STATS IN BRIEF

October 2020

NCES 2021-056

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

Education, Employment, and Earnings

Expectations of 2009 Ninth-Graders in 2016

A Publication of the National Center for Education Statistics at IES

AUTHORS

Emily Kelly and Laura Holian

AnLar, LLC

PROJECT OFFICER

Elise Christopher

National Center for Education Statistics

Statistics in Brief publications present descriptive data 

in tabular formats to provide useful information to a 

broad audience, including members of the general public. 

They address simple and topical issues and questions. 

They do not investigate more complex hypotheses, 

account for interrelationships among variables, or 

support causal inferences. 

We encourage readers who are interested in more 

complex questions and in-depth analysis to explore other 

National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) resources, 

including publications, online data tools, and public- and 

restricted-use datasets. See nces.ed.gov and references 

noted in the body of this document for more 

information. For readers interested in additional 

information about the survey from which the findings 

were drawn and the analyses underlying the findings 

including more detailed data tables and related standard 

errors, please see the “View Technical Notes” link at 

https//nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/

pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2021056tn.

When students make decisions

about their future occupations, they 

may consider many factors including 

their general interests, the amount 

of education and types of skills 

needed, work culture, potential 

salary, and other benefits. This 

Statistics in Brief report provides 

basic descriptive statistics on young 

adults’ expectations about their 

future education, employment, 

and earnings. The Brief begins 

by examining the highest level of 

education young adults expected 

to attain and what job these young 

adults expected to have at age 30. It 

then presents data on young adults’ 

expected yearly earnings at age 30, 

both overall and by their education 

and employment expectations. 

Finally, the Brief provides 

information on how young adults 

valued the importance of certain job 

factors compared to salary. 

Research shows that higher levels of 

education are generally associated 

with higher employment rates and 

higher earnings (McFarland et al. 

2018). Among 25- to 34-year olds 

in 2017, those with a bachelor’s 

or higher degree had the highest 

employment rate at 86 percent 

compared to all other levels of 

educational attainment (McFarland 

et al. 2018). Among 25- to 34-yearolds who worked full year and 

full time in 2016, median annual 

earnings were $25,400 for those 

who did not complete high school, 

$31,800 for those whose highest 

educational attainment was a high 

school credential, $50,000 for 

those whose highest education was 

a bachelor’s degree, and $64,100 

for those with a master’s degree or 

higher (McFarland et al. 2018).

While education level is associated 

with higher earnings and higher 

rates of employment, the occupation 

workers pursue is also related to 

earnings (Carnevale and Cheah 

2018). Regardless of educational 

attainment, earnings vary 

widely across occupational fields 

(Carnevale, Rose, and Cheah 2013). 

For example, among 2007–08 

bachelor’s degree recipients who 

were employed full-time in 2012, 

the yearly median salary was 

$45,000; however, this salary varied 

by occupational field. Bachelor’s 

degree recipients employed in 

science, technology, engineering, 

and mathematics (STEM) fields had 

the highest median yearly earnings 

at $61,000, while bachelor’s degree 

recipients employed in business 

support or administrative assistance 

had the lowest median yearly 

earnings at $34,500 (Cataldi, Staklis, 

and Woo 2018).

Research suggests that work values 

and the importance of different 

work styles are tied to the current 

economic environment, family 

economic resources, and life 

stage. For example, an uncertain 

economic climate may accompany 

preferences for greater job security 

and a preference for high income 

may accompany a life stage with 

significant family responsibilities 

(Kalleberg and Marsden 2019). 

Individual preferences for work 

styles and non-material benefits also 

can vary by occupation and industry. 

When asked to rate the importance 

of achievement, independence, 

relationships, and support at work, 

STEM and healthcare workers valued 
 2 

achievement and independence 

equally, but healthcare workers 

valued relationships and support 

more than STEM workers (Carnevale 

et al. 2012). 

The analyses presented in this 

Brief fill a gap in the literature by 

providing information on young 

adults’ expectations about their 

future earnings and work values. 

Understanding young adults’ 

expectations for salary, the highest 

level of education they expect to 

complete, and their work-style 

preferences (on a team, as a leader, 

autonomy, work-life balance) by 

expected job industry can help high 

school and college counselors and 

educators prepare students for the 

workforce and can help employers 

better attract and recruit their 

employees of the future. 

Data, Methods, 

and Structure of 

the Report

This Statistics in Brief presents data 

from the High School Longitudinal 

Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second 

Follow-up, which was conducted 

in 2016. HSLS:09 is a nationally 

representative, longitudinal study of 

high school freshmen in the U.S. in 

2009. Sample members participated 

in data collection activities in 2009, 

2012, 2013, and 2016.1

 The data 

collection in 2016 included a sample 

member survey and was followed 

in 2017–18 by an administrative 

collection of information from 

student financial aid records and 

postsecondary transcripts. 

1

 Data collection continued until January 31, 

2017, but the majority of responses was collected 

in 2016. 

The Second Follow-up conducted 

in 2016 emphasized the transition 

of the cohort to postsecondary 

education—both baccalaureate 

and subbaccalaureate—and the 

workforce. At that point in time, 

most sample members were 

around 21 or 22 years old. Sample 

members responded to questions 

about their educational attainment 

expectations, what job they 

expected to have at age 30, their 

expected yearly earnings at age 30, 

and the importance of factors other 

than salary when considering a job. 

Most sample members will be 

30 years old in or around 2025. 

The analyses presented in this 

report are limited to the 98 percent 

of sample members in 2016 who 

planned to work at age 30, whether 

or not they reported an occupation 

they expected to have at that age. 

Figure 1 shows the percentages 

of the cohort that planned to be 

working at age 30 and if they had 

a planned occupation. Excluding 

those not planning to be working 

at age 30 did not change the results 

presented in this report. 

The comparisons highlighted in 

the text are statistically significant 

at the p < .05 level to ensure that 

the differences were larger than 

might be expected due to sampling 

variation. No adjustments were 

made for multiple comparisons. For 

additional information about the 

variables, data, or methods used in 

this study, see the Methodology and 

Technical Notes at the end of the 

report. 

63%

36%

Specified an expected occupation at age 30

Don’t know

Not planning to work at age 30

2%

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High 

School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second Follow-Up.

FIGURE 1. Percentage distribution of 2009 ninth-graders, by 2016 

expected occupation at age 30
 3 

STUDY QUESTIONS

1 For the 2009 ninth-grade cohort, 

what were their highest educational 

attainment expectations in 2016? 

What were their occupational and 

earning expectations for when they 

turn 30?

2 How did 2009 ninth-graders in 

2016 rate the importance of various 

aspects of a job compared to 

earnings when choosing a job? 

Key Findings

• Some 60 percent of 2009 ninthgraders in 2016 expected to earn 

a bachelor’s degree or higher 

(figure 2).

• In 2016, the majority of 2009 

ninth-graders (64 percent) 

specified a job they planned 

to have at age 30. The most 

common industries for planned 

jobs were healthcare (16 percent) 

and business and management 

(11 percent) (figure 3). 

• Overall, the median expected 

yearly earnings at age 30 for 

2009 ninth-graders in 2016 

was $60,000. Expected yearly 

earnings at age 30 were higher 

among those who expected 

to complete higher levels of 

education. Those who thought 

they would obtain a high school 

diploma or less education 

expected their yearly earnings 

to be $40,000, while those 

who thought they would earn 

more than a bachelor’s degree 

expected their yearly earnings 

to be $70,000 (figure 4).

• In 2016, 2009 ninth-graders 

who planned to work in a STEM 

career field expected to make 

$75,000 a year at age 30 and 

those who planned to work in 

the service industry expected to 

make $40,000 a year at age 30 

(figure 5). 

• Approximately half of 2009 

ninth-graders in 2016 rated 

aspects of a job such as job 

security, contributing to society, 

and working with a team, among 

others, as equally important to 

salary (figure 6). 

• The two aspects of a job with the 

greatest percentages of cohort 

members rating them as more 

important than salary were job 

security and balancing work and 

personal life (figure 6). 

• Approximately half of cohort 

members said job security is 

more important than salary, 

with the exception of those 

who planned to go into arts and 

entertainment (35 percent), 

service (43 percent), other 

occupations (42 percent), and 

those who did not know their 

expected occupation 

(38 percent) (figure 7).

• Approximately 40 percent or 

more of 2009 ninth-graders 

who planned in 2016 to have a 

job in education, the military 

or protective services, the 

service industry, or healthcare 

industries rated contributing to 

society as more important than 

salary (figure 8). 

• There were differences in 

responses of 2009 ninth-graders 

around valuing teamwork as 

more or less important than 

salary based on their expected 

career field: 32 percent of those 

planning to go into military 

or protective services rated 

teamwork as more important 

than salary compared to 

13 percent of those planning to 

go into a STEM field (figure 9). 
 4 

1 For the 2009 ninth-grade cohort, what were their highest 

educational attainment expectations in 2016? What were 

their occupational and earning expectations for when they 

turn 30?

Ninth graders in fall of 2009 were 

typically 21 or 22 years old by 2016. 

In 2016, about 69 percent of the 

cohort expected to complete a 

postsecondary credential, including 

60 percent who expected to earn a 

bachelor’s or higher degree. Another 

7 percent did not think their 

education would extend past high 

school and 13 percent were not sure 

what their highest level of education 

would ultimately be (figure 2).

Cohort members were also asked, 

“As things stand now, what is the 

job or occupation that you expect 

or plan to have at age 30?” The jobs 

that they reported were classified 

into different career fields using a 

standard occupational classification 

system (see the Technical notes 

for more information on this 

classification). The percentage 

reporting “don’t know” (36 percent) 

was twice as high as the next largest 

reported career field, healthcare, at 

16 percent followed by business and 

management at 11 percent (figure 3). 

Eight percent of cohort members 

planned to have a job in a STEM 

field, 7 percent in the trades or 

technical industry, and 5 percent 

planned to have a job in each of 

the following industries: service, 

education, and other industries. 

Four percent planned to have 

a job in military and protective 

services and 4 percent in arts and 

entertainment. 

FIGURE 2. Percentage distribution of 2009 ninth-graders, by 2016 highest 

level of education expected

High school

diploma,

equivalent, or less

Some

college

Highest level of education expected

Associate’s

degree

Bachelor’s

degree

More than

a bachelor’s

degree

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent

7 11 9

61

46

Don’t

know

29 31

13

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High 

School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second Follow-Up.

FIGURE 3. Percentage distribution of 2009 ninth-graders, by 2016 

planned job industry at age 30

Percent

0

Military and protective services

Healthcare

Education

Business and management

Arts and entertainment

Job industry

Don’t know

Other

Trades and technical

STEM

Service

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

4

11

5

16

4

5

8

7

5

36

NOTE: Arts and entertainment includes arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media 

occupations. Education includes teaching, education, training, and library occupations. 

Healthcare includes healthcare practitioners and technical and healthcare support. Service 

includes food preparation and serving-related occupations, personal care and service, and 

community and social services. STEM refers to science, technology, engineering, and 

mathematics and includes computer and mathematical architecture and engineering, and 

life/physical/social science occupations. Trades and technical includes installation, 

maintenance, and repair; production; transportation and material moving; farming, 

fishing, and forestry; and construction and extraction. Other includes legal occupations, 

building/grounds cleaning and maintenance, sales and related occupations, and office and 

administrative support occupations. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High 

School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second Follow-Up.
 5 

FIGURE 4. Median expected yearly earnings at age 30 of 2009 ninth-graders, by 2016 highest level of education expected

High school

diploma,

equivalent, or less

Some

college

Highest level of education expected

Associate’s

degree

Bachelor’s

degree

More than a

bachelor’s degree

$0

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Expected

earnings

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000 $49,000

$60,000

$70,000

Don’t

know

$50,000

$60,000

Median

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second 

Follow-Up.

According to data from the Census 

Bureau, the actual median yearly 

earnings of young adults ages 25 to 

34 was $40,000 in 20162

 (McFarland 

et al. 2018). Members of the ninthgrade cohort of 2009 were asked in 

2016 what they expected their yearly 

earnings were going to be by the 

time they were 30. 

2

 Assuming a constant inflation rate of 2.5 

percent, $40,000 in 2016 will be approximately 

$50,000 in 2025 or 2026. 

For most of the cohort, this would 

be in 2025 or 2026. The median 

expected yearly earnings were 

$60,000 (figure 4). 

Earnings expectations varied by 

educational and occupational 

expectations. For the most part, 

those expecting to earn a high 

school diploma or less had the 

lowest annual earning expectations 

for when they were 30, with a 

median of $40,000. This was 

lower than expected earnings for 

cohort members who did not know 

how much education they would 

ultimately obtain, and was 

57 percent of the expected earnings 

of those planning on obtaining 

postbaccalaureate degrees (whose 

median expected earnings at age 

30 were $70,000).
 6 

FIGURE 5. Median expected yearly earnings at age 30 of 2009 ninth-graders, by 2016 planned job industry at age 30

Arts and

entertainment

Business 

and

management

Job industry

Education Healthcare Military and

protective

services

$0

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Expected

earnings

61

46

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$56,000

$70,000

$45,000

$60,000

$50,000

Service

$75,000

$60,000

Median

STEM Trades

and

technical

Other Don’t

know

$60,000

$50,000

$40,000

$56,000

NOTE: Arts and entertainment includes arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations. Education includes teaching, education, 

training, and library occupations. Healthcare includes healthcare practitioners and technical and healthcare support. Service includes food 

preparation and serving-related occupations, personal care and service, and community and social services. STEM refers to science, technology, 

engineering, and mathematics and includes computer and mathematical architecture and engineering, and life/physical/social science 

occupations. Trades and technical includes installation, maintenance, and repair; production; transportation and material moving; farming, 

fishing, and forestry; and construction and extraction. Other includes legal occupations, building/grounds cleaning and maintenance, sales and 

related occupations, and office and administrative support occupations. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second 

Follow-Up.

Cohort expectations for annual 

income at age 30 had similar 

variation by expected career field as 

for educational attainment, ranging 

from a low of $40,000 to a high of 

$75,000. Those expecting to work in 

the service industry and education 

had the lowest income expectations 

at $40,000 and $45,000, 

respectively, approximately half 

of the salary expected by those 

planning to go into STEM careers 

($75,000). The other career field 

where expectations were higher 

than the median was among cohort 

members planning to go into 

business and management fields 

where median annual earnings were 

expected to be $70,000 (figure 5).
 7 

2 How did 2009 ninth-graders in 2016 rate the importance 

of various aspects of a job compared to earnings when 

choosing a job?

The high school freshman class of 

2009−10 were 21 or 22 years old 

in 2016. At this point, they were 

asked to rate the importance of six 

aspects of a job compared to salary 

when choosing an occupation: 

contributing to society, autonomy 

in deciding how to get work done, 

geographic location, job security, 

work/personal life balance, and 

working with a team. 

Over half of 2009 ninth-graders 

(between 52 and 59 percent) rated 

each aspect of a job as equally as 

important as salary (figure 6) in 

2016.

More than twice as many cohort 

members in 2016 rated job security 

and balancing work and personal 

life as more important than salary 

compared to those who rated 

geographic location or working 

on a team as more important than 

salary (44 percent and 39 percent, 

respectively, versus 18 and 

17 percent, respectively).

Three aspects of future jobs were 

selected for additional consideration 

by expected career field and 

comparable importance of salary: 

job security, contributing to society, 

and working with a team. These 

three considerations of aspects of 

a job were selected because they 

include a range of values on the 

importance of salary (figure 6). 

FIGURE 6. Ratings of importance of selected aspects of a job compared to salary among 2009 ninth-graders in 2016

0 20 40 60 80

Geographic location

Autonomy

Contributing to society

Balancing work and personal life

Job security

Aspects of a job

61

46

Working with a team

100

More important than salary Equally as important as salary Less important than salary

44 52 4

39 55 6

33 52 15

28 59 13

18 52 29

17 54 29

Percent

Note: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second 

Follow-Up.
 8 

FIGURE 7. Importance of job security compared to salary, by 2016 planned job industry at age 30 of 2009 

ninth-graders

0 20 40 60 80

Military and protective services

Healthcare

Education

Business and management

Arts and entertainment

Don’t know

100

More important than salary Equally as important as salary Less important than salary

35 58 7

Other

Trades and technical

STEM

Service

50 46 4

50 48 1!

50 48 3

51 46 4!

43 53 4

49 46 5

48 48 4

42 54 4

38 58 4

Job industry

Percent

! Interpret data with caution. Estimate is unstable because the standard error represents more than 30 percent of the estimate.

NOTE: Arts and entertainment includes arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations. Education includes teaching, education, 

training, and library occupations. Healthcare includes healthcare practitioners and technical and healthcare support. Service includes food 

preparation and serving-related occupations, personal care and service, and community and social services. STEM refers to science, technology, 

engineering, and mathematics and includes computer and mathematical architecture and engineering, and life/physical/social science 

occupations. Trades and technical includes installation, maintenance, and repair; production; transportation and material moving; farming, 

fishing, and forestry; and construction and extraction. Other includes legal occupations; building/grounds cleaning and maintenance; sales and 

related occupations; and office and administrative support occupations. Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second 

Follow-Up.

Across all occupational categories, 

at least 93 percent of young adults 

who were ninth-graders in 2009 said 

job security was equally or more 

important than salary (figure 7) 

when asked about this in 2016.

Approximately half of 2009 ninthgraders in 2016 who planned 

to pursue a job in business and 

management (50 percent), education 

(50 percent), healthcare 

(50 percent), military and protective 

services (51 percent), STEM fields 

(49 percent), or trades and technical 

occupations (48 percent) rated job 

security as more important than 

salary (figure 7). 

Among all career fields considered, 

those planning on going into arts 

and entertainment by age 30 had the 

lowest percentage prioritizing job 

security over salary (35 percent).
 9 

FIGURE 8. Importance of contributing to society compared to salary, by 2016 planned job industry at age 30 of 2009 

ninth-graders

0 20 40 60 80

Military and protective services

Healthcare

Education

Business and management

Arts and entertainment

Don’t know

100

More important than salary Equally as important as salary Less important than salary

37 50 13

Other

Trades and technical

STEM

Service

30 52 18

64 33

43 50 7

46 47 7

45 47 8

36 46 18

22 56 22

28 56 16

24 58 19

3

Job industry

Percent

NOTE: Arts and entertainment includes arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations. Education includes teaching, education, 

training, and library occupations. Healthcare includes healthcare practitioners and technical and healthcare support. Service includes food 

preparation and serving-related occupations, personal care and service, and community and social services. STEM refers to science, technology, 

engineering, and mathematics and includes computer and mathematical architecture and engineering, and life/physical/social science 

occupations. Trades and technical includes installation, maintenance, and repair; production; transportation and material moving; farming, 

fishing, and forestry; and construction and extraction. Other includes legal occupations, building/grounds cleaning and maintenance, sales and 

related occupations, and office and administrative support occupations. Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second 

Follow-Up. 

Overall, one-third of 2009 ninthgraders in 2016 (33 percent) said 

that contributing to society was 

more important than salary 

(figure 6). The percentage of 2009 

ninth-graders in 2016 who rated 

contributing to society as more 

important than salary ranged from 

a low of 22 percent for young adults 

who expected to work in trades and 

technical occupations to a high of 

64 percent for young adults who 

expected to work in education 

(figure 8).

Cohort members planning on going 

into education at age 30 were the 

only group where more than half 

of the respondents prioritized 

contributing to society over salary. 

Cohort members planning on 

going into healthcare, military and 

protective services, and service 

careers prioritized contributing to 

society over salary at rates of 

43 to 46 percent. Young adults from 

the cohort considering business, 

trades and technical, or other job 

industries prioritized contributing to 

society over salary at rates below 

40 percent.
 10 

Recall from figure 6 that 17 percent 

of cohort members in 2016 said 

working with a team was more 

important than salary, and 

29 percent said it was less important 

than salary. 

About a third (32 percent) of cohort 

members who planned to have a 

career in military or protective 

services at age 30 prioritized 

working with a team over salary 

considerations. Those planning 

on working in education or in the 

trades and technical fields at age 30 

prioritized working on teams over 

salary considerations at 20 and 24 

percent rates, respectively (figure 9).

0 20 40 60 80

Military and protective services

Healthcare

Education

Business and management

Arts and entertainment

Don’t know

100

More important than salary Equally as important as salary Less important than salary

18 51 31

Other

Trades and technical

STEM

Service

18 52 29

20 49

18 56 25

32 48 20

19 53 28

13 49 38

24 53 24

16 53 31

12 57 30

31

Job industry

Percent

FIGURE 9. Importance of working with a team compared to salary, by 2016 planned job industry at age 30 of 2009 

ninth-graders

NOTE: Arts and entertainment includes arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations. Education includes teaching, education, 

training, and library occupations. Healthcare includes healthcare practitioners and technical and healthcare support. Service includes food 

preparation and serving-related occupations, personal care and service, and community and social services. STEM refers to science, technology, 

engineering, and mathematics and includes computer and mathematical architecture and engineering, and life/physical/social science 

technicians. Trades and technical includes installation, maintenance, and repair; production; transportation and material moving; farming, 

fishing, and forestry; and construction and extraction. Other includes legal occupations, building/grounds cleaning and maintenance, sales and 

related occupations, and office and administrative support occupations. Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09) Second 

Follow-Up.
 11 

FIND OUT MORE

For questions about content, to download this Statistics in Brief, or to view it online, go to

https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2021056

More detailed information on 2009 ninthgraders produced by the National Center 

for Education Statistics (NCES) using the 

High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 

can be found in the following publications:

Data Point—Parent and Student Expectations of Highest 

Education Level (NCES 2019-015). 

https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2019/2019015.pdf

First Look—High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 

(HSLS:09) Second Follow–Up: A First Look at Fall 2009 

Ninth-Graders in 2016 (NCES 2018-139). 

https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2018/2018139.pdf

Stats in Brief—Ninth-Graders’ Mathematics Coursetaking, 

Motivations, and Educational Plans (NCES 2015-990). 

https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2015/2015990.pdf

Stats in Brief—What High Schoolers and Their Parents Know 

About Public 4-Year Tuition and Fees in Their State

(NCES 2019-404). 

https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2019/2019404.pdf
 12 

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