U.S. Department of the Interior Fact Sheet FS-089-00

U.S. Geological Survey June 2000

Climatology and Potential Effects of an Emergency Outlet,

Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota

Introduction

The Devils Lake Basin is a 3,810-

square-mile subbasin (fig. 1) in the Red

River of the North Basin. At an elevation of about 1,447 feet above sea level,

Devils Lake begins to spill into Stump

Lake; and at an elevation of about 1,459

feet above sea level, the combined lakes

begin to spill through Tolna Coulee into

the Sheyenne River (fig. 2).

Since the end of glaciation about

10,000 years ago, Devils Lake has

fluctuated between spilling and being

dry. Research by the North Dakota

Geological Survey indicates Devils Lake

has overflowed into the Sheyenne River

at least twice during the past 4,000 years

and has spilled into the Stump Lakes

several times (Bluemle, 1991; Murphy

and others, 1997). John Bluemle, North

Dakota State Geologist, concluded the

natural condition for Devils Lake is either

rising or falling, and the lake should not

be expected to remain at any elevation for

a long period of time.

Recent conditions indicate the lake

is in a rising phase. The lake rose 24.7

feet from February 1993 to August 1999,

and flood damages in the Devils Lake

Basin have exceeded $300 million. These

damages, and the potential for additional

damages, have led to an effort to develop

an outlet to help control lake levels.

Therefore, current and accurate climatologic and hydrologic data are needed to

assess the viability of the various options

to reduce flood damages at Devils Lake.

Climatology

Nature of Climate Variability

Devils Lake responds directly to climate variability across the region. This

climate variability generally can be

regarded as the movement of the jet

stream from season to season and from

year to year. As weather systems move,

they are guided along the jet stream.

Climate variability results from a longNORTH DAKOTA

STATE WATER COMMISSION

Woods-Rutten Road

Grahams Island Road

Figure 1. Location of the Devils Lake Basin, Devils Lake and Stump Lakes, and

the Sheyenne River.

1 SAMPLING SITE AND

 SITE NUMBER

West

Stump

 Lake

0 1 2 3 4 5 10 MILES

Star kweather

Penn

Churchs

Ferry

5

1

2

4

6

East

Stump

Lake

Tolna

Coulee

Ed m ore

Lake

Irvine

Lake

Alice

Chain

 Lake

Mikes

 Lake

Coulee

Webster

 Coulee

Morrison

 Lake

Cavanaugh

 Lake

Sweetwater

 Lake

 Dry

Lake

Mauvais Coulee

Coulee

Calio

Coulee

St. Joe Coulee

Webster

Sheyenne

Warwick

SOUTH DAKOTA

MONTANA

MINNESOTA

SASKATCHEWAN MANITOBA

 Devils 

 Lake

 Basin

River

Red 

River

 of the

North

104° 102° 100° 98°

47°

48°

0 50 100 MILES 

48°

LAKE

SAKAKA WE A

MISSOURI R.

LAK E OAHE

9

RED

RIVER

OF

THE

NORTH

BASIN

Cando

Sheyenne

River

Basin

Sheyenne

Devils

 Lake

Fort

Totten

Cha nnel A

Creel Bay

281

57

20

2

2

19

20

Minnewaukan

7

Sixmile

Bay

Big

Coulee

Pelican

 Lake

Comstock

 Coulee

DEVILS

SHEYENNE

RIVER

LAKE

 East

 Devils

 Lake

East Bay

East Bay

West Main Bay

Bay

Mission

Bay

Fort

Totten

Bay

Black

Tiger

Bay

Ziebach

Pass

8

3

99° 98°30'

48°

48°15'

47°45'

UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA
term shift in circulation patterns of the

jet stream. As the circulation patterns

shift, precipitation and temperature

patterns also shift.

Global atmospheric circulation

patterns are driven predominantly by

variations in sea-surface temperatures.

The most noticeable of these variations, known as El Nino, occurs in the

equatorial Pacific and accounts for the

dramatic variations in precipitation

patterns along the western equatorial

regions of South America. Across the

plains of the northern United States and

southern Canada, El Nino and its cold

counterpart--La Nina--produce variations

in precipitation and temperature patterns

primarily in the winter months. However,

long-term variations in annual precipitation and temperature patterns across the

region also occur as a result of variations

in the tropical sea-surface temperatures.

These long-term variations often last

for decades and are instrumental in the

occurrence of flood and drought conditions across the Devils Lake Basin and

elsewhere.

When El Nino and La Nina are strong,

their interaction with global circulation

patterns results in strong jet-stream windspeeds and violent storms along the jetstream path. The relation between seasurface temperatures and the global

circulation patterns results in long-term

shifts in the position of the jet stream.

Therefore, the position of the jet stream

is important in determining the precipitation and temperature patterns in the

Devils Lake Basin. The variations in

these patterns across the Devils Lake

Basin over time are the result of changing global circulation patterns.

Atmospheric Weather Patterns

Before 1977

Before the late 1970's, the activity

of El Nino was subdued, and few variations occurred in the precipitation and

temperature patterns in the Devils Lake

Basin. The average seasonal precipitation values for 1950-77 varied from

year to year but had no definite trends

(fig. 3). The average annual temperatures

for 1950-77 were slightly warmer than

temperatures after 1977, and a sharp

temperature contrast occurred between

the winter and summer extremes.

Atmospheric Weather Patterns

from 1977 to the Present

Since the late 1970's, the activity

of El Nino has been greater than at any

other time during the 20th century. This

heightened El Nino activity, and the subsequent movement of the jet stream

farther north, has resulted in an increased

frequency of moisture-bearing storms

from the Gulf of Mexico across the Devils

Lake Basin, particularly during May and

June and during the early fall.

Climate Outlook for the Future

The duration of the present wet

conditions cannot be determined definitely because of the complex interactions between global weather factors.

Although La Nina conditions could

bring some periodic relief from persistent,

excessive precipitation, long-range

climate models indicate generally wet

conditions for the near future. Also,

because the factors causing the wet

conditions are global in scale, the transition from wet conditions to dry conditions

may require years. Therefore, generally

cool and wet conditions similar to those

that occurred from 1977 to the present

likely will continue beyond the first

decade of the new century. Significant

year-to-year variations in precipitation

also will continue to occur.

1,480

1,470

1,460

1,450

1,440

1,430

1,420

1,410

1,400

1,390

1,380

1,370

1,490

Highway 57 at

Narrows Natural overflow to

Stump Lakes: 1,447 feet

1,446.3 feet

(April 1, 2000)

1,408.0 feet

(April 1, 2000)

Sheyenne

River

DEVILS LAKE

(West Bay)

DEVILS LAKE

(Main Bay)

DEVILS LAKE

(East Bay)

East Devils

Lake

East

Stump

Lake

West

Stump

Lake

Natural overflow to

Sheyenne River: 1,459 feet

0 5 10 MILES

Dissolved-solids concentration, in milligrams per liter (mg/L)

Dissolved sulfate concentration, in milligrams per liter (mg/L)

ELEVATION, IN FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL

Dissolved Sulfate

97 mg/L

Dissolved Solids

480 mg/L

Dissolved Sulfate

6,100 mg/L

Dissolved Solids

11,600 mg/L

Dissolved Sulfate

2,780 mg/L

Dissolved Solids

5,450 mg/L

Big Coulee

Dissolved Sulfate

130 mg/L

Dissolved Solids

455 mg/L

Channel A

Dissolved Sulfate

154 mg/L

Dissolved Solids

480 mg/L

Dissolved Sulfate

1,060 mg/L

Dissolved Solids

2,330 mg/L

Dissolved Sulfate

480 mg/L

Dissolved Solids

1,140 mg/L

Dissolved Sulfate

600 mg/L

Dissolved Solids

1,350 mg/L

97

480

Figure 2. Spill elevations of Devils Lake and Stump Lakes; lake levels on April 1, 2000; and dissolved-solids and sulfate

concentrations for tributary inflows, lake water, and Sheyenne River flow.
Potential Effects of an

Emergency Outlet

Devils Lake currently is a terminal

lake, and the lake levels in any year are

affected by the storage and, therefore,

the lake levels in the previous year. In

contrast, the elevation of a river in any

year is not affected by the elevation in the

previous year. Because of this difference,

standard statistical tools used to calculate

values such as the “one hundred year

flood” for rivers cannot be used for Devils

Lake, and a tool that accounts for previous conditions was needed to evaluate

the effects of an outlet on Devils Lake.

As a result, the U.S. Geological Survey

developed a simulation model for Devils

Lake. This model uses historical climate

conditions and the storage available in

Devils Lake to generate 10,000 possible

futures, called traces. Assuming the

recent wet conditions will continue

through 2015, the model indicates about a

2-percent chance Devils Lake will spill to

the Sheyenne River before 2015 with no

emergency outlet. With a 300-cubic-footper-second emergency outlet, the chance

of a spill is reduced to less than 1 percent.

The potential for a catastrophic spill

from the natural outlet to the Sheyenne

River poses a threat for downstream

interests. If Devils Lake reaches the spill

elevation (about 1,459 feet above sea

level), the contributing drainage area of

the Sheyenne River near Cooperstown,

N. Dak., will quadruple (from 1,270

square miles to 5,070 square miles)

because the entire Devils Lake Basin then

would contribute flow to the Sheyenne

River. Also, water in Stump Lake (which

becomes part of Devils Lake at an elevation of about 1,447 feet above sea level)

is of much poorer quality than water

in western Devils Lake, and significant

volumes of water spilling from the natural

outlet would cause serious downstream

water-quality problems.

The potential discharge of spills from

Devils Lake through Tolna Coulee to the

Sheyenne River is shown in figure 4. The

amount of water that spills from Devils

Lake is controlled by the geometry of the

spill channel. Devils Lake can rise to an

elevation much above 1,459 feet above

sea level, and the magnitude of the spill

will increase as the lake rises. Therefore,

the 182 traces that exceed the spill elevation were separated into two groups--the

50 worst traces, for which Devils Lake

exceeded 1,460.8 feet above sea level,

and the remaining 132 traces, for which

Devils Lake peaked between 1,459.0 and

1,460.8 feet above sea level.

The top graph in figure 4 shows daily

discharge averaged over 50 traces that

exceed 1,460.8 feet above sea level with

no constructed west-end outlet. The

2 years shown are the year in which the

lake peaks and the year after the lake

peaks. With no outlet, discharge is about

2,100 cubic feet per second in late June,

above 2,000 cubic feet per second for

more than 1 month, above 1,000 cubic

feet per second for more than 4 months,

and above 400 cubic feet per second for

more than 1 year. In terms of volume and

duration, the spills would overwhelm

ambient flow in the Sheyenne River with

poor-quality water. Sulfate concentrations are several times the North Dakota

water-quality standard of 450 milligrams

per liter. As shown on the lower line, an

outlet would not eliminate the effects of

the potentially catastrophic spills, but the

spill volumes and durations would be

reduced substantially.

The bottom graph in figure 4 shows

daily discharge averaged over 132 traces

that are between 1,459.0 and 1,460.8 feet

above sea level with no constructed westend outlet. With no outlet, discharge

is about 430 cubic feet per second in July,

above 200 cubic feet per second for more

than 4 months, and above 100 cubic

feet per second for more than 1 year.

Although these discharges are not large

enough to cause major flood problems in

the Sheyenne River, the duration and high

sulfate concentrations of the spills would

cause significant water-quality problems

downstream. The effects of the spills

would be greatly reduced (or entirely

eliminated) with the outlet. The outlet

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

20

5

10

15

0

20

5

10

15

PRECIPITATION, IN INCHES

January - June

July - December

Mean

8.44 inches

(1950-79)

Mean

9.26 inches

(1980-99)

Mean

8.04 inches

(1950-79)

Mean

11.11 inches

(1980-99)

Figure 3. Devils Lake precipitation, 1950-99.
Additional earth science information

can be found by accessing the USGS

“Home Page” on the World Wide Web at

“http://www.usgs.gov”.

For mor e information contact any of the following:

For more information on all USGS

reports and products (including maps,

images, and computerized data), call

1-800-USA-MAPS.

For water information:

District Chief

821 East Interstate Avenue

Bismarck, ND 58503

(701) 250-7400

completely eliminated the spills in 98 of

the 132 traces shown on the bottom graph

and greatly reduced the spills in the

remaining traces.

If Devils Lake spills, discharge would

flow through a channel to Tolna Coulee

and then to the Sheyenne River. Because

of the shape of the channel and the

soil materials on its bottom (Murphy

and others, 1997), erosion likely would

commence immediately and could continue down to an elevation of about 1,447

feet above sea level. At that elevation,

Stump Lake is no longer connected to

Devils Lake, and the channel would reach

a plateau that has a much milder downstream slope. Such an event would

release up to 2 million acre-feet of water,

about four times the volume of the 1997

flood at Lisbon, from the Devils LakeStump Lake system. This water would be

in addition to the flows described earlier.

—G. J. Wiche and A. V. Vecchia, U.S.

Geological Survey; Leon Osborne,

University of North Dakota Regional

Weather Information Center; and

James T. Fay, North Dakota State

Water Commission

References and Further

Reading

Bluemle, J.P., 1991, Radiocarbon dating

of beaches and outlets of Devils

Lake: North Dakota Geological

Survey Miscellaneous Series 75,

10 p.

Lent, R.M., and Zainhofsky, S.D., 1995,

Variations in surface-water quality in

the chain of lakes and its tributaries,

Devils Lake Basin, North Dakota,

1957-92: U.S. Geological Survey

Water-Resources Investigations

Report 95-4102, 87 p.

Murphy, E.C., Fritz, A.K., and Fleming,

R.F., 1997, The Jerusalem and Tolna

outlets in the Devils Lake Basin,

North Dakota: North Dakota

Geological Survey Report of

Investigation No. 100, 36 p.

Sether, B.A., Vecchia, A.V., and Berkas,

W.R., 1999, Spatial and temporal

variability of dissolved sulfate in

Devils Lake, North Dakota, 1998:

U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet

FS-096-99, 4 p.

Upham, Warren, 1895, The glacial Lake

Agassiz: U.S. Geological Survey

Monograph No. 25, 658 p.

Wiche, G.J., and Vecchia, A.V., 1996,

Lake-level frequency analysis for

Devils Lake, North Dakota: U.S.

Geological Survey Water-Supply

Paper 2469, 57 p.

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2,500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

DISCHARGE, IN CUBIC FEET PER SECOND

NO OUTLET

300-CUBIC-FOOT-PER-SECOND OUTLET

0

500

100

200

300

400

DISCHARGE, IN CUBIC FEET PER SECOND

NO OUTLET

300-CUBIC-FOOT-PER-SECOND OUTLET

MAXIMUM LAKE LEVEL GREATER THAN 1,460.8 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL

MAXIMUM LAKE LEVEL GREATER THAN 1,459.0 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL

AND LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 1,460.8 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

Figure 4. Discharge of spills through Tolna Coulee to the Sheyenne River. (Top graph

shows average over 50 traces with and without an outlet; bottom graph shows average

over 132 traces with and without an outlet)