr-H,—rCMCOCO*cy VOVOVT

CO . ^

r—I r—I r-H r-H r-H t—I r-H r-H i-H i-H i-H r-H r-H i—H «-H i—H r-H i-H r-H r-H CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM *

s-vDr\cocncDi-HCMco'^LOvor^cx)criCD.-HCMcO'M"vOvorv.oocricDr-Hr>iro-«i‘io

fO VD ^D CD CD CD CD CD CD CD r-H ^H r—H ^H i—i r—H r-H r-H i-H i—H CM CM C' J

' J CN OJCncria^CriCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDOCDCDCDCSCDOCDOOO

>-,-H,-Hr-HT-HCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCMCNjr-iC“i^‘'~:

55

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