# Appendix I

Connecticut MOVES On

- Road Modeling DocumentationI

- 1

MOVES ( Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator) was used to calculate emissions for on

- road

vehicle emissions as directed in the Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation, Volume IV:

Mob ile Sources 9

, 10 and other guidance documents referenced in this appendix. National default

values

, EPA converters ( http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/tools.htm ) and EPA guidance

conversion factor values were used for many of the input parameters. Some of the national

defaults used include values such as:

basic emission rates;

low emission vehicle emission rate modification;

I/M emission program rate adjustments;

annual mileage accumulation rates; and

diesel fractions, etc.

The MOVES model was run in inventory mode with the resulting emissions calculated for

Fairfield and New Haven Counties . Separate MOVES inputs were developed for each county.

1 MOVES Inputs

1.1 Traffic Data

The Conn ecticut Department of Transportation (CT DOT) provided MOVES formatted Vehicle

Miles Traveled (VMT) data for each county. CT DOT used their PERFORM travel demand

forecasting model to develop VMT estimates. This model consists of a link

- based network and

trip generations

, based on land use, employment, Census and car ownership data. Although the

basic equations used to generate estimates have not changed, the data that drive the model are

continually updated. Each update carries a series number and lette r designation that represents

intermediate updates

. Series 29D was used for this inventory. All VMT estimates presented in

this document were developed with the PERFORM model using estimates of employment,

population, household characteristics, and vehicl e availability data. These estimates were

updated following the release of the 2005 Connecticut Department of L abor employment data.

CT DOT has used a base form of this model to estimate and forecast VMT data since 1980.

The PERFORM model was used to ge nerate VMT estimates because of its ability to estimate

VMT by county with vehicle speeds included. It is also compatible with VMT tracking and

analysis required under the Clean Air Act.

EPA requires th e modeled VMT predictions to be consistent with da ta collected as part of the

Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) program. In the past, HPMS data were

collected for each of the following 12 functional road classes/facility types listed below:I

- 2

Table I.1.1

- 1

. Old 12 HPMS Functional Road Classes

R ural Urban

Interstate Interstate

Other Principal Arterial Other Freeways & Expressways

Minor Arterial Other Principal Arterial

Major Collector Minor Arterial

Minor Collector Collector

Local Local

In 2010 the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) , i ntroduced the new 2010+ FHWA

HPMS format. This new 2010+ FHWA HP MS format was needed to align ramp data to the

MOVES road type since the entire Rural

– Other Principal Arterial included restricted access

freeways that could not be aligned to MOVES Rural r estricted access road types. The FHWA

identification scheme eliminated the rural/urban bifurcation and used a separate item to segregate

rural, small urban and urbanized area designations. The Functional Classification Codes table

below presents the new 2010+ FHWA HPMS functional classification codes.

Table I.1.1

- 2

. The New 2010+ 14 HPMS Functional Road Classification Codes

Code Functional Class Description

Rural Urban

1 Interstate Interstate

2 Other Freeways & Expressways Other Freeways & Expressw ays

3 Other Principal Arterial Other Principal Arterial

4 Minor Arterial Minor Arterial

5 Major Collector Major Collector

6 Minor Collector Minor Collector

7 Local Local

The differences between the old 12 HPMS functional road classes/facility types and the new

2010+ FHWA HPMS functional classification codes are the addition of the Rural

- Other

Freeways & Expressways and the disaggregation of the urban collector functional road class into

Minor Collector and Major Collector. The CT DOT updated the E PA converter for the 16

vehicle type/12 road type to be a 16 vehicle type/14 road type to reflect the current FHWA

HPMS standards. This resolved the problem of the “Other Principal Arterial” being a

combination of both restricted and unrestricted access r oads and allowed proper mapping of

HPMS road types to MOVES road types.I

- 3

Mappings used in the updated converter are presented in the table below . Road Type 12 and 30

were added with the associated road descriptions and mappings; and the associative meanin g of

road types 13 and 31 were modified from what is established in NMIM and the Source

Classification definitions. These additions and modified meanings are contained within the

converter and should not be applied to any Road Type definitions other than the updated

converter. T he modified or added identifiers or the associated meaning provided in the table

below should not be used for anything other than understanding the mapping of 2010+ FHWA

HPMS Road Types to MOVES Road Types within the updated conver ter.

Table I.1.1

- 3

. New HPMS to MOVES Road Classification Mappings

DOT Created MOBILE 6.2 Identifier MOVES

Road

Type Area

Type Description (Road

Description) MOVES Road

Type ID Description (Road

Description)

11 Rural Interstate 2 Ru ral restricted access

12 Rural Other Freeways and

Expressways 2 Rural restricted access

13 Rural Other Principal

Arterial 3 Rural unrestricted access

15 Rural Minor Arterial 3 Rural unrestricted access

17 Rural Major Collector 3 Rural unrestricted access

19 Rural Minor Collector 3 Rural unrestricted access

21 Rural Local 3 Rural unrestricted access

23 Urban Interstate 4 Urban restricted access

25 U rban Other Freeways and

Expressways 4 Urban restricted access

27 Urban Other Principal Arterial 5 Urban unrestricted access

29 Urban Minor Arterial 5 Urban unrestricted access

30 Urban Major Collector 5 Urban unres tricted access

31 Urban Minor Collector 5 Urban unrestricted access

33 Urban Local 5 Urban unrestricted access

To meet EPA’s requirement s , link volumes within the PERFORM model were stratified by

HPMS functional class based on link location and facility type code. All highway network links

in the model are individually coded for HPMS functional class. All HPMS functional classes are

represented in the highway network. Intra

- Zonal trips (those too short to get on the model

network

- less than 2% of the total VMT) are assigned an average trip length based on the size of

the traffic analysis zone and were considered local road trips. The PERFORM model was

adjusted in this manner to produce data for these road cla ssifications.

CT DOT calibrated the 2009 model year VMT to 2009 HPMS VMT. These adjustments are

carried throughout the forecasted years and are reflected in the 2017 and 2025 VMT estimates.

Connecticut had an average of 86.0 million VMT per day in 2009.

Validations of the PERFORM model were accomplished by comparing model output to known

base data. In particular, HPMS VMT was an important basis of model validation and calibration.I

- 4

A link by link assignment versus Average Daily Traffic (ADT) tabulatio n was made to examine

expressway assignments. Graphic plots were used as a visual review of model output of the

highway network, with assignments and ADTs posted on a link basis.

CT DOT also used a self

- consistent equilibrium assignment process in that t he state of

equilibrium within the PERFORM model was determined by the closure ratio criterion. This is

the ratio of the summation of the loaded network travel time to the projected summation of

loaded travel time after capacity

- restrained adjustment for the current iteration. The suggested

default of 0.10 was retained for all assignment runs. This closure ratio was always attained at a

point before the maximum number of iterations specified. The equilibrium assignment module

uses volume

- to

- capacity rat ios to adjust link speeds between iterations so that links are not over

assigned.

VMT by geographic area is tabulated by four highway classifications: expressway,

arterial/collector, local, and expressway ramp. Ramp VMT is estimated as a percentage of

e xpressways’ VMT based on the ratio of ramp mileage versus expressway mileage in each

county. Ramp Vehicle Hour Traveled ( VHT ) is estimated by dividing Ramp VMT by the

average speed for the appropriate road types set forth in MOBILE6.2 guidance. 8

Connecti cut used "Travel Activity by Vehicle Type and Functional System” data reported by CT

DOT to the Federal Highway Authority for the HPMS program (see Table I.1.1

- 4a and Table

I.1.1

- 4b ). This report lists thirteen HPMS vehicle type percentages on the twelve road types

outlined previously. These data don’t categorize vehicle types in the same manner as

MOBILE6.2.

HPMS vehicle fractions were converted to MOBILE6 vehicle fractions for input into a MOVES

VMT Pre

- processor by doing the following :

The HPMS vehicl e count percentages were summed into light duty and heavy duty totals

multiplied by the MOBILE6

. 2 vehicle mix for each HPMS road type. This generated a VMT

fraction for each of the fourteen HPMS facility type by vehicle type for each MOBILE 6.2 16

vehicle type on each road.

The thirteen vehicle groups associated with HPMS observations were summed into three groups

, i.e. Light Duty Vehicle observations (LDVo), Heavy Duty Vehicles observations (HDVo) and

Motorcycle observations (MCo) for each of the 14 HPM S road types. “Passenger Car” and

“Other 2

- Axle, 4

- Tire Vehicles” vehicle count fraction observations were summed to get LDVo

count fraction observations. “Motorcycle” count fraction observations were summed for count

fraction observations and the remain ing vehicle categories were summed for the HDVo count

fraction observations group. All of the sums were done by the fourteen HPMS road types.

A Connecticut vehicle VMT fraction augmented default group totals of LDVt, HDVt and MCt

per road were calculated from the augmented MOBILE6 default vehicle fractions. LDVt was a

summation of VMT mix fractions for the MOBILE6

. 2 LDV and LDT1, LDT2, LDT3 and LDT4

vehicle classes. HDVt was a summation of the VMT mix fractions for the MOBILE6

. 2 HDV2B,

HDV3, HDV4, HDV5, HDV6, HDV7, HDV8A and HDV8B vehicle classes. MCt was the MCI

- 5

default.

EPA national default values from Table 4.1.2 ( National Average Vehicle Miles Traveled

Fractions b y Vehicle Class Using MOBILE6.2 ) found in Section 4.1.4 of Reference 8 were

augmented u sing an additional step to adjust the mix percentages. The LDV, LDT1, LDT2,

LDT3, LDT4, HDV2B, HDV3, HDV4 and HDV5 vehicle class EPA national default mix values

were localized using DMV registration data by age and national default mileage accumulation.

This adjustment was based on the vehicle counts by vehicle class and by age from the vehicle

age distribution analyses and EPA’s Reference 1 5 annual mileage accumulation by vehicle class

and by age, which was normalized to replace the existing LDV thru HDV 5 values. The

Connecticut fleet is comprised of more cars (LDV’s) and heavier trucks than the national default

and the adjustment of the national default values better aligns the MOVES VMT to the

appropriate MOVES Source Types . It also better aligns the V MT apportionment to the

appropriate vehicle age distribution. The localization of LDV thru HDV5 was based on the

MOBILE6

. 2 to MOVES Source Type mapping and consideration of how the vehicles would

operate with in the state and be appropriately represented b y local data. VMT mix calculations

were normalized to the fractional value of the default values being replaced. The complete set of

augmented default MOBILE6

. 2 VMT mix values includes a composite of original default values

that were not modified from th eir original values (MC, HDV6, HDV7, HDBS, HDBT, HDV8A,

and HDV8B) and localized default values that were modified as described in this paragraph

(LDV, LDT1, LDT2, LDT3, LDT4, HDV2B, HDV3, HDV4, and HDV5).

The net result of the additional localization of the data includes an emission reduction due to a

greater percentage of vehicle VMT being assigned to passenger cars (MOVES Source Type 21)

and an emission increase due to a greater percentage of vehicle VMT being assigned to

commercial trucks (MOVES Source Type 32). The VMT contribution from lighter trucks

(MOVES Source Type 31) is reduced proportionally to the VMT contribution increases.

The preprocessing of the MOVES VMT converter HPMS input table used the methodology

outlined in the MOBILE6 .2 Technical Guidance 8 section 4.1.4 : “Disaggregation of Local

Information”. Following the calculation of the complete set of augmented default VMT mix

values and calculation of the VMT fraction augmented default group totals. A Connecticut

specific table with MOBILE 6

. 2 VMT mix values for each of the 14 HPMS road types was

developed. Th is table was developed by multiplying the HPMS fractional observation count

(LDVo, HDVo, MCo) times the augmented MOBILE 6.2 default value divided by the

MOBILE 6.2 VMT fraction augmente d default group totals (LDVt, HDVt and MCt) for each of

the 16 MOBILE 6.2 vehicle classes and each of the 14 HPMS road types. This table was

formatted to obtain a Connecticut localized input table for the MOVES VMT converter. Table

I.1.1

- 4.c presents the results of the above calculation in the form of the Connecticut 

### MOVES

converter input for fraction of VMT on HPMS Road Type by MOBILE 6.2 16 Vehicle

Type

.

The state

- specific vehicle mix data was entered into the MOBILE6 to MOVES converter for

each road cl ass, together with county level VMT (see Tables I.1.1

- 6a and 6b) for each of the 14

2010+ FHWA HPMS road types discussed above, the MOBILE 6.2 VMT by hour data shown in

Table I.1.1

- 7, the percent of Vehicle Hours Traveled on Ramps and the MOBILE 6.2 Registra tionI

- 6

Age Distribution so that appropriate MOVES inputs could be obtained. The CT DOT ’s updated

EPA 16 vehicle type/14 road type converter supplied the following:

A daily VMT value (HPMSvTypeYear) that was input to the EPA’s average annual

weekday vehicl e miles traveled (aadvmtcalculator_hpms.xls) converter to generate annual

VMT by MOVES HPMSVTypeID;

A n hourly fraction (HourVMTFraction) for each MOVES Source Type for each hour and

day type (weekday and weekend);

A road type VMT fraction (RoadTypeDistribu tion) which indicates the fraction VMT that

a MOVES Source Type travels on each MOVES road type. The sum of all road type

fractions will be a value of one for each MOVES source type and a value for road type 1 is

required, but it will always be zero;

An h ourly fraction (VHT fraction aka RoadType) of the time spent on ramps relative to

the total time spent on each restricted MOVES road type ramp (restricted road types are

also called limited access road types);

And a SourceTypeAgeDistribution that could be used or compared to a more accurate

directly calculated age distribution obtained directly from registration data.

In addition to producing annual VMT by MOVES HPMSVTypeID mentioned above, EPA’s

average annual weekday vehicle miles traveled (aadvmtcalcul ator_hpms.xls) converter also

produced the dayVMTFraction and monthVMTFraction inputs for input to the MOVES Model.

In addition to inputting a daily VMT value, Connecticut entered seasonal VMT adjustments

based on winter, summer and annual VMT estimates t o localize monthly adjustment factors.

Weekday versus weekend factors were not altered from the EPA default values provided. Tables

I.1.1

- 8a and I.1.1

- 8b show the total annual VMT by MOVES HPMSVTypeID.

Variations in speed on the network are accounted fo r by the use of a MOBILE6 input file

depicting the speed distribution of VMT (in percentage form) for freeways and arterials only. A

conversion is made internally to equate CT DOT’s VMT speeds to the MOBILE6 speed ranges,

shown as follows: The MOBILE6 s peed distributions for freeways and arterials were input to

the EPA’s MOBILE6 to MOVES MS Excel Average Speed Converter to obtain MOVES inputs

( http://www.epa.gov/o taq/models/moves/tools/averagespeedconverter_mobile6.xls )

. The

convert er provides a mapping, an extrapolation to include extra speed bins and a conversion of

the fractions assigned to each speed bin to a new vehicle hour traveled basis, rather than the

p revious vehicle mile travel basis previously used in MOBILE 6.2 . Table I.1.1

- 5 illustrates the

MOBILE 6.2 to MOVES speed bin mapping.I

- 7

Table I.1.1

- 4a

. HPMS TRAVEL ACTIVITY PERCENTAGES BY VEHICLE TYPE AN D FUNCTIONAL SYSTEM CONNECTICUT

– 2010

Road Class: Rural

VEHICLE TYPE Interstate Other Freeway

& Expressway Other

Principal

Arterial Minor

Arterial Major

Collector Minor

Collector

(NOTE*) Local

Motorcycle 0.00% 0.00% 2.19% 2.28% 0.93% 0.27% 0.75%

Passenger Car 74.29% 79.47% 75.35% 75.41% 80.51% 83.80% 7 8.62%

Light Truck 13.61% 14.11% 15.72% 17.84% 16.50% 12.74% 18.61%

Buses 0.25% 0.10% 0.11% 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% 0.02%

2

- Axle, 6

- Tire Single Trucks 2.72% 3.21% 1.01% 1.18% 1.17% 1.04% 1.43%

3

- Axle Single Trucks 0.74% 0.60% 1.80% 1.22% 0.38% 0.78% 0.42%

4 Or More Axle Single Trucks 0.17% 0.23% 0.52% 0.27% 0.06% 0.62% 0.07%

4 Or Less Axle Trailer Trucks 1.09% 0.42% 0.91% 0.67% 0.17% 0.48% 0.06%

5

- Axle Trailer Trucks 6.94% 1.86% 1.38% 1.06% 0.25% 0.18% 0.03%

6 Or More Axle Trailer Trucks 0.15% 0.03% 0.67% 0.05% 0.01% 0.09% 0.00%

5 Or Less Axle Tandem Trucks 0.03% 0.00% 0.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

6

- Axle Tandem Trucks 0.01% 0.00% 0.07% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

7 Or More Tandem Trucks 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

TOTAL 100.00% 100.03% 100.00 % 99.99% 100.01% 100.00% 100.01%

* NOTE: Rural Minor Collector mixes no longer tabulated for HPMS; the mixes shown are from 1999 HPMS.I

- 8

Table I.1.1

- 4b:

HPMS TRAVEL ACTIVITY PERCENTAGES BY VEHICLE TYPE AND FUNCTIONAL SYSTEM CONNECTICUT

- 2010

Road Cla ss: Urban

VEHICLE TYPE Interstate Other Freeway

& Expressway Other

Principal

Arterial Minor

Arterial Major

Collector Minor

Collector Local

Motorcycle 0.05% 0.11% 0.71% 0.67% 0.63% 0.67% 1.55%

Passenger Car 78.68% 82.48% 79.48% 83.01% 81.98% 82.08% 80.57 %

Light Truck 12.14% 12.83% 16.17% 14.45% 15.33% 13.84% 14.87%

Buses 0.23% 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.01%

2

- Axle, 6

- Tire Single Trucks 2.32% 2.08% 1.49% 1.08% 1.04% 2.31% 1.23%

3

- Axle Single Trucks 0.52% 0.46% 0.64% 0.30% 0.58% 0.27% 0.91%

4 Or M ore Axle Single Trucks 0.14% 0.18% 0.17% 0.08% 0.07% 0.04% 0.48%

4 Or Less Axle Trailer Trucks 0.75% 0.38% 0.37% 0.13% 0.17% 0.21% 0.15%

5

- Axle Trailer Trucks 4.88% 1.34% 0.73% 0.19% 0.17% 0.44% 0.18%

6 Or More Axle Trailer Trucks 0.06% 0.03% 0.03% 0.01 % 0.02% 0.14% 0.04%

5 Or Less Axle Tandem Trucks 0.18% 0.02% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

6

- Axle Tandem Trucks 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

7 Or More Tandem Trucks 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

TOTAL 100.01% 100.01% 99.98% 100 .02% 100.00% 100.00% 99.99%I

- 9

Table I.1.1

- 4.c. MOVES Converter Input for Fraction of VMT on HPMS Road Type by MOBILE 6.2 16 Vehicle Type

Vehicle

Type 11 12 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 30 31 33

1 0.4793 0.5103 0.4966 0.5085 0.5290 0.5264 0.5302 0.4952 0.519 7 0.5215 0.5314 0.5307 0.5230 0.5204

2 0.0677 0.0721 0.0702 0.0718 0.0747 0.0744 0.0749 0.0700 0.0734 0.0737 0.0751 0.0750 0.0739 0.0735

3 0.2253 0.2398 0.2334 0.2390 0.2486 0.2474 0.2492 0.2328 0.2443 0.2451 0.2498 0.2494 0.2458 0.2446

4 0.0731 0.0778 0.0757 0.0775 0.0806 0.0802 0.0808 0.0755 0.0792 0.0795 0.0810 0.0809 0.0797 0.0793

5 0.0336 0.0358 0.0348 0.0357 0.0371 0.0369 0.0372 0.0348 0.0365 0.0366 0.0373 0.0372 0.0367 0.0365

6 0.0370 0.0196 0.0206 0.0137 0.0063 0.0098 0.0062 0.0279 0.0140 0.011 1 0.0057 0.0063 0.0104 0.0092

7 0.0105 0.0056 0.0058 0.0039 0.0018 0.0028 0.0018 0.0079 0.0040 0.0031 0.0016 0.0018 0.0030 0.0026

8 0.0052 0.0028 0.0029 0.0019 0.0009 0.0014 0.0009 0.0039 0.0020 0.0016 0.0008 0.0009 0.0015 0.0013

9 0.0025 0.0013 0.0014 0.0009 0.0004 0.0007 0.0004 0.0019 0.0009 0.0007 0.0004 0.0004 0.0007 0.0006

10 0.0078 0.0042 0.0044 0.0029 0.0013 0.0021 0.0013 0.0059 0.0030 0.0024 0.0012 0.0013 0.0022 0.0019

11 0.0093 0.0049 0.0052 0.0034 0.0016 0.0024 0.0016 0.0070 0.0035 0.0028 0.0 014 0.0016 0.0026 0.0023

12 0.0101 0.0054 0.0056 0.0037 0.0017 0.0027 0.0017 0.0076 0.0038 0.0030 0.0016 0.0017 0.0028 0.0025

13 0.0359 0.0191 0.0200 0.0133 0.0061 0.0095 0.0060 0.0271 0.0136 0.0108 0.0056 0.0061 0.0101 0.0089

14 0.0018 0.0010 0.0010 0. 0007 0.0003 0.0005 0.0003 0.0014 0.0007 0.0005 0.0003 0.0003 0.0005 0.0004

15 0.0009 0.0005 0.0005 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0007 0.0003 0.0003 0.0001 0.0002 0.0003 0.0002

16 0.0000 0.0000 0.0219 0.0228 0.0093 0.0027 0.0075 0.0005 0.0011 0.0071 0.006 7 0.0063 0.0067 0.0155

Sum 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 0.9999 1.0001 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000I

- 10

Table I.1.1

- 5

. MOBILE 6.2 to MOVES Speed Bin Mapping

MOBILE6 Speed Bins MOVES Speed Bins

Bin

Number Abbreviation Description

av gSpeedBinID avgBinSpeed avgSpeedBinDesc

1 2.5 mph Miles with average speed 0

- 2.5 mph 1 2.5 speed < 2.5mph

2 5 mph Miles with average speed 2.5

- 7.5 mph 2 5 2.5mph <= speed < 7.5mph

3 10 mph Miles with average speed 7.5

- 12.5 mph 3 10 7.5mph <= speed < 12. 5mph

4 15 mph Miles with average speed 12.5

- 17.5 mph 4 15 12.5mph <= speed < 17.5mph

5 20 mph Miles with average speed 17.5

- 22.5 mph 5 20 17.5mph <= speed <22.5mph

6 25 mph Miles with average speed 22.5

- 27.5 mph 6 25 22.5mph <= speed < 27.5mph

7 30 mph Miles with average speed 27.5

- 32.5 mph 7 30 27.5mph <= speed < 32.5mph

8 35 mph Miles with average speed 32.5

- 37.5 mph 8 35 32.5mph <= speed < 37.5mph

9 40 mph Miles with average speed 37.5

- 42.5 mph 9 40 37.5mph <= speed < 42.5mph

10 45 mph Miles with average speed 42.5

- 47.5 mph 10 45 42.5mph <= speed < 47.5mph

11 50 mph Miles with average speed 47.5

- 52.5 mph 11 50 47.5mph <= speed < 52.5mph

12 55 mph Miles with average speed 52.5

- 57.5 mph 12 55 52.5mph <= speed < 57.5mph

13 60 mph Miles with average speed 57.5

- 62.5 mph 13 60 57.5mph <= speed < 62.5mph

14 65 mph Miles with average speed >62.5 mph 14 65 62.5mph <= speed < 67.5mph

15 70 67.5mph <= speed < 72.5mph

16 75 72.5mph <= speed

Data used for AvgSpeedBinIDs 14, 15, and 16 are based on MOBILE6/NMIM Bin Number = 14 and the converter “Bin14

- 16 DefaultDist” worksheet fractions

0.5700 Speed Bin 14, 0.2900 Speed Bin 15 and 0.1400 Speed Bin 16.I

- 11

Table I.1.1

- 6a

. Fairfield County Daily VMT Inputs for the MOBILE6 to MOVES VMT Converter

HPMS

Ro ad

Type Area

Type Description (RoadDesc) 2009

VMT

(Million

Miles) 2017

VMT

(Million

Miles) 2025

VMT

(Million

Miles)

11 Rural Interstate 0.00 0.00 0.00

12 Rural Other Freeways and

Expressways (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00

13 Rural Other Principal Art erial (1) 0.06 0.09 0.09

15 Rural Minor Arterial 0.12 0.12 0.13

17 Rural Major Collector 0.45 0.46 0.49

19 Rural Minor Collector 0.08 0.08 0.09

21 Rural Local 0.07 0.07 0.08

23 Urban Interstate 6.39 6.69 6.95

25 Urban Other Freeways and

Expressways 3.62 3.94 4.15

27 Urban Other Principal Arterial 2.17 2.37 2.47

29 Urban Minor Arterial 4.09 4.28 4.55

30 Urban Major Collector (1) 1.62 1.75 1.86

31 Urban Minor Collector (1) 0.04 0.04 0.04

33 Urban Local 1.71 1.83 1.94



### Note 1: Road Type 12 and 3 0 were added with the associated road descriptions and mappings ;

the associative meaning of road types 13 and 31 were modified from what is

established in NMIM and the Source Classification definitions. These additions and

modified meanings are totally co ntained within the converter and should not be applied

to any Road Type definitions other than the updated converter. Do not use the

modified or added identifiers or the associated meaning provided in the table below for

anything other than understanding the mapping of 2010+ FHWA HPMS Road Types to

MOVES Road Types within the updated converter.I

- 12

Table I.1.1

- 6 b

. New Haven County Daily VMT Inputs for the MOBILE6 to MOVES VMT Converter

HPMS

Road

Type Area

Type Description (RoadDesc) 2009

VMT

(Million

M iles) 2017

VMT

(Million

Miles) 2025

VMT

(Million

Miles)

11 Rural Interstate 0.26 0.28 0.30

12 Rural Other Freeways and

Expressways (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00

13 Rural Other Principal Arterial (1) 0.11 0.08 0.08

15 Rural Minor Arterial 0.17 0.18 0.20

17 Rural Major Collector 0.18 0.19 0.21

19 Rural Minor Collector 0.03 0.03 0.04

21 Rural Local 0.07 0.06 0.07

23 Urban Interstate 7.13 7.50 7.99

25 Urban Other Freeways and

Expressways 2.98 3.18 3.32

27 Urban Other Principal Arterial 2.50 2.72 2.85

29 Urban Minor Arterial 3.76 4.09 4.37

30 Urban Major Collector (1) 1.36 1.52 1.66

31 Urban Minor Collector (1) 0.03 0.03 0.04

33 Urban Local 1.30 1.41 1.50

Note 1: Road Type s 12 and 30 were added with the associated road descriptions and mappings;

t he associative meaning of road types 13 and 31 were modified from what is established

in NMIM and the Source Classification definitions. These additions and modified

meanings are totally contained within the converter and should not be applied to any

Road Type definitions other than the updated converter. Do not use the modified or

added identifiers or the associated meaning provided in the table below for anything

other than understanding the mapping of 2010+ FHWA HPMS Road Types to MOVES

Road Types with in the updated converter.I

- 13

Table I.1.1

- 7

. CT MOBILE6 Hour Input File

MOBILE 6.2 Input File

VMT BY HOUR

* CTHVMT.def ... March 2010

* Based on Connecticut ATR Counts (April & October 2009)

* Fraction of all vehicle miles traveled by hour of the day.

* First hour is 6 a.m.

0.0439 0.0677 0.0662 0.0537 0.0500 0.0524

0.0556 0.0569 0.0641 0.0747 0.0791 0.0786

0.0606 0.0443 0.0352 0.0287 0.0218 0.0160

0.0094 0.0060 0.0045 0.0047 0.0073 0.0184

Table I.1.1

- 8a

. Fa irfield County Annual VMT

HPMSVTypeID 2009 2017 2025

HPMSBaseYearVMT HPMSBaseYearVMT HPMSBaseYearVMT

10 30,407,294.31 35,823,980.13 37,853,983.75

20 3,546,597,097.10 3,896,798,411.29 4,095,948,620.93

30 3,126,918,778.06 3,419,981,441.68 3,593,797,58 8.98

40 8,567,567.10 8,609,354.80 8,998,019.17

50 49,694,169.52 49,881,515.88 52,119,875.92

60 143,914,700.49 144,918,020.19 151,534,056.07



### Table I.1.1

- 8b

. New Haven County Annual VMT

HPMSVTypeID 2009 2017 2025

HPMSBaseYearVMT HPMSBaseYearVMT HPMS BaseYearVMT

10 30,407,294.31 32,721,319.19 34,821,446.94

20 3,546,597,097.10 3,802,797,003.64 4,035,023,377.49

30 3,126,918,778.06 3,350,999,095.81 3,555,591,222.48

40 8,567,567.10 9,084,303.93 9,634,093.94

50 49,694,169.52 52,633,311.25 55,804,257.70

60 143,914,700.49 152,912,659.69 162,246,079.20I

- 14



### 1.2 Other MOVES Input Data

1.2.1 Meteorological Data:

MOVES meteorological inputs consist of temperature and humidity data for months, zones

(counties) and hours included in the MOVES run specification . Temperature and to a lesser

extent humidity change emission estimates, consequently assumptions used for regional

conformity analyses must be consistent with those used to establish the emissions budget in the

SIP as required in the transportation confo rmity rule, 40 CFR §93.122(a)(6). 16 MOVES

meteorological inputs for the MARAMA modeling effort used the NMIM National County

Database (version NCD20090531) for 2007. 6 The temperature and humidity used remained

consistent with the 2007 NCD20090531 data to maintain a consistency with these prior analyses.

1.2.2 Inspection and Maintenance:

Connecticut’s Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) program for motor vehicle emission testing

began in 1983. The current I/M program reflects significant changes made in 19 98 and 2003 in

response to changes in federal and Connecticut statutory requirements. The inspection network is

a decentralized system with a contractor

- equipped limit of 300 stations. Cars and trucks having a

gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 10,000 pounds or less are subject to biennial I/M

program testing. The I/M program requires all subject vehicles manufactured less than twenty

five years ago be tested for emissions, except for vehicles less than four years old. Gasoline

powered vehicles model y ear 1996 or newer and having a GVWR of 8,500 pounds or less

receive OBDII inspections. OBDII is the current (second generation) On

- Board Diagnostics

electronic system that includes the most up

- to

- date comprehensive system monitors in vehicles

starting wit h model year 1996. OBDII testing involves checks to ensure the OBDII system is

properly operating. The emission tests for gasoline

- powered vehicles having a GVWR of 8,500

pounds or less that are model year 1995 or older is a loaded

- mode test (ASM2525) and a gas cap

pressure test. A 1995 or older vehicle that cannot be tested on a dynamometer or any gasoline

powered vehicle having a GVWR between 8,500 pounds and 10,000 pounds receives an idle test

. Light

- duty (<8500 lb. GVWR) d iesel

- powered vehicles model year 1997 or newer receive OBD

inspections. Diesel

- powered vehicles receive testing for excessive exhaust smoke if they do not

receive OBDII tests.

MOVES inputs reflect the characteristics and statistics of the Connecticut I/M program. I/M

data for 2 009 runs were obtained from the 2007 Annual Evaluation of Connecticut’s

Inspection/Maintenance Program 4 . I/M data for future year runs were obtained from the

Revision to Connecticut’s State Implementation Plan Enhanced Motor Vehicle Inspection and

Mainten ance Program 2

. Compliance and Waiver Rates were modified to specific values based on

evaluations of test data collected from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2007. The specific

compliance and waiver rate values for each program are shown later in this writ e

- up when the

calculation of MOVES complianceFactor is detailed.

In MOVES, the I/M program is defined by the MOVES imcoverage table and includes the state,

county and year IDs as well as pollutant process ID, source type ID, fuel type ID, I/M programI

- 15

ID, inspection frequency, test standards ID, beginning and ending model years, and a compliance

factor. It also includes a column labeled “useIMyn” which allows the user to turn off (“N”) or on

(“Y”) the portion of the I/M program described in that row of the table.

The first step in the process is to eliminate all the EPA defaults, by setting the useIMyn field for

each of these entries to “N”. The values are not appropriate for Connecticut and it is cleaner to

upload consistent of Connecticut specific data.

All Connecticut counties use the same I/M program, thus I/M mappings and parameters will be

consistent throughout the state. Table I.1.2

- 1 identifies the MOVES imcoverage table mapping

of I/M program ID (IMProgramID), inspection frequency (inspectionFre q) and test standards ID

(testStandardsID) to the MOVES imteststandards table testStandardDesc field and to the

MOBILE 6.2 I/M Header Comment Description.I

- 16

Table I.1.2

- 1

. I/M Input Program Mapping MOVES to MOBILE 6.2

IMProgramID inspectFreq testStandardsI D testStandardsDesc MOBILE 6.2 I/M Header Comment Description

11 2 51 Exhaust OBD Check Biennial OBDII I/M "tailpipe" test for post

- MY1995 gasoline

vehicles up to 8,500 lbs GVWR

12 2 43 Evaporative System

OBD Check Biennial OBDII evaporative "test" for po st

- MY1995 gasoline

vehicles up to 8,500 lbs GVWR

15 2 24 ASM 2525 Final

Cutpoints Biennial ASM I/M tailpipe test for pre

- 96 gasoline vehicles up

to 8,500 lbs GVWR

16 2 41 Evaporative Gas Cap

Check Biennial Gas Cap evaporative test for pre

- 96 gasoline veh icles

up to 8,500 lbs GVWR

13 2 12 Two

- mode, 2500

RPM/Idle Test Biennial 2500/IDLE I/M tailpipe test for all HDGT 8,500

-

10,000 lbs GVWR

14 2 41 Evaporative Gas Cap

Check Biennial GC evaporative "test" for all HDGT 8,500

- 10,000

lbsI

- 17

MOVES uses two f

ields in the imcoverage table to specify the beginning and ending model years

affected by a particular part of the I/M program. For I/M programs without a grace period for

new vehicles or an exemption period for older vehicles, this is simply the first and last model

year affected by the program. Since Connecticut I/M program has a grace period and an

exemption age the beginning and ending model years values change for every run year and the

values are calculated from the I/M Program effective dates and/or the I/M GRACE PERIOD (4

years) and the I/M EXEMPTION AGE (25 years). For example, input s for the 2009 analysis

year would correspond to the beginning ( begModelYearID ) and ending ( endModelYearID )

model years in the table below. OBD based programs (IMProg amID 11 and 12) program start

date is later that the beginning model year associated with the 25 year exemption consequently

the first model year tested by the program is the first OBDII model year defined by the program

while other beginning model year va lues that apply to older vehicles are set at the value

associated with the 25 year exemption (i.e. 2009

- 25+1= 1985 for IMProgramID’s 13, 14, 15,

16). In 2019, biennial ASM I/M tailpipe and GC evaporative test for pre

- 96 gasoline vehicles up

to 8,500 lbs G VWR drop out of the I/M inputs due to the exemption age. As was the case for

exemption age the grace period only programs with vehicle model years falling within the grace

periods’ influence for the selected run year are impacted by the grace period. The ending model

year for the biennial ASM I/M tailpipe and GC evaporative test for pre

- 96 gasoline vehicles up

to 8,500 lbs GVWR I/M programs are 1995 (IMProgramID 15 and 16) and is thus not impacted

by the grace period. The ending model year for all other I/M programs are set based on the grace

period of four years (i.e. 2009

- 4+1). A plus one is included in both the exemption and grace

period calculations to account for the model year preceding the calendar year.

Table I.1.2

- 2

. Connecticut Begin and End Model Years for 2009 MOVES Run

IMProgramID begModelYearID endModelYearID useIMyn

11 1996 2006 Y

12 1996 2006 Y

15 1985 1995 Y

16 1985 1995 Y

13 1985 2006 Y

14 1985 2006 YI

- 18

Guidance on I/M inputs is provided in EPA’s “ Technical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010

for Emission Inventory Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation

Conformity ” 1 6 . This document provides specific guidance on the MOVES source types

(vehicles), pollutants and processe s allowed by the type of I/M program and provides specific

direction on the calculation of the value to be entered in the imcoverage table complianceFactor

field.

MOVES estimates emission reductions from I/M programs for hydrocarbons, NOx, and CO. For

exhaust emissions, I/M programs can affect both running and start emissions. For evaporative

emissions, I/M programs affect hydrocarbon emissions from fuel vapor venting and fuel leaks.

The calculated imcoverage table complianceFactor field value is calculated for each I/M program

and fuel type, M OVES Source type and does not vary for polProcessID assignments within the

source type within the program. The table below shows the I/M program to polProcess

assignments with processID, pollutantID and descriptions obtained from the emissionprocess,

poll utant and pollutantprocessassoc tables provided by EPA in MOVES default database.

Table I.1.2

- 3

. I/M Program Pollutant and Process Associations

IMProgramID polProcessID processID processName pollutantID pollutantName

11 101 1 Running

Exhaust 1 Total Gas eous

Hydrocarbons

11 102 2 Start Exhaust 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

11 201 1 Running

Exhaust 2 Carbon Monoxide

(CO)

11 202 2 Start Exhaust 2 Carbon Monoxide

(CO)

11 301 1 Running

Exhaust 3 Oxides of Nitrogen

11 302 2 Start Exhaust 3 Oxides of Nitrog en

12 112 12 Evap Fuel Vapor

Venting 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

12 113 13 Evap Fuel Leaks 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

15 101 1 Running

Exhaust 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

15 102 2 Start Exhaust 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

15 201 1 Running

Exhaust 2 Carbon Monoxide

(CO)

15 202 2 Start Exhaust 2 Carbon Monoxide

(CO)

15 301 1 Running

Exhaust 3 Oxides of NitrogenI

- 19

Table I.1.2

- 3

. I/M Program Pollutant and Process Associations

IMProgramID polProcessID processID processName pollutantID pollutantName

15 302 2 Start Exhaust 3 Oxides of Nitrogen

16 112 12 Evap Fuel Vapor

Venting 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

16 113 13 Evap Fuel Leaks 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

13 101 1 Running

Exhaust 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

13 102 2 Start Exhaust 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

13 201 1 Running

Exhaust 2 Carbon Monoxide

(CO)

13 202 2 Start Exhaust 2 Carbon Monoxide

(CO)

13 301 1 Running

Exhaust 3 Oxides of Nitrogen

13 302 2 Start Exhaust 3 Oxides of Nitrogen

14 112 12 Evap Fuel Vapor

Venting 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

14 113 13 Evap Fuel Leaks 1 Total Gaseous

Hydrocarbons

MOVES currently calculates I/M program benefits only for gasoline v ehicles (fuelTypeID=1

gasoline), so the inputs and this discussion are limited to gasoline vehicles only. A duplication

of the fuelTypeID =1 was entered for the placeholder fuel (fuelTypeID=5) for possible future

use, but this fuel type was not used in Co nnecticut’s runs.

I/M programs are applied to vehicles by regulatory weight class; however, MOVES applies I/M

benefits by source type. This leads to discrepancies between the vehicle regulatory classes

covered in the actual I/M program and the vehicle reg ulatory classes that MOVES assumes are

covered when the MOVES source type definition combines vehicles that are included in an I/M

program with vehicles that are not included in an I/M program. For example, an I/M program

that targets trucks less than 850 1 lbs. Gross Vehicle Weight Rating (GVWR) (i.e. regulatory

classes LDT1, LDT2, LDT3, and LDT4) or Heavy Duty Gas Truck I/M Programs for trucks

8,501 to 10,000 lbs GVWR (HDV2B) would include parts of two MOVES source types:

passenger trucks (sourcetypeID 31 ) and light commercial trucks (32). However, these source

types also include vehicles with GVWR less than 8,501 lbs., GVWR greater than 8500 lbs, and

GVWR greater than 10,000 lbs. Only one I/M program can be applied to the source type, so

either separate runs are needed and a composite complianceFactor value would need to be

calculated and assigned when more than one I/M program applied to any Source Type. When an

I/M program is applied to source types 31 and 32 in MOVES, all of the vehicles in these sour ce

types get I/M benefits, including the HDV3, HDV4 and HDV5 vehicles that are not subject to

I/M testing. EPA guidance directs users to adjust the compliance factor (complianceFactor fieldI

- 20

value) to account for the fraction of vehicles within a source typ e that are actu ally covered by the

I/M program 16

. Regulatory Class Coverage Adjustments for each MOVES source type were

extracted from EPA Technical Guidance Table A.3 Gasoline I/M Regulatory Coverage

Adjustments 1 6 and were entered for each applicable MOB ILE 6.2 Regulatory Class and I/M

program in the tables below. The complianceFactor and waiver rate s used for 2009 were

obtained from the 2007 Annual I/M Report 4 (96.7% compliance rate and waiver rate s are

presented in the 2009 Base Year I/M Compliance Fact or Calculations table ). Future year I/M

program complianceFactor values were based on compliance rate (96%) and waiver rates (1.0%)

specified in the I/M SIP 2

. The I/M complianceFactor doesn’t comprise an adjustment to include

the HDV2B I/M program and sep arate MOVES runs for the HDV2B program were not

performed for this report. Analyses of MOVES runs for the HDV2B I/M program showed the

benefit to be very low. Further, the deviation of the VMT contributions of regulatory classes

within the MOVES source t ypes 31 and 32 favor a more conservative and less complicated

approach ; not crediting the HDV2B I/M program would not only be less prone to error, but may

also be a more accurate estimate of emissions.

Table I.1.2

- 4

. 2009 Base Year I/M Compliance Factor C alculations

IMProgramID sourceTypeID MOBILE 6.2

Regulatory

Class

Abbreviation Regulatory

Class

Coverage

Adjustment

(%) compliance

rate waiver

rate complianceFactor

11 21 LDV 100% 96.7 0.61 96.11013

11 31 LDT1 31%

LDT2 31%

LDT3 16%

LDT4 16%

94% 96.7 0.61 90.3435222

11 32 LDT1 29%

LDT2 29%

LDT3 15%

LDT4 15%

88% 96.7 0.61 84.5769144

12 21 LDV 100% 96.7 0.61 96.11013

12 31 LDT1 31%

LDT2 31%

LDT3 16%

LDT4 16%

94% 96.7 0.61 90.3435222

12 32 LDT1 29%

LDT2 29%

LDT3 15%

LDT4 15%

88% 96.7 0.61 84.5769144

15 21 LDV 100% 96.7 0.59 96.12947

15 31 LDT1 31%

LDT2 31%

LDT3 16%I

- 21

Table I.1.2

- 4

. 2009 Base Year I/M Compliance Factor C alculations

IMProgramID sourceTypeID MOBILE 6.2

Regulatory

Class

Abbreviation Regulatory

Class

Coverage

Adjustment

(%) compliance

rate waiver

rate complianceFactor

LDT4 16%

94% 96.7 0.59 90.3617018

15 32 LDT1 29%

LDT2 29%

LDT3 15%

LDT4 15%

88% 96.7 0.59 84.5939336

16 21 LDV 100% 96.7 0.00 96.7

16 31 LDT1 31%

LDT2 31%

LDT3 16%

LDT4 16%

94% 96.7 0.00 90.898

16 32 LDT1 29%

LDT2 29%

LDT3 15%

LDT4 15%

88% 96.7 0.00 85.096

13 31 HDV2B 3% 96.7 0.27 2.8931673

13 32 HDV2B 5% 96.7 0.27 4.8219455

14 31 HDV2B 3% 96.7 0.00 2.901

14 32 HDV2B 5% 96.7 0.00 4.835I

- 22

Table I.1.2

- 5

. 2009 Base and Future Year Compliance Factor Results

IMProgramID sourceTypeID 2009

compli anceFactor Future Year

complianceFactor

11 21 96.11013 95.04

11 31 90.3435222 89.3376

11 32 84.5769144 83.6352

12 21 96.11013 95.04

12 31 90.3435222 89.3376

12 32 84.5769144 83.6352

15 21 96.12947 95.04

15 31 90.3617018 89.3376

15 32 84.5939336 83 .6352

16 21 96.7 95.04

16 31 90.898 89.3376

16 32 85.096 83.6352

13 31 2.8931673 2.8512

13 32 4.8219455 4.752

14 31 2.901 2.8512

14 32 4.835 4.752I

- 23

1.2.3 Fuel Supply and Fuel Formulation:

The federally required reformulated gasoline (RFG) program began in Connecticut in 1995, and

was included in the modeling for these analyses. Connecticut had previously modeled the entire

state with a single fuel input. The 2002 NMIM National County Database (NCD) used two fuel

areas where Fairfield County was in one area and the remainder of Connecticut was the other

fuel area. The RFG website identifies three areas for Connecticut, however only two of the areas

break into county lines and have enough data to support reliable statistical analyses. The

breakou t of the Connecticut fuel area assignments were reviewed with the EPA RFG staff and it

was determined that this two area approach was recommended for fuel similarity and statistical

reasons. The Connecticut fuel data presented in the table below was devel oped based on a

weighted average of RVP sampling in EPA’s gasoline storage terminal compliance study 1 3

performed in 2007. The seasons identified in the table below correspond to the following

months; Winter season corresponds to December, January and Febr uary; Shoulder season

corresponds to March, April, October and November; and Summer corresponds to May, June,

July, August and September. These seasonal definitions relate to the Summer RFG season

defined on the RFG websites and a general understanding th at fuel will transition to non

- RFG

season values before the season begins and/or after the season ends. 13 Existing MOVES default

fuel formulation ID’s were overwritten to input the values shown below.

Table I.1.2

- 6

. MOVES Fuel Inputs Values

Fairfield Co unty New Haven County

Season Shoulder Summer Winter Shoulder Summer Winter

MOVES Parameter

fuelFormulationID 2172 2173 1817 2180 2181 1823

fuelSubtypeID 12 12 12 12 12 12

RVP 9.59249 6.96318 11.5661 9.59249 6.95517 11.5661

sulfurLevel 32.2773 3 0.6072 33.9474 37.1246 39.2256 35.0237

ETOHVolume 9.85381 9.77494 9.93268 9.78217 9.74812 9.81621

MTBEVolume 0 0 0 0 0 0

ETBEVolume 0 0 0 0 0 0

TAMEVolume 0 0 0 0 0 0

aromaticContent 19.9856 20.6096 19.3615 21.515 22.9238 20.1062

olefinContent 11.951 12.7835 11.1186 10.2368 11.8922 8.58148

benzeneContent 0.68588 0.62802 0.74374 0.694624 0.61093 0.77831

e200 53.1061 47.1775 59.0346 54.712 49.0997 60.3243

e300 86.8149 85.5865 88.0434 88.6979 87.5964 89.7994

volToWtPercentOxy

BioDieselEsterVol ume 0 0 0 0 0 0

CetaneIndex 0 0 0 0 0 0

PAHContent 0 0 0 0 0 0I

- 24

1.2.4 Age Distribution and Source Type Population :

The 2011 registration data w ere fully evaluated and assigned to MOBILE 6.2 vehicle

classification s and model year. The DMV year field is a two digit year. This was converted to a

four digit year by adding 2000 to any two digit number less than 14 and adding 1900 to any two

digit number 14 or greater. This four digit DMV year was evaluated against the year associated

with the VIN digit 10 year for VIN numbers that were calculated to have a valid check digit

value or were successfully decoded in the past. VIN digit 10 year values are now starting to

repeat, thus even though the valid VIN digit 10 year value was considered to be reliable, it is no

longer completely independent from the DMV year assignment. MOBILE 6.2 assignments were

generated from a Connecticut VIN decoder / Query Estimated Designation tool that allowed the

query of individual VINdigits, Make, Model, Body, beginning model year, ending model year,

check digit validation (true, false or all records)

. De la Torre Klausmeier Consulting /ERG

previously generated Connecticut fleet age distribution data derived from 2005 DMV vehicle

registration data and 2008 DMV vehicle regi stration data with the aid of a VIN decoder. The se

results were made available to the views provided in the decoding tool used for the analysis of

the 2011 DMV registration data. After completion of the an a lyses of the DMV data a

MOBILE62 registration ag e distribution was created for use in the EPA VMT converters and a

MOVES specific registration age distribution file was created

. Localized age distributions were

applied to the MC, LDV, LDT1 thru HDV5, HDBT and HDBS Mobile 6.2 vehicle

classifications onl y. HDV2B thru HDV5 were previously not included in the age distribution

analyses and were added due to the MOVES Source Type definit ion for Source types 31 and 32.

Moves source types 31 and 32 i nclude LDT1 thru HDV5 vehicles. Other vehicles were

addresse d by the MOVES national defaults since they are subject to interstate influences. The

basis for the MOBILE62 registration age file involved the inclu sion of the data in the age

calculation as an Age of 1 when the Model Year is 2011 or greater; inclusion o f the data in the

Age calculation as an age of 25 when the difference between 2011 and the Model Year is greater

than 24 and inclusion in the age calculation an age of 2011 plus 1 minus the Model Year (i.e. age

is 1 to 25 rather than 0 to 24) , when the diff erence between 2011 and the Model Year is between

1 and 2 4

. This differs from other age distribution analyses in that 2 012 vehicles were not

removed from the analyses as was done in earlier MOBILE 6.2 age analyses, because MOVES

includes vehicle counts an d it is more appropriate to include all know vehicles that have been

classified. The MOVES specific analyses used a similar logic except the Model Year 2011 or

later vehicles were assigned an age o f zero and the difference between 2011 and the Model Year

w as used as the age until a maximum age of 30 years. The MOVES specific age distribution

involved a translation of MOBILE62 vehicle classifications to MOVES Source Types based on

mappings used in the converters and summarized in table A.1 of Reference 16.

Counts of t he 2011 registration data that w ere evaluated and assigned to MOBILE 6.2 vehicle

classification s were further processed utilizing EPA mappings used in the converters , which are

also summarized in table A.1 of Reference 1 6 . A 1% factor was applied to the data in order to

compensate for vehicle registrations not capable of being processed (i.e. dealer plates, state

vehicles, town vehicles, transporter plates and other registration data not having adequate data to

assign a model year or MOBILE 6.2 classification). Population counts for all source types were

based upon a complete analysis of CT

- specific registration data. While a complete accounting of

the in state fleet was developed, the population estimates for HPMS Vehicle Source Types 50I

- 25

and 60 were increased when a VMT calculated population was greater than the population

estimated from registratio n data to account for the influence of interstate traffic. Connecticut

Specific 2009 HPMS vehicle miles travelled (VMT) from MOVES input files was used to

augment vehicle counts obtained directly from the 2011 registration data. The VMT based

population estimates for source types 51, 52, 53, 54, 61 and 6.2 used a n approach outline d in

section 3.3 of Reference 1 6 and a national run for all Connecticut counties to obtain a ratio of

MOVES default population to VMT by source type for 2009. That ratio was mult iplied by local

county VMT for each source type to obtain an estimate of local population based on local VMT.

As stated above the registration population data was used, when the VMT based estimate was

lower that what was actually registered in the state. This accounts for inaccuracies in the VMT

based method, for home

- based lodging of interstate trucks and for truck populations

accumulating lower than expected VMT.

Future year populations were calculated based on a ratio of CT

- specific base and future ye ar

MOVES HPMS Vehicle Type VMT to obtain a growth factor for the HPMS Vehicle Type

(Vtype shown in table I.1.2

- 7 ) group with an assumption of constant per vehicle mileage

accumulation. Distributions of source Types within an HPMS Vtype were assumed to rem ain

the same as established in the base year. Repeating the VMT calculation procedure with

individual future national runs and local VMT projections for each projection year were not

implemented, as the method was recommended by EPA guidance as a last res ort and the per

vehicle VMT increases projected by MOVES for source types 61 and 6.2 would be less

conservative than the HPMS Vehicle Type VMT approach utilized.

Table I.1.2

- 7. Source Type and HPMS VType

Source Type Source Type Description HPMS VType HP MS Vtype Description

51 Refuse Truck 50 Single Unit Trucks

52 Single Unit Short

- haul Truck 50 Single Unit Trucks

53 Single Unit Long

- haul Truck 50 Single Unit Trucks

54 Motor Home 50 Single Unit Trucks

61 Combination Short

- haul Truck 60 Combination Trucks

62 Combination Long

- haul Truck 60 Combination TrucksI

- 26

2

. Results

The Annual emission estimates presented in this section were produced by the MOVES runs that

used the inputs described in this appendix.

Table I

. 2 .1. Fairf

ield Annual Emissions

Pollutant Code Emissions (Tons)

2009 2017 2025

NO X 11,888.92 5,414.05 3,573.24

PM25_PRI 404.36 237.99 192.70

SO2 84.27 71.54 66.36

Table I. 2 .2. New Haven Annual Emissions

Pollutant Code Emissions (Tons)

2009 2017 2025

NO X 11,502.74 5,293.91 3,540.13

PM25_PRI 389.64 229.40 186.20

SO2 91.82 79.71 74.67I

- 27

Table I. 2 .3. Fairfie ld and New Haven NOx Annual Emissions b y MOVES Source Ty pe

Pollutant

Code MOVES

Source

Type ID MOVES Source Type Name Emissions (Tons)

Fairfield County New Haven County

2009 2017 2025 2009 2017 2025

NOX 11 Motorcycle 28.50 26.74 27.27 27.74 26.14 26.89

NOX 21 Passenger Car 3,416.14 1,592.89 1,034.29 3,307.62 1,585.62 1,046.00

NOX 31 Passenger Truck 3,897.80 1,730.27 1,151.16 3,646.61 1,640.5 8 1,114.23

NOX 32 Light Commercial Truck 1,725.53 846.37 581.41 1,625.54 809.42 566.89

NOX 41 Intercity Bus 28.02 10.35 4.02 27.82 10.20 3.98

NOX 42 Transit Bus 39.71 14.53 6.71 39.37 14.32 6.66

NOX 43 School Bus 30.45 12.50 8.39 33.24 13.41 9.02

NOX 51 Refuse Truck 18.92 7.53 3.73 21.83 8.68 4.34

NOX 52 Single Unit Short

- haul Truck 246.40 127.56 92.14 251.37 132.22 97.96

NOX 53 Single Unit Long

- haul Truck 28.03 13.80 9.96 28.28 14.20 10.52

NOX 54 Motor Home 14.92 10.27 7.74 15.44 10.69 8.24

NOX 61 Combination Short

- haul Truck 878.80 307.60 145.30 947.20 330.82 157.85

NOX 62 Combination Long

- haul Truck 1,535.70 713.64 501.13 1,530.69 697.60 487.53I

- 28

Table I. 2 .4. Fairfield and New Haven PM Primary Annual Emissions b y MOVES Source Type

Pollutant

Co de MOVES

Source

Type ID MOVES Source Type Name Emissions (Tons)

Fairfield County New Haven County

2009 2017 2025 2009 2017 2025

PM25_PRI 11 Motorcycle 1.87 1.79 1.90 1.76 1.70 1.81

PM25_PRI 21 Passenger Car 124.97 88.83 80.63 121.49 86.83 78.83

PM25_PRI 31 Passenger Truck 100.23 75.24 71.50 94.09 71.08 68.22

PM25_PRI 32 Light Commercial Truck 57.15 30.28 23.91 53.85 28.88 23.04

PM25_PRI 41 Intercity Bus 1.38 0.49 0.15 1.30 0.45 0.14

PM25_PRI 42 Transit Bus 1.78 0.58 0.16 1.71 0.55 0.15

PM25_P RI 43 School Bus 1.45 0.39 0.17 1.54 0.41 0.17

PM25_PRI 51 Refuse Truck 0.89 0.33 0.14 0.97 0.36 0.15

PM25_PRI 52 Single Unit Short

- haul Truck 10.53 4.12 2.00 10.49 4.08 1.98

PM25_PRI 53 Single Unit Long

- haul Truck 1.23 0.44 0.19 1.21 0.43 0.19

PM25_PR I 54 Motor Home 0.42 0.25 0.15 0.43 0.26 0.15

PM25_PRI 61 Combination Short

- haul Truck 40.21 14.01 5.23 41.19 14.22 5.24

PM25_PRI 62 Combination Long

- haul Truck 62.25 21.23 6.57 59.61 20.15 6.12I

- 29

Table I. 2 .5. Fairfield and New Haven Sulfur Oxide Annua l Emissions by MOVES Source Type

Pollutant

Code MOVES

Source

Type ID MOVES Source Type Name Emissions (Tons)

Fairfield County New Haven County

2009 2017 2025 2009 2017 2025

SO2 11 Motorcycle 0.28 0.31 0.33 0.30 0.33 0.36

SO2 21 Passenger Car 32.2 1 32.24 30.35 35.58 36.08 34.30

SO2 31 Passenger Truck 29.82 27.36 24.70 32.74 30.48 27.79

SO2 32 Light Commercial Truck 10.61 8.54 7.83 11.51 9.59 8.88

SO2 41 Intercity Bus 0.10 0.02 0.02 0.10 0.02 0.02

SO2 42 Transit Bus 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.13 0.03 0.03

SO2 43 School Bus 0.13 0.03 0.03 0.14 0.04 0.04

SO2 51 Refuse Truck 0.08 0.02 0.02 0.09 0.02 0.03

SO2 52 Single Unit Short

- haul Truck 1.13 0.50 0.52 1.19 0.56 0.59

SO2 53 Single Unit Long

- haul Truck 0.13 0.06 0.06 0.14 0.06 0.07

SO2 54 Motor Home 0.0 6 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.04

SO2 61 Combination Short

- haul Truck 3.85 0.96 0.98 4.11 1.02 1.06

SO2 62 Combination Long

- haul Truck 5.73 1.42 1.45 5.72 1.42 1.47I

- 30

3. REFERENCES

1. Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection

, Bureau of Air Management

. 1 990

Base Year Ozone and CO Emissions Inventory SIP

. November 1993

.

2. Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection. Revision to Connecticut’s State

Implementation Plan Enhanced Motor Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Program.

December, 2007.

http://www.ct.gov/dep/lib/dep/air/regulations/proposed_and_reports/final2007_im_sip_revisi

on.pdf

3. Correspondence between Rob Klausmeier and Steven Potte r

. Re: Check on Needed I&M

Inputs are supplied . May

- June 2009.

4. De la Torre Klausmeier Consulting. 2007 Annual Evaluation of Connecticut’s

Inspection/Maintenance Program. June 2008.

http://www.ct.gov/dep/lib/dep/air/vehicle_emissions/2007imreport&appendicesfinal.pdf

5. Energy Information Administration

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/main_ct.h tml or

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/fuel_oil_and_kerosene_sales/f

oks_historical.html (for multiple y ears) or

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/fuel_oil_and_kerosene_sal

es/historical/2005/fo ks_2005.html for 2005

6. NESCAUM. Development of MANE

- VU On

- road Mobile Source Emissions for 2007 and

2020 using MOVES. December 2011.

7. U.S. EPA , OTAQ

. User's Guide to MOBILE6.1 and MOBILE6.2 Mobile Source Emission

Factor Model , EPA420

- R

- 03

- 010

. January 200 2

. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/mobile6/420r03010.pdf

8. U.S. EPA

, OAR/OTAQ

. Technical Guidance on the Use of MOBILE6.2 for Emission

Inventory Preparation

. EPA420

- R

- 04

- 013

. August 2004

. http://www.epa.gov/OMS/models/mobile6/420r04013.pdf

9. U.S. EPA

, OAQPS. Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation, Volume IV: MOBILE

Sources

. 1992

. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/invntory/r92009.pdf

10. U.S. EPA

, OAQPS. Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation, Volume IV: MOBILE

Sources

. 1989

.I

- 31

11. U.S. EPA

, Fuels & Energy Division

. 1999 RFG Survey

.

12. U.S. EPA , OAQPS

. Compilation of Air P ollution Emission Factors (AP

- 42), Fifth Edition,

with supplements A, B, C, D, E, and F

. May 1998

.

13. U.S. EPA

, Fuels & Energy Division :

RFG Property and Pe rformance Averages for Hartford, CT

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/fuels/rfg/properf/hart

- ct.htm

RFG Property and Performance Averages for CT

– remainder

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/fuels/rfg/properf/c t

- remain.htm

RFG Property and Performance Averages for NY

- NJ

- Long Is land

- CT

http://www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/fuels/rfg/properf/ny

- nj

- ct.htm

(2006 Values presented on the page as o f February 21, 2012)

Correspondence between Jaimee Dong ( EPA RFG Program ) and Steven Potter ( CT DEEP ).

Re: Reformulated Gasoline Parameters for 2008. March 4, 2009

.

14. U

. S

. EPA, OTAQ

. Conversion Factors for Hydrocarbon Emission Components

. EPA420

- P

03

- 002

. May 2003

. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/nonrdmdl/p03002.pdf

15. U . S. EPA, Air and Radiation

. Fleet Characterization Data for MOBILE6: Development and

Use of Age Distributions, Average Annu al Mileage Accumulation Rates, and Projected

Vehicle Counts for Use in MOBILE6 EPA420

- R

- 01

- 047 / M6.FLT.007. September 2001

. http://www.epa.gov/oms/models/mobile6/r01047.pdf

16. U.S. EPA. Techn ical Guidance on the Use of MOVES2010 for Emission Inventory

Preparation in State Implementation Plans and Transportation Conformity. EPA

- 420

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- 10

- 023. April 2010

. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/m odels/moves/420b10023.pdf