A Modeling Protocol for the OTC SIP Quality 

Modeling System for Assessment of the Ozone 

 National Ambient Air Quality Standard in 

 the Ozone Transport Region 

December 31, 2006 

The Modeling Committee of the 

Ozone Transport Commission
 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1 STUDY DESIGN 

1.1 Background...................................................................................6 

1.2 Objectives.....................................................................................6 

1.3 Photochemical Modeling System.......................................................6 

1.4 Deliverables..................................................................................7 

1.5 Schedule......................................................................................7 

2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE 

2.1 OTR Oversight Committee................................................................8 

2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup............................................8 

2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup............................................8 

2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup.................................8 

2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup....................................8 

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN

 

3.1 Description....................................................................................9 

3.2 Horizontal Grid Size........................................................................9 

 

3.2 Number of Vertical Layers................................................................9 

 

4 OZONE EPISODES 

4.1 EPA Episode Selection Criteria.........................................................9 

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure.............................................10 
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5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS

5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields...............................................................11 

5.2 Quality Assurance of MM5 Meteorological Fields..................................11 

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002 

6.1 2002 Emission Inventories for OTC States..........................................11 

 

6.2 2002 Emission Inventories for All Other OTR States..............................12 

 

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002 

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain.................12 

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain........12 

 

8 AIR QUALITY DATA 

8.1 Initial conditions..............................................................................12 

8.2 Boundary conditions........................................................................13 

 

8.3 Ambient Air Quality Data...................................................................13 

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES 

9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input Components.......................................13 

 

9.2 Diagnostic Tests..............................................................................13 

 

 

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 

10.1 Performance Criteria.......................................................................13 

10.2 Statistical Performance Measures......................................................14 
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11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2009 

11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTC States for 2009...............................15 

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all other OTR States for 2009....................15 

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2010 AND 2013 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN 

12.1 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain..................................15 

13 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY FOR THE OTR DOMAIN 

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs.............................................15 

13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs.....................................................16 

13.3 Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission Databases......................16 

13.4 OTR Domain Ozone Control Strategy.................................................16 

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES 

14.1 2009 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for OTR Domain.........16 

 

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009 

15.1 Initial Conditions.............................................................................16 

15.2 Boundary Conditions.......................................................................16 

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009 .......................................................17 

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for 2009........................................17 

16 DOCUMENTATION REPORT......................................................................17

17 REFERENCES..........................................................................................17
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APPENDIX A: Workgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality 

 Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air 

 Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region 

APPENDIX B: Work Plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality 

 Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air 

 Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region 
 6

1 STUDY DESIGN 

1.1 Background 

Moderate non-attainment areas in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) are required to attain the 

8-hour ozone NAAQS by 2010. Modeled or monitored attainment is based on the summer 

ozone season preceding 2010, so the target year for attainment modeling is 2009 for moderate 

non-attainment areas. The Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) has embarked on the task of 

preparing a State Implementation Plan (SIP) ozone modeling system for exercising 

photochemical grid model(s) to assess the impact of candidate ozone control strategies in 

moderate and serious non-attainment areas in the OTR. The OTC Directors endorsed the 

Modeling Protocol for the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone 

National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region at the November 12-13, 

2003 Fall meeting of the OTC. The subject protocol has been modified since then to 

incorporate CMAQ model modifications and emission inventory improvements. 

This modeling protocol outlines procedures to prepare and use the OTC SIP ozone modeling 

system to help design an ozone attainment strategy to attain the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the 

OTR. Emission inventories for point, area, on–road and off-road sources of NOx, VOC and CO 

will be developed for a base year of 2002. BEIS3 will be used to estimate biogenic emissions. 

MM5 will be used at a 12 km grid resolution and, in the photochemical grid model, 4 km grid 

cells will be nested in urban areas where appropriate. A model performance evaluation will be 

prepared for 2002. If model performance is satisfactory, emission input files reflecting candidate 

control strategy scenarios for 2009 will be prepared, and 2009 ozone levels will be simulated 

with the modeling system. OTC States with moderate and serious non-attainment areas will 

then use these modeling results to help support required ozone attainment demonstrations. 

However, it has become apparent that modeling at a higher resolution than 12 km is not 

possible without improvements in the modeling system in terms of the physical and chemical 

formulation as well as the need for development of emissions estimates at spatial resolutions 

higher than county-level estimates. 

1.2 Objective 

The New York Department of Environmental Conservation has agreed to be the lead agency 

for developing a SIP quality ozone modeling system for assessing the future year attainment 

of the ozone 8-hour NAAQS in the OTR. The CMAQ model will be used to evaluate the 

effectiveness of control strategies in the OTR Modeling Domain. The regulatory objective will be 

to design an ozone control strategy that will result in attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in 

moderate non-attainment areas by 2009. 

1.3 Photochemical Modeling System 

The OTC Modeling Committee in its prior work exercised both CMAQ and CAMx and noticed 

that even though these models had performed similarly in estimating ozone on an over-all basis, 

the level of agreement between the simulated and measured concentrations varied from good to 

bad depending on the model and depending upon the simulation day. So, as part of this 
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protocol, both models (which continue to be updated by their developers) will be applied for an 

episode that occurred in 2002. However, it was soon recognized that there was a need for 

application of a one-atmosphere modeling system that would provide estimates of both ozone 

and particulate matter and that the same base year emissions and meteorological data would be 

utilized in the development of appropriate SIPs. This together with USEPA’s launching of the 

CMAS center that provides a venue for sharing information from other modelers led the OTC 

modeling committee to select the CMAQ model for application in its SIP Quality Ozone Modeling 

System for testing the effectiveness of proposed control strategies in the OTR. 

The OTC Modeling Committee also examined the performances of two emissions processors 

(EMS2001 and SMOKE, both using CB4 chemistry) from prior work and concluded that there 

are differences between them that could be minimized by forcing the models to use a common 

speciation and surrogate database. Since CMAQ was the air quality model of choice, given that 

it handled inputs from SMOKE more readily than it did from the EMS2001 processor, the 

SMOKE emission processor was selected for constructing emission files for the SIP Quality 

Ozone Modeling System for the OTR Domain. 

1.4 Deliverables 

The key deliverables for the SIP quality ozone modeling system for the OTR are listed below. 

• Select Ozone Episodes 

• Prepare Meteorological Fields 

• Prepare 2002 Emission Inventories for each OTC State 

• Acquire 2002 Emission Inventories for non-OTC States in the OTR Domain 

• Prepare 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain 

• Complete 2002 Model Performance Evaluation for the OTR Domain 

• Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Inventories for each OTC State 

• Acquire 2009 CAA Emission Inventories for non-OTC States in the OTR Domain 

• Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain 

• Complete Modeling Runs for 2009 CAA Scenarios 

• Design Control Strategy for the OTR Modeling Domain. 

• Prepare 2009 Emission Input Files for OTR Control Strategy 

• Complete Modeling Runs for the OTR Control Strategy for 2009 

• Complete Evaluation Report for 2009 Control Strategy 

 

1.5 Schedule 

The schedule for developing the SIP quality modeling system and the assessment of the ozone 

NAAQS in the Ozone Transport Region is provided in Appendix A. Because of delays 

encountered in developing, integrating and processing state-of-the-art emission inventories from 

Regional Planning Organizations in the MANE-VU modeling domain, schedule target dates 

have been moved back approximately 9 months (complete Modeling TSD report in March of 

2007 instead of June of 2006). 
 8

2 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE 

 

2.1 OTR Oversight Committee (Appendix B) 

OTC Air Directors will serve as the OTR Oversight Committee. The Air Directors will ensure 

that 2002 and 2009 CAA emission inventories are prepared for each OTC state in the OTR 

Modeling Domain, and will also be responsible for obtaining emission inventories for the non 

OTR States that are part of the OTR Modeling Domain. The Air Directors will oversee the design 

of ozone control strategies for the OTR, and will make the final decision on any funding needed 

to develop the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System. The Air Directors will review all OTC SIP 

Quality Modeling System documentation before it is released to interested parties. The state 

members of the OTC Modeling Committee will keep Air Directors informed of the development 

of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System. 

 

2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup (Appendix B) 

 

OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup will be responsible for preparing the modeling 

assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the OTR. The Workgroup will be responsible for collecting 

and processing model input data, setting up all model input files, performing model runs, and 

interpreting and documenting the results of the modeling analyses for the OTR domain. 

The Workgroup will prepare and submit all OTC SIP quality modeling system documentation to 

the OTC Air Directors. 

2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup (Appendix B) 

 

The OTR Meteorological Modeling Workgroup will be responsible for preparing and assessing 

MM5 meteorological fields for the OTR Modeling Domain. This Workgroup will also work with 

the OTR Photochemical Modeling Workgroup to prepare all meteorological input files for the 

OTC SIP quality modeling system. 

2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup (Appendix B) 

The OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup will be responsible for obtaining and 

developing guidance for preparing 2002 and 2009 state emission inventories for all states in the 

OTR. The OTC Air Directors will be responsible for obtaining emission inventories for non-OTR 

states in the OTR Modeling Domain. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association 

(MARAMA) and the Mid-Atlantic /Northeast Visibility Union (MANE-VU) organizations will 

provide funding for contractors and work with OTR states to help prepare state-of-the-art 2002 

emission files, 2009 CAA emission files and 2009 Control Strategy emission files for the OTR 

Modeling Domain. 

2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup (Appendix B) 

The OTR Control Strategy Development Workgroup will be responsible for designing an ozone 

control strategy for the OTR Domain that will attain the ozone NAAQS by 2009 in moderate nonattainment areas and 2012 in serious non-attainment areas. The Workgroup will work with the 
 9

OTC stationary /area source committee and the OTC mobile source committee to design an 

effective ozone control strategy for the OTR domain. 

3 OTR MODELING DOMAIN 

3.1 Description 

The OTR modeling domain (see Figure 1) follows the national grid adopted by the Regional 

Haze Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs), but with focus on the eastern U.S. The areal 

extent of the domain was selected such that the northeastern areas of Maine are inside the 

domain. Based upon the existing computer resources, the southern and western boundaries 

were limited to the region shown in Figure 1. At a horizontal grid resolution of 12 km, there are 

172 grids in the east-west and 172 grids in north-south direction. Details of the modeling 

system setup can be found at ftp://ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/gsistla/otc-mm5-cmaqgrid-def.doc

3.2 Horizontal Grid Size 

Following EPA and as noted above, a 12 km grid resolution will be used for the domain. A

coarser mesh may not be appropriate for urban area applications. Modeling at a higher 

resolution than 12 km will not be performed at this time; to do would require improvements in the 

modeling system in terms of the physical and chemical formulation as well as the need for 

development of emissions at a higher spatial resolution than that for the currently available 

county-level estimates. 

3.3 Number of Vertical Layers 

Similar to the horizontal grid spacing which is fixed by the default set forth in the design of the 

meteorological model, in this case 12 km, the definition of the vertical structure could also be 

adopted one-to-one based upon the meteorological model which has 29 layers. However, given 

the computational resources and runtime needs the number of vertical layers in the 

photochemical model was limited to 22, of which the lower 16 layers (approximately 3km) were 

set one-to-one with those of the meteorological model. 

 

4 OZONE EPISODES 

4.1 Episode Selection Criteria 

Since it would be impractical to model every violation day, EPA has recommended targeting a 

select group of episode days for ozone attainment demonstrations. Such episode days should 

be (1) meteorologically representative of typical high ozone exceedance days in the domain, 

and (2) so severe that any control strategies predicted to attain the ozone NAAQS for that 

episode day would also result in attainment for all other exceedance days. 
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Figure 1: OTC Modeling Domain with areal extent of 12km and 36km grids 

 

 

 

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure 

While the above-suggested approach is perhaps feasible for isolated urban areas, such an 

approach may not be meaningful given the areal extent of concern and the modeling domain. 

Also, selection of episodes from different years would require the generation of the 

meteorological fields and emissions database, which would be an extremely difficult proposition 

given the modeling domain. The 2002 ozone season had a significant number of exceedance 

days (the spatial distribution of the daily 1-hr and 8-hr maxima over the eastern U. S. can be 

examined at the site ftp://ftp.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/htdocs/index.html). It was decided that 

the 5-month ozone season of 2002 would be simulated with the OTC SIP Quality Modeling 

System which will involve investigating numerous ozone episodes and would provide for better 

assessment of the simulated pollutant fields. The Environ report “Determination of 

Representativeness of 2002 Ozone Season for Ozone Transport Region SIP Modeling” 

demonstrated that 2002 episode days are (1) meteorologically representative of typical high 

ozone exceedance days in the domain, and (2) are probably so severe that control strategies 

predicted to attain the ozone NAAQS for those episode day would also result in attainment for 

all other exceedance days. 
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5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS 

5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields 

The MM5 setup has been described by Zhang (2000) for generating meteorological fields based 

on a modified Blackadar scheme for the boundary layer. Since there are a variety of options 

that can be exercised in the application of MM5, initial testing was performed for a high ozone 

event of 2002 with the most commonly used default options as well as with modified boundary 

layer schemes (Zhang and Zheng 2004). A set of options was selected and used by Prof. Zhang 

of UMD in consultation with NYDEC Staff for running MM5 for the 2002 5-month ozone season. 

5.2 Quality Assurance of Meteorological Fields 

As a part of this effort, the simulated meteorological fields will be compared to data collected 

under CASTNET as well as with observations from the National Weather Service (NWS). Prior 

experience has shown that these approaches provide for an independent assessment of the 

simulated meteorological conditions. Also, data from any other special measurements will be 

sought and compared with the simulated fields. This analysis should provide a degree of 

confidence in the simulated meteorological fields and their use in photochemical grid modeling. 

This work will be coordinated through the meteorological model work group. 

6 BASE CASE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002 

6.1 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for OTC states 

Each state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2002 base year emission Inventory that include 

VOC, NOx, and CO for a typical ozone summer day. States are to follow EPA guidance 

documents for this base year inventory, which is due to EPA by June 1, 2004. Note this 

inventory may also qualify as the consolidated emissions regulatory report (CERR). 

Emissions for all categories will be estimated for each county and state and the seasonal factors 

will facilitate spatial and temporal adjustments for modeling. Point and area source data will be 

submitted by individual states to EPA for uploading to EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI) 

database using the required EPA format. MOBILE6.2 input files and VMT data will be submitted 

to NEI so that EPA can generate on-road mobile emissions for each state by county in a format 

that can be easily gridded and speciated. Similarly, off-road input files will be sent to EPA for 

running the latest NONROAD model. 

It is anticipated that these state inventories will follow the EPA prescribed approach and should 

be formatted in a consistent manner. While this protocol deals with 8-hr ozone issues, the 

inventory would also contain the necessary information for exercising the particulate option of 

the photochemical model. This would be of help in those cases where the one-atmosphere 
 12

option is to be exercised in the assessment. Biogenic emissions will be estimated with EPA’s 

BEIS-3 emissions model. 

6.2 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for All Other States in the OTR Domain 

A 2002 base year emission inventory that includes VOC, NOx, and CO for a typical ozone 

summer day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the OTR domain. It is anticipated that 

these inventories will be developed following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a 

consistent manner. 

 

7 BASE CASE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002 

7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain 

Emissions data will be processed using SMOKE. The surrogate data files for the OTR grid have 

been previously developed by NY DEC and will be used in this study. For those pollutants that 

depend upon ambient temperature, MM5 layer-1 gridded temperature fields will be used. 

7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain 

The processing of the emissions data will include several quality checks before the data are 

exercised in the simulations. Prior experience has shown that considerable time and resources 

are often invested in developing the gridded emissions data. While there are many avenues to 

improve or correct the data, based upon consensus of the OTC Photochemical Modeling 

Workgroup, a definite closure of the emissions processing will be adhered to and any further 

changes or corrections will be archived and incorporated at a later date. In performing this 

work, close attention will be paid to the emissions within the OTR and, if necessary, corrections 

will be incorporated on the advice of the OTC Photochemical Modeling Workgroup.

Biogenic emissions will be prepared for each episode day using BEIS-3. The temperature data 

from MM5 layer-1 will be used along with cloud cover information obtained from MM5. 

8 AIR QUALITY DATA 

8.1 Initial Conditions 

Prior experience has shown that a 3-day ramp-up period is sufficient to establish pollutant levels 

that are encountered in the beginning of the ozone episode. In this application clean conditions 

will be assumed for the 1st hour of the simulation along with the emissions and boundary 

conditions as described below. Since the application was to be in one-atmosphere mode using a 

common platform, it was determined that a longer ramp-up period of 15 days was needed 

because experiments indicated that some of the PM2.5 species from the initial conditions (IC) 

were retained for ramp-up periods of 10 days or less. Thus the CMAQ model run will start on 

May 1, 2002; the first 15 days are assumed to be ramp-up days and will not used for 

performance evaluation purposes. 
 13

8.2 Boundary Conditions 

In prior studies attempts were made to include any available information from ozonesondes and 

monitors that are near the western and northern boundaries of the modeling domain. For this 

study, similar attempts will be made to obtain pollutant data at the boundaries. 

 

For boundary conditions, NY DEC will run CMAQ with the continental 36 km grid using GEOSCHEM simulation data for 2002. The GEOS-CHEM information will be obtained by NESCAUM 

from Prof. Daniel Jacob's group of Harvard University. Hour by hour boundary conditions will 

then be extracted from the continental 36 km CMAQ run results and used for the OTR 12 km 

modeling domain. 

 

8.3 Ambient Air Quality Data 

Ambient air quality data will be extracted from the EPA AQS archive for ozone, CO, NOx, and 

total and speciated hydrocarbons reported as part of the PAMS network. Also, data from 

CASTNET will be obtained. Since the OTR modeling domain extends over two time zones, 

while the model simulations are reflective of a single time zone, EST, there will be a need to 

”correct” the clock and assemble the ambient air quality database. Any special measurements 

that are relevant to this study during the summer of 2002 will also be acquired, including upper 

air measurements. 

9 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSES 

9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input Components 

 

Before proceeding with modeling, all air quality, emissions, and meteorological data will be 

reviewed to ensure completeness, accuracy, and consistency. Any errors, missing data or 

inconsistencies will be addressed using appropriate methods that are consistent with standard 

practices. 

9.2 Diagnostic Tests 

 

Attempts will be made to perform diagnostic tests to ensure that the simulated ozone patterns 

are in agreement with observed patterns over the entire simulation period. While it is unrealistic 

to expect day-to-day agreement between the measured and predicted data, close attention will 

be paid to the changes in pattern of the measured ozone levels and the ability of the model to 

capture such changes. 

10 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION 

10.1 Performance Criteria 
 14

This is an area that will likely require dialog among member states. While there are many 

statistical tests that can be applied to predicted ozone concentrations, it is important to define a 

priori some of the conditions of the analysis and the targets of evaluation. Also, it is important to 

define the areal extent for which the assessment needs to be done to address the performance 

of the model. Statistical tests are to be applied to the precursor data as well, recognizing that all 

tests applied to the ozone data may or may not be valid. 

As part of the model assessment, qualitative analysis will also be performed by comparing 

predicted and measured pollutant fields to establish if the spatial patterns are captured by the 

modeling system. This is a critical step, since the measured concentrations may fall into a 

neighboring grid cell (but not at the measured location itself) and may be found to be in good 

agreement. 

Another area that is quite important is the predictive ability of the model with respect to height. 

Recognizing that the pollutants trapped above the mixed layer during the overnight hours would 

mix down during the daytime, comparison will be made between measurements and model 

predictions. Special attention will be paid to elevated monitoring stations, such as the television 

tower near Durham, North Carolina; the Sears Tower in Chicago, Illinois, and monitors located 

at elevated rural stations at Whiteface Mountain, NY. 

10.2 Statistical Performance Measures 

The recommended EPA procedures will be used to calculate the recommended performance 

measures. At a minimum, the following three statistical performance measures will be used to 

assess CAMx model performance for each episode. 

• Unpaired highest-prediction accuracy 

 This measure quantifies the difference between the highest observed eight-hour 

 value in the domain and the highest predicted value in the domain. The acceptable 

 performance range is plus or minus 15-20 percent. 

 

• Normalized bias 

 This measure indicates the degree to which simulated eight-hour values are over or 

 under-predicted. The acceptable performance range is plus or minus 5-15 percent. 

 

• Gross error of all pairs above 40 ppb 

 This measure indicates the average discrepancy between predicted and observed 

 values and provides an overall assessment of model performance. The 

 acceptable performance range is 30-35 percent. 
 15

11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2009 

11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTR States for 2009 

Each OTC state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2009 CAA emission inventory that is 

consistent with the regulations and rules adopted or expected to be in-place. The inventory will 

be developed consistent with EPA guidance. The states will develop the information on growth 

factors and controls used in the development of the inventory. Each state will submit a report on 

the development of these future year inventories. 

Since the electric energy generation and use are highly inter-connected, coupled with the 

existing rules on trading and banking of pollutants, it is expected that an inventory consistent 

with this information would be developed for all electric energy generation units using models

such as IPM.

Recognizing that any prediction of future emissions are subject to changes, the OTC Modeling 

Committee would develop a decision framework on obtaining these emissions to be consistent 

with the OTC SIP quality modeling system schedule (Appendix A). 

11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all non-OTR States for 2009 

A 2009 CAA emission inventory that includes VOC, NOx, and CO for a typical ozone summer 

day will be obtained for all non-OTC states in the OTR. It is anticipated that these inventories 

will be developed following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent manner. 

12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2009 FOR THE OTR DOMAIN 

12.1 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain for 2009 

2009 CAA emissions data will be processed using SMOKE. For pollutants that depend on 

ambient temperature, MM5 layer-1 gridded temperature fields will be used to estimate hourly 

emission rates. The biogenic emission input files prepared for the base 2002 will be used as a 

surrogate for 2009 biogenic emissions. These emissions data will be processed using the 

quality assurance checks described in section 7.2. 

It should be noted that the CAA means all on the books and on the way control measures 

(OTB/OTW) scheduled to be in effect by 2009. 

13 OTR DOMAIN OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY 

13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs 

A series of CALGRID screening runs will be performed to investigate the level of emissions 

reductions needed both within and outside of the OTR. This will help identify potential emission 

reductions scenarios that can be used for CMAX future year SIP modeling runs. 
 16

13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs 

OTC SIP modeling platform CAA runs for 2009 will be reviewed to help determine the level of 

emissions reductions needed to attain the ozone NAAQS. VOC and NOX sensitivity runs will 

also be performed to help identify potential emission reductions scenarios that can be used to 

lower ozone levels in the OTR. 

13.3 Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission Databases 

A review of air quality and emission databases (for example, EPA Clear Skies and Transport 

Rule emission files) will be performed to help identify potential source sectors of ozone 

precursors. Analysis of available EPA modeling results will also be performed to help identify 

potential source sectors of ozone precursors in, and upwind, of the OTR domain. 

13.4 Ozone Control Strategy for the OTR Domain 

The OTR Control Strategy Development Team will review CALGRID results, other available 

databases, and EPA databases, to help identify potential control programs. The Team will work 

with OTR states and the OTC stationary, area and mobile source committees to design ozone 

control strategies for the OTR Domain with the goal of meeting regulatory target dates. 

14 OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES 

14.1 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain for 2009 

Emissions files for the selected ozone control strategy for the OTR Domain for 2009 will be 

prepared in a consistent manner as per schedule. If necessary, additional IPM simulations may 

be performed to obtain EGU emission estimates. 

 

15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009 

15.1 Initial Conditions 

The initial conditions at the startup will be “clean”. The OTR Modeling Team will use the 2002 

initial condition files as a surrogate for initial conditions for 2009 modeling runs. 

15.2 Boundary conditions 

EPA will be consulted for guidance in estimating boundary conditions for 2009 or, under default, 

would utilize those adapted for the Base 2002 base year simulation. It should be noted that the 

default option was used for the 2009 CMAQ simulation. 
 17

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009 

The model will be run with the CAA emission files developed for 2009. Tile plots, 

difference plots, and model statistics will be prepared to help characterize the extent of 

any remaining non-attainment areas predicted in the OTR in 2009. 

15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for 2009. 

The model will be run with OTR control strategy emission files prepared for 2009. Tile plots, 

difference plots and model statistics will be prepared to help characterize the extent of any 

remaining non-attainment areas predicted in the OTR for the year 2009. 

16 DOCUMENTATION 

A report titled “Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards in the Ozone 

Transport Region will be prepared by the OTR Modeling Team”. The report would cover model 

performance evaluation, and an evaluation of the OTR control strategy runs for 2009. This 

technical document will be made available to all interested parties and will be used by the 

member States in their SIP submission documentation as needed. 

17 REFERENCES 

Environ (2006): Determination of Representativeness of 2002 Ozone Season for Ozone 

Transport Region SIP Modeling 

Dalin Zhang (2000): Development of meteorological database for summer 1997 using MM5 at 

12 km resolution in Photochemical Model Simulations 

Dalin Zhang and William Zheng (2004): Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as 

simulated by five boundary-layer parameterizations, Journal of Appl. Meteorology 43, 157-169 

Gopal Sistla (1999): Development of a surrogate database for use in Regional/Urban-scale 

Modeling at 4 km spatial resolution (see http://envpro.ncsc.org/emcenter/) 

Wick Havens (2000): Development of an Emissions Inventory for Regional/Urban-scale 

Modeling, MARAMA-RTC (see http://www.marama.org/) 
 18

APPENDIX A

Workgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System for 

Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region 
 19

OTC Photochemical Modeling Workgroup

State Lead Gopal Sistla 

OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz 

Chair OTC Modeling Committee Barbara Kwetz 

 

Delaware Mohammed Majeed 

DC Rama Tangirala 

Maine Tom Downs 

Maryland Mike Woodman 

Massachusetts Steve Dennis 

New Hampshire Jeff Underhill 

 

New York Gopal Sistla 

Pennsylvania Tim Leon Gurrero 

 

NESCAUM Gary Kleiman 

EPA Invited for selected discussions 
 20

OTC Meteorological Modeling Workgroup

State Lead Mike Woodman 

OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz 

Connecticut Dave Wackter 

 

Delaware Mohammed Majeed 

DC Rama Tangirala 

Maine Tom Downs 

Maryland Tad Aburn 

 Matt Seybold 

 Mike Woodman 

 Jeff Stehr 

Massachusetts Rich Fields 

New Hampshire Jeff Underhill 

New Jersey Alan Dresser 

 

New York Gopal Sistla 

Pennsylvania Tim Leon Gurrero 

Vermont Paul Wishinski 

Virginia Kirit Chaudhar 

MARAMA Serpil Kayin 

 

NESCAUM Gary Kleiman 

EPA Invited for selected discussions 
 21

OTC Emission Inventory Development Workgroup

State Lead Ray Malenfant 

OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz 

Connecticut Bill Simpson 

Delaware Dave Fees 

DC Rama Tangirala 

Maine Dave Wright 

Maryland Roger Thgunell 

Massachusetts Ken Santlal 

New Hampshire Mike Fitzgerald 

Andy Bodnarik 

New Jersey Joan Held 

New York Jim Ralston 

Pennsylvania Dean Van Orden 

Rhode Island Karen Slattery 

Vermont Jeff Merrell 

Virginia Tom Ballou 

MARAMA Serpil Kayin 

EPA Invited for selected discussions 
 22

OTC/MANE-VU Control Strategies Workgroup

State Lead Jeff Underhill 

OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz 

Connecticut Dave Wackter 

 Kurt Kebschull 

Delaware Ray Malenfant 

 Mohammed Majeed 

Maine Jeff Crawford 

 Tom Downs 

Maryland Tad Aburn 

 Matt Seybold 

 Mike Woodman 

 Jeff Stehr 

Massachusetts Eileen Hiney 

 Steve Dennis 

New Hampshire Jeff Underhill 

Andy Bodnarik 

New Jersey Bob Stern 

 Ray Papalski 

 Alan Dresser 

 Robert Huizer 

New York Gopal Sistla 

Pennsylvania Wick Havens 

 Tim Leon Gurrero 

Rhode Island Barbara Morin 

Vermont Paul Wishinski 

Virginia Kirit Chaudhar 

MARAMA Serpil Kayin 

 Megan Schuster 

NESCAUM Leah Weiss 

 Gary Kleiman 

EPA Invited for selected discussions 
 23

APPENDIX B

Work Plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System. 
Work plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System†

Task 

No. Activity or Task 

Initial 

Target

Date 

Organization(s) 

Performing Task 

Remarks & Status 

Notes & Revisions 

Initial Planning

1 Prepare a Work plan and a Modeling Protocol for the 

development of the OTC SIP quality modeling system to 

address ozone non-attainment problems in the OTR. 

Nov 03 NY, MA Completed 

Meteorology

2 

3 

4 

Complete MM5 modeling for 2002 (May thru Sep) 

Episode evaluation and assessment 

Evaluate MM5 data and process for photochemical 

models. 

Dec 04 

Dec 04 

Mar 05 

MD (UMCP), NY 

Contract Support 

MD (UMCP), NY 

In progress 

In progress 

Inn progress 

Emissions Inventories

5 

6 

7 

8 

Prepare 2002 emission inventories for MANEVU states in 

the OTR Domain. 

Obtain 2002 emission inventories for non-MANEVU 

states in the OTR Domain. 

Prepare 2009 CAA emission inventories for MANEVU 

states in the OTR Domain. 

Obtain 2009 CAA emission inventories for non-MANEVU 

states in the OTR Domain. 

Jan 05 

Jan 05 

Aug 05 

Aug 05

MARAMA 

MARAMA 

MARAMA 

MARAMA 

Emission Input files

9 

10 

11 

Prepare 2002 emission files for the OTR domain with 

SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data. 

Prepare 2009 CAA emission files for the OTR domain 

with SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data. 

Prepare 2009 emission files for OTR control strategy with 

SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data. 

Nov 04 

Nov 05 

 

Nov 05 

NY 

NY 

NY 

Delayed until Jan 05 
 2

Task 

No. Activity or Task 

Initial 

Target 

Date 

Organization(s) 

Performing Task 

Remarks & Status 

Notes & Revisions 

Modeling 

12 

13 

14 

15 

Complete 2002 model performance evaluation for OTR 

Domain. 

Test model sensitivity to NOx, VOC reductions and 

potential control measure options. 

Complete modeling runs for 2009 CAA scenarios. 

Complete modeling runs for 2009 OTR control strategy

May 05 

Sep 05 

Jan 06 

Jan 06 

NY 

NY 

NY 

NY 

OTR Control Strategy Development

16 

17 

18 

Perform screening runs with OTC CALGRID modeling 

system 

Review air quality and emission databases to help 

identify potential sources of ozone in the OTR. 

Design Control Strategy for the OTR Domain 

Mar 05 

Jul 05 

Sep 05 

 

 

OTR Control Strategy 

Development 

Workgroup 

OTR Control Strategy 

Development 

Workgroup 

OTR Control Strategy 

Development 

Workgroup 

Reports

19 Complete technical support documents presenting 

regional OTR modeling and air quality/emission 

database analyses. (These two documents will 

provide technical support for state ozone SIPs. 

Jun 06 NY, other OTC states This will allow states nine 

months to prepare SIP 

revisions due in April 

2007. 

Management 

20 

21 

Day-to-day management and coordination. 

Provide direction, oversight, and obtain any necessary 

funding. 

on-going 

on-going 

OTC Modeling 

Committee 

OTC Air Directors 

†

 To be used as needed for Ozone SIPs in the OTR. Based on EPA draft guidance, Ozone SIPs expected submission by 

April 2007.