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# OAR Box 1828 Prepped byOllie Stewart



## Document

Number: 

# 128 ) ll-K-(B)-11 8 Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 7

Printed 11/12/200811:12:52 AM Sheet 128of 325

# if ) \ 

## ENERG YAN D ENVIRONMENTA L ANALYSIS , IN C P. 2



### Jun e23 , 198 3 

# A-83 -

II-K-(B)-H 8

Mr . Rober t Shor t Economi c Analysi s Branc h U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc y Mai l Drop-1 2 Researc hTriangl e Park , N C 2771 1 Subject : EP AContrac t No . 68-02-3564 , Wor k Assignmen t # 9 Dea r Robert : Th e purpos e o f thi s lette r i s t o revie wth e scenario s fo r th e 199 0 an d 199 5 IFCA

Mprojection s o f th e nationa l impact s o f alternativ e SO „ NSP S regulation s fo r ne windustria l fossi l fuel-fire d boilers . Tabl e 1 summarize s th e Bas e Cas e scenari o fo r thi s se t o f runs . Tabl e 1 represent s th e propose d PM/N O NSP S ai r emissio nregulations . Not e tha t Tabl e 1 doe s no t includ e a specia l coa l P Memissio nregulatio n fo r we t .FG D systems . Th e P Man

d N O regulation s showni nTabl e 1 wil l b e hel d constan t fo r al l Optio n Cas e runs . I t i s als o assume d tha t th e residua l fue l oi l SO . NSP S ai r emissio nregulatio ni s 0. 8 lb/MMBt u fo r al l ne wresidua l fue l oi l boiler s i nal l Optio nCas e runs . Tabl e 2 list s th e alternativ e S0 ? NSP S ai r emissio nregulation s fo r ne w coal-fire d industria l boiler s whic hw e discusse d i nou r meetin g wit h ESE D an d Jud i Greenwal d o nMa y26 , 1983 . Not e tha t th e S0 2 percentag e remova l requirement s i nOptio nCase s 5- 7 an d 1 0 ar e se t a t 8 5 percen t sinc e th e uppe r limi t fo r SO
- remova l fo r a lime spraydrying FGD system i s assume d t o b e 8 7 percent . Tabl e 3 outline s th e basi s fo r selecting th e uncontrolle d S0 „ emission s ceiling s showni nTabl e 2 . The yar e designe d t o identif ydifferen t coa l type s a s "compliance " (scrubbing no t require d t o compl ywit hth e NSP S SO
- emissio nregulation ) coa l types . Tabl e 4 summarize s th e propose d IFCA Mru n sequenc e fo r th e 199 0 an d 199 5 Projections.fo r 199 5 hav e bee npostpone d unti l al l Otherwise , th e orde r showni n Tabl e 4 i s consisten t wit hth e schedul e propose d i nou r meetin g wit h ESE D an d Jud i Greenwal d o nMa y26 , 1983 . S0 „ impac t analyses . o f the 199 0 result s hav e bee nproduce d

Fr* . nnnmir s / Fnoinaorin nP. 3

Mr . Rober t Shor t Jun e 23 , 198 3 Pag e 2

Manyscenario s ar e schedule d t o b e ru ntwice : wit han d withou t th e dua l alkal i FGD/singl e mechanica l collecto r system . Thi s combine d SO„/P M contro l systemi s assume d no t t o b e abl e t o mee t a 0.0 5 lb/MMBt u P M emissio nregulation . Sinc e ther e i s no t likel yt o b e an ydemand fo r coa l i nne wlo wcapacit yutilizatio nrat e industria l boiler s i nth e IFCA Mprojections , thi s contro l technologywil l compet e onl yfo r ne w boiler s les s tha n10 0 MMBtu/h r i norde r t o compl ywit hth e 0. 2 l b PM/MMBt u NSP S regulatio nfo r coa l type s no t i ncomplianc e wit hSO
- SIP' s (se e Tabl e 1) . I t i s possibl e tha t ther e ma yb e littl e o r n o demand fo r thi s contro l technologyunles s th e coa l P MNSP S emissio nregulation s i n Tabl e 1 fo r larg e ne wboiler s ar e revise d t o 0. 1 l bPM/MMBt u fo r we t FGD systems . Therefore , run s numbe r 1 1 t o 1 9 i nTabl e 4 ar e propose d i n orde r t o evaluat e th e nationa l impact s o f a specia l P Memissio nregu latio nfo r we t FGD system s o nlarg e ne windustria l boilers . Arevise d energyscenari o wa s propose d i n a repor t prepare d byEE Afo r EP Adate d Jun e 8 , 1983 . Th e regiona l industria l energydemand projec

tion s recommende d i nth e Jun e 8t hrepor t ar e presente d i nTabl e 5 . Pleas e confirmo r correc t thes e assumption s a s soo na s possible . Sincerely ,

Ti mHoga n TH:mk Attachmen t
cc : A l Weh eTABL E 1 . BAS E CAS E NSP S AI REMISSION S REGULATIONS , (lb/MMBtu ) P. 4

Fue l typ e Siz e clas s (MMBtu/hr ) SO , P M NO

Natura l ga s Distillat e fue l oi l Residua l fue l oi l

Coa l 50-25 0 >25 0 50-25 0 >25 0 50-25 0 >25 0 50-10 0 100-25 0 >25 0 0.8 0

0.8 0

1.2 0 —

0.1 0
0.1 0 0.20/0 . 0.05/0 . 0.0 5 35 d 20 d 0.2 0

0.2 0 0.20 3 0.2 0 0.30/0.40 a ' b 0.3 0 0.60 a 0.60/0.70 a ' e 0.7 0
Ther e i s no NO emission s standard i f the expecte d capacit yutilizatio n rat e i s les s tnan3 0 percent . 0.3 0 i f the nitroge nconten t i s les s than0.3 5 percent ; 0.4 0 i f the nitroge nconten t i s greate r than0.3 5 percent . "0.2 0 i f the expecte d capacit yutilizatio nrat e i s greate r than3 0 per cent ; 0.3 5 i f the expecte d capacit yutilizatio nrat e i s les s than 3 0 percent . 0.0 5 i f the expecte d capacit yutilizatio nrat e i s greate r than3 0 per cent ; 0.2 0 i f the expecte d capacit yutilizatio nrat e i s les s than 3 0 percent . '0.6 0 fo r spreade r stokers ; 0.7 0 fo r pulverize d coa l boilers . 30-da yrolling-average .P. 5

TABL E 2 . ALTERNATIVE S O NSP S AI REMISSIONS'REGULATION S

FORNE WCOAL-FIRE D INDUSTRIAL BOILER S

Siz e Clas s Ceiling (lb/MMBtu ) % Remova l (MMBtu/hr ) Uncontrolle d Scrubbe d Require d Scenari o Floo r (lb/MMBtu ) Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 >1 0

>1 0 >1 0 >1 0 >1 0 >1 0 >1 0 >1 0 >1 0 >1 0 

### 1. 2



### 1.8 " 2. 6

1. 2 1. 8 1. 0

1. 0 1. 2

1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 1. 2 70-9 0

70-9 0 70-9 0 70-9 0 8 5 8 5 8 5 70-9 0 7 0 8 5 0. 6

0. 6 0. 6 0. 6

—

—

— 0. 6

•

_ _ 30-da yrolling-average ; annua l averag e i s 30-da yrolling-average/1.2 . 30-da yrolling-average . "Al l coa l type s mus t b e scrubbed . Lowe r sulfur coa l type s ar e no t scrubbed .P. 6

TABL E 3 . COMPLIANC E COA L TYPE S

Uncontrolle d SO
- emission s ceiling Complianc e IC F coa l typ e

(lb7MMBtu) a (lbS O /MMBtu ) 1. 0 A : <0. 8 (0.8 ) 1. 2 A : < 0. 8 (0.8 ) B : 0.8-1.0 8 (0.95 ) 1. 8 A : < 0. 8 (0.8 ) B : 0.8-1.0 8 (0.95 ) D : 1.08-1.6 7 (1.45 ) 2. 6 A : < 0. 8 (0.8 ) B : 0.8-1.0 8 (0.95 ) D : 1.08-1.6 7 (1.45 ) E : 1.67-2.5 0 (2.10 ) 30-day , rolling-average . Annua l average . Th e valu e i nparenthese s i s the assume d sulfur dioxid e emissio nrat e fo r eac hcoa l type . The valu e i nparenthese s time s 1. 2 i s les s thanthe 30-day , rolling-averag e S0 „ emission s ceiling i nthe firs t column .P. 7

TABL E 4 . IFCA

MRU NSEQUENC E

Se t 1

2

3

4

5 Sequenc e

Numbe r 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 Yea r

199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 0 199 5 199 5 199 5 Scenari o

Bas e Cas e Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Bas e Cas e Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Optio n Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Cas e Bas e Cas e Optio n Optio n Cas e Cas e 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 2 5 6 8 3 4 1 0 1 0
1 4 We t Scrubbe r

PMExemptio n

M a No N o N o No No N o N o N o No N o Yes b Ye s Ye s Ye s Ye s Ye s Ye s Ye s Ye s N o No No N o Se e Tabl e 1 . N o specia l coa l P Memissio nregulatio nfo r we t FGD systems . Block s the us e o f the dua l alkal i FGD/singl e mechanica l collecto r system whe nthe coa l P Memissio nregulatio ni s 0.0 5 lb/MMBtu . Coa l P Memissio nregulatio nfo r we t FGD system s i s 0. 1 lb/MMBt u whe nth e coa l P Memissio nregulatio ni nTabl e 1 i s 0.0 5 lb/MMBtu .P. 8

TABL E 5 . EI APROJECTION S O F REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL AND

REFINERYFOSSI L FUE L DEMAND 3

(IO 1 2 Btu )

1 .CM 3 . 4 . 5 . 6 . 7 . 8 . 9 . 10 . 11 . Demand Regio n Ne wEnglan

d Ne wYork/Ne wJersey Middl e Atlanti c Sout hAtlanti c Midwes t Southwes t Centra l Nort hCentra l Wes t Northwes t U.S . Tota l Indust r 198 5 19 6 48 5 89 7 1,53 1 2,21 7 2,76 3 59 5 52 8 69 5 41 9 10,32 6 ia i

199 0

1 2 3

1 1 21 2 51 3 96 4 ,63 8 ,36 9 ,04 1 63 3 59 4 77 4 48 3 ,22 3 Re f

198 5 0 4 3 5 9 4 4 10 1 48 2 2 5 3 2 12 0 3 1 93 8 iner

y 199 0 0 4 1 5 4 4 1 9 4 44 8 2 4 3 0 11 1 2 8 87 1 U.S . Departmen t o f Energy , EnergyInformatio nAdministration . 198 2 Annua l Energ

yOutlook , Middl e Worl d Oi l Pric e (Cas e A) . Th e regiona l distributio ni s unofficia l an d ha s no t bee nreviewe d b yEIA . Su

mo f natura l gas , distillat e fue l oil , lowan d highsulfu r residua l fue l oi l an d stea mcoal .