Appendix H

Oil and Gas 

Reasonably Foreseeable Development Scenario

October 2013 Nevada and Northeastern California Greater Sage-Grouse Draft LUPA/EIS H-1

APPENDIX H

OIL AND GAS REASONABLY FORESEEABLE 

DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO

This reasonably foreseeable development (RFD) scenario serves as a basis for 

analyzing environmental impacts resulting from future leasing and development 

of federal oil and gas resources within the decision area over the next 20 years. 

A variety of factors (e.g., economic, social, and political) are beyond the control 

of the BLM and Forest Service and will influence the demand for oil and gas 

resources. Therefore, the RFD scenario is a best professional estimate of what 

may occur if public lands are leased. It is not intended to be a “maximumdevelopment” scenario; however, it is biased towards the higher end of 

expected development and shows where the potential development might 

occur. If future development eventually exceeds RFD predictions, then the BLM 

and Forest Service will assess the impacts to the resources under the context of 

the analysis provided in this Programmatic EIS or specific LUPs and determine if 

additional analysis is warranted.

The decision area produces approximately 367,000 barrels per day. Based on 

projects that have been or are expected to be approved, it is estimated that an 

additional 50,000 barrels per day will be produced by 2020. Based on 

production data within the planning area, production wells produce on average 

5,169 barrels per day per well. Successful drilling of production wells can be 

estimated at 20 percent because of new completion technologies (Snow 2013;

Davis 2011). If a total of 100 wells were to be drilled, 20 would be successful at 

production. 

LOCATION OF DEVELOPMENT 

Development would be distributed across the area shown by the oil and gas

potential map. The majority of the resources are located within the Eastern 

portion of the decision area with high potential areas occurring within the Battle 

Mountain, Elko, and Ely BLM districts around Railroad and Pine Valleys. 
Appendix H. Oil and Gas Reasonably Foreseeable Development Scenario

H-2 Nevada and Northeastern California Greater Sage-Grouse Draft LUPA/EIS October 2013

Typical Phases in Oil and Gas Development

This RFD for oil and gas resource use involves four sequential phases: (1)

exploration, (2) drilling, (3) utilization, and (4) reclamation and abandonment. 

The success or failure of each phase affects the implementation of subsequent 

phases, and, therefore, subsequent environmental impacts. The general 

assumptions outlined in the following four phases serve to establish RFD

scenarios for analyzing future environmental impacts that may result from

development following BLM issuance of leases for oil and gas resources within

the identified area of oil and gas potential. It should be noted that the RFD

scenario permits a general evaluation of the types of impacts that may occur but

cannot accurately predict the magnitude and extent of these impacts. This is due

in part to the uncertainty about the timing, location, distribution of the oil and 

gas resources, and the likely types of development.

Table H-1, Disturbance from Reasonably Foreseeable Development, provides 

the estimated acreages of land disturbance for each phase in oil and gas 

development for an oil and gas field. The actual area of disturbance varies 

greatly depending upon site conditions and the type and size of field being 

constructed; therefore, a range is provided. Acreages are not provided for the 

Reclamation and Abandonment phase since this phase involves the return of 

previously disturbed lands to their existing conditions.

Table H-1

Disturbance from Reasonably Foreseeable Development

Activity Disturbance 

(acres)

Reclamation

(acres)

Total Disturbance at the End 

of the RFD Period (acres)

Seismic Surveys 606 606 0

Roads 480 384 96

Drilling 160 128 32

Total 1246 1118 128

The total potential amount of area disturbed under the utilization phase includes

development activities. Much of the land would be reclaimed after the initial

exploration, drilling, and construction; therefore, the actual amount of land

occupied during operation, would be less than the figure outlined in the 

development section. A typical development generally requires several leases or 

the use of private or other adjacent lands. The details of each phase of 

development are described below.
Appendix H. Oil and Gas Reasonably Foreseeable Development Scenario

October 2013 Nevada and Northeastern California Greater Sage-Grouse Draft LUPA/EIS H-3

ASSUMPTIONS FOR REASONABLY FORESEEABLE DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO – OIL AND GAS

Assumptions for Exploration

1. Exploration and development will occur over 20 years. 

2. There would be approximately 25 miles of seismic line at a width of 10 feet 

surveyed per year for an anticipated overall total of 606 acres of disturbance 

over the life of the RFD. Each year, 100 percent of the disturbance would 

be reclaimed. Other geophysical surveys would be completed; however, the 

surveys would be minimal with little to no surface disturbance. 

3. The majority of the decision area is considered to be a high risk (wild cat) 

exploration region. This means that there is low to moderate potential for 

oil and gas discoveries. 

4. Approximately 450 wells have been drilled within the decision area to date, 

and 71 of those wells are producing. This is a success rate of approximately 

16 percent. On average two wells per year are drilled, which amounts to 40 

wells over the life of the RFD. It is projected that the success rate would 

increase to 20 percent because of new completion technologies. 

Approximately eight out of the 40 wells drilled would be potentially viable 

for production. 

5. An estimated 32 wells would be reclaimed over the 20 year timespan. 

6. The majority of successful wells drilled are located in the high potential 

regions within the eastern portion of the planning area. From this we can 

assume the continued success of these locations. 

7. The average size for a well pad is 4 acres. Forty new wells over the next 20 

years would then amount to 160 acres of disturbance for new wells drilled. 

Since it is projected that eight wells would be producing, the amount 

remaining un-reclaimed would be 32 acres.

8. The average access road would be 20 feet wide and five miles long (average 

width accounting for turnouts) the total disturbance due to road 

construction would then be approximately:

• 5 miles by 5,280 feet/mile by 20 feet = 528,000 square feet.

• 528,000 feet by 1 acre/43560 feet = approximately 12 acres per 

successful well.

• 12 acres by 8 (successful wells) = 96 acres remaining un-reclaimed 

over the course of 20 years. Over the 20 year period, the total 

amount of disturbed area due to access roads is expected to be no 

more than 480 acres, with 384 acres being reclaimed. 
Appendix H. Oil and Gas Reasonably Foreseeable Development Scenario

H-4 Nevada and Northeastern California Greater Sage-Grouse Draft LUPA/EIS October 2013

Based on the above assumptions, disturbance from geophysical surveys are 

estimated at 606 acres, access roads are estimated at 480 acres, well pads are 

estimated at 160 acres for a total surface disturbance of approximately 1,246 

acres. The surface disturbance from oil and gas exploration well pads and access 

roads combined is estimated to be 640 acres, of which 512 acres for roads and 

well pads of unsuccessful wells would be reclaimed within the 20 year period, 

leaving a total of approximately 128 acres of surface disturbance. 

Assumptions for Production

We have estimated that over the next 20 years 8 new producing wells will be 

discovered. 

The following assumptions are based on estimated mineral potential, ground 

conditions within the decision area, road availability, and existing development 

for the decision area. 

1. There would be 40 wells drilled within the RFD; 32 of those wells would be 

reclaimed, leaving a total of 8 successful production wells totaling 32 acres 

of disturbance due to well pads. 

2. A tank battery would be placed on the existing drill pad of the producing 

well and no additional surface disturbance would be required.

3. The access roads to the unsuccessful wells total 384 acres. This acreage 

would be reclaimed.

4. Based on the above assumption, the total surface disturbance from the 8 

production well pads is estimated at 32 acres, the surface disturbance from 

the construction of roads is estimated to be approximately 96 acres. Surface 

disturbance from oil and gas production over the 20 year period could total 

a maximum of approximately 128 acres after reclamation. 

The above assumptions for both exploration and production are summarized 

below in Table H-2, Reasonably Foreseeable Disturbance from Exploration and

Production. 

Table H-2

Reasonably Foreseeable Disturbance from Exploration and Production

Activity Disturbance 

(acres)

Reclamation

(acres)

Total Disturbance at the end 

of the RFD period (acres)

Seismic Surveys 606 606 0

Roads 480 384 96

Drilling 160 128 32

Total 1246 1118 128
Appendix H. Oil and Gas Reasonably Foreseeable Development Scenario

October 2013 Nevada and Northeastern California Greater Sage-Grouse Draft LUPA/EIS H-5

Assumptions for Reasonably Foreseeable Development Scenario (Noble –

Elko) 

1. Exploration and development will occur over 20 years.

2. The majority of the decision area is considered to be a high risk (wild cat) 

exploration region. This means that there is low to moderate potential for 

oil and gas discoveries. 

3. Extensive seismic surveys have been completed within this portion of the 

planning area therefore additional seismic survey disturbance would be 

minimal. 

4. Although no wells have been drilled within this portion of the decision area 

it is anticipated that Noble would drill 60 wells within the decision area and 

that 33 of those wells would be productive. This is a success rate of 

approximately 55 percent. 

5. Multi-well directional and horizontal pads would be implemented; therefore 

four wells would be drilled on each pad. The average size of a well pad is 

four acres. This would result in a total of 15 pads being required to drill a 

total of 60 wells, amounting to 60 acres of disturbance.

6. Wells within this portion of the decision area would be drilled using new 

completion technologies. These technologies could include hydraulic 

fracturing and horizontal drilling.

7. The majority of successful wells drilled are located in the moderate 

potential regions within the northeastern portion (Elko District) of the 

decision area. 

8. The average access road would be 20 feet wide and five miles long (average

width accounting for turnouts) the total disturbance due to road 

construction would then be: 

• 5 miles by 5,280 feet/mile by 20 feet by 1 acre/43,560 square feet = 

approximately 12 acres.

• 12 acres by 0.75 well pads per year = approximately 9 acres/year. 

Over the course of 20 years, this amounts to an expected maximum 

of approximately 180 acres. 

The above assumptions for Noble – Elko are summarized below in Table H-3,

Disturbance from Reasonably Foreseeable Development in Noble – Elko.
Appendix H. Oil and Gas Reasonably Foreseeable Development Scenario

H-6 Nevada and Northeastern California Greater Sage-Grouse Draft LUPA/EIS October 2013

Table H-3

Disturbance from Reasonably Foreseeable 

Development in Noble – Elko

Activity Disturbance (acres)

Roads 180

Drilling 60

Total 240