Cost Effect

Manufacturing Sector (NAICS 3361)

Parameters 1.110 (2005 to 2010 dollars)

GDP Deflators 1.022 (2008 to 2010 dollars) Domestic content 0.66690608

1.045 (2007 to 2010 dollars)

Original Dollars 2005 2010 2010 2007

Dataset 2010 BLS ERM 2010 ASM, 

NAICS 3361

2010 ASM, 

NAICS 33611

2007 Econ 

Census, NAICS 

3361

Sectors Motor vehicle 

mfg

Motor vehicle 

mfg Light Duty Only Motor vehicle mfg

Labor Intensity, 

jobs/$1M, unadjusted 0.8550 0.6547 0.6093 0.6946

Labor Intensity, 

jobs/$1M (2010$), 

direct

0.7703 0.6547 0.6093 0.6648

Jobs/$1 million 

after domestic 

adjustment 0.513714148 0.436631777 0.40634935 0.443362365

Fleet Cost ($Million/year 10$)

2017 $ 2,435 953 810 754 732

2018 $ 4,848 1,825 1,551 1,444 1,402

2019 $ 6,818 2,469 2,098 1,953 1,896

2020 $ 8,858 3,085 2,622 2,441 2,370

2021 $ 12,400 4,154 3,531 3,286 3,191

2022 $ 18,323 5,905 5,019 4,671 4,535

2023 $ 23,734 7,357 6,253 5,819 5,651

2024 $ 29,101 8,677 7,375 6,863 6,664

2025 $ 31,678 9,085 7,722 7,186 6,978
Parts Sector (NAICS 3363)

2007 Original Dollars 2005 2010 2007

2007 Econ 

Census, NAICS 

33611

Dataset 2010 BLS ERM 2010 ASM, 

NAICS 3363

2007 Econ Census, 

NAICS 3363

Light Duty Only Sectors

Motor vehicle 

parts 

manufacturing

Motor vehicle 

parts 

manufacturing

Motor vehicle parts 

mfg

0.6293 Labor Intensity, 

jobs/$1M, unadjusted 2.9011 2.3094 2.8338

0.6022

Labor Intensity, 

jobs/$1M (2010$), 

direct

2.6136 2.3094 2.7120

0.401621656

Jobs/$1 million 

after domestic 

adjustment 1.743 1.540 1.809

 663 2017 3,247 2,869 3,004

 1,270 2018 6,222 5,498 5,757

 1,718 2019 8,422 7,442 7,792

 2,147 2020 10,532 9,306 9,744

 2,890 2021 14,190 12,538 13,128

 4,108 2022 20,181 17,832 18,671

 5,119 2023 25,160 22,231 23,277

 6,037 2024 29,692 26,235 27,469

 6,321 2025 31,108 27,487 28,780
Minimum Maximum Rounded Costs (Millions)Minimum Maximum

 663 3,247 2017 $ 2,435 700 3,200

 1,270 6,222 2018 $ 4,848 1,300 6,200

 1,718 8,422 2019 $ 6,818 1,700 8,400

 2,147 10,532 2020 $ 8,858 2,100 10,500

 2,890 14,190 2021 $ 12,400 2,900 14,200

 4,108 20,181 2022 $ 18,323 4,100 20,200

 5,119 25,160 2023 $ 23,734 5,100 25,200

 6,037 29,692 2024 $ 29,101 6,000 29,700

 6,321 31,108 2025 $ 31,678 6,300 31,100
U.S. Vehicle Sales: From UsaSa01.xls U.S. Vehicle Production by US Production/US Sales Manufacturer: From UsaPr05.xlsx

NOTE: Truck appears to be total trucks not just LD. For the following, I'm going to 

Cars Light Trucks MD/HD Trucks Total Trucks Car Truck

Year Total Total Total Total Total Total Year Car Total Truck Total

2010 5,635,433 5,919,085 217,702 6,136,787 2,731,105 5,011,988 2010 0.48463091 0.816712068 0.6577428

2009 5,400,890 5,000,792 199,686 5,200,478 2,195,588 3,513,843 2009 0.40652337 0.675676928 0.53855606

2008 6,769,107 6,425,634 298,424 6,724,058 3,731,241 4,940,900 2008 0.55121614 0.734809248 0.64270621

2007 7,562,334 8,526,888 371,093 8,897,981 3,867,268 6,885,042 2007 0.51138551 0.773775759 0.65322626

2006 7,761,592 8,742,808 544,581 9,287,389 4,311,696 6,948,581 2006 0.55551696 0.748173787 0.66046628

2005 7,659,983 9,287,771 496,575 9,784,346 4,265,872 7,680,781 2005 0.55690359 0.785007092 0.68484451

2004 7,482,555 9,384,365 431,653 9,816,018 4,165,925 7,794,429 2004 0.55675167 0.794052028 0.69140697

2003 7,555,551 9,083,502 328,389 9,411,891 4,453,369 7,633,659 2003 0.58941684 0.811065385 0.71236595

2002 8,042,255 8,774,113 322,284 9,096,397 4,957,377 7,322,205 2002 0.61641629 0.804956622 0.7164847

2001 8,352,000 8,770,369 350,009 9,120,378 4,808,019 6,616,670 2001 0.57567277 0.725481992 0.65387144

U.S. Vehicle Sales, 1931-2010. UsaSa01.xls, accessed July 25, 2011 at http://subscribers.wardsauto.com/refcenter/ , ©Copyright 2011, Ward's Automotive Group, a di

U.S. Vehicle Production by Manufacturer. UsaPr05.xls, accessed July 25, 2011 at http://subscribers.wardsauto.com/refcenter/ , ©Copyright 2011, Ward's Automotive G
or the following, I'm going to use total trucks for sales, for comparability.

Proportion of LT among all trucks

Average for Car & Truck Car Average (20XX-2011) Truck Average (20XX-2011)

0.6577428 0.484631 0.816712068 0.964525085

0.60126807 0.446407 0.752018322 0.961602376

0.6168572 0.486252 0.745611548 0.955618467

0.62829767 0.493745 0.754907211 0.958294696

0.63620302 0.508217 0.753181925 0.941363391

0.64597628 0.51736 0.759946674 0.949248013

0.65352425 0.523466 0.765941238 0.956025651

0.66176954 0.532392 0.772449213 0.965109137

0.66855373 0.542972 0.776426066 0.964570148

0.66690608 0.546753 0.770860026 0.961623411

1, Ward's Automotive Group, a division of Penton Media Inc. Redistribution prohibited.

yright 2011, Ward's Automotive Group, a division of Penton Media Inc. Redistribution prohibited.
Raw Data: BLS ERM realdomreq (real domestic employment requirements table for 1993-2010), http://www.bls.gov/emp/

Year Sector 81 Sector 83 Ln(Sec81) Ln(Sec83) 2005$ Sector

1993 1.638752 5.572813 0.493935 1.7179 81

1994 1.528742 5.233601 0.424445 1.6551 82

1995 1.582246 5.358023 0.458845 1.678595 83

1996 1.552821 5.299569 0.440073 1.667625

1997 1.368803 5.125182 0.313937 1.634166

1998 1.308802 4.930115 0.269112 1.595362

1999 1.17323 4.390526 0.159761 1.479449

2000 1.297179 4.626042 0.260192 1.531702

2001 1.377158 4.698553 0.320022 1.547255

2002 1.167713 3.985995 0.155047 1.382787

2003 1.111995 3.660185 0.106156 1.297514

2004 1.043225 3.548093 0.042317 1.26641

2005 0.998222 3.491036 -0.00178 1.250199

2006 0.955367 3.40116 -0.04566 1.224117

2007 0.916044 3.267324 -0.08769 1.183971

2008 0.973064 3.528846 -0.02731 1.260971

2009 0.889512 3.242646 -0.11708 1.17639

2010 0.855027 2.901118 -0.15662 1.065096

Sector 81 Semilog

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.969586

R Square 0.940098

Adjusted R Square 0.936354

Standard Error 0.053978

Observations 18

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 0.731617 0.731617 251.1025 3.35E-11

Residual 16 0.046618 0.002914

Total 17 0.778235

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%Upper 95.0%

Intercept 77.94398 4.908248 15.8802 3.24E-11 67.53896 88.34901 67.53896 88.34901

Year -0.03886 0.002452 -15.8462 3.35E-11 -0.04406 -0.03366 -0.04406 -0.03366

ProjectionsRaw Data Raw Data

Year Actual 81 Actual 83 Projected 81Projected 83

1993 1.638752 5.572813 1.644438 5.744127

1994 1.528742 5.233601 1.581762 5.528551

1995 1.582246 5.358023 1.521475 5.321065

1996 1.552821 5.299569 1.463485 5.121366

1997 1.368803 5.125182 1.407706 4.929162

1998 1.308802 4.930115 1.354053 4.744171

1999 1.17323 4.390526 1.302444 4.566123

2000 1.297179 4.626042 1.252803 4.394757 2

3

4

5

6

7
2001 1.377158 4.698553 1.205054 4.229822

2002 1.167713 3.985995 1.159124 4.071077

2003 1.111995 3.660185 1.114946 3.91829

2004 1.043225 3.548093 1.072451 3.771237

2005 0.998222 3.491036 1.031575 3.629703

2006 0.955367 3.40116 0.992258 3.493481

2007 0.916044 3.267324 0.954439 3.362371

2008 0.973064 3.528846 0.918061 3.236181

2009 0.889512 3.242646 0.883071 3.114728

2010 0.855027 2.901118 0.849413 2.997833

2011 0.817039 2.885324

2012 0.785898 2.777038

2013 0.755944 2.672816

2014 0.727132 2.572506

2015 0.699418 2.47596

2016 0.672761 2.383038

2017 0.647119 2.293603

2018 0.622455 2.207524

2019 0.598731 2.124676

2020 0.575911 2.044937

2021 0.553961 1.968191

2022 0.532847 1.894325

2023 0.512538 1.823231

2024 0.493003 1.754805

2025 0.474213 1.688948

0

1

1990 2000 2010
3-2010), http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_emp_requirements.htm

Definition NAICS

Motor vehicle manufacturing 3361

Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing 3362

Motor vehicle parts manufacturing 3363

Sector 83 Semilog

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R 0.969434

R Square 0.939802

Adjusted R Square 0.93604

Standard Error 0.053274

Observations 18

ANOVA

df SS MS F Significance F

Regression 1 0.708938 0.708938 249.7916 3.48E-11

Residual 16 0.04541 0.002838

Total 17 0.754347

Upper 95.0% CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 77.98493 4.844236 16.0985 2.64E-11 67.71561 88.25425 67.71561

Year -0.03825 0.00242 -15.8048 3.48E-11 -0.04338 -0.03312 -0.04338

Actual 81

Actual 83

Projected 81

Projected 83
2020 2030
Upper 95.0%

88.25425

-0.03312
Annual Survey of Manufacture

Sector 31: Annual Survey of Manufactures: General Statistics: Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries: 2009 and 2010

NOTE: For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, and definitions, see Survey Methodology. For information on the ASM industry gr

Geographic Area 

Name

NAICS-based 

code

Meaning of 

NAICS-based 

code Year

Number of 

employees

RSE of total 

number of 

employees (%)

Annual payroll 

($1,000)

Total fringe 

benefits ($1,000)

RSE of total fringe 

benefits (%)

Employer's 

cost for health 

insurance 

($1,000)

Employer's cost 

for defined 

benefit pension 

plans ($1,000)

Employer's cost for 

defined contribution 

plans ($1,000)

United States 3361 Motor vehicle mfg2010 135881 1 9205573 3678643 1 1586953 496741 170529

United States 3361 Motor vehicle mfg2009 123,484 1 7,927,052 3,636,428 1 1,515,594 354,190 177,974

United States 33611 Automobile and light duty 2010 motor vehicle manufacturing 113693 2 8046206 3147287 1 1316540 426319 147371

United States 33611 Automobile and light duty 2009 motor vehicle manufacturing 101,510 1 6,837,940 3,105,345 1 1,264,416 311,321 145,878

United States 336111 Automobile manufacturing 2010 60200 3 4007798 1498085 2 647851 170765 81183

United States 336111 Automobile manufacturing 2009 51,440 1 3,358,548 1,570,636 1 632,769 178,949 77,348

United States 336112 Light truck and utility 2010 vehicle m53493 anufacturing 1 4038408 1649202 1 668689 255554 66188

United States 336112 Light truck and utility 2009 vehicle m50,070 anufacturing 1 3,479,392 1,534,709 1 631,647 132,372 68,530

United States 3363 Motor vehicle parts mfg 2010 388657 1 19540845 6757660 1 2954429 514274 418825

United States 3363 Motor vehicle parts mfg 2009 403,660 1 18,547,126 6,672,876 1 3,019,262 305,418 365,131

Economic Census

Sector 31: Manufacturing: Summary Series: General Summary: Industry Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries: 2007

Data based on the 2007 Economic Census. For information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, and definitions, see Survey Methodology [pd

Geographic Area Name 2007 NAICS code Meaning of 2007 NAICS code Footnote identifier CompaniesNumber of establishments Number of employ Annual pay ees roll ($1,000) Production workers avg per y Production workers hours (1,000) Production workers, nonleased employ ear Value added ($1,000) ee

United States 3361 Motor vehicle manufacturing 313 379 179,362 13,355,573 154,822 303,402 11,448,694 72,653,434

United States 33611 Automobile and light duty motor vehicle manufacturing 235 278 150,242 12,001,554 131,438 262,655 10,513,020 68,533,107

United States 336111 Automobile manufacturing 174 188 65,436 5,110,050 56,447 113,980 4,449,862 21,378,103

United States 336112 Light truck and utility vehicle manufacturing 66 90 84,806 6,891,504 74,991 148,675 6,063,158 47,155,004

United States 3363 Motor vehicle parts manufacturing 4,659 5,742 584,440 28,209,409 444,761 905,666 19,525,053 74,666,400
n on the ASM industry groupings, see Comparability. Data in this table represent those available when this report was created. Data may not be available for all NAICS industries or g

Employer's cost 

for other fringe 

benefits ($1,000)

Production 

workers avg per 

year

Production 

workers hours 

(1,000)

Production 

workers 

wages 

($1,000)

Total cost of 

materials ($1,000)

RSE of total cost 

of materials (%)

Materials, parts, 

containers, 

packaging, etc. used 

($1,000)

Cost of resales 

($1,000)

Contract work 

($1,000)

Cost of 

purchased 

fuels ($1,000)

RSE of cost of 

purchased 

fuels (%)

1424420 113863 222631 7446195 140558251 2 138556089 1031539 215483 320649 1

1,588,670 103,349 196,432 6,391,521 107,559,844 1 105,144,792 1,468,670 226,246 305,835 1

1257056 97296 192716 6680733 124901603 3 123424959 756337 41479 287740 1

1,383,731 86,354 166,267 5,668,217 95,142,174 1 93,481,860 941,052 61,590 280,563 1

598285 49854 97095 3187844 53463714 6 52385002 735115 16403 122837 1

681,571 43,762 87,623 2,755,570 40,279,888 2 39,022,861 921,782 31,690 122,466 1

658771 47442 95621 3492889 71437889 1 71039957 21222 25076 164903 1

702,160 42,592 78,644 2,912,647 54,862,286 1 54,458,999 19,270 29,900 158,097 1

2870132 292977 593493 12973468 101882672 1 93921418 4694275 1464655 405452 2

2,983,064 296,913 576,771 ######## 78,048,502 1 71,464,512 3,817,727 1,145,192 394,337 2

Survey Methodology [pdf]. Data in this file represent those available when this file was created; data may not be available for all NAICS industries or geographies. Data in this table m

Total cost of materials ($1,000) Total value of shipments ($1,000) Total capital expenditures (new and used) ($1,000)

185,376,159 258,204,960 3,748,747

169,841,521 238,763,096 3,555,926

63,392,242 84,727,558 1,765,150

106,449,279 154,035,538 1,790,776

131,469,683 206,240,940 6,729,578
ailable for all NAICS industries or geographies. Detail items may not add to total due to independent rounding.

Quantity of 

electricity 

purchased 

(1,000 kWh)

Purchased 

electricity 

($1,000)

RSE of 

purchased 

electricity (%)

Quantity of 

generated 

electricity 

(1,000 kWh)

Quantity of 

electricity sold 

or transferred 

(1,000 kWh)

Total value of 

shipments 

($1,000)

RSE of total 

value of 

shipments (%)

Value of products 

shipments 

($1,000)

Value of 

interplant 

transfers ($1,000)

Total 

miscellaneous 

receipts 

($1,000)

Value of 

resales 

($1,000)

Contract 

receipts 

($1,000)

7902792 434492 1 D D 207542991 2 205775919 6510634 1767072 908777 260936

6,782,719 414,302 1 D D 149,900,446 1 147,913,213 D 1,987,233 1,630,077 D

7196501 391088 1 D D 186594498 2 185258041 D 1336457 D D

6,282,860 377,109 1 D D 134,129,035 1 132,723,764 D 1,405,271 1,053,139 D

3865907 204357 1 D S 74301507 5 73055012 D 1246495 D D

3,158,102 181,089 1 D D 53,724,061 2 52,406,195 D 1,317,866 D D

3330594 186731 1 D D 112292991 1 112203029 D 89962 D D

3,124,758 196,020 1 D D 80,404,974 1 80,317,569 D 87,405 D D

20994366 1396872 1 D D 168296739 1 161599474 18651671 6697265 5556278 197089

######## 1,226,734 1 D D 130,520,776 1 125,281,612 16,374,829 5,239,164 4,501,427 155,795

or geographies. Data in this table may be subject to employment- and/or sales-size minimums that vary by industry.
Other 

miscellaneous 

receipts 

($1,000)

Value added 

($1,000)

597359 67483831

D 41,968,097

587299 61836793

D 38,798,362

D 20763370

D 13,338,967

D 41073423

D 25,459,395

943898 67018745

581,941 51,569,867
Table 1.1.4. Price Indexes for Gross Domestic Product 

[Index numbers, 2005=100] 

Bureau of Economic Analysis

Downloaded on 8/25/2011 At 8:59:48 AM Last Revised July 29, 2011 . NOTE THAT THIS MATCHES THE TABLE PROVIDED BY T SHERWOOD 2/28/12

 Line 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

1 Gross domestic product 64.818 67.047 69.579 72.274 74.826 76.602 78.288 79.935 81.602 83.154 84.627
HERWOOD 2/28/12

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

85.58 86.84 88.724 90.731 92.192 94.134 96.784 100 103.237 106.231 108.565 109.732 111
v2.11.0 (20120711)

Calendar Year Analysis

CY Car Sales Truck Sales $/car $/truck $/vehicle Car Truck Vehicles

2012 8,775,828 5,918,561 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

2013 9,746,452 6,335,099 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

2014 9,785,439 6,087,635 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

2015 10,070,241 6,088,258 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

2016 10,140,463 6,054,713 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

2017 9,987,667 5,818,655 $206 $57 $154 $2,061 $334 $2,435

2018 9,905,364 5,671,046 $374 $196 $311 $3,700 $1,112 $4,848

2019 9,995,696 5,582,962 $510 $304 $438 $5,099 $1,696 $6,818

2020 10,291,562 5,604,377 $634 $415 $557 $6,530 $2,323 $8,858

2021 10,505,165 5,683,902 $767 $763 $766 $8,061 $4,338 $12,400

2022 10,735,777 5,703,996 $1,079 $1,186 $1,115 $11,587 $6,764 $18,323

2023 10,968,003 5,687,486 $1,357 $1,562 $1,425 $14,889 $8,881 $23,734

2024 11,258,138 5,675,949 $1,622 $1,914 $1,718 $18,261 $10,861 $29,101

2025 11,541,560 5,708,899 $1,726 $2,059 $1,836 $19,921 $11,757 $31,678

2026 11,769,401 5,738,877 $1,710 $2,044 $1,820 $20,129 $11,729 $31,858

2027 11,924,679 5,831,703 $1,710 $2,044 $1,820 $20,395 $11,919 $32,314

2028 12,145,791 5,890,166 $1,710 $2,044 $1,819 $20,773 $12,038 $32,811

2029 12,328,967 5,889,501 $1,710 $2,044 $1,818 $21,086 $12,037 $33,123

2030 12,535,870 5,986,092 $1,710 $2,044 $1,818 $21,440 $12,234 $33,674

2031 12,696,592 6,037,145 $1,710 $2,044 $1,818 $21,715 $12,339 $34,054

2032 12,824,800 6,058,174 $1,710 $2,044 $1,817 $21,934 $12,382 $34,316

2033 12,952,075 6,079,180 $1,710 $2,044 $1,817 $22,152 $12,425 $34,577

2034 13,106,966 6,113,440 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $22,417 $12,495 $34,911

2035 13,306,338 6,140,326 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $22,758 $12,550 $35,307

2036 13,460,858 6,211,631 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $23,022 $12,695 $35,717

2037 13,617,173 6,283,763 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $23,289 $12,843 $36,132

2038 13,775,303 6,356,734 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $23,560 $12,992 $36,552

2039 13,935,269 6,430,551 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $23,833 $13,143 $36,976

2040 14,097,092 6,505,226 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $24,110 $13,295 $37,406

2041 14,260,795 6,580,769 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $24,390 $13,450 $37,840

2042 14,426,399 6,657,188 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $24,673 $13,606 $38,279

Millions of 2010 dollars

Annual Costs
2043 14,593,926 6,734,495 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $24,960 $13,764 $38,724

2044 14,763,398 6,812,699 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $25,250 $13,924 $39,174

2045 14,934,839 6,891,812 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $25,543 $14,085 $39,629

2046 15,108,270 6,971,843 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $25,840 $14,249 $40,089

2047 15,283,715 7,052,804 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $26,140 $14,415 $40,554

2048 15,461,198 7,134,705 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $26,443 $14,582 $41,025

2049 15,640,741 7,217,557 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $26,750 $14,751 $41,502

2050 15,822,370 7,301,371 $1,710 $2,044 $1,816 $27,061 $14,923 $41,984

Total $679,771 $376,932 $1,056,723

NPV, 3% $335,714 $185,744 $521,483

NPV, 7% $149,058 $81,893 $230,980