College Persistence

on the Rise?

Changes in 5-Year Degree

Completion and Postsecondary

Persistence Rates Between

1994 and 2000

Postsecondary Education

Descriptive Analysis Reports

U.S. Department of Education

Institute of Education Sciences

NCES 2005–156
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
U.S. Department of Education 

Institute of Education Sciences 

NCES 2005–156 

College Persistence 

on the Rise? 

Changes in 5-Year Degree 

Completion and 

Postsecondary Persistence 

Rates Between 1994 and 2000 

Postsecondary Education 

Descriptive Analysis Reports 

November 2004 

Laura Horn 

Rachael Berger 

MPR Associates, Inc. 

C. Dennis Carroll 

Project Officer 

National Center for 

Education Statistics 
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

Rod Paige 

Secretary 

INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION SCIENCES

Grover J. Whitehurst 

Director 

NATIONAL CENTER FOR EDUCATION STATISTICS

Robert Lerner 

Commissioner 

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and 

reporting data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate 

to collect, collate, analyze, and report full and complete statistics on the condition of education in the United 

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NCES activities are designed to address high priority education data needs; provide consistent, reliable, 

complete, and accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high quality 

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November 2004 

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Suggested Citation 

Horn, L., and Berger, R. (2004). College Persistence on the Rise? Changes in 5-Year Degree Completion and 

Postsecondary Persistence Rates Between 1994 and 2000 (NCES 2005–156). U.S. Department of Education, 

National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 

For ordering information on this report, write: 

U.S. Department of Education 

ED Pubs 

P.O. Box 1398 

Jessup, MD 20794-1398 

or call toll free 1-877-4ED-PUBS 

Content Contact: 

Aurora D’Amico 

(202) 502-7334 

Aurora.D’Amico@ed.gov
iii 

Executive Summary 

Using two longitudinal surveys of beginning 

postsecondary students (i.e., first-time freshmen),1

this study examines whether students who 

enrolled in the beginning of the 1990s were more 

or less likely than those who enrolled in the mid1990s to complete postsecondary education. 

Specifically, the analysis compares the degree 

completion and persistence rates among two 

cohorts—students who first enrolled in 

postsecondary education in academic year 1989–

90 and their counterparts who first enrolled in 

1995–96. The study focuses on the rates at which 

students in each cohort completed a degree within 

5 years or were still enrolled at the end of 5 years; 

it also examines changes in the students’ 

demographic profile and other population 

characteristics. The findings are based on data 

from the 1990/94 and 1996/01 Beginning 

Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Studies 

(BPS:90/94 and BPS:96/01). Each of these studies 

surveys a sample of students who enrolled in 

postsecondary education for the first time in a 

specific academic year. The earlier cohort of 

beginning postsecondary students consisted of 

students who first began their postsecondary 

education in 1989–90 (BPS:90/94) and were 

interviewed again in 1992 and 1994. The more 

recent cohort followed students who began in 

1995–96 (BPS:96/01) and were interviewed 

subsequently in 1998 and 2001.2 The later survey 

actually covers a 6-year period, but in order to 

 

1 The surveys included students in the 50 states, the District 

of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. 

2 Overall weighted response rates for these two studies are 91 

and 86 percent, respectively (see appendix B for more 

information). 

make comparisons with BPS:90/94, which ended 

after 5 years, measures of 5-year degree 

completion and persistence are analyzed. It is 

important to note that the findings from this 

analysis are entirely descriptive in nature and, 

while associations are noted, they should not be 

interpreted as causal inferences.3

Historical research based on data collected by 

the U.S. Department of Education and the U.S. 

Census Bureau has shown that college completion 

rates have changed little since the early 1970s 

(Barton 2002; Adelman 2004), with completion 

rates of 66–67 percent for 1972, 1982, and 1992 

high school graduates who ever enrolled at a 4-

year college (figure 1). In the current study, no 

overall change in the 5-year bachelor’s degree 

completion rate was detected. However, despite 

the relatively short period of 6 years between the 

two surveys, measurable changes in 5-year 

persistence rates were evident. Students in the 

more recent (1995–96) cohort were more likely to 

be enrolled 5 years after they began their 

postsecondary studies. As a result, the combined 

rate of degree completion and 5-year persistence 

for students who began their undergraduate 

education in a 4-year institution rose from 76 to 

80 percent (table 5-A). 

Changes in Student Populations 

Between 1989 and 1995, total undergraduate 

fall enrollment in institutions of higher education 

increased from 11.7 million to 12.2 million (U.S. 

 

3 All differences noted in the report are statistically 

significant at the 0.05 level. 
Executive Summary

iv 

Department of Education 2000, table 190). In 

addition to the increase in the total undergraduate 

population, the racial/ethnic composition and 

income level of students just beginning their 

postsecondary education changed over the 6-year 

period. In particular, as shown in table A, Black 

and Hispanic students made up larger proportions 

of beginning postsecondary students over the 

study period, while the proportion of White 

students declined over time. Although no overall 

change in the gender distribution was detected, 

when the data were broken out by the type of 

institution students first attended, among students 

enrolled in private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions, it appears that the percentage who 

were women increased from 51 percent in 1989–

90 to 57 percent in 1995–96; however, the 

difference is not statistically significant (table 1). 

Coinciding with the rise in Black and Hispanic 

student enrollment in the 6-year period between 

cohorts was an increase in the proportion of lowincome students. The percentage of low-income 

students increased from 13 to 16 percent overall 

for dependent students.4 This increase held for 

dependent students who began in public 4-year 

institutions (from 10 to 15 percent) and private 

for-profit institutions (from 21 to 35 percent) 

(table 1). 

The age distribution of beginning students 

changed to some degree. As of December 31 in 

the year they enrolled, the percentage of 19-yearolds and students in their 20s increased, while the 

proportion of 18-year-olds declined. 

 

4 In the analysis comparing income levels between the BPS 

cohorts, “low income” is defined as family incomes that did 

not exceed 125 percent of established poverty levels. Poverty 

levels are calculated for families of different sizes. Dependent 

students are typically those under the age of 24 and are 

reported as dependents by their parents on financial aid 

applications. Dependent income levels are based on parents’ 

income the year before students enrolled. See appendix A for 

more details. 

Table A.—Percentage distributions of beginning

Table A.—postsecondary student characteristics, by

Table A.—year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

1989–90 1995–96 

 Total 100.0 100.0 

Gender 

 Male 46.0 45.2 

 Female 54.0 54.8 

Race/ethnicity1

 American Indian 0.7 0.8 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 4.0 4.6 

 Black 8.8 11.9*

 White 78.8 70.6*

 Hispanic2 7.6 12.2*

Income relative to poverty level3

 Dependent students

 Below 125 percent 12.6 16.2*

 125–449 percent 58.9 56.0 

 450 percent or higher 28.5 27.8 

 Independent students

 Below 125 percent 38.4 47.1*

 125–449 percent 56.0 46.4*

 450 percent or higher 5.7 6.5 

Age as of 12/31 in year of enrollment

 18 years or younger 55.2 45.3*

 19 years 17.0 21.9*

 20–29 years 18.1 21.1*

 30 years or older 9.7 11.8 

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly 

different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05).

1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African 

American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic 

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless 

specified.

2

It should be noted that 14 percent of Hispanic students in the later 

BPS survey (BPS:96/01) were from Puerto Rican institutions, while 

in the earlier survey, students from Puerto Rico accounted for 3 

percent of Hispanic students. When students from Puerto Rico are 

removed, the total percentages of Hispanic students are 7.4 and 10.8, 

respectively, for the two cohorts (BPS:90/94 and BPS:96/01).

3

Describes income as a percentage of the established poverty threshold for a given family size (see appendix A for detailed definition). 

For dependent students, calculation is based on parents’ income. 

For independent students, calculation is based on their own income.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless 

otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students first 

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for 

Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning 

Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).
Executive Summary 

v 

As the demographic profile of beginning 

students changed, so did the level of education 

achieved by their parents. Students in the later 

cohort were more likely to have at least one parent 

who held a bachelor’s degree or higher. Such 

students are typically more successful in 

completing college degrees than their counterparts 

whose parents never attended postsecondary 

education (Nuñez and Cuccaro-Alamin 1998). The 

change in parents’ education levels was 

particularly evident among students who began in 

4-year institutions, among whom the percentage 

with parents who held bachelor’s degrees or 

higher increased from 44 to 50 percent for those 

who started in public institutions and from 53 to 

60 percent for those who started in private not-forprofit institutions (figure A and table 2). 

 

 

Figure A.—Percentage distribution of the highest level of education completed by students’ parents among beginning

Figure A.—postsecondary students who first enrolled in 4-year institutions: 1989–90 and 1995–96

*Difference between 1989–90 and 1995–96 is statistically significant (p<0.05).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Public 4-year

30 30 27

44

50*

20

0

25

50

75

100

High school diploma or less Some postsecondary education Bachelor’s degree or higher

Percent

Private not-for-profit 4-year

25 25 22

53

16

60*

0

25

50

75

100

High school diploma or less Some postsecondary education Bachelor’s degree or higher

Percent

1989–90 1995–96
Executive Summary

vi 

There was some indication that students’ 

academic preparation may have changed over 

time, primarily for students who began in public 

2-year colleges. Among these students, the 

percentage who reported taking remedial 

mathematics courses in their first year of 

enrollment increased from 11 to 17 percent (table 

2). About 1 in 10 students who began in public 2-

year colleges reported taking remedial reading 

courses in both cohorts. 

Changes in Student Borrowing 

Over the 6-year period between cohorts, rising 

tuition and changes in federal loan regulations 

were associated with changes in the way in which 

beginning students financed their postsecondary 

education. Between 1989–90 and 1995–96, tuition 

at postsecondary institutions increased 20 to 40 

percent, depending on the institution type (The 

College Board 1998). Financial aid also increased 

over this period, but loans made up a greater 

portion of aid in 1995–96 (The College Board 

2000). Changes in federal loan regulations 

expanded students’ eligibility for both 

unsubsidized and subsidized loans (Berkner 

2000). Consistent with these changes, the 

percentage of students who borrowed to help pay 

for their postsecondary education increased. 

During the course of their enrollment, nearly onehalf of students who began their postsecondary 

education in 1995–96 took out student loans to 

help pay for their education, compared with about 

one-third of their counterparts who first enrolled 6 

years earlier (table 4). Thus, beginning 

postsecondary students who enrolled in 1995–96 

were more likely to accrue loan debt over the 

course of their studies than their counterparts who 

enrolled in 1989–90. 

Changes in Degree Completion and 

5-Year Persistence 

Table B summarizes the educational outcomes 

of students in the two cohorts in terms of their 5-

year degree completion and persistence rates. The 

first column displays the percentage of students 

who completed any degree in 5 years (the sum of 

columns 2, 3, and 4). Columns 2, 3, and 4 show 

the rate at which students completed each type of 

degree (bachelor’s degree, associate’s degree, and 

vocational certificate), while columns 5 and 6 

display the percentage of students who had not 

earned a degree, but were still enrolled in either a 

4-year institution or a subbaccalaureate institution. 

Column 7 shows the percentage of students who 

were not enrolled after 5 years and had not earned 

a degree. It is possible that these students resumed 

their postsecondary education at a later date (i.e., 

stopped out), but within the 5-year time frame of 

each survey, they had not earned a degree and 

were not enrolled. The last column of the table 

displays the combined 5-year degree completion 

and persistence rate (the sum of columns 1, 5, and 

6), which, in other words, is the percentage of 

students who had completed a degree or were still 

enrolled 5 years after they began their 

postsecondary education. Where differences 

between the two student populations are 

statistically significant (p<.05), an asterisk 

appears next to the number for the more recent 

(1995–96) cohort. 

The results indicate an increase in the 

percentage of students who had not yet completed 

a degree, but were still enrolled in a 4-year 

institution 5 years after first enrolling. These are 

students who are taking longer than 5 years in 

their efforts to complete a bachelor’s degree. This 

finding held across all institution types except 

those in the for-profit sector. Among all students 
Executive Summary 

vii 

who started in 1989–90, 8 percent were still 

enrolled in a 4-year institution, while among those 

who began 6 years later, 12 percent were still 

enrolled. The increase in enrollment after 5 years 

was accompanied by an overall decline in degree 

completion from 50 to 47 percent. However, for 

both cohorts, bachelor’s degree completion 

remained at about one-quarter among all 

beginning students and at about 53 percent among 

students who began in 4-year institutions. 

Changes in persistence and completion rates 

varied across the institution types that students 

first attended. For example, among students who 

began in public 4-year colleges or universities, the 

likelihood of still being enrolled in a 4-year 

institution increased (from 16 to 21 percent). 

Commensurate with this, the combined degree 

completion and 5-year persistence rate went up as 

well (from 73 to 78 percent).5 This finding implies 

that given more time, the rate of bachelor’s degree 

 

5 The combined rate of degree completion and persistence 

includes the small percentage of students enrolled in a lessthan-4-year institution. For students who started in a 4-year 

college, being enrolled in a less-than-4-year institution would 

not be an indication of persisting toward a bachelor’s degree. 

Table B.—Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years

Table B.—after they began postsecondary education, by type of first institution and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total 

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

 Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

 completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

 Total1

 1989–90 49.9 25.8 11.2 13.0 8.1 5.2 36.8 63.2 

 1995–962 46.6* 25.1 9.9 11.7 11.6* 6.6 35.2 64.9 

Type of first institution

 All 4-year

 1989–90 60.3 53.3 4.2 2.9 13.3 1.9 24.4 75.6 

 1995–96 59.3 53.4 3.7 2.3 17.2* 3.2* 20.4* 79.6*

 Public 4-year

 1989–90 54.8 46.9 4.7 3.2 16.1 2.3 26.8 73.2 

 1995–96 53.3 46.6 4.1 2.6 20.9* 3.7* 22.1* 77.9*

 Private not-for-profit 4-year

 1989–90 71.9 66.6 3.0 2.3 7.4 1.2 19.6 80.4 

 1995–96 69.8 65.3 2.9 1.6 10.7* 2.2* 17.3 82.7 

 Public 2-year

 1989–90 36.7 6.3 17.5 12.9 5.1 9.6 48.6 51.4 

 1995–96 32.0 6.9 15.9 9.3* 9.7* 10.5 47.8 52.2 

 Private for-profit

 1989–90 59.7 1.6 11.1 46.9 0.7 1.1 38.6 61.4 

 1995–96 58.6 1.4 8.2 49.1 1.6 3.2* 36.6 63.4 

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05).

1

Total also includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-2-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions.

2

The 6-year completion and persistence rates for the 1995–96 cohort are presented in table B-1.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

No degree, 5-year persistence
Executive Summary

viii 

completion in public 4-year institutions may 

increase. In private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions, on the other hand, a change in the 

combined completion and persistence rate could 

not be detected even though the likelihood of still 

being enrolled in a 4-year institution increased 

measurably (from 7 to 11 percent). 

Like students who first enrolled in the 4-year 

sector, those who started in public 2-year colleges 

increased their likelihood of being enrolled in a 4-

year institution at the end of 5 years (from 5 to 10 

percent). At the same time, comparisons between 

the two cohorts revealed no measurable change in 

either transfer rates from public 2-year colleges 

(figure 4) or bachelor’s degree completion of 

transfer students (table 12). Therefore, the fact 

that a greater percentage of transfer students are 

enrolled in a 4-year institution after 5 years 

suggests that public 2-year college students in the 

later cohort may have been more persistent in 

pursuing a bachelor’s degree. At the same time, 

however, the rate at which students in public 2-

year colleges completed vocational certificates 

declined over the 6 years between cohorts, from 

13 percent to 9 percent. 

Changes by Gender, Race/Ethnicity, and 

Income 

The analysis detected some variations in 

postsecondary completion and persistence 

measures by demographic characteristics; 

however, most of these changes were observed 

among students in specific institution types rather 

than among all students. In fact, the main finding 

overall—the increase in the percentage of students 

still enrolled in a 4-year institution—held for both 

men and women, for White students, and across 

all income levels (table 6). 

Figure B illustrates changes by demographic 

characteristics for students who began in 4-year 

institutions. Differences in the combined 5-year 

degree completion and persistence rates were 

found primarily for those in public 4-year 

institutions where males, Whites, and low-income 

students experienced increases over time, while 

changes were not detected for women, other 

racial/ethnic groups, or higher income levels 

(table 7). Despite their financial disadvantage, the 

trends within income levels indicate that lowincome students who first enrolled in public 4-

year colleges improved their combined persistence 

and degree completion rate (figure C). Apparent 

increases for middle- and high-income students in 

the same sector were not statistically significant. 

In contrast to public 4-year institutions, among 

students who started in private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions, high-income students improved 

their combined degree completion and persistence 

rate, while no change was detected for lower 

income students or for any other group of students 

(table 8). 

Conclusions 

On the whole, when comparing students who 

began their postsecondary education in 1989–90 

with those who began 6 years later, no change was 

detected in the rate at which students earned a 

bachelor’s degree within 5 years. However, for 

those who had not completed a degree, a higher 

percentage of students in the later cohort were still 

enrolled after 5 years. These findings indicate that 

students in the later cohort who had not earned a 

degree were more persistent in staying enrolled, 

but required more than 5 years in their efforts to 

complete a degree. Among students who began in 

public 2-year colleges, those in the later cohort
Executive Summary 

ix 

Figure B.—Among beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in 4-year institutions, the percentage who had

Figure B.—completed a bachelor’s degree or were still enrolled in a 4-year institution 5 years after they enrolled,

Figure B.—by gender, race/ethnicity, and family income: 1989–90 and 1995–96

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic includes

Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

2

Calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income distribution; “Middle”

refers to the middle 50 percent; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed definition.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Gender

53 53 50 49 56 57

13 17 16 19 11 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96

Percent

Total Male Female

Race/ethnicity1

54 63 65

42 37

54 57 47 39

22 17 17

18 22

12 15 19 24

‡

0

20

40

60

80

100

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96

Percent

American 

Indian

Asian/Pacific

Islander

Black White Hispanic

Family income2

42 42 52 51 62 66

15 20 14 18 11 14

0

20

40

60

80

100

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96

Percent

Still enrolled in 4-year institution

Completed bachelor’s degree

Low Middle High
Executive Summary

x 

were also more likely than their counterparts who 

enrolled 6 years earlier to be enrolled in a 4-year 

institution. This result suggests that community 

college students in the later cohort were more 

persistent in maintaining their enrollment toward a 

bachelor’s degree than their counterparts who 

enrolled 6 years earlier. 

It is difficult to pinpoint what accounts for the 

increase in persistence between the two cohorts 

and to determine whether or not it is a temporary 

occurrence. Changes in the demographic 

composition of the two cohorts may be related to 

the changes in persistence. Black, Hispanic, and 

low-income students gained greater representation 

Figure C.—Among beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in 4-year institutions, the percentage who

Figure C.—completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education, by family

Figure C.—income: 1989–90 and 1995–96

*Difference between 1989–90 and 1995–96 is statistically significant (p<0.05).

NOTE: Family income is calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income 

distribution; “Middle” refers to the middle 50 percent; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed definition.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Public 4-year

77

83

66

73 78 74*

0

25

50

75

100

Low Middle High

Percent

Private not-for-profit 4-year

74

81 85 80

73

90*

0

25

50

75

100

Low Middle High

Percent

1989–90 1995–96
Executive Summary 

xi 

between 1989–90 and 1995–96. Such students 

have historically been underrepresented in 

postsecondary education and often face additional 

barriers to completing a degree. However, the data 

indicate that low-income students in public 4-year 

institutions actually increased their likelihood of 

succeeding as evidenced by an increase in their 5-

year persistence rate. Also, the percentage of 

students whose parents graduated from college 

rose over time, which would typically be 

associated with higher completion and persistence 

rates. 

Changes in students’ reliance on loans may 

also have influenced their decision to stay 

enrolled. Students who entered college in 1995–96 

were more likely than their counterparts who 

enrolled 6 years earlier to have taken out student 

loans to help finance their education. Over the 

course of their postsecondary studies, nearly onehalf of these students borrowed, compared with 

about one-third of their counterparts who had 

enrolled earlier. The prospect of leaving college in 

debt may have motivated these students to stay 

enrolled and complete a degree. 

It is also possible that the economy played a 

role in changing the rates at which students 

persisted. Students who began their postsecondary 

education in 1989–90 and who were still enrolled 

in college 5 years later (in 1994) encountered a 

growing economy with plentiful job opportunities 

(Schwenk and Pfuntner 2003). Those students 

who had not yet finished their degree may have 

been attracted to the high-tech industry job market 

and thought they could join the labor force and 

return later to finish their degree. On the other 

hand, students who began college in 1995–96 and 

who were still enrolled 5 years later (in 2000) 

faced an economy in the beginning stages of a 

recession (Martel and Langdon 2001). With fewer 

job options and greater debt, these students may 

have been less willing to take a break from their 

studies and leave without a degree. 
xii 

Foreword 

This study compares two longitudinal surveys of undergraduates who enrolled in 

postsecondary education for the first time in either 1989–90 or 1995–96 in institutions located in 

the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. The analysis focuses on changes over 

time in how well students persisted in their postsecondary programs and how many completed 

credentials within 5 years. The study also examined the demographic profiles of the two student 

populations to determine how certain student characteristics—gender, race/ethnicity, and 

income—changed over the 6-year period. 

The analysis is based on the 1990/94 and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Studies (BPS:90/94 and BPS:96/01). The BPS studies are a longitudinal component 

of the National Postsecondary Student Aid Studies (NPSAS) for 1989–90 and 1995–96. These 

are nationally representative samples of students enrolled in all types of postsecondary 

institutions, ranging from 4-year colleges and universities to less-than-2-year vocational 

institutions. The earlier BPS cohort consists of that subset of students from NPSAS who began 

their postsecondary education in 1989–90; they were interviewed again in 1992 and 1994. The 

more recent cohort includes first-time postsecondary entrants from the 1995–96 NPSAS year, 

interviewed again in 1998 and 2001. This and other reports using these datasets can be accessed 

and downloaded from the NCES website (http://nces.ed.gov). 

The estimates presented in this report were produced using the NCES Data Analysis 

System (DAS), a web-based software application that allows users to specify and generate tables 

for the BPS cohorts. The DAS produces the design-adjusted standard errors necessary for testing 

the statistical significance of differences among estimates. The DAS is now available as a webbased application as well. For more information, consult the DAS website 

(http://nces.ed.gov/das/). Researchers are encouraged to use the BPS data for their own analyses; 

more information on the datasets used in this report can be found in appendix B.
xiii 

Acknowledgments 

The authors wish to acknowledge the contribution of many individuals to the production of 

this report. At MPR Associates, Barbara Kridl, Andrea Livingston, Patti Gildersleeve, and 

Francesca Tussing edited, proofed, and formatted the report. 

Appreciation is extended to the staff of the Department of Education who reviewed the 

report at various stages in its development. At NCES, Dennis Carroll provided invaluable 

guidance throughout the production of the report. Paula Knepper provided a comprehensive 

technical and methodological review. Thanks also to Marilyn Seastrom and Robert Lerner for 

their helpful guidance and comments. At the Office of Postsecondary Education (OPE), Daniel 

Goldenberg reviewed an early draft. Members of the Institute of Education Sciences (IES), 

including Ok-Choon Park and Lynn Okagaki, reviewed the final draft and coordinated the 

report’s final review by two outside reviewers. 

We would like to offer special thanks to Jacqueline King (Director for Policy Analysis, 

American Council on Education [ACE]), Melanie Corrigan (ACE), Richard Richardson 

(Professor of Higher Education, New York University), and Larry H. Litten (Director of 

Institutional Research Dartmouth College) for their helpful reviews of early drafts of the report. 

The contribution of all these individuals ultimately made the report stronger. 
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
xv 

Table of Contents 

 Page 

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. iii

Foreword.................................................................................................................................... xii

Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................... xiii 

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. xvii

List of Figures............................................................................................................................ xx

Introduction............................................................................................................................... 1 

Key Questions in This Study................................................................................................. 2 

Data and Methods..................................................................................................................... 3 

Changes in Student Populations.............................................................................................. 7 

Race/Ethnicity and Gender.................................................................................................... 7

Age ........................................................................................................................................ 10 

Income................................................................................................................................... 10 

Parents’ Education Levels and Students’ Degree Expectations............................................ 11 

Remedial Education .............................................................................................................. 12 

Changes in Persistence Risk Profile...................................................................................... 13 

Changes in Student Borrowing and Grant Receipt ............................................................... 16 

Summary ............................................................................................................................... 18 

Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence........................................................ 19 

Changes by First Institution Type ......................................................................................... 19 

Changes by Gender, Race/Ethnicity, and Income ................................................................. 22 

Completion Gaps................................................................................................................... 34 

Changes by Risk Profile........................................................................................................ 36 

Institutional Completion Rates and Transfer......................................................................... 39 

Summary ............................................................................................................................... 42 

Conclusions................................................................................................................................ 45 

References.................................................................................................................................. 47 
Table of Contents

xvi 

 Page 

Appendix A—Glossary ............................................................................................................. 49

Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology .................................................................. 57
xvii 

List of Tables 

Table Page 

Executive Summary 

A Percentage distributions of beginning postsecondary student characteristics, by year 

enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96...................................................................................... iv 

B Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had completed a degree or were 

still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education, by type of first 

institution and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96 ...................................................... vii 

Text 

1 Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary student characteristics, by type of 

first institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96 ................................ 8 

2 Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary students, by type of first 

institution attended and year enrolled according to the highest level of education 

completed by either parent, student expectations, and remedial coursetaking: 1989–90 

and 1995–96 .................................................................................................................... 11 

3 Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary students, by type of first 

institution attended and year enrolled according to characteristics associated with 

higher risk of not completing postsecondary education: 1989–90 and 1995–96 ............ 14 

4 Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who received loans or grants, by type 

of first institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96............................ 17 

5-A Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had completed a degree or were 

still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education, by type of first 

institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96........................................ 20 

5-B Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had completed a degree or were 

still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education, by student 

characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96................................................ 23 
List of Tables

xviii 

Table Page 

6 Among beginning postsecondary students who began at 4-year institutions, the 

percentage who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began 

postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 

1995–96........................................................................................................................... 25 

7 Among beginning postsecondary students who began at public 4-year institutions, the 

percentage who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began 

postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 

1995–96........................................................................................................................... 27 

8 Among beginning postsecondary students who began at private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions, the percentage who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years 

after they began postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 

1989–90 and 1995–96 ..................................................................................................... 29 

9 Among beginning postsecondary students who began at public 2-year institutions, the 

percentage who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began 

postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 

1995–96........................................................................................................................... 31 

10 Among beginning postsecondary students who began at private for-profit institutions, 

the percentage who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they 

began postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 

and 1995–96 .................................................................................................................... 33 

11-A Percentage of beginning postsecondary students identified as traditional college 

students who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began 

postsecondary education, by type of first institution attended and year enrolled: 

1989–90 and 1995–96 ..................................................................................................... 37 

11-B Percentage of beginning postsecondary students with any risk characteristics who had 

completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary 

education, by type of first institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 

1995–96........................................................................................................................... 38 

12 Among beginning postsecondary students who had ever transferred, the percentage 

who completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary 

enrollment, by type of first institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 

1995–96........................................................................................................................... 42 

13 Summary findings for changes in degree attainment, 5-year persistence, and combined 

5-year attainment and persistence between beginning postsecondary students who first 

enrolled in 1989–90 and in 1995–96............................................................................... 43 
List of Tables 

xix 

Table Page 

Appendix 

B-1 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who had completed a 

degree or were still enrolled 5 years (2000) or 6 years (2001) after they began 

postsecondary education, by first institution type attended: 1995–96............................. 60 

B-2 Rounded unweighted sample sizes for the two BPS cohorts, by institution type ........... 60 

B-3 Standard errors for table 5-B: Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who 

had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary 

education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96............. 62 
xx 

List of Figures 

Figure Page 

Executive Summary 

A Percentage distribution of the highest level of education completed by students’ 

parents among beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in 4-year 

institutions: 1989–90 and 1995–96 ................................................................................. v 

B Among beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in 4-year institutions, the 

percentage who had completed a bachelor’s degree or were still enrolled in a 4-year 

institution 5 years after they enrolled, by gender, race/ethnicity, and family income: 

1989–90 and 1995–96 ..................................................................................................... ix 

C Among beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in 4-year institutions, the 

percentage who completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began 

postsecondary education, by family income: 1989–90 and 1995–96.............................. x 

Text 

1 Postsecondary enrollment rates and bachelor’s degree completion rates for the high 

school classes of 1972, 1982, and 1992 .......................................................................... 1 

2 Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary students by first institution type: 

1989–90 and 1995–96 ..................................................................................................... 4 

3 Among beginning postsecondary students who began at 4-year institutions, the 

percentage who had completed a bachelor’s degree or were still enrolled in a 4-year 

institution 5 years after they enrolled, by gender, race/ethnicity, and family income: 

1989–90 and 1995–96 ..................................................................................................... 35 

4 Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had ever transferred, by first 

institution: 1989–90 and 1995–96................................................................................... 40 
1 

Introduction 

Recent reports synthesizing historical data on the trends in college completion indicate that 

the overall educational attainment rates of Americans have changed little since the early 1970s 

(Barton 2002; Adelman 2004). Using data from a variety of sources including the U.S. 

Department of Education and the Census Bureau, the authors of these reports question whether 

institutions have focused too much on increasing enrollment, which has grown considerably, and 

not enough on completion. For example, the postsecondary enrollment rates for the high school 

classes of 1972, 1982, and 1992 were 60, 65, and 75 percent, respectively (figure 1). In contrast, 

the bachelor’s degree completion rates for the same three cohorts among those who enrolled in 

college were 66, 66, and 67 percent. Thus, while college access increased substantially over time, 

the rate at which college students completed bachelor’s degrees changed little. 

Figure 1.—Postsecondary enrollment rates and bachelor’s degree completion rates for the high school classes

Figure 1.—of 1972, 1982, and 1992

 

1

Bachelor’s degree attainment as of age 30 for 1972 and 1982 high school graduates and age 26 for 1992 high school graduates.

Rates based on those who had attended a 4-year institution and completed at least 10 credits.

SOURCE: Adelman, C. (1999). Answers in the Toolbox: Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and Bachelor’s Degree

Attainment (PLLI1999–8021). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: Office of Educational Research and

Improvement; Adelman, C., Daniel, B., and Berkovits, I. (2003). Postsecondary Attainment, Attendance, Curriculum, and

Performance: Selected Results from the NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary Education Transcript Study (PETS), 2000 (NCES

2003–394). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government

Printing Office; and Adelman, C. (2004). Principal Indicators of Student Academic Histories in Postsecondary Education,

1972–2000. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education.

60 65

75

66 66 67

0

20

40

60

80

100

1972 1982 1992

Percent

Postsecondary enrollment rate Bachelor’s degree completion rate 1
Introduction

2 

In attempting to examine more recent changes in degree completion, Barton (2002) 

compared the persistence rates of college freshmen who entered college 6 years apart: in 1989–

90 and 1995–96. The study analyzed data from the 1990/94 and 1996/01 Beginning 

Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Studies (BPS:90/94 and BPS:96/01). Unlike the studies 

cited above, which are based on samples of particular cohorts of high school graduates, these 

datasets sampled all new postsecondary entrants, and therefore include students who may not 

have gone directly from high school to college. The earlier BPS cohort consists of students who 

began their postsecondary education in 1989–90; they were interviewed again in 1992 and 1994. 

The more recent cohort includes first-time postsecondary entrants from the 1995–96 academic 

year, interviewed again in 1998 and 2001. However, at the time of Barton’s study, only the 1998 

follow-up (providing 3 years of persistence data) for the later survey was available, and his 

findings were inconclusive. Now that the data from the 6-year follow-up of the 1995–96 cohort 

are available, it is possible to conduct a detailed study that compares the degree completion and 

persistence rates of the students in the two BPS cohorts. That is the purpose of this report. 

Using data from the two BPS surveys, the study analyzes changes in 5-year postsecondary 

degree completion and persistence rates over the 6-year period. Special attention is paid to 

changes by the type of first institution attended and changes by key student characteristics—

gender, race/ethnicity, and income. The study also attempts to determine whether known gaps in 

postsecondary attainment among these groups have increased or closed over this 6-year time period. 

Key Questions in This Study 

Comparing students who entered postsecondary education in 1989–90 with those who 

entered in 1995–96, the report addresses the following questions: 

• How has the composition of students changed with respect to gender, race/ethnicity, 

income, age, parents’ education, and postsecondary attrition risk factors (such as 

students’ full- or part-time attendance status, hours worked while enrolled, and family 

responsibilities)? 

• Were there indications of changes in high school academic preparation, such as the 

need for remedial coursetaking while in college or the likelihood of earning a GED 

instead of a high school diploma? 

• How have rates of overall postsecondary degree completion (attainment of bachelor’s 

and associate’s degrees and certificates) and total persistence changed? 

• Taking into account the type of institutions in which students first enrolled (i.e., public 

and private not-for-profit 4-year, public 2-year, and private for-profit institutions), 

were there differential changes in rates of attainment and persistence by gender, 

race/ethnicity, and income levels? 
3 

Data and Methods 

The analysis conducted for this report is based upon the two administrations of the 

Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94 and BPS:96/01), which 

identifies students who have enrolled in postsecondary education in institutions located in the 50 

states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico for the first time in a specific academic year. 

The two cohorts of first-time entrants are those entering college in 1989–90 and 1995–96, 

respectively. Eligible students for the BPS samples were identified from participants in the two 

corresponding National Postsecondary Student Aid Studies (NPSAS:90 and NPSAS:96), 

nationally representative cross-sectional surveys of postsecondary students at all levels in all 

types of institutions. Telephone interviews were conducted in the base year as part of NPSAS and 

twice more: in 1992 and 1994 for the earlier cohort, and in 1998 and 2001 for the later cohort. 

The two BPS cohorts contain enrollment histories for roughly 6,000 and 9,000 students, 

respectively. Overall weighted response rates for the two studies were 91 and 86 percent, 

respectively. More information about the surveys can be found in appendix B of this report. 

The last follow-up for BPS:90/94 took place 5 years after the cohort first enrolled (as of 

1994), while the last follow-up for BPS:96/01 was conducted 6 years after initial enrollment. 

Therefore, even though 6-year rates of persistence (continued enrollment in college) and 

attainment were available for the later survey, 5-year rates were calculated to match the former 

rates for comparison purposes. Appendix table B1 displays the 5-year (as of June 2000) and 6-

year (as of June 2001) degree completion and persistence rates.1

Completion of a bachelor’s degree within 4 years is more strongly associated with a 

number of student and environmental characteristics than more inclusive measures of persistence 

that count continued enrollment (Astin 1993). Since results may vary depending on the definition 

of persistence and completion, outcomes presented in this report include a number of different 

indicators. Completion refers to attainment of a degree or certificate; this report shows individual 

completion rates for bachelor’s degrees, associate’s degrees, and certificates, as well as a 

combined completion rate for any type of credential. Indicators of persistence report the 

percentage of students who, though not having completed a credential, are still enrolled in 

postsecondary education 5 years after entering; this report shows persistence in 4-year and in 

less-than-4-year institutions. Finally, a combined completion and persistence rate includes all 

 

1 Berkner, He, and Cataldi (2002) conducted an extensive analysis of the 6-year educational outcomes of the BPS:96/01 cohort. 
Data and Methods

4 

categories of attainment or continued enrollment. Further information on the variables analyzed 

in this report may be found in appendix A. 

Most analyses in this report are conducted for all beginning postsecondary students as well 

as separately by the type of institution that the students first attended. Institution type combines 

information about the level of degree awarded as well as the sector (public, private not-for-profit, 

or for-profit) of a given institution. Specifically, results are analyzed for those who began in the 

following types of institutions: public 4-year, private not-for-profit 4-year, public 2-year, and all 

for-profit institutions combined. Distributions of the two cohorts across institution types are 

shown in figure 2. Other institution types are not analyzed separately in the remainder of this 

report. 

The analysis examines changes over time between the two cohorts using standard t-tests to 

determine statistical significance. When a large number of comparisons were made, statistical 

adjustments were applied using Fisher’s Protected t-test to protect against Type I errors (for 

details see appendix B). A two-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to detect 

differential changes over time by testing for interaction effects. (Statistical significance for both 

tests is reported at p<.05.) Two-way ANOVA indicates whether the amount of change in 

postsecondary completion and persistence rates differed between students who first enrolled in 

Figure 2.—Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary students by first institution type: 1989–90

Figure 2.—and 1995–96

 

1

Includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-2-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

1989–90

4

44

10

28

14

1995–96

3

15

26

11

46

Public 4-year

Other1

All for-profits

Public 2-year Private not-forprofit 4-year

Public 4-year

Other1

All for-profits

Public 2-year Private not-forprofit 4-year
Data and Methods 

5 

college in 1989–90 and those who enrolled in 1995–96 across various student characteristics. 

That is, the analysis attempts to determine whether the attainment gaps between groups of 

students, such as between low- and high-income students, grew or diminished between the 1989–

90 and 1995–96 cohorts. The findings from this analysis are entirely descriptive in nature and, 

while associations are noted, they should not be interpreted as causal inferences. 

Unless otherwise specified, all findings in this analysis are comparisons between the two 

BPS cohorts (e.g., the change in the percentage of low-income students between students who 

first enrolled in 1989–90 and in 1995–96). An asterisk next to the estimate for the 1995–96 

cohort indicates a statistically significant difference between the two cohorts (p<.05). Changes 

denoted as “increases” or “decreases” refer to the difference between the two cohorts for a 

particular group of students. In some cases, small sample sizes limited comparisons that could be 

made, in particular, when data were broken out by race/ethnicity and first institution type 

attended. When relevant to the discussion, the report points out instances where differences 

appear large, but are not statistically significant. There were too few cases of American 

Indians/Alaska Natives in the 1989–90 cohort to provide estimates separately by institution type, 

but data for this subgroup are included when all institution types are combined. Furthermore, 

when estimates are reported for American Indian/Alaska Native students, statistically significant 

differences between the two cohorts could not be determined. Therefore, discussion of this group 

is not included. 

The report is organized into two main sections. The first section describes the changes in 

the characteristics of the two student populations with respect to key demographics such as 

gender, race/ethnicity, and income levels. The report also presents changes in other 

characteristics such as parents’ highest level of education and risk factors that are related to lower 

completion and persistence rates. The second section of the report examines in detail changes in 

5-year degree completion and persistence rates, according to the type of institution students first 

attended as well as by student characteristics. 
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
7 

Changes in Student Populations 

Between 1989 and 1995, the total fall enrollment of undergraduates in postsecondary 

education increased from 11.7 to 12.2 million (U.S. Department of Education 2000, table 190). 

This increase was accompanied by changes in the demographic characteristics of the freshmen 

who enrolled during this period. For example, the racial/ethnic and family income distributions 

of students who first enrolled in postsecondary education in the academic year 1989–90 differed 

from those of students who first enrolled in 1995–96. 

Race/Ethnicity and Gender 

A comparison of the two cohorts of BPS students revealed a shift in the racial/ethnic 

composition. Between 1989–90 and 1995–96, the percentage of students who were Black 

increased from 9 to 12 percent, and the percentage who were Hispanic increased from 8 to 12 

percent (table 1).2 Such increases were observed for Black male students as well as for Hispanic 

male and female students. Correspondingly, the percentage of students who were White declined 

over this period (from 79 to 71 percent), particularly the percentage of students who were White 

males. Although no overall change was detected in the distribution of students by gender, when 

examining findings by the first institution attended, the percentage of students enrolled in private 

not-for-profit 4-year institutions who were women appeared to increase from 51 percent in 1989–

90 to 57 percent in 1995–96, but the difference is not statistically significant. 

 

2 Estimates in this report include students in institutions in Puerto Rico. It should be noted that 14 percent of the Hispanic 

students in the later BPS survey (BPS:96/01) were enrolled in Puerto Rican institutions, while in the earlier survey, students 

enrolled in Puerto Rico accounted for 3 percent of Hispanic students. When students enrolled in Puerto Rico are removed, the 

percent of Hispanic students is 7.4 and 10.8 percent, respectively, for the two cohorts. 
Changes in Student Populations

8 

Table 1.—Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary student characteristics, by type of first

Table 1.—institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 

 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Gender 

 Male 46.0 45.2 46.5 45.8 48.6 43.3 

 Female 54.0 54.8 53.5 54.2 51.4 56.7 

Race/ethnicity2

 American Indian 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 4.0 4.6 4.8 5.8 4.0 6.3*

 Black 8.8 11.9* 8.6 10.9 6.2 10.3*

 Male 3.3 4.8* 3.0 4.6 2.4 3.1 

 Female 5.5 7.1 5.6 6.4 3.9 7.2*

 White 78.8 70.6* 81.9 71.9* 84.4 73.4*

 Male 37.1 31.9* 39.4 33.3* 41.7 32.9*

 Female 41.7 38.6 42.4 38.6 42.7 40.4 

 Hispanic3 7.6 12.2* 4.4 10.7* 4.8 9.8*

 Male 3.5 5.4* 1.7 4.6* 2.2 3.9*

 Female 4.1 6.8* 2.8 6.1* 2.7 5.9*

Age as of 12/31 in year of enrollment

 18 years or younger 55.2 45.3* 74.5 62.1* 76.6 66.6*

 19 years 17.0 21.9* 17.0 24.7* 16.0 23.6*

 20–29 years 18.1 21.1* 6.0 10.4* 4.5 7.3*

 30 years or older 9.7 11.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.5 

Income relative to poverty level4

 Dependent students

 Below 125 percent 12.6 16.2* 10.5 15.1* 10.1 12.2 

 125–449 percent 58.9 56.0 56.2 53.7 51.6 49.9 

 450 percent or higher 28.5 27.8 33.4 31.2 38.3 37.9 

 Independent students

 Below 125 percent 38.4 47.1* 47.1 50.3 32.6 47.0*

 125–449 percent 56.0 46.4* 48.0 40.9 50.4 43.2 

 450 percent or higher 5.7 6.5 4.9 8.8 17.0 9.8 

See notes at end of table.

4-year institutions

Total Public 1 Private not-for-profit
Changes in Student Populations 

9 

Table 1.—Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary student characteristics, by type of first

Table 1.—institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96—Continued

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 

 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Gender 

 Male 49.0 48.2 33.1 33.6 

 Female 51.0 51.8 66.9 66.5 

Race/ethnicity2

 American Indian 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.4 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 3.7 3.8 1.9 2.4 

 Black 8.5 11.5 18.2 18.6 

 Male 3.8 5.6 5.2 4.8 

 Female 4.7 5.9 13.1 13.9 

 White 75.9 72.1* 68.4 56.7*

 Male 37.3 33.8 21.9 19.5 

 Female 38.7 38.4 46.5 37.2 

 Hispanic3 11.1 11.8 10.2 21.1*

 Male 5.8 5.9 3.8 6.9*

 Female 5.4 5.9 6.4 14.1*

Age as of 12/31 in year of enrollment

 18 years or younger 43.9 36.5* 27.5 19.4*

 19 years 18.0 21.8 16.0 15.2 

 20–29 years 24.1 26.1 39.7 41.3 

 30 years or older 14.0 15.7 16.9 24.1*

Income relative to poverty level4

 Dependent students

 Below 125 percent 13.5 16.0 20.7 34.9*

 125–449 percent 63.4 60.9 64.9 56.4 

 450 percent or higher 23.2 23.2 14.4 8.7*

 Independent students

 Below 125 percent 35.2 40.3 48.4 61.7*

 125–449 percent 58.5 52.5 48.6 34.8*

 450 percent or higher 6.3 7.3 3.0 3.5 

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

Total also includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-4-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions.

2

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

3

It should be noted that 14 percent of Hispanic students in the later BPS survey (BPS:96/01) were from Puerto Rican institutions, while

in the earlier survey, students from Puerto Rico accounted for 3 percent of Hispanic students. When students from Puerto Rico are

removed, the total percentages of Hispanic students are 7.4 and 10.8, respectively, for the two cohorts (BPS:90/94 and BPS:96/01). 4

Describes income as a percentage of the established poverty threshold for a given family size (see appendix A for detailed definition).

For dependent students, calculation is based on parents’ income. For independent students, calculation is based on their own income.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Public 2-year Private for-profit
Changes in Student Populations

10 

Age 

During the period studied, the percentage of 18-year-olds declined from 55 to 45 percent, 

while the percentage of 19-year-olds increased from 17 to 22 percent (table 1).3 The percentage 

of students in their 20s also increased from 18 to 21 percent. Examining age changes by the type 

of institution first attended revealed that the decrease in the percentage of 18-year-olds occurred 

across all institution types. For example, among students who began in public 4-year institutions, 

the percentage of 18-year-olds decreased from 75 to 62 percent, while the percentage of 19-yearolds increased from 17 to 25 percent. Likewise, among those who began at private not-for-profit 

4-year institutions, the percentage of 18-year-olds declined from 77 to 67 percent, while the 

percentage of 19-year-olds increased from 16 to 24 percent. In both public 2-year and private forprofit institutions, the percentage of 18-year-olds decreased. 

Income 

Table 1 shows the distribution of the two cohorts of college entrants by their income 

relative to established federal poverty levels. In the 6 years between cohorts, the percentage of 

low-income dependent students increased from 13 to 16 percent overall (table 1).4 The increase 

in the percentage of low-income students held for dependent students enrolled in both public 4-

year institutions (from 10 to 15 percent) and private for-profit institutions (from 21 to 35 

percent). 

The percentage of independent students who were low income (based on students’ income) 

rose from 38 percent in 1989–90 to 47 percent in 1995–96.5 This increase was observed at both 

private not-for-profit 4-year institutions (from 33 to 47 percent) and private for-profit institutions 

(from 48 to 62 percent). In other words, among independent students who first enrolled in private 

not-for-profit 4-year institutions the percentage who were low income increased from about onethird to almost one-half, and the comparable percentages in private for-profit institutions 

increased from about one-half to about three-fifths. 

 

3 Age was determined as of December of the survey base year (1989 or 1995). 

4 In the analysis comparing income levels between the BPS cohorts, “low income” is defined as family incomes that did not 

exceed 125 percent of established poverty levels. Poverty levels are calculated for families of different sizes. Dependent students 

are typically those under the age of 24 and are reported as dependents by their parents on financial aid applications. Dependent 

income levels are based on parents’ income the year before students enrolled. See appendix A for more details. 

5 The definition of independent students changed somewhat between cohorts. In 1989–90, students under age 24 could be 

considered independent if they could demonstrate sufficient income and they were not claimed as an income tax exemption by 

their parents in 1988 or 1989. The Higher Education Reauthorization Act of 1992 eliminated the procedure for this determination

and authorized institutions’ financial aid officers to make their own determination of the dependency status of students under age 

24. This change may have had an impact on the income distribution of independent students. 
Changes in Student Populations 

11 

Parents’ Education Levels and Students’ Degree Expectations 

Students whose parents graduated from college are typically more successful in completing 

college degrees than their counterparts whose parents never attended postsecondary education 

(Nuñez and Cuccaro-Alamin 1998). The level of education completed by one or both parents 

increased over time for beginning postsecondary students (table 2). The likelihood that students 

had at least one parent who held a bachelor’s degree increased from 34 to 37 percent overall 

between those who enrolled in 1989–90 and their counterparts who enrolled in 1995–96. This 

increase was particularly apparent for students who began at public 4-year institutions (from 44 

to 50 percent) and at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions (from 53 to 60 percent). 

Students’ own educational expectations also increased between the two cohorts. However, 

it should be noted that the students in BPS:96/01 cohort were given the opportunity to report 

“don’t know,” while those in the earlier cohort were not. Therefore, for comparability, those who 

responded “don’t know” (12 percent) were removed from the analysis.6 Based on these 

Table 2.—Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary students, by type of first institution attended

Table 2.—and year enrolled according to the highest level of education completed by either parent, student

Table 2.—expectations, and remedial coursetaking: 1989–90 and 1995–96

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 

 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Parents’ highest education level

 High school diploma or less 43.4 41.7 29.5 30.4 25.0 24.7 

 Some postsecondary education 22.9 21.6 26.8 19.6 21.6 15.5 

 Bachelor’s degree or higher 33.7 36.8* 43.7 50.0* 53.4 59.8*

Student expectations2

 Less than bachelor’s degree 21.9 16.7* 3.6 2.3 2.8 1.1*

 Bachelor’s degree 35.9 31.7* 36.0 22.4* 28.7 19.6*

 Advanced degree 42.1 51.6* 60.3 75.3* 68.5 79.3*

Remedial courses taken in first year

 Any 15.3 18.6* 16.1 17.9 10.4 11.3 

 Mathematics 8.6 12.1* 8.7 11.2 3.5 5.5*

 Reading 7.4 6.8 6.1 5.1 3.8 4.2 

 Writing 6.2 7.1 5.8 6.7 3.7 4.8 

See notes at end of table.

Private not-for-profit

4-year institutions

Total Public 1

 

6 The distribution including the “don’t know” respondents is as follows: don’t know=12 percent; less than bachelor’s=15 

percent; bachelor’s degree=28 percent; and advanced=46 percent. 
Changes in Student Populations

12 

comparisons, the percentage of beginning postsecondary students who reported that they expected 

to complete an advanced (graduate or first-professional) degree rose from 42 to 52 percent, while 

those who expected to earn a bachelor’s degree or a credential less than a bachelor’s degree 

declined (36 to 32 percent and 22 to 17 percent, respectively). Increases in the percentage of 

students reporting advanced degree expectations held at public and private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions and public 2-year colleges, while the percentage of students expecting less than a 

bachelor’s degree declined in private not-for-profit 4-year and public 2-year institutions.

Remedial Education 

The rate at which students participate in remedial education is an indication of how 

prepared they are to undertake coursework at the postsecondary level. In both BPS surveys, 

participants reported on whether they had taken any remedial-level courses, and they also 

specified the types of classes taken (table 2). Students who reported participation in any remedial 

Table 2.—Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary students, by type of first institution attended

Table 2.—and year enrolled according to the highest level of education completed by either parent, student

Table 2.—expectations, and remedial coursetaking: 1989–90 and 1995–96—Continued

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 

 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Parents’ highest education level

 High school diploma or less 50.5 46.5 66.8 68.3 

 Some postsecondary education 21.8 25.4 20.9 17.7 

 Bachelor’s degree or higher 27.8 28.1 12.3 14.1 

Student expectations

 Less than bachelor’s degree 29.0 20.8* 60.3 51.3*

 Bachelor’s degree 41.1 41.2 23.9 29.6 

 Advanced degree 29.9 38.1* 15.8 19.1 

Remedial courses taken in first year

 Any 18.5 25.0* 8.7 5.4*

 Mathematics 11.5 17.0* 5.3 3.4 

 Reading 10.3 10.0 4.1 1.7*

 Writing 8.2 9.5 3.3 2.0 

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05).

1

Total also includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-4-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions. 2

In 1995–96 students were given the option of reporting “Don’t know.” For comparability to those in 1989–90, who were not

given this option, students who responded “Don’t know” in 1995–96 (12 percent) were removed.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Public 2-year Private for-profit
Changes in Student Populations 

13 

courses increased from 15 to 19 percent between the two cohorts. The increase was due primarily 

to an increase in remedial coursetaking among students in public 2-year colleges (19 to 25 

percent). In contrast, a decline in remedial coursetaking was evident among those attending forprofit institutions (9 to 5 percent). 

Remedial mathematics coursetaking rose from 9 to 12 percent, overall due to an increase 

among students in public 2-year colleges (from 11 to 17 percent) and private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions (from 3 to 6 percent).

Changes in Persistence Risk Profile 

Research has shown that many factors may contribute to postsecondary attrition (Bean and 

Metzner 1985; Tinto 1993). Using BPS data, earlier research identified specific risk characteristics 

associated with students’ likelihood of leaving postsecondary education without attaining a credential 

(Horn and Premo 1995; Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and McCormick 1996). These characteristics 

include delaying postsecondary enrollment more than a year after high school graduation, being 

financially independent, attending part time, working full time while enrolled, having children or 

dependents other than a spouse, being a single parent, and dropping out of high school (including 

dropouts who later complete a GED or high school equivalency certificate). Students with none of 

these risk characteristics are typically considered to be “traditional” college students—that is, they are 

dependent students who enroll in college full time immediately after graduating from high school. 

Measures of academic achievement such as high school grade-point average and admissions test 

scores are also strongly associated with persistence among predominantly traditional student 

populations enrolled in 4-year institutions (Astin 1993). However, high school grade-point average is 

not available in the BPS data, and admissions test scores for members of the 1989–90 cohort who first 

enrolled in 4-year institutions is incomplete;7 so these variables were not included as persistence risk 

factors in this report. Once again, the reader is reminded that the findings from this analysis are 

entirely descriptive in nature and, while associations between risk factors and enrollment status are 

noted, they should not be interpreted as causal inferences. 

While some changes in students’ risk characteristics were evident between those in the two 

BPS cohorts, the findings shown in table 3 indicate that roughly one-half of each cohort had at 

 

7 Thirty-six percent of students who began at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions and 40 percent of those who began at 

public 4-year institutions are missing both SAT and ACT scores in the 1989–90 cohort (U.S. Department of Education, National 

Center for Education Statistics, BPS:90/94 Data Analysis System). However, in the later BPS:96/01 cohort, the weighted 

percentage of valid scores for 4-year college students is 90 percent (U.S. Department of Education, National Center for 

Education Statistics, BPS:96/01 Data Analysis System). It is anticipated that the newest BPS cohort (BPS:2003/2004), currently 

in data collection, will have a 90 percent response rate or higher for 4-year college students’ entrance exam scores, thereby 

making comparisons over time possible between BPS:95/96 and BPS:2003/2004). The base-year data for the newest cohort 

should be available by the spring of 2005. 
Changes in Student Populations

14 

least one risk factor when they first enrolled in postsecondary education. Looking at specific risk 

factors, the percentage of students who had delayed their postsecondary enrollment increased 

from 12 to 18 percent for students who began in public 4-year institutions. This change is 

Table 3.—Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary students, by type of first institution attended

Table 3.—and year enrolled according to characteristics associated with higher risk of not completing

Table 3.—postsecondary education: 1989–90 and 1995–96

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 

 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Number of risk factors 

 Any risk factors 52.7 50.6 27.3 24.7 20.0 17.6 

 1 or 2 29.1 25.4* 21.1 18* 14.6 12.7 

 3 or more 23.6 25.2 6.2 6.7 5.4 4.9 

Dependency status

 Dependent 74.0 72.5 91.1 91.9 92.3 93.3 

 Independent 26.0 27.5 8.9 8.1 7.7 6.7 

Attendance status when first enrolled

 Full-time 70.4 72.5 88.9 88.6 94.2 94.1 

 Part-time 29.6 27.5 11.1 11.4 5.8 6.0 

Worked while enrolled in first year

 Any work 61.1 69.8* 49.7 60.3* 48.2 64.5*

 1–24 hours 21.5 31.1* 24.5 37.0* 29.0 48.1*

 25–34 hours 13.2 15.5* 11.1 12.8 6.4 8.1 

 35 or more 26.5 23.3* 14.2 10.5* 12.8 8.4*

Delayed enrollment

 Did not delay 67.0 63.4 87.7 82.0* 89.7 86.7 

 Delayed 33.0 36.6 12.3 18.0* 10.3 13.3 

Dependents other than spouse

 None 86.2 83.8 96.7 95.8 96.6 97.1 

 One or more 13.8 16.2 3.3 4.2 3.4 2.9 

Single parent status

 Not a single parent 94.3 91.0* 98.7 97.6* 98.7 98.5 

 Single parent 5.7 9.0* 1.4 2.4* 1.3 1.5 

High school graduation status

 High school diploma 93.6 90.3* 98.6 98.3 98.2 97.6 

 GED or alternative certificate 6.3 6.6 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.2 

 No high school diploma 0.1 3.0* # 0.2 # 0.3 

See notes at end of table.

Private not-for-profit

4-year institutions

Total Public 1
Changes in Student Populations 

15 

Table 3.—Percentage distribution of beginning postsecondary students, by type of first institution attended

Table 3.—and year enrolled according to characteristics associated with higher risk of not completing

Table 3.—postsecondary education: 1989–90 and 1995–96—Continued

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 

 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 

Number of risk factors 

 Any risk factors 72.2 67.0* 76.7 80.7 

 1 or 2 38.2 33.6 30.6 26.0 

 3 or more 34.0 33.4 46.1 54.7 

Dependency status

 Dependent 65.5 65.5 44.6 34.7 

 Independent 34.5 34.5 55.4 65.3 

Attendance status 

 Full-time 48.5 52.6 86.2 86.6 

 Part-time 51.5 47.4 13.8 13.4 

Worked while enrolled in first year

 Any work 72.5 80.7* 57.3 55.8 

 1–24 hours 19.1 25.8* 13.0 18.6*

 25–34 hours 16.4 19.8 12.6 14.1 

 35 or more 37.1 35.1 31.6 23.1*

Delayed enrollment

 Did not delay 56.0 54.4 33.1 30.0 

 Delayed 44.0 45.6 66.9 70.0 

Dependents other than spouse

 None 81.0 79.4 68.2 60.1 

 One or more 19.0 20.6 31.8 40.0 

Single parent status

 Not a single parent 93.3 90.0* 80.8 71.2*

 Single parent 6.7 10.0* 19.2 28.8*

High school graduation status

 High school diploma 92.2 88.0* 81.8 74.2*

 GED or alternative certificate 7.6 8.1 17.7 15.8 

 No high school diploma 0.2 4.0* 0.5 10.0*

#Rounds to zero.

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05).

1

Total also includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-2-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Public 2-year Private for-profit
Changes in Student Populations

16 

consistent with the fact that among these students, the percentage of 19-year-olds increased and 

the percentage of 18-year-olds decreased.

Changes in other risk characteristics were also evident. Overall, the percentage of students 

who worked while enrolled as freshmen increased from 61 to 70 percent. This increase, however, 

occurred primarily among those working less than 25 hours per week (from 22 to 31 percent), 

while the percentage of students working full time declined from 26 to 23 percent.8 Only fulltime employment (i.e., working 35 or more hours per week while enrolled) is considered a risk 

characteristic. Thus students’ risk associated with working full time while enrolled declined even 

though more students reported working. 

Between 1989–90 and 1995–96, the percentage of beginning postsecondary students who 

were single parents increased from 6 to 9 percent. Among the relatively small percentage of 

single parents in 4-year institutions, an increase was detected among students who began in 

public 4-year colleges (from 1 to 2 percent). Among those who started in public 2-year 

institutions the percentage of single parents rose from 7 to 10 percent, and among students who 

began in for-profit institutions, the percentage of single parents increased from 19 to 29 percent.

An examination of students’ high school credentials among those who enrolled in postsecondary 

education revealed that the percentage of beginning students who graduated from high school with a 

regular high school diploma declined from 94 percent in 1989–90 to 90 percent in 1995–96 (table 3). 

This change, however, was observed only for students who began in public 2-year or in private forprofit institutions. The percentage of high school dropouts who first enrolled in private for-profit 

institutions increased from less than 1 percent to 10 percent between 1989–90 and 1995–96, 

while comparable percentages for those entering community colleges increased from 0.2 percent to 

4 percent. During this period, no change was detected in the percentage of students who entered 

postsecondary institutions with a GED or equivalency certificate. 

Changes in Student Borrowing and Grant Receipt 

Between 1989 and 1995, tuition at postsecondary institutions increased nationwide from 20 

to 40 percent depending on the type of institution (The College Board 1998). In addition, federal 

loan regulations expanded students’ eligibility for both unsubsidized and subsidized loans 

(Berkner 2000). Corresponding to these changes, the percentage of students who borrowed to 

help pay for their postsecondary education increased from about one-fifth to nearly one-third in 

their first year of enrollment, and throughout their enrollment, increased from about one-third to 

almost one-half (table 4). Likewise, the percentage of students who received grants of any type 

 

8 The increase from 13 to 16 percent for those working 25-34 hours is also significant. 
Changes in Student Populations 

17 

Table 4.—Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who received loans or grants, by type of first

Table 4.—institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

1989–90 1995–96 

Received loans

 In first year 19.6 30.9*

 Any throughout enrollment 31.2 46.7*

Received grants

 In first year 38.1 49.8*

 Any throughout enrollment 47.1 61.9*

Received loans

 In first year 20.5 41.7*

 Any throughout enrollment 37.2 57.5*

Received grants

 In first year 38.2 54.1*

 Any throughout enrollment 49.6 66.7*

Received loans

 In first year 40.2 58.8*

 Any throughout enrollment 53.8 66.6*

Received grants

 In first year 66.3 74.4*

 Any throughout enrollment 72.4 81.6*

Received loans

 In first year 4.6 8.5*

 Any throughout enrollment 14.3 29.7*

Received grants

 In first year 24.4 35.0*

 Any throughout enrollment 34.7 50.1*

Received loans

 In first year 57.2 63.1 

 Any throughout enrollment 66.0 66.3 

Received grants

 In first year 57.1 65.5 

 Any throughout enrollment 61.8 71.9*

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

Totals also include private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-2-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Total1

Private for-profit

Total

Public 4-year

Private not-for-profit 4-year

Public 2-year
Changes in Student Populations

18 

increased from 38 to 50 percent in the first year of their enrollment, and from 47 to 62 percent 

over the course of their enrollment. These changes in education financing held for students in all 

4-year and public 2-year institutions. Thus, while increases in financial aid accompanied 

increases in tuition, nearly one-half of all beginning postsecondary students in the 1995–96 

survey would end their postsecondary education with loan debt, compared with roughly one-third 

of their counterparts who enrolled earlier. 

Summary 

During the 6-year period under study, the profile of students entering postsecondary 

education changed in several ways. Black and Hispanic students increased their representation in 

college, as did low-income students. Such students have historically been underrepresented in 

postsecondary education. Student population changes are influenced by many factors, such as 

changes in the applicant pools and admissions policies (Bowen and Bok 1998). Given these 

changes, one might expect a decline in the likelihood of students persisting in their postsecondary 

programs and completing postsecondary credentials. However, these shifts in student 

demographics were accompanied by an increase in parents’ education levels, which are 

associated with higher rates of college completion. 

To finance their postsecondary education, students who participated in the 1995–96 survey 

were more likely to rely on student loans than their counterparts who had enrolled 6 years earlier. 

More students, therefore, were leaving postsecondary education, whether they graduated or not, 

with education-related debt. 
19 

Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

Table 5-A summarizes the educational outcomes of the two cohorts in terms of their 5-year 

degree completion and persistence rates. Unlike those in previous tables, the findings here are 

presented as row percentages with the estimates for the 1989–90 students displayed above those 

for the 1995–96 students. An asterisk next to the estimate for the 1995–96 cohort again indicates 

a statistically significant difference between the two cohorts (p<.05). Apparent differences 

between estimates that are not indicated are not statistically significant. 

As illustrated in the last column of the table, roughly two-thirds of students in both cohorts 

(63 and 65 percent, respectively) had either completed a postsecondary credential or were still 

enrolled 5 years after they began their postsecondary studies. There was an increase from 8 to 12 

percent between the two cohorts in the percentage of students who had not yet completed a 

degree, but who were still enrolled in a 4-year institution 5 years after they began (column 5). 

Conversely, overall degree completion (column 1) declined from 50 to 47 percent. However, 

when examining each type of postsecondary degree individually (i.e., bachelor’s, associate’s, or 

certificate), no differences were detected. 

Changes by First Institution Type 

Institution characteristics are also associated with persistence (Bowen and Bok 1998; Astin 

1993).9 Changes in students’ degree completion and 5-year persistence rates were evident when 

examining the findings by the type of first institution attended. Results are displayed for students 

enrolled in any 4-year institution (combining public and private not-for-profit institutions), public 

4-year institutions, private not-for-profit 4-year institutions, public 2-year institutions, and private 

for-profit institutions. 

Four-Year Institutions 

In both BPS surveys, among students who began in 4-year institutions, about 53 percent 

had completed a bachelor’s degree in 5 years (table 5-A). Again, the percentage of students in the 

 

9 In addition to institution type, Bowen and Bok (1998) also include a measure of institutional selectivity, based on mean student 

admissions test scores. No information for the institutions in this report was available to measure institutional selectivity; 

however, NCES’s Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) has begun to collect admissions information that 

may be used to further examine variation across institutions in future studies. 
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

20 

Table 5-A.—Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had completed a degree or were still

Table 5-A.—enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education, by type of first institution attended

Table 5-A.—and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total 

 Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

 Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

 Total

 1989–90 49.9 25.8 11.2 13.0 8.1 5.2 36.8 63.2 

 1995–96 46.6* 25.1 9.9 11.7 11.6* 6.6 35.2 64.9 

Type of first institution

 All 4-year

 1989–90 60.3 53.3 4.2 2.9 13.3 1.9 24.4 75.6 

 1995–96 59.3 53.4 3.7 2.3 17.2* 3.2* 20.4* 79.6*

 Public 4-year

 1989–90 54.8 46.9 4.7 3.2 16.1 2.3 26.8 73.2 

 1995–96 53.3 46.6 4.1 2.6 20.9* 3.7* 22.1* 77.9*

 Private not-for-profit 4-year

 1989–90 71.9 66.6 3.0 2.3 7.4 1.2 19.6 80.4 

 1995–96 69.8 65.3 2.9 1.6 10.7* 2.2* 17.3 82.7 

 Public 2-year

 1989–90 36.7 6.3 17.5 12.9 5.1 9.6 48.6 51.4 

 1995–96 32.0 6.9 15.9 9.3* 9.7* 10.5 47.8 52.2 

 For-profit

 1989–90 59.7 1.6 11.1 46.9 0.7 1.1 38.6 61.4 

 1995–96 58.6 1.4 8.2 49.1 1.6 3.2* 36.6 63.4 

 Other1

 1989–90 54.6 3.6 16.2 34.9 4.4 2.8 38.2 61.9 

 1995–96 53.0 3.2 10.7 39.1 3.8 5.3 37.9 62.1 

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

Includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-2-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

No degree, 5-year persistence
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

21 

4-year sector who were still enrolled in the same sector 5 years after they began increased from 

13 to 17 percent, while the percentage who left with no degree declined from 24 to 20 percent.10

Correspondingly, the combined 5-year completion and persistence rate increased, from 76 to 80 

percent. The small percentage of students who began in the 4-year sector and who, 5 years later, 

were enrolled in institutions with programs lasting no more than 2 years (such as programs in 

community colleges) also increased from 2 to 3 percent. These students presumably changed 

their degree expectations when they transferred from a 4-year to less-than-4-year institution. 

The results for students who began in public 4-year institutions paralleled those for students 

who began in all 4-year institutions. The likelihood of still being enrolled in a 4-year institution 

after 5 years increased, from 16 to 21 percent. There was also a small but significant increase in 

the likelihood of still being enrolled after 5 years in an institution with programs lasting no more 

than 2 years (from 2 to 4 percent). As a result of these changes, the combined 5-year completion 

and persistence rate increased from 73 to 78 percent, along with a concomitant decline in the 

percentage who left with no degree, from 27 to 22 percent. In private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions, there were increases in the likelihood of still being enrolled either in a 4-year 

institution or in an institution with programs lasting 2 years or less (from 7 to 11 percent and 

from 1 to 2 percent, respectively). Despite these changes, however, no measurable change in 

either the percentage who left with no degree or in the combined completion and persistence rate 

between the two cohorts could be detected. 

Public 2-Year Institutions 

In public 2-year institutions, the percentage of students who earned a vocational certificate 

declined from 13 to 9 percent (table 5-A). On the other hand, as in the 4-year sector, the 

likelihood of still being enrolled in a 4-year institution increased from 5 to 10 percent between 

cohorts. Thus, the data suggest that students in the later survey may have been more persistent in 

maintaining their enrollment toward completing a bachelor’s degree. 

Private for-Profit Institutions 

Private for-profit institutions, also known as private career academies, are institutions that 

typically provide short-term occupational and career training, but their programs may last from 

just a few months to the 4 or more years it usually takes to complete a bachelor’s degree (Phipps, 

Harrison, and Merisotis 1999). In both BPS surveys, roughly 1-in-10 beginning students enrolled 

 

10 It is possible that students who left resumed their postsecondary education at a later date (i.e., stopped out), but within the 5-

year time frame of each survey, they had not earned a degree and were not enrolled. 
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

22 

in these institutions (Fitzgerald et al. 1994; Berkner, Horn, and Clune 2000); thus, they represent 

a relatively small percentage of all beginning postsecondary students. 

As shown in the last column of table 5-A, in both surveys, approximately 60 percent of 

students who first enrolled in private for-profit institutions had either obtained a credential or 

were still enrolled. Likewise, the total completion rate for both cohorts was nearly 60 percent, 

and about three-quarters of the credentials acquired were vocational certificates. The only change 

observed over time for students who first enrolled in these institutions was an increase in the 

small percentage who were still enrolled in an institution with programs lasting 2 years or less 

(from 1 to 3 percent). 

 Changes by Gender, Race/Ethnicity, and Income 

Both overall and within institution types, completion and persistence rates were also 

calculated by gender, race/ethnicity, and family income.11 While variations in postsecondary 

completion and persistence measures by demographic characteristics were evident, most of these 

changes were observed among students in specific institution types rather than among all 

students. In fact, the increase in the likelihood of still being enrolled in a 4-year institution held 

for both men and women and across all income levels (table 5-B). The finding also held for 

White students.12 

Four-Year Institutions 

As discussed in the previous section describing outcomes by institution type, the combined 

degree completion and 5-year persistence rate increased over time in the 4-year sector, as did the 

rate at which students were still enrolled in 4-year institutions 5 years after they began 

postsecondary education, while the percentage with no degree who were not enrolled decreased. 

Within the 4-year sector, some variations by gender, race/ethnicity and income levels were 

 

11 For the analysis of completion and persistence, family income is based on the distribution of income within each cohort by 

dependency status (the calculation for dependent students is based on parents’ income, while the calculation for independent 

students is based on their own income). “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of each distribution; “Middle” refers to the middle 

50 percent of each distribution; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent of each distribution. See appendix A for more details. 

12 The sample sizes of American Indian/Alaska Native students were particularly small and despite what look like substantial 

changes over time (e.g., increase in bachelor’s degree completion from 16 to 28 percent and decline in combined completion and 

persistence rate from 72 to 59 percent), these changes are not statistically significant. Moreover, the sample sizes of American 

Indian/Alaska Native students were not large enough for reliable estimates when broken out by first institution attended. 
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

23 

Table 5-B.—Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had completed a degree or were still

Table 5-B.—enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year

Table 5-B.—enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total

 Still Still enrolled No degree, completed

 Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted

Gender

 Male

 1989–90 46.0 24.5 10.2 11.3 10.0 5.6 38.4 61.6

 1995–96 43.8 23.5 10.7 9.6 14.1* 6.6 35.6 64.4

 Female

 1989–90 53.4 26.9 12.1 14.4 6.3 4.8 35.4 64.6

 1995–96 49.0* 26.3 9.3 13.4 9.6* 6.6 34.8 65.2

Race/ethnicity1

 American Indian 

 1989–90 50.5 15.8 11.9 22.8 # 21.5 28.0 72.0

 1995–96 39.3 27.8 2.8 8.7 15.0 4.4 41.3 58.7

 Asian/Pacific Islander

 1989–90 54.4 34.4 8.5 11.5 13.5 6.4 25.7 74.3

 1995–96 53.3 35.7 10.6 6.9 16.0 7.6 23.2 76.8

 Black

 Total

 1989–90 41.8 16.9 8.8 16.1 8.2 5.3 44.7 55.3

 1995–96 36.6 14.5 5.2 16.9 11.2 7.2 45.1 54.9

 Male

 1989–90 40.3 13.1 11.7 15.5 8.9 4.7 46.2 53.8

 1995–96 35.1 12.4 6.2 16.5 10.9 7.8 46.3 53.7

 Female

 1989–90 42.7 19.3 7.0 16.4 7.8 5.7 43.9 56.1

 1995–96 37.5 15.9 4.6 17.1 11.4 6.7 44.3 55.7

 White

 Total

 1989–90 51.2 27.3 11.6 12.3 7.9 4.3 36.6 63.5

 1995–96 48.7 27.8 10.3 10.6 11.4* 6.3 33.6 66.4

 Male

 1989–90 46.9 26.1 10.4 10.4 10.1 4.6 38.4 61.6

 1995–96 45.2 26.2 11.0 8.1 14.8* 5.9 34.1 65.9

 Female

 1989–90 55.1 28.3 12.8 14.0 5.9 4.1 34.9 65.1

 1995–96 51.6 29.1 9.8 12.8 8.5* 6.7 33.2 66.8

 Hispanic

 Total

 1989–90 45.1 17.8 11.5 15.7 6.8 11.8 36.4 63.6

 1995–96 41.4 15.2 11.8 14.4 11.4 7.4 39.8 60.2

 Male

 1989–90 34.9 14.4 8.8 11.8 7.3 16.0 41.7 58.3

 1995–96 38.9 14.1 12.9 11.9 10.2 8.1 42.7 57.3

 Female

 1989–90 54.0 20.9 13.9 19.2 6.3 8.0 31.7 68.3

 1995–96 43.3 16.0 10.9 16.4 12.3* 6.8 37.6 62.5

See notes at end of table.

Highest degree completed

No degree, 5-year persistence
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

24 

detected for the completion and persistence measures (table 6). Both men and women 

experienced an increase in the percentage still enrolled at 4-year institutions as well as in the 

combined completion and persistence rate (resulting in a decrease in the percentage with no 

degree who were not enrolled). Similarly, the percentage of White students who had earned no 

degree but were still enrolled in a 4-year institution increased (from 12 to 15 percent). Although 

it appears that the percentage of Black and Hispanic students enrolled in 4-year institutions 

increased, readers should be cautioned that the increase is not statistically significant, perhaps as 

a result of small sample sizes and large standard errors. 

Changes by income levels among students in the 4-year sector, on the other hand, were 

observed for students at the lowest income level. There were increases in both the combined 

degree completion and persistence rate (from 68 to 74 percent) and the rate of remaining enrolled 

in a 4-year institution (from 15 to 20 percent), with a concomitant decrease in the percentage who 

were not enrolled and had not obtained a degree (from 32 to 26 percent). In both cohorts, about 

42 percent of low-income students had completed a bachelor’s degree in 5 years. In the case of 

high-income students, degree completion rates did not increase measurably; however, a 5 

Table 5-B.—Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had completed a degree or were still

Table 5-B.—enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year

Table 5-B.—enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96—Continued

Total

 Still Still enrolled No degree, completed

 Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted

Family income2

 Low

 1989–90 45.5 16.7 11.5 17.2 7.3 4.9 42.3 57.7

 1995–96 43.9 15.0 14.0 14.9 10.7* 6.1 39.4 60.6

 Middle

 1989–90 49.5 24.6 11.6 13.2 7.8 5.2 37.5 62.5

 1995–96 45.7 23.7 9.5 12.5 11.4* 7.4 35.5 64.5

 High

 1989–90 55.9 38.4 9.8 7.7 9.5 5.5 29.1 70.9

 1995–96 52.6 41.0 5.9* 5.7 12.8* 5.4 29.2 70.8

#Rounds to zero.

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

2

Calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income distribution;

“Middle” refers to the middle 50 percent; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed definition.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

No degree, 5-year persistence

Highest degree completed
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

25 

Table 6.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at 4-year institutions, the percentage who

Table 6.—had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education,

Table 6.—by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total 

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

 Total

 1989–90 60.3 53.3 4.2 2.9 13.3 1.9 24.4 75.6 

 1995–96 59.3 53.4 3.7 2.3 17.2* 3.2* 20.4* 79.6*

Gender

 Male

 1989–90 56.4 50.1 3.9 2.4 15.7 1.6 26.3 73.7 

 1995–96 54.7 49.4 3.4 1.8 19.4* 4.0* 21.9* 78.1*

 Female

 1989–90 63.9 56.2 4.4 3.4 11.1 2.3 22.8 77.2 

 1995–96 63.1 56.7 3.8 2.6 15.4* 2.5 19.1* 80.9*

Race/ethnicity1

 American Indian 

 1989–90 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ 

 1995–96 58.1 54.2 3.9 # 21.9 5.0 15.1 84.9 

 Asian/Pacific Islander

 1989–90 67.2 62.7 1.8 2.7 17.1 1.6 14.1 85.9 

 1995–96 66.9 65.0 1.7 0.2 16.8 3.2 13.2 86.9 

 Black

 Total

 1989–90 50.8 41.9 4.3 4.6 18.1 3.2 27.9 72.1 

 1995–96 43.7 37.4 2.8 3.5 22.2 4.6 29.5 70.5 

 Male

 1989–90 45.2 38.0 4.3 2.9 25.9 2.1 26.9 73.1 

 1995–96 36.2 30.7 3.2 2.3 22.0 6.3 35.5 64.5 

 Female

 1989–90 54.0 44.1 4.3 5.5 13.7 3.8 28.5 71.5 

 1995–96 48.3 41.5 2.5 4.3 22.4* 3.5 25.8 74.2 

 White

 Total

 1989–90 61.4 54.3 4.4 2.7 12.3 1.8 24.5 75.6 

 1995–96 62.7 57.0 3.7 2.1 15.3* 2.7 19.3 80.7 

 Male

 1989–90 57.0 50.6 4.1 2.3 14.8 1.5 26.7 73.3 

 1995–96 57.6 52.7 3.3 1.6 18.0 3.6 20.9 79.1 

 Female

 1989–90 65.6 57.7 4.7 3.2 10.0 2.1 22.4 77.7 

 1995–96 67.1 60.6 3.9 2.5 13.1* 1.9 17.9 82.1 

 Hispanic

 Total

 1989–90 50.6 47.2 2.1 1.3 18.7 2.7 28.1 71.9 

 1995–96 46.8 38.9 5.3 2.6 23.9 5.2 24.2 75.8 

 Male

 1989–90 47.7 47.7 # # 18.1 4.0 30.2 69.8 

 1995–96 43.1 35.4 5.0 2.8 24.9 5.5 26.5 73.5 

 Female

 1989–90 52.6 46.9 3.4 2.2 19.0 1.8 26.7 73.3 

 1995–96 49.4 41.5 5.5 2.4 23.2 4.9 22.5 77.5 

See notes at end of table.

Highest degree completed

No degree, 5-year persistence

4-year institutions
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

26 

percentage point decrease in the percentage who left with no degree and an associated 5 

percentage point increase in the combined completion and persistence rate (from 81 to 86 

percent) was detected. 

Public 4-Year Institutions 

Variations by gender, race/ethnicity, and income in rates of persistence were found among 

students enrolled in public 4-year institutions. For example, as shown in table 7, men’s rate of 

leaving without a degree decreased from 30 to 24 percent, and their combined degree completion 

and persistence rate increased from 70 to 76 percent. While women increased their likelihood of 

remaining enrolled in a 4-year institution from 14 to 19 percent, the net effect of small variations 

in their completion and other persistence rates resulted in no measurable difference in their 

combined completion and persistence rate. 

When examining changes in educational outcomes by race/ethnicity, the combined degree 

completion and persistence rate of White students increased from 73 to 79 percent over time. 

Table 6.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at 4-year institutions, the percentage who

Table 6.—had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education,

Table 6.—by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96—Continued

Total 

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

Family income2

 Low

 1989–90 50.3 41.6 5.2 3.5 15.4 2.2 32.2 67.8 

 1995–96 49.4 41.5 4.7 3.2 20.0* 4.2 26.4* 73.7*

 Middle

 1989–90 59.4 52.4 4.0 2.9 13.7 2.3 24.6 75.4 

 1995–96 57.4 51.1 4.2 2.0 17.7 3.4* 21.6 78.4 

 High

 1989–90 68.5 62.3 3.7 2.4 11.2 1.2 19.2 80.8 

 1995–96 70.1 66.2 2.0* 1.9 14.1 2.0 13.8* 86.2*

#Rounds to zero.

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

2

Calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income distribution;

“Middle” refers to the middle 50 percent; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed definition.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

4-year institutions

No degree, 5-year persistence
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

27 

Table 7.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at public 4-year institutions, the percentage

Table 7.—who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary

Table 7.—education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total 

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

 Total

 1989–90 54.8 46.9 4.7 3.2 16.1 2.3 26.8 73.2 

 1995–96 53.3 46.6 4.1 2.6 20.9* 3.7* 22.1* 77.9*

Gender

 Male

 1989–90 49.4 42.2 4.8 2.4 19.0 2.1 29.6 70.4 

 1995–96 48.6 42.9 3.7 1.9 22.7 4.9* 23.8* 76.2*

 Female

 1989–90 59.5 51.0 4.7 3.8 13.6 2.5 24.4 75.6 

 1995–96 57.4 49.7 4.5 3.2 19.3* 2.7 20.7 79.3 

Race/ethnicity1

 American Indian 

 1989–90 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ 

 1995–96 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ 

 Asian/Pacific Islander

 1989–90 61.2 55.9 1.6 3.8 20.8 0.9 17.1 82.9 

 1995–96 61.9 59.0 2.6 0.3 20.5 4.0 13.7 86.4 

 Black

 Total

 1989–90 44.5 34.8 4.5 5.2 20.8 3.2 31.4 68.6 

 1995–96 38.7 32.9 3.0 2.8 26.0 5.0 30.3 69.7 

 Male

 1989–90 39.4 31.5 4.4 3.5 29.2 1.8 29.6 70.4 

 1995–96 32.7 29.1 2.8 0.8 25.0 6.3 36.0 64.0 

 Female

 1989–90 47.3 36.7 4.5 6.1 16.2 4.1 32.4 67.6 

 1995–96 43.0 35.6 3.1 4.3 26.7* 4.1 26.2 73.8 

 White

 Total

 1989–90 56.1 48.0 5.1 3.0 14.9 2.2 26.7 73.3 

 1995–96 56.6 49.9 4.2 2.6 18.8* 3.3 21.2* 78.8*

 Male

 1989–90 50.5 43.1 5.1 2.3 17.8 2.1 29.6 70.4 

 1995–96 51.3 45.7 3.7 1.9 21.1 4.7 22.9* 77.1*

 Female

 1989–90 61.4 52.6 5.2 3.6 12.2 2.4 24.0 76.0 

 1995–96 61.2 53.5 4.5 3.2 16.9* 2.1 19.8 80.2 

 Hispanic

 Total

 1989–90 45.3 42.3 1.4 1.7 24.1 3.1 27.5 72.5 

 1995–96 40.4 32.3 5.4 2.8 29.0 5.1 25.6 74.4 

 Male

 1989–90 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ 

 1995–96 35.0 27.9 5.1 2.0 30.7 5.8 28.5 71.6 

 Female

 1989–90 52.8 47.9 2.3 2.6 25.0 1.6 20.6 79.4 

 1995–96 44.5 35.6 5.5 3.3 27.6 4.5 23.4 76.6 

See notes at end of table.

Highest degree completed

No degree, 5-year persistence

Public 4-year institutions
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

28 

Trends among income groups in the public 4-year sector revealed gains for low-income 

students, whose combined degree completion and persistence rate increased from 65 to 74 

percent; no such difference could be detected for middle- and high-income students. As was the 

case for female students, among middle-income students, the likelihood of still being enrolled in 

a 4-year institution increased over time, but did not translate into an increase in the combined 

completion and persistence rate. The increase for low-income students brought their rate of 

degree completion and persistence close to that of middle-income students (74 vs. 77 percent), 

but it remained lower than their high-income counterparts in 1995–96 (78 vs. 83 percent). 

Private Not-for-Profit 4-Year Institutions 

In private not-for-profit 4-year institutions, variations in degree completion and persistence 

rates by income levels differed from those observed for students in the public 4-year sector. For 

example, only among high-income students was a significant increase in the combined degree 

completion and persistence rate detected (from 85 to 90 percent) (table 8). Similar changes were 

Table 7.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at public 4-year institutions, the percentage

Table 7.—who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary

Table 7.—education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96—Continued

Total 

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

Family income2

 Low

 1989–90 45.4 35.6 5.9 3.9 17.9 2.1 34.6 65.5 

 1995–96 46.1 37.7 5.0 3.4 23.5* 4.1 26.3* 73.7*

 Middle

 1989–90 53.8 46.6 4.3 3.0 16.7 2.8 26.6 73.4 

 1995–96 51.4 44.6 4.5 2.4 21.6* 4.0 23.0 77.0 

 High

 1989–90 63.3 55.5 4.8 3.0 13.7 1.4 21.6 78.4 

 1995–96 63.4 58.3 2.8 2.4 17.2 2.8 16.7 83.3 

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

2

Calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income distribution;

“Middle” refers to the middle 50 percent; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed definition.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

Public 4-year institutions

No degree, 5-year persistence
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

29 

Table 8.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions,

Table 6.—the percentage who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began

Table 6.—postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total 

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

 Total

 1989–90 71.9 66.6 3.0 2.3 7.4 1.2 19.6 80.4 

 1995–96 69.8 65.3 2.9 1.6 10.7* 2.2* 17.3 82.7 

Gender

 Male

 1989–90 70.3 65.8 2.3 2.2 9.3 0.6 19.8 80.2 

 1995–96 66.0 61.5 2.9 1.6 13.2* 2.3 18.5 81.5 

 Female

 1989–90 73.3 67.3 3.7 2.4 5.6 1.8 19.3 80.7 

 1995–96 72.7 68.3 2.8 1.6 8.8* 2.1 16.5 83.5 

Race/ethnicity1

 American Indian 

 1989–90 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ 

 1995–96 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ 

 Asian/Pacific Islander

 1989–90 81.8 79.5 2.3 # 8.1 3.3 6.9 93.2 

 1995–96 74.9 74.6 0.3 # 10.9 1.9 12.3 87.7 

 Black

 Total

 1989–90 68.8 62.2 3.8 2.8 10.3 3.0 17.9 82.1 

 1995–96 53.1 45.9 2.4 4.8 15.3 3.7 27.9 72.1 

 Male

 1989–90 60.6 55.4 3.9 1.3 17.1 2.8 19.5 80.5 

 1995–96 45.2 34.7 4.4 6.1 14.2 6.3 34.3 65.7 

 Female

 1989–90 73.9 66.4 3.8 3.7 6.1 3.2 16.9 83.1 

 1995–96 56.5 50.7 1.5 4.2 15.7 2.6 25.2 74.8 

 White

 Total

 1989–90 72.0 66.8 2.9 2.3 7.1 1.0 19.9 80.1 

 1995–96 73.2 69.2 2.8 1.2 9.3 1.6 15.9 84.1 

 Male

 1989–90 69.7 65.4 2.2 2.1 9.0 0.4 20.9 79.1 

 1995–96 68.7 65.0 2.6 1.1 12.4 1.6 17.3 82.7 

 Female

 1989–90 74.3 68.3 3.6 2.4 5.4 1.5 18.9 81.1 

 1995–96 76.8 72.6 2.9 1.4 6.8 1.6 14.7 85.3 

 Hispanic

 Total

 1989–90 60.6 56.7 3.3 0.7 8.3 1.9 29.2 70.8 

 1995–96 59.0 51.7 5.2 2.1 14.1 5.3 21.6 78.4 

 Male

 1989–90 71.2 71.2 # # 11.1 1.4 16.4 83.6 

 1995–96 60.1 51.1 4.7 4.3 12.7 4.8 22.5 77.6 

 Female

 1989–90 52.0 44.8 5.9 1.3 6.1 2.2 39.7 60.3 

 1995–96 58.2 52.0 5.4 0.8 15.1 5.7 21.0 79.0 

See notes at end of table.

No degree, 5-year persistence

Highest degree completed

Private not-for-profit 4-year institutions
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

30 

not detected for either middle- or low-income students. Middle-income students, however, did 

increase their likelihood of being enrolled in a 4-year institution (from 7 to 11 percent). 

Although there was an apparent decline among Black students in their rate of bachelor’s 

degree completion (from 62 to 46 percent), readers should be cautioned that this large apparent 

change is not statistically significant. Because this failure to find a measurable difference may be 

related to a small sample size and associated large standard errors, the completion pattern of 

Black students in private not-for-profit 4-year institutions is a potential topic for future studies.13 

Public 2-Year Institutions 

Postsecondary education outcomes for students who began in public 2-year colleges are 

shown in table 9. Since the BPS samples for this type of institution were relatively small, many 

 

13 Studies designed with sufficiently large over-samples of this subgroup would be needed to examine whether there are 

changing patterns of degree completion. 

Table 8.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions,

Table 6.—the percentage who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began

Table 6.—postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Table 6.——Continued

Total 

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

Family income2

 Low

 1989–90 61.6 55.6 3.6 2.5 9.5 2.3 26.6 73.4 

 1995–96 56.6 49.8 4.0 2.8 12.5 4.5 26.4 73.6 

 Middle

 1989–90 71.8 65.4 3.5 2.9 7.0 1.2 20.1 79.9 

 1995–96 68.3 63.1 3.8 1.4 10.5* 2.1 19.1 80.9 

 High

 1989–90 77.1 73.8 2.0 1.4 6.9 0.8 15.2 84.8 

 1995–96 79.2 77.0 0.9 1.3 10.0 1.0 9.9* 90.1*

#Rounds to zero.

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

2

Calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income distribution;

“Middle” refers to the middle 50 percent; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed definition.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

Private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

No degree, 5-year persistence
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

31 

Table 9.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at public 2-year institutions, the percentage

Table 9.—who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary

Table 9.—education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted

 Total

 1989–90 36.7 6.3 17.5 12.9 5.1 9.6 48.6 51.4

 1995–96 32.0 6.9 15.9 9.3* 9.7* 10.5 47.8 52.2

Gender

 Male

 1989–90 33.8 5.6 15.5 12.7 6.7 10.5 49.1 50.9

 1995–96 32.1 6.7 16.6 8.9 12.4* 9.7 45.9 54.1

 Female

 1989–90 39.6 7.0 19.4 13.2 3.7 8.7 48.1 51.9

 1995–96 32.0 7.2 15.2 9.6 7.1* 11.3 49.6 50.4

Race/ethnicity1

 American Indian 

 1989–90 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 1995–96 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 Asian/Pacific Islander

 1989–90 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 1995–96 33.5 3.0 24.4 6.1 18.6 15.5 32.5 67.5

 Black

 Total

 1989–90 31.8 3.1 12.5 16.1 3.6 9.5 55.1 44.9

 1995–96 24.7 1.6 7.3 15.8 5.3 10.3 59.7 40.3

 Male

 1989–90 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 1995–96 34.1 3.3 7.8 23.1 5.1 9.6 51.2 48.8

 Female

 1989–90 28.1 5.6 8.2 14.2 6.5 10.5 54.9 45.1

 1995–96 15.9 # 6.8 9.0 5.5 11.0 67.7 32.3

 White

 Total

 1989–90 37.3 6.6 18.4 12.3 5.3 7.8 49.7 50.3

 1995–96 33.6 8.1 16.5 9.0 10.3 10.4 45.8 54.2

 Male

 1989–90 34.2 6.1 16.0 12.1 7.1 8.5 50.2 49.8

 1995–96 32.0 7.3 17.6 7.2 14.7 8.6 44.6 55.4

 Female

 1989–90 40.3 7.0 20.9 12.5 3.4 7.1 49.2 50.8

 1995–96 34.9 8.8 15.5 10.6 6.3 11.9 46.9 53.2

 Hispanic

 Total

 1989–90 38.0 7.2 15.5 15.2 3.8 18.5 39.8 60.2

 1995–96 27.9 3.3 17.8 6.8 6.7 10.7 54.7 45.3

 Male

 1989–90 26.0 4.1 12.2 9.7 5.2 22.9 45.9 54.1

 1995–96 27.5 4.2 17.3 6.1 3.5 12.0 57.1 42.9

 Female

 1989–90 50.9 10.6 19.1 21.1 2.1 13.7 33.3 66.7

 1995–96 28.3 2.4 18.4 7.5 10.0 9.4 52.3 47.7

See notes at end of table.

No degree, 5-year persistence

Highest degree completed

Public 2-year institutions
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

32 

apparent differences are not statistically significant. However, some changes by gender and 

income levels were detected. As discussed earlier, students who began their postsecondary 

education in public 2-year colleges in 1995–96 were more likely than their counterparts who 

enrolled 6 years earlier to be enrolled in a 4-year institution 5 years after their initial enrollment. 

These students had transferred to a 4-year institution and presumably were still working toward 

their bachelor’s degree. The increase over time in the likelihood of being enrolled in a 4-year 

institution held for men and women, and middle-income students. 

Private for-Profit Institutions 

Table 10 displays the educational outcomes of students who first enrolled in private forprofit institutions. Between 1989–90 and 1995–96, few differences in the rate at which students 

completed or persisted could be statistically determined. However, the results indicate that 

women in the later cohort were more likely than their counterparts in the earlier cohort to be 

enrolled in an institution with programs lasting no longer than 2 years (4 vs. 1 percent) even 

though 5 years had passed since they first enrolled. 

Table 9.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at public 2-year institutions, the percentage

Table 9.—who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary

Table 9.—education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96—Continued

Total

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted

Family income2

 Low

 1989–90 36.4 4.5 16.7 15.3 4.3 8.7 50.6 49.4

 1995–96 35.5 2.6 23.2 9.8 7.9 9.0 47.6 52.4

 Middle

 1989–90 37.3 6.9 17.2 13.3 4.5 8.7 49.5 50.6

 1995–96 32.2 7.5 14.0 10.8 9.0* 11.3 47.4 52.6

 High

 1989–90 35.1 6.9 19.8 8.5 8.4 13.5 42.9 57.1

 1995–96 26.8 11.9 10.7 4.2 12.9 10.6 49.8 50.2

#Rounds to zero.

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

2

Calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income distribution;

“Middle” refers to the middle 50 percent; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed definition.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

Public 2-year institutions

No degree, 5-year persistence
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

33 

Table 10.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at private for-profit institutions, the

Table 10.—percentage who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began

Table 10.—postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted

 Total

 1989–90 59.7 1.6 11.1 46.9 0.7 1.1 38.6 61.4

 1995–96 58.6 1.4 8.2 49.1 1.6 3.2* 36.6 63.4

Gender

 Male

 1989–90 57.5 0.9 11.1 45.6 # 1.7 40.8 59.2

 1995–96 56.8 2.9 10.7 43.2 2.2 2.4 38.6 61.4

 Female

 1989–90 60.7 2.0 11.1 47.6 1.0 0.8 37.5 62.5

 1995–96 59.6 0.6 7.0 52.0 1.2 3.6* 35.6 64.4

Race/ethnicity1

 American Indian 

 1989–90 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 1995–96 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 Asian/Pacific Islander

 1989–90 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 1995–96 ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡

 Black

 Total

 1989–90 44.6 2.6 9.0 33.1 0.8 1.3 53.3 46.8

 1995–96 48.3 0.2 3.9 44.2 2.5 5.1 44.1 55.9

 Male

 1989–90 37.9 # 10.1 27.8 # # 62.1 37.9

 1995–96 33.0 0.9 4.8 27.3 6.3 5.4 55.4 44.6

 Female

 1989–90 47.3 3.6 8.5 35.2 1.1 1.8 49.8 50.2

 1995–96 53.6 # 3.6 50.0 1.2 4.9 40.3 59.8

 White

 Total

 1989–90 62.8 1.4 11.5 49.9 0.8 1.2 35.2 64.8

 1995–96 60.7 1.9 9.6 49.3 1.3 2.2 35.7 64.3

 Male

 1989–90 59.9 1.3 12.3 46.3 # 2.5 37.5 62.5

 1995–96 58.9 4.2 11.9 42.8 0.9 2.1 38.1 61.9

 Female

 1989–90 64.1 1.4 11.2 51.6 1.2 0.6 34.2 65.9

 1995–96 61.7 0.7 8.4 52.7 1.6 2.3 34.5 65.5

 Hispanic

 Total

 1989–90 58.2 2.2 12.4 43.6 # # 41.8 58.3

 1995–96 61.3 0.9 9.5 50.9 0.6 4.2 33.8 66.2

 Male

 1989–90 53.2 # 5.2 48.0 # # 46.8 53.2

 1995–96 65.2 2.0 16.0 47.2 1.9 2.1 30.8 69.3

 Female

 1989–90 61.3 3.6 16.7 41.0 # # 38.7 61.3

 1995–96 59.5 0.4 6.3 52.7 # 5.3 35.3 64.7

See notes at end of table.

No degree, 5-year persistence

Highest degree completed

Private for-profit institutions
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

34 

Completion Gaps 

When looking within each cohort, differences by gender, race/ethnicity, and income levels 

were evident in both surveys. For example, as shown in figure 3, among students who first 

attended 4-year institutions, women were more likely than men to attain a bachelor’s degree, 

White and Asian students were more likely to do so than Black students (54 and 63 vs. 42 

percent for the 1989–90 cohort, and 57 and 65 vs. 37 percent for the 1995–96 cohort), and highincome students were more successful than low-income students in completing a degree (62 vs. 

42 percent in 1989–90 and 66 vs. 42 percent in 1995–96). The question for this study, however, 

is not whether such gaps in achievement exist, but whether the gaps between these groups 

changed over time. When an analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied to detect differential 

changes in degree completion and persistence over time, no significant differences were detected 

in the overall changes in degree completion or combined degree completion and 5-year 

persistence. In other words, there was no statistical evidence to indicate that the overall 

postsecondary attainment gaps between men and women, among racial/ethnic groups, or among 

Table 10.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at private for-profit institutions, the

Table 10.—percentage who had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began

Table 10.—postsecondary education, by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Table 10.——Continued

Total

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed

Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or

completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted

Family income2

 Low

 1989–90 57.4 1.3 10.2 45.9 0.2 1.0 41.4 58.6

 1995–96 54.9 0.4 8.6 45.9 1.1 2.4 41.6 58.4

 Middle

 1989–90 62.7 1.3 12.5 48.9 1.2 1.0 35.2 64.8

 1995–96 61.8 2.0 7.8 52.0 1.8 3.7 32.8 67.2

 High

 1989–90 53.4 4.6 7.4 41.4 # 1.7 44.9 55.1

 1995–96 59.7 2.9 8.9 48.0 2.6 4.6 33.0 67.0

#Rounds to zero.

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic

includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

2

Calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income distribution;

“Middle” refers to the middle 50 percent; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed definition.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

Private for-profit institutions

No degree, 5-year persistence
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

35 

Figure 3.—Among beginning postsecondary students who began at 4-year institutions, the percentage who

Figure 4.—had completed a bachelor’s degree or were still enrolled in a 4-year institution 5 years after they

Figure 4.—enrolled, by gender, race/ethnicity, and family income: 1989–90 and 1995–96

‡Reporting standards not met. (Too few cases.)

1

American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and

Hispanic includes Latino. Race categories exclude Hispanic origin unless specified.

2

Calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income

distribution; “Middle” refers to the middle 50 percent; and “High” refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed

definition.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Gender

53 53 50 49 56 57

13 17 16 19 11 15

0

20

40

60

80

100

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96

Percent

Total Male Female

Race/ethnicity1

54 63 65

42 37 54 57 47 39

22 17 17

18 22

12 15 19 24

‡ 0

20

40

60

80

100

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90

Percent

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96

American 

Indian

Asian/Pacific

Islander

Black White Hispanic

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96

Family income2

42 42 52 51 62 66

15 20 14 18 11 14

0

20

40

60

80

100

1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96 1989–90 1995–96

Percent

Still enrolled in 4-year institution

Completed bachelor’s degree

Low Middle High
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

36 

income groups, had either widened or narrowed between students who first enrolled in 1989–90 

and those who began 6 years later. 

Changes by Risk Profile 

The degree completion and persistence rates for students with and without factors that place 

them at risk of leaving postsecondary education is the focus of this section. Results for students 

who are not at risk are displayed in table 11-A. These students are considered by most to be 

“traditional” college students—those who are dependent14 and enroll in college full time 

immediately after high school graduation. Since traditional students are a relatively homogeneous 

group, the completion and persistence rates in both surveys should be highly comparable. Results 

for students at risk of leaving postsecondary education are found in table 11-B. As was the case 

when enrollment status and risk factors were considered, the reader is reminded that the findings 

from this analysis are entirely descriptive in nature and, while associations between risk factors and 

completion and persistence rates are noted, they should not be interpreted as causal inferences. 

Traditional Students 

The total degree completion rate among traditional beginning postsecondary students dropped 

over time from 63 to 58 percent (table 11-A). This decline was mainly due to the drop in associate’s 

degree completion among students who started in public 2-year colleges (from 32 to 23 percent). 

However, the drop in associate’s degree completion was accompanied by an increase in the 

percentage of community college students who were still enrolled in 4-year institutions (from 8 to 

14 percent). These students had not yet earned a degree, but had transferred to a 4-year institution 

and were presumably still working toward a bachelor’s degree. No difference could be detected 

between the two cohorts, however, in the rate at which traditional students who started in 

community colleges completed a bachelor’s degree in 5 years (14 and 15 percent, respectively). 

In some respects, among traditional students in 4-year institutions, the variations in degree 

completion and persistence rates paralleled those observed for all students. For example, while 

no increase in bachelor’s degree completion was detected, the likelihood that traditional students 

were still enrolled in 4-year institutions increased from 13 to 16 percent. 

Students at Risk 

Students are considered at risk if they enter postsecondary education with one or more 

characteristics that place them at risk of not completing their postsecondary studies. Students at 

 

14 See appendix A glossary under DEPEND2 entry for definition of dependent and independent students. 
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

37 

Table 11-A.—Percentage of beginning postsecondary students identified as traditional college students who

Table 11-A.—had completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary

Table 11-A.—education, by type of first institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total 

 Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

 Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

 completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

 Total

 1989–90 62.8 44.0 12.4 6.4 11.0 1.9 24.3 75.8 

 1995–96 57.7* 43.6 10.0 4.2* 15.0* 4.6* 22.7 77.3 

Type of first institution

 All 4-year

 1989–90 65.8 59.9 3.7 2.3 13.3 1.7 19.1 80.9 

 1995–96 64.9 60.2 3.3 1.4* 16.4* 2.8* 15.9* 84.1*

 Public 4-year

 1989–90 60.1 53.3 4.2 2.6 16.8 2.1 21.0 79.0 

 1995–96 58.6 53.1 3.8 1.8 20.3* 3.5 17.6* 82.4*

 Private not-for-profit 4-year

 1989–90 76.5 72.2 2.6 1.6 6.8 1.1 15.6 84.4 

 1995–96 75.0 71.7 2.6 0.7 10.3* 1.6 13.1 86.9 

 Public 2-year

 1989–90 53.1 14.1 32.1 6.9 8.4 2.9 35.6 64.4 

 1995–96 42.8* 15.2 22.6* 5.1 14.0* 8.0 35.1 64.9 

 For-profit

 1989–90 71.8 1.9 18.9 51.0 0.1 0.1 28.0 72.1 

 1995–96 56.5* 5.0 15.6 35.9* 2.8* 6.7* 33.9 66.1 

 Other2

 1989–90 55.8 7.9 27.0 20.8 3.1 1.4 39.8 60.2 

 1995–96 55.1 9.9 23.3 21.8 3.5 11.7 29.8 70.2 

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

Dependent students who enrolled in postsecondary education full time immediately after high school graduation.

2

Includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-2-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

No degree, 5-year persistence

Traditional students1

Highest degree completed
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

38 

Table 11-B.—Percentage of beginning postsecondary students with any risk characteristics who had

Table 11-B.—completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education,

Table 11-B.—by type of first institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed

 Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or

 completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted

 Total

 1989–90 38.2 9.2 10.1 18.9 5.3 8.2 48.3 51.7

 1995–96 35.9 7.1* 9.9 18.9 8.2* 8.5 47.4 52.6

Institution first enrolled

 All 4-year

 1989–90 44.0 33.5 5.7 4.8 13.1 2.5 40.4 59.6

 1995–96 39.6 29.4 4.9 5.3 19.7* 4.5 36.1 63.9

 Public, 4-year

 1989–90 40.6 29.9 6.1 4.7 14.4 2.8 42.2 57.8

 1995–96 37.2 26.8 5.2 5.2 22.6* 4.4 35.8 64.2

 Private not-for-profit 4-year

 1989–90 53.4 43.9 4.5 5.0 9.5 1.8 35.3 64.7

 1995–96 45.6 35.8 4.1 5.7 12.6 4.9 37.0 63.0

 Public 2-year

 1989–90 30.4 3.3 11.9 15.2 3.9 12.1 53.6 46.4

 1995–96 26.8 2.9 12.6 11.4 7.2* 11.8 54.2 45.8

 All for profits

 1989–90 55.9 1.6 8.7 45.7 0.9 1.3 41.9 58.1

 1995–96 59.1 0.5 6.5 52.2 1.3 2.4 37.2 62.8

 All others2

 1989–90 53.3 1.0 8.3 44.0 5.3 3.7 37.7 62.3

 1995–96 52.5 1.5 7.4 43.5 3.9 3.7 40.0 60.0

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

Risk factors are characteristics associated with not completing postsecondary programs. Students’ risk status was determined when

they first enrolled; students at risk include those who had 1 or more of the following experiences: delayed postsecondary enrollment,

attended part time, worked full time while enrolled, were financially independent, had children or dependents other than a spouse,

were single parents, or did not receive a high school diploma (including dropouts and those who earned GEDs). 

2

Includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-2-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

No degree, 5-year persistence

Any risk factors1

Highest degree completed
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

39 

risk include those who delay their postsecondary enrollment by a year or more, are financially 

independent from their parents, first enroll part time, work full time while enrolled, have children 

or dependents other than a spouse, are single parents, or do not graduate from high school (drop 

out or earn a GED). 

Unlike the pattern for their traditional counterparts, the bachelor’s degree completion rates 

of students with one or more of these risk characteristics declined (from 9 to 7 percent) (table 11-

B). However, like their traditional counterparts, their likelihood of remaining enrolled in a 4-year 

institution after 5 years increased over time (from 5 to 8 percent). As a result, no difference could 

be detected in the combined completion and persistence rate, with about 52 percent of at-risk 

students completing or persisting in both surveys. In other words, the findings for at-risk students 

indicate that students in the later cohort did not demonstrate an increase in overall persistence 

and completion and they required more time in their efforts to complete a bachelor’s degree. 

Examining at-risk students by first institution type showed that the increase in the likelihood of 

students being enrolled in 4-year institutions 5 years after they first started held among students 

who began in public 4-year institutions and public 2-year institutions. 

Institutional Completion Rates and Transfer 

All of the completion and persistence data presented thus far in the report are based on 

system-wide rates regardless of whether students transferred at any time during the course of 

their enrollment. This means that even if students begin in one institution and complete in 

another, they are identified as having persisted and earned a degree. Other rates, such as those 

reported by the college admissions testing organization, ACT, are based on what happened to the 

student in the first institution attended. No distinction is made between students who leave 

postsecondary education altogether and students who transfer to another institution. 

Findings reported by ACT indicate that institutional graduation rates declined between 1992 

and 2002.15 According to their annual survey of about 1,450 institutions, the average 5-year 

bachelor’s degree completion rate was 54 percent in 1994 and 51 percent in 2000.16 However, ACT 

graduation rates are institution based rather than student based and, therefore, not weighted by 

student enrollment. This means equal weight is given to institutions with small and large 

enrollments. The data from the BPS surveys, on the other hand, are student based, and weighted to 

reflect such students nationally. Comparable institutional graduation rates from the BPS surveys 

indicate no significant change for the same years. Yet another source for institutional graduation 

 

15 Data from ACT website: http://www.act.org/news/releases/2002/11-15-02.html. 

16 The remaining students had either left postsecondary education from the first institution or had transferred elsewhere. 
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

40 

rates is the NCAA historical data for Division I institutions. These data indicate no change in 6-year 

graduation rates for the comparable years to BPS and ACT: among full-time students who enrolled 

in Division I institutions in 1989, 57 percent graduated in 6 years, while 58 percent of those who 

entered in 1995 did so.17 Taking all these sources of data into account, there is no clear evidence 

that the institutional graduation rates changed over the time period under study. 

Changes in Transfer Rates 

The difference between institutional graduation rates and system-wide completion and 

persistence rates reflects the frequency of transfer (Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and McCormick 

1996). If institutional graduation rates are roughly 50 to 60 percent as described in the previous 

paragraph, then logically, the other 40 to 50 percent of students leave their first institution 

entirely (i.e., leave postsecondary education) or transfer elsewhere. Unlike institution-based data, 

which cannot distinguish between dropouts and transfers, the BPS surveys track all students 

including transfers. Roughly one-third of students in both BPS cohorts had transferred during the 

course of their enrollment (figure 4). 

 

17 Data from NCAA website: http://www.ncaa.org/grad_rates. 

Figure 4.—Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had ever transferred, by first institution

Figure 5.—type: 1989–90 and 1995–96

*Difference between 1989–90 and 1995–96 is statistically significant (p<0.05).

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

32

42

29

43

28

35

24* 27

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Public 4-year Private

not-for-profit

4-year

Public 2-year

Percent

1989–90 1995–96
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence 

41 

Students who transfer take longer to complete a bachelor’s degree than those who do not 

(Bradburn et al. 2003). If the time spent to complete a bachelor’s degree is increasing, it could 

reflect an increase in transfer rates over time. However, as shown in figure 4, in the aggregate, no 

change in transfer rates overall could be detected over time. Examining transfer rates by first 

institution type did reveal a decline in transfers for one institution type—private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions (from 29 to 24 percent). Thus, not only was no increase in aggregate transfer 

rates detected, the only change appeared to be a decline for those who started in the private notfor-profit 4-year sector. 

Transfer Students’ Completion and Persistence 

Table 12 displays the 5-year completion and persistence rates for students who had 

transferred at any time from their first institution regardless of where they transferred. Among all 

transfers, the total degree completion rate declined over the 6-year time period from 53 to 44 

percent, and the likelihood of still being enrolled in a 4-year institution increased from 13 to 22 

percent. Patterns among transfers from both public and private not-for-profit 4-year institutions 

paralleled these results: transfers from both sectors were less likely to have completed a degree in 

5 years and more likely to be enrolled in 4-year institutions. 

Among transfers who began in public 2-year institutions, those in the later cohort were less 

likely to have earned a vocational certificate (7 vs. 19 percent) and more likely to be enrolled in a 

4-year institution (22 vs. 12 percent). Thus, the trend for transfers from public 2-year colleges 

appeared to be away from acquiring vocational certificates and toward pursuing bachelor’s 

degrees. Among transfers who began in for-profit institutions, the only measurable change was a 

an increase in the percentage still enrolled in less than-4-year institutions from 4 to 17 percent. 

Overall, the analysis did not detect an increase in the rate at which students transferred from 

their first institution. Moreover, for those who began in private not-for-profit 4-year institutions, 

the transfer rate declined. Analyzing the outcomes for transfer students revealed a decline 

between the cohorts in 5-year degree completion rates and an increase in the percentage still 

enrolled in a 4-year institution, reflecting the need for more time in their efforts to complete a 

bachelor’s degree. 
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

42 

Summary 

Table 13 summarizes the changes over time in the 5-year degree completion and 

persistence rates between students who began their postsecondary education in 1989–90 and 

those who started in 1995–96. The up-arrow (↑ symbol) in a cell of the table indicates an 

increase, the down-arrow (↓ symbol) indicates a decrease, while a blank cell indicates no 

Table 12.—Among beginning postsecondary students who had ever transferred, the percentage who

Table 12.—completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary enrollment,

Table 12.—by type of first institution attended and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total 

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed 

 Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or 

 completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted 

 Total

 1989–90 53.2 18.3 17.8 17.0 12.8 7.7 26.4 73.6 

 1995–96 43.7* 17.5 17.0 9.2* 22.3* 9.8* 24.2 75.8 

Type of first institution

 All 4-year

 1989–90 48.1 29.9 9.9 8.4 16.6 6.9 28.4 71.6 

 1995–96 37.1* 23.0 9.1 5.0* 26.3* 11.3* 25.4 74.6 

 Public 4-year

 1989–90 47.7 27.3 11.0 9.4 16.1 8.2 28.1 71.9 

 1995–96 36.0* 20.9 9.6 5.5* 27.9* 12.3* 23.8 76.3 

 Private not-for-profit 4-year

 1989–90 49.1 35.2 7.6 6.4 17.5 4.3 29.1 70.9 

 1995–96 39.3* 27.1 8.1 4.0 22.9* 9.2* 28.6 71.4 

 Public 2-year

 1989–90 54.4 13.6 22.3 18.5 12.1 8.9 24.7 75.3 

 1995–96 45.7 16.1 22.4 7.2* 22.0* 8.3 24.0 76.0 

 For profit

 1989–90 65.4 6.3 17.7 41.4 2.7 3.6 28.3 71.9 

 1995–96 56.2 2.7 6.8* 46.7 6.6 16.7* 20.5 76.2 

 All others1

 1989–90 55.4 8.1 23.3 24.0 9.9 6.1 28.6 76.8 

 1995–96 53.2 12.1 18.2 22.9 14.3 9.4 23.2 71.9 

*Estimate for the 1995–96 cohort is statistically significantly different from the estimate for the 1989–90 cohort (p<0.05). 1

Includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-2-year institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions.

NOTE: Detail may not sum to totals because of rounding. Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students

enrolled. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

No degree, 5-year persistence

Transfer students
Table 13.—Summary findings for changes in degree attainment, 5-year persistence, and combined 5-year attainment and persi

Table 13.—beginning postsecondary students who first enrolled in 1989–90 and in 1995–96

 Total Public 4-year Private not-for-profit 4-year Public 2-year 

Still Com- Still Com- Still Com- Still Com- 

Total enrolled pleted Total enrolled pleted Total enrolled pleted Total enrolled pleted 

com- at or still com- at or still com- at or still com- at or still 

pleted 4-year enrolled pleted 4-year enrolled pleted 4-year enrolled pleted 4-year enrolled 

 Total ↓↑ ↑↑ ↑ ↑ Gender Male ↑ ↑↑ ↑  Female ↓↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ 

Race/ethnicity1

 American Indian  Asian/Pacific Islander Black White ↑ ↑↑ ↑ HispanicFamily income2 Low ↑ ↑↑ Middle ↑↑ ↑ High [1] ↑ ↑Risk profile No risk (traditional) ↓↑ ↑  At risk [4] ↑ ↑Transfer students ↓↑ ↓↑ ↓↑ [2] ↑

↑ Increased over time (p<0.05).↓ Decreased over time (p<0.05).[1] Significant decline in associate’s degree, but not total.[2] Significant decline in certificates, but not total. [3] Significant increase in bachelor’s degree, but not total.[4] Signficant decline in bachelor’s degree, but not total.

1American Indian includes Alaska Native, Black includes African American, Pacific Islander includes Native Hawaiian, and Hispanic includes Latino. Race c

origin unless specified.

2Calculated separately for dependent and independent students. “Low” refers to the bottom 25 percent of the income distribution; “Middle” refers to the middl

refers to the upper 25 percent. See appendix A for detailed definition.SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/9

Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).
Changes in Degree Completion and 5-Year Persistence

44 

statistical change. For each group, changes over time are displayed for three measures: total 

degree completion, enrollment in a 4-year institution if no degree (for those who began in forprofit institutions, enrollment in a 2-year or less institution is displayed), and the combined 5-

year degree completion and persistence rates. 

The most obvious change evident in the table is the increase in the likelihood of students 

still being enrolled in a 4-year institution. These are students who had not completed a degree but 

were still enrolled 5 years after they began their postsecondary studies. This finding was evident 

for students who began in public 4-year institutions, private not-for-profit 4-year institutions, and 

public 2-year colleges. Does the result simply mean that students are taking longer to complete 

bachelor’s degrees? One could draw such a conclusion if a corresponding decline in completion 

rates was observed. However, no aggregate differences in bachelor’s degree completion rates 

were detected at any of the three types of institutions (tables 7–9), implying that given more time, 

the bachelor’s degree completion rate might well go up. 

When the data were broken out by gender, race/ethnicity, income, risk status, and transfer 

status, there were specific groups of students who experienced losses in either degree completion 

or combined degree completion and persistence. Specifically, the bachelor’s degree completion 

rate among at-risk students declined, as did the total degree completion for transfer students. 

Nearly all the students who experienced gains over time in the combined measure of degree 

completion and persistence were among those who first enrolled in public 4-year institutions. 

These students included males, White students, and students from the lowest income group. The 

only other group for whom a significant gain in the combined degree completion and persistence 

rate was detected was for students in the highest income group who first enrolled in private notfor-profit 4-year institutions. 
45 

Conclusions 

It is not entirely clear why the 5-year persistence rate of beginning postsecondary students, 

especially those who entered public 4-year institutions, increased over the period studied in this 

report. This increase could be related to many factors. For example, both the composition of the 

student population and the economy changed during this time. Between 1989–90 and 1995–96, 

more students enrolled in college for the first time and the demographic profile of these students 

changed, with Black, Hispanic, and low-income students making up a greater proportion of the 

student population. Such students have historically been underrepresented in postsecondary 

education and often face financial barriers or other hardships in completing a degree. On the 

other hand, students’ educational expectations as well as their parents’ education levels were 

somewhat higher, characteristics typically associated with higher rates of persistence and 

attainment. These patterns may be opposing forces on educational outcomes and may account, on 

one hand, for the greater percentage of students persisting, and on the other, for the increased 

time necessary to complete a bachelor’s degree. Further complicating the picture are institutional 

factors that may be associated both with changes in the student population over time—such as 

policies to admit and retain nontraditional students—and with enrolled students’ completion rates 

(Astin 1993; Bowen and Bok 1998). 

The increase in persistence rates may also be related to students’ increased reliance on 

student loans to help pay for postsecondary education. One-half of the students who started in 

1995–96 had borrowed during their enrollment to help finance their education, compared with 

one-third of their counterparts who started 6 years earlier. Therefore, students in the later cohort 

were more likely to have accrued loan debt, thereby increasing the potential financial burden of 

leaving with no degree. 

There were also changes in the economy between the years when each cohort of students 

would have entered the labor market. Students who began their postsecondary education in 

1989–90 and who were still enrolled in college 5 years later (1994) encountered a prosperous 

economy with plentiful job opportunities (Schwenk and Pfuntner 2003). It is possible that those 

who had not yet finished their degree may have been attracted to the growing job market 

especially in the high-tech industry and thought they could leave school and return later to finish 

their degree. On the other hand, students who began college in 1995–96 and who were still 

enrolled 5 years later (2000) faced an economy in the beginning stages of a recession and a 
Conclusions

46 

tightening job market (Martel and Langdon 2001). With fewer job options and more debt, these 

students may have been less inclined to take a break from their studies and leave without a 

degree. 

Finally, it should be noted that while the overall results found no evidence of a decline in 

bachelor’s degree completion between the two cohorts, certain subgroups of students did not fare 

as well over the period under study. In particular, at-risk students, who represent a large segment 

of the beginning student population, experienced losses in the rate at which they completed 

bachelor’s degrees in 5 years. 
47 

References 

Adelman, C. (1999). Answers in the Toolbox: Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and 

Bachelor’s Degree Attainment (PLLI 1999–8021). U.S. Department of Education. 

Washington, DC: Office of Educational Research and Improvement. 

Adelman, C. (2004). Principal Indicators of Student Academic Histories in Postsecondary 

Education, 1972–2000. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education. 

Adelman, C., Daniel, B., and Berkovits, I. (2003). Postsecondary Attainment, Attendance, 

Curriculum, and Performance: Selected Results From the NELS:88/2000 Postsecondary 

Education Transcript Study (PETS), 2000 (NCES 2003–394). U.S. Department of 

Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government 

Printing Office. 

Astin, A.W. (1993). What Matters in College? Four Critical Years Revisited. San Francisco: 

Jossey-Bass. 

Barton, P.E. (2002). The Closing of the Education Frontier? Princeton, NJ: Educational Testing 

Service, Policy Information Center. 

Bean, J.P., and Metzner, B.S. (1985). A Conceptual Model of Non-traditional Undergraduate 

Student Attrition. Review of Educational Research, 55(4): 485–540. 

Berkner, L. (2000). Trends in Undergraduate Borrowing: Federal Student Loans in 1989–90, 

1992–93, and 1995–96 (NCES 2000–151). U.S. Department of Education, National 

Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 

Berkner, L., He, S., and Cataldi, E.F. (2002). Descriptive Summary of 1995–96 Beginning 

Postsecondary Students: Six Years Later (NCES 2003–151). U.S. Department of 

Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government 

Printing Office. 

Berkner, L., Horn, L., and Clune, M. (2000). Descriptive Summary of 1995–96 Beginning 

Postsecondary Students: Three Years Later (NCES 2000–154). U.S. Department of 

Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government 

Printing Office. 

Berkner, L.K., Cuccaro-Alamin, S., and McCormick, A.C. (1996). Descriptive Summary of 

1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students: Five Years Later (NCES 96–155). U.S. 

Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: 

U.S. Government Printing Office. 
References

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Bowen, W.G., and Bok, D. (1998). The Shape of the River: Long-Term Consequences of 

Considering Race in College and University Admissions. Princeton, NJ: Princeton 

University Press. 

Bradburn, E.M., Berger, R., Li, X., Peter, K., and Rooney, K. (2003). A Descriptive Summary of 

1999–2000 Bachelor’s Degree Recipients 1 Year Later, With an Analysis of Time to 

Degree (NCES 2003–165). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education 

Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 

The College Board. (1998). Trends in College Pricing. Washington, DC: The College Entrance 

Examination Board. 

The College Board. (2000). Trends in Student Aid: 2000. Washington, DC: Author. 

Fitzgerald, R., Berkner, L., Horn, L., Choy, S., and Hoachlander, G. (1994). Descriptive 

Summary of 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students Two Years After Entry (NCES 

94–386). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. 

Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 

Horn, L.J., and Premo, M.D. (1995). Profile of Undergraduates in U.S. Postsecondary Education 

Institutions: 1992–93, With an Essay on Undergraduates at Risk (NCES 96–237). U.S. 

Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: 

U.S. Government Printing Office. 

Martel, J., and Langdon, D.S. (2001, February). The Job Market in 2000: Slowing Down as the 

Year Ended. Monthly Labor Review. Washington, DC: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Nuñez, A.-M., and Cuccaro-Alamin, S. (1998). First-Generation Students: Undergraduates 

Whose Parents Never Enrolled in Postsecondary Education (NCES 98–082). U.S. 

Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: 

U.S. Government Printing Office. 

Phipps, R.A., Harrison, K.V., and Merisotis, J.P. (1999). Students at Private, For-Profit 

Institutions (NCES 2000–175). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for 

Education Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 

Schwenk, A.E., and Pfuntner, J.N. (2003). Compensation in the Later Part of the Century. 

Washington, DC: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved April 7, 2004, 

http://www.bls.gov/opub/cwc/archive/fall2001art6.pdf. 

Tinto, V. (1993). Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes and Cures of Student Attrition (2nd 

ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 

U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2000). Digest of 

Education Statistics 1999 (NCES 2000–031). Washington, DC: U.S. Government 

Printing Office. 
49 

Appendix A—Glossary 

The glossary describes the variables used in this report. The variables were taken directly from the BPS:90/94 and 

BPS:96/01 Data Analysis Systems (DAS), NCES software applications that generate tables from the BPS data. 

Appendix B contains a description of the DAS software. In the index below, the variables are listed in the order they 

appear in the report. The glossary items are in alphabetical order by 1989–90 variable name. 

GLOSSARY INDEX

INSTITUTION AND ENROLLMENT CHARACTERISTICS 

First type of first institution attended 

1989–90................................................... OFCO8990 

1995–96......................................................ITNPSAS 

Attendance intensity 

1989–90......................................................ATTEND 

1995–96....................................................ATTEND2 

Highest degree expected 

1989–90................................................... EXEDCOL 

1995–96................................................. EPHDEGY1 

STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS WHEN FIRST ENROLLED

Gender 

1989–90................................................... H_GENDR 

1995–96 ................................................SBGENDER 

Age when first enrolled 

1989–90..............................................................AGE 

1995–96..............................................................AGE 

Race/ethnicity 

1989–90.................................................... BPSRACE 

1995–96.................................................. SBRACECI 

Income relative to poverty levels 

1989–90................................................. PCTPVRTY 

1995–96..................................................... SFPOV94 

Family income 

1989–90................................................. FAMINCPR 

1995–96.....................................................PCTALL2 

Parental education 

1989–90...................................................... RPARED 

1995–96..................................................... PBEDHI3 

Risk status 

1989–90.................................................. RISKNDX2 

1995–96.................................................. RISKNDX2 

Delayed postsecondary enrollment 

1989–90................................................ DELAYENR 

1995–96...................................................ENDELAY 

Dependency status when first enrolled 

1989–90....................................................DEPEND2 

1995–96.................................................. SBDEP1Y1 

Number of dependents when first enrolled 

1989–90 .............................................. NUMDEPND 

1995–96 ................................................... SBDPNY1 

Single parent status when first enrolled 

1989–90 ..................................................SINGLPAR 

1995–96 ..................................................SBSINGY1 

Hours worked while enrolled in 

1989–90 ....................................................... WHRS4 

1995–96 ................................................. J1HOURY1 

HIGH SCHOOL COMPLETION STATUS AND REMEDIAL 

EDUCATION IN FIRST YEAR OF COLLEGE

High school diploma or equivalency status 

1989–90 .....................................................H_HSDIP 

1995–96 .................................................HSDIPLOM 

Took remedial courses 

1989–90 .................................................REMEDIAL 

1995–96 ................................................. RMANYY1 

Took remedial math in 

1989–90 .................................................REMMATH 

1995–96 ......................................................SIMATH 

Took remedial reading in 

1989–90 ..................................................REMREAD 

1995–96 .......................................................SIREAD 

Took remedial writing in 

1989–90 ................................................REMWRITE 

1995–96 ....................................................... SIWRIT 

FINANCIAL AID

Total loan in first year 

1989–90 .................................................. TOTLOAN 

1995–96 .................................................. TOTLOAN 

Received any loans throughout enrollment 

1989–90 ..................................................GOTLOAN 

1995–96 .................................................. AHANYL6 

Total grant in first year 

1989–90 ..................................................... TOTGRT 

1995–96 ..................................................... TOTGRT 
Appendix A—Glossary 

50 

Received any grants throughout enrollment 

1989–90................................................GOTGRANT 

1995–96.....................................................AHGRAN 

DEGREE COMPLETION AND PERSISTENCE

Highest degree completed or enrollment status after 5 years 

1989–90................................................. ATTENRST 

1995–96..................................................PRENRL2A 

Bachelor’s degree completion at first institution 

1989–90 ..................................................... PERABA 

1995–96 ................................................ PROUTYX5 

Ever transferred 

1989–90 .....................................................TRANTO 

1995–96 .................................................. ITTRSE2B 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

51 

Age when first enrolled AGE (1989–90) AGE (1995–96)

Student’s age as of December 31 of 1989 for 1989–90 cohort and 1995 for 1995–96 cohort. 

18 years or younger 

19 years 

20–23 years 

24–29 years 

30 years or older 

Attendance intensity ATTEND (1989–90) ATTEND2 (1995–96) 

Indicates the student’s attendance status during the first term. 

Full-time 

Part-time 

Degree attainment or enrollment status ATTENRST (1989–90) PRENRL2A (1995–96)

Indicates the highest degree the student attained after 5 years or the level of the institution in which the student is still 

enrolled if no degree had been attained. The last follow-up for BPS:90/94 was conducted 5 years after first 

enrollment, whereas, the last follow-up for BPS:96/01 took place 6 years after first enrollment. However, for both 

cohorts, cumulative attainment and persistence was measured at the end of each academic year. An academic year is 

defined as months from July through June of the academic year, inclusive. For BPS:96/01, the outcome for 2000, or 

5 years after first enrollment, was used to compare with the final 5-year outcome BPS:90/94. In both cohorts, those 

who had never attained, but were enrolled in either a 4-year or less-than-4-year institution, had records of enrollment 

for the academic year under consideration. For those who attained more than one credential, the highest degree is 

recorded. 

Total completed (1) + (2) + (3) 

Bachelor’s degree (1) Attained bachelor’s degree 

Associate’s degree (2) Attained associate’s degree 

Certificate (3) Attained certificate 

Still enrolled at 4-year (4) Never attained, enrolled at 4-year 

Still enrolled at 2-year or less (5) Never attained, enrolled at less-than-4-year 

No degree, not enrolled (6) Never attained, not enrolled 

Total completed or persisted (1) + (2) + (3) + (4) + (5) 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

52 

Race/ethnicity BPSRACE (1989–90) SBRACECI (1995–96) 

Categories that classify students based on reported race and Hispanic ethnicity. In 1995–96 the option of choosing 

the category “Other” was added to the survey, which was selected by 0.3 percent of respondents. These students 

were excluded when comparing race/ethnicity distributions between the two cohorts, but they were included in all 

other estimates. 

White, non-Hispanic A person having origins in any of the original people of Europe, 

North Africa, or the Middle East (except those of Hispanic origin). 

Black, non-Hispanic A person having origins in any of the Black racial groups of Africa, 

not of Hispanic origin. 

Hispanic A person of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, Central or South 

American, or other Spanish culture or origin, regardless of race. 

Asian/Pacific Islander A person having origins in any of the peoples of the Far East, 

Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, or Pacific Islands. This 

includes people from China, Japan, Korea, the Philippine Islands, 

Samoa, India, and Vietnam. 

American Indian/Alaska Native A person having origins in any of the original peoples of North 

America and who maintains cultural identification through tribal 

affiliation or community recognition.

Delayed enrollment (length of delay after high school) DELAYENR (1989–90) ENDELAY (1995–96) 

Indicates whether or not student enrolled in postsecondary education in the same calendar year as he or she 

graduated from high school. 

Did not delay 

Delayed enrollment 

Dependency status when first enrolled DEPEND2 (1989–90) SBDEP1Y1 (1995–96) 

Student dependency status for federal financial aid. Students were considered independent if any of the following 

applied: 

a) Student was 24 years or older as of 12/31 in the year enrolled.1

b) Student was a veteran of the U.S. Armed Forces 

c) Student was married 

d) Student was an orphan or ward of the court 

e) Student had legal dependents, other than spouse 

f) Student was enrolled in a graduate or professional program beyond a bachelor’s degree 

Dependent 

Independent 

 

1 In 1989–90 students under age 24 could have been considered independent if they could demonstrate sufficient income and 

were not claimed as an income tax exemption by their parents in 1988 and 1989. This provision was removed a year later. 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

53 

Highest degree ever expected EXEDCOL (1989–90) EPHDEGY1 (1995–96)

The highest level of education students expected to complete in postsecondary education. 

Less than a bachelor’s degree 

Bachelor’s degree 

Advanced degree 

Don’t know (asked only in 1995–96) 

Family income FAMINCPR (1989–90) PCTALL2 (1995–96) 

Indicates income levels for all students as a percentage distribution. Calculated separately for dependent and 

independent students; each ranking thus compares the student only to other students of the same dependency status. 

Low Income in the lowest 25 percent of the distribution. 

Middle Income in the middle 50 percent of the distribution. 

High Income in the highest 25 percent of the distribution. 

Received student grant GOTGRAN (1989–90) AHGRAN (1995–96) 

Indicates whether or not student received any grants throughout their undergraduate enrollment. 

Yes 

No 

Received student loan GOTLOAN (1989–90) AHANYL6 (1995–96) 

Indicates whether or not student received any loans throughout their undergraduate enrollment. 

Yes 

No 

Gender H_GENDR (1989–90) SBGENDER (1995–96) 

Male 

Female
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

54 

High school diploma or equivalency status H_HSDIP (1989–90) HSDIPLOM (1995–96) 

Indicates type of high school degree reported by sample institution or, if not available, by student. Response to CATI 

question in 1989–90: What type of high school diploma did you receive? and to CATI question in 1995–96: Did you 

receive a high school diploma, pass a General Educational Development (GED) test, or receive a high school 

completion certificate? In the analysis GED and certificate of completion were combined. 

High school diploma Student graduated from high school. 

GED or equivalent Student did not graduate from high school but passed the General 

Educational Development (GED) exam or high school equivalent, 

administered by the American Council on Education. 

Certificate of completion Student received a certificate of completion. 

No high school degree/certificate Student neither graduated from high school nor earned a GED or 

certificate of completion. 

Number of dependents when first enrolled NUMDEPND (1989–90) SBDPNY1 (1995–96)

Number of dependents (excluding spouse). 

None 

One or more 

Type of first institution OFCO8990 (1989–90) ITNPSAS (1995–96)

4-year Can award bachelor’s degrees or higher, including institutions that 

award doctorate degrees and first-professional degrees. Firstprofessional includes chiropractic, pharmacy, dentistry, podiatry, 

medicine, veterinary medicine, optometry, law, osteopathic 

medicine, and theology. 

 Public A postsecondary education institution supported primarily by 

public funds and operated by publicly elected or appointed officials 

who control the programs and activities. 

 Private not-for-profit A postsecondary institution that is controlled by an 

 independent governing board and incorporated under Section 

501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. 

Public 2-year Public institution that does not confer bachelor’s degrees, but does 

provide 2-year programs that result in a certificate or an associate’s 

degree, or 2-year programs that fulfill part of the requirements for a 

bachelor’s degree or higher at 4-year institutions. 

Private, for-profit A postsecondary institution that is privately owned and operated as 

a profit-making enterprise. Includes career colleges and proprietary 

institutions. Includes all levels (less-than-2-year, 2-year, 4-year). 

Other Includes private not-for-profit 2-year and less-than-2-year 

institutions and public less-than-2-year institutions. 
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

55 

Bachelor’s degree completion at first institution PERABA (1989–90) PROUTYX5 (1995–96) 

Bachelor’s degree completion at the first institution at the end of 5 years. Used to compare to ACT and NCAA 

graduation rates. 

Income relative to poverty level PCTPVRTY (1989–90) SFPOV94 (1995–96) 

Categorizes total family income as reported on financial aid applications, by family size in relation to federal poverty 

level income thresholds. The calculation for dependent students is based on parents’ income. The calculation for 

independent students is based on their own income. Income thresholds are based on the Census Bureau’s poverty 

levels in the year preceding enrollment (1988 or 1994). A value of 100 or less means the family is at or below the 

poverty income level. For this analysis, income levels were categorized as indicated below. 

Below 125 percent 

125 to 449 percent 

450 percent or more 

Took remedial courses REMEDIAL (1989–90) RMANYY1 (1995–96) 

Respondent reported taking one or more remedial instruction or developmental courses in reading, writing, math, 

study skills, or English language skills during the first year enrolled. 

Took remedial math REMMATH (1989–90) SIMATH (1995–96) 

Took remedial reading REMREAD (1989–90) SIREAD (1995–96) 

Took remedial writing REMWRITE (1989–90) SIWRIT (1995–96) 

Postsecondary risk status RISKNDX2 (1989–90, and 1995–96)

Represents an index of risk based on the seven possible characteristics related to lower persistence and attainment. 

1) Older than typical age for year in school (i.e., delayed enrollment) 

2) Attend on a part-time basis 

3) Financially independent based on financial aid eligibility (see entry for DEPEND2 for detailed 

definition) 

4) Have dependents other than spouse 

5) Single parent status 

6) High school dropout, GED or high school equivalency certificate recipient 

7) Work full-time while enrolled (35 hours or more) 

For this analysis, the categories were aggregated as follows: 

Any 

One to two 

Three or more
Appendix A—Glossary 

DAS Variable 

56 

Parental education RPARED (1989–90) PBEDHI3 (1995–96)

The highest level of education completed by the student’s mother or father, whoever had the highest level. The 

variable was aggregated to the following categories in this report: 

High school diploma or less Students’ parents earned a high school diploma or equivalent 

or did not complete high school. 

Some postsecondary education Students’ parents attended some postsecondary education, but 

did not earn a bachelor’s degree. 

Bachelor’s degree or higher Students’ parents attained a bachelor’s or advanced degree. 

Single parent status when first enrolled SINGLPAR (1989–90) SBSINGY1 (1995–96)

Indicates whether the student had dependents and was not married. 

Not a single parent 

Single parent 

Total grants TOTGRT (1989–90, and 1995–96) 

Total grants received in the first year of enrollment. Includes grants from all sources. “Yes” is defined as any amount 

greater than zero. 

No, did not receive grants 

Yes, received grants 

Total loans (except PLUS) TOTLOAN (1989–90, and 1995–96) 

Total amount of all loans, except PLUS: federal, state, institutional, and private sector received in the first year of 

enrollment. “Yes” is defined as any amount greater than zero. 

No, did not receive loans 

Yes, received loans 

Transferred TRANTO (1989–90) ITTRESE2B (1995–96) 

Variables identify destination of first transfer. For this analysis, transfers were aggregated into one group to identify 

those who had ever transferred. 

Worked while enrolled WHRS4 (1989–90) J1HOURY1 (1995–96) 

WHRS4 is the average number of hours worked in October 1989, and J1HOURY1 is the number of hours students 

reported working when directly asked how many hours they typically worked per week while enrolled. 

Did not work 

Worked part time (1 to 34 hours) 

Worked full time (35 or more hours)
57 

Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study 

The Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS) is based on a sample of 

students who enrolled in postsecondary education in institutions located in the 50 states, the 

District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico for the first time in a specific academic year. Two BPS 

surveys have been conducted thus far; one followed students who first began their postsecondary 

education in 1989–90 (BPS:90/94) and a second followed students who began in 1995–96 

(BPS:96/01). Unlike other NCES longitudinal surveys (such as the National Education 

Longitudinal Study of 1988), which follow age-specific cohorts of secondary school students, the 

BPS sample includes nontraditional students who have delayed their postsecondary education 

due to financial need or family responsibilities, or other reasons. Students who began their 

postsecondary studies before the base year of the study, or who stopped out, and then returned to 

their studies in the base year were not included, nor were students who were still enrolled in high 

school. Eligible students for the BPS samples were identified from participants in the two 

corresponding National Postsecondary Student Aid Studies (NPSAS:90 and NPSAS:96). 

The BPS survey samples, while representative and statistically accurate, are not simple 

random samples. Instead, the samples are selected using a more complex three-step procedure 

with stratified samples and differential probabilities of selection at each level. First, 

postsecondary institutions are selected within geographic strata. Once institutions are organized 

by zip code and state, they are further stratified by institution control (i.e., public; private not-forprofit; or private for-profit) and highest degree offering (less-than-2-year; 2-year to 3-year; 4-year 

non-doctorate-granting; and 4-year doctorate-granting). 

A computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) was conducted with BPS students twice 

after the Base Year survey. The final follow-up survey for BPS:90/94 took place about 5 years 

after college entry (in 1994), while the final follow-up survey for BPS:96/01 took place 6 years 

after (in 2001). The CATI collected information concerning enrollment, program completion, 

education financing, employment, and family formation; graduate school access and enrollment; 

and civic participation. 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

58 

The BPS survey data underwent several data quality evaluations, which included both 

online data editing procedures and post-data collection editing. The online data editing ensured 

that the data collected fell within legitimate ranges and where feasible, items were cross-checked 

against other related items. After data collection, the data were cleaned and edited using several 

steps including verification of one-way frequencies for each item, cross-tabulations of related 

items, standard variable recoding and formatting (such as dates), the determination of outlier 

values, and logical imputations. After the CATI data were cleaned and edited, composite 

variables for specific data analyses were created, which were subjected to similar cleaning and 

checking procedures. 

1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study 

BPS:90/94 survey followed approximately 9,000 students from the 1989–90 National 

Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:90) sample who were identified as first-time 

beginning (FTB) students in academic year 1989–90.1 The unweighted BPS:90/94 response rate 

is 91.4 percent. The weighted response rate, using the NPSAS:90 analysis weights, is 91.0 

percent. Among respondents, about 10 percent of sample members did not have sufficiently 

detailed enrollment histories to allow for classification in the persistence variables used in this 

report.2 The weight used for analysis of BPS:90/94 data was BPS94AWT, which includes 

students who participated in both the first and last followup surveys. The unweighted sample 

sizes (rounded, by institution type) of respondents used in this analysis are shown in table B-2.

1995–96 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study 

The Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS) is based on a sample of 

students who were enrolled in postsecondary education for the first time in 1995–96 and 

participated in the 1995–96 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:96). This BPS 

study began with a sample of approximately 12,000 students who were identified in NPSAS:96 

as having entered postsecondary education for the first time in 1995–96. 

The first follow-up of the BPS cohort (BPS:96/98) was conducted in 1998, approximately 3 

years after these students first enrolled. Approximately 10,300 of the students who first began in 

1995–96 were located and interviewed in the 1998 follow-up for an overall weighted response 

rate of 79.8 percent. This response rate includes those who were nonrespondents in 1996; among 

 

1 Eligibility status could not be determined for about 6 percent of the BPS:90/94 sample. 

2 For more information on BPS:90/94, consult Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study Second Follow-up 

(BPS:90/94) Final Technical Report (NCES 96–153) (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for 

Education Statistics, 1996). 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

59 

the NPSAS:96 respondents the response rate was 85.9 percent.3 The second follow-up of the BPS 

cohort (BPS:1996/2001) was conducted in 2001, six years following college entry. All 

respondents to the first follow-up, as well as a subsample of nonrespondents in 1998, were 

eligible to be interviewed. Over 9,100 students were located and interviewed. The weighted 

response rate was 83.6 percent overall, but was somewhat higher among respondents to both the 

1996 and the 1998 interviews (87.4 percent).4 

Even though rates of degree completion and persistence after 6 years are available for 

BPS:96/01, variables measuring 5-year degree completion and persistence were created for 

comparability to the earlier BPS survey (BPS:90/94), which ended 5 years after students first 

enrolled. Table B-1 shows the rates of completion and persistence after 5 years and 6 years for 

BPS:96/01. The weight used for the analysis of data from the BPS:96/01 was B01LWT2, which 

includes students who responded to both the first and last followup surveys. The unweighted 

sample sample sizes (rounded, by institution type) of respondents used in this analysis are shown 

in table B-2.

Bias Analysis 

Nonresponse among cohort members causes bias in survey estimates when the outcomes of 

respondents and nonrespondents are shown to be different. A bias analysis was conducted on the 

2001 BPS:96/01 survey results to determine if any variables were significantly biased due to 

nonresponse. Considerable information was known from the 1996 and 1998 surveys for 

nonrespondents to the 2001 interviews, and nonresponse bias could be estimated using variables 

with this known information. Weight adjustments were applied to the BPS:96/01 sample to 

reduce any bias found due to unit nonresponse. After the weight adjustments, some variables 

were found to reflect zero bias, and for the remaining variables the bias did not differ 

significantly from zero. This analysis was performed on variables found on the frame where the 

true value is known for both respondents and nonrespondents. For other variables collected in the 

survey, where data is available only for respondents, it is not known whether the weight 

adjustments completely eliminate bias. 

 

3 For more information on the BPS:96/98 survey, consult Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study First Follow-up 

1996–98, Methodology Report (NCES 2000–157) (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for 

Education Statistics, 2000). 

4 For more information on the BPS:96/01 survey, consult Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study:1996–2001 

Methodology Report (NCES 2002–171) (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education 

Statistics, 2002). 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

60 

Table B-1.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who had completed a degree or were

Table B-1.—still enrolled 5 years (2000) or 6 years (2001) after they began postsecondary education, by first

Table B-1.—institution type attended: 1995–96

 No degree, 5-year persistence

Still Still enrolled No degree,

Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not

Estimates degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled

 Total

 2000 25.1 9.9 11.7 11.6 6.6 35.2

 2001 28.8 10.0 12.0 8.8 5.6 34.8

Type of first institution

 All 4-year

 2000 53.4 3.7 2.3 17.2 3.2 20.4

 2001 58.8 3.8 2.5 11.8 2.6 20.5

 Public 4-year

 2000 46.6 4.1 2.6 20.9 3.7 22.1

 2001 53.0 4.4 2.8 14.5 2.8 22.5

 Private not-for-profit 4-year

 2000 65.3 2.9 1.6 10.7 2.2 17.3

 2001 68.8 2.8 1.8 7.1 2.3 17.2

 Public 2-year

 2000 6.9 15.9 9.3 9.7 10.5 47.8

 2001 10.3 15.7 9.7 8.4 9.1 46.9

 For-profit

 2000 1.4 8.2 49.1 1.6 3.2 36.6

 2001 1.6 8.7 49.6 1.1 2.3 36.7

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, all variables refer to the first time students enrolled.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

Table B-2.—Rounded unweighted sample sizes for the two BPS cohorts, by first institution type

BPS:90/94 BPS:96/01

 Total 6,000 9,000

Institution first enrolled

 Public, 4-year 1,600 4,000

 Private not-for-profit 4-year 2,200 2,600

 Public 2-year 700 1,100

 All for-profits 1,000 900

 Other 500 400

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

61 

Item Response Bias 

All the variables used in this report and defined in appendix A had item response rates 

above 85 percent. Therefore, a bias analysis for individual survey items was not necessary. 

Accuracy of Estimates 

The statistics in this report are estimates derived from a sample. Two broad categories of 

error occur in such estimates: sampling and nonsampling errors. Sampling errors occur because 

observations are made only on samples of students, not entire populations. Nonsampling errors 

occur not only in sample surveys but also in complete censuses of entire populations. 

Nonsampling errors can be attributed to a number of sources: inability to obtain complete 

information about all students in all institutions in the sample (some students or institutions 

refused to participate, or students participated but answered only certain items); ambiguous 

definitions; differences in interpreting questions; inability or unwillingness to give correct 

information; mistakes in recording or coding data; and other errors of collecting, processing, 

sampling, and imputing missing data. 

Data Analysis System 

The estimates presented in this report were produced using the NCES Data Analysis 

Systems (DAS) for the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, Second Follow-up 

for the two BPS surveys (BPS:90/04 and BPS:96/01). The DAS software makes it possible for 

users to specify and generate their own tables. With the DAS, users can replicate or expand upon 

the tables presented in this report; the table parameter files (tpf) that produced these tables are 

available to users on the NCES Web site. In addition to the table estimates, the DAS calculates 

proper standard errors6 and weighted sample sizes for these estimates. For example, table B-3 

contains standard errors that corresponds to table 5-B. If the number of valid cases is too small to 

produce a reliable estimate (less than 30 cases), the DAS prints the message “low-N” instead of 

the estimate. All standard errors for estimates presented in this report can be viewed at 

http://nces.ed.gov/das/library/reports.asp. 

In addition to tables, the DAS can also produce a correlation matrix of selected variables to 

be used for linear regression models. Included in the output with the correlation matrix are the 

design effects (DEFTs) for each variable in the matrix. Since statistical procedures generally 

 

6 The BPS samples are not simple random samples, and therefore simple random sample techniques for estimating sampling error 

cannot be applied to these data. The DAS takes into account the complexity of the sampling procedures and calculates standard 

errors appropriate for such samples. The method for computing sampling errors used by the DAS involves approximating the 

estimator by the linear terms of a Taylor series expansion. The procedure is typically referred to as the Taylor series method.
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

62 

Table B-3.—Standard errors for table 5-B: Percentage of beginning postsecondary students who had 

Table B-3.—completed a degree or were still enrolled 5 years after they began postsecondary education, 

Table B-3.—by student characteristics and year enrolled: 1989–90 and 1995–96

Total

Still Still enrolled No degree, completed

 Total Bachelor’s Associate’s enrolled at 2-year not or

 completed degree degree Certificate at 4-year or less enrolled persisted

Gender

 Male

 1989–90 1.60 1.34 0.89 1.13 0.85 0.95 1.58 1.58

 1995–96 1.42 1.14 1.00 0.92 0.93 0.76 1.42 1.42

 Female

 1989–90 1.48 1.26 1.19 1.11 0.63 0.72 1.49 1.49

 1995–96 1.24 1.15 0.88 0.99 0.69 0.76 1.27 1.27

Race/ethnicity

 American Indian 

 1989–90 13.07 5.90 9.39 11.06 # 12.84 11.37 11.37

 1995–96 12.32 11.73 1.69 6.26 6.41 2.80 9.89 9.89

 Asian/Pacific Islander

 1989–90 5.11 4.44 2.96 3.36 3.20 3.09 5.27 5.27

 1995–96 4.50 3.42 3.39 2.63 3.23 2.93 3.97 3.97

 Black

 1989–90 3.27 2.06 2.07 2.45 1.48 1.74 3.53 3.53

 1995–96 2.44 1.58 1.14 2.36 1.70 1.27 2.69 2.69

 White

 1989–90 1.25 1.18 0.89 0.93 0.59 0.55 1.19 1.19

 1995–96 1.15 1.08 0.81 0.79 0.68 0.65 1.14 1.14

 Hispanic

 1989–90 3.84 2.90 2.70 3.11 1.90 3.14 4.39 4.39

 1995–96 2.81 1.45 1.85 2.57 1.56 1.54 2.86 2.86

Family income

 Low

 1989–90 2.04 1.31 1.43 1.57 0.92 1.14 2.06 2.06

 1995–96 1.79 0.97 1.57 1.38 0.97 0.81 1.76 1.76

 Middle

 1989–90 1.41 1.19 1.06 1.12 0.73 0.76 1.44 1.44

 1995–96 1.38 1.02 0.84 0.98 0.81 0.92 1.35 1.35

 High

 1989–90 2.19 2.02 1.59 1.21 1.21 1.15 2.05 2.05

 1995–96 2.11 1.95 1.07 0.87 1.19 1.12 2.01 2.01

#Rounds to zero.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1990/94 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:90/94) and 1996/01 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/01).

Highest degree completed

No degree, 5-year persistence
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

63 

compute regression coefficients based on simple random sample assumptions, the standard errors 

must be adjusted with the design effects to take into account the BPS:96/01 sample design. 

The DAS can be accessed electronically at http://.nces.ed.gov/das. For more information 

about the BPS Data Analysis Systems, contact: 

Aurora D’Amico 

National Center for Education Statistics 

1990 K Street, NW 

Room 8115 

Washington, DC 20006 

(202) 502-7334 

Internet address: Aurora.D’Amico@ed.gov 

Statistical Procedures 

Differences Between Means 

The descriptive comparisons were tested in this report using Student’s t statistic. 

Differences between estimates are tested against the probability of a Type I error,7 or significance 

level. The significance levels were determined by calculating the Student’s t values for the 

differences between each pair of means or proportions and comparing these with published tables 

of significance levels for two-tailed hypothesis testing. 

Student’s t values may be computed to test the difference between estimates with the 

following formula: 

2

2

2

1

1 2

se se

E E

t

+

− = (1) 

where E1 and E2 are the estimates to be compared and se1 and se2 are their corresponding 

standard errors. This formula is valid only for independent estimates. When estimates are not 

independent, a covariance term must be added to the formula: 

 t =

E -E

se + se - 2(r)se se

1 2

1

2

2

2

1 2

 (2) 

 

7 A Type I error occurs when one concludes that a difference observed in a sample reflects a true difference in the population 

from which the sample was drawn, when no such difference is present. 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

64 

where r is the correlation between the two estimates.8 This formula is used when comparing two 

percentages from a distribution that adds to 100. If the comparison is between the mean of a 

subgroup and the mean of the total group, the following formula is used: 

 t =

2

sub

2

tot

2

sub

sub tot

se se 2p se

E E

+ −

− (3) 

where p is the proportion of the total group contained in the subgroup.9 The estimates, standard 

errors, and correlations can all be obtained from the DAS. 

There are hazards in reporting statistical tests for each comparison. First, comparisons 

based on large t statistics may appear to merit special attention. This can be misleading since the 

magnitude of the t statistic is related not only to the observed differences in means or percentages 

but also to the number of respondents in the specific categories used for comparison. Hence, a 

small difference compared across a large number of respondents would produce a large t statistic. 

A second hazard in reporting statistical tests is the possibility that one can report a “false 

positive” or Type I error. In the case of a t statistic, this false positive would result when a 

difference measured with a particular sample showed a statistically significant difference when 

there is no difference in the underlying population. Statistical tests are designed to control this 

type of error, denoted by alpha. The alpha level of 0.05 selected for findings in this report 

indicates that a difference of a certain magnitude or larger would be produced no more than one 

time out of twenty when there was no actual difference in the quantities in the underlying 

population. When hypothesis tests show t values at the 0.05 level or smaller, the null hypothesis, 

indicating that there is no difference between the two quantities, is rejected. However, when 

significant results are detected that are not indicated by any hypothesis, or when a large number 

of comparisons in a table are tested, Type I errors should not be ignored. For example, in this 

analysis, comparisons of degree completion between the two cohorts were made both overall and 

also for each of four institution types (public 4-year, private not-for-profit 4-year, public 2-year, 

and for-profit). The probability of a Type I error for these comparisons taken as a group is larger 

than the probability for a single comparison. When more than one comparison between groups of 

related characteristics are tested for statistical significance, one must apply a standard that assures 

a level of significance for all of those comparisons taken together. In this analysis, the Fisher’s 

protected t-test method (also called the “least significant difference” method) was used to protect 

 

8 U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, A Note from the Chief Statistician, no. 2, 1993. 

9 Ibid. 
Appendix B—Technical Notes and Methodology 

65 

against the inflation of the overall probability of a Type I error.10 The method involves 

calculating the overall F ratio (computed as part of the two-way ANOVA described below under 

“Interaction Effects”) and determining whether the F value is sufficiently large to reject the null 

hypothesis. When the value of the overall F exceeded the value at the 0.05 level, the comparison 

was considered significant. However, even when the overall F is significant, one can only 

conclude that a comparison for a particular group within a family (such as institution type) is 

different when a t-value is significant. One cannot conclude that non-significant comparisons for 

other groups within that family are not different. For example, when looking at the difference 

between the two cohorts in the combined completion and persistence rate by institution type, 

only the comparison for public 4-year institutions is significant (see table 5-A). One cannot 

conclude that the rate did not change for other institution types, only that a change could not be 

detected. 

Interaction Effects (Change in Completion Gaps) 

Determining differential changes in outcomes across years for particular groups of students 

involved a test of interaction effects. These interaction effects were tested with a two-way 

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). For example, in comparing the change in total degree 

completion between BPS participants in 1989–90 and 1995–96 by income level, a test was 

conducted on the interaction between income level and a variable representing year. An 

interaction effect significant at the 0.05 level indicated that the amount of change in completion 

between the two cohorts was different for students from different income levels. 

In creating the two-way Analysis of Variance, the squares of the standard errors, the 

variance between the means, and the unweighted sample sizes were used to partition total sums 

of squares into within- and between-group sums of squares. These were used to create mean 

squares for the within- and between-group variance components and their corresponding F

statistics. The F statistics were then compared with F values associated with a significance level 

of 0.05. Significant values of both the overall F and the F associated with the interaction term 

were required as evidence of a relationship between year and the row variable of interest. Means 

and standard errors were calculated by the DAS. Unweighted sample sizes are not available from 

the DAS and were provided by NCES through a restricted-use data license agreement. 

 

10 See Snedecor, G. and Cochran, W. (1980). Statistical Methods, Iowa State University Press, Ames, Iowa (p. 234) or Harris, R. 

(1975), A Primer of Mulitivariate Statistics, Academic Press, NY (p. 11).