BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

PETITION FOR RULEMAKING PURSUANT TO SECTION 21 OF THE TOXIC SUBSTANCES CONTROL ACT, 15 U.S.C. § 2620, CONCERNING

THE REGULATION OF CARBON DIOXIDE

Credit: NOAA

CENTER FOR BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY

DONN J. VIVIANI, PhD

PETITIONERS

June 30, 2015i NOTICE OF PETITION

Gina McCarthy
Administrator U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20460 Email: McCarthy.Gina@epa.gov

PETITIONERS

Center for Biological Diversity 1212 Broadway #800 Oakland, CA 94612 (510) 844-7100 Donn J. Viviani, PhD
4907 Yorktown Blvd Arlington, VA 22207 oceanpetition@gmail.com

The Center for Biological Divers ity (“Center”) is a non-profit, public interest environmental organization dedicated to the protection of nativ e species and their hab itats through science, policy and environmental law. The Center has over 800,000 members and online activists throughout the United States and around the wo rld. The Center’s Oceans Program and its supporters are specifically concer ned with the conservation of mari ne species, the preservation of ocean ecosystems and the effective implementation of U.S. environmental laws, including the
Toxic Substances Control Act. The Center submits this petition on its own behalf and on behalf
of its members and staff with an interest in protecting the marine environment.

Donn J. Viviani, PhD, is a retired U.S. Envir onmental Protection Agency scientist. He was the Director of the Climate Policy Assessment Di vision in the Office of Policy, Economics and
Innovation. He also served as Chairman of th e Great Lakes Water Board's Toxic Substances Committee and as a member of the Science Coordinating Committee for the International Joint
Commission for the Great Lakes. Dr . Viviani enjoys the ocean and s ubmits this petition, in part, so his grandchildren will be able to enjoy it as well. Dr. Viviani al so submits a supplement to the petition, under his signature only, and respec tively requests that it be considered.

ACTION REQUESTED

Pursuant to section 21 of the Toxic Substa nces Control Act (“TSCA” or the “Act”), 15 U.S.C. § 2620, and section 553(e) of the Admini strative Procedure Act (“APA”), 5 U.S.C. § 553(e), the Center for Biological Diversity and Donn J. Viviani (collectively, “Petitioners”) hereby petition the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) to promulgate regulations protecti ng public health and the envir onment from the serious harms associated with anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, including ocean acidification. Specifically, Petitioners request that EPA adopt a rule under section 6 of the Act, 15 U.S.C. § 2605, requiring manufacturers and processo rs to mitigate these emissions.

This petition sets in motion a specific pro cess, placing definite response requirements on EPA. Specifically, TSCA sti pulates that the agency “ shall either grant or deny the petition” within 90 days following its receipt, “promptly commenc[ing] an appropriate [rulemaking]ii proceeding” if such action is warranted. 15 U.S.C. § 2620(b)(3) (emphasis added). Conversely, should EPA deny this petition, the agency must publish the reasons for denial in the Federal Register. 15 U.S.C. § 2620(b)(3); see also 5 U.S.C. § 555(e) (“Prompt notice shall be given of the denial in whole or in part of a written application, petition, or other request of an interested person made in connection with any agency proceed ing.”). Pursuant to 15 U.S.C. § 2620(b)(4), petitioners may file suit in federal district court to challenge an adverse or untimely
determination. See also 5 U.S.C. §§ 702, 706.

As described in this petition, anthropoge nic emissions of carbon dioxide satisfy the standard for regulation set forth at 15 U.S.C. § 2605. For example, EPA has acknowledged that these emissions have the potential to alter o cean chemistry, thus imperiling important marine ecosystems and presenting an unreas onable risk of injury to the environment. Accordingly, the agency must promptly commence the proposed ru lemaking to reduce and mitigate these harms.
In the event that EPA conclude s that there are insufficient da ta and experience upon which to determine or predict the effects of carbon dioxide emissions, we alternatively request that the agency adopt a rule under secti on 4 of the Act, 15 U.S.C. § 2603, requiring manufacturers and processors responsible for the generation of car bon dioxide to undertake testing to determine toxicity, persistence, and other characteristics which affect hea lth and the environment and are necessary to determine if there is an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment.

Dated this 30 th day of June 2015.

/s/ Miyoko Sakashita Miyoko Sakashita, Oceans Director Center for Biological Diversity 1212 Broadway #800 Oakland, CA 94612 (510) 844-7100 miyoko@biologicaldiversity.org /s/ Donn Viviani Donn J. Viviani, PhD
4907 Yorktown Blvd Arlington, VA 22207 oceanpetition@gmail.comiii TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. ........ 1

I. The Toxic Substances Control Act ..................................................................................... 2

II. EPA Must Issue a Rule to Regulate or Require Tests for CO 2 Causing Ocean
Acidification ................................................................................................................. .............. 3

A. TSCA Authorizes EPA to Act on CO 2 ........................................................................... 3

1. CO 2 Is a Chemical Substance ..................................................................................... 4

2. CO 2 Is in Commerce ................................................................................................... 4

B. EPA Should Initiate Rulemaking to Control CO 2 under TSCA ..................................... 6

1. CO 2 Pollution Presents an Unreasonable Ri sk of Injury to the Environment............. 7

a. CO 2 Causes Irreversible Ocean Acidification ....................................................... 7

i. What Is Ocean Acidification ............................................................................. 8

ii. Observed and Predicte d Acidification ............................................................... 9

iii. CO 2 Kills and Injures Marine Life .................................................................. 12

b. High-CO 2 Waters Injure the Growth, Surv ival, Fitness, and Reproduction of
Marine Animals ............................................................................................................ 13

i. Molluscs, Echinoderms, and Crustaceans ....................................................... 13

ii. Corals ............................................................................................................... 17

iii. Plankton ........................................................................................................... 23

iv. Cephlopods and Fish ....................................................................................... 24

c. Other Environmental Impacts of Ocean Acidification ........................................ 25

i. Increased Toxicity of Harmful Algal Blooms and Sediments ......................... 25

ii. Noise Pollution Increases in Low pH Waters .................................................. 26

d. Ocean Acidification’s Ecosystem Impacts .......................................................... 26

2. Risk Reduction Costs and Benefits ........................................................................... 27

a. Socioeconomic Costs of Ocean Acidification ..................................................... 27

b. Risk Reduction Methods ..................................................................................... 29

c. Social Costs of Carbon ........................................................................................ 31

C. Alternatively, EPA Must Require Tes ting to Develop Adequate Data ........................ 35

1. CO 2 May Present an Unreasonable Risk .................................................................. 35

2. Substantial Quantities of CO 2 Are Released into the Environment .......................... 35

3. Recommendations for Testing .................................................................................. 36

D. Inadequacy of Existing CO 2 Reduction Strategies ....................................................... 37

1. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Ar e Increasing Subs tantially ............................ 37iv 2. U.S. Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Insufficient ................... 38

3. International Measures to Reduce Gree nhouse Gas Emissions Are Inadequate ...... 39

CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................... ......... 40

BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................. ....... 411 INTRODUCTION

Ocean acidification — caused by carbon dioxide (“CO 2 ”) emissions — is a se vere threat to the marine environment and the health of people who depend on oceans and coasts. Because of the
unreasonable risk that CO 2 poses to the environment and human health, this petition seeks rulemaking under the Toxic Substances C ontrol Act (“TSCA”) to regulate CO 2 from cradle to

grave.

About 28% of CO 2 emissions from power generation, cement production, industry, and other sources are absorbed by the ocean. These CO 2 emissions cause seawater to become more acidic and corrosive to sea life. Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions have increased the acidity of the oceans on average by 30%, and by the end of the century sc ientists predict that the oceans will become
150-170% more acidic.

While the most dangerous consequences of CO 2 on our oceans are still to come, harmful impacts on the environment are already well-documented.

 Billions of oyster larvae have perished in the Pacific Northwest due to ocean acidification;

 53% of pteropods, plankton that form the base of the marine food web, along the West Coast have severely dissolved shells because of the corrosive nearshore conditions; and

 Calcification rates at coral reef locations in the western tropical Pa cific and the Caribbean may have already declined by 15%.

These are just some of the harmful environmen tal impacts of ocean acidification caused by CO 2 emissions. Anthropogenic CO 2 emissions are contri buting to increasingly corrosive conditions for marine animals, and will continue to grow more severe absent actions to promptly reduce

CO 2 pollution in the atmosphere.

TSCA was enacted in part to address the threat of ozone de pletion caused by chlorofuorocarbon (CFC) emissions. And here again TSCA regulati on is needed where airborne emissions are causing damage to our environment — this time th reatening ocean ecosystems, fish and shellfish industries, and communities that de pend on oceans and coral reefs.

Petitioners specifically request that EPA take the following actions:

1. Make a determination under TSCA § 6 that CO 2 presents an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment; and

2. Initiate rulemaking to control CO 2 ; or 3. If EPA finds data inadequate to make a §6 determination then EPA must initiate rulemaking for test ing under TSCA § 4.

This petition presents scientific evidence that establishes that CO 2 presents an unreasonable risk of injury to the environment, and therefor e EPA must take action under TSCA section 6.2 I. The Toxic Substances Control Act

Congress enacted TSCA, 15 U.S.C. §§ 2601 et seq. , “to assure that ... innovation and commerce in ... chemical substances and mixtures do not presen t an unreasonable risk of injury to health or
the environment.” 1 Accordingly, lawmakers required those responsible for the manufacture and processing of these compounds to develop “adeq uate data” describing their effects, and authorized EPA to devise and implement reasonabl e controls to prevent the risk of injury to
health or the environment. 2

Section 6 of TSCA mandates that EPA “shall” regulate a ch emical substance for which

there is a reasonable basis to conclude th at the manufacture, pr ocessing, distribution in commerce, use, or disposal of a chem ical substance or mixture, or that any combination of such activities, presents or wi ll present an unreasonable risk of injury
to health or the environment. 3

Permissible regulations include requirements prohibiting or “limiting the amount of such substance ... which may be manufactured, pr ocessed, or distributed in commerce.” 4 EPA can also require processors “to give public notice of such risk [of in jury], and . . . to replace or repurchase such substance . . . to adequate ly protect health or the environment.” 5 In assessing risk, EPA must consider:

(A) the effects of such substance or mixture on health and the magnitude of the exposure of human beings to such substance or mixture, (B) the effects of such substance or mixture on the environment and the magnitude of the exposure of the environment to such substance or mixture, (C) the benefits of such substance or mixture for various uses and the availability of substitutes for such uses, and (D) the reasonably ascertainable economic conse quences of the rule, after consideration of the effect on the national economy, sma ll business, technol ogical innovation, the environment, and public health. 6

Thus, if there is a reasonable ba sis to conclude that a proposed ru le is necessary to protect the environment, then EPA must grant a petition fo r rulemaking and initiate rulemaking procedures. Factual certainty is not required; instead, the agency may “base its action on scientific theories, consideration of projections from available da ta, modeling using reason able assumptions, and extrapolations from limited data.” 7 Even if EPA determines that another federal law “could

1 15 U.S.C. § 2601(b) (3) (2012). Within the mean ing of TSCA, the term “chemical substance” includes “any organic or inorganic substance of a particular molecular identity.” Id. § 2602(2).

2 Id. § 2601(b)(1) & (2).

3 Id. § 2605(a) (emphasis added).

4 Id. § 2605(a)(1)(B).

5 Id. § 2605(b)(2)(B).

6 Id. § 2605(c)(1). E.

7 Lead Fishing Sinkers; Response to Citizens’ Petition and Proposed Ban, 59 Fed. Reg. 11,122, 11,138 (Mar. 9, 1994) ( citing H.R. Rep. No. 1341, 9th Cong., 2d Sess. 32 (1976)).3 [sufficiently] eliminate[] or reduce[]” the risk as sociated with a particul ar chemical substance, the agency may elect to regulate the substance under TSCA, provided that a “comparison of the estimated costs” and “relative efficiency” reveal s that such action promot es the public interest. 8

In the event that EPA lacks adequate data and experience upon which to determine the health and environmental risks associated with a part icular chemical substance, the agency “ shall by rule require that testing be conducted on such substance.” 9 Specifically, Section 4 of the Act authorizes EPA to compel manufacturers and processo rs to evaluate the safety of substances that “may present an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment” or that “[are] or will be produced in substantial quantities” and, thus , “may reasonably be anticipated to enter the environment in substantial quantities” or result in “significant or substantial human exposure.” 10
TSCA provides for testing to determine toxicit y, persistence, and othe r characteristics which
affect health and the environment and are necessar y to determine if there is an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment.

Over forty years ago, the Council on Environmental Quality warned of the “high priority need” for a new legal authority capable of ensuring the safe use of toxic chemicals. 11 Despite TSCA’s powerful potential, however, EPA has accomplished very little under the Act. This petition presents substantial scientif ic evidence demonstrating that anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 pose an unreasonable risk to human and environmenta l health. Indeed, studie s show that significant and potentially irreversible harm has alrea dy occurred. As the Council recognized decades ago, “[w]e should no longer be limited to repairing [thi s] damage after it ha s been done; nor should
we continue to allow the entire population or the entire environment to be used as a laboratory.” Instead, EPA must take prompt action to reduc e and mitigate the anthropogenic production of

CO 2

.

II. EPA Must Issue a Rule to Regulate or Require Tests for CO 2 Causing Ocean
Acidification

CO 2 presents an unreasonable risk of injury to the environment because its exposure to the ocean changes seawater chemistry with harmful imp acts on marine life and ecosystems. Substantial evidence supports this conclusion and is discussed in this peti tion. Accordingly, this petition seeks a rulemaking to regulate CO 2 under TSCA.

This petition requires EPA to make a determina tion under TSCA section 6 if the injury to the
environment and health from CO 2 is unreasonable. Alternately, if the Agency demonstrates that the existing science is insufficient to make a determination under TSCA section 6, EPA must
initiate test rules under TSCA section 4 to deve lop the missing information needed to determine if the TSCA section 6 trigger is me t and how best to mitigate the harm.

A. TSCA Authorizes EPA to Act on CO 2

To enable the achievement of TSCA’s ambiti ous objectives, Congress broadly defined EPA’s jurisdiction under the Act. As described above , TSCA explicitly di rects EPA to initiate

8 Id.

9 Id. § 2603 (emphasis added).

10 Id.

11 Council on Envtl. Quality, Toxic Substances at v (April 1971).4 rulemaking upon finding that “the ma nufacture, processing, distri bution in commerce, use, or disposal of a chemical substance” thr eatens public health or the environment. 12 TSCA then authorizes the regulation of “chemical substa nces” that are “in commerce,” a test met by CO 2

. Indeed, CO 2 is already on the TSCA inventory as a “chemical in commerce.” 13 CO 2 necessarily qualifies as a “chemical substance,” a category th at includes “any organic or inorganic substance of a particular molecular identity.” 14 Moreover, the anthropogenic emissions at issue are in commerce; federal courts have prev iously concluded that air emissions 15 and “incidental byproducts of industrial chemical processes” are within the scope of EPA’s authority under the

Act. 16 Existing scientific evidence demonstrates that the anthropoge nic production of CO 2 has already damaged marine ecosystems and e ndangered vulnerable portions of the human population. For the reasons described below, EP A must promptly reduce and mitigate these
harms.

1. CO 2 Is a Chemical Substance

First, carbon dioxide is a “chem ical substance” falling within the scope of the Act. The Act defines “chemical substance” as “any organic or inorganic substance of a particular molecular identity, including any combination of such substances occurring in whole or in part as a result of a chemical reaction or occurring in nature and (ii) any element or uncombined radical.” 17 . CO 2 meets this definition. CO 2 is a chemical substance that occurs both in nature and as a result of a
chemical reaction. It consists of a ca rbon atom bonded to two oxygen atoms:

O=C=O

It is identified by molecular formula CO 2 and by CAS number 124-38-9.

2. CO 2 Is in Commerce

Second, CO 2 is in commerce, and it is already on th e TSCA inventory (CAS 124-38-9) with “chemical in commerce” as the stated reason for regulation. 18 Under TSCA’s statutory text, “commerce” is defined as “trade, traffic, transp ortation, or other commerce . . . between a place in a State and any place outside of such state, or . . . which affects trade, traffic, transportation,

or commerce.” 19 CO 2 is primarily produced as a byproduct from the combustion of fossil fuels; according to the EPA, CO 2 emissions account for 77% of gr eenhouse gas emissions worldwide. 20

12 Id. §§ 2605(a), 2603(a)(1)(A)(i), 2506(a). Although TSCA does not define “disposal,” other federal environmental laws explain that this term encompasses “the discharge, de posit, injection, dumping, spilling, leaking, or placing of any solid waste or hazardous waste into or on any land or water so that such solid waste or hazardous waste or any constituent thereof may enter the environment or be emitted into the air or discharged into any waters, including ground waters.” 42 U.S.C. §§ 6903(3), 9601(29).

13 EPA, Substance Registry at http://1.usa.gov/1IBS1w6 (last accessed June 28, 2015).

14 15 U.S.C. § 2602(2). This definition excludes specific compounds alread y subject to federal control, such as pesticides, tobacco products, nuclear ma terials and food, drugs and cosmetics. Id. § 2602(2)(B).

15 Citizens for a Better Env’t v. Thomas , 704 F. Supp. 149, 152 (E.D. Ill. 1989).

16 Envtl. Def. Fund v. Envtl. Prot. Agency , 636 F.2d 1267, 1271 (D.C. Cir. 1980).

17 15 U.S.C. § 2602(2)(A).

18 EPA, Substance Registry at http://1.usa.gov/1IBS1w6

. 19 15 U.S.C. § 2602(3).

20 EPA, Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html (last updated June 21, 2013; last accessed June 28, 2015).5 The most voluminous sources of greenhous e gas emissions are energy suppliers, 21 industry, 22
land use and forestry, 23 agriculture, 24 transportation, 25 commercial and residential buildings, 26

and waste and wastewater. 27 All of these emitters produce CO 2 as a byproduct of their ordinary

processes.

TSCA’s statutory and regulatory te xt support the proposition that CO 2 emitted as a byproduct of industrial processes can be re gulated under TSCA because CO 2 in this context is manufactured, meaning “produce[d] . . . with the purpose of obtaining an imme diate or eventual commercial advantage.” 28 All of the industries listed above which emit CO 2 are performed to obtain an
immediate or eventual commercial advantage, as all of these industries are commercial and part of a competitive market. Therefor e, incidental production of CO 2 is manufactured or produced “for a commercial purpose,” and is found “i n commerce” pursuant to TSCA regulations.

Accordingly, CO 2 emissions fit the regulatory definition of a chemical substance produced for a commercial purpose. This is bolstered by the broad definition of “commerce” in the TSCA statute; at the very least, CO 2 emissions “affect” trade, traffi c, transportation, and commerce.

TSCA’s purpose and regulatory text support the re gulation of chemical substances that are an incidental byproduct, and indeed EPA has re gulated chemical byproducts under TSCA before. For example, PCBs are regulated under TSCA even when they are only incidentally produced as a byproduct of industrial processes. 29 EPA regulates PCB “byproducts” for which there are no separate commercial intents, and TSCA regul ates inadvertently vented PCB emissions. 30
Moreover, EPA’s authority under TSCA broadly de fines what it regulates under “disposal” of
PCBs to include intentiona l and accidental disposal. 31 EPA has also previously prohibited wastes from chemical manufacturing under TSCA. 32

21 Which emit greenhouse gases through “[t]he burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat.” Id.

22 Which emit greenhouse gases through “fossil fuels burned on-site at facilities for energy” and “chemical, metallurgical, and mineral transformation processes not associated with energy consumption.” Id.

23 Which emit “carbon dioxide . . . from deforestation, land clearing for agricu lture, and fires or decay of peat soils.”

Id.

24 “Greenhouse emissions from agriculture mostly come from the management of agricultural soils, livestock, rice production, and biomass burning.” Id.

25 Which emit greenhouse gases through “fossil fuels burn ed for road, rail, air, and marine transportation.” Id.

26 Which emit greenhouse gases from “on-site energy generation and burning fuels or heat in buildings or cooking in
homes.” Id.

27 Which emit carbon dioxide through the “incineration of some waste products that were made with fossil fuels, such as plastics and synthetic textiles.” Id.

28 40 C.F.R. § 710.3; 40 C.F.R. § 704.3 (“Manufacture for commercial purposes also applies to substances that are produced coincidentally during the manufacture, processing, use, or disposal of another substance or mixture, including both byproducts that are separated from that othe r substance or mixture and impurities that remain in that substance or mixture. Such byproducts and impurities may, or may not, in themselves have commercial value. They are nonetheless produced for the purpose of obtaining a commercial advantage since they are part of the manufacture of a chemical produc t for a commercial purpose.”).

29 44 Fed. Reg. 31525 (May 31, 1979); 40 C.F.R. § 761.

30 See, e.g., 40 C.F.R. Part 761.

31 40 C.F.R. § 761.3.

32 45 Fed. Reg. 592 (March 11, 1980);40 C.F.R. § 775 (19 80) (prohibiting disposal of 2,3,7,8-tetracholorodibenzo-pdioxin (TCDD) a manufacturing waste).6 Further, CO 2 emissions are in commerce as they are tr aded, bought, and sold as carbon offsets.

CO 2 is also produced for commerical purposes including for uses in fertilizer, beverage carbonation, dry ice, refrigerati on, pressurization, fire extingu ishment, and packaging.

B. EPA Should Initiate Rulemaking to Control CO 2 under TSCA

Petitioners request that EPA make finding that CO 2 presents or will present an unreasonable risk of injury to the environment or health. TSCA requires that EP A “shall” initiate rulemaking upon finding “a reasonable basis to conclude that the manufacture, processing, distribution in commerce, use or disposal of a chemical substa nce of mixture ... presents or will present an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment.” 33

The information and supporting documents pr ovided in this petition indicate that CO 2 is already causing injury to the environment due to ocean acidification. The scientific evidence further supports that the injury to the environmen t and health will grow more severe as CO 2 pollution continues. EPA cannot deny that CO 2 is harming the environment. Indeed, EPA acknowledges that ocean acidification poses risk:

Ocean acidification, like Climate change is primarily caused by increasing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations in the atmosphere. As a result of absorbing large quantities of human made CO 2 emissions the ocean chemistry is changing, which is likely to negatively aff ect important marine ecosystems and species including coral reefs, shellfish, and fisheries.

(Environmental Protection Agency 2010).

EPA must find that such inju ry is an unreasonable risk. 34 While Congress did not define the phrase “unreasonable risk,” EPA has interpre ted relevant legislative history to require that the agency:

balance the benefits derived from risk reduction against the social and economic costs incurred, taking into account such f actors as the extent and magnitude of risk posed; the societal consequences of removing or restricting use of products; availability and potential hazards of substitutes; and impacts on industry, employment, and international trade. 35

No specific factual determination is necessa ry to establish “unr easonable risk.” For example, even under the stricter standard of 15 U.S.C. § 2606, EPA need not present evidence of actual injury be fore obtaining emergency injunctive relief to control “immanently hazardous chemical substance[s] or mixture[s].” 36 For the reasons discussed below, application of the agency’s balanci ng test supports the a dditional regulation of

CO 2

.

33 15 U.S.C. § 2605(a).

34 Id.

35 EPA, Guidance for Petitioning the Environmental Protec tion Agency Under Section 21 of the Toxic Substances Control Act, 50 Fed. Reg. 46,825 (Nov. 13, 1985).

36 See H.R. Conf. Rep. No. 94-1679 78 (1976).7 According to scientific experts: “Reducing CO 2 emissions is the only way to minimise [sic] longterm, large-scale risks” (IBGP et al. 2013).

1. CO 2 Pollution Presents an Unreaso nable Risk of Injury to the
Environment

There is clear consensus among leading nationa l and international sc ientific bodies that anthropogenic CO 2 causes changes in ocean chemistry that harm the marine environment. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (“ IPCC”) determined that human sources of CO 2 have caused a significant decline in surface ocean pH (Rhein et al. 2013), and over 90 national academies of sciences, including the United Stat es’, have signed a statement that ocean acidification will “cause grave harm to important marine ecosystems as CO 2 concentrations reach 450 ppm and above” (Interacademy Panel 2009). The Interacademy Panel concluded that

CO 2 has increased ocean acidity w ith “potentially profound conseque nces for marine plants and animals” including severe threats to coral reef s, polar ecosystems, and a likely reduction in marine food supplies ( Id. ). The National Research Council also acknowledges that “existing data support a growing consensus in the research co mmunity that most documented responses to acidification reflect impairment of physiological capacity or pe rformance” for marine life with likely substantial socioeconomi c impacts (National Research Council 2013). The U.S. National
Climate Assessment concluded that ocean acidification will alter ma rine ecosystems in dramatic ways including threatening cora l reef habitats and causing reduced growth and survival of shellfish in all regions (Doney et al. 2014).

EPA acknowledges that “ocean acidification presen ts a suite of envir onmental changes that would likely negatively affect ocean ecosystems, fisheries, and other marine resources.” 75 Fed. Reg. 13538 (Mar. 22, 2010). EPA previously conc luded that greenhouse gases, including CO 2 , endanger public health and the environmen t in part because of ocean acidification. 37

There is no doubt that CO 2 pollution is changing ocean chemistry and harming the marine environment. Unabated, there wi ll be severe and detrimental impacts on marine ecosystems, the economy, and public health. Accordingly, EPA must find that CO 2 poses an unreasonable risk to
the environment and health.

a. CO 2 Causes Irreversible Ocean Acidification

Ocean acidification is a major thr eat to the marine environment. The oceans have absorbed CO 2 emitted into the atmosphere from power plan ts, manufacturing, cemen t production, and land use changes. Between 1750 and 2011, human activities ha ve released 375 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere, and approximately half of that has b een absorbed by the oceans (Rhein et al. 2013). Each day about 22 million metric tons of CO 2 is taken up by the oceans (Feely et al. 2008). This uptake of CO 2 is changing ocean chemistry, causing the oceans to become more acidic. Since the industrial revolution surface ocean pH has declin ed by 0.11 units on average, corresponding with

37 EPA, Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act 80 (Dec. 7, 2009).8 a 30% increase in acidity (Orr et al. 2005; Caldeira & Wickett 2005). 38 If emissions continue unabated, ocean acidity will increa se up to 170% by the end of the century (IBGP et al. 2013).

Figure 1. Time series of at mospheric CO 2 at Mauna Loa (ppm v) and surface ocean pH and pCO2 ( μ atm) at Ocean Station Aloha in the subtropical North Pacific Ocea n (see inset map). Note that the increase in oceanic CO 2 over the period of obs ervations is consistent with the atmospheric
increase within the statistical limits of the measurements. (Feely et al. 2009).

Anthropogenic ocean acidification exceeds the trend in natural variability significantly, up to 30 times in some regions (Friedrich et al. 2012) . The rate of change in ocean acidity is unprecedented in the past 300 million years, a period that includes four mass extinctions (Honisch et al. 2012; Zeebe 2012). The seawater chemistry change is an order of magnitude faster than what occurred 55 million years a go during Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which is considered to be the closest analogue to the present, and dur ing that period 96% of marine species went extinct ( Id. ). The current changes in seawater chemistry are irreversible on human timescales (Royal Society 2005).

CO 2 ’s impact on ocean chemistry is fundamenta lly altering the marine environment with negative impacts on marine specie s, habitats and ecosystems.

i. What Is Ocean Acidification

When the ocean absorbs CO 2 from the atmosphere it changes ocean chemistry. CO 2 that is absorbed by seawater reacts to form carbonic aci d, which dissociates to form bicarbonate and releases hydrogen ions. This re action reduces the amount of carbona te ions and decreases pH. The oceans store a significant amount of the CO 2 pollution from human activities (Royal Society 2005). While this has provided society with an important service of buffering against climate change impacts, it comes at a cost to the marine environment.

38 Because the pH scale is logarithmic a small decrease is a significant change in acidity ; for example, a decrease of 0.1 pH is an approximate 30 percent increase in acidity.9 Globally, surface water pH has declined 0.11 units on average between 1750 and 1994 (Sabine et al. 2004). Long-term monitoring has documented the impact of increasing atmospheric CO 2 on declining seawater pH in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans ( see Figure 2). Results from time-series
stations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific show a decrease of about 0.002 pH per year (Rhein et al. 2013).

Figure 2. Long-term trends of surface seawater pH at three subtropical ocean time series in the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans, incl uding (a) Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS, 31°40’N, 64°10’W; green) and Hydrostation S (32°10’, 64°30’W) from 1983 to present(updated from Bates, 2007); (b) Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) at Station ALOHA (A Longterm Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment; 22°45’N, 158°00’W; orange) from 1988 to present (updated from Dore et al., 2009) and (c) Europe an Station for Time series in the Ocean (ESTOC, 29°10’N, 15°30’W; blue) from 1994 to present (updated from González-Dávila et al., 2010). Atmospheric pCO2 (black) from the Mauna Loa Observatory Hawaii is shown in the top panel. Lines show linear fits to the data, whereas Table 3.2 give results for harmonic fits to the data (updated from Orr, 2011).(Rhein et al. 2013)

Ocean acidification not only makes the oceans more acidic, but it also re duces the amount of
carbonate ions available for animal s to build the shells and skel etons they need to survive. Carbonate is an important constituent of seawat er because many organisms form their shells and skeletons by complexing calcium and carbonate. Wate rs that are supersatur ated with aragonite are generally good for shell-building, while undersaturate d waters (<1.0 Ω
ar ) are corrosive to some marine animals. Corals requi re supersaturated waters above 3.3 Ω
ar (Meissner et al. 2012). Globally, there has been a decrease of about -0.4 Ω
ar (Gruber et al. 2012). The aragonite
saturation state has declined 16% since the Industrial Revolu tion due, in large part, to anthropogenic CO 2 (Feely et al. 2012a; Ishii et al. 2011) . Modeling of the oceans’ aragonite saturation predicts that by the end of the century up to 75% of ocean volume could be undersaturated with respect to aragonite (Joos et al. 2011).

ii. Observed and Predicted Acidification

CO 2 has already had measurable impacts on seawat er chemistry. Some regions, such as those with upwelling systems or high latitudes, are es pecially vulnerable to ocean acidification.10 1. Pacific Coast

The West Coast is already experiencing adverse im pacts of ocean acidification. As early as 2008, a survey off the coasts of Washington, Oregon, and California revealed that this region is already experiencing corrosive waters not expected until mid-century (See fi gure 3) (Feely 2008).
Researchers found seawater undersaturated with respect to aragonite upwelling onto large portions of the continental shelf, reachi ng shallow depths of 40 to 120 meters ( Id. ). According to the study, the waters were last at the surface approximately 50 years ago when atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were much lower (Feely et al. 2008) . Feely et al. report that in the Pacific Ocean
there has been a decrease of the saturation state of surface seawater with respect to aragonite and calcite as well as an upward shoaling of the sa turation horizon by about 1-2 meters per year on average, due in large pa rt to anthropogenic CO 2 (R. A. Feely, Sabine, et al. 2012). As a result, marine organisms in surface waters, in the wa ter column, and on the sea floor along the West Coast of the United States are already being exposed to corrosive water during the upwelling

season.

Modeling of the California Current System demons trates that the area is rapidly approaching year-round undersaturation with respect to aragonite and it is depart ing significantly from natural variability (Hauri et al. 2013). Ti me series monitoring shows that the aragonite saturation state along the California coast is much lower than would be expected in the North Pacific (Harris, DeGrandpre et al. 2013). Surface Ω
ar values ranged between 0.66 and 3.9 compared to an estimated pre-industrial range of 1.0 to 4.7. While some areas, like Puget Sound, already exhibit undersaturated conditions every ye ar (Feely, Klinger, et al. 2012; Reum et al. 2014), scientists predict that most shallow shelf areas along th e West Coast will become undersaturated with respect to aragonite within the next 20-30 y ears (Capone & Hutchins 2013; Gruber et al. 2012).11 Figure 3. Distribution of the depths of the undersaturated water (aragonite saturation < 1.0; pH < 7.75) on the continental shelf of western North America from Queen Charlotte Sound, Canada, to San Gregorio Baja California Sur,Mexico. On tran sect line 5, the corrosive water reaches all the way to the surface in the inshore wa ters near the coast. The black dots represent station locations (Feely et al. 2008).

2. Alaskan Waters

High latitude waters are the “be llwether” of ocean acidification b ecause these will be the first ocean regions to become persistently undersaturat ed with respect to ar agonite as a result of greenhouse gas pollution (Fabry et al. 2009; Stein acher et al. 2009). High-latitude waters have naturally lower carbonate ion concen trations and saturati on states due to a combination of cold temperatures which increase the solubility of CO 2 and ocean mixing patterns (Fabry et al. 2009; Mathis et al. 2011a). As early as 2016, 10% of Arctic surface waters are expected to be undersaturated with respect to aragonite for at le ast one month per year (Steinacher et al. 2009).

Recent observations of calcium carbonate saturati on states in the North Pacific and Bering Sea
have found that full water column undersatur ation of calcium carbonate due to ocean acidification is already prevalent. Mathis et al . (2011a) reported that ex tensive areas of bottom waters over the Bering Sea shelf are becoming unde rsaturated with respect to aragonite for at least several months (July to September), and so me areas of bottom water were already observed to be undersaturated with respect to calcite (Fabry et al. 2009, Mathis et al. 2011a).12 Scientists predict that polar waters will be co rrosive to shellbuilding animals within decades (IBGP et al. 2013). A 2015 study of observations in th e Chukchi and Beaufort Seas in the Arctic indicates that within 15 years waters will become so corrosive that it will be difficult for marine animals to build and maintain their shells (Mathi s et al. 2015). The highly productive fisheries of Alaska are in some of the most rapidly changi ng seawater conditions (M athis et al. 2014).

3. Sub-tropical Waters

Subtropical waters have experi enced declining saturation states due to ocean acidification. Within decades, scientists believe that ocean acid ification will impair cora l growth (IBGP et al. 2013). Models show that by the end of the centur y, most coral reef areas will no longer have aragonite saturation states that are optimal for coral growth. A 10-year study of the Caribbean region found a strong regional decrease in ar agonite saturation state between 1996-2006, from 4.05 to 3.9, resulting from CO 2 (Gledhill et al. 2008). Modeling predicts that under various
emissions scenarios the coral reefs in the Cari bbean will be thermally and chemically stressed between now and 2030 (Meissner et al. 2012). Even under the most optimistic scenario, 98% of reefs will be stressed by 2050 ( Id. ). In the Pacific subtropical ocea n near Hawaii, there are nearly 20 years of time-series measurements of signifi cant decreasing seawater pH that match the ocean’s uptake of atmospheric CO 2 (Dore et al. 2009)

4. Atlantic Coast

Even ocean waters not at high latitude, in upw elling systems, or containing coral reefs ecosystems are, or will soon be, exhibiting signs of ocean acidification. Ob servations of East Coast waters during all seasons show that while they remain supersaturated with respect to aragonite, by the end of this century, saturati on states of aragonite a nd calcite will decrease by 20–40%, with the lowest Ω ar dropping to 1.3 in some seasons (Jiang et al. 2010). A survey of the
Atlantic Coast showed that waters in the Northe ast and particularly the Gulf of Maine are the most susceptible to ocean acidification (Wang 2013).

iii. CO 2 Kills and Injures Marine Life

High-CO 2 waters seriously harm marine wildlif e and the entire ocean ecosystem. When CO 2 concentrations in seawater increase, the availa bility of carbonate ions decreases, making it more difficult for marine organisms to form, build, an d maintain the calcium carbonate shells and skeletons required for their surviv al. As seawater becomes more co rrosive, it can kill fish eggs and inhibit the development of, and essentially dissolve, the shells of small crustaceans, baby shellfish, and other tiny creatures at the base of the food web (Fabry 2008). Ocean acidification also harms and stresses fish, squid, and other animals that do not build shells ( Id. ). Not only does ocean acidification directly threat en various types of marine animal s, it also has implications for
the broader marine environment and food web.

The harmful effects of ocean acidification have already begun to occur. For example, ocean
acidification has caused:

 A massive die-off of oysters in the Pacific Northwest (Barton et al . 2012; R. a. Feely, Sabine, et al. 2012; Washington State Blue Ribbon Panel 2012);13  Declines in abundance and size of the California mussel, bl ue mussel and goose barnacle in tidepools correlated with a severely declining pH (Woo tton et al. 2008);

 Sluggish growth of corals in the Caribbean and Great Barrier Reef (De’ath et al. 2009; De’ath et al. 2012; Gled hill et al. 2008); and

 Shells of plankton to dissolve off the Califor nia Coast and thinner and weaker shells of plankton in the Southern Ocean (Bednarsek 2014; Moy et al. 2009).

In a meta-analysis of over 400 experiments ex amining the impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms, Kroeker et al. (2013) found th e biological effects to be generally large and negative. This analysis was restricted to expe riments with pH manipul ations of less than 0.5 units, in order to reflect the predicted level of ocean acidification by the e nd of the century (IPCC 2007). By limiting the analysis to small variatio ns in pH, this study shows that within the
foreseeable future ocean acidification will have “profound repercussions for marine organisms” (Kroeker et al. 2010). While the negative effect of ocean acidification was most pronounced for calcification and survival (27% re ductions in both responses), the study also revealed significant negative effects on growth and reproduction ( 11 to 19%, respectively) . In addition, abundance was reduced by 15%. The strength of this analysis suggests that th e patterns highlighted in this study are a robust representation of the curr ent literature on ocean acidification.

While most of the worst consequences of ocean acidification are pred icted for the future, scientists have already observed damage from CO 2 in the oceans. Additionally, the impacts of
ocean acidification can affect th e entire marine food web by alte ring habitat, prey availability, and species interactions.

b. High-CO 2 Waters Injure the Growth, Survival, Fitness, and Reproduction of Marine Animals

The primary known harm of CO 2 in the oceans is that it impairs the growth and survival of
animals that build shells. Because ocean acidificat ion reduces the availability of carbonate ions
that marine animals use to calci fy their shells and skeletons, CO 2 reduces the ability of these animals to build their protective structures (Doney et al. 2009). Acidified wa ters can also damage
and dissolve shells.

These negative effects have been observed in th e ocean as well as documented in laboratory studies. Corals, coralline algae, plankton, mollusks, and other shellfish exposed to future levels
of ocean acidification have all experienced problems (Kleypas & Yates 2009; Kuffner et al. 2007; Barton et al. 2012; Talmage & Gobler 201 1; Talmage & Gobler 2009; Orr et al. 2005; Riebesell et al. 2000).

i. Molluscs, Echinoderms, and Crustaceans

High CO 2 waters are lethal to shellfish. Since 200 5, waters off the coast of Washington and Oregon have been killing oysters and other mollu scs. Shellfish hatcheries in Washington and Oregon reported massive mort alities of oyster larvae (Was hington State Blue Ribbon Panel 2012).Wild oysters also failed to re produce in Willapa Bay, Washington ( Id. ). Scientists have definitively linked oyster production failures to high-CO 2 ocean waters that were used to raise larvae (Barton et al. 2012).14 In response to reported shellfish hatchery problem s in Oregon, Barton et al . reported the results of their observations from the Whiskey Creek Hatchery on Netarts Bay in the summer of 2009 (Barton et al. 2012). Unlike prev ious laboratory experiments, this study analyzed calcifying organism responses in the ambient-water CO 2 chemistry of Oregon’s coastal waters. Larval production and mid-stage growth (~120 um to ~150 um) of the oyster, Crassostrea gigas , were both significantly negatively correlated with the ch emistry of waters in which larval oysters were spawned and reared for the firs t 48 hours of life. Although the im pact of the exposure was not immediate, the delayed reaction caused a signific ant decline in growth for mid-sized oyster larvae and reduced overall production. The findings corroborate other laboratory studies that show that many marine species, especially at th e larval stage, are adve rsely affected by ocean
acidification.

Scientific studies have demonstr ated that even modest pH dec lines affect the sensitive and vulnerable early developmental stages of organisms because these life histories have specific environmental needs (Kurihara 2008) ( see Figure 10, below, showing negative effects from low pH treatments). A number of studies have found a delay in development or less development, degraded shells, decreased rate of metamorphosis , shell thickness, and loss of hinge integrity (Ross et al. 2011a). The resulting reduced larval size can reduce the feeding efficiency of larvae, and smaller larvae are more susceptible to star vation because they encounter comparatively less food (Kurihara & Shirayam a 2004). Sub-lethal effect s of elevated acidity can severely alter the composition and fitness of larvae, and given th e high mortality rates of larvae in the water column and during the transition to benthic settle r, small perturbations to larvae potentially may have large alterations to settlement dynamics , post-settlement mortality, recruitment, and ultimately adult populations (Ross et al. 2011).

Watson et al. (2009) exposed one day-old oyster la rvae to a range of pH conditions, from 7.6 to 8.1, for 10 days and showed significant decline in the survival and growth of young larvae at lower pH. Waldbusser et al. (2010) , in a study on the Chesapeake Bay, showed that even modest changes in pH present conditions that are corrosive to shells and have physiological impacts on adult and larval oysters. Biocalcification declined significantly with a redu ction of 0.2 pH units, making juvenile bivalves more susceptible to predation and other mortality factors ( Id. ).

Negative effects have been seen on the metamorphos is, size, and survival of larval hard clams ( Mercenaria mercenaria ), bay scallops ( Argopecten irradians ), and Eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) at levels of CO 2 predicted to occur in the 21 st century (Talmage & Gobler 2011). At 650 ppm, or an approximate drop of 0 .3-0.4 from pre-indust rial values, both M. mercenaria and

A. irrandians larvae exhibited dramatic declines ( over 50%) in survivorship as well as significantly delayed matamorphosis and significantly smaller size. C. virginica also experienced lowered growth and delayed metamorphosis at this level, an indicator th at current and future
increases in CO 2 populations may deplete or alter the composition of shellfish populations in coastal ecosystems ( Id. ).

The Olympia oyster, Ostrea lurida , a foundation species in estuar ies along the Pacific coast, exhibits clear decline in larval grow th and settlement as levels of CO 2 affect seawater pH. (Hettinger et al. 2012). Oysters in this experiment were raised at three levels of seawater pH,15 including a control (8.0) and two additional le vels (7.9 and 7.8). La rvae reared under pH 7.8
exhibited a 15% decrease in larval shell growth rate, and a 7% decrease in shell area at settlement, compared to larvae reared under control conditions. Impacts were even more pronounced a week after settlement, with juveniles that had been reared as larvae under reduced pH exhibiting a 41% decreas e in shell growth rate.

Oysters on the Atlantic coast also experience the ill effects of ocean acid ification. Dickinson et al. (2012) found negative effects on juvenile easte rn oysters after exposure to water with a 0.2 pH change. Exposure of the oysters to elevated ac idity led to a significant increase in mortality, reduction of tissue energy stores and negative soft tissue growt h, indicating energy deficiency. Under ocean acidification conditions, thermal tolera nce is impaired in oyster larvae, leading to reduced development, size and increased abnorma lity (Ross et al. 2011; Parker et al. 2010).
Similar results have been found in red abalone , with thermal tolerance impaired at pH 7.87 compared to control (pH 8.05) (Zippay and Hoffman 2010).

In studies with edible mussel ( Mytilus edulis ) and Pacific oyster ( Crassostrea gigas ) researchers found a strong decline of calcification under ocea n acidification conditions (Gazeau et al. 2007). Based upon these results, researchers conclude d that mussel and oyster calcification may decrease by 25% and 10%, respective ly, by the end of the century.” ( Id. ). Oysters and mussels also exhibit development abnormalities when ex posed to acidification (Kurihara 2008). When oyster eggs were reared under pH 7.8, they showed malformations of their shell, and when reared under pH 7.4, more than 70% of the larvae were either completely non-shelled, or only partially shelled, and only 4% of CO 2 treated embryos developed in to normal larvae by 48 hours after fertilization, in contrast to about 70% successful development in control embryos.

The shrimp Palaemon pacificus displayed variable re sponses at different developmental stages, pH and length of exposure (Kurihara 2008). Follow ing long term (30 weeks) exposure of adults to pH 7.89 and 7.64, survival and egg production in early developmental stages decreased in both treatments. Findlay et al. (2010) found a slower rate of development of embryos in the common intertidal northern hemisphere barnacle Semibalanus balanoides with an estimated 19 days delay in reaching 50% hatching stage at pH 7.7. Other amphipods have e xhibited metabolic changes in response to acidification levels greater than what is allowed u nder the federal criterion (Hauton et al. 2009).

Echinoderms exhibit delayed and asymmetrical development when exposed to acidified conditions. In the absence of adequate adaptati on or acclimation, lowered pH levels will have a range of sub-lethal effects on sea urchins, br ittlestar and seastar larvae from a range of geographical regions (Ross et al. 2011). Larv ae of the ecological ke ystone brittlestar, Ophiothrix fragilis , either were abnormal, had altered sk eletal proportions, or asymmetry during skeletogenesis, and there was a delay in devel opment at pH levels of 7.9, or approximately 0.3 units below current surface levels (Gutowska et al. 2009). Other experiment s on brittlestar in low pH waters resulted in dramatic results; acidifi cation of 0.2 units induced 100% larval mortality within an eight day period. Control larvae showed 70% survival over the same period. Because
the calcite skeleton of the larval brittlestar ai ds key functions such as feeding and vertical migration, and defense against predators, abnormal development of the sk eleton will have drastic consequences for fitness. The developmental abnormalities may be exacerbated by temperature16 increases predicted for the end of the century; some scientists suggest that this may result in the disappearance of echinoderms from the surface ocean s within the next 50-100 years (Ross et al. 2011a).

Reproductive success is compromised by ocean acidific ation. The fertilization rate of sea urchins decreases with increasing CO 2 concentrations (8.1 to 6.8 pH) (Kurihara 2008). In another sea urchin experiment utilizing six CO 2 concentrations, with a pH between 8.01 (control) and 6.83, cleavage rate, developmental sp eed, and larval morphology all declined with increased CO 2 concentration (Kurihara & Shiray ama 2004). At a 0.2 change from c ontrol, effects could be seen on the morphology and development of the larvae , and these effects became more pronounced with greater pH changes ( Id. ) ( see Figure 4, below). The authors c oncluded that “all the effects
of raised CO 2 concentration observed in this study woul d have a negative impact on the survival of sea urchin embryos in their early life history.” A recent study showed that sea urchin sperm flagellar motility was significantly reduced when seawater pH decreased by .3 units, from 8.0 to 7.7 (Suwa et al. 2010). As discussed above, decrea sed flagellar motility has severe consequences for fertilization and subsequent population dynamics; if sperm lose their ability to find eggs, the population size will necessarily diminish.

Figure 4. Declining development of sea urchin larvae exposed to acidified waters (Kur ihara & Shir ayama 2004).

Even moderate increases in atmospheric CO 2 and ensuing acidification adversely affect the growth of both gastropods and sea urchins (Shira yama & Thornton 2005). Before the end of this century, atmospheric CO 2 is likely to increase by more than 200 ppm, decreasing the pH of the ocean by approximately 0.3 units from pre-industrial levels. Two species of sea urchin as well as the gastropod Strombus luhanus were exposed for six months to waters with this level of
elevated CO 2 , and all three species exhibited similar consequences. Increased CO 2 negatively affected growth rate, calcification, shell height and body mass, and metabolic activity17 (Shirayama & Thornton 2005). The developing embr yos of the gastropod and intertidal snail

Littorina obtusata also demonstrate slower overall development time, altered embryonic movement, and modification of shell shape in hatc hlings while exposed to acidified waters (pH 7.6) (Ellis et al. 2009).

Arnold et al. (2009) investigated the effect of ocean acidificat ion on lobsters and found that indirect disruption of calcification and carapa ce mass may adversely affect the competitive
fitness and recruitment success of larval lobs ters with serious cons equences for population dynamics and marine ecosystem function

Reduced metabolism is expected to impair pr edator-prey interactions, as well as have consequences for growth, reproduction, and surviv al. Metabolic suppression has previously been reported to occur in a variety of adult marine invertebrates, including crabs, squid, worms, bivalves, pteropods and amphipods (Albright 2011) . Slowed metabolism is generally achieved by halting energy-expensive processes, such as protein synthesis, and therefore may lead to reductions in growth and reproductive potential ( Id. ). The blue mussel Mytilus edulis has strong physiological mechanisms by which it is able to protect body tissues against short-term exposure to acidified seawater, but these come at an en ergetic cost, and will result in reduced growth during long term exposures (Bibby et al. 2008). Consequently, the predic ted long-term changes to sea water are likely to have a significant e ffect on the health and survival of blue mussel populations ( Id. ). Mussel beds are a domina nt coastal habitat and provi de food and structure for a diverse array of species in an otherwise physically stressful e nvironment; any decline in their population structure will lead to a reduction in appropriate habitat fo r a myriad of other species.

In summary, acidified waters impact the deve lopment, growth, and reproductive success of a suite of echinoderms, crustace ans, and molluscs. A growing body of information is becoming available on the effecting of declining pH on th ese organisms and their ecosystems. The results of these studies are clear; as pH falls even 0.2 units from pre-i ndustrial values, these organisms will struggle to survive in their increasingly acidic environment.

ii. Corals

Coral reef ecosystems, which are estimated to harbor one-third of marine species and which support the livelihoods of a half billion people, are particularly threatened by ocean acidification. Some corals are already experiencing reduced calcification (De’ath et al. 2009; Cooper et al. 2008; Bates et al. 2010; Gledhill et al. 2008). Due to the ocean acidification and warming, reefs are projected to experience “rapid and terminal” declines worldwide at atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 450 ppm (Veron et al. 2009; Bijma et al. 2013). Pr ominent coral scientists have called for reducing atmospheric CO 2 to less than 350 ppm to prot ect coral reefs from collapse (Veron et al. 2009, Frieler et al. 2012). Coral reefs cannot exist belo w 7.8 pH units (Fabricius et al. 2011), and the threshold for coral growth is 3.3 Ω
ar (Meissner et al. 2012).

Ricke et al. (2013) analyzed aragonite saturation state ( Ω
ar ) surrounding reefs in CMIP5 simulations under several represen tative concentration pathway ( RCP) scenarios (Ricke et al. 2013). The study found that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ω a > 3.5. Accordingly, the study used Ω a = 3.5 as18 an upper bound viability threshold for corals , while also examining thresholds of Ω a = 3.25 and 3. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), ev ery coral reef considered was projected to be surrounded by water with Ω
ar < 3 by the end of the 21st century and the reefs’ long-term fate was independent of their specific saturation threshold. Under scenarios with significant CO 2 emissions abatement, the Ω
ar threshold for reefs was critical to projecting their fate. The study
concluded that the “results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters
with Ω
ar > 3:5 to the end of the century, very aggre ssive reductions in em issions are required.”

Corals are among the ecosystems mo st threatened by ocean acidifica tion. To date, most scientific investigations into the effects of ocean acidification on coral reefs ha ve been related to the reefs’ unique ability to produce voluminous amounts of calcium carbonate (Kleypas & Yates 2009). The persistence of carbonate struct ures on coral reefs is essential in providing habitats for a large number of species and maintaining the extrao rdinary biodiversity associated with these ecosystems. As a consequence of ocean acidificat ion, the ability of mari ne calcifiers to produce calcium carbonate will decrease, resulting in a transition from a condition of net accretion to one of net erosion, with drastic consequences for th e role and function of these ecosystems (Kleypas & Yates 2009).

Coral reefs are predicted to drastically lower th eir calcification rates in the near future, and
historical records show that ca lcification rates have already fa llen relative to pre-industrial values. According to scientists, the main reef building organisms will calcify up to 50% less relative to pre-industr ial rates by the middle of this century ( Id. ). A drop of approximately 60%
coral reef calcification is projected for the end of the centu ry, when pH is predicted to fall 0.5 units below pre-industrial values (Caldeira & Archer 2007). Many studies suggest calcification rates could be reduced between 20-60% at 560pp m, or 7.9 pH, and that a reduction of this magnitude would fundamentally alter reef st ructure and function (Convention on Biological Diversity 2009). According to the model of S ilverman et al. (2009), developed from field observations from more than 9,000 reef locations , all coral reefs are expected to reduce calcification by more than 80% rela tive to their pre-industrial ra te at 560 ppm (0.3 pH change), and at this point “all coral reefs will cease to grow and start to dissolve.” The Interacademy Panel on International Issues concurs; “at current emission rates models suggest that all coral reefs and polar ecosystems will be severely affected by 2050 or potentially even earlier.”

In a meta-analysis on coral calcif ication responses to ocean acidif ication, the coral calcification declined by a mean of 15% per unit decrease in aragoni te saturation state (2 < Ω < 4) (Chan and Connolly 2013). On current emission trends, calc ification will decline 22% on average for corals by the end of the century ( Id. ). This falls to the lower range of responses that have been predicted by ocean acidification researchers and descri bed above, which the authors believe reflects
variation in the calcification re sponses of different corals.

Calcification rates at coral reef locations in th e western tropical Pacifi c and the Caribbean may have already declined by 15%, (Caldeira & Archer 2007), and data from the Great Barrier Reef
indicates a 14% decline in calcification rates between 1990 and 2005 (De’ath et al. 2009). Other
studies in the Great Barrier reef indicate a decline of approxima tely 21%, and analysis of coral growth records confirm that th is decline is unprecedented in recent centuries (Cooper et al. 2008). A model based on field samples shows th at calcification of co ral reefs in French19 Polynesia declined 15% between the pre-industrial period and 1992, and that rate s will decline 40% by 2050, when CO 2 levels reach 560 ppm (pH 7.9) (A nthony et al. 2011). Near Bermuda,
historical records show that coral skeletal de nsity has decreased 33%, and coral calcification rates have declined by 52% as a result of change s in seawater carbonate ch emistry (Bates et al. 2010). These observed changes have occurred even before a 0.2 unit decline in ocean pH; as atmospheric CO 2 continues to rise and lower pH values, calcification rates will maintain their precipitous decline.

Ocean acidification acts in concert with ocean warming and coral bleaching in furthering coral reef decline (Anlauf et al. 2011) (observing a 3% reducti on in acidification w ith a 0.2 decline in pH, and a 30% decline when acidification is coupled with 1° C warming). While natural variability in the annual cycle and interannual variability may account for some of the observed change in coral growth rates, scientists are “vir tually certain” that anth ropogenic trends already exceed natural variability (Friedrich et al. 2012 ). Studies projecting the combined impacts of ocean acidification and ocean warming on cora ls predict that coral erosion will exceed calcification rates at atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 450 to 500 ppm, (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007), and all coral reefs will begin dissolve at CO 2 concentrations of 560 ppm (Silverman et al. 2009). These figures correspond to a 0.2 and 0.3 unit drop in pH, respectively, as compared to pre-industrial values. Van Hooidonk et al. (2014) presented updated global projections for threats to coral reefs from ocean warming and ocean acidification based on ensembles of IPCC AR5 climate models using the Representative Concentr ation Pathways (RCPs). For all tropical reef locations, the study projected abso lute and percentage changes in aragonite saturation state ( Ω
ar ) for the period between 2006 and the onset of annual severe bleaching.

In the Caribbean, a recent study concluded that “coral reef communities are likely to be essentially gone from substantial parts of the Southeast Caribbean by the year 2035” (Buddemeier et al. 2011). The Great Barrier Reef ha s lost 50% of its coral cover since 1985 as a
result of the combined effect s of ocean acidification, global warming, coral bleaching, coral predation by starfish, and cyclone damage (De’ath et al. 2012). In short, due to the synergistic impacts of ocean acidification, mass bleaching, and local impacts, coral reefs are projected to experience “rapid and terminal” decl ines worldwide at atmospheric CO 2 concentrations 450 ppm, or pH 8.0, a level that is expected before mid-century (Veron et al. 2009).

Many experimental studies show declining calcifi cation rates and other ill effects when corals are exposed to acidified waters. Decreases in calcificat ion rates across a suite of benthic species and calcifying systems range from 3 to 60% for a doubling in pCO 2 , which corresponds to a 0.3 reduction in pH (Abbasi & Abbasi 2011). The average response of corals is a 30% decline in calcification in respons e to a doubling in pCO 2 ( Id. ). In a study of an assemblage of corals exposed to conditions designed to mimic the cha nge that may be experienced in the next 50-100 years (pH decline of 0.22 to 0.28 units), calcifi cation rates declined between 44% and 80%.

The coral Acropora palmata (listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act), once the dominant reef building coral in the Caribbean, ex periences impaired fertil ization, settlement, and growth with increasing pCO 2 (Albright et al. 2010). The cumulative impact of ocean
acidification on fertilization and settlement succe ss is an estimated 52% and 73% reduction in
the number of larval sett lers on the reef under pCO 2 conditions projected for the middle and end20 of this century, respectively (0.2 and 0.5 decline in pH) ( Id. ). After only 8 days of high CO 2 conditions (pH 7.75), Acropora experiences a statistically significant (18%) reduction in calcification rate (Murubini et al . 2003). Furthermore, there 22 co ral species listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act primarily because of threats from ocean warming, acidification and disease. The rule proposing lis ting for the corals found that ocean acidification was one of the highest priority threats for corals:

Ocean acidification has the potential to cause substantial reduction in coral
calcification and reef cementation. Furthe r, ocean acidification adversely affects adult growth rates and fecundity, fertili zation, pelagic planula settlement, polyp development, and juvenile growth.

77 Fed. Reg. at 73230 (Dec. 7, 2012). In other wo rds, ocean acidification is driving the
extinction of corals and the destru ction of coral reef ecosystems.

Experimental studies evaluating the effects of o cean acidification on early life history stages of corals generally conclude that primary polyp gr owth is hindered by increasing acidity (Albright et al. 2010, Cohen & Holcomb 2009). Renegar and Rieg l (2005) showed a si gnificant decrease in the growth rate of Acropora cervicornis larvae at pH levels 0.3-0.5 units below control. Larvae of the common Atlantic golf ball coral, Favia fragum , shows significant delays in both the
initiation of calcification and subs equent growth of the primary co rallite in acidic waters (8.17 – 7.54 pH) (Cohen & Holcomb 2009). Visible changes in the skeletal development were observed in all non-control treatments, a nd in the most acidic waters sk eletal development was 75% less
than the control.

Acidification also affects cold water corals. Cold water cora ls have a worldwide but patchy distribution, and are often found in areas with highly productive fisheries (De Mol et al. 2002; Kenyon et al. 2003). Overall, more than two-thirds of all known coral species are cold water corals (Roberts & Hirshfield 2012; Cairns 2007). Recent explorati on and research that has begun to search for, map, and observe cold water co rals has found that these organisms are fragile, long-lived, slow-growing, very sensitive to physi cal or environmental disturbance and adapted for a specific environmental niche (McDonough & Puglise 2003). Alaskan waters are already showing widespread evidence of ocean acidificat ion as a result of greenhouse gas emissions (Mathis et al. 2011a). By 2100, 70% of cold-water corals will be exposed to corrosive waters (Convention on Biological Diversity 2009). Conditi ons in waters typically inhabited by coldwater corals are even less favorable for calci fication than those experienced by warm water corals; this may cause cold-wat er corals to be affected earlier and more strongly by CO 2 -related
ocean acidification than th eir warm water counterparts (Abbasi & Abbasi 2011).

The vulnerable early developmental and reproduc tive stages of cold water corals may be especially strongly impacted (Kurihara 2008; Dupont & Thorndyke 2009; Kroeker et al. 2010). In an experiment on the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa , lowering the pH by 0.3 units relative
to the ambient level resulted in calcification be ing reduced by 56% (Maier et al. 2009). Lower pH reduced calcification more in fast grow ing, young polyps (59% reduction) than in older polyps (40% reduction). Thus, corals’ larvae and young corals are significantly more susceptible to ocean acidification than adults, and will like ly show a higher degree of reduced calcification21 and growth with reduced pH, making young and larval corals less likely to su rvive to maturity as the ocean continues to absorb anthropogenic CO 2 and as climate change progresses.

In addition to reduced calcificati on rates, the strength of cemen tation may also be reduced in waters with a lower pH, promoting higher rates of physical and bio-eros ion (Manzello et al. 2008). Once coral reefs experience lowered calcification and poor cementation, erosion and reef flattening can result, which severe ly reduced the structural heter ogeneity of reefs and lowers its potential to support biodiversity. An important new study of reef bioerosion determined that the
combined effects of lower calcification with in creased bioerosion can significantly degrade coral reefs (Wissshak et al. 2012). In the study, a comm on bioeroding sponge in the Great Barrier Reef was observed on massive Porites. The sponge was mo re effective at bioerosion of the corals at high CO 2 , ranging from 17% increase from present day levels to 61% incr ease at the highest

CO 2 treatment. The researchers describe the im portant role of balancing the antagonistic processes of calcification and bi oerosion in a reef for a healt hy coral ecosystem, and predict detrimental consequences under ocean acidifica tion as calcification declines and bioerosion
increases.

Bioerosion may result in a loss of change in fish assemblages, lower densities of commercially important species, and lower rates of larval fish recruitment (Feary et al. 2007). Weaker reef calcification and cementation also increases the pote ntial for reef damage as storm frequency and intensity increases with continued global warn ing, leading to furthe r reef degradation ( Id. ). In a study looking at the impacts of storm damage and ocean acidification, res earchers concluded that table coral populations ar e vulnerable to collapse (Madin et al. 2012). In the Indo-Pacific, table corals provide an important role in the reef ecosystem by creati ng reef structur e and sheltering other reef species. They are also particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, thermal stress, bleaching, disease and stress from storm waves. Th e table corals will become more vulnerable to
storm waves as ocean acidification reduces ca lcification and increases bioerosion, therefore weakening their cementation and structure. Madi n et al. (2012) found th at a coral colony was four times more likely to be dislodged by a storm wave by the end of the century ocean
acidification levels. Because of th is vulnerability, the results show ed that table corals are prone to large and rapid declin es in coral cover.

Numerous biological responses i ndependent of calcification ar e also negatively impacted by
ocean acidification. Corals in acidi fying waters are likely to be in a nutritionally or energetically
stressed state and thus less lik ely to initiate reproduction, or successfully reproduce, due to negative impacts of ocean acidificat ion on all stages of the reproduc tive cycle (Maier et al. 2009; McCulloch et al. 2012). Sperm flag ellar motility also declines in response to decreasing pH. If sperm lose their ability to find eggs in the vast ex tent of the sea, the life of marine organisms is potentially limited. Sperm flagellar motility, which is indispensable for fertilization, is regulated by an elevation of intracellular sperm pH (Morita et al. 2010). While 69% of Acropora sperm were motile at pH 8.0, 46% were motile at pH 7.8, and fewer than 20% at pH 7.7 ( Id. ). Additionally, the physiologi cal costs associated with reproducti on are more likely to result in the demise of the organism due to the compounding stressors from ocean acidification and climate change (Wood et al. 2008, Cohen & Holcomb 2009) . Significant reductions in metabolism have been observed for coral larvae following exposure to waters with a 0.2 decline in pH, levels projected to occur by the middle of this century (Albright & Langdon 2011).22 Albright et al. (2010) concl uded that with increased CO 2 concentrations to those projected to occur in this century (560 atm to 800 atm, or a 0.3 to 0.5 decline in pH from pre-industrial values), the fertilization success of the tropical reef-building coral Acropora palmata decreased by 12-13%, settlement success reduced 45-69%, and linear extension was significantly reduced. The compounding effect of these impacts translat ed to 52-73% reduction in the number of larval settlers on the reef. Albright et al. (2010) pr edicted that the net impa ct on recruitment would actually be greater than that give n that the depressed post-settlement growth is likely to result in elevated rates of post-settlement mortality. Th is corroborates other st udies showing negative impacts on early-stage tropical corals.

Albright and Langdon (2011) tested the effects of ocean acidifi cation on sexual recruitment of tropical corals. Larval metabolis m was depressed by 27% at acid ification levels expected by mid-century (0.3 pH reduction) and 63% at end- of-century acidificati on levels (0.4-0.5 pH reduction). Settlement was also reduced 42-45% and 55-60% at the mid and end-of-century levels respectively, relative to controls (A lbright & Langdon 2011). Anothe r study of larvae of tropical corals showed that short-term or long term exposure of larvae to ocean acidification decreased their metamorphosis (Suwa et al. 2010). This means that even when larval survivorship is unchanged, the success of recr uiting new corals could be inhibited by ocean acidification ( Id. ).

Additionally, under conditions of acidification planktonic larv ae lose their preference for settlement on the optimal crustose corallin e algae communities (Doropoulos et al. 2012). Crustose coralline algae in turn, will experien ce a lower recruitment rate as marine waters become more acidic. Crustose coralline algae, a red calcifying algae, is of key importance in coral reef ecosystems, stabiliz ing reef structures and providi ng an important food source for benthic organisms (Convention on Biological Diversity 2009). Crusto se coralline algae form a major calcifying component of the marine bent hos from polar to tropical regions and are
considered to influence the settlement of coral recruits. With a mean pH change of 0.26 between control and treatment, Kuffner et al. (2007) found that crustose coralline algae growth rates declined by 40%, and recruitment rate and pe rcentage cover decreased by 78% and 92%, respectively.

In sum, reproduction is critical to maintaining a healthy coral reef popul ation, and the long-term impacts of ocean acidification on reproduction, especially on larval settlement and growth, may significantly reduce the cora ls’ ability to recover or maintain a population in the face of human
caused disturbances and anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. This would result in a lack of reproductive capacity, genetic bott lenecks, and population collaps e (Dupont et al. 2010; Ross et al. 2011).

As the world’s oceans become more acidic and le ss saturated with carbonate minerals, corals are expected to build weaker skeletons and experien ce slower growth rates, which will make it more difficult for corals to retain competitive advant age over other marine organisms (Guinotte et al. 2006). As coral skeletons weaken, they will become increasingly at risk of storm damage and bioerosion, which will reduce the structural comp lexity of the reef sy stem, reducing habitat quality and diversity alongside the loss of coastal protection f unctions (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007). At greater than 550 ppm, coral reef ecosystems will be reduced to “crumbling23 frameworks.” ( Id. ). Extensive studies have demonstrated that small changes in ocean chemistry will cause a suite of negative im pacts, from reduced calcification rates to lowered reproductive

success.

iii. Plankton

Plankton, which comprise the basis of the mari ne food web, are among the calcifying organisms adversely affected by ocean acidification. Change s to calcifying zooplankton, such as pteropods and foraminfera, have the potential to affect the ecological and tropic dy namics which govern the exchange of energy and cycling of nutrients throughout the marine food web (Gattuso & Hansson 2011). For example, the shelled pteropod, Limacina helicina , an Arctic pelagic mollusc, is a food source for higher predators such as fi shes, whales and birds that are particularly important in high latitude areas. L. helicina makes up about 60 percent of the pink salmon diet (Comeau et al. 2012). A decline of pteropod population would likely cause dramatic changes to various pelagic ecosystems, and impact the co mmercially important salmon fishery; a 10% decrease in pteropods can lead to a 20% re duction in pink salmon body weight (Aydin 2005).

Pteropods form integral component s of food webs, and are consider ed an overall indicator of ecosystem health (Orr et al. 2005). Studies have shown that pteropods exposed to a pH value predicted for the end of this century exhibite d a 28% decrease in calcification (Comeau et al. 2009). Experiments on L. helicina showed that changes fr om 8.05 pH to 7.89 pH ( Δ -0.16 units) cased shell dissolution and cracks appeared at 7.7 6pH, and linear extension of the shell decreased as a function of declining pH (Comeau et al. 2012). Samples show dissolution already happening in areas that have low aragonite saturation stat es. A sampling study off the coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington showed av erage to severe dissolution of L. helicina for 53% of onshore
individuals and 24% of offshor e individuals (Bednarsek 2014) . A sampling study in 2008 of the
Southern Ocean found severe dissolution of L. helicina in Ω
ara 1.0 (Bednarsek 2012). Another study found shell weights of one form of Antarctic specie s declined 35% from 1997-2006 (Roberts unpublished).

Ample studies corroborate that high CO 2 waters dissolve the shells of L. helicina and reduce calcification rates. Comeau et al. (20 10) noted decreased calcification for L. helicina with decrease in aragonite saturation. Lishka (2012) looked at overwintering L. helicina and L. retroversa in the Arctic and noted that they do no t calcify in the winter, and they are subject to dissolution under high CO 2 conditions. Bednarsek (2012) looked at L. helicina and Clio pyramidata from the Southern Ocean under different aragonite saturation st ates and recorded dissolution stages.

Modeling by Comeau et al. (2012) show s that by the end of the century Limacina helicina will not be able to calcify over much of the Arctic because of aragonite undersaturation—prediction may be conservative because it did not account for shell dissolution. Commentary suggests that as waters warm these pteropods will be trappe d in acidified conditions and will “disappear entirely by the end of the centur y.” Modeling suggests that waters in the California Current will be undersaturated year-round by 2050 (Gruber 2012) . Modeling of the Arctic suggests that by mid-century the Bering Sea will be persistently unde rsaturated with respect to aragonite (Mathis 2011). An analysis of survey measurements in 2005-2006 and 1991-1992 demonstrated a24 shoaling of the aragonite saturati on state in waters off Alaska (Feely et al. 2012). In the North Pacific the aragonite satura tion state shoaled to depths less than 200 m between 40  ̊ N and 50  ̊ N ( Id. ). On average, the calcite sa turation horizon in the Pacific shoaled about 1 m/yr from 1991 to 2006 ( Id. ).

Other species of plankton are also harmed by CO 2 . Another pteropod, Clio pyramidata, kept in aragonite undersaturated waters began to di ssolve within two days (Orr et al. 2005). Some coccolithophorids are also susceptible to oc ean acidification. Studies showed that CO 2 related changes to seawater caused reduced calcification, resulting in malformed and incomplete shells. Calcification of cocolithophorids declined 15-44% , and their shells were malformed as pH changed up to about 0.3 units (Riebesell et al. 2000). Coccolithophorids are globally distributed and bloom in massive areas affecting the optical properties of the ocean, reflecting light from the earth, and play a major role in the ocean carbon cycle. Elevated CO 2 concentrations also reduce the shell mass of foraminifera (Kleypas et al. 20 06). Modern shell weights of foraminifera in the
Southern Ocean are 30–35% lower than those from preindustrial sediments, which is consistent with reduced calcification induced by o cean acidification (Moy et al. 2009).

iv. Cephlopods and Fish

The negative physiological effects of ocean acidifica tion are not confined to invertebrates. For example, the gametes, embryos, and larvae of vert ebrates such as fish are vulnerable to changes in ocean chemistry and have shown impairments in their homing and predator/prey detection capabilities.

Changes in the ocean’s CO 2 concentration result in accumulation of CO 2 in the tissues and fluids of fish and other marine animals, called hypercap nia, and increased acidity in the body fluids, called acidosis. These impacts can cause a variet y of problems for marine animals, including
difficulties with acid-base re gulation, calcification, growth, respiration, energy turnover, predation response, and mode of metabolism (Pörtner et al. 2005; Pörtner et al. 2004). Studies have shown adverse impacts in squid and fish, among other animals (Rosa & Seibel 2008; Ishimatsu et al. 2004; Pörtner et al. 2004). For example, when expos ed to acidification, orange clownfish suffer a type of brain malfunction that interferes with their hom ing abilities and makes them 5-9 times more likely to swim toward a pr edator (Munday et al. 2009; Simpson et al. 2011; Ferrari et al. 2011).

Laboratory experiments have shown that ocean acidification at levels expected to occur within this century impairs larval orange clownfish and damselfish sensory abilities and behavior, making it more difficult for them to locate suitabl e settlement sites on r eef habitat and avoid predators. Specifically, ocean acidif ication disrupts smell, hearing, and behavior of larval orange clownfish, (Munday et al. 2009; Nilsson et al. 20 12), making larval clownfish attracted to odors from predators and unfavorable habitat (Munday et al. 2010; Dickson et al . 2010). Olfactory cues that prompted avoidance or neut ral behavior in controls (pH 8.15) stimulated strong preference
behavior in larvae raised at pH 7.8, in addition to significant reduction in response to usually positive preferences. Ocean acidification also impa irs the hearing capacity of larval clownfish, which is predicted to have ne gative effects on settlement succe ss and survival (Simpson et al. 2011).25 Similarly, research on six damselfish species found that ocean acidification impairs larval damselfish smell, vision, learning, behavior, and brain function, leadi ng to higher risk of mortality. For example, in acidified waters, larval damselfish (1) become attracted to predator odors and display much riskier behaviors, making them more prone to predation; two species
suffered a five-fold to nine-fold increase in predation rate at CO 2 levels of 700 to 850 ppm, or 0.3 pH units below control (Munday et al. 2009; Ferrari et al. 2011); (2) canno t discriminate between habitat olfactory cues, making it more difficult to locate appropriate settlement habitat (Devine et al. 2011); (3) settle on the reef during dangerous times—the full moon rather than new moon— when they are more vulnerable to predation (Devin e et al. 2011); (4) fail to visually recognize or evade important predator species; (5) cannot learn to respond appropriately to a common predator by watching other fish react or by smelling injured fish, unlike fish under normal conditions ( Id. ); and (6) suffer disruption of an importa nt neurotransmitter which is thought to result in the sensory and behavioral impairment observed in acidified co nditions (Nilsson et al. 2012).

An animal’s ability to transport oxygen is reduced by pH changes (Pörtner 2005). Water breathing animals have a limited capacity to compensate for changes in the acidity (Haugan 2006). For example, fish that take up oxygen and respire CO 2 through their gill s are vulnerable because decreased pH can affect the respiratory gas exchange (Royal Society 2005). Changes in metabolic rate are caused by the changes in pH, carbonates, and CO 2 in marine animals (Haugan 2006).

Squid, for example, show a very high sensitivit y to pH because of their energy intensive manner of swimming (Royal Society 2005). Because of their energy demand, even under a moderate 0.15 pH change squid have reduced ca pacity to carry oxygen and higher CO 2 pressures are likely to be lethal (Pörtner 2004). Even species more tolerant to pH changes experience decreased
metabolism from increased CO 2 in the water (Pörtner 2004). For example, as much as 50% mortality was observed in copepods after only six days of exposure to waters with a pH level 0.2 units below the control (Pörtner 2005). Reducing pH by 0.3 pH case d a 31% decline in metabolic rate and a 45% decrease in activity level for the ju mbo squid, an important predator in the Easter Pacific (Rosa & Seibel 2008).

In fish, pH also affects circulation. Fi shexposed to high concentrations of CO 2 in seawater experience cardiac failure and increased morta lity (Ishimatsu 2004). At lower concentrations sublethal effects can be expected that can seriously compromise th e fitness of fish. Juvenile and larval stages of fish were found to be even more vulnerable (Ishimatsu 2004).

In sum, ocean acidification can have many adve rse effects on marine animals that can reduce their fitness and survival (Royal Society 2005). Many marine animals have low thresholds for long-term CO 2 exposure (Pörtner 2005).

c. Other Environmental Impacts of Ocean Acidification

i. Increased Toxicity of Harmful Algal Blooms and Sediments

Ocean acidification may already be increasing th e toxicity of harmfu l algal blooms known as “red tides.” These toxic red tides poison she llfish, marine mammals, fish, and even cause26 paralytic shellfish poiso ning in people. High CO 2 levels in seawater magnify the toxins of harmful algae. (Fu et al. 2012; Av ery O Tatters et al. 2013; Tatters et al. 2012; Avery O. Tatters et al. 2013). Studies of the genus Pseudo-nitzscia show that the toxicity of diatoms which produce a neurotoxin increases significantly unde r ocean acidification conditions. A -0.5pH change caused toxin production in the diatoms to increase 4.2-fold and a -0.3pH unit change increased the toxicity 2.5-fold (Tatters et al. 2012). Many studies on the effects of ocean acidification and algal blooms have been conducted at CO 2 levels that are al ready occurring in California, and the increase in the toxicity of harmful algal blooms in Southern California (and resulting mass mortalities of fish and marine ma mmals) may be due, in part, to acidified waters ( Id. ) However, these studies suggest that the damage will become much worse.

Additionally, research shows that under conditio ns of ocean acidification sediments become more toxic (Roberts, Birche nough et al. 2013). Ocean acidification makes sediment-bound metals more available and thus more toxic for aquatic life ( Id. ) For example, ocean acidification increases the toxicity of copper (Campbell & Mangan 2014).

ii. Noise Pollution Increases in Low pH Waters

Ocean acidification can also decrease the sound ab sorption of seawater, cau sing sounds to travel further with potential impacts on marine mammals and other marine life sensitive to the sounds of vessel traffic, seismic surveys, and other noise pollution (Hester et al. 2008). Sound travels 10-15 percent further with a change of 0.1 pH, and it is predicted to increa se about 40 percent by mid-century (Hester et al. 2008). Additionally, a decline of 0.3 pH units causes a 40 percent decrease in the sound absorption of surface seawat er and sound may travel 70 percent farther, further affecting sensitive marine mammals (Brewer et al. 2009).

d. Ocean Acidification’s Ecosystem Impacts

While the full implications of elevated CO 2 on marine ecosystems are not well-documented, there is high confidence that there will be negative ecosystem consequences from ocean acidification. The exact changes are difficult to predict, but some of the anticipated impacts include loss of diversity, loss of abundance of calcifying species, shifting prey and predator interactions, and loss of suitable habitat.

New mesocosm studies have sought to understand some of the potential ecosystem impacts of

CO 2 . Studies of biodiversity near underwater vol canic vents demonstrate reduced richness in high-CO 2 waters. For example, coral species divers ity declined by about 39% between low and high-CO 2 sites, with the reefs shifting from comple x communities to a coral reef dominated by massive Porites. Most importan tly, the researchers found that co ral reef development ceases at 7.7 pH, and they concluded that a pH decline be low 7.8 would be “catastrophic for coral reefs” (Fabricius et al. 2011). Scientists also observed that in high-CO 2 waters the loss of complex coral
reef habitat resulted in a loss of diversity of reef-associated species such as crustaceans and crinoids (Fabricius et al. 2014) . Looking at the macroinvertebrate s, the density declined 48% between control and high-CO 2 areas and taxa diversity declined by 77% ( Id. ).27 Loss of species diversity associated with ocean acidification can also re sult from changes in competitive interactions. A study of a rocky reef near volcanic vents documented that macro algae outcompeted calcareous species in low-pH waters (Kroeker et al. 2012). The researchers explained that under the high-CO 2 conditions the calcifying specie s grew more slowly while the seaweed took hold and that graz ing of seaweed was depressed ( Id. ). In another study, while the
areas near volcanic vents lacked scleractinian corals and had low abundance of sea urchins and coralline algae, invasive algal species benefited from the acidified conditions (Hall-Spencer et al. 2008).

Research on the diversity the intertidal community in the Pacific Northwest documented a shift from a ecosystem dominated by calcifying animal s to one with non-calcifying organisms as pH
declined. Researchers documented declines in ab undance and size of the California mussel, blue mussel, and goose barnacle in tidepools on the Olympic Coast in Washington (Wootton et al. 2008). They found that in years with low pH wate rs the calcifying animals were replaced by noncalcifying organisms ( Id. ).

The synergistic impacts of ocean acidification an d warming are also potentially severe. Ocean acidification may induce a negative climate feedback that may increase temperature rise.
Mesocosm studies found that ocean acidif ication may amplify global warming through decreasing biogenic production of the marine sulfur component dimethylsulphide which can impact cloud albedo (Six 2013). Ocean acidification therefore may also contribute to climate change impacts on the environment.

2. Risk Reduction Costs and Benefits

EPA must make a determination whether the risk of ocean acidi fication is unreasonable and this constitutes a balancing of costs and benefits. Wh ile it is EPA’s burden to conduct this analysis, petitioners present some limited data on (1) the socio-economic costs of CO 2 pollution in light of ocean acidification, (2) the f easibility of controls on CO 2 pollution, and (3) the social cost of carbon including the costs of delaying action to reduce and mitigate CO 2 pollution.

a. Socioeconomic Costs of Ocean Acidification

The release of CO 2 into the environment is already havi ng social and economic impact, and these impacts are predicted to become even more c oncerning. Primary economic concerns are from the
loss of fisheries and coral reefs. Ocean acidification also poses f ood security and nutrition risks.

U.N. Convention on Biological Diversity estima ted costs on the predicted damage of ocean acidification and predicts that the oceans will lo se more than $1 trillion in value annually from ocean acidification (Convention on Biological Diversity 2014). CO 2 related ocean warming and
acidification will threaten marine food resour ces by disrupting marine communities, promoting harmful algal blooms and the spread of some diseases, and increas ing contaminants in fish and shellfish (Tirado et al. 2010).

The United Nations Environment Programme repor ted that ocean acidif ication’s impact on marine organisms is a threat to food securi ty (UNEP 2010). The report documents that ocean28 acidification is measurable and increasing, which poses a threat to fish eries resources and the billions of people that have a marine-based diet (United Nations Environment Programme 2010). Seafood has been shown to preven t hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, as well as significantly reduce infant mo rbidity; a decline of seafood availability will decrease these benefits. Some populations, including subsistence fishing populations and poor communities, depend on seafood and mortality an d morbidity can result from the loss of these food sources (Mozaffarian 2006). For example, 95% of Alaskan households do some sort of subsistence fishing, and 17% of the state’ s population, 120,000 people, depend on subsistence fishing (Mathis et al. 2014). Many subsistence fishers also have cu ltural ties threatened by ocean acidification. Accordingly, CO 2 can result in social and environmental justice concerns that must also be assessed and weighed (C onvention on Biological Diversity 2014).

Not only will ocean acidification affect global f ood webs and ecosystems, it will have a direct effect on the global economy. The U.S. economy is very dependent on the health of the ocean. In 2009, the ocean economy contributed over $223 billi on annually to the U.S. gross domestic product and provided more th an 2.6 million jobs (NOAA, http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/fact s/oceaneconomy.html). Cooley and Doney (2009) estimate that if just a 10-25% decrease in United States mo llusk harvests from 2007 were to occur today, $75-

187 million in direct revenue would be lost each year henceforth, with a net loss of $1.7-10 billion through mid-century, when pH levels are approximately 0.3 units below pre-industrial values. In Washington State alone, the seafood industry generates $1.7 billion for gross state product and employs 42,000 people (Washingt on State Blue Ribbon Panel 2012). Already, shellfish hatchery failures in Washington have caused an economic stir and caused some
hatcheries to relocate. Alaska’s commercial fish ing industry is valued at over $4 billion a year, and supports 90,000 jobs—recreational fishing and fishing tourism add even more value. Meanwhile, Alaska is ranked among the mo st vulnerable areas to acidification.

Tropical coral reefs provide ecosystem services , such as habitat and nursery functions for commercial and recreational fisheries and coastal pr otection. As reefs declin e in acidified waters, there will be an ecological shift to a new eco system state dominated by less commercially valuable species. In 2009, Brander et al. es timated the annual economic damage of ocean
acidification-induced coral reef loss to escal ate rapidly over time, reaching $870 billion by 2100 (Brander et al. 2009a). In 2014, Br ander et al. increased the an ticipated loss of ecosystem services from corals to be $1000 billion ( UNEP 2014). Shoreline protection offered by coral reefs and the services it provides by preventing lo ss of life, property damage and erosion are also reduced by CO 2 emissions.

Lane et al. (2014) modeled three major U.S. locat ions for shallow water reefs -- South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii – to project future r eef cover and the economic values generated by coral reefs for a greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenario that represents international implementation of policies to reduce global emissions (resulting in a CO 2 concentration of 427 ppm in 2100), compared to a business as usual gr eenhouse gas emissions scenario resulting in a

CO 2 concentration of 785 ppm in 2100. The study estimated that reducing emissions would result in an “avoided loss” in Hawaii of appr oximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to business as usual. Reducing emi ssions was projected to provide fewer economic benefits in Puerto Rico and South Florida, wh ere sea-surface temperatures are already close to29 bleaching thresholds and coral cover is project ed to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100 (Lane et al. 2014).

As discussed previously, the to xicity of harmful algal blooms increases under conditions of ocean acidification. These toxins not only poiso n marine mammals, but also cause paralytic shellfish poisoning in people. Scientists hypothesize that some of the increases red tides off the coast of Southern California may be related to ocean acidification, t hough this has yet to be confirmed. In turn, harmful algal blooms cost the United States approximately $82 million each year from impacts to fisheries, public healt h, management, and lost recreational opportunities (Hoagland and Scatasta 2006).

A recent study estimated that the damage our oceans will face from emissions-related problems will amount to $428 billion a year by 2050 and near ly $2 trillion per year by the century’s end (Noone et al. 2012).

Acidification impacts processes so funda mental to the overall structure and function of marine ecosystems that a ny significant changes could have farreaching consequences for the oceans of th e future and the millions of people that depend on its food and other resources for their livelihoods.

(Doney et al. 2009). There is also a significant co st to delaying action. According to a recent report by the Council of Economic Advisers, delayi ng the implementation of policies to mitigate climate change could significantly increase economic damages, in addition to worsening
environmental harm. 39

While there are still la rge unknowns on the biological conseque nces of ocean ac idification, the
science we have is clear: from shellfish to corals, and from pteropods to fish, our marine resources are threatened by the acid ification of our ocean waters.

b. Risk Reduction Methods

There are several ways to reduce risk from CO 2 . EPA should use a suite of tools to reduce emissions, sequester CO 2 , mitigate harms, and promote alternatives. Under TSCA EPA has authority to: 40

 prohibit or limit the amount of production or distribution of a substance in commerce;

 prohibit or limit the production or distributi on of a substance for a particular use;

 limit the volume or concentrati on of the chemical produced;

 prohibit or regulate the manner or method of commercial use;

 require warning labels and/or instru ctions on containers or products;

 require notification of the risk of injury to distributors and, to the extent possible,

consumers;

39 Executive Office of the Presid ent of the United States, Th e Cost of Delaying Action to Stem Climate Change at 1 (July 2014).

40 15 U.S.C. § 260.30  require record-keeping by producers;

 specify disposal methods; and

 require replacement or repurchase of products already distributed.

EPA also may impose any of these requirements in combination or for a specific geographical region. 41 Specifically, the agency must impose controls sufficient “to protect adequately against such risk using the least burdensome requirement.” 42

There is evidence that many industries could em ploy existing technology to achieve meaningful emissions reductions affordably. EPA’s own data demonstrate that lower pollution rates are readily achievable for many industrial sources of CO 2 . For example, the agency has identified dozens of “control measures and energy efficiency options that are curr ently available for pulp and paper mill processes,” ranging from technological upgrades to improved equipment
maintenance. 43 Similarly, EPA has compiled more than a decade of reports on “cost-effective” control strategies and other approaches available to reduce cement plant CO 2 emissions, “includ[ing], for example, energy efficiency meas ures, reductions in cement clinker content, and
raw materials substitution.” 44

Although cost-effective st rategies to reduce CO 2 emissions are available, existing controls have
not reduced CO 2 emissions sufficiently to protect agai nst environmental harm. For example, most natural gas power plants have never exceeded the agency’s re cently proposed emissions limit, thus indicating that existing and newly cons tructed facilities could easily satisfy a more stringent standard. 45 Because energy-related CO 2 pollution accounts for more than eighty percent of U.S. greenhouse gas producti on, readily achievable reductions in this sector would significantly benefit the environment. 46 Similarly, the pulp and paper industry ranks among the largest consumers of energy, 47 and emitted nearly 58 million metric tons of CO 2 equivalent gases
in 2004. 48 Moreover, market incentives and regulatory controls are effective in increasing the
rate of innovation for tec hnologies that can reduce CO 2 emissions.

If a chemical presenting an unreasonable risk to health and the envir onment has already been distributed, EPA may prescribe pr ocedures by which relevant manufacturers and purchasers must replace or repurchase that chemical. 49 In the present situation, we ur ge the agency to exercise its

41 Id.

42 15 U.S.C. § 2605(a).

43 See EPA, Available and Emerging Technologies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Pulp and Paper Industry at 11 (2010).

44 EPA, National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants From the Portland Cement Manufacturing Industry and Standards of Performance for Portland Cement Plants, 75 Fed. Reg. 54,970, 54,997 (Sep. 9, 2010).

45 Ctr. for Biological Diversity, Comments on Standards of Performance for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from New Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units (Pro posed Rule) Docket No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0495 at 13- 14 (May 9, 2014).

46 U.S. Dept. of State, U.S. Climate Action Report at 16 (2010).

47 See U.S. Energy Information Administration, First Use of Energy for All Purposes (Fuel and Nonfuel), 2010 (Mar. 2013), http://www.eia.gov/consumption/manufacturing/data/2010/#r1.

48 EPA, Available and Emerging Technologies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Pulp and Paper Industry at 7 (2010).

49 15 U.S.C. § 2605(a)(7)(C).31 authority to remediate existing harm by requiri ng that responsible parties mitigate past CO 2 emissions.

There are numerous approaches to mitigating and sequestering CO 2 emissions that EPA must evaluate. Effective land use and agricultural pract ices can significantly reduce carbon emissions and sequester CO 2 . Federal programs aimed at consumers can reduce CO 2 emissions. For example, EPA’s Energy Star pr ogram has prevented 1.8 billion t ons of greenhouse gas emissions by providing information that helps customers se lect energy efficient de vices. Sequestration of

CO 2 in products, infrastructure, and waste manage ment are among numerous methods that could be cost-effective to mitigate CO 2 pollution.

c. Social Costs of Carbon

In any analysis of the cost and benefits of reducing CO 2 pollution, the costs of failing to address the problem of global warming shoul d be included. Most efforts to quantify the social costs of
carbon underestimate the real-world costs of CO 2 pollution. Nevertheless , EPA may not ignore
these costs.

Global emissions must be less than 1000 Gt of CO 2 between 2000 and 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change, which scientists have recommen ded that this means maintaining temperature change below 2° C. 50 This means keeping atmospheric CO 2 to 450 ppm, a threshold below which experts also use for ocean acidi fication (Veron et al. 2009; Silverman et al. 2009; Interacademy Panel 2009; McNeil & Matear 2008; Sea et al. 2007). For example, cora l scientists predict that at 450 ppm, reef-building will be severely diminished or will cease altoge ther (Veron et al. 2009). But the global community has already us ed a substantial portion of this CO 2 budget, emitting 305
Gt of CO 2 between 2000 and 2008 alone. 51 As a result, the years between now and 2020 have
been dubbed the “critical decade.” 52 Because carbon emissions must peak soon and decline thereafter, the sooner emissions peak, the less se vere the subsequent a nnual reductions will need to be; 53 correspondingly, if emissions are not suffici ently curbed in this decade, avoiding catastrophic damages will require much more drastic, disruptive and costly measures and may no longer be possible at all. Noneth eless, if action is taken immedi ately, it is both technologically and economically feasible to reduce emissions by 2020 and la y the groundwork for future
emissions reductions. 54

Every year that the world dela ys its efforts to reach sustai nable levels of greenhouse gas emissions represents a lost opportunity of tr emendous economic significance. McKinsey & Company estimated in 2009 that for ever y year of delay, 1.8 Gt of potential CO 2 abatement is foregone. 55 This delay, and the accompanying Gts of lost CO 2 abatement, has a price tag, as the

50 Australia Department of Climate Cha nge and Energy Efficiency, The Critical Decade: Climate Science, Risks and Responses at 53 (May 2011), available at http://www.scribd.co m/doc/56043375/The-Critical-Decade-ClimateChange-Commision-Report

. 51 Id.

52 Id.

53 UNEP, The Emissions Gap Report at 14 (Nov. 2010), available at http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport/ ; for a discussion of economic implications of these facts, see infra.

54 Id. at 23.

55 McKinsey & Company, Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy: Version 2 of the Global Greenhouse Gas
Abatement Cost Curv e at 16 (2009), available at www.worldwildlife.org/climate/WWWFBinaryitem11334.pdf

.32 damage caused by CO 2 emissions accelerate while the cumu lative amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rises, both because of the increasingly dire damages wrought by rising temperatures and other greenhouse gas effects, and because of the delay factor itself. If governments delay mitigation in the present, th e emissions reduction cu rve in future years necessarily becomes much steeper, requiring much more drastic and costly emission reduction mechanisms with tremendous economy-wide disrup tions, just to “catch up” with the lost opportunities from prior years to reach a sustai nable emissions trajecto ry—or risk undergoing
unsustainable climatic extremes.

Economists have sought to quantify the costs of waiting to embark upon an emissions reduction path. In 2007, researchers used the DICE model 56 to estimate the cost of delaying mitigation for a given period of time and then switching to an optimal abatement trajectory. According to their findings, the global cost of ten y ears of delay, relative to starting on an optimal trajectory in the present, ranges from hundreds of bi llions to several trillion dollars. 57 For instance, this study
estimates that it would cost somewhere between $200 and $400 billion dollars to delay action for ten years and then embark upon a mitigation strategy that would result in stab ilization at 3 °C (a level now universally understood to far exceed th e dangerous). The cost of delaying mitigation soars into the trillions of dollars as the delay continues, until it ultimately becomes impossible to achieve a certain level of temper ature stabilization. According to this study, more than thirty years’ delay of changing the current course would make it impossible – no matter what the expense – to stabilize temp erature rises at 2° C above pre-industrial levels.

EPA and other federal agencies have been using the social cost of carbon to estimate the climate benefits of rulemakings since it was first deve loped by a dozen agencies (including USDA, CEQ and EPA) and published by the In teragency Working Group in 2010. 58 The social cost of carbon, usually expressed as a dollar-pe r-ton figure, provides an esti mate of the economic damages
associated with an increase in CO 2 emissions, conventionally one metric ton, in a given year. The dollar figure can also represent the value of damages avoided fo r emission reductions achieved by federal rulemakings. The social cost of car bon is designed to provide a comprehensive estimate of climate change damages, including, but not limited to, changes in net agricultural productivity, human health, and property damage s from increased flood risk. However, given current modeling and data limitations, even EPA ha s conceded that that the social cost of carbon protocol is likely a conservative estimate because it does not yet account for all important damages. 59 Nevertheless, the protocol is designed for use in regulatory processes like this one. In 2013 the Federal Interagency Working Group increased its estimates of the social cost of carbon, using the same 3% annual discount rate, by 50%. 60 The 2013 estimates are 50% higher for emissions in 2010, with greater perc entage increases in subsequent years. Yet, even these social

56 DICE stands for the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy model developed by William Nordhaus in 1990.

57 Keller, K. et al., The Regrets of Procrastination in Climate Policy, Environmenta l Research Letters (2007),

available at iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/2/2/024004/

. 58 EPA, The Social Cost of Carbon, http://www.epa.gov/climatechange /EPAactivities/economics/scc.html (last accessed June 28, 2015).

59 Id.

60 Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, United States Government, Technical Support Document: Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866 (Nov. 2013) at 3, available at http://www .whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/ assets/inforeg/technical-updatesocialcost-of-carbon-for-regulator-impact-analysis.pdf.33 cost of carbon figures significantly underestimat e the true social cost of carbon, possibly by several orders of magnitude.

Economists have noted that the social cost of carbon is far greater th an the $21 per ton of CO 2 assumed by interagency protocol in 2010 and greater than the 2013 revision. 61 There are several inadequacies that make the values too conservati ve. Foremost, the models fail to evaluate ocean acidification—to the contrary the mode ls consider the ocean a sink for CO 2 . The FUND model used in the Working Group’s analysis wholly excludes considerati on of climate-induced catastrophic events. But the Working Group wei ghs the values generate d by each of the three models equally, even though the FUND m odel’s values is significantly lower 62 than the others, and consequently pulls down the final value of the social cost of carbon. The potential for catastrophic climate events, and the increasing li kelihood that tipping points will be reached even sooner than anticipated, are incr easingly serious risks, however , and, despite the associated uncertainties, must be fully represented in any evaluation of the social cost of carbon. Instead, the Working Group employed a risk-neutral approac h, clearly inappropriate in light of the vast majority of scientific studies. Also, the models used fail to account fully or even partially for certain highly complex aspects of climate change , including the possibility of interrelations
between different sectors and accele rating damage feedback loops, non-CO 2 emissions, 63 and social and political instability. Moreover, the valuation techniques and discount rates used to reach these values are inherently problematic and fa il to represent the full value of all losses from climate change, in significant part because some cannot be reduced to monetary terms.

Other evaluations of the social cost of carbon attempt to account for these omitted factors. The Stern Review, in particular, r eaches a SCC of $85/ton of CO 2 (in 2000 dollars). 64 For comparison purposes with a Working Group value of $21 in 2005 dollars, this amount is equivalent to

61 F. Ackerman & E. Stanton, Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon (2010) (the social cost of carbon could be over $800 per ton of CO2 equivalent; F. Ackerman & E. Stanton, Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost of Carbon, in Economics, vol. 6 (Apr. 4, 2012) (reaching similar conclusions), available online at http://www.economics-ejo urnal.org/economics/journalarticles/2012-10 (last visited June 27, 2014); P. Epstein et al., Fu ll cost accounting for the life cycle of coal, Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. (2011) (estimating the social cost of coal at between $10 and $100 per ton of CO2 equivalent); L. Johnson & C. Hope, The social cost of carbon in U.S. regulator y impact analyses: an introdu ction and critique, J. Envtl. Stud. & Sci. (Sept. 9, 2012) (finding a social cost of a ton of CO2 emissions to be 2.6 to over 12 times larger than the Interagency Working Group’s central estimate of $21 per ton of CO2) available online athttp://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs13412-012-0087- 7 (last visited June 27, 2014) E. Stanton et al., Comments on the 2013 Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon, January 27, 2014.

62 Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Carbon, Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866, at 16-A-11, Fig. 16-A-4.2, available at http://www.rff.org/Publications/WPC/P ages/Estimating-the-Social-Cost-of-Carbon-for-Regulatory-ImpactAnalysis.aspx

. 63 For instance, the estimated so cial cost of methane and SF 6 , are, respectively, $105/tonne and $200,000/tonne. See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report 822, available at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and _data/ar4/syr/en/contents.html . For a critical analysis of the Working Group’s assumptions, see also Ackerman, F. and Stanton, E. A., The Social Cost of Carbon A Report for the Economics for Equity and the Environment Network (April 1, 2010), available at http://www.e3network.org/papers/So cialCostOfCarbon_SEI_20100401.pdf.

64 Nicholas Stern, Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change Part III: The Economics of Stabilisation at

287 (2006), available at http://webarchive.nationalarc hives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_ec onomics_climate_change/s tern_review_report.cfm

.34 $96.25/ton in 2005. The Stern Review uses the PAGE model, which explicitly models for the risk of catastrophic climate change. 65 In contrast with the Worki ng Group, the Stern Review uses a mean temperature increase of 3.9 °C for its ba seline scenario (consistent with the Third IPCC Report) and a 4.3 °C increase for its higher climat e scenario. The resultin g higher value of the social cost of carbon is thus very likely to be a closer approximation of the real cost of CO 2

.

Meanwhile, the costs of reducing CO 2 emissions are well worth taking prompt action. The
“central estimates of the annual costs of ach ieving stabilisation between 500 and 550ppm CO 2 are around 1% of global GDP, if we start to take strong action now. [...] It w ould already be very difficult and costly to aim to stabilise at 450ppm CO 2 e. If we delay, the oppor tunity to stabilise at 500-550ppm CO 2 e may slip away.”'(Stern 2006). Like wise, the benefits of addressing CO 2 for
ocean acidification also have th e ancillary effect of slowing gl obal warming and preventing costs associated with climate change.

The recently proposed rule to reducing power plant CO 2 emissions calculates both costs and benefits—notably the benefits far exceed the co sts. The recently proposed rules for reducing power plant carbon emissions, calcul ates both costs and benefits for a more modest reduction. EPA projects that the annual compliance cost will be $4.3 to $5.5 billion (in 2011 dollars, depending on discount rate) in 2020 and $5.5 billion (for a 5% discount rate) in 2030. 66 The
total combined climate benefits and health co-benefits are estimat ed to be $15.6 to $88 billion in 2020 and $32.3 to $151 billion in 2030 (depending on discount rate and the options chosen). 67
The insurance industry also is well aware of the potential costs of failing to address CO2 emissions and its associated effects, includi ng: “[h]urricanes and other flooding events ... [h]ealth issues associated with heat waves... more airborne allergens, rising temperatures, greater humidity, more wildfires, and more dus t and particulate pollu tion may considerably exacerbate upper respiratory disease (rhini tis, conjunctivitis, sinusitis, asthma) and
cardiovascular disease.” 68 A European insurance company estimates losses from extreme climate change events of 37% with in a decade, over $1 trillion under bad circumstances. 69 The increasing frequency and severity of storms in th e U.S. has caused damages to increase 60-fold
from 1950s to the 1990s. 70

Petitioners ask that action to mitigate ocean acid ification under TSCA be initiated, either through TSCA section 6 (e.g., requiring “repurchasing” relief using sequestrati on, emission reductions, etc.), or through section 4 in or der to determine the need for ac tion under section 6 and the most effective mitigation strategies. In any case, pe titioners suggest that costs be apportioned among

65 According to the Working Group itself, DICE “offers the be st insight into the SCC if the world were to experience catastrophic climate change.” See Working Group, supra note 62, at 16-A-35.

66 EPA, Regulatory Impact Analysis Technical Document EPA-452/R-14-002 (June 2014).

67 Id.

68 National Association of Insurance Commissioners, The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Insurance Regulation at 10 (2008).

69 See e.g. Allianz, Climate Change and the Financial Sector: An Action Plan; Evan Mills, Responding to Climate Change: The Insurance I ndustry Perspective.

70 Mills, E. Insurance in a Climate of Change, Science 308: 1040 (2005).35 CO 2 emission contributors according to the cumulative CO 2 emission inventory information EPA
has collected. 71

***

In summary, the weight of the scientific inform ation on ocean acidification is sufficient to make
a determination that CO 2 poses an unreasonable risk, to the ex tent that EPA declines to find the data adequate, then EPA must develop a test ru le under TSCA section 4 as described below.

C. Alternatively, EPA Must Require Test ing to Develop Adequate Data

EPA must make a determination as to whether adequate data exist to evaluate the environmental
and health effects of CO 2 . There is well-established scientific information on the risk of CO 2 on the environment, but if EPA determines that th e data are insufficient then it must develop a testing rule.

In enacting TSCA, Congress declar ed that “adequate data should be developed with respect to
the effect of chemical substances and mixtures on health and the environment and that the development of such data should be the respons ibility of those who ma nufacture and those who process such chemical substances and mixtures.” 72 Accordingly, section 4 directs EPA to require additional testing upon determining that “the manufacture, distribution in commerce, processing, use, or disposal of chemical subs tance or mixture ... may present an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment,” or if the chemical is produced in substantial quantities and there is a potential for a substantia l quality to be released into the environment. 73

1. CO 2 May Present an Unreasonable Risk

As described in depth in this petition, CO 2 may present an unreasonable risk to the environment. EPA interprets this to mean that there is a “subst antial (i.e., more than theo retical) probability" of
unreasonable risk to the environment or health. 74 The information in this petition meets the threshold for a testing rule and establishes a substantial probability that CO 2 poses an unreasonable risk to the environment, but EPA need not even make such a determination because

CO 2 is produced in such large volumes that it clearly meets the crit erion of exposure of substantial quantities being released into the environment.

2. Substantial Quantities of CO 2 Are Released into the Environment

It is undeniable that s ubstantial qualities of CO 2 are released into the environment. EPA established a threshold value of one million pounds fo r a release of a chemical to be substantial. TSCA Section 4(a)(1)(B ) Final Statement of Policy; Cr iteria for Evaluating Substantial

71 This could be structured similar to the sponsorship format used in TSCA ʼ s High Production Volume (HPV) Program.

72 15 U.S.C. § 2601(b)(1).

73 15 U.S.C. § 2603 (a)(1)(A), (B)(i).

74 Chemical Mfrs. Ass'n v. EPA , 859 F.2d 977, 988 (D.C. Cir. 1988).36 Production, Substantial Release, and Subst antial or Significant Human Exposure , 58 Fed. Reg. 28736, 28746 (May 14, 1993). According to the IPCC:

From 1750 to 2011, CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have released 375 [345 to 405] GtC to the atmosphere, while deforestation and other land use change are estimated to ha ve released 180 [100 to 260] GtC. This results in cumulative anthropogenic em issions of 555 [470 to 640] GtC.

(IPCC 2013, Summary for Policymakers).

In 2012, a total of 9.7 gigatonnes of CO 2 were released into the atmosphere from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (Global Carbon Pr oject 2013). These emi ssions are expected to increase to 9.9 gigatonnes in 2013 ( Id. ). The United States contributed 14% of CO 2 emissions to the atmosphere ( Id. ). Models estimate that between 2003 and 2012, the oceans absorbed 27%
of CO 2 from the atmosphere ( Id. ). Over the next millennium, the oceans will absorb 90% of anthropogenic CO 2 (Kleypas et al. 2006).

Therefore, the threshold of substantial release is exceeded by more than a million times over.

3. Recommendations for Testing

EPA should consider a test rule to fill the inform ation gaps needed to make a determination of
whether CO 2 presents an unreasonable risk of injury to the environment. Some recommendations
for consideration include:

 Testing CO 2 reduction strategies. For example, research and development for emissions reduction strategi es that include alternative practic es, conservation, alternative fuels. Testing CO 2 sequestration and capture approaches, and assessing
attainable CO 2 emissions reductions for i ndustries with significant CO 2 emissions.

 Conducting a vulnerability assessment for mari ne and coastal species and ecosystems. Determining atmospheric CO 2 levels necessary to conserve marine ecosystems from dangerous ocean acidification. Emissions scenarios are important for informing policy approaches to acidification.

 Forecasting species’ responses to ocean acidi fication using modeling tools to predict range shifts, demographic and population tr ends, and physiological responses across taxonomic groups using a range of climat e models, emissions scenarios, and management timelines (25, 50, 100 years). Id entify wildlife species and ecosystems imperiled by ocean acidification by eval uating range shift models and population viability models run under future ocean acidification levels. Recommend conservation actions, including protected stat us, for species that are most at risk. Protect species across their range since populations are li kely to have different adaptations to local oceanic conditions.

 Determining the economic values of ecosystems that are at risk from ocean acidification and the costs of reducing CO 2 emissions to preserve those ecosystems.37 Additionally, EPA can use guidanc e on research needs based on ex isting research plans. There are a number of sources recommending research and data needs (National Research Council 2013; Washington State Blue Ribbon Panel 2012; National Resear ch Council 2010).

According to TSCA, developing the data is “the responsibility of those who manufacture and those who process such chemical substances and mixtures.” 75 For example, responsibility could be apportioned based on the hi storical carbon emissions from the EPA Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory together with current emissions. Typi cally for test rules with multiple responsible parties consortiums ar e set up to comply. 76 Here, for example, utilities, cement and lime manufacturers, waste incinerators , and other large producers of CO 2 should be responsible for developing unbiased, in dependent data.

While this may seem like a complicated undert aking, EPA has successfully completed more complex test rules. For example, from 1998 through the present, the agency used three sets of regulatory test rules under TSCA to collect chemical data for almost 3,000 high production volume (HPV) chemicals, including over 10,000 indivi dual studies with data from domestic and foreign producers. 77

EPA must develop test rules under TSCA section 4 for research and data development focused on information essential for making a definitiv e TSCA section 6 finding. These would include risk, benefit and cost information.

D. Inadequacy of Existing CO 2 Reduction Strategies

Petitioners are aware that the Agency has re cently planned and initiated several emission
reduction actions aimed at slowi ng the rate at which carbon emi ssions are increasing. However, these actions by themselves, while laudabl e, will not stabil ize atmospheric CO 2 at a level which will prevent widespread harm from ocean acidification.

1. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Increasing Substantially

The atmospheric concentration of CO 2 reached 400 parts per million (ppm) for the first time in human history in May, 2013, compared to the pre- industrial concentration of ~280 ppm (Scripps Institution of Oceanogr aphy 2013). The current CO 2 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 800,000 years and likely not during the pa st 15 to 20 million years (Denman et al. 2007; Tripati et al. 2009). Atmospheric CO 2 emissions have risen partic ularly rapidly since the 2000s (Raupach et al. 2007; Friedlingstein et al. 2010). The global fossil fuel CO 2 emissions growth rate was 1.0% per year in the 1990s compared w ith 3.1% per year since 2000, and this growth rate has largely tracked or exceeded the most fo ssil-fuel-intensive emissions scenarios projected by the IPCC (A1FI and RCP 8.5) since 2000 (Raup ach et al. 2007, Peters et al. 2012). The CO 2 emissions growth rate fell slightly in 2009 due largely to the global financial and economic

75 15 U.S.C. § 2601

76 15 U.S.C. § 2602 (b)(3)(A)

77 EPA, High Production Volume (HPV) Challenge; http://www.epa.gov/chemrtk/index.htm (last accessed June 28, 2015).38 crisis; however, the decrease was less than half of what was expected and was short-lived (Fiedlingstein et al. 2010). In 2014 and 2015, global CO 2 concentrations exceeded 400ppm. 78

2. U.S. Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Insufficient

EPA has taken some initial steps toward curb ing greenhouse pollution under the Act. In 2009, the agency issued a formal finding that greenhous e pollution endangers pub lic health and welfare and moved to limit emissions from passenger car s and trucks. The EPA also acknowledged that major new or modified “stationary” sources of greenhouse pollution, like power plants and factories, must obtain permits and control th eir emissions before beginning construction. However, it narrowed the scope of this requirement considerably under its so-cal led “tailoring rule,” which initially limits the permitting program to only a few hundred very large sources of greenhouse gases, letting a huge number of sma ller — but still significant — sources off the
hook.

While existing domestic laws including the Clean Air Act, Energy Policy and Conservation Act, Clean Water Act, Endangered Species Act and ot hers provide authority to executive branch agencies to require greenhouse gas emissions reduc tions from virtually all major sources in the United States, these agencies are either failing to implement or only partially implementing these laws for greenhouse gases. The landmark 2014 pact with China to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is significant, but there is little to ensure it is enforc ed and implemented. According to the plan, United States will reduce CO 2 emissions 26 to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025.

Proposed power plant rules also fail to do enough to cut CO 2 pollution. Using the Clean Air Act, the president aims to reduce existing power plant emissions 30 percent below 2005 levels (or about 7.7 percent below 1990 levels , the base year for the inte rnational climate treaty) by 2030.
But international scientists warned years ago that developed countri es like the United States must reduce their emissions 25 percent to 40 percen t below 1990 levels by 2020 to avoid tipping the
scales further toward a clim ate catastrophe. Likewise, the re cently announced plans to limit power plant emissions (Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units) focuses on em ission reduction. Power plants are responsible for about a third of our carbon emissions, and the rule is designed to reduce those emissions by almost a third by 2030. This would result in a 10% decreas e in 15 years. Stabilizing atmospheric concentration to prevent further acidification of the oceans would require about an 80% decrease in all emissions. Clearly this is a good first step, but by itself inad equate to address acidification.

EPA has issued a rulemaking regulating greenhous e gas emissions from automobiles that will reduce greenhouse emissions emitted per vehicle m ile traveled by passenger vehicles in the future. But because the improvements are modest a nd more vehicles are projected to drive more miles in the future, the rule will not reduce emissi ons from this sector overall but will only slow
the rate of increase. 79 Meanwhile, even the government con cedes that “these reductions in emissions are not sufficient by themselves to reduce total HD vehicle emissions below their 2005

78 NOAA, Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

79 EPA, Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards; Final Rule, 75 Fed. Reg. 25324 (May 7, 2010).39 levels by 2020.” 80 This means that the vehicle rule is far from achieving emissions goals agreed to by the U.S. in the Copenhagen Accord, which aim to keep global warming below 2  ̊ C.

The EPA has also to date issued only a si ngle proposed rule under the new source pollution standard program for stationary sources of pollu tion, for electric generating units (power plants). While there is enormous potential to reduce em issions through this pr ogram overall and through the power plants rule in particul ar, the EPA has instead proposed a weak and flawed rule that it
admits will not reduce emissions from these s ources between now and 2020 compared to what would be expected without the rule. 81 Indeed, in the rulemaking the EPA conceded that new power plant rule on greenhouse gas emissions “will no t have direct impact on U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases under expected economic conditions.” 82

While full implementation of our flagship enviro nmental laws, particularly the Clean Air Act, would provide an effective and comprehensiv e greenhouse gas reduction strategy, due to their non-implementation, existing domestic regulatory mechanisms must be considered inadequate to protect marine species from climate change and ocean acidification.

3. International Measures to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Inadequate

International initiatives are also currently inadeq uate to effectively address climate change. The
United Nations Framework Convention on Clim ate Change, negotiated in 1992 at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, provides the forum for the in ternational negotiations . In the Framework Convention, signed and ratified by the United St ates, the world agreed to take the actions necessary to avoid dangerous climate change. Par ties to the Convention also agreed as a matter of fairness that the world’s rich, developed c ountries, having caused the vast majority of emissions responsible for the problem, would take the lead in solving it. It was not until the 1997 meeting in Kyoto, Japan, that the first conc rete, legally binding agreement for reducing emissions was signed: the Kyoto Protocol. The Prot ocol requires the world’ s richest countries to reduce emissions an average of 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012, while developing nations also take steps to reduce emissions without bei ng subject to binding emissions targets as they
continue to raise their standard of living. The United States has been a major barrier to progress in the international negotiations. After the Cl inton administration extr acted many concessions from the rest of the world in exchange for th e United States signing on in Kyoto, the Senate rejected the equity principles behind the Conve ntion, saying the United States should not agree
to reduce its own emissions unless all other count ries — regardless of th eir responsibility or ability — were similarly bound. Citing the same ex cuses, President George W. Bush repudiated the Kyoto Protocol entirely. Thus the United States is the only i ndustrialized country in the world that has yet to ratify the K yoto Protocol. The United States negotiating team under both the George W. Bush and the Obama administrations has pursued two primary objectives in the international talks: to refuse any legally bind ing emissions reduction commitments until all other

80 NHTSA, Medium- and Heavy-Duty Fuel Efficiency Improvement Prog ram – Final Environmental Impact Statement (June 2011).

81 EPA, Standards of Performance for Greenhouse Gas Em issions for New Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units, 77 Fed. Reg. 22392, 22430-33 (April 13, 2012).

82 Id. at 22401.40 countries— but particularly Chin a and India — do so, and to push back the date for a new agreement. Not surprisingly, the United States ha d failed to meet its (never ratified) Kyoto pledge to reduce emissions to 7.2% below 1990 leve ls by 2012; to the contrary, U.S. emissions have increased by 10.5% since 1990 (EPA 2012).

Moreover, the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitme nt period only sets ta rgets for action through 2012, and there is still no binding internationa l agreement governing greenhouse gas emissions in the years beyond 2012. While the 2009 U.N. C limate Change Conference in Copenhagen

called on countries to hold the incr ease in global temperature below 2  C (an inadequate target for avoiding dangerous climate change), the non-bi nding “Copenhagen Accord” that emerged from the conference, and the subsequent “Cancún Accords” of 2010 and “Durban Platform” of 2011 failed to enact binding re gulations that limit emis sions to reach this goal. 83 Even if countries were to meet their Copenhagen and Cancún pledge s, analyses have found that collective national pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions are inad equate to achieve the 2°C target, and instead suggest emission scenarios leading to 2.5  C to 5  C warming (Rogelj et al. 2010; UNEP 2011; UNEP 2010). As of July 2013, many governments were not implementing the policies needed to meet their inadequate 2020 emission reduction pl edges, making it more difficult to keep global temperature rise to 2  C and likely leading to a temp erature rise of at least 3.5  C (USGCRP 2013). As noted in the NMFS Management Report, th e U.S. has yet to issue regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with its pledge under the Copenhagen Accord (NMFS 2012).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, this petition requires EP A to make a determination whether CO 2 poses an unreasonable risk to the environment therefore re quiring regulation under sect ion 6 of TSCA. In
an extensive review of the literature on the im pact of ocean acidification on marine fauna and
ecosystem processes, the authors found that while additional research is called for, sufficient information exists to state with certainty that deleterious impacts on some marine species are unavoidable, and that substantial alteration of marine ecosystems is likely over the next century. (Fabry et al. 2008). If, nonetheless, EPA determines that the information is insufficient to make such a finding it must develop testing rules pursuant to TSCA section 4.

83 The non-legally binding Copenhagen Accord of 2009 and Cancún Accords of 2010 recognize the objective of limiting warming to 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures, but do not enact binding regulations to achieve this goal (http://cancun.unfccc.int/cancu n-agreements/main-objectiv es-of-the-agreements/#c33; unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/11a 01.pdf). According to the Durban Platform, develope d and developing nations agreed to a process to develop a “new protocol, another legal instrument, or agreed outcome with legal force that will be applicable to all Parties to the UN climate c onvention”; this legal instrument must be developed as of
2015 and will not take effect until 2020 ( unfccc.int/resource/docs/2 011/cop17/eng/l10.pdf).41 BIBLIOGRAPHY

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