What do the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) spreadsheets do?The LCC spreadsheets perform calculations to determine life-cycle cost and payback periods. The LCC spreadsheets operate in Excel 97 or Excel 7 (Windows 95). The Excel add-on Crystal Ball (version 4.0) allows the user to perform uncertainty analysis on key input variables.What are the Worksheets in the Workbook?Each LCC spreadsheet or workbook consists of the following worksheets:LCC (Sample Calc)contains the input selections and a summary table of energy use, operating costs, LCC and Payback.LCC (Simulations)contains the input selections as in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet. If Crystal Ball is running, the energy, cost, LCC, and payback data are from the current sample. If Crystal Ball has finished running, the data are from the final sample.Engineeringcontains the manufacturer costs submitted by ARI for split systems and single package systems at each efficiency level. Also included are the manufacturer, distributor, and dealer markups, the sales tax, the installation price, and the repair and maintenance costs.RECS HH Datafor each sample household, contains average and marginal electricity prices, annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps), the geographic location, the year the household was built, and the equipment’s age index.COMM Datafor each sample building, contains average and marginal electricity prices, and annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps).Energy Pricecontains projections of future energy prices from various sources.SEER Distcontains historical shipment-weighted efficiency data by year; this is used for determining the probable SEER of existing space-conditioning equipment based on age.Seasonal Allocation Factorscontains seasonal (i.e., summer and non-summer) allocation factors of annual cooling (or heating) energy which indicate the fraction used by season. The seasonal allocation factors are based on the age and the geographic location of the household. The factorsare used for determining the annual marginal electricity rate. Summer and non-summer allocation factors are multiplied by summer and non-summer marginal rates, respectively, and then summed to arrive at the annual marginal rate.drate distcontains data from which an average discount rate and a distribution of discount rates are determined.Lifetimecontains the survival function for central air conditioners and heat pumps and the average central air conditioner and heat pump lifetime in years.Setupthis is used as an interface between user inputs and the rest of the worksheets -- do not modify this sheet.How does the user operate the spreadsheet?To execute the spreadsheets fully you will need both Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball software. Both applications are commercially available. Crystal ball is available at http://www.decisioneering.com.1) Once you have downloaded the LCC file from the Web, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for sheet LCC (Sample Calc) or LCC (Simulations).2) Use Excel’s commands at the top View/Zoom to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.3) The user interacts with the spreadsheet by clicking choices or entering data using the graphical interface that comes with the spreadsheet. Choices can be selected from the box labeled List Inputs on either of two worksheets:a) LCC (Sample Calc) or,b) LCC (Simulations).A change in either input sheet also changes the other. In the box titled List Inputs select choices from the selection boxes for the following: (1) energy price projection, (2) start year, (3) base case design, (4) standard case design, (5) manufacturer cost data, and(6) system type (split or single package). A new discount rate or lifetime can also be entered if a value other than the default value or default distribution is wanted, however, this would change the code and we do not recommend saving the spreadsheet after thecode is changed.a) energy price projection,b) start year,c) base case design,d) standard case design,e) system type (split or single package) (this choice appears just outside of the List Inputs box),f) price multipler (either ARI Mean manufacuturer cost multipliers or Reverse Engineering manufacturer cost multipliers),g) markups (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer, distributor, dealer, and builder markups and sales tax), andh) price multiplier (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer cost multiplier).4) To change assumptions on List Inputs click on the assumption you wish to change, click on the new assumption from the menu.5) This spreadsheet gives the user two methods of running the spreadsheet.a) If the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet is chosen, then all calculations are performed for single input values, usually an average. The new results are shown on the same sheet as soon as the new values are entered.b) Alternately, if the LCC (Simulations) sheet is used, the spreadsheet generates results that are distributions. Some of the inputs are also distributions. The results from the LCC distribution are shown as single values and refer only to the results from thelast Monte Carlo sample and are therefore not meaningful. To run the distribution version of the spreadsheet the Excel add-in software called Crystal Ball must be enabled.What is the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet used for?LCC difference and Payback as provided in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet are based on single-point values. This page can be used to see the effect of changing a single parameter.How does the user run the Crystal Ball simulation? (LCC Simulations sheet)To produce sensitivity results using Crystal Ball, you need simply select Run from the Run menu (on the menu bar). To make basic changes in the run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from the Run menu. After each simulation run, the user needs toselect Reset (also from the Run menu) before Run can be selected again. Once Crystal Ball has completed its run sequence it will produce a series of distributions. Using the menu bars on the distribution results it is possible to obtain further statistical information. The time taken to completea run sequence can be reduced by minimizing the Crystal Ball window in Excel.A step by step summary of the procedure, for running a distribution analysis, is outlined below:1) Find the Crystal Ball toolbar (at top of screen)2) Click on RUN3) Select Preference and choose from the following choices:a) Monte Carlob) Latin Hypercube (recommended)c) Initial seed choices and whether you want it to be constant between runsd) Select number of Monte Carlo Trials (we suggest 10,000).4) To run the simulation, follow the following sequence (on the Crystal Ball toolbar)RUNRESETRUN5) Now wait until the program informs you that the simulation is completed.What kind of output does Crystal Ball generate?1) After the simulation has finished, to see the distribution charts generated, click on the Windows tab bar that is labeled Crystal Ball.2) The life-cycle cost savings and payback periods are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations, or trials, performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts show the low and high endpointsof the forecasts. The View selection on the Crystal Ball toolbar can be used to specify whether you want cumulative or frequency plots shown.3) To calculate the probability of that LCC savings will occur, either type 0 in the box by the right arrow, or move the arrow key with the cursor to 0 on the scale. The value in the Certainty box shows the likelihood that the LCC savings will occur. To calculate thecertainty of payback period being below a certain number of years, choose that value as the high endpoint.4) To generate a printout report, select Create Report from the Run menu. The toolbar choice of Forecast Windows allows you to select the charts and statistics you are interested in. For further information on Crystal Ball outputs, please refer to Understandingthe Forecast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual.LIFE CYCLE COST OF PACKAGED SYSTEM CENTRAL A/C - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVG VALUES), January 2001Dollar Values in 1998 $Elec Price(cent/kWh)Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow Disc.LIST INPUTSAge Year Average MarginalBase Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff.FactorELECTRICITY PRICE(cent/kWh)AverageMarginal1998 8.81 8.57ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase20068.19 7.96$2,607 $3,032$425$2,607 $3,032$425$2,607 $3,032$425Year Equip. Retires 2023 7.97 7.751 2006 8.19 7.96 $259 $217 -$41 $2,866 $3,249 $383 $2,852 $3,238 $386 0.952 2007 8.19 7.96 $259 $218 -$41 $3,125 $3,467 $342 $3,084 $3,433 $348 0.90BASE CASE DESIGN3 2008 8.16 7.94 $258 $217 -$41 $3,383 $3,684 $301 $3,304 $3,617 $313 0.85PRICE OPTIONSEER 10CHANGESEER 134 2009 8.06 7.84 $256 $215 -$41 $3,639 $3,899 $260 $3,510 $3,790 $281 0.805 2010 8.09 7.87 $257 $216 -$41 $3,896 $4,115 $219 $3,705 $3,955 $250 0.76STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price $2,607 $42516%$3,0326 2011 8.02 7.80 $255 $215 -$40 $4,151 $4,330 $179 $3,889 $4,109 $220 0.72Annual Repair & Maint. $70 $11%$717 2012 7.99 7.77 $254 $214 -$40 $4,405 $4,543 $138 $4,063 $4,256 $193 0.68Compressor Repl. Cost $278 $8229%$3608 2013 7.98 7.76 $254 $214 -$40 $4,659 $4,757 $98 $4,227 $4,394 $167 0.65LIFETIME (years) 18.49 2014 8.01 7.79 $255 $214 -$40 $4,914 $4,972 $58 $4,383 $4,525 $142 0.61DISCOUNT RATE 5.6% Annual kWh Use 2305 -532-23%1773 Payback10 2015 8.03 7.81 $255 $215 -$41 $5,169 $5,186 $17 $4,531 $4,650 $119 0.58Annual Operating Cost (years)11 2016 8.01 7.79 $255 $214 -$40 $5,424 $5,401 -$23 $4,671 $4,768 $96 0.55ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 1998(cent/kWh)2006$259 -$41-16%$217 10.312 2017 8.01 7.79 $255 $214 -$40 $5,678 $5,615 -$64 $4,804 $4,879 $75 0.52Average 8.8113 2018 8.01 7.79 $255 $214 -$40 $5,933 $5,829 -$104 $4,929 $4,985 $55 0.49Marginal 8.57 Cumulative Cash Flow $7,584 -$240-3%$7,34414 2019 7.98 7.76 $532 $574 $41 $6,465 $6,403 -$63 $5,178 $5,252 $75 0.47Life-Cycle Cost ($) $5,629 $30%$5,63215 2020 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $6,719 $6,616 -$103 $5,290 $5,347 $57 0.44AVERAGE UEC(kWh)250116 2021 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $6,973 $6,830 -$143 $5,396 $5,436 $40 0.42AVERAGE SEER 9.217 2022 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $7,227 $7,044 -$183 $5,496 $5,521 $24 0.4018 2023 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $7,480 $7,257 -$223 $5,592 $5,601 $9 0.3819 2024 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $7,734 $7,471 -$264 $5,682 $5,677 -$5 0.3620 2025 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $7,988 $7,684 -$304 $5,767 $5,749 -$19 0.3421 2026 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $8,242 $7,898 -$344 $5,848 $5,817 -$31 0.3222 2027 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $8,495 $8,111 -$384 $5,925 $5,881 -$44 0.3023 2028 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $8,749 $8,325 -$424 $5,997 $5,942 -$55 0.2924 2029 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $9,003 $8,538 -$465 $6,066 $6,000 -$66 0.2725 2030 7.97 7.75 $254 $214 -$40 $9,257 $8,752 -$505 $6,131 $6,055 -$76 0.26AEO 2000 - Reference Case2006Baseline (SEER=10)30% Impr. (SEER=13)Fuel PriceComparionShow PlotShow InputsPriceMultiplierMark Up'sPackaged SystemRev EngrLIFE CYCLE COST OF PACKAGED SYSTEM CENTRAL A/C - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVG VALUES), January 2000Dollar Values in 1998 $Elec Price(cent/kWh)Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow Disc.LIST INPUTSAge Year Average MarginalBase Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff.FactorELECTRICITY PRICE(cent/kWh)AverageMarginal1998 7.62 6.73ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase20067.08 6.26$2,607 $3,032$425$2,607 $3,032$425$2,607 $3,032$425Year Equip. Retires 2023 6.89 6.091 2006 7.08 6.26 $127 $117 -$11 $2,734 $3,148 $414 $2,729 $3,144 $414 0.962 2007 7.08 6.26 $127 $117 -$11 $2,862 $3,265 $403 $2,847 $3,251 $405 0.92BASE CASE DESIGN PRICE OPTION3 2008 7.06 6.24 $127 $116 -$11 $2,989 $3,381 $393 $2,959 $3,354 $395 0.88SEER 10CHANGESEER 134 2009 6.98 6.17 $126 $116 -$10 $3,115 $3,497 $382 $3,066 $3,453 $386 0.855 2010 7.00 6.19 $127 $116 -$10 $3,242 $3,613 $372 $3,170 $3,547 $378 0.82STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price $2,607 $42516%$3,0326 2011 6.94 6.13 $126 $116 -$10 $3,368 $3,729 $362 $3,268 $3,638 $370 0.78Annual Repair & Maint. $70 $11%$717 2012 6.91 6.11 $126 $115 -$10 $3,493 $3,845 $351 $3,363 $3,725 $362 0.75Compressor Repl. Cost $278 $8229%$3608 2013 6.90 6.10 $126 $115 -$10 $3,619 $3,960 $341 $3,454 $3,808 $355 0.729 2014 6.93 6.13 $126 $116 -$10 $3,745 $4,076 $330 $3,541 $3,888 $347 0.69Annual kWh Use 806 -186-23%620 Payback10 2015 6.95 6.14 $126 $116 -$10 $3,871 $4,191 $320 $3,625 $3,965 $340 0.67LIFETIME (years) 18.4% SHIPMENTAnnual Operating Cost (years)11 2016 6.93 6.12 $126 $116 -$10 $3,997 $4,307 $310 $3,705 $4,039 $334 0.64DISCOUNT RATE 4.2% Comm.10%2006$127 -$11-8%$117 40.012 2017 6.93 6.12 $126 $116 -$10 $4,123 $4,423 $299 $3,782 $4,110 $327 0.61Resd.90%13 2018 6.93 6.13 $126 $116 -$10 $4,249 $4,538 $289 $3,857 $4,178 $321 0.59HOUSEHOLD ELEC PRICE IN 1998 Cumulative Cash Flow $5,207 $3156%$5,52214 2019 6.91 6.10 $404 $475 $71 $4,653 $5,013 $360 $4,085 $4,446 $362 0.57(cent/kWh)Average 7.62 Life-Cycle Cost ($) $4,365 $3398%$4,70415 2020 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $4,779 $5,129 $350 $4,153 $4,509 $356 0.54Marginal 6.7316 2021 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $4,905 $5,244 $340 $4,218 $4,569 $351 0.5217 2022 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $5,030 $5,360 $329 $4,281 $4,627 $346 0.50HOUSEHOLD UEC(kWh)96518 2023 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $5,156 $5,475 $319 $4,342 $4,682 $341 0.48HOUSEHOLD SEER 8.419 2024 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $5,282 $5,590 $309 $4,399 $4,735 $336 0.4620 2025 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $5,407 $5,706 $298 $4,455 $4,786 $331 0.4421 2026 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $5,533 $5,821 $288 $4,508 $4,835 $327 0.4222 2027 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $5,659 $5,936 $278 $4,560 $4,882 $323 0.4123 2028 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $5,784 $6,052 $267 $4,609 $4,928 $319 0.3924 2029 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $5,910 $6,167 $257 $4,656 $4,971 $315 0.3825 2030 6.89 6.09 $126 $115 -$10 $6,036 $6,283 $247 $4,701 $5,013 $311 0.36AEO 2000 - Reference Case2006Baseline (SEER=10)20% Impr. (SEER=12)Fuel PriceComparionShow PlotShow InputsUpdatePriceMultiplierMark Up'sSplit SystemRev EngrPACKAGED SYSTEM CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS: COST AND EFFICIENCY DATA - Reverse EngineeringTotalTotal% Over Manufacturer's Cost Multiplier Manuf. Equip. Install. Installed Annual Annual Compr. Compr.Level Description Baseline ARI mean Reverse Engr Cost Price Price Price Repair Maint. SEER Mfg. Cost PriceSEER Split Packaged Split Packaged(1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (1998$) (Btu/Whr) (1998$) (1998$)0 Baseline (SEER=10) 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%$511 $1,240$1,367 $2,607 $34 $36 10 $122 $2781 10% Impr. (SEER=11) 10% 116% 119% 112% 109%$557 $1,329$1,367 $2,696 $34 $36 11 $152 $3322 20% Impr. (SEER=12) 20% 136% 130% 128% 116%$593 $1,398$1,367 $2,765 $34 $36 12 $153 $3343 30% Impr. (SEER=13) 30% 163% 163% 144% 143%$731 $1,665$1,367 $3,032 $35 $36 13 $167 $3604 40% Impr. (SEER=14) 40% 203% 187% 182% 174%$889 $1,971$1,367 $3,338 $54 $36 14 $167 $3605 50% Impr. (SEER=15) 50% 240% 223% 199% 187%$956 $2,099$1,367 $3,466 $57 $36 15 $221 $4586 80% Impr. (SEER=18) 80% 240% 223% 199% 187%$956 $2,099$1,367 $3,466 $57 $36 18 $221 $458Split PackagedBaseline Mfg Cost $394 $511Installation Price $1,279 $1,367Distributior Markup Dealer MarkupMarginal MarkupsCumulative CumulativeNew Retrofit Wt.Avg / BaselineMarkup Probability Markup Probability34% 66%Sampled Markup1.027 1% 1.050 1%Manufacturer Markup 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.231.056 10% 1.150 10%Distributor Markup 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.371.069 20% 1.190 20%Dealer Markup 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.271.077 30% 1.219 30%Builder Markup 1.26 1.00 1.09 1.09Sales Tax Distribution for Retrofit1.084 40% 1.244 40%10% 30% 38% 22%1.091 50% 1.267 50%Sales Tax 1.00 1.07 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.098 60% 1.290 60%1.105 70% 1.314 70%Service Cost $361.114 80% 1.343 80%1.126 90% 1.384 90%New/Retrofit Group1 1=New, 2=Retrofit1.155 99%1.483 99%RECS HH DataHOUSEHOLD DATA FROM 1993 RECSHouse ID Sampled1Adjusted RECS97CDD CDD 93 Avg 93 Marginal RateLarge Year Alloc. Yr. Made 93 Marg Equip. MEAN Furnace Baseline RECSHouse ID Weight UEC UEC 65 65-30 ElecRate Summer Winter Division State Made Group Group ElecRate Age idx SEER Check Mfg Cost House IDHOUSE ID1(1000Btu)(1000Btu)cent/kWhin 93$/kWhcent/kWhHOUSEHOLD INFORMATION1 871232921717 603 1156 7.8 $0.068 $0.072 4 0 542 6.9 4 8.36 1 $367 1004Equip Age Index 42 2199040973197 572 733 7.4 $0.059 $0.062 3 0 532 5.9 3 9.19 1 $367 1009Equip. Age 143 28529120588111 1792 2664 6.6 $0.063 $0.058 7 3 482 6.2 2 10.57 1 $367 10134 16659116678038 505 733 7.5 $0.072 $0.069 3 0 632 7.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1029SEER 8.365 987467485291 1402 1788 6.2 $0.068 $0.046 6 0 1074 6.4 3 9.19 1 $367 1030UEC 965kWh/yrAge Avg. Age6 264451499017628 862 733 7.0 $0.083 $0.044 3 0 131 7.9 3 9.19 1 $367 1037Index Age Dist.7 175931301910328 2522 3179 8.4 $0.080 $0.084 5 4 863 8.2 1 10.57 1 $367 1040Avg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 7.77cents/kWh1 118 176571413773 704 1287 12.3 $0.134 $0.128 9 2 5122 13.2 1 10.57 2 $449 1048Marg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 6.86cents/kWh2 339 1832517011409 607 733 6.9 $0.063 $0.061 3 0 131 6.2 1 10.57 1 $367 10513 7710 1295213551706 923 733 7.7 $0.077 $0.073 3 0 231 7.7 1 10.57 1 $367 1054Avg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.62cents/kWh4 14 1411 678138831720 512 1156 7.1 $0.066 $0.067 4 0 141 6.6 3 9.19 1 $367 1055Marg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 6.73cents/kWh5 20 2012 26834176635717 335 1035 6.5 $0.061 $0.062 2 0 121 6.1 4 8.36 1 $367 106696 10 1013 1983357823463 439 733 6.5 $0.061 $0.056 3 0 131 6.0 4 8.36 1 $367 1068Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $367 7 10 1014 52122123479625 1722 2209 6.9 $0.054 $0.058 7 0 793 5.5 4 8.36 1 $367 10758 10 1015 133537200910 328 2595 6.7 $0.057 $0.055 8 0 1101 5.6 3 9.19 1 $367 1078RECS House ID100499 10 1016 1723797313648 388 1035 6.7 $0.062 $0.063 2 0 723 6.2 4 8.36 1 $367 1095RECS Weight871217 2198729603822 1662 1287 12.3 $0.136 $0.138 9 2 8123 13.7 3 9.19 2 $449 1096RECS UEC329218 1827986553720 1145 2664 6.8 $0.068 $0.064 7 3 482 6.7 2 10.57 1 $367 112519 3567380246702 1845 2209 9.8 $0.082 $0.094 7 0 793 8.5 4 8.36 1 $367 113120 11832744864 682 587 9.6 $0.088 $0.085 1 0 612 8.7 4 8.36 2 $449 1133Conversion from 1997$ to 1998$0.9821 13398859115398 4651 2595 11.5 $0.095 $0.094 8 0 8103 9.5 3 9.19 1 $367 113522 1359150363075 632 1035 8.7 $0.075 $0.079 2 0 823 7.5 3 9.19 2 $449 1141Wt.Avg. Average Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 9.07cents/kWh23 2034219041797 1091 1156 8.8 $0.070 $0.071 4 0 442 7.0 5 7.18 1 $367 1142Wt.Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 8.79cents/kWh24 571433712415 1281 1788 6.7 $0.066 $0.059 6 0 572 6.5 5 7.18 2 $449 1158Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 8.90cents/kWh25 1698780645666 515 733 7.3 $0.062 $0.065 3 0 833 6.3 3 9.19 1 $367 1159Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 8.62cents/kWh26 1205554276450 1374 1156 7.0 $0.088 $0.043 4 0 141 8.1 3 9.19 1 $367 116227 2313952693170 441 733 6.4 $0.058 $0.059 3 0 833 5.8 3 9.19 1 $367 1169Wt. Avg. Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $388.128 1344780636264 1389 1788 6.6 $0.062 $0.058 6 0 672 6.1 4 8.36 1 $367 118829 102855556834808 1120 1788 5.7 $0.048 $0.053 6 0 1274 4.9 2 10.57 1 $367 11901997 RECS30 1098537561758 541 1156 7.6 $0.084 $0.068 4 0 141 8.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1193HH Average UEC 2132kWh/yr31 1278287719159 2782 2664 7.6 $0.068 $0.088 7 3 482 7.1 3 9.19 1 $367 1196HH Average SEER 9.1332 17321111988504 1187 1563 8.2 $0.116 $0.062 5 0 1354 11.0 2 10.57 1 $367 119833 11411113787363 1724 2664 6.1 $0.067 $0.038 7 3 382 6.3 3 9.19 1 $367 121134 1499130232734 663 733 7.9 $0.084 $0.060 3 0 733 8.2 3 9.19 2 $449 121635 742741951848 366 842 16.5 $0.126 $0.126 2 1 924 12.6 3 9.19 1 $367 121936 1601035015174 1902 1287 13.2 $0.154 $0.134 9 2 4122 14.7 5 7.18 2 $449 122337 170011505655 319 733 6.6 $0.067 $0.064 3 0 733 6.7 3 9.19 2 $449 122538 3833834002365 720 1035 12.7 $0.134 $0.118 2 0 723 13.3 4 8.36 1 $367 122839 26430118142422 532 2595 5.0 $0.047 $0.049 8 0 15104 4.8 1 10.57 1 $367 123540 205481376511933 1915 2209 9.3 $0.095 $0.088 7 0 692 9.3 4 8.36 1 $367 124041 116221754911974 1220 1788 5.0 $0.078 $0.040 6 0 572 7.2 3 9.19 2 $449 124242 1983346992686 419 733 9.1 $0.100 $0.086 3 0 231 9.9 3 9.19 1 $367 124343 2810814991841 900 733 6.4 $0.078 $0.046 3 0 532 7.5 96 8.92 2 $449 124444 7933388039908 825 733 7.3 $0.051 $0.050 3 0 1034 5.1 3 9.19 1 $367 1250HELPHELPPage 1

# COMMERCIAL BUILDING DATA

Building ID Sampled 1 98 Avg 98 Marg Baseline

Building I D Weight UEC ElecRate ElecRate SEE R Mfg Cost

(1000Btu) cent/kWh cent/kWh

Building ID 1 1 0.37% 3814 7.89 7.97 10.00 $449

BUILDING INFORMATIO N 2 0.79% 2782 7.84 8.45 10.00 $449

SEER 10.00 3 0.07% 5488 7.95 7.85 10.00 $449

UEC 3814 kWh/yr 

# 4 0.33% 4356 7.94 7.97 10.00 $449

5 1.02% 4026 8.01 8.13 10.00 $449

Avg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.89 cents/kWh 

# 6 1.50% 4461 7.90 7.96 10.00 $449

Marg. Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 7.97 cents/kWh 

# 7 0.50% 3653 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

8 1.01% 3814 7.89 7.97 10.00 $449

Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $449 9 1.79% 2782 7.84 8.45 10.00 $449

10 0.23% 5488 7.95 7.85 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $449.0 11 0.28% 4356 7.94 7.97 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. SEER 10.0 12 2.99% 4026 8.01 8.13 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. UEC (kWh/yr) 5,824 13 3.66% 4461 7.90 7.96 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 7.9 14 1.84% 3653 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$ ) 8.1 15 1.34% 3541 7.90 8.02 10.00 $449

16 2.01% 2435 7.92 8.28 10.00 $449

17 0.86% 5119 7.95 7.89 10.00 $449

18 0.96% 3982 7.95 8.01 10.00 $449

19 3.05% 3747 8.01 8.11 10.00 $449

20 3.85% 4129 7.91 8.00 10.00 $449

21 2.92% 3336 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

22 0.77% 3673 7.97 8.10 10.00 $449

23 1.07% 2552 7.92 8.56 10.00 $449

24 0.12% 5196 7.95 7.88 10.00 $449

25 0.39% 4091 7.95 8.02 10.00 $449

26 1.52% 3805 8.01 8.12 10.00 $449

27 2.27% 4058 7.91 7.94 10.00 $449

28 0.64% 3497 8.03 8.03 10.00 $449

29 1.64% 8202 7.88 8.06 10.00 $449

30 2.37% 5470 7.88 8.48 10.00 $449

31 0.58% 10514 7.92 7.81 10.00 $449

32 1.40% 8984 7.91 7.95 10.00 $449

33 4.53% 7499 7.99 8.05 10.00 $449

34 5.49% 8497 7.88 7.91 10.00 $449

35 2.50% 6458 8.02 8.02 10.00 $449

36 1.06% 6862 7.89 8.14 10.00 $449

37 0.80% 4610 7.90 8.60 10.00 $449

38 0.30% 9116 7.93 7.84 10.00 $449

39 0.66% 7575 7.92 8.03 10.00 $449

40 1.21% 6521 8.00 8.08 10.00 $449

41 3.12% 7437 7.89 7.94 10.00 $449

42 1.53% 5690 8.02 8.02 10.00 $449

43 1.27% 8054 7.89 8.23 10.00 $449

44 2.32% 5379 7.90 8.89 10.00 $449

45 0.49% 10343 7.92 7.88 10.00 $449

46 0.52% 8896 7.91 8.05 10.00 $449

47 2.20% 7395 7.99 8.11 10.00 $449

48 3.48% 8426 7.89 7.95 10.00 $449

49 1.27% 6262 8.02 8.04 10.00 $449

50 0.68% 4294 7.97 8.12 10.00 $449

51 0.25% 2985 8.09 8.36 10.00 $449

52 0.15% 6355 7.95 7.86 10.00 $449

53 0.34% 5163 7.95 8.01 10.00 $449

54 1.60% 4850 8.02 8.19 10.00 $449

55 0.92% 5107 7.98 8.02 10.00 $449

56 0.24% 4665 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449

57 0.78% 10262 7.84 7.92 10.00 $449

58 0.44% 7203 7.81 8.15 10.00 $449

59 0.07% 12571 7.89 7.72 10.00 $449

60 0.27% 11656 7.88 7.84 10.00 $449

61 0.82% 9368 7.96 7.95 10.00 $449

62 0.57% 10452 7.86 7.83 10.00 $449

63 0.54% 9140 7.92 7.92 10.00 $449

64 0.21% 3035 7.98 8.13 10.00 $449

65 0.10% 2067 8.10 8.41 10.00 $449

66 0.12% 5379 7.96 7.86 10.00 $449

67 0.11% 3545 7.96 8.09 10.00 $449

68 0.82% 3934 8.02 8.11 10.00 $449

69 0.63% 4586 7.99 8.11 10.00 $449

70 0.12% 4297 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

71 1.94% 6192 7.97 8.21 10.00 $449

72 1.46% 4233 8.09 8.49 10.00 $449

73 0.44% 10083 7.93 7.80 10.00 $449

74 0.71% 7384 7.92 7.95 10.00 $449

75 3.43% 6973 7.99 8.02 10.00 $449

76 3.19% 8426 7.89 7.89 10.00 $449

77 2.19% 5010 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449ELECTRICITY PRICE PROJECTIONSLIST OF PROJECTIONS : -1 Constant 19992 AEO 2000 - Reference Case3 GRI 19984 AEO 2000 - High Growth Case5 AEO 2000 - Low GrowthElectricity Price ProjectionsElectricity Price TrendsConst. AEO2000 GRI 98 High LowConst. AEO2000 GRI 98 High Lowcents / kWh (in 1998 dollar)1995 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.82 8.821996 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.63 8.631997 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.38 8.381.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.001998 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.05 8.050.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.961999 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.92 7.920.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.952000 7.92 7.86 8.50 7.98 7.850.95 0.94 1.01 0.95 0.942001 7.92 7.74 8.38 7.83 7.710.95 0.92 1.00 0.93 0.922002 7.92 7.63 8.27 7.77 7.560.95 0.91 0.99 0.93 0.902003 7.92 7.59 8.15 7.77 7.520.95 0.91 0.97 0.93 0.902004 7.92 7.56 8.03 7.78 7.460.95 0.90 0.96 0.93 0.892005 7.92 7.47 7.92 7.72 7.370.95 0.89 0.94 0.92 0.882006 7.92 7.48 7.82 7.76 7.320.95 0.89 0.93 0.93 0.872007 7.92 7.48 7.73 7.76 7.290.95 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.872008 7.92 7.46 7.64 7.71 7.220.95 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.862009 7.92 7.37 7.54 7.66 7.150.95 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.852010 7.92 7.39 7.45 7.71 7.130.95 0.88 0.89 0.92 0.852011 7.92 7.33 7.39 7.63 7.070.95 0.87 0.88 0.91 0.842012 7.92 7.30 7.32 7.62 7.030.95 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.842013 7.92 7.29 7.26 7.60 7.000.95 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.842014 7.92 7.32 7.20 7.61 7.010.95 0.87 0.86 0.91 0.842015 7.92 7.33 7.14 7.63 7.020.95 0.88 0.85 0.91 0.842016 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.62 7.010.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842017 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.60 7.000.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842018 7.92 7.32 7.14 7.63 7.020.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842019 7.92 7.29 7.14 7.59 7.010.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.842020 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832021 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832022 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832023 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832024 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832025 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832026 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832027 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832028 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832029 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832030 7.92 7.28 7.14 7.61 6.990.95 0.87 0.85 0.91 0.832021-2030 Electricity price are kept constant after 2020 for AEO 2000 Reference, High Growth and Low Growth Cases2016-2030Electricity price are kept constant after 2015 for GRI 1998Central Air ConditionerPercentage Distribution by Efficiency (SEER) for Central A/C's in 1997(1995-1997 set to be the same as 1994)AGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 249.72.5%9.72.5%9.72.5%9.72.5%9.73.3%9.716.1%7.30.1%7.34.9%7.30.2%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.1%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.0%5.30.1%5.30.1%5.30.2%5.30.1%5.30.1%5.30.1%5.30.1%10.276.7%10.276.7%10.276.7%10.276.7%10.277.3%10.267.0%7.70.1%7.70.2%7.70.1%5.70.0%5.70.0%5.70.0%5.70.1%5.70.0%5.70.1%5.70.1%5.70.2%6.08.3%6.06.7%6.09.1%6.017.4%6.020.0%6.020.0%6.020.0%6.020.0%10.71.0%10.71.0%10.71.0%10.71.0%10.71.6%10.71.7%8.219.7%8.221.1%8.226.4%6.20.0%6.20.0%6.20.0%6.20.0%6.20.2%6.20.5%6.20.9%6.25.1%7.042.6%7.049.2%7.054.8%7.052.4%7.056.4%7.056.4%7.056.4%7.056.4%11.25.0%11.25.0%11.25.0%11.25.0%11.26.0%11.26.0%8.76.9%8.77.9%8.75.9%6.70.1%6.71.2%6.71.2%6.72.0%6.73.0%6.76.5%6.77.7%6.717.0%8.033.5%8.030.8%8.025.8%8.024.3%8.018.3%8.018.3%8.018.3%8.018.3%11.70.6%11.70.6%11.70.6%11.70.6%11.70.7%11.70.9%9.234.2%9.234.1%9.239.3%7.20.2%7.20.3%7.20.3%7.22.5%7.24.3%7.27.9%7.28.5%7.220.6%9.012.9%9.011.6%9.08.2%9.05.4%9.05.1%9.05.1%9.05.1%9.05.1%12.210.6%12.210.6%12.210.6%12.210.6%12.28.3%12.25.8%9.711.0%9.712.8%9.78.9%7.72.3%7.74.0%7.74.0%7.71.3%7.71.3%7.74.8%7.77.2%7.714.0%10.01.8%10.01.5%10.02.0%10.00.3%10.00.0%10.00.0%10.00.0%10.00.0%12.72.0%12.72.0%12.72.0%12.72.0%12.71.8%12.72.0%10.217.5%10.212.6%10.213.0%8.224.8%8.224.4%8.224.4%8.228.3%8.235.9%8.238.8%8.233.6%8.222.1%11.00.9%11.00.0%11.00.0%11.00.0%11.00.0%11.00.0%11.00.0%11.00.0%13.21.3%13.21.3%13.21.3%13.21.3%13.20.7%13.20.5%10.72.5%10.71.3%10.71.6%8.718.9%8.724.6%8.724.6%8.728.0%8.724.5%8.722.6%8.728.1%8.713.2%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%11.60.0%13.70.0%13.70.0%13.70.0%13.70.0%13.70.0%13.70.0%11.22.8%11.22.6%11.23.6%9.229.2%9.226.4%9.226.4%9.226.6%9.222.7%9.212.7%9.29.6%9.23.8%14.20.1%14.20.1%14.20.1%14.20.1%14.20.1%14.20.0%11.70.2%11.70.2%11.70.8%9.79.4%9.77.7%9.77.7%9.73.2%9.71.4%9.71.7%9.72.0%9.71.3%14.70.0%14.70.0%14.70.0%14.70.0%14.70.0%14.70.0%12.25.1%12.22.3%12.20.1%10.210.7%10.27.6%10.27.6%10.25.0%10.24.6%10.23.1%10.21.4%10.22.3%15.20.1%15.20.1%15.20.1%15.20.1%15.20.1%15.20.1%10.71.8%10.71.5%10.71.5%10.72.0%10.71.4%10.70.8%10.70.5%10.70.0%11.22.5%11.21.9%11.21.9%11.20.3%11.20.1%11.20.1%11.20.3%11.20.3%11.70.1%11.70.3%11.70.3%11.70.5%11.70.4%11.70.4%11.70.1%11.70.1%Total100%100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%SWEF10.57 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.51 10.39 9.45 9.19 9.20 9.05 8.92 8.92 8.77 8.61 8.36 8.26 7.74 7.60 7.52 7.39 7.18 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08% Incr.0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 9.9% 2.8% -0.1% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8% 3.1% 1.1% 6.7% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7% 2.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%CB Dist. 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.51 10.39 9.45 9.19 9.20 9.05 8.92 8.92 8.77 8.61 8.36 8.26 7.74 7.60 7.52 7.39 7.18 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08

# Allocation 

# Large Season

Group YEARMADE WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER 

# Division State Alloc Grp

1 1,2 7% 93% 97% 3% 88% 12% 

# 1 1

3 thru 6 7% 93% 98% 2% 89% 11% 

# 2 2

7,8 6% 94% 98% 2% 89% 11% 

# 3 3

9 thru 16 6% 94% 98% 2% 87% 13% 

# 4 4

2 1,2 8% 92% 99% 1% 85% 15% 

# 50 5

3 thru 6 8% 92% 99% 1% 86% 14% 

# 54 6

7,8 5% 95% 99% 1% 83% 17% 

# 6 7

9 thru 16 4% 96% 99% 1% 84% 16% 

# 73 8

3 1,2 9% 91% 98% 2% 86% 14% 

# 70 9

3 thru 6 9% 91% 99% 1% 89% 11% 

# 8 1 0

7,8 9% 91% 99% 1% 87% 13% 

# 9 0 11

9 thru 16 10% 90% 99% 1% 84% 16% 

# 9 2 12

4 1,2 15% 85% 98% 2% 73% 27%

3 thru 6 14% 86% 99% 1% 74% 26%

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 72% 28%

9 thru 16 12% 88% 99% 1% 67% 33%

5 1,2 16% 84% 99% 1% 78% 22%

3 thru 6 16% 84% 99% 1% 79% 21%

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 73% 27%

9 thru 16 11% 89% 99% 1% 75% 25%

6 1,2 46% 54% 100% 0% 50% 50%

3 thru 6 44% 56% 100% 0% 47% 53%

7,8 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55%

9 thru 16 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55%

7 1,2 21% 79% 99% 1% 72% 28%

3 thru 6 17% 83% 100% 0% 74% 26%

7,8 17% 83% 100% 0% 62% 38%

9 thru 16 16% 84% 100% 0% 62% 38%

8 1,2 18% 82% 100% 0% 56% 44%

3 thru 6 15% 85% 100% 0% 54% 46%

7,8 14% 86% 100% 0% 50% 50%

9 thru 16 13% 87% 100% 0% 52% 48%

9 1,2 32% 68% 99% 1% 55% 45%

3 thru 6 29% 71% 99% 1% 52% 48%

7,8 26% 74% 99% 1% 47% 53%

9 thru 16 25% 75% 99% 1% 48% 52%

10 1,2 29% 71% 100% 0% 45% 55%

3 thru 6 23% 77% 100% 0% 36% 64%

7,8 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68%

9 thru 16 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68%

11 1,2 2% 98% 90% 10% 87% 13%

3 thru 6 2% 98% 91% 9% 89% 11%

7,8 2% 98% 93% 7% 88% 12%

9 thru 16 1% 99% 93% 7% 89% 11%

12 1,2 29% 71% 93% 7% 80% 20%

3 thru 6 34% 66% 93% 7% 84% 16%

7,8 42% 58% 92% 8% 81% 19%

9 thru 16 44% 56% 92% 8% 82% 18% Seasonal Allocation Factors

Cooling Only Heating Only Heating & CoolingNOMINAL First Mortgage Rate DataNOMINAL Second Mortgage Rate DataREAL Gains and Losses for Various AssetsNEW ESTIMATE (1998 Survey of Consumer Finances)Mortgage Weight2nd Mort WeightS&P 500 Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. Treasury S&P 500 Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. TreasuryNominal interest rateRate Percent Mortgage BinRate Percent 2nd Mort BinYear Mut Fund Stocks Bonds CDs Sav Bonds Mut Fund Stocks Bonds CDs Sav BondsFinance MethodMin Max Mean0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0 to 10.0% 1.8% 0.0 0 to 11999 13% 60% 5% 3% 3%13% 1 60% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1NOMINAL New home0.0% 20.0% 7.9%1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 21.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 21998 24% 34% 5% 4% 3%24% 1 34% 1 5% 1 4% 1 3% 1NOMINAL 2nd mortgage0.0% 22.0% 10.3%2.6% 0.1% 2.6 2 to 32.5% 1.7% 2.5 2 to 31997 21% 12% 5% 3% 3%21% 1 12% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1NOMINAL Credit card0.0% 39.0% 13.5%3.0% 0.2% 3.0 3 to 43.6% 0.7% 3.6 3 to 41996 14% 19% 4% 3% 2%14% 1 19% 1 4% 1 3% 1 2% 14.4% 0.3% 4.4 4 to 54.0% 0.0% 4.0 4 to 51995 28% 36% 5% 3% 3%28% 1 36% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 128%TAX5.5% 0.9% 5.5 5 to 65.0% 0.0% 5.0 5 to 61994 -7% -9% 5% 2% 2%-7% 1 -9% 1 5% 1 2% 1 2% 11.56%1998 INFLATION6.6% 13.9% 6.6 6 to 76.5% 3.7% 6.5 6 to 71993 3% 9% 4% 0% 0%3% 1 9% 1 4% 1 0% 1 0% 17.4% 41.3% 7.4 7 to 87.5% 8.3% 7.5 7 to 81992 4% 6% 5% 1% 1%4% 1 6% 1 5% 1 1% 1 1% 1COMPOSITE -- NEW CONSTRUCTION AND REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT8.3% 25.0% 8.3 8 to 98.3% 15.8% 8.3 8 to 91991 17% 37% 5% 2% 1%17% 1 37% 1 5% 1 2% 1 1% 1Real interest rate9.3% 8.6% 9.3 9 to 109.2% 16.3% 9.2 9 to 101990 -5% -16% 4% 3% 2%-5% 1 -16% 1 4% 1 3% 1 2% 1Finance MethodShare Min Max Mean10.1% 5.0% 10.1 10 to 1110.2% 15.8% 10.2 10 to 11 1989 14% 9% 4% 4% 3%14% 1 9% 1 4% 1 4% 1 3% 1REAL New home (after tax)34% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2%11.1% 1.3% 11.1 11 to 1211.3% 3.1% 11.3 11 to 12 1988 4% 7% 6% 4% 3%4% 1 7% 1 6% 1 4% 1 3% 1REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 2% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9%12.1% 1.7% 12.1 12 to 1312.3% 13.3% 12.3 12 to 13 1987 -14% -19% 6% 3% 3%-14% 1 -19% 1 6% 1 3% 1 3% 1REAL Credit card21% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0%13.5% 0.5% 13.5 13 to 1413.3% 5.2% 13.3 13 to 14 1986 12% 2% 7% 5% 4%12% 1 2% 1 7% 1 5% 1 4% 1REAL Transaction accounts24% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0%14.1% 0.3% 14.1 14 to 1514.1% 7.7% 14.1 14 to 15 1985 14% 13% 8% 5% 4%14% 1 13% 1 8% 1 5% 1 4% 1REAL CD (6 month)4% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4%15.0% 0.0% 15.0 15 to 1615.0% 1.9% 15.0 15 to 16 1984 -2%8% 6% 6%-2% 18% 1 6% 1 6% 1REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 5% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8%16.0% 0.3% 16.0 16 to 1716.0% 0.0% 16.0 16 to 17 1983 10%9% 6% 6%10% 19% 1 6% 1 6% 1REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5%17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 1817.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 1982 11%8% 6% 5%11% 18% 1 6% 1 5% 1REAL Stocks (Nasdaq)5% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3%18.0% 0.1% 18.0 18 to 1918.0% 2.0% 18.0 18 to 19 1981 -16%4% 5% 3%-16% 14% 1 5% 1 3% 1REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 4% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5%19.0% 0.0% 19.0 19 to 2019.0% 1.0% 19.0 19 to 20 1980 5%-2% -1% -3%5% 1-2% 1 -1% 1 -3% 1Total Share100%Wtd Average5.60%20.0% 0.1% 20.0 20 to 2120.0% 0.0% 20.0 20 to 21 1979 -3%-2% 0% -2%-3% 1-2% 1 0% 1 -2% 121.0% 0.0% 21.0 21 to 22 1978 0%1% 1% 0%0% 11% 1 1% 1 0% 17.94%22.0% 1.6% 22.0 22 to 23 1977 -13%2% -1% -1%-13% 12% 1 -1% 1 -1% 1NEW CONSTRUCTION ONLY1976 1%3% 0% 0%1% 13% 1 0% 1 0% 1Real interest rate10.30%1975 8%-2% -3%8% 1-2% 1 -3% 1Finance Method Share Min Max Mean NOMINAL Credit Card Interest Rate Data1974 -40% -1% -3% -40% 1 -1% 1 -3% 1REAL New home (after tax) 100% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2% CC Weight1973 -22% 3% 1% -22% 1 3% 1 1% 1Rate Percent CC Bin 1972 10% 2% 2% 10% 1 2% 1 2% 10.0% 6.6% 0.0 0 to 1 1971 2% 1% 0% 2% 1 1% 1 0% 1REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY1.0% 0.2% 1.0 1 to 21970 3%2% 1%3% 12% 1 1% 1Real interest rate2.0% 0.0% 2.0 2 to 31969 -16%2% 1%-16% 12% 1 1% 1Finance Method Share Min Max Mean3.8% 1.2% 3.8 3 to 4 1968 8% 2% 1% 8% 1 2% 1 1% 1REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 3% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 4.9% 3.2% 4.9 4 to 5 1967 8% 2% 2% 8% 1 2% 1 2% 1REAL Credit card 32% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 5.8% 4.4% 5.8 5 to 6 1966 -16% 3% 2% -16% 1 3% 1 2% 1REAL Transaction accounts 36% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 6.4% 2.2% 6.4 6 to 7 1965 4% 3% 2% 4% 1 3% 1 2% 1REAL CD (6 month) 6% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 7.6% 1.5% 7.6 7 to 8 1964 9% 3% 2% 9% 1 3% 1 2% 1REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 8% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 8.4% 1.9% 8.4 8 to 9 1963 12% 2% 12% 1 2% 1REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 9.5% 5.5% 9.5 9 to 10 1962 -9% 2% -9% 1 2% 1REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 8% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 10.3% 1.9% 10.3 10 to 11 1961 15% 2% 15% 1 2% 1REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 7% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 11.4% 3.3% 11.4 11 to 12 1960 3% 2% 3% 1 2% 1Total Share100%Wtd Average6.33%12.4% 8.4% 12.4 12 to 131959 7%4%7% 14% 113.3% 5.0% 13.3 13 to 141958 30%30% 11 3%14.3% 6.1% 14.3 14 to 151957 -14%-14% 12 32%15.3% 6.1% 15.3 15 to 161956 5%5% 13 36%16.3% 4.3% 16.3 16 to 171955 25%25% 14 6%17.3% 5.1% 17.3 17 to 181954 37%37% 15 8%18.1% 13.8% 18.1 18 to 191953 -7%-7% 16 1%19.3% 8.9% 19.3 19 to 201952 8%8% 17 8%20.1% 1.9% 20.1 20 to 211951 2%2% 18 7%21.1% 5.8% 21.1 21 to 221950 18%18% 122.2% 1.6% 22.2 22 to 23Average4% 13% 5% 2% 2%Finanace Method Retro 4 23.1% 0.5% 23.1 23 to 24Minimum-40% -19% -2% -2% -3%Real Interest Rate Retro 2.4%24.3% 0.4% 24.3 24 to 25Maximum37% 60% 9% 6% 6%25.0% 0.0% 25.0 25 to 2626.0% 0.0% 26.0 26 to 2727.0% 0.0% 27.0 27 to 2828.0% 0.0% 28.0 28 to 2929.0% 0.0% 29.0 29 to 3030.0% 0.0% 30.0 30 to 3131.0% 0.0% 31.0 31 to 3232.0% 0.0% 32.0 32 to 3333.0% 0.0% 33.0 33 to 3434.0% 0.0% 34.0 34 to 3535.0% 0.0% 35.0 35 to 3636.0% 0.0% 36.0 36 to 3737.0% 0.0% 37.0 37 to 3838.0% 0.0% 38.0 38 to 3939.0% 0.1% 39.0 39 to 4013.51%LifetimeSURVIVAL FUNCTION OF CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERSLifetime Distribution 18.4 yearsAverage Life 18.4 yearsFraction FractionAge Retired Surv0 0.000 1.0001 0.002 0.9982 0.002 0.9963 0.002 0.9944 0.002 0.9925 0.002 0.9906 0.002 0.9887 0.001 0.9878 0.012 0.9769 0.019 0.95610 0.026 0.93011 0.033 0.89712 0.039 0.85813 0.043 0.81514 0.046 0.76915 0.049 0.72016 0.051 0.66917 0.053 0.61618 0.056 0.56019 0.060 0.50020 0.067 0.43321 0.078 0.35522 0.093 0.26223 0.116 0.14624 0.146 0.000Source:M.E. Bucher, C.M. Grastataro, W.R. Coleman. 1990. "Heat Pump Life and Compressor Longevity in Diverse Climates." ASHRAE Transactions. AT-90-29-3.Survival Function of Central A/C0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0 5 10 15 20 25Age (year)

% SurvivingPage 1SetupPLEASE DO NOT CHANGE ANYTHING HEREUser ChoicesFPindex2AEO 2000 - Reference CaseStartYear2006Projection TrendBaseOpt1Baseline (SEER=10)Elec ElecElecStdOpt430% Impr. (SEER=13)cent/kWh cent/kWh cent/kWhPriceOpt 1 19988.05 1.0019988.05System Opt 1 19997.92 0.9820007.86CB 0 20007.86 0.9820107.3920017.74 0.9620207.28Multi-Run Options:20027.63 0.9520307.28StdOptBegin220037.59 0.942000-2030StdOptEnd720047.56 0.94Growth -0.3%20057.47 0.93Comm./Resid. Choice2<-This cell is dynamically defined when20067.48 0.93user updates the % comm. and % resid.20077.48 0.93% Shipment Breakdown(Don’t change assumptions here)20087.46 0.93Commercial1 10.0%20097.37 0.92Residential2 90.0%20107.39 0.92Base Manuf. Cost$51120117.33 0.91Base Equipment Price$1,24020127.30 0.91Base Opt Manuf. Cost$51120137.29 0.91Base Opt Equipment Price$1,24020147.32 0.91Std Opt Manuf. Cost$73120157.33 0.91Std Opt Equipment Price$1,66520167.32 0.91System Installation Price$1,36720177.32 0.9120187.32 0.91value user use20197.29 0.91used value default20207.28 0.90Manufacturer Markup123% 0% 120217.28 0.90Distributor Markup109% 0% 120227.28 0.90Dealer Markup127% 0% 120237.28 0.90Builder Markup109% 0% 120247.28 0.90Sales Tax104% 0% 120257.28 0.90Std. Level20267.28 0.90Std Opt Price Multiplier100% 0% 1020277.28 0.90109% 0% 1120287.28 0.90116% 0% 1220297.28 0.90143% 0% 1320307.28 0.90174% 0% 14187% 0% 15187% 0% 16Page 1