MCNAIR PAPER 69

Institute for National Strategic Studies

National Defense University

Reassessing the 

Implications of a 

Nuclear-Armed Iran

J U D I T H S . Y A P H E a n d

C H A R L E S D . L U T E S
About the Authors

Judith S. Yaphe is a senior fellow in the Institute for National Strategic 

Studies at the National Defense University, where she specializes in political 

analysis and strategic planning on Iraq, Iran, and the Gulf region. Prior to joining 

INSS in 1995, Dr. Yaphe was a senior political analyst on the Middle East-Persian 

Gulf for the U.S. Government. She has published extensively on Iraq, Iran, and U.S. 

security policy in the Gulf region.

Colonel Charles D. Lutes, USAF, is a senior military fellow in the Institute 

for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, where he 

focuses on proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, counterterrorism, military strategy, and strategic concept development. Colonel Lutes has served in the 

Strategic Plans and Policy Directorate, Joint Staff, and commanded an operational 

support squadron.

■ ■ ■ ■

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of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 
Reassessing the 

Implications of a 

Nuclear-Armed Iran

Judith S. Yaphe and Charles D. Lutes

McNair Paper 69

Institute for National Strategic Studies

National Defense University

Washington, D.C.

2005
The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within 

are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the 

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Contents

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix

Chapter One

Iran’s Perspective: National Rights 

and Nuclear Weapons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Chapter Two

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators. . . 15

Chapter Three

U.S. Policy Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Endnotes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Appendix A

Timeline of Iran’s Path to Nuclear Weapons . . . . 49

Appendix B

Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status, Risks, 

and Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Appendix C

Walking the Tightrope: Israeli Options in 

Response to Iranian Nuclear Developments . . . . 71

iii

Preface

As this paper goes to press, Iran has just come through its longanticipated presidential election. Despite predictions of a victory 

for a well-known clerical “moderate,” former president and Expediency Council Head Akhbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, the winner was the 

hard-line conservative mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a relative unknown. The terms hard-liner and conservative are used virtually 

interchangeably by many inside and outside Iran; they are relative terms, 

since there are no political parties in Iran, with their meaning dependent 

on context and issue. The election consolidated control of all branches 

of the Iranian government—legislative, executive, and judicial—in conservative hands. It also brought to the presidency for the first time in the 

republic’s history a non-cleric who ran a populist-style campaign attacking corruption and non-Islamic practices that had crept into government 

since the death of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989. 

During the presidential campaign, Rafsanjani had dangled the lure 

of a possible deal on nuclear issues and an opening to the United States if 

elected. His supporters claimed he was a man who would stand up to the 

hard-liners in the Majles (Iran’s parliament) and even to Supreme Leader 

Ali Khamenei, both of whom oppose relations with the United States and 

urge continuation of full-cycle uranium enrichment programs that could 

produce nuclear weapons. These supporters believed Rafsanjani could deliver on these promises, and they argued that were the conservatives—or 

hard-liners—to acquire total control of all branches and institutions of the 

Iranian government, there would be no concessions by Tehran on nuclear 

enrichment or weapons development and no willingness to improve relations with the Great Satan (the United States) or to stop threatening the 

Little Satan (Israel). Other, allegedly equally well-informed Iranians and observers repeated the idea that everyone in Iran, including the conservatives, 


wanted to open a dialogue with Washington as much as the reformists did 

but did not want reformist president Ayatollah Khatami to get the credit for 

initiating actions long anticipated by the Iranian public. 

In contrast, Ahmadinejad, once a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the basij (Islamic religious militants 

who fought in the Iran-Iraq war and function as “morals police” in Iran), 

talked about a return to the principles of the Islamic revolution, called for 

radical economic reforms and social justice, and vowed to build Iran into 

“an Islamic, exemplary, advanced and powerful nation.”1 On nuclear power 

issues, he indicated disappointment with Iran’s relatively weak stance in its 

negotiations with the European Union (EU) but said as well that nuclear 

technology for military purposes was “against our Islamic values.” Lost in 

the debates was the reality that regardless of who won the election, the presidency is mostly a visible and ceremonial office that lacks decisionmaking 

powers; real power is held by the Supreme Leader, the Majles, the military, 

and the judiciary—all of which are controlled by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ahmadinejad could become a lame duck in a muchweakened presidential office, just as his predecessor, President Khatami. 

Such are the uncertainties that surround present-day Iran and in 

particular the future direction of its nuclear diplomacy. In an agreement 

made with three leading European Union (EU) countries—Great Britain, 

France, and Germany—in early 2005, Iran agreed to suspend enrichmentrelated operations in exchange for concessions and assistance from the 

EU. Political leaders in Iran denounced the agreement, and in mid-May 

the Majles passed a measure supporting nuclear weapons development, 

which was quickly approved by the conservative-dominated Council of 

Guardians. In late May, the foreign ministers of the so-called EU–3 held 

another round of meetings with Iran aimed at obtaining Tehran’s promise 

to stop all work on uranium enrichment and the procurement of fissile 

material. In these discussions, the EU representatives offered once again 

to cooperate with Iran on energy and research programs and other benefits, including a promise to support Iran’s application to join the World 

Trade Organization. Hassan Rohani, Tehran’s chief negotiator to the EU

talks, promised Iran would continue to suspend uranium enrichment 

activities, which British Foreign Minister Jack Straw interpreted as a “reaffirmation of Iran’s commitment not to seek nuclear weapons.” Rohani 

also said an agreement with the EU could be reached “within a reasonably 

short time.”2

Once again, however, the possibility of mixed signals arose. Did 

Iran promise to end its search for nuclear weapons, as Jack Straw claimed? 

vi Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
Tehran, which has never admitted to seeking nuclear weapons capability, 

is very likely to deny that and underscore its willingness to suspend temporarily a part of its civilian nuclear program in exchange for meaningful 

rewards. Iranian officials could reject all compromise outright, as they 

have before, and denounce this latest insult to national pride. Meanwhile, 

in Washington, aides to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon reportedly 

presented evidence, including satellite reconnaissance imagery, about the 

Iranian nuclear program to senior U.S. officials, and Israel’s media warned 

of the dire threat when, not if, Iran has a nuclear weapon, according to 

press sources.3 At the same time, Sharon told the Cable News Network that 

Israel would not mount a unilateral attack aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear capability. Iran, Sharon says, is years away from possessing a nuclear 

weapon, but he warned that it was only months away from solving “technical problems” toward building a nuclear weapon. “Once they solve it,” he 

opined, “that will be the point of no return.”4 At this time, it is unclear if 

Tehran will resume meetings with the EU as if there had been no election, 

renege on promised cooperation, or escalate its terms for cooperation. 

We are grateful to many people for their valuable insights in trying 

to sort out these perceptions and inconsistencies as we reexamine the strategic implications for the United States in the event Iran moves ahead to 

acquire nuclear weapons capability. This study draws on expert workshops 

held in the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the National 

Defense University (NDU) in January and February 2005, as well as meetings, interviews, and research conducted at NDU and elsewhere over the 

past several years. We especially wish to thank our NDU colleagues Kenneth Brill, Elaine Bunn, John Caves, Jack Gill, Joseph McMillan, Eugene 

Rumer, Phillip Saunders, and Michael Yaffe for their contributions. From 

outside NDU, we are especially indebted to David Albright, Avner Cohen, 

Michael Eisenstadt, F. Gregory Gause, Philip Gordon, David Kay, Susan 

Koch, Mohsen Milani, Leonard Spector, Gerald Steinberg, Ray Takeyh, 

Kenneth Pollack, and Steven Simon. We acknowledge with grateful 

thanks the efforts of NDU Press, especially Debra Taylor, George Maerz, 

Jeffrey Smotherman, and Lisa Yambrick, to expedite publication. Finally, 

we thank Drs. Stephen Flanagan and James Schear of INSS for their enthusiasm, support, and guidance, and Dahlia Reed, our research assistant, for 

her patience. The wisdom is theirs; the errors, if any, are ours alone.

Judith S. Yaphe

Chuck Lutes

Washington, July 2005

PREFACE	 vii

ix

Summary

I

n 2001, the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) published 

The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran by Kori Schake and 

Judith Yaphe, both then INSS Senior Fellows.5 The study, which drew 

on open sources, postulated that Iran was determined to acquire nuclear 

weapons and the long-range missile systems needed for their delivery and, 

in fact, was well on its way to achieving those objectives. The study then 

examined why Iran wanted nuclear weapons, the threats it perceived, and 

how it was pursuing its goals. The study also addressed questions that had 

only sketchy answers, such as who was in charge of Iran’s nuclear weapons 

programs, what was the doctrine of usage, who would decide on weapons 

use, would they share their new knowledge or capabilities with others 

(including terrorists), and how could suppliers be persuaded to stop aiding Iranian nuclear development. Finally, the study speculated about the 

impact of Iran’s shifting political dynamic—reform-minded candidates 

had won control of the Majles (parliament) and in 1997 and 2001 elected 

one of their own, Ayatollah Khatami, as president—on its strategic planning for a nuclear weapon. Would these political changes prompt Iran to 

change course?

The answer in 2001 was no. Iran did not appear to be halting its 

march toward nuclear weapons capability. There was little sign of domestic debate. Rather, Iranians—regardless of their place as conservatives or 

liberals, hard-liners or reformists on the political spectrum—appeared to 

agree that when it came to threats to national security, Iran should have 

the means to defend itself. Specialists consulted for the 2001 study, like 

their counterparts in 2005, agreed that Iran sought nuclear capability but 

were divided on whether Iran had decided conclusively that it would enter 

the nuclear club or had reached the point of no return in its decisionmaking or technology.6 The 2001 study noted that for Iran, the benefits of 
being able to deal with perceived security threats from Saddam Husayn’s 

Iraq, Israel, and the United States and emerge as the preeminent leader 

of the Persian Gulf and Islamic world far outweighed the disincentives, 

which were considerable. The 2001 study concluded that a nuclear-armed 

Iran would raise the stakes for American engagement in the Middle East 

and Persian Gulf region. The distinction between U.S. foreign policy 

goals, regional interests, and homeland security would be obliterated, the 

Gulf region would become far more dangerous, and U.S. relations with 

Russia, China, and perhaps Europe would be at risk.

To what degree have new information and the passage of time 

altered our understanding of the issue? Without question, much has 

changed since the 2001 assessment was written. Al Qaeda terrorists attacked the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, 

DC, on September 11, 2001. The United States invaded Afghanistan and 

Iraq, the former because al Qaeda terrorists used it to shelter their organization and prepare for operations, and the latter because of Saddam Husayn’s failure to comply with United Nations (UN) Security Council resolutions on giving up his weapons of mass destruction programs and his 

alleged support to terrorist organizations, in particular al Qaeda. Beyond 

9/11 and its aftermath, other developments have loomed large. On the 

political side, Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasir Arafat died 

in 2004, the Palestinians held elections in January 2005, and after nearly 

5 years of confrontation, Israelis and Palestinians may be on the road to 

negotiations. In Iran, conservatives won the majority seats in Majles elections in 2004 and also won the presidential election in 2005, giving them 

control of all branches of the government.

None of these changes, in our estimation and that of the experts 

we consulted, have diverted Iran from its systematic pursuit of nuclear 

technology that could contribute to a weapons program, including uranium enrichment and a heavy water reactor. Of great significance was the 

revelation that the A.Q. Khan network in Pakistan had provided plans and 

technology for Iranian and Libyan nuclear aspirations, a discovery that 

roused European Union (EU) attention and contributed to Libyan leader 

Muammar Qadhafi’s decision to give up his nuclear weapons acquisitions. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as well as independent 

nuclear scientists and Iran itself have confirmed what was long suspected: 

that Iran has been working for the past 20 years on acquiring nuclear technology. The IAEA and the scientists confirm, furthermore, that a number 

of the specific capabilities Iran is developing or seeking are primarily applicable to a nuclear weapons program. And, while Tehran insists it wants 

Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
nuclear power for energy generation—to replace the domestic use of oil 

primarily so that more oil can be exported at profit to Iran—the evidence 

suggests that Iran has long been attempting to achieve self-sufficiency in 

a complete nuclear fuel cycle that would support nuclear weapons production and in long-range missile delivery systems. The latter has been 

achieved; the former may be completed within the next 1 to 5 years or 

longer, according to various estimates.

Views Inside Iran 

Iran’s threat perceptions in 2005 remain much the same as in 

2001. Tehran believes it needs advanced nuclear technology that could be 

used in weapons production for numerous reasons: weapons of mass destruction were used by Iraq against Iran in their 8-year long war; Iraq was 

working on a nuclear weapons device in the 1980s and Iranians assume 

Baghdad will want them again; Israel, India, Pakistan, and the United 

States have them; Iran is strategically isolated and needs self-sufficiency 

to defend itself in the event of attack; and the possession of such weapons 

would give the regime legitimacy, respectability, and protection. All these 

reasons give the regime a substantial interest in pursuing the nuclear option. However, concern about possible intimidation or blackmail by the 

United States is probably paramount in Tehran’s calculus, and the expanded U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf and Central Asia since 

2001 has likely heightened the regime’s sense of vulnerability.

How Iran would cross the nuclear threshold remains important. 

Most specialists believe that Iran would choose to become a virtual nuclear power—that is, its programs and activities will be opaque, it will not 

test, and it will be able to assemble a nuclear weapon quickly from prefabricated components.

Equally important, there are no valid public opinion polls that 

measure Iranian popular reaction to the issue of nuclear weapons. Most 

Iranians seem angry that the international community wants to deny 

them nuclear technology for energy and research capabilities, which they 

see as Iran’s natural right. Their attitude on possession of nuclear weapons, however, is unknown. Most academic specialists on Iran note that 

Iranians tend not to question the government’s judgment on issues of 

national security. There is also a widespread view among specialists that 

a military strike by the United States or Israel aimed at preempting Iran’s 

programs would likely have the unintended consequence of rallying Iranians, most of whom are staunch nationalists, around a regime they might 

otherwise want to replace.

SUMMARY xi
Views Outside Iran

Iran’s neighbors—in particular, Saudi Arabia and the smaller 

Gulf States, Syria, Egypt, and other Arab Muslim states—claim not to 

worry about a nuclear-armed Iran. Some in the region—Egypt, Syria, and 

Libya—abandoned their nuclear efforts because of a lack of resources, 

the possibility of inducements, and/or a well-founded fear of negative repercussions. In our view, Iran’s acquisition would not necessarily change 

their calculations. The Persian Gulf States profess to be more worried 

that an American government, intent on war with Iran, would drag them 

into their fourth regional war in a generation. As for Iraq, the picture is 

less certain. In the short term, Iraq must focus on establishing political 

authority and legitimacy, ending insurgencies, and establishing the rule of 

law. Over the longer term, however, Iraqis are certain to perceive a need 

to match Iranian military capabilities as a purely defensive measure. They 

have already probed the United Nations (UN) for release from the more 

onerous restrictions of the Security Council resolutions passed in 1991. 

Specialists on Russia, China, and Pakistan—Iran’s principal suppliers—say 

these countries see no danger in providing technology, training, and other 

forms of support to Iran, and even if they did, they would do little to stop 

it. In this regard, specialists are pessimistic that China and Russia, at least 

in the absence of a nuclear test, would support the UN Security Council 

taking punitive action against Iran.

For Israel, a nuclear-armed Iran is a clear and present danger. 

Israel takes at face value Iran’s threats to destroy the Jewish state, restore 

Muslim control of the Holy Places, and back a one-state solution: an 

Islamic Palestine in which Jews can live alongside Arabs and Muslims. 

Most Israeli strategists do not question if Israel should seek to remove 

Iranian nuclear facilities; rather, they question when and how. Preemption, say some Israelis, is an option only before Iran crosses the actual 

threshold. They argue that waiting only increases the risk, while a preemptive military strike would set back the Iranian nuclear weapons by at 

least several years, thereby buying time. (Nuclear experts were less sanguine that the dispersed and somewhat redundant Iranian nuclear facilities could be dealt a disruptive blow by a limited Israeli strike.) Buying 

time may also be an Iranian strategy at present—that is, to delay negotiations with the IAEA, put off compliance with Nuclear Non-Proliferation 

Treaty (NPT) obligations, and stall the European Union until such time 

that Iran has completed construction of facilities and is fully ready to 

start uranium enrichment.

xii Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
Israelis see two scenarios—both threatening—if Iran becomes 

a nuclear weapons power. The first is a domino-style arms race in the 

region whereby other Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab 

Emirates, and Egypt, look to acquire their own nuclear weapons. The second is a greater propensity for Iran to pressure Israel with conventionally 

armed surrogates, or, more likely, a Lebanese Hizballah invigorated by 

thoughts of Iran’s nuclear umbrella.

There is a strong predisposition within Israel to consider a “never 

again” strategy that urges preemptive attacks before Tehran can even 

think about attacking Israel. This option is called the Begin doctrine (after 

Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin) and was used to justify the 1981 

preemptive attack on Baghdad’s sole nuclear facility, the French-supplied 

Osiraq reactor.

One thing is certain. Israel and the Gulf Arabs will watch to measure the U.S. reaction to Iranian willingness or reluctance to cooperate 

with the IAEA, remain in the NPT, or opt out of international agreements 

to complete its virtual nuclear bomb.

U.S. Options

In dealing with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran, the United 

States has two basic options: either freeze the Iranian nuclear program 

with hopes of rolling it back (and constraining it to peaceful applications), 

or live with the program while containing its negative impacts. On the 

freeze/rollback side, the prospects for more than a temporary pause are 

not promising, in our estimation. As long as significant sections of the 

Iranian program remain opaque, it will be difficult to gauge the success of 

a diplomatic rollback strategy; and, of course, it would be easier to apply 

a strategy to prevent Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold than to try 

to reverse acquisition after the fact. Granted, a nuclear-armed Iran could 

be subject to increasingly onerous restrictions—ranging from diplomatic 

isolation and economic sanctions to military force and regime change. 

Military strikes or covert action could also be used to change Iran’s strategic direction or provoke regime change. The likelihood of success using 

these means, however, is low. Even if there were to be a new government 

in Iran, it would likely continue to pursue advanced nuclear capabilities, 

including at some point a weapon. However, an overt regime-change 

strategy would carry an extremely high risk that the Iranian regime would 

use its nuclear weapon in a last-ditch attempt to save itself.

Could the United States live with a nuclear-armed Iran? Due to 

U.S. strategic predominance, many experts believe the Iranian regime 

 SUMMARY xiii
would be unlikely to use its nuclear capability overtly unless it faced what 

it perceived to be an imminent and overwhelming threat. An Iran emboldened by nuclear weapons might become more assertive in the region, 

but superior U.S. conventional capabilities and strengthened regional 

partnerships would probably deter Iran from significant mischief, such as 

closing the Strait of Hormuz or attacking U.S. forces directly. The United 

States has options short of war that it could employ to deter a nucleararmed Iran and dissuade further proliferation. These include reassuring 

allies and friends in the region, strengthening active and passive defenses, 

improving preemption and rapid response capabilities, and reenforcing 

nonproliferation incentives and counterproliferation activities. Nevertheless, the lack of confirmable information on Iran’s leaders, particularly on 

how they make decisions, what they fear, if they have a concept of deterrence, or whether they appreciate implicit redlines set by countries with 

whom they have no contact—the United States and Israel—makes forecasting this issue very difficult. 

Finally, while some security experts, predominantly Israeli, fear 

that Iran’s leaders would provide terrorists with nuclear weapons, we 

judge, and nearly all experts consulted agree, that Iran would not, as a 

matter of state policy, give up its control of such weapons to terrorist 

organizations and risk direct U.S. or Israeli retribution. Many specialists 

on Iran share a widespread feeling that Iran’s desire to be seen as a pragmatic nuclear power would tend to rein in whatever ideological impulses 

it might otherwise have to disseminate nuclear weapons or technologies 

to terrorists. There is less agreement, however, on whether the regime in 

Tehran could reliably control all elements within the Iranian system that 

might have the means, motive, and opportunity to do so.

Arguably, the costs of rollback might be higher than long-term 

containment of a nuclear-armed Iran. The United States would be expected to offer incentives to Iran and to governments cooperating with 

its strategic choices in what could be a long period of rollback. Even if 

the United States decides to embark on a rollback strategy, it would have 

to maintain a deterrence strategy while other diplomatic, economic, and 

military options played out. The good news is that many of the capabilities needed for deterrence and containment are the same as those needed 

for more robust military options. That may enable the United States to 

play both strategies for an undetermined length of time.

In our reexamination of the strategic implications for U.S. security 

policy and planning in the event Iran completes plans for nuclear weapons 

development, two sets of questions kept intruding on our research. The 

xiv Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
first involves the discussions between the EU–3 and Iran: What is the full 

extent of the European Union’s bargaining position; are there more carrots 

than sticks; would it remain firm in its dealings with an obstreperous Iran; 

could it possibly succeed in gaining Iran’s commitment to end its efforts to 

acquire the full cycle of nuclear weapons production; and what would happen if the EU effort fails?

In various unofficial meetings between European, American, 

and Iranian scholars, the Iranians have accused the Europeans of betraying them to the Americans in order to improve EU–U.S. relations, which 

had been disrupted by European opposition to the 2003 Iraq war. The 

Europeans have countered that their objection to Iranian acquisition of 

nuclear weapons technology is not directed solely against Iran; rather, it 

is meant to prevent all new acquisition efforts. If Iran crosses the nuclear 

weapons threshold, the European representatives said in unison, then the 

Non-Proliferation Treaty and, indeed, all non- or counterproliferation 

regimes will be finished. Surely, they ask, Iran could understand the great 

danger the spread of nuclear weapons posed to everyone. Clearly, the idea 

that the United States and the Europeans were in consensus on this issue 

had caught the Iranians’ attention. To offer some insight into the delicate 

negotiations between the EU–3 and Iran, we have added to this study a 

timeline describing Iran’s historic path to nuclear power and an appendix 

on “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status, Risks, and Prospects.”7

The second question frequently asked concerns Israel’s perception of an Iranian nuclear threat and its options in dealing with what it 

describes as the greatest danger to its security today. To offer special insight on this issue, we include a paper by Israeli scholar Gerald Steinberg 

entitled “Walking the Tightrope: Israeli Options in Response to Iranian 

Nuclear Developments.”8

 SUMMARY xv

Chapter One

Iran’s Perspective: National 

Rights and Nuclear Weapons

I absolutely offer the world the assurance that Tehran is not after nuclear 

arms but will not forsake its absolute right.9

—Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, December 2004

The IAEA can inspect wherever they wish, any time they want to make certain that Tehran’s use of uranium enrichment is not used to make nuclear 

weapons....Iran has been always pushing for the elimination of nuclear 

weapons. Basically this means that it is forbidden based on our ideology, 

based on our Islamic thinking it is forbidden to produce and use nuclear 

weapons as well as other weapons of mass destruction.10

—Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi, February 2005

Evidence revealed by Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency 

(IAEA), and independent researchers and scholars over the past 

few years indicates that the Islamic Republic of Iran began its efforts to acquire nuclear capability—including weapons production—

nearly 2 decades ago, during its 8-year war with Iraq. While discussion of 

the evidence and technology is beyond the scope of this paper, scientists 

who have reviewed the content of declared programs as well as commercially available imagery of other elements agree that Iran has decided to 

produce nuclear weapons and will soon reach the point where it must 

decide several key issues: what kind of nuclear weapon it wants; whether 

it should continue or temporarily suspend the activities necessary to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU), separate plutonium, and build an 

indigenous nuclear reactor, which are defined as enrichment- and reprocessing-related activities; or whether it should accede to American, British, French, and German demands that it cease these activities.11


If Tehran has decided to go forward with weapons research and 

production—and we think it has—it will need to consider how much 

activity can be carried out as a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation 

Treaty (NPT) and how to upgrade its technology. According to an American physicist studying Iran’s projects, Iran would like access to better technology and more time to complete ongoing projects. Its most advanced 

sensitive nuclear project involves gas centrifuges, sophisticated devices 

to enrich uranium. Its European-origin centrifuge (made by Urenco) is 

out of date, and Iran needs time to build more. In his opinion, Iran could 

decide to pursue an enrichment plan while under NPT safeguards, as the 

treaty permits, thereby delaying the time when it must cease further work 

or break its NPT commitment. When Iran revealed its centrifuge program to the IAEA in early 2003, it had almost reached an industrial scale 

at the Natanz facility, near Kashan in central Iran. It had also violated its 

IAEA safeguards agreement multiple times.12

Few governments or agencies are convinced that the purpose of 

Iran’s large nuclear program is purely peaceful. When Iran declared to the 

IAEA in 2003 that it began its gas centrifuge program in 1985 during its 

bloody war with Iraq, it was widely assumed that this decision was part of 

a planned effort to make HEU for nuclear weapons. Iran claimed that the 

only purpose of its centrifuge program was to make fuel for the Germansupplied Bushehr power reactor, but by 1985 Germany had suspended all 

work at the reactor, at least until the war with Iraq ended. After the war, 

Germany did not resume construction. Ten years later, Russia signed a 

contract to finish the reactor. Yet throughout the decade, even when the 

fate of the reactor at Bushehr was uncertain, Iran accelerated its gas centrifuge program.

Although no one has produced a “smoking gun” proving that Iran 

has a nuclear weapons program, the timing, scope, and long secrecy of the 

program have led many observers to conclude that Iran either had or has 

one. In any case, once it finished its uranium enrichment or reprocessing facilities, Iran could decide to obtain nuclear weapons and proceed 

quickly to produce nuclear explosive materials in these facilities. For these 

reasons, many governments believe Iran should be persuaded to abandon 

at least its activities related to uranium enrichment and reprocessing.13 If 

Iran’s current facilities were preemptively attacked, most observers believe 

Tehran would follow Iraq’s example after Israel attacked its sole reactor 

in 1981: it would pursue nuclear weapons more quickly and with greater 

care, independence, and discretion.

 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
Drivers of Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

As its quest for nuclear capability has advanced, Iranian officials 

and national media have offered a wide range of reasons for developing 

nuclear technology. The standard justification given is that Iran needs to 

develop nuclear power as an alternative energy source because domestic 

demand is rising, supply is stable, and oil at today’s market prices is too 

expensive a commodity to be sold domestically, especially since fuel is 

subsidized. Behind these public statements, however, are a number of 

reasons used by Iran to justify its pursuit of the nuclear option: because 

Iraq was on that path and may well be again at some point; because Israel, 

India, and Pakistan already have nuclear weapons and threaten Iran; because the United States, Europe, Russia, and China have them and, in fairness, Iran should have them, too; because denying Iran nuclear weapons 

condemns Iran to second-class status rather than the leadership role that 

is its natural and national right; and because it needs them for legitimacy 

and regime protection.

Iran does not publicly justify its nuclear ambitions, energy, or 

weapons, simply on the grounds that it lives in a dangerous and unpredictable neighborhood. Iranian officials are careful to reassure their 

immediate neighbors that Iran poses no threat to regional stability and 

would never use its special capabilities to intimidate or influence them. 

Rather, Iranian officials complain that Iran has the same right as those already in possession of these special weapons and that it would use its new 

capabilities to benefit the region and the world. Yet, historically speaking, 

many of Iran’s defense priorities were conditioned by its war with Iraq, 

by the Iraqis’ ability to use chemical weapons more effectively than Iran, 

and by the isolation imposed on Iran by the United States and Iran’s Arab 

neighbors. These governments helped Iraq with money, intelligence, 

and weapons while Iran had to fight alone, without benefit of financial 

and diplomatic support or the opportunity to obtain replacements for its 

American-origin military equipment.

Iranians still feel a sense of isolation—some Iranians call it “strategic loneliness”—years after the end of the war with Iraq, and many believe that the only way Iran can maintain its territorial integrity, restore 

its prestige, and preserve its political survival is through reliance on its 

nuclear capabilities and its ability to be totally self-sufficient in nuclear 

research and production. Iranians were grateful for the international 

community’s insistence at the end of the Kuwait war that Iraq identify 

and surrender all its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and 

Iran’s Perspective 
Decisionmaking in Iran: Continuity or Chaos?

When asked to describe the nature of decisionmaking in their country, Iranians describe a wide range of characteristics.14 One scholar used the terms reactive

and chaotic, saying that decisions were usually made in reaction to events and in a 

confusing manner. Another scholar described an organized and methodical system in 

which deference to the Supreme Leader and national security as determined by the 

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps were always paramount. A third scholar agreed 

with this assessment and added that the Iranian “government” does not control institutions; these are under the direct control of the Supreme Leader who relies on his 

own foreign policymaking machinery and intelligence services rather than government 

ministries. Any deal struck with the Iranian government without the involvement of Supreme Leader Khamenei is unlikely to gain his support and is likely to be sabotaged by 

him. Moreover, Iran’s most powerful state institutions—the Islamic Revolution Guard 

Corps, the Intelligence Ministry, the Judiciary, the Justice Department, and a host 

of vigilante organizations—are unlikely to support a deal unless they are directly involved in the negotiations themselves.

Our scholars listed several factors that frame decisionmaking. They demonstrate that continuity is more important than discontinuity to understand how priorities 

are set in the Islamic Republic. The factors are:

■ regime survival and sustainability of the political system

■ organized chaos, meaning that to be involved in the system is more important 

than actually having influence on its policy 

■ opaque language and ambiguous behavior, so that any political leader who 

maintains these qualities is revered and elevated

■ diversified formal structures of power and creation of informal shadow networks of power, all competing for resources and the attention of the Supreme 

Leader. For every formal structure of government, there is another structure 

behind it scrambling for its share of economic and political spoils and positioned to continue the job if one structure fails.15 Despite ideological affiliations 

on certain points, the clique-ridden nature of Iranian politics means that small 

differences over policy are magnified because intrinsic interests of competing 

groups clash.

■ immunity from external threat but also use of external threats to maintain internal cohesion and control.

 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

weapons and that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions set up a mechanism—inspections and sanctions—to be applied 

so long as Iraq was not in compliance. Iranians watched closely as the 

UN arms inspectors uncovered Iraq’s many compartmented WMD programs, including four separate experiments to build a nuclear weapon. 

Iran today no longer borders a hostile country armed with WMD and 

prepared to use it against its neighbor. Rather, Iran sees in Iraq an unpredictable neighbor that still must comply with all UNSC resolutions 
banning its resumption of WMD programs—a short-term relief but a 

long-term worry. For Iran, the question must become one of Iraq’s future 

strategic outlook. Will Baghdad once again seek these weapons, and will 

its American-influenced government be encouraged to rearm to bolster 

U.S. and European hostility toward the Islamic Republic? Since no one 

knows the kind of Iraq that will emerge, Iran’s leaders seem to believe 

they need to pursue some kind of nuclear hedging.

The Domestic Politics, National Strategy, and 

Foreign Policy of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

In 1997, Iranians and their neighbors welcomed the election of 

Hojatoleslam Mohammad Khatami as president of Iran. Although he was 

a member of the clerical establishment and had served in the 1980s as 

Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, the unassuming Khatami represented nationwide hopes for domestic political and economic reform. 

Moreover, he was seen in the region as a more moderate and reasonable 

authority who would, at minimum, continue his predecessor Rafsanjani’s 

policy of building friendly foreign relations with the Arabs of the Gulf, 

Europe, and possibly even the United States. The hopes were short-lived. 

Khatami won two terms by substantial margins, but his effective power 

never extended beyond the Foreign Ministry. Conservatives under the 

leadership of Supreme Leader Khamenei remained in control of the military, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the intelligence and 

security services, the judiciary, and the press.

Conservative elements currently dominate the government and 

determine all foreign and security policies. They brought the last institution of government—the presidency—under their direct control in the 

June 2005 presidential election. Decisions regarding Iran’s nuclear strategy, doctrine of use, and willingness or reluctance to cooperate with EU

demands for suspension of or an end to work on uranium enrichment are 

apparently made by an inner circle of National Security Council members 

who are close supporters of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Under Khatami’s 

presidency, they included President Khatami, Expediency Council Head 

Rafsanjani, Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani, and IRGC Commander 

Brigadier General Yahya Rahim Safavi.16 Of these, experts on Iranian politics and government believe that the two most influential decisionmakers 

were Khamenei and Safavi. 

Some of these individuals are likely to remain influential under 

an Ahmadinejad presidency. Ahmadinejad, who fought in the Iran-Iraq 

war as a member of the IRGC and the basij, represents a rising generation 

Iran’s Perspective 
of Iranian leaders whose experiences and world view were shaped by war 

and not by revolution.17 Some foreign press accounts describe Ahmadinejad as an advocate of nuclear military power, an assumption based 

perhaps on his IRGC background. It is probably too early to tell how he 

will approach critical issues such as suspension of uranium enrichment or 

relations with the EU and the United States. He may be less extreme in his 

views than Western press and academic sources speculate; he may look to 

bargain on these issues much as Rafsanjani was allegedly considering; or 

he may look to ways to extend negotiations while he, the Supreme Leader, 

and their advisers review options. With virtually no experience in foreign 

affairs or security policy, Ahmadinejad will likely depend on hard-liner 

Majles representatives and IRGC careerists to staff security and intelligence posts.18

The influence of the IRGC is extensive, according to many Iran 

experts. The Guard probably controls and protects nuclear facilities, 

and its leaders—current and retired—may be involved in procurement 

and research and development projects. The first generation of IRGC

leaders has begun to retire, with many seeking new careers in business 

and in government. Of 152 new members elected to the Majles in February 2004, 91 had IRGC backgrounds, while a further 34 former IRGC

careerists now hold senior-level political posts in the government.19

These developments give the IRGC a new influence in determining 

roles and budgets for Iran’s military and security institutions.

How Iranian Conservatives Think about Nuclear Weapons 

Since the election of the conservative-dominated seventh Majles 

in 2004, both opposition to Iran remaining within the NPT and support 

for advanced nuclear technologies, including weapons capabilities, have 

grown. These sentiments increasingly appear to cross factional and ideological boundaries, though Iranian leaders, whether conservative or hardliner, and reformists can be fairly accused of voicing differing and at times 

contradictory opinions. In early 2005, reform-minded President Khatami, 

who usually denied Iran had any nuclear weapons intentions, hinted that 

Iran may be forced to withdraw from the NPT under diplomatic pressure, 

and Defense Minister Shamkhani, who had previously renounced nuclear 

weapons, began talking about nuclear counterattack and preemption. This 

increasing stridency is the result, in part, of Iranian leaders’ perceptions 

of an increased threat of a U.S. or Israeli attack, and reflects the growing influence of current and former senior commanders of the IRGC, 

who stress Iran’s deterrent and retaliatory capabilities. While an Iranian 

 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
team of negotiators was meeting with EU representatives in Europe in 

May 2005, the seventh Majles passed a bill obligating the government to 

develop the kind of nuclear technology—uranium enrichment—used 

in building nuclear weapons.20 The Guardian Council approved the law 

2 weeks later, and Supreme Leader Khamenei called the Majles’ action 

“very timely, effective, and proper.”21 Hard-liner presidential candidate Ali 

Larijani, who opposes negotiations with the EU, called Tehran’s decision 

to suspend sensitive nuclear work as “trading a pearl for a candy bar.”22

Even so, public discourse in Iran is by no means monolithic, and 

Iranian leaders themselves artfully muddy the waters by espousing contradictory themes. Among the arguments most often heard:

■ Nuclear weapons play a role in securing Iran’s independence and 

national security. Khamenei, Defense Minister Shamkhani, IRGC

Commandant Safavi, and former IRGC head Mohsen Rezaie argue 

that Israel and the United States are determined to destroy the 

Islamic revolution and that Iran has no choice but to continue its 

nuclear program and aggressively defend itself. Expediency Council Head Rafsanjani usually sides with them and has commented 

that possession of nuclear weapons would substantially enhance 

the status and bargaining power of Muslim countries, yet he has 

also hinted in preelection interviews that he is the only candidate 

who could negotiate with the EU and the United States and stand 

up to Khamenei on this issue. These hard-liners accuse the negotiators of being incompetent and making significant technical and 

legal concessions to the Europeans. Rezaie and other hard-liners also claimed that Iranian officials had turned over significant 

quantities of secret intelligence information to the EU, thereby 

undermining Iran’s “deterrent capability.”23

■ Nuclear weapons breed insecurity. Khatami, Foreign Minister 

Kamal Kharrazi, and UN envoy Mohammad Javad Zarif argue 

that Iran does not want nuclear weapons because it has been a victim of weapons of mass destruction. They favor negotiations with 

the EU and claim that the negotiations have effectively prevented 

the emergence of an international consensus against the Iranian 

nuclear program.

■ Nuclear weapons are contrary to Islamic principles, but the country 

has a right and a need to acquire nuclear technology and must be 

treated fairly. The presidential election campaign sharpened what 

Iran’s Perspective 
 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

little public discourse there was on the issue of nuclear power for 

energy and/or weapons purposes. Khamenei, Khatami, and Ahmadinejad have said publicly that nuclear weapons have no place 

in Iran’s national security doctrine because of Islamic principles. 

Some Iranian officials claim that the Supreme Leader issued a 

fatwa banning the use of nuclear weapons (no apparent mention of 

acquisition), but a text has not been published on his Web site, and 

there has been no public debate on the issue. Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Hassan Rohani, a central figure 

in the negotiations with the EU, said in early February 2005 that 

“producing weapons of mass destruction is not part of Iran’s defense strategy and high-ranking state officials have repeatedly said 

so. The Supreme Leader has said that the production or possession 

of such weapons are against Islamic law.”24 Rohani is a prominent 

figure in the conservative Combatant Clerics Association, which 

supports the Supreme Leader. He and Rafsanjani argue that Iran 

needs nuclear technology to develop itself to ensure that it would 

not be unfairly treated while engaging in negotiations with the EU

and Russia. Rohani could not have taken a position favoring negotiations without Khamenei’s approval. One scholar believes that 

Khamenei has directly controlled the course of the negotiations, 

deliberately sidelining Khatami and the government. Others agree, 

noting that no Iranian official would have been able to undertake 

any kind of negotiations with the EU or the IAEA without Khamenei’s explicit endorsement.25

Implications for Iran’s National Strategy and Foreign Policy

Most experts agree that Tehran is not yet ready to complete 

negotiations with the EU or the United States that could put their hardearned gains at risk without compensation. When the EU talks resume in 

late summer 2005, Iran may once again reject limitations on its nuclear 

ambitions, but it almost certainly believes the United States has been behind the EU efforts from the beginning of their talks. Iranians involved 

in meetings with American scholars profess interest in the Americans’ 

suggestions for joint ventures in nuclear technology and may believe the 

United States is behind these private probings.26 Other Iranian politicians or specialists are probably looking for signals of what the United 

States will pay for Iranian cooperation. Iranians have a long history of 

resistance to outside intervention, manipulation, and betrayal that makes 

them wary of any foreign dealings. They are especially suspicious of 
American intentions, given the U.S. role in overthrowing Prime Minister 

Mohamed Mossadegh in 1953, shoring up a weak shah and arming him 

with expensive weapons systems, rescuing Iraq during the bitter war with 

Iran, ignoring Iraq’s use of WMD on its soldiers and cities, and helping 

Israel to occupy Muslim land. There probably is a degree of unease as 

well because of pro-American sympathies among Iran’s educated and 

professional elites, many of whom were educated in American schools 

and universities and are knowledgeable of Western and American political philosophies and social freedoms.

Several strategic questions emerge from this picture of political 

uncertainty.

First, will the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the current regime 

make Iran more or less aggressive within the region or beyond it? There is 

much debate but no consensus on this issue among specialists.

■ Some contend that Iran will become more aggressive in pursuit of 

its interests in the Gulf and more intimidating in its demands for regional cooperation. An assertive Iran could demand that U.S. bases 

in the region be closed, or it could threaten to resume its efforts to 

export the revolution as it did in the early 1980s when it tried to 

sabotage U.S.–friendly facilities and regimes in the Gulf. It could 

become more assertive in oil policy, more anti-Israel, or more 

meddlesome in Iraqi or Israeli-Palestinian affairs. On the other 

hand, some Iranian scholars argue that a nuclear-secure Iran will 

be more moderate in its foreign and security relationships and that 

a more powerful Iran is actually a less dangerous Iran.

■ Others stress that Iran has an inferiority complex, wants nuclear 

weapons for psychological comfort and to ensure regime survival, and therefore would base its nuclear strategy on defensive 

deterrence. Iranians, they say, recognize that use of nuclear 

weapons against Israeli or U.S. targets would be suicidal. They 

also point out that such use would be historically uncharacteristic; after all, Iran has not invaded or attacked another country 

for over 150 years. These latter observers predict that a nucleararmed Iran would not be any more aggressive than it currently is, 

would have better relations with the United States, and would be 

less likely to support terrorist organizations.

In either case, possession of nuclear weapons is likely to affect 

Iran’s behavior in the region. The United States must at least hedge against 

Iran’s Perspective 
the possibility that a nuclear-armed Iran could become more aggressive in 

pursuit of its interests in the Gulf and more intimidating in its demands 

that the region share its vision of a U.S.-free Gulf.

Second, how will Iran cross the nuclear threshold, and what domestic and international factors might influence this decision? Iran could cross 

the nuclear threshold transparently or opaquely, by testing, or as a virtual 

nuclear power having all the components but leaving them unassembled. 

Clearly, the way in which an Iranian regime decided to cross the nuclear 

threshold would affect its management of domestic and international reactions to its ownership.

■ Most specialists believe Iran would probably not test a nuclear 

weapon, although it regularly tests its ability to launch longer–range 

missiles. Iran’s past behavior in supporting terrorist groups and conducting clandestine operations suggests it would cross the threshold opaquely and be a virtual nuclear weapons power. Area specialists agreed that opacity would allow Iran plausible deniability and a 

public relations edge. Moreover, it throws responsibility for proving 

its illicit acquisition of nuclear weapons on U.S. allegations and 

anti-Iranian sentiment.

■ Surreptitiously crossing the threshold, however, would deny the 

regime the domestic prestige that it associates with this accomplishment. Disclosure after the fact would make it harder for this 

or a future regime to defend the step on purely defensive grounds.

Third, would regime change in Iran alter its nuclear ambitions? 

Regime change could occur through the death or replacement of the 

Supreme Leader by a successor with less control over the IRGC or with 

a more pronounced taste for nuclear weapons, or election of reformminded leadership. In either case, however, most regional specialists anticipate no significant change in further development of nuclear weapons 

technology or compliance with the NPT and other international nonproliferation agreements.

■ Support for the acquisition of advanced nuclear technology crosses 

ideological and factional lines. Iran scholars question whether 

Khamenei or his predecessor Ayatollah Khomeini approved Iran’s 

possession and use of other weapons of mass destruction (chemical). They are uncertain, too, whether Khamenei has issued a fatwa 

sanctioning nuclear weapons or simply said they were un-Islamic. 

10 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
Few believe that a more reformist-minded government would 

deny its right to take any measure it deemed necessary for national 

security. More broadly, press commentaries suggest Iranians increasingly resent foreign efforts to shape their policies on nuclear 

energy or deny them what is seen as a natural and national right.

■ Considerations of regional prestige would also weigh upon the 

choices of any future government. If Iran were to step publicly over 

the nuclear threshold, it would trumpet its interest in sharing its 

new knowledge and technical advances with other Muslim countries. Even now, Iranian leaders speak publicly about sharing their 

technology and bringing the benefits of nuclearization to those less 

fortunate. Except for Israel, few foreign observers believe this 

means sharing nuclear weapons or other WMD assets with terrorist groups.

Finally, could a precipitating event—such as a preemptive attack 

by Israel or the United States, or the threat of regime change—push Iran 

into becoming a nuclear power, or is it determined to go there anyway?

Clearly, no one can predict with any confidence what the full consequences of such an event would be, but the potential for unintended 

consequences is great:

■ A preemptive attack, experts assume, would strengthen regime 

support. Most Iranians would rally around a regime under siege by 

foreign elements, even if the regime is unpopular. Persian nationalism would outweigh grievances against the mullahs. An attack 

would probably not eliminate all facilities or eliminate Iran’s capability to launch some sort of counterstrike. Avowed possession 

of nuclear weapons would solidify the rule of the Islamic Republic 

and could demoralize regime opponents at home or in exile.

■ The United States and Israel would be held responsible for any 

preemptive attack, regardless of deniability. This would increase 

the risk of terrorist retaliation for both. Iranian surrogates, such 

as Hizballah in Lebanon and Palestinian extremist factions, 

could retaliate, and organizations linked to al Qaeda would certainly use this evidence of Christian-Zionist collusion against 

Muslims to win more recruits, rally anti-American demonstrations, and encourage terrorist operations.

Iran’s Perspective 11
■ The balance of power within the Iranian regime would shift further to the right. The hard-liners would claim vindication for 

their anti-American views, and the roles of the IRGC and internal 

security elements as the ultimate guarantors of Iranian national 

security would be confirmed, to the detriment of the regular army 

and civil society. Decisionmaking on security issues and nuclear 

weapons procurement would be determined by an even more secret intra-governmental body than currently exists. There will be 

no impact on internal demands for reform and no reforms.

What We Do Not Know about Each Other’s Intentions

It is worth emphasizing that the foregoing judgments, while informed by expertise, are still very speculative. Twenty-six years after the 

revolution that removed the shah and established Islamic government in 

Iran, major gaps in our understanding of the country remain. We know 

little about how Iranian leaders make their decisions, what factors influence them, or what understanding they have of U.S., European, or Israeli 

“redlines” regarding actions Iran might take. We lack information on their 

perceptions of Iran’s nuclear options and strategy, including how nuclear 

weapons might be used. Individuals and committees in charge of supervising political and financial activities advise the Supreme Leader, decisions 

are made collectively, and there seems to be a loose system of checks and 

balances, all of which stand in contrast to the autocracy practiced by the 

shah. Recent political developments in Iran—in particular the growing 

power of the conservative faction—indicate the circle of consensus-makers 

is narrowing, as is popular participation in politics, but not to the extent 

that the Iranian government functions as a single actor.

Iranians are probably equally uncertain what options the United 

States is considering and the actions it wants to deter them from taking. Is it simply a matter of getting Iran to limit itself to nuclear energy 

rather than weapons production? If Iran agrees to forgo production of 

nuclear weapons, would the United States be satisfied? Or is Washington intent on regime change, and would it matter in Washington if the 

regime in Tehran changes? Could any modifications occur in Iran short 

of regime change that could mitigate American hostility? What would 

it take to change the U.S. Government’s hostility to Iran? Do the Israelis 

want Iran’s destruction? To what extent would the United States serve 

Israel’s interests, and does it see American and Israeli interests as the 

same or different?

12 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
The lack of direct communication between Iran and the United 

States, Israel, and its own neighbors makes Iran’s inability to recognize 

their redlines a great danger. Successful deterrence depends on the ability 

to understand the other’s thinking and accurately anticipate its behavior.

Iran’s Perspective 13

Chapter Two

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators

If one day, the Islamic world is also equipped with weapons like those that 

Israel possesses now, then the imperialists’ strategy will reach a standstill because the use of even one nuclear bomb inside Israel will destroy everything. 

However, it will only harm the Islamic world. It is not irrational to contemplate such an eventuality.27

—Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, December 14, 2001

Israeli Options Toward a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Israeli civilian and military officials as well as academics view 

a nuclear-armed Iran with great trepidation. Israelis take at face value 

the threats from Iran to drive them out of Palestine or place them under 

Muslim rule in a unitary state, to liberate Jerusalem, and to restore the 

Palestinians to their homeland. Scarcely mentioned are the fact that the 

shah was open to engagement with Israel28 or the possibility that Iran’s 

hostility toward Israel could ever waver. In fact, however, popular sentiment in Iran today appears divided, with some favoring ties with Israel, 

and others, influenced by the visible suffering of the Palestinians under 

occupation, opposing ties.

What Israelis cannot overlook are the terrorist operations against 

Israeli targets by Hamas and Palestine Islamic Jihad, both Palestinian factions receiving Iranian aid, and the Lebanese Hizballah, created by Iran 

in the early 1980s as a surrogate for terrorist operations against Western, 

U.S., Gulf Arab, and Israeli targets. For the Iranian Islamic Republic, 

Palestinian suicide bombers are not terrorists; they are freedom fighters and therefore worthy of assistance. For Israelis, Iran and its surrogate 

Hizballah in Lebanon are real and not merely existential threats. Hizballah operations against Israeli targets, cross-border attacks, even the flight 

of an unmanned drone across the border are all extensions of the Iranian 

15
threat. For Israelis, then, it takes no leap of imagination to see Iran providing Hizballah or the Palestinians with weapons of mass destruction or 

being willing to use nuclear weapons against the Jewish state. This worry 

is underscored by Iran’s development of its Shahab-3 missile, which has 

sufficient range—over 1,300 kilometers—to reach anywhere in Israel.

The “Never-Again” Principle

Despite the consensus that exists in Israel about the nature of a 

nuclear threat from Iran, there is debate over how Israel should react. If 

one assumes that Iran has not yet crossed the nuclear threshold and that 

its facilities are known and vulnerable, then many Israelis support a preemptive strike by Israel or the United States. They argue it does not matter that all the targets cannot be identified and that there probably will be 

collateral damage; it will be enough to set Iran back a few years, just the 

way the Israeli attack on the Iraqi Osiraq reactor in 1981 delayed Baghdad’s nuclear ambitions. Those who argue for attacking while Iran is still 

in transition cite the Begin doctrine. As described by one Israeli historian:

On June 9, two days after Israel destroyed Iraq’s reactor, Prime Minister 

Menachem Begin had a press conference and praised the raid and justified it on moral and legal and defense grounds. Begin alluded to the 

Holocaust and what kind of Holocaust a single Iraqi atomic bomb could 

bring against Israel, and ended by evoking the memory of the Holocaust 

and invoking “never again” as the ultimate justification for the preemptive strike. Begin said never again will another Holocaust happen in the 

history of the Jewish people. In another interview a few days later, he said 

this attack will be a precedent for every future government in Israel. The 

theme was repeated by Sharon as defense minister. This became known as 

the Begin doctrine. It is understood as a broad national commitment to 

deter hostile neighboring countries from acquiring nuclear weapons. In 

the wake of the attack (Osiraq), it was understood as preemptive.29

Is the Begin doctrine still considered relevant in Israel today? 

This Israeli scholar frames the question in terms of physical relevance, effectiveness and consequences, and political prudence. Those supporting 

a repeat of the operation stress that it was relevant, effective, and decisive. 

Those who question its effectiveness note that Osiraq, which was a single 

facility not then operational, was relatively easy to eliminate; by contrast, 

Iran has dispersed sites and may be close to enrichment, which makes 

eliminating the threat more difficult and dangerous. Moreover, Iraq was 

unable to respond to the Israeli attack, but Iran has retaliatory and air 

16 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
defense capability. For this Israeli, his country is not alone in facing the 

Iranian threat, and, in his opinion, the IAEA has become a more effective 

mechanism for dealing with Iran. Admitting that he represents the minority point of view in Israel, this scholar also argues that Israel “should 

find a way to deal with its nuclear weapons openly. Unless Iran moves 

abruptly, Israel will continue with its policy of nuclear opacity.”30 We assume that openly refers to both Iran and Israel going public with their 

nuclear weapons arsenals and intentions, rather than maintaining a policy 

of deliberate ambiguity or opaqueness.

The Domino Principle

Another Israeli scholar, who is closer to the government, describes his concern about a domino effect in the region if Iran crosses 

the nuclear threshold.31 If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, he argues, then 

Egypt, Syria, Turkey, Algeria, Libya, and Saudi Arabia will seek them, 

too. Israel is a small and vulnerable country, he opines, with no strategic 

depth, a small population, and few means of protecting itself in a hostile 

environment. In this view, Iran is the ultimate rogue state. It has a regime 

that does not behave rationally, is obsessed with Israel as the Zionist 

enemy, and poses an existential threat to Israel. The lack of communications between Israel and Iran makes it difficult to establish a controlled 

deterrence relationship, as existed during the Cold War between Washington and Moscow.

As noted below, the domino theory is advanced primarily by Israeli experts. Accepting that it is a dominant concern within Israel, what 

options do the Israelis have for dealing with the problem? Conceptually, 

the list is fairly long: military preemption, international negotiations and 

arms control regimes, expanding missile defenses, deterrence, and pursuit of formal U.S. or even North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) 

security guarantees. While current Israel Defense Forces operational 

limitations for multiple, long-range preemptive strikes against key facilities were noted, a military analyst warned that if Israel decides it has 

the political will for preemption, then the requisite military capabilities 

would be developed toward that end. Israel probably considers military 

preemption to be its most realistic and surest option, but most experts 

are skeptical that Israel has the capability for such a distant series of 

strikes. For the more conservative Israeli pro-Likud scholar, once Iran 

has crossed the threshold, it will be too late for preemption or preventive 

action. He contends that most Israelis place little faith in outside negotiators or intermediaries, especially when it comes to security issues. They 

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators 17
are uncertain about the ability of the IAEA or the EU to negotiate with 

Iran or to compel compliance to treaty obligations, and they are unwilling to risk their security to international frameworks, such as the NPT. 

As for attacks by surrogates, such as Hizballah, Israel prefers to hold state 

actors responsible so that Iran and Syria are held accountable when Hizballah attacks Israel. For most Israelis, nuclear weapons are the ultimate 

international deterrent. And like most Israelis, this scholar concludes 

that “Dimona has brought us peace.”32

If Iran were to cross the nuclear threshold by testing or with a 

declaratory policy, other difficult questions arise. Can Israel maintain its 

nuclear ambiguity if Iran is a declared nuclear power? Can a country have 

a credible second-strike capability without testing a nuclear warhead? The 

more liberal Israeli historian assumed that once Iran tests, Israel would 

have to test as well, and the meaning of deterrence as a strategy would 

change. If Hizballah comes under the umbrella of an Iranian nuclear capability, how does Israel deter it from becoming more dangerous?

How to create a stable deterrent balance would be the major 

worry. If one subscribes to the theory, as do most Israelis, that the acquisition of nuclear weapons leads a country to become more aggressive, then 

clearly Israelis have cause for concern. Many, however, do not believe that 

the main worry is “a bomb out of the blue.” Rather, they fear a crisis that 

is not inherently nuclear in nature acquiring a nuclear dimension. What 

might cause Iranian decisionmakers to miscalculate during a nuclear crisis? The Israeli scholars worry that Israel cannot develop a secure deterrent relationship if it cannot communicate with Iran. For Israel, the longterm alternative of having nuclear weapons in the region possessed by a 

country that does not recognize its legitimacy and urges its destruction is 

not an option. In the end, the Israeli scholars agreed that Israel’s decision 

to act would depend on American commitments to Israel’s security and 

determination not to allow Iran to become a nuclear weapons state. From 

an Israeli perspective, much depends upon the timing and circumstances 

surrounding possible action and the stance taken by the United States.

There Goes the Neighborhood: 

Umbrellas, Arms Races, and Indifference

What kind of reactions would Iran’s nuclear acquisition trigger 

elsewhere in the region? Among the six Arab states that are members 

of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman—few profess to see a 

18 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
nuclear-armed Iran as a greater threat than Iran without nuclear arms. 

After all, they have lived with India and Pakistan, both non-signers of 

the NPT whose nuclear weapons have been aimed at each other. They 

reject the argument that Iran with nuclear weapons is a threat, while 

Israel with its undeclared nuclear weapons is not a threat. The GCC

states do not seem to grasp the argument of the EU and the IAEA that 

if Iran were allowed to pursue nuclear weapons technology, then other 

governments would also resume efforts to acquire nuclear capability, 

international agreements on arms control would become meaningless, 

and arms control agreements such as the NPT would lose relevance. 

Similarly, the issue of risk to Israel is immaterial to them.

If a nuclear-armed Iran is not, strictly speaking, a Gulf issue, the 

GCC states do not see it as an option they must anticipate or help resolve. 

If the United States or Israel sees the threat as serious, they say, then those 

states should take care of it. Most Gulf Arabs seem to prefer letting the 

United States and Israel resolve the Iran problem, but they also know that 

if a military option is pursued, then their region would be in crisis and 

they would have to deal with the consequences. They blame the United 

States and Iran equally for the lack of regional security, and they deplore 

the absence of direct contacts between Tehran and Washington. In their 

opinion, this lack of dialogue will ultimately lead to a military confrontation. They see Iran as determined to pursue nuclear weapons at any cost, 

and some even believe Iran has made its decision to pursue nuclear weapons and is at the point of no return.

Gulf Arab leaders say they are more worried that the United 

States is determined to pursue military confrontation with Iran, which 

would pose an increasing danger to their security and well being. They 

worry about the risk of a region-wide war between the United States, their 

security partner and guarantor, and Iran, their largest and most powerful 

neighbor. If this occurred, it would be the fourth major regional conflict 

since 1980, when Baghdad invaded Iran.33 They profess not to be worried 

about “democracy” in Iraq or a nuclear-armed Iran, and they urge Washington to open a dialogue with Iran, not rush to create democracy in 

Iraq, and to consult with their leaders. Gulf elites acknowledge that they 

are consumers rather than providers of security and that in the event the 

United States were to go to war with Iran, they would have no choice but 

to side with it. There is no apparent public debate on this issue.

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators 19
The Dangers of Unbalanced Power

For the Gulf States, the question of a nuclear-armed Iran must 

be seen in the larger context of changing power balances—that is, how 

to confront a stronger and more intimidating Iran at the same time Iraq 

is militarily and politically weak. The GCC states and the United States 

have long preferred a security strategy based on the concept of balance of 

power. Since the British withdrawal from the Gulf in 1971 through 1990, 

when Saddam invaded Kuwait, U.S. regional security policy has tried to 

keep a minimal force presence in the region, using local surrogates and 

the threat of military intervention to keep the peace. From 1971 through 

1978, the United States used the twin pillars strategy—based on its allies, 

the shah of Iran and the Al Sa’ud of Saudi Arabia—to maintain stability effectively in the Gulf. In the 1980s, responding in large part to pleas 

from the six Gulf rulers, the United States aided Iraq in its long war with 

Iran, and then tilted briefly toward Tehran out of concern for the fate of 

Americans held hostage by Hizballah in Lebanon and following requests 

from Israel.

Gulf Arab rulers saw Saddam as their champion against Iranian 

efforts to export the revolution and depose them. They were not enthusiastic about the war in 2003 to remove Saddam Husayn from power. For 

most rulers, Saddam was a defanged tyrant, a bully kept in check by the 

United States and international opprobrium but whose loss was felt by 

those seeking an Arab power to balance a strengthening Iran. For their 

populations, Saddam was misunderstood, a hero for standing up to the 

Americans, the only Arab leader to try to “do something” to help the Palestinians fight Israel, and the only Muslim ruler to stand up to the ayatollahs of Iran.

Gulf leaders have several fears regarding the loss of balance in the 

region. First, they worry more about who rules Iraq rather than how Iraq 

is ruled. They have little interest in how democracy will evolve in Iraq, 

but they do fear the consequences of a Shia-dominated government; Iraq’s 

Shia community represents more than 60 percent of the population, and 

Gulf Arabs assume that Iraq will be ruled by an inexperienced, religiously 

volatile group of religious extremists and clerics who will tie Baghdad 

closely to Tehran. They misread Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the Iranian-born 

preeminent Shia cleric in Iraq who favors a government under Islamic law 

but opposes mullahs in government, but they correctly measure his popularity among Shia in Iran (an estimated 2 million to 3 million followers, 

according to some Iranian scholars) and among Shia communities in the 

20 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
Gulf States, where Najaf-trained clerics have long been influential. This 

last situation is especially worrying in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, where 

approximately 20 percent of the populations are Shia Arab, and Bahrain, 

where nearly 75 percent may be Shia.

Second, Gulf leaders worry that the United States is helping create 

a crescent of Shia-dominated governments that will strengthen Iran and 

weaken the ability of the Sunni Arabs to defend themselves. Many Gulf 

Sunni Arabs see the United States as intentionally encouraging Shia rule 

in Iraq to keep the country and the region weak and controllable. Some 

argue that U.S. support for Shia governance in Iraq and warnings about 

the dangers of a nuclear-armed Iran are intended to keep the Gulf States 

weak and dependent on U.S. security assistance. The crescent begins in 

Lebanon, continues through Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, 

and ends in Tajikistan.34

Finally, the Gulf States see danger in a resurgent Iran. This danger 

stems from the renewed revolutionary zeal of the conservatives, reawakened Persian nationalism, and Iranians’ assumption that they are the 

natural leaders of the Gulf—all of which makes the Gulf Arabs chary of 

both Tehran and Washington. Gulf rulers welcomed the election of President Khatami in 1997 and 2001. They saw government in Iran becoming 

more tolerant and forgiving, willing to accept the status quo in the region 

in exchange for recognition of the legitimacy of Iran’s government and its 

leadership role in the region. The Gulf Arabs may have been uncomfortable with Iran’s assumption of a dominant role in the “Persian” Gulf just 

as it had exercised hegemony under the shah, but they also welcomed 

an end to Iranian efforts to subvert their governments, at least overtly, or 

influence decisionmaking. They ignored Iranian demands to be included 

in regional policy and security talks and to throw out American forces. 

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, in particular, welcomed agreements on security 

issues (policing, drugs trafficking, arms smuggling), and Iranians behaved 

properly for the most part when on hajj (the annual pilgrimage to Mecca 

required of Muslims at least once in a lifetime) in Saudi Arabia.35

In the end, the GCC states believe they need a protector from 

outside the region to survive. They believe that their only strategic option is to side with the United States. Despite a professed dislike of the 

Bush administration, unease with Iraq, and unhappiness with the direction of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and Persian Gulf region, 

there is consensus among these Gulf Arabs that only the United States can 

be counted on to protect them, and that Iran—with or without nuclear 

weapons—is and will always be a constant strategic worry.

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators 21
Neighborhood Options to a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Iran’s neighbors admit they see few options in confronting a 

nuclear-armed Iran. They could ignore it, hide under a greater power’s 

nuclear umbrella or behind its theater missile defense system, or acquire 

their own protection (and thereby start a new arms race). Each option has 

limitations and constraints:

■ Ignore Iran? Iran’s neighbors have tried ignoring it since the 1979 

revolution, only to find themselves confronted by threats of Iranian-orchestrated opposition movements or outright terrorism. 

The last decade has been relatively peaceful, and Gulf Arabs are 

loath to provoke their increasingly powerful neighbor to renewed 

hostility by objecting to its acquisition of nuclear weapons. Besides, they do not see themselves as targets of Iran.

■ Accept U.S. protection? Opposition to American occupation of 

Iraq is a common cry in the Gulf, and no Gulf government wants 

to appear to be providing the United States with military bases, 

assistance, or access to facilities. Moreover, reliance on the United 

States for defense against other regional states has come to be seen 

by many in the region as an admission that regimes are incapable 

of providing for the national security. The Gulf dilemma is profound: acknowledge they need American protection and military 

presence, yet risk growing opposition if they do so. Patriot missiles 

were popular in the Gulf following their apparent successes in the 

war for Kuwait, but Gulf reaction today to Iranian threats or use 

of nuclear weapons against any target will depend on the U.S. response to a nuclear event and to how it backs up its commitments 

to Gulf security. Gulf Arabs fear that the United States will take 

them to war with Iran and admit they will have no choice but to 

support the United States.

■ Go nuclear? Several Gulf governments—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, 

Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—have the money and linkages to nuclear suppliers, such as Pakistan, and could afford to 

purchase nuclear weapons systems, should they become available. 

They lack the skill and personnel to manage these systems and 

would have to rely on the sellers for assistance to maintain and use 

any such acquisition. None have shown an inclination to do so, 

nor is there any indication they would host U.S. nuclear weapons. 

These actions would be considered as too provocative for Iran.

22 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
Whether or not Iran goes nuclear in the next few years, Gulf Arab 

leaders offer advice on dealing with Iran and on issues they believe will 

affect their relations with the United States. While they concede that, ultimately, they need to depend on the United States for their security and 

defense needs, they will not acknowledge those commitments publicly. 

They will say:

■ Do not try to push us into a confrontation with Iran, especially 

when Iraq is an unknown and possibly untrustworthy ally. U.S. insistence on a military confrontation with Iran or on ratcheting up 

sanctions to force Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons programs 

would only provoke the Iranians to retaliate rather than get them 

to comply.

■ Do not try to marginalize the GCC states or alter the status quo. 

Gulf Arabs crave stability and balance, and they worry about 

being abandoned by the United States. Although they are tied 

strategically to Washington, they would seek comfort where it is 

offered—from the EU, or China, or Pakistan, for example. There is 

a growing rift between Saudi Arabia and some of the smaller GCC

states; the Al Sa’ud criticize Bahrain and Kuwait for their willingness to sign bilateral agreements with the United States on trade 

and security issues outside the collective framework of the GCC. 

The Saudis may prefer to lessen GCC dependence on U.S. military 

force, but some of the smaller Gulf States see their security as ultimately linked to the United States. For the Gulf Arabs, Riyadh is 

still the key to any change in GCC relations with their more powerful neighbors.

■ We need a new security paradigm, but we are not sure what it can 

be. The Gulf Arabs see a militarily strong Iran and a weak Iraq as 

creating a dangerous imbalance of power in the Gulf. They are 

already at risk of spillover from violent insurgencies spawned by 

religious or nationalist fanaticism in Iran or Iraq, yet they seem 

uncertain how to deal with this phase of their war on terror. They 

prefer accommodation and dialogue to reproach of their dangerous neighbors but are unwilling to invest in the process or invite 

Baghdad and Tehran into formal dialogue, let alone to become 

part of the GCC.

■ Talk to all Iranian factions and make your intentions toward Iran 

transparent. Engaging now with the government, whoever heads 

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators 23
it, however weak the latter is, could allow the United States to 

avoid more violence and misunderstandings later, as each side tries 

to test its influence and learn what the other views as threatening.

■ Offer a proposal for regional arms control. A promise from Iraq, 

Egypt, Syria, and other regional powers not to seek weapons of 

mass destruction and from Israel to dismantle its nuclear warheads could lead to regional security talks and arms control 

agreements. No one expects Israel to acquiesce to such a request, 

and it is difficult to see any Iraqi government giving promises 

beyond those contained in UNSC Resolution 687 not to seek 

what its neighbor Iran may already have.36 It may be a move that 

post-Saddam Iraqi governments can ill afford to make without a 

similar and prior commitment by their neighbors.

Looking Just Beyond the Neighborhood

Beyond the Gulf region, few experts—apart from the Israelis—see a direct correlation between Iran getting the bomb and everyone 

else wanting it. More relevant, they argue, is what a government defines as 

the primary challenges to its immediate and longer-term security. Muslim 

and Arab governments profess not to see a serious risk from a nucleararmed Iran, just as they professed not to see a similar risk from a nuclearhopeful Iraq. These governments look more toward commitments from 

the United States and the United Nations, and signatories’ compliance 

with the NPT and IAEA regulations.

Egypt at present appears to be abiding by its decades-old decision to sign the NPT and not pursue nuclear weapons. This could change, 

however, if Israel openly declares its nuclear weapons program. Syria and 

Libya would not seem to have an option for nuclear weapons; Libya has 

abandoned its efforts, and Syria, under close scrutiny because of its occupation of Lebanon and accusations of aiding Iraqi insurgents, will probably remain reliant on its chemical weapons and missile programs. It can 

afford little else.

Over the longer term, Iraq could prove once again to be the 

wildcard. Post-Saddam governments are committed to comply with the 

restrictions of all UNSC resolutions, especially 687, which ordered Iraq 

to identify for destruction all its WMD programs and promise never to 

pursue biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons again. These promises 

could be broken if and when Iran acquires nuclear weapons technology 

and if the United States deems a U.S.-friendly government in Baghdad 

24 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
trustworthy. Once reconstruction of its vast oilfields is under way and 

Iraq resumes its ability to export more than its current uncertain level of 

crude oil, then stopping it from responding to the threat Iran’s weapons 

would pose might be difficult.

The Negotiators: The EU–3

The involvement of Britain, France, and Germany (the EU–3) 

in negotiations with the Iranian government to suspend its nuclear enrichment program may reflect European fears and desires concerning 

U.S. policy as much as concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran. The EU–3 

embarked on a separate negotiation path in the summer of 2003, primarily as a soft power alternative to the American hard power approach and 

fears that the United States would repeat in Iran its military intervention 

in Iraq. The EU–3 also considers that the threat of UNSC sanctions would 

harden Iranian positions and could ultimately collapse as a result of Russian and Chinese opposition. Even more disconcerting to Europeans is 

the possibility of Israeli military preemption—something the Europeans 

feel would be less restrained and less predictable than a U.S. solution. 

Europeans are fatalistic about the chances of success of a military option, 

which, they believe, would only serve to destabilize the region and, more 

importantly, cut off the flow of oil, particularly in the event of a shutdown 

of the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, a primary driver of the EU position has 

been to forestall military escalation.

Even before President Bush’s February 2005 “fence-mending” trip 

through Europe, there was transatlantic agreement on the strategic objective of a nuclear-free Iran. Convergence on objectives, however, has yet to 

lead to convergence on tactics, although the United States has since raised 

the possibility of benefits to Iran (for example, World Trade Organization [WTO] membership) associated with a settlement. An undercurrent 

of European discontent surrounds American insistence that all options 

remain on the table, as well as considerable frustration that Washington 

will not, for now, join in the diplomatic process. The question then becomes: To what lengths will the Europeans be willing to go to achieve the 

nuclear-free objective? The answer may become clearer by considering 

what the European response might be if Iran actually crosses the nuclear 

threshold. If the diplomatic process fails, and Iran clearly has acquired 

nuclear status, the Europeans would face difficult decisions on whether to 

impede U.S. military operations—for example, through denial of air space 

or land transit. Even the United Kingdom would find it very difficult to 

join the United States in a military action.

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators 25
The European reaction to a nuclear-armed Iran would likely be 

similar to its reaction to the India-Pakistan crisis in 1998: stern condemnations followed by some type of economic sanctions. Despite some early 

chest pounding, however, we believe it unlikely that the Europeans would 

support military actions to reverse or roll back the Iranian program. 

Europeans would profess uncertainty regarding Iranian intentions once 

Tehran attains nuclear status. Some would argue that Iran understandably 

wants a hedge against Israeli attack or American invasion; they would 

be less concerned that Tehran might use its nuclear chip for coercion 

or blackmail. In the long run, Europe is likely to acquiesce to a nucleararmed Iran as long as it thinks any greater ambitions can be contained.

Two possible concerns may temper European acceptance of a 

nuclear Iran. The first is Iran’s increasingly capable ballistic missile program. The current generation of Shahab-3 missiles has a range just short 

of Europe’s southern flank. Speculation that Iran may pursue longerrange Shahab-3 variants or develop a newer, longer-range Shahab-4, -5, 

or -6 version may fuel concerns that Europe could be subjected to nuclear 

blackmail.37 In that case, Europe would likely try to shore up NATO’s 

southern and Mediterranean orientations. The other concern is Turkey. 

Already within range of the current Shahab missile, Ankara could decide 

to pursue its own nuclear agenda to counterbalance a nuclear-armed 

Iran. This would place original NATO members in a precarious position in regard to their southernmost NATO ally and probably would be 

more destabilizing than a nuclear-protected Gulf. While unlikely to spur 

additional nuclear proliferation in the European region, Turkish nuclear 

weapons acquisition could increase tension within the NATO alliance and 

raise pressure on the Gulf States to do the same.

Clearly, the Europeans are committed to a diplomatic solution 

to avert a nuclear-armed Iran. However, if at the end of the process the 

Europeans fail to achieve that goal, they are unlikely to pursue aggressive 

approaches to roll back Iranian capability and may have little stomach to 

sustain economic sanctions over the long run. Simply accepting life with a 

Persian bomb will prove easier for the Europeans than tempering possible 

U.S. and Israeli responses.

One final potential impact of an Iranian-EU deal needs consideration. Agreement to EU demands that it halt or suspend its enrichment 

programs would not mean an end to Iran’s nuclear research. It would, 

however, potentially affect the thousands of scientists and technicians 

who have been trained over 20 years to work on nuclear research programs. Presumably, Iran would want them to continue their work, so even 

26 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
success at the diplomatic table and greater scrutiny of Tehran’s nuclear activities would not end all concerns.

The Suppliers: Russia, China, and Pakistan

Iran has looked to Russia, China, and Pakistan for assistance developing its nuclear capability. Although it is debatable whether the governments 

of these nuclear states wittingly supported Iranian ambitions, the Iranian 

program clearly would not be as far along as it is today without some cooperation from them. As far back as 1987, Pakistan’s A.Q. Khan reportedly met 

with Iranian officials and apparently offered them designs and components 

for uranium enrichment. Through the years, Iran has purchased equipment and components from both Russia and China. Russia has overtly supported the plutonium reactor at Bushehr and continues to support Iranian 

access to peaceful nuclear energy. The support that these nuclear supplier 

states have provided Iran underscores their continuing interest in Iran as 

a customer.

In looking at Russia, there is both good news and bad. Russia 

views itself as neither the problem nor the solution. While Presidents 

Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush have jointly stated that Iran should 

not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, Russia continues to provide 

equipment for Iran’s nuclear energy program. Moscow promises, however, not to sell nuclear fuel to Iran unless Tehran agrees to return spent 

fuel to Russia. From Moscow’s perspective, Iran’s program represents a 

major export opportunity for a nuclear industry that has few domestic or 

international markets. It sees Iran as a major political player in the region, 

an Islamic country that has been largely deferential to Russian interests, 

and a key partner in Central Asia and the Gulf.

For the Russians, the nuclear issue is not high enough on their list 

of most pressing security concerns to jeopardize other key interests. Moscow prefers the status quo and considers the prospect of a nuclear-armed 

Iran to be an unwelcome one, but not so unwelcome as to place other 

Russian interests at risk. The Russians appear more concerned about an 

American intervention that would jeopardize Russian commercial interests; complicate bilateral relations, including those with Israel and the 

United States; cause further regional destabilization; and set off strategic 

and economic ripple effects that Russia may be ill equipped to handle. 

Some in Russia view the Iranian nuclear program as chiefly aimed at the 

United States and therefore useful in countering growing American influence and adventurism. At the same time, Russian officials understand that 

the issue is important for its principal interlocutors—the United States, 

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators 27
United Kingdom, Germany, and France—and Moscow would not want to 

be cut out of any scheme they propose. 

That is not to say that Russia is cavalier about Iranian intentions. 

Moscow continues to monitor Tehran’s behavior for signs of greater ambition and possible mischief. Generally, though, while Russia might object 

to solutions that rely on the use of force, it is unlikely to become a true 

obstacle to U.S. policy in the region. Russia also is unlikely ever to become 

a major player in dealing with an Iranian nuclear program and would 

probably be more reactive than proactive. Russia could play a useful role 

in the general framework of the international community’s response to 

the crisis. In doing so, Russia is more likely to use the international legal 

framework than to adopt a position that could leave senior policymakers 

vulnerable to domestic charges of caving in to U.S. pressure. For example, 

Russia’s agreement with Iran on spent nuclear fuel ran against U.S. policy 

preferences but emphasized compliance with Russian obligations under 

the NPT. Perhaps one collateral benefit of the agreement is that it underscores the point that Iran does not need to develop its own full nuclear 

fuel cycle.

Russian behavior in the runup to Operation Iraqi Freedom could 

be indicative of its reaction to a future crisis involving Iran. Unwilling to 

jeopardize its bilateral relations with the United States or Europe, Russia would probably adopt a “wait-and-see” attitude and watch the debate 

unfold among allies on both sides of the Atlantic. Russia would likely shy 

away from a leadership position in that debate, insisting instead on keeping the issue confined to the UN–NPT framework. This would give Moscow a major decisionmaking role, shield its equities vis-à-vis the United 

States and Europe, maximize its leverage on Iran, and neutralize domestic 

anti-American sentiments.

China is another great power with growing interest in Iran and 

the Gulf. Its reactions to a nuclear-armed Iran are likely to be similar to 

Chinese responses in other post–Cold War international crises, such as 

the Gulf War, Kosovo, the Korean nuclear crisis, and the Iraq war. China 

would seek to protect its equities in the crisis region, emphasize international procedures that give it a veto or a strong voice, support peaceful diplomatic resolution of the crisis, and oppose any use of force against Iran. 

In our judgment, China’s focus would remain on protecting its national 

sovereignty, avoiding negative precedents, and preserving regional stability 

in order to maintain favorable conditions for Chinese economic development. If possible, China would pursue these objectives while maintaining 

good relations with the United States and other major powers.

28 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
China would probably be more concerned about American or Israeli reactions to a nuclear-armed Iran than about Iranian nuclear weapons 

themselves, especially if Iran’s nuclear capability remains opaque and untested. This reflects a history of friendly Sino-Iranian relations and Chinese 

perceptions that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is primarily intended for 

defensive purposes, including prevention of U.S. attempts to force regime 

change. China would seek to keep oil flowing from the Persian Gulf while 

attempting to preserve preferential access to Iranian oil and gas resources 

and market opportunities. A prolonged stalemate in which Iran remained 

entangled in a diplomatic (but not military) confrontation with the United 

States and Europe would serve Chinese interests.

China would probably support international efforts to punish 

Iran for crossing the nuclear threshold, but would be extremely reluctant 

to authorize use of military force or international sanctions that might 

bring down the current Iranian government. If Beijing concluded that 

the United States or Israel intended to conduct military attacks against 

Iranian nuclear facilities or to overthrow the regime, it might support 

stronger international sanctions, but only if they would forestall the use of 

force. As in past crises, Beijing would prefer to play a secondary role supporting Russian and European objections to military action rather than 

confronting the United States directly.

Closer to home and despite A.Q. Khan’s past cooperation with the 

Iranian regime, the government of Pakistan is unlikely to welcome a new 

nuclear-armed neighbor on its western border. With a nuclear-armed 

India to the east, Pakistan would find itself in an undesirable strategic 

situation sandwiched between two nuclear-armed countries. Pakistan 

would perceive a diminution of status in the Muslim world if it were no 

longer the sole Islamic nation with nuclear capability. A “Shia bomb” 

would likely bring Sunni-Shia differences to the surface and raise anew 

suspicions in the Pakistan-Iran relationship that have been simmering 

since the fall of the shah. Competition for economic access to Central 

Asia, Sunni-Shia violence in southwest Pakistan, and Iranian influence 

in Afghanistan are all pressure points that may be viewed through a new 

prism. In fact, an openly nuclear-armed Iran would not be a primary 

Pakistani security concern, but, to the extent it exacerbates these other 

problems, it would become a thorn in Islamabad’s side.

As with the other interested parties, Pakistan’s greater fear is the 

reaction of the United States and Israel. The Musharraf regime is under 

enormous pressure internally for its continued support for Washington’s 

war on terror. A significant U.S. military response would place further 

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators 29
demands on Musharraf for support, which would be enormously unpopular with the populace and within the Pakistani military. This dynamic 

could significantly increase the potential for unrest within Pakistan and 

serve as a tipping point for catastrophic instability. At a minimum, U.S. 

operations against yet another Muslim neighbor would likely erode Pakistani support in the war on terror.

Implications for the Global Nonproliferation Regime

There would be significant impacts on the global nonproliferation 

regime if Iran crossed the nuclear threshold. The effect would depend on 

the particular scenario, at least three of which deserve careful study. 

The India model. From a nonproliferation standpoint, this is the 

worst-case scenario. Iran would confront strong international condemnation in the short term, but in the long term it would have enhanced 

its prestige.

The North Korea model. This is another bad case, in which Iran 

is caught cheating and withdraws from the NPT. Under a perfectly legitimate loophole in the treaty—in which a signatory country can construct 

enrichment facilities—other signatory countries would be unable to take 

strong retaliatory measures. A less damaging outcome would be if Iran 

completes its nuclear enrichment program under IAEA safeguards, with 

no one able to prove they have latent weapons capability.

The Iraq model. The United States or Israel preemptively attacks 

Iran’s facilities, and Iran withdraws from the NPT to rebuild and even expand its programs.

These scenarios have at least three dangerous consequences. First, 

they challenge the validity of the basic assumptions upon which the NPT

is based. Second, they would probably accelerate the erosion of confidence in the IAEA and the inspection regime. Finally, governments that 

have foresworn nuclear weapons ambitions might decide to reconsider 

their previous choices.

The NPT was created as a grand bargain to ensure that states 

could have access to peaceful nuclear energy while promising to limit proliferation of nuclear weapons. It was designed as a cooperative measure, 

and it is ill equipped to handle determined cheaters. The IAEA was created 

to ensure that the grand bargain was maintained and that there would be 

no crossover from civilian energy and scientific endeavors to weapons 

programs. It was not designed to detect clandestine weapons programs 

unrelated to peaceful energy research. The United States would like to 

see changes in the NPT—most specifically in Article IV, which allows a 

30 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
country to “develop research, production, and use of nuclear energy for 

peaceful purposes”—to close a loophole that is interpreted as endorsing 

these states’ acquisition of uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing facilities. Washington would also like to put more enforcement teeth 

into the regime. The global community, however, has been slow to act, and 

an international conference convened by the United Nations in May 2005 

failed to resolve any of these issues. Iran’s chief negotiator, Hassan Rohani, 

warns that:

termination of fuel cycle activities as demanded of Iran means you have 

killed the NPT. If you take out Article IV, all developing countries will 

step out of the treaty. . . . Termination is war between the North and the 

South. The Americans say forget about Article IV, forget about the disarmament promised in Article IV. . . . The U.S. today is trying to create 

a second discrimination, one between those that have peaceful nuclear 

technology and those not allowed to have peaceful nuclear technology.38

American attitudes toward the EU–3’s diplomatic strategy reflect 

a growing skepticism about the efficacy of the NPT and the IAEA. Eroding support for the treaty is likely to accelerate an equally diminishing 

level of confidence in the institutions and its inspections. Both the NPT

and IAEA have failed to keep up with determined signatory proliferators, 

such as Iraq and North Korea. New measures, such as the Additional Protocol, which calls for commitments to additional safeguard mechanisms, 

are designed to enhance the capabilities of the IAEA inspection regime. 

However, the protocol itself does not allow free and unfettered inspections of suspect facilities. The IAEA must operate in a team mode most 

of the time and needs permission from the host government to inspect 

facilities, restrictions that can severely hamper inspectors’ ability to carry 

out surprise and unconstrained inspections. The greatest threat to the 

IAEA and NPT, however, would be the degree of opacity with which Iran 

crossed the nuclear threshold. A successful, opaque crossing would probably weaken the support of the international community and seriously 

harm further efforts by the IAEA to operate.

On occasion, the IAEA has gone beyond its usual mandate. It expanded its inspection capabilities beyond its normal operating constraints 

in Libya, Belarus, Ukraine, and South Africa. How do we apply these 

lessons to Iran and strengthen the IAEA’s hand? The challenge would be 

to define different ranges of inspection authority when there are cases of 

clear violation—in other words, create a more benign regime for routine 

inspections, and a more extraordinary regime for suspected or actual 

Neighbors, Negotiators, and Nonproliferators 31
violators. The violators would have to appear before the UN Security 

Council and expunge the violation by admitting what they have done and 

allowing more permanent monitoring. The Security Council would hold 

the primary authority in addition to the IAEA and NPT, thereby shifting 

the burden of proof from the IAEA to the suspect state and triggering 

further international scrutiny. A broader set of authorities would be required for the IAEA to conduct more intrusive inspections and interviews 

with scientists. However, as the global nonproliferation community approached the 2005 NPT Review Conference in late May, there was little 

consensus on how to strengthen both the NPT and IAEA. A confirmed 

violation in Iran might have a galvanizing effect on the community to 

make the changes necessary to shore up the regime and place further emphasis on counterproliferation efforts, such as the Proliferation Security 

Initiative.

Finally, and perhaps most significantly, governments that have 

foresworn nuclear weapons development could reconsider their willingness to comply with obligations standards successfully breached by Iran 

and North Korea. Certainly, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan will be influenced by the North Korean situation. And, despite skepticism over falling 

dominos in the Middle East, we cannot rule out the possibility that the Iranian case will affect choices yet to be made by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, 

Iraq, and Turkey. Other countries with capacity and regional weight—such 

as South Africa and Brazil—would surely take notice. To what degree and 

how quickly these impacts would be reflected in national decisions is impossible to say. Iran’s nuclear capability would increase pressure on some 

governments, but technical and political constraints would also affect 

whether or how quickly more countries develop nuclear weapons.

32 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran
Chapter Three

U.S. Policy Options

We, the Iranian people, within the borders of our country, will cut off any 

hand that harms our scientific, natural, human, or technological interests. 

We will cut off the hand that is sent to invade and work against our people’s 

interests. We will do this with no hesitation. . . . If the enemy has the audacity to harm and invade, our blows against it will not be limited to the borders of our country. . . . If someone harms our people and invades, we will 

endanger his interests anywhere in the world.39

—Supreme Leader Khamenei, July 6, 2004

Anuclear-armed Iran would increase pressure on the United States 

from the international community to engage rather than confront 

Iran. Some would see a nuclear-armed Iran as a major failure 

for American foreign policy. They would argue that U.S. determination 

to change regimes in Iraq and Iran and preference for sticks rather than 

carrots contributed to Iran’s decision to pursue nuclear weapons. Others 

would argue that the European policy of critical dialogue and preference 

for carrots over sticks simply encouraged Iran to play for time and deflect 

international pressure. Regardless of the debate, many in the international 

community would renew their calls for the United States to engage and 

negotiate with Iran. Washington could decide to adopt a more accommodating strategy for dealing with Iran, or it could choose a more dramatic 

course. Starkly put, the choices become either to live with a nucleararmed Iran or to do something about it.

What models or issues would affect U.S. national security policy 

when faced with a nuclear-armed Iran? Pakistan offers one model. Before 

the horrific attacks of September 11, 2001, the United States had placed 

sanctions on Pakistan because of its nuclear tests. The need to garner 

Pakistani support for the war on terror necessitated a change in policy 

33
34 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

to acceptance of Pakistan as it is—with a nondemocratic government, 

strident Islamist extremist groups that are virulently anti-American, and 

nuclear weapons. The difference between U.S.-Iran and U.S.-Pakistan 

relations probably lies mostly in Tehran’s evident willingness to challenge 

the United States and the prevailing status quo in the region.

An issue that will have considerable bearing on U.S. and EU

policy is the clarity with which the Iranians cross the nuclear threshold. 

An Iranian decision to adopt an opaque approach—remaining within the 

NPT, appearing to comply with its international obligations, and continuing with weapons research and development in secret—would allow the 

United States and the European Union to be ambiguous in their policy 

response. In our view, Iran will make this choice. However, should Iran 

choose a transparent nuclear breakout, renounce the NPT, or conduct an 

overt demonstration of its nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, then 

Washington and its allies will be faced with a clear and difficult decision. 

In either case, U.S. options are few: either do something to reverse the Iranian capability, or accept the situation. Whether the United 

States could eventually accept a nuclear-armed Iran in the same way it has 

accepted a nuclear-armed South Asia depends to some degree on the internal political dynamic in Iran. A government that is nuclear-armed and 

dominated by conservative clerics and politicians following a hard line on 

foreign policy and security issues might become less risk-averse and act 

more aggressively toward its neighbors and foes. It might demand that 

its Muslim and Arab neighbors adopt its political and security visions. 

It might shelter its extremist surrogates and groups using terror tactics 

under its nuclear umbrella and encourage them to try to destabilize Israel, 

spoil peace talks, cow Iraq, squelch anti-Syrian efforts in Lebanon, or 

shape the oil market. It would be difficult for the United States, Europe, 

Russia, China, or other Asian governments—with their dependence on 

Gulf energy resources—to ignore Iran in a spoiler mode.

The United States and other governments could develop a strategy to roll back the Iranian nuclear weapons capability or change the 

regime. But if there were leadership in Tehran that was willing to work 

with Washington more constructively on matters of mutual concern, 

then the issue of how the United States deals with a nuclear-armed 

Iran might be different. If so, accepting a nuclear-armed Iran would require a mixture of diplomatic and economic engagement balanced by a 

muscular deterrent approach.
Rolling Back the Iranian Nuclear Program

President Bush has stated that “the development of a nuclear 

weapon in Iran is intolerable.”40 Thus, once Iran crosses the nuclear 

threshold, it is reasonable to expect the United States to adopt a course of 

trying to roll back the Iranian capability. The question becomes: At what 

cost would the Bush administration be willing to pursue this strategy? 

For the United States, the potential efficacy of diplomatic and economic 

incentives and disincentives may be severely diminished, and the costs of 

a military solution no longer acceptable.

A rollback strategy involves a series of measures designed to 

reduce Iranian motivations for retaining its nuclear program along with 

coercive measures to inflict sufficient punishment on the regime should 

it not comply. It also sends a definitive signal to other potential proliferators. Such measures should reduce or eliminate the perceived benefits 

Iran expects to obtain from its nuclear capability. A potentially effective 

strategy could include a coordinated series of escalating options ranging 

from providing security assurances to Iran, political isolation to economic 

sanctions and, finally, military action.

Security Assurances, Coercive Diplomacy, and Economic Sanctions

Security assurances to Iran would be designed to reduce the motivation of the Iranian regime to maintain its nuclear weapons capability. 

A promise not to attack Iran if it gives up its nuclear weapons might be of 

use in dissuading it from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold, but it 

would probably be a non-starter once Iran takes that step. Without sufficient sticks, such as the threat of military force, Iran has little incentive 

to give up its anticipated nuclear capability for vague security assurances. 

However, such a strategy employed as a carrot along with more coercive 

options might have some benefit. Assuming a primary driver of Tehran’s 

nuclear intent is the fear of regime change, the United States could design 

a series of diplomatic and economic measures to alleviate this fear.

■ Some experts believe Washington would have to renounce regime 

change as a policy goal and follow through with recognition of the 

Iranian regime, normalization of relations, and possibly support 

for initiatives, such as international loan guarantees and unrestricted sales of highly desired civilian technology. Agreeing to let 

Iran join the WTO is unlikely to be sufficient.

■ For its part, Iran would need to take credible steps to show that it 

has no aggressive or subversive designs toward its neighbors. The 

U.S. POLICY options 35
36 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

United States could not offer security guarantees that leave Iran 

free to take hostile action through surrogates.

■ Normalization would not mean that all contentious issues between 

Tehran and Washington suddenly disappear. It would require 

that normal diplomatic channels be reestablished through which 

all issues could be addressed. The United States would also need 

to promote a larger dialogue with Iran’s neighbors to develop a 

regional security framework that addresses their own and Iran’s 

security concerns.

Rollback as a strategy has had some successes. In the case of 

Libya, sanctions fatigue, a severely weakened economy, exhaustion with 

its long status as an international pariah, succession worries, and the U.S. 

interdiction of centrifuge components under the Proliferation Security 

Initiative led Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi to renounce his WMD aspirations and acquisitions. South Africa rolled back, and several Eurasian 

states—including Ukraine—agreed to relinquish Soviet-era nuclear weapons stockpiles on their territories. A number of countries have chosen not 

to pursue nuclear weapons capability despite their technical ability to do 

so. In almost all cases, the decision to roll back was based on a perception 

that domestic costs far outweighed the benefits.41

For the Iranian regime, however, possessing nuclear weapons capability provides significant domestic as well as international benefits. An 

Iranian-focused rollback strategy would require tightening elements of 

the nonproliferation regime as part of a larger effort to isolate the Iranian 

regime internationally, thereby negating the international prestige and 

pride Tehran associates with a Persian bomb. For this to happen, it would 

be essential for the international community to make clear to Iran that it 

has a stark choice: either it can have nuclear weapons, or it can have good 

relations with the outside world. Unfortunately, while the EU, Russia, and 

Asian governments may agree with this approach in principle, there will 

be no consensus on how to enforce it. Additionally, once Iran has attained 

nuclear weapons status, it is unlikely to capitulate solely in response to 

threats of political and economic isolation without incentives.

Scholars agree that a coordinated international effort to implement economic sanctions would have a significant impact on Iran. Despite the recent bonanza from unanticipated oil profits, Iran’s economy 

remains weak, and efforts to meet the demand for jobs, housing, and 

consumer goods lag.42 Unemployment coupled with a need for foreign 
investment to stimulate growth make it susceptible to sustained economic 

pressure.43 U.S. efforts to force compliance from Iran through sanctions 

have failed, largely because they were unilateral. Similarly, efforts to gain 

international support for an economic boycott have failed, and there is no 

reason to assume that an effort pegged to Iran crossing the nuclear weapons threshold would gain widespread support. If it did, the effort would 

be costly to the United States in terms of incentives to other boycotters. 

And, if consensus is achieved, it is likely to be short-lived. Economic 

sanctions hurt people and not governments, for the most part, making 

it difficult to sell this policy at home or abroad. To be effective, sanctions 

would have to be applied before nuclear status is achieved—although the 

examples of sanctions already applied to Iran, Iraq, and North Korea are 

not encouraging in this regard. It is unlikely, in our judgment, that a sanctions-only approach after the fact will achieve the desired outcome.

Use of Military Force

At the high end of the rollback ladder, several military options 

could be considered in order to encourage Iran’s government to eliminate 

the weapons program outright, give up its nuclear intent, and, perhaps, 

change the regime. In our view, military operations are not likely to 

achieve these results and will almost certainly have unintended consequences, such as rallying popular support for an unpopular regime. Moreover, without clear evidence of Iranian provocation—that is, beyond the 

actual act of acquisition—a military strategy is likely to cost the United 

States international support and political effectiveness.

Several factors would need to be considered before the United 

States decided on using a unilateral military option or pursuing a multilateral military or diplomatic solution. These factors include the sense of 

urgency; the status of cooperation between the United States, the EU–3, 

and the international community; and the events leading up to an Iranian nuclear breakout. American actions may be somewhat restricted if 

tied too closely to a joint U.S.–EU approach, unless the EU agrees to give 

military support should all other options fail. Governments, however, 

historically are loath to give such blank checks. Support for combined 

military action might be more forthcoming if the United States and its allies agreed on the redlines that would trigger a response should Iran cross 

them. Again, governments do not, as a rule, tie their hands by committing 

themselves to cooperate automatically in advance.44

Once a decision had been made to employ force, the questions 

then become: How much, and to what end? A series of strikes and raids 

U.S. POLICY options 37
38 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

on WMD targets that demonstrate U.S. and international resolve could 

compel Iranian leaders to give up their nuclear weapons programs, particularly in the face of additional diplomatic and economic pressures 

coupled with fears of further escalation. However, such a strategy is inherently problematic. Iran’s nuclear program is well dispersed and hidden, the result of lessons learned from the 1981 Israeli attack on Iraq’s 

nuclear reactor. Locating and destroying critical elements of Iran’s nuclear 

program, with or without a ground invasion, would be an extraordinarily 

demanding mission with highly uncertain effects. Moreover, uncertainty 

about the full extent of Iranian capability and about its willingness to use 

nuclear weapons could deter the United States from taking even limited 

military action. Accurate information on Iranian nuclear force and its retaliatory capability would influence a U.S. response, but such knowledge 

will be hard to acquire.

For similar reasons, a nuclear-armed Iran would likely deny the 

United States the option of an Iraq-style invasion to change the Iranian 

regime and eliminate its WMD program. An Iranian regime that thought 

its survival was threatened might adopt a “use them or lose them” mentality with its nuclear weapons. All forces in the region, including American, 

moderate Arab, and Israeli, would then be vulnerable to Iranian attack.

Additionally, as long as the U.S. Armed Forces are involved in 

major counterinsurgency efforts in Iraq and in counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the region, it is implausible that the 

United States could assemble the military capabilities required to conduct 

a successful conventional invasion of a country three times the size of 

Iraq. Efforts to support antiregime elements to overthrow the Iranian 

leadership are unlikely to succeed; the exile opponents of the Iranian 

government are unpopular in Iran, some because of their monarchist ambitions and others because of their past willingness to work for Saddam 

Husayn against Iran. These options rarely remain below the radar screen 

of the targeted regime; they could trigger terrorist retaliation but are not 

likely to escalate to use of nuclear weapons. Combined with diplomatic 

and economic elements in a rollback strategy, this approach may have 

merit over the long term. However, the short-term prospects for military 

options or support for regime opponents to roll back the Iranian nuclear 

capability or change the regime are modest at best.

Living with a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Scholars and government experts are divided on Iran’s ultimate 

strategy and tactics when it finally completes its nuclear weapons research 
and development. They are uncertain of popular support for nuclear 

weapons capability but are clear on popular support for Iran’s right to 

nuclear energy. They agree, however, that the international community—especially the European Union, Russia, Pakistan, China, Iraq, and 

the Arab Gulf states—will watch the U.S. reaction closely before deciding 

their reaction to a nuclear-armed Iran. The key question would be: Could 

the United States live with a nuclear-armed Iran?

Iran’s governments have been aggressively and shrilly anti-American in public speeches and demonstrations. Leaders have supported 

anti-American terrorism (in Lebanon, for example) and deplored it (the 

September 11 attacks on New York City and the Pentagon). They have 

cajoled and threatened regional friends and allies of the United States. But 

they have not behaved carelessly or irrationally. For Tehran, all situations 

are fraught with hazard, and all decisions are carefully and consensually 

made—all of which leads many analysts to conclude that the United States 

could probably deter Iranian regional adventurism, even after it crossed 

the nuclear threshold.45

Even if the United States adopted a rollback strategy, the world 

would have to live with a nuclear-armed Iran for some period of time 

once it crossed the threshold. Whether for the short term or the long 

term, Washington would have to determine the optimum way to contain 

and deter Tehran, if pursuing a strategy of engagement would mitigate 

the effects of a nuclear-armed regime, and whether a strategy of rollback 

through coercion or eventual regime change could work.

Prospects for Deterrence

In deciding it could live with a nuclear-armed Iran, the United 

States would have several goals in mind: deterring overt nuclear use, containing aggression and adventurism in the region, and preventing transfer 

of nuclear capability to terrorist surrogates. Threats of overt nuclear use 

by Iran may be the simplest to deter, although an inexperienced adversary 

such as Iran could easily miscalculate in a classical deterrence relationship. Many would perceive the U.S. strategic capabilities resident in the 

new triad (nuclear and nonnuclear offenses, defenses, and a responsive 

infrastructure) sufficient to deal with a limited Iranian capability. To ensure U.S. intent is understood, a clear declaratory policy would eliminate 

any doubt about its resolve to respond overwhelmingly to Iranian nuclear 

use. Furthermore, any extension of the U.S. nuclear umbrella to other 

countries in the region (such as the GCC) would require explicit communication to prevent miscalculation.

U.S. POLICY options 39
40 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Deterrence based on rational actor assumptions necessitates a 

good understanding of the adversary. Cultural ignorance, inability to communicate, or gaps in knowledge on both sides will complicate the strategic 

situation. Furthermore, decisionmaking must be thoroughly considered in 

advance of possible crises to reduce the potential for missteps. The amount 

of time Iran has invested in planning and institutionalizing decisionmaking and responsibility as a nuclear weapons state is unknown. Confidencebuilding measures will be needed from the beginning of, or even preceding, 

negotiations but may be difficult to achieve while pursuing a rollback strategy. For the short term at least, Iran would likely be an unstable deterrence 

partner, requiring the utmost U.S. and EU attention to unintended consequences in order to avoid escalation. In the final analysis, it is likely that the 

Iranian regime could be deterred from overt nuclear use.

Misunderstandings between the United States and Iran are most 

likely to arise in the Persian Gulf region, where a more aggressive and 

adventurous Iran might try to exert influence with the unsubtle reminder 

that it is a nuclear-weapons state. Particularly troublesome would be overt 

aggressive acts such as conventional military strikes or special operations 

against Iraq, Pakistan, and the Arab Gulf states or an attempt to intimidate the United States by shutting down oil export capabilities through 

the Strait of Hormuz. We do not view the latter as a likely scenario, given 

Iran’s dependence on open sea lines to export its oil, but the threat must 

be taken seriously. The United States might hesitate before launching a 

military attack against Iran, but Washington would have to communicate 

to Tehran clearly that it would not shrink from using conventional forces 

to punish aggressive Iranian actions.

Any effective U.S. military response would require a sustained 

commitment of force in the region and on Iran’s borders. Although a 

continued U.S. presence may raise concerns in some parts of the region, a 

concerted effort to build regional partnerships and coalitions, along with 

success in Iraq, would help ameliorate them. This scenario requires the 

United States to continue planning a broad range of conventional military 

operations to defeat or punish Iranian or Iranian-supported challenges or 

assaults on U.S. interests in the region. On the downside, this too could 

have an escalatory effect, particularly if Iran perceived American power 

as presenting an imminent threat of invasion and regime change. Overall, 

even though Iran might become more assertive, most experts believe the 

United States and its allies should be able to deter and contain overt acts 

of significant consequence, though deterring more subtle intimidation by 

a nuclear-armed Iran would be more difficult.
Deterring Transfer to Terrorists?

Probably the most controversial issue for deterrence theory is a 

nuclear-armed Iran providing its new weapons and technology to terrorists. Is Iran likely to transfer nuclear capability to terrorists/surrogates? If 

the answer is yes, the next questions are: Would we know it, and could we 

place Iran at risk in order to avoid it?

Most experts agree that the Iranian government is unlikely to 

share its new nuclear weapons technology with terrorist groups, including the Lebanese Hizballah. Iranian intelligence officers and IRGC

personnel will continue to train surrogates and provide safe haven for 

a select few. Iran’s WMD programs are probably under the control of 

the IRGC, whose leaders would understand the risk to the regime if 

caught passing on sensitive technology to extremist groups. Consensus is important in Iranian decisionmaking, but the IRGC or so-called 

rogue elements may be able to circumvent senior government decisionmakers opposed to sharing the new and dangerous technology with 

surrogates.46 The stakes would have to be very high—perhaps regime 

survival—before the IRGC and its political patrons would risk giving 

nuclear weapons to terrorists. The harder—and probably unanswerable—question is whether Iranian official controls would be durable 

enough to prevent “leakage” by rogue actors.

The risk that pro-Iranian terrorist groups would be heartened 

by their patron’s new capabilities also presents a new challenge for deterrence. Iran is not likely to provide nuclear weapons assistance to Sunni 

religious extremists or terrorist groups; it fears them more than it favors 

them. A more plausible concern is that a group long affiliated with Iran—

for example, Hizballah in Lebanon—would feel emboldened to take more 

aggressive action against Israel, assuming that it is protected by a nucleararmed Iran.

And the Answer Is?

To strengthen its deterrence position vis-à-vis a nuclear-armed 

Iran, the United States would need to take several steps. These include 

reassuring allies and friends; strengthening preemptive and retaliatory 

military capabilities as well as active and passive defenses; and reinforcing 

dissuasion and nonproliferation regimes to prevent further proliferation.

Reassuring allies and friends means convincing them that we 

would keep our commitments to their security, consult with them as 

crises arose, and not place them in dire jeopardy. Developing coalitions and partnerships would be essential to blunting potential Iranian 

U.S. POLICY options 41
42 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

aggression or intimidation in the region. Additionally, extending the 

American nuclear umbrella to our partners could alleviate their security 

fears and prevent Iran from bullying its neighbors. However, as previously suggested, nuclear guarantees must be explicit and understood by 

Iran and the neighbors to avoid miscalculation. At the same time, they 

must avoid striking fear in allies and partners of a U.S. overreaction—a 

fine line to walk.

Effective deterrence requires a credible range of military options 

and assured capabilities to respond to attack. The ability of the United 

States to react quickly and effectively would depend on it maintaining a 

military presence in the region, even though such presence may not be 

welcomed in some quarters. Attributing a terrorist attack and making the 

connection to a state is another difficult issue. U.S. ability to say that an 

attack was attributable to Iran, and have that assessment believed outside 

U.S. Government circles, would continue to be seriously constrained in 

Europe and the Middle East.

A nuclear-armed Iran would underscore the region’s interest 

in and request for defenses against nuclear attack. Means of defending 

against both shorter- and longer-range missiles would be required. One 

option is a more robust U.S. and allied defense against ballistic missiles. 

This would have an impact on U.S. strategic missile defense deployments 

at home and in theater, given Iran’s long-range missiles. Other options, 

such as cruise missile defense and enhanced passive defensive capabilities, 

would increase in importance. At the same time, given unconventional 

forms of missile delivery, the United States and its allies would need more 

robust detection capabilities and enhanced border protection measures. 

The best the United States and its regional friends can do is to layer defensive capabilities to complicate the adversary’s calculus of his chances 

for a successful operation. This calculus can be strengthened by being 

more explicit about the consequences of such acts.

To the extent that security would be a factor motivating states to 

seek nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear-armed Iran, an extension 

of the U.S. security guarantee could be effective, but there would have to 

be a clear understanding that protection is contingent upon their not acquiring nuclear capability. The United States should not extend its nuclear 

security guarantees lightly, but it merits consideration if Iran goes nuclear. 

This would also have an important dissuasion effect in preventing other 

nations from considering nuclear capability and would be essential in reestablishing the global nonproliferation regime.
Conclusion

Evidence suggests and most scholars concur that Iran is working toward the capability to produce nuclear weapons independently of 

any other government or individual. Can the United States live with a 

nuclear-armed Iran? Despite its rhetoric, it may have little choice. The potential for rollback once the threshold has been crossed is lower than preventing it in the first place, and the costs of rollback may be higher than 

the costs of deterring and containing a nuclear Iran. Even if the United 

States decides to embark on a rollback strategy, it would have to maintain 

a live-with-it deterrence strategy while other diplomatic, economic, and 

military options play out. The good news is that much of the capability 

needed for deterrence and containment is the same as that needed for 

more robust military options. That may enable the United States to play 

both strategies for an undetermined length of time.

Finally, with the election of an avowed hard-liner as president, 

Iranians and Americans wonder if the stage may be set for a dramatic 

policy initiative reminiscent of the visit of U.S. President Richard Nixon, a 

staunch anti-Communist, to China after his second inaugural. Only a true 

hard-liner, it is argued, could risk such an initiative. Such a move by President Ahmadinajed could only be made with Supreme Leader Khamenei’s 

approval, and there is no indication that he would sanction such a gesture, 

especially without a promise of concessions from the United States. 

U.S. POLICY options 43

Endnotes

1

 Michael Slackman, “Winner in Iran Calls For Unity; Reformists Reel,” The Washington Post, 

June 26, 2005, A1, 10. 2 R. Scott Billquist, “Europeans Win Tentative Vow From Negotiator,” The Washington Post, 

May 26, 2005, A20. 3

 Mark Lavie, “Sharon Rules Out Attacking Iran Over Nukes,” Jerusalem AP, April 13 2005. 4

 Ibid.

5 See Kori N. Schake and Judith S. Yaphe, The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran, 

McNair Paper 64 (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2001). 6 Although both studies assumed Iran was embarked on efforts to acquire nuclear weapons 

self-sufficiency, the groups that met at the National Defense University were divided on the question 

of whether Iran has gone past the point of no return in its research and development. When polled, 

the group decision was inconclusive: 40 percent believed Iran had not yet reached the point of no return, 40 percent thought they had, and 20 percent had no opinion! 7 See, in this paper, appendix A, “A Time Line of Iran’s Path to Nuclear Weapons Capability,” 

and appendix B, “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status, Risks, and Prospects,” both by David Albright, director of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, DC. 8 See, in this paper, appendix C, “Walking the Tightrope: Israeli Options in Response to Iranian 

Nuclear Developments,” by Gerald Steinberg, director of the Program on Conflict Management and 

Negotiation at Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, Israel, and Fellow, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. 9

 “Iran May Resume Uranium Enrichment Within Six Months, Says Rafsanjani,” Iran Expert, 

December 5, 2004, available at <www.iranexpert.com/2004/rafsanjani5december>. 10 “Iranian FM Reaffirms Tehran’s Right to Nuclear Power for Peaceful Purposes,” War Wire,

February 14, 2005, available at <www.spacewar.com/2005/050214153124.cztygouq.html>. 11 Britain, France, and Germany are the so-called EU–3 powers negotiating with Iran on behalf 

of the European Union. In return for ending its research programs, Iran would receive a range of economic, political, and security benefits from the EU and other nations. See appendix B in this paper. 12 See appendix A. 13 David Albright, “Iran’s Nuclear Program: Status, Risks, and Prospects,” paper prepared for a 

conference on Iran After 25 Years of Revolution, sponsored by the National Defense University and the 

Woodrow Wilson Center, November 15, 2004. See also articles published by Albright and Corey Hinderstein in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, including “Iran: Countdown to Showdown,” vol. 60, 

no. 6 (November/December 2004), 67–72; “Iran: Player or Rogue,” vol. 59, no. 5 (September/October 

2003), 52–58; “Iran: Furor Over Fuel,” vol. 59, no. 3 (May/June 2003), 12–15; and “The Centrifuge 

Connection, vol. 20, no. 2 (March/April 2004), 61–66. For information on satellite images of Iranian 

nuclear sites discussed in this paper, see the Institute for Science and International Security Web site, 

available at <www.isis-online.org/images/main_satellite_index.html>.

45
46 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

14 We are grateful to several Iranian scholars, including Professor Bahman Baktiari and Babrak 

Kamel of the Persian Service at the British Broadcasting Company, for sharing these insights. 15 For the application of this concept to great powers, see Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1991). 16 According to an Al-Ahram report in October 2003, a five-member committee reported 

to the National Security Council on the nuclear program issue; its members then included Foreign 

Minister Kamal Kharrazi, Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani, National Security Council Secretary Hassan Rohani, Foreign Affairs Adviser Ali Akbar Velayati, and Minister of Internal Security Ali Yunisi. 

Rohani became a leading negotiator in Iran’s nonproliferation talks with the EU. Mustaffa El-Labbad, 

“A Bird with Just One Wing,” Al-Ahram Weekly, October 10, 2003, available at <http://yaleglobal.yale.

edu/display.article?id=2609>. 17 Iranian sources say Ahmadinejad served in Iraq during the 1980–1988 war but are uncertain 

of the nature of his activities there. He apparently also worked in the Interior Ministry, but his duties 

are unknown. Before his appointment as a provincial governor and election as mayor of Tehran in 

2003, Ahmadinejad, who received a doctorate in engineering, was a university professor and member 

of the University Professors’ Basij organization. Interviews, June 27, 2005; Michael Slackman, “Winner in Iran Calls For Unity; Reformists Reel,” The Washington Post, June 26, 2005, A1, 10. 18 Ahmadinejad could, for example, keep Defense Minister Shamkhani and IRGC Commander Safavi in their positions and appoint hard-liners Ali Larijani and Mohsen Rezaie, a former 

IRGC commander, or Majles Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, whose daughter is married to Supreme Leader Khamenei’s son, to senior advisory posts. 

19 Professor Bahman Baktiari, presentation at Wilton Park, United Kingdom, November 2004. 20 Fars News Agency, October 27, 2004; “Iran: Majles Orders Resumption of ‘Peaceful Nuclear 

Activities,’” Tehran Jomhuri-ye Eslami, May 16, 2005, 1–2; see IAP20050517011025, Foreign Broadcast 

Information Service (hereafter referred to as FBIS); see also draft paper by Babrak Kamel, Conservative Factionalism and Iranian Nuclear Strategy, March 30, 2005, 33. 21 “Iran Law Makers Want Nuclear Development,” Associated Press, May 28, 2005; Ali Akbar 

Dareini, “Iran’s Guardian Council Approves Law Forcing Government to Develop Nuclear Technology,” 

Associated Press, May 28, 2005. The official Iranian declarations speak publicly of “the nuclear issue” and 

“nuclear technology” and do not specifically mention nuclear weapons. “Iran’s Guardian Council Approves Bill Making Nuclear Technology Obligatory,” Tehran Vision of the Islamic Republic of Iran, at FBIS, 

IAP200505288011015, May 28, 2005; “Iran: Khamene’i Hails Majles Stand on Nuclear Issue, Warns of 

‘Enemy Plans,” Tehran Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Radio 1, in FBIS IAP20050529012. 22 See <www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_29-3-2005_pg4_19>. 23 Some of the nuclear revelations came from the National Council of Resistance, a cover name 

for the outlawed Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), and an unknown number of alleged nuclear spies were 

arrested. According to the Iranian press, the Intelligence Ministry linked those arrested to the MEK, 

Iraq, the United States, and/or Israel, but former Intelligence Minister Ali Fallahian, now a member 

of the Majles, accused Khatami’s supporters of spying. On August 31, Iranian Intelligence Minister 

Ali Yunesi said that “dozens of spies, including some nuclear spies operating in the main state institutions and organizations had been identified and arrested.” The conservative press criticized Rohani in 

particular, referring to “dark motives” and “treasonous policies,” which “could annihilate thousands 

of innocent people.” See Fars News Agency, November 17, 2004, and December 2, 2004, accessed at 

<www.farsnews.ir/>; Babrak draft paper, 28–32. 24 See Iranian Students News Agency, February 4, 2005; Babrak cites Rohani saying that 

Khamenei had approved all of Iran’s negotiating positions. Kamel, 42–43. 25 See, for example, Kamel, 17–19. 26 An Iranian official who had met with American nonproliferation specialist George Perkovich, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, at a conference in Tehran in March 2005 expressed support for Perkovich’s recommendations for alternative, overt, and legitimate joint projects 

on uranium enrichment—apparently the suggestion was to process Iranian uranium in India, thereby 

negating the need for Iran to build facilities. See George Perkovich with Silvia Manzanero, draft, “The 
Global Consequences of Iran’s Acquisition of Nuclear Weapons,” available at <www.npec-web.org/

projects/Iran/Perkovich.pdf>.

27 Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Quds [Jerusalem] Day sermon, December 14, 2001, cited by 

Babrak Kamel.

28 Many Israelis were born in Iran—including President Moshe Katsav, who was born in the 

same city as President Khatami, according to Israeli press reports—and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz.

29 Comments made at NDU, January 26, 2005.

30 Ibid.

31 Ibid. See the paper by Gerald Steinberg in appendix C.

32 Ibid.

33 The three wars are the 8-year between Iraq and Iran, 1980–1988; the war to liberate Kuwait, 

1990–1991; and the 2003 war to remove the regime of Saddam Husayn.

34 In meetings over the past several years, Iranian officials, diplomats, and scholars—as well as 

Gulf scholars with Western counterparts—have made this comment.

35 In the 1980s, as a result of Iranian-inspired anti-U.S. demonstrations and riots while on 

pilgrimage which led to the deaths of more than 400 Iranian pilgrims, Iran was banned from sending 

pilgrims on hajj for several years. Then President Rafsanjani initiated restoration of relations and hajj

privileges with the Saudis in the 1990s.

36 Iraq is committed to comply with all United Nations Security Council resolutions from the 

Kuwait War, which include a ban on new weapons of mass destruction development, but it is difficult 

to see this restriction in place once Iran has nuclear weapons and if Iraq remains an American ally.

37 Andrew Feickert, “Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities,” Congressional Research Service Report, RS21548, August 23, 2004.

38 Quoted by George Perkovich, “For Tehran, Nuclear Program Is a Matter of National 

Pride,” Yale Global, March 21, 2005, available at <www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.

cfm?fa=print&id=16694>.

39 Iranian television, BBC Monitoring, July 6, 2004.

40 George W. Bush, remarks at the Newspaper Association of America Annual Convention, Washington, DC, April 21, 2004, available at <www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/04/

20040421-5.html>.

41 See Kurt M. Campbell, Robert J. Einhorn, and Mitchell B. Reiss, eds., The Nuclear Tipping 

Point: Why States Reconsider Their Nuclear Choices (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institute 

Press, 2004).

42 See, for example, Perkovich, “The Global Consequences of Iran’s Acquisition of Nuclear 

Weapons.”

43 Economists on Iran differ sharply with economists from Iran on the country’s economic 

prospects and performance; they agree, however, on the need for legal and political reforms to make 

Iran a safe and attractive place for foreign investment. See unpublished papers from INSS–Woodrow 

Wilson conference on Iran After 25 Years of Revolution, held in November 2004; papers to be published in joint INSS–Wilson Center publication. 

44 Schake and Yaphe.

45 See, for example, Kenneth M. Pollack and Ray Takeyh, “Taking on Tehran,” Foreign Affairs 

84, no. 2 (March/April 2005), 20–34.

46 Rogue elements could include individuals such as Ali Mohtashami-pur, now a reformist 

and Majles member; in the 1980s, he was a chief architect and hard-line supporter of exporting Iran’s 

revolution and encouraged Hizballah terrorist operations against American, French, and moderate 

Arab targets.

 ENDNOTES 47

Appendix A

Timeline of Iran’s Path to 

Nuclear Weapons

David Albright

1957: Iran and the United States sign a civil nuclear cooperation

agreement that provides for technical assistance and the lease of several

kilograms of enriched uranium. It also calls for both countries to

cooperate in research on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

1967: Startup of the U.S.-supplied thermal research reactor at the Tehran

Nuclear Research Center.

1968: Iran signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The treaty

is ratified by Iran in 1970.

1974: The shah establishes the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran and

announces that Iran will produce 23,000 megawatts of nuclear power by

the end of the century. Iran contracts with a German company to build a

power reactor at Bushehr.

1975: Iran and the United States sign a trade agreement, which calls for

the purchase of eight reactors.

1976: Iran purchases stakes in Eurodif’s Tricastin uranium enrichment

plant in France and the RTZ uranium mine in Rossing, Namibia. South

Africa agrees to sell Iran $700 million of yellowcake. In return, Iran agrees

to finance an enrichment plant in South Africa.

1977: Iran contracts with a French company to build two reactors at

Darkhovin. Following the Islamic revolution,Iran cancels the contract in 1979.

1979: Following the takeover of its embassy in Tehran, the United States

cuts off all nuclear agreements with Iran.

1984: Iran opens a nuclear research center at Isfahan.

49
50 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

1985: Iran begins its gas centrifuge program during the war with Iraq,

in which both use chemical weapons against each other. Iran claims the

only purpose of its centrifuge program is to make fuel for the Germansupplied power reactor under construction at Bushehr. The claim is

dubious; by 1985, Germany had suspended all work at the reactor, which

was heavily damaged during the war, and did not resume construction at

war’s end. The decision is widely perceived as being part of an effort to

make highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.

1987: Iran announces plans to set up a yellowcake plant in Yazd province

and signs a nuclear cooperation agreement with Pakistan.

1990: Iran signs nuclear cooperation agreements with China and the

Soviet Union.

1992: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections in Iran

find no evidence of illegal nuclear activity. A followup visit 1 year later

also detects no evidence.

1994: Iran and China announce an agreement to build a 300-megawatt

reactor near Tehran.

1995: Russia signs a contract to finish the Bushehr reactor, and Iran

accelerates its gas centrifuge program. While no one has produced

compelling evidence that Iran has a nuclear weapons program, the

timing, scope, and long secrecy of the program lead many nations to

conclude that Iran either had or has a nuclear weapons program.

1997: China agrees to halt nuclear assistance to Iran.

2002: The National Council of Resistance in Iran, an Iraq-based

opposition group, reveals the existence of the previously unknown

uranium-enrichment facility at Natanz and a heavy-water production

plant at Arak.

2003: International focus shifts to Iran’s secret nuclear programs and its

violations of its IAEA safeguards agreement and the NPT. In October,

the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany

(known as the European Union [EU]–3) and Hassan Rohani, secretary

of the powerful Supreme National Security Council, reach agreement

requiring Iran to cooperate fully with the IAEA to resolve outstanding

issues, voluntarily suspend its activities related to uranium enrichment

and reprocessing, and sign and start the ratification process of the IAEA
advanced safeguards protocol.1 In return, the EU–3 foreign ministers

promise that their governments will recognize Iran’s right to the peaceful

uses of nuclear energy in accordance with the NPT, and express their

willingness to help resolve the situation with the IAEA board of governors

and promote regional security and stability. They also commit their

governments to provide Iran with easier access to modern technology and

supplies. Iran signs the Additional Protocol and announces it will act as if

it were in force pending ratification by its parliament.

2004: Additional undeclared Iranian nuclear activities are revealed,

including secret acquisition of advanced P2 centrifuge designs and

components from Pakistan. Iran is slow to suspend its centrifuge

operations, deciding that some components would continue to be made

by private companies having contracts that, it said, could not be broken.

In May, Iran informs the IAEA that it is not committed to ending

production of uranium hexafluoride, the chemical form of uranium

used inside gas centrifuges. Pressure builds on the EU not to provide

benefits to Iran. On June 23, Iran tells the IAEA that it will resume

manufacturing, assembling, and testing centrifuge components, but will

not restart enriching uranium and will conduct all its activities under

IAEA supervision. Four days later, Iran cuts the IAEA seals on its existing

stock of components and starts assembling centrifuges.

Iran announces in September that it will likely start enriching

uranium later in the year. IAEA Director Mohamed El-Baradei tells the

IAEA Board of Governors on September 1 that Iran intends to convert 37

metric tons of yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride, the “feed” material

that is enriched in gas centrifuges. While 37 metric tons is a small

quantity for a civilian nuclear power program, it is sufficient material

to make roughly five crude nuclear weapons. The IAEA calls on Iran to

suspend all enrichment-related activities immediately and reconsider its

decision to construct a heavy-water research reactor. Iranian officials call

the resolution illegal or unjust and vow to persist in developing the entire

fuel cycle. The Iranian public claims strong support for continuing all

nuclear activities. Iranian Vice President Reza Aghazadeh tells reporters

that Iran continues to produce uranium hexafluoride gas, although

the amounts produced appear to be relatively small. Rohani, the EU’s

counterpart in negotiations, criticizes the resolution but stops short of

rejecting it outright or foreclosing negotiations. In November, the EU and

Iran agree to re-impose and extend suspension of Iran’s nuclear activities.

There are no further revelations about undeclared nuclear activities in

 APPENDIX A 51
52 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Iran, and Iran apparently suspends operations. Meetings between the

EU–3 and Iran continue through spring 2005, but are inconclusive.

2005: Meeting with the EU–3 foreign ministers in Geneva in late May,

Iran pledges to honor commitments made in talks in Paris earlier in the

year to suspend uranium-enrichment activities, which British Foreign

Minister Jack Straw interpreted as a “reaffirmation of Iran’s commitment

not to seek nuclear weapons.” Hassan Rohani, the chief Iranian negotiator,

says an agreement with the EU could be reached “within a reasonably

short time.” The EU, for its part, promises to submit detailed proposals

to implement the Paris agreements by the beginning of August 2005. The

next day, the EU supports—and the United States does not oppose—

Iran’s application for membership in the World Trade Organization.

Note1

 “Agreed Statement at the End of a Visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran by the Foreign Ministers of Britain, France, and Germany,” October 31, 2003.
Appendix B

Iran’s Nuclear Program: 

Status, Risks, and Prospects

David Albright1

The next several months may well decide whether Iran will develop 

a capability to make nuclear weapons—in particular, developing 

the wherewithal to produce separated plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU). The outcome depends critically on negotiations 

being carried out by Great Britain, France, and Germany with Iran to 

establish a framework requiring Iran to suspend permanently “enrichment- and reprocessing-related activities”—the activities necessary to 

produce HEU, separate plutonium, and build an indigenous nuclear 

reactor. In return, Iran would receive a range of economic, political, and 

security benefits from the European Union (EU) and other nations. A recent decision by Iran to suspend temporarily its enrichment- and reprocessing-related activities now permits these negotiations on a permanent 

suspension to proceed.

The most advanced of Iran’s sensitive nuclear projects involves 

gas centrifuges, sophisticated devices to enrich uranium. This project 

started 20 years ago and progressed in secret until late 2002. By the time 

Iran revealed this program to the International Atomic Energy Agency 

(IAEA) in early 2003, it had almost reached an industrial scale at the 

Natanz facility, near Kashan in central Iran. In the process, it had also violated its IAEA safeguards agreement multiple times.

Despite repeated attempts, Iran has convinced few that the purpose of its large nuclear program is purely peaceful. For example, Iran 

declared to the IAEA in 2003 that it began its gas centrifuge program in 

1985 during its bloody war with Iraq. This decision is widely perceived 

as having been part of an effort to make HEU for nuclear weapons. Iran 

claimed that the only purpose of its centrifuge program was to make 

fuel for the German-supplied Bushehr power reactor—a claim that is 

highly dubious, given the reality that by 1985, Germany had suspended 

53
54 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

all work at the reactor. After the war with Iraq ended, Germany never 

resumed construction, and in 1995, Russia signed a contract to finish it. 

Yet throughout the decade, while the fate of the reactor at Bushehr was 

uncertain, Iran accelerated its gas centrifuge program. Although no one 

has produced a “smoking gun” proving that Iran has a nuclear weapons 

program, the timing, scope, and long secrecy of the program have led 

many nations to conclude that Iran either had or has one. In any case, once 

it finishes its uranium enrichment or reprocessing facilities, Iran could 

decide to obtain nuclear weapons and proceed quickly to produce nuclear 

explosive materials in these facilities. For these reasons, many nations 

believe Iran should be persuaded to abandon at least its enrichment- and 

reprocessing-related activities.

Background on Suspension

Soon after the IAEA focused on Iran in early 2003, the suspension of activities related to uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing was viewed as being at the heart of any potential solution to the 

conflict over Iran’s nuclear program. Although initial concern focused 

on Iran’s secret nuclear programs and its violation of its IAEA safeguards 

agreement and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), many believed that bringing Iran into compliance with the NPT was not sufficient 

to solve this crisis.

October 2003 Tehran Agreement

Because of the European Union’s relationship with Iran, Britain, 

France, and Germany, called the EU–3, took the lead in negotiating a suspension in Iran’s uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities. In October 2003, the British, French, and German foreign ministers and Hassan Rohani, secretary of the powerful Supreme National Security Council, 

reached an agreement requiring Iran to cooperate fully with the IAEA to 

address and resolve outstanding issues, voluntarily suspend its activities 

related to uranium enrichment and reprocessing, and sign and start the 

ratification process of the IAEA advanced safeguards protocol.2

 In return, 

the EU–3 foreign ministers promised that their governments would recognize Iran’s right to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy in accordance 

with the NPT and expressed their willingness to help resolve the situation 

with the IAEA board of governors and promote security and stability in 

the region. They also committed their governments to provide Iran easier 

access to modern technology and supplies once international concerns 

were fully resolved. The latter was conditioned, according to a participant 
in the meeting, on an indefinite continuance of the suspension of enrichment activities.

At first, Iranian cooperation with the IAEA appeared to improve. 

Iran signed the Additional Protocol and announced it would act as if 

it were in force pending ratification by its parliament. It also started to 

implement the suspension itself. In early 2004, some EU officials wanted 

to start to deliver some incentives to Iran. They were concerned that 

Iran needed some immediate benefits to build domestic support for the 

October agreement, which powerful factions within Iran were known to 

oppose. Problems in implementing the agreement had developed, however, leading to pressure on the EU not to provide benefits. Additional 

undeclared Iranian nuclear activities were revealed, including its secret 

acquisition of advanced P2 centrifuge designs and components from Pakistan. Iran was also slow in suspending its centrifuge operations, deciding 

that some components would continue to be made under contracts with 

private companies that, it said, could not be broken. Iran also asserted in 

a May 18, 2004, letter to the IAEA that it was not committed to ending 

its production of uranium hexafluoride, the chemical form of uranium 

used inside gas centrifuges. The EU believed that to be a reinterpretation 

of the October 2003 agreement. Also contrary to the EU’s understanding 

was Iran’s intention to build a heavy-water research reactor. Then, on June 

23, Iran told the IAEA that it would resume manufacturing centrifuge 

components and assembling and testing centrifuges. But, Iranian officials 

said, it would not restart enriching uranium, and it would conduct all its 

activities under IAEA supervision.

On June 27, Iran cut the IAEA seals on its existing stock of centrifuge components and started assembling centrifuges. Manufacturing of 

certain key components was delayed because Iran had dismantled its centrifuge manufacturing capabilities at military sites and moved the equipment and components to the Natanz site, partly as a way to avoid IAEA

inspections at these military facilities. 

September 2004 IAEA Board of Governors Meeting

The director general of the IAEA, Mohamed al-Baradei, reported 

to the board of governors on September 1, 2004, that Iran intended to convert 37 metric tons of yellowcake into uranium hexafluoride, the feed material that is enriched in gas centrifuges. It was a surprising revelation—37 

metric tons is a small quantity for a civilian nuclear power program. But it 

would be a large amount for a fledgling nuclear weapons program—enough 

material to make roughly five crude nuclear weapons. Iran’s processing of 

 APPENDIX B 55
56 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

yellowcake represented another step in the abandonment of its agreement 

with the EU. Iranian officials reportedly also stated in September that Iran 

would likely start enriching uranium later that year.

The breakdown of the agreement alarmed members of the 

European Union and the United States. Joschka Fischer, the German Foreign Minister and a leader of the EU’s effort in Iran, said on September 

13: “There is a risk Iran is making a huge error. I hope they understand 

that. If not, we will end up in a very serious situation.” The suspension 

issue dominated the IAEA’s board of governors meeting, held September 

13–18. During the contentious debate over a resolution on the matter, the 

United States argued that Iran should be referred to the United Nations 

(UN) Security Council and tried to add language to a draft resolution 

requiring Iran to remedy “all failures identified to date” no later than October 31. The EU refused to accept such a rigid trigger, preferring to give 

Iran one last chance for a negotiated solution, with language included in 

the resolution requiring the board to make a “definitive determination on 

whether or not further steps are required.” Members of the nonaligned 

movement, led by South Africa and Brazil, were alarmed that the resolution would deny Iran the right to peaceful nuclear activities, namely the 

right to process uranium for nuclear fuel.

In the end, the board adopted a consensus resolution that was 

somewhat weaker than the original EU proposal, but considerably stronger than that called for by the nonaligned members. It called on Iran to 

suspend all enrichment-related activities immediately and as a matter of 

necessity to reconsider its decision to construct a heavy-water research 

reactor. The resolution created a trigger for action, stating that the board 

“will decide whether or not further steps are appropriate” in November. 

The EU and the United States left little doubt that failure on Iran’s part 

could lead to a referral to the Security Council. The board meeting and 

resolution also focused on the IAEA’s 2-year effort to verify that Iran’s 

nuclear program was solely for peaceful purposes. The IAEA began 

its intensive investigation in 2002 after learning that Iran was building 

nuclear sites in secret. Complicating the process, Iran provided a series of 

incomplete and changing declarations and delayed inspectors’ access to 

key sites.

The new resolution required the IAEA to produce a comprehensive report before the November meeting that recapitulated its 

findings since September 2002 and analyzed in detail the implications 

of those findings with regard to Iran’s implementation of its IAEA safeguards agreement. It stated that the board will also consider this report 
in deciding future steps. After the meeting, Fischer issued a statement 

expressing the EU’s keen interest in resuming negotiations that might 

persuade Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities permanently in 

return for more immediate benefits.

Iran initially sent a mixed signal in response to the board’s resolution. Many Iranian officials called the resolution illegal or unjust and 

vowed to persist in developing the entire fuel cycle. The Iranian public 

was widely reported to support strongly continuing all nuclear activities. Iranian Vice President Reza Aghazadeh said to reporters soon after 

the meeting that Iran continued to produce uranium hexafluoride gas, 

although the amounts produced appeared to be relatively small. Hassan 

Rohani, the EU’s counterpart in negotiations, criticized the resolution but 

stopped short of rejecting it outright or foreclosing negotiations. 

New Suspension Deal

Following meetings in Vienna and Paris during October and 

November 2004, the EU and Iran agreed to reimpose and extend a suspension on Iran’s nuclear activities. The model for agreement still holds. 

Under its terms, which call for a comprehensive suspension and no new 

revelations about undeclared nuclear activities, Iran could expect to avoid 

being referred to the UN Security Council. Once the IAEA confirmed 

Iranian cooperation, the EU would begin negotiations on a permanent 

suspension in return for long-term benefits. Iranian officials have said 

that they view any suspension as temporary. While the arrangement 

between the EU and Iran does not explicitly discuss the duration of the 

suspension, it reportedly commits Iran to continue with the suspension 

while details of a longer-term agreement are worked out. The suspension, 

nuclear-related benefits, and the necessary restructuring of the Iranian 

nuclear program are discussed below.

The nonnuclear benefits proposed by the EU–3 are substantial. 

Although many had been offered earlier, the EU–3 created a set of benefits in a single package that was apparently presented to the Iranians 

in October 2004 in Vienna. The EU said it would be ready to resume 

negotiations on trade and cooperation agreements with Iran, and that 

this cooperation could develop into broader areas including investment, 

earthquake-proof buildings and seismology, scientific research, civil aviation, railway transport, petrochemical industry, communication and information technology, car manufacturing, and nonnuclear energy needs. 

The EU would also continue to support Iran’s admission to the World 

Trade Organization. Furthermore, the EU proposed security assurances; 

 APPENDIX B 57
58 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

cooperation against drug trafficking and terrorism, including listing 

anti-Iranian Mujahideen-e khalk as a terrorist organization; and support 

for an initiative creating a Middle East weapons of mass destruction–free 

zone. In addition, the EU would cooperate with Iran to establish and develop an effective national system of export, transit, and end-use control 

of WMD-related goods and technologies, including dual-use and containing enforcement procedures with appropriate penalties.

If Iran refused to suspend or did not maintain its agreed suspension of enrichment, Britain, France, and Germany said they would join 

the United States in referring the Iranian nuclear issue to the UN Security 

Council. In doing so, they would cite Iran’s past noncompliance with its 

safeguards obligations and failure to respond to repeated requests of the 

board of governors to suspend key activities. The EU–3 told the UN Security Council that they would support a series of incremental actions, 

starting with a political call for suspension. If that was not successful, the 

Security Council could consider making the suspension mandatory and 

strengthening the powers of the IAEA to undertake inspections in Iran. 

If Iran subsequently rejected Security Council demands, the EU–3 would 

support taking further actions under Article 41 of the UN Charter, in applying sanctions on Iran.

The EU Deal and Its Impact on Iran’s 

Nuclear Program

Britain, France, and Germany outlined their approach to Iranian 

nuclear issues in an October 12, 2004, paper presented at a Group of Eight 

(G–8) meeting in Washington, DC. In this paper, which was obtained by 

Agence France Presse, the EU focused on a two-step process whereby Iran 

would immediately suspend all enrichment- and reprocessing-related activities and agree in the longer term to a permanent cessation to its sensitive fuel cycle activities.

Short-Term Conditions

The European Union recognized Iran’s right to develop, research, 

and use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. However, because of Iran’s 

past failures to comply with its safeguards obligations and widespread 

concern that Iran might be developing nuclear technology for purposes 

forbidden under the NPT, the EU insisted that Iran suspend activities related to developing the nuclear fuel cycle since mastering this technology 

would provide Iran with the option of a military capability.
Although Iran agreed in October 2003 to suspend certain activities 

to build confidence with the IAEA and the international community, it only 

partially implemented the suspension and later retracted most of it. As a 

result, the EU paper was more explicit in defining a suspension of Iran’s gas 

centrifuge and reprocessing programs. It defined suspension to include:

■ the manufacture and import of gas centrifuges and other components

■ the assembly, installation, testing, or operation of gas centrifuges

■ the production of feed material for enrichment processes, including 

all activities to test or operate the uranium conversion facility (UCF)

■ all other enrichment and reprocessing activities, including work to 

construct or operate any plutonium separation facility.

The definition was to ensure that Iran understood that it must 

verifiably stop all key activities related to gas centrifuges, from component 

manufacturing to feed material production. Iran, for example, has argued 

for exempting from suspension portions of its uranium conversion facility near Esfahan, which has been converting yellowcake into uranium 

hexafluoride. In late October 2004, Iranian atomic officials announced 

that the UCF was 70 percent operational and construction and testing 

were continuing.3 Although the suspension does not appear aimed at 

stopping construction activities, the definition would require Iran to halt 

processing yellowcake into refined forms even in tests. This definition 

would appear to cover not just uranium hexafluoride but also uranium 

tetrafluoride, uranium oxide, and other chemical compounds produced 

in the UCF.

One problem remained in implementing the EU definition of suspension at the uranium conversion facility. The language in the September 

2004 resolution called on Iran to suspend the production of feed material immediately, including through tests of production at the UCF. This 

language was weaker and less inclusive than the EU language noted above 

and, moreover, could be interpreted to apply only to uranium hexafluoride 

and not its precursors, particularly uranium tetrafluoride, the immediate 

precursor of uranium hexafluoride. The inclusion of uranium tetrafluoride 

in the suspension is important because it would prevent Iran from increasing its stock of this material and rapidly converting it into uranium hexafluoride if it opted out of the suspension.

Iran accepted the more restrictive language on its activities at 

UCF. In its November 14, 2004, letter to the IAEA, Iran wrote that the 

 APPENDIX B 59
60 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

suspension included “all tests and production for conversion at any 

uranium conversion installation.”4 However, it also stated that it would 

continue to operate the facility until November 22, producing uranium 

tetrafluoride but no uranium hexafluoride during that period. Of the 37 

tons of yellowcake assigned to the UCF last summer, the operator told the 

IAEA in October that about 22.5 tons had been fed into the process.5

 By 

October 14, the facility had made about 2 tons of uranium tetrafluoride 

and evidently no uranium hexafluoride. It remains unclear how much 

uranium tetrafluoride will have been produced by the time the suspension starts.

The EU does not call for the removal from Iran of already produced uranium hexafluoride or its precursors, such as purified uranium 

oxide or uranium tetrafluoride. It accepts their presence of existing stocks 

of uranium tetrafluoride, uranium fluoride, and other uranium compounds 

in Iran under stringent safeguards. In addition, a range of other key items, 

such as enriched uranium, centrifuge components, manufacturing equipment, and centrifuge-related materials, will require careful monitoring.

Nor does the EU–3 paper explicitly state that uranium-mining 

activities are included in a suspension. Work continues on Iran’s first two 

uranium mines, the Saghand mine in Yazd and the Gehine mine near 

Bandar Abbas. According to the November 2004 IAEA safeguards report, 

the Saghand mine and associated yellowcake production mill each have 

a capacity of 50 tons of uranium per year. Ore production is expected to 

start by the end of 2006. The Gehine mine and associated mill each have 

a capacity of 21 tons of uranium per year. Mining operations had started 

as of July 2004, and a test quantity of yellowcake has been produced at the 

mill from the mined ore, according to the IAEA.

Despite some omissions from the initial suspension, the suspension as agreed is adequate. If fully implemented, the agreement can demonstrate Iran’s commitment to finding a way to solve this crisis and lay the 

basis for a long-term negotiated agreement between the EU and Iran.

Long-Term Goals and Their Implications for Iran’s Nuclear Program

The heart of the EU proposal for a long-term agreement with 

Iran is to obtain lasting assurances about the peaceful purposes of its 

nuclear program and to reward Iran for its cooperation. The undertakings requested of Iran in the nuclear field would have far-reaching effects 

on its fuel cycle activities, although it would receive substantial and lasting economic, energy, and security benefits in return. The EU proposal 

would shift Iran’s nuclear program to production of nuclear electricity 
in imported light-water power reactors, including the Russian-supplied 

Bushehr reactor, and to a range of civil nuclear energy activities, including nuclear medicine, nuclear research, nuclear safety, and industrial isotope applications. If a long-term agreement were negotiated, Iran would 

retain a significant and sophisticated nuclear energy program that would 

be well integrated with national nuclear programs throughout the world. 

Key voluntary Iranian nuclear constraints as outlined in the EU October 

paper include:

■ commitment of full cooperation and transparency with IAEA to 

resolve all remaining issues and to implement the advanced protocol. Ratification of the protocol would occur by the end of 2005.

■ objective guarantees that Iran would not develop a nuclear weapons capability; that is, it will cease to develop or operate facilities 

that would give it the capability to produce fissile material, including any enrichment or reprocessing capability. This means that in 

addition to Iran stopping enrichment-related activities, it would 

also abandon the development of indigenous reactors, such as 

the heavy-water reactor at Arak, and send any spent fuel from its 

power and perhaps imported research reactors outside of Iran.

■ substitution of a light-water research reactor for the heavy-water 

research reactor project planned at Arak. The EU would support 

the acquisition of this reactor, but it apparently would be imported, 

designed to avoid the use of HEU fuel, and severely limited in its 

production of plutonium. The two goals can be achieved by using 

fuel enriched to about 19 percent uranium-235. This material 

would still be low-enriched uranium. When irradiated in a reactor, 

little plutonium would be produced.

Russia has agreed to provide and reprocess fuel and take back 

spent fuel from Iran. The EU has agreed to support Russian-Iranian cooperation in the field of power reactors, fuel supply, and management, 

which could include reprocessing of the spent fuel outside Iran. If separated plutonium is produced, it would evidently not be returned to Iran.

For its part, Iran could expect wide-ranging nuclear cooperation 

with the EU, which would give Iran political assurances of access to the 

international nuclear fuel market at market prices consistent with G–8 

and Nuclear Supplier Group assurances, as well as with spent fuel being 

returned and reprocessed outside Iran. This condition could imply that 

 APPENDIX B 61
62 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

EU nations would provide fuel to Iran and take back the spent fuel. Any 

reprocessing would likely occur well after the fuel is returned.

The Bush administration in spring 2005 said it supports the EU

initiative toward Iran, although it has indicated willingness to accept Iran 

obtaining nuclear power or research reactors. Thus, it is unclear whether 

this policy could become G–8 policy. During the process of creating a 

permanent suspension, the EU and other countries should propose that 

Iran verifiably dismantle its existing facilities and items related to uranium enrichment and reprocessing. Although such an effort is currently 

premature and, in any case, would depend on negotiations succeeding on 

long-term issues, it would have the benefit of creating an irreversible arrangement, similar to what was done in Libya and South Africa.

Remaining Safeguards Issues

In parallel with suspension negotiations, the IAEA has been 

trying to resolve other safeguard issues with Iran. Although the IAEA

reported in November 2004 that all the declared nuclear material in Iran 

had been accounted for and, therefore, had not been diverted to prohibited activities, the IAEA is “not yet in a position to conclude that there are 

no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran.”

During summer and early fall 2004, the IAEA cleared up some 

outstanding safeguard issues, including Iran’s experimental laser enrichment activities, and no additional undeclared Iranian nuclear activities 

emerged. Other safeguard issues remain, according to the IAEA, including the origin of enriched uranium contamination found at various locations in Iran, and the extent of efforts to import, manufacture, and use 

centrifuges of both the P1 and P2 designs.

The IAEA was able to assess that Iran had not produced HEU

at its two major declared research and development sites, Kalaye and 

Natanz. However, the IAEA needs to do more work to establish that undeclared enrichment has not taken place at other locations and that no 

undeclared enriched uranium has been imported from abroad. The IAEA

is still investigating Iran’s P1 and P2 gas centrifuge program. An important issue outstanding is whether Iran conducted any P2 work between 

1995—when Iran first received the P2 designs from overseas—and 2002, 

which is when, Iranian officials say, work on the P2 started. The inspectors need more cooperation from Pakistan. Although it is providing information and sampling data, the government of Pakistan refuses to allow 

the IAEA to question A.Q. Khan or take samples in the country. Without 
this type of access, the IAEA might not be able to finish its assessments of 

Iran’s nuclear program and declaration.

Weaponization Issues

Questions remain about whether Iran has conducted activities 

to research, test, and produce a nuclear weapon, a process called nuclear 

weaponization. Although the U.S. Government and Israel have stated for 

years that Iran has a nuclear weapons program, they have not provided the 

IAEA or the public with the location of any nuclear weaponization sites or 

any direct evidence of such activities. They have arrived at their conclusion 

that Iran has a nuclear weapons program largely through assessments.

One theory is that the Khan network, which supplied both Libya’s 

and Iran’s gas centrifuge program, supplied Iran with a weapon design. 

Libya received detailed nuclear weapons design and fabrication documents 

from the Khan network, leading to suspicions that Iran also received them, 

something Iran and Pakistan deny. The design supplied to Libya appears to 

be for a Chinese warhead that was tested on a missile in the mid-1960s and 

provided to Pakistan in the early 1980s. The warhead has a mass of about 

500 kilograms and measures less than a meter in diameter, small enough 

for the Iranian Shahab-3 missile. If Iran received this information, it would 

have been able to shorten the difficult process of developing a deliverable 

nuclear warhead. If it received the designs several years ago, Iran could 

have already finished all the necessary research and development for a 

nuclear warhead and perhaps even stockpiled key components.

The IAEA is evaluating Iranian sites that could have been or 

potentially could be used for nuclear weaponization activities, although 

no unambiguous sites have been identified. Nonetheless, the IAEA has 

sought to visit several sites to check out suspicions of nuclear weaponization work.

Lavizan-Shian. In early June 2004, ABC News received information about Lavizan, in the northeastern section of Tehran. ABC asked the 

Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) for help in assessing 

the information. The initial information suggested the site was involved in 

some type of nuclear weaponization. An August 2003 overhead image of 

the site obtained by ISIS shows large buildings inside a secure perimeter. 

In a second image, from March 2004, the buildings have been removed 

and the earth scraped. Even the roads and walkways have been removed 

or covered. The site’s destruction raises concerns because it is the type of 

measure Iran would take if it were trying to defeat the powerful environmental sampling capabilities of IAEA inspectors. When Iran deployed less 

 APPENDIX B 63
64 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

extensive deception measures at other sites, inspectors discovered evidence that forced Iran to amend its previous statements. The Lavizan site 

was also known to house radiation-detection devices called whole-body 

counters, which Iran procured overseas in the early 1990s under false pretenses. The equipment itself is not direct evidence of a nuclear weapons 

program, but it could be out of place at a site that has no nuclear activity.

The IAEA became aware of the Lavizan-Shian site in 2003. Its 

suspicions apparently increased in early 2004 when commercial satellite imagery showed that dismantling had begun. The ABC News report 

about the site and the parallel publication of an ISIS report caused considerable public and government discussion. The IAEA asked for and received permission to visit. Iran told the IAEA that the site had no nuclear 

material requiring a declaration and that no fuel cycle activities were conducted there. The Iranians described Lavizan as owned by the Military 

Industrialization Organization (MIO). Until 1998, it was the Physics Research Center, and afterward, a biotechnology institute. The body counters arrived after 1998. Later, the counters were moved again. One went 

to an MIO university in Esfahan, the other to a private clinic in Tehran. 

Iran provided a basic description of activities at the site but was unwilling 

to provide detailed explanations about its activities or equipment, citing 

security concerns. The September 2004 IAEA director general’s report to 

the board of governors said that Iran had declared the site as a place to 

study “preparedness to combat and neutralization of casualties due to nuclear attacks and accidents (nuclear defense) and also support and provide 

scientific advice and services to the Ministry of Defense.” Iran said the site 

was razed because the land was being returned to the city of Tehran after 

a dispute between the municipality and the ministry. Iran provided the 

IAEA with supporting documents, including yellowed local newspapers 

discussing the transfer of property. As of November 2004, the IAEA was 

analyzing these documents to determine their authenticity.

The IAEA took environmental samples at Lavizan. As of November, the vegetation and soil samples showed no evidence of nuclear material, although the IAEA pointed out in the November safeguards report 

that the “detection of nuclear material in soil samples would be very difficult in light of the razing of the site.” In addition, Iran allowed IAEA access to the two whole-body counters that had been located there, and the 

IAEA took environmental samples of them. In addition, the IAEA took 

samples at a trailer that held one of the counters while it was located at 

Lavizan. Iran has not presented to the IAEA the trailer said to house the 

other counter. Results for these samples are unknown. In October 2004, 
in response to an IAEA request, Iran provided some information about 

efforts by the Physics Research Center to acquire dual-use materials and 

equipment that could be useful in uranium enrichment or conversion activities.6 The IAEA awaits additional information and clarifications from 

Iran about this matter.

Iranian statements about Lavizan’s purpose and fate have raised 

additional questions. Given the power of the Iranian military, how could 

it lose a dispute with municipal authorities, particularly given the large 

size of the adjacent park and the considerable investment already made at 

the site? Or had the military decided that the site was compromised, and 

moved to improve its cover story by transferring the site to municipal authorities? No direct evidence points to the site being involved in nuclear 

weaponization, centrifuge activities, or other banned activities such as 

biological weapons work, but the IAEA investigation remains incomplete 

and further Iranian cooperation and information are required.

Parchin. Information obtained by ABC News led ISIS to acquire 

satellite images of the Parchin military complex, located about 30 kilometers southeast of Tehran. This huge complex is dedicated to research, development, and production of ammunition, rockets, and high explosives. 

The site, owned by Iran’s military industry, has hundreds of buildings 

and test sites. Within the larger complex, there is an isolated, separately 

secured site that is a logical candidate for nuclear weapons–related activities. But evidence of nuclear weapons work is ambiguous. The IAEA has 

known about this site for some time and has independently assessed its 

potential for nuclear weapons work. Several weeks before the September 

2004 board of governors meeting, the IAEA asked Iran about visiting the 

location, but Iran expressed willingness to allow a visit only after ABC

News and ISIS revealed their findings during the September board meeting. Although the timing of the ABC News report was not intentional, the 

reports caused considerable controversy at the board meeting, intensifying pressure on Iran to permit an IAEA visit. However, as of mid-November, the IAEA still had not visited Parchin.

High-explosive testing facilities at Parchin could be useful to a 

nuclear weapons effort, particularly by providing the capability to research and develop high-explosive components for an implosion-type nuclear weapon. Buildings in one area appear to have flash X-rays and fast 

cameras for recording explosions. Evidence against the area being solely 

dedicated to high-explosive work is another building that appears to have 

a pad oriented for testing small rocket motors, not high explosives.

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66 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

Nearby, but more isolated, is what appears to be a high-explosive 

testing bunker, perhaps still under construction. Such a bunker, which is 

partly buried, would allow the study of large explosions for a variety of 

purposes, including the development of nuclear weapons. The presence 

of this structure has increased suspicion that the site might be involved 

in researching nuclear weapons. This bunker could be where Iran would 

test a full-scale mock-up of a nuclear explosive using natural or depleted 

uranium as a surrogate for a highly enriched uranium core. Such tests can 

provide key confirmation that a nuclear weapon will work adequately. 

Iraq had constructed a high-explosive testing bunker at Al Atheer before the 1991 Persian Gulf War partly for such a purpose. The bunker 

at Parchin has some similar characteristics, such as being partly buried. 

However, the imagery of the bunker at Parchin is not sufficient to draw 

detailed comparisons.

Timetable to a Bomb

Uncertainty surrounds whether Iran will accept a permanent suspension of its enrichment- and reprocessing-related activities. In addition, 

the IAEA has not yet finished its investigation of Iran’s nuclear program. 

Iran could decide to restart its fissile material production programs, if it 

cannot successfully negotiate a long-term deal with the EU or if it decides 

that its national interest is best served by obtaining nuclear weapons capability. If it does, how soon could it produce enough fissile material for 

a nuclear weapon? How large could its capacity to produce nuclear explosive material become?

The answers to these questions are complicated and depend on 

many factors. For example, if Iran ends the suspension, would the UN

Security Council impose economic and military sanctions, harming its effort to scale up its gas centrifuge program or build a heavy-water reactor? 

Would IAEA inspections continue, implying that Iran might move to develop a nuclear weapons capability but produce only low-enriched uranium 

and not any highly enriched uranium? Would Iran withdraw from the NPT, 

expel inspectors and concentrate on building secret nuclear facilities? What 

resources would Iran apply to finishing its uranium enrichment facilities? 

Would there be military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites?

Despite these uncertainties, a preliminary understanding of the 

time needed for Iran to build its first nuclear weapon can be gained by 

using publicly available information. In this case, the estimate assumes that 

Iran will proceed at a pace similar to the one it achieved prior to the most 
recent suspension agreement. One Israeli intelligence report, a portion of 

which was leaked to the media, claims that Iran could get enough HEU

for a first nuclear weapon by early 2007, assuming the absence of a suspension.7 As discussed below, this date is unlikely to be realistic anymore.

In early 2005, U.S. intelligence officials estimated that Iran could have 

a nuclear weapon by the end of the decade or early in the next decade.8 

Despite their disagreement, these more recent estimates of the timeline 

for Iran to build its first nuclear weapon have moved the date back from 

publicly available assessments of just 1 year ago. Reasons for the change 

include Iran’s October 2003 suspension of its enrichment program and 

greater appreciation outside Iran of technical problems in Iran’s centrifuge 

program learned as a result of the inspection effort. Iran now must solve 

these problems on its own, since outside technical assistance is no longer 

available from the Khan network.

The Problem with Centrifuges

The key to predicting a timetable is understanding the pace and 

scope of Iran’s gas centrifuge program, such as the schedule for establishing a centrifuge plant that would hold about 1,500 to 2,000 centrifuges. 

Such a facility could produce enough HEU for about one nuclear weapon 

a year. Currently, the Natanz pilot plant is slated to hold 1,000 centrifuges, although that number could be increased. If the suspension does 

not last and Iran withdraws from the NPT, Iran may choose to install its 

first several thousand centrifuges in a small, hidden facility that would 

be extremely difficult to detect.

In any case, by spring 2004, Iran had assembled about 1,140 

centrifuge rotors, a reasonable indicator of the number of centrifuges it 

possessed.9 However, only about 500 rotors were good enough to operate 

in cascades, according to knowledgeable officials. According to the September IAEA safeguards report, after resuming centrifuge manufacturing 

in June, Iran had assembled and tested about 70 centrifuge rotors by midAugust at the Natanz pilot plant. The November IAEA report stated that 

by October 10, 2004, Iran had assembled a total of 135 rotors, bringing the 

total number of assembled rotors at Natanz to 1,274. As mentioned above, 

a large number of these rotors may not be usable in an operating cascade.

With this information, the intelligence estimates can be understood. If Iran had not suspended its activities again and if it made and 

tested about 70 to 100 centrifuges per month, it could have had roughly 

800 to 1,000 good centrifuges by the end of 2004. It could then build 

another 800 to 1,200 good centrifuges in 2005, resulting in about 1,600 

 APPENDIX B 67
68 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

to 2,200 centrifuges. Another major assumption is that Iran can operate 

larger cascades successfully in this relatively short period of time. Given 

another year to make enough HEU for a nuclear weapon and a few more 

months to convert the uranium into weapon components, Iran could have 

its first nuclear weapon by early 2007. By this time, Iran would also have 

had sufficient time to prepare the other components of a nuclear weapon.

Because centrifuges are flexible, even if the cascades at the plant 

are arranged to produce only low-enriched uranium, weapons-grade 

uranium can be produced by batch recycling—that is, sending the end 

product back into the feed point of the cascade over again until the desired level of enrichment is reached. Total HEU production would not be 

affected significantly. However, this scenario of an early 2007 date in the 

absence of a suspension must be viewed as Iran’s best case under prevailing conditions. Iran could encounter technical difficulties that would 

significantly delay bringing a centrifuge plant into operation. The U.S. assessment appears to judge that Iran would encounter significant technical 

difficulties, including trouble making so many centrifuges. In addition, 

Iran does not appear to have accumulated enough experience to operate a 

cascade of centrifuges reliably. Iran had assembled 164 centrifuges into a 

cascade just before the 2003 suspension, but it did not operate it. Thus, it 

does not have sufficient experience in operating the cascade to be certain 

it would perform adequately. Centrifuges can crash during operation, 

causing other centrifuges in the cascade to fail—in essence, destroying the 

entire cascade. Thus, Iran could need several more years to gain necessary 

experience in operating test cascades and to build and operate a plant able 

to make enough HEU for nuclear weapons.

Alternative Production-Scale Plant Sites

Over a much longer period of time—one or two decades—Iran 

could greatly increase its capability to make enriched uranium in the absence of a suspension. Near the Natanz pilot plant are huge underground 

buildings, built to a depth of 75 feet and able to withstand aerial attack. If 

finished, they are slated to hold tens of thousands of centrifuges. If Iran 

decides to install all the centrifuges slated for these two underground 

buildings, it would have a capacity to produce an estimated 150,000 to 

250,000 separative work units per year, depending on whether Iran deploys the more advanced P2 centrifuge. This capacity is roughly enough 

to provide low-enriched uranium for one or two nuclear power reactors 

like the Bushehr reactor per year. Alternatively, the same capacity could 

be used to produce roughly 500 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium an-
nually. At 15 to 20 kilograms per weapon, that would be enough for 25 to 

30 nuclear weapons per year. Natanz could be operated to make low-enriched uranium fuel until Iran decided it wanted to make weapons-grade 

material. It would not take long to enrich the low-enriched material to 

weapons grade. If Natanz were operating at full capacity and batch-recycled the low-enriched uranium, the facility could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for a single weapon within days.

Arak Heavy-Water Reactor

Although most concerns focus on Iran’s gas centrifuge program, 

its indigenous reactor project could also provide the material for a nuclear 

weapon, although on a slower schedule than the gas centrifuge facilities. 

In May 2003, Iran told the IAEA that it intended to build a 40-megawattthermal heavy-water reactor at Arak, although construction of the reactor 

has not started. Iran declared that the reactor is planned to be finished 

in 2014. This reactor would be included in any suspension arrangement. 

Arak is the site of the heavy-water production facility whose existence 

was first revealed publicly by an Iranian opposition group in August 2002. 

Production is expected to start this year.

Iran told the IAEA that this reactor is part of a long-term program to manufacture heavy-water power reactors. However, heavy-water 

reactors raise additional concern because they are easier to use to make 

weapons-grade plutonium than light-water reactors. In addition, Iran 

would likely need two decades to deploy such a power reactor. Before 

any long-term plan could be realized, however, the reactor at Arak would 

need to produce about 10 kilograms of weapons-grade plutonium annually, or enough for about two nuclear weapons each year. Before it could 

use any of the plutonium in a nuclear weapon, Iran would have to separate it from the irradiated fuel. Although Iran has stated that it does not 

plan to build a plutonium separation plant, it revealed to the IAEA undeclared irradiation and processing of natural uranium targets. This revelation has increased suspicion that Iran was researching plutonium separation. In addition, information about procurement activities for a series of 

hot cells raises additional suspicion that Iran intends to build facilities at 

Arak to separate plutonium.

Conclusion

Iran does not appear to have nuclear weapons and seems unlikely 

to be able to make them for at least several years. Nonetheless, the Iranian 

nuclear situation requires urgent attention and justifies universal demands 

 APPENDIX B 69
70 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

that Iran permanently suspend its enrichment- and reprocessing-related 

activities. More than 2 years have passed since secret Iranian nuclear sites 

were first brought to public attention, and Iran is still suspected of being 

unwilling to abandon its fissile material production programs. Iran has 

too often dictated the pace of diplomatic progress, giving the impression 

that it is playing for time. If a way is not found soon to create a comprehensive permanent suspension, Iran could soon build up unstoppable 

institutional and public momentum to finish and operate its enrichment 

plant and outlast the current international diplomatic effort.

Notes1 This paper draws from four articles recently published by the author and Corey Hinderstein 

in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, particularly their most recent article, “Iran: Countdown to 

Showdown,” in vol. 60, no. 6 (November/December 2004), 67–72. For more information, see also 

“Iran: Player or Rogue,” in vol. 59, no. 5 (September/October 2003), 52–58; “Iran: Furor Over Fuel,” 

in vol. 59, no. 3 (May/June 2003), 12–15; and “The Centrifuge Connection,” in vol. 60, no. 2 (March/

April 2004), 61–66. For information on satellite images of Iranian nuclear sites discussed in this 

paper, see the Institute for Science and International Security Web site, available at <www.isis-online.

org>. It was prepared for Iran After 25 Years of Revolution, a conference sponsored by the Institute 

for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University and the Woodrow Wilson Center, 

November 16–17, 2004. 2

 “Agreed Statement at the End of a Visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran by the Foreign Ministers of Britain, France, and Germany,” October 31, 2003. 3

 “Iran Says Uranium Conversion Plant Nearly Finished,” Reuters, October 24, 2004. 4 International Atomic Energy Agency Director General, Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran, GOV/2004/83, November 15, 2004. This letter was 

quoted on page 27, paragraph 132. 5

 Ibid., 28, paragraph 135.

6

 Ibid., 22, paragraph 103.

7 Dan Williams, “Israel: No Bomb Capability Until 2007,” Reuters, July 22, 2004. 8

 In his testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Defense Intelligence 

Agency director Vice Admiral Lowell E. Jacoby, USN, stated, “Unless constrained by a nuclear nonproliferation agreement, Tehran probably will have the ability to produce nuclear weapons early in 

the next decade.” See VADM Jacoby, “Current and Projected National Security Threats to the Untied 

States,” testimony before the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 109th Congress, February 

16, 2005, available online at <http://intelligence.senate.gov/0502hrg/050216/witness.htm>. 9

 International Atomic Energy Agency Director General, Implementation of the NPT Safeguard Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran, GOV/2004/34, June 1, 2004, annex 1, page 11.
Appendix C

Walking the Tightrope: Israeli Options in 

Response to Iranian 

Nuclear Developments

Gerald Steinberg

The Iranian government’s effort to develop nuclear weapons production capability poses a formidable challenge to Israeli policymakers. From the Israeli perspective, the current Iranian regime 

is highly dangerous; its frequent emotion-filled declarations of intent to 

“wipe Israel off the map” are matched by actions. Armed with nuclear 

weapons, the radical Islamic leadership could trigger confrontations 

and crises that would quickly escalate out of control, particularly given 

its very limited knowledge of and contact with Israel, and its close links 

with terror groups such as Hizballah and Hamas. Iran, with these allies or subsidiary groups, is viewed as posing an existential threat and 

the greatest danger to national survival. Furthermore, Israeli leaders are 

cognizant of the proliferation dynamic that could be generated by Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons: Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, 

Turkey, perhaps Libya, and other states in the region might be tempted 

or pressured to follow suit. Thus, within a decade after Iran crosses the 

nuclear threshold, the Middle East would become a highly unstable 

multipolar nuclear system. And, as a result, the structure of the nonproliferation regime, including the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) 

and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards system, 

would unravel completely.

This nightmare scenario is not new and did not suddenly become 

apparent following the revelations regarding the extent of the links between Iran and A.Q. Khan, the head of the Pakistani “nuclear Walmart,” to 

use IAEA director Dr. Mohammed El-Baradei’s terminology. The evidence 

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72 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

that Iran has been secretly acquiring facilities and materials for an illicit 

nuclear weapons capability, in violation of its NPT commitments, has been 

increasingly evident. For many years, Israel has been monitoring Iranian 

efforts to enrich uranium, separate plutonium, and take other measures 

toward the production of nuclear weapons. Over a decade ago, in the early 

1990s, the late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin warned of the dangers of a 

radical Iran armed with nuclear weapons, and Deputy Defense Minister 

Mordechai Gur responded to questions on this issue raised in the Knesset 

by invoking Israel’s deterrent capability.

During this decade, Israeli leaders have struggled with this issue, 

seeking to define and implement an effective policy that would stop, or 

at least slow, the Iranian acquisition effort. High-level interdepartmental 

committees were formed to consider the diplomatic and military options 

and their implications in detail. Attempts were made to persuade suppliers, such as Russia, China, and North Korea, to “turn off the faucet” 

through which the advanced technologies and expertise flows into Iran, 

both with respect to ballistic missiles and nuclear technology. This issue 

was also at the top of the agenda in bilateral discussions on security and 

diplomatic issues held with the U.S. Government, as well as in the growing number of strategic dialogues with Great Britain, other European governments, and elsewhere. At the same time, public attention and speculation by analysts and journalists included the possibility of military action, 

similar to the 1981 operation in which the Israeli Air Force targeted the 

Osiraq reactor complex in Iraq. According to the Begin doctrine, “Under 

no circumstances would we allow the enemy to develop weapons of mass 

destruction against our nation.”1 Given the deep rejectionism, the asymmetries, and Israel’s vulnerability, a “balance of terror” was seen as ineffective and unstable.2

But beyond the inherent difficulties in launching an effective military response, as well as diplomatic costs and other complicating factors, 

Israeli leaders during the 1990s sought to avoid an armed confrontation 

that would create hostility and bitterness among the Iranian public, which 

is seen as far less obsessed with Israel than is the radical Islamic leadership. Thus, Israeli officials consistently refer to Iran as a military threat, 

but not an enemy (in contrast to Syria or Iraq under Saddam). This does 

not rule out a military option; Iran has learned the lessons of the 1981 

Osiraq operation and dispersed, hidden, and hardened its nuclear facilities, but Israel and the United States have also advanced significantly in 

terms of intelligence, targeting, and penetration. A preventive strike, however, is clearly a problematic option.
Another approach adopted by some Israeli policymakers argued 

that diplomatic efforts to slow Iran’s effort to acquire the technology and 

materials necessary for the production of nuclear weapons (particularly 

fuel cycle components) would allow time for Iranian political dynamics to 

unfold, leading to regime change. When the “reform movement” in Iran 

was seen to be gaining momentum and support under President Khatami 

and other “moderate” leaders, it was possible to envision a post-revolutionary government that would not be interested in pursuing nuclear 

weapons or would view the costs of proceeding as too high. Or, if this approach failed, such a pragmatic leadership would at least not be obsessed 

by Israel, and a nuclear weapons capability would be far less threatening 

and destabilizing. However, in the past few years, the reform movement 

seems to have weakened, thereby also reducing the likelihood of such 

outcomes. Still, some Israeli officials place primary emphasis on regime 

change, but this hope is not seen as a likely scenario in the foreseeable future. In addition, the available evidence indicates a broad Iranian national 

consensus, including reformists, in favor of pursuing nuclear weapons as 

a “national right.”

Given these obstacles to halting the Iranian nuclear weapons 

program, increasing Israeli attention and resources are being focused on 

dealing with this potential outcome. In close consultation with the U.S. 

Government and with major American assistance, missile defense programs and testing have been accelerated, and new technology, including 

extended range ballistic missile defense (BMD) and boost phase intercept 

(BPI) concepts, is under discussion.

In addition, some Israelis have begun to examine potential deterrence options vis-à-vis a nuclear Iran. Since the 1948 war, deterrence has 

been a major component of security policy, and it is widely credited with 

providing a degree of stability in relations with Syria, persuading Saddam Husayn not to risk the use of chemically armed missiles during the 

1991 war, and in many other situations.3 Perhaps the Iranian government, 

including its current radical regime, and, more importantly, under a postIslamic leadership, would understand the requirements of stable mutual 

deterrence. And perhaps a multipolar regional system of deterrence could 

evolve, in which Israel’s legitimacy would no longer be challenged and 

its survival would not be threatened. At some point, the optimists in this 

group noted, regional arms control and cooperative security discussions 

might resume, this time including Iran, Syria, and post-Saddam Iraq.

Each of these approaches is inherently complex and risky, and this 

is reflected in the continuing emphasis on the need for halting Iran’s nuclear 

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74 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

weapons acquisition efforts to date. Jerusalem, like Washington, is grappling 

with the rapidly closing window within which Iran might be stopped short 

of the finish line. Hopes that the political leadership of the IAEA would 

suddenly acknowledge the overwhelming evidence of cheating, which the 

agency’s own reports show began almost two decades ago,4 and declare Iran 

to be in noncompliance appear to be declining (if such hopes were ever realistic), and the time remaining for the imposition of sanctions to prevent 

the production of enriched uranium is fading. The European troika’s difficulty in changing Iran’s objectives speaks for itself, although this process 

seems to have slowed the pace of uranium enrichment during the past year 

and may be able to extend the timeframe further for a diplomatic solution.5 

With some time, some American scholars argue, American involvement 

in the application of carrots and sticks can halt Iran’s nuclear efforts before 

they are completed. “By promising strong rewards for compliance and 

severe penalties for defiance, Washington can strengthen the pragmatists’ 

case that Tehran should choose butter over bombs.”6

 But the obstacles are 

formidable, and in this framework, military action also cannot be ruled out, 

even though the obstacles and risks are formidable.

On this basis, it would be prudent to consider alternative scenarios in which Iran achieves a nuclear weapons capability, either overtly 

or similar to the Israeli policy of nuclear ambiguity. Furthermore, given 

regional dynamics and national (or regime) security perspectives, the 

proliferation of similar capabilities around the region within a decade 

must also be considered likely and should be addressed. While not the 

preferred outcome, from the Israeli perspective, “thinking about the unthinkable” is an important exercise in planning for the future.

Threat Perceptions

Iran’s drive for nuclear weapons began under the shah and has 

numerous explanations, including regional power ambitions, the sense of 

vulnerability in a hostile Arab- and Sunni-dominated region, and a history of warfare, including the Iraqi invasion and 8-year-long war during 

the 1980s. In addition, the survival of the regime is under threat, both 

from internal pressure and from the U.S. Government. Weapons of mass 

destruction (WMD) are seen as a form of insurance policy.7

But all of these factors notwithstanding, from the Israeli perspective the impact of Iranian nuclear weapons on its own security is understandably paramount. While Iran is not a confrontation state bordering 

Israel, and there is no history of direct military clashes, its extreme Islamic 

ideology, declarations of extreme hostility, rejection of the very concept of 
Jewish sovereignty, and support for terrorist groups such as Hizballah and 

Hamas are seen as posing an existential threat to Israel. Indeed, while threat 

levels posed by Syria, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq have declined, and after Palestinian terror attacks have shown a major decrease, Iran has emerged as the 

major strategic threat to Israel. In the terminology of international relations 

theory, Iran is a revisionist state, uninterested in preserving the status quo, 

but rather seeking to expand and use its capabilities to alter the international and regional political framework.

As noted, the Iranian regime is obsessed by Israel, reflecting an 

extreme Islamic ideology, the standard exploitation of anti-Israel policies to gain power in the regional environment (used earlier by Nasser, 

Assad, and others), and the effort to divert domestic political unrest away 

from hostility to the restrictions and failures of the Islamic regime. In 

December 2001, then-President Hashemi Rafsanjani called the establishment of the Jewish state the “worst event in history” and declared, “In due 

time the Islamic world will have a military nuclear device, and then the 

strategy of the West would reach a dead end, since one bomb is enough to 

destroy all Israel.” Similarly, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei 

declared “that the cancerous tumor called Israel must be uprooted from 

the region.”8

This obsession is often translated from the rhetoric of hatred and 

threats of destruction (including highly anti-Semitic programs on Iranian 

television) into actions, such as providing shiploads of missiles, explosives, and weapons to Palestinian terror groups (as in the case of the Karine-A, Santorini, and other arms ships captured en route to Gaza by the 

Israel Defense Forces [IDF]). Reports in the Israeli press and from Israeli 

security officials increasingly present evidence of Iranian financing, planning, training, intelligence, and other involvement in suicide bombing 

and other terror attacks by groups such as Hamas, the al Aqsa brigades, 

and Islamic Jihad.

Iran, in cooperation with Syria, is also the major supporter of 

Hizballah’s attacks from southern Lebanon, and constitutes a local extension of Iranian power up to the Israeli border and inside Israeli territory. 

For many years, Hizballah led the attacks against Israeli towns, and, since 

the Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000, this group has continued to launch periodic limited attacks across the border. Israeli security 

officials report that in the last 4 years, Hizballah has deployed over 10,000 

tactical missiles (according to some sources, the number has reached 

13,000, including the Iranian-made Fajr-5, with a range of 75 kilometers), 

many of which are capable of reaching cities and industrial centers in a 

 APPENDIX C 75
76 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

significant part of the country. This strategic deployment provides an umbrella for periodic attacks on the Israeli side of the border and a deterrent 

against Israeli escalation in response. It is also the model for Palestinian 

groups operating in Gaza, which have been firing missiles at Israeli towns 

on the other side of the separation fence, with direct participation, assistance, and involvement as acknowledged by Lebanese Hizballah leader 

Hassan Nasrallah. This confrontation is inherently unstable, and at some 

point, Hizballah’s salami tactics are likely to trigger a rapid escalation into 

a full-scale confrontation.

In addition, Hizballah, aided directly by Iranian officials, is 

viewed by Israel and others as being responsible for the terror blasts in 

Buenos Aires, Argentina, that destroyed the Israeli embassy and the Jewish community building in 1992 and 1994, killing dozens of people. And 

in the realm of religious and propaganda warfare, Hizballah (via its Al 

Manr satellite television broadcasts) has emerged as one of the most virulent sources of incitement and anti-Semitism.9

The Iranian effort to acquire nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles with ranges capable of reaching Israel (and far beyond) cannot 

be separated from its support for terrorist groups and the deep-seated 

animosity of the regime toward Israel. Missiles on parade in Tehran are 

decorated with slogans such as “Wipe Israel off the map,” and Israel is referred to as “the Zionist entity,” reminiscent of the rejectionist slogans of 

the Arab governments and Palestine Liberation Organization leadership 

in earlier decades. Iran’s direct role in Hizballah and Hamas terror attacks 

is an ongoing reflection of these objectives.

This combination of religious hatred, the perceived domestic 

political importance of this cause for an increasingly unpopular regime, 

and the growing strategic capabilities creates a framework for escalating 

violence and confrontation with Israel.

Response Options

Since the United Nations partition resolution of November 29, 

1947, which triggered a campaign of terrorism followed in May 1948 by 

the Arab invasion, Israel has been a country under siege. Given its minuscule territory and consequent lack of strategic depth, small population, 

and limited resources, Israel has given the highest priority to security and 

strategic issues. The nature of the warfare has changed as specific threats 

have evolved. 

These responses have taken different forms, including preventive and preemptive attacks (the 1967 war and the Osiraq operation), 
investment in defensive systems, seizure of territory (the Judea and 

Samaria regions of the West Bank, southern Lebanon), and deterrence 

through “disproportionate response.” The support, assistance, and coordination with the United States have generally served as force multipliers, increasing the capabilities, range, and firepower of the IDF and the 

impact of deterrence threats and Arab perceptions.

In addition, the U.S. assurances have, in some cases, allowed 

Israel to take some risks—including the withdrawal from Sinai after the 

1956 Suez war, the 1970 cease-fire with Egypt that ended the war of attrition, disengagement agreements with Egypt and Syria after the 1973 war, 

the Oslo framework and (failed) experiment with Palestinian autonomy, 

and the withdrawal from Lebanon. These risks have also contributed to 

escalation and high costs for Israel, but, over time, they have also brought 

some stability and a modicum of (cold) peace in the case of Egypt and 

Jordan and, informally and on a limited basis, with Syria. Thus, these 

strategies are likely to be applied to the developing Iranian threat, as 

deemed appropriate.

Defense Options: The Arrow, the Wall, and BPI

In the late 1980s, the proliferation of ballistic missiles in the region, as highlighted in the Iran-Iraq “war of the cities,” coupled with the 

threat of WMD warheads, led Israeli defense planners to begin development of strategic missile defense systems. For this purpose, Israel can be 

considered to be a cluster of point targets, in sharp contrast to area BMD

concepts and requirements, making the technical obstacles more manageable. This resulted in the “Wall” (Homa) BMD program, which included 

the design, development, testing, and deployment of the Arrow interceptor, along with advanced detection, early warning, and terminal targeting 

systems. A significant portion of the research and development costs were 

financed with U.S. Government assistance, and the level of cooperation in 

this area remains high.

During the 2004 Iraq war, a number of advanced Arrow BMD

batteries were deployed and operational, along with U.S. Patriot PAC–2 

interceptors. Since then, and in response to the Iranian testing of its Shahab-3 ballistic missile, the Arrow and its accompanying components continue to be improved and tested.

The logic of the Israeli strategic missile defense program goes beyond providing a defense against WMD warheads. It is designed to influence the strategic calculations of potential attackers, such as Iran. Given 

that Iran’s arsenal of offensive missiles and nuclear warheads will be 

 APPENDIX C 77
78 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

limited, the combination of reduced probability of penetration and ensured massive destruction in response (discussed in the section on deterrence below) are seen as making the risks of a first strike extremely high.

At the same time, Israeli officials and analysts are also aware of 

the limitations of BMD, including the unfavorable cost-exchange ratio 

and the availability of delivery systems other than ballistic missiles. Thus, 

while this approach is important in countering the expected Iranian 

threat, it is not the only or the central element in Israeli strategy.

Building Stable Bilateral Deterrence: Israel-Iran

Faced with continuing threats to national survival, Israel has 

always placed primary emphasis on maintaining a credible and robust 

deterrence capability. The deep structural asymmetries in the region (territorial extent, demography, and so forth) make Israel appear to be vulnerable to a crippling first strike, and the capability to inflict overwhelming and disproportionate retaliation regardless of the extent of the initial 

attack has been a central feature in deterring attack. This is the case with 

respect to conventional warfare (based on overwhelming air superiority 

and highly mobile ground forces), as well as providing the foundation for 

the development of the Dimona nuclear complex, Jericho ballistic missile 

technology, and the policy of “deliberate ambiguity.”

In the conventional sphere, the record has been mixed. In the 

1973 war, Egypt and Syria were not deterred by what Israeli leaders 

viewed as overwhelming superiority. But this was the last of the major attacks by the Arab “confrontation states,” and the response was sufficient 

to lead Anwar Sadat to end the cycle of wars and become the first Arab 

leader to recognize the legitimacy of Israel. With respect to low-level warfare and terror campaigns, the weakening of Israeli deterrence during the 

1990s is widely seen to have contributed significantly to Arafat’s strategy 

and the decision to use violence to achieve Palestinian objectives. Thus, 

one of the major goals in the Israeli response was to reestablish the deterrence image, not only in the eyes of the Palestinians, but also throughout 

the region.

In addition, polls and other evidence demonstrate that Israelis 

from across the political spectrum view the ambiguous nuclear deterrence policy and the weapon of last resort as successful in preventing 

additional wars and limiting the level of attacks during the wars that did 

occur. For example, according to the available evidence (including statements by Egyptian war planners), Cairo opted for a deliberately limited 

strategy in the 1973 war to avoid triggering an Israeli strategic response. 
In 1991, the decision by Saddam Husayn not to use chemical or biological warheads in the missile attacks on Israel is also attributed to fear of 

overwhelming Israeli retaliation. Furthermore, Shimon Peres and others claim that Israel’s nuclear capability and the realization that Israel 

could not be “wiped off the map” without massive retaliation throughout 

the Middle East were primary factors in initiating peace processes with 

Egypt, Jordan, and beyond.10

However, the development of an Iranian nuclear capability and a 

multipolar nuclear environment would end the Israeli nuclear monopoly 

and fundamentally change the calculus of strategic deterrence in all major 

dimensions. In terms of capabilities and maintaining an assured secondstrike capability, Israeli planners are well aware of the need to reduce 

vulnerability by dispersing and hardening retaliatory systems. Given the 

small size of Israel’s territory, reliance on land-based ballistic missiles and 

the ability to scramble long-range aircraft is understood to be problematic, and additional options are necessary. International press reports have 

claimed that the diesel-powered submarines that were built in Germany 

and delivered in recent years provide the foundation for a sea-based strategic retaliatory force, including cruise missiles. In all likelihood, such a 

force would not replace the aircraft and land-based missile components, 

but would provide an additional “insurance policy.” 

In the context of a multipolar nuclear Middle East and the need 

for a credible second-strike capability, maintenance of Israel’s policy of 

deliberate ambiguity would become increasingly difficult. In terms of 

capabilities, the movements of a submarine force, and the dispersal of aircraft and ballistic missiles in hardened structures, would be more visible 

than the current requirements. Smaller and more advanced warheads required for these advanced delivery systems may also need testing, thereby 

changing the Israeli policy in a fundamental manner.

Credibility and communications are also central components of 

stable deterrence, and a more overt and visible nuclear weapons capability 

may be seen as necessary to avoid Iranian (and wider regional) misperceptions, particularly given the isolation of decisionmakers in Iran. An Israeli 

decision to disclose its nuclear capabilities or to test a weapon (or longrange ballistic missile) in public might be viewed as necessary to highlight 

the ability to inflict massive destruction in response to a first strike.

However, the isolation of Iran’s leaders, the fog that surrounds 

its decisionmaking structures, the absence of direct channels of communication with Israel, and its radical faith-based revisionist objectives will 

make the development of stable deterrence extremely difficult. While 

 APPENDIX C 79
80 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

the Iranian leadership is not seen as suicidal or particularly prone to 

high-stakes risk taking (in contrast to Saddam Husayn and other Arab 

leaders), there are likely to be many misperceptions regarding Israeli 

intentions and redlines. And, with many potential triggers for crises and 

escalation between Tehran and Jerusalem, including Hizballah, Hamas, 

and extremist elements within Iran, the difficulties in managing these 

crises in a nuclear environment will pose formidable challenges.

To diminish these dangers, Iranian leaders will have to renounce 

their destabilizing revisionist and revolutionary objectives and develop 

links, including diplomatic relations, with Israel. During the Cold War, 

the 1962 Cuban missile crisis and management of ongoing strategic relations proved difficult enough, even with diplomatic ties and periodic 

summit meetings between U.S. and Soviet leaders. This is also true with 

respect to India and Pakistan, which came close to mutual destruction 

following their respective decisions to test nuclear weapons. The policy of 

boycotting the “Zionist entity” must be seen as particularly irresponsible 

and dangerous for a country armed with nuclear weapons and itself a target for massive retaliation. In addition, in order to develop a stable deterrence relationship, ties with destabilizing terrorist groups and extremists 

will need to be cut, for the survival of Iran itself, in this environment.

Toward a Stable Multipolar Deterrence Relationship

As argued here, an Iranian nuclear capability would trigger (or 

accelerate) regional proliferation, including Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia, 

Algeria, and elsewhere. Within a decade, the Middle East is likely to have 

five or more nuclear powers, making creation and management of a system of stable deterrence far more complex, particularly given the inherent 

instabilities, history of conflict, and deep hostilities. 

In this environment, the survival of these nations and the prevention of nuclear warfare will require measures to address the mutual fears 

of surprise attack, including direct communications, particularly in crisis 

situations. Those regimes in addition to Iran that continue to boycott Israel, such as Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Algeria, will also need to establish 

links and ensure that myths and misperceptions are replaced by realistic 

analysis. Command and control systems in these countries will be necessary to prevent access by extremist groups whose ideological or religious 

beliefs envision warfare and destruction on a massive scale.

This process will require the active intervention of outside powers, including the United States, Europe, Russia, and China. The relatively 

passive (and often low-priority) approach used during the multilateral 
arms control and regional security framework, created in the context of 

the 1991 Madrid conference, failed to produce significant results. While 

grand regional disarmament agreements are highly unrealistic in the existing political and strategic environment (as explained below), tangible 

limited measures to reduce instability and increase communications and 

coordination are possible and necessary. These should become high-priority objectives for the United States, with the cooperation (to the extent 

possible) of the other major powers.

A U.S.-Israel Defense Pact or NATO Membership?

The prospects of an Iranian nuclear weapons capability and wider 

regional proliferation have revived unofficial discussions of the costs and 

benefits of different formal security alliances, including a U.S.-Israeli 

defense treaty and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) membership. The previous discussions have noted the perceived advantages 

of an Israel-U.S. bilateral treaty, in terms of enhanced Israeli deterrence 

(assuming that the U.S. deterrence image is robust), easier access to advanced weapons, and a reduced economic burden from ongoing defense 

expenditures. These dimensions would be particularly significant in the 

cooperative development and operation of advanced missile defense systems, perhaps to include Turkey and NATO, as well as in aspects related 

to maintaining a credible second-strike deterrent vis-à-vis Iran and other 

potential adversaries.

In contrast, Israeli policymakers also note that after almost four 

decades of close security cooperation, a formal treaty may not provide 

much more in terms of deterrence or security assurances. It may also reduce Israeli freedom of action and have other costs, particularly if a less 

supportive U.S. Government is elected in the future.

The option of NATO membership is perhaps more symbolic and 

less tangible in terms of direct benefits, but the development of formal security links to both the United States and Europe may provide a useful alternative, at little cost for Israel. However, opposition to a formal alliance 

with Israel from France and other NATO members who maintain close 

relations with the Arab regimes would have to be overcome.

Messianic Visions: A Middle East Zone Free of WMD

One of the proposed means to prevent Iranian acquisition of 

nuclear weapons is a grand agreement that would include, in addition to 

resolution of U.S.-Iran issues, a tradeoff involving Israel’s nuclear deterrent option. The range of such proposals is quite wide, including some 

 APPENDIX C 81
82 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

that envision a freeze on the Israeli nuclear program and accession to 

the NPT as a nuclear weapons state (a scenario that is off the scale, even 

in the realm of highly unrealistic suggestions, as it would require opening up the NPT to amendment and requiring re-ratification by all of the 

signatories). At the other end of the scale, there is also discussion of Israel 

relinquishing its nuclear capability by joining the NPT and submitting to 

IAEA safeguards as a non–nuclear weapons state, or the development of a 

Middle East nuclear weapons–free zone.

As long as the Middle East conflict is unresolved and the threats to 

Israeli survival remain, none of the grand bargain concepts that expect Israel to give up its nuclear deterrent option in return for international guarantees with respect to Iran can be considered viable. As the cases of Iraq, 

North Korea, and now Iran clearly demonstrate, the ability of international 

mechanisms such as the IAEA to monitor effectively and assure compliance with nonproliferation treaties is far from adequate. Furthermore, the 

United States and the other members of the United Nations Security Council have shown that they will not take risks regarding their own interests by 

using force or even imposing effective sanctions to gain compliance. From 

the perspective of core Israeli security perceptions and requirements, these 

Kantian idealistic hopes are not credible options in a Hobbesian Middle 

East characterized by warfare and continuous terrorism, which are, in turn, 

fuelled by deep hostility and perceived threats to survival.

In the long term, however, and assuming that the region survives 

the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the potential for negotiation of a 

Middle East nuclear weapons–free zone is likely to increase. In contrast 

to the international and universal arms control framework—including 

the NPT, IAEA, and Chemical Weapons Convention, which have proven 

highly ineffective in the case of Iran, as well as Iraq and Libya—a system 

of mutual inspection based on a specially tailored verification regime, 

could, in theory, be successful.

In the process of learning to develop and manage a stable deterrence relationship, direct communication links will eventually be established. The populations of the respective players, including Iran, may go 

through a process similar to that of the United States and Soviet Union, 

as well as Europe during the Cold War, and demand measures that reduce 

the risks of mutual assured destruction. This process will be assisted by, 

and could also lead to, internal political changes, including democratization, in order to create more responsive and accountable governments 

(although, realistically, the politics of extremist nationalism and religious 

exclusivity will remain very powerful forces).
At the same time, the zero-sum frameworks that have dominated 

may develop into more cooperative situations, in which confidence- and 

security-building measures may evolve due not to pressures and inducements from the outside, but from the internal recognition of the elements 

necessary for national survival. 

Conclusion

For all of the reasons explained in this analysis, this process, if 

it happens, could take many years or decades, and during this period, 

avoidance of nuclear destruction will be tenuous, at best. For the current 

political and strategic horizon, the prevention of Middle East nuclear 

proliferation by focusing on halting the illicit Iranian acquisition of fissile material remains the best policy option for the United States, Israel, 

Europe, Russia, China, and for the region. If this process is unsuccessful, 

the measures required for a stable deterrence system would become central, and might encompass a formal Israeli-U.S. defense treaty or Israeli 

membership in NATO. Other regional steps, such as mutual recognition 

and reliable communications, would be necessary in order to manage the 

relationship and prevent nuclear destruction. In parallel, consideration 

of confidence- and security-building measures and efforts to develop a 

nuclear weapons–free zone should also be on the agenda, within a realistic framework if they are to be effective. At the same time, proposals that 

lack credibility and are based on amorphous and unreliable “international 

guarantees”—such as those that have failed to prevent Iran, Iraq, Libya, 

and other countries from violating their NPT commitments and that will 

endanger Israel’s survival—are counterproductive and unrealistic.

Notes

Professor Gerald Steinberg is director of the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation, Bar-Ilan University at, Ramat Gan, Israel, and Fellow, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. This 

paper was prepared for a workshop held at the National Defense University on January 26, 2005. 

 1 Ha’aretz, June 9, 1981, cited in Shai Feldman, “The Bombing of Osiraq Revisited,” International Security 7 (Fall 1982), 114–143, and Gerald Steinberg, “The Begin Doctrine and Deterrence,” 

in Israel in the Middle East—The Legacy of Menachem Begin, BESA Center for Strategic Studies, BESA

Colloquia on Strategy and Diplomacy No. 15, September 2000. 2 Ariel Sharon, quoted in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, December 18, 1981, 1–17. 3 Gerald Steinberg, “Parameters of Stable Deterrence in a Proliferated Middle East: Lessons 

from the 1991 Gulf War,” Nonproliferation Review 7, no. 3 (Fall/Winter 2000). 4 Links to the relevant IAEA documents are available at <www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/

IaeaIran/index.shtml>. 5 The troika referred to is the so-called EU–3 of the European Union—Great Britain, France, 

and Germany—who have been negotiating with Iran on nuclear issues.

 APPENDIX C 83
84 Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran

6

 Kenneth M. Pollack and Ray Takeyh, “Taking on Tehran,” Foreign Affairs 84, no. 2 (March/

April 2005). 7

 Kori N. Schake and Judith S. Yaphe, The Strategic Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran, McNair Paper 64 (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2001), 1–15. 8

 “Former Iranian President Rafsanjani on Using a Nuclear Bomb Against Israel,” Middle East 

Media Research Institute Special Dispatch 325, January 3, 2002, available at <www.memri.org/bin/articles.cgi?Area=iran&ID=SP32502>; “Iran Leader Urges Destruction of ‘Cancerous’ Israel,” Reuters, 

December 15, 2002, available at <http://archives.cnn.com/2000/WORLD/meast/12/15/mideast.iran.

reut/>. 9 Avi Jorisch, Beacon of Hatred: Inside Hizballah’s al-Manr Television (Washington, DC: Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 2004). 10 Cited in Ariel Levite and Emily Landau, Israel’s Nuclear Image: Arab Perceptions of Israel’s

Nuclear Posture (Tel Aviv: Tel Aviv University Press, 1994), 66–67.
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http://www.ndu.edu/inss/press/nduphp.html
Reassessing the 

Implications of a 

Nuclear-Armed Iran

Can the United States live with 

a nuclear-armed Iran? Despite 

strong policy preferences to the 

contrary, Washington may have 

little choice.

Evidence suggests, and most 

scholars agree, that Iran is working toward self-sufficiency in 

a complete nuclear fuel cycle 

that would enable it to produce 

nuclear weapons. Building on 

an earlier study from 2001, 

Dr. Judith Yaphe and Colonel 

Charles Lutes reexamine Iran’s 

movement toward becoming a 

nuclear-weapons state and the 

implications of that development 

for stability in the Middle East, 

global nonproliferation efforts, 

and U.S. security and defense 

policy. The original study postulated that Iran was determined 

to acquire nuclear weapons and 

the long-range missile systems 

needed for their delivery, and, 

in fact, was well on its way to 

achieving those objectives. Four 

years later, the world is a different place: the terrorist attacks 

of September 11, U.S. intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq with 

their subsequent developing 

democracies, and new evidence 

of Iranian acquisition of nuclear 

weapons-related technologies all 

necessitate a reexamination of a 

nuclear-armed Iran. 

Recent titles 

in the McNair 

Paper series:

68

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Agricultural Bioterrorism: 

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the Threat

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The Strategic Implications 

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