APPENDIX 8-H. DETERMINATION OF BASECASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

8-H.1 PRODUCT ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN THE BASE CASE ............................... 8-H-1 8-H.1.1 Room Air Conditioners.......................................................................................... 8-H-1 8-H.1.2 Clothes Dryers ....................................................................................................... 8- H-3

LIST OF TABLES

Table 8-H.1.1 Room Air Conditi oners Energy Efficiency: Base Case Market Shares.....8-H-1 Table 8-H.1.2 Vented Clothes Dryers Energy Efficiency: Base Case Market Shares......8-H-3 Table 8-H.1.3 Vent-less Clothes Dryers Energy Efficiency: Base Case Market Shares .. 8-H-3

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 8-H.1.1 Energy Star Room Air Conditioner Fraction of Total Room Air Conditioner Shipments from 1998 to 2007................................................8-H-2 Figure 8-H.1.2 Room Air Conditioner Ship ment Weighted Efficiency from 1999 to 2008............................................................................................................8-H-2

8-H-iAPPENDIX 8-H. DETERIMINATION OF BASECASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS

8-H.1 PRODUCT ENERGY EFFICIENCY IN THE BASE CASE

To estimate the percentage of consumers who would be affected by a standard at any of the potential efficiency levels, in its life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considered the projected distribution of efficiencies for products that consumers purchase under the base case (the case without new energy efficiency standards). DOE refers to this distribution of product energy efficiencies as the base-case efficiency distribution. Using the projected distribution of efficiencies for each product class, DOE randomly assigned a product efficiency to each sample household and commerc ial user. If a household is assigned a product efficiency that was greater than or equal to the efficiency of the standard level under consideration, the LCC calculati on would show that this household would not be affected by that standard level. The energy efficiency distributions that DOE used in the LCC analysis are described below.

8-H.1.1 Room Air Conditioners
To develop a base-case energy efficiency distribution for room air conditioners, DOE began with data that AHAM provided showing the distribu tion of room air conditioner efficiencies sold by product class in 2005–2007. 1 Using these data, DOE derived the shares inTable 8-H.1.1. Regarding change in energy efficiency in coming years, the data on shipmentweighted average efficiency are inconclusive. See the figures 8-H.1.1. and 8-H.1.2., below. Therefore, DOE assumed that the market shares of the efficiency levels in 2014 will be roughly the same as the shares in 2007. The market shares in Table 8-H.1.1 represent the products that consumers would be expected to purchase in 2014 in the absence of new standards.

Table 8-H.1.1 Room Air Conditioners Energy Efficiency: Base Case Market Shares

Less than 6,000 Btu/h with Louvers 8,000

– 13,999 Btu/h with Louvers 20,000 Btu/h or more with Louvers 8,000

– 13,999 Btu/h without Louvers IEER Share IEER Share IEER Share IEER Share

9.52 96.0% 9.7 51.4% 8.47 37.0% 8.4 39.0% 10.1 0.0% 10.3 1.5% 9.0 6.1% 8.9 0.0% 10.6 4.0% 10.8 44.3% 9.4 56.2% 9.3 61.0% 11.1 0.0% 11.3 1.7% 9.8 0.7% 9.8 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.5 1.1% 10.0 0.0% 12.0 0.0%

DOE also assembled data for 2002–2007 on mark et shares of ENERGY STAR room air conditioners by State and organized them into Census Divisions and four large States. In assigning a product efficiency to each samp le household and commerc ial user, DOE accounted for regional patterns in the efficiency distribution.

8-H-10% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
**Year Energy Star RAC Fraction of Total** **RAC Shipments(%)**

Figure 8-H.1.1 Energy Star Room Air Co nditioner Fraction of Total Room Air Conditioner Shipments from 1998 to 2007

8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.1

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

**Year Shipment-Weighted EER** 

Figure 8-H.1.2 Room Air Conditioner Shipment Weighted Efficiency from 1999 to 2008 8-H-28-H.1.2 Clothes Dryers
To develop a base case energy efficiency distribution for clothes dryers, DOE began with data that AHAM provided showing the distribution of clothes dryer efficiencies sold by product class in 2005–2007. 1 Because there is no evidence of change in average efficiency in recent years, DOE assumed that the shares remain the same in 2014. The market shares in Tables 8­ H.1.2 and 8-H.1.3 represent the products that hou seholds would be expected to purchase in 2014 in the absence of new standards.

Table 8-H.1.2 Vented Clothes Dryers Energy Efficiency: Base Case Market Shares

Electric, Standard Electric, Compact (120V) Electric, Compact (240V) Gas

IEF (lb/kWh) Share IEF (lb/kWh) Share IEF (lb/kWh) Share IEF (lb/kWh) Share

2.96 29.5% 3.00 100% 2.79 38.9% 2.63 26.8% 3.04 49.9% 3.08 0.0% 2.86 38.9% 2.71 43.4% 3.10 20.6% 3.15 0.0% 2.96 0.0% 2.80 28.9% 3.33 0.0% 3.37 0.0% 3.06 22.2% 2.97 0.9% 3.35 0.0% 3.41 0.0% 3.10 0.0% 2.98 0.0% 3.40 0.0% 3.53 0.0% 3.19 0.0% 3.02 0.0% 4.52 0.0% 4.69 0.0% 4.34 0.0%

Table 8-H.1.3 Vent-less Clothes Dryers Energy Efficiency: Base Case Market Shares Electric, Compact (240V) Electric, Combination Washer/Dryer IEF (lb/kWh) Share IEF (lb/kWh) Share

2.29 100% 1.90 100% 2.31 0.0% 2.15 0.0% 2.37 0.0% 2.34 0.0% 2.39 0.0% 2.36 0.0% 2.59 0.0% 2.42 0.0% 3.54 0.0% 3.31 0.0%

8-H-3REFERENCES

1. Association of Home Appliance Manufactur ers, AHAM Data on Room Air Conditioners and Clothes Dryers

. 2008

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