Preliminary Agenda Manufacturer Impact Analyses Workshop

March 11 and 12, 1997 Room 1E-245, 1000 Independence Ave SW

Washington, D.C.

Purpose: To describe and obtain comments on the draft workplan for future

manufacturer impact analysis. To describe and obtain comments on existing and proposed analytical tools. Expected Outcomes: Formation of a working group(s) consisting of representatives of

different industries and other interested parties. Guidance for further development of the workplan, including advice on the desirability of making changes to existing models or developing new tools.

Day 1 - March 11 Methodology Overview and Description of Analytical Tools

9:00 a.m. - 9:15 a.m. ' . Opening Remarks, Overview, Agenda Review

9:15 a.m . - 9:30 a.m.

9:30 a.m. - 9:45 a.m. Description of the Review Process - Major objectives of the process rule regarding the analysis of manufacturer impacts - Process description - Schedule Analytical Framework - Measures of impact - Firms considered - Balance of qualitative and quantitative assessments 9:45 a.m. - 10:30 a.m. Description of New Approach - Overview - Relationship to other standards analyses - Phase 1, Industry Profile - Phase 2, Industry Cash Flow - Phase 3, Sub-Group Analysis

10:30 a.m. - 10:45 a.m. Break10:45 a.m. - 12:00 noon Description of the GRIM Model - Role and applicability of the GRIM Model Financial principles - Input requirements - Output results - Open discussion, suggested modification, e.g. inclusion of return on investment 12:00 noon - 1:00 p.m. Lunch 1:00 p.m. - 2:00 p.m. Preparing the Industry Profiles - Industry characterization - Industry data book 2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. Issues in Shipments Forecasts - Panel and Open Discussion - Role of forecasting models in the manufacturer impact analyses - General description of models, including • Input requirements 

### • Outputs • Key assumptions • Uncertainty analysis • Track record • Operating characteristics - New spread sheet approach - Advantages and disadvantages of alternate approaches to forecasting shipments for GRIM 

### 3:30 p.m. - 5:00 p.m. Optional hands-on computer training on the models

Day 2 - March 12 Methodology Implementation 9:00 a.m. - 9:15 a.m. Opening Remarks, Agenda Review -Objectives 9:15 a.m. - 9:45 a.m. Review of Day One Outcomes Key issues - DOE perspective 

### - Stakeholder comments

9:45 a .m. - 10:00 a.m. Break10:00 a.m. - 11:30 a.m. Estimating Manufacturing Costs for Input to GRIM - Panel and Open Discussion - Relationship to engineering analysis - Uncertainty in key variables - Variability between firms - Data collection methods e.g. ASHRAE methodology - Costs not considered in GRIM 11:30 a.m. - 12:30 p.m. Lunch 12:30 p.m. - 1:30 p.m. Estimating Prices for Input to GRIM - Panel and Open Discussion - Relationship to life-cycle cost analysis Economic concepts - DOT methodology 

### - Alternative forecasts - Scenario/ uncertainty analysis 1:30 p.m. 2:30 p.m. Estimating Shipments for Input to GRIM- Panel and Open Discussion - Relationship to national benefits forecasts - Appropriateness of existing forecasting models - Simplified spreadsheet model - Alternative forecasts - Scenario/ uncertainty analysis 2:30 p.m. - 2:45 p.m. Break 2:45 p.m. - 4:15 p.m. Non - Model Impact Evaluation - Panel and Open Discussion - Competitive impacts - Manufacturing capacity, lost investment - Employment impacts - Information gathering and assessment methodology - Cumulative impacts 

### 4:15 p.m. - 4:45 p.m. Other Issues/Alternative Methods/Stakeholder Comments 4:45 p.m. - 5:00 p .m. Discussion of Future Steps - Working group(s) composition , role and meetings 5:00 p.m. Adjourn