# 2011,	2014,	2017,	2020,	2022	and

2027	SO 2 

# On‐Road	Emissions

Inventory	for	Campbell‐Clermont

Counties,

KY‐OH	1‐HOUR	SO 2



# Nonattainment	Area

REVISED

January	2015

P repared for the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and Kentucky Division for Air Quality

by

OKI Regional Council of Governments

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‐ Clermont Counties, KY

‐ OH SO2Nonattainment Area,

January 2015

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‐ Clermont Counties, KY

‐ OH SO2Nonattainment Area,

January 2015 

### Acknowledgments

Title 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2022 and 2027 SO2 On

‐ Road Emissions Inventory

for Campbell

‐ Clermont Counties, KY

‐ OH 1

‐ HOUR SO2 Nonattainment Area

Abstract This report was prepared for the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency.

The SO2 Nonattainment Area includes a portions of Campbell County

Kentucky and Clermont County Ohio. EPA’s Motor Vehicle Emission

Simulation (MOVES) 2014 was used to generate the emission inventory.

Date January 2015

Agency Ohio

‐ Kentucky

‐ Indiana Regional Council of Governments

Mark Policinski, Executive Director

Robert Koehler, P.E., Deputy Director

Project Manager Andrew J. Reser, AICP

Project Staff Larry Buckler

The preparation of this document was financed cooperatively by the Federal Highway Administration,

the Federal Transit Administration, the Commonwealth of Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, the Ohio

Department of Transportation, and the units of local and county government in the OKI region. The

opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this document are those of the OKI Regional Council of

Governments and are not necessarily those of the U.S. Department of Transportation. This report does

not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation.

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‐ Clermont Counties, KY

‐ OH SO2Nonattainment Area,

January 2015

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‐ Road SO2Emissions Inventory for Campbell

‐ Clermont Counties, KY

‐ OH SO2Nonattainment Area,

January 2015 

# 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2022 and 2027 SO 2 

# On

‐ Road

Emissions Inventory for Campbell

‐ Clermont Counties,

KY

‐ OH 1

‐ HOUR SO 2

This report was prepared for the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and the Kentucky Department

for Air Quality. The SO 2 nonattainment area includes a portion of Campbell County Kentucky and a

portion of Clermont County Ohio. EPA’s Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) 2014 model was

used to generate the vehicle emission inventory. Details on the various county data inputs used to

generate the SO 2 inventory are described in Tables 2 and 3.

Table 1 shows daily (tons per summer day) and annual (tons per year) on

‐ road SO 2 emissions for the

Nonattainment Area. Emissions within each state portion of the Nonattainment Area are also shown.

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the nonattainment area ranges from 510 million per year in 2011 to 570

million per year in 2027. Information on OKI’s process for developing forecasts of future travel patterns

is provided.

Table 1

Campbell

‐ Clermont KY

‐ OH SO 2 Nonattainment Area

‐ Daily On

‐ Road Emissions (tons per summer day)

2011 2014 2017 2020 2022 2027

Campbell

‐ Clermont

SO 2 Daily Mobile

Emissions 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.005

Campbell, KY (partial) 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.004

Clermont, OH (partial) 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001

Campbell

‐ Clermont KY

‐ OH SO 2 Nonattainment Area

‐ Annual On

‐ Road Emissions (tons per year)

2011 2014 2017 2020 2022 2027

Campbell

‐ Clermont

SO 2 Annual Mobile

Emissions 1.887 1.837 1.757 1.702 1.668 1.537

Campbell, KY (partial) 1.547 1.506 1.441 1.396 1.368 1.260

Clermont, OH (partial) 0.340 0.331 0.316 0.306 0.300 0.277

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‐ OH SO2Nonattainment Area,

January 2015 

### Mobile Source Emission Forecast Process

Emission Factor Model

OKI’s inventory assessment utilized U.S.EPA’s emissions model MOVES2014 to generate SO 2 emissions.

Table 3 summarizes the settings used in the MOVES run specification file. Table 4 lists the data used in

the MOVES County

‐ Data Manager. Further technical details on the use of MOVES are found in the

appendix to the OKI report “Mobile Source Emissions Inventory for Cincinnati PM2.5 Nonattainment

Area”

, revised December 2010.

Table 2



### MOVES Run Specications Parameter Settings

MOVES 2014 default database 20141021

Scale County, Emission Rates

Time Span Time aggregation = Hour

July and April weekday, July meteorological

data and annual average meteorological data

used in place of April data

All hours of day selected

Weekdays only

Geographic Bounds One Custom Domain for 3 Kentucky counties

Vehicles/Equipment All vehicle source types. Fuel types=gasoline,

diesel, ethanol and CNG

Road Type All road types including off

‐ network

Pollutants and Processes SO2. No emissions from refueling.

Strategies Default

General Output Units= grams, joules and miles

Output Emissions Time = hour, Location =county, on

‐ road

emission rates by road type and source use

type.

Advanced Performance none

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January 2015 Table 3

MOVES County Data Manager Data Source

Source Type Population Local and default. Local data from KYTC (2013) and ODOT (2010)

from motor vehicle registration data. Default data used for source

types 41, 61 and 62 in Ohio and types 61 and 62 in Kentucky.

Growth factor applied for future years.

Vehicle Type VMT Local and default. HPMSVTypeYear VMT=daily VMT from OKI travel

demand model with EPA’s daily to annual VMT converter applied.

monthVMTFraction

= default. dayVMTFraction=default,

hourVMTFraction=local.

I/M Programs No I/M program.

Fuel Formulation Default MOVES2014 fuel formulations. Reflects RFG program in KY.

Fuel Supply Default

Meteorology Data Local. MOBILE6 converted values for Ohio and Kentucky values

from Kentucky Division for Air Quality.

Ramp Fraction Local. OKI travel demand model.

Road Type Distribution Local. OKI travel demand model.

Age Distribution Local and default. Local data from KYTC (2013) and ODOT (2010)

from motor vehicle registration data. Default data used for source

types 41, 61 and 62 in Ohio and types 61 and 62 in Kentucky.

Average Speed Distribution Local. OKI travel demand model.



### OKI Travel Demand Model

Vehicle miles traveled and vehicle hours were estimated using the OKI Travel Demand Model Version

7.6. The OKI Travel Demand Model is composed of CUBE Voyager programs and a series of FORTRAN

programs written by OKI. It is a state of the practice model that uses the standard four phase sequential

modeling approach of trip generation, distribution, modal choice and assignment. The model uses

demographic and land use data and capacity and free

‐ flow speed characteristics for each roadway

segment in the network to produce a “loaded” highway network with forecasted traffic volumes with

revised speeds based on specified speed/capacity relationships.

Travel analysis zones are the basic geographic unit for estimating travel in the OKI model. The OKI region

is subdivided into 1608 traffic analysis zones to permit detail as well as manageability. A variety of

socioeconomic data items are used in the OKI transportation planning process. These data are used

primarily to forecast future travel patterns by serving as independent variables in OKI trip generation

equations. The following categories of planning data are utilized:

• Population (household and group quarter)

• Households

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‐ OH SO2Nonattainment Area,

January 2015 • Household vehicles

• Employment (by employment category and zone of work)

• Labor force participation (by zone of residence)

• Area type

The principal data requirements of the OKI travel demand forecasting model are population and

employment. From these variables, other characteristics including households, labor force, and personal

vehicles may be derived. Chapter 3 of OKI 2040 Regional Transportation Plan Update provides a

complete demographic overview of the region.

OKI utilizes both base year (2005), past year (2010) and future year data (2015, 2020, 2030, and 2040) in

the planning process. Planning data are maintained at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level, and originate

in the 2000 Census of Population and Housing. Base year 2005 and future year data for each variable are

developed through various methods. More detailed explanation of base year and future year data

generation for each of the above

‐ mentioned categories of planning data follows. All of the variables

represent the latest OKI planning assumptions.



### Population

Base and Future Year Data: Population data for base year 2005, past year 2010 and future years 2015,

2020, 2030, and 2040 originate with the 2000 Census of Population and Housing. Utilizing ArcGIS,

population data at the zonal level for 2000 was derived from the area proportion allocation of block

level population.

As a tri

‐ state regional planning agency, OKI uses the most current county level projections as prepared

by the respective state data centers (Ohio Department of Development Office of Strategic Research,

Kentucky State Data Center and Indiana Business Research Center) as control totals. Projections (years

2005 to 2040) were released by the Ohio state data center in 2011, the Indiana state data center in 2007

and the Kentucky State Data Center in 2009. Population projections at the zonal level are calculated by

multiplying household size by the projected zonal households. Household size is factored so that, in each

county, the sum of the zonal populations equals the control total.



### Households

Base Year Data: Household data for base year 2005 originates with the 2000 Census of Population and

Housing. Utilizing the geographic information system ArcGIS, household data at the zonal level for 2000

was derived from the area proportion allocation of block level households. Year 2000 household data

was updated to 2005 with residential building permits issued between January 2000 and December

2004. The residential building locations were geo

‐ coded in ArcGIS, and then aggregated to the TAZs. The

housing unit totals for each TAZ were converted to households by applying a vacancy rate, an

adjustment for permitted but unbuilt units, and subtracting demolitions (where data was available).

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‐ OH SO2Nonattainment Area,

January 2015 These households were then added to the year Census 2000 zonal household total to arrive at 2005

households for each TAZ.

Future Year Data: The preparation of household projections was accomplished by calculating the

number of households for a projected county population using ratios of householders to total

population by age specific cohorts derived from the 2000 Census for each analysis year. Disaggregation

to TAZs was determined by historical trends, existing and future land use, topography, flood plain

information, availability of land, local knowledge and other factors.



### Household Vehicles

Base and Future Year Data: Base and future year household vehicle data were obtained from the 2000

Census of Population and Housing. The 2000 Census was the only source of household vehicle data

available at the block group level at the time the data was developed. Average vehicles per household

were calculated for block groups then applied to the TAZs associated with each block group. The 2005,

2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040 vehicles per household level was held at the 2000 level based on the fact

that, since 2002, the number of vehicles per household has exceeded the number of drivers per

household.



### Labor Force

Base and Future Year Data: The OKI labor force is a function of the population as determined by a labor

force participation ratio (the number of employed persons in the labor force per persons 16 and over).

Household data for base year 2005 originates with the 2000 Census of Population and Housing. Utilizing

the geographic information system ArcGIS, household data at the zonal level for 2000 was derived from

the area proportion allocation of block group level employed labor force. The labor force projections for

2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2030, and 2040 were based on the most recent projections of national labor

force participation rates by age and sex cohorts from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor

Statistics for each of those years. These rates were then applied to the projected county age/sex cohorts

and adjusted to eliminate the unemployed to arrive at a county employed labor force control total.

Employed labor force at the zonal level is calculated by multiplying the labor force participation rate by

the zonal population. The labor force participation rate is adjusted so that, in each county, the sum of

the zonal labor force counts equals the control total.



### Employment

Base Year Data: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW or ES202) data for 2005 was

utilized as the primary tool to calculate employment at the zonal level. Individual business records

containing physical location, number of employees and North American Industry Classification System

(NAICS) code were geocoded through ArcGIS and aggregated to the TAZ level. This data set was

supplemented by other sources of data to complete the commuting employment picture in the OKI

region. Each zone’s employment was divided according to the NAICS code into three classes (retail,

office, industrial) based upon the potential for generating trips.

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January 2015 Future Year Data: For future year employment projection, calculation was first made of the

employment at the regional level. At the regional level, employment is a calculation of the region’s

employed labor force minus workers who live in the region but commute out to work, plus workers who

live outside the region but commute in to work. The regional total was disaggregated first to the county

level based on historic trends and expected changes in the county’s share of the region’s employment

and then to the TAZ level. Disaggregation to TAZs was determined by historical trends, existing and

future land use, topography, flood plain information, availability of land, local knowledge and other

factors.



### Area Type

Base and Future Year Data: For each analysis year, each TAZ is assigned an area type designation as

CBD, Urban, Suburban or Rural based on population and employment densities.



### Model Calibration

OKI’s Travel Demand Model has been validated to observed traffic volumes for the model base year

2005. The modeling network encompasses the entire ozone Maintenance area with the exception of

Clinton County, Ohio. The modeling network also includes Greene, Miami and Montgomery counties in

Ohio and the remainder of Dearborn County Indiana. The difference between estimated vehicle miles

traveled (VMT) and 2005 observed VMT is less than 1%. A highway screenline analysis compares the

screenline observed and simulated traffic volume discrepancies with the ODOT standard of maximum

desirable deviation. The comparison shows that the model performs at a satisfactory level and all the

errors were under the ODOT curve. Further information can be found in OKI’s 2007 report, “OKI/MVRPC

Travel Demand Model Methodology/Validation Report”. For the calibration, OKI used over 3000 traffic

counts collected through 2006 by the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT), the Kentucky

Transportation Cabinet, many county and local governments, transportation engineering consultants,

and OKI. These traffic counts cover nearly 50% percent of the links in the OKI portion of the modeling

network. The methodology provides consistency with past emission inventory and conformity analysis

work performed by OKI.



### Local Inputs and Post

‐ Model Processing

OKI incorporates a variety of sources of local data to both improve and confirm the accuracy of VMT, as

well as other travel

‐ related parameters. Free flow speeds used on the highway and transit networks are

based on travel time studies performed locally. The OKI post

‐ processing program, IMPACT, uses the

loaded highway network to generate VMT by hour, VMT by speed distribution and VMT by facility type.

These tables are then included as input into MOVES. Two separate sets of VMT tables are generated:

one for the four Ohio counties plus Dearborn County Indiana, and a second for the three Kentucky

counties. The VMT by hour tables utilize hourly traffic distribution and directional split factors for

different roadway types as developed by OKI. The main source of the data was the permanent traffic

counting stations located throughout the OKI region for the years of 2004

‐ 2006. This data was

supplemented with data collected at coverage count stations (locations with counts taken on only one

‐

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January 2015 two days). The stations were classified by area type: urban and rural, and functional classification:

freeway, arterial and collector. Speeds representing various “loaded” conditions (with traffic volumes)

are estimated using techniques from the 1997 Highway Capacity Manual. This permits the estimation of

speeds as conditions vary from hour to hour on the different facility types throughout the region. The

IMPACT program performs the appropriate summation by area and roadway type as well as regional

totals. OKI has also developed seasonal conversion factors to adjust traffic volumes to summer

conditions. The factors were derived from local data collected at permanent traffic counting stations

during 2004

‐ 2007 utilizing the average daily traffic monthly conversion factors for June, July and August.



### Use of SO2 Nonattainment Area District in Post

‐ Model Processing

U.S.EPA defined the census tracts included in the Campbell

‐ Clermont KY

‐ OH SO 2 Nonattainment area.

These same census tract boundaries were used to establish a “reporting district” in the OKI post

‐ model

processing. Average speed and VMT distribution by month, hour, vehicle type and road type were

generated for the SO 2 nonattainment area and used in the emission calculation. Emissions were further

split into Kentucky and Ohio portions based on the percentage of calculated nonattainment area VMT

within each state.