Community College

Students

Goals, Academic Preparation,

and Outcomes

Postsecondary Education

Descriptive Analysis Reports U.S. Department of Education

Institute of Education Sciences

NCES 2003–164
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U.S. Department of Education 

Institute of Education Sciences 

NCES 2003–164 

Community College 

Students 

Goals, Academic Preparation, 

and Outcomes 

Postsecondary Education 

Descriptive Analysis Reports 

June 2003 

Gary Hoachlander 

Anna C. Sikora 

Laura Horn 

MPR Associates, Inc. 

C. Dennis Carroll 

Project Officer 

National Center for 

Education Statistics 
U.S. Department of Education 

Rod Paige 

Secretary 

Institute of Education Sciences 

Grover J. Whitehurst 

Director 

National Center for Education Statistics 

Val Plisko 

Associate Commissioner 

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and 

reporting data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate 

to collect, collate, analyze, and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United 

States; conduct and publish reports and specialized analyses of the meaning and significance of such 

statistics; assist state and local education agencies in improving their statistical systems; and review and report 

on education activities in foreign countries. 

NCES activities are designed to address high priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, 

complete, and accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high quality 

data to the U.S. Department of Education, the Congress, the states, other education policymakers, 

practitioners, data users, and the general public. 

We strive to make our products available in a variety of formats and in language that is appropriate to a 

variety of audiences. You, as our customer, are the best judge of our success in communicating information 

effectively. If you have any comments or suggestions about this or any other NCES product or report, we would 

like to hear from you. Please direct your comments to: 

 National Center for Education Statistics 

 Institute of Education Sciences 

 U.S. Department of Education 

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 Washington, DC 20006–5651 

June 2003 

The NCES World Wide Web Home Page is: http://nces.ed.gov

The NCES World Wide Web Electronic Catalog is: http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch

Suggested Citation 

U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Community College Students: Goals, 

Academic Preparation, and Outcomes, NCES 2003–164, by Gary Hoachlander, Anna C. Sikora, and Laura 

Horn. Project Officer: C. Dennis Carroll. Washington, DC: 2003. 

For ordering information on this report, write: 

U.S. Department of Education 

ED Pubs 

P.O. Box 1398 

Jessup, MD 20794–1398 

or call toll free 1–877–4ED–PUBS; or order online at http://www.edpubs.org

Content Contact: 

Aurora D’Amico 

(202) 502–7334 

Aurora.D’Amico@ed.gov
iii 

Executive Summary 

In 1999–2000, 42 percent of all undergraduates 

were enrolled at public 2-year institutions, 

commonly known as community colleges (Horn, 

Peter, and Rooney 2002). The lower fees and 

open-access policies at community colleges have 

broadened access to postsecondary education for 

students facing such barriers to entry as poor 

academic performance in high school, limited 

English-language skills or other basic skill 

deficiencies, or financial hardship (Grubb 1999). 

Community colleges also serve students seeking 

additional job skills, technical certification, and 

enrichment opportunities. However, while access 

to community colleges is easily attained, research 

has shown that a significant number of students 

who enter community colleges do not complete a 

formal credential (Berkner, Horn, and Clune 

2000). 

Currently, federal performance measures, as 

reflected in the Higher Education Act and the Carl 

D. Perkins Vocational and Technical Education 

Act, have been primarily limited to completion of 

formal credentials such as certificates and 

associate’s degrees. However, because community 

colleges serve students with a wide range of goals 

and academic preparation (Berkner, Horn, and 

Clune 2000), holding community colleges 

accountable only for student attainment may 

understate their effectiveness in meeting a variety 

of objectives. This report provides information on 

the varying goals, preparation, and outcomes of 

community college students. 

This report uses data from the 1996/01 

Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal 

Study (BPS:96/01), the National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88/2000), and 

the 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student 

Aid Study (NPSAS:2000). Each data set provides 

a different perspective on the major questions of 

the analysis. BPS is a representative sample of all 

undergraduates, regardless of when they graduated 

from high school, who enrolled in postsecondary 

education for the first time in 1995–96 and were 

last interviewed in 2001, about 6 years later. This 

survey provides the latest data on degree 

attainment and persistence, as well as 4-year 

college transfer rates and outcomes. The analysis 

sample used in this report is limited to BPS 

students whose first postsecondary enrollment was 

in a community college. 

The NELS survey comprises a grade cohort, 

which means all respondents are in one grade or 

are about the same age. NELS respondents were 

first surveyed in 1988 when they were in the 

eighth grade, and were followed through high 

school and college. They were last interviewed in 

2000, about 8 years after most of the participants 

had graduated from high school. Unlike the BPS 

cohort, which includes first-time students 

regardless of age, the NELS cohort reflects a more 

“traditional” group of students—those who enroll 

in postsecondary education soon after high school 

graduation. In the analysis for this report, only 

1992 high school graduates who first enrolled in a 

community college within 2 years of high school 

graduation are included. NELS provides several 

measures of high school academic preparation to 

determine how students’ academic performance is 

associated with their college outcomes. 
Executive Summary 

iv 

Finally, the NPSAS survey consists of a 

representative sample of all students enrolled in 

postsecondary education at one point in time—the 

1999–2000 academic year—including students of 

all ages as well as students who entered 

postsecondary education at various points in time 

and who are at different stages of their studies. 

NPSAS is used to examine the degree objectives 

of first-time and continuing community college 

students enrolled in 1999–2000. Drawing upon 

these three data sets, this study addresses the 

following research questions: 

1. What percentage of students enrolled in 

community colleges seeks to complete a 

formal credential, either in a public 2-year 

institution or through transfer to a 4-year 

college or university? 

2. How do different types of community 

college students differ in their intentions to 

complete a formal credential? 

3. Among those intending to complete a 

certificate or degree or transfer to a 4-year 

institution, what percentage actually do so, 

and how do rates of completion vary 

among different types of students? 

4. Among students intending to complete a 

formal credential, what is the relationship 

between rates of completion and different 

levels of postsecondary preparedness? 

5. When students are asked about the impact 

of their postsecondary education on various 

aspects of their labor market participation, 

how do the responses of students who 

completed a formal credential differ from 

those of students who left without a 

certificate or degree? 

The findings of this study suggest that success 

rates for community college students, as measured 

by completion of a formal degree or certificate or 

transfer to a 4-year institution, are roughly 50 to 

60 percent among students who enroll with 

intentions to earn a credential or transfer. 

Community College Students 

Seeking Formal Credentials 

Results from all three data sets suggest that 

roughly 9-in-10 community college students enroll 

intending to obtain a formal credential or to 

transfer to a 4-year institution. As shown in figure 

A, among all NPSAS undergraduates enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions in 1999–2000, 11 

percent of first-year students and 10 percent of 

continuing students reported no degree or transfer 

intentions. Similarly, among BPS students who 

first enrolled in public 2-year institutions in 1995–

1996, 11 percent reported no intentions of earning 

a degree or transferring to a 4-year institution 

(figure B). NELS 1992 high school graduates 

were asked what their highest degree expectations 

were when they were in 12th grade. Among those 

who first enrolled in public 2-year institutions, 10 

percent reported that they were not seeking a 

degree and that they expected to complete less 

than 2 years of postsecondary education and 

nearly two-thirds reported that they were seeking a 

bachelor’s degree or higher (figure C). 

Completion and Persistence Rates 

Among Students Seeking Formal 

Credentials 

This study first examined the outcomes of BPS 

students whose first enrollment was in a 

community college. Among students who intended 

to obtain a formal credential or to transfer to a 4-

year institution, 11 percent had attained a 
Executive Summary 

v 

Figure A.—Percentage distribution of 1999–2000 undergraduates in public 2-year institutions according to their current

Figure A.—degree program and when they enrolled

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study

(NPSAS:2000).

11 14

75

10 10

81

0

20

40

60

80

100

No degree Certificate Associate’s degree

Percent

First-year students (enrolled in 1999–2000) Continuing students (enrolled before 1999–2000)

Figure B.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-year

Figure B.—institutions according to their degree/certificate and transfer expectations

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:96/01).

11

40

27 22

0

20

40

60

80

100

No degree/certificate Degree/certificate No degree/certificate Degree/certificate

Percent

27

No Transfer Transfer
Executive Summary 

vi 

Figure C.—Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year institutions by December

Figure C.—1994 according to the highest level of education they expected to complete as reported in 1992

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988

(NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000, Data Analysis System.”

10 10

18

63

0

20

40

60

80

100

No degree, less than 2 years

of postsecondary education

Certificate or 2 or more

years of trade school

Associate’s degree Bachelor’s degree or higher

Percent

bachelor’s degree, 17 percent had earned an 

associate’s degree, and 11 percent had earned a 

certificate as of 2001, for a total attainment rate of 

39 percent (figure D). An additional 12 percent 

had transferred to a 4-year institution but had not 

yet attained a degree. In total, 51 percent of BPS 

community college students who intended to earn 

a degree or to transfer to a 4-year institution had 

fulfilled these expectations within 6 years of their 

initial enrollment. 

The study then examined NELS students, who 

represent more traditional students who enroll in a 

community college soon after high school 

graduation. As shown in figure E, among students 

who intended to obtain a degree, 21 percent had 

attained a bachelor’s degree or higher, 18 percent 

had attained an associate’s degree, and 11 percent 

had earned a vocational certificate or license as of 

2000 (6 to 8 years after entry), for a total 

attainment rate of 50 percent. An additional 13 

percent had not attained a formal credential but 

had attended a 4-year institution. Thus, in total, 

about 63 percent of students intending to obtain a 

formal credential had either done so or had 

attended a 4-year institution. 

Time to Degree 

About two-thirds of all community college 

students attend primarily on a part-time basis 

(Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000). Therefore, it 

takes them longer to complete associate’s and 

bachelor’s degrees than the typical time 

expected—2 years and 4 years, respectively, of 

full-time study. The length of certificate programs 

varies, but they are typically 1-year full-time 

programs (Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000). 

Among BPS students, the average time from first 

enrollment to attainment for students who had 

attained an associate’s degree as their highest 

credential (16 percent of all students) was about 3 

1/2 years (41 months). Students who had 

completed a certificate (10 percent of all students)
Executive Summary 

vii 

Figure D.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-year

Figure D.—institutions who intended to obtain a credential according to highest postsecondary education attained

Figure D.—by 2001

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:96/01).

11

17

11

39

12

51

0

20

40

60

80

100

Attained

bachelor’s degree

or higher

Attained

associate’s degree

Attained certificate Total attained No degree attained,

ever attended

4-year institution

Total attained or

ever attended

4-year institution

Percent

Figure E.—Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year institutions by

Figure E.—December 1994 who intended to obtain a credential according to highest postsecondary education attained

Figure E.—by 2000

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988

(NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000, Data Analysis System.”

21 18

11

50

13

63

0

20

40

60

80

100

Attained

bachelor’s degree

or higher

Attained

associate’s degree

Attained

certificate

Total attained No degree

attained, ever

attended

4-year institution

Total attained or

ever attended

4-year institution

Percent
Executive Summary 

viii 

took an average of about 2 1/2 years to complete 

their program. Students who had completed a 

bachelor’s degree within the 6 years of the survey 

period (10 percent of all students) took nearly 5 

years (56 months) to complete the degree. 

However, about 8 percent of BPS community 

college students, or roughly 44 percent of those in 

bachelor’s degree programs, were still enrolled in 

a 4-year institution and had not yet completed a 

degree. These students required more than 6 years 

to complete their bachelor’s degrees. 

Transfer Students 

An analysis of the rates at which BPS 

community college students transferred to 4-year 

institutions revealed that a total of about 29 

percent had transferred. Among students who had 

reported bachelor’s degree intentions when they 

first enrolled, 51 percent had transferred. Among 

those who had transferred, about 8-in-10 had 

either attained a bachelor’s degree (35 percent) or 

were still enrolled in a 4-year institution (44 

percent) as of 2001 (figure F). Moreover, 

community college students with bachelor’s 

degree intentions were not likely to earn an 

associate’s degree before transferring. Among 

transfers, roughly one-fifth of bachelor’s degree 

seekers, had earned an associate’s degree before 

transferring. 

Completion Rates and Postsecondary 

Preparedness 

Many NELS 1992 high school graduates who 

began their postsecondary education in 

community colleges faced challenging obstacles to 

completing a credential. In 1988, when NELS 

students were in the eighth grade, 39 percent who 

enrolled in community colleges were “at risk” 

(had one or more risk factors) of dropping out of 

high school. In addition, roughly half (54 percent) 

Figure F.—Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-year institutions, the percentage

Figure F.—who transferred to a 4-year institution, and among transfers, the percentage who completed a bachelor’s

Figure F.—degree or were still enrolled as of 2001

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:96/01).

Among transfers

29

35

44

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percent transferred Completed a bachelor’s degree Still enrolled in 4-year institutions

Percent
Executive Summary 

ix 

entered college with one or more characteristics 

that placed them at risk of not completing their 

postsecondary education. (See appendix A for 

details of risk characteristics.) 

Proficiency tests scores also showed that many 

NELS community college students began their 

postsecondary education with relatively low 

ability levels in mathematics and reading. Thirty 

percent of these students entered community 

college with 12th-grade mathematics proficiency 

scores at Level 1 or below. These students could 

perform simple arithmetical operations on whole 

numbers but could not perform simple operations 

on decimals, fractions, powers, or roots. In 

addition, 44 percent of NELS community college 

students enrolled with 12th-grade reading 

proficiency scores at Level 1 or below. These 

students had basic comprehension skills, but they 

could not make relatively simple inferences from 

reading a text beyond the author’s main point. 

While many NELS 1992 high school graduates 

entered community college lacking strong 

academic preparation, about one-third (36 percent) 

were academically qualified to attend a 4-year 

institution. These are students who could possibly 

have enrolled in a 4-year college or university 

based on several measures of academic 

preparation, including SAT scores, rank in high 

school class, NELS achievement tests, and the 

rigor of their course taking. In addition, 17 percent 

and 24 percent, respectively, had scored at the 

highest proficiency levels tested in reading and 

mathematics as seniors in high school. 

Taking into account students’ academic 

profiles, college students who were better 

prepared academically to enter postsecondary 

education tended to complete a certificate or 

degree or attend a 4-year institution more often 

than those who were less prepared. For example, 

among those who scored at the highest proficiency 

level tested in mathematics as seniors in high 

school, about three-quarters had either attained a 

degree or certificate or had enrolled in a 4-year 

institution, compared with roughly half (54 

percent) of those who scored at the lowest levels. 

Similarly, among community college students who 

were academically qualified for enrollment in a 4-

year college, roughly three-quarters had either 

attained a degree (including 36 percent who had 

attained a bachelor’s degree) or had enrolled in a 

4-year institution, compared with 55 percent of 

those who were either not qualified or only 

minimally qualified to attend a 4-year college. 

Community College Completion and 

Employment Outcomes 

BPS community college students who were no 

longer enrolled 3 years after first attending were 

asked several questions about the impact of their 

education on their salary and other employment 

experiences. Earlier research on the BPS survey 

showed that 44 percent of community college 

students had left in 1998 with no credential, while 

about 8 percent had left with a certificate or an 

associate’s degree (Berkner, Horn, and Clune 

2000, table 2.1a). Despite the small percentage of 

completers, there were some obvious differences 

between these students and their peers who had 

not completed with respect to reporting positive 

employment outcomes. As shown in figure G, 63 

percent of those who had attained a formal 

credential by 1998 reported that their 

postsecondary education resulted in salary 

increases, compared with 29 percent who had not 

attained a credential. Similarly, 71 percent of 

those who had attained a credential reported that 

their postsecondary enrollment had led to 

increased job responsibilities, while 48 percent of 

those who had not attained one had reported the 

same.
Executive Summary 

x 

Figure G.—Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-year institutions and who were

Figure G.—no longer enrolled, the percentage who reported their enrollment resulted in a salary increase or improved

Figure G.—their job responsibilities as reported in 1998, by degree attainment

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:96/01).

29

48

63

71

0

20

40

60

80

100

Enrollment improved salary Enrollment improved job responsibilities

Percent

No degree Attained any degree or certificate

NELS students were also asked about their 

employment outcomes when they were last 

interviewed in 2000 (i.e., 6 to 8 years after they 

had begun their postsecondary education). 

Community college students who had earned 

either a certificate or an associate’s degree or had 

transferred to a 4-year institution were more likely 

to report positive employment outcomes than 

those who had left without a credential or had not 

transferred. In addition, community college 

students who had transferred to a 4-year 

institution but had not earned a degree were also 

more likely than those who had left without 

transferring to report positive outcomes. 

Conclusions 

Although educational objectives vary among 

students enrolled in community colleges, most 

community college students say that they desire a 

formal credential, either from the community 

college or through transfer to a 4-year institution. 

Nearly 90 percent of students beginning their 

postsecondary education in public 2-year 

institutions express an intent to attain a certificate 

or degree (including transfer). 

In both the NELS and BPS surveys, roughly 

one-fifth of community college students with any 

degree or transfer intentions had earned an 

associate’s degree. However, when success is 

defined as any degree attainment or 4-year 

transfer, about one-half (51 percent) of all 

community college students (BPS) and nearly 

two-thirds (63 percent) of more traditional 

students (NELS) had achieved successful 

outcomes. 

At the same time, however, because about twothirds of community college students attend 

primarily on a part-time basis, the average amount 

of time to complete an associate’s degree was 

about 3 1/2 years (as measured by BPS). Those 

who earned a certificate took about 2 1/2 years to 

complete the credential, and roughly 44 percent of 

bachelor’s degree seekers were still enrolled after 

6 years. 
 Executive Summary 

xi 

The study also revealed that about 29 percent 

of all first-time community college students 

transferred to a 4-year college or university during 

the 6-year survey period, including about one-half 

of those with bachelor’s degree intentions. For 

those who did transfer, about 8-in-10 had either 

attained a bachelor’s degree or were still working 

toward that degree 6 years after they first enrolled 

in a community college. 

Finally, while many students who had left 

community college without completing a 

credential reported that their postsecondary 

education favorably affected their employment, 

students who had earned a credential were more 

likely to report positive impacts than students who 

had not earned one. 
xii 

Foreword 

This report profiles the goals, preparation, and outcomes of community college students 

using three data sources: the 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study 

(NPSAS:2000), the 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01), 

and the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88/2000), Fourth Follow-up. The 

Data and Terminology section of this report describes these data sets in detail. 

The estimates presented in the report were produced using the NCES Data Analysis System 

(DAS), a software application that allows users to specify and generate tables for the NPSAS, 

BPS, and NELS surveys. The DAS produces the design-adjusted standard errors necessary for 

testing the statistical significance of differences in the estimates. For more information on the 

DAS, consult appendix B of this report. 
xiii 

Acknowledgments 

The authors appreciate the contributions of staff members at MPR Associates, NCES and 

other U.S. Department of Education offices, and nongovernmental agencies to the production of 

this report. At MPR Associates, Inc., Susan Choy contributed substantially to the report, lending 

her extensive knowledge of postsecondary education and policy, as well as her experience with 

the complexities of the surveys that were the basis of the study. Barbara Kridl, Patti Gildersleeve, 

and Francesca Tussing supplied expert assistance in the production of the report. Kathryn 

Rooney and Rachael Berger provided considerable skilled assistance with statistical analysis and 

content development. Andrea Livingston and Ellen Bradburn provided helpful editorial and 

substantive reviews. 

Outside of MPR Associates, Inc., C. Dennis Carroll at NCES oversaw the production and 

development of the report through all stages, providing feedback on all drafts. Paula Knepper 

was the NCES senior technical advisor for the report and Karen O’Conor chaired the 

adjudication panel. The following individuals also reviewed the final report: Lisa Hudson 

(NCES), Jeff Owings (NCES), Jim Palmer (Illinois State University), and Kent Phillipe 

(American Association of Community Colleges). The authors thank all the reviewers for their 

time and helpful feedback. 
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xv 

Table of Contents 

Page 

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. iii 

Foreword.................................................................................................................................... xii 

Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................... xiii 

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. xvii 

List of Figures............................................................................................................................ xix 

Introduction............................................................................................................................... 1 

Data and Terminology .............................................................................................................. 3

Terminology.......................................................................................................................... 4 

Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials.................................................. 7

Student Characteristics.......................................................................................................... 10 

High School Academic Preparation and Risk ........................................................................ 19

Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials ..... 23 

Student Characteristics and Degree Attainment.................................................................... 26 

Completion Plus Transfer to 4-Year Institutions .................................................................. 27 

Transfer Students................................................................................................................... 30 

Time to Degree...................................................................................................................... 31 

Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community 

Colleges....................................................................................................................................... 33 

Postsecondary Outcomes and Academic Preparedness......................................................... 33 

Multivariate Analysis ............................................................................................................ 38 

Completion and Employment Outcomes ................................................................................ 43 

Community College Completion and Employment Outcomes: BPS.................................... 43

Community College Completion or Transfer and Employment Outcomes: NELS .............. 44

Summary and Conclusions....................................................................................................... 47 

References.................................................................................................................................. 49 
Table of Contents 

xvi 

Page 

Appendix A—Glossary ............................................................................................................. 51 

Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology .................................................................. 63 
xvii 

List of Tables 

Table Page 

1 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to their degree expectations, by various student 

characteristics .................................................................................................................. 11 

2 Percentage distribution of 1999–2000 undergraduates who were enrolled in public 

2-year institutions according to their current degree program and when they enrolled, 

by gender and age............................................................................................................ 12 

3 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to their main purpose for enrolling, by various 

student characteristics ..................................................................................................... 13

4 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to their transfer or degree expectation, by various 

student characteristics ..................................................................................................... 15

5 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to their first degree program, by various student 

characteristics .................................................................................................................. 16 

6 Percentage distribution (by columns) of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions by December 1994, by various measures of academic 

performance and risk of attrition..................................................................................... 20 

7a Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to highest degree attained through 2001, by 

various student characteristics......................................................................................... 24 

7b Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to attainment or enrollment in a 4-year institution 

through 2001, by various student characteristics ............................................................ 28 

8 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-

year institutions who transferred to a 4-year institution, and among transfers, degree 

attainment and persistence as of 2001............................................................................. 30 
List of Tables 

xviii 

Table Page 

9a Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year 

institutions by December 1994 according to highest attainment as of 2000, by various 

student characteristics ..................................................................................................... 34

9b Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year 

institutions by December 1994 according to attainment or attendance at 4-year 

institutions as of 2000, by various student characteristics .............................................. 36 

10 Among 1992 high school graduates who first enrolled in a community college by 

December 1994 and who had intentions to earn a formal credential, percentage who 

had attained a degree or attended a 4-year college by 2000, and least squares 

coefficients and standard errors, by various student characteristics................................ 40 

11 Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-year 

institutions, and who were employed and not enrolled in 1998, percentage who 

reported that their enrollment improved their employment outcomes, by degree 

attainment........................................................................................................................ 43 

12 Percentage of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year institutions by 

December 1994 according to whether postsecondary education led to various 

employment improvements, by attainment as of 2000.................................................... 44 

Appendix 

B1 Variables used in this report with weighted response rates less than 85 percent for the 

analysis sample (first-time community college students enrolled by 1994).................... 66 

B2 Standard errors for table 2: Percentage distribution of 1999–2000 undergraduates who 

were enrolled in public 2-year institutions according to their current degree program 

and when they enrolled, by gender and age .................................................................... 67 
xix 

List of Figures 

Figure Page 

Executive Summary 

A Percentage distribution of 1999–2000 undergraduates in public 2-year institutions 

according to their current degree program and when they enrolled ................................ v 

B Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to their degree/certificate and transfer 

expectations..................................................................................................................... v 

C Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year 

institutions by December 1994 according to the highest level of education they 

expected to complete as reported in 1992 ....................................................................... vi 

D Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions who intended to obtain a credential according to highest 

postsecondary education attained by 2001 ...................................................................... vii 

E Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year 

institutions by December 1994 who intended to obtain a credential according to 

highest postsecondary education attained by 2000.......................................................... vii 

F Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-year 

institutions, the percentage who transferred to a 4-year institution, and among 

transfers, the percentage who completed a bachelor’s degree or were still enrolled as 

of 2001............................................................................................................................. viii 

G Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-year 

institutions and who were no longer enrolled, the percentage who reported their 

enrollment resulted in a salary increase or improved their job responsibilities as 

reported in 1998, by degree attainment ........................................................................... x 

Text 

1 Percentage distribution of 1999–2000 undergraduates in public 2-year institutions 

according to their current degree program and when they enrolled ................................ 7 
List of Figures 

xx 

Figure Page 

2 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to their specific degree expectations and reported 

primary purpose for enrolling.......................................................................................... 8 

3 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to their degree expectations from that college and 

purpose for enrolling ....................................................................................................... 9 

4 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in 

public 2-year institutions according to their degree/certificate and transfer 

expectations..................................................................................................................... 9 

5 Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year 

institutions by December 1994 according to the highest level of education they 

expected to complete as reported in 1992 ....................................................................... 10 

6 Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in a community 

college and attained a degree or certificate by 2001, the average number of months 

enrolled and the average elapsed months since first enrollment for the highest degree 

attained ............................................................................................................................ 31 
1 

Introduction

Community colleges have become a large component of the postsecondary education 

system. In 1999–2000, 42 percent of all undergraduates were enrolled at public 2-year 

institutions, commonly known as community colleges (Horn, Peter, and Rooney 2002). Since the 

community college movement began, these institutions have served a critical role in broadening 

access to postsecondary education (Cohen and Brawer 2002). Because of their lower fees and 

open-access policies, they have provided entry into the postsecondary education system for those 

who could not afford 4-year colleges, who had poor academic performance in high school, who 

needed English or other basic skills before pursuing college-level work, who wanted job skills, or 

who were not sure about what they wanted to do (Grubb 1999). Community colleges also play an 

important role in preparing students to become skilled technicians, in occupational areas that 

require less than a baccalaureate degree. 

Although access to a community college is easily attained, many students who enroll do not 

complete a formal credential. For example, 44 percent of those who began their postsecondary 

education in a community college in 1995–96 had not earned any type of degree or certificate and 

were no longer enrolled in postsecondary education by 1998 (Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000). 

Of those students who expected to attain a certificate, 39 percent had done so by 1998, and an 

additional 3 percent had attained an associate’s degree. Of those who expected to attain an 

associate’s degree, 6 percent had attained a certificate by 1998, and 11 percent had attained an 

associate’s degree.1 

There is no single benchmark against which to assess these outcomes, and the factors 

affecting attainment are varied, complex, and often outside the influence of postsecondary 

institutions. Federal policy, as reflected in the Higher Education Act and the Carl Perkins 

Vocational Education Act, has defined measures of program completion and established 

standards for performance. 

To date, these performance indicators have been limited primarily to measuring completion 

of formal credentials such as a certificate or an associate’s degree. However, community colleges 

 

1Rates of attainment, particularly for associate’s degrees, increase with time. Earning an associate’s degree typically requires the 

equivalent of 2 academic years of full-time enrollment, and many students take longer to complete their degree. The period of 

time between students’ entry into community colleges in 1995–96 and the follow-up interview in winter/spring 1998 was about 

33 months. 
Introduction 

2 

serve students with a wide range of goals, and for some students, attaining a formal credential is 

not their primary reason for enrolling (Phillipe and Patton 1999). While some students seek an 

associate’s degree or wish to transfer to a 4-year institution, others are looking for job skills so 

they can enter the workforce, change jobs, or advance in their careers. Still others seek basic 

skills such as English language proficiency or personal enrichment opportunities. Thus some 

community college students attain their personal goals without completing a certificate or degree 

program. 

In addition, some students come prepared for college-level work, but many do not. For 

example, of 1992 high school graduates beginning their postsecondary education in community 

colleges by December 1994, 64 percent were not qualified or were only minimally qualified to do 

4-year college-level work.2 Additionally, 54 percent of these students enrolled with one or more 

risk factors associated with lower rates of postsecondary persistence and attainment.3 

This report uses several data sets to profile community college students and describe their 

persistence and attainment. The analysis focuses on the following questions: 

1. What percentage of students enrolling in community colleges seek to complete a 

formal credential, either in public 2-year institutions or through transfer to a 4-year 

college or university? 

2. How do different types of community college students vary in their intentions to 

complete a formal credential? 

3. Among those intending to complete a certificate or degree or transfer to a 4-year 

institution, what percentage actually do so, and how do rates of completion vary among 

different types of students? 

4. Among students intending to complete a formal credential, what is the relationship 

between rates of completion and different levels of postsecondary preparedness? 

5. When students are asked about the impact of their postsecondary education on their 

labor market participation, how do the responses of students who completed a formal 

credential differ from those who left without a certificate or degree? 

Wherever possible, the analysis takes into account differences in student objectives. While it 

examines student outcomes mainly with respect to students’ completion of formal credentials—

certificates and degrees, along with transfer to 4-year institutions—the analysis concentrates on 

those students who say that these objectives are their primary reason for enrolling. 

 

2See table 6. 

3Ibid. 
3 

Data and Terminology 

This report analyzes data from three sources: the 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary 

Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01); the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 

(NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000”; and the 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student 

Aid Study (NPSAS:2000). Each data set provides a different perspective on the major questions 

of the analysis. BPS consists of a sample of all undergraduates, regardless of when they 

graduated from high school, who enrolled in postsecondary education for the first time in 1995–

96 and were last interviewed in 2001, about 6 years later. This survey provides the latest data on 

degree attainment and persistence 6 years after the students first enrolled as well as their 4-year 

college transfer rates and the outcomes of these transfers. The sample used in this report was 

restricted to BPS students whose first enrollment in postsecondary education was in a community 

college. 

NELS tracks a grade cohort over time, meaning the respondents are all in the same grade 

and about the same age. NELS respondents were first surveyed in 1988 when they were in the 

eighth grade and then followed through high school and college. They were last interviewed in 

2000 about 8 years after most participants graduated from high school. The sample used in this 

report was restricted to 1992 high school graduates whose first enrollment in postsecondary 

education was in a community college within 2 years after graduating from high school. Unlike 

the BPS cohort, which includes first-time students regardless of their age, the NELS cohort 

reflects a more “traditional” group of students—those who enroll in postsecondary education 

soon after high school graduation. NELS provides several measures of high school academic 

performance to determine how students’ academic preparation is associated with their college 

outcomes. 

Finally, NPSAS consists of a sample of all students who were enrolled in postsecondary 

education during the 1999–2000 academic year. NPSAS includes not only students of all ages 

but also those who entered postsecondary education at different points in time and who are at 

different stages of their studies. The data from NPSAS are used to determine the degree goals of 

community college students who first enrolled in 1999–2000 as well as those of continuing 

students. 
Data and Terminology 

4 

Terminology 

This report examines relationships among students’ objectives for enrolling in community 

colleges and how well they realized these objectives. In doing so, the study examines the 

programs of study students pursue, the reasons they give for enrolling, the degree program in 

which they actually enroll, and the outcomes associated with their enrollment. 

Student Objectives 

Identifying student objectives is not straightforward. For one thing, students’ responses 

depend on how a question is asked. When students who first enrolled in a 2-year institution in 

1995–96 were asked about the degree they expected to obtain from attending that institution, 16 

percent responded “none,” 11 percent said they expected to obtain a certificate, 49 percent 

anticipated an associate’s degree, and 25 percent intended to transfer to a 4-year institution to 

pursue a bachelor’s degree.4 However, when asked a different question about their purpose for 

enrolling, 23 percent said they wanted to acquire “job skills,” 21 percent wanted to obtain a 

certificate or associate’s degree, 37 percent intended to transfer to a 4-year institution, and 16 

percent responded “personal enrichment.”5 Some of these choices are not mutually exclusive, 

and in fact, 78 percent of those responding “job skills” said they expected to obtain a certificate 

or associate’s degree or intended to transfer to a 4-year institution when they were asked the 

separate question about degree expectations.6

Additionally, students were asked both questions during the initial interview shortly after 

enrolling. Students’ purpose and expectations can change as they learn more about college 

offerings and experience first hand the content of particular programs of study. For these and 

other reasons, comparing what students accomplish years later with what they initially indicated 

was their intent for enrolling may not precisely reflect whether students realize their 

postsecondary objectives. 

Programs of Study 

Another approach to gauging student outcomes compares a student’s decision to enroll in a 

particular program of study with what that student subsequently accomplishes. For example, it 

may be reasonable to expect that students enrolling in “certificate” programs complete the 

program by earning a certificate, but it may not be appropriate to expect them to earn an 

 

4See figure 2. 

5See table 3. 

6See figure 3. 
Data and Terminology 

5 

associate’s degree. However, “program of study” is to some extent an administrative category 

that does not necessarily have a clear meaning for all students. Consequently, it is an imperfect 

indicator of student intent. 

Student Outcomes 

Defining and measuring student outcomes are also problematic. The most common 

indicator of whether or not students enrolled in community colleges complete a coherent program 

of study is the award of a formal credential—a certificate or an associate’s degree. Additionally, 

transfer to a 4-year institution to pursue a bachelor’s degree is also considered a measure of 

“success” at a 2-year institution. This analysis focuses on whether or not students earn a formal 

credential, certificate, or associate’s degree or transfer to a 4-year institution. While the 

requirements for earning an associate’s degree are fairly standard across programs of study and 

institutions—typically requiring 2 years of full-time enrollment—requirements for completing a 

certificate can vary from a few hours to as much as 2 years of full-time study, with 1 year of fulltime study the norm (Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000). Additionally, programs in fields with 

formal licensing requirements—such as nursing, real estate, cosmetology, and many of the 

building trades—are more likely than other programs to offer formal certificates when students 

complete the program of study. 

Not all students enroll in community colleges intending to obtain a credential or transfer. 

Some enroll to take a specific course or two, to upgrade job skills, or perhaps to satisfy personal 

enrichment objectives. Some may simply be exploring whether they want to pursue 

postsecondary education. For these students, completion measured by the award of a formal 

credential or transfer is not an appropriate indicator of whether they have met their objectives. 
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
7 

Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

Data from the three surveys examined here provide answers to the question of what 

percentage of students in community colleges enrolls intending to obtain a formal credential from 

several perspectives. Beginning with the 1999–2000 NPSAS, the most recent data source on 

community college enrollment, 89 percent of students in their first year of community college 

were either in a certificate program (14 percent) or an associate’s degree program (75 percent) in 

1999–2000; the remaining 11 percent indicated that they were not pursuing any type of 

undergraduate degree (figure 1). Among continuing community college students enrolled in 

1999–2000 (i.e., those in their second year or beyond), 10 percent were enrolled in a certificate 

program, 81 percent were enrolled in an associate’s degree program, and 10 percent said they 

were not enrolled in an undergraduate degree program. In short, regardless of whether students 

were enrolled for the first time or continuing their education, about 9-in-10 community college 

students were enrolled in a certificate or degree program in 1999–2000. 

Figure 1.—Percentage distribution of 1999–2000 undergraduates in public 2-year institutions according

Figure 1.—to their current degree program and when they enrolled

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student

Aid Study (NPSAS:2000).

11 14

75

10 10

81

0

20

40

60

80

100

No degree Certificate Associate’s degree

Percent

First-year students (enrolled in 1999–2000) Continuing students (enrolled before 1999–2000)
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

8 

Estimates from the 1996/01 BPS survey are consistent with these findings. When asked 

what they expected to accomplish while enrolled at a community college, 11 percent of the 

beginning students said they expected a certificate, 49 percent anticipated an associate’s degree, 

and 25 percent expected to transfer to a 4-year institution and attain a bachelor’s degree (figure 

2). When asked about their purpose for enrolling, 58 percent of the BPS students at community 

colleges cited transfer or a formal credential. This estimate appears lower than that suggested by 

Figure 2.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 

Figure 2.—2-year institutions according to their specific degree expectations and reported primary purpose

Figure 2.—for enrolling

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Purpose for enrolling

Credential 

or transfer

Job skills

58

19 23

Personal 

enrichment/

other

Degree expectations

Transfer/

bachelor’s 

degree

Associate’s 

degree

Vocational 

certificate

No degree/

certificate

49

25

16

11

the degree goal question, which indicated that a total of about 84 percent of first-time community 

college students intended to obtain a credential or to transfer. However, as shown in figure 3, 

among the 23 percent of students citing “job skills” as their purpose for enrolling, a total of about 

78 percent said they expected to obtain a degree or to transfer. 

A composite measure that combined responses to items asking about expectations for 

degree/transfer and purpose for enrolling (see appendix A for details), indicated that a total of 

about 89 percent of all first-time students intended to obtain a degree and/or transfer, while 11 

percent expected to do neither (figure 4). Thus, these responses were consistent with the NPSAS 

estimates that about 9-in-10 of first-time students intended to obtain a credential or transfer. 
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

9 

Figure 3.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public

Figure 3.—2-year institutions according to their degree expectations from that college and purpose for 

Figure 3.—enrolling

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

4

7

22

16

42

43

25

37

11

29

10

2

6 35

49

51

69

22

15

6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Other

Transfer to 4-year institution

Degree or certificate

Job skills

Total

Percent

None Certificate Associate’s degree Bachelor’s degree or transfer

Figure 4.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public

Figure 4.—2-year institutions according to their degree/certificate and transfer expectations

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

11

40

27 22

0

20

40

60

80

100

No degree/certificate Degree/certificate No degree/certificate Degree/certificate

Percent

No Transfer Transfer
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

10 

Data from the NELS cohort indicated that among those who had first enrolled in a 

community college by 1994, about 10 percent reported that they had no intentions of obtaining a 

formal credential (figure 5). Specifically, as seniors in high school, these NELS community 

college students said that they would attend less than 2 years of college or a trade school without 

necessarily earning a formal credential. Nearly two-thirds (63 percent) expected to earn a 

bachelor’s degree or higher. 

In summary, in all three surveys, about 9-in-10 students attending community colleges 

reported that they intended to earn a formal credential or to transfer to a 4-year institution so that 

they could pursue a bachelor’s degree. It would appear, therefore, that for most students who first 

enroll in community colleges, completion as measured by award of a formal credential or by 

transfer to a 4-year institution is a relevant consideration. 

Student Characteristics 

Community colleges serve a diverse group of students with different objectives, as well as 

different capacities for realizing those aims. This section of the report primarily examines the 

BPS data on first-time community college students to identify the different types of students 

seeking credentials—in particular, students of different ages and with different risk profiles. 

Figure 5.—Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year institutions

Figure 5.—by December 1994 according to the highest level of education they expected to complete as

Figure 5.—reported in 1992

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of

1988 (NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000, Data Analysis System.”

10 10

18

63

0

20

40

60

80

100

No degree, less than 2 years

of postsecondary education

Certificate or 2 or more

years of trade school

Associate’s degree Bachelor’s degree or higher

Percent
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

11 

Table 1 displays data from BPS showing various characteristics in relation to educational 

expectations. In 1995–96, older first-time community college students (i.e., age 24 or above) 

were less likely than younger ones to report that their purpose for enrolling in a community 

college was to transfer to a 4-year institution. 

Table 1.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 

Table 1.—2-year institutions according to their degree expectations, by various student characteristics

Bachelor’s degree

Student characteristics None Certificate Associate’s degree or transfer to 4-year

 Total 15.6 10.8 48.9 24.8

Purpose for enrolling

 Job skills 22.3 29.4 42.3 6.0

 Degree or certificate 6.7 9.6 68.9 14.8

 Transfer to 4-year 4.1 1.5 51.3 43.1

 Other1 37.2 6.4 34.8 21.6

Gender

 Male 13.6 10.1 48.1 28.2

 Female 17.3 11.5 49.6 21.7

Race/ethnicity2

 American Indian ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 Asian or Pacific Islander 2.5 7.1 50.1 40.3

 Black 18.3 15.8 44.3 21.6

 White 15.9 9.4 50.7 24.1

 Hispanic 16.0 16.6 41.8 25.6

Age

 18 years or younger 12.2 4.4 50.0 33.5

 19 to 23 years 16.9 9.2 50.9 23.0

 24 years or older 19.4 26.2 45.3 9.1

Risk of leaving postsecondary education3

 No risk factors 11.5 2.9 53.7 32.0

 One or more 16.6 13.6 47.4 22.5

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

1

Includes transfer to other 2-year or other transfer and personal enrichment.

2

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and

Hispanic includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

3

Represents an index of risk from 0–7 characteristics known to adversely affect persistence and attainment. Characteristics

include delayed postsecondary enrollment; high school dropout or GED recipient; part-time enrollment; financial independence;

having dependents other than spouse; single-parent status; and working full time while enrolled (see appendix A for details).

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. Detail may not sum to totals because of

rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary 

Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

12 

 Table 2 displays data from the 1999–2000 NPSAS survey, which also indicates that older 

community college students, whether in their first year or continuing, were more likely than 

younger students to enroll without a credential goal. Among those in their first year, 16 percent 

of students 24 years or older were not enrolled in any undergraduate degree program, compared 

with 7 percent of students 19 to 23 years and 9 percent of those 18 years or younger. Older 

students were also more likely than younger students to be enrolled in a certificate program and 

less likely to be pursuing an associate’s degree. 

When examining the reported purpose of BPS students for enrolling in a community 

college, age differences were also apparent (table 3). Students 24 years or older were more likely 

than younger students to cite job skills as their purpose for enrolling. In contrast, students 

Table 2.—Percentage distribution of 1999–2000 undergraduates who were enrolled in public 2-year 

Table 2.—institutions according to their current degree program and when they enrolled, by gender and age 

Gender and age No degree Certificate Associate’s degree

 Total 10.9 13.8 75.3

Gender

 Male 10.9 15.5 73.7

 Female 10.9 12.3 76.8

Age

 18 years or younger 8.6 6.9 84.6

 19 to 23 years 7.4 10.7 81.8

 24 years or older 15.9 21.0 63.1

 Total 9.5 9.8 80.7

Gender

 Male 10.6 11.5 77.9

 Female 8.6 8.6 82.7

Age

 18 years or younger ‡ ‡ ‡

 19 to 23 years 5.5 5.5 89.0

 24 years or older 11.6 12.1 76.3

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student

Aid Study (NPSAS:2000).

First enrolled before 1999–2000 (continuing students)

First enrolled in 1999–2000
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

13 

Table 3.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public

Table 3.—2-year institutions according to their main purpose for enrolling, by various student

Table 3.—characteristics

Transfer

Degree or to 4-year Other Personal

Student characteristics Job skills certificate institution transfer enrichment

 Total 22.9 20.9 37.2 3.1 15.9

Degree expected at first institution

 None 33.7 9.2 10.3 13.9 33.0

 Any credential or transfer 20.9 22.9 42.2 1.2 12.8

 Certificate 64.2 19.1 5.2 0.5 11.1

 Associate’s degree 19.4 28.9 38.5 1.1 12.1

 Transfer to 4-year institution 5.5 12.6 65.3 1.8 14.9

Transfer or degree expectation at first institution

 No transfer, no degree/certificate 49.4 # # # 50.7

 No transfer, degree/certificate 40.5 44.3 # # 15.2

 Transfer, no degree/certificate 6.4 # 69.0 9.5 15.2

 Transfer, degree/certificate 1.5 16.6 76.5 2.5 3.0

Gender

 Male 20.8 16.2 42.1 3.9 17.0

 Female 24.8 25.2 32.7 2.5 14.9

Race/ethnicity1

 American Indian ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 Asian or Pacific Islander 11.5 22.6 60.7 # 5.2

 Black 29.0 22.3 27.5 1.6 19.6

 White 23.0 20.0 37.3 3.0 16.7

 Hispanic 19.9 24.8 38.0 7.2 10.1

Age

 18 years or younger 13.7 17.8 50.3 4.4 13.8

 19 to 23 years 18.7 23.8 37.5 3.4 16.6

 24 years or older 45.2 22.8 12.2 0.4 19.5

Risk of leaving postsecondary education2

 No risk factors 10.5 15.9 55.3 3.9 14.4

 One or more 26.4 22.4 31.8 3.0 16.4

#Rounds to zero.

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and

Hispanic includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

2

Represents an index of risk from 0–7 characteristics known to adversely affect persistence and attainment. Characteristics

include delayed postsecondary enrollment; high school dropout or GED recipient; part-time enrollment; financial independence;

having dependents other than spouse; single-parent status; and working full time while enrolled (see appendix A for details).

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. Detail may not sum to totals because of

rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary 

Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

14 

24 years or older were less likely than students 18 or younger to report transfer to a 4-year 

institution as their purpose for enrolling (12 percent vs. 50 percent). 

An analysis of differences by gender and race/ethnicity among the BPS students revealed 

that women were more likely than men to report intentions of obtaining a degree or certificate 

(25 percent vs. 16 percent), while men were more likely to report that they intended to transfer to 

a 4-year institution (42 percent vs. 33 percent) (table 3). Asian students were more likely than 

both White and Black students to report intentions of transferring to a 4-year institution (61 

percent vs. 37 and 28 percent, respectively).7 Table 4, which combines degree and transfer 

expectations, indicates that Black students were more likely than White students to report 

intentions of earning a credential at the community college without transferring (53 percent vs. 

39 percent). 

Among BPS students with one or more characteristics known to place them at risk of not 

completing their postsecondary education,8 26 percent said they enrolled in a community college 

to obtain job skills, compared with 11 percent of students with no risk factors (table 3). A lower 

percentage of students with one or more risk factors reported that their purpose for enrolling was 

to transfer to a 4-year institution than their counterparts with no risk factors (32 percent vs. 55 

percent). Similarly, in table 4, it is evident that students at risk were more likely to report 

intentions of earning a credential without transferring (45 percent vs. 26 percent), while students 

with no risk factors were more likely to report intentions of transferring and earning a credential 

(32 percent vs. 19 percent). 

Looking at the actual degree program in which BPS students were enrolled when they first 

began community college, age differences were also observed (table 5). Older students were less 

likely than younger students to be enrolled in liberal arts or undeclared programs but were more 

likely to be enrolled in certificate programs. Students at risk were also more likely than those 

with no risk factors to be enrolled in certificate programs (19 percent vs. 4 percent). 

In summary, the analysis revealed important differences in the characteristics of students 

with various postsecondary objectives and patterns of enrollment in programs of study. In 

general, older students are less likely to be expecting a formal credential and are more likely to 

be seeking job skills. Older students are also more likely to opt for certificate programs than their 

 

7For ease of presentation, racial/ethnic group categories discussed in the text are abbreviated. Any reference to Black includes

African American, Asian includes Pacific Islander and Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic includes Latino. Race categories exclude 

Hispanic origin unless specified. 

8The risk index consists of seven factors: delayed postsecondary enrollment; high school dropout or GED recipient; part-time 

enrollment; financial independence; having dependents other than a spouse; single-parent status; and working full time while 

enrolled. 
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

15 

Table 4.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 

Table 4.—2-year institutions according to their transfer or degree expectation, by various student

Table 4.—characteristics

No degree/ Degree/ No degree/ Degree/

Student characteristics certificate certificate certificate certificate

 Total 11.0 40.4 26.9 21.7

Purpose for enrolling

 Job skills 22.3 68.6 7.6 1.6

 Degree or certificate # 81.2 # 18.8

 Transfer to 4-year institution # # 50.4 49.6

 Other1 27.4 30.8 35.0 6.8

Gender

 Male 9.1 36.1 30.8 24.1

 Female 12.7 44.4 23.4 19.5

Race/ethnicity2

 American Indian ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 Asian or Pacific Islander 5.7 37.6 39.8 16.9

 Black 11.2 52.8 21.7 14.3

 White 11.8 39.4 26.1 22.8

 Hispanic 7.2 36.0 32.2 24.7

Age

 18 years or younger 6.3 28.8 37.8 27.1

 19 to 23 years 10.8 41.7 25.2 22.3

 24 years or older 19.7 61.0 9.0 10.3

Risk of leaving postsecondary education3

 No risk factors 4.6 25.8 37.5 32.1

 One or more 12.5 45.3 23.6 18.7

#Rounds to zero.

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

1

Includes transfer to other 2-year or other transfer and personal enrichment.

2

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and

Hispanic includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

3

Represents an index of risk from 0–7 characteristics known to adversely affect persistence and attainment. Characteristics

include delayed postsecondary enrollment; high school dropout or GED recipient; part-time enrollment; financial independence;

having dependents other than spouse; single-parent status; and working full time while enrolled (see appendix A for details).

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. Detail may not sum to totals because of

rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary 

Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

No transfer Transfer
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

16 

Table 5.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 

Table 5.—2-year institutions according to their first degree program, by various student characteristics

Associate’s degree Associate’s degree

Student characteristics Certificate1 applied fields1 liberal arts/undeclared1

 Total 15.5 39.9 44.6

Degree expected at first institution

 None 23.2 25.2 51.7

 Any credential or transfer 14.4 43.0 42.7

 Certificate 83.6 16.4 #

 Associate’s degree 4.3 53.0 42.7

 Transfer to 4-year institution 2.8 35.1 62.0

Transfer or degree expectation at first institution

 No transfer, no degree/certificate 26.2 30.6 43.2

 No transfer, degree/certificate 28.0 48.0 24.1

 Transfer, no degree/certificate 3.1 30.3 66.6

 Transfer, degree/certificate 2.9 42.3 54.8

Purpose for enrolling

 Job skills 41.0 45.5 13.5

 Degree or certificate 15.2 47.7 37.1

 Transfer to 4-year institution 1.9 36.4 61.7

 Other2 11.8 32.0 56.3

Gender

 Male 14.1 39.7 46.2

 Female 16.7 40.2 43.1

Race/ethnicity3

 American Indian ‡ ‡ ‡

 Asian or Pacific Islander 4.6 47.4 48.0

 Black 27.3 47.6 25.1

 White 14.5 38.8 46.7

 Hispanic 14.4 38.0 47.7

Age

 18 years or younger 7.0 38.7 54.3

 19 to 23 years 14.8 42.5 42.7

 24 years or older 32.3 38.5 29.3

Risk of leaving postsecondary education4

 No risk factors 4.4 44.3 51.3

 One or more 18.8 38.7 42.5

#Rounds to zero.

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

1

Composite variable based on student-reported degree program, highest degree expected at the first institution, major at the first

institution, and institution-reported program. Discrepancies were resolved by examining student-reported majors. Applied associate’s

degree fields generally include computer science, engineering, business, health, and early childhood education. Liberal arts fields 

generally include humanities, social sciences, life and physical sciences, and mathematics, as well as education beyond early childhood,

pre-law, and pre-medical courses of study.

2

Includes transfer to other 2-year or other transfer and personal enrichment.

3

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

4

Represents an index of risk from 0–7 characteristics known to adversely affect persistence and attainment. Characteristics include

delayed postsecondary enrollment; high school dropout or GED recipient; part-time enrollment; financial independence; having

dependents other than spouse; single-parent status; and working full time while enrolled (see appendix A for details).

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).
Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

17 

younger peers. Students with one or more risk factors associated with not completing 

postsecondary education are also more likely than those with no risk factors to enroll to obtain 

job skills, or to earn a vocational certificate. Correspondingly, students at risk are also less likely 

than those with no risk factors to opt for transfer to a 4-year institution. 

Nevertheless, these are differences of degree, not kind, and none of these characteristics 

appear to be a good substitute for student objective or program of study. Consequently, efforts to 

assess student outcomes with respect to postsecondary objectives are better measured by student 

intent directly rather than by using demographic or risk characteristics as proxies for student 

purpose. 
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
19 

High School Academic Preparation and Risk 

Whether or not students succeed in postsecondary education is influenced, in part, by how 

well prepared they are to pursue postsecondary coursework. This section of the report addresses 

how prepared high school graduates who enroll in a community college are to undertake collegelevel coursework. Are they at risk of not completing their postsecondary education before they 

begin? The NELS survey of 1992 high school graduates provides a number of indicators of 

students’ academic readiness as well as indicators of risk associated with postsecondary attrition. 

Measures of academic preparation used in this analysis include students’ 12th-grade proficiency 

test levels in mathematics9 and reading10 and whether they completed the minimum basic 

curriculum as advocated in A Nation at Risk (National Commission on Excellence in Education 

1983). This coursework includes 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, and 2 years each of 

mathematics and science. Additionally, students who were academically qualified to attend a 4-

year college were also identified.11 The analysis also used risk profiles of students to determine 

whether students were at risk of dropping out of high school,12 or for those enrolled in college, if 

they were at risk of not completing their postsecondary education.13

Many of the NELS students who began their postsecondary education in community 

colleges faced many challenges to completing a credential (table 6). Thirty percent of these 

students enrolled with 12th-grade mathematics proficiency scores at Level 1 or below. These 

students could perform simple arithmetical operations on whole numbers but could not perform 

simple operations on decimals, fractions, powers, or roots. In addition, 44 percent of the NELS 

students enrolled with 12th-grade reading proficiency scores at Level 1 or below. Although these 

 

9Five levels of proficiency were determined based on the mathematics test administered in 1992 (Rock, Pollack, and Quinn 

1995). See appendix A under entry for “F22XMPRO.” 

10Three levels of reading proficiency were determined based on the NELS reading test administered in 1992 (Rock, Pollack, and 

Quinn 1995). See appendix A under entry for “F22XRPRO.” 

11The college qualification variable was based on research by Berkner and Chavez (1997) who created the 4-year college 

qualification index based on several measures including GPA, high school class rank, SAT/ACT scores, NELS test scores, and 

the rigor of courses taken in high school (see appendix A for details). 

12These factors were determined in eighth grade and include living in a single-parent family, having a parent with no high school

diploma, being a student with limited English proficiency, having a family income of less than $15,000, having a sibling who 

dropped out of high school, and being home alone more than 3 hours a day. 

13Characteristics include delaying enrollment between high school graduation and postsecondary enrollment, attending part time, 

completing high school by certificate or GED, working full time when first enrolled, having children, and becoming a single 

parent before or during enrollment. Unlike the BPS survey, there is no risk factor for being financially independent because this 

risk factor primarily applies to adult students 24 or older.
High School Academic Preparation and Risk 

20 

Table 6.—Percentage distribution (by columns) of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year

Table 6.—institutions by December 1994, by various measures of academic performance and risk of attrition

Academic performance

and risk indicators Percent

 Total 100.0

Reading proficiency in 19921

 Level 1 or below 43.9

 Level 2 39.5

 Level 3 16.6

Mathematics proficiency in 19922

 Level 1 or below 29.7

 Level 2 or 3 46.0

 Level 4 or 5 24.4

Minimum basic curriculum in high school3

 Did not complete 34.6

 Completed 65.4

4-year college qualification composite4

 Not qualified or minimally qualified 63.7

 Somewhat to highly qualified 36.3

Risk of dropping out of high school in 19885

 No risk factors 61.2

 One or more risk factors 38.8

Risk of leaving postsecondary education6

 No risk factors 45.8

 One or more risk factors 54.2

1

Level 1: Simple reading comprehension including reproduction of detail and/or the author’s main thought. Level 2: Ability to make

relatively simple inferences beyond the author’s main thought and/or understand and evaluate relatively abstract concepts. Level 3:

Ability to make complex inferences or evaluative judgments that require piecing together multiple sources of information from the

passage (Rock, Pollack and Quinn 1995). 

2

Level 1: Simple arithmetical operations on whole numbers; these were essentially single-step operations that rely on rote memory.

Level 2: Simple operations with decimals, fractions, powers, roots. Level 3: Simple problem solving, requiring the understanding of

low-level mathematical concepts. Level 4: Understanding of intermediate-level mathematical concepts and/or having the ability to

formulate multistep solutions to word problems. Level 5: Proficiency in solving complex, multistep word problems and/or the ability to

demonstrate knowledge of mathematics material found in advanced mathematics courses (Rock, Pollack, and Quinn 1995). 3

Based on the “minimum standard” of the “New Basics” curriculum first advocated in A Nation at Risk. Student completed at least 4

years of English, 3 years of social studies, and 2 years each of science and mathematics.

4

This variable provides an estimate of how well prepared the students who participated in NELS were for 4-year college-level work as 

of 1994. The following variables were used as criteria: high school senior-year rank in class percentage, cumulative grade-point average

for academic courses, SAT combined test scores, ACT composite scores, NELS 1992 mathematics and reading composite test scores.

5

This variable assesses the sample member’s risk (at the time of the base-year survey) of later dropping out of high school. This variable

was constructed using the following six composite and questionnaire variables: single-parent family, low parent education, sibling

dropout, 3 or more hours at home alone, limited English proficiency, and low family income.

6

Represents an index of risk from 0–6 characteristics known to adversely affect postsecondary persistence and attainment. These

characteristics are the student delayed enrollment between high school graduation and postsecondary entry, part-time attendance at first

institution, completed high school by certificate or GED, worked full time when first enrolled, student was a parent, and the student was

a single parent before or while enrolled.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988

(NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000, Data Analysis System.”
High School Academic Preparation and Risk 

21 

students had basic reading comprehension skills, they could not make relatively simple 

inferences beyond the author’s main point. 

In 1988, when the NELS 1992 high school graduates were in the eighth grade, 39 percent of 

those who were enrolled in community colleges had been at risk for dropping out of high school. 

In addition, 54 percent of these NELS students entered community college with one or more 

characteristics that placed them at risk of not completing their postsecondary education.14

While many of the NELS high school graduates who enrolled in a community college 

lacked the academic preparation needed to undertake college-level courses, 36 percent were 

academically qualified to attend a 4-year institution. Similarly, 17 percent and 24 percent, 

respectively, had scored at the highest proficiency levels tested in reading and mathematics when 

they were seniors in high school. 

 

14As a point of comparison, 29 percent of NELS 1992 high school graduates who entered public 4-year institutions had been at 

risk of dropping out of high school and 35 percent entered college at risk of not completing their postsecondary education. For

those who never enrolled in postsecondary education, 82 percent were at risk of dropping out of high school, and if they had 

enrolled in postsecondary education, 71 percent would have been at risk of not completing. 
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
23 

Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking 

Formal Credentials 

The BPS survey provides the most recent national data available to conduct an analysis of 

student completion rates. Among all BPS students who began postsecondary education at a 

community college, 36 percent had attained a degree or certificate (table 7a). However, as 

discussed earlier, not all BPS students had enrolled to obtain a credential. Therefore, it is 

appropriate to examine outcomes specifically for those who did report intentions of completing a 

degree or certificate. It is primarily these students for whom completion, as measured by earning 

a formal award, is a relevant indicator. What, then, were the rates of completion among students 

for whom a certificate, associate’s degree, or bachelor’s degree through transfer to a 4-year 

institution was a stated aim? 

Among BPS community college students expecting to either complete a formal credential 

or transfer to a 4-year institution, about 39 percent had attained a credential by 2001 (table 7a). 

Among those who expected to attain a certificate, 35 percent had done so by the end of 2001, and 

an additional 7 percent had attained an associate’s degree, and 1 percent a bachelor’s degree. In 

total, therefore, about 42 percent of students who sought a vocational certificate when they first 

enrolled had earned a formal credential by 2001. 

Among BPS students who expected to attain an associate’s degree, 22 percent had done so 

by 2001, and an additional 8 percent had attained a bachelor’s degree. About 8 percent of 

associate’s degree seekers had earned a vocational certificate as their highest attainment. In total, 

about 38 percent of associate’s degree seekers had earned a formal credential by 2001. 

About 23 percent of BPS students seeking to transfer to a 4-year institution had attained a 

bachelor’s degree within 6 years. In addition, within this time period, 6 percent of bachelor’s 

degree seekers had earned a certificate as their highest credential, and an additional 11 percent an 

associate’s degree. In total, after 6 years, 39 percent of bachelor’s degree seekers had earned a 

formal credential. However, as will be discussed later, about one-fifth of the students seeking a 

bachelor’s degree had attended a 4-year institution but had not yet earned a degree. 

Finally, among BPS students who reported that they did not expect to obtain any formal 

credential when they first enrolled, about one-fifth had done so by 2001, including 5 percent who 

had attained a certificate, 11 percent who had attained an associate’s degree, and 6 percent who 
Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

24 

Table 7a.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public

Table 7a.—2-year institutions according to highest degree attained through 2001, by various student 

Table 7a.—characteristics

Highest attainment

Attained Attained

Total Attained associate’s bachelor’s

Student characteristics attained certificate degree degree

 Total 35.7 9.7 15.7 10.3

Degree expected at first institution

 None 21.2 4.6 10.7 5.8

 Any credential or transfer 38.8 10.7 16.8 11.3

 Certificate 42.3 34.7 7.0 0.6

 Associate’s degree 37.8 7.9 22.1 7.9

 Transfer to 4-year institution 39.2 5.8 10.5 22.9

Purpose for enrolling

 Job skills 30.1 16.6 13.2 0.3

 Degree or certificate 36.0 11.9 17.3 6.8

 Transfer to 4-year institution 43.0 5.9 16.0 21.1

 Other1 33.5 8.7 18.8 5.9

First degree program2

 Certificate 37.1 29.4 6.5 1.3

 Associate’s degree, applied field 36.4 7.9 19.0 9.5

 Associate’s degree, liberal arts/undeclared 36.8 5.3 17.5 14.0

Gender

 Male 37.2 9.6 17.1 10.5

 Female 34.3 9.8 14.5 10.0

Race/ethnicity3

 American Indian ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 Asian or Pacific Islander 38.9 8.2 23.6 7.1

 Black 26.0 15.1 7.7 3.1

 White 38.1 9.3 16.8 12.0

 Hispanic 29.5 8.1 15.5 5.9

Age

 18 years or younger 42.6 6.7 18.4 17.5

 19 to 23 years 31.7 8.4 18.3 5.0

 24 years or older 30.7 17.4 10.9 2.4

Risk of leaving postsecondary education4

 No risk factors 55.0 6.6 25.0 23.3

 One or more 29.7 10.9 12.7 6.2

Delayed enrollment after high school

 Did not delay 40.9 5.9 18.9 16.1

 Delayed 1 or more years 30.0 13.4 12.5 4.2

See notes at end of table.
Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

25 

Table 7a.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public

Table 7a.—2-year institutions according to highest degree attained through 2001, by various student 

Table 7a.—characteristics—Continued

Highest attainment

Attained Attained

Total Attained associate’s bachelor’s

Student characteristics attained certificate degree degree

High school graduation status

 Received a high school diploma 36.4 8.6 16.4 11.4

 Received a GED or certificate or did not

 complete high school 30.6 17.5 11.1 2.0

Dependency status

 Dependent 39.7 7.1 18.3 14.3

 Independent 29.2 14.9 11.0 3.3

Number of dependents

 None 37.4 8.8 16.4 12.2

 One or more 31.0 13.8 13.2 4.0

Single-parent status

 Not a single parent 35.7 9.3 15.4 11.0

 Single parent 39.2 14.9 18.7 5.6

Hours worked per week while enrolled

 Under 35 41.9 8.2 19.8 13.9

 35 or more 24.4 13.0 8.2 3.3

Intensity first month enrolled

 Full-time 43.2 8.9 20.1 14.2

 Part-time 29.9 12.1 12.3 5.6

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

1

Includes transfer to other 2-year or other transfer and personal enrichment.

2

Composite variable based on student-reported degree program, highest degree expected at the first institution, major at the

first institution, and institution-reported program. Discrepancies were resolved by examining student-reported majors. Applied

associate’s degree fields generally include computer science, engineering, business, health, and early childhood education. 

Liberal arts fields generally include humanities, social sciences, life and physical sciences, and mathematics, as well as 

education beyond early childhood, pre-law, and pre-medical courses of study.

3

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and

Hispanic includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

4

Represents an index of risk from 0–7 characteristics known to adversely affect persistence and attainment. Characteristics

include delayed postsecondary enrollment; high school dropout or GED recipient; part-time enrollment; financial independence;

having dependents other than spouse; single-parent status; and working full time while enrolled (see appendix A for details).

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. Detail may not sum to totals because 

of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary 

Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01). 
Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

26 

had attained a bachelor’s degree by 2001. Apparently these students’ educational goals had 

changed over time. 

Student Characteristics and Degree Attainment 

Reflecting, in part, their degree goals, BPS students who were 18 years or younger when 

they first enrolled in a community college were more likely to have earned a formal credential by 

2001 than older students (table 7a). In particular, they were more likely to have attained a 

bachelor’s degree. However, students 24 years or older were more likely than younger students to 

have completed a certificate. Because older students were more likely to be enrolled in certificate 

programs, this outcome would be expected. 

Community college students with no characteristics that placed them at risk of not 

completing their postsecondary education were more likely than those with risk factors to have 

completed an associate’s or bachelor’s degree. An apparent difference was also observed with 

respect to completing a certificate, but statistical significance could not be confirmed.15 In total, 

55 percent of students with no risk factors had earned a formal credential by 2001, while 30 

percent of students with one or more risk factors had done so. 

When examining each of the seven risk factors individually, the results are similar, though 

there are some important distinctions, especially with respect to certificate attainment by 2001. 

Students enrolled full time were more likely than part-time students to have earned a bachelor’s 

degree (14 percent vs. 6 percent) or an associate’s degree (20 percent vs. 12 percent). However, 

no difference was detected between full-time and part-time students in their attainment of 

certificates. Students who did not delay enrollment (i.e., younger students) were more likely than 

students who did delay to have completed a bachelor’s degree (16 percent vs. 4 percent) or an 

associate’s degree (19 percent vs. 13 percent), but higher percentages of students who delayed 

enrollment had completed certificates (13 percent vs. 6 percent). 

Differences for students with family responsibilities were also observed for bachelor’s 

degree attainment rates. Students with dependents were less likely than those without dependents 

to have attained a bachelor’s degree by 2001 (4 percent vs. 12 percent). However, no differences 

were detected between students with and without dependents in the rates at which they had 

attained associate’s degrees or certificates. Students who were financially independent from their 

parents (for financial aid purposes) had earned certificates at a higher rate than dependent 

students (15 percent vs. 7 percent), but dependent students were more likely than independent 

 

15The significance is between .05 and .10, and the observed difference is believed to be real, but due to large standard errors is 

not significant at p ≤ 0.05.
Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

27 

students to have earned an associate’s degree (18 percent vs. 11 percent) or a bachelor’s degree 

(14 percent vs. 3 percent). Students who worked fewer than 35 hours per week were more likely 

than those who worked 35 or more hours to have earned an associate’s degree (20 percent vs. 8 

percent) or a bachelor’s degree (14 percent vs. 3 percent). An apparent difference was observed 

for certificate completion between students who worked fewer than 35 hours per week and those 

who worked more hours, but statistical significance could not be confirmed.16

Completion Plus Transfer to 4-Year Institutions 

Defining completion as the award of a formal credential may understate the “success” of 

community colleges in serving students who begin their postsecondary education at these 

institutions. As was shown in figure 2, about one-quarter of BPS students who first enrolled in 

community colleges intended to transfer to a 4-year institution and complete their postsecondary 

instruction there, earning a bachelor’s degree or higher. A degree or certificate is not required for 

transferring to a 4-year institution, and many community college students make this transition 

without attaining a formal credential from the community college where they first started. Some 

of these students earn a bachelor’s degree; some do not. However, if students do transfer to a 4-

year institution, even if they subsequently leave without earning a degree, from the community 

college perspective, the transfer represents a successful outcome. 

Among BPS students in community colleges who intended to earn a credential, about 12 

percent had not done so but had transferred to a 4-year institution, including 8 percent who were 

still enrolled (table 7b). When combining the percentages of those who had attained a degree or 

certificate and those who had transferred, a total of 51 percent had achieved a successful 

outcome. Among BPS students who sought a bachelor’s degree, about one-fifth (21 percent) had 

not earned a degree but had transferred, including 14 percent who were still enrolled. Thus taking 

these transfers into account along with those who had attained a credential—23 percent earned a 

bachelor’s degree, 11 percent an associate’s degree, and 6 percent earned a certificate (table 7a) 

—a total of 60 percent of bachelor’s degree seekers had earned a credential or transferred (table 

7b). 

 

16The significance is between .05 and .10, and the observed difference is believed to be real, but due to large standard errors is 

not significant at p ≤ 0.05. 
Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

28 

Table 7b.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 

Table 7b.—2-year institutions according to attainment or enrollment in a 4-year institution through 2001,

Table 7b.—by various student characteristics

No degree, Total

total attained or

Total attended Still Not attended

Student characteristics attained 4-year enrolled enrolled 4-year

 Total 35.7 12.5 8.2 4.4 48.2

Degree expected at first institution

 None 21.2 13.4 8.2 5.1 34.5

 Any credential or transfer 38.8 12.2 8.2 4.0 51.0

 Certificate 42.3 # # # 42.4

 Associate’s degree 37.8 10.4 7.2 3.2 48.2

 Transfer to 4-year institution 39.2 21.1 13.9 7.2 60.4

Purpose for enrolling

 Job skills 30.1 4.7 3.5 1.2 34.9

 Degree or certificate 36.0 9.1 7.2 1.9 45.1

 Transfer to 4-year institution 43.0 20.4 14.0 6.4 63.4

 Other1 33.5 12.8 8.9 4.0 46.3

First degree program2

 Certificate 37.1 4.5 2.9 1.6 41.6

 Associate’s degree, applied field 36.4 9.2 6.3 2.9 45.6

 Associate’s degree, liberal arts/undeclared 36.8 17.8 12.4 5.3 54.6

Gender

 Male 37.2 16.3 10.7 5.6 53.5

 Female 34.3 9.0 5.8 3.2 43.3

Race/ethnicity3

 American Indian ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 Asian or Pacific Islander 38.9 20.5 11.9 8.6 59.4

 Black 26.0 10.7 5.4 5.4 36.7

 White 38.1 12.4 8.4 4.0 50.4

 Hispanic 29.5 12.5 9.1 3.4 42.0

Age

 18 years or younger 42.6 14.9 10.2 4.7 57.5

 19 to 23 years 31.7 15.9 10.8 5.1 47.6

 24 years or older 30.7 3.6 2.9 0.6 34.3

Risk of leaving postsecondary education4

 No risk factors 55.0 16.3 10.3 6.1 71.3

 One or more 29.7 11.1 7.7 3.4 40.9

Delayed enrollment after high school

 Did not delay 40.9 15.5 10.2 5.4 56.4

 Delayed 1 or more years 30.0 9.1 6.1 3.0 39.1

See notes at end of table.

No degree, 4-year
Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

29 

Table 7b.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 

Table 7b.—2-year institutions according to attainment or enrollment in a 4-year institution through 2001,

Table 7b.—by various student characteristics—Continued

No degree, Total

total attained or

Total attended Still Not attended

Student characteristics attained 4-year enrolled enrolled 4-year

High school graduation status

 Received a high school diploma 36.4 12.7 8.5 4.2 49.0

 Received a GED or certificate or did not

 complete high school 30.6 11.3 5.7 5.6 41.9

Dependency status

 Dependent 39.7 15.1 9.4 5.8 54.8

 Independent 29.2 7.3 6.4 0.9 36.5

Number of dependents

 None 37.4 14.2 9.2 5.0 51.6

 One or more 31.0 5.5 4.9 0.6 36.5

Single-parent status

 Not a single parent 35.7 13.4 8.8 4.6 49.1

 Single parent 39.2 3.8 3.8 # 43.0

Hours worked per week while enrolled

 Under 35 41.9 13.5 9.2 4.3 55.4

 35 or more 24.4 10.6 6.9 3.6 35.0

Intensity first month enrolled

 Full-time 43.2 14.3 10.3 4.0 57.5

 Part-time 29.9 7.9 5.5 2.4 37.8

#Rounds to zero.

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

1

Includes transfer to other 2-year or other transfer and personal enrichment.

2

Composite variable based on student-reported degree program, highest degree expected at the first institution, major at the

first institution, and institution-reported program. Discrepancies were resolved by examining student-reported majors. Applied

associate’s degree fields generally include computer science, engineering, business, health, and early childhood education. 

Liberal arts fields generally include humanities, social sciences, life and physical sciences, and mathematics, as well as 

education beyond early childhood, pre-law, and pre-medical courses of study.

3

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and

Hispanic includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

4

Represents an index of risk from 0–7 characteristics known to adversely affect persistence and attainment. Characteristics

include delayed postsecondary enrollment; high school dropout or GED recipient; part-time enrollment; financial independence;

having dependents other than spouse; single-parent status; and working full time while enrolled (see appendix A for details).

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. Detail may not sum to totals because 

of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary 

Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01). 

No degree, 4-year
Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

30 

Transfer Students 

Among all BPS students who first enrolled in a community college in 1995–96, 29 percent 

had transferred to a 4-year institution as of 2001 (table 8). Among these transfer students, 35 

percent had attained a bachelor’s degree in these 6 years and 44 percent were still enrolled in a 4-

year institution. In total, 6 years after first enrolling in a community college, nearly 8-in-10 

transfer students had persisted toward earning their bachelor’s degree. 

Among students who reported that they intended to transfer to a 4-year institution, 51 

percent had made the transfer. Among these transfers, 44 percent had attained a bachelor’s 

degree and another 38 percent were still enrolled and working toward their degree, representing a 

total persistence rate of 82 percent. Thus, while about one-half of bachelor’s degree seekers did 

not transfer for one reason or another, for those who did, most attained their degree or were still 

enrolled and working to complete it 6 years after first enrolling in a community college. 

For the most part, transfer students who enrolled in a community college with bachelor’s 

degree intentions did not earn an associate’s degree before transferring. About one-fifth (19 

percent) of such transfers had earned an associate’s degree before transferring, compared with 

about one-half (51 percent) of transfer students who reported having an associate’s degree goal 

when they first enrolled. 

Table 8.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-year 

Table 8.—institutions who transferred to a 4-year institution, and among transfers, degree attainment and 

Table 8.—persistence as of 2001

 Among transfers:

Percent who

Transferred Attained Total also attained

to 4-year bachelor’s Still enrolled persisted associate’s

Degree expectations institution degree in 4-year in 4-year degree

 Total 28.9 34.7 44.3 78.9 33.3

Degree expected at first institution

 Transfer to 4-year institution 50.8 44.0 38.3 82.3 18.8

 Associate’s degree 26.5 29.1 49.5 78.6 50.6

 Certificate 1.0 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 No degree 21.1 27.6 45.2 72.8 19.4

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary 

Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Persistence status
Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

31 

Among BPS community college students who enrolled with an associate’s degree goal, 

roughly one-quarter (26 percent) had transferred to a 4-year institution by 2001. Among these 

transfer students, 29 percent had attained a bachelor’s degree and 50 percent were still enrolled, 

representing a total persistence rate of 79 percent. 

Time to Degree 

In a recent report analyzing the entire BPS cohort, the authors point out that the time it took 

students to attain an associate’s degree was necessarily longer than 2 years because most 

community college students do not attend full time on a continuous basis (Berkner, He, and 

Cataldi 2002, table 8).17 Figure 6 shows the average number of elapsed months and the average 

number of enrolled months to complete a certificate, an associate’s degree, and a bachelor’s 

degree for BPS community college students who had completed these credentials as their highest 

attainment by 2001. From the date of first enrollment in 1995–96, the average number of months 

Figure 6.—Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in a community college and 

Figure 6.—attained a degree or certificate by 2001, the average number of months enrolled and the

Figure 6.—average elapsed months since first enrollment for the highest degree attained

1

10 percent had earned a certificate as their highest attainment by 2001.

2

16 percent had earned an associate’s degree as their highest attainment by 2001.

3

10 percent had earned a bachelor’s degree as their highest degree by 2001, but an additional 8 percent were still enrolled in a

4-year institution.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

20

34

49

29

41

56

0

12

24

36

48

60

Certificate Associate’s degree Bachelor’s degree

Months

Months enrolled Elapsed months from first enrollment

1 2 3

 

17Berkner, Horn, and Clune (2000) also reported that two-thirds of community college students attended primarily on a part-time 

basis (table 6). 
Completion Rates Among Community College Students Seeking Formal Credentials 

32 

to associate’s degree attainment was 41. Thus for the 16 percent of BPS students who had 

attained an associate’s degree as their highest degree by 2001 (as was shown in table 7a), it took 

them an average of about 3 and half years to complete a degree that is expected to take 2 years of 

full-time study. Students who earned a certificate (10 percent of all BPS community college 

students) took about 2 1/2 years (29 months) to complete. While the length of programs leading 

to a certificate varies, they are most often 1-year programs of full-time study (Berkner, Horn, and 

Clune 2000). As a point of comparison to the time it took students in community college 

programs to complete a certificate, BPS students who first enrolled in private for-profit 

institutions took an average of 14 months to complete a certificate.18

Among the 10 percent of community college students who had attained a bachelor’s degree 

within 6 years, they took nearly 5 years (56 months) to complete the degree. However, as was 

shown in table 7b, an additional 8 percent of BPS community college students, or roughly 44 

percent of those in bachelor’s degree programs, were still enrolled in a 4-year institution and had 

not yet completed their degree.19 As a point of comparison, BPS students who began in a 4-year 

institution took an average of 50 months to complete.20

 

18Estimate from 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01). 

19The 44 percent was calculated by dividing the percentage still enrolled (8 percent) by the total who had attained a bachelor’s 

degree or were still enrolled (18 percent). 

20Ibid. 
33 

Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled 

in Community Colleges 

This section of the report presents completion rates for the NELS students who entered 

community colleges. As previously discussed, these students are of similar ages and enrolled 

within 2 years after high school graduation. Thus, they represent a more traditional population of 

students. 

Among the NELS 1992 high school graduates who first enrolled in community colleges 

within 2 years of graduating from high school, about one-half (49 percent) had completed a 

degree or certificate by 2000 (table 9a). Among those who as seniors in high school reported 

intentions of earning a vocational certificate or attending a vocational program for more than 2 

years, 27 percent had earned a certificate, 26 percent had earned an associate’s degree, and 4 

percent had attained a bachelor’s degree. Thus, for those 1992 high school graduates who entered 

a community college intending to pursue 2 or more years of vocational education, 56 percent had 

earned a formal credential within 6 to 8 years. In contrast, among those graduates who intended 

to earn an associate’s degree, a total of 41 percent had earned a formal credential during that time 

period. 

For 1992 high school graduates who entered a community college with bachelor’s degree 

aspirations or higher, about 27 percent had attained a bachelor’s degree by 2000 (table 9a). About 

16 percent of bachelor’s degree seekers had earned an associate’s degree as their highest award, 

and 8 percent obtained a certificate, for a total attainment rate of 52 percent. However, as shown 

in table 9b, an additional 15 percent of bachelor’s degree seekers had not earned a degree, but 

had attended a 4-year institution. If obtaining any formal credential or transferring to a 4-year 

college is defined as a “successful” outcome for community college students, about two-thirds 

(67 percent) of 1992 high school graduates who initially enrolled in a community college with 

intentions of earning a bachelor’s degree had achieved such an outcome. 

Postsecondary Outcomes and Academic Preparedness

As might be expected, students who graduated from high school with lower levels of 

academic preparedness tended to attain postsecondary credentials at lower rates than their peers 

with higher levels of preparation. For example, two-thirds of students who had completed the 
Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community Colleges 

34 

Table 9a.—Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year

Table 9a.—institutions by December 1994 according to highest attainment as of 2000, by various student

Table 9a.—characteristics

Attained a Attained Attained

Total certificate associate’s bachelor’s

Student characteristics attained or license degree degree or higher

 Total 49.4 12.4 17.0 20.1

Highest level of education expected in 1992

 Any degree 49.9 11.3 17.5 21.1

 Less than 2 years of postsecondary; no degree 40.2 17.0 12.7 10.4

 Certificate; 2 or more years vocational 56.4 27.4 25.5 3.5

 Associate’s degree; more than 2 years college 40.6 12.6 18.6 9.4

 Bachelor’s or higher 51.6 8.5 16.0 27.1

 No degree; less than 2 years of postsecondary 40.2 17.0 12.7 10.4

Minimum basic curriculum in high school1

 Did not complete 44.9 15.3 17.9 11.8

 Completed 52.9 10.9 16.8 25.2

Reading proficiency in 19922

 Below Level 1 39.8 9.9 14.3 15.7

 Level 1 48.9 15.7 17.7 15.5

 Level 2 51.0 10.2 17.9 22.9

 Level 3 61.1 11.9 15.3 33.9

Mathematics proficiency in 19923

 Level 1 or below 44.5 16.5 18.9 9.1

 Level 2 to 3 50.7 10.2 18.0 22.5

 Level 4 to 5 60.5 11.5 15.0 34.1

4-year college qualification composite4

 Not qualified or minimally qualified 43.2 14.8 16.8 11.6

 Somewhat to highly qualified 62.5 7.7 18.6 36.2

Risk of dropping out of high school in 19885

 No risk factors 53.8 10.9 18.1 24.8

 One risk factor 45.1 14.2 16.6 14.3

 Two or more risk factors 36.9 11.2 14.5 11.2

Risk of not completing postsecondary education6

 No risk factors 57.3 9.3 19.7 28.3

 One risk factor 52.3 13.7 16.7 21.9

 Two or more risk factors 33.3 15.3 12.2 5.8

Months between high school graduation and postsecondary

 attendance

 0 to 4 months 52.6 11.6 17.7 23.4

 5 to 7 months 28.4 7.8 15.1 5.5

 More than 7 months 40.1 14.7 16.4 8.9

Enrollment status at first institution7

 Full-time 54.2 10.8 19.6 23.8

 Part-time 39.6 15.5 10.0 14.2

See notes at end of table.
Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community Colleges 

35 

Table 9a.—Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year

Table 9a.—institutions by December 1994 according to highest attainment as of 2000, by various student

Table 9a.—characteristics—Continued

Attained a Attained Attained

Total certificate associate’s bachelor’s

Student characteristics attained or license degree degree or higher

Gender

 Male 47.2 11.8 16.4 19.0

 Female 51.5 12.9 17.5 21.2

Race/ethnicity8

 American Indian 29.1 19.3 9.8 #

 Asian or Pacific Islander 43.5 7.4 6.6 29.5

 Black 43.3 16.6 18.5 8.1

 White 53.0 12.6 17.9 22.5

 Hispanic 36.1 8.3 15.0 12.7

Marital status in 1994

 Married 37.8 18.3 12.4 7.1

 Not married 50.2 12.0 17.3 21.0

Number of children in 1994

 None 50.3 12.0 17.0 21.3

 One or more 38.2 17.9 16.6 3.8

Socioeconomic status in 1992

 Low quartile 43.4 19.7 16.3 7.4

 Middle quartiles 48.2 11.4 18.6 18.2

 High quartile 57.5 9.3 13.7 34.5

#Rounds to zero.

1

Based on the “minimum standard” of the “New Basics” curriculum first advocated in A Nation at Risk. Student completed at least 4

years of English, 3 years of social studies, and 2 years each of science, mathematics, and foreign language.

2

Level 1: Simple reading comprehension including reproduction of detail and/or the author’s main thought. Level 2: Ability to make 

relatively simple inferences beyond the author’s main thought and/or understand and evaluate relatively abstract concepts. Level 3: 

Ability to make complex inferences or evaluative judgments that require piecing together multiple sources of information from the 

passage (Rock, Pollack, and Quinn 1995).

3

Level 1: Simple arithmetical operations on whole numbers; these were essentially single-step operations that rely on rote memory.

Level 2: Simple operations with decimals, fractions, powers, roots. Level 3: Simple problem solving, requiring the understanding of

low-level mathematical concepts. Level 4: Understanding of intermediate-level mathematical concepts and/or having the ability to

formulate multistep solutions to word problems. Level 5: Proficiency in solving complex, multistep word problems and/or the ability to

demonstrate knowledge of mathematics material found in advanced mathematics courses (Rock, Pollack, and Quinn 1995). 4

This variable provides an estimate of how well prepared the students who participated in NELS were for 4-year college-level work as

of 1994. The following variables were used as criteria: high school senior-year rank in class percentage, cumulative grade-point average

for academic courses, SAT combined test scores, ACT composite scores, and NELS 1992 mathematics and reading composite test

scores.

5

This variable assesses the sample member’s risk (at the time of the base-year survey) of later dropping out of high school. This variable

was constructed using the following six composite and questionnaire variables: single-parent family, low parent education, sibling

dropout, 3 or more hours at home alone, limited English proficiency, and low family income.

6

Represents an index of risk from 0–6 characteristics known to adversely affect postsecondary persistence and attainment. These 

characteristics are the student delayed enrollment between high school graduation and postsecondary entry, part-time attendance at

first institution, completed high school by certificate or GED, worked full time when first enrolled, student was a parent, and the student

was a single parent before or while enrolled.

7

Applies to those who were still enrolled in 1994. 

8

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988

(NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000, Data Analysis System.”
Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community Colleges 

36 

Table 9b.—Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year institutions

Table 9b.—by December 1994 according to attainment or attendance at 4-year institutions as of 2000,

Table 9b.—by various student characteristics

No degree attained, Total attained or

Student characteristics Total attained attended 4-year attended 4-year

 Total 49.4 12.5 61.9

Highest level of education expected in 1992

 Any degree 49.9 12.8 62.8

 Less than 2 years of postsecondary; no degree 40.2 9.6 49.7

 Certificate; 2 or more years vocational 56.4 4.4 60.9

 Associate’s degree; more than 2 years college 40.6 8.8 49.4

 Bachelor’s or higher 51.6 15.2 66.8

 No degree; less than 2 years of postsecondary 40.2 9.6 49.7

Minimum basic curriculum in high school1

 Did not complete 44.9 10.9 55.8

 Completed 52.9 13.4 66.3

Reading proficiency in 19922

 Below Level 1 39.8 22.4 62.2

 Level 1 48.9 11.3 60.2

 Level 2 51.0 11.8 62.8

 Level 3 61.1 13.6 74.7

Mathematics proficiency in 19923

 Level 1 or below 44.5 9.1 53.6

 Level 2 to 3 50.7 14.2 64.9

 Level 4 to 5 60.5 14.4 74.9

4-year college qualification composite4

 Not qualified or minimally qualified 43.2 12.0 55.1

 Somewhat to highly qualified 62.5 13.2 75.6

Risk of dropping out of high school in 19885

 No risk factors 53.8 13.0 66.7

 One risk factor 45.1 10.3 55.4

 Two or more risk factors 36.9 17.5 54.4

Risk of not completing postsecondary education6

 No risk factors 57.3 12.6 70.0

 One risk factor 52.3 13.3 65.6

 Two or more risk factors 33.3 11.2 44.5

Months between high school graduation and postsecondary attendance

 0 to 4 months 52.6 13.3 65.9

 5 to 7 months 28.4 11.7 40.1

 More than 7 months 40.1 10.2 50.2

Enrollment status at first institution7

 Full-time 54.2 13.2 67.4

 Part-time 39.6 10.5 50.2

See notes at end of table.
Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community Colleges 

37 

Table 9b.—Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year institutions

Table 9b.—by December 1994 according to attainment or attendance at 4-year institutions as of 2000,

Table 9b.—by various student characteristics—Continued

No degree attained, Total attained or

Student characteristics Total attained attended 4-year attended 4-year

Gender

 Male 47.2 15.8 63.0

 Female 51.5 9.4 60.9

Race/ethnicity8

 American Indian 29.1 6.7 35.8

 Asian or Pacific Islander 43.5 14.0 57.5

 Black 43.3 7.9 51.1

 White 53.0 13.2 66.2

 Hispanic 36.1 11.3 47.4

Marital status in 1994

 Married 37.8 10.2 48.1

 Not married 50.2 12.6 62.8

Number of children in 1994

 None 50.3 12.7 63.0

 One or more 38.2 9.2 47.4

Socioeconomic status in 1992

 Low quartile 43.4 7.5 50.8

 Middle quartiles 48.2 11.3 59.5

 High quartile 57.5 19.0 76.4

1

Based on the “minimum standard” of the “New Basics” curriculum first advocated in A Nation at Risk. Student completed at least 4

years of English, 3 years of social studies, and 2 years each of science and mathematics.

2

Level 1: Simple reading comprehension including reproduction of detail and/or the author’s main thought. Level 2: Ability to make 

relatively simple inferences beyond the author’s main thought and/or understand and evaluate relatively abstract concepts. Level 3: 

Ability to make complex inferences or evaluative judgments that require piecing together multiple sources of information from the 

passage (Rock, Pollack, and Quinn 1995).

3

Level 1: Simple arithmetical operations on whole numbers; these were essentially single-step operations that rely on rote memory.

Level 2: Simple operations with decimals, fractions, powers, roots. Level 3: Simple problem solving, requiring the understanding of

low-level mathematical concepts. Level 4: Understanding of intermediate-level mathematical concepts and/or having the ability to

formulate multistep solutions to word problems. Level 5: Proficiency in solving complex, multistep word problems and/or the ability to

demonstrate knowledge of mathematics material found in advanced mathematics courses (Rock, Pollack, and Quinn 1995). 4

This variable provides an estimate of how well prepared the students who participated in NELS were for 4-year college-level work as

of 1994. The following variables were used as criteria: high school senior-year rank in class percentage, cumulative grade-point average

for academic courses, SAT combined test scores, ACT composite scores, and NELS 1992 mathematics and reading composite test

scores.

5

This variable assesses the sample member’s risk (at the time of the base-year survey) of later dropping out of high school. This variable

was constructed using the following six composite and questionnaire variables: single-parent family, low parent education, sibling

dropout, 3 or more hours at home alone, limited English proficiency, and low family income.

6

Represents an index of risk from 0–6 characteristics known to adversely affect postsecondary persistence and attainment. These 

characteristics are the student delayed enrollment between high school graduation and postsecondary entry, part-time attendance at

first institution, completed high school by certificate or GED, worked full time when first enrolled, student was a parent, and the student

was a single parent before or while enrolled.

7

Applies to those who were still enrolled in 1994. 

8

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988

(NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000, Data Analysis System.”
Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community Colleges 

38 

minimum basic high school curriculum had attained or transferred to a 4-year institution, 

compared with 56 percent of their peers who did not complete that curriculum (table 9b). 

Rates of completion were also lower for students scoring at the lowest levels on high school 

assessments of proficiency in reading and mathematics. For example, about one-half (54 percent) 

of students who had scored in the lowest proficiency levels of mathematics as seniors in high 

school had earned a credential or attended a 4-year institution, compared with three-quarters who 

had scored in the highest levels tested (level 4 or 5). Similarly, students who scored at levels 1 or 

2 in reading proficiency were less likely than their peers who scored at level 3 to have attained or 

transferred (60 and 63 percent vs. 75 percent).21

Among NELS high school graduates who in 1988 had two or more risk factors associated 

with dropping out of high school, 54 percent of community college students had completed a 

degree or attended a 4-year institution by 2000, compared with 67 percent of students who had no 

dropout risk factors. Similarly, 44 percent of 1992 high school graduates who enrolled in a 

community college with two or more characteristics that placed them at risk of not completing 

their postsecondary education had completed a credential or attended a 4-year institution by 

2000, compared with 70 percent of students with no such risk factors and 66 percent with one 

risk factor. 

How long community college students waited to enroll in postsecondary education after 

high school graduation was also related to their completion of a degree or transfer. Two-thirds of 

those who enrolled in a community college within 4 months of high school graduation completed 

a formal award or attended a 4-year college or university, compared with 40 percent of those who 

delayed from 5 to 7 months and 50 percent who delayed from 7 to 24 months. 

Finally, as previously discussed, roughly one-third of 1992 high school graduates enrolled 

in a community college even though they may have been able to enroll in a 4-year institution 

based on their academic qualifications. These students were more likely than their peers who 

were not qualified or only minimally qualified to have earned a bachelor’s degree by 2000 (36 

percent vs. 12 percent) and also more likely to have earned any formal credential (62 percent vs. 

43 percent) (table 9a). 

Multivariate Analysis 

To take into account the interrelationship of academic preparation indicators, risk factors, 

and demographic characteristics that may influence students’ likelihood of completing a 

 

21There were too few cases who scored below level 1 to find a significant difference between this group and others. 
Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community Colleges 

39 

postsecondary credential, a multivariate analysis was conducted on the NELS data. (See 

appendix B for a detailed description of the methodology used.) The multivariate method used in 

this analysis is an approach sometimes referred to as “communality analysis.” Multiple linear 

regression was used to adjust for the covariation among a list of control variables, which were 

selected based solely on the descriptive analysis rather than on a theoretical model, and the 

regression model was not reduced. The dependent variable was a dichotomous outcome (yes/no) 

indicating whether a student had either attained a formal credential or attended a 4-year 

institution. 

The least squares regression coefficients, expressed as percentages, are displayed in table 

10. Significant coefficients represent the observed differences that remain between the analysis 

group (such as those with the highest mathematics proficiency scores) and the comparison group 

(those with lowest level scores) after controlling for the relationships of all the selected 

independent variables. For example, the least squares coefficient for scoring at level 4 or 5 in 

mathematics is 14.5. This means that compared with those who scored at level 1 or below, about 

15 percent more of the students with high level scores would be expected to have a successful 

outcome after controlling for the relationships among the other independent variables. 

The first column of table 10 contains the unadjusted percentages—that is, the percentages 

before taking into account the interrelationships among the other variables. Numbers with 

asterisks indicate that the percentage of students in that category is significantly different from 

the percentage in the reference category. 

After adjusting for the relationships among the independent variables listed in the table, 

three variables remained significantly associated with degree attainment or 4-year transfer. 

Students who scored in the highest mathematics proficiency level (vs. the lowest levels), students 

who completed the minimum basic high school curriculum (vs. not completing), and those who 

enrolled in college with no characteristics that placed them at risk of not completing their 

postsecondary education (vs. those with two or more factors) were all more likely than their 

counterparts to have attained or transferred.22 

On the other hand, after controlling for all other variables, the difference between rates of 

attainment or transfer between the highest and lowest reading proficiency scores was no longer 

significant.23 Similarly, the difference between students with and without factors that had placed 

 

22The variable indicating students’ qualification for a 4-year college was not included in the model with the NELS proficiency 

scores and high school coursetaking because the scores and high school coursetaking are components of the qualification 

composite; therefore, the variables are highly intercorrelated. 

23Holding related variables constant typically reduces the magnitude of the differences between the unadjusted percentages. In 

some cases the difference is no longer significant. 
Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community Colleges 

40 

Table 10.—Among 1992 high school graduates who first enrolled in a community college by December 1994

Table 10.—and who had intentions to earn a formal credential, percentage who had attained a degree or

Table 10.—attended a 4-year college by 2000, and least squares coefficients and standard errors, by various

Table 10.—student characteristics

 Unadjusted Least squares Standard 

Student characteristics1 percentage2

n coefficient3n error4n

 Total 61.1 56.5 7.35 

Gender

 Female 61.3 -0.4 3.59 

 Male 60.9 † † 

Race/ethnicity5

 American Indian ‡ -8.2 17.27 

 Asian or Pacific Islander 53.1 -11.3 8.62 

 Black

 Hispanic 50.6 -6.6 5.85 

 White 64.6 † † 

Socioeconomic status in 1992

 Middle quartile 59.8 1.6 5.41 

 High quartile 73.5* 11.9 6.26 

 Low quartile 49.8 † † 

Reading proficiency in 19926

 Level 2 62.7 -3.3 4.09 

 Level 3 75.1* 1.1 5.60 

 Level 1 or below 60.2 † † 

Mathematics proficiency in 19927

 Level 2 or 3 63.9* 7.8 4.41 

 Level 4 or 5 75.7* 14.5* 5.63 

 Level 1 or below 54.4 † † 

Minimum basic curriculum in high school8

 Completed 67.0* 9.0* 3.78 

 Did not complete 53.4 † † 

Risk of dropping out of high school in 19889

 One or more risk factors 52.7* -6.1 3.91 

 No risk factors 67.1 † † 

See notes at end of table.

50.3 
Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community Colleges 

41 

Table 10.—Among 1992 high school graduates who first enrolled in a community college by December 1994

Table 10.—and who had intentions to earn a formal credential, percentage who had attained a degree or

Table 10.—attended a 4-year college by 2000 and least squares coefficients and standard errors, by various

Table 10.—student characteristics—Continued

 Unadjusted Least squares Standard 

Student characteristics1 percentage2

n coefficient3n error4n

Risk of leaving postsecondary education10

 One risk factor 66.3 -3.3 4.01 

 Two or more risk factors 45.1* -19.9* 4.62 

 No risk factors 67.2 † † 

†Not applicable for the reference group.

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

*p < 0.05. 1

The italicized group in each category is the reference group being compared. 2

The estimates are from the NELS:88/2000 Data Analysis System.

3

Coefficients can be interpreted as the number of percentage points over or under the comparison group once the covariation of

all variables is taken into account (see appendix B). For example, the coefficient for mathematics proficiency score of 4 or 5 is 

14.5, which means that about 15 percent more students at this proficiency would be expected to attain a degree or enroll in a 

4-year institution compared to those who scored at level 1 or below. Asterisks indicate the coefficient is statistically different 

from the comparison group (p < 0.05). 4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and

Hispanic includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

6

Level 1: Simple reading comprehension including reproduction of detail and/or the author’s main thought. Level 2: Ability to

make relatively simple inferences beyond the author’s main thought and/or understand and evaluate relatively abstract concepts.

Level 3: Ability to make complex inferences or evaluative judgments that require piecing together multiple sources of

information from the passage (Rock, Pollack, and Quinn 1995).

7

Level 1: Simple arithmetical operations on whole numbers; these were essentially single-step operations that rely on rote

memory. Level 2: Simple operations with decimals, fractions, powers, roots. Level 3: Simple problem solving, requiring the

understanding of low-level mathematical concepts. Level 4: Understanding of intermediate-level mathematical concepts and/or

having the ability to formulate multistep solutions to word problems. Level 5: Proficiency in solving complex, multistep word

problems and/or the ability to demonstrate knowledge of mathematics material found in advanced mathematics courses (Rock,

Pollack, and Quinn 1995).

8

Based on the “minimum standard” of the “New Basics” curriculum first advocated in A Nation at Risk. Student completed at

least 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, and 2 years each of science and mathematics.

9

This variable assesses the sample member’s risk (at the time of the base-year survey) of later dropping out of high school. This

variable was constructed using the following six composite and questionnaire variables: single-parent family, low parent

education, sibling dropout, 3 or more hours at home alone, limited English proficiency, and low family income.

10Represents an index of risk from 0–6 characteristics known to adversely affect postsecondary persistence and attainment. These

characteristics are the student delayed enrollment between high school graduation and postsecondary entry, part-time attendance

at first institution, completed high school by certificate or GED, worked full time when first enrolled, student was a parent, and

the student was a single parent before or while enrolled.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of

1988 (NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000, Data Analysis System.”
Completion Among 1992 High School Graduates Who Enrolled in Community Colleges 

42 

them at risk of dropping out of high school were no longer significant. These results may in part 

be due to the association between reading scores or high school dropout risk and the presence of 

characteristics that place students at risk of not completing their postsecondary education; once 

postsecondary risk was held constant, the association between reading proficiency or high school 

dropout risk with the outcome diminished. 

Finally, before controlling for the relationship among the independent variables, students 

from families in the highest socioeconomic (SES) quartile were more likely than their peers in 

the lowest quartile to have attained a credential or transferred to a 4-year institution. However, 

once students’ academic preparation and other variables were held constant, the socioeconomic 

status difference no longer remained. One explanation for this result is that low SES students are 

more likely to be at risk of dropping out of high school and when holding dropout risk constant, 

the association between SES and the outcome diminished. Alternatively, the result suggests that 

students may be able to overcome their SES disadvantage with adequate academic preparation. 
43 

Completion and Employment Outcomes 

For many students, the work world competes with postsecondary education, and both the 

lure or, in some cases, the necessity of work can lead them to leave postsecondary education 

without completing a certificate or degree. 

In both BPS and NELS, respondents were asked to assess the impact of their postsecondary 

education on a variety of labor market outcomes. The results of both surveys indicate that 

students who completed a certificate or degree were more likely to say that their postsecondary 

education had a positive impact on their employment prospects than those who left without 

completing. 

Community College Completion and Employment Outcomes: BPS 

In 1998, about 3 years after they first enrolled, BPS students who were no longer enrolled 

were asked to assess the value of their postsecondary education on their current employment. As 

was reported in an earlier study, about 44 percent of community college students were not 

enrolled and had not earned any credential by this time, and about 8 percent had earned either a 

certificate or an associate’s degree (Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000, table 2.1a). While a 

relatively small percentage had earned a credential within 3 years, table 11 illustrates differences 

between these students and their peers who left with no credential with respect to the value that 

students placed on their postsecondary education. 

Table 11.—Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students first enrolled in public 2-year institutions, 

Table 11.—and who were employed and not enrolled in 1998, percentage who reported that their enrollment

Table 11.—improved their employment outcomes, by degree attainment

Enrollment Enrollment

Enrollment increased job increased job

Degree attainment improved salary responsibilities opportunities

 Total 37.1 51.1 52.1

Attainment as of 1998

 Attained any degree or certificate 62.6 71.3 68.0

 Did not attain 29.3 47.5 47.3

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary 

Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).
Completion and Employment Outcomes 

44 

Among BPS community college students who were not enrolled in 1998, roughly one-third 

(37 percent) reported that their education resulted in a higher salary, and roughly one-half said 

that their education resulted in increased job responsibilities or opportunities. Those who had 

earned a credential were more likely than those who had not to report that their education 

resulted in higher salaries (63 percent vs. 29 percent) or improved job responsibilities (71 percent 

vs. 48 percent). While it also appears that students with and without credentials differed in their 

likelihood of reporting increased job opportunities, there was not enough statistical evidence to 

draw this conclusion. 

Community College Completion or Transfer and Employment Outcomes: 

NELS 

In 2000, 6 to 8 years after the NELS 1992 high school graduates had first enrolled in 

community colleges, 60 percent or more reported that their postsecondary education contributed 

positively to a range of employment outcomes including higher salary (61 percent), better jobs 

(66 percent), more responsibility (69 percent), more promotion opportunities (62 percent), and 

improved job performance (64 percent) (table 12). Students who had attained a bachelor’s degree 

were more likely than those who had earned either a certificate or associate’s degree to report 

positive outcomes on all five measures of employment outcomes. At the same time, students who 

had attained a certificate or associate’s degree were more likely than students who had left 

Table 12.—Percentage of 1992 high school graduates first enrolled in public 2-year institutions by December

Table 12.—1994 according to whether postsecondary education led to various employment improvements,

Table 12.—by attainment as of 2000

More Promotion Improved

Higher Better respon- oppor- job perforAttainment as of 2000 salary jobs sibility tunities mance

 Total 60.8 66.4 69.0 62.1 64.1

Community college student attainment

 Attained any degree or certificate 79.7 84.3 84.8 78.9 78.3

 Attained certificate or license 72.9 78.2 78.9 67.7 70.5

 Attained associate’s degree 75.5 79.3 79.5 72.6 76.4

 Attained bachelor’s degree or higher 87.5 92.3 93.0 91.2 84.8

 No degree or certificate attained

 Ever attended 4-year institution 65.3 68.8 73.6 67.8 67.9

 Never attended 4-year institution, enrolled 2000 37.5 53.2 57.3 41.3 53.6

 Never attended 4-year institution, not enrolled 35.3 41.5 45.4 39.0 42.9

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of

1988 (NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000, Data Analysis System.”

Postsecondary education led to:
Completion and Employment Outcomes 

45 

postsecondary education with no credential and had never attended a 4-year institution to report 

positive impacts. Among students who left without a degree, those who had attended a 4-year 

institution were more likely than those who had never attended to report positive impacts on 

employment outcomes. 

In summary, students who had attained a formal credential were more likely than students 

who had left with no degree or certificate to cite a positive effect on employment. However, 

students who had transferred to a 4-year institution and attended without attaining any credential 

were more likely than students who had left 2-year institutions without any credential to report 

that their postsecondary education contributed positively to their employment outcomes. 
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47 

Summary and Conclusions 

In community colleges, attainment of a certificate or degree (including transfer to a 4-year 

institution) appears to be an appropriate measure for about 90 percent of students beginning their 

postsecondary education in public 2-year institutions. Although educational objectives vary 

among students enrolled in community colleges—older students, for example, are more likely to 

pursue a certificate while younger students are more likely to seek an associate’s degree—most 

community college students say that they desire a formal credential, either from the community 

college or through transfer to a 4-year institution. 

Controlling for student objective and ignoring those who do not seek a certificate or degree, 

between 40 and 50 percent of students who first enrolled in a community college had attained a 

formal credential within the time frame of the two surveys studied (6 to 8 years). An additional 

12 to 13 percent had not attained a credential but had transferred to a 4-year institution. 

For students who had completed a degree, it took them longer than might be expected in 

large part because they attended on a part-time basis. For example, students in associate’s degree 

programs took an average of 3 1/2 years to complete and many of those in bachelor’s degree 

programs were still enrolled after 6 years. 

The reasons for not completing are complex, including poor academic preparation and a 

significant time commitment required to complete a credential, as well as other factors such as 

family responsibilities that increase the risk that students will not achieve their postsecondary 

education objectives. Better preparation and fewer risk factors were associated with higher rates 

of completion. 

Finally, while many students who leave community colleges without completing a 

credential report that their postsecondary experience favorably affected their labor market 

opportunities, students who completed were more likely to report positive impacts than students 

who did not. 
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49 

References 

Berkner, L., and Chavez, L. (1997). Access to Postsecondary Education for the 1992 High 

School Graduates (NCES 98–105). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for 

Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 

Berkner, L., He, S., and Cataldi, E. (2002). Descriptive Summary of 1995–96 Beginning 

Postsecondary Students: Six Years Later (NCES 2003–151). U.S. Department of Education, 

National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 

Berkner, L., Horn, L., and Clune, M. (2000). Descriptive Summary of 1995–96 Beginning 

Postsecondary Students: Three Years Later (NCES 2000–154). U.S. Department of 

Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government 

Printing Office. 

Cohen, A., and Brawer, F. (2002). The American Community College (4th ed.). San Francisco: 

Jossey-Bass. 

Grubb, N. (1999). Honored But Invisible. New York: Routledge. 

Horn, L., Peter, K., and Rooney, K. (2002). Profile of Undergraduates in U.S. Postsecondary 

Institutions: 1999–2000 (NCES 2002–168). U.S. Department of Education, National Center 

for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 

National Commission on Excellence in Education. (1983). A Nation at Risk: The Imperative for 

Educational Reform. Washington, DC: Author. 

Phillipe, K.A., and Patton, M. (1999). National Profile of Community Colleges: Trends and 

Statistics (3rd ed.). Washington, DC: Community College Press, American Association of 

Community Colleges. 

Rock, D.A., Pollack, J.M., and Quinn, P. (1995). Psychometric Report for the NELS:88 Base 

Year Through Second Follow-up (NELS 95–382). U.S. Department of Education, National 

Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 
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51 

Appendix A—Glossary 

This glossary describes the variables used in this report. The items were taken directly from the NELS:88/2000, the 

NPSAS:2000, and the BPS:96/01 Data Analysis Systems (DAS), an NCES software application that generates tables 

from the data (see appendix B for a description of the DAS). The glossary index lists the variables as they appear in 

the report for each survey. The glossary is in alphabetical order by variable name (displayed along the right-hand 

column). 

GLOSSARY INDEX

POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION CHARACTERISTICS

BPS

Degree expected at first institution .............. DGEXPY1 

First institution level and control ................... ITNPSAS 

Enrollment intensity first month enrolled...ENINFMNP 

First degree program 1995–96........................PGM1Y1 

Purpose for enrolling 1995–96 .......................PGM6Y1 

Transfer or degree expectation 1995–96.........PGM7Y1 

Enrollment outcome as of 2001 ................... PROUT2B 

Cumulative persistence outcome 

1997–98 .................................................. PROUTYX3 

Transfer institution types 2001 ...................TRINTY2B 

Average months enrolled to degree...........ENNUHD2B 

Average elapsed months to degree..............ELFMHI2B 

NELS

Enrollment status at first institution ........... ENRLSTA1 

Community college student attainment .........F4CCDEG 

Date first attended postsecondary 

education.......................................................F4EFMY 

Sector of first institution attended................F4EFSECT 

Months between high school graduation 

and postsecondary attendance .....................HSTOPSE 

NPSAS

Institution type .............................................. AIDSECT 

Year first enrolled in postsecondary 

education.....................................................PSECTYR 

EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES

BPS

Enrollment improved job opportunity..........JFEOPPB1 

Enrollment increased responsibility............. JFERESB1 

Enrollment improved salary.........................JFESALB1 

NELS

Postsecondary education impact on 

salary........................................................... F4EHSAL 

Postsecondary education impact on jobs........ F4EJOBS 

Postsecondary education impact on job 

performance ................................................. F4EPERF 

Postsecondary education impact on 

responsibility ...............................................F4ERESP 

Postsecondary education impact on 

promotion opportunities ............................. F4EPROM 

STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS

BPS

Age during first month enrolled .....................SBAGFM 

Gender.......................................................SBGENDER 

Race/ethnicity (including Hispanic) ................SBRACE 

Postsecondary risk index 1995–96..............SBRSK1Y1 

NELS

1988 risk of dropping out of high school ... BYATRISK 

4-year college qualification composite........CQCOMV2 

Mathematics proficiency 1992 ...................F22XMPRO 

Reading proficiency 1992 ...........................F22XRPRO 

Highest level of education expected 

1992............................................................ F2ASPIRE 

Minimum basic curriculum 1992 ..............F2RNWB5A 

Socioeconomic status ..................................... F2SES1C 

Marital status 1994....................................... F3MARST 

Race/ethnicity 1994......................................... F3RACE 

Gender as of 1994 .............................................. F3SEX 

Number of children 1994 ..........................NUMCHILD 

Postsecondary risk factors in 1988..............RISKINDX 

NPSAS

Age as of 12/31/99 .................................................AGE 

Gender............................................................GENDER 

WEIGHT VARIABLES

BPS

Longitudinal weight 96/2001 ........................B01LWT2 

Longitudinal weight 96/98 (for 

employment outcomes)................................. B98AWT 

NELS

High school graduate weight 1992.............F3QWT92G 

NPSAS

Study weight............................................... STUDYWT 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

52 

Age as of 12/31/99 (NPSAS:2000) AGE

In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

18 years or younger 

19–23 years 

24 years or older 

Institution type (NPSAS:2000) AIDSECT

Indicates the level and control of student’s institution used for financial aid. Institution level concerns the 

institution’s highest offering, and control concerns the source of revenue and control of operations. Used to filter 

sample for those enrolled in public 2-year institutions. 

Longitudinal weight 96/2001 (BPS:96/2001) B01LWT2

Weight for longitudinal analysis of students who responded in both NPSAS:1996 and BPS:2001. 

Longitudinal weight 96/98 (for employment outcomes) (BPS:96/2001) B98AWT

Weight for longitudinal analysis of students who responded in both NPSAS:1996 and BPS:98. 

1988 risk of dropping out of high school (NELS:88/2000) BYATRISK

The number of characteristics that placed 8th-graders at risk of dropping out of high school. These factors included 

single-parent family, parent with no high school diploma, limited English proficiency, family income less than 

$15,000, sibling dropped out of high school, and home alone more than 3 hours a day. Data were drawn from the 

1988 student and parent questionnaires. This variable was calculated for any 1988 respondent who had at least one 

valid answer for any of the six items. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

No risk factors 

One or more risk factors 

4-year college qualification composite (NELS:88/2000) CQCOMV2 

This variable provides an estimate of how well prepared for 4-year college level work the students who participated 

in NELS were as of 1994. The following variables were used as criteria: (1) high school senior year rank in class, (2) 

cumulative grade-point average for academic courses, (3) SAT combined test scores, (4) ACT composite scores, and 

(5) NELS 1992 mathematics and reading composite test score percentiles. Since admission standards and 

requirements vary widely, the approach was to use the weighted distribution of these five criteria among those NELS 

graduating seniors who first enrolled in a 4-year college in order to set the levels of qualification. The variable was 

made for all NELS high school seniors. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Not qualified or minimally qualified 

Somewhat or very highly qualified 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

53 

Degree expected at first institution (BPS:96/2001) DGEXPY1 

Highest degree expected at the first institution attended in 1995–96. Responses for any degree of bachelor’s or 

higher plus those planning to transfer to a 4-year institution were coded as bachelor’s/transfer. Those planning no 

degree at that institution or planning to transfer from one less-than-4-year institution to another were also coded as 

having no degree expectation. Responses of higher degrees than were offered at the institution were assumed to be 

planning to transfer. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

None 

Any credential or transfer 

 Certificate 

 Associate’s degree 

 Bachelor’s degree or transfer to 4-year 

Average elapsed months to degree (BPS:96/2001) ELFMHI2B 

For students who attained a degree or certificate, the average number of months elapsed between first enrollment and 

the highest degree earned. 

Enrollment intensity first month enrolled (BPS:96/2001) ENINFMNP 

Enrollment intensity at first institution in the first month enrolled. Derived for all respondents. 

Full-time 

Part-time 

Average months enrolled to degree (BPS:96/2001) ENNUHD2B

For students who attained a degree or certificate, the average number of months enrolled between first enrollment 

and the highest degree earned. 

Enrollment status at first institution (NELS:88/2000) ENRLSTA1

Student response to the question “While attending your institution during this period, were you enrolled full-time, 

half-time but less than full-time, or less than half-time?” The question was asked of students enrolled in 

postsecondary education during the 1994 followup. If students were no longer enrolled or they had never enrolled in 

postsecondary education, they were not asked the question. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Full-time 

Part-time 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

54 

Mathematics proficiency 1992 (NELS:88/2000) F22XMPRO 

Level of proficiency on mathematics test in 1992. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Level 1 or below Simple arithmetical operations on whole numbers: essentially 

single-step operations which rely on rote memory. 

Level 2 or 3 Level 2: Simple operations with decimals, fractions, powers, 

roots. Level 3: Simple problem solving, requiring the 

understanding of low-level mathematical concepts. 

Level 4 or 5 Level 4: Understanding of intermediate-level mathematical 

concepts and/or having the ability to formulate multistep 

solutions to word problems. Level 5: Proficiency in solving 

complex multistep word problems and/or the ability to 

demonstrate knowledge of mathematics material found in 

advanced mathematics courses. 

Reading proficiency 1992 (NELS:88/2000) F22XRPRO

Level of proficiency on reading test in 1992. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Level 1 or below Level 1: Simple reading comprehension including reproduction 

of detail and/or the author’s main thought. 

Level 2 Ability to make relatively simple inferences beyond the author’s 

main thought and/or understand and evaluate relatively abstract 

concepts. 

Level 3 Ability to make complex inferences or evaluative judgments that 

require piecing together multiple sources of information from the 

passage. 

Highest level of education expected 1992 (NELS:88/2000) F2ASPIRE

Student response to the question: “As things stand now, how far in school do you think you will get?” In this analysis 

the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Less than 2 years of postsecondary education (not including a credential) 

Vocational credential or more than 2 years of vocational educational 

2 or more years of college including associate’s degree 

Bachelor’s degree or higher 

Minimum basic curriculum 1992 (NELS:88/2000) F2RNWB5A

Indicates whether a student completed the “minimum standard” of what was called the “New Basics” curriculum first 

advocated in A Nation at Risk: 4 years of English, 3 years of social studies, and 2 years each of mathematics and 

science. 

Did not complete 

Completed 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

55 

Socioeconomic status (NELS:88/2000) F2SES1C 

Socioeconomic status was estimated in 1992 using 1988 parent questionnaire data, 1988 student questionnaire data, 

or New Student Supplement data from subsequent rounds. In this analysis the percentiles were aggregated as follows: 

Low quartile 

Middle quartiles 

High quartile 

Marital status 1994 (NELS:88/2000) F3MARST

Student response to the question: “Are you currently single; never married; married; divorced/separated; widowed; 

or not married but living in a marriage-like relationship?” In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Married 

Not married 

High school graduate weight 1992 (NELS:88/2000) F3QWT92G

Analysis weight used for the NELS sample that represents respondents who received a high school diploma between 

September 1, 1991 and August 31, 1992 or respondents whose diploma receipt date is not known but began their 

postsecondary education during the period of June 1992 through October 1992. 

Race/ethnicity 1994 (NELS:88/2000) F3RACE

Student response to the question: “What is your racial or ethnic background?” 

Asian or Pacific Islander A person having origins in any of the peoples of the Far East, 

Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, or the Pacific Islands. 

This includes people from China, Japan, Korea, the Philippine 

Islands, India, and Vietnam, and all Pacific Islands, including 

Hawaii and Samoa. 

Hispanic, regardless of race A person of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central or South 

American, or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race. 

Black, not of Hispanic origin A person having origins in any of the black racial groups of 

Africa. 

White, not of Hispanic origin A person having origins in any of the original peoples of Europe, 

North Africa, or the Middle East. 

American Indian/Alaska Native A person having origins in any of the original peoples of North 

America and who maintains cultural identification through tribal 

affiliation or community recognition. 

Other A person having origins in a race not listed above. 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

56 

Gender as of 1994 (NELS:88/2000) F3SEX

Corrected gender. 1992 data for gender were preloaded into the CATI instrument and displayed to the interviewer. 

There were no missing values in the 1992 data and the question was never asked. In a few instances it became 

apparent to the interviewer that the 1992 value was incorrect and the value was corrected. 

Male 

Female 

Community college student attainment (NELS:88/2000) F4CCDEG

This variable shows the highest degree earned as of 2000, or if respondents did not attain, whether they ever enrolled 

in a 4-year institution, including whether they were still enrolled. Asked of respondents who began in a public 2-year 

institution. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Attained any degree or certificate 

 Attained certificate or license 

 Attained associate’s degree 

 Attained bachelor’s degree or higher 

No degree or certificate attained 

 Ever attended 4-year institution 

 Never attended 4-year institution, enrolled 2000 

 Never attended 4-year institution, not enrolled 

Date first attended postsecondary education (NELS:88/2000) F4EFMY

Date of first attendance in postsecondary education of those respondents who attended a postsecondary institution. 

Used to filter the analysis sample to those who enrolled by 1994. 

Sector of first institution attended (NELS:88/2000) F4EFSECT

Institutional sector of first institution attended used to filter sample to include only those enrolled in public 2-year 

institution. 

Postsecondary education impact on salary (NELS:88/2000) F4EHSAL

Student response to the question asked in 2000: “Would you say that your schooling after high school has provided 

you with opportunities for higher salary than you could have gotten had you not attended?” 

Yes 

No 

Postsecondary education impact on jobs (NELS:88/2000) F4EJOBS

Student response to the question asked in 2000: “Would you say that your schooling after high school has provided 

you with opportunities for better jobs than you could have gotten had you not attended?” 

Yes 

No 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

57 

Postsecondary education impact on job performance (NELS:88/2000) F4EPERF

Student response to the question asked in 2000: “Would you say that your schooling after high school has provided 

you with better job performance than you could have gotten had you not attended?” 

Yes 

No 

Postsecondary education impact on promotion opportunities (NELS:88/2000) F4EPROM

Student response to the question asked in 2000: “Would you say that your schooling after high school has provided 

you with opportunities for more promotions than you could have gotten had you not attended?” 

Yes 

No 

Postsecondary education impact on responsibility (NELS:88/2000) F4ERESP

Student response to the question asked in 2000: “Would you say that your schooling after high school has provided 

you with more responsibility than you could have gotten had you not attended?” 

Yes 

No 

Gender (NPSAS:2000) GENDER

Male 

Female 

Months between high school graduation and postsecondary attendance (NELS:88/2000) HSTOPSE

The number of elapsed months between the date of high school graduation and enrollment in postsecondary 

education. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

0 to 4 months 

5–7 months 

More than 7 (up to 24 months) 

First institution level and control (BPS:96/2001) ITNPSAS

Level and control of the institution used to filter sample to include only those enrolled in public 2-year institutions. 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

58 

Enrollment improved job opportunity (BPS:96/2001) JFEOPPB1 

Based on student response to question asked in 1998: “Has attending your most recent institution provided you with 

opportunities for better jobs than you could have gotten had you not attended that institution?” Respondents who 

held more than one job after graduating or leaving school were asked to focus on the one job in which they worked 

the most hours per week. Applies only to those who were working and not enrolled in 1998. 

Yes 

No

Enrollment increased responsibility (BPS:96/2001) JFERESB1 

Based on student response to question asked in 1998: “Are you able to take on more responsibility on the job than 

you would have had you not attended your institution?” Respondents who held more than one job after graduating or 

leaving school were asked to focus on the one job in which they worked the most hours per week. Applies only to 

those who were working and not enrolled in 1998. 

Yes 

No 

Enrollment improved salary (BPS:96/2001) JFESALB1

Based on student response to question asked in 1998: “Are you able to earn higher salaries than you would have had 

you not attended your institution?” Respondents who held more than one job after graduating or leaving school were 

asked to focus on the one job in which they worked the most hours per week. Applies only to those who were 

working and not enrolled in 1998. 

Yes 

No 

Number of children 1994 (NELS:88/2000) NUMCHILD

Student response to the question: “How many children have you had?” Includes only those born to the respondent. In 

this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

None 

One or more 

First degree program 1995–96 (BPS:96/2001) PGM1Y1

The first type of degree program in which the student was enrolled at the first institution attended. Composite 

variable based on student-reported degree program, highest degree expected at the first institution, major at the first 

institution, and institution-reported program 

Certificate 

Associate’s degree—applied fields 

Associate’s degree—liberal arts/undeclared 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

59 

Purpose for enrolling 1995–96 (BPS:96/2001) PGM6Y1 

Purpose for enrolling at the first institution, based on prior response to highest degree expected at the institution. The 

wording of this question varied depending on the student’s expectations regarding the receipt of a degree from the 

first institution. Students who did not expect to receive any degree or expected to receive a vocational certificate 

were asked: “Are you enrolled for a job-related reason or some other reason?” All others were asked: “What is your 

primary reason for enrolling in this school?” In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Job skills 

Degree or certificate 

Transfer to 4-year 

Other (includes transfer to other institutions and personal enrichment) 

Transfer or degree expectation 1995–96 (BPS:96/2001) PGM7Y1

Composite variable based on program/purpose variables PGM2Y1 through PGM5Y1 to determine students’ 

intentions to obtain a degree and/or to transfer. Students who responded that they intended to transfer to a 4-year 

institution on any of the variables were coded as having transfer expectations; the others were coded as having no 4-

year institution transfer expectations. Those who indicated on any of the variables that they did not intend to get a 

degree at the first institution (including transfers as non-degree expectations) were coded as having no degree 

expectation at that institution; the others were coded as having degree expectations. Asked only of students 

beginning at less-than-4-year institutions only. 

No transfer, no degree/certificate 

No transfer, degree/certificate 

Transfer, no degree/certificate 

Transfer, degree/certificate 

Enrollment outcome as of 2001 (BPS:96/2001) PROUT2B

This variable is a comparison of the respondent’s attainment or level of enrollment and enrollment outcome at the 

first institution at the end of academic year 2000–01. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Total attained 

 Certificate 

 Associate’s degree 

 Bachelor’s degree 

No degree, still enrolled 4-year 

No degree, transferred to 4-year 

No degree, no 4-year 

Cumulative persistence outcome 1997–98 (BPS:96/2001) PROUTYX3

Cumulative outcome of enrollment at the end of academic year 1997–98. Used for examining employment outcomes 

for those students not enrolled and working in 1998. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Attained any degree or certificate 

No degree, not enrolled 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

60 

Year first enrolled in postsecondary education (NPSAS:2000) PSECTYR

Year that the student first enrolled in postsecondary education. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as 

follows: 

First enrolled before 1999–2000 

First enrolled in 1999–2000 

Postsecondary risk factors in 1988 (NELS:88/2000) RISKINDX

Represents an index of risk from 0–6 characteristics associated with not completing postsecondary education. 

Characteristics are delayed enrollment between high school graduation and postsecondary entry, part-time attendance 

at first institution, completed high school by certificate or GED, worked full time when first enrolled, if respondent 

has a child, and single parent before or while enrolled. BPS risk variable has an additional characteristic—being 

financially independent—which applies primarily to adult students 24 years or older. In this analysis the variable was 

aggregated as follows: 

No risk factors 

One risk factor 

Two or more risk factors 

Age during first month enrolled (BPS:96/2001) SBAGFM

Respondent’s age, calculated from date of birth and first month enrolled, on the first day of the first month enrolled 

in postsecondary education. In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

18 years or younger 

19–23 years 

24 years or older 

Gender (BPS:96/2001) SBGENDER

Student gender based on student report, institution-reported gender, or gender reported on the FAFSA. 

Male 

Female 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

61 

Race/ethnicity (including Hispanic) (BPS:96/2001) SBRACE 

Race/ethnicity (including Hispanic). Student response to CATI question: “What is your race?” 

White, non-Hispanic See F3RACE 

Black, non-Hispanic See F3RACE 

Hispanic See F3RACE 

Asian/Pacific Islander See F3RACE 

American Indian/Alaskan Native See F3RACE 

Other See F3RACE 

Postsecondary risk index 1995–96 (BPS:96/2001) SBRSK1Y1

Represents an index of risk from 0–7 characteristics associated with not completing postsecondary education. 

Characteristics include: delayed enrollment, high school dropout or GED recipient, part-time enrollment, financial 

independence (for financial aid purposes), having dependents other than spouse, single-parent status, and working 

full time while enrolled (35 hours or more). In this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

None 

One or more 

Study weight (NPSAS:2000) STUDYWT 

Weight for all students in the study, including those without a telephone interview. 

Transfer institution types 2001 (BPS:96/2001) TRINTY2B

Indicates whether or not the respondents had ever transferred: if yes, had they ever transferred to 4-year or public 2-

year institutions. Four-year institutions included public, private not-for-profit, and private for-profit institutions. In 

this analysis the variable was aggregated as follows: 

Transferred to 4-year institution 

Transferred to other institution or no transfer 
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63 

Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

The 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study 

The 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:2000) is a 

comprehensive nationwide study conducted by the U.S. Department of Education’s National 

Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to determine how students and their families pay for 

postsecondary education.24 It also describes demographic and other characteristics of students 

enrolled. The study is based on a nationally representative sample of all students in 

postsecondary education institutions, including undergraduate, graduate, and first-professional 

students. For NPSAS, information was obtained from more than 900 postsecondary institutions 

on approximately 50,000 undergraduate, 9,000 graduate, and 3,000 first-professional students. 

They represented about 16.5 million undergraduates, 2.4 million graduate students, and 300,000 

first-professional students who were enrolled at some time between July 1, 1999 and June 30, 

2000. 

The institutional response rate was 97 percent and the weighted overall student interview 

response rate was 65.6 percent.25 Because the student telephone interview response rate for 

NPSAS:2000 was less than 70 percent in some institutional sectors, an analysis was conducted to 

determine if Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) estimates were significantly biased 

due to CATI nonresponse. Considerable information was known for CATI nonrespondents, and 

these data were used to analyze and reduce the bias. The distributions of several variables using 

the design-based, adjusted weights for study respondents (study weights) were found to be biased 

before CATI nonresponse adjustments. The CATI nonresponse and poststratification procedures, 

however, reduced the bias for these variables, and the remaining relative bias ranged from 0 to 

0.35 percent.26 

 

24For more information on the NPSAS survey, consult U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics,

Methodology Report for the 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NCES 2002–152) (Washington, DC: 2001). 

Additional information is also available at the NPSAS Web site http://nces.ed.gov/npsas. 

25U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 1999–

2000 (NPSAS:2000), Methodology Report. 

26For nonresponse bias analysis, see U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National 

Postsecondary Student Aid Study, 1999–2000 (NPSAS:2000), CATI Nonresponse Bias Analysis Report (NCES 2002–03) 

(Washington, DC: 2002), available at http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=200203. 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

64 

Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study 

The Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS) Longitudinal Study is composed of the 

students who participated in the 1995–96 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study 

(NPSAS:96). The BPS sample consists of approximately 12,000 students identified in 

NPSAS:96 who were beginning postsecondary education for the first time in 1995–96. The First 

Follow-up of the BPS cohort (BPS:96/98) was conducted in 1998, approximately 3 years after 

these students first enrolled. Approximately 10,300 of the students who first began in 1995–96 

were located and interviewed in the 1998 follow-up, for an overall weighted response rate of 79.8 

percent. This response rate includes those who were nonrespondents in 1996; among the 

NPSAS:96 respondents, the response rate was 85.9 percent.27 The Second Follow-up of the BPS 

cohort (BPS:96/2001) was conducted in 2001, 6 years after students’ college entry. All 

respondents to the First Follow-up, as well as a subsample of nonrespondents in 1998, were 

eligible to be interviewed. Over 9,100 students were located and interviewed. The weighted 

response rate was 83.6 percent overall, but it was somewhat higher among respondents to both 

the 1996 and the 1998 interviews (87.4 percent).28 

Nonresponse among cohort members causes bias in survey estimates when the outcomes of 

respondents and nonrespondents are shown to be different. A bias analysis was conducted on the 

2001 survey results to determine if any variables were significantly biased due to nonresponse.29

Considerable information was known from the 1996 and 1998 surveys for nonrespondents to the 

2001 interviews, and nonresponse bias could be estimated using variables with this known 

information. Weight adjustments were applied to the BPS:96/2001 sample to reduce any bias 

found due to unit nonresponse. After the weight adjustments, some variables were found to 

reflect zero bias, and for the remaining variables, the bias did not differ significantly from zero. 

The National Education Longitudinal Study 

This survey was designed to follow a cohort of students through critical transitions into 

high school, postsecondary education, and the workforce. It started with a cohort of 1988 eighth 

graders and collected information on them again in 1990, 1992, 1994, and 2000. Almost 25,000 

students participated in the base-year survey. In 1992, a freshened sample was included to 

 

27For more information on the BPS:96/98 survey, consult U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education 

Statistics, Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study First Follow-up 1996–98, Methodology Report (NCES 2000–

157) (Washington, DC: 2000). 

28For more information on the BPS:1996/2001 survey, consult U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education 

Statistics, Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study:1996–2001 Methodology Report (NCES 2002–171) 

(Washington, DC: 2002). 

29Ibid. 
 Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

65 

achieve a representative sample of high school seniors. The 1992 weighted response rate was 

91.0 percent.30

Data collection for the Third Follow-up to NELS occurred between February and August 

1994 and obtained information from approximately 16,000 respondents.31 The NELS Third 

Follow-up had a weighted response rate of 90.9 percent. Of these, approximately 2,700 

respondents indicated that the first postsecondary institution in which they enrolled prior to being 

surveyed in 1994 was a community college. This analysis is based on that subsample, examining 

responses in 1994 as well as information obtained from these students during the NELS Fourth 

Follow-up in 2000. The Fourth Follow-up had a weighted response rate of 82.7 percent. 

Accuracy of Estimates 

The statistics in this report are estimates derived from a sample. Two broad categories of 

error occur in such estimates: sampling and nonsampling errors. Sampling errors occur because 

observations are made only on samples of students, not entire populations. Nonsampling errors 

occur not only in sample surveys but also in complete censuses of entire populations. 

Nonsampling errors can be attributed to a number of sources: inability to obtain complete 

information about all students in all institutions in the sample (some students or institutions 

refused to participate, or students participated but answered only certain items); ambiguous 

definitions; differences in interpreting questions; inability or unwillingness to give correct 

information; mistakes in recording or coding data; and other errors of collecting, processing, 

sampling, and imputing missing data. 

Item Response Rates 

Weighted item response rates were calculated for all variables used in this report. The 

weighted item response rates were calculated by dividing the weighted number of valid responses 

by the weighted population for which the item was applicable. Most of the items had very high 

response rates (at least 85 percent). For these variables, it is unlikely that reported differences are 

biased because of missing data. Four variables had weighted item response rates below 85 

percent (table B1); all were from the NELS survey. The response rates were calculated only for 

the analysis sample used in the study: students first enrolled in a community college by 1994. 

The four variables included mathematics proficiency score (F22XMPRO), reading proficiency 

 

30For all response rates to the NELS Survey, consult U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 

Base-Year to Fourth Follow-up Data File User’s Manual (NCES 2002–323) (Washington, DC: 2002). 

31Consult U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study: 

1988–1994 Methodology Report (NCES 96–174) (Washington, DC: 1996). 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

66 

Table B1.—Variables used in this report with weighted response rates less than 85 percent for the analysis

Table B1.—sample (first-time community college students enrolled by 1994)

Variable label Variable name Response rate

Mathematics proficiency score 1992 (NELS) F22XMPRO 67.7

Reading proficiency score 1992 (NELS) F22XRPRO 74.5

New Basics curriculum 1992 (NELS) F2RNWB5A 84.4

Postsecondary risk index (NELS) RISKINDX 84.4

NOTE: Weighted item response rates were calculated by dividing the total weighted number of valid responses by the weighted

total population for whom the question was applicable. Bias analyses were conducted for variables with response rates less than

85 percent.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study of

1988 (NELS:88/2000), “Fourth Follow-up, 2000.”

score (F22XRPRO), minimum basic curriculum completion (F2RMWB5A), and the 

postsecondary risk index (RISKINDX). After removing legitimate skips (those in the analysis 

sample for whom the question did not apply), a comparison was made between missing and 

nonmissing responses with respect to the final outcome variable: student attained a degree or 

transferred to a 4-year institution. The outcome variable had a response rate of 98 percent. A 

significant difference in the outcome was detected only for the postsecondary risk index variable: 

nonrespondents were less likely than respondents to have achieved the outcome (48 percent vs. 

63 percent). Thus it is possible that bias was introduced into the analysis when comparing 

students with and without postsecondary risk characteristics. However, since significant 

differences were found between the two groups, the effect of the bias may have been to 

underestimate the difference noted in the report. No differences between respondents and 

nonrespondents were detected for the other three variables with response rates less than 85 

percent. 

Data Analysis System 

The estimates presented in this report were produced using the Data Analysis System 

(DAS) for each of the three surveys analyzed. The DAS software makes it possible for users to 

specify and generate their own tables. With the DAS, users can replicate or expand upon the 

tables presented in this report. In addition to the table estimates, the DAS calculates proper 

standard errors32 and weighted sample sizes for these estimates. For example, table B2 contains 

 

32None of the survey samples were based on simple random sampling procedures and, therefore, simple random sample 

techniques for estimating sampling error cannot be applied to these data. The DAS takes into account the complexity of the 

sampling procedures and calculates standard errors appropriate for such samples. The method for computing sampling errors 

used by the DAS involves approximating the estimator by the linear terms of a Taylor series expansion. The procedure is 

typically referred to as the Taylor series method. 
 Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

67 

Table B2.—Standard errors for table 2: Percentage distribution of 1999–2000 undergraduates who were 

Table B2.—enrolled in public 2-year institutions according to their current degree program and when they 

Table B2.—enrolled, by gender and age 

Gender and age No degree Certificate Associate’s degree

 Total 1.18 1.98 2.14

Gender

 Male 1.37 2.09 2.32

 Female 1.32 2.21 2.33

Age

 18 years or younger 1.41 1.11 1.91

 19 to 23 years 1.09 1.84 2.01

 24 years or older 1.99 3.11 3.05

 Total 0.82 0.88 1.32

Gender

 Male 0.95 1.01 1.52

 Female 0.86 0.97 1.35

Age

 18 years or younger ‡ ‡ ‡

 19 to 23 years 0.81 0.78 1.2

 24 years or older 0.98 1.03 1.48

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1999–2000 National Postsecondary Student

Aid Study (NPSAS:2000).

 First enrolled before 1999–2000 (continuing students)

 First enrolled in 1999–2000

standard errors that correspond to table 2, generated by the DAS. If the number of valid cases is 

too small to produce a reliable estimate (less than 30 cases), the DAS prints the message “low-N” 

instead of the estimate. 

In addition to tables, the DAS will also produce a correlation matrix of selected variables to 

be used for linear regression models. Included in the output with the correlation matrix are the 

design effects (DEFTs) for each variable in the matrix. Since statistical procedures generally 

compute regression coefficients based on simple random sample assumptions, the standard errors 

must be adjusted with the design effects to take into account the stratified sampling method used 

in the surveys. 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

68 

For more information about the Data Analysis Systems, consult the NCES DAS web site 

(nces.ed.gov/das) or contact: 

Aurora D’Amico 

National Center for Education Statistics 

1990 K Street, NW 

Room 8115 

Washington, DC 20006 

(202) 502-7334 

Internet address: Aurora.D’Amico@ed.gov

Statistical Procedures 

Differences Between Means 

The descriptive comparisons were tested in this report using Student’s t statistic. 

Differences between estimates are tested against the probability of a Type I error,33 or 

significance level. The significance levels were determined by calculating the Student’s t values 

for the differences between each pair of means or proportions and comparing these with 

published tables of significance levels for two-tailed hypothesis testing. 

Student’s t values may be computed to test the difference between estimates with the 

following formula: 

2

2

2

1

1 2

se se

E E

t

+

− = (1) 

where E1 and E2 are the estimates to be compared and se1 and se2 are their corresponding 

standard errors. This formula is valid only for independent estimates. When estimates are not 

independent, a covariance term must be added to the formula: 

1 2

2

2

2

1

1 2

se se 2(r)se se

E E

t

+ −

− = (2) 

 

33A Type I error occurs when one concludes that a difference observed in a sample reflects a true difference in the population 

from which the sample was drawn, when no such difference is present. 
 Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

69 

where r is the correlation between the two estimates.34 This formula is used when comparing two 

percentages from a distribution that adds to 100. If the comparison is between the mean of a 

subgroup and the mean of the total group, the following formula is used: 

t =

E E

se se p se

sub tot

sub tot sub

−

+ − 22 2 2 

 (3) 

where p is the proportion of the total group contained in the subgroup.35 The estimates, standard 

errors, and correlations can all be obtained from the DAS. 

There are hazards in reporting statistical tests for each comparison. First, comparisons 

based on large t statistics may appear to merit special attention. This can be misleading since the 

magnitude of the t statistic is related not only to the observed differences in means or percentages 

but also to the number of respondents in the specific categories used for comparison. Hence, a 

small difference compared across a large number of respondents would produce a large t statistic. 

A second hazard in reporting statistical tests is the possibility that one can report a “false 

positive” or Type I error. In the case of a t statistic, this false positive would result when a 

difference measured with a particular sample showed a statistically significant difference when 

there is no difference in the underlying population. Statistical tests are designed to control this 

type of error, denoted by alpha. The alpha level of .05 selected for findings in this report 

indicates that a difference of a certain magnitude or larger would be produced no more than one 

time out of twenty when there was no actual difference in the quantities in the underlying 

population. When we test hypotheses that show t values at the .05 level or smaller, we treat this 

finding as rejecting the null hypothesis that there is no difference between the two quantities. 

However, there are other cases when exercising additional caution is warranted. When there are 

significant results not indicated by any hypothesis being tested or when we test a large number of 

comparisons in a table, Type I errors cannot be ignored. For example, when making paired 

comparisons among different levels of income, the probability of a Type I error for these 

comparisons taken as a group is larger than the probability for a single comparison. 

When either of the two situations described in the previous paragraph was encountered in 

this report, comparisons were made when p < .05/k for a particular pairwise comparison, where 

that comparison was one of k tests within a family. This guarantees both that the individual 

 

34U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, A Note from the Chief Statistician, no. 2, 1993. 

35Ibid. 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

70 

comparison would have p < .05 and that for k comparisons within a family of possible 

comparisons, the significance level for all the comparisons will sum to p < .05.36

For example, in a comparison of the percentages of males and females who expected to 

earn a certificate at their first institution, only one comparison is possible (males vs. females). In 

this family, k=1, and the comparison can be evaluated without adjusting the significance level. 

When respondents are divided into four “purpose for enrolling” categories and all possible 

comparisons are made, then k=6, and the significance level of each test must be p < .05/6, or p <

.008. The formula for calculating family size (k) is as follows: 

2

( −1) = j j k (4) 

where j is the number of categories for the variable being tested. In the case of “purpose for 

enrolling,” there are four groups (Job skills, Degree or certificate, Transfer to 4-year, Other), so 

substituting 4 for j in equation 4, 

6

2

4(4 1) = − k =

There were a few instances when apparent differences were significant when k=1, but not 

when the family size adjustment was made. For these comparisons, the significance level is 

footnoted. 

Bivariate Correlations

The strength of the relationships between pairs of variables can be described using a scale 

of magnitudes as described by Cohen (1988),37 who adopted the notion of a scale of small, 

moderate, and large sized relationships, which allows for a qualitative interpretation of the 

strength of a relationship through the concept of effect size. Cohen suggested that for a scale of 

the proportion of variance accounted for (the square of the correlation coefficient, r2

), one might 

use a value of 0.01 to signify a small effect size, 0.09 for moderate, and 0.25 for large. Some 

latitude is appropriate in determining the scale of effect sizes within the context of the analysis. 

In the analysis reported here, the outcome variable used in the multivariate analysis (see 

 

36The standard that p ≤ .05/k for each comparison is more stringent than the criterion that the significance level of the 

comparisons should sum to p ≤ .05. For tables showing the t statistic required to ensure that p ≤ .05/k for a particular family size 

and degrees of freedom, see Olive Jean Dunn, “Multiple Comparisons Among Means,” Journal of the American Statistical 

Association 56 (1961): 52–64. 

37Cohen, Jacob. (1988). Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, 2nd Edition. Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum 

Associates. 
 Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

71 

discussion of methods below) was dichotomous (i.e., whether a student attained a degree or 

transferred to a 4-year institution). While the overall results of linear probability models (such as 

the one used in this analysis) are comparable to those produced by logit and probit models when 

the probability of the outcome is sufficiently large (as it is here), the r2

’s are often substantially 

lower.38 Taking this into consideration, the magnitudes reported here were based on a scale in 

which the effect is small if r2

 is less than 0.04, moderate if r2 is at least 0.04 but less than 0.12, 

and large if r2

 is 0.12 or greater. In this analysis, effect sizes ranged from .01 to .04, signifying 

small to moderate effects. 

Multivariate Analysis 

Many of the independent variables included in the analyses in this report are related, and to 

some extent, the pattern of differences found in the descriptive analyses reflects this covariation. 

For example, when examining the degree attainment or transfer rates of students by high school 

academic preparation, it is possible that some of the observed relationship is due to differences 

among other factors related to the outcome, such as socioeconomic status. However, if nested 

tables were used to isolate all the influence of all related factors, cell sizes would become too 

small to identify the significant differences in patterns. When the sample size becomes too small 

to support controls for another level of variation, other methods must be used to take such 

variation into account. 

The method used in this report is an approach sometimes referred to as communality 

analysis. For the analysis of NELS attainment/transfer rates, multiple linear regression was used 

to adjust for the covariation among a list of control variables.39 The independent or control 

variables were selected based solely on the descriptive analysis rather than on a theoretical 

model. The descriptive regression model was not reduced. The least squares regression 

coefficients displayed in the regression tables are expressed as percentages. Significant 

coefficients represent the observed differences that remain between the analysis group (such as 

those with high proficiency) and the comparison group (those with low scores) after controlling 

for the relationships of all the selected independent variables. For example, in table 10, the least 

squares coefficient for those who scored at level 4 or 5 in mathematics proficiency is 14.5. This 

means that compared to those who scored at level 1 or below, about 15 percent more of the 

 

38See table 8.5 on p 338 for comparisons of R2

’s in G. S. Maddala, Introduction to Econometrics (New York: Macmillan 

Publishing Company, 1992). 

39For more information about least squares regression, see Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Applied Regression: An Introduction, Vol. 

22 (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 1980); William D. Berry and Stanley Feldman, Multiple Regression in Practice, 

Vol. 50 (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 1987). 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology

72 

higher proficiency group would be expected to attain a degree or transfer to a 4-year institution 

after controlling for the relationships among all the other independent variables. 

It is possible to conduct a regression analysis using the DAS, because one of the DAS 

output options is a correlation matrix, computed using pairwise missing values. In regression 

analysis, there are several common approaches to the problem of missing data. The two simplest 

approaches are pairwise deletion of missing data and listwise deletion of missing data. In 

pairwise deletion, each correlation is calculated using all of the cases for the two relevant 

variables. For example, suppose you have a regression analysis that uses variables X1, X2, and 

X3. The regression is based on the correlation matrix between X1, X2, and X3. In pairwise 

deletion, the correlation between X1 and X2 is based on the nonmissing cases for X1 and X2. 

Cases missing on either X1 or X2 would be excluded from the calculation of the correlation. In 

listwise deletion, the correlation between X1 and X2 would be based on the nonmissing values 

for X1, X2, and X3. That is, all of the cases with missing data on any of the three variables 

would be excluded from the analysis. 

The correlation matrix can be used by most statistical software packages as the input data 

for least squares regression. That is the approach used for this report, with an additional 

adjustment to incorporate the complex sample design into the statistical significance tests of the 

parameter estimates (described below). 

The regression analysis in this study included a dichotomous dependent variable that 

denoted whether a student had attained a degree or if not, had attended a 4-year institution, and a 

set of independent dummy variables. Independent variables that were significantly associated 

with the outcome in the tabular analysis were included in the regression. In addition, student 

demographic variables (gender, race/ethnicity, SES) were also included. These variables 

explained about 9.6 percent of the variance. 

Although the DAS simplifies the process of conducting a linear regression analysis, it also 

limits the range of procedures that can be used. The least squares regression procedure used in 

this analysis is sometimes sufficient for binary outcomes (such as the outcome studied here). 

However, when the proportion of the sample participating in the outcome is very low or very 

high, logit or probit procedures are preferred.40 

Most statistical software packages assume simple random sampling when computing 

standard errors of parameter estimates. Because of the complex sampling design used for the 

 

40See John H. Aldrich and Forrest D. Nelson, “Linear Probability, Logit and Probit Models” (Quantitative Applications in 

Social Sciences, Vol. 45) (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1984). Analysts who wish to estimate other types of models can apply for a 

restricted data license from NCES. 
 Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

73 

survey, this assumption is incorrect. A better approximation of their standard errors is to multiply 

each standard error by the design effect associated with the dependent variable (DEFT),41 where 

the DEFT is the ratio of the true standard error to the standard error computed under the 

assumption of simple random sampling. It is calculated by the DAS and displayed with the 

correlation matrix output. 

 

41The adjustment procedure and its limitations are described in C.J. Skinner, D. Holt, and T.M.F. Smith, eds., Analysis of 

Complex Surveys (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1989).