What do the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) spreadsheets do?

The LCC spreadsheets perform calculations to determine life-cycle cost and payback periods. The LCC spreadsheets operate in Excel 97 or Excel 7 (Windows 95). The Excel add-on Crystal Ball (version 4.0) allows the user to p

What are the Worksheets in the Workbook?

Each LCC spreadsheet or workbook consists of the following worksheets:LCC (Sample Calc) contains the input selections and a summary table of energy use, operating costs, LCC and Payback.LCC (Simulations) contains the input selections as in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet. If Crystal Ball is running, the energy, cost, LCC, and payback data are from the current sample. If Crystal Ball has finished runningEngineering contains the manufacturer costs submitted by ARI for split systems and single package systems at each efficiency level. Also included are the manufacturer, distributor, and dealer markups, the saleRECS HH Data for each sample household, contains average and marginal electricity prices, annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps), the geographic locat

COMM Data for each sample building, contains average and marginal electricity prices, and annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps).Energy Price contains projections of future energy prices from various sources.SEER Dist contains historical shipment-weighted efficiency data by year; this is used for determining the probable SEER of existing space-conditioning equipment based on age.Seasonal Allocation Factors contains seasonal (i.e., summer and non-summer) allocation factors of annual cooling (or heating) energy which indicate the fraction used by season. The seasonal allocation factors are based on the 

are used for determining the annual marginal electricity rate. Summer and non-summer allocation factors are multiplied by summer and non-summer marginal rates, respectively, and then summed 

drate dist contains data from which an average discount rate and a distribution of discount rates are determined.Lifetime contains the survival function for central air conditioners and heat pumps and the average central air conditioner and heat pump lifetime in years.Setup this is used as an interface between user inputs and the rest of the worksheets -- do not modify this sheet.

How does the user operate the spreadsheet?

To execute the spreadsheets fully you will need both Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball software. Both applications are commercially available. Crystal ball is available at http://www.decisioneering.com.

1) Once you have downloaded the LCC file from the Web, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for sheet LCC (Sample Calc) or LCC (Simulations). 

2) Use Excel’s commands at the top View/Zoom to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.3) The user interacts with the spreadsheet by clicking choices or entering data using the graphical interface that comes with the spreadsheet. Choices can be selected from the box labeled List Inputs o

a) LCC (Sample Calc) or,

b) LCC (Simulations).

A change in either input sheet also changes the other. In the box titled List Inputs select choices from the selection boxes for the following: (1) energy price projection, (2) start year, (3) base case (6) system type (split or single package). A new discount rate or lifetime can also be entered if a value other than the default value or default distribution is wanted, however, this would change the ccode is changed.

a) energy price projection,

b) start year,

c) base case design, 

d) standard case design, 

e) system type (split or single package) (this choice appears just outside of the List Inputs box),

f) price multipler (either ARI Mean manufacuturer cost multipliers or Reverse Engineering manufacturer cost multipliers),

g) markups (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer, distributor, dealer, and builder markups and sales tax), and

h) price multiplier (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer cost multiplier).

4) To change assumptions on List Inputs click on the assumption you wish to change, click on the new assumption from the menu. 5) This spreadsheet gives the user two methods of running the spreadsheet. 

a) If the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet is chosen, then all calculations are performed for single input values, usually an average. The new results are shown on the same sheet as soon as the ne

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
b) Alternately, if the LCC (Simulations) sheet is used, the spreadsheet generates results that are distributions. Some of the inputs are also distributions. The results from the LCC distributi

last Monte Carlo sample and are therefore not meaningful. To run the distribution version of the spreadsheet the Excel add-in software called Crystal Ball must be enabled.

What is the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet used for? 

LCC difference and Payback as provided in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet are based on single-point values. This page can be used to see the effect of changing a single parameter. 

How does the user run the Crystal Ball simulation? (LCC Simulations sheet)

To produce sensitivity results using Crystal Ball, you need simply select Run from the Run menu (on the menu bar). To make basic changes in the run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from 

select Reset (also from the Run menu) before Run can be selected again. Once Crystal Ball has completed its run sequence it will produce a series of distributions. Using the menu bars on the distribution results it is possible to oba run sequence can be reduced by minimizing the Crystal Ball window in Excel. A step by step summary of the procedure, for running a distribution analysis, is outlined below:

1) Find the Crystal Ball toolbar (at top of screen)2) Click on RUN3) Select Preference and choose from the following choices:

a) Monte Carlo

b) Latin Hypercube (recommended)

c) Initial seed choices and whether you want it to be constant between runs

d) Select number of Monte Carlo Trials (we suggest 10,000).

4) To run the simulation, follow the following sequence (on the Crystal Ball toolbar)

RUNRESETRUN

5) Now wait until the program informs you that the simulation is completed.

What kind of output does Crystal Ball generate?

1) After the simulation has finished, to see the distribution charts generated, click on the Windows tab bar that is labeled Crystal Ball.2) The life-cycle cost savings and payback periods are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations, or trials, performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to b

of the forecasts. The View selection on the Crystal Ball toolbar can be used to specify whether you want cumulative or frequency plots shown.

3) To calculate the probability of that LCC savings will occur, either type 0 in the box by the right arrow, or move the arrow key with the cursor to 0 on the scale. The value in the Certainty box shows 

certainty of payback period being below a certain number of years, choose that value as the high endpoint.

4) To generate a printout report, select Create Report from the Run menu. The toolbar choice of Forecast Windows allows you to select the charts and statistics you are interested in. For further inform

the Forecast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual.

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
LIFE CYCLE COST OF PACKAGED SYSTEM CENTRAL A/C - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVG VALUES), January 2001

 Dollar Values in 1998 $ Elec Price (c

LIST INPUTS Age Year Average M

ELECTRICITY PRICE (cent/kWh) Average Marginal 1998 8.81 

ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase 2006 8.19 7.96 

Year Equip. Retires 2023 7.97 7.75 1 2006 8.19 

2 2007 8.19 

BASE CASE DESIGN 3 2008 8.16 

 PRICE OPTION SEER 10 CHANGE SEER 13 4 2009 8.06 

5 2010 8.09 

STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price $2,607 $425 16% $3,032 6 2011 8.02 

Annual Repair & Maint. $70 $1 1% $71 7 2012 7.99 

Compressor Repl. Cost $278 $82 29% $360 8 2013 7.98 

LIFETIME (years) 18.4 9 2014 8.01 DISCOUNT RATE 5.6% Annual kWh Use 2305 -532 -23% 1773 Payback 10 2015 8.03 

Annual Operating Cost (years) 11 2016 8.01 

ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 1998 (cent/kWh) 2006 $259 -$41 -16% $217 10.3 12 2017 8.01 

Average 8.81 13 2018 8.01 Marginal 8.57 Cumulative Cash Flow $7,584 -$240 -3% $7,344 14 2019 7.98 

Life-Cycle Cost ($) $5,629 $3 0% $5,632 15 2020 7.97 

AVERAGE UEC (kWh) 2501 16 2021 7.97 

AVERAGE SEER 9.2 17 2022 7.97 

 18 2023 7.97  19 2024 7.97 

20 2025 7.97 21 2026 7.97 22 2027 7.97 23 2028 7.97 24 2029 7.97 25 2030 7.97 

AEO 2000 - Reference Case 2006

Baseline (SEER=10)30% Impr. (SEER=13)

Fuel Price 

Comparion

Show Plot

Show Inputs

Price 

Multiplier

Mark Up's

Packaged System

Rev Engr

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
LIFE CYCLE COST OF PACKAGED SYSTEM CENTRAL A/C - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVG VALUES), January 2000

 Dollar Values in 1998 $ E

LIST INPUTS Age Year A

ELECTRICITY PRICE (cent/kWh) Average Marginal 1998 

ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase 2006 7.08 6.26 

Year Equip. Retires 2023 6.89 6.09 1 2006 

2 2007 

BASE CASE DESIGN PRICE OPTION 3 2008 

SEER 10 CHANGE SEER 13 4 2009 

5 2010 

STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price $2,607 $425 16% $3,032 6 2011 

Annual Repair & Maint. $70 $1 1% $71 7 2012 Compressor Repl. Cost $278 $82 29% $360 8 2013 

9 2014 

Annual kWh Use 806 -186 -23% 620 Payback 10 2015 

LIFETIME (years) 18.4 % SHIPMENT Annual Operating Cost (years) 11 2016 DISCOUNT RATE 4.2% Comm. 10% 2006 $127 -$11 -8% $117 40.0 12 2017 

 Resd. 90% 13 2018 

HOUSEHOLD ELEC PRICE IN 1998 Cumulative Cash Flow $5,207 $315 6% $5,522 14 2019 

(cent/kWh) Average 7.62 Life-Cycle Cost ($) $4,365 $339 8% $4,704 15 2020 

Marginal 6.73 16 2021 

17 2022 

HOUSEHOLD UEC (kWh) 965 18 2023 HOUSEHOLD SEER 8.4 19 2024 

20 2025 21 2026 22 2027 23 2028 24 2029 25 2030 

AEO 2000 - Reference Case 2006

Baseline (SEER=10)20% Impr. (SEER=12)

Fuel Price 

Comparion

Show Plot

Show Inputs

Update

Price 

Multiplier

Mark Up's

Split System

Rev Engr

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
PACKAGED SYSTEM CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS: COST AND EFFICIENCY DATA - Reverse Engineering

Total Total

% Over Manufacturer's Cost Multiplier Manuf. Equip. Install. Installed Annual Annual Compr. 

Level Description Baseline ARI mean Reverse Engr Cost Price Price Price Repair Maint. SEER Mfg. Cost 

SEER Split Packaged Split Packaged (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (Btu/Whr) (1998$) 

0 Baseline (SEER=10) 0% 100% 100% 100% 100% $511 $1,240 $1,367 $2,607 $34 $36 10 $122 1 10% Impr. (SEER=11) 10% 116% 119% 112% 109% $557 $1,329 $1,367 $2,696 $34 $36 11 $152 2 20% Impr. (SEER=12) 20% 136% 130% 128% 116% $593 $1,398 $1,367 $2,765 $34 $36 12 $153 3 30% Impr. (SEER=13) 30% 163% 163% 144% 143% $731 $1,665 $1,367 $3,032 $35 $36 13 $167 4 40% Impr. (SEER=14) 40% 203% 187% 182% 174% $889 $1,971 $1,367 $3,338 $54 $36 14 $167 5 50% Impr. (SEER=15) 50% 240% 223% 199% 187% $956 $2,099 $1,367 $3,466 $57 $36 15 $221 6 80% Impr. (SEER=18) 80% 240% 223% 199% 187% $956 $2,099 $1,367 $3,466 $57 $36 18 $221 

Split Packaged

Baseline Mfg Cost $394 $511

Installation Price $1,279 $1,367

Distributior Markup 

Marginal Markups Cumulative 

New Retrofit Wt.Avg / Baseline Markup Probability 

34% 66% Sampled Markup 1.027 1% 

Manufacturer Markup 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.056 10% 

Distributor Markup 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.37 1.069 20% 

Dealer Markup 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.077 30% 

Builder Markup 1.26 1.00 1.09 1.09 Sales Tax Distribution for Retrofit 1.084 40% 

10% 30% 38% 22% 1.091 50% 

Sales Tax 1.00 1.07 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.098 60% 

1.105 70% 

Service Cost $36 1.114 80% 

1.126 90% 

New/Retrofit Group 1 1=New, 2=Retrofit 1.155 99% 

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
RECS HH Data

HOUSEHOLD DATA FROM 1993 RECS

House ID Sampled 1 Adjusted RECS97 CDD CDD 93 Avg 93 Marginal Rate Large Year Alloc. Yr. Made 93 Marg 

House ID Weight UEC UEC 65 65-30 ElecRate Summer Winter Division State Made Group Group ElecRate 

HOUSE ID 1 (1000Btu) (1000Btu) cent/kWh in 93$/kWh cent/kWh

HOUSEHOLD INFORMATION 1 8712 3292 1717 603 1156 7.8 $0.068 $0.072 4 0 5 4 2 6.9 

 Equip Age Index 4 2 21990 4097 3197 572 733 7.4 $0.059 $0.062 3 0 5 3 2 5.9  Equip. Age 14 3 28529 12058 8111 1792 2664 6.6 $0.063 $0.058 7 3 4 8 2 6.2 

4 16659 11667 8038 505 733 7.5 $0.072 $0.069 3 0 6 3 2 7.1 

 SEER 8.36 5 9874 6748 5291 1402 1788 6.2 $0.068 $0.046 6 0 10 7 4 6.4  UEC 965 kWh/yr Age Avg. Age 6 26445 14990 17628 862 733 7.0 $0.083 $0.044 3 0 1 3 1 7.9 

Index Age Dist. 7 17593 13019 10328 2522 3179 8.4 $0.080 $0.084 5 4 8 6 3 8.2 

 Avg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 7.77 cents/kWh 1 11 8 17657 1413 773 704 1287 12.3 $0.134 $0.128 9 2 5 12 2 13.2 

 Marg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 6.86 cents/kWh 2 33 9 18325 1701 1409 607 733 6.9 $0.063 $0.061 3 0 1 3 1 6.2 

3 77 10 12952 1355 1706 923 733 7.7 $0.077 $0.073 3 0 2 3 1 7.7 

 Avg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.62 cents/kWh 4 14 14 11 6781 3883 1720 512 1156 7.1 $0.066 $0.067 4 0 1 4 1 6.6 

 Marg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 6.73 cents/kWh 5 20 20 12 26834 17663 5717 335 1035 6.5 $0.061 $0.062 2 0 1 2 1 6.1 

96 10 10 13 19833 5782 3463 439 733 6.5 $0.061 $0.056 3 0 1 3 1 6.0 

 Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $367 7 10 10 14 52122 12347 9625 1722 2209 6.9 $0.054 $0.058 7 0 7 9 3 5.5 

8 10 10 15 13353 7200 910 328 2595 6.7 $0.057 $0.055 8 0 1 10 1 5.6 

RECS House ID 1004 99 10 10 16 17237 9731 3648 388 1035 6.7 $0.062 $0.063 2 0 7 2 3 6.2 

RECS Weight 8712 17 21987 2960 3822 1662 1287 12.3 $0.136 $0.138 9 2 8 12 3 13.7 

RECS UEC 3292 18 18279 8655 3720 1145 2664 6.8 $0.068 $0.064 7 3 4 8 2 6.7 

19 35673 8024 6702 1845 2209 9.8 $0.082 $0.094 7 0 7 9 3 8.5 20 11832 744 864 682 587 9.6 $0.088 $0.085 1 0 6 1 2 8.7 

Conversion from 1997$ to 1998$ 0.98 21 13398 8591 15398 4651 2595 11.5 $0.095 $0.094 8 0 8 10 3 9.5 

22 13591 5036 3075 632 1035 8.7 $0.075 $0.079 2 0 8 2 3 7.5 

Wt.Avg. Average Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 9.07 cents/kWh 23 20342 1904 1797 1091 1156 8.8 $0.070 $0.071 4 0 4 4 2 7.0 

Wt.Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 8.79 cents/kWh 24 5714 3371 2415 1281 1788 6.7 $0.066 $0.059 6 0 5 7 2 6.5 Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 8.90 cents/kWh 25 16987 8064 5666 515 733 7.3 $0.062 $0.065 3 0 8 3 3 6.3 Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 8.62 cents/kWh 26 12055 5427 6450 1374 1156 7.0 $0.088 $0.043 4 0 1 4 1 8.1 

27 23139 5269 3170 441 733 6.4 $0.058 $0.059 3 0 8 3 3 5.8 

Wt. Avg. Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $388.1 28 13447 8063 6264 1389 1788 6.6 $0.062 $0.058 6 0 6 7 2 6.1 

29 10285 55568 34808 1120 1788 5.7 $0.048 $0.053 6 0 12 7 4 4.9 

1997 RECS 30 10985 3756 1758 541 1156 7.6 $0.084 $0.068 4 0 1 4 1 8.1 

 HH Average UEC 2132 kWh/yr 31 12782 8771 9159 2782 2664 7.6 $0.068 $0.088 7 3 4 8 2 7.1  HH Average SEER 9.13 32 17321 11198 8504 1187 1563 8.2 $0.116 $0.062 5 0 13 5 4 11.0 

33 11411 11378 7363 1724 2664 6.1 $0.067 $0.038 7 3 3 8 2 6.3 34 14991 3023 2734 663 733 7.9 $0.084 $0.060 3 0 7 3 3 8.2 35 74274 1951 848 366 842 16.5 $0.126 $0.126 2 1 9 2 4 12.6 36 16010 3501 5174 1902 1287 13.2 $0.154 $0.134 9 2 4 12 2 14.7 37 17001 1505 655 319 733 6.6 $0.067 $0.064 3 0 7 3 3 6.7 38 38338 3400 2365 720 1035 12.7 $0.134 $0.118 2 0 7 2 3 13.3 39 26430 11814 2422 532 2595 5.0 $0.047 $0.049 8 0 15 10 4 4.8 40 20548 13765 11933 1915 2209 9.3 $0.095 $0.088 7 0 6 9 2 9.3 41 11622 17549 11974 1220 1788 5.0 $0.078 $0.040 6 0 5 7 2 7.2 42 19833 4699 2686 419 733 9.1 $0.100 $0.086 3 0 2 3 1 9.9 43 28108 1499 1841 900 733 6.4 $0.078 $0.046 3 0 5 3 2 7.5 44 79333 8803 9908 825 733 7.3 $0.051 $0.050 3 0 10 3 4 5.1 

HELP HELP

Page 1

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
COMMERCIAL BUILDING DATA

Building ID Sampled 1 98 Avg 98 Marg Baseline

Building ID Weight UEC ElecRate ElecRate SEER Mfg Cost

(1000Btu) cent/kWh cent/kWh

Building ID 1 1 0.37% 3814 7.89 7.97 10.00 $449

BUILDING INFORMATION 2 0.79% 2782 7.84 8.45 10.00 $449

SEER 10.00 3 0.07% 5488 7.95 7.85 10.00 $449

UEC 3814 kWh/yr 4 0.33% 4356 7.94 7.97 10.00 $449

5 1.02% 4026 8.01 8.13 10.00 $449

Avg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.89 cents/kWh 6 1.50% 4461 7.90 7.96 10.00 $449

Marg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.97 cents/kWh 7 0.50% 3653 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

8 1.01% 3814 7.89 7.97 10.00 $449

Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $449 9 1.79% 2782 7.84 8.45 10.00 $449

10 0.23% 5488 7.95 7.85 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $449.0 11 0.28% 4356 7.94 7.97 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. SEER 10.0 12 2.99% 4026 8.01 8.13 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. UEC (kWh/yr) 5,824 13 3.66% 4461 7.90 7.96 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 7.9 14 1.84% 3653 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 8.1 15 1.34% 3541 7.90 8.02 10.00 $449

16 2.01% 2435 7.92 8.28 10.00 $449

17 0.86% 5119 7.95 7.89 10.00 $449

18 0.96% 3982 7.95 8.01 10.00 $449

19 3.05% 3747 8.01 8.11 10.00 $449

20 3.85% 4129 7.91 8.00 10.00 $449

21 2.92% 3336 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

22 0.77% 3673 7.97 8.10 10.00 $449

23 1.07% 2552 7.92 8.56 10.00 $449

24 0.12% 5196 7.95 7.88 10.00 $449

25 0.39% 4091 7.95 8.02 10.00 $449

26 1.52% 3805 8.01 8.12 10.00 $449

27 2.27% 4058 7.91 7.94 10.00 $449

28 0.64% 3497 8.03 8.03 10.00 $449

29 1.64% 8202 7.88 8.06 10.00 $449

30 2.37% 5470 7.88 8.48 10.00 $449

31 0.58% 10514 7.92 7.81 10.00 $449

32 1.40% 8984 7.91 7.95 10.00 $449

33 4.53% 7499 7.99 8.05 10.00 $449

34 5.49% 8497 7.88 7.91 10.00 $449

35 2.50% 6458 8.02 8.02 10.00 $449

36 1.06% 6862 7.89 8.14 10.00 $449

37 0.80% 4610 7.90 8.60 10.00 $449

38 0.30% 9116 7.93 7.84 10.00 $449

39 0.66% 7575 7.92 8.03 10.00 $449

40 1.21% 6521 8.00 8.08 10.00 $449

41 3.12% 7437 7.89 7.94 10.00 $449

42 1.53% 5690 8.02 8.02 10.00 $449

43 1.27% 8054 7.89 8.23 10.00 $449

44 2.32% 5379 7.90 8.89 10.00 $449

45 0.49% 10343 7.92 7.88 10.00 $449

46 0.52% 8896 7.91 8.05 10.00 $449

47 2.20% 7395 7.99 8.11 10.00 $449

48 3.48% 8426 7.89 7.95 10.00 $449

49 1.27% 6262 8.02 8.04 10.00 $449

50 0.68% 4294 7.97 8.12 10.00 $449

51 0.25% 2985 8.09 8.36 10.00 $449

52 0.15% 6355 7.95 7.86 10.00 $449

53 0.34% 5163 7.95 8.01 10.00 $449

54 1.60% 4850 8.02 8.19 10.00 $449

55 0.92% 5107 7.98 8.02 10.00 $449

56 0.24% 4665 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449

57 0.78% 10262 7.84 7.92 10.00 $449

58 0.44% 7203 7.81 8.15 10.00 $449

59 0.07% 12571 7.89 7.72 10.00 $449

60 0.27% 11656 7.88 7.84 10.00 $449

61 0.82% 9368 7.96 7.95 10.00 $449

62 0.57% 10452 7.86 7.83 10.00 $449

63 0.54% 9140 7.92 7.92 10.00 $449

64 0.21% 3035 7.98 8.13 10.00 $449

65 0.10% 2067 8.10 8.41 10.00 $449

66 0.12% 5379 7.96 7.86 10.00 $449

67 0.11% 3545 7.96 8.09 10.00 $449

68 0.82% 3934 8.02 8.11 10.00 $449

69 0.63% 4586 7.99 8.11 10.00 $449

70 0.12% 4297 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

71 1.94% 6192 7.97 8.21 10.00 $449

72 1.46% 4233 8.09 8.49 10.00 $449

73 0.44% 10083 7.93 7.80 10.00 $449

74 0.71% 7384 7.92 7.95 10.00 $449

75 3.43% 6973 7.99 8.02 10.00 $449

76 3.19% 8426 7.89 7.89 10.00 $449

77 2.19% 5010 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
ELECTRICITY PRICE PROJECTIONS

LIST OF PROJECTIONS : -

1 Constant 19992 AEO 2000 - Reference Case3 GRI 19984 AEO 2000 - High Growth Case5 AEO 2000 - Low Growth

Electricity Price Projections Electricity Price Trends

Const. AEO2000 GRI 98 High Low Const. AEO2000 GRI 98 High Low

cents / kWh (in 1998 dollar)

1995 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.821996 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.631997 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001998 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.961999 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.952000 7.92 7.86 8.50 7.98 7.85 0.95 0.94 1.01 0.95 0.942001 7.92 7.74 8.38 7.83 7.71 0.95 0.92 1.00 0.93 0.922002 7.92 7.63 8.27 7.77 7.56 0.95 0.91 0.99 0.93 0.902003 7.92 7.59 8.15 7.77 7.52 0.95 0.91 0.97 0.93 0.902004 7.92 7.56 8.03 7.78 7.46 0.95 0.90 0.96 0.93 0.892005 7.92 7.47 7.92 7.72 7.37 0.95 0.89 0.94 0.92 0.882006 7.92 7.48 7.82 7.76 7.32 0.95 0.89 0.93 0.93 0.872007 7.92 7.48 7.73 7.76 7.29 0.95 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.872008 7.92 7.46 7.64 7.71 7.22 0.95 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.862009 7.92 7.37 7.54 7.66 7.15 0.95 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.852010 7.92 7.39 7.45 7.71 7.13 0.95 0.88 0.89 0.92 0.852011 7.92 7.33 7.39 7.63 7.07 0.95 0.87 0.88 0.91 0.842012 7.92 7.30 7.32 7.62 7.03 0.95 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.842013 7.92 7.29 7.26 7.60 7.00 0.95 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.842014 7.92 7.32 7.20 7.61 7.01 0.95 0.87 0.86 0.91 0.842015 7.92 7.33 7.14 7.63 7.02 0.95 0.88 0.85 0.91 0.842016 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.62 7.01 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842017 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.60 7.00 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842018 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.63 7.02 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842019 7.92 7.29 7.14 7.59 7.01 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842020 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832021 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832022 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832023 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832024 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832025 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832026 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832027 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832028 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832029 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832030 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.99 0.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.83

2021-2030 Electricity price are kept constant after 2020 for AEO 2000 Reference, High Growth and Low Growth Cases

2016-2030 Electricity price are kept constant after 2015 for GRI 1998

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
Central Air Conditioner

Percentage Distribution by Efficiency (SEER) for Central A/C's in 1997

(1995-1997 set to be the same as 1994)

AGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 

9.7 2.5% 9.7 2.5% 9.7 2.5% 9.7 2.5% 9.7 3.3% 9.7 16.1% 7.3 0.1% 7.3 4.9% 7.3 0.2% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.1% 5.3 0.0

10.2 76.7% 10.2 76.7% 10.2 76.7% 10.2 76.7% 10.2 77.3% 10.2 67.0% 7.7 0.1% 7.7 0.2% 7.7 0.1% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.1% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.1

10.7 1.0% 10.7 1.0% 10.7 1.0% 10.7 1.0% 10.7 1.6% 10.7 1.7% 8.2 19.7% 8.2 21.1% 8.2 26.4% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.2% 6.2 0.5

11.2 5.0% 11.2 5.0% 11.2 5.0% 11.2 5.0% 11.2 6.0% 11.2 6.0% 8.7 6.9% 8.7 7.9% 8.7 5.9% 6.7 0.1% 6.7 1.2% 6.7 1.2% 6.7 2.0% 6.7 3.0% 6.7 6.5

11.7 0.6% 11.7 0.6% 11.7 0.6% 11.7 0.6% 11.7 0.7% 11.7 0.9% 9.2 34.2% 9.2 34.1% 9.2 39.3% 7.2 0.2% 7.2 0.3% 7.2 0.3% 7.2 2.5% 7.2 4.3% 7.2 7.9

12.2 10.6% 12.2 10.6% 12.2 10.6% 12.2 10.6% 12.2 8.3% 12.2 5.8% 9.7 11.0% 9.7 12.8% 9.7 8.9% 7.7 2.3% 7.7 4.0% 7.7 4.0% 7.7 1.3% 7.7 1.3% 7.7 4.8

12.7 2.0% 12.7 2.0% 12.7 2.0% 12.7 2.0% 12.7 1.8% 12.7 2.0% 10.2 17.5% 10.2 12.6% 10.2 13.0% 8.2 24.8% 8.2 24.4% 8.2 24.4% 8.2 28.3% 8.2 35.9% 8.2 38.8

13.2 1.3% 13.2 1.3% 13.2 1.3% 13.2 1.3% 13.2 0.7% 13.2 0.5% 10.7 2.5% 10.7 1.3% 10.7 1.6% 8.7 18.9% 8.7 24.6% 8.7 24.6% 8.7 28.0% 8.7 24.5% 8.7 22.6

13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 11.2 2.8% 11.2 2.6% 11.2 3.6% 9.2 29.2% 9.2 26.4% 9.2 26.4% 9.2 26.6% 9.2 22.7% 9.2 12.7

14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.0% 11.7 0.2% 11.7 0.2% 11.7 0.8% 9.7 9.4% 9.7 7.7% 9.7 7.7% 9.7 3.2% 9.7 1.4% 9.7 1.7

14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 12.2 5.1% 12.2 2.3% 12.2 0.1% 10.2 10.7% 10.2 7.6% 10.2 7.6% 10.2 5.0% 10.2 4.6% 10.2 3.1

15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 10.7 1.8% 10.7 1.5% 10.7 1.5% 10.7 2.0% 10.7 1.4% 10.7 0.8

11.2 2.5% 11.2 1.9% 11.2 1.9% 11.2 0.3% 11.2 0.1% 11.2 0.1

11.7 0.1% 11.7 0.3% 11.7 0.3% 11.7 0.5% 11.7 0.4% 11.7 0.4

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100

SWEF 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.51 10.39 9.45 9.19 9.20 9.05 8.92 8.92 8.77 8.61 8.3

% Incr. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 9.9% 2.8% -0.1% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8% 3.1% 1.1

CB Dist. 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.51 10.39 9.45 9.19 9.20 9.05 8.92 8.92 8.77 8.61 8.3

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
Allocation Large Season

Group YEARMADE WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER Division State Alloc Grp

1 1,2 7% 93% 97% 3% 88% 12% 1 1

3 thru 6 7% 93% 98% 2% 89% 11% 2 2

7,8 6% 94% 98% 2% 89% 11% 3 3

9 thru 16 6% 94% 98% 2% 87% 13% 4 4

2 1,2 8% 92% 99% 1% 85% 15% 50 5

3 thru 6 8% 92% 99% 1% 86% 14% 54 6

7,8 5% 95% 99% 1% 83% 17% 6 7

9 thru 16 4% 96% 99% 1% 84% 16% 73 8

3 1,2 9% 91% 98% 2% 86% 14% 70 9

3 thru 6 9% 91% 99% 1% 89% 11% 8 10

7,8 9% 91% 99% 1% 87% 13% 9 0 11

9 thru 16 10% 90% 99% 1% 84% 16% 9 2 12

4 1,2 15% 85% 98% 2% 73% 27% 

3 thru 6 14% 86% 99% 1% 74% 26% 

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 72% 28% 

9 thru 16 12% 88% 99% 1% 67% 33% 

5 1,2 16% 84% 99% 1% 78% 22% 

3 thru 6 16% 84% 99% 1% 79% 21% 

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 73% 27% 

9 thru 16 11% 89% 99% 1% 75% 25% 

6 1,2 46% 54% 100% 0% 50% 50% 

3 thru 6 44% 56% 100% 0% 47% 53% 

7,8 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55% 

9 thru 16 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55% 

7 1,2 21% 79% 99% 1% 72% 28% 

3 thru 6 17% 83% 100% 0% 74% 26% 

7,8 17% 83% 100% 0% 62% 38% 

9 thru 16 16% 84% 100% 0% 62% 38% 

8 1,2 18% 82% 100% 0% 56% 44% 

3 thru 6 15% 85% 100% 0% 54% 46% 

7,8 14% 86% 100% 0% 50% 50% 

9 thru 16 13% 87% 100% 0% 52% 48% 

9 1,2 32% 68% 99% 1% 55% 45% 

3 thru 6 29% 71% 99% 1% 52% 48% 

7,8 26% 74% 99% 1% 47% 53% 

9 thru 16 25% 75% 99% 1% 48% 52% 

10 1,2 29% 71% 100% 0% 45% 55% 

3 thru 6 23% 77% 100% 0% 36% 64% 

7,8 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68% 

9 thru 16 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68% 

11 1,2 2% 98% 90% 10% 87% 13% 

3 thru 6 2% 98% 91% 9% 89% 11% 

7,8 2% 98% 93% 7% 88% 12% 

9 thru 16 1% 99% 93% 7% 89% 11% 

12 1,2 29% 71% 93% 7% 80% 20% 

3 thru 6 34% 66% 93% 7% 84% 16% 

7,8 42% 58% 92% 8% 81% 19% 

9 thru 16 44% 56% 92% 8% 82% 18% 

Seasonal Allocation Factors

Cooling Only Heating Only Heating & Cooling

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
NOMINAL First Mortgage Rate Data NOMINAL Second Mortgage Rate Data 

NEW ESTIMATE (1998 Survey of Consumer Finances) Mortgage Weight 2nd Mort Weight S&

Nominal interest rate Rate Percent Mortgage Bin Rate Percent 2nd Mort Bin Year Mu

Finance Method Min Max Mean 0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0 to 1 0.0% 1.8% 0.0 0 to 1 1999 

NOMINAL New home 0.0% 20.0% 7.9% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2 1998 NOMINAL 2nd mortgage 0.0% 22.0% 10.3% 2.6% 0.1% 2.6 2 to 3 2.5% 1.7% 2.5 2 to 3 1997 NOMINAL Credit card 0.0% 39.0% 13.5% 3.0% 0.2% 3.0 3 to 4 3.6% 0.7% 3.6 3 to 4 1996 

4.4% 0.3% 4.4 4 to 5 4.0% 0.0% 4.0 4 to 5 1995 

28% TAX 5.5% 0.9% 5.5 5 to 6 5.0% 0.0% 5.0 5 to 6 1994 

1.56% 1998 INFLATION 6.6% 13.9% 6.6 6 to 7 6.5% 3.7% 6.5 6 to 7 1993 

7.4% 41.3% 7.4 7 to 8 7.5% 8.3% 7.5 7 to 8 1992 

COMPOSITE -- NEW CONSTRUCTION AND REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT 8.3% 25.0% 8.3 8 to 9 8.3% 15.8% 8.3 8 to 9 1991 

Real interest rate 9.3% 8.6% 9.3 9 to 10 9.2% 16.3% 9.2 9 to 10 1990 

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 10.1% 5.0% 10.1 10 to 11 10.2% 15.8% 10.2 10 to 11 1989 

REAL New home (after tax) 34% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2% 11.1% 1.3% 11.1 11 to 12 11.3% 3.1% 11.3 11 to 12 1988 

REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 2% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 12.1% 1.7% 12.1 12 to 13 12.3% 13.3% 12.3 12 to 13 1987 -

REAL Credit card 21% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 13.5% 0.5% 13.5 13 to 14 13.3% 5.2% 13.3 13 to 14 1986 

REAL Transaction accounts 24% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 14.1% 0.3% 14.1 14 to 15 14.1% 7.7% 14.1 14 to 15 1985 REAL CD (6 month) 4% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 15.0% 0.0% 15.0 15 to 16 15.0% 1.9% 15.0 15 to 16 1984 REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 5% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 16.0% 0.3% 16.0 16 to 17 16.0% 0.0% 16.0 16 to 17 1983 REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 1982 REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 5% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 18.0% 0.1% 18.0 18 to 19 18.0% 2.0% 18.0 18 to 19 1981 -

REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 4% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 19.0% 0.0% 19.0 19 to 20 19.0% 1.0% 19.0 19 to 20 1980 

Total Share 100% Wtd Average 5.60% 20.0% 0.1% 20.0 20 to 21 20.0% 0.0% 20.0 20 to 21 1979 

21.0% 0.0% 21.0 21 to 22 1978 

7.94% 22.0% 1.6% 22.0 22 to 23 1977 -

NEW CONSTRUCTION ONLY 1976 

Real interest rate 10.30% 1975 

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean NOMINAL Credit Card Interest Rate Data 1974 -

REAL New home (after tax) 100% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2% CC Weight 1973 -

Rate Percent CC Bin 1972 

0.0% 6.6% 0.0 0 to 1 1971 

REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY 1.0% 0.2% 1.0 1 to 2 1970 

Real interest rate 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 2 to 3 1969 -

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 3.8% 1.2% 3.8 3 to 4 1968 

REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 3% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 4.9% 3.2% 4.9 4 to 5 1967 REAL Credit card 32% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 5.8% 4.4% 5.8 5 to 6 1966 -REAL Transaction accounts 36% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.4% 2.2% 6.4 6 to 7 1965 REAL CD (6 month) 6% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 7.6% 1.5% 7.6 7 to 8 1964 REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 8% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 8.4% 1.9% 8.4 8 to 9 1963 REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 9.5% 5.5% 9.5 9 to 10 1962 REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 8% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 10.3% 1.9% 10.3 10 to 11 1961 REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 7% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 11.4% 3.3% 11.4 11 to 12 1960 

Total Share 100% Wtd Average 6.33% 12.4% 8.4% 12.4 12 to 13 1959 

13.3% 5.0% 13.3 13 to 14 1958 

1 3% 14.3% 6.1% 14.3 14 to 15 1957 -

2 32% 15.3% 6.1% 15.3 15 to 16 1956 

3 36% 16.3% 4.3% 16.3 16 to 17 1955 

4 6% 17.3% 5.1% 17.3 17 to 18 1954 

5 8% 18.1% 13.8% 18.1 18 to 19 1953 6 1% 19.3% 8.9% 19.3 19 to 20 1952 

7 8% 20.1% 1.9% 20.1 20 to 21 1951 

8 7% 21.1% 5.8% 21.1 21 to 22 1950 

22.2% 1.6% 22.2 22 to 23 Average 

Finanace Method Retro 4 23.1% 0.5% 23.1 23 to 24 Minimum -

Real Interest Rate Retro 2.4% 24.3% 0.4% 24.3 24 to 25 Maximum 

25.0% 0.0% 25.0 25 to 2626.0% 0.0% 26.0 26 to 2727.0% 0.0% 27.0 27 to 2828.0% 0.0% 28.0 28 to 2929.0% 0.0% 29.0 29 to 3030.0% 0.0% 30.0 30 to 3131.0% 0.0% 31.0 31 to 3232.0% 0.0% 32.0 32 to 3333.0% 0.0% 33.0 33 to 3434.0% 0.0% 34.0 34 to 3535.0% 0.0% 35.0 35 to 3636.0% 0.0% 36.0 36 to 3737.0% 0.0% 37.0 37 to 3838.0% 0.0% 38.0 38 to 3939.0% 0.1% 39.0 39 to 40

13.51%

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
Lifetime

SURVIVAL FUNCTION OF CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS

Lifetime Distribution 18.4 years Average Life 18.4 years

Fraction Fraction

Age Retired Surv

0 0.000 1.0001 0.002 0.9982 0.002 0.9963 0.002 0.9944 0.002 0.9925 0.002 0.9906 0.002 0.9887 0.001 0.9878 0.012 0.9769 0.019 0.956

10 0.026 0.93011 0.033 0.89712 0.039 0.85813 0.043 0.81514 0.046 0.76915 0.049 0.72016 0.051 0.66917 0.053 0.61618 0.056 0.56019 0.060 0.50020 0.067 0.43321 0.078 0.35522 0.093 0.26223 0.116 0.14624 0.146 0.000

Source: M.E. Bucher, C.M. Grastataro, W.R. Coleman. 1990. "Heat Pump Life and Compressor Longevity in Diverse Climates." ASHRAE Transac

Survival Function of Central A/C

0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 

Age (year)

% Surviving

Page 1

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312
Setup

PLEASE DO NOT CHANGE ANYTHING HERE

User Choices

FPindex 2 AEO 2000 - Reference Case

StartYear 2006 Projection TrendBaseOpt 1 Baseline (SEER=10) Elec Elec Elec

StdOpt 4 30% Impr. (SEER=13) cent/kWh cent/kWh cent/kWh

PriceOpt 1 1998 8.05 1.00 1998 8.05

System Opt 1 1999 7.92 0.98 2000 7.86CB 0 2000 7.86 0.98 2010 7.39

2001 7.74 0.96 2020 7.28

Multi-Run Options: 2002 7.63 0.95 2030 7.28

StdOptBegin 2 2003 7.59 0.94 2000-2030StdOptEnd 7 2004 7.56 0.94 Growth -0.3%

2005 7.47 0.93

Comm./Resid. Choice 2 <-This cell is dynamically defined when 2006 7.48 0.93

user updates the % comm. and % resid. 2007 7.48 0.93

% Shipment Breakdown (Don’t change assumptions here) 2008 7.46 0.93

 Commercial 1 10.0% 2009 7.37 0.92 Residential 2 90.0% 2010 7.39 0.92Base Manuf. Cost $511 2011 7.33 0.91Base Equipment Price $1,240 2012 7.30 0.91Base Opt Manuf. Cost $511 2013 7.29 0.91Base Opt Equipment Price $1,240 2014 7.32 0.91Std Opt Manuf. Cost $731 2015 7.33 0.91Std Opt Equipment Price $1,665 2016 7.32 0.91System Installation Price $1,367 2017 7.32 0.91

2018 7.32 0.91

value user use 2019 7.29 0.91

used value default 2020 7.28 0.90

Manufacturer Markup 123% 0% 1 2021 7.28 0.90

Distributor Markup 109% 0% 1 2022 7.28 0.90

Dealer Markup 127% 0% 1 2023 7.28 0.90

Builder Markup 109% 0% 1 2024 7.28 0.90

Sales Tax 104% 0% 1 2025 7.28 0.90

Std. Level 2026 7.28 0.90

Std Opt Price Multiplier 100% 0% 1 0 2027 7.28 0.90

109% 0% 1 1 2028 7.28 0.90116% 0% 1 2 2029 7.28 0.90143% 0% 1 3 2030 7.28 0.90174% 0% 1 4

187% 0% 1 5187% 0% 1 6

Page 1

 EE-RM-STD-98-440 COMMENT 312