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PUBLICATIONS

NISTIR 85-3273-19

(Rev. 4/04) REFERENCE

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - April 2004

Annual Supplement to

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

Laura I. Schultz

Amy S. Rushing

Sieglinde K. Fuller

NISTIR 85-3273-19

ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS

Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709

April 1, 2004 to March 31, 2005

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A; and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New

Federal Residential Buildings, Title 10, CFR, Part 435

Laura I. Schultz

Amy S. Rushing

Sieglinde K. Fuller

Office of Applied Economics

April 2004

Building and Fire Research Laboratory

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899

Sponsored by:

The Federal Energy Management Program

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

U.S. Department of Commerce

Donald L. Evans, Secretary

Technology Administration

Philip J. Bond, Under Secretaryfor Technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Arden L. Bement, Jr., Director

ABSTRACT

This is the April 2004 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses of energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in federal facilities.

It will be effective from April 1, 2004 to March 31, 2005. This publication supports the federal life- cycle costing methodology described in 1 0CFR436A and Circular A-94 byupdating the energy price

projections and discount factors that are described, explained, and illustrated in NIST Handbook 135

( HB 1 35, Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the Federal Energy Management Program.) It supports

private-sector life-cycle cost analysis by updating the energy price indices that are described,

explained, and illustrated in NBS Special Publication 709 (SP 709).
PREFACE

This is the April 2004 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor

the Federal Energy Management Program. The annual supplement provides energy price indices

and discount factors for use with the Federal Energy Management Program's (FEMP) procedures for

life-cycle cost analysis, as established by theU.S. Department ofEnergy (DOE) in Subpart A ofPart

436 of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 43 6A), and amplified in NIST

Handbook 135. These indices and factors are provided as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost

evaluations ofpotential energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in existing

and new federally owned and leased buildings.

The update of the Annual Supplement to Handbook 135 is released on April 1 of each year. Its price

indices and discount factors are calculated with the most recent energy price projections from DOE—

s

Energy Information Administration (ELA) and the most recent discount rates from FEMP and the

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-94. This issue of the Annual Supplement is intended for use from April 1 , 2004 to March 3 1 , 2005. The updated editions of the NIST Building

Life-Cycle Cost (BLCC) programs are released at the same time as this Annual Supplement, for use over the same time period. The software products are discussed below.

At the request of a number of users, a text file of the EIA energy price projections underlying this

Annual Supplement has been made available by NIST. For information on obtaining this file (ENCOST04.txt) contact the authors bye-mail at sieglinde.fuller@nist.gov, amy.rushing@nist.gov,

or laura.schultz@nist.gov.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures, as set forth in 10 CFR 43 6A, are to be followed by

all federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, for evaluating the cost effectiveness of potential

energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in federally owned and leased

buildings. For most other federal LCC analyses Circular A-94 provides the relevant guidelines.

As called for by legislation (Energy Policy and Conservation Act, P.L.94-163, 1975, 92 Stat 3206,

42 USC 8252 et seq), the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided technical

assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life-cycle

costing methods and procedures. This is the second of a three-volume set, which together provide

the methods, data, and computational tools for federal life-cycle cost analysis.

Included in the three-volume set for federal life-cycle cost analysis are the following:

( 1 ) Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the Federal Energy Management Program, National Institute

of Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (1995).

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods ofeconomic analysis

as they are applied to federal decisions, especially those subject to 10 CFR 436A rules. It describes

the required procedures and assumptions, defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic

performance measures, gives examples of federal decision problems and their solutions, explains

how to use the energy price indices and discount factors that are updated in the Annual Supplement

and in the BLCC software, and provides worksheets and other computational aids and instructions

IV
for calculating the required measures. The 1995 edition of Handbook 135 is a complete revision of

the 1987 edition, with updated information on the FEMP LCC requirements of 10 CFR 436A.

(2) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Annual

Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709, National Institute of

Standards and Technology, NISTIR 85-3273.

This report, which is updated annually, provides the current DOE and OMB discount rates, projected

energy price indices, and corresponding discount factors needed to estimate the present value of

future energy and non-energy project-related costs. Request the latest edition when ordering. (This

is the report that you are holding in your hands.)

(3) NIST "Building Life-Cycle Cost” (BLCC) Computer Programs, BLCC5 and BLCC4,

National Institute of Standards and Technology. These programs use as default values the

same discount factors and energy price projections that underly the discount factor tables in

the Annual Supplement. Use versions BLCC 5.2-04 and BLCC 4.9-04 for the period from

April 1, 2004 to March 31, 2005.

The BLCC5 program is a windowed version of the DOS-based BLCC4. It is programmed in Java,

making it platform-independent, and uses an xml file format. The BLCC5 User—s Guide is p* of

its Help system. BLCC 5.2 has five modules, all of them consistent with the life-cycle cost

methodology of 10 CFR 436A, but programmed to include default inputs and nomenclature for

specific uses:

( 1 ) FEMP Analysis, Energy Project

for energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects under the FEMP rules,

agency-funded;

(2) Federal Analysis, Financed Project

for federal projects financed through Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPC) or

Utility Energy Services Contracts (UESC) as authorized by Executive Order 13123 (6/99);

(3) OMB Analysis, Federal Analysis, Project subject to OMB A-94

for projects subject to OMB Circular A-94 (most other federal government construction

projects, but not water resource projects)

(4) MLLCON Analysis, Energy Project

for energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in military construction,

agency-funded;

(5) MILCON Analysis, ECIP Project

for energy and water conservation projects under the Energy Conservation Investment

Program (ECIP).

The remaining user-specific modules now in BLCC4 (i.e., non-energy MILCON analyses and

private-sector analyses including taxes and mortgage financing) will be transferred to BLCC5 in the

future.

v
The BLCC4 program is designed to run on IBM PC and compatible microcomputers in a MS-DOS

environment. The current version is BLCC 4.9-04. BLCC4-associated programs are the following:

• QuickBLCC (version 2.9-04) can be used to set up multiple project alternatives for LCC

analysis in a single input file when only a limited number of inputs are needed.

• DISCOUNT (version 3 .9-04) is a stand-alone program that computes present-value, futurevalue, and annual-value factors for any discount rate and study period, including UPV*

factors needed for federal LCC analyses of energy projects.

• ERATES (version 1 . 1 1 ) is a stand-alone program that generates block-rate, time-of-use-rate,

and demand-rate schedules for electricity prices. It computes monthly and annual electricity costs that can be imported directly into BLCC4 and entered manually into BLCC5.

• EMISS (version 1.00) is a stand-alone program that generates files of local air-pollution

emission coefficients for use with the BLCC4 program.

The NIST BLCC programs provide comprehensive economic analysis capabilities for the evaluation

of proposed capital investments that are expected to reduce the long-term operating costs of

buildings and building systems. They compute the LCC for project alternatives, compare project

alternatives in order to determine which has the lowest LCC, perform annual cash flow analysis, and

compute net savings (NS), savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and adjusted internal rate of return (AIRR) for project alternatives over their designated study period. The BLCC programs can be used

to perform economic analysis of capital investment projects undertaken by federal, state, and local

government agencies, as well as by the private sector (BLCC4). In their application to federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects, BLCC5 and BLCC4 are consistent with NIST

Handbook 135, and the federal life-cycle cost methodology and procedures described in 10 CFR

436A and Circular A-94. In their application to private-sector and non-federal public-sector projects,

they are consistent with ASTM standards for building economics.

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available

to the private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for federal use. In response

to this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship of the U.S.

Department of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector entitled

Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy Decisions, NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The private

sector guide is supported by the data provided here, as well as by the BLCC4 computer program. The

BLCC4 program supersedes the NBSLCC program that is documented in SP 709.

The latest versions of the programs and publications can be downloaded from the DOE/FEMP web

site at: http : //www. eere .energy, gov/femp/program/lifecycle . cfrn

To request diskettes of BLCC4, a CD of BLCC5 and hard copies of the above publications, call the

FEMP Help Desk:

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Clearing House

(800) DOE-EREC (800-363-3732)

or write or fax your request to: U.S. Department of Energy

vi
Federal Energy Management Program, EE-90

1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.

Washington, DC 20585-0121

Fax: (202) 586-3000

BLCC4 may also be purchased from the following vendors:

FlowSoft

5 Oak Forest Court

Saint Charles, MO 63303-6622

(636) 922-FLOW (3569)

http://www.flowsoft.com

Energy Information Services

P.O. Box 381

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819-0381

(802) 748-5148

NIST, under the sponsorship of DOE, conducts three workshops:

The two-day Basic LCC Workshop explains the underlying theory of present-value analysis and

integrates it with the FEMP criteria. The two-day Project-Oriented LCC Workshop builds on the

Basic Workshop, focuses on the use of the BLCC computer programs and applies the LCC

methodology to more complex issues. Further information is available from the FEMP Help Desk

or the DOE/FEMP web site. The third workshop is a two-hour televised course that introduces the

elements of life-cycle analysis of energy and water conservation projects. For information on

registration and downlinking, contact Heather Schoonmaker, Telephone (865) 777-9869, E-mail

trainingsolutions@tds.net.

FEMP-Qualified Instructors are available to conduct LCC workshops on their own account across

the U.S. For a list of instructors call the Office of Applied Economics, NIST BFRL, (301) 975-

6134/6136 or e-mail sieglinde.fuller@nist.gov or amy.rushing@nist.gov.

Three video training films in a series entitled "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings" have been

prepared by NIST. These films include "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing," "Uncertainty and Risk."

and "Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods." The video films and companion workbooks can be

ordered from Video Transfer, Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD 20852, Telephone (30 1

)

881-0270, Fax (301)770-9131.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained from the Federal

Energy Management Program Staff, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and

Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy (www.eere. energy.gov/femp). Please direct

communication to: FEMP, EE 90, U.S. Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW.

Washington, DC 20585.

vii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors wish to thank Mr. Theodore Collins of the Federal Energy Management Program ofthe

U. S . Department ofEnergy (DOE) for his continued support and direction ofthis work. Appreciation

is extended to Paul Kondis and Paul Holtberg, DOE Energy Information Administration, for

providing the energy price projections upon which this report is based. Thanks are also due to Stephen Petersen, who helped prepare this publication, and to J-aime Maynard for her assistance in

producing this document.
CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT iii

PREFACE iv

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS viii

LIST OF TABLES x

ABBREVIATIONS xiii

INTRODUCTION 1

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 3

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs 3

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs 11

B. 1 . FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 14

B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 20

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real) 26

PART H: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS 43

IX
LIST OF TABLES

Page

A-l. SPV factors for finding the present value of future single costs (non-fuel) 6

A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of future annually recurring uniform costs

(non-fuel) 7

A-3a UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, DOE discount rate (3.0%) 8

A-3b UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB short-term discount rate (2.4%) 9

A-3c UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB long-term discount rate (3.5%) 10

Ba-1 . FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (DOE). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,

Vermont) 15

Ba-2. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (DOE). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South

Dakota, Wisconsin) 16

Ba-3. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (DOE). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) 17

Ba-4. FEMP UPV’ discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (DOE). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 18

Ba-5. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0% (DOE). United States average 19

Bb-1. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 2.4% (years 1-10) and 3.5% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New

Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 21

x
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Bb-2. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 2.4% (years 1-10) and 3.5% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 22

Bb-3. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 2.4% (years 1-10) and 3.5% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida,

Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South

Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 23

Bb-4. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 2.4% (years 1-10) and 3.5% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho,

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 24

Bb-5. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and

fuel type. Discount Rate = 2.4% (years 1-10) and 3.5% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular

A-94). United States average 25

Ca- 1 . Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey,

New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 28

Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 30

Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District ofColumbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South

Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 32

Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 34

Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States average 36

Cb-1 . Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end- use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts. New

Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 38

xi
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by enduse sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) . 39

Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by enduse sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of

Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North

Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) . 40

Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by enduse sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado,

Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 41

Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by enduse sector and fuel type. United States average 42

S-l . Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,

Vermont) 45

S-2. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 48

S-3. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) 51

S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 54

S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 57

xii
ABBREVIATIONS

A - Annual amount

A„ - Annual amount at base-date prices

AE02004 - Annual Energy Outlook 2004 (DOE-EIA publication)

ASTM - American Society for Testing and Materials

BLCC - NIST Building Life Cycle Cost computer program

COAL - Coal

d - discount rate DIST - Distillate Oil

DOE - U.S. Department of Energy

e

- price escalation rate (annual rate of price change)

EIA - Energy Information Administration (DOE)

ELEC - Electricity

ESPC - Energy Savings Performance Contract

FEMP - Federal Energy Management Program

FY - Fiscal Year

GASLN - Gasoline

LCC - Life-Cycle Cost

LPG - Liquefied petroleum gas

N - Number of discount periods (in years)

NEMS - National Energy Modeling System

NIST - National Institute of Standards and Technology

NTGAS - Natural Gas

OMB - Office of Management and Budget

RESID - Residual Oil

SPV - Single Present Value (factor)

UESC - Utility Energy Services Contract

UPV - Uniform Present Value (factor)

UPV* - Modified Uniform Present Value (factor)

xiii
-
INTRODUCTION

This report provides tables of present-value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital

investment projects for federal facilities. It also provides energy price indices based on Department of

Energy (DOE) forecasts from 2004 to 2034. The factors and indices presented in this report are useful

for determining the present value of future project-related costs, especially those related to operational

energy costs. Discount factors included in this report are based on two different federal sources: ( 1 ) the

DOE discount rate for projects related to energy conservation, renewable energy resources, and water

conservation; and (2) Office of Management and Budget (OMB) discount rates from Circular A-94 for use with most other capital investment projects in federal facilities.

The DOE discount and inflation rates for 2004 are as follows:

Real rate (excluding general price inflation): 3.0%

Nominal rate (including general price inflation): 4.8%

Implied long-term average rate of inflation: 1.75%

The DOE nominal discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over the 12 months

prior to the preparation of this report. The nominal, or market, rate is converted to a real rate to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach used in most federal life-cycle cost (LCC)

analyses. The method for calculating the real discount rate from the nominal discount rate is described

in 10 CFR436 and uses the projected rate ofgeneral inflation published in the most recent Report of the

President-s-Economic Advisors. The procedure would result in a discount rate for 2004 lower than the

3.0% floor prescribed in 10 CFR 436. Thus the 3.0% floor is used as the real discount rate for FEMP

analyses in 2004. The implied long-term average rate ofinflation has been calculated as 1 .75%. Federal

agencies and contractors to federal agencies are required by 10 CFR 436 to use the DOE discount rates when conducting LCC analyses related to energy conservation, renewable energy resources, and water

conservation projects for federal facilities.

The nominal and real discount rates applicable to general (non-energy or water) capital investments arc published annually in OMB Circular A-94, Appendix C. OMB has specified two basic types ofdiscount

rates: ( 1 ) a discount rate for public investment and regulatory analyses; and (2) a discount rate for cost- effectiveness, lease-purchase, and related analyses. Only discount rates for the second type of analyses

are included in this Annual Supplement, since the primary purpose of this report is to support cost- effectiveness studies related to the design and operation of federal facilities. OMB discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on

Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years. Currently (as of January 2004)

five maturities have been specifically identified by OMB, and are shown here with the corresponding

real interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to OMB Circular A-94:

Maturity: 3-year 5 -year 7-vear 10-vear 30-year

Rate: 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% 2.8% 3.5%

OMB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from these

maturities and rates, based on the study period used in the analysis. Due to limitations on the size of this Annual Supplement, discount factors for only two of these maturities are presented: factors for short- term analyses (up to 10 years) based on the 7-year real rate (2.4%), and factors for long-term analyses

1
(longer than 10 years) based on the 30-year real rate (3.5%). As a result, these discount factors are for approximation purposes only. It is suggested that the NIST Building Life Cycle Cost (BLCC) or DISCOUNT programs be used to compute the present value factors for the discount rate corresponding

to the length of the study period when approximate values are not satisfactory for the project analysis.

(See preface for details on obtaining these programs.)

The energy price indices and corresponding present value factors published in this report are computed

from energy price forecasts provided to NIST by the Department of Energy's Energy Information

Administration (EIA). The EIA energy price forecast used in this report was the most recent available

at the time that this report was prepared. A description ofthe methodology used by EIA to project energy

prices through 2035 is included in section B of this report. DOE has not projected escalation rates for

water prices to be used in the LCC analysis ofwater conservation projects. Water escalation rates should

be obtained from the local water utility when possible.

Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are encouraged to seek energy price projections

from their local utility to use in place ofthe DOE/EIA regional projections, especially when evaluating

alternative fuel types. In such cases the NIST BLCC or DISCOUNT programs can be used to calculate

appropriate "modified uniform present value" (UPV*) factors for use in the LCC analysis of federal

energy conservation or renewable resource projects. Otherwise, 10 CFR 436 requires the use ofthe DOE

energy price forecasts when conducting LCC analyses of such projects. The UPV* factors for energy

costs presented in this report have been precalculated with the DOE forecast data. Thus the use of these

UPV* factors automatically ensures that the DOE forecast data have been included in the analysis.

All of the tables of discount factors contained in this report are based on real discount rates and are therefore intended for use only with economic analyses conducted in constant dollars (in which the

purchasing power of the dollar is held constant). The energy price escalation rates and corresponding

energy price indices contained in this report are also expressed in real terms. If nominal discount rates and current dollar costs (which both include inflation) are used in the LCC analyses of federal projects,

choose the current-dollar-analysis option in the BLCC5 computer program, which uses a nominal

discount rate and adds the rate of general inflation to all dollar amounts.

This report uses the term "present value" instead of "present worth" for the discount factors presented.

The meaning of these two terms is considered to be identical for purposes of economic analysis. This

change in terminology was made to be consistent with the terms used in the American Society for

Testing and Materials (ASTM) compilation of standards on building economics (ASTM Standards on

Building Economics, Third Edition, ASTM, Philadelphia, PA, 1994.)

In all of the tables, the 'end-of-yearTNdiscounting convention is used, that is, all factors and indices are computed to adjust future dollar amounts to present value from the end of the year in which they are expected to occur. The factors and indices in this publication, which include energy price escalation rates

(e.g., UPV* factores and energy price indices), were calculated using April 1, 2004 (the date of this publication) as their base date. However, these factors and indices can be used without adjustment for

the LCC analysis ofprojects with other base dates until the release of the next revision ofthis publication

(April 2005). Adjustment of these factors and indices for differences in the month-specific base date is not generally warranted due to uncertainties in estimating future energy prices.

2
PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs

Table A1presents the single present value (SPV) factors for finding the present value offuture nonfuel, non-annually recurring costs, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values. The

formula for finding the present value (P) of a future cost occurring in year t (Q) is the following:

where d = discount rate, and

t = number of time periods (years) between the present time and the time the cost is incurred.

Table A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV) factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel costs recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the present

value (P) of an annually recurring uniform cost (A) is the following:

where d = discount rate, and

N = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.

Tables A-3(a,b,c) present modified uniform present value (UPV*) factors for finding the present

value of annually recurring non-fuel costs, such as water costs, which are expected to change from

year to year at a constant rate ofchange (or escalation rate) over the study period. The escalation rate can be positive or negative. The formula for finding the present value (P) of an annually recurring

cost at base-date prices (Ao) changing at escalation rate e is the following:

ANALYSIS

P= C.x = Cf x SPV,

’ (i+dy

= AxUPVn

^d — € J y

1 + ^ = Ax UPV# (d*e)

or

P = A0 xN = A*UPVZr (d =e)

where \ = annually recurring cost at base-date prices,

d = discount rate, e = escalation rate, and

N = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.

3
Note: ifthe discount rate is expressed in real terms, i.e., net ofgeneral inflation, then the escalation

rate must also be expressed in real terms. If the discount rate is expressed in nominal terms, i.e., including general inflation, then the escalation rate must also be expressed in nominal terms.

In tables A-l , A-2, and A-3(a,b,c) SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors are provided for both the DOE and

the OMB Circular A-94 real discount rates current as ofthe date ofthis publication. The FEMP SPV,

UPV, and UPV* factors were computed using the DOE discount rate. The FEMP factors are for

finding the present value of future costs associated with federal energy and water conservation

projects and renewable energy projects. The OMB SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors were computed

using the OMB discount rates. The OMB factors are for finding the present value of future costs associated with most other federal projects (except those specifically exempted from OMB Circular

A-94). The DOE and OMB discount rates used in computing these tables are real rates, exclusive

of general price inflation. Thus the resulting discount factors are intended for use with future costs

that are stated in constant dollars.

NOTE: We have added to table A-3a a column of UPV* factors that incorporate an escalation rate of -1.75%, the negative of the inflation rate used to calculate the DOE nominal discount rate for

2004. The UPV* factors in this column can be used to calculate present values of fixed dollar

amounts when performing a constant-dollar analysis. An example might be a fixed contract payment

in an ESPC project. For these fixed amounts, the assumption that in a constant-dollar analysis all cash flows change at the rate of general inflation (so that the differential escalation rate is zero) does

not apply. In real terms, fixed amounts change at a differential rate equal to the negative of the

inflation rate.

Examples of How to Use the Factors:

SPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year

for an energy efficient heating system, go to Table A-l, find the 3.0% SPV factor for year 8 (0.789),

and multiply the factor by the replacement cost as of the base date.

SPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 2.4% SPV factor for year 5 (0.888), and

multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date.

SPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 3.5% SPV factor for year 15 (0.597), and

multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date.

UPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a renewable energy system over 20 years, go to Table A-2, find the 3.0% UPV factor for 20 years

(14.88), and multiply the factor by the annual maintenance cost as of the base date.

UPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office

cleaning over 1 0 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table A-2,

4
find the 2.4% UPV factor for 1 0

years (8.80), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost as of the base date.

UPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office

cleaning over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), got to Table A-2,

find the 3.5% UPV factor for 25 years (16.48), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost

as of the base date.

UPV* (all): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of water usage which are expected to increase at 2% faster than the rate of general inflation over 25 years, find the UPV*

factor from table A-3 (a,b, or c as appropriate) that corresponds to 2% escalation and a 25 year study

period. From table A-3a (3.0% DOE discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 22 .08. Multiply

this factor by the annual water cost as computed at base year prices to determine the present value

of these water costs over the entire 25 years.

UPV* (negative inflation rate): To compute the present value of an annually recurring contract

payment that is fixed over a contract period of 10 years, find the UPV* factor from table A-3a that

corresponds to an escalation of -1.75% and a 10-year time period. From table A-3a (3.0% DOE

discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 7.69. Multiply this factor by the annual contract

payment as ofthe base year to determine the present value ofthese contract payments over the entire

10-year period.

NOTE: UPV factors are generally applied to costs that recur annually in substantially the same

amount. Examples of such costs are routine operating and maintenance costs. UPV* factors are generally applied to costs that recur annually but change from year to year at a constant escalation

rate. Examples of such costs are water usage costs when they increase from year to year. These costs

usually occur every year over the service period of the building life. If there is a planning/design/construction period before the service life begins, during which these annual costs

are not incurred, the appropriate UPV (or UPV*) factor for the service period is the difference

between the UPV (or UPV*) factor for the entire study period and the UPV (or UPV*) factor for the

planning/design/construction period. For example, if the planning/design/construction period is 3

years and the service period is 25 years, for a total study period of28 years, the corresponding UPV

factor (from Table A-2, DOE 3.0% discount rate) is 18.76 - 2.83 = 15.93.

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

5
Table A-l. SPV factors for finding the present value of

future single costs (non-fuel)

Single Present Value (SPV) Factors

Number of

years from

base date

DOE

Discount rate

3.0%

OMB Discount Rates3 Short termb Long Term'

2.4% 3.5%

0.25 0 . 993 0 . 994 0.991

0.50 0.985 0 . 988 0.983

0.75 0 . 978 0 . 982 0 . 975

1 0.971 0 . 977 0 . 966

2 0 . 943 0 . 954 0 . 934

3 0 . 915 0 . 931 0 . 902

4 0 . 888 0.909 0 . 871

5 0 .863 0 . 888 0 . 842

6 0.837 0 .867 0 . 814

7 0.813 0 . 847 0 .786

8 0 .789 0 . 827 0 .759

9 0 .766 0 . 808 0 .734

10 0 .744 0.789 0.709

11 0 . 722 0 . 685

12 0 .701 0 . 662

13 0 . 681 0 . 639

14 0 . 661 0 . 618

15 0 . 642 0 .597

16 0 . 623 0 . 577

17 0 . 605 0 . 557

18 0 . 587 0.538

19 0 . 570 0 . 520

20 0 . 554 0 . 503

21 0 . 538 0.486

22 0 . 522 0 .469

23 0 . 507 0 . 453

24 0.492 0 . 438

25 0 . 478 0 . 423

26 0.464 0 .409

27 0 .450 0 . 395

28 0 .437 0.382

29 0 . 424 0.369

30 0 .412 0 . 356

aOMB discount rates as of February 2004.

bShort-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period.

cLong-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.

6
Table A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of annually

recurring uniform costs (non-fuel)

Uniform Present Value (UPV) Factors

Number of DOE OMB Discount Rates 3 years from Discount rate Short term Long Term0 base date 3 . 0% 2 . 4% 3.5%

1 0 . 97 0 . 98 0 . 97

2 1 . 91 1 . 93 1 . 90

3 2 . 83 2 .86 2 . 80

4 3.72 3 . 77 3 . 67

5 4 .58 4 . 66 4 . 52

6 5 .42 5 . 53 5 . 33

7 6.23 6.37 6.11

8 7 . 02 7.20 6.87

9 7 .79 8 .01 7 . 61

10 8.53 8 . 80 8 . 32

11 9.25 9.00

12 9.95 9.66

13 10 . 63 10 . 30

14 11.30 10 . 92

15 11 . 94 11 . 52

16 12.56 12 .09

17 13 . 17 12 . 65

18 13.75 13 .19

19 14 . 32 13 .71

20 14.88 14.21

21 15 . 42 14 .70

22 15 . 94 15 . 17

23 16.44 15 . 62

24 16 . 94 16.06

25 17 .41 16.48

26 17 . 88 16.89

27 18.33 17.29

28 18.76 17 . 67

29 19.19 18 . 04

30 19.60 18.39

aOMB discount rates as of February 2004.

bShort-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period.

''Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.

7
Table

A-3a.

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factors

for

finding

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present

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of

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recurring

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changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate,

DOE

discount

rate.

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8
Table

A-3b.

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factors

for

finding

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present

value

of

annually

recurring

amounts

changing

ata

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rate,

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short-term

discount

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A-3c.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

amounts

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate,

OMB

long-term

discount

rate.

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CO

10

‘OMB

discount

rate

as

ofFebruary

2004.

Long-term

discount

rate

based

on

OMB

discount

rate

for

30-year

study

period.
B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs

This section presents FEMP and OMB modified uniform present value (UPV*) discount factors for

calculating the present value of energy usage for federal projects. Factors are provided for the four major

Census regions and for the overall United States. The factors are modified in the sense that they incorporate

energy price escalation rates based on future energy prices projected by DOE for the years 2004-2034.

There are two sets of UPV* tables: the "Ba" tables present FEMP UPV* factors based on the DOE

discount rate (3.0% real), and the "Bb" tables present OMB UPV* factors based on two OMB discount

rates (2.4% real for short-term study periods of 1 to 10 years, 3.5% real for long-term study periods of 1

1

to 30 years). The underlying energy price indices for the years 2004 to 2034 on which these UPV*

calculations are based are shown in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5. The corresponding average energy price

escalation rates for selected time intervals between 2004 and 2034 are shown in tables Cb-1 through Cb-5.

Energy Price Projections

The FEMP and OMB UPV* factors incorporate energy price escalation rates computed from future energy

prices projected by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy.

Energy prices through 2025 were generated by EIA using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

and published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2004' (AE02004). At the request ofFEMP, EIA extrapolated

energy prices from 2026 to 2035 based on selected growth rates from the AEO 2004 projections.

NEMS is an energy market model designed to project the impacts of alternative energy policies or assumptions on U.S. energy markets. NEMS produces projections of the U.S. energy future, given current

laws and policies and other key assumptions, including macroeconomic indicators from Data Resources,

Inc., the production policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the size of the

economically recoverable resource base for fossil fuels, and the rate ofdevelopment and penetration ofnew

technologies. NEMS balances energy supply and demands with modules representing primary fuel supply,

end-use demand for four sectors, and conversion of energy by refineries and electricity generators.

Macroeconomic and international oil modules reflect the impacts of energy prices, production, and

consumption on world oil markets and the economy.

The ELA energy price projections presented in this report, like those ofother forecasters, are dependent on

the data, methodologies, and specific assumptions used in their development. Many of the assumptions

concerning the future cannot be known with any degree of certainty. Thus, the projections are not

statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the particular assumptions and

methodologies used. Although EIA has endeavored to make these forecasts as objective, reliable, and

useful as possible, these projections should serve as an adjunct to, not a substitute for, the analytical

process. The AE02004 was prepared by EIA as required under statute by federal legislation. The price

projections to 2034 were prepared in accordance with a Service Request from the Federal Energy

Management Program.

1 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2004, DOE/EIA-0383(2004), January 2004.

11
Upy* Calculation Method

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

p = A0 ^fl ^~r = AxUP7;

7^(1 + dy

where A0

tN

1

( 2004+0

d

annual cost of energy as of the base date (April 1, 2004);

index used to designate the year of energy usage;

number of periods, e.g., years, over which energy costs or savings accrue; projected average fuel price index2 given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

for the year 2004+t (where I2004 = 1.00); and

the real discount rate.

This formula is based on end-of-year energy prices and end-of-year discounting. Note that annual energy

costs as of the base date of the LCC analysis (Aq, to be supplied by the analyst) should reflect the current

energy price schedule as of that date, which may not be the same as the energy price itself on that date.3 That is, the annual energy cost should reflect summer-winter rate differences, time-of-use rates, block rates considerations, and demand charges (as appropriate) anticipated to be in effect that year. If energy and

demand costs are calculated separately (as is sometimes done for electricity), the UPV* factor should be

applied to both costs.

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. Figure B1

presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census regions do not

include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the

Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data that are "reasonable under the

circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for guidance.

2 For greater precision, the UPV* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using the unrounded form

of the indices given in Tables Ca- 1 through Ca-5.

’While the UPV* factors provided in this publication were computed using energy price indices that correspond to energy prices as of April 1 in the current and future years, the analyst is encouraged to use for determining A0 the energy

prices prevailing as of the base date of the LCC analysis for the project evaluated.

12
ca-3

.£f u.

13

Source:

U.S.

Census

Bureau
B.l.FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value (FEMP UPV*) factors presented in the "Ba" tables, based on the current DOE discount rate (3.0%), are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings

accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of federal energy conservation

and renewable energy projects. Factors are reported in the "Ba" tables for 30 years to accommodate a planning/design/construction period of up to 5 years. (See "Examples of How to Use FEMP UPV*

Factors" below for instructions on use with planning/design/construction periods.)

These factors apply only to annual energy usage or energy savings that are assumed to be the same each

year over the service period. The NIST BLCC computer program can compute the present value ofenergy

usage and savings that are not the same in each year.

Examples of How to Use the FEMP UPV* Factors:

FEMP UPV*, no planning/design/construction period: To compute the present value of heating with

natural gas over 25 years in a federal office building in New Mexico, go to Table Ba-4, find the FEMP

UPV* factor for commercial natural gas for 25 years (16.65), and multiply this factor by the annual

heating cost at base-date natural gas prices.

FEMP UPV*, with planning/design/construction period: To compute a present value factor for a service

period following a planning/design/construction period (1) find the FEMP UPV* factor for the combined

length of the planning/design/construction period and the service period (not to exceed 30 years), and (2)

subtract from (1) the FEMP UPV* factor for the planning/design/ construction period alone. The

difference is the FEMP UPV* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings actually accrue. For

example, suppose a new federal office building in New York is being evaluated with several energy

conserving design options. It is expected to have a planning/design/construction period of 5 years, after which it will be occupied for 25 years. To compute the present value of natural gas costs over 25 years

of occupancy, go to Table Ba-1 and find the FEMP UPV* factors for commercial natural gas for 5 years

(4.1 1) and for 30 years (18.15). The difference (14.04) is the FEMP UPV* factor for natural gas costs over 25 years, beginning 5 years after the base date. Multiply 1 4.04 by the annual natural gas cost at basedate prices (not occupancy-date prices) to calculate the present value of natural gas costs over the entire

25-year occupancy period.

14
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15

Note:

UP

V*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.)
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r—1

P»

VO

p~

x

—1

OO

in

oo o

03 ou

(/)

-rH 2 oc - o

CJ

DC 1 rH

x—1rH i—1

1-1

x

—1 i—i

rH i—i X—1

*"*

r—1

1-1 I—1

rHr—1rH o -r4 03 i oo o oo m 03 o o 03 in o r- 03 CM CM o VO o VO p- VO in OO 03 OO CM rH -V 4-» 1 oo r- CM 03 p' O p* o VO CM 03 in ! l p* CM 00 CO 00 co 00 00 00 CM P' r—1

VO

O

CJ rH (4) CO i w

Urn

M 03 •H l o X 1 CM CO CO in VO VO p* 00 00 03 03 o * 1 1—1CM CM CO CO in 14) VO VO P~ P- 00

HX

a l X

—1 * 1 t—1 X—1 1—1 r

—1 x

—1 r

—1

1-1 1-1

r—1

rH

r—1 r

—1 r—1rH

-*-• CM Q) 2 i in IT)

X

—1

CO CO rH p- CM VO o CM

O CM in VO VO oo o 00 o o 03 P* 03 CO VO c C o i O) OO p in 00 x—1

oo VO CO rH 00m CM 00 in rH P* CO 03 in o m rH VOO in o 03 CO 3 o - Q) 1 Ou

V)

*H -H i—i i o rH CM CO LO in VO p* 00 00 03O o rH CM CM CO OO ^r l/) in VO VO P* p- oo oo OO 03

tT>U

<J Po

CJ i x—1

rH rHx

—1 i—1

rH

r—1 X—1

rHr—1 r—1rH rHr—1 x—1rH 5

CO CO CO P -H *>

CO 2 c CO i oo O'* CM 1—1

p* 03 03 03 00 VO o in

m CMO VO o CM CO CM t—1P* CO OO

x

—1

00 in in

cu 03 i cr> p- VO •sT rH 00 in CM 03 VO CO o VO CM 00 o in rH VO i—1

VO

r—1 m

O ^r 03 CO P' i—i

CJ CJ i -P i o i—i

CM CO in VO VO p- 00 03 03 o o rH <NJ CM 00 CO •nT *=T

m LO VO VO VO p' p~ oo

—» 2 i X—1 X

—1 x—1

rHT—1 x

—1 r—1 r

—1 r—1 «—i r—1

1-1 i—i x

—1 r

—1 <—i t—i

s! i CO 03 in 00

O

X 1 O p* CO 00 1—1

CO ^r CO o P- rH

m P~ 00 P~ VO CO 00 CO VO 03 o o M CJ

cu i CO VO CO *—1

00 VO CO

O VO CO 03 VO CM 00 o m

x

—1

VO

r—1

VO rH VOr—1

in o GO CO p*

w

Eh i O

X 1 CM CO CO in VO VO p- p* 00 03 03O 1—1 X

—1

CM CM 00 CO in in VO VO VO p“ p~

CJQ

XI i X

—1 x—1 I—l

rHX l rHr—1 t—1 r—1 X

—1

rH t—1 X

—1

rH rHX 1 • M i i—1

00 CM CO CM oo CO in VOm CM 00 CO 00 rH CM CM

x

—1p- CM VO 00 03 03 OO

m CM P* rH i CJ

4-> CO i1

O'* p* VO CM 03 P*X

—1

00 inX 1 00 rH P* CO 03

O in o m

O LO o in 03 00 53 CJ -H i o rH CM 00 H1 in VO p- p- oo 03 03 o i—1 X—1

CM CM COm in VO VO p- p- P* oo 00 ca a i rH x—1 1—1

rHx—1rHr—1 x—1 X l rHr—1 i—1 X

—1

rH t—1

rH rH o i VO 00 p 1—1

CO *—iVO

X

—1

00 CO 03 P* CO CD VO CM r- o CM CMx—l

OO 03 00 in P- 4=) o

CD —i i O'* 00

p VO CM o p- in CM 03 VO CM 03 in *—1

P- CO 03 o in

Om 03 00 co px

—1

53 i O 1—1

CM CO in VO VO p* oo 00 03O o rH CM CM OO 00 in in VO VO VO p- P“ 00 oo 03

H CJ i i—1 rH

X—1rH *—1rH

r—1 i—i r—1 rHr

—1 i—1 r—1 i—i i—1 2 1 x—1 CM CO m VO p* oo 03 o CM CO m VO p* 00 03 o x—l

CM 00 in VO P~ 00 03

O

rH rH *1 X 1 <—i ii rH rHx

—1 r—1 CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM co

16

Note:

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.)
Table

Ba-3.

FEMP

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type

iHCMco*3’invor~-cocPOxHCMCO'^rinvor-aocPOxHCMoo'^rinvor-~aocPo

r—I i—I t—I i—I H f-H H xH H x—I CM CM CM CM (M C\1 CM CM CM C\J CO

4Jc

0o

u

0

CU

CO C 1 in CP o o vo o CM I

1 00 ro vo VO in x—

1

VO CP o o r~~ ro oo X 1 CM ro CM CP vo X 1 m 00 <

i—1 1 cp 00 oo r~~ in CM o r- in CM CP vo ro CP m CM 00 ro CP o m o m CP CP co r~ 2 0 1 o X 1 CM ro m vo r- r- 00 CP CP o X 1 X—

1

CM ro ro *=r m vo VO r- r-~ oo CO CP <p o 1

i—

i

I

1 X 1 X 1 i—

i

X—

1

X 1 X 1 X—

1

x1 X 1 X—

1

I

1 x1 X

1

1 m 00 00 00 o 00 r~ 00 r- oo o o 00 m CP CM ro X 1 oo CP CM m vo VO in rH0

O

1 CP 00 p** VO ro o 00 m CM CP vo CM CP m o vo X 1 r- CM CM vo X 1 in O vT 00 CM vo

1 o X 1 CM CO in vo vo r* 00 00 CP O o X 1 CM CM CO CO m m vo vo r- r~~ r- 00 00

«. *» CJ 1 i—

1

X 1 I—

1

X 1 X 1 i—

1

X 1 i1 x—

1

X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 i—

i

i—

i

X 1 X 1 i—

i

0

•H c

O' •H 0 1 vo CD CM VO vo VO r-~ CP i—

i

m m CM r~ X 1 vo CP CP r- vT o *vT r- oo co oo VO CM 00

3-1 i

1 0 1 CO VO CM CP vo ro o r- m CM CP vo ro CP vo CM 00 o VO CM r- CM r" CM r- CM x—

1

o O o 1 0 34 4-> 1 o X 1 CM ro CO LO vo vo r- 00 oo CP o o I—

1

CM CM ro in m vo vo r- r~" 00 00 O'* O 0o ccH

z 1 I—

1

X—

1

X 1 x—

1

x—

1

i—

i

X 1 x—

i

X 1 X 1 X—

1

X 1 i—

i

X 1 i—

1

xH X—

1

0 JC CO T3 1 o VO i—

1

in CO i—

1

vo o CM ro CM o m o ro in m CM 00 ro r~- o CM CM CM i—

1

00 m

TJ 4J Q

•H 1 CP VO CM o 00 in ro o r- X 1 p" "sT o VO CM 00 <p in o vo X 1 VO X—

1

VO o m

•H 3 0 1 34 O 0 1 o i—

i

CM ro in in vo r- 00 00 O't o o xH CM CM ro ro m vo vo r~~ r- oo 00 O'! O'! O co CC 1 X—

1

X 1 x—

1

X 1 I—

1

i—

i

x—

1

x—

1

x—

1

X—

1

x—

1

x—

1

x—

1

i—

i

X1 X i I—

1

X 1

Ch

1 cp CM CO O vo CP X 1 X—1 CP in o *^r r- o X 1 CM X 1 oo CP CM LO m ro i—i r- CM vo CP £ 4-> 1 oo r~ in co o m CM CO m CM CO x—1 ro CP o in X 1 vo i—

1

vo X 1 vo o in CP ro O CO 1 •H JZ -rH 1 o xH CM ro in VO vo 00 CO <y\ o o X 1 X 1 CM ro ro m in vo vo r- r~ 00 f

05 —

rH 0 Q 1

X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X

1 X 1 X1 X 1 X 1 X—

1

x—

1

X 1 i—

i

x—

1

xH 3 -V -H —

1

O C 1 VO OO r~ 00 o o CP vo CM VO o X 1 X 1 oo ^r CP X 1 CM x—

1

CP m o vo vo vo xH r- o •H U 1 CP 00 r- VO KT ro rH 00 vo rH CP vo ro CP vo CM CP m x—

1

vo CM 00 CO oo co oo ro OC CM

CJ - CP 0 1 0 34 «

i 1 o I—

1

CM CO *sr in VO vo 00 CP CP o X 1 X 1 CM ro ro in m vo vo r"- r- CO oo CP CP o

M-4 C -H CJ 1 X—1 xH X—

1

X 1 X—

1

X—

1

X 1 i—i X—

1

X—

1

I—

1

rH i—i X 1 X 1 X—

1

X 1 CM O -H > <—

H

4-J O 4-> U 34 W

-H 0 (D U CJ s

4-) v) x: - -H 4-) 03 Q 34 -H O C

«* 2 -H 0) CJ> H ^ 34

03 -H -H 5 a >

oj a i—I *H ^

<D CO (0 Q n 03 -H X

- CO CD

CO CO Eh

03 *H

CO 2 - C Q)

03 - CD M T3 (n

34 C CO <00H C

- >1 c 0 34 0

£)

03 -

«—I 03 < C

03 -H

ro co

03 O

^ z <M

u

* 3

H CO § 0) o

* o

4-) CO -HQ

r-oor-CMcocMCPcO'=TCOTHLnoooovocoooxHCMCMx—lao^rcproLnvor-'VO cp<pcovoincoxHoovocoor^cocPLnrHr-~cMaocoaocor''CMvOxHLn<Pcor^

xH["-~OOVOCOCO(PCPaO[^-^rCOrHCMCMvHOO'^rCOOiHOOOLnxHVDCPCMrO cPr-vo’^rxHoomcMCPvoooovococPinTHVOCMr^cooocor-'CMr^xHino^r

or-CMvor-vo^’0^’VOr''VO*^roinaoOxHOoo'3, 0'=rr'iPoooovofO cpr'~vo^rcMOoovoooor-'^rrHao''^rc3r'-PO<p^rovOrHCOxHr-CMvOiHVO

CP CNJ x—I 00 CO VO [ t ^ o LO oo x—I ^ LO LO ^3* CM 00 CM ld r— CD 00 VO o to o\ ro cDor'LOCsjor^^rt-HooLOrHr'^rovocNjoo^ra^LDOLOOLnoLOO^TCoro

OxHCMro^^rinvovo[^oooo<PooxHxHCMCMco^r'^rininvovor-r'-r-oo

X I X I t I X I X—I X I I I X I X I X I X I I—I X—I X 1 I I X I X—

I

'vDr-'^raACMCNor'-ror^Ox—ior^ror'-o'>oa'>'X>c\jr^o(\iro(\jor-CNr'~ cpaor-Ln*:^rcMor'-LncMor~'^'or'~rocpvOxHr-ooao^cp^rcp^TcocorC 3 O O

-H >3

CX> 0 -

(X >i

CO U

3 3

CO 4-4 c c

0 0

CJ Z

no'TiocM^vD^^inc\ico(MroroH(nin(^HCs]H(rtvD(M^(ri(Nfr)C'j O^CDVD'T(^|^VDrOO^'70^fOO^lnO^H^(M^H^Hln(n^O^(M

o.-HCMro^r'^rLnvor'--r'aocPCPooxHCMCMroro'^r'^rLnLnvovovo[— r-ao

X I X—I X—I X—I I I X I I—I I I X—| X 1 I I I I T—| X—I I—| |—I I I ooox-Hor'CMmr-r-LDCNjcorHro^rox-ir'x-H'^T'^or'VorooLOONCN^'^r oohinrooa)ir)(M(^^rn^^(NiCD'TOinH'DHVDH^Hincn'TOO(Nj

Ox—icMco'vr'vrinvovor-'OoaocPooxHCMCMcoro ,=r''3, ininvovovor''rs-'00

x I X—I X I X—I I I I I X—I X I X I X 1 X I X I I

| I I I—| rH I—

I

(\|0'7^^(Y)(Tl(M-7fOHCOrOhO(NCMHCOrOhOHHOa)'T^rOV£) cPcovo'^rcMor-LncMCPvocMCPLncMco^roinxHVOCMr''-(Mr'rHvooincp

OrHCMrO'^rLOinvor-r--oocp<POxHxHCMooro^r^ininvovor~r~aooooo

«—I '—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I *-H i—I i—I rH rH vooovocM^’^omcpcDoao^rcooocPvocMinaocPcovococPcovor-oo cpaor-vO'^rcMor-^rcNCPLncMaoLnrHvocMCorococoaocoaocMr'- h 10 OxHo<jro^rLno'£>r'~aoooa'>ooxHc\jcMroro'3, ^rir)LnvDvop-r-aooooo

Z I xHCMco^, invor-oo<POxHCMoo'=rmvor^oocPo.HCMco^rinvor'‘ 00 <Po HxHHx—IxHHHxHHxH CM CM CM C\l CM <\J CNJ CM CM CM CO

17

Note

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(Sec p

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.)
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a* .3C334. 0"Mu

41v>

a*tn31 T53O

.33# o

fau

V>4> 4» 4» *ca4) .34. ,o-o4) V53

V)4. o3

fa304* 5*>

fafa

faS

fa

farf1 ca CO

-2i

C3 H

CdoQ

-PC

(Dap

<yao

oo

a> -p

«3 a:

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•rH Q

M

PI<M

cc

Eh

CODQ2M

PIcM

CJ

cc; wooaMH2

CJaM

CO

co

a; 2 1 rH CM 00 in CD

p CD Ot o t—iCM oo in ID

p OO Ot o \—i

CM 00m CD

p 00 OtO t—i i—1 I—1 i—i <—1 i—i X—1 t—1

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM 00

C 1 Ot CD CDm i—i m CD o CD ID oo Ot CMm CDm OOO

m

CT\ t 1 CM CM o p CM i—1

03

«5 1 at Ot Ot CO

p ID in 00 i—1

Ot

p »—1

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rH CM 00 OO

mm CD CDpp oo CO at Ot o O 1 1 1 t 1 i—1 i—i 5—1 t—1

t—1 i—i i—i t—1 i—1 i—i i—i \—i t 1 i—i t 1 CM CM 1 in p CD oo CD 00 p oo CO rH CM O p oo CD OO cr> oo m o vT CD r- CD X 1 CD o in i—1

<uo 1 at 00

p CD CM o 00

m oo o P 00 o CD CM 00 o CD 1—1

CD i—iCD i—i

CD

O in <J\ 00 1 o t—1

CM OOm CD CD

p CO at Ot o x

—1rH CM CM oo inm CD CD p* r- 00 00 00 o\

u 1 t—1 t—1rH t—i X

—1 X—1 X—1 X

—1 1—1 i—1 i—1 i—i i—i i—1 1—1 X

—1

CO 1 i—i p I—1

CM Ot at 00 CM in CD inx—1

CD o CD p“ in CM P* i—1

oo in in 00

X

—1

00 o

-p 1 Ot

p CD CM at 0" CM at P 1—100 in rH oo

O CD CM 00 00 <T> <Tv vT o\ 00 1 o <—i

CM 00 •vT in CDpp OO Ot o o rH CM CM OO inm CD CD r- r~~ OO 00 cr> O'. 1 1-1 «—i x—1 x—1 x—1 x—1

rH i—1i—i i—1 X

—1 i—i i—i 1—1 i—i 1—1 V 1 Ot m O CM CM 5 1 00 00 CD 00 OO O' CTt CD 00 00 r- 'cr o m <J\ CM oo oo OO 1—1

00 in

•rHCO

(D 1 00 O' CD CM o p in CM Ot CD oo o CD CO CT> in

x

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r- 00 CT\ in o LO o in cr> 1 O rH CM OO m m CD O' p OO at o O i—1 X 1 CM OO 00 m in CD p~ P~ 00 00 oo <Ti

a 1 rH »—1

tHx

—1 x—1 x—1 x—1 x

—1 X 1 rH i—i x

—1 x

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OO CM o CD o CM CM o p on 00 CM oo

x

—1

oo 00 00 rH CM oo CM o p oo 00

-p

CO

-rH 1 Ot

p CD CM o pm CM ot CD CM O'! in CM 00 'crO CD 1—1r- CM 00 oo 00 00 oo CMp 1 o tH CM oo m m CD p p 00 at o\ o x—1 1—1

CM OO OO inm CD CD [— p- 00 oo cr.

a 1 X

—1 x—1 x—1 x—1 X 1 H i—i X

—1 i—i X—1 1—1 i—1

1—1 1—1 1—1 x

—1 1 CO OO in CD m o CM o CM «—i

OO oom LO o 00 P- in CM r- CM in P- 00 00 CD o

a) rH 1 Ot at 00

p CDm oo rH 00m i—1 oo o CD CM CM r-~ CM r- CM CD i—1 in O'* oop i—1 in 1 o »

i CM oo <3* m CD p O' 00 Ot Ot o 1—1 rH CM CM OO oo in m CD CD CD p- p 00 00

U 1 i

i I—1 X 1 X

—1 i-H i—i

x

—1 i—i i

i i—i i—1 ii i—1 1—1 1—1 1—1iH 1 m 00 P 00 p at oo m at CM CM O p rH in in CM 00 CM m in oo O CD o CD p i—1 03O 1 O'* 00 P CD CM o 00 in OO O P oo O CD CM 00 at in o in o m o at oo P l—1 1 o X 1 CM 00 in CD CD p OO at at o i—1 •—i CM CM 00 00 m in CD CD p p p oo 00 at

L> 1 i—i x

—1 i—i

rH i—i i—i X 1 X

—1 i—i i—i iH iH 1—1

iH iH

x

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1-1 t—i

CO 1 O 00X 1 p o oo ^r in CM 00 00 *3* oo CM 00

p 00 at 00 in CM P CD

03 O

4-) 1 at 00 P in oo o oo in CM at CD oo at CD CM 00

O in i—i

CD iH CD iH CD t—1in o OO 1 o T 1 CM oo in in CD P p oo at at O rH X 1 CM 00 00 m LO CD CD P p oo 00 00 2 1 i—1 i—1 1—1 x—1 i—l i—i

tH *—i X l 1—1tH iHX 1 X

—1 x—1

1-1

T3 1 p 1—1

CO CM at

p at at a'

m o cT P at at P m i—)

CD o CM CM at CD t—1

•H

(0

Q) 1 00 P in oo i—1

00 CD 00 o p «-* 00

O CD CM 00

O

m i—i

CD i—1CD tH CD o in o 1 o <—1

CM oo in CD

pp oo at at

O iH i—iCM CM oo

m in CD CD P P oo 00 at

£X 1 i-H i—1

i—i 1—1i—1rH rH i—IrH rH i—1

iH t—1 i—1 t—i X

—1 1 o m at i-H O p oo p 00 00 CD oo at 00 CD oo at P in x—1 P rH m in CM at in at P

CO -H 1 at

p LO CM atp 1—100 LO CM 00 in i—1 p oo atm i—1

CD CM

p CMp CM P tH CD o 1 o r—|

CM oom CDp

p OO at at o i—1 rH CM CM oo

m in CD CD P P OO CO at

a 1 i—i i—1 l—1 i—i i—i i—iiH i—IiHX 1 X—1 i—i i—1 tH tH t—i t—i 1 CD 00 p oo P p oo CD CM CD 00 oo CD oo P o X—1 x—1 at CD CM CD at o tH O OO o in o

Q) i—i 1 at 00

p CD CM o P O CD CM 00 at in o in at at OO

p CM CD o OOp t—1 1 o tH CM oo in CD CD p 00 00 at at o o i—i

CM CM CM oo oo in in CD CD CDpp

w 1 i—i *

i i—i X—1 rH rH iHx—1 <i i—i x

—1 H

X—1 x

—1 tH t—1 t

i

(/) 1 m LO i—1

0O t—1 m oo 00 oopO CD CD 00O CD 1—1

in CM at LO at OOm CD CD

fC CD

4J 1 at 00 P m oo o p «-* 00 in CM 00

O CD CM P oo 00 oo 00 00

p CM CD

X

—1

in at 00 1 o tH CM oo m in CD p p CO at at o X—1 i—1

CM CM oo oo .LOm CD CDppp 00 2 1 t—1 t—1 i—1

tH t—1 1—1

rH

X—1 t—i t—1 T—1 t—1tH tH t—1 1 p CD 00 p at at at P oo 00 oo CD 00 at at P LO tH CD o oo in CD CD CM 00 at CM 1 p tH p oo at in tH p CM oo oo 00 00 00 00 00 OO P CM CD o 00 CM CD at 00 CD O

12 1 o tH CM CM oo oo in in CD CD

pp oo oo at at o O rH t—1

CM CM CM oo OO oo in i—1 1 x—1 t—1

rHx—1 x—1 x—1 i—l ! 1 t—1 t—i x

—1 t—i I 00 CO i—1

CD at at oo 00 t—1

CM tH at ^r at CM ^r OO CM at 00 t—1CM OO t—1

at CD

m

-PW

•H 1 at 00 P m oo tH at

p CM at CD CM at in CM 00 ^r

O in

X 1 CD CM P CM P i—i

CD t—i

in I o rH CM oo in in CD p 00 oo at o o x—1

CM CM oo LO in CD CD P P 00 00 at at

Q 1 t—i

tH tH t—1 T 1 i—itH tH tH t—i

rH i—1 t—1

tH t—i t—1 i—i

1-1 l oo CM CM oo X—1 o CD at at p oo p O O CD •^r at 00 m oo i—1

CD t—1CD CD in 00

U

a) i—i l at at 00

p in ^r CM at CD CO o p 00 o CD

X—1 p CM 00 oo 00 00 00 CM P tH in at oop i o rH CM 00 in CD CD p 00 at at o 1—1

rH CM CM oo oo "^r in in CD CD P p

p 00 00

u l 1-1 tH rH

x—1

tH t—1 t—itH rHx—1

tH tH i—itH t—itH 2 l i—i

CM oo in CDp oo at o i—iCM oo in CO P OO at o tH CM OO ^T in CD

p 00 atO

tH tHX 1 t—1 t—itH tH i—1 1—1 t—i

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM 00

18

Note:

UPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.)
Table

Ba-5.

FEMP

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type

Discount

Rate =

3.0

percent

(DOE) z 1 1—t

C\J CO xT in in p~ 00 OS o X

—1 CM CO

m in p~ oo os o x

—1

CM CO *rm in r- 00 OS o H

(Y,

H

X 1 i—i t—i i—i i—i x

—1 X 1 X—1

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

O

04

C/5

C 1 in

O C\J CM o in p- p~

m i—1

in in CMX 1 CM CMX

—1

OO CO p- OS

X

—1 o os in CM P* o <

t—i 1 OS OS 00 p~ in CM o oo in CO o r- o p~ CO OS

m

O in

X

—1

in CM pX 1 in

X

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19

Note

UPV*

factors

arc

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to 5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.)
B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The OMB Modified Uniform Present Value (OMB UPV*) factors presented in the "Bb" tables,

based on the current OMB discount rates (2.4% short term and 3.5% long term), are for calculating

the present value of energy costs accruing over 1 to 30 years when conducting a life-cycle cost analysis of a federal project not explicitly related to energy or water conservation or renewable

resources. Factors are reported in the "Bb" tables for 30 years. These factors apply only to annual

energy usage that is assumed to be the same each year over the service period. The NIST BLCC

computer program can compute the present value of energy usage and savings that are not the same

in each year.

Examples of How to Use the OMB UPV* Factors:

OMB UPV* (OMB discount rate): To compute the present value over 30 years of electricity costs associated with the occupancy ofa federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not

a specific consideration in the LCC analysis), go to Table Bb-2, find the OMB UPV* factor for

commercial electricity for 30 years (18.14), and multiply this factor by the annual electricity cost in

base-date dollars.

NOTE: Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate) is usually

different for years 1 to 10 than for years 11 to 30, these factors cannot be used with a planning/

design/construction period as shown above for the Ba tables (DOE discount rate). Use the BLCC or DISCOUNT computer program for this purpose. For further explanation ofthe use ofUPV* factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

20
Table

Bb-1.

OMB

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type

Discount

Rate

=

2.4%

(years

1-10)

and

3.5%

(years

11-30),

(OMB

Circular

A-94*)

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discount

rate

as

of

February

2004.

See

p.

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.
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D r- 00 00 oo

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1—1 05 4-> o 0 0 D C O

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u 05 CQ

a 00 _ l CD o H o oo •^r O' 00 r- *=T CO r- r" CD CO r* CD

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t-H i—1iH 1—1 i—1 i—I 1—1 i—i i—1rH rH i—i 1—1 i—1

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m oo o CO CO 00 CO CD 00 CD r- CD CO uo P- r" UO CO CD in

T5

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X 1 r- CO CD

O uo o uo o uo CD ST 00 CM CD o P i—i C O o 1 o C 05 4-> l O i—i

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4> 0 -rH T5

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D CD

O CD o «-H CD CD in CM r- i—1

uo uo *^r CM 00 co P~

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O OO -o 0 UO 00 ll o i—i

CM oo inD r* oo oo oo CD

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V)

S- 0M0

-HOC 2

03 oo

CL 1l oo «—i »—i

at CD

O oo 00 CM CMO OO i—i

in i—1 O CO i—1

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rH

CO o CD i—1 O i—1

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rH

CD i—1

CD i—1

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CM i—1

CD o a) 4-> l oo r- in CM O 00 in CM CD D 00 o in r- CM r- CM r- CM CD UO CD CO r- 1—1

UO 00 4—»

>i >—1 0 0 I " M 05 -H 1 o T 1 CM oo uo

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W 1 rH rH t-H i—1 rH rH rH i—1 i—1 1—1 rH i—1 i—1 rH rH i—1 rH

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x—1 in p~ 00 P- U0 CM 00

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i CM CM CO CO ^r U) U3 CD CD CD P- P P W l i—i i

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i t-H i-H i—1 i—i

iH i—1 CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

22

'OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

2004.

See

p.

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.
Table

Bb-3.

OMB

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

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(0 i OtHCMCo^rinvor^coco<33C33ootHC\]CMcooo'cr^rininvovor-r''r-cooo

(J) I \

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1 VO o Ch CO r- t—

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m 03 O O < CD 1 0 M 4-J 1 O CM CO m VO VO oo oo o^ o^ o t—

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23

‘OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

2004.

Seep

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.
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X 1 CT uo cs 1—1

03 11 CT 00 CO CO in CO CM o oo

mp o CO CM 00 CO (?) CTi CT CO P CM COO O’ P I-1 O 1 O X—1

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p oo 03 (?) o o rH

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X—1

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m co i—i

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p CM P CM P X

—1 CO o O' 00 CM in CT CM CD ca <D 1 H i—1 1 o x—1

CM CO O' in copp oo oo O'! o O

X 1 X

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T 1 CM CO in COp 00 CT!

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p OO CT

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rHX

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24

‘OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

2004.

See

p.

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.
Table

Bb-5.

OMB

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

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a<cn c i r* CM VO OO 00 VO CM VO 00 00 CT VO i—i

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in cr. CO r- 2 1 o i—i

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t-H t—1t-H i—1

t-H rH t—1rH i—it-H t-H rH rH rH rH 2 1 t-H CM CO in vo r- 00 cr o t—i

CM co in VO r-~ OO cr

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O

25

‘OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

2004.

Secp

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xiii

for

abbreviations.
C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real)

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected fuel price indices for the four Census regions and for

the United States. These indices, when multiplied by annual energy costs computed at base-date

prices (i.e., as ofApril 1 , 2004), provide estimates offuture-year costs (also as ofApril 1) in constant

base-date dollars. Constant-dollar cost estimates are needed when discounting is performed with a

real discount rate (i.e., a rate that does not include general price inflation).

These indices were used in the calculation of the UPV* factors for energy prices in the Ba and Bb

tables in this publication. While they are based on April 1 energy prices to maintain consistency in

the computation of these UPV* factors, the level of precision implied here is not required for most

LCC analyses. That is, the analyst need not calibrate base-year energy prices precisely to April 1, 2004 levels to use these indices (or the corresponding UPV* factors); instead, the analyst should use

current price levels as of the base-date of the LCC analysis, regardless of the time of the year that

the study is undertaken.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial coal in 2008 in Connecticut (in constant 2004 dollars), go to Table

Ca-1, find the year 2008 index for industrial coal (0.99), and multiply by the price for industrial coal

in Connecticut in 2004.

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage

change compounded annually) for selected periods from 2004 to 2034 for the four Census regions

and for the overall United States. Note that these are real rates exclusive of general price inflation.

Their use results in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca tables so that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to accommodate computer programs (such as BLCC) which require price escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the

indices in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices

include year-to-year information rather than averages over a number of years.

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates:

To estimate the unit price of residential natural gas at the end of 2014 (p14 ) in Wyoming using the

DOE energy price escalation rates, go to Table Cb-4 and find the 2004-2009 and the 2009-2014

escalation rates for residential natural gas (-2.1% for 5 years and 0.5% for 5 years, respectively).

Enter these values and the unit price of residential natural gas in Wyoming in 2004 (p04) into the

following formula. Then solve for the 2014 energy price (stated in 2004 dollars):

26
p> = po y Y\(1+eif‘

j=l

Pi4=/, M

x

(i+ei)

iix

(i + e2r

= pw

x (1 - .0021)

5 x (1 + .005)

5

= pm

x0.922

where p> = Price at end of year y;

po = Unit price at base date;

e, = Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal

form); and

k, = Number of years over which escalation rate e, occurs.

Note that the compounded escalation rate factor (0.922) corresponds to the fuel price index in region

4, residential natural gas, for the year 2014 in table Ca-4 (0.92).

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l on page 13 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions.

The Census regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust

Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with

U.S. average data for guidance.

27
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Table

Ca-3.

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fuel

price

indices

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inflation),

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end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Census

Region 3

(Alabama,

Arkansas,

Delaware,

District

of

Columbia,

Florida,

Georgia,

Kentucky,

Louisiana,

Maryland,

Mississippi,

North

Carolina,

Oklahoma,

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Carolina,

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1—1 1 1—1 1 oa OA OA OA O OA o OA OA o OA o o OA o 1 O 1 • 11 CM 11 o o O o i—1 o 1—1 O O 1—1 o 1—1 1—1 o 1—1 1 r- i r- VO CO i—1

CM OA LO LO LO CO OA CM 1—1 1 \—i i oa OA OA OA o OA OA OA OA o OA OA O OA o 1 O 1 11 CM 11 o o O O 1—1 O O O O 1—1 O O i—1 o 1—1 1 VO 1 r~ LD CO CM 1—1

OA LO VO LO i—1

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OA CO CM VO 1—1

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-H

p o 1—1-H

p o 0 to 0 1 -H o 0 0 o 0 i—1 0 o 0 i—1 P nj 1 -P •H <—1 1—1

•H -H 1—1 0 1—1

*H *H 1—1 0 1—1 P e> P 1 G P 1—1 0 O P 1—1 P 0 P P 1—1 P 0 O O 1 0 P -H P P P H T5 p P P •H T5 P a n P 1 T3 O P P 0 O P •H p •—1 0 O P *rH P i—1 0 o o 1 -H 0 0 CD P 6 0 0 0 p 0 P 0 0 0 P ft) G +J 0 1 cn i—1

-H eu 0 E i—1

•H 0 0 o T3 i—1

*H 0 0 o 0 o

CO 1 0 w

a

J 2 o wa CC

u

CW

Q cc 2 o p 2 1 cc o H Eh

33
Table

Ca-4.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

•H

03£o

T3(dpoI—I oo

tr> c

*Heo

>1 sGo

4-> O'G

•Hp

CO

03 :s

03 p

COmi—i CO

-H

tr> CD

coP

coC

a> o £

a; 2

03

03>

CD

:z;

03C

03 PCOSoPm

T3M

OO

II oo

CM

r—I

•Hpa<

CO

CDU

•H

TJCM

a>o

•HP

Ch

<DP

IPPa

•<

T3

CD PO

CD

•r~i OP

04

OS 1 X

—1

CM LO a> 00 LO CO i—i

as o co as LO

i—1 1 as o r~ as 00 ol (T\ CT\ cr» as as o o as o O 1 CM 11 o X—1 o o o o o O o o o X 1 X 1 o X—1

00 1 o r-" LO p- P~ 00

X—100 as LT) as LO xH 1 as o O'* CO O'* CT\ as as as O as O O 1 CM 11 o X 1 o O o o o O o o o o x—1 o x—1

r— i <y> lo LO LO LO LO 00 CO

X 1 p- as LO co LO t—i i OS O'* OS 00 OS as as as as o O'* o O 1 CM 11 o o o O O o o o o o o o x—1 o x—1

LO 1 OS LO LO LO LO p~ 00 CM LO 00 00 LO X 1 1 OS O'* OS 00 o'* <T» a\ O'* as as o as O O 1 CM 11 O o o O O o o o o o o o X 1 o x—1

LO | co LT) CO LO LO LO CO CM p- CM 00 LO xH I CT* ON r- as 00 as <T» as as as as O O'* o O 1 • CM 11 O o o o O o o O o o o o X 1 o x—1 i 00 CM LO LO 00 co p~ o 00 LO

T—1 | OS as r- as 00 cr> CT\ a> O'* as o^ o O'* o O 1 CM 11 O o o o O o o o o o o o x—1 o x—1

CO | rX 1 P* CO p~ LO 00 co LO xH 1 as r- OS CO cr> O'* as as as O'* O O 1 CM 11 o o o O O o o o o o o o o o xH

CM 1 LO r- coO CM co co X—1

p- as *sT LO LO

«—1 1 OS O'* r- O'* O'* o\ cr> as as as O'* as as

O

O 1 CM 11 o o o O

O o o o o o o o o o X

—1 x 1 1 00 lo co OS co CM x—1

rX 1 co lO co p- LO xH 1 cr> p- 00 o> CTt CT\ <T> O'* o as as as as O O 1 CM 11 O o o O o o o O o x—1 o o o o X—1 O 1 OS LO CM CO LO CM CM O 00 CM co X 1 p- p- iH 1 OS OS p~ 00 OS CJ\ CT\ as O as as as O'* o O 1 CM 11 O o o O o o o O o xH o o o o xH

OS 1 O LO CM

O r- CM X—1

x~H 00 CO CM coX 1 p- LO

O 1 O as r* OS ON cr» <T» O'* o as o> as as

O

O 1 CM 11 rH o o O o o o O o xH o o o o x

—1

00 1 O lo CM co p- CM o CO 00 CM CM co co p~ O 1 O O'* OS o^ as O as as as O'* o O 1 CM 11 x—1 o o O o o o o o X 1 o o o o x—1

P- 1 o lo r- CM o p~

x—1

CM CM CM p*

O 1 o p' o> o> CTi as o as O'* as as o O 1 CM 11 I—1 o o o o o O o o X 1 o o o o xH

LO 1 o LO coL

O

00

X—1LO 00 xH CM

x—1

CM 00

O 1 o r- as O'* 00 o> o as O^ O'* as

O

O 1 CM 11 rH o o o o O o o o rH o o O o xH m i x—1

LT) OS 00 as CM o p- 00 rH co CM CO 00 CM

O 1 o O'* r- OS a> a> o^ o O'* as as O'*

O

O 1 CM 11 X 1 O o o o o o o o X 1 o o o o rH

rH 11 <D 1 rH *—1 *—1

Q) P 1 •H •H •H C C

t4 1 o o r—

H o *—i o -r | 1 >i U) >1 •H CO >i •H CO •H ' 1 T5 1 1—1 P <D 03 p <D o 03 P CD o 03 P o C 1 03 •H P O .—i

•H P O i—1•H P O 03 cn 03 1 •H O td 03 O 03 rH 03 O 03 *—1 P o! 1 -P •H *—i *—l H •H rH 03 rH •H •H •—1

03 i—1 P O

U 1 C P *—i

03U P rHp 03 P P •—1 P 03

O

O 1 <D P •H P G P •H T3 P P P •H T3

p

a

M

4-> 1 T3

a P P 0)O P •H P rH CO o P •H

p i—1

CO

O o 1 •H (D V) e> P e (D CO CO P 03 P CD (0 CO p 03 c 4-> CD 1 U) r“H •H CU 03 s rH •H CD 03 O V rH •H Q) 03 O 03 O

C/) 1 CD

w

a Gl o Ua OS 2 U c W

a QC 2 CJ P 2 1 CC u M Eh

34
Census

Region 4

(Alaska,

Arizona,

California,

Colorado,

Hawaii,

Idaho,

Montana,

Nevada,

New

Mexico,

Oregon,

Utah,

Washington,

Wyoming)

ej—

-ac

ss

L. i co r- CM co o CM o CM 00 CM co CM l—1

CO 1 CD o 00 CD 00 o l—1 O o CDO t—1 t—i O t—1 O 1 CM 11 O t—i O o O tH l—1 t—1 t—1 O t—1 t—1 i—i t—I t—1

co i co r- CM CO CD t—1

CD CM 00 t—1

CM CM t—1

co i CD o 00 CD 00 o O o CD CD o tH t—1 O l—1 O 1 CM 11 O t—i O o o t—1 i—1 t—1 O O t—1 i—1 t—1 t—1 l—1

CM 1 CO kO i—1

r- r- 00 tH CD t—1 O CM t—1 o

CO 1 CD o 00 CD 00 o o O CD CD o t—1 t—1 o t—1 O 1 CM 11 O rH o o o t—i I—1 t—1 O O t—1 t—1 t—1 t—1 t—1

tH 1 CO kD tH kD kD tH CD t—1 o t—1 t—1 o

CO 1 CDO 00 CD co

O o O CD CD o l—1 t—1 o t—1 O 1 CM 1 O rH o O o t—1 t—i t—1 O O i—i t—1 t—1 t—1 t—1 I 0u1 98 uses H O II

PO LO

H kO cn o co (7) O tH O O

kD kD

O CD

CO

OO CD

O t 1 I 1 t—I O

II oo

cmpa<

CO

QJo

-r—1

73c

hH

<Do

•Hp

On

<Dp

•rHpa<

T5

CD +JO0

•i

—\ OP

CL,

CD | CM I O I CM II

CO | CM I O I CM III CM I O I CM II

kO | CM I O I CM II

lO I CM I O I CM IIi CM I O I CM II

ro i CM I O I CM II

CM I CM I O I CM II

tH I CM I O I CM II O I CM I O I CM II

co

m

cd o O rH

co LO

CD o O tH

coD o O rH

co

cd o O rH

co co

CD

O

O rH

co co

CD o O tH

CO CM

cd o O tH

cm

cd o o »—i

CO CM CD O O t—I

co <—i

CD

O

O t—I t—I kO

CO CD O O

iH LO

00 CD O O O LO

CO CD O O O LO

CO CD O O O LO

00 CD o o O kO

CO CD o o

CD kO

r- cd o o

CD kD

r- cd o o

co

r- cd o o

00 CM

r- cd o o

tr lo kD o co

00

OOO CD

CD tH t—I t—I CD

'tr lo lo cd co

00

OO CD CD

O tH rH

O

O

lo cd co

00

OO CD CD

O tH tHOO

LO CO CD CO

CO

OO CD CD

O tH tHOO

LO CO CM CD CO

00

OO CD CD

O rH tHOO

LO CM tH

O 00

00

OO CD

CD t—I i—I t—I CD

LO tH tH

O 00

00

OO CD

CD t—I t—1 t—I CD

LO

OO CD 00

00

OO CD CD

O tH tHO

O

LO

O CD CO 00

CO

O CD CD CD

O tH

OOO

CD CD kO CO CO CD CD CD CD o o o o o i—I kO CD

HH o

CD

OO tHO tH

CD i—I t—I i—I t—I

CD kO CO CD tH CD O O tH O

CD t—I i—I t—I t—I

CD lO [ OO CD

CD

OO tHOO

CD t—I i—I t—I i—I t—I

CD LO kD CD CD CD

CD

OOOO

O

CD t—I t—I t—I t—I t—I

CD tr LO CO

O CD

CO o o o o o

CD t—I t—I t—I i—I t—I

CD ^ ’\T CO CD 00 00 O O O CD o

CD t—I t—I t—I CD i—I

CD CM 'kT CD CD 00

CO

OO tHO

O

CD t—I t—I t—I i—I t—I

CDH CO CD

O kO CO O O O O O

CD tH t—I t—I tH i—I O O CM CD tH kO

CD

OO

OOO

CD tH t—I tH t—I t—I

CD

O tH

O LO CD O O O O O

CD t—I t—i t—I i—I tH O O tH CO CD LO

CD

OOO CD

O

CD t—I t—I i—I CD t—I 0 i 1—1 1—1 i—1 0 G i -H -H •H c C

Ih i o o i—1 o —l o •H i >1 CO ^1 •H CO >i CO •H i—1

TJ i i—i 4-> 0 cd -p 0 o cd -P 0 o cd -p o G i -H -p o i—i

-H -p

O •—i

-H -p CD cd to i *H O cd cd u cd i—1

cd

U cd •—1-p to i 4-> •H i—i 1—1

*H •H i—icd i—l

•H •H i—icd 1—1 p o U i C i—i

cd

O P i—i p cd P P i—i P id o O i CD +J -H P P -P -H p -P -P •H 73 p a

M

-P i T3 U -P P 0 O -P •H P »—i

CO

U -P -H P -H

C0 o U i *H 0 CO o -p £ 0 CO CO -P cd P 0 CO CO p cd G -U

CD i CO i—1

*H CM cd £ i—1 0 cd o 73 iH -H cd o cd o m i 0 w Q 2 O w Q QC s u C Cd Q cc 2 CJ p s i cc o IH Eh

35
Table

Ca-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type,

O

CMP

CL) cc

Cr> <

03 '—- P0 CO > CD c O

•H 0 •a

CD c

4-> i—i 0P a> CO o

•H

T5 P

CD P-4 P

-H i—1 G CD D P

Pn

•Hp

CL, <

730O

d) -r—* OP

CC

O'* 1 o- 00

T 1 CM O' LO

X

—1 LO CM CD o X

—1

LO CM

lH 1 o O'! o o O'* O* o CTi Ox o O o o O'*

O

O 1 CM 11 o o o o o O I

1 o CDX

—1 O

X

—1 X 1 o i

1

CO 1 O' rT 1 00 co o LO LO CM LO o X

—1

CD CM

X

—1 1 O'*

O o O'* o'* O'* o Ox o O o o O'*

O

O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o I

1 o OX

—1

CD CDX

—1 o x

—1

o* i o> CO o r- CM o LO LOX

—1 o CM CD CM

r-l I 0^ cr* O* o O'* o o o Ox o o o O o O O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o x—1

CD

O

X 1 o CDx

—1 o X—1

CD | o- LO o 1—1 o LO CD

X

—1 CM 00 CM CD CM

r-1 1 o o 0^ o O'* O'* o Ox o o o^

O o O

O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o o o CD

X

—1 o o X 1 CD

X 1

LO 1 LO O'* CO CD o CO LO CD o X 1 O' o CD CM

rH 1 O'* O'* CO o o O'* 0\ Ox O'* o o O'* o o O O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o o CD O X—1 o o i-H CD i—1 i CO 00 > LO O'* 00 CO CD O'* o CD O' CD X—1 i—i i O 00 3*r> o CO Ox Ox Ox O'* o o^ o O O 1 • CM 11 o o o o o o o O CD CD o CD O CD i—1

CO 1 CO co

x

—1 LO oi o~ CM CO o LO LO O'

X

—1 i-H 1 O'* o CO o o> 00 O'* O'* O'* Ox o O'* o O'* o O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o o O O CD CD o CD o I—1

CM 1 LO CO o LO 00O 0- 00 CD LO

X

—1 r- CM i

1 1 O'* o'* 00 00 o CO O'* Ox O'* o O O'* O'* cr* O O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o o CD o CD CD o o o X 1

i-H 1 LO CM co 00 00 CD 00 00 rO *sT O' 00 CM

iH1 1 o o'* 00 CO 00 o CO Ox

O CO O'* 00 o O

O 1 • CM 11 o o o o o o o o CD O o o o CD i

1 O 1 LO CM CO r~ LO r- 00 O' o CO LO 00 CM

t-H | O'* CO 00 O'* 00 O) co O'* o 00 o CO o O O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o o o O CD o CD o CD X—1

a> i LO co LO cr* 00 LO 00 00 00 o CO O' 00X 1 O 1 o O* 00 00 o\ 00 0\ 00 Ox o 00 O'* 00 o^ o O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o o o CD CD o o o o X—1

CO 1 LO co LO \—ico co o 00 O' O'* CM o O'*X—1 O 1 O o 00 O o> 00 o Ox O^ O 00 O 00 o o O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o o CD O CD o CD o CD I—1

o* i CO co

X 1 00 CO CD 00 O' o x

—1 O' 00 i-H

O 1 o O'* 00 a> o 00 0\ O'* Ox o 00 O'* 00 o O O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o CD o CD o o o o CD x—1

CO I O' co LO CO

T

—1

00 00 o o O' 00 o O 1 o o 00 o'* 00 C33 Ox Ox o CO o 00 o CD O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o o CD CD CD CD CD o CD X—1

LO 1 LO CD r- CM co LO CT* Ox CM CM o o O'* O 1 cr> o 00 0\ O'* O'* 0\ Ox a> O o^ O 00 o o O 1 CM 11 o o o o o o o CD o CD o O o o CD i—1 11 <D 1 t-H r-H rH 0 P 1 •H •rH H c G

Pn 1 O o pH

O r-H o •H 1 >i CO •H CO ^>1 •H 0 •H t—1

T5 1 i—1 P 0 0 p 0 o 0 P 0 o 0 P O C 1 H P O r-H •H p O i—l

•H P o 0 0

03 1 •H

O 0 0 O 0 1—1 0 o 0 t—1 P 0 1 P •H i-H t—i

•H •H i—1 0 t—i H •H 1—1 0 rH P o P 1 G P t—1

<d

O P r-H

p 0 P P rH P 0 O

O 1 0 P •H

p P P •H 73 P P P •H 73 P 0,p

-P 1 73O P P 0 o P •H P t—l 0 O P •H P t—1 0 0 O 1 H 0 V) (j P £ 0 (0 CO P 0 P 0 10 0 P 0 c p 0 1 (0 —1

•H cu 0 £ 1—1•H 0 0 O 73 t—1

•H 0 0 o 0 o

CO 1 0 wQ 2 O

wa PC 2 L>Cw

a PC Z CJ P 2 1 PC U M Eh

36
CO I O I CM II

CO Lf) (Ti O 0> CTi O rH O O

rH 00 CM 05 V£> O CD rH 05 05 i—I r—I \—I o o

in CM

O CO CD o h h 05 \—I r—I \—I r—I o o

Q.

ZJ a

*oc3u0J

C/3 CJ

C/5 3I -o oo

oo i oo i o i CM II

CM I 00 I O I CM II

00 I O I CM II O I oo i O I CM II

00 ^ U0 MD

05 o 05 05 O rH O O

CO CO LTD MD

05 CD 05 05 O rH o o

co co in 'D

OO

O O'* 05

O i—I o o

00 CM LO LO 05 o 05 05 O 1-1 o o H CO

H CO

CD CD

x—I 05 05

rHx—I r—I CD CD

O CM

H CTi CO

OO

H (Ti cn i—I r—I (—I CD CD O CM O 00 LO

CD CD rH 05 05 \—I r—I i—I O CD o h oi co m o o o o'* 05 r—I r—I r—I CD CD

O CD rHO 05

r—I rHr—I r—I CD m^oo^r- o o rH o cr>

rH <—I r—I r—I CD

LO CO 05 CO MO O O O O o> r—I r—I i—I \—I CD ^ (M O CO CD O CD CD CD 05

rHr—I r—I r—I CD

LO I O I

LO I O I

-O3# oc3 oo

CM

05 I CM I

CMO

00 CM

M1 LO

05 CD 05 05 O rH O O

coh lo 05 CD 05 05 O rH O O

OO 00 00 LO CD CD CD 05 05 x—I x—I x—I CD CD o h Mn 05 O CD 05 05

CD

x—I x—I CD CD

'vT CM 00 r- MO

CD CD CD CD 05 X 1 X 1 X 1 1 I CD H h MO O CD CD CD 05 X I X 1 X I X 1 CD i o i I

i.o»e

a*0£

0X3 G5“3*CJ

C/5 <U 'U5a

a>

<u aaaj +*u

QJO*u

cu

"O 0

CD0P0><(f) 0

-P

-PCO

TJ0

-P•HcD Pa

C/5 0o

•H

T3CP0P

Chpac

730

-PO0nOP

0-)

p- i cm I o i cm ii

MO I CM I O I CM II

LO I CM I O I CM IIi CM I O I CM II

CO I CM I O I CM II

CM I CM I O I CM II

CMO

r- r—i

C5^ o CTi cr> o rH o o

r- t—i 05 CD 05 05 o i o o h o m ^

Cl

O Cl

CDH CD CD

h o m ^ O O 05 O i—I o o h o m ^

05

O 05 05

CD rH CD CD

r- 05 CM LO 05 05 05 05 O O O O

05 C\1 'sT 05 05 05 05 O O O O Is- co h ro

05 05 05 05

05 05 MO r* ^

05 05

O 05 05

CD CDx—I O

O

G5 05 MO C- *vT 05 05 O 05 05

CD CD rH CD CD

05 CO in MO

q1 05 05 o 05 05 O O I-I o o

co ^ ^

05 05 o 05 05

CD CDx—I O

O

co no r- 05 05 O 05 05 O O rH CD O

oo t co r~" lt) 05 05 O 05 05 O O rH O O

co mo cm r-» ld 05 05 o 05 05 O CD rH O O

r- MO CM LO LO 05 05 o 05 05

CO rH MO MO MO O CD O CD 05 X 1 X—I x—| X 1 CD

CO

O LO LO LO

O

O CDO 05

X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 CD

co o lo lo O O O O 05 X 1 X—I x—I X I CD

CM 05 00 LO LO O 05 O O 05 X—I O x—I X—I O

CM 00 CM LO MO O 05 o O 05

rH

O rH rHO

CM 00 CM MO MO O 05 o O 05 r—I CD x—I x—I CD

CM 00 rH LO MO O 05 o O 05 i—I CD x—I x—I CD

CM rO CM LO O 05 o O 05

CMo o o o o O O rH O O x—I CD r—I x—I CD so

C\ t/3 u

a> 3cs H 0 1 1—1 1—1 I—1 0 p 1 -H •H •H c C 1 o o r—1 o l—1 o -H 1 >i CO J>i •H CO >i •H CO -H r—l

73 1 1—1-P 0 03 4-) 0 o 03 4-J 0 o 0 -P o G 1 03 *H 4-> O i—1

-H -P o i—1

•Hp

O 0 w

03 1 •H

O 03 03

O 03 1—1

03

a 03 i—1 4-) (0 1 4-> •H 1—1 i—l

•H •r| 1—1

03 1—1-H •H i—1 0 i—1 P o P 1 G P —1

03

O

u 1—1 P 03

U i—1 P 0 O

O 1 0 4-) •H P u 4-) •H

T3 U 4-J -P *HT5 P a S-t 4-> 1 T3 a 4-) P 0 U 4-4 H P 1—1

CO

O P *H P <—1(0 o O 1 -H 0 (0 o 4-> B 0 (0 CO 4-> 03 P 0 CO CO -P 0 c 4-> 0 W —i

•H CM 03

B i—1

•H 0 03

O

T3 i—1-H 0 0 o 0 o

CO 1 0 w

Q S O

w

a CC 2 O

Gw

Q CC 2 o P s 1 CC O H Eh

37
Table Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

2004

to

2009

2009

to

2014

2014

to

2019

2019

to

2024

2024

to

2029

2029

to

2034

Residential

Electricity -2 .

0

1 . 9 0 .

2

0 .

1

0.2 0 .

1

Distillate Oil -1 .

5

0 .

3

0 . 8 0 .

4

0 .

4

0 .

4

LPG -1 . 9 0 .

4

0 .

5

0 .

3

0 .

3

0 .

2

Natural Gas -2 .

3

0 .

9

0 .

0

0 .

2

0.2 0 .

3

Commercial

Electricity -3 .

0

2 .

4

0 .

6

0 .

2

0 .

5

0 .

3

Distillate Oil -2 .

6

0 .

4

1 .

0

0 . 6 0 .

5

0 .

5

Residual Oil -1.1 0 .

7

0 . 6 0 .

6

0 .

7

0 .

7

Natural Gas -2 .

7

1 .

2

0 .

2

0 .

3

0 .

2

0 .

3

Coal -0 .

1

-0 .

6

-0 . 6 -0 . 1 0 .

1

0 .

4

Industrial

Electricity -1 . 7 1 . 1 0 .

8

0 .

1

0 .

3

0 .

3

Distillate Oil -2 .

4

0 .

4

1 .

0

0 . 6 0 .

5

0 .

5

Residual Oil -1 .

3

0 .

8

0 . 6 0 . 6 0 .

7

0 .

8

Natural Gas -3 .

0

2 .

3

0 .

4

0 .

3

0 .

3

0 .

4

Coal -0 .

1

-0 .

7

-0 .

4

-0 .

1

0 .

3

0 .

3

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0 .

0

-0 .

0

0 .

2

0 .

0

0 .

2

0 .

3

38
Table Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

2004

to

2009

2009

to

2014

2014

to

2019

2019

to

2024

2024

to

2029

2029

to

2034

Residential

Electricity -1 .

0

0 .

5

0 .

1

0 .

2

0 .

1

0 .

1

Distillate Oil -1 .

3

0 .

3

1 .

2

0.2 0 .

6

0 .

5

LPG -3 .

1

0 .

7

0 .

8

0.5 0 .

3

0 .

3

Natural Gas -2 .

6

1 .

0

0 .

1

0 .

5

0.2 0 .

4

Commercial

Electricity -1 .

5

1 .

2

0 .

5

0.2 0.2 0 .

2

Distillate Oil -3 .

0

0 .

4

i . 6 0.2 0 .

8

0 .

6

Residual Oil -2 .

0

0 .

8

0 .

8

0 .

8

0 .

9

0 .

9

Natural Gas -2 .

7

1 .

3

0 .

2

0 .

6

0.2 0 .

4

Coal -0 .

2

-0 .

4

-0 .

5

-0.3 0 .

4

0 .

3

Industrial

Electricity -0 .

7

0 .

9

0 .

9

0 .

2

0 .

3

0 .

3

Distillate Oil -2 .

6

0 .

3

1 .

4

0 .

2

0 .

7

0.5

Residual Oil -2 .

0

0 .

8

0 .

8

0 .

8

0 .

9

0 .

9

Natural Gas -2 .

9

2 .

3

0.4. 0 .

8

0 .

3

0.5

Coal -0 .

3

-0 .

4

-0 .

3

0 .

1

0 .

1

0.3

Transportation

Motor Gasoline -0 .

1

0 .

1

0 .

1

0.2 0 .

3

0 .

3

39
Table Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida,

Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma,

South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

2004

to

2009

2009

to

2014

2014

to

2019

2019

to

2024

2024

to

2029

2029

to

2034

Residential

Electricity -0 .

9

0 .

1

0 .

1

0 . 1 0 .

1

0 .

1

Distillate Oil -1.6 0 .

3

1 .

0

0 .

4

0 .

4

0 .

4

LPG -2 .

2

0 .

5

0 . 6 0 .

3

0 .

3

0 .

2

Natural Gas -2 .

3

0 .

7

0 .

2

0 .

3

0 .

2

0 .

3

Commercial

Electricity -0 .

8

0 .

7

0 . 6 0 .

3

0 .

4

0 . 4 Distillate Oil -2 .

8

0 .

4

1 . 6 0 .

6

0 . 6 0 . 6 Residual Oil -1 .

2

0 .

6

0 .

8

0 .

7

0 .

8

0 .

8

Natural Gas -2 .

5

1 . 1 0 .

4

0 .

5

0 .

3

0 .

3

Coal -0 .

5

-0 .

4

-0 .

5

-0 .

1

0 .

1

0 .

4

Industrial

Electricity -0 .

3

0 .

7

0 .

7

0 .

3

0 .

4

0 .

4

Distillate Oil -2 . 6 0 .

4

1 .

5

0 .

5

0 .

7

0 . 6 Residual Oil -1 .

3

0 .

7

0 .

7

0 .

7

0 .

8

0 . 9 Natural Gas -2 . 9 2 .

4

0 .

9

0 .

8

0 .

5

0 .

5

Coal -0 .

6

-0 .

3

-0 .

5

-0 . 1 0 .

1

0 .

2

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0 .

1

0 .

0

0 . 1 0 . 1 0 .

2

0 .

3

40
Table Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii,

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

2004

to

2009

2009

to

2014

2014

to

2019

2019

to

2024

2024

to

2029

2029

to

2034

Residential

Electricity -0 .

0

-1 .

2

-0 .

1

-0 .

0

-0 . 1 -0 .

1

Distillate Oil -0 .

8

0 .

3

0 .

6

0 .

4

0 .

4

0 .

4

LPG -6.4 0 .

7

0 . 8 0 .

5

0 .

3

0 .

3

Natural Gas -2 .

1

0 .

5

-0 .

0

0 . 8 -0 .

0

0 .

3

Commercial

Electricity -0 .

6

-2 .

4

-0 .

2

0 .

0

-0 .

1

-0 .

1

Distillate Oil -1 .

7

0 .

4

1 .

0

0 .

6

0 .

7

0 .

5

Residual Oil -1 . 9 0 .

7

0 .

7

0 . 7 0 . 8 0 .

8

Natural Gas -1.9 0 .

8

0 .

1

0 .

9

0 .

0

0 .

4

Coal -0 .

5

0 .

0

0 .

0

0 .

0

0 .

1

0 .

4

Industrial

Electricity 0 .

6

-2 .

1

-0 .

4

-0 .

3

0 .

2

0 .

4

Distillate Oil -1.6 0 .

4

1 . 1 0 . 6 0 .

7

0 .

5

Residual Oil -1.4 0 . 7 0 .

7

0 . 7 0 .

8

0 .

8

Natural Gas -1 .

8

1 . 9 0 .

5

1 .

3

0 .

0

0 .

5

Coal -0 .

6

0 .

1

0 . 4 0 .

1

0 .

1

0.2

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 1 .

2

-0 .

1

-0 .

0

0 .

5

0 .

3

0 .

3

41
Table Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Percentage change compounded annual 1

y

Sector and Fuel

2004

to

2009

2009

to

2014

2014

to

2019

2019

to

2024

2024

to

2029

2029

to

2034

Residential

Electricity -1 . 0 0 .

2

0 .

1

0 .

1

0 . 1 0 .

1

Distillate Oil -1 . 5 0 .

3

0 .

8

0 .

4

0 .

4

0 . 4 LPG -3 .

1

0 . 6 0 .

7

0 . 4 0 .

3

0.2

Natural Gas -2 .

4

0 .

8

0 .

1

0 .

4

0 .

1

0 .

3

Commercial

Electricity -1 .

3

0 .

4

0 .

4

0 .

2

0 .

3

0 .

2

Distillate Oil -2 .

6

0 .

3

1 .

3

0 .

5

0 .

6

0 .

6

Residual Oil -1 .

1

0 .

7

0 .

7

0 . 6 0 .

7

0 .

8

Natural Gas -2 .

5

1 .

1

0 .

2

0 .

5

0.2 0 .

3

Coal -0 . 4 -0 .

4

-0 .

4

-0 .

1

0 .

1

0 .

4

Industrial

Electricity -0 .

4

0 .

2

0 .

5

0 .

1

0 .

4

0 . 3 Distillate Oil -2 .

4

0 .

4

1 .

3

0 .

5

0 .

6

0 .

5

Residual Oil -1 .

5

0 .

7

0 .

7

0 .

7

0 .

8

0 . 8 Natural Gas -2 .

7

2.2 0 .

7

0 . 9 0 .

3

0 .

5

Coal -0 .

4

-0 .

4

-0 .

3

0 .

0

0 .

1

0 .

4

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 0 .

3

0 .

0

0 .

1

0 .

2

0 .

3

0 .

3

42
PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE

SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS

This section presents tables ofprojected nominal (i.e., including inflation) fuel price indices for four

fuels in the residential sector and five fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 2004

through 2034. These price indices are based on the DOE energy price projections, reported in part

l-B of this document, used to calculate the FEMP and OMB UPV* factors for energy costs. The

tables are provided as an update to similar tables originally published in Comprehensive Guidefor

Least-Cost Energy Decisions (NBS SP 709).

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates of general price inflation: 2, 3, 4, and 5%. Selection of these rates is in no way intended to suggest

what actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates in current dollars, inclusive

of general price inflation. Current-dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with

discount rates that include general price inflation (i.e., nominal or market discount rates).

The indices based on inflation rates of2, 3, 4, and 5% allow the analyst to perform evaluations based on the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that changes the purchasing power of

the dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private investment

decisions, primarily because it facilitates the treatment of taxes.

The indices in Tables S-l through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 through

Ca-5 by means of the following equation:

-r = S,x(l + g)",

where I

s =index found in Tables S-l through S-5;

Ic =index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5;

g =annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

N ^number of years, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 2003.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

Suppose you wish to estimate the annual cost of natural gas for a house in Maryland in year 2008,

given the annual cost in 2004 (April 1) prices, and you expect an annual inflation rate of3% per year. From table S-3, find the column with residential natural gas indices at an inflation rate of 3%; then

locate the index for the year 2008. This index is 1.03. Multiply the annual cost in 2004 prices to find

the estimated annual cost in year-2008 prices.

If this annual cost in year-2007 prices is to be discounted to present value, you must use a nominal

discount rate that includes the same assumption with regard to general price inflation (3% in this

example). To obtain a present-value cost over the entire study period, the present-value calculation

43
must be repeated for each year that there are natural gas costs, and the results summed. (UPV*

factors are not given for private sector use because of the large number of tables required to cover

potential discount rates that might be used by the analyst.) The BLCC computer program can perform LCC analyses using any inflation rate and discount rate, in constant or in current (market)

dollars. The DISCOUNT program, included with BLCC, can compute UPV* factors based on DOE

energy price escalation rates using any inflation rate and discount rate. (See page iv for more

information on these programs.) Of course, the private sector analyst may use the UPV* factors

reported in Part I, provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars and the desired discount rate corresponds to the DOE or OMB discount rates used in Part I.

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B,

Part I.

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-l on page 13 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions.

The Census regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Tmst

Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with

U.S. average data for guidance.

44
Table

S-l.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

2,

3,

4,

and 5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

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45
Table

S-l,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

2,

3,

4,

and 5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

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47
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49
Table

S-2,

continued.

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fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

2,

3,

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icmcmcmcmcmcmcmcocococoi

o\ o\ a\ o o o

:CMC\]CNC\)C\I<NCM(\IC\1'

O O O O . ifvJMMCVJfMMMfM

o o o o o o .

icNifMfMCMfMCNjcMfnmmroi

(\ic\iCMCMCMCMC\jCMCMrocncoro

CNl CNJ CNJ CNJ I

O O O O .

i ro o") m m m ^r

(\(Njr>jcMfNj(NNCM(Nnnrn

o o o o .

I M N N (N <N M (VI

o o o o o o .

UNMINNOJNCgi’ini’IMl

iCMCMOMCMCMCMCNCMCMcnnmi

I CM CM Osl (N CM CM

Mi/i^O['coo^OH(\in'riniDh(cinoH(\mTrifliDr'CD(J'OHi\j(,iT (TjOOOOO^H^HHi—IHHHHHH(\(N(\(MlN('J(NfMC'J(N(T'n(Tl<r^(r) aioooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo >-»CMCMCMCMCMCMCMCNICMCMCMCMCM(MCMCMCMCM<MCM<M<MrslCMCM<MCMCM<NCM

50
Table

S-3.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

2,

3,

4,

and 5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

•H

O'MO

a) o

•a

•HMO—I

fxi

03 •H

XI6P•—i OuXOaHuX

CO •HQ

(Uu

035H

CU a

CO03

COc

03 <

036

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03 i—i <

COco

•H

<u oc

coP

COc

<U u i11111 CO 111111 03 1 CU O 1 X

a) 1 03 <u rH 1 PC

CO 03 1 CO U 1 c

(U P 1 o c X 1 •rH c 03 1 X

<u Z 1 03 H 1 •—1 1 1 X 1l 1 c

03 1 M C 1 •H 1 rH 1 O 1 M

03 (J oo 1 X 1 X H 1 P 1 O II 1 CO

<3* 1 11 CU

«. o 1 X

03 o 1 03 £ c\] o 1 cc o CU 1 X X 1 c

03

— r-H 1 o <—1 03 1 •rH ^ -H i—1 1 X o c H 1 03 •H 1 1 i—1 - CJ> a 1 1 X

03

M < 1 c C -H '

l 1 M

•rH > i—1 CO 11 11 O X CU 1 , ~i 1 M CO o

t—i •< 1 03 (U H O S X - X 03 M *H

TJCM

CU

H2UQ 111 O C O COWrS 1—1 1 Z -H •H •H 1 CP U o 1 - L4 0-i

U-. 1 CU •H *H CU 1 X a > 1—1 X 1 03 a CU 03 1 PC •H •» p i—1 1 CO CO k-l i—1 1 C

CO 03 •rH 1 O

•rH

X

r—1 X 1 •H

CO CU CO 1 X

CO Eh 1—1

•H 1 03

•rH •rH

Q 1 —1 u 1 X a 1 c < 1 1—1

T5 1 C T3 1 03 CU 1 i—1

4-) 1 1 >i U 1| U CU

03 *ro 1 2 O 11 1 1 1 w CU 1 1 03 1 c 1 03 1 •H X 1 CU

CO rH 1 X

•rH o 1 03 P *H 1 PC o 1 X X 1 c o 1 o

CU 1 *H

>1 1—1 1 X W 1 05 o 1 1 i—1 p 1| 1 X

4-) 1 c c 1 1 H

CU 1 1 z 111111111 111 O CM LO t—i

LO co CM

x

—1 o o CO LO oo LO 00 O'* O'*

X

—1 CO r- CM r- CO

X

—1 O'* 00 CO ON

5%

O o O \—i t—i t—1

CM CO LO LO LO 00 ON o x

—1

CM CO LO LO r- O'* o CM LO O'* t—1 r—1 \—i r—1 T-1 t—i r—1 r—1 t—1 X—1 X 1 r—1 X 1 i—i x—1 X—1 CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM 00 CO CO oo 00 CO

O') o co r- co o LO CO o LO o LO t—1

r- LO LO CM o r- LO LO LO r- G) t—1

o\° ON o o o o r

—1 i—1

CM co 00 lO LO LO LO r- 00 O'* o o x

—1

CM co LO LO 00 o t—1 O t—1 *—i \—i r—1 X—1 r—1 r—1 X—1 r—1 X 1 X—1 x—1 x—1 x—1 X—1 X 1 X—1

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO oo

00 00 o co 00 00 CO O'* o rX

—1

LOX

—1

r- CM LO

X

—1

LO

x

—1

oo

O 00 o 00 lO

o\° CO ON ON o o o o o T

—1 X 1 CM oo oo 00 LO LO LO LO 00 co ONO o X

—1

CM CM 00 o O r—1 \—i t—i «—i T 1 t—1 X—1 x—1 x—1 X—1 X—1 X—1 X—1 T 1 X—1 X—1 X—1 X—1 X—1 X—1 X—1 x—I

CM CM CM CM CM CM

00 LO on 00 00 o LO O'* CM LO O'*

X

—1 00 LO ON co LO CO o co LO o oo r- o 00 CM LO

o\° CM

on ON on ON ON O'* o o o r

—1 X 1 r—1 CM CM CM CM 00 00 CO LO LO LO LO LO LO r- o O o O o o r—1 X—1 X—1 X 1 X—1 X—1 x—1 x—1 x—1 X—1 X 1 X—1 X—1 x—1 x—1 X—1 x—1 x—1 X—1 x—1

T—1 X

—1 x—1 X 1

LO CM CO

O CM ON 00 LO LO LO 00 ON CM LO ON CO 00 oo

O r- LO LO

o\o LO

ON ON o o x

—1

CM CM co LO LO r- 00 ON o x

—1

CM LO LO CO ON

X

—1 00 LO 00 o CM

O o X

—1 X—1 x

—1 X

—1 t—i X

—1 X—1 X—1 X—1 t—i X—1 x—1 x—1

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM oo 00 co 00 oo 'sT

LO ON 'nT ON CO ONO LO CM ON LO 00 o C" LO co CM

O

O ON ON ON ON o CM LO ON

4%

ON ON ON o OX

—1 t—1

CM co 00 LO LO r-~ r- 00 ONO

x

—1

CM CM 00 LO O' 00 ONO t-U

O o o x

—1 X—1 X

—1 X—1 X—1 X 1 x—1 X—1 x—1 x—1 x—1 X—1

r-HX

—1 X—1

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO oo

co CO LO o rT 1 LO ON 00 00 00 CM r- CM c- CM 00 00 ON LOX—1 O' o x—1 ON

3% ON ON ON o o o x

—1 x—1 x—1 CM CM oo co LO LO LO LO O' 00 ON ON o X 1 X—1 CM CO 00 o o O X—1 T 1 T 1 X 1 X 1 X—1 X 1 X—1 X—1 X 1 X 1 X—1 x—1 x—1 X—1 x—1 X—1 X—1 X 1 x—1 x—1 CM CM CM CM CM CM

CM

X

—1 LO ON

x

—1 LO ON CM LO CO

X 1 C" o 00 LO ON CO LO o 00 LOO CO t—O 00

2%

ON ON ON ON ON o o O

O

x

—1 x—1 X 1 CM CM CM 00 CO co CO LO LO LO LO LO LO r- rO o O O O x—1 t-i X—1 x—1 X—1 X—1 X 1 X—1 X—1 X—1 «—i X—1 X—1 *

1 X 1 X 1 x—1 X—1 x—1 T—1 x—1 x—1 rH x—1 t—i O CM O' CM 00 o r" LO CM t—1 X—1 X 1 00 LO CO o CM LO o LO rH CO LO LO LO LO 00 rH

o\° LOO o o X 1 x

—1 CM co 00 LO LO CO ON o x—1 CM LO LO 00 ON t—1 CM LO 00

O CM LO i—1 X—1 X—1 X 1 t—1 X—1 X 1 X—1 X—1 x—1 rH x—1 X—1

T—\ CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM 00 00 oo 00 oo

ON

X 1 00 CM 0" CM r- 00 CO LO CM o ON 0" LO CM

O ON ON ON o x

—1

oo o 'nT 00

oN° ON o o o X

—1 X—1

CM CM 00 00 LO LO LO r" 00 ONO

x

—1 x—1

CM OO LO LO r- 00 ON

r—1

CM oo

O

X 1 x

—1 X—1 x—1 X 1 X—1 X 1 x—1 X—1 X—1 x

—1 x

—1 x—1 X 1 X—1 x—1

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM 00 00 oo

00 ONX

—1 r" o 00 CM LO o LO

x

—1 r- 00 ON

O LO

X

—1 00 o 0"

X

—1 ON O' LO 00

o\° oo

ON ON o o o X 1 X

—1 X

—1 CM CM 00 00 LO LO LO r" 00 00 ON o o rH CM CM OO LO

O o X

—1 x—1 x—1 x—1 X

—1 X

—1 X—1 X—1 X—1 x—1 X—1 X 1 x—1 x—1 X—1 x

—1 rH rH

x

—1 x—1 CM CM 04 CM CM CM CM CM

r- 0" CO o CM •sr LO ON

X

—1

r- o ON CM LO ON CM LO ON CM LO o CO CM LO o -Ty

o\° CM

ON ON ON o o o o o X

—1 X

—1 X—1 CM CM CM 00 00 oo sr LO LO LO LO LO r- O' 00 00 00 o o o X—1 X—1 X 1 x—1 X—1 X—1 X 1 X—1 X—1 X—1 x—1 X—1 X—1 x—1 X—1 X 1 x—1 t—1 x—1 X—1

rH rH rH i—IrH rH rH

CO CM r- CM ooX

—1 ON [" LO CM CM

r—1rH CO LO 00 CM VO o LO CM 00 LO in LO

o\o LO o o X 1 x—1

CM CM oo LO LO r^* 00 ONO

r

—1

CM 00 LO 00 o rH OO LO 00 o CM

X 1 t—i X

—1 X

—1 X 1 X 1 *—i X—1

rHr—1 t—1 r—1 r—1rH CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM co oo co co 00 CO

oo LO ON CM LO o o LO CM ON LO

r—100 rH

O r* 'nT oo CM rH rH rH rH CM co LO ON

o\° o OOX

—1 X—1

CM CM 00 CO LO LO LO 00 ON ON o r

—1

CM 00 lO LO r- 00 ONO i-4 X 1 t—1 x—1 X—1

rH

X

—1 X 1 r

—1 r—1rH

x

—1 r

—1 r—1 r—1 r—1 r

—1 r—1

CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO

CM •nT LO 00x

—1

00 LOX

—1 ln ON CO CM LO

r—1LO rH LO O' LO 04 r- 00 ’ lO rH 00 LO c

o\° ooO o O o x

—1 x

—1 X—1

CM CM CM co co LO LO LO LO r- 00 00 ON ON

O rH rH CM co co

X

—1 X—1 X

—1

rHx

—1 t—1 X 1 t—1 r

—1 r—1 x

—1 r—1

rHr—1 r—1rH rH

r

—I r

—1rH rH rH rH rH CM CM CM CM CM CM t—1

CM 00 LO r- 00 rH r* o co LO 00 o oo LO

a rH LO 00 rH rH O' GO

o\° CM o O o o O o o x

—1

rHr—1

CM CM CM CM oo co 00 co LO LO LO LO LO LO rX—1 X—1 X—1 x—1

rHx

—1 X—1 X

—1 r

—1 t—1rHr—1rHr—1rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH

u LO LO r- 00 CT* o rH CM CO LO LO 00 ON

O

r

—1

CM CO LO LO r- 00 ON o rH CM CO TT

ftJ o o o o o X

—1 r

—1 r—1 r—1rHr—1rH rH rH rH CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CN CM CO CO CO CO CO

CU o o o o o o o o o O o o o o O

OOOOOO

O o o O o o o O >H CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM

51
Table

S-3,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

2,

3,

4,

and 5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

'^ra^^OLDi-Hr-or)0'X'^rcMcr>oo^'^r^rLr)^Dr-o^cNjr^(Nr~LO«-HiHOCNj o\°ooHCMC\jor)fr)'3, ini^^)^r'ComoHCMm'7ini^cooH(vur)i^(nH

ID HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH(N(N(MC\JfS]CM(NCsmfOmOOOOn'T

mr-HVD(y\^rcoror^C\]oo'Ta)^rcoir)fs]crir'q'CN]OHOcr\HHq, if)CTi o\°OOHHHCMfNJfnoV^q, l/)LmD ,X)hCOOO(TiOH(MrO'7^'XlhCO(^0

i—I i—I rH «—I i—I rH »—I x—I \—I t—I i—I i—I i—I i—It—I i—I «—I x—I t—I CN CM CN CN (N CN CM CM (N CM OO

c\iDr^^-)oor'<T»oo'DcT>ror^<T>covDODcr>*vroocoooDO'x»coa^r-o-)f-H o\°OOOrHrHrHrH(NCNCNOOOOOO*vr^, lDlDlD'D<X>r-r-~OOa>i(yiOOr-I CN 00 00

i—I i—I x—I i—I t—I i—I x—I t—I i—I i—I i—I rH x—I i—I t—I t—I <—I t—I t—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I CNJ CNJ CN1 CN] CN]

o\o

CNJ Hoo'3, r''-ooo«—i'3, Lnr'a'»c\]ooLnv£>ooH^, 'DCDH'srr'-oco[^~Hinoooo OOOOOHHHHHHCNKNCNKMCNmnnm'TT'vTLnimnVD^^h

cri o o (nj m cn cnj cni x—i cn »—i <y\ oo i o ^ d no od o id o no po <—i o o *—i oo

o\o cTi o o i—it—i i—i cnj co id nd r co on i

i cnj oo d r^- <x> o t—i on lo [ cr* t—i oo

in O i—I *—I t—I

»—I i—I H t—I t—I x—I rH i—I H x—I t—I CM CN] CM CM CNJ CM CM 00 00 00 OO OO OO

CDOO t-HDr-CTi«vrCMOr^'DOOOO ,^rHOHCr)DrOHr-IHHCNl^lDCOHin

oV° ON o O O O x—I CM oo 00 D id VO [ 00 ON ON O x—I CNJ OO ^ D VO t"" 00 ON rH CNI sT O O *—I i—I i—I H H x—I x—I t—I x—I x—I x—I x—I i—I H t—I x—I CN] CN] CNJ CN] CM CN] CN] CNJ CM CM 00 OO r~[^OOrHCNOOr-OOOlDrHVOO^TOO^, CNVOt—I ID t—ir-OOCTlVOOOOOODOO o\paNONa'»ooooHCNjc\]oooo ,=r

,^r^riDNOND[--r^oooo<T>o>>OHC\)CMoo'cr

OO OOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHCNICNOJCMCNCM

'X>iD'X»ao[^r-'OiDOooaorHooiDaocMr^ONCNi^r~T-i<^roocN]iDcnoor-'H oPOMTKTi^CrtCriOOHHHCNJCNJCNCNlOOOOOO'T'T'g’inininCDlDCDt^^CD

CNJ O O O O CD CD x—I x—I rH i—I rH X—I «—I r—I i—I x—I x—I i—I t-1 t—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I rH x—I x—I rH

r-CN]co'^ror-<^rc\ioaDoor~~oooooc\]'^raocNr"OOCDCT>oococr>oor-'C\]0 o\°CT»OOHCMCN]00'crDlDVDr-OOCriHCNJOO'^r'X>r-Cr>t—I CN ^ VO 00 t—I 00 VO CT> m

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHCNJCNlCNJCNlCNCMCMOOfOOOfOOO'T^'q'^

V0CDDOlDCDNO«—IOO'3’«-HaONO<3’C\]rHa'>C3NC'><3NO«-H ,C

, NOCD^rO'>'^ror^

o\o (TS O O t—I t—

I

CN] CM OO OO'vPlDlDNOr^OOONO'i O HCNl'^TlDlDt'-ffiOH 00 ID VO O x—I x—I t—I «—I H t—I i—I i-H H H Hi—It—I x—I i—I x—I CN] CNJ CM CM CM C\1 CN] CNJ 00 OO 00 00 00 IDCOCNJlDawnr^CMCDHlDHCDCNjr-OOC^lDCNJCJUDmHC^CDlDCDininin oPCTiCnoOOHHOJCNJfOOO'T^rininiDlDr'CDOO^OHHCMfO^iniDr^

OO O O x—I x—I i—I x—I x—I i—I i—I x—I i—I x—I t—I x—I x—I x—I «—I t—1 x—I x—I t—I CN] CN] CNJ CN] CNJ CN] CN] CNJ CN]

inVD(TlH <3'(^OCN]^(3>(NJinO>CN]CDOOOI^HinO ,5

, OWnOOOOaiq’C3MD

o\o QN ON O'* O O O x—It—

I

t—I i—I CNJ CN] CN] 00 OO ^ ^ lO ID CD CD VO [-~ r 00 CO ON ON CD

CNJ CD CD CD x—I «—I x—I rH rH rH x—I x—I rH «—I x—I x—I x—I rH rH x—I x—I x—I rH rH x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I rH CN]

V0r^rHV0rHV000OP~ ,'3, 00 00<3, r--a'lOP0L000rHV0CNa0V0'3, 00<3, lD00 00 (AOCTlCTlOOHHCNIOOOO'Tin^MDCriHCMfO^lDMJlOCNJ'TlDCOOCNJin m OOHHHHHHHHHHHHHCNlCNJCNICNJCNJCNCNIOOmOOOOOO^'T'C

l/l in CO (NJ ID O Id i—I CD H OD iD T 0^1 CNJ i—I O CO h If) ID h I (Ti rH O Is- O Id O

0\ocr.c^cr1 oOrHvHCNjCN]oooo^rDCDr'cr)ONC5NOHCN]oo^rDr-ooa>HCNj'^r

OOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHCN](N(NJ(N]CNJCN](\J(N|(N]nrOm

^(nincDH'TcocNjina^'TOuDrooMnHCDCNjco'THODinooocT'r'in'T

0\oC^(T>(Ti(TiOOOHHHCNJCN]00^'TlDlDlDr'r^(X)0(riOHCN](NHn'Tin

OO O O O O HHrHrHrHrHi—IrHrHrHHrHrHHrHrHHrHrHCNJCNJCNlCNJCNJCNlCN]

OO H CN1 NT CD CO O 00 CO OO i—I D O'! ID ON CNJ VO O OO CD O ^ 03 CN] rH CD O LO O

o\°o^cr\<?icriocriooooHHHCNjcNjnro'3'M'M, LnininiDiDr'[v'Cooocn

CNJ O O O O O CD rH i—I x—I x—I x—I «—I x—I rH x—I x—I i—I x—I rH x—I i—I

»—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I rH

OOr'rHNDOOCXJD^rOOCNJCNJCNJrHCNJOO'^rr'CJNODrH'vDCOOCriCOOOCriCNJCD

0\0 OOHHCN](N]n^miDt^03(TlOHC\]m'3'CDl^C?iOCNjvTLnr'C>H^lD

in HHHHHHHHHHHHHCNCNCMCNCMCMCNJCNlOOmrOrOOnOO^M’^

CN]iDr~-CNjr~~rH'vDM'or~iDooc5Nr- *3, (\]HCDr''-r'-oooocricD(N]iDr~Hincr» oPOOOHHCNJOJOO'T^lDlDlDMDCTiOHHCMfO^inr-CDaiOCNlOO^

'T HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH(NC\l(M(N]CN]CNCMCNCN]CN]fOOOOOOO

HOO^^H’TCO’T^^OUn^^aunHkDHh 'THCO^TCNJCDMnOOCM oloOOOOHHHOJCMOOfO'T^imniOM^ODODlTlOOHCNJOjnM’iniD

OO

i—I rH i—l x—I rH rH x—I rH i—I x—I rH rH i—I rH rH x—I rH rH i—I x—I rH CNI CN] CN] CNJ CN] CN] CN] CNJ CN]

o\° CN] OHrmiOCOO <J'(X)Hin<nHincOHlDCOO'3'CO(N|CDO'3

, CO(N]lDHin OOOOOOrHrHrHCNJCNJCNJOOCOOO^r^r'^riDDDCONDr^t^r'OOCOONCri

u in vo r*

(TJ O O O

dJ o o o

>H CN] CN] CN]

oo cn o h

O O rH rH o o o o

CN] CN] CN CN]

CN oo ^

o o o

CN CN CN

m cd r- co cn o

x—I rH x—I x—I x—I CN o o o o o o

CN CN CN CN CN (N

Os] o

CN

cn oo 'T m CD Is* CN CN CN CN CN CN o o o o o o

CN CN CN CN CN CN

oo cn o H CN co ^

CN CN co OO OO 00 CO o o o o o o o

CN CN CN CN CN CN CN

52
Table

S-3,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

2,

3,

4,

and 5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

mcofr)cri'TO^(MCDVDfYiHCD^)^' <^'5’'^'^^rHinH^)^rocoa)oo

ooHH(\jmrO'7^ri/)'X)i r-'OOONOi—icNro^ior coot—icolocdcocd

<A° ^HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHCNiCMOJCNCMCMCNJCNrOrOnnmrO^

05oo

m

! i

o °

r i

, •—i m

•* -H

1 O C

1

i - Cr» oj p

i c * H

| -H >

O 4J P CO

1 03 Q) U £

V r L_j **-• s*03

i—

I

<D a

Ma

<

o c U a

2 -H -rH 2

Ch U M

^ U

-H *H

c

u

1

1 a> 1—

1

1 a 0) 1 -H *> D 1 CO CO

co m

Cn 1

1 -H X

CO CD

T—

1

1

1 CO H rH 1 -H •HU

1

1

i—

1

-H £

1

1 o

T5C TS

1

1 0

4_) 03 a) 1 05

<—

1

>i

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1

1

i—

1

—

|

U Q) 1 *<H 03 £

•nO

1

1 -P

CO

03 a

i

1

1

1

-HQ

CD 4J <*° 03 ^

QC

CNcoo^r<x>con'rHCDrHr-'(Nr-cNcoincNONLncooooocNONOT-it-H'^rco ooHHHfNj(Njroro^i ^rLr)in^^r'CDOoa^OHOj(Mroqi vDr'COcrio

rH rH H i—I x—I i—I rH i—I i—I i—I i—I i—I i—I i—I <—I <—I i—I i—I i—I CS] CN Os] CN CN] ON] Os] On] On] Cn] 00

Co H^, r'O0r)'X)aN0s]L000c\]L0cjscMi-0O'^raN00r'rH00 00OLncM00L0CNj0N OOOHi-Hi—IHCM(N] 0\](r)r0(O'^, '^, L0LnL0)^3'vD[ [ CDONONOCDrHCNCN

x—I x—I t—I i—I I—I i—I r—I rH x—I I—H i—I x—I i—I i—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I C\] ON] CN] CN] CN] O CM *^p CD [— ON x—I co NO on O CN] ^ NO CO x—I CO LO CD O CO CD o co r~~ O CO CO t—

I

O O O O OOtHHi—

I

t—I H (Nl CN] CN] CN] CN] CO 00 CO CO ^J1 'vT ^ LO LO LO CD NO NO [-*

|—| X 1 1—I I—| I—I 1—1 X I I I X 1 I I I 1 I 1 I 1 X 1 I 1 T 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 I 1 X

1

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55
Table

S-4,

continued.

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•rH ° P CD CD x—I i—I <—I i—I x—I i-H x—I x—I x—I t—I x—I t—I x—I rH x—I i—I i—I x—I <—I 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 0 iniD(X)OO44, OOO4inOHl/)O34'OO0r'O4OHinO34'COO4OO4O

0\oOO)0)OOOOHHHHO«1040J03n4'4’4, imnkDCO^OOCO(D03<J)

04 O O O I—I I I X—I

< 1 T—I 1—I X—| t I X I I—I X—I X I X I X I X I 1—I t—I «—I X I X—I I I I I X I t I X—I X—I I I

'X)HO4, O4OO4'vD'X)HCOVDC4HCDO^)O0OCrtH0O^DC40(X)OO

t*0OHHC\lfnn4’4’4’imn4)O(X)000)OHC4(r)4, ^O03OM(vU0O0)

t—I x—I i—I x—I x—I x—I x—I i—1 x—I x—I t—I i—I i—I x—I x—I i—I 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 CO CD CD CO CO CO

>. P

•rHO

•HM

0O34’O3U)C33n04, OO4COO4CX)0O30O4COlD0O4HHi I H 04 41 0 CO l(NO400004i 4, inLniOlDOCO0O3OHO404, l/)lOOCOa)

I i—I »—I x—I x—I x—I i—I x—I i—I x—I x—I \—I x—I i—I x—I t—I t—I x—I 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04 04

O

0

rHW

q 4

, OO4, OO44, 004, 0H4, 0HinO3mDHlOHr'0O)ir)O4C3MO0 .^o\°OOHH(MO4C4O4CMO4O40(v)(Y)4, 4, 4, ininiDlOOOCOa)O)OOHO4

I)

fji i—I i—It—I (—I i—I i—I x—I x—I x—It—I t—I t—I t—I t—I x—I t—I t—I i—I t—I x—I t—I x—I i—I x—I x—I t—I 04 04 04 04 P

CM o\° 04 mnOO4, 0lOlDO4mOOOOHO44, lDO3O0l/)COHincOOJ0C330O OOOHHHHHHHHHH04040J 04 04C0(Yinf()^4'4'imni^l0lD

H in vo r- 0 o o o

0 o o o

>h 04 04 04

CO O O i—

I

CD CD t-H t-l O O O O

04 04 04 04

04 CO 4* 0 ID O O O O O

04 04 04 04 04

rt—

I

C 3 04

00o

04

03 O H 04 0

rH 04 04 04 04 O O O O O

04 04 04 04 04

m 'X' 04 04 04 o o o

04 04 04

O' 00

04 04 O O

04 04

03 O H 04 0 4-

04 0 0 0 0 0

o o o o o o

04 04 04 04 04 04

56
Table

S-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

2,

3,

4,

and 5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

(0

03 O

03U

D

4-J 03 2

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

l

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

i-hcnvoooo^doocnt—io<TkOOVD^, rs]C\j'^>cr)ooocMLnoLOHcy»r-'X)^Dr' oPOOOHHHCNjro'Tif)Ln^)r'CDcriOHOjmiDU)r^(T\ 0 (M(r)inr'(TiH

CD

4-> 03 CC

OOrOU)COOlOCM(JUDnOlDHlD ,T'T(N]Cy\[^'Tfr)nff)OVg, lDr^OO) <^oooooHHCNCMro ,^rinLn'£>vor^aoo>»a'>OHC\ioo'^rLnvor'-oooH

i—I i—I i—I i—I i—1 i—I i—I x—I t—I i—I x—I x—I x—I i—I x—I «—I x—I x—I x—I CN CN CN CN CN C\] CN1 CN CN OO OO

^ CT\cr>ofNjfr)^co(Y)(Ti^(yimr'H'TO>iDH!noir)ovDrr)criLn(Nj(r>r^'T >y^pc^o'ooooo*—ii-HC\ic\jroro^r^r^rLnix)'X>r-r~'Cococr>cr>OT— iojoo

O O X I 1 1 X I X—I X—I I—I I—1 x—I X—I X—I X 1 t 1 f—I t—I X—I X—I X—I l I X 1 X 1 X 1 X—I x—I CN CN CNJ CNJ CNJ

±4cM

co(^[^oococoH'TC3>cN]iocriHfr)’Tr^CNjinr'OCNjiD<TiCNiiD^nr'Hir)

di°<Ti^cri<^(T»cr>oooHHHCN]CNjcNjCNiof)moTsr'c <T'g'ir)imr)ioiDr'r'

CN O CD CD CD CD CD i—I

«—I H t—I x—I i—I x—I x—I x—I i—I x—I »-H x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—

I

<d

tr> 03u

a)><

a

<

0 I 01 I PI I

cvjncorocriLr)(\icocDco(MHO(Ticri(T>0(M^rr'0'Tco(r)c^cD^c\jcN]CNi dP(T>cr>cr\ooHCMCMro'ci LniD(^[^co(TiHC\ifiv^iDr'COOHfnLr)r-o^H

in OOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHCMOJOJCNCMCMCMOnmOOn^

HHincr\'T03q’cr>inor'Oior'^H(TiMn'TO,)c\iHHH(Njcninr^o^

dpaNC^c^<T>oOrHrHCNoooo^Lninvnr-r-oocy»o<-iCNco^rinvDr-cr)C^o

• • O O O CD x—I i—I i—I i—I x—I i—I x—I i—I x—l»—I i—I x—I i—

I

t—It—I CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN OO

ocyi(Ninc^cNjiDO'TCooocDCNir'C\iO'Csir^cN(»'7(^inHr''^orv 'TCM c/PC^C0Cri(^(riOOHHHCN(N100 00’g"=TininiDlDr^I^CD(^(y\OHHCN00

00 CD CD CD CD CD x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I t—I x—I x—I x—1 x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—H x—I x—I x—I CN] CN] CN] CN CN <^r^o(N ,=TiD(yiCNinr'0^rrs'(ytCNincyicNincocNincoHincDCNinc^oo dpa)CD(^(^(yi(ncT\oooHHHH(N(NCNncooo'q’'T^ininincDiDCDr'

CN

CD CD O CD CD CD CD X—I x—I X—I X—I x—I X—I X I X I X I X I X—I X—I X I X—I X I X—I \—i X I X—I X—I x—I X—I X—

I

oonhootDoooMnncNHHCNfOinho^cNin^'sroMn'g'OTc’iD^ cAPOOOHHCNOOOO^in^r-COCTkCDHCNOOLnVDr— cytr-HCN^COaOCDCN^

I I—I x—I X—I X—I I—I X—I x—I X—I < IHHCMCNCNCNICNCNCNCNOOCOnncO’^^’C’

o^H'Tcocor'Hr'ro(JuDoooco'X)q, ooHO(^coco(T»ocN'^iDcr>mrv' ’C^OOOHHCNCNOOfn'TiniDlOhODC^OHHCNOO^^hCD^OCNfO

O H H H i—I x—I x—I «—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I i—I H x—I x—I CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN 0O 00 OO

CD CD x—I x—I i—I x—l i l x—I i—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—i i—I x—I x—I x—I i—I x—I x—I CN CN CN CN CN CN CN

>i I -P I -H I O I -H I U I 4-> I O I QJ I <-H I H I

I

CD O O X—I x—I X—I X—I X—I X—I X 1 X—I x—I X I X 1 X 1 X 1 X I X—I X—I 1—I X I \

'^rr^x-HvocNr-oox—i cr> r-~ in co cn x—iHCNj^'ThHin^TOMnnoooo cPOOHHCNCNOr)^r'Ti^CDr'COCyiOHC\OV=TinO-COCr\HOO iq, lDCOO(N

in HHHHHHHHHxHHHHxHCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCOOOfnoOOOT'T

, fOincOCNlDOinHlD(NOUnHCD ,C'H(^h'TOO(NHOOOH(NfOinh |c»0OOOHHCNCNnPTq’'3'iniDlDMD03(y\OH(N00'Tin^)h(X)C^OH

. x—I *—I x—I x—I x—I i—I x—I x—I x—l x—I i—I x—I x—I x—I x—l x—I x—I x—I CN CN CN CN CsJ CN CN CN CN CN 00 OO

; ojoomr'Ooor-x-iLncr>^rcocNr'OLnoLncr>inHr-CNco^rx-Hr^^rx-HOD

, c*° CD CD CD CD x—li—Hi—ICNCNCNCOfO'^r^TLOl-OCOVOCOt CO 03 CTi O i—

I

i—I CN OO OO

\<”

x—I x—I X—I I—I X—I I—I X—I X—| I—I X—I X—I I—I x—I I—I x—I x—I x—I X—1 x—I x—I i—I i—I x—I x—I CN CN CN CN CN CN

MiniDr^axTiOHCNOON'iniDr'CD^oHCNoo^in 0300000Hx—lx—IHHHx-Hx—IHx—ICNCNCNCNCNCN (DCDCDOCDOCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDCDOCDO

>-*CNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCN

CDr-CO^OHCNOO’T

CNCNCNCNOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOO CNCNCNCNCNCNCNCNCN

57
Table

S-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

2,

3,

4,

and 5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

^oopr)a'>ir)CMr^roor^LncMO<y>r-r^r~ooooa'>c\iLr><y>Lnoa>»ir)'x>'^r'~

o\° O O <—I i—I CM CO OO ^ LD LT) CP ["— CO CD CTi O i—I CM CO r CO O C\J OO LO f CT3 x—

I

LT)

i—I x—I x—I x—I x—I t—I x—I x—I x—I t—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I CNJ CSl CN CN CN CN C\] CN OO CO OO OO CO CO ^

05oo

0p

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o

•HP

03

co^OLn<T>*^i aocooocoaococr>Lnor~'^, (MoovO'vrcocNjco<\]^Lr)r'~cy»on (AOOOHHHCMCMfOOViT^in^^hhCOCruyiOHCNfO^lD^hCOC^H

x—I t—I x—I i—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I i—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I CNJ CNJ CNJ CNJ CNJ CNJ CNJ CNJ CNJ CNJ CO CNj^r-rH^rr-ocor^ocor^o*5Tr~CNivr)HLnoLno^ocNjooLni—i c^ *X)

63° O O O x—It—It—I CN] CNJ CN] CO PO CO 'T IT) Lf) CD V£> r [ OO OO <03 <T\ O <—I i—I CNJ CO

CO

X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X I X 1 X I X 1 X 1 X I X I X I X 1 X I X I X I X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 X 1 CNJ CNJ CN] CN] CN] HCNJ'TVDCCHCNJ'cr^DCOOCNJCOVD^OCNIlOl^OCNJinCDCNlinC^CO^Oin .HoNoOOOOOi—

I

v-HHHT-HCNJCNlCNJCNJCNJCOCOCOCO^r^^r'vrLniDinVDVDr-r' H CM

X—I X—I X—I I—I X—I I—I X—I T—I X—I X—I X—I X—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—I t—

I

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t—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—

I

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o

CNJ

ctit—I'^tocovdcocnicnjcnjcnjt—iooo'X>r'T—icoLnr-cr^coco^rT—icnr^r'oocri o\oCT>OOt—It-Ht—ICNJOO'vrLO ,sDr'OOCOCr>OCN]CO*^Ln'sDOOCr»T—ICO-vTVDOOOCN]

in O t—It—It—It—I t—I t—I t—I t—I t—I t—

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r—I t—I t—I t—I CNJ CNJ CNJ CM CNJ CNJ CNJ CN] CO CO CO CO CO ^

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03 O

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CNJ CO CO \PlT)iniD[s'[v ODCyiOT-ICN](NJ CO '^J

1 l£> [ 00 C73 CD CN O O t—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—

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CNJ CNJ CN] CNJ CN] CNJ CN] CN] CNJ CNJ CO CO

r^t^cr>T—icNjcooocooinrHNDo^r-CMOinoino^Lnn-ioo^t—

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0\o(^(T>cyiOOOOHCNlCNJOr)CO'3, 'T'3

, ini£)lDr'r^r'CO(TiCyiOHH(N!CO '3

CD CD CD x—I T—I x—I T—I T—I T—I T—1 T—I T—I t—I t—I t—1 t—I I—I t

1 i—1 I—I t—I t-I i—I i—I CN) CN] CNJ CN] CN) CNJ

;d cDinmoor'COT-HLno^coT—icoLnr^-oincr\T—i^rmcr>cocDo^roocNj'x>o

1^o\oncTin(T>nnoOHHHCN)CNJ(N](NJCOCOr)'3’'3 '3''3'imr)lDCDlD[^[^OD M CM O O O CD CD CD X 1 T 1 T I T 1 T—I T 1 T—I T—I T I T I T I T—I T~I T 1 T I T—I T—I T I T—I T—I T—I T I T I T I

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COC\JCO^rHOOlOCOHOCOCOCOC^OCN]'3'OOHlDCNJCy>l^00[^O'3COir)

tA°CTiOOHCNJ(NlCO'3’inCDlDI^a)C^H(NJCO'TlDC'CT>OCM'3'X)CDHCOLr)CD

in OHHHHHHHHHHHHHCNJCNCMCMCNICNICNJCOCOCOncO^^^^r

r^oinoinomcNjcoinT—icT\cD^rcNjocTicr>oooocr\ocN]LncDCN)CDCNjr^^r dpaiooHH(NjCN)coco'3 ininio[^a)crinoHCN)ouniDr'OooHco ,3 iD

'T Ot—I I—It—It—It—It—It—It—It—

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t—It—It—1 CNJ CNJ CN] CNJ CM CN] CN] CNJ CO CO CO CO 00

IDCCCM^DOM'CDCNjr'CNllOHr^CNJOOCOnLnHOOinCNOCDlDin'^COCNJCNI

o\°<T\CTlOOHHH(NICNlCOCO'3 ,3 ininiDlDI^(DCOCy\OHH(N]Cr)

,3 iniOl^

CO O CD x—I t—I t—I t—I T—I t—1 t—I t—I t—I t—I t~

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H i—I t—1 t—I t—I t—I t—

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CNJ CD CD CD I—I T

I T I 1 I I 1 I—I T—I T I T I T—I T

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1—I T—I T I CNJ

0 cocNir^cNjr'COocoin^r'3, '3

' 0 r'C^Hninco(OOMncN]oncT(Ocor"

oJo na^ooHH(Nfcco^riniDr^co(T>o(N(iO'3 inr'CoocN]'3 inr^O(Nj '3 in OOHHHHHHHHHHHHHCNJCNJ(NJCN](\(\CMCOCYJCOCOCO'T'3 ^

iniD(Ticor'OinoiocNiauDM'(NjHOcoiD'3 fO'T'3 inu)coofruDoin

o|i0 criO>criOOHHCNicNicccc'3 iniDr-coconoHCNj(0 '3, incDa)cr\ 0 (Nico

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CO o O O O HHt—It—It—It—It-Ht—It—It—It—It—IHHHHt—

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T—I X I T I T I T I I—I T—I t I T I T—I rH I I rH T—I T“I T~I x I r—I T I T I T I T I T I CN CN (N CN CN CN CN

cj cncyia>H'crioooHco 0 on 0 O5 H^r^O(N 0 Oco'X)ocor'Hinco(N

c 0\o<^o>cnoooorHrHTHCNCNCNCNcococo^r’^, '^rmLninvDvDvDr^[^r'00 M CN OOOrlHHHHHHrlHHHrlHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

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cn co

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58
Table

S-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

2,

3,

4,

and 5

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

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4-> 03 PC dP

03 o\° rH CO

4-1C

dP

CM

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HHHHHHHHHHHHHHH(M(M(M(MCMCM(Nl(MmO)O)C0nn^r

COVOOVOa^*=rOOOaOCOOO'vrO'>COrHCDVO'^CMOOr~inVOininr--COrHCMVO ooi—i<—irHCMCMcom^'^inm'vDt^r^ooo^ooi—icMor)^rLn ,x>['^cNtOrH

rH i—I <—I i—I rH i—I i—I <—I <—I x—I x—I i—I x—I i—I x—I x—I x—I x—I CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO

CM'^rr-rH^rr^-t—ior)^Dcricor'Oi-ncocMODrncocMr-CM<T>^roco^rcMODr^ OOOHHHCM(MN(MrOn^'3''Tlilin^^CCODCO(TiOOHr'J(Mm

t—I x—I x—I t—I x—I x—I I—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I X—I x—I x—I I—I i—I x—I x I x—I X—I i—I x—I CM CM CM CM CM CM H(NjTr'OOHroM, u)[v'OCM'^^)CDO^, r'CriHqi C'Hq, r'H^(T\cM[^ oooooHHHHHCMCMfMCMCMronmro^'sr^imoLO^^^hh

X—I 1 1 X 1 X 1 x—I X—I X 1 X I X—I I—I X—I I 1 I 1 X 1 X 1 X—I x—I X—i X—I X—I X—I x—I X 1 X—I X—I X I X—I X I X—I x—

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O O O x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I x—I CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM

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