# A Modeling Protocol for the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System for Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

December 31, 2006



# The Modeling Committee of the

Ozone Transport Commission2 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 STUDY DESIGN

1.1 Background...................................................................................6

1.2 Objectives.....................................................................................6

1.3 Photochemical Modeling System.......................................................6

1.4 Deliverables..................................................................................7

1.5 Schedule......................................................................................7

2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE

2.1 OTR Oversight Committee................................................................8

2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup............................................8

2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup............................................8

2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup.................................8

2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup....................................8

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN

3.1 Description....................................................................................9

3.2 Horizontal Grid Size........................................................................9

3.2 Number of Vertical Layers................................................................9

4 OZONE EPISODES

4.1 EPA Episode Selection Criteria.........................................................9

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure.............................................103 5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields...............................................................11

5.2 Quality Assurance of MM5 Meteorological Fields..................................11

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002

6.1 2002 Emission Inventories for OTC States..........................................11

6.2 2002 Emission Inventories fo r All Other OTR States..............................12

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain.................12

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain........12

8 AIR QUALITY DATA

8.1 Initial conditions..............................................................................12

8.2 Boundary conditions........................................................................13

8.3 Ambient Air Quality Data...................................................................13

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES

9.1 Quality Assurance Test s of Input Components.......................................13

9.2 Diagnostic Tests..............................................................................13

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

10.1 Performance Criteria.......................................................................13

10.2 Statistical Performance Measures......................................................144 11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2009

11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTC States for 2009...............................15

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for al l other OTR States for 2009....................15

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2010 AND 2013 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

12.1 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain..................................15

13 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs.............................................15

13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs.....................................................16

13.3 Analysis of Available Air Q uality and Emission Databases......................16

13.4 OTR Domain Ozone Control Strategy.................................................16

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES

14.1 2009 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for OTR Domain.........16

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009

15.1 Initial Conditions.............................................................................16

15.2 Boundary Conditions.......................................................................16

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009 .......................................................17

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for 2009........................................17

16 DOCUMENTATION REPORT ......................................................................17

17 REFERENCES ..........................................................................................175 APPENDIX A: Workgroups for the Development and Applicat ion of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling S ystem For Assessment of the Oz one National Ambient Air

Q uality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

APPENDIX B: Work Plan for the Development and Applicat ion of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling S ystem For Assessment of the Oz one National Ambient Air

Q uality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region6 1 STUDY DESIGN

1.1 Background

Moderate non-attainment areas in the Ozone Trans port Region (OTR) are required to attain the 8-hour ozone NAAQS by 2010. Modeled or monito red attainment is based on the summer ozone season preceding 2010, so the target year for attainment modeli ng is 2009 for moderate non-attainment areas. The Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) has embarked on the task of preparing a State Implementation Plan (SIP ) ozone modeling system for exercising photochemical grid model(s) to assess the impact of candidate ozone control strategies in

moderate and serious non-attainment areas in the OTR. The OTC Directors endorsed the Modeling Protocol for the OT C SIP Quality Modelin g System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport R egion at the November 12-13, 2003 Fall meeting of the OTC. The subject protocol ha s been modified since then to incorporate CMAQ model modifications and emission invent ory improvements.

This modeling protocol outlines procedures to prepare and use the OTC SIP ozone modeling system to help design an ozone attainment strat egy to attain the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the OTR. Emission inventories for point, area, on–road and off- road sources of NO

x , VOC and CO will be developed for a base year of 2002. BEIS3 will be used to estimate biogenic emissions. MM5 will be used at a 12 km grid resolution and, in the photochemical grid model, 4 km grid cells will be nested in urban areas where appropria te. A model perform ance evaluation will be prepared for 2002. If model perform ance is satisfactory, emission input files reflecting candidate control strategy scenarios for 2009 will be pr epared, and 2009 ozone levels will be simulated with the modeling system. OTC States with moderate and seriou s non-attainment areas will then use these modeling results to help suppor t required ozone attainment demonstrations. However, it has become apparent that modelin g at a higher resolution than 12 km is not possible without improvements in the modeling system in terms of the physical and chemical formulation as well as the need for development of emissions estimates at spatial resolutions higher than county-level estimates.

1.2 Objective

The New York Department of Environmental Conservation has agreed to be the lead agency for developing a SIP quality ozon e modeling system for assessing t he future year attainment

of the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the OTR. Th e CMAQ model will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies in the OTR Modeling Domain. The regulatory objective will be to design an ozone control strategy that will resu lt in attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in moderate non-attainment areas by 2009.

1.3 Photochemical Modeling System

The OTC Modeling Committee in its prior work exerci sed both CMAQ and CAMx and noticed that even though these models had performed similarl y in estimating ozone on an over-all basis, the level of agreement between the simulated and measured concentrations varied from good to bad depending on the model and depending upon the si mulation day. So, as part of this7 protocol, both models (which continue to be updated by their developers) will be applied for an episode that occurred in 2002. However, it was soon recognized that there was a need for application of a one-atmosphere modeling system that would provide estimates of both ozone and particulate matter and that the same base y ear emissions and meteorological data would be utilized in the development of appropriate SIPs. This together with USEPA’s launching of the CMAS center that provides a venue for sharing information from other modelers led the OTC modeling committee to select the CMAQ model fo r application in its SIP Quality Ozone Modeling System for testing the effect iveness of proposed control strategies in the OTR.

The OTC Modeling Committee also examined the performances of two emissions processors (EMS2001 and SMOKE, both using CB4 chemistry) from prior work and concluded that there

are differences between them that could be mi nimized by forcing the models to use a common speciation and surrogate database. Since CMAQ was the air quality model of choice, given that it handled inputs from SMOKE more readily t han it did from the EMS2001 processor, the SMOKE emission processor was selected for constructing emission files for the SIP Quality Ozone Modeling System for the OTR Domain.

1.4 Deliverables

The key deliverables for the SI P quality ozone modeling system for the OTR are listed below.

• Select Ozone Episodes

• Prepare Meteorological Fields

• Prepare 2002 Emission Inv entories for each OTC State

• Acquire 2002 Emission Inventories for non-OTC States in the OTR Domain

• Prepare 2002 Emission Input Files for t he OTR Domain

• Complete 2002 Model Performance Evaluation for the OTR Domain

• Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Inv entories for each OTC State

• Acquire 2009 CAA Emission Inventories for non-OT C States in the OTR Domain

• Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

• Complete Modeling Runs for 2009 CAA Sc enarios

• Design Control Strategy for the OTR Modeling Domain.

• Prepare 2009 Emission Input Files fo r OTR Control Strategy

• Complete Modeling Runs for t he OTR Control Strategy for 2009

• Complete Evaluation Report for 2009 Control Strategy

1.5 Schedule

The schedule for developing the SIP quality m odeling system and the assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the Ozone Transport Region is provided in Appe ndix A. Because of delays encountered in developing, integrating and processing state-of-the- art emission inventories from Regional Planning Organizations in the MANE-VU modeling dom ain, schedule target dates have been moved back approximately 9 months (c omplete Modeling TSD report in March of 2007 instead of June of 2006).8 2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE

2.1 OTR Oversight Committee (Appendix B)

OTC Air Directors will serve as the OTR Oversight Committee. The Air Directors will ensure

that 2002 and 2009 CAA emission inventories are prepared for each OTC state in the OTR Modeling Domain, and will also be responsible for obtaining emission inventories for the non OTR States that are part of t he OTR Modeling Domain. The Air Di rectors will oversee the design of ozone control strategies for the OTR, and wi ll make the final decision on any funding needed to develop the OTC SIP Quality M odeling System. The Air Direct ors will review all OTC SIP Quality Modeling System documentation before it is releas ed to interested parties. The state

members of the OTC M odeling Committee will keep Air Directors informed of the development

of the OTC SIP Qua lity Modeling System.

2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup (Appendix B)

OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup will be responsible for preparing the modeling

assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the OTR. T he Workgroup will be responsible for collecting and processing model input data, setting up all m odel input files, performing model runs, and interpreting and documenting the results of the modeling analyses for the OTR domain. The Workgroup will prepare and submit all OTC SIP quality modeling system documentation to

the OTC Air Directors.

2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup (Appendix B)

The OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup wi ll be responsible for preparing and assessing MM5 meteorological fields for the OTR Modeling Do main. This Workgroup will also work with the OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup to pr epare all meteorological input files for the OTC SIP quality mode ling system.

2.4 OTR Emission Inventory De velopment Workgroup (Appendix B)

The OTR Emission Inventory Development Wo rkgroup will be responsible for obtaining and developing guidance for preparing 2002 and 2009 state emission inventor ies for all states in the OTR. The OTC Air Directors will be responsible for obtaining emission inventories for non-OTR states in the OTR Modeling Domain. The Mid- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) and the Mid-Atlantic /Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU ) organizations will provide funding for contractors and work with OTR states to help prepare state-of-the-art 2002 emission files, 2009 CAA emission files and 2009 C ontrol Strategy emission files for the OTR Modeling Domain.

2.5 OTR Control Strategy De velopment Workgroup (Appendix B)

The OTR Control Strategy Development Work group will be responsible for designing an ozone control strategy for the OTR Domain that wi ll attain the ozone NAAQS by 2009 in moderate nonattainment areas and 2012 in serious non-attainment areas. The Workgroup will work with the9 OTC stationary /area source committee and t he OTC mobile source committee to design an

effective ozone control strat egy for the OTR domain.

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN

3.1 Description

The OTR modeling domain (see Figure 1) follow s the national grid adopted by the Regional Haze Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs), but with focus on the eastern U.S. The areal

extent of the domain was select ed such that the northeastern areas of Maine are inside the domain. Based upon the existing computer resources, the southern and western boundaries were limited to the region shown in Figure 1. At a horizontal gr id resolution of 12 km, there are 172 grids in the east-west and 172 grids in north -south direction. De tails of the modeling system setup can be found at ftp://ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air _research/gsistla/otc-mm5-cmaqgrid-def.doc

3.2 Horizontal Grid Size

Following EPA and as noted above, a 12 km grid resolution will be used for the domain. A coarser mesh may not be appropriate for urb an area applications. Modeling at a higher

resolution than 12 km will not be performed at this time; to do w ould require improvements in the modeling system in terms of t he physical and chemical formul ation as well as the need for development of emissions at a higher spatial re solution than that for t he currently available county-level estimates.

3.3 Number of Vertical Layers

Similar to the horizontal grid spacing which is fi xed by the default set forth in the design of the meteorological model, in this case 12 km, the def inition of the vertical structure could also be adopted one-to-one based upon the meteorological mo del which has 29 layers. However, given the computational resources and runtime needs the number of vertical layers in the photochemical model was limited to 22, of which the lower 16 layers (appr oximately 3km) were

set one-to-one with those of the meteorological model.

4 OZONE EPISODES

4.1 Episode Selection Criteria

Since it would be impractical to model every violation day, EPA has recommended targeting a select group of episode days for ozone attainment demonstrations. Such episode days should be (1) meteorologically representative of typi cal high ozone exceedanc e days in the domain, and (2) so severe that any control strategies predicted to attain the ozone NAAQS for that episode day would also result in a ttainment for all other exceedance days.10 Figure 1: O T C Modeling Do m a in with areal extent of 12km and 36km gr ids

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure

While the above-suggested approach is perhaps feasible for isolated urban areas, such an approach may not be meaningful given the areal extent of concern and the modeling domain.
Also, select ion of episodes from di fferent years would require the generation of the meteorological fields and emissions database, wh ich would be an extremel y difficult proposition given the modeling domain. The 2002 ozone season had a signif i cant number of exceedance days (the spatial distribution of the daily 1-hr and 8-hr maxima over the eastern U. S. can be

examined at the site ftp://ftp .state.ny.us/dar /air_research/htdocs/index

. html ). It was decided that

the 5-month ozone season of 2002 would be simu lated with the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System which will involve investigating numer ous ozone episodes and would provide for better assessment of the simulated pollutant fiel ds. The Environ repor t “Determination of Represent ativeness of 2002 Ozone Season fo r Ozone Transport Region SIP Modeling” demonstrated that 2002 episode days are (1) meteor ologically representative of typical high ozone exceedance days in the domain, and (2) are pr obably so severe that control strategies predicted to attain the ozone NAAQS for those episo de day would also result in attainment for all other exceedance days.11 5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields

The MM5 setup has been described by Zhang (2000) for generating meteorological fields based on a modified Blackadar scheme for the boundary laye r. Since there are a variety of options that can be exercised in the application of MM5, initial testing was performed for a high ozone event of 2002 with the most commonly used defaul t options as well as with modified boundary layer schemes (Zhang and Zheng 2004). A set of options was selected and used by Prof. Zhang

of UMD in consultation with NYDEC Staff fo r running MM5 for the 2002 5-month ozone season.

5.2 Quality Assurance of Meteorological Fields

As a part of this effort, the simulated meteor ological fields will be compared to data collected

under CASTNET as well as with observations from the National Weather Service (NWS). Prior experience has shown that these approaches provide for an independent assessment of the simulated meteorological conditions. Also, dat a from any other specia l measurements will be sought and compared with the simulated fields. This anal ysis should provide a degree of

confidence in the simulated met eorological fields and their use in photochemical grid modeling. This work will be coordinated through the meteorological model work group.

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002

6.1 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for OTC states

Each state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2002 base year emission Inventory that include VOC, NO

x , and CO for a typical ozone summer day. States are to follow EPA guidance documents for this base year inventory, whic h is due to EPA by June 1, 2004. Note this inventory may also qualify as the consol idated emissions regulatory report (CERR).

Emissions for all categories will be estimated for each county and state and the seasonal factors will facilitate spatial and tem poral adjustments for modeling. Point and area source data will be

submitted by individual states to EPA for uploading to EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI) database using the required EPA format. MOBILE 6.2 input files and VMT data will be submitted to NEI so that EPA can generate on-road mobile emissions for each state by county in a format that can be easily gridded and speciated. Similarl y, off-road input files will be sent to EPA for running the latest NONROAD model.

It is anticipated that these state inventories will follow the EPA prescribed approach and should

be formatted in a consistent manner. While th is protocol deals with 8-hr ozone issues, the inventory would also contain the necessary info rmation for exercising t he particulate option of the photochemical model. This would be of help in those cases where the one-atmosphere12 option is to be exercised in the assessment. Bi ogenic emissions will be estimated with EPA’s

BEIS-3 emissions model.

6.2 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories fo r All Other States in the OTR Domain

A 2002 base year emission inventory that includes VOC, NO

x , and CO for a typical ozone summer day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the OTR domain. It is anticipated that these inventories will be developed following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a

consistent manner.

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission I nput Files for the OTR Domain

Emissions data will be process ed using SMOKE. The surrogate dat a files for the OTR grid have been previously developed by NY DEC and will be us ed in this study. For those pollutants that depend upon ambient temperature, MM5 layer-1 gr idded temperature fields will be used.

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain

The processing of the emissions data will in clude several quality che cks before the data are

exercised in the simulations. Prior experience has shown that considerable time and resources are often invested in developing the gridded emissions data. Wh ile there are many avenues to improve or correct the data, based upon consensus of the OTC Photochemical Modeling Workgroup, a definite closure of the emission s processing will be adhered to and any further changes or corrections will be archived and incorpor ated at a later date. In performing this work, close attention will be paid to the emissi ons within the OTR and, if necessary, corrections will be incorporated on the advice of t he OTC Photochemica l Modeling Workgroup.

Biogenic emissions will be prepared for each episode day using BEIS-3. The temperature data from MM5 layer-1 will be used along with cloud cover information obtained from MM5.

8 AIR QUALITY DATA

8.1 Initial Conditions

Prior experience has shown that a 3-day ramp-up per iod is sufficient to establish pollutant levels that are encountered in the beginning of the ozone episode. In this application clean conditions

will be assumed for the 1st hour of the simulation along with the emissions and boundary conditions as described below. Since the applic ation was to be in one- atmosphere mode using a common platform, it was determined that a longer ramp-up period of 15 days was needed because experiments indicat ed that some of the PM 2.5 species from the in itial conditions (IC) were retained for ramp-up periods of 10 days or less. Thus the CMAQ model run will start on May 1, 2002; the first 15 days are assum ed to be ramp-up days and will not used for performance evaluation purposes.13 8.2 Boundary Conditions

In prior studies attempts were made to incl ude any available inform ation from ozonesondes and

monitors that are near the we stern and northern boundaries of t he modeling domain. For this study, similar attempts wi ll be made to obtain pollut ant data at the boundaries.

For boundary conditions, NY DEC will run CMAQ with the continental 36 km grid using GEOSCHEM simulation data for 2002. The GEOS-CHE M information will be obtained by NESCAUM from Prof. Daniel Jacob's gr oup of Harvard University. Hour by hour boundary conditions will

then be extracted from the continental 36 km CMAQ run results and used for the OTR 12 km modeling domain.

8.3 Ambient Air Quality Data

Ambient air quality data will be extracted from the EPA AQS archive for ozone, CO, NO

x , and total and speciated hydrocarbons reported as part of the PAMS networ k. Also, data from

CASTNET will be obtained. Since the OTR m odeling domain extends over two time zones,

while the model simulations are reflective of a single time zone, EST, there will be a need to

”correct” the clock and assemble the ambient air quality database. Any special measurements that are relevant to this study during the summ er of 2002 will also be acquired, including upper

air measurements.

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES

9.1 Quality Assurance Te sts of Input Components

Before proceeding with modeling, all air qualit y, emissions, and meteorological data will be reviewed to ensure completeness, accuracy, and consistency. Any errors, missing data or inconsistencies will be addressed using appropriate methods that are consistent with standard practices.

9.2 Diagnostic Tests

Attempts will be made to perform diagnostic test s to ensure that the simulated ozone patterns are in agreement with observed patterns over the ent ire simulation period. While it is unrealistic to expect day-to-day agreement between the meas ured and predicted data, close attention will be paid to the changes in pattern of the measured ozone levels and the ability of the model to capture such changes.

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

10.1 Performance Criteria14 This is an area that will likely require dial og among member states. While there are many statistical tests that can be applied to predicted oz one concentrations, it is important to define a priori some of the conditions of the analysis and the targets of evaluation. Al so, it is important to

define the areal extent for which the asse ssment needs to be done to address the performance of the model. Statistical tests are to be applied to the precursor data as well, recognizing that all tests applied to the ozone data ma y or may not be valid.

As part of the model assessment , qualitative analysis will also be performed by comparing predicted and measured pollutant fields to establ ish if the spatial patterns are captured by the modeling system. This is a crit ical step, since the measured concentrations may fall into a neighboring grid cell (but not at the measured location itself) and may be found to be in good

agreement.

Another area that is quite import ant is the predictive ability of the model with respect to height. Recognizing that the pollutants trapped above the mixed laye r during the overnight hours would mix down during the daytime, comparison wi ll be made between meas urements and model predictions. Special attention will be paid to el evated monitoring stations, such as the television tower near Durham, North Carolina; the Sears Tower in Chicago, Illinois, and monitors located

at elevated rural stations at Whiteface Mountain, NY.

10.2 Statistical Performance Measures

The recommended EPA procedures will be us ed to calculate the recommended performance
measures. At a minimum, the fo llowing three statistical performance measures will be used to assess CAMx model perfo rmance for each episode.

• Unpaired highest-prediction accuracy

This measure quantifies the diffe rence between the highest observed eight-hour value in the domain and the highest predicted val ue in the domain. The a cceptable performance range is plus or minus 15-20 percent.

• Normalized bias

This measure indicates the degree to which simulated eight

- hour values are over or under-predicted. The acceptable performance range is plus or minus 5-15 percent.

• Gross error of all pairs above 40 ppb

This measure indicates the av erage discrepancy between predicted and observed values and provides an overall assessment of model performance. The acceptable perform ance range is 30-35 percent.15 11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2009

11.1 CAA Emission Inventorie s for OTR States for 2009

Each OTC state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2009 CAA emission i nventory that is consistent with the regulations and rules adopted or expected to be in-place. The inventory will be developed consistent with EPA guidance. The states will develop the information on growth factors and controls used in the development of the inventory. Each state will submit a report on the development of these fu ture year inventories.

Since the electric energy generation and use are highly inter-connected, coupled with the existing rules on trading and banking of pollutants, it is expected that an inventory consistent with this information would be developed for al l electric energy generation units using models

such as IPM

.

Recognizing that any pr ediction of future emissions are subject to changes, the OTC Modeling Committee would develop a decision framework on obtaining these emissions to be consistent with the OTC SIP quality model ing system schedule (Appendix A).

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all non-OTR States for 2009

A 2009 CAA emission inventor y that includes VOC, NO

x , and CO for a typical ozone summer day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the OT R. It is anticipated that these inventories will be developed following E PA guidance, and will be format ted in a consistent manner.

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2009 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN

12.1 CAA Emission Input File s for OTR Domain for 2009

2009 CAA emissions data will be processed using SMOKE. For pollutants that depend on ambient temperature, MM5 layer- 1 gridded temperature fields will be used to estimate hourly emission rates. The biogenic em ission input files prepared for the base 2002 will be used as a surrogate for 2009 biogenic emissions. These em issions data will be processed using the quality assurance checks descr ibed in section 7.2.

It should be noted that the CAA means all on the books and on the way control measures (OTB/OTW) scheduled to be in effect by 2009.

13 OTR DOMAIN OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs

A series of CALGRID screening runs will be performed to investigate the level of emissions reductions needed both within and outside of the OTR. This will help identify potential emission reductions scenarios that can be used for CMAX future year SIP modeling runs.16 13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs

OTC SIP modeling platform CAA runs for 2009 will be reviewed to help determine the level of

emissions reductions needed to attain the ozone N AAQS. VOC and NOX sensitivity runs will also be performed to help identify potential emi ssion reductions scenarios that can be used to

lower ozone levels in the OTR.

13.3 Analysis of Available Ai r Quality and Emission Databases

A review of air quality and emission databases (for example, EPA Clear Skies and Transport Rule emission files) will be performed to hel p identify potential source sectors of ozone precursors. Analysis of available EPA modeling re sults will also be performed to help identify potential source sectors of ozone precursors in, and upwi nd, of the OTR domain.

13.4 Ozone Control Strategy for the OTR Domain

The OTR Control Strategy Development Team wi ll review CALGRID results, other available

databases

, and EPA databases, to help identify potential c ontrol programs. The Team will work with OTR states and the OTC stationary, area and mobile source committees to design ozone control strategies for the OTR Domain with the goal of meeting regulatory target dates.

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES

14.1 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain for 2009

Emissions files for the selected ozone control st rategy for the OTR Do main for 2009 will be prepared in a consistent manner as per schedule. If necessary, additional IPM simulations may be performed to obtain EGU emission estimates.

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009

15.1 Initial Conditions

The initial conditions at the startup will be “c lean”. The OTR Modeling Team will use the 2002 initial condition files as a surrogate for initial conditions for 2009 modeling runs.

15.2 Boundary conditions

EPA will be consulted for guidance in estimati ng boundary conditions for 2009 or, under default, would utilize those adapted for the Base 2002 base year simulation. It should be noted that the default option was used for the 2009 CMAQ simulation.17 15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009

The model will be run with the CAA emissi on files developed for 2009. Tile plots, difference plots, and model statistics will be prepared to help characterize the extent of any remaining non-attainment areas predicted in the OTR in 2009.

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for 2009.

The model will be run with OTR control strategy emission files prepared for 2009. Tile plots, difference plots and model statistics will be prepared to help characterize the extent of any remaining non-attainment areas predi cted in the OTR for the year 2009.

16 DOCUMENTATION

A report titled “Assessment of the Ozone Nationa l Ambient Air Quality Standards in the Ozone Transport Region will be prepared by the OTR Modeling Team”. The report would cover model performance evaluation, and an eval uation of the OTR control strategy runs for 2009. This

technical document will be made available to all interested parties and will be used by the

member States in their SIP submission documentation as needed.

17 REFERENCES

Environ (2006): Determination of Repr esentativeness of 2002 Ozone Season for Ozone Transport Region SIP Modeling

Dalin Zhang (2000): Development of meteorol ogical database for summer 1997 using MM5 at

12 km resolution in Photochemical Model Simulations

Dalin Zhang and William Zheng (2004): Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as simulated by five boundary-layer parameterizati ons, Journal of Appl. Meteorology 43, 157-169

Gopal Sistla (1999): Development of a surro gate database for use in Regional/Urban-scale Modeling at 4 km spatial resolution (see http://envpro.ncsc.org/emcenter/ )

Wick Havens (2000): Development of an Emi ssions Inventory for Regional/Urban-scale Modeling, MARAMA-RTC (see http://www.marama.org/ )18 

## APPENDIX A

Workgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System for
Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Qua lity Standard in the Ozone Transport Region19 

## OTC Photochemical Modeling Workgroup

State Lead Gopal Sistla

OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz Chair OTC Modeling Committee Barbara Kwetz

Delaware Mohammed Majeed

DC Rama Tangirala

Maine Tom Downs

Maryland Mike Woodman

Massachusetts Steve Dennis

New Hampshire Jeff Underhill

New York Gopal Sistla

Pennsylvania Tim Leon Gurrero

NESCAUM Gary Kleiman

EPA Invited for selected discussions20 

## OTC Meteorological Modeling Workgroup

State Lead Mike Woodman

OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz

Connecticut Dave Wackter

Delaware Mohammed Majeed

DC Rama Tangirala

Maine Tom Downs

Maryland Tad Aburn Matt Seybold

Mike Woodman

Jeff Stehr

Massachusetts Rich Fields

New Hampshire Jeff Underhill

New Jersey Alan Dresser

New York Gopal Sistla

Pennsylvania Tim Leon Gurrero

Vermont Paul Wishinski

Virginia Kirit Chaudhar

MARAMA Serpil Kayin

NESCAUM Gary Kleiman

EPA Invited for selected discussions21 

## OTC Emission Inventory Development Workgroup

State Lead Ray Malenfant

OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz

Connecticut Bill Simpson

Delaware Dave Fees

DC Rama Tangirala

Maine Dave Wright

Maryland Roger Thgunell

Massachusetts Ken Santlal

New Hampshire Mike Fitzgerald Andy Bodnarik

New Jersey Joan Held

New York Jim Ralston

Pennsylvania Dean Van Orden

Rhode Island Karen Slattery

Vermont Jeff Merrell

Virginia Tom Ballou

MARAMA Serpil Kayin

EPA Invited for selected discussions22 

## OTC/MANE-VU Control Strategies Workgroup

State Lead Jeff Underhill

OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz

Connecticut Dave Wackter

Kurt Kebschull

Delaware Ray Malenfant Mohammed Majeed

Maine Jeff Crawford

Tom Downs

Maryland Tad Aburn Matt Seybold

Mike Woodman

Jeff Stehr

Massachusetts Eileen Hiney

Steve Dennis

New Hampshire Jeff Underhill Andy Bodnarik

New Jersey Bob Stern Ray Papalski

Alan Dresser

Robert Huizer

New York Gopal Sistla

Pennsylvania Wick Havens

Tim Leon Gurrero

Rhode Island Barbara Morin

Vermont Paul Wishinski

Virginia Kirit Chaudhar

MARAMA Serpil Kayin Megan Schuster

NESCAUM Leah Weiss Gary Kleiman

EPA Invited for selected discussions23 

## APPENDIX B

Work Plan for the Development and Applicat ion of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System.Work plan for the Development and Applicat ion of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System †

Task

No. Activity or Task Initial Target

Date Organization(s) Performing Task Remarks & Status

Notes & Revisions

Initial Planning

1 Prepare a Work plan and a Modeling Protocol for the development of the OTC SIP quality modeling system to address ozone non-attainment problems in the OTR. Nov 03 NY, MA Completed

Meteorology

2

3

4 Complete MM5 modeling for 2002 (May thru Sep) Episode evaluation and assessment Evaluate MM5 data and process for photochemical

models. Dec 04

Dec 04

Mar 05 MD (UMCP), NY Contract Support MD (UMCP), NY In progress In progress Inn progress

Emissions Inventories

5

6

7

8 Prepare 2002 emission inventories for MANEVU states in

the OTR Domain.

Obtain 2002 emission inventories for non-MANEVU

s tates in the OTR Domain.

Prepare 2009 CAA emission inventories for MANEVU

states in the OTR Domain.

Obtain 2009 CAA emission inventories for non-MANEVU

states in the OTR Domain. Jan 05

Jan 05

Aug 05

Aug 05 MARAMA

MARAMA

MARAMA

MARAMA

Emission Input files

9

10

11 Prepare 2002 emission files for the OTR domain with
SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

Prepare 2009 CAA emission files for the OTR domain
with SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data.

Prepare 2009 emission files for OTR control strategy with
SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data. Nov 04

Nov 05

Nov 05 NY

NY

NY Delayed until Jan 052 Task

No. Activity or Task Initial Target

Date Organization(s) Performing Task Remarks & Status

Notes & Revisions

Modeling

12

13

14

15 Complete 2002 model performance evaluation for OTR

Domain.

Test model sensitivity to NOx, VOC reductions and potential control measure options.

Complete modeling runs for 2009 CAA scenarios.

Complete modeling runs for 2009 OTR control strategy May 05

Sep 05

Jan 06

Jan 06 NY

NY

NY

NY

OTR Control Strategy Development

16

17

18 Perform screening runs wi th OTC CALGRID modeling

system

Review air quality and emission databases to help identify potential sources of ozone in the OTR.

Design Control Strategy for the OTR Domain Mar 05

Jul 05

Sep 05 OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup

Reports

19 Complete technical support documents presenting regional OTR modeling and air quality/emission database analyses. (These two documents will provide technical support for state ozone SIPs. Jun 06 NY, other OTC states This will allow states nine months to prepare SIP revisions due in April

2007.

Management

20

21 Day-to-day management and coordination.

Provide direction, oversight, and obtain any necessary funding. on-going

on-going OTC Modeling

Committee

OTC Air Directors

† To be used as needed for Ozone SIPs in the OTR. Based on EPA draft guidance, Ozone SIPs expected submission by April 2007.