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# OAR Box 1828 Prepped by Ollie Stewart



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Number: 

# 319 ) IV-B-2

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Docket Number: 

# A-83-2 7

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# A-83-2 7 RADIA N

CORPORATIO N

IV-B-2 3

MEMORANDU

M

DATE : Jun e 15 , 198 7
TO : Wal t Stevenson , EPA/OAQPS/ESE D
FROM : Davi dWhite , Radia nCorporatio n
SUBJECT : Impac t o f a 9 0 Percen t SOpReductio nStandar do nAnnua l SO Emission s

1. 0 INTRODUCTION Change s inSO - emission s resultin g fro m new industria l boiler s equa l t o
o r large r tha n10 0 millio nBtu/hou r hea t inpu t capacit y wer e examine din Surve y o f Ne w Industia l Boile r Project s 1981-1984 . Th e repor t conclude d tha t althoug hSOpemissio nrate s (i.e. , lb s SOp/millio nBt uo f hea t input ) fro m th e surveyed , new

coal - an

doil-fire dboiler s wer e 4 0 t o 5 0 percen t lowe r tha nfro

m existin g boiler s firin g th e same fuel , tota l annua l emission s fro

m th e surveye dplant s increase dfro m 103,83 8 ton s prio r t o installatio no f th e new boiler s t o 174,96 0 afterward--a nincreas e o f 6 8 percent . Thi s increas e resulte dfro m 1 ) installatio no f additiona l boile r capacit y a t ne w an dexistin g plants , 2 ) increase s i nth e us e o f coa l relativ e t o natura l gas , an d3 ) continue doperatio no f many existin g boiler s (althoughfrequentl y

a t reduce dload ) afte r th e ne w boiler s wer e installed . Thi s memorandum

use s th e dat a containe di nSectio n5 an d6 o f th e repor t t o estimat e reduction s i nSO , emission s tha t migh t hav e occurre di f a 2 9 0 percen t SO - reductio nstandard , simila r t o tha t propose di nJun e 1986 , hadbee ni nplace . Thi s standar dwa s modele db y assumin g anaverag e S0 ? emissio nrat e o f 0. 2 lbs/millio nBt ufo r coa l an d0. 1 lbs/millio nBt ufo r oil . Thes e rate s wer e base donrecen t mode l boile r cos t studie s tha t found th e leas t cos t optio n(includin g bot hfue l an dscrubbin g costs ) fo r complianc e wit ha 9 0 percen t standar dwa s t o us e a coa l wit ha controlle d SO - emissio nrat e betwee n0.0 7 lbs/millio nBt u(i nRegio nVIII ) t o 0.2 2 (i n Region s II I an

dV ) an danoi l wit ha controlle demissio nrat e o f roughl y 3 0.0 7 lbs/millio nBtu . Th e emissio nrate s o f 0. 2 an d0. 1 use dfo r modelin g therefor e giv e a conservativ e estimat e o f potentia l emissio nreductions .

Progres s Center/320 0 E

. Chape l Hil l Rd./Nelso n Hwy./P.O

. Bo x13000/Researc h Triangl e Park

. N.C

. 27709/(919)541-910 0P. 3

Becaus e a 9 0 percen t reductio n standar d ma yhav e cause d change s i n th e fue l choice , size , o r overal l desig n o f th e ne wboiler , o r cancellatio n o f th e entir e project , th e magnitud e o f th e projecte d emissio n change s o n an
annua l tonnag e basi s i s probabl yoverstated

. In an effor t t o accoun t fo r thi s overestimation , th e memorandumexamine s change s i n estimate d SO

emission s resultin g fro mdeletio n o f "discretionary " project s (define d a s project s undertake n fo r th e primar ypurpos e o f fue l switchin g and cogeneration)

. Thes e project s wer e determine d b yth e abov e reference d
surve yo f ne wboiler s t o b e th e mos t sensitiv e t o projec t economic s and , therefore , th e mos t likel yt o b e affecte d b yan SO

- reductio n standard

.

2. 0 RESULT S Al l Project s Annua l SO

- emission s fro mal l o f th e surveye d boile r project s tha t containe d a t leas t on e boile r o f 10 0 millio n Btu/hou r hea t inpu t capacit y
o r large r ar e shown i n Tabl e 1

. Emissio n rate s and annua l emission s unde r th e existin g standard s (i.e. , actua l emission s fro mth e surveye d boilers )
ar e shown i n th e to p hal f o f th e table ; thes e dat a wer e take n directl yfro m Table s 9 an d 1 0 o f Referenc e 1

. Th e quantit yo f fue l use d i n billio n Bt u pe r yea r (MMMBtu/year ) wa s "bac k calculated " base d o n th e emissio n rat e and
annua l emissio n data

. A s discusse d earlier , th e surve ydat a indicat e tha t installatio n o f th e
ne wboiler s increase d tota l annua l SO

- emission s fro mthes e plant s b y71,12 2 ton s (6 8 percent ) relativ e t o th e leve l o f emission s prio r t o thei r instal

lation

. B ycomparison , a 9 0 percen t reductio n standar d woul d hav e reduce d
annua l SO

- emission s by40,43 2 ton s (3 9 percent ) relativ e t o thei r origina l leve l (assumin g non e o f th e ne wboile r project s woul d hav e bee n altere d o r cancelle d a s discusse d above)

. Th e ne t decreas e i n annua l emission s betwee n th e actua l level s and thos e projecte d fo r a 9 0 percen t reductio n standar d i s 111,55 4 tons
. Exclusio n o f Fue l Switchin g Project s Becaus e o f change s i n th e relativ e price s o f coal , oil , and natura l ga s sinc e th e tim e perio d covere d b yth e surve y(i.e. , 1981-1984) , fewe r ne w boiler s ar e likel yt o b e constructe d i n th e futur e fo r th e purpos e o fP. 4

switchin g fro

m oi l o r natura l ga s t o coa l thandurin g th e survey period . Tabl e 2 summarize s projecte demission s i f al l th e new boiler s constructe d fo r th e primar y

purpos e o f fue l switchin g ar e exclude dfro m th e analysis . I t wa s assume dtha t th e emissio nrate s fo r thes e boiler s ar e simila r t o th e rate s fo r al l th e boiler s surveyed ; a s a result , th e baselin e emissio nrate s
ar e th e sam

e a s fo r al l th e boilers . Eliminatio no f fue l switchin g project s reduce s tota l annua l emission s fro m existing boiler s prio r t o installatio no f new boiler s t o 73,80 1 tons . Unde r th e existin g standards , installin g th e new boiler s resulte dina n emission s increas e o f 27,26 2 ton s pe r yea r (3 7 percent) . A 9 0 percen t standar dwoul dhav e lowere dannua l emission s b y 21,93 7 ton s (3 0 percent ) relativ e t o thos e prio r t o th e new boilers . Th e ne t decreas e 1 nannua l emission s fro

m th e new

boile r project s resultin g fro m th e 9 0 percen t reductio nstandar di s 49,19 9 tons . Exclusio no f Fue l Switchin g an dCogeneratio nProject s Althoug hles s cos t sensitiv e tha nproject s installe dfo r th e primar y purpos e o f fue l switching , installatio no f cogeneratio nboiler s ma y als o be reduce db

y curren t energ y

price s an

dutilit y

regulator y

policie s whic hmak e cogeneratio nles s economicall y attractiv e tha ndurin g th e surve y period . Tabl e 3 summarize s th e emissio nchange s i f bot hfue l switchin g an d cogeneratio nproject s ar e exclude dfro m th e analysis . Eliminatin g thes e boiler s decrease s tota l emission s fro m existin g boiler s t o 70,74 8 ton s pe r year . Base donth e surve y data , th e emission s increas e fro

m new boile r installation s wa s 12,51 9 ton s pe r yea r (1 8 percent) . A

9 0 percen t standar dwoul dhav e reduce dannua l emission s b y
a nestimate d23,07 4 ton s (3 3 percent ) relativ e t o th e leve l prio r t o instal latio no f th e new

boilers . Th e ne t decreas e inannua l emission s fro m th e
new boile r project s resultin g fro m th e 9 0 percen t reductio nstandar di s 35,59 3 tons .

3. 0 CONCLUSION S Whil e thi s analysi s i s no t intende da s a precis e forecas t o f futur e SO - emissions , i t doe s provid e insigh t int o th e relativ e impac t o f a 9 0 percen t reductio nstandard . Dependin g o nwhethe r fue l switchin g an dP. 5

cogeneratio nboiler s ar e include dinth e analysis , actua l emission s fro m
new boile r project s installe dbetwee n198 1 an d198 4 increase db

y 1 8 t o 6 8 percent . Base donth e abov e analysis , annua l emission s resultin g fro m a 9 0 percen t reductio nstandar dwoul dhave bee n2 5 t o 3 1 percen t below th e origina l emission s total . Relativ e t o th e projecte dannua l emission s fro m
new project s unde r existin g regulator y programs , th e projecte demission s associate dwit hth e 9 0 percen t reductio nstandar dar e a nestimate d4 0 t o 5 9 percen t lower .

4. 0 REFERENCE S 1 . U.S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgency . Surve y o f New Industria l Boile r Project s 1981-1984 . Publicatio nNo . EPA-450/3-87-006 . Researc h Triangl e Park , NC 27711 . 2 . 5 1 Federa l Register . 22385 , Jun e 19 , 1986 . 3 . Memorandu

m fo r Martinez , J . A. , an dE . F . Aul , Radia nCorporation , t o Porter , F . L. , an

dW.H . Stevenson , EPA/OAQPS/ESED , Ma y 15 , 1987 . Assumption s an

dProcedure s Use dt o Generat e Mode l Industria l Boile r Cos t an dCos t Effectivenes s Estimates .< > -\

TABL E 1 . COMPARISON O F S0 2 EMISSION S FROM AL L PROJECT S

MMBtu/yea r Standar dBoile r Typ e Fue l Befor e Afte r l bS0 2 /MMBt u Befor e Afte r Ton s o f S0 2 Befor e Afte r Chang e Existin g Ne w Coa l 0 Oi l 0 Existin g Coa l 42,841

Oi l 42,14 4 Tota l 256,39 0 155,51 4 24,61 9 34,54 9 3,76 0 440,15 1 0.0 0

0.0 0 2.8 9 1.9 9 0.8 1 1.4 7

1.1 4 2.4 9 1.9 2 0.8 0 0

0 61,90 5 41,93 3 103,83 8 114.30 3

14,03 3 43,01 4 3,61 0 174,96 0 71,12 2

90 % Reductio nNe w

Existin g Tota l Coa l

Oi l Coa l Oi l 0

0 42,84 1 42,14 4 256,39 0 155,51 4

24,61 9 34,54 9 3,76 0 440,15 1 0.0 0

0.0 0 2.8 9 1.9 9 0.8 1 0.2 0

0.1 0 2.4 9 1.9 2 0.3 3 0

0 61,90 5 41,93 3 103,83 8 15,55 1

1,23 1 43,01 4 3,61 0 63,40 6 -40,43 2TABL E 2 . COMPARISON O F S0 2 EMISSION S EXCLUDINGFUE L SWITCHINGPROJECT S

MMBtu/yea r Standar dBoile r Typ e Fue l Befor e Afte r l bS0 2 /MMBt u Befor e Afte r Ton s o f S0 2 Befor e Afte r Chang e Existin g Ne w

Existin g Tota l Coa l

Oi l Coa l Oi l 0

0 42,841 11,95 6 182,22 5 72,77 1

5,74 9 34,54 9 1,33 9 254,24 7 0.0 0

0.0 0 2.8 9 1.9 9 0.8 1 1.4 7

1.1 4 2.4 9 1.9 2 0.8 0 0

0 61,90 5 11,89 6 73,80 1 53,48 7

3,27 7 43,01 4 1,28 5 101,06 3 27,26 2

90 % Reductio nNe w

Existin g Tota l Coa l

Oi l Coa l Oi l 0

0 42,841 11,95 6 182,22 5 72,77 1

5,74 9 34,54 9 1,33 9 254,24 7 0.0 0

0.0 0 2.8 9 1.9 9 0.8 1 0.2 0

0.1 0 2.4 9 1.9 2 0.4 4

cn 0 0 61,90 5 11,89 6 73,801 7,27 7

28 7 43,01 4 1,28 5 51,86 4 -21,93 7

^1* V *

TABL E 3 . COMPARISO N O F S0 2 EMISSION S EXCLUDINGFUE L SWITCHINGAN DCOGENERATION PROJECT S

MMBtu/yea r l bS0 2 /MMBt U Ton s o f SO . Standar dBoile r Typ e Fue l Befor e Afte r Befor e Afte r Befor e Afte r Chang e Existin g Ne w

Existin g Tota l Coa l 0

Oi l 0 Coa l 40,95 8 Oi l 11,62 1 174,68 6 51,38 4

5,70 0 32,90 5 1,33 8 209,47 7 0.0 0

0.0 0 2.8 9 1.9 9 0.8 1 1.4 7

1.1 4 2.4 9 1.9 2 0.8 0 0

0 59,18 5 11,56 3 70,74 8 37,76 7

3,24 9 40,96 7 1,28 4 83,26 7 12,51 9

90 % Reductio nNe w

Existin g Tota l Coa l 0

Oi l 0 Coa l 40,95 8 Oi l 11,62 1 174,68 6 51,38 4

5,70 0 32,90 5 1,33 8 209,47 7 0.0 0

0.0 0 2.8 9 1.9 9 0.8 1 0.2 0

0.1 0 2.4 9 1.9 2 0.4 8 0

0 59,18 5 11,56 3 70,74 8 5,13 8

28 5 40,96 7 1,28 4 47,67 4 -23,07 4

T l 0 0