Sea turtles_tables&calcs_12.11.10.xls

Author: Abt Associates Inc. Created: 12/11/10 Purpose: Includes data and calculations related to potential sea turtle benefits

Worksheet Description table 1 Table summarizing Whitehead (1993) results table 2 Table summarizing sea turtle mortality data table 3 Table summarizing facility-specific information

table 4 Table summarizing annualized benefits by region master calcs Calculations based on Whitehead (1993) table 3 values Table summarizing facility-specific information compliance shedule Compliance schedule calculations and results AIF data Actual intake flow data used for calculations

HH_data Household data used to estimate total benefits Note: The original version of this file contains, or is linked to a file that contains, confidential business information (CBI), or information that could be used to reveal CBI. As a result, the values for any variables determined by EPA to be CBI, or that could be used to reveal CBI, have been concealed.

File Info 1 of 14Variable Name Description Value Used in EPA's Applications OP Option Price - The amount a household would be willing to pay under

conditions of supply and demand uncertainty Estimated by the model
p 2 Demand Probability - for wildlife users, demand uncertainty occurs

when it is indeterminate whether recreational use of the wildlife resource will be pursued because of uncertain travel costs, income, and tastes. For nonusers, demand uncertainty depends on uncertain tastes. 0.51

q2 a Supply Probability without the Management Program - probability

that the resource will continue to exist in 25 years without implementation of the management program. 0.43

r2 Supply Probability with the Management Program - probability that

the resource will continue to exist in 25 years with implementation of the management program. 0.44 (r2 -q2) b Marginal increase in supply probability resulting from the

management program 0.01

a The model results are linear for marginal improvements in supply probability.

b EPA notes that a marginal change in supply probability of 0.01 is substantially less than changes used by Whitehead (1993) for model estimation. Whitehead (1993) estimated an annual household willingness to payvalue of $10.98 (1991$) for a mean increase in supply probability of 0.47 in 25 years.

table 1 2 of 14316(b) Region Facility Name State Species Dates Non-lethal Lethal Source Loggerhead 1999 40 8 Kemp's Ridley 1999 7 3 Green 1999 8 2 Salem NJ Loggerhead, Kemp's Ridley, Green (aggregated) 1999 23 2 Eggers 2001

Loggerhead 1980-1988 2.25 1.00 Kemp's Ridley 1980-1988 0.75 0.75 Brunswick NC Loggerhead, Kemp's Ridley, Green (aggregated) 2000 50 11 NMFS 2001

St. Lucie FL Loggerhead 1976-2005 225.50 6.00 NMFS (in prep) Leatherback 1976-1998 Hawksbill 1976-1998 Kemp's Ridley 1976-1998 St. Lucie FL Green 1976-1998 Ernest et al 1988
Gulf of Mexico Crystal River FL Kemp's Ridley, Loggerhead 1998 40 5 TEWG 2000

Encina, San Onofre CA Olive Ridley NMFS 1998a South Bay, Encina, San Onofre CA Green NMFS 1998b

All U.S. Waters

- Loggerhead Estimate 5-50 Plotkin 1995 Mid-Atlantic

South Atlantic

California Salem

St. Lucie NMFS 2001

0.95 0.90 NJ

Eggers 1989NJ

Bresette et al 1998FL Takes/yr

Qualitative Reports Only Qualitative Reports Only Oyster Creek, Salem, Hope Creek (aggregated)

109.38 1.62

table 2 3 of 14316(b) Region Facility Name State Waterbody CWS Technology AIF (MGD)

Mid-Atlantic

South Atlantic

Gulf of Mexico California

table 3 4 of 143% Discount Rate 7 % Discount Rate

North Atlantic CT, MA, ME, NH,

RI 5.40 $1.67 $1.62

Mid-Atlantic DE, MD, NJ, NY,

PA, VA 20.97 $6.51 $6.31

South Atlantic FL, GA, NC, SC 11.85 $3.67 $3.56
Gulf of Mexico a FL, LA, MS, TX 15.13 $4.69 $4.40
Total - 53.35 $16.55 $16.04 Annualized Benefits (2009$, millions)

a Florida households are included in both the South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico regions. To prevent double-counting, Florida households were apportioned between these regions based on relative AIF. Note: Because of uncertainty in estimates of increased survival probability, and because benefits were not calculated for options, these values are not included in national totals. Number of Households (millions)Region States Included

table 4 5 of 14equations based on Whitehead (1993) (pp. 126-128)

variable definition study values Transfer values notes

OP option price (2008$) 17.3484 0.353440552 •annual household payment, no fixed duration •1991$ - CPI adjustment of 1.58 •replicated values appear to be off slightly due to rounding

α parameter on p 2 (r2 - q 2 ) 1.272 1.272

p 2 (r2 - q 2 ) supply probability change weighted by the demand

probability 0.25 0.0051 •values appear to be off slightly from Whitehead (1993) results due to rounding

p 2 demand probability 0.51 0.51 •For wildlife users, demand uncertainty occurs when it is indeterminate whether recreational use of the wildlife resource will pursused because of uncertain travel costs, income, and tastes. •For nonusers, demand uncertainty depends on uncertain tastes.

q 2 supply probability without the management program 0.43 0.43 •Supply uncertainty occurs when it is indeterminate whether the wildlife resource will continue to exist so that it can be enjoyed by recreational users and

nonusers marginal change in supply probability 0.47 0.0100000000

r2 supply probability with the management program 0.9 0.4400000000 β p a ra m ete r o n t h e re q u e s te d p aym e n t 0

. 0 2 9 0

. 0 2 9

master calcs 6 of 14Beneifts Region/Facility Name Plant Code State Region Waterbody Type Waterbody Name Technology (CWS Type) CCRS Type? AIF (MGD)

Mid-Atlantic

South Atlantic

Gulf of Mexico

California

table 3 values 7 of 14region state AIF

calif CA 11161.01 calif total greatlakes IL 716.9 greatlakes IN 2214.865 greatlakes MI 6753.446 greatlakes MN 242.6 greatlakes NY 3718.191 greatlakes OH 2275.163 greatlakes PA 37.6 greatlakes WI 3087.876 greatlakes total inland AL 8204.449 inland AR 2132.447 inland AZ 290.53 inland CA 1.2 inland CO 300.6403 inland CT 194.0467 inland DC 1.347148 inland DE 33 inland FL 755.5034 inland GA 3289.231 inland IA 2408.706 inland IL 10156 inland IN 6377.277 inland KS 2169.67 inland KY 3520.087 inland LA 6988.356 inland MA 157.7859 inland MD 471.7657 inland ME 110.5412 inland MI 2247.565 inland MN 2166.648 inland MO 6272.162 inland MS 913.0014 inland MT 176.7987 inland NC 8688.919 inland ND 903.5987 inland NE 3015.303 inland NH 233.0278 inland NJ 114.9921 inland NM 46.56333 inland NV 69.12 inland NY 2578.704 inland OH 6840.283 inland OK 1890.128 inland OR 60.99963 inland PA 6631.607 inland SC 6067.301 inland SD 8.845041 inland TN 9480.705 inland TX 24892.29

AIF data 8 of 14region state AIF

inland UT 41.48801 inland VA 1840.587 inland VT 323.4667 inland WA 246.2448 inland WI 1712.151 inland WV 3894.248 inland WY 223.1107 inland total midatlantic DE 1430.625 midatlantic MD 6766.152 midatlantic NJ 6251.668 midatlantic NY 8993.723 midatlantic PA 48.412 midatlantic VA 4674.506 midatlantic total gulfmexico FL 7054.289 gulfmexico LA 984.9659 gulfmexico MS 302.57 gulfmexico TX 4904.056 gulfmexico total southatlantic FL 5243.84 southatlantic GA 198.4691 southatlantic NC 1426.89 southatlantic SC 592.8525 southatlantic total northatlantic CT 2099.031 northatlantic MA 3504.762 northatlantic ME 248.8683 northatlantic NH 909.3883 northatlantic RI 275.3553 northatlantic total

AIF data 9 of 14FL AIF %

gulfofmexico 7054.289 57% southatlantic 5243.84 43% total 12298.13

AIF data 10 of 14year baseline period df (3%) df (7%) adjusted annual benefits (NA) adjusted

annual benefits (MA) adjusted

annual benefits (SA) adjusted

annual benefits (GOM) 2012 0% 0 1.00 1.00 $0 $0 $0 $0 2013 20.0% 1 0.97 0.93 $0 $1 $1 $1 2014 40.0% 2 0.94 0.87 $1 $3 $2 $2 2015 60.0% 3 0.92 0.82 $1 $4 $2 $3 2016 80.0% 4 0.89 0.76 $2 $6 $3 $4 2017 100.0% 5 0.86 0.71 $2 $7 $4 $5 2018 100.0% 6 0.84 0.67 $2 $7 $4 $5 2019 100.0% 7 0.81 0.62 $2 $7 $4 $5 2020 100.0% 8 0.79 0.58 $2 $7 $4 $5 2021 100.0% 9 0.77 0.54 $2 $7 $4 $5 2022 100.0% 10 0.74 0.51 $2 $7 $4 $5 2023 100.0% 11 0.72 0.48 $2 $7 $4 $5 2024 100.0% 12 0.70 0.44 $2 $7 $4 $5 2025 100.0% 13 0.68 0.41 $2 $7 $4 $5 2026 100.0% 14 0.66 0.39 $2 $7 $4 $5 2027 100.0% 15 0.64 0.36 $2 $7 $4 $5 2028 100.0% 16 0.62 0.34 $2 $7 $4 $5 2029 100.0% 17 0.61 0.32 $2 $7 $4 $5 2030 100.0% 18 0.59 0.30 $2 $7 $4 $5 2031 100.0% 19 0.57 0.28 $2 $7 $4 $5 2032 100.0% 20 0.55 0.26 $2 $7 $4 $5 2033 100.0% 21 0.54 0.24 $2 $7 $4 $5 2034 100.0% 22 0.52 0.23 $2 $7 $4 $5 2035 100.0% 23 0.51 0.21 $2 $7 $4 $5 2036 100.0% 24 0.49 0.20 $2 $7 $4 $5 2037 100.0% 25 0.48 0.18 $2 $7 $4 $5 2038 100.0% 26 0.46 0.17 $2 $7 $4 $5 2039 100.0% 27 0.45 0.16 $2 $7 $4 $5 2040 100.0% 28 0.44 0.15 $2 $7 $4 $5 2041 100.0% 29 0.42 0.14 $2 $7 $4 $5 2042 100.0% 30 0.41 0.13 $2 $7 $4 $5 2043 100.0% 31 0.40 0.12 $2 $7 $4 $5 2044 100.0% 32 0.39 0.11 $2 $7 $4 $5 2045 100.0% 33 0.38 0.11 $2 $7 $4 $5 2046 100.0% 34 0.37 0.10 $2 $7 $4 $5 2047 100.0% 35 0.36 0.09 $2 $7 $4 $5 2048 100.0% 36 0.35 0.09 $2 $7 $4 $5 2049 100.0% 37 0.33 0.08 $2 $7 $4 $5 2050 100.0% 38 0.33 0.08 $2 $7 $4 $5 2051 100.0% 39 0.32 0.07 $2 $7 $4 $5 2052 100.0% 40 0.31 0.07 $2 $7 $4 $5 2053 100.0% 41 0.30 0.06 $2 $7 $4 $5 2054 100.0% 42 0.29 0.06 $2 $7 $4 $5 2055 100.0% 43 0.28 0.05 $2 $7 $4 $5 2056 100.0% 44 0.27 0.05 $2 $7 $4 $5 2057 83.0% 45 0.26 0.05 $2 $6 $3 $4 2058 67.0% 46 0.26 0.04 $1 $5 $3 $4 2059 50.0% 47 0.25 0.04 $1 $4 $2 $3

compliance schedule 11 of 14year baseline period df (3%) df (7%) adjusted annual benefits (NA) adjusted

annual benefits (MA) adjusted

annual benefits (SA) adjusted

annual benefits (GOM) 2060 33.0% 48 0.24 0.04 $1 $2 $1 $2 2061 17.0% 49 0.23 0.04 $0 $1 $1 $1 2062 0.0% 50 0.23 0.03 $0 $0 $0 $0 2063 0.0% 51 0.22 0.03 $0 $0 $0 $0 2064 0.0% 52 0.22 0.03 $0 $0 $0 $0 2065 0.0% 53 0.21 0.03 $0 $0 $0 $0

compliance schedule 12 of 14NPV (3%) annualized (3%; 50) NPV (7%) annualized (7%; 50) NA $43 $2 $22 $2 MA $168 $7 $87 $6 SA $95 $4 $49 $4 GOM $121 $5 $63 $5 total $427 $16.6 $222 $16.1

$18.7

compliance schedule 13 of 14region state state numHH included in loggerhead analysis

calif CA AL 1,836,096 midatlantic DE 329,246 calif total AR 1,132,706 midatlantic MD 2,138,174 greatlakes IL AZ 2,266,797 midatlantic NJ 3,186,057 greatlakes IN CA 12,371,970 midatlantic NY 7,303,783 greatlakes MI CO 1,891,368 midatlantic PA 5,021,383 greatlakes MN CT 1,365,529 midatlantic VA 2,996,176 greatlakes NY DC 268,559 midatlantic total 20,974,820 greatlakes OH DE 329,246 gulfmexico FL 7,252,011 greatlakes PA FL 7,252,011 gulfmexico LA 1,595,221 greatlakes WI GA 3,472,892 gulfmexico MS 1,106,531 greatlakes total IA 1,248,977 gulfmexico TX 8,271,247 inland AL ID 560,873 gulfmexico total 18,225,011 inland AR IL 4,821,525 southatlantic FL 7,252,011 inland AZ IN 2,501,050 southatlantic GA 3,472,892 inland CA KS 1,120,251 southatlantic NC 3,562,025 inland CO KY 1,695,340 southatlantic SC 1,718,297 inland CT LA 1,595,221 southatlantic total 16,005,225 inland DC MA 2,533,224 northatlantic CT 1,365,529 inland DE MD 2,138,174 northatlantic MA 2,533,224 inland FL ME 561,927 northatlantic ME 561,927 inland GA MI 3,977,292 northatlantic NH 518,506 inland IA MN 2,095,360 northatlantic RI 419,621 inland IL MO 2,373,024 northatlantic total 5,398,807 inland IN MS 1,106,531 total all regions 60,603,863 inland KS MT 383,318 21,211,352 inland KY NC 3,562,025 inland LA ND 285,857 inland MA NE 719,904 inland MD NH 518,506 inland ME NJ 3,186,057 inland MI NM 735,720 inland MN NV 947,691 inland MO NY 7,303,783 inland MS OH 4,622,384 inland MT OK 1,431,014 inland NC OR 1,476,434 inland ND PA 5,021,383 inland NE RI 419,621 inland NH SC 1,718,297 inland NJ SD 327,165 inland NM TN 2,449,562 inland NV TX 8,271,247 inland NY UT 837,511 inland OH VA 2,996,176 inland OK VT 260,831 inland OR WA 2,519,727 inland PA WI 2,302,752 inland SC WV 756,778 inland SD WY 211,883 inland TN inland TX inland UT inland VA inland VT inland WA inland WI inland WV inland WY inland total

HH_data 14 of 14