U.S. Census Bureau 1

THE NEXT FOUR DECADES

The Older Population in the United States: 

2010 to 2050

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Issued May 2010

P25-1138

1 In this report, the “older population” refers to 

those aged 65 and older. 2 This report discusses data for the United States, 

including the 50 states and the District of Columbia; 

it does not include data for Puerto Rico. 3 The baby boomer generation consists of people 

born between 1946 and 1964.

Current 

Population

Reports

By

Grayson K. Vincent

and

Victoria A. Velkoff

Population Estimates and Projections

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this report is to present 

information on how the age structure of 

the overall population and the composition of the older population in terms of 

age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin are 

expected to change over the next four 

decades.1

Between 2010 and 2050, the United 

States is projected to experience rapid 

growth in its older population.2 In 2050, 

the number of Americans aged 65 and 

older is projected to be 88.5 million, 

more than double its projected population of 40.2 million in 2010. The baby 

boomers are largely responsible for this 

increase in the older population, as they 

will begin crossing into this category in 

2011.3 

The aging of the population will have 

wide-ranging implications for the country. As the United States ages over the 

next several decades, its older population will become more racially and 

ethnically diverse. Projecting the size and 

structure, in terms of age, sex, race, and 

Hispanic origin, of the older population is 

important to public and private interests, 

both socially and economically. The projected growth of the older population in 

the United States will present challenges 

to policy makers and programs, such as 

Social Security and Medicare. It will also 

affect families, businesses, and health 

care providers. 

2008 NATIONAL POPULATION 

PROJECTIONS

Released in August of 2008, the national 

population projections are of the resident population, as well as demographic 

components of change (births, deaths, 

and net international migration), by age, 

sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The projections are based on Census 2000 and 

were produced using a cohort-component 

method. The components of change were 

projected into the future based on past 

trends. The projections cover the period 

2000–2050.

Between 2010 and 2050, the U.S. population is projected to grow from 310 million 

to 439 million, an increase of 42 percent. 

The nation will also become more racially 

and ethnically diverse, with the aggregate 

minority population projected to become 

the majority in 2042.* The population is 

also expected to become much older, with 

nearly one in five U.S. residents aged 65 

and older in 2030.

The 2008 National Population Projections, 

including summary tables, downloadable 

files, methodology and assumptions, and 

the press release, can be found at

<www.census.gov/population/www

/projections/2008projections.html>.

* In this report, the minority population is considered to be everyone other than the non-Hispanic White 

alone population.
2 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 1.

Age and Sex Structure of the Population for the United States: 2010, 2030, and 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.

Male Female 2010

2030

2050

3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100+

Millions Millions

Age
U.S. Census Bureau 3

CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE

The age structure of the overall 

population is projected to change 

greatly over the next four decades 

(Figure 1). Much of this change is 

driven by the aging baby boomers 

and trends in immigration. 

Figure 1 illustrates the importance 

of the baby boom generation in 

shaping the overall population. In 

2010, the baby boom generation 

will be 46 to 64 years old.4 The echo 

of the baby boom is also evident in 

the 2010 population pyramid for the 

age groups near 20.5 By 2030, all of 

the baby boomers will have moved 

into the ranks of the older population. This will result in a shift in the 

age structure, from 13 percent of 

the population aged 65 and older in 

2010 to 19 percent in 2030.

In 2010, 60 percent of the U.S. 

population will be aged 20–64. 

By 2030, as the baby boomers age, 

the proportion in these working 

ages will drop to 55 percent.

Immigration is expected to play an 

important role in how the age structure of the United States changes 

over the next four decades. The 

aging of the baby boom increases 

the proportion in the older age 

groups, but projected immigration into the working age groups 

tends to mitigate the impact. In 

other words, the country’s aging is 

slowed somewhat by immigration 

of younger people.

In 2050, every age group is projected to be larger than it was in 

2010. This is not the case between 

2010 and 2030 or between 2030 

and 2050. For instance, the number 

of men aged 50–56 and the number 

of women aged 46–56 in 2030 are 

projected to be smaller than those 

in the same age groups in 2010 

(Figure 1). This is because large 

cohorts of baby boomers will be in 

these age groups in 2010 and by 

2030, younger and smaller cohorts 

will have replaced them. Similarly, 

the number of women aged 72–75 

is projected to be smaller in 2050 

than it was in 2030 as the smaller 

than average birth cohort born in 

the late 1970s moves into these 

age groups.

The number of people in the oldestold age group is projected to grow 

from 5.8 million in 2010 to 8.7 million in 2030.6 In 2050, this group is 

projected to reach 19 million. Even 

as they approach the oldest old, the 

baby boomers will continue to have 

an impact on the age structure of 

the U.S. population. In 2050, those 

aged 85 and over are projected to 

account for 4.3 percent of the U.S. 

population, up from 2.3 percent in 

2030.

Another way to examine the changing age structure of the population 

is to look at dependency ratios. 

Dependency ratios are an indicator 

of the potential burden on those in 

the working-age population. The 

total dependency ratio is projected 

to increase from 67 to 85 between 

2010 and 2050, the result of a large 

increase in the old-age dependency 

ratio (Figure 2). The old-age dependency ratio sees a rapid increase 

between 2010 and 2030, from 22 to 

35, as all of the baby boomers move 

into the 65 years and over category. 

4 The data shown in Figure 1 represent a 

July 1 population, and because the baby boom 

began roughly in July 1946, the start of the 

baby boom is seen for age 63 rather than age 

64, as would be suggested by the difference 

in the years 1946–2010 (Hogan, Perez, and 

Bell, 2008, Who (Really) Are the First Baby 

Boomers?, In JSM Proceedings, Social Statistics 

Section, Alexandria, VA: American Statistical 

Association, pp. 1009–1016). 5 The echo of the baby boomers refers to 

the children born to baby boomers. 

6 In this report, the term “oldest old” refers 

to those aged 85 and older. 

Figure 2.

Dependency Ratios for the United States: 

2010 to 2050

Note: Total dependency = ((Population under age 20 + Population aged 65 years and over) 

 / (Population aged 20 to 64 years )) * 100.

Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 years and over

 / Population aged 20 to 64 years) * 100.

Youth dependency = (Population under age 20 / Population aged 20 to 64 years) * 100.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.

Youth dependency

Old-age dependency

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

22

28

35 37 37

67

74

83 85 85

45 46 48 48 48
4 U.S. Census Bureau

After 2030, the old-age dependency 

ratio continues to increase slightly 

to 37 by 2050. The youth dependency ratio increases minimally 

between 2010 and 2030, from 45 to 

48, and remains stable until 2050. 

CHANGING AGE STRUCTURE 

WITHIN THE OLDER 

POPULATION

The age composition within the 

older ages is projected to change 

between 2010 and 2050. As the 

baby boomers move into the older 

age groups, beginning in 2011, the 

proportion aged 65–74 is projected 

to increase (Figure 3). The majority 

of the country’s older population 

is projected to be relatively young, 

aged 65–74, until around 2034, 

when all of the baby boomers will be 

over 70. As the baby boomers move 

into the oldest-old age category, the 

age composition of the older population shifts upward. In 2010, slightly 

more than 14 percent of the older 

population will be 85 and older. By 

2050, that proportion is expected 

to increase to more than 21 percent. 

7 Race and Hispanic origin are collected according to the Office of Management and Budget 

(OMB) 1997 guidelines. For further information, 

see Revisions to the Standards for the Classification of Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity at 

<www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg

/1997standards.html>. Race and Hispanic origin 

are treated as two separate and distinct concepts in the federal statistical system. People in 

each race group may be either Hispanic or nonHispanic, and people of Hispanic origin may be 

any race. This report contains projections data 

for each of five racial categories (White, Black, 

American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, and 

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander) for 

the population in the race alone categories and 

the population that is a race group alone or in 

combination with other races. Data for the alone 

or in combination groups appear in Table A-2. 

All other sections of the report refer to each of 

the races alone and use the Two or More Races 

category to represent the population reporting 

more than one race.

The aging of the older population is 

noteworthy, as those in the oldest 

ages often require additional care 

giving and support (see Table A-1 

for more detailed data on the age 

distribution).

RACE AND HISPANIC 

ORIGIN7

While the older population is not as 

racially and ethnically diverse as the 

younger population, it is projected 

to substantially increase its racial 

and ethnic diversity over the next 

four decades. Additionally, while all 

of the race and ethnic groups will 

become older, the degree of aging 

that is projected to occur within 

each group varies greatly.

In terms of race, the share of the 

population that is White alone is 

projected to decrease by about 10 

percentage points among those 

65 years and over and by about 

9 percentage points among those 

85 years and over between 2010 

and 2050. Meanwhile, all other 

race groups are projected to see 

an increase in their shares of these 

populations. The 85 years and over 

population is less racially diverse 

than the 65 years and older population, but it is projected to see a 

similar increase in diversity between 

2010 and 2050.

Although the older population is 

not expected to become majorityminority in the next four decades, 

it is projected to be 42 percent 

minority in 2050, up from 20 percent in 2010. Among the 85 years 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Figure 3.

Distribution of the Projected Older Population by Age for the United States: 

2010 to 2050

Note: Line indicates the year that each age group is the largest proportion of the older population. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.

Percent

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over
U.S. Census Bureau 5

and over population, 33 percent 

are projected to be minority in 

2050, up from 15 percent in 2010.

Among those aged 65 and over in 

2050, 77 percent are projected to 

be White alone, down from 87 percent in 2010. Within the same age 

group, 12 percent are projected 

to be Black alone and 9 percent 

are projected to be Asian alone 

in 2050, up from 9 percent and 

3 percent, respectively, in 2010 

(Figure 4). 

The smallest race groups are projected to see large growth relative 

to their populations. Among the 

population aged 65 and older in 

2050, the American Indian and 

Alaska Native alone population is 

projected to be 918,000, up from 

235,000 in 2010, and the Native 

Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 

alone population is projected to be 

219,000, up from 39,000 in 2010. 

The Two or More Races population is 

also projected to see relatively large 

growth among people in this age 

group, increasing from 278,000 in 

2010 to 1.3 million in 2050. 

Among those aged 85 and over in 

2050, 81 percent are projected to be 

White alone, down from 90 percent 

in 2010. Within the same age group, 

10 percent are projected to be Black 

alone and 6 percent are projected to 

be Asian alone in 2050, up from 7 

percent and 2 percent, respectively, 

in 2010 (Table 1). 

As with the 65 years and older 

group, the smallest race groups 

are projected to see large relative 

increases in the 85 years and older 

age group. Among those 85 years 

and older in 2050, the American 

Indian and Alaska Native alone 

population is projected to reach 

180,000, up from 20,000 in 2010, 

and the Native Hawaiian and Other 

Pacific Islander alone population 

is projected to be 35,000, up from 

3,000 in 2010. The Two or More 

Races oldest-old population is also 

projected to see a relatively large 

increase, from 29,000 in 2010 to 

208,000 in 2050.

The proportion of the older population that is Hispanic is projected to 

increase quickly over the next four 

decades. In 2050, 20 percent of 

the population aged 65 and over is 

projected to be Hispanic, up from 

7 percent in 2010 (Figure 5). The 

Figure 4.

Projected Population Aged 65 and Over by Race for the United States: 2010 to 2050

Note: Unless otherwise specified, data refer to the population who reported a race alone. Populations for each race group include both 

Hispanics and non-Hispanics, as Hispanics may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.

Millions

Two or 

More 

Races

Native Hawaiian

and Other

Pacific Islander

American Indian Asian

and Alaska

Native

White Black

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
6 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 5.

Percent Hispanic for the Older Population by Selected Age Groups for the 

United States: 2010 to 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.

85 years and over

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

7.1

9.2

12.0

16.2

19.8

5.3

8.1

9.9

11.6

15.1

65 years and over 85 years and over

proportion of the oldest-old population that is Hispanic is also projected 

to increase by about 10 percentage 

points between 2010 and 2050.

In 2050, the non-Hispanic population aged 65 and older is projected 

to reach 71 million, up from 37.4 

million in 2010, almost doubling. 

In comparison, the Hispanic population aged 65 years and older is 

projected to grow from 2.9 million 

to 17.5 million, a more than sixfold 

increase. 

The 85 years and over population is 

projected to be 15 percent Hispanic 

in 2050, up from 5 percent in 2010 

(Figure 5). The non-Hispanic population aged 85 and older is projected 

to nearly triple, from 5.5 million 

in 2010 to 16.2 million in 2050. In 

contrast, during this time period, 

the Hispanic population in this age 

group is projected to increase more 

than ninefold, from 305,000 to 

2.9 million (see Table A-2 for more 

detailed data on race and Hispanic 

origin).

Although each race and ethnic 

group is projected to increase in the 

proportion aged 65 and over 

between 2010 and 2050, the 

percent 65 and over varies by race 

and Hispanic origin. Some groups 

Table 1. 

Projections and Distribution of the Population Aged 85 and Over by Race for the 

United States: 2010, 2030, and 2050

(Numbers in thousands)

Race

2010 2030 2050

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

 85 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,751 100.0 8,745 100.0 19,041 100.0

White alone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,189 90.2 7,542 86.2 15,491 81.4

Black alone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 6.9 701 8.0 1,982 10.4

American Indian and Alaska Native alone . . . . . . . . . . 20 0.4 62 0.7 180 0.9

Asian alone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 2.0 356 4.1 1,145 6.0

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone . . . . 3 0.1 11 0.1 35 0.2

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 0.5 74 0.8 208 1.1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.
U.S. Census Bureau 7

Figure 6.

Percent Aged 65 and Over by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 

2010, 2030, and 2050

Note: Unless otherwise specified, data refer to the population who reported a race alone. Populations for each race group include both 

Hispanics and non-Hispanics, unless otherwise specified. Hispanics may be of any race.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.

Hispanic

2010

2030

2050

13.0

19.3

20.2

14.2

20.7

21.0

16.1

24.8

25.5

8.6

15.2

18.5

7.4

14.5

16.8

9.3

16.5

21.9

5.7

10.0

13.2

6.5

13.2

17.9

5.1

7.2

7.8

Total

White

Non-Hispanic White

Black

American Indian and

Alaska Native

Asian

Native Hawaiian and

Other Pacific Islander

Two or More Races

will see increases of nearly 13 percentage points, while others will see 

increases of less than 3 percentage 

points.

The non-Hispanic White alone 

population is the oldest with 16 

percent of its population aged 65 

and over in 2010. By 2030, nearly 

one quarter of non-Hispanic Whites 

are projected to be aged 65 and 

over (Figure 6). At the opposite end 

of the spectrum, the Two or More 

Races population will continue to be 

the youngest population, with only 
8 U.S. Census Bureau

a slight increase in the percentage 

of its population aged 65 and older, 

from 5.1 percent in 2010 to 7.8 

percent in 2050. While the percent 

aged 65 and over will more than 

double for the Hispanic population 

between 2010 and 2050, it will continue to be a relatively young population with 13 percent aged 65 and 

older in 2050. This is comparable 

to the percent aged 65 and over for 

the total population in 2010. Two 

groups that see large increases in 

the proportion older in their populations are the Asian alone and the 

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific 

Islander alone groups. By 2050, 22 

percent of the Asian alone population is projected to be aged 65 and 

over making it the second oldest 

category. The Native Hawaiian and 

Other Pacific Islander alone population is expected to jump from 6.5 

percent aged 65 and over in 2010 

to 18 percent in 2050.

SEX RATIOS

Female life expectancy has long 

exceeded male life expectancy, 

resulting in women outnumbering 

men in the older age groups. While 

that trend is projected to continue 

over the next four decades, the 

gap between the number of women 

and men is expected to narrow. 

This narrowing is due to the more 

rapid increase in life expectancy for 

men that is projected over the next 

several decades. Among those 65 

years and over in 2050, 55 percent 

are projected to be female, down 

from 57 percent in 2010 (Figure 7). 

This decline in the female share, 

or increase in male share, of the 

population is even more dramatic 

among the oldest old. Among those 

85 years and over, 61 percent are 

projected to be female in 2050, 

down 6 percentage points from 67 

in 2010 (see Table A-3 for more 

detailed data on the sex distribution). The changing sex ratios at the 

older ages may have implications 

on the social and economic wellbeing of the older population. One 

implication would be on marital status and living arrangements of the 

older population. The changing sex 

ratios could also have an impact on 

the types of care that are available 

to the older population.

CONCLUSION

The population in the United States 

is projected to grow older over 

the next several decades. Much of 

this aging is due to the baby boom 

generation moving into the ranks 

of the 65 and older population. As 

the U.S. population grows older, the 

racial and ethnic composition of the 

older population is also expected 

to change. We expect to see an 

increase in the proportion of the 

older population that is Hispanic 

and an increase in the proportion 

that is a race other than White. As 

Figure 7.

Percent Female for the Older Population by Age for 

the United States: 2010, 2030, and 2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.

57

55 55 54 53 52

58

56 55

67

62 61

65 years and over 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over

2010 2030 2050
U.S. Census Bureau 9

we near 2050, we expect that the 

oldest age categories will grow in 

terms of numbers and proportions. 

This changing age structure of the 

population will have an impact on 

both families and society.

DATA SOURCE AND 

METHODOLOGY

This report uses projections of the 

total U.S. population as of July 1 for 

the years 2000–2050. The universe 

is the resident population of the 

United States (50 states and the 

District of Columbia). The projections are based on Census 2000 

and were produced using a cohortcomponent method, which uses the 

components of population change 

(births, deaths, and net international migration) to project forward. 

The assumptions for the components of change are based on time 

series analysis. Historical mortality 

trends were calculated using the 

National Center for Health Statistics’ 

data on deaths and the U.S. Census 

Bureau’s population estimates for 

1984–2003. Fertility trends were 

calculated using the National Center 

for Health Statistics’ births data 

and Census Bureau estimates of the 

female population. The time series 

included data from 1980 to 2003. 

Trends in net international migration were primarily based on data 

from the Immigration and

Naturalization Service and the 

Department of Homeland Security 

on persons obtaining legal permanent residence, as well as Census 

Bureau population estimates for 

1972–2002.

The methodology used to produce 

the projections used in this report is 

available at <www.census.gov

/population/www/projections

/methodstatement.html#_ftn1>.

All derived values were computed 

using unrounded data. In the text, 

figures, and tables, most whole 

numbers were rounded to the nearest thousand or million and most 

decimal numbers were rounded to 

the nearest tenth or whole number.

DATA ACCURACY

These projections are based on 

Census 2000 and may, therefore, 

contain nonsampling error due to 

potential enumeration errors such 

as differential undercoverage or 

overcoverage by demographic characteristics. Technical documentation for Census 2000 is available at 

<www.census.gov/prod/cen2000

/doc/sf1.pdf>. Nonsampling error 

also exists as the assumptions for 

the components of change were 

based on time series analysis. 

Future changes in policy or other 

factors that might influence levels 

of the population components and 

their directions cannot be predicted. 

Thus if actual trends or levels in 

fertility, mortality, or international 

migration differ radically from the 

assumed trends and levels, the 

projected population will be less 

accurate.

SUGGESTED CITATION

Vincent, Grayson K. and Victoria 

A. Velkoff, 2010, THE NEXT FOUR 

DECADES, The Older Population in 

the United States: 2010 to 2050, 

Current Population Reports,

P25-1138, U.S. Census Bureau, 

Washington, DC.

CONTACTS

U.S. Census Bureau

Demographic Call Center Staff

301-763-2422 or 1-866-758-1060 

(toll-free) or visit <ask.census.gov> 

for further information.

Population Projections Branch

301-763-2428

USER COMMENTS

The Census Bureau welcomes the 

comments and advice of users of 

our data and reports. Please send 

suggestions or comments to:

Chief, Population Division

U.S. Census Bureau

Washington, DC 20233-8800
10 U.S. Census Bureau

Appendix Table A-1. 

Projections and Distribution of the Total Population by Age for the United States:

2010 to 2050

(Numbers in thousands)

Age 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

NUMBER

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310,233 341,387 373,504 405,655 439,010

Under 20 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84,150 90,703 97,682 104,616 112,940

20 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185,854 195,880 203,729 219,801 237,523

65 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40,229 54,804 72,092 81,238 88,547

65 to 69 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,261 17,861 20,381 18,989 21,543

70 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9,202 14,452 18,404 17,906 18,570

75 to 79 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,282 9,656 14,390 16,771 15,964

80 to 84 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,733 6,239 10,173 13,375 13,429

85 to 89 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,650 3,817 5,383 8,450 10,303

90 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,101 2,780 3,362 5,748 8,738

PERCENT

 Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Under 20 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.7

20 to 64 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59.9 57.4 54.5 54.2 54.1

65 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.0 16.1 19.3 20.0 20.2

65 to 69 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0 5.2 5.5 4.7 4.9

70 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.2 4.9 4.4 4.2

75 to 79 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 2.8 3.9 4.1 3.6

80 to 84 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8 1.8 2.7 3.3 3.1

85 to 89 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.3

90 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.4 2.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.
U.S. Census Bureau 11

Appendix Table A-2. 

Projections and Distribution of the Older Population by Selected Age Group, Race, and 

Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2010 to 2050—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Age, race, and Hispanic origin 1 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

NUMBER

 65 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40,229 54,804 72,092 81,238 88,547

One race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39,951 54,338 71,385 80,316 87,287

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34,926 46,347 59,363 64,710 68,055

 Non-Hispanic White ....................... 32,243 41,667 51,334 52,469 51,772

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,418 5,072 7,395 8,949 10,553

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 235 411 627 769 918

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,333 2,438 3,882 5,722 7,541

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 39 71 117 166 219

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 467 707 923 1,260

Race alone or in combination:2

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35,155 46,724 59,930 65,447 69,078

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,482 5,185 7,577 9,214 10,960

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 410 693 1,011 1,185 1,396

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,412 2,582 4,135 6,103 8,096

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 73 131 214 298 397

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,858 5,019 8,631 13,150 17,515

 65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,463 32,312 38,784 36,895 40,113

One race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21,294 32,017 38,380 36,429 39,436

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,312 26,893 31,315 28,409 29,931

 Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16,735 23,981 26,451 21,651 21,854

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,975 3,232 4,379 4,407 5,170

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 148 265 362 366 446

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 833 1,581 2,254 3,159 3,778

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 25 46 70 89 111

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168 296 404 466 677

Race alone or in combination:2

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,451 27,130 31,639 28,783 30,489

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,014 3,305 4,485 4,551 5,402

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 255 441 565 543 677

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 881 1,675 2,409 3,369 4,080

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 46 83 126 155 202

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,685 3,133 5,230 7,252 8,698

 75 to 84 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,015 15,895 24,563 30,145 29,393

One race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12,934 15,768 24,334 29,828 29,018

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,424 13,631 20,506 24,393 22,633

 Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10,607 12,362 18,151 20,437 17,093

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,046 1,341 2,316 3,256 3,402

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 66 112 204 284 293

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387 665 1,272 1,839 2,618

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 11 19 36 56 72

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 127 228 318 375

Race alone or in combination:2

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11,491 13,735 20,690 24,647 22,934

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,064 1,370 2,372 3,340 3,519

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 116 191 339 442 434

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410 702 1,346 1,963 2,788

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 21 35 66 100 126

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 868 1,355 2,534 4,254 5,945

See footnotes at end of table.
12 U.S. Census Bureau

Appendix Table A-2. 

Projections and Distribution of the Older Population by Selected Age Group, Race, and 

Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2010 to 2050—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Age, race, and Hispanic origin 1 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 85 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,751 6,597 8,745 14,198 19,041

One race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,722 6,553 8,671 14,059 18,833

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,189 5,823 7,542 11,908 15,491

 Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,902 5,324 6,731 10,381 12,825

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 499 701 1,287 1,982

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 20 34 62 119 180

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 191 356 724 1,145

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 3 6 11 21 35

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 44 74 139 208

Race alone or in combination:2

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,213 5,859 7,601 12,017 15,655

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404 510 720 1,323 2,039

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 39 61 108 201 285

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 205 379 772 1,228

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 7 12 22 43 69

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 531 868 1,645 2,871

PERCENT

 65 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

One race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.3 99.1 99.0 98.9 98.6

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86.8 84.6 82.3 79.7 76.9

 Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80.2 76.0 71.2 64.6 58.5

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.5 9.3 10.3 11.0 11.9

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 4.4 5.4 7.0 8.5

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4

Race alone or in combination:2

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.4 85.3 83.1 80.6 78.0

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.7 9.5 10.5 11.3 12.4

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 4.7 5.7 7.5 9.1

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 9.2 12.0 16.2 19.8

 65 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

One race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.2 99.1 99.0 98.7 98.3

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85.3 83.2 80.7 77.0 74.6

 Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78.0 74.2 68.2 58.7 54.5

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 10.0 11.3 11.9 12.9

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.9 4.9 5.8 8.6 9.4

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.7

Race alone or in combination:2

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86.0 84.0 81.6 78.0 76.0

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4 10.2 11.6 12.3 13.5

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 5.2 6.2 9.1 10.2

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9 9.7 13.5 19.7 21.7

See footnotes at end of table.
U.S. Census Bureau 13

Appendix Table A-2. 

Projections and Distribution of the Older Population by Selected Age Group, Race, and 

Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2010 to 2050—Con.

(Numbers in thousands)

Age, race, and Hispanic origin 1 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 75 to 84 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

One race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.4 99.2 99.1 98.9 98.7

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87.8 85.8 83.5 80.9 77.0

 Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.5 77.8 73.9 67.8 58.2

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.0 8.4 9.4 10.8 11.6

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.2 5.2 6.1 8.9

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3

Race alone or in combination:2

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.3 86.4 84.2 81.8 78.0

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 8.6 9.7 11.1 12.0

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 4.4 5.5 6.5 9.5

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7 8.5 10.3 14.1 20.2

 85 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

One race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99.5 99.3 99.2 99.0 98.9

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.2 88.3 86.2 83.9 81.4

 Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85.2 80.7 77.0 73.1 67.4

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9 7.6 8.0 9.1 10.4

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0 2.9 4.1 5.1 6.0

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1

Race alone or in combination:2

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90.6 88.8 86.9 84.6 82.2

Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.0 7.7 8.2 9.3 10.7

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 3.1 4.3 5.4 6.4

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 8.1 9.9 11.6 15.1

1

 Hispanics may be of any race.

2

 In combination means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population, and 100 percent, 

because individuals may report more than one race.

Note: The original race data from Census 2000 are modified to eliminate the “Some Other Race” category. This modification is used for all Census Bureau projections products. For more information see <www.census.gov/popest/archives/files/MRSF-01-US1.html>.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.
14 U.S. Census Bureau

Appendix Table A-3. 

Projections of the Older Population by Selected Age Group and Sex, and Sex Ratios for 

the United States: 2010 to 2050

(Numbers in thousands)

Sex, age, and sex ratios 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MALE

 65 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,292 24,323 32,294 36,396 39,917

65 to 69 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,747 8,412 9,665 9,090 10,380

70 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,191 6,660 8,529 8,406 8,782

75 to 79 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,159 4,285 6,452 7,610 7,345

80 to 84 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,302 2,622 4,363 5,810 5,952

85 to 89 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,297 1,466 2,144 3,437 4,282

90 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 596 878 1,140 2,044 3,176

FEMALE

 65 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22,937 30,481 39,798 44,842 48,630

65 to 69 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,514 9,449 10,715 9,899 11,163

70 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,011 7,791 9,875 9,500 9,788

75 to 79 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,123 5,371 7,937 9,161 8,619

80 to 84 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,431 3,618 5,810 7,565 7,477

85 to 89 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,353 2,351 3,239 5,013 6,021

90 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,506 1,902 2,222 3,703 5,562

SEX RATIO1

 65 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75.4 79.8 81.1 81.2 82.1

65 to 69 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88.2 89.0 90.2 91.8 93.0

70 to 74 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83.6 85.5 86.4 88.5 89.7

75 to 79 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76.6 79.8 81.3 83.1 85.2

80 to 84 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67.1 72.5 75.1 76.8 79.6

85 to 89 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55.1 62.4 66.2 68.6 71.1

90 years and over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39.5 46.2 51.3 55.2 57.1

1 Sex ratios are equal to the number of men per hundred women.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008.

16 U.S. Census Bureau

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