TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 PURPOSE OF THE DOCUMENT .........................................................1­1

1.2 OVERVIEW OF THE APPLIANCES AND COMMERCIAL

EQUIPMENT STANDARDS PROGRAM.............................................1­1

1.3 OVERVIEW OF THE SUBCATEGORIES OF LAMPS COVERED ...1­2

1.4 PROCESS FOR SETTING ENERGY CONERVATION

STANDARDS..........................................................................................1­4

1.5 STRUCTURE OF THE DOCUMENT....................................................1­7

CHAPTER 2. ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

2.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................2­1

2.2 BACKGROUND .....................................................................................2­4

2.3 MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT................................2­4

2.3.1 Market Assessment ..................................................................................2­4

2.3.2 Technology Assessment...........................................................................2­4

2.3.3 Product Classes........................................................................................2­5

2.4 SCREENING ANALYSIS ......................................................................2­5

2.5 ENGINEERING ANALYSIS..................................................................2­5

2.5.1 Representative Product Classes ...............................................................2­5

2.5.2 Selected Baseline Lamps .........................................................................2­5

2.5.3 Identified Lamps and Ballast Designs .....................................................2­6

2.5.4 Developed Candidate Standard Level......................................................2­6

2.6 ENERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION ...............................................2­6

2.7 PRODUCT PRICE DETERMINATION ................................................2­7

2.8 LIFE­CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS .............2­7

2.9 NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS........................................................2­8

2.9.1 National Energy Savings Analysis...........................................................2­8

2.9.2 Net Present Value Analysis .....................................................................2­8

2.9.3 Efficiency Scenarios and Trends .............................................................2­9

2.10 LIFE­CYCLE COST SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS...................................2­10

2.11 MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS............................................2­10

2.12 UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS.............................................................2­10

2.13 ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT ....................................................2­11

2.14 EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS.................................................2­11

2.15 REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS .................................................2­12

2.16 DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE REVIEW ...............................................2­12

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CHAPTER 3. MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

3.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................3­1

3.1.1 Definitions................................................................................................3­1

3.1.1.1 Fluorescent Lamps...................................................................................3­1

3.1.1.2 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................3­2

3.1.1.3 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................3­3

3.2 MARKET ASSESSMENT......................................................................3­4

3.2.1 Trade Association ....................................................................................3­4

3.2.2 Manufacturers and Market Share.............................................................3­5

3.2.2.1 Small Businesses......................................................................................3­6

3.2.3 Regulatory Programs ...............................................................................3­7

3.2.3.1 Federal Energy Conservation Standards..................................................3­7

3.2.3.2 Canadian Energy Efficiency Standards ...................................................3­10

3.2.4 Non­Regulatory Initiatives.......................................................................3­12

3.2.4.1 Federal Energy Management Program ....................................................3­12

3.2.4.2 Consortium for Energy Efficiency...........................................................3­12

3.2.4.3 Energy Efficient Commercial Building Deduction..................................3­12

3.2.4.4 Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships...............................................3­13

3.2.5 Historical Shipments................................................................................3­13

3.3 TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT............................................................3­16

3.3.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................3­16

3.3.1.1 Highly Emissive Electrode Coatings.......................................................3­18

3.3.1.2 Higher Efficiency Lamp Fill Gas Composition.......................................3­18

3.3.1.3 Higher Efficiency Phosphors...................................................................3­20

3.3.1.4 Glass Coatings .........................................................................................3­25

3.3.1.5 Higher Efficiency Lamp Diameter...........................................................3­25

3.3.1.6 Multi­Photon Phosphors..........................................................................3­26

3.3.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................3­26

3.3.2.1 Higher Temperature Operation................................................................3­27

3.3.2.2 Microcavity Filaments.............................................................................3­28

3.3.2.3 Novel Filament Materials ........................................................................3­29

3.3.2.4 Thinner Filaments....................................................................................3­29

3.3.2.5 Efficient Filament Coiling .......................................................................3­29

3.3.2.6 Crystallite Filament Coatings ..................................................................3­29

3.3.2.7 Efficient Filament Orientation .................................................................3­29

3.3.2.8 Higher Efficiency Inert Fill Gas ..............................................................3­30

3.3.2.9 Luminescent Gas......................................................................................3­30

3.3.2.10 Tungsten­Halogen Lamps........................................................................3­30

3.3.2.11 Higher Pressure Tungsten­Halogen Lamps.............................................3­30

3.3.2.12 Non­Tungsten­Halogen Regenerative Cycles..........................................3­31

3.3.2.13 Infrared Glass Coatings............................................................................3­31

3.3.2.14 Integrally Ballasted Low­Voltage Lamps................................................3­31

3.3.2.15 Higher Efficiency Reflector Coatings......................................................3­31

3.3.2.16 Trihedral Corner Reflectors.....................................................................3­32

3.3.2.17 Efficient Filament Placement...................................................................3­32

2
3.4 PRODUCT CLASSES.............................................................................3­32

3.4.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................3­32

3.4.1.1 Physical Constraints of Fluorescent Lamps.............................................3­33

3.4.1.2 Lumen Package........................................................................................3­34

3.4.1.3 Correlated Color Temperature .................................................................3­34

3.4.1.4 Ballast Interoperability.............................................................................3­34

3.4.1.5 Lamp Wattage..........................................................................................3­35

3.4.1.6 Lamp Diameter ........................................................................................3­35

3.4.1.7 Color Rendering Index.............................................................................3­36

3.4.1.8 Product Classes and Standard Form for GSFL........................................3­36

3.4.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................3­36

3.4.2.1 Wattage ....................................................................................................3­37

3.4.2.2 Modified Spectrum ..................................................................................3­37

3.4.2.3 Spot Versus Flood Incandescent Reflector Lamps..................................3­38

3.4.2.4 Product Classes and Standard Form for IRL ...........................................3­38

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................3­40

CHAPTER 4. SCREENING ANALYSIS

4.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................4­1

4.2 SCREENED­OUT TECHNOLGIES.......................................................4­2

4.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamp Screened­Out Technologies ............4­2

4.2.1.1 Multi­Photon Phosphors..........................................................................4­2

4.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamp Screened­Out Technologies.....................4­2

4.2.2.1 Microcavity Filaments.............................................................................4­3

4.2.2.2 Novel Filament Materials ........................................................................4­3

4.2.2.3 Crystallite Filament Coatings ..................................................................4­3

4.2.2.4 Luminescent Gas......................................................................................4­4

4.2.2.5 Non­Tungsten­Halogen Regenerative Cycles..........................................4­4

4.2.2.6 Infrared Phosphor Glass Coating.............................................................4­5

4.2.2.7 Integrally Ballasted Low Voltage Lamps................................................4­5

4.2.2.8 Trihedral Corner Reflectors.....................................................................4­5

4.3 SUMMARY OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS SCREENED OUT..........4­6

4.4 REMAINING TECHNOLOGIES ...........................................................4­6

4.4.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps Design Options ..............................4­6

4.4.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps Design Options.......................................4­7

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................4­8

CHAPTER 5. ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

5.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................5­1

5.2 ENGINEERING ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK.......................................5­1

5.3 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT LAMPS..................................5­3

5.3.1 Four­Foot Medium Bipin.........................................................................5­6

3
5.3.1.1 Baseline Models.......................................................................................5­6

5.3.1.2 Candidate Standard Levels ......................................................................5­8

5.3.1.3 System Power Rating...............................................................................5­11

5.3.1.4 Results......................................................................................................5­19

5.3.2 Eight­foot Single Pin Slimline.................................................................5­24

5.3.2.1 Baseline Models.......................................................................................5­24

5.3.2.2 Candidate Standard Levels ......................................................................5­25

5.3.2.3 System Power Rating...............................................................................5­28

5.3.2.4 Results......................................................................................................5­32

5.3.3 Eight­Foot Recessed Double Contact HO ...............................................5­36

5.3.3.1 Baseline Models.......................................................................................5­36

5.3.3.2 Candidate Standard Levels ......................................................................5­36

5.3.3.3 System Power Rating...............................................................................5­39

5.3.3.4 Results......................................................................................................5­41

5.4 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................5­44

5.4.1 Baseline Models.......................................................................................5­45

5.4.2 Candidate Standard Levels ......................................................................5­45

5.4.3 Results......................................................................................................5­47

5.5 SCALING TO PRODUCT CLASSES NOT ANALYZED ....................5­49

5.5.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................5­49

5.5.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................5­50

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................5­52

CHAPTER 6. ENERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION

6.1 PURPOSE OF THE DOCUMENT .........................................................6­1

6.2 OPERATING HOURS ............................................................................6­1

6.3 RESULTS OF THE ENERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION ..............6­8

6.3.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................6­8

6.3.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................6­11

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................6­13

CHAPTER 7. PRODUCT PRICE DETERMINATION

7.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................7­1

7.2 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................7­1

7.2.1 End­User Product Price............................................................................7­1

7.2.2 Sales Tax..................................................................................................7­3

7.3 PRODUCT PRICE DETERMINATION RESULTS..............................7­4

7.3.1 End­User Prices for General Service Fluorescent Lamps........................7­4

7.3.2 End­User Prices for Incandescent Reflector Lamps................................7­6

7.3.3 Sales Tax Results.....................................................................................7­7

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................7­9

4
CHAPTER 8. LIFE­CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD ANALYSIS

8.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................8­1

8.1.1 General Approach for Life­Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses ...8­1

8.1.2 Overview of LCC and PBP Inputs...........................................................8­3

8.2 LIFE­CYCLE COST INPUTS ................................................................8­6

8.2.1 Definition .................................................................................................8­6

8.2.2 Total Installed Cost Inputs.......................................................................8­7

8.2.2.1 Installation Costs......................................................................................8­8

8.2.3 Operating Cost Inputs..............................................................................8­10

8.2.3.1 Operating Hours.......................................................................................8­11

8.2.3.2 Power Rating............................................................................................8­11

8.2.3.3 Electricity Prices......................................................................................8­12

8.2.3.4 Electricity Price Trend .............................................................................8­13

8.2.4 Lifetime....................................................................................................8­16

8.2.5 Replacement Cost ....................................................................................8­16

8.2.6 Analysis Period ........................................................................................8­17

8.2.7 Discount Rate...........................................................................................8­18

8.2.7.1 Residential Discount Rate........................................................................8­18

8.2.7.2 Commercial Discount Rate......................................................................8­22

8.2.8 Effective Date of Standard.......................................................................8­25

8.2.9 Salvage Value ..........................................................................................8­26

8.3 PAYBACK PERIOD INPUTS................................................................8­26

8.3.1 Definition .................................................................................................8­26

8.3.2 Rebuttable Presumption Payback Period.................................................8­27

8.3.3 Inputs........................................................................................................8­28

8.4 LAMP PURCHASING EVENTS............................................................8­28

8.5 LIFE­CYCLE COST AND PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS................8­30

8.5.1 Results for General Service Fluorescent Lamps......................................8­31

8.5.1.1 Product Class: Four­foot medium bipin ≤4,500K....................................8­31

8.5.1.2 Product Class: 8­Foot single pin slimline ≤4,500K.................................8­43

8.5.1.3 Product Class: 8­foot recessed double contact HO ≤4,500K...................8­51

8.5.2 Life­Cycle Cost Results for Incandescent Reflector Lamps....................8­57

8.6 DETAILED RESULTS AND SENSITIVITY RUNS.............................8­61

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................8­62

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................9­1

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY............................................9­1

9.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................9­2

9.2.1.1 Lamp Replacement ..................................................................................9­2

9.2.1.2 Lamp­and­Ballast System Replacement..................................................9­3

9.2.1.3 Lamp­and­Ballast System New Purchase................................................9­4

5
9.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................9­4

9.2.2.1 Emerging Technologies...........................................................................9­5

9.3 BASE­CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS ...........................................9­5

9.3.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................9­5

9.3.1.1 Historical Shipments................................................................................9­5

9.3.1.2 Shipments Projections to 2011 and Calculations of 2011 Lamp and

Ballast Stocks...........................................................................................9­6

9.3.1.3 Base­Case Market­Share Matrices...........................................................9­7

9.3.1.4 Base­Case Forecast Results.....................................................................9­12

9.3.1.5 Base­Case Forecast by Market Segment..................................................9­15

9.3.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................9­18

9.3.2.1 Historical Shipments................................................................................9­18

9.3.2.2 Shipments Projections to 2011 and Calculations of 2011 Lamp Stock...9­19

9.3.2.3 Base­Case Market­Share Matrices...........................................................9­19

9.3.2.4 Base­Case Forecast Results.....................................................................9­21

9.3.2.5 Base­Case Forecast by Market Segment..................................................9­23

9.4 STANDARDS­CASE INPUTS...............................................................9­24

9.4.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................9­24

9.4.1.1 Shipments Scenarios................................................................................9­24

9.4.1.2 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrices...................................................9­25

9.4.1.3 Early Retirement of Ballasts in the Standards Cases...............................9­42

9.4.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................9­44

9.4.2.1 Shipments Scenarios................................................................................9­44

9.4.2.2 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrices...................................................9­45

9.5 RESULTS ................................................................................................9­48

9.5.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................9­48

9.5.1.1 Shipments Forecasts: Base and Standards Cases.....................................9­48

9.5.1.2 Cumulative Shipments Impacts (2012 – 2042)........................................9­54

9.5.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................9­56

9.5.2.1 Shipments Forecasts: Base and Standards Cases....................................9­56

9.5.2.2 Cumulative Shipments Impacts (2012–2042)..........................................9­58

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................9­60

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................10­1

10.2 BASE CASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICACY FORECASTS,

LAMP STOCK, AND LIGHT OUTPUT................................................10­1

10.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................10­3

10.2.1.1 Base and Standards Case Efficacy Distributions.....................................10­3

10.2.1.2 Installed Lamp Stock ...............................................................................10­9

10.2.1.3 Average Lamp Efficacy and Ballast Factor in the Stock.........................10­14

10.2.1.4 Light Output.............................................................................................10­20

10.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................10­24

10.2.2.1 Base and Standards Case Efficacy Distributions.....................................10­24

6
10.2.2.2 Installed Lamp Stock ...............................................................................10­25

10.2.2.3 Average Lamp Efficacy of the Stock.......................................................10­27

10.2.2.4 Light Output.............................................................................................10­29

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS .........................................................10­31

10.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition ........................................................10­31

10.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs...............................................................10­32

10.3.2.1 Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)............................................................10­32

10.3.2.2 Lamp Stock ..............................................................................................10­32

10.3.2.3 Site­to­Source Conversion Factors..........................................................10­32

10.3.2.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air­Conditioning (HVAC)

Systems....................................................................................................10­33

10.3.2.5 Rebound Rate...........................................................................................10­34

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE.........................................................................10­34

10.4.1 Net Present Value Definition...................................................................10­34

10.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs .........................................................................10­35

10.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases .....................................................10­36

10.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings .....................................................10­36

10.4.2.3 Discount Factor........................................................................................10­36

10.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

RESULTS ................................................................................................10­37

10.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary...........10­37

10.5.2 Base Case Energy Consumption..............................................................10­38

10.5.3 National Energy Savings Results.............................................................10­40

10.5.3.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................10­40

10.5.3.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................10­42

10.5.4 Annual Costs and Savings .......................................................................10­43

10.5.5 Net Present Value Results........................................................................10­45

10.5.5.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................10­46

10.5.5.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................10­47

CHAPTER 11. LIFE­CYCLE COST SUB­GROUP ANALYSIS

11.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................11­1

11.2 GENERAL APPROACH TO THE LIFE­CYCLE COST SUBGROUP ANALYSIS ...............................................................................11­1

CHAPTER 12. PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS

12.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................12­1

12.2 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................12­1

12.2.1 Phase I: Industry Profile..........................................................................12­2

12.2.2 Phase II: Industry Cash­Flow Analysis and Interview Guide.................12­2

12.2.3 Phase III: Sub­Group Analysis ...............................................................12­3

12.3 PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURER IMPACT OVERVIEW..............12­5

12.3.1 Overview of Industry Data.......................................................................12­5

7
12.3.2 Preliminary Manufacturing Interview Overview.....................................12­7

12.4 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT LAMPS..................................12­9

12.4.1 Product Mix .............................................................................................12­9

12.4.2 Conversion Costs.....................................................................................12­10

12.4.3 Materials Availability ..............................................................................12­10

12.5 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................12­10

12.5.1 Product Mix .............................................................................................12­10

12.5.2 Conversion Costs.....................................................................................12­11

12.6 SUMMARY OF MAJOR ISSUES FROM PRELIMINARY MIA ........12­11

12.6.1 Retooling Equipment to Produce Standards­Compliant Lamps..............12­11

12.6.2 Availability of Materials to Produce Standards­Compliant Lamps.........12­11

12.6.3 Maintaining Product Availability and Features.......................................12­11

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................12­13

CHAPTER 13. UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

13.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................13­1

13.2 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................13­1

13.3 RESULTS ................................................................................................13­3

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................13­4

CHAPTER 14. EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

14.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................14­1

14.2 ASSUMPTIONS......................................................................................14­1

14.3 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................14­1

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................14­3

ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR PROPOSED ENERGY

CONSERVATION STANDARDS FOR GENERAL SERVICE

FLUORESCENT LAMPS AND INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS

EA.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................EA­2

EA.2 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................EA­2

EA.3 RESULTS ................................................................................................EA­4

REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................EA­5

REGULATORY IMPACT ANALYSIS

RIA.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................RIA­1

RIA.2 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................RIA­1

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APPENDIX 3A. LIGHTING DEFINITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

CODE AND CODE OF FEDERAL REGULATIONS

3A.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................3A­1

3A.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................3A­1

3A.1.1.1 United States Code Definitions................................................................3A­1

3A.1.1.2 Code of Federal Regulations Definitions in 10 CFR 430.2.....................3A­2

3A.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................3A­4

3A.1.2.1 United States Code Definitions................................................................3A­4

3A.1.2.2 Code of Federal Regulations Definitions in 10 CFR 430.2.....................3A­7

3A.1.3 All Covered Lamps..................................................................................3A­8

APPENDIX 5A. ENGINEERING RESULTS USED IN THE SHIPMENTS

AND NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

5A.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................5A­1

5A.2 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT LAMPS..................................5A­1

5A.2.1 4­foot Medium Bipin General Service Fluorescent Lamps.....................5A­2

5A.2.2 8­foot Single Pin Slimline General Service Fluorescent Lamps .............5A­5

5A.2.3 8­foot Recessed Double Contact HO General Service Fluorescent

Lamps.......................................................................................................5A­7

5A.3 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................5A­8

APPENDIX 6A. ENERGY USE CHARACTERIZATION RESULTS USED

IN THE NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

6A.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................6A­1

6A.2 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT LAMPS..................................6A­1

6A.3 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................6A­4

APPENDIX 7A. ADDITIONAL END­USER PRICES

7A.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................7A­1

7A.2 FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS....................................................7A­1

7A.3 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................7A­1

APPENDIX 8A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR LCC AND PBP

SPREADSHEETS

8A.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................8A­1

8A.2 LCC AND PBP WORKBOOK ...............................................................8A­1

9
8A.3 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS........................................................................8A­2

APPENDIX 8B. SUPPLEMENTARY LIFE CYCLE COST AND

PAYBACK PERIOD RESULTS

8B.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................8B­1

8B.2 INTRODUCTION TO UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY ...........8B­1

8B.3 UNCERTAINTY .....................................................................................8B­2

8B.4 VARIABILITY........................................................................................8B­2

8B.5 APPROACHES TO UNCERTAINTY AND VARIABILITY ...............8B­2

8B.6 PROBABILITY ANALYSIS AND THE USE OF CRYSTAL BALL...8B­3

8B.7 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT RESULTS..............................8B­4

8B.7.1 Monte Carlo Results ................................................................................8B­4

8B.7.1.1 4­foot Medium Bipin ...............................................................................8B­4

8B.7.1.2 8­foot Single Pin Slimline........................................................................8B­10

8B.7.1.3 8­foot Recessed Double Contact High Output.........................................8B­13

8B.7.2 Lamp and Ballast Price Scenario Results ................................................8B­17

8B.7.2.1 4­foot Medium Bipin ...............................................................................8B­17

8B.7.2.2 8­foot Single Pin Slimline........................................................................8B­32

8B.7.2.3 8­foot Recessed Double Contact HO.......................................................8B­41

8B.8 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR RESULTS.........................................8B­51

8B.8.3 Monte Carlo Results ................................................................................8B­52

8B.8.4 Lamp Price Scenario Results...................................................................8B­55

8B.8.5 Operating Hour Scenario Results.............................................................8B­62

APPENDIX 8C. RESIDENTIAL DISCOUNT RATE DISTRIBUTIONS

8C.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................8C­1

8C.2 DISTRIBUTION OF REAL INTEREST RATES FOR CONSUMER

DEBT CLASSES.....................................................................................8C­1

8C.3 DISTRIBUTION OF REAL INTEREST RATES FOR FINANCIAL

ASSETS...................................................................................................8C­2

APPENDIX 9A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE

SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9A.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................9A­1

9A.2 STANDARDS­CASE MARKET­SHARE MATRICES ........................9A­1

9A.3 RESULTS ................................................................................................9A­4

APPENDIX 10A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA

SPREADSHEETS

10
10A.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................10A­1

10A.1.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................10A­1

10A.1.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................10A­5

10A.2 BASIC INSTRUCTIONS........................................................................10A­5

10A.2.1 General Service Fluorescent Lamps ........................................................10A­5

10A.2.2 Incandescent Reflector Lamps.................................................................10A­6

APPENDIX 10B. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIOS FOR THE

NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10B.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................10B­1

10B.2 STANDARDS CASE EFFICACY FORECAST, LAMP STOCK AND

LUMEN OUTPUT...................................................................................10B­1

10B.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE

RESULTS ................................................................................................10B­7

APPENDIX 12A. PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURER INTERVIEW

GUIDE

12A.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................12A­1

12A.2 GENERAL SERVICE FLUORESCENT LAMPS..................................12A­2

12A.3 INCANDESCENT REFLECTOR LAMPS.............................................12A­11

11