Projections of the Size and Composition of 

the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060

Population Estimates and Projections

Current Population Reports

By Sandra L. Colby and Jennifer M. Ortman

Issued March 2015

P25-1143

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

census.gov

INTRODUCTION

Between 2014 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, 

reaching 400 million in 2051. The U.S. population is 

projected to grow more slowly in future decades than 

in the recent past, as these projections assume that 

fertility rates will continue to decline and that there will 

be a modest decline in the overall rate of net international migration. By 2030, one in five Americans is 

projected to be 65 and over; by 2044, more than half 

of all Americans are projected to belong to a minority 

group (any group other than non-Hispanic White alone); 

and by 2060, nearly one in five of the nation’s total 

population is projected to be foreign born. 

This report summarizes results from the U.S. Census 

Bureau’s 2014 National Projections, with a focus on 

changes in the age structure and shifts in the racial and 

ethnic composition of the population—both the total 

population as well as the native and foreign born. 

2014 NATIONAL PROJECTIONS

This report is based on the 2014 National Projections 

of the resident population by age, sex, race, Hispanic 

origin, and country of birth (nativity), and include 

demographic components of change—births, deaths, 

and net international migration. The projections, based 

on the 2010 Census and official estimates through 

2013, were produced using cohort-component methods. Such methods project the components of population change separately for each birth cohort (persons 

born in a given year) based on past trends. The base 

population is advanced each year by using projected 

survival rates and net international migration. A new 

birth cohort is added to the population by applying the 

annual projected fertility rates to the female population. The projections cover the period 2014 to 2060. 

The 2014 National Projections are the first series of 

Census Bureau projections to incorporate separate 

assumptions about the fertility of native and foreignborn women. Differentiating assumptions about fertility by nativity is expected to better account for the 

effects of international migration of the foreign born 

on changes in the size and composition of the total 

U.S. population. 

The 2014 National Projections, including summary 

tables, downloadable files, and methodology and 

assumptions, can be found at <www.census.gov 

/population/projections/data/national/2014.html>.
2 U.S. Census Bureau

PROJECTED TRENDS IN 

POPULATION SIZE AND 

GROWTH

The total U.S. population is projected to increase by 98.1 million between 2014 and 2060. As 

shown in Figure 1, the population 

is expected to increase from just 

under 319 million in 2014 to just 

under 417 million in 2060. This 

corresponds to an average increase 

of 2.1 million people per year. 

Breaking the population down by 

nativity illustrates projected differences in the size of the native population relative to the foreign-born 

population. In 2014, the native 

population is projected to be 276 

million. Between 2014 and 2060, 

the native population is expected 

to increase by 62 million (or 22 percent), reaching 339 million in 2060. 

At the same time, the foreign-born 

population is projected to grow 

from 42 million to 78 million, an 

increase of 36 million (or 85 percent). The foreign born, because 

its rate of growth is projected to 

outpace that of natives, is expected 

to account for an increasing share 

of the total population, reaching 

19 percent in 2060, up from 13 

percent in 2014.

Figure 2 shows the projected rate 

of growth of the native and 

foreign-born populations by 

decade. Between 2010 and 2020, 

the foreign-born population is 

projected to increase by nearly 20 

percent, compared with only 6.4 

percent for natives. In the decades 

that follow, the pace of growth is 

projected to slow for both populations, while the substantial gap 

between the rates of the foreign 

born and natives will narrow. 

Between 2050 and 2060, the 

foreign born are expected to grow 

by 8.2 percent, compared with 3.8 

percent for natives. 

Factors Contributing to 

Population Growth

Changes in the size of the population are driven by the projected 

number of births, deaths, and 

net international migrants. Some 

components, such as births, are 

those that increase the size of the 

population, while others, such as 

deaths, are those that decrease the 

population. Net international migration can either add to or subtract 

Figure 1.

U.S. Population by Nativity: 2014 to 2060

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections.

Native born Foreign born

(Population in millions)

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

42.3

276.4

47.9

286.6

56.9

302.5

65.1

315.1

72.3

326.0

78.2

338.6

13.3

318.7

334.5

359.4

380.2

398.3

416.8

Percent foreign born

14.3 15.8 17.1 18.2 18.8

UNDERSTANDING THE ASSUmPTIONS USED TO mAkE 

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Projections illustrate possible courses of population change based 

on assumptions about future births, deaths, and net international 

migration. The projected values presented throughout this report 

are one possible outcome for the future that would occur only if 

all the assumptions hold true. All assumptions about the components of change are based on historical trends. Factors that might 

influence the levels of population components, policy decisions for 

example, cannot be predicted with any degree of certainty. Therefore, no attempts are made to incorporate these into the assumptions that produce the projections. Both the size and the composition of the projected population reflect the assumptions included in 

these projections. The accuracy of the projections will depend on 

how closely actual trends in fertility, mortality, and migration are 

consistent with these assumptions. 
U.S. Census Bureau 3

from the population depending on 

whether more people are entering 

or exiting. For the total population, the projected increase of 98.1 

million between 2014 and 2060 is 

the result of adding 196.6 million 

births and 64.1 million migrants, 

and subtracting 162.6 million 

deaths during those years. (See 

Figure 3).

Determining the contributions of 

the native and foreign-born populations to the overall growth of 

the U.S. population is not quite 

as straightforward. While deaths 

decrease the population and net 

international migration increases 

the population for both the native 

and foreign-born populations, births 

contribute exclusively to the growth 

of the native population. Projected 

trends in the size of the native 

population presented throughout 

this report reflect the cumulative 

change from births, deaths, and net 

migrants to natives. For the foreignborn population, growth results 

from migration of the foreign born 

and deaths to this population. 

The birth component reflects the 

fertility of both native and foreignborn women. Although it does not 

directly factor into the growth of 

the foreign-born population, it is 

an important means through which 

the foreign born contribute to the 

growth of the nation. Of the 196.6 

million births projected to occur 

between 2014 and 2060, 39.8 

million (20.3 percent) are births 

to foreign-born women. When 

the fertility of the foreign born 

is accounted for, the share of the 

overall growth in the U.S. population that is attributable to the 

foreign born is actually somewhat 

larger than would be otherwise 

observed if one were to look exclusively at changes in the size of the 

foreign-born population. 

Figure 2.

Change in Population Size by Nativity: 2010–2020 to 

2050–2060

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections, and 2010 American Community 

Survey.

Native born

(In percent)

2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2040–2050 2050–2060

6.4

19.9

18.7

14.5

11.0

8.2

5.6

4.2

3.5 3.8

Foreign born

Figure 3.

Numeric Change in Population and Components 

of Population Change: 2014–2060

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections.

Net international 

migration

Total population Births Deaths

change, 

2014 to 2060

(In millions)

98.1

= – +

196.6

64.1

162.6

39.8 (20.3%)

foreign-born

mothers

156.8 (79.7%)

native-born 

mothers
4 U.S. Census Bureau

AGE COmPOSITION

As shown in Figure 4, the population is projected to age over the 

coming decades, with a higher proportion of the nation’s total population in the older ages (65 and over). 

Overall, the percentage of the total 

population that is under the age of 

18 is projected to decrease from 

23 percent to 20 percent between 

2014 and 2060. Similarly, the 

working-age population is projected 

to decrease from 62 percent to 57 

percent of the total population over 

the same interval. In contrast, the 

percentage of the population that 

is aged 65 and over is expected to 

grow from 15 percent to 24 percent, 

an increase of 9 percentage points.

Although these trends are expected 

for both the native and foreignborn populations, the aging of the 

foreign-born population is projected to be more pronounced. In 

the native population, the percentage of the population that is aged 

18 to 64 is projected to decrease 

by 5 percentage points between 

2014 and 2060, while the foreignborn population in the working 

ages is projected to decrease by 

16 percentage points during that 

time. Similarly, while the projected 

increase in the 65 and older population between 2014 and 2060 is 

7 percentage points in the native 

population (from 15 percent to 22 

percent), the foreign-born population is projected to experience 

growth of 18 percentage points 

in this same age group (from 14 

percent to 32 percent).

Figure 4.

Age Distribution of the Population by Nativity: 2014 to 2060

(Percent of group’s total population)

Under 18 18 to 64 65 and older

Total

Native born

Foreign born

62

61

58

58

58

57

80

78

73

69

65

64

60

58

55

56

56

55

Note: The percentages for each group in each year may not add to 100 due to rounding.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections.

23

22

21

21

20

20

6

5

5

5

4

4

15

17

21

22

22

24

14

17

22

27

30

32

15

17

20

20

21

22

26

25

24

24

24

23

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2014

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2014

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2014
U.S. Census Bureau 5

The foreign-born population is 

projected to be concentrated in 

the adult ages, with fewer than 10 

percent of its population aged 17 

and under, as compared with nearly 

a quarter of the native population. 

This youth population is predominately native because all children 

born in the United States (including children born to foreign-born 

 mothers) are considered native, and 

also because rates of international 

migration are comparatively low in 

these ages.

Figure 5 presents the projected size 

of the population by age group. A 

line is also included to indicate the 

percentage foreign born in the age 

group for each year. The population in each of these age groups 

is expected to increase between 

2014 and 2060. However, the total 

change is not distributed equally 

across the age groups. The youth 

population, defined as those under 

18, is projected to experience the 

least amount of change, increasing 

slightly from 74 million in 2014 

to 82 million in 2060. Conversely, 

the older population is projected 

to more than double in size from 

46 million to 98 million over this 

period. For the older population, 

the biggest increase is expected 

in the decade from 2020 to 2030, 

when the population aged 65 and 

over is projected to increase by 

18 million (from 56 million to 74 

million). The timing of this increase 

is related to the aging of the baby 

boom generation. The baby boomers began turning 65 in 2011 and 

Figure 5.

Population by Selected Age Group and Nativity: 2014 to 2060

115 120

127 129 132 136

Population in millions

Under 18 18 to 44

45 to 64 65 and older

Percent foreign born

74 74 76 78 80 82

46

56

74

82

88

98

83 84 82

91

98 100

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections.

17.3 17.2 16.9 17.6 18.1 18.5

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

3.4 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.0

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

13.2 14.3

21.2

16.9

24.9 25.8

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

16.5 19.9

24.4 24.2 23.8 24.5

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
6 U.S. Census Bureau

by 2030 they all will be aged 65 

and older. The impact of this can 

also be seen in the figure for ages 

45 to 64, where the population 

is expected to decrease between 

2020 and 2030, as the baby boomers age out of this group. The population aged 18 to 44 is projected 

to increase steadily throughout the 

projection period, from 115 million 

in 2014 to 136 million in 2060.

In addition to showing the population by age, Figure 5 includes the 

percentage of the population in 

each age group that is foreign born. 

The share of the youth population 

that is foreign born is projected to 

remain low throughout the projection period, ranging from a low of 

3.3 percent in 2020 to a high of 4 

percent in 2050 and 2060. Likewise, the share of the population 

aged 18 to 44 that is foreign born is 

projected to remain stable between 

2014 and 2060. Approximately 17 

to 18 percent of the population in 

this age group is projected to be 

foreign born in all years. 

More variation is expected in the 

distribution of the two older age 

groups by nativity. The trends 

projected for these groups reflect 

the aging of both the baby boomers and the foreign born. In 2060, 

the total population aged 45 to 64 

is projected to be just over 100 

million, up from 83 million in 2014. 

Between 2014 and 2030, the share 

of the population aged 45 to 64 

that is foreign born is projected 

to increase from 17 to 24 percent, 

with the largest increase shown 

to occur between 2020 and 2030. 

From 2030 to 2060, the share of 

the population that is foreign born 

in these ages is projected to remain 

stable at around 24 percent. 

For the oldest age group, those 

65 and over, the foreign-born 

population is expected to nearly 

double its share, increasing from 

13 percent in 2014 to 26 percent 

in 2060. As was discussed earlier, 

the share of the population that is 

aged 65 and older is expected to 

increase within both the native and 

foreign-born populations, however, the percentage increase is 

projected to be much larger for the 

foreign born. This helps to explain 

the increase in the proportion of 

the population aged 65 and older 

that is foreign born. 

Table 1 provides additional information on projected changes in 

the population by age, allowing 

for comparisons between the 

native and foreign-born populations within particular age groups. 

For the youngest age group, under 

18, the foreign-born population 

is projected to increase from just 

over 2.5 million in 2014 to around 

3.3 million in 2060, an increase of 

29.8 percent. In comparison, the 

native population under age 18 is 

projected to increase by only 8.4 

percent between 2014 and 2060, 

corresponding to the increase from 

71 million in 2014 to 79 million in 

2060. The percentage increase projected for the period 2014 to 2060 

is similar for both the native and 

foreign-born populations aged 18 

Table 1.

Population by Nativity and Age Group: 2014 to 2060

(Population in thousands)

Nativity and age group Population Change, 2014 to 2060

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Number Percent

Total

 All ages . . . . . . . . . . 318,748 334,503 359,402 380,219 398,328 416,795 98,047 30 .8

Under 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73,591 74,128 76,273 78,185 79,888 82,309 8,718 11 .8

18 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115,426 120,073 126,588 128,669 132,371 136,310 20,884 18 .1

45 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83,477 83,861 82,434 91,021 98,074 100,013 16,536 19 .8

65 and older . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46,255 56,441 74,107 82,344 87,996 98,164 51,909 112 .2

Natives

 All ages . . . . . . . . . . 276,398 286,611 302,545 315,103 326,030 338,564 62,166 87 .5

Under 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71,083 71,683 73,486 75,189 76,735 79,055 7,972 8 .4

18 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95,441 99,369 105,145 106,053 108,433 111,141 15,699 22 .5

45 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69,717 67,196 62,302 68,986 74,761 75,493 5,776 14 .4

65 and older . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40,157 48,362 61,612 64,876 66,101 72,876 32,719 77 .3

Foreign Born

 All ages . . . . . . . . . . 42,350 47,892 56,857 65,116 72,299 78,230 35,881 84 .7

Under 18 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2,508 2,445 2,787 2,996 3,153 3,254 746 29 .8

18 to 44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,984 20,704 21,443 22,616 23,937 25,169 5,185 25 .9

45 to 64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13,760 16,665 20,132 22,035 23,313 24,520 10,760 78 .2

65 and older . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,098 8,079 12,495 17,469 21,895 25,288 19,190 314 .7

Source: U .S . Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections .
U.S. Census Bureau 7

to 44. In this age group, the native 

population is projected to increase 

by 22.5 percent compared to 25.9 

percent for the foreign born. Patterns of growth in the older ages 

vary by nativity, with a larger percentage increase projected for the 

foreign-born population in both the 

45 to 64 year-old age group and 

the 65 and older age group. In the 

45 to 64 year age group, both the 

numeric and percentage changes 

between 2014 and 2060 are projected to be larger for the foreign 

born. The foreign-born population 

in this age group is projected to 

increase by over 10.7 million (78.2 

percent) compared to an increase 

of just 5.7 million (14.4 percent) 

for natives. The difference in the 

proportional growth of the population by nativity for the 65 and older 

age group is more pronounced. The 

foreign-born population aged 65 

and older is projected to increase 

by over 300 percent between 2014 

and 2060, from 6 million in 2014 

to 25 million in 2060. In comparison, the native population aged 65 

and over is projected to grow from 

40 million in 2014 to 73 million in 

2060, an increase of 77 percent.

Dependency ratios offer another 

way to examine the changing age 

structure of the younger as well 

as older populations. Dependency 

ratios are an indicator of the 

potential burden of the dependent 

population, approximated by those 

under 18 years and those 65 and 

older, on those in the workingage population. The ratios are 

calculated by dividing the number 

of people in the dependent age 

groups by the number in the working ages and then multiplying by 

100. Old-age dependency is the 

ratio of individuals 65 and older 

relative to the population aged 18 

to 64, while youth dependency is 

the ratio of individuals under the 

age of 18 relative to the population 

aged 18 to 64. Total dependency 

is the sum of the population under 

age 18 and those 65 and over relative to the population aged 18 to 64.

Due to the increasing share of the 

population that is 65 and older, the 

old-age dependency ratio is projected to increase, surpassing the 

youth dependency ratio in 2033 

(see Figure 6). The old-age dependency ratio is projected to continue 

to increase after 2033, while the 

youth dependency ratio is projected 

to decrease slightly. The increase in 

the old-age dependency ratio is projected to drive the overall increase 

in the total dependency ratio. 

Figure 6.

Dependency Ratios: 2014 to 2060

Note: Old-age dependency = (Population aged 65 and over/Population aged 18 to 64)*100.

Youth dependency = (Population under 18/Population aged 18 to 64)*100.

Total dependency = ((Population aged 65 and over + Population under 18)/Population aged 18 to 64)*100.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections.

Ratio

Old-age dependency Total dependency Youth dependency

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
8 U.S. Census Bureau

According to these projections, 

there will be 76 people under age 

18 and 65 or older for every 100 

individuals aged 18 to 64 by 2060.

Figure 7 shows the age and sex 

structure of the U.S. population 

by nativity in 2014 and in 2060. 

The dark purple bars represent the 

size of the foreign-born population 

and the light purple bars represent the native population. The 

age structure of the foreign-born 

population is quite different than 

that of the native population. In 

2014, the majority of the foreign 

born are concentrated in the ages 

20 to 60. By 2060, the core of the 

foreign-born population is projected to expand to include the 

ages between 60 and 80, as the 

current population grows older and 

the population in the working ages 

is sustained through the arrival of 

new foreign-born individuals. In 

contrast, the native population is 

more evenly distributed across the 

ages 65 and under in 2014, with 

notable exceptions including the 

bulges associated with the baby 

boom (ages 50 to 68) and the echo 

boom (approximate ages of 13 to 

33).1 In the 2060 pyramid, these 

bulges are no longer apparent in 

the native population. Both the 

native and foreign-born populations are projected to see increases 

in the size of the older population 

in 2060. 

RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN

The United States is projected to 

become more racially and ethnically 

diverse in the coming years. Table 

2 presents projections of the size 

and distribution of the population 

by race and Hispanic origin in 2014 

and 2060. The top panel shows the 

race of those reporting to have a 

single race (97.5 percent in 2014) 

as well as those reporting two or 

more races (2.5 percent). The middle panel shows all those reporting 

to have each race, either alone or 

in combination with others.2 The 

lower panel shows those who were 

Hispanic and non-Hispanic (17.4 

percent and 82.6 percent respectively in 2014).

1 The echo boom refers to the children 

born to baby boomers. 2 Accounting for those who report their 

race alone or in combination has the largest 

impact on the American Indian and Alaska 

Native and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific 

Islander populations. The American Indian 

and Alaska Native population alone or in 

combination with other races (6.5 million) is 

projected to be 65 percent larger than those 

reporting that race alone (4.0 million) in 

2014. The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific 

Islander population alone or in combination 

with other races (1.5 million) is projected to 

be 99 percent larger than those reporting that 

race alone (734 thousand) in 2014. 

Figure 7.

Age and Sex Structure of the Population by Nativity: 

2014 and 2060

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections.

Male

Age

Millions

Female

Female

2014

Native born Foreign born

3 2 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100+

Male

2060

3210

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100+

0123

1 2 3
U.S. Census Bureau 9

The non-Hispanic White alone 

population is currently the “majority” group, as it is both the largest racial and ethnic group and 

accounts for greater than a 50 

percent share of the nation’s total 

population. However, by 2060, the 

share of this group is projected to 

be just 44 percent, as its population falls from 198 million in 2014 

to 182 million in 2060 (see Table 

2). The point at which the nonHispanic White alone population 

will comprise less than 50 percent 

of the nation’s total population 

has been described as the point 

at which we become a “majorityminority” nation.3 According to 

these projections, the majorityminority crossover will occur in 

2044. While the non-Hispanic White 

alone population is projected to 

remain the largest single group, no 

group will have a majority share of 

the total and the United States will 

3 Minority is defined in this report as any 

group other than non-Hispanic White alone.

become a “plurality” of racial and 

ethnic groups. 

The Two or More Races population is projected to be the fastest 

growing over the next 46 years 

(see Table 2), with its population expected to triple in size (an 

increase of 226 percent). This 

group is projected to increase from 

8 million to 26 million between 

2014 and 2060. Its share of the 

total population is projected to 

increase from 2.5 percent in 2014 

to 6.2 percent in 2060. 

The Asian population is projected 

to be the second fastest-growing 

group, with an increase of 128 

percent projected for the Asian 

alone population and an increase of 

143 percent projected for the Asian 

alone or in combination population 

(see Table 2). In 2014, the Asian 

alone group is projected to account 

for 5.4 percent of the total population. This group is projected to see 

its share of the total nearly double, 

accounting for 9.3 percent of the 

total population in 2060. 

The Hispanic population is projected to be the third fastest 

growing (see Table 2). The Hispanic 

population is projected to increase 

from 55 million in 2014 to 119 

million in 2060, an increase of 115 

percent. In 2014, Hispanics are 

projected to account for 17 percent 

of the U.S. population. By 2060, 29 

percent of the United States is projected to be Hispanic—more than 

one-quarter of the total population. 

The Native Hawaiian and Other 

Pacific Islander population is projected to increase 63 percent for 

this race group alone, and increase 

101 percent when the group is 

considered alone or in combination 

with other races (see Table 2). Such 

large differences in growth rates 

highlight the impact that accounting for race in combination with 

other races can have, particularly 

for some of the less populous race 

Table 2. 

Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2014 and 2060

(Population in thousands)

Race and Hispanic origin1 2014 2060 Change, 2014 to 2060

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

 Total population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 318,748 100 .0 416,795 100 .0 98,047 30 .8

One Race . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 310,753 97 .5 390,772 93 .8 80,020 25 .8

 White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 246,940 77 .5 285,314 68 .5 38,374 15 .5

 Non-Hispanic White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198,103 62 .2 181,930 43 .6 –16,174 –8 .2

 Black or African American . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42,039 13 .2 59,693 14 .3 17,654 42 .0

 American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3,957 1 .2 5,607 1 .3 1,650 41 .7

 Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17,083 5 .4 38,965 9 .3 21,882 128 .1

 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . . . . . 734 0 .2 1,194 0 .3 460 62 .6

Two or More Races . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,995 2 .5 26,022 6 .2 18,027 225 .5

Race Alone or in Combination2

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254,009 79 .7 309,567 74 .3 55,558 21 .9

Black or African American . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45,562 14 .3 74,530 17 .9 28,968 63 .6

American Indian and Alaska Native . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6,528 2 .0 10,169 2 .4 3,640 55 .8

Asian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19,983 6 .3 48,575 11 .7 28,592 143 .1

Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander . . . . . . . . . . . 1,458 0 .5 2,929 0 .7 1,470 100 .8

Hispanic or Latino Origin

Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55,410 17 .4 119,044 28 .6 63,635 114 .8

Not Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263,338 82 .6 297,750 71 .4 34,412 13 .1

1

 Hispanic origin is considered an ethnicity, not a race . Hispanics may be of any race . Responses of “Some Other Race” from the 2010 Census are modified . For 

more information, see <www .census .gov/popest/data/historical/files/MRSF-01-US1 .pdf> . 2 “In combination” means in combination with one or more other races . The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population, and 100 percent, 

because individuals may report more than one race .

Source: U .S . Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections .
10 U.S. Census Bureau

groups. The Native Hawaiian and 

Other Pacific Islander population 

(either alone or in combination 

with other races) is projected to 

represent less than 1 percent of the 

nation’s total population in both 

2014 and 2060. 

The remaining two groups, Black 

and American Indian and Alaska 

Native, are projected to see modest growth in their populations 

over the next 46 years (see Table 

2).4 Between 2014 and 2060, the 

Black alone population is projected 

to increase from 42 million to 60 

million—an increase of 42 percent. 

Its share of the total population is 

projected to increase slightly from 

4 The terms “Black” and “Black or African 

American” are used interchangeably in this 

report.

13 percent in 2014 to 14 percent 

in 2060. The American Indian and 

Alaska Native alone population is 

projected to increase from 4 million 

in 2014 to 5.6 million in 2060. Its 

share of the total population is projected to remain stable at just over 

1 percent. 

The racial and ethnic composition 

of the United States is markedly 

different when looking at just children, under 18 years of age. Figure 

8 compares the distribution of the 

total and the child populations by 

race and Hispanic origin in 2014 

and 2060 to illustrate how diverse 

the child population is compared 

with the total. This figure presents results for the non-Hispanic 

population by race and aggregates 

Hispanics, of any race, into one 

category so that the sum of the 

percentages for the groups for a 

given year equals 100. The percentage minority is also shown at the 

bottom, as a way to summarize the 

trends in diversity over time. 

A much smaller percentage of the 

child population is non-Hispanic 

White alone, as compared with 

the total population. In 2014, 52 

percent of children are projected 

to be non-Hispanic White alone, 

compared with 62 percent of the 

total population. Thus, among 

those under age 18, the United 

States is already nearly a majorityminority nation. The percentage 

of the population in this group is 

projected to decrease to only 36 

percent by 2060. Put another way, 

by 2060, 64 percent of children will 

Figure 8.

Distribution of the Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the Total Population 

and Population Under 18: 2014 and 2060

Note: The percentages for the total population or the population under 18 may not add to 100.0 due to rounding.

Unless otherwise specified, race categories represent race alone. NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, AIAN=American 

Indian and Alaska Native. Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic White alone population. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections.

Non-Hispanic 62.2

43.6

12.4

13.0

0.2

0.2

2.0

4.9

17.4

28.6

37.8

56.4

0.7

0.6

5.2

9.1

Total

2014

2060

Minority

Hispanic

Two or

 More Races

NHPI

Asian

AIAN

Black

White 52.0

35.6

13.8

13.2

0.2

0.2

4.1

8.9

24.4

48.0

33.5

64.4

37.8

56.4

0.9

0.6

4.7

7.9

Under 18
U.S. Census Bureau 11

belong to racial and ethnic minorities, compared with 56 percent for 

the total population (see Figure 8). 

The percentages of the population 

in the non-Hispanic Two or More 

Races and the Hispanic groups are 

higher for children than for the 

total population, again reflecting 

the greater diversity of the child 

population relative to the total 

population. In 2014, 2 percent of 

the total population is non-Hispanic 

Two or More Races, compared 

with over 4 percent of the child 

population. The total population is 

projected to be 17 percent Hispanic 

in 2014 and 29 percent Hispanic in 

2060. In contrast, nearly one-quarter (24 percent) of the child population is projected to be Hispanic 

in 2014, and this group’s share is 

projected to increase to 34 percent 

in 2060. 

The pattern of change from 2014 

to 2060 is similar for the total 

population and for children in most 

race and ethnic groups (see Figure 

9), however, the child population 

is projected to experience smaller 

overall growth than the total population across all race and ethnic 

groups. The overall rates of fertility 

in the United States are projected 

to decrease over this period, leading to smaller growth of the child 

population. The total population 

maintains a higher rate of growth 

due to the dual impact of projected 

increases in net international 

migration and life expectancy. 

Between 2014 and 2060, the total 

population is projected to increase 

by 31 percent, while the number of 

children is projected to increase by 

12 percent. Most race and ethnic 

groups are projected to experience 

growth between 2014 and 2060, 

with the largest rates of growth 

projected for the non-Hispanic Two 

or More Races, non-Hispanic Asian, 

and Hispanic groups. The exceptions to this trend are non-Hispanic 

White children and non-Hispanic 

American Indian and Alaska Native 

children. The total non-Hispanic 

White alone population is projected to decrease by 8 percent, 

while the number of non-Hispanic 

White alone children is projected 

to decrease by 23 percent. The 

number of single race non-Hispanic 

American Indian and Alaska Native 

children is projected to decrease by 

20 percent. 

The racial and ethnic distribution of 

the foreign-born population differs 

substantially from natives (see Figure 10). Moreover, while the composition of the native population 

is projected to shift with a decline 

in the percentage non-Hispanic 

White and increase in the percentage minority, there is little shift 

projected for the distribution of the 

foreign born. Non-Hispanic White is 

projected to remain the largest race 

and ethnic group among natives, 

while just 19 percent of the foreign 

born is projected to belong to this 

group in both 2014 and 2060. 

Hispanic is the largest foreign-born 

group, followed by non-Hispanic 

Asian. 

Figure 9.

Change in Total Population and Population Under 18 by Race and 

Hispanic Origin: 2014 to 2060

Note: Unless otherwise specified, race categories represent race alone. NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, AIAN=American Indian 

and Alaska Native. Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic White alone population. 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections.

145.7

30.8

11.8

-8.2

-23.4 -20.1

12.5

37.0

129.1

7.5

86.7

66.7

20.5

218.9 (In percent) Total population

Non-Hispanic

Under 18

53.6

94.7

50.0

114.8

Hispanic Minority

Two or

White Black AIAN Asian NHPI More Races

Total
12 U.S. Census Bureau

The composition of the foreignborn population is driven by the 

projected characteristics of those 

migrating into and out of the 

United States. In this series of 

projections, the overall level of net 

international migration is projected 

to increase, but the racial and ethnic characteristics of the migrants 

are not assumed to change very 

much over the 46-year period. 

In contrast, the composition of 

the native population is driven in 

large part by projected births. As 

observed in the trends for the child 

population, the younger population 

is becoming more diverse, resulting 

in a shift in the overall composition 

of the total population that is taking place mostly within the native 

segment. 

CONCLUSION

Over the next four decades, as fertility rates are projected to continue 

to fall and modest increases are 

projected for the overall level of 

net international migration, the U.S. 

population is projected to grow 

more slowly. Growth of the foreignborn population is projected to 

exceed that of natives, resulting in 

an increasing share of the future 

U.S. population that is foreign born. 

Differences in growth between the 

two groups are projected to taper 

over time, and the distribution of 

the population by nativity is projected to remain relatively stable in 

the last decades of the projections. 

The population is projected to 

continue aging, reflected in the 

growth of the percentage of the 

population that is in the older ages. 

Over the next 16 years, the aging 

of the baby boomers will drive up 

the ranks of the native population 

at ages 65 and over, while similarly 

Figure 10.

Distribution of the Native-Born and Foreign-Born Populations by Race and 

Hispanic Origin: 2014 and 2060

Note: The percentages for each group in each year may not add to 100.0 due to rounding. 

Unless otherwise specified, race categories represent race alone. NHPI=Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, AIAN=American 

Indian and Alaska Native. Minority refers to everyone other than the non-Hispanic White alone population.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 National Projections.

Non-Hispanic 68.8

49.4

13.0

13.3

0.2

0.2

2.1

5.8

13.0

25.5

31.2

50.6

0.8

0.8

2.0

5.0

Native born

2014

2060

Minority

Hispanic

Two or

 More Races

NHPI

Asian

AIAN

Black

White

18.8

18.8

8.1

11.4

0.3

0.3

25.8

26.8

1.1

1.0

24.4

40.8

41.6

45.8

81.2

81.2

37.8

0.1

0.1

4.7

7.9

Foreign born
U.S. Census Bureau 13

the aging of the current foreignborn population will contribute 

to increases in the share of the 

foreign-born population that is 

aged 65 and over. 

The U.S. population is also projected to become more diverse, as 

seen in the projected increases in 

the percentage of the population 

that is a minority—groups other 

than non-Hispanic White alone. By 

2044, the United States is projected to become a plurality nation. 

While the non-Hispanic White alone 

population will still be the largest, 

no race or ethnic group is projected 

to have greater than a 50 percent 

share of the nation’s total. Shifts in 

the racial and ethnic composition of 

the future population are projected 

to occur primarily within the native 

population, which will become 

majority-minority by 2044. The 

child population within the United 

States is even more diverse and is 

projected to experience the majorityminority crossover in 2020, just 6 

years into the future. 

DATA SOURCES AND 

mETHODOLOGY

This report uses projections of the 

total U.S. population as of July 1 for 

the years 2014 to 2060. When both 

population estimates and projections are available, estimates are 

the preferred data.5 The universe 

5 While projections and estimates may 

appear similar, there are some distinct differences between the two measures. Estimates 

are for the past and present, while projections are based on assumptions about future 

demographic trends. Estimates generally use 

existing data collected from various sources, 

while projections make assumptions about 

what demographic trends will be in the 

future. Data users may find both an estimate 

and a projection available for the same date 

(e.g., July 2011), which may not agree. In 

such cases, estimates are the preferred data, 

unless the user’s objective is to compare the 

number with others in the projected series.

is the resident population of the 

United States (50 states and the 

District of Columbia). 

The projections are based on the 

2010 Census and were produced 

using a cohort-component method, 

which uses the components of 

population change (births, deaths, 

and net international migration) 

to project forward. The assumptions for the components of change 

are based on time series analysis. 

Historical mortality trends were 

calculated using the National 

Center for Health Statistics’ data on 

deaths and the U.S. Census Bureau’s 

population estimates for 1989 to 

2012. Fertility trends were calculated using the National Center for 

Health Statistics’ birth data and 

the Census Bureau’s estimates of 

the female population. The time 

series included data from 1990 to 

2012. Trends in net international 

migration were primarily based on 

decennial census and American 

Community Survey estimates on 

foreign-born immigration for the 

period from 1980 to 2012.

The methodology for the projections used in this report is available 

at <www.census.gov/population 

/projections/methodology/>. 

All derived values were computed 

using unrounded data. In the text, 

figures, and tables, most whole 

numbers were rounded to the nearest thousand or million, and most 

decimals were rounded to the nearest tenth or whole number.

DATA ACCURACY

These projections are based on the 

2010 Census and may, therefore, 

contain nonsampling error due 

to potential enumeration errors 

such as differential undercoverage 

or overcoverage by demographic 

characteristics. Technical documentation for the 2010 Census is available at <www.census.gov 

/prod/cen2010/doc/sf1.pdf>. Nonsampling error also exists as the 

assumptions for the components of 

change were based on time series 

analysis. No attempts were made to 

predict future changes in policy or 

other factors that might influence 

levels of the population components and their directions. Thus, if 

actual trends or levels in fertility, 

mortality, or international migration 

differ radically from the assumed 

trends and levels, the population 

projections will be less accurate.

SUGGESTED CITATION

Colby, Sandra L. and Jennifer M. 

Ortman, Projections of the Size and 

Composition of the U.S. Population: 

2014 to 2060, Current Population 

Reports, P25-1143, U.S. Census 

Bureau, Washington, DC, 2014.

CONTACTS

U.S. Census Bureau 

Customer Service Center 

301-763-2422 or 1-866-758-1060 

(toll-free) or visit 

<www.census.gov>

USER COmmENTS

The Census Bureau welcomes the 

comments and advice of users of 

our data and reports. Please send 

comments and suggestions to:

Chief, Population Division 

U.S. Census Bureau 

Washington, DC, 20233-8800