# E **C** 

# / **R Incorporated Providing Environmental Technical Support Since 1989** 

501 Eastowne Dr., Suite 250  Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27514 Telephone: (919) 484

-0222  Fax: (919) 484

-0122 

# MEMORANDUM

**DATE:** January

30 , 201 5

**SUBJECT:** Residential Wood Heater Cost Effectiveness Analysis

**FROM:** Jill Mozier, EC/R Inc.
**TO:** David Cole, EPA/OAQPS

Gil Wood, EPA/OAQPS Amanda Aldridge, EPA/OAQPS The purpose of this memorandum is to present our cost effectiveness (CE) analyses for the PM emission reductions estimated to occur under the final New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for Residential Wood Heaters. The final stepped standards and their underlying emission and cost assumptions have already been summarized in the projected emissions 1


# , manufacturer cost impacts 2 

# and unit cost3 

# memos. This memo will explain how we applied the derived cost and PM emission estimates (based on our already-documented assumptions) in our CE analyses.
**I. Application of Cost Estimates to C**  **ost E**  **ffectiveness Analysis** 

**A. NSPS** 

**- Related R&D, Certification, and Reporting & Recordkeeping Costs**  As noted in our manufacturer cost impacts memo, one round of R&D is assumed

– beginning in 201 5 , the rule’s effective date, and ending in 2020 , the year of the final Step 2 PM standard. We made assumptions regarding the number of model lines that would undergo R&D and assume the related costs. In cases where we assumed less than 100% of the models would require R&D (e.g., wood stoves, pellet stoves and hydronic heaters), this was based on the percentage of models estimated to already meet the 2020 Step 2 PM limit, as explained in both the manufacturer cost impacts memo and the projected emissions memo

. Itis important to note that manufacturers will likely consolidate their model lines, focusing on models able to achieve the limit, rather than incur R&D costs for every currently non-compliant model line. Therefore fewer models than we assumed in our cost estimates will likely undergo R&D, which will decrease cost impacts , potentially significantly. But since we do not have data to suggest the degree of consolidation which may occur, we assumed all non-compliant models would remain in existence and incur R&D costs , in order to avoid underestimating costs

. Thus , in our CE analys es we assumed the following percentages and models would incur NSPS

-related R&D costs beginning in 201 5 :

1 

## Memorandum to USEPA from EC/R, Inc. Estimated Emissions from Wood Heaters. January 2015

. 2 

## Memorandum to USEPA from EC/R, Inc. Estimated Wood Heater Manufacturer Cost Impacts. January 201 5

. 3 

## Memorandum to USEPA from EC/R, Inc. Unit Cost Estimates of Residential Wood Heating Appliances. January 2015

.

# 2

 74% of wood stove manufacturers (with an estimated 125 models representing catalytic , noncatalytic and hybrid designs);

 3 0% of pellet stove manufacturers (with an estimated 125 models);

 100% of single burn rate stove manufacturers (with an estimated 20 models) would face a doubling of the R&D engineering cost portion of total model development costs in 201 5 and 201 6 to represent intensification of R&D efforts for this previously unregulated appliance ty pe;

 100% of forced air furnace manufacturers (with an estimated 50 models) would face a dou bling of the R&D engineering cost portion of total model development costs in 201 5 and 201 6 to represent intensification of R&D efforts for this previously unregulated appliance type; and

 8 2 % of hydronic heater manufacturers (with an estimated 120 models).
As noted in the manufacturer cost impacts memo, all manufacturers, except for wood stove manufacturers who are subject to the current 1988 NSPS (and therefore already incur certification costs) , will face ongoing certification costs (every 5 years per model line) above baseline conditions. However, in the 201 5 to 2020 timeframe, we have incorporated these costs as part of the overall R&D expenditures.
After 2020 , our CE analysis tracks the ongoing annual certification and annual reporting and recordkeeping costs faced by manufacturers. We based reporting and recordkeeping (R&R) costs on the annual average costs derived from development of the Information Collection Request (ICR) supporting statements

. 4 , 5 

# These are annual estimates of the ongoing R&R burden to manufacturers associated with final rule compliance.

**B. Model Design Lifespan**  For proposal, we assumed a 20

-year model design lifespan. We made this assumption to best characterize the actual model design lifespan given that many models developed for the 1988 NSPS are still being sold (after 25 years), and many “new” models still have the same internal working parts with merely

exterior cosmetic changes. Respectful of comments on the proposed rule 6 

# , however, in which some industry

representatives commented that a shorter model lifespan is more accurate, we reduced our assumed model design lifespan to 10 years for this analysis. Therefore our CE analysis tracks shipments through year 2029 (assuming a 10

-year design life for a model meeting the Step 2 limit in year 2020)

.

4 

## See http://www.reginfo.gov for the ICR Supporting Statements for the New Residential Wood Heaters New Source Performance Standards (OMB Control Number 2060

-0161), Hydronic Heaters and Forced

-Air Furnaces New Source Performance Standards (OMB Control Number 20 60

-0693)(40 CFR Part 60, Subparts AAA and QQQQ). 5 

## See also Memorandum to Docket ID Number EPA

-HQ

-OAR

-2009

-0734 from EC/R, Inc. 40 CFR Part 60, Subparts AAA and QQQQ Estimated Three

-Year and Annual Respondent Burden Cost of Reporting and Recordkeeping Requirements (Years 2018 to 2020). January 2015. 6 

## Comments on the proposed NSPS are available electronically through http://www.regulations.gov by searching Docket IDs EPA

-HQ

-OAR

-2009

-0734. See also the Response to Comment (RTC) document in the docket for this rulemaking.

# 3

**II. Application of Emission Estimates to C**  **ost E**  **ffectiveness Analysis** 

**A. Baseline and NSPS emission estimates**  As noted in our emissions memo, we multiplied our tons/appliance PM emission estimate by the estimated number of shipments in each year to calculate total PM emissions from each appliance category per year. We made this calculation under baseline conditions (i.e., in the absence of this final NSPS) and under the final NSPS

. Furthermore, in order to not overstate emission reductions under the NSPS, baseline emissions were discounted by the estimated percentage of appliances already meeting the Step 2 PM limit (i.e., 26% of wood stoves, 7 0% of pellet stoves, and 1 8 % of hydronic heaters are estimated to already meet Step 2, as noted in S ection I. A). The emission estimates assume that the total number of shipped units meet the PM standard in the year the standard is implemented. Because our PM emission estimates assume that models do not come into compliance until the year they are required to , we do not claim PM emission reductions until each compliance year. This simplifying assumption means that we underestimated how soon PM emission reductions will happen under the final NSPS. In reality, some models will meet the NSPS Step 2 PM limit prior to the 2020 compliance year and will therefore be emitting less than baseline levels prior to that year.
Further, based on available data for wood stoves and pellet stoves, we as sumed that baseline PM emissions for both of these appliance ty pes are already

at the Step 1 PM level. We therefore claimed no PM emission reductions for wood stoves and pellet stoves until the 2020 Step 2 compliance year

. It should furthermore be noted that the assumption that at baseline all wood stoves already meet the Step 1 (Washington State) PM standard may slightly underestimate baseline emissions, as not 100% of wood stoves currently sold do meet the Washington state PM standard. Finally, in our CE analys e s PM emission reductions for forced

- air furnaces are not estimated to begin until the Step 1 PM limit is required in 2016, even though the work practice/operational standard required in 2015 will result in some (un

- estimated) PM emissions reduction. We made the s e simplifying assumptions in order to avoid any potential for overstating PM baseline emissions and PM emissions reduction under the final NSPS

.

**B. Appliance Emitting Lifespan**  As noted above, we used a 1 0

-year model design lifespan for estimating costs. We also assumed a 20

-year appliance emitting lifespan. This assumption was made to best characterize the actual use lifespan given that most stoves in consumer homes emit for at least 20 years and often much longer. Our CE analysis theref ore tracks emission reductions out through 2048 (assuming a 20

-year emitting life for an appliance shipped in year 2029)

. Our CE analysis incorporates “trailing emissions” as part of our 20 year lifespan assumptions. For example, our analysis assumes that a stove shipped in 201 5 will emit in homes for 20 years

– or until 203 4 (inclusive of both 201 5 and 20 34). We therefore drop emissions from this stove in our analysis in year 203 5 . Likewise, we drop emissions for a stove shipped in 201 6 in year 203 6 , and so on.

# 4

**III. Resulting C**  **ost Effectiveness Tables** 

Tables 1 through 8 show the results of our CE analyses based on PM2.5 

# reductions under the final NSPS for each appliance, for appliances grouped by subparts AAA (“room heaters”) and QQQQ (“central heaters”), and for Subparts AAA and QQQQ combined. Each table shown is based on 2013 dollars (2010 dollars were used at proposal) and a 7% interest rate applied to the amortized costs during the 6

-year R&D period. We also prepared estimates based on a 3% interest rate and these are presented in Tables 9 through 16

. In addition, we prepared both sets of tables based on volatile organic compound (VOC) emission reductions and based on carbon monoxide (CO) emission reductions , although these pollutants do not have emission limits under the final NSPS

. The VOC 7 

# and CO 8 

# cost effectiveness estimates are available in the docket. Finally, we prepared a sensitivity analysis in which we varied the GDP

-based forecasted growth rate, used as a proxy f or growth in shipments, from 2.0% to 2.1%, 2.5% and 3.0%, which caused emission estimates and resulting cost effectiveness to vary. The CE tables associated with this sensitivity

analysis are provided in Appendix A of this memo

.

7 

## See January 2015 cost effectiveness (CE) spreadsheets for VOC entitled Revised Final Wood Heater NSPS VOC CE 7% and Revised Final Wood Heater NSPS VOC CE 3 %, available in the public docket for this rulemaking

. 8 

## See January 2015 cost effectiveness (CE) spreadsheets for CO entitled Revised Fina l Wood Heater NSPS CO CE 7% and Revised Final Wood Heater NSPS CO CE 3 % available in the public docket for this rulemaking

# 5



# PM**2.5** 

# Cost Effe**ctiveness Tables 1 through 8**

These estimates are based on a 7% interest rate for amortized costs

and a 2% forecasted growth in shipments

# 6 Base lin e PM 2. 5 Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual cost (pert on) Basel ine PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 315 689 626 $3, 922 1, 315 689 626 2016 $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 341 702 638 $3, 845 2, 655 1, 391 1, 264 2017 $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 368 716 651 $3, 769 4, 023 2, 108 1, 916 2018 $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 435 771 664 $3, 695 5, 458 2, 879 2, 580 2019 $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 464 787 678 $3, 623 6, 922 3, 665 3, 257 2020 4 $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 493 410 1, 084 $2, 265 8, 416 4, 075 4, 341 2021 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 523 418 1, 105 $2, 221 9, 939 4, 493 5, 446 2022 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 554 426 1, 127 $2, 177 11, 493 4, 919 6, 573 2023 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 585 435 1, 150 $2, 135 13, 077 5, 354 7, 723 2024 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 616 444 1, 173 $2, 093 14, 694 5, 798 8, 896 2025 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 649 452 1, 196 $2, 052 16, 343 6, 250 10, 092 2026 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 682 462 1, 220 $2, 012 18, 024 6, 712 11, 312 2027 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 715 471 1, 245 $1, 972 19, 740 7, 183 12, 557 2028 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 750 480 1, 270 $1, 934 21, 489 7, 663 13, 827 2029 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 785 490 1, 295 $1, 896 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2030 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2031 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2032 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2033 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2034 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2035 21, 960 7, 464 14, 496 2036 20, 619 6, 761 13, 857 2037 19, 251 6, 045 13, 206 2038 17, 816 5, 274 12, 542 2039 16, 352 4, 487 11, 864 2040 14, 858 4, 078 10, 781 2041 13, 335 3, 660 9, 676 2042 11, 781 3, 233 8, 548 2043 10, 197 2, 798 7, 398 2044 8, 580 2, 355 6, 226 2045 6, 931 1, 902 5, 029 2046 5, 250 1, 441 3, 809 2047 3, 534 970 2, 564 2048 1, 785 490 1, 295

$36, 819, 222 212, 020 $174

6 In orde r to not ove rstate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, emissions are re duce d to di scount room hea ters al re ady me et in g the Ste p 2 l imit (i.e., 26%of wood stove s and 70% ofp elletstove s are e sti mated to al re ady me et the Ste p 2 l imit). CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20- ye ar emitti ng l ifespan (perton)

3The se he ate rsh ave in-home em itti ng l ifes pans of at l east 20 y ea rs; thus room he aters shippe d in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048. Cumul ati ve Emi ssi on Re ducti on ove r 20-yea r
em itti ng lifespa n Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul ati ve perye ar Annual Snapshots **Table 1. Cost Ef** **fec ti**  **veness (CE) ba** **sed on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2. 5** **e missions from Room He**  **ate rs (**  **Wood Stove s, Pe**  **llet Stove**  **s, and Single Burn Rate** **Stove s)** 

Nati onwide cu mulative
cost 5

5The n ati onwide cumul ative cost re presents the co st to manufacture rs resul ti ng f rom the R&D re -design to me etthe N SPS and the N SPS-caused ce rtificati on and
re porti ng & re co rdkeepingcosts to bring these stove s to marke t f rom 2015 through 2029. Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annua l Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are b ased on a 6- year amorti zati on period ofR&D costs at a 7% interest rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus an nual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdkeeping costs (ongoing through 2029, re pre se nting a 10 y ea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- ye ar mode l de sign lifespa n used in this anal ysis.
2Esti mate d annual e missions areb ased on a fore caste d re ven ue growth rate ( asa surrogate for shi pments) of2. 0%f rom 2015 th rough 2029, i n ke epin g w it h the av erage annual growth i n re al GDPp re dicte d by the USBure au ofEconomi c Anal ysis (M ay2014 Up date of Gl oba l Outlook projections; se e http://www.conferenceboa rd.org/data/gl obal outlook.cfm).

4Esti mate d em issions assume Ste p 1 standard be co mes effecti ve in2015 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2020. In order to not overe stimate e mission re ducti ons re sul ti ng from the rul e,for woodstove s an d pellet stove s, estimate s assume that most mode lsal re ad y meet the Ste p 1 l imit and that manufacture rsw ill ce rti fy and sell existing mode ls me et in g Ste p 1 standard f rom 2015 th rough 2019

. The re fore no em ission re ducti ons are e stimate d to re sult from woodstoves and pelletstoves until Ste p 2 i n 2020.

# 7 Base lin e PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nationwide
ave rage annual cost (per to n) Base line PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2.5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 381 381 0 N/A 381 381 0 2016 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 389 389 0 N/A 770 770 0 2017 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 397 397 0 N/A 1, 167 1, 167 0 2018 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 445 445 0 N/A 1, 612 1, 612 0 2019 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 454 454 0 N/A 2, 066 2, 066 0 2020 4 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 463 259 204 $5, 932 2, 529 2, 325 204 2021 $0 $1, 209, 971 472 264 208 $5, 816 3, 001 2, 589 412 2022 $0 $1, 209, 971 482 269 212 $5, 702 3, 483 2, 859 624 2023 $0 $1, 209, 971 491 275 216 $5, 590 3, 974 3, 134 841 2024 $0 $1, 209, 971 501 280 221 $5, 480 4, 475 3, 414 1, 061 2025 $0 $1, 209, 971 511 286 225 $5, 373 4, 987 3, 700 1, 287 2026 $0 $1, 209, 971 521 292 230 $5, 267 5, 508 3, 992 1, 516 2027 $0 $1, 209, 971 532 298 234 $5, 164 6, 040 4, 289 1, 751 2028 $0 $1, 209, 971 542 303 239 $5, 063 6, 582 4, 593 1, 990 2029 $0 $1, 209, 971 553 310 244 $4, 964 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2030 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2031 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2032 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2033 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2034 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2035 6, 754 4, 521 2, 233 2036 6, 365 4, 132 2, 233 2037 5, 969 3, 735 2, 233 2038 5, 524 3, 290 2, 233 2039 5, 070 2, 836 2, 233 2040 4, 607 2, 577 2, 029 2041 4, 134 2, 313 1, 821 2042 3, 653 2, 043 1, 609 2043 3, 161 1, 769 1, 393 2044 2, 660 1, 488 1, 172 2045 2, 149 1, 202 947 2046 1, 628 911 717 2047 1, 096 613 483 2048 553 310 244

$18, 149, 566 34, 983 $519

6 In orde r ton ot ove rs tate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, emissions are re duce d to di scount wood stoves already me et in g the Ste p 2l im it (i.e., 26%of wood stoves already me etthe Ste p 2l im it). **Tab le**  **2. Cost Ef** **fectiveness (CE** **) base**  **d on annual and cumul**  **ative PM 2.5** **e missions**  **fr om** **W ood Stove**  **s**

Ye ar 3 Nati onwi de

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Ave rage Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re duction, c umulati ve per yea r CE base d on total cost & cumul ative
em is sion re duction
over 20-yea r emitting l ifespa n (per ton)

1Es ti mate d nationwide an nual cos ts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6-year amorti zation period of R&D cos ts at a 7%i nterest rate (duri ng 2015- 2020 )

. Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10-yea r mode l design lifespan used in thi s anal ysi s.

2Ex ce pt for an adj ustment in ye ar 2018 bas ed on an in dustry proje ct ion (NE RA) , est im ate d annual e mi ssions are base d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pments) of 2. 0%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, i n keeping wit h the average annual growth in re al GDP p re di ct ed by the USBure au o f Economi c A nal ysis (M ay 2014 Up date of Gl obal Outlook projecti ons; se e http://www.conference-board.org/data/global outlook.cfm ).

3The se heaters have in-home e mi tting li fespans of at l ea st 20 years; thus wood stoves shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048.
4Es ti mate d em issions as sume Step 1standard becomes effecti ve in 2015 a nd Ste p 2standard i n 2020. For woodstoves, estimates assume t hat most mode ls already me et the Ste p 1 l imitan d that manuf acture rswi ll ce rti fy and se ll existing models meeting Step 1 s tan dard during 2015 t hrough 2019. The re fore no em is sion re ductions are estimated unti l Step 2i n 2020.

5The n ati onwi de cu mu lati ve co st re presents the cost to manuf acture rsre sulting from the R&D re -de si gn to meet the N SPS assumi ng a 10- year mode l life. Cumulati ve Emi ssion Re duction over 20-yea r emitting li fespa n Nati onwi de cumulati ve
co st 5

# 8 Base line PM2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NSPS PM2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Re duction (tons) 6 CE b ase d on

nati onwi de
ave rage annual cost (per ton) Base line PM2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM2.5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) 6
2015 4 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 56 56 0 N/A 56 56 0 2016 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 57 57 0 N/A 114 114 0 2017 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 59 59 0 N/A 172 172 0 2018 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 60 60 0 N/A 232 232 0 2019 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 61 61 0 N/A 293 293 0 2020 4 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 62 28 35 $24, 853 355 320 35 2021 $412, 963 $857, 473 63 28 35 $24, 366 418 348 70 2022 $412, 963 $857, 473 65 29 36 $23, 888 483 377 106 2023 $412, 963 $857, 473 66 29 37 $23, 419 549 406 142 2024 $412, 963 $857, 473 67 30 37 $22, 960 616 436 180 2025 $412, 963 $857, 473 69 30 38 $22, 510 684 467 218 2026 $412, 963 $857, 473 70 31 39 $22, 069 754 498 256 2027 $412, 963 $857, 473 71 32 40 $21, 636 826 530 296 2028 $412, 963 $857, 473 73 32 40 $21, 212 899 562 337 2029 $412, 963 $857, 473 74 33 41 $20, 796 973 595 378 2030 973 595 378 2031 973 595 378 2032 973 595 378 2033 973 595 378 2034 973 595 378 2035 916 539 378 2036 859 481 378 2037 801 423 378 2038 741 363 378 2039 680 302 378 2040 618 275 343 2041 555 246 308 2042 490 218 272 2043 424 188 236 2044 357 159 198 2045 288 128 160 2046 218 97 121 2047 147 65 82 2048 74 33 41

$12, 862, 099 5, 917 $2, 174

6 In orde r to not ove rstate e mi ssion reducti ons cause d by the NSPS, emissions are re duced t o di scount pe lletstoves al re ady meet in g the Ste p 2 l imit (i.e., 70%of pellet stoves already me etthe Ste p 2 l imit). **Table 3.** **C ost Eff** **ec tiveness (CE) based on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2.5 e**  **mi ssions from Pellet**  **Stove s** 

1Esti mate d nationwi de annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are b as ed on a 6- yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R& D cos ts at a 7%i nterest rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , pl us annual
ce rti ficati on and re porting & re cordke eping costs (ongoing through 2029, re presenting a 10 yea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10-yea r mode l design lifespa n used in thi s anal ysi s. 2Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are base d on a fore caste d re venue gro wth rate ( as a s urrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 0%f rom 2015 th rough 2029, i n ke eping with the average annual g rowth in re al GDPpre di cte d by the USBure au o f Economic Analysis (M ay 2014 Up date of Gl obal Outl ook proj ecti ons; see http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/gl obal outl ook.cfm).

3The se hea ters have in -home em itting lifespa ns of at l ea st 20 yea rs; thus pe lletstoves shi pped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Na tionwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwi de

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul ati ve per ye ar

4Esti mate d e missions assume Step 1standard be come s effective in 2015 an d Ste p 2 standard in 2020. F or pe lletstoves, esti mate s assume that most mode lsal re ady me et the Ste p 1 l imit an d that manufacture rs w ill ce rti fy and se ll exist in g mode ls meet in g Ste p 1standard during 2015 th rough 2019. Th erefore no em is si on re ductions are esti mate d unti l Step 2i n 2020.
5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre sents the cost to manufacture rsre sul ti ng from the R&D re -design to me etthe N SPS and the N SPS-caused ce rti fication and re porting & re cordk eeping costs to bring these stoves to marke t from 2015 th rough 2029. CE base d on total cost & cu mul ati ve
em is si on re duction
over 20-year
em itting lifespa n (per ton)

Na tionwide cumulative
cost 5 Cumulative Em ission Re duction over 20-ye ar sto ve

lifespa n

# 9 Base lin e PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Em is sion

Re ducti on (tons) CE base d on

nationwide
ave rage annual cost (per ton) Base lin e PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssion

Reducti on (tons) 2015 4 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 877 251 626 $619 877 251 626 2016 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 895 256 638 $606 1, 771 507 1, 264 2017 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 912 261 651 $595 2, 684 768 1, 916 2018 $680, 112 $387, 171 931 266 664 $583 3, 614 1, 035 2, 580 2019 $680, 112 $387, 171 949 272 678 $571 4, 564 1, 306 3, 257 2020 4 $680, 112 $387, 171 968 123 845 $458 5, 532 1, 430 4, 102 2021 $66, 074 $387, 171 988 126 862 $449 6, 520 1, 555 4, 964 2022 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 007 128 879 $440 7, 527 1, 683 5, 843 2023 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 027 131 897 $432 8, 554 1, 814 6, 740 2024 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 048 133 915 $423 9, 602 1, 948 7, 655 2025 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 069 136 933 $415 10, 671 2, 084 8, 588 2026 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 090 139 952 $407 11, 762 2, 222 9, 540 2027 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 112 142 971 $399 12, 874 2, 364 10, 510 2028 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 134 144 990 $391 14, 009 2, 508 11, 500 2029 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 157 147 1, 010 $383 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2030 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2031 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2032 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2033 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2034 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2035 14, 289 2, 404 11, 884 2036 13, 394 2, 148 11, 246 2037 12, 482 1, 887 10, 595 2038 11, 551 1, 621 9, 931 2039 10, 602 1, 349 9, 253 2040 9, 634 1, 226 8, 408 2041 8, 646 1, 100 7, 546 2042 7, 639 972 6, 667 2043 6, 611 841 5, 770 2044 5, 563 708 4, 855 2045 4, 494 572 3, 922 2046 3, 404 433 2, 971 2047 2, 292 292 2, 000 2048 1, 157 147 1, 010

$5, 807, 558 171, 119 $34 **Tabl e**  **4. Cost Ef fectiveness**  **(CE) base**  **d on annual and cumulati**  **ve PM**  **2. 5** **e missions from Single** **Burn Rate Stove**  **s**

1Esti mated nationwide annual costs are i n 2013 $ an d are b ased on a 6-yea r amorti zation peri od of R&D costs at a 7% i nte re st rate (during 2015- 2020) , pl us annual ce rti ficati on
an d re porting & re cordke eping costs (o ngoi ng through 2029, re presenting a 10 y ear mode l life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10- yea r model d esign lifespan used in thi s anal ysis.
2Esti mated annual emi ssions are b ase d on a f ore caste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate f or shi pments) of2. 0%f rom 2015 th rough 2029, i n kee pingwith the ave rage
an nual growth in re al GDPp re di cte d by the USBure au ofEconomi c A na lysis (M ay2014 Up date o f Gl obal Outlook proje cti ons; see http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/global outlook.cfm).

3Th ese he aters have i n-home em itting lifespans of at l ea st 20 y ea rs; thus singl e burn rate stove s shi ppe d i n 2029 w ill be e mitting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annua l Snapshots Em is sion Re duction, cu mul ati ve per year

4Esti mated em issions assume Ste p 1 standard be comes effective in 2015 an d Step 2standard i n 2020.
5Th e nationwi de cu mulative cost re pre sents the cost to manufacturers re sul ti ng from the R&D re- de sign to mee t the NSPS and the N SPS-caused ce rti ficati on and re porti ng &
re cordkee pingcosts to bri ng these stoves to marke t f rom 2015 through 2029

. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- yea r emi tti ng lifespan (per ton)

Nationwide cumul at ive cost 5 Cumulative Emi ssion Reducti on ove r 20- ye ar
em itti ng lifespa n

# 10 Base line PM2. 5 Em issions 2 (tons) NSPS PM2. 5

Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
av erage
an nual cost (p ert on) Base line PM2. 5

Em issions (tons) NSPS PM2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $45, 761, 061 $16, 620, 786 10, 299 7, 008 3, 291 $5, 051 10, 299 7, 008 3, 291 2016 4 $45, 761, 061 $16, 620, 786 10, 505 5, 878 4, 627 $3, 592 20, 804 12, 887 7, 918 2017 4 $37, 432, 168 $16, 620, 786 10, 715 2, 108 8, 607 $1, 931 31, 520 14, 995 16, 525 2018 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 10, 930 2, 150 8, 779 $1, 893 42, 449 17, 145 25, 304 2019 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 148 2, 193 8, 955 $1, 856 53, 598 19, 339 34, 259 2020 4 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 371 355 11, 016 $1, 509 64, 969 19, 694 45, 275 2021 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 11, 599 362 11, 236 $1, 479 76, 567 20, 056 56, 511 2022 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 11, 831 370 11, 461 $1, 450 88, 398 20, 426 67, 972 2023 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 067 377 11, 690 $1, 422 100, 465 20, 803 79, 662 2024 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 309 385 11, 924 $1, 394 112, 774 21, 188 91, 586 2025 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 555 392 12, 162 $1, 367 125, 329 21, 580 103, 748 2026 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 806 400 12, 406 $1, 340 138, 134 21, 980 116, 154 2027 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 062 408 12, 654 $1, 314 151, 196 22, 389 128, 808 2028 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 323 416 12, 907 $1, 288 164, 519 22, 805 141, 714 2029 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 590 425 13, 165 $1, 263 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2030 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2031 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2032 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2033 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2034 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2035 167, 810 16, 221 151, 589 2036 157, 305 10, 343 146, 962 2037 146, 589 8, 235 138, 355 2038 135, 660 6, 084 129, 575 2039 124, 511 3, 891 120, 620 2040 113, 140 3, 536 109, 605 2041 101, 542 3, 173 98, 368 2042 89, 711 2, 803 86, 908 2043 77, 644 2, 426 75, 217 2044 65, 335 2, 042 63, 294 2045 52, 781 1, 649 51, 131 2046 39, 975 1, 249 38, 726 2047 3 26, 913 841 26, 072 2048 3 13, 590 425 13, 165

$249, 311, 792 2, 178, 862 $114 **Tabl e**  **5. C ost**  **Ef fec** **ti veness**  **(CE )**  **based on annual**  **an d cumul**  **ati ve PM**  **2.5 e**  **missions from Central He**  **ate rs**  **(Fo rce**  **d Ai r F**  **urnace s and Hydroni**  **c He ati**  **ng Systems)**

5Th e nati onwide cu mulative cost repre se nts the co st to manufacturers re sul ti ng f ro m the R&D re -design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and
re porting & re co rdkee pi ng costs to bri ng the se heate rs to marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. 1Esti mated nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ and are b as ed o n a 6- ye ar amorti zati on peri od ofR&D costs at a 7% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , pl us annual
ce rti fication and reporting & re co rdkee pi ng costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pres en ti ng a 10 y ear mode l life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- ye ar mode l de si gn lifes pa n used inthi s anal ysis.
2Esti mated annual e mi ssi ons are based on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pments) of2. 0%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, i n kee pi ng wi th the av erage
an nual growth in re al GDPp re dicted by the US Bure au o f Economic Analysis (M ay2014 Up date of Gl obal Outl ook proje ct io ns; see http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/global outlook.cfm).

3Th ese heate rs have i n-home em itti ng l ifes pa ns of at le ast 20 ye ars; thus model s shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048.
4Esti mated emi ssions as sume Ste p 1 standard be comes effective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard in 2020 for al l ap pl ia nces, except forced -a ir f urnaces have work practi ce /operati onal standards in 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssi on l imits for smal l furnacesi n 2016, Step 1 e mission lim it s for l arge f urnaces i n 2017 and Ste p 2 e mi ssi on l imits for al l fu rnace s in 2020. CE based on total cost & cumulative
em is sion re ducti on
ove r 20- year emitting lifespa n (perton) Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Em is sion Re ducti on, cumul ative per ye ar

6 In orde r to not ove rstate e mi ssi on reducti ons caused by the NSPS, emissions are re duced to di scount central he ate rsal re ady me eting the Step 2l imit( i. e., 18%of hydroni c he ate rs are e sti mated to al re ady me et the Step 2 l imit). Nati onwide cu mul ati ve
co st5 Cumulati ve Emi ssi on Reduction over 20-yea r
em itti ng l ifes pa n

# 11 Basel ine PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Reduction (tons) CE base d on

nati onwide average
an nual cos t (p er ton) Base line PM 2.5

Emi ssi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issions (tons) Emissi on

Re ducti on (tons) 2015 4 $20, 905, 663 $6, 299, 286 6, 643 6, 643 0 N/A 6, 643 6, 643 0 2016 4 $20, 905, 663 $6, 299, 286 6, 776 5, 505 1, 270 $4, 958 13, 419 12, 148 1, 270 2017 4 $12, 576, 770 $6, 299, 286 6, 911 1, 728 5, 183 $1, 215 20, 330 13, 876 6, 454 2018 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 049 1, 762 5, 287 $1, 191 27, 379 15, 638 11, 741 2019 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 190 1, 798 5, 393 $1, 168 34, 570 17, 436 17, 134 2020 4 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 334 229 7, 105 $887 41, 904 17, 665 24, 239 2021 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 7, 481 234 7, 247 $869 49, 385 17, 899 31, 486 2022 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 7, 631 238 7, 392 $852 57, 015 18, 137 38, 878 2023 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 7, 783 243 7, 540 $835 64, 798 18, 381 46, 418 2024 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 7, 939 248 7, 691 $819 72, 737 18, 629 54, 109 2025 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 098 253 7, 845 $803 80, 835 18, 882 61, 953 2026 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 260 258 8, 001 $787 89, 094 19, 140 69, 955 2027 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 425 263 8, 161 $772 97, 519 19, 403 78, 116 2028 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 593 269 8, 325 $757 106, 112 19, 672 86, 441 2029 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 765 274 8, 491 $742 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2030 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2031 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2032 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2033 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2034 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2035 108, 235 13, 303 94, 932 2036 101, 459 7, 797 93, 662 2037 94, 548 6, 070 88, 478 2038 87, 498 4, 307 83, 191 2039 80, 308 2, 510 77, 798 2040 72, 974 2, 280 70, 693 2041 65, 493 2, 047 63, 446 2042 57, 862 1, 808 56, 054 2043 50, 079 1, 565 48, 514 2044 42, 140 1, 317 40, 823 2045 34, 043 1, 064 32, 979 2046 25, 783 806 24, 977 2047 17, 358 542 16, 816 2048 8, 765 274 8, 491

$94, 489, 287 1, 370, 447 $69

4Estimate d e mi ssi ons assume Step 1 standard be come s e ffecti ve i n 2015 and Step 2 s tandard in 2020 for al l ap pl iances, ex ce pt fo rce d-a ir f urnace s have work practi ce /operati onal s tandards i n 2015, Ste p 1e mi ssi on l im its for smal l furnace s i n 2016, Ste p 1 e mi ssion limits for l arge f urnace s i n 2017 a nd Ste p 2e mi ssi on l imits fo r al l furna ce s in 2020. 5The nati onwide cumul ati ve cos t re presents the cos t to manufactu re rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-caused certi fication and
re porting & re co rd keeping costs to brin g the se h eate rst o marke t from 2014 t hrough 2029. CE b ase d on total
co st & cumulati ve
em ission re ducti on
ove r 20-year emitti ng l ifespan (per ton)

Nati onwide cu mul ative
cost 5 Cumulati ve Emi ssion Reduction over 20- ye ar emitti ng l ifespan **Tabl e**  **6. Cost Effective**  **ne ss**  **(CE) base d on annual**  **an d cumul**  **ative PM 2.5** **e mi**  **ssions from Forced Air Furnace**  **s**

1Estimate d nati onwide an nual cos ts are i n 2013 $ a nd are b as ed on a 6-yea r amorti zation peri od of R&D costs at a 7% in terest rate (during 2015- 2020) , pl us annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordkeeping costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nting a 10 ye ar mode l life). Ye ars 2030 throu gh 2048 are past the 10-yea r model d esign lifespa n use d i n this analysi s. 2Estimate d annual e missions are b as ed on a fore caste d re venue growth rate (as a surrogate for shipments) of2. 0%f rom 2015 th rough 2029, i n keepingw it h the average
an nual growth in re al G DP predi cte d by the US Bure au ofEconomic Analysi s (M ay2014 Up date of G lo ba l Outlook proje ct ions; se e http://www.confe re nce
board.org/data/gl obal outl ook.cfm ).

3The se he ate rs have i n-home emitti ng l ifes pans of at l ea st 20 yea rs; thus fo rce d-a ir f urnace s shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emissi on Reducti on, cumul ative pe r y ea r

# 12 Bas eline PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Reducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwi de
av erage
an nual cost (p erton) Base line PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2.5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Reduction (tons) 6
2015 4 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 656 366 3, 291 $3, 137 3, 656 366 3, 291 2016 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 730 373 3, 357 $3, 075 7, 386 739 6, 647 2017 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 804 380 3, 424 $3, 015 11, 190 1, 119 10, 071 2018 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 880 388 3, 492 $2, 956 15, 070 1, 507 13, 563 2019 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 958 396 3, 562 $2, 898 19, 028 1, 903 17, 125 2020 4 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 037 126 3, 911 $2, 639 23, 065 2, 029 21, 036 2021 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 118 129 3, 989 $2, 587 27, 183 2, 158 25, 025 2022 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 200 131 4, 069 $2, 537 31, 383 2, 289 29, 094 2023 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 284 134 4, 150 $2, 487 35, 667 2, 423 33, 244 2024 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 370 137 4, 233 $2, 438 40, 037 2, 559 37, 477 2025 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 457 139 4, 318 $2, 390 44, 494 2, 699 41, 795 2026 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 546 142 4, 404 $2, 344 49, 040 2, 841 46, 199 2027 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 637 145 4, 492 $2, 298 53, 677 2, 986 50, 692 2028 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 730 148 4, 582 $2, 253 58, 407 3, 133 55, 274 2029 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 825 151 4, 674 $2, 208 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2030 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2031 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2032 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2033 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2034 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2035 59, 575 2, 919 56, 657 2036 55, 846 2, 546 53, 300 2037 52, 042 2, 165 49, 876 2038 48, 161 1, 777 46, 384 2039 44, 204 1, 381 42, 822 2040 40, 167 1, 255 38, 911 2041 36, 049 1, 127 34, 922 2042 31, 849 995 30, 854 2043 27, 565 861 26, 703 2044 23, 195 725 22, 470 2045 18, 738 586 18, 152 2046 14, 192 443 13, 748 2047 3 9, 554 299 9, 256 2048 3 4, 825 151 4, 674

$154, 822, 505 808, 415 $192

6 In order to not ove rs tate e mi ssion re ducti ons caused by the NSPS, emissions are re duced to di scount hydroni c he ate rsa lrea dy meeting the Ste p 2l im it( i.e., 18%o f hydronic heaters are esti mate d to already meet the Ste p 2l im it). **Tabl e**  **7. C**  **ost Ef fective**  **ness (CE) ba** **se d on annual**  **and cumul ative PM**  **2. 5** **e missions**  **fr om Hydroni**  **c He ating Syste**  **ms**

1Es ti mate d nati onwi de a nnual costs are i n 2013 $ an d are b ase d on a 6-yea r amorti zation period of R&D costs at a 7%i nterest rate ( durin g 2015- 2020) , pl us annual
ce rtification and re porting & re cordkee pi ng costs (ongoing through 2029, re presenting a 10 y ea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- ye ar mode l desig n lifespa n used i n thi s anal ysis.

2Es ti mate d annual emi ssions are based on a forecasted re ve nue growth rate ( asas urrogate for shipme nts) of 2 .0% from 2015 th ro ugh 2029, i n ke epingw ith the ave rage annual growth in re al GDPpre di ct ed by the USB ureau ofEconomi c A nalysis (M ay 2014 Up date ofGl obal O utl ook projecti ons; see http://www.confe re nce
board.org/data/gl obaloutl ook.cfm).

3Th ese heaters have in-home emitti ng lifes pans ofat l east 20 ye ars; thus hydroni c he ate rss hi ppe d i n 2029 w ill be e mi tti ng through 2048. Ye ar Nationwide Annual Cost 1 Nati onwi de

Average Annual Cost Annual S napshots Emi ssion Re duction, cumul ative per year

4Es ti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step 2 s tandard i n 2020.

5Th e nationwi de cu mu lati ve cost re pres ents the cost to manufacture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to me etth e NSPS and the NSPS-caused ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke eping costs to brin g these heate rst o marke t from 2014 through 2029. CE base d on total
co st & cumul ative
em ission re ducti on over 20- ye ar emitting li fespan (p er to n)

Nationwide cumulati ve cost5 Cumul ative Emi ssi on Re ducti on over 20-yea r
em itti ng l ifespa n

# 13 Base line PM2. 5 Em issions 2 (tons) NSPS PM2. 5

Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
av erage
an nual cost (p ert on) Base line PM2. 5

Em issions (tons) NSPS PM2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $51, 327, 699 $19, 075, 401 11, 614 7, 697 3, 917 $4, 870 11, 614 7, 697 3, 917 2016 4 $51, 327, 699 $19, 075, 401 11, 846 6, 581 5, 265 $3, 623 23, 460 14, 278 9, 182 2017 4 $42, 998, 805 $19, 075, 401 12, 083 2, 825 9, 258 $2, 060 35, 543 17, 102 18, 440 2018 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 12, 365 2, 922 9, 443 $2, 020 47, 908 20, 024 27, 884 2019 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 12, 612 2, 980 9, 632 $1, 980 60, 520 23, 004 37, 516 2020 4 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 12, 865 765 12, 099 $1, 577 73, 385 23, 769 49, 616 2021 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 13, 122 780 12, 341 $1, 546 86, 507 24, 550 61, 957 2022 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 13, 384 796 12, 588 $1, 515 99, 891 25, 346 74, 545 2023 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 13, 652 812 12, 840 $1, 486 113, 543 26, 158 87, 385 2024 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 13, 925 828 13, 097 $1, 456 127, 468 26, 986 100, 482 2025 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 203 845 13, 359 $1, 428 141, 671 27, 831 113, 841 2026 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 488 862 13, 626 $1, 400 156, 159 28, 692 127, 466 2027 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 777 879 13, 898 $1, 372 170, 936 29, 571 141, 365 2028 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 073 897 14, 176 $1, 346 186, 009 30, 468 155, 541 2029 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 374 914 14, 460 $1, 319 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2030 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2031 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2032 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2033 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2034 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2035 189, 769 23, 685 166, 084 2036 177, 923 17, 104 160, 819 2037 165, 840 14, 280 151, 561 2038 153, 475 11, 358 142, 117 2039 140, 863 8, 378 132, 485 2040 127, 998 7, 613 120, 385 2041 114, 877 6, 833 108, 044 2042 101, 492 6, 037 95, 456 2043 87, 840 5, 225 82, 616 2044 73, 915 4, 396 69, 519 2045 59, 712 3, 552 56, 160 2046 45, 224 2, 690 42, 535 20473 30, 447 1, 811 28, 636 2048 3 15, 374 914 14, 460

$286, 131, 014 2, 390, 882 $120 Nati onwide Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots

1Esti mated nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ and are b as ed o n a 6- ye ar amorti zati on peri od ofR&D costs at a 7% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , pl us annual
ce rti fication and reporting & re co rdkee pi ng costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pres en ti ng a 10 y ear mode l life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- ye ar mode l de si gn lifes pa n used inthi s anal ysis.
2Esti mated annual e mi ssi ons are based on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pments) of2. 0%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, i n kee pi ng wi th the av erage
an nual growth in re al GDPp re dicted by the US Bure au o f Economic Analysis (M ay2014 Up date of Gl obal Outl ook proje ct io ns; see http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/global outlook.cfm).

3Th ese heate rs have i n-home em itti ng l ifes pa ns of at le ast 20 ye ars; thus model s shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048.
4Esti mated emi ssions as sume Ste p 1 standard be comes effective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard in 2020 for al l ap pl ia nces, except forced -a ir f urnaces have work practi ce /operati onal standards in 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssi on l imits for smal l furnacesi n 2016, Step 1 e mission lim it s for l arge f urnaces i n 2017 and Ste p 2 e mi ssi on l imits for al l fu rnace s in 2020.

6 In orde r to not ove rstate e mi ssi on reducti ons caused by the NSPS, emissions are re duced to di scount room heaters and ce ntral heaters al re ad y meet ingthe Ste p 2 l im it (i.e., 26%o f wood stoves, 70%ofpe llet stove s and 18%o f hydroniche ate rsare e sti mated to al re ady me et the Step 2 l im it ). **Tabl e**  **8. C** **ost Ef** **fec ti**  **veness (CE** **) base**  **d on annual**  **an d cumul**  **ati ve PM**  **2. 5** **e missions from Central**  **He ate**  **rs (Fo**  **rce d Ai**  **r F urnace**  **s and Hydroni c He**  **ati ng Systems) and Room**  **He ate**  **rs (Wood Stove**  **s, Pellet Stove s, and Si**  **ngle Burn Rate S** **toves)**
CE based on total cost & cumulative
em is sion re ducti on
ove r 20- year emitting lifespa n (perton) Em is sion Re ducti on, cumul ative per ye ar

Nati onwide cu mul ati ve
co st5 Cumulati ve Emi ssi on Reduction over 20-yea r
em itti ng l ifes pa n

5Th e nati onwide cu mulative cost repre se nts the co st to manufacturers re sul ti ng f ro m the R&D re -design to meet the NSPS and the NSPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and
re porting & re co rdkee pi ng costs to bri ng the se heate rs to marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1

# 14 This page left intentionally blank

# 15



# PM**2.5** 

# Cost Effectiveness Tables **9 through**  **16**

These estimates are based on a 3 % interest rate for amortized costs

and a 2% forecasted growth in shipments

# 16 Baseli ne P M 2. 5 

### Emi ssi ons 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions 2 

### (tons) Emi ssion

Reduction (tons) 6 

### CEb ased on

nati onwide average annual co st (perto n) Baseli ne P M 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6


### 2015 4 

### $4, 930, 601 $2, 209, 574 1, 315 689 626 $3, 530 1, 315 689 626 2016 $4, 930, 601 $2, 209, 574 1, 341 702 638 $3, 461 2, 655 1, 391 1, 264 2017 $4, 930, 601 $2, 209, 574 1, 368 716 651 $3, 393 4, 023 2, 108 1, 916 2018 $4, 680, 157 $2, 209, 574 1, 435 771 664 $3, 327 5, 458 2, 879 2, 580 2019 $4, 680, 157 $2, 209, 574 1, 464 787 678 $3, 261 6, 922 3, 665 3, 257 2020 4 

### $4, 680, 157 $2, 209, 574 1, 493 410 1, 084 $2, 039 8, 416 4, 075 4, 341 2021 $479, 037 $2, 209, 574 1, 523 418 1, 105 $1, 999 9, 939 4, 493 5, 446 2022 $479, 037 $2, 209, 574 1, 554 426 1, 127 $1, 960 11, 493 4, 919 6, 573 2023 $479, 037 $2, 209, 574 1, 585 435 1, 150 $1, 922 13, 077 5, 354 7, 723 2024 $479, 037 $2, 209, 574 1, 616 444 1, 173 $1, 884 14, 694 5, 798 8, 896 2025 $479, 037 $2, 209, 574 1, 649 452 1, 196 $1, 847 16, 343 6, 250 10, 092 2026 $479, 037 $2, 209, 574 1, 682 462 1, 220 $1, 811 18, 024 6, 712 11, 312 2027 $479, 037 $2, 209, 574 1, 715 471 1, 245 $1, 775 19, 740 7, 183 12, 557 2028 $479, 037 $2, 209, 574 1, 750 480 1, 270 $1, 740 21, 489 7, 663 13, 827 2029 $479, 037 $2, 209, 574 1, 785 490 1, 295 $1, 706 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2030 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2031 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2032 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2033 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2034 23, 274 8, 153 15, 122 2035 21, 960 7, 464 14, 496 2036 20, 619 6, 761 13, 857 2037 19, 251 6, 045 13, 206 2038 17, 816 5, 274 12, 542 2039 16, 352 4, 487 11, 864 2040 14, 858 4, 078 10, 781 2041 13, 335 3, 660 9, 676 2042 11, 781 3, 233 8, 548 2043 10, 197 2, 798 7, 398 2044 8, 580 2, 355 6, 226 2045 6, 931 1, 902 5, 029 2046 5, 250 1, 441 3, 809 2047 3, 534 970 2, 564 2048 1, 785 490 1, 295

$33, 143, 609 212, 020 $156

6 

### In order to not ove rstate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em issions are re duce d to di scount room he ate rs al re ady mee ting the Step 2 l im it( i.e., 26%o f wood stove s and 70%ofpe lletstoves are e stimate d to al re ady me et the Ste p 2 l imit ). CE b ased on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- ye ar emitti ng l ifespan (perto n)

3

### The se heate rsh ave i n- home em itting lifesp ans ofat l ea st 20 y ears; thus room heate rss hipped in 2029 w ill be em itting through 2048. Cumulative Emi ssion Reduction over 20- ye ar
em itting lifespa n Emi ssi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve pe r y ea r Annual Snapshots **Tab le**  **9. C** **ost Eff ec** **tiveness (C**  **E) base**  **d on annual and cumulative PM 2.**  **5**

### e **missions from R oom He**  **ate rs (W**  **ood Stoves, Pel let** **Stove s, and Single**  **Bu rn** **Rate Stove**  **s)**

Na ti onwi de cumul ati ve cost 5

5

### The nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pres ents the cost to manufactu re rs re sulting from the R&D re -desig n to me et the NSPS and the N SPS-caused ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re cordke eping costs to bri ng the se stove s to mark et from 2015 t hrough 2029. Ye ar 3 

### Na tionwi de

Annual Cost 1 

### Na tionwide

Average Annual C ost

1

### Esti mate d nati onwi de annual costs are i n 2013 $ an d are b ase d on a 6-ye ar amorti zati on pe ri od ofR&D co sts at a 3% interest rate ( durin g 2015- 2020) , pl us annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke ep ingco sts (ongoi ng through 2029, re pres ent in g a 10 yea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10-yea r model de sign lifesp an use d i n thi s anal ysis.
2

### Esti mate d annual e missions are b ase d on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pments) of 2. 0%f ro m 2015 th ro ugh 2029, i n ke eping wi th the average annual growth i n re al GDPpre dicted by the USBure au of Economi c A nal ysis (May 2014 Up date ofGl obal Outl ook proje cti ons; see http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/gl obal outlook.cfm ).

4

### Esti mate d e missions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s effecti ve in 2015 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2020. I n orde r to not overesti mate e missi on re ducti ons re sulting from the ru le, for

w oodstoves and pelletstove s, esti mate s assume that most model s al re ady me et the Ste p 1 l imitand that manufacturers will ce rti fy and se ll existing model s me eting Step 1 standard f ro m 2015 t hrough 2019. Th erefore no emissi on re ducti ons are e stimated to re sul t f ro m woodstove s and pe lletstoves until Ste p 2 i n 2020.

# 17 Base line PM 2. 5 Em issions 2 (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Emissi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE based on

nati onwide
average
an nual co st (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Em issions (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $2, 661, 608 $1, 064, 643 381 381 0 N/A 381 381 0 2016 $2, 661, 608 $1, 064, 643 389 389 0 N/A 770 770 0 2017 $2, 661, 608 $1, 064, 643 397 397 0 N/A 1, 167 1, 167 0 2018 $2, 661, 608 $1, 064, 643 445 445 0 N/A 1, 612 1, 612 0 2019 $2, 661, 608 $1, 064, 643 454 454 0 N/A 2, 066 2, 066 0 2020 4 $2, 661, 608 $1, 064, 643 463 259 204 $5, 219 2, 529 2, 325 204 2021 $0 $1, 064, 643 472 264 208 $5, 117 3, 001 2, 589 412 2022 $0 $1, 064, 643 482 269 212 $5, 017 3, 483 2, 859 624 2023 $0 $1, 064, 643 491 275 216 $4, 918 3, 974 3, 134 841 2024 $0 $1, 064, 643 501 280 221 $4, 822 4, 475 3, 414 1, 061 2025 $0 $1, 064, 643 511 286 225 $4, 727 4, 987 3, 700 1, 287 2026 $0 $1, 064, 643 521 292 230 $4, 635 5, 508 3, 992 1, 516 2027 $0 $1, 064, 643 532 298 234 $4, 544 6, 040 4, 289 1, 751 2028 $0 $1, 064, 643 542 303 239 $4, 455 6, 582 4, 593 1, 990 2029 $0 $1, 064, 643 553 310 244 $4, 367 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2030 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2031 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2032 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2033 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2034 7, 136 4, 902 2, 233 2035 6, 754 4, 521 2, 233 2036 6, 365 4, 132 2, 233 2037 5, 969 3, 735 2, 233 2038 5, 524 3, 290 2, 233 2039 5, 070 2, 836 2, 233 2040 4, 607 2, 577 2, 029 2041 4, 134 2, 313 1, 821 2042 3, 653 2, 043 1, 609 2043 3, 161 1, 769 1, 393 2044 2, 660 1, 488 1, 172 2045 2, 149 1, 202 947 2046 1, 628 911 717 2047 1, 096 613 483 2048 553 310 244

$15, 969, 645 34, 983 $456

6 In orde r to not ove rs tate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em is si ons are re duced to di scount wood stoves al re ady me et ing the Ste p 2 l im it( i.e., 26%of wood stoves al re ady me etthe Ste p 2l im it ). **Tabl e**  **10. C** **ost Eff ec** **ti ve**  **ne ss (CE) base**  **d on annual and cumul**  **ati ve** **PM 2.**  **5 e**  **mi ssions from Wood Stove**  **s**

Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cu mul ati ve per y ea r CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em is sion re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng lifespa n (per ton)

1Es ti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period of R&D cos ts at a 3% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020 )

. Ye ars2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- yea r model design lifespa n use d i n this an al ysis.

2Ex ce pt for an adj ustment in yea r 2018 b as ed on an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA), estimated annual e mi ssions are b ase d on a fore cas te d re ve nue growth rate ( as a s urrogate for shi pments) of 2. 0%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029,i n keeping with the av erage an nua l growth in re al GDPp re di cte d by the USBu re au of Economi c A nal ysis (May 2014 Up date of Gl obal Outl ook projecti ons; se e http://www.conference-board.org/data/gl obal outl ook.cfm).

3Th ese heaters have in-home em itting lifespa ns of at l ea st 20 y ears; thus wood stove s shipped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048.
4Es ti mate d em issions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Ste p 2standard i n 2020. For woodstoves, estim ate s assume t hat most models al re ady me et the Ste p 1 l im itand that manuf acture rsw ill ce rti fyand sell existi ng model s me eting Ste p 1 standard duri ng 2015 th rough 2019. The re fore no em is sion re ducti ons are
esti mate d unti l Ste p 2i n 2020.

5Th e nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre se nts the co st to manuf acture rsresulting from the R&D re -desig n to me etthe N SPS assumi ng a 10- yea r mode l life. Cumul ati ve Emi ssi on Reducti on over

20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespan Nationwide cu mul at ive cost 5

# 18 Base lin e PM2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (t ons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (t ons) Em is si on

Re ducti on (t ons) 6 CEb as ed on

nati onwide
av erage annual cos t (perton) Base lin e PM2. 5

Em is si ons (t ons) NSPS PM2. 5

Em is sio ns (t ons) Em is si on

Re ducti on (t ons) 6
2015 4 $1, 336, 900 $798, 556 56 56 0 N/A 56 56 0 2016 $1, 336, 900 $798, 556 57 57 0 N/A 114 114 0 2017 $1, 336, 900 $798, 556 59 59 0 N/A 172 172 0 2018 $1, 416, 993 $798, 556 60 60 0 N/A 232 232 0 2019 $1, 416, 993 $798, 556 61 61 0 N/A 293 293 0 2020 4 $1, 416, 993 $798, 556 62 28 35 $23, 145 355 320 35 2021 $412, 963 $798, 556 63 28 35 $22, 691 418 348 70 2022 $412, 963 $798, 556 65 29 36 $22, 247 483 377 106 2023 $412, 963 $798, 556 66 29 37 $21, 810 549 406 142 2024 $412, 963 $798, 556 67 30 37 $21, 383 616 436 180 2025 $412, 963 $798, 556 69 30 38 $20, 963 684 467 218 2026 $412, 963 $798, 556 70 31 39 $20, 552 754 498 256 2027 $412, 963 $798, 556 71 32 40 $20, 149 826 530 296 2028 $412, 963 $798, 556 73 32 40 $19, 754 899 562 337 2029 $412, 963 $798, 556 74 33 41 $19, 367 973 595 378 2030 973 595 378 2031 973 595 378 2032 973 595 378 2033 973 595 378 2034 973 595 378 2035 916 539 378 2036 859 481 378 2037 801 423 378 2038 741 363 378 2039 680 302 378 2040 618 275 343 2041 555 246 308 2042 490 218 272 2043 424 188 236 2044 357 159 198 2045 288 128 160 2046 218 97 121 2047 147 65 82 2048 74 33 41

$11, 978, 347 5, 917 $2, 024

6 In orde r to not ove rstate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em is si ons are re duced to discount pe llets tove s al re ady me et ingthe Step 2l im it (i .e., 70%of pellet stove s al re ady mee t the Ste p 2 l im it ). **Tabl e**  **11. Cost Effe**  **ctive ness (CE) ba** **se d on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve P**  **M 2.**  **5 e**  **missions from Pe llet** **Stove s** 

1Esti mated nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6-yea r amorti zati on period of R&D cos ts at a 3% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re presenting a 10 y ear mode l life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 a re p ast the 10-year mode l design lifesp an use d inthi s analysi s. 2Esti mated annual e mi ssions areb as ed on a fore caste d re ven ue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shipments) of 2. 0%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, i n ke ep ing wit h the ave rage
an nua l growth i n re al GDPpre dicte d by the US Bure au of Economi c A nal ysis (May 2014 Up date of Gl obal O utl ook projecti ons; se e http://www.conferen ce
board.org/data/gl obal outlook.cfm)

. 3Th es e heate rsh ave i n-home em itti ng lifes pans of at l ea st 20 y ears; thus pe llets tove s shi ppe d in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual C ost Annual S na pshots Em is si on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve pe r y ear

4Esti mated e mi ssions assume Ste p 1standard be come s e ffecti ve i n 2015 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2020. F or pelletstove s, est im ate s assume t hat most mode lsal re ady me et the Step 1l im itand that manufacturers wi ll ce rtify and sell existing models me eting Ste p 1 s tandard during 2015 t hrough 2019. Th erefore no e mi ssion re ducti ons are estimated unti l Ste p 2 i n 2020.
5Th e nationwide cumul at ive cost repre se nts the cos t to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re -design to me etthe N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingco sts to bri ng these s tove s to marke t f rom 2015 th rough 2029. CE base d on total
co st & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng li fesp an (perton)

Nati onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- ye ar s tove lifes pan

# 19 Base line PM2. 5 Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emissi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) CEb ase d on

nati onwi de average annual co st (per ton) Base line PM2.5

Emi ssi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emissi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Reducti on (tons) 2015 4 $932, 093 $346, 374 877 251 626 $553 877 251 626 2016 $932, 093 $346, 374 895 256 638 $543 1, 771 507 1, 264 2017 $932, 093 $346, 374 912 261 651 $532 2, 684 768 1, 916 2018 $601, 557 $346, 374 931 266 664 $521 3, 614 1, 035 2, 580 2019 $601, 557 $346, 374 949 272 678 $511 4, 564 1, 306 3, 257 2020 4 $601, 557 $346, 374 968 123 845 $410 5, 532 1, 430 4, 102 2021 $66, 074 $346, 374 988 126 862 $402 6, 520 1, 555 4, 964 2022 $66, 074 $346, 374 1, 007 128 879 $394 7, 527 1, 683 5, 843 2023 $66, 074 $346, 374 1, 027 131 897 $386 8, 554 1, 814 6, 740 2024 $66, 074 $346, 374 1, 048 133 915 $379 9, 602 1, 948 7, 655 2025 $66, 074 $346, 374 1, 069 136 933 $371 10, 671 2, 084 8, 588 2026 $66, 074 $346, 374 1, 090 139 952 $364 11, 762 2, 222 9, 540 2027 $66, 074 $346, 374 1, 112 142 971 $357 12, 874 2, 364 10, 510 2028 $66, 074 $346, 374 1, 134 144 990 $350 14, 009 2, 508 11, 500 2029 $66, 074 $346, 374 1, 157 147 1, 010 $343 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2030 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2031 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2032 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2033 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2034 15, 166 2, 655 12, 510 2035 14, 289 2, 404 11, 884 2036 13, 394 2, 148 11, 246 2037 12, 482 1, 887 10, 595 2038 11, 551 1, 621 9, 931 2039 10, 602 1, 349 9, 253 2040 9, 634 1, 226 8, 408 2041 8, 646 1, 100 7, 546 2042 7, 639 972 6, 667 2043 6, 611 841 5, 770 2044 5, 563 708 4, 855 2045 4, 494 572 3, 922 2046 3, 404 433 2, 971 2047 2, 292 292 2, 000 2048 1, 157 147 1, 010

$5, 195, 617 171, 119 $30 **Tabl e**  **12. C**  **ost Effe cti**  **ve ne**  **ss (CE) ba** **sed on an**  **nual and cumul**  **ati ve** **PM 2.5** **e mi**  **ssions fr om Si**  **ngl e**  **Bu rn** **Rate S** **to ve**  **s**

1Esti mate d nati onwi de annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are b ased on a 6-yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 3%i ntere st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , pl us annual certifi cati on and re porti ng & re co rd keeping co sts (o ngoi ng through 2029, re pres enting a 10 y ea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10- ye ar mode l de sign lifespa n used in th is anal ysi s.
2Esti mate d annual e mi ssi ons are base d on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 0% f rom 2015 th rough 2029, i n keeping with the average annual growth in re al G DP pre di cte d by the USBu re au ofEconomi c A na lysis (M ay 2014 Up da te of Gl obal O utl ook proj ecti ons; see http://www.confe re nce
board.org/data/gl obaloutlook.cfm).

3The se hea ters have i n-home em itti ng l ifespa ns ofat l ea st 20 years; thus single b urn rate stove s shipped in 2029 w ill be e mi tting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Na tionwide

Annual C ost 1 Na tionwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssi on Re ducti on, cu mul ati ve pery ea r

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step2 standard in 2020.
5The n ati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre sents the cost to manufacture rs re sulting from the R&D re -desig n to me et the N SPS and the N SPS-cau sed ce rti ficati on and re porting &
re cordke eping costs to bri ng these stoves to marke t f rom 2015 th ro ugh 2029. CEb ase d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re duction
ove r 20- year
em itti ng l ifespan (pert on)

Na ti onwi de cumulati ve cost 5 Cumulati ve Emi ssi on Re ducti on over 20- year emitt in g lifespa n

# 20 Base line PM 2. 5 Em is sions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
average annual cost (pe r to n) Base lin e PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $40, 292, 072 $14, 699, 957 10, 299 7, 008 3, 291 $4, 467 10, 299 7, 008 3, 291 2016 4 $40, 292, 072 $14, 699, 957 10, 505 5, 878 4, 627 $3, 177 20, 804 12, 887 7, 918 2017 4 $32, 963, 552 $14, 699, 957 10, 715 2, 108 8, 607 $1, 708 31, 520 14, 995 16, 525 2018 $33, 019, 552 $14, 699, 957 10, 930 2, 150 8, 779 $1, 674 42, 449 17, 145 25, 304 2019 $33, 019, 552 $14, 699, 957 11, 148 2, 193 8, 955 $1, 642 53, 598 19, 339 34, 259 2020 4 $33, 019, 552 $14, 699, 957 11, 371 355 11, 016 $1, 334 64, 969 19, 694 45, 275 2021 $877, 000 $14, 699, 957 11, 599 362 11, 236 $1, 308 76, 567 20, 056 56, 511 2022 $877, 000 $14, 699, 957 11, 831 370 11, 461 $1, 283 88, 398 20, 426 67, 972 2023 $877, 000 $14, 699, 957 12, 067 377 11, 690 $1, 257 100, 465 20, 803 79, 662 2024 $877, 000 $14, 699, 957 12, 309 385 11, 924 $1, 233 112, 774 21, 188 91, 586 2025 $877, 000 $14, 699, 957 12, 555 392 12, 162 $1, 209 125, 329 21, 580 103, 748 2026 $877, 000 $14, 699, 957 12, 806 400 12, 406 $1, 185 138, 134 21, 980 116, 154 2027 $877, 000 $14, 699, 957 13, 062 408 12, 654 $1, 162 151, 196 22, 389 128, 808 2028 $877, 000 $14, 699, 957 13, 323 416 12, 907 $1, 139 164, 519 22, 805 141, 714 2029 $877, 000 $14, 699, 957 13, 590 425 13, 165 $1, 117 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2030 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2031 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2032 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2033 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2034 178, 109 23, 230 154, 879 2035 167, 810 16, 221 151, 589 2036 157, 305 10, 343 146, 962 2037 146, 589 8, 235 138, 355 2038 135, 660 6, 084 129, 575 2039 124, 511 3, 891 120, 620 2040 113, 140 3, 536 109, 605 2041 101, 542 3, 173 98, 368 2042 89, 711 2, 803 86, 908 2043 77, 644 2, 426 75, 217 2044 65, 335 2, 042 63, 294 2045 52, 781 1, 649 51, 131 2046 39, 975 1, 249 38, 726 2047 3 26, 913 841 26, 072 2048 3 13, 590 425 13, 165

$220, 499, 351 2, 178, 862 $101 **Tabl e**  **13. Cost Ef** **fec ti**  **ve ne**  **ss (CE) base**  **d on an**  **nual an**  **d cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2.5 e**  **mi ssions from Central He**  **ate rs** **( For** **ce d Air Furnace**  **s and Hydroni c He**  **ati ng Syste**  **ms)**

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the cost to manuf acture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs to bri ng the se he ate rsto marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. 1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period ofR&D costs at a 3% i nterest rate ( during 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porting & re cordke ep in g costs (ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r mo del life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10-yea r mode l de si gn lifespa n use d in thi s anal ysis.
2Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are base d on a f ore caste d re venue g rowth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pments) of2. 0%f rom 2015 th rough 2029, i n ke ep in g wi th the av erage annual grow th i n re al GDPp re dicted by the USBure au ofEco nomicA nal ysis (May 2014 Up date ofGl obal Ou tl ook projections; se e http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/gl obal outlook.cfm ).

3The se he ate rshave i n-home emitting lifespa ns ofatl ea st 20 y ea rs; thus mode ls shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048. 4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard i n 2020 for al l appl ia nces, except force d-a irf urnace s h ave work practi ce /operational standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r smal l furnace s in 2016, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mission lim its for al l furnace s in 2020. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20-ye ar emitting lifespa n (p ert on) Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 Na ti onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Em issi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve p er y ea r

6 In orde r to n ot ove rstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are reduced tod iscount ce ntral h ea te rsal re ady me et in g the Ste p 2 l imit( i.e., 18%of hydroni c h ea te rs are e sti mate d to al re ady me et the Step 2 l imit ). Na ti onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- yea r emitting lifespa n

# 21 Base line PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) CE base d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual co st (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) 2015 4 $18, 399, 692 $5, 563, 663 6, 643 6, 643 0 N/A 6, 643 6, 643 0 2016 4 $18, 399, 692 $5, 563, 663 6, 776 5, 505 1, 270 $4, 379 13, 419 12, 148 1, 270 2017 4 $11, 071, 171 $5, 563, 663 6, 911 1, 728 5, 183 $1, 073 20, 330 13, 876 6, 454 2018 $11, 087, 642 $5, 563, 663 7, 049 1, 762 5, 287 $1, 052 27, 379 15, 638 11, 741 2019 $11, 087, 642 $5, 563, 663 7, 190 1, 798 5, 393 $1, 032 34, 570 17, 436 17, 134 2020 4 $11, 087, 642 $5, 563, 663 7, 334 229 7, 105 $783 41, 904 17, 665 24, 239 2021 $257, 941 $5, 563, 663 7, 481 234 7, 247 $768 49, 385 17, 899 31, 486 2022 $257, 941 $5, 563, 663 7, 631 238 7, 392 $753 57, 015 18, 137 38, 878 2023 $257, 941 $5, 563, 663 7, 783 243 7, 540 $738 64, 798 18, 381 46, 418 2024 $257, 941 $5, 563, 663 7, 939 248 7, 691 $723 72, 737 18, 629 54, 109 2025 $257, 941 $5, 563, 663 8, 098 253 7, 845 $709 80, 835 18, 882 61, 953 2026 $257, 941 $5, 563, 663 8, 260 258 8, 001 $695 89, 094 19, 140 69, 955 2027 $257, 941 $5, 563, 663 8, 425 263 8, 161 $682 97, 519 19, 403 78, 116 2028 $257, 941 $5, 563, 663 8, 593 269 8, 325 $668 106, 112 19, 672 86, 441 2029 $257, 941 $5, 563, 663 8, 765 274 8, 491 $655 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2030 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2031 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2032 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2033 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2034 114, 877 19, 945 94, 932 2035 108, 235 13, 303 94, 932 2036 101, 459 7, 797 93, 662 2037 94, 548 6, 070 88, 478 2038 87, 498 4, 307 83, 191 2039 80, 308 2, 510 77, 798 2040 72, 974 2, 280 70, 693 2041 65, 493 2, 047 63, 446 2042 57, 862 1, 808 56, 054 2043 50, 079 1, 565 48, 514 2044 42, 140 1, 317 40, 823 2045 34, 043 1, 064 32, 979 2046 25, 783 806 24, 977 2047 17, 358 542 16, 816 2048 8, 765 274 8, 491

$83, 454, 951 1, 370, 447 $61

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 s tandard be come s effecti ve in 2015 an d Ste p 2 s tandard i n 2020 f or al l appl ia nce s, except force d-a ir f urnace s have wor k practi ce /operati onal standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its for smal l furna ce s in 2016, Ste p 1e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mi ssion lim its for al l furna ce s in 2020. 5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre se nts the co st to manufacture rs re sulti ng f rom the R&D re -d es ig n to me et the N SPS and the N SPS- cause d ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rd ke ep ing costs to bri ng these he at ers to marke t f rom 2014 t hrough 2029. CE base d on total
co st & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- ye ar
em itting lifespa n (per ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul at ive Emi ssi on Re ducti on over 20- yea r
em itting lifespa n **Tabl e**  **14. Cost Ef** **fec ti**  **ve ne**  **ss (CE) base d on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2.5 e**  **mi ssions**  **fr om Force**  **d Ai r F**  **urnace s** 

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 3%i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r model life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- yea r mode l desig n lifespa n use d i n thi s anal ysis. 2Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are b as ed on a fo re caste d re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogate f or sh ipments) of 2. 0%f rom 2015 through 2029, i n ke eping with the ave rage annual growth i n re al GDP p re dicted by the USBure au of Economi c A na lysis (M ay2014 Up date of Gl obal O utl ook proje cti ons; se e http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/gl oba lo utl ook.cfm).

3The se h ea ters have in-home em itti ng l ifes pans of atl ea st 20 ye ars; thus force d-air fu rnace s shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048. Ye ar 3 Na ti onwide

Annual Cost 1 Na ti onwide

Ave rage Annual Cost Annua l Snapshots Emi ssion Re duction, cu mulative per y ea r

# 22 Base line PM2. 5 Emissi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CEbase d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual co st (per ton) Base line PM2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $21, 892, 380 $9, 136, 293. 29 3, 656 366 3, 291 $2, 776 3, 656 366 3, 291 2016 $21, 892, 380 $9, 136, 293. 29 3, 730 373 3, 357 $2, 722 7, 386 739 6, 647 2017 $21, 892, 380 $9, 136, 293. 29 3, 804 380 3, 424 $2, 669 11, 190 1, 119 10, 071 2018 $21, 931, 910 $9, 136, 293. 29 3, 880 388 3, 492 $2, 616 15, 070 1, 507 13, 563 2019 $21, 931, 910 $9, 136, 293. 29 3, 958 396 3, 562 $2, 565 19, 028 1, 903 17, 125 2020 4 $21, 931, 910 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 037 126 3, 911 $2, 336 23, 065 2, 029 21, 036 2021 $619, 059 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 118 129 3, 989 $2, 290 27, 183 2, 158 25, 025 2022 $619, 059 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 200 131 4, 069 $2, 245 31, 383 2, 289 29, 094 2023 $619, 059 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 284 134 4, 150 $2, 201 35, 667 2, 423 33, 244 2024 $619, 059 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 370 137 4, 233 $2, 158 40, 037 2, 559 37, 477 2025 $619, 059 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 457 139 4, 318 $2, 116 44, 494 2, 699 41, 795 2026 $619, 059 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 546 142 4, 404 $2, 074 49, 040 2, 841 46, 199 2027 $619, 059 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 637 145 4, 492 $2, 034 53, 677 2, 986 50, 692 2028 $619, 059 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 730 148 4, 582 $1, 994 58, 407 3, 133 55, 274 2029 $619, 059 $9, 136, 293. 29 4, 825 151 4, 674 $1, 955 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2030 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2031 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2032 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2033 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2034 63, 232 3, 284 59, 947 2035 59, 575 2, 919 56, 657 2036 55, 846 2, 546 53, 300 2037 52, 042 2, 165 49, 876 2038 48, 161 1, 777 46, 384 2039 44, 204 1, 381 42, 822 2040 40, 167 1, 255 38, 911 2041 36, 049 1, 127 34, 922 2042 31, 849 995 30, 854 2043 27, 565 861 26, 703 2044 23, 195 725 22, 470 2045 18, 738 586 18, 152 2046 14, 192 443 13, 748 2047 3 9, 554 299 9, 256 2048 3 4, 825 151 4, 674

$137, 044, 399 808, 415 $170

6 In orde r to not overstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are re duce d to discount hydroni c h ea te rs al re ady me et ing the Ste p 2 l im it( i.e., 18%of hydroni c h ea te rsare e sti mate d to al re ady me etthe Ste p 2 l im it ). **Tabl e**  **15. Cost Ef** **fec tiveness (CE) based on a**  **nnual a nd cumula** **tive PM 2.5** **e mi**  **ssions fr** **om Hydroni c He**  **ati ng Syste**  **ms**

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 3% interestrate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingcosts ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se ntinga 10 y ea r model life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are past the 10- ye ar mode l design lifes pan use d i n thi s anal ysis.

2Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are base d on a fore casted re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogate for shi pments) of 2. 0%f rom 2015 through 2029, i n ke eping wit h the ave rage annual growth i n re al GDPp re dicte d by the US Bure au of Economi c A nal ysis (M ay2014 Up date ofGl obal O utl ook projecti ons; se e http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/gl obal outl ook.cfm).

3These he at ers have i n-home em ittingl ifespa ns of at lea st 20 y ea rs; thus hydroni c h ea te rs shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048. Ye ar Na ti onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul at ive per y ea r

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 standard be co me s effective in 2015 an d Ste p 2s tandard in 2020.

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the co st to manuf acture rs re sultingf rom the R&D re -desig n to me etthe N SPS and the N SPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingcosts to bri ng the se heaters to marke t f rom 2014 th rough 2029. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespa n (per ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re ducti on ove r 20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespa n

# 23 Base line PM 2. 5 Em is sions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
average annual cost (pe r to n) Base lin e PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $45, 222, 674 $16, 909, 531 11, 614 7, 697 3, 917 $4, 317 11, 614 7, 697 3, 917 2016 4 $45, 222, 674 $16, 909, 531 11, 846 6, 581 5, 265 $3, 211 23, 460 14, 278 9, 182 2017 4 $37, 894, 153 $16, 909, 531 12, 083 2, 825 9, 258 $1, 826 35, 543 17, 102 18, 440 2018 $37, 699, 709 $16, 909, 531 12, 365 2, 922 9, 443 $1, 791 47, 908 20, 024 27, 884 2019 $37, 699, 709 $16, 909, 531 12, 612 2, 980 9, 632 $1, 755 60, 520 23, 004 37, 516 2020 4 $37, 699, 709 $16, 909, 531 12, 865 765 12, 099 $1, 398 73, 385 23, 769 49, 616 2021 $1, 356, 037 $16, 909, 531 13, 122 780 12, 341 $1, 370 86, 507 24, 550 61, 957 2022 $1, 356, 037 $16, 909, 531 13, 384 796 12, 588 $1, 343 99, 891 25, 346 74, 545 2023 $1, 356, 037 $16, 909, 531 13, 652 812 12, 840 $1, 317 113, 543 26, 158 87, 385 2024 $1, 356, 037 $16, 909, 531 13, 925 828 13, 097 $1, 291 127, 468 26, 986 100, 482 2025 $1, 356, 037 $16, 909, 531 14, 203 845 13, 359 $1, 266 141, 671 27, 831 113, 841 2026 $1, 356, 037 $16, 909, 531 14, 488 862 13, 626 $1, 241 156, 159 28, 692 127, 466 2027 $1, 356, 037 $16, 909, 531 14, 777 879 13, 898 $1, 217 170, 936 29, 571 141, 365 2028 $1, 356, 037 $16, 909, 531 15, 073 897 14, 176 $1, 193 186, 009 30, 468 155, 541 2029 $1, 356, 037 $16, 909, 531 15, 374 914 14, 460 $1, 169 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2030 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2031 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2032 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2033 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2034 201, 383 31, 382 170, 001 2035 189, 769 23, 685 166, 084 2036 177, 923 17, 104 160, 819 2037 165, 840 14, 280 151, 561 2038 153, 475 11, 358 142, 117 2039 140, 863 8, 378 132, 485 2040 127, 998 7, 613 120, 385 2041 114, 877 6, 833 108, 044 2042 101, 492 6, 037 95, 456 2043 87, 840 5, 225 82, 616 2044 73, 915 4, 396 69, 519 2045 59, 712 3, 552 56, 160 2046 45, 224 2, 690 42, 535 20473 30, 447 1, 811 28, 636 2048 3 15, 374 914 14, 460

$253, 642, 960 2, 390, 882 $106 Na ti onwide Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period ofR&D costs at a 3% i nterest rate ( during 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porting & re cordke ep in g costs (ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r mo del life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10-yea r mode l de si gn lifespa n use d in thi s anal ysis.
2Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are base d on a f ore caste d re venue g rowth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pments) of2. 0%f rom 2015 th rough 2029, i n ke ep in g wi th the av erage annual grow th i n re al GDPp re dicted by the USBure au ofEco nomicA nal ysis (May 2014 Up date ofGl obal Ou tl ook projections; se e http://www.conferenceboard.org/data/gl obal outlook.cfm ).

3The se he ate rshave i n-home emitting lifespa ns ofatl ea st 20 y ea rs; thus mode ls shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048.
4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard i n 2020 for al l appl ia nces, except force d-a irf urnace s h ave work practi ce /operational standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r smal l furnace s in 2016, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mission lim its for al l furnace s in 2020.

6 In orde r to n ot ove rstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are reduced tod iscount room he ate rsand ce ntral h ea te rsal re ad y me et in g the Ste p 2 l im it (i.e., 26%ofw ood stoves, 70%ofp ellet stoves and 18%o f hydroni c h ea te rs are e sti mate d to al re ady me et the Step 2 l imit ). **Tabl e**  **16. C**  **ost Eff ec** **ti ve**  **ness (CE) base d on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2. 5** **e mi**  **ssions from Central H ea** **te rs**  **(Forc ed** **Ai r Furnace**  **s and Hydroni c He**  **ati ng Syste**  **ms) an**  **d Room He**  **ate rs** **( Wo** **od Stove s,**  **P ellet** **Stove s, and Single**  **Burn Rate Stove**  **s)**
CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20-ye ar emitting lifespa n (p ert on) Em issi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve p er y ea r

Na ti onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- yea r emitting lifespa n

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the cost to manuf acture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs to bri ng the se he ate rsto marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1

# 24 This page left intentionally blank

# A

- 0 

# Appendix A **Sensitivity Analysis: Growth in shipments**
The following cost effectiveness (CE) tables are based on varying the forecasted growth in shipments and therefore emissions . The sensitivity analysis uses growth rates of 2.1%, 2.5% and 3.0%. A growth rate of 2.0% is used for our final emission and CE estimates described in the body of this memo. All sensitivity analysis estimates are based on a 7% interest rate for amortized costs.

 Tables A

- 1 through A

- 8 are based on a forecasted growth in shipments and emissions of 2.1%

 Tables A

- 9 through A

- 16 are based on a forecasted growth in shipments and emissions of 2.5%

 Tables A

- 1 7 through A

-24 are based on a forecasted growth in shipments and emissions of 3.0%

# A

- 1 Baseli ne P M 2. 5 

### Emi ssi ons 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions 2 

### (tons) Emi ssion

Reduction (tons) 6 

### CEb ased on

nati onwide average annual co st (perto n) Baseli ne P M 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6


### 2015 4 

### $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 321 692 629 $3, 903 1, 321 692 629 2016 $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 349 707 642 $3, 822 2, 670 1, 399 1, 271 2017 $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 377 721 656 $3, 744 4, 047 2, 120 1, 927 2018 $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 443 774 669 $3, 667 5, 490 2, 894 2, 596 2019 $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 473 790 684 $3, 591 6, 963 3, 684 3, 280 2020 4 

### $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 504 412 1, 093 $2, 247 8, 468 4, 095 4, 372 2021 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 536 420 1, 116 $2, 200 10, 004 4, 516 5, 488 2022 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 568 429 1, 139 $2, 155 11, 572 4, 945 6, 627 2023 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 601 438 1, 163 $2, 111 13, 173 5, 383 7, 790 2024 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 635 448 1, 187 $2, 067 14, 808 5, 831 8, 977 2025 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 669 457 1, 212 $2, 025 16, 477 6, 288 10, 189 2026 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 704 466 1, 238 $1, 983 18, 181 6, 754 11, 427 2027 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 740 476 1, 264 $1, 942 19, 921 7, 231 12, 691 2028 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 777 486 1, 290 $1, 902 21, 698 7, 717 13, 981 2029 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 814 497 1, 317 $1, 863 23, 512 8, 213 15, 298 2030 23, 512 8, 213 15, 298 2031 23, 512 8, 213 15, 298 2032 23, 512 8, 213 15, 298 2033 23, 512 8, 213 15, 298 2034 23, 512 8, 213 15, 298 2035 22, 191 7, 521 14, 669 2036 20, 842 6, 815 14, 027 2037 19, 465 6, 093 13, 371 2038 18, 022 5, 320 12, 702 2039 16, 548 4, 530 12, 018 2040 15, 044 4, 118 10, 926 2041 13, 508 3, 698 9, 810 2042 11, 940 3, 268 8, 671 2043 10, 338 2, 830 7, 508 2044 8, 704 2, 382 6, 321 2045 7, 034 1, 926 5, 109 2046 5, 330 1, 459 3, 871 2047 3, 590 983 2, 608 2048 1, 814 497 1, 317

$36, 819, 222 214, 718 $171 **Tab le**  **A- 1.** **C ost Ef** **fec ti**  **ve ness**  **(C E) based on annual and cumulati**  **ve P**  **M 2.**  **5**

### e **mi ssi**  **ons from Room H ea** **ters (W ood Stoves, Pe**  **llet S** **tove s,**  **and Si ngle**  **Bu rn** **Rate Stove**  **s)**

Na ti onwi de cumul ati ve cost 5

5

### The nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pres ents the cost to manufactu re rs re sulting from the R&D re -desig n to me et the NSPS and the N SPS-caused ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re cordke eping costs to bri ng the se stove s to mark et from 2015 t hrough 2029. Ye ar 3 

### Na tionwi de

Annual Cost 1 

### Na tionwide

Average Annual C ost

1

### Esti mate d nati onwi de annual costs are i n 2013 $ an d are b ase d on a 6-ye ar amorti zati on pe ri od ofR&D co sts at a 7% interest rate ( durin g 2015- 2020) , pl us annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke ep ingco sts (ongoi ng through 2029, re pres ent in g a 10 yea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10-yea r model de sign lifesp an use d i n thi s anal ysis.
2

### Ex ce pt for

an adjustment in yea r 2018 bas ed o n an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA), estima ted annual e mi ssi ons are base d on a forecasted re ve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for

s hipm en ts) of2. 1%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for the purposes of a se nsi ti vity anal ysis.

4

### Esti mate d e missions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s effecti ve in 2015 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2020. I n orde r to not overesti mate e missi on re ducti ons re sulting from the ru le, for

w oodstoves and pelletstove s, esti mate s assume that most model s al re ady me et the Ste p 1 l imitand that manufacturers will ce rti fy and se ll existing model s me eting Step 1 standard f ro m 2015 t hrough 2019. Th erefore no emissi on re ducti ons are e stimated to re sul t f ro m woodstove s and pe lletstoves until Ste p 2 i n 2020.

6 

### In order to not ove rstate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em issions are re duce d to di scount room he ate rs al re ady mee ting the Step 2 l im it( i.e., 26%o f wood stove s and 70%ofpe lletstoves are e stimate d to al re ady me et the Ste p 2 l imit ). CE b ased on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- ye ar emitti ng l ifespan (perto n)

3

### The se heate rsh ave i n- home em itting lifesp ans ofat l ea st 20 y ears; thus room heate rss hipped in 2029 w ill be em itting through 2048. Cumulative Emi ssion Reduction over 20- ye ar
em itting lifespa n Emi ssi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve pe r y ea r Annual Snapshots

# A

- 2 Base line PM 2. 5 Em issions 2 (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Emissi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE based on

nati onwide
average
an nual co st (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Em issions (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 383 383 0 N/A 383 383 0 2016 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 391 391 0 N/A 775 775 0 2017 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 399 399 0 N/A 1, 174 1, 174 0 2018 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 445 445 0 N/A 1, 619 1, 619 0 2019 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 454 454 0 N/A 2, 073 2, 073 0 2020 4 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 464 260 204 $5, 920 2, 537 2, 333 204 2021 $0 $1, 209, 971 474 265 209 $5, 799 3, 011 2, 598 413 2022 $0 $1, 209, 971 484 271 213 $5, 679 3, 495 2, 868 626 2023 $0 $1, 209, 971 494 276 218 $5, 563 3, 988 3, 145 844 2024 $0 $1, 209, 971 504 282 222 $5, 448 4, 492 3, 427 1, 066 2025 $0 $1, 209, 971 515 288 227 $5, 336 5, 007 3, 715 1, 292 2026 $0 $1, 209, 971 526 294 232 $5, 226 5, 533 4, 009 1, 524 2027 $0 $1, 209, 971 537 300 236 $5, 119 6, 069 4, 309 1, 760 2028 $0 $1, 209, 971 548 306 241 $5, 014 6, 617 4, 615 2, 002 2029 $0 $1, 209, 971 559 313 246 $4, 910 7, 176 4, 928 2, 248 2030 7, 176 4, 928 2, 248 2031 7, 176 4, 928 2, 248 2032 7, 176 4, 928 2, 248 2033 7, 176 4, 928 2, 248 2034 7, 176 4, 928 2, 248 2035 6, 793 4, 545 2, 248 2036 6, 402 4, 154 2, 248 2037 6, 002 3, 754 2, 248 2038 5, 557 3, 309 2, 248 2039 5, 103 2, 855 2, 248 2040 4, 639 2, 595 2, 044 2041 4, 165 2, 330 1, 835 2042 3, 682 2, 060 1, 622 2043 3, 188 1, 784 1, 404 2044 2, 684 1, 501 1, 182 2045 2, 169 1, 214 956 2046 1, 644 920 724 2047 1, 107 619 488 2048 559 313 246

$18, 149, 566 35, 231 $515

3Th ese heaters have in-home em itting lifespa ns of at l ea st 20 y ears; thus wood stove s shipped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048.
4Es ti mate d em issions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Ste p 2standard i n 2020. For woodstoves, estim ate s assume t hat most models al re ady me et the Ste p 1 l im itand that manuf acture rsw ill ce rti fyand sell existi ng model s me eting Ste p 1 standard duri ng 2015 th rough 2019. The re fore no em is sion re ducti ons are
esti mate d unti l Ste p 2i n 2020.

5Th e nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre se nts the co st to manuf acture rsresulting from the R&D re -desig n to me etthe N SPS assumi ng a 10- yea r mode l life. Cumul ati ve Emi ssi on Reducti on over

20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespan Nationwide cu mul at ive cost 5

6 In orde r to not ove rs tate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em is si ons are re duced to di scount wood stoves al re ady me et ing the Ste p 2 l im it( i.e., 26%of wood stoves al re ady me etthe Ste p 2l im it ). **Tabl e**  **A- 2.** **Cost Effectiveness (CE) ba** **sed on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve P**  **M 2.**  **5 e**  **mi ssions from Wood Stove**  **s**

Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cu mul ati ve per y ea r CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em is sion re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng lifespa n (per ton)

1Es ti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period of R&D cos ts at a 7% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020 )

. Ye ars2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- yea r model design lifespa n use d i n this an al ysis.
2Ex ce pt for an adj ustment in yea r 2018 b as ed on an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA), estimated annual e mi ssions are b ase d on a fore cas te d re ve nue growth rate ( as a s urrogate for shi pments) of 2. 1%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029,for the purpose s ofa se nsi tivity anal ysis.

# A

- 3 Base lin e PM2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (t ons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (t ons) Em is si on

Re ducti on (t ons) 6 CEb as ed on

nati onwide
av erage annual cos t (perton) Base lin e PM2. 5

Em is si ons (t ons) NSPS PM2. 5

Em is sio ns (t ons) Em is si on

Re ducti on (t ons) 6
2015 4 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 57 57 0 N/A 57 57 0 2016 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 58 58 0 N/A 114 114 0 2017 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 59 59 0 N/A 173 173 0 2018 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 60 60 0 N/A 233 233 0 2019 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 61 61 0 N/A 295 295 0 2020 4 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 63 28 35 $24, 611 357 323 35 2021 $412, 963 $857, 473 64 28 36 $24, 104 421 351 70 2022 $412, 963 $857, 473 65 29 36 $23, 609 487 380 107 2023 $412, 963 $857, 473 67 30 37 $23, 123 554 410 144 2024 $412, 963 $857, 473 68 30 38 $22, 647 622 440 182 2025 $412, 963 $857, 473 70 31 39 $22, 182 691 471 220 2026 $412, 963 $857, 473 71 32 39 $21, 725 762 503 260 2027 $412, 963 $857, 473 73 32 40 $21, 279 835 535 300 2028 $412, 963 $857, 473 74 33 41 $20, 841 909 568 341 2029 $412, 963 $857, 473 76 34 42 $20, 412 985 601 383 2030 985 601 383 2031 985 601 383 2032 985 601 383 2033 985 601 383 2034 985 601 383 2035 928 545 383 2036 870 487 383 2037 811 428 383 2038 751 368 383 2039 690 307 383 2040 627 279 348 2041 563 250 313 2042 498 221 277 2043 431 192 239 2044 363 161 202 2045 293 130 163 2046 222 99 123 2047 150 67 83 2048 76 34 42

$12, 862, 099 6, 006 $2, 142

4Esti mated e mi ssions assume Ste p 1standard be come s e ffecti ve i n 2015 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2020. F or pelletstove s, est im ate s assume t hat most mode lsal re ady me et the Step 1l im itand that manufacturers wi ll ce rtify and sell existing models me eting Ste p 1 s tandard during 2015 t hrough 2019. Th erefore no e mi ssion re ducti ons are estimated unti l Ste p 2 i n 2020.
5Th e nationwide cumul at ive cost repre se nts the cos t to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re -design to me etthe N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingco sts to bri ng these s tove s to marke t f rom 2015 th rough 2029. CE base d on total
co st & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng li fesp an (perton)

Nati onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- ye ar s tove lifes pan

6 In orde r to not ove rstate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em is si ons are re duced to discount pe llets tove s al re ady me et ingthe Step 2l im it (i .e., 70%of pellet stove s al re ady mee t the Ste p 2 l im it ). **Tabl e**  **A-3 . Cost Effe**  **cti ve**  **ne ss**  **(C E)** **base d**  **on annual and cumul**  **ati ve PM**  **2. 5** **e missions from Pelle**  **t Stoves**

1Esti mated nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6-yea r amorti zati on period of R&D cos ts at a 7% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re presenting a 10 y ear mode l life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 a re p ast the 10-year mode l design lifesp an use d inthi s analysi s.

2Esti mated annual e mi ssions areb as ed on a fore caste d re ven ue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shipments) of 2. 1%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for the p urposes of a se nsitivity
an alysis.

3Th es e heate rsh ave i n-home em itti ng lifes pans of at l ea st 20 y ears; thus pe llets tove s shi ppe d in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual C ost Annual S na pshots Em is si on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve pe r y ear

# A

- 4 Base line PM2. 5 Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emissi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) CEb ase d on

nati onwi de average annual co st (per ton) Base line PM2.5

Emi ssi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emissi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Reducti on (tons) 2015 4 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 881 252 629 $616 881 252 629 2016 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 900 258 642 $603 1, 781 510 1, 271 2017 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 919 263 656 $590 2, 700 773 1, 927 2018 $680, 112 $387, 171 938 269 669 $578 3, 638 1, 041 2, 596 2019 $680, 112 $387, 171 958 274 684 $566 4, 595 1, 316 3, 280 2020 4 $680, 112 $387, 171 978 124 853 $454 5, 573 1, 440 4, 133 2021 $66, 074 $387, 171 998 127 871 $444 6, 571 1, 567 5, 004 2022 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 019 130 890 $435 7, 591 1, 697 5, 894 2023 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 041 132 908 $426 8, 631 1, 829 6, 802 2024 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 063 135 927 $418 9, 694 1, 964 7, 730 2025 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 085 138 947 $409 10, 779 2, 102 8, 676 2026 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 108 141 967 $401 11, 886 2, 243 9, 643 2027 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 131 144 987 $392 13, 017 2, 387 10, 630 2028 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 155 147 1, 008 $384 14, 172 2, 534 11, 638 2029 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 179 150 1, 029 $376 15, 351 2, 684 12, 667 2030 15, 351 2, 684 12, 667 2031 15, 351 2, 684 12, 667 2032 15, 351 2, 684 12, 667 2033 15, 351 2, 684 12, 667 2034 15, 351 2, 684 12, 667 2035 14, 469 2, 432 12, 038 2036 13, 570 2, 174 11, 396 2037 12, 651 1, 911 10, 740 2038 11, 713 1, 643 10, 070 2039 10, 755 1, 368 9, 387 2040 9, 778 1, 244 8, 534 2041 8, 779 1, 117 7, 662 2042 7, 760 987 6, 773 2043 6, 719 855 5, 864 2044 5, 657 720 4, 937 2045 4, 572 582 3, 990 2046 3, 464 441 3, 024 2047 2, 334 297 2, 037 2048 1, 179 150 1, 029

$5, 807, 558 173, 481 $33

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step2 standard in 2020.
5The n ati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre sents the cost to manufacture rs re sulting from the R&D re -desig n to me et the N SPS and the N SPS-cau sed ce rti ficati on and re porting &
re cordke eping costs to bri ng these stoves to marke t f rom 2015 th ro ugh 2029. CEb ase d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re duction
ove r 20- year
em itti ng l ifespan (pert on)

Na ti onwi de cumulati ve cost 5 Cumulati ve Emi ssi on Re ducti on over 20- year emitt in g lifespa n **Tabl e**  **A-4**

**. Cost**  **Ef fec** **ti ve**  **ness (CE) base**  **d on annual an**  **d cumul ative**  **PM 2.5** **e mi**  **ssi ons**  **fr om Si**  **ngl e**  **Burn Rate Stove**  **s**

1Esti mate d nati onwi de annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are b ased on a 6-yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7%i ntere st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , pl us annual certifi cati on and re porti ng & re co rd keeping co sts (o ngoi ng through 2029, re pres enting a 10 y ea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10- ye ar mode l de sign lifespa n used in th is anal ysi s.
2Esti mate d annual e mi ssi ons are base d on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 1% f rom 2015 th rough 2029, for the p urposes of a se nsi tivity anal ysi s.
3The se hea ters have i n-home em itti ng l ifespa ns ofat l ea st 20 years; thus single b urn rate stove s shipped in 2029 w ill be e mi tting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Na tionwide

Annual C ost 1 Na tionwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssi on Re ducti on, cu mul ati ve pery ea r

# A

- 5 Base line PM 2. 5 Em is sions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
average annual cost (pe r to n) Base lin e PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $45, 761, 061 $16, 620, 786 10, 343 7, 042 3, 300 $5, 036 10, 343 7, 042 3, 300 2016 4 $45, 761, 061 $16, 620, 786 10, 560 5, 912 4, 648 $3, 576 20, 902 12, 954 7, 948 2017 4 $37, 432, 168 $16, 620, 786 10, 782 2, 122 8, 660 $1, 919 31, 684 15, 076 16, 608 2018 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 008 2, 167 8, 841 $1, 880 42, 692 17, 243 25, 449 2019 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 239 2, 212 9, 027 $1, 841 53, 931 19, 455 34, 476 2020 4 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 475 359 11, 117 $1, 495 65, 406 19, 813 45, 593 2021 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 11, 716 366 11, 350 $1, 464 77, 123 20, 180 56, 943 2022 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 11, 962 374 11, 588 $1, 434 89, 085 20, 553 68, 531 2023 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 213 382 11, 832 $1, 405 101, 298 20, 935 80, 363 2024 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 470 390 12, 080 $1, 376 113, 768 21, 325 92, 443 2025 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 732 398 12, 334 $1, 348 126, 500 21, 723 104, 777 2026 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 999 406 12, 593 $1, 320 139, 499 22, 129 117, 370 2027 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 272 415 12, 857 $1, 293 152, 771 22, 544 130, 227 2028 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 551 423 13, 127 $1, 266 166, 322 22, 967 143, 355 2029 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 835 432 13, 403 $1, 240 180, 157 23, 399 156, 758 2030 180, 157 23, 399 156, 758 2031 180, 157 23, 399 156, 758 2032 180, 157 23, 399 156, 758 2033 180, 157 23, 399 156, 758 2034 180, 157 23, 399 156, 758 2035 169, 815 16, 357 153, 457 2036 159, 255 10, 445 148, 810 2037 148, 473 8, 323 140, 150 2038 137, 465 6, 157 131, 309 2039 126, 226 3, 945 122, 282 2040 114, 751 3, 586 111, 165 2041 103, 035 3, 220 99, 815 2042 91, 073 2, 846 88, 227 2043 78, 859 2, 464 76, 395 2044 66, 389 2, 075 64, 315 2045 53, 657 1, 677 51, 981 2046 40, 658 1, 271 39, 388 2047 3 27, 386 856 26, 530 2048 3 13, 835 432 13, 403

$249, 311, 792 2, 207, 772 $113 Na ti onwide Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Em issi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve p er y ea r

6 In orde r to n ot ove rstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are reduced tod iscount ce ntral h ea te rsal re ady me et in g the Ste p 2 l imit( i.e., 18%of hydroni c h ea te rs are e sti mate d to al re ady me et the Step 2 l imit ). Na ti onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- yea r emitting lifespa n **Tab le**  **A- 5.** **Cost Ef fec** **tivene ss (CE) based on annual**  **an d cumulative** **P M**  **2.5 e**  **missions fr** **om Ce ntral**  **He ate**  **rs (**  **For ce**  **d Air Furnace s and Hydroni**  **c He at**  **ing Syste ms)** 

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the cost to manuf acture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs to bri ng the se he ate rsto marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. 1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period ofR&D costs at a 7% i nterest rate ( during 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porting & re cordke ep in g costs (ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r mo del life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10-yea r mode l de si gn lifespa n use d in thi s anal ysis.

2Ex ce pt for an adjustme nt i n ye ar 2012 b ase d on an in dustry projecti on (NE RA ), estimated annual e missions are base d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 1%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for th e purposes ofa s ensitivity an al ysis.

3The se he ate rshave i n-home emitting lifespa ns ofatl ea st 20 y ea rs; thus mode ls shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048.

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard i n 2020 for al l appl ia nces, except force d-a irf urnace s h ave work practi ce /operational standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r smal l furnace s in 2016, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mission lim its for al l furnace s in 2020. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20-ye ar emitting lifespa n (p ert on) Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1

# A

- 6 Base line PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) CE base d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual co st (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) 2015 4 $20, 905, 663 $6, 299, 286 6, 675 6, 675 0 N/A 6, 675 6, 675 0 2016 4 $20, 905, 663 $6, 299, 286 6, 816 5, 538 1, 278 $4, 929 13, 491 12, 213 1, 278 2017 4 $12, 576, 770 $6, 299, 286 6, 959 1, 740 5, 219 $1, 207 20, 450 13, 953 6, 497 2018 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 105 1, 776 5, 329 $1, 182 27, 555 15, 729 11, 826 2019 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 254 1, 814 5, 441 $1, 158 34, 809 17, 543 17, 266 2020 4 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 406 231 7, 175 $878 42, 215 17, 774 24, 441 2021 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 7, 562 236 7, 326 $860 49, 777 18, 010 31, 767 2022 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 7, 721 241 7, 480 $842 57, 498 18, 252 39, 247 2023 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 7, 883 246 7, 637 $825 65, 381 18, 498 46, 883 2024 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 048 252 7, 797 $808 73, 430 18, 750 54, 680 2025 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 217 257 7, 961 $791 81, 647 19, 006 62, 641 2026 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 390 262 8, 128 $775 90, 037 19, 269 70, 769 2027 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 566 268 8, 299 $759 98, 603 19, 536 79, 067 2028 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 746 273 8, 473 $743 107, 350 19, 810 87, 540 2029 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 930 279 8, 651 $728 116, 279 20, 089 96, 191 2030 116, 279 20, 089 96, 191 2031 116, 279 20, 089 96, 191 2032 116, 279 20, 089 96, 191 2033 116, 279 20, 089 96, 191 2034 116, 279 20, 089 96, 191 2035 109, 604 13, 413 96, 191 2036 102, 788 7, 875 94, 913 2037 95, 829 6, 136 89, 694 2038 88, 725 4, 359 84, 365 2039 81, 470 2, 546 78, 924 2040 74, 064 2, 314 71, 749 2041 66, 502 2, 078 64, 424 2042 58, 781 1, 837 56, 944 2043 50, 898 1, 591 49, 308 2044 42, 850 1, 339 41, 511 2045 34, 632 1, 082 33, 550 2046 26, 242 820 25, 422 2047 17, 676 552 17, 124 2048 8, 930 279 8, 651

$94, 489, 287 1, 389, 914 $68 **Tab le**  **A-6 . Cost Ef** **fec ti**  **ve ne**  **ss (CE) base d on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2.5 e**  **mi ssions**  **fr om Force**  **d Ai r F**  **urnace s** 

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7%i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r model life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- yea r mode l desig n lifespa n use d i n thi s anal ysis.

2Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are b as ed on a fo re caste d re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogate f or sh ipments) of 2. 1%f rom 2015 through 2029, for the p urpose s of a
se nsiti vi ty anal ysis.

3The se h ea ters have in-home em itti ng l ifes pans of atl ea st 20 ye ars; thus force d-air fu rnace s shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048. Ye ar 3 Na ti onwide

Annual Cost 1 Na ti onwide

Ave rage Annual Cost Annua l Snapshots Emi ssion Re duction, cu mulative per y ea r

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 s tandard be come s effecti ve in 2015 an d Ste p 2 s tandard i n 2020 f or al l appl ia nce s, except force d-a ir f urnace s have wor k practi ce /operati onal standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its for smal l furna ce s in 2016, Ste p 1e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mi ssion lim its for al l furna ce s in 2020. 5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre se nts the co st to manufacture rs re sulti ng f rom the R&D re -d es ig n to me et the N SPS and the N SPS- cause d ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rd ke ep ing costs to bri ng these he at ers to marke t f rom 2014 t hrough 2029. CE base d on total
co st & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- ye ar
em itting lifespa n (per ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul at ive Emi ssi on Re ducti on over 20- yea r
em itting lifespa n

# A

- 7 Base line PM2. 5 Emissi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CEbase d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual co st (per ton) Base line PM2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 667 367 3, 300 $3, 127 3, 667 367 3, 300 2016 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 744 374 3, 370 $3, 063 7, 411 741 6, 670 2017 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 823 382 3, 441 $3, 000 11, 234 1, 123 10, 111 2018 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 903 390 3, 513 $2, 938 15, 137 1, 514 13, 623 2019 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 985 399 3, 587 $2, 878 19, 122 1, 912 17, 210 2020 4 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 069 127 3, 942 $2, 619 23, 191 2, 039 21, 152 2021 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 154 130 4, 024 $2, 565 27, 345 2, 169 25, 176 2022 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 241 133 4, 109 $2, 512 31, 587 2, 302 29, 285 2023 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 330 135 4, 195 $2, 460 35, 917 2, 437 33, 480 2024 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 421 138 4, 283 $2, 410 40, 338 2, 575 37, 763 2025 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 514 141 4, 373 $2, 360 44, 853 2, 716 42, 136 2026 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 609 144 4, 465 $2, 312 49, 462 2, 860 46, 601 2027 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 706 147 4, 559 $2, 264 54, 168 3, 007 51, 160 2028 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 805 150 4, 655 $2, 218 58, 972 3, 158 55, 815 2029 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 906 153 4, 752 $2, 172 63, 878 3, 311 60, 567 2030 63, 878 3, 311 60, 567 2031 63, 878 3, 311 60, 567 2032 63, 878 3, 311 60, 567 2033 63, 878 3, 311 60, 567 2034 63, 878 3, 311 60, 567 2035 60, 211 2, 944 57, 267 2036 56, 467 2, 570 53, 897 2037 52, 644 2, 187 50, 456 2038 48, 741 1, 797 46, 944 2039 44, 756 1, 399 43, 357 2040 40, 687 1, 271 39, 415 2041 36, 533 1, 142 35, 391 2042 32, 291 1, 009 31, 282 2043 27, 961 874 27, 087 2044 23, 539 736 22, 804 2045 19, 025 595 18, 431 2046 14, 416 451 13, 966 2047 3 9, 710 303 9, 407 2048 3 4, 906 153 4, 752

$154, 822, 505 817, 858 $189

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 standard be co me s effective in 2015 an d Ste p 2s tandard in 2020.

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the co st to manuf acture rs re sultingf rom the R&D re -desig n to me etthe N SPS and the N SPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingcosts to bri ng the se heaters to marke t f rom 2014 th rough 2029. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespa n (per ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re ducti on ove r 20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespa n

6 In orde r to not overstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are re duce d to discount hydroni c h ea te rs al re ady me et ing the Ste p 2 l im it( i.e., 18%of hydroni c h ea te rsare e sti mate d to al re ady me etthe Ste p 2 l im it ). **Tabl e**  **A- 7.** **Cost Ef fec** **tiveness (CE) based on a nnual a**  **nd cumula tive PM**  **2.5 e**  **mi ssions**  **fr om Hydroni**  **c He ati**  **ng Syste ms** 

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7% interestrate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingcosts ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se ntinga 10 y ea r model life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are past the 10- ye ar mode l design lifes pan use d i n thi s anal ysis.

2Ex ce pt for an adjustment in yea r 2012 b as ed on an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA ), est im ate d annual e mi ssions are base d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogate for shi pments) of 2. 1%f rom 2015 through 2029, for the purpose s of a s ensitivity an al ysis.

3These he at ers have i n-home em ittingl ifespa ns of at lea st 20 y ea rs; thus hydroni c h ea te rs shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048. Ye ar Na ti onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul at ive per y ea r

# A

- 8 Base line PM 2. 5 Em is sions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
average annual cost (pe r to n) Base lin e PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $51, 327, 699 $19, 075, 401 11, 664 7, 734 3, 929 $4, 854 11, 664 7, 734 3, 929 2016 4 $51, 327, 699 $19, 075, 401 11, 909 6, 619 5, 290 $3, 606 23, 572 14, 353 9, 219 2017 4 $42, 998, 805 $19, 075, 401 12, 159 2, 843 9, 315 $2, 048 35, 731 17, 196 18, 535 2018 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 12, 451 2, 940 9, 511 $2, 006 48, 182 20, 137 28, 046 2019 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 12, 713 3, 002 9, 711 $1, 964 60, 895 23, 139 37, 756 2020 4 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 12, 980 770 12, 209 $1, 562 73, 874 23, 909 49, 965 2021 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 13, 252 787 12, 466 $1, 530 87, 126 24, 696 62, 431 2022 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 13, 530 803 12, 727 $1, 499 100, 657 25, 499 75, 158 2023 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 13, 815 820 12, 995 $1, 468 114, 471 26, 319 88, 153 2024 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 105 837 13, 268 $1, 438 128, 576 27, 156 101, 420 2025 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 401 855 13, 546 $1, 408 142, 977 28, 011 114, 966 2026 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 703 873 13, 831 $1, 379 157, 680 28, 883 128, 797 2027 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 012 891 14, 121 $1, 351 172, 692 29, 774 142, 918 2028 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 327 910 14, 418 $1, 323 188, 020 30, 684 157, 336 2029 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 649 929 14, 720 $1, 296 203, 669 31, 613 172, 056 2030 203, 669 31, 613 172, 056 2031 203, 669 31, 613 172, 056 2032 203, 669 31, 613 172, 056 2033 203, 669 31, 613 172, 056 2034 203, 669 31, 613 172, 056 2035 192, 005 23, 879 168, 127 2036 180, 097 17, 260 162, 837 2037 167, 938 14, 417 153, 521 2038 155, 487 11, 476 144, 010 2039 142, 774 8, 474 134, 300 2040 129, 795 7, 704 122, 091 2041 116, 543 6, 917 109, 625 2042 103, 012 6, 114 96, 898 2043 89, 197 5, 294 83, 903 2044 75, 093 4, 457 70, 636 2045 60, 692 3, 602 57, 090 2046 45, 989 2, 730 43, 259 20473 30, 977 1, 839 29, 138 2048 3 15, 649 929 14, 720

$286, 131, 014 2, 422, 490 $118

6 In orde r to n ot ove rstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are reduced tod iscount room he ate rsand ce ntral h ea te rsal re ad y me et in g the Ste p 2 l im it (i.e., 26%ofw ood stoves, 70%ofp ellet stoves and 18%o f hydroni c h ea te rs are e sti mate d to al re ady me et the Step 2 l imit ). **Tabl e**  **A-8**

**. Cost Eff** **ec ti**  **ve ne**  **ss (CE** **) ba** **se d on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2. 5** **e mi**  **ssions from Centr** **al He**  **ate rs** **( Force**  **d Ai r Furnace**  **s and Hydroni c He**  **ati ng Syste**  **ms) and Room**  **He ate**  **rs (**  **Wood Stoves, Pell et** **Stove s, and Single Burn Rate** **Stove s)** 
CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20-ye ar emitting lifespa n (p ert on) Em issi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve p er y ea r

Na ti onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- yea r emitting lifespa n

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the cost to manuf acture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs to bri ng the se he ate rsto marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 Na ti onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period ofR&D costs at a 7% i nterest rate ( during 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porting & re cordke ep in g costs (ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r mo del life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10-yea r mode l de si gn lifespa n use d in thi s anal ysis.

2Ex ce pt for adjustments in y ea rs2012 an d 2018 b ased on an i ndustry proje ct io ns (NE RA) , estimated an nual e mi ssions are b ase d on a forecaste d re ve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 1%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for th e purposes ofa s ensitivity an al ysis.

3The se he ate rshave i n-home emitting lifespa ns ofatl ea st 20 y ea rs; thus mode ls shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048.
4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard i n 2020 for al l appl ia nces, except force d-a irf urnace s h ave work practi ce /operational standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r smal l furnace s in 2016, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mission lim its for al l furnace s in 2020.

# A

- 9 Baseli ne P M 2. 5 

### Emi ssi ons 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions 2 

### (tons) Emi ssion

Reduction (tons) 6 

### CEb ased on

nati onwide average annual co st (perto n) Baseli ne P M 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6


### 2015 4 

### $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 347 706 641 $3, 827 1, 347 706 641 2016 $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 381 723 657 $3, 734 2, 728 1, 429 1, 299 2017 $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 415 741 674 $3, 643 4, 143 2, 170 1, 973 2018 $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 475 784 691 $3, 554 5, 618 2, 955 2, 663 2019 $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 512 804 708 $3, 467 7, 130 3, 758 3, 371 2020 4 

### $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 550 420 1, 130 $2, 173 8, 679 4, 178 4, 501 2021 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 588 430 1, 158 $2, 120 10, 268 4, 609 5, 659 2022 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 628 441 1, 187 $2, 068 11, 896 5, 050 6, 846 2023 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 669 452 1, 216 $2, 018 13, 564 5, 502 8, 062 2024 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 710 464 1, 247 $1, 969 15, 275 5, 966 9, 309 2025 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 753 475 1, 278 $1, 921 17, 028 6, 441 10, 587 2026 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 797 487 1, 310 $1, 874 18, 825 6, 928 11, 897 2027 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 842 499 1, 343 $1, 828 20, 667 7, 427 13, 240 2028 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 888 512 1, 376 $1, 783 22, 554 7, 938 14, 616 2029 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 935 524 1, 411 $1, 740 24, 490 8, 463 16, 027 2030 24, 490 8, 463 16, 027 2031 24, 490 8, 463 16, 027 2032 24, 490 8, 463 16, 027 2033 24, 490 8, 463 16, 027 2034 24, 490 8, 463 16, 027 2035 23, 143 7, 757 15, 385 2036 21, 762 7, 034 14, 728 2037 20, 346 6, 292 14, 054 2038 18, 872 5, 508 13, 363 2039 17, 360 4, 704 12, 655 2040 15, 810 4, 285 11, 526 2041 14, 222 3, 854 10, 368 2042 12, 594 3, 413 9, 181 2043 10, 925 2, 961 7, 965 2044 9, 215 2, 497 6, 718 2045 7, 462 2, 022 5, 440 2046 5, 665 1, 535 4, 130 2047 3, 823 1, 036 2, 787 2048 1, 935 524 1, 411

$36, 819, 222 225, 872 $163 **Tab le**  **A- 9.** **C ost Ef** **fec ti**  **ve ness**  **(C E) based on annual and cumulati**  **ve P**  **M 2.**  **5**

### e **mi ssi**  **ons from Room H ea** **ters (W ood Stoves, Pe**  **llet S** **tove s,**  **and Si ngle**  **Bu rn** **Rate Stove**  **s)**

Na ti onwi de cumul ati ve cost 5

5

### The nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pres ents the cost to manufactu re rs re sulting from the R&D re -desig n to me et the NSPS and the N SPS-caused ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re cordke eping costs to bri ng the se stove s to mark et from 2015 t hrough 2029. Ye ar 3 

### Na tionwi de

Annual Cost 1 

### Na tionwide

Average Annual C ost

1

### Esti mate d nati onwi de annual costs are i n 2013 $ an d are b ase d on a 6-ye ar amorti zati on pe ri od ofR&D co sts at a 7% interest rate ( durin g 2015- 2020) , pl us annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke ep ingco sts (ongoi ng through 2029, re pres ent in g a 10 yea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10-yea r model de sign lifesp an use d i n thi s anal ysis.
2

### Ex ce pt for

an adjustment in yea r 2018 bas ed o n an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA), estima ted annual e mi ssi ons are base d on a forecasted re ve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for

s hipm en ts) of2. 5%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for the purposes of a se nsi ti vity anal ysis.

4

### Esti mate d e missions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s effecti ve in 2015 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2020. I n orde r to not overesti mate e missi on re ducti ons re sulting from the ru le, for

w oodstoves and pelletstove s, esti mate s assume that most model s al re ady me et the Ste p 1 l imitand that manufacturers will ce rti fy and se ll existing model s me eting Step 1 standard f ro m 2015 t hrough 2019. Th erefore no emissi on re ducti ons are e stimated to re sul t f ro m woodstove s and pe lletstoves until Ste p 2 i n 2020.

6 

### In order to not ove rstate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em issions are re duce d to di scount room he ate rs al re ady mee ting the Step 2 l im it( i.e., 26%o f wood stove s and 70%ofpe lletstoves are e stimate d to al re ady me et the Ste p 2 l imit ). CE b ased on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- ye ar emitti ng l ifespan (perto n)

3

### The se heate rsh ave i n- home em itting lifesp ans ofat l ea st 20 y ears; thus room heate rss hipped in 2029 w ill be em itting through 2048. Cumulative Emi ssion Reduction over 20- ye ar
em itting lifespa n Emi ssi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve pe r y ea r Annual Snapshots

# A

- 10 Base line PM 2. 5 Em issions 2 (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Emissi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE based on

nati onwide
average
an nual co st (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Em issions (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 391 391 0 N/A 391 391 0 2016 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 401 401 0 N/A 791 791 0 2017 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 411 411 0 N/A 1, 202 1, 202 0 2018 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 445 445 0 N/A 1, 647 1, 647 0 2019 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 456 456 0 N/A 2, 103 2, 103 0 2020 4 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 468 262 206 $5, 874 2, 571 2, 365 206 2021 $0 $1, 209, 971 479 268 211 $5, 731 3, 050 2, 633 417 2022 $0 $1, 209, 971 491 275 216 $5, 591 3, 541 2, 908 634 2023 $0 $1, 209, 971 503 282 222 $5, 455 4, 045 3, 189 855 2024 $0 $1, 209, 971 516 289 227 $5, 322 4, 561 3, 478 1, 083 2025 $0 $1, 209, 971 529 296 233 $5, 192 5, 090 3, 774 1, 316 2026 $0 $1, 209, 971 542 303 239 $5, 065 5, 632 4, 077 1, 555 2027 $0 $1, 209, 971 556 311 245 $4, 942 6, 188 4, 388 1, 799 2028 $0 $1, 209, 971 570 319 251 $4, 821 6, 757 4, 707 2, 050 2029 $0 $1, 209, 971 584 327 257 $4, 704 7, 341 5, 033 2, 308 2030 7, 341 5, 033 2, 308 2031 7, 341 5, 033 2, 308 2032 7, 341 5, 033 2, 308 2033 7, 341 5, 033 2, 308 2034 7, 341 5, 033 2, 308 2035 6, 950 4, 643 2, 308 2036 6, 550 4, 242 2, 308 2037 6, 139 3, 832 2, 308 2038 5, 694 3, 387 2, 308 2039 5, 238 2, 930 2, 308 2040 4, 771 2, 669 2, 102 2041 4, 291 2, 401 1, 891 2042 3, 800 2, 126 1, 674 2043 3, 297 1, 844 1, 452 2044 2, 781 1, 556 1, 225 2045 2, 252 1, 260 992 2046 1, 709 956 753 2047 1, 154 645 508 2048 584 327 257

$18, 149, 566 36, 238 $501

3Th ese heaters have in-home em itting lifespa ns of at l ea st 20 y ears; thus wood stove s shipped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048.
4Es ti mate d em issions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Ste p 2standard i n 2020. For woodstoves, estim ate s assume t hat most models al re ady me et the Ste p 1 l im itand that manuf acture rsw ill ce rti fyand sell existi ng model s me eting Ste p 1 standard duri ng 2015 th rough 2019. The re fore no em is sion re ducti ons are
esti mate d unti l Ste p 2i n 2020.

5Th e nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre se nts the co st to manuf acture rsresulting from the R&D re -desig n to me etthe N SPS assumi ng a 10- yea r mode l life. Cumul ati ve Emi ssi on Reducti on over

20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespan Nationwide cu mul at ive cost 5

6 In orde r to not ove rs tate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em is si ons are re duced to di scount wood stoves al re ady me et ing the Ste p 2 l im it( i.e., 26%of wood stoves al re ady me etthe Ste p 2l im it ). **Tabl e**  **A- 10.** **Cost Effe cti**  **veness (CE) ba sed**  **on annual and cumul**  **ati ve PM**  **2. 5** **e mi**  **ssions from Wood Stove s** 

Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cu mul ati ve per y ea r CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em is sion re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng lifespa n (per ton)

1Es ti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period of R&D cos ts at a 7% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020 )

. Ye ars2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- yea r model design lifespa n use d i n this an al ysis.
2Ex ce pt for an adj ustment in yea r 2018 b as ed on an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA), estimated annual e mi ssions are b ase d on a fore cas te d re ve nue growth rate ( as a s urrogate for shi pments) of 2. 5%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029,for the purpose s ofa se nsi tivity anal ysis.

# A

- 11 Base lin e PM2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (t ons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (t ons) Em is si on

Re ducti on (t ons) 6 CEb as ed on

nati onwide
av erage annual cos t (perton) Base lin e PM2. 5

Em is si ons (t ons) NSPS PM2. 5

Em is sio ns (t ons) Em is si on

Re ducti on (t ons) 6
2015 4 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 58 58 0 N/A 58 58 0 2016 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 59 59 0 N/A 117 117 0 2017 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 61 61 0 N/A 177 177 0 2018 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 62 62 0 N/A 239 239 0 2019 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 64 64 0 N/A 303 303 0 2020 4 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 65 29 36 $23, 667 368 332 36 2021 $412, 963 $857, 473 67 30 37 $23, 090 435 362 73 2022 $412, 963 $857, 473 69 30 38 $22, 526 504 392 111 2023 $412, 963 $857, 473 70 31 39 $21, 977 574 423 150 2024 $412, 963 $857, 473 72 32 40 $21, 441 646 455 190 2025 $412, 963 $857, 473 74 33 41 $20, 918 720 488 231 2026 $412, 963 $857, 473 76 34 42 $20, 408 795 522 273 2027 $412, 963 $857, 473 78 34 43 $19, 910 873 556 317 2028 $412, 963 $857, 473 79 35 44 $19, 425 952 592 361 2029 $412, 963 $857, 473 81 36 45 $18, 951 1, 034 628 406 2030 1, 034 628 406 2031 1, 034 628 406 2032 1, 034 628 406 2033 1, 034 628 406 2034 1, 034 628 406 2035 976 570 406 2036 917 511 406 2037 856 450 406 2038 794 388 406 2039 731 325 406 2040 665 296 370 2041 599 266 333 2042 530 236 294 2043 460 204 255 2044 388 172 215 2045 314 140 174 2046 238 106 132 2047 161 72 89 2048 81 36 45

$12, 862, 099 6, 374 $2, 018

4Esti mated e mi ssions assume Ste p 1standard be come s e ffecti ve i n 2015 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2020. F or pelletstove s, est im ate s assume t hat most mode lsal re ady me et the Step 1l im itand that manufacturers wi ll ce rtify and sell existing models me eting Ste p 1 s tandard during 2015 t hrough 2019. Th erefore no e mi ssion re ducti ons are estimated unti l Ste p 2 i n 2020.
5Th e nationwide cumul at ive cost repre se nts the cos t to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re -design to me etthe N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingco sts to bri ng these s tove s to marke t f rom 2015 th rough 2029. CE base d on total
co st & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng li fesp an (perton)

Nati onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- ye ar s tove lifes pan

6 In orde r to not ove rstate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em is si ons are re duced to discount pe llets tove s al re ady me et ingthe Step 2l im it (i .e., 70%of pellet stove s al re ady mee t the Ste p 2 l im it ). **Table A-**  **11. Cost Effe**  **cti veness (CE)**  **base d on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2.5 e**  **mi ssions**  **fr om Pe**  **llet S** **tove s** 

1Esti mated nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6-yea r amorti zati on period of R&D cos ts at a 7% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re presenting a 10 y ear mode l life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 a re p ast the 10-year mode l design lifesp an use d inthi s analysi s.

2Esti mated annual e mi ssions areb as ed on a fore caste d re ven ue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shipments) of 2. 5%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for the p urposes of a se nsitivity
an alysis.

3Th es e heate rsh ave i n-home em itti ng lifes pans of at l ea st 20 y ears; thus pe llets tove s shi ppe d in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual C ost Annual S na pshots Em is si on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve pe r y ear

# A

- 12 Base line PM2. 5 Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emissi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) CEb ase d on

nati onwi de average annual co st (per ton) Base line PM2.5

Emi ssi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emissi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Reducti on (tons) 2015 4 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 899 257 641 $604 899 257 641 2016 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 921 264 657 $589 1, 820 521 1, 299 2017 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 944 270 674 $575 2, 764 791 1, 973 2018 $680, 112 $387, 171 968 277 691 $561 3, 732 1, 068 2, 663 2019 $680, 112 $387, 171 992 284 708 $547 4, 724 1, 352 3, 371 2020 4 $680, 112 $387, 171 1, 017 129 887 $436 5, 740 1, 482 4, 259 2021 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 042 133 910 $426 6, 783 1, 614 5, 168 2022 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 068 136 932 $415 7, 851 1, 750 6, 101 2023 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 095 139 956 $405 8, 946 1, 889 7, 056 2024 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 122 143 980 $395 10, 068 2, 032 8, 036 2025 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 150 146 1, 004 $386 11, 218 2, 179 9, 040 2026 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 179 150 1, 029 $376 12, 398 2, 329 10, 069 2027 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 209 154 1, 055 $367 13, 606 2, 482 11, 124 2028 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 239 158 1, 081 $358 14, 845 2, 640 12, 205 2029 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 270 162 1, 108 $349 16, 115 2, 802 13, 313 2030 16, 115 2, 802 13, 313 2031 16, 115 2, 802 13, 313 2032 16, 115 2, 802 13, 313 2033 16, 115 2, 802 13, 313 2034 16, 115 2, 802 13, 313 2035 15, 216 2, 544 12, 672 2036 14, 295 2, 281 12, 014 2037 13, 351 2, 010 11, 341 2038 12, 383 1, 733 10, 650 2039 11, 391 1, 449 9, 942 2040 10, 374 1, 320 9, 054 2041 9, 332 1, 187 8, 145 2042 8, 264 1, 051 7, 213 2043 7, 169 912 6, 257 2044 6, 047 769 5, 277 2045 4, 896 623 4, 273 2046 3, 717 473 3, 244 2047 2, 509 319 2, 189 2048 1, 270 162 1, 108

$5, 807, 558 183, 259 $32

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step2 standard in 2020.
5The n ati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre sents the cost to manufacture rs re sulting from the R&D re -desig n to me et the N SPS and the N SPS-cau sed ce rti ficati on and re porting &
re cordke eping costs to bri ng these stoves to marke t f rom 2015 th ro ugh 2029. CEb ase d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re duction
ove r 20- year
em itti ng l ifespan (pert on)

Na ti onwi de cumulati ve cost 5 Cumulati ve Emi ssi on Re ducti on over 20- year emitt in g lifespa n **Tabl e**  **A- 12.** **Cost Effe ctive**  **ne ss (CE)**  **ba sed**  **on an**  **nual and cumulati ve** **PM 2.5** **e mi**  **ssions fr om Si**  **ngle Bu**  **rn Rate S** **to ve**  **s**

1Esti mate d nati onwi de annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are b ased on a 6-yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7%i ntere st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , pl us annual certifi cati on and re porti ng & re co rd keeping co sts (o ngoi ng through 2029, re pres enting a 10 y ea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10- ye ar mode l de sign lifespa n used in th is anal ysi s.
2Esti mate d annual e mi ssi ons are base d on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 5% f rom 2015 th rough 2029, for the p urposes of a se nsi tivity anal ysi s.
3The se hea ters have i n-home em itti ng l ifespa ns ofat l ea st 20 years; thus single b urn rate stove s shipped in 2029 w ill be e mi tting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Na tionwide

Annual C ost 1 Na tionwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssi on Re ducti on, cu mul ati ve pery ea r

# A

- 13 Base line PM 2. 5 Em is sions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
average annual cost (pe r to n) Base lin e PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $45, 761, 061 $16, 620, 786 10, 518 7, 178 3, 339 $4, 977 10, 518 7, 178 3, 339 2016 4 $45, 761, 061 $16, 620, 786 10, 781 6, 049 4, 731 $3, 513 21, 298 13, 228 8, 071 2017 4 $37, 432, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 050 2, 178 8, 872 $1, 873 32, 348 15, 406 16, 943 2018 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 326 2, 232 9, 094 $1, 828 43, 675 17, 638 26, 037 2019 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 610 2, 288 9, 322 $1, 783 55, 284 19, 926 35, 359 2020 4 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 900 372 11, 528 $1, 442 67, 184 20, 298 46, 887 2021 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 197 381 11, 816 $1, 407 79, 382 20, 679 58, 703 2022 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 502 391 12, 112 $1, 372 91, 884 21, 070 70, 814 2023 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 815 400 12, 414 $1, 339 104, 699 21, 470 83, 229 2024 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 135 410 12, 725 $1, 306 117, 834 21, 881 95, 953 2025 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 464 421 13, 043 $1, 274 131, 297 22, 301 108, 996 2026 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 800 431 13, 369 $1, 243 145, 097 22, 733 122, 365 2027 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 14, 145 442 13, 703 $1, 213 159, 243 23, 175 136, 068 2028 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 14, 499 453 14, 046 $1, 183 173, 741 23, 628 150, 114 2029 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 14, 861 464 14, 397 $1, 154 188, 603 24, 092 164, 510 2030 188, 603 24, 092 164, 510 2031 188, 603 24, 092 164, 510 2032 188, 603 24, 092 164, 510 2033 188, 603 24, 092 164, 510 2034 188, 603 24, 092 164, 510 2035 178, 085 16, 914 161, 171 2036 167, 304 10, 864 156, 440 2037 156, 254 8, 686 147, 568 2038 144, 928 6, 454 138, 473 2039 133, 318 4, 166 129, 152 2040 121, 418 3, 794 117, 624 2041 109, 221 3, 413 105, 808 2042 96, 719 3, 022 93, 696 2043 83, 904 2, 622 81, 282 2044 70, 769 2, 212 68, 557 2045 57, 305 1, 791 55, 514 2046 43, 505 1, 360 42, 146 2047 3 29, 360 917 28, 442 2048 3 14, 861 464 14, 397

$249, 311, 792 2, 327, 333 $107 Na ti onwide Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Em issi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve p er y ea r

6 In orde r to n ot ove rstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are reduced tod iscount ce ntral h ea te rsal re ady me et in g the Ste p 2 l imit( i.e., 18%of hydroni c h ea te rs are e sti mate d to al re ady me et the Step 2 l imit ). Na ti onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- yea r emitting lifespa n **Tabl e**  **A- 13.** **Cost Ef fec** **ti ve**  **ne ss (CE)**  **base d on**  **an nual**  **an d cumul**  **ati ve** **PM 2.5** **e mi**  **ssions from Central He ate**  **rs (**  **For ce**  **d Air Furnace s and Hydroni**  **c He ati**  **ng Syste ms)** 

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the cost to manuf acture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs to bri ng the se he ate rsto marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. 1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period ofR&D costs at a 7% i nterest rate ( during 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porting & re cordke ep in g costs (ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r mo del life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10-yea r mode l de si gn lifespa n use d in thi s anal ysis.

2Ex ce pt for an adjustme nt i n ye ar 2012 b ase d on an in dustry projecti on (NE RA ), estimated annual e missions are base d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 5%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for th e purposes ofa s ensitivity an al ysis.

3The se he ate rshave i n-home emitting lifespa ns ofatl ea st 20 y ea rs; thus mode ls shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048.
4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard i n 2020 for al l appl ia nces, except force d-a irf urnace s h ave work practi ce /operational standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r smal l furnace s in 2016, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mission lim its for al l furnace s in 2020. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20-ye ar emitting lifespa n (p ert on) Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1

# A

- 14 Base line PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) CE base d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual co st (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) 2015 4 $20, 905, 663 $6, 299, 286 6, 807 6, 807 0 N/A 6, 807 6, 807 0 2016 4 $20, 905, 663 $6, 299, 286 6, 977 5, 669 1, 308 $4, 815 13, 785 12, 476 1, 308 2017 4 $12, 576, 770 $6, 299, 286 7, 152 1, 788 5, 364 $1, 174 20, 937 14, 264 6, 672 2018 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 331 1, 833 5, 498 $1, 146 28, 267 16, 097 12, 170 2019 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 514 1, 878 5, 635 $1, 118 35, 781 17, 976 17, 806 2020 4 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 702 241 7, 461 $844 43, 483 18, 216 25, 267 2021 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 7, 894 247 7, 648 $824 51, 377 18, 463 32, 914 2022 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 092 253 7, 839 $804 59, 469 18, 716 40, 753 2023 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 294 259 8, 035 $784 67, 763 18, 975 48, 788 2024 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 501 266 8, 236 $765 76, 264 19, 241 57, 024 2025 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 714 272 8, 442 $746 84, 978 19, 513 65, 465 2026 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 932 279 8, 653 $728 93, 910 19, 792 74, 118 2027 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 9, 155 286 8, 869 $710 103, 065 20, 078 82, 987 2028 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 9, 384 293 9, 091 $693 112, 449 20, 371 92, 077 2029 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 9, 618 301 9, 318 $676 122, 067 20, 672 101, 395 2030 122, 067 20, 672 101, 395 2031 122, 067 20, 672 101, 395 2032 122, 067 20, 672 101, 395 2033 122, 067 20, 672 101, 395 2034 122, 067 20, 672 101, 395 2035 115, 260 13, 865 101, 395 2036 108, 283 8, 196 100, 087 2037 101, 131 6, 408 94, 723 2038 93, 800 4, 575 89, 225 2039 86, 286 2, 696 83, 590 2040 78, 584 2, 456 76, 129 2041 70, 690 2, 209 68, 481 2042 62, 598 1, 956 60, 642 2043 54, 304 1, 697 52, 607 2044 45, 803 1, 431 44, 372 2045 37, 089 1, 159 35, 930 2046 28, 157 880 27, 277 2047 19, 002 594 18, 409 2048 9, 618 301 9, 318

$94, 489, 287 1, 470, 557 $64 **Tab le**  **A-1 4.** **Cost Eff ec** **tiveness (CE) base d**  **on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2. 5** **e mi**  **ssions from Force d**  **Air F**  **urnace s** 

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7%i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r model life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- yea r mode l desig n lifespa n use d i n thi s anal ysis.

2Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are b as ed on a fo re caste d re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogate f or sh ipments) of 2. 5%f rom 2015 through 2029, for the p urpose s of a
se nsiti vi ty anal ysis.

3The se h ea ters have in-home em itti ng l ifes pans of atl ea st 20 ye ars; thus force d-air fu rnace s shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048. Ye ar 3 Na ti onwide

Annual Cost 1 Na ti onwide

Ave rage Annual Cost Annua l Snapshots Emi ssion Re duction, cu mulative per y ea r

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 s tandard be come s effecti ve in 2015 an d Ste p 2 s tandard i n 2020 f or al l appl ia nce s, except force d-a ir f urnace s have wor k practi ce /operati onal standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its for smal l furna ce s in 2016, Ste p 1e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mi ssion lim its for al l furna ce s in 2020. 5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre se nts the co st to manufacture rs re sulti ng f rom the R&D re -d es ig n to me et the N SPS and the N SPS- cause d ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rd ke ep ing costs to bri ng these he at ers to marke t f rom 2014 t hrough 2029. CE base d on total
co st & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- ye ar
em itting lifespa n (per ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul at ive Emi ssi on Re ducti on over 20- yea r
em itting lifespa n

# A

- 15 Base line PM2. 5 Emissi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CEbase d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual co st (per ton) Base line PM2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 710 371 3, 339 $3, 091 3, 710 371 3, 339 2016 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 803 380 3, 423 $3, 015 7, 514 751 6, 762 2017 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 898 390 3, 508 $2, 942 11, 412 1, 141 10, 271 2018 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 996 400 3, 596 $2, 870 15, 408 1, 541 13, 867 2019 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 096 410 3, 686 $2, 800 19, 503 1, 950 17, 553 2020 4 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 198 131 4, 067 $2, 538 23, 701 2, 082 21, 620 2021 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 303 134 4, 168 $2, 476 28, 004 2, 216 25, 788 2022 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 411 138 4, 273 $2, 416 32, 415 2, 354 30, 061 2023 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 521 141 4, 380 $2, 357 36, 936 2, 495 34, 440 2024 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 634 145 4, 489 $2, 299 41, 569 2, 640 38, 929 2025 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 750 148 4, 601 $2, 243 46, 319 2, 788 43, 531 2026 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 868 152 4, 716 $2, 188 51, 187 2, 940 48, 247 2027 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 990 156 4, 834 $2, 135 56, 178 3, 096 53, 081 2028 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 5, 115 160 4, 955 $2, 083 61, 292 3, 256 58, 036 2029 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 5, 243 164 5, 079 $2, 032 66, 535 3, 420 63, 115 2030 66, 535 3, 420 63, 115 2031 66, 535 3, 420 63, 115 2032 66, 535 3, 420 63, 115 2033 66, 535 3, 420 63, 115 2034 66, 535 3, 420 63, 115 2035 62, 825 3, 049 59, 776 2036 59, 022 2, 669 56, 353 2037 55, 123 2, 279 52, 844 2038 51, 128 1, 879 49, 248 2039 47, 032 1, 470 45, 562 2040 42, 834 1, 339 41, 495 2041 38, 531 1, 204 37, 327 2042 34, 120 1, 066 33, 054 2043 29, 600 925 28, 675 2044 24, 966 780 24, 186 2045 20, 216 632 19, 584 2046 15, 348 480 14, 868 2047 3 10, 358 324 10, 034 2048 3 5, 243 164 5, 079

$154, 822, 505 856, 776 $181

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 standard be co me s effective in 2015 an d Ste p 2s tandard in 2020.

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the co st to manuf acture rs re sultingf rom the R&D re -desig n to me etthe N SPS and the N SPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingcosts to bri ng the se heaters to marke t f rom 2014 th rough 2029. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespa n (per ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re ducti on ove r 20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespa n

6 In orde r to not overstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are re duce d to discount hydroni c h ea te rs al re ady me et ing the Ste p 2 l im it( i.e., 18%of hydroni c h ea te rsare e sti mate d to al re ady me etthe Ste p 2 l im it ). **Tabl e**  **A- 15.** **Cost Effec** **ti ve**  **ne ss (CE) ba** **sed on**  **annual and cumul**  **ati ve** **PM 2.**  **5 e**  **mi ssions from**  **Hydronic He ati**  **ng Syste**  **ms**

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7% interestrate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingcosts ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se ntinga 10 y ea r model life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are past the 10- ye ar mode l design lifes pan use d i n thi s anal ysis.

2Ex ce pt for an adjustment in yea r 2012 b as ed on an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA ), est im ate d annual e mi ssions are base d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogate for shi pments) of 2. 5%f rom 2015 through 2029, for the purpose s of a s ensitivity an al ysis.

3These he at ers have i n-home em ittingl ifespa ns of at lea st 20 y ea rs; thus hydroni c h ea te rs shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048. Ye ar Na ti onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul at ive per y ea r

# A

- 16 Base line PM 2. 5 Em is sions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
average annual cost (pe r to n) Base lin e PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $51, 327, 699 $19, 075, 401 11, 865 7, 884 3, 981 $4, 792 11, 865 7, 884 3, 981 2016 4 $51, 327, 699 $19, 075, 401 12, 161 6, 773 5, 389 $3, 540 24, 026 14, 657 9, 369 2017 4 $42, 998, 805 $19, 075, 401 12, 465 2, 919 9, 546 $1, 998 36, 492 17, 576 18, 916 2018 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 12, 801 3, 016 9, 785 $1, 949 49, 293 20, 592 28, 700 2019 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 13, 121 3, 092 10, 030 $1, 902 62, 414 23, 684 38, 730 2020 4 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 13, 449 792 12, 658 $1, 507 75, 864 24, 476 51, 388 2021 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 13, 786 812 12, 974 $1, 470 89, 649 25, 288 64, 362 2022 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 130 832 13, 298 $1, 434 103, 779 26, 119 77, 660 2023 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 483 853 13, 631 $1, 399 118, 263 26, 972 91, 291 2024 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 846 874 13, 972 $1, 365 133, 108 27, 846 105, 262 2025 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 217 896 14, 321 $1, 332 148, 325 28, 742 119, 583 2026 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 597 918 14, 679 $1, 300 163, 922 29, 660 134, 262 2027 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 987 941 15, 046 $1, 268 179, 909 30, 601 149, 308 2028 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 16, 387 965 15, 422 $1, 237 196, 296 31, 566 164, 730 2029 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 16, 796 989 15, 808 $1, 207 213, 092 32, 555 180, 537 2030 213, 092 32, 555 180, 537 2031 213, 092 32, 555 180, 537 2032 213, 092 32, 555 180, 537 2033 213, 092 32, 555 180, 537 2034 213, 092 32, 555 180, 537 2035 201, 227 24, 671 176, 556 2036 189, 066 17, 898 171, 168 2037 176, 600 14, 979 161, 622 2038 163, 799 11, 962 151, 837 2039 150, 678 8, 871 141, 807 2040 137, 229 8, 079 129, 150 2041 123, 443 7, 267 116, 176 2042 109, 313 6, 435 102, 877 2043 94, 829 5, 583 89, 247 2044 79, 984 4, 709 75, 275 2045 64, 767 3, 813 60, 954 2046 49, 170 2, 895 46, 275 20473 33, 183 1, 954 31, 230 2048 3 16, 796 989 15, 808

$286, 131, 014 2, 553, 205 $112

6 In orde r to n ot ove rstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are reduced tod iscount room he ate rsand ce ntral h ea te rsal re ad y me et in g the Ste p 2 l im it (i.e., 26%ofw ood stoves, 70%ofp ellet stoves and 18%o f hydroni c h ea te rs are e sti mate d to al re ady me et the Step 2 l imit ). **Tabl e**  **A-1 6.** **C ost Eff** **ec ti**  **ve ness (CE) based on annual and cumulative** **PM 2.**  **5 e**  **mi ssions from Central H** **ea te**  **rs (Forc** **ed Ai**  **r Furnace s and Hydroni**  **c He ati**  **ng Syste ms)**  **an d Room**  **He ate**  **rs (**  **Wo od Stove**  **s, P**  **ellet Stove**  **s, and Single Burn Rate**  **Stove s)** 
CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20-ye ar emitting lifespa n (p ert on) Em issi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve p er y ea r

Na ti onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- yea r emitting lifespa n

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the cost to manuf acture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs to bri ng the se he ate rsto marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 Na ti onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period ofR&D costs at a 7% i nterest rate ( during 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porting & re cordke ep in g costs (ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r mo del life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10-yea r mode l de si gn lifespa n use d in thi s anal ysis.

2Ex ce pt for adjustments in y ea rs2012 an d 2018 b ased on an i ndustry proje ct io ns (NE RA) , estimated an nual e mi ssions are b ase d on a forecaste d re ve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 2. 5%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for th e purposes ofa s ensitivity an al ysis.

3The se he ate rshave i n-home emitting lifespa ns ofatl ea st 20 y ea rs; thus mode ls shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048.
4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard i n 2020 for al l appl ia nces, except force d-a irf urnace s h ave work practi ce /operational standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r smal l furnace s in 2016, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mission lim its for al l furnace s in 2020.

# A

- 17 Baseli ne P M 2. 5 

### Emi ssi ons 2 

### (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions 2 

### (tons) Emi ssion

Reduction (tons) 6 

### CEb ased on

nati onwide average annual co st (perto n) Baseli ne P M 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5



### Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6


### 2015 4 

### $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 380 723 657 $3, 735 1, 380 723 657 2016 $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 422 745 677 $3, 626 2, 802 1, 468 1, 334 2017 $5, 566, 638 $2, 454, 615 1, 464 767 697 $3, 521 4, 266 2, 235 2, 031 2018 $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 516 798 718 $3, 418 5, 782 3, 033 2, 749 2019 $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 561 822 740 $3, 318 7, 343 3, 854 3, 489 2020 4 

### $5, 269, 325 $2, 454, 615 1, 608 430 1, 178 $2, 084 8, 951 4, 284 4, 667 2021 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 656 443 1, 213 $2, 024 10, 608 4, 728 5, 880 2022 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 706 457 1, 249 $1, 965 12, 314 5, 184 7, 129 2023 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 757 470 1, 287 $1, 907 14, 071 5, 655 8, 416 2024 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 810 484 1, 325 $1, 852 15, 881 6, 139 9, 742 2025 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 864 499 1, 365 $1, 798 17, 745 6, 638 11, 107 2026 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 920 514 1, 406 $1, 746 19, 665 7, 152 12, 513 2027 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 1, 978 529 1, 448 $1, 695 21, 643 7, 681 13, 961 2028 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 2, 037 545 1, 492 $1, 645 23, 680 8, 226 15, 453 2029 $479, 037 $2, 454, 615 2, 098 562 1, 537 $1, 597 25, 778 8, 788 16, 990 2030 25, 778 8, 788 16, 990 2031 25, 778 8, 788 16, 990 2032 25, 778 8, 788 16, 990 2033 25, 778 8, 788 16, 990 2034 25, 778 8, 788 16, 990 2035 24, 397 8, 065 16, 333 2036 22, 976 7, 320 15, 656 2037 21, 511 6, 553 14, 959 2038 19, 996 5, 755 14, 240 2039 18, 434 4, 934 13, 501 2040 16, 826 4, 503 12, 323 2041 15, 170 4, 060 11, 110 2042 13, 464 3, 603 9, 861 2043 11, 707 3, 133 8, 574 2044 9, 897 2, 649 7, 248 2045 8, 033 2, 150 5, 883 2046 6, 113 1, 636 4, 477 2047 4, 135 1, 107 3, 028 2048 2, 098 562 1, 537

$36, 819, 222 240, 668 $153 **Tab le**  **A- 17.** **Cost Ef fec** **tive ne**  **ss ( CE** **) ba** **se d on annual and cumul**  **ati ve**  **PM 2.5** 

### e **missions from Room Heate rs** **( Wood Stove**  **s, Pe llet**  **Stove s, and Si**  **ngl e**  **Burn Rate Stove**  **s)**

Na ti onwi de cumul ati ve cost 5

5

### The nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pres ents the cost to manufactu re rs re sulting from the R&D re -desig n to me et the NSPS and the N SPS-caused ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re cordke eping costs to bri ng the se stove s to mark et from 2015 t hrough 2029. Ye ar 3 

### Na tionwi de

Annual Cost 1 

### Na tionwide

Average Annual C ost

1

### Esti mate d nati onwi de annual costs are i n 2013 $ an d are b ase d on a 6-ye ar amorti zati on pe ri od ofR&D co sts at a 7% interest rate ( durin g 2015- 2020) , pl us annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke ep ingco sts (ongoi ng through 2029, re pres ent in g a 10 yea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10-yea r model de sign lifesp an use d i n thi s anal ysis.
2

### Ex ce pt for

an adjustment in yea r 2018 bas ed o n an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA), estima ted annual e mi ssi ons are base d on a forecasted re ve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for

s hipm en ts) of3%f ro m 2015 th ro ugh 2029, for the purpose s ofa s ensitivity anal ysis.

4

### Esti mate d e missions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s effecti ve in 2015 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2020. I n orde r to not overesti mate e missi on re ducti ons re sulting from the ru le, for

w oodstoves and pelletstove s, esti mate s assume that most model s al re ady me et the Ste p 1 l imitand that manufacturers will ce rti fy and se ll existing model s me eting Step 1 standard f ro m 2015 t hrough 2019. Th erefore no emissi on re ducti ons are e stimated to re sul t f ro m woodstove s and pe lletstoves until Ste p 2 i n 2020.

6 

### In order to not ove rstate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em issions are re duce d to di scount room he ate rs al re ady mee ting the Step 2 l im it( i.e., 26%o f wood stove s and 70%ofpe lletstoves are e stimate d to al re ady me et the Ste p 2 l imit ). CE b ased on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- ye ar emitti ng l ifespan (perto n)

3

### The se heate rsh ave i n- home em itting lifesp ans ofat l ea st 20 y ears; thus room heate rss hipped in 2029 w ill be em itting through 2048. Cumulative Emi ssion Reduction over 20- ye ar
em itting lifespa n Emi ssi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve pe r y ea r Annual Snapshots

# A

- 18 Base line PM 2. 5 Em issions 2 (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Emissi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE based on

nati onwide
average
an nual co st (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Em issions (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Emi ssi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 400 400 0 N/A 400 400 0 2016 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 412 412 0 N/A 813 813 0 2017 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 425 425 0 N/A 1, 238 1, 238 0 2018 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 445 445 0 N/A 1, 683 1, 683 0 2019 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 458 458 0 N/A 2, 141 2, 141 0 2020 4 $3, 024, 928 $1, 209, 971 472 264 208 $5, 817 2, 613 2, 405 208 2021 $0 $1, 209, 971 486 272 214 $5, 648 3, 099 2, 677 422 2022 $0 $1, 209, 971 501 280 221 $5, 483 3, 600 2, 957 643 2023 $0 $1, 209, 971 516 289 227 $5, 324 4, 116 3, 246 870 2024 $0 $1, 209, 971 531 297 234 $5, 169 4, 648 3, 543 1, 104 2025 $0 $1, 209, 971 547 306 241 $5, 018 5, 195 3, 849 1, 345 2026 $0 $1, 209, 971 564 315 248 $4, 872 5, 759 4, 165 1, 594 2027 $0 $1, 209, 971 581 325 256 $4, 730 6, 339 4, 490 1, 850 2028 $0 $1, 209, 971 598 335 263 $4, 592 6, 937 4, 824 2, 113 2029 $0 $1, 209, 971 616 345 271 $4, 459 7, 553 5, 169 2, 384 2030 7, 553 5, 169 2, 384 2031 7, 553 5, 169 2, 384 2032 7, 553 5, 169 2, 384 2033 7, 553 5, 169 2, 384 2034 7, 553 5, 169 2, 384 2035 7, 153 4, 768 2, 384 2036 6, 740 4, 356 2, 384 2037 6, 316 3, 931 2, 384 2038 5, 871 3, 486 2, 384 2039 5, 412 3, 028 2, 384 2040 4, 940 2, 764 2, 176 2041 4, 454 2, 492 1, 962 2042 3, 953 2, 211 1, 742 2043 3, 437 1, 923 1, 514 2044 2, 906 1, 626 1, 280 2045 2, 358 1, 319 1, 039 2046 1, 795 1, 004 791 2047 1, 214 679 535 2048 616 345 271

$18, 149, 566 37, 539 $483

3Th ese heaters have in-home em itting lifespa ns of at l ea st 20 y ears; thus wood stove s shipped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048.
4Es ti mate d em issions assume Ste p 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Ste p 2standard i n 2020. For woodstoves, estim ate s assume t hat most models al re ady me et the Ste p 1 l im itand that manuf acture rsw ill ce rti fyand sell existi ng model s me eting Ste p 1 standard duri ng 2015 th rough 2019. The re fore no em is sion re ducti ons are
esti mate d unti l Ste p 2i n 2020.

5Th e nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre se nts the co st to manuf acture rsresulting from the R&D re -desig n to me etthe N SPS assumi ng a 10- yea r mode l life. Cumul ati ve Emi ssi on Reducti on over

20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespan Nationwide cu mul at ive cost 5

6 In orde r to not ove rs tate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em is si ons are re duced to di scount wood stoves al re ady me et ing the Ste p 2 l im it( i.e., 26%of wood stoves al re ady me etthe Ste p 2l im it ). **Tabl e**  **A- 18.** **Cost Effe cti**  **veness (CE) ba sed**  **on annual and cumul**  **ati ve PM**  **2. 5** **e mi**  **ssions from Wood Stove s** 

Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cu mul ati ve per y ea r CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em is sion re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng lifespa n (per ton)

1Es ti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period of R&D cos ts at a 7% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020 )

. Ye ars2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- yea r model design lifespa n use d i n this an al ysis.
2Ex ce pt for an adj ustment in yea r 2018 b as ed on an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA), estimated annual e mi ssions are b ase d on a fore cas te d re ve nue growth rate ( as a s urrogate for shi pments) of 3%f rom 2015 through 2029, for the p urpose s of a sensi ti vity anal ysis.

# A

- 19 Base lin e PM2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (t ons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (t ons) Em is si on

Re ducti on (t ons) 6 CEb as ed on

nati onwide
av erage annual cos t (perton) Base lin e PM2. 5

Em is si ons (t ons) NSPS PM2. 5

Em is sio ns (t ons) Em is si on

Re ducti on (t ons) 6
2015 4 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 59 59 0 N/A 59 59 0 2016 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 61 61 0 N/A 120 120 0 2017 $1, 484, 192 $857, 473 63 63 0 N/A 183 183 0 2018 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 65 65 0 N/A 247 247 0 2019 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 66 66 0 N/A 314 314 0 2020 4 $1, 564, 285 $857, 473 68 30 38 $22, 543 382 344 38 2021 $412, 963 $857, 473 71 31 39 $21, 886 453 375 77 2022 $412, 963 $857, 473 73 32 40 $21, 249 525 408 118 2023 $412, 963 $857, 473 75 33 42 $20, 630 600 441 159 2024 $412, 963 $857, 473 77 34 43 $20, 029 677 475 202 2025 $412, 963 $857, 473 79 35 44 $19, 446 756 510 246 2026 $412, 963 $857, 473 82 36 45 $18, 879 838 547 291 2027 $412, 963 $857, 473 84 37 47 $18, 329 922 584 338 2028 $412, 963 $857, 473 87 39 48 $17, 795 1, 009 623 386 2029 $412, 963 $857, 473 89 40 50 $17, 277 1, 098 662 436 2030 1, 098 662 436 2031 1, 098 662 436 2032 1, 098 662 436 2033 1, 098 662 436 2034 1, 098 662 436 2035 1, 039 603 436 2036 979 543 436 2037 916 480 436 2038 851 415 436 2039 785 349 436 2040 716 318 398 2041 646 287 359 2042 573 255 318 2043 498 222 277 2044 421 187 234 2045 342 152 190 2046 260 116 145 2047 176 78 98 2048 89 40 50

$12, 862, 099 6, 865 $1, 874

4Esti mated e mi ssions assume Ste p 1standard be come s e ffecti ve i n 2015 an d Ste p 2 standard i n 2020. F or pelletstove s, est im ate s assume t hat most mode lsal re ady me et the Step 1l im itand that manufacturers wi ll ce rtify and sell existing models me eting Ste p 1 s tandard during 2015 t hrough 2019. Th erefore no e mi ssion re ducti ons are estimated unti l Ste p 2 i n 2020.
5Th e nationwide cumul at ive cost repre se nts the cos t to manufacturers resulting from the R&D re -design to me etthe N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingco sts to bri ng these s tove s to marke t f rom 2015 th rough 2029. CE base d on total
co st & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng li fesp an (perton)

Nati onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- ye ar s tove lifes pan

6 In orde r to not ove rstate e mission re ducti ons cause d by the N SPS, em is si ons are re duced to discount pe llets tove s al re ady me et ingthe Step 2l im it (i .e., 70%of pellet stove s al re ady mee t the Ste p 2 l im it ). **Table A-**  **19. Cost Effe**  **cti veness (CE)**  **base d on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2.5 e**  **mi ssions**  **fr om Pe**  **llet S** **tove s** 

1Esti mated nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6-yea r amorti zati on period of R&D cos ts at a 7% i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re presenting a 10 y ear mode l life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 a re p ast the 10-year mode l design lifesp an use d inthi s analysi s.

2Esti mated annual e mi ssions areb as ed on a fore caste d re ven ue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shipments) of 3%f rom 2015 th rough 2029, for the p urpose s of a se nsitivity
an alysis.

3Th es e heate rsh ave i n-home em itti ng lifes pans of at l ea st 20 y ears; thus pe llets tove s shi ppe d in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Nati onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nati onwide

Average Annual C ost Annual S na pshots Em is si on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve pe r y ear

# A

- 20 Base line PM2. 5 Emi ssi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emissi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssi on

Re ducti on (tons) CEb ase d on

nati onwi de average annual co st (per ton) Base line PM2.5

Emi ssi ons (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emissi ons (tons) Emi ssi on

Reducti on (tons) 2015 4 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 921 264 657 $589 921 264 657 2016 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 948 272 677 $572 1, 869 535 1, 334 2017 $1, 057, 518 $387, 171 977 280 697 $555 2, 846 815 2, 031 2018 $680, 112 $387, 171 1, 006 288 718 $539 3, 852 1, 103 2, 749 2019 $680, 112 $387, 171 1, 036 297 740 $523 4, 889 1, 399 3, 489 2020 4 $680, 112 $387, 171 1, 067 136 932 $416 5, 956 1, 535 4, 421 2021 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 099 140 960 $403 7, 056 1, 675 5, 380 2022 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 132 144 988 $392 8, 188 1, 819 6, 369 2023 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 166 148 1, 018 $380 9, 355 1, 968 7, 387 2024 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 201 153 1, 049 $369 10, 556 2, 121 8, 435 2025 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 237 157 1, 080 $358 11, 793 2, 278 9, 515 2026 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 275 162 1, 112 $348 13, 068 2, 440 10, 628 2027 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 313 167 1, 146 $338 14, 381 2, 607 11, 774 2028 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 352 172 1, 180 $328 15, 733 2, 779 12, 954 2029 $66, 074 $387, 171 1, 393 177 1, 216 $319 17, 126 2, 956 14, 169 2030 17, 126 2, 956 14, 169 2031 17, 126 2, 956 14, 169 2032 17, 126 2, 956 14, 169 2033 17, 126 2, 956 14, 169 2034 17, 126 2, 956 14, 169 2035 16, 205 2, 693 13, 512 2036 15, 257 2, 421 12, 835 2037 14, 280 2, 142 12, 138 2038 13, 274 1, 854 11, 420 2039 12, 237 1, 557 10, 680 2040 11, 170 1, 421 9, 749 2041 10, 070 1, 281 8, 789 2042 8, 938 1, 137 7, 801 2043 7, 771 989 6, 783 2044 6, 570 836 5, 734 2045 5, 332 678 4, 654 2046 4, 058 516 3, 542 2047 2, 745 349 2, 396 2048 1, 393 177 1, 216

$5, 807, 558 196, 264 $30

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step2 standard in 2020.
5The n ati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre sents the cost to manufacture rs re sulting from the R&D re -desig n to me et the N SPS and the N SPS-cau sed ce rti ficati on and re porting &
re cordke eping costs to bri ng these stoves to marke t f rom 2015 th ro ugh 2029. CEb ase d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re duction
ove r 20- year
em itti ng l ifespan (pert on)

Na ti onwi de cumulati ve cost 5 Cumulati ve Emi ssi on Re ducti on over 20- year emitt in g lifespa n **Tabl e**  **A- 20.** **Cost Effe ctive**  **ne ss (CE)**  **ba sed**  **on an**  **nual and cumulati ve** **PM 2.5** **e mi**  **ssions fr om Si**  **ngle Bu**  **rn Rate S** **to ve**  **s**

1Esti mate d nati onwi de annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are b ased on a 6-yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7%i ntere st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , pl us annual certifi cati on and re porti ng & re co rd keeping co sts (o ngoi ng through 2029, re pres enting a 10 y ea r mode l life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are p ast the 10- ye ar mode l de sign lifespa n used in th is anal ysi s.
2Esti mate d annual e mi ssi ons are base d on a forecaste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 3%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for the purposes of a se nsitivity anal ysi s.
3The se hea ters have i n-home em itti ng l ifespa ns ofat l ea st 20 years; thus single b urn rate stove s shipped in 2029 w ill be e mi tting through 2048. Ye ar 3 Na tionwide

Annual C ost 1 Na tionwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssi on Re ducti on, cu mul ati ve pery ea r

# A

- 21 Base line PM 2. 5 Em is sions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
average annual cost (pe r to n) Base lin e PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $45, 761, 061 $16, 620, 786 10, 740 7, 351 3, 388 $4, 905 10, 740 7, 351 3, 388 2016 4 $45, 761, 061 $16, 620, 786 11, 062 6, 225 4, 837 $3, 436 21, 802 13, 576 8, 226 2017 4 $37, 432, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 394 2, 249 9, 145 $1, 818 33, 196 15, 826 17, 370 2018 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 11, 736 2, 317 9, 419 $1, 765 44, 932 18, 143 26, 789 2019 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 12, 088 2, 386 9, 702 $1, 713 57, 020 20, 529 36, 491 2020 4 $37, 488, 168 $16, 620, 786 12, 451 389 12, 061 $1, 378 69, 470 20, 918 48, 552 2021 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 12, 824 401 12, 423 $1, 338 82, 294 21, 319 60, 976 2022 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 209 413 12, 796 $1, 299 95, 503 21, 731 73, 771 2023 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 13, 605 425 13, 180 $1, 261 109, 108 22, 157 86, 951 2024 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 14, 013 438 13, 575 $1, 224 123, 121 22, 595 100, 527 2025 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 14, 434 451 13, 983 $1, 189 137, 555 23, 046 114, 509 2026 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 14, 867 465 14, 402 $1, 154 152, 421 23, 510 128, 911 2027 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 15, 313 479 14, 834 $1, 120 167, 734 23, 989 143, 745 2028 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 15, 772 493 15, 279 $1, 088 183, 506 24, 482 159, 024 2029 $877, 000 $16, 620, 786 16, 245 508 15, 737 $1, 056 199, 751 24, 989 174, 762 2030 199, 751 24, 989 174, 762 2031 199, 751 24, 989 174, 762 2032 199, 751 24, 989 174, 762 2033 199, 751 24, 989 174, 762 2034 199, 751 24, 989 174, 762 2035 189, 011 17, 638 171, 373 2036 177, 949 11, 413 166, 536 2037 166, 555 9, 164 157, 391 2038 154, 819 6, 847 147, 972 2039 142, 731 4, 460 138, 271 2040 130, 281 4, 071 126, 209 2041 117, 457 3, 671 113, 786 2042 104, 248 3, 258 100, 990 2043 90, 643 2, 833 87, 810 2044 76, 630 2, 395 74, 235 2045 62, 196 1, 944 60, 253 2046 47, 330 1, 479 45, 851 2047 3 32, 017 1, 001 31, 016 2048 3 16, 245 508 15, 737

$249, 311, 792 2, 486, 001 $100 Na ti onwide Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Em issi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve p er y ea r

6 In orde r to n ot ove rstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are reduced tod iscount ce ntral h ea te rsal re ady me et in g the Ste p 2 l imit( i.e., 18%of hydroni c h ea te rs are e sti mate d to al re ady me et the Step 2 l imit ). Na ti onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- yea r emitting lifespa n **Tabl e**  **A- 21.** **Cost Ef fec** **ti ve**  **ne ss (CE)**  **base d on**  **an nual**  **an d cumul**  **ati ve** **PM 2.5** **e mi**  **ssions from Central He ate**  **rs (**  **For ce**  **d Air Furnace s and Hydroni**  **c He ati**  **ng Syste ms)** 

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the cost to manuf acture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs to bri ng the se he ate rsto marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. 1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period ofR&D costs at a 7% i nterest rate ( during 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porting & re cordke ep in g costs (ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r mo del life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10-yea r mode l de si gn lifespa n use d in thi s anal ysis.

2Ex ce pt for an adjustme nt i n ye ar 2012 b ase d on an in dustry projecti on (NE RA ), estimated annual e missions are base d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 3%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for th e purposes of a s ensitivity an al ysi s.

3The se he ate rshave i n-home emitting lifespa ns ofatl ea st 20 y ea rs; thus mode ls shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048.

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard i n 2020 for al l appl ia nces, except force d-a irf urnace s h ave work practi ce /operational standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r smal l furnace s in 2016, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mission lim its for al l furnace s in 2020. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20-ye ar emitting lifespa n (p ert on) Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1

# A

- 22 Base line PM 2. 5 Emi ssions 2 (tons) NS PS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) CE base d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual co st (per ton) Base line PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re duction (tons) 2015 4 $20, 905, 663 $6, 299, 286 6, 975 6, 975 0 N/A 6, 975 6, 975 0 2016 4 $20, 905, 663 $6, 299, 286 7, 184 5, 837 1, 347 $4, 676 14, 159 12, 812 1, 347 2017 4 $12, 576, 770 $6, 299, 286 7, 400 1, 850 5, 550 $1, 135 21, 559 14, 662 6, 897 2018 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 622 1, 905 5, 716 $1, 102 29, 180 16, 567 12, 613 2019 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 7, 850 1, 963 5, 888 $1, 070 37, 031 18, 530 18, 501 2020 4 $12, 593, 240 $6, 299, 286 8, 086 253 7, 833 $804 45, 117 18, 783 26, 334 2021 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 328 260 8, 068 $781 53, 445 19, 043 34, 402 2022 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 578 268 8, 310 $758 62, 023 19, 311 42, 712 2023 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 8, 836 276 8, 560 $736 70, 859 19, 587 51, 272 2024 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 9, 101 284 8, 816 $715 79, 960 19, 872 60, 088 2025 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 9, 374 293 9, 081 $694 89, 333 20, 164 69, 169 2026 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 9, 655 302 9, 353 $673 98, 988 20, 466 78, 522 2027 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 9, 945 311 9, 634 $654 108, 933 20, 777 88, 156 2028 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 10, 243 320 9, 923 $635 119, 176 21, 097 98, 079 2029 $257, 941 $6, 299, 286 10, 550 330 10, 221 $616 129, 726 21, 427 108, 299 2030 129, 726 21, 427 108, 299 2031 129, 726 21, 427 108, 299 2032 129, 726 21, 427 108, 299 2033 129, 726 21, 427 108, 299 2034 129, 726 21, 427 108, 299 2035 122, 751 14, 452 108, 299 2036 115, 567 8, 615 106, 952 2037 108, 167 6, 765 101, 402 2038 100, 546 4, 859 95, 686 2039 92, 695 2, 897 89, 798 2040 84, 609 2, 644 81, 965 2041 76, 281 2, 384 73, 897 2042 67, 703 2, 116 65, 587 2043 58, 867 1, 840 57, 027 2044 49, 766 1, 555 48, 211 2045 40, 393 1, 262 39, 130 2046 30, 738 961 29, 777 2047 20, 793 650 20, 143 2048 10, 550 330 10, 221

$94, 489, 287 1, 577, 893 $60 **Tab le**  **A-2 2.** **Cost Eff ec** **tiveness (CE) base d**  **on annual**  **and cumul ati**  **ve PM**  **2. 5** **e mi**  **ssions from Force d**  **Air F**  **urnace s** 

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7%i nte re st rate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r model life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10- yea r mode l desig n lifespa n use d i n thi s anal ysis.

2Esti mate d annual e mi ssions are b as ed on a fo re caste d re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogate f or sh ipments) of 3%f rom 2015t hrough 2029, for the purposes ofa s ensitivity anal ysis.

3The se h ea ters have in-home em itti ng l ifes pans of atl ea st 20 ye ars; thus force d-air fu rnace s shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048. Ye ar 3 Na ti onwide

Annual Cost 1 Na ti onwide

Ave rage Annual Cost Annua l Snapshots Emi ssion Re duction, cu mulative per y ea r

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 s tandard be come s effecti ve in 2015 an d Ste p 2 s tandard i n 2020 f or al l appl ia nce s, except force d-a ir f urnace s have wor k practi ce /operati onal standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its for smal l furna ce s in 2016, Ste p 1e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mi ssion lim its for al l furna ce s in 2020. 5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve co st re pre se nts the co st to manufacture rs re sulti ng f rom the R&D re -d es ig n to me et the N SPS and the N SPS- cause d ce rti ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rd ke ep ing costs to bri ng these he at ers to marke t f rom 2014 t hrough 2029. CE base d on total
co st & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- ye ar
em itting lifespa n (per ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul at ive Emi ssi on Re ducti on over 20- yea r
em itting lifespa n

# A

- 23 Base line PM2. 5 Emissi ons 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issions 2 (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CEbase d on

nati onwide
ave rage annual co st (per ton) Base line PM2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 765 376 3, 388 $3, 046 3, 765 376 3, 388 2016 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 878 388 3, 490 $2, 957 7, 643 764 6, 879 2017 $24, 855, 398 $10, 321, 500. 34 3, 994 399 3, 595 $2, 871 11, 637 1, 164 10, 474 2018 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 114 411 3, 703 $2, 788 15, 751 1, 575 14, 176 2019 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 238 424 3, 814 $2, 706 19, 989 1, 999 17, 990 2020 4 $24, 894, 927 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 365 136 4, 228 $2, 441 24, 354 2, 135 22, 218 2021 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 496 140 4, 355 $2, 370 28, 849 2, 276 26, 573 2022 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 630 145 4, 486 $2, 301 33, 480 2, 420 31, 059 2023 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 769 149 4, 620 $2, 234 38, 249 2, 570 35, 679 2024 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 4, 912 154 4, 759 $2, 169 43, 161 2, 723 40, 438 2025 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 5, 060 158 4, 902 $2, 106 48, 221 2, 881 45, 340 2026 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 5, 212 163 5, 049 $2, 044 53, 433 3, 044 50, 389 2027 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 5, 368 168 5, 200 $1, 985 58, 801 3, 212 55, 589 2028 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 5, 529 173 5, 356 $1, 927 64, 330 3, 385 60, 945 2029 $619, 059 $10, 321, 500. 34 5, 695 178 5, 517 $1, 871 70, 025 3, 563 66, 462 2030 70, 025 3, 563 66, 462 2031 70, 025 3, 563 66, 462 2032 70, 025 3, 563 66, 462 2033 70, 025 3, 563 66, 462 2034 70, 025 3, 563 66, 462 2035 66, 260 3, 186 63, 074 2036 62, 382 2, 798 59, 584 2037 58, 388 2, 399 55, 989 2038 54, 273 1, 987 52, 286 2039 50, 036 1, 564 48, 472 2040 45, 671 1, 427 44, 244 2041 41, 176 1, 287 39, 889 2042 36, 545 1, 142 35, 403 2043 31, 776 993 30, 783 2044 26, 863 839 26, 024 2045 21, 804 681 21, 122 2046 16, 592 518 16, 073 2047 3 11, 224 351 10, 873 2048 3 5, 695 178 5, 517

$154, 822, 505 908, 107 $170

4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Ste p 1 standard be co me s effective in 2015 an d Ste p 2s tandard in 2020.

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the co st to manuf acture rs re sultingf rom the R&D re -desig n to me etthe N SPS and the N SPS-cause d ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingcosts to bri ng the se heaters to marke t f rom 2014 th rough 2029. CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve
em ission re ducti on
over 20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespa n (per ton)

Nati onwide cumul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re ducti on ove r 20- yea r
em itti ng l ifespa n

6 In orde r to not overstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are re duce d to discount hydroni c h ea te rs al re ady me et ing the Ste p 2 l im it( i.e., 18%of hydroni c h ea te rsare e sti mate d to al re ady me etthe Ste p 2 l im it ). **Tabl e**  **A- 23.** **Cost Effec** **ti ve**  **ne ss (CE) ba** **sed on**  **annual and cumul**  **ati ve** **PM 2.**  **5 e**  **mi ssions from**  **Hydronic He ati**  **ng Syste**  **ms**

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on pe ri od of R&D costs at a 7% interestrate ( duri ng 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porti ng & re cordke epingcosts ( ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se ntinga 10 y ea r model life). Ye ars 2030 th rough 2048 are past the 10- ye ar mode l design lifes pan use d i n thi s anal ysis.

2Ex ce pt for an adjustment in yea r 2012 b as ed on an i ndustry proje cti on (NE RA ), est im ate d annual e mi ssions are base d on a fore caste d re venue growth rate ( asa s urrogate for shi pments) of 3%f rom 2015 th rough 2029, for the purpose s of a sensitivity anal ysis.

3These he at ers have i n-home em ittingl ifespa ns of at lea st 20 y ea rs; thus hydroni c h ea te rs shi pped in 2029 w ill be em itti ng through 2048. Ye ar Na ti onwide

Annual Cost 1 Nationwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots Emi ssion Re ducti on, cumul at ive per y ea r

# A

- 24 Base line PM 2. 5 Em is sions 2 (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Em issi ons 2 (tons) Emi ssion

Re ducti on (tons) 6 CE base d on

nati onwide
average annual cost (pe r to n) Base lin e PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) NSPS PM 2. 5

Emi ssions (tons) Em ission

Re ducti on (tons) 6
2015 4 $51, 327, 699 $19, 075, 401 12, 120 8, 075 4, 046 $4, 715 12, 120 8, 075 4, 046 2016 4 $51, 327, 699 $19, 075, 401 12, 484 6, 970 5, 514 $3, 459 24, 604 15, 044 9, 560 2017 4 $42, 998, 805 $19, 075, 401 12, 858 3, 016 9, 842 $1, 938 37, 462 18, 061 19, 402 2018 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 13, 252 3, 114 10, 137 $1, 882 50, 714 21, 175 29, 539 2019 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 13, 649 3, 208 10, 441 $1, 827 64, 363 24, 383 39, 980 2020 4 $42, 757, 493 $19, 075, 401 14, 059 819 13, 239 $1, 441 78, 421 25, 202 53, 219 2021 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 480 844 13, 636 $1, 399 92, 902 26, 046 66, 855 2022 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 14, 915 869 14, 045 $1, 358 107, 817 26, 916 80, 901 2023 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 362 895 14, 467 $1, 319 123, 179 27, 811 95, 367 2024 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 15, 823 922 14, 901 $1, 280 139, 002 28, 734 110, 268 2025 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 16, 298 950 15, 348 $1, 243 155, 299 29, 683 125, 616 2026 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 16, 787 978 15, 808 $1, 207 172, 086 30, 662 141, 424 2027 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 17, 290 1, 008 16, 282 $1, 172 189, 376 31, 670 157, 707 2028 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 17, 809 1, 038 16, 771 $1, 137 207, 185 32, 708 174, 477 2029 $1, 356, 037 $19, 075, 401 18, 343 1, 069 17, 274 $1, 104 225, 529 33, 777 191, 751 2030 225, 529 33, 777 191, 751 2031 225, 529 33, 777 191, 751 2032 225, 529 33, 777 191, 751 2033 225, 529 33, 777 191, 751 2034 225, 529 33, 777 191, 751 2035 213, 408 25, 703 187, 706 2036 200, 925 18, 733 182, 192 2037 188, 066 15, 716 172, 350 2038 174, 815 12, 602 162, 213 2039 161, 166 9, 394 151, 772 2040 147, 107 8, 575 138, 532 2041 132, 627 7, 731 124, 896 2042 117, 712 6, 861 110, 851 2043 102, 350 5, 966 96, 384 2044 86, 527 5, 043 81, 483 2045 70, 229 4, 094 66, 136 2046 53, 442 3, 115 50, 327 20473 36, 152 2, 107 34, 045 2048 3 18, 343 1, 069 17, 274

$286, 131, 014 2, 726, 669 $105

6 In orde r to n ot ove rstate e mi ssion re ducti ons cause d by the NSPS, em issions are reduced tod iscount room he ate rsand ce ntral h ea te rsal re ad y me et in g the Ste p 2 l im it (i.e., 26%ofw ood stoves, 70%ofp ellet stoves and 18%o f hydroni c h ea te rs are e sti mate d to al re ady me et the Step 2 l imit ). **Tabl e**  **A-2 4.** **C ost Eff** **ec ti**  **ve ness (CE) based on annual and cumulative** **PM 2.**  **5 e**  **mi ssions from Central H** **ea te**  **rs (Forc** **ed Ai**  **r Furnace s and Hydroni**  **c He ati**  **ng Syste ms)**  **an d Room**  **He ate**  **rs (**  **Wo od Stove**  **s, P**  **ellet Stove**  **s, and Single Burn Rate**  **Stove s)** 
CE base d on total cost & cumul ati ve emission re ducti on
ove r 20-ye ar emitting lifespa n (p ert on) Em issi on Re ducti on, cumul ati ve p er y ea r

Na ti onwide cu mul ati ve
co st 5 Cumul ati ve Emi ssion Re duction over

20- yea r emitting lifespa n

5The nati onwide cu mul ati ve cost re pre se nts the cost to manuf acture rsre sulting from the R&D re -design to meet the N SPS an d the N SPS-caused certi ficati on and
re porti ng & re co rdke eping costs to bri ng the se he ate rsto marke t from 2014 th rough 2029. Ye ar 3 Nationwide

Annual Cost 1 Na ti onwide

Average Annual Cost Annual Snapshots

1Esti mate d nati onwide annual co sts are i n 2013 $ an d are base d on a 6- yea r amorti zati on period ofR&D costs at a 7% i nterest rate ( during 2015- 2020) , plus annual
ce rti ficati on and re porting & re cordke ep in g costs (ongoi ng through 2029, re pre se nti ng a 10 y ea r mo del life). Ye ars 2030 t hrough 2048 are past the 10-yea r mode l de si gn lifespa n use d in thi s anal ysis.

2Ex ce pt for adjustments in y ea rs2012 an d 2018 b ased on an i ndustry proje ct io ns (NE RA) , estimated an nual e mi ssions are b ase d on a forecaste d re ve nue growth rate ( as a surrogate for shi pme nts) of 3%f rom 2015 t hrough 2029, for th e purposes of a s ensitivity an al ysi s.

3The se he ate rshave i n-home emitting lifespa ns ofatl ea st 20 y ea rs; thus mode ls shipped in 2029 w ill be emitting through 2048.
4Esti mate d e mi ssions assume Step 1 standard be come s e ffective in 2015 an d Step 2 standard i n 2020 for al l appl ia nces, except force d-a irf urnace s h ave work practi ce /operational standards i n 2015, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r smal l furnace s in 2016, Ste p 1 e mi ssion lim its fo r l arge f urnace s in 2017 an d Ste p 2 e mission lim its for al l furnace s in 2020.