Energy Conservation Standards for

Distribution Transformers

ANOPR Public Meeting

National Impact Analysis

Building Technologies Program

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

U.S. Department of Energy

September 28, 2004

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

Energy Conservation Standards for 

Distribution Transformers 

ANOPR Public Meeting 

National Impact Analysis 

Building Technologies Program 

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy 

U.S. Department of Energy 

September 28, 2004 
ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagram

Market & Markups for

Technology Engineering Equipment

Anal.yr;

is Price

Screening Determination

Ai )P3lysis Life-Cycle

Cost and

PaylDack

NPR

Final Effective\

/ Rule Date

Energy U5e &

End Use LCr td

rharac;tf rization

lPeriocl Analyses,

2

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

ANOPR Analyses Flow Diagram 

filIa'rl<et & Malikups for 

1--_17_

r

e_c.h_ n_o_lo_9_y ___ ..,;. '. Engineering. Equipment 

AnaIY~is ' , . Price 

Screening 1/ Deterrflinatkllil 

~ _ _ ~~_~

~:lI ¥. ls '~-___ _ -d ~ 

..•... \ Erte ~ Use & 

Endl-Jse ~I;: ld .. 

OI,arac*~Jii -at €)fI v: 

Final 

Rule 

\. Effective \ 

.!' Date / 

.,I I 

/ I 

. . ... \ 

'L if -i ycte \ 

'Cost and ' 

Payback 

periocl aJ S'es 

NatiOl;") al 

I'mpact 

Anal"'''''" t .J .... " 

2 
Purpose

n Shipments Analysis

• To estimate distribution transformer shipments over time.

n National Impact Analysis

• To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from higher efficiency

standards levels.

• To estimate the national economic impact on the nation (or the Net Present

Value (NPV)) from higher efficiency standards levels.

3

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

Purpose 

• Shipments Analysis 

• To estimate distribution transformer shipments over time. 

• National Impact Analysis 

• To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from higher efficiency 

standards levels. 

• To estimate the national economic impact on the nation (or the Net Present 

Value (NPV)) from higher efficiency standards levels. 

3 
Issues for Public Comment

® The 0.75 Scaling Rule (ANOPR Issue #5b)

4

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

Issues for Public Comment 

• The 0.75 Scaling Rule (ANOPR Issue #5b) 

4 
Example of National Energy Savings Results:

Product Class 1 - Liquid -immersed, Single-phase (CSL 3)

Annual Energy Savings

0.20

0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034

Year

5

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

Example of National Energy Savings Results: 

Product Class 1 - Liquid-immersed, Single-phase (CSL 3) 

-I/) 

" cu 

:::s 

a 

-I/) 

0') 

c 

os; 

cu 

en 

>-

0') 

... 

Q) 

c 

W 

0.20 

0.18 

0.16 

0.14 

0.12 

0.10 

0.08 

0.06 

0.04 

0.02 

0.00 

Annual Energy Savings 

I 

r. i 1,1 

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 

Year 

5 
Example of Net Present Value Results:

Product Class I - Liquid-immersed, Single-phase (CSL 3)

$1.0

Annual Values

9

$0.5

$0.0 1. e13-- -II-I^-^O^^

-$0.5 -

-$1.0

2007 2017

I I lI

2027 2037 2047

Year

n

Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost

Net Savings

2057 2067

Discounted Annual Values

^^^ri-r^4mriI-1^16 i>ift d

2007 2017

Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost

-Net Present Value

Cumulative: -1.88 Billion

2027 2037

Year

2047 2057 2067

6

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

• • t •• 

Example of Net Present Value Results: 

Product Class 1 - Liquid-immersed, Single-phase (CSL 3) 

... 

Q 

Q 

N 

... 

o 

til 

C 

~ ji5 

til 

.. 

~ 

"0 

Q 

... 

Q 

Q 

N 

... 

0 

til 

C 

~ ji5 

Annual Values 

$1.0 I 

:: atdIlUUUUUIIII u,~ ..... waU ..... H..,........· ... ~ __ ~ ... UI .. U .. II .... 

- ----1 _ Operating Cost Sa\ings 

Equipment Cost 

-Net Sa\ings -$1.0 L-___ ______ ___ ______ --'== __ ====~ 

2007 2017 

$1.0 

$0.5 

$0.0 

-$0.5 

-$ 1.0 

2007 2017 

2027 2037 

Year 

2047 

Discounted Annual Values 

2027 2037 

Year 

2047 

2057 2067 

Operating Cost Savings 

Equipment Cost 

-Net Present Value 

Cumulative: -1.88 Billion 

2057 2067 

6 
Process Flowchart

LCC National

Analysis Energy Savi ngs Results and

Other Inputs National \\ National (Quads)

Energy Economic

Savings // Impact

Shipments

,

National

N t P t V l

Model

e resen a ue

(2001 US $, billion)

7

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

lOC 

Analysis 

fReslljltiS and 

Ofher Inputs 

o~1 

Process Flowchart 

Nationa] 

!-----M ' Energy 

SavJngs ~ 

National 

Energy Savings 

(Quads) 

National 

Net Present Value 

(2001 US $, billion) 

7 
Shipments Model

I II[fll 4 m n

For 2001: Third party estimate.

For years 1977-2000: Proportional to Bureau of Economic Analysis'

Shipments Backcast (BEA) manufacturing quantity index for distribution transformers.

For years 1950-1976: Proportional to Energy Information Agency's

(EIA) electricity sales data.

For 2001: Third party estimate.

Shipments Forecast For Years 2002-2035: Proportional to Annual Energy Outlook

(AEO) 2003 electricity sales data.

Dry-type/Liquid-immersed Proportional to EIA's commercial/industrial electricity sales market

Market Shares share.

Regular Replacement Equipment lifetime distribution - same as in LCC analysis

Market Mean lifetime of 32 years.

For liquid-immersed transformers:

• Low: 0.00

Long -term Purchase Price • Medium: -0.04

Elasticity • High: -0.20

For dry-type transformers:

• 0.00 8

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

Shipments Model 

Input I Assum'ptions 

Shipments Backcast 

Shipments Forecast 

Ory-type/Liquid-immersed 

Market Shares 

Regular Replacement 

Market 

Long-term Purchase Price 

Elasticity 

For 2001: Third party estimate. 

For years 1977-2000: Proportional to Bureau of Economic Analysis' 

(BEA) manufacturing quantity index for distribution transformers. 

For years 1950-1976: Proportional to Energy Information Agency's 

(EIA) electricity sales data. 

For 2001: Third party estimate. 

For Years 2002-2035: Proportional to Annual Energy Outlook 

(AEO) 2003 electricity sales data. 

Proportional to EIA's commercial/industrial electricity sales market 

share. 

Equipment lifetime distribution - same as in LCC analysis 

Mean lifetime of 32 years. 

For liquid-immersed transformers: 

• Low: 0.00 

• Medium: -0.04 

• High: -0.20 

For dry-type transformers: 

• 0.00 8 
Inputs

• Energy Prices

• Marginal energy prices from LCC with trend from AEO

n National Discount Rate

• 3% and 7% real from Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4

® Installed Cost

• Increase in equipment price and installation cost due to standards (LCC average value)

n Annual Electricity Consumption

• Average annual electricity consumption for each design line from LCC

• Primary Energy Savings

• Calculated from site savings using site-to-source factors from NEMS-BT (Building Technologies version

of National Energy Modeling System)

e Transformer Loading

• Root mean square of the hourly transformer loading relative to the transformer capacity from LCC

ii Load Growth

• Fractional increase in load since a transformer was installed (estimated from LCC load growth rate)

n Size Scaling of Losses and Costs

• 0.75 power scaling rule was applied to project losses and costs from one representative unit to

transformers of other sizes within the same design line

9

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

Inputs 

• Energy Prices 

• Marginal energy prices from LCC with trend from AEO 

• National Discount Rate 

• 3% and 7% real from Office of Management and Budget's (OMB) Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4 

• Installed Cost 

• Increase in equipment price and installation cost due to standards (LCC average value) 

• Annual Electricity Consumption 

• Average annual electricity consumption for each design line from LCC 

• Primary Energy Savings 

• Calculated from site savings using site-to-source factors from NEMS-BT (Building Technologies version 

of National Energy Modeling System) 

• Transformer Loading 

• Root mean square of the hourly transformer loading relative to the transformer capacity from LCC 

• Load Growth 

• Fractional increase in load since a transformer was installed (estimated from LCe load growth rate) 

• Size Scaling of Losses and Costs 

• 0.75 power scaling rule was applied to project losses and costs from one representative unit to 

transformers of other sizes within the same design line 

9 
I

70

65

a

. 60

ft

y 55

0

0

50

a,

45

U)

C

40

35

M1A

Input Examples to the National Impact Analysis:

Per Unit Installed Cost and Total Rated Losses for Design Line 7

97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5%

Efficiency

35

10

97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5%

Efficiency

10

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

Input Examples to the National Impact Analysis: 

Per Unit Installed Cost and Total Rated Losses for Design Line 7 

70~--------------------~ 

65 +----------------- --~ 

-

<C 

~ 60--\------------------- --~ o 

--

~ 55+--------------- ----~ 

o 

(J 

~ 50~-------------- ------~ 

CI) 

-

S 45+---------~ --------~ fn 

s:: 

40+---------------------~ 

35+-----~----~----~--~ 

97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5% 

Efficiency 

35~--------------------~ 

-

u; ~ 30 --\---- ------= ......... - --- - - --- I 

::: 

co 

~ 

-

= 25 

fn 

fn 

o 

..J 20 --\--------------- - -------\-- ---- ~ 

CI) 

... 

co 

a:::: 15 ----------------____\_--~ 

co 

... 

o 

.... 10+-----~----~--~~--~ 

97.5% 98.0% 98.5% 99.0% 99.5% . 

Efficiency 

10 
I 111: !'_ --•:n•^^4-

1- -i7 -

The 0. 75 Scaling Rule

(ANOPR Issue #5b)

Used to translate LCC representative unit energy consumption to product

class-specific energy consumption.

Issues

Used to translate LCC representative unit equipment costs to product class

specific equipment costs.

The Department seeks stakeholder comments on the application of the 0.75

power scaling rule.

11

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

The 0.75 Scaling Rule 

(ANOPR Issue #5b) 

Used to translate Lee representative unit energy consumption to product 

class-specific energy consumption. 

Used to translate Lee representative unit equipment costs to product class 

specific equipment costs. 

The Department seeks stakeholder comments on the application of the 0.75 

power scaling rule. 

11 
Other National Impact Issues

The Department seeks comments and recommendations from

stakeholders on any other aspects related to the National Impact

Analysis.

12

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

Other National Impact Issues 

The Department seeks comments and recommendations from 

stakeholders on any ollher aspects related to the National Impact 

Analysis. 

12 
^l!lT^^_0_,•'i"J'_ it^f ir•i^ •'%J'^J

Other ANOPR Issues

The Department seeks comments and recommendations from

stakeholders on any other aspects of the Distribution Transformer

ANOPR analysis.

ssues

13

 EE-RM/STD-00-550 COMMENT 56.10

Other ANOPR Issues 

The Department seeks comments and recommendations from 

stakeholders on any other aspects of the Distribution Transformer 

ANOPR analysis. 

13