# Appendix N Conceptual Description

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 1 PM2.5 Conceptual Description Kentucky PM2.5 Non-Attainment Areas First Draft April 15, 2008

1.0 Objective This conceptual description provides a summ ary of the causes of PM2.5 non-attainment for counties in KY designated by EPA as not at taining the annual PM2.5 standard. The conceptual description includes summa ries of the following analyses:

• Non-attainment areas counties in KY a nd trends in over all PM2.5 mass for available monitoring record 1999-2006.

• PM2.5 components that contribute to fine particle loadings in the PM2.5 nonattainment areas.

• Meteorological conditions under which PM2.5 mass is elevated

• Emissions contributions and emissions sensitivity analyses using the CMAQ regional air quality model to project changes in PM2.5 mass loadings in response to changes in 2009 emissions from specific source and pollutant categories

The conceptual description concludes with a recommendation for major pollutants and source categories to consider in demons trating attainment of the PM2.5 standard.
2.0 PM2.5 Monitoring Data for Kentucky Non-Attainment Areas

There are three PM2.5 non-attainment areas in Kentucky. All three areas are multi-state areas with counties and partia l counties in more than one state as listed below:
Louisville, KY-IN: KY - Bullitt and Jefferson Coun ties; IN - Clark, Floyd, and Jefferson Counties
Cincinnati-Hamilton, KY-IN-OH: OH- Butler, Clermont, Hamilton, and Warren Counties; IN - Dearborn County; KY - Boone, Campbell, and Kenton Counties Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV: WV - Cabell and Wayne Counties, and the Graham Tax District in Mason County; Ky - Boyd County and the area in Lawrence County described by the US Census 2000 block group identifier 21-27-9901-6; OH - Lawrence and Scioto Counties, Monroe a nd Sprigg Townships in Adams County, and Addison and Cheshire Townships in Gallia County These nonattainment areas are illustrated in Figure 2.0-1.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 2 Figure 2.0-1. Counties in the Louisville, KY-IN, Cincinnati-Hamilton, KY-IN-OH, and Huntingon-Ashland, KY-OH-WV PM2.5 nonattainment areas.

2.1 PM2.5 Federal Reference Method (FRM) Monitors
EPA’s Federal Reference Method (FRM) PM2.5 monitors collect filter-based 24-hr samples every third or sixth day; total PM2.5 mass is reported. The FRM PM2.5 values are the basis for the designation of PM2.5 non-at tainment areas listed above. Consistent with EPA modeling guidance 1 

## , design values are calculated based on quarterly averages for the period 2000-2004. Annual average PM2.5 trends over the period 1999-2006 are illustrated for the Louisville, KY-IN non-at tainment area in Figure 2.1-1, for the Cincinnati-Hamilton, KY-IN-OH area in Figure 2.1-2 and the for Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV non-attainment area in Figu re 2.1-3. Annual average PM2.5 values generally declined over the period 1999-2004, increased in 2005 and declined again in 2006. In 2006, the highest annual averag e PM2.5 in the Louisville, KY-IN nonattainment area was 15.11 μ g/m3 at the FRM monitor in Wyandotte Park, Jefferson County, KY (21-111-0044). In the Cinci nnati-Hamilton, KY-IN-OH nonattainment area the highest 2006 annual average PM2.5 value was 15.80 μ g/m3 at the Hamilton County, OH monitor at St. Bernard (39-061-8001). In the Huntington-Ashland, KY-IN-OH

1 

### Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze. EPA–454/B-07-002. April 2007.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 3 nonattainment area the highest 2006 a nnual average PM2.5 value was 15.02 μ g/m3 at the Cabell County, WV mon itor (54-011-0006).

Annual Average PM2.5 - Louisville, KY-IN

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5μg/m3 

### 21-029-0006 21-111-0043 21-111-0044 21-111-0048 21-111-0051 18-019-0005 18-019-0006 18-043-1004



## Figure 2.1-1. Annual Average PM2.5 mass for Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors in Louisville, KY-IN non-attainment area for 1999-2006.



## Annual Average PM2.5 Cincinnati, KY-IN-OH

0 5 10 15 20 25

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5μg/m3 21-037-0003 21-117-0007 39-061-0014 39-061-0040 39-061-0042 39-061-7001 39-061-8001



## Figure 2.1-2. Annual Average PM2.5 mass for Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors in the Cincinnati-Hamilton, KY-IN-OH non-attainment area for 1999-2006.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 4 Annual Averge PM2.5 Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV

0 5 10 15 20 25

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5μg/m3 21-019-0017 39-087-0010 39-145-0013 54-011-0006



## Figure 2.1-3. Annual Average PM2.5 mass for Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors in the Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV non-attainment area for 1999-2006. Quarterly and annual average PM2.5 concentr ations for the FRM monitors in the Louisville, KY-IN nonattainment area are illustrated in Figure 2.1-4, for the HuntingtonAshland, KY-OH-WV nonattainment area in Figure 2.1.5 and for the CincinnatiHamilton, KY-IN-OH nonattainment area in Fi gure 2.1.6. Quarterly trends are similar across the FRM monitors in the three nonattainm ent areas. For all th ese sites, the third quarter has the highest PM2.5 averages and th e fourth quarter generally has the lowest averages. In the Cincinnati, OH nonatta inment area, the Hamilton County, OH FRM monitors have consistently had higher PM2.5 averages than the Campbell and Kenton County, KY monitors. Regionally, PM2.5 concentrations are near the annual standa rd for the period 1999-2006 in KY, IN, OH, and WV. The Louisvil le, Cincinnati, and Huntington-Ashland nonattainment areas have levels that are incremental higher th an the regional averages do to local contributions.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 5 Figure 2.1-4. Quarterly and Annual Averag e PM2.5 mass for Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors in Louisville, KY-IN non-attainment area for 1999-2006. Louisville (37-Southern Ave.)/Jefferson Co., KY (21-111-0043) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

Louisville (Wyandotte Park)/Jefferson Co., KY (21- 111-0044) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

Louisville (Barret Ave.)/Jefferson Co., KY (21-111- 0048) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

Shepherdsville/Bullitt Co., KY (21-029-0006) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

Quarterly Averages Annual Average

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 6 Figure 2.1-4 (continued). Quarterly an d Annual Average PM2.5 mass for Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors in Louisville, KY-IN area for 1999-2006. Jeffersonville (Spring St.)/Clark County, IN (18-019-0005) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

Jeffersonville (Walnut St.)/Clark County, IN (18-019-0006) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

New Albany/Floyd County, IN (18-043-1004) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

Quarterly Averages Annual Average Louisville (Watson Lane)/Jefferson County, KY (21-111-0051) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 7 Figure 2.1-4. Quarterly and Annual Average PM2.5 mass for selected Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors in the Cinc innati-Hamilton, KY-IN-OH area for 1999-2006. Cincinnati (Seymour)/Hamilton County, OH (39-061-0014) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3) Fort Thomas/Campbell County, KY (21-037-0003) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

Covington/Kenton County, KY (21-117-0007) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

St. Bernard/Hamilton County, OH (39-061-8001) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

Quarterly Averages Annual Average

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 8 Figure 2.1-6. Quarterly and Annual Averag e PM2.5 mass for Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors in the Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV area for 1999-2006. Ironton/Lawrence County, OH (39-087-0010) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25

1999 4 2 2001 4 2 2003 4 2 2005 4 2PM2.5(μg/m3)

New Boston/Scioto County, OH (39-145-0013) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1999 4 2 2001 4 2 2003 4 2 2005 4 2PM2.5(μg/m3)

Quarterly Averages Annual Average Cabell Co, WV (54-011-0006) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3) Ashland/Boyd County, KY (21-019-0017) FRM Mass

0 5 10 15 20 25

1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234 1234
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006PM2.5(μg/m3)

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 9 2.2 Speciated PM2.5 Data for Kent ucky Non-attainment Areas EPA’s Speciated Trend Network (STN) PM 2.5 monitors collect filter-based 24-hr samples every third or sixth day; filters are analyzed to provide total PM2.5 mass and mass of individual. Quarterly average sp eciated PM2.5 data for STN monitors in the Kentucky non-attainment areas are illustrate d in Figure 2.2-1. PM2.5 composition is similar for other STN sites in these nona ttainment areas. PM2.5 measurements are separated into several components: sulfate (SO 4 

## ), nitrate (NO 3 

## ), ammonium (NH 4 

## ), particulate organic matter (POM), elemental carbon (EC), and crustal materials. Sulfate (SO4) and particulate organi c matter (POM, also called Organic Carbon, OC) are the dominant contributors to PM2.5 mass in these nonattainment areas. Sulfate peaks in the third quarter are primarily responsible for th e peak PM2.5 values in the third quarter. Sulfate levels are highest in the third quarter and lowest in the first and fourth quarters, ranging spatially and seasonally from 3-10 μ g/m3. In contrast, organic carbon leve ls are fairly constant across the quarters, varying spatially and seasonally from 3-7 μ g/m3. Organic carbon speciat ion data from Mammoth Cave, KY indicate greater contributions from pr imary carbon (combustion of fossil fuels, biomass burning, vegetative detritus, and cooki ng) in the winter months and greater contributions from secondary organic ae rosol (from biogenic and anthropogenic emissions) during the summer months. Or ganic carbon speciati on in urban areas suggests higher contributions from fuel co mbustion from mobile sources and primary carbon sources than in the Class I areas. Spa tial variation in OC can be seen on the local scale by comparing quarterly averages across the Jefferson County STN monitors (21- 111-0043 and -0048 illustrated in Figure2.2-1). Nitrate (NO3) has a significant contribu tion to PM2.5 in the KY nonattainment areas, particularly in the first quarter . Ammonium (NH4) is associated with sulfate or nitrate. Higher amounts of NO 3 

## are present in the cooler months, with very low concentrations in the third quarter. Ammonium nitrate (NH 4 

## NO 3 

## ) formation is a temperature-limited process with particle formation favored at lower temperatures. At higher temperatures nitrogen oxides remain in gaseous form as nitric acid. NH 4 

## NO 3 

## levels are higher in KY than in other nonattainment areas in the southeas tern US, in part due to cooler winter time temperatures and in part due to closer proximity to the la rge source region for ammonia in the midwestern and central states. The EC and crustal components of PM2.5 are generally small contributors to the total PM2.5 mass. The difference between total measured PM2.5 and reconstructed PM2.5 is at tributed to other components such as metals or particle bound water. Secondary pollutants (SO4, NO3, and OC) are the major contributors to PM2.5. Primary components (EC, soil) are relatively minor contributors. Thus precursors of secondary components (e.g. SO2, NOx, biogenic VOC) are more important contributors to PM2.5 mass than primary PM2.5 sources. The exception is seen when a local source of primary PM is located in close proximity to the monitor.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 10 Figure 2.2-1. Quarterly and Annual Average Contributions to total measured PM2.5 mass at representative STN sites in th e Louisville, KY, Cincinnati, OH-KY and Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV nonattainment areas. Louisv ille (37th and Southern Ave.)/Jefferson C ounty, KY (21-111-0043)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30123412341234123412341234 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006STN Mass (μg/m3) Other Soil LAC POM NO3 NH4 SO4 Ann. Avg.

Louisville (Barret Ave.)/Jefferson County, KY (21-111-0048)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30123412341234123412341234 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006STN Mass (μg/m3) Other Soil LAC POM NO3 NH4 SO4 Ann. Avg.

Covington/Kenton County, KY (21-117-0007)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30123412341234123412341234 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006STN Mass (μg/m3) Other Soil LAC POM NO3 NH4 SO4 Ann. Avg.

Ashland/Boyd County, KY (21-019-0017)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30123412341234123412341234 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006STN Mass (μg/m3) Other Soil LAC POM NO3 NH4 SO4 Ann. Avg.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 11 Air quality model projections using the Comm unity Model of Air Quality (CMAQ) for 2002 for the VISTAS 12-km domain (refer ence VISTAS Modeling Technical Support Document, 2007, ENVIRON) provide insight into the spatial variability across the KYIN-OH-WV nonattainment areas. Spatial plot s show that annual average PM2.5 levels are higher along the Ohio River and north into OH and IN than in the rest of the state of Kentucky (Figures 2.2-2). The annual average sulfate spatial plot shows higher spatial variability than PM2.5 with hi gh sulfate concentrations in the vicinity of major point source regions along the Ohio River and the WV Panhandle (Figure 2.2-3). In contrast, annual average organic carbon levels are fair ly constant across Kentucky with locally elevated levels in the Louisville and H untington-Ashland nonatta inment areas (Figure 2.2-4).

Figure 2.2-2. 2002 Annual average PM2.5 concentrations modeled by CMAQ for VISTAS 12 km modeling domain.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 12 Figures 2.2-3 and 2.2-4. 2002 Annual average su lfate and organic carbon concentrations modeled by CMAQ for VISTAS 12 km modeling domain.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 13 The CMAQ model can also be used to evaluate source contributions to organic carbon in the Kentucky nonattainment areas. For example, at the Louisville monitor (21-111- 0043), the majority of carbon in the first an d fourth quarters is primary carbon with smaller contributions from primary carbon in the second and fourth quarters. Secondary organic carbon from biogenic sources is most important in the second and third quarters. The model suggests that there is little secondary organic carbon formed from anthropogenic emissions. The model also su ggests that the contri butions of organic carbon to PM2.5 are little changed between 2002 and 2009.

Collectively, these monitoring and modeling results confirm the conclusion that emissions control strategies to reduce emissi ons of SO2 contributing to sulfate would be most effective in reducing PM2.5 in Kentucky nonattainment areas. Reducing anthropogenic emissions of primary PM2.5 cont ributing to particulate organic matter and of nitrous oxides and ammonia contributi ng to ammonium nitrate would likely reduce PM2.5 concentrations more on winter days than summer days.

3.0 Meteorological Contributions to PM2.5 Concentrations Classification and Regression Tr ee Analyses were used to characterize the relationship between meteorological conditions and elev ated PM2.5 concentrations for the period 2000-2004 for several STN sites in the southeastern states. Days were assigned to one of four classes based on PM2.5 concentration (Class 1 days with PM2.5 mass less than 20 μ g/m3; Class 4 days with PM2.5 mass greater than 37.5 μ g/m3). Days in each class were CMAQ Modeled Organic Matter- Jefferson County, KY (21-111-0043)

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

2002gt2 2009gt2 2002gt2 2009gt2 2002gt2 2009gt2 2002gt2 2009gt2 2002gt2 2009gt2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annμg/m3 POM PSOM SOMB SOMA POM : Primary OM, PSOM : Polymerized Secondary OM SOMB : Biogenic Secondary OM, SOMA : Anthropogenic Secondary OM 

### CMAQ Modeled Organic Matter- Jefferson County, KY (21-111-0043)

0 0.5

1 1.5

2 2.5

3 3.5

2002gt2 2009gt2 2002gt2 2009gt2 2002gt2 2009gt2 2002gt2 2009gt2 2002gt2 2009gt2
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annμg/m3 POM PSOM SOMB SOMA POM : Primary OM, PSOM : Polymerized Secondary OM SOMB : Biogenic Secondary OM, SOMA : Anthropogenic Secondary OM

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 14 then assigned to bins based on meteorologi cal conditions, with days in the same bin sharing similar meteorological characteristics. Across the southeas tern US, days with elevated PM2.5 concentrations most frequently occurred on days with high temperatures, high relative humidity, low wind speeds, and elevated PM2.5 mass on the previous day at upwind urban areas. This is illustrated for the Louisville and the Huntington-Ashland areas in Figures 3.1-1 and 3.1- 2. On high PM2.5 mass days (C lass 3 and 4), sulfate and organic carbon are elevated compared to days with lower PM2.5 mass (Class 1) as illustrated in Figures 3.3-3 and 3.3-4. Elevated nitrate on some Class 2 days indicates winter days for which nitrate is elevated but overall PM2.5 mass is co mparatively low. Elemental carbon is a small fraction of fine mass on all days.

Figure 3.1-1. Results of Classification and Regression Tree analyses demonstrating the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 mass concen trations for the Louisville non-attainment area. YFM=yesterday fine mass. 

# CATEGORICAL COMPARISONS FOR PM2.5: LOUISVILLE

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

T (deg C) YFM (μgm-3) <20 20-27.5 27.5-37.5 >=37.5

0 1 2 3 4

WS (m/s) <20 20-27.5 27.5-37.5 >=37.5

0 90 180 270 360

WD (deg) <20 20-27.5 27.5-37.5 >=37.5

0 20 40 60 80 100

RH (%) <20 20-27.5 27.5-37.5 >=37.5 * 

### Surface Characteristics: All Days (2000-2004)/4 PM2.5 Conc. Categories ( μ gm -3)

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 15 Figure 3.1-2. Results of Classification and Regression Tree analyses demonstrating the influence of meteorological conditions on PM2.5 mass concentrations for the Huntington/Ashland non-attainment area. YFM=yesterday fine mass.

Figure 3.1-3. Contributions of PM2.5 compone nts in key bins for 4 classes of days defined by PM2.5 total mass at Louisville , KY (Class 1 =<17.5, Class 2 =17.5-25, Class 3 = 25-32.5, Class 4 = >32.5 μ g/m3) 

# CATEGORICAL COMPARISONS FOR PM2.5: HUNTINGTON/ASHLAND

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

T (deg C) YFM (μgm-3) <17.5 17.5-25 25-32.5 >=32.5

0 1 2 3 4

WS (m/s) <17.5 17.5-25 25-32.5 >=32.5

0 90 180 270 360

WD (deg) <17.5 17.5-25 25-32.5 >=32.5

0 20 40 60 80 100

RH (%) <17.5 17.5-25 25-32.5 >=32.5

*Cincinnati * Surface Characteristics: All Days (2 000-2004)/4 PM2.5 Conc. Categories ( μ gm -3)

Louisville Key PM Bins: Component Averages

0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00 24.00

1 (724) 3 (153) 10 (104) 12 (79) 2 (31) 4 (28) 15 (12) 30 (13) 17 (15) 24 (26) 25 (7) 29 (6)
Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4 Bin No. (No. of Correctly Classified Days)Avg. Conc. (μg/m3)

EC NO3 OM SO4

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 16 Figure 3.1-4. Contributions of PM2.5 compone nts in key bins for 4 classes of days defined by PM2.5 total mass at Huntingt on-Ashland, KY-WV (Class 1 =<17.5, Class 2 =17.5-25, Class 3 = 25-32.5, Class 4 = >32.5 μ g/m3)

4.0 Emissions Contributing to PM2.5 Concentrations Point source (electric utility and industry) SO2 emissions are the predominant precursors for ammonium sulfate, accounting for 96-98% of the total SO2 emissions in 2002 in the Kentucky nonattainment areas. (See Appendix E, Emissions Inventor y Summary Tables) Ground level and point sources of nitrogen oxi des and agricultural emissions of ammonia are the primary precursors for ammonium n itrate. Fossil fuel combustion and wood burning are the most important contributors to elemental carbon. Fine soil might be from construction or agricultural activities or windblown dust.

A combination of sources contribute to organic carbon mass, including wood burning, vegetative emissions, and fossil fuel com bustion by industrial point sources, on road vehicles, and non road engines, and meat cooking. Carbon isot ope studies indicated that modern sources of carbon, e.g. wood burning and vegetative emissions, are larger contributors to measured carbon than fo ssil (anthropogenic) s ources of carbon (e.g. gasoline, diesel, coal). Elev ated levels of carbon in the winter are likely due to wood burning (from forest fires, pr escribed fires, land clearing, agricultural burning, or residential, commercial or indus trial wood use). Elevated leve ls in summer are likely due to vegetative carbon emissions. Contributions from fossil fu el combustion (gasoline and diesel) are greater in urban ar eas than in rural areas.

4.1 Emissions Sensitivity Analyses To evaluate changes in PM2.5 mass loadings in response to cha nges in 2009 emissions from specific source and pollutant categories, emissions sensitivities were run using the CMAQ regional air quality model, the ASIP 2009 Base D inventory, and episodes selected in summer (Jun 1-Jul 10) and la te fall (Nov 19-Dec 19) 2002. These episodes Huntington-Ashland Key PM Bins: Component Averages

0.00 4.00 8.00 12.00 16.00 20.00

8 (243) 7 (40) 5 (22) 29 (20) 28 (20) 1 (14) 6 (11) 13 (10) 14 (10) 12 (8) 23 (9)
Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4 Bin No. (No. of Correctly Classified Days)Avg. Conc. (μg/m3)

EC NO3 OM SO4

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 17 were selected using CART analyses (see sec tion 3) to represent th e annual 2002 baseyear conditions. Emissions in 2009 for several co mbinations of pollutants and source sectors were reduced by 30 percent in separate sensitivity runs for each state in the VISTAS region and for the other RPOs in the VIST AS 12 km modeling grid. The pollutant contributions that were evaluated were:

• SO2 from Electric Generating Units (EGU) sources in each VISTAS state, other RPOs in the VISTAS 12 km grid, and Boundary Conditions from outside the 12 km domain.

• SO2 from non-EGU point sources in e ach VISTAS state, other RPOs, and Boundary Conditions

• NOx from ground level (on-road plus non-road plus area) sources in each VISTAS state and other RPOs

• NOx from point (EGU plus non-EGU) sour ces in each VISTAS state and other RPOs

• NH3 from all sources in VISTAS and other RPOs

• Volatile Organic Compounds from anth ropogenic and biogenic sources in the 12 km modeling domain

• Primary Carbon from all ground level sour ces in each VISTAS state and other RPOs

• Primary Carbon from all point sources in each VISTAS state and other RPOs

• Primary Carbon from all fires in ea ch VISTAS state and other RPOs Sensitivity results for the summer and wi nter episodes and for annual average PM2.5 (calculated using CART weighting factors for representative days in the modeled episodes) are illustrated in Figures 4.1-1 through 4.1-3 for Lo uisville, KY, in Figures 4.1- 4 through 4.1-6 for Cincinnati (Kenton Count y, KY), and in Figures 4.1-7 through 4.1-9 for Huntington-Ashland. Contributions mode led for these sites are very similar to contributions projected for other monitori ng site in the same nonattainment area.

The first observation from these data is that the responses to em issions reductions are larger in the summer than in the winter. The greatest reductions in PM2.5 mass would be accomplished by further reducing SO2 emissions from electric utilities and industrial point sources beyond 2009 levels. For the Loui sville and Cincinnati nonattainment areas, SO2 reductions from EGU in KY and the MRPO states would have th e greatest benefits. For the Huntington-Ashland area, SO2 reducti ons from KY, TN, and WV would have the greatest benefits. SO2 reductions from EGU and non-EGU in other southeastern states would also be beneficial in reducing PM2.5 in the KY nonattainment areas. The largest response to SO2 emissions reduc tions in the winter is projected from SO2 emissions outside the ASIP 12 km modeling domain (B oundary Conditions). SO2 emissions from outside the 12 km domain ar e a significant, but smaller contribution in the summer episode. This suggests that continental and/or intercontinental trans port of SO2 emissions can have impacts comparable to or greater than impacts fr om local sources of NOx or primary carbon.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 18 The model projects very little benefit to total PM2.5 of re ducing emissions of nitrogen oxides from either ground or poi nt sources in Kentucky in eith er winter or summer. In the Southeast, ammonium nitrat e levels are generally limited by availability of ammonia, so reducing ammonia emissions would be a mo re effective strategy to reduce ammonium nitrate than reducing nitrogen oxide emissions.

In both summer and winter th e model projects some benefits from reducing local sources of primary carbon from ground (on road vehicl es, off road engines, area sources) and point (industrial and electric utility) sources and from fire emissions. Ground sources of primary PM are more important in Louisville and Cincinnati than in Huntington-Ashland and more important than point sources in al l areas. Because biogenic emissions dominate Volatile Organic Carbon (VOC) emissions, th e model indicates little reduction in total PM2.5 in winter and no reduction in su mmer from reducing anthropogenic VOC emissions. In summary, SO2 reductions from electric utili ties and industrial poin t sources are likely to be most effective in reducing PM2.5 in Kentucky nonattainment areas. From the mobile sector, reductio ns of primary carbon from local sources would be more effective than reductions of either VOC or NOx.

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 19 Figures 4.1-1 and 4.1-2. CMAQ modeled res ponses to 30% reductions in 2009 emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC, and Primary Car bon from VISTAS st ates, neighboring Regional Planning Organizations, and boundary conditions for Su mmer and Winter episodes in 2002 for Louisville, KY. 

# Louisville, KY (21-111-0043) Summer

-1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20

SO

2_

E GU SO2_ nonE GU

N

Ox_Gr o und

NO

x_Po int NH3 VOCs

P C

_G

ro

und
P C _

Point
P C

_FiresΔPM2.5(μg/m3) Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

# Louisville, KY (21-111-0043) Summer

-1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20

SO

2_

E GU SO2_ nonE GU

N

Ox_Gr o und

NO

x_Po int NH3 VOCs

P C

_G

ro

und
P C _

Point
P C

_FiresΔPM2.5(μg/m3) Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL


# Louisville, KY (2 1-111-0043) Winter

-1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20

S O2 _ E G

U

S O

2_

n o n E GU

N

Ox

_G

r oun

d

N Ox _ Po

in

t NH 3 VOC s PC_Gro u nd

PC_Po i nt

P C_Fir e sΔPM2.5(μg/m3) Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

# Louisville, KY (2 1-111-0043) Winter

-1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20

S O2 _ E G

U

S O

2_

n o n E GU

N

Ox

_G

r oun

d

N Ox _ Po

in

t NH 3 VOC s PC_Gro u nd

PC_Po i nt

P C_Fir e sΔPM2.5(μg/m3) Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 20 Figures 4.1-3 and 4.1-4. CMAQ modeled res ponses to 30% reductions in 2009 emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC, and Primary Carbon from VISTAS states, neighboring RPOs, and boundary conditions for Annual Average PM2.5 for Louisville, KY and Summer episode for Kenton Co, KY (Cinci nnati nonattainment area). 

# Louisville, KY (2-1111-0043) Annual

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

SO2 _ EGU SO2_ no

n EGU NO

x _Gro u nd

NOx_ P oint NH3 VOCs

P C_

G

ro

u nd

PC _ Point
P C_

Fi

resΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

# Louisville, KY (2-1111-0043) Annual

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

SO2 _ EGU SO2_ no

n EGU NO

x _Gro u nd

NOx_ P oint NH3 VOCs

P C_

G

ro

u nd

PC _ Point
P C_

Fi

resΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL


# Kenton Co., KY (Cincinnat i) (21-117-0007) Summer

-1.40

0.20

SO2 _ EGU SO

2_no nEG U NOx_Ground NOx_Point NH3 VOCs PC_Ground PC_Poi nt

PC

_Fi

r e s 

### -1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

# Kenton Co., KY (Cincinnat i) (21-117-0007) Summer

-1.40

0.20

SO2 _ EGU SO

2_no nEG U NOx_Ground NOx_Point NH3 VOCs PC_Ground PC_Poi nt

PC

_Fi

r e s 

### -1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### -1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 21 Figures 4.1-5 and 4.1-6. CMAQ modeled res ponses to 30% reductions in 2009 emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC, and Primary Carbon from VISTAS states, neighboring RPOs, and boundary conditions for Winter 2002 for Kenton Co, KY (Cincinnati nonattainment area) and Summer 2002 for Boyd Co, KY (Hun tington-Ashland nonattainment area). SO2_EGU SO2_ n onEG U

N

Ox_ G

round

N

Ox_ Poin t NH3 VOC s PC _ G

roun d

PC _ Poi

nt

PC _ Fi

r e s 

### -1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

# Kenton Co., KY (Cincinnati) (21-117-0007) Winter

SO2_EGU SO2_ n onEG U

N

Ox_ G

round

N

Ox_ Poin t NH3 VOC s PC _ G

roun d

PC _ Poi

nt

PC _ Fi

r e s 

### -1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### -1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

# Kenton Co., KY (Cincinnati) (21-117-0007) Winter



# Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV (21-019-0017) Summer

0.20

SO2_EG U SO2_nonEGU NOx _ Gro u nd

NO

x_

Poi

nt N H3 VOCs PC _ Gro und PC_Point PC _ Fire s 

### -1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

# Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV (21-019-0017) Summer

0.20

SO2_EG U SO2_nonEGU NOx _ Gro u nd

NO

x_

Poi

nt N H3 VOCs PC _ Gro und PC_Point PC _ Fire s 

### -1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### -1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 22 Figures 4.1-7 and 4.1-8. CMAQ modeled res ponses to 30% reductions in 2009 emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC, and Primary Carbon from VISTAS states, neighboring RPOs, and boundary conditions for Winter 2002 a nd Annual Average PM2.5 for Boyd Co, KY (Huntington-Ashland nona ttainment area). 

## Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV ( 

## 21-019-0017 ) Winter

SO

2 _

EG

U SO2_nonEGU

N

O

x _

G

r ound NO

x _

Po

i n t N H3 VOC s

P C_Gr o und PC _ Po

i n t

P C_

F ires 

### -1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

## Huntington-Ashland, KY-OH-WV ( 

## 21-019-0017 ) Winter

SO

2 _

EG

U SO2_nonEGU

N

O

x _

G

r ound NO

x _

Po

i n t N H3 VOC s

P C_Gr o und PC _ Po

i n t

P C_

F ires 

### -1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### -1.40
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

# Huntington-Ashland, KY-O H-WV (21-019-0017) Annual

S O2

_EGU

SO2 _ nonEG U NOx_ G

round NOx_Point N H 3 V O

Cs PC

_Gro un

d

PC

_Po int PC_ Fire s 

### -1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL 

# Huntington-Ashland, KY-O H-WV (21-019-0017) Annual

S O2

_EGU

SO2 _ nonEG U NOx_ G

round NOx_Point N H 3 V O

Cs PC

_Gro un

d

PC

_Po int PC_ Fire s 

### -1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### -1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20ΔPM2.5(μg/m3) 

### Bio. VOC Anthro. VOC BCs MRPO MANE-VU CENRAP VISTAS WV VA TN SC NC MS KY GA FL AL

### Kentucky Conceptual Description April 15, 2008 

## 23 5.0 Summary In summary, sulfate and partic ulate organic matter are the most important contributors to PM2.5 in the Kentucky nonattainment areas. PM2.5 composition and mass are similar across the monitoring sites. Sulfate and carbon can be elevated due to contributions from local sources. Emissions sensitivity result s demonstrate the greates t benefits in reducing PM2.5 from further reducing SO2 emissions fr om electric utilities and industrial point sources. Benefits of reducing primar y carbon emissions from ground sources are projected to be greater than reducing primary carbon from point sources, however this does not consider the difficulty in implementing controls for mobile versus point sources. Reducing regional emissions of ammonia is projecte d to reduce wintertime ni trate levels.