ExceptionalEventsRuleRevisionsNoticeofProposedRulemakingandDraftWildfire/OzoneGuidanceNoticeofAvailabilityUS EPAOffice of Air Quality Planning and StandardsNovember 2015Disclaimer:PositionsandviewsexpressedhererepresentproposedrulecontentanddraftEPAguidanceOverview•KeyPoints•BackgroundonExceptionalEventsRuleandGuidance•ExceptionalEventsSchedulein2015OzoneNAAQS•AnticipatedScheduleforRuleandGuidance•ExceptionalEventsRuleRevisions•Wildfire/OzoneExceptionalEventsImplementationGuidance•CommunicationandOutreach•AvailableResources•ClarifyingQuestions2KeyPoints•EPAinitiatedtheExceptionalEventsRulerevisionsandguidancedevelopmentprocesstoaddresscertainsubstantiveissuesraisedbystate,localandtribalco‐regulatorsandotherstakeholderssincepromulgationoftheruleandtoincreasetheadministrativeefficiencyoftheExceptionalEventsRulecriteriaandprocess.•TherulerevisionsandguidanceareintendedtomakethedemonstrationsmoremanageablefortheairagencyseekingtoexcludedataandfortheEPAofficereviewingandactingonthesedemonstrations.•EPAinitiatedtherulemakingefforttoaddressconcernsandrequestsforadditionalflexibilityraisedbystakeholdersthatcouldnotbeachievedthroughtheInterimExceptionalEventsImplementationGuidanceissuedin2013.•Theexceptionaleventsimprovementseffortsoverthepastseveralyearshavebeencollaborativeinvolvingmultiplepublicwebinars,listeningsessions,meetingpresentationsandbestpracticesdiscussions.•TheExceptionalEventsRulerevisionsandrelatedguidancearekeymechanismsinimplementingthe2015revisedOzoneNAAQS.3Background•OriginoftheExceptionalEventsRule•PromulgatedonMarch22,2007(72FR13560)•Requiredbystatute(Section319oftheCleanAirAct)•ReplacedpreviousEPApolicies/procedures•AppliestoallcriteriapollutantsandNAAQSandincludesgeneralscheduleforidentifyingdataandsubmittingdemonstrations•ElementsoftheExceptionalEventsRule•Establishesproceduresandcriteriaforidentifying,evaluating,interpreting,andusingairqualitymonitoringdataaffectedbyexceptionalevents•Providesamechanismbywhichairqualitydatacanbeexcludedfromregulatorydecisionsandactions•Affectsdesignvaluecalculations,NAAQSdesignationdecisions,attainmentdeterminations,andState/TribalImplementationPlandevelopment4Background•CriteriaToBeanExceptionalEvent(2007Rule)•Theeventaffectsairquality•Theeventisnotreasonablycontrollableorpreventable•Theeventiscausedbyhumanactivitythatisunlikelytorecuratthatlocationorisanaturalevent•Thereisaclearcausalrelationshipbetweentheeventandthemonitoredconcentration•Theeventisassociatedwithameasuredconcentrationinexcessofnormalhistoricalfluctuations•Therewouldhavebeennoexceedanceorviolationbutfortheevent•ExamplesofExceptionalEvents•HighWindDustEvents•WildfireEvents•VolcanicandSeismicActivities5Background•ExceptionalEventsRuleCurrentProcess•Airagencyidentifiespotentialevent‐relatedexceedance•AiragencyflagsdatainAirQualitySystem(AQS)andprovidesEPAwithinitialeventdescription•Airagencypreparesdemonstrationpackageandprovidespublicnoticeandopportunitytocomment•Airagencysubmitsdemonstrationpackagetosupportdataexclusion•EPAreviewssubmittalandeitherapprovesordisapprovestheexceptionaleventclaim•IfEPAagreesthateventis“exceptional,”thendataareexcluded•IfEPAdoesnotagreewithairagencyclaim,thendataremainandareusedinregulatorydeterminations•ImplementationhasbeenChallenging•Exceptionaleventsareuniqueandvaried•Difficulttoprovideguidancethatisbothconcreteandgenerallyapplicable•Difficulttopre‐determinehowmuchevidence/technicalanalysisfordemonstrationsisenough•Finalruletextandpreambleleftroomforinterpretation6Background•March2007 – ExceptionalEventsRulepromulgated•May2013‐EPAfinalizedinterimexceptionaleventsimplementationguidance•MemorandumtoRegionalAirDivisionDirectorswith2attachments•Attachment1‐FrequentlyAskedQuestionsdocument•Attachment2‐HighWindsGuidancedocument•May2013 – EPAannouncedintenttorevisetheExceptionalEventsRuleanddevelopwildfire/ozoneimplementationguidance•AugustthruNovember2013 – Stakeholderoutreachandlisteningsessionsrelatedtorulerevisions•November2014 – OzoneNAAQSproposalcontainingflagginganddemonstrationsubmissionschedulefordatainfluencedbyexceptionalevents•October2015– FinalOzoneNAAQScontainingexceptionaleventssubmissionschedule(promulgatedasproposed)7ExceptionalEventsSchedulein2015OzoneNAAQS•DevelopedtoensurethatEPAhasadequatetimetoassessanyexceptionaleventsdemonstrationsthatwouldsubstantivelyaffectdesignationsunderthe2015revisedOzoneNAAQS(e.g.,nonattainmentvs.attainment,Marginalvs.Moderate).Relevantmonitoringdatayears:•2014‐2016forozonedesignationspromulgatedinOctober2017undertheCAA’s2‐yeardesignationschedule•2017data‐onlyifdesignationsarecompletedundera3‐yearschedule•SchedulefollowspastpracticeandsplitstheavailabletimeduringthedesignationsprocessbetweenthestatesandEPA.•Scheduleestablishesdemonstrationsubmissiondeadlinesasfollows:•October1,2016(for2013‐2015data)•May31,2017(for2016data)•Demonstrationsubmissionrulelanguageinthe2015OzoneNAAQSspecifiesageneric“deltaschedule”thatcouldbeappliedtoanyfutureNAAQSrevision.•TheproposedExceptionalEventsRulerevisionsretainthesame“deltaschedule”thatwepromulgatedinthe2015OzoneNAAQS.8AnticipatedScheduleforRuleandGuidance•ExceptionalEventsRulerevisionsandguidancedevelopment•November10,2015 – signNoticeofProposedRulemakingforrulerevisionsandNoticeofAvailabilityfordraftguidance•November2015 – publicationinFederalRegister•December8,2015 – publichearinginPhoenix,Arizona(10am– 6pm,ArizonaDepartmentofEnvironmentalQualityoffice)•January19,2016 – closeofcommentperiod•August2016 – signfinalruleandissuefinalguidancedocuments•Relationshiptootheractions•Scheduleallowsairagenciesapproximately2monthstoconsiderthefinalrulerevisionsandfinalguidancepriortosubmittingtheirozonedesignationrecommendationsforthe2015OzoneNAAQS(by10/1/2016,using2013‐2015data).9ProposedExceptionalEventsRuleRevisions•ClarifythetypesofdeterminationsandactionstowhichtheauthorizingstatutoryauthorityinCAAsection319(b)applies•Designations•Classifications•Attainmentdeterminations•Attainmentdateextensions•FindingsofSIPinadequacyleadingtoSIPcall•ReturntothecorestatutoryelementsandimplicitconceptsofCAAsection319(b)•Theeventaffectedairqualityinsuchawaythatthereexistsaclearcausalrelationshipbetweenthespecificeventandthemonitoredexceedanceorviolation(assupportedbyacomparisonoftheoftheclaimedevent‐influencedconcentration(s)toconcentrationsatthesamemonitoringsiteatothertimes)•Theeventwasnotreasonablycontrollableorpreventable•Theeventwasahumanactivitythatisunlikelytorecurataparticularlocationorwasanaturalevent10ProposedExceptionalEventsRuleRevisions•Clarify“notreasonablycontrollableorpreventable”criteria•Relyonattainment/maintenanceSIPsapprovedwithin5yearsofdemonstrationsubmittal•Indicatethatairagenciesgenerallyhavenoobligationtospecificallyaddresscontrolsforemissionsoriginatingoutsidetheirjurisdictional(i.e.,state/tribal/international)border(s)•“Controllable”and“preventable”areseparatetests•Clarifyhighwindelementscurrentlyaddressedinguidance•Includeprovisionsforthehighwindthreshold•Includeprovisionsfor“extreme”events•Codifyrequirementsforthecontentandorganizationofexceptionaleventssubmittals•MakeinitialnotificationbythestatetotheEPAofapotentialexceptionaleventarequired(butwaivable)preliminarystepbeforesubmittingademonstration(basedonbestpractices)•Includenarrativeconceptualmodel•Addresscorestatutoryelements•Includedocumentationthatpubliccommentprocesswasconducted•Remove“generalschedule”deadlinesfordataflagginganddemonstrationsubmittal11ProposedExceptionalEventsRuleRevisions•Newfire‐relatedrulelanguageandpreambletext•Clarifythatallwildfiresonwildlandarenaturalevents•Clarifythatprescribedfireisahuman‐causedeventeligiblefortreatmentasanexceptionaleventandproposeastreamlinedpathtoshowhowairagenciescansatisfyrulecriteria•Relyonland/resourcemanagementplans(forfrequencyofrecurrenceandfor“notreasonablypreventable”)•IdentifyrecommendedcomponentsofSmokeManagementProgramsandBasicSmokeManagementPractices•Definefire‐relatedtermsinregulatorylanguage•Otherprovisions•Addresswhomaysubmitademonstration•Eventaggregation•Mitigation12DraftWildfire/OzoneExceptionalEventsImplementationGuidance13•Fulldocumentname:DraftGuidanceonthePreparationofExceptionalEventsDemonstrationsforWildfireEventsthatMayInfluenceOzoneConcentrations•Whatdoesthedraftguidancedo?•Incorporatesandappliestheproposedrulerevisionstowildfire/ozoneevents•Providesexampleanalyses,conclusionstatements,andtechnicaltoolsthatairagenciescanusetoprovideevidencethatthewildfireeventinfluencedthemonitoredozoneconcentration•Invitescommentontheappropriatenessofeitherexpandingthewildfire/ozoneguidance,ordevelopingaseparateguidancedocument,tospecificallyaddressdemonstrationcomponentsforprescribedfiresDraftWildfire/OzoneExceptionalEventsImplementationGuidance14•Whatdoesthedraftguidancedo?•Identifiesfireandmonitor‐basedcharacteristicsthatwouldallowforastreamlineddemonstrationpackage usingathree‐tieredapproach•Tier1demonstrations•Simplestandleastresourceintensive•ApplywhenfireeventscauseclearO3impactsinareasorduringtimesofyearthattypicallyexperiencelowerO3concentrations•Usetimeseriesplotandevidenceoftransporttothemonitor•Tier2demonstrations•ApplywhentheimpactsofthefireonO3levelsarelessclearandwouldrequiremoreevidencethanTier1demonstrations•UseQ/D(emissions/distance)screeningcriterion,threshold‐basedmonitoredconcentrationsandevidenceoftransporttoandinfluenceatthemonitor•Tier3demonstrations•ApplywhentherelationshipbetweenthesubjectfiresandinfluencedO3concentrationsismorecomplicated•Buildupontiers1and2•AppropriatetiertobedeterminedbyaffectedairagencyandreviewingEPAregionalofficeduringproposed“InitialNotification”processProposedExceptionalEventsRuleRevisionsandDraftGuidance– RequestsforComment•ProposedExceptionalEventsRuleRevisions•Incorporatingelementsofguidanceinrulerevisions•ClarificationstothescopeofAdministratordeterminationsincludedwithintheExceptionalEventsRule•Componentsandapproachesassociatedwith“notreasonablycontrollable”and“notreasonablypreventable”•Proposedapproachtodefiningrecurrenceataparticularlocation•Approachesthatcouldeffectivelycommunicateexpectationsregardingreasonablecontrols•Characterizing“extreme”events•Incorporatingsmokemanagementprogramelementsinruletextversusguidance•AppropriatenessofFederalLandManagersandotherfederalagenciessubmittingdemonstrationsdirectlytoEPA•ProposedchangestotheAirQualitySystemfordataflagging•Approachesformitigation,includingwhetherchangesareneeded,plancomponentsandimplementation•DraftWildfire/OzoneGuidance•Approachfortiering•Keyfactors•Appropriatenessofeitherexpandingthewildfire/ozoneguidanceordevelopingaseparateguidancedocument,tospecificallyaddressdemonstrationcomponentsforprescribedfires15CommunicationandOutreach16•Publicoutreachwebinarfollowingproposal•Contentoftheproposedrulerevisions•Contentofdraftguidance•Publichearing•December8,2015from10am– 6pm•InPhoenix,ArizonaatArizonaDepartmentofEnvironmentalQualityoffices•DetailsandregistrationinformationprovidedinFederalRegisterandonExceptionalEventswebsite•Implementationworkshop(s)forstates,tribes,andotheraffectedstakeholdersfollowingrulepromulgationandreleaseoffinalguidance•Continueddevelopmentofexceptionaleventstools(e.g.,website,templates)•RevisionstoexistingInterimExceptionalEventsImplementationGuidancefollowingpromulgationAvailableResources17•Docketfortherulerevisions:EPA‐HQ‐OAR‐2013‐0576athttp://www.regulations.gov•Docketforthedraftwildfireguidance:EPA‐HQ‐OAR‐2015‐0229athttp://www.regulations.gov•ExceptionalEventsWebsiteathttp://www2.epa.gov/air‐quality‐analysis/treatment‐data‐influenced‐exceptional‐events•EPARegionalOfficestaffand/orEPAOfficeofAirQualityPlanningandStandardsstaffClarifyingQuestions18