Chapter 3Chapter 3Chapter 3Statewide Emission Trends and ForecastsFile 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 112/16/2013 3:07:58 PMChapter 3Chapter 3ARB Almanac 2013 – Chapter 3: Statewide Emission Trends and Forecasts3-2IntroductionEmission Trends and ForecastsThe most current emissions data available are for 2012. Included arethe latest point source estimates provided by districts as well as inventory improvements from recent SIPs. Any data prior to this year arederived from historical emissions data where available, and backcasted emissions based on historical socioeconomic growth and controlinformation. Future year estimates are forecasted from the 2012 baseyear and control measures reported through June 2013. Forecaststake into account emissions data, projected growth rates, and futureadopted control measures to estimate emissions in future years.On a statewide basis, emissions of NOxare forecasted to declinebetween 2000 and 2035. Emissions of VOC are forecasted to decreasethrough 2025 with a slight increase after 2025. In addition to beingozone precursors, both NOxand VOC contribute to secondary PM10and PM2.5. Direct PM10and PM2.5emissions show a decrease from2000 to 2015, and are predicted to increase slightly after 2015.Emissions of DPM are forecasted to decline through 2020, remainingrelatively constant thereafter.Statewide SOxemissions decreased overall from 2000 through 2035.Statewide NH3emissions are expected to slowly increase from 2000to 2035.SIP and transportation conformity inventory forecasts may differ from the forecasts presented in this almanac. For more information on these forecasts, please see the ARB SIP web page atwww.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm.Statewide Emissions (tons/day, annual average)Pollutant 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035VOC29022261 1943 1624 1561 1554 1568 1574NOX3782 3214 2324 1887 1553 1312 1224 1200SOX289 287 123 78 82 88 94 101DPM86 88 54 31 25 23 23 25PM2.5661 524 447 410 414 419 434 441PM102436 1700 1549 1491 1525 1544 1572 1590NH3730 741 752 719 742 770 776 779Table 3-1File 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 212/16/2013 3:08:05 PMChapter 3Chapter 3ARB Almanac 2013 – Chapter 3: Statewide Emission Trends and Forecasts3-3-100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100Percent Change 1992-2011Figure 3-1Statewide Population and VMTAirborne pollutants result in large part from human activities, andgrowth generally has a negative impact on air quality. California isfortunate in that it boasts the world’s most progressive emission controls. These controls have resulted in significant air quality improvements, despite substantial growth.During 1992 through 2011, statewide maximum 8-hour ozone valuesdecreased 38 percent. This air quality improvement occurred at thesame time the State’s population increased 21 percent and the average daily VMT increased 41 percent. Ambient annual average PM2.5values in the non-desert areas also show improvement: a 32 percentdecrease from 1999 to 2011. While the air quality improvementsare impressive, additional emission controls will be needed to offsetfuture growth.PM2.5OzonePopulationVMTPercent Change in Air Quality and GrowthTable 3-2PM2.5percentage reflects from 1999 to 2011.Statewide Population and VMT TrendsParameter1990199520002005201020152020202520302035Population29828496 31711849 34000835 35985582 37309382 38801063 40643643 42451760 44279354 46083482Avg. Daily VMT/1000 655348 726101 813292 892024 953029 1013538 1079011 1138889 1200801 1260425File 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 312/16/2013 3:08:05 PMChapter 3Chapter 3ARB Almanac 2013 – Chapter 3: Statewide Emission Trends and Forecasts3-4Emission Trends and Forecasts - NOxNOxemission standards for on-road motor vehicles were introducedin 1971, followed in later years by the implementation of increasingly more stringent standards and the introduction of three-waycatalysts. NOxemissions from on-road motor vehicles have declinedby 42 percent from 2000 to 2010. NOxemissions are projected tofurther decrease by 73 percent between 2010 and 2035. This occursas vehicles meeting more stringent emission standards enter the fleet,and all vehicles use cleaner burning gasoline and diesel fuel or alternative fuels.NOx emissions from other mobile categories on the whole are projected to decrease from 2000 to 2035. The two largest NOxcontributors in the other mobile category are off-road equipment and ships.Stationary source NOxemissions are estimated to drop by 51 percentbetween 2000 and 2015. This decrease has been largely due to aswitch from fuel oil to natural gas and the implementation of combustion controls such as low-NOxburners for boilers and catalytic converters for both external and internal combustion stationary sources.For additional information on these forecasts, please refer to the ARBSIP web page atwww.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm.Figure 3-2050010001500200025003000350040002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Annual Average (tons/day)Statewide NOXEmission TrendsStationary SourcesArea-wide SourcesOn-Road MobileOther MobileNOXEmission Trends (tons/day, annual average)Emission Source2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035All Sources37823214 2324 1887 1553 1312 1224 1200Stationary Sources584 402 313 288 291 297 303 310Area-wide Sources96 85 75 74 74 73 75 75On-Road Mobile2097 1769 1210 808 545 389 345 328Gasoline Vehicles1098 681 489 313 211 153 119 94Diesel Vehicles999 1088 721 496 333 235 226 235Other Mobile1006958725 717 643 553 502 487Gasoline Fuel62 62 47 42 40 39 39 40Diesel Fuel867 826 613 608 532 441 389 372Other Fuel77 70 65 66 72 73 73 74Table 3-3File 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 412/16/2013 3:08:05 PMChapter 3Chapter 3ARB Almanac 2013 – Chapter 3: Statewide Emission Trends and Forecasts3-5Emission Trends and Forecasts - VOCsVOC emissions in California are projected to decrease by about 46percent between 2000 and 2035, largely as a result of the State’s onroad motor vehicle emission control program. This includes the useof improved evaporative emission control systems, computerized fuelinjection, engine management systems to meet increasingly stringentCalifornia emission standards, cleaner gasoline, and the Smog Checkprogram. VOC emissions from other mobile sources are projected todecline between 2000 and 2035 as more stringent emission standards are adopted and implemented. Substantial reductions havealso been obtained for area-wide sources through the vapor recoveryprogram for service stations, bulk plants, and other fuel distributionoperations. There are also on-going programs to reduce overall solvent VOC emissions from coatings, consumer products, cleaning anddegreasing solvents, and other substances used within California. Foradditional information on these forecasts, please refer to the ARBSIP web page atwww.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm.Figure 3-305001000150020002500300035002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Annual Average (tons/day)Statewide VOC Emission TrendsStationary SourcesArea-wide SourcesOn-Road MobileOther MobileVOC Emission Trends (tons/day, annual average)Emission Source2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035All Sources29022261 1943 1624 1561 1554 1568 1574Stationary Sources564 416 417 401 425 445 465 481Area-wide Sources783 713 655 611 630 647 665 673On-Road Mobile1056 675 505 299 220 188 168 145Gasoline Vehicles1005 621 468 276 199 167 145 120Diesel Vehicles51 54 37 23 21 21 23 25Other Mobile500458366 314 286 273 270 275Gasoline Fuel388 352 282 234 207 193 187 187Diesel Fuel84 79 56 50 45 45 47 52Other Fuel27 27 28 30 34 35 36 36Table 3-4File 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 512/16/2013 3:08:06 PMChapter 3Chapter 3ARB Almanac 2013 – Chapter 3: Statewide Emission Trends and Forecasts3-601002003004005006007002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Annual Average (tons/day)Statewide Directly Emitted PM2.5Emission TrendsStationary SourcesUnpaved Road DustPaved Road DustOther Area-wide SourcesOn-Road MobileOther MobileEmission Trends and Forecasts - Directly Emitted PM2.5PM2.5emissions are projected to decrease from 2000 to 2035 as aresult of reduced stationary source and area-wide source emissions.PM2.5emissions are dominated by area-wide sources. Emissions frompaved road dust and unpaved road dust emissions remain fairly constant through the forecast period. Other area-wide source emissions,which include managed burning, residential wood combustion, andfugitive windblown dust, decrease from 2000 to 2035. Exhaust emissions from diesel mobile sources dropped from 2000 to 2035 due tomore stringent emissions standards and the introduction of cleanerburning diesel fuel. PM2.5emissions from stationary sources andarea-wide sources are expected to increase slightly after 2015.Figure 3-4Table 3-5Directly Emitted PM2.5Emission Trends (tons/day, annual average)Emission Source2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035All Sources661524 447 410 414 419 434 441Stationary Sources92 91 82 65 69 72 75 78Area-wide Sources445 309 275 277 281 284 294 295Paved Road Dust24 24 26 25 25 26 26 26Unpaved Road Dust28 28 26 27 27 27 27 27Other Area-wide Sources394 257 223 225 229 231 241 242On-Road Mobile61 59 47 33 31 33 34 36Gasoline Vehicles27 23 21 21 21 22 23 24Diesel Vehicles34 36 26 12 10 11 11 12Other Mobile626543 36 33 31 31 32Gasoline Fuel9 10 9 8 8 7 7 7Diesel Fuel45 47 26 19 16 14 14 15Other Fuel88889999File 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 612/16/2013 3:08:07 PMChapter 3Chapter 3ARB Almanac 2013 – Chapter 3: Statewide Emission Trends and Forecasts3-70500100015002000250030002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Annual Average (tons/day)Statewide Directly Emitted PM10Emission TrendsStationary SourcesUnpaved Road DustPaved Road DustOther Area-wide SourcesOn-Road MobileOther MobileEmission Trends and Forecasts - Directly Emitted PM10PM10emissions are projected to decrease from 2000 to 2035 as aresult of reduced area-wide source emissions. PM10emissions aredominated by other area-wide sources, primarily managed burning, residential wood combustion, and fugitive windblown dust.Emissions from paved road dust and unpaved road dust emissionsremain fairly constant through the forecast period. Other area-widesource emissions decrease by 52 percent from 2000 to 2010 andincrease after 2010. Exhaust emissions from diesel mobile sourcesdropped by 32 percent from 2000 to 2010 due to more stringentemissions standards and the introduction of cleaner burning dieselfuel. PM10emissions from stationary sources and area-wide sourcesare expected to increase slightly after 2015.Figure 3-5Table 3-6Directly Emitted PM10Emission Trends (tons/day, annual average)Emission Source200020052010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035All Sources2436 1700 1549 1491 1525 1544 1572 1590Stationary Sources153 170 184 130 140 147 154 162Area-wide Sources2122 1366 1236 1254 1282 1292 1310 1314Paved Road Dust160 162 179 166 170 171 172 173Unpaved Road Dust278 276 255 271 271 271 271 271Other Area-wide Sources1685 928 802 817 841 850 866 871On-Road Mobile92 92 82 67 68 71 75 79Gasoline Vehicles50 48 48 49 50 52 55 57Diesel Vehicles42 44 33 19 18 18 20 22Other Mobile697047 39 36 34 33 34Gasoline Fuel12 12 11 10 9 8 8 8Diesel Fuel48 50 28 21 17 15 15 16Other Fuel8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10File 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 712/16/2013 3:08:07 PMChapter 3Chapter 3ARB Almanac 2013 – Chapter 3: Statewide Emission Trends and Forecasts3-8Emission Trends and Forecasts - Diesel PMDiesel PMemissions decreased 37 percent from 2000 to 2010 primarily as a result of more stringent emissions standards and theintroduction of cleaner burning diesel fuel. Emissions from dieselmobile sources are projected to continue to decrease after 2010.Overall, statewide emissions are forecasted to decline by 71 percentbetween 2000 and 2035.Figure 3-6Diesel PM Emission Trends (tons/day, annual average)Emission Source2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035All Sources8688 54 31 25 23 23 25Stationary Sources33211111Area-wide Sources00000000On-Road Mobile34 35 24 9 6 6 7 7Gasoline Vehicles00000000Diesel Vehicles34 35 24 9 6 6 7 7Other Mobile485028 21 17 15 15 16Gasoline Fuel00000000Diesel Fuel48 50 28 20 17 15 15 16Other Fuel00000000Table 3-701020304050607080901002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Annual Average (tons/day)Statewide Diesel PM Emission TrendsStationary SourcesArea-wide SourcesOn-Road MobileOther MobileFile 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 812/16/2013 3:08:08 PMChapter 3Chapter 3ARB Almanac 2013 – Chapter 3: Statewide Emission Trends and Forecasts3-9SOXEmission Trends (tons/day, annual average)Emission Source2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035All Sources289287 123 78 82 88 94 101Stationary Sources132 97 64 54 55 58 60 63Area-wide Sources97766677On-Road Mobile13 13 5 6 6 5 5 6Gasoline Vehicles54454444Diesel Vehicles79111112Other Mobile13616946 13 15 18 21 26Gasoline Fuel00000000Diesel Fuel133 166 43 9 11 14 17 21Other Fuel33444455Emission Trends and Forecasts - Oxides of SulfurEmissions of SOxdeclined about 57 percent in California between2000 and 2010. Sulfur dioxide emissions from stationary sourcesdecreased between 2000 and 2010 due to improved industrial sourcecontrols and switching from fuel oil to natural gas for electric generation and industrial boilers. The SOxemissions from land-basedon- and off-road gasoline and diesel-fueled engines and vehicles havealso decreased due to lower sulfur content in the fuel and recent regulations adopted by the ARB. The “Fuel Sulfur and Other OperationRequirements for Ocean-Going Vessels within California Watersand 24 Nautical Miles of the California Baseline” adopted in 2008requires the use of cleaner marine distillate fuels in ocean-going vessels that visit California seaports. The SOxreductions seen in the“Other Mobile” category can be attributed to this effort.Despite major reductions overall since 2000, SOxemissions fromthe “other mobile” categories are expected to increase slightly in thefuture due to the significant growth in shipping activities expectedfor California.Figure 3-7Table 3-80501001502002503003502000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Annual Average (tons/day)Statewide SOXEmission TrendsStationary SourcesArea-wide SourcesOn-Road MobileOther MobileFile 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 912/16/2013 3:08:09 PMChapter 3Chapter 3ARB Almanac 2013 – Chapter 3: Statewide Emission Trends and Forecasts3-10Emission Trends and Forecasts - AmmoniaAmmonia emissions are projected to increase slightly from 2000 to2035 by about seven percent. Most of the ammonia emissions arefrom area-wide sources. The major area-wide source of ammonia islivestock waste. Area-wide source emissions are projected to remainrelatively flat from 2000 to 2035. Ammonia emissions from on-roadvehicles are produced by three-way catalyst equipped gasoline vehicles. On-road mobile ammonia emissions are forecasted to decreaseby 40 percent between 2000 and 2035. Ammonia emissions fromstationary sources are primarily related to NOxemission controls, themanufacture of a variety of products, and waste disposal. Their emissions are expected to double by 2035. However, because area-widedominate, the overall trend is flat.Figure 3-8NH3Emission Trends (tons/day, annual average)Emission Source200020052010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035All Sources730 741 752 719 742 770 776 779Stationary Sources53 61 66 89 95 100 104 107Area Wide614 622 637 588 610 634 634 633On-Road Mobile63 58 48 41 37 36 37 38Gasoline Vehicles62 57 47 39 35 34 35 36Diesel Vehicles11112222Other Mobile00001111Gasoline Fuel00000000Diesel Fuel00001111Other Fuel00000000Table 3-901002003004005006007008009002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Annual Average (tons/day)Statewide NH3Emission TrendsStationary SourcesArea-wide SourcesOn-Road MobileOther MobileFile 04 Chap 3 Alm2013 p1-10.indd 1012/16/2013 3:08:10 PM