Sea turtles_tables&calcs_12.11.10.xls

Author: Abt Associates Inc.

Created: 12/11/10

Purpose: Includes data and calculations related to potential sea turtle benefits

Worksheet Description

table 1 Table summarizing Whitehead (1993) results

table 2 Table summarizing sea turtle mortality data

table 3 Table summarizing facility-specific information

table 4 Table summarizing annualized benefits by region

master calcs Calculations based on Whitehead (1993)

table 3 values Table summarizing facility-specific information

compliance shedule Compliance schedule calculations and results

AIF data Actual intake flow data used for calculations

HH_data Household data used to estimate total benefits

Note: The original version of this file contains, or is linked to a file that contains,

confidential business information (CBI), or information that could be used to reveal

CBI. As a result, the values for any variables determined by EPA to be CBI, or that

could be used to reveal CBI, have been concealed.

File Info 1 of 14
Variable Name Description

Value Used in EPA's

Applications

OP Option Price - The amount a household would be willing to pay under

conditions of supply and demand uncertainty Estimated by the model

p2

Demand Probability - for wildlife users, demand uncertainty occurs

when it is indeterminate whether recreational use of the wildlife

resource will be pursued because of uncertain travel costs, income,

and tastes. For nonusers, demand uncertainty depends on uncertain

tastes. 0.51

q2

a Supply Probability without the Management Program - probability

that the resource will continue to exist in 25 years without

implementation of the management program. 0.43

r2

Supply Probability with the Management Program - probability that

the resource will continue to exist in 25 years with implementation of

the management program. 0.44

(r2-q2)

b Marginal increase in supply probability resulting from the

management program 0.01

a

The model results are linear for marginal improvements in supply probability.

b

EPA notes that a marginal change in supply probability of 0.01 is substantially less than changes used by Whitehead (1993) for model

estimation. Whitehead (1993) estimated an annual household willingness to payvalue of $10.98 (1991$) for a mean increase in supply

probability of 0.47 in 25 years.

table 1 2 of 14
316(b) Region Facility Name State Species Dates Non-lethal Lethal Source

Loggerhead 1999 40 8

Kemp's Ridley 1999 7 3

Green 1999 8 2

Salem NJ Loggerhead,

Kemp's Ridley,

Green (aggregated)

1999 23 2 Eggers 2001

Loggerhead 1980-1988 2.25 1.00

Kemp's Ridley 1980-1988 0.75 0.75

Brunswick NC Loggerhead,

Kemp's Ridley,

Green (aggregated)

2000 50 11 NMFS 2001

St. Lucie FL Loggerhead 1976-2005 225.50 6.00 NMFS (in prep)

Leatherback 1976-1998

Hawksbill 1976-1998

Kemp's Ridley 1976-1998

St. Lucie FL Green 1976-1998 Ernest et al 1988

Gulf of Mexico Crystal River FL Kemp's Ridley,

Loggerhead

1998 40 5 TEWG 2000

Encina, San Onofre CA Olive Ridley NMFS 1998a

South Bay,

Encina,

San Onofre

CA Green NMFS 1998b

All U.S. Waters - Loggerhead Estimate 5-50 Plotkin 1995

Mid-Atlantic

South Atlantic

California

Salem

St. Lucie

NMFS 2001

0.95

0.90

NJ

Eggers 1989NJ

Bresette et al 1998FL

Takes/yr

Qualitative Reports Only

Qualitative Reports Only

Oyster Creek,

Salem,

Hope Creek (aggregated)

109.38

1.62

table 2 3 of 14
316(b) Region Facility Name State Waterbody CWS Technology AIF (MGD)

Mid-Atlantic

South Atlantic

Gulf of Mexico

California

table 3 4 of 14
3% Discount Rate 7 % Discount Rate

North Atlantic CT, MA, ME, NH,

RI

5.40 $1.67 $1.62

Mid-Atlantic DE, MD, NJ, NY,

PA, VA

20.97 $6.51 $6.31

South Atlantic FL, GA, NC, SC 11.85 $3.67 $3.56

Gulf of Mexicoa FL, LA, MS, TX 15.13 $4.69 $4.40

Total - 53.35 $16.55 $16.04

Annualized Benefits

(2009$, millions)

a

Florida households are included in both the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions. To prevent double-counting, Florida

households were apportioned between these regions based on relative AIF.

Note: Because of uncertainty in estimates of increased survival probability, and because benefits were not calculated for options,

these values are not included in national totals.

Number of

Households

(millions)Region States Included

table 4 5 of 14
equations based on Whitehead (1993) (pp. 126-128)

variable definition study values Transfer values notes

OP option price (2008$) 17.3484 0.353440552

•annual household payment, no fixed

duration

•1991$ - CPI adjustment of 1.58

•replicated values appear to be off slightly

due to rounding

α parameter on p2

(r2- q2) 1.272 1.272

p2(r2- q2)

supply probability change weighted by the demand

probability 0.25 0.0051

•values appear to be off slightly from

Whitehead (1993) results due to rounding

p2 demand probability 0.51 0.51

•For wildlife users, demand uncertainty

occurs when it is indeterminate whether

recreational use of the wildlife resource

will pursused because of uncertain travel

costs, income, and tastes.

•For nonusers, demand uncertainty

depends on uncertain tastes.

q2 supply probability without the management program 0.43 0.43

•Supply uncertainty occurs when it is

indeterminate whether the wildlife

resource will continue to exist so that it

can be enjoyed by recreational users and

nonusers

marginal change in supply probability 0.47 0.0100000000

r2 supply probability with the management program 0.9 0.4400000000

β parameter on the requested payment 0.029 0.029

master calcs 6 of 14
Beneifts Region/Facility Name Plant Code State Region Waterbody Type Waterbody Name Technology (CWS Type) CCRS Type? AIF (MGD)

Mid-Atlantic

South Atlantic

Gulf of Mexico

California

table 3 values 7 of 14
region state AIF

calif CA 11161.01

calif total

greatlakes IL 716.9

greatlakes IN 2214.865

greatlakes MI 6753.446

greatlakes MN 242.6

greatlakes NY 3718.191

greatlakes OH 2275.163

greatlakes PA 37.6

greatlakes WI 3087.876

greatlakes total

inland AL 8204.449

inland AR 2132.447

inland AZ 290.53

inland CA 1.2

inland CO 300.6403

inland CT 194.0467

inland DC 1.347148

inland DE 33

inland FL 755.5034

inland GA 3289.231

inland IA 2408.706

inland IL 10156

inland IN 6377.277

inland KS 2169.67

inland KY 3520.087

inland LA 6988.356

inland MA 157.7859

inland MD 471.7657

inland ME 110.5412

inland MI 2247.565

inland MN 2166.648

inland MO 6272.162

inland MS 913.0014

inland MT 176.7987

inland NC 8688.919

inland ND 903.5987

inland NE 3015.303

inland NH 233.0278

inland NJ 114.9921

inland NM 46.56333

inland NV 69.12

inland NY 2578.704

inland OH 6840.283

inland OK 1890.128

inland OR 60.99963

inland PA 6631.607

inland SC 6067.301

inland SD 8.845041

inland TN 9480.705

inland TX 24892.29

AIF data 8 of 14
region state AIF

inland UT 41.48801

inland VA 1840.587

inland VT 323.4667

inland WA 246.2448

inland WI 1712.151

inland WV 3894.248

inland WY 223.1107

inland total

midatlantic DE 1430.625

midatlantic MD 6766.152

midatlantic NJ 6251.668

midatlantic NY 8993.723

midatlantic PA 48.412

midatlantic VA 4674.506

midatlantic total

gulfmexico FL 7054.289

gulfmexico LA 984.9659

gulfmexico MS 302.57

gulfmexico TX 4904.056

gulfmexico total

southatlantic FL 5243.84

southatlantic GA 198.4691

southatlantic NC 1426.89

southatlantic SC 592.8525

southatlantic total

northatlantic CT 2099.031

northatlantic MA 3504.762

northatlantic ME 248.8683

northatlantic NH 909.3883

northatlantic RI 275.3553

northatlantic total

AIF data 9 of 14
FL AIF %

gulfofmexico 7054.289 57%

southatlantic 5243.84 43%

total 12298.13

AIF data 10 of 14
year baseline period df (3%) df (7%)

adjusted

annual

benefits

(NA)

adjusted

annual

benefits

(MA)

adjusted

annual benefits

(SA)

adjusted

annual benefits

(GOM)

2012 0% 0 1.00 1.00 $0 $0 $0 $0

2013 20.0% 1 0.97 0.93 $0 $1 $1 $1

2014 40.0% 2 0.94 0.87 $1 $3 $2 $2

2015 60.0% 3 0.92 0.82 $1 $4 $2 $3

2016 80.0% 4 0.89 0.76 $2 $6 $3 $4

2017 100.0% 5 0.86 0.71 $2 $7 $4 $5

2018 100.0% 6 0.84 0.67 $2 $7 $4 $5

2019 100.0% 7 0.81 0.62 $2 $7 $4 $5

2020 100.0% 8 0.79 0.58 $2 $7 $4 $5

2021 100.0% 9 0.77 0.54 $2 $7 $4 $5

2022 100.0% 10 0.74 0.51 $2 $7 $4 $5

2023 100.0% 11 0.72 0.48 $2 $7 $4 $5

2024 100.0% 12 0.70 0.44 $2 $7 $4 $5

2025 100.0% 13 0.68 0.41 $2 $7 $4 $5

2026 100.0% 14 0.66 0.39 $2 $7 $4 $5

2027 100.0% 15 0.64 0.36 $2 $7 $4 $5

2028 100.0% 16 0.62 0.34 $2 $7 $4 $5

2029 100.0% 17 0.61 0.32 $2 $7 $4 $5

2030 100.0% 18 0.59 0.30 $2 $7 $4 $5

2031 100.0% 19 0.57 0.28 $2 $7 $4 $5

2032 100.0% 20 0.55 0.26 $2 $7 $4 $5

2033 100.0% 21 0.54 0.24 $2 $7 $4 $5

2034 100.0% 22 0.52 0.23 $2 $7 $4 $5

2035 100.0% 23 0.51 0.21 $2 $7 $4 $5

2036 100.0% 24 0.49 0.20 $2 $7 $4 $5

2037 100.0% 25 0.48 0.18 $2 $7 $4 $5

2038 100.0% 26 0.46 0.17 $2 $7 $4 $5

2039 100.0% 27 0.45 0.16 $2 $7 $4 $5

2040 100.0% 28 0.44 0.15 $2 $7 $4 $5

2041 100.0% 29 0.42 0.14 $2 $7 $4 $5

2042 100.0% 30 0.41 0.13 $2 $7 $4 $5

2043 100.0% 31 0.40 0.12 $2 $7 $4 $5

2044 100.0% 32 0.39 0.11 $2 $7 $4 $5

2045 100.0% 33 0.38 0.11 $2 $7 $4 $5

2046 100.0% 34 0.37 0.10 $2 $7 $4 $5

2047 100.0% 35 0.36 0.09 $2 $7 $4 $5

2048 100.0% 36 0.35 0.09 $2 $7 $4 $5

2049 100.0% 37 0.33 0.08 $2 $7 $4 $5

2050 100.0% 38 0.33 0.08 $2 $7 $4 $5

2051 100.0% 39 0.32 0.07 $2 $7 $4 $5

2052 100.0% 40 0.31 0.07 $2 $7 $4 $5

2053 100.0% 41 0.30 0.06 $2 $7 $4 $5

2054 100.0% 42 0.29 0.06 $2 $7 $4 $5

2055 100.0% 43 0.28 0.05 $2 $7 $4 $5

2056 100.0% 44 0.27 0.05 $2 $7 $4 $5

2057 83.0% 45 0.26 0.05 $2 $6 $3 $4

2058 67.0% 46 0.26 0.04 $1 $5 $3 $4

2059 50.0% 47 0.25 0.04 $1 $4 $2 $3

compliance schedule 11 of 14
year baseline period df (3%) df (7%)

adjusted

annual

benefits

(NA)

adjusted

annual

benefits

(MA)

adjusted

annual benefits

(SA)

adjusted

annual benefits

(GOM)

2060 33.0% 48 0.24 0.04 $1 $2 $1 $2

2061 17.0% 49 0.23 0.04 $0 $1 $1 $1

2062 0.0% 50 0.23 0.03 $0 $0 $0 $0

2063 0.0% 51 0.22 0.03 $0 $0 $0 $0

2064 0.0% 52 0.22 0.03 $0 $0 $0 $0

2065 0.0% 53 0.21 0.03 $0 $0 $0 $0

compliance schedule 12 of 14
NPV (3%) annualized (3%; 50)NPV (7%) annualized (7%; 50)

NA $43 $2 $22 $2

MA $168 $7 $87 $6

SA $95 $4 $49 $4

GOM $121 $5 $63 $5

total $427 $16.6 $222 $16.1

$18.7

compliance schedule 13 of 14
region state state numHH included in loggerhead analysis

calif CA AL 1,836,096 midatlantic DE 329,246

calif total AR 1,132,706 midatlantic MD 2,138,174

greatlakes IL AZ 2,266,797 midatlantic NJ 3,186,057

greatlakes IN CA 12,371,970 midatlantic NY 7,303,783

greatlakes MI CO 1,891,368 midatlantic PA 5,021,383

greatlakes MN CT 1,365,529 midatlantic VA 2,996,176

greatlakes NY DC 268,559 midatlantic total 20,974,820

greatlakes OH DE 329,246 gulfmexico FL 7,252,011

greatlakes PA FL 7,252,011 gulfmexico LA 1,595,221

greatlakes WI GA 3,472,892 gulfmexico MS 1,106,531

greatlakes total IA 1,248,977 gulfmexico TX 8,271,247

inland AL ID 560,873 gulfmexico total 18,225,011

inland AR IL 4,821,525 southatlantic FL 7,252,011

inland AZ IN 2,501,050 southatlantic GA 3,472,892

inland CA KS 1,120,251 southatlantic NC 3,562,025

inland CO KY 1,695,340 southatlantic SC 1,718,297

inland CT LA 1,595,221 southatlantic total 16,005,225

inland DC MA 2,533,224 northatlantic CT 1,365,529

inland DE MD 2,138,174 northatlantic MA 2,533,224

inland FL ME 561,927 northatlantic ME 561,927

inland GA MI 3,977,292 northatlantic NH 518,506

inland IA MN 2,095,360 northatlantic RI 419,621

inland IL MO 2,373,024 northatlantic total 5,398,807

inland IN MS 1,106,531 total all regions 60,603,863

inland KS MT 383,318 21,211,352

inland KY NC 3,562,025

inland LA ND 285,857

inland MA NE 719,904

inland MD NH 518,506

inland ME NJ 3,186,057

inland MI NM 735,720

inland MN NV 947,691

inland MO NY 7,303,783

inland MS OH 4,622,384

inland MT OK 1,431,014

inland NC OR 1,476,434

inland ND PA 5,021,383

inland NE RI 419,621

inland NH SC 1,718,297

inland NJ SD 327,165

inland NM TN 2,449,562

inland NV TX 8,271,247

inland NY UT 837,511

inland OH VA 2,996,176

inland OK VT 260,831

inland OR WA 2,519,727

inland PA WI 2,302,752

inland SC WV 756,778

inland SD WY 211,883

inland TN

inland TX

inland UT

inland VA

inland VT

inland WA

inland WI

inland WV

inland WY

inland total

HH_data 14 of 14