NATIONAL WINDSTORM IMPACT

REDUCTION PROGRAM

Biennial Report to Congress for Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014

PRODUCT OF THE

Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability

OF THE NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL

August 2015
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About the National Science and Technology Council

The National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) is the principal means by which the Executive 

Branch coordinates science and technology policy across the diverse entities that make up the Federal 

research and development enterprise. A primary objective of the NSTC is establishing clear national 

goals for Federal science and technology investments. The NSTC prepares research and development 

strategies that are coordinated across Federal departments and agencies to form investment packages 

aimed at accomplishing multiple national goals. The work of the NSTC is organized under five 

committees: Environment, Natural Resources and Sustainability; Homeland and National Security; 

Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) Education; Science; and Technology. Each of these 

committees oversees subcommittees and working groups focused on different aspects of science and 

technology. More information is available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/nstc.

About the Office of Science and Technology Policy

The Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was established by the National Science and 

Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976. OSTP’s responsibilities include advising the 

President in policy formulation and budget development on questions in which science and technology 

are important elements; articulating the President’s science and technology policy and programs; and 

fostering strong partnerships among Federal, state, and local governments, and the scientific 

communities in industry and academia. The Director of OSTP also serves as Assistant to the President for 

Science and Technology and manages the NSTC. More information is available at 

http://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp. 

About the Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR)

The purpose of the SDR is to provide all relevant Federal agencies a focused forum for information 

sharing; development of collaborative opportunities; formulation of science- and technology-based 

guidance for policy makers; and dialogue with the U.S. policy community to advance informed strategies 

for managing disaster risks. Under its mandate, the SDR advises the White House Office of Science and 

Technology Policy (OSTP) and others about relevant risk reduction resources and the related work of 

SDR Member Agencies. More information is available at http://www.sdr.gov/. 

Federal Copyright Information

This document is a work of the United States Government and is in the public domain (see 17 U.S.C. 

§105). Subject to the stipulations below, it may be distributed and copied with acknowledgment to 

OSTP. Copyrights to graphics included in this document are reserved by the original copyright holders or 

their assignees and are used here under the government’s license and by permission. Requests to use 

any images must be made to the provider identified in the image credits or to OSTP if no provider is 

identified. 
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Report prepared by

NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL

COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT, NATURAL RESOURCES, AND SUSTAINABILITY (CENRS)

SUBCOMMITTEE ON DISASTER REDUCTION (SDR)

National Science and Technology Council

Chair Staff

John P. Holdren Afua Bruce

Assistant to the President for Science and Executive Director

Technology and Director, 

Office of Science and Technology Policy

Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability

Co-Chairs

Tamara Dickinson Kathryn D. Sullivan

Principal Assistant Director for Environment and Acting Undersecretary for Oceans and Atmosphere;

Energy; Assistant Director for Disaster Resilience Administrator of the National Oceanic and

and Space Science Atmospheric Administration

Office of Science and Technology Policy Department of Commerce

Thomas A. Burke Staff

Science Advisor to the Administrator Lisa Matthews

Environmental Protection Agency Executive Secretary

Environmental Protection Agency

Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction

Co-Chairs Staff

David Applegate Barbara Haines-Parmele

Associate Director for Natural Hazards Executive Secretary

United States Geological Survey

Department of the Interior

Margaret Davidson Bret Schothorst

Acting Director of the Office of Ocean and Coastal Executive Secretary

Resource Management

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Department of Commerce

Dennis Wenger

Program Director for Infrastructure Systems 

Management and Extreme Events

National Science Foundation
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Windstorm Working Group

Co-Chairs Staff

Kishor Mehta Bret Schothorst

Program Director in the Division of Civil, Executive Secretary

Mechanical & Manufacturing Innovation

National Science Foundation

Frederick Toepfer

Program Manager of the Hurricane Forecast

Improvement Program, National Weather Service

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Department of Commerce

Members

Harold Bosch Federal Highway Administration, Department of Transportation

Edward Laatsch Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security

Marc Levitan National Institute of Standards and Technology, Department of Commerce
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EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

NATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COUNCIL

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20502

Dear Members of Congress,

I am pleased to transmit to you the report, National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program: 

Biennial Report to Congress for Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014, produced by the National Science 

and Technology Council’s (NSTC) Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction (SDR) and its 

Windstorm Working Group.

Windstorms such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe and fast-moving thunderstorm complexes 

are among the most destructive and economically damaging hazards that affect the United States 

on an annual basis. Each year, windstorms claim lives, cause injuries, and result in billions of 

dollars in property damage. In recent decades, rapid development and population growth in 

areas at high risk of windstorm hazards have increased the Nation’s vulnerability. In 2004, as 

part of a Government-wide effort to counteract that trend, Congress called for the establishment 

a National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program (NWIRP), a coordinated approach to achieve 

major reductions in windstorm-related losses of life and property. In 2006, the SDR Windstorm 

Working Group delivered to Congress an initial Windstorm Impact Reduction Implementation 

Plan, which identified research activities needed to improve windstorm hazard mitigation and 

served as a guide for Federal agencies to coordinate new and existing research to fill knowledge 

gaps in understanding and forecasting windstorms. Subsequently, the NWIRP developed

biennial reports for Fiscal Years 2007-2008, 2009-2010, and 2011-2012 detailing examples of 

relevant Federal activities for reducing windstorm impacts undertaken by the NWIRP member 

agencies during the given reporting periods.

This new report for 2013-2014 continues to fulfill the NSTC’s congressionally mandated 

responsibility to provide biennial reports on the NWIRP. Overall, it finds that the Program has 

successfully facilitated improvements in windstorm forecast models, warning systems, 

evacuation planning, structural-design technology, and community preparedness. These 

improvements have reduced vulnerabilities to windstorms even as the quantity of people, 

buildings, and critical infrastructure in the built environment exposed to windstorms across the 

country has grown dramatically. In coordination with academia and the private sector, the

NWIRP agencies look forward to identifying and prioritizing additional research and 

development needs and achieving even greater successes in reducing windstorm impacts.

Sincerely,

John P. Holdren

Assistant to the President for Science and Technology

Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. BACKGROUND.........................................................................................................................6

2. THE SCOPE OF THE PROBLEM.....................................................................................................6

3. PROGRAM OBJECTIVES AND AGENCY ROLES....................................................................8

4. PROGRESS IN FISCAL YEARS 2013 AND 2014...................................................................9

4.1 Understanding Windstorms for Improved Predictions, Forecasts, and Warnings... 9

4.1.1 Hurricanes................................................................................................................................... 10

4.1.2 Tornadoes, Thunderstorms, and Other Severe Weather......................................... 12

4.2 Assessing and Reducing Windstorm Impacts........................................................................14

4.2.1 Buildings and Structures....................................................................................................... 15

4.2.2 Bridges and Highways............................................................................................................ 20

4.2.3 Power Grid, Aviation, and U.S. Space Centers.............................................................. 23

4.2.4 Community Services and Resilience ................................................................................. 24

4.3 Outreach ...............................................................................................................................................25

5. THE NEED FOR CONTINUED INVESTMENT......................................................................29

APPENDIX A: KEY ABBREVIATIONS..................................................................................31
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1. BACKGROUND

Recognizing that rapid development and population growth in high-risk areas during the preceding 

decades had greatly increased the Nation’s overall vulnerability to windstorm hazards, in 2004 

Congress prescribed the establishment of a coordinated Federal-agency effort– known as the 

National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program (NWIRP) – to accomplish significant reductions 

in windstorm-related losses of life and property. To this end, the NWIRP has focused on 

facilitating improvements in forecast models, warning systems, evacuation planning, structural 

design, and community preparedness to meet this goal. This report for Fiscal Years 2013-2014 

(October 2012-September 2014) continues to fulfill the legislatively mandated responsibility to 

provide biennial reports to Congress on the NWIRP.

Windstorms pose a grave threat to the safety and security of our citizens and our communities. 

Improved forecasting of windstorms is essential, but additional observations, models, and tools 

are also needed to advance the understanding of how the built environment responds to windstorm 

events and to enable the cost-effective design, construction, and retrofit of windstorm-resistant 

buildings and infrastructure. Efficient warning systems and social analysis are also needed to 

improve warning response, mitigate user complacency, better support effective decision making, 

and reduce the losses associated with devastating windstorms. To help meet these and related 

issues, the NWIRP agencies, academia, and the private sector continue to build on past activities, 

including those identified in this report, to identify and prioritize specific measurement-science 

research and development needs for windstorm impact reduction.

2. WINDSTORMS IN FISCAL YEARS 2013 AND 2014

Windstorms such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and severe thunderstorms are among the most 

destructive and economically-damaging hazards that affect the United States on an annual basis. 

Each year, such storms claim lives, cause injuries, and result in billions of dollars in damages to 

property. Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014 brought windstorms of a historic nature. The most impactful 

windstorm of the fiscal period of fiscal years 2013-2014 was Hurricane/Post-Tropical Cyclone 

Sandy, which damaged or destroyed upwards of 700,000 homes in the Northeast after it made 

landfall in the Northeastern United States in late October 2012. Storm surge created some of the 

most crippling, cascading impacts in the New York-New Jersey region, including flooding in New 

York City’s subway tunnels, water covering runways at La Guardia and Kennedy airports, and 

damage to the New Jersey Transit System. Hurricane/Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy was the worst 

disaster for mass public transit systems (e.g., bus, commuter rail, subway) in U.S. history. On 

October 30, 2012, the morning after the storm made landfall, more than half of the Nation’s daily 

transit riders were without service.1

Sandy made landfall along the southern New Jersey shore near Brigantine, New Jersey, on October 

29, 2012, causing historic devastation and substantial loss of life. In the United States, the storm 

was associated with 72 direct deaths in eight states: 48 in New York, 12 in New Jersey, 5 in 

Connecticut, 2 each in Virginia and Pennsylvania, and 1 each in New Hampshire, West Virginia, 

 

1 HUD, Management’s Discussion and Analysis Hurricane Sandy, 

https://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/documents/huddoc?id=afrfy13_sandy.pdf.
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and Maryland. These deaths make Sandy the deadliest hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland since 

Hurricane Katrina in 2005, as well as the deadliest hurricane/post-tropical cyclone to hit the U.S. 

East Coast since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.2

 At the height of the event on October 29-30, 2012, 

approximately 8.5 million people were without power. Based on National Weather Service (NWS) 

forecasts and population statistics as the storm approached, it is estimated that approximately 58.7 

million people were impacted by wind gusts of at least 58 miles per hour and 19.2 million people 

were impacted by wind gusts greater than 74 miles per hour3 – an area so large that tropical-storm 

force winds extended about 1,000 miles in diameter.

In addition to Sandy, a series of powerful and destructive tornadoes of unprecedented size and 

intensity struck in and around the Newcastle, Moore, and El Reno, Oklahoma, areas in May 2013, 

causing many devastating impacts in the central part of the state. Windstorms that struck the 

United States in calendar year 2013 took 92 lives and injured almost 900 people,4 causing an 

estimated $4.5 billion in total direct property losses in the process.5 The deadly Enhanced Fujita 

scale 5 (EF-5) tornado that struck the cities of Newcastle and Moore, Oklahoma, on May 20, 2013, 

had a path length of 17 miles, was 1.3 miles wide, and had peak winds estimated at 210 miles per 

hour.6 The tornado killed 24 people, injured at least 230, and destroyed over 1,050 homes – despite 

the city having a 36-minute warning lead-time as the storm was approaching.7 The EF-3 tornado 

that ravaged rural areas surrounding El Reno, Oklahoma, on May 31, 2013, had a path length of 

16.2 miles and was 2.6 miles wide, which was the largest tornado width ever recorded.8 There 

were seven fatalities associated with this tornado.

Additional windstorms and related severe and fast-moving thunderstorm complexes caused 

extensive damage in other parts of the United States as well during the fiscal period. A massive 

storm system spawned a tornado outbreak between April 27-30, 2014, across several Central and 

Southern U.S. states, impacting thousands of residents in Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Mississippi, 

Oklahoma, and Tennessee. The small towns of Mayflower and Vilonia, Arkansas, in Faulkner 

County were hit particularly hard by an EF-4 tornado on the evening of April 27, 2014,9 which 

resulted in 12 fatalities. According to the NWS, in Faulkner County the tornado destroyed 261 

houses and 121 mobile homes, caused major damage to 77 houses, 29 mobile homes, and 5 

 2 NOAA/NWS Service Assessment, Hurricane/Post-Tropical Cyclone Sandy, October 22-29, 2012, 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Sandy13.pdf. 

3 Ibid.

4 NOAA/NWS fatality and injury data (2013) for tornado, thunderstorm wind, hurricane/tropical storm, and high 

wind hazards, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats/sum13.pdf.

5 NOAA/NWS property loss data (2013) for 

tornado, thunderstorm wind, hurricane/tropical storm, and high wind hazards, 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats/sum13.pdf

5 NOAA/NWS property loss data (2013) for tornado, thunderstorm wind, hurricane/tropical storm, and high wind 

hazards, http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/hazstats/sum13.pdf 6 NWS Weather Forecast Office, Norman, OK, The Tornado Outbreak of May 20, 2013, 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20130520. 

7 NOAA/NWS Service Assessment, May 2013 Oklahoma Tornadoes and Flash Flooding, 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/13oklahoma_tornadoes.pdf. 

8 NWS Weather Forecast Office, Norman, OK, May 31-June 1, 2013 Tornado and Flash Flood Event, 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20130531-elreno. 9 NWS Weather Forecast Office, Little Rock, AR, Tornadoes on April 27, 2014 (Ground Photos), 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lzk/?n=svr0414cpics.htm. 
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apartments, and caused minor damage to 96 houses, 14 mobile homes, and 4 apartments.10 

Overall, during calendar years 2013 and 2014, there were 907 and 888 tornadoes, respectively, 

that occurred in the United States, 28 of which were killer tornadoes responsible for 102 combined 

tornado deaths over the two-year span.11

3. PROGRAM OBJECTIVES AND AGENCY ROLES

The NWIRP was established by Public Law 108-360, Title II, which is known as the National 

Windstorm Impact Reduction Act (NWIRA) of 2004. This legislation called for the Director of 

the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to establish an interagency working group, 

and charged that working group with developing and transmitting to Congress:

1) an implementation plan for achieving the objectives of the program; and

2) a biennial report describing the status of the program and progress achieved. 

Following passage of the NWIRA, OSTP established, within the structure of the National Science 

and Technology Council (NSTC), an interagency Windstorm Working Group of the Committee 

on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction 

(SDR), consisting of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the National 

Science Foundation (NSF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and, at the Director’s discretion, the Federal 

Highway Administration (FHWA) to coordinate activities in furtherance of the program’s 

objectives. Although the NWIRA authorization for appropriations expired in October 2007 and 

has yet to be reauthorized by Congress, these agencies continue to pursue measurable reductions 

in losses of life and property from windstorms per the original legislation.

As an initial step, the working group developed the Windstorm Impact Reduction Implementation 

Plan, which was sent to the Congress on April 5, 2006. The plan identified research activities 

needed to improve windstorm hazard mitigation and served as a guide for the Federal agencies to 

coordinate new and existing research to fill gaps in understanding, predicting, and forecasting 

windstorms. Building on that plan in a subsequent and related effort, and as part of a broader 

undertaking by the NSTC and SDR to identify and prioritize the Federal investments in science 

and technology needed to reduce future disaster losses, the NWIRP agencies contributed expertise 

to the development of a series of 15 implementation plans which, in addition to addressing other 

hazards, articulated necessary steps for reducing windstorm impacts. This series includes plans 

that prescribe specific science and technology actions that inform and support mitigating impacts 

of hurricane and tornado hazards, as well as the coastal inundation and flood hazards which 

hurricanes and other windstorms often produce. Published in 2008, these plans – the Grand 

Challenges for Disaster Reduction Implementation Plans for Hurricane, Tornado, Coastal 

Inundation, and Flood12 – are available online at the SDR website at http://www.sdr.gov/. 

 10 NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Storm Events Database, 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/eventdetails.jsp?id=504760.

11 NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Monthly and Annual U.S. Tornado Summaries, 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html. 

12 http://www.sdr.gov/
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This document is the biennial report for Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014. The report provides examples 

of relevant Federal activities undertaken by the abovementioned agencies during the fiscal period

(from October 2012 through September 2014). The examples herein reflect instances of 

collaboration and cooperation across levels of government, among Federal agencies, and with 

academia and the private sector. The sections of this report are organized in thematic sections 

according to the goals of: improved understanding of windstorms; impact assessment and 

reduction; and outreach. Within these sections, the report summarizes activities undertaken by:

 NIST, in support of research and development to improve codes, standards, and practices 

for design and construction of buildings, structures, and lifelines.

 NSF, in support of research in engineering, the atmospheric sciences, and social sciences 

to improve the understanding of the behavior of windstorms and their impact on buildings, 

structures, lifelines, and society.

 NOAA, in support of atmospheric sciences research to improve the understanding of the 

behavior of windstorms and their impact on buildings, structures, and lifelines.

 FEMA, in support of the development of risk assessment tools and effective mitigation 

techniques, windstorm-related data collection and analysis, public outreach, information 

dissemination, and implementation of mitigation measures consistent with the agency’s 

all-hazards approach.

 FHWA, in support of research to improve the understanding of windstorm impacts on 

bridges and other highway structures to advance corresponding design, engineering, and 

construction standards.

4. PROGRAM ACTIVITIES IN FISCAL YEARS 2013 and 

2014

4.1 UNDERSTANDING WINDSTORMS FOR IMPROVED PREDICTIONS, 

FORECASTS, AND WARNINGS

Federal efforts to understand, predict, and forecast windstorms span a broad array of activities, 

from basic research funded by NSF and other agencies to severe weather warnings provided by 

NOAA. During Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014, NSF and NOAA supported research to advance the 

understanding of the physical processes that determine hurricane intensity, tornadogenesis, 

tornadic vortex structure, and other weather phenomena. NOAA activities included: research to 

improve observations of physical phenomena; development of novel data assimilation and 

forecasting techniques; and applications of observations, models, and forecasts. 

4.1.1 Hurricanes

Through advances in satellite‐based observations, supercomputers, and modeling, tremendous 

strides over recent decades have reduced average hurricane forecast track errors significantly. 

They are now about half of what they were 15 years ago.13 Much of this progress is the result of 

advances in numerical weather prediction: that is, the use of computer models to extrapolate future 

weather based on current conditions and knowledge of atmospheric dynamics. Further advances 

 13 NOAA National Hurricane Center, NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification, 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml. 
10

in hurricane modeling will require the development of models that can accurately depict largescale atmospheric flows, which are primarily responsible for steering hurricanes, while at the same 

time representing the finer-scale details of their inner cores, which influence their intensities. 

Prediction of hurricane formation and intensification remains one of the most challenging aspects 

of atmospheric science, and efforts during the past decade have only yielded slight improvements 

in this area. Moreover, while statistical-dynamical models have provided the most accurate 

guidance for intensity prediction in recent years, experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) 

project that limitations inherent to these joint models will likely restrict their ability to derive 

further skill improvements from them to a range of 10 to 20 percent. Improvement beyond this 

ceiling must come from other applications. Within this context, high-resolution atmospheric 

modeling systems based on dynamical and ensemble approaches offer the best hope for 

significantly improving intensity forecasts.14 Future progress in hurricane forecasting will depend 

upon the success of programs such as NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) 

and others highlighted in the following section.

NOAA: Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program. The HFIP provides the basis for NOAA 

and other agencies to coordinate and align Federal research with that of the larger scientific 

community. The specific goals of the HFIP are to reduce the average errors of hurricane track and 

intensity forecasts by 20 percent within five years and 50 percent in approximately 10 years while 

extending the forecast period out to seven days with accuracy equal to today's five-day forecast. 

NOAA is making significant progress toward meeting these goals. In Fiscal years 2013 and 2014, 

HFIP continued to provide funding to numerous efforts within NOAA, other Federal agencies, and 

universities to support the development, testing, and evaluation of enhanced numerical prediction 

systems, better use of existing observation, evaluation of new potential observations, and support 

for improved forecasting techniques. Successful demonstration of the systems illustrated that the 

five-year track forecast goals should be achieved through the use of recently developed data 

assimilation systems, improved higher resolution models, and existing operational global models 

when run as an ensemble at 30 km resolution. Although there appears to have been significant 

progress in intensity prediction using high-resolution regional models, the past two seasons have 

provided relatively few challenging forecast scenarios. In addition, inner-core Doppler data are 

not consistently leading to forecast improvements, which likely reflect a continuing need to 

advance data assimilation systems and additional thermodynamic measurements in and around the 

hurricane core. However, hurricane model improvements have continued with the expectation that 

the five-year goal will be met in time for the calendar year 2015 hurricane season. Other notable 

successes under the program include the rapid deployment of models from research application to 

operational application and the development and testing of HFIP’s Real-time Experimental 

Forecast System, which uses NOAA Research and Development High Performance Computing 

with real-time support to the NHC during the hurricane season.

NOAA: Joint Hurricane Testbed. During Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Weather 

Research Program within the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Office 

 14 NOAA National Hurricane Center, presentation by Richard J. Pasch, Hurricane Intensity Forecast Improvement: 

Is It Possible?, April 21, 2011, 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/presentations/2011_IntensityForecastingImprovement_Pasch.pdf.
11

of Weather and Air Quality initiated the support of seven new projects conducted at the Joint 

Hurricane Testbed (JHT) in Miami, Florida – a NOAA testbed jointly managed by the NHC and 

the NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). These projects 

involved joint testing of new techniques, applications, and model enhancements to improve the 

analysis and prediction of tropical cyclones. The JHT is designed to transfer more rapidly and 

smoothly new technology, research results, and observational advances by partnering researchers 

from the academic community, Federal agencies, and other groups with hurricane forecasters at 

the NHC throughout the entire project. These new projects represent a wide range of partners from 

academia (University of Miami, Florida International University, University of North Carolina, 

Florida State University, and University of Rhode Island) and U.S. government laboratories 

(NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA's Cooperative Institute for Research 

in the Atmosphere, and NOAA's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies). 

During Fiscal Year 2014, earlier projects that had been recently completed were considered for 

operational implementation at either the NHC or the Environmental Modeling Center. Of these, 

six were accepted for implementation. Of particular note was the Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index, 

which will provide for the first time quantitative probabilistic guidance to assist NHC's Tropical 

Weather Outlook product.

NOAA/NASA: NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment. NOAA's Hurricane Research 

Division is in the midst of a multi-year experiment to improve hurricane-intensity forecasting. 

Developed in partnership with other parts of NOAA, the Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) 

is: collecting observations that span the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle in a variety of 

environments for improvements in the initialization and evaluation of the next-generation 

Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting operational model; developing and refining 

measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC 

intensity, structure, and environment; and improving the understanding of physical processes 

important to intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. Measurable progress is 

occurring in TC intensity forecasts as a result of these efforts, though much work remains. When 

possible, IFEX partners with other Federal agencies to accomplish a more complete sampling of 

TC structure and intensity. For example, during Fiscal Year 2014, IFEX partnered with the 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) on the Hurricane and Severe Storm 

Sentinel (HS3) Project and the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Tropical Cyclone Intensification 

and Structure (TCI-14) Project in a multi-agency collaborative and coordinated study of changes 

in hurricane intensity and structure in the Atlantic basin. In combination, these agencies deployed 

multiple aircraft over a 45-day period during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season to gather 

robust and complementary data sets. One of the noteworthy aspects of this collaboration was the 

use of NASA's remotely piloted Global Hawk scientific research unmanned aircraft system in a 

hurricane research capacity. It is particularly significant that the drone’s 24-hour flight time gave 

scientists the ability to directly observe Hurricane Edouard as it changed over time in a way that 

conventional planes and satellites had not done before. In addition to demonstrating new skill in 

sampling the wind and thermodynamic structure of tropical cyclones, scientists have shed light on 

the processes tied to the rapid intensity and structure changes of Hurricane Edouard. These 

innovative interactions continued during Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014, with IFEX partnering with 

NASA and ONR in the NOAA Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology 

(SHOUT) experiment to utilize a Global Hawk and the NASA WB-57 High Altitude 

Research Program for hurricane observation.
12

NSF: Hurricane Predictions and Predictability. NSF continues to invest in studies related to 

the basic science behind tropical cyclones and hurricanes. These studies range from the smallscale analysis of how sea spray and cloud particles affect the development and intensity of storms 

to the questions of the genesis of cyclones and how large-scale environmental factors affect their 

intensity and movement. Hurricane Sandy is a prime example of the tragic toll that hurricanes can 

take on lives and property. In Fiscal Year 2013, NSF-funded researchers at Pennsylvania State 

University began analysis of the evolution of Hurricane Sandy through its lifecycle and landfall. 

A particular focus of the research is on ensemble modeling, where the same model is run with 

slightly different conditions to determine how robust a solution is.

4.1.2 Tornadoes, Thunderstorms, and Other Severe Weather

Tornadoes and other severe weather such as thunderstorms also continue to claim lives and cause 

damage in the United States on an annual basis. Historic tornado events – such as the widest 

tornado ever recorded, which struck El Reno, Oklahoma, in May 2013 – cause havoc and terrorize 

communities. Investments over the last two decades have led to advances in the understanding of 

tornadogenesis and improvements in windstorm prediction and have enabled NWS to double the 

average lead time for tornado warnings to 13 minutes.15 Yet even with the application of bestavailable science, the rate at which warnings result in false alarms remains high, at 70 percent16. 

To reduce this rate and further increase warning lead times for devastating windstorms such as 

tornadoes, the Federal agencies conducted an array of focused efforts during the fiscal period. 

Examples of agency efforts related to tornadoes, thunderstorms, and other severe weather follow 

below.

NOAA: Warn-on-Forecast. NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) is working 

with the NWS to develop a new vision for the warning decision process, which continues to evolve 

as scientists and engineers work toward integrating the next generation radar (e.g., rapid-scanning 

phased array radar and very rapid-scanning radar with data in less than one minute) and stormscale numerical models to create a storm-scale prediction capability for the NWS. The NSSL 

continues to investigate various model parameterization schemes, along with techniques to 

improve model initialization through three- and four-dimensional data assimilation. In Fiscal 

Years 2013 and 2014, the NSSL continued to receive funding to support the Warn-on-Forecast 

(WoF) project. Within the next decade, the NSSL envisions operational units evaluating a WoF 

methodology, allowing forecasters to use thunderstorm-resolving computer models to guide severe 

weather warnings for tornadoes, winds, hail, and flash floods in the same way they do today with 

the current Doppler radar systems. In conjunction with the WoF project, NSSL is also 

demonstrating the capabilities of the Multifunction Phased Array Radar (MPAR), a program 

funded through NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research with large technical 

contributions from industry and academia. The MPAR project was established to demonstrate the 

potential to simultaneously perform aircraft tracking, wind profiling, and weather surveillance with 

a single, phased array weather radar. NOAA's National Weather Radar Testbed centers on a 

phased array radar actively being tested and evaluated in Norman, Oklahoma. Evidence suggests 

 15 NOAA, Tornadoes 101: Stay alert and stay alive, 

http://www.noaa.gov/features/03_protecting/tornadoes101c.html. 

16 From VORTEX2 website: http://www.vortex2.org/home/.
13

that these enhancements to operational weather capabilities will lead to a more accurate warning 

system, increase lead time, and provide probabilistic information to the public to support risk-wise 

actions during severe weather events. The WoF program is being conducted in collaboration with 

the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division (ESRL/GSD), the NWS 

Storm Prediction Center (SPC), and the NWS Forecast Office in Norman, Oklahoma (OUN).

NOAA/NSF: Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment 2. In Fiscal

Years 2009 and 2010, NSF and NOAA jointly supported the field phase of the Verification of the 

Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment 2 (VORTEX2), which was the largest and most 

ambitious tornado field study conducted to date. This $14 million effort involved nearly 100 

scientists and students from 16 American universities and academic organizations, as well as 

forecasters from the NWS (including the SPC), Environment Canada, the Australian Bureau of 

Meteorology, and the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The VORTEX2 teams sought to better 

understand how, when, and why tornadoes form. Specifically, they investigated: the wind, 

temperature, and humidity conditions that result in the development of tornadoes within 

thunderstorms; the detailed structure of tornadic winds and their relationship to localized damage 

patterns; and the relationships between tornadoes, their parent thunderstorms, and the larger-scale 

environment. Continuing analysis of the VORTEX2 dataset in 2013 and 2014 is advancing the 

understanding of tornado formation, improving prediction, and offering prospects for increased 

warning lead-times. Ongoing analyses are pointing to a complex interplay of previouslyrecognized broad storm-scale rotation and far more subtle processes hinging on the detailed 

makeup and evaporative potential of precipitation particles within the rear-flank regions of 

supercell thunderstorms in triggering (or in some cases, apparently blocking) the spin-up of intense 

near-surface rotation on the tornado scale.

NOAA: Hazardous Weather Testbed. During Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014, NOAA’s NSSL, 

SPC, and OUN continued joint testing of new techniques and applications for enhancing forecasts 

and warnings of hazardous weather – particularly thunderstorms and their attendant damaging 

winds, hail, and tornadoes. This work has been conducted in the NOAA Hazardous Weather 

Testbed (HWT), which is designed to accelerate the transition of promising new meteorological 

insights and technologies into advances in forecasting and warning for hazardous mesoscale 

weather events throughout the United States. The NOAA/NASA Geostationary Operational 

Environmental Satellite – R Series (GOES-R) Proving Ground also conducts experiments within 

the HWT and the University of Oklahoma's Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms to 

provide key contributions each spring during peak severe weather season. Several collaborative 

experiments are conducted in the HWT each year, typically involving multiple external 

collaborators such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research, other universities, various 

NOAA agencies, private industry, and leading research scientists and forecasters from around the 

world.

NOAA: Toward Seasonal Prediction and Long-term Severe Weather Variability in a 

Changing Climate. In Fiscal Year 2012, the NWS SPC partnered with the NWS Climate

Prediction Center, academia, and the NOAA NSSL to improve understanding of the links between 

large-scale climate variability and windstorm and tornado activity. The SPC maintains the longterm observational record of severe weather in the United States and a result of initial interactions, 

NOAA published a “State-of-the-Science Fact Sheet” in Fiscal Year 2013 titled Tornado Activity 
14

and Climate Variability and Change. While climate change can be expected to increase 

temperature and humidity in the lower atmosphere, it may also decrease wind shear. Since both 

factors are required to form tornadoes, NOAA research is focused on the prediction of these local 

factors as well as quantification of the role of more-remote climate signals.

NSF/NOAA: Predictability of Severe Convective Storms. In Fiscal Year 2013, NSF and 

NOAA researchers conducted the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). The goal of the 

experiment was to determine whether additional observations of weather conditions upstream of 

the U.S. Great Plains could improve predictions of severe convective storms, including tornadoes 

and straight-line wind producing events. The NSF/NCAR GV research aircraft deployed hundreds 

of instruments known as dropsondes in order to retrieve profiles of wind, moisture, and 

temperature of the atmosphere below the flight level of the aircraft. Weather balloons were also 

launched from the ground to supplement the aircraft observations. Analysis of the data is ongoing, 

and should allow researchers to determine whether it is observations or numerical models that are 

the limiting factor for prediction of these severe storms.

NSF: Tornado Theory and Observations. NSF continues to fund research in the fiscal period 

making use of the extraordinary efforts of the VORTEX2 field campaign that was originally 

conducted in Fiscal Years 2009 and 2010. In addition, new lines of research regarding the basic 

theory of tornadoes and ways to better observe them are now being conducted. In one case, a 

group of researchers at the University of Oklahoma are studying how tornado debris appears to 

weather radars. The recent upgrade to the Nation’s WSR-88D radar system to retrieve polarimetric 

variables has allowed scientists to better determine the sizes and shapes of objects that the radars 

are detecting. Researchers are now investigating how items commonly lofted by tornadic winds, 

such as branches, pieces of wood, and small plastic and metal objects, are observed by weather 

radar. By better understanding what the radar is observing, weather forecasters and emergency 

managers can more promptly respond to recent tornado damage and provide better warnings to 

those along a tornado’s path.

4.2 ASSESSING AND REDUCING WINDSTORM IMPACTS

Federal efforts to assess and reduce the impacts of windstorms cover a wide range of activities, 

including: studying the performance of buildings, structures, and infrastructure during and after 

windstorms; research, development, and technology transfer of windstorm modeling, simulation, 

risk assessment, and loss estimation techniques; development of cost-effective windstorm-resistant 

materials and systems; and information dissemination and outreach to a wide range of stakeholders 

in the engineering and construction industries, government, and the general public (see Section 4.3 

for additional information on outreach activities).

During Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014, NSF and NOAA supported research in areas of simulation of 

hurricane and tornado wind fields and the understanding of tornado, hurricane, and wind-driven 

rain effects on buildings. NIST activities included development of improved tools for estimating 

wind hazards and estimation of wind loads on structures. NIST and FEMA conducted postwindstorm studies, and the results of such prior and current studies led to changes in building codes 

to improve windstorm resistance. NOAA and FEMA supported the continued development of 

hurricane loss estimation models. FHWA activities included real-time monitoring of weather 
15

conditions and bridge response to winds and physical and computational modeling of wind effects 

on highway structures. NSF also supported research related to resilience to natural hazards.

4.2.1 Buildings and Structures

NIST: Wind Engineering. NIST’s wind engineering research is focused on developing the 

measurement science, tools, and methodologies necessary to substantially improve: 1) wind 

hazard estimation through better extreme wind databases and maps; 2) the estimation of wind loads 

on structures, through the development of database-assisted design techniques incorporating wind 

directionality effects and prediction of structural responses to these loads; and 3) science-based 

methodologies for aerodynamic simulation and measurements, for determination of wind loads on 

buildings and structures. Progress during Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014 included: continued 

development of new design wind speed maps intended for use in the American Society of Civil 

Engineers (ASCE) Standard on Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures 

(ASCE 7); conversion of an existing smooth flow wind tunnel test section to a boundary layer test 

section; and initiation of computational fluid dynamics research to study computationally efficient 

means for simulation of atmospheric turbulence needed for accurate simulations of wind loads on 

buildings,17, 18 to be supported by experiments conducted in the new boundary layer wind tunnel 

test section.

FEMA: Improving Wind-Resistant Provisions. During the fiscal period, FEMA continued to 

work with its partners to develop and incorporate high-wind-resistant provisions and requirements 

in the Nation’s model building codes and standards. Working with other Federal agencies, state 

and local governments, building regulators, building industry groups, and other entities, FEMA 

advocated for specific changes to increase wind-resistant requirements of the following building 

and structural codes: International Building Code (IBC), International Residential Code (IRC), 

International Code Council Storm Shelter Standard (ICC 500) and Residential High Wind 

Standard (ICC 600), and other industry regulations such as ASCE 7. As a result of these efforts, 

buildings are being built stronger, reducing the risks of death, injury, and property loss from highwind storms.

As a result of the 2011 spring tornadoes Mitigation Assessment Team (MAT) research, FEMA 

proposed two code changes, which were approved for publication in the 2015 IBC. The code 

changes call for mandatory storm shelters in high-wind regions for schools and first-responder 

facilities as follows: 

• In areas where the shelter design wind speed for tornadoes is 250 mph, all new 

kindergarten through 12th grade schools with 50 or more occupants in total per school 

shall have an ICC 500-compliant storm shelter. 

• In areas where the shelter design wind speed for tornadoes is 250 mph, all new 911 call 

stations, emergency operation centers, and fire, rescue, ambulance and police stations 

shall have an ICC 500-compliant storm shelter.

 17 NIST Advances in Computer-Aided and Computational Methods in Wind Engineering, by D. Yeo, F. Lombardo, 

D. Banerjee, E. Letvin, F. Potra, E. Simiu, and M. Levitan, Proceedings of the ATC/SEI Advances in Hurricane 

Engineering Conference, October 2012. 18 Practical CFD Simulations of Wind Tunnel Tests, by D. Banerjee, S. Hemley, R. McDermott, D. Yeo, F. 

Lombardo, and M. Levitan. Proceedings of the 12th Americas Conference on Wind Engineering, June 2013.
16

FEMA: Mitigation Assessment Team Evaluations Following Major Hurricanes, Tornadoes 

and Windstorms. In Fiscal Year 2013, FEMA MATs responded to both Hurricane Isaac in 

Louisiana and Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey and New York. FEMA deployed a MAT to 

investigate the damage and provide technical assistance to the affected communities through the 

Joint Field Offices established in response to these events. Examples of some of the products 

conceived as a result of recent studies include two Recovery Advisories (RA) for Hurricane Isaac; 

and seven RAs and 3 fact sheets from the Hurricane Sandy MAT:

• RA 1 – Improving Connections in Elevated Coastal Residential Buildings

• RA 2 – Reducing Flood Effects in Critical Facilities

• RA 3 – Restoring Mechanical, Electrical, and Plumbing Systems In Non-Substantially 

Damaged Residential Buildings

• RA 4 – Reducing Interruptions to Mid- and High-Rise Buildings During Floods

• RA 5 – Designing for Flood Levels Above the Base Flood Elevation (BFE) After Hurricane 

Sandy

• RA 6 – Protecting Building Fuel Systems from Flood Damage

• RA 7 – Reducing Flood Risk and Flood Insurance Premiums for Existing Residential 

Buildings in Zone A

• Fact Sheet 1 – Cleaning Flooded Buildings

• Fact Sheet 2 – Foundation Requirements and recommendations for Elevated Homes

• Fact Sheet 3 – Building Science Support and Code Changes Aiding Sandy Recovery

The Hurricane Isaac MAT was charged with evaluating hurricane damage with focus on 

performance of post-Hurricane Katrina construction and reconstruction efforts. This included 

critical facilities affected by the storm, evaluating the performance of electrical distribution and 

communication facilities, and investigating claims of wind damage in newer buildings. The 

MAT’s observations, conclusions, and recommendations are presented in FEMA P-938, 

Mitigation Assessment Team Report – Hurricane Isaac in Louisiana: Building Performance 

Observations, Recommendations, and Technical Guidance.

19

The Hurricane Sandy MAT investigated the performance of building codes and standards; flood 

protective measures; residential construction; critical facilities and key assets; and mechanical, 

electrical, and plumbing systems. The final MAT report (FEMA P-942: Mitigation Assessment 

Team Report – Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey and New York; Building Performance 

Observations, Recommendations, and Technical Guidance20) was released in Fiscal Year 2014 

and presents the conclusions and recommendations derived from the field observations with 

regards to key engineering concepts, codes and standards, mitigation measures and considerations 

that can be used in the planning and recovery process to help minimize future damage to structures 

and their related utility systems.

 19 Hurricane Isaac in Louisiana: Building Performance Observations, Recommendations, and Technical Guidance, 

Mitigation Assessment Team Report (P-938), Federal Emergency Management Agency, March 2013. Available 

at http://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/20130726-1908-25045-0581/fema_p_938_isaac_mat.pdf. 

20 Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey and New York: Building Performance Observations, Recommendations, and 

Technical Guidance, Mitigation Assessment Team Report (P-942), Federal Emergency Management Agency, 

November 2013. Available at http://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1386850803857-

025eb299df32c6782fdcbb6f69b35b13/Combined_Sandy_MAT_Report_508post.pdf. 
17

In Fiscal Year 2014, FEMA also released a Formal Observation Report, FEMA P-102021, 

presenting the observations, conclusions, and recommendations in response to field investigations 

conducted after the EF-5 tornado that impacted the towns of Newcastle and Moore, Oklahoma, on 

May 20, 2013. The post-storm investigation team focused its efforts on safe rooms and storm 

shelters in the path of the tornado in order to analyze their performance, functionality, and use. 

NIST/NOAA: Preliminary Reconnaissance of the Newcastle-Moore Tornado. At the time of 

the Newcastle-Moore tornado, NIST was nearing completion of its technical investigation of the 

2011 Joplin tornado. The objectives of the Newcastle-Moore Tornado Preliminary 

Reconnaissance, conducted in collaboration with NOAA, were therefore limited to identifying 

information that might be relevant to aspects of the Joplin tornado investigation, including 

collection of data and information on: 1) the performance of the emergency communications 

systems immediately prior to and during the tornado; and 2) the response of critical and educational 

facilities to the tornado, including emergency operations, the physical performance of the buildings 

and designated safe areas, and life safety outcomes. One of the key observations described in the 

preliminary reconnaissance report22 was that designated safe areas at one of the impacted 

elementary schools did not provide life safety protection. Seven schoolchildren died and several 

others were injured when part of the building’s designated safe area, in which they were taking 

shelter, collapsed.

NIST: Technical Investigation of the Joplin Tornado. Following the May 22, 2011, tornado 

that devastated the city of Joplin, Missouri, NIST sent four engineers to the area from May 24-28 

to conduct preliminary reconnaissance. This was the deadliest single tornado since official record 

keeping began in 1950, causing 161 fatalities. Based on analysis of the data collected and other 

criteria required by law and regulation, the Director of NIST established a team (including staff 

from NIST and NOAA) under the National Construction Safety Team (NCST) Act on June 29, 

2011, to proceed with a more comprehensive study of the disaster. The final report of the technical 

investigation,23 completed in Fiscal Year 2014, includes 47 findings that support 16 

recommendations in the following broad areas: improving understanding of tornado hazard 

characteristics and associated wind fields; improving performance of buildings, shelters, 

designated safe areas, and lifelines; and improving performance of emergency communications 

systems and public response. Specifically, the NIST report includes calls for: 1) developing 

national performance-based standards for tornado-resistant design of buildings and infrastructure, 

as well as design methods to achieve those standards; 2) developing improved standards, codes 

and guidelines for siting, design, installation, and operation of tornado shelters, and installation of 

 21 Tornado: Moore, Oklahoma, May 20, 2013: Safe Room Performance, Observations, and Conclusions, Formal 

Observation Report (P-1020), Federal Emergency Management Agency, August 2014. Available at 

http://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1418307179636-a018b8744801f8a770e6ea5c65eb5a4d/FEMA_P1020_Moore_Tornado_Report_508.pdf. 22 Preliminary Reconnaissance of the May 20, 2013, Newcastle-Moore Tornado in Oklahoma. By E. Kuligowski, L. 

Phan, M. Levitan, and D. Jorgensen. National Institute of Standards and Technology Special Publication 1164, 

December, 2013. Available at http://www.nist.gov/manuscript-publication-search.cfm?pub_id=914721. 

23 Final Report - National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Technical Investigation of the May 22, 

2011, Tornado in Joplin Missouri. By E. Kuligowski, F. Lombardo, L. Phan, M. Levitan, and D. Jorgensen. 

NCSTAR 3, March 2014. Available at http://www.nist.gov/manuscript-publication-search.cfm?pub_id=915628.
18

many more shelters in tornado-prone areas; and 3) creating national codes and standards for clear, 

consistent and accurate emergency communications and then ensure that emergency managers, the 

NWS, and the news media in local communities have a joint plan for delivering those messages 

quickly and persuasively during tornadoes.

NIST: Implementation of Recommendations from the Joplin Tornado Investigation. 

Following completion of its technical investigation of the Joplin Tornado, NIST initiated a new 

project to begin implementing the 16 recommendations identified in the final report.24 Progress 

during Fiscal Year 2014 included approval of a proposal submitted to the ASCE to develop a new 

standard on methods of wind speed estimation in tornadoes. The scope of the new standard will 

include updating and improving the EF scale for rating tornadoes, development of standardized 

methods for radar data analysis, forensic engineering, and other wind speed estimation techniques, 

and minimum data archival requirements to support wind speed estimates. The new ASCE 

committee charged with developing this standard is co-chaired by a meteorologist from 

NOAA/NWS and a wind/structural engineer from NIST. A multi-year effort to develop new 

tornado hazard maps, for use in performance-based design of buildings and structures to resist 

tornadoes, was also initiated in Fiscal Year 2014.

FEMA/FHWA/NIST/NSF: U.S.-Japan Panel on Wind and Seismic Effects. FEMA, FHWA, 

NIST, and NSF all participate on the U.S.-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources Panel 

on Wind and Seismic Effects. NIST also chairs and provides a technical secretariat for the panel. 

The panel serves as a mechanism for the exchange of technical data, information, and researchers, 

as well as the coordination of joint research on wind and seismic-related topics of mutual interest 

to the U.S. and Japan. Task Committees addressing wind and storm surge hazards include Task 

Committee “D” (Wind Engineering), Task Committee “G” (Transportation), and Task Committee 

“H” (Storm Surge and Tsunami). The Task Committee “D” group has held five international 

workshops and the Task Committee “G” group has held 30 such workshops. During Fiscal Year 

2013, the U.S. side hosted a panel meeting at NIST in Gaithersburg, Maryland. The U.S. side also 

hosted a bridge engineering workshop in Portland, Oregon, and attended a bridge engineering 

workshop in Tsukuba Science City, Japan, during Fiscal Year 2013.25

NIST/NSF: R&D Roadmap for Windstorm and Coastal Inundation Impact Reduction. 

NIST completed and published an R&D roadmap for windstorm and coastal inundation impact 

reduction26 during the current reporting period. The roadmap includes a vision for windstorm and 

coastal inundation resilient communities, identifies grand challenges, and provides descriptions of 

30 priority R&D topics in areas of hazard characterization, loads and effects, resistance to loads, 

and performance-based design for wind, storm surge, and tsunami hazards. Input for the roadmap 

was acquired through a pair of workshops (held in Reston, Virginia, in Fiscal Year 2012, and 

Miami, Florida, in Fiscal Year 2013), the first of which was jointly sponsored by NSF. Over 100 

industry leading practitioners, academics, and representatives from key government agencies 

 24 Ibid.

25 Proceedings of the 29th U.S. – Japan Bridge Engineering Workshop, Public Works Research Institute, Tsukuba 

Science City, Japan, November, 2013. Available at http://www.pwri.go.jp/eng/ujnr/ujnr.htm. 

26 Measurement Science R&D Roadmap for Windstorm and Coastal Inundation Impact Reduction (NIST GCR 14-

973-13), National Institute of Standards and Technology, 2014. Available at http://www.nist.gov/manuscriptpublication-search.cfm?pub_id=915541.
19

participated in the two workshops. Federal government participants included representatives from 

the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Geological Survey, in 

addition to FEMA, FHWA, NIST, NOAA, NSF, and OSTP.

NSF: RAPID Awards: Collection of Perishable Data. NSF has a standing program to provide 

funding to university faculty members to collect perishable data from the field after a significant 

windstorm event. During Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014, the institutions that were granted funds for 

collecting data after Hurricane Sandy completed their work. The data include level and impact of 

storm surge on residential structures and bridges in the New Jersey and New York coastal areas, 

power outages in New York City and surrounding areas, and impact of wind in inland areas. The 

institutions that participated in the research included: New York University, CUNY City College, 

Princeton University, Drexel University, Stevens Institute of Technology, Louisiana State 

University, University of Washington, and the University of Notre Dame. The collected data are 

housed on the web sites of the institutions and are available to principal investigators and the 

public. A similar effort of collecting data after Typhoon Haiyan that devastated islands of the 

Philippines was pursued by the University of North Carolina-Charlotte. In addition, faculty and 

students from University of Oklahoma, Mississippi State University, and University of Alabama 

documented perishable data and modes of collapse of buildings following the tornadoes that

impacted the Newcastle, Moore, and El Reno, Oklahoma, areas in May 2013. This collection of 

field data after the tornado has led to significant changes in the building codes of the city of Moore, 

Oklahoma. Faculty and students from Lyndon State College were able to perform detailed ground 

and aerial surveys of the damage track caused by the Newcastle-Moore and El Reno tornadoes.

NSF: Planning Grant for Industry/University Cooperative Research Center (I/UCRC) for 

Windstorm Hazard Mitigation. NSF has provided a collaborative grant to Texas Tech 

University, Louisiana State University, and the University of Alabama to formulate a partnership 

center for research and development on windstorm hazard mitigation between the academic 

institutions and industry. The grant is for planning purposes and allows the group to meet and 

delineate the type of research that the industry would like the researchers to pursue. The goal is to 

produce synergy between academic researchers and industry personnel to use basic research and 

facilities to develop meaningful results that the industry can use. The plan of the center is to 

continue beyond funding from the NSF.

NSF: Awards for Response of Tall Buildings in High Winds. As buildings are planned and 

designed to be greater and greater in height, NSF is funding awards to assess the response of these 

tall structures in high winds and to create improved aerodynamic shapes to reduce drifts. Very tall 

buildings in the range of 100 stories or more can sway in high winds, and this swaying can be felt 

by people – making them uncomfortable. The optimum aerodynamic shape of a building can 

reduce swaying and the drift of the building; in addition, aerodynamic shapes can reduce windinduced loadings and make very tall buildings more resilient to winds and potentially more 

economical. Awards were given in the fiscal period to Northeastern University and the University 

of Notre Dame to study emerging problems related to tall buildings.

NSF: Hurricane Wind and Surge Effects on Buildings and Bridges. NSF has provided grants 

to the University of Notre Dame and the City University of New York – City College to pursue 

fundamental research in understanding the impact of hurricanes on shoreline buildings and bridges. 
20

These impacts are due to high winds as well as storm surge. In the research projects, loads are 

modeled in computer simulation to understand their impact on the coastal buildings and bridges. 

Responses of buildings to storm surge and waves are modeled using a structural mechanics 

approach, and responses will be compared with the damage data collected after Hurricane Sandy. 

The computer simulation model will be refined to duplicate the field data to the extent possible, 

and in addition, the computer simulation of storm surge will predict scour that the surge can cause 

around bridge piers. Another grant provided by NSF is developing rapid deployment of selfcontained instrumentation that can measure loads on bridges during a hurricane. The Florida 

Department of Transportation is working closely with University of Florida faculty and students 

to facilitate rapid deployment of the instruments. This early-career grant will establish storm surge 

and wave impact on bridge structures in hurricanes using wireless smart sensors assisted by 

advanced cyberinfrastructure. The results of these studies have potential of improving coastal 

buildings and bridges to resist hurricane forces in the future.

4.2.2 Bridges and Highways

FHWA: Monitoring of Wind Conditions and Structural Performance. During the fiscal 

period, the FHWA Office of Infrastructure Research and Development monitored winds and 

structural performance at selected bridge sites to establish and characterize site-specific wind 

conditions and the responses of the bridges to varying wind conditions. The sites of two major 

long-span, cable-supported bridges were monitored during the reporting period – the Deer IsleSedgwick Bridge (Maine) and the Hale Boggs Bridge (Louisiana). Data were collected on a 

continuous basis; however, few major storm events were observed. The data gathered during this 

monitoring period are being used for: the calibration of numerical tools and predictive methods; 

the improvement of physical modeling techniques in the laboratory; the evaluation and validation 

of new designs; and the development and assessment of mitigation measures.

FHWA: Full Scale Measurement of Structural Dynamic Properties. In an ongoing program 

to characterize the dynamic properties of bridge stay cables – which are critical to structural 

performance and aerodynamic stability – the analysis of data from full-scale, forced vibration tests 

on selected major structures continued during Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014. Tests had been 

previously performed on the Zakim (Massachusetts), Emerson (Missouri), and Penobscot Narrows 

(Maine) bridges. During this reporting period, a technical report27 on the Penobscot study and a 

technical paper28 on the Emerson study were published. The report documents the behavior of 

large, ungrouted bridge cables and illustrates the effectiveness of viscous dampers as a mitigation 

measure. The paper summarizes the behavior of grouted and ungrouted cables as well as the 

effectiveness of cross ties as a mitigation measure. Information collected during the tests has 

enabled further evaluation of design details and assessment of the effectiveness of various 

mitigation measures such as dampers, cross ties, and aerodynamic surface treatments. The 

information also serves as a benchmark that will be useful during later inspections to assess the 

bridge’s structural condition and overall health.

 27 Dynamic Properties of Stay Cables on the Penobscot Narrows Bridge, by H.R. Bosch and J.R. Pagenkopf, Report 

No. FHWA-HRT-14-067, Federal Highway Administration, McLean, VA, September 2014. Available at 

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/research/infrastructure/structures/bridge/14067/index.cfm. 28 Dynamic Properties of Stay Cables on the Bill Emerson Bridge, by H.R. Bosch and J.R. Pagenkopf, Proceedings 

of the 12th Americas Conference on Wind Engineering, Seattle, Washington, June 2013.
21

FHWA: Physical Modeling of Wind Effects on Highway Structures. In collaboration with the 

National Research Council of Canada (NRCC) and in cooperation with the University of Stavenger 

in Norway, the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom, and the design consultancy firm 

RWDI in Canada, wind tunnel tests were performed (during the previous reporting period) at 

NRCC on a full-scale section model of a bridge stay cable. Tests were performed in simulated 

wind conditions over a broad range of wind speeds to evaluate the influence of wind speed, 

turbulence intensity, wind and cable orientation, cable roundness, and aerodynamic surface 

treatment on overall performance and aerodynamic stability. During Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014, 

a comprehensive technical report29 and four technical papers30, 31, 32, 33 were published. As noted 

in the report, the imperfect shape of High Density Polyethylene Pipe (HDPE) used on bridge stay 

cables can play an important role in the aerodynamic stability and performance of cables. 

Additional tests have been planned in the next reporting period to further investigate this area of 

wind and cable interaction. The design of these tests requires information regarding the roundness 

of typical HDPE used in bridge construction. To obtain this information, detailed field 

measurements must be undertaken at select bridge sites and an automated robotic device has been 

designed and fabricated for this purpose. Large Variable Message Signs can and have exhibited 

sensitivity to the effects of wind and truck gust loadings resulting in performance problems and 

structural failures. To investigate this, wind tunnel testing in the FHWA Aerodynamics Laboratory 

and computational modeling in the Argonne National Laboratory are ongoing. During this 

reporting period, wind force measurements on a 1:10 scale model of a representative message sign 

panel were completed for a wide range of vertical wind angles. Traffic signal standards and high 

light towers have also exhibited sensitivity to the effects of wind and structural failures have been 

observed. Research on this subject has been conducted under the National Cooperative Highway 

Research Program (NCHRP), and American Association of State Highway and Transportation 

Officials (AASHTO) standard specifications for these structures have been significantly updated. 

To evaluate and further build upon these improvements in design, wind tunnel testing in the FHWA 

Aerodynamics Laboratory is ongoing. During this reporting period, wind force measurements on 

multi-sided, tapered cylinders have resumed and tests were completed on 18 sectional models with 

representative geometries. 

 29 Wind Tunnel Investigations of an Inclined Stay Cable with a Helical Fillet, by G.L. Larose and A. D’Auteuil, 

Report No. FHWA-HRT-14-070, Federal Highway Administration, McLean, VA, September 2014. Available at 

http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/research/infrastructure/structures/bridge/14070/index.cfm. 

30 Wind-Induced Vibrations of Dry Inclined Stay Cables in the Critical Reynolds Number Range, by J.B. Jakobsen, 

G.L. Larose, A. D’Auteuil, J.H.G. Macdonald, and H.R. Bosch, Proceedings of the 6th Symposium on Strait 

Crossings, Bergen, Norway, June 2013. 31 Wind-Tunnel Investigations of an Inclined Stay Cable with a Helical Fillet, by G.L. Larose, A. D’Auteuil, H.R. 

Bosch, J.B. Jakobsen, and J.H.G. Macdonald, Proceedings of the 6th European-African Conference on Wind 

Engineering, Cambridge, UK, July 2013. 32 Sectional Load Characteristics of a Dry Inclined Helical Filleted Cable, by H. Christiansen, J.B. Jakobsen, J.H.G. 

Macdonald, G.L. Larose, and H.R. Bosch, Proceedings of the 13th Conference of the Italian Association for Wind 

Engineering, Genova, Italy, June 2014. 33 Comparison of the Aerodynamics of a Bridge Cable with Helical Fillets in Smooth and Turbulent Flow, by H. 

Christiansen, J.B. Jakobsen, G.L. Larose, J.H.G. Macdonald, A. D’Auteuil, and H.R. Bosch, Proceedings of the 

Symposium on the Dynamics and Aerodynamics of Cables, Copenhagen, Denmark, September 2014.
22

FHWA: Numerical Modeling of Wind Effects on Highway Structures. During the reporting 

period, an existing interagency agreement has continued between the U.S. Department of 

Transportation and the U.S. Department of Energy for modeling the effects of natural hazards, 

such as windstorms, hydraulics, and flooding, on infrastructure. In addition, a second agreement 

was initiated to continue this collaboration and broaden the scope of research. These agreements 

have enabled FHWA to utilize high-performance computing and support staff from the Argonne 

National Laboratory (ANL). Resources located at the Transportation Research and Analysis 

Computing Center (TRACC) are being used to model wind effects on highway users as well as 

highway structures. To evaluate performance of our facility and to enhance simulation capability, 

a detailed Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the FHWA Aerodynamics Laboratory 

at the Turner Fairbank Highway Research Center (TFHRC) – including the large wind tunnel –

was completed and a technical report34 has been published. Research has continued in this area to 

further refine and streamline the model with the objective of developing an effective computational 

framework, or “virtual wind tunnel,” that will complement physical testing facilities. Special 

techniques have been developed by ANL staff to couple CFD software with Computational 

Structural Mechanics (CSM) software to enable study of wind and structure interaction problems. 

These emerging tools have been used to develop and refine models to study the interaction of wind 

with inclined bridge stay cables as well as wind (or truck-induced gust) interaction with large 

message sign and signal structures. FHWA and ANL staff have also refined skills with using 

“moving mesh” capabilities of CFD software so that objects, such as trucks, can be moved through 

still air or wind fields to study fluid and structure interaction. This complex meshing has been 

used to develop a computational model for studying the wind “shielding” effects of large bridge 

towers on trucks crossing elevated bridge structures. These CFD tools, as well as multi-physics 

modeling capabilities, were used to study the impact of salt spray from trucks, moving either 

through still air or a wind field, on weathering steel girders of highway overpasses. The first phase 

of this work established a modelling philosophy, which was found to include many assumptions 

regarding the initial size and velocity of spray droplets coming from tires. These results have been 

documented in an interim report,35 and to validate the aforementioned assumptions, field 

measurements were conducted and completed. During the previous fiscal period of 2011 and 

2012, finite element modeling was performed using the commercial program SAP2000 to study 

the efficacy of various approaches for mitigating wind-induced vibration of bridge stay cables. In 

the current reporting period, this study has been completed and a comprehensive laboratory 

report36 has been published.

FHWA: Development of Design Guidelines and Specifications. Research continued in Fiscal 

Years 2013 and 2014 on the issue of wind- and rain-induced vibration of bridge stay cables. The 

 34 Wind Tunnel Model of the Turner-Fairbank Highway Research Center Aerodynamics Laboratory, by S.A. Lottes 

and C. Bojanowski, Report No. ANL/ESD/13-3, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, June 2013. Available 

at http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1111295. 35 Computer Modeling and Analysis of Truck Generated Salt-Spray Transport Near Bridges, by S.A. Lottes and C. 

Bojanowski, Report No. ANL/ESD/13-1, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, July 2013. Available at 

http://www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/1087817. 36 Mitigation of Wind-Induced Vibration of Stay Cables: Numerical Simulations and Evaluations, by S. Park and 

H.R. Bosch, Report No. FHWA-HRT-14-049, Federal Highway Administration, McLean, VA, August 2014. 

Available at http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/research/infrastructure/structures/bridge/14049/index.cfm.
23

FHWA draft guidelines document on the aerodynamic design of bridge stay cables was further 

updated, which will provide guidance on the aerodynamic design of cables and cable networks on 

major new highway bridges and for the retrofit of existing structures to mitigate wind-induced 

vibration problems. Results of research on bridge cables have been made available to the PostTensioning Institute’s DC-45 Cable-Stayed Bridge Committee for consideration during periodic 

updates of their guide specification on cables. During this reporting period, FHWA also worked 

closely with the Transportation Research Board on the project NCHRP 20-07/Task 325 for 

updating AASHTO LRFD wind load provisions. The final study report and recommendations 

were submitted to the AASHTO SCOBS, Technical Committee on Load Distribution (T-5), for 

consideration in making changes to the code provisions on wind load.

4.2.3 Power Grid, Aviation, and U.S. Space Centers

NOAA: High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) and the Rapid Refresh Model 

(RAP). There is a longstanding need for a higher-resolution weather models to increase accuracy 

of local forecasts for emergency managers, air traffic managers, renewable energy producers, 

wildfire managers, and others. To fulfil this need, scientists at the NOAA ESRL/GSD developed 

a radar-initialized, storm-resolving, high-resolution, hourly-updating assimilation and modeling 

system known as the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model to advance the prediction of 

weather changes in the environment. The HRRR provides hourly weather updates at 3 km 

resolution (i.e., a 3.5 square-mile area), which increases the protection of lives and property, helps 

to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of wind and solar energy of the U.S. energy sector, and 

provides air traffic managers with rapidly updated projections of developing severe weather. 

During Fiscal Year 2014, NOAA ESRL/GSD and NOAA National Centers for Environmental 

Prediction scientists worked together to transition the HRRR model into NWS operations, 

providing forecast products to users beginning on September 30, 2014. Version 2 of the HRRR is 

scheduled for release in late Fiscal Year 2015. The Rapid Refresh Model (RAP) is a coarser 

version of the HRRR assimilation and modeling system, providing forecasts for the North 

American domain and updated hourly. The RAP provides the boundary conditions used to execute 

the HRRR model. The initial version of the RAP was delivered to NWS operations in Fiscal Year 

2014. A new version of the RAP, planned for delivery to NWS operations at the end of Fiscal 

Year 2015, will include a larger domain and forecast out to nearly 30 hours.

NOAA: Hazardous Weather System for U.S. Space Centers. Operations at U.S space centers 

are heavily dependent on severe weather conditions and windstorm forecasts. Safety regulations 

restrict work on tall gantries, shuttle transport, refueling, and other operations during high wind 

events. Winds may also impact safety following rocket blasts, fuel spills, and other accidents by 

carrying toxins from an accident zone farther afield. The NOAA ESRL/GSD developed and 

implemented a state-of-the-art analysis and forecasting system as part of the Range 

Standardization and Automation program. A new version of the model was delivered to the Range 

in Fiscal Year 2014. The latest upgrade of the system – a triple-nested, three-dimensional analysis 

with a medium-range forecast – is currently undergoing on-site testing at Vandenberg Air Force 

Base in California.

NOAA/NSF: Reliability-Based Hurricane Risk Assessment for Offshore Wind Farms. 

Meeting the national goal of generating 20 percent of total energy needs from renewable source 

by 2030 will require placing wind farms offshore. These wind farms located on the Gulf and East 
24

Coasts are vulnerable to hurricanes, and in order to make offshore wind farms viable economically, 

it is necessary to have knowledge of how hurricane hazards can impact the fragility of wind 

turbines. NOAA AOML and Florida State University scientists are working with the Department 

of Energy (DOE) on evaluating the impact of hurricane winds on the turbine design and 

performance. DOE is providing support to collect and analyze vertical wind profiles from 

dropsondes within tropical cyclones affecting wind farm lease locations.

4.2.4 Community Services and Resilience 

NOAA: State of Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model. NOAA continued to work with the 

state of Florida during the fiscal period on the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model (FPHLM). 

The FPHLM is an open, transparent computer model that is used by the Florida Office of Insurance 

Regulation to provide a baseline for evaluating rate change requests for windstorm insurance. The 

FPHLM is the first such model that enables all of the results and details from the modeling 

approach to be open to scrutiny. The model’s engineering component estimates damage to 

residential structures within Florida zip codes and an actuarial component then estimates the 

insured loss. The average annual loss is then estimated statewide for every zip code in Florida. 

The FPHLM was originally approved by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection 

Methodology in August 2010 and successfully passed the state certification process initiated in 

late 2012. NOAA researchers at AOML and the Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric 

Studies partnered with the Florida International University researchers in the fiscal period to 

update and maintain the wind model within the FPHLM.

FEMA: Maintain Hazus-MH Hurricane Loss Estimation Model. FEMA developed and 

maintained the Hazards – U.S., Multi-Hazard model (Hazus-MH), a nationally applicable 

standardized methodology that contains models for estimating potential losses from multiple 

hazards, including hurricane winds. Hazus-MH uses geographic information system (GIS) 

technology to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of disasters and graphically 

illustrates the limits of identified high-risk locations due to a region’s hazards. Users can then 

visualize the spatial relationships between populations and other more permanently fixed 

geographic assets or resources for the specific hazard being modeled, a crucial function in the predisaster planning process. During the reporting period for Fiscal Years 2013 and 2014, the Hazus 

program was undergoing transition activities within the FEMA Risk MAP Program with little 

major activity concerning Hazus functionality. Hurricane-related activity during this time period 

included the release of Hazus 2.1 Patch 2 in February 2014, which updated Hazus compatibility 

with the HURREVAC model. The patch allows Hazus users to resume real-time downloads of 

HURREVAC products for integration with the Hazus hurricane model and better estimate 

potential structural damage and economic losses for a hurricane approaching the U.S.

NSF: Improving Economic Resilience on the U.S. Gulf Coast Communities to Coastal 

Hazards. This project funded through NSF in the fiscal period studies why communities with 

similar socio-economic compositions and facing identical disasters have different vulnerabilities 

and recovery rates. The goal is to explore the relationship of economic vulnerability, resilience, 

and recovery in three coastal counties in Mississippi. The research will identify variables that 

contribute to the recovery of these communities after disasters. It will directly benefit Gulf Coast 

communities in their efforts to increase resilience to tropical cyclones. Among the many benefits 

of the project are: increasing local participation in decision making regarding tropical cycles; 
25

aiding local policymakers in the design and deployment of effective mitigation and economic 

development policies; and constructing a web-based Spatial Decision Support System.

NSF: Quantifying Disaster Resilience of Critical Infrastructure-based Societal Systems with 

Emergent Behavior and Dynamic Interdependencies. This NSF-funded project during the 

reporting period is creating a way to measure the resilience of critical infrastructure-based societal 

systems (CISSs) that are necessary for community functioning. A CISS is comprised of 

interdependent buildings that together serve a community function and are dependent on networks 

of critical lifelines. Examples include such infrastructure dependent systems as school districts, 

university campuses, central business districts, and health care systems, which is the focus of this 

research. The analysis requires dynamic fault-tree and modeling of complex, adaptive systems 

with time-varying states and changes. Results of this research can be used to improve, build, and 

maintain communities that are more likely to withstand disruption or disaster. The research will 

also inform practicing health care managers and emergency planners.

4.3 OUTREACH

Reducing susceptibility to and destruction from severe windstorms requires action beyond the 

purview of the Federal government. Zoning laws, building codes, and jurisdictional resources 

central to promoting pre-disaster mitigation and fostering disaster-resilient communities are 

controlled by state and local authorities. Ultimately, state, county, and municipal officials must 

implement the sound land use practices, informed urban planning techniques, prudent development 

and reconstruction decisions, and effective disaster response and recovery strategies that underpin 

resilient communities. Windstorm disaster risk reduction is equally critical at the individual and 

family levels and must be facilitated throughout community social networks.

History shows that a lack of situational awareness and preparation amongst citizens are common 

threads among many major wind-related disasters. By knowing one’s vulnerabilities and what 

actions should be taken to lessen them, the public can reduce the effects of windstorms. Disaster 

preparedness significantly improves one’s ability to respond to the consequences of a windstorm 

hazard event – this means having emergency plans in place concerning what to do and where to 

go if a windstorm warning is issued or a hazard is observed. This type of community resilience, 

especially in vulnerable social populations, can be enhanced through a variety of means, including 

outreach and awareness programs and partnerships among Federal and state agencies and the other 

members of the local community. Numerous informational and educational materials are 

distributed each year to promote the protection of individuals and property from high-wind events, 

including hurricanes, tornadoes, and straight-line winds from thunderstorms. Selected examples 

of such activities are highlighted below.

NOAA: Weather-Ready Nation. In the fiscal period of this report, the Weather-Ready Nation 

(WRN) initiative continued to make progress. The purpose of WRN is, first and foremost, to save 

more lives and livelihoods. By increasing the Nation’s weather-readiness, the country will be 

prepared to protect, mitigate, respond to, and recover from weather-related disasters such as severe 

windstorms. Society’s ability to prepare for natural disasters requires a societal response equal to 

the risk, which is why the NWS is leveraging its vast nationwide network of partners and 

incorporating new ones who are beginning to share the vision of building a weather-ready nation. 

Partners in this program include: other Federal agencies, emergency managers, researchers, the 
26

media, the insurance industry, non-profits, and the private sector. Building a weather-ready nation 

starts with these internal actions but requires the action of a vast nationwide network of partners, 

including: other U.S. government agencies and emergency managers, researchers, the media, 

insurance industry, non-profits, the private sector, the weather enterprise, and more. Through a 

series of symposiums, the national dialog engages these partners in assessing why the Nation is 

experiencing such extreme impacts. Other service enhancements provided by WRN include: 

cataloging local impacts from weather to give the public and local governments more information 

about what actions they need to take; providing better explanations about differences between the 

forecast and the range of possibilities to help decision-makers plan for any possible scenario; 

mapping flood threats to allow emergency managers keep the public out of areas that are expected 

to flood; improving the distribution of weather information by keeping up with new 

communication technologies and social media; and working to achieve local weather-readiness 

where everyone gets a clear, understandable message when weather hazards such as severe 

windstorms are imminent and knows what to do to protect themselves.

FEMA: Education, Outreach, and Information Dissemination. The FEMA website,

http://www.fema.gov serves as the Nation's portal to emergency and disaster information. FEMA 

publications related to wind and coastal surge hazards are available for free on the web on FEMA’s 

media library, the Google Books website, and MADCAD. Dozens of presentations were given at 

conferences and other forums highlighting the importance of both hurricane mitigation and safe 

rooms. FEMA has partnered with communities and community organizations to teach design 

professionals and local officials the concepts of hurricane mitigation and safe room design. FEMA 

has maintained its partnership with external organizations such as the Disney Corporation and the 

Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH), which have been operating an interactive exhibit titled 

“Storm Struck: The Tale of Two Homes” at Epcot at the Walt Disney World Resort Innoventions 

Pavilion for the last several years with over 700,000 annual visitors. The FLASH attraction allows 

visitors to experience a severe weather incident, such as a hurricane, with the goal of teaching the 

guests about cutting-edge technology used to protect homes. FEMA sponsored and provided 

technical direction for the National Building Museum’s “Designing for Disaster” Exhibit, which 

opened May 11, 2014. Visitors to the exhibit explore new approaches in design and engineering 

to protect life and property against a range of natural hazards, including hurricanes and tornadoes. 

The exhibit includes a partially deconstructed safe room following the design plans in FEMA P320. FEMA also sponsored curriculum kits that teach students in grades 7-9 about planning and 

designing in preparation for natural disasters. 

FEMA: Development of Technical Guidance Materials on State-of-the-Art Wind-Resistant 

Design and Construction Methods. Each year, many thousands of publications dealing with

wind hazards are ordered and distributed by FEMA. For example, FEMA’s safe room guidance 

publications are among the most widely downloaded and distributed documents by FEMA’s 

library and publications warehouse (FEMA P-320: Taking Shelter From the Storm: Building a 

Safe Room For Your Home or Small Business and FEMA P-361: Design and Construction 

Guidance for Community Safe Rooms). During the fiscal period, almost 12,000 copies of FEMA 

P-320 and over 3,400 copies of FEMA P-361 were distributed to organizations across the U.S. 

Other recent examples include:

• As part of the MAT Program, published the following reports and recovery advisories:
27

o FEMA P-938, Mitigation Assessment Team Report – Hurricane Isaac in Louisiana: 

Building Performance Observations, Recommendations, and Technical Guidance

(March 2013)

o Hurricane Isaac RA 1 – Minimizing Wind and Water Intrusion by Covering the 

Underside of Elevated Buildings

o Hurricane Isaac RA 2 – Minimizing Flood Damage to Electrical Service 

Components

o FEMA P-942: Mitigation Assessment Team Report – Hurricane Sandy in New 

Jersey and New York; Building Performance Observations, Recommendations, and 

Technical Guidance (November 2014)

o Hurricane Sandy RA 1 – Improving Connections in Elevated Coastal Residential 

Buildings

o Hurricane Sandy RA 2 – Reducing Flood Effects in Critical Facilities

o Hurricane Sandy RA 3 – Restoring Mechanical, Electrical, and Plumbing Systems 

In Non-Substantially Damaged Residential Buildings

o Hurricane Sandy RA 4 – Reducing Interruptions to Mid- and High-Rise Buildings 

During Floods

o Hurricane Sandy RA 5 – Designing for Flood Levels Above the BFE After 

Hurricane Sandy 

o Hurricane Sandy RA 6 – Protecting Building Fuel Systems from Flood Damage

o Hurricane Sandy RA 7 – Reducing Flood Risk and Flood Insurance Premiums for 

Existing Residential Buildings in Zone A

o Hurricane Sandy Fact Sheet 1 – Cleaning Flooded Buildings

o Hurricane Sandy Fact Sheet 2 – Foundation Requirements and recommendations 

for Elevated Homes

o Hurricane Sandy Fact Sheet 3 – Building Science Support and Code Changes 

Aiding Sandy Recovery

• Developed in-person and online distance learning courses for FEMA’s Emergency 

Management Institute, including an update to the four-day in-person course titled EMI E312, Fundamentals of Building Science, which reviews information pertaining to impacts 

of wind, flood, earthquake, and wildland-urban interface fire on the constructed 

environment, and explains key performance and construction issues related to floods, wind, 

wildfires, and earthquakes.

• Updated FEMA P-784, Substantial Damage Estimator (SDE) Version 2.1, after piloting 

Version 2.0 in Louisiana following Hurricane Isaac. SDE is a tool developed to assist state 

and local officials in determining substantial damage for residential and non-residential 

structures in accordance with a local floodplain management ordinance meeting the 

requirements of the National Flood Insurance Program. The tool can be used to assess 

flood, wind, wildfire, seismic, and other forms of damage.

• Developed a new fact sheet titled “Residential Tornado Safe Room Doors” (September 

2014) that provides technical information on the selection and installation of safe room 

doors. 

• Developed a new publication, FEMA P-1019, Emergency Power Systems for Critical 

Facilities: A Best Practices Approach to Improving Reliability (September 2014). This 

publication discusses the effects of natural hazards on electrical transmission and 

distribution infrastructure and on building systems. It discusses how to determine what 
28

facilities are critical, what equipment within a critical facility is needed to allow the facility 

to function and provide services, and how to provide emergency power to a critical facility.

• During the fiscal reporting period, FEMA has been updating FEMA P-320 and FEMA P361, due out in December 2014 and March 2015, respectively, in the next fiscal period.

FHWA: Training and Technology Transfer. Technology transfer of high performance 

computational analysis techniques is an important part of ANL’s work to support and advance 

wind-related engineering and research programs at TFHRC. The technology transfer is 

accomplished by publishing techniques developed and the work done in reports and papers, 

presentations at conferences, and training courses in CFD capabilities and techniques offered by 

TRACC. A fourth two-day, hands-on training course was developed and provided to students, 

professionals, and U.S. Government representatives in March 2013 at ANL. The course consisted 

of lectures, practical examples, and detailed hands-on tutorials to demonstrate cutting edge 

capabilities and techniques using CFD. In addition, a fifth course with updated and expanded 

materials was developed and presented in March 2014.

FHWA: Aerodynamics Webinar Series. In November 2013, the FHWA launched a new 

webinar series on the aerodynamics of highway structures. The objectives of this new series are 

to introduce our stakeholders to the aerodynamics of highway structures, provide a review of 

highway aerodynamic issues, highlight updates and advancements of highway wind design 

specifications and guidelines, demonstrate advancements in aerodynamic analysis of highway 

structures, and provide an introduction to available mitigation methods. During Fiscal Years 2013 

and 2014, a total of five one-hour-long sessions were developed and delivered by experts in the 

field, including FHWA staff, and at least four more sessions have been planned. The titles of the 

completed sessions are as follows: FHWA Aerodynamics Program—from galloping to cruising; 

Introduction to wind hazards in highway engineering; Wind loads and aerodynamic design of 

bridges; Wind induced vibration of bridge cables; and Experimental methods for wind design. 

5. CONCLUSION

The destructive impacts of recent extreme windstorms – such as the historic Hurricane/PostTropical Cyclone Sandy in October 2012 and the violent tornadoes impacting Newcastle, Moore, 

and El Reno, Oklahoma, in May 2013 and Mayflower and Vilonia, Arkansas, in April 2014 –

underscore the need for continued investments to make the buildings, cities, towns, and 

communities in which we live, and the infrastructure upon which we depend, not only less 

vulnerable to the forces of nature but also more resilient when disasters unfold. How these events 

affect us reflects not only the power of nature, but also the decisions we make in how we build and 

safeguard our communities. 

Fundamental research on the meteorological aspects of wind hazards is continuing with support 

from the Federal agencies, and there are a number of areas where additional knowledge and action 

have reduced the impact of windstorms to lives and property. Notable successes have been 

demonstrated in the following areas:

 Advances in NOAA’s satellite‐based observations, supercomputers, and data assimilation 

and modeling have reduced average hurricane forecast track errors significantly, to about 

half of what they were 15 years ago;
29

 Advances in the use of aircraft data have demonstrated the potential for significant 

improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts (20 to 40 percent), breaking a 30-year logjam 

in intensity forecast improvements;

 Improvements in the understanding of tornadogenesis as well as forecasting and prediction 

have enabled NWS to double the average lead time for tornado warnings over the past two 

decades to 13 minutes;

 FEMA publications presenting design and construction guidance for safe rooms have been 

available since 1998. Since that time, over one million copies have been distributed and 

thousands of safe rooms have been built, and a growing number of these safe rooms have 

already saved lives in actual events. There has not been a single reported failure of a safe 

room constructed to FEMA criteria; 

 Gains in structural engineering research and mitigation assessment have allowed FEMA to 

update its published guidance for better and more efficient safe room design and 

construction against windstorms, much of which has also been incorporated into the ICC 

500 Standard for the Design and Construction of Storm Shelters;

 FEMA successfully proposed two building code changes for the 2015 IBC, which require 

ICC 500-compliant storm shelters in new schools and first-responder facilities in the areas 

of the Nation with the highest tornado risk; 

 Results of wind engineering research and post-storm studies by NIST have led to changes 

in the wind loading provisions of the ASCE 7 Standard and International Building Code 

that enhance life safety and property protection for windstorms;

 Improvements in tornado intensity estimation (developed jointly by NIST, NOAA, and 

Texas Tech University) have allowed the Enhanced Fujita (EF) tornado scale to be 

introduced by the NWS in 2007 to reflect more accurate examinations of tornado damage 

surveys and to align wind speeds more closely and effectively with associated storm 

damage; 

 The results of research funded by NSF grants have strengthened windstorm disaster 

evacuation management practices in the United States through advancements in planning 

and preparedness efforts and a better understanding of how communities perform in 

hosting incoming evacuees; and

 Results of wind engineering research by FHWA have contributed to a better understanding 

of bridge cable aerodynamics and effectiveness of associated wind mitigation techniques, 

improved techniques for physical and computational modeling of wind hazards to 

transportation structures, as well as updates of design guides and specifications. 

There are opportunities for further improvements in windstorm prediction capabilities and for 

additional observations to advance understanding of how the built environment responds to 

windstorm events. In addition, efficient warning systems and social analysis can improve warning 

response, mitigate user complacency, better support effective decision making, and reduce the 

losses associated with devastating windstorms.

To help address these and related issues, the NWIRP agencies, academia, and the private sector 

continue to build on past activities, including those identified in this report, to identify and 

prioritize specific measurement science research and development needs for windstorm impact 

reduction. 
30

APPENDIX A: KEY ABBREVIATIONS

ANL Argonne National Laboratory

AOML Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

ASCE American Society of Civil Engineers

BFE Base Flood Elevation

CFD Computational Fluid Dynamics

CISS Critical Infrastructure-based Societal Systems

CSM Computational Structural Mechanics

DOE Department of Education

EF Enhanced Fujita

ESRL/GSD Earth System Research Laboratory Global Systems Division

FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency

FHWA Federal Highway Administration

FLASH Federal Alliance for Safe Homes

FPHLM Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model

GOES-R Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite – R Series

HDPE High Density Polyethylene Pipe

HFIP Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program

HRRR High Resolution Rapid Refresh

HWT Hazardous Weather Testbed

IBC International Building Code

IFEX Intensity Forecasting Experiment

IRC International Residential Code

JHT Joint Hurricane Testbed

MAT Mitigation Assessment Team

MPAR Multifunction Phased Array Radar

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration

NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program

NCST National Construction Safety Team

NHC National Hurricane Center

NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

NRCC National Research Council of Canada

NSF National Science Foundation

NSSL National Severe Storms Laboratory

NSTC National Science and Technology Council

NWIRA National Windstorm Impact Reduction Act

NWIRP National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program

NWS National Weather Service

ONR Office of Naval Research

OSTP Office of Science and Technology Policy

OUN National Weather Service Forecast Office in Norman, Oklahoma

RAP Rapid Refresh Model

SDE Substantial Damage Estimator
31

SDR Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction

SPC Storm Prediction Center

TC Tropical Cyclone

TFHRC Turner Fairbank Highway Research Center

TRACC Transportation Research and Analysis Computing Center

VORTEX2 Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment 2

WoF Warn-on-Forecast

WRN Weather-Ready Nation