APPENDIX 10A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIO FOR THE SHIPMENTS

ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 10A­1

10A.2 STANDARDS­CASE MARKET­SHARE MATRICES ..................................... 10A­1

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10A.2.1 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity) ........................................................ 10A­1

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
APPENDIX 10A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIO FOR THE SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION

In this appendix, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) presents the standards­case

market­share matrix for the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity scenario. As discussed in

Chapter 10, in the 10 percent lumen increase scenario, DOE assumes that a portion of residential

IRL consumers will buy a more efficacious lamp at the same or higher wattage as they do in the

base case. This incorporation of non­energy­saving lamp designs results in an overall higher

lumen output per IRL in the residential sector. To quantify the percentage of consumers that

purchase same­wattage lamp designs, DOE assumes that the average initial lumen output of IRL

in the standards case is 10 percent higher than that of the base case. Under this assumption,

shipment forecasts and cumulative shipment impacts in the residential 10 percent lumen increase

sensitivity are very similar to the Roll­up, No Product Substitution scenario, which is shown in

chapter 10. Appendix 5A, 6A, and 7A contain additional engineering, energy consumption, and

price results related to these sensitivity scenarios.

10A.2 STANDARDS­CASE MARKET­SHARE MATRICES

DOE constructed market­share matrices to characterize shipments of lamps in the

standards case. Table 10A.2.1 displays the residential standards­case market­share matrix in the

10 percent lumen increase sensitivity. As seen in the table below, in this sensitivity scenario,

DOE assumes that in the standards case a portion of IRL consumers purchase same­wattage or

higher­wattage lamp designs.

Table 10A.2.1 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

TSL Lamp Design Installed

Lamp Price

Stock in

2011*

Stock in

2013**

Stock in

2042

% % %

BaseCase

90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2500 hrs, Halogen 5.13 41 41

75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2500 hrs, Halogen 5.13 32 32

50W, 12.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 4.53 27 27

Total 100 100

TSL 1

90W, 15.5lm/w, 2500hrs, Improved Halogen 6.07 41 41

75W, 14.7lm/w, 2500hrs, Improved Halogen 6.07 32 32

50W, 13.2lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 5.46 27 27

Total 100 100

TSL 2

90W, 16.3lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.70 12 12

69W, 15.3lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.70 7 7

88W, 16.7lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.09 2 2

50W, 13.9lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.52 8 8

79W, 16.6lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.52 29 29

66W, 15.9lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 5.92 13 13

79W, 16.6lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 7.69 9 9

45W, 14lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 7.69 5 5

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2
50W, 14.4lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.33 14 14

Total 100 100

TSL 3

70W, 18lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.70 31 31

100W, 20.3lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.70 10 10

60W, 17.5lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.09 25 25

80W, 18.8lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 7.69 7 7

42W, 14.8lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 7.69 17 17

50W, 16.5lm/w, 4000hrs, HIR 6.33 10 10

Total 100 100

TSL 4

66W, 19.8lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.02 34 34

90W, 22.6lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.02 7 7

55W, 19.1lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 7.41 29 29

90W, 22.6lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 7.69 3 3

40W, 17lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 7.69 25 25

50W, 18lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved HIR 6.33 2 2

Total 100 100

TSL 5

60W, 21lm/w, 4200hrs, Max Tech HIR 8.59 33 33

90W, 24.6lm/w, 4200hrs, Max Tech HIR 8.59 8 8

52W, 20.3lm/w, 4200hrs, Max Tech HIR 7.98 29 29

83W, 24.5lm/w, 4200hrs, Max Tech HIR 7.69 3 3

40W, 19.1lm/w, 4200hrs, Max Tech HIR 7.69 27 27

Total 100 100

*Base­case input only.

**Standards­case input only.

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EE-2006-STD-0131 COMMENT 37.2