A Changing Nation: Population Projections 

Under Alternative Immigration Scenarios 

Population Estimates and Projections

By Sandra Johnson

Current Population Reports

Issued February 2020

P25-1146

INTRODUCTION

Higher international immigration over the next four 

decades would produce a faster growing, more 

diverse, and younger population for the United States. 

In contrast, an absence of migration into the country 

over this same period would result in a U.S. population that is smaller than the present. Different levels of 

immigration between now and 2060 could change the 

projection of the population in that year by as much 

as 127 million people, with estimates ranging anywhere from 320 to 447 million U.S. residents. 

Beyond influencing the number of people in the 

population, immigration patterns over the next four 

decades will also shape the racial and ethnic composition of the population. In 2016, Asians were the 

fastest-growing racial group in the nation, and immigration was the primary driver behind the growth in 

this group. If immigration increases, the Asian alone 

population could grow by as much as 162 percent 

between 2016 and 2060 and go from 5.7 percent of 

the total U.S. population to 10.8 percent. The future 

size of this population is particularly sensitive to 

immigration. Under a scenario with no immigration, 

the Asian alone population in the United States would 

decline over time, representing just 4.5 percent of the 

total population in 2060.

Regardless of immigration, the population is expected 

to continue to age between now and 2060. Low fertility rates coupled with large cohorts of baby boomers 

reaching their “golden years” are expected to shift the 

age distribution of the population so that the share of 

the population aged 65 and older exceeds the share 

of the population under the age of 18. The timing of 

this shift, however, will vary depending on the amount 

of immigration that occurs. High immigration levels 

will delay this milestone more than a decade relative 

to scenarios with lower levels of migration.

The 2017 National Projections main series, released in 

September 2018, present one scenario for the future 

population.1

 These projections will only hold true if 

the assumptions about births, deaths, and migration match the actual trends in these components of 

population change. International migration is difficult 

to project because political and economic conditions 

are nearly impossible to anticipate, yet factor heavily 

into migration movements into and out of a country. 

While we do not attempt to predict future policy or 

economic cycles, we do recognize the uncertainty 

surrounding migration and the impact that different 

migration outcomes could have on the future population. To account for this, we have produced three 

alternate sets of projections that use the same methodology and assumptions for fertility, mortality, and 

emigration, but differ in the levels of immigration that 

they assume: high, low, and zero immigration. This 

report compares the results from the three alternative 

scenarios of projections and the main series, focusing 

on differences in the pace at which the U.S. population grows, diversifies, and ages. 

1

 The 2017 National Projections were initially released in 

December 2017, but were retracted when an error was identified in 

the mortality rates. A revised version was released in September 

2018.
2 U.S. Census Bureau

2017 NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS 

The results in this report are based on the 2017 

National Population Projections, which are the 

third set of projections based on the 2010 Census, 

and cover the period from 2017 to 2060. The 2017 

National Population Projections include projections of the resident population by age, sex, race, 

Hispanic origin, and nativity (whether people were 

born in the United States or another country). They 

are based on official population estimates through 

2016. This series uses the cohort-component 

method, which projects the three components of 

population change—fertility, mortality, and international migration—separately for each birth cohort 

based on historical trends. The base population 

is advanced each year using projected survival 

rates and net international migration. New birth 

cohorts are added to the population by applying 

the annual projected fertility rates to the female 

population. 

The main series of projections, released in 

September 2018, assumes that future international 

migration will mirror recent historical trends; this 

is the “middle” migration assumption. In addition to the main series, we also produced three 

alternative scenarios that are “what if” exercises, 

examining how the U.S. population would change 

if future patterns of immigration differ radically 

from historical trends. For each of the three scenarios described below, the fertility, mortality, and 

emigration assumptions are the same as those 

used in the main series; the only component that 

differs is immigration.

Zero immigration scenario. Assumes that immigration into the United States falls to zero (the 

theoretical minimum). Under this scenario, there 

is no immigration, but we still allow for emigration 

out of the United States. This offers the most dramatic picture of demographic change.

High immigration scenario. Assumes immigration 

increases by 50.0 percent compared with levels 

from 2011 to 2015 for all projected years. This scenario shows what the outcome would be if we were 

underestimating immigration by half in the main 

series. 

Low immigration scenario. Assumes that immigration rates are roughly cut in half from their 2011 

to 2015 levels. This scenario is not strictly 50.0 

percent less, but is log symmetrical to the values 

for the high migration scenario. As a result, the 

projected migration rates vary between 40 and 

50 percent less than those projected for the main 

series in any of the given years, starting with 2017.

For more information on the data and methodology, see the report on the 2017 National Population 

Projections: Methodology and Assumptions

<www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj

/technical-documentation/methodology.html>.

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE 2017 

NATIONAL POPULATION 

PROJECTIONS

Population Growth

• Over the next four decades, 

the population is expected to 

increase from its 2016 level in 

two out of the three alternative 

scenarios. In the high scenario, 

the population will increase by 

124 million, reaching 447 million 

in 2060. In the low scenario, the 

2060 population is projected to 

be 376 million, representing an 

increase of 53 million people. 

• Under a zero immigration scenario, the population is projected to increase until 2035, 

at which point the population 

would peak at 333 million. After 

that, the population is projected to decline through 2060, 

when it could reach a low of 

320 million.
U.S. Census Bureau 3

• In the main series of projections, the population is projected to reach the 400 million 

milestone in 2058. This threshold is crossed 15 years earlier 

in the high scenario and is not 

attained in either the low or 

zero immigration scenario.

• The average annual growth in 

the population is 2.8 million 

people in the high scenario, 

compared to 1.8 million in the 

main series, 1.2 million in the 

low, and –78 thousand in the 

zero immigration scenario.

Population Diversity

• The share of the population 

that is White alone is projected 

to decline in all scenarios of 

population projections between 

2016 and 2060. For the high, 

middle, and low scenarios, 

the number of residents classified as White alone actually 

increases from the 2016 values, 

but these increases are outpaced by increases in the other 

racial and ethnic groups. 

• The non-Hispanic White alone 

population is projected to 

decline in all scenarios between 

2016 and 2060. In 2016, there 

were an estimated 198 million 

individuals in this group. In the 

high scenario, this number is 

projected to decrease by 11 million in 2060 to 187 million. The 

to 21.6 percent. In the low, it 

remains relatively stable at 

just under 14 percent through 

2060; and in the zero immigration scenario, it decreases to a 

historic low of 4.6 percent.

Population Aging

• The population aged 65 and 

older is projected to surpass 

the population under the age 

of 18 in size in all immigration 

scenarios. The date at which 

this occurs is earliest in the zero 

immigration scenario (2029), 

followed by the low immigration scenario (2031), and then 

the high (2045).

• By 2030, more than 20 percent of the U.S. population will 

be aged 65 and older. In the 

high scenario, this milestone is 

reached in 2028. For the low 

scenario, it occurs in 2026; and 

in 2025 for the zero scenario.

• The number of children (ages 

0–17) is projected to decline in 

both the low and zero immigration scenarios. In 2016, there 

were an estimated 74 million 

children in the population. 

By 2060, this is projected to 

decline to 59 million in the zero 

scenario and to 73 million in the 

low scenario. Conversely, the 

child population is projected to 

increase to just under 91 million 

by 2060 in the high scenario.

2060 projection for this group 

in the low scenario is 174 million, a decrease of 24 million; 

and in the zero scenario, it is 163 

million. The non-Hispanic White 

alone population is projected 

to decrease the most between 

2016 and 2060 in the zero immigration scenario (35 million). 

• The Two or More Races group is 

the fastest-growing racial group 

between 2016 and 2060 in all 

projection scenarios. In 2016, 

just under 8.5 million residents 

were classified as more than 

one race. This number is projected to more than double for 

all scenarios. The zero immigration scenario, with a projected 

160 percent increase, has the 

smallest Two or More Races 

population in 2060 (22 million). 

In contrast, the high immigration scenario has the largest 

increase (216 percent or 18 

million) and the largest Two or 

More Races population in 2060 

(27 million). 

• Projected changes in the

foreign-born population 

between 2016 and 2060 vary 

across the scenarios and are 

consistent with the immigration assumptions used. In the 

high immigration scenario, the 

percentage of the population 

that is foreign-born is projected 

to increase from 13.6 percent 
4 U.S. Census Bureau

POPULATION GROWTH

The projected change in the population depends on what assumptions are made about the fertility, 

mortality, and migration behaviors 

of that population in the future. 

Changing the assumptions about 

any one of these components will 

alter the projected size and composition of the population over 

time. For the alternative population projections, we have developed three scenarios where we 

increase, decrease, and eliminate 

immigration. These complementary projections provide information on how different immigration 

trends could shape the U.S. population through 2060. 

Comparing population growth 

over time from all of the scenarios 

reveals patterns that are consistent with the different immigration assumptions used (Table 1 

and Figure 1). Higher immigration produces more population 

growth relative to the main series 

of projections, and lower immigration produces diminished growth. 

In the main series of population 

projections, the U.S. population 

is projected to increase by 25 

percent between 2016 and 2060, 

from 323 million to 404 million. In 

a higher immigration scenario, the 

2060 population is projected to 

grow to 447 million, an increase 

of 38 percent over the 2016 value. 

Table 1. 

Projected U.S. Population by Immigration Scenario:

2016 to 2060

(Numbers in thousands)

Year

Main series

Alternative immigration scenario

Low High Zero

Numeric change: 

2016 to 2060. . . . . . . . . . 81,356 53,099 123,738 –3,422

Percent change: 

2016 to 2060. . . . . . . . . . 25.18 16.43 38.29 –1.06

2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323,128 323,128 323,128 323,128

2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325,511 325,024 326,243 324,048

2018. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327,892 326,909 329,366 324,943

2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330,269 328,782 332,499 325,809

2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332,639 330,640 335,638 326,641

2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 334,998 332,477 338,781 327,434

2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 337,342 334,289 341,921 328,183

2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 339,665 336,071 345,056 328,884

2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341,963 337,820 348,179 329,533

2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 344,234 339,532 351,287 330,128

2026. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 346,481 341,213 354,384 330,675

2027. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348,695 342,849 357,464 331,157

2028. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350,872 344,439 360,521 331,573

2029. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 353,008 345,979 363,552 331,920

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 355,101 347,467 366,552 332,198

2031. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 357,147 348,901 369,517 332,408

2032. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 359,147 350,281 372,445 332,549

2033. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361,099 351,607 375,335 332,624

2034. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363,003 352,881 378,186 332,636

2035. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364,862 354,104 380,999 332,587

2036. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366,676 355,277 383,775 332,478

2037. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 368,448 356,404 386,514 332,314

2038. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 370,179 357,485 389,219 332,096

2039. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371,871 358,524 391,892 331,827

2040. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373,528 359,522 394,536 331,510

2041. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 375,152 360,484 397,154 331,146

2042. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 376,746 361,411 399,748 330,739

2043. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378,314 362,308 402,324 330,293

2044. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379,861 363,178 404,885 329,810

2045. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381,390 364,026 407,437 329,295

2046. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 382,907 364,856 409,984 328,752

2047. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384,415 365,672 412,529 328,183

2048. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 385,918 366,477 415,078 327,592

2049. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387,419 367,274 417,635 326,983

2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388,922 368,068 420,202 326,358

2051. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 390,431 368,862 422,783 325,720

2052. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391,947 369,657 425,381 325,072

2053. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 393,473 370,455 427,998 324,416

2054. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395,009 371,258 430,634 323,753

2055. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396,557 372,068 433,290 323,084

2056. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 398,118 372,884 435,966 322,412

2057. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399,691 373,708 438,663 321,737

2058. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401,277 374,540 441,379 321,061

2059. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402,874 375,380 444,114 320,384

2060. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404,483 376,226 446,866 319,706

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
U.S. Census Bureau 5

Lower levels of immigration would 

reduce the growth in the population, so that by 2060 the population is projected to only increase 

by 16 percent to 376 million. Under 

the scenario with no immigration, the population is projected 

to shrink from its 2016 value by 

1.1 percent down to 320 million 

people in 2060 (Figure 2).

Figure 1.

U.S. Population 1900–2016, Population Projections 2017–2060 by Immigration Scenario

(In millions)

The U.S. population would shrink under a zero immigration scenario.

76.2

150.7

281.4

323.1 

U.S. population 

in 2016

U.S. population

Main series

High immigration scenario

Low immigration scenario

Zero immigration scenario

446.9 

404.5

376.2

319.7

Note: Census values for 1950 and earlier exclude the populations of Alaska and Hawaii.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections; U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 National Population Estimates; 

U.S. Census Bureau, 1900–2000 Decennial Censuses.

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

38.3

16.4

Figure 2.

Projected Population Change Between 2016 and 2060 by 

Immigration Scenario

Population change between 2016 and 2060 ranges from –3.4 to 123.7 

million, depending on immigration.

81.4

53.1

123.7

-3.4

25.2

Projected 

percent change

Projected population 

change in millions

-1.1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

Zero immigration

scenario

Low immigration

scenario

High immigration

scenario

Main series
6 U.S. Census Bureau

The zero immigration scenario 

offers the most dramatic picture 

of demographic change. This 

assumption is hypothetical, and 

shows what would happen to the 

existing U.S. population if it did not 

grow through immigration. Births 

are the only way for the population to grow in the zero immigration model, but the population 

can decrease through deaths and 

emigration (Table 2). Between 

2016 and 2038 in this scenario, the 

number of births and deaths are 

projected to converge, with births 

declining and deaths increasing. In 

2039, the number of deaths is projected to be larger than the number of births; and natural increase 

(the difference between births and 

deaths) becomes negative for the 

first time (Figure 3). Negative natural increase produces a shrinking 

population in the zero immigration scenario, with annual declines 

starting in 2035 and continuing at 

an accelerated pace through 2060. 

Though natural increase does not 

become negative in any of the 

other scenarios, it is projected to 

decline in all of them. Large baby 

boom cohorts will be entering 

older ages where mortality rates 

are higher. This is expected to produce a higher number of deaths, 

especially between 2020 and 

2050. At the same time, fertility 

rates are expected to remain low, 

with only slight increases in births 

projected over the time series. A 

faster increase in deaths relative 

to births decreases the pace of 

population growth through natural 

increase. Migration offsets this 

decline in natural increase in all 

but the zero immigration scenario. In the main series, migration becomes a larger source of 

population growth than natural 

increase starting in 2030. In the 

low immigration scenario, migration outpaces natural increase as 

the leading contributor to population growth starting in 2035; and 

in the high immigration scenario, 

migration levels are always 

assumed to be higher than natural 

increase. 

Table 2. 

Projected Change in the U.S. Population From Births, Deaths, 

and Migration1 by Immigration Scenario: 2019 to 2060

(Numbers in thousands)

Scenario 2019 to 

2020

2029 to 

2030

2039 to 

2040

2049 to 

2050

2059 to 

2060

Total Population Change

Main series. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,370 2,093 1,657 1,503 1,609

Low scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,858 1,488 999 794 847

High scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,139 3,000 2,644 2,567 2,752

Zero scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 832 278 –318 –625 –678

International Migration

Main series. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,010 1,064 1,098 1,110 1,118

Low scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 542 616 653 671 687

High scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,711 1,736 1,766 1,767 1,763

Zero scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . –393 –279 –237 –206 –174

Natural Change2

Main series. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,360 1,028 558 394 491

Low scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,315 871 345 123 160

High scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,428 1,264 878 800 988

Zero scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,225 557 –81 –419 –504

Births

Main series. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,112 4,162 4,196 4,304 4,397

Low scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,063 3,990 3,951 3,978 3,977

High scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,186 4,421 4,564 4,794 5,027

Zero scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,965 3,645 3,461 3,324 3,135

Deaths

Main series. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,752 3,134 3,638 3,910 3,906

Low scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,748 3,118 3,606 3,855 3,817

High scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,757 3,157 3,686 3,994 4,039

Zero scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,741 3,087 3,542 3,743 3,639

1 Migration refers to net international migration, the number of people entering the country minus the number leaving it.

2 Natural change is the number of births added to the population minus the number of 

deaths. A positive number means that more births are projected than deaths (i.e., a natural 

increase in the population), whereas a negative number means more deaths are projected 

than births (i.e., a natural decrease in the population). 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
U.S. Census Bureau 7

Figure 3.

Natural Increase1 and Net International Migration by Immigration Scenario: 2017 to 2060

Net international migration surpasses natural increase as the leading contributor to population growth in all 

migration scenarios.

1 Natural increase is births minus deaths during a specified time period.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2017 2027 2037 2047 2057

Main series

Natural increase Net international migration

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2017 2027 2037 2047 2057

Low immigration scenario

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2017 2027 2037 2047 2057

High immigration scenario Zero immigration scenario

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2017 2027 2037 2047 2057

Thousands Thousands

Thousands Thousands
8 U.S. Census Bureau

Annual growth in the population 

across the scenarios follows the 

expected pattern based on the 

immigration assumptions used 

(Table 3): the average annual 

growth in the population is 2.8 

million people (0.74 percent) in 

the high scenario, compared to 1.8 

million (0.51 percent) in the main 

series, 1.2 million (0.35 percent) in 

the low, and –78 thousand (–0.02 

percent) in the zero scenario. 

Though the amount of people 

added to the population each year 

varies, the scenarios (excluding 

zero immigration) follow similar 

growth trajectories. For all

scenarios, the annual increases in 

the population are largest in the 

early years of the time series. For 

example, in the high scenario, the 

population is projected to increase 

by 3.1 million people (0.94 percent) between 2019 and 2020. One 

decade later, the projected growth 

drops to 3.0 million (0.83 percent). 

Between 2039 and 2040, the 

population is projected to increase 

by 2.6 million (0.67 percent). 

Growth remains relatively stable 

after this through 2060. The same 

pattern of decreasing growth followed by stabilization from 2040 

to 2060 occurs in the main series 

and low scenario. This is because 

the pattern largely reflects the 

population changes stemming 

from declining natural increase. 

While the alternate migration 

assumptions change the level of 

immigration, they do so evenly 

over the time series and, therefore, 

do not change the general pattern of population growth in the 

projections. 

POPULATION DIVERSITY

Changing our assumptions about 

immigration over the next four 

decades impacts the composition 

of the projected population with 

respect to nativity in expected 

ways (Table 4). In the main series 

of projections, we estimated a 

3.6 percentage-point increase in 

the share of the U.S. population 

that is foreign-born between 2016 

and 2060. In 2016, 14 percent of 

the population was foreign-born, 

compared to a projected 17 percent in 2060. The number of

foreign-born in the nation in 

the main series was projected 

are 10,000 women in the population and apply 

our assumed rate, we would get a projection of 

1,043 births. Doubling the number of women in 

that age group, say through increased migration, 

while maintaining the same rate would produce 

double the number of births: 2,086. This is a simple 

illustration to show how the same fertility assumption can yield a very different number of projected 

births. Each scenario includes the same rates as 

inputs for fertility and mortality, but the births 

and deaths are different because the migration 

assumptions change the population. This is what is 

happening in the alternate projection scenarios.

Fertility and mortality rates used in the projections 

are available to download at <www.census.gov

/data/datasets/2017/demo/popproj/2017

-popproj.html>.

HOW DO THE SAME FERTILITY AND MORTALITY ASSUMPTIONS PRODUCE DIFFERENT 

BIRTHS AND DEATHS? 

The same fertility and mortality assumptions are 

used in the main series and three alternate scenarios of population projections, yet the projected 

values for births and deaths are different. How is 

this possible? 

This happens because the fertility and mortality 

inputs used in the projections are rates. We project 

age-specific fertility rates and age-specific mortality rates and apply these to the projected population to produce births and deaths. The differences 

seen in the births and deaths are not because the 

fertility and mortality assumptions have changed, 

but instead stem from changes in the population to 

which they are applied. 

Using fertility as an example, let’s assume that 

there are 104.3 births for every 1,000 women in the 

population aged 25–29.1

 If we project that there 

1

 See <www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_01.pdf>.
U.S. Census Bureau 9

Table 3. 

Projected Rate of Population Change by Immigration Scenario: 2016 to 2060

(Numbers in thousands)

Year

Main series Alternative immigration scenario

Low High Zero

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Average change per year: 

2016 to 2060. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,849 0.51 1,207 0.35 2,812 0.74 –78 –0.02

2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,370 0.72 1,858 0.56 3,139 0.94 832 0.26

2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,271 0.66 1,712 0.51 3,109 0.89 596 0.18

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,093 0.59 1,488 0.43 3,000 0.83 278 0.08

2035. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,859 0.51 1,223 0.35 2,813 0.74 –50 –0.01

2040. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,657 0.45 999 0.28 2,644 0.67 –318 –0.10

2045. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,529 0.40 848 0.23 2,552 0.63 –515 –0.16

2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,503 0.39 794 0.22 2,567 0.61 –625 –0.19

2055. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,548 0.39 809 0.22 2,656 0.62 –668 –0.21

2060. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1,609 0.40 847 0.23 2,752 0.62 –678 –0.21

Note: Rates for individual years refer to the size of population change between July 1 of the indicated year and July 1 of the preceding year.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

Table 4. 

Projected Size of the Foreign-Born Population by Immigration Scenario: 2016 to 2060

(Numbers in thousands)

Year

Main series Low scenario High scenario Zero scenario

Population Percent 

foreignborn

Population Percent 

foreignborn

Population Percent 

foreignborn

Population Percent 

foreignTotal bornForeignborn TotalForeignborn Total Foreignborn Total Foreignborn

2016. . . . 323,128 43,845 13.57 323,128 43,845 13.57 323,128 43,845 13.57 323,128 43,845 13.57

2020. . . . 332,639 46,703 14.04 330,640 44,815 13.55 335,638 49,536 14.76 326,641 41,037 12.56

2025. . . . 344,234 50,270 14.60 339,532 46,129 13.59 351,287 56,481 16.08 330,128 37,846 11.46

2030. . . . 355,101 53,783 15.15 347,467 47,464 13.66 366,552 63,261 17.26 332,198 34,825 10.48

2035. . . . 364,862 57,104 15.65 354,104 48,642 13.74 380,999 69,797 18.32 332,587 31,718 9.54

2040. . . . 373,528 60,156 16.10 359,522 49,600 13.80 394,536 75,991 19.26 331,510 28,486 8.59

2045. . . . 381,390 62,894 16.49 364,026 50,303 13.82 407,437 81,780 20.07 329,295 25,121 7.63

2050. . . . 388,922 65,310 16.79 368,068 50,760 13.79 420,202 87,134 20.74 326,358 21,660 6.64

2055. . . . 396,557 67,434 17.00 372,068 51,016 13.71 433,290 92,061 21.25 323,084 18,179 5.63

2060. . . . 404,483 69,333 17.14 376,226 51,147 13.59 446,866 96,611 21.62 319,706 14,775 4.62

Change: 

2016 to 

2060. . . 81,356 25,488 3.57 53,099 7,303 0.03 123,738 52,766 8.05 –3,422 –29,070 –8.95

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

to increase by 25 million, or 58 

percent, from 44 million in 2016 

to 69 million in 2060. The high 

immigration scenario produces 

a larger projected foreign-born 

population in 2060 than the main 

series. Under our assumption 

of high immigration, 97 million 

individuals, (22 percent of the 

population) are projected to be 

foreign-born in 2060. This is a 120 

percent increase in the foreignborn population between 2016 

and 2060. Under the low immigration scenario, the projected 

increase of 7 million, or 17 percent, 

in the foreign-born population is 

much lower, and the share of the 

population that is foreign-born 

remains relatively stable at around 

14 percent for all years between 

2016 and 2060. The zero scenario, which assumes that no new 

international migrants enter the 

nation between 2016 and 2060, 

projects a predictable decline in 

the foreign-born population to 15 

million or 4.6 percent of the total 

U.S. population in 2060.
10 U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 4 illustrates the impact

that different immigration 

assumptions could have on the 

projected foreign-born population. Consistent with our assumptions about immigration, higher 

immigration produces a larger 

share of foreign-born in the population. In both the main series and 

the high scenario, the share of

the population in 2060 that is

foreign-born is projected to 

exceed the historic high of 14.8 

percent. Conversely, the zero 

immigration scenario projects 

the share of the population that 

is foreign-born will decline to 4.6 

percent in 2060, lower than the 

historic low of 4.7 percent. 

Though we assume different levels 

of immigration in our alternative 

scenarios, each of the scenarios 

with immigration assumes the 

same country of origin distribution for the immigrants as was 

included in the main series. For 

example, we did not increase 

migration from Asian nations 

any more than we did for other 

nations. Changing just the level 

of migration has implications for 

the race and ethnic makeup of the 

country in the coming decades, 

but there are some patterns that 

persist regardless of immigration 

scenario. 

In all immigration scenarios, we 

are projecting declines in the 

share of the total U.S. population that is White (Figure 5). 

The amount of decline varies 

across scenarios, with assumptions of higher migration producing populations that have lower 

percentages of people reported

as White. At the start of the projection period, 77 percent of the 

U.S. population was White alone. 

In the main series, the share of

the population that is White alone 

is projected to decline 8.9 percentage points to 68 percent of 

the population in 2060. These

percentage-point declines 

between 2016 and 2060 are larger 

in the high scenario and smaller 

in the low and zero scenarios. In 

2060, the projected share of the 

population that is White alone 

ranges from 67 percent in the high 

scenario to 72 percent in the zero 

scenario. 

The number of individuals identifying as White alone is expected 

to increase over time, with the 

declining share of the population 

Figure 4.

Percentage of the U.S. Population That Is Foreign-Born: 1850 to 2016,

Projected 2017 to 2060

A high immigration scenario would produce a historic-high share of foreign-born in the United States in 2060.

Historic 

high

14.8

Historic 

low

4.7

12.9

21.6

17.1

13.6

4.6

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections; 2016 American Community Survey; and 1850–2000 Historical 

Statistics on the Foreign-Born Population.

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070

Historical estimates

Main series

High immigration scenario

Low immigration scenario

Zero immigration scenario
U.S. Census Bureau 11

in this group resulting from faster 

growth in the other races. In 

contrast, the non-Hispanic White 

alone population is projected to 

decline in all scenarios between 

2016 and 2060 (Table 5). In 2016, 

there were an estimated 198 million individuals in this group. In 

the high scenario, this number is 

projected to decrease by 11 million (5.5 percent) to 187 million in 

2060. The 2060 projection for this 

group in the low scenario is 174 

million, representing a decrease of 

24 million (12 percent), and in the 

zero immigration scenario it is 163 

million. The non-Hispanic White 

alone population is projected to 

decrease the most between 2016 

and 2060 in the zero immigration 

scenario (35 million or 17 percent). 

In all but the zero immigration 

scenario, the share of the population that is non-Hispanic White 

alone is expected to decline to 

less than 50 percent by 2060, 

falling from 61 percent in 2016 to 

46 percent in the low scenario, 

44 percent in the main, and 42 

percent in the high. In the zero 

immigration scenario, 51 percent 

of the U.S. population is projected 

to be non-Hispanic White alone in 

2060. 

Another consistent pattern projected in all migration scenarios 

is the multiple race population 

growing faster than single race 

groups between 2016 and 2060. 

In 2016, just under 8.5 million 

residents were classified as more 

than one race. This number is 

projected to more than double for 

all scenarios. The zero immigration scenario, with a projected 160 

percent increase, has the smallest 

Two or More Races population in 

2060 (22 million). In contrast, the 

high immigration scenario has the 

largest increase in this category 

(216 percent or 18 million) and the 

largest Two or More Races population in 2060 (27 million). 

Of the single race groups, the 

Asian population is impacted the 

most by the varying assumptions 

of immigration. In the main series, 

the Asian alone population was 

projected to increase from 18 million in 2016 to 37 million in 2060. 

This is an increase of 101 percent. 

Whereas the Asian population is 

projected to double in the main 

series, the low scenario projects 

slower growth with an increase 

of 11 million or 60 percent. In the 

high scenario, the Asian alone 

population in 2060 is projected 

to be 2.6 times larger than it was 

in 2016, representing a growth of 

30 million or 162 percent. The zero 

scenario provides an interesting 

Figure 5.

Percentage-Point Change in the Race Distribution of the U.S. Population Between 2016 

and 2060 by Immigration Scenario

Changing immigration levels has a large impact on the share of the population that is Asian alone.

-8.9

Black alone

White alone 13.3% in 2016

76.9% in 2016

Asian alone

5.7% in 2016

AIAN alone

1.3% in 2016

NHPI alone

0.2% in 2016

Two or More Races

2.6% in 2016

Z Rounds to zero.

Note: AIAN is American Indian and Alaska Native and NHPI is Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. Black is used 

interchangeably with Black or African American.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

-7.9

-10.2

-5.4

1.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 3.4 5.1 2.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 Z Z Z Z 3.6 3.83.4 4.3 -1.1

Main series Low immigration 

scenario

High immigration 

scenario 

Zero immigration 

scenario
12 U.S. Census Bureau

Table 5. 

Projected Race and Hispanic Origin by Immigration Scenario: 2016 to 2060

(Numbers in thousands)

Characteristic

Estimate Change: 2016 to 2060

2016 2060 Number Percent

    Main series, total population. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323,128 404,483 81,355 25.2

One race. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314,648 379,228 64,580 20.5

 White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248,503 275,014 26,511 10.7

  Non–Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197,970 179,162 –18,808 –9.5

 Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,001 60,690 17,689 41.1

 American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,055 5,583 1,528 37.7

 Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,319 36,815 18,496 101.0

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. . . . . . . . . 771 1,125 354 45.9

Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,480 25,255 16,775 197.8

Hispanic or Latino. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57,470 111,216 53,746 93.5

Alternative Net Migration Scenarios

     Low scenario, total population. . . . . . . . . . . . 323,128 376,226 53,098 16.4

One race. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314,648 352,003 37,355 11.9

 White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248,503 259,559 11,056 4.4

  Non–Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197,970 173,886 –24,084 –12.2

 Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,001 56,696 13,695 31.8

 American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,055 5,377 1,322 32.6 

 Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,319 29,336 11,017 60.1

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. . . . . . . . . 771 1,035 264 34.2

Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,480 24,223 15,743 185.6

Hispanic or Latino. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57,470 100,039 42,569 74.1

     High scenario, total population. . . . . . . . . . . 323,128 446,866 123,738 38.3

One race. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314,648 420,106 105,458 33.5

 White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248,503 298,198 49,695 20.0

  Non–Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197,970 187,068 –10,902 –5.5

 Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,001 66,675 23,674 55.1

 American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,055 5,892 1,837 45.3

 Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,319 48,074 29,755 162.4

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. . . . . . . . . 771 1,268 497 64.5

Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,480 26,760 18,280 215.6

Hispanic or Latino. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57,470 127,978 70,508 122.7

     Zero scenario, total population. . . . . . . . . . . 323,128 319,706 –3,422 –1.1

One race. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 314,648 297,699 –16,949 –5.4

 White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248,503 228,680 –19,823 –8.0

  Non–Hispanic White. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197,970 163,326 –34,644 –17.5

 Black or African American. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43,001 48,712 5,711 13.3

 American Indian and Alaska Native. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4,055 4,955 900 22.2

 Asian. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18,319 14,511 –3,808 –20.8

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander. . . . . . . . . 771 842 71 9.2

Two or More Races. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8,480 22,007 13,527 159.5

Hispanic or Latino. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57,470 77,691 20,221 35.2

Note: Hispanic origin is considered an ethnicity, not a race. Hispanics may be of any race. Responses of “Some Other Race” from the

2010 Census are modified. For more information, see <https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation

/methodology/modified-race-summary-file-method/mrsf2010.pdf>.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
U.S. Census Bureau 13

PROJECTING RACIAL DIVERSITY 

The 2017 National Projections are calculated using 

race categories consistent with the 1997 Office of 

Management and Budget (OMB) revised standards 

for the classification of federal data on race and 

ethnicity. The five primary race categories are: 

White: A person having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, the Middle East, or North 

Africa.

Black or African American: A person having origins in any of the black racial groups of Africa.1

American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN): A 

person having origins in any of the original peoples 

of North and South America (including Central 

America), and who maintains tribal affiliation or 

community attachment.

Asian: A person having origins in any of the original peoples of the Far East, Southeast Asia, or the 

Indian subcontinent including countries such as 

Cambodia, China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, 

Pakistan, the Philippine Islands, Thailand, and 

Vietnam.

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 

(NHPI): A person having origins in any of the 

original peoples of Hawaii, Guam, Samoa, or other 

Pacific Islands.2

Since the 2000 Census, individuals have been able 

to self-identify with one or more racial groups. 

Additionally, individuals are asked to self-identify 

their ethnicity as either Hispanic or not Hispanic. 

Therefore, official U.S. Census Bureau estimates 

are produced for the 31 combinations of race 

groups and two ethnic groups, creating a total of 

62 possible race and Hispanic origin categories. In 

1 The terms “Black or African American” and “Black” are used 

interchangeably in this report. 2 In this report, the acronym “NHPI” is sometimes used to 

refer to the Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population. The formal “Native and Other Pacific Islander” term generally is used in the tables and graphs.

our population projection publications, we tabulate 

race data for single race groups (e.g., White alone) 

as well as for race categories either alone or in 

combination with another racial group (e.g., White 

alone or in combination). Some Census Bureau 

tabulations also present the race and Hispanic origin data side-by-side to provide mutually exclusive 

race and Hispanic origin population groups (e.g., 

Hispanic, non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, 

etc.) which add to the total population.

We understand that the projected future racial and 

ethnic diversity of the nation depends on which 

tabulations are employed to present the race and 

Hispanic origin distributions of the U.S. population, and therefore we present these data in several 

ways. In our tabulations, we present one approach 

where the percentage of the U.S. population that 

is “White” (defined as non-Hispanic White alone) 

in the main series is projected to decrease from 61 

percent in 2016 to 44 percent in 2060. In another 

tabulation, we present the “White” population 

as White alone or in combination, regardless of 

Hispanic origin, which represents a larger share 

of the overall population and is projected to have 

a smaller decrease over time, from 79 percent in 

2016 to 74 percent in 2060. One of the challenges 

with using the alone or in combination groups as 

a comparative statistic, however, is that there is 

overlap with them and they do not sum up to the 

total population because people identifying with 

more than one race are counted in more than one 

category.

In addition, there are other caveats to keep in mind 

when considering the projected future racial and 

ethnic diversity of the nation. Such caveats do not 

apply to demographic characteristics that have a 

biological basis and can be measured objectively, 

such as age and sex (Hogan et al., 2015). The racial
14 U.S. Census Bureau

comparison point for examining 

changes in the size of the projected Asian population. All of the 

changes in the racial and ethnic 

composition in the population for 

the zero immigration scenario are 

the result of population momentum, or the births and deaths 

occurring to the population existing at the start of the projection 

period. In this scenario, the Asian 

alone population is projected to 

decline by 3.8 million or 21 percent 

between 2016 and 2060. The projected Asian growth in the other 

scenarios is driven entirely by 

immigration. Asians are assumed 

to have below-replacement fertility throughout the time series. 

Without immigration, their numbers will decline. 

The Hispanic2 population is 

similarly impacted by changing assumptions of immigration, 

though to a lesser extent than the 

Asian population. In all scenarios 

with immigration, the Hispanic 

population is projected to increase 

in size between 2016 and 2060, 

with increases ranging from 43 

million (low) to 71 million (high). 

High immigration scenarios project a larger share of the population to be Hispanic in 2060 than 

lower immigration scenarios; 29 

percent of the U.S. population is 

projected to be Hispanic in the 

high immigration scenario compared to 27 percent in the low. 

In the zero immigration scenario, 

the share of the U.S. population 

2 The terms “Hispanic or Latino” and 

“Hispanic” are used interchangeably in this 

report. 

that is Hispanic is still projected 

to increase from 18 percent in 

2016 to 24 percent in 2060; and 

the Hispanic population is projected to grow by 20 million, or 

35 percent, during that time. The 

Hispanic population, in contrast to 

the Asian population, has higher 

levels of fertility, which allow that 

population to grow even in the 

absence of new migration into the 

country.

POPULATION AGING

Projected increases in life expectancy coupled with low fertility 

produce an aging population in all 

of the projection scenarios (Tables 

6a and 6b). By 2030, more than 

20 percent of the U.S. population will be aged 65 and older. In 

the high scenario, this milestone 

PROJECTING RACIAL DIVERSITY—Con.

and ethnic groups that we have currently defined 

for future population projections are based upon 

current conceptual definitions. They are understood to be sociopolitical constructs and subject 

to change over time, as they did in 1997 when 

OMB issued revised federal standards for race and 

ethnicity. Since the first census in 1790, the Census 

Bureau has collected information on race/ethnicity and the census form has reflected changes 

in society and in the way the Census Bureau 

classifies race and ethnicity. Today, the Census 

Bureau collects race and ethnic data following 

OMB guidelines, and these data are based upon 

self-identification.

Furthermore, recent research has shown that the 

official OMB definitions of racial and ethnic groups 

do not necessarily align with how many individuals see themselves and identify on census forms 

(Mathews et al., 2017). One challenge we currently 

face is how Americans view “race” and “ethnicity” differently than in decades past. In our diverse 

society, a growing number of people find the 

current race and ethnic categories confusing, or 

they wish to see their own specific group reflected 

on the census questionnaire. Census Bureau 

research has found that over time, there have been 

a growing number of people, especially people 

of Hispanic, Caribbean, Middle Eastern, North 

African, or multiracial heritage who do not identify 

with any of the official OMB race categories. For 

example, an individual with Middle Eastern heritage, while defined as “White” by the current OMB 

standards, may not identify as White and instead 

identify with a different racial group or groups. 

Additionally, there is evidence showing that some 

people change their own racial identity over time 

(Liebler et al., 2017). These complexities have 

not been incorporated into our methodological 

assumptions about the future racial composition 

of the U.S. population and how that may change 

over time or how this could contribute to differences between what we are currently projecting 

and what may actually happen over the next four 

decades.
U.S. Census Bureau 15

Table 6a. 

Age Distribution of the Population by Immigration Scenario: 2016 to 2060

(Numbers in thousands)

Age

2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Change: 

2016 to 2060

Number Percent

   Main series, total population. . . . . . 323,128 332,639 355,101 373,528 388,922 404,483 81,355 25.18

Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,642 73,967 75,652 77,131 78,225 80,137 6,495 8.82

18 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200,241 202,621 206,311 215,571 225,023 229,670 29,429 14.70

65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49,244 56,052 73,138 80,827 85,675 94,676 45,432 92.26

Alternative Immigration Scenarios

   Low scenario, total population. . . . 323,128 330,640 347,467 359,522 368,068 376,226 53,098 16.43

Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,642 73,532 73,555 73,044 72,666 73,040 –602 –0.82

18 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200,241 201,169 201,238 206,637 211,552 211,772 11,531 5.76

65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49,244 55,938 72,674 79,841 83,850 91,414 42,170 85.63

   High scenario, total population. . . . 323,128 335,638 366,552 394,536 420,202 446,866 123,738 38.29

Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,642 74,618 78,797 83,261 86,563 90,780 17,138 23.27

18 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200,241 204,799 213,922 228,970 245,228 256,517 56,276 28.10

65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49,244 56,221 73,832 82,305 88,411 99,569 50,325 102.20

   Zero scenario, total population. . . . 323,128 326,641 332,198 331,510 326,358 319,706 –3,422 –1.06

Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,642 72,663 69,360 64,870 61,546 58,842 –14,800 –20.10

18 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200,241 198,265 191,090 188,770 184,610 175,974 –24,267 –12.12

65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49,244 55,712 71,748 77,870 80,201 84,890 35,646 72.39

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

Table 6b. 

Age Distribution of the Population by Immigration Scenario: 2016 to 2060

(In percent)

Age

2016 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Percentagepoint change: 

2016 to 2060

   Main series, total population. . . . . . . 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 X

Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.79 22.24 21.30 20.65 20.11 19.81 –2.98

18 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61.97 60.91 58.10 57.71 57.86 56.78 –5.19

65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.24 16.85 20.60 21.64 22.03 23.41 8.17

Alternative Immigration Scenarios

   Low scenario, total population. . . . . 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 X

Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.79 22.24 21.17 20.32 19.74 19.41 –3.38

18 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61.97 60.84 57.92 57.48 57.48 56.29 –5.68

65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.24 16.92 20.92 22.21 22.78 24.30 9.06

   High scenario, total population. . . . . 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 X

Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.79 22.23 21.50 21.10 20.60 20.31 –2.48

18 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61.97 61.02 58.36 58.04 58.36 57.40 –4.57

65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.24 16.75 20.14 20.86 21.04 22.28 7.04

   Zero scenario, total population. . . . . 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 X

Under 18 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22.79 22.25 20.88 19.57 18.86 18.40 –4.39

18 to 64 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61.97 60.70 57.52 56.94 56.57 55.04 –6.93

65 years and over. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15.24 17.06 21.60 23.49 24.57 26.55 11.31

X Not applicable. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
16 U.S. Census Bureau

is reached in 2028. For the low 

scenario, it occurs in 2026; and in 

2025 for the zero scenario. The 

size of the population aged 65 

and older is projected to exceed 

the population under the age of 18 

in all immigration scenarios. The 

date at which this occurs is earliest in the zero immigration scenario (2029), followed by the low 

immigration scenario (2031), and 

then the high (2045) (Figure 6).

Looking at the zero immigration scenario relative to the other 

projection scenarios illustrates 

how immigration helps to slow 

the pace of aging by adding to 

the population at the younger 

ages. Between 2016 and 2060, 

the zero immigration scenario 

projects declines in all age groups 

below 65 years. The population 

under the age of 18 is projected to 

decline by 15 million or 20 percent 

between 2016 and 2060, while 

the population aged 18 to 64 is 

projected to decline by 24 million 

(12 percent) over the same time 

period. In contrast, the population 

aged 65 and older is projected to 

nearly double between 2016 and 

2060, increasing from 49 million 

in 2016 to 85 million in 2060. The 

share of the U.S. population that is 

aged 65 or older in the zero scenario is projected to increase from 

15 percent in 2016 to 27 percent in 

2060. 

Figure 6.

Numeric Dierence Between the Population Under 18 and the Population Aged 65 and 

Older by Immigration Scenario: 2016 to 2060

In all migration scenarios, the population aged 65 and older will be larger than the child population by 2060.

Note: Dierences are calculated by subtracting the population aged 65 and older from the population aged 0 to 17. Years with 

negative dierences are years where the population aged 65 and older is larger than the population under the age of 18.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2016 2026 2036 2046 2056 2060

Main series Low immigration 

scenario

High immigration 

scenario 

Zero immigration 

scenario

Millions
U.S. Census Bureau 17

SUMMARIZING THE AGE STRUCTURE OF A POPULATION 

Demographers have a number of tools that they 

use to communicate the age structure of a population. Among the most common of these are 

median age, dependency ratios, and population 

pyramids. 

Median age (Table 7) tells the age at which half 

of a population is older and half of the population is younger. An increase in median age, such 

as we see in each of the population projection 

scenarios, provides evidence of population aging. 

Differences in the amount of increase help us to 

see which of the immigration scenarios produce 

the oldest population. In 2016, median age for the 

United States was 37.9 years. By 2060, median age 

in the main series is projected to increase to 42.9 

years. Projected increases in median age between 

2016 and 2060 range from a low of 4.0 years in 

the high scenario to 7.8 years in the zero scenario. 

The zero immigration scenario, which has the largest increase in the share of the population over 

the age of 65 between 2016 and 2060, also has 

the highest median age in 2060, 45.7. Looking at 

median age over time can give some information 

on how the age of the population is changing, but 

it is just one summary measure and therefore does 

not provide a complete picture of a population’s 

age distribution.

Dependency ratios (Table 8) are another summary measure used to describe age structure. 

Dependency ratios are an indicator of the potential 

burden of the dependent population, approximated by those under 18 years and those 65 years 

and over, on those in the working-age population. 

The ratios are calculated by dividing the number 

of people in the dependent age groups by the 

number in the working ages and then multiplying 

by 100. Growth in the old age dependency ratio 

over time, as we see in each of these scenarios, is 

consistent with the larger shares of the population 

in the oldest ages relative to the share of the population in the adult ages. Similarly, the youth dependency ratio in each of the scenarios decreases 

between 2016 and 2060, consistent with the 

decreasing shares of the population in the youngest ages. The high immigration scenario, which has 

the largest projected youth population in 2060, 

has the largest youth dependency ratio (35.4), 

while the zero immigration scenario has the largest 

old-age dependency ratio in 2060 (48.2). 

Population pyramids (Figure 7) differ slightly from 

the other two measures in that they are a visual 

tool for evaluating the age structure of the population. Population pyramids provide a comprehensive look at the age structure of the population by 

showing the share of the population in each age as 

opposed to providing a simple summary statistic 

like the other measures do. Looking at population pyramids from each of the scenarios for the 

same year shows the impact that migration has on 

the size of the population across age groups. The 

shape of the overall pyramid is similar for the main, 

low, and high scenarios, but the bars are longer in 

the high scenario relative to the others because 

there are more people in all age groups. In the zero 

immigration scenario, there is a narrowing of the 

base, which shows that the child and young adult 

population in this scenario is smaller in 2060 than 

the population in the older age groups. 
18 U.S. Census Bureau

A growing older population is not 

unique to the zero immigration 

scenario; all of the scenarios show 

projected increases in the size of 

the population that is aged 65 and 

older between 2016 and 2060. 

The largest increase is projected 

to occur in the high immigration 

scenario, where the population 

in this age group is expected to 

increase by 50 million, or 102 

percent, reaching just under 100 

million in 2060. Larger increases 

in the higher immigration scenario 

are not unexpected since those 

migrants who enter the population and remain are aged forward throughout the time series. 

Though the high immigration scenario shows the largest numeric 

and percentage increases in the 

population aged 65 and older, its 

increase in the share of the total 

population aged 65 and older 

between 2016 and 2060 is projected to be the smallest across 

the scenarios. By 2060, 22.3 

percent of the U.S. population is 

projected to be aged 65 or older 

in the high scenario, compared to 

23.4 in the main series, 24.3 in the 

low, and 26.6 in the zero. 

A decline in the share of the 

population under the age of 18 is 

also expected to occur across all 

immigration scenarios. In 2016, 

22.8 percent of the U.S. population was under the age of 18, but 

by 2060, this percentage is projected to drop to 20.3 in the high 

scenario, 19.8 in the middle, 19.4 in 

the low, and 18.4 in the zero. Aside 

from the zero immigration scenario, the low scenario is the only 

other scenario in which we are 

projecting numeric declines in the 

youth population. The population 

under the age of 18 is projected to 

decline by 602,000 (0.8 percent) 

between 2016 and 2060 in the 

low scenario. During this same 

time, it is projected to increase 

by 6.5 million (8.8 percent) in 

the main series and 17 million (23 

percent) in the high scenario. 

Again, this pattern of change is 

not unexpected. Higher levels of 

migration bring in more people 

at the younger ages who add 

to the population both through 

their presence and through their 

fertility. 

Table 7. 

Projected Median Age by Immigration Scenario: 2016 to 2060

Year

Main series

Alternative immigration scenario

Low High Zero

2016. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.9 37.9 37.9 37.9

2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.5 38.6 38.4 38.8

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40.1 40.4 39.6 41.2

2040. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.5 42.0 40.8 43.3

2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.3 42.9 41.5 44.5

2060. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42.9 43.7 41.9 45.7

Change: 2016 to 2060. . . 5.0 5.8 4.0 7.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

Table 8. 

Projected Dependency Ratios by Immigration Scenario:

2020 to 2060

Old-age dependency

Year

Main series

Alternative immigration scenario

Low High Zero

2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27.7 27.8 27.5 28.1

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.5 36.1 34.5 37.5

2040. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37.5 38.6 35.9 41.3

2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38.1 39.6 36.1 43.4

2060. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41.2 43.2 38.8 48.2

Youth dependency

Year

Main series

Alternative immigration scenario

Low High Zero

2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.5 36.6 36.4 36.6

2030. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36.7 36.6 36.8 36.3

2040. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35.8 35.3 36.4 34.4

2050. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34.8 34.3 35.3 33.3

2060. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34.9 34.5 35.4 33.4

Note: Dependency ratios are a measure of potential burden on the working-age population. Old-age dependency represents the population aged 65 and older divided by the 

working-age population (18 to 64 years old), and the youth ratio is the population aged 0 to 

17 divided by the working-age population. These values are multiplied by 100.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.
U.S. Census Bureau 19

Figure 7.

United States Population by Age and Sex in 2060 by Immigration Scenario

Reduced immigration decreases the size of the child population in 2060.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 National Population Projections.

 3 2 1 0 1 2 3

0

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

100 

Main series High immigration scenario

Low immigration scenario Zero immigration scenario

Age Male Female

 3 2 1 0 1 2 3

0

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

100 

Age Male Female

 3 2 1 0 1 2 3

0

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

100 

Age Male Female

 3 2 1 0 1 2 3

0

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

100 

Age Male Female

Millions Millions

Millions Millions
20 U.S. Census Bureau

SUMMARY

Population projections are a useful planning tool, but their utility 

is limited by the extent to which 

the assumptions about population 

change reflect the actual trends 

that occur in the future. The 

alternative scenarios of projections discussed throughout this 

report are a way of examining the 

impact that changing our assumptions about one component of 

population change—immigration—would have on the size and 

composition of the U.S. population 

in the years to come. Projecting 

international migration is challenging because it is influenced 

by political, economic, and social 

factors from both the sending and 

receiving nations. This creates 

a level of uncertainty that is not 

present in fertility and mortality. 

Creating projections with different migration scenarios is one way 

of addressing this uncertainty. 

By varying the levels of immigration, we get a range of potential 

outcomes for the size and composition of the U.S. population in the 

years to come. Different assumptions about international migration 

lead to changes in the projected 

growth of the total population, the 

racial and ethnic makeup of the 

population, and its age structure. 

Higher immigration produces a 

larger, younger, and more diverse 

population, while the absence of 

immigration over the next four 

decades will have the opposite 

result. 

DATA SOURCES AND 

METHODOLOGY

The projections in this report are 

the third series of national population projections based on the 2010 

Census. They project the total 

U.S. population as of July 1 for the 

years 2017 to 2060, using official 

population estimates for 2016 as 

the base population. When both 

population estimates and projections are available, estimates are 

the preferred data. The universe 

is the resident population of the 

United States (50 states and the 

District of Columbia). The 2017 

National Population Projections 

include projections of the resident population by age, sex, race, 

Hispanic origin, and nativity. 

The projections were produced 

using a cohort-component 

method beginning with an estimated base population for July 1, 

2016. In this method, the components of population change are 

projected separately for each birth 

cohort (persons born in a given 

year) based on past trends. For 

each year from 2017 to 2060, the 

population is advanced one year 

of age using the projected agespecific survival rates and levels of 

net international migration for that 

year. A new birth cohort is added 

to the population by applying the 

projected age-specific fertility 

rates to the female population. 

Births, adjusted for infant mortality and net international migration, 

form the new population under 

1 year old. In its simplest form, 

the cohort component method is 

expressed as: 

Pt=Pt-1+Bt-1,t-Dt-1,t+Mt-1,t

Where:

Pt = population at time t.

Pt-1 = population at time t-1.

Bt-1,t = births in the interval from 

time t-1 to time t.

Dt-1,t = deaths in the interval from 

time t-1 to time t. 

Mt-1,t = net migration in the interval 

from time t-1 to time t.

Projections produced through the 

cohort-component method are 

driven by assumptions regarding each of the components of 

change. In order to project the 

base population forward in this 

manner, separate projections of 

fertility, mortality, and net international migration are required to 

serve as inputs into the cohortcomponent model.

Historical mortality trends were 

calculated using the National 

Center for Health Statistics’ data 

on deaths and the U.S. Census 

Bureau’s population estimates 

for 1989 to 2014. Fertility trends 

were calculated using the National 

Center for Health Statistics’ birth 

data and the Census Bureau’s 

estimates of the female population. The time series included data 

from 1990 to 2014. Trends in net 

international migration were primarily based on decennial census 

and American Community Survey 

estimates on foreign-born immigration for the period from 1980 

to 2015.
U.S. Census Bureau 21

For more information on the data 

and methodology, see the report 

on 2017 National Population 

Projections: Methodology and 

Assumptions <www.census.gov

/programs-surveys/popproj

/technical-documentation

/methodology.html>.

DATA ACCURACY

The accuracy of the projections 

depend on the accuracy and validity of several data sources. First, 

the projections are based on the 

2010 Census, which may contain 

nonsampling error because of 

errors in enumeration such as 

undercounting or overcounting 

different demographic groups. 

Nonsampling error may be a 

byproduct of how a questionnaire 

is designed, how respondents 

interpret questions, how able or 

willing respondents are to provide 

correct answers, and how accurately the answers are coded and 

classified. Technical documentation for the 2010 Census is available at <www.census.gov/prod

/cen2010/doc/sf1.pdf>. 

Second, the projections use 

administrative records from 

the National Center for Health 

Statistics on births and deaths. 

Reporting error on the birth or 

death certificates would affect the 

population projections because 

these data are used to calculate 

fertility rates and mortality rates 

for the population. Third, the 

projections use the American 

Community Survey to assign 

nativity to the base population 

and calculate immigration and 

emigration rates of the foreignborn. Statistics that come from 

surveys are subject to nonsampling error, as noted above, as 

well as sampling error. The latter 

occurs because surveys measure 

the characteristics of a sample 

of people, instead of those of 

the entire population (as from a 

census). Sample-based estimates 

vary depending on the particular 

sample that is selected from the 

population, but all survey-based 

estimates attempt to approximate the actual figures from the 

population. Measures of the size 

of sampling error reflect variation 

in the estimates over all possible 

samples that could have been 

selected from the population 

using the same sampling, data collection, and processing methods. 

Technical documentation for the 

American Community Survey is 

available at <www.census.gov

/programs-surveys/acs

/methodology.html>.

Lastly, the projections did not 

attempt to predict future changes 

in policy or other factors, such 

as natural disasters or changing 

economic cycles, that might influence the population components 

and their magnitude of change. 

The projections are accurate 

only insofar as the assumptions 

about fertility, mortality, and 

net international migration hold 

true—assumptions that are based 

on historical trends. If the future 

trends or levels in fertility, mortality, or international migration 

differ radically from the historical 

patterns, then the population projections will be less accurate.

REFERENCES

Hogan, Howard, Jennifer Ortman, 

and Sandra Colby, “Projecting 

Diversity: The Methods, Results, 

Assumptions, and Limitations 

of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 

Population Projections,” West 

Virginia Law Review 117(3), 

2015.

Liebler, Carolyn, Sonya Porter, 

Leticia Fernandez, James Noon, 

and Sharon Ennis, “America’s 

Churning Races: Race and 

Ethnicity Response Changes 

between Census 2000 and the 

2010 Census,” Demography

54:259-284, 2017.

Mathews, Kelly, Jessica Phelan, 

Nicholas Jones, Sarah Konya, 

Rachel Marks, Beverly Pratt, 

Julia Coombs, and Michael 

Bentley, “2015 National

Content Test: Race and 

Ethnicity Analysis Report,”

U.S. Census Bureau, 2017,

<www.census.gov/programs

-surveys/decennial-census

/2020-census/planning

-management/final-analysis

/2015nct-race-ethnicity

-analysis.html>.

SUGGESTED CITATION

Johnson, Sandra, “A Changing 

Nation: Population Projections 

Under Alternative Migration 

Scenarios,” Current Population 

Reports, P25-1146, U.S. Census 

Bureau, Washington, DC, 2020.

CONTACT

Sandra Johnson

Sandra.leigh.johnson@census.gov

301-763-4217