National Impact Analysis 

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagra

Framework 

Document ANOPR NOPR Fina

Rule

Energy Use Characterization

Market and TechnologyAssessment

ScreeningAnalysis

Engineering Analysis

Markups for Equipment Price Determination Life-Cycle 

Cost and Payback Period Analysis

Shipments Analysis

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Purpose

 Shipments Analysis

• Estimate refrigerated beverage vending machine (BVM) 

over time.

 National Impact Analysis

• Estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from BVM 

efficiency levels.

• Estimate the national economic impact on the nation (or 

Value (NPV)) of the BVM equipment at different efficienc

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
National Impact Analysis Proc

Shipments Model

National Energy Savings

National EconomicImpacts

LCC Analysis Results and Other Inputs

 National energy savings calculated for period from 2 NPV calculated for period from 2012-2062 (50 years)

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Inputs to Shipments Analysis M

Population Forecast

Industry Estimate of 

Shipments (2002-2005)

Initial Replacement 

Shipments 

Initial Shipments to New 

Locations 

Initial BVM Stock

Estimated Lifetime 

of BVM Stock

Shipments to New 

Locations 

C

% 

Equipm

Population Forecast

Industry Estimate of 

Shipments (2002-2005)

Initial Replacement 

Shipments 

Initial Shipments to New 

Locations 

Initial BVM Stock

Estimated Lifetime 

of BVM Stock

Shipments to New 

Locations 

C

% 

Equipm

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Shipments Model Inputs

 Distribution of Sales by Equipment Class and Pur

• Based on 2002-2005 from State of the Vending In

industry contacts, and assumptions (for capacities

 Initial Stock

• Declined from 2000 to 2006. Fell from about 4.2 m

approximately 3.7 million.

 Sales of New Equipment

• Assumed to be 50,000 in 2007. • Grows at 2%/yr thereafter based on rate of popula

 Sales of Replacement Equipment

• All estimated sales 2001-2006 assumed to be for 

equipment at 150,000/yr in 2001 declining to 67,0

• Future replacements based on existing stock and 

of stock survival (14-year average life) with replac

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Shipments Model Results

Thousands of Units Shipped by Year and Equ

Equipment Class 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 A-L-IN 

7.7 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.8 9.2 

A-M-IN 

7.7 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.8 9.2 

A-S-IN 

7.7 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.8 9.2 

B-L-IO 

77.6 77.0 79.8 84.2 88.8 93.4 

B-M-IO 

77.6 77.0 79.8 84.2 88.8 93.4 

B-S-IO 

77.6 77.0 79.8 84.2 88.8 93.4 

A=fully-cooled machine (indoor use only) S=small M=meB=all other machines (indoor or outdoor use) IN=indoor only 

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
National Impact Analysis Appro

Stock of Units by Year

Units Shipped by Year

Units Shipped by Equipment Class, Efficiency Level by Year

 Installed Costsper Unit, Energy Use per Unit, Energy Prices, Other Operating Costs per Unit

Shipments Background

Market Shares by Equipment Class

Annualized Costs Calculations by Risk Group

Market Shares by Equipment Class 

Stock of Units by Equipment Classand Efficiency, by Year 

Installed Costs, by Equipment Class, Efficiency Level

Total Installed Costs by Year, Equipment Class, Efficiency Level

Total Energy Used,Energy Costs, and Other Operating Costs by Equipment Class, Efficieny Level, and Year

LCC Model

Electricity Used, Electricity Cost per Unit, Other Operating Costs per Unit 

Discand Leve

 Results: Cumulative Energy Use, PV and Annualized Installed Cost and Operating Costs, Net Present Value and Annualized Costs

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Inputs

 Shipments

• Annual units shipped by equipment class taken from ship

 Total Installed Cost

• National average cost per unit by equipment class and ef

LCC analysis.

 Repair and Maintenance Costs

• Average annualized values per unit by equipment class a

from LCC analysis.

 Annual Energy Use

• National average annual energy use per unit by equipme

level.

 Market Shares by Efficiency Level

• Estimated for base case using commercial customer risk

EIA NEMS model and LCC analysis results.

• Developed for each standards case using a roll-up appro

shares below a standard level are “rolled into” the market level.

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Inputs (cont.)

 Efficiency Trends

• Future trends in average equipment efficiency improveme

due to lack of historical market data.

 Energy Prices Escalation

• For base year of 2012, electricity prices taken from LCC • Future electricity prices adjusted using 2007 Annual Ener

estimated using 2020-2030 forecast trends).

 Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

• Conversion factors forecast using 2007 Annual Energy O

estimated using 2020-2030 forecast trends).

• Factors vary annually and account for generation, distribu

losses.

 Discount Rate

• Rate set at 7 percent and 3 percent real from OMB’s Reg

Guideline A-4.

• Future expenses discounted to 2007, reported in 2007$.

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Base Case and Standards Case Shipmen

(Issue #5)

 Base case market shares by efficiency level are de

economic model.

 DOE did not have data with which to calibrate thes

to actual shipments by efficiency level. 

 DOE did not have historical data to indicate how e

efficiencies have changed over time or might chan

 Forecasted market shares for efficiencies above t

level remain constant from 2012 until the end of th

DOE invites comments on its basis for the forecasted prediction on how standards impact efficiency distribthat standards take effect. 

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Differential Impact of New Standards on Fu

by Equipment Classes 

(Issue #6)

 The shipments model used by DOE presumes tha

market shares between equipment classes remaintime.

 DOE is concerned that higher standards set for sp

equipment could shift the market to use other equhave greater energy consumption.

DOE invites comments on the potential for standardsshifts between equipment classes that could reduce savings, and how the standards-setting process can eliminate these potential shifts. 

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Example of Cumulative Energy Savings and 

(2012–2042 at 7% Discount Rate) 

Cumulative Source Energy Savings and NPV

0

0.020.040.060.08

0.1

0.120.14

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4

Level 5

Level 6

Level 7

Level 

Efficiency Level

Cumulative Energy Savings (Quads)

Energy Savings NPV

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Example of Net Present Value Re

(2012–2042)

Efficiency Level

Level 4

Net Savings

-0.005

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2

Year

Billion 2007$

Undiscounted Total Annual Operating SavingsUndiscounted Annual Equipment Purchase SavingsDiscounted Total Net Annual Impact

Select efficiency level to plot Annual Net Impacts trend.

Total Net Annual Impact (red line) discounted at 7%

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
National Impact Analysis Resu

 National Energy Savings (2012-2042) range from 0

2 to 0.39 quads at Level 8 (maximum efficiency levall equipment classes

 Range of NPV savings (at 7 percent discount rate) 

billion (Level 8) to +$313 million (Level 5) 

 Range of NPV Savings (at 3 percent discount rate

billion (Level 8) to +$855 million (Level 5)

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28
Other Issues

DOE invites comments and recommendations aspects related to the National Impact Analysi

EERE-2006-STD-0125 COMMENT 28