NISTIR 7971

Roadmap for Developing 

Measurement Science for Predicting 

the Service Life of Polymers Used in 

Photovoltaic (PV) Systems

Xiaohong Gu

Joannie W. Chin 
NISTIR 7971 

Roadmap for Developing 

Measurement Science for Predicting 

the Service Life of Polymers Used in 

Photovoltaic (PV) Systems

Xiaohong Gu

Joannie W. Chin 

Polymeric Materials Group

Engineering laboratory

February 2014

U.S. Department of Commerce 

Penny Pritzker, Secretary

National Institute of Standards and Technology 

Patrick D. Gallagher, Under Secretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology and Director 
ii

Roadmap for 

Developing Measurement 

Science for Predicting the 

Service Life of Polymers Used in 

Photovoltaic (PV) Systems

--- A summary of 

NIST Engineering 

Laboratory/Industry 

Workshop on 

Durability and Service Life 

Prediction of PV Polymeric 

Materials
iii

Roadmap for 

Developing Measurement Science for Predicting the Service 

Life of Polymers Used in Photovoltaic (PV) Systems

--- A summary of NIST Engineering Laboratory/Industry Workshop on 

“Durability and Service Life Prediction of PV Polymeric Materials”

Xiaohong Gu and Joannie Chin

Polymeric Materials Group

Engineering Laboratory

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Gaithersburg, MD 20899
iv

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... v

1. Introduction ..............................................................................................................1

A. Background and Broad Challenges for PV Technology..............................1

B. The Need for Reliability Studies and Accelerated Lifetime Tests...................2

C. Workshop Scope and the Process.........................................................................5

2. Workshop Break-out Session Summary..................................................................8

3. Statement of Work (SOW) for NIST/Industry Consortium on 

Service Life Prediction of Polymers in Photovoltaic Systems ...............................16

4. Proposed Roadmap for Developing Measurement Science for Predicting

the Service Life of Polymers Used in PV Systems..................................................26

A. Development of Reliability-based Accelerated Laboratory Tests 

 for PV Polymeric Materials and Components...................................................... 28

B. Development of Long-term Adhesion Tests for PV Module Components......... 30

C. Failure Mode Analysis and Non-destructive Polymeric Material 

 Characterizations for PV Modules......................................................................... 32

Appendix A: List of Attendees.......................................................................................34

Appendix B: Workshop Agenda....................................................................................35
v

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The technology roadmap for developing measurement science for predicting the service life of 

polymers used in PV systems has been drafted in this report. This roadmap was developed from 

the NIST Engineering Laboratory/Industry Workshop on Durability and Service Life Prediction 

of PV Polymeric Materials, and the research proposal and Statement of Work (SOW) on Service 

Life Prediction of Polymers in Photovoltaic Systems for a NIST/industry consortium.. The

workshop on Durability and Service Life Prediction of PV Polymeric Materials was held at 

NIST, Gaithersburg, Maryland during September 23-24, 2010, with two follow-up meetings held 

at NIST in March 2011 and October 2011. The objectives of this workshop were to solicit 

industry feedbacks in identifying critical measurements needed to assess performance and 

predict service lives of polymeric materials used in PV systems, and to determine the best 

mechanism for engaging with PV industry and aligning with previous and existing efforts in 

reliability and performance of PV systems. The critical measurement science needs in four areas 

were discussed in the workshop including 1) PV materials, 2) cells/modules, 3) reliability and 

testing, and 4) safety standards and codes, with emphasis on what critical measurement science 

needed to link accelerated tests with outdoor performance and to enable prediction of PV system 

service lives. The workshop inputs have been used to develop a Statement of Work for a 

proposed NIST/industry PV consortium. With a strong collaborative effort between NIST and 

PV industries, such a consortium has been recently formed. The industry partners include 

suppliers of polymeric components for PV systems, cell and module manufacturers, and PV 

users. This roadmap supports NIST Strategic Goal of Sustainable and Energy-Efficient 

Manufacturing, Materials, and Infrastructure through the program of Net-Zero Energy, HighPerformance Green Buildings. It also can be used by both the public and private sectors to guide 

policy, Research and Development, and other decision making relevant to important areas in PV 

materials and module reliability.
1

1. INTRODUCTION

A. Background and Broad Challenges for PV Technology 

Solar energy is the most abundant renewable energy resource on the planet. The limitless supply 

of solar energy makes PV an ideal alternative for power generation. In the past few years, the 

global PV industry has shown exponential growth, and it is forecast that worldwide annual 

capacity will reach 200 GW in 2020, 300 GW in 20251

. Meanwhile, the costs and prices have 

been rapidly reduced. 

However, a number of major challenges remain despite significant progresses have been made in

the PV technology. The reports from NIST Grand Challenges for Advanced Photovoltaic 

Technologies and Measurements Workshop2 identified six broad challenges in PV technology 

and measurement. 

(1) Materials to device analysis. 

(2) Inline manufacturing tests. 

(3) Module characterization. 

(4) Solar resource. 

(5) Reliability studies and accelerated lifetime tests. 

(6) Regulation and permitting. 

Among these challenges, reliability concerns of the PV products ultimately influences customer 

confidence in this technology; hence, we will specifically address this issue and develop the 

strategic plans towards how to establish the reliability-based accelerated lifetime tests.

 1

 US Department of Energy, 2008 Solar Technologies Market Report, January, 2010.

2

 Reports of NIST Workshop: Grand Challenges for Advanced Photovoltaic Technologies and 

Measurements, May 11–12, 2010, Denver, Colorado. 

(http://events.energetics.com/NISTGrandChallenges2010/downloads.html)
2

B. The Need for Reliability Studies and Accelerated Lifetime Tests

The success of PV technologies depends in large part on a clear demonstration of the long-term 

reliability of PV modules and systems. Reliability studies and development of effective 

accelerated lifetime tests are crucial to this goal, ensuring consumer confidence and product 

lifetime guarantees. Today’s performance warranty is typically 80 % of rated power after 25 to 

30 years. However, most current PV products only have a few years or less of field history. The 

development of new materials and the efforts to lower the costs such as changes in processing, 

materials, or structures of PV modules, will result in more products with unknown field histories. 

Since outdoor tests take too long (i.e., > 25 years), accelerated laboratory tests must be 

developed and utilized to qualify the new products. Nevertheless, developing a reliability-based 

accelerated laboratory tests that are capable of evaluating PV module lifetime performance is not 

a simple task. 

Currently, some qualification and safety tests are used by manufacturers as a means for assessing 

the product quality, safety and reliability. These commonly used qualification and safety tests are

listed below.

• IEC 61215, “Crystalline silicon terrestrial photovoltaic (PV) modules-Design 

qualification and type approval”

• IEC 61646, “Thin-film terrestrial photovoltaic (PV) modules-Design qualification and 

type approval”

• IEC 62108, “CPV terrestrial photovoltaic (PV) modules-Design qualification and type 

approval”

• IEC 61730, “Photovoltaic (PV) module safety qualification” (for all modules)

• UL 61730, "Standard for Flat-Plate Photovoltaic Modules and Panels”

Among those tests, the IEC61215, IEC61646 and IEC62108 are designed for performance 

evaluation of PV modules. Figure 1 shows the flow charts of IEC 61215 tests for crystalline 

silicon PV modules. As seen, the environmental stresses of UV preconditioning, thermal cycling, 

humidity freeze or damp heat (85 °C, 85 % Relative Humidity (RH)) are sequential applied to 

PV modules during these tests. The visual, mechanical, and electrical properties of the products 
3

are assessed to determine if they pass or fail the criteria. The test procedures for thin-film PV 

and concentrated PV in IEC 61646 and IEC 62108, respectively, are similar to those shown for 

IEC61215. The safety tests of IEC 61730 describe the fundamental construction requirements for 

PV modules to provide safe electrical and mechanical operation during their expected lifetime.

Figure 1. The flow charts of IEC 61215 environmental tests.

Note that these qualification and safety tests are for short-term “infant mortality”; they do not 

and cannot predict lifetime data. Therefore, they are not the reliability tests. Their deficiencies

can be reflected in the following aspects: (1) the qualification tests are based on known field 

failure mechanisms; they may not identify the failure mechanisms that occur with new 

technologies for which field data does not exist3

, (2) the qualification tests are sequential single-

 3

 J.H. Wohlgemuth, “Reliability of PV System”, Proc. of SPIE Vol.7048 704802 (2008)
4

stress tests, such as UV preconditioning, or thermal-cycling without UV irradiation; they cannot 

identify the failure mechanisms that are caused by simultaneous multiple stresses, especially 

when synergistic effects between different stresses exist, (3) the duration time or/and the dose 

used in these tests lacks a scientific foundation, they may not identify the failure mechanism 

that appears after long term outdoor exposure. Therefore, even after passing the above tests, the 

failures still can still be observed from these products during their expected service lifetime. 

Table 1. Common Failure Modes for Crystalline Silicon Modules

Broken Interconnects, Broken Cells, Broken Glass

Corrosion

Interlayer Delamination and/or Loss of Elastic Properties (Creep)

Encapsulant Discoloration

Solder Bond Failure

Hot Spot

Arcing

Ground Faults

Junction Box and Module Connection Failures

Structure Failures

Bypass Diode Failures

Wohlgemuth and Kurtz4 from NREL have summarized the major field failure modes for 

crystalline silicon PV modules, thin film PV modules and concentration PV modules. As an 

example, the common failure modes for crystalline silicon modules are listed in Tables 1. 

Among these modes, some failures are probably related to installations, such as broken 

interconnects or broken glass. However, many failures could be related to material properties, 

especially for polymeric components including encapsulants, frontsheets, backsheets, edge seals 

and junction boxes which are susceptible to environmental and mechanical attacks. Figure 2 

provides some representative pictures of the failures resulted from degradation of polymeric 

materials. These failures include discoloration of the encapsulant or the backsheet, delamination 

between backsheet and encapsulant, junction box detachment, connector brittleness, etc.

 4

 J.H. Wohlgemuth and S. Kurt, “Reliability Testing Beyond Qualification as a Key Component in 

Photovoltaic’s Progress Toward Grid Parity”, Proc. IEEE International Reliability Physics Symposium 

(2011)
5

Figure 2. Examples of common failure modes for PV modules related to polymeric materials.

Unfortunately, current standardized test methods used for qualifying PV polymers are only 

useful for detecting premature failures or comparing the performance of one against another, and 

not for predicting service life or ensuring long-term reliability of products. No validated 

accelerated aging test currently exists to enable prediction of PV performance and reliability for 

30+ years.

C. Workshop Scope and the Process

In response to the need to ensure that measurement science keeps pace with the needed 

technology innovations, the Polymeric Materials Group at Engineering Laboratory, NIST 

collaborated with Underwriter Laboratory to sponsor and host the NIST/Industry Workshop on 

Polymers in PV Applications on September 23-24 at NIST, Gaithersburg, Maryland. Experts 

from industry, government, national laboratories, and academia (Appendix A) attended this 

workshop. The scope and the objectives of the workshop were to

 Solicit industry feedback in identifying critical measurements needed to assess 

performance and predict service lives of polymeric materials used in PV systems, and 

 Discoloration/browning of encapsulant or 

backsheet

 Encapsulant delamination

 Backsheet delamination

 Junction box detachment

 Brittleness of wires/connectors

Courtesy of UL (Edwin Yang)

Unwanted Property Changes Related To Polymers in PV Systems

Large

Bubble

Wavy (Delaminated) 
6

how to best develop measurement science to ensure long-term reliability and safety of 

these components.

 Determine the best mechanism for engaging with PV industry and for aligning with 

previous and existing efforts on the reliability and performance of PV systems.

Figure 3. NIST/Industry PV Workshop Announcement

The workshop was comprised of technical presentations and breakout brainstorming sessions. 

Presentations included “Market Overview”, “Technical Challenges and Measurement Needs of 

PV technology”, and “Methodology for Service Life Prediction of PV materials” (Appendix B). 

In the breakout session, the participants were divided into four groups, discussing about what 

were the critical measurement science needs in the areas of 1) PV Materials, 2) Cells/modules, 3) 

Reliability and testing, and 4) Safety standards and codes, and what was critical measurement 

science needed to link accelerated tests with outdoor performance and enable prediction of PV 

system service lives. Each group was rotated through each breakout session. To establish 

measurement science priorities, participants were given five votes and asked to assign these

votes to the measurement barriers they considered to be most critical in terms of ensuring long-
7

term reliability and safety of the PV modules. The results of the votes are summarized in the 

next chapter.

Figure 4. NIST/Industry PV Workshop Breakout Sessions

There were two follow-up meetings held at NIST in March 2011 and October 2011 after this 

workshop. The purposes of these meetings were (1) to identify the most critical measurement 

needs generated from breakout sessions, (2) to determine whether a NIST/industry consortium 

on service life prediction of polymers for photovoltaic systems is need, (3) to convene interested 

parties to develop draft statements of work for inclusion in a Cooperative Research and 

Development Agreement (CRADA) statement.

The remainder of this report summarizes the outcome of the above workshop and meetings, and 

presents a roadmap for measurement science needed to predict service lives of PV polymeric 

materials, components, and modules. A Statement of Work (SOW) for a NIST/industry 

consortium on Service Life Prediction of Polymers in Photovoltaic Systems that was developed 

from the results of the workshop and follow-up meetings is also given in the report. The industry 

partners in this consortium include suppliers of polymeric components for PV systems, cell and 

module manufacturers, and users. This report will guide NIST projects on developing 

measurement science for predicting the service life of polymers used in PV systems, and also 
8

will be used by both the public and private sectors to guide policy, R&D, and other decision 

making relevant to the important area of reliability of PV modules.

2. WORKSHOP BREAK-OUT SESSION SUMMARY 

The raw data from the break-out session votes are listed in Table 2 by the topic areas of 1) PV 

Materials, 2) Cells/modules, 3) Reliability and testing, and 4) Safety standards and codes. An 

additional summary is made by integrating the same type of measurement science needs from 

the top choices in different topic areas. By this way, the most critical measurement needs to

assess performance and to ensure long-term reliability and safety of the materials, modules and 

systems are identified and shown in Tables 3 and 4. 

Table 2. Raw data from the break-out session votes by the topic areas (● = one vote)
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Table 2. Raw data from the break-out session votes by the topic areas (continued)

PV Workshop Breakout Sessions – Raw Data

1. PV Materials

1.1. Include electric field as added stress factor and determine appropriate voltage

1.2. Establish common form factor for test method and end-use application

1.3. Develop rapid test for cured encapsulant (i.e. OEM test method for cross-linked 

density, residual volatility, etc).

1.4. Develop test method for adhesion of interfaces with need to develop appropriate stress 

in addition or replacement of damp heat.

1.5. Correlation of SPHERE test method and conditions to standard weathering equipment 

used by industry.

1.6. Comparison of cyclic vs. constant aging test protocols.

1.7. Establish test regimes for polymer classes based on physical (material) properties such 

as fundamental understanding of polymer hydrolysis.

1.8. Measure ingress of O2, H2O, etc. in a fielded module from multiple representative 

climates; measure permeation/diffusion rate of O2, H2O, etc.

1.9. Study failure modes connected to fundamental material properties. 

1.10. Develop standard test measurements for optical properties such as color, transmission, 

gloss, etc. (normalized to thickness). 

1.11. Maintain and provide representative formulation of standard EVA used for theoretical 

basis to develop test methods.

1.12. QC control for EVA to determine level of “precure.”

1.13. Provide example study involving corrosion measurement of mirror coatings to 

understand degradation mechanism.

1.14. Develop standard reference measurement for basic component materials to establish 

benchmark interlab test results.

1.15. Provide test method for interfacial adhesion of polymer/polymer, polymer/metal, 

polymer/glass that relates to lifetime of component, not just a release spec.

1.16. Collect information (via database) for environmental pollution (acid rain) test method 

or other regional (climate) specific tests.
10

1.17 Provide a mechanistic study of fundamental understanding of polymer degradation for 

common/benchmark materials (standard reference materials). 

1.18. Provide forum to develop test methods and standard development or fundamental 

scientific understanding.

1.19. Provide guidance for material test results translated to module or system 

performance/safety. 

1.20. Develop “early warning” analytical test for materials

1.21. Establish standard form factor for testing.

1.22. Establish common database to determine validity of accelerated aging for different 

materials. 

1.23. Determine/identify material requirements for different or specific end-use applications.

1.24. In-line method to measure quality of lamination or curing process.

1.25. Develop standard test method for specific failure mode – qualification test indicative of 

actual lifetime. 

1.26. Develop (predictive) adhesion test method or specific (common) delamination 

interfaces corresponding to observed failures based on appropriate loads. 

1.27. Fundamental adhesion measurement science for multilayer films and coatings – i.e. 

interconnection failure points between polymer and wire.

1.28. Determine compatibility of materials under specific loads and accelerated aging.

1.29. Investigate heterogeneous failure modes

1.30. Develop standard tests (such as UV) method for high performance materials – maxium 

performance (with appropriate safety factor) not minimum requirements.

2. Cells and Modules

2.1. Supply chain accountability (cell and module)

2.2. Chemical degradation measure at low concentrations – interfacial surface concentration

2.3. UV resistance of polymers used to protect cells
11

Table 2. Raw data from the break-out session votes by the topic areas (continued)

2.4. Early detection of early failures – arcing, chemical measurement relating to early 

degradation. 

2.5. End of life tests for polymers

2.6. Bonding and Adhesion 

2.7. Balance of system effects on modules? (i.e. high voltage ac component transmitted to 

modules through inverter?)

2.8. Solder bonds, bypass diodes, cell breakage (measurement by electro-luminiscence), jbox adhesion.

2.9. Lifetime variability – what happens to materials after 20 years in the field? 

2.10. Non-destructive field tests to determine polymer degradation – electroluminescence 

field kit.

2.11. Effect of module fire rating – in specific applications

2.12. In-line dielectric tests during manufacture

2.13. FTIR analysis for item 2.2, above. 

2.14. Non-destructive interfacial tests during manufacturing, plus field

2.15. Corrosion testing – at cell level

2.16. Module level failure analysis to uncover weak links – FMEA and relationship to 

polymeric materials.

2.17. Look at back contact material failures and relation to polymers and conductive 

adhesives.

2.18. Soiling – testing thereof; accelerated laboratory tests.

3. Testing and Reliability

Qualification Testing

3.1. Add UV exposure as a environmental stressor

3.2. Standardize between multiple versions of different qualification tests

3.3. Make changes to partial discharge test – results show a high degree of scatter

3.4. Inexpensive, accelerated tests that correlate to field performance; scientific basis for 

selection of conditions would inspire more confidence.

3.5. Some qualification test conditions should be revisited, e.g. 85/85 damp heat test.
12

Table 2. Raw data from the break-out session votes by the topic areas (continued)

3.6. In-situ, non-destructive, analytical (chemical and physical) tests of in-service modules. 

3.7. Tests for interfaces/adhesion (particularly interfacial corrosion), involving 

temperature/moisture cycling.

3.8. Qualification tests for materials and components, rather than just modules.

3.9. Simple/rapid/inexpensive test involving multiple stressors and multiple evaluation tests, 

in one package.

3.10 Improved power output testing

 Service Life Prediction

3.11. Tests that correlate to fundamental mechanisms of degradation. 

3.12. Tests that identify/isolate failure modes

3.13. NIST standard reference cell or component

4. Safety, Standards and Codes

 PV Materials/Polymers (Properties)

4.1. Maximum temperature (RTI)

4.2. Flammability

4.3. Optical transmission

4.4. Dielectric properties

4.5. CTI (question validity)

4.6. Degradation conditions (radiation, temp, RH)

4.7. Define degradation reaction pathways

4.8. Classification of materials

4.9. Dynamic mechanical analysis
13

Table 2. Raw data from the break-out session votes by the topic areas (continued)

PV Components (properties)

4.10. Maximum temperature

4.11. Flammability

4.12. Interfacial adhesion (between components)

4.13. Electrical performance

4.14. Degradation (radiation, temp, RH, DC voltage)

4.15. Consider composite mock-up (powered, non-powered) for qualification tests

4.16. Consider risk assessment of mock-up approach

4.17 Define combinations of materials and need for additional testing (define guidance)

PV Modules (performance)

4.18. Fault tree analysis (FTA/FMEA) of system

4.19. Electrical insulation

4.20. Electrical performance

4.21. Flammability (UL SolarABC study)

4.22. Evaluate relationship of dimensions on fire performance

4.23. Assessment of First Responder requirements

4.24. Define exposure conditions (radiation, temp, RH)

4.25 Classification end-use applications (thermal ratings)

4.26. Correlation of material properties to performance is not well understood
14

Based on these raw data, we ranked the topics with the most votes among all break-out sessions; 

the top ten most voted needs are listed below with the identification of measurement category. 

1. Provide simple/rapid/inexpensive test involving multiple stressors and 

multiple evaluation tests, in one package. (3-9, 15 votes) ---Accelerated test

2. Provide a mechanistic study of fundamental understanding of polymer 

degradation for common/benchmark materials (standard reference materials). 

(1-27, 12 votes ) ---Mechanism/fundamental study

3. Early detection of early failures – arcing, chemical measurement relating to 

early degradation.( 2-4, 12 votes ) ---Early detection

4. Provide inexpensive, accelerated tests that correlate to field performance; 

scientific basis for selection of conditions would inspire more confidence. (3-

4, 8 votes ) ---Accelerated test

5. Define degradation reaction pathways (4-7, 8 votes)

6. Maximum temperature (RTI) (4-1, 8 votes)

7. Develop test method for adhesion of interfaces with need to develop 

appropriate stress in addition or replacement of damp heat. (1-5, 7 votes)---

Adhesion/interface

8. Develop (predictive) adhesion test method or specific (common) delamination 

interfaces corresponding to observed failures based on appropriate loads.(1-

26, 7 votes) ---Adhesion/interface

9. Some qualification test conditions should be revisited, e.g., 85/85 damp heat 

test. (3-5, 7 votes) ---Accelerated test

10. Consider composite mock-up (powered, non-powered) for qualification tests 

(4-15, 7 votes) ---Accelerated test
15

 Fundamental study of PV polymer degradation and 

mechanistic pathways in regards to UV, temperature, and 

moisture; development of knowledge base for use in 

detection of early failures. 

 Scientifically-based material/module qualification test 

involving multiple stressors (temperature, moisture, UV) and 

multiple property tests. 

 Test method to assess long-term adhesion of PV module 

components.

 Module Safety – maximum temperature, flammability

Greatest Interest from Break-out Session

As shown above, some topics have the same measurement needs, for example, “Provide 

simple/rapid/inexpensive test involving multiple stressors and multiple evaluation tests, in one 

package” and “Provide inexpensive, accelerated tests that correlate to field performance; 

scientific basis for selection of conditions would inspire more confidence”; both address the 

same measurement science needs as development of accelerated test. By combining the needs 

under the same category, the overall summary of the topics with greatest interest for service life 

prediction, long-term reliability and safety of the materials and modules are identified and 

displayed in Tables 3. Based on this result, a Statement of Work (SOW) for a consortium on 

Service Life Prediction of Polymers in Photovoltaic Systems has developed. The R&D roadmap 

for developing measurement science for predicting the service life of polymer materials used in 

PV systems is also proposed. These will be presented in the following chapters.

Table 3. Areas of greatest interest from break-out sessions for fervice life prediction and longterm reliability of PV materials and modules
16

3. STATEMENT OF WORK (SOW) FOR A NIST/INDUSTRY 

CONSORTIUM ON SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION OF 

POLYMERS IN PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS

The results of the above NIST Engineering Laboratory/industry workshops on durability of 

PV polymeric materials have been used to identify key technical issues in the performance of 

polymeric materials in PV modules, and guided the development of a Statement of Work for 

a NIST/industry consortium on Service Life Prediction of Polymers in Photovoltaic Systems. 

CRADA packages incorporating this SOW have been signed by six industrial partners. 

These industry partners include suppliers of polymeric components for PV systems, cell and 

module manufacturers, and users. With a strong collaboration between NIST and industrial 

partners, a NIST/industry consortium on Service Life Prediction of PV Materials has been 

formally formed. As shown in this chapter, the SOW addresses the most important issues 

resulted from the workshop, presents a scientific-based technical plan including 

characterization, exposure and modeling, and creates a model to produce, implement and 

transfer measurement science to industrial stakeholders for developing reliability-based 

accelerated laboratory tests for predicting service life of polymers in PV systems. 
17

STATEMENT OF WORK

Title: Development and Validation of Reliability-based Accelerated 

Laboratory Tests for Predicting the Service Life of Polymers in Photovoltaic 

Systems 

Opportunities:

The success of PV technology will ultimately depend on a clear demonstration of the long-term 

reliability of PV products5

. Common photovoltaic performance warranties guarantee 80% of 

initial rated power for 25 to 30 years, but many PV products, including existing and newly 

developed module designs have limited field exposure histories. Reliability studies and 

accelerated lifetime testing are critically needed, and are also considered as one of the grand 

challenges facing the acceptance and implementation of advanced PV technologies6

. Existing 

test standards such as IEC 61215 and IEC 61646 are qualification tests which may be useful in 

screening for early failures, but are neither designed to predict service life nor ensure long-term 

reliability. This lack of effective accelerated laboratory tests for lifetime prediction of PV 

 5

 S. Kurtz, “Reliability Challenges for Solar Energy”, ATCAE Solar, 2009

6

 Reports of NIST Workshop: Grand Challenges for Advanced Photovoltaic Technologies and 

Measurements, May 11–12, 2010, Denver, Colorado. 

http://events.energetics.com/NISTGrandChallenges2010/downloads.html

Objectives: (1) Develop accelerated laboratory tests for predicting the service life of 

photovoltaic (PV) polymeric materials, components, and mini-modules using the NIST 

Simulated Photodegradation via High Energy Radiant Exposure (SPHERE); (2) Develop 

measurement science tools capable of discerning degradation mechanism(s) and failure 

mode(s) of PV polymeric materials, components, and mini-modules exposed to multiple 

simultaneous environmental stresses including UV radiation, temperature, and moisture; 

(3) Develop mathematical models for linking field and laboratory exposure results for PV 

polymeric materials and components using a reliability-based methodology.
18

materials, components, and modules significantly hinders innovation, development, assurance,

and acceptance of PV technology. 

Technical Approach:

Reliability-based accelerated laboratory tests will be developed on the basis of common failure 

modes observed in field-exposed PV modules. Degradation mechanisms and failure modes 

observed in the accelerated laboratory tests will be compared to those observed in field exposure. 

The NIST SPHERE will be used for accelerated aging tests. The exposure environments of the 

SPHERE offer high repeatability and reproducibility and, hence, provide effective and efficient 

screening tests for durability of PV materials, components, and mini-modules. The SPHERE 

additionally provides a fundamental understanding of degradation mechanisms and failure modes

of these systems under multiple, simultaneously-applied stressors, including different levels of 

UV irradiance, temperature, and moisture. Its optional capabilities include mechanical loading, 

electrical bias, and thermal cycling. In this work, metrologies for accelerated testing and 

degradation characterization will first be developed for PV polymeric materials recommended by 

the Consortium members. This data will form the basis for gaining a better understanding of the 

degradation mechanisms and failure modes at the PV system level, specifically, the degradation 

of individual PV components and mini-modules. All data generated during this exposure will be 

catalogued in a database and made available to individual consortium members. Both existing 

and emerging module designs will be considered, including thin film modules, flexible modules,

and crystalline silicon-based modules with different encapsulant designs. 

Non-destructive techniques, such as Raman spectroscopic imaging and fluorescence 

spectroscopy, will be developed for characterizing the degradation of polymeric materials and 

components while being utilized in PV mini-modules. The interfacial interactions and adhesion 

between different PV materials will be investigated for the multi-component laminates during 

accelerated laboratory exposure. Novel adhesion testing methods, such as the shaft-loaded blister 

test, will be developed for multi-component laminated coupons. Degradation mechanisms and 

failure modes observed in accelerated laboratory conditions will be compared to field data from 

modules containing similar PV materials and components. If the degradation mechanisms and 

failure modes are the same, linkages between laboratory and field exposure results will be made 

for these materials via reliability-based predictive models. 
19

To develop reliability-based accelerated laboratory tests for PV polymeric materials, 

components, and mini-modules, three major tasks will be undertaken: 

• Task 1: Characterize degradation mechanism and failure mode of PV polymeric materials 

and components exposed in well-controlled accelerated laboratory tests under multiple 

stressors, including UV, temperature, and moisture, singly and in combination.

PV material(s) or component(s) with extensive field history (recommended by Consortium 

members) will be selected as model polymeric system(s) for accelerated testing on the 

SPHERE. The model material(s) will be chosen from a variety of encapsulants, frontsheets, 

backsheets, or sealant materials, in either crystalline silicon based modules or thin film 

modules, or from lens materials in concentrator modules.

Figure 5. The NIST SPHERE.

The NIST SPHERE will be used for accelerated laboratory testing of the model PV 

material(s) or component(s). The SPHERE is an integrating sphere-based weathering 

device, providing uniform and intense source of collimated UV radiation on all sample 

locations. It is equipped with 32 exposure chambers, in which panel temperature, exposure 

relative humidity (RH), spectral UV intensities, and spectral UV wavelength can be 

independently and accurately controlled. It also offers the capability of mechanical loading 

and electrical bias. A factorial experiment will be designed to assess the effects of key 
20

environmental factors on the main degradation mechanisms of the model material(s) or 

component(s) during exposure to multiple stresses, including different levels of temperature, 

relative humidity, spectral UV intensity and wavelength, with optional mechanical loading 

and electrical bias if desired. 

Figure 6. Photos of FTIR spectrometer, Confocal microscope and atomic force microscope 

(from left to right) at NIST Engineering Laboratory to be used for PV polymeric materials

studies.

The degradation mechanism of the model system at different accelerated conditions will be 

investigated. Chemical, optical, mechanical, morphological and electrical properties of the 

model PV material(s) or component(s) will be characterized at multiple length scales during 

accelerated laboratory exposures on the SPHERE. Chemical degradation of the model 

material will be characterized using FTIR, in transmission, reflectance or photo-acoustic 

modes. Raman spectroscopy, which is sensitive to conjugated molecular structures, will be 

used to complement FTIR for characterization chemical changes. The optical properties of 

the material will be followed by UV-visible spectroscopy as function of exposure. Bulk 

mechanical properties will be measured by dynamic thermal mechanical analysis or quasistatic testing. Surface morphology, including roughness, pitting and cracking, will be 

examined at multiple scales using high resolution microscopic techniques such as laser 

scanning confocal microscopy, atomic force microscopy, and/or scanning electron 

microscopy. Changes in surface mechanical properties during exposure can be measured by 

nanoindentation. Electrical and fire hazard measurements will be performed (provided by 

UL). Degradation will be followed as a function of exposure time and UV dose, and 

degradation rates can be estimated in an accurate, precise and timely manner. 
21

The laboratory degradation results obtained under different exposure conditions will be 

compared to those observed in the field. In the event that the same degradation mechanism 

is observed, the acceleration factor of the laboratory exposure with respect to the outdoor 

environment will be estimated. If the degradation mechanism observed in the laboratory 

exposure has never been observed during the field exposure, the parameters for the 

accelerated tests will then be reconsidered.

• Task 2: Derive and validate mathematical models for linking laboratory and field exposure 

results and predicting service life of PV materials and components. 

The prediction of service life of PV materials and components will be based on the 

mathematical modeling of the accelerated test results and field data. In order to correlate 

accelerated SPHERE results to field performance, we will first determine if the degradation 

mechanisms of the studied material exposed in the laboratory accelerated test and field are 

the same. Correlations between the laboratory and field exposure will be assessed only for 

systems that exhibit the same degradation mechanism in the laboratory and field. Next, we 

will apply the NIST service life prediction methodology7,8 based on reliability theory and 

cumulative damage concepts, to link the relevant PV material property data from the 

SPHERE exposure to the same data collected in the field. In our previous coatings 

consortium, similar models have been successfully used to link the laboratory and outdoor 

exposures for a neat polymer coating, and correlations between time-to-failure in 

accelerated testing and time-to-failure in field were established. 

• Task 3: Define, design, and expose model mini-module(s) for use in developing accelerated 

laboratory testing metrology for PV modules. 

To extend the methodology developed in Task 2 for linking laboratory exposure results to 

field performance of a model PV material, model mini-module(s) that are similar in 

construction to modules with known field history will be defined and designed (with the 

 7

 Gu, et al., "Linking Accelerated Laboratory Test with Outdoor Performance for a Model Epoxy Coating 

System" in Service Life Prediction for Polymeric Materials: Global Perspectives, Eds: J. Martin, R. 

Ryntz, J. Chin, R. Dickie, Springer Press, 2009. 

8

 Meeker, et al., “A Statistical Model for Linking Field and Laboratory Exposure Results for a Model 

Coating,” Proceedings of 4th International Symposium on Service Life Prediction: Global Perspectives, 

Key Largo, Florida (2008).
22

help of Consortium partners) for use in accelerated SPHERE testing. A number of 

commercialized module designs will be considered, such as incumbent crystalline siliconbased modules, emerging thin-film modules, and PV modules with newly introduced 

encapsulants, frontsheets, or backsheets. To understand the interactions of different 

materials in the mini-modules during weathering, multi-component laminates based on 

proposed mini-module designs will be fabricated as well. Expansion of the NIST SPHERE 

capability will be carried out to enable the accelerated laboratory testing of mini-modules 

under different levels of UV irradiance, temperature, RH, and possibly with thermal cycling 

or electrical bias. The SPHERE exposure, measurement of relevant properties, and 

characterization of degradation mechanism(s) and failure mode(s) will be performed for 

multi-component laminates and mini-module(s). Non-destructive techniques, such as Raman 

spectroscopic imaging or fluorescence spectroscopy, for characterization of polymer 

degradation in mini-module(s) will be developed. Novel adhesion testing methods, such as 

the shaft-loaded blister test, will be developed to identify the location of the weakest 

interfacial adhesion in multilayer systems. The failure mode(s) of the mini-module(s) 

observed under different accelerated conditions will be examined, and compared to those 

observed in the field-exposed modules. If similar degradation mechanisms are observed 

between mini-module laboratory exposures and field exposures, recommendations for minimodule test protocols and standards will be developed in a future phase of the consortium.

Figure 6. Photos of dynamic thermal analyzer, Instron testing machine, and shaft-loaded 

blister test apparatus (from left to right) at NIST Engineering Laboratory to be used for PV 

polymeric materials studies. 
23

Milestones:

Year 1

• Identify, acquire, and prepare model PV polymeric material or component for accelerated 

laboratory testing using a reliability-based methodology. Selection of materials with 

extensive field history will be recommended by Consortium partners.

• Modify SPHERE technology for accelerated laboratory testing of PV polymeric materials 

and components under different levels of temperature, relative humidity, spectral UV 

intensities and wavelengths, and additional capabilities of mechanical loadings and 

electrical bias.

• Develop measurement tools to characterize changes of relevant material properties 

(chemical, physical, optical, mechanical, etc.) and investigate the degradation 

mechanism(s) in the model systems.

• Start exposure of the model PV polymeric system(s) on the SPHERE using a factorial 

experimental design including different levels of temperature, relative humidity, spectral 

UV intensities and wavelengths, with optional mechanical loading and electrical bias.

• Define and design model mini-module(s) similar in construction to real-world modules 

having extensive field history, with the recommendation and help of Consortium 

members. 

Similar multi-component laminates will be designed, prepared or acquired based on the 

same design of mini-module(s). 

Deliverables: Improved SPHERE technology for accelerated laboratory testing of PV 

polymeric materials with multiple, simultaneously-applied stresses; advanced measurement 

tools for degradation mechanism study of PV polymeric materials during accelerated 

laboratory tests.
24

Year 2

• Continue to expose the model PV polymeric system on the SPHERE using a factorial 

experimental design including different levels of temperature, relative humidity, spectral 

UV intensities and wavelengths, with optional mechanical loading and electrical bias.

• Systematically characterize the chemical, mechanical, optical and morphological 

properties for the exposed model material system, and assess the degradation 

mechanism(s) and failure mode(s) under different accelerated testing conditions. 

• Expand SPHERE capability for accelerated laboratory testing of mini-modules under 

conditions of UV intensities temperature, and RH, with optional thermal cycling. 

• Acquire model mini-module(s) defined in Year 1 with assistance of Consortium partners, 

and begin SPHERE exposure them under different accelerated conditions. Similar 

exposures will be conducted for multi-component laminates based on the same design of 

mini-module(s). 

• Develop non-destructive techniques (such as Raman spectroscopic imaging or 

fluorescence spectroscopy) to characterize degradation of polymers contained in minimodule(s). 

Deliverables: Advanced SPHERE technology for accelerated laboratory testing of PV minimodules with multiple, simultaneously-applied stresses; key parameters for accelerated 

laboratory testing and new knowledge on degradation mechanism(s) of PV materials at 

different exposure conditions; non-destructive techniques for characterization of polymer 

degradation in mini-modules. 
25

Year 3 

• Analyze laboratory exposure data and field history of the model PV polymeric 

material(s). Compare degradation mechanism(s) and failure mode(s) between field 

exposure and laboratory tests. 

• Develop and validate preliminary mathematical model (s) to quantitatively link field and 

laboratory exposure results for model polymeric material(s).

• Continue to expose the model mini-module(s) and characterize degradation during 

SPHERE exposure. Novel adhesion testing methods will be developed to identify the 

weakest interfacial regions in multilayer system. Long-term adhesion tests will be 

conducted on the multi-component laminates during similar accelerated exposure. 

• Collect data on degradation of model mini-module(s) properties during SPHERE 

exposure. Analyze laboratory failure mode(s) of the mini-module(s) based on the 

SPHERE exposure data, and compare the results with those observed in field modules. 

In the event that the same degradation mechanism is observed, acceleration factor of the 

laboratory exposure with respect to the outdoor weathering will be estimated. 

Deliverables: Preliminary experimentally-validated mathematical models for linking field 

and laboratory exposure results and service life prediction of polymeric material(s); novel 

adhesion testing methods for multi-component laminates; new knowledge on degradation 

mechanism(s) and failure mode(s) of mini-modules under different laboratory testing 

conditions; scientific basis and recommendations for developing standards and accelerated 

laboratory testing methods for PV polymeric materials.
26

4. PROPOSED ROADMAP FOR DEVELOPING 

MEASUREMENT SCIENCE FOR PREDICTING THE 

SERVICE LIFE OF POLYMERS USED IN PV SYSTEMS

As an outcome of the above workshops, a NIST/industry consortium on Service Life Prediction 

of Polymers in PV System has successfully been formed. The work planned in this consortium is

the primary contributor to the development of a roadmap for measurement science needed to 

predict service lives of PV polymeric materials, components, and modules. By engaging 

industrial stakeholders, NIST is continuously receiving inputs and feedbacks from consortium 

members and other PV industry stakeholders in developing program and experimental plans in 

PV reliability.

In this Chapter, the roadmap for developing measurement science for predicting the service life 

of polymers in PV Systems is presented. This roadmap is aligned with the Statement of Work of 

the NIST/Industry PV consortium, and provides a timeline for short-term goal (0-3 years), midterm goal (3-5 years) and long-term goal (5-8 years) to achieve the ultimate goal of predicting 

service life for polymers used in PV systems. The three detailed plans (a-c) are focused on the 

short-term goal, which are tailored to match the first phase research of the NIST/Industry PV 

consortium. This roadmap supports NIST Strategic Goal of Sustainable and Energy-Efficient 

Manufacturing, Materials, and Infrastructure through the program of Net-Zero Energy, HighPerformance Green Buildings. It can also be used by both the public and private sectors to guide 

policy, R&D, and other decision making relevant to important areas in PV materials and module 

reliability.
27

Proposed Roadmap- Measurement Science for Predicting the Service Life 

of Polymers Used in PV Systems

Scope

To develop and implement measurement science for predicting the lifetime of polymeric 

materials used in PV applications. 

Technical Components

Technical Approach

Measurement tools capable of discerning degradation 

mechanism(s) and failure mode(s)

Mathematical models for linking field and laboratory 

exposure results

For PV polymers, components, and mini-modules, 

to develop:

Accelerated laboratory test for predicting service lives 

using the NIST SPHERE

Test standards for accelerated aging and service life 

prediction of polymers

Proposed Technical Approach

Short-term 

(3 years)

Mid-term

(3-5 years)

Long-term

(5-8 years)

Start

Fundamental studies of degradation 

of PV polymers/ components; 

laboratory and outdoor exposure 

testing for PV polymeric materials

Develop and validate mathematical models for 

linking laboratory and field exposure results 

and predicting service life.

Design, define, and develop accelerated and 

outdoor exposure testing of standard mini 

module 

Develop draft standards for accelerated aging and 

service life prediction of polymers used in PV 

systems
28

4A. Development of Reliability-based Accelerated Laboratory Tests for PV 

Polymeric Materials and Components 

Objectives:

Challenges:

Potential Solutions:

(1) Develop accelerated laboratory tests for PV polymeric materials and 

components based on NIST SPHERE technology

(2) Develop measurement tools to investigate degradation mechanism(s) and failure 

mode(s) of PV polymeric materials and components exposed to multiple 

environmental stresses including UV, temperature and moisture

(3) Develop mathematical models for linking field and laboratory exposure results 

for PV polymeric materials and components using reliability-based 

methodology

Today’s performance warranty typically guarantees 80 % of initial rated power 

for 25 to 30 years, but most current PV products have field histories of only a few 

years or less. 

Existing test standards such as IEC 61215 or IEC 61646 are mainly qualification 

tests which are useful in screening for infant mortality failures, but are not 

designed to predict service life nor ensure long-term reliability. 

The lack of effective accelerated laboratory tests for lifetime prediction of PV 

materials, components and modules significantly hinders innovation, 

development, assurance and acceptance of PV technology. 

• Characterize degradation mechanisms and failure modes of PV 

polymers and components exposed to SPHERE-based accelerated 

laboratory tests under multiple stressors (UV, temperature, moisture, 

etc), singly and in combination.

• Derive and validate mathematical models for linking laboratory and 

field exposure results and predicting service life for polymeric 

materials and components.

• Design, define, and expose model mini-modules for use in 

developing accelerated laboratory testing metrology for PV modules. 

Relate accelerated laboratory results to field exposure for minimodules.
29

Milestones:

Start 1 year 2 years

Identify, acquire and prepare 

PV materials and component s 

for accelerated laboratory 

testing. 

Upgrade NIST SPHERE for factorial experiments 

(UV, T, RH, bias) for PV materials and 

components.

Develop measurement tools to characterize 

changes in relevant (chemical, physical, optical, 

mechanical, etc) and investigate the degradation 

mechanism.

3 years

Begin exposure of the model polymeric system 

on the SPHERE using a factorial experimental 

design (UV, T, RH, bias) .

Continue to expose, and characterize the 

degradation properties for polymeric 

materials and components using SPHERE. 

Systematically characterize the chemical, mechanical, 

optical , electrical, and morphological properties for the 

exposed model system, and assess the degradation 

mechanism

Expand SPHERE capability for accelerated 

laboratory testing of standard mini-modules under 

conditions of UV irradiance, temperature, RH, and 

optional mechanical loading and electrical bias.

Define and design a standard mini-module similar 

in construction to modules with extensive field 

history, with the recommendation and the help of 

Consortium members. 

Develop mathematical models to link field and 

laboratory exposure results for the model system using 

reliability-based methodology. 
30

4B. Development of Long-term Adhesion Tests for PV Module Components

Objectives:

Challenges:

Potential Solutions:

(1) Develop test methods to characterize interfacial adhesion between module 

components 

(2) Assess long-term adhesion as a function of laboratory accelerated exposure 

(UV, temperature, relative humidity) 

(3) Correlate material properties with adhesion degradation and interfacial failure 

of the module components

Delamination, resulting from the loss of adhesion between the laminated module 

components, is a common failure mode observed in field-tested PV modules. 

Delamination provides a pathway for moisture ingress which could further 

degrade module performance and create safety concerns for modules.

This problem is particularly challenging for developing long-term reliable 

flexible thin-film technology because of the high moisture ingress of flexible 

polymer films. 

The relationship between the material degradation and adhesion loss is not clear; 

studies are lacking. 

• Develop test methods to characterize the interfacial adhesion

between different module components

• Measure long-term adhesion as a function of laboratory accelerated 

exposure (UV, temperature, RH) and outdoor exposure 

• Identify the cause of adhesion degradation and correlate to material 

degradation
31

Milestones:

Start 1 year 2 years

Design, prepare or acquire 

laminated test specimens for 

adhesion tests of interfaces of 

different module components. 

Develop test methods to characterize the interfacial adhesion 

between different module components based on peel, lap shear 

strength and blister tests. In-situ adhesion testing under elevated T 

and RH are explored.

Modify NIST SPHERE for exposure of the 

laminated module components with multistresses including UV, temperature, and RH.

3 years

Expose specimens on the SPHERE and investigate the effects of key 

environmental factors on long-term adhesion of the laminated module 

components. 

Explore the measurements of moisture absorption, water vapor 

transport rate and moisture migration at interface of module 

components.

Measure the chemical and physical properties of the fractured surfaces 

after adhesion tests using microscopic and spectroscopic techniques. 

Identify failure modes.

Examine the relationship between material 

properties and adhesion degradation in 

studied module components. 

Correlate adhesion failure modes observed 

in accelerated laboratory testing to those 

observed in the field for module 

components.
32

4C. Failure Mode Analysis and Non-destructive Polymeric Material 

Characterizations for PV Modules

Objectives:

Challenges:

Potential Solutions:

(1) Develop techniques for characterizing chemical and optical properties of 

polymer components in degraded/failed PV modules from laboratory and field 

exposures

(2) Assess contribution of polymer degradation to primary failure modes of PV 

modules

Common failure modes of PV modules, such as corrosion, delamination, 

encapsulant discoloration, etc, could be due to the aging of polymeric components.

Current criteria used to detect failures mainly depend on electric property loss in 

maximum power and insulation resistance, or the presence of visible visual defects. 

It is difficult to isolate, investigate and identify specific causes for module failures

even when the failures have been detected. 

Techniques, especially non-destructive ones, for characterizing the polymer 

materials and components in PV modules are lacking.

• Develop non-destructive characterization techniques for polymeric 

materials/components in degraded/failed PV modules from laboratory 

and field exposures

• Assess contribution of polymer degradation to primary failure modes 

observed in PV modules
33

Milestones:

Start 1 year 2 years

Acquire degraded/failed field 

PV modules with help from 

industry partners. 

Carry out preliminary Raman and 

fluoresce microscopic mapping of 

degraded PV polymeric materials 

and components.

Apply Raman and fluoresce 

microscopic mapping techniques to 

characterize polymeric 

materials/components in unexposed PV 

cells and modules. 

3 years

Expose PV cells or modules on the SPHERE

Perform thermal IR imaging and electroluminescence measurements on the 

field- or laboratory-exposed PV modules. Combined the data with Raman and 

fluoresce data

Apply Raman and fluoresce microscopic mapping to 

characterize polymeric materials/components in fieldexposed and accelerated laboratory-exposed PV modules.

Assess contribution of material property 

and polymer degradation to primary 

failure mode of PV modules
34

APPENDIX A: LIST OF WORKSHOP ATTENDEES

NAME AFFILIATION

Alex Bradley DuPont

Nancy Phillips 3M

Aaron Foster NIST

Allen Zielnik Atlas-MTS

Andy Goodwin Dow Corning

Chris White NIST

David Avison Madico

Debbie Stanley NIST

Elizabeth Orlowski Dow Corning

Eric Byrd NIST

Greg O’Brien Arkema

Hsinjin Edwin Yang UL

Jason Eckstein, Lux Research

Jason Reese Dow Chemical

Jeffrey Prate Madico

Jerry Eng Cytec

Joannie Chin NIST

Jon Martin NIST

Ken Milam Daikin America

Kurt Scott Atlas-MTS

Leobardo Lopez DOW

Lipiin Sung NIST

Marina Temchenko Madico

Nick Shephard Dow Corning

Rafal Mickiewicz Fraunhofer

Robert Pleydon Saint-Gobin

Roger French Case Western Reserve University

Ron Hendershot Daikin America

Sari-Beth Samuels Cytec

Shyam Sunder NIST

Stephanie Watson NIST

Tinh Nguyen NIST

Tom Chapin UL

Xiaohong Gu NIST

Zhengjue (Jack) Zhang First Solar
35

APPENDIX B: WORKSHOP AGENDA
36