NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

ADOPTION OF “SMART GROWTH” LAND USE POLICIES

RACM Analysis

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 1

Control Measure:

“Smart Growth“ is a generalized term used to describe policies that lead to 

compact development which result in increased walking and transit use and 

reduced auto trip making. The adoption of these policies is increasingly being 

presented as a possible way to help mitigate some of the congestion and 

pollution issue the state is facing. While such policies would result in some 

limited air quality benefits in the short term, more substantial changes would be 

seen in the longer term. New Jersey has adopted such policies as seen in the 

State Development and Redevelopment Plan and the NJ Transit/NJDOT initiative 

to create “Transit Villages.” Increasing the trend towards more compact forms of 

development will reduce Vehicle Trips (VT) and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) 

and therefore help to lower regional emissions.

Description:

“Smart Growth” is a policy framework consisting of many different elements 

which collective are all designed to produce more compact forms of urban 

development. This compact development encourages the increased use of the 

walk/bicycle modes for short distance trips, is more amenable to transit use and 

results in less auto travel due to reduced driving distances and more 

opportunities to work and shop closer to home. Since development is a slow and 

ongoing process, only a limited amount of impact can be achieved in the short 

term. 

Methodology:

The concept of smart growth has been investigated by the NJTPA using their 

regional transportation demand model. The model was run twice for 2025, once 

with development following more traditional, auto-oriented development patterns 

and once with development arranged more in line with basic smart growth 

principles. The difference between these two runs provides an estimate of the 

travel benefits resulting from these policies. Since land use policies take many

years to achieve, the modeling work was done for 2025, a reasonable time frame 

for such an analysis. 

Since a model run was not done for 2009, the benefits of the smart growth 

development were pro-rated to take into account the shorter timeframe and the 

time needed for these policies to begin having an effect. Even prorated this is a 

somewhat optimistic estimate as policies put in place today could take decades 

to come to fruition. 

Inputs/Assumptions:

 This analysis uses the results of NJTPA model runs completed specifically for 

the purpose of studying the benefits of compact development and smart 

growth
NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

ADOPTION OF “SMART GROWTH” LAND USE POLICIES

RACM Analysis

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 2

 VMTs and Emissions were calculated for 2025 using the PPSUITE software 

for summer weekday and annually for with and without smart growth 

development scenarios and emission factors developed

 To replicate 2009 evaluation scenario, the percentage difference in VMT 

between the development scenarios was calculated for 2025 and pro-rated to 

1/10th of that value to reflect the fact that only 4 years is available for these 

policies to take effect by 2009

 The 1/10th pro-rated percentage difference was then applied to 2009 without 

smart growth scenario VMT (calculated by interpolating between 2005 and 

2010 VMT obtained from PPSUITE software) to produce 2009 smart growth 

scenario VMT and the emissions are calculated for this VMT using the 

emission factors developed above

 The emission benefits are then determined between the scenarios for 2009

Results:

Ozone Analysis – Daily Benefits (tpd) in New Jersey:

Benefits 

(Reductions)

Ozone Non-Attainment Area

NY-NJ-CT PA-NJ-MD-DE

VMT 362,842 NA

VOC (Tons/Day) 0.46 NA

NOx (Tons/Day) 0.79 NA

PM2.5 Analysis – Annual Benefits (tpy) in New Jersey:

Benefits 

(Reductions)

PM2.5 Non-Attainment Area

NY-NJ-CT PA-NJ-DE

VMT 141,408,517 NA

NOx (Tons/Year) 162.93 NA

PM2.5 (Tons/Year) 3.59 NA

SO2 (Tons/Year) 1.28 NA
NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

ADOPTION OF “SMART GROWTH” LAND USE POLICIES

RACM Analysis

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 3

Ozone Analysis – Daily Benefits (tpd) by County:

Difference in VMT & Emissions

County VMT HC

(t/d)

NOX

(t/d)

Bergen 66,432 0.20 0.10

Essex 20,580 0.04 0.04

Hudson -2,490 -0.08 0.02

Hunterdon -67,176 -0.14 0.07

Middlesex 62,398 -0.07 0.28

Monmouth 76,058 0.14 0.11

Morris 164,139 0.35 0.03

Passaic 22,739 0.06 -0.03

Somerset -21,452 -0.17 0.01

Sussex 5,938 0.08 0.10

Union 35,677 0.05 0.05

Total 362,842 0.46 0.79

PM2.5 Analysis – Annual Benefits (tpy) by County:

Difference in VMT & Emissions between both the Scenarios

County VMT NOX

(t/y)

PM2.5

(t/y)

SO2

(t/y)

NH3

(t/y)

Bergen 19,756,415 29.35 0.22 0.16 2.22

Essex 6,706,550 18.84 0.12 0.06 0.73

Hudson -644,411 5.50 0.09 0.00 -0.12

Middlesex 18,826,708 46.33 1.22 0.20 1.63

Monmouth 26,235,140 45.21 0.94 0.25 2.63

Morris 59,153,848 20.96 0.78 0.50 6.61

Passaic 8,996,241 -17.41 -0.20 0.06 1.16

Somerset -7,599,728 8.88 0.25 -0.05 -1.04

Union 9,977,754 5.26 0.15 0.08 1.10

Total 141,408,517 162.93 3.59 1.28 14.91