p.1 

OAR Box 1828 

Prepped by Ollie Stewart 

Document Number: 

128) ll-K-(B)-118 

Docket Number: 

A-83-27 

Printed 11/12/200811:12:52 AM Sheet 128 of 325 
if) 

\ 

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS, INC 

P.2 

June 23, 1983 

A-83-

II-K-(B)-H8 

Mr. Robert Short 

Economic Analysis Branch 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Mail Drop-12 

Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 

Subject: EPA Contract No. 68-02-3564, Work Assignment #9 

Dear Robert: 

The purpose of this letter is to review the scenarios for the 1990 and 

1995 IFCAM projections of the national impacts of alternative SO„ NSPS 

regulations for new industrial fossil fuel-fired boilers. 

Table 1 summarizes the Base Case scenario for this set of runs. Table 1 

represents the proposed PM/NO NSPS air emission regulations. Note that 

Table 1 does not include a special coal PM emission regulation for wet 

.FGD systems. 

The PM and NO regulations shown in Table 1 will be held constant for 

all Option Case runs. It is also assumed that the residual fuel oil SO. 

NSPS air emission regulation is 0.8 lb/MMBtu for all new residual fuel 

oil boilers in all Option Case runs. 

Table 2 lists the alternative S0? NSPS air emission regulations for new 

coal-fired industrial boilers which we discussed in our meeting with 

ESED and Judi Greenwald on May 26, 1983. Note that the S02 percentage 

removal requirements in Option Cases 5-7 and 10 are set at 85 percent 

since the upper limit for SO- removal for a lime spray drying FGD system 

is assumed to be 87 percent. 

Table 3 outlines the basis for selecting the uncontrolled S0„ emissions 

ceilings shown in Table 2. They are designed to identify different coal 

types as "compliance" (scrubbing not required to comply with the NSPS 

SO- emission regulation) coal types. 

Table 4 summarizes the proposed IFCAM run sequence for the 1990 and 1995 

Projections.for 1995 have been postponed until all 

Otherwise, the order shown in 

Table 4 is consistent with the schedule proposed in our meeting with 

ESED and Judi Greenwald on May 26, 1983. 

S0„ impact analyses. 

of the 1990 results have been produced 

Fr*. nnnmir s / Fnoinaorin n 
P.3 

Mr. Robert Short 

June 23, 1983 

Page 2 

Many scenarios are scheduled to be run twice: with and without the dual 

alkali FGD/single mechanical collector system. This combined SO„/PM 

control system is assumed not to be able to meet a 0.05 lb/MMBtu PM 

emission regulation. Since there is not likely to be any demand for 

coal in new low capacity utilization rate industrial boilers in the 

IFCAM projections, this control technology will compete only for new 

boilers less than 100 MMBtu/hr in order to comply with the 0.2 lb 

PM/MMBtu NSPS regulation for coal types not in compliance with SO- SIP's 

(see Table 1). It is possible that there may be little or no demand for 

this control technology unless the coal PM NSPS emission regulations in 

Table 1 for large new boilers are revised to 0.1 lb PM/MMBtu for wet FGD 

systems. Therefore, runs number 11 to 19 in Table 4 are proposed in 

order to evaluate the national impacts of a special PM emission regulation for wet FGD systems on large new industrial boilers. 

A revised energy scenario was proposed in a report prepared by EEA for 

EPA dated June 8, 1983. The regional industrial energy demand projections recommended in the June 8th report are presented in Table 5. 

Please confirm or correct these assumptions as soon as possible. 

Sincerely, 

Tim Hogan 

TH:mk 

Attachment 

cc: Al Wehe 
TABLE 1. BASE CASE NSPS AIR EMISSIONS REGULATIONS, 

(lb/MMBtu) 

P.4 

Fuel type 

Size class 

(MMBtu/hr) SO, PM NO 

Natural gas 

Distillate fuel oil 

Residual fuel oil 

Coal 

50-250 

>250 

50-250 

>250 

50-250 

>250 

50-100 

100-250 

>250 

0.80 

0.80 

1.20 

— 

0.10 

0.10 

0.20/0. 

0.05/0. 

0.05 

35d 20d 

0.20 

0.20 

0.203 

0.20 

0.30/0.40a'

b 

0.30 

0.60a 

0.60/0.70a'

e 

0.70 

There is no NO emissions standard if the expected capacity utilization 

rate is less tnan 30 percent. 

0.30 if the nitrogen content is less than 0.35 percent; 0.40 if the 

nitrogen content is greater than 0.35 percent. 

"0.20 if the expected capacity utilization rate is greater than 30 percent; 0.35 if the expected capacity utilization rate is less than 

30 percent. 

0.05 if the expected capacity utilization rate is greater than 30 percent; 0.20 if the expected capacity utilization rate is less than 

30 percent. 

'0.60 for spreader stokers; 0.70 for pulverized coal boilers. 

30-day rolling-average. 
P.5 

TABLE 2. ALTERNATIVE SO NSPS AIR EMISSIONS'REGULATIONS 

FOR NEW COAL-FIRED INDUSTRIAL BOILERS 

Size Class Ceiling (lb/MMBtu) % Removal 

Scenario (MMBtu/hr) Uncontrolled Scrubbed Required 

Floor 

(lb/MMBtu) 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

>10 

>10 

>10 

>10 

>10 

>10 

>10 

>10 

>10 

>10 

1.2 

1.8" 

2.6 

1.2 

1.8 

1.0 

1.0 

1.2 

1.2 

1.2 

1.2 

1.2 

1.2 

1.2 

1.2 

1.2 

1.2 

70-90 

70-90 

70-90 

70-90 

85 

85 

85 

70-90 

70 

85 

0.6 

0.6 

0.6 

0.6 

— 

— 

— 

0.6 

• 

__ 

30-day rolling-average; annual average is 30-day rolling-average/1.2. 

30-day rolling-average. 

"All coal types must be scrubbed. 

Lower sulfur coal types are not scrubbed. 
P.6 

TABLE 3. COMPLIANCE COAL TYPES 

Uncontrolled SO- emissions ceiling Compliance ICF coal type 

(lb7MMBtu)a (lb SO /MMBtu) 

1.0 A: <0.8 (0.8) 

1.2 A: < 0.8 (0.8) 

B: 0.8-1.08 (0.95) 

1.8 A: < 0.8 (0.8) 

B: 0.8-1.08 (0.95) 

D: 1.08-1.67 (1.45) 

2.6 A: < 0.8 (0.8) 

B: 0.8-1.08 (0.95) 

D: 1.08-1.67 (1.45) 

E: 1.67-2.50 (2.10) 

30-day, rolling-average. 

Annual average. The value in parentheses is the assumed sulfur 

dioxide emission rate for each coal type. The value in parentheses 

times 1.2 is less than the 30-day, rolling-average S0„ emissions 

ceiling in the first column. 
P.7 

TABLE 4. IFCAM RUN SEQUENCE 

Set 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

Sequence 

Number 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

11 

12 

13 

14 

15 

16 

17 

18 

19 

20 

21 

22 

23 

Year 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1990 

1995 

1995 

1995 

Scenario 

Base Case 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Base Case 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Option 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Case 

Base Case 

Option 

Option 

Case 

Case 

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

1 

2 

5 

6 

8 

3 

4 

10 

10 

1 

4 

Wet Scrubber 

PM Exemption 

M

 a 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

No 

Yesb 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

Yes 

No 

No 

No 

No 

See Table 1. No special coal PM emission regulation for wet FGD systems. 

Blocks the use of the dual alkali FGD/single mechanical collector system 

when the coal PM emission regulation is 0.05 lb/MMBtu. 

Coal PM emission regulation for wet FGD systems is 0.1 lb/MMBtu when the 

coal PM emission regulation in Table 1 is 0.05 lb/MMBtu. 
P.8 

TABLE 5. EIA PROJECTIONS OF REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL AND 

REFINERY FOSSIL FUEL DEMAND3 

(IO12 Btu) 

1. 

CM 3. 

4. 

5. 

6. 

7. 

8. 

9. 

10. 

11. 

Demand Region 

New England 

New York/New Jersey 

Middle Atlantic 

South Atlantic 

Midwest 

Southwest 

Central 

North Central 

West 

Northwest 

U.S. Total 

Industr 

1985 

196 

485 

897 

1,531 

2,217 

2,763 

595 

528 

695 

419 

10,326 

iai 

1990 

1 

2 

3 

11 

212 

513 

964 

,638 

,369 

,041 

633 

594 

774 

483 

,223 

Ref 

1985 

0 

43 

59 

44 

101 

482 

25 

32 

120 

31 

938 

inery 

1990 

0 

41 

54 

41 

94 

448 

24 

30 

111 

28 

871 

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. 1982 

Annual Energy Outlook, Middle World Oil Price (Case A). The regional 

distribution is unofficial and has not been reviewed by EIA. Sum of 

natural gas, distillate fuel oil, low and high sulfur residual fuel 

oil and steam coal.