**NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADOPTION OF “SMART GRO** **WTH” LAND USE POLICIES RACM Analysis** 

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 1 **Control Measure:** “Smart Growth“ is a generalized term used to describe policies that lead to compact development which result in increased walking and transit use and reduced auto trip making. T he adoption of these policies is increasingly being presented as a possible way to help mitigate some of the congestion and pollution issue the state is facing. W hile such policies would result in some limited air quality benefits in the short term, more substantial changes would be seen in the longer term. N ew Jersey has adopted such policies as seen in the State Development and Redevelopment Plan and the NJ Transit/NJDOT initiative to create “Transit Villages.” I ncreasing the trend towards more compact forms of development will reduce Vehicle Trips (VT) and Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) and therefore help to lower regional emissions. **Description:** “Smart Growth” is a policy framework consisting of many different elements which collective are all designed to produce more compact forms of urban development. Thi s compact development encourages the increased use of the walk/bicycle modes for short distance trips, is more amenable to transit use and results in less auto travel due to reduced driving distances and more opportunities to work and shop closer to home. Since development is a slow and ongoing process, only a limited amount of impact can be achieved in the short term. **Methodology :**  The concept of smart growth has been investigated by the NJTPA using their regional transportation demand model. The model was run twice for 2025, once with development following more traditional, auto
-oriented development patterns and once with development arranged more in line with basic smart growth principles. The difference between these two runs provides an estimate of the travel benefits resulting from these policies. S ince land use policies take many years to achieve, the modeling work was done for 2025, a reasonable time frame for such an analysis. Since a model run was not done for 2009, the benefits of the smart growth development were pro- rated to take into account the shorter timeframe and the time needed for these policies to begin having an effect. Even prorated this is a somewhat optimistic estimate as policies put in place today could take decades to come to fruition. **Inputs/A ssumptions:** 
 This analysis uses the results of NJTPA model runs completed specifically for the purpose of studying the benefits of compact development and smart growth**NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADOPTION OF “SMART GRO** **WTH” LAND USE POLICIES RACM Analysis** 

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 2  VMTs and Emissions were calculated for 2025 using the PPSUITE software for summer weekday and annually for with and without smart growth development scenarios and emission factors developed
 To replicate 2009 evaluation scenario, the percentage difference in VMT between the development scenarios was calculated for 2025 and pro- rated to 1/10th of that value to reflect the fact that only 4 years is available for these policies to take effect by 2009
 The 1/10th pro- rated percentage difference was then applied to 2009 without smart growth scenario VMT (calculated by interpolating between 2005 and 2010 VMT obtained from PPSUITE software) to produce 2009 smart growth scenario VMT and the emissions are calculated for this VMT using the emission factors developed above
 The emission benefits are then determined between the scen arios for 2009 **Results:** Ozone Analysis

– Daily Benefits (tpd) in New Jersey:

**Benefits (Reductions)**  **Ozone Non -** **At tainment A** **rea NY** **- NJ**  **- CT**  **PA -** **NJ -** **MD -** **DE VMT**  362,842 NA **VOC (Tons/Day )**  0.46 NA **NOx (Tons/Day** **)** 0.79 NA PM2.5 Analysis

– Annual Benefits (tpy) in New Jersey:

**Benefits (Reductions)**  **PM 2.5**  **Non -** **At tainment A** **rea NY** **- NJ**  **- CT**  **PA -** **NJ -** **DE VMT**  141,408,517 NA **NOx (Tons/Year)** 162.93 NA **PM2.5 (Tons/Year)** 3.59 NA **SO 2**  **(Tons/Year)** 1.28 NA**NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION ADOPTION OF “SMART GRO** **WTH” LAND USE POLICIES RACM Analysis** 

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 3 Ozone Analysis

– Daily Benefits (tpd) by County:
**D ifference in VMT & Emissions**  **County VMT**  **HC (t/d)**  **NOX (t/d)**  Bergen 66,432 0.20 0.10 Essex 20,580 0.04 0.04 Hudson -2,490
-0.08 0.02 Hunterdon -67,176
-0.14 0.07 Middlesex 62,398
-0.07 0.28 Monm outh 76,058 0.14 0.11 Morris 164,139 0.35 0.03 Passaic 22,739 0.06
-0.03 Som erset -21,452
-0.17 0.01 Sussex 5,938 0.08 0.10 Union 35,677 0.05 0.05 **Total 362,842**  **0.46 0.79**  PM2.5 Analysis

– Annual Benefits (tpy) by County:

**Difference in VMT & Emissions between both the Scenarios County**  **VMT NOX**  **(t/y) PM**  **2. 5** 

**(t/y) SO2** 

**(t/y) NH3** 

**(t/y)** Bergen 19,756,415 29.35 0.22 0.16 2.22 Essex 6,706,550 18.84 0.12 0.06 0.73 Hudson -644,411 5.50 0.09 0.00
-0.12 Middlesex 18,826,708 46.33 1.22 0.20 1.63 Monm outh 26,235,140 45.21 0.94 0.25 2.63 Morris 59,153,848 20.96 0. 78 0.50 6.61 Passaic 8,996,241
- 17.41
-0.20 0.06 1.16 Som erset -7,599,728 8.88 0.25
-0.05
- 1.04 Union 9,977,754 5.26 0.15 0.08 1.10 **Total 141,408,517**  **162.93 3.59**  **1.28 14.91**