APPENDIX C 

Air Quality Model Performance Evaluation: 

Evaluation at VISTAS and Nearby Class I Areas 
 C-1 

C.1 OVERVIEW 

The discussion of model performance in this Appendix focuses on the comparison of 

observational data from the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments 

(IMPROVE) monitors and model output data from the 2002 VISTAS BaseG2 Actual annual air 

quality modeling. The evaluation will primarily focus on the air quality model’s performance 

with respect to individual components of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), as good model 

performance of the component species will dictate good model performance of total or 

reconstituted fine particulate matter from which visibility is constructed. Model performance of 

the total fine particulate matter and the resulting total light extinction will also be provided as a 

means to discuss the overall model performance for this Implementation Plan. 

C.1.1 IMPROVE Monitoring Sites 

There are eighteen (18) Class I areas within the VISTAS States (VISTAS region) as shown in 

Figure C-1. There are also several Class I areas adjacent to the VISTAS region where we also 

project future-year visibility conditions. Figure C-2 displays the IMPROVE monitoring sites 

within and nearby the VISTAS region. The 18 VISTAS Class I areas and nearby Class I areas 

where the CMAQ Base G2 modeling results are evaluated in this Appendix are as follows: 

VISTAS Class I Areas

• Sipsey Wilderness Area (SIPS), Alabama 

• Chassahowitzka Wildlife Refuge (CHAS), Florida 

• Everglades National Park (EVER), Florida 

• St. Marks Wildlife Refuge (SAMA), Florida 

• Cohutta Wilderness Area (COHU), Georgia 

• Wolf Island Wildlife Refuge (WOIS), Georgia 

• Okefenokee Wildlife Refuge (OKEF), Georgia 

• Mammoth Cave National Park (MACA), Kentucky 

• Linville Gorge Wilderness Area (LIGO), North Carolina 

• Shining Rock Wilderness Area (SHRO), North Carolina 

• Swanquarter Wildlife Refuge (SWAN), North Carolina 

• Joyce Kilmer-Slickrock Wilderness Area (JKSR), North Carolina 

• Cape Romain Wildlife Refuge (ROMA), South Carolina 

• Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina 

• James River Face Wilderness Area (JARI), Virginia 

• Shenandoah National Park (SHEN), Virginia 

• Dolly Sods Wilderness Area (DOSO), West Virginia 

• Otter Creek Wilderness Area (OTCR), West Virginia 
 C-2 

Nearby Class I Areas

• Breton Island Wildlife Refuge (BRET), Louisiana 

• Caney Creek Wilderness Area (CACR), Arkansas 

• Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area (UPBU), Arkansas 

• Mingo Wildlife Refuge (MING), Missouri 

• Hercules Glade Wilderness Area (HEGL), Missouri 

• Brigantine Wildlife Refuge (BRIG), New Jersey 

Note that not all Class I areas have their own IMPROVE monitor. The Wolf Island Class I area 

shares the Okefenokee IMPROVE monitor in Georgia and in West Virginia, the Otter Creek 

Class I area shares the Dolly Sods IMPROVE monitor and the Joyce Kilmer-Slickrock Class I 

area shares the IPROVE monitor at Great Smokey Mountains National Park. So when 

presenting model performance evaluation and visibility projections for Okefenokee, Dolly Sods 

and Great Smokey Mountains IMPROVE monitors they are also represented of, respectively, 

Wolf Island, Otter Creek and Joyce Kilmer-Slickrock Class I areas, respectively. Also note that 

there are some IMPROVE sites not located in Class I areas. Although data at these sites are used 

in the regional evaluation discussed in Appendix B, the performance at the individual IMPROVE 

monitors not located at a Class I area are not discussed in this section. For the VISTAS region, 

the Cadiz (CADI) site is one such IMPROVE monitor. 
 C-3 

Figure C-1. Class I areas within the VISTAS region. 
 C-4 

250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000

-1500

-1250

-1000

-750

-500

-250

0

250

500

EVER1

CHAS1

BRET1

SAMA1

OKEF1 SIKE1

ROMA1 SIPS1 CACR1

COHU1

SHRO1

SWAN1

GRSM1

UPBU1

LIGO1

HEGL1

MING1 CADI1

MACA1

JARI1 JEFF1

ELDO1

SHEN1

LIVO1

WASH1 DOSO1

BRIG1 AREN1

QUCI1

BOND1

LASU1

MKGO1

MOMO1

ADPI1

COHI1

GRRI1

Figure C-2. IMPROVE monitoring sites within and near the VISTAS region. 

C.1.2 Particulate Matter and Component Species 

Regional haze is calculated by estimating light scattering and absorption by components of 

PM2.5. Regional haze is measured by an extinction coefficient (bext), which represents the light 

attenuation resulting from scattering and absorption of light from ambient particulate matter plus 

scattering of light due to gas molecules in the air (i.e., Rayleigh scattering). 

Some scattering does occur from air molecules; however, the bulk of light extinction is caused 

by the presence of suspended particles, particularly fine particles (aerodynamic mass <2.5 μm). 

Fine particulate matter can be composed of varying amounts of several different species, 

including: 

• Sulfates 

• Nitrates 

• Ammonium 

• Organic carbon (OC) 
 C-5 

• Elemental carbon (EC) 

• Coarse particulate matter (i.e., PM10 - PM2.5) 

• Soil (also known as crustal material, fine soil, major metal oxides, inorganic particulates, 

or other PM) 

• Sea Salt (NaCl) [new IMPROVE equation] 

The composition of particulate matter can vary from day-to-day, allowing a day with a large 

concentration of sulfates to be closely followed by a day dominated by organic carbon. This is 

an important fact as some of the components of fine particulate matter are more effective at light 

scattering than others. Since there can be such a large variability in the concentrations of the 

component species, the model will actually be evaluated on a per species basis, followed by a an 

evaluation of total reconstructed fine particle mass. This is also a more stringent test of the 

model, as simply looking at particle pollution performance may provide good results, even 

though the underlying constituent concentrations are incorrect. Only a brief overview of total 

fine particles after component evaluation is necessary, since the accuracy of the model in 

predicting the component species will dictate the accuracy of the total fine particulate mass 

prediction. 

C.1.3 20% Best and Worst Days 

Projections of light extinction for the evaluation of regional haze are based on a subset of days 

for which there is monitored data. IMPROVE monitors collect 24-hour PM samples every third 

day. Observations of component species on these days are used to calculate light extinction, 

which is the basis on which these days are ranked. These rankings are then used to identify the 

20% most impaired days, or “worst days”, and the 20% least impaired days, or “best days”, for 

use in visibility projections. Table C-1 lists of the 20% best and worst days for all of Class I 

areas within and nearby of the VISTAS region. . 

Since the ultimate future year projections are based on these 20% best and worst days, the 

following performance evaluation of the model has mainly focused on the best and worst days 

for VISTAS and nearby Class I areas. 
Date 

Julian 

Day SIPS CHAS EVER SAMA COHU OKEF MACA LIGO SHRO SWAN ROMA GRSM JARI SHEN DOSO BRET 

01/05/02 5 W W B B W B B 01/08/02 8 B B B B B 01/11/02 11 B B B B B B B 01/14/02 14 B B B B B B B B B 01/17/02 17 W W W 01/20/02 20 B B B 01/23/02 23 B B W B B B B B B B 01/26/02 26 B W B B B B B B B 01/29/02 29 B W 02/01/02 32 B B B B B B B 02/04/02 35 W W B B 02/07/02 38 B B B B B B B B B 02/10/02 41 W 02/13/02 44 W W W B W B W B W 02/16/02 47 W W W W 02/19/02 50 B B B B 02/22/02 53 W W 02/25/02 56 W W W W W W W 02/28/02 59 B B B B W 03/03/02 62 W B B B B B B B 03/06/02 65 B 03/09/02 68 B B B B B B B B B B B 03/12/02 71 B B B 03/15/02 74 W W 03/18/02 77 B B B B B 03/21/02 80 W B B B 03/24/02 83 B 03/27/02 86 W B 03/30/02 89 B W W B W B B B B B 04/02/02 92 B 04/05/02 95 W W W 04/08/02 98 W W 04/11/02 101 B B 04/14/02 104 B B B B B B B B B 04/17/02 107 W B 04/20/02 110 W W 
Date 

Julian 

Day SIPS CHAS EVER SAMA COHU OKEF MACA LIGO SHRO SWAN ROMA GRSM JARI SHEN DOSO BRET 

04/23/02 113 B W B B B 04/26/02 116 B W W B B B B B 04/29/02 119 B B W B 05/02/02 122 W W W W W W W W W 05/05/02 125 W W B B W 05/08/02 128 W W W W W W W W W 05/11/02 131 W W 05/14/02 134 B B 05/17/02 137 B W W W W W 05/20/02 140 B 05/23/02 143 W W 05/26/02 146 B W W W W 05/29/02 149 W W W W B 06/01/02 152 W W W W W W W W W 06/04/02 155 W W W W W W W W W W W 06/07/02 158 W B W B B B B 06/10/02 161 W B B W B W W W 06/13/02 164 B B W W W W 06/16/02 167 B 06/19/02 170 B B W W W B W W W B 06/22/02 173 B B B B W B B W W 06/25/02 176 B B B B B B B W W B 06/28/02 179 B B B W 07/01/02 182 B W W W W W W 07/04/02 185 W W W W W W W W W 07/07/02 188 W W W W W W W W 07/10/02 191 W B B W B W W W B W W W B 07/13/02 194 B B B B W 07/16/02 197 W W W W W W W W W W W 07/19/02 200 W W W W W W W W 07/22/02 203 B W W W W W W 07/25/02 206 W B B W W W W W B W W 07/28/02 209 B W W B 07/31/02 212 B B W W W W W W W W 08/03/02 215 W W W W W W W W W 08/06/02 218 W W B W W W W W W W 
Date 

Julian 

Day SIPS CHAS EVER SAMA COHU OKEF MACA LIGO SHRO SWAN ROMA GRSM JARI SHEN DOSO BRET 

08/09/02 221 W W W W B W B 08/12/02 224 W B B W W W W W W W W 08/15/02 227 B W B B B W W B 08/18/02 230 B 08/21/02 233 W W W W W W W W B 08/24/02 236 W W W W W W W W W B 08/27/02 239 B B B W W W W W 08/30/02 242 B B B B B 09/02/02 245 B W B B B B 09/05/02 248 B B W W W B W W 09/08/02 251 W B W W W W B W W 09/11/02 254 W B W W W W W W W W W W W 09/14/02 257 B W B B B W B W W W W 09/17/02 260 W W W W W W W W W W W W W W 09/20/02 263 W W W W B B W W W 09/23/02 266 B B W B B W B W 09/26/02 269 B B B B B B B 09/29/02 272 W W W W 10/02/02 275 B W W W 10/05/02 278 W B W 10/08/02 281 W W W W B W 10/11/02 284 W B B B B B B W 10/14/02 287 B B W 10/17/02 290 W W W B 10/20/02 293 W W W B 10/23/02 296 W W B W W W 10/26/02 299 B B W B B B B 10/29/02 302 B B B B B B B B B B 11/01/02 305 W W 11/04/02 308 B B W B B B B 11/07/02 311 W W 11/10/02 314 B 11/13/02 317 11/16/02 320 B B B B B B B B 11/19/02 323 B 11/22/02 326 B B W B B B 
Date 

Julian 

Day SIPS CHAS EVER SAMA COHU OKEF MACA LIGO SHRO SWAN ROMA GRSM JARI SHEN DOSO BRET 

11/25/02 329 W W 11/28/02 332 W W B B 12/01/02 335 B B B B B 12/04/02 338 W W B B B 12/07/02 341 W W W W B W W B B W W B B B 12/10/02 344 B B B B B B 12/13/02 347 B B B B B B B B B B 12/16/02 350 W W W 12/19/02 353 B B B 12/22/02 356 B B B B B B B B B B B 12/25/02 359 B B B B B B B B B 12/28/02 362 B W B B 

12/31/02* 365 B B B B 
 C-10 

C.2 Model Performance Statistics 

To quantify model performance, several statistical measures were calculated and evaluated for 

all the IMPROVE monitors within the VISTAS 12 km domain and individually for each 

IMPROVE monitor associated with a VISTAS or nearby Class I areas. The statistical measures 

selected were based on the recommendations outlined in section 18.4.1 of the USEPA’s 

Guidance On The Use Of Models And Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of Air 

Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze (EPA, 2007a). 

In 2004, VISTAS established model performance goals and criteria for components of fine 

particle mass (Table C-2) based on previous model performance for ozone and fine particles. 

EPA modeling guidance for fine particulate matter at the time noted that PM models might not 

be able to achieve the same level of performance as ozone models. VISTAS’ evaluation 

considered several statistical performance measures and displays. 

Table C-2. Model performance goals and criteria for components of fine particle mass. 

Fractional Bias Fractional Error Comment 

<15% <35% Goal for PM model performance based on ozone model 

performance, considered excellent performance 

<30% <50% Goal for PM model performance, considered good 

performance 

<60% <75% Criteria for PM model performance, considered average 

performance. Exceeding this level of performance 

indicates fundamental concerns with the modeling 

system and triggers diagnostic evaluation. 

The statistical measures were calculated for all of the component species of particulate matter 

responsible for light extinction, and for total light extinction. For convenience, these statistical 

measures or metrics, along with a variety of additional statistical measures, are summarized in 

Table C-3. 
 C-11 

Table C-3. Statistical metric calculations. 

Statistical Measure Shorthand 

Notation 

Mathematical Expression Notes 

Accuracy of Paired 

Peak 

Ap

peak

peak

O

P − O

Coefficient of 

Determination 

R2

( )( )

∑ ∑

∑

= =

=

− −

⎥

⎦

⎤ ⎢

⎣

⎡ − −

N

i

N

i

i i

N

i

i i

P P O O

P P O O

1 1

2 2

2

1

( ) ( )

Pi

= prediction at time and 

 location i; 

Oi = observation at time and 

 location i; 

P = arithmetic average of Pi, 

 i = 1, 2, . . ., N; 

O = arithmetic average of Oi, 

 i = 1, 2, . . ., N; 

Normalized Mean 

Error 

NME 

∑

∑

=

=

−

N

i

i

N

i

i i

O

P O

1

1

Reported as % 

Root Mean Square 

Error 

RMSE 

( ) 2

1

1

1 2

⎥

⎦

⎤ ⎢

⎣

⎡ ∑ − =

N

i

Pi Oi N

Reported as % 

Mean Fractional 

Error 

MFE 

∑= +

− N

i i i

i i

P O

P O

N 1

2 Reported as % 

Mean Absolute 

Gross Error 

MAGE ∑=

−

N

i

Pi Oi N 1

1

Mean Normalized 

Gross Error 

MNGE 

∑=

N −

i i

i i

O

P O

N 1

1 Reported as % 

Mean Biased MB ∑( ) =

−

N

i

Pi Oi N 1

1 Reported as concentration 

Mean Normalized 

Bias 

MNB ( ) ∑=

− N

i i

i i

O

P O

N 1

1 Reported as % 

Mean Fractionalized 

Bias (Fractional Bias) 

MFB 

∑= ⎟

⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜

⎜

⎝

⎛

+

− N

i i i

i i

P O

P O

N 1

2 Reported as % 

Normalized Mean 

Bias 

NMB ( )

∑

∑

=

=

−

N

i

i

N

i

i i

O

P O

1

1

Reported as % 

Bias Factor BF 

∑= ⎟

⎟

⎠

⎞

⎜

⎜

⎝

⎛ N

i i

i

O

P

N 1

1 Reported as BF:1 or 1:BF or in 

fractional notation (BF/1 or 1/BF) 
 C-12 

C.2.1 Statistical Tables 

The statistical data is calculated collectively for all of the IMPROVE monitors within the 

VISTAS 12 km domain, as well as individually for each of the IMPROVE monitors associated 

with a VISTAS Class I area along with the IMPROVE monitors associated with nearby Class I 

areas. These statistics have been calculated separately for the 20% Best days (Section C.2.1.1) 

and 20% Worst days (Section C.2.1.2). 

C.2.1.1 Model Performance Statistics for the 20% Best Days 

Table C-4 displays the model performance statistical measures for the Best 20 percent visibility 

days during 2002. Table C-4a contains statistical performance metrics for the Best 20 percent 

days across all IMPROVE monitors in the VISTAS 12 km domain, whereas the remainder of the 

tables contain statistics for each individual IMPROVE monitor associated with a Class I area 

within and near the VISTAS region. 

C.2.1.2 Model Performance Statistics for the 20% Worst Days 

Statistical performance measures for the Worst 20 percent days in 2002 and the CMAQ Base G2 

12 km base case are shown in Table C-5. 

Table C-4a. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days across Class I areas in the 12 

km VISTAS grid. 

12km bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -115.20 -110.06 -25.88 -27.46 78.49 148.33 -81.50 -81.14

MFE (%) 122.49 132.75 57.01 55.29 114.38 184.31 104.25 88.50

Ap 2.48 1.09 2.16 1.54 1.73 4.23 -0.18 1.85

NMB (%) -61.28 -39.82 -3.89 -12.78 213.72 551.54 -62.01 -47.74

NME (%) 75.88 86.49 55.78 52.03 266.13 711.04 70.48 59.48

MNB (%) -61.79 -40.68 0.75 8.92 682.14 2051.72 -38.65 -48.42

MNE (%) 77.67 91.64 58.34 68.09 704.19 2147.79 78.76 60.38

MB (μg/m3) -9.52 -1.77 -0.18 -0.25 0.63 2.88 -1.34 -19.42

MAGE (μg/m3) 11.79 3.84 2.64 1.02 0.78 3.71 1.52 24.20

RMSE (μg/m3) 14.76 6.23 5.04 1.97 1.18 7.45 2.07 27.92

Obs Max (μg/m3) 41.57 30.49 21.39 9.96 2.95 15.38 9.86 65.36

Pred Max (μg/m3) 144.46 63.78 67.55 25.33 8.05 80.50 8.10 186.22

Mean_Obs 15.54 4.44 4.74 1.95 0.29 0.52 2.15 40.69

Mean_Pred 6.02 2.68 4.55 1.70 0.92 3.40 0.82 21.27

Std_Dev_Obs 7.06 3.93 2.50 1.09 0.32 1.78 1.68 10.12

Std_Dev_Pre 10.74 6.01 5.33 1.91 0.97 6.47 0.92 20.63

Variance 217.83 38.82 25.35 3.88 1.40 55.56 4.29 779.65

R2 0.06 0.11 0.12 0.06 0.00 0.01 0.14 0.09

BF 0.38 0.59 1.01 1.08 7.82 4.57 0.60 0.52

N 490 490 490 490 490 490 490 490
 C-13 

Table C-4b. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Breton Island Class I 

area.

BRET bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -152.90 -179.64 -82.67 -69.08 14.14 27.20 -80.87 -139.99

MFE (%) 152.90 181.21 83.72 69.19 126.36 166.60 91.94 139.99

Ap -0.74 -0.69 -0.54 -0.46 -0.25 -0.47 -0.46 -0.66

NMB (%) -86.23 -94.40 -54.53 -50.86 -14.55 -47.92 -56.39 -81.07

NME (%) 86.23 95.50 55.38 50.96 132.14 111.15 59.69 81.07

MNB (%) -85.67 -90.70 -53.78 -48.24 454.91 -71.19 -41.48 -81.47

MNE (%) 85.67 92.44 54.89 48.36 519.05 76.78 71.91 81.47

MB (μg/m3) -15.48 -2.76 -1.40 -0.81 -0.05 -0.39 -1.98 -32.99

MAGE (μg/m3) 15.48 2.80 1.43 0.82 0.43 0.90 2.10 32.99

RMSE (μg/m3) 16.76 3.21 1.79 1.04 0.57 1.25 2.40 33.48

Obs Max (μg/m3) 28.83 7.28 6.17 2.75 1.61 3.81 7.45 48.75

Pred Max (μg/m3) 7.43 2.23 2.86 1.48 1.21 2.03 4.00 16.64

Mean_Obs 17.95 2.93 2.57 1.60 0.33 0.81 3.51 40.69

Mean_Pred 2.47 0.16 1.17 0.79 0.28 0.42 1.53 7.70

Std_Dev_Obs 7.00 1.50 1.40 0.76 0.41 1.00 1.66 6.09

Std_Dev_Pre 2.24 0.49 0.90 0.46 0.31 0.51 1.06 4.97

Variance 280.94 10.28 3.21 1.08 0.32 1.57 5.76 1120.72

R2 0.12 0.04 0.34 0.25 0.08 0.05 0.31 0.22

BF 0.14 0.09 0.46 0.52 5.55 0.15 0.59 0.19

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-4c. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Brigantine Class I 

area.

BRIG bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -118.49 -85.82 1.36 36.59 68.09 88.47 -126.19 -75.43

MFE (%) 126.68 116.82 57.68 75.89 107.44 176.33 126.19 94.46

Ap 0.14 0.09 7.20 4.77 2.48 -0.61 -0.70 1.14

NMB (%) -66.46 -29.38 124.33 131.07 204.17 -11.47 -76.73 -39.27

NME (%) 75.91 76.29 157.87 159.04 240.37 164.42 76.73 67.56

MNB (%) -65.18 -24.93 99.46 309.60 278.12 3530.32 -75.55 -35.94

MNE (%) 75.82 86.26 138.10 336.38 303.32 3647.08 75.55 69.99

MB (μg/m3) -10.86 -1.07 5.36 2.69 0.48 -0.23 -3.00 -17.47

MAGE (μg/m3) 12.41 2.77 6.81 3.26 0.56 3.30 3.00 30.05

RMSE (μg/m3) 13.51 3.51 16.44 6.75 0.74 4.55 3.49 34.13

Obs Max (μg/m3) 27.59 11.88 8.23 4.39 0.62 12.00 8.61 52.91

Pred Max (μg/m3) 31.45 12.90 67.55 25.33 2.17 4.65 2.62 113.43

Mean_Obs 16.35 3.63 4.31 2.05 0.23 2.00 3.90 44.48

Mean_Pred 5.48 2.56 9.67 4.74 0.71 1.77 0.91 27.01

Std_Dev_Obs 5.74 2.26 1.88 1.17 0.13 3.83 1.82 6.00

Std_Dev_Pre 7.08 3.74 16.57 6.23 0.54 1.28 0.76 28.02

Variance 182.58 12.31 270.43 45.58 0.55 20.74 12.15 1165.02

R2 0.04 0.19 0.16 0.00 0.03 0.29 0.04 0.06

BF 0.35 0.75 1.99 3.91 3.78 14.85 0.24 0.64

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
 C-14 

Table C-4d. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Caney Creek Class I 

area.

CACR bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -98.27 -48.24 12.50 -32.03 121.94 192.93 -80.27 -54.72

MFE (%) 115.70 107.35 51.24 50.47 127.27 192.93 89.10 68.41

Ap 0.74 0.60 -0.05 -0.05 2.68 10.90 -0.73 0.75

NMB (%) -49.86 -8.82 17.09 -26.56 422.09 6340.14 -64.97 -32.38

NME (%) 75.74 92.86 46.05 37.07 428.84 6340.14 67.42 50.84

MNB (%) -48.65 38.51 36.27 -15.41 2407.02 24672.54 -48.65 -32.00

MNE (%) 71.78 132.02 63.94 43.59 2411.82 24672.54 60.37 49.96

MB (μg/m3) -4.15 -0.52 0.77 -0.45 1.23 3.55 -1.32 -10.93

MAGE (μg/m3) 6.30 5.44 2.07 0.63 1.25 3.55 1.37 17.16

RMSE (μg/m3) 7.49 7.61 2.34 0.73 1.45 4.64 1.92 19.73

Obs Max (μg/m3) 15.58 18.62 9.59 2.61 0.76 1.20 5.41 42.26

Pred Max (μg/m3) 27.18 29.87 9.11 2.48 2.80 14.24 1.45 73.85

Mean_Obs 8.32 5.86 4.49 1.70 0.29 0.06 2.04 33.75

Mean_Pred 4.17 5.34 5.25 1.25 1.52 3.61 0.71 22.82

Std_Dev_Obs 3.75 5.22 2.15 0.67 0.20 0.25 1.41 7.14

Std_Dev_Pre 6.91 7.23 2.63 0.61 0.74 3.03 0.35 17.54

Variance 56.13 57.90 5.47 0.53 2.09 21.58 3.69 389.25

R2 0.17 0.06 0.32 0.34 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.09

BF 0.51 1.39 1.36 0.85 25.07 45.04 0.51 0.68

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-4e. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Chassahowitzka 

Class I area.

CHAS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -97.65 -185.48 -62.20 -34.33 75.31 179.65 -77.10 -71.12

MFE (%) 117.54 185.48 67.73 48.95 85.36 190.74 79.50 77.64

Ap 1.16 -0.84 -0.23 0.11 0.30 1.00 -0.54 0.48

NMB (%) -49.52 -95.94 -46.59 -25.06 104.88 1176.77 -58.67 -45.69

NME (%) 77.32 95.94 51.53 41.99 124.45 1297.43 59.97 53.66

MNB (%) -46.09 -95.88 -41.14 -19.10 338.45 472.23 -51.69 -46.07

MNE (%) 79.70 95.88 47.39 43.56 346.64 522.75 54.46 53.71

MB (μg/m3) -8.50 -4.25 -2.65 -0.59 0.36 6.75 -2.10 -20.64

MAGE (μg/m3) 13.27 4.25 2.94 1.00 0.43 7.45 2.15 24.23

RMSE (μg/m3) 15.07 4.48 3.50 1.22 0.53 8.82 2.61 26.26

Obs Max (μg/m3) 24.80 8.90 8.38 3.78 1.14 10.05 7.40 52.76

Pred Max (μg/m3) 53.53 1.41 6.45 4.19 1.48 20.13 3.39 77.91

Mean_Obs 17.16 4.43 5.70 2.37 0.34 0.57 3.58 45.17

Mean_Pred 8.66 0.18 3.04 1.78 0.70 7.33 1.48 24.53

Std_Dev_Obs 5.32 1.45 1.58 0.59 0.29 2.15 1.49 6.38

Std_Dev_Pre 12.45 0.31 1.36 0.85 0.26 4.94 0.54 17.53

Variance 227.25 20.04 12.27 1.48 0.29 77.76 6.81 689.51

R2 0.02 0.03 0.07 0.02 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.10

BF 0.54 0.04 0.59 0.81 4.38 0.78 0.48 0.54

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
 C-15 

Table C-4f. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cohutta Class I area.

COHU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -87.92 -80.72 -5.85 -24.92 92.95 198.40 -43.63 -64.47

MFE (%) 106.08 104.25 41.26 44.71 108.35 198.40 89.95 70.27

Ap 0.57 -0.18 0.54 0.03 1.38 23.19 -0.88 -0.01

NMB (%) -43.70 -38.79 8.59 -16.07 189.67 16676.44 -71.13 -41.05

NME (%) 69.09 67.47 40.33 33.25 204.65 16676.44 82.18 47.02

MNB (%) -45.05 -35.48 8.54 -12.98 451.68 10913.35 -9.19 -41.72

MNE (%) 71.18 67.60 45.10 38.67 462.35 10913.35 84.08 48.37

MB (μg/m3) -7.46 -1.79 0.39 -0.30 0.51 2.40 -0.91 -16.67

MAGE (μg/m3) 11.80 3.12 1.82 0.61 0.55 2.40 1.05 19.10

RMSE (μg/m3) 12.95 4.15 2.32 0.70 0.73 2.97 2.24 21.31

Obs Max (μg/m3) 24.33 14.54 6.69 3.25 0.84 0.28 8.34 51.42

Pred Max (μg/m3) 38.12 11.93 10.33 3.34 1.99 6.75 0.99 50.69

Mean_Obs 17.08 4.62 4.52 1.84 0.27 0.01 1.27 40.62

Mean_Pred 9.62 2.83 4.91 1.55 0.78 2.41 0.37 23.94

Std_Dev_Obs 4.94 3.06 1.37 0.73 0.22 0.06 2.05 6.33

Std_Dev_Pre 10.77 3.50 2.79 0.84 0.51 1.80 0.23 14.43

Variance 167.74 17.20 5.39 0.49 0.53 8.81 5.01 453.92

R2 0.04 0.10 0.30 0.44 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.12

BF 0.55 0.65 1.09 0.87 5.52 11.01 0.86 0.58

N 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Table C-4g. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Dolly Sods Class I 

area.

DOSO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -107.37 -62.64 -78.22 -73.22 104.58 200.00 -84.35 -97.79

MFE (%) 109.37 98.95 78.34 76.44 110.05 200.00 127.36 97.79

Ap -0.04 0.45 -0.52 -0.47 2.47 -999.00 -0.79 -0.21

NMB (%) -62.79 -24.54 -57.40 -49.56 317.65 -999.00 -79.16 -61.85

NME (%) 65.70 64.67 57.44 51.87 321.71 -999.00 84.37 61.85

MNB (%) -64.90 -18.19 -52.99 -48.25 926.54 -999.00 20.22 -63.26

MNE (%) 67.01 69.59 53.11 52.13 931.32 -999.00 143.07 63.26

MB (μg/m3) -8.23 -0.74 -2.55 -0.92 0.45 0.82 -0.56 -20.58

MAGE (μg/m3) 8.61 1.96 2.55 0.96 0.46 0.82 0.60 20.58

RMSE (μg/m3) 9.90 2.68 3.16 1.10 0.59 1.02 0.80 21.54

Obs Max (μg/m3) 23.24 9.02 9.02 3.44 0.43 0.00 1.93 43.68

Pred Max (μg/m3) 22.29 13.11 4.36 1.82 1.49 2.76 0.41 34.63

Mean_Obs 13.11 3.03 4.43 1.85 0.14 0.00 0.71 33.27

Mean_Pred 4.88 2.29 1.89 0.93 0.59 0.82 0.15 12.69

Std_Dev_Obs 5.34 2.39 2.10 0.76 0.11 0.00 0.61 7.00

Std_Dev_Pre 5.28 3.02 1.13 0.52 0.40 0.63 0.10 7.57

Variance 98.09 7.20 9.97 1.20 0.34 1.05 0.64 464.10

R2 0.19 0.30 0.18 0.35 0.05 -999.00 0.11 0.36

BF 0.35 0.82 0.47 0.52 10.27 0.00 1.20 0.37

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
 C-16 

Table C-4h. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cohutta Class I area.

EVER bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -165.78 -199.82 -8.55 -6.99 -58.20 -10.33 -119.13 -131.93

MFE (%) 165.78 199.82 43.15 52.61 105.18 127.64 119.13 131.93

Ap -0.61 -1.00 -0.18 -0.17 -0.85 -0.67 -0.64 -0.55

NMB (%) -88.57 -99.95 -5.12 -12.84 -69.39 -58.59 -76.84 -78.61

NME (%) 88.57 99.95 40.75 47.33 84.41 98.24 76.84 78.61

MNB (%) -89.70 -99.95 3.63 -2.76 -1.43 -56.94 -72.48 -78.57

MNE (%) 89.70 99.95 40.75 41.91 96.80 57.89 72.48 78.57

MB (μg/m3) -8.06 -2.04 -0.15 -0.12 -0.27 -0.74 -1.80 -23.62

MAGE (μg/m3) 8.06 2.04 1.21 0.45 0.33 1.24 1.80 23.62

RMSE (μg/m3) 8.36 2.15 1.47 0.64 0.52 1.75 2.03 23.93

Obs Max (μg/m3) 14.39 3.74 5.72 2.89 1.84 4.83 3.91 32.94

Pred Max (μg/m3) 5.54 0.02 4.71 2.39 0.27 1.57 1.40 14.82

Mean_Obs 9.10 2.04 2.96 0.95 0.39 1.26 2.35 30.05

Mean_Pred 1.04 0.00 2.81 0.83 0.12 0.52 0.54 6.43

Std_Dev_Obs 2.57 0.68 0.96 0.63 0.43 1.44 0.89 2.39

Std_Dev_Pre 1.26 0.00 1.05 0.60 0.06 0.39 0.30 3.22

Variance 69.82 4.61 2.16 0.41 0.27 3.07 4.13 572.47

R2 0.23 0.00 0.01 0.22 0.12 0.14 0.00 0.00

BF 0.10 0.00 1.04 0.93 0.99 0.30 0.28 0.21

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-4i. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Great Smoky 

Mountains Class I area.

GRSM bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -94.17 -85.46 4.96 -7.50 138.59 178.02 -92.16 -63.98

MFE (%) 106.13 121.52 35.87 46.24 146.55 192.47 100.92 73.86

Ap 1.26 0.42 0.48 0.80 5.01 1.79 -0.80 1.12

NMB (%) -46.57 -28.06 17.14 5.51 631.35 909.08 -69.24 -38.72

NME (%) 73.85 89.51 44.67 47.10 648.27 1026.45 72.85 55.67

MNB (%) -43.83 -18.32 18.89 8.54 1821.12 -1.90 -53.08 -37.82

MNE (%) 82.10 96.66 43.55 48.94 1826.58 88.88 64.36 58.76

MB (μg/m3) -8.72 -1.12 0.73 0.11 0.97 2.19 -0.79 -16.09

MAGE (μg/m3) 13.83 3.57 1.91 0.96 1.00 2.48 0.83 23.13

RMSE (μg/m3) 17.59 4.96 2.88 1.22 1.31 3.29 1.09 27.06

Obs Max (μg/m3) 31.91 10.95 8.95 3.38 0.69 3.59 3.75 52.59

Pred Max (μg/m3) 72.10 15.57 13.26 6.09 4.17 10.01 0.77 111.51

Mean_Obs 18.72 3.99 4.27 2.03 0.15 0.24 1.14 41.55

Mean_Pred 10.00 2.87 5.00 2.15 1.13 2.43 0.35 25.46

Std_Dev_Obs 8.30 3.09 1.77 0.72 0.17 0.84 0.78 9.77

Std_Dev_Pre 14.66 4.40 3.10 1.33 0.89 2.27 0.21 21.63

Variance 309.58 24.64 8.30 1.48 1.70 10.85 1.19 732.11

R2 0.03 0.03 0.18 0.16 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03

BF 0.56 0.82 1.19 1.09 19.21 0.09 0.47 0.62

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
 C-17 

Table C-4j. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Hercules Glade Class 

I area.

HEGL bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -132.82 -81.46 -11.53 -30.28 144.10 200.00 -32.67 -47.04

MFE (%) 132.82 103.95 40.05 41.82 144.10 200.00 57.88 60.54

Ap -0.63 1.76 0.17 -0.04 8.46 -999.00 -0.35 0.89

NMB (%) -77.98 -20.11 -4.87 -21.83 720.14 -999.00 -28.19 -28.48

NME (%) 77.98 82.73 35.75 33.02 720.14 -999.00 48.77 46.61

MNB (%) -78.28 -32.69 0.82 -20.20 911.74 -999.00 -11.82 -29.64

MNE (%) 78.28 78.59 39.89 33.88 911.74 -999.00 51.51 47.04

MB (μg/m3) -9.24 -1.15 -0.27 -0.53 2.20 8.53 -0.67 -11.19

MAGE (μg/m3) 9.24 4.73 2.01 0.80 2.20 8.53 1.16 18.31

RMSE (μg/m3) 9.68 7.54 2.51 0.94 2.56 10.14 1.47 20.11

Obs Max (μg/m3) 17.95 13.33 9.21 3.73 0.57 0.00 5.14 44.20

Pred Max (μg/m3) 6.62 36.84 10.79 3.57 5.40 22.46 3.33 83.40

Mean_Obs 11.85 5.71 5.61 2.41 0.31 0.00 2.39 39.28

Mean_Pred 2.61 4.56 5.34 1.88 2.50 8.53 1.71 28.09

Std_Dev_Obs 3.36 3.53 1.88 0.74 0.13 0.00 1.10 3.87

Std_Dev_Pre 1.80 8.16 2.56 0.86 1.32 5.60 0.81 18.23

Variance 93.67 56.85 6.31 0.88 6.57 102.75 2.15 404.22

R2 0.23 0.13 0.14 0.27 0.02 -999.00 0.00 0.15

BF 0.22 0.67 1.01 0.80 10.12 0.00 0.88 0.70

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-4k. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the James River Face 

Class I area.

JARI bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -91.09 -83.18 -65.51 -65.84 84.39 199.75 -132.42 -83.60

MFE (%) 100.63 118.95 69.44 67.77 84.97 199.75 132.42 87.18

Ap -0.09 0.75 -0.67 -0.72 0.88 330.57 -0.77 0.09

NMB (%) -47.44 -45.84 -49.87 -54.56 146.02 291595.78 -80.40 -52.48

NME (%) 59.51 92.91 53.49 55.58 146.61 291595.78 80.40 56.50

MNB (%) -51.16 -4.56 -44.70 -45.74 216.63 6626.39 -78.95 -52.91

MNE (%) 63.28 112.94 49.69 47.91 217.19 6626.39 78.95 57.42

MB (μg/m3) -10.04 -2.26 -3.11 -1.88 0.35 2.00 -1.05 -25.36

MAGE (μg/m3) 12.59 4.59 3.34 1.91 0.35 2.00 1.05 27.30

RMSE (μg/m3) 14.16 5.71 4.56 2.62 0.43 2.45 1.18 29.72

Obs Max (μg/m3) 41.57 10.56 21.39 9.96 0.69 0.02 2.90 60.15

Pred Max (μg/m3) 37.76 18.46 6.97 2.82 1.29 5.24 0.67 65.41

Mean_Obs 21.16 4.94 6.24 3.44 0.24 0.00 1.31 48.33

Mean_Pred 11.12 2.67 3.13 1.56 0.59 2.00 0.26 22.97

Std_Dev_Obs 7.70 2.48 3.83 1.96 0.15 0.00 0.61 7.18

Std_Dev_Pre 11.63 4.04 1.82 0.58 0.26 1.45 0.15 16.35

Variance 200.48 32.55 20.77 6.87 0.18 6.01 1.39 883.03

R2 0.25 0.10 0.21 0.10 0.09 0.02 0.36 0.08

BF 0.49 0.95 0.55 0.54 3.17 2.92 0.21 0.47

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
 C-18 

Table C-4l. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Linville Gorge Class I 

area.

LIGO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -115.63 -95.20 -45.21 -44.22 104.52 181.01 -105.22 -97.19

MFE (%) 116.61 115.72 51.50 50.16 115.41 181.18 119.65 97.19

Ap -0.44 -0.72 0.31 -0.09 1.23 2.10 -0.83 -0.42

NMB (%) -69.37 -53.30 -31.24 -31.42 230.32 1115.81 -77.59 -63.14

NME (%) 69.82 71.17 42.01 38.50 251.11 1117.78 78.96 63.14

MNB (%) -69.20 -43.30 -30.96 -29.43 510.03 884.70 -45.89 -63.32

MNE (%) 70.23 74.23 38.11 36.49 519.16 885.91 88.23 63.32

MB (μg/m3) -9.06 -1.22 -1.42 -0.68 0.42 0.97 -0.72 -21.62

MAGE (μg/m3) 9.12 1.63 1.90 0.83 0.46 0.97 0.74 21.62

RMSE (μg/m3) 10.48 2.33 2.46 1.05 0.59 1.28 1.00 22.72

Obs Max (μg/m3) 25.33 11.62 8.77 4.76 0.70 0.98 3.43 41.91

Pred Max (μg/m3) 14.31 3.29 11.47 4.35 1.56 3.06 0.57 24.48

Mean_Obs 13.05 2.29 4.53 2.16 0.18 0.09 0.93 34.24

Mean_Pred 4.00 1.07 3.12 1.48 0.60 1.05 0.21 12.62

Std_Dev_Obs 5.92 2.24 2.03 0.95 0.16 0.27 0.80 6.50

Std_Dev_Pre 3.72 1.15 2.65 1.07 0.42 0.82 0.14 6.37

Variance 109.79 5.41 6.07 1.10 0.35 1.65 1.01 516.35

R2 0.20 0.19 0.41 0.46 0.02 0.00 0.43 0.14

BF 0.31 0.57 0.69 0.71 6.10 1.41 0.54 0.37

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Table C-4m. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Mammoth Cave 

Class I area.

MACA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -121.24 -61.27 -66.90 -38.39 96.54 200.00 -53.22 -83.33

MFE (%) 121.24 98.70 67.80 46.35 106.03 200.00 106.30 83.33

Ap -0.45 0.12 -0.29 -0.27 0.55 -999.00 -0.80 -0.04

NMB (%) -73.51 -18.48 -47.74 -32.06 228.66 -999.00 -61.68 -53.43

NME (%) 73.51 84.20 48.54 37.77 248.33 -999.00 76.41 53.43

MNB (%) -72.87 -13.78 -46.23 -24.86 315.06 -999.00 -6.34 -53.97

MNE (%) 72.87 81.80 47.16 34.63 322.26 -999.00 97.75 53.97

MB (μg/m3) -18.73 -1.78 -3.18 -0.94 0.86 3.45 -0.71 -30.58

MAGE (μg/m3) 18.73 8.09 3.24 1.11 0.94 3.45 0.88 30.58

RMSE (μg/m3) 20.15 10.57 3.79 1.47 1.10 4.21 1.21 34.66

Obs Max (μg/m3) 39.05 30.49 13.25 6.05 1.41 0.00 4.08 65.36

Pred Max (μg/m3) 21.37 34.29 9.43 4.41 2.19 8.01 0.83 63.00

Mean_Obs 25.48 9.61 6.67 2.94 0.38 0.00 1.15 57.23

Mean_Pred 6.75 7.83 3.49 2.00 1.24 3.45 0.44 26.65

Std_Dev_Obs 6.70 6.69 2.68 1.11 0.27 0.00 1.02 6.69

Std_Dev_Pre 5.16 9.91 2.19 0.90 0.60 2.47 0.25 17.74

Variance 405.94 111.65 14.33 2.17 1.22 17.73 1.47 1201.52

R2 0.04 0.05 0.42 0.13 0.03 -999.00 0.03 0.12

BF 0.27 0.86 0.54 0.75 4.15 0.00 0.90 0.46

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
 C-19 

Table C-4n. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Mingo Class I area.

MING bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -122.89 -71.02 -31.76 -7.09 138.37 197.99 24.07 -20.17

MFE (%) 122.89 108.52 46.62 37.98 138.37 197.99 58.30 47.25

Ap -0.59 4.78 -0.27 0.22 4.57 53.62 -0.18 2.28

NMB (%) -73.17 15.70 -26.09 -2.91 508.18 20904.07 14.53 0.62

NME (%) 73.17 124.27 39.88 37.18 508.18 20904.07 64.88 48.50

MNB (%) -73.66 10.81 -17.69 3.48 1070.38 3119.60 89.76 -1.41

MNE (%) 73.66 118.63 38.69 38.50 1070.38 3119.60 114.86 46.76

MB (μg/m3) -12.68 0.74 -1.74 -0.07 2.61 21.82 0.41 0.29

MAGE (μg/m3) 12.68 5.88 2.66 0.88 2.61 21.82 1.84 22.58

RMSE (μg/m3) 13.73 13.02 3.40 1.10 3.11 28.77 2.72 35.59

Obs Max (μg/m3) 32.46 11.03 12.57 3.80 1.45 1.47 9.86 56.75

Pred Max (μg/m3) 13.20 63.78 9.23 4.66 8.05 80.50 8.10 186.22

Mean_Obs 17.33 4.73 6.68 2.38 0.51 0.10 2.83 46.57

Mean_Pred 4.65 5.48 4.93 2.31 3.12 21.93 3.24 46.86

Std_Dev_Obs 6.18 3.01 2.76 0.77 0.38 0.35 2.51 7.41

Std_Dev_Pre 3.83 13.49 2.45 1.07 1.71 19.37 1.84 38.39

Variance 188.61 169.45 11.59 1.21 9.67 827.57 7.42 1266.49

R2 0.25 0.03 0.12 0.09 0.00 0.27 0.05 0.13

BF 0.26 1.11 0.82 1.03 11.70 2.93 1.90 0.99

Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-4o. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Okefenokee Class I 

area.

OKEF bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -128.51 -179.19 31.20 -51.96 15.38 151.32 -127.01 -83.50

MFE (%) 128.51 179.19 43.66 66.15 92.26 162.36 127.01 83.50

Ap -0.57 -0.56 0.83 -0.13 -0.23 0.04 -0.71 -0.33

NMB (%) -76.36 -92.60 53.82 -31.70 5.19 217.14 -80.36 -56.54

NME (%) 76.36 92.60 61.43 49.69 109.76 270.83 80.36 56.54

MNB (%) -76.48 -92.69 52.43 -31.75 160.17 -8.23 -75.22 -56.79

MNE (%) 76.48 92.69 62.30 51.45 208.59 31.64 75.22 56.79

MB (μg/m3) -14.61 -3.72 3.79 -0.69 0.02 0.59 -1.57 -26.00

MAGE (μg/m3) 14.61 3.72 4.33 1.09 0.41 0.74 1.57 26.00

RMSE (μg/m3) 15.31 4.06 5.77 1.22 0.55 0.88 1.81 27.22

Obs Max (μg/m3) 26.45 8.07 11.63 4.86 1.77 2.07 3.93 52.70

Pred Max (μg/m3) 11.29 3.56 21.29 4.24 1.36 2.15 1.12 35.48

Mean_Obs 19.13 4.02 7.05 2.18 0.37 0.27 1.96 45.99

Mean_Pred 4.52 0.30 10.85 1.49 0.39 0.86 0.38 19.99

Std_Dev_Obs 4.27 1.56 2.04 0.85 0.39 0.61 0.94 5.57

Std_Dev_Pre 3.31 0.77 5.18 1.11 0.32 0.52 0.27 8.41

Variance 234.25 16.49 33.34 1.48 0.31 0.78 3.27 740.97

R2 0.07 0.01 0.28 0.23 0.07 0.09 0.06 0.13

BF 0.24 0.07 1.52 0.68 2.60 0.21 0.25 0.43

Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
 C-20 

Table C-4p. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Cape Romain Class I 

area.

ROMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -124.88 -181.06 -94.53 -46.13 12.09 -31.75 -43.14 -122.25

MFE (%) 135.54 181.06 101.08 72.68 84.22 150.25 63.91 126.73

Ap 0.56 -0.57 0.10 -0.25 1.56 -0.80 -0.58 0.06

NMB (%) -59.52 -93.83 -50.21 -35.42 27.07 -75.42 -45.43 -69.84

NME (%) 78.50 93.83 61.05 49.83 104.69 108.25 53.72 74.60

MNB (%) -60.36 -93.35 -56.56 -35.41 71.98 -4.48 -19.27 -70.13

MNE (%) 87.92 93.35 64.79 46.91 115.30 120.19 52.90 76.16

MB (μg/m3) -8.44 -2.51 -1.72 -0.37 0.06 -2.52 -1.23 -27.68

MAGE (μg/m3) 11.13 2.51 2.09 0.53 0.23 3.62 1.46 29.56

RMSE (μg/m3) 12.73 2.73 2.45 0.75 0.37 5.48 2.27 30.48

Obs Max (μg/m3) 26.12 4.50 8.19 5.01 0.65 15.38 8.77 50.02

Pred Max (μg/m3) 40.73 1.93 9.04 3.75 1.66 3.04 3.67 53.00

Mean_Obs 14.19 2.68 3.43 1.06 0.22 3.35 2.71 39.63

Mean_Pred 5.74 0.17 1.71 0.68 0.28 0.82 1.48 11.95

Std_Dev_Obs 6.77 1.02 1.81 1.08 0.18 4.48 2.03 7.68

Std_Dev_Pre 9.02 0.43 2.23 0.93 0.37 0.88 0.88 12.36

Variance 161.99 7.47 5.98 0.56 0.13 30.00 5.16 928.75

R2 0.07 0.00 0.40 0.63 0.05 0.23 0.09 0.05

BF 0.40 0.07 0.43 0.62 1.72 0.75 0.81 0.30

Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-4q. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the St. Marks Class I 

area.

SAMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -126.89 -188.67 0.59 -14.74 1.18 160.72 -97.03 -97.60

MFE (%) 137.86 188.67 63.77 63.21 119.22 174.90 100.19 102.93

Ap 0.37 -0.80 1.33 0.82 -0.69 3.18 -0.64 0.28

NMB (%) -68.20 -96.21 45.71 21.88 -42.60 502.57 -67.55 -57.30

NME (%) 80.63 96.21 84.58 78.78 103.88 537.83 69.19 63.73

MNB (%) -60.48 -96.73 40.44 14.39 195.14 3985.28 -60.84 -57.58

MNE (%) 88.12 96.73 85.00 69.07 259.81 4022.29 64.66 64.99

MB (μg/m3) -12.62 -2.70 2.03 0.34 -0.20 0.93 -1.72 -23.78

MAGE (μg/m3) 14.92 2.70 3.76 1.23 0.48 1.00 1.76 26.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 15.81 2.84 5.77 1.86 0.70 1.37 2.07 28.55

Obs Max (μg/m3) 24.51 4.76 9.53 3.98 2.05 1.13 4.89 50.25

Pred Max (μg/m3) 33.63 0.96 22.22 7.25 0.64 4.74 1.75 64.45

Mean_Obs 18.50 2.80 4.45 1.57 0.47 0.19 2.54 41.51

Mean_Pred 5.88 0.11 6.48 1.91 0.27 1.12 0.83 17.73

Std_Dev_Obs 4.41 0.96 1.96 1.04 0.58 0.37 1.09 6.13

Std_Dev_Pre 8.14 0.25 5.95 2.16 0.19 1.16 0.45 16.11

Variance 249.94 8.05 33.28 3.45 0.49 1.87 4.27 814.88

R2 0.02 0.14 0.14 0.25 0.23 0.26 0.00 0.03

BF 0.40 0.03 1.40 1.14 2.95 11.14 0.39 0.42

Num_Points 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
 C-21 

Table C-4r. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Shenandoah Class I 

area.

SHEN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -74.36 25.46 35.69 15.95 133.54 200.00 -62.78 -25.64

MFE (%) 93.26 75.95 50.96 36.84 133.54 200.00 73.10 53.35

Ap 5.97 1.09 5.98 4.44 3.08 -999.00 -0.54 3.27

NMB (%) 4.37 74.12 91.62 50.01 420.15 -999.00 -52.15 6.69

NME (%) 99.60 103.04 107.36 67.27 420.15 -999.00 56.76 56.93

MNB (%) -9.26 79.51 87.61 49.86 901.25 -999.00 -39.38 2.07

MNE (%) 96.56 110.24 100.76 66.81 901.25 -999.00 54.53 57.60

MB (μg/m3) 0.52 3.61 2.55 0.81 0.57 3.12 -0.47 2.16

MAGE (μg/m3) 11.86 5.02 2.99 1.09 0.57 3.12 0.51 18.34

RMSE (μg/m3) 28.13 6.76 7.50 2.78 0.65 3.91 0.61 34.08

Obs Max (μg/m3) 20.73 11.73 5.74 2.68 0.35 0.00 1.92 42.00

Pred Max (μg/m3) 144.46 24.52 40.06 14.58 1.41 8.41 0.89 179.34

Mean_Obs 11.90 4.87 2.78 1.62 0.14 0.00 0.90 32.21

Mean_Pred 12.42 8.48 5.33 2.43 0.71 3.12 0.43 34.37

Std_Dev_Obs 4.19 2.96 1.49 0.69 0.09 0.00 0.49 6.21

Std_Dev_Pre 29.54 6.95 7.90 2.83 0.33 2.40 0.22 36.39

Variance 791.22 45.64 56.28 7.74 0.42 15.25 0.37 1161.58

R2 0.07 0.31 0.28 0.08 0.20 -999.00 0.37 0.12

BF 0.91 1.80 1.88 1.50 10.01 0.00 0.61 1.02

Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-4s. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Shining Rock Class I 

area.

SHRO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -75.84 -81.41 13.51 27.00 123.07 194.49 -1.93 -68.69

MFE (%) 86.97 107.46 56.47 58.31 131.08 194.49 144.41 74.39

Ap 1.86 -0.12 0.39 0.57 3.68 36.95 -0.76 0.70

NMB (%) -32.22 -52.02 30.21 41.98 483.48 9454.52 -69.54 -42.24

NME (%) 62.92 80.62 67.11 68.10 499.53 9454.52 93.21 51.49

MNB (%) -43.15 -17.86 61.34 130.27 1099.73 1414.30 21.60 -44.28

MNE (%) 62.34 93.68 91.14 155.33 1105.94 1414.30 142.80 51.78

MB (μg/m3) -2.64 -0.81 0.74 0.46 0.46 0.92 -0.43 -10.14

MAGE (μg/m3) 5.16 1.25 1.63 0.74 0.47 0.92 0.58 12.36

RMSE (μg/m3) 7.24 1.75 2.33 1.02 0.59 1.32 0.82 14.01

Obs Max (μg/m3) 13.73 4.65 6.13 2.31 0.28 0.10 2.87 31.05

Pred Max (μg/m3) 39.24 4.09 8.51 3.63 1.29 3.81 0.68 52.94

Mean_Obs 8.19 1.55 2.43 1.09 0.09 0.01 0.62 24.00

Mean_Pred 5.55 0.75 3.17 1.55 0.55 0.93 0.19 13.86

Std_Dev_Obs 4.17 1.30 1.31 0.58 0.08 0.03 0.70 5.96

Std_Dev_Pre 8.28 1.00 2.05 0.98 0.38 0.97 0.14 10.91

Variance 52.35 3.08 5.44 1.05 0.35 1.75 0.68 196.33

R2 0.31 0.00 0.02 0.14 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.19

BF 0.57 0.79 1.61 2.30 12.00 2.52 0.86 0.56

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
 C-22 

Table C-4t. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Sipsey Class I area.

SIPS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -106.85 -109.16 -9.15 -54.86 77.60 200.00 -117.27 -69.04

MFE (%) 120.51 109.41 40.17 64.97 113.99 200.00 117.27 78.81

Ap 1.69 -0.33 0.70 -0.04 -0.14 -999.00 -0.74 1.04

NMB (%) -47.35 -56.06 8.56 -36.07 120.89 -999.00 -76.03 -41.33

NME (%) 84.16 56.35 41.07 46.35 198.21 -999.00 76.03 57.32

MNB (%) -53.46 -61.27 2.84 -34.17 389.14 -999.00 -71.89 -42.53

MNE (%) 82.66 61.52 39.22 48.53 410.41 -999.00 71.89 57.28

MB (μg/m3) -9.62 -4.46 0.59 -0.98 0.65 3.74 -1.76 -21.39

MAGE (μg/m3) 17.11 4.49 2.83 1.26 1.06 3.74 1.76 29.67

RMSE (μg/m3) 21.62 6.66 3.79 1.53 1.30 4.54 2.07 32.63

Obs Max (μg/m3) 36.05 21.36 11.04 4.69 2.95 0.00 4.24 61.55

Pred Max (μg/m3) 97.08 14.24 18.78 4.49 2.52 9.09 1.12 125.72

Mean_Obs 20.32 7.96 6.89 2.72 0.54 0.00 2.31 51.75

Mean_Pred 10.70 3.50 7.48 1.74 1.19 3.74 0.55 30.36

Std_Dev_Obs 6.48 5.30 2.40 1.08 0.67 0.00 1.17 6.11

Std_Dev_Pre 20.91 4.28 5.23 1.17 0.75 2.64 0.29 26.57

Variance 467.50 44.35 14.40 2.35 1.70 20.58 4.28 1064.78

R2 0.10 0.21 0.54 0.19 0.10 -999.00 0.08 0.11

BF 0.47 0.39 1.03 0.66 4.89 0.00 0.28 0.57

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Table C-4u. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Swanquarter Class I 

area.

SWAN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -136.66 -161.55 -38.76 -28.09 46.67 34.79 -118.19 -118.69

MFE (%) 138.38 170.70 62.73 58.61 109.65 173.91 118.19 120.57

Ap -0.13 1.44 2.83 1.96 0.27 -0.67 -0.60 0.18

NMB (%) -74.90 -69.17 11.83 17.63 96.96 -46.99 -72.45 -68.09

NME (%) 77.12 92.56 65.71 77.26 189.16 134.86 72.45 70.44

MNB (%) -76.02 -77.95 -12.66 83.61 335.71 -81.74 -73.26 -69.58

MNE (%) 77.94 92.54 56.88 146.06 375.39 81.74 73.26 71.69

MB (μg/m3) -9.68 -1.72 0.37 0.18 0.16 -0.66 -2.15 -24.60

MAGE (μg/m3) 9.97 2.30 2.06 0.80 0.31 1.89 2.15 25.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 10.90 2.57 4.25 1.71 0.42 3.11 2.37 26.66

Obs Max (μg/m3) 21.09 4.21 6.60 2.59 0.87 11.33 6.25 42.25

Pred Max (μg/m3) 18.25 10.24 25.28 7.65 1.11 3.69 2.53 49.97

Mean_Obs 12.93 2.48 3.14 1.04 0.16 1.40 2.97 36.13

Mean_Pred 3.24 0.77 3.51 1.22 0.32 0.74 0.82 11.53

Std_Dev_Obs 3.88 0.85 1.44 0.75 0.19 2.68 1.42 3.96

Std_Dev_Pre 4.36 2.22 5.35 1.84 0.32 1.02 0.60 11.96

Variance 118.84 6.61 18.09 2.91 0.18 9.70 5.63 710.89

R2 0.05 0.23 0.60 0.11 0.03 0.08 0.62 0.26

BF 0.24 0.22 0.87 1.84 4.36 0.09 0.27 0.30

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
 C-23 

Table C-4v. Model performance statistics for the Best 20% Days and the Upper Buffalo Class I 

area.

UPBU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -138.41 -121.02 -23.25 -46.69 93.32 199.90 -110.88 -88.95

MFE (%) 139.43 121.02 44.59 56.99 108.59 199.90 126.30 90.01

Ap -0.07 -0.37 -0.11 0.36 2.20 1232.47 -0.85 0.00

NMB (%) -77.41 -71.02 -13.97 -31.38 262.69 767627.06 -78.16 -58.54

NME (%) 79.10 71.02 36.99 43.46 275.35 767627.06 81.63 59.75

MNB (%) -78.49 -70.21 -11.36 -29.34 1615.30 17510.96 -57.49 -57.86

MNE (%) 79.56 70.21 37.29 42.69 1625.86 17510.96 84.47 58.99

MB (μg/m3) -8.11 -3.62 -0.67 -0.54 0.95 3.28 -2.71 -21.59

MAGE (μg/m3) 8.28 3.62 1.76 0.74 1.00 3.28 2.83 22.04

RMSE (μg/m3) 9.10 4.57 2.03 0.88 1.19 4.05 3.42 23.65

Obs Max (μg/m3) 19.65 12.68 8.70 2.65 0.81 0.01 8.94 44.16

Pred Max (μg/m3) 18.27 7.98 7.73 3.60 2.58 11.59 1.31 44.17

Mean_Obs 10.47 5.10 4.77 1.71 0.36 0.00 3.47 36.88

Mean_Pred 2.36 1.48 4.10 1.17 1.32 3.28 0.76 15.29

Std_Dev_Obs 4.10 3.60 1.70 0.47 0.17 0.00 2.13 5.26

Std_Dev_Pre 3.75 1.87 2.09 0.74 0.63 2.44 0.33 8.88

Variance 82.79 20.90 4.14 0.78 1.41 16.42 11.68 559.29

R2 0.18 0.38 0.23 0.12 0.20 0.02 0.00 0.01

BF 0.22 0.30 0.89 0.71 17.15 8.00 0.43 0.42

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-5a. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days across Class I areas in the 

12 km VISTAS grid. 

12km bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -63.82 -121.18 -32.08 -63.17 22.51 188.69 -87.88 -49.58

MFE (%) 74.05 146.07 50.78 70.50 69.91 191.96 115.76 60.44

Ap -0.50 0.44 -0.83 -0.28 -0.43 8.80 -0.65 -0.43

NMB (%) -39.35 -18.22 -29.24 -42.51 36.38 18564.68 -69.20 -32.51

NME (%) 50.22 87.96 48.66 52.21 97.47 18666.07 74.92 44.58

MNB (%) -38.14 -39.83 -15.63 -41.16 156.91 7919.56 -39.56 -29.87

MNE (%) 51.57 102.75 43.37 51.71 189.98 7956.43 88.73 44.15

MB (μg/m3) -48.14 -1.38 -6.15 -2.24 0.38 12.46 -2.26 -55.75

MAGE (μg/m3) 61.44 6.66 10.23 2.75 1.01 12.52 2.44 76.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 82.20 13.69 28.78 3.59 1.79 20.70 3.53 101.79

Obs Max (μg/m3) 475.66 107.80 614.69 41.23 16.92 11.70 20.96 735.80

Pred Max (μg/m3) 235.90 154.76 102.23 29.67 9.61 114.64 7.23 419.01

Mean_Obs 122.36 7.57 21.03 5.26 1.04 0.07 3.26 171.51

Mean_Pred 74.22 6.19 14.88 3.03 1.42 12.52 1.01 115.76

Std_Dev_Obs 68.78 14.02 31.42 3.03 1.23 0.57 2.77 72.23

Std_Dev_Pre 59.70 18.80 12.73 3.01 1.23 16.52 1.03 74.73

Variance 6757.49 187.38 828.03 12.88 3.20 428.51 12.47 10360.90

R2 0.22 0.48 0.20 0.32 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.11

BF 0.62 0.60 0.84 0.59 2.57 4.23 0.58 0.70

N 512 512 510 510 512 512 512 512
 C-24 

Table C-5b. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Breton Island Class I 

area.

BRET bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -108.00 -197.37 -85.96 -103.52 -39.07 138.89 -103.81 -108.13

MFE (%) 113.52 197.37 88.07 103.52 106.38 165.39 103.81 109.77

Ap -0.13 -0.96 -0.75 -0.68 -0.84 1.71 -0.37 -0.25

NMB (%) -58.22 -98.65 -60.76 -69.59 -60.95 572.95 -61.85 -62.38

NME (%) 64.22 98.65 62.79 69.59 99.61 650.61 61.85 63.98

MNB (%) -60.00 -99.31 -53.74 -66.26 39.75 76.21 -63.36 -62.99

MNE (%) 66.37 99.31 56.03 66.26 126.72 130.85 63.36 64.73

MB (μg/m3) -42.55 -8.04 -5.76 -3.05 -0.78 1.64 -2.74 -69.94

MAGE (μg/m3) 46.94 8.04 5.95 3.05 1.28 1.87 2.74 71.73

RMSE (μg/m3) 52.63 10.62 10.17 3.77 2.59 2.49 3.16 79.19

Obs Max (μg/m3) 126.22 29.70 46.34 12.96 11.47 1.93 10.72 171.55

Pred Max (μg/m3) 109.49 1.16 11.69 4.20 1.84 5.21 6.78 129.27

Mean_Obs 73.10 8.15 9.47 4.38 1.28 0.29 4.44 112.12

Mean_Pred 30.54 0.11 3.72 1.33 0.50 1.93 1.69 42.17

Std_Dev_Obs 18.79 7.30 10.41 2.76 2.32 0.55 2.01 19.64

Std_Dev_Pre 34.94 0.30 3.36 0.93 0.52 1.69 1.72 40.19

Variance 2770.25 112.76 103.42 14.21 6.70 6.18 9.96 6270.32

R2 0.19 0.55 0.44 0.43 0.08 0.07 0.42 0.13

BF 0.40 0.01 0.46 0.34 1.40 0.51 0.37 0.37

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-5c. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Brigantine Class I 

area.

BRIG bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -68.36 -54.70 -42.36 -16.55 25.67 197.35 -96.66 -44.58

MFE (%) 76.35 101.20 51.78 34.66 67.60 197.35 133.02 55.90

Ap -0.28 0.60 -0.83 -0.28 -0.44 17.73 -0.92 -0.70

NMB (%) -44.01 58.77 -63.48 -14.87 38.85 16306.94 -81.39 -38.91

NME (%) 53.83 103.33 67.06 30.43 98.91 16306.94 84.05 48.12

MNB (%) -43.87 -1.06 -27.55 -7.43 133.28 486.75 -76.23 -28.70

MNE (%) 54.42 87.49 40.23 34.29 162.56 486.75 76.23 42.52

MB (μg/m3) -53.74 7.87 -31.03 -1.17 0.43 8.35 -3.53 -81.61

MAGE (μg/m3) 65.73 13.84 32.78 2.40 1.08 8.35 3.64 100.93

RMSE (μg/m3) 77.68 25.55 110.38 3.47 1.68 9.45 5.34 154.13

Obs Max (μg/m3) 275.18 71.94 614.69 41.23 6.83 1.13 20.65 735.80

Pred Max (μg/m3) 197.92 115.45 102.23 29.67 3.80 21.08 1.62 223.13

Mean_Obs 122.10 13.40 48.89 7.88 1.10 0.05 4.34 209.75

Mean_Pred 68.36 21.27 17.86 6.71 1.52 8.40 0.81 128.14

Std_Dev_Obs 60.77 16.68 127.43 7.80 1.30 0.24 4.16 133.57

Std_Dev_Pre 52.55 37.68 20.47 5.76 1.05 4.52 0.31 56.24

Variance 6034.93 652.70 12184.42 12.05 2.83 89.35 28.56 23754.77

R2 0.24 0.74 0.88 0.85 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.04

BF 0.56 0.99 0.72 0.93 2.33 0.27 0.22 0.71

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
 C-25 

Table C-5d. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Caney Creek Class I 

area.

CACR bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -69.34 -45.08 -7.66 -68.17 31.62 190.50 -113.64 -43.67

MFE (%) 73.49 94.78 32.17 68.17 57.31 190.50 122.51 52.94

Ap -0.46 0.69 -0.12 -0.34 -0.26 20.76 -0.81 -0.25

NMB (%) -46.53 23.99 -3.37 -49.45 29.65 24425.54 -79.04 -30.60

NME (%) 50.44 86.91 28.24 49.45 81.70 24425.54 79.74 40.54

MNB (%) -45.19 17.81 0.41 -48.37 140.50 1964.48 -61.55 -26.81

MNE (%) 50.01 99.08 30.62 48.37 158.09 1964.48 79.67 40.75

MB (μg/m3) -50.95 2.45 -0.66 -2.16 0.42 14.33 -3.40 -49.12

MAGE (μg/m3) 55.22 8.88 5.55 2.16 1.16 14.33 3.43 65.08

RMSE (μg/m3) 78.07 23.14 7.96 2.46 1.88 16.37 3.94 92.23

Obs Max (μg/m3) 281.03 70.57 51.07 7.26 6.70 1.35 7.89 324.07

Pred Max (μg/m3) 151.79 119.16 44.88 4.82 4.98 29.35 1.46 244.51

Mean_Obs 109.50 10.22 19.65 4.38 1.43 0.06 4.30 160.52

Mean_Pred 58.54 12.67 18.99 2.21 1.85 14.38 0.90 111.40

Std_Dev_Obs 61.21 17.65 10.63 1.38 1.34 0.28 1.98 59.45

Std_Dev_Pre 44.67 27.86 10.96 1.04 1.01 8.19 0.32 65.64

Variance 6095.27 535.44 63.35 6.06 3.54 267.87 15.53 8506.03

R2 0.15 0.30 0.52 0.29 0.07 0.13 0.01 0.04

BF 0.55 1.18 1.00 0.52 2.41 0.90 0.38 0.73

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

Table C-5e. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Chassahowitzka 

Class I area.

CHAS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -56.60 -120.68 -35.75 -30.28 103.28 200.00 -20.70 -16.94

MFE (%) 65.36 143.24 47.42 50.30 115.65 200.00 41.49 34.42

Ap 0.63 1.18 -0.34 0.35 0.04 -999.00 -0.48 0.51

NMB (%) -30.52 -46.96 -29.64 -18.68 199.83 -999.00 -24.95 -9.49

NME (%) 45.19 90.60 40.89 44.17 239.31 -999.00 41.42 31.54

MNB (%) -36.55 -38.40 -24.84 -16.13 522.15 -999.00 -9.21 -10.29

MNE (%) 47.47 100.64 38.58 45.44 531.13 -999.00 37.57 31.36

MB (μg/m3) -23.98 -2.50 -6.10 -1.16 1.31 28.97 -0.67 -11.87

MAGE (μg/m3) 35.52 4.83 8.42 2.73 1.57 28.97 1.11 39.44

RMSE (μg/m3) 40.90 6.12 11.22 3.14 1.84 30.72 1.65 44.81

Obs Max (μg/m3) 121.53 9.87 71.19 10.37 3.58 0.00 6.40 169.84

Pred Max (μg/m3) 198.53 21.47 46.83 14.02 3.71 58.76 3.31 256.55

Mean_Obs 78.59 5.33 20.60 6.19 0.66 0.00 2.69 125.05

Mean_Pred 54.61 2.83 14.49 5.03 1.97 28.97 2.02 113.18

Std_Dev_Obs 22.96 2.23 14.55 1.97 0.74 0.00 1.34 19.06

Std_Dev_Pre 46.76 5.23 10.49 3.27 0.87 10.47 0.50 50.42

Variance 1673.04 37.40 125.95 9.83 3.38 943.77 2.73 2007.87

R2 0.53 0.00 0.56 0.19 0.11 -999.00 0.07 0.25

BF 0.63 0.62 0.75 0.84 6.22 0.00 0.91 0.90

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
 C-26 

Table C-5f. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Cohutta Class I area.

COHU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -64.44 -114.37 -8.34 -64.29 4.78 190.48 45.44 -51.06

MFE (%) 73.26 131.32 41.25 76.94 46.01 190.48 141.50 59.52

Ap -0.48 1.00 -0.17 -0.03 -0.15 -999.00 -0.85 -0.44

NMB (%) -48.01 -40.98 -3.97 -41.16 6.48 -999.00 -65.26 -39.23

NME (%) 54.69 87.80 50.87 57.36 50.78 -999.00 100.69 46.26

MNB (%) -40.29 -55.39 9.05 -38.89 40.67 -999.00 -25.45 -33.00

MNE (%) 50.79 83.95 45.41 58.09 72.18 -999.00 70.16 42.53

MB (μg/m3) -88.61 -1.87 -1.03 -2.07 0.07 10.91 -1.11 -91.72

MAGE (μg/m3) 100.93 4.01 13.15 2.88 0.56 10.91 1.71 108.16

RMSE (μg/m3) 126.52 5.37 21.92 3.25 0.81 12.79 3.03 138.10

Obs Max (μg/m3) 376.51 16.47 96.66 9.78 3.19 0.00 9.23 507.89

Pred Max (μg/m3) 194.78 32.90 80.36 9.48 2.69 29.03 1.37 282.09

Mean_Obs 184.56 4.57 25.85 5.03 1.10 0.00 1.70 233.80

Mean_Pred 95.95 2.70 24.83 2.96 1.17 10.91 0.59 142.08

Std_Dev_Obs 81.83 3.53 18.12 1.51 0.59 0.00 2.77 91.26

Std_Dev_Pre 52.37 7.17 17.61 2.35 0.55 6.84 0.28 66.55

Variance 16006.81 28.82 480.69 10.57 0.66 163.56 9.17 19072.43

R2 0.01 0.54 0.04 0.03 0.00 -999.00 0.13 0.02

BF 0.60 0.45 1.09 0.61 1.41 0.00 0.43 0.67

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

Table C-5g. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Dolly Sods Class I 

area.

DOSO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -72.68 -116.04 -46.04 -106.64 -18.55 191.30 -133.53 -70.32

MFE (%) 79.52 127.19 65.52 106.64 42.44 191.30 133.53 75.20

Ap -0.45 0.19 -0.37 -0.73 -0.37 -999.00 -0.93 -0.46

NMB (%) -47.87 -60.19 -34.19 -69.89 -17.51 -999.00 -86.58 -47.83

NME (%) 54.04 77.85 49.85 69.89 34.44 -999.00 86.58 52.21

MNB (%) -45.39 -58.71 -26.38 -68.33 3.88 -999.00 -77.99 -45.29

MNE (%) 53.23 75.27 50.74 68.33 49.74 -999.00 77.99 50.65

MB (μg/m3) -73.37 -1.72 -4.04 -2.89 -0.14 3.03 -1.36 -88.24

MAGE (μg/m3) 82.83 2.23 5.89 2.89 0.28 3.03 1.36 96.32

RMSE (μg/m3) 113.35 2.55 6.91 3.11 0.38 3.37 1.78 129.42

Obs Max (μg/m3) 404.99 5.69 26.51 7.50 1.78 0.00 4.85 451.54

Pred Max (μg/m3) 223.28 6.78 16.74 2.06 1.11 5.67 0.34 243.89

Mean_Obs 153.28 2.86 11.82 4.14 0.82 0.00 1.57 184.51

Mean_Pred 79.91 1.14 7.78 1.25 0.68 3.03 0.21 96.26

Std_Dev_Obs 78.10 1.10 5.71 1.22 0.32 0.00 1.21 80.44

Std_Dev_Pre 63.83 1.73 4.41 0.43 0.29 1.51 0.07 68.63

Variance 12847.43 6.53 47.69 9.70 0.14 11.38 3.18 16750.30

R2 0.06 0.02 0.15 0.07 0.10 -999.00 0.32 0.03

BF 0.55 0.41 0.74 0.32 1.04 0.00 0.22 0.55

Num_Points 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
 C-27 

Table C-5h. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Everglades Class I 

area.

EVER bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -78.63 -193.20 -20.53 -23.81 -1.47 146.26 -106.69 -72.38

MFE (%) 92.21 193.20 60.07 60.39 102.54 182.68 106.69 81.65

Ap 0.30 -0.92 -0.77 0.09 -0.84 0.02 -0.77 -0.24

NMB (%) -34.44 -97.70 -40.91 -20.12 -37.65 365.97 -75.50 -42.18

NME (%) 56.66 97.70 68.37 46.07 111.98 526.54 75.50 54.59

MNB (%) -42.02 -98.16 3.60 -16.04 116.22 27.90 -66.00 -41.14

MNE (%) 60.29 98.16 52.64 41.20 179.95 127.20 66.00 52.69

MB (μg/m3) -13.47 -3.75 -7.39 -0.95 -0.50 2.67 -2.44 -34.61

MAGE (μg/m3) 22.15 3.75 12.35 2.18 1.50 3.84 2.44 44.79

RMSE (μg/m3) 26.53 4.08 29.80 3.20 3.59 5.05 3.57 58.45

Obs Max (μg/m3) 79.12 8.02 134.42 10.81 16.92 11.70 13.75 196.06

Pred Max (μg/m3) 103.14 0.67 31.29 11.74 2.74 11.92 3.18 149.58

Mean_Obs 39.10 3.84 18.06 4.74 1.34 0.73 3.23 82.04

Mean_Pred 25.63 0.09 10.67 3.79 0.84 3.40 0.79 47.43

Std_Dev_Obs 17.43 1.72 27.39 2.70 3.37 2.41 2.64 28.80

Std_Dev_Pre 28.94 0.17 8.82 3.09 0.81 3.01 0.63 42.20

Variance 704.09 16.68 887.81 10.22 12.91 25.47 12.75 3416.20

R2 0.35 0.19 0.01 0.18 0.05 0.09 0.01 0.01

BF 0.58 0.02 1.04 0.80 2.16 0.27 0.34 0.59

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-5i. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Great Smokey 

Mountains Class I area.

GRSM bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -63.76 -163.78 -1.34 -63.89 1.23 200.00 -100.86 -52.84

MFE (%) 65.31 197.12 37.84 64.35 43.61 200.00 124.35 54.90

Ap -0.31 -0.85 0.42 -0.25 0.74 -999.00 -0.83 -0.20

NMB (%) -43.46 -97.29 -0.61 -46.94 5.71 -999.00 -80.08 -38.18

NME (%) 44.65 97.64 39.61 47.41 43.59 -999.00 83.61 39.87

MNB (%) -43.44 -99.12 13.10 -46.37 48.53 -999.00 -27.41 -37.69

MNE (%) 45.09 99.12 44.16 46.84 80.70 -999.00 107.85 39.86

MB (μg/m3) -73.15 -2.67 -0.11 -2.25 0.06 7.32 -1.63 -79.67

MAGE (μg/m3) 75.14 2.68 7.46 2.28 0.42 7.32 1.70 83.20

RMSE (μg/m3) 92.01 3.23 10.13 2.54 0.57 8.15 2.15 100.92

Obs Max (μg/m3) 308.51 10.16 33.88 7.71 1.52 0.00 4.89 347.18

Pred Max (μg/m3) 212.34 1.54 47.97 5.81 2.66 17.08 0.82 277.94

Mean_Obs 168.29 2.75 18.83 4.80 0.97 0.00 2.03 208.67

Mean_Pred 95.15 0.07 18.71 2.55 1.02 7.32 0.40 129.00

Std_Dev_Obs 64.74 2.07 7.77 1.29 0.37 0.00 1.42 65.71

Std_Dev_Pre 58.12 0.31 8.98 1.16 0.53 3.68 0.15 66.87

Variance 8466.67 10.42 102.61 6.47 0.32 66.48 4.61 10185.05

R2 0.33 0.56 0.06 0.27 0.04 -999.00 0.00 0.30

BF 0.57 0.01 1.13 0.54 1.49 0.00 0.73 0.62

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
 C-28 

Table C-5j. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Hercules Glade Class I 

area.

HEGL bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -62.64 -64.72 -31.35 -67.72 88.94 192.00 -37.50 -27.40

MFE (%) 73.75 95.79 40.17 67.72 93.38 192.00 51.55 43.36

Ap -0.54 -0.19 -0.33 -0.31 0.80 -999.00 -0.58 -0.45

NMB (%) -39.63 -21.48 -26.27 -48.11 176.06 -999.00 -36.57 -19.99

NME (%) 52.05 55.67 35.45 48.11 190.77 -999.00 47.96 36.40

MNB (%) -37.25 -18.60 -22.76 -48.54 330.59 -999.00 -23.65 -14.88

MNE (%) 52.07 75.95 33.30 48.54 334.07 -999.00 40.40 34.41

MB (μg/m3) -41.28 -3.14 -4.77 -2.39 1.84 28.38 -1.05 -31.35

MAGE (μg/m3) 54.21 8.13 6.44 2.39 1.99 28.38 1.38 57.08

RMSE (μg/m3) 82.66 16.53 8.68 2.63 2.53 30.85 1.93 90.89

Obs Max (μg/m3) 339.47 99.26 42.42 9.36 4.42 0.00 8.18 377.55

Pred Max (μg/m3) 155.36 80.27 28.32 6.45 7.97 47.45 3.41 207.61

Mean_Obs 104.15 14.60 18.16 4.96 1.04 0.00 2.88 156.80

Mean_Pred 62.87 11.47 13.39 2.57 2.88 28.38 1.83 125.46

Std_Dev_Obs 61.34 27.70 8.58 1.45 0.82 0.00 1.57 52.29

Std_Dev_Pre 49.77 22.81 6.10 1.33 1.52 12.33 0.63 59.02

Variance 6832.22 273.09 75.41 6.90 6.43 951.43 3.74 8260.55

R2 0.02 0.64 0.29 0.46 0.01 -999.00 0.00 0.05

BF 0.63 0.81 0.77 0.51 4.31 0.00 0.76 0.85

N 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25

Table C-5k. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the James Rover Face 

Class I area.

JARI bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -44.05 -161.63 -45.20 -99.63 -17.57 200.00 -151.62 -46.37

MFE (%) 55.27 173.62 50.38 99.63 35.59 200.00 151.62 52.93

Ap -0.23 0.64 -0.74 -0.70 -0.76 -999.00 -0.96 -0.27

NMB (%) -29.70 -72.08 -45.42 -66.94 -25.82 -999.00 -88.49 -33.54

NME (%) 40.79 96.06 47.83 66.94 36.46 -999.00 88.49 39.47

MNB (%) -27.68 -77.76 -32.72 -65.82 -5.07 -999.00 -85.78 -32.04

MNE (%) 41.58 96.60 38.51 65.82 36.00 -999.00 85.78 39.68

MB (μg/m3) -48.04 -3.12 -11.73 -4.71 -0.28 6.09 -2.62 -71.76

MAGE (μg/m3) 65.98 4.16 12.36 4.71 0.39 6.09 2.62 84.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 78.63 4.57 23.32 5.01 0.79 6.47 3.13 97.61

Obs Max (μg/m3) 274.58 8.70 119.43 11.72 4.58 0.00 10.28 324.44

Pred Max (μg/m3) 212.68 14.24 30.79 3.53 1.11 9.46 0.44 237.97

Mean_Obs 161.76 4.33 25.83 7.03 1.07 0.00 2.96 213.98

Mean_Pred 113.71 1.21 14.10 2.32 0.79 6.09 0.34 142.22

Std_Dev_Obs 44.65 1.96 23.46 1.98 0.80 0.00 1.76 52.76

Std_Dev_Pre 62.85 3.39 6.34 0.64 0.21 2.23 0.07 65.78

Variance 6182.14 20.87 543.67 25.14 0.62 41.85 9.82 9528.45

R2 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.22 0.13 -999.00 0.00 0.13

BF 0.72 0.22 0.67 0.34 0.95 0.00 0.14 0.68

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
 C-29 

Table C-5l. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Linville Gorge Class I 

area.

LIGO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -62.93 -150.69 -30.70 -87.63 -18.24 196.89 -153.13 -57.00

MFE (%) 67.74 159.27 40.91 87.63 31.41 196.89 153.13 60.02

Ap -0.19 -0.02 0.15 -0.33 0.08 3.84 -0.82 -0.23

NMB (%) -39.98 -71.27 -23.15 -59.18 -15.85 5689.19 -86.95 -38.66

NME (%) 44.99 82.09 32.56 59.18 28.30 5689.19 86.95 41.53

MNB (%) -41.43 -74.75 -21.29 -59.63 -11.88 384.10 -86.53 -39.51

MNE (%) 46.79 85.40 33.45 59.63 27.35 384.10 86.53 42.81

MB (μg/m3) -58.86 -1.63 -3.65 -2.69 -0.13 5.25 -2.09 -71.19

MAGE (μg/m3) 66.23 1.88 5.14 2.69 0.23 5.25 2.09 76.47

RMSE (μg/m3) 75.30 2.08 6.40 2.81 0.29 5.68 2.19 87.22

Obs Max (μg/m3) 290.29 4.53 31.89 6.06 1.27 2.03 4.03 343.89

Pred Max (μg/m3) 235.90 4.41 36.79 4.06 1.37 9.82 0.75 266.44

Mean_Obs 147.22 2.29 15.77 4.55 0.81 0.09 2.40 184.14

Mean_Pred 88.35 0.66 12.12 1.86 0.68 5.34 0.31 112.95

Std_Dev_Obs 49.16 0.94 6.92 0.97 0.26 0.43 0.74 52.20

Std_Dev_Pre 60.94 1.28 7.33 0.84 0.30 2.38 0.14 65.76

Variance 5669.60 4.34 41.00 7.88 0.09 32.28 4.81 7607.62

R2 0.41 0.10 0.51 0.36 0.29 0.18 0.29 0.41

BF 0.59 0.25 0.79 0.40 0.88 0.22 0.13 0.60

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-5m. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Mammoth Cave 

Class I area.

MACA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -65.12 -134.11 -64.77 -68.22 37.17 183.33 73.57 -57.57

MFE (%) 68.90 147.55 66.39 68.22 55.41 183.33 156.43 60.57

Ap -0.38 -0.37 0.07 -0.25 -0.53 -999.00 -0.69 -0.39

NMB (%) -46.69 -57.44 -44.40 -49.42 22.76 -999.00 -28.66 -42.27

NME (%) 49.96 65.21 46.28 49.42 72.16 -999.00 117.76 44.92

MNB (%) -41.05 -64.03 -45.70 -48.73 103.82 -999.00 23.87 -37.74

MNE (%) 45.22 84.58 47.41 48.73 117.45 -999.00 124.55 41.05

MB (μg/m3) -83.29 -5.79 -9.61 -2.75 0.29 13.40 -0.32 -96.83

MAGE (μg/m3) 89.11 6.58 10.02 2.75 0.93 13.40 1.31 102.89

RMSE (μg/m3) 120.48 10.17 11.30 3.15 1.58 15.17 1.60 136.14

Obs Max (μg/m3) 347.31 107.80 40.53 9.05 8.22 0.00 4.63 405.74

Pred Max (μg/m3) 216.80 68.26 43.56 6.76 3.90 25.46 1.41 246.32

Mean_Obs 178.37 10.09 21.64 5.57 1.28 0.00 1.11 229.07

Mean_Pred 95.08 4.29 12.03 2.82 1.58 13.40 0.79 132.24

Std_Dev_Obs 68.00 21.11 7.98 1.75 1.55 0.00 1.56 65.54

Std_Dev_Pre 56.54 13.85 8.66 1.42 0.69 7.28 0.27 65.53

Variance 14514.27 103.51269 127.72 9.90 2.51 230.24 2.55 18532.89

R2 0.00 0.93 0.54 0.29 0.03 -999.00 0.00 0.01

BF 0.59 0.36 0.54 0.51 2.04 0.00 0.62 0.62

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
 C-30 

Table C-5n. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Mingo Class I area.

MING bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -20.59 -53.58 -22.20 -18.82 107.61 190.54 -13.23 20.38

MFE (%) 66.65 111.83 49.34 43.70 113.87 190.54 37.67 54.93

Ap -0.13 0.07 -0.22 -0.25 0.45 72.50 -0.38 0.46

NMB (%) 4.74 30.45 -27.80 -22.91 206.49 87137.63 -21.72 40.81

NME (%) 59.76 64.63 44.49 40.91 227.86 87137.63 36.98 65.30

MNB (%) 6.00 58.25 5.73 1.02 587.75 13729.83 -3.73 47.74

MNE (%) 65.16 150.88 56.28 48.24 592.40 13729.83 36.45 69.83

MB (μg/m3) 5.35 6.29 -4.29 -1.12 2.99 69.04 -1.12 69.50

MAGE (μg/m3) 67.43 13.36 6.87 2.00 3.30 69.04 1.91 111.22

RMSE (μg/m3) 83.82 21.83 9.85 2.64 3.77 76.00 2.60 136.16

Obs Max (μg/m3) 263.55 105.09 40.46 10.36 6.65 1.56 11.69 287.91

Pred Max (μg/m3) 228.22 112.07 31.38 7.75 9.61 114.64 7.23 419.01

Mean_Obs 112.84 20.67 15.43 4.89 1.45 0.08 5.15 170.33

Mean_Pred 118.19 26.96 11.14 3.77 4.44 69.12 4.03 239.83

Std_Dev_Obs 63.96 30.73 10.19 2.42 1.37 0.33 2.83 43.37

Std_Dev_Pre 88.99 38.04 6.24 1.47 1.73 32.57 1.04 111.15

Variance 7025.62 476.67 97.08 6.99 14.18 5776.49 6.75 18538.89

R2 0.17 0.68 0.22 0.08 0.02 0.03 0.32 0.00

BF 1.06 1.58 1.06 1.01 6.88 12.57 0.96 1.48

N 22 22 20 20 22 22 22 22

Table C-5o. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Okefenokee Class I 

area.

OKEF bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -79.19 -151.20 -7.49 -66.68 18.36 193.37 -117.48 -60.64

MFE (%) 79.72 153.54 42.51 78.30 75.40 193.37 121.37 60.64

Ap -0.23 -0.62 -0.49 -0.21 0.42 5.42 -0.71 -0.10

NMB (%) -49.55 -78.69 -18.89 -42.37 30.38 6970.71 -79.40 -43.75

NME (%) 50.03 80.92 50.95 62.56 90.15 6970.71 80.10 43.75

MNB (%) -52.76 -80.49 6.44 -39.32 296.99 62.41 -68.22 -42.38

MNE (%) 53.31 83.19 39.20 60.73 338.55 62.41 72.60 42.38

MB (μg/m3) -47.55 -4.38 -6.64 -3.20 0.24 4.11 -2.14 -69.45

MAGE (μg/m3) 48.02 4.51 17.90 4.72 0.72 4.11 2.16 69.45

RMSE (μg/m3) 57.10 5.46 37.27 7.22 0.93 4.49 2.47 88.19

Obs Max (μg/m3) 271.57 15.83 156.35 29.54 1.57 1.36 4.79 341.01

Pred Max (μg/m3) 208.50 6.03 80.47 23.21 2.23 8.70 1.41 308.25

Mean_Obs 95.97 5.57 35.14 7.54 0.79 0.06 2.69 158.76

Mean_Pred 48.41 1.19 28.50 4.35 1.04 4.17 0.55 89.30

Std_Dev_Obs 57.98 3.49 32.48 6.19 0.45 0.28 1.33 60.33

Std_Dev_Pre 44.25 1.86 19.09 5.04 0.59 1.75 0.33 57.69

Variance 3260.75 29.83 1388.71 52.15 0.86 20.15 6.12 7777.06

R2 0.69 0.12 0.00 0.10 0.30 0.06 0.09 0.31

BF 0.47 0.20 1.06 0.61 3.97 0.07 0.32 0.58

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
 C-31 

Table C-5p. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Cape Romain Class I 

area.

ROMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -56.37 -143.06 -55.60 -71.38 19.21 200.00 -17.45 -51.44

MFE (%) 73.61 169.89 59.90 73.52 93.27 200.00 88.22 62.26

Ap -0.31 3.18 -0.25 -0.08 0.66 -999.00 -0.16 -0.30

NMB (%) -38.82 -13.25 -36.31 -41.50 54.48 -999.00 -35.45 -35.48

NME (%) 57.49 135.58 44.40 46.11 122.86 -999.00 63.08 47.16

MNB (%) -29.54 -30.23 -36.69 -48.41 204.20 -999.00 327.16 -30.91

MNE (%) 53.90 131.34 42.01 50.87 254.18 -999.00 396.06 45.14

MB (μg/m3) -33.72 -0.69 -7.33 -2.27 0.38 6.16 -0.91 -47.20

MAGE (μg/m3) 49.93 7.06 8.97 2.53 0.85 6.16 1.62 62.73

RMSE (μg/m3) 67.15 12.07 14.36 2.93 1.06 7.11 2.10 79.95

Obs Max (μg/m3) 234.53 13.18 70.65 14.42 1.77 0.00 7.17 270.34

Pred Max (μg/m3) 162.03 55.10 52.73 13.30 2.93 13.62 6.04 189.41

Mean_Obs 86.86 5.21 20.20 5.48 0.69 0.00 2.57 133.01

Mean_Pred 53.14 4.52 12.86 3.21 1.07 6.16 1.66 85.82

Std_Dev_Obs 49.18 2.74 15.93 3.04 0.40 0.00 1.72 46.84

Std_Dev_Pre 39.67 12.76 12.71 3.08 0.82 3.62 1.15 49.11

Variance 4508.59 145.67 206.27 8.57 1.12 50.58 4.39 6392.06

R2 0.01 0.07 0.40 0.66 0.08 -999.00 0.02 0.00

BF 0.70 0.70 0.63 0.52 3.04 0.00 4.27 0.69

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-5q. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the St. Marks Class I 

area.

SAMA bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -65.33 -155.89 -5.70 -36.19 7.23 199.98 -92.52 -53.12

MFE (%) 69.16 155.89 53.89 56.79 89.12 199.98 97.18 56.84

Ap -0.06 -0.53 0.24 0.61 -0.16 1920.06 -0.34 -0.03

NMB (%) -40.40 -74.41 0.20 -4.63 26.17 1762079.63 -62.69 -34.34

NME (%) 45.02 74.41 50.55 56.59 110.11 1762079.63 64.18 38.46

MNB (%) -42.17 -83.45 18.88 -10.13 268.57 113272.12 -57.20 -35.23

MNE (%) 46.35 83.45 58.03 56.61 322.15 113272.12 62.93 39.24

MB (μg/m3) -37.22 -3.58 0.04 -0.28 0.23 6.90 -1.93 -47.55

MAGE (μg/m3) 41.48 3.58 10.40 3.39 0.98 6.90 1.98 53.27

RMSE (μg/m3) 51.84 4.16 14.75 5.69 1.33 7.80 2.30 65.75

Obs Max (μg/m3) 174.11 17.40 76.59 17.16 4.06 0.01 7.80 207.54

Pred Max (μg/m3) 162.80 8.26 95.29 27.58 3.41 17.29 5.13 200.98

Mean_Obs 92.14 4.81 20.59 5.99 0.89 0.00 3.08 138.50

Mean_Pred 54.92 1.23 20.63 5.71 1.12 6.90 1.15 90.94

Std_Dev_Obs 34.96 3.53 18.04 3.86 0.76 0.00 1.60 30.80

Std_Dev_Pre 40.81 2.25 20.11 7.30 0.89 3.73 1.14 51.92

Variance 2687.22 17.32 217.69 32.39 1.76 60.83 5.31 4323.43

R2 0.29 0.65 0.48 0.37 0.09 0.04 0.37 0.22

BF 0.58 0.17 1.19 0.90 3.69 49.29 0.43 0.65

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
 C-32 

Table C-5r. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Shenandoah Class I 

area.

SHEN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -76.03 12.44 -21.00 -77.27 13.36 175.00 -119.18 -69.71

MFE (%) 84.20 97.89 50.51 78.63 50.24 175.00 119.18 77.03

Ap -0.46 -0.13 -0.84 -0.60 -0.75 -999.00 -0.94 -0.36

NMB (%) -49.46 51.63 -43.57 -57.04 -16.01 -999.00 -80.94 -44.97

NME (%) 56.28 129.69 59.35 58.47 50.78 -999.00 80.94 51.51

MNB (%) -45.12 149.15 -2.40 -52.83 59.10 -999.00 -72.31 -41.96

MNE (%) 55.84 198.87 48.56 54.30 86.79 -999.00 72.31 50.86

MB (μg/m3) -86.47 3.04 -8.89 -3.12 -0.18 8.24 -2.65 -99.38

MAGE (μg/m3) 98.39 7.64 12.11 3.20 0.57 8.24 2.65 113.84

RMSE (μg/m3) 117.52 10.84 31.39 4.09 1.17 9.41 3.88 135.13

Obs Max (μg/m3) 354.08 32.37 150.90 15.51 6.59 0.00 15.30 375.09

Pred Max (μg/m3) 192.70 28.15 24.29 6.22 1.63 16.00 0.91 240.70

Mean_Obs 174.83 5.89 20.40 5.48 1.12 0.00 3.27 221.00

Mean_Pred 88.37 8.93 11.51 2.35 0.94 8.24 0.62 121.62

Std_Dev_Obs 74.90 6.47 29.56 2.49 1.30 0.00 2.91 66.32

Std_Dev_Pre 63.95 8.06 6.22 1.10 0.33 4.63 0.18 79.02

Variance 13811.26 117.59460 985.14 16.77 1.37 88.53 15.09 18260.59

R2 0.10 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.23 -999.00 0.01 0.03

BF 0.55 2.49 0.98 0.47 1.59 0.00 0.28 0.58

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Table C-5s. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Shining Rock Class I 

area.

SHRO bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -64.10 -187.59 -31.54 -28.66 -29.64 199.31 -132.94 -57.06

MFE (%) 68.47 187.59 39.71 36.19 41.93 199.31 132.94 59.79

Ap -0.55 -0.85 0.57 0.14 -0.39 151.98 -0.86 -0.52

NMB (%) -44.23 -96.56 -20.83 -23.28 -29.58 50992.11 -83.16 -41.26

NME (%) 48.75 96.56 33.83 31.40 38.94 50992.11 83.16 44.09

MNB (%) -42.37 -96.50 -21.93 -21.05 -19.64 12340.48 -78.61 -39.81

MNE (%) 47.60 96.50 33.53 29.33 33.81 12340.48 78.61 42.98

MB (μg/m3) -71.73 -3.00 -3.26 -0.57 -0.31 5.56 -1.51 -80.99

MAGE (μg/m3) 79.06 3.00 5.30 0.77 0.41 5.56 1.51 86.54

RMSE (μg/m3) 106.33 3.22 6.88 0.95 0.57 5.84 1.73 114.15

Obs Max (μg/m3) 475.66 6.49 23.94 3.86 2.55 0.06 3.68 518.88

Pred Max (μg/m3) 214.07 0.96 37.53 4.41 1.56 8.90 0.50 250.07

Mean_Obs 162.18 3.11 15.66 2.45 1.05 0.01 1.82 196.28

Mean_Pred 90.45 0.11 12.40 1.88 0.74 5.57 0.31 115.28

Std_Dev_Obs 77.95 1.22 4.55 0.73 0.51 0.02 0.88 80.56

Std_Dev_Pre 56.81 0.21 7.07 0.80 0.28 1.82 0.08 61.81

Variance 11306.41 10.38869 47.33 0.90 0.33 34.06 2.98 13029.82

R2 0.11 0.03 0.26 0.24 0.11 0.09 0.21 0.13

BF 0.58 0.03 0.78 0.79 0.80 24.88 0.21 0.60

N 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
 C-33 

Table C-5t. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Sipsey Class I area.

SIPS bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -70.46 -117.95 -10.05 -80.92 22.60 199.72 -129.72 -48.58

MFE (%) 80.31 143.41 59.66 83.49 59.52 199.72 129.72 60.40

Ap -0.26 -0.05 0.81 -0.45 0.37 919.30 -0.72 -0.12

NMB (%) -39.82 -33.47 14.40 -55.11 43.23 738981.75 -79.24 -28.95

NME (%) 49.60 93.13 62.85 57.44 76.60 738981.75 79.24 41.90

MNB (%) -41.83 -47.12 12.97 -54.30 71.45 6291.68 -77.36 -29.54

MNE (%) 53.89 95.39 63.20 57.30 99.81 6291.68 77.36 44.20

MB (μg/m3) -51.76 -3.37 3.35 -3.26 0.43 11.39 -2.45 -53.35

MAGE (μg/m3) 64.47 9.37 14.63 3.40 0.76 11.39 2.45 77.22

RMSE (μg/m3) 76.05 17.21 18.18 3.72 0.99 13.95 2.68 90.66

Obs Max (μg/m3) 279.55 63.69 41.03 11.07 2.28 0.03 5.08 325.68

Pred Max (μg/m3) 208.05 60.69 74.21 6.10 3.12 31.20 1.41 286.87

Mean_Obs 129.97 10.07 23.28 5.92 0.99 0.00 3.09 184.32

Mean_Pred 78.21 6.70 26.63 2.66 1.42 11.39 0.64 130.96

Std_Dev_Obs 65.73 16.76 8.98 1.85 0.45 0.01 1.08 62.72

Std_Dev_Pre 64.39 15.57 20.92 1.40 0.82 8.24 0.33 87.85

Variance 5783.50 296.22 330.57 13.84 0.98 194.58 7.16 8218.50

R2 0.38 0.19 0.24 0.16 0.00 0.06 0.01 0.30

BF 0.58 0.53 1.13 0.46 1.71 2.91 0.23 0.70

N 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22

Table C-5u. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Swanquarter Class I 

area.

SWAN bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -56.96 -122.20 -58.99 -76.45 31.37 187.73 -131.45 -49.02

MFE (%) 81.41 156.01 58.99 79.31 74.32 194.88 131.45 62.35

Ap 0.03 0.45 -0.79 0.21 1.01 6.38 -0.74 0.00

NMB (%) -24.66 3.84 -52.47 -50.51 50.46 7507.01 -80.76 -31.38

NME (%) 57.70 93.70 52.47 55.29 100.20 7623.59 80.76 46.10

MNB (%) -28.04 -19.11 -41.81 -51.65 183.63 -58.29 -77.44 -29.30

MNE (%) 59.96 125.41 41.81 55.08 214.89 58.29 77.44 45.20

MB (μg/m3) -20.67 0.29 -12.17 -2.42 0.31 3.93 -2.95 -42.55

MAGE (μg/m3) 48.38 6.98 12.17 2.65 0.62 3.99 2.95 62.51

RMSE (μg/m3) 58.52 10.49 24.00 2.90 0.87 4.51 3.25 76.28

Obs Max (μg/m3) 209.85 45.16 128.63 7.73 1.34 1.20 7.26 243.51

Pred Max (μg/m3) 216.04 65.32 26.40 9.32 2.68 8.88 1.89 244.55

Mean_Obs 83.84 7.44 23.19 4.79 0.62 0.05 3.65 135.60

Mean_Pred 63.17 7.73 11.02 2.37 0.93 3.98 0.70 93.05

Std_Dev_Obs 43.76 9.31 24.50 1.68 0.34 0.25 1.34 39.17

Std_Dev_Pre 60.46 16.51 6.37 1.92 0.62 2.16 0.41 60.38

Variance 3425.07 110.06 576.21 8.44 0.75 20.33 10.56 5818.45

R2 0.21 0.63 0.38 0.35 0.19 0.12 0.00 0.04

BF 0.72 0.81 0.58 0.48 2.84 0.02 0.23 0.71

N 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
 C-34 

Table C-5v. Model performance statistics for the Worst 20% Days at the Upper Buffalo Class I 

area.

UPBU bextSO4 bextNO3 bextOC bextEC bextSOIL bextSS bextCM totalBEXT

MFB (%) -63.22 -94.84 -21.14 -69.02 52.35 191.67 -150.24 -45.58

MFE (%) 70.32 123.99 27.94 69.02 70.13 191.67 150.24 52.57

Ap -0.40 -0.20 -0.56 -0.30 0.18 -999.00 -0.92 -0.34

NMB (%) -39.96 -21.91 -20.56 -50.26 75.18 -999.00 -89.44 -32.00

NME (%) 47.24 99.30 27.44 50.26 110.32 -999.00 89.44 39.01

MNB (%) -39.30 -4.26 -15.33 -48.75 150.41 -999.00 -84.89 -29.86

MNE (%) 47.64 119.52 22.99 48.75 162.88 -999.00 84.89 37.75

MB (μg/m3) -40.13 -2.13 -3.40 -2.13 0.87 15.10 -7.97 -48.64

MAGE (μg/m3) 47.45 9.67 4.53 2.13 1.27 15.10 7.97 59.30

RMSE (μg/m3) 71.44 20.14 8.32 2.49 1.81 17.18 9.76 84.24

Obs Max (μg/m3) 273.55 98.02 52.31 7.21 5.34 0.00 20.96 311.47

Pred Max (μg/m3) 163.12 78.69 23.01 5.03 6.32 29.04 1.68 204.34

Mean_Obs 100.43 9.74 16.53 4.24 1.15 0.00 8.91 152.01

Mean_Pred 60.30 7.61 13.13 2.11 2.02 15.10 0.94 103.37

Std_Dev_Obs 57.29 21.23 9.64 1.24 0.96 0.00 5.76 53.33

Std_Dev_Pre 47.58 18.03 5.84 0.95 1.15 8.38 0.31 57.74

Variance 5103.16 405.65 69.21 6.20 3.27 295.24 95.35 7097.14

R2 0.12 0.22 0.35 0.09 0.03 -999.00 0.00 0.04

BF 0.61 0.96 0.85 0.51 2.50 0.00 0.15 0.70

N 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
 C-35 

C.2.3 Class I Area Model Performance Evaluation 

Below we summarize the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance at 

each of the Class I area within and nearby the VISTAS region for the best and worst 20% days 

and then for all days during 2002. 

C.2.3.1 Sipsey Wilderness Area (SIPS), Alabama 

C.2.3.1.1 SIPS Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-3a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 

percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and 

EC (bottom right). 
 C-36 

Figure C-3b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 

percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) 

and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-37 

Figure C-4. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for Sipsey, 

Alabama and the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-38 

2.3.1.2 SIPS Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-5a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) 

and EC (bottom right). 
 C-39 

Figure C-5b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Sipsey (SIPS), Alabama for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-40 

Figure C-6. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for Sipsey, 

Alabama and the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-41 

2.3.1.3 SIPS for All Days 

Figure C-7. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Sipsey, Alabama for the CMAQ 2002 Base 

G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-42 

Figure C-7. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Sipsey, Alabama for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-43 

2.3.2 Chassahowitzka Wildlife Refuge (CHAS), Florida 

2.3.2.1 CHAS Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-8a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 

percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-44 

Figure C-8b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 20 

percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-45 

Figure C-9. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CHAS and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-46 

2.3.2.2 CHAS Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-10a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-47 

Figure C-10b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-48 

Figure C-11. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CHAS and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-49 

2.3.2.3 CHAS for All Days 

Figure C-12. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), Florida for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-50 

Figure C-12. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Chassahowitzka (CHAS), 

Florida for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-51 

2.3.3 Everglades National Park (EVER), Florida 

2.3.3.1 EVER Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-13a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-52 

Figure C-13b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-53 

Figure C-14. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for EVER and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-54 

2.3.3.2 EVER Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-15a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-55 

Figure C-15b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-56 

Figure C-16. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for EVER and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-57 

2.3.3.3 EVER for All Days 

Figure C-17. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Everglades (EVER), Florida for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-58 

Figure C-17. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Everglades (EVER), Florida 

for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-59 

2.3.4 St. Marks Wildlife Refuge (SAMA), Florida 

2.3.4.1 SAMA Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-18a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-60 

Figure C-18b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-61 

Figure C-19. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SAMA and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-62 

2.3.4.2 SAMA Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-20a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-63 

Figure C-20b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-64 

Figure C-21. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SAMA and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-65 

2.3.4.3 SAMA for All Days 

Figure C-22. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-66 

Figure C-22. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at St. Marks (SAMA), Florida 

for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-67 

2.3.5 Cohutta Wilderness Area (COHU), Georgia 

2.3.5.1 COHU Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-23a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-68 

Figure C-23b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-69 

Figure C-24. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for COHU and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-70 

2.3.5.2 COHU Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-25a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-71 

Figure C-25b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-72 

Figure C-26. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for COHU and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-73 

2.3.5.3 COHU for All Days 

Figure C-27. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-74 

Figure C-27. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Cohutta (COHU), Georgia for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-75 

2.3.6 Okefenokee Wildlife Refuge (OKEF), Georgia 

2.3.6.1 OKEF Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-28a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-76 

Figure C-28b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-77 

Figure C-29. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for OKEF and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-78 

2.3.6.2 OKEF Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-30a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-79 

Figure C-30b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-80 

Figure C-31. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for OKEF and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-81 

2.3.6.3 OKEF for All Days 

Figure C-32. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Okefenokee (OKEF), 

Georgia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation
 C-82 

Figure C-32. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Okefenokee (OKEF), Georgia for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-83 

2.3.7 Mammoth Cave National Park (MACA), Kentucky 

2.3.7.1 MACA Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-33a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-84 

Figure C-33b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-85 

Figure C-34. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MACA and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-86 

2.3.7.2 MACA Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-35a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-87 

Figure C-35b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-88 

Figure C-36. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MACA and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-89 

2.3.7.3 MACA for All Days 

Figure C-37. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), Kentucky for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-90 

Figure C-37. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Mammoth Cave (MACA), 

Kentucky for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-91 

2.3.8 Linville Gorge Wilderness Area (LIGO), North Carolina 

2.3.8.1 LIGO Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-38a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-92 

Figure C-38b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-93 

Figure C-39. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for LIGO and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-94 

2.3.8.2 LIGO Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-40a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-95 

Figure C-40b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-96 

Figure C-41. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for LIGO and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-97 

2.3.8.3 LIGO for All Days 

Figure C-42. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North Carolina 

for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-98 

Figure C-42. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Linville Gorge (LIGO), North 

Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-99 

2.3.9 Shining Rock Wilderness Area (SHRO), North Carolina 

2.3.9.1 SHRO Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-43a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-100 

Figure C-43b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-101 

Figure C-44. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHRO and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-102 

2.3.9.2 SHRO Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-45a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-103 

Figure C-45b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-104 

Figure C-46. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHRO and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-105 

2.3.9.3 SHRO for All Days 

Figure C-47. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North Carolina for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-106 

Figure C-47. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Shining Rock (SHRO), North 

Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-107 

2.3.10 Swanquarter Wildlife Refuge (SWAN), North Carolina 

2.3.10.1 SWAN Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-48a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-108 

Figure C-48b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-109 

Figure C-49. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SWAN and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-110 

2.3.10.2 SWAN Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-50a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-111 

Figure C-50b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-112 

Figure C-51. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SWAN and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-113 

2.3.10.3 SWAN for All Days 

Figure C-52. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North Carolina for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-114 

Figure C-52. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Swanquarter (SWAN), North 

Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-115 

2.3.11 Cape Romain Wildlife Refuge (ROMA), South Carolina 

2.3.11.1 ROMA Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-53a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-116 

Figure C-53b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-117 

Figure C-54. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for ROMA and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-118 

2.3.11.2 ROMA Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-55a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-119 

Figure C-55b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-120 

Figure C-56. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for ROMA and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-121 

2.3.11.3 ROMA for All Days 

Figure C-57. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Cape Romain (ROMA), South Carolina for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-122 

Figure C-57. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Cape Romain (ROMA), 

South Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-123 

2.3.12 Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina 

2.3.12.1 GRSM Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-58a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for SO4 (top 

left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-124 

Figure C-58b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for Soil (top 

left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-125 

Figure C-59. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for GRSM and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-126 

2.3.12.2 GRSM Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-60a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for SO4 (top 

left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-127 

Figure C-60b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for Soil (top 

left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-128 

Figure C-61. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for GRSM and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-129 

2.3.12.3 GRSM for All Days 

Figure C-62. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, Sea 

Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Great Smoky Mountains (GRSM), 

Tennessee-North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-130 

Figure C-62. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Great Smoky Mountains 

(GRSM), Tennessee-North Carolina for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-131 

2.3.13 James River Face Wilderness Area (JARI), Virginia 

2.3.13.1 JARI Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-63a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-132 

Figure C-63b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-133 

Figure C-64. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for JARI and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-134 

2.3.13.2 JARI Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-65a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-135 

Figure C-65b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at James River (JARI), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-136 

Figure C-66. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for JARI and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-137 

2.3.13.3 JARI for All Days 

Figure C-67. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at James River (JARI), Virginia for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-138 

Figure C-67. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at James River (JARI), Virginia 

for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-139 

2.3.14 Shenandoah National Park (SHEN), Virginia 

2.3.14.1 SHEN Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-68a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-140 

Figure C-68b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-141 

Figure C-69. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHEN and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-142 

2.3.14.2 SHEN Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-70a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-143 

Figure C-70b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-144 

Figure C-71. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for SHEN and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-145 

2.3.14.3 SHEN for All Days 

Figure C-72. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Shenandoah (SHEN), Virginia for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-146 

Figure C-72. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Shenandoah (SHEN), 

Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-147 

2.3.15 Dolly Sods Wilderness Area (DOSO), West Virginia 

2.3.15.1 DOSO Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-73a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-148 

Figure C-73b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-149 

Figure C-74. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for DOSO and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-150 

2.3.15.2 DOSO Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-75a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-151 

Figure C-75b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-152 

Figure C-76. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for DOSO and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-153 

2.3.15.3 DOSO for All Days 

Figure C-77. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West Virginia for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-154 

Figure C-77. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Dolly Sods (DOSO), West 

Virginia for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-155 

2.3.16 Breton Island Wildlife Refuge (BRET), Louisiana 

2.3.16.1 BRET Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-78a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-156 

Figure C-78b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-157 

Figure C-79. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BRET and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-158 

2.3.16.2 BRET Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-80a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom 

left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-159 

Figure C-80b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-160 

Figure C-81. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BRET and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-161 

2.3.16.3 BRET for All Days 
 C-162 

Figure C-82. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Breton (BRET), Louisiana for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-163 

2.3.17 Caney Creek Wilderness Area (CACR), Arkansas 

2.3.17.1 CACR Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-83a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Caney Creek (CACR), Arkansas for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-164 

Figure C-83b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Caney Creek (CACR), Arkansas for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-165 

Figure C-84. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CACR and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-166 

2.3.17.2 CACR Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-85a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Caney Creek (CACR), Arkansas for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-167 

Figure C-85b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Caney Creek (CACR), Arkansas for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-168 

Figure C-86. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for CACR and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-169 

2.3.17.3 CACR for All Days 
 C-170 

Figure C-87. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Caney Creek (CACR), Arkansas for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-171 

2.3.18 Upper Buffalo Wilderness Area (UPBU), Arkansas 

2.3.18.1 UPBU Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-88a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-172 

Figure C-88b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-173 

Figure C-89. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for UPBU and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-174 

2.3.18.2 UPBU Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-90a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-175 

Figure C-90b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-176 

Figure C-91. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for UPBU and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-177 

2.3.18.3 UPBU for All Days 

Figure C-92. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), Arkansas for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-178 

Figure C-92. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Upper Buffalo (UPBU), 

Arkansas for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-179 

2.3.19 Mingo Wildlife Refuge (MING), Missouri 

Figure C-96... .   . . ٛ ๓ ๓〃ٛٛٛٛٛٛ MING Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-93a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) 

and EC (bottom right). 
 C-180 

Figure C-93b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-181 

Figure C-94. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MING and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-182 

2.3.19.2 MING Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-95a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC (bottom left) 

and EC (bottom right). 
 C-183 

Figure C-95b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Worst 

20 percent days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt (bottom 

left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-184 

Figure C-96. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for MING and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-185 

2.3.19.3 MING for All Days 

Figure C-97. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for the CMAQ 

2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-186 

Figure C-97. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Mingo (MING), Missouri for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-187 

2.3.20 Hercules Glade Wilderness Area (HEGL), Missouri 

2.3.20.1 HEGL Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-98a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-188 

Figure C-98b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-189 

Figure C-99. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for HEGL and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-190 

2.3.20.2 HEGL Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-100a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the 

Worst 20 percent days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), 

OMC (bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-191 

Figure C-100b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the 

Worst 20 percent days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-192 

Figure C-101. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for HEGL and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-193 

2.3.20.3 HEGL for All Days 

Figure C-102. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), Missouri for 

the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-194 

Figure C-102. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Hercules Glade (HEGL), 

Missouri for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-195 

2.3.21 Brigantine Wildlife Refuge (BRIG), New Jersey 

2.3.21.1 BRIG Best 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-103a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-196 

Figure C-103b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the Best 

20 percent days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea Salt 

(bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-197 

Figure C-104. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BRIG and 

the Best 20 Percent Days. 
 C-198 

2.3.21.2 BRIG Worst 20 Percent Days 

Figure C-105a. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the 

Worst 20 percent days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for SO4 (top left), NO3 (top right), OMC 

(bottom left) and EC (bottom right). 
 C-199 

Figure C-105b. CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km Actual base case model performance for the 

Worst 20 percent days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for Soil (top left), CM (top right), Sea 

Salt (bottom left) and Total Bext (bottom right). 
 C-200 

Figure C-106. Bugle Plots of Fractional Bias and Fractional Gross Error for BGIG and 

the Worst 20 Percent Days. 
 C-201 

2.3.21.3 BRIG for All Days 

Figure C-107. Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, Soil, CM, 

Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Brigantine (BRIG), New Jersey for the 

CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.
 C-202 

Figure C-107. (concluded) Time series of predicted and observed SO4, NO3, OMC, EC, 

Soil, CM, Sea Salt and PM2.5 mass across all monitoring days at Brigantine (BRIG), New 

Jersey for the CMAQ 2002 Base G2 12 km base case simulation.