1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Just Two Countries—India and China—Account

for Almost a Third of Population Increase

World Population Keeps Growing...

Even as Rate of Growth Falls

Midyear world population by development category

and average annual growth rate: 1950 to 2020

Less Developed

Average 

annual growth 

rate for the 

decade (percent)

More Developed

(Population in billions)

2.6

1.7

0.8

3.0

2.1

0.9

3.7

2.7

1.0

4.5

3.4

1.1

5.3

4.1

1.1

6.1

4.9

1.2

6.9

5.6

1.2

7.6

6.4

1.2

1.7%

1.0%

 



Note: Figures for components may not add to total because of rounding.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1996, World Population Profile: 1996,

tables A-1 and A-2.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1996, World Population Profile: 1996,

table A-4.

Where People

Live Today

Where Growth

Occurs

Other

Latin America and 

the Caribbean

Near East and 

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Other Asia

India

China





22%

9%

5%

10%

17%

16%

21%

6%

9%

10%

23%

22%

19%

11%

Distribution of the 

world population 1996

Distribution of 1996 to 2020

population increase

International Brief

IB/96-3

Issued September 1996

U.S. Department of Commerce

Economics and Statistics Administration

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

The 1994 International Conference

on Population and Development

(ICPD) in Cairo focused the world’s

attention on the challenge facing all

nations as they seek to integrate

population and development policies and programs.

This brief describes trends in population growth and other key demographic indicators over the next

quarter century. It summarizes 

the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest

estimates and projections of worldwide population, population growth,

fertility, life expectancy, and infant

mortality. The impact of AIDS

mortality, trends in family planning,

and the special problem of adolescent fertility also are discussed.

More detailed statistics (including

data for each country), implications

of demographic trends for the goals

of the ICPD, and a special focus 

on adolescent fertility in developing

countries are presented in the U.S.

Census Bureau’s World Population

Profile: 1996.

Almost 2 Billion More 

People in 2020

According to Census Bureau 

projections, world population will 

increase from its present level 

of 5.8 billion persons to almost 

6.1 billion in 2000 and 7.6 billion

persons by 2020.

This increase will occur despite a

slowdown in the rate of growth—

from the current annual rate of 1.5

percent to less than 1 percent over

the next quarter century.
–20 0 20 40 60 80 100

Large Increases in Numbers of Women of 

Childbearing Age in Most Regions

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1996, World Population Profile: 1996,

figure 11.

Percent change from 1996 to 2020 in number of

women ages 15 to 49

Rest of the World

Latin America and

the Caribbean

Near East and

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Other Asia

Eastern Europe and the

New Independent States

China

(Mainland and Taiwan)

2

Developing Countries 

Account for Nearly All 

of Population Growth

About 95 percent of the world 

population increase will occur in

today’s less developed countries

(LDC’s), although they comprise

about 80 percent of current population. Because of the more rapid

growth in LDC’s, the share of world

population living in the more developed countries (MDC’s) of today

will fall from 20 percent today to 

16 percent in 2020.

Sub-Saharan Africa and the Near

East and North Africa are the 

fastest growing regions—their 

combined share of world population

will increase, rising from 15 percent

today to 20 percent in 2020.

Half the World’s 

Population Lives in 

Six Countries

China, India, the United States, 

Indonesia, Brazil, and Russia are

the most populous countries in the

world today, but shifts in ranks will

occur over the coming 25 years as

some of today’s smaller high-fertility

countries overtake currently larger

ones. By 2020, Nigeria and Pakistan will have joined the six biggest

list while Brazil and Russia will

have dropped off. Although India

will not overtake China in the next

quarter century, it will add more

people—337 million compared to

China’s increase of 207 million.

World Population Grows 

Even as Births Plateau

The equation of world population

growth—births minus deaths

equals increase—will result in 

almost 80 million more people this

year. While annual births (133 

million in 1996) remain at about the

same level over the next 25 years,

deaths will continue to rise (54 million in 1996 to 64 million in 2020)

as populations age. But total population will continue to increase. 

Births Steady Despite 

Falling Fertility

(Births in millions)

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,

1996, World Population Profile: 1996,

figure 18.

(Births per woman)

’96 2000 2010 2020

2

3

4

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Total fertility rate

Births

0

1990

Over 130 Million Births Annually

Despite Falling Fertility

For at least the next quarter century, some 132 to 135 million births

will occur annually—even though,

on average, women will be having

fewer children.

The steady number of births 

despite lower fertility reflects 

the growing number of women 

of childbearing age (15-49 years),

particularly in the developing world.

Just the increase (119 million) in

the number of women ages 15-49

in Sub-Saharan Africa is almost as

large as the total number of women

in these ages in the Near East and

North Africa in 2020 (123 million).

As a result, the number of births 

in Sub-Saharan Africa will rise 

from 25 million in 1996 to 33 million

in 2020.

The Gap in Life Expectancy 

Between More and Less 

Developed Countries Continues

Life expectancy at birth is increasing in almost all countries. However, the gap between the more and

less developed countries will probably narrow only slightly by 2020.

Life expectancy in LDC’s increases

by 6 years to 67, while in MDC’s 

it rises by 5 years to 79.

Eight Million Infants to 

Die This Year

About 15 percent of all deaths

worldwide are infant deaths, with

the highest proportion prevailing 

in Sub-Saharan Africa (26 percent

of all deaths are infant deaths).
Life Expectancy and Infant Mortality

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1996, World Population Profile: 1996,

tables A-9 and A-10.

Life expectancy

at birth (years)

World 62 69 60 34 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Less Developed Countries . . . . . . . 61 67 66 37

More Developed Countries . . . . . . 74 79 11 6

Sub-Saharan Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 55 95 62

Near East and North Africa . . . . . . 67 75 52 20

China (Mainland and Taiwan) 70 77 39 13 . . . . 

Other Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 69 71 35

Latin America and the Caribbean . 68 74 40 19

Eastern Europe and the

 New Independent States . . . . . . . 66 73 39 22

Rest of the World 77 80 7 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

Infant deaths

per 1,000 live births

1996 2020 1996 2020

3

Less developed countries, with 

an average infant mortality rate 

6 times that of more developed

countries, account for 98 percent 

of infant deaths in the world.

If present trends continue, the total

number of infant deaths worldwide

will drop by about half, to 4.5 million, by the year 2020.

Fifty Million Persons 

Will Die From AIDS From 

1996 to 2010...

Population projections of the U.S.

Bureau of the Census incorporate

the mortality impact of AIDS in 23

less developed countries particularly hard hit by the AIDS pandemic—

nearly 2 million additional deaths 

in 1996, rising to about 4.5 million

in 2010. AIDS-related deaths 

account for about 22 percent of 

all deaths in these countries in

1996; 38 percent in 2010.

...Slowing but Not Halting 

Population Growth

Even for the 23 countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic,

the total population will continue to

grow, increasing at an average

annual rate of 1.8 percent (between 1996 and 2010) rather than

2.3 percent. Even at the slower

rate of increase, this is still faster

than the rest of the developing

world.

The World is Getting Older...

Between now and 2020, the median age—the midpoint that separates the younger half from the 

older half of the population—of

world population will rise 5 years,

from 26 to 31.

The elderly (65 and over) are the

fastest growing segment of the

population—increasing 88 percent

by 2020 compared with a 28 percent increase for the rest of the

population.

Even in the LDC’s, the elderly are

the fastest growing age group and

will increase from less than 5 percent of the population today to 7.5

percent in 2020.

...and More Urban

Urban population is expected to

rise from 46 to 58 percent of total

population between 1996 and

2020. The most urbanized major

region in the developing world is

(In percent)

1996

2020

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census,

1996, World Population Profile: 1996,

table A-7.

Age Structure of

World Population

Children Working age Elderly

0-14 15-64 65+

31

25

62

66

7

9

Latin America and the Caribbean

(already 75 percent and rising to 83

percent), while Sub-Saharan Africa

will increase at the most rapid rate,

growing from 31 percent urban

today to 48 percent urban by the

year 2020.

More Women Everywhere 

Are Adopting Family Planning...

Trends vary considerably around

the world, but contraceptive prevalence—the percentage of married

women of reproductive age using

some method of contraception—

has risen virtually everywhere 

during the past two decades.

...but Unmet Need for Family

Planning is Widespread...

Despite growing contraceptive use,

surveys suggest that about 20 percent of married women in LDC’s

are not using family planning 

despite a desire to limit or space

their births.

This unmet need for family planning is greatest in Sub-Saharan

Africa, where it exceeds 20 percent

in almost all surveyed countries

and is as high as 40 percent in

some (Rwanda, Togo).

...Including 12 Million 

Adolescent Women

From 15 to 48 percent of currently

married adolescent women (ages

15 to 19) in each region of the developing world classify themselves

as having unmet need for contraception—3 million women in

Sub-Saharan Africa, 8 million

women in Asia (excluding China

and Japan), Near East and North

Africa, and 1 million women in 

Latin America and the Caribbean.

The Challenge of Teenage 

Pregnancy and Childbearing

The need for special attention to

adolescents’ reproductive health is

recognized in the ICPD Program of

Action. Pregnancies among adolescents are high risk—these

young women are more likely than

older women to suffer pregnancy-
Adolescent Births in Sub-Saharan Africa 

Are Disproportionately High

Note: Asia, Near East, and North Africa excludes China and Japan. 

 The Remaining World includes North America, Europe, Japan, 

 Oceania, and China.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1996, World Population Profile: 1996,

figures 49 and 50.

Where Teens Live

Where Their Babies Are Born

Sub-Saharan Africa

16%

Remaining World

31%

Latin America and

the Caribbean

9%

Sub-Saharan Africa

33%

Remaining World

17%

Asia, Near East,

and North Africa

44%

Asia, Near East,

and North Africa

42%

Latin America and

the Caribbean

8%

Distribution of the 

adolescent women (1996-2020)

Distribution of births to

adolescents (1996-2020)

4

related complications that endanger

both their lives and the lives of their

babies.

In some less developed countries,

maternal mortality rates for women

ages 15-19 are more than double

those of women in their 20’s and

early 30’s. Infant mortality rates for

teenage births are as much as 80

percent higher than those for births

to women in their 20’s. And infants

born to adolescent mothers face

greater risks of low birth weight,

prematurity, birth injuries, stillbirth,

and mortality than do babies born

to older women.

Because of their high rates of 

adolescent fertility, developing

countries account for 90 percent 

of births to teenagers: more than

300 million babies will be born to

adolescent women living in Africa,

Asia, and Latin America over the

next quarter of a century.

Sub-Saharan African adolescent

fertility rates are generally higher

than those elsewhere. The regional average rate (138 births per

1,000 women ages 15 to 19) is

over twice that of the other developing regions. Many European

and other more developed countries have rates under 30 births 

per 1,000 women, although the

adolescent fertility rate in the

United States (61) is almost 

equal to the average rate for 

the developing world (63).

For reasons of health, as well as

the broader societal costs of early

childbearing, the reproductive

health of teenagers will need 

special attention as governments

formulate their responses to the 

reproductive health challenges

highlighted at the ICPD.

More Information

World Population Profile: 1996. 

Series WP/96.

Trends in Adolescent Fertility and

Contraceptive Use in the Developing World. IPC/95-1.

The International Programs Center

(IPC) collects, assesses, and analyzes population and related statistics from all countries. Based on

these data, IPC produces the

demographic estimates and projections used in this series of reports.

Additional information is available

from the International Programs

Center, Population Division, Bureau

of the Census, Washington, DC

20233-8860 (Internet e-mail:

ipc@census.gov).