### EEIRWSTD 

## *'73 

# K K
Site BuiltHousing - 

# Typical Cost of Heat Pumps
Capacity (tons) HSPF SEER Low High Low High 2.5 7.5 10 $ 3,400 $ 3,700 3.0 7.5 10 $ 3,600 $ 3,900 3.5 7.5 10 $ 3,750 $ 4,150 4.0 7.5 10 $ 4,000 $ 4,450 2.5 8 12 $ 3,600 $ 3,800 $ 200 $ 100 3.0 8 12 $ 3,800 $ 4,100 $ 200 $ 200 3.5 8 12 $ 4,100 $ 4,400 $ 350 $ 250 4.0 8 12 $ 4,400 $ 4,800 $ 400 $ 350 w> Northwest

____ ___ ___ ___ ____ ___ ___ ___ ____ ___ ___ ___ f ~ Power Planning =K^S5!!i~~~~~m^Si __ afiCouncil 11116/00 1



# New Manufactured Housing- 

# Typical Cost ofHeat Pumps

Installed Capacity Installed Cost Capacity Cost Incremental Cost 3-Ton $ 2,275 3-Ton $ 2,700 S 425 3.5-Ton $ 2,400 3.5-Ton $ 2,850 $ 450 4-Ton $ 2,600 4-Ton $ 3,235 $ 635

Northwest Power Planning Byiigiu S1 ~ Council 11/16/00 2 Page 1 1 

### EE-RM/STD-18-440



## Site Built Housing - Typical Cost 

## of Heat Pumps**~Northwest**

# I~===============~power Planning Ii'" _:::::::iiii1118Council 1

11/16/00



## New Manufactured Housing - Typical Cost 

## of Heat Pumps

# I~===============**~Northwest** Ii'";;;;;**~** Power Planning

11/16/00 :::::::iiiiIII8Council 2 Pagel

# *'7~ 

# KK

1

### EE-RM/STD-98.440 $73 

# Peak LoadAre Growing Faster Than Average Energy Use * Between 1995 and 1999 WSCC Peak Loads increased by nearly 12,000 MW (nearly 10%/year) while energy used only increased 65,000 GWH (about 2.3%/year) a 

### The most rapid growth in the WSCC between 1995 and 1999 occurred in the Arizona, New Mexico and Southern Nevada area:

-Area accounted for only 12% of summer peak loads in 1995 -Area accounted for 47% of the growth between 1995

and 1999 Northwest 11/16/00:_______.__........E_ Power Planning

. ....-.---.--. :-: - ~_.Co unc il 11116/00



# Summer Peak Load Growth in the NW Power Pool Reduces Hydro Exports * The NW Power Pool is a winter peaking area, however between 1995 and 1999 its summer peak grew by 3,900 MW * Increases in NW Power Pool summer peaking demand will gradually eliminate its ability to export lower cost hydro-electricity to other areas in the WSCC. * This is expected to increase on peak electricity prices in these other areas.

- On two days with nearly identical peak loads, CA prices in 2000 hit $750/MWH (price cap) vs just over $150/MWH in 1999

- NWPP exports were 3000 MW less in 2000 than 1999 Northwest -_S'iS^^^ ..... Council 11/16/00 

### Page 2 2

## EE.RM/STD.98-44~73_kk



## Peak LoadAre Growing Faster Than A verage Energy Use

.. Between 1995 and 1999 WSCC Peak Loads increased by nearly 12,000 MW (nearly 10%/year) while energy used only increased 65,000 GWH ( about 2.3%/year)

.. The most rapid growth in the WSCC between 1995 and 1999 occurred in the Arizona, New Mexico and Southern Nevada area:

- Area accounted for only 12% of summer peak loads in 1995

- Area accounted for 47% of the growth between 1995

and 1999 !!!;S: Northwest

## I~===============**~Power** Planning !iii**~Council**

11116/00 3



## Summer Peak Load Growth in the NW Power Pool Reduces Hydro Exports

.. The NW Power Pool is a winter peaking area, however between 1995 and 1999 its summer peak grew by 3,900 MW

.. Increases in NW Power Pool summer peaking demand will gradually eliminate its ability to export lower cost hydro-electricity to other areas in the WSCC
.

.. This is expected to increase on peak electricity prices in these other areas.

- On two days with nearly identical peak loads, CA prices in 2000 hit $750/MWH (price cap) vs just over $150/MWH in 1999

- NWPP exports were 3000 MW less in 2000 than 1999**~Northwest** 

# 1=::::;:;;:============= ::::;:;;:::::Power Planning Ii'"**~Council**

11/16/00 4 

### Page 2 2

### EE-RM/STD-98-440 : 

## 1 '
-


## Air ConditioningLoads Are Dramatically Increasing West Coast Power Prices

Wholesale Power Prices 1996 - 2000 Md-Columbia Trading Hub

S $10 - tinnn-i-- t

$1

Date ,--6
--- 97 -- 98 g -*-21 B Northwest

.................................................aa.. Power Planning

_. Council 11/16100 5



# ImplicationsforAir ConditioningRule Making * Summer peaking uses of electricity (i.e. air conditioning) are expected to drive retail electricity prices upward throughout the West due to low "load factors" a Either average retail electricity rates must increase or greater "seasonality" in retail rates must occur to cover cost * Recommendations

- DOE should adjust 1997 average energy prices to 

### reflect summer/winter differentials in wholesale electric prices

- EER requirement is critically needed & justified 11 Northwest 11/16/00____________________'_ =. Power Planning 1 1/16/00 6 Page 3 3 

# ,**1n~J<k** EE-RM/STD-98-440"'r ,-J •



### Air Conditioning Loads Are Dramatically Increasing West Coast Power Prices

Wholesale Power Prices 1996 - 2000@ r.IId-Columbla Trading Hub S1,(XXl 

### * J 

# -- L % 5100 

## n N 1 

### I \.A 

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... 510**~ .I.,"""",~~** **......J.x.Pibr~ .~~** **~ ~Northwest** 

## I~=====**~==5========= ~Power**  Planning 18;;;;;**~** Council 5 

## Implications forAir Conditioning Rule Making CI Summer peaking uses of electricity (i.e. air conditioning) are expected to drive retail electricity prices upward throughout the West due to low "load factors" • Either average retail electricity rates must increase or greater "seasonality" in retail rates must occur to cover cost • Recommendations

- DOE should adjust 1997 average energy prices to reflect summer/winter differentials in wholesale electric prices

- EER requirement is critically needed &justified**~Northwest**

## I=-~~:;:===============**~Power** Planning pi**~Council**

11/16/00 6 

### Page 3 3^**r 

### Ala a 

### * s ;'iJ' -sEE-RM/STD-98-4 4 0 -- LI 'LI 

# Reduced Carbon Emissions from Standards are Underestimated * Reduction in air conditioning demand will result in highest variable cost generating plants being such down * Highest variable cost generating plant in system are usually those with the worst "heat rates" & emissions * Preliminary results of Council modeling of West Coast system impacts of standard reveal plants "decremented" by reduction in summer peaking use had higher emissions than average plants in WSCC * Recommendation: If final results confirm findings, DOE should adjust NES estimates of carbon emissions Northwest _______u ____ _____ ______ _____ ___e__ ___ _ P Pow er Planning 11/16/00______________________________________'Council 11/16/00 7

Page 4 4

### EE-RM/STD-98-440~ 

## II 

# '73-J<J< . Reduced Carbon Emissions from Standards are Underestimated
• Reduction in air conditioning demand will result in highest variable cost generating plants being such down • Highest variable cost generating plant in system are usually those with the worst "heat rates" 

### & emissions • Preliminary results of Council modeling ofWest Coast system impacts of standard reveal plants "decremented" by reduction in summer peaking use had higher emissions than a.verage plants in WSCC • Recommendation: If final results confirm findings, DOE should adjust NES estimates of carbon emissions 

## !!#:::::: Northwest

### ~===5!!!!====**~Power** Planning ;;; ..**~Counc11** 7



### Page 4 4

### EE-RM/STD-98-440.- 

# 23- K< 

# Air ConditioningLoads Are Dramatically Increasing West Coast Power Prices

Wholesale Power Prices 1996 - 2000 @ Mid-Columbia Trading Hub $1,000

^$10
$1 , l l .. . . ...... Date

--- 96 -97
--- 98 -*-99 *--2000 1 N 

## Northwest

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# Planning

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# Air Conditioning Loads Are Dramatically Increasing West Coast Power Prices

Wholesale Power Prices 1996 - 2000 @ Mid-Columbia Trading Hub

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# I 11/16/00