Table 29

Descriptive Statistics: Men and Women Eligible for Treatment

Background Characteristics Men Women

Race (n=2219)

 African-American 34.3% 46.4%

 White 62.6% 50.9%

 Other 3.1% 2.7%

Ethnicity (n=2219)

 Hispanic 11.2% 11.1%

Prior commitment (n=2219) 69.5% 43.3%

Severity of Offense (n=2219)

 Low 22.3% 28.2%

 Moderate 42.2% 46.6%

 High 14.9% 15.9%

 Greatest 20.6% 9.3%

Average age at time of commitment (n=2219) 34.0 32.8

Average age at time of first arrest (n=2173) 21.3 24.2

Family ties (n=2212)

 Average/good 92.8% 85.4%

History of violence (n=2219)

 Recent - less than 5 years 14.4% 7.2%

 Past - 5 or more years ago 32.0% 6.6%

 No history of violence 53.6% 86.2%

Average sentence length (months) (n=2219) 82.3 40.1 

Ever legally married (n=2215) 42.6% 39.6%

Level of education - average # years (n=2209) 12.1 11.5 

Ever support self primarily through illegal means (n=2202) 37.6% 42.4%

 for at least one year
Table 29 - continued

Descriptive Statistics: Men and Women Eligible for Treatment

Men Women

Employment status in month before incarceration (n=2219)

 Not in work force month 4.0% 7.6%

 Employed part or full-time 53.3% 37.3%

 Looking for work 9.1% 9.7%

 Illegal income, other reason unemployed,

 never employed 31.24% 42.5%

 Unknown employment status 2.4% 2.9%

Drug Use and Drug Treatment History

Daily Drug Use in Year Before Arrest (n=2070)

 No daily use during year before arrest 34.8% 27.4%

 Alcohol only 19.2% 8.8%

 Marijuana only 15.6% 13.0%

 One or more illicit drugs other than marijuana 30.4% 50.8%

History of previous drug treatment (n=2219) 33.8% 40.4%

History of quitting drug/alcohol use (n=2181)

 N/A - never used daily 2.0% 2.7% 

 Tried to quit alcohol use 5.6% 1.9%

 Tried to quit illicit drug use 64.8% 70.8% 

 Did not ever try to quit drug use 27.6% 24.6%

Psychiatric Diagnoses (n=2030)

 Neither diagnosis: ASP or depression 55.6% 50.4%

 Diagnosis of depression only 7.9% 19.3%

 Diagnosis of ASP only 28.4% 17.0%

 Diagnosis of both ASP and depression 8.1% 13.3%

Exposure to Treatment

Average probability of volunteering (n=2219) .24 .31

Average amount of time spent at DAP site (days) (n=2219) 553.4 426.0
Table 29 - continued

Descriptive Statistics: Men and Women Eligible for Treatment

Men Women

Family Characteristics

 Plan to live with minor children after release (n=2177) 38.1% 59.6%

 History of sexual abuse (n=2205) 9.8% 47.4%

 History of physical abuse before age 18 (n=2201) 15.3% 31.1%

 Spouse ever had a drug problem (n=2212) 28.1% 64.5%

Internal Motivation

Precontemplation (n=1492) 2.24 2.03

Contemplation (n=1601) 4.02 4.20

Action (n=1602) 4.02 4.19

Maintenance (n=1478) 3.37 3.56

Planning subscale - Ways of Coping (n=1746) 3.31 3.40

Hope Scale (n=1864)

 Agency 11.90 11.33

 Pathway 11.78 11.26

External Motivation - Sentence Reduction Incentive (n=2219)

Before year off provision 80.8% 54.2%

Year off provision - no time 2.4% 8.2%

Year off - 1 to 5 months 8.1% 19.0%

Year off - 5+ months 8.7% 18.6%
Table 30 

Treatment Entry: Men and Women: Maximum Likelihood Probit

 Men Women

Est. s.e. Est. s.e.

Background Characteristics

 African-American 0.021 0.118 0.403 0.216

 Other race -0.079 0.206 -0.254 0.384

 Hispanic -0.102 0.087 -0.096 0.154

 History of prior commitment(s) -0.076 0.066 0.079 0.108

 Severity of offense - moderate 0.203 0.080 ** -0.337 0.140 *

 Severity of offense - high -0.167 0.110 0.018 0.196

 Severity of offense - greatest 0.005 0.108 0.288 0.246

 Age at time of commitment -0.014 0.007 -0.018 0.016

 Age of first arrest 0.014 0.007 0.037 0.015 *

 Family ties - average/good -0.281 0.088 ** 0.258 0.121 *

 History of violence - recent -0.101 0.099 -0.231 0.237

 History of violence - past -0.013 0.085 -0.377 0.261

 Sentence length (months) 0.000 0.000 -0.003 0.003

 Ever legally married 0.037 0.062 -0.145 0.103

 Level of education -0.072 0.024 ** -0.101 0.042 *

 Supported oneself through illegal means -0.097 0.057 0.037 0.098

 Employed at time of incarceration 0.066 0.111 0.296 0.181

 Not in work force at time of incarceration -0.131 0.199 0.636 0.307 *

 Unemployed at time of incarceration -0.046 0.154 -0.266 0.248

 Unknown employ. status upon incarceration 0.235 0.301 -0.729 0.422

Drug Use and Drug Treatment History

 Daily use of alcohol only before arrest -0.012 0.149 1.170 0.505 *

 Daily use of pot only before arrest -0.108 0.111 -0.518 0.253 *

 Daily use of pot and other illicit drug before arrest 0.083 0.104 -0.021 0.234

 Previous drug treatment -0.050 0.056 0.067 0.098

 Ever try to quit using drugs - not applicable 0.080 0.330 -0.127 0.354

 Ever try to quit alcohol use -0.105 0.205 n/a n/a

Ever try to quit using illicit drug -0.090 0.152 -0.060 0.218

Psychiatric Diagnoses

 Diagnosis of depression only 0.008 0.167 -0.465 0.207 *

 Diagnosis of antisocial personality (ASP) only -0.075 0.104 0.176 0.230

 Diagnoses of both ASP and depression -0.220 0.154 -0.470 0.226 *

 No diagnosis of ASP or depression 0.031 0.095 0.368 0.161 *
Table 30 - continued

 Men Women

Est. s.e. Est. s.e.

Exposure to Treatment

 Individual probability of volunteering coefficient -8.108 2.470 ** -4.099 2.252

 Square of indiv. probability of volunteering 19.890 4.500 ** 4.733 2.850

 Total time spent at DAP site 0.000 0.000 -0.002 0.000 **

 Probability of volunteering x time at DAP site 0.000 0.001 0.011 0.003 **

Family Characteristics

 Plan to live with minor children after release 0.146 0.056 ** 0.220 0.100 *

 History of sexual abuse n/a n/a -0.072 0.096

 History of physical abuse before age 18 -0.022 0.070 0.202 0.105 *

 History of spouse with drug problem 0.104 0.059 0.049 0.096

Internal Motivation

 Precontemplation -0.498 0.090 ** -0.565 0.184 **

 Contemplation 0.642 0.177 ** 0.554 0.324

 Action -0.041 0.169 -0.491 0.290

 Maintenance 0.315 0.105 ** 0.487 0.209 *

 Missing Change assessment/Hope scale 0.966 0.353 ** 0.208 0.683

 Agency (Hope scale) -0.011 0.027 -0.018 0.048

 Pathway (Hope scale) 0.000 0.029 -0.076 0.049

 Planning subscale - Ways of Coping -0.084 0.081 -0.023 0.168

 Ways of coping data missing 0.288 0.169 -0.064 0.346

External motivation - Sentence Reduction

 Year off - no time -0.564 0.202 ** -0.143 0.235

 Year off - 1 to 5 months -0.502 0.148 ** -0.228 0.171

 Year off - 5 to 12 months -0.041 0.164 -0.220 0.205

 Constant -0.705 0.606 0.771 1.059

X

2

/df 396.844(50) 241.782(50)

* p<.05 ** p<.01
Table 31

Treatment Entry and Completion: Men and Women: Maximum Likelihood Probit

 Men Women

Est. s.e. Est. s.e.

Background Characteristics

 African-American -0.087 0.098 0.321 0.196

 Other race 0.116 0.173 -0.473 0.350

 Hispanic 0.027 0.073 0.078 0.134

 History of prior commitment(s) -0.049 0.051 -0.132 0.093

 Severity of offense - moderate 0.099 0.065 -0.251 0.120 * 

 Severity of offense - high -0.098 0.090 0.092 0.170

 Severity of offense - greatest 0.237 0.091 ** 0.506 0.212 *

 Age at time of commitment 0.013 0.006 * -0.003 0.014

 Age of first arrest -0.002 0.006 0.031 0.013 *

 Family ties - average/good -0.196 0.073 ** 0.163 0.102

 History of violence - recent -0.235 0.079 ** -0.254 0.220

 History of violence - past 0.070 0.070 0.119 0.220

 Sentence length (months) -0.001 0.000 * -0.004 0.003

 Ever married 0.027 0.048 -0.038 0.089

 Level of education -0.019 0.018 -0.037 0.037

 Supported oneself through illegal means -0.030 0.046 -0.040 0.088

 Employed at time of incarceration -0.030 0.085 0.210 0.166

 Not in work force at time of incarceration -0.078 0.159 0.123 0.271

 Unemployed at time of incarceration 0.175 0.126 -0.288 0.240

 Unknown employ. status upon incarceration 0.032 0.216 -0.311 0.436

Drug Use and Drug Treatment History

 Daily use of alcohol only before arrest -0.010 0.109 -0.429 0.299

 Daily use of pot only before arrest 0.029 0.089 0.247 0.209

 Daily use of pot and other illicit drug before arrest 0.092 0.079 0.297 0.170

 Previous drug treatment -0.094 0.045 * 0.090 0.086

 Every try to quit drug use/ not applicable -0.205 0.163 -0.111 0.301

 Every try to quit drug use 0.038 0.100 0.246 0.188

Psychiatric Diagnoses

 Diagnosis of depression only 0.137 0.133 -0.262 0.191

 Diagnosis of antisocial personality (ASP) only 0.043 0.083 0.459 0.179 **

 Diagnoses of both ASP and depression -0.119 0.133 -0.428 0.198 *

 No diagnosis of ASP or depression 0.153 0.075 * 0.381 0.138 **

Table 31- continued
 Men Women

Est. s.e. Est. s.e.

Exposure to Treatment

 Individual probability of volunteering coefficient 3.042 1.354 * 7.205 1.668 **

 Square of indiv. probability of volunteering 1.648 2.967 -7.887 2.172 **

 Total time spent at DAP site 0.001 0.000 ** -0.001 0.000

 Probability of volunteering x time at DAP site 0.000 0.001 0.010 0.002 **

Family Characteristics

 Plan to live with minor children after release 0.149 0.045 ** 0.142 0.083

 History of sexual abuse n/a n/a -0.073 0.083

 History of physical abuse before age 18 -0.105 0.056 0.033 0.094

 History of spouse with drug problem 0.043 0.047 -0.003 0.088

Internal Motivation

 Precontemplation -0.395 0.075 ** -0.382 0.164 *

 Contemplation 0.454 0.149 ** 0.346 0.319

 Action -0.169 0.145 -0.468 0.293

 Maintenance 0.260 0.089 ** 0.583 0.206 **

 Missing Change assessment/Hope scale 0.553 0.296 0.347 0.639

 Agency (Hope scale) 0.018 0.023 -0.032 0.043

 Pathway (Hope scale) 0.007 0.023 -0.028 0.043

 Planning subscale - Ways of Coping 0.039 0.069 -0.150 0.156

 Ways of coping data missing 0.280 0.138 * -0.069 0.307

External motivation - Sentence Reduction

 Year off - no time -0.575 0.217 ** -0.117 0.289

 Year off - 1 to 5 months -0.266 0.143 -0.036 0.184

 Year off - 5 to 12 months 0.039 0.157 -0.192 0.209

 Constant -3.925 0.458 ** -3.521 0.920 **

X

2

 /df 380.290(50) 282.25(50) 

* p<.05 ** p<.01
Table 32

Diagnostic Tests of the Three Survival Models

Minus Log-likelihood

 Outcome Gender Lognormal Exponential Weibull Sample Size 

 Arrest, all offenders Male -2111 -2101 DNC 2099 

 Arrest, all offenders Female -360 -362 -361 547 

 Arrest, those supervised Male -1745 -1735 DNC 1842 

 Arrest, those supervised Female -257 -264 -258 473 

 Arrest or revocation Male -2329 -2301 -2300 1842 

 Arrest or revocation Female -425 429 -427 473 

 Relapse to drug use Male -2444 -2480 -2447 1692 

 Relapse to drug use Female -522 -531 -521 430 

 Halfway house failure Male -1010 -1012 -1002 1476 

 Halfway house failure Female -216 -213 -211 409 

Table 33

Parameter Estimates (P) and T-Score (t) for Estimated Treatment Effect

Unadjusted Instrumental Heckman Distribution

of survival

function 

Tx.

effect

Outcome 

 

Gender P t P t P t

 Arrest, all Males -0.178 - -0.285 -1.989 -0.425 -2.315 Exponential -

 Arrest, all Females 0.116 0.416 -0.005 -0.011 0.091 0.193 Lognormal +

 Arrest, supervised Males -0.150 -

1.529

-0.203 -1.335 -0.297 -1.511 Exponential -

 Arrest, supervised Females 0.201 0.727 0.151 0.320 0.304 0.725 Lognormal +

 Arrest/Revocation Males -0.161 -

2.165

-0.252 -2.193 -0.397 -2.797 Exponential -

 Arrest/Revocation Females 0.242 1.258 0.226 0.719 0.152 0.507 Lognormal +

 Relapse to drug use Males 0.344 2.868 0.462 2.453 0.784 3.256 Lognormal +

 Relapse to drug use Females 0.382 1.367 0.436 0.942 0.328 0.751 Lognormal +

 Employment Males 0.033 1.188 0.023 0.532 0.066 1.188 n/a

 Employment Females 0.103 2.176 0.131 1.692 0.133 1.678 n/a

 Employment Level Males 0.026 0.450 0.036 0.270 n/a n/a

 Employment Level Females 0.185 1.420 0.508 2.070 n/a n/a

 Halfway house 

failure

Males 0.525 4.505 0.194 0.764 n/a Weibull +

 Halfway house failure Females 0.389 1.470 0.470 0.927 n/a Weibull +
Table 34

Rearrest for New Offense: Male Subjects, Supervised and Unsupervised

Exponential Failure Time Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT -4.8130** -4.7810*** -13.527 -4.8396** -13.163 

 WASTREAT -0.1775* -1.851 -0.2853** -1.989 -0.4254** -2.315 

 AGEFIRCO -3.0864** -4.554 -3.1386** -4.632 -3.1679** -4.592 

 ESPOUDRG 0.0355 0.659 0.0339 0.630 0.0344 0.629 

 EPSTMHTX 0.0106 0.182 0.0109 0.187 0.0142 0.236 

 ERELIRY 0.2892** 4.558 0.2907** 4.589 0.2806 4.179 

 ENOCCC 0.0679 1.334 0.0762 1.518 0.0651 1.253 

 ESUPRLNO -0.0245 -0.379 -0.0288 -0.443 -0.0236 -0.354 

 EBLACK 0.0473 0.470 0.0430 0.425 0.0228 0.217 

 ERACEOTH 0.1377 0.786 0.1428 0.814 0.1808 0.982 

 EHISP -0.1513* -1.712 -0.1525* -1.734 -0.1516* -1.698 

 GRADEA -0.0684 -0.143 -0.0795 -0.167 -0.0930 -0.193 

 AGERLSE -3.5083** -5.491 -3.4285** -5.365 -3.4111** -5.226 

 EWORKJOB -0.0756 -0.904 -0.0798 -0.956 -0.0710 -0.838 

 ELEGITUN 0.1257 0.736 0.1140 0.670 0.1080 0.633 

 EUNEMP 0.0288 0.225 0.0407 0.317 0.0364 0.280 

 EPRIORCM 0.4338** 7.335 0.4279** 7.234 0.4320** 7.184 

 ALCONLY 0.3227** 2.630 0.3410** 2.772 0.3478** 2.731 

 MJALC -0.1135 -0.591 -0.1166 -0.612 -0.0968 -0.499 

 MJNOALC 0.0141 0.087 0.0322 0.198 0.0102 0.062 

 ONEALCY -0.0114 -0.069 0.0106 0.063 0.0164 0.094 

 ONEALCN 0.0988 0.615 0.0997 0.622 0.0927 0.569 

 TWOALCY 0.2152 0.850 0.2296 0.906 0.2207 0.858 

 TWOALCN -0.0281 -0.136 -0.0124 -0.060 -0.0112 -0.053 

 EDIAGASP 0.0084 0.098 0.0062 0.072 -0.0011 -0.012 

 EDIAGDEP 0.1248 0.948 0.1257 0.954 0.1230 0.913 

 EDIAGBTH -0.1815 -1.378 -0.1791 -1.357 -0.1695 -1.227 

 Q 0.9837** 5.957 0.9819** 6.012 1.1053** 3.054 

 SIGMA -1.0898 -1.099 

< 1.1793 0.965

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 35

Rearrest for New Offense: Female Subjects, Supervised and Unsupervised

Lognormal Failure Time Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT 6.3336** 2.323 6.2214** 4.183 6.3008** 3.805 

 WASTREAT 0.1159 0.411 -0.0052 -0.011 0.0905 0.193 

 AGEFIRCO 0.4064 0.172 0.3928 0.167 0.4061 0.173 

 ESPOUDRG -0.1139 -0.598 -0.1134 -0.778 -0.1156 -0.776 

 EPSTMHTX 0.0579 0.409 0.0526 0.382 0.0573 0.416 

 ERELIRY -0.5074** -2.608 -0.5080** -2.597 -0.5072** -2.604 

 ENOCCC -0.2546* -1.743 -0.2659* -1.861 -0.2558* -1.789 

 ESUPRLNO -0.2337 -1.374 -0.2402 -1.396 -0.2340 -1.379 

 EBLACK -0.0626 -0.203 -0.0617 -0.210 -0.0619 -0.211 

 ERACEOTH -0.3532 -0.698 -0.3652 -0.717 -0.3564 -0.701 

 EHISP 0.0271 0.079 0.0190 0.071 0.0241 0.088 

 GRADEA -0.9026 -0.704 -0.9050 -0.761 -0.9065 -0.759 

 AGERLSE 4.0457 1.558 4.1679* 1.647 4.0558 1.601 

 EWORKJOB 0.1619 0.641 0.1676 0.737 0.1630 0.709 

 ELEGITUN -0.3321 -1.056 -0.3297 -1.044 -0.3322 -1.055 

 EUNEMP 0.2752 0.784 0.2629 0.765 0.2756 0.799 

 EPRIORCM -0.6358** -3.513 -0.6434** -4.255 -0.6381** -4.154 

 ALCONLY -0.0774 -0.167 -0.0725 -0.158 -0.0772 -0.169 

 MJALC 1.2612 1.212 1.2723 1.236 1.2634 1.221 

 MJNOALC -0.2049 -0.360 -0.1955 -0.402 -0.2009 -0.404 

 ONEALCY -0.1632 -0.348 -0.1423 -0.317 -0.1592 -0.352 

 ONEALCN 0.0893 0.259 0.0936 0.270 0.0911 0.264 

 TWOALCY -0.4017 -0.607 -0.3940 -0.713 -0.3945 -0.701 

 TWOALCN 0.8330 1.350 0.8515 1.487 0.8362 1.452 

 EDIAGASP -0.1206 -0.460 -0.1196 -0.468 -0.1208 -0.475 

 EDIAGDEP -0.0240 -0.093 -0.0245 -0.095 -0.0245 -0.095 

 EDIAGBTH 0.0304 0.109 0.0309 0.113 0.0296 0.108 

 S 1.9016** 2.227 1.8743** 4.492 1.8921** 3.994 

 SIGMA 3.3272 0.094 2.5428 0.330 2.9872 0.220 

< 0.0214 0.066 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 36

Rearrest for New Offense: Male Subjects, Supervised Only

Exponential Survival Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT -4.9447** -12.515 -4.9145** -12.390 -4.9522** -12.438 

 WASTREAT -0.1502 -1.529 -0.2027 -1.335 -0.2967 -1.511 

 AGEFIRCO -3.0678** -4.380 -3.0989** -4.418 -3.0848** -4.399 

 ESPOUDRG 0.0124 0.214 0.0128 0.222 0.0126 0.218 

 EPSTMHTX 0.0348 0.558 0.0337 0.539 0.0360 0.574 

 ERELIRY 0.2039** 2.927 0.2067 ** 2.971 0.2027** 2.908 

 ENOCCC 0.0381 0.701 0.0459 0.852 0.0361 0.661 

 ETXIND -0.0538 -0.597 -0.0497 -0.548 -0.0485 -0.536 

 ETXGRP -0.1651 -1.274 -0.1718 -1.327 -0.1669 -1.287 

 ETXBTH 0.1717 1.452 0.1722 1.449 0.1687 1.423 

 EAAYES -0.0379 -0.574 -0.0405 -0.611 -0.0389 -0.589 

 UA_RATE -0.2506** -2.781 -0.2515** -2.788 -0.2492** -2.764 

 PC_RATE 0.3158* 1.956 0.3004* 1.847 0.3099* 1.916 

 CC_RATE 0.5130** 5.066 0.5134** 5.064 0.5132** 5.033 

 ESPOUSE -0.2812** -3.366 -0.2856** -3.410 -0.2826** -3.373 

 ECOM_LAW 0.1607** 1.971 0.1629** 1.997 0.1610** 1.971 

 EBLACK 0.0035 0.035 -0.0017 -0.016 -0.0077 -0.076 

 ERACEOTH 0.2053 1.215 0.2138 1.255 0.2241 1.308 

 EHISP -0.1078 -1.182 -0.1090 -1.196 -0.1071 -1.172 

 GRADEA -0.5232 -1.048 -0.5300 -1.062 -0.5411 -1.081 

 AGERLSE -3.1335** -4.713 -3.0855** -4.627 -3.0593** -4.578 

 EWORKJOB -0.0827 -0.960 -0.0896 -1.042 -0.0833 -0.966 

 ELEGITUN 0.1267 0.730 0.1183 0.681 0.1194 0.687 

 EUNEMP 0.0331 0.253 0.0461 0.351 0.0436 0.332 

 EPRIORCM 0.4254** 6.964 0.4231** 6.918 0.4232** 6.915 

 ALCONLY 0.3534** 2.680 0.3666** 2.766 0.3615** 2.733 

 MJALC -0.0124 -0.060 -0.0185 -0.090 -0.0079 -0.038 

 MJNOALC 0.0106 0.065 0.0183 0.112 0.0132 0.081 

 ONEALCY 0.0552 0.321 0.0640 0.370 0.0680 0.392 

 ONEALCN -0.0101 -0.059 -0.0119 -0.070 -0.0093 -0.055 

 TWOALCY 0.2246 0.906 0.2378 0.954 0.2395 0.961 

 TWOALCN -0.0001 0.000 0.0088 0.037 0.0065 0.028 

 EDIAGASP 0.0484 0.532 0.0486 0.533 0.0459 0.504 

 EDIAGDEP 0.0394 0.278 0.0340 0.241 0.0432 0.305 

 EDIAGBTH -0.1572 -1.123 -0.1504 -1.070 -0.1594 -1.136 

 S 1.3508** 4.948 1.3360** 4.971 1.4019** 3.975 

 SIGMA -1.8003 -1.325 

 < 1.5519 0.924 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 37

Rearrest for New Offense: Female Subjects, Supervised Only

Lognormal Survival Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT 4.6521** 4.820 4.6718** 4.812 4.6713** 4.824 

 WASTREAT 0.2009 0.727 0.1509 0.320 0.3039 0.725 

 AGEFIRCO 1.2218 0.532 1.4382 0.625 1.2446 0.543 

 ESPOUDRG -0.2996** -2.387 -0.2950** -2.341 -0.2976** -2.374 

 EPSTMHTX 0.0801 0.592 0.0607 0.456 0.0810 0.600 

 ERELIRY -0.5391** -2.969 -0.5214** -2.886 -0.5395** -2.978 

 ENOCCC -0.4482** -3.095 -0.4751** -3.380 -0.4440** -3.054 

 ETXIND 0.5737** 2.390 0.5630** 2.350 0.5772** 2.394 

 ETXGRP -0.3992 -0.916 -0.3721 -0.835 -0.4385 -0.961 

 ETXBTH -0.2972 -1.030 -0.3079 -1.007 -0.2663 -0.876 

 EAAYES 0.0592 0.419 0.0693 0.490 0.0573 0.406 

 UA_RATE 0.1899 0.774 0.1834 0.741 0.1831 0.743 

 PC_RATE 0.0624 0.156 0.0710 0.176 0.0752 0.187 

 CC_RATE -1.0293** -3.392 -1.0366** -3.382 -1.0414** -3.405 

 ESPOUSE -0.0182 -0.075 -0.0156 -0.064 -0.0195 -0.080 

 ECOM_LAW -0.0853 -0.289 -0.0732 -0.250 -0.0919 -0.309 

 EBLACK -0.0490 -0.177 -0.0611 -0.221 -0.0545 -0.196 

 ERACEOTH -0.5228 -1.118 -0.5234 -1.119 -0.5154 -1.097 

 EHISP 0.1692 0.704 0.1768 0.733 0.1654 0.689 

 GRADEA -0.9823 -0.927 -0.9391 -0.874 -1.0098 -0.952 

 AGERLSE 3.8059 1.602 3.6829 1.507 3.7636 1.583 

 EWORKJOB -0.2564 -1.064 -0.2517 -1.043 -0.2594 -1.074 

 ELEGITUN 0.1879 0.539 0.2198 0.634 0.1810 0.520 

 EUNEMP 0.3920 1.078 0.3479 0.960 0.4076 1.115 

 EPRIORCM -0.6697** -4.988 -0.6651** -4.759 -0.6597** -4.795 

 ALCONLY 0.0519 0.114 0.0557 0.122 0.0570 0.125 

 MJALC 1.2434 1.578 1.2445 1.579 1.2309 1.563 

 MJNOALC 0.5490 1.425 0.5084 1.321 0.5379 1.392 

 ONEALCY -0.5541 -1.341 -0.5787 -1.402 -0.5651 -1.367 

 ONEALCN -0.1291 -0.337 -0.1521 -0.389 -0.1560 -0.396 

 TWOALCY -0.1647 -0.315 -0.2332 -0.433 -0.2035 -0.378 

 TWOALCN 1.3846** 2.482 1.3966** 2.460 1.3558** 2.402 

 EDIAGASP -0.2094 -0.890 -0.2131 -0.904 -0.2148 -0.914 

 EDIAGDEP 0.0518 0.194 0.0573 0.213 0.0471 0.177 

 EDIAGBTH 0.4124 1.460 0.4327 1.502 0.4325 1.508 

 SIGMA 0.9337** 8.589 0.9358** 8.564 0.9318** 8.579 

 S -0.5863** -2.761 -0.5865** -2.756 -0.5917** -2.772 

 < -0.1714 -0.323 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 38

Rearrest or Revocation: Male Subjects, Supervised Only

Exponential Survival Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT -5.1599** -17.166 -5.1310** -17.071 -5.1609** -17.098 

 WASTREAT -0.1608** -2.165 -0.2515** -2.193 -0.3968** -2.797 

 AGEFIRCO -2.2678** -4.395 -2.3069** -4.466 -2.2857** -4.412 

 ESPOUDRG -0.0398 -0.905 -0.0377 -0.859 -0.0399 -0.904 

 EPSTMHTX 0.0158 0.338 0.0155 0.331 0.0199 0.422 

 ERELIRY 0.3032** 6.280 0.3062** 6.360 0.3054** 6.267 

 ENOCCC 0.0916** 2.270 0.0988** 2.485 0.0889** 2.187 

 ETXIND -0.0814 -1.236 -0.0728 -1.100 -0.0720 -1.084 

 ETXGRP -0.0497 -0.551 -0.0528 -0.586 -0.0538 -0.592 

 ETXBTH 0.1583* 1.917 0.1512* 1.824 0.1542* 1.846 

 EAAYES -0.0004 -0.009 -0.0042 -0.088 -0.0021 -0.043 

 UA_RATE -0.1265* -1.855 -0.1267* -1.861 -0.1232* -1.803 

 PC_RATE 0.1952* 1.678 0.1878 1.611 0.1934 1.644 

 CC_RATE 0.5174** 6.545 0.5183** 6.558 0.5217** 6.542 

 ESPOUSE -0.3402** -5.301 -0.3441** -5.369 -0.3411** -5.280 

 ECOM_LAW 0.1844** 3.009 0.1866** 3.050 0.1846** 2.991 

 EBLACK 0.1068 1.390 0.0982 1.270 0.0902 1.162 

 ERACEOTH 0.1382 1.048 0.1510 1.142 0.1669 1.254 

 EHISP -0.0500 -0.738 -0.0505 -0.746 -0.0487 -0.713 

 GRADEA -0.6066 -1.615 -0.6011 -1.602 -0.6181 -1.642 

 AGERLSE -1.6387** -3.413 -1.5834** -3.298 -1.5536** -3.216 

 EWORKJOB -0.1635** -2.577 -0.1700** -2.689 -0.1666** -2.615 

 ELEGITUN 0.1979 1.601 0.1841 1.495 0.1882 1.520 

 EUNEMP 0.0199 0.209 0.0411 0.432 0.0384 0.400 

 EPRIORCM 0.3812** 8.215 0.3772** 8.124 0.3786** 8.117 

 ALCONLY 0.1543 1.502 0.1686 1.635 0.1682 1.623 

 MJALC -0.0499 -0.303 -0.0469 -0.288 -0.0412 -0.254 

 MJNOALC 0.0475 0.375 0.0536 0.425 0.0466 0.366 

 ONEALCY 0.0994 0.777 0.1057 0.825 0.1181 0.910 

 ONEALCN 0.1274 1.048 0.1313 1.080 0.1325 1.081 

 TWOALCY 0.4060** 2.349 0.4228** 2.444 0.4366** 2.492 

 TWOALCN 0.2385 1.461 0.2551 1.555 0.2484 1.517 

 EDIAGASP 0.0271 0.403 0.0285 0.424 0.0240 0.355 

 EDIAGDEP -0.0171 -0.162 -0.0184 -0.175 -0.0083 -0.078 

 EDIAGBTH 0.0090 0.090 0.0075 0.075 0.0017 0.016 

 S 2.4162** 8.675 2.4213** 8.747 2.5397** 7.294 

 SIGMA -1.5559** -2.974 

 < 2.3273** 2.486 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 39

Rearrest or Revocation: Female Subjects, Supervised Only

Lognormal Survival Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT 6.0533** 8.560 6.0129** 8.496 6.0413** 8.516 

 WASTREAT 0.2418 1.258 0.2264 0.719 0.1516 0.507 

 AGEFIRCO 2.1390 1.305 2.0540 1.251 2.1262 1.297 

 ESPOUDRG 0.0154 0.165 0.0213 0.230 0.0149 0.161 

 EPSTMHTX 0.1704* 1.717 0.1654* 1.667 0.1696 * 1.709 

 ERELIRY -0.4919** -3.615 -0.4985** -3.643 -0.4920** -3.618 

 ENOCCC -0.1465 -1.409 -0.1592 -1.532 -0.1508 -1.442 

 ETXIND 0.2102 1.329 0.2174 1.381 0.2104 1.331 

 ETXGRP 0.1406 0.561 0.1273 0.505 0.1505 0.597 

 ETXBTH -0.5368** -2.892 -0.5303** -2.849 -0.5437** -2.919 

 EAAYES 0.1267 1.125 0.1245 1.104 0.1279 1.134 

 UA_RATE 0.1028 0.587 0.1050 0.598 0.1023 0.584 

 PC_RATE 0.0114 0.035 0.0184 0.057 0.0074 0.023 

 CC_RATE -0.6965** -3.616 -0.6981** -3.609 -0.6980** -3.620 

 ESPOUSE -0.0768 -0.390 -0.0643 -0.327 -0.0829 -0.420 

 ECOM_LAW 0.1597 0.783 0.1461 0.715 0.1680 0.819 

 EBLACK -0.2057 -0.967 -0.2114 -0.988 -0.1971 -0.922 

 ERACEOTH -0.0998 -0.266 -0.0941 -0.250 -0.1168 -0.309 

 EHISP 0.1479 0.848 0.1468 0.843 0.1435 0.821 

 GRADEA -0.0722 -0.084 -0.0280 -0.033 -0.0603 -0.070 

 AGERLSE 0.8488 0.485 0.9650 0.549 0.8990 0.513 

 EWORKJOB 0.0991 0.615 0.1109 0.690 0.0967 0.599 

 ELEGITUN -0.0060 -0.026 -0.0101 -0.043 -0.0030 -0.013 

 EUNEMP 0.0936 0.388 0.0763 0.316 0.0859 0.354 

 EPRIORCM -0.4604** -4.653 -0.4614** -4.625 -0.4644** -4.663 

 ALCONLY 0.3188 0.901 0.3248 0.918 0.3166 0.893 

 MJALC 0.3865 0.719 0.3773 0.701 0.3982 0.739 

 MJNOALC -0.0236 -0.070 -0.0422 -0.125 -0.0218 -0.064 

 ONEALCY -0.4974* -1.705 -0.4772 -1.633 -0.4942* -1.692 

 ONEALCN 0.0346 0.137 0.0185 0.073 0.0456 0.179 

 TWOALCY -0.3273 -0.776 -0.3356 -0.793 -0.3104 -0.732 

 TWOALCN -0.0990 -0.283 -0.0880 -0.252 -0.0899 -0.256 

 EDIAGASP -0.1743 -0.940 -0.1683 -0.902 -0.1700 -0.912 

 EDIAGDEP 0.1243 0.664 0.1181 0.629 0.1247 0.665 

 EDIAGBTH -0.0513 -0.248 -0.0463 -0.220 -0.0635 -0.303 

 SIGMA 1.4029** 9.443 1.4136** 9.186 1.4088** 9.314 

 S 2.8021 1.163 2.9654 1.001 2.9044 1.072 

 < 0.0998 0.399 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 40

Estimated Covariance Terms

 

Males Females

 Outcome Covariance t-score Covariance t-score 

 Arrest, all offenders 0.530 0.965 0.011 0.066 

 Arrest, those supervised 0.650 0.612 -0.085 -0.323 

 Arrest or revocation 0.822 2.483 0.050 0.399 

 Relapse to drug use 0.161 2.074 -0.161 0.162 

 Employment 0.048 -0.681 0.056 -0.474 
Table 41

Estimated Failure Rates within Three Years for Treated and Untreated Offenders

Failure Rates

 Outcome Gender Overall 

Without 

Treatment 

With 

Treatment 

 Arrests, all offenders Male 0.347 0.376 0.306 

 Arrests, all offenders Females 0.161 0.160 0.161 

 Arrests, those supervised Male 0.332 0.353 0.303 

 Arrests, those supervised Females 0.167 0.175 0.153 

 Arrest or revocation Males 0.490 0.525 0.443 

 Arrest or revocation Females 0.278 0.297 0.245 

 Relapse to drug use Males 0.550 0.585 0.499 

 Relapse to drug use Females 0.398 0.426 0.350 
Table 42

Relapse to Drug Use: Male Subjects, Supervised Only

Lognormal Survival Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT 4.3625** 8.389 4.3493** 8.345 4.3642** 8.406 

 WASTREAT 0.3435** 2.868 0.4615** 2.453 0.7843** 3.256 

 ESPOUDRG 0.0422 0.602 0.0392 0.559 0.0400 0.572 

 EPSTMHTX -0.0222 -0.285 -0.0218 -0.280 -0.0244 -0.315 

 DAILYNO 0.2096 1.263 0.2055 1.238 0.2169 1.309 

 EPSTDGTX -0.2247** -3.499 -0.2224** -3.461 -0.2211** -3.452 

 EPSTETOH -0.2000 -1.562 -0.2034 -1.587 -0.2107* -1.647 

 EDRUGIRY -0.6996** -7.784 -0.7001** -7.781 -0.7018** -7.830 

 ENOCCC -0.0974 -1.445 -0.1153* -1.727 -0.0935 -1.388 

 ETXIND 0.0079 0.076 0.0060 0.058 0.0004 0.004 

 ETXGRP 0.2275 1.533 0.2344 1.578 0.2265 1.528 

 ETXBTH -0.5877** -4.385 -0.5867** -4.374 -0.5753** -4.297 

 EAAYES 0.0080 0.105 0.0131 0.171 0.0071 0.094 

 UA_RATE -0.6843** -6.046 -0.6824** -6.030 -0.6871** -6.080 

 PC_RATE -0.0828 -0.424 -0.0640 -0.327 -0.0640 -0.328 

 CC_RATE -0.2202 -1.554 -0.2270 -1.600 -0.2227 -1.576 

 ESPOUSE 0.4045** 3.950 0.4113** 4.013 0.4072** 3.981 

 ECOM_LAW -0.1288 -1.258 -0.1384 -1.353 -0.1371 -1.340 

 EBLACK -0.4800** -3.390 -0.4819** -3.394 -0.4561** -3.219 

 ERACEOTH -0.0736 -0.297 -0.0780 -0.314 -0.1142 -0.461 

 EHISP -0.3354** -3.105 -0.3375** -3.124 -0.3368** -3.123 

 GRADEA 1.0633* 1.763 1.0520* 1.744 1.0732* 1.784 

 AGERLSE 2.2112** 3.007 2.1053** 2.856 2.0026** 2.705 

 EWORKJOB 0.1874* 1.763 0.1942* 1.825 0.1926* 1.816 

 ELEGITUN -0.1883 -0.878 -0.1759 -0.819 -0.1721 -0.803 

 EUNEMP -0.1376 -0.865 -0.1590 -0.996 -0.1679 -1.054 

 EPRIORCM -0.4045** -5.991 -0.3995** -5.914 -0.3959** -5.866 

 ALCONLY 0.0978 0.562 0.0832 0.477 0.0740 0.425 

 MJALC -0.4487* -1.767 -0.4453* -1.752 -0.4628* -1.826 

 MJNOALC -0.4797** -2.197 -0.4981** -2.282 -0.4832** -2.217 

 ONEALCY -0.0952 -0.419 -0.1050 -0.462 -0.1128 -0.498 

 ONEALCN -0.6027** -2.889 -0.6095** -2.917 -0.6068** -2.916 

 TWOALCY -0.7964** -2.601 -0.8335** -2.715 -0.8574** -2.792 

 TWOALCN -0.5973** -2.182 -0.6387** -2.325 -0.6059** -2.218 

 EDIAGASP -0.0599 -0.543 -0.0696 -0.631 -0.0679 -0.616 

 EDIAGDEP -0.0816 -0.485 -0.0702 -0.417 -0.0912 -0.543 

 EDIAGBTH 0.0993 0.593 0.1023 0.610 0.1237 0.738 

 SIGMA 2.0137** 25.992 2.0133** 26.006 2.0291** 25.921 

 S 3.2306** 3.335 3.2084** 3.384 3.3762** 3.055 

 < -0.3254** -2.074 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 43

Relapse to Drug Use: Female Subjects, Supervised Only

Lognormal Survival Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT 6.0648** 4.907 5.9553** 4.816 6.0615** 4.904 

 WASTREAT 0.3822 1.367 0.4356 0.942 0.3279 0.751 

 ESPOUDRG 0.0342 0.248 0.0391 0.283 0.0338 0.245 

 EPSTMHTX 0.3449** 2.305 0.3383** 2.259 0.3452** 2.307 

 DAILYNO 1.1195** 2.417 1.1305** 2.431 1.1179** 2.412 

 EPSTDGTX -0.2067 -1.411 -0.2119 -1.439 -0.2054 -1.401 

 EPSTETOH 0.0040 0.009 -0.0034 -0.008 0.0055 0.013 

 EDRUGIRY -0.9896** -4.174 -0.9907** -4.168 -0.9898** -4.174 

 ENOCCC 0.0775 0.475 0.0620 0.381 0.0750 0.459 

 ETXIND 0.2300 1.036 0.2369 1.065 0.2305 1.039 

 ETXGRP -0.1385 -0.377 -0.1646 -0.447 -0.1347 -0.367 

 ETXBTH -0.8704** -3.220 -0.8568** -3.157 -0.8734** -3.226 

 EAAYES 0.4894** 2.956 0.4757** 2.875 0.4901** 2.959 

 UA_RATE -0.3551 -1.266 -0.3361 -1.190 -0.3588 -1.273 

 PC_RATE -0.1266 -0.259 -0.1123 -0.228 -0.1295 -0.264 

 CC_RATE -0.8217** -2.538 -0.8259** -2.544 -0.8226** -2.540 

 ESPOUSE 0.5315* 1.713 0.5491* 1.762 0.5279* 1.697 

 ECOM_LAW -0.2581 -0.853 -0.2750 -0.907 -0.2544 -0.839 

 EBLACK -1.1114** -2.894 -1.1193** -2.912 -1.1075** -2.875 

 ERACEOTH 1.2357* 1.744 1.2385* 1.752 1.2292* 1.730 

 EHISP -0.1041 -0.396 -0.1116 -0.424 -0.1077 -0.409 

 GRADEA -0.5320 -0.396 -0.5025 -0.373 -0.5299 -0.394 

 AGERLSE 4.3820** 2.256 4.4226** 2.260 4.4051** 2.260 

 EWORKJOB 0.1250 0.528 0.1324 0.558 0.1243 0.525 

 ELEGITUN 0.0265 0.074 0.0151 0.042 0.0293 0.082 

 EUNEMP -0.2544 -0.743 -0.2541 -0.739 -0.2595 -0.756 

 EPRIORCM -0.3981** -2.861 -0.3969** -2.834 -0.4002** -2.867 

 ALCONLY 0.2044 0.377 0.2303 0.425 0.2034 0.375 

 MJALC -0.6274 -0.866 -0.6446 -0.887 -0.6229 -0.860 

 MJNOALC 0.2422 0.427 0.2315 0.407 0.2460 0.433 

 ONEALCY -0.1471 -0.291 -0.1123 -0.222 -0.1476 -0.292 

 ONEALCN -0.2040 -0.496 -0.2249 -0.544 -0.1990 -0.483 

 TWOALCY -0.9885 -1.630 -1.0107* -1.663 -0.9850 -1.624 

 TWOALCN 0.3366 0.596 0.3620 0.639 0.3380 0.598 

 EDIAGASP 0.2845 0.978 0.2779 0.948 0.2887 0.991 

 EDIAGDEP 0.1619 0.567 0.1654 0.576 0.1594 0.558 

 EDIAGBTH -0.4256 -1.442 -0.4098 -1.380 -0.4314 -1.455 

 SIGMA 2.1963** 17.279 2.2024** 17.280 2.1964** 17.279 

 S 12.8513 0.063 12.5129 0.064 14.4636 0.032 

 < 0.0394 0.162 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 44

Employment: Male Subjects, Supervised Only

Two-Limit Tobit Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT 0.3189** 2.947 0.3225** 2.965 0.3179** 2.938 

 WASTREAT 0.0332 1.188 0.0233 0.532 0.0660 1.188 

 ESUPILL -0.0123 -0.832 -0.0122 -0.824 -0.0121 -0.814 

 NVERUNEM 0.0806** 2.724 0.0822** 2.782 0.0805** 2.720 

 NVRWORK 0.0647 -1.578 -0.0669 -1.634 -0.0648 -1.581 

 EVOCEDUC 0.0098 0.683 0.0103 0.714 0.0090 0.627 

 PERCEN_U 0.2073** 2.632 0.2051** 2.598 0.2035** 2.577 

 AGEFIRCO 0.6305** 3.219 0.6314** 3.219 0.6335** 3.234 

 ENOCCC -0.0932** -6.158 -0.0955** -6.365 -0.0930** -6.144 

 ETXIND 0.0149 0.584 0.0156 0.612 0.0142 0.558 

 ETXGRP 0.0574 1.563 0.0582 1.584 0.0576 1.570 

 ETXBTH -0.1014** -3.045 -0.1023** -3.068 -0.1007** -3.021 

 EAAYES 0.0593** 3.292 0.0597** 3.312 0.0593** 3.292 

 UA_RATE 0.0729** 2.945 0.0740** 2.987 0.0722** 2.918 

 PC_RATE 0.0191 0.415 0.0198 0.430 0.0200 0.434 

 CC_RATE -0.0547* -1.749 -0.0554* -1.771 -0.0549* -1.757 

 ESPOUSE 0.0864** 3.716 0.0868** 3.734 0.0864** 3.720 

 ECOM_LAW -0.0457* -1.941 -0.0462** -1.964 -0.0458* -1.947 

 WORKNA -3.8637 -0.179 -3.8611 -0.179 -3.0405 -0.559 

 EBLACK -0.0591** -1.962 -0.0604** -1.997 -0.0575* -1.900 

 ERACEOTH -0.1118** -2.148 -0.1107** -2.121 -0.1146** -2.196 

 EHISP -0.0814** -3.318 -0.0818** -3.332 -0.0814** -3.318 

 GRADEA 0.3736** 2.681 0.3712** 2.662 0.3761** 2.698 

 AGERLSE -0.6446** -3.324 -0.6464** -3.321 -0.6596** -3.381 

 EWORKJOB 0.1556** 5.984 0.1561** 6.002 0.1560** 6.000 

 ELEGITUN -0.1881** -3.624 -0.1881** -3.621 -0.1872** -3.607 

 EUNEMP 0.0223 0.592 0.0213 0.562 0.0203 0.537 

 EPRIORCM -0.0294* -1.751 -0.0291* -1.736 -0.0289* -1.720 

 ALCONLY -0.0194 -0.509 -0.0199 -0.520 -0.0211 -0.553 

 MJALC 0.0380 0.649 0.0385 0.657 0.0362 0.617 

 MJNOALC 0.0049 0.103 0.0028 0.059 0.0047 0.097 

 ONEALCY -0.0147 -0.290 -0.0140 -0.275 -0.0166 -0.327 

 ONEALCN -0.1051** -2.269 -0.1040** -2.241 -0.1055** -2.276 

 TWOALCY -0.1460** -2.055 -0.1473** -2.069 -0.1500** -2.105 

 TWOALCN -0.0064 -0.099 -0.0074 -0.114 -0.0069 -0.106 

 EDIAGASP 0.0315 1.238 0.0309 1.214 0.0317 1.245 

 EDIAGDEP -0.0085 -0.223 -0.0066 -0.174 -0.0096 -0.253 

 EDIAGBTH -0.0608 -1.622 0.0625* -1.667 -0.0595 -1.587 

 SIGMA 0.5104** 40.117 0.5107** 40.116 0.5106** 40.076 

 < -0.0953 -0.681 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 45

Employment: Female Subjects, Supervised Only

Two-Limit Tobit Model

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Heckman-Type

Parameters Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e. Estimates Est./s.e.

 CONSTANT 0.30* 1.680 0.2876 1.618 0.2998* 1.694 

 WASTREAT 0.10** 2.176 0.1306* 1.692 0.1333* 1.678 

 ESUPILL 0.00 -0.038 -0.0007 -0.028 -0.0013 -0.055 

 NVERUNEM 0.10** 1.964 0.0958** 1.965 0.0972** 1.998 

 NVRWORK -0.15** -2.495 -0.1574** -2.547 -0.1560** -2.529 

 EVOCEDUC 0.06** 2.307 0.0624** 2.476 0.0581** 2.297 

 PERCEN_U 0.10 0.754 0.0884 0.687 0.0938 0.732 

 AGEFIRCO 0.34 0.778 0.3249 0.736 0.3399 0.773 

 ENOCCC -0.09** -3.317 -0.0935** -3.484 -0.0885** -3.283 

 ETXIND -0.03 -0.686 -0.0255 -0.645 -0.0274 -0.695 

 ETXGRP 0.03 0.429 0.0175 0.277 0.0248 0.393 

 ETXBTH -0.11** -2.359 -0.1069** -2.217 -0.1119** -2.327 

 EAAYES 0.06** 2.385 0.0625** 2.297 0.0642** 2.370 

 UA_RATE 0.03 0.829 0.0367 0.873 0.0357 0.851 

 PC_RATE -0.06 -0.688 -0.0531 -0.626 -0.0546 -0.647 

 CC_RATE 0.00 0.061 0.0030 0.058 0.0046 0.090 

 ESPOUSE -0.05 -1.101 -0.0466 -0.997 -0.0496 -1.064 

 ECOM_LAW 0.02 0.408 0.0126 0.265 0.0172 0.362 

 WORKNA -3.29 -0.122 -3.3159 -0.122 -3.0308 -0.055 

 EBLACK -0.09* -1.814 -0.1047** -1.976 -0.0986* -1.865 

 ERACEOTH 0.08 0.889 0.0963 1.030 0.0884 0.946 

 EHISP -0.09** -2.162 -0.0893** -2.112 -0.0888** -2.097 

 GRADEA 0.07 0.300 0.0587 0.270 0.0636 0.293 

 AGERLSE -0.01 -0.019 0.0092 0.020 -0.0186 -0.040 

 EWORKJOB 0.06 1.508 0.0631 1.580 0.0605 1.517 

 ELEGITUN -0.11* -1.834 -0.1163* -1.879 -0.1147* -1.856 

 EUNEMP 0.02 0.290 0.0179 0.287 0.0202 0.323 

 EPRIORCM -0.04 -1.377 -0.0339 -1.323 -0.0342 -1.339 

 ALCONLY -0.05 -0.604 -0.0434 -0.538 -0.0487 -0.605 

 MJALC -0.01 -0.099 -0.0200 -0.163 -0.0155 -0.126 

 MJNOALC -0.07 -0.890 -0.0791 -0.944 -0.0763 -0.913 

 ONEALCY -0.10 -1.342 -0.0950 -1.225 -0.105 -1.352 

 ONEALCN -0.03 -0.472 -0.0332 -0.531 -0.0328 -0.525 

 TWOALCY 0.04 0.394 0.0344 0.318 0.0403 0.374 

 TWOALCN 0.04 0.463 0.0459 0.518 0.0399 0.451 

 EDIAGASP -0.03 -0.649 -0.0331 -0.682 -0.0324 -0.671 

 EDIAGDEP 0.08* 1.837 0.0825* 1.782 0.0851* 1.840 

 EDIAGBTH -0.07 -1.367 -0.0649 -1.249 -0.0676 -1.305 

 SIGMA 0.43** 23.398 0.4288** 23.395 0.4276** 23.347 

 < -0.1112 -0.474 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 46

Employment Level: Supervised Subjects Only

Ordered Probit Model

Males Females

Unadjusted Instrumental Variable Unadjusted Instrumental Variable

Variable 

Probit

Estimate t-value

Probit

Estimate t-value

Probit

Estimate t-value

Probit

Estimate t-value

 WASTREAT 0.02597 0.45 0.03606 0.27 0.18534 1.42 0.50822** 2.07 

 ESUPILL -0.03236 -1.02 -0.03219 -1.01 0.01400 0.21 0.01462 0.22 

 NVERUNEM 0.17100** 2.77 0.17211** 2.79 0.20747 1.60 0.22997* 1.74 

 NVRWORK -0.15181* -1.71 -0.15332* -1.73 -0.30065** -2.01 -0.33460** -2.21 

 EVOCEDUC 0.03016 1.00 0.03055 1.01 0.10050 1.46 0.09979 1.45 

 PERCEN_U 0.47355** 2.75 0.47063** 2.74 0.75480** 2.01 0.72516* 1.89 

 AGEFIRCO 1.38322** 3.47 1.38538** 3.48 1.53628 1.42 1.51309 1.39 

 ENOCCC -0.20155** -6.49 -0.20300** -6.65 -0.22995** -3.04 -0.22212** -2.94 

 ETXIND 0.02663 0.49 0.02703 0.50 -0.01448 -0.13 -0.01790 -0.16 

 ETXGRP 0.12230* 1.71 0.12294* 1.72 -0.03199 -0.19 -0.05838 -0.35 

 ETXBTH -0.17736** -2.56 -0.17761** -2.55 -0.19438 -1.38 -0.17608 -1.25 

 EAAYES 0.09228** 2.43 0.09233** 2.43 0.21802** 2.90 0.21024** 2.81 

 UA_RATE 0.14870** 3.00 0.14931** 3.02 -0.05234 -0.46 -0.04431 -0.39 

 PC_RATE 0.08441 0.93 0.08461 0.93 -0.08256 -0.39 -0.05823 -0.28 

 CC_RATE -0.08643 -1.48 -0.08681 -1.48 0.01850 0.16 0.03050 0.26 

 ESPOUSE 0.11846** 2.39 0.11865** 2.39 0.03648 0.28 0.05340 0.41 

 ECOM_LAW -0.05722 -1.18 -0.05765 -1.19 -0.02548 -0.15 -0.04140 -0.25 

 EBLACK -0.09593 -1.45 -0.09622 -1.45 -0.19298 -1.18 -0.23368 -1.42 

 ERACEOTH -0.22021* -1.90 -0.22050* -1.90 0.15843 0.54 0.22070 0.75 

 EHISP -0.12446** -2.39 -0.12469** -2.39 -0.14211 -1.39 -0.13189 -1.26 

 GRADEA 0.56576** 1.96 0.56417** 1.96 -0.12977 -0.24 -0.13453 -0.25 

 AGERLSE -1.26443** -3.14 -1.27181** -3.13 -0.94267 -0.80 -1.04077 -0.88 

 EWORKJOB 0.28198** 5.29 0.28248** 5.29 0.09803 0.90 0.10188 0.94 

 ELEGITUN -0.28627** -2.93 -0.28632** -2.94 -0.34720** -2.57 -0.35820** -2.67 

 EUNEMP -0.01882 -0.23 -0.02003 -0.24 0.18215 1.04 0.19818 1.13 

 EPRIORCM -0.04527 -1.28 -0.04485 -1.27 -0.06496 -0.94 -0.05566 -0.80 

 ALCONLY -0.00785 -0.10 -0.00905 -0.12 -0.26930 -1.06 -0.26808 -1.06 

 MJALC 0.04787 0.39 0.04740 0.38 0.14608 0.49 0.12274 0.41 

 MJNOALC -0.01015 -0.09 -0.01170 -0.11 -0.03871 -0.17 -0.05666 -0.25 

 ONEALCY -0.05942 -0.53 -0.05990 -0.53 -0.32811 -1.58 -0.33829 -1.62 

 ONEALCN -0.22569** -2.38 -0.22470** -2.37 -0.03998 -0.23 -0.07824 -0.45 

 TWOALCY -0.27292* -1.82 -0.27581* -1.84 -0.09141 -0.32 -0.12273 -0.43 

 TWOALCN 0.06297 0.50 0.06160 0.49 -0.00513 -0.02 -0.01098 -0.05 

 EDIAGASP 0.07551 1.40 0.07509 1.39 -0.12524 -0.91 -0.13941 -1.00 

 EDIAGDEP -0.03623 -0.44 -0.03543 -0.43 0.15092 1.17 0.15097 1.18 

 EDIAGBTH -0.10535 -1.34 -0.10590 -1.35 -0.06027 -0.44 -0.02967 -0.21 

 ALPHA_1 -0.53949** -2.34 -0.54469** -2.36 -1.20487** -2.62 -1.23474** -2.66 

 ALPHA_2 -0.15219 -0.66 -0.15732 -0.69 -0.56802 -1.26 -0.59477 -1.31 

 ALPHA_3 1.28771** 5.58 1.28254** 5.57 1.15777** 2.60 1.13621** 2.53 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test
Table 47

Halfway House Failure: Supervised Subjects Only

Weibull Survival Model

Males Females

Unadjusted

Instrumental

Variable Unadjusted

Instrumental

Variable

Parameter t-score

 

Parameter t-score Parameter t-score

 

Parameter t-score

 CONSTANT 3.966** 9.837 4.291** 10.016 6.020** 5.622 5.998** 5.766 

 WASTREAT 0.525** 4.505 0.194 0.764 0.389 1.470 0.470 0.927 

 ESUPILL -0.005 -0.093 -0.036 -0.688 -0.054 -0.450 -0.050 -0.417 

 NVERUNEM -0.007 -0.074 -0.007 -0.066 -0.376 -1.493 -0.388 -1.485 

 NVRWORK 0.000 -0.002 -0.018 -0.129 0.237 0.889 0.245 0.885 

 EVOCEDUC 0.020 0.378 0.038 0.701 0.385** 2.474 0.402** 2.551 

 PERCEN_U 0.591* 1.897 0.468 1.466 1.968** 2.268 1.998** 2.285 

 AGEFIRCO 3.119** 4.356 3.178** 4.331 5.139** 2.878 5.175** 2.806 

 EYEARNO 0.028 0.363 0.140 1.434 -0.046 -0.261 -0.018 -0.092 

 EYEARYES -0.079 -0.928 -0.070 -0.808 -0.127 -0.759 -0.186 -1.114 

 EBLACK -0.027 -0.240 -0.056 -0.507 -0.144 -0.471 -0.167 -0.553 

 ERACEOTH -0.394** -1.968 -0.342* -1.721 0.377 0.670 0.430 0.774 

 EHISP -0.052 -0.541 -0.053 -0.535 0.388 1.493 0.361 1.356 

 GRADEA 0.702 1.252 0.540 0.953 -0.255 -0.283 -0.312 -0.345 

 AGERLSE -0.003 -0.005 0.115 0.161 -2.727* -1.668 -2.581 -1.565 

 EWORKJOB -0.294** -2.769 -0.276** -2.497 0.534** 2.442 0.561** 2.564 

 ELEGITUN 0.620** 2.703 0.638** 2.624 0.131 0.436 0.120 0.392 

 EUNEMP -0.012 -0.079 -0.067 -0.405 -0.433 -1.630 -0.441 -1.637 

 EPRIORCM -0.235** -3.590 -0.240** -3.587 -0.285** -2.279 -0.292** -2.362 

 ALCONLY -0.274** -2.059 -0.236* -1.756 0.152 0.381 0.130 0.329 

 MJALC -0.008 -0.039 0.041 0.193 0.041 0.065 0.087 0.140 

 MJNOALC 0.232 1.240 0.214 1.142 0.023 0.046 -0.014 -0.027 

 ONEALCY -0.212 -1.146 -0.157 -0.845 0.214 0.520 0.194 0.461 

 ONEALCN -0.266* -1.645 -0.270 -1.587 0.147 0.477 0.110 0.348 

 TWOALCY -0.391 -1.596 -0.288 -1.210 0.098 0.214 0.077 0.166 

 TWOALCN -0.198 -0.915 -0.255 -1.158 0.258 0.514 0.291 0.568 

 EDIAGASP 0.145 1.629 0.134 1.483 -0.279 -1.239 -0.309 -1.375 

 EDIAGDEP 0.100 0.737 0.080 0.541 0.023 0.100 0.038 0.167 

 EDIAGBTH -0.330** -2.537 -0.274** -2.119 -0.119 -0.508 -0.109 -0.465 

 S -0.233 -1.571 -0.410* -1.697 -6.480 0.000 -6.507 0.000 

 SHAPE 0.698** 17.263 0.741** 16.045 0.771** 6.991 0.776** 7.202 

* p<.05, two-tailed test ** p<.05, one-tailed test