CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS
 

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 

13.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 13-1
 

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS............................................................................................................ 13-1
 

13.3 METHOD ...................................................................................................................... 13-2
 

13.4 RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 13-2
 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 13.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case Forecast................................................................... 13-4
 

Table 13.4.2 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast................................................. 13-5
 

Table 13.4.3 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast................................................. 13-6
 

Table 13.4.4 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast................................................. 13-7
 

Table 13.4.5 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast................................................. 13-8
 

Table 13.4.6 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast................................................. 13-9
 

Table 13.4.7 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast............................................... 13-10
 

Table 13.4.8 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast............................................... 13-11
 

Table 13.4.9 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast............................ 13-12
 

Table 13.4.10 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast............................ 13-13
 

Table 13.4.11 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast............................ 13-14
 

Table 13.4.12 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast............................ 13-15
 

Table 13.4.13 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast............................ 13-16
 

Table 13.4.14 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast............................ 13-17
 

Table 13.4.15 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast ................................................. 13-18
 

Table 13.4.16 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast ................................................. 13-19
 

Table 13.4.17 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast ................................................. 13-20
 

Table 13.4.18 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast ................................................. 13-21
 

Table 13.4.19 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast ................................................. 13-22
 

Table 13.4.20 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast ................................................. 13-23
 

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CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS
 

13.1 INTRODUCTION
 

DOE analyzed the effects of residential heating products standard levels on the electric 

and gas utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s 

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).a NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectored, partial 

equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a 

baseline energy forecast for the United States, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The AEO for 

2009 (AEO2009) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030.1 DOE used a variant of this 

model, referred to here as NEMS-BT,b to account for the impacts of heating products energy 

conservation standards on the baseline energy forecast. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of 

a comparison between model results for the AEO2009 Reference Case and for policy cases in 

which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2009. 

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed capacity and 

generation that result for each trial standard level (TSL) by plant type, as well as changes in 

residential electricity and natural gas consumption. The AEO2009 reference case corresponds to 

medium economic growth. See appendix 13A for high and low growth forecast data. 

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS 

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in 

the analysis of energy conservation standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well 

known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition, 

the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various 

energy supply and demand sectors, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy 

conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal 

effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of energy conservation standards than 

considering only average effects. 

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AEO2009 and treats water heater, 

direct heating equipment, and pool heater energy conservation standards as variations in policy. 

a For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, DOE/EIA-0581(2003), 

March, 2003. 

b DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any 

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run 

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT 

was previously called NEMS-BRS. 

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The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2009 Reference Case and 

each proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards reduces total natural gas 

and electricity demand by less than one percent in any given year, its effect cannot be detected 

directly in the simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and 

interpolated results for the TSLs. 

13.3 METHOD 

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (chapter 

10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be 

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger 

than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results 

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher energy use reduction levels in 

NEMS-BT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate 

the results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard. 

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity and natural gas consumption in the 

NEMS-BT Residential Demand Module. Energy use reductions are applied to the residential 

water heating end use for water heaters and pool heaters and to the residential heating end use for 

direct heating equipment. The savings are divided evenly among the U.S. Census divisions. 

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the residential 

heating products energy conservation standards analysis extend to the year 2045 for water 

heaters, and 2043 for direct heating equipment and pool heaters. It is not feasible to extend the 

forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an 

approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem 

reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable 

because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by 

extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal 

emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is 

beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty. 

Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While this 

may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be consistent. To 

emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish 

them from actual NEMS-BT results. 

13.4 RESULTS 

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for residential-sector energy 

consumption and electricity generation and installed capacity. Results are presented in five-year 

increments to year 2030. Beyond year 2030, an extrapolation to 2045 for water heaters, and 2043 

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for direct heating equipment and pool heaters for each proposed TSL represents a simple 

replication of the year 2030 results. 

The results from the AEO2009 Reference Case are shown in Table 13.4.1. 

A separate set of TSLs is modeled for each product. The results from the water heater 

TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.2 through 13.4.8, the results from the direct heating equipment 

TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.9 through 13.4.14, and the results from the pool heater TSLs 

are presented in Tables 13.4.15 through 13.4.20. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated 

results, as described in section 13.3, for total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity. 

The proposed residential water heater TSLs reduce both electricity and natural gas 

consumption compared to the AEO2009 Reference Case. Water heaters provide the most 

significant energy savings of all the residential heating products. The electricity savings 

predicted by the NIA Model range from 0.12 to 3.71 percent of total residential electricity 

consumption by year 2030. The natural gas savings predicted by the NIA model range from 0.61 

to 4.27 percent of total residential natural gas consumption by year 2030. 

The proposed direct heating equipment TSLs reduce natural gas consumption, but modest 

increases can be seen in residential electricity consumption compared to the AEO2009 Reference 

Case. The natural gas savings predicted by the NIA model range from 0.11 to 0.74 percent of 

total residential natural gas consumption by year 2030. The impacts on electricity increase use by 

a range of 0.00 to 0.03 percent of total residential electricity consumption by year 2030. 

The proposed pool heater TSLs reduce natural gas consumption, but slight increases can 

be seen in residential electricity consumption compared to the AEO2009 Reference Case. The 

natural gas savings predicted by the NIA model range from 0.01 to 0.17 percent of total 

residential natural gas consumption by year 2030. 

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Table 13.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case Forecast
 

NEMS-BT Results: AEO2009 Reference 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 

Electricity Sales (TWh)2 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28 

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 

Other (Quads)3 

Total U.S. Electric Generation 4 

1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 

Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 

Total (TWh)5 

Installed Generating Capacity 6 

4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 

Coal (GW) 314 325 331 333 334 345 

Other Fossil (GW)7 439 471 443 452 499 542 

Nuclear (GW) 100 101 104 110 110 110 

Renewables (GW) 100 134 171 176 182 188 

Total (GW)8 

Residential Average Energy Prices 9 

952 1,030 1,049 1,072 1,126 1,185 

Electricity (¢/kWh) 10.00 9.77 10.55 11.08 11.24 11.79 

Natural Gas ($/GJ) 12.39 10.61 10.75 11.90 12.00 13.27 

Petroleum Products ($/GJ) 16.57 12.66 20.46 23.24 23.84 25.48 

Natural Gas ($/MBtu) 13.07 11.19 11.34 12.56 12.66 14.00 

Petroleum Products ($/MBtu) 17.48 13.36 21.59 24.52 25.15 26.88 

1

Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2009: Energy Consumption, Residential 

2

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electricity Sales by Sector 

3

Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy 

4

Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators 

5

Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators 

6

Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability 

7

Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators 

8

Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells 

9

Comparable to Table A3 of AEO2009: Residential 

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Table 13.4.2 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast
 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,659 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.17 -1.01 -1.73 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.25 5.29 5.24 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.016 -0.027 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.97 5.01 4.97 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.015 -0.026 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,202 2,304 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.06 -0.25 -0.42 -1.03 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 713 907 978
 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.088 0.003 -0.777 -1.097 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50
 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.027 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890
 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.132 -0.166 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797
 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.036 -0.072 -0.158 -0.359 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,809 5,018 Total (TWh) 0.000 -0.003 -0.319 -1.486 -2.623 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.4 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.032 -0.029 -0.026 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.3 451.8 499.4 542.5 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.129 0.046 -0.012 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.023 -0.023 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.036 -0.034 -0.027 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.5 1,071.5 1,125.8 1,185.2 Total (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.061 -0.041 -0.088 

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Table 13.4.3 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast
 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,658 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.21 -1.29 -2.21 Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.24 5.28 5.23 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.026 -0.042 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.68 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.97 5.00 4.95 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.024 -0.040 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,201 2,303 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.08 -0.38 -0.64 -1.56 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 713 906 978
 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.13 0.01 -1.19 -1.67 Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50
 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 889
 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.25 Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 770 797
 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.06 -0.11 -0.24 -0.55 Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,542 4,808 5,017 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.49 -2.27 -3.99 Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.3 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.049 -0.044 -0.040 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.4 451.9 499.4 542.6 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.002 0.196 0.070 -0.018 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 109.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.036 -0.035 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.0 176.0 182.3 188.2 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.055 -0.053 -0.041 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.5 1,071.4 1,125.8 1,185.1 Total (GW) 0.000 0.002 0.092 -0.062 -0.134 

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Table 13.4.4 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,475 1,567 1,656 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.40 -2.45 -4.19 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.24 5.28 5.23 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.026 -0.042 

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.68 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.97 5.00 4.95 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.024 -0.040 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,201 2,303 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.09 -0.43 -0.72 -1.78 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 713 906 977 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.15 0.01 -1.34 -1.89 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 889 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.23 -0.29 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 770 796 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.06 -0.12 -0.27 -0.62 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,307 4,541 4,807 5,016 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.55 -2.56 -4.53 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.3 333.9 344.3 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.055 -0.050 -0.046 Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.4 451.9 499.4 542.6 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.002 0.222 0.079 -0.020 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 109.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.040 -0.040 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.0 176.0 182.3 188.2 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.062 -0.060 -0.046 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.5 1,071.4 1,125.7 1,185.1 Total (GW) 0.000 0.002 0.104 -0.070 -0.152 

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Table 13.4.5 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,406 1,474 1,565 1,654 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -0.55 -3.36 -5.73 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.24 5.28 5.23 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.026 -0.042 

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.68 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.97 5.00 4.95 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.024 -0.040 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,201 2,302 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.10 -0.47 -0.79 -1.94 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 713 906 977 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.16 0.01 -1.46 -2.07 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 889 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.25 -0.31 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 770 796 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.07 -0.14 -0.30 -0.68 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,307 4,541 4,807 5,015 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.01 -0.60 -2.79 -4.95 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.9 333.2 333.9 344.3 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.060 -0.054 -0.050 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.4 451.9 499.4 542.7 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.003 0.241 0.086 -0.022 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 109.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.044 -0.044 Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.0 176.0 182.2 188.2 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.068 -0.065 -0.050 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.5 1,071.4 1,125.7 1,185.1 Total (GW) 0.000 0.003 0.114 -0.076 -0.166 

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Table 13.4.6 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

2025 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,406 1,471 1,561 1,648 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -1.01 -6.15 -10.48 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.24 5.27 5.22 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.005 -0.029 -0.048 

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.69 1.68 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.96 4.99 4.95 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.005 -0.027 -0.045 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,137 2,196 2,199 2,300 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.13 -0.90 -2.01 -3.95 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 649 713 905 976 Gas (TWh) 0.00 -0.09 1.69 -1.29 -2.81 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 880 889 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.47 -0.58 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 643 705 768 794 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.09 -2.12 -2.19 -2.71 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,307 4,538 4,802 5,010 Total (TWh) 0.00 -0.32 -1.33 -5.97 -9.96 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.8 333.1 333.7 344.1 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 -0.192 -0.188 -0.188 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.5 451.9 499.2 542.6 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 -0.017 0.348 0.100 -0.157 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.2 110.2 109.9 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.080 -0.080 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 170.6 175.6 181.8 187.8 Renewables (GW) 0.000 -0.004 -0.497 -0.488 -0.454 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.1 1,070.8 1,125.0 1,184.3 Total (GW) 0.000 -0.021 -0.341 -0.656 -0.879 

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Table 13.4.7 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,402 1,448 1,522 1,602 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -4.78 -29.00 -49.45 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.31 5.26 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.008 -0.011 

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.98 5.03 4.99 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.007 -0.011 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,136 2,192 2,193 2,294 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.06 -2.45 -5.73 -9.67 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 653 712 902 972 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.37 5.53 -1.56 -6.32 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 875 880 887 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -1.09 -1.42 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 639 701 764 790 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.27 -6.22 -6.15 -7.37 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,305 4,529 4,787 4,994 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.04 -3.14 -14.53 -24.67 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 330.5 332.8 333.4 343.4 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -0.53 -0.48 -0.49 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.4 444.0 452.0 499.0 542.8 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.09 0.84 0.24 -0.39 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.1 110.1 109.7 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.19 -0.19 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 169.6 174.6 180.9 186.9 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.05 -1.52 -1.51 -1.41 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.1 1,048.2 1,069.6 1,123.4 1,182.7 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.14 -1.22 -1.94 -2.47 

13-10 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.8 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,402 1,447 1,520 1,599 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.00 0.00 -4.93 -29.93 -51.12 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.19 5.15 5.13 5.05 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.019 -0.114 -0.188 

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.71 1.69 1.67 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.008 -0.014 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.92 4.88 4.86 4.79 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.018 -0.108 -0.179 

Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.62 1.60 1.58 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.008 -0.013 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,133 2,186 2,183 2,284 Coal (TWh) 0.00 -0.13 -5.01 -11.66 -19.58 

Gas (TWh) 753 776 658 711 895 964 Gas (TWh) 0.00 0.75 11.32 -3.17 -12.81 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 874 878 885 Nuclear (TWh) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2.21 -2.88 

Renewables (TWh) 357 467 632 694 756 783 Renewables (TWh) 0.00 -0.55 -12.73 -12.52 -14.94 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,302 4,514 4,762 4,965 Total (TWh) 0.00 0.08 -6.42 -29.56 -49.97 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity 

Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 329.9 332.3 332.9 342.2 Coal (GW) 0.00 0.00 -1.09 -0.98 -0.98 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.3 444.9 452.3 498.6 543.1 Other Fossil (GW) 0.00 -0.18 1.71 0.49 -0.78 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 109.9 109.9 109.3 Nuclear (GW) 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.38 -0.38 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.4 168.0 173.0 179.4 185.4 Renewables (GW) 0.00 -0.09 -3.12 -3.06 -2.86 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,029.9 1,046.9 1,067.6 1,120.9 1,180.0 Total (GW) 0.00 -0.28 -2.50 -3.94 -5.01 

13-11 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.9 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.048 0.073 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.31 5.27 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.005 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 4.99 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.005 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 0.019 -0.019 0.017 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.004 0.009 0.057 0.092 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.053 0.039 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.003 0.035 0.092 0.152 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.002 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.003 0.016 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.005 0.012 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.009 0.010 0.030 

13-12 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.10 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.048 0.073 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.31 5.27 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.004 -0.006 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.03 4.99 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.004 -0.005 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 0.021 -0.021 0.019 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.064 0.102 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.008 0.059 0.044 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.003 0.038 0.102 0.170 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.002 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.004 0.018 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.005 0.013 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.010 0.011 0.033 

13-13 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.11 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.018 0.047 0.073 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.31 5.27 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.005 -0.007 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.03 4.99 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.007 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 -0.002 0.025 -0.025 0.023 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.006 0.012 0.078 0.125 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.003 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.072 0.053 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.004 0.047 0.125 0.208 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.003 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.004 0.022 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.006 0.016 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.012 0.013 0.041 

13-14 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.12 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.069 0.180 0.277 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.30 5.26 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 -0.014 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.68 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.98 5.03 4.99 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 -0.013 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 -0.006 -0.015 -0.071 0.049 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.010 0.062 0.161 0.247 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.010 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.015 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.024 0.155 0.108 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.004 0.071 0.251 0.428 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.004 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.004 -0.005 -0.003 0.028 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.011 0.011 0.030 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,126.0 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.004 0.006 0.012 0.061 

13-15 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.13 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.076 0.199 0.308 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.25 5.30 5.26 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.010 -0.015 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.69 1.68 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.98 5.03 4.98 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.004 -0.009 -0.014 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 -0.007 -0.016 -0.078 0.054 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 980 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.011 0.068 0.177 0.272 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.011 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 0.017 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.026 0.170 0.119 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,022 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.004 0.078 0.276 0.472 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.004 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.005 -0.006 -0.003 0.031 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.012 0.012 0.033 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,126.0 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.005 0.007 0.013 0.068 

13-16 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.14 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.104 0.273 0.422 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.20 5.24 5.28 5.24 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.009 -0.023 -0.036 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.71 1.69 1.68 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.006 -0.009 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.93 4.97 5.01 4.96 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.008 -0.022 -0.034 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.62 1.60 1.59 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.006 -0.009 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 -0.017 -0.040 -0.190 0.130 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 909 980 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.027 0.167 0.430 0.657 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.027 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.017 0.040 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.063 0.413 0.287 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,545 4,813 5,022 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.010 0.190 0.670 1.140 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.5 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.011 0.011 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.5 542.5 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.011 -0.014 -0.008 0.074 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.4 188.4 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.028 0.029 0.079 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,126.1 1,185.4 Total (GW) 0.000 0.011 0.017 0.032 0.163 

13-17 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.15 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.27 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.001 -0.002 -0.001 Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.006 0.007 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.003 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.009 0.010 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 

13-18 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.16 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.27 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.001 -0.003 -0.001 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.011 0.012 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.008 0.005 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.016 0.017 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.004 

13-19 

EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.17 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast
 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.009 0.011 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.31 5.27 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 0.001 0.003 -0.011 -0.004 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.001 0.012 0.034 0.037 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 0.004 0.025 0.017 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.001 0.018 0.049 0.052 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.002 0.005 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.006 Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.006 0.005 0.012 

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EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.18 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.009 0.011 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.31 5.27 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.003 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.010 -0.014 -0.003 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.002 0.021 0.035 0.039 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.027 0.013 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.001 0.013 0.049 0.052 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.002 0.006 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.006 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.005 0.005 0.013 

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EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.19 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.004 0.009 0.011 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.31 5.27 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 -0.001 -0.014 -0.019 -0.004 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.003 0.029 0.048 0.054 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.037 0.018 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.001 0.017 0.067 0.072 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.004 0.003 0.009 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.003 0.008 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.001 0.007 0.007 0.018 

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EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
Table 13.4.20 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast 

NEMS-BT Results: Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case 

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 

Residential Sector Energy Consumption Residential Sector Energy Consumption 

Electricity Sales (TWh) 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661 Electricity Sales (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.008 0.010 

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.31 5.27 Natural Gas (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.007 -0.009 Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other (EJ) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.98 5.03 4.99 Natural Gas (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 -0.007 -0.008 Other (Quads) 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60 Other (Quads) 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 Total U.S. Electric Generation Total U.S. Electric Generation Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305 Coal (TWh) 0.000 -0.003 -0.030 -0.040 -0.009 

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979 Gas (TWh) 0.000 0.005 0.061 0.102 0.114 

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50 Petroleum (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890 Nuclear (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 0.009 

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797 Renewables (TWh) 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.078 0.038 

Total (TWh) 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021 Total (TWh) 0.000 0.002 0.036 0.143 0.152 

Installed Generating Capacity Installed Generating Capacity Coal (GW) 313.8 325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6 Coal (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 0.003 

Other Fossil (GW) 438.9 470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4 Other Fossil (GW) 0.000 0.002 0.008 0.006 0.018 

Nuclear (GW) 100.1 101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0 Nuclear (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 

Renewables (GW) 99.5 133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3 Renewables (GW) 0.000 0.000 0.006 0.006 0.017 

Total (GW) 952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3 Total (GW) 0.000 0.002 0.014 0.014 0.037 

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EE-2006-STD-0129 COMMENT 56.10
 

 

REFERENCES
 

1.	 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to 

2030, 2009. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2009). 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/> 

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