NBSIR 74-426

Survey Plans and Data Collection and

Analysis Methodologies: Results of a

Pre-survey for the Magnitude and

Extent of the Lead Based Paint Hazard

in Housing

William Hall. Tyrone Ayers

Applied Mathematics Division

Institute for Basic Standards

and

Dwight Doxey

Technical Analysis Division

Institute for Applied Technology

National Bureau of Standards

Washington. D. C. 20234

January 1974

Final Report

Prepared for Office of Policy Development and Research

Department of Housing and Urban Development

Washington, D. C. 20410

NBSIR 74-426

SURVEY PLANS AND DATA COLLECTION AND

ANALYSIS METHODOLOGIES: RESULTS OF A

PRE-SURVEY FOR THE MAGNITUDE AND

EXTENT OF THE LEAD BASED PAINT HAZARD

IN HOUSING

William Hall, Tyrone Ayers

Applied Mathematics Division

Institute for Basic Standards

and

Dwight Doxey

Technical Analysis Division

Institute for Applied Technology

National Bureau of Standards

Washington, D. C. 20234

January 1974

Final Report

Prepared for Office of Policy Development and Research

Department of Housing and Urban Development

Washington, D. C. 20410

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Frederick B. Dent, Secretary

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS, Richard W. Roberts, Director

Contents

Page

Abstract i

1. Introduction ^

2. Sampling Plan 3

3. Data Collection Form - ^

4. Drawing of Sample 9

5. Survey Manual 10

6. Washington, D.C. Sample 11

7. Computer Programs 16

7.1. Sample Generation Program 16

7.2. Edit Program 20

7.3. Histogram Program 21

^' Feedbacks and Judgment Factors 25

8.1. Dwelling Accessibility 25

8.2. XRF Adequacy 27

8.3. Cost 28

8.4. Resident Notification and Call-Back Procedures 30

9. Summary and Conclusions 31

Appendix A - Data Collection Form 32

Appendix B - Cumulative Distribution of Data from

Washington, D.C. Pre-Survey 33

Appendix C - Sample Generator 54

Program , 55

Output Specimen 61
Contents (cont.)

Page

Appendix D - Edit 67

/ Program 68

Output Specimen 79

Appendix E - Histogram 85

Program 86

Output Specimen 95

Appendix F - XRF Calibration Procedure 100

Appendix G - Resident Notification Letter 104

References 105
Abstract

A pilot survey of housing in Washington, D.C. was carried out in

order to develop and test methodologies, data collection procedures and

formats that will be used in subsequent full scale surveys of cities to

determine the magnitude and extent of the lead-based paint hazard in

housing.

On site measurements of lead contents of interior and exterior

surfaces were made (with portable x-ray fluorescence lead detectors,

hereafter referred to as XRF's) on 115 dwelling units which were randomly selected from a Washington, D.C. city directory.

This report describes the procedures for identifying the survey

sample, drawing the sample, and carrying out the survey. Computer programs for data handling and analysis are included and a brief summary

of the data obtained from the pilot survey is presented.

Key Words: Housing; housing survey; lead; lead hazard; lead paint;

lead poisoning; survey; urban health problems.

i

Survey Plans and Data Collection and Analysis Methodologies:

Results of a Pre-Survey for the Magnitude and Extent

of the Lead Based Paint Hazard in Housing

1. Introduction

Lead poisoning in children has been a serious health problem for

many years although its magnitude has not been universally recognized

until very recently. It is easy for lead poisoning to be misdiagnosed

or even unnoticed since its initial symptoms are very non-specific;

they include nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, constipation, anemia,

irritability, anorexia, and listlessness . The disease, if untreated,

may lead to central nervous system involvement and result in blindness,

paralysis, mental retardation and death; less severe cases may leave the

victim with learning problems, partial loss of sensory perception, and

behavioral and other emotional difficulties. These insidious characteristics, and the fact that there are an estimated 600,000 children in the

United States with elevated blood lead levels* point up the gravity of

the lead poisoning problem.

It is generally assumed that the primary cause of lead poisoning

among children is the ingestion of lead based paints from surfaces of

residences. But even though the cause of lead poisoning has been

identified (at least by conventional wisdom), virtually all of the

efforts to determine the extent of the hazard have been follow ups to

the location and treatment of lead poisoning victims. There has been

* Gilsinn, Judith F. , Estimates of the Nature and Fxtent of Lead Paint

Poisoning In the United States , NBS Technical Note 7A6.

1
no research performed which was scientifically designed to identify,

measure, or characterize the actual or potential hazard due to lead

based paint in dwelling units.

A Washington, D.C. pre-survey was designed and executed as a

microcosm of a large scale survey for determining the magnitude and

extent of the lead based paint hazard in dwelling units. The feasibility of such a survey was assumed; our primary objective, aside from the

validation of parameter estimates, was to determine (and develop, if

necessary) the most practical and efficient means of performing each of

the aspects of a large survey. These aspects ranged from sample design

through development of computer programs for editing and analysis of

the data collected.

Several of the data analyses are presented, but their usefulness

is serendipitous; the real objective being the development and refinement of procedures and mechanisms for use in a large scale survey.
2. Sampling Plan

There are three reasonable approaches for determining the magnitude

of the lead-based paint hazard in housing. The first is to develop a

mathematical model and use previously published demographic and housing

data to calculate the hazard*. Unfortunately, there is not enough known

about the distribution of lead-based paint to make this approach

feasible. It is conceivable (but by no means certain) that such

methodology can be developed as appropriate data become available.

A second approach is the 100% census of all units; this method can

be discarded immediately on the basis of cost. A conservative estimate

of cost is $10 per dwelling unit for data collection alone.

The one reasonable alternative is use of a statistical sample.

Obviously all the housing stock within a city is not homogeneous with

respect to all possible predictors of the existence of lead based paint.

This fact forces the stratification of the sample into cells in a way

based on the general criteria:

1. Cells should be compatible with those commonly used in previously published housing data.

2. Cells should be as nearly homogeneous as practicable with

respect to all attributes which are predictors of lead-based

paint

.

3. The number of cells should be as small as is practicable.

* This approach was used quite successfully (NBS Technical Note 746)

for estimating the extent of lead poisoning in the United States.

3
The cells which have been tentatively selected are defined combinations of age of unit, occupancy class (by number of families) and

whether occupancy is by owner or renter.

Not all combinations are required; none are precluded by limitation

of data collected. The age categories are:

1. pre 1940

2. 1940 through 1959

3. 1960 to present

These categories are consistent with Bureau of the Census data

(Metropolitan Housing Characteristics HC(2) - 232) and correspond to

eras which differed as to the technological restrictions and/or legal

requirements for the lead content of paint.

The occupancy class categories (identical to those of Bureau of

the Census, Detailed Housing Characteristics HC(IO) - Bl) are;

1. Single family detached

2. Single family attached

3. Two to four faw-ilies

4. Five to nine families

5. Ten to nineteen families

6. Twenty to forty-nine families

7. Fifty or more families.

It is expected that different maintenance (including painting)

practices will have been followed for different sizes of buildings.

L
A likely cell configuration is shown below:

Age of Dwelling Units

Pre 1940 1940-1959 1960-1973

Single Family Owner

Renter

Two to Four Units

Five to Nineteen Units

Twenty or More Units

Assume P% of the dwelling units in a cell have a specified characteristic (incidence of lead based paint, for example), and it is necessary

to estimate P at the M% confidence level* (i.e. M% of the time P is

correct to within +T%) , the required sample size S is given by:

S = K^P(IOO-P)

where K is dependent upon M. For any "large" population, S is independent

of the cell population and attains its maximum at P = 50%. By way of

illustration, assume T = 5% and M = 95% (for M = 95%, K = 1.96 which

is rounded to 2.0 for computational convenience ). Then

c, _ 4 P(IOO-P)

Cochran, William G. , Sampling Techniques , John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,

New York, 1953, p. 51.

5
For representative values of P, S is:

P = 10%; (100-P) =90% S = 144

P = 20%; (100-P) =80% S = 256

P = 30%; (100-P) =70% S = 336

P = 40%; (100-P) =60% S = 384

• P = 50%; (100-P) =50% S = 400

P = 60%; (100-P) =40% S = 384

P = 70%; (100-P) =30% S = 336

P = 80% (100-P) =20% S = 256

P = 90%; (100-P) =10% S = 144

Note that S is syiranetric about P = 50% and has its maximum value

there, (i.e. P = 10% and P = 90% the sample size is identical). An

estimate of P = 50% is always safe although it may be expensive.

An adjustment may be made for small populations* by:

Sa =

1+.S-1

where S is the original estimate, N is the population size, and is

the adjusted sample size.

To illustrate the value (in cost savings) of this adjustment

procedure, the following S values are calculated for various values c A

N with S = 400:

* Cochran, William G. , Sampling Techniques , John Wiley & Sons, Inc.,

New York, 1953, p. 55.

6
N

A

100 81

200 TO/ 134

300 172

400 200

500 222

750 261

1,000 286

10,000 385

100,000 399

1,000,000 400

The sample size estimate should be determined independently for

each cell using the best available prior estimates of P and of the cell

population. If at some point in the survey the value of P is different

from the estimated value that was used initially, then the size of the

sample for that cell should be adjusted. In this way oversampling can

be avoided.

7
3. Data Collection Form

The Intent in designing the data collection form (see Appendix A)

was to achieve an "overdesign" . This was felt to be desirable for the

following reasons:

1. Data should be compatible with published housing data.

2. The lead-based paint "hazard" is susceptible to various definitions. The data should be amenable to selection and aggregation according to any likely definition of "hazard".

3. The nature of the data to be collected is such that there is

little intrinsic redundancy,

A. Little is known about the distribution of lead-based paint

within dwelling units; it is conceivable that the distribution

of lead within the dwelling units may be of as much interest

as its distribution among dwelling units.

5. Incremental cost of extra readings Is low.

6. The data collections form is the reporting Instrument from

field collection to local management and from local management

to NBS.

7. The data collected is a useful data base for estimating costs

of deleading.

Aside from the content of the form, a primary goal of form design

was to ease conceptually and mechanically the task of the survey team.

Other goals were to provide an instrument useful to survey administration and convenient for automated data processing use.

The final version of the data collection form is believed to be

acceptable on all counts.

8
4. Drawing of Sample

A specific procedure for drawing the sample population of dwelling

units for a city survey is given in section 7.1.

The basic ingredient required for the drawing of a good sample is

an address list containing each current dwelling unit of the population.

Unfortunately such a list is not likely to exist; some alternatives must

be investigated.

A list approximating that required may exist or be derivable from

tax assessor's records or real estate transaction records. There is

high probability that such a list would be oriented to tracts or

buildings rather then dwelling units.

Another potential source is Bureau of Census tapes. However, use

of nonaggregated census data involves severe confidentiality problems

as well as the technical problems (selection criteria, disaggregation,

sorting, etc.) of producing a dwelling unit list.

A third source is the commercially published city directory such

as "R. L. Polk City Directories" or "Lusk Assessment Directories",

which exist for most cities.

One difficulty common to any of the lists is that of being out of

date; subsequent to preparation of the list, some dwelling units will

have been razed, some will have been constructed, and there will have

been conversions to and from residential use from and to nonresidential

use. A second common difficulty is that none of the available or producible lists are amenable to drawing of samples by cell (as defined in

section 2.), but this can be overcome by proper sampling methodology.

9
Both the City Directory and the tax lists have a bias due to the

known tendency for surreptitious conversions which increase the number

of dwelling units per building. Nevertheless, a city directory is

believed to be a "good" source for generation of samples. The directory

used for the Washington, D.C. work was the "R. L. Polk City Directory"

and the sample was drawn manually. This procedure was adequate but the

use of the computer program subsequently developed (and described in

section 7.1.) will produce samples more economically and efficiently.

5 . Survey Manual

One of the important products of the pre-survey was a Survey Manual

which is intended to be sufficiently comprehensive to serve any city

performing a similar survey. This Manual will be published by NBS as a

separate document.

A first draft of the Manual was written before the pre-survey

began. It was considered a "living" document and was continually modified and refined as experience dictated. The Manual contains enough

information about statistical methodology to be self-contained in that

respect, but is oriented primarily toward the mechanics of performing

a survey.

10
6. Washington, D.C. Sample

For the Washington, D.C. pre-survey, a sample of 233 dwelling units

was drawn manually using the "R. L. Polk City Directory" for 1968 as a

population list. Table 6-1 shows the outline of attempted units by

ZIP code.

For the total units on which data were collected, table 6-2 shows

their breakdown by occupancy class and age of unit.

Table 6-3 compares the characteristics of dwelling units appearing

in the pre-survey with those indicated by 1970 census data by occupancy

class and age of unit.

Table 6-4 defines (using 1970 census data for cell population, and

probabilities of hazard as derived from data collected - Appendix B) for

alternative definitions of what constitutes a hazard.* S is the sample

size** for the worst case (maximum sample size); this occurs when P, the

probability that a hazard exists, is 50%. is the sample size required

for P^ defined as the probability that there exists at least one surface

2 within a dwelling unit which has a lead content of 1.0 mg/cm or more.

$2 is the sample size required for P^ defined as the probability that

there exists at least one surface within a dwelling unit which has a lead

2 content of 2.0 mg/cm or more.

* There is no accepted definition of "hazard" in terms of mg/cm of lead,

condition of surface and/or substrate and/or location within dwelling

unit. The definitions for hazard here are for illustration only. A

firm definition is required before a large scale survey can be executed.

** Sample size is predicated on 95% confidence +5%.

11
Z 1^300,

o

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15,0

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rH 61003 00 CO rH rH CO

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« vO gT003 r-l r-l iH CO CO

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• <•

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30003 <}• rH CO rH 00

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rH 1

Status

Conpleted

Measurements

Occupant

Not

Hoir.e

Refusal

Non-Existing

Address

Abandoned

Property

Under

Construction

-a

0) x: >^

•H 1-1 rH CJ O Oh E O

CJ i-i Pa P-i

New

Structure

or

Converted

Lobby

Entrance

Locked,

Unattended

Inconvenient

Timing

Total

#

Total

%

12
Table 6-2. Types of Dwelling Units by Occupancy Type

and Age of Structure

Ovmer Occupied Housing Renter Occupied Housing

IQ-^Q or Earlier

1940

1959 Present Total

IQ-^Q or Earlier

1940

1959

1960 to

Present Total

Total

omgxe xaiiiixy

detached

QO7

1 1

1

A

cJ

f\u n\j J ^x

oxngxc i-duixxy

attached

1 A u1

A

±0 Q AH nV

2 to 4

Families

0 0 0 0 5 1 0 6 6

5 to 9

Families

1 0 0 1 3 2 1 6 7

10 to 19

Families

0 0 0 0 7 6 3 16 16

20 to 49

Families

0 0 0 0 4 0 2 6 6

50 or more

Families

1 0 0 1 12 7 10 29 30

Total 24 9 1 34 45 20 16 81 115

13
Table 6-3. Distribution of Housing Units: 1970 Census Data*

Compared with Data from the 1973 Lead Paint Survey

Census Bureau Lead Paint Survey % Difference

All Housing 278390 % 115 %

Owner Occupied Housing 74054 26.6 34 29.6 +3

Single Detached 28326 10.2 16 13.9 +3.7

Single Attached 38398 13.8 16 13.9 +0.1

2 to A 2587 ,9 0 .0 -0.9

5 or more 4587 1.6 2 1.7 +0.1

Renter Occupied Housing 188484 67.7 81 70.4 +2.7

Single Detached 7377 2 .

6

5 4.3 +1.7

Dingie Attached 24489 8.8 13 11.3 +2.5

2 to 4 28874 10.4 6 5.2 -5.2

5 to 9 20244 7.3 6 5.2 -2.1

10 to 19 35541 12.8 16 13.9 +1.1

20 to 49 18478 6.6 6 5.2 -1.4

50 or more 53391 19 2 29 25.2 • +6

1939 or Earlier (Total) 130764 47.0 69 60.0 +13.0

1 Owner 44532 16.0 24 20.

9

+4,9

Renter 78224 28.1 45 39.1 +11.0

19A0 to 1959 (Total) 103756 37.3 29 25.2 -12.1

Owner 25220 9.1 9 7.8 1.3

Renter 72959 26.2 20 17.4 -8.8

1960 to Present 43870 15,8 17 14.8 -1.0

Owner 4302 1.5 1 0.9 -.6

Renter 37301 13.4 16 13.9 + .5

* U.S. Bureau of the Census, Census of Housing: 1970 Detailed Housing

Characteristics, Final Report HC(1)-B1 United States Summary
Table 6-4. Sample Size Required By Cell

for Alternate Definitions of Hazard

Pre-1940 1940-1959 1960-Present

PPP ^ ^1 ^2 PPP ^ 1 2 PPP1 2 N 50 100 81 M 50 92 58 N 50 65 18

Owner Occupied

Single Family 4C386 23530 2808

S 397 394 341

S, 0 118 323

S2 246 384 219

Two or More Family 4122 1653 1399

S 361 321 310

S, 0 111 290

82 234 316 203

Renter Occupied

Single Family 17884 10887 3095

S 393 388 354

0 117 326

S^ 244 377 221

Two to Four Family 15856 11951 1067

S 392 388 292

0 117 272

S2 244 378 195

Five to Nineteen 17482 24696 13637

S 393 394 391

S, 0 118 355

82 244 384 233

Twenty or Mote 26937 25436 19496

S 394 394 393

S-^ 0 118 358

82 245 385 235

Totals

S = 6690 2330 2279 2081

S] = 2623 0 699 1924

^2 = 3987 1457 2224 1306

15
7. Computer Programs

The computer programs described below would not have been developed

just for the Washington, D.C. suirvey. The amount of data gathered was

not sufficient to justify the effort of computer program development.

Appendices B, C, D, and E contain sample results and the computer program

listings.

This effort was undertaken in line with the understanding that the

Washington, D.C. survey was a precursor of a large scale survey; suitable

computer programs are indispensable for such a survey.

Additional programs may be required, and the existing ones may require modification if preliminary analyses indicate the desirability of

additional analyses.

7.1. Sample Generator

This computer program is reported here for convenience. Although

the program was not used during the Washington, D.C. pre-survey, it was

prepared as an element of computer program support to be used in subsequent city surveys. The need for such a program became obvious during

the pre-survey; the time and effort required for manually drawing a

sample, and for maintaining records adequate for preventing duplication

of entries became excessive. '

The sample generator creates a set of samples from a hard copy

directory. It is parameterized so that any directory may be used.

The parameters are: ,

1. Page number of first page containing addresses (must be >^ 1 and

<1024)

2. Page number of last page containing addresses (must be >^ 1 and

<1024)

16
3. Number of columns per page (must be >^1 and <8)

A. Number of lines per page (must be >_1 and <512)

5. Size of first sample (must be _<8160; the number of addresses

in the sample produced will be the least multiple of 160 which

is greater than or equal to the size specified)

The program generates 8191 triples, every triple being a set of

indices each of which is randomly selected, denoting page, column and

line of the directory. Duplicates are eliminated and the first sample

is sorted by order of appearance in the directory and printed. This is

the original sample to be used in the survey. The remainder of the

triples are then sorted by AO-entry blocks into directory order and

these samples are printed. (Examples of each sample type appear in

Appendix C)

Each of the samples thus generated is a random sample, as is any

combination of these samples. If any entry from a sample is used, then

the entire sample must be used in order to preserve the validity

(absence of bias) of the procedure.

In using the samples, the entire first sample is used to start a

survey. Some, because of directory anomalies such as short pages, commerical addresses, blank lines, etc., can be identified in advance as

not denoting dwelling units; others will be found, in the field, to

denote non-existent or nonresidential buildings. If the remaining

sample is smaller than that required, one or more of the AO-entry

samplles must be added to the survey sample. This process of adding AOentry samples to the survey sample may be iterated until the survey

sample is of sufficient size for the desired confidence level.

17
The program consists of a main program (DIRECT) and a subroutine

(SORT) both written in FORTRAN and a function subroutine (RAND) in

assembly language. The FORTRAN programs should be readily transportable

to any computer system of sufficient size with word length of 36 bits

or more. On other systems RAND must be replaced by some function* which

calculates a random variable X, 0 < X < 1, with a statement:

X = RANDNO (0, SEED)

where SEED is changed within the function subroutine to advance the

random variable with successive calls. The method used in RAND is the

conventional multiplicative one which requires input of a starting

value of SEED and provides for generation of a different sequence of

random variables on subsequent runs by printing the last value of SEED

at run termination.

Required Input '

1. Seed & sentinel (Format 3013)

a. High order part of SEED

b. Low order part of SEED

c. Sentinel of binary I's (377777777777)

2. Directory Parameters (Format 515)

a. IPS (number of starting page)

b. IPN (num-ber of last page)

c. IC (number of columns/page)

d. IL (number of lines/page)

e. IFIRST (size of first sample)

* Mihram, G. Arthur, Simulation: Statistical Foundations and Methods , Academic Press j New York^ 1972.

18
Output;

INPUT PRINT

«1 "2 ""3 h h h h h

NEXT VALUE OF SEED ^^^^ ^ ^^^^^ ^^^^^

followed by the samples generated.

ot^ is 12 character octal high order part of initial SEED

a2 is 12 character octal low order part of initial SEED

is 377777777777 (a^ -a^ are print back of seed & sentinel input)

6^ is IPS

32 is IPN

is ic

S, is IL

4

3^ is IFIRST (3^ -3^ are print back of directory parameters.)

is 12 character octal high order part of last SEED

Y2 is 12 character octal low order part of last SEED

6 is the r-iraber of distinct units in the 8191 unit sample after

duplicates have been eliminated.

19
7.2. Edit Program

Although there is little redundancy in the data on the data

collection forms, it was believed essential to edit those collected

data before analysis programs were run. The edit program, using a

punched card version of the data collection for an input, produces a

"clean" file; all entries are processable.

XRF readings are "corrected" according to the calibration parameters

of the instrument being used. In addition, each data field of input

which appears to the program either in error within itself or to be

inconsistent with other data fields from the same form is printed as

a computer output facsimile input record with indicators as to the

error suspected by the program.

, The suspect data are replaced by default values; there is a simple

mechanism for removal, replacement or deletion from the clean file.

Certain default values are inserted automatically by EDIT. (For example,

a blank in the data collection form's column which denotes room condition is defaulted to "good".)

In practice, EDIT will be run for a group of data collection forms;

outputs will be : (a) summary by dwelling unit types: (b) number of

lines entered, etc.; (c) an error file; and (d) a "clean" output file.

The summary is useful for both control and reconciliation. The

error file indicates which entries must be checked manually. The clean

file may be used for analysis with the user knowing full well that some

data in the clean file may have "default values". It is thus possible

20
to get an intermediate data file very rapidly with updating done subsequently as convenient.

7.3. Histogram Program

The program HIST is used with the subroutine TABULA to produce

histograms of lead levels within an individual cell (or specified

combination of cells). The intervals used are: 0.0 through 1.0 by

steps of .2 mg/cm , 1.0 through 3.0 by steps of .5 mg/cm , 3.0 through

5.0 by steps of 1.0 mg/cm , 5.0 through 10.0 by steps of 2.5 mg/cm^ and

10.0 and over. These intervals are not parameterized but fixed in the

program.

The allowable "universes" for the histogram.s are fixed by the

program; they consist of each possible combination of age of unit and

occupancy class as they are defined on the data collection form, plus

totals and selected subtotals. Each selection criterion causes the

generation of 68 histograms plus some summary statistics for each. These

data appear as a five page report (see Appendix E for an example) . All

pages contain a page number and a test heading describing the selection

criteria used.

Page 1 contains histograms for all dwelling units (DU's) built prior

to 1940 (major heading "TO 39"); column headings are lead level intervals.

The occupancy classes appear as m.inor line headings. Abbreviations used

in computer reports appear in parentheses V7ith respective occupancy class

definitions. Occupancy classes which do not appear explicitly on the

data collection form are indicated by *: 21
Single-Detached-Owner Occupied (S-D-0)

Single-Detached Renter Occupied (S-D-R)

Single-Detached (S-D)

Single-Attached-Owner Occupied (S-A-0)

Single-Attached-Renter Occupied (S-A-R)

Single-Attached (S-A)

Single* (SINGLE)

Two to Four Unit /Building (2-4)

Five to Nine Units/Building (5-9)

* Two to Nine Units/Building (2-9)

Ten to Nineteen Units /Building (10-19)

Twenty to Forty Nine Units/Building (20-49)

Fifty or more Units/ Building (50+)

Ten or more Units/Building

Two or more Units/Building (2-50)

Unknown occupancy class (UNKWN)

All Units (TOTAL)

Pages 2, 3 5 and 4 have the same format as page 1. These data are

for the different age categories: 1940 through 1959 (major heading "40-

59"), 1960 and after (major heading "60-73"), and all units (major heading "00-73") respectively.

Page 5 contains the number of entries, mean and standard deviation

for each cell. The major headings for pages 1--^ (year built) are the

column headings for this page.

The selection criteria are only partially parameterized. Parameteriza

tion includes a selection on CONDITION, the choices being: all conditions

22
good for substrate and surface with no water damage, and not good

(either substrate and/or surface is not good and/or there is indication

of water damage) ; and a selection by room type (any single room t3rpe

or any room types which appear consecutively on the data collection form)

Other selection criteria have been used but by modification of

the program.

Criteria which have been used are:

A. Unit Room element

1. Walls

All Walls

High wall/room

2. Trim

All

High trim/room

All Doors

B. Room categories (with room indices as on data collection foirm)

1. All rooms (11-73)

2. Living rooms (11)

3. Living, dining & family rooms (11-13)

4 . Kitchens (21)

5 . Bathrooms (31-32)

6. Adult's Bedrooms (41-43)

7. Children's Bedrooms (51-53)

8. All Bedrooms (41-53)

23
C. Condition Criterion

1. All

2. Good

3. Not good

D. Others

1. High Wall/DU

2. High trim/DU

3. High readlng/DU

The capability exists to use types of "and-or" combinations

with little or no change to the existing programs.

Appendix E contains a program listing and sample results. The

figures and tables of Appendix B were derived from output of this

program.

24
8. Feedbacks and Judgment Factors

Sections 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7 and the appendices of this report

describe, in a rather academic manner, procedures for performing major

elements of a lead-based paint survey; the feedback from the knowledge

gained in performing the pre-survey is implicit. For most of the

products described, there was extensive modification from the initial

conceptualization to the final version.

For the survey manual, prescriptions or recipes for all of the

elements of a survey were required. Where appropriate, these prescriptions have the same content (with different orientation) as the sections

and appendices of this report. Other areas required prescriptions

based on subjective judgment of the NBS personnel who performed the

pre-survey.

8.1. Dwelling Accessibility

It is believed that NBS experience in gaining access to dwelling

units represents a "worst case" when compared to the access rate which

can be expected in a full scale survey performed by a local government

agency. The refusal rate of 15% (table 6-1) of the total sample is

higher than that usually considered acceptable . ^'^ It is believed that a

local agency will do much better with respect to refusals for several

reasons

:

* Hansen, Morris H. , Hurwitz, William U., and Madow, William G., Sample

Survey Methods and Theory , Vol. I, Methods and Applications.

25
1. The geographic density of the units in the sample will be high

compared to the pre-survey. (Samples size for a Washington, D,C. survey

would be about 2% of the population or one unit in fifty.) Word of

mouth in the neighborhoods after a survey is in progress should tend

to allay the fear and suspicion of the resident. Fear was believed to

be the dominant motive for refusal of entry in the pre-survey.

2. The magnitude of a large scale survey will justify media

coverage. Cooperation from newspapers and radio and television stations

whether as news or public service items should tend to allay fear and

suspicion of the resident and encourage the cooperation of the

populace. In the pre-survey it was noted that residents of poorer

neighborhoods were more cooperative and less suspicious of the survey

crews than residents of more affluent neighborhoods. Residents of the

poorer neighborhoods seemed to be much more aware of lead-based paint

as a hazard; this we attributed to the educational and screening

programs which have been and are being carried out by the D.C.

government (Accident Prevention Bureau of the Department of Human

Resources)

.

3. It is expected that the local agency performing the survey will

be one with an inspection authority or at least a perceived inspection

authority.

26
8.2. XRF Adequacy

Some of the characteristics of the XRF instruments had to be

verified to determine the practicality of a large scale survey. These

were:

1. The number of readings between charges.

2. Ability to survive and function in field rather than laboratory

use

3. Accuracy.

4. Amenability to calibration by relatively unskilled personnel.

The number of readings between charges could perhaps be the

limiting factor for the number of dwelling units which can be measured

in a day. If this is the limiting factor, the limitation is not severe;

based on the pre-survey, the instrument is capable of measuring six to

eight dwelling units between charges. This is about the number of

units a single survey team could expect to visit in a work day. The

number of units measurable could be extended by use of a charger in the

automobile used by the survey team.

The XRF instrument showed sufficient reliability and durability for

use in the field. There were some instrument malfunctions during the

pre-survey, but "down" time V7a£ not a major problem. Instrument malfunctions were either complete failures or were accompanied by obvious

indicators of malfunction (at least as far as is known) . Such graceful

degradation is quite important since the inability to collect data is

much less severe than the collection of erroneous data. One spare

instrument for six or eight survey teams should assure that excessive

time will not be lost due to instrument failure.

27
The accuracy*: of the XRF's is less than one would like particularly

2 in the critical 0 to 2.0 mg/cm range. There is some evidence also of

a drift as a function of temperature**. In spite of these limitations,

there is no alternative technology for performing a large survey which

is competitive in terms of cost effectiveness.

The calibration procedure (Appendix F) is relatively simple and

quite rapid; it imposes no excessive limitation either as to time

required or personnel prerequisites. Implicit in the advocacy of this

procedure is the assumption that an additional "correction" procedure

(as in Edit Program, section 7.2) is to be used in data reduction.

. . 8.3. Cost

The actual measurement time required per unit for the pre-survey

was about 30 minutes. Times were fairly constant ranging from a

minimum of 20 minutes to a maximum of 51 minutes. Questionnaire data

collection was concurrent with and always less time consuming than the

taking of measurements. Travel time, both that between successive

units and that to and from Washington, D.C. was quite high for the

pre-survey . .. ,

* Spurgeon, Joe C, Response Characteristics of a Portable X-Ray

Fluorescence Lead Detector: Detection of Lead in Paint , NBSIR 72-231,

June 1973.

** Street, William C, NBS Lead Paint Project, Private Communication.

28
Inter-unit travel time was quite variable ranging from a few minutes

to more than an hour. Travel time to the survey area from NBS was

consistently high. Both of these time components are believed to have

been "worst" case for the pre-survey. It is difficult to conceive of a

facility more remotely located than NBS; the inter-unit time for the presurvey was a natural result of a small sample from a widely dispersed

population. For a larger sample, the travel time can be cut dramatically

because of the density of the sample with respect to geographic area

and also by improvement of single day itineraries. (Reasonable itineraries

are a natural consequence of the use of the Sample Generator Program

since the city directories are in address order.) It is believed that

six dwelling units per day is a reasonable goal for performing a survey;

this should allow for daily calibration of the XRF, travel to and from

the survey area, inter-unit travel, and survey execution.

Other personnel costs are for administrative/clerical support and

for supervisors. At least one administrator/clerk is required on a

full time basis for handling mail, sample control, scheduling callbacks, and in general supplying the survey teams a base of operations.

The supervisory requirements could be met by full or part time people

depending on the organization and managerial style of the agency

performing the survey.

29
Training and orientation at the beginning of the survey should

require three to five working days. The Survey Manual recommends a

training schedule consisting of two days of classroom and laboratory

work plus one day of field work for survey teams. Other survey

personnel should require little additional training.

Other overhead components are automobile expenses for the survey

crews, mail, telephone, and office space.

' 8.4. Resident Notification and Call-Back Procedures

Recommendations as to best procedure for resident notification and

call-back procedures which appear in the Survey Manual represent the

considered best judgment of NBS personnel involved in the pre-survey.

It is felt rather strongly that initial contact should be by

letter rather than by telephone, and that the letter should be brief

and concise. Several form letters were tried during the pre-survey

and that which was believed most effective is included in the Survey

Manual.

The call-back procedures recomm.ended in the manual proved workable

in the pre-survey. Other procedures may work equally well or better

for a full scale survey performed by a local agency in some other city

with different economic, geographic and demographic characteristics.

30
9 . Summary and Conclusions

It is practicable to perform a large scale survey. A two man team

can survey at least six DU's per eight hour work day. The cost per unit

should be approximately 15 to 20 dollars per unit for an entire survey

including local administration, local travel, training, start up costs

etc.

The cost and nature of the analysis to which the collected data

will be subjected are far more uncertain. The computer programs

(section 7) which have been developed are fairly transportable (i.e.,

can be easily adapted to use computer systems other than the UNIVAC 1108)

,

and may be used by any agency performing a survey. The ADP functions

performed by these programs are conceptually fundamental. They also

are those which are required very early in a survey: a sample selection

procedure, data base construction, and some fairly general ways to

select, aggregate, and present the data.

Computer generated reports (such as these in Appendices B and E)

based on adequate samples will enable the development of more detailed

insights into the characteristics of the lead-based paint hazard.

Efforts to validate these insights and work out their consequences will

require subjecting the data to additional analyses, the nature of which

cannot now be predicted.

31
Appendix A - Data Collection Form

SERIAL NO..., LINE

j CODE

} oo!

jip zjRQ <:mmiJL.-.-Vi?5|AIJ55L ^JMSL^^ jlqck. ,

ADDRESS i

XRF INSr PA'.' ,v.r. oc Yk CR CC EBLL

02i [ZCmZLIirilLTlL

INTEPaOR

ROOMS

LIVING

DINING

FAMILY

'

KITCHEN

BATH I

BATH II

BED I

BED II

BED III

BASEMENT I

BASEMENT 11

HALL

FOYER-LOBBY

STAIRWAY

COND

,S AND crTLiNc:

Wl

RDG H2

RDG W3 W4

RDG RDG CLG

RDG :OND

^1

TRIM MINGS 0 T li E R

NO RDG

EXTERIOR

WALL

PORCH

DOOR

WINDOW

RAILING

FENCE ;

GARAGE

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

RDG COKD

*NUMBER OF ROOMS OR HALLWAYS SOT INCLUDED IK THIS SURVEY?

RDG

RDG ROAPri-^l FLOOR RADjCAB

FIREPLACE

Type of Construction (T?)

!_ Frame

2_ Masonry

3 Concrete

Outside Surface of Building (XS)

1 V/ood Siding 5 Brick or Stone

2 VJood Shingle 6 Stucco or Cement Block

3^ Asbestos Shingle Aluminum Siding

4 Asphalt Siding

Occupancy (OC)

1 one- family detached

2_ one -family attached

2 2 to 4 families

4 5 to 9 fami] ies

5 10 to 19 families

6 20 to 49 families

7 50 or more fami; res

I Year (YR)

|1^19_3_9 or Earlier, 2_1940 to 1959^_3._1960_to Present

90

ROOMS HALLS OTHER

1

MATERIAL (, CONDITION SYMBOLS

VISITATION CODES

ll SASE MATERI/A

1=C0MPLETED

2=N0T HOME

3=REFUSAI 4=N0 SUCH ADDRESS

5=ABAOT0NED

6=U;-.'D[.R COXi'l RUCTION

7=DEM0LIS11ED

3 = NEW STRUC l-URE /CO ERTED

9=L0BBY LOCKED

j 10=INCONVENIENT I TIMING

P PLASTER

V VINYL

G G'.'PSUM BOARD M MASONRY

T III E

H METAL

32

WALL CONDITION

1 GOOD

2 FAIR 2 POOR

4 BAD

5_ VERY BAD

WATER DAMAGE

Y SHOWS SIGNS

SURFACE £ PEELING

PAINT

c craX":ed , LOOSE OR BULGING PLASTER

B BROKEN

PLASTER, HOLES
Appendix B

4- Cumulative Distribution of Data from Washington, D.C. Pre-Survey

For each graph (a set of cumulative distribution functions) , there

is a corresponding table.

The graphs are presented as follows:

2 1. The horizontal axis shows lead levels from zero to 10.0 mg/cm .

2. The vertical axis shows the percent of population.

3. For each point on a curve the ordinate indicates the percentage

of surfaces in the population vjhich indicated a lead level less than

the value of the abscissa.

Figures 1-4, and 10 indicate that the older the unit, the higher

the lead content for each of the four selection criteria. Further,

figures 1 and 2 indicate relatively little variability of lead levels

in the newer dwelling units. Figures 1 and 3 indicate that trim

readings are higher than wall readings. Figures 1, 3, and 4 indicate that

lead content of painted surfaces within a dwelling unit vary considerably

in all age groups, but most markedly in the older units.

Figure 5 shows again that trim surfaces are higher in lead content

than wall surfaces and also that there is more variability among trim

areas than among wall surfaces.

Figures 6, 7, and 9 show that lead readings are highest in kitchens

and lowest in living rooms; bathrooms have intermediate readings. Figure

8 indicates that walls in bad condition are likely to have higher lead

content than walls in good condition.

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53
Appendix C

Sample Generator Program

This program generates 8191 triples, every triple being a set of

indices each of which is randomly selected, denoting respectively

page, column, and line of the city directory. Duplicates are removed

and the total sample is partitioned into an original sample (number of

entries as specified by the input parameter) and a set of 40-entry

samples. These samples are each presented in directory order in a

self-explanatory format.

In the listing used for illustration, the total sample is 1023

(rather than the 8191 specified in the program description; restoration

to 8191 requires changing lines 2, 3, and 4 to NO = 8190, Nl = 8191,

and N2 = 8192 respectively); the original sample has 320 entries; the

directory has names from page 6 through page 50, two columns, and 60

lines per column. In the last 40-entry sample, entries 10 through 40 are

identical and denote non-existent entries in the directory; an artificial

entry of 1023-7-511 arises as a result of discarding duplicate entries.

The remaining entries of the last sample constitute a valid 9-entry

sample.

54
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55
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?9 M7-1- 29 M6-2- 3? 18- 1 - ?9 l023-"-5? 1 3?

««0 M9 - 1 " 25 8 7 &f9» 1

«- 1 023-7-5 1

'^O

Q F i N

66
Appendix D - Edit

XRF readings are "corrected" according to the calibration parameters

(fields "ZERO" and "CALIBRATE" from the data collection form) of the

particular instrument used to collect the raw data. In addition, each

data field which appears (to the program) to be either in error within

itself or inconsistent with other data fields from the same form, is

printed as a computer output facsimile input record with indicators as

to the error suspected by the program.

The illustration is a test of twenty forms.

67
s?

oro «

ll. o

».»i^».».»-cr^lru^f^f^r«I^^^^^^^^ ^^ "C cc e - " " —

CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC croeccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc eccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc

tfottifc

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ft.er. i^rrc ccc — oc — — — — ^ — c^r <\.<\r(« r — — — ccc — - — cccecccccccccc-ccccccccccccccccccccwc cecccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc

»4 ^ M * ^

a. — — •-'••-•-•-CCC—CCCC'CC eocccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc ccccccctcccccccccccccccccccccccccccc cccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc

e e «r e

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it) csci»"irc.cv»_) — r-_i_jsC3-r-^<vj«vccec:c*ecircif <crwt-_>

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69
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83

Appendix E - Analysis (Histogram)

The cells which are fixed by the program consist of each possible

combination of age of unit and occupancy class as they are defined on

the data collection form plus totals and selected subtotals. Each

selection criterion causes the generation of sixty-eight histograms

plus summary statistics for each histogram.

85
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I I
Appendix F

Calibration of XRF Lead Detectors for the D.C. Pre-Survey

Peak Dial Setting

A. Unlock the "peak" dial. Using the manufacturer supplied leaded

block, arbitrarily select 4 settings which yield readings in

2 the neighborhood (+3 mg/cm ) of the reported level on the lead

block.

B. Find the arithmetic mean (average) of 3 readings at each of

the selected settings.

C. Lock the "peak" dial at that setting which yields the highest

mean

.

Example: Suppose the reported level of the supplied lead block

2 is 75 mg/cm and that between settings of 5.0 and 6.0,

2 the readings are in the neighborhood of 75 mg/cm .

Then, arbitrarily pick 4 settings (5.4, 5.5, 5.6, 5.7)

and compute the mean for 3 readings at each setting:

Setting 3 Readings Mean

Best

Setting

5.4 74.5 75.9 74.1 74.8

5.5 75.2 76.0 75.1 75.4 5.5

5.6 75.7 74.9 73.8

1 1 74.8

5.7 74.5 72.1 72.5 73.0

100
II. Zero Dial Setting

2 A. Unlock the "zero" dial. Using the 00 mg/cm block, locate an

arbitrary setting which yields a negative reading.

B. Arbitrarily select a second setting (near the first) which

yields a positive reading.

C. Select a setting between the two previously selected settings

which seems likely to give a reading close to zero. Lock in

on this setting.

D. Take ten readings at this setting and compute the mean.

Example: Readings are -.2 at 7.1 and +.3 at 7.2. Estimate

that 7.15 might yield a 0.0 reading. Thus, lock the

"zero" dial at 7.15 and take the mean of 10 readings

at that setting:

.5

1.0

.7.5

.7

.6

.3

-.2

;2

-.5

sum = 3.8

mean = .38 and rounds to .4

101
III. Calibrate Dial Setting

A. Unlock the "calibrate" dial and, using the leaded block included, pick an arbitrary setting which yields a reading lower

than the reported level of the block, but no lower than the

2 reported level minus 3 mg/cm .

B. Pick an arbitrary setting, above the first setting, which

yields a reading higher than the reported lead block level

2 but no higher than the reported level plus 3 mg/cm .

C. Lock the "calibrate" dial at a setting between the first two

settings, which is likely to yield a reading near the

lead block level. '

D. Take ten readings at this setting and compute the mean.

Example: Suppose the reported lead level of the supplied

2 block is 75 mg/cm . Readings are 77.2 at a setting

of .80 and 73.1 at a setting of .70. This pair of

readings satisfies the criteria specified in A.

and B. A calibrate dial setting of .75 is likely to

produce a reading near the lead block level of

2 75 mg/cm . Thus, the calibrate dial should be

locked at .75; ten readings should be taken and their

mean calculated.

102
77.0

77.2

76.2

76.2

75.6

76.4

75.9

76.6

77.3

77.5

sum = 765.9

irean = 76.59 and rounds to 76.6

The final (locked in) settings of each dial should be recorded

in the log book of the particular detector being calibrated. The

mean values for the "zero" and "calibrate" dials should be recorded in

the log book and in the required spaces on the survey forms . These

procedures should be carried out daily.

103
Appendix G - Resident Notification Letter

March 21, 1973

Mr. John Doe, or Present Occupant

22A 0 Street, N.W.

Any City, State Zip Code

Dear Sir:

Your home will be surveyed by two trained professionals from the Department of Health sometime between March 12 and March 30, 1973. They will

make measurements on interior walls, doors, and windows as well as painted exterior surfaces. The lead detector that they will be using

is safe, uses no chemicals, and leaves no marks of any kind on the surfaces measured.

Many dwelling units have one or more layers of lead paint on walls or woodwork. The lead containing layer need not be a surface coat in

order to be hazardous. When children eat even small quantities of

dried lead paint, either as chips pulled from walls or bitten off

windowsills and door edges, they risk serious illness, mental retardation and even death.

Your cooperation is requested whether or not you have children, or even

if you believe your home to be lead free.

Sincerely,

Lead Paint Poisoning Project

Department of Public Health

Any City, State Zip Code

Telephone:

104
References

1. Gilsinn, Judith F. , Estimates of the Nature and Extent of Lead Paint

Poisoning In The United States , NBS Technical Note 746.

2. Cochran, William G., Sampling Techniques , John Wiley and Sons, Inc.,

New York, 1953

3. Mihram, G. , Arthur, Simulation: Statistical Foundations and Methods , Academic Press, New York, 1972.

4. Hanson, Morris H. , Hurwitz, William U. , and Madow, William G., Sample

Survey Methods and Theory , Vol. I, Methods and Applications.

5. Spurgeon, Joe C., Response Characteristics of a Portable X-Ray

Fluorescence Lead Detector; Detection of Lead in Paint , NBSIR 73-231,

June, 1973.

105

pr.RM NBS-ll^A (1-71= _ , . . '

U.S. DtiP.. OF :OMM. 1. in:H^,lC.^^10\' n\{ RI-PORT no. 2. (.ov t Accession

BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA NBSIR 74-426

SHEET

3. Rccipiciu s Acc(.^..^Ion No.

4. Ti ri.i- AND SI' iv ! rn.L

Survey Plans and Data Collection and Analysis Methodologies:

Results of a Pre-Survey for the Magnitude and Extent of

the Lead Based Paint Hazard in Housing

5. Publication Dale

6. P{;rforming CVgani/r.t; on Code

7. Ain'HOR(S)

VJilliam Hall, Tyrone Ayers, Dwight Doxey

£! P<Tforming Organ i » a tion NBSIR 74-426

9. pi:rfokming organiz.ation namf. and address

national burlau of standards

department of commerce

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20234

10. Project/Task/Uork Unit No. 4314518

11. Contract/Grant No.

IAA-H-34-71

12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address

Office of Policy Development and Research

Department of Housing and Urban Development

13. Type of Report & Period

Covered

Final

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

16. ABSTR.'^CT (A lOO-word or less factual summary of most significant information. If document includes a significant

bibliography or Literature survey, mention it here.)

A pilot survey of housing in Washington, D.C. was carried out in order to develop

and test m.ethodologies , data collection procedures and formats that v?ill be used in

subsequent full scale surveys of cities to determine the magnitude and extent of the

lead-based paint hazard in housing.

On site raeasurements of lead contents of interior and exterior surfaces were

made (with portable x-ray fluorescence lead detectors, hereafter referred to as XRF's)

on 115 dwelling units which were randomly selected from a Washington, D.C. city

directory.

This report describes the procedures for identifying the survey sam^ple, drawing

the sample, and carrying out the survey. Computer programs for data handling and

analysis are included and a brief summary of the data obtained from the pilot survey

is presented.

17. KEY UORDS (Alphabetical order, separated by semicolons)

Housing; housing survey; lead; lead hazard; lead paint; lead poisoning; survey;

urban health problems.

18. AVAiLABlLITV STATEMENT

DTj UN1.IMH ED.

rj FOR OFFICIAL DISTRIBUTION. DO NOT RELEASE

TO NT IS.

19, SECURITY CLASS

(THIS REPORT)

UNCLASSIFIED

21. NO. OF PAGES

108

20. SECURITY CLASS

Cl'HI SPACE)

UNCL ASSII-IED

22. Pnce

USCOMW-CC 66244.P'71