### APPENDIX C

Air Quality Model Performance Evaluation:
Evaluation at VISTAS a nd Nearby Class I Areas

### C-1 C.1 OVERVIEW

The discussion of model performance in th is Appendix focuses on the comparison of
observational data from the I nteragency M onitoring of PRO tected V isual E nvironments (IMPROVE) monitors and model output data from the 2002 VISTAS BaseG2 Actual annual air quality modeling. The evaluation will primarily focus on the air quality model’s performance with respect to individual component s of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 

### ), as good model performance of the component species will dictate good model performance of total or reconstituted fine particulate ma tter from which visibility is c onstructed. Model performance of the total fine particulate matter and the resulting to tal light extinction will also be provided as a means to discuss the overall model performance for this Implementation Plan.

C.1.1 IMPROVE Monitoring Sites

There are eighteen (18) Class I areas within th e VISTAS States (VISTAS region) as shown in Figure C-1. There are also seve ral Class I areas adjacent to the VISTAS region where we also project future-year visibility conditions. Fi gure C-2 displays the IMPROVE monitoring sites within and nearby the VISTAS region. The 18 VI STAS Class I areas and nearby Class I areas where the CMAQ Base G2 modeling results are ev aluated in this Append ix are as follows:

VISTAS Class I Areas

• Sipsey Wilderness Area (SIPS), Alabama

• Chassahowitzka Wildlife Refuge (CHAS), Florida

• Everglades National Park (EVER), Florida

• St. Marks Wildlife Refuge (SAMA), Florida

• Cohutta Wilderness Area (COHU), Georgia

• Wolf Island Wildlife Refuge (WOIS), Georgia

• Okefenokee Wildlife Refuge (OKEF), Georgia

• Mammoth Cave National Park (MACA), Kentucky

• Linville Gorge Wilderness Area (LIGO), North Carolina

• Shining Rock Wilderness Area (SHRO), North Carolina

• Swanquarter Wildlife Refuge (SWAN), North Carolina

• Joyce Kilmer-Slickrock Wilderness Area (JKSR), North Carolina

• Cape Romain Wildlife Refuge (ROMA), South Carolina

• Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina

• James River Face Wilderness Area (JARI), Virginia

• Shenandoah National Park (SHEN), Virginia

• Dolly Sods Wilderness Area (DOSO), West Virginia

• Otter Creek Wilderness Area (OTCR), West Virginia

### C-2 Nearby Class I Areas

• Breton Island Wildlife Re fuge (BRET), Louisiana

• Caney Creek Wilderness Area (CACR), Arkansas

• Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area (UPBU), Arkansas

• Mingo Wildlife Refuge (MING), Missouri

• Hercules Glade Wilderness Area (HEGL), Missouri

• Brigantine Wildlife Ref uge (BRIG), New Jersey

Note that not all Class I areas have their own IMPROVE monitor. The Wolf Island Class I area
shares the Okefenokee IMPROVE monitor in Georgia and in We st Virginia, the Otter Creek Class I area shares the Dolly Sods IMPROVE m onitor and the Joyce Kilmer-Slickrock Class I
area shares the IPROVE monitor at Great Smokey Mountains National Park. So when presenting model performance evaluation and visibi lity projections for Okefenokee, Dolly Sods and Great Smokey Mountains IMPROVE monitors they are also repres ented of, respectively, Wolf Island, Otter Creek and Joyce Kilmer-Slickroc k Class I areas, respec tively. Also note that
there are some IMPROVE sites not located in Class I areas. Alt hough data at these sites are used in the regional evaluation disc ussed in Appendix B, the performa nce at the individual IMPROVE
monitors not located at a Class I area are not di scussed in this section. For the VISTAS region, the Cadiz (CADI) site is one such IMPROVE monitor.

### C-3 Figure C-1. Class I areas within the VISTAS region.

### C-4 

## 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 -1500 -1250 -1000

-750 -500 -250 0 250 500

EVER1 CHAS1

BRET1 SAMA1 OKEF1 SIKE1 ROMA1 SIPS1 CACR1 COHU1 SHRO1 SWAN1

GRSM1

UPBU1 LIGO1 HEGL1 CADI1 MING1 MACA1 JARI1 JEFF1

ELDO1 SHEN1

LIVO1 WASH1 DOSO1 BRIG1 AREN1

QUCI1

BOND1 LASU1 MKGO1 MOMO1

ADPI1

COHI1 GRRI1



### Figure C-2. IMPROVE monitoring sites within and near the VISTAS region.



### C.1.2 Particulate Matter and Component Species

Regional haze is calculated by estimating light scattering and absorption by components of

PM 2.5 

### . Regional haze is measured by an extinction coefficient (b ext 

### ), which represents the light attenuation resulting from scatte ring and absorption of light from ambient particulate matter plus scattering of light due to gas molecules in the air (i.e., Raylei gh scattering).

Some scattering does occur from air molecules; ho wever, the bulk of light extinction is caused by the presence of suspended particles, partic ularly fine particle s (aerodynamic mass <2.5 μ m). Fine particulate matter can be composed of varying amounts of several different species, including:

• Sulfates

• Nitrates

• Ammonium

• Organic carbon (OC)

### C-5 • Elemental carbon (EC)

• Coarse particulate matter (i.e., PM 10 

### - PM 2.5 

### )

• Soil (also known as crustal material, fine soil , major metal oxides, inorganic particulates, or other PM)

• Sea Salt (NaCl) [new IMPROVE equation]

The composition of particulate matter can vary fr om day-to-day, allowing a day with a large concentration of sulfates to be closely followe d by a day dominated by organic carbon. This is an important fact as some of the components of fi ne particulate matter are more effective at light scattering than others. Since there can be such a large variability in the concentrations of the component species, the model will actually be ev aluated on a per species basis, followed by a an evaluation of total reconstructed fine particle mass. This is also a more stringent test of the model, as simply looking at particle pollu tion performance may provide good results, even though the underlying constituent concentrations are incorrect. Only a brief overview of total fine particles after component evaluation is necessary, since the accuracy of the model in predicting the component species will dictate th e accuracy of the total fine particulate mass prediction.

C.1.3 20% Best and Worst Days

Projections of light extinction for the evaluation of regional haze are based on a subset of days
for which there is monitored data. IMPROVE m onitors collect 24-hour PM samples every third day. Observations of component species on these days are used to calculate light extinction, which is the basis on which these days are ranked. These rankings are then used to identify the 20% most impaired days, or “wor st days”, and the 20% least impa ired days, or “best days”, for use in visibility projections. Table C-1 lists of the 20% best and worst days for all of Class I areas within and nearby of the VISTAS region. .

Since the ultimate future year projections ar e based on these 20% best and worst days, the following performance evaluation of the model ha s mainly focused on the best and worst days for VISTAS and nearby Class I areas.C-6DateJulianDaySIPSCHASEVERSAMACOHUOKEFMACALIGOSHROSWANROMAGRSMJARISHENDOSOBRETCACRUPBUMINGHEGLBRIG101/05/02 5WWBBWBBW01/08/02 8BBBBB01/11/02 11BBBBBBBB01/14/02 14BBBBBBBBBBBBB01/17/02 17WWW01/20/02 20BBBWW01/23/02 23BBWBBBBBBB01/26/02 26BWBBBBBBBBBB01/29/02 29BW02/01/02 32BBBBBBBBB02/04/02 35WWBB02/07/02 38BBBBBBBBB02/10/02 41W02/13/02 44WWWBWBWBWBB02/16/02 47WWWWB02/19/02 50BBBB02/22/02 53WW02/25/02 56WWWWWWW02/28/02 59BBBBW03/03/02 62WBBBBBBBB03/06/02 65B03/09/02 68BBBBBBBBBBBBBB03/12/02 71BBBB03/15/02 74WWW03/18/02 77BBBBBWB03/21/02 80WBBBW03/24/02 83B03/27/02 86WB03/30/02 89BWWBWBBBBBBBB04/02/02 92B04/05/02 95WWWW04/08/02 98WWBB04/11/02 101BB04/14/02 104BBBBBBBBB04/17/02 107WBW04/20/02 110WWC-7DateJulianDaySIPSCHASEVERSAMACOHUOKEFMACALIGOSHROSWANROMAGRSMJARISHENDOSOBRETCACRUPBUMINGHEGLBRIG104/23/02 113BWBBBBB04/26/02 116BWWBBBBBBBBB04/29/02 119BBWBBBB05/02/02 122WWWWWWWWWW05/05/02 125WWBBWB05/08/02 128WWWWWWWWWWW05/11/02 131WW05/14/02 134BBBB05/17/02 137BWWWWWBBW05/20/02 140BB05/23/02 143WWWW05/26/02 146BWWWW05/29/02 149WWWWBWW06/01/02 152WWWWWWWWWWW06/04/02 155WWWWWWWWWWWW06/07/02 158WBWBBBBWWB06/10/02 161WBBWBWWW06/13/02 164BBWWWWBB06/16/02 167BBB06/19/02 170BBWWWBWWWBWWWW06/22/02 173BBBBWBBWWWWW06/25/02 176BBBBBBBWWBBBW06/28/02 179BBBWWWW07/01/02 182BWWWWWW07/04/02 185WWWWWWWWWWW07/07/02 188WWWWWWWWWWWW07/10/02 191WBBWBWWWBWWWBWWWWW07/13/02 194BBBBWWB07/16/02 197WWWWWWWWWWWBWWW07/19/02 200WWWWWWWWWB07/22/02 203BWWWWWWWW07/25/02 206WBBWWWWWBWWWWWB07/28/02 209BWWBW07/31/02 212BBWWWWWWWW08/03/02 215WWWWWWWWWWWWW08/06/02 218WWBWWWWWWWWWWWC-8DateJulianDaySIPSCHASEVERSAMACOHUOKEFMACALIGOSHROSWANROMAGRSMJARISHENDOSOBRETCACRUPBUMINGHEGLBRIG108/09/02 221WWWWBWBWWWWB08/12/02 224WBBWWWWWWWWWWW08/15/02 227BWBBBWWBBBB08/18/02 230BW08/21/02 233WWWWWWWWB08/24/02 236WWWWWWWWWB08/27/02 239BBBWWWWWWWWW08/30/02 242BBBBBWWWW09/02/02 245BWBBBBWW09/05/02 248BBWWWBWWWWW09/08/02 251WBWWWWBWWWWWWB09/11/02 254WBWWWWWWWWWWWWW09/14/02 257BWBBBWBWWWWWWW09/17/02 260WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW09/20/02 263WWWWBBWWWBB09/23/02 266BBWBBWBWBBBB09/26/02 269BBBBBBBWWB09/29/02 272WWWWW10/02/02 275BWWWW10/05/02 278WBWBBBBW10/08/02 281WWWWBWBBBB10/11/02 284WBBBBBBWBB10/14/02 287BBWBBBB10/17/02 290WWWBBBB10/20/02 293WWWBB10/23/02 296WWBWWWWWWW10/26/02 299BBWBBBBB10/29/02 302BBBBBBBBBBBBBBB11/01/02 305WW11/04/02 308BBWBBBBBB11/07/02 311WWBBB11/10/02 314B11/13/02 317BB11/16/02 320BBBBBBBBWWW11/19/02 323BBB11/22/02 326BBWBBBC-9DateJulianDaySIPSCHASEVERSAMACOHUOKEFMACALIGOSHROSWANROMAGRSMJARISHENDOSOBRETCACRUPBUMINGHEGLBRIG111/25/02 329WWBW11/28/02 332WWBBWWB12/01/02 335BBBBBBBBB12/04/02 338WWBBBB12/07/02 341WWWWBWWBBWWBBBWWWW12/10/02 344BBBBBB12/13/02 347BBBBBBBBBBW12/16/02 350WWW12/19/02 353BBBBBBB12/22/02 356BBBBBBBBBBBBBB12/25/02 359BBBBBBBBBBB12/28/02 362BWBBW12/31/02* 365BBBBBB

### C-10 C.2 Model Performance Statistics

To quantify model performance, several statistical measures we re calculated and evaluated for
all the IMPROVE monitors within the VISTAS 12 km domain and individually for each
IMPROVE monitor associated with a VISTAS or nearby Class I areas. The statistical measures
selected were based on the recommendations outlined in secti on 18.4.1 of the USEPA’s
Guidance On The Use Of Models And Other Anal yses for Demonstrati ng Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze (EPA, 2007a).

In 2004, VISTAS established model performance goals and criteria for components of fine particle mass (Table C-2) based on previous mode l performance for ozone and fine particles. EPA modeling guidance for fine particulate matter at the time noted that PM models might not
be able to achieve the same level of performance as ozone models. VISTAS’ evaluation considered several statistical perf ormance measures and displays.

Table C-2. Model performance goals and criteria for components of fine particle mass.

Fractional Bias Fractional Error Comment

< 15% < 35% Goal for PM model performance based on ozone model performance, considered excellent performance

< 30% < 50% Goal for PM model performance, considered good performance

< 60% < 75% Criteria for PM model performance, considered average performance. Exceeding this level of performance indicates fundamental concerns with the modeling system and triggers diagnostic evaluation.



### The statistical measures were calculated for all of the component species of particulate matter responsible for light extinction, and for total light extinction. For convenience, these statistical measures or metrics, along with a variety of additional statistical measures, are summarized in
Table C-3.

### C-11 Table C-3. Statistical metric calculations.

Statistical Measure Shorthand Notation Mathematical Expression Notes

Accuracy of Paired
Peak A p

peak peak 

### O O P

−

Coefficient of
Determination R 2 

# ( ) 

# ( )

∑ ∑ ∑

= = =



### − − ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− −

N

i N

i i i N

i i i



### O O P P O O P P

1 1 2 2 2

1


### ) ( ) ( P i = prediction at time and location i; O i = observation at time and location i;



### P = arithmetic average of P i , i = 1, 2, . . ., N;


### O = arithmetic average of O i , i = 1, 2, . . ., N;
Normalized Mean Error NME



# ∑ ∑

=

= 

### −

N

i i N

i i i



### O O P

1 1 Reported as %

Root Mean Square Error RMSE 

# ( ) 2 1

1 2 

### 1 ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− 

# ∑

= N

i i i 

### O P N Reported as %

Mean Fractional Error MFE 

# ∑

= 

### + − N

i i i i i 

### O P O P

N 1 

### 2 Reported as %

Mean Absolute Gross Error MAGE 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i i 

### O P N 1 

### 1

Mean Normalized Gross Error MNGE 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i i i 

### O O P

N 1 

### 1 Reported as %

Mean Biased MB 

# ( ) 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i i 

### O P N 1 

### 1 Reported as concentration

Mean Normalized Bias MNB 

# ( ) 

# ∑

= 

### − N

i i i i 

### O O P

N 1 

### 1 Reported as %

Mean Fractionalized Bias (Fractional Bias) MFB 

# ∑

= 

### ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛

+ − N

i i i i i 

### O P O P

N 1 

### 2 Reported as %

Normalized Mean Bias NMB 

# ( )



# ∑ ∑

=

= 

### −

N

i i N

i i i



### O O P

1 1 Reported as %

Bias Factor BF 

# ∑

= 

### ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ N

i i i 

### O P

N 1 

### 1 Reported as BF:1 or 1:BF or in fractional notation (BF/1 or 1/BF)

### C-12 C.2.1 Statistical Tables



### The statistical data is calculated collectivel y for all of the IMPROVE monitors within the VISTAS 12 km domain, as well as individually for each of the IMPROVE monitors associated with a VISTAS Class I area along with the IMPROVE monitors associated with nearby Class I areas. These statistics have been calculated sepa rately for the 20% Best days (Section C.2.1.1) and 20% Worst days (Section C.2.1.2).

C.2.1.1 Model Performance Statisti cs for the 20% Best Days



### Table C-4 displays the model perf ormance statistical measures for the Best 20 percent visibility days during 2002. Table C-4a c ontains statistical performance metrics for the Best 20 percent days across all IMPROVE monitors in the VISTAS 12 km domain, whereas the remainder of the
tables contain statistics for each individual IM PROVE monitor associated with a Class I area within and near the VISTAS region.

C.2.1.2 Model Performance Statistics for the 20% Worst Days



### Statistical performance measures for the Wors t 20 percent days in 2002 and the CMAQ Base G2
12 km base case are shown in Table C-5.

Table C-4a. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days across Class I areas in the 12 km VISTAS grid.

12km bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -115.20 -110.06 -25.88 -27.46 78.49 148.33 -81.50 -81.14 MFE (%) 122.49 132.75 57.01 55.29 114.38 184.31 104.25 88.50

A p 2.48 1.09 2.16 1.54 1.73 4.23 -0.18 1.85 NMB (%) -61.28 -39.82 -3.89 - 12.78 213.72 551.54 -62.01 -47.74 NME (%) 75.88 86.49 55.78 52.03 266.13 711.04 70.48 59.48 MNB (%) -61.79 -40.68 0.75 8. 92 682.14 2051.72 -38.65 -48.42 MNE (%) 77.67 91.64 58.34 68. 09 704.19 2147.79 78.76 60.38 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.52 -1.77 -0.18 -0.25 0.63 2.88 -1.34 -19.42 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.79 3.84 2.64 1.02 0.78 3.71 1.52 24.20 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.76 6.23 5.04 1.97 1.18 7.45 2.07 27.92 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 41.57 30.49 21.39 9.96 2.95 15.38 9.86 65.36 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 144.46 63.78 67.55 25.33 8.05 80.50 8.10 186.22 Mean_Obs 15.54 4.44 4.74 1.95 0.29 0.52 2.15 40.69 Mean_Pred 6.02 2.68 4.55 1.70 0.92 3.40 0.82 21.27 Std_Dev_Obs 7.06 3.93 2. 50 1.09 0.32 1.78 1.68 10.12 Std_Dev_Pre 10.74 6.01 5. 33 1.91 0.97 6.47 0.92 20.63

Variance 217.83 38.82 25.35 3.88 1.40 55.56 4.29 779.65

R 2 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.09

BF 0.38 0.59 1.01 1.08 7.82 4.57 0.60 0.52

N 490 490 490 490 490 490 490 490

### C-13 Table C-4b. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Breton Island Class I

area.

BRET bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -152.90 -179.64 -82.67 -69.08 14.14 27.20 -80.87 -139.99 MFE (%) 152.90 181.21 83.72 69.19 126.36 166.60 91.94 139.99

A p -0.74 -0.69 -0.54 -0.46 -0.25 -0.47 -0.46 -0.66 NMB (%) -86.23 -94.40 -54.53 - 50.86 -14.55 -47.92 -56.39 -81.07 NME (%) 86.23 95.50 55.38 50.96 132.14 111.15 59.69 81.07 MNB (%) -85.67 -90.70 -53.78 - 48.24 454.91 -71.19 -41.48 -81.47 MNE (%) 85.67 92.44 54.89 48.36 519.05 76.78 71.91 81.47 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -15.48 -2.76 -1.40 -0.81 -0.05 -0.39 -1.98 -32.99 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.48 2.80 1.43 0.82 0.43 0.90 2.10 32.99 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 16.76 3.21 1.79 1.04 0.57 1.25 2.40 33.48 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 28.83 7.28 6.17 2.75 1.61 3.81 7.45 48.75 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 7.43 2.23 2.86 1.48 1.21 2.03 4.00 16.64 Mean_Obs 17.95 2.93 2.57 1.60 0.33 0.81 3.51 40.69 Mean_Pred 2.47 0.16 1.17 0.79 0.28 0.42 1.53 7.70 Std_Dev_Obs 7.00 1.50 1. 40 0.76 0.41 1.00 1.66 6.09 Std_Dev_Pre 2.24 0.49 0. 90 0.46 0.31 0.51 1.06 4.97

Variance 280.94 10.28 3.21 1.08 0.32 1.57 5.76 1120.72

R 2 0.12 0.04 0.34 0.25 0.08 0.05 0.31 0.22

BF 0.14 0.09 0.46 0.52 5.55 0.15 0.59 0.19

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-4c. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Brigantine Class I

area.

BRIG bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -118.49 -85.82 1.36 36.59 68.09 88.47 -126.19 -75.43 MFE (%) 126.68 116.82 57.68 75.89 107.44 176.33 126.19 94.46

A p 0.14 0.09 7.20 4.77 2.48 -0.61 -0.70 1.14 NMB (%) -66.46 -29.38 124.33 131. 07 204.17 -11.47 -76.73 -39.27 NME (%) 75.91 76.29 157.87 159.04 240.37 164.42 76.73 67.56 MNB (%) -65.18 -24.93 99.46 309. 60 278.12 3530.32 -75.55 -35.94 MNE (%) 75.82 86.26 138.10 336. 38 303.32 3647.08 75.55 69.99 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -10.86 -1.07 5.36 2.69 0.48 -0.23 -3.00 -17.47 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.41 2.77 6.81 3.26 0.56 3.30 3.00 30.05 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.51 3.51 16.44 6.75 0.74 4.55 3.49 34.13 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 27.59 11.88 8.23 4.39 0.62 12.00 8.61 52.91 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 31.45 12.90 67.55 25.33 2.17 4.65 2.62 113.43 Mean_Obs 16.35 3.63 4.31 2.05 0.23 2.00 3.90 44.48 Mean_Pred 5.48 2.56 9.67 4.74 0.71 1.77 0.91 27.01 Std_Dev_Obs 5.74 2.26 1. 88 1.17 0.13 3.83 1.82 6.00 Std_Dev_Pre 7.08 3.74 16. 57 6.23 0.54 1.28 0.76 28.02

Variance 182.58 12.31 270.43 45.58 0.55 20.74 12.15 1165.02

R 2 0.04 0.19 0.16 0.00 0.03 0.29 0.04 0.06

BF 0.35 0.75 1.99 3.91 3.78 14.85 0.24 0.64

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-14 Table C-4d. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Caney Creek Class I

area.

CACR bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -98.27 -48.24 12.50 - 32.03 121.94 192.93 -80.27 -54.72 MFE (%) 115.70 107.35 51.24 50.47 127.27 192.93 89.10 68.41

A p 0.74 0.60 -0.05 -0.05 2.68 10.90 -0.73 0.75 NMB (%) -49.86 -8.82 17.09 - 26.56 422.09 6340.14 -64.97 -32.38 NME (%) 75.74 92.86 46.05 37. 07 428.84 6340.14 67.42 50.84 MNB (%) -48.65 38.51 36.27 -15. 41 2407.02 24672.54 -48.65 -32.00 MNE (%) 71.78 132.02 63.94 43. 59 2411.82 24672.54 60.37 49.96 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -4.15 -0.52 0.77 -0.45 1.23 3.55 -1.32 -10.93 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 6.30 5.44 2.07 0.63 1.25 3.55 1.37 17.16 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 7.49 7.61 2.34 0.73 1.45 4.64 1.92 19.73 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.58 18.62 9.59 2.61 0.76 1.20 5.41 42.26 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 27.18 29.87 9.11 2.48 2.80 14.24 1.45 73.85 Mean_Obs 8.32 5.86 4.49 1.70 0.29 0.06 2.04 33.75 Mean_Pred 4.17 5.34 5.25 1.25 1.52 3.61 0.71 22.82 Std_Dev_Obs 3.75 5.22 2. 15 0.67 0.20 0.25 1.41 7.14 Std_Dev_Pre 6.91 7.23 2. 63 0.61 0.74 3.03 0.35 17.54

Variance 56.13 57.90 5.47 0.53 2.09 21.58 3.69 389.25

R 2 0.17 0.06 0.32 0.34 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.09

BF 0.51 1.39 1.36 0.85 25.07 45.04 0.51 0.68

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-4e. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Chassahowitzka Class I area.

CHAS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -97.65 -185.48 -62.20 -34.33 75.31 179.65 -77.10 -71.12 MFE (%) 117.54 185.48 67.73 48.95 85.36 190.74 79.50 77.64

A p 1.16 -0.84 -0.23 0.11 0.30 1.00 -0.54 0.48 NMB (%) -49.52 -95.94 -46.59 - 25.06 104.88 1176.77 -58.67 -45.69 NME (%) 77.32 95.94 51.53 41. 99 124.45 1297.43 59.97 53.66 MNB (%) -46.09 -95.88 -41.14 -19.10 338.45 472.23 -51.69 -46.07 MNE (%) 79.70 95.88 47.39 43.56 346.64 522.75 54.46 53.71 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.50 -4.25 -2.65 -0.59 0.36 6.75 -2.10 -20.64 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.27 4.25 2.94 1.00 0.43 7.45 2.15 24.23 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.07 4.48 3.50 1.22 0.53 8.82 2.61 26.26 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 24.80 8.90 8.38 3.78 1.14 10.05 7.40 52.76 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 53.53 1.41 6.45 4.19 1.48 20.13 3.39 77.91 Mean_Obs 17.16 4.43 5.70 2.37 0.34 0.57 3.58 45.17 Mean_Pred 8.66 0.18 3.04 1.78 0.70 7.33 1.48 24.53 Std_Dev_Obs 5.32 1.45 1. 58 0.59 0.29 2.15 1.49 6.38 Std_Dev_Pre 12.45 0.31 1. 36 0.85 0.26 4.94 0.54 17.53

Variance 227.25 20.04 12.27 1.48 0.29 77.76 6.81 689.51

R 2 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.10

BF 0.54 0.04 0.59 0.81 4.38 0.78 0.48 0.54

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-15 Table C-4f. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cohutta Class I area.

COHU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -87.92 -80.72 -5.85 - 24.92 92.95 198.40 -43.63 -64.47 MFE (%) 106.08 104.25 41.26 44.71 108.35 198.40 89.95 70.27

A p 0.57 -0.18 0.54 0.03 1.38 23.19 -0.88 -0.01 NMB (%) -43.70 -38.79 8.59 - 16.07 189.67 16676.44 -71.13 -41.05 NME (%) 69.09 67.47 40.33 33. 25 204.65 16676.44 82.18 47.02 MNB (%) -45.05 -35.48 8.54 - 12.98 451.68 10913.35 -9.19 -41.72 MNE (%) 71.18 67.60 45.10 38. 67 462.35 10913.35 84.08 48.37 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -7.46 -1.79 0.39 -0.30 0.51 2.40 -0.91 -16.67 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.80 3.12 1.82 0.61 0.55 2.40 1.05 19.10 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.95 4.15 2.32 0.70 0.73 2.97 2.24 21.31 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 24.33 14.54 6.69 3.25 0.84 0.28 8.34 51.42 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 38.12 11.93 10.33 3.34 1.99 6.75 0.99 50.69 Mean_Obs 17.08 4.62 4.52 1.84 0.27 0.01 1.27 40.62 Mean_Pred 9.62 2.83 4.91 1.55 0.78 2.41 0.37 23.94 Std_Dev_Obs 4.94 3.06 1. 37 0.73 0.22 0.06 2.05 6.33 Std_Dev_Pre 10.77 3.50 2. 79 0.84 0.51 1.80 0.23 14.43

Variance 167.74 17.20 5.39 0.49 0.53 8.81 5.01 453.92

R 2 0.04 0.10 0.30 0.44 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.12

BF 0.55 0.65 1.09 0.87 5.52 11.01 0.86 0.58

N 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20



### Table C-4g. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Dolly Sods Class I

area.

DOSO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -107.37 -62.64 -78.22 -73.22 104.58 200.00 -84.35 -97.79 MFE (%) 109.37 98.95 78.34 76.44 110.05 200.00 127.36 97.79

A p -0.04 0.45 -0.52 -0.47 2.47 -999.00 -0.79 -0.21 NMB (%) -62.79 -24.54 -57.40 - 49.56 317.65 -999.00 -79.16 -61.85 NME (%) 65.70 64.67 57.44 51. 87 321.71 -999.00 84.37 61.85 MNB (%) -64.90 -18.19 -52.99 - 48.25 926.54 -999.00 20.22 -63.26 MNE (%) 67.01 69.59 53.11 52. 13 931.32 -999.00 143.07 63.26 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.23 -0.74 -2.55 -0.92 0.45 0.82 -0.56 -20.58 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 8.61 1.96 2.55 0.96 0.46 0.82 0.60 20.58 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.90 2.68 3.16 1.10 0.59 1.02 0.80 21.54 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 23.24 9.02 9.02 3.44 0.43 0.00 1.93 43.68 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 22.29 13.11 4.36 1.82 1.49 2.76 0.41 34.63 Mean_Obs 13.11 3.03 4.43 1.85 0.14 0.00 0.71 33.27 Mean_Pred 4.88 2.29 1.89 0.93 0.59 0.82 0.15 12.69 Std_Dev_Obs 5.34 2.39 2. 10 0.76 0.11 0.00 0.61 7.00 Std_Dev_Pre 5.28 3.02 1. 13 0.52 0.40 0.63 0.10 7.57

Variance 98.09 7.20 9.97 1.20 0.34 1.05 0.64 464.10

R 2 0.19 0.30 0.18 0.35 0.05 -999.00 0.11 0.36

BF 0.35 0.82 0.47 0.52 10.27 0.00 1.20 0.37

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

### C-16 Table C-4h. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cohutta Class I area.

EVER bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -165.78 -199.82 -8.55 - 6.99 -58.20 -10.33 -119.13 -131.93 MFE (%) 165.78 199.82 43.15 52.61 105.18 127.64 119.13 131.93

A p -0.61 -1.00 -0.18 -0.17 -0.85 -0.67 -0.64 -0.55 NMB (%) -88.57 -99.95 -5.12 -12. 84 -69.39 -58.59 -76.84 -78.61 NME (%) 88.57 99.95 40.75 47.33 84.41 98.24 76.84 78.61 MNB (%) -89.70 -99.95 3.63 -2 .76 -1.43 -56.94 -72.48 -78.57 MNE (%) 89.70 99.95 40.75 41.91 96.80 57.89 72.48 78.57 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.06 -2.04 -0.15 -0.12 -0.27 -0.74 -1.80 -23.62 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 8.06 2.04 1.21 0.45 0.33 1.24 1.80 23.62 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 8.36 2.15 1.47 0.64 0.52 1.75 2.03 23.93 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.39 3.74 5.72 2.89 1.84 4.83 3.91 32.94 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 5.54 0.02 4.71 2.39 0.27 1.57 1.40 14.82 Mean_Obs 9.10 2.04 2.96 0.95 0.39 1.26 2.35 30.05 Mean_Pred 1.04 0.00 2.81 0.83 0.12 0.52 0.54 6.43 Std_Dev_Obs 2.57 0.68 0. 96 0.63 0.43 1.44 0.89 2.39 Std_Dev_Pre 1.26 0.00 1. 05 0.60 0.06 0.39 0.30 3.22

Variance 69.82 4.61 2.16 0.41 0.27 3.07 4.13 572.47

R 2 0.23 0.00 0.01 0.22 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.00

BF 0.10 0.00 1.04 0.93 0.99 0.30 0.28 0.21

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-4i. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Great Smoky Mountains Class I area.

GRSM bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -94.17 -85.46 4.96 -7 .50 138.59 178.02 -92.16 -63.98 MFE (%) 106.13 121.52 35.87 46.24 146.55 192.47 100.92 73.86

A p 1.26 0.42 0.48 0.80 5.01 1.79 -0.80 1.12 NMB (%) -46.57 -28.06 17.14 5.51 631.35 909.08 -69.24 -38.72 NME (%) 73.85 89.51 44.67 47. 10 648.27 1026.45 72.85 55.67 MNB (%) -43.83 -18.32 18.89 8. 54 1821.12 -1.90 -53.08 -37.82 MNE (%) 82.10 96.66 43.55 48.94 1826.58 88.88 64.36 58.76 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.72 -1.12 0.73 0.11 0.97 2.19 -0.79 -16.09 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.83 3.57 1.91 0.96 1.00 2.48 0.83 23.13 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 17.59 4.96 2.88 1.22 1.31 3.29 1.09 27.06 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 31.91 10.95 8.95 3.38 0.69 3.59 3.75 52.59 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 72.10 15.57 13.26 6.09 4.17 10.01 0.77 111.51 Mean_Obs 18.72 3.99 4.27 2.03 0.15 0.24 1.14 41.55 Mean_Pred 10.00 2.87 5.00 2.15 1.13 2.43 0.35 25.46 Std_Dev_Obs 8.30 3.09 1. 77 0.72 0.17 0.84 0.78 9.77 Std_Dev_Pre 14.66 4.40 3. 10 1.33 0.89 2.27 0.21 21.63

Variance 309.58 24.64 8.30 1.48 1.70 10.85 1.19 732.11

R 2 0.03 0.03 0.18 0.16 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03

BF 0.56 0.82 1.19 1.09 19.21 0.09 0.47 0.62

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-17 Table C-4j. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Hercules Glade Class
I area.

HEGL bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -132.82 -81.46 -11.53 -30.28 144.10 200.00 -32.67 -47.04 MFE (%) 132.82 103.95 40.05 41.82 144.10 200.00 57.88 60.54

A p -0.63 1.76 0.17 -0.04 8.46 -999.00 -0.35 0.89 NMB (%) -77.98 -20.11 -4.87 -21. 83 720.14 -999.00 -28.19 -28.48 NME (%) 77.98 82.73 35.75 33. 02 720.14 -999.00 48.77 46.61 MNB (%) -78.28 -32.69 0.82 -20. 20 911.74 -999.00 -11.82 -29.64 MNE (%) 78.28 78.59 39.89 33. 88 911.74 -999.00 51.51 47.04 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.24 -1.15 -0.27 -0.53 2.20 8.53 -0.67 -11.19 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.24 4.73 2.01 0.80 2.20 8.53 1.16 18.31 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.68 7.54 2.51 0.94 2.56 10.14 1.47 20.11 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 17.95 13.33 9.21 3.73 0.57 0.00 5.14 44.20 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 6.62 36.84 10.79 3.57 5.40 22.46 3.33 83.40 Mean_Obs 11.85 5.71 5.61 2.41 0.31 0.00 2.39 39.28 Mean_Pred 2.61 4.56 5.34 1.88 2.50 8.53 1.71 28.09 Std_Dev_Obs 3.36 3.53 1. 88 0.74 0.13 0.00 1.10 3.87 Std_Dev_Pre 1.80 8.16 2. 56 0.86 1.32 5.60 0.81 18.23

Variance 93.67 56.85 6.31 0.88 6.57 102.75 2.15 404.22

R 2 0.23 0.13 0.14 0.27 0.02 -999.00 0.00 0.15

BF 0.22 0.67 1.01 0.80 10.12 0.00 0.88 0.70

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-4k. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the James River Face Class I area.

JARI bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -91.09 -83.18 -65.51 -65.84 84.39 199.75 -132.42 -83.60 MFE (%) 100.63 118.95 69.44 67.77 84.97 199.75 132.42 87.18

A p -0.09 0.75 -0.67 -0.72 0.88 330.57 -0.77 0.09 NMB (%) -47.44 -45.84 -49.87 - 54.56 146.02 291595.78 -80.40 -52.48 NME (%) 59.51 92.91 53.49 55. 58 146.61 291595.78 80.40 56.50 MNB (%) -51.16 -4.56 -44.70 - 45.74 216.63 6626.39 -78.95 -52.91 MNE (%) 63.28 112.94 49.69 47. 91 217.19 6626.39 78.95 57.42 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -10.04 -2.26 -3.11 -1.88 0.35 2.00 -1.05 -25.36 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.59 4.59 3.34 1.91 0.35 2.00 1.05 27.30 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.16 5.71 4.56 2.62 0.43 2.45 1.18 29.72 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 41.57 10.56 21.39 9.96 0.69 0.02 2.90 60.15 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 37.76 18.46 6.97 2.82 1.29 5.24 0.67 65.41 Mean_Obs 21.16 4.94 6.24 3.44 0.24 0.00 1.31 48.33 Mean_Pred 11.12 2.67 3.13 1.56 0.59 2.00 0.26 22.97 Std_Dev_Obs 7.70 2.48 3. 83 1.96 0.15 0.00 0.61 7.18 Std_Dev_Pre 11.63 4.04 1. 82 0.58 0.26 1.45 0.15 16.35

Variance 200.48 32.55 20.77 6.87 0.18 6.01 1.39 883.03

R 2 0.25 0.10 0.21 0.10 0.09 0.02 0.36 0.08

BF 0.49 0.95 0.55 0.54 3.17 2.92 0.21 0.47

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-18 Table C-4l. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Linville Gorge Class I

area.

LIGO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -115.63 -95.20 -45.21 -44.22 104.52 181.01 -105.22 -97.19 MFE (%) 116.61 115.72 51.50 50.16 115.41 181.18 119.65 97.19

A p -0.44 -0.72 0.31 -0.09 1.23 2.10 -0.83 -0.42 NMB (%) -69.37 -53.30 -31.24 - 31.42 230.32 1115.81 -77.59 -63.14 NME (%) 69.82 71.17 42.01 38. 50 251.11 1117.78 78.96 63.14 MNB (%) -69.20 -43.30 -30.96 -29.43 510.03 884.70 -45.89 -63.32 MNE (%) 70.23 74.23 38.11 36.49 519.16 885.91 88.23 63.32 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.06 -1.22 -1.42 -0.68 0.42 0.97 -0.72 -21.62 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.12 1.63 1.90 0.83 0.46 0.97 0.74 21.62 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 10.48 2.33 2.46 1.05 0.59 1.28 1.00 22.72 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 25.33 11.62 8.77 4.76 0.70 0.98 3.43 41.91 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.31 3.29 11.47 4.35 1.56 3.06 0.57 24.48 Mean_Obs 13.05 2.29 4.53 2.16 0.18 0.09 0.93 34.24 Mean_Pred 4.00 1.07 3.12 1.48 0.60 1.05 0.21 12.62 Std_Dev_Obs 5.92 2.24 2. 03 0.95 0.16 0.27 0.80 6.50 Std_Dev_Pre 3.72 1.15 2. 65 1.07 0.42 0.82 0.14 6.37

Variance 109.79 5.41 6.07 1.10 0.35 1.65 1.01 516.35

R 2 0.20 0.19 0.41 0.46 0.02 0.00 0.43 0.14

BF 0.31 0.57 0.69 0.71 6.10 1.41 0.54 0.37

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21



### Table C-4m. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Mammoth Cave Class I area.

MACA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -121.24 -61.27 -66.90 -38.39 96.54 200.00 -53.22 -83.33 MFE (%) 121.24 98.70 67.80 46.35 106.03 200.00 106.30 83.33

A p -0.45 0.12 -0.29 -0.27 0.55 -999.00 -0.80 -0.04 NMB (%) -73.51 -18.48 -47.74 - 32.06 228.66 -999.00 -61.68 -53.43 NME (%) 73.51 84.20 48.54 37. 77 248.33 -999.00 76.41 53.43 MNB (%) -72.87 -13.78 -46.23 - 24.86 315.06 -999.00 -6.34 -53.97 MNE (%) 72.87 81.80 47.16 34. 63 322.26 -999.00 97.75 53.97 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -18.73 -1.78 -3.18 -0.94 0.86 3.45 -0.71 -30.58 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 18.73 8.09 3.24 1.11 0.94 3.45 0.88 30.58 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 20.15 10.57 3.79 1.47 1.10 4.21 1.21 34.66 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 39.05 30.49 13.25 6.05 1.41 0.00 4.08 65.36 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 21.37 34.29 9.43 4.41 2.19 8.01 0.83 63.00 Mean_Obs 25.48 9.61 6.67 2.94 0.38 0.00 1.15 57.23 Mean_Pred 6.75 7.83 3.49 2.00 1.24 3.45 0.44 26.65 Std_Dev_Obs 6.70 6.69 2. 68 1.11 0.27 0.00 1.02 6.69 Std_Dev_Pre 5.16 9.91 2. 19 0.90 0.60 2.47 0.25 17.74

Variance 405.94 111.65 14.33 2.17 1.22 17.73 1.47 1201.52

R 2 0.04 0.05 0.42 0.13 0.03 -999.00 0.03 0.12

BF 0.27 0.86 0.54 0.75 4.15 0.00 0.90 0.46

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-19 Table C-4n. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Mingo Class I area.

MING bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -122.89 -71.02 -31. 76 -7.09 138.37 197.99 24.07 -20.17 MFE (%) 122.89 108.52 46.62 37.98 138.37 197.99 58.30 47.25

A p -0.59 4.78 -0.27 0.22 4.57 53.62 -0.18 2.28 NMB (%) -73.17 15.70 -26.09 -2.91 508.18 20904.07 14.53 0.62 NME (%) 73.17 124.27 39.88 37. 18 508.18 20904.07 64.88 48.50 MNB (%) -73.66 10.81 -17.69 3.48 1070.38 3119.60 89.76 -1.41 MNE (%) 73.66 118.63 38.69 38. 50 1070.38 3119.60 114.86 46.76 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -12.68 0.74 -1.74 -0.07 2.61 21.82 0.41 0.29 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.68 5.88 2.66 0.88 2.61 21.82 1.84 22.58 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.73 13.02 3.40 1.10 3.11 28.77 2.72 35.59 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 32.46 11.03 12.57 3.80 1.45 1.47 9.86 56.75 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.20 63.78 9.23 4.66 8.05 80.50 8.10 186.22 Mean_Obs 17.33 4.73 6.68 2.38 0.51 0.10 2.83 46.57 Mean_Pred 4.65 5.48 4.93 2.31 3.12 21.93 3.24 46.86 Std_Dev_Obs 6.18 3.01 2. 76 0.77 0.38 0.35 2.51 7.41 Std_Dev_Pre 3.83 13.49 2. 45 1.07 1.71 19.37 1.84 38.39

Variance 188.61 169.45 11.59 1.21 9.67 827.57 7.42 1266.49

R 2 0.25 0.03 0.12 0.09 0.00 0.27 0.05 0.13

BF 0.26 1.11 0.82 1.03 11.70 2.93 1.90 0.99 Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-4o. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Okefenokee Class I

area.

OKEF bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -128.51 -179.19 31.20 -51.96 15.38 151.32 -127.01 -83.50 MFE (%) 128.51 179.19 43.66 66.15 92.26 162.36 127.01 83.50

A p -0.57 -0.56 0.83 -0.13 -0.23 0.04 -0.71 -0.33 NMB (%) -76.36 -92.60 53.82 - 31.70 5.19 217.14 -80.36 -56.54 NME (%) 76.36 92.60 61.43 49.69 109.76 270.83 80.36 56.54 MNB (%) -76.48 -92.69 52.43 - 31.75 160.17 -8.23 -75.22 -56.79 MNE (%) 76.48 92.69 62.30 51.45 208.59 31.64 75.22 56.79 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -14.61 -3.72 3.79 -0.69 0.02 0.59 -1.57 -26.00 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.61 3.72 4.33 1.09 0.41 0.74 1.57 26.00 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.31 4.06 5.77 1.22 0.55 0.88 1.81 27.22 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 26.45 8.07 11.63 4.86 1.77 2.07 3.93 52.70 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.29 3.56 21.29 4.24 1.36 2.15 1.12 35.48 Mean_Obs 19.13 4.02 7.05 2.18 0.37 0.27 1.96 45.99 Mean_Pred 4.52 0.30 10.85 1.49 0.39 0.86 0.38 19.99 Std_Dev_Obs 4.27 1.56 2. 04 0.85 0.39 0.61 0.94 5.57 Std_Dev_Pre 3.31 0.77 5. 18 1.11 0.32 0.52 0.27 8.41

Variance 234.25 16.49 33.34 1.48 0.31 0.78 3.27 740.97

R 2 0.07 0.01 0.28 0.23 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.13

BF 0.24 0.07 1.52 0.68 2.60 0.21 0.25 0.43 Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-20 Table C-4p. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cape Romain Class I

area.

ROMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -124.88 -181.06 -94.53 -46.13 12.09 -31.75 -43.14 -122.25 MFE (%) 135.54 181.06 101.08 72.68 84.22 150.25 63.91 126.73

A p 0.56 -0.57 0.10 -0.25 1.56 -0.80 -0.58 0.06 NMB (%) -59.52 -93.83 -50.21 - 35.42 27.07 -75.42 -45.43 -69.84 NME (%) 78.50 93.83 61.05 49.83 104.69 108.25 53.72 74.60 MNB (%) -60.36 -93.35 -56.56 - 35.41 71.98 -4.48 -19.27 -70.13 MNE (%) 87.92 93.35 64.79 46.91 115.30 120.19 52.90 76.16 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.44 -2.51 -1.72 -0.37 0.06 -2.52 -1.23 -27.68 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.13 2.51 2.09 0.53 0.23 3.62 1.46 29.56 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 12.73 2.73 2.45 0.75 0.37 5.48 2.27 30.48 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 26.12 4.50 8.19 5.01 0.65 15.38 8.77 50.02 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 40.73 1.93 9.04 3.75 1.66 3.04 3.67 53.00 Mean_Obs 14.19 2.68 3.43 1.06 0.22 3.35 2.71 39.63 Mean_Pred 5.74 0.17 1.71 0.68 0.28 0.82 1.48 11.95 Std_Dev_Obs 6.77 1.02 1. 81 1.08 0.18 4.48 2.03 7.68 Std_Dev_Pre 9.02 0.43 2. 23 0.93 0.37 0.88 0.88 12.36

Variance 161.99 7.47 5.98 0.56 0.13 30.00 5.16 928.75

R 2 0.07 0.00 0.40 0.63 0.05 0.23 0.09 0.05

BF 0.40 0.07 0.43 0.62 1.72 0.75 0.81 0.30 Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-4q. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the St. Marks Class I

area.

SAMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -126.89 -188.67 0.59 -14.74 1.18 160.72 -97.03 -97.60 MFE (%) 137.86 188.67 63.77 63.21 119.22 174.90 100.19 102.93

A p 0.37 -0.80 1.33 0.82 -0.69 3.18 -0.64 0.28 NMB (%) -68.20 -96.21 45.71 21. 88 -42.60 502.57 -67.55 -57.30 NME (%) 80.63 96.21 84.58 78.78 103.88 537.83 69.19 63.73 MNB (%) -60.48 -96.73 40.44 14. 39 195.14 3985.28 -60.84 -57.58 MNE (%) 88.12 96.73 85.00 69. 07 259.81 4022.29 64.66 64.99 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -12.62 -2.70 2.03 0.34 -0.20 0.93 -1.72 -23.78 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 14.92 2.70 3.76 1.23 0.48 1.00 1.76 26.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 15.81 2.84 5.77 1.86 0.70 1.37 2.07 28.55 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 24.51 4.76 9.53 3.98 2.05 1.13 4.89 50.25 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 33.63 0.96 22.22 7.25 0.64 4.74 1.75 64.45 Mean_Obs 18.50 2.80 4.45 1.57 0.47 0.19 2.54 41.51 Mean_Pred 5.88 0.11 6.48 1.91 0.27 1.12 0.83 17.73 Std_Dev_Obs 4.41 0.96 1. 96 1.04 0.58 0.37 1.09 6.13 Std_Dev_Pre 8.14 0.25 5. 95 2.16 0.19 1.16 0.45 16.11

Variance 249.94 8.05 33.28 3.45 0.49 1.87 4.27 814.88

R 2 0.02 0.14 0.14 0.25 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.03

BF 0.40 0.03 1.40 1.14 2.95 11.14 0.39 0.42 Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-21 Table C-4r. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Shenandoah Class I

area.

SHEN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -74.36 25.46 35.69 15. 95 133.54 200.00 -62.78 -25.64 MFE (%) 93.26 75.95 50.96 36.84 133.54 200.00 73.10 53.35

A p 5.97 1.09 5.98 4.44 3.08 -999.00 -0.54 3.27 NMB (%) 4.37 74.12 91.62 50.01 420.15 -999.00 -52.15 6.69 NME (%) 99.60 103.04 107.36 67. 27 420.15 -999.00 56.76 56.93 MNB (%) -9.26 79.51 87.61 49. 86 901.25 -999.00 -39.38 2.07 MNE (%) 96.56 110.24 100.76 66. 81 901.25 -999.00 54.53 57.60 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) 0.52 3.61 2.55 0.81 0.57 3.12 -0.47 2.16 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 11.86 5.02 2.99 1.09 0.57 3.12 0.51 18.34 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 28.13 6.76 7.50 2.78 0.65 3.91 0.61 34.08 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 20.73 11.73 5.74 2.68 0.35 0.00 1.92 42.00 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 144.46 24.52 40.06 14.58 1.41 8.41 0.89 179.34 Mean_Obs 11.90 4.87 2.78 1.62 0.14 0.00 0.90 32.21 Mean_Pred 12.42 8.48 5.33 2.43 0.71 3.12 0.43 34.37 Std_Dev_Obs 4.19 2.96 1. 49 0.69 0.09 0.00 0.49 6.21 Std_Dev_Pre 29.54 6.95 7. 90 2.83 0.33 2.40 0.22 36.39

Variance 791.22 45.64 56.28 7.74 0.42 15.25 0.37 1161.58

R 2 0.07 0.31 0.28 0.08 0.20 -999.00 0.37 0.12

BF 0.91 1.80 1.88 1.50 10.01 0.00 0.61 1.02 Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-4s. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Shining Rock Class I

area.

SHRO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -75.84 -81.41 13.51 27.00 123.07 194.49 -1.93 -68.69 MFE (%) 86.97 107.46 56.47 58.31 131.08 194.49 144.41 74.39

A p 1.86 -0.12 0.39 0.57 3.68 36.95 -0.76 0.70 NMB (%) -32.22 -52.02 30.21 41. 98 483.48 9454.52 -69.54 -42.24 NME (%) 62.92 80.62 67.11 68. 10 499.53 9454.52 93.21 51.49 MNB (%) -43.15 -17.86 61.34 130.27 1099.73 1414.30 21.60 -44.28 MNE (%) 62.34 93.68 91.14 155. 33 1105.94 1414.30 142.80 51.78 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -2.64 -0.81 0.74 0.46 0.46 0.92 -0.43 -10.14 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 5.16 1.25 1.63 0.74 0.47 0.92 0.58 12.36 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 7.24 1.75 2.33 1.02 0.59 1.32 0.82 14.01 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 13.73 4.65 6.13 2.31 0.28 0.10 2.87 31.05 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 39.24 4.09 8.51 3.63 1.29 3.81 0.68 52.94 Mean_Obs 8.19 1.55 2.43 1.09 0.09 0.01 0.62 24.00 Mean_Pred 5.55 0.75 3.17 1.55 0.55 0.93 0.19 13.86 Std_Dev_Obs 4.17 1.30 1. 31 0.58 0.08 0.03 0.70 5.96 Std_Dev_Pre 8.28 1.00 2. 05 0.98 0.38 0.97 0.14 10.91

Variance 52.35 3.08 5.44 1.05 0.35 1.75 0.68 196.33

R 2 0.31 0.00 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.19

BF 0.57 0.79 1.61 2.30 12.00 2.52 0.86 0.56

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-22 Table C-4t. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Sipsey Class I area.

SIPS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -106.85 -109.16 -9.1 5 -54.86 77.60 200.00 -117.27 -69.04 MFE (%) 120.51 109.41 40.17 64.97 113.99 200.00 117.27 78.81

A p 1.69 -0.33 0.70 -0.04 -0.14 -999.00 -0.74 1.04 NMB (%) -47.35 -56.06 8.56 -36. 07 120.89 -999.00 -76.03 -41.33 NME (%) 84.16 56.35 41.07 46. 35 198.21 -999.00 76.03 57.32 MNB (%) -53.46 -61.27 2.84 -34. 17 389.14 -999.00 -71.89 -42.53 MNE (%) 82.66 61.52 39.22 48. 53 410.41 -999.00 71.89 57.28 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.62 -4.46 0.59 -0.98 0.65 3.74 -1.76 -21.39 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 17.11 4.49 2.83 1.26 1.06 3.74 1.76 29.67 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 21.62 6.66 3.79 1.53 1.30 4.54 2.07 32.63 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 36.05 21.36 11.04 4.69 2.95 0.00 4.24 61.55 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 97.08 14.24 18.78 4.49 2.52 9.09 1.12 125.72 Mean_Obs 20.32 7.96 6.89 2.72 0.54 0.00 2.31 51.75 Mean_Pred 10.70 3.50 7.48 1.74 1.19 3.74 0.55 30.36 Std_Dev_Obs 6.48 5.30 2. 40 1.08 0.67 0.00 1.17 6.11 Std_Dev_Pre 20.91 4.28 5. 23 1.17 0.75 2.64 0.29 26.57

Variance 467.50 44.35 14.40 2.35 1.70 20.58 4.28 1064.78

R 2 0.10 0.21 0.54 0.19 0.10 -999.00 0.08 0.11

BF 0.47 0.39 1.03 0.66 4.89 0.00 0.28 0.57
N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21



### Table C-4u. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Swanquarter Class I

area.

SWAN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -136.66 -161.55 -38.76 -28.09 46.67 34.79 -118.19 -118.69 MFE (%) 138.38 170.70 62.73 58.61 109.65 173.91 118.19 120.57

A p -0.13 1.44 2.83 1.96 0.27 -0.67 -0.60 0.18 NMB (%) -74.90 -69.17 11.83 17. 63 96.96 -46.99 -72.45 -68.09 NME (%) 77.12 92.56 65.71 77.26 189.16 134.86 72.45 70.44 MNB (%) -76.02 -77.95 -12.66 83.61 335.71 -81.74 -73.26 -69.58 MNE (%) 77.94 92.54 56.88 146.06 375.39 81.74 73.26 71.69 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -9.68 -1.72 0.37 0.18 0.16 -0.66 -2.15 -24.60 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.97 2.30 2.06 0.80 0.31 1.89 2.15 25.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 10.90 2.57 4.25 1.71 0.42 3.11 2.37 26.66 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 21.09 4.21 6.60 2.59 0.87 11.33 6.25 42.25 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 18.25 10.24 25.28 7.65 1.11 3.69 2.53 49.97 Mean_Obs 12.93 2.48 3.14 1.04 0.16 1.40 2.97 36.13 Mean_Pred 3.24 0.77 3.51 1.22 0.32 0.74 0.82 11.53 Std_Dev_Obs 3.88 0.85 1. 44 0.75 0.19 2.68 1.42 3.96 Std_Dev_Pre 4.36 2.22 5. 35 1.84 0.32 1.02 0.60 11.96

Variance 118.84 6.61 18.09 2.91 0.18 9.70 5.63 710.89

R 2 0.05 0.23 0.60 0.11 0.03 0.08 0.62 0.26

BF 0.24 0.22 0.87 1.84 4.36 0.09 0.27 0.30

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-23 Table C-4v. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Upper Buffalo Class I

area.

UPBU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -138.41 -121.02 -23.25 -46.69 93.32 199.90 -110.88 -88.95 MFE (%) 139.43 121.02 44.59 56.99 108.59 199.90 126.30 90.01

A p -0.07 -0.37 -0.11 0.36 2.20 1232.47 -0.85 0.00 NMB (%) -77.41 -71.02 -13.97 - 31.38 262.69 767627.06 -78.16 -58.54 NME (%) 79.10 71.02 36.99 43. 46 275.35 767627.06 81.63 59.75 MNB (%) -78.49 -70.21 -11.36 - 29.34 1615.30 17510.96 -57.49 -57.86 MNE (%) 79.56 70.21 37.29 42. 69 1625.86 17510.96 84.47 58.99 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -8.11 -3.62 -0.67 -0.54 0.95 3.28 -2.71 -21.59 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 8.28 3.62 1.76 0.74 1.00 3.28 2.83 22.04 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 9.10 4.57 2.03 0.88 1.19 4.05 3.42 23.65 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 19.65 12.68 8.70 2.65 0.81 0.01 8.94 44.16 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 18.27 7.98 7.73 3.60 2.58 11.59 1.31 44.17 Mean_Obs 10.47 5.10 4.77 1.71 0.36 0.00 3.47 36.88 Mean_Pred 2.36 1.48 4.10 1.17 1.32 3.28 0.76 15.29 Std_Dev_Obs 4.10 3.60 1. 70 0.47 0.17 0.00 2.13 5.26 Std_Dev_Pre 3.75 1.87 2. 09 0.74 0.63 2.44 0.33 8.88

Variance 82.79 20.90 4.14 0.78 1.41 16.42 11.68 559.29

R 2 0.18 0.38 0.23 0.12 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.01

BF 0.22 0.30 0.89 0.71 17.15 8.00 0.43 0.42

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-5a. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days across Class I areas in the 12 km VISTAS grid.

12km bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -63.82 -121.18 -32.08 -63.17 22.51 188.69 -87.88 -49.58 MFE (%) 74.05 146.07 50.78 70.50 69.91 191.96 115.76 60.44

A p -0.50 0.44 -0.83 -0.28 -0.43 8.80 -0.65 -0.43 NMB (%) -39.35 -18.22 -29.24 - 42.51 36.38 18564.68 -69.20 -32.51 NME (%) 50.22 87.96 48.66 52. 21 97.47 18666.07 74.92 44.58 MNB (%) -38.14 -39.83 -15.63 - 41.16 156.91 7919.56 -39.56 -29.87 MNE (%) 51.57 102.75 43.37 51. 71 189.98 7956.43 88.73 44.15 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -48.14 -1.38 -6.15 -2.24 0.38 12.46 -2.26 -55.75 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 61.44 6.66 10.23 2.75 1.01 12.52 2.44 76.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 82.20 13.69 28.78 3.59 1.79 20.70 3.53 101.79 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 475.66 107.80 614.69 41.23 16.92 11.70 20.96 735.80 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 235.90 154.76 102.23 29.67 9.61 114.64 7.23 419.01 Mean_Obs 122.36 7.57 21.03 5.26 1.04 0.07 3.26 171.51 Mean_Pred 74.22 6.19 14.88 3.03 1.42 12.52 1.01 115.76 Std_Dev_Obs 68.78 14.02 31. 42 3.03 1.23 0.57 2.77 72.23 Std_Dev_Pre 59.70 18.80 12. 73 3.01 1.23 16.52 1.03 74.73

Variance 6757.49 187.38 828.03 12.88 3.20 428.51 12.47 10360.90

R 2 0.22 0.48 0.20 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.11

BF 0.62 0.60 0.84 0.59 2.57 4.23 0.58 0.70

N 512 512 510 510 512 512 512 512

### C-24 Table C-5b. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Breton Island Class I

area.

BRET bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -108.00 -197.37 -85.96 -103.52 -39.07 138.89 -103.81 -108.13 MFE (%) 113.52 197.37 88.07 103.52 106.38 165.39 103.81 109.77

A p -0.13 -0.96 -0.75 -0.68 -0.84 1.71 -0.37 -0.25 NMB (%) -58.22 -98.65 -60.76 - 69.59 -60.95 572.95 -61.85 -62.38 NME (%) 64.22 98.65 62.79 69.59 99.61 650.61 61.85 63.98 MNB (%) -60.00 -99.31 -53.74 -66.26 39.75 76.21 -63.36 -62.99 MNE (%) 66.37 99.31 56.03 66.26 126.72 130.85 63.36 64.73 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -42.55 -8.04 -5.76 -3.05 -0.78 1.64 -2.74 -69.94 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 46.94 8.04 5.95 3.05 1.28 1.87 2.74 71.73 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 52.63 10.62 10.17 3.77 2.59 2.49 3.16 79.19 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 126.22 29.70 46.34 12.96 11.47 1.93 10.72 171.55 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 109.49 1.16 11.69 4.20 1.84 5.21 6.78 129.27 Mean_Obs 73.10 8.15 9.47 4.38 1.28 0.29 4.44 112.12 Mean_Pred 30.54 0.11 3.72 1.33 0.50 1.93 1.69 42.17 Std_Dev_Obs 18.79 7.30 10. 41 2.76 2.32 0.55 2.01 19.64 Std_Dev_Pre 34.94 0.30 3. 36 0.93 0.52 1.69 1.72 40.19

Variance 2770.25 112.76 103. 42 14.21 6.70 6.18 9.96 6270.32

R 2 0.19 0.55 0.44 0.43 0.08 0.07 0.42 0.13

BF 0.40 0.01 0.46 0.34 1.40 0.51 0.37 0.37

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-5c. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Brigantine Class I

area.

BRIG bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -68.36 -54.70 -42.36 -16.55 25.67 197.35 -96.66 -44.58 MFE (%) 76.35 101.20 51.78 34.66 67.60 197.35 133.02 55.90

A p -0.28 0.60 -0.83 -0.28 -0.44 17.73 -0.92 -0.70 NMB (%) -44.01 58.77 -63.48 - 14.87 38.85 16306.94 -81.39 -38.91 NME (%) 53.83 103.33 67.06 30. 43 98.91 16306.94 84.05 48.12 MNB (%) -43.87 -1.06 -27.55 -7.43 133.28 486.75 -76.23 -28.70 MNE (%) 54.42 87.49 40.23 34.29 162.56 486.75 76.23 42.52 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -53.74 7.87 -31.03 -1.17 0.43 8.35 -3.53 -81.61 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 65.73 13.84 32.78 2.40 1.08 8.35 3.64 100.93 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 77.68 25.55 110.38 3.47 1.68 9.45 5.34 154.13 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 275.18 71.94 614.69 41.23 6.83 1.13 20.65 735.80 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 197.92 115.45 102.23 29.67 3.80 21.08 1.62 223.13 Mean_Obs 122.10 13.40 48.89 7.88 1.10 0.05 4.34 209.75 Mean_Pred 68.36 21.27 17.86 6.71 1.52 8.40 0.81 128.14 Std_Dev_Obs 60.77 16.68 127. 43 7.80 1.30 0.24 4.16 133.57 Std_Dev_Pre 52.55 37.68 20. 47 5.76 1.05 4.52 0.31 56.24

Variance 6034.93 652.70 12184. 42 12.05 2.83 89.35 28.56 23754.77

R 2 0.24 0.74 0.88 0.85 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.04

BF 0.56 0.99 0.72 0.93 2.33 0.27 0.22 0.71

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

### C-25 Table C-5d. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Caney Creek Class I

area.

CACR bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -69.34 -45.08 -7.66 - 68.17 31.62 190.50 -113.64 -43.67 MFE (%) 73.49 94.78 32.17 68.17 57.31 190.50 122.51 52.94

A p -0.46 0.69 -0.12 -0.34 -0.26 20.76 -0.81 -0.25 NMB (%) -46.53 23.99 -3.37 -49. 45 29.65 24425.54 -79.04 -30.60 NME (%) 50.44 86.91 28.24 49. 45 81.70 24425.54 79.74 40.54 MNB (%) -45.19 17.81 0.41 -48. 37 140.50 1964.48 -61.55 -26.81 MNE (%) 50.01 99.08 30.62 48. 37 158.09 1964.48 79.67 40.75 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -50.95 2.45 -0.66 -2.16 0.42 14.33 -3.40 -49.12 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 55.22 8.88 5.55 2.16 1.16 14.33 3.43 65.08 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 78.07 23.14 7.96 2.46 1.88 16.37 3.94 92.23 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 281.03 70.57 51.07 7.26 6.70 1.35 7.89 324.07 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 151.79 119.16 44.88 4.82 4.98 29.35 1.46 244.51 Mean_Obs 109.50 10.22 19.65 4.38 1.43 0.06 4.30 160.52 Mean_Pred 58.54 12.67 18.99 2.21 1.85 14.38 0.90 111.40 Std_Dev_Obs 61.21 17.65 10. 63 1.38 1.34 0.28 1.98 59.45 Std_Dev_Pre 44.67 27.86 10. 96 1.04 1.01 8.19 0.32 65.64

Variance 6095.27 535.44 63. 35 6.06 3.54 267.87 15.53 8506.03

R 2 0.15 0.30 0.52 0.29 0.07 0.13 0.01 0.04

BF 0.55 1.18 1.00 0.52 2.41 0.90 0.38 0.73

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23



### Table C-5e. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Chassahowitzka Class I area.

CHAS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -56.60 -120.68 -35.75 -30.28 103.28 200.00 -20.70 -16.94 MFE (%) 65.36 143.24 47.42 50.30 115.65 200.00 41.49 34.42

A p 0.63 1.18 -0.34 0.35 0.04 -999.00 -0.48 0.51 NMB (%) -30.52 -46.96 -29.64 - 18.68 199.83 -999.00 -24.95 -9.49 NME (%) 45.19 90.60 40.89 44. 17 239.31 -999.00 41.42 31.54 MNB (%) -36.55 -38.40 -24.84 - 16.13 522.15 -999.00 -9.21 -10.29 MNE (%) 47.47 100.64 38.58 45. 44 531.13 -999.00 37.57 31.36 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -23.98 -2.50 -6.10 -1.16 1.31 28.97 -0.67 -11.87 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 35.52 4.83 8.42 2.73 1.57 28.97 1.11 39.44 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 40.90 6.12 11.22 3.14 1.84 30.72 1.65 44.81 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 121.53 9.87 71.19 10.37 3.58 0.00 6.40 169.84 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 198.53 21.47 46.83 14.02 3.71 58.76 3.31 256.55 Mean_Obs 78.59 5.33 20.60 6.19 0.66 0.00 2.69 125.05 Mean_Pred 54.61 2.83 14.49 5.03 1.97 28.97 2.02 113.18 Std_Dev_Obs 22.96 2.23 14. 55 1.97 0.74 0.00 1.34 19.06 Std_Dev_Pre 46.76 5.23 10. 49 3.27 0.87 10.47 0.50 50.42

Variance 1673.04 37.40 125. 95 9.83 3.38 943.77 2.73 2007.87

R 2 0.53 0.00 0.56 0.19 0.11 -999.00 0.07 0.25

BF 0.63 0.62 0.75 0.84 6.22 0.00 0.91 0.90

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-26 Table C-5f. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Cohutta Class I area.

COHU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -64.44 -114.37 -8.3 4 -64.29 4.78 190.48 45.44 -51.06 MFE (%) 73.26 131.32 41.25 76.94 46.01 190.48 141.50 59.52

A p -0.48 1.00 -0.17 -0.03 -0.15 -999.00 -0.85 -0.44 NMB (%) -48.01 -40.98 -3.97 -41. 16 6.48 -999.00 -65.26 -39.23 NME (%) 54.69 87.80 50.87 57. 36 50.78 -999.00 100.69 46.26 MNB (%) -40.29 -55.39 9.05 -38. 89 40.67 -999.00 -25.45 -33.00 MNE (%) 50.79 83.95 45.41 58. 09 72.18 -999.00 70.16 42.53 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -88.61 -1.87 -1.03 -2.07 0.07 10.91 -1.11 -91.72 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 100.93 4.01 13.15 2.88 0.56 10.91 1.71 108.16 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 126.52 5.37 21.92 3.25 0.81 12.79 3.03 138.10 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 376.51 16.47 96.66 9.78 3.19 0.00 9.23 507.89 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 194.78 32.90 80.36 9.48 2.69 29.03 1.37 282.09 Mean_Obs 184.56 4.57 25.85 5.03 1.10 0.00 1.70 233.80 Mean_Pred 95.95 2.70 24.83 2.96 1.17 10.91 0.59 142.08 Std_Dev_Obs 81.83 3.53 18. 12 1.51 0.59 0.00 2.77 91.26 Std_Dev_Pre 52.37 7.17 17. 61 2.35 0.55 6.84 0.28 66.55

Variance 16006.81 28.82 480.69 10.57 0.66 163.56 9.17 19072.43

R 2 0.01 0.54 0.04 0.03 0.00 -999.00 0.13 0.02

BF 0.60 0.45 1.09 0.61 1.41 0.00 0.43 0.67
N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21



### Table C-5g. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Dolly Sods Class I

area.

DOSO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -72.68 -116.04 -46.04 - 106.64 -18.55 191.30 -133.53 -70.32 MFE (%) 79.52 127.19 65.52 106.64 42.44 191.30 133.53 75.20

A p -0.45 0.19 -0.37 -0.73 -0.37 -999.00 -0.93 -0.46 NMB (%) -47.87 -60.19 -34.19 -69. 89 -17.51 -999.00 -86.58 -47.83 NME (%) 54.04 77.85 49.85 69. 89 34.44 -999.00 86.58 52.21 MNB (%) -45.39 -58.71 -26.38 - 68.33 3.88 -999.00 -77.99 -45.29 MNE (%) 53.23 75.27 50.74 68. 33 49.74 -999.00 77.99 50.65 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -73.37 -1.72 -4.04 -2.89 -0.14 3.03 -1.36 -88.24 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 82.83 2.23 5.89 2.89 0.28 3.03 1.36 96.32 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 113.35 2.55 6.91 3.11 0.38 3.37 1.78 129.42 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 404.99 5.69 26.51 7.50 1.78 0.00 4.85 451.54 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 223.28 6.78 16.74 2.06 1.11 5.67 0.34 243.89 Mean_Obs 153.28 2.86 11.82 4.14 0.82 0.00 1.57 184.51 Mean_Pred 79.91 1.14 7.78 1.25 0.68 3.03 0.21 96.26 Std_Dev_Obs 78.10 1.10 5. 71 1.22 0.32 0.00 1.21 80.44 Std_Dev_Pre 63.83 1.73 4. 41 0.43 0.29 1.51 0.07 68.63

Variance 12847.43 6.53 47.69 9.70 0.14 11.38 3.18 16750.30

R 2 0.06 0.02 0.15 0.07 0.10 -999.00 0.32 0.03

BF 0.55 0.41 0.74 0.32 1.04 0.00 0.22 0.55 Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-27 Table C-5h. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Everglades Class I

area.

EVER bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -78.63 -193.20 -20.53 - 23.81 -1.47 146.26 -106.69 -72.38 MFE (%) 92.21 193.20 60.07 60.39 102.54 182.68 106.69 81.65

A p 0.30 -0.92 -0.77 0.09 -0.84 0.02 -0.77 -0.24 NMB (%) -34.44 -97.70 -40.91 - 20.12 -37.65 365.97 -75.50 -42.18 NME (%) 56.66 97.70 68.37 46.07 111.98 526.54 75.50 54.59 MNB (%) -42.02 -98.16 3.60 - 16.04 116.22 27.90 -66.00 -41.14 MNE (%) 60.29 98.16 52.64 41.20 179.95 127.20 66.00 52.69 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -13.47 -3.75 -7.39 -0.95 -0.50 2.67 -2.44 -34.61 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 22.15 3.75 12.35 2.18 1.50 3.84 2.44 44.79 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 26.53 4.08 29.80 3.20 3.59 5.05 3.57 58.45 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 79.12 8.02 134.42 10.81 16.92 11.70 13.75 196.06 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 103.14 0.67 31.29 11.74 2.74 11.92 3.18 149.58 Mean_Obs 39.10 3.84 18.06 4.74 1.34 0.73 3.23 82.04 Mean_Pred 25.63 0.09 10.67 3.79 0.84 3.40 0.79 47.43 Std_Dev_Obs 17.43 1.72 27. 39 2.70 3.37 2.41 2.64 28.80 Std_Dev_Pre 28.94 0.17 8. 82 3.09 0.81 3.01 0.63 42.20

Variance 704.09 16.68 887.81 10.22 12.91 25.47 12.75 3416.20

R 2 0.35 0.19 0.01 0.18 0.05 0.09 0.01 0.01

BF 0.58 0.02 1.04 0.80 2.16 0.27 0.34 0.59

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-5i. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Great Smokey Mountains Class I area.

GRSM bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -63.76 -163.78 -1.34 - 63.89 1.23 200.00 -100.86 -52.84 MFE (%) 65.31 197.12 37.84 64.35 43.61 200.00 124.35 54.90

A p -0.31 -0.85 0.42 -0.25 0.74 -999.00 -0.83 -0.20 NMB (%) -43.46 -97.29 -0.61 -46. 94 5.71 -999.00 -80.08 -38.18 NME (%) 44.65 97.64 39.61 47. 41 43.59 -999.00 83.61 39.87 MNB (%) -43.44 -99.12 13.10 -46. 37 48.53 -999.00 -27.41 -37.69 MNE (%) 45.09 99.12 44.16 46. 84 80.70 -999.00 107.85 39.86 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -73.15 -2.67 -0.11 -2.25 0.06 7.32 -1.63 -79.67 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 75.14 2.68 7.46 2.28 0.42 7.32 1.70 83.20 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 92.01 3.23 10.13 2.54 0.57 8.15 2.15 100.92 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 308.51 10.16 33.88 7.71 1.52 0.00 4.89 347.18 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 212.34 1.54 47.97 5.81 2.66 17.08 0.82 277.94 Mean_Obs 168.29 2.75 18.83 4.80 0.97 0.00 2.03 208.67 Mean_Pred 95.15 0.07 18.71 2.55 1.02 7.32 0.40 129.00 Std_Dev_Obs 64.74 2.07 7. 77 1.29 0.37 0.00 1.42 65.71 Std_Dev_Pre 58.12 0.31 8. 98 1.16 0.53 3.68 0.15 66.87

Variance 8466.67 10.42 102.61 6.47 0.32 66.48 4.61 10185.05

R 2 0.33 0.56 0.06 0.27 0.04 -999.00 0.00 0.30

BF 0.57 0.01 1.13 0.54 1.49 0.00 0.73 0.62

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-28 Table C-5j. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Hercules Glade Class I

area.

HEGL bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -62.64 -64.72 -31.35 -67.72 88.94 192.00 -37.50 -27.40 MFE (%) 73.75 95.79 40.17 67.72 93.38 192.00 51.55 43.36

A p -0.54 -0.19 -0.33 -0.31 0.80 -999.00 -0.58 -0.45 NMB (%) -39.63 -21.48 -26.27 - 48.11 176.06 -999.00 -36.57 -19.99 NME (%) 52.05 55.67 35.45 48. 11 190.77 -999.00 47.96 36.40 MNB (%) -37.25 -18.60 -22.76 - 48.54 330.59 -999.00 -23.65 -14.88 MNE (%) 52.07 75.95 33.30 48. 54 334.07 -999.00 40.40 34.41 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -41.28 -3.14 -4.77 -2.39 1.84 28.38 -1.05 -31.35 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 54.21 8.13 6.44 2.39 1.99 28.38 1.38 57.08 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 82.66 16.53 8.68 2.63 2.53 30.85 1.93 90.89 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 339.47 99.26 42.42 9.36 4.42 0.00 8.18 377.55 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 155.36 80.27 28.32 6.45 7.97 47.45 3.41 207.61 Mean_Obs 104.15 14.60 18.16 4.96 1.04 0.00 2.88 156.80 Mean_Pred 62.87 11.47 13.39 2.57 2.88 28.38 1.83 125.46 Std_Dev_Obs 61.34 27.70 8. 58 1.45 0.82 0.00 1.57 52.29 Std_Dev_Pre 49.77 22.81 6. 10 1.33 1.52 12.33 0.63 59.02

Variance 6832.22 273.09 75. 41 6.90 6.43 951.43 3.74 8260.55

R 2 0.02 0.64 0.29 0.46 0.01 -999.00 0.00 0.05

BF 0.63 0.81 0.77 0.51 4.31 0.00 0.76 0.85

N 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25



### Table C-5k. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the James Rover Face Class I area.

JARI bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -44.05 -161.63 -45.20 - 99.63 -17.57 200.00 -151.62 -46.37 MFE (%) 55.27 173.62 50.38 99.63 35.59 200.00 151.62 52.93

A p -0.23 0.64 -0.74 -0.70 -0.76 -999.00 -0.96 -0.27 NMB (%) -29.70 -72.08 -45.42 -66. 94 -25.82 -999.00 -88.49 -33.54 NME (%) 40.79 96.06 47.83 66. 94 36.46 -999.00 88.49 39.47 MNB (%) -27.68 -77.76 -32.72 - 65.82 -5.07 -999.00 -85.78 -32.04 MNE (%) 41.58 96.60 38.51 65. 82 36.00 -999.00 85.78 39.68 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -48.04 -3.12 -11.73 -4.71 -0.28 6.09 -2.62 -71.76 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 65.98 4.16 12.36 4.71 0.39 6.09 2.62 84.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 78.63 4.57 23.32 5.01 0.79 6.47 3.13 97.61 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 274.58 8.70 119.43 11.72 4.58 0.00 10.28 324.44 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 212.68 14.24 30.79 3.53 1.11 9.46 0.44 237.97 Mean_Obs 161.76 4.33 25.83 7.03 1.07 0.00 2.96 213.98 Mean_Pred 113.71 1.21 14.10 2.32 0.79 6.09 0.34 142.22 Std_Dev_Obs 44.65 1.96 23. 46 1.98 0.80 0.00 1.76 52.76 Std_Dev_Pre 62.85 3.39 6. 34 0.64 0.21 2.23 0.07 65.78

Variance 6182.14 20.87 543. 67 25.14 0.62 41.85 9.82 9528.45

R 2 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.22 0.13 -999.00 0.00 0.13

BF 0.72 0.22 0.67 0.34 0.95 0.00 0.14 0.68

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-29 Table C-5l. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Linville Gorge Class I

area.
LIGO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -62.93 -150.69 -30.70 - 87.63 -18.24 196.89 -153.13 -57.00 MFE (%) 67.74 159.27 40.91 87.63 31.41 196.89 153.13 60.02

A p -0.19 -0.02 0.15 -0.33 0.08 3.84 -0.82 -0.23 NMB (%) -39.98 -71.27 -23.15 - 59.18 -15.85 5689.19 -86.95 -38.66 NME (%) 44.99 82.09 32.56 59. 18 28.30 5689.19 86.95 41.53 MNB (%) -41.43 -74.75 -21.29 - 59.63 -11.88 384.10 -86.53 -39.51 MNE (%) 46.79 85.40 33.45 59.63 27.35 384.10 86.53 42.81 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -58.86 -1.63 -3.65 -2.69 -0.13 5.25 -2.09 -71.19 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 66.23 1.88 5.14 2.69 0.23 5.25 2.09 76.47 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 75.30 2.08 6.40 2.81 0.29 5.68 2.19 87.22 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 290.29 4.53 31.89 6.06 1.27 2.03 4.03 343.89 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 235.90 4.41 36.79 4.06 1.37 9.82 0.75 266.44 Mean_Obs 147.22 2.29 15.77 4.55 0.81 0.09 2.40 184.14 Mean_Pred 88.35 0.66 12.12 1.86 0.68 5.34 0.31 112.95 Std_Dev_Obs 49.16 0.94 6. 92 0.97 0.26 0.43 0.74 52.20 Std_Dev_Pre 60.94 1.28 7. 33 0.84 0.30 2.38 0.14 65.76

Variance 5669.60 4.34 41. 00 7.88 0.09 32.28 4.81 7607.62

R 2 0.41 0.10 0.51 0.36 0.29 0.18 0.29 0.41

BF 0.59 0.25 0.79 0.40 0.88 0.22 0.13 0.60

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-5m. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Mammoth Cave Class I area.

MACA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -65.12 -134.11 -64.77 -68.22 37.17 183.33 73.57 -57.57 MFE (%) 68.90 147.55 66.39 68.22 55.41 183.33 156.43 60.57

A p -0.38 -0.37 0.07 -0.25 -0.53 -999.00 -0.69 -0.39 NMB (%) -46.69 -57.44 -44.40 - 49.42 22.76 -999.00 -28.66 -42.27 NME (%) 49.96 65.21 46.28 49. 42 72.16 -999.00 117.76 44.92 MNB (%) -41.05 -64.03 -45.70 - 48.73 103.82 -999.00 23.87 -37.74 MNE (%) 45.22 84.58 47.41 48. 73 117.45 -999.00 124.55 41.05 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -83.29 -5.79 -9.61 -2.75 0.29 13.40 -0.32 -96.83 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 89.11 6.58 10.02 2.75 0.93 13.40 1.31 102.89 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 120.48 10.17 11.30 3.15 1.58 15.17 1.60 136.14 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 347.31 107.80 40.53 9.05 8.22 0.00 4.63 405.74 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 216.80 68.26 43.56 6.76 3.90 25.46 1.41 246.32 Mean_Obs 178.37 10.09 21.64 5.57 1.28 0.00 1.11 229.07 Mean_Pred 95.08 4.29 12.03 2.82 1.58 13.40 0.79 132.24 Std_Dev_Obs 68.00 21.11 7. 98 1.75 1.55 0.00 1.56 65.54 Std_Dev_Pre 56.54 13.85 8. 66 1.42 0.69 7.28 0.27 65.53

Variance 14514.27 103.51269 127. 72 9.90 2.51 230.24 2.55 18532.89

R 2 0.00 0.93 0.54 0.29 0.03 -999.00 0.00 0.01

BF 0.59 0.36 0.54 0.51 2.04 0.00 0.62 0.62

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-30 Table C-5n. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Mingo Class I area.

MING bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -20.59 -53.58 -22.20 -18.82 107.61 190.54 -13.23 20.38 MFE (%) 66.65 111.83 49.34 43.70 113.87 190.54 37.67 54.93

A p -0.13 0.07 -0.22 -0.25 0.45 72.50 -0.38 0.46 NMB (%) 4.74 30.45 -27.80 - 22.91 206.49 87137.63 -21.72 40.81 NME (%) 59.76 64.63 44.49 40. 91 227.86 87137.63 36.98 65.30 MNB (%) 6.00 58.25 5.73 1. 02 587.75 13729.83 -3.73 47.74 MNE (%) 65.16 150.88 56.28 48. 24 592.40 13729.83 36.45 69.83 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) 5.35 6.29 -4.29 -1.12 2.99 69.04 -1.12 69.50 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 67.43 13.36 6.87 2.00 3.30 69.04 1.91 111.22 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 83.82 21.83 9.85 2.64 3.77 76.00 2.60 136.16 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 263.55 105.09 40.46 10.36 6.65 1.56 11.69 287.91 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 228.22 112.07 31.38 7.75 9.61 114.64 7.23 419.01 Mean_Obs 112.84 20.67 15.43 4.89 1.45 0.08 5.15 170.33 Mean_Pred 118.19 26.96 11.14 3.77 4.44 69.12 4.03 239.83 Std_Dev_Obs 63.96 30.73 10. 19 2.42 1.37 0.33 2.83 43.37 Std_Dev_Pre 88.99 38.04 6. 24 1.47 1.73 32.57 1.04 111.15

Variance 7025.62 476.67 97.08 6.99 14.18 5776.49 6.75 18538.89

R 2 0.17 0.68 0.22 0.08 0.02 0.03 0.32 0.00

BF 1.06 1.58 1.06 1.01 6.88 12.57 0.96 1.48

N 22 22 20 20 22 22 22 22



### Table C-5o. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Okefenokee Class I

area.
OKEF bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -79.19 -151.20 -7.49 - 66.68 18.36 193.37 -117.48 -60.64 MFE (%) 79.72 153.54 42.51 78.30 75.40 193.37 121.37 60.64

A p -0.23 -0.62 -0.49 -0.21 0.42 5.42 -0.71 -0.10 NMB (%) -49.55 -78.69 -18.89 - 42.37 30.38 6970.71 -79.40 -43.75 NME (%) 50.03 80.92 50.95 62. 56 90.15 6970.71 80.10 43.75 MNB (%) -52.76 -80.49 6.44 - 39.32 296.99 62.41 -68.22 -42.38 MNE (%) 53.31 83.19 39.20 60.73 338.55 62.41 72.60 42.38 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -47.55 -4.38 -6.64 -3.20 0.24 4.11 -2.14 -69.45 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 48.02 4.51 17.90 4.72 0.72 4.11 2.16 69.45 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 57.10 5.46 37.27 7.22 0.93 4.49 2.47 88.19 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 271.57 15.83 156.35 29.54 1.57 1.36 4.79 341.01 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 208.50 6.03 80.47 23.21 2.23 8.70 1.41 308.25 Mean_Obs 95.97 5.57 35.14 7.54 0.79 0.06 2.69 158.76 Mean_Pred 48.41 1.19 28.50 4.35 1.04 4.17 0.55 89.30 Std_Dev_Obs 57.98 3.49 32. 48 6.19 0.45 0.28 1.33 60.33 Std_Dev_Pre 44.25 1.86 19. 09 5.04 0.59 1.75 0.33 57.69

Variance 3260.75 29.83 1388. 71 52.15 0.86 20.15 6.12 7777.06

R 2 0.69 0.12 0.00 0.10 0.30 0.06 0.09 0.31

BF 0.47 0.20 1.06 0.61 3.97 0.07 0.32 0.58

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-31 Table C-5p. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Cape Romain Class I

area.
ROMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -56.37 -143.06 -55.60 -71.38 19.21 200.00 -17.45 -51.44 MFE (%) 73.61 169.89 59.90 73.52 93.27 200.00 88.22 62.26

A p -0.31 3.18 -0.25 -0.08 0.66 -999.00 -0.16 -0.30 NMB (%) -38.82 -13.25 -36.31 - 41.50 54.48 -999.00 -35.45 -35.48 NME (%) 57.49 135.58 44.40 46. 11 122.86 -999.00 63.08 47.16 MNB (%) -29.54 -30.23 -36.69 - 48.41 204.20 -999.00 327.16 -30.91 MNE (%) 53.90 131.34 42.01 50. 87 254.18 -999.00 396.06 45.14 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -33.72 -0.69 -7.33 -2.27 0.38 6.16 -0.91 -47.20 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 49.93 7.06 8.97 2.53 0.85 6.16 1.62 62.73 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 67.15 12.07 14.36 2.93 1.06 7.11 2.10 79.95 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 234.53 13.18 70.65 14.42 1.77 0.00 7.17 270.34 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 162.03 55.10 52.73 13.30 2.93 13.62 6.04 189.41 Mean_Obs 86.86 5.21 20.20 5.48 0.69 0.00 2.57 133.01 Mean_Pred 53.14 4.52 12.86 3.21 1.07 6.16 1.66 85.82 Std_Dev_Obs 49.18 2.74 15. 93 3.04 0.40 0.00 1.72 46.84 Std_Dev_Pre 39.67 12.76 12. 71 3.08 0.82 3.62 1.15 49.11

Variance 4508.59 145.67 206. 27 8.57 1.12 50.58 4.39 6392.06

R 2 0.01 0.07 0.40 0.66 0.08 -999.00 0.02 0.00

BF 0.70 0.70 0.63 0.52 3.04 0.00 4.27 0.69

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-5q. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the St. Marks Class I

area. SAMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -65.33 -155.89 -5.70 - 36.19 7.23 199.98 -92.52 -53.12 MFE (%) 69.16 155.89 53.89 56.79 89.12 199.98 97.18 56.84

A p -0.06 -0.53 0.24 0.61 -0.16 1920.06 -0.34 -0.03 NMB (%) -40.40 -74.41 0.20 -4.6 3 26.17 1762079.63 -62.69 -34.34 NME (%) 45.02 74.41 50.55 56. 59 110.11 1762079.63 64.18 38.46 MNB (%) -42.17 -83.45 18.88 - 10.13 268.57 113272.12 -57.20 -35.23 MNE (%) 46.35 83.45 58.03 56. 61 322.15 113272.12 62.93 39.24 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -37.22 -3.58 0.04 -0.28 0.23 6.90 -1.93 -47.55 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 41.48 3.58 10.40 3.39 0.98 6.90 1.98 53.27 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 51.84 4.16 14.75 5.69 1.33 7.80 2.30 65.75 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 174.11 17.40 76.59 17.16 4.06 0.01 7.80 207.54 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 162.80 8.26 95.29 27.58 3.41 17.29 5.13 200.98 Mean_Obs 92.14 4.81 20.59 5.99 0.89 0.00 3.08 138.50 Mean_Pred 54.92 1.23 20.63 5.71 1.12 6.90 1.15 90.94 Std_Dev_Obs 34.96 3.53 18. 04 3.86 0.76 0.00 1.60 30.80 Std_Dev_Pre 40.81 2.25 20. 11 7.30 0.89 3.73 1.14 51.92

Variance 2687.22 17.32 217. 69 32.39 1.76 60.83 5.31 4323.43

R 2 0.29 0.65 0.48 0.37 0.09 0.04 0.37 0.22

BF 0.58 0.17 1.19 0.90 3.69 49.29 0.43 0.65

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-32 Table C-5r. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Shenandoah Class I

area. SHEN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -76.03 12.44 -21.00 - 77.27 13.36 175.00 -119.18 -69.71 MFE (%) 84.20 97.89 50.51 78.63 50.24 175.00 119.18 77.03

A p -0.46 -0.13 -0.84 -0.60 -0.75 -999.00 -0.94 -0.36 NMB (%) -49.46 51.63 -43.57 -57. 04 -16.01 -999.00 -80.94 -44.97 NME (%) 56.28 129.69 59.35 58. 47 50.78 -999.00 80.94 51.51 MNB (%) -45.12 149.15 -2.40 -52. 83 59.10 -999.00 -72.31 -41.96 MNE (%) 55.84 198.87 48.56 54. 30 86.79 -999.00 72.31 50.86 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -86.47 3.04 -8.89 -3.12 -0.18 8.24 -2.65 -99.38 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 98.39 7.64 12.11 3.20 0.57 8.24 2.65 113.84 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 117.52 10.84 31.39 4.09 1.17 9.41 3.88 135.13 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 354.08 32.37 150.90 15.51 6.59 0.00 15.30 375.09 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 192.70 28.15 24.29 6.22 1.63 16.00 0.91 240.70 Mean_Obs 174.83 5.89 20.40 5.48 1.12 0.00 3.27 221.00 Mean_Pred 88.37 8.93 11.51 2.35 0.94 8.24 0.62 121.62 Std_Dev_Obs 74.90 6.47 29. 56 2.49 1.30 0.00 2.91 66.32 Std_Dev_Pre 63.95 8.06 6. 22 1.10 0.33 4.63 0.18 79.02

Variance 13811.26 117.59460 985. 14 16.77 1.37 88.53 15.09 18260.59

R 2 0.10 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.23 -999.00 0.01 0.03

BF 0.55 2.49 0.98 0.47 1.59 0.00 0.28 0.58

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24



### Table C-5s. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Shining Rock Class I

area. SHRO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -64.10 -187.59 -31.54 - 28.66 -29.64 199.31 -132.94 -57.06 MFE (%) 68.47 187.59 39.71 36.19 41.93 199.31 132.94 59.79

A p -0.55 -0.85 0.57 0.14 -0.39 151.98 -0.86 -0.52 NMB (%) -44.23 -96.56 -20.83 - 23.28 -29.58 50992.11 -83.16 -41.26 NME (%) 48.75 96.56 33.83 31. 40 38.94 50992.11 83.16 44.09 MNB (%) -42.37 -96.50 -21.93 - 21.05 -19.64 12340.48 -78.61 -39.81 MNE (%) 47.60 96.50 33.53 29. 33 33.81 12340.48 78.61 42.98 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -71.73 -3.00 -3.26 -0.57 -0.31 5.56 -1.51 -80.99 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 79.06 3.00 5.30 0.77 0.41 5.56 1.51 86.54 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 106.33 3.22 6.88 0.95 0.57 5.84 1.73 114.15 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 475.66 6.49 23.94 3.86 2.55 0.06 3.68 518.88 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 214.07 0.96 37.53 4.41 1.56 8.90 0.50 250.07 Mean_Obs 162.18 3.11 15.66 2.45 1.05 0.01 1.82 196.28 Mean_Pred 90.45 0.11 12.40 1.88 0.74 5.57 0.31 115.28 Std_Dev_Obs 77.95 1.22 4. 55 0.73 0.51 0.02 0.88 80.56 Std_Dev_Pre 56.81 0.21 7. 07 0.80 0.28 1.82 0.08 61.81

Variance 11306.41 10.38869 47. 33 0.90 0.33 34.06 2.98 13029.82

R 2 0.11 0.03 0.26 0.24 0.11 0.09 0.21 0.13

BF 0.58 0.03 0.78 0.79 0.80 24.88 0.21 0.60

N 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

### C-33 Table C-5t. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Sipsey Class I area.

SIPS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -70.46 -117.95 -10.05 -80.92 22.60 199.72 -129.72 -48.58 MFE (%) 80.31 143.41 59.66 83.49 59.52 199.72 129.72 60.40

A p -0.26 -0.05 0.81 -0.45 0.37 919.30 -0.72 -0.12 NMB (%) -39.82 -33.47 14.40 - 55.11 43.23 738981.75 -79.24 -28.95 NME (%) 49.60 93.13 62.85 57. 44 76.60 738981.75 79.24 41.90 MNB (%) -41.83 -47.12 12.97 - 54.30 71.45 6291.68 -77.36 -29.54 MNE (%) 53.89 95.39 63.20 57. 30 99.81 6291.68 77.36 44.20 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -51.76 -3.37 3.35 -3.26 0.43 11.39 -2.45 -53.35 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 64.47 9.37 14.63 3.40 0.76 11.39 2.45 77.22 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 76.05 17.21 18.18 3.72 0.99 13.95 2.68 90.66 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 279.55 63.69 41.03 11.07 2.28 0.03 5.08 325.68 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 208.05 60.69 74.21 6.10 3.12 31.20 1.41 286.87 Mean_Obs 129.97 10.07 23.28 5.92 0.99 0.00 3.09 184.32 Mean_Pred 78.21 6.70 26.63 2.66 1.42 11.39 0.64 130.96 Std_Dev_Obs 65.73 16.76 8. 98 1.85 0.45 0.01 1.08 62.72 Std_Dev_Pre 64.39 15.57 20. 92 1.40 0.82 8.24 0.33 87.85

Variance 5783.50 296.22 330. 57 13.84 0.98 194.58 7.16 8218.50

R 2 0.38 0.19 0.24 0.16 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.30

BF 0.58 0.53 1.13 0.46 1.71 2.91 0.23 0.70

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22



### Table C-5u. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Swanquarter Class I

area. SWAN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -56.96 -122.20 -58.99 -76.45 31.37 187.73 -131.45 -49.02 MFE (%) 81.41 156.01 58.99 79.31 74.32 194.88 131.45 62.35

A p 0.03 0.45 -0.79 0.21 1.01 6.38 -0.74 0.00 NMB (%) -24.66 3.84 -52.47 - 50.51 50.46 7507.01 -80.76 -31.38 NME (%) 57.70 93.70 52.47 55. 29 100.20 7623.59 80.76 46.10 MNB (%) -28.04 -19.11 -41.81 - 51.65 183.63 -58.29 -77.44 -29.30 MNE (%) 59.96 125.41 41.81 55.08 214.89 58.29 77.44 45.20 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -20.67 0.29 -12.17 -2.42 0.31 3.93 -2.95 -42.55 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 48.38 6.98 12.17 2.65 0.62 3.99 2.95 62.51 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 58.52 10.49 24.00 2.90 0.87 4.51 3.25 76.28 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 209.85 45.16 128.63 7.73 1.34 1.20 7.26 243.51 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 216.04 65.32 26.40 9.32 2.68 8.88 1.89 244.55 Mean_Obs 83.84 7.44 23.19 4.79 0.62 0.05 3.65 135.60 Mean_Pred 63.17 7.73 11.02 2.37 0.93 3.98 0.70 93.05 Std_Dev_Obs 43.76 9.31 24. 50 1.68 0.34 0.25 1.34 39.17 Std_Dev_Pre 60.46 16.51 6. 37 1.92 0.62 2.16 0.41 60.38

Variance 3425.07 110.06 576. 21 8.44 0.75 20.33 10.56 5818.45

R 2 0.21 0.63 0.38 0.35 0.19 0.12 0.00 0.04

BF 0.72 0.81 0.58 0.48 2.84 0.02 0.23 0.71

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

### C-34 Table C-5v. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Upper Buffalo Class I

area.
UPBU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT MFB (%) -63.22 -94.84 -21.14 -69.02 52.35 191.67 -150.24 -45.58 MFE (%) 70.32 123.99 27.94 69.02 70.13 191.67 150.24 52.57

A p -0.40 -0.20 -0.56 -0.30 0.18 -999.00 -0.92 -0.34 NMB (%) -39.96 -21.91 -20.56 - 50.26 75.18 -999.00 -89.44 -32.00 NME (%) 47.24 99.30 27.44 50. 26 110.32 -999.00 89.44 39.01 MNB (%) -39.30 -4.26 -15.33 -48. 75 150.41 -999.00 -84.89 -29.86 MNE (%) 47.64 119.52 22.99 48. 75 162.88 -999.00 84.89 37.75 MB ( μ g/m 3 ) -40.13 -2.13 -3.40 -2.13 0.87 15.10 -7.97 -48.64 MAGE ( μ g/m 3 ) 47.45 9.67 4.53 2.13 1.27 15.10 7.97 59.30 RMSE ( μ g/m 3 ) 71.44 20.14 8.32 2.49 1.81 17.18 9.76 84.24 Obs Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 273.55 98.02 52.31 7.21 5.34 0.00 20.96 311.47 Pred Max ( μ g/m 3 ) 163.12 78.69 23.01 5.03 6.32 29.04 1.68 204.34 Mean_Obs 100.43 9.74 16.53 4.24 1.15 0.00 8.91 152.01 Mean_Pred 60.30 7.61 13.13 2.11 2.02 15.10 0.94 103.37 Std_Dev_Obs 57.29 21.23 9. 64 1.24 0.96 0.00 5.76 53.33 Std_Dev_Pre 47.58 18.03 5. 84 0.95 1.15 8.38 0.31 57.74

Variance 5103.16 405.65 69. 21 6.20 3.27 295.24 95.35 7097.14

R 2 0.12 0.22 0.35 0.09 0.03 -999.00 0.00 0.04

BF 0.61 0.96 0.85 0.51 2.50 0.00 0.15 0.70

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

### C-35 C.2.3 Class I Area Model Performance Evaluation



### Below we summarize the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance at each of the Class I area within and nearby the VI STAS region for the best and worst 20% days and then for all days during 2002.

C.2.3.1 Sipsey Wilderness Area (SIPS), Alabama

C.2.3.1.1 SIPS Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-3a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-36 Figure C-3b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-37 Figure C-4. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for Sipsey, Alabama and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-38 2.3.1.2 SIPS Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-5a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-39 Figure C-5b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-40 Figure C-6. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for Sipsey, Alabama and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-41 2.3.1.3 SIPS for All Days

Figure C-7. 

### Time series of predicted and observ ed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Si psey, Alabama for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-42 Figure C-7. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Sipsey, Alabama for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-43 2.3.2 Chassahowitzka Wildlife Refuge (CHAS), Florida

2.3.2.1 CHAS Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-8a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-44 Figure C-8b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-45 Figure C-9. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CHAS and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-46 2.3.2.2 CHAS Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-10a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-47 Figure C-10b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-48 Figure C-11. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CHAS and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-49 2.3.2.3 CHAS for All Days

Figure C-12. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-50 Figure C-12. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-51 2.3.3 Everglades National Park (EVER), Florida

2.3.3.1 EVER Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-13a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-52 Figure C-13b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-53 Figure C-14. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for EVER and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-54 2.3.3.2 EVER Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-15a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-55 Figure C-15b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-56 Figure C-16. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for EVER and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-57 2.3.3.3 EVER for All Days

Figure C-17. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-58 Figure C-17. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-59 2.3.4 St. Marks Wildlife Refuge (SAMA), Florida

2.3.4.1 SAMA Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-18a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-60 Figure C-18b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-61 Figure C-19. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SAMA and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-62 2.3.4.2 SAMA Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-20a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-63 Figure C-20b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-64 Figure C-21. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SAMA and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-65 2.3.4.3 SAMA for All Days

Figure C-22. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-66 Figure C-22. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-67 2.3.5 Cohutta Wilderness Area (COHU), Georgia

2.3.5.1 COHU Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-23a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-68 Figure C-23b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-69 Figure C-24. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for COHU and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-70 2.3.5.2 COHU Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-25a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-71 Figure C-25b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-72 Figure C-26. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for COHU and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-73 2.3.5.3 COHU for All Days

Figure C-27. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-74 Figure C-27. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-75 2.3.6 Okefenokee Wildlife Re fuge (OKEF), Georgia

2.3.6.1 OKEF Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-28a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-76 Figure C-28b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-77 Figure C-29. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for OKEF and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-78 2.3.6.2 OKEF Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-30a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-79 Figure C-30b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-80 Figure C-31. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for OKEF and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-81 2.3.6.3 OKEF for All Days

Figure C-32. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation

### C-82 Figure C-32. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-83 2.3.7 Mammoth Cave National Park (MACA), Kentucky

2.3.7.1 MACA Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-33a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-84 Figure C-33b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-85 Figure C-34. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MACA and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-86 2.3.7.2 MACA Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-35a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-87 Figure C-35b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-88 Figure C-36. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MACA and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-89 2.3.7.3 MACA for All Days

Figure C-37. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-90 Figure C-37. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-91 2.3.8 Linville Gorge Wilderness Area (LIGO), North Carolina

2.3.8.1 LIGO Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-38a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-92 Figure C-38b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-93 Figure C-39. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for LIGO and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-94 2.3.8.2 LIGO Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-40a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-95 Figure C-40b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-96 Figure C-41. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for LIGO and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-97 2.3.8.3 LIGO for All Days

Figure C-42. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-98 Figure C-42. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-99 2.3.9 Shining Rock Wilderness Area (SHRO), North Carolina

2.3.9.1 SHRO Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-43a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-100 Figure C-43b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-101 Figure C-44. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for 

### SHRO and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-102 2.3.9.2 SHRO Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-45a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-103 Figure C-45b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-104 Figure C-46. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHRO and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-105 2.3.9.3 SHRO for All Days

Figure C-47. 

### Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-106 Figure C-47. 

### (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-107 2.3.10 Swanquarter Wildlife Refuge (SWAN), North Carolina

2.3.10.1 SWAN Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-48a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-108 Figure C-48b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-109 Figure C-49. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SWAN and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-110 2.3.10.2 SWAN Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-50a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-111 Figure C-50b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-112 Figure C-51. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SWAN and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-113 2.3.10.3 SWAN for All Days

Figure C-52. 

### Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-114 Figure C-52. 

### (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-115 2.3.11 Cape Romain Wildlife Refuge (ROMA), South Carolina

2.3.11.1 ROMA Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-53a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-116 Figure C-53b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-117 Figure C-54. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for ROMA and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-118 2.3.11.2 ROMA Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-55a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-119 Figure C-55b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-120 Figure C-56. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for ROMA and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-121 2.3.11.3 ROMA for All Days

Figure C-57. 

### Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-122 Figure C-57. 

### (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-123 2.3.12 Great Smoky Mountains National Pa rk (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina

2.3.12.1 GRSM Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-58a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-124 Figure C-58b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-125 Figure C-59. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for GRSM and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-126 2.3.12.2 GRSM Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-60a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-127 Figure C-60b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-128 Figure C-61. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for GRSM and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-129 2.3.12.3 GRSM for All Days

Figure C-62. 

### Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-130 Figure C-62. 

### (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-131 2.3.13 James River Face Wilderness Area (JARI), Virginia

2.3.13.1 JARI Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-63a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-132 Figure C-63b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-133 Figure C-64. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for JARI and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-134 2.3.13.2 JARI Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-65a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-135 Figure C-65b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-136 Figure C-66. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for JARI and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-137 2.3.13.3 JARI for All Days

Figure C-67. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at James River (JARI), Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-138 Figure C-67. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at James River (JARI), Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-139 2.3.14 Shenandoah National Park (SHEN), Virginia

2.3.14.1 SHEN Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-68a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-140 Figure C-68b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-141 Figure C-69. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHEN and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-142 2.3.14.2 SHEN Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-70a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-143 Figure C-70b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-144 Figure C-71. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHEN and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-145 2.3.14.3 SHEN for All Days

Figure C-72. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-146 Figure C-72. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-147 2.3.15 Dolly Sods Wilderness Area (DOSO), West Virginia

2.3.15.1 DOSO Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-73a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-148 Figure C-73b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-149 Figure C-74. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for DOSO and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-150 2.3.15.2 DOSO Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-75a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-151 Figure C-75b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-152 Figure C-76. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for DOSO and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-153 2.3.15.3 DOSO for All Days

Figure C-77. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-154 Figure C-77. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-155 2.3.16 Breton Island Wildlife Re fuge (BRET), Louisiana

2.3.16.1 BRET Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-78a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-156 Figure C-78b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-157 Figure C-79. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BRET and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-158 2.3.16.2 BRET Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-80a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-159 Figure C-80b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-160 Figure C-81. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BRET and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-161 2.3.16.3 BRET for All Days

### C-162 Figure C-82. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-163 2.3.17 Caney Creek Wilderness Area (CACR), Arkansas

2.3.17.1 CACR Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-83a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Caney Creek (CACR), Ark ansas for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-164 Figure C-83b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Caney Creek (CACR), Arkansas for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-165 Figure C-84. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CACR and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-166 2.3.17.2 CACR Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-85a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Caney Creek (CACR), Ark ansas for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-167 Figure C-85b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Caney Creek (CACR), Arkansas for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-168 Figure C-86. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CACR and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-169 2.3.17.3 CACR for All Days

### C-170 Figure C-87. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Caney Creek (CACR), Arkansas for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-171 2.3.18 Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area (UPBU), Arkansas

2.3.18.1 UPBU Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-88a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-172 Figure C-88b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-173 Figure C-89. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for UPBU and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-174 2.3.18.2 UPBU Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-90a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-175 Figure C-90b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-176 Figure C-91. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for UPBU and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-177 2.3.18.3 UPBU for All Days

Figure C-92. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-178 Figure C-92. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-179 2.3.19 Mingo Wildlife Refuge (MING), Missouri

Figure C-



###  96... . 

### 

. .



### ٛ ๓ ๓ 〃



### ٛٛٛٛٛٛ 

### MING Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-93a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for SO 4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-180 Figure C-93b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-181 Figure C-94. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MING and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-182 2.3.19.2 MING Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-95a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for SO 4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-183 Figure C-95b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-184 Figure C-96. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MING and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-185 2.3.19.3 MING for All Days

Figure C-97. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-186 Figure C-97. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-187 2.3.20 Hercules Glade Wilderness Area (HEGL), Missouri

2.3.20.1 HEGL Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-98a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-188 Figure C-98b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-189 Figure C-99. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for HEGL and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-190 2.3.20.2 HEGL Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-100a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-191 Figure C-100b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-192 Figure C-101. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for HEGL and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-193 2.3.20.3 HEGL for All Days

Figure C-102. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-194 Figure C-102. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-195 2.3.21 Brigantine Wildlife Refuge (BRIG), New Jersey

2.3.21.1 BRIG Best 20 Percent Days

Figure C-103a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Je rsey for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-196 Figure C-103b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 percent days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-197 Figure C-104. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BRIG and the Best 20 Percent Days.

### C-198 2.3.21.2 BRIG Worst 20 Percent Days

Figure C-105a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right).

### C-199 Figure C-105b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 20 percent days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right).

### C-200 Figure C-106. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BGIG and the Worst 20 Percent Days.

### C-201 2.3.21.3 BRIG for All Days

Figure C-107. 

### Time series of predicted and obser ved SO4, NO3, OM C, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.

### C-202 Figure C-107. 

### (concluded) Time series of pred icted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM 2.5 

### mass across all monitoring days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.