# Energy Conservation Standards for Distribution Transformers ANOPR Public Meeting 

# National Impact Analysis
Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

U.S. Department of Energy September 28, 2004 

## Energy Conservation Standards for Distribution Transformers ANOPR Public Meeting 

# National Impact Analysis
Building Technologies Program Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy U.S. Department of Energy September 28, 2004

# ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Market & Markups for Technology Engineering Equipment

Anal.yr ; is Price Screening Determination Ai )P3lysis Life-C y cle Cost and PaylDack NPR Final Effective\ / Rule Date

Energy U5e & End Use LCr td rharac ;tf rization lPeriocl Analyses,



### 2 

# ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

filIa ' r l< e t & M a li kups fo r 1--_ 17

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### a n d ' Pay back perioc l**aJ S'es**  Nati Ol ;") al I' mp act Anal"'''' t '" .J
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# Purpose

n Shipments Analysis • To estimate distribution transformer shipments over time. n National Impact Analysis • To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from higher efficiency standards levels. • To estimate the national economic impact on the nation (or the Net Present Value (NPV)) from higher efficiency standards levels.

3 

# Purpose
• Shipments Analysis • To estimate distribution transformer shipments over time. 

## • National Impact Analysis • To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from higher efficiency standards levels. • To estimate the national economic impact on the nation (or the Net Present Value (NPV)) from higher efficiency standards levels.

3

# Issues for Public Comment

® The 0 .75 Scaling Rule (ANOPR Issue #5b)

4 

# Issues for Public Comment

• The 0.75 Scaling Rule (ANOPR Issue #5b)

4

# Example of National Energy Savings Results:

Product Class 1 - Liquid -immersed, Single -phase (CSL 3)
Annual Energy Savings
0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 Year



### 5 

# Example of National Energy Savings Results: Product Class 1 - Liquid-immersed, Single-phase (CSL 3)



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## " cu :::s 

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### ... Q) c W 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 Annual Energy Savings

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### r. 

## i 

# 1 , 1 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 Year



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# Example of Net Present Value Results:

Product Class I - Liquid- immersed , Single -phase (CSL 3)

$1.0 Annual Values 9 $0.5
$0.0 1. e13-- -II-I^-^O^^
-$0.5 -

-$1.0 2007 2017 I 

# I l 

# I

2027 2037 2047

Year n Operating Cost Savings Equipment Cost Net Savings 2057 2067 Discounted Annual Values

^^^ri-r^4mriI -1^16 i>ift d

2007 2017 Operating Cost Savings Equipment Cost -Net Present Value Cumulative: -1.88 Billion 2027 2037

Year 2047 2057 2067 

### 6 • • t •• 

# Example of Net Present Value Results: Product Class 1 - Liquid-immersed, Single-phase (CSL 3)



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## ... 0 til C**~** ji5 Annual Values $1.0 

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$1.0 $0.5 $0.0 -$0.5 -$ 1 .0 2007 2017 2027 2037 Year 2047
Discounted Annual Values

2027 2037 Year 2047 2057 2067

Operating Cost Savings Equipment Cost -Net Present Value Cumulative : -1.88 Billion 2057 2067 

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# Process Flowchart

LCC 

### National Analysis 

### i S av ngs Energy Results and Other Inputs National \\ National 

## (Quads) Energy Economic Savings // Impact Shipments , 

### National t P t V l N Model 

### ue resen a e (2001 US $, billion)

7 

### lOC Analysis 

### f ReslljltiS and Ofher Inputs**o~1** 

# Process Flowchart

Nationa] !---- - M ' 

### Energy SavJngs**~** 

### National Energy Savings (Quads)
National Net Present Value (2001 US 

## $, billion)

7

# Shipments Model

I II[fll 4 m n



### For 2001: Third party estimate. For years 1977-2000: Proportional to Bureau of Economic Analysis' 

### Shipments Backcast (BEA) manufacturing quantity index for distribution transformers. For years 1950-1976: Proportional to Energy Information Agency's (EIA) electricity sales data. For 2001: Third party estimate. 

### Shipments Forecast For Years 2002-2035: Proportional to Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2003 electricity sales data. Dry-type / Liquid-immersed Proportional to EIA's commercial/industrial electricity sales market 

### Market Shares share. Regular Replacement Equipment lifetime distribution - same as in LCC analysis 

### Market Mean lifetime of 32 years. For liquid-immersed transformers: • Low: 0.00 Long

- term Purchase Price • Medium: -0.04

Elasticity • High: -0.20 For dry-type transformers: • 0.00 8 

# Shipments Model Input I 

### Assum ' ptions Shipments Backcast
Shipments Forecast Ory-type/Liquid-immersed Market Shares Regular Replacement Market Long-term Purchase Price Elasticity For 2001: Third party estimate. For years 1977-2000: Proportional to Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA) manufacturing quantity index for distribution transformers. For years 1950-1976: Proportional to Energy Information Agency's (EIA) electricity sales data. For 2001: Third party estimate. For Years 2002-2035: Proportional to Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2003 electricity sales data. Proportional to EIA's commercial/industrial electricity sales market share. Equipment lifetime distribution - same as in LCC analysis Mean lifetime of 32 years. For liquid-immersed transformers: • Low: 0.00 • Medium: -0.04 • High: -0.20 For dry-type transformers: • 0.00 

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# Inputs
• Energy Prices • Marginal energy prices from LCC with trend from AEO n National Discount Rate • 3% and 7% real from Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4 ® Installed Cost • Increase in equipment price and installation cost due to standards (LCC average value) n Annual Electricity Consumption • Average annual electricity consumption for each design line from LCC • Primary Energy Savings • Calculated from site savings using site-to-source factors from NEMS-BT (Building Technologies version of National Energy Modeling System) 

### e Transformer Loading • Root mean square of the hourly transformer loading relative to the transformer capacity from LCC ii Load Growth • Fractional increase in load since a transformer was installed (estimated from LCC load growth rate) n Size Scaling of Losses and Costs • 0.75 power scaling rule was applied to project losses and costs from one representative unit to transformers of other sizes within the same design line



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# Inputs

• Energy Prices • Marginal energy prices from LCC with trend from AEO 

### • National Discount Rate • 3% and 7% real from Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4 

### • Installed Cost • Increase in equipment price and installation cost due to standards (LCC average value) 

### • Annual Electricity Consumption • Average annual electricity consumption for each design line from LCC 

### • Primary Energy Savings • Calculated from site savings using site-to-source factors from NEMS-BT (Building Technologies version of National Energy Modeling System) 

### • Transformer Loading • Root mean square of the hourly transformer loading relative to the transformer capacity from LCC 

### • Load Growth • Fractional increase in load since a transformer was installed (estimated from LCe load growth rate) 

### • Size Scaling of Losses and Costs 

## • 0.75 power scaling rule was applied to project losses and costs from one representative unit to transformers of other sizes within the same design line



### 9I

70

65 

# a

. 60 ft y 55 0 0 50 a, 45 U) C 40 35 M1 A 

# Input Examples to the National Impact Analysis: Per Unit Installed Cost and Total Rated Losses for Design Line 7

97.5% 98
. 0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5%



### Efficiency 35

10 97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5%



### Efficiency

10 

# Input Examples to the National Impact Analysis: Per Unit Installed Cost and Total Rated Losses for Design Line 7**70~--------------------~ 65** **+- ------** **-- --** **-- ----** **--~** 

# - <C

### ~**60--\-- ---** **---- ----** **-- ----** **-- ~**  

# - o 

# -**~ 55+-----------** **-- --** **---- ~**  

### o (J**~ 50~-** **---- --** **---- ---** **-- --** **-- ~**  CI)


# - S**45+--- --** **-- --~** **-- --** **-- --~**  fn s::**40+- --** **-- --** **---- --** **-- --** **-- --** **~ 35+-----~----~----~--~**  97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5% 

### Efficiency**35~--------------------~** 

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# ....**10+-----~----~--~~--~** 97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5%
. 

### Efficiency



### 10I 111: !'_ --•:n•^^4- 1- -i7 - 

# The 0
. 75 Scaling Rule (ANOPR Issue #5b) Used to translate LCC representative unit energy consumption to product class-specific energy consumption. Iss 

## ue s



## Used to translate LCC representative unit equipment costs to product class specific equipment costs. The Department seeks stakeholder comments on the application of the 0.75 power scaling rule.

11 

# The 0.75 Scaling Rule (ANOPR Issue #5b) Used to translate 

# Lee representative unit energy consumption to product class-specific energy consumption. Used to translate 

# Lee representative unit equipment costs to product class specific equipment costs.


## The Department seeks stakeholder comments on the application of the 0.75 power scaling rule.

11

# Other National Impact Issues

The Department seeks comments and recommendations from stakeholders on any other aspects related to the National Impact Analysis.

12 

# Other National Impact Issues
The Department seeks comments and recommendations from stakeholders on any ollher aspects related to the National Impact Analysis.

12^l!lT^^_0_,•'i"J'_ it^f ir•i^ •'%J'^J 

# Other ANOPR Issues

The Department seeks comments and recommendations from stakeholders on any other aspects of the Distribution Transformer ANOPR analysis. ssues



### 13 

# Other ANOPR Issues
The Department seeks comments and recommendations from stakeholders on 

## any other aspects of the Distribution Transformer ANOPR analysis.

13