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Analysis & Projections

# 			Annual Energy Outlook			2023		

Release Date:					March 16, 2023				Next Release Date:					2025				AEO NarrativePDFAEO Narrative FiguresPPTX

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              -  						Overview					 
              -  						Data  -  									Reference Case								 
-  									Side Cases								 
-  									Interactive Table Viewer								 
 
              -  						Narrative  - 									Administrator's Foreword								
- 									Executive Summary								
- 									Introduction								
- 									The Electricity Mix in the United States Shifts from Fossil Fuels to Renewables								
- 									Technological Advancements and Electrification Decrease Demand-Side Energy Intensity								
- 									International Demand for Petroleum and Natural Gas Drives U.S. Production, While Domestic Consumption Either Grows Slowly or Decreases								
- 									Discussion								
- 									Appendix								
 

EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), which we use to produce our *Annual Energy Outlook*			(AEO), requires substantial updates to better model hydrogen, carbon capture, and other emerging			technologies. To facilitate these model enhancements, we will not publish an AEO in 2024. You can find more			information in our Statement on the *Annual					Energy Outlook* and EIA’s plan to enhance long-term modeling capabilities.			Update: Visit the AEO2025 Resource page for additional information.			

# Data Tables

              - Reference case tables
              - Available formats:   XLSX | INTERACTIVE | API 
              - Side case tables
              - Available formats:   XLSX | INTERACTIVE | API 

# Release Event

              - Release Event Presentation
              - The  Annual Energy Outlook  (AEO) presents an assessment by the U.S. Energy Information					Administration of the outlook for energy markets through 2050.
              - PDF  |  PPT |  webcast of							release 
              - Note: You can access chart data by right-clicking the chart in the PPT file.
              - Press release
              - View release    Issues in Focus- May 23, 2023
- Effects of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports on the U.S. Natural Gas Market
- March 16, 2023
- Inflation Reduction Act Cases in the AEO2023
    Narrative					Administrator's Foreword				
After a 23-year hiatus, I am reintroducing the Administrator’s Foreword as part of the *Annual					Energy Outlook* (AEO). The Foreword affords me an opportunity to provide context and outline				future				directions for one of our flagship products.				**More** ›
					Executive Summary				
Our *Annual Energy Outlook 2023* (AEO2023) explores long-term energy trends in the United States.				Since last year’s AEO, much has changed, most notably the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act				(IRA),				Public Law 117-169, which altered the policy landscape we use to develop our projections.				**More** ›
					Introduction				
The *Annual Energy Outlook 2023* (AEO2023) explores long-term energy trends in the United States.				Since we released the last AEO in early 2022, passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Public Law				117-169, altered the policy landscape we use to develop our projections. The Appendix in this report				explains our assumptions around IRA implementation and how we implemented the IRA in our AEO2023 cases.				We				are also releasing a separate Issues in Focus paper that explores how these assumptions affect our				model-based projections. We have seen significant national and international short-term market				volatility				associated with economic growth as the world reemerges from the COVID-19 pandemic and political				instability				associated with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We continuously monitor such developments				and				consider how they may affect our long-term projections.				**More** ›
					The Electricity Mix in the United States Shifts from Fossil Fuels to Renewables				
In this section, we discuss renewables displacing fossil fuels in the electric power sector.				**More** ›
					Technological Advancements and Electrification Decrease Demand-Side Energy Intensity				
Moderate growth in U.S. energy consumption is the result of economic growth, population growth, and				increased				travel offsetting continued energy efficiency improvements. Demand-side energy intensity—the				measure				of energy consumed per household or per square foot of commercial floorspace—decreases as a result				of				changes in technology, policy, consumer behavior, demographics, and fuel mix. In this section, we				quantify				the decreases in CO2 emissions intensity and demand-side energy intensity, and we discuss				equipment changes in the buildings sector, electrification in iron and steel production, and				technological				advancements and government standards in the transportation sector.				**More** ›
					International Demand for Petroleum and Natural Gas Drives U.S. Production, While Domestic Consumption Either Grows Slowly or Decreases				
Although U.S. consumption of petroleum products remains relatively flat, international demand supports				U.S.				exports of petroleum and other liquids (Figure 12). The dynamics of international trade affect domestic				production of natural gas and of petroleum and other liquids.				**More** ›
					Discussion				
Energy market projections are inherently uncertain because many of the events that will shape future				energy				markets—including developments in policy, technology, demographics, and resources—are not				known.				To illustrate the role of uncertainty, AEO2023 includes a baseline Reference case and several side cases				that systematically vary important underlying assumptions. Many sources of uncertainty exist beyond the				ones				we test explicitly, including new policy, unforeseen geopolitical events, and rapid technology				innovation,				particularly around technologies that are in the earliest stages of development.				**More** ›
					Appendix				
Case Descriptions **More**					›				Inflation Reduction Act assumptions in the Reference case and core side cases				**More** ›

Read the full					narrative ›
Top  Related Today in Energy articles- May 24, 2023
- EIA explores effects of liquefied natural gas exports						on the U.S. natural gas market
- May 15, 2023
- Incentives and lower costs drive electric vehicle						adoption in our *Annual Energy Outlook 2023*
- May 11, 2023
- EIA projects coal capacity will decrease in our						*Annual Energy Outlook 2023*
- April 13, 2023
- U.S. electric capacity mix shifts from fossil fuels to						renewables in AEO2023
- April 11, 2023
- U.S. associated natural gas production will likely grow						through 2050 in our AEO2023
- April 6, 2023
- EIA explores effects of Inflation Reduction Act on the						*Annual Energy Outlook*
- April 4, 2023
- U.S. production of petroleum and other liquids to be						driven by international demand
- April 3, 2023
- U.S. energy consumption increases between 0% and 15% by						2050
- March 16, 2023
- EIA projects that U.S. energy-related CO2						emissions will fall through 2050 in AEO2023
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