Dynamic Diversity:

 Projected Changes in U.S.

Race and Ethnic Composition

 1995 to 2050

December 1999
ii

DYNAMIC DIVERSITY:

PROJECTED CHANGES IN U.S. RACE AND ETHNIC COMPOSITION

1995 TO 2050

The Minority Business Development Agency (MBDA), U.S. Department of

Commerce, commissioned the Census Bureau to prepare this in-depth report on

changes in U.S. race and ethnic composition from 1995 to 2050. It is one of a series

of products that MBDA will be developing on The Emerging Minority Marketplace to

organize and disseminate information for and about minority business.

Acknowledgements

This report was prepared in the U.S. Census Bureau Population Division by

Wan He under the direction of Frank Hobbs, Chief, Special Projects Staff. The

cover was designed by J. Alexander Varson. Shafali Srivastava and Nicole

Stoops provided graphic assistance. The national projections data were derived

from U.S. Census Bureau, 1996, Population Projections of the United States by Age,

Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050, by Jennifer Cheeseman Day, Current

Population Reports, P25-1130. The state projections data were derived from U.S.

Census Bureau, 1996, Population Projections for States by Age, Sex, Race, and

Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025, by Paul R. Campbell, Population Division, PPL-47.

For further information and additional copies, contact:

Richard L. Stevens

Chief, Office of Market Access

Room 5093

Minority Business Development Agency

U.S. Department of Commerce

Washington, DC 20230

202-482-4671

rstevens@mbda.gov

For more detailed information, visit MBDA’s Internet website at:

www.mbda.gov
iii

Contents

Highlights ................................................................................................................................... 1

I. Introduction........................................................................................................................ 3

II. National Population Projections ............................................................................... 4

III. State Population Projections...................................................................................... 19

Total Population................................................................................................................ 19

Non-Hispanic White (Non-Minority) Population................................................................ 25

Minority Population........................................................................................................... 29

Black Population............................................................................................................... 33

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut Population .............................................................. 37

Asian and Pacific Islander Population.............................................................................. 40

Hispanic Population.......................................................................................................... 42

Cross-Group Comparison ................................................................................................ 46

IV. Methodology and Accuracy of Projections........................................................... 52

Text Tables

2-1. Projections of the Population of the United States by Race and Hispanic Origin:

1995 to 2050 ......................................................................................................... 4

2-2. Dependency Ratios by Race and Ethnic Group: 1995 to 2050 ............................ 18

3-1. Top 10 States in Population Size and Percent of Total Population:

1995 and 2025 ...................................................................................................... 22

3-2. States Where the Black Population Ranks as the Most Populous

Minority Group: 1995 and 2025 ............................................................................ 35

3-3. Top and Bottom States for Percent Race/Ethnic Population of Total

State Population: 1995 and 2025.......................................................................... 48

3-4. Top States for Percent Aged 65 and Over of Total State Population

and Increase by Race and Ethnic Group: 1995 and 2025.................................... 50

3-5. Top States for Percent Aged 0-14 of Total State Population

and Increase by Race and Ethnic Group: 1995 and 2025.................................... 51

Figures

2-1. Total U.S. Population by Minority/Non-Minority: 1995 to 2050............................. 5

2-2. Percent Increase in Population: 1995 to 2050...................................................... 6

2-3. Black and Hispanic Population: 1995 to 2050 ...................................................... 7

2-4. Percent Distribution of U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin:

1995 and 2050 ...................................................................................................... 8

2-5. Average Annual Rate of Growth of U.S. Total Population: 1995 to 2050............. 9

2-6. Average Annual Rate of Growth by Race/Ethnic Group: 1995 to 2050................ 10

2-7. Minority and Non-Minority Population: 1995 to 2050............................................ 12

2-8. Difference Between Minority and Non-Minority Populations by Age:

2030 and 2050 ...................................................................................................... 13

2-9. Median Age of the Total U.S. Population: 1995 to 2050....................................... 14

2-10. Median Age by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050..................................... 15

2-11. Percent of Population Aged 0-14 and 65+ for the Non-Hispanic White

Population: 1995 to 2050 ...................................................................................... 16

2-12. Percent of Population Aged 0-14 and 65+ for Race/Ethnic Minority

Groups: 1995 to 2050 ........................................................................................... 17

3-1. Percent Distribution of the Total Population by Region: 1995 and 2025.............. 19
iv

3-2. States Contributing the Most to Regional Population Growth: 1995 to 2025 ....... 21

3-3. State Population Growth by Population Size: 1995 to 2025................................. 23

3-4. State Population Growth by Percent Increase: 1995 to 2025............................... 23

3-5. Age Distribution by Region: 1995 and 2025 ......................................................... 24

3-6. Change in Percent Non-Hispanic White Population of Total State

Population: 1995 to 2025 ...................................................................................... 26

3-7. Percent Non-Hispanic White of Regional Population: 1995 and 2025 ................. 27

3-8. States with Declining Non-Hispanic White Population: 1995 to 2025 .................. 28

3-9. Top 10 States for Increase of Non-Hispanic White Population: 1995 to 2025 ..... 28

3-10. Percent Minority of Total State Population: 1995 and 2025 ................................. 30

3-11. States Ranked by Percent Minority: 2025............................................................. 31

3-12. Percent Distribution of Minority Population by Region: 1995 and 2025 ............... 32

3-13. Regional Distribution of Black Population: 1995................................................... 33

3-14. Top States for Black Population Increase: 1995 to 2025...................................... 34

3-15. Percent Black of Total State Population: 2025 ..................................................... 36

3-16. Percent Distribution of American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut Population

by Region: 1995.................................................................................................... 37

3-17. States with Largest Share of Total American Indian, Eskimo, and

Aleut Population: 1995 and 2025.......................................................................... 38

3-18. Percent American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut of Total State Population: 2025..... 39

3-19. Percent Distribution of Asian and Pacific Islander Population by Region

and State: 1995..................................................................................................... 40

3-20. Percent Asian and Pacific Islander of Total State Population: 2025 .................... 41

3-21. Number of States by Categories of Percent Increase in Asian and Pacific

Islander Population: 1995-2025 ............................................................................ 42

3-22. Percent Distribution of Hispanic Population by Region: 1995 to 2025 ................. 43

3-23. Percent Hispanic of Total State Population: 1995 and 2025 ................................ 44

3-24. Percent Distribution of Regional Hispanic Population Increase

by State: 1995 to 2025.......................................................................................... 45

3-25. Population Growth of Race/Ethnic Groups by Region: 1995-2025 ...................... 46

3-26. Number of States with More than 100 Percent Increase of Population

in Specific Race/Ethnic Groups: 1995 to 2025 ..................................................... 47

3-27. Percent California of Total Population by Race/Ethnic Group: 2025.................... 49

Appendixes

Appendix A: Detailed Tables A-1

1. Projections and Percent Distribution of the Population by Race and

Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050............................................................................... A-2

2. Projections and Percent Distribution of Population Aged 0-14 by

Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050 .............................................................. A-3

3. Projections and Percent Distribution of Population Aged 65 and Over

by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050 ......................................................... A-4

4. Average Annual Percent Change in Population by Race and Hispanic

Origin: 1995 to 2050.............................................................................................. A-5

5. Projections of the Total Population of States: 1995 to 2025................................. A-6

Part A. Total Population.................................................................................. A-6

Part B. Non-Hispanic White Population.......................................................... A-7

Part C. Black Population................................................................................. A-8

Part D. American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut Population ................................ A-9

Part E. Asian and Pacific Islander Population................................................ A-10

Part F. Hispanic Population............................................................................ A-11

6. Average Annual Percent Change in Population for States: 1995 to 2025............ A-12

Part A. Total Population.................................................................................. A-12

Part B. Non-Hispanic White Population.......................................................... A-13
v

Part C. Black Population................................................................................. A-14

Part D. American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut Population ................................ A-15

Part E. Asian and Pacific Islander Population................................................ A-16

Part F. Hispanic Population............................................................................ A-17

7. Projections of Population Aged 0-14 for States: 1995 to 2025............................. A-18

Part A. Total Population.................................................................................. A-18

Part B. Non-Hispanic White Population.......................................................... A-19

Part C. Black Population................................................................................. A-20

Part D. American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut Population ................................ A-21

Part E. Asian and Pacific Islander Population................................................ A-22

Part F. Hispanic Population............................................................................ A-23

8. Projections of Population Aged 65 Years and Over for States: 1995 to 2025...... A-24

Part A. Total Population.................................................................................. A-24

Part B. Non-Hispanic White Population.......................................................... A-25

Part C. Black Population................................................................................. A-26

Part D. American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut Population ................................ A-27

Part E. Asian and Pacific Islander Population................................................ A-28

Part F. Hispanic Population............................................................................ A-29

Appendix B: B-1

1. List of Regions by State ........................................................................................ B-2
1

HIGHLIGHTS

National Projections (1995 to 2050)

♦ The population of the United States was 263 million in 1995, and will be 394 million in

2050. The Minority population will account for nearly 90 percent of the total growth of

131 million people.

♦ All racial and ethnic minority groups will increase faster than non-Hispanic Whites.

Asians and Hispanics are the fastest growing groups. The non-Hispanic White population

will register negative growth rates after 2035. As a result, every minority group will

represent an increasing share of the future U.S. population.

♦ The Minority population most likely will surpass the non-Minority (non-Hispanic White)

population after 2050. Minority population aged 5 and under will exceed non-Minority

by 2030. By 2050, there will be 18 million more Minority persons under age 35 than

non-Minority persons of the same ages.

♦ Racial and ethnic minority groups have much younger median ages than the nonMinority population. By 2015, for the non-Hispanic Whites, there will be more elderly

than youth. The opposite is true for all minority groups.

State-Level Projections (1995 to 2025)

♦ Throughout the projection, while about one-third of non-Hispanic Whites and over half

of Blacks will live in the South, nearly half of American Indians and Hispanics and over

half of Asians will reside in the West.

♦ The proportion of non-Hispanic Whites of the total state population will be reduced in all

states and all regions. The non-Hispanic White population in 11 states will be smaller in

2025 than in 1995.

♦ In 2025, the Minority population will exceed the non-Minority population in 5 states.

These 5 states will represent one-fourth of the total U.S. population, and 13 more states

will be over one-third Minority.

♦ The Black population was the largest minority group in 30 states in 1995 and will be in

22 states in 2025. Washington, D.C. will continue to have about 60 percent of its

population as Blacks.

♦ While California, Oklahoma and Arizona each has more than 10 percent of the total

American Indians living there, Alaska continues to have the highest proportion of

American Indian, Eskimo and Aleut population in the total state population.

♦ California continues to represent around 40 percent of the total Asian population, but

Hawaii has two-thirds of its population as Asians.
2

♦ In 1995, 4 states had over 20 percent of their total state population as Hispanics, the

number of such states will increase to 8 in 2025.

♦ Asian and Hispanic populations will double in nearly all states between 1995 and 2025.

♦ California will continue to be the most populous state for almost all race and ethnic

groups.

♦ The percent elderly (ages 65 and over) will increase in all regions and all states, while the

proportion of the youth population (ages 0-14) will decline in all regions and almost all

states.

♦ Florida will be the top state with percent elderly of state population for most of the race

and ethnic groups, but the top states for percent youth (0-14) vary by race and ethnic

groups and change over time.
3

I. INTRODUCTION

The U.S. population is becoming increasingly diverse. As the nation enters the 21st

century, the populations of race and ethnic1 minority groups will continue to experience more

rapid growth than the non-Hispanic White population on the national as well as the state and

regional level. As a result, the race and ethnic composition of the United States in the next

century will be significantly different from what it is today. The changing race and ethnic

composition will have important implications for future U.S. economic growth, as the emerging

minority marketplace becomes an increasingly stronger economic force.

Using the latest projection data, this report describes these population changes from 1995

to 2050 on the national level, and 1995 to 2025 on the state and regional level. The report depicts

the trends for individual race and ethnic origin groups, as well as for a combined Minority

population group. The term “Minority” in this report is used to represent the combined

population of people who are Black, American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut, Asian, Pacific Islander, or

of Hispanic origin (who may be of any race). Equivalently, the Minority population comprises

all people other than non-Hispanic Whites (who are termed the “non-Minority” population when

compared to the combined Minority population group).

The numbers used in this report are based on the latest official Census Bureau national

and state-level projections as of July 1, 1999. These projections are consistent with the 1990

census as enumerated, and are projected forward using the cohort-component method for future

fertility, mortality, and net immigration levels (and internal migration for states). For national

level projections, this report uses the “middle series” in the Census Bureau’s Current Population

Report P25-1130 “Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic

Origin: 1995 to 2050” (February 1996). The middle series applies the middle of the three

assumptions for each of the components of change. For state level projections, this report uses

the “preferred series” in the Census Bureau’s report PPL-47, “Population Projections for States

by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025” (October 1996). The preferred series

uses a demographically-based time series, which is different in the internal migration

assumptions from an alternative series using an economically-based set of assumptions2.

All population totals in this report are projections rather than estimates. Implicit is the

phrase “if the fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions of the projections hold” in all

statements regarding the population situation for all groups and areas for all years from 1995 to

2050.

The report discusses the national trends and changes in Section II. Section III presents

the analysis on the regional and state level, which examines individual race and ethnic groups, as

well as the Minority as a combined group. Section III ends with a summary that compares across

the groups.

 

1

 The racial classification used in this report adheres to Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Statistical

Directive No.15: “Race and Ethnic Standards for Federal Agencies and Administrative Reporting,” Federal

Register 43:19269-19270, May 4, 1978. New standards were adopted by OMB in October 1997 and will be

implemented by all Federal agencies no later than January 1, 2003.

2

 For further details of the projection methodology, see Section IV: Methodology and Accuracy of Projections.
4

II. NATIONAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS

This section discusses the population projections and trends on the national level from

1995 to 2050. It includes analysis on population size, population change, growth rates, and age

distribution by race and Hispanic origin.

The population of the United States was 263 million in 1995, and will be 394 million in

2050.

The population of the United States in 1995 was 263 million. It was the third largest

country in population size in the world, next to China and India3. By 2050, the U.S. population is

projected to become 394 million – a 50 percent increase over 1995. It will remain the third

largest country in the world, following India and China.

The increase of the U.S. population over the projection period (1995 to 2050) will be steady.

It will grow by about 12 million every five years until it tops 300 million shortly after 2010. The U.S.

population will be near 350 million in 2030, and approach 400 million by 2050 (Table 2-1).

Table 2-1.

Projections of the Population of the United States by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050

(Millions. Resident population)

Race Hispanic Origin

Year

Total Minority

NonMinority

(NonHispanic

White) White Black

American

Indian,

Eskimo,

and Aleut

Asian

and

Pacific

Islander Hispanic

NonHispanic

1995 262.8 69.3 193.6 218.1 33.1 2.2 9.4 26.9 235.9

2000 274.6 77.6 197.1 225.5 35.5 2.4 11.2 31.4 243.3

2005 286.0 86.2 199.8 232.5 37.7 2.6 13.2 36.1 249.9

2010 297.7 95.3 202.4 239.6 40.1 2.8 15.3 41.1 256.6

2015 310.1 105.1 205.0 247.2 42.6 2.9 17.4 46.7 263.4

2020 322.7 115.3 207.4 254.9 45.1 3.1 19.7 52.7 270.1

2025 335.0 125.9 209.1 262.2 47.5 3.3 22.0 58.9 276.1

2030 346.9 136.9 210.0 269.0 50.0 3.5 24.3 65.6 281.3

2035 358.5 148.4 210.1 275.5 52.5 3.7 26.8 72.6 285.8

2040 370.0 160.4 209.6 281.7 55.1 3.9 29.2 80.2 289.8

2045 381.7 172.9 208.8 288.0 57.8 4.1 31.8 88.1 293.6

2050 393.9 186.0 207.9 294.6 60.6 4.4 34.4 96.5 297.4

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1996, Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin:

1995 to 2050, by Jennifer Cheeseman Day, Current Population Reports, P25-1130, Washington, DC.

 

3

 U.S. Census Bureau, 1999, International Data Base.
5

The Minority population will account for nearly 90 percent of the total growth.

Of the 131 million increase of the total U.S. population over the 55 years of the

projection, 117 million, or nearly 90 percent of the total growth, will come from the Minority

population (Figure 2-1). The Minority population growth for every 5-year period is projected to

be 8-9 million until 2010, and 10 million or more thereafter. In 2040-2045 and 2045-2050, the

Minority population will experience a 13-million increase for each period, almost as much as the

total increase of 14 million for non-Minority during the entire 55 years of the projection.

The non-Minority population, on the other hand, increases only slightly from the

beginning of the projection, 1995, to the end year, 2050. The amount of this increase in each 5-

year projection period will decline. The growth will be 3 million every 5 years until 2015, then it

will experience zero growth for the 2030-2035 and 2035-2040 periods. In the last 10 years of the

projection, the non-Minority population will decline, from a total of 210 million in 2040 down to

208 million in 2050.

Figure 2-1.

Total U.S. Population by Minority/Non-Minority: 1995 to 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Millions

Non-Minority Minority
6

All racial and ethnic minority groups will increase faster than non-Hispanic Whites.

All racial and ethnic minority groups will grow at a much faster pace than the nonHispanic White population, who will increase by 7 percent in the 55 years (Figure 2-2). In 1995,

the Black population consisted of 33 million people. They are projected to grow to 61 million

during this projection period, an 83 percent increase. From 2015 on, there will be more Black

people added to the total population than non-Hispanic Whites every year. The American Indian,

Eskimo, and Aleut population had 2 million people and will increase to 4 million, nearly

doubling its 1995 size.

Asians and Hispanics are the fastest growing groups.

The Asian and Pacific Islander population4 and the Hispanic population (may be of any

race) are the fastest growing groups. Each will increase more than threefold, 267 percent for

Asians and 258 percent for Hispanics. Asians consisted of 9 million people in 1995 and will

have 34 million in 2050. The 5-year population increase of Asians will be larger than that of

non-Hispanic Whites from 2025 on. People of Hispanic origin (of any race) were 27 million in

1995 and will be 97 million in 2050. The 70-million increase of Hispanics during the 55 years

represents 53 percent of the total increase of the U.S. population over the entire projection period.

 

4

 For this report, the group "Asian and Pacific Islander" is sometimes referred to as "Asian." In 1990, Asians

comprised 95 percent (and Pacific Islanders 5 percent) of this group, and thus characteristics shown for the

combined group mainly reflect the characteristics of the Asian population. In the 2000 Census of Population

and Housing, “Asian and Pacific Islander” will be classified into two separate groups: "Asian" and "Native

Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander". The group "American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut" is sometimes referred to

as "American Indian" in this report, but will be classified as "American Indian or Alaska Native" in the 2000

census. Also in the 2000 census, “Black” will be classified as “Black or African American”, and “Hispanic”

will be classified as “Hispanic or Latino”.

Figure 2-2.

Percent Increase in Population: 1995 to 2050

50

169

7

83

95

267 258

Total Minority NonMinority

(NonHispanic

White)

Black American

Indian,

Eskimo, 

& Aleut

Asian &

Pacific

Islander

Hispanic
7

The Hispanic population will add more people in each 5-year period than the combined increase

of Blacks, American Indians and Asians.

By 2010, Hispanics will replace Blacks as the largest minority group.

In 1995, the Black population was the largest minority group. However, the more rapid

growth of people of Hispanic origin will result in Hispanics exceeding the Black population by

2010 (41 million Hispanics compared to 40 million Blacks, including Black Hispanics), with

Hispanics becoming the most populous minority group (Figure 2-3). The Hispanic population

will continue to grow rapidly throughout the projection period, reaching 97 million in 2050, and

exceeding the Black population of 61 million by 59 percent.

Every minority group will represent an increasing share of the future U.S. population.

As every minority group increases its share of the future U.S. population, the race and

ethnic distribution will become even more diversified as the nation progresses through the 21st

century (Figure 2-4). The Black population will grow from 13 percent to 15 percent of the total

U.S. population, and American Indians' share also will grow (from 0.9 to 1.1 percent). Asian and

Pacific Islanders and Hispanics will considerably expand their portion of the total U.S.

population. The Asian population will more than double its 1995 proportion of 4 percent to

become 9 percent in 2050. The Hispanic-origin share of the total population will increase by 2.4

times. In 1995, 10 in every 100 people in the United States were of Hispanic origin; by 2050, 24

in every 100 will be Hispanic.

Figure 2-3.

Black and Hispanic Population: 1995 to 2050

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Millions

Black Hispanic
8

The faster growth of minority race and ethnic groups will lead to a substantially reduced

share for the non-Hispanic White population – a 21-point drop from 74 percent in 1995 to 53

percent in 2050, when non-Hispanic Whites will make up just over half of the total U.S.

population.

Asian

4%

Non-Hispanic 

White

 (Non-Minority)

74%

American 

Indian

1%

Hispanic

 White

9%

Black

13%

Figure 2-4.

Percent Distribution of U.S. Population

1995 2050

Total Population: 263 million Total Population: 394 million

by Race

Asian

9%

Non-Hispanic 

White

 (Non-Minority)

53%

American 

Indian

1%

Hispanic

 White

22%

Black

15%

by Hispanic Origin

Hispanic 

(of any race)

10%

Non-Hispanic

90%

Hispanic 

(of any race)

24%

Non-Hispanic

76%
9

Growth rates of all groups will decline.

Despite the large increases expected in the number of people in the population, the rate of

population growth, referred to as the average annual percent change5, will decrease for the total

population as well as for all groups. For the total U.S. population, the growth rate will decrease

by 28 percent, from 0.88 for the 1995-2000 period to 0.63 for 2045-2050 (Figure 2-5). A short

plateau appears between 2000 and 2020 and will temporarily slow the steady decline. From 2035

to 2050, there will be another plateau, and the United States will grow at a rate comparable to

that in the early 1930s, the period of slowest population growth in the Unites States’ history. The

decrease in the rate of change may be due primarily to the slowing natural increase (births minus

deaths), mainly as a result of the aging of the population and, consequently, a regular increase in

the crude death rate.

 

5

 The average annual rate of change results from a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths and the balance of

migrants entering and leaving a country. The rate may be positive or negative. It is defined as the natural

logarithm of the ratio of the population at the end of a period to the population at the beginning of the period,

divided by the duration of the period in years.

Figure 2-5.

Average Annual Rate of Growth of U.S. Total Population: 1995 to 2050

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50

Period

Percent
10

The non-Hispanic White population will register negative growth rates after 2035.

The slow and declining growth rates of the non-Hispanic White population also

contribute to the downward growth rate trend of the total population. During this period, the

average annual growth rates of non-Hispanic Whites are projected to steadily decrease until zero

growth by 2035. Thereafter, they will register negative growth rates.

The slow population growth of non-Hispanic Whites may be a result of high deaths,

sustained low births and low immigration. During the 55 years of the projection period, most of

the deaths to the total population would occur to non-Hispanic Whites. In the meantime, nonHispanic White births are projected to represent less than one-half of all births. At 13.0 births per

1,000 population in 1995 and 11.2 per 1,000 in 2050, non-Hispanic White birth rates will be the

lowest among all race and ethnic groups. By 2030, there will be more deaths than births for the

non-Hispanic White population. Furthermore, net immigration of non-Hispanic Whites will

remain at an extremely low level, at a rate of less than 1 per 1,000 population.

All minority groups will maintain positive, albeit decreasing, growth rates.

In contrast, all minority race and ethnic groups will maintain positive, albeit decreasing,

annual growth rates throughout the projection years (Figure 2-6). The Black growth rates will be

at above 1 percent per year until 2030 and will stay at nearly 1 percent through 2050. And,

American Indians will maintain similarly steady rates during the entire projection period.

Figure 2-6.

Average Annual Rate of Growth by Race/Ethnic Group: 1995 to 2050

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30 2030-35 2035-40 2040-45 2045-50

Percent

Non-Hispanic White Black American Indian Asian Hispanic
11

Asians and Hispanics, on the other hand, will experience much higher growth rates. Asians

will grow at rates above 3 percent per year from 1995 to 2005, above 2 percent from 2005 to 2030,

and above 1 percent during the remaining years of the projection period. Net immigration is an

integral part of the rapid growth of the Asian population, which is projected to be higher than Asian

natural increase until 2025. The number of Asian immigrants will exceed the number of Asian births

until 2009.

Hispanics will maintain annual growth rates that exceed 2 percent until 2035. Hispanic

growth will mainly be a result of natural increase, which is kept high by their high birth rates. At

22.8 per 1,000 in 1995 and 19.3 per 1,000 in 2050, Hispanic birth rates are the highest among all

race and ethnic groups, and will be consistently higher than the natural increase for any other

group during the entire projection.

Interestingly, both Asian and Hispanic growth rates will decline fast during the

projection. Asian growth rates will drop more than 50 percent, and Hispanic growth rates will

decrease by 40 percent. The projected lower immigration rates for Asians, and lower birth rates

combined with lower immigration rates for Hispanics may be the main reasons for the declining

growth rate trends.

The Minority population most likely will surpass the non-Hispanic White population

after 2050.

As a result of the more rapid growth of minority groups than the non-Hispanic White

population, strikingly different trends will transpire for the Minority compared with the nonMinority (non-Hispanic White) population (Figure 2-7). As a group, the Minority population

will more than double between 1995 and 2050 (increasing by 169 percent), compared to just a 7

percent increase for non-Hispanic Whites. The combination of the high growth of the Minority

population and the slow (and even negative) change of the non-Hispanic White population will

most likely produce a reversal in the relative sizes of these two groups. Minority groups, which

represented 26 percent of the U.S. population in 1995, are projected to make up 47 percent of the

total population in 2050. Although the non-Hispanic White population will remain the most

populous race/ethnic group by the end of the projection period, if the trends in the U.S.

population in these two groups were to continue beyond 2050, then the combined Minority

population would surpass the non-Hispanic White population decades before the end of the 21st

century.
12

Minority children (aged 5 and under) will exceed non-Minority children by 2030.

While the total Minority population still will be less than the non-Minority population in

2050, the Minority population will exceed the non-Minority population at young ages much

earlier (Figure 2-8). In 2030, the Minority population will exceed the non-Minority population at

each age 0 through 5 years, with one-half million more Minority children in these ages than nonMinority children.

In 2050, the Minority population under age 35 will be 18 million more than the nonMinority population of the same ages.

Over time, the relationship of a larger Minority population will hold for increasingly

older ages. During the 55 years of projection, the Minority population under age 35 will more

than double, from 43 to 100 million, while the non-Minority population under 35 will decline

from 92 million to 82 million. By 2050, the Minority population will exceed non-Minority

population at every age, 0 through age 34, and the aggregated difference in these ages will be

about 18 million. Even for ages 35 years and over, the difference between these two populations

in 2030 will be reduced by 2050 for every age from age 35 to 83 years.

Figure 2-7.

Minority and Non-Minority Population: 1995 to 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Millions

Minority Non-Minority
13

Figure 2-8.

Difference Between Minority and Non-Minority Populations by Age 

(Thousands)

 2030

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

2050

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Age

Minority more

than non-Minority

Non-Minority more

than Minority
14

The U.S. population will be older than it is now, and the proportion of population age

65 years and over will increase from 13 percent in 1995 to 20 percent in 2050.

The U.S. population will be older than it is now. The median age6 of the population will

increase from 34.3 in 1995 to 38.1 in 2050. However, the increase will not be linear throughout

the 55 years. The population will be on average one year older for every 5-year period from

1995 to 2010, and then the increase will slow down until 2025. Then it will rise again and hit the

highest point of 38.7 in 2035. Interestingly, the U.S. population will become slightly younger

from 2035 to 2050 (Figure 2-9).

The increasing median age is driven partly by the aging of the population born during the

Baby Boom (1946-1964) and by the assumed increase in human longevity. About 30 percent of

the population in 1995 were born during the Baby Boom years. As this population ages, the

median age will rise. The sustained low fertility will also contribute to the increasing median

age.

Another indicator of the aging of the U.S. population is the changing distribution of youth

and elderly. For this report, “youth” is defined as those ages 0 to 14, and “elderly” is defined as

those of ages 65 and over. The proportion of youth will decrease from 1995 to 2015. From

2020, this age group will remain stable until 2050. On the other hand, the percent elderly will

increase from 2005 to 2035. The percent elderly rapidly increases during the 18-year period

2011 to 2029, as the Baby Boom population reaches the elderly ages. After 2035, the proportion

of these two age groups will converge and stay at 20 percent each until 2050. In other words, in

1995, among every 100 Americans, 22 were youth and 13 were elderly. By 2035 and until 2050,

the youth and elderly will be 20 each.

 

6

 Median age is defined as the midpoint age that separates the younger half of a population from the older half.

Figure 2-9. 

Median Age of the Total U.S. Population: 1995 to 2050

34.3

35.7 36.6 37.2 37.3 37.6 38.0 38.5 38.7 38.6 38.3 38.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
15

Racial and ethnic minority groups have much younger median ages than the nonHispanic White population.

A comparison of median ages from 1995 to 2050 across the racial and ethnic groups

clearly shows that minority groups have a much younger median age than the non-Hispanic

White population. The non-Hispanic Whites were 36.6 years old in 1995, about 6 to 10 years

older than minority groups; by 2050, the differences will increase, when non-Hispanic Whites

will be 9 to 13 years older than minority groups (Figure 2-10).

Non-Hispanic Whites have a similar trend as the U.S. total population – the median age

rises rapidly until 2015, continues to grow slowly until 2040, then drops thereafter. By contrast,

all minority groups will have an almost linear growth of their median age. Each minority group

will maintain its relative position in median age ranking -- the Asians will continue to be the

oldest among the minority groups, and the Hispanic population will remain the youngest group

throughout the projection. While the gap between the non-Hispanic White population and all

minority groups widens during the projection, the differences in median ages among the minority

groups will narrow.

Figure 2-10. 

Median Age by Race and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

N o n-H ispanic

White

A s ian

B lack

A m erican

Indian

H ispanic
16

By 2015, for non-Hispanic Whites, there will be more elderly than youth. For all

race/ethnic minority groups, youth will exceed elderly throughout the projection,

although these two age groups converge.

A further look at the percent distribution of selected age groups for each racial or ethnic

group (Figure 2-11) suggests that for non-Hispanic Whites, the proportions of youth and elderly

will grow at opposite, scissors-like directions. The elderly will grow from 15 percent in 1995 to

18 percent in 2015, surpassing the decreasing proportion of youth. In other words, by 2015, the

non-Hispanic White population is projected to have more elderly than youth. The two age

groups then will continue to grow at opposite directions until 2035 when the percent elderly

reaches a high of 25 percent and the percent youth reaches a low of 16 percent. Afterwards, the

two groups will maintain their respective levels and grow at a parallel direction until 2050.

By contrast, the age distributions of the race/ethnic minority groups indicate that they will

still have more youth than elderly by the end of the projection period, although there is a

converging pattern -- the proportion of youth will be decreasing and that of elderly will be

increasing (Figure 2-12). By 2050, the proportion of the elderly will be at around 15 percent for

all minority groups. However, the percent aged 0-14 for most minority groups will be at around

25 percent (with the exception of the Asians which is at 22 percent), still much higher than the

percent elderly. For all minority groups, the aging process will slow down at around the year

2030, when the descending trend of the youth and the ascending trend of the elderly stabilize and

grow at parallel directions. Interestingly, despite the projected decline of percent youth and

growth of percent elderly for the minority groups, every minority group in 2050 will have a

higher proportion of youth and a lower proportion of elderly than that for non-Hispanic Whites in

1995.

Figure 2-11.

Percent of Population Aged 0-14 and 65+ for the Non-Hispanic White 

Population: 1995 to 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Percent

0-14 65+
17

Figure 2-12.

Percent of Population Aged 0-14 and 65+ for Race/Ethnic 

Minority Groups: 1995 to 2050

 Black

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

American Indian

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Asian

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Hispanic

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0-14

65+
18

The dependency ratio will increase for every race/ethnic group, especially for nonHispanic Whites.

The differing age structures among race and ethnic groups affect their dependency ratios.

The dependency ratio indicates how many youth and elderly there would be for every 100 people

of working age. For the purpose of this report, youth are defined as those of ages 0 to 14 years

and elderly as those aged 65 years and over.

It is projected that for the total population, the dependency ratio would first slowly

decline from its 1995 level of 53 to 50 in 2005 (Table 2-2). This means that for the first 10 years

of the national projection, the working age population will increase faster than the population in

dependent age groups. Then, as the Baby Boom generation begins to reach age 65, this ratio is

projected to increase from 53 in 2015 to 67 in 2030, and will stay at the similar level for the

remainder of the projection period.

Table 2-2.

Dependency Ratios by Race and Ethnic Group: 1995 to 2050

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

U.S. Total 53 52 50 50 53 58 63 67 68 68 67 68

Non-Hispanic White 53 51 49 49 53 59 65 70 72 71 71 71

Black 55 53 52 51 53 56 60 62 63 63 62 63

American Indian,

Eskimo, and Aleut

57 54 52 52 55 57 59 60 60 61 61 62

Asian and Pacific

Islander

46 47 47 47 49 51 54 55 57 57 57 58

Hispanic 57 56 55 53 55 58 61 63 65 66 67 67

Note: Dependency ratios are defined in this table as the number of persons under age 15 years plus persons aged 65 years

and over per 100 persons aged 15 to 64 years.

The dependency ratio will increase for all race and ethnic groups. Asians have the lowest

dependency ratios throughout the period, at a low of 46 in 1995 and 58 in 2050. In 1995, all

other minority groups had higher dependency ratios than the non-Hispanic Whites. However, the

dependency ratio for the minority groups will increase at a slower pace than for the non-Hispanic

Whites, which will result in a lower dependency ratio for every minority group than the nonHispanic White population by 2020.

The Baby Boomers’ entrance into the age group 65 years and over will play a major role

in the increasing dependency ratios for non-Hispanic Whites. The ratios for the non-Hispanic

White population will rise rapidly after 2015 to hit a high of 72 in 2035, and stay around that

high level to the end of the projection period. The Hispanic population will have a higher percent

of population in the youth age group than any other race/ethnic group. They will have the

highest dependency ratio among all groups from 2000 through 2015. While non-Hispanic

Whites have the highest dependency ratio beginning in 2020, Hispanics will maintain a higher

dependency ratio than all race/ethnic minority groups through the end of the projection period.
19

III. STATE POPULATION PROJECTIONS

This section describes the evolving population trends and age distribution on the state and

regional levels from 1995 to 2025. For the purpose of this report, “states” include the 50 states

and the District of Columbia, and “regions” refer to the Northeast, the Midwest, the South, and

the West (see Appendix B for a complete listing of the regions by state).

Analysis of this section is organized by Minority/non-Minority and by race/ethnic groups.

First, the total population for the states is discussed. Then, the trends and patterns of all groups

are analyzed. Among the groups, the non-Minority (non-Hispanic White) population is discussed

first, and followed by its counterpart, the Minority population. Then the individual minority

groups are examined in the following order -- the Black population, the American Indian,

Eskimo, and Aleut population, the Asian and Pacific Islander population, and the Hispanic

population. The section ends with a cross-group comparison.

Total Population

During the 30 years from 1995 to 2025, more than one-third of the U.S. total population

will live in the South...

In 1995, 92 million people, or 35 percent of the total population, lived in the South

(Figure 3-1). The Midwest hosted 62 million people. Fifty-eight million people lived in the

West; and 51 million lived in the Northeast.

KS

NE

IA

MO

WI

IL

ME

Figure 3-1.

MIDWEST

1995 2025

24% 21%

SOUTH

1995 2025

35% 36%

NORTHEAST

1995 2025

20% 17%

WEST

1995 2025

22% 26%

Percent Distribution of the Total Population

by Region: 1995 and 2025
20

... but the West will experience the fastest population increase.

The South will continue to host about 36 percent of the total population in 2025.

However, the percent distribution will change for the rest of the regions. The region with the

fastest population growth is the West region, which will experience a 4 percentage point increase

during the 30 years, from 22 percent to 26 percent. On the other hand, although there will be

more people living in the Northeast and Midwest in 2025 than in 1995, these two regions’ shares

of the total U.S. population will drop by 3 percentage points each, from 20 percent to 17 percent

for the Northeast, and 24 percent to 21 percent for the Midwest. By 2005, the West Region will

replace the Midwest as the second largest region in the total U.S. population.

Over 80 percent of the U.S. population increase will occur in the South or the West.

Between 1995 and 2025, there will be an increase of 72.3 million people in the United

States. The South region and the West region will each make up 41 percent of the total increase

(Figure 3-2). Northeast, at 8 percent of the total increase, is projected to be the region that

contributes the least to the total population increase.

A few populous states will account for most of the regional growth for each region.

Figure 3-2 also indicates that the population increase of the most populous states will

account for most of the regional growth. In the Northeast, four states constitute 80 percent of the

increase of 6 million people during the 30-year projection, including New York (1.7 million, or

29 percent of the regional increase) and New Jersey (1.6 million, or 27 percent). The Midwest

regional increase will be a little more dispersed. Except for Illinois, which accounts for 22

percent (1.6 million) of the Midwest growth, the other top four states will make up about 10

percent each. Texas (8.5 million, or 29 percent) and Florida (6.5 million, or 22 percent) will be

responsible for half of the South regional growth of 30 million. And California, at 17.7 million

additional people, will constitute most (60 percent) of the regional growth for the West.

The top 10 states in population size in 1995 will remain the same in 2025.

Ten states make up more than half of the total U.S. population. These are the same states

in 1995 and 2025 – California, Texas, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio,

Michigan, New Jersey and Georgia (Table 3-1). All of these states will continue to grow and

maintain their top rankings. Florida, the 4th largest state in 1995, will experience faster growth

than New York and take its 3rd place in 2025. Illinois will take Pennsylvania’s 5th place, and

Georgia and New Jersey will also switch positions.

The three largest states in 2025, California, Texas and Florida, will increase their shares

of the total U.S. population. California, the top state that accounted for 12 percent of the U.S.

population in 1995, is projected to have an enlarged share of 15 percent in 2025.
21

Res t of 

Midwes t

33%

Indiana

10%

Illinois

22%

Wisconsin

10%

Missouri

13%

Minnesota

12%

Res t of 

Northeas t

20% New York

29%

Pennsylvania

10%

New Jersey

27%

Ma ssachus etts

14%

Texas

29%

Res t of South

40%

Florida

22%

Georgia

9%

California

60%

Rest of West

25%

Washington

8%

Arizona

7%

Figure 3-2.

States Contributing the Most to

Regional Population Growth: 

1995 to 2025

Northeast

Total population increase:

6 million

Percent of total U.S. population increase:

8%

Midwest

Total population increase:

7 million

Percent of total U.S. population increase:

10%

South

Total population increase:

30 million

Percent of total U.S. population increase:

41%

West

Total population increase:

30 million

Percent of total U.S. population increase:

41%
22

Table 3-1.

Top 10 States in Population Size and Percent of Total Population: 1995 and 2025

Rank Population

(Millions)

Percent of

State Total Population

1995 2025 1995 2025 1995 2025

California 1 1 31.6 49.3 12.0 14.7

Texas 2 2 18.7 27.2 7.1 8.1

New York 3 4 18.1 19.8 6.9 5.9

Florida 4 3 14.2 20.7 5.4 6.2

Pennsylvania 5 6 12.1 12.7 4.6 3.8

Illinois 6 5 11.8 13.4 4.5 4.0

Ohio 7 7 11.2 11.7 4.2 3.5

Michigan 8 8 9.5 10.1 3.6 3.0

New Jersey 9 10 7.9 9.6 3.0 2.9

Georgia 10 9 7.2 9.9 2.7 2.9

Total 142.4 184.4 54.2 55.0

California will sustain the largest population growth in both number of people and

percent increase.

Between 1995 and 2025, all 51 states (including Washington, D.C.) will experience

population increase – West Virginia will have the smallest but positive change of the population,

at 1 percent. As expected, as the biggest state in population size, California will top all the states

in increase of number of people (Figure 3-3). Interestingly, and perhaps more importantly, at 56

percent growth, California will also rank first in percent increase (Figure 3-4). The combination

of the fastest growth in both size and percent increase makes California the state with the largest

projected impact on U.S. population growth in the 30 years from 1995 to 2025.
23

Figure 3-4. 

State Population Growth by Percent 

Increase: 1995 to 2025

0 20 40 60

WV

PA

OH

MI

IA

NY

KY

IN

IL

MA

ND

CT

WI

ME

RI

VT

MS

MO

NE

DC

LA

SD

MN

DE

NJ

KS

AL

AR

OK

MD

NH

SC

TN

VA

MT

NC

GA

CO

OR

WA

WY

TX

FL

AK

UT

ID

NV

AZ

HI

NM

CA

In percent

Figure 3-3. 

State Population Growth by 

Population Size: 1995 to 2025

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

WV

ND

VT

DC

SD

DE

RI

ME

IA

WY

MT

AK

NH

NE

MS

KY

CT

MI

KS

AR

ID

OH

PA

HI

IN

WI

OK

NV

LA

MA

MN

NM

MO

UT

AL

SC

OR

MD

TN

CO

IL

NJ

NY

VA

NC

AZ

WA

GA

FL

TX

CA

In tho usands
24

The percent elderly (ages 65 and over) will increase in all regions and all states.

As the total U.S. population becomes older on the national level, the percent elderly (ages

65 and over) of regional population also will increase and percent youth (ages 14 and under) will

decrease for all regions during the state projection (Figure 3-5). With the largest increase (7

percentage points), the South region will have the highest percent elderly in 2025 at 20 percent.

The percent elderly for the Northeast was 14 in 1995 (the highest among the regions), and will

reach 18 percent in 2025. The percent elderly for Midwest will increase from 13 percent in 1995

to 19 percent in 2025. The West region will maintain the lowest percent elderly in 2025, 16

percent, from 11 percent in 1995.

The proportion elderly in total state population will also increase for all states. The

largest increase will take place in Montana, with a growth of 11 percentage points, from 13

percent to 24 percent. The smallest increase will occur in the District of Columbia, where the

percent elderly will maintain the similar level of 14 percent (a slight increase from 13.9 percent

to 14.1 percent).

Figure 3-5. 

Age Distribution by Region: 1995 and 2025

21% 19% 22% 20% 22% 19% 24% 23%

65% 62%

65%

61%

65%

61%

65%

61%

14% 18% 13%

19%

13%

20%

11% 16%

1995 2025 1995 2025 1995 2025 1995 2025

Northeast Midwest South West

65+

15-64

0-14
25

The proportion of the youth population (ages 0-14) will decline in all regions and almost

all states.

In contrast, all regions will undergo decline in percent youth, as also shown in Figure 3-5.

At 3 percentage points, the South will experience the largest decrease to become 19 percent

youth in 2025. The West, at 24 percent youth in 1995 and 23 percent in 2025, will continue to be

the region with the highest percent youth. All the other three regions will have similar percent

youth in 2025, at around 19 percent.

Almost all states (48) will undergo a decrease of percent youth of the total state

population. Among the three exceptions, the percent youth in California and Hawaii in 2025 will

remain similar to 1995, with a slight increase of 0.9 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. The

percent youth in the District of Columbia will grow from 18 percent to 21 percent.

Non-Hispanic White (Non-Minority) Population

The proportion of non-Hispanic Whites of the total state population will be reduced in

all states.

The non-Hispanic White (non-Minority) population will continue to go through

reductions in its proportion of the total state population. According to the projection, the

proportion of non-Hispanic White population in the total state population will be reduced in all

states (Figure 3-6). California will experience the greatest decline, a 19 percentage-point drop

from 53 percent non-Hispanic White in 1995 to 34 percent in 2025. Other states declining by 15

percentage points or more include Alaska, New Jersey and Nevada. A number of Northeast

states where the non-Hispanic Whites constituted the vast majority of the state population in

1995 will also experience large declines. They include Connecticut (82 percent in 1995 to 69

percent in 2025), Massachusetts (86 percent to 72 percent), and Rhode Island (88 percent to 74

percent).

At the other end of the ranking, states with almost no changes in percent non-Hispanic

White include some of the states that will remain overwhelmingly non-Hispanic White -- Maine

(98 percent in 1995 to 96 percent in 2025), Vermont (98 percent to 96 percent), New Hampshire

(97 percent to 94 percent), and West Virginia (96 percent to 94 percent). However, some states

with low percent non-Hispanic White will also experience very small changes, such as the

District of Columbia (28 percent to 26 percent), as well as Mississippi (63 percent to 61 percent)

and South Carolina (68 percent to 67 percent).

Non-Minority will experience a decreasing proportion in all regions.

As a result of the decreasing proportion for non-Minority of the state population in all

states, the percent non-Hispanic White of regional population will also be reduced in all regions

(Figure 3-7). The Midwest and the South will experience 6 and 9 percentage-point drops

respectively, of the non-Hispanic White population, and the Northeast will undergo a 12

percentage point decline. The West, the region with the lowest percent non-Hispanic White

population in 1995, will withstand a 15 percentage-point reduction. Remarkably, by 2025, nonHispanic Whites will make up less than half of the population of the West Region.
26

Note: Change in percent non-Hispanic White of total state population refers to percentage-point changes, e.g.,

non-Hispanic Whites made up 53 percent of California’s total state population in 1995 and will represent 34

percent in 2025, hence a decline of 19 percentage points.

Figure 3-6. 

Change in Percent Non-Hispanic White Population of Total 

State Population: 1995 to 2025

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

CA

AK

NJ

NV

RI

MA

NY

CT

MD

TX

AZ

FL

IL

NM

CO

VA

WA

DE

GA

OK

OR

KS

MN

LA

HI

WY

WI

ID

PA

UT

NE

ND

MI

OH

MT

SD

IA

MO

IN

NC

TN

NH

VT

DC

MS

KY

WV

ME

AL 

SC

AR
27

The non-Hispanic White population in 11 states will be smaller in 2025 than in 1995.

Not only will the percent non-Hispanic White decline in all states during the projection,

but the population size of non-Hispanic Whites in 11 states also will be reduced (Figure 3-8).

The greatest decline in number of non-Hispanic White people will occur in New York, 1.5

million, or 12 percent decrease. The non-Hispanic White population in New Jersey,

Pennsylvania, Massachusetts and Illinois will be reduced by more than 200,000 each.

Six of these 11 states will be in the Northeast. This is equivalent to two-thirds of the

states in the Northeast (9 states in the region), representing 94 percent of the regional population

in 2025. Consequently, the non-Hispanic White population in the Northeast will be reduced from

39.9 million to 37.8 million.

The top 10 states for non-Hispanic White population increase will be in the South or the

West.

By comparison, states with the largest increase of non-Hispanic White people are

concentrated in the South and West regions (Figure 3-9). Florida will rank at the top with an

increase of 2.2 million non-Hispanic White people, a possible result of the migration of nonHispanic White elderly to Florida. Other states with an increase of more than 1 million nonHispanic White people include Texas, North Carolina and Georgia in the South and Washington

in the West.

Figure 3-7.

Percent Non-Hispanic White of Regional Population: 

1995 and 2025

77%

85%

70%

66% 64%

78%

62%

49%

Northeast Midwest South West

1995 2025
28

Figure 3-8. 

States with Declining Non-Hispanic White Population: 

1995 to 2025

New York

New Jersey

Pennsylvania

Massachusetts

Illinois

Michigan

Connecticut

Ohio

Rhode Island

West Virginia

California

-1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.4 0.0

Millions

Figure 3-9. 

Top 10 States for Increase of Non-Hispanic White 

Population: 1995 to 2025

Colorado

Utah

Arizona

Oregon

Tennessee

Georgia

North Carolina

Washington

Texas

Florida

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

Millions
29

The South will contribute to nearly two-thirds of the increase of non-Hispanic Whites.

Despite the decreasing proportions of the non-Minority population in regional population,

there still will be an increase in the number of non-Hispanic White people for most of the

regions. During the 30 years of the state projection, the non-Hispanic White population will

grow by 17.7 million in the Midwest, South, and West regions combined, and will decline by 2.1

million in the Northeast (net increase of 15.6 million). There are great variations among the

regions, however. The Midwest will augment by only 2 million, from 52 million in 1995 to 54

million in 2025. Two-thirds of the net increase will occur in the South, where the non-Hispanic

Whites will grow from 64 million to 75 million.

Minority Population

In 2025, the Minority population will exceed the non-Minority population in 5 states.

In 1995, 24 states had populations with less than 15 percent Minority (Figure 3-10).

Alternatively, the non-Minority population in these states represented 85 percent or more of their

total population. The concentration of Minority population was relatively greater in border and

coastal states in the South and the West regions. During the projection, the percent Minority will

increase in every state, and the state-level concentration of Minority population will extend

northward and westward. As a result, by 2025, the number of states with less than 15 percent

Minority population will decline to 11, and most of those states will be in the Northeast and

Midwest.

In 1995, the District of Columbia, Hawaii and New Mexico already had Minority

populations exceeding 50 percent of their population. By 2000, California’s Minority population

will surpass the non-Minority population, and the Minority population will represent more than

50 percent of the total state population in Texas by 2015.

These 5 states will represent one-fourth of the total U.S. population...

The combined population in 1995 of the three states with more than 50 percent Minority

population represented 1 percent of the total U.S. population. Adding the two most populous

states of California and Texas to the states with over 50 percent Minority population implies that

in 2025, 82 million people, or about one-fourth of the total U.S. population, will live in states

where the Minority population exceeds the non-Minority population.

...and 13 more states will be over one-third Minority.

In addition to the 5 top Minority states, by 2025, there will be 13 more states that are onethird or more Minority (Figure 3-11), an increase from 6 such states in 1995. These include

populous states of Florida, New York, Illinois, Georgia, New Jersey and Virginia.

At the bottom of the distribution -- states with less than 10 percent Minority population –

are 5 states, a significant decline from 15 states in 1995. These 5 states include three states in the

Northeast, one in the Midwest and one in the South. They are Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire,

Iowa, and West Virginia, respectively.
30

TX

OK AZ NM

CA

NV

UT

CO

OR

KS

NE

WY

WA

ID

MT ND

SD

AK

HI

MN

IA

MO

LA

AR

WI

IL

MS AL GA

FL

SC

TN

IN

MI

NC

VA

KY

OH

WV

PA

NY

#

DC

#

VT #

NH ME

#

MA

#

RI

#

# CT

NJ

#

# DE

MD

Figure 3-10.

Percent Minority of Total State Population

1995

Percent

Less than 15.0

15.0 to 24.99

25.0 to 49.99

50.0 +

TX

OK AZ NM

CA

NV

UT

CO

OR

KS

NE

WY

WA

ID

MT ND

SD

AK

HI

MN

IA

MO

LA

AR

WI

IL

MS AL GA

FL

SC

TN

IN

MI

NC

VA

KY

OH

WV

PA

NY

#

DC

#

VT #

NH ME

#

MA

#

RI

#

# CT

NJ

#

# DE

MD

2025
31

Figure 3-11. 

States Ranked by Percent Minority: 2025

3.7

4.4

5.5

6.1

8.9

10.4

12.3

13.3

14.0

14.4

14.6

15.0

15.3

15.7

16.3

16.8

17.4

18.0

18.9

19.0

19.7

20.0

21.4

23.9

24.3

26.5

27.4

28.2

28.7

29.0

29.8

31.0

31.1

33.2

35.3

37.5

39.4

39.4

39.6

41.1

42.5

42.7

42.9

44.8

45.7

46.6

54.0

60.3

66.3

73.9

77.3

ME

VT

NH

WV

IA

KY

ND

MT

SD

NE

IN

MN

ID

UT

WY

WI

MO

OR

OH

AR

PA

KS

TN

WA

MI

RI

OK

MA

AL

NC

CO

CT

DE

SC

VA

IL

MS

GA

NV

FL

AZ

LA

AK

NJ

MD

NY

TX

NM

CA

DC

HI
32

The West will gain an increasing share of the Minority population distribution.

In 1995, 40 percent of the Minority population resided in the South (Figure 3-12).

Relatively small proportions of Minority lived in the Northeast or Midwest (17 percent, and 14

percent, respectively). And nearly one-third of the Minority population lived in the West.

The 2025 regional distribution of the Minority population shows a significant increase in

the share of the West, from 30 percent to 36 percent. The other three regions will each make up a

smaller proportion. The largest decrease will take place in the South, with a 3 percentage-point

decline. In 1995, the South was 10 percentage points higher than the West (40 percent of the

South compared to 30 percent of the West), but by 2025, the West will catch up with the South

and possess a similar share of the total Minority population.

Northeast

W est 17%

30%

Midwest

14%

South

40%

Figure 3-12.

Percent Distribution of Minority Population by Region: 1995 and 2025

Northeast

16%

W est

36% Midwest

12%

South

37%

1995 2025

Total Minority Population: 69 million Total Minority Population: 126 million
33

Black Population

53 percent of the Black population resided in the South in 1995, and only 10 percent in

the West; the same distribution will remain in 2025.

The Black population consisted of 33.1 million people in 1995, and 53 percent lived in

the South (Figure 3-13). The West contained only 10 percent of the Black population, and the

Northeast and Midwest made up 19 percent each.

 Total Black Population: 33 million

The 2025 population distribution of the Black population by region will be similar. The

South will continue to host more than half (55 percent) of the 47.5 million Blacks, and the West

is projected to maintain its share (10 percent). The Northeast and the Midwest will share similar

yet slightly smaller proportions of the total Black population, at 18 percent and 17 percent each.

All states will experience an increase of the Black population.

The Black population will grow from 1995 to 2025 in all states. The largest number of

Black people will be added to Texas (1.6 million), to be followed by Florida (1.5 million),

Georgia (1.3 million), and California (1.0 million) (Figure 3-14). Seven of the 10 top states for

Black population increase are in the South – Texas, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Virginia, North

Carolina, and Louisiana. On the other hand, eight states will add less than 10,000 Black

population during the projection and all of them (except West Virginia) will be outside the South

region.

As expected, the largest percent increases will occur in states with a relatively small

Black population, such as Idaho (198 percent increase), Wyoming (155 percent), Utah (133

Figure 3-13. 

Regional Distribution of Black Population: 1995

West

10%

South

52%

Midwest

19%

Northeast

19%
34

percent), Vermont (120 percent), New Mexico (114 percent), and New Hampshire (104 percent).

However, Minnesota (the 20th largest state for total state population in 1995) will also join these

states to double its Black population during the 30 years of projection, with an increase of

151,000 Black people.

The Black population is the largest minority group in 30 states in 1995 and 22 states in

2025.

In 1995, the Black population was the largest minority group in 30 states. These states

represented most of the South and Midwest regions and the 5 larger states in the Northeast. In no

West region state were Blacks the most populous population among minority groups (Table 3-2).

The Blacks will remain the largest minority group in 22 states in 2025. Oklahoma is

projected to be added to the list when the Blacks surpass the American Indians in 2000. The

Hispanic population will become the largest minority group in all 9 states where the Black

population drops to the 2nd place. These include the populous states of Connecticut,

Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York in the Northeast, Illinois in the Midwest, and Florida

in the South. As in 1995, the Black population is not projected to become the largest minority

group in any state in the West region in 2025.

Figure 3-14. 

Top States for Black Population Increase: 1995 to 2025

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

TX FL GA CA NY MD VA NC NJ LA

Thousands
35

Table 3-2.

States Where the Black Population Ranks as the Most Populous Minority Group:

1995 and 2025

1995 2025

MIDWEST

Illinois

Indiana Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Michigan Michigan

Minnesota Minnesota

Missouri Missouri

Nebraska

Ohio Ohio

Wisconsin Wisconsin

NORTHEAST

Connecticut

Massachusetts

New Jersey

New York

Pennsylvania Pennsylvania

SOUTH

Alabama Alabama

Arkansas Arkansas

Delaware Delaware

District of Columbia District of Columbia

Florida

Georgia Georgia

Kentucky Kentucky

Louisiana Louisiana

Maryland Maryland

Mississippi Mississippi

North Carolina North Carolina

Oklahoma

South Carolina South Carolina

Tennessee Tennessee

Virginia Virginia

West Virginia West Virginia
36

Washington, D.C. will continue to have about 60 percent Black of its total population.

The highest concentration of Blacks in state population was in the District of Columbia,

where 64 percent of the population was Black in 1995, more than the non-Hispanic Whites. Its

top ranking position of percent Black will be maintained in 2025, albeit with a 5 percentage-point

decline, at 59 percent Black (Figure 3-15). Mississippi was, and will remain a distant second at

about 36 percent Black in both 1995 and 2025. Louisiana, Georgia, Maryland, and South

Carolina will also be among the top states throughout the projection, at around 30 percent Black.

Another 5 states, Alabama, North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware and New York, will be more than

20 percent Black in 2025.

Figure 3-15 indicates that the states with the highest concentration of Black population

are largely in the South region, plus one state in the Northeast (New York). At the other end of

the rankings, 17 states will remain less than 5 percent Black in 2025, among which 6 states will

have less than 1 percent Black (Montana, Maine, Vermont, South Dakota, North Dakota, and

Idaho). Among these 17 states with very low percent Black, only one of them (West Virginia) is

in the South.

Percent

Less than 5.00

5.00 to 9.99

10.00 to 19.99

20.00 +

TX

OK AZ NM

CA

NV

UT

CO

OR

KS

NE

WY

WA

ID

MT ND

SD

AK

HI

MN

IA

MO

LA

AR

WI

IL

MS AL GA

FL

SC

TN

IN

MI

NC

VA

KY

OH

WV

PA

NY

#

DC

#

VT #

NH ME

#

MA

#

RI

#

# CT

NJ

#

# DE

MD

Figure 3-15.

U.S. 14.19

Percent Black of Total State Population: 2025
37

American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut Population

Nearly half of the American Indians will remain in the West, and the Northeast will

continue to host only 6 percent of all American Indians.

There were 2.2 million American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut people in 1995, and they

were highly concentrated in the West (Figure 3-16). At 1.6 million in 2025, the West will

continue to host 49 percent of the American Indians, when the total American Indian population

in the United States reaches 3.3 million. The remaining three regions will roughly maintain their

respective proportions. The Northeast will continue to hold the smallest share, 6 percent of the

total American Indian population, and the Midwest will gain slightly while the South will lose 1

percentage point.

 Total American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut Population: 2 million

While California, Oklahoma and Arizona each has more than 10 percent of the total

American Indians living there...

As in 1995, 5 states will host about half of the American Indian population in 2025

(Figure 3-17). Three states, California (393,000), Oklahoma (368,000) and Arizona (332,000)

will represent shares of more than 10 percent of all American Indians. However, although the

number of American Indians in all these three states will increase, their respective percentage of

the total American Indians will be reduced. On the other hand, New Mexico and Washington

will expand their shares, especially New Mexico (6.7 percent to 8.2 percent). Texas will also

represent a larger proportion of the total American Indian population (3.8 percent to 4.8 percent),

to become one of the top five states for American Indian population in 2025.

Figure 3-16. 

Percent Distribution of American Indian, Eskimo, and 

Aleut Population by Region: 1995 

Northeast

6%

Midwest

16%

South

28%

West

49%
38

...Alaska continues to have the highest, albeit reducing, proportion of American Indian,

Eskimo and Aleut in the total state population.

Although the big state of California holds the largest number of American Indians,

American Indians will be less than 1 percent of the state population for California in 2025.

Alaska tops all states for percent American Indian of total state population, with 15 percent in

1995 and 11 percent in 2025. Other top states with percent American Indian include New

Mexico (10 percent in 2025), South Dakota (10 percent), Oklahoma (9 percent), Montana (8

percent), and North Dakota (8 percent). In all, 19 states will have at or above the percent

American Indian of U.S. total population (0.99 percent) in 2025. Conversely, American Indians

in 32 states constituted less than 1 percent of the total state population (Figure 3-18). Notably,

Oklahoma and New Mexico are among the top states in both number of American Indian people

and percent American Indian of the state population.

Figure 3-17. 

States with Largest Share of Total American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut 

Population: 1995 and 2025

13.3

11.9

10.9

6.7

4.4

11.9

11.1

10.0

8.2

4.8

CA OK AZ NM WA CA OK AZ NM TX

1995 2025

Percent 
39

Percent

Less than 1.00

1.00 +

TX

OK AZ NM

CA

NV

UT

CO

OR

KS

NE

WY

WA

ID

MT ND

SD

AK

HI

MN

IA

MO

LA

AR

WI

IL

MS AL GA

FL

SC

TN

IN

MI

NC

VA

KY

OH

WV

PA

NY

#

DC

#

VT #

NH ME

#

MA

#

RI

#

# CT

NJ

#

# DE

MD

Figure 3-18.

8.23

8.06

10.35

9.07

10.48

5.18

10.82

U.S. 0.99

Percent American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut of

Total State Population: 2025

3 states will double their American Indian population by 2025, and 19 states will

increase more than 50 percent.

During the 30 years of the state projection, the American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

population will increase in all states but Mississippi. Three states, Wyoming, North Dakota and

Rhode Island will have their American Indian population more than doubled (increase by 149

percent, 109 percent, and 104 percent, respectively). In another 19 states, the American Indian

population will increase by 50 to 99 percent.

The largest increase of number of American Indian people will occur in New Mexico,

where an addition of 123,000 American Indians is projected. New Mexico is the 4th largest state

of American Indian population in both 1995 and 2025, and will also be one of the top states with

percent increase (82 percent).
40

Asian and Pacific Islander Population

55 percent of the Asian population lived in the West in 1995, and the regional

distribution will be similar in 2025.

The Asian and Pacific Islander population consisted of 9.3 million people in 1995, and

more than half of them (55 percent) lived in the West region (Figure 3-19). When the Asians

increase to 22.0 million in 2025, the West will still host 55 percent of the total Asian and Pacific

Islander population.

The Northeast was the region that hosted the second largest share, 18 percent, of the

Asian and Pacific Islanders. The South contained 17 percent of the Asians, and the Midwest

comprised 11 percent.

The regional distribution of the Asian and Pacific Islander population in 2025 will be

similar to 1995. All regions will maintain their respective proportions, with the Northeast and

West increasing and the Midwest and South decreasingly slightly.

 Total Asian and Pacific Islander Population: 9 million

Figure 3-19.

Percent Distribution of Asian and Pacific Islander

Population by Region and State: 1995

South

17%

Midwest

11%

West

55%

Northeast

18%

California

39%

Other

44%

New York

9%

Hawaii

8%
41

California continues to represent around 40 percent of the total Asian population...

Figure 3-19 also indicates that Asians were highly concentrated in the state of California,

with almost 40 percent of the Asian and Pacific Islander population living there in 1995.

California’s share will be further enlarged to 41 percent in 2025.

Two more states had a high concentration of Asian and Pacific Islanders – New York

hosted 9 percent and Hawaii contained 8 percent in 1995. Interestingly, while New York

maintains 9 percent of the Asians in 2025, Hawaii’s Asian and Pacific Islander population will

make up only 5 percent of the total Asians by the end of the state projection.

...but Hawaii has two-thirds of its population as Asians.

Hawaii, however, was the state of which 64 percent of its total state population were

Asian and Pacific Islanders in 1995, exceeding non-Hispanic White population in the state. The

proportion for Asians in Hawaii will increase to 66 in 2025 (Figure 3-20). Eleven other states

topped the states with percent Asian near or above the percent Asian in total U.S. population (3.6

percent in 1995 and 6.6 percent in 2025). These 11 states are projected to stay at the top in 2025,

among which Alaska (22 percent), California (18 percent), New Jersey (10 percent) and New

York and Washington (9 percent) will have the highest percentage of Asian and Pacific Islanders

in their total state population.

Percent

Less than 5.00

5.00 +

TX

OK AZ NM

CA

NV

UT

CO

OR

KS

NE

WY

WA

ID

MT ND

SD

AK

HI

MN

IA

MO

LA

AR

WI

IL

MS AL GA

FL

SC

TN

IN

MI

NC

VA

KY

OH

WV

PA

NY

#

DC

#

VT #

NH ME

#

MA

#

RI

#

# CT

NJ

#

# DE

MD

Figure 3-20.

21.73

U.S. 6.56

18.42

66.06

9.46

10.41

Percent Asian and Pacific Islander of Total State Population: 2025

9.14
42

46 states will more than double their Asian population by 2025.

Although the Asians are relatively concentrated in a few states or regions, the Asian and

Pacific Islander population will increase in all states (Figure 3-21). Most of them, 46 states, will

more than double their Asian population between 1995 and 2025. Among the 5 states with less

than 100 percent increase of the Asian population, Kentucky, Arkansas and Missouri will

experience an increase of 90 percent or more, District of Columbia will have a 72 percent

increase, and Hawaii will undergo a 59 percent growth.

Hispanic Population

45 percent of the Hispanic population lived in the West in 1995, and the West’s share in

2025 will increase to 48 percent.

There were 26.9 million people of Hispanic origin (who may be of any race) in 1995, and

the Hispanic population is projected to double in size to become 58.9 million in 2025. About 45

percent (12.2 million) of the total Hispanic population lived in the West region in 1995 (Figure 3-

22), of whom 9.2 million, or 34 percent of all Hispanics, lived in California. The West region’s

share will increase to 48 percent in 2025, when 28.2 million people of Hispanic origin will reside

in that region. California alone will host 21.2 million Hispanics, 36 percent of the total Hispanic

population in 2025.

While the proportion of the West will be increasing, all other regions will constitute

decreasing shares during the 30 years of state projection. The largest decrease will occur in the

Northeast, with a 2 percentage-point decline (from 16.4 percent to 14.5 percent). The Midwest

and South regions will maintain similar respective proportions with slight decline, at 7 percent

for the Midwest and 30 percent for the South in 2025.

Figure 3-21. 

Number of States by Categories of Percent Increase in Asian 

and Pacific Islander Population: 1995-2025

5

34

12

0

<50 50-99 100-149 150+

Percent Increase
43

In 1995, 4 state populations were over 20 percent Hispanic, and the number of such

states will increase to 8 in 2025.

The relatively high concentration of the Hispanic population in the West is also indicated

by the large number of states in the West with high percent Hispanic of the total state population

(Figure 3-23). In 1995, among the four states that were over 20 percent Hispanic, three were in

the West region (New Mexico, California and Arizona) and one in the South (Texas). By 2015,

the Hispanic population in New Mexico and California will exceed the non-Hispanic White

population in both states.

By 2025, Nevada, Florida, New York and Colorado will join the over-20-percent group,

increasing the number of such states from 4 in 1995 to 8 in 2025. Other states with high percent

Hispanic in 2025 include New Jersey (19 percent), Illinois (17 percent), Rhode Island and

Connecticut (15 percent).

Figure 3-22. 

Percent Distribution of Hispanic Population by Region: 1995 to 2025

45.3% 45.6% 46.0% 46.5% 47.0% 47.5% 47.9%

30.5% 30.6% 30.6% 30.5% 30.3% 30.2% 30.1%

7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 7.4%

16.4% 16.0% 15.7% 15.3% 15.1% 14.8% 14.5%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Northeast

Midwest

South

West
44

TX

OK AZ NM

CA

NV

UT

CO

OR

KS

NE

WY

WA

ID

MT ND

SD

AK

HI

MN

IA

MO

LA

AR

WI

IL

MS AL GA

FL

SC

TN

IN

MI

NC

VA

KY

OH

WV

PA

NY

#

DC

#

VT #

NH ME

#

MA

#

RI

#

# CT

NJ

#

# DE

MD

Figure 3-23.

U.S. 10.25

Percent Hispanic of Total State Population

1995

Percent

Less than 5.00

5.00 to 9.99

10.00 to 19.99

20.00 +

TX

OK AZ NM

CA

NV

UT

CO

OR

KS

NE

WY

WA

ID

MT ND

SD

AK

HI

MN

IA

MO

LA

AR

WI

IL

MS AL GA

FL

SC

TN

IN

MI

NC

VA

KY

OH

WV

PA

NY

#

DC

#

VT #

NH ME

#

MA

#

RI

#

# CT

NJ

#

# DE

MD

U.S. 17.59

2025
45

In all regions, one or two states will contribute to most of the increase of the Hispanic

population.

A few states will contribute to most of the increase of the Hispanic population in each

region (Figure 3-24). As a result, by 2025, the Hispanic population will continue to be

concentrated in a few states. California will account for 75 percent of the regional increase of the

Hispanics in the West, and Illinois will be responsible for more than half of the Midwest regional

growth of the Hispanic population. Two states, Texas (53 percent) and Florida (31 percent) will

contribute to most of the regional increase of Hispanics in the South, and New York (42 percent)

and New Jersey (23 percent) will provide two-thirds of the regional increase of the Northeast.

Figure 3-24.

Percent Distribution of Regional Hispanic Population Increase by State:

1995 to 2025

Other states

34%

New Jersey

23%

New York

43% Illinois

52%

Other states

48%

Other states

15%

Florida

31%

Texas

53%

California

75%

Other states

25%

Northeast Midwest

South West
46

44 states will more than double their Hispanic population by 2025.

Despite the relative concentration of Hispanics in a few states or regions, the Hispanic

population will double in 44 states. Among the remaining 7 states, 3 will experience almost 100-

percent growth of the Hispanic population (99.8 percent for Alabama, 97.7 percent for Texas,

and 97.1 percent for Ohio), and the other 4 states will undergo high percentage increases as well

(New Mexico, 89 percent, Hawaii, 88 percent, Michigan, 85 percent, and New York, 69 percent).

Cross-Group Comparison

Most of the population increase for all race/ethnic groups will occur in the West or the

South.

All race and ethnic populations will grow in all regions (except for the non-Hispanic

White population in the Northeast). The distribution of population growth for each race and

ethnic group by region shows that most of the increase for all groups takes place in the West or

the South (Figure 3-25). The West will contribute most to the population increase of American

Indians, Asians and Hispanics. From 1995 to 2025, 16 million Hispanics, 7 million Asians, and

more than 500,000 American Indians will be added to the West region. The South will be the

region that experiences the largest growth for the non-Hispanic Whites and the Blacks. During

the 30 years, 10 million more non-Hispanic Whites and 8 million more Blacks will live in the

South. By contrast, the population growth is smallest in the Northeast for non-Hispanic Whites

(negative change) and American Indians, in the Midwest for Asians and Hispanics, and in the

West for Blacks.

Figure 3-25. 

Population Growth of Race/Ethnic Groups by Region: 1995-2025

(Millions) 

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Non-Hispanic White Black American Indian Asian Hispanic

Northeast Midwest South West
47

Asian and Hispanic populations will double in nearly all states between 1995 and 2025.

All minority groups will double their populations in some states between 1995 and 2025.

However, the magnitude of growth is far from the same between the groups. From 1995 to 2025,

Asian and Pacific Islanders will double their population in 46 states and Hispanics in 44 states

(Figure 3-26). That is, during the three decades of the state projections, nearly all states will

experience an increase of more than 100 percent in their Asian and Hispanic populations. The

Black population is projected to double in 7 states, and the American Indian population in 3

states. By contrast, there is no state in which non-Hispanic Whites will double their population.

The population of specific groups in some less-populated states will more than triple,

with percent increases in population of 200 percent or more. The Hispanic population of Nevada

and the Asian population of Wyoming will increase three-fold during the projection period.

Alaska’s Asian population is projected to experience a six-fold increase.

Top states for percent race/ethnic group of total state population will be the same in

1995 and 2025.

Over the 30-year projection period, states with the highest percentage of each race/ethnic

population in total state population will remain the same (Table 3-3). Maine will continue to be

the state where non-Hispanic Whites comprise the highest percent (96 percent in 2025) of the

total state population. Washington, D.C. will remain the place where Blacks have the highest

concentration, 64 percent in 1995 and 59 percent in 2025. Alaska’s top ranking as the state with

the highest percentage of the American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population, 15 percent in 1995

and 11 percent in 2025, will be maintained. Hawaii, with 64 percent Asian and Pacific Islanders

Figure 3-26.

Number of States with More than 100 Percent Increase of 

Population in Specific Race/Ethnic Groups: 

1995 to 2025

3

7

44

46

White, Non-Hispanic 0

American Indian

Black

Hispanic

Asian
48

in 1995 and 66 percent in 2025, will remain the state with the highest percentage of Asian and

Pacific Islander population. New Mexico not only will continue to host the largest state

proportion of Hispanics, but also will undergo a considerable increase, from 39 percent to 48

percent.

Table 3-3.

Top and Bottom States for Percent Race/Ethnic Population of Total State Population:

1995 and 2025

Percent Race/Ethnic Population of Total State Population

Race/Ethnic Group Highest Lowest

1995 2025 1995 2025

Non-Hispanic White Maine Maine District of Columbia Hawaii

Black District of Columbia District of Columbia Montana Montana

American Indian,

Eskimo, and Aleut

Alaska Alaska West Virginia West Virginia

Asian and Pacific

Islander

Hawaii Hawaii West Virginia Arkansas

Hispanic New Mexico New Mexico West Virginia Alabama

The states with the lowest percent of race/ethnic population will change over the 30

years, although the lowest-ranked states in 1995 remain near the bottom in 2025. In 1995, 28

percent of the Washington, D.C. population were non-Hispanic Whites, but by 2025, Hawaii will

become the state with the smallest percent of non-Hispanic White population. For minority

groups, the lowest percent each group represents of the state population will be about 1 percent.

Montana will continue to be the state with the lowest percent of Black population. West Virginia,

the state with the lowest percentage of American Indians, Asians, and Hispanics in 1995, will

continue to host the lowest percentage of American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut population, but

will be replaced by Arkansas for Asian and Pacific Islanders, and by Alabama for Hispanics.

California will continue to be the largest state for almost all race and ethnic groups.

On the other hand, California is and will remain the largest state for the total population

throughout the 30 years of state projection, representing 12 percent of the U.S. population in

1995 and 15 percent in 2025 (Figure 3-27). It will also remain the largest state for almost all race

and ethnic groups (except for Blacks). California itself hosted 39 percent of all Asians in 1995,

and its share will increase to 41 percent in 2025. Similarly, California contained 34 percent of all

Hispanics in 1995 and will take up 36 percent in 2025. California also ranks at the top for the

other two populations, non-Hispanic Whites and American Indians, although percent California

declines slightly during the state projection, from 9 percent to 8 percent for the non-Hispanic

White population and from 13 percent to 12 percent for the American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

population. For the Black population, California made up 7 percent of all Blacks, the 2nd highest

percentage in 1995 and 4th highest percentage in 2025 (New York will maintain its top ranking).
49

Figure 3-27. 

Percent California of Total Population by Race/Ethnic Group: 2025

85%

15%

Total Population

92%

8%

88%

12%

64%

36%

59%

41%

93%

7%

Black

Asian & Pacific Islander Hispanic

American Indian, Eskimo, & Aleut

Non-Hispanic White

California Other
50

Florida will be the top state with percent elderly of state population for most of the

race/ethnic groups.

In 1995, Florida was the state with the highest percent elderly of the state population for

the total population, as well as for the non-Hispanic White and Hispanic populations (Table 3-4).

By 2025, Florida will become the top state for percent elderly for Asian and Pacific Islander

population as well. Even for Blacks and American Indians, Florida will become the state with

the 3rd highest percent elderly for both populations in 2025, a large leap from the 25th place for

the Black population and the 14th place for the American Indian population in 1995.

Table 3-4.

Top States for Percent Aged 65 and Over of Total State Population and Increase by Race and

Ethnic Group: 1995 and 2025

Percent Aged 65+ of Total State Population

1995 2025

Increase of Aged 65+

Race/Ethnic Group 1995-2025

State Percent State Percent State Number of

People ('000)

US Total 13 18 28,419

All Florida 19 Florida 26 California 2,961

Non-Hispanic White Florida 22 Florida 32 Florida 1,685

Black District of

Columbia

15 Nevada 17 Florida 395

American Indian,

Eskimo, and Aleut

District of

Columbia

15 West

Virginia

26 Oklahoma 30

Asian and Pacific

Islander

Hawaii 14 Florida 19 California 835

Hispanic Florida 12 Florida 20 California 1,258

The largest increase in the number of elderly people will occur in the most populous

states. California will experience the most growth in the elderly population for the total, Asian

and Pacific Islander, and Hispanic populations. Florida ranks at the top for the non-Hispanic

White and the Black populations. Oklahoma, the state with the largest number of American

Indian elderly in 1995, will undergo the biggest increase to maintain its top position in 2025.

The top states for percent youth (0-14) vary by race/ethnic groups and change over

time.

In comparison to the percent distribution of the elderly population, states with the highest

percent youth vary by race/ethnic groups and change during the 30 years of the state projection

(Table 3-5). Utah was the state with the highest percent youth for the total population and the

non-Hispanic Whites in 1995 and will remain as the top state for the non-Hispanic White

population, but will be replaced by Alaska for the total population. In 2025, Rhode Island will be
51

the top state with percent youth for Black population and American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut

population in 2025, substituting Minnesota and South Dakota, respectively. For Asian and

Pacific Islanders, Wisconsin will keep its 1st place for percent youth. Interestingly, California

will become the top state for percent youth for the Hispanic population.

Not surprisingly, on the other hand, big states such as California and Texas will

experience the largest increase of youth population for most populations. Utah remains the top

state for population growth and percent youth for the non-Hispanic White population.

Table 3-5.

Top States for Percent Aged 0-14 of Total State Population and Increase by Race and Ethnic

Group: 1995 and 2025

Percent Aged 0-14 of Total State Population

1995 2025

Increase of Aged 0-14

Race/Ethnic Group 1995-2025

State Percent State Percent State Number of

People ('000)

US Total 22 20 9,659

All Utah 28 Alaska 27 California 4,697

Non-Hispanic White Utah 28 Utah 23 Utah 64

Black Minnesota 34 Rhode

Island

30 Texas 336

American Indian,

Eskimo, and Aleut

South

Dakota

40 Rhode

Island

39 New Mexico 37

Asian and Pacific

Islander

Wisconsin 38 Wisconsin 32 California 1,202

Hispanic Hawaii 38 California 31 California 3,571
52

IV. METHODOLOGY AND ACCURACY OF PROJECTIONS

The analysis in this report is based on two sets of projection data. For national projection

analysis, this report uses the middle series in the Census Bureau’s Current Population Report

P25-1130, “Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin:

1995 to 2050”, by Jennifer Cheeseman Day (February 1996). For state projection analysis, this

report uses the preferred series in the Census Bureau’s report PPL-47, “Population Projections

for States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025”, by Paul R. Campbell (October

1996). Both sets of projections used the cohort-component method7.

The Cohort-Component Framework

The cohort-component framework requires separate assumptions for each component of

population change: births, deaths, and net migration. Using the cohort-component method, these

components are projected separately for each birth cohort (persons born in a given year). The

base population is advanced each year by using projected survival rates and net immigration by

single year of age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Each year a new birth cohort is added to the

population by applying the projected fertility rates by race and Hispanic origin to the January 1st

female population.

For the national population projections, six sets of data were required: (1) base-year

population; (2) projected fertility rates; (3) projected survival rates; (4) future net immigration

statistics; (5) 1990 inflation/deflation rates; and (6) Armed Forces overseas population.

The beginning population of the national projections was the July 1, 1994, estimate.

These estimates are consistent with the 1990 census count. These results have been modified by

use of the inflation-deflation variant of the cohort-component method. The projected population

was resident population only, excluding the population of Armed Forces overseas.

The birth rates for the national projections were based on 1990 to 1992 fertility rates and

raked by race and Hispanic origin to the number of births for FY1994 (Fiscal Year 1994, from

July 1, 1993 to June 30, 1994). The FY1994 life table was based on National Center for Health

Statistics (NCHS) death data, and was computed for 2005 – a turning point of the series, and

2050 – the end point. The net immigration component was composed of six types of migration,

five which increased the population (immigration) and one that decreased the population

(emigration), and added with a best estimate of net undocumented immigration to the United

States each year. The total net immigration was held constant every year between 1994 and

2050.

For the national population projections, three different assumptions were applied to each

of the components of change. The series using the middle assumption for each component was

designated the “middle series” (as compared to the “highest series” and the “lowest series”).

This report uses the middle series in the national projection data.

 

7

For detailed methodology for the national projection data and state projection data used in this report, refer to

the Census Bureau’s Current Population Report P25-1130, “Population Projections of the United States by Age,

Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2050”, and the Census Bureau’s Report PPL-47, “Population

Projections for States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995 to 2025”.
53

The state population projection’s starting date was July 1, 1994, and the end point was

2025. The starting point estimates were derived from the 1990 enumerated census figures and

annual population estimates which are consistent with the 1990 census count. Small adjustments

were made to State populations by age, sex, and race/ethnic group, so the national population

total is consistent with the middle series of the Census Bureau’s national population projections

for the years 1996 to 2025.

The differentials in fertility were based on 1989 to 1993 births, 1994 estimated

population distributions of females in childbearing ages for states, and 1994 national fertility

data. State differentials in survival rates were based on 1989 to 1993 deaths, 1994 estimated state

populations, and 1994 national life tables. The state projections used Internal Revenue Service

(IRS) data on interstate migration flows, and the foreign-born immigrating population as

enumerated in the 1990 census for international migration for states.

For state population projections, a preferred series using a demographically based time

series was applied along with an alternative series using an economically based set of

assumptions. The two series differed only in the internal migration assumptions. The preferred

series provides stability and long-term inertia and has no need for economic assumptions, and the

alternative series deals with the sensitivity of internal migration to changes in economic

conditions. This report uses the preferred series in the state-level projection data.

Uncertainty of population projections and selection of a range of assumptions

Unforeseen events can rapidly modify the demographic environment. As with any

projection data, due to the uncertainties of the levels and directions of some components, the

actual future population is never identical to the projected population. Also, since the preparation

of the projections used in this report, additional data on births, deaths, and migration by age, race,

and Hispanic origin have become available, which, when incorporated in updated projections,

may lead to some different trends from those indicated by the current projections. Therefore,

precautions should be used when interpreting the results from this report.

Additional Notes

The population projections in the tables have been rounded to the nearest thousand (or

million) without being adjusted to group totals, which are independently rounded. As a result,

the sum of the populations for groups may differ slightly from the total population shown in the

table, due to rounding.

In this report, a dash (-) means zero or rounds to zero. A minus sign preceding a figure

denotes decrease.