Analysis of the Impacts of the 

Clean Power Plan

May 2015

Independent Statistics & Analysis

www.eia.gov

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585
U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan i

This report was prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and 

analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. By law, EIA’s data, analyses, and forecasts are 

independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the United States Government. The views 

in this report therefore should not be construed as representing those of the U.S. Department of Energy 

or other federal agencies.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan ii

Table of Contents

Background, Methodology, and Scenarios...................................................................................................1

Description of the proposed Clean Power Plan.......................................................................................1

Rulemaking history and status..........................................................................................................1

EPA’s proposed Best System of Emissions Reduction and state-level CO2 emission performance 

goals ..................................................................................................................................................2

Methodology ...........................................................................................................................................4

The National Energy Modeling System.............................................................................................4

Regional groupings............................................................................................................................5

Caveats regarding interpretation of this analysis....................................................................................8

Scenario descriptions.............................................................................................................................12

Summary of Results....................................................................................................................................14

Detailed Results ..........................................................................................................................................27

CO2 emissions and compliance strategy indicators...............................................................................27

CO2 emissions..................................................................................................................................27

Total generation by fuel type..........................................................................................................29

Heat rate improvement...................................................................................................................32

Retirements and capacity additions......................................................................................................34

Retirements.....................................................................................................................................34

Capacity additions...........................................................................................................................35

New nuclear ....................................................................................................................................39

Demand reduction through incremental efficiency programs..............................................................40

Electricity prices.....................................................................................................................................41

Natural gas ......................................................................................................................................44

Coal..................................................................................................................................................47

Regional coal production ................................................................................................................49

Further regional impacts .......................................................................................................................52

Regional differences in renewable penetration..............................................................................52

Regional differences in natural gas-fired generation......................................................................53

Regional differences in the operation of coal-fired generating units.............................................55

Regional differences in demand reduction.....................................................................................57
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan iii

Reliability and infrastructure impacts ...................................................................................................59

Macroeconomic indicators....................................................................................................................62

Additional sensitivity cases....................................................................................................................65

Phase-in sensitivity..........................................................................................................................66

Heat rate improvement sensitivity cases........................................................................................68

Energy efficiency sensitivity cases...................................................................................................69

Markets for CO2 for enhanced oil recovery ....................................................................................70

Wide regional cooperation .............................................................................................................71

Biomass CO2 emission rate..............................................................................................................71

Limited interregional transmission capacity ...................................................................................72

Appendix A..................................................................................................................................................74

Request letter........................................................................................................................................74

Appendix B..................................................................................................................................................77

Acronyms...............................................................................................................................................77

Appendix C ..................................................................................................................................................79

State carbon intensity targets ...............................................................................................................79

Appendix D..................................................................................................................................................81

EMM Region carbon intensity targets...................................................................................................81

Appendix E ..................................................................................................................................................82

Detailed description of NEMS carbon intensity constraint ...................................................................82

Appendix F ..................................................................................................................................................83

Additional description of methodology for heat rate improvement, re-dispatch, low- and zero-carbon 

generation, and demand-side efficiency ...............................................................................................83

Heat rate improvement...................................................................................................................83

Re-dispatch......................................................................................................................................84

Low- and zero-carbon capacity expansion......................................................................................84

Demand-side energy efficiency.......................................................................................................85

Appendix G..................................................................................................................................................87

Appendix H..................................................................................................................................................93

Appendix I ...................................................................................................................................................95
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan iv

Tables

Table 1. NEMS EMM Regions........................................................................................................................8

Table 2. Description of EIA baseline cases and Clean Power Plan cases....................................................12

Table 3. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years......23

Table 4. Summary results for AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource, High Economic Growth and CPP cases, 

selected years .............................................................................................................................................25

Table 5. Power sector CO2 emissions reduction relative to 2005 levels in Clean Power Plan cases..........28

Table 6. Summary of heat rates and capacity performing heat rate improvement in Baseline and Clean 

Power Plan cases.........................................................................................................................................33

Table 7. Nuclear power projections in three cases (gigawatts)..................................................................39

Table 8. Change in average electricity price components in five cases, relative to baseline levels...........42

Table 9. Change in regional retail electricity prices in two cases, relative to baseline levels ....................43

Table 10. Change in electricity expenditures by sector in five cases, relative to baseline levels...............44

Table 11. Differences in natural gas production from baseline in the CPP cases.......................................46

Table 12. Growth rates for renewable generation by EMM region and compliance period for two cases, 

sorted by 2020-29 CPP growth rate............................................................................................................52

Table 13. Growth rates for natural gas generation by EMM region and compliance period for two cases, 

sorted by 2020-29 CPP growth rate............................................................................................................54

Table 14. Growth rates for coal-fired generation by EMM region and compliance period for two cases, 

sorted by 2020-29 CPP growth rate............................................................................................................56

Table 15. Cumulative demand-side efficiency reductions to 2030 by EMM region, sorted by ratio to U.S. 

average........................................................................................................................................................58

Table 16. Regional generation shares by fuel category, baseline and Clean Power Plan cases.................61

Table 17. Additional Clean Power Plan sensitivity cases............................................................................66

Table 18. Summary of Key Indicators in phase-in case...............................................................................67

Table 19. Comparison of heat rate improvement (HRI) indicators in three cases. ....................................69

Table 20. Incremental cumulative net present value of selected costs (billion 2013 $) over 2014-40 

relative to AEO2015 Reference case...........................................................................................................70

Table 21. Total capacity with carbon capture and sequestration in three cases (gigawatts) ....................71

Table 22. Electric power sector resource costs in three cases - cumulative net present value over 2014-

40 (billion 2013 dollars) ..............................................................................................................................71

Table 23. Electric power sector biomass capacity and generation projections in three cases..................72

Table 24. EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan state carbon intensity targets (pounds CO2 per 

megawatthour) ...........................................................................................................................................79

Table 25. Electricity Market Module regional carbon intensity targets (pounds CO2 per megawatthour)81

Table 26. End-use rebate level as a percentage of installed cost by energy efficiency program category 

and Census division as used for input to NEMS..........................................................................................86

Table 27. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years....87

Table 28. Summary results for AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource, High Economic Growth and CPP 

cases, selected years...................................................................................................................................93

Table 29. Summary results for Heat Rate sensitivity reference and Clean Power Plan cases, selected 

years............................................................................................................................................................95
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan v

Figures

Figure 1. NEMS Electricity Market Module regions......................................................................................5

Figure 2. United States Census Divisions......................................................................................................7

Figure 3. Change in electric power sector CO2 emissions in Clean Power Plan (CPP) cases relative to 

baseline, selected years..............................................................................................................................14

Figure 4. Change in generation and energy efficiency savings under the Clean Power Plan Base Policy 

case relative to AEO2015 Reference case...................................................................................................15

Figure 5. Change in generation and energy efficiency savings under the Clean Power Plan Policy 

Extension case relative to AEO2015 Reference case..................................................................................15

Figure 6. Nuclear generation in AEO2015 Reference and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years...........16

Figure 7. Change in generating capacity retirements by fuel type in Clean Power Plan cases relative to 

baseline (cumulative, 2014-40)...................................................................................................................17

Figure 8. Change in generating capacity additions by fuel type in Clean Power Plan cases relative to 

baseline (cumulative, 2014-40)...................................................................................................................17

Figure 9. Total U.S. coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40 ............................18

Figure 10. Minemouth steam coal prices in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40 ....................19

Figure 11. Natural gas production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40 ...............................20

Figure 12. Henry Hub spot price for natural gas in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40..........20

Figure 13. Average percentage change in heat rate of coal-fired generators in Clean Power Plan cases, 

relative to baseline cases............................................................................................................................21

Figure 14. All sectors average retail electricity price in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40...22

Figure 15. Power sector CO2 emissions in Baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40 .......................28

Figure 16. Average capacity factor for coal-fired generating units in Baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 

2005-40 .......................................................................................................................................................30

Figure 17. Average capacity factor for natural gas combined cycle plants in Baseline and Clean Power 

Plan cases, 2013-40.....................................................................................................................................31

Figure 18. Change in electricity generation by fuel in Clean Power Plan cases relative to baseline..........32

Figure 19. Average heat rate of coal-fired generators in Baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40 34

Figure 20. Change in generating capacity retirements by fuel type in Clean Power Plan cases relative to 

baseline (cumulative, 2014-40)...................................................................................................................35

Figure 21. Change in cumulative capacity additions, 2014-40, in Clean Power Plan cases relative to 

baseline.......................................................................................................................................................36

Figure 22. Change in installed wind generating capacity in Clean Power Plan cases relative to baseline.37

Figure 23. Change in installed solar generating capacity in Clean Power Plan cases relative to baseline .38

Figure 24. Change in installed natural gas-fired combined cycle capacity in Clean Power Plan cases 

relative to baseline......................................................................................................................................39

Figure 25. Delivered buildings electricity consumption, 2005-40 ..............................................................41

Figure 26. Electric power sector natural gas consumption in baseline and CPP cases, 2005-40 ...............45

Figure 27. Average delivered natural gas prices to the electric power sector in baseline and Clean Power 

Plan cases, 2005-40.....................................................................................................................................47

Figure 28. Total U.S. coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40...........................48
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Figure 29. Average delivered coal prices to the electric power sector in baseline and Clean Power Plan 

cases, 2005-40.............................................................................................................................................49

Figure 30. Appalachian coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40......................50

Figure 31. Interior coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40..............................51

Figure 32. Western coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40 ............................51

Figure 33. Difference in renewable generation (Base Policy case vs. AEO2015 Reference case) in top five 

growth regions, 2015-40.............................................................................................................................53

Figure 34. Difference in natural gas-fired generation (Base Policy case vs. AEO2015 Reference case) in 

top five growth regions, 2015-40 ...............................................................................................................55

Figure 35. Difference in coal-fired generation (Base Policy case vs. AEO2015 Reference case) in top five 

regions of decline, 2015-40 ........................................................................................................................57

Figure 36. Regional EMM demand-side reductions, Base Policy relative to AEO Reference, 2030 sales ..58

Figure 37. Wholesale and consumer energy price changes across two Clean Power Plan cases, relative to 

AEO2015 Reference case............................................................................................................................63

Figure 38. Real gross domestic product in AEO2015 Reference and Clean Power Plan cases, 2015-40....63

Figure 39. Real cumulative GDP impacts across two Clean Power Plan cases, relative to AEO2015 

Reference case............................................................................................................................................64

Figure 40. Disposable income changes across two Clean Power Plan cases, relative to AEO2015 

Reference case............................................................................................................................................64

Figure 41. Change in wholesale energy prices and real GDP in Clean Power Plan cases relative to baseline

....................................................................................................................................................................65
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 1

Background, Methodology, and Scenarios

This report responds to an August 2014 request to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 

from Representative Lamar Smith, Chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on 

Science, Space, and Technology, for an analysis of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 

proposed Clean Power Plan under which states would be required to develop plans to reduce carbon 

dioxide (CO2) emissions rates from existing fossil-fired electricity generating units.1 Appendix A provides 

a copy of the request letter.

The starting point for EIA’s analysis of the Clean Power Plan is the Annual Energy Outlook 2015

(AEO2015) Reference case rather than earlier AEO projections that were developed using versions of 

EIA’s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that lack the model structure needed to analyze key 

features of the Clean Power Plan proposal. With EIA’s decision, unrelated to this project, to publish 

shorter and longer editions of the AEO in alternating years, AEO2015 does not include all of the 

alternative cases presented in earlier AEO editions. However, in the spirit of Chairman Smith’s request, 

this report analyzes the Clean Power Plan in the context of the AEO2015 High Economic Growth and 

High Oil and Gas Resource cases as well as the Reference case in order to examine indicators of the 

proposed rule’s impacts on energy markets under varying assumptions regarding economic growth, 

electricity demand, and fuel prices.

To address some of the additional questions raised in Chairman Smith’s request, the report includes 

additional Clean Power Plan sensitivity cases including: 1) extension of the Clean Power Plan targets 

beyond 2030 to reduce CO2 emissions from electric power generation by 45% relative to the 2005 level 

by 2040; 2) treatment of future nuclear capacity similar to the treatment of renewable capacity; 3) 

sensitivities for expenditures and effectiveness of energy efficiency programs; 4) sensitivities for the cost 

and effectiveness of heat rate improvement measures; 5) no availability of markets for CO2 captured 

from electric power plants for enhanced oil recovery (EOR); 6) an alternative compliance phase-in 

trajectory during the 2020-29 period; 7) alternative accounting rules for emissions from biomass 

generation; 8) national compliance cooperation; and 9) limited interregional trade. 

Description of the proposed Clean Power Plan

Rulemaking history and status

In June 2014, EPA issued its proposed Clean Power Plan to regulate CO2 emissions from existing power 

plants under section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act.2 The Clean Power Plan proposes to limit carbon

emissions from existing fossil fuel-fired electric generating units, including steam generating, integrated 

gasification combined cycle, or stationary combustion turbines (in either simple cycle or combined cycle

 1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility 

Generating Units (Proposed Rule), 79 Fed. Reg. 34,830 (June 18, 2014), accessed January 10, 2015. 2 Clean Air Act, 42 U.S.C. §§7401 et seq. (2013), §7411(d).
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 2

configuration) operating or under construction by January 8, 2014.

3

In addition to the text of the proposed rule, EPA issued a Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Clean Power 

Plan,

4 along with numerous technical supporting documents and fact sheets.5 In October 2014, EPA

issued a notice of data availability, which provided discussion and solicited additional comment on 

several topic areas, including the 2020-29 compliance trajectories.

6 Also in October 2014, EPA issued a 

supplemental proposal to address carbon pollution from affected power plants in Indian Country and 

U.S. territories.7 In November 2014, EPA issued an additional technical support document providing 

examples of how a state could translate its rate-based goal into an equivalent mass-based goal, 

expressed in metric tons of CO2.

8 In November 2014, EPA also issued a memo addressing biogenic CO2

emissions from stationary sources that explicitly relates this topic to the implementation of the Clean 

Power Plan.

9

EPA’s proposed Best System of Emissions Reduction and state-level CO2 emission 

performance goals

In the proposed Clean Power Plan, EPA calculates the emissions reduction targets for individual states 

through application of a Best System of Emissions Reduction (BSER). The BSER consists of four building 

blocks which represent approaches to reducing CO2 emissions rates from existing fossil fuel-fired 

generators as calculated for purposes of compliance:

Building block 1: Improving the thermal efficiency of individual affected sources (heat rate 

improvement)10

Building Block 2: Dispatching the generating fleet to substitute less-carbon-intensive affected 

sources for more-carbon-intensive affected sources (re-dispatch for reduced emissions)

Building Block 3: Expanding the use of low- or zero-carbon generation in order to displace affected 

sources (low- and zero-carbon capacity expansion)

 3 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility 

Generating Units (Proposed Rule), 79 Fed. Reg. 34,830 (June 18, 2014), at 34,954, accessed January 10, 2015. 4 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Regulatory Impact Analysis for the 

Proposed Carbon Pollution Guidelines for Existing Power Plants and Emissions Standards for Modified and Reconstructed Power 

Plants, EPA-452/R-14-002 (June, 2014), accessed December 30, 2014. 5 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Clean Power Plan Proposed Rule Technical Documents, accessed January 10, 2015. 6 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility 

Generating Units (Notice of Data Availability), 79 Fed. Reg. 69,543 (October 30, 2014), accessed January 31, 2015. 7 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: EGU’s in Indian 

Country and U.S. Territories; Multi-Jurisdictional Partnerships (Supplemental Proposed Rulemaking), 79 Fed. Reg. 65,482

(November 4, 2014), accessed January 31, 2015. 8 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Translation of the Clean Power Plan Emission Rate-Based 

CO2 Goals to Mass-Based Equivalents, Technical Support Document, Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602 (November 2014), 

accessed January 10, 2015 [hereinafter “Mass-Based Equivalent Technical Support Document”]. 9 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Framework for Assessing Biogenic CO2 Emissions from 

Stationary Sources (November 2014) 10 Heat rate is defined as a measure of generating station thermal efficiency, commonly stated in British thermal units (Btu) per 

kilowatthour (kWh). U.S. Energy Information Administration Glossary, accessed November 12, 2014.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 3

Building Block 4: Employing the use of demand-side energy efficiency to reduce overall generation 

required from affected sources (demand-side energy efficiency)11

In determining state goals, EPA begins by calculating an affected fossil generation emissions rate, in 

pounds of CO2 emissions per megawatt hour of electricity generated, based on 2012 historical data for 

each state. EPA then applies the building blocks of the BSER to arrive at each state’s interim and final 

emission rate performance goals. The Clean Power Plan proposes that states begin to reduce CO2

emissions from affected electric generating units by 2020 in order to reach final CO2 emission 

performance goals, measured in pounds of CO2 emitted per megawatthour of electricity generated from 

affected electric generating units, by 2030. The Clean Power Plan also proposes that states meet 

interim CO2 emission performance goals, on average, over the 10-year compliance period from 2020-

29.12 The state-level emissions rates as calculated by EPA for 2012, as well as the interim targets for 

2020-29 and the final targets for 2030 and beyond, specified in the proposed Clean Power Plan are 

provided in Appendix C, Table 25.

It is critical to recognize that while the BSER building blocks are used to establish state-level goals, each 

state has discretion in designing implementation plans to achieve outcomes that meet the goals. Two or 

more states may also cooperate to meet their combined goals jointly.

The state-level emissions performance goals under the proposed Clean Power Plan are not based on a 

simple emission rate calculation (emissions divided by generation) for generation provided by existing 

fossil-fired electric generating units. Rather, the goals are established and compliance is assessed using a 

formula that provides varying treatment of specific generation sources and demand-side efficiency 

programs that can displace CO2 emissions from existing generating units that are regulated under the 

Clean Power Plan proposal. For example, unlimited amounts of new and existing zero-emission nonhydropower renewable generation are included in the generation base used to calculate compliance,

which makes the non-hydropower renewable generation more valuable for compliance than existing 

hydropower and new and existing nuclear generation that do not receive similar treatment. The 

proposed Clean Power Plan formula also considers efficiency programs that reduce load as equivalent to 

zero-emission generation that counts in the base for the compliance calculation, even though some of 

the generation that is avoided by reduced load may have already been served by zero-emission 

generation sources. 

 11 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility 

Generating Units (Proposed Rule), 79 Fed. Reg. 34,830 (June 18, 2014), at 34,851, accessed January 10, 2015. 12 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility 

Generating Units (Proposed Rule), 79 Fed. Reg. 34,830 (June 18, 2014) at 34,838, accessed January 10, 2015. EPA also sought 

comment on an alternative regulatory option, consisting of a 5-year compliance period and a less-stringent set of CO2 emission 

performance levels. The alternative option would require that states meet final emission performance levels by 2025, with 

interim goals met over the period from 2020-2024. In this report, EIA does not analyze the alternative 5-year option.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 4

Methodology

The National Energy Modeling System

This report considers the proposed Clean Power Plan as modeled using EIA’s National Energy Modeling 

System (NEMS). NEMS is a modular economic modeling system used by EIA to develop long-term 

projections of the U.S. energy sector, currently through the year 2040.13 

The level of regional disaggregation in NEMS varies across sectors. For example, Lower 48 states 

electricity markets are represented using 22 regions, coal production is represented by 14 regions, and 

oil and natural gas production is represented in 9 regions. In many but not all cases, regional boundaries 

follow state borders. To the extent possible, this analysis represents the Clean Power Plan using regional 

targets derived from the state-level targets in the EPA proposal. 

The Reference case projections developed in NEMS and published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 

generally reflect federal laws and regulations and state renewable portfolio standards (RPS) in effect at 

the time of the projection. The Reference case does not assume the extension of laws with sunset 

provisions. In keeping with the requirement that EIA remain policy-neutral, the Reference case does not 

include proposed regulations such as the Clean Power Plan. 

For this report, EIA constructed cases in NEMS that represent compliance with the proposed Clean 

Power Plan, including:

• EPA’s proposed carbon intensity targets during the interim and final compliance periods, 

enforced at the NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM) region level

• Choice of heat rate improvements (HRI) based on the representation of the cost and degree of 

potential HRI incorporated in the current (AEO2015) version of NEMS14

• Re-dispatch of affected electric generating units as an available compliance strategy

• Credit in compliance calculations for generation from existing and new renewable capacity15

• Credit in compliance calculations for currently under-construction nuclear capacity and 6% of 

generation from existing nuclear capacity

• Expansion of new low- and zero-carbon-emitting generating capacity, including representation 

of state renewable portfolio standards (RPS)16

 13 For additional information, see U.S. Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 

2009, DOE/EIA-0581(2009) (October 2009), accessed January 10, 2015. 14 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Heat Rate Improvement Potential at Coal-Fired Power Plants, (May 

2015).

15 Excludes existing hydroelectric generation, and excludes existing and new municipal solid waste generation. The model 

compliance calculation does credit incremental hydroelectric generation added by NEMS. See Clean Power Plan at ¶630, “The 

exclusion of pre-existing hydropower generation from the baseline of this target-setting framework does not prevent states 

from considering incremental hydropower generation from existing facilities (or later-built facilities) as an option for 

compliance with state goals.” 16 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (2015). NEMS modeling only 

represents those RPS targets having established enforcement provisions or state funding mechanisms.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 5

• Credit in compliance calculations for avoided generation as a result of incremental demand-side 

energy efficiency savings achieved through energy efficiency measures in the residential and 

commercial sectors 17

• A phased-in 2020-29 compliance trajectory, to reflect that the proposed rule allows states 

flexibility to determine their pre-2030 trajectory, if they meet interim targets on a 10-year 

average or cumulative basis

By explicitly modeling the intensity targets, NEMS does not require or assume specific levels for 

individual compliance strategies. The discussion of EIA’s analysis presents results in terms of the 

compliance options used to meet the regionalized Clean Power Plan targets.

Regional groupings

As noted above, NEMS is not a state-level model. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) builds and 

dispatches electric generating capacity in twenty-two distinct geographic regions, as shown in Figure 1

and described in Table 1.

18

For modeling purposes, EIA treats EMM regions as Clean Power Plan compliance regions in the bulk of 

this analysis. The model assigns each EMM region an emission performance goal in each compliance 

year from 2020-29, and holds the final goal constant from 2030 onwards. The modeled EMM regional 

goals, provided in Appendix D, Table 25, are consistent with EPA’s proposed state-level goals.19

End-use sector models within NEMS, including the Residential Demand Module and the Commercial 

Demand Module, are Census region-based rather than state-level models. For this analysis, the end-use 

sector models determine results of incremental demand-side energy efficiency activities by U.S. Census 

division (Figure 2) and then map the savings to Electricity Market Module regions.

 17 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Energy Efficiency Program Impacts Based on Program Spending, (May 

2015).

18 The Electricity Market Module regions shown in Figure 1 were developed and implemented in NEMS for the Annual Energy 

Outlook 2011, and corresponded to the North American Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions in place at that time, divided 

into sub-regions. See U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2011, Electricity Market Module 

Documentation at p. 16, accessed January 2, 2015. 19 The 2012 historical generation-weighted average goal for each state in an EMM region is used as the basis for translating 

from EPA’s state goals to EMM regional goals. 
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Figure 1. NEMS Electricity Market Module regions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 7

Figure 2. United States Census Divisions

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
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Table 1. NEMS EMM Regions

Number Abbreviation NERC Sub Region Name Geographic Name*

1 ERCT Texas Regional Entity Texas

2 FRCC Florida Reliability Coordinating Council Florida

3 MROE Midwest Reliability Council – East Eastern Wisconsin

4 MROW Midwest Reliability Council – West Northern Plains

5 NEWE Northeast Power Coordinating Council/ 

Northeast

New England

6 NYCW Northeast Power Coordinating Council/ 

New York City-Westchester

New York City

7 NYLI Northeast Power Coordinating Council/ 

Long Island

Long Island

8 NYUP Northeast Power Coordinating Council/ 

Upstate New York

Upstate New York

9 RFCE ReliabilityFirst Corporation – East Mid-Atlantic

10 RFCM ReliabilityFirst Corporation – Michigan Lower Michigan

11 RFCW ReliabilityFirst Corporation – West Great Lakes

12 SRDA SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC)-

Delta

Mississippi Delta

13 SRGW SERC – Gateway Mississippi Basin

14 SRSE SERC – Southeast Southeast

15 SRCE SERC – Central Tennessee Valley

16 SRVC SERC – Virginia-Carolina Virginia-Carolina

17 SPNO Southwest Power Pool North Central Plains

18 SPSO Southwest Power Pool South Southern Plains

19 AZNM Western Electricity Coordinating Council

(WECC) – Arizona New Mexico

Southwest

20 CAMX WECC – California California

21 NWPP WECC – Northwest Power Pool Area Northwest

22 RMPA WECC – Rocky Mountain Rocky Mountain

* Names are intended to be approximately descriptive of location. Exact regional boundaries do not necessarily 

correspond to state borders or to other regional naming conventions.

Note: EIA groups Regions 6, 7, and 8 (New York City, Long Island, and Upstate New York) into a single Clean Power 

Plan compliance region in the Base Policy case and in the alternative cases.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Caveats regarding interpretation of this analysis

Consistent with EIA’s statutory mission and expertise, this analysis focuses on the implications for the 

energy system and the economy of reducing CO2 emissions under the proposed Clean Power Plan. It 

does not consider any potential health or environmental benefits from reducing CO2 emissions from 

existing electric generating units covered by the proposed Clean Power Plan. It is not a cost-benefit 

analysis.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 9

Additionally, this analysis represents other laws and regulations as modeled in NEMS. The Reference 

case used as the starting point for this analysis is the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) Reference 

case, which generally reflects laws and regulations in effect as of October 2014. 

EIA recognizes that projections over a 25-year horizon are inherently uncertain and subject to changing 

policy objectives, supply disruptions, the emergence of disruptive technologies, and other future 

developments. It is not possible for EIA to account for all uncertainties; for practical reasons this study 

examines a limited set of sensitivities through alternative scenario analysis.

Additionally, there is considerable uncertainty and many challenges are involved in projecting the 

impacts of the proposed Clean Power Plan.

• The Clean Power Plan is still a proposed rule as of the date of this report; the final rule may 

differ from the proposed rule in material ways.

• The regional compliance patterns presented in this analysis are model outputs from NEMS, 

while actual compliance mechanisms will be defined by state compliance proposals and may 

have different characteristics.

• The construction of new generation to comply with the Clean Power Plan may necessitate 

upgrades to, and expansion of, electric power transmission systems; however, NEMS does not 

include transfer limits on intraregional power trade, nor does it contain a power-flow model or 

assess the reliability of bulk power transmission systems in detail.

• NEMS does not consider how deliverability of natural gas to power plants using that fuel might 

be impacted by extreme cold conditions in regions where natural gas is a primary fuel for 

residential and commercial heating and local natural gas distribution companies typically have 

the first call on available firm natural gas transmission capacity. 

• The modeled 2020-29 emission performance trajectory was developed outside of NEMS, as an

approach to represent the proposed rule’s flexibility within the existing NEMS framework.

20

• Combustion turbines are not included in compliance calculations based on the assumption that 

only a small percentage would reach the output criteria proposed by EPA.

• NEMS does not model useful thermal output from power-sector combined heat and power 

(CHP) plants; therefore, this analysis applies a calculated average generation factor to powersector CHP plants in NEMS in order to represent the Clean Power Plan’s provision to account for 

useful thermal output from CHP.21

 20 The modeled trajectory attempts to impose lower carbon reductions in the early compliance years, within the constraints of 

maintaining the 10-year average interim emission performance goals, and not require any state to reduce its annual emission 

performance goal below its final 2030 target in any compliance year. This analysis also includes a sensitivity case showing the 

impact if the trajectory is assumed to be identical to the path shown in Appendix 1 to EPA’s Goal Computation TSD. 21 For the purposes of this analysis, end-use CHP is excluded from compliance calculations.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 10

Treatment of New Nuclear Generating Capacity under EPA’s Proposed Clean Power Plan rule for 

Existing Electric Generating Units under Clean Air Act Section 111(d)

The proposed Clean Power Plan Rule under section 111(d) is complex and subject to varying 

interpretation even before consideration of decisions that will be made by states to implement the rule 

that is finally promulgated. The treatment of new nuclear generation not already under construction 

illustrates the challenges in this area. 

In developing its Base Policy case (CPP), EIA assumed that new nuclear generation beyond units already 

under construction would not receive the same treatment accorded under the rule to eligible renewable 

generation, which is counted in the denominator when calculating the average carbon dioxide intensity 

rate for generation from existing fossil-fuel units for compliance purposes. However, EIA also 

considered an alternative case (CPPNUC) that accorded all new nuclear power the same treatment as 

new eligible renewables in the compliance calculation. 

EIA’s assumption regarding the treatment of new nuclear units beyond those already under construction 

in the Base Policy case (CPP) is consistent with its reading of: 

1) Language regarding the definition of “new nuclear generating capacity” from the proposed 

rule,22 and

2) The rate-setting criteria23 in the technical support documentation accompanying the 

proposed rule.

The proposed rule identifies new nuclear capacity as a potential source of carbon-free generation that 

can replace existing fossil-fueled power plants targeted under the program. EPA focuses on what it 

regards as the two most promising sources of additional nuclear output: 1) plants currently under 

construction, and 2) preservation of existing plants that might otherwise be retired, 5.7 GW of capacity, 

or roughly 6% of the share of nuclear capacity termed “at risk of retirement.” Generation from “new” 

nuclear plants not already under construction is not presented as affected generation (i.e., the 

denominator of the average CO2 intensity rate formula). States could allow generation from new, notunder-construction plants to displace generation (and emissions) from existing coal or natural gas plants 

that were accounted for in the emission rate computation. While this displacement would, presumably, 

help states meet their emission rate goal, the generation from these “new” plants would not be directly 

reflected in the base generation used to compute the goal.

EPA’s “Goal Computation Technical Support Document” (TSD) accompanying the Federal Register Notice 

allows generation from “under construction” and “at risk [of retirement]” nuclear plants to count 

against the affected generation (in the denominator, as indicated in the equation below) used to 

compute the emission rate goals for each state.24

 22 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility 

Generating Units; Proposed Rule Federal Register /Vol. 79, No. 117 /Wednesday, June 18, 2014 / page. 34871, 

https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/06/18/2014-13726/carbon-pollution-emission-guidelines-for-existingstationary-sources-electric-utility-generating#h-90. 23 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Goal Computation Technical Support Document; June 2014 page 3, 

http://www2.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-06/documents/20140602tsd-goal-computation.pdf 24 See page 18, Step 5: BSER Block Four in the Goal Computation TSD 
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 11

While these sections are relatively clear in describing how generation from nuclear plants is accounted 

for in the emission rate goals, other parts of the EPA proposal suggest the possibility that “new” nuclear 

plants beyond those currently under construction may play a role in state compliance planning. For 

example, in the proposal, EPA explicitly asks for comment on “whether we [EPA] should include in the 

state goals an estimated amount of additional nuclear capacity whose construction is sufficiently likely 

to merit evaluation for potential inclusion in the goal-setting computation.”25 

EIA’s CPPNUC case reflects the possibility that generation from new nuclear capacity beyond units 

already under construction could be counted in the denominator of the compliance formula for existing 

fossil generation units. This case, which is featured prominently among the alternative scenarios in EIA’s 

analysis, reflects only one of many uncertainties in the ultimate specification of the rule that EIA 

evaluated. 

 25 See Section 2 “Cost of CO2 Emission Reductions from Nuclear Generation” Federal Register /Vol. 79, No. 117 /Wednesday, 

June 18, 2014 / Proposed Rules 34871, https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/06/18/2014-13726/carbon-pollutionemission-guidelines-for-existing-stationary-sources-electric-utility-generating#h-90.

Emissions Rate = (coal gen * coal emission rate) + (OG gen *oil/gas emission rate) + (NGCC gen * NGCC emission rate) + other emissions 

 (coal gen) + (oil/gas gen) +( NGCC gen) + (nuclear genunder construction + at risk) + (RE gen) + EE gen
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 12

Scenario descriptions

Table 2 describes the EIA baseline cases and the main Clean Power Plan cases analyzed in this report.26

Table 2. Description of EIA baseline cases and Clean Power Plan cases

Case name Description

Reference (AEO) EIA’s AEO2015 Reference case. AEO2015 presents annual projections 

of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2040. The Reference 

case is generally based on federal, state, and local laws and 

regulations as of October 2014. 

Base Policy (CPP) The Base Policy case models the proposed Clean Power Plan using the 

AEO2015 Reference case as the underlying baseline.

Policy Extension (CPPEXT) The Policy Extension case extends CO2 reduction targets beyond 

2030, in order to reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector by 45% 

below 2005 levels in 2040, using the AEO2015 Reference case as the

baseline. 

Policy with New Nuclear (CPPNUC) The Policy with New Nuclear case models the Clean Power Plan 

assuming that generation from currently unplanned new nuclear 

capacity counts in compliance calculations. The baseline for the 

CPPNUC case is the AEO2015 Reference case.

Policy with Biomass CO2 (CPPBIO195) The Policy with Biomass CO2 case models the Clean Power Plan 

assuming that the emission rate for biomass fuel is 195 pounds CO2

per MMBtu, as assumed by EPA in its Regulatory Impact Analysis, in 

place of EIA’s Reference case assumption that biomass is carbon 

neutral. The baseline for the CPPBIO195 case is the AEO2015

Reference case.

Cases using alternative baselines

High Economic Growth (AEOHEG) EIA’s AEO2015 High Economic Growth case, which reflects higher 

growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) than the Reference case, 

resulting in higher electricity demand and fuel prices.

High Oil and Gas Resource (AEOHOGR) EIA’s AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource case, which reflects moreoptimistic assumptions about domestic oil and natural gas supply 

prospects than the Reference case, resulting in lower natural gas 

prices.

Policy with High Economic Growth (CPPHEG) The CPPHEG case models the proposed Clean Power Plan using the 

AEO2015 High Economic Growth case as the baseline. 

Policy with High Oil and Gas Resource (CPPHOGR) The CPPHOGR case models the proposed Clean Power Plan using the 

AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource case as the baseline. 

 26 See Table 17 for a list of additional sensitivity scenarios.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 13

FIGURES IN THIS REPORT: 

This report includes two primary figure styles. Difference-type figures, such as Figure 3 below, focus on 

the change in a specific year or over a specific time period between Clean Power Plan cases and the 

baseline cases from which they are developed. 

Time-trend figures, such as Figure 9 below, present base and policy case information starting from the 

historical year 2005 through 2040, the end of the AEO2015 projection period. Nearly all time-trend 

figures in this report have two panels. The left-hand panel reports the AEO Reference case (black line) 

together with several Clean Power Plan cases developed from that baseline. The right-hand panel 

reports two alternative baselines, High Economic Growth and High Oil and Gas Resources, along with 

one Clean Power Plan case developed from each respective baseline. Each baseline and its associated 

policy case in the right-hand panel use the same color (darker for the former, lighter for the latter) to 

help readers identify which lines should be compared to identify changes resulting from the Clean 

Power Plan.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 14

Summary of Results

Power sector CO2 emissions declined by 363 million metric tons between 2005 and 2013, due to a 

decline in coal’s generation share and growing use of natural gas and renewables, but the CO2 emissions 

are projected to change only modestly from 2013 through 2040 in the 3 baseline cases used in this 

report. Relative to the AEO2015 Reference case, the projected emissions trajectory is somewhat lower 

in the High Oil and Gas Resource case baseline, which has cheaper natural gas, and somewhat higher in 

the High Economic Growth case, which has higher electricity use. 

The proposed Clean Power Plan would reduce projected power sector CO2 emissions (Figure 3, Table 3 

and Table 4). Reductions in projected emissions in 2030 relative to baseline projections for that year 

range from 484 to 625 million metric tons. The projected power sector emissions level in 2030 ranges

from 1,553 to 1,727 million metric tons across the cases, reflecting a reduction of between 29% and 36%

relative to the 2005 emissions level of 2,416 million metric tons. 

Figure 3. Change in electric power sector CO2 emissions in Clean Power Plan (CPP) cases relative to 

baseline, selected years

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Switching from coal-fired generation to natural gas-fired generation is the predominant compliance 

strategy as implementation begins, with renewables playing a growing role in the mid-2020s and 

beyond (Figures 4 and 5; Tables 3 and 4). Demand-side energy efficiency plays a moderate role in 

compliance, relative to the early role of natural gas and the eventual role of renewables. The economics 

of increased natural gas generation and expanded renewable electricity capacity vary regionally, the key 

determinants being: 1) the natural gas supply and combined cycle utilization rates by region; and 2) the

potential for penetration of renewable generation in regions including states that have no (or low) 

renewable portfolio standards.

-1000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2020 2030 2040

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR

million metric tons
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 15

Figure 4. Change in generation and energy efficiency savings under the Clean Power Plan Base Policy 

case relative to AEO2015 Reference case

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

With continued Clean Power Plan emissions reduction requirements through 2040 under the Policy 

Extension Case (CPPEXT), the shift to higher natural gas-fired generation is maintained through 2030-

35 (Figure 5 and Table 3). 

Figure 5. Change in generation and energy efficiency savings under the Clean Power Plan Policy 

Extension case relative to AEO2015 Reference case

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion kilowatthours

EE savings

Renewable

Natural Gas

Coal

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2016 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion kilowatthours

EE savings

Renewable

Natural Gas

Coal
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 16

If new nuclear power generation were to be treated in the same manner as new renewable 

generation in compliance calculations, the Clean Power Plan would also result in increased nuclear 

generation (Figure 6 and Table 3).

Figure 6. Nuclear generation in AEO2015 Reference and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The Clean Power Plan has a significant effect on projected retirements and additions of electric 

generation capacity (Figures 7 and 8; Tables 3 and 4). Projected coal plant retirements over the 2014-

40 period, which are 40 GW in the AEO2015 Reference case (most before 2017), increase to 90 GW 

(nearly all by 2020) in the Base Policy case (CPP). Retirements of inefficient units fueled by natural gas or 

oil, generally involving primary steam cycles, are also projected to rise. Turning to additions, which are 

dominated by natural gas and renewables over the 2014-40 period in the AEO2015 Reference case, the 

Clean Power Plan significantly increases projected renewable capacity additions in all cases. Under 

favorable natural gas supply conditions, the Clean Power Plan also increases additions of generation 

capacity fueled by natural gas (CPPHOGR). Nuclear capacity is also added in a sensitivity case in which 

new nuclear generation receives the same treatment as new renewable generation in compliance 

calculations (CPPNUC). 

 -

 200

 400

 600

 800

 1,000

2020 2030 2040

billion kilowatthours

AEO CPP CPPNUC
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 17

Figure 7. Change in generating capacity retirements by fuel type in Clean Power Plan cases relative to 

baseline (cumulative, 2014-40)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Figure 8. Change in generating capacity additions by fuel type in Clean Power Plan cases relative to 

baseline (cumulative, 2014-40)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR

gigawatts

Coal Natural Gas/Oil

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR

gigawatts

Natural Gas Nuclear Coal Solar Wind Other renewable
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 18

Coal production and minemouth steam coal prices are lower compared with the AEO2015 Reference 

case in the early years following Clean Power Plan implementation (Figures 9 and 10, and Tables 3 and 

4). In the Base Policy case (CPP) projected U.S. coal production in 2020 and 2025 is 20% and 32% lower 

relative to the AEO2015 baseline level in those years, respectively. All major coal-producing regions 

(West, Interior, and Appalachia) experience negative production impacts in 2020. Expanded generation 

from renewables, rising natural gas prices, and static CPP targets in the post-2030 period in the CPP case 

allow existing coal-fired plants to operate at a higher utilization rate which rises from a low of 60% in 

2024 to 71% in 2040. As a result, coal production edges higher but still remains 20% below the AEO2015 

Reference case level in 2040. The Interior coal-producing region, which primarily includes the Illinois and 

Gulf-lignite Basins, and the West coal-producing region, which primarily includes the Powder River, 

Rocky Mountain, Arizona/New Mexico and Dakota-lignite Basins, account for most of the increase in 

production levels in the CPP case towards the end of the projection period. Average minemouth steam 

coal prices also decline after 2020 and are 8% and 10% lower in 2025 and 2030, respectively in the Base 

Policy Case compared with the AEO2015 Reference case and then remain at least 8% lower than the 

Reference case through 2040. 

Figure 9. Total U.S. coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

million short tons

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 19

Figure 10. Minemouth steam coal prices in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Note: Minemouth steam coal prices include coal delivered to all users of steam coal (buildings, industrial, and electricity sectors 

as well as steam exports).

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The Clean Power Plan’s effect on natural gas production and prices is very sensitive to baseline supply

conditions (Figure 11 and Figure 12; Tables 3 and 4). The Clean Power Plan increases natural gas use 

significantly relative to baseline at the start of Clean Power Plan implementation, but this effect fades 

over time as renewables and efficiency programs increasingly become the dominant compliance 

strategies. While there are significant differences in projected natural gas prices across baselines, with 

persistently lower prices in the High Oil and Gas Resource case, the Clean Power plan itself does not 

significantly move natural gas prices with the exception of an initial impact expected during the first 2-3 

years after the start of implementation. 

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2013 dollars per ton

AEO CPP

 ≈ CPPEXT CPPNUC

 0 20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

 ≈ CPPHEG CPPHOGR

 0
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 20

Figure 11. Natural gas production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Figure 12. Henry Hub spot price for natural gas in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Heat rates for coal-fired generators that remain in use, defined as the energy content of coal 

consumed (in Btu) per kWh of net electricity generated, improve modestly under the Clean Power 

Plan (Figure 13). In all cases, the average heat rate improvement across the fleet of coal-fired 

generators is less than 2%. The projected level of heat rate improvement is sensitive to assumptions 

about natural gas supply that influence natural gas prices, reflecting competition between available 

compliance options.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

trillion cubic feet

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2013 dollars per MMBtu

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 21

Figure 13. Average percentage change in heat rate of coal-fired generators in Clean Power Plan cases, 

relative to baseline cases

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Retail electricity prices and expenditures rise under the Clean Power Plan. Retail electricity prices 

increase most in the early 2020s, in response to initial compliance measures. Increased investment in 

new generating capacity as well as increased use of natural gas for generation lead to electricity prices 

that are 3% to 7% higher on average from 2020-25 in the Clean Power Plan cases, versus the respective 

baseline cases (Figure 14). While prices return to near-baseline levels by 2030 in many regions, prices

remain at elevated levels in some parts of the country. In Florida and the Southeast, the Southern Plains, 

and the Southwest regions the projected electricity prices in 2030 are roughly 10% above baseline in the 

Base Policy case (CPP). Electricity expenditures also generally rise with Clean Power Plan 

implementation, but expenditure changes are smaller in percentage terms than price changes as the 

combination of energy-efficiency programs pursued for compliance purposes and higher electricity 

prices tends to reduce electricity consumption relative to baseline. By 2040, total electricity 

expenditures in the CPP case are slightly below those in the AEO2015 Reference case, as decreases in 

demand more than offset the price increases.

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

2020 2030 2040

percent improvement relative to baseline

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 22

Figure 14. All sectors average retail electricity price in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Biomass generation accounts for only a small share of total generation with or without the Clean Power 

Plan. Implementation of the Clean Power Plan can either increase or decrease projected biomass 

generation depending on the emission rate applied to biomass generation in the compliance calculation. 

Using the 195 pounds/MMBtu emissions rate for biomass assumed in EPA’s Regulatory Impact Analysis, 

as in the CPPBIO195 case, EIA projects that biomass generation in 2020 and 2030 would be 33% and

71% below the respective AEO2015 baseline levels of 24 billion kWh (BkWh) and 41 BkWh for those 

years. In the Base Policy case (CPP), which uses the standard EIA treatment of biomass generation as a 

net zero emissions generation source, EIA projects that biomass generation in 2020 and 2030 would be 

46% above and 5% below the respective AEO2015 baseline levels for those years.

Economic activity indicators, including real gross domestic product (GDP), industrial shipments, and

consumption, are reduced relative to baseline under the Clean Power Plan. Across cases that start 

from the AEO2015 Reference case, the reduction in cumulative GDP over 2015-40 ranges from 0.17%-

0.25%, with the high end reflecting a tighter policy beyond 2030. Implementing the Clean Power Plan 

under baselines that assume high economic growth or high oil and gas resources ameliorate both GDP 

and disposable income impacts relative to outcomes using the AEO2015 Reference case baseline.

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2013 cents per kilowatthour

AEO CPP

≈ CPPEXT CPPNUC

0 6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

≈ CPPHEG CPPHOGR

0
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 23

 

Table 3. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC

Coal 2,013 1,586 1,709 1,340 1,324 1,357 1,713 1,153 1,101 1,165 1,702 1,278 904 1,306 

Natural Gas 761 1,118 1,117 1,382 1,359 1,371 1,371 1,429 1,464 1,401 1,569 1,456 1,560 1,400 

Nuclear 782 789 804 804 804 804 808 808 808 900 833 813 811 962 

Hydro 270 267 292 295 296 295 295 299 298 298 297 300 301 299 

Wind 18 168 232 272 313 269 245 562 575 548 319 602 812 604 

Solar 1 19 51 60 60 60 71 148 151 96 110 275 292 171 

Other renewables 69 76 104 114 112 114 146 146 148 138 183 178 184 166 

Oil/ other 142 47 43 41 41 41 43 40 40 40 43 41 39 41 

Total 4,055 4,070 4,351 4,308 4,308 4,311 4,691 4,584 4,586 4,586 5,056 4,942 4,903 4,948 

Coal 313 304 263 217 210 222 260 209 200 214 260 209 197 214 

Natural gas / Oil 442 470 482 490 491 490 519 518 528 521 595 579 582 578 

Nuclear 100 99 101 101 101 101 102 101 101 113 105 102 102 121 

Hydro 78 79 80 80 80 80 80 81 81 81 80 81 81 81 

Wind 9 61 83 100 114 99 87 192 198 188 110 205 273 206 

Solar 0 13 28 32 32 32 39 76 77 51 61 136 146 87 

Other renewables 12 15 17 18 18 18 20 23 23 22 24 26 28 25 

Other 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 

Total 978 1,065 1,079 1,065 1,074 1,068 1,133 1,226 1,235 1,215 1,261 1,365 1,435 1,337 

Power sector 2,416 2,053 2,107 1,814 1,794 1,825 2,177 1,596 1,553 1,598 2,195 1,691 1,329 1,696 

Residential 11.0 12.2 12.9 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.6 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 14.8 

Commercial 10.1 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.1 

Industrial 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.4 8.6 9.0 8.5 

All Sectors1 9.4 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.1 

Residential 149.0 169.2 183.6 189.8 189.8 189.2 202.9 205.8 205.9 205.7 229.9 230.6 235.0 229.7 

Commercial 128.3 135.7 150.1 155.9 156.1 155.4 169.2 170.9 170.8 170.7 195.4 192.8 196.7 192.1 

Industrial 67.8 65.8 79.6 83.3 83.1 82.8 91.2 92.7 92.9 92.6 101.5 101.7 105.3 101.3 

Total2 345.1 370.7 413.3 429.1 429.0 427.4 463.3 469.4 469.5 469.0 526.7 525.1 537.0 523.1 

Natural Gas 18.6 25.1 29.6 30.9 30.7 30.8 33.9 33.6 33.5 33.5 36.4 35.0 35.2 34.8 

Coal 23.2 20.0 21.7 17.6 17.4 17.7 22.5 16.6 16.1 16.7 22.6 18.3 14.6 18.6 

Oil 13.3 19.2 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.4 

Nuclear 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.4 8.7 8.5 8.5 10.1 

Renewable 6.2 9.0 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.0 11.0 14.8 15.0 14.1 12.5 16.7 18.9 15.5 

Other 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 

Total 69.4 82.7 98.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 103.7 101.2 100.7 101.4 106.6 104.9 103.6 105.4 

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh)

ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY (GW)

ELECTRICITY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (million metric tons)

ELECTRICITY EXPENDITURES (billion 2013 dollars)

ENERGY PRODUCTION (quadrillion Btu)

ELECTRICITY PRICES (2013 cents per kWh)
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 24

Table 3. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years (cont.)

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC

Natural Gas (Henry 

Hub)

10.08 3.73 4.88 5.83 5.78 5.80 5.69 5.86 5.90 5.82 7.85 8.15 8.12 8.11 

Average Delivered 

Natural Gas Price 

to Electric Power 

Sector

9.55 4.40 5.39 6.47 6.36 6.41 6.22 6.38 6.41 6.29 8.28 8.32 8.33 8.13 

Steam Coal 

Minemouth Price 

(2013$/short-ton)

24.79 31.31 32.64 32.75 32.80 32.82 36.49 32.78 33.65 32.77 40.94 37.48 36.06 37.51 

Steam Coal Price 

Delivered to 

Electric Power 

Sector

1.79 2.34 2.38 2.29 2.29 2.30 2.67 2.33 2.32 2.32 2.92 2.61 2.41 2.63 

Brent Spot Price 

(2013 dollars per 

barrel)

63.32 108.64 79.13 79.09 79.10 79.09 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 141.28 141.31 141.47 141.46 

Gross domestic 

product

14,234 15,710 18,801 18,739 18,732 18,744 23,894 23,866 23,855 23,862 29,898 29,886 29,831 29,899 

Total industrial 

shipments 7,464 7,004 8,467 8,423 8,417 8,426 9,870 9,810 9,801 9,810 11,463 11,418 11,374 11,423 

Non-farm 

employment 

(millions) 134 136 149 149 149 149 159 159 159 159 169 169 169 169 

Average Annual 

Change in CPI from 

2013 (%) - 0.00% 1.75% 1.82% 1.83% 1.81% 1.85% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.98% 1.99% 2.00% 1.99%

Liquids 39.1 35.6 36.9 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.3 36.0 36.0 36.1 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.9 

Natural Gas 16.6 18.5 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.9 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.7 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.8 

Electricity 12.5 12.6 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 14.3 14.0 14.0 14.0 15.3 14.8 14.7 14.8 

Coal 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 

 Consumption 100.2 97.1 100.8 99.0 99.0 99.0 102.9 100.4 100.2 100.6 105.7 104.0 102.7 104.4 

 Imports 34.7 24.5 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.2 21.7 21.3 21.3 21.3 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.7 

 Exports 4.5 11.7 18.1 17.7 17.7 17.8 22.4 21.9 21.7 21.9 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.4 

 Production 69.4 82.7 98.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 103.7 101.2 100.7 101.4 106.6 104.9 103.6 105.4 

OTHER PRICES (2013 $/MMBtu, unless otherwise noted)

1

All sector average price includes transportation sector.

2

Total expenditures exclude transportation sector.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS (billion 2009 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion Btu)

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 25

Table 4. Summary results for AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource, High Economic Growth and CPP cases, selected years

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

Coal 2,013 1,586 1,443 1,212 1,733 1,415 1,441 898 1,733 1,293 1,440 910 1,744 1,421 

Natural Gas 761 1,118 1,450 1,610 1,204 1,377 1,832 2,092 1,573 1,422 2,200 2,439 1,705 1,475 

Nuclear 782 789 804 804 804 804 808 808 818 808 808 808 911 863 

Hydro 270 267 289 294 294 305 290 295 297 305 290 295 298 308 

Wind 18 168 229 263 243 315 232 407 301 634 234 412 489 725 

Solar 1 19 51 59 52 70 65 85 80 247 85 106 160 420 

Other renewables 69 76 107 110 106 117 146 128 158 161 175 145 222 207 

Oil/ other 142 47 44 41 43 42 42 39 43 41 42 40 43 42 

Total 4,055 4,070 4,417 4,392 4,480 4,445 4,854 4,753 5,003 4,912 5,274 5,154 5,574 5,461 

Coal 313 304 245 201 265 230 242 173 263 223 242 173 264 223 

Natural gas / Oil 442 470 497 516 490 497 573 607 564 540 674 704 657 629 

Nuclear 100 99 101 101 101 101 101 101 103 102 101 101 115 109 

Hydro 78 79 79 80 80 82 79 80 80 82 79 80 81 83 

Wind 9 61 82 97 87 115 83 142 105 216 84 144 165 245 

Solar 0 13 27 32 28 38 36 45 44 121 48 58 82 200 

Other renewables 12 15 17 18 18 19 20 21 23 26 22 23 32 31 

Other 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 

Total 978 1,065 1,075 1,070 1,094 1,108 1,159 1,196 1,207 1,335 1,275 1,309 1,422 1,546 

Power sector 2,416 2,053 1,973 1,789 2,165 1,886 2,089 1,605 2,262 1,727 2,179 1,701 2,266 1,827 

Residential 11.0 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.4 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.1 12.8 13.1 14.9 15.1 

Commercial 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.8 11.1 10.0 10.4 11.3 11.6 10.2 10.4 12.4 12.6 

Industrial 6.6 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.4 7.7 6.8 7.1 7.9 8.1 7.1 7.2 8.9 8.9 

All Sectors1 9.4 10.1 10.0 10.2 10.6 10.9 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.5 10.3 10.5 12.3 12.4 

Residential 149 169 177 179 190 194 192 194 220 222 211 211 265 264

Commercial 128 136 144 146 153 156 156 158 174 175 174 172 209 205

Industrial 68 66 76 78 86 89 86 88 104 105 90 91 127 126

Total2 345 371 397 403 428 439 434 440 498 502 475 473 602 594

Natural Gas 18.6 25.1 33.1 34.0 30.0 30.8 43.8 45.0 35.3 33.9 52.0 52.2 37.7 36.0 

Coal 23.2 20.0 18.8 16.3 22.0 18.4 19.8 14.0 23.0 18.3 20.3 14.7 23.5 20.0 

Oil 13.3 19.2 32.6 32.6 27.7 27.7 40.5 40.5 27.1 27.0 43.6 43.3 26.0 25.8 

Nuclear 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.5 9.0 

Renewable 6.2 9.0 10.4 10.9 10.7 11.8 10.9 12.6 12.0 16.9 11.4 13.0 15.5 20.1 

Other 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 

Total 69.4 82.7 104.3 103.1 99.7 98.1 124.4 121.6 107.0 105.6 136.8 132.7 113.3 111.9 

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh)

ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY (GW)

ELECTRICITY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (million metric tons)

ELECTRICITY EXPENDITURES (billion 2013 dollars)

ENERGY PRODUCTION (quadrillion Btu)

ELECTRICITY PRICES (2013 cents per kWh)
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 26

Table 4. Summary results for AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource, High Economic Growth and CPP cases, selected years 

(cont.)

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

Natural Gas (Henry 

Hub)

10.08 3.73 3.12 3.38 5.03 5.75 3.67 3.81 6.02 5.81 4.38 4.47 8.45 8.49 

Average Delivered 

Natural Gas Price 

to Electric Power 

Sector

9.55 4.40 3.68 4.07 5.65 6.34 4.15 4.27 6.61 6.31 4.67 4.86 8.71 8.57 

Steam Coal 

Minemouth Price 

(2013$/short-ton)

24.79 31.31 31.18 31.37 32.74 33.37 33.82 31.32 36.61 33.83 37.96 34.78 41.60 38.92 

Steam Coal Price 

Delivered to 

Electric Power 

Sector

1.79 2.34 2.24 2.18 2.39 2.33 2.44 2.12 2.68 2.41 2.67 2.30 2.96 2.73 

Brent Spot Price 

(2013 dollars per 

barrel)

63.32 108.64 75.72 75.40 79.67 79.62 98.15 97.99 107.51 107.24 129.38 129.52 145.17 144.91 

Gross domestic 

product

14,234 15,710 18,841 18,796 19,590 19,526 24,222 24,192 26,146 26,126 30,236 30,186 34,146 34,107 

Total industrial 

shipments 7,464 7,004 8,566 8,536 8,967 8,924 10,349 10,314 11,081 11,022 11,989 11,969 13,786 13,656 

Non-farm 

employment 

(millions) 134 136 149 149 152 152 160 160 166 166 170 170 176 176 

Average Annual 

Change in CPI from 

2013 (%) - 0.00% 1.56% 1.60% 1.67% 1.74% 1.63% 1.63% 1.62% 1.65% 1.85% 1.84% 1.80% 1.82%

Liquids 39.1 35.6 37.4 37.3 37.8 37.6 37.7 37.4 38.3 38.2 37.4 37.3 39.7 39.4 

Natural Gas 16.6 18.5 19.8 19.7 19.2 19.1 21.9 21.9 20.6 20.6 24.1 24.0 22.5 22.4 

Electricity 12.5 12.6 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.7 14.8 14.5 15.3 15.0 15.9 15.5 16.8 16.4 

Coal 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 

 Consumption 100.2 97.1 101.8 100.6 103.1 101.6 106.8 103.7 108.5 107.2 110.8 107.7 116.2 114.9 

 Imports 34.7 24.5 19.9 20.4 21.0 20.9 18.2 18.0 23.5 23.2 18.3 18.4 27.3 26.9 

 Exports 4.5 11.7 22.5 23.0 17.7 17.4 35.7 35.8 21.7 21.4 44.0 43.2 23.9 23.5 

 Production 69.4 82.7 104.3 103.1 99.7 98.1 124.4 121.6 107.0 105.6 136.8 132.7 113.3 111.9 

2

Total expenditures exclude transportation sector.

1

All sector average price includes transportation sector.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS (billion 2009 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion Btu)

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

OTHER PRICES (2013 $/MMBtu, unless otherwise noted)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 27

Detailed Results

Appendices G, H and I provide sets of tables that summarize key results for all cases included in this 

report for 2020, 2030, and 2040.

EIA’s standard reporting tables for all runs in this study are available through the AEO web browser at

http://www.eia.gov/beta/aeo. 

CO2 emissions and compliance strategy indicators

CO2 emissions

In the AEO2015 Reference case (AEO), EIA projects that power sector CO2 emissions will fall below 2005 

levels by 13% in 2020, by 10% in 2030 and 9% in 2040. The expected reductions in CO2 emissions are 

primarily due to moderate natural gas prices, which result in higher utilization of natural gas-fired 

generating capacity and lower use of coal-fired generators, along with renewable energy standards, 

which lead to increased generation from zero-carbon technologies.

EIA projects that the Clean Power Plan would further reduce power sector CO2 emissions through a 

combination of compliance strategies, including re-dispatch, increasing use of lower-carbon 

technologies, heat rate improvements, and energy efficiency. The projected reductions are sensitive to 

many factors, especially assumptions about economic growth, fuel prices, and post-2030 policies. 

Figure 15 compares total electric power sector CO2 emissions across the Clean Power Plan cases and 

baseline cases. In the Base Policy case (CPP), power sector CO2 emissions are 25% below 2005 levels in 

2020 and about 34% below 2005 levels in 2030. By 2040, the corresponding reduction is 30%, as 

continued demand growth leads to additional generation from fossil fuel-fired sources. In the Policy 

Extension case (CPPEXT), the assumed decrease in the emission performance goals after 2030 results in 

a 45% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2040, compared with 2005 levels. 
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 28

Figure 15. Power sector CO2 emissions in Baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Higher economic growth typically results in higher electricity demand, which in turn can lead to higher

power sector CO2 emissions. In the AEO2015 High Economic Growth case (AEOHEG), power sector CO2

emissions are 10% below 2005 levels in 2020 and 6% below 2005 levels in 2030 and 2040. In the CPPHEG 

case, which applies the Clean Power Plan under the AEO2015 High Economic Growth assumptions, 

power sector CO2 emissions in 2020, 2030, and 2040 are 22%, 29%, and 24% lower than 2005 levels, 

respectively. 

Low natural gas prices can lead to lower power sector CO2 emissions due to increased switching from 

coal-fired generation to less-carbon-intensive natural gas-fired generation. In the High Oil and Gas 

Resource case (AEOHOGR), power sector CO2 emissions are 18% below 2005 levels in 2020, 14% below 

2005 levels in 2030, and 10% below 2005 levels in 2040. In the CPPHOGR case, which applies the Clean 

Power Plan under AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource assumptions, power sector CO2 emissions in 

2020, 2030, and 2040 are 26%, 34%, and 30% lower than 2005 levels, respectively. The CPPHOGR case, 

which assumes conditions leading to lower natural gas prices, relies more heavily on switching from coal 

to natural gas, relative to the Base Policy case (CPP).

Table 5. Power sector CO2 emissions reduction relative to 2005 levels in Clean Power Plan cases

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR

2020 -25% -26% -24% -22% -26%

2030 -34% -36% -34% -29% -34%

2040 -30% -45% -30% -24% -30%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

million metric tons CO2

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 29

Total generation by fuel type

In the early years of compliance, re-dispatch from coal-fired generation to natural gas-fired generation is 

the main strategy to achieve emission performance goals. In the longer term, growth in renewable 

generation provides a dominant share of compliance, reflecting both increasingly attractive costs and 

the design of the formula used to calculate compliance. The ultimate generation mix depends on the 

base assumptions regarding future natural gas prices and economic growth.

In all Clean Power Plan cases, total coal-fired generation declines from the 2013 level of 1,586 billion 

kilowatthours (BkWh), which is already well below the 2005 level of 2,013 BkWh. The declines relative 

to baseline coal-fired generation range from 18% to 43% in 2030 (Figure 18). In the Base Policy case

(CPP), coal-fired generation declines to 1,340 BkWh in 2020 and 1,153 BkWh in 2030 (27% below the 

underlying AEO2015 Reference case baseline level). In the Policy Extension case (CPPEXT), where 

emission performance goals continue to decline post-2030, coal-fired generation continues to fall, to 

904 BkWh in 2040.

In the CPPHEG case, coal-fired generators produce a higher level of output under higher demand 

growth, but carry about the same share of total generation relative to the Base Policy case. In the 

CPPHOGR case, lower natural gas prices result in more re-dispatch from coal-fired generation to natural 

gas-fired generation, with coal-fired generation declining to 898 BkWh by 2030 and remaining near that 

level through 2040. In the CPPHOGR case, the share of total generation from coal-fired units drops to 

18% in 2040.

Capacity factor is a measure of the utilization of a generating resource’s total capacity, and is a 

convenient metric for analyzing re-dispatch trends under the Clean Power Plan. In the Base Policy Case, 

the average capacity factor for coal-fired generators decreases from 74% in 2019 to 60% in 2024, as 

regions adjust generator dispatch to meet interim emission performance goals (Figure 16). By 2040, the 

capacity factor for coal-fired generators rebounds to 71%. In the Policy Extension case, capacity factors 

for coal-fired generators level off following the early compliance years, averaging 66% from 2020-30, but 

then decline steadily to 53% by 2040.

Capacity factors for coal-fired generating units are highest among the Clean Power Plan cases under 

AEO2015 High Economic Growth assumptions in the CPPHEG case, rebounding from 61% in 2024 to 74% 

in 2040 due to higher electricity demand growth and increased use of other compliance options, which 

offset the carbon intensity impact of coal-fired generation. Capacity factors for coal-fired generating 

units are lowest in the CPPHOGR case, averaging 61% from 2020 through 2040, due to low natural gas 

prices in the underlying AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource base case.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 30

Figure 16. Average capacity factor for coal-fired generating units in Baseline and Clean Power Plan 

cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Natural gas-fired generation increases substantially in the early 2020s across all cases, as an initial 

compliance strategy. Natural gas-fired generation increases from 1,118 BkWh in 2013 to 1,382 BkWh in 

2020 in the Base Policy case, 24% above the underlying AEO2015 Reference case baseline level. 

However, by 2030, natural gas-fired generation is near its baseline Reference case levels, due to lower 

demand requiring less new natural gas-fired capacity and an increased reliance on renewable generation 

for compliance. The share of total generation from natural gas grows from 27% to 32% from 2013-20 in 

the Base Policy case, and remains at or above 30% throughout most of the projection. In the Policy 

Extension case, natural gas-fired generation continues to grow beyond 2030, displacing more coal-fired 

generation when emission performance goals continue to decline (become more stringent), and the 

natural gas share remains steady between 32% and 33% from 2031 to 2040. Only the CPPHOGR case, 

which uses AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource assumptions, sees continued growth in the share of 

natural gas-fired generation throughout the projection, reaching 47% in 2040, as lower natural gas 

prices lead to greater reliance on natural gas-fired compliance strategies over renewables.

Capacity factors for natural gas combined cycle plants experience a sharp ramp-up at the beginning of 

the compliance period, peaking in 2020 at 57% in the Base Policy case and 56% in the Policy Extension 

case, before falling to 45% and 46%, respectively, in 2040 (Figure 17). By contrast, natural gas-fired 

combined cycle plants have their highest capacity factors among the Clean Power Plan cases in the 

CPPHOGR case, averaging 62% between 2020 and 2040.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

percent

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 31

Figure 17. Average capacity factor for natural gas combined cycle plants in Baseline and Clean Power 

Plan cases, 2013-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

New renewable generation represents an important strategy for attaining compliance requirements. In 

the Base Policy case, as emission performance goals decline (become more stringent) over the interim 

compliance period, renewable generation increases to 1,154 BkWh in 2030 (53% above the AEO2015

Reference case and more than double 2013 levels). The role of renewables in the compliance mix grows 

over time. As interim Clean Power Plan requirements begin in 2020, natural-gas fired combined cycle 

units predominate among the alternatives to existing coal-fired generation, with natural gas generation 

increasing by 369 BkWh over baseline levels, while coal generation declines by 369 BkWh. By 2025, 

however, renewable generation contributes more to the shifting generation mix and by 2030 the 

increase in renewable generation relative to the AEO is 398 BkWh, compared with a decline in coal 

generation of 561 BkWh.

Renewable generation continues to increase beyond 2030 in the Base Policy case, as rising natural gas 

prices make re-dispatch from coal to natural gas a less economically attractive compliance mechanism. 

In both the Policy Extension case and the CPPHEG case, renewable generation represents over 30% of 

total generation in 2040, with higher levels of renewable generation required to meet the declining 

goals, or to maintain the goals under more robust electricity demand growth, respectively. 

However, the use of renewables as the primary long-term compliance mechanism is sensitive to fuel 

price assumptions. In the CPPHOGR case, which assumes AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource 

conditions, renewable generation represents less than 20% of total generation throughout the 

projection as regions tend to choose compliance strategies involving re-dispatch and displacement of 

existing coal-fired generation with generation from new natural gas-fired combined cycle capacity.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

percent

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 32

Figure 18. Change in electricity generation by fuel in Clean Power Plan cases relative to baseline

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Heat rate improvement

Heat rate is a measure of the thermal efficiency of a power plant, representing the amount of energy, in 

Btu, used to generate one kilowatthour of net electricity generation. NEMS incorporates logic that 

allows coal-fired generating units to undertake heat rate improvement projects, whenever it is 

economic to do so under baseline conditions or when the Clean Power Plan is implemented. EIA’s 

analysis indicates that heat rate improvement activities would significantly increase under the proposed 

rule. Most heat rate improvement activity takes place in the early years of compliance. 

In the Base Policy case, the average heat rate for coal-fired generating units reaches its most efficient 

point, 10,170 British thermal units per kilowatthour (Btu/kWh), in 2023 (a 1.9% improvement over the 

underlying baseline AEO2015 Reference case). Through the remainder of the projection, the average 

heat rate for coal-fired generating units rises slightly, as more non-fossil fuel generating sources come 

online and less-efficient coal-fired generating units achieve higher production levels without violating 

regional emission performance goals. 

Table 6 presents average heat rates for coal-fired generating units, and the total capacity performing 

heat rate improvement projects, in the baseline and Clean Power Plan cases for 2020, 2030, and 2040.

The reported heat rates apply to coal-fired generation fleets and utilization rates that vary considerably 

across cases. For this reason, differences in heat rates across cases cannot be attributed only to 

differences in heat rate improvement investments. 

In the Base Policy case, 75 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity undertake heat rate improvement projects by 

2040, compared with 13 gigawatts in the underlying baseline AEO2015 Reference case. In the Policy 

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

billion kilowatthours

Nuclear Renewable Coal Natural Gas Oil/other

2020 2030 2040
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 33

Extension case, there is less heat rate improvement activity (57 gigawatts in 2040) due to a combination 

of factors: higher overall coal-fired generation capacity retirements, along with regional decisions to 

pursue other compliance options early in the projection, in anticipation of increasingly stringent post2030 requirements. 

Heat rate improvement activity is economic if the requisite capital, operations, and maintenance costs 

are lower than expected fuel cost savings. When natural gas prices are low, it is less costly to substitute 

natural gas-fired generation for coal-fired generation, and regions find it less economically attractive to 

use heat rate improvement as a compliance mechanism. In the CPPHOGR case, which evaluates the 

Clean Power Plan under lower natural gas prices using AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource assumptions, 

43 gigawatts of capacity undertake heat rate improvement activity by 2040. This represents a 32 

gigawatt increase over the underlying base case, but is nearly 42% lower than the amount of capacity 

undertaking heat rate improvement in the Base Policy case, and 44% lower than the amount in the 

CPPHEG case, which assumes AEO2015 High Economic Growth conditions. 

Figure 19 illustrates the average heat rate for coal-fired generators in the Clean Power Plan cases and 

the respective baseline cases. Across cases, the overall level of heat rate improvement is modest. 

Relative to baseline, the highest level of heat rate improvement occurs in the Base Policy case. Lower 

levels of heat rate improvement are realized when the Clean Power Plan emission performance goals 

are extended (Policy Extension) because other compliance options are more economic when greater 

reductions in the average emission rate are required.

Table 6. Summary of heat rates and capacity performing heat rate improvement in Baseline and Clean 

Power Plan cases

Average heat rate for coal-fired units 

(Btu/kWh)

Gigawatts of capacity 

undertaking HRI

Case 2020 2030 2040 Column2 2020 2030 2040

AEO 10,372 10,370 10,375 7 13 13

AEOHEG 10,383 10,381 10,373 7 13 13

AEOHOGR 10,336 10,353 10,347 7 10 12

CPP 10,198 10,215 10,220 68 74 75

CPPEXT 10,221 10,249 10,315 51 55 57

CPPNUC 10,177 10,219 10,222 74 78 80

CPPHEG 10,204 10,255 10,248 68 74 77

CPPHOGR 10,230 10,216 10,225 38 43 43

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 34

Figure 19. Average heat rate of coal-fired generators in Baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Retirements and capacity additions

Retirements

The emission performance goals in the Clean Power Plan lead to a reduced reliance on existing fossil 

fuel-fired plants, which results in more retirements. Under the Clean Power Plan, coal-fired capacity 

accounts for most of the additional retirements relative to the underlying baseline cases (Figure 20). In 

the AEO2015 Reference case, total retirements of existing capacity are about 90 gigawatts. Coal-fired 

and natural gas/oil-fired capacity account for 40 gigawatts and 46 gigawatts of the total retirements, 

respectively. In the Base Policy case, 90 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity and 62 gigawatts of natural 

gas/oil-fired capacity retires. In the Policy Extension case, additional retirements occur as the emission 

performance goals continue decreasing after 2030, resulting in total retirements of about 179 gigawatts, 

including 101 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity and 74 gigawatts of natural gas/oil-fired capacity.

Compared with the AEO2015 Reference case, the AEO2015 High Economic Growth case projects higher 

demand growth, and the AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource case projects lower natural gas prices. The 

CPPHEG and CPPHOGR cases examine the impacts of the Clean Power Plan under higher demand and 

lower fuel prices, respectively. With higher electricity demand (CPPHEG), the Clean Power Plan increases 

total retirements by 43 gigawatts and most of this increment is coal-fired capacity. With lower natural 

gas prices (CPPHOGR), the emission performance goals in the Clean Power Plan result in 88 gigawatts of 

additional retirements, about 70% of which is attributed to coal-fired capacity (Figure 20).

9900

10000

10100

10200

10300

10400

10500

10600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Btu per kilowatthour

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

 ≈

 0 9900

10000

10100

10200

10300

10400

10500

10600

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR ≈

 0
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 35

Figure 20. Change in generating capacity retirements by fuel type in Clean Power Plan cases relative to 

baseline (cumulative, 2014-40)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Capacity additions

The Clean Power Plan alters the outlook for capacity builds in the electric power sector, substantially 

increasing builds of renewable electricity capacity in most of the cases analyzed. The increase in 

renewable capacity builds is largely attributable to the inclusion of new renewable generation in the 

denominator of EPA’s calculation of the achieved intensity standard. In the Base Policy case, cumulative 

additions of renewable electricity generation capacity through 2040 increase by 174 gigawatts, or 160%,

as compared with the underlying AEO2015 Reference case (Figure 21). In the Extended Policies case, 

renewable electricity generation capacity additions increase by another 79 gigawatts, to 362 gigawatts 

overall, as regions continue to add zero-carbon resources to meet post-2030 emission performance 

goals. The largest amount of renewable electricity generation capacity additions occur under AEO2015

High Economic Growth conditions in the CPPHEG case (393 gigawatts). The least amount of renewable 

electricity generation capacity additions occur in the CPPHOGR case, as low natural gas prices shift the 

economics of regional compliance strategies away from building new zero-carbon generating capacity,

and towards the use of re-dispatch and the construction of new natural gas combined cycle capacity to 

offset generation from existing sources. Nonetheless, the 138 gigawatts of renewable electricity 

generation capacity additions in the CPPHOGR case are more than double the level in the underlying 

AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource base case.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR

gigawatts

Coal Natural Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewable
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 36

Figure 21. Change in cumulative capacity additions, 2014-40, in Clean Power Plan cases relative to 

baseline

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Wind power plays an important role in Clean Power Plan compliance, with wind electricity generation 

capacity more than tripling over 2013 levels by 2040 in the Base Policy case (205 gigawatts in 2040 vs. 61 

gigawatts in 2013). Most of the increase in wind electricity generation capacity occurs from 2020-25 

(Figure 22), as regions shift their electricity capacity mixes to achieve interim emission performance 

goals. As a result, in the Base Policy case, installed wind electricity generation capacity in 2025 (188 

gigawatts) is more than double the level in the underlying AEO2015 Reference case (84 gigawatts). Wind 

electricity generation capacity continues to expand moderately after 2030, as regions add zero-carbon 

capacity to maintain their final emission performance levels.

27 This trend also holds under AEO2015 High 

Economic Growth assumptions, in the CPPHEG case. In the Policy Extension case, emission performance 

goals continue to decrease (becoming more stringent) throughout the 2030s, and wind electricity 

generation capacity continues to play a major role in attaining tightening carbon intensity limits on

existing resources. The most substantial amount of post-2030 wind electricity generation capacity 

expansion occurs in the Policy Extension case, with total installed capacity growing from 198 gigawatts

in 2030 to 273 gigawatts in 2040. In the CPPHOGR case, following a period of expansion between 2020 

and 2025, wind electricity generation capacity is relatively flat through the late 2020s and 2030s as 

lower fuel prices lead regions to favor natural gas-fired compliance strategies.

 27 Additionally, wind is increasingly economically competitive with other resource types in the post-2030 timeframe, as can be 

seen by the late-projection increase in wind electricity generation capacity in the Reference case.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR

gigawatts

Natural Gas Nuclear Coal Solar Wind Other renewable
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 37

Figure 22. Change in installed wind generating capacity in Clean Power Plan cases relative to baseline

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The Base Policy case projects 136 gigawatts of installed solar electricity generating capacity in 2040, an 

increase of 76 gigawatts over the underlying AEO2015 Reference case (Figure 23), as regions with rich 

solar resources leverage solar technology to reduce carbon intensity and reduce fuel costs. However, 

solar electricity generation capacity additions vary widely across cases, heavily dependent on the 

projected paths of electricity use and natural gas prices. The CPPHEG case assumes high economic 

growth and has the highest total electricity use among the Clean Power Plan cases. The CPPHEG case 

projects 200 gigawatts of installed solar electricity generation capacity in 2040 (versus 82 gigawatts in 

the underlying High Economic Growth base case). By contrast, the CPPHOGR case, which assumes 

AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource conditions and low natural gas prices, projects a much smaller 

increase in solar electricity generation capacity (58 gigawatts in the CPPHOGR case vs. 48 gigawatts in 

the High Oil and Gas Resource base case). Across the Clean Power Plan cases, all of the solar electricity 

generation capacity additions above the Reference case level employ solar photovoltaic technology (as 

opposed to solar thermal technology).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

gigawatts

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 38

Figure 23. Change in installed solar generating capacity in Clean Power Plan cases relative to baseline

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Adding new natural gas-fired combined cycle (NGCC) electricity generation capacity can lead to the 

displacement of generation from affected existing sources in dispatch, which can in turn help a region 

achieve its Clean Power Plan emission performance goals. However, generation from new natural gasfired units, unlike new renewable generation, is not included in the base (denominator) generation total 

used to calculate the emission intensity of existing fossil generation for compliance purposes. Across the 

cases analyzed, the use of this option depends on the economics of natural gas markets, compliance 

assumptions, and the relative amount of renewable electricity generation capacity additions. In most 

cases, the total NGCC electricity generation capacity remains near baseline levels. Under AEO2015 High 

Oil and Gas Resource assumptions, in the CPPHOGR case, lower natural gas prices lead regions to rely 

more heavily on natural gas-fired options to reduce the CO2 emissions from existing sources, as NGCC 

electricity generation capacity increases from 252 gigawatts in 2020 to 334 gigawatts in 2030, and 386 

gigawatts in 2040, 65 gigawatts more than the AEO2015 High Oil and Gas resource case (Figure 24).

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

gigawatts

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR
    May 2015   

U.S. Energy Information Administration   |   Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 40

Figure 24. Change in installed natural gas‐fired combined cycle capacity in Clean Power Plan cases

relative to baseline

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

New nuclear 

New nuclear capacity represents another zero‐carbon technology that could potentially reduce overall

CO2 emissions. The Base Policy with New Nuclear case (CPPNUC) allows credit for generation from

unplanned new nuclear plants in compliance calculations. The primary result is that the new nuclear

displaces some of the renewable capacity additions as a means of compliance.

Table 7. Nuclear power projections in three cases (gigawatts)

AEO CPP CPPNUC

Nuclear capacity (gigawatts)    

2020 101 101 101

2030 102 101 113

2040 105 102 121

   

Nuclear Generation Share (percent)

2020 18 19 19

2030 17 18 20

2040 16 16 19

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

gigawatts

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 40

Demand reduction through incremental efficiency programs

Delivered electricity consumption in the buildings (residential and commercial) sector in 2030 is 2.6%

lower in the Base Policy case than in the Reference case (Figure 25). Both energy efficiency (EE) program 

activity and consumer response to higher electricity prices contribute to the reduction. Buildings sector 

demand reductions in the four other Clean Power Plan cases are similar, ranging from 2.4% in the 

CPPHEG case to 2.6% in the Policy with New Nuclear case. When the energy efficiency compliance 

option is excluded from Clean Power Plan actions, electricity consumption in 2030 in buildings is 0.8%

lower than in the Reference case based on electricity price effects alone. If direct rebate levels for the 

efficiency compliance option increase to 25% of the installed cost of efficient equipment, buildings 

electricity consumption in 2030 is 4.9% below the Reference case.28 However, these higher rebate levels 

are not cost-effective compliance measures under the set of assumptions in this analysis. Renewable 

energy, natural gas, and other supply-side measures trade off against demand reductions to achieve 

compliance with the Clean Power Plan’s goals; the incremental cost of saved energy is less than the 

required program investment costs at higher assumed rebate levels. Further discussion of the energy 

efficiency sensitivity cases is provided in the Additional Sensitivity case section.

The Base Policy case represents a roughly 17% increase in average annual program expenditures from 

2012 national energy efficiency program activity over the interim compliance period. In combination 

with Reference case total demand reductions of about 0.5% per year, it yields just over 0.7% per year in 

national program-induced savings (if compared with a hypothetical case where no efficiency spending 

took place). Price-related demand reductions occur in addition to program-induced reductions, resulting 

in the national change in electric sales from Reference case levels shown in the Clean Power Plan cases.

Using the NEMS end-use modeling approach, EIA’s projection of the energy efficiency savings achieved 

by 2030 for the Base Policy case totals 81 BkWh for use in emission performance calculations. For the 

four other Clean Power Plan cases, the energy savings range from a high of 80 BkWh in the Policy with 

New Nuclear case to a low of 75 BkWh in the CPPHEG case.

 28 The methodology underlying modeled efficiency incentives for the Clean Power Plan is described in detail in Appendix F.

Table 26 provides assumed rebate levels and timing for efficiency measures by Census division in the Base Policy case.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 41

Figure 25. Delivered buildings electricity consumption, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Increased utility costs to meet plan requirements are assumed to be passed along to consumers through 

higher electricity prices. Despite lower residential electricity demand, average annual household 

electricity bills during the interim compliance period (2020-29) are 3.0% higher in the Base Policy case 

than in the Reference case. Annual household electricity bills average 2.0% higher during the same 

period in CPPHEG relative to the AEOHEG case as higher economic growth spreads costs across a larger 

number of households. 

Residential consumers also spend more for energy-using equipment in the Base Policy case relative to 

the Reference case. By 2030, a net cumulative investment of $2.4 billion in equipment and building shell 

measures is made by residential consumers after receiving cumulative rebates totaling $6.8 billion.

Commercial consumers as a whole invest less in new equipment in the Base Policy case than in the 

Reference case. By 2030, commercial consumers spend $0.9 billion less cumulatively on new equipment, 

because $7.4 billion in cumulative rebates are realized by the commercial sector.

Electricity prices

Average retail electricity prices increase, particularly in the near term, as a result of the measures used

to comply with the Clean Power Plan. The increased investment in new electricity generation capacity as 

well as the increased use of natural gas for electricity generation leads to electricity prices in 2020 that 

are 2% to 5% higher in the compliance cases than the respective base prices (Table 8).

29 The delivered 

 29 In competitive pricing, the generation component consists of the marginal energy cost and a capacity payment to represent 

the marginal cost of meeting reliability requirements (i.e., reserve margins). The marginal energy cost will reflect the Clean 

Power Plan compliance costs that are related to re-dispatch, but will not account for the incremental investment that is 

incurred specifically to meet the intensity standard. Therefore, an additional capacity-related payment is calculated for the 

competitive regions to represent the marginal investment-related costs associated with new plants built to comply with the 

standards and is added to the retail price.

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion kilowatthours

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC ≈

 0 2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000

3100

3200

3300

3400

3500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR ≈

 0
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 42

price of natural gas is also higher as a result of the increased consumption, and is correspondingly 

passed through to electricity rates. Over the longer term, reliance on natural gas for compliance declines 

and the fuel price drops back closer to reference case levels, resulting in less of an impact on the 

electricity price. In 2030, the electricity prices are about 3% to 4% above reference case levels. In 2040, 

only the Policy Extension case has an average electricity price more than 3% above its baseline price. In 

general, electricity generation prices in the Clean Power Plan cases remain above their respective 

baseline case prices in the later years of the forecast because recovery of new generating assets occurs 

over time, offsetting reductions in fuel expenses. The transmission and distribution prices are also 

projected to be higher in the compliance cases. The costs of energy-efficiency programs are assumed to 

be recovered through distribution charges, and transmission costs will increase as the amount of new 

generating capacity is added and if new interregional transmission capacity is needed.

Table 8. Change in average electricity price components in five cases, relative to baseline levels

Generation price Transmission and Distribution 

price Total price

2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040

CPP 5.9% 2.8% 1.2% 3.3% 5.8% 5.0% 4.9% 4.0% 2.6%

CPPEXT 5.8% 2.8% 5.8% 3.5% 6.0% 6.2% 4.9% 4.0% 5.9%

CPPNUC 5.2% 2.7% 0.6% 3.2% 5.6% 4.8% 4.4% 3.8% 2.1%

CPPHEG 3.4% 1.1% -0.8% 3.5% 5.7% 5.0% 3.4% 2.8% 1.1%

CPPHOGR 1.5% 2.5% 0.0% 2.9% 5.4% 4.9% 2.0% 3.7% 2.1%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The electricity price increases are generally lowest in the CPPHOGR case, with less of an impact in 2020 

because the AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource case is already shifting into natural gas generation, and 

the increased resource availability results in less of a natural gas price increase under the higher usage 

case. Although prices increase in the CPPHOGR case relative to the AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource 

case, they are from 3% to 12% below the Reference case prices. In the CPPHEG case, the generation 

price drops slightly below its baseline by 2040, because the underlying High Economic Growth case 

already has relatively high prices reflecting increased investment in new capacity to meet the greater 

demand growth, and fuel costs that rise faster than the Reference case. The addition of the Clean Power 

Plan under these conditions results in fuel costs that are reduced enough to offset additional capital 

costs in the later years of the forecast. In the Base Policy case (CPP), electricity prices increase in 2020 

relative to the Reference case in all regions, although the level of the impact varies (Table 9). As in the 

national average, the price impact tends to be the highest in the earlier years, when shifting to natural 

gas is the main compliance option and natural gas prices rise. To some extent, regions that are able to 

build renewable capacity more quickly will have less of an early price impact. Additionally, the level of 

the regional intensity standard is also a factor, as some regions appear to be closer to meeting the 

standard under the Reference case projections. For example, because California already has a carbon 

policy and a state renewable portfolio standard, EIA’s results show that the Reference case generation 

mix already comes close to meeting California’s Clean Power Plan standard. As a result, the price impact 

in California is fairly minimal throughout the projection.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 43

Table 9. Change in regional retail electricity prices in two cases, relative to baseline levels30

Base Policy Case Policy Extension Case

2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040

U.S. average 4.9% 4.0% 2.6% 4.9% 4.0% 5.9%

Texas 7.3% 0.7% 3.6% 7.2% 0.4% 4.8%

Florida 9.7% 10.9% 6.2% 9.3% 11.6% 8.4%

Eastern Wisconsin 7.0% 6.7% 5.1% 7.5% 7.4% 11.8%

Northern Plains 2.9% 6.3% 2.2% 2.2% 5.8% 3.4%

New England 3.1% -1.2% 1.0% 3.1% -2.3% 1.1%

New York City 5.7% -0.2% 1.8% 6.6% -2.3% 2.0%

Long Island 2.6% -1.8% 0.4% 4.4% -2.0% 0.2%

Upstate New York 5.1% -0.5% 2.1% 4.9% 0.2% 2.7%

Mid Atlantic 4.4% 0.4% 1.3% 6.8% -2.8% 3.1%

Lower Michigan 4.0% 6.9% 3.5% 7.7% 4.9% 6.9%

Great Lakes 1.8% -0.8% -1.9% 0.8% -0.4% 5.3%

Mississippi Delta 9.7% 7.0% 7.0% 8.3% 8.8% 8.1%

Mississippi Basin 5.9% 4.6% 0.7% 5.3% 6.0% 9.0%

Southeast 5.2% 10.4% 8.9% 4.8% 10.1% 16.0%

Tennessee Valley 9.4% 8.2% 4.8% 9.6% 11.4% 13.9%

Virginia-Carolina 5.0% 6.8% 4.4% 5.3% 7.7% 7.5%

Central Plains 1.0% 1.7% -3.1% 0.9% 1.6% 0.3%

Southern Plains 8.4% 10.6% 5.0% 8.6% 10.8% 7.3%

Southwest 7.7% 11.1% 5.4% 6.2% 10.8% 7.8%

California 2.2% 0.6% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 1.6%

Northwest 0.8% 2.6% -1.1% 0.5% 3.1% 1.0%

Rocky Mountain 6.4% 7.0% 0.7% 6.4% 8.2% 7.9%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In most regions the price impact declines by 2040, but several regions in the southeastern United States 

(Florida, Southeast, Mississippi Delta), as well as the Southwest and Eastern Wisconsin, have prices that 

are more than 5% above the reference case levels in 2040 in the Base Policy case. Wind resource 

potential is relatively low in some of these regions, and instead they tend to build relatively more 

expensive solar photovoltaic capacity to offset their fossil generation and meet emission performance 

goals. The New England and New York regions tend to have among the lowest price increases by 2040. 

Several regions (Central Plains, Great Lakes and Northwest) have lower prices by 2040 in the Base Policy 

case relative to the Reference case. In general, these tend to be regions with favorable wind resources.

Implementation of the Clean Power Plan generally results in higher electricity expenditures, but changes 

in expenditures are lower in percentage terms than price changes as the combination of energy 

 30 Prices used in the creation of this table are all-sectors average (Residential, Commercial, Industrial and Transportation).

price change from baseline

Decreasing Median (4.9%) Increasing
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 44

efficiency programs pursued for compliance purposes and higher electricity prices tend to reduce 

electricity consumption relative to baseline levels. 

Table 10. Change in electricity expenditures by sector in five cases, relative to baseline levels 

Residential Commercial Industrial

2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040

CPP 3.4% 1.4% 0.3% 3.9% 1.1% -1.3% 4.6% 1.6% 0.2%

CPPEXT 3.4% 1.5% 2.3% 4.0% 0.9% 0.7% 4.3% 1.8% 3.7%

CPPNUC 3.1% 1.4% -0.1% 3.5% 0.9% -1.7% 4.0% 1.5% -0.2%

CPPHEG 2.4% 0.8% -0.6% 2.5% 0.2% -2.3% 3.1% 1.1% -1.0%

CPPHOGR 1.4% 1.3% -0.1% 1.5% 0.9% -1.7% 2.3% 2.3% 0.6%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Natural gas

Regardless of the underlying case, the Clean Power Plan results in a rapid increase in consumption of 

natural gas in the electric power sector when implementation begins in 2020. When imposed under 

AEO2015 Reference and High Economic Growth case assumptions, 2020 is the peak year of projected 

natural gas consumption for the electric power sector (Figure 26), and the year of the greatest increase 

over the comparative underlying base case. Following the early 2020s, the increase over the base 

declines and eventually results in less gas consumption by power generators compared with the 

underlying baseline case. In the Policy Extension case, increased natural gas consumption by electric 

power generators over the AEO2015 Reference case continues through 2038. 

Under AEO2015 High Economic Growth case assumptions, which project higher natural gas prices than 

the AEO2015 Reference case, the use of natural gas-fired generation is a less-attractive option to 

achieve regional emission performance goals under the Clean Power Plan. In the CPPHEG case, there is a 

smaller increase in power sector gas consumption in 2020, and the move from using more gas to less gas 

than the underlying case occurs earlier (2025 versus 2032 under Reference case conditions). Relatively 

low natural gas prices in the CPPHOGR case make natural gas a comparatively economical fuel for 

electricity generation, driving a continued increase in the difference in natural gas consumption over the 

underlying AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource case beyond 2020 to 2024. As with the other cases, this 

increase over the base volumes declines thereafter, but stays at a notably higher level. 
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 45

Figure 26. Electric power sector natural gas consumption in baseline and CPP cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Driven by changes in natural gas consumption in the electric power sector, overall consumption of 

natural gas follows a similar pattern, and the differences between the Clean Power Plan cases and their 

respective base cases for electricity and total natural gas consumption are nearly equal. Total natural 

gas consumption across other sectors only modestly decreases under Reference and High Oil and Gas 

Resource assumptions under the Clean Power Plan. Total delivered natural gas consumption across 

other sectors falls less than 2.1% and 1.1%, respectively, in any one year, and less than 1% on average 

from 2020-40. Under High Economic Growth assumptions, post-2025 natural gas consumption is slightly 

higher in other sectors, 0.3% on average.

In the early compliance years of the Clean Power Plan, a combination of increased production and lower 

LNG exports meets the increase in electric power sector natural gas demand. With the exception of the 

CPPHEG case, dry natural gas production over the 2020 to 2030 period is, on average, 0.9% to 3.6% 

higher in the Clean Power Plan cases than in the respective base cases. Of this increased production, 

55% to 84% comes from increased production from shale plays. In particular, natural gas production is 

higher in the 2020-21 timeframe (even in the CPPHEG case), when there is also a short-term run-up in 

natural gas supply prices (Table 11), as the market balances to the higher level of demand. Although 

there might be a level of market anticipation for increased natural gas demand in 2020, supply pressures 

drive the increase in prices during the early years. As consumption levels in the Clean Power Plan cases 

move closer to their base levels, if not below them, relative production levels follow suit, and price 

differences decline in the second half of the projection period.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

trillion cubic feet

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 46

Table 11. Differences in natural gas production from baseline in the CPP cases

CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPHEG CPPHOGR

2015-

2019

2020-

2029

2030-

2040

2015-

2019

2020-

2029

2030-

2040

2015-

2019

2020-

2029

2030-

2040

2015-

2019

2020-

2029

2030-

2040

2015-

2019

2020-

2029

2030-

2040

United States Total 0% 1% -2% 0% 0% -2% 0% 1% -3% 0% -1% -4% 0% 4% 1%

 Lower 48 Onshore 0% 1% -3% 0% 0% -2% 0% 1% -3% 0% -1% -5% 0% 4% 1%

 Tight Gas 0% 0% -4% 0% 0% -3% 0% 0% -4% 0% -1% -5% 0% 3% 1%

 Shale Gas and 

Tight Oil Plays 0% 1% -3% 1% 0% -3% 0% 1% -4% 0% -2% -6% 0% 5% 2%

 Coalbed 

 Methane 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

 Other 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

 Lower 48 Offshore 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% -1% 0% 0% 1%

 State 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

 Federal 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% -1% 0% 0% 1%

 Alaska 0% 24% 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

 Onshore 0% 24% 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Lower 48 Onshore – by Region

 Northeast 0% 4% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% -3% 0% 4% 2%

 Gulf Coast 1% 0% -7% 1% -1% -6% 1% 0% -7% 0% -4% -9% 1% 7% 2%

 Midcontinent 0% 0% -3% 0% -1% -2% 0% 0% -3% 0% -2% -5% 1% 4% 3%

 Southwest 0% 0% -1% 0% 0% -1% 0% 0% -1% 0% -1% -2% 0% 1% 1%

 Rocky Mountain 0% 0% -2% 0% -1% -2% 0% 0% -2% 0% -1% -2% 0% 2% 0%

 West Coast 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The largest changes in natural gas production occur in the Northeast and Gulf Coast regions in the Clean 

Power Plan cases compared with their respective base cases. In the CPP, CPPEXT, and CPPNUC cases, the 

increases in production over their respective baselines during the 2020-29 period are driven by 

increases in the Northeast. In these cases, production from the Marcellus play has the highest 

percentage increase during that period. During 2030-40, when electric generators consume less natural 

gas than in their respective base cases, natural gas production similarly decreases; with the relatively 

low prices in the CPPHOGR case, natural gas consumers consume more than the baseline and natural 

gas production is higher. The largest declines occur in the Gulf Coast, with natural gas production 

averaging 6% to 9% less in the Clean Power Plan cases compared with their baselines. In particular, 

natural gas production from the Eagle Ford shale play falls by 7% to 9% in those cases during that 

period. 
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 47

Figure 27. Average delivered natural gas prices to the electric power sector in baseline and Clean 

Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

On average from 2015-40, net natural gas exports range from 3% lower (CPPHOGR) to 12% lower 

(CPPEXT) in the Clean Power Plan cases compared with the underlying base cases. Reduced exports, 

primarily comprised of domestic LNG, drive the decrease, with the exception of the CPPHOGR case. Net 

exports have a similar pattern with other segments of the natural gas market in the Clean Power Plan 

cases, with the greatest impact occurring in the earlier years of the policy’s implementation. However, 

lower LNG export capacity build-out during the early years of the projection period, in anticipation of 

higher prices, contributes to the overall decrease in LNG exports over the projection period. Under high 

oil and gas resource assumptions, natural gas prices are relatively low whether or not the Clean Power 

Plan is implemented, and therefore, LNG exports grow similarly in the CPPHOGR case and its underlying 

base case through 2034.

Coal

The demand for coal in the power sector declines in every policy case (with respect to its baseline) as a 

result of Clean Power Plan implementation. Total coal production in the core policy cases is 15% to 21%

lower in 2020 compared with baseline projections (Figure 28). In 2040, the comparable decrease in coal 

production ranges between 16% and 38%. Among the core policy cases, the largest falloff from baseline 

projections occurs in the Policy Extension case (CPPEXT) where emission performance goals continue to 

tighten rather than remaining constant after 2030. However, the lowest level of total coal production 

among the policy cases occurs under the high oil and gas resource availability case (CPPHOGR).

After 2024, coal production in the Base Policy case (CPP) begins to rise from its low of 741 million tons. 

Coal production increases by 151 million tons after 2024, as an increase in electricity demand growth in 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2013 dollars per million Btu

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 48

combination with expanded use of renewables, rising natural gas prices, and static CPP targets in the 

post-2030 period allows greater utilization of the existing coal-fired fleet. In 2040, coal production 

reaches 892 million tons in the Base Policy case. Lower coal demand in three adjacent southeastern

Census divisions (South Atlantic, East South Central, and West South Central) contributes to 75% of the 

decline in 2040 coal production projected in the Base Policy case (CPP). If Clean Power Plan emission 

performance goals continue to decline post-2030 (Policy Extension case), total coal production also

continues to decline, dropping by 48 million tons between 2024 and 2040. 

Throughout most of the projection, coal production is lowest under AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource 

assumptions (CPPHOGR), as coal loses more of its share in the electric power sector to natural gas. In 

2040, the CPPHOGR case projects a decline in production of 299 million tons relative to the underlying 

AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource case, while in the Base Policy case coal production drops by 225 

million tons relative to the AEO2015 Reference case.

High Economic Growth assumptions (CPPHEG case) lead to the highest levels of coal production among 

the Clean Power Plan cases, and the CPPHEG case also has the steepest slope of recovery for coal in the 

post-2020 period (0.4% per year). In this case, higher economic growth leads to higher electricity 

demand. In addition, the CPPHEG case projects the most additions of renewable generating capacity, 

which allows regions to generate more coal-fired electricity without exceeding the Clean Power Plan’s 

emission performance goals. These factors result in higher utilization of coal plants-and higher coal 

production-relative to the other cases analyzed. 

Figure 28. Total U.S. coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Average delivered coal prices to the power sector are lower than the baseline cases in all of the Clean 

Power Plan cases analyzed (Figure 29). In the Base Policy case (CPP), delivered coal prices fall to 13% 

below the underlying AEO2015 Reference case baseline levels in 2030, and rebound slightly to 10% 

below base in 2040. In the Policy Extension case, where emission performance goals continue to decline 

after 2030, delivered coal prices see the largest percentage drop, falling to 17% below Reference case 

levels in 2040. Demand for coal under the Clean Power Plan is strongest with AEO2015 High Economic 

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

million short tons

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

CPPHEG CPPHOGR
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 49

Growth assumptions (CPPHEG), where delivered coal prices are 10% below the underlying base case in 

2030 and 7% below the base case in 2040. In the CPPHOGR case, delivered coal prices are 12% to 14% 

below baseline levels between 2030 and 2040.

Figure 29. Average delivered coal prices to the electric power sector in baseline and Clean Power Plan 

cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Regional coal production

In the Base Policy case, production of higher-cost Appalachian coal declines sharply after 2019, relative 

to the underlying AEO2015 Reference base case (Figure 30). Appalachian coal production is then 

relatively flat throughout the remainder of the Base Policy case projection but continues to decline 

when post-2030 emission performance goals are assumed in the Policy Extension case. 

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

2013 dollars per short ton

AEO CPP

CPPEXT CPPNUC

 ≈

 0 20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

 

AEOHEG AEOHOGR

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May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 50

Figure 30. Appalachian coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

When the Clean Power Plan first takes effect, Interior and Western region coal production decline by 

similar percentages compared with their AEO2015 Reference case levels, 24% and 22% in 2020, 

respectively (Figure 31 and Figure 32). However, for the Western region this decline represents a drop of 

130 million tons, more than twice the decline for the Interior region (53 million tons). While higher-cost 

Appalachian coal never shows signs of recovery in the Base Policy case, production of less-costly Interior 

and Western coal does rebound somewhat, though total coal production never attains 2013 levels 

within the projection period. After 2024, Interior and Western production increase by 84 and 65 million 

tons, respectively. In the Policy Extension case in the post-2030 period, Western coal production 

continues to decline relative to the Base Policy case, but Interior coal production first rises slightly from 

2025 to 2030 before ultimately flattening out.

Across the policy cases, Interior coal production consistently shows some recovery over the projection 

after sustaining an initial decline in production. Relatively higher productivity expectations for the Illinois 

Basin (part of the Interior region) contribute to lower mine production costs for the region. Additionally, 

regions which increase their demand for coal in the later years of the projection also tend to be regions 

where Interior coal is projected to be economically competitive. These regions include the South 

Atlantic Census division for the Eastern Interior coal and the West South Central Census division for Gulf 

Lignite. 

In the High Oil and Gas Resource Policy case (CPPHOGR), Western coal production initially falls and then 

gradually increases by 21 million tons in 2040 compared to 2024 levels, a smaller increase than the 

Interior region’s rebound of 43 million tons over the same time period. The Western region is less 

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May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 51

resilient than the Interior region in this case partly because many of the demand regions for Western 

coal are also regions where natural gas tends to be more competitive with coal.

Figure 31. Interior coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Figure 32. Western coal production in baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, 2005-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 52

Further regional impacts

As previously indicated, two key attributes of the Clean Power Plan are 1) the establishment of state-bystate emissions intensity targets and 2) the provision of flexibility in choosing how to comply, accounting 

for differences in the regions. 

Regional differences in renewable penetration

The projected changes in electricity generation from renewables have significant implications for 

regional power systems supporting these areas. Table 12 compares the changing pattern of percentage 

growth in renewables generation for all EMM regions between the Reference (AEO) and Base Policy

(CPP) cases over three phases of implementation: pre-compliance (2015-19), interim compliance (2020-

29), and post-compliance (2030-40). From an overall perspective, on average the proposed rule extends 

a period of strong growth for renewable generation, so that instead of declining from 3.5% to 0.9% 

growth per year in the Reference case from the pre-compliance period to the interim compliance 

period, the growth in renewable generation in the Base Policy case increases to 5.0% per year. Over the 

long term, the rate of renewables growth approaches a steady annual rate in the range of 1.7%-1.9% in

both cases.

Table 12. Growth rates for renewable generation by EMM region and compliance period for two cases, 

sorted by 2020-29 CPP growth rate

Region 2015-2019 2020-2029 2030-2040

AEO CPP AEO CPP AEO CPP

Florida 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 15.0% 4.9% 3.4%

Great Lakes 4.9% 6.6% 0.4% 13.7% 1.3% 0.5%

Virginia-Carolina 5.0% 7.1% 2.0% 10.6% 4.8% 3.5%

Mississippi Basin 7.8% 8.0% 0.6% 10.3% 1.7% 0.2%

Mid-Atlantic 2.4% 2.0% 2.0% 8.2% 2.0% 2.9%

Rocky Mountain 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 7.1% 3.7% 1.3%

Lower Michigan 4.3% 13.1% 1.6% 6.9% 1.2% 1.4%

Southern Plains 7.3% 7.5% 0.2% 6.0% 0.6% 0.7%

Southwest 5.8% 5.8% 0.5% 5.5% 3.5% 4.3%

Tennessee Valley 2.2% 3.3% 0.7% 5.0% 1.2% 1.3%

U.S. Total 3.5% 3.9% 0.9% 5.0% 1.9% 1.7%

Northern Plains 2.8% 3.0% 0.2% 4.0% 1.9% 0.6%

Central Plains 3.5% 3.5% 0.4% 3.8% 8.2% 0.5%

Southeast 0.7% 2.0% 0.2% 3.5% 0.7% 6.7%

Mississippi Delta 1.0% 1.6% 0.9% 2.9% 2.6% 2.3%

Texas 3.5% 4.0% 0.5% 2.4% 1.7% 4.6%

Eastern Wisconsin 1.7% 2.5% 1.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.7%

California 4.6% 4.5% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 2.0%

Northwest 2.2% 2.1% 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 0.3%

Long Island 2.2% 3.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%

New England 6.8% 7.6% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4%

New York City 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.9%

Upstate New York 2.2% 2.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 53

At a regional level there is significant variability in the expected impact on renewable sources. The 

strongest growth in generation is projected for regions which either do not have renewable portfolio 

standards (RPS) in place (Florida and the Mississippi Basin), or have only modest requirements (i.e., the

Virginia-Carolina region). Conversely, the areas with the slowest expected growth in renewable

generation are among those which have set higher RPS requirements (New York, New England, and the 

Pacific Northwest).

The projected pattern of renewable generation growth among the fastest-growing regions is similar. As 

shown in Figure 33, all of the regions shown experience consistent growth in renewable generation in 

the Base Policy case relative to the AEO2015 Reference case at the beginning of the interim compliance 

period from 2020-29 before leveling off for the remainder of the period. In absolute terms, the growth is 

most pronounced for the large Great Lakes region. Three of the remaining regions (Southern Plains, 

Florida, and the Virginia-Carolina region) similarly add about 35-40 BkWh over the interim compliance 

period.

Figure 33. Difference in renewable generation (Base Policy case vs. AEO2015 Reference case) in top five

growth regions, 2015-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Regional differences in natural gas-fired generation

Under the Base Policy case (CPP) conditions, the expected change in natural gas-fired capacity is 

greatest at the outset of the program. The projected increase in natural gas generation in 2020 is 265 

BkWh. However, the use of natural gas capacity declines steadily thereafter, and by 2029 the projected 

increase in natural gas generation in the Base Policy case relative to the AEO2015 Reference case is 74 

BkWh. From a national perspective, the projected tapering off of natural gas generation under the Base 

Policy case translates into little to no growth in natural gas generation over the entire interim 

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May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 54

compliance period, in contrast with a moderate 2.1% annual average increase under the Reference case 

(Table 13).

Table 13. Growth rates for natural gas generation by EMM region and compliance period for two cases, 

sorted by 2020-29 CPP growth rate

Region 2015-2019 2020-2029 2030-2040

AEO CPP AEO CPP AEO CPP

Mid Atlantic -0.5% -1.2% 1.7% 4.0% 2.9% 0.4%

Long Island -12.1% -10.1% 2.7% 3.5% 3.2% 0.4%

Mississippi Delta -3.7% -3.2% 5.1% 3.4% 0.9% 1.3%

Southeast 0.3% 0.4% -0.2% 2.1% 1.7% -1.1%

Upstate New York -7.0% -7.9% -0.8% 2.0% 3.3% 1.0%

California 0.0% -0.2% 2.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4%

Mississippi Basin 11.9% 12.1% 11.1% 1.7% 6.6% 6.1%

Texas 0.6% 2.0% 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% -0.5%

Central Plains -0.9% -0.6% 2.1% 0.7% 3.3% 1.7%

U.S. Total -0.1% 0.4% 2.1% 0.4% 1.4% 0.0%

New England -0.8% -1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7%

Great Lakes -4.3% -4.8% 4.1% -0.2% 2.6% 2.2%

Florida 1.5% 2.9% 2.2% -0.5% -0.2% -0.9%

Lower Michigan 14.0% 13.5% -0.1% -0.7% 0.8% -1.1%

Northwest -11.6% -11.9% 7.4% -1.5% -0.2% -1.2%

Tennessee Valley 15.9% 21.2% 4.0% -1.6% -0.4% 1.3%

Virginia Carolina 11.3% 12.9% 0.5% -3.6% 1.2% -2.4%

New York City -9.4% -9.1% -0.9% -4.1% 2.2% 0.8%

Southwest -1.4% -0.5% 0.0% -4.5% -0.8% -0.8%

Southern Plains 3.3% 3.7% 2.3% -4.9% 1.8% 0.0%

Rocky Mountain -7.7% -9.0% 8.3% -4.9% 3.3% 1.2%

Northern Plains 12.9% 14.5% 5.7% -6.9% 2.9% 3.5%

Eastern Wisconsin 1.7% 3.7% 6.6% -7.9% 1.8% 3.6%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The regional impact of the proposed rule on combined cycle utilization appears to be the inverse of 

renewables growth, with some of the strongest regions for renewables (Florida, Great Lakes, and 

Virginia-Carolina regions) being among the slow-growing or declining regions for natural gas-fired

generation. On the other hand, some of the lagging regions in renewables (Texas and Mississippi Delta) 

are among the faster-growing regions in the natural gas-fired generation group. 

Figure 34 indicates the difference in natural gas-fired generation between the Base Policy case and the

Reference case for the top five EMM regions for natural gas generation growth under the Clean Power 

Plan. Among these regions, Texas shows the largest initial absolute increase in natural gas generation 

under the Clean Power Plan, over Reference case levels, before declining again by 2030. The remaining 

four growth regions (Florida, Eastern Wisconsin, the Northern Plains and New England) exhibit smaller 

initial boosts in gas generation, before eventually converging to nearly no change from baseline levels.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 55

Figure 34. Difference in natural gas-fired generation (Base Policy case vs. AEO2015 Reference case) in 

top five growth regions, 2015-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Regional differences in the operation of coal-fired generating units

Coal-fired power plants are expected to reduce output over the compliance period under the Clean 

Power Plan. For the United States as a whole, under the Base Policy Case (CPP) in the interim 

compliance period through 2029, the proposed rule results in an annual decrease of 1.8% in coal-fired 

generation (Table 14). However, over the 2030-40 period coal generation under the Base Policy Case is 

expected to recover modestly to a 1.1% annual growth rate.

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May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 56

Table 14. Growth rates for coal-fired generation by EMM region and compliance period for two cases, 

sorted by 2020-29 CPP growth rate

Region 2015-2019 2020-2029 2030-2040

AEO CPP AEO CPP AEO CPP

Tennessee Valley -1.5% -2.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

New York City 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Long Island 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rocky Mountain 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Great Lakes 1.8% 1.6% 0.2% -0.2% -0.1% 0.3%

Northern Plains 2.5% 1.8% 0.1% -0.4% 0.0% 0.3%

Central Plains 1.1% 0.9% 0.0% -0.5% -0.1% 0.4%

Southern Plains -2.6% -2.9% 0.1% -0.5% -0.1% 1.9%

Southwest -0.9% -0.9% -0.2% -0.6% -0.1% 5.4%

Northwest 8.0% 7.9% -0.8% -0.8% -0.1% -0.2%

Mississippi Basin 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% -1.1% -0.1% 0.1%

U.S. Total 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% -1.8% -0.1% 1.1%

Lower Michigan -5.9% -6.7% 0.4% -2.4% -0.1% 1.0%

Virginia-Carolina 2.1% 1.7% 0.3% -3.0% -0.1% 2.1%

Texas 1.3% -0.8% 0.0% -3.7% 0.0% 3.6%

Florida -1.1% -4.9% 0.3% -6.0% 0.0% 6.9%

Southeast 3.8% 4.0% 0.3% -7.1% -0.2% 4.6%

Mississippi Delta 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% -7.5% -0.1% 2.1%

Eastern Wisconsin -5.8% -6.1% 0.2% -7.9% 0.0% 4.3%

Mid-Atlantic 1.3% 1.3% 0.2% -9.2% 0.2% 2.4%

New England 18.3% 55.9% -0.1% -11.7% -0.2% 10.2%

Upstate New York 61.5% 58.8% 2.2% -16.3% 0.1% 1.1%

California 0.3% 0.3% -23.0% -20.0% 0.2% -0.6%

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In absolute terms, the changes in coal output reflect a combination of the expected results for natural 

gas and renewable generation. As a general rule, the regions in the Base Policy case which have aboveaverage growth in renewable generation and/or natural gas-fired generation growth are projected to 

exhibit declining coal generation (Texas and the Virginia-Carolina region, see Figure 35).

For those EMM regions projected to undergo the strongest declines in coal generation, the pattern of 

change is a mirror image to the front-loaded natural gas-fired and renewables generation capacity 

additions. For three of the regions, (Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Wisconsin) the largest declines 

in coal-fired generation occur at the outset of the interim control period in 2020, and then either flatten 

out or recover.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 57

Figure 35. Difference in coal-fired generation (Base Policy case vs. AEO2015 Reference case) in top five 

regions of decline, 2015-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Regional differences in demand reduction

States exhibit clear regional differences in levels of demand-side energy efficiency (EE) savings they will 

achieve by 2030 under the Base Policy case (CPP) relative to the Reference case (AEO). The U.S. averages 

a 2.5% reduction in electricity sales from efficiency programs and rebates by 2030 in the Base Policy 

case, relative to the AEO2015 Reference case. Reductions in demand attributed to energy efficiency 

range from 3.7% in the Rocky Mountain and Southwest regions (EMM regions RMPA and AZNM) to 

0.77% in New England (NEWE). 

Figure 36 illustrates demand reductions in the 22 EMM regions modeled by NEMS. The map represents 

demand reductions as a ratio of regional efficiency gains under the Base Policy case (CPP) to average 

national reductions (where the U.S. is 1.0) relative to total 2030 sales in the Reference case (AEO). Ten 

regions shaded in red, yellow, and orange produce efficiency savings during the interim compliance 

period (2020-29) at a higher rate than average; the twelve green-shaded regions produce lower-thanaverage reductions. 

Similarly to aggregate state-level growth rates in renewable resources, many states with a history of 

strong energy efficiency policy encouragement exhibit lower demand reductions under the Base Policy 

case (CPP). By early 2015, nearly 30 states had adopted state-level efficiency policies, including energy 

efficiency resource standards (EERS), EE pilots, or EE goals31. These policies were first established in 

 31 Analysis by U.S. Energy Information Administration using data in: American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE), 

State Energy Efficiency Resources Standards (EERS) (April 2015), accessed May 15, 2015; ACEEE, State and Local Policy 

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May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 58

1997, although most were enacted between 2007 and 2009. Long-standing state-level efficiency targets 

may result in fewer low-cost efficiency gains available during the interim Clean Power Plan compliance 

period. While NEMS includes state-level renewable (e.g. RPS) policies, it does not explicitly include statelevel EE policies. Regional incremental EE activities are implicitly captured in this analysis, however,

through the implementation of Census division-level rebates. Appendix F and Table 26 provides details 

on assumed rebate levels, covered programs, and implementation timing.

Figure 36. Regional EMM demand-side reductions, Base Policy relative to AEO Reference, 2030 sales

Note: ratios are regional changes relative to average U.S. change

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Table 15. Cumulative demand-side efficiency reductions to 2030 by EMM region, sorted by ratio to U.S. 

average

Region Ratios

RMPA - Rocky Mountain 1.51

AZNM - Southwest 1.49

FRCC - Florida 1.36

SRVC - Virginia-Carolina 1.36

SRSE - Southeast 1.34

SRCE - Tennessee Valley 1.31

NWPP - Northwest 1.16

SRDA - Mississippi Delta 1.13

SPSO - Southern Plains 1.09

ERCT - Texas 1.06

U.S. Lower 48 states 1

 

Database, accessed May 15, 2015; Database of State Incentives for Renewables and Efficiency (DSIRE); and state public utility 

commission (PUC) websites.

Key Range

≥ 1.45

1.30 - 1.44

1.01 - 1.29

0.75- 0.99

0.50 - 0.74

0.30 - 0.49

U.S. avg = 1.00
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 59

Table 15. Cumulative demand-side efficiency reductions to 2030 by EMM region, sorted by ratio to 

U.S. average, continued

Region Ratios

SPNO - Central Plains 0.91

CAMX - California 0.83

MROW – Northern Plains 0.81

SRGW - Mississippi Basin 0.77

RFCE - Mid-Atlantic 0.73

RFCW - Great Lakes 0.68

RFCM - Lower Michigan 0.6

MROE - Eastern Wisconsin 0.58

NYLI - Long Island 0.43

NYUP - Upstate New York 0.4

NYCW - New York City 0.37

NEWE - New England 0.31

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Reliability and infrastructure impacts

Reliability of the electric power system can be broadly divided into the categories of adequacy and 

security.32 Adequacy includes ensuring sufficient generating capacity to meet peak demand with a very 

high probability, as specified by reliability standards. Security includes the ability of the system to 

survive sudden disruptions.

As the NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM) is not a suitable model for conducting reliability analyses, 

this report does not provide a reliability assessment of the Clean Power Plan. The analysis does, 

however, attempt to represent adequacy requirements by ensuring that each EMM region carries 

adequate resources to meet projected peak demands, plus an assumed reserve margin. Intermittent 

generation capacity is significantly discounted relative to dispatchable capacity in adequacy calculations 

based on the availability characteristics of each renewable resource within each of the model’s regions 

during peak load conditions. However, as discussed below, the adequacy analysis in the EMM does not 

consider possible limitations on fuel availability for generation capacity fueled by natural gas during cold 

winter weather, when high demand for natural gas for heating homes and commercial buildings may 

coincide with high electricity demand. 

This analysis projects that the Clean Power Plan would result in substantial expansion of renewable 

generating capacity, and substantial retirements of fossil fuel-fired generation. To accommodate the 

projected penetrations of intermittent renewable resources, coupled with projected retirements of base

load capacity, system requirements would need to be examined with respect to planning and 

operational contexts. 

 32 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), Frequently Asked Questions, August 2013, accessed February 1, 2015.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 60

High penetrations of intermittent renewable capacity could lead to changes in capacity or ancillary 

services requirements in order to ensure sufficient system flexibility. An additional caveat to this analysis 

is that it may not capture future system requirements that could change the projected capacity mix 

under the proposed rule.

Compliance with the proposed rule could necessitate significant investment in electric transmission

system infrastructure to integrate renewables from remote areas. NEMS represents power transfers 

between regions, but it does not represent constraints on power transfers within EMM regions. While 

NEMS builds interregional transfer capacity when economic, it does not include a detailed model of the 

bulk transmission system and does not assess the reliability of these interactions in detail. In addition, 

the activity surrounding the funding, siting, and construction of transmission infrastructure involves

numerous complexities that are beyond the scope of the NEMS model and this study. 

Fuel diversity and availability of fuel supplies are another aspect of reliable power system operations. 

Under the Clean Power Plan, some regions will shift their fuel mix away from baseload capacity with onsite fuel supplies (such as coal, nuclear, hydroelectricity, and oil) towards capacity that tends to utilize 

real-time fuel delivery (natural gas-fired, as well as intermittent energy resources). Table 16 below 

reports regional generation shares based on 3 categories: dispatchable generation with on-site fuel 

(coal, nuclear, hydroelectricity, oil, biomass, and geothermal), dispatchable generation with real-time 

fuel (natural gas) and intermittent generation (wind and solar). As shown in the table, implementation 

of the Clean Power Plan shifts generation shares away from dispatchable capacity with on-site fuel 

towards the other two categories. In some areas subject to cold winter weather, such as Eastern 

Wisconsin, the Northern Plains, the Central Plains, Lower Michigan, and Upstate New York, the Clean 

Power Plan is projected to significantly reduce the share of dispatchable generation with on-site fuel 

supply.

There are several ways to mitigate potential issues that may arise from increased reliance on generation 

using real-time fuels and intermittent renewable generation. For example, regulators may encourage 

natural gas-fired generators to secure firm pipeline capacity to reduce or eliminate situations in which 

insufficient natural gas is available to meet both heating and generation requirements on the coldest 

days. Another strategy focuses on maintaining the capability to generate with on-site fuels. One possible 

option is to maintain back-up distillate fuel supplies for natural gas-fired plants that have the capability 

of burning either fuel. Another option would be to maintain back-up coal-fired capacity that could be 

dispatched as an alternative to natural gas-fired generation when natural gas supply is constrained. The 

various options are not mutually exclusive, nor are they costless. To the extent that it is necessary for 

states to pursue some combination of these options to assure reliability, the cost of doing so, which is 

not reflected in the electricity price analysis in this report, would likely be borne by electricity 

consumers. 
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 61

Table 16. Regional generation shares by fuel category, baseline and Clean Power Plan cases

Region - Case 2013 2020 2030 2013 2020 2030 2013 2020 2030

Texas - Reference 45% 47% 42% 46% 43% 48% 9% 11% 10%

 - CPP 29% 22% 61% 64% 11% 14%

 - CPPEXT 29% 21% 61% 65% 11% 13%

 - CPPNUC 28% 21% 61% 67% 11% 12%

Florida - Reference 37% 41% 37% 63% 58% 62% 0% 0% 1%

 - CPP 24% 21% 75% 67% 1% 12%

 - CPPEXT 24% 21% 74% 68% 1% 10%

 - CPPNUC 23% 44% 75% 54% 2% 2%

Eastern Wisconsin - Reference 89% 90% 85% 8% 6% 10% 3% 4% 5%

 - CPP 64% 59% 22% 15% 14% 26%

 - CPPEXT 67% 54% 15% 15% 18% 30%

 - CPPNUC 66% 58% 20% 13% 15% 29%

Northern Plains - Reference 78% 77% 75% 5% 4% 6% 17% 19% 19%

 - CPP 71% 66% 9% 5% 20% 30%

 - CPPEXT 71% 65% 9% 5% 20% 30%

 - CPPNUC 72% 66% 8% 4% 20% 30%

New England - Reference 53% 39% 38% 45% 54% 55% 2% 6% 7%

 - CPP 39% 38% 55% 54% 7% 8%

 - CPPEXT 39% 36% 55% 54% 7% 10%

 - CPPNUC 39% 37% 54% 55% 7% 8%

New York City - Reference 40% 46% 48% 59% 54% 51% 1% 1% 1%

 - CPP 43% 51% 56% 48% 1% 1%

 - CPPEXT 42% 52% 57% 47% 1% 1%

 - CPPNUC 44% 51% 55% 48% 1% 1%

Long Island - Reference 10% 17% 12% 88% 76% 80% 2% 6% 8%

 - CPP 16% 11% 78% 81% 7% 8%

 - CPPEXT 14% 12% 81% 79% 5% 10%

 - CPPNUC 16% 12% 77% 80% 7% 8%

Upstate New York - Reference 70% 70% 72% 26% 25% 23% 4% 5% 5%

 - CPP 63% 57% 31% 33% 5% 10%

 - CPPEXT 64% 59% 31% 28% 5% 13%

 - CPPNUC 67% 58% 28% 33% 5% 9%

Mid-Atlantic - Reference 71% 64% 60% 27% 34% 37% 2% 2% 3%

 - CPP 65% 47% 33% 46% 2% 7%

 - CPPEXT 62% 45% 33% 47% 5% 8%

 - CPPNUC 65% 48% 33% 45% 2% 8%

Lower Michigan - Reference 82% 64% 64% 15% 31% 29% 3% 5% 7%

 - CPP 59% 51% 30% 27% 11% 22%

 - CPPEXT 58% 49% 21% 28% 21% 22%

 - CPPNUC 59% 50% 31% 29% 10% 21%

Great Lakes - Reference 89% 90% 88% 9% 6% 9% 2% 3% 3%

 - CPP 88% 76% 6% 5% 6% 19%

 - CPPEXT 87% 74% 7% 6% 7% 20%

 - CPPNUC 89% 76% 6% 5% 6% 19%

Mississippi Delta - Reference 54% 57% 46% 46% 43% 54% 0% 0% 0%

 - CPP 45% 36% 55% 63% 0% 1%

 - CPPEXT 43% 35% 56% 64% 1% 1%

 - CPPNUC 41% 40% 58% 60% 0% 1%

Mississippi Basin - Reference 94% 94% 90% 2% 2% 6% 3% 4% 4%

 - CPP 85% 71% 6% 6% 9% 23%

 - CPPEXT 84% 70% 5% 6% 10% 24%

 - CPPNUC 85% 72% 5% 6% 10% 22%

Southeast - Reference 61% 66% 66% 39% 34% 34% 0% 0% 0%

 - CPP 58% 45% 42% 52% 0% 3%

 - CPPEXT 56% 42% 44% 58% 0% 0%

 - CPPNUC 60% 51% 40% 49% 0% 0%

Onsite fuel Real-time fuel Intermittent
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 62

Table 16. Regional generation shares by fuel category, baseline and Clean Power Plan cases, continued

Region - Case 2013 2020 2030 2013 2020 2030 2013 2020 2030

Tennessee Valley - Reference 89% 90% 86% 11% 10% 13% 0% 0% 1%

 - CPP 85% 82% 12% 9% 4% 9%

 - CPPEXT 85% 80% 12% 8% 3% 12%

 - CPPNUC 86% 91% 12% 8% 1% 2%

Virginia Carolina - Reference 79% 83% 81% 21% 15% 16% 0% 2% 3%

 - CPP 72% 67% 26% 21% 2% 12%

 - CPPEXT 74% 68% 23% 18% 3% 14%

 - CPPNUC 72% 67% 25% 22% 3% 11%

Central Plains - Reference 80% 79% 78% 7% 4% 5% 13% 16% 16%

 - CPP 79% 73% 5% 5% 16% 22%

 - CPPEXT 79% 72% 5% 6% 16% 23%

 - CPPNUC 79% 73% 5% 5% 16% 22%

Southern Plains - Reference 54% 48% 45% 36% 32% 37% 11% 20% 18%

 - CPP 33% 32% 45% 28% 21% 40%

 - CPPEXT 34% 31% 44% 30% 23% 39%

 - CPPNUC 32% 32% 47% 28% 20% 40%

Southwest - Reference 64% 60% 60% 33% 31% 31% 3% 9% 9%

 - CPP 44% 46% 47% 31% 9% 23%

 - CPPEXT 44% 47% 45% 33% 10% 20%

 - CPPNUC 44% 46% 47% 33% 9% 22%

California - Reference 35% 35% 32% 55% 50% 53% 10% 16% 16%

 - CPP 35% 34% 48% 50% 16% 16%

 - CPPEXT 37% 34% 44% 48% 19% 18%

 - CPPNUC 35% 33% 49% 51% 16% 16%

Northwest - Reference 78% 82% 76% 14% 8% 15% 8% 10% 10%

 - CPP 79% 74% 11% 11% 10% 16%

 - CPPEXT 78% 73% 11% 11% 10% 16%

 - CPPNUC 79% 73% 11% 11% 10% 16%

Rocky Mountain - Reference 73% 76% 64% 16% 11% 20% 11% 13% 16%

 - CPP 62% 56% 20% 12% 18% 32%

 - CPPEXT 62% 53% 19% 15% 18% 32%

 - CPPNUC 63% 56% 20% 12% 18% 32%

Onsite fuel Real-time fuel Intermittent

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Macroeconomic indicators

Under the Clean Power Plan, energy price changes and incremental investment needed to reach 

emission performance goals determine economic impacts. Resources must be diverted in order to fund 

technologies that would not have been used if the emission performance goals had not been imposed. 

These factors result in fewer available resources to produce other goods and services. The cost of 

energy efficiency improvements financed through utility programs is also reflected in energy prices, but 

consumer bills also reflect the savings associated with lower electricity consumption.

Economic activity, when measured either by real gross domestic product (GDP), industrial shipments, or 

consumption, is lower under the Base Policy case (CPP) than for the Reference case (AEO). Energy prices 

are higher, and more investment is needed in order to produce electricity from low- and zero-carbon 

sources under the Base Policy case (CPP). The economic impacts across the policy cases, when 

compared with the relevant baseline case, reduce cumulative GDP over the 2015-40 period by 0.15%-

0.25%. The Policy Extension case (CPPEXT) causes larger reductions in GDP and disposable income than 
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 63

the Base Policy case (CPP). Figure 37 shows the pattern of industrial and consumer energy prices which 

drive much of the difference in economic impacts. Figure 38 shows that the level of GDP in the CPP and 

CPPEXT cases is almost indistinguishable from that projected in the AEO2015 Reference case that serves 

as their baseline. GDP growth trends in all cases are dominated by workforce and productivity drivers 

that are not influenced by the proposed Clean Power Plan. Figure 39 and Figure 40 provide an 

alternative perspective on the same information by respectively displaying effects of the Base Policy 

case (CPP) and the Policy Extension case (CPPEXT) on cumulative GDP and cumulative disposable 

income. As shown in these figures, cumulative impacts over the 2015-40 period are in the hundreds of 

billions of dollars, equivalent to changes of a few tenths of 1 percent from baseline given the magnitude 

of GDP and disposable income accumulated over the 2015-40 period. 

Figure 37. Wholesale and consumer energy price changes across two Clean Power Plan cases, relative 

to AEO2015 Reference case

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Figure 38. Real gross domestic product in AEO2015 Reference and Clean Power Plan cases, 2015-40

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

percent change in wholesale energy prices

CPP CPPEXT

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

percent change in consumer energy prices

CPP CPPEXT

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

billion 2009 chain-weighted dollars

AEO

CPP

CPPEXT

 ≈

 0
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 64

Figure 39. Real cumulative GDP impacts across two Clean Power Plan cases, relative to AEO2015

Reference case

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Figure 40. Disposable income changes across two Clean Power Plan cases, relative to AEO2015 

Reference case

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

-1600

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

undiscounted discounted at 4%

cumulative change, billion 2009 dollars

CPP

CPPEXT

-0.30%

-0.25%

-0.20%

-0.15%

-0.10%

-0.05%

0.00%

undiscounted discounted at 4%

percent change cumulative GDP

CPP

CPPEXT

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

undiscounted discounted at 4%

cumulative change, billion 2009 dollars

CPP CPPEXT

-0.14%

-0.12%

-0.10%

-0.08%

-0.06%

-0.04%

-0.02%

0.00%

undiscounted discounted at 4%

percent change disposable income

CPP CPPEXT
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 65

Implementing the Clean Power Plan under conditions that assume high economic growth (CPPHEG) or 

high oil and gas resources (CPPHOGR) ameliorate both GDP and disposable income impacts relative to 

outcomes using the respective baseline cases. For the Base Policy case (CPP) Industrial energy price 

changes peak at 7% above the AEO2015 Reference case, compared with 5% above baseline for the High 

Economic Growth case (CPPHEG) and 2.5% above baseline for the High Oil and Gas Resource case

(CPPHOGR). Figure 41 highlights this correspondence between energy price changes and economic 

impacts, with cumulative GDP impacts over the 2015-40 period deviating slightly from their respective 

reference cases.

Figure 41. Change in wholesale energy prices and real GDP in Clean Power Plan cases relative to 

baseline

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Additional sensitivity cases

This section of the report discusses additional sensitivity cases beyond the main Clean Power Plan cases 

previously analyzed. Table 17 describes each additional sensitivity case in detail.

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

CPP CPPHEG CPPHOGR

% change in wholesale energy prices relative to base

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

undiscounted discounted at 4%

CPP CPPHEG CPPHOGR

percent change cumulative real GDP
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 66

Table 17. Additional Clean Power Plan sensitivity cases

Case name Description

Policy with TSD Phase-in (CPPTSDPH) The Policy with TSD Phase-In case models the Clean Power Plan relative to the 

AEO2015 Reference case. The case differs from the Base Policy case by assuming the 

state phase-in paths from Appendix 1 of EPA’s Goal Computation Technical Support 

Document (TSD), without modification. The phase-in paths in the Goal Computation 

TSD tend to represent larger reductions in the early compliance years, compared 

with the phase-in paths assumed in the bulk of this analysis.

Policy with High HRI (CPPHRIHI) The Policy with High HRI case models the Clean Power Plan assuming higher levels 

of heat rate improvement (HRI) potential and associated cost. The CPPHRIHI case is 

compared with a modified Reference case (AEOHRIHI) that uses the same heat rate 

improvement parameters.

Policy with Low HRI (CPPHRILO) The Policy with Low HRI case models the Clean Power Plan assuming lower levels of 

heat rate improvement potential and associated cost. The CPPHRILO case is 

compared with a modified Reference case (AEOHRILO) that uses the same heat rate 

improvement parameters.

Policy with No EE (CPPEENO) The Policy with No EE case models the Clean Power Plan assuming that energy 

efficiency is not used as a compliance mechanism, without modification to state 

emission performance goals. The baseline for the CPPEENO case is the AEO2015

Reference case.

Policy with High EE (CPPEEHI) The Policy with High EE case models the Clean Power Plan assuming that demandside energy efficiency is subsidized more heavily, relative to the Base Policy case. 

The baseline for the CPPEEHI case is the AEO2015 Reference case.

Policy with No EOR (CPPEORNO) The Policy with No EOR case models the Clean Power Plan assuming no market for 

CO2 from the electric power sector for enhanced oil recovery purposes. The baseline 

for the CPPEORNO case is the AEO2015 Reference case.

Policy with National Cooperation

(CPPUS)

The Policy with National Cooperation case models the Clean Power Plan assuming 

that EMM regions group together to form a compliance region consisting of the 

entire lower 48 states. The baseline for the CPPUS case is the AEO2015 Reference 

case.

Policy with Limited Trade (CPPLIMTR) The Policy with Limited Trade case constrains transmission capacity between 

regions, resulting in a scenario that limits increases in interregional flows as a 

compliance strategy to meet Clean Power Plan requirements. The baseline for the 

CPPLIMTR case is the AEO2015 Reference case.

Phase-in sensitivity

The Clean Power Plan contains interim emission performance goals, which must be met on average from

2020-29. EPA allows the flexibility in choosing annual targets, as long as the averages over the period 

correspond to the interim goals. EPA’s Goal Computation Technical Support document included an 

appendix with calculated annual goals for each state, illustrating a potential path to meeting the interim 

goals. 
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 67

The cases in this analysis use an alternate phase-in path that imposes less stringent targets in the initial 

years but modifies the subsequent rates to maintain interim 2020-29 compliance goals. However, the 

Base Policy with TSD Phase-in (CPPTSDPH) case phases in emission performance goals exactly as 

published in EPA’s Goal Computation Technical Support Document. This case was examined in order to 

evaluate the impacts of alternate phase-in choices. 

In 2020 the electricity price in the CPPTSDPH case is 8% higher than the Reference case, compared with 

a 5% higher electricity price in the Base Policy case. This difference reflects the greater “shock to the 

system” at the start of implementation when affected states and regions do not take advantage of the 

flexibility to phase in implementation more gradually while still meeting the specified average interim 

goals for 2020-29. The initial impact on renewable generation is minimal because the capability to 

increase renewable capacity is limited in the short term due to the lead times associated with building 

new capacity.

Table 18. Summary of Key Indicators in phase-in case 

Reference CPP CPPTSDPH

Heat Rate Improvement (gigawatts)

2020 7 68 83

2030 13 74 89

2040 13 75 93

Heat Rate Improvement (percent) *

2020 -1.1 -2.8 -3.8

2030 -1.1 -2.6 -3.5

2040 -1.1 -2.6 -3.3

Coal-Fired Generation Share (percent)

2020 39.3 31.1 26.8

2030 36.5 25.1 25.4

2040 33.7 25.9 26.4

Gas-Fired Generation Share (percent)

2020 25.7 32.1 36.4

2030 29.2 31.2 30.6

2040 31.0 29.5 28.4
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 68

Table 18. Summary of Key Indicators in phase-in case (cont.)

Reference CPP CPPTSDPH

Renewable Generation Share (percent)

2020 15.6 17.2 17.1

2030 16.1 25.2 25.5

2040 18.0 27.4 27.8

Energy Efficiency Savings (billion kilowatthours)

2020 0 22 30

2030 0 81 85

2040 0 102 111

Electricity Price (2013 cents per kilowatthour)

2020 10.5 11.0 11.4

2030 11.1 11.5 11.6

2040 11.8 12.1 12.3

*Heat rate improvement is relative to 2013 levels.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Heat rate improvement sensitivity cases

The study that EIA used as a basis for modeling heat rate improvement in AEO2015 and in this report 

reflects a range of heat rate improvement potential and cost for each NEMS coal plant type and quartile 

grouping as described in Appendix F. The high end of the range generally represents higher heat rate 

improvement potential for a higher cost, while the low end generally represents lower improvement 

potential for lower cost. In this report, EIA uses a mid-range heat rate improvement estimate in the 

main Clean Power Plan cases and in the baseline cases.

However, to assess the impact of varying heat rate improvement assumptions, EIA also ran sensitivity 

cases using the high and low heat rate improvement estimates under both Reference and Base Policy 

cases. The Base Policy High HRI case uses the high end of the heat rate improvement potential and cost 

estimates, while the Base Policy Low HRI case uses the low-end estimates.

Table 19 displays heat rate improvement projections for coal-fired units under the Clean Power Plan in 

the sensitivity cases. For comparison, each Base Policy sensitivity case matches with its consistent 

baseline (for instance, the Base Policy High HRI case compares to a Reference case that uses high heat 

rate improvement potential and cost estimates). 

Compared with the Base Policy case (CPP), the Policy with High HRI case (CPPHRIHI) projects greater 

heat rate improvement, on average, although less total capacity undertakes heat rate improvement

measures. At the same time, there is more improvement realized per unit of capacity due to the higher 

potential of each activity. In the Policy with Low HRI case (CPPHRILO), less capacity undertakes heat rate 

improvement activity, and the average improvement across coal-fired generating units is lower as 

compared with the Base Policy case. The lower level for heat rate improvement potential in the Policy
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 69

with Low HRI case results in the most modest levels of heat rate improvement compared with the 

underlying baseline.

Table 19. Comparison of heat rate improvement (HRI) indicators in three cases.

Average heat rate for coalfired units (Btu/kWh)Percentage HRI 

relative to baseline

Gigawatts of capacity 

undertaking HRI

(baseline)

2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040

CPP 10,198 10,215 10,220 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 68 

(7)

74 

(13)

75 

(13)

CPPHRIHI 10,153 10,144 10,175 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 66 

(3)

71 

(9)

73 

(13)

CPPHRILO 10,290 10,317 10,345 0.9% 0.8% 0.6% 66 

(2)

73 

(2)

73 

(2)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Energy efficiency sensitivity cases

This section further explores key demand-side results for the Base Policy case (CPP) along with two 

alternatives: a case without using the energy efficiency compliance option (CPPEENO) and a case with 

more aggressive subsidization of end uses (CPPEEHI). Overall the results demonstrate that within the 

analytic framework of this study, energy efficiency plays an important yet limited role in Clean Power 

Plan compliance. This is due to the presence of competing compliance options within a narrow range of 

incremental cost.

Table 20 summarizes the net present value of annual costs incremental to Reference case costs. In the 

Base Policy case, $110 billion of new capacity net present value (NPV) costs are accumulated through 

2030 along with EE expenditures of $21 billion. Total sales are 2.5% lower than in the Reference case, 

and with increased renewable (wind) capacity and generation, fuel costs and non-fuel operating costs 

are $37 billion lower. Consumers across all sectors spend $59 billion more for electricity in 2030 in the 

Base Policy case relative to the Reference case as suppliers pass along the increased costs incurred in 

meeting Clean Power Plan requirements. After accounting for program incentives, consumers also spend 

approximately $2 billion on EE electrical equipment purchases that have been stimulated by both EE 

program subsidies and higher electricity prices. Consumers’ natural gas bills are $18 billion higher as 

increased natural gas use by the power sector affects delivered prices to all users. 

In the CPPEENO case, wind capacity costs substitute for expenditures on EE subsidies nearly one-for-one 

compared with the Base Policy case - cumulative NPV new capacity costs are $21 billion higher and EE 

expenditures $21 billion lower in 2030 (Table 20). Due to the lack of subsidies, electricity sales are 56 

BkWh higher in 2030 (not cumulative), since sales are not being directly impacted by energy efficiency 

savings, and the only incentive for more-efficient purchases is the higher electricity prices relative to the 

Reference case. Fuel costs are $4 billion lower in the CPPEENO case due to the increased wind 

generation, and total power sector costs net to a $3 billion decrease relative to the Base Policy case. 

Electricity expenditures by all consumers are $5 billion lower and the increased wind generation reduces 

the pressure on natural gas-fired generation, which mitigates the price rise for natural gas in the 

CPPEENO case, reducing consumer natural gas expenditures by $3 billion relative to the Base Policy 

case.
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U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 70

Table 20. Incremental cumulative net present value of selected costs (billion 2013 $) over 2014-40

relative to AEO2015 Reference case33

CPP CPPEENO CPPEEHI

2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040

New capacity 5 110 164 9 131 195 4 97 140

Retrofits 0 7 9 0 6 8 0 7 9

Non-fuel operating costs -4 -9 -10 -3 -6 -6 -5 -12 -16

Fuel costs 7 -28 -64 4 -32 -69 7 -35 -76

EE expenditures by 

electric power sector

2 21 32 0 0 0 8 62 92

Consumer costs of EE 

expenditures34 0 2 1 0 0 0 -1 -9 -14

Consumer electricity bills 9 59 63 7 54 65 12 76 79

Consumer natural gas 

bills 7 18 19 6 15 14 7 14 14

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

For the CPPEEHI case, 2030 cumulative NPV power sector costs are $17 billion greater than for the Base 

Policy case. Lower cumulative NPV capacity and operating costs are not enough to offset the additional 

$41 billion in NPV cumulative EE expenditures through 2030. Electricity expenditures are $17 billion 

higher in the CPPEEHI case than the Base Policy case as the additional power sector costs are passed 

along to consumers. Lower electricity sales reduce the pressure on natural gas-fired generation and 

prices in this case, reducing natural gas expenditures by $4 billion relative to the Base Policy case.

Markets for CO2 for enhanced oil recovery

Carbon dioxide can be injected into oil fields to enhance oil recovery (EOR) so this can represent an 

incentive to either retrofit or build new generating capacity with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) 

equipment. CCS also represents another potential option for reducing the average CO2 emission rate. An 

alternate case was examined, in which there was no market for CO2 from electric power plants for EOR. 

In the AEO2015 Reference case, one gigawatt of new capacity with CCS is added. In the Base Policy case, 

four gigawatts of existing coal-fired plants are retrofitted with CCS due to the combination of the EOR 

incentive and contribution towards lowering the average CO2 emission rate. Upon removal of the 

incentive to capture CO2 for EOR, the additional CCS retrofits do not occur.

 33 Costs are incremental to the cumulative NPV of resource costs in the Reference case. NPV calculations for this table use an 

8% discount rate.

34 Approximate incremental consumer investment in energy-efficient technologies.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 71

Table 21. Total capacity with carbon capture and sequestration in three cases (gigawatts)

AEO CPP CPPEORNO

2020 1 2 1

2030 1 5 1

2040 1 5 1

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Wide regional cooperation

The Clean Power Plan specifies a set of goals for each state. In this analysis, the state goals are 

converted to regional goals for the 22 NEMS EMM regions. In the Base Policy case, each region is 

required to meet its own standards. To examine the impacts of greater interregional cooperation, the 

Policy with National Cooperation case models all 22 electricity regions as a single national compliance 

region.

Compared with the Base Policy case, the CPPUS case results in more renewable capacity and generation 

as areas with abundant, economic supplies can increase the contribution of zero-carbon electricity 

supplies. This, in turn, reduces the need to switch from coal to natural gas and invest in energy 

efficiency.

Cooperation among regions also lowers electric power sector resource costs, which include investment 

costs (new capacity, transmission, retrofits, and energy efficiency) and operating expenditures 

(operating and maintenance, fuel, and power purchases). Table 22 shows the difference in total electric 

power sector resource costs between the Base Policy case and the CPPUS case. Note, however, that the 

CPPUS case is only included as a sensitivity to bound the total compliance cost savings achievable 

through cooperation. Issues such as interregional cost allocation, which would be needed to achieve 

wide cooperation, were not addressed in this analysis. Therefore, no regional results are presented for 

the CPPUS case.

Table 22. Electric power sector resource costs in three cases - cumulative net present value over 2014-

40 (billion 2013 dollars)

AEO CPP CPPUS

2020 891 902 900

2030 1,561 1,662 1,647

2040 1,928 2,058 2,034

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Biomass CO2 emission rate

In its analysis of the Clean Power Plan, the EPA assumes that biomass consumption has an emission rate 

for CO2 of 195 pounds per MMBtu consumed. The biomass fuels represented in the EIA analysis are 

primarily waste products and agricultural and forestry feedstock, which are assumed to be carbonneutral over the fuel lifecycle.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 72

In the AEO2015 Reference case, dedicated biomass capacity in the electric power sector totals five 

gigawatts by 2040. In the Base Policy case, an additional three gigawatts are built. However, in the Policy

with Biomass CO2 (CPPBIO195) case, which uses the EPA emission rate for CO2 of 195 pounds per 

MMBtu, no biomass capacity additions occur. Generation from dedicated biomass plants in 2040 

increases by 58% in the Base Policy case relative to the Reference case, but declines by 66% in the 

CPPBIO case when there are no new builds. In both CPP cases biomass generation from co-firing is lower 

than in the Reference case, due to increased coal retirements and lower use of coal capacity.

Table 23. Electric power sector biomass capacity and generation projections in three cases

AEO CPP CPPBIO195

Biomass capacity (gigawatts)

2020 3 5 3

2030 4 7 3

2040 5 8 3

Dedicated biomass generation (billion kWh)

2020 13 26 7

2030 17 37 6

2040 30 48 10

Biomass co-firing generation (billion kWh)

2020 11 9 9

2030 24 2 6

2040 28 7 17

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Limited interregional transmission capacity

One issue in modeling the Clean Power Plan implementation relates to interregional power flows. 

Available data show that significant power already flows between the regions represented in EIA’s 

model. Model runs, whether for baseline or policy cases, allow for increases in interregional power flows 

and reflect the cost of added transmission that may be required to accommodate such flows in 

electricity prices. Interregional transmission capacity is generally projected to increase in the three 

AEO2015 cases (Reference, High Economic Growth, and High Oil and Gas Resources) used as baselines 

for implementation of the Clean Power Plan in this study. Interregional power flows and transmission 

capacity generally increase beyond baseline levels in model runs that implement the Clean Power Plan.

Even though interregional power flows already exist, the increase above baseline in trade in the Clean 

Power Plan cases could be viewed by some analysts as a form of interregional compliance cooperation. 

To explore the importance of trade to compliance, EIA developed the CPPLIMTR case as a sensitivity that 

is identical to the CPP case except that interregional transmission flows are held below the baseline 

(AEO reference case) level. 

In the CPPLIMTR case, aggregate interregional flows are considerably lower than in the CPP case, where 

existing transfer capability is utilized more heavily and more interregional transmission capacity is added 

compared with the baseline AEO case. Relative to the CPP case, the more restrictive interregional trade 

assumption in the CPPLIMTR case results in a slight reduction in reliance on wind generation for 
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 73

compliance, reflecting a reduced capability to move power from regions with attractive wind resources 

to regions with less wind resource potential. The regions that have less wind resource potential 

generally compensate for lower interregional electricity supply in the CPPLIMTR case through a 

combination of increased within-region natural gas-fired and/or other renewable generation. Increased 

solar PV is an important source of in-region renewable generation in some of these areas. 

While the results of the CPP and CPPLIMTR cases differ significantly for some regions, key indicators 

such as electricity prices, coal plant retirements, and reliance on coal, renewables, and natural gas are 

very similar when considered at the national level. Price results for both the CPP and CPPLIMTR cases, as 

well as the baselines against which they are compared, necessarily reflect the way in which prices and 

costs of interregional generation and transmission capacity are allocated across regions within the 

model.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 74

Appendix A

Request letter
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 75
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 76
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 77

Appendix B

Acronyms

Acronym Definition

AEO Annual Energy Outlook Reference case

AEO2015 Annual Energy Outlook, 2015 edition

AEOHEG Annual Energy Outlook High Economic Growth case

AEOHOGR Annual Energy Outlook High Oil and Gas Resource case

AEOHRIHI Revised Reference case using higher heat rate improvement assumptions

AEOHRILO Revised Reference case using lower heat rate improvement assumptions

AZNM WECC / Southwest (EMM region)

BkWh billion kilowatthours 

BSER Best System of Emissions Reduction

Btu/kWh heat rate: commonly stated in British thermal units (Btu) per kilowatt-hour (kWh)

CAIR Clean Air Interstate Rule

CAMX WECC / California (EMM region)

CCS carbon capture and sequestration 

CHP combined heat and power

CO2 carbon dioxide

CPP Base Policy case - Clean Power Plan modeling scenario

CPPBIO195 Policy with Biomass CO2 case

CPPEXT Policy Extension case modeling scenario

CPPHEG Policy with High Economic Growth case

CPPEEHI Policy with High Energy Efficiency case

CPPHRIHI Policy with High Heat rate Improvement case

CPPHOGR Policy with High Oil and Gas Resource case

CPPHRILO Policy with Low Heat rate Improvement case

CPPEENO Policy with no Energy Efficiency case

CPPEORNO Policy with no EOR market case

CPPLIMTR Policy with Limited Trade case

CPPNUC Policy with New Nuclear case

CPPTSDPH Policy with TSD-phase in case

CPPUS Policy with National Cooperation case

CSAPR Cross-State Air Pollution Rule

ECP Electricity Capacity Planning

EE Energy Efficiency 

EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration

EMM Electricity Market Module

EOR enhanced oil recovery

EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 78

Acronym Definition

ERCT Texas Regional Entity (EMM region)

FGD flue-gas desulfurization 

FRCC Florida Reliability Coordinating Council (NERC, EMM region)

GDP gross domestic product

GW gigawatts (1000 MW): a measure of capacity

HRI Heat rate improvement

IGCC Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle

kWh kilowatthour(s)

lbs CO2/MWh pounds of carbon-dioxide per megawatt-hour: carbon intensity measure

MRO Midwest Reliability Organization (NERC regional entity)

MROE Midwest Reliability Organization / East (EMM region)

MROW Midwest Reliability Organization / West (EMM region)

MWh megawatt-hour(s) / megawatthour(s)

NEMS National Energy Modeling System

NEWE NPCC / New England (EMM region)

NGCC natural gas combined cycle (type of generating unit)

NPCC Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NERC regional entity)

NPV net present value

NWPP WECC / Northwest Power Pool (EMM region)

NYCW NPCC / NYC-Westchester (EMM region)

NYLI NPCC / Long Island (EMM region)

NYUP NPCC / Upstate New York (EMM region)

RFC ReliabilityFirst Corporation (NERC regional entity)

RFCE ReliabilityFirst Corporation / East (EMM region)

RFCM ReliabilityFirst Corporation / Michigan (EMM region)

RFCW ReliabilityFirst Corporation / West (EMM region)

RMPA WECC / Rocky Mountain (EMM region)

RPS renewable portfolio standard(s) 

SERC SERC Reliability Corporation (NERC regional entity)

SPNO Southwest Power Pool / North (EMM region)

SPP Southwest Power Pool (RTO; NERC regional entity)

SPSO Southwest Power Pool / South (EMM region)

SRCE SERC / Central (EMM region)

SRDA SERC / Delta (EMM region)

SRGW SERC / Gateway (EMM region)

SRSE SERC / Southeastern (EMM region)

SRVC SERC / Virginia-Carolina (EMM region)

TSD EPA’s Goal Computation Technical Support Document

WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council (NERC regional entity)
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 79

Appendix C

State carbon intensity targets

Table 24 displays the interim and final state goals that were used to model the Clean Power Plan in this 

analysis, as well as rates based on the 2012 historical data that were used to develop the targets. The 

2012 fossil emission rate is based solely on 2012 fossil emissions and generation (and is not adjusted for 

other affected generators included in the goals, such as qualifying renewable and at-risk nuclear 

generation). An adjusted 2012 rate, reflecting the average emission rate including all affected 

generation, as defined by the Clean Power Plan is shown in the second column.

Table 24. EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan state carbon intensity targets (pounds CO2 per 

megawatthour)

35

State

2012 Fossil Emission 

rate 2012 CPP affected rate

Interim Goal 

(2020-2029 average)

Final Goal 

(2030 and beyond)

Alabama 1,518 1,444 1,147 1,059 

Alaska 1,368 1,351 1,097 1,003 

Arizona 1,551 1,453 735 702 

Arkansas 1,722 1,634 968 910 

California 900 698 556 537 

Colorado 1,959 1,714 1,159 1,108 

Connecticut 844 765 597 540 

Delaware 1,255 1,234 913 841 

Florida 1,238 1,199 794 740 

Georgia 1,598 1,500 891 834 

Hawaii 1,783 1,540 1,378 1,306 

Idaho 858 339 244 228 

Illinois 2,189 1,894 1,366 1,271 

Indiana 1,991 1,924 1,607 1,531 

Iowa 2,197 1,552 1,341 1,301 

Kansas 2,320 1,940 1,578 1,499 

Kentucky 2,166 2,158 1,844 1,763 

Louisiana 1,533 1,455 948 883 

Maine 873 437 393 378 

Maryland 2,029 1,870 1,347 1,187 

Massachusetts 1,001 925 655 576 

Michigan 1,814 1,690 1,227 1,161 

Minnesota 2,013 1,470 911 873 

Mississippi 1,140 1,093 732 692 

 35 Goal Computation Technical Support Document at Appendix 1, accessed December 29, 2014.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 80

Table 24. EPA’s proposed Clean Power Plan state carbon intensity targets (pounds CO2 per 

megawatthour) (cont.)

State

2012 Fossil Emission 

rate 2012 CPP affected rate

Interim Goal 

(2020-2029 average)

Final Goal 

(2030 and beyond)

Missouri 2,010 1,963 1,621 1,544 

Montana 2,439 2,246 1,882 1,771 

Nebraska 2,162 2,009 1,596 1,479 

Nevada 1,091 988 697 647 

New Hampshire 1,119 905 546 486 

New Jersey 1,035 928 647 531 

New Mexico 1,798 1,586 1,107 1,048 

New York 1,096 978 635 549 

North Carolina 1,772 1,647 1,077 992 

North Dakota 2,368 1,994 1,817 1,783 

Ohio 1,897 1,850 1,452 1,338 

Oklahoma 1,562 1,387 931 895 

Oregon 1,081 717 407 372 

Pennsylvania 1,627 1,531 1,179 1,052 

Rhode Island 918 907 822 782 

South Carolina 1,791 1,587 840 772 

South Dakota 2,256 1,135 800 741 

Tennessee 2,015 1,903 1,254 1,163 

Texas 1,420 1,284 853 791 

Utah 1,874 1,813 1,378 1,322 

Virginia 1,438 1,302 884 810 

Washington 1,379 756 264 215 

West Virginia 2,056 2,019 1,748 1,620 

Wisconsin 1,988 1,827 1,281 1,203 

Wyoming 2,331 2,115 1,808 1,714 

Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Radiation, Goal Computation Technical Support Document, 

Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2013-0602 (June 2014), Appendix 1 - State level goals, underlying state level data, and calculations 

for The Proposed state goals, accessed December 29, 2014.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 81

Appendix D

EMM Region carbon intensity targets

Table 25 displays the calculated interim and final carbon intensity goals for the Electricity Market 

Module regions, as used in this analysis. The 2012 historical generation-weighted average goal for each 

state in an EMM region was used as the basis for translating from EPA’s state goals to EMM regional 

goals. The 2012 affected rate represents a measure of the current regional rate (estimated from 

modeled values), calculated based on affected generation defined by the Clean Power Plan.

Table 25. Electricity Market Module regional carbon intensity targets (pounds CO2 per megawatthour)

Region* 2012 CPP affected rate

Interim Goal

(2020-2029 average)

Final Goal

(2030 and beyond)

Texas 1,411 855 793

Florida 1,097 794 740

Eastern Wisconsin 2,068 1,281 1,203

Northern Plains 1,816 1,362 1,308

New England 881 612 553

New York 1,108 635 549

Mid Atlantic 1,557 1,078 952

Lower Michigan 2,096 1,227 1,161

Great Lakes 2,002 1,496 1,395

Mississippi Delta 1,427 925 865

Mississippi Basin 2,202 1,462 1,374

Southeast 1,088 1,003 932

Tennessee Valley 1,757 1,391 1,317

Virginia Carolina 1,509 1,007 927

Central Plains 1,914 1,593 1,515

Southern Plains 1,669 940 890

Southwest 1,512 816 773

California 1,006 626 604

Northwest 1,656 1,081 1,017

Rocky Mountain 1,783 1,330 1,268 *

See Figure 1 and Table 1 for description of EMM regions. Names are intended to be approximately descriptive of location. 

Exact regional boundaries do not necessarily correspond to state borders or to other regional naming conventions.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 82

Appendix E

Detailed description of NEMS carbon intensity constraint

Equation 1 is a simplified version of the intensity constraint. When this constraint is binding in the 

Electric Capacity Planning model, its shadow price (in units of $/pound) represents the marginal cost for 

a region to take an action from among building blocks #1, #2 and #3 for Clean Power Plan compliance in 

a particular time period. When the constraint is binding in the Electricity Fuel Dispatch model (after the 

capacity decisions are in place), its shadow price represents the marginal cost of using building block #2 

for compliance. As the use of building block #4 (energy efficiency) is determined through an iterative 

process with the NEMS Residential and Commercial Demand models, the capacity planning model does 

not optimize energy efficiency as a marginal compliance option.

Equation 1: Simplified representation of NEMS carbon intensity constraint

� �gyyy�f − hyy��

∈AAA

− � 0.06gyyyhyy

∈NNN

− � gyyyhyy

∈Z

− dyyhyy ≤ 0 ∀y, r

where:

y − the index of compliance years

i − the index of generating capacity types

r − the index of EMM regions

AAA − the set of affected CO2-emitting electric generating capacity types

NNN − the set of existing nuclear generating plants

Z − the set of credited zero-carbon-emitting compliance options, 

including existing and new renewables and nuclear plants already under construction

f − carbon emissions rate of generating capacity type i

in EMM region r (pounds per megawatthour)

gyyy − generation in compliance year y from generating capacity type 

i in EMM region r (megawatthours) 

hyy − emissions rate goal in compliance year y in EMM region r (pounds per megawatthour)

dyy − energy efficiency savings in compliance year y in EMM region r (megawatthours)

It is uncertain how interregional trade should be accounted for in the intensity standards of both the 

exporting and importing regions. Although not explicitly shown in the simplified representation above, 

this analysis represents trade as a supply source with an intensity rate equal to the specified intensity 

standard of the exporting (i.e., producing) region. That is, it is equivalent to a plant with a carbon 

emission rate corresponding to the target specified for the exporter. This amount is then treated as 

affected generation in the importing region’s intensity standard and excluded from corresponding 

generation in the exporting region. 
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 83

Appendix F

Additional description of methodology for heat rate improvement, re-dispatch, 

low- and zero-carbon generation, and demand-side efficiency

Heat rate improvement

Heat rate is a measure of the thermal efficiency of an electric generating unit, commonly representing 

the amount of energy used to generate one kilowatthour of electricity.36 A generating unit with a lower, 

or more-efficient, heat rate can generate the same quantity of electricity while consuming less fuel, 

compared with a unit with a higher heat rate.

The heat rate improvement potential for the existing coal-fired steam generating units represented in 

NEMS is based on a recent contractor study.

37 The study used a statistical analysis of the characteristics 

of coal-fired steam generating units to create predictive models for heat rates. The analysis underlying 

the study categorized coal-fired generating units according to plant characteristics, and assigned units to 

quartiles representing observed versus predicted heat rate performance. Units in the first quartile (Q1), 

which perform better than predicted, were generally considered to have the least potential for heat rate 

improvement. Units in the fourth quartile (Q4), representing the least-efficient units relative to 

predicted values, were generally considered to have the most potential for heat rate improvement.

The study then considered the application of heat rate improvement measures, and their associated 

costs, across combinations of plant types and improvement potential quartiles. Through a literature 

review and engineering expertise, the contractor developed a matrix of heat rate improvement 

measures and associated costs for combinations of plant types and quartiles. The study included 

minimum and maximum heat rate potential estimates, along with the associated costs.38

The contractor also provided EIA with an estimate of mid-range heat rate improvement potential and 

cost estimates, which are the default assumptions for the AEO2015 and for this analysis. Under these 

assumptions, across the fleet of existing coal-fired generators, the average attainable improvement 

potential is 4%, at an average capital cost of $300/kW.39 However, there is significant variation across 

plant types and quartiles. Across 28 plant type-quartile combinations, potential for improvement ranges 

from 0% to 10%, with the associated capital costs ranging from $0 (no improvement available) to 

$1,000/kW. 

 36 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Frequently Asked Questions, What is the efficiency of different types of power 

plants?, accessed January 31, 2015. 37 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Heat Rate Improvement Potential at Coal-Fired Power Plants, (May 2015). 38 The analysis selected the ECP type and quartile groupings such that each grouping contained at least 10 generating units, 

with the exception of the IG type, which has essentially no heat rate improvement potential. Some ECP types and quartiles also 

had associated variable O&M costs. The variable O&M costs were not incorporated into the NEMS EMM model at the time of 

this analysis. However, the impact of omitting variable O&M cost is expected to be small due to the relative magnitude of the

capital and fixed O&M cost components.

39 Costs expressed in 2014 dollars.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 84

Re-dispatch

A central component of power systems scheduling and operations is the dispatch of electric generators. 

Dispatch refers to setting the power output level of electric generators in order to meet a variety of 

system requirements, including satisfying electricity demand, along with other constraints. Re-dispatch 

refers to changes in the dispatch configuration. The use of re-dispatch to shift utilization away from 

resources with higher carbon intensity, and towards those with lower carbon intensity (especially away 

from existing coal-fired generating units and towards existing natural gas combined cycle plants), is one 

available option for compliance with the proposed Clean Power Plan emissions targets.

EIA’s NEMS model represents dispatch at the EMM regional level (see Figure 1). Within each NEMS 

EMM region, an economic dispatch algorithm finds the least-cost solution to meeting electricity 

demand, within modeled generator and system constraints. For this analysis, EIA added a carbon 

intensity constraint to the NEMS EMM model to represent regional emission performance goals, and to 

allow economic choice of the re-dispatch option. The carbon intensity constraint appears in the 

economic dispatch algorithms used by both the capacity planning and dispatch sub-modules of the 

EMM. This model structure simulates each region making economic tradeoffs between the use of redispatch, the use of heat rate improvement, and capacity expansion in order to achieve compliance in a 

least-cost manner. The use of energy efficiency, which is determined semi-endogenously through an 

iterative process with the NEMS Commercial and Residential Demand Modules, also factors into the 

intensity constraint. Appendix E describes the carbon intensity constraint in further detail.

Low- and zero-carbon capacity expansion

EIA’s NEMS model represents economic and policy choices to expand low- and zero-carbon renewable 

electricity resources. NEMS includes state-level policies, such as renewable portfolio standards (RPS). 

For this analysis, there are no changes to EIA’s AEO2015 Reference case assumptions regarding state 

RPS constraints, nor are there any changes to assumptions for cost or operational characteristics of 

renewable electricity resources. When modeling the Clean Power Plan, existing and new nonhydroelectric and non-municipal solid waste (MSW) renewable resources receive credit in the 

compliance calculation for each region.40 Output from incremental new hydroelectric generating 

capacity also factors into the compliance calculation for each region.

NEMS represents the addition of nuclear plants currently under construction (Summer 2 and 3, Vogtle 3 

and 4, and Watts Bar 2), and allows economic choices to add new nuclear plants in the future. The 

output from currently under construction nuclear plants is included in the compliance calculation for 

each region. In addition, 6% of generation from existing nuclear plants is included in the compliance 

calculation for each region, consistent with the proposed rule’s provision to give states credit for 

preserving at-risk nuclear capacity. 

The Clean Power Plan does not explicitly discuss credit for new nuclear power plants not already under 

construction in compliance calculations. As such, this analysis does not include output from unplanned 

new nuclear units in the regional compliance calculations for the Base Policy case. However, this report 

 40 The net energy generated from these resources is included in the denominator of the (pounds CO2 per megawatthour) 

carbon intensity calculation for each region, helping to lower the region’s intensity, as zero-carbon generation does not 

contribute any CO2 to the numerator.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 85

contains an alternate case in which generation from unplanned new nuclear capacity is included in the 

compliance calculation.

Demand-side energy efficiency

EIA developed prototypical portfolios of energy efficiency program measures to represent and distribute 

energy efficiency program spending for the Clean Power Plan in the NEMS Residential and Commercial 

Demand Modules. Subsidies, in the form of direct rebates, decrease the installed capital cost of energyefficient equipment, as is typical of utility incentives.41 Subsidized end uses include space heating, space 

cooling, water heating, ventilation, lighting, refrigeration, and residential building envelopes. EIA 

assumes that energy efficiency portfolios vary by Census division in terms of the implementation, 

timing, and level of end-use subsidies.

For the purposes of this analysis, EIA calculates electricity savings as the difference between baseline 

residential and commercial electricity sales in the appropriate baseline case, and electricity sales to 

these sectors in the Clean Power Plan scenarios. EIA calculates utility expenditures as the total cost of all 

equipment rebates plus additional utility program costs. EIA assumes the additional program costs add 

50% to the total cost of equipment rebates. Within NEMS, the Residential Demand Module and the 

Commercial Demand Module provide the Electricity Market Module with incremental energy efficiency 

program savings and costs by sector, Census division, and year for use in the regional compliance 

calculations.

EIA contracted to obtain information regarding current energy efficiency program activity for use in 

developing assumptions about common types of efficiency measures employed and variation in 

program spending by region and end use.42 EIA categorized Census divisions as either “active” or 

“startup” based on current program activity. 

Table 26 provides assumed rebate levels for efficiency measures and timing of implementation as part 

of the Clean Power Plan.

 41 Modeling of federal equipment subsidies (e.g., federal tax credits) is achieved through different subsidy inputs than those 

used for this analysis to maintain the ability to model both types of rebates without over-counting equipment expenditures 

associated with utility savings. 42 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Energy Efficiency Program Impacts Based on Program Spending, (May 

2015).
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 86

Table 26. End-use rebate level as a percentage of installed cost by energy efficiency program category 

and Census division as used for input to NEMS

New England Middle Atlantic

East North 

Central

West North 

Central South Atlantic

Space heating 10% in 2017 

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

Space cooling 10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

Water heating 15% in 2020 15% in 2020 15% in 2025 15% in 2025 15% in 2025

Ventilation 

(Commercial)

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

Lighting 10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

Refrigeration 10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

Building envelope 

(Residential)

15% in 2017 15% in 2017 15% in 2025 15% in 2025 15% in 2025

Efficiency program 

activity category

active active startup startup startup

East South 

Central

West South 

Central Mountain Pacific

Space heating 10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

Space cooling 10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

Water heating 15% in 2025 15% in 2025 15% in 2020 15% in 2020

Ventilation 

(Commercial)

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

Lighting 10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

10% in 2017

15% in 2020

Refrigeration 10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

10% in 2020

15% in 2025

Building envelope 

(Residential)

15% in 2025 15% in 2025 15% in 2017 15% in 2017

Efficiency program 

activity category

startup startup active active

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 87

Appendix G

Table 27. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years

2005 2013

AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPEENO CPPEEHI

CPP 

BIO195 CPPTSD CPPEOR CPPUS

CPP 

LIMTR

Coal 2,013 1,586 1,709 1,340 1,324 1,357 1,336 1,341 1,313 1,148 1,329 1,449 1,303 

Natural Gas 761 1,118 1,117 1,382 1,359 1,371 1,364 1,371 1,420 1,561 1,395 1,252 1,386 

Nuclear 782 789 804 804 804 804 804 804 804 804 804 804 804 

Hydro 270 267 292 295 296 295 297 295 296 295 295 296 295 

Wind 18 168 232 272 313 269 291 268 272 266 270 316 290 

Solar 1 19 51 60 60 60 70 60 62 59 59 54 60 

Other renewables 69 76 104 114 112 114 119 115 96 113 113 110 124 

Oil/ other 142 47 43 41 41 41 41 41 41 40 41 42 41 

Total 4,055 4,070 4,351 4,308 4,308 4,311 4,322 4,294 4,305 4,287 4,307 4,322 4,305 

Coal 313 304 263 217 210 222 218 216 215 213 217 225 217 

Natural gas / Oil 442 470 482 490 491 490 493 490 491 496 490 491 490 

Nuclear 100 99 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 

Hydro 78 79 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 

Wind 9 61 83 100 114 99 106 98 100 98 99 114 106 

Solar 0 13 28 32 32 32 37 32 34 32 32 29 33 

Other renewables 12 15 17 18 18 18 19 18 17 18 18 18 20 

Other 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 

Total 978 1,065 1,079 1,065 1,074 1,068 1,081 1,062 1,063 1,065 1,064 1,084 1,072 

Power sector 2,416 2,053 2,107 1,814 1,794 1,825 1,803 1,810 1,801 1,684 1,818 1,870 1,779 

Residential 11.0 12.2 12.9 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.7 13.5 13.8 13.5 13.2 13.5 

Commercial 10.1 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 11.3 11.2 11.5 11.2 10.9 11.2 

Industrial 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.7 

All Sectors1 9.4 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.2 11.1 11.4 11.1 10.8 11.1 

Residential 149.0 169.2 183.6 189.8 189.8 189.2 188.6 192.2 190.7 194.3 190.4 186.9 190.1

Commercial 128.2 135.7 150.1 155.9 156.1 155.4 154.6 157.8 156.9 160.3 156.5 153.0 156.4

Industrial 67.8 65.8 79.6 83.3 83.1 82.8 82.2 84.6 83.7 85.7 83.7 81.3 83.2

Total2 345.0 370.7 413.3 429.1 429.0 427.4 425.4 434.7 431.3 440.3 430.6 421.1 429.7

Natural Gas 18.6 25.1 29.6 30.9 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.7 30.9 30.2 30.8 

Coal 23.2 20.0 21.7 17.6 17.4 17.7 17.5 17.6 17.3 15.5 17.4 18.7 17.2 

Oil 13.3 19.2 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 

Nuclear 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 

Renewable 6.2 9.0 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.0 11.4 11.0 10.8 11.0 11.0 11.4 11.4 

Other 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 

Total 69.4 82.7 98.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.7 96.4 96.0 95.1 96.3 97.3 96.3 

2020

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh)

ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY (GW)

ELECTRICITY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (million metric tons)

ELECTRICITY EXPENDITURES (billion 2013 dollars)

ENERGY PRODUCTION (quadrillion Btu)

ELECTRICITY PRICES (2013 cents per kWh)
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 88

Table 27. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years (cont.)

2005 2013

AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPEENO CPPEEHI BIO195 CPPTSD CPPEOR CPPUS LIMTR

Natural Gas (Henry 

Hub)

10.08 3.73 4.88 5.83 5.78 5.80 5.80 5.75 5.82 6.52 5.86 5.36 5.74 

 Average Delivered 

Natural Gas Price 

to Electric Power 

Sector

9.55 4.40 5.39 6.47 6.36 6.41 6.37 6.40 6.52 7.21 6.54 5.84 6.35 

 Steam Coal 

Minemouth Price 

(2013$/short ton)

24.79 31.31 32.64 32.75 32.80 32.82 32.86 32.71 32.98 33.60 32.88 32.74 32.60 

 Steam Coal Price 

Delivered to 

Electric Power 

Sector

1.79 2.34 2.38 2.29 2.29 2.30 2.29 2.30 2.29 2.27 2.30 2.33 2.28 

Brent Spot Price 

(2013 dollars per 

barrel)

63.32 108.64 79.13 79.09 79.10 79.09 79.10 79.10 79.11 79.01 79.08 79.10 79.13 

Gross domestic 

product

14,234 15,710 18,801 18,739 18,732 18,744 18,735 18,736 18,731 18,708 18,738 18,754 18,731 

Total industrial 

shipments 7,464 7,004 8,467 8,423 8,417 8,426 8,420 8,421 8,416 8,403 8,422 8,433 8,414 

Non-farm 

employment 

(millions) 134 136 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 149 

Average Annual 

Change in CPI from 

2013 (%) - 0.00% 1.75% 1.82% 1.83% 1.81% 1.82% 1.82% 1.82% 1.84% 1.82% 1.81% 1.84%

Liquids 39.1 35.6 36.9 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.7 36.8 36.8 36.7 

Natural Gas 16.6 18.5 19.0 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.8 19.0 18.9 

Electricity 12.5 12.6 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 

Coal 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 

Consumption 100.2 97.1 100.8 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.1 98.9 98.7 97.9 98.9 99.6 98.9 

Imports 34.7 24.5 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.2 20.2 20.1 20.1 

Exports 4.5 11.7 18.1 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.7 17.9 17.5 

Production 69.4 82.7 98.7 96.5 96.5 96.5 96.7 96.4 96.0 95.1 96.3 97.3 96.3 

ECONOMIC INDICATORS (billion 2009 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion Btu)

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

OTHER PRICES (2013 $/MMBtu, unless otherwise noted)

2020
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 89

Table 27. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years (cont.)

2005 2013

AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPEENO CPPEEHI

CPP 

BIO195 CPPTSD CPPEOR CPPUS

CPP 

LIMTR

Coal 2,013 1,586 1,713 1,153 1,101 1,165 1,135 1,162 1,138 1,164 1,131 1,226 1,108 

Natural Gas 761 1,118 1,371 1,429 1,464 1,401 1,446 1,386 1,436 1,399 1,431 1,326 1,458 

Nuclear 782 789 808 808 808 900 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 

Hydro 270 267 295 299 298 298 299 297 299 299 299 299 298 

Wind 18 168 245 562 575 548 585 529 571 555 571 656 556 

Solar 1 19 71 148 151 96 177 144 171 162 156 98 162 

Other renewables 69 76 146 146 148 138 154 145 119 151 149 143 159 

Oil/ other 142 47 43 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 

Total 4,055 4,070 4,691 4,584 4,586 4,586 4,643 4,510 4,580 4,577 4,585 4,596 4,588 

Coal 313 304 260 209 200 214 208 209 206 207 207 221 211 

Natural gas / Oil 442 470 519 518 528 521 523 507 519 515 518 521 518 

Nuclear 100 99 102 101 101 113 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 

Hydro 78 79 80 81 81 81 81 80 81 81 81 81 81 

Wind 9 61 87 192 198 188 200 182 195 191 196 218 190 

Solar 0 13 39 76 77 51 89 73 86 82 80 52 82 

Other renewables 12 15 20 23 23 22 25 23 20 24 23 22 25 

Other 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 

Total 978 1,065 1,133 1,226 1,235 1,215 1,253 1,202 1,235 1,226 1,231 1,242 1,234 

Power sector 2,416 2,053 2,177 1,596 1,553 1,598 1,586 1,589 1,584 1,595 1,595 1,619 1,554 

Residential 11.0 12.2 13.6 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.0 14.5 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.2 

Commercial 10.1 10.1 11.1 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.8 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.5 

Industrial 6.6 6.9 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 

All Sectors1 9.4 10.1 11.1 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.7 11.5 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.5 

Residential 149.0 169.2 202.9 205.8 205.9 205.7 206.5 206.6 206.3 206.8 205.5 204.6 205.7

Commercial 128.2 135.7 169.2 170.9 170.8 170.7 171.7 169.6 171.4 172.0 170.6 170.0 170.7

Industrial 67.8 65.8 91.2 92.7 92.9 92.6 92.2 93.5 93.1 93.2 92.6 92.5 92.4

Total2 345.0 370.7 463.3 469.4 469.5 469.0 470.4 469.8 470.8 472.0 468.6 467.0 468.8

Natural Gas 18.6 25.1 33.9 33.6 33.5 33.5 33.5 33.4 33.7 33.0 33.4 33.1 33.8 

Coal 23.2 20.0 22.5 16.6 16.1 16.7 16.4 16.7 16.4 16.6 16.3 17.3 16.1 

Oil 13.3 19.2 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 

Nuclear 8.2 8.3 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 

Renewable 6.2 9.0 11.0 14.8 15.0 14.1 15.4 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 

Other 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 

Total 69.4 82.7 103.7 101.2 100.7 101.4 101.5 100.6 101.0 100.5 100.8 101.5 101.2 

2030

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh)

ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY (GW)

ELECTRICITY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (million metric tons)

ELECTRICITY EXPENDITURES (billion 2013 dollars)

ENERGY PRODUCTION (quadrillion Btu)

ELECTRICITY PRICES (2013 cents per kWh)
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 90

Table 27. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years (cont.)

2005 2013

AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPEENO CPPEEHI

CPP 

BIO195 CPPTSD CPPEOR CPPUS

CPP 

LIMTR

Natural Gas (Henry 

Hub)

10.08 3.73 5.69 5.86 5.90 5.82 5.79 5.84 5.88 6.03 5.75 5.63 5.97 

Average Delivered 

Natural Gas Price 

to Electric Power 

Sector

9.55 4.40 6.22 6.38 6.41 6.29 6.34 6.33 6.38 6.53 6.28 6.24 6.47 

Steam Coal 

Minemouth Price 

(2013$/short ton)

24.79 31.31 36.49 32.78 33.65 32.77 32.93 32.94 32.70 33.22 32.98 34.19 32.79 

Steam Coal Price 

Delivered to 

Electric Power 

Sector

1.79 2.34 2.67 2.33 2.32 2.32 2.32 2.33 2.31 2.35 2.32 2.43 2.31 

Brent Spot Price 

(2013 dollars per 

barrel)

63.32 108.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 

Gross domestic 

product

14,234 15,710 23,894 23,866 23,855 23,862 23,861 23,870 23,875 23,855 23,863 23,860 23,863 

Total industrial 

shipments 7,464 7,004 9,870 9,810 9,801 9,810 9,804 9,810 9,817 9,798 9,808 9,811 9,802 

Non-farm 

employment 

(millions) 134 136 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 158 159 

Average Annual 

Change in CPI from 

2013 (%) - 0.00% 1.85% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88% 1.87% 1.89% 1.88% 1.88% 1.88%

Liquids 39.1 35.6 36.3 36.0 36.0 36.1 36.0 36.1 36.0 36.1 36.0 36.1 36.0 

Natural Gas 16.6 18.5 19.8 19.7 19.6 19.7 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.5 19.6 19.7 19.6 

Electricity 12.5 12.6 14.3 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.2 13.7 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 

Coal 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 

Consumption 100.2 97.1 102.9 100.4 100.2 100.6 101.0 99.9 100.2 100.2 100.3 100.8 100.3 

Imports 34.7 24.5 21.7 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.2 

Exports 4.5 11.7 22.4 21.9 21.7 21.9 21.7 21.9 21.9 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.0 

Production 69.4 82.7 103.7 101.2 100.7 101.4 101.5 100.6 101.0 100.5 100.8 101.5 101.2 

ECONOMIC INDICATORS (billion 2009 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion Btu)

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

OTHER PRICES (2013 $/MMBtu unless otherwise noted)

2030
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 91

Table 27. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years (cont.)

2005 2013

AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPEENO CPPEEHI

CPP 

BIO195 CPPTSD CPPEOR CPPUS

CPP 

LIMTR

Coal 2,013 1,586 1,702 1,278 904 1,306 1,274 1,289 1,258 1,298 1,256 1,373 1,235 

Natural Gas 761 1,118 1,569 1,456 1,560 1,400 1,465 1,408 1,447 1,400 1,458 1,340 1,496 

Nuclear 782 789 833 813 811 962 816 808 819 814 812 809 814 

Hydro 270 267 297 300 301 299 300 299 300 299 300 301 300 

Wind 18 168 319 602 812 604 638 567 611 596 606 710 582 

Solar 1 19 110 275 292 171 321 254 310 299 288 222 287 

Other renewables 69 76 183 178 184 166 179 174 150 176 177 168 187 

Oil/ other 142 47 43 41 39 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 

Total 4,055 4,070 5,056 4,942 4,903 4,948 5,034 4,839 4,935 4,924 4,938 4,964 4,941 

Coal 313 304 260 209 197 214 208 209 206 207 207 221 211 

Natural gas / Oil 442 470 595 579 582 578 586 562 577 572 576 584 576 

Nuclear 100 99 105 102 102 121 102 101 103 102 102 102 102 

Hydro 78 79 80 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 81 

Wind 9 61 110 205 273 206 218 195 208 205 207 235 198 

Solar 0 13 61 136 146 87 157 128 153 146 142 112 142 

Other renewables 12 15 24 26 28 25 27 26 22 26 26 25 28 

Other 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 

Total 978 1,065 1,261 1,365 1,435 1,337 1,405 1,327 1,376 1,365 1,367 1,385 1,365 

Power sector 2,416 2,053 2,195 1,691 1,329 1,696 1,690 1,682 1,667 1,686 1,689 1,733 1,653 

Residential 11.0 12.2 14.5 14.9 15.3 14.8 14.7 15.1 14.9 15.0 14.9 14.6 14.9 

Commercial 10.1 10.1 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.1 11.9 12.4 12.2 12.3 12.2 11.9 12.2 

Industrial 6.6 6.9 8.4 8.6 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.4 8.6 

All Sectors1 9.4 10.1 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.1 12.0 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.2 11.9 12.2 

Residential 149.0 169.2 229.9 230.6 235.0 229.7 231.9 231.0 231.3 232.3 231.2 227.7 231.3

Commercial 128.2 135.7 195.4 192.8 196.7 192.1 196.8 187.9 193.2 194.6 193.3 190.1 193.8

Industrial 67.8 65.8 101.5 101.7 105.3 101.3 101.2 102.0 102.2 102.9 102.1 100.0 101.7

Total2 345.0 370.7 526.7 525.1 537.0 523.1 529.9 520.9 526.8 529.9 526.6 517.7 526.8

Natural Gas 18.6 25.1 36.4 35.0 35.2 34.8 34.9 34.8 34.9 34.1 34.8 34.6 35.3 

Coal 23.2 20.0 22.6 18.3 14.6 18.6 18.3 18.4 18.1 18.4 18.0 19.1 17.8 

Oil 13.3 19.2 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.1 25.5 

Nuclear 8.2 8.3 8.7 8.5 8.5 10.1 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 

Renewable 6.2 9.0 12.5 16.7 18.9 15.5 17.5 16.1 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 16.8 

Other 0.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 

Total 69.4 82.7 106.6 104.9 103.6 105.4 105.6 104.0 104.6 104.2 104.4 105.3 104.8 

2040

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh)

ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY (GW)

ELECTRICITY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (million metric tons)

ELECTRICITY EXPENDITURES (billion 2013 dollars)

ENERGY PRODUCTION (quadrillion Btu)

ELECTRICITY PRICES (2013 cents per kWh)
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 92

Table 27. Summary results for AEO2015 Reference case and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years (cont.)

2005 2013

AEO CPP CPPEXT CPPNUC CPPEENO CPPEEHI

CPP 

BIO195 CPPTSD CPPEOR CPPUS

CPP 

LIMTR

Natural Gas (Henry 

Hub)

10.08 3.73 7.85 8.15 8.12 8.11 8.00 7.99 8.26 8.49 8.15 7.64 8.17 

Average Delivered 

Natural Gas Price 

to Electric Power 

Sector

9.55 4.40 8.28 8.32 8.33 8.13 8.20 8.13 8.46 8.59 8.29 7.82 8.39 

Steam Coal 

Minemouth Price 

(2013$/short ton)

24.79 31.31 40.94 37.48 36.06 37.51 37.51 37.51 36.96 37.63 37.39 38.29 37.28 

Steam Coal price 

Delivered to 

Electric Power 

Sector

1.79 2.34 2.92 2.61 2.41 2.63 2.62 2.63 2.59 2.63 2.61 2.71 2.60 

Brent Spot Price 

(2013 dollars per 

barrel)

63.32 108.64 141.98 141.98 141.98 141.98 141.98 141.98 141.98 141.98 141.98 141.98 141.98 

Gross domestic 

product

14,234 15,710 29,898 29,886 29,831 29,899 29,901 29,861 29,881 29,897 29,879 29,903 29,881 

Total industrial 

shipments 7,464 7,004 11,463 11,418 11,374 11,423 11,424 11,398 11,416 11,413 11,413 11,420 11,415 

Non-farm 

employment 

(millions) 134 136 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 

Average Annual 

Change in CPI from 

2013 (%) - 0.00% 1.98% 1.99% 2.00% 1.99% 1.99% 2.00% 1.99% 2.00% 1.99% 1.99% 1.99%

Liquids 39.1 35.6 36.0 35.9 35.8 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 

Natural Gas 16.6 18.5 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.7 20.8 20.7 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.7 

Electricity 12.5 12.6 15.3 14.8 14.7 14.8 15.1 14.5 14.8 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.8 

Coal 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 

Consumption 100.2 97.1 105.7 104.0 102.7 104.4 104.9 103.1 103.7 103.7 103.8 104.6 103.9 

Imports 34.7 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.7 23.8 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.8 23.7 

Exports 4.5 11.7 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.4 24.1 24.3 24.2 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.3 

Production 69.4 82.7 106.6 104.9 103.6 105.4 105.6 104.0 104.6 104.2 104.4 105.3 104.8 

1

All sector average price includes transportation sector.

2

Total expenditures exclude transportation sector.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS (billion 2009 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion Btu)

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

OTHER PRICES (2013 $/MMBtu unless otherwise noted)

2040

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 93

Appendix H

Table 28. Summary results for AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource, High Economic Growth and CPP cases, selected years

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

Coal 2,013 1,586 1,443 1,212 1,733 1,415 1,441 898 1,733 1,293 1,440 910 1,744 1,421 

Natural Gas 761 1,118 1,450 1,610 1,204 1,377 1,832 2,092 1,573 1,422 2,200 2,439 1,705 1,475 

Nuclear 782 789 804 804 804 804 808 808 818 808 808 808 911 863 

Hydro 270 267 289 294 294 305 290 295 297 305 290 295 298 308 

Wind 18 168 229 263 243 315 232 407 301 634 234 412 489 725 

Solar 1 19 51 59 52 70 65 85 80 247 85 106 160 420 

Other renewables 69 76 107 110 106 117 146 128 158 161 175 145 222 207 

Oil/ other 142 47 44 41 43 42 42 39 43 41 42 40 43 42 

Total 4,055 4,070 4,417 4,392 4,480 4,445 4,854 4,753 5,003 4,912 5,274 5,154 5,574 5,461 

Coal 313 304 245 201 265 230 242 173 263 223 242 173 264 223 

Natural gas / Oil 442 470 497 516 490 497 573 607 564 540 674 704 657 629 

Nuclear 100 99 101 101 101 101 101 101 103 102 101 101 115 109 

Hydro 78 79 79 80 80 82 79 80 80 82 79 80 81 83 

Wind 9 61 82 97 87 115 83 142 105 216 84 144 165 245 

Solar 0 13 27 32 28 38 36 45 44 121 48 58 82 200 

Other renewables 12 15 17 18 18 19 20 21 23 26 22 23 32 31 

Other 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 

Total 978 1,065 1,075 1,070 1,094 1,108 1,159 1,196 1,207 1,335 1,275 1,309 1,422 1,546 

Power sector 2,416 2,053 1,973 1,789 2,165 1,886 2,089 1,605 2,262 1,727 2,179 1,701 2,266 1,827 

Residential 11.0 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.4 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.1 12.8 13.1 14.9 15.1 

Commercial 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.8 11.1 10.0 10.4 11.3 11.6 10.2 10.4 12.4 12.6 

Industrial 6.6 6.9 6.8 7.0 7.4 7.7 6.8 7.1 7.9 8.1 7.1 7.2 8.9 8.9 

All Sectors1 9.4 10.1 10.0 10.2 10.6 10.9 10.0 10.4 11.1 11.5 10.3 10.5 12.3 12.4 

Residential 149 169 177 179 190 194 192 194 220 222 211 211 265 264

Commercial 128 136 144 146 153 156 156 158 174 175 174 172 209 205

Industrial 68 66 76 78 86 89 86 88 104 105 90 91 127 126

Total2 345 371 397 403 428 439 434 440 498 502 475 473 602 594

Natural Gas 18.6 25.1 33.1 34.0 30.0 30.8 43.8 45.0 35.3 33.9 52.0 52.2 37.7 36.0 

Coal 23.2 20.0 18.8 16.3 22.0 18.4 19.8 14.0 23.0 18.3 20.3 14.7 23.5 20.0 

Oil 13.3 19.2 32.6 32.6 27.7 27.7 40.5 40.5 27.1 27.0 43.6 43.3 26.0 25.8 

Nuclear 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.5 9.0 

Renewable 6.2 9.0 10.4 10.9 10.7 11.8 10.9 12.6 12.0 16.9 11.4 13.0 15.5 20.1 

Other 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 

Total 69.4 82.7 104.3 103.1 99.7 98.1 124.4 121.6 107.0 105.6 136.8 132.7 113.3 111.9 

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh)

ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY (GW)

ELECTRICITY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (million metric tons)

ELECTRICITY EXPENDITURES (billion 2013 dollars)

ENERGY PRODUCTION (quadrillion Btu)

ELECTRICITY PRICES (2013 cents per kWh)
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 94

Table 28. Summary results for AEO2015 High Oil and Gas Resource, High Economic Growth and CPP cases, selected years 

(cont.)

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

AEO 

HOGR

CPP 

HOGR

AEO 

HEG

CPP 

HEG

Natural Gas (Henry 

Hub)

10.08 3.73 3.12 3.38 5.03 5.75 3.67 3.81 6.02 5.81 4.38 4.47 8.45 8.49 

Average Delivered 

Natural Gas Price 

to Electric Power 

Sector

9.55 4.40 3.68 4.07 5.65 6.34 4.15 4.27 6.61 6.31 4.67 4.86 8.71 8.57 

Steam Coal 

Minemouth Price 

(2013$/short ton)

24.79 31.31 31.18 31.37 32.74 33.37 33.82 31.32 36.61 33.83 37.96 34.78 41.60 38.92 

Steam Coal price 

Delivered to 

Electric Power 

Sector

1.79 2.34 2.24 2.18 2.39 2.33 2.44 2.12 2.68 2.41 2.67 2.30 2.96 2.73 

Oil price (2013 

dollars per barrel)

63.32 108.64 75.72 75.40 79.67 79.62 98.15 97.99 107.51 107.24 129.38 129.52 145.17 144.91 

Gross domestic 

product

14,234 15,710 18,841 18,796 19,590 19,526 24,222 24,192 26,146 26,126 30,236 30,186 34,146 34,107 

Total industrial 

shipments 7,464 7,004 8,566 8,536 8,967 8,924 10,349 10,314 11,081 11,022 11,989 11,969 13,786 13,656 

Non-farm 

employment 

(millions) 134 136 149 149 152 152 160 160 166 166 170 170 176 176 

Average Annual 

Change in CPI from 

2013 (%) - 0.00% 1.56% 1.60% 1.67% 1.74% 1.63% 1.63% 1.62% 1.65% 1.85% 1.84% 1.80% 1.82%

Liquids 39.1 35.6 37.4 37.3 37.8 37.6 37.7 37.4 38.3 38.2 37.4 37.3 39.7 39.4 

Natural Gas 16.6 18.5 19.8 19.7 19.2 19.1 21.9 21.9 20.6 20.6 24.1 24.0 22.5 22.4 

Electricity 12.5 12.6 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.7 14.8 14.5 15.3 15.0 15.9 15.5 16.8 16.4 

Coal 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.9 

Consumption 100.2 97.1 101.8 100.6 103.1 101.6 106.8 103.7 108.5 107.2 110.8 107.7 116.2 114.9 

Imports 34.7 24.5 19.9 20.4 21.0 20.9 18.2 18.0 23.5 23.2 18.3 18.4 27.3 26.9 

Exports 4.5 11.7 22.5 23.0 17.7 17.4 35.7 35.8 21.7 21.4 44.0 43.2 23.9 23.5 

Production 69.4 82.7 104.3 103.1 99.7 98.1 124.4 121.6 107.0 105.6 136.8 132.7 113.3 111.9 

OTHER PRICES (2013 $/MMBtu unless otherwise noted)

1

All sector average price includes transportation sector.

2

Total expenditures exclude transportation sector.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS (billion 2009 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion Btu)

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 95

Appendix I

Table 29. Summary results for Heat Rate sensitivity reference and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

AEO 

HRILO

CPP 

HRILO

AEO 

HRIHI

CPP 

HRIHI

AEO 

HRILO

CPP 

HRILO

AEO 

HRIHI

CPP 

HRIHI

AEO 

HRILO

CPP 

HRILO

AEO 

HRIHI

CPP 

HRIHI

Coal 2,013 1,586 1,709 1,336 1,709 1,341 1,709 1,137 1,710 1,154 1,700 1,271 1,701 1,289 

Natural Gas 761 1,118 1,117 1,390 1,117 1,381 1,380 1,421 1,376 1,418 1,569 1,436 1,568 1,433 

Nuclear 782 789 804 804 804 804 809 809 810 808 830 818 831 812 

Hydro 270 267 292 295 292 295 295 298 295 299 297 299 297 300 

Wind 18 168 231 269 232 271 246 579 244 559 317 619 317 604 

Solar 1 19 51 59 51 60 71 152 70 162 110 282 109 290 

Other renewables 69 76 104 112 105 114 145 148 145 146 187 176 187 176 

Oil/ other 142 47 43 41 43 41 43 40 43 40 43 41 43 41 

Total 4,055 4,070 4,350 4,307 4,352 4,307 4,697 4,583 4,692 4,585 5,053 4,941 5,053 4,945 

Coal 313 304 263 218 263 217 260 208 260 209 260 208 260 209 

Natural gas / Oil 442 470 481 489 482 490 518 517 518 515 592 577 594 577 

Nuclear 100 99 101 101 101 101 102 102 102 101 104 103 105 102 

Hydro 78 79 80 80 80 80 80 81 80 81 80 81 80 81 

Wind 9 61 83 99 83 99 88 198 87 192 109 211 109 206 

Solar 0 13 28 32 28 33 39 77 39 82 61 139 60 143 

Other renewables 12 15 17 18 17 18 20 24 20 23 25 26 25 26 

Other 24 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 

Total 978 1,065 1,078 1,064 1,078 1,065 1,133 1,232 1,132 1,229 1,258 1,371 1,260 1,370 

Power sector 2,416 2,053 2,109 1,826 2,109 1,810 2,181 1,597 2,176 1,595 2,199 1,692 2,191 1,691 

Residential 11.0 12.2 12.9 13.5 12.9 13.5 13.6 14.2 13.6 14.2 14.5 14.9 14.5 14.8 

Commercial 10.1 10.1 10.7 11.2 10.6 11.1 11.0 11.5 11.1 11.5 11.8 12.1 11.8 12.1 

Industrial 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.8 7.3 7.7 7.7 8.0 7.7 8.0 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.6 

All Sectors1 9.4 10.1 10.5 11.1 10.5 11.0 11.0 11.5 11.0 11.5 11.9 12.1 11.9 12.1 

Residential 149 169 184 190 184 190 202 206 202 206 230 230 231 230

Commercial 128 136 150 156 150 156 168 171 169 171 196 193 196 192

Industrial 68 66 80 84 80 83 91 93 91 93 102 102 102 102

Total2 345 371 414 430 414 430 461 469 462 469 528 525 529 524

Natural Gas 18.6 25.1 29.6 30.9 29.6 30.9 34.0 33.6 33.9 33.6 36.4 34.9 36.4 34.9 

Coal 23.2 20.0 21.7 17.6 21.7 17.5 22.5 16.5 22.5 16.5 22.7 18.4 22.6 18.4 

Oil 13.3 19.2 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.8 25.3 25.4 25.6 25.4 

Nuclear 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.7 8.5 

Renewable 6.2 9.0 10.4 11.0 10.4 11.0 11.0 15.1 11.0 14.9 12.5 16.9 12.5 16.8 

Other 0.0 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 

Total 69.4 82.7 98.7 96.5 98.7 96.4 103.7 101.3 103.7 101.1 106.5 105.2 106.8 105.0 

ELECTRIC GENERATION (billion kWh)

ELECTRIC GENERATION CAPACITY (GW)

ELECTRICITY-RELATED CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS (million metric tons)

ELECTRICITY EXPENDITURES (billion 2013 dollars)

ENERGY PRODUCTION (quadrillion Btu)

ELECTRICITY PRICES (2013 cents per kWh)
May 2015

U.S. Energy Information Administration | Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan 96

Table 29. Summary results for Heat Rate sensitivity reference and Clean Power Plan cases, selected years (cont.)

2005 2013 2020 2030 2040

AEO 

HRILO

CPP 

HRILO

AEO 

HRIHI

CPP 

HRIHI

AEO 

HRILO

CPP 

HRILO

AEO 

HRIHI

CPP 

HRIHI

AEO 

HRILO

CPP 

HRILO

AEO 

HRIHI

CPP 

HRIHI

Natural Gas (Henry 

Hub)

10.08 3.73 4.89 5.80 4.94 5.84 5.75 5.80 5.78 5.84 7.93 8.13 7.84 8.11 

Average Delivered 

Natural Gas Price 

to Electric Power 

Sector

9.55 4.40 5.39 6.46 5.38 6.48 6.27 6.34 6.37 6.35 8.31 8.29 8.17 8.26 

Steam Coal 

Minemouth Price 

(2013$/short-ton)

24.79 31.31 32.72 32.88 32.74 33.05 36.39 32.92 36.39 32.81 40.93 37.36 40.92 37.54 

Steam Coal price 

Delivered to 

Electric Power 

Sector

1.79 2.34 2.38 2.30 2.39 2.30 2.67 2.31 2.67 2.32 2.92 2.60 2.92 2.61 

Brent Spot Price 

(2013 dollars per 

barrel)

63.32 108.64 79.10 79.09 79.11 79.09 105.64 105.64 105.64 105.64 141.30 141.32 141.27 141.31 

Gross domestic 

product

14,234 15,710 18,801 18,740 18,801 18,739 23,895 23,859 23,898 23,860 29,882 29,895 29,884 29,890 

Total industrial 

shipments 7,464 7,004 8,467 8,424 8,467 8,423 9,871 9,803 9,872 9,806 11,454 11,417 11,454 11,417 

Non-farm 

employment 

(millions) 134 136 149 149 149 149 159 159 159 159 168 169 168 169 

Average Annual 

Change in CPI from 

2013 (%) - 0.00% 1.75% 1.82% 1.75% 1.82% 1.85% 1.88% 1.85% 1.88% 1.98% 1.99% 1.98% 1.99%

Liquids 39.1 35.6 36.9 36.7 36.9 36.7 36.3 36.0 36.3 36.0 36.0 35.9 36.0 35.9 

Natural Gas 16.6 18.5 19.0 18.9 19.0 18.9 19.8 19.6 19.8 19.6 20.9 20.7 20.9 20.7 

Electricity 12.5 12.6 13.4 13.3 13.4 13.3 14.4 14.0 14.4 14.0 15.2 14.8 15.2 14.8 

Coal 2.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 

Consumption 100.2 97.1 100.9 99.1 100.9 98.9 102.9 100.5 102.8 100.4 105.8 104.2 105.7 104.1 

Imports 34.7 24.5 20.3 20.2 20.3 20.2 21.7 21.3 21.7 21.3 24.2 23.6 23.9 23.7 

Exports 4.5 11.7 18.1 17.7 18.1 17.7 22.4 21.9 22.4 21.9 24.6 24.3 24.6 24.3 

Production 69.4 82.7 98.7 96.5 98.7 96.4 103.7 101.3 103.7 101.1 106.5 105.2 106.8 105.0 

1

All sector average price includes transportation sector.

2

Total expenditures exclude transportation sector.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS (billion 2009 chain-weighted dollars, unless otherwise noted)

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (quadrillion Btu)

PRIMARY ENERGY (quadrillion Btu)

OTHER PRICES (2013 $/MMBtu unless otherwise noted)

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration