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56–275 2010

S. HRG. 111–524 

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 2010 

HEARING 

BEFORE THE

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE 

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES 

ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS 

SECOND SESSION 

FEBRUARY 5, 2010 

Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee 

( 

(II) 

JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE 

[Created pursuant to Sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Congress] 

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES 

CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York, Chair 

MAURICE D. HINCHEY, New York 

BARON P. HILL, Indiana 

LORETTA SANCHEZ, California 

ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland 

VIC SNYDER, Arkansas 

KEVIN BRADY, Texas 

RON PAUL, Texas 

MICHAEL C. BURGESS, M.D., Texas 

JOHN CAMPBELL, California 

SENATE 

CHARLES E. SCHUMER, New York, Vice 

Chairman 

JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico 

AMY KLOBUCHAR, Minnesota 

ROBERT P. CASEY, JR., Pennsylvania 

JIM WEBB, Virginia 

MARK R. WARNER, Virginia 

SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas, Ranking Minority 

JIM DEMINT, South Carolina 

JAMES E. RISCH, Idaho 

ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah 

ANDREA P. CAMP, Executive Director 

JEFF SCHLAGENHAUF, Minority Staff Director 

(III) 

C O N T E N T S 

MEMBERS

Hon. Carolyn B. Maloney, Chair, a U.S. Representative from New York .......... 1 

Hon. Robert P. Casey, Jr., a U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania ............................ 3 

Hon. Elijah E. Cummings, a U.S. Representative from Maryland ...................... 4 

WITNESSES

Statement of Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Accompanied by: Mr. John Galvin, Associate Commissioner for Employment 

and Unemployment Statistics; and Mr. Phillip Rones, Deputy Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics ...................................................................... 5 

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD

Prepared statement of Representative Carolyn B. Maloney ................................ 20 

Prepared statement of Representative Kevin Brady ............................................ 20 

Prepared statement of Dr. Keith Hall, Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics, together with Press Release No. USDL–10–0141 ...................................... 22 

(1) 

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JANUARY 2010 

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2010 

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES, JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE, Washington, DC. 

The committee met, pursuant to call, at 9:30 a.m. in Room 216 

of the Hart Senate Office Building, The Honorable Carolyn B. 

Maloney (Chair) presiding. 

Representatives present: Maloney and Cummings. 

Senators present: Casey. 

Staff present: Brenda Arredondo, Andrea Camp, Gail Cohen, 

Colleen Healy, Annabelle Tamerjan, Andrew Wilson, Jane 

McCullogh, Jeff Schlagenhauf, Ted Boll, and Robert O’Quinn. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE CAROLYN B. 

MALONEY, CHAIR, A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM NEW YORK 

Chair Maloney. The meeting will come to order. My colleagues 

on the other side of the aisle, because of the snow, I have asked 

unanimous consent to have their statements placed in the record. 

Chair Maloney. We may have some others coming on the Democratic side, but many people have left because of the snow warning. 

Well first of all, what a difference a year makes. Today’s report 

from the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides further evidence that 

the labor market has stabilized and that we have turned a corner. 

The economy is no longer hemorrhaging jobs. In fact, the unemployment dropped to 9.7 percent, and employment was virtually 

unchanged, dropping by 20,000 jobs. 

Just over one year ago the current Administration took office, 

taking helm of a country suffering the worst crisis since the Great 

Depression. In fact, the Council of Economic Advisers Chair, Christina Romer, testified before this Committee that the shocks we endured during this recession were even greater than during the 

Great Depression. 

During the last three months of the Bush Administration we lost 

an average of 727,000 jobs per month. In contrast, during the most 

recent three months of the Obama Administration we lost an average of 35,000 jobs each month. We are definitely trending in the 

right direction. 

But there is no escaping the cruel math of recoveries. The recovery of the job market lags behind the recovery of the broader economy. Businesses must have more customers before they have more 

employees. However, thanks to the Recovery Act, which became 

law a year ago on February 17th, the economy is growing. 

2 

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that in the 

final quarter of 2009 the economy expanded at a rate of 5.7 percent. Average weekly hours are climbing, with indications that the 

manufacturing sector is driving that upward trend. Since June, the 

manufacturing workforce is up 1.2 hours, and job creation in the 

temporary help sector is a leading indicator of progress in the labor 

market. Since September, temporary help services have added 

274,000 jobs, 52,000 in January alone. 

Although the labor market appears to be stabilizing, too many 

Americans remain out of work. More than 15 million workers are 

unemployed. The overall unemployment rate masks how hard some 

groups have been hit. While the overall unemployment rate is 9.7, 

the unemployment rate is 16.5 percent for African Americans, and 

12.6 percent for Hispanics. 

Today’s Jobs Report makes it clear: We are making progress. But 

the road to recovery will be long, and it will not be easy. While we 

have brought the economy back from the brink, we are not yet 

where we need to be in terms of job creation. 

The mission is to create high-quality private-sector jobs. In the 

last year, Congress has enacted policies that support struggling 

families and encourage job creation. The $700 billion Recovery Act 

included a tax cut for 95 percent of American families and created 

jobs, while investing in clean energy technologies, infrastructure, 

and education. 

Last year we extended the $8,000 first-time home buyer’s credit 

that will help spur construction jobs. We extended a host of safety 

net programs that will help struggling families weather this economic storm. We extended the Net Operating Loss Carryback Provision that will help small businesses hire new employees. And we 

are boosting funding for small business loans via the Small Business Administration. 

In order to bring creative ideas on job creation to Congress, I 

started the year reaching out to CEOs of Fortune 100 companies 

and leaders of small businesses. I asked these employers to share 

new ideas on ways to create good private-sector jobs. 

In order to jumpstart job growth, I am introducing an Employer 

Tax Credit co-sponsored in the Senate by the JEC colleague who 

is sitting next to me, Senator Casey, and my fellow New Yorker 

Kirsten Gillibrand. This idea was suggested by several of the respondents to the survey. 

On Tuesday, February 9th, the Joint Economic Committee will 

hold a hearing to discuss job creation ideas from some of America’s 

best economists and business leaders. The hearing will include testimony from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf. A recent CBO study 

showed that an employer tax credit similar to the one in my bill 

is one of the most effective and efficient ways to spur job creation. 

I look forward to hearing from all of our witnesses today and at 

Tuesday’s hearing, and to hear their different perspectives. I encourage all to attend and to be there for Tuesday’s hearing. 

[The prepared statement of Representative Maloney appears in 

the Submissions for the Record on page 20.] 

Chair Maloney. I am pleased that my colleague, Congressman 

Cummings, is here. Senator Casey is recognized for five minutes. 

3 

OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE ROBERT P. 

CASEY, JR., A U.S. SENATOR FROM PENNSYLVANIA 

Senator Casey. Thank you. I want to thank our Chair for gathering us today, and for her comments about the challenges that are 

ahead of us. 

We are all gratified that the unemployment rate has come down 

from month to month. We do not know what that means yet, and 

we will be interested to hear some of the analysis about what it 

means. I do believe, though, that in places around the country people are still very, very worried, and there is a high degree of anxiety about what lies ahead. 

In Pennsylvania I know that when we looked at December numbers, 560,000 people are out of work in Pennsylvania, which translates into an 8.9 percent unemployment rate. Unfortunately, that 

number went up in December by 0.4 percent. 

And then when you look at individual communities, we have 14 

labor markets in our state and we had one that just went to 10 percent, Erie up in northwestern Pennsylvania. We do not know what 

this number that we are getting today means for the long term, but 

one thing I am sure of: We need a jobs bill passed as fast as possible. 

We need a bill that tackles a number of the problems that we 

are discussing today. One of the solutions to bringing this unemployment rate down over time I believe, as our Chair just stated 

and her good work on this is important, is to have a jobs creation 

tax credit. Economists from across the board have made it clear 

that it is the right thing to do. It is the fastest way to create jobs 

and to grow our Gross Domestic Product. 

This is not a theory. We have done it before. We passed a similar 

tax credit in the 1970s that created over 700,000 jobs, and a program which has widely been known to be under-advertised. If we 

could do that all those years ago without a lot of dissemination of 

information, I think a lot of employers would take advantage of 

this opportunity to create jobs literally in the next several months, 

not the next several years. 

So we have a real challenge ahead of us. You need only go to 

places like a jobs center. I was in a jobs center in Gettysburg, 

Pennsylvania, about 10 days ago now and met 8 unemployed Pennsylvanians out of the 560,000 who have yet to find work. You learn 

a lot by literally just listening to the struggles and the worries that 

people in our economy feel when they are out of work. 

Many of them in this group, and I think this is true across the 

board, tend to be over the age of 50, or over the age of 60, and feel 

that they not only have an economic challenge but sometimes are 

facing discrimination because of their age, but they obviously cannot prove that sometimes. But they feel it. And they fill out application after application, and not just 5 or 10, but 20, and 30, and 

50, and 100, and are either rejected outright or never hear back. 

We are going to continue to push forward to get a jobs bill 

passed; to continue every possible strategy to create jobs in the 

near-term. And I want to thank our Chair for getting us together 

today. 

Chair Maloney. I want to thank the Senator for his comments, 

particularly on creating new jobs. We passed a jobs bill in the 

4 

House earlier, so it is encouraging to hear the Senate is now taking 

up a focus on creating new jobs, the main focus of President 

Obama’s speech last night and recently. 

Congressman Cummings. 

OPENING STATEMENT OF THE HONORABLE ELIJAH E. 

CUMMINGS, A U.S. REPRESENTATIVE FROM MARYLAND 

Representative Cummings. Thank you very much, Madam 

Chair. 

I would like to associate myself with the words you stated and 

the statements of Senator Casey. 

After staggering job losses in 2008 and 2009, the national unemployment rate has inched lower for four months now, reaching 9.7 

percent today. I’ve got to tell you that I am glad that it did not go 

up, because if it had gone up we would have some naysayers on 

the other side talking about how bad things are. That is not to say 

that we do not have problems. 

As I have said many, many times: One job lost is one job too 

many. There are so many people who are suffering, and I just want 

to take the few moments that I have, Madam Chair, to urge our 

Republican colleagues to join in as we attempt to address this problem. 

You know people are unemployed in every district of our 435 

Congressional Districts. Last week the President was in Baltimore, 

and he did two things. One, he went to a company that manufactures all kinds of steel casings for things like water purification apparatus, and just did a lot of wonderful things. 

One of the things we found out there was that they have been 

getting some government contracts, and other contracts from the 

private sector, and they may very well be on the verge of hiring a 

few more people. It is not a tremendously large company, but when 

the President talked about a tax credit that you and Senator Casey 

talked about, Madam Chair, for employers to hire folks and to 

incentivize them to do that, you could tell that the owner of the 

company was simply delighted. 

There are so many businesses that are right on the verge of hiring people, it is just a hard decision. And I do not think it is the 

solution that is going to necessarily be the one silver bullet, but it 

is a part of a whole group of efforts that have been put forth on 

the part of the House, and I know will be put forth on the part of 

the Senate. But the thing that we have to do now is do what the 

President has said: 

Folks have got to put the partisanship aside, Madam Chair. As 

I say to my constituents, I tell them that we will get through the 

storm. This is the United States of America, and we have been 

through storms before. But the question is not whether we will get 

through the storm; the question is: After the storm is over, who 

will be living in your house? Who will have your job? Will you have 

your health? Will you have your health insurance? Will your children, when given the golden opportunity to go to school after they 

have worked hard and done everything they were supposed to do 

from kindergarten through the 12th grade and they bang on the 

door of college, will they have been able to go to college at that critical moment? Those are the questions. 

5 

And so I do believe that the things that we have been doing have 

been working. But in the words of the President, we can do better. 

We can do better. And I just take this moment to urge all of those 

people that may be listening to this to urge their Senators—09 be 

they Republican or Democrat, their Congressman, Republican or 

Democrat—to stand up for them. 

It is time the American people had people standing up for them, 

putting partisanship aside, so that they can live the best lives that 

they can. 

Finally, Madam Chair, we have one life to live. This is no dress 

rehearsal; this is life. This is it. Some people act like they’ve got 

a life next door, or they’ve got a life over there; no, no, no. This 

is it, right here. 

So I think it is our duty, when people go to the polls and they 

pull that lever, they are not pulling it so that we can win the next 

election in a few years. They pull it so that we could win the election that they are voting in, and so that we can immediately act, 

and they expect that of us, and nothing less. 

And so, on behalf of my constituents, I urge all of our colleagues 

to join together to address this issue, and I look forward to hearing 

from the witnesses, and with that I yield back. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you very much. 

Before we begin, I would like to ask unanimous consent to accept 

into the record written statements from any Member of this Committee. 

[The prepared statement of Representative Kevin Brady appears 

in the Submissions for the Record on page 20.] 

And now I would like to introduce Commissioner Hall. Dr. Keith 

Hall is the Commissioner of Labor Statistics for the U.S. Department of Labor. Prior to that he served as Chief Economist for the 

White House Council of Economic Advisers. And prior to that he 

was Chief Economist for the U.S. Department of Commerce. Dr. 

Hall also spent ten years at the U.S. International Trade Commission. 

Welcome, and we hope to hear some good news. 

STATEMENT OF DR. KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF 

LABOR STATISTICS; ACCOMPANIED BY: MR. JOHN GALVIN, 

ASSOCIATE COMMISSIONER FOR EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS; AND MR. PHILLIP RONES, DEPUTY 

COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS 

Commissioner Hall. Madam Chair, Members of the Committee, 

thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and unemployment data we released this morning. 

The unemployment rate declined from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January. Nonfarm Payroll Employment was essentially unchanged, 

and on net has shown little movement over the last three months. 

In January, job losses continued in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while employment increased in temporary 

help services and retail trade. 

With revisions released today, job losses since the start of the recession in December 2007 totaled 8.4 million, substantially more 

than previously reported. 

6 

Construction employment fell by 75,000 in January, about in line 

with the average monthly job loss in 2009. Nonresidential specialty 

trade contracting accounted for much of the over-the-month decline. The nonresidential components of construction have accounted for the majority of the industry’s job losses since early 

2009. 

Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by 

19,000 in January. The entire decline occurred in courier and messenger services, which laid off more workers than usual over the 

month. 

Employment in temporary help services grew by 52,000 over the 

month. This industry which provides workers to other businesses 

has added nearly a quarter of a million jobs since its recent low 

point last September. 

Following two months of little change, retail trade employment 

increased by 42,000 in January, with gains in several components. 

Health care employment continued to rise in January. Overall 

manufacturing employment was little changed, although motor vehicles and parts added 23,000 jobs. 

Since June, the manufacturing work week for all employees has 

increased by 1.2 hours. Federal Government employment rose in 

January, partly due to hiring for the decennial census. Employment in State and Local Governments, excluding education, continued to trend down over the month. 

Turning now to some measures from our Household Survey, both 

the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate declined in January. However, the share of those jobless for 27 weeks 

and over continued to rise. 

The employment-to-population ratio increased to 58.4 percent 

over the month. The number of persons working part-time who 

would have preferred full-time employment dropped from 9.2 to 8.3 

million, the lowest level in a year. 

Before closing, I would note that several changes were introduced 

today to The Employment Situation News Release Text and Tables. 

Three new Household Survey Tables provide information on the 

employment status of Veterans, persons with a disability, and the 

foreign-born population. In January the unemployment rate of Veterans from Gulf War Era II was 12.6 percent compared with 10.4 

percent for non-Veterans. 

Persons with a disability had a higher jobless rate than persons 

with no disability: 15.2 percent versus 10.4 percent. In addition, 

21.8 percent of persons with a disability were in the labor force, 

compared with 70 percent of persons without a disability. 

The unemployment rate for the foreign-born was 11.8 percent, 

and the rate for the native-born was 10.3 percent. The Establishment Survey Tables have been redesigned to include the addition 

to data on hours and earnings for all private-sector employees, as 

well as employment information for women. 

Women currently make up 49.9 percent of total non-farm payroll 

employment, compared with 48.8 percent when the recession began 

in December of 2007. Additional information about the new and redesigned tables is available on the BLS website. 

I would also note that there were annual adjustments to data 

from our two surveys. The Establishment Survey data released 

7 

today reflects the incorporation of annual benchmark revisions. 

Each year we re-anchor our sample-based survey estimates to a full 

universe count of employment primarily derived from administrative records of the Unemployment Insurance Tax System. Accounting for revisions during the benchmark and post-benchmark periods, the previously published level of nonfarm employment for December was revised downward by 1.4 million. Household Survey 

Data for January reflect updated population estimates from the 

U.S. Census Bureau. Further information about the impact of these 

adjustments is in our news release and on our website. 

Returning now to the Labor Market Data we released this morning, the jobless rate declined to 9.7 percent in January, and payroll 

employment was essentially unchanged. 

My colleagues and I would now be glad to answer your questions. 

[The prepared statement of Commissioner Hall appears in the 

Submissions for the Record on page 22.] 

Chair Maloney. Well thank you very much. What a difference 

a year makes. Can you point to any particularly encouraging bright 

spots in this month’s labor report? 

Commissioner Hall. I would say there are several things worth 

mentioning. 

First of course is that the unemployment rate went from 10.0 to 

9.7 percent. Also in a related thing, people who are part-time for 

economic reasons declined this month. So what that means is our 

broadest measure of labor underutilization, those who are unemployed plus those who are marginally attached plus those who are 

part-time who want to be full-time, that declined from 17.3 to 16.5 

percent. That is a drop of .8 percentage points. That was a nice 

sign. 

Temporary help has added almost a quarter of a million jobs over 

the past four months. Quite often that is a leading indicator of 

strengthening in the labor market. 

Manufacturing work week now increased .3 hours this month, 

and 1.2 hours since June. That also is a leading indicator of it is 

an indicator of strengthening in the labor market. 

And then of course there are a number of other there is some 

other non-labor market data I think that indicates that there may 

be some signs of strengthening in the labor market. 

Chair Maloney. Could you comment on any further indicators 

that overall job losses will continue to slow and turn positive in the 

coming months? 

Commissioner Hall. Without speculating too much, obviously 

the temporary help and the manufacturing work week are both 

considered leading indicators of a strengthening labor market. I actually think some of the other data the GDP number that just 

came out, although most of that growth in GDP was from inventories, a good portion of it was actually equipment and software investment. Which if you look at that, that actually tracks very nicely with payroll jobs. In other words, when firms bring back invest 

in equipment and software, they also tend to bring back employees. 

I think the industrial production numbers are also signaling potentially a strengthening labor market. 

Chair Maloney. Some economists have estimated that we need 

to grow our jobs just to meet the new demand for jobs that they 

8 

estimate is between 100- to 150,000 new payroll jobs. I would like 

you to comment on that. And what rate is needed to lower the unemployment rate to what it was in 2007 before the recession began, 

at 4.7 percent? 

Commissioner Hall. The number of 100- to 150,000, that seems 

about accurate for payroll job growth that would keep up with population growth. 

Going forward, if the labor market continues to improve we expect people to re-enter the labor force. So actually we might hope 

to get stronger payroll job growth than 100- to 150,000. We would 

probably need stronger than that to have the unemployment rate 

drop in the next few months. 

Chair Maloney. Well as you said, some workers are likely to reenter the labor force because they see greater promise of finding a 

job now with these numbers. That is good and encouraging. But 

isn’t it true that those workers’ re-entry into the labor market will 

bump the unemployment rate upwards? 

Commissioner Hall. It often does, yes. If the labor market continues to strengthen, in the past certainly what’s happened is an 

increase in the labor force has caused the unemployment rate to 

bump up temporarily. 

Chair Maloney. Well how big a factor is it in bumping up the 

unemployment? 

Commissioner Hall. It certainly has done that in the past. This 

particular time we have got a particularly high potential for that 

because so many people are unemployed and we’ve lost so many 

people out of the labor force. It is one of those things where I would 

say that as we go forward, if we start to see real improvement we 

should not get too concerned if the unemployment rate hits a bit 

of a speed bump and goes up for a couple of months. 

Chair Maloney. Great. My time has expired. 

Senator Casey. 

Senator Casey. Thank you very much. 

I wanted, just preliminarily, to make a comment about where we 

are and where we have been. I know, Commissioner, you are not 

allowed to make the kind of comments that I will make, but I think 

it is important to put it in the record. 

We have had a lot of folks in Washington denigrating the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the so-called Stimulus Bill, 

but I think the facts are pretty clear right now that prior to the 

Recovery Bill we were losing, between December and March, every 

single month for four months, at least 600,000 jobs. And in January of 2009, 741,000 jobs. 

Here we are a little more than a year later from January, and 

we lost and, I want to make sure the number is right, this month, 

is it 20,000? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Casey. 20,000 jobs lost. Last month was what? 

Commissioner Hall. 150,000. 

Senator Casey. 150,000. So at least we are moving in the right 

direction. I think a strong case can be made that the Recovery Bill 

is having and has had a positive impact, and is at least any fairminded person would say, is beginning to work. So that is I think 

important to put on the record. 

9 

But I did want to note in terms of the individual groups or demographic groups that we look at here, I wanted to highlight one segment, one part of our population where the number actually went 

up, African Americans. The unemployment rate went up to 16.5? 

Is that right? 

Commissioner Hall. That is correct. 

Senator Casey. And that was up .3 percent? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Casey. The only group I guess among if you look at in 

terms of just groups, whether it is adult women, adult men, teenagers, White Americans the Hispanic unemployment rate was 12.6? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Senator Casey. So one of the only groups, if not the only group, 

where the number went up was for African Americans? Is that correct? 

Commissioner Hall. I believe that’s correct. I’m not sure that 

number was statistically significant, though. 

Senator Casey. Okay. In terms of it being not necessarily a 

trend? 

Commissioner Hall. Correct. I think the uncertainty in that 

number is relatively large. 

Senator Casey. Okay. And why is that? Because sometimes 

with a group it is harder to get an accurate read just from. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. Our sample size is a little bit smaller. 

We over-sample the group relative to the population, but it is still 

not as large a sample as say the overall number. 

Senator Casey. We of course hope you are wrong about this. We 

hope the number is stabilized for African Americans, or going 

down. 

The other point that I wanted to highlight is the new data. I 

think it is pretty significant that you are now tracking Veterans 

and persons with disabilities. The Veteran number I wanted to 

make sure I had right. This would be Veterans for let me just have 

you say it Veterans since the Gulf War? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes, the Gulf War Era II, so that is since 

September 11. 

Senator Casey. Okay. And that number is what? 

Commissioner Hall. That number was 12.6 percent. 

Senator Casey. Do you know what that works out to be in a 

total number? 

Commissioner Hall. In terms of the number of unemployed? 

Senator Casey. Unemployed Veterans. 

Commissioner Hall. It is about 213,000. 

Senator Casey. That is a big number. And I guess—and I have 

only got a minute left, but if you are able to speak with great 

speed. Are there data points here that indicate that there are sectors that are growing that we should be encouraged by? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. The short answer is yes. I think one 

notable one is that we actually gained 11,000 jobs in manufacturing. 

Senator Casey. A net gain in manufacturing? 

Commissioner Hall. A net gain in manufacturing. And this is 

the first net gain we have had in three years in manufacturing. So 

that actually was notable. 

10 

Senator Casey. The first time in three years in a monthly number? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. That’s correct. 

Senator Casey. Okay. 

Commissioner Hall. So that is encouraging. Professional Business Services seems to be back, especially with Temporary Help. 

And of course the Health and Education are continuing to grow. 

Most of the job loss right now is centered in construction. We lost 

75,000 jobs in construction, which is in fact more of the overall loss 

of 20,000. So we actually had net gains overall outside of construction. 

Senator Casey. Thank you. 

Chair Maloney. Congressman Cummings. 

Representative Cummings. Let’s go to the African American 

numbers. You said that it is possible that the numbers might not 

be as bad as they appear? Is that right? 

Commissioner Hall. Just because it is a relatively it is a smaller sample, so there might be some fluctuation that is due to our 

measurement rather than actual changes in the unemployment 

rate. 

Representative Cummings. Well if I were to guess, I believe 

they would be higher. Because I think you have a lot of when I go 

to my District, if I went there right now, 40 miles away from here, 

you would see a lot of African American men just riding through 

my neighborhood who are unemployed, and I do not know whether 

their numbers are even registered here. I would venture to guess 

that there are parts of my District where the African American 

male unemployment rate is 45 to 50 percent. 

So I just do not know how we I know you look at stats. As you 

were talking I was thinking about the Census and how people get 

left out of the Census, not necessarily because of government, government’s fault, but they just never get counted. And so I just do 

you want to comment on what I just said? 

Commissioner Hall. Well, sure. One thing I think we know for 

sure is the unemployment rate is very high. It is very high relative 

to other groups. When I talked about the .3 increase, I was just 

talking about the monthly change, but it is absolutely true that 

this is a high number and it has well more than doubled since before the Recession started. 

Perhaps a bit of what you are seeing as well is discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor force, and that would not 

be reflected in this 16.5 percent number. 

Representative Cummings. Now if the President were to call 

you as soon as you got out of this hearing and ask you for a 30- 

second explanation, bottom line, on what you have said, a summary 

of what we have got here today, and he said: Where does it look 

like we are going? And I know you are limited with your opinions 

even with the President, but would you share what you can with 

us? 

Commissioner Hall. I’ll tell you where I see we have come to. 

Representative Cummings. All right, Mr. President, go ahead. 

Commissioner Hall. The past three months we have had essentially no change in the payroll jobs, which is a dramatic improvement over earlier in the year. And there are lots of indications in 

11 

this data that, with Temporary Help and Hours Worked, that the 

labor market may be tightening up which, if that continued, would 

be encouraging for job growth going forward. 

Representative Cummings. Now has there been any 

discernable trend of jobs moving from unskilled labor to skilled 

labor, or vice versa, in past recessions? Did we experience any sort 

of shift like that? And how about this one? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. This Recession was notable because 

the job loss was significant across all groups: Skilled, Unskilled. So 

it was a very, very broad job loss. Other recessions have been a little bit more centered in particular industries, particular occupations, than this particular Recession. 

Then of course this Recession has just been so deep. We have 

had so much job loss that one of the very interesting things will 

be when we come to recovery how quickly recovery comes and how 

broad it will be. But in terms of this Recession, there is no real pattern in the Skilled/Unskilled yet at this point. 

Representative Cummings. Now the Labor Department reported yesterday that worker productivity increased 6.4 percent in 

the fourth quarter as companies did more for less. Are these productivity gains centered in certain sectors? Or is that happening 

across the board? Or would you have an opinion on that? 

Commissioner Hall. It is pretty across the board. We don’t 

have a lot of breakout on industries on that monthly data, but it 

is across the board. And that actually is a very good sign. Strong 

productivity growth in the past has been associated with early 

stages of an economic recovery. And I think one thing that was notable about that particular release, we have had about three 

months of very strong productivity growth, but this is the first 

month where we had strong productivity growth and an increase 

in hours worked. 

Representative Cummings. So what does that mean? 

Commissioner Hall. Well in the prior month we had strong 

productivity but it was because output dropped by less than hours 

dropped. So a sort of strong productivity in sort of a negative way. 

And this last release was strong productivity in sort of a positive 

way. 

Representative Cummings. So Americans are working hard? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Cummings. If they can get a job. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you. 

Chair Maloney. Yes. That is a strong statement, Congressman, 

and it is very true. 

Commissioner Hall, several months ago the BLS released its Employment Projects for the years 2008 to 2018. What does the BLS 

project as the largest growth sector in employment over the coming 

years? Where do you see the job growth? And is this different from 

past projections? 

Commissioner Hall. I will mention some of the broad numbers. 

Our projections are that the Service Providing Sector will have 

something like 96 percent of the job growth. When I say Service 

Providing Sector, I don’t mean service occupations, but I mean 

service industries. And that is consistent with the past. 

12 

We expect the largest employment growth in Professional Business Services, and in Health and Social Systems, in particular. And 

that is also fairly consistent I think with our past forecasts. 

Inside that, the more detailed industries, we’re talking about industries like management, scientific and technical consulting, computer system design, employment services, some industries like 

that. 

Chair Maloney. And how do these projections differ from the 

private sector projections that you read about every now and then? 

Commissioner Hall. Well one of the things we are doing here 

is, and Jack can maybe talk about this a little bit as well, one of 

the things we are doing here is we are projecting from inside of a 

Recession right now. 

So one of the big reasons our numbers now change from the last 

projection is we are looking past the Recession. So a lot of these 

numbers are looking at recovery out of the Recession in addition 

to sort of normal economic growth afterwards. 

Do you want to add anything, Jack? 

Mr. Galvin. I would say our projections do not differ from private sector projections. In fact, they typically use the same methodology that we use for ours. 

Chair Maloney. Okay. Great. I am concerned about the duration of unemployment. The duration of unemployment has been 

longer in this recession. Is there a relationship between this long 

period of unemployment and compensation and degree of probability of being employed? 

Could you comment on this duration of unemployment that has 

increased in this recession? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. Unfortunately there does seem to be 

pretty strong evidence that the longer the duration of unemployment, the lower the probability of being rehired. 

Chair Maloney. Is this different from prior recessions? In prior 

recessions have we had these long periods of unemployment? 

Commissioner Hall. No. This is by far the worst Recession with 

respect to duration of unemployment. The long-term unemployed, 

for six months or more, started at a higher level at the beginning 

of this Recession, and it has been at record levels now for several 

months. Unfortunately in past recessions the long-term unemployed typically grows well into the recovery. 

Chair Maloney. Well, could you tell us anything about the demographic characteristics of the long-term unemployed? Are there 

characteristics in terms of educational attainment, in terms of any 

category? 

Commissioner Hall. We may have to get back to you on the details oh, okay. We do have something. I’m sorry. 

The duration is particularly high in of the long-term unemployed, 

certain demographic groups are over-represented. For example, 

those without a high school diploma are over-represented in longterm unemployed. African Americans are over-represented in longterm unemployed. Even those with a high school diploma but no 

college are over-represented in the long-term unemployed. 

Chair Maloney. My time is expired. Congressman Cummings. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you, Madam Chair. 

13 

One of the features often cited about this Recession has been the 

fall in consumer spending, which is itself linked to consumer confidence. How does the fall in overall consumer demand show up in 

your data? 

Commissioner Hall. I would say consumer spending is really 

the driver behind GDP, and it is really the driver behind employment. During normal expansions, the growth in consumer spending 

is roughly in line with the growth of GDP. So without a strong recovery in consumer spending, and hopefully with consumer confidence and then consumer spending, we just are not going to see 

a strong recovery. So it is critical. 

Representative Cummings. Now when we got the information 

a few days ago that when we got the very good numbers on the 

GDP—— 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Cummings [continuing]. I mean do you see a 

correlation between those numbers and what you found in your report? 

Commissioner Hall. Actually a lot of the GDP let me just say, 

a lot of the GDP growth was from inventory. So the 5.7, while it 

was a good number, a good portion of that was from inventory 

buildup which actually may be an indication of future growth, but 

it is not an indication of current demand. That current demand has 

not fully recovered yet. 

But outside of inventories, GDP did grow about 2.2 percent, 

which is reasonable growth. And that is consistent, if that continues to grow at 2.2 percent or more that is consistent with payroll job growth. 

Representative Cummings. Now we saw with Ford—I am 

going to go into cars now—we saw with Ford that they had a significant rise in cars sold. We also saw that with GM. And one of 

the things that we were concerned about was that after the Cash 

for Clunkers sales were over that there might be just a slight 

bump-up in manufacturing of automobiles, but a lot of us were concerned that that would not last very long. 

Can you tell from your research how we are. Do we see a trend 

there? In other words, are people, generally it seems like they are 

buying cars and decided that, you know what, although I may not 

have bought one during the Cash for Clunkers I am going to get 

a car I feel a little bit better about my situation. I mean, what are 

you finding there? 

Commissioner Hall. Well, actually, this month motor vehicles 

and parts, the jobs grew by about 23,000, which actually accounted 

for all, more than all of the manufacturing job growth. 

Representative Cummings. So that is very significant, isn’t it? 

Commissioner Hall. It is only one month, but that was a nice 

bump-up in employment. 

Representative Cummings. Well let me ask you as just sort of 

a general question. The month of January from year to year has 

certain unique characteristics. For example, it is coming after the 

Christmas season. It is the first month of the year. And maybe people are getting off to new starts with certain types of things. Do 

you find, when you look at those numbers, now going back to cars, 

when you look at those numbers is that surprising to you at all, 

14 

considering what we have seen in the past for January? And I 

know we are in a recession; I understand that. 

Commissioner Hall. That gain in 23,000 jobs is in fact taking 

into account the normal seasonal patterns in motor vehicles. So 

when we say 23,000, we mean relative to what we expect normally 

for January of this year. So I would say the answer is, yes. 

Representative Cummings. So in other words, if we were not 

in a Recession you would expect 23,000 new jobs? Is that what you 

are saying? 

Commissioner Hall. No. Well, I think to be honest the expectation I am not sure what the expectation was for motor vehicles particularly, but the way we calculate these numbers is we have 

23,000 more jobs than we would have normally expected. 

Representative Cummings. I see. I see. So you are saying the 

opposite of what I just said. 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Cummings. So we should feel I take it, then, 

and I know you are limited to your opinions and everything but I 

am sure that makes you, if somebody were to ask you outside of 

your position, and said how do you feel about that, Hall? I guess 

you would say you felt pretty good, huh? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. Although I would caution, as I did, 

that it is only one month. 

Representative Cummings. Right. 

Commissioner Hall. But it was growth in jobs in motor vehicles 

and parts. 

Representative Cummings. Thank you, Madam Chair. 

Chair Maloney. Thank you. 

Commissioner Hall, temporary help is often an indicator of an 

employer’s willingness to hire more employees. Could you comment 

on the Temporary Help numbers and any trends you see over the 

past several months? 

Commissioner Hall. Sure. The Temporary Help industry has 

been and continues to be a leading indicator. For example, before 

we went into the Recession, Temporary Help Services job growth 

started to decline nine or ten months ahead of the Recession. So 

it actually did signal, early on, that we were coming into an economic slowdown. 

And in past recessions, a pickup in Temporary Help Services has 

preceded a pickup in payroll job growth. So the fact that Temporary Help Services added 52,000 jobs this month, and a quarter 

million over the past four months or so, I would consider to be an 

indicator of potential payroll job growth in the future. 

Chair Maloney. Could you comment on how women have fared 

in this recession? You testified earlier that women employees are 

up from 48.8 to 49.9 percent. Could you comment on this trend? Do 

you see that more women may be employed in this Recession than 

men? In what industries are they employed? In what industries are 

they losing or gaining jobs? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. Men have lost jobs relative to women 

something like 2 to 3 to 1. And you are right, women now make 

up about 49.9 percent of the payroll jobs in the economy. And it 

is possible. We are within probably 350,000, give or take the number of women employed are within 350,000 of the number of men 

15 

employed right now. So actually it still is potentially possible that 

the number of women in the payroll jobs could exceed the number 

of men in payroll jobs at some point. 

But women have also participated in the job loss, though, in this 

Recession. That is not to say that they have not lost jobs. Women 

have lost literally 2.6 million jobs out of the 8.4 million during this 

Recession so far. They have lost particularly notable in say Professional and Business Services. Actually, Education and Health Services, and Financial Activities forget the Education and Health, I’m 

sorry Financial Activities. In fact, more women have lost jobs in 

the Financial Activities than men have, which is kind of interesting. 

Chair Maloney. Well thank you for tracking that information. 

I would like to ask a few questions about my home state of New 

York. In New York City, unemployment rose to 10.6 percent in December. This is a jump of 3.6 points from last December. Is this in 

tune with other states, and the overall national average? Are these 

changes similar to the changes taking place on national unemployment? 

Commissioner Hall. I know historically the State of New York 

has had a very similar pattern during a recession as the United 

States as a whole, I think because it’s a very diverse economy. And 

I think that is roughly what we have seen during this Recession 

with New York. The numbers have been fairly similar to the overall numbers for the United States. 

Chair Maloney. What about Manhattan, which is very dependent on Financial Service jobs? Given the economy, has it had a particularly hard blow? Or is it in tune with the national average? 

Commissioner Hall. I don’t have Manhattan with me. I can tell 

you about New York state. New York has lost about 50,000 jobs in 

Financial Activities since the start of the Recession, so New York 

has been particularly hit by the Financial Activities downturn. 

Chair Maloney. My time has expired. Congressman Cummings. 

Representative Cummings. Yesterday a New York Times reporter had asked me, Mr. Hall, about the whole idea of African 

American unemployment being there being such a gap between 

overall unemployment and African American unemployment, and 

whether special things ought to be done. 

I am not going to ask you your opinion on that, I just want to 

know, it appears that there is an increase in the gap between overall unemployment and African American unemployment. Is that accurate? 

Commissioner Hall. That is. And it has grown during the Recession, and unfortunately it actually grows during every Recession. 

Representative Cummings. Is that right? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. 

Representative Cummings. And do we have an explanation for 

that? 

Commissioner Hall. I don’t. I don’t. There’s probably some research on that, but I’m not familiar with it. 

Representative Cummings. Now what changes in the makeup 

of the labor force can you identify in terms of gender, race, or age? 

And tell me who is entering the labor force, and who is leaving, 

16 

and what is the significance of those changes? Can you answer 

those questions? Changes in the makeup of the labor force. In other 

words, we have people who are leaving the labor force, and there 

are people who are entering. 

For example, you have got, I assume, while all the reports are 

saying that more and more people are staying in school because 

many of them feel they can’t find jobs, so I’m just wondering do we 

have any stats on who is entering, and at what rate, and who is 

leaving? Are you following me? 

Mr. Rones, how are you? 

Mr. Rones. Okay. Fine, thank you. The first thing I would say, 

the most important trend in terms of the labor force is that older 

workers are actually older workers’ labor force participation has 

been going up, and actually started going up well before the Recession and has continued to go up. And that is at the same time that 

labor force participation has gone down for pretty much every other 

group. 

Now a lot of that is, again, part of a long-term trend. Part of it 

is also because of course a lot of people lost much of their assets 

through the stock market fall, as well as the housing market fall. 

So there are some structural things going on there, as well as some 

things related to the downturn. 

We have not seen, as you discussed before, we have not seen a 

lot of people coming back into the labor force, which you might see 

as people start getting more confident. At some point you would expect to see that, as it goes hand in hand with job creation. As the 

jobs show up, people hear that someone is hiring. They start looking for work, and the labor force grows. But we are not really there 

yet. 

Representative Cummings. Now based on what you have observed, Commissioner, in earlier iterations of the Decennial Census, do you anticipate any net job creation effect in government hiring attributable to the Census? 

Commissioner Hall. Absolutely we should. In fact, this month 

we added about 10,000 Federal Government jobs from the Census. 

And in coming months, I think their total hiring yes, we should get 

at least about a half a million added to the government jobs when 

the Census fully hires up. 

Representative Cummings. About a half a million? 

Commissioner Hall. Yes. And that actually might have a measurable effect on the unemployment rate. It might go down a little 

bit. 

Representative Cummings. So is that a usual trend, Mr. Hall? 

That is, that there is some slight impact on the unemployment rate 

because of the Census? That is not unusual, is what you’re saying? 

Commissioner Hall. No, that is normal. 

Representative Cummings. Now do we see any geographic 

changes with regard to job losses? In other words, are there certain 

parts of the Nation that seem to be suffering more job losses disproportionately than others? 

Commissioner Hall. You know, the job losses have been very 

spread out, but it certainly is true that certain states had higher 

unemployment rates and they had higher increases in unemployVerDate Nov 24 2008 11:03 Jun 28, 2010 Jkt 055916 PO 00000 Frm 00020 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C:\DOCS\56275.TXT SHAUN PsN: DPROCT
17 

ment. It is a little hard to talk about because it is not so much regional as it is with specific states. 

Representative Cummings. I see. All right. Thank you very 

much. 

Chair Maloney. Many of my colleagues have left because Washington is getting ready for a huge snow storm. We are very grateful, Commissioner Hall, that you have weathered this storm to be 

here today and give us the Jobs Report. 

Weather aside, it appears that we are trending in the right direction. We no longer are facing an avalanche of job losses. We thank 

you for your hard work and for being here today. 

This meeting is adjourned. 

[Whereupon, at 10:26 a.m., Friday, January 5, 2010, the hearing 

was adjourned.] 

(19) 

SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD 

20 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE CAROLYN MALONEY, CHAIR, JOINT

ECONOMIC COMMITTEE

Today’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides further evidence that 

the labor market has stabilized and we have turned a corner. The economy is no 

longer hemorrhaging jobs. In fact, the unemployment rate dropped to 9.7 percent, 

and employment was virtually unchanged, dropping by 20,000 jobs. 

Just over one year ago, the current Administration took office, taking helm of a 

country suffering the worst crisis since the Great Depression. In fact, Council of 

Economic Advisers Chair Christina Romer testified to the Joint Economic Committee that the shocks we endured in this ‘‘Great Recession’’ were actually worse 

than those of the Great Depression. 

During the last three months of the Bush administration, we lost an average of 

727,000 jobs per month. In contrast, during the most recent 3 months of the Obama 

administration, we lost an average of 35,000 jobs each month. The trend is heading 

in the right direction. 

But, there is no escaping the cruel math of recoveries. The recovery of the job 

market lags behind the recovery of the broader economy. Businesses must have 

more customers before they add employees. 

However, thanks to the Recovery Act, which became law a year ago February 17, 

the economy is growing. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that 

in the final quarter of 2009, the economy expanded at a rate of 5.7 percent. 

Average weekly hours are climbing, with indications that the manufacturing sector is driving that upward trend. Since June, the manufacturing workweek is up 

1.2 hours. And, job creation in the temporary help sector is a leading indicator of 

progress in the labor market. Since September, temporary help services has added 

247,000 jobs—52,000 in January alone. 

Although the labor market appears to be stabilizing, too many Americans remain 

out of work. More than 15 million workers are unemployed. The overall unemployment rate masks how hard some groups have been hit—while the overall unemployment rate is 9.7 percent, the unemployment rate is 16.5 percent and 12.6 percent, 

for African Americans and Hispanics, respectively. 

Today’s jobs report makes it clear—we are making progress, but the road to recovery will be long, and it will not be easy. While we have brought the economy back 

from the brink, we are not yet where we need to be in terms of job creation. The 

mission is to create high-quality private-sector jobs. 

In the last year, Congress has enacted policies that support struggling families and encourage job creation. The $700 billion Recovery Act included a tax cut for 95 

percent of American families and created jobs while investing in clean energy technologies, infrastructure, and education. Last year, we extended the $8,000 first-time homebuyers credit that will spur construction jobs. We extended a host of safety net programs that will help struggling 

families weather the economic storm. We extended the net operating loss carry-back 

provision that will help small businesses hire new employees. And we are boosting 

funding for small business loans via the Small Business Administration. 

In order to bring creative ideas on job creation to Congress, I started the year 

reaching out to CEOs of Fortune 100 companies and leaders of small businesses. 

I asked these employers to share new ideas on ways to create jobs. 

In order to jump-start job growth, I am introducing an employer tax credit (cosponsored in the Senate by my JEC colleague Senator Casey and my fellow New 

Yorker, Senator Gillibrand). This idea was suggested by several of the respondents 

to our survey. 

On Tuesday, February 9, the Joint Economic Committee will hold a hearing to 

discuss job creation ideas from some of America’s best economists and business leaders. The hearing will include testimony from CBO Director Doug Elmendorf. A recent 

CBO study showed that an employer tax credit similar to the one in my bill is one 

of the most effective and efficient ways of spurring hiring. I look forward to hearing 

from all our witnesses at the Tuesday’s hearing and look forward to the different 

perspectives they will bring—especially their views on lessons learned about creating jobs in previous recessions and economic expansions. 

I encourage you all to attend next Tuesday’s hearing. 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE KEVIN BRADY, SENIOR HOUSE

REPUBLICAN

I am pleased once again to join in welcoming Dr. Hall before the Committee this 

morning. 

21 

Today’s employment report is still bad news for American workers. Payroll employment fell by 20,000. Although the unemployment rate fell to 9.7 percent, largely 

due to more workers reporting part-time jobs, the number of long-term unemployed 

workers reached an all-time high of 6.3 million. And today we learned that job 

losses were 902,000 higher during 2009 than previously estimated. 

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP grew at an 

annualized rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009. While this is an improvement over the 2.2 percent rate in the third quarter, more than 57 percent of 

real GDP growth in the fourth quarter was due to a one-off restocking of inventory. 

The fourth quarter spike reveals how deeply businesses emptied their shelves last 

year but gives no indication they are confident in bringing workers back or hiring 

new ones. Real final sales, which are a better measure of the underlying trend in 

real GDP than the headline number, rose by only 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter 

of 2009. 

The Blue Chip consensus forecast of private economists is that real GDP will grow 

by 2.8 percent in 2010. Unfortunately, such modest growth cannot support vigorous 

job creation and a rapid reduction of the unemployment rate. Indeed, the most recent Blue Chip consensus forecast is that the unemployment rate will average 9.8 

percent in the fourth quarter of 2010. 

Normally, economists would expect two years of rapid economic growth following 

a severe recession. Unfortunately for American workers and their families, the current economic recovery is fighting the headwinds of excessive government spending 

and debt, the prospect of higher income taxes in the near future, and uncertainty 

over the future of health care and ‘‘cap and trade’’ legislation. 

Let’s compare the recovery after the recession that began in December 2007 with 

the recovery after the August 1981 to November 1982 recession, which is similar 

in depth and length to the recent recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research has not yet determined the official bottom for the recent recession. However, 

industrial production hit its bottom in June 2009, and real GDP began to grow in 

July 2009. So, until the National Bureau of Economic Research makes its official 

determination, let’s assume that the bottom of the recent recession occurred in June 

2009. 

Comparing the Reagan and Obama recoveries so far, we find: 

• The average annualized rate of real GDP growth was 7.2 percent in the first 

two full quarters of the Reagan recovery compared with 4.0 percent in the first 

two full quarters of the Obama recovery. 

• During the first seven months of the Reagan recovery, payroll employment had 

increased by 1.2 million jobs, while during the first seven months of the Obama 

recovery payroll employment fell by 1.1 million jobs. 

Looking ahead, the contrast between the Reagan and Obama recoveries becomes 

increasingly stark. Fifteen months into the Reagan recovery, payroll employment 

had increased by 4.4 million jobs, and the unemployment rate had fallen by a full 

3.0 percentage points to 7.8 percent. By October 2010, at the same point in the 

Obama recovery, the unemployment rate is forecast to be 9.8 percent, a full 2 percentage points higher. 

If we want American workers and their families to enjoy robust job growth, Washington needs to put aside partisan blinders and re-examine what economic policies 

have worked in the past to increase confidence and foster job-creating investment 

and what policies have not. I encourage President Obama to study the successful 

economic policies of John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, and, for the sake of our 

country, to make a mid-course correction in this Administration’s economic policies. 

Despite significant tax increases, President Obama’s FY 2011 budget will entrench 

federal spending at a new plateau of more than 23 percent of GDP and more than 

double the publicly held federal debt over the next ten years. This budget is a jobkiller. 

Finally, I would like to observe that the Census Bureau will hire between 700,000 

and 800,000 temporary, mainly part-time, workers during the first five months of 

2010 to take the decennial census. The hiring of these temporary Census workers 

will inflate the monthly change in payroll jobs above its underlying trend through 

May. Then, the dismissal of these temporary Census workers during the following 

five months will pull the monthly change in payroll jobs below its underlying trend 

from June through October. Because this is a Census year, we will need to examine 

the payroll jobs data, without this distortion to understand the employment situation during 2010. 

Dr. Hall, I look forward to hearing your testimony. 

22 

PREPARED STATEMENT OF DR. KEITH HALL, COMMISSIONER, BUREAU OF LABOR

STATISTICS

Madam Chair and Members of the Committee: 

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss the employment and unemployment data 

we released this morning. 

The unemployment rate declined from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January. Nonfarm 

payroll employment was essentially unchanged (¥20,000) and on net has shown little movement over the last 3 months. In January, job losses continued in construction and in transportation and warehousing, while employment increased in temporary help services and retail trade. With revisions released today, job losses since 

the start of the recession in December 2007 totaled 8.4 million, substantially more 

than previously reported. 

Construction employment fell by 75,000 in January, about in line with the average monthly job loss in 2009. Nonresidential specialty trade contracting accounted 

for much of the over-the-month decline. The nonresidential components of construction have accounted for the majority of the industry’s job loss since early 2009. Employment in transportation and warehousing decreased by 19,000 in January; the 

entire decline occurred in courier and messenger services, which laid off more workers than usual over the month. 

Employment in temporary help services grew by 52,000 over the month. This industry, which provides workers to other businesses, has added nearly a quarter of 

a million jobs since its recent low point last September. Following 2 months of little 

change, retail trade employment increased by 42,000 in January, with gains in several components. Health care employment continued to rise in January. Overall, 

manufacturing employment was little changed, although motor vehicles and parts 

added 23,000 jobs. Since June, the manufacturing workweek for all employees has 

increased by 1.2 hours. 

Federal government employment rose in January, partly due to hiring for the decennial census. Employment in state and local governments, excluding education, 

continued to trend down over the month. 

Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private sector rose by 4 cents in 

January to $22.45. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 

by 2.0 percent. From December 2008 to December 2009, the Consumer Price Index 

for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 2.8 percent. 

Turning now to some measures from our household survey, both the number of 

unemployed persons (14.8 million) and the unemployment rate (9.7 percent) declined 

in January. However, the share of those jobless for 27 weeks and over continued 

to rise. 

The employment-population ratio increased to 58.4 percent over the month. The 

number of persons working part time who would have preferred full-time employment dropped from 9.2 to 8.3 million, the lowest level in a year. 

Before closing, I would note that several changes were introduced today to the 

Employment Situation news release text and tables. Three new household survey 

tables provide information on the employment status of veterans, persons with a 

disability, and the foreign-born population. In January, the unemployment rate of 

veterans from Gulf War era II (September 2001 to the present) was 12.6 percent, 

compared with 10.4 percent for nonveterans. Persons with a disability had a higher 

jobless rate than persons with no disability—15.2 versus 10.4 percent. In addition, 

21.8 percent of persons with a disability were in the labor force, compared with 70.1 

percent of persons without a disability. The unemployment rate for the foreign born 

was 11.8 percent, and the rate for the native born was 10.3 percent. (The data in 

these new tables are not seasonally adjusted.) 

The establishment survey tables have been redesigned to include the addition of 

data on hours and earnings for all private-sector employees as well as employment 

information for women. Women currently make up 49.9 percent of total nonfarm 

payroll employment, compared with 48.8 percent when the recession began in December 2007. Additional information about the new and redesigned tables is available on the BLS Web site. 

I would also note that there were annual adjustments to data from our two surveys. The establishment survey data released today reflect the incorporation of annual benchmark revisions. Each year, we re-anchor our sample-based survey estimates to full universe counts of employment, primarily derived from administrative 

records of the unemployment insurance tax system. Accounting for revisions during 

the benchmark and post-benchmark periods, the previously published level of total 

nonfarm employment for December 2009 was revised downward by 1,363,000. 

Household survey data for January reflect updated population estimates from the 

23 

U.S. Census Bureau. Further information about the impact of these adjustments is 

contained in our news release and on our Web site. 

Returning now to the labor market data we released this morning, the jobless rate 

declined to 9.7 percent in January, and payroll employment was essentially unchanged. 

My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your questions. 

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Æ 


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