TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

**1.1 PURPOSE**  **OF THE**  **DOCUMENT .........................................................1­1** 

**1.2 OVERVIEW**  **OF THE**  **APPLIANCES AND**  **COMMERCIAL**

**EQUIPMENT STANDARDS**  **PROGRAM.............................................1­1**

**1.3 OVERVIEW**  **OF THE**  **SUBCATEGORIES OF**  **LAMPS COVERED**  **...1­2**

**1.4 PROCESS**  **FOR SETTING**  **ENERGY CONERVATION** 

**STANDARDS..........................................................................................1­4**

**1.5 STRUCTURE**  **OF THE**  **DOCUMENT....................................................1­7**

CHAPTER 2. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

**2.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................2­1**

**2.2 BACKGROUND**  **.....................................................................................2­4**

**2.3 MARKET**  **AND TECHNOLOGY**  **ASSESSMENT ................................2­4** 

**2.3.1 Market**  **Assessment ..................................................................................2­4** 

**2.3.2 Technology**  **Assessment...........................................................................2­4**

**2.3.3 Product**  **Classes ........................................................................................2­5** 

**2.4 SCREENING**  **ANALYSIS ......................................................................2­5** 

**2.5 ENGINEERING**  **ANALYSIS..................................................................2­5**

**2.5.1 Representative**  **Product Classes**  **...............................................................2­5**

**2.5.2 Selected**  **Baseline Lamps**  **.........................................................................2­5**

**2.5.3 Identified**  **Lamps and**  **Ballast Designs**  **.....................................................2­6**

**2.5.4 Developed**  **Candidate Standard**  **Level......................................................2­6**

**2.6 ENERGY**  **USE CHARACTERIZATION**  **...............................................2­6**

**2.7 PRODUCT**  **PRICE DETERMINATION**  **................................................2­7**

**2.8 LIFE­CYCLE**  **COST AND**  **PAYBACK PERIOD**  **ANALYSIS .............2­7** 

**2.9 NATIONAL**  **IMPACT ANALYSIS**  **........................................................2­8**

**2.9.1 National**  **Energy Savings**  **Analysis...........................................................2­8**

**2.9.2 Net**  **Present Value**  **Analysis .....................................................................2­8** 

**2.9.3 Efficiency**  **Scenarios and**  **Trends .............................................................2­9** 

**2.10 LIFE­CYCLE**  **COST SUB­GROUP**  **ANALYSIS ...................................2­10** 

**2.11 MANUFACTURER**  **IMPACT ANALYSIS............................................2­10** 

**2.12 UTILITY**  **IMPACT ANALYSIS**  **.............................................................2­10**

**2.13 ENVIRONMENTAL**  **ASSESSMENT ....................................................2­11** 

**2.14 EMPLOYMENT**  **IMPACT ANALYSIS**  **.................................................2­11**

**2.15 REGULATORY**  **IMPACT ANALYSIS**  **.................................................2­12**

**2.16 DEPARTMENT**  **OF JUSTICE**  **REVIEW ...............................................2­12** 

**1**CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

**3.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................3­1**

**3.1.1 Definitions................................................................................................3­1** 

**3.1.1.1 Fluorescent**  **Lamps ...................................................................................3­1** 

**3.1.1.2 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................3­2** 

**3.1.1.3 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................3­3**

**3.2 MARKET**  **ASSESSMENT ......................................................................3­4** 

**3.2.1 Trade**  **Association ....................................................................................3­4** 

**3.2.2 Manufacturers**  **and Market**  **Share.............................................................3­5**

**3.2.2.1 Small**  **Businesses......................................................................................3­6**

**3.2.3 Regulatory**  **Programs ...............................................................................3­7** 

**3.2.3.1 Federal**  **Energy Conservation**  **Standards ..................................................3­7** 

**3.2.3.2 Canadian**  **Energy Efficiency**  **Standards ...................................................3­10** 

**3.2.4 Non­Regulatory**  **Initiatives.......................................................................3­12**

**3.2.4.1 Federal**  **Energy Management**  **Program ....................................................3­12** 

**3.2.4.2 Consortium**  **for Energy**  **Efficiency...........................................................3­12**

**3.2.4.3 Energy**  **Efficient Commercial**  **Building Deduction..................................3­12** 

**3.2.4.4 Northeast**  **Energy Efficiency**  **Partnerships ...............................................3­13** 

**3.2.5 Historical**  **Shipments................................................................................3­13**

**3.3 TECHNOLOGY**  **ASSESSMENT............................................................3­16**

**3.3.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................3­16** 

**3.3.1.1 Highly**  **Emissive Electrode**  **Coatings .......................................................3­18** 

**3.3.1.2 Higher**  **Efficiency Lamp**  **Fill Gas**  **Composition .......................................3­18** 

**3.3.1.3 Higher**  **Efficiency Phosphors**  **...................................................................3­20**

**3.3.1.4 Glass**  **Coatings .........................................................................................3­25** 

**3.3.1.5 Higher**  **Efficiency Lamp**  **Diameter...........................................................3­25**

**3.3.1.6 Multi­Photon**  **Phosphors ..........................................................................3­26** 

**3.3.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................3­26**

**3.3.2.1 Higher**  **Temperature Operation**  **................................................................3­27**

**3.3.2.2 Microcavity**  **Filaments .............................................................................3­28** 

**3.3.2.3 Novel**  **Filament Materials**  **........................................................................3­29**

**3.3.2.4 Thinner**  **Filaments ....................................................................................3­29** 

**3.3.2.5 Efficient**  **Filament Coiling**  **.......................................................................3­29**

**3.3.2.6 Crystallite**  **Filament Coatings**  **..................................................................3­29**

**3.3.2.7 Efficient**  **Filament Orientation**  **.................................................................3­29**

**3.3.2.8 Higher**  **Efficiency Inert**  **Fill Gas**  **..............................................................3­30**

**3.3.2.9 Luminescent**  **Gas......................................................................................3­30**

**3.3.2.10 Tungsten­Halogen**  **Lamps........................................................................3­30**

**3.3.2.11 Higher**  **Pressure Tungsten­Halogen**  **Lamps .............................................3­30** 

**3.3.2.12 Non­Tungsten­Halogen**  **Regenerative Cycles..........................................3­31** 

**3.3.2.13 Infrared**  **Glass Coatings............................................................................3­31** 

**3.3.2.14 Integrally**  **Ballasted Low­Voltage**  **Lamps ................................................3­31** 

**3.3.2.15 Higher**  **Efficiency Reflector**  **Coatings......................................................3­31**

**3.3.2.16 Trihedral**  **Corner Reflectors**  **.....................................................................3­32**

**3.3.2.17 Efficient**  **Filament Placement...................................................................3­32** 

**2 3.4**  **PRODUCT CLASSES.............................................................................3­32** 

**3.4.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................3­32** 

**3.4.1.1 Physical**  **Constraints of**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **.............................................3­33**

**3.4.1.2 Lumen**  **Package ........................................................................................3­34** 

**3.4.1.3 Correlated**  **Color Temperature**  **.................................................................3­34**

**3.4.1.4 Ballast**  **Interoperability.............................................................................3­34**

**3.4.1.5 Lamp**  **Wattage ..........................................................................................3­35** 

**3.4.1.6 Lamp**  **Diameter ........................................................................................3­35** 

**3.4.1.7 Color**  **Rendering Index.............................................................................3­36** 

**3.4.1.8 Product**  **Classes and**  **Standard Form**  **for GSFL**  **........................................3­36**

**3.4.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................3­36**

**3.4.2.1 Wattage**  **....................................................................................................3­37**

**3.4.2.2 Modified**  **Spectrum ..................................................................................3­37** 

**3.4.2.3 Spot**  **Versus Flood**  **Incandescent Reflector**  **Lamps ..................................3­38** 

**3.4.2.4 Product**  **Classes and**  **Standard Form**  **for IRL**  **...........................................3­38**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................3­40** 

CHAPTER 4. SCREENING ANALYSIS

**4.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................4­1**

**4.2 SCREENED­OUT**  **TECHNOLGIES.......................................................4­2**

**4.2.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamp Screened­Out**  **Technologies ............4­2** 

**4.2.1.1 Multi­Photon**  **Phosphors ..........................................................................4­2** 

**4.2.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamp**  **Screened­Out Technologies**  **.....................4­2**

**4.2.2.1 Microcavity**  **Filaments .............................................................................4­3** 

**4.2.2.2 Novel**  **Filament Materials**  **........................................................................4­3**

**4.2.2.3 Crystallite**  **Filament Coatings**  **..................................................................4­3**

**4.2.2.4 Luminescent**  **Gas......................................................................................4­4**

**4.2.2.5 Non­Tungsten­Halogen**  **Regenerative Cycles..........................................4­4** 

**4.2.2.6 Infrared**  **Phosphor Glass**  **Coating .............................................................4­5** 

**4.2.2.7 Integrally**  **Ballasted Low**  **Voltage Lamps**  **................................................4­5**

**4.2.2.8 Trihedral**  **Corner Reflectors**  **.....................................................................4­5**

**4.3 SUMMARY**  **OF TECHNOLOGY**  **OPTIONS SCREENED**  **OUT..........4­6**

**4.4 REMAINING**  **TECHNOLOGIES ...........................................................4­6** 

**4.4.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps Design**  **Options ..............................4­6** 

**4.4.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **Design Options**  **.......................................4­7**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................4­8** 

CHAPTER 5. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

**5.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................5­1**

**5.2 ENGINEERING**  **ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK.......................................5­1** 

**5.3 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................5­3**

**5.3.1 Four­Foot**  **Medium Bipin**  **.........................................................................5­6**

**3 5.3.1.1**  **Baseline Models.......................................................................................5­6** 

**5.3.1.2 Candidate**  **Standard Levels**  **......................................................................5­8**

**5.3.1.3 System**  **Power Rating...............................................................................5­11** 

**5.3.1.4 Results......................................................................................................5­19** 

**5.3.2 Eight­foot**  **Single Pin**  **Slimline .................................................................5­24** 

**5.3.2.1 Baseline**  **Models.......................................................................................5­24**

**5.3.2.2 Candidate**  **Standard Levels**  **......................................................................5­25**

**5.3.2.3 System**  **Power Rating...............................................................................5­28** 

**5.3.2.4 Results......................................................................................................5­32** 

**5.3.3 Eight­Foot**  **Recessed Double**  **Contact HO**  **...............................................5­36**

**5.3.3.1 Baseline**  **Models.......................................................................................5­36**

**5.3.3.2 Candidate**  **Standard Levels**  **......................................................................5­36**

**5.3.3.3 System**  **Power Rating...............................................................................5­39** 

**5.3.3.4 Results......................................................................................................5­41** 

**5.4 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................5­44** 

**5.4.1 Baseline**  **Models.......................................................................................5­45**

**5.4.2 Candidate**  **Standard Levels**  **......................................................................5­45**

**5.4.3 Results......................................................................................................5­47** 

**5.5 SCALING**  **TO PRODUCT**  **CLASSES NOT**  **ANALYZED ....................5­49** 

**5.5.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................5­49** 

**5.5.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................5­50**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................5­52** 

CHAPTER 6. ENERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION

**6.1 PURPOSE**  **OF THE**  **DOCUMENT .........................................................6­1** 

**6.2 OPERATING**  **HOURS ............................................................................6­1** 

**6.3 RESULTS**  **OF THE**  **ENERGY USE**  **CHARACTERIZATION ..............6­8** 

**6.3.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................6­8** 

**6.3.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................6­11**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................6­13** 

CHAPTER 7. PRODUCT PRICE DETERMINATION

**7.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................7­1**

**7.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................7­1**

**7.2.1 End­User**  **Product Price............................................................................7­1** 

**7.2.2 Sales**  **Tax ..................................................................................................7­3** 

**7.3 PRODUCT**  **PRICE DETERMINATION**  **RESULTS ..............................7­4** 

**7.3.1 End­User**  **Prices for**  **General Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps........................7­4** 

**7.3.2 End­User**  **Prices for**  **Incandescent Reflector**  **Lamps ................................7­6** 

**7.3.3 Sales**  **Tax Results**  **.....................................................................................7­7**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................7­9** 

**4**CHAPTER 8. LIFE­CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS

**8.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................8­1**

**8.1.1 General**  **Approach for**  **Life­Cycle Cost**  **and Payback**  **Period Analyses**  **...8­1**

**8.1.2 Overview**  **of LCC**  **and PBP**  **Inputs...........................................................8­3**

**8.2 LIFE­CYCLE**  **COST INPUTS**  **................................................................8­6**

**8.2.1 Definition**  **.................................................................................................8­6**

**8.2.2 Total**  **Installed Cost**  **Inputs .......................................................................8­7** 

**8.2.2.1 Installation**  **Costs......................................................................................8­8**

**8.2.3 Operating**  **Cost Inputs**  **..............................................................................8­10**

**8.2.3.1 Operating**  **Hours.......................................................................................8­11**

**8.2.3.2 Power**  **Rating............................................................................................8­11**

**8.2.3.3 Electricity**  **Prices ......................................................................................8­12** 

**8.2.3.4 Electricity**  **Price Trend**  **.............................................................................8­13**

**8.2.4 Lifetime....................................................................................................8­16** 

**8.2.5 Replacement**  **Cost ....................................................................................8­16** 

**8.2.6 Analysis**  **Period ........................................................................................8­17** 

**8.2.7 Discount**  **Rate...........................................................................................8­18**

**8.2.7.1 Residential**  **Discount Rate........................................................................8­18** 

**8.2.7.2 Commercial**  **Discount Rate**  **......................................................................8­22**

**8.2.8 Effective**  **Date of**  **Standard.......................................................................8­25**

**8.2.9 Salvage**  **Value ..........................................................................................8­26** 

**8.3 PAYBACK**  **PERIOD INPUTS**  **................................................................8­26**

**8.3.1 Definition**  **.................................................................................................8­26**

**8.3.2 Rebuttable**  **Presumption Payback**  **Period .................................................8­27** 

**8.3.3 Inputs........................................................................................................8­28** 

**8.4 LAMP**  **PURCHASING EVENTS............................................................8­28** 

**8.5 LIFE­CYCLE**  **COST AND**  **PAYBACK PERIOD**  **RESULTS ................8­30** 

**8.5.1 Results**  **for General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ......................................8­31** 

**8.5.1.1 Product**  **Class: Four­foot**  **medium bipin**  **≤4,500K....................................8­31**

**8.5.1.2 Product**  **Class: 8­Foot**  **single pin**  **slimline ≤4,500K**  **.................................8­43**

**8.5.1.3 Product**  **Class: 8­foot**  **recessed double**  **contact HO**  **≤4,500K...................8­51**

**8.5.2 Life­Cycle**  **Cost Results**  **for Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps....................8­57** 

**8.6 DETAILED**  **RESULTS AND**  **SENSITIVITY RUNS.............................8­61** 

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................8­62** 

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

**9.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................9­1**

**9.2 SHIPMENTS**  **MODEL METHODOLOGY**  **............................................9­1**

**9.2.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................9­2** 

**9.2.1.1 Lamp**  **Replacement ..................................................................................9­2** 

**9.2.1.2 Lamp­and­Ballast**  **System Replacement**  **..................................................9­3**

**9.2.1.3 Lamp­and­Ballast**  **System New**  **Purchase ................................................9­4** 

**5 9.2.2**  **Incandescent Reflector**  **Lamps .................................................................9­4** 

**9.2.2.1 Emerging**  **Technologies ...........................................................................9­5** 

**9.3 BASE­CASE**  **INPUTS AND**  **FORECASTS ...........................................9­5** 

**9.3.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................9­5** 

**9.3.1.1 Historical**  **Shipments................................................................................9­5**

**9.3.1.2 Shipments**  **Projections to**  **2011 and**  **Calculations of**  **2011 Lamp**  **and**

**Ballast Stocks...........................................................................................9­6** 

**9.3.1.3 Base­Case**  **Market­Share Matrices...........................................................9­7** 

**9.3.1.4 Base­Case**  **Forecast Results**  **.....................................................................9­12**

**9.3.1.5 Base­Case**  **Forecast by**  **Market Segment..................................................9­15** 

**9.3.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................9­18**

**9.3.2.1 Historical**  **Shipments................................................................................9­18**

**9.3.2.2 Shipments**  **Projections to**  **2011 and**  **Calculations of**  **2011 Lamp**  **Stock ...9­19** 

**9.3.2.3 Base­Case**  **Market­Share Matrices...........................................................9­19** 

**9.3.2.4 Base­Case**  **Forecast Results**  **.....................................................................9­21**

**9.3.2.5 Base­Case**  **Forecast by**  **Market Segment..................................................9­23** 

**9.4 STANDARDS­CASE**  **INPUTS ...............................................................9­24** 

**9.4.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................9­24** 

**9.4.1.1 Shipments**  **Scenarios ................................................................................9­24** 

**9.4.1.2 Standards­Case**  **Market­Share Matrices...................................................9­25** 

**9.4.1.3 Early**  **Retirement of**  **Ballasts in**  **the Standards**  **Cases ...............................9­42** 

**9.4.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................9­44**

**9.4.2.1 Shipments**  **Scenarios ................................................................................9­44** 

**9.4.2.2 Standards­Case**  **Market­Share Matrices...................................................9­45** 

**9.5 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................9­48**

**9.5.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................9­48** 

**9.5.1.1 Shipments**  **Forecasts: Base**  **and Standards**  **Cases.....................................9­48**

**9.5.1.2 Cumulative**  **Shipments Impacts**  **(2012**

**– 2042)........................................9­54** 

**9.5.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................9­56**

**9.5.2.1 Shipments**  **Forecasts: Base**  **and Standards**  **Cases....................................9­56**

**9.5.2.2 Cumulative**  **Shipments Impacts**  **(2012–2042)..........................................9­58**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................9­60** 

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

**10.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................10­1**

**10.2 BASE**  **CASE AND**  **STANDARDS CASE**  **EFFICACY FORECASTS,** 

**LAMP STOCK,**  **AND LIGHT**  **OUTPUT ................................................10­1** 

**10.2.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................10­3** 

**10.2.1.1 Base**  **and Standards**  **Case Efficacy**  **Distributions .....................................10­3** 

**10.2.1.2 Installed**  **Lamp Stock**  **...............................................................................10­9**

**10.2.1.3 Average**  **Lamp Efficacy**  **and Ballast**  **Factor in**  **the Stock.........................10­14** 

**10.2.1.4 Light**  **Output.............................................................................................10­20**

**10.2.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................10­24**

**10.2.2.1 Base**  **and Standards**  **Case Efficacy**  **Distributions .....................................10­24** 

**6 10.2.2.2**  **Installed Lamp**  **Stock ...............................................................................10­25** 

**10.2.2.3 Average**  **Lamp Efficacy**  **of the**  **Stock.......................................................10­27**

**10.2.2.4 Light**  **Output.............................................................................................10­29**

**10.3 NATIONAL**  **ENERGY SAVINGS**  **.........................................................10­31**

**10.3.1 National**  **Energy Savings**  **Definition ........................................................10­31** 

**10.3.2 National**  **Energy Savings**  **Inputs...............................................................10­32**

**10.3.2.1 Unit**  **Energy Consumption**  **(UEC)............................................................10­32**

**10.3.2.2 Lamp**  **Stock ..............................................................................................10­32** 

**10.3.2.3 Site­to­Source**  **Conversion Factors**  **..........................................................10­32**

**10.3.2.4 Interactions**  **with Heating,**  **Ventilation, and**  **Air­Conditioning (HVAC)** 

**Systems ....................................................................................................10­33** 

**10.3.2.5 Rebound**  **Rate...........................................................................................10­34**

**10.4 NET**  **PRESENT VALUE**  **.........................................................................10­34**

**10.4.1 Net**  **Present Value**  **Definition ...................................................................10­34** 

**10.4.2 Net**  **Present Value**  **Inputs .........................................................................10­35** 

**10.4.2.1 Total**  **Annual Installed**  **Cost Increases**  **.....................................................10­36**

**10.4.2.2 Total**  **Annual Operating**  **Cost Savings**  **.....................................................10­36**

**10.4.2.3 Discount**  **Factor ........................................................................................10­36** 

**10.5 NATIONAL**  **ENERGY SAVINGS**  **AND NET**  **PRESENT VALUE** 

**RESULTS ................................................................................................10­37** 

**10.5.1 National**  **Energy Savings**  **and Net**  **Present Value**  **Input Summary...........10­37** 

**10.5.2 Base**  **Case Energy**  **Consumption..............................................................10­38**

**10.5.3 National**  **Energy Savings**  **Results.............................................................10­40**

**10.5.3.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................10­40** 

**10.5.3.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................10­42**

**10.5.4 Annual**  **Costs and**  **Savings .......................................................................10­43** 

**10.5.5 Net**  **Present Value**  **Results........................................................................10­45**

**10.5.5.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................10­46** 

**10.5.5.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................10­47**

CHAPTER 11. LIFE­CYCLE COST SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS

**11.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................11­1**

**11.2 GENERAL**  **APPROACH TO**  **THE LIFE­CYCLE**  **COST SUB** 

**GROUP ANALYSIS**  **...............................................................................11­1**

CHAPTER 12. PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS

**12.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................12­1**

**12.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................12­1**

**12.2.1 Phase**  **I: Industry**  **Profile..........................................................................12­2**

**12.2.2 Phase**  **II: Industry**  **Cash­Flow Analysis**  **and Interview**  **Guide.................12­2**

**12.2.3 Phase**  **III: Sub­Group**  **Analysis ...............................................................12­3** 

**12.3 PRELIMINARY**  **MANUFACTURER IMPACT**  **OVERVIEW..............12­5**

**12.3.1 Overview**  **of Industry**  **Data.......................................................................12­5**

**7 12.3.2**  **Preliminary Manufacturing**  **Interview Overview.....................................12­7** 

**12.4 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................12­9**

**12.4.1 Product**  **Mix .............................................................................................12­9** 

**12.4.2 Conversion**  **Costs .....................................................................................12­10** 

**12.4.3 Materials**  **Availability ..............................................................................12­10** 

**12.5 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................12­10** 

**12.5.1 Product**  **Mix .............................................................................................12­10** 

**12.5.2 Conversion**  **Costs .....................................................................................12­11** 

**12.6 SUMMARY**  **OF MAJOR**  **ISSUES FROM**  **PRELIMINARY MIA**  **........12­11**

**12.6.1 Retooling**  **Equipment to**  **Produce Standards­Compliant**  **Lamps ..............12­11** 

**12.6.2 Availability**  **of Materials**  **to Produce**  **Standards­Compliant Lamps**  **.........12­11**

**12.6.3 Maintaining**  **Product Availability**  **and Features**  **.......................................12­11**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................12­13** 

CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

**13.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................13­1**

**13.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................13­1**

**13.3 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................13­3**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................13­4** 

CHAPTER 14. EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

**14.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................14­1**

**14.2 ASSUMPTIONS......................................................................................14­1** 

**14.3 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................14­1**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................14­3** 

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY

CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR GENERAL SERVICE

FLUORESCENT LAMPS AND INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS

**EA.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................EA­2**

**EA.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................EA­2**

**EA.3 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................EA­4**

**REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................EA­5** 

REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS

**RIA.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................RIA­1**

**RIA.2 METHODOLOGY**  **..................................................................................RIA­1**

**8**APPENDIX 3A. LIGHTING DEFINITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

CODE AND CODE OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS

**3A.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................3A­1**

**3A.1.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................3A­1** 

**3A.1.1.1 United**  **States Code**  **Definitions................................................................3A­1**

**3A.1.1.2 Code**  **of Federal**  **Regulations Definitions**  **in 10**  **CFR 430.2**  **.....................3A­2**

**3A.1.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................3A­4**

**3A.1.2.1 United**  **States Code**  **Definitions................................................................3A­4**

**3A.1.2.2 Code**  **of Federal**  **Regulations Definitions**  **in 10**  **CFR 430.2**  **.....................3A­7**

**3A.1.3 All**  **Covered Lamps**  **..................................................................................3A­8**

APPENDIX 5A. ENGINEERING RESULTS USED IN THE SHIPMENTS

AND NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

**5A.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................5A­1**

**5A.2 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................5A­1**

**5A.2.1 4­foot**  **Medium Bipin**  **General Service**  **Fluorescent Lamps**  **.....................5A­2**

**5A.2.2 8­foot**  **Single Pin**  **Slimline General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps .............5A­5** 

**5A.2.3 8­foot**  **Recessed Double**  **Contact HO**  **General Service**  **Fluorescent**

**Lamps.......................................................................................................5A­7**

**5A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................5A­8** 

APPENDIX 6A. ENERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION RESULTS USED

IN THE NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

**6A.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................6A­1**

**6A.2 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................6A­1**

**6A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................6A­4** 

APPENDIX 7A. ADDITIONAL END­USER PRICES

**7A.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................7A­1**

**7A.2 FLUORESCENT**  **LAMP BALLASTS**  **....................................................7A­1**

**7A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................7A­1** 

APPENDIX 8A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LCC AND PBP

SPREADSHEETS

**8A.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................8A­1**

**8A.2 LCC**  **AND PBP**  **WORKBOOK ...............................................................8A­1** 

**9 8A.3**  **BASIC INSTRUCTIONS**  **........................................................................8A­2**

APPENDIX 8B. SUPPLEMENTARY LIFE CYCLE COST AND

PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS

**8B.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................8B­1**

**8B.2 INTRODUCTION**  **TO UNCERTAINTY**  **AND VARIABILITY**  **...........8B­1**

**8B.3 UNCERTAINTY**  **.....................................................................................8B­2**

**8B.4 VARIABILITY........................................................................................8B­2** 

**8B.5 APPROACHES**  **TO UNCERTAINTY**  **AND VARIABILITY**  **...............8B­2**

**8B.6 PROBABILITY**  **ANALYSIS AND**  **THE USE**  **OF CRYSTAL**  **BALL...8B­3**

**8B.7 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **RESULTS..............................8B­4**

**8B.7.1 Monte**  **Carlo Results**  **................................................................................8B­4**

**8B.7.1.1 4­foot**  **Medium Bipin**  **...............................................................................8B­4**

**8B.7.1.2 8­foot**  **Single Pin**  **Slimline........................................................................8B­10**

**8B.7.1.3 8­foot**  **Recessed Double**  **Contact High**  **Output.........................................8B­13**

**8B.7.2 Lamp**  **and Ballast**  **Price Scenario**  **Results ................................................8B­17** 

**8B.7.2.1 4­foot**  **Medium Bipin**  **...............................................................................8B­17**

**8B.7.2.2 8­foot**  **Single Pin**  **Slimline........................................................................8B­32**

**8B.7.2.3 8­foot**  **Recessed Double**  **Contact HO**  **.......................................................8B­41**

**8B.8 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR RESULTS.........................................8B­51** 

**8B.8.3 Monte**  **Carlo Results**  **................................................................................8B­52**

**8B.8.4 Lamp**  **Price Scenario**  **Results ...................................................................8B­55** 

**8B.8.5 Operating**  **Hour Scenario**  **Results.............................................................8B­62**

APPENDIX 8C. RESIDENTIAL DISCOUNT RATE DISTRIBUTIONS

**8C.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................8C­1**

**8C.2 DISTRIBUTION**  **OF REAL**  **INTEREST RATES**  **FOR CONSUMER** 

**DEBT CLASSES**  **.....................................................................................8C­1**

**8C.3 DISTRIBUTION**  **OF REAL**  **INTEREST RATES**  **FOR FINANCIAL** 

**ASSETS ...................................................................................................8C­2** 

APPENDIX 9A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE

SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

**9A.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................9A­1**

**9A.2 STANDARDS­CASE**  **MARKET­SHARE MATRICES**  **........................9A­1**

**9A.3 RESULTS**  **................................................................................................9A­4**

APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

**10 10A.1**  **INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................10A­1** 

**10A.1.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................10A­1** 

**10A.1.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................10A­5**

**10A.2 BASIC**  **INSTRUCTIONS ........................................................................10A­5** 

**10A.2.1 General**  **Service Fluorescent**  **Lamps ........................................................10A­5** 

**10A.2.2 Incandescent**  **Reflector Lamps**  **.................................................................10A­6**

APPENDIX 10B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE

NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

**10B.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................10B­1**

**10B.2 STANDARDS**  **CASE EFFICACY**  **FORECAST, LAMP**  **STOCK AND** 

**LUMEN OUTPUT...................................................................................10B­1** 

**10B.3 NATIONAL**  **ENERGY SAVINGS**  **AND NET**  **PRESENT VALUE** 

**RESULTS ................................................................................................10B­7** 

APPENDIX 12A. PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURER INTERVIEW

GUIDE

**12A.1 INTRODUCTION**  **...................................................................................12A­1**

**12A.2 GENERAL**  **SERVICE FLUORESCENT**  **LAMPS..................................12A­2**

**12A.3 INCANDESCENT**  **REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................12A­11** 

**11**