# CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

13.1 INTRODUCTION

......................................................................................................... 13-1

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS

............................................................................................................ 13-1

13.3 METHOD

...................................................................................................................... 13-2

13.4 RESULTS

...................................................................................................................... 13-2

LIST OF TABLES

Table 13.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case Forecast

................................................................... 13-4

Table 13.4.2 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

................................................. 13-5

Table 13.4.3 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

................................................. 13-6

Table 13.4.4 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

................................................. 13-7

Table 13.4.5 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

................................................. 13-8

Table 13.4.6 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

................................................. 13-9

Table 13.4.7 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

............................................... 13-10

Table 13.4.8 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 7 Forecast

............................................... 13-11

Table 13.4.9 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

............................ 13-12

Table 13.4.10 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

............................ 13-13

Table 13.4.11 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

............................ 13-14

Table 13.4.12 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

............................ 13-15

Table 13.4.13 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

............................ 13-16

Table 13.4.14 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

............................ 13-17

Table 13.4.15 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 1 Forecast

................................................. 13-18

Table 13.4.16 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 2 Forecast

................................................. 13-19

Table 13.4.17 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 3 Forecast

................................................. 13-20

Table 13.4.18 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 4 Forecast

................................................. 13-21

Table 13.4.19 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 5 Forecast

................................................. 13-22

Table 13.4.20 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 6 Forecast

................................................. 13-23

13-i

# CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION

DOE analyzed the effects of residential heating products standard levels on the electric

and gas utility industry using a variant of the DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). a 

# NEMS is a public domain, multi-sectored, partial

equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector. Each year, DOE/EIA uses NEMS to produce a

baseline energy forecast for the United States, the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) . The AEO for

2009 (AEO2009) forecasts energy supply and demand through 2030. 1 

# DOE used a variant of this

model, referred to here as NEMS-BT, b 

# to account for the impacts of heating products energy

conservation standards on the baseline energy forecast. DOE’s utility impact analysis consists of

a comparison between model results for the AEO2009 Reference Case and for policy cases in

which standards are in place, and applies the same basic set of assumptions as the AEO2009

.

The utility impact analysis reports the changes in electric installed capacity and

generation that result for each trial standard level (TSL) by plant type, as well as changes in

residential electricity and natural gas consumption. The AEO2009 reference case corresponds to

medium economic growth. See appendix 13A for high and low growth forecast data.

13.2 ASSUMPTIONS

NEMS-BT has several advantages that have led to its adoption as the forecasting tool in

the analysis of energy conservation standards. NEMS-BT uses a set of assumptions that are well

known and fairly transparent, due to the exposure and scrutiny each AEO receives. In addition,

the comprehensiveness of NEMS-BT permits the modeling of interactions among the various

energy supply and demand sectors, producing a complete picture of the effects of energy

conservation standards. Perhaps most importantly, NEMS-BT can be used to estimate marginal

effects, which yield a better estimate of the actual impact of energy conservation standards than

considering only average effects.

The utility impact analysis uses the assumptions of the AEO2009 and treats water heater,

direct heating equipment, and pool heater energy conservation standards as variations in policy.

a 

# For more information on NEMS, refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003 , DOE/EIA-0581(2003),

March, 2003.

b 

# DOE/EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the model without any

modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and the model is run

under various policy scenarios that are variations on DOE/EIA assumptions, DOE refers to it by the name NEMSBT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been performed). NEMS-BT

was previously called NEMS-BRS.

13-1

# The effect of the policy is calculated as the difference between the AEO2009 Reference Case and

each proposed standard case. Because the implementation of standards reduces total natural gas

and electricity demand by less than one percent in any given year, its effect cannot be detected

directly in the simulations. Therefore, DOE modeled larger reductions in demand and

interpolated results for the TSLs.

13.3 METHOD

DOE used the national energy savings developed in the national impact analysis (chapter

10) for each TSL as input to NEMS-BT. The magnitude of the energy decrement that would be

required for NEMS-BT to produce stable results out of the range of numerical noise is larger

than the highest efficiency standard under consideration. Therefore, DOE estimated results

corresponding to each TSL using interpolation. DOE ran higher energy use reduction levels in

NEMS-BT, representing multipliers of each TSL, and used these outputs to linearly interpolate

the results to estimate actual changes in generation and capacity due to the standard.

Policy runs are executed by reducing electricity and natural gas consumption in the

NEMS-BT Residential Demand Module. Energy use reductions are applied to the residential

water heating end use for water heaters and pool heaters and to the residential heating end use for

direct heating equipment. The savings are divided evenly among the U.S. Census divisions.

Although the current time horizon of NEMS-BT is 2030, other parts of the residential

heating products energy conservation standards analysis extend to the year 2045 for water

heaters, and 2043 for direct heating equipment and pool heaters. It is not feasible to extend the

forecast period of NEMS-BT for the purposes of this analysis, nor does DOE/EIA have an

approved method for extrapolation of many outputs beyond 2030. While it might seem

reasonable to make simple linear extrapolations of results, in practice this is not advisable

because outputs could be contradictory. For example, changes in the fuel mix implied by

extrapolations of those outputs could be inconsistent with the extrapolation of marginal

emissions factors. An analysis of various trends sufficiently detailed to guarantee consistency is

beyond the scope of this work, and, in any case, would involve a great deal of uncertainty.

Therefore, all extrapolations beyond 2030 are simple replications of year 2030 results. While this

may seem unreasonable in some instances, in this way results are guaranteed to be consistent. To

emphasize the extrapolated results wherever they appear, they are shaded in gray to distinguish

them from actual NEMS-BT results.

13.4 RESULTS

The utility impact analysis reports NEMS-BT forecasts for residential-sector energy

consumption and electricity generation and installed capacity. Results are presented in five-year

increments to year 2030. Beyond year 2030, an extrapolation to 2045 for water heaters, and 2043

13-2

# for direct heating equipment and pool heaters for each proposed TSL represents a simple

replication of the year 2030 results.

The results from the AEO2009 Reference Case are shown in Table 13.4.1.

A separate set of TSLs is modeled for each product. The results from the water heater

TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.2 through 13.4.8, the results from the direct heating equipment

TSLs are presented in Tables 13.4.9 through 13.4.14, and the results from the pool heater TSLs

are presented in Tables 13.4.15 through 13.4.20. Each table shows forecasts using interpolated

results, as described in section 13.3, for total U.S. electricity generation and installed capacity.

The proposed residential water heater TSLs reduce both electricity and natural gas

consumption compared to the AEO2009 Reference Case. Water heaters provide the most

significant energy savings of all the residential heating products. The electricity savings

predicted by the NIA Model range from 0.12 to 3.71 percent of total residential electricity

consumption by year 2030. The natural gas savings predicted by the NIA model range from 0.61

to 4.27 percent of total residential natural gas consumption by year 2030.

The proposed direct heating equipment TSLs reduce natural gas consumption, but modest

increases can be seen in residential electricity consumption compared to the AEO2009 Reference

Case. The natural gas savings predicted by the NIA model range from 0.11 to 0.74 percent of

total residential natural gas consumption by year 2030. The impacts on electricity increase use by

a range of 0.00 to 0.03 percent of total residential electricity consumption by year 2030.

The proposed pool heater TSLs reduce natural gas consumption, but slight increases can

be seen in residential electricity consumption compared to the AEO2009 Reference Case. The

natural gas savings predicted by the NIA model range from 0.01 to 0.17 percent of total

residential natural gas consumption by year 2030.

13-3

# Table 13.4.1 AEO2009 Reference Case Forecast



# NEMS-BT Results: AEO2009 Reference

Residential Sector Energy Consumption 1 

# 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Sales (TWh) 2 

# 1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661

Natural Gas (EJ) 5.23 5.34 5.21 5.26 5.32 5.28

Other (EJ) 1.98 1.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69

Natural Gas (Quads) 4.96 5.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00

Other (Quads) 3



# Total U.S. Electric Generation 4 

# 1.88 1.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60

Coal (TWh) 2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305

Gas (TWh) 753 775 647 714 908 979

Petroleum (TWh) 123 56 47 49 49 50

Nuclear (TWh) 782 809 831 876 881 890

Renewables (TWh) 357 468 645 707 771 797

Total (TWh) 5



# Installed Generating Capacity 6 

# 4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021

Coal (GW) 314 325 331 333 334 345

Other Fossil (GW) 7 

# 439 471 443 452 499 542

Nuclear (GW) 100 101 104 110 110 110

Renewables (GW) 100 134 171 176 182 188

Total (GW) 8



# Residential Average Energy Prices 9 

# 952 1,030 1,049 1,072 1,126 1,185

Electricity (¢/kWh) 10.00 9.77 10.55 11.08 11.24 11.79

Natural Gas ($/GJ) 12.39 10.61 10.75 11.90 12.00 13.27

Petroleum Products ($/GJ) 16.57 12.66 20.46 23.24 23.84 25.48

Natural Gas ($/MBtu) 13.07 11.19 11.34 12.56 12.66 14.00

Petroleum Products ($/MBtu) 17.48 13.36 21.59 24.52 25.15 26.88

1 

# Comparable to Table A2 of AEO2009: Energy Consumption, Residential

2 

# Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electricity Sales by Sector

3 

# Includes distillate fuel, commercial fuel, kerosene, LPG, motor gasoline, coal, and renewable energy

4 

# Comparable to Table A8 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators

5 

# Excludes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators and "Other" cogenerators

6 

# Comparable to Table A9 of AEO2009: Electric Generators and Cogenerators Capability

7 

# Includes "Other Gaseous Fuels" cogenerators

8 

# Excludes Pumped Storage and Fuel Cells

9 

# Comparable to Table A3 of AEO2009: Residential



# 13-4Table 13.4.2 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,659Electricity Sales (TWh)0.000.00 -0.17 -1.01 -1.73 -2.07 -2.19 -2.25 -2.29Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.34 5.21 5.25 5.29 5.24Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.003 -0.016 -0.027 -0.032 -0.034 -0.036 -0.037Other (EJ)1.981.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69Other (EJ)0.0000.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.06 4.94 4.97 5.01 4.97Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.003 -0.015 -0.026 -0.030 -0.033 -0.034 -0.035Other (Quads)1.881.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60Other (Quads)0.0000.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,202 2,304Coal (TWh)0.00-0.06 -0.25 -0.42 -1.03 -1.39 -1.39 -1.39 -1.39Gas (TWh)753 775 647 713 907 978Gas (TWh)0.0000.088 0.003 -0.777 -1.097 -0.872 -0.872 -0.872 -0.872Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.000 0.000 0.000 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.000 0.000 -0.132 -0.166 -0.368 -0.368 -0.368 -0.368Renewables (TWh)357 468 645 707 771 797Renewables (TWh)0.000-0.036 -0.072 -0.158 -0.359 -0.312 -0.312 -0.312 -0.312Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,543 4,809 5,018Total (TWh)0.000-0.003 -0.319 -1.486 -2.623 -2.944 -2.944 -2.944 -2.944Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.4Coal (GW)0.0000.000 -0.032 -0.029 -0.026 -0.179 -0.179 -0.179 -0.179Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5 443.3 451.8 499.4 542.5Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.001 0.129 0.046 -0.012 0.141 0.141 0.141 0.141Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.000 0.000 -0.023 -0.023 -0.043 -0.043 -0.043 -0.043Renewables (GW)99.5133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.000 -0.036 -0.034 -0.027 -0.048 -0.048 -0.048 -0.048Total (GW)952.31,030.2 1,049.5 1,071.5 1,125.8 1,185.2Total (GW)0.0000.001 0.061 -0.041 -0.088 -0.129 -0.129 -0.129 -0.12913-5Table 13.4.3 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2044Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,476 1,569 1,658Electricity Sales (TWh)0.000.00 -0.21 -1.29 -2.21 -2.66 -2.81 -2.88 -2.92Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.34 5.21 5.24 5.28 5.23Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.004 -0.026 -0.042 -0.050 -0.054 -0.056 -0.058Other (EJ)1.981.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.68Other (EJ)0.0000.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.06 4.94 4.97 5.00 4.95Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.004 -0.024 -0.040 -0.048 -0.051 -0.053 -0.055Other (Quads)1.881.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60Other (Quads)0.0000.000 0.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,197 2,201 2,303Coal (TWh)0.00-0.08 -0.38 -0.64 -1.56 -2.11 -2.11 -2.11 -2.11Gas (TWh)753 775 647 713 906 978Gas (TWh)0.000.13 0.01 -1.19 -1.67 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32 -1.32Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50Petroleum (TWh)0.000.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 889Nuclear (TWh)0.000.00 0.00 -0.20 -0.25 -0.56 -0.56 -0.56 -0.56Renewables (TWh)357 468 645 707 770 797Renewables (TWh)0.00-0.06 -0.11 -0.24 -0.55 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47 -0.47Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,542 4,808 5,017Total (TWh)0.00-0.01 -0.49 -2.27 -3.99 -4.46 -4.46 -4.46 -4.46Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.3Coal (GW)0.0000.000 -0.049 -0.044 -0.040 -0.272 -0.272 -0.272 -0.272Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5 443.4 451.9 499.4 542.6Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.002 0.196 0.070 -0.018 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.214Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 109.9Nuclear (GW)0.0000.000 0.000 -0.036 -0.035 -0.065 -0.065 -0.065 -0.065Renewables (GW)99.5133.5 171.0 176.0 182.3 188.2Renewables (GW)0.0000.000 -0.055 -0.053 -0.041 -0.072 -0.072 -0.072 -0.072Total (GW)952.31,030.2 1,049.5 1,071.4 1,125.8 1,185.1Total (GW)0.0000.002 0.092 -0.062 -0.134 -0.195 -0.195 -0.195 -0.19513-6Table 13.4.4 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2044ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4751,5671,656Electricity Sales (TWh)0.000.00-0.40-2.45-4.19-5.03-5.32-5.46-5.55Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.245.285.23Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.004 -0.026 -0.042 -0.050 -0.054 -0.056 -0.058Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.68Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.975.004.95Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.004 -0.024 -0.040 -0.048 -0.051 -0.053 -0.055Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1972,2012,303Coal (TWh)0.00-0.09-0.43-0.72-1.78-2.40-2.40-2.40-2.40Gas (TWh)753775647713906977Gas (TWh)0.000.150.01-1.34-1.89-1.50-1.50-1.50-1.50Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.000.000.000.000.050.000.000.000.00Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881889Nuclear (TWh)0.000.000.00-0.23-0.29-0.63-0.63-0.63-0.63Renewables (TWh)357468645707770796Renewables (TWh)0.00-0.06-0.12-0.27-0.62-0.54-0.54-0.54-0.54Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3074,5414,8075,016Total (TWh)0.00-0.01-0.55-2.56-4.53-5.07-5.07-5.07-5.07Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0330.9333.3333.9344.3Coal (GW)0.0000.000 -0.055 -0.050 -0.046 -0.309 -0.309 -0.309 -0.309Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.4451.9499.4542.6Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0020.2220.079 -0.0200.2440.2440.2440.244Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3109.9Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.000 -0.040 -0.040 -0.074 -0.074 -0.074 -0.074Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.0176.0182.3188.2Renewables (GW)0.0000.000 -0.062 -0.060 -0.046 -0.082 -0.082 -0.082 -0.082Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.5 1,071.4 1,125.7 1,185.1Total (GW)0.0000.0020.104 -0.070 -0.152 -0.221 -0.221 -0.221 -0.22113-7Table 13.4.5 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2044ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4061,4741,5651,654Electricity Sales (TWh)0.000.00-0.55-3.36-5.73-6.89-7.30-7.49-7.62Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.245.285.23Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.004 -0.026 -0.042 -0.050 -0.054 -0.056 -0.058Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.68Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.975.004.95Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.004 -0.024 -0.040 -0.048 -0.051 -0.053 -0.055Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1972,2012,302Coal (TWh)0.00-0.10-0.47-0.79-1.94-2.62-2.62-2.62-2.62Gas (TWh)753775647713906977Gas (TWh)0.000.160.01-1.46-2.07-1.64-1.64-1.64-1.64Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.000.000.000.000.050.000.000.000.00Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881889Nuclear (TWh)0.000.000.00-0.25-0.31-0.69-0.69-0.69-0.69Renewables (TWh)357468645707770796Renewables (TWh)0.00-0.07-0.14-0.30-0.68-0.59-0.59-0.59-0.59Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3074,5414,8075,015Total (TWh)0.00-0.01-0.60-2.79-4.95-5.54-5.54-5.54-5.54Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0330.9333.2333.9344.3Coal (GW)0.0000.000 -0.060 -0.054 -0.050 -0.338 -0.338 -0.338 -0.338Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.4451.9499.4542.7Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0030.2410.086 -0.0220.2660.2660.2660.266Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3109.9Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.000 -0.044 -0.044 -0.080 -0.080 -0.080 -0.080Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.0176.0182.2188.2Renewables (GW)0.0000.000 -0.068 -0.065 -0.050 -0.090 -0.090 -0.090 -0.090Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.5 1,071.4 1,125.7 1,185.1Total (GW)0.0000.0030.114 -0.076 -0.166 -0.242 -0.242 -0.242 -0.24213-8Table 13.4.6 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 5 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption202520302035 2042 2044ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4061,4711,5611,648Electricity Sales (TWh)0.000.00-1.01-6.15 -10.48 -12.59 -13.33 -13.81 -13.92Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.245.275.22Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.005 -0.029 -0.048 -0.056 -0.060 -0.064 -0.065Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.691.68Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.964.994.95Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.005 -0.027 -0.045 -0.053 -0.057 -0.061 -0.062Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1372,1962,1992,300Coal (TWh)0.00-0.13-0.90-2.01-3.95-4.53-4.53-4.53-4.53Gas (TWh)753775649713905976Gas (TWh)0.00-0.091.69-1.29-2.81-2.98-2.98-2.98-2.98Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.000.000.000.000.090.000.000.000.00Nuclear (TWh)782809831876880889Nuclear (TWh)0.000.000.00-0.47-0.58-1.16-1.16-1.16-1.16Renewables (TWh)357468643705768794Renewables (TWh)0.00-0.09-2.12-2.19-2.71-2.66-2.66-2.66-2.66Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3074,5384,8025,010Total (TWh)0.00-0.32-1.33-5.97-9.96 -11.32 -11.32 -11.32 -11.32Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0330.8333.1333.7344.1Coal (GW)0.0000.000 -0.192 -0.188 -0.188 -0.539 -0.539 -0.539 -0.539Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.5451.9499.2542.6Other Fossil (GW)0.000 -0.0170.3480.100 -0.1570.2080.2080.2080.208Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.2110.2109.9Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.000 -0.080 -0.080 -0.142 -0.142 -0.142 -0.142Renewables (GW)99.5133.5170.6175.6181.8187.8Renewables (GW)0.000 -0.004 -0.497 -0.488 -0.454 -0.484 -0.484 -0.484 -0.484Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.1 1,070.8 1,125.0 1,184.3Total (GW)0.000 -0.021 -0.341 -0.656 -0.879 -0.956 -0.956 -0.956 -0.95613-9Table 13.4.7 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 6 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2044ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4021,4481,5221,602Electricity Sales (TWh)0.000.00-4.78 -29.00 -49.45 -59.48 -63.09 -64.90 -66.11Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.315.26Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.008 -0.011 -0.012 -0.012 -0.013 -0.013Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.69Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.985.034.99Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.007 -0.011 -0.011 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1362,1922,1932,294Coal (TWh)0.00-0.06-2.45-5.73-9.67 -10.54 -10.54 -10.54 -10.54Gas (TWh)753775653712902972Gas (TWh)0.000.375.53-1.56-6.32-7.19-7.19-7.19-7.19Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.000.000.000.000.120.000.000.000.00Nuclear (TWh)782809831875880887Nuclear (TWh)0.000.000.00-1.09-1.42-2.69-2.69-2.69-2.69Renewables (TWh)357468639701764790Renewables (TWh)0.00-0.27-6.22-6.15-7.37-7.04-7.04-7.04-7.04Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3054,5294,7874,994Total (TWh)0.000.04-3.14 -14.53 -24.67 -27.46 -27.46 -27.46 -27.46Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0330.5332.8333.4343.4Coal (GW)0.000.00-0.53-0.48-0.49-1.19-1.19-1.19-1.19Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.4444.0452.0499.0542.8Other Fossil (GW)0.00-0.090.840.24-0.390.360.360.360.36Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.1110.1109.7Nuclear (GW)0.000.000.00-0.19-0.19-0.33-0.33-0.33-0.33Renewables (GW)99.5133.5169.6174.6180.9186.9Renewables (GW)0.00-0.05-1.52-1.51-1.41-1.44-1.44-1.44-1.44Total (GW)952.3 1,030.1 1,048.2 1,069.6 1,123.4 1,182.7Total (GW)0.00-0.14-1.22-1.94-2.47-2.59-2.59-2.59-2.5913-10Table 13.4.8 Water Heaters Trial Standard Level 7 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2044ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4021,4471,5201,599Electricity Sales (TWh)0.000.00-4.93 -29.93 -51.12 -61.58 -65.35 -67.23 -68.51Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.195.155.135.05Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.019 -0.114 -0.188 -0.225 -0.244 -0.257 -0.266Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.711.691.67Other (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.008 -0.014 -0.016 -0.018 -0.019 -0.019Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.924.884.864.79Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.018 -0.108 -0.179 -0.214 -0.231 -0.244 -0.252Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.621.601.58Other (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.008 -0.013 -0.015 -0.017 -0.018 -0.018Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1332,1862,1832,284Coal (TWh)0.00-0.13-5.01 -11.66 -19.58 -21.48 -21.48 -21.48 -21.48Gas (TWh)753776658711895964Gas (TWh)0.000.7511.32-3.17 -12.81 -14.65 -14.65 -14.65 -14.65Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.000.000.000.000.230.000.000.000.00Nuclear (TWh)782809831874878885Nuclear (TWh)0.000.000.00-2.21-2.88-5.48-5.48-5.48-5.48Renewables (TWh)357467632694756783Renewables (TWh)0.00-0.55 -12.73 -12.52 -14.94 -14.34 -14.34 -14.34 -14.34Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3024,5144,7624,965Total (TWh)0.000.08-6.42 -29.56 -49.97 -55.95 -55.95 -55.95 -55.95Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0329.9332.3332.9342.2Coal (GW)0.000.00-1.09-0.98-0.98-2.42-2.42-2.42-2.42Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.3444.9452.3498.6543.1Other Fossil (GW)0.00-0.181.710.49-0.780.740.740.740.74Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1109.9109.9109.3Nuclear (GW)0.000.000.00-0.38-0.38-0.68-0.68-0.68-0.68Renewables (GW)99.5133.4168.0173.0179.4185.4Renewables (GW)0.00-0.09-3.12-3.06-2.86-2.92-2.92-2.92-2.92Total (GW)952.3 1,029.9 1,046.9 1,067.6 1,120.9 1,180.0Total (GW)0.00-0.28-2.50-3.94-5.01-5.28-5.28-5.28-5.2813-11Table 13.4.9 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0180.0480.0730.0790.0760.0750.076Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.315.27Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.005 -0.006 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.69Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.995.044.99Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.000 -0.0010.019 -0.0190.017 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034Gas (TWh)753775647714908979Gas (TWh)0.0000.0040.0090.0570.0920.1790.1790.1790.179Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0020.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.002 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0070.0530.0390.0490.0490.0490.049Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,021Total (TWh)0.0000.0030.0350.0920.1520.1770.1770.1770.177Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0020.002 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0010.0040.0030.0160.0190.0190.0190.019Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0050.0050.0120.0130.0130.0130.013Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0010.0090.0100.0300.0210.0210.0210.02113-12Table 13.4.10 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0180.0480.0730.0790.0760.0750.075Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.315.27Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.004 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.69Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.995.034.99Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.004 -0.005 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.000 -0.0020.021 -0.0210.019 -0.038 -0.038 -0.038 -0.038Gas (TWh)753775647714908979Gas (TWh)0.0000.0050.0100.0640.1020.2010.2010.2010.201Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0030.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.002 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019 -0.019Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0080.0590.0440.0550.0550.0550.055Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,021Total (TWh)0.0000.0030.0380.1020.1700.1980.1980.1980.198Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0020.002 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0010.0040.0040.0180.0210.0210.0210.021Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0050.0050.0130.0150.0150.0150.015Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0010.0100.0110.0330.0230.0230.0230.02313-13Table 13.4.11 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0180.0470.0730.0790.0760.0750.075Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.315.27Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.002 -0.005 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.69Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.995.034.99Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.002 -0.004 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.007Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.000 -0.0020.025 -0.0250.023 -0.047 -0.047 -0.047 -0.047Gas (TWh)753775647714908979Gas (TWh)0.0000.0060.0120.0780.1250.2480.2480.2480.248Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0030.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.003 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0090.0720.0530.0670.0670.0670.067Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,021Total (TWh)0.0000.0040.0470.1250.2080.2450.2450.2450.245Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0030.003 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013 -0.013Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0010.0050.0040.0220.0260.0260.0260.026Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0060.0060.0160.0180.0180.0180.018Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0010.0120.0130.0410.0280.0280.0280.02813-14Table 13.4.12 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0690.1800.2770.3010.2890.2860.286Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.305.26Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.003 -0.009 -0.014 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.68Other (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.985.034.99Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.003 -0.009 -0.013 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014 -0.014Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.000 -0.006 -0.015 -0.0710.049 -0.075 -0.075 -0.075 -0.075Gas (TWh)753775647714908979Gas (TWh)0.0000.0100.0620.1610.2470.4770.4770.4770.477Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0100.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0060.015 -0.038 -0.038 -0.038 -0.038Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0240.1550.1080.1220.1220.1220.122Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,021Total (TWh)0.0000.0040.0710.2510.4280.4860.4860.4860.486Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0040.004 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023 -0.023Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.004 -0.005 -0.0030.0280.0350.0350.0350.035Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0110.0110.0300.0330.0330.0330.033Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,126.0 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0040.0060.0120.0610.0410.0410.0410.04113-15Table 13.4.13 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 5 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0760.1990.3080.3350.3240.3200.321Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.255.305.26Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.004 -0.010 -0.015 -0.017 -0.016 -0.016 -0.016Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.691.68Other (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.985.034.98Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.004 -0.009 -0.014 -0.016 -0.015 -0.015 -0.015Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.000 -0.007 -0.016 -0.0780.054 -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.083Gas (TWh)753775647714908980Gas (TWh)0.0000.0110.0680.1770.2720.5280.5280.5280.528Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0110.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0070.017 -0.042 -0.042 -0.042 -0.042Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0260.1700.1190.1350.1350.1350.135Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,022Total (TWh)0.0000.0040.0780.2760.4720.5370.5370.5370.537Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0040.004 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.005 -0.006 -0.0030.0310.0380.0380.0380.038Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0120.0120.0330.0370.0370.0370.037Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,126.0 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0050.0070.0130.0680.0450.0450.0450.04513-16Table 13.4.14 Direct Heating Equipment Trial Standard Level 6 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.1040.2730.4220.4590.4430.4380.439Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.205.245.285.24Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.009 -0.023 -0.036 -0.039 -0.038 -0.037 -0.037Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.711.691.68Other (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.002 -0.006 -0.009 -0.010 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.934.975.014.96Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.008 -0.022 -0.034 -0.037 -0.036 -0.035 -0.035Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.621.601.59Other (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.002 -0.006 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.000 -0.017 -0.040 -0.1900.130 -0.200 -0.200 -0.200 -0.200Gas (TWh)753775647714909980Gas (TWh)0.0000.0270.1670.4300.6571.2671.2671.2671.267Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0270.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0170.040 -0.100 -0.100 -0.100 -0.100Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0630.4130.2870.3230.3230.3230.323Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5454,8135,022Total (TWh)0.0000.0100.1900.6701.1401.2901.2901.2901.290Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.5Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0030.0110.011 -0.061 -0.061 -0.061 -0.061Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.5542.5Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.011 -0.014 -0.0080.0740.0920.0920.0920.092Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.4188.4Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0280.0290.0790.0880.0880.0880.088Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,126.1 1,185.4Total (GW)0.0000.0110.0170.0320.1630.1090.1090.1090.10913-17Table 13.4.15 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 1 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.325.27Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.69Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.995.045.00Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.0000.0000.001 -0.002 -0.001 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Gas (TWh)753775647714908979Gas (TWh)0.0000.0000.0020.0060.0070.0150.0150.0150.015Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0010.0050.0030.0030.0030.0030.003Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,021Total (TWh)0.0000.0000.0030.0090.0100.0130.0130.0130.013Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0000.0010.0020.0020.0020.002Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0010.0010.0010.0010.001Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0010.0020.0020.0020.0020.00213-18Table 13.4.16 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 2 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.325.27Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.69Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.995.045.00Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.0000.0000.001 -0.003 -0.001 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006Gas (TWh)753775647714908979Gas (TWh)0.0000.0000.0040.0110.0120.0250.0250.0250.025Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0010.0080.0050.0060.0060.0060.006Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,021Total (TWh)0.0000.0000.0060.0160.0170.0230.0230.0230.023Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0010.0020.0030.0030.0030.003Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0010.0020.0020.0020.0020.002Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0000.0020.0020.0040.0030.0030.0030.00313-19Table 13.4.17 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 3 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference CaseExtrapolation2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy ConsumptionElectricity Sales (TWh)1,359 1,403 1,407 1,477 1,571 1,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.000 0.004 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.011Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.34 5.21 5.26 5.31 5.27Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Other (EJ)1.981.87 1.74 1.72 1.70 1.69Other (EJ)0.0000.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.06 4.94 4.99 5.04 5.00Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002Other (Quads)1.881.77 1.65 1.63 1.61 1.60Other (Quads)0.0000.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,014 2,022 2,138 2,198 2,203 2,305Coal (TWh)0.0000.001 0.003 -0.011 -0.004 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018Gas (TWh)753 775 647 714 908 979Gas (TWh)0.0000.001 0.012 0.034 0.037 0.079 0.079 0.079 0.079Petroleum (TWh)123 56 47 49 49 50Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000Nuclear (TWh)782 809 831 876 881 890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.000 0.000 0.000 0.002 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008Renewables (TWh)357 468 645 707 771 797Renewables (TWh)0.000-0.001 0.004 0.025 0.017 0.019 0.019 0.019 0.019Total (TWh)4,029 4,130 4,308 4,544 4,812 5,021Total (TWh)0.0000.001 0.018 0.049 0.052 0.072 0.072 0.072 0.072Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0 331.0 333.3 333.9 344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005 -0.005Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5 443.2 451.8 499.4 542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.001 0.003 0.002 0.005 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2 104.1 110.3 110.3 110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Renewables (GW)99.5133.5 171.1 176.1 182.3 188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.000 0.002 0.002 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006 0.006Total (GW)952.31,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.001 0.006 0.005 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.011 0.01113-20Table 13.4.18 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 4 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0040.0090.0110.0110.0110.0110.011Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.315.27Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.69Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.995.045.00Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.000 -0.001 -0.010 -0.014 -0.003 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034 -0.034Gas (TWh)753775647714908979Gas (TWh)0.0000.0020.0210.0350.0390.0860.0860.0860.086Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0010.003 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0020.0270.0130.0210.0210.0210.021Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,021Total (TWh)0.0000.0010.0130.0490.0520.0640.0640.0640.064Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0010.001 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0010.0030.0020.0060.0120.0120.0120.012Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0020.0020.0060.0060.0060.0060.006Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0010.0050.0050.0130.0110.0110.0110.01113-21Table 13.4.19 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 5 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0040.0090.0110.0110.0110.0110.011Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.315.27Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.69Other (EJ)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.995.045.00Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.003 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 -0.004Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.000 -0.001 -0.014 -0.019 -0.004 -0.046 -0.046 -0.046 -0.046Gas (TWh)753775647714908979Gas (TWh)0.0000.0030.0290.0480.0540.1170.1170.1170.117Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0010.004 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012 -0.012Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0020.0370.0180.0280.0280.0280.028Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,021Total (TWh)0.0000.0010.0170.0670.0720.0870.0870.0870.087Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0010.001 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0010.0040.0030.0090.0170.0170.0170.017Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001 -0.001Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0030.0030.0080.0080.0080.0080.008Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0010.0070.0070.0180.0150.0150.0150.01513-22Table 13.4.20 Pool Heaters Trial Standard Level 6 ForecastNEMS-BT Results:Difference from AEO2009 Reference Case2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20302005 2010 2015 2020 2025Residential Sector Energy ConsumptionResidential Sector Energy Consumption20302035 2040 2042ExtrapolationElectricity Sales (TWh)1,3591,4031,4071,4771,5711,661Electricity Sales (TWh)0.0000.0000.0030.0080.0100.0100.0100.0100.010Natural Gas (EJ)5.235.345.215.265.315.27Natural Gas (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.003 -0.007 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009 -0.009Other (EJ)1.981.871.741.721.701.69Other (EJ)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002Natural Gas (Quads)4.965.064.944.985.034.99Natural Gas (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.003 -0.007 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008 -0.008Other (Quads)1.881.771.651.631.611.60Other (Quads)0.0000.000 -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002Total U.S. Electric GenerationTotal U.S. Electric GenerationCoal (TWh)2,0142,0222,1382,1982,2032,305Coal (TWh)0.000 -0.003 -0.030 -0.040 -0.009 -0.098 -0.098 -0.098 -0.098Gas (TWh)753775647714908979Gas (TWh)0.0000.0050.0610.1020.1140.2490.2490.2490.249Petroleum (TWh)1235647494950Petroleum (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000Nuclear (TWh)782809831876881890Nuclear (TWh)0.0000.0000.0000.0020.009 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026 -0.026Renewables (TWh)357468645707771797Renewables (TWh)0.0000.0000.0050.0780.0380.0600.0600.0600.060Total (TWh)4,0294,1304,3084,5444,8125,021Total (TWh)0.0000.0020.0360.1430.1520.1860.1860.1860.186Installed Generating CapacityInstalled Generating CapacityCoal (GW)313.8325.0331.0333.3333.9344.6Coal (GW)0.0000.0000.0010.0030.003 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017 -0.017Other Fossil (GW)438.9470.5443.2451.8499.4542.4Other Fossil (GW)0.0000.0020.0080.0060.0180.0350.0350.0350.035Nuclear (GW)100.1101.2104.1110.3110.3110.0Nuclear (GW)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003 -0.003Renewables (GW)99.5133.5171.1176.1182.3188.3Renewables (GW)0.0000.0000.0060.0060.0170.0160.0160.0160.016Total (GW)952.3 1,030.2 1,049.4 1,071.5 1,125.9 1,185.3Total (GW)0.0000.0020.0140.0140.0370.0320.0320.0320.03213-23

# REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009 with Projections to

2030 , 2009. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA-0383(2009).

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo / >

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