George Perkins Marsh Institute

Clark University • Worcester, MA 01610 • http://www.clarku.edu/departments/marsh 

# GPMI GPMI Working Papers No. 2009-06

July 2009



# Improving the Ecological Validity of Non-Market

Valuation: Development and Application of

Bioindicator-Based Stated Preference Valuation for

Aquatic Restoration

Robert J. Johnston

Clark University; 950 Main Street; Worcester, MA 01610-1477

rjohnston@clarku.edu

+01 508.751.4619 tel

+01 508.751.4600 fax



## Kathleen Segerson

University of Connecticut

Kathleen.Segerson@uconn.edu

+01 860.486.4567 tel

+01 860.486.4463 fax



## Elena Y. Besedin

Abt Associates

Elena_Besedin@abtassoc.com

+01 617.349.2770 tel

+01 617.349.2660 fax 

## Eric T. Schultz

University of Connecticut

eric.schultz@uconn.edu

+01 860.486.4692 tel

+01 860.486.6364 faxW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 1 

### I m p r ovi n g t h e E c ol ogi c a l V al i d i t y of N o n

- M ar k e t V al u a t i o n :

D e ve l op m e n t an d A p p l i c at i on of B i oi n d i c at or

- B as e d

S t at e d P r e f e r e n c e V al u at i on

f

or A q u a t i c R e s t or at i o n

R ob e r t J. Joh n s t on 1

, E r i c T

. S c h u l t z 2

, K at h l e e n S e ge r s on 2

,

an d E l e n a Y

. B e s e d i n 3

1 C l a r k U ni ve r s i t y; 950 M a i n S t r e e t ; W o r c e s t e r

, MA 01610

- 1477

2 U ni ve r s i t y of C onne c t i c ut ; 75 N

. E a gl e vi l l e R oa d, S t o r r s

, C T 06269

- 3043

3 A bt A s s oc i a t e s ; 55 W he e l e r S t r e e t ; C a m br i dge

, M A 02138

- 1168

A b s t r ac t 

### : T hi s pa pe r i nt r oduc e s a va r i a nt o f c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt va l ua t i on

de s i gne d t o a m e l i or a t e c om m on l i m i t a t i ons r e l a t e d t o a l a c k of e c ol ogi c a l c l a r i t y

i n s t a t e d pr e f e r e nc e s ur ve y s c e na r i os

. T hi s a ppr oa c h, w hi c h w e c a l l B i oi ndi c a t or

B a s e d S t a t e d P r e f e r e nc e V a l ua t i on ( B S P V )

, i s di s t i ngui s he d by gui de l i ne s t ha t

i nf or m t he s t r uc t ur e a nd us e of e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s t o de f i ne pol i c y s c e na r i os i n

va l ua t i on s ur ve ys

. T he a ppr oa c h be gi ns w i t h a f or

m a l ba s i s i n e c ol ogi c a l s c i e nc e

a nd e xt e nds t o r e l a t i ons hi ps be t w e e n a t t r i but e s i n r e s ponde nt s ’ pr e f e r e nc e

f unc t i ons a nd t ho s e us e d t o c ha r a c t e r i z e pol i c y out c om e s

. T he r e s ul t i ng w e l f a r e

m e a s ur e s a r e de s i gne d t o be una m bi guous l y l i nke d t o m ode l s a nd i ndi c a t or s of

e c os ys t e m f unc t i on, a r e ba s e d on m e a s ur a bl e a nd una m bi guous e c ol ogi c a l

out c om e s

, a nd a r e m o r e e a s i l y i nc or po r a t e d i n t o be ne f i t c os t a na l ys i s

. P e r f or m a nc e of t he de ve l ope d m e t hods i s i l l us t r a t e d t hr ough a n a ppl i c a t i on t o

di a dr om ous f i s h pa s s a ge r e s t or a t i on i n a R hode I s l a nd w a t e r s he d. R e s ul t s s ugge s t

t ha t l e s s s t r uc t ur e d t r e a t m e nt s of e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge w i t hi n s t a t e d pr e f e r e nc e

s ur ve ys c a n om i t i nf o r m a t i on t ha t i s e s s e nt i a l f or t he e s t i m a t i on of nonus e o r

i ndi r e c t us e va l ue s a nd r e l e va nt t o r e s ponde nt s w h e n de t e r m i ni ng W T P

.W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 2 I n t r od u c t i on

M a ny r e c e nt s t udi e s a ppl y s t a t e d pr e f e r e nc e ( S P ) t e c hni que s t o a s s e s s w i l l i ngne s s t o pa y ( W T P )

f

or pol i c i e s t ha t a f f

e c t t he e c ol ogy of a qua t i c s ys t e m s ( e

. g.

, B a t e m a n e t a l

. 2006; B oye r a nd

P ol a s ky 2004; F l or e s a nd S ha f r a n 2006 ; H a nl e y e t a l

. 2006; H ol m e s e t a l

. 2004; J ohns t on e t a l

. 20 02; L oom i s e t a l

. 2000; M or r i s on a nd B e nne t t 2 004; M or r i s on e t a l

. 2002 )

. T he va l i di t y o f

r e s ul t i ng w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s de pe nds on a n a ppr op r i a t e i nt e gr a t i on o f e c ol ogi c a l a nd e c onom i c

i nf or m a t i on. T o da t e

, how e ve r

, t he i nt e gr a t i on of e c ol ogi c a l i nf or m a t i on w i t hi n S P m e t hods ha s

be e n l i m i t e d. A ke y c onc e r n i s t ha t S P s ur ve ys of t e n c om m uni c a t e e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge s us i ng ad

hoc

, ove r s i m pl i f i e d r e pr e s e nt a t i ons of e c ol ogi c a l s ys t e m s ( J ohns t on e t a l

. 2007)

. i M e a s ur e s of

c ha nge i n a qua t i c l i vi ng r e s our c e s pr e s e nt e d i n S P s ur ve ys

, f or e xa m pl e

, a r e r a r e l y de ve l ope d

w i t hi n t he c ont e xt of e s t a bl i s he d m ode l s or f or m a l i ndi c a t or s f r om t he e c ol ogi c a l l i t e r a t ur e

, a n d

a r e f r e que nt l y ba s e d on a r bi t r a r y, va gue or i na de qua t e l y de f i ne d m e a s ur e m e nt uni t s

.

A c a s e i n poi nt i s t he c om m on us e o f e c ol ogi c a l l y i ndi s t i nc t t e r m s s uc h a s “ l o w

, ”

“ m e di um ” or “ hi gh” bi od i ve r s i t y ( e

. g.

, C a r l s s on e t a l

. 2003; G a r r od a nd W i l l i s 1997) or “ uni que ”

e c ol ogi c a l qua l i t y ( e

. g

. , M c G ona gl e a nd S w a l l ow 2005; O pa l uc h e t a l

. 1993)

. S i m i l a r l y

, H a nl e y

e t a l

. ( 2006, p. 186) c ha r a c t e r i z e e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on us i ng de s c r i pt or s s uc h a s a “ w i de ” ve r s us

“ poor ” “ r a nge of w a t e r pl a nt s

, i ns e c t s a nd bi r ds

, ” n ot i ng t ha t “ none o f t he s e a t t r i but e s a r e

ne c e s s a r i l y c ons i s t e nt w i t h w ha t a n e c ol ogi s t w oul d c hoos e i n t e r m s o f e i t he r i ndi c a t or s of t he

e c ol ogi c a l he a l t h of a w a t e r bo dy, or unde r l yi ng f a c t or s dr i vi ng c ha nge s i n e c ol ogi c a l s t a t us

. ”

A l t hough r e pr e s e nt a t i ons of e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge w i t hi n S P s ur ve ys s houl d r e f l e c t t he c ogni t i ve

c a pa c i t y of s ur ve y r e s ponde nt s

, w e a k c or r e s ponde nc e be t w e e n e c ol ogi c a l a nd e c onom i c m ode l

c om pone n t s c a n r e nde r s ur ve y r e s ul t s of l i m i t e d us e f or pol i c y e va l ua t i on, bi a s a s s oc i a t e d

w e l f a r e m e a s ur e s

, a nd pr om o t e s ke pt i c i s m a m ong na t ur a l s c i e nt i s t s a nd pol i c y a na l ys t s

.

T hi s pa pe r i nt r oduc e s a va r i a nt o f S P va l ua t i on de s i gne d t o a ddr e s s t he s e a nd ot he r

c r i t i c i s m s

. T hi s a ppr oa c h

, w hi c h w e c a l l B i oi ndi c a t or

- B as e d St at e d P r e f

e r e nc e V al uat i on

( B SP V )

, i s di s t i ngui s he d by gui de l i ne s t ha t

, a m ong ot he r t h i ngs

, i n f or m t he s t r uc t ur e a nd us e of

e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s t o de f i ne pol i c y s c e na r i os i n va l ua t i on s ur ve ys

. S pe c i f i c a l l y de s i gne d f or

a

ppl i c a t i ons t o e c ol ogi c a l s ys t e m s

, t he gui de l i ne s u nde r l yi ng B S P V p r om ot e e c ol ogi c a l c l a r i t y

a nd c l os e r i nt e gr a t i on o f e c ol ogi c a l a nd e c onom i c i nf or m a t i on. T he a ppr oa c h be gi ns w i t h a

f

or m a l ba s i s i n e c ol ogi c a l s c i e nc e a nd e xt e nds t o r e l a t i ons hi ps be t w e e n a t t r i but e s i n r e s ponde nt s ’

pr e f e r e nc e f unc t i ons a nd t hos e us e d t o c ha r a c t e r i z e pol i c y out c om e s

. T he r e s ul t i ng w e l f a r e

m e a s ur e s c a n be una m bi guous l y l i nk e d t o m ode l s a nd i ndi c a t or s of e c os ys t e m f unc t i on, a r e

ba s e d on m e a s ur a bl e e c o l ogi c a l out c om e s

, a nd a r e m or e e a s i l y i nc or por a t e d i nt o be ne f i t c os t

a na l ys i s

. B S P V a l s o pr ovi de s a m e a ns t o e s t i m a t e va l ue s f or e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s t ha t i ndi vi dua l s

m i ght va l ue

, e ve n t hough t he y m a y not f ul l y unde r s t a nd a l l r e l e va nt e c ol ogi c a l s c i e nc e

.

P e r f or m a nc e of t he de ve l ope d m e t hods i s i l l us t r a t e d t hr ough a n a ppl i c a t i on t o m i gr a t o r y

( di a dr om ous ) f i s h pa s s a ge r e s t or a t i on i n a R hode I s l a nd w a t e r s he d. i i R e s ul t s pr ovi de s om e t i m e s

une xpe c t e d i ns i ght s i nt o publ i c pr e f e r e nc e s f or a qu a t i c e c os ys t e m r e s t or a t i on, m a ny o f w hi c h

m i ght be obs c ur e d by m or e t r a di t i ona l a ppr oa c he s t o w e l f a r e e va l ua t i on

. T he s e a nd o t he r

f i ndi ngs s ugge s t t ha t l e s s s t r uc t ur e d t r e a t m e nt s of e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge w i t hi n S P s ur ve ys c a n om i t

i nf or m a t i on t ha t i s bot h e s s e nt i a l f or t he e s t i m a t i on of nonus e o r i ndi r e c t us e va l ue s a nd hi ghl y

r e l e va nt t o r e s ponde nt s w he n de t e r m i ni ng W T P

.W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 3 V al u at i on o f e c ol ogi c al r e s t or at i on : C on c e p t u al an d t h e or e t i c al c h al l e n ge s

S t a t e d pr e f e r e nc e m e t hods

, i nc l udi ng c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt s

, us e c a r e f ul l y de s i gne d s ur ve y s t o

e s t i m a t e publ i c

, of t e n non

- m a r ke t va l ue s f or w e l l

- de f i ne d c ha nge s i n t he qua nt i t y or qua l i t y o f a

bundl e of goods a nd s e r vi c e s

. C hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt s pr e s e nt i ndi vi dua l s w i t h a n oppo r t uni t y t o

s e l e c t one out of a s e t of a va i l a bl e m ul t i a t t r i but e o pt i ons o r t o r e j e c t a l l of t he pr e s e nt e d opt i ons

i n f a vor of t he s t a t us quo ( A da m ow i c z e t a l

. 1998; L ouvi e r e e t a l

. 2000 )

. C hoi c e da t a ove r m a ny

s e t s of pos s i bl e c hoi c e opt i ons

, w he r e e a c h opt i on i s de f i ne d by c om pone nt a t t r i but e l e ve l s

,

e na bl e s t he pr oba bi l i t y of c hoi c e t o be m ode l e d a s a f unc t i on o f a t t r i but e l e ve l s ( B e nne t t a nd

B l a m e y 2001)

. i i i M ode l r e s ul t s r e ve a l t r a de of f

s m a de by r e s ponde nt s w he n c hoos i ng ove r

opt i ons ; r e s ponde nt s ’ w i l l i ngne s s t o t r a de of f non

- m one t a r y a t t r i but e s ( e

. g.

, e c ol ogi c a l a t t r i but e s )

f

o r c ha nge s i n hous e hol d c os t p r ovi de s t he t he or e t i c a l a nd e m pi r i c a l ba s i s f or W T P e s t i m a t i on.

T o yi e l d va l i d e s t i m a t e s of va l ue

, S P s ur ve ys a nd e s t i m a t i on m e t hods m us t ha ve c e r t a i n

f

e a t ur e s ( c f

. B a t e m a n e t a l

. 2002; B e nne t t a nd B l a m e y 2001; L ouvi e r e e t a l

. 2000 )

. F or e xa m pl e

, i ndi vi dua l s c a n onl y m a ke w e l l

- i nf or

m e d c hoi c e s i f pr ovi de d w i t h s uf f i c i e nt i nf o r m a t i on ( H a ne m a nn 1994)

. I n t he c ont e xt o f e c ol ogi c a l r e s t or a t i on, w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s a r e c ont i nge nt upon

i nf or m a t i on t ha t a l l ow s r e s ponde nt s t o p r e di c t t he e xpe c t e d i nf l ue nc e of e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge s on

t he i r w e l f a r e ( B i ngha m e t a l

. 1995 )

. O ne of t he a s s oc i a t e d c ha l l e nge s i n t he de s i gn of s ur ve y s f or

va l ua t i on of a qua t i c e c os ys t e m r e s t or a t i on i s c ha r a c t e r i z a t i on of t he c ondi t i on a nd c ha nge i n

e c os ys t e m f unc t i on a nd r e l a t e d i m pa c t s on va l ue d goods a nd s e r vi c e s ( F l or e s a nd S ha f r a n 2006)

.

W i t hi n t he f o l l ow i ng di s c us s i on, w e di s t i ngui s h be t w e e n t w o t e r m s

. T he t e r m “ a t t r i but e ”

he r e r e f e r s e i t he r t o a n a r gum e nt i n a u t i l i t y f unc t i o n or t o a c or r e s pondi ng e l e m e nt

c ha r a c t e r i z i ng a s t a t e d pr e f e r e nc e c hoi c e opt i on. T he t e r m “ e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or

, ” i n c ont r a s t

,

r e f e r s t o a m e a s u r e t ha t c ha r a c t e r i z e s

, a nd m a y be us e d t o c om m uni c a t e

, t he c ondi t i on o f a n

e c os ys t e m or one of i t s c om pone nt s ( J a c ks on e t a l

. 2000)

.

W hi l e not m a de e xpl i c i t i n m os t S P s t udi e s i v

, e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge i s m os t of t e n

c om m uni c a t e d t hr ough i ndi c a t o r s

. T ha t i s

, e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s

— e i t he r f or

m a l or ad hoc

— a r e

of

t e n us e d a s a t t r i but e s i n c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt s

. E c o l ogi s t s ha ve de ve l ope d i ndi c a t or s s uc h a s

e c ol og i c a l di ve r s i t y a nd i nt e gr i t y i ndi c e s

, a m ong m a ny ot he r s

, t o r e pr e s e nt t he s t a t us a nd

f unc t i on of na t ur a l s ys t e m s ( B or t one 2005 ; D a vi s a nd S i m on 1995 ; J or ge ns e n e t a l

. 2004)

. v

W i t hi n S P va l ua t i on, t he r ol e of s uc h i ndi c a t or s i s t o c om m uni c a t e c ha nge s i n w e l f a r e

- r e l e va nt

qua l i t i e s or qua nt i t i e s

, s uc h t ha t m e a ni ngf ul e xpr e s s i ons of va l ue c a n be e l i c i t e d ( S pa s h a nd

H a nl e y 1995)

. T hi s e c ol ogi c a l i n f or m a t i on m us t n ot onl y be pl a c e d i n a f or m a t t ha t i s r e a di l y

unde r s t ood by r e s ponde nt s

, but t ha t a l s o p r ovi de s a n a c c ur a t e r e pr e s e nt a t i on of t he c ha nge be i ng

va l ue d. A s s t a t e d by S c hi l l e r e t a l

. ( 2001)

, “ e f f

e c t i ve c om m uni c a t i on of e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s

i nvol ve [ s ] m or e t ha n s i m pl y t r a ns f or m i ng s c i e nt i f i c phr a s e s i nt o e a s i l y c om pr e he ns i bl e w or ds

. [ I t

r e qui r e s ] l a ngua ge t ha t s i m ul t a ne ous l y f i t [ s ] w i t hi n bot h s c i e nt i s t s ’ a nd nons c i e nt i s t s ’ ...f r a m e s of

r e f e r e nc e

, s uc h t ha t r e s ul t i ng i ndi c a t or s [ a r e ] a t on c e t e c hni c a l l y a c c ur a t e a nd unde r s t a nda bl e

. ”

I n c ont r a s t t o t he c a r e de vot e d t o i nd i c a t or de ve l op m e nt a nd i nt e r p r e t a t i on i n t he

e c ol ogi c a l l i t e r a t ur e

, i ndi c a t or s us e d i n S P s ur ve ys of t e n l a c k doc um e nt e d r e f e r e nc e t o e m pi r i c a l

f i ndi ngs r e ga r di ng w a ys i n w hi c h na t u r a l s ys t e m s r e s pond t o c ha nge s or s t r e s s e s

, a nd ha ve of t e nW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 4 m i ni m a l gr oundi ng i n p r i or e c ol ogi c a l r e s e a r c h. A s a r e s ul t

, i ndi c a t or s of e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge

pr e s e nt e d i n S P s ur ve ys : ( 1) r a r e l y c o r r e s pond t o f or m a l i ndi c a t or s p r e s e nt e d i n t he publ i s he d

e c ol ogi c a l l i t e r a t ur e

, ( 2) a r e o f t e n a m bi guous l y l i n ke d t o qua nt i f i a

bl e pol i c y i m pa c t s

, ( 3 ) a r e

of

t e n ba s e d on a rbi t r a r y o r va gu e m e a s ur e m e nt uni t s

, a nd ( 4 ) ha ve o f t e n i nc om pl e t e o r

a m bi guous l i nks t o e c os ys t e m goods or s e r vi c e s va l ue d by r e s ponde nt s

.

F or e xa m pl e

, S P s t udi e s of t e n de f i ne pol i c y c ha ng e s s ol e l y i n t e r m s of c onve ni e nt uni t s

s uc h a s t he num be r or ga ni s m s or a c r e s of ha bi t a t a f f

e c t e d. W hi l e de s c r i pt i ons s uc h a s t he s e m a y

r e l a t e t o w e l f a r e

- r e l e va nt a t t r i but e s i n di r e c t or i ndi r e c t w a ys

, i s unl i ke l y t ha t s uc h

c ha r a c t e r i z a t i ons by t he m s e l ve s pr om ot e va l i d e xp r e s s i ons of w e l f a r e

. F or e xa m pl e

, i t i s not

c l e a r w he t he r

, w h e n a ns w e r i ng va l ua t i on que s t i ons of t h i s t ype

, r e s ponde nt s a r e di r e c t l y va l ui ng

t he c om m odi t y ove r w hi c h t he y ha ve pr e f e r e nc e s

. D o r e s ponde nt s c a r e di r e c t l y a bout t he l os s of

a s pe c i f i c num be r of f i s h, bi r ds o r ot he r or ga ni s m s

, or do t he y i ns t e a d c a r e a bou t ot he r

e nvi r onm e nt a l a t t r i but e s o r out c om e s

, s uc h a s e c os ys t e m c ondi t i on or bi odi ve r s i t y

, a nd us e t he

num be r of f i s h or bi r ds a s a pr oxy f or t he a t t r i but e s or out c om e s o f r e a l c onc e r n? I n t he l a t t e r

c a s e

, r e s ponde nt s m i ght a s s um e e c ol ogi c a l pr oduc t i on f un c t i on r e l a t i ons hi ps t ha t do not

c or r e s pond w i t h t hos e qua nt i f i e d by e c ol ogi s t s

. F o r e xa m pl e

, r e s ponde nt s m i ght us e pr e s e nt e d

i nf or m a t i on on or ga ni s m nu m be r s or ha bi t a t a r e a t o m a ke s pe c ul a t i ve i nf e r e nc e s r e ga r di ng o t he r

om i t t e d but w e l f a r e r e l e va nt e c ol ogi c a l a t t r i but e s

.

A r e l a t e d c r i t i c i s m o f S P m e t hods

, a nd e c onom i c v a l ua t i on i s ge ne r a l

, i s t ha t l a y

i ndi vi dua l s m i ght not unde r s t a nd or a ppr e c i a t e f ul l y t he e c ol ogi c a l i m po r t a nc e of c e r t a i n s pe c i e s

or pr oc e s s e s

, a nd he nc e e s t i m a t e d e c onom i c va l ue s w i l l not r e f l e c t t he t r ue va l ue of t he s e

e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge s ( e

. g.

, U

. S

. E P A 2009 )

. T hi s i s m os t l i ke l y t o be a c onc e r n f or nonus e va l ue s

or us e va l ue s f or w hi c h t he i m pl i c a t i ons f or us e a r e ve r y i ndi r e c t

, s uc h a s va l ue s s t e m m i ng f r om

c ont r i but i ons of m i c r oor ga ni s m s or i ns e c t s t o s oi l f or m a t i on, pr i m a r y pr oduc t i vi t y

, a nd ove r a l l

e c ol ogi c a l i nt e gr i t y o r c ondi t i on ( e

. g

. , N i c hol s e t a l

. 2008; W e s l a w s ki e t a l

. 2004 )

. v i S uc h

c ont r i but i ons a r e of t e n c a pt ur e d poo r l y i f a t a l l by t he t ype s of e c ol ogi c a l va r i a bl e s o f t e n

i nc l u de d i n S P s t udi e s

, s uc h a s c ha nge s i n w a t e r q ua l i t y, a c r e a ge of w e t l a nds or ha bi t a t

, or e ve n

s pe c i e s a bunda nc e

. U nl e s s s uc h c ont r i but i ons c a n be e xpr e s s e d i n t e r m s t ha t s ur ve y r e s ponde nt s

c a n unde r s t a nd a nd va l ue

, a nd t ha t a r e c ons i s t e nt w i t h e c ol ogi c a l s c i e nc e

, w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s w i l l

not r e f l e c t t he f ul l r a nge o f pot e nt i a l va l ue s de r i ve d f r om e c ol ogi c a l s ys t e m s

. v i i

A m bi guous c or r e s ponde nc e be t w e e n S P s ur ve y a t t r i but e s a nd m e a s ur a bl e pol i c y i m pa c t s

c a n a l s o r e nde r w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s of l i m i t e d us e f or pol i c y e va l ua t i ons

. E c ol ogi c a l out c om e s of

pol i c y i m pl e m e nt a t i on a r e qua nt i f i e d

, bot h i n e x a nt e pr e di c t i ons a nd e x pos t e va l ua t i ons

,

t hr ough e f f

e c t s on m e a s ur a bl e out c om e s

, of t e n c a l l e d m e a s ur e m e nt e ndpoi nt s ( U

. S

. E P A 1998 )

. A n e m e r gi ng l i t e r a t ur e di s c us s e s w a ys i n w hi c h t he s e e ndpoi nt s c or r e s pond t o w e l l

- de f i ne d

e c os ys t e m s e r vi c e s a nd ot he r va l ue d out put s ( B oyd a nd B a nz ha f 2006)

. S P va l ua t i on, i n c ont r a s t

, of

t e n de r i ve s w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s a s a f unc t i on of a t t r i but e s t ha t ha ve l i t t l e s ys t e m a t i c r e l a t i ons hi p

t o m e a s ur a bl e out c om e s

. A s not e d a bove

, t he us e o f e c ol ogi c a l l y a m bi guous de s c r i pt or s s uc h a s

“ uni que w i l dl i f e ha bi t a t

, ” “ hi gh qua l i t y gr oundw a t e r

, ” or “ hi gh bi odi ve r s i t y” i s w i de s pr e a d

a m ong S P s ur ve ys i n t he l i t e r a t ur e

. A c ons e que nc e i s t ha t a s s oc i a t e d w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s c a nnot be

i nt e gr a t e d i nt o be ne f i t c os t a na l ys e s w i t hout ad ho c a nd of t e n que s t i ona bl e a s s um pt i ons r e qui r e d

t o r e c onc i l e e c ol ogi c a l l y a m bi guous S P a t t r i but e s w i t h m e a s ur a bl e pol i c y out c om e s

. v i i iW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 5 T

he t he or e t i c al is s ue

A s w i t h a l l e c onom i c va l ue s

, W T P e s t i m a t e d us i ng S P m e t hods i s c ont i nge nt upon t he

i nf or m a t i on a va i l a bl e t o r e s ponde nt s

— e i t he r a s pr ovi de d by t he s ur ve y or de r i ve d f r om ot he r

s our c e s ( B e r gs t r om a nd S t ol l 1989; B e r gs t r om e t a l

. 1989; C a m e r on a nd E ngl i n 1997; H oe hn

a nd R a nda l l 2002)

. I n t he vi e w o f m a ny e c ol ogi s t s a nd e c onom i s t s

, S P s ur ve y i ns t r um e nt s of t e n

f

a i l t o p r ovi de s uf f i c i e nt i nf o r m a t i on t o e na bl e r e s p onde nt s t o unde r s t a nd pot e nt i a l e f f

e c t s of

e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge on w e l f a r e ( S pa s h a nd H a nl e y 1 995)

.

I n f o r m a l t e r m s

, t he que s t i on r e ga r ds t he c ont e nt a nd s t r uc t ur e of t he ut i l i t y f unc t i on. F or

e xa m pl e

, a s s um e t ha t r e s ponde nt i ’ s ut i l i t y i s o f t h e f or m U i (

E ( X

) )

, w he r e E (

⋅ ) i s e c os ys t e m

i nt e gr i t y, bi odi ve r s i t y o r s om e ot he r va l ue d e c ol og i c a l out c om e a nd X i s t he num be r o f m i g r a t or y

f i s h pa s s i ng ups t r e a m

, or s om e ot he r qua nt i f i a

bl e m e a s ur e

. I f t he r e s ponde nt c a r e s a bout X s ol e l y

be c a us e of i t s i m pa c t on E (

⋅ )

, t he n a va l ua t i on que s t i on f r a m e d s ol e l y i n t e r m s of X e f f

e c t i ve l y

a s ks t he r e s ponde nt t o di r e c t l y va l ue c ha nge s i n t h e i nput r a t he r t ha n c ha nge s i n t he out put t ha t

di r e c t l y i nf l ue nc e s ut i l i t y

. T hi s i s a ki n t o a s ki ng a n i ndi vi dua l t o va l ue a c ha nge i n t he l a bor o r

c a pi t a l t ha t i s us e d i n t he pr oduc t i on of a good o r s e r vi c e

, r a t he r t ha n a c ha nge i n t he out put o f

t he good or s e r vi c e t ha t r e s ul t s f r om t he i nput c ha nge ( B oyd a nd B a nz ha f 2006)

.

T he f i r s t i m pl i c a t i on of t h i s i s a pot e nt i a l f or bi a s

. A pr e f e r e nc e f unc t i on of t he f o r m

U

i (

E ( X

)

) c a n be m at he m at i c al l y c ol l a ps e d t o U i (

X

)

. H ow e ve r

, i f i ndi v i dua l s va l ue E (

⋅ ) di r e c t l y

,

t he s pe c i f i c a t i on of va l ua t i on s c e na r i os s ol e l y i n t e r m s of X w i l l l i ke l y l e a d t o bi a s e d W T P

e s t i m a t e s

, be c a us e t hi s r e qui r e s r e s ponde nt s t o a s s um e t he i r ow n ( a l m os t c e r t a i nl y i nc or r e c t )

e c ol ogi c a l pr oduc t i on f unc t i on ( i

. e

. , t o a s s um e a r e l a t i ons hi p be t w e e n X a nd E )

. A s not e d by

C a r s on ( 1998, p

. 23 )

, “ [ r ] e s ponde nt s w i l l t e nd t o f i l l i n w ha t e ve r de t a i l s a r e m i s s i ng i n t he

...

s ur ve y w i t h de f a

ul t a s s um pt i ons

. T he s e m a y di f f

e r c ons i de r a bl y f r om w ha t t he r e s e a r c he r

pe r c e i ve s

. ” T hi s i s pa r t i c ul a r l y t r ue f or e c ol ogi c a l r e s our c e s a nd f unc t i ons

, f or w hi c h r e s ponde nt s

of

t e n ha ve l i t t l e ba s e l i ne i nf or m a t i on ( e

. g.

, C a r s on 1998; S pa s h a nd H a nl e y 1995 )

.

T he pot e nt i a l f or bi a s i s c om pounde d i f ut i l i t y t a ke s a m or e c om pl e x f or m s uc h a s

U

i (

E ( X

)

, H ( X

)

, X )

, w he r e H ( X

) r e pr e s e nt s a s e c ond va l ue d e c ol ogi c a l out c om e i nf l ue nc e d by X

. F or e xa m pl e

, H (

⋅

) m i ght r e pr e s e nt e xpe c t e d qua l i t y of r e c r e a t i ona l f i s hi ng f or non

- di a dr om ous

s pe c i e s ( e

. g.

, l a r ge m out h ba s s )

, w he r e di a dr om ous f i s h c oul d ha ve a pos i t i ve ( ) or

ne ga t i ve ( ) m a r gi na l e f f

e c t on r e c r e a t i ona l f i s he r i e s

, de pe ndi ng on e c ol ogi c a l

r e l a t i ons hi ps

. i x H e r e

, X i n f l ue nc e s ut i l i t y d i r e c t l y, a s w e l l a s i ndi r e c t l y t hr ough i t s i nf l ue nc e on

bot h E ( X

) a nd H ( X

)

. M or e ove r

, t he i ndi r e c t e f f

e c t s m a y not be uni ve r s a l l y pos i t i ve

. I n t hi s

c ont e xt

, a ppr opr i a t e m ode l i ng o f ut i l i t y i s c r i t i c a l t o obt a i ni ng unde r s t a ndi ng a nd unbi a s e d

e s t i m a t e s of va l ue s f or pol i c i e s t ha t i nf l ue nc e X

, E ( X

) a nd H ( X

)

.

T he s i t ua t i on i s f ur t he r c om pl i c a t e d i f one c a nnot obs e r ve e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s di r e c t l y.

A s s um e

, f or e xa m pl e

, t ha t e c ol ogi s t s ha ve de ve l op e d m ul t i m e t r i c i ndi c a t or s of ove r a l l e c os ys t e m

c ondi t i on t ha t a r e de s i gne d t o pr oxy f o r t r ue unde r l yi ng e c os ys t e m c ondi t i on, E (

⋅ )

, t ha t w e

a s s um e i nf l ue nc e s i ndi vi dua l s ’ w e l l be i ng. A s a s i m pl e i l l us t r a t i on, a s s um e t ha t t he m ul t i m e t r i c

i ndi c a t or W i s a f o r m a l i nd i c a t or o r m e a s ur e of E (

⋅ ) de ve l ope d by e c ol ogi s t s

. H ow e ve r

, t heW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 6 s ur ve y de s i gne r

, c onc e r ne d t ha t r e s ponde nt s w i l l n ot be a bl e t o unde r s t a nd W ( o r una w a r e o f t he

a

ppr opr i a t e e c ol ogi c a l l i t e r a t u r e )

, i ns t e a d us e s a s i m pl i f i e d, ad hoc i ndi c a t or ( e

. g.

, h i gh, m e di um

,

l ow )

, w hi c h w e de not e

. I n t hi s c a s e

, r e s ponde nt s m us t i nf e r E (

⋅ ) ba s e d on

, w i t h no

pr ovi de d f unc t i on or i nf or m a t i on t o m a ke t hi s i n f e r e n c e ; t he r e i s no qua nt i t a t i ve r e l a t i ons hi p

be t w e e n a nd e i t he r W o r E (

⋅ )

. x H e nc e

, t he m ode l e s t i m a t e s W T P f o r a de r i ve d i ndi c a t o r

, ,

w hi c h ha s no f or m a l e c ol ogi c a l i nt e r p r e t a t i on o r l i nk t o m e a s ur a bl e pol i c y out c o m e s

.

T he r e m a i nde r of t hi s pa pe r p r e s e nt s a nd i l l us t r a t e s t he us e of a va r i a nt of t he S P m e t hod

de s i gne d t o a m e l i or a t e t he s e l i m i t a t i ons

. I n pa r t i c u l a r

, i t a l l ow s f o r t he i nc or por a t i on of

i ndi c a t or s de s i gne d t o c a pt ur e nonus e or i ndi r e c t u s e va l ue s i n a m a nne r t ha t i s bot h g r ounde d i n

t he r e l e va nt e c ol ogi c a l s c i e nc e a nd a bl e t o di s t i ngu i s h a m ong t he va r i ous w a ys i n w hi c h

e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge s i nf l ue nc e r e s ponde nt s ’ w e l f a r e

. x i

S t r u c t u r e d u s e o f e c ol ogi c al i n d i c at or s w i t h i n s t at e d p r e f e r e n c e val u at i on

O ut c om e s of e c ol ogi c a l r e s t or a t i on m a y be m e a s ur e d a nd r e pr e s e nt e d us i ng e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s

de ve l ope d by na t ur a l s c i e nt i s t s

. S om e of t he s e i ndi c a t or s m a y be s i m pl e a nd d i r e c t

, s uc h a s t he

us e of l a s e r / opt i c a l f i s h c ount e r da t a t o m e a s ur e t h e num be r of f i s h pa s s i ng ups t r e a m t h r ough a

f i s h l a dde r

. O t he r s a r e m o r e c om pl e x, l e s s di r e c t

, a nd c a n r e qui r e a ddi t i ona l i nt e r pr e t a t i on

. F or

e xa m pl e

, t he e c ol ogi c a l l i t e r a t ur e o f f

e r s num e r ous i nt e gr a t i ve

, m ul t i m e t r i c i ndi c a t or s t ha t

f

or m a l l y a s s i m i l a t e m ul t i pl e e c os ys t e m c om pone nt s a nd a r e w i de l y us e d a s i ndi c a t or s o f

e c os ys t e m he a l t h or c ondi t i on ( e

. g.

, B or t one 2005 ; D a vi s a nd S i m on 199 5; J or ge ns e n e t a l

. 2004 )

. T he s e i ndi c a t or s ( e

. g.

, I nde x of B i ot i c I nt e g r i t y ( I B I ) a nd t he E s t ua r i ne B i ot i c I nt e gr i t y

I nde x ( E B I ) ) a r e c a l c ul a t e d f r om e c ol ogi c a l da t a a nd pr ovi de a qua nt i t a t i ve i f c ont r ove r s i a l

m e a ns t o c ha r a c t e r i z e c ha nge s i n e c os ys t e m c ondi t i on ( B or t one 2005 ; K a r r 1981; 1991)

.

I n c ont r a s t t o t r a di t i ona l va l ua t i on, B S P V e m pl oys a m or e s t r uc t ur e d us e of e c ol ogi c a l

i ndi c a t or s t o c ha r a c t e r i z e a nd c om m un i c a t e w e l f a r e

- r e l e va nt c ha nge s

. S pe c i f i c gui de l i ne s e ns ur e

t ha t s ur ve y s c e na r i os a nd r e s ul t i ng w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s a r e c ha r a c t e r i z e d by ( 1 ) a f or m a l ba s i s i n

e s t a bl i s he d a nd m e a s ur a bl e e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s

, ( 2) a c l e a r s t r uc t ur e l i nk i ng t he s e i ndi c a t or s t o

a t t r i but e s i nf l ue nc i ng i nd i vi dua l s ’ w e l l

- be i ng

, ( 3) c ons i s t e nt a nd m e a ni ngf ul i nt e r p r e t a t i on of

e c ol ogi c a l i nf or m a t i on

, a nd ( 4) a c ons e que nt a bi l i t y t o l i nk w e l f a r e m e a s ur e s t o m e a s ur a bl e a nd

una m bi guous pol i c y out c om e s

. S pe c i f i c gui de l i ne s t o e ns ur e ( 1) t h r ough ( 4) i nc l ude :

1) I ndi c at or s us e d w i t hi n B SP V s ur v e

y s c e nar i os m us t be as s oc i at e d w i t h s pe c i f

i c and w e l l

de

f

i ne d e c ol ogi c al c hange s ov e r w hi c h r e s ponde nt s e x

pr e s s pr e f

e r e nc e s

. R e s ul t s of

pr e l i m i na r y r e s e a r c h s uc h a s f oc us gr oup s a nd c og ni t i ve i nt e r vi e w s ( J ohns t on e t a l

. 1995;

K a pl ow i t z e t a l

. 2004; P ow e 2007) s houl d be c om bi ne d w i t h f i ndi ngs f r om t he r e l e va nt

e c ol ogi c a l l i t e r a t ur e t o f i r s t de t e r m i ne a c om pr e he ns i ve s e t of e c ol ogi c a l out put s w i t h

pot e nt i a l i nf l ue nc e s on r e s ponde n t s ’ ut i l i t y, t he n t o i de nt i f y e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s be s t

a

bl e t o c ha r a c t e r i z e t hos e out put s

. T hi s r e qui r e s di f f

e r e nt i a t i on be t w e e n i nt e r m e di a t e

e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge s va l ue d s ol e l y a s i nput s i nt o ot h e r f i na l e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s ve r s us

t hos e va l ue d a t l e a s t i n pa r t due t o di r e c t i nf l ue nc e s on ut i l i t y ( B oyd a nd B a nz ha f 2006 )

. R e s ul t i ng i nf or m a t i on i s t he n us e d t o p r ovi de a on e

- t o

- one m a t c h be t w e e n e c ol ogi c a l

i ndi c a t or s ( s e r vi ng a s a t t r i bu t e s ) i n S P s c e na r i os a n d f i na l w e l f a r e

- r e l e va nt e c ol ogi c a l

out put s

. T hi s gu i de l i ne r e qui r e s m a ppi ng of r e l a t i o ns hi ps be t w e e n unde r l yi ng e c ol ogi c a lW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 7 c ha nge s

, f or m a l i ndi c a t o r s of t hos e c ha nge s

, a nd a t t r i but e s i n r e s ponde nt s ’ ut i l i t y

f unc t i ons

.

2) I ndi c at or s us e d w i t hi n B SP V s ur v e

y s c e nar i os m us t hav e a s y

s t e m at i c r e l at i ons hi p t o

e c ol o gi c al f i e l d dat a or quant i t at i v e m ode l r e s ul t s

. A l l i ndi c a t or s w i t hi n s ur ve y s c e na r i os

s houl d r e f l e c t a m e a s ur e t ha t i s e m pi r i c a l l y qua nt i f i a

bl e

, e

. g

. , a s t he out put of a

r e c ogni z e d e c ol ogi c a l m ode l or s t a nda r d f i e l d m e a s ur e m e nt

. I f or di na l c a t e gor i e s ( e

. g

. , hi gh, m e di um

, l ow ) a r e us e d t o r e p r e s e nt e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge

, t he e m p i r i c a l ba s i s f or t he s e

c a t e gor i e s m us t be de f i ne d qua nt i t a t i ve l y a nd pr e s e nt e d t o s ur ve y r e s ponde nt s

. I n

a ddi t i on, t he r e m us t be j us t i f i c a t i on f o r t he a ppl i e d c a t e gor i z a t i on w i t hi n t he e c ol ogi c a l

l i t e r a t ur e

. T ha t i s

, s ur ve y a t t r i but e s m us t be t r a c e a bl e t o una m bi guous e c ol ogi c a l

m e a s ur e m e nt s

.

3) T he quant i t at i v e bas is f or s ur v e

y at t r i but e s m us t be unde r s t andabl e t o r e s ponde nt s and

m e ani ngf ul t o s c i e nt is t s

. S ur ve y pr e t e s t i ng m us t e n s ur e t ha t r e s ponde nt s unde r s t a nd t he

uni t s a nd de f i ni t i on of e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s i nc l ud e d i n s ur ve y s c e na r i os

, a nd t ha t t he s e

c or r e s pond t o m e a ni ngf ul out c om e s f r o m t he pe r s pe c t i ve of i ndi vi dua l ut i l i t y

. R e s ponde nt s ’ unde r s t a ndi ngs ’ of i nd i c a t or uni t s

, d e f i ni t i ons a nd i nt e r p r e t a t i ons m us t

c oi nc i de

, a t l e a s t br oa dl y

, w i t h t hos e of na t ur a l s c i e nt i s t s

.

4) I ndi c at or s us e d w i t hi n B SP V s ur v e

y s c e nar i os s ho ul d be s pe c i f

i e d s uc h t hat r e s ponde nt s

c an i de nt i f

y bas e l i ne s ( i

. e

. , s t at us quo)

, r e f

e r e nc e c ondi t i ons ( i

. e

. , t he be s t pos s i bl e

out c om e or l e v e l of t he i ndi c at or i n an undi s t ur be d s y

s t e m )

, and c hange s i n bo t h r e l at i v e

and c ar di nal uni t s w he r e appl i c abl e

. F i ndi ngs f r o m t he va l ua t i on l i t e r a t ur e de m ons t r a t e

t ha t W T P of t e n de pe nds on a va i l a bl e ( or vi s i bl e ) c hoi c e s e t s

, r e f l e c t i ng t he f ul l s e t of

pol i c y opt i ons pos s i bl e w i t hi n a gi ve n c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt or pol i c y c ont e xt ( B a t e m a n e t

a l

. 2004)

. S i m i l a r l y

, e c ol ogi c a l r e f e r e nc e c ondi t i on s m a y be t hought of a s c ha r a c t e r i z i ng

t he r a nge of pos s i bl e s ubs t i t ut e goods or pol i c y out c om e s t ha t m i ght be a va i l a bl e

,

r e ga r dl e s s of w he t he r t he s e a r e a va i l a bl e i n pr e s e nt e d s ur ve y s c e na r i os

. R e f e r e nc e

c ondi t i ons a l s o pr ovi de a m e a ns t o i nt e r pr e t qua nt i t i e s s uc h a s “ 200, 000 bi r ds ” t ha t m i ght

be ot he r w i s e l a r ge l y m e a ni ngl e s s t o l a y r e s ponde nt s ( e

. g.

, D e s vous ge s e t a l

. 1993; s e e

a l s o c om m e nt s by H a ne m a nn 1994)

. T he c om m uni c a t i on of e c ol ogi c a l i n f or m a t i on i n

t hi s m or e c om pr e he ns i ve m a nne r pr ovi de s r e s pond e nt s ’ w i t h a n i nc r e a s e d c a pa c i t y t o

c om pr e he nd pol i c y s c ope a nd t o a nt i c i pa t e e f f

e c t s on w e l f a r e

.

5) I ndi c at or s us e d w i t hi n B SP V s ur v e

y s c e nar i os m us t be de s c r i be d s o t hat r e s ponde nt s c an

unde r s t and pot e nt i al l i nk age s be t w e e n e c ol ogi c al at t r i but e s and how t he s e ar e

, or ar e

not

, c apt ur e d i n i l l us t r at e d s c e nar i os

. T o pr e ve nt r e s ponde nt s pe c ul a t i on r e ga r di ng

e c ol ogi c a l pr oduc t i on f unc t i ons a nd i m pl i c a t i ons f or va l ue d e c ol ogi c a l out put s

, s ur ve ys

s houl d pr ovi de s uf f i c i e nt i nf or

m a t i on r e ga r d i ng r e l a t i ons hi ps be t w e e n e c ol ogi c a l

f unc t i ons

, e

. g

. , a s i nput s a nd out put s a c c or di ng t o e c ol ogi c a l pr oduc t i on f unc t i ons

. T h i s

,

t oge t he r w i t h ot he r B S P V gui de l i ne s

, c a n he l p pr e ve nt pr obl e m s i n w h i c h, f or e xa m pl e

,

r e s ponde nt s ’ c hoi c e s r e f l e c t a s pe c ul a t e d ( l i ke l y i n c or r e c t ) va l ue f or a n om i t t e d

e c ol ogi c a l out c om e E ( X

) c a us e d by a pr e s e nt e d c h a nge i n X

.

6) I ndi c at or s us e d w i t hi n B SP V s ur v e

y s c e nar i os m us t pr ov i de a c om pr e he ns i v e pe r s pe c t i v eW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 8 on w e l f

ar e

- r e l e v ant pol i c y out c om e s

, i nc l udi ng bot h di r e c t and i ndi r e c t e f f

e c t s

. A s not e d

a

bove

, i nc om pl e t e c ove r a ge of w e l f a r e

- r e l e va nt ou t c om e s i n s ur ve y s c e na r i os c a n

e nc our a ge r e s ponde nt s t o s pe c ul a t e r e ga r di ng om i t t e d out c om e s

. F or t he c a s e of c om pl e x

e c ol ogi c a l s ys t e m s

, s uc h s pe c ul a t i on w i l l a l m os t c e r t a i nl y l e a d t o i nc or r e c t a s s um pt i ons

r e ga r di ng t he va l ue of t he s e out c om e s

. F or m a ny r e s t or a t i on pol i c i e s t hi s gui de l i ne

r e qui r e s s pe c i f i c a t i on of ou t c om e s ( us i ng a ppr opr i a t e e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s ) a t t hr e e

l e ve l s : ( 1) t he di r e c t e f f

e c t of pr opos e d pol i c i e s on t a r ge t e d s pe c i e s or ha bi t a t s ( e

. g

. , a n

i nc r e a s e i n t he num be r of f i s h a bl e t o t r a ve l ups t r e a m t o s pa w ni ng a r e a s due t o f i s h r un

r e s t or a t i on) ; ( 2) r e s ul t i ng i ndi r e c t e f f

e c t s on ot he r s pe c i f i c e c os ys t e m c om m odi t i e s or

hum a n us e s ( e

. g.

, i ndi r e c t e f f

e c t s of f i s h pa s s a ge on ot he r w i l d l i f e s pe c i e s ) ; ( 3 ) br oa de r

i ndi r e c t e f f

e c t s on e c os ys t e m c ondi t i on ( e

. g

. , a s m i ght be m e a s ur e d us i ng a m u l t i m e t r i c

i nde x of bi ot i c i nt e gr i t y )

. T he i nc l us i on of e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge s a t t he s e t hr e e l e ve l s a l s o

pr ovi de s a ba s i s f or i nve s t i ga t i ng t he s t r uc t ur e of p r e f e r e nc e s

. F or e xa m pl e

, i t a l l ow s a

t e s t of w he t he r u t i l i t y t a ke s t he f or m or s i m pl y

. T h a t i s

, i t a l l ow s

f

or a di s t i nc t i on be t w e e n ut i l i t y ga i ne d f r om s pe c i f i c e l e m e nt s of t he e c ol ogi c a l s ys t e m

a nd ut i l i t y a s s oc i a t e d w i t h ove r a l l s ys t e m c ondi t i o n, t he l a t t e r o f w hi c h m a y be a s our c e

of pe r ha ps s ubs t a nt i a l no nus e va l ue s

.

A s not e d a bove

, t he r e a r e m a ny e xa m pl e s of S P s u r ve y i ns t r um e nt s a ddr e s s i ng a qua t i c

r e s t or a t i on t ha t i nc o r por a t e e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t o r s

— e i t he r s i m pl e or c om pl e x

— i n a l e s s s t r uc t ur e d

m a nne r

. S om e of t he s e s ur ve ys m a y ha ve ge ne r a t e d va l i d w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s

. H ow e ve r

, t he l a c k

of a c l e a r f r a m e w or k s pe c i f yi ng l i nka ge s a m ong di f f

e r e nt t ype s o f e c ol ogi c a l i m pa c t s

, w e l l

de f i ne d e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s a nd t he s t r uc t ur e o f r e s ponde nt s ’ ut i l i t y c a n l e a d t o a m bi gui t y

r e ga r di ng t he i n t e r pr e t a t i on of m ode l r e s ul t s a nd p ot e nt i a l bi a s i n w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s

. B S P V i s

de s i gne d t o a t l e a s t pa r t i a l l y a m e l i or a t e t he s e c onc e r ns a nd t he r e by pr o m ot e m o r e va l i d

e s t i m a t i on of non

- m a r ke t va l ue s

.

R andom ut i l i t y m ode l

T he t he or e t i c a l m ode l f o r t he p r e s e nt a ppl i c a t i on i s a da p t e d f r om a s t a nda r d r a ndom ut i l i t y

s pe c i f i c a t i on ( H a ne m a nn 1984)

. W e a s s um e t ha t t h e ut i l i t y o f hous e hol d h f r o m e c ol ogi c a l

r e s t or a t i on pr ogr a m k ( U h k

) i s gi ve n by

U

h k ( X k

, W k ( X k )

, Y h

- C h k

)

= v h k ( X k

, W k ( X k )

, Y h

- C h k

) + ε h k ( 1)

w he r e :

X k = ve c t or of i ndi c a t or s c ha r a c t e r i z i ng di r e c t e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s of

pr ogr a m k ;

W k (

· )

= ve c t or of i ndi c a t or s c ha r a c t e r i z i ng i ndi r e c t e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s of

pr ogr a m k ( out c om e s r e l a t e d t o di r e c t out c om e s X k ) ;

Y

h = di s pos a bl e i nc om e of hous e hol d h ;

C

h k = m a nda t or y c os t t o t he r e s ponde nt of pr e s e r va t i on p l a n k ;

v h k (

. )

= f unc t i on r e pr e s e nt i ng t he e m pi r i c a l l y m e a s ur a bl e c om pone nt of u t i l i t y;

ε

h k = unobs e r va bl e c om pone nt of ut i l i t y, m ode l e d a s e c o nom e t r i c e r r o r

.W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 9 G i ve n t he a bove s pe c i f i c a t i on, hous e hol d h c hoos e s a m ong t hr e e pol i c y pl a ns

, ( j

= A

, B

, N )

. T he

hous e hol d m a y c hoos e opt i on A

, opt i on B

, or m a y r e j e c t bot h opt i ons a nd c hoos e t he s t a t us quo

( ne i t he r pl a n, j

= N )

. A c hoi c e of ne i t he r pl a n w oul d r e s ul t i n no r e s t or a t i on a nd z e r o hous e h ol d

c os t

, C h k = 0

. T he m ode l a s s um e s t ha t hous e hol d h a s s e s s e s t he ut i l i t y t ha t w oul d r e s ul t f r om

c hoi c e opt i ons ( j

= A

, B

, N ) a nd c hoos e s t ha t w hi c h o f f

e r s t he g r e a t e s t ut i l i t y. T ha t i s

, g i ve n ( 1 )

, hous e hol d h w i l l c hoos e pl a n A i f

U

h A ( X A

, W A ( X A )

, Y A

- C h A

) ≥ U h z ( X

z , W

z ( X

z )

, Y

z - C h z

) f or z = B

, N

, ( 2)

s o t ha t

v h A ( X A

, W A ( X A )

, Y A

- C h A

) + ε k A ≥ v h z ( X

z , W

z ( X

z )

, Y

z - C h z

) + ε k z . ( 3)

I f t he ε h k a r e a s s um e d i nde pe nde nt l y a nd i de nt i c a l l y dr a w n f r om a t ype I e xt r e m e va l ue

di s t r i but i on, t he m ode l m a y be e s t i m a t e d a s a c ond i t i ona l l ogi t ( C L ) m ode l ( M a dda l a 1983 )

. T he

m i xe d l ogi t ( M L ) m ode l a ppl i e d he r e i s a ge ne r a l i z a t i on a l l ow i ng a l t e r na t i ve e r r o r s t r uc t ur e s

, a

r e l a xa t i on of c e r t a i n a s s um pt i ons i m pos e d by t he C L m ode l

, a nd e xpa nde d pos s i bi l i t i e s t o m ode l

r e s pons e he t e r oge ne i t y ( G r e e ne 2003)

.

E m p i r i c al ap p l i c at i on an d d a t a

T he S P m e t hods out l i ne d a bove w e r e de ve l ope d f o r a c a s e s t udy a ddr e s s i ng publ i c pr e f e r e nc e s

f

or t he r e s t or a t i on o f m i g r a t or y f i s h pa s s a ge i n t he P a w t uxe t a nd W ood

- P a w c a t uc k w a t e r s he ds of

R

hode I s l a nd. T he pr e s e nt i l l us t r a t i on i s dr a w n f r o m a s ubs e t of s ur ve ys a ddr e s s i ng r e s t or a t i on o f

t he P a w t uxe t W a t e r s he d. T he P a w t uxe t W a t e r s he d c ur r e nt l y pr ovi de s no s pa w ni ng ha bi t a t f or

m i gr a t or y f i s h ; a c c e s s t o a l l 4, 347 a c r e s of pot e nt i a l ha bi t a t i s bl oc ke d by 22 da m s a nd ot he r

obs t r uc t i ons ( E r ka n 2002)

. T he c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt que s t i onna i r e R hode I s l and R i v e r s : M i gr at or y

F

is he s and D am s e s t i m a t e d w i l l i ngne s s t o pa y of R hode I s l a nd r e s i de nt s f or opt i ons t ha t w oul d

pr ovi de f i s h pa s s a ge ove r da m s a nd a c c e s s t o be t w e e n 225 a nd 900 a c r e s o f hi s t or i c a l

, but

c ur r e nt l y i na c c e s s i bl e

, ha bi t a t

. C hoi c e s c e na r i os a nd r e s t or a t i on opt i ons w e r e i nf o r m e d i n pa r t by

da t a a nd r e s t or a t i on p r i or i t i e s i n t he St r at e gi c P l an f or t he R e s t or at i on of A nadr om ous F is he s t o

R hode I s l and C oas t al St r e am s ( E r ka n 2002 )

. A ddi t i ona l i nf or m a t i on w a s dr a w n f r om t he

e c ol ogi c a l l i t e r a t ur e on f i s h pa s s a ge r e s t or a t i on, i nt e r vi e w s w i t h e c ol ogi s t s a nd pol i c y e xpe r t s

,

a nd ot he r s our c e s de s c r i be d be l ow

. C ons i s t e nt w i t h t he s t r a t e gi c pl a n

, t he c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt

a ddr e s s e d r e s t or a t i on m e t hods t ha t ne i t he r r e qui r e da m r e m ova l no r w oul d c a us e a ppr e c i a bl e

c ha nge s i n r i ve r f l ow s ; c ons i de r e d opt i ons i nc l ude d f i s h l a dde r s

, bypa s s c ha nne l s a nd f i s h l i f t s

.

T he S P que s t i onna i r e w a s de ve l ope d a nd t e s t e d ov e r 2 1⁄2 ye a r s t hr ough a c ol l a bor a t i ve

pr oc e s s i nvol vi ng i nt e r a c t i ons of e c onom i s t s a nd e c ol ogi s t s ; m e e t i ngs w i t h r e s our c e m a na ge r s

,

na t ur a l s c i e nt i s t s

, a nd s t a ke hol de r gr oups ; a nd 12 f oc us gr oups w i t h 105 t ot a l pa r t i c i pa nt s

. x i i

E c onom i s t a nd e c ol ogi s t r e s e a r c he r s w e r e i n t i m a t e l y i nvol ve d i n a l l a s pe c t s of s ur ve y de s i gn,

a nd t he e c ol ogi s t r e s e a r c he r ha d “ ve t o pow e r ” ove r a ny a s pe c t of t he s ur ve y t ha t d i d not

i nc or por a t e s uf f i c i e nt e c ol ogi c a l c l a r i t y. I n a ddi t i o n t o s ur ve y de ve l opm e nt a nd t e s t i ng i n f oc us

gr oups

, i ndi vi dua l i nt e r vi e w s w e r e c onduc t e d w i t h bot h e c ol ogi c a l e xpe r t s a nd non

- e xpe r t s

. T he s e i nc l ude d c ogni t i ve i nt e r vi e w s ( K a pl ow i t z e t a l

. 2004)

, ve rba l pr ot oc ol s ( S c hka de a nd

P a yne 1994) a nd ot he r p r e t e s t s c onduc t e d t o ga i n a ddi t i ona l i ns i ght i nt o r e s ponde nt s ’

unde r s t a ndi ng a nd i nt e r pr e t a t i on of t he que s t i onna i r e

. x i i i C a r e f ul a t t e nt i on t o de ve l opm e nt a nd

t e s t i ng he l pe d e ns ur e t ha t t he s ur ve y l a ngua ge a nd f or m a t w oul d be e a s i l y unde r s t ood by

r e s ponde nt s

, t ha t r e s ponde nt s w oul d ha ve s i m i l a r i nt e r pr e t a t i ons of s ur ve y t e r m i n ol ogy a ndW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 10 s c e na r i os

, a nd t ha t t he s ur ve y s c e na r i os c a pt ur e d r e s t or a t i on out c om e s vi e w e d a s r e l e va nt a nd

r e a l i s t i c by bot h r e s ponde nt s a nd na t ur a l s c i e nt i s t s

. S ur ve y de ve l opm e nt pa i d pa r t i c ul a r a t t e nt i on

t o t he us e a nd i nt e r pr e t a t i on o f e c ol ogi c a l i nd i c a t or s a nd r e l a t e d i nf o r m a t i on.

T he c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt a s ke d r e s ponde nt s t o c ons i de r a l t e r na t i ve opt i ons f or t he

r e s t or a t i on of m i gr a t or y f i s h pa s s a ge i n t he P a w t ux e t W a t e r s he d

. R e s ponde nt s w e r e pr ovi de d

w i t h t w o m ul t i a t t r i but e r e s t or a t i on opt i ons

, “ R e s t or a t i o n P r o j e c t A ” a nd “ R e s t or a t i on P r oj e c t B

, ”

a s w e l l a s a s t a t us quo opt i on t ha t w oul d r e s ul t i n n o pol i c y c ha nge a nd z e r o hous e hol d c os t

. P r i or t o a dm i ni s t r a t i on of c hoi c e que s t i ons

, t he s ur ve y pr ovi de d i n f or m a t i on ( 1) de s c r i bi ng t he

c ur r e nt s t a t us of R hode I s l a nd r i ve r e c ol ogy a nd m i gr a t or y f i s h c om pa r e d t o hi s t or i c a l ba s e l i ne s

, ( 2) c ha r a c t e r i z i ng a f f

e c t e d e c ol ogi c a l s ys t e m s a nd l i nka ge s

, ( 3) de s c r i bi ng m e t hods a nd de t a i l s o f

f i s h pa s s a ge r e s t or a t i on, a nd ( 4 ) p r ovi di ng t he de f i ni t i ons

, de r i va t i ons a nd i nt e r p r e t a t i ons o f

e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s us e d i n s ur ve y s c e na r i os

, i nc l udi ng t he r e a s on f o r t he i r i nc l us i on. A l l

s ur ve y l a ngua ge a nd gr a phi c s w e r e pr e t e s t e d c a r e f ul l y t o e ns ur e r e s ponde nt c om pr e he ns i on.

U

s i ng e c ol ogi c al i ndi c at or s t o c har ac t e r i z e r e s t or at i on o ut c om e s

A s not e d a bove

, t he p r i m a r y di s t i ngui s hi ng f e a t ur e of B S P V i s t he s e t o f gui de l i ne s f or t he us e

a nd s t r uc t ur e of e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s w i t hi n s ur ve y s c e na r i os

. H e r e

, s ur ve y c hoi c e opt i ons a r e

c ha r a c t e r i z e d by s e ve n a t t r i but e s ( T a bl e 1)

. T he s e i nc l ude f i ve e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s

, one a t t r i but e

c ha r a c t e r i z i ng publ i c a c c e s s

, a nd one a t t r i bu t e c ha r a c t e r i z i ng una voi da bl e hous e hol d c os t

. T a bl e

2 i l l us t r a t e s a s s oc i a t e d a t t r i but e l e ve l s i nc l ude d i n t he c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt de s i gn.

E c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s i nc l ud e d i n e a c h c hoi c e opt i o n c ha r a c t e r i z e :

1) t he qua nt i t y of r i ve r ha bi t a t a c c e s s i bl e t o m i gr a t or y f i s he s ( ac r e s )

, ba s e d upon

r e s t or a bl e P a w t uxe t ha bi t a t a c r e a ge i n E r ka n ( 2002 ) ;

2) t he pr oba bi l i t y t ha t t he r e s t or e d f i s h r un w i l l e xi s t i n 50 ye a r s

, r e f l e c t i ng

num e r i c a l r e s ul t s t ha t c oul d be m a de a va i l a bl e t h r o ugh popul a t i on vi a bi l i t y

a na l ys i s ( P V A ) x i v ;

3) t he a bunda nc e of f i s h s ui t a bl e f or r e c r e a t i ona l ha r v e s t ( c at c h )

, r e f l e c t i ng

a

bunda nc e m e a s ur e s a va i l a bl e f r om ongoi ng s t a t e w i de r i ve r s a m pl i ng x v ;

4) t he a bunda nc e of f i s h

- de pe nde nt w i l dl i f e ( w i l dl i f

e )

, r e f l e c t i ng t he c om m on

a

ppe a r a nc e of i de nt i f i a

bl e s pe c i e s w i t hi n r e s t or e d a r e a s ; a nd

5) ove r a l l e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on ( I B I )

, r e f l e c t i ng t he ou t put of a m ul t i m e t r i c a qua t i c

e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on s c or e ( i

. e

. , i nde x of bi o t i c i nt e gr i t y)

.

F ol l ow i ng B S P V gu i de l i ne s

, a l l i ndi c a t or s ha ve a s ys t e m a t i c l i nka ge t o e c ol ogi c a l f i e l d

da t a or qua nt i t a t i ve m ode l r e s ul t s

. A t t r i but e l e ve l s ( w i t hi n t he e xpe r i m e nt a l de s i gn) a r e gr ounde d

i n f e a s i bl e r e s t or a t i on out c om e s i de nt i f i e d by e c ol ogi c a l m ode l s

, f i e l d s t udi e s or e xpe r t

c ons ul t a t i ons

. C hoi c e s c e na r i os r e pr e s e nt e a c h e c o l ogi c a l a t t r i but e i n r e l a t i ve t e r m s w i t h r e ga r d

t o uppe r a nd l ow e r r e f e r e nc e c ondi t i ons ( i

. e

. , be s t a nd w or s t pos s i bl e i n t he P a w t uxe t ) a s de f i ne d

i n s ur ve y i nf o r m a t i ona l m a t e r i a l s

. S c e na r i os a l s o p r e s e nt t he c a r di na l ba s i s f or r e l a t i ve s c or e s

w he r e a ppl i c a bl e

. x v i R e l a t i ve s c or e s r e pr e s e nt pe r c e n t pr ogr e s s t ow a r ds t he uppe r r e f e r e nc e

c ondi t i on ( 100% )

, s t a r t i ng f r om t he l ow e r r e f e r e nc e c ondi t i on ( 0 % )

. T hi s a l s o i m pl i e s bounds onW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 11 t he pot e nt i a l a t t r i but e l e ve l s t ha t m i ght oc c ur i n c h oi c e que s t i ons

, f ol l ow i ng gu i da nc e i n t he

l i t e r a t ur e t o pr ovi de v i s i bl e c hoi c e s e t s ( B a t e m a n e t a l

. 2004)

.

C ons i de r

, f or e xa m pl e

, t he a qua t i c e c ol ogi c a l c ond i t i on s c or e ( I

B I )

, de s c r i be d i n t he

s ur ve y a s “ 0

- 100 s c or e r e pr e s e nt i ng how c l os e a r i ve r i s t o t he m os t na t u r a l

, und i s t ur be d a r e a

f

ound i n R hode I s l a nd. ” T hi s i ndi c a t or w a s i nc l ude d f ol l ow i ng gui da nc e f r om pr e l i m i na r y f oc us

gr oups s ugge s t i ng t ha t r e s ponde nt s w oul d be w i l l i ng t o pa y t o r e s t or e ove r a l l e c ol ogi c a l

c ondi t i on i n t he P a w t uxe t W a t e r s he d, a bove a nd b e yond W T P r e l a t e d t o a l l ot he r i de nt i f i a

bl e

r e s t or a t i on out c om e s ( gui de l i ne #1 a bove )

. P r i or t o t he i l l us t r a t i on of I B

I s c or e s i n c hoi c e

que s t i ons

, t he s ur ve y de s c r i be d t he c a l c ul a t i on a nd qua nt i t a t i ve ba s i s f or t hi s m ul t i m e t r i c

i ndi c a t or

, i nc l udi ng c ha r a c t e r i z a t i on o f t he e i ght c o m pone nt uni

- m e t r i c i ndi c a t or s i nc l ude d

w i t hi n t he c om bi ne d I B

I s c or e ( gui de l i ne #2)

. A l s o i nc l ude d w e r e de s c r i pt i ons of e c ol ogi c a l

l i nka ge s t hr ough w hi c h t he r e s t or a t i on o f f i s h pa s s a ge i nf l ue nc e s e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on ( gui de l i ne #5)

. E a c h c hoi c e que s t i on s pe c i f i e d t he s t a t us quo l e ve l f or t hi s i ndi c a t or ( 65% ) c a l c ul a t e d t o

r e f l e c t c ur r e nt w a t e r s he d c ondi t i ons

, a s w e l l a s t he m a xi m um pos s i bl e va l ue i n t he w a t e r s he d

( 100 % ) ( gui de l i ne #4 )

. F oc us gr oups a nd pr e t e s t s w e r e us e d t o e ns ur e s ha r e d a nd a c c ur a t e

i nt e r pr e t a t i on o f t hi s i n f or m a t i on a m ong pot e nt i a l r e s ponde nt s

, a nd t ha t r e s ponde nt s ’

i nt e r pr e t a t i ons of t hi s i ndi c a t or w e r e br oa dl y s i m i l a r t o t hos e o f pol i c y e xpe r t s a nd s c i e nt i s t s

( gui de l i ne #3)

. S u r ve y pr e t e s t s a nd ve rba l pr ot oc ol s ( S c hka de a nd P a yne 1994 ) w e r e a l s o us e d t o

e ns ur e c or r e s ponde nc e be t w e e n t he pr e s e nt e d I B I a nd t he a s s oc i a t e d w e l f a r e

- r e l e va nt pol i c y

out c om e ( i

. e

. , t he e f f

e c t of r e s t or a t i on on ove r a l l e c ol o gi c a l c ondi t i on)

, a nd t ha t t hi s out c om e w a s

not c onf us e d w i t h ot he r r e s t or a t i on out c om e s ( gui d e l i ne #6)

. P a r a l l e l gui de l i ne s w e r e a ppl i e d t o

a l l e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s us e d w i t hi n c hoi c e que s t i ons

.

Sur v e

y i m pl e m e nt at i on

F r om c hoi c e a t t r i but e s ( T a bl e 1) a n d l e ve l s ( T a bl e 2)

, a f r a c t i ona l f a c t or i a l e xpe r i m e nt a l de s i gn

w a s c r e a t e d us i ng a D

- e f f i c i e nc y c r i t e r i on f or m a i n e f f

e c t s a nd s e l e c t e d t w o

- w a y i nt e r a c t i ons

,

r e s ul t i ng i n 180 pr of i l e s opt i m a l l y bl oc ke d i nt o 60 bookl e t s ( L us k a nd N o r w ood 2005)

. F i gur e 1

i l l us t r a t e s a s a m pl e s ur ve y s c e na r i o a nd c hoi c e que s t i on. E a c h r e s ponde nt w a s pr ovi de d w i t h

t hr e e c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt que s t i ons a nd w a s i ns t r uc t e d t o c ons i de r e a c h a s a n i nde pe nde nt

, non

a ddi t i ve c hoi c e

. D e t a i l e d i ns t r uc t i ons w e r e a l s o pr ovi de d, i nc l udi ng r e m i n de r s t o c ons i de r budge t

c ons t r a i nt s a nd s t a t e m e nt s hi ghl i ght i ng s ur ve y c on s e que nt i a l i t y ( C a r s on a nd G r ove s 2007)

.

S ur ve ys w e r e i m pl e m e nt e d us i ng a dua l w a ve pho ne

- m a i l a ppr oa c h dur i ng J une

, J ul y a nd

A ugus t 2008. A n i ni t i a l r a ndom di gi t di a l ( R D D ) s a m pl e o f R hode I s l a nd hous e hol ds w a s

c ont a c t e d vi a t e l e phone a nd a s ke d t o pa r t i c i pa t e i n a s ur ve y a ddr e s s i ng R hode I s l a nd

“ e nvi r onm e nt a l i s s ue s a nd gove r nm e nt pr ogr a m s

. ” T hos e a gr e e i ng t o pa r t i c i pa t e w e r e s e nt t he

que s t i onna i r e vi a pos t a l m a i l

, w i t h r e pe a t e d f ol l ow

- up m a i l i ngs a s s ugge s t e d by D i l l m a n ( 2000)

t o i nc r e a s e r e s pons e r a t e s

. A t ot a l of 2

, 400 s ur ve ys w e r e m a i l e d t o R hode I s l a nd r e s i de nt s ; 1, 157

s ur ve ys w e r e r e t ur ne d ( 48

. 2 % r e s pons e r a t e )

. O f t h e t ot a l s ur ve ys m a i l e d, 600 a ddr e s s e d

r e s t or a t i on i n t he P a w t u xe t w a t e r s he d. x v i i T he f ol l ow i ng a na l ys i s i s ba s e d on t he 277 us a bl e

r e t ur ns f or t he P a w t uxe t que s t i onna i r e

, p r ovi di ng 8 03 c om pl e t e d r e s pons e s t o c hoi c e que s t i ons

.W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 12 E m p i r i c al m od e l

C hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt r e s e a r c h ha s i nc r e a s i ngl y a ppl i e d m i xe d l ogi t ( M L ) m ode l s of c hoi c e a m ong

di s c r e t e a l t e r na t i ve s

, r e pl a c i ng t r a di t i ona l c ondi t i o na l l ogi t m ode l s ( H e ns he r a nd G r e e ne 2003 )

. M L m ode l s a l l ow f o r c oe f f i c i e nt s on a t t r i but e s t o b e di s t r i b ut e d a c r os s s a m pl e d i ndi vi dua l s

a c c or di ng t o a s e t o f e s t i m a t e d pa r a m e t e r s a nd r e s e a r c he r

- i m pos e d r e s t r i c t i ons ( H u e t a l

. 2005)

. W hi l e s uc h m ode l s r e qui r e a gr e a t e r num be r of c h oi c e s r e ga r di ng m ode l s pe c i f i c a t i on, t he y ha ve

gr e a t e r f l e xi bi l i t y a nd c a n a ppr oxi m a t e a ny r a ndo m ut i l i t y m ode l ( H e ns he r a nd G r e e ne 2003)

.

T he r a ndom ut i l i t y m o de l i s e s t i m a t e d us i ng m a xi m um l i ke l i hood M L w i t h H a l t on dr a w s

i n t he l i ke l i hood s i m ul a t i on. C oe f f i c i e nt s on ac r e s

, P V A

, ac c e s s

, a nd I B I a r e s pe c i f i e d a s r a ndom

w i t h a nor m a l di s t r i but i on

. T he c oe f f i c i e nt on a nnu a l hous e hol d c os t ( c os t ) i s s pe c i f i e d a s

r a n dom w i t h a l ognor m a l di s t r i but i on

, e ns ur i ng a p os i t i ve m a r gi na l ut i l i t y of i nc om e

. S i gn

r e ve r s a l i s a ppl i e d t o t he c os t va r i a bl e p r i or t o e s t i m a t i on ( H e ns he r a nd G r e e ne 2003)

. C oe f f i c i e nt s on ot he r va r i a bl e s a r e s pe c i f i e d a s f i x e d. T he s e i nc l ude t he c oe f f i c i e nt s on t he

a l t e r na t i ve s pe c i f i c c ons t a nt ( ne i t he r )

, c at c h a nd w i l dl i f

e

. T he f i na l m ode l w a s c hos e n a f t e r t he

e s t i m a t i on of pr e l i m i na r y m ode l s w i t h va r yi ng s pe c i f i c a t i ons of f i xe d a nd r a ndom c oe f f i c i e nt s

. P r e l i m i na r y m ode l s s how a hi gh de g r e e of r obus t n e s s t o va r i a t i ons i n m ode l s pe c i f i c a t i on.

R e s u l t s

M ode l r e s ul t s a r e r e por t e d i n T a bl e 3. E s t i m a t e d c oe f f i c i e nt s a r e j oi nt l y s i gni f i c a nt a t p< 0. 0001 (

-

2 l og l i ke l i hood χ 2

= 537. 18; df

= 13)

, w i t h a ps e u do

- R 2 of 0. 31

. S e ve n out of e i ght m ode l

c oe f f i c i e nt s a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i gni f i c a nt a t p< 0

. 10; s i x of t he s e a r e s i gni f i c a nt a t p< 0. 01.

E s t i m a t e d s t a nda r d de vi a t i ons of a l l r a ndom pa r a m e t e r di s t r i but i ons a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i gni f i c a nt

,

s ugge s t i ng t ha t a M L s pe c i f i c a t i on i s w a r r a nt e d. R e s ul t s of l og

- l i ke l i hood t e s t s of c ondi t i ona l

( s uppr e s s e d f or c onc i s e ne s s ) ve r s us m i xe d l ogi t r e s ul t s yi e l d t he s a m e c onc l us i on a t p< 0. 0001 ( χ 2

= 118. 08; d f

= 5)

. S i gns o f e s t i m a t e d c oe f f i c i e nt s m a t c h pr i or e xpe c t a t i ons

.

E ve n be f or e w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s s uc h a s W T P a r e c a l c ul a t e d, t he m ode l s pe c i f i c a t i on

pr ovi de s a c onve ni e nt m e a ns t o i nt e r pr e t a nd c ont r a s t r e s ul t s

. A s de t a i l e d i n T a bl e 1, a l l m ode l

va r i a bl e s e xc e pt ac c e s s a nd c os t r e pr e s e nt p e r c e nt pr ogr e s s t ow a r ds t he uppe r r e f e r e nc e

c ondi t i on ( 100% )

. H e nc e

, m ode l c oe f f i c i e nt s m a y be di r e c t l y c om pa r e d a s t he r e l a t i ve w e i ght ( o r

m a r gi na l ut i l i t y ) gi ve n t o a one pe r c e nt a ge poi nt c ha nge i n e a c h a t t r i but e

. V i e w e d f r om t hi s

pe r s pe c t i ve

, m a r gi na l u t i l i t y i s g r e a t e s t ( pe r pe r c e nt a ge poi nt c ha nge ) f or i nc r e a s e s i n r e s t or e d

a c r e s ( ac r e s ) a nd c ha nge s i n ove r a l l e c ol ogi c a l c on di t i on i n t he r e s t or e d a r e a ( I B I )

. x v i i i C ha nge s

i n m a r gi na l u t i l i t y a s s oc i a t e d w i t h t he pr oba bi l i t y o f f i s h r un s ur vi va l ( P V A ) a nd i nc r e a s e s i n t he

num be r of f i s h

- de pe nde nt w i l dl i f e s pe c i e s ( w i l dl i f

e ) a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i gni f i c a nt a nd r oughl y ha l f

t he s i z e of t hos e a s s oc i a t e d w i t h ac r e s a nd I B I

. M a r gi na l ut i l i t y i s l ow e s t

— a nd not s t a t i s t i c a l l y

s i gni f i c a nt

— f or c ha nge s i n t he a bunda nc e of c a t c h a bl e f i s h ( c at c h )

.

T he s e r e s ul t s a r e m i r r or e d by W T P e s t i m a t e s de r i ve d f r om m ode l r e s ul t s

. B e c a us e t he

M L m ode l i nc l ude s r a ndom c oe f f i c i e nt s

, w e e s t i m a t e W T P us i ng t he w e l f a r e s i m ul a t i on

a

ppr oa c h of J ohns t on a nd D uke ( 2007; 2009 ) f ol l o w i ng t he f r a m e w or k of H e ns he r a nd G r e e ne

( 2003)

. T he pr oc e dur e be gi ns w i t h a pa r a m e t e r s i m ul a t i on f ol l ow i ng t he pa r a m e t r i c boot s t r a p of

K

r i ns ky a nd R obb ( 1986 )

, w i t h R

= 1000 dr a w s t a k e n f r om t he m e a n pa r a m e t e r ve c t or a ndW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 13 a s s oc i a t e d c ova r i a nc e m a t r i x. F or e a c h dr a w

, t he r e s ul t i ng pa r a m e t e r s a r e us e d t o c ha r a c t e r i z e

a s ym pt ot i c a l l y nor m a l e m pi r i c a l de ns i t i e s f or f i xe d a nd r a ndom c oe f f i c i e nt s

. F or e a c h o f t he s e R

dr a w s

, a c oe f f i c i e nt s i m ul a t i on i s t he n c onduc t e d f or e a c h r a ndom c oe f f i c i e nt

, w i t h S

= 1000

dr a w s t a ke n f r om s i m ul a t e d e m pi r i c a l de ns i t i e s

. x i x W e l f a r e m e a s ur e s a r e c a l c ul a t e d f or e a c h

dr a w

, r e s ul t i ng i n a c om bi ne d e m pi r i c a l di s t r i but i o n of R × S obs e r va t i ons f r om w hi c h s um m a r y

s t a t i s t i c s a r e de r i ve d. T he r e s ul t i ng e m pi r i c a l di s t r i but i ons a c c om m oda t e bot h t he s a m pl i ng

va r i a nc e of pa r a m e t e r e s t i m a t e s a nd t he e s t i m a t e d di s t r i but i on of r a ndom pa r a m e t e r s

.

U s i ng t hi s pr oc e dur e

, w e s i m ul a t e W T P a s s oc i a t e d w i t h e a c h r e s t or a t i on pol i c y a t t r i but e

. W hi l e t he l ognor m a l di s t r i but i on of t he pr og r a m c os t c oe f f i c i e nt i n t hi s c a s e e ns ur e s a ne ga t i ve

i m pa c t of c os t on ut i l i t y

, a nd he nc e i s t he m os t c o m m onl y c hos e n di s t r i but i on f or S P pa ym e nt

ve hi c l e pa r a m e t e r s

, i t c a n a l s o l e a d t o unr e a l i s t i c m e a n W T P e s t i m a t e s ove r s i m ul a t e d

di s t r i but i ons

, pa r t i c ul a r l y gi ve n t he l ong r i ght

- ha nd t a i l of t he d i s t r i but i on ( H e ns he r a nd G r e e ne 2003)

. A c c or di ngl y

, w e f ol l ow H u e t a l

. ( 2005) a nd J ohns t on a nd D uke ( 2007; 2009) a nd

s i m ul a t e w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s a s t he m e a n ove r t he pa r a m e t e r s i m ul a t i on o f m e di a n W T P c a l c ul a t e d

ove r t he c oe f f i c i e nt s i m ul a t i on ( i

. e

. , m e a n of m e di a n W T P )

.

R e s ul t i ng W T P di s t r i but i ons a r e s um m a r i z e d i n T a bl e 4, a l ong w i t h p

- va l ue s f or t he nul l

hypot he s i s of z e r o ( m e a n of m e di a n) W T P

. F or a l l a t t r i but e s e xc e pt ac c e s s

, r e s ul t s a r e

i nt e r pr e t e d a s W T P f o r a m a r gi na l

, one pe r c e nt a ge poi nt i nc r e a s e i n t he i ndi c a t or

, hol di ng a l l e l s e

c ons t a nt

. F or ac c e s s

, r e s ul t s i ndi c a t e W T P f or t he pr ovi s i on of pub l i c a c c e s s i n t he r e s t or e d a r e a

,

r e l a t i ve t o t he de f a

ul t o f no a c c e s s

. S t a t i s t i c a l s i gni f i c a nc e l e ve l s ( p

- va l ue s ) i n T a bl e 4 a r e

de t e r m i ne d t hr ough r e f e r e nc e t o t he pe r c e nt i l e s on t he e m pi r i c a l di s t r i bu t i ons ( P oe e t a l

. 2005)

.

W e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s m a y be i nt e r p r e t e d i n e i t he r r e l a t i ve ( i

. e

. , pe r pe r c e nt a ge poi nt i nc r e a s e

i n t he i ndi c a t or ) o r c a r di na l t e r m s

. F or e xa m pl e

, t h e r e por t e d w e l f a

r e r e s ul t s i n T a b l e 4 i m pl y t ha t

m e a n of m e di a n, pe r hous e hol d a nnua l W T P f o r a one pe r c e nt a ge poi nt i nc r e a s e i n r i ve r a c r e s

a c c e s s i bl e t o m i gr a t or y f i s h i s $0. 78

. G i ve n t ha t e a c h pe r c e nt a ge i nc r e a s e i n ac r e s w i t hi n t he

P a w t uxe t w a t e r s he d r e pr e s e nt s 43. 47 c a r di na l a c r e s r e s t or e d, x x m a r gi na l W T P pe r a c r e i s $0. 018

,

c e t e r is par i bu s

. I n c ont r a s t

, a nnua l W T P f or a one pe r c e nt a ge poi nt i nc r e a s e i n t he pr oba bi l i t y of

50

- ye a r f i s h r un s ur vi va l i s $0. 29

, w hi l e t ha t f or a one pe r c e nt a ge poi nt i nc r e a s e i n t he a qua t i c

e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on i nde x ( I B I ) i s $0. 79

. B a s e d on s i m ul a t e d e m pi r i c a l w e l f a r e di s t r i but i ons

( P oe e t a l

. 2005 )

, a l l W T P e s t i m a t e s e xc e pt t ha t on c at c h a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i gni f i c a nt

.

E s t i m a t e d w e l f a r e m e a s ur e s de m ons t r a t e t ha t r e s ponde nt s w e r e a bl e t o di s t i ngui s h

be t w e e n a nt i c i pa t e d w e l f a r e e f f

e c t s of di f f

e r e nt e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s

, w i t h W T P h i ghe r f or s om e

out c om e s ( e

. g.

, i nc r e a s e s i n e c os ys t e m c ondi t i on) t ha n f or ot he r s ( e

. g.

, i nc r e a s e s i n c a t c ha bl e f i s h

a

bunda nc e )

. M or e ove r

, r e s ul t s s ugge s t s ubs t a nt i a l W T P bot h f or r e s t o r a t i on out c om e s t ha t a r e

s t r a i ght f or w a r d a nd di r e c t ( e

. g.

, t he num be r of a c r e s a c c e s s i bl e t o m i gr a t or y f i s h)

, a s w e l l a s

m or e c om pl e x a nd i ndi r e c t ( e

. g.

, e f f

e c t s on e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on)

. M or e ove r

, w hi l e publ i c a c c e s s

( ac c e s s ) t o r e s t or e d a r e a s i s va l ue d h i ghl y

, t he r e l a t i ons hi p of e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s t o hum a n us e s

i s not s uf f i c i e nt t o gua r a nt e e non

- z e r o W T P

. C ha nge s i n c a t c ha bl e f i s h a bunda nc e ( c at c h )

, f o r

e xa m pl e

, a r e not a s s oc i a t e d w i t h s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i gni f i c a nt W T P

. T a ke n t oge t he r

, r e s ul t s s ugge s t

t ha t r e s ponde nt s a r e a bl e t o m a ke s ys t e m a t i c c hoi c e s ove r c om pl e x r e s t or a t i on pos s i bi l i t i e s

, a nd

t ha t t he de s i gn of r e s t or a t i on opt i ons c a n ha ve non

- t r i vi a l i m pa c t s on publ i c w e l f a r e

.W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 14 I m p l i c at i on s an d d i s c u s s i on

R e s ul t s pr e s e nt e d i n t hi s pa pe r s ugge s t t ha t ad hoc

, ove r s i m pl i f i e d r e pr e s e nt a t i on of e c ol ogi c a l

out c om e s i s not a c om pul s or y a s pe c t of s ur ve y

- ba s e d w e l f a r e e s t i m a t i on; S P c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt

s c e na r i os c a n us e i ndi c a t or s t ha t a r e m e a ni ngf ul f r om bot h e c ol ogi c a l a nd e c onom i c

pe r s pe c t i ve s

. M or e c om pl e t e

, s t r uc t ur e d s pe c i f i c a t i ons of e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s w i t hi n S P

que s t i onna i r e s

— w hi l e de m a ndi ng gr e a t e r a t t e nt i on t o s ur ve y de s i gn a nd t e s t i ng

— c a n pr ovi de

w e l f a r e r e s ul t s t ha t a r e bot h m o r e c om pr e he ns i ve f r om a ut i l i t y pe r s pe c t i ve a nd m or e e a s i l y

l i nke d t o m e a s ur a bl e pol i c y out c om e s

.

R e s ul t s f or t he c a s e s t udy di s c us s e d he r e

, t ha t of m i gr a t or y f i s h pa s s a ge r e s t or a t i on i n

R

hode I s l a nd w a t e r s he ds

, pr ovi de i ns i ght i nt o w a y s i n w hi c h r e s ponde nt s va l ue out c om e s of

a qua t i c e c os ys t e m r e s t or a t i on. S ur ve y r e s pons e s s u gge s t nua nc e d pr e f e r e nc e s f or a qua t i c

e c os ys t e m c ha nge

. W e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s r e ve a l di f f

e r e nc e s i n W T P a c r os s r e s t or a t i on a t t r i but e s

. I nt e r e s t i ngl y, s om e o f t he m or e di r e c t e f f

e c t s of f i s h pa s s a ge r e s t or a t i on, s uc h a s i nc r e a s e s i n t he

pr oba bi l i t y of f i s h r un s ur v i va l ( P V A )

, a r e a s s oc i a t e d w i t h m ode s t W T P c om pa r e d t o s om e

i ndi r e c t r e s t or a t i on e f f

e c t s

. T hi s s ugge s t s t ha t pa s t s ur ve ys i n w hi c h pol i c y e f f

e c t s ha ve be e n

c ha r a c t e r i z e d s ol e l y i n t e r m s o f t he di r e c t e f f

e c t s on i ndi vi dua l s pe c i e s m i ght ha ve o m i t t e d s om e

of t he p r i m a r y out c om e s t hr ough w hi c h r e s t or a t i on i nf l ue nc e s ut i l i t y

.

F or e xa m pl e

, S P s ur ve y s c e na r i os of t e n om i t e f f

e c t s on ove r a l l e c os ys t e m c ondi t i on, x x i a s

m e a s ur e d he r e us i ng a n i nde x o f bi ot i c i nt e gr i t y

. I n t he pr e s e nt s t udy, t hi s i ndi c a t or ha s a l a r ge r

a s s oc i a t e d m a r gi na l w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e t ha n a ny ot he r e c ol ogi c a l a t t r i bu t e ( T a bl e 4)

. T he s e r e s ul t s

s ugge s t t ha t r e s ponde nt s c a n ga i n s i gni f i c a nt ut i l i t y f r om c ha nge s i n ove r a l l e c os ys t e m c ondi t i on

,

e ve n a f t e r one hol ds c ons t a nt e f f

e c t s on ot he r pr i m a r y r e s t or a t i on ou t c om e s

. W e l f a r e e va l ua t i ons

s houl d t he r e f or e c ons i de r t he pos s i bi l i t y t ha t e c os ys t e m c ondi t i on c a n yi e l d s i gni f i c a nt non

m a r ke t va l ue s t ha t a r e di s t i nc t f r o m t he va l ue s of e c ol ogi c a l a t t r i but e s or out c om e s t ha t m i ght

i nf l ue nc e t ha t c ondi t i on ( s uc h a s s pe c i e s a bunda nc e )

. M ode l r e s ul t s a l s o i m pl y t ha t s om e pa s t S P

s ur ve ys i n t he l i t e r a t u r e m a y ha ve s uppr e s s e d e xa c t l y t he t ype of i nf or m a t i on t ha t i s m os t

r e l e va nt t o r e s ponde nt s w he n de t e r m i ni ng W T P f o r e c ol ogi c a l r e s t or a t i on

.

M ode l r e s ul t s a l s o r a i s e t he pr os pe c t

— f ol l ow i ng s i m i l a r f i nd i ngs of B ul t e e t a l

. ( 2005 )

a nd J ohns t on a nd D uke ( 2007)

— t ha t r e s ponde nt s m a y ha ve w e l l

- de f i ne d W T P f or a n a t t r i bu t e

r e f l e c t i ng t he s t a t us of a n e c ol ogi c a l pr oc e s s ( t he c ondi t i on of a f unc t i oni ng e c ol ogi c a l s ys t e m )

,

a

pa r t f r om t he out c om e s o f t ha t pr oc e s s

. S om e e c o nom i s t s m i ght a r gue t ha t t he c ondi t i on of a n

e c os ys t e m r e pr e s e nt s t he s t a t us of a n e c ol ogi c a l pr oc e s s t ha t s houl d onl y be va l ue d i n a s m uc h a s

i t c ont r i but e s t o ot he r va l ue d out put s

. O t he r s

, how e ve r

, m i ght i nt e r p r e t e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on a s a n

out put t ha t c a n be va l ue d a pa r t f r om ot he r e c os ys t e m s e r vi c e s or out put s

. W hi l e r e s ul t s he r e

c a nnot r e s ol ve t hi s de ba t e

, t he y do i ndi c a t e c l e a r l y t ha t r e s ponde nt s a r e w i l l i ng t o pa y f or

i m pr ove m e nt s i n e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on

, hol d i ng ot h e r out put s c ons t a nt

. F r om a n e m pi r i c a l

pe r s pe c t i ve

, r e s ponde nt s vi e w e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on a s di r e c t l y w e l f a r e r e l e va nt

.

R e s ul t s a l s o s ugge s t t he pot e nt i a l ha z a r ds i n l e s s c om pr e he ns i ve c ove r a ge of e c ol ogi c a l

out c om e s i n S P s c e na r i os

. F or e xa m pl e

, c ont i nge nt va l ua t i on a nd c hoi c e e xpe r i m e nt s ur ve ys

of

t e n e m pha s i z e di r e c t or i ndi r e c t e f f

e c t s on r e c r e a t i ona l f i s hi ng, s om e t i m e s w i t h r e l a t i ve l y

s pa r s e de s c r i pt i ons of ot he r e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s

. A s s oc i a t e d m ode l s f r e que nt l y e s t i m a t eW P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 15 s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i gni f i c a nt W T P f or i m pr ove m e nt s i n r e c r e a t i ona l f i s hi ng. I n c ont r a s t

, r e s ul t s he r e

s ugge s t t ha t i f one a c c ount s f o r ot he r e c ol ogi c a l i m pa c t s

, r e s ponde nt s m a y not a l w a ys e xpr e s s a

s i gni f i c a nt W T P f or r e c r e a t i ona l f i s he r y i m pr ove m e nt s ( i

. e

. , t he c oe f f i c i e nt on c at c h i s not

s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i gni f i c a nt )

. T hi s r a i s e s t he pos s i bi l i t y t ha t t he i nc or po r a t i on of r e c r e a t i ona l f i s he r y

e f

f

e c t s i n S P s c e na r i os t ha t om i t ot he r r e l a t e d e c os ys t e m e f f

e c t s m i ght c a us e r e s ponde nt s t o us e

f i s he r y i m pa c t s a s a pr oxy f or ot he r w e l f a r e

- r e l e va nt e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s

.

A t a m i ni m um

, r e s ul t s s ugge s t t ha t W T P f or a qua t i c e c os ys t e m r e s t or a t i on c a n r e f l e c t a

w i de r a nge of di r e c t a nd i ndi r e c t e f f

e c t s

. I n t he a bs e nc e of de t a i l s on s uc h e f f

e c t s a nd r e l a t e d

e c os ys t e m s e r vi c e s

, r e s ponde nt s m i g ht “ f i l l i n w ha t e ve r de t a i l s a r e m i s s i ng

... w i t h de f a

ul t

a s s um pt i ons ” ( C a r s on 1998, p. 23 )

. S om e o f t he s e de f a

ul t a s s um pt i ons m i ght i nvol ve e r r one ous

s pe c ul a t i ons r e ga r di ng e c ol ogi c a l pr oduc t i on f unc t i ons

, w i t h a c onc om i t a nt l i ke l i hood of bi a s i n

s ur ve y r e s pons e s a nd w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s

. A voi da nc e of s pe c ul a t i on r e qui r e s c a r e f ul s ur ve y a nd

m ode l de ve l opm e nt t o e ns ur e a c om pr e he ns i ve pe r s pe c t i ve on w e l f a r e

- r e l e va nt out c om e s

.

C on c l u s i on

S P va l ua t i on m e t hods m a y i n s om e c a s e s pr ovi de i ns uf f i c i e nt e c ol ogi c a l i n f o r m a t i on t o e na bl e

m e a ni ngf ul

, unbi a s e d W T P e s t i m a t i on. W hi l e t he r e a r e e xc e pt i ons ( e

. g

. , H or ne e t a l

. 2005)

, t he

l a r ge num be r o f va l ua t i on s ur ve ys i m pl e m e nt e d w i t h ad hoc t r e a t m e nt s of e c ol ogi c a l out c om e s

s ugge s t s t he ne e d f or m or e s t r uc t ur e d gui da nc e on t he us e of e c ol ogi c a l i n f or m a t i on w i t hi n non

m a r ke t va l ua t i on. T he r e s e a r c h pr e s e nt e d a bove i l l us t r a t e s a m e t hod t ha t a ddr e s s e s t he ne e d f or a

m or e s ys t e m a t i c t r e a t m e nt of e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t or s w i t hi n S P va l ua t i on a nd r e l a t e d s t r uc t ur a l

l i nka ge s be t w e e n e c ol ogi c a l a nd e c onom i c f r a m e w or ks

. D e s pi t e pr i o r e f f

o r t s t o m e r ge e c ol ogi c a l

a nd e c onom i c i nf or m a t i on f o r e c onom i c va l ua t i on

, S P va l ua t i on s t i l l c om m on l y r e t a i ns o f t e n ad

hoc t r e a t m e nt s of e c ol ogi c a l i nf or m a t i on

, w i t h l i t t l e r e f e r e nc e t o t he e xt e ns i ve w or k by e c ol ogi s t s

t o m ode l a nd m e a s ur e e c os ys t e m c ondi t i on a nd f u

nc t i on.

T he br oa de r pur pos e of t he r e s e a r c h pr e s e nt e d i n t hi s pa pe r i s t o be t t e r gr ound S P w e l f a r e

e va l ua t i on i n t he t ype s o f e c ol ogi c a l i ndi c a t o r s a nd m ode l s de ve l ope d w i t hi n t he e c ol ogi c a l

s c i e nc e s

, a s w e l l a s i n m e a s ur a bl e da t a a va i l a bl e t o pol i c ym a ke r s

. T hi s pa pe r f or m a l i z e s a n

a

ppr oa c h t o S P va l ua t i on c ha r a c t e r i z e d by a s e t o f gui de l i ne s a nd c r i t e r i a f or us e o f e c ol ogi c a l

i ndi c a t or s w i t hi n m ode l s a nd s ur ve ys

. T he s e gui de l i ne s pr om ot e a m o r e de f e ns i bl e s t r uc t ur e f or

e c ol ogi c a l va l ua t i on a nd a m o r e c om pr e he ns i ve r e pr e s e nt a t i on of e c ol ogi c a l c ha nge w i t hi n S P

s c e na r i os

, yi e l di ng m or e va l i d w e l f a r e e s t i m a t i on.

W e e m pha s i z e t ha t t hi s pa pe r a ddr e s s e s onl y a f e w of t he m a ny c ha l l e nge s i nvol ve d i n

t he c oor di na t i on o f e c onom i c s a nd e c ol ogy f or w e l f a r e e s t i m a t i on. R e por t e d f i ndi ngs a r e l i m i t e d

by t he pol i c y c a s e s t udy f r om w hi c h t he y a r e dr a w n, a nd a ddi t i ona l ve r i f i c a t i on i n ot he r

va l ua t i on c ont e xt s w i l l be r e qui r e d t o a s s e s s t he br oa de r a ppl i c a bi l i t y of t he p r opos e d m e t hods

. T he s e l i m i t a t i ons a s i de

, r e s ul t s pr e s e nt e d he r e s ug ge s t t he pot e nt i a l be ne f i t s o f c l os e r a nd m or e

m e a ni ngf ul c ol l a bor a t i on a m ong na t ur a l a nd s oc i a l s c i e nt i s t s

. P ot e nt i a l be ne f i t s f or e c onom i s t s

i nc l ude e nha nc e d va l i di t y a nd r e l e va nc e of w e l f a r e e s t i m a t e s

, i nc r e a s e d a bi l i t y t o l i nk non

m a r ke t va l ue s t o m e a s ur a bl e pol i c y out c om e s

, a nd i m pr ove d va l i di t y of r e s ul t s

.W P 2 0 0 9

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n ei t h er A l t ern at i v e s p eci fi c co n s t an t ( A SC) as s o ci at ed w i t h t h e s t at u s

q u o

, o r a ch o i c e o f n ei t h er p l an

. 0

. 3 3 3 3

(0

. 4 7 1 5 )

ca t ch T h e n u mb e r o f cat ch ab l e

- s i ze fi s h i n r es t o red a reas

, me as u red

as t h e n u mb er o f fi s h p er h o u r cau g h t b y s ci en t i fi c s a m p l i n g

cre w s

. P res en t ed as a p er cen t ag e o f t h e re fer en ce v al u e fo r t h e

w at ers h ed

, d efi n e d as t h e h i g h es t av er ag e l ev el s a mp l e d i n an y

Rh o d e Is l an d ri v er (fro m Rh o d e Is l an d D ep art m en t o f

E n v i ro n m en t al Man ag e men t s amp l i n g d at a )

. Ran g e 0

- 1 0 0

. 7 9

. 9 0 8 7

(7

. 5 8 0 7 )

wi l d l i f

e N u mb er o f fi s h

- eat i n g s p eci es t h at ar e co m mo n i n r es t o red

areas

, s u ch as eg re t s

, o s p r ey

, o t t ers

, eag l es

, t u rt l es an d mi n k

. P res en t ed as a p e rcen t ag e o f t h e r efe ren ce v al u e fo r t h e

w at ers h ed

, q u an t i fi ed fro m s u rv ey s o f reg i o n al ex p ert s i n

w i l d l i fe b i o l o g y

. Ran g e 0

- 1 0 0

. 6 5

. 0 1 2 5

(1 0

. 3 9 2 0 )

a M e a n s a n d s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n s i n c l u d e s t a t u s q u o o p t i o n o f n o r e s t o r a t i o n

.W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 21 T ab l e 2

. A t t r i b u t e L e ve l s i n C h oi c e E xp e r i m e n t D e s i gn

V ar i ab l e L e ve l s

ac r e s 1. 0% ( 0 a c r e s a c c e s s i bl e t o f i s h) a

2. 5% ( 225 a c r e s a c c e s s i bl e t o f i s h)

3. 10% ( 450 a c r e s a c c e s s i bl e t o f i s h)

4. 20% ( 900 a c r e s a c c e s s i bl e t o f i s h)

P V A 1. 0% ( p r oba bi l i t y o f 50 ye a r f i s h r un s ur vi va l ) a

2. 30% ( p r oba bi l i t y o f 50 ye a r f i s h r un s ur vi va l )

3. 50% ( p r oba bi l i t y o f 50 ye a r f i s h r un s ur vi va l )

4. 70% ( p r oba bi l i t y o f 50 ye a r f i s h r un s ur vi va l )

ac c e s s 1. P ubl i c C a nnot W a l k a nd F i s h i n A r e a a

2. P ubl i c C a n W a l k a nd F i s h i n A r e a

I

B

I 1. 65% ( a qua t i c e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on s c or e ) a

2. 70% ( a qua t i c e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on s c or e )

3. 75% ( a qua t i c e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on s c or e )

4. 80% ( a qua t i c e c ol ogi c a l c ondi t i on s c or e )

c os t 1. $0 ( c os t t o hous e hol d pe r ye a r ) a

2. $5 ( c os t t o hous e hol d pe r ye a r )

3. $10 ( c os t t o hous e hol d pe r ye a r )

4. $15 ( c os t t o hous e hol d pe r ye a r )

5. $20 ( c os t t o hous e hol d pe r ye a r )

6. $25 ( c os t t o hous e hol d pe r ye a r )

c at c h 1. 70% ( 102 f i s h/ hour s a m pl i ng a bunda nc e )

2. 80% ( 116 f i s h/ hour s a m pl i ng a bunda nc e ) a

3. 90% ( 130 f i s h/ hour s a m pl i ng a bunda nc e )

w i l dl i f

e 1. 55% ( 20 s pe c i e s c om m on) a

2. 60% ( 22 s pe c i e s c om m on)

3. 70% ( 25 s pe c i e s c om m on)

4. 80% ( 28 s pe c i e s c om m on)

a S t a t u s q u o v a l u e

.W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 22 T ab l e 3

. M i xe d L ogi t R e s u l t s : P aw t u xe t R e s t or a t i on C h oi c e E xp e r i m e n t

V ar i ab l e C oe f f i c i e n t S t d

. E r r or P r > |t |

R an d om P ar am e t e r s

ac r e s 0. 0520 0. 0150 0. 000 5

P V A 0. 0196 0. 0067 0. 0035

ac c e s s 1. 2435 0. 2354 0. 0001

I

B

I 0. 0525 0. 0219 0. 0 163

c os t ( l ognor m al )

- 2. 9738 0. 1724 0. 0001

F i xe d P ar am e t e r s

ne i t he r

- 1. 7598 0. 5038 0. 000 5

c at c h 0. 0027 0. 0 105 0. 7957

w i l dl i f

e 0. 0275 0. 0099 0. 00 57

S t an d ar d D e vi a t i on s of R an d o m P ar a m e t e r D i s t r i b u t i on s

s t d_ac r e s 0. 1089 0. 0257 0. 0001

s t d_P V A 0. 0452 0. 0083 0. 0 001

s t d_ac c e s s 1. 3564 0. 4572 0. 0 030

s t d_I BI 0. 1531 0. 0380 0. 0 0 01

s t d_c os t ( l ognor m al ) 0. 8351 0. 2347 0. 00 04

- 2 L og L i ke l i hood χ 2 537. 18 0. 0001

P s e udo

- R 2 0. 31

O bs e r va t i ons ( N ) 803W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 23 T ab l e 4

. M ar gi n al Wi l l i n gn e s s t o P ay E s t i m at e s ( I m p l i c i t P r i c e s ) : E m p i r i c al D i s t r i b u t i on s a

V ar i ab l e WT P S t an d ar d

D e vi at i on S k e w n e s s K u r t os i s P e r c e n t i l e s

( 1%, 99% ) P r > | t | b

ac r e s 0. 7841 0. 2658 0. 37 3. 17 ( 0. 23, 1. 44 ) < 0. 01

P V A 0. 2881 0. 1143 0. 39 3. 34 ( 0. 05, 0. 58 ) < 0. 01

ac c e s s 19. 9620 4. 5110 0. 53 3. 59 ( 10. 71, 33. 46 ) < 0. 01

I

B

I 0. 7916 0. 3749 0. 28 3. 52 (

- 0. 03

, 1

. 70) 0. 0 2

c at c h 0. 0497 0. 2109

- 0. 32 3. 61 (

- 0. 52

, 0

. 53) 0. 76

w i l dl i f

e 0. 5489 0. 2024 0. 20 3. 12 ( 0. 12, 1. 04 ) < 0. 01

a R e s u l t s r e f l e c t t h e m e a n o v e r t h e p a r a m e t e r s i m u l a t i o n o f m e d i a n W T P o v e r t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s i m u l a t i o n ( s e e t e x t )

. E s t i m a t e s a r e p e r h o u s e h o l d

, p e r y e a r

. F o r a l l v a r i a b l e s e x c e p t a c c e s s

, e s t i m a t e s r e p r e s e n t W T P f o r a o n e p e r c e n t a g e

p o i n t i n c r e a s e

.

b P

- v a l u e s a r e t w o

- t a i l e d

, f o r t h e n u l l h y p o t h e s i s o f z e r o m e a n o f m e d i a n W T P

, c a l c u l a t e d d i r e c t l y f r o m p e r c e n t i l e s

i n s i m u l a t e d e m p i r i c a l W T P d i s t r i b u t i o n s ( s e e t e x t )

.W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 24W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 25 F i gu r e 1. S am p l e C h oi c e E xp e r i m e n t Q u e s t i on

E n d n ot e s

i S i m i l a r l i m i t a t i ons a r e f ound i n ot he r a r e a s of e c o nom i c a na l ys i s ( S i m ps on 1998)

.

i i A f f

e c t e d s pe c i e s i nc l ude r i ve r he r r i ng ( bl ue ba c k h e r r i ng a nd a l e w i f e )

, s ha d a nd A m e r i c a n e e l

.

i i i F or e xa m pl e

, r e s ponde nt s m i ght s e l e c t a m ong di f f e r e nt opt i ons f o r c oa s t a l w e t l a nd r e s t or a t i on

,

e a c h w i t h di s t i nc t e f f

e c t s on w e t l a nd a t t r i but e s

, r e l a t e d e c os ys t e m s e r vi c e s a nd hous e hol d c os t s ( J ohns t on e t a l

. 2002 )

.

i v F or a n e xc e pt i on, s e e H ol m e s e t a l

. ( 2004)

.

v F or e xa m pl e

, P opu l a t i on V i a bi l i t y A na l ys i s ( P V A ) i s a n a ppr oa c h t ha t yi e l ds be nc hm a r ks on

t he s t a t us of i ndi vi dua l s pe c i e s i n t he s ys t e m

. P V A i s a pr oc e s s w he r e i n de m ogr a phi c f e a t ur e s ( a

bunda nc e

, popul a t i on s t r uc t u r e )

, ge ne t i c c ha r a c t e r i s t i c s

, a nd e nvi r onm e nt a l va r i a bi l i t y a r e

m ode l e d t o yi e l d pr e di c t i ons of t he p r oba bi l i t y t ha t a popul a t i on w i l l pe r s i s t f or a s pe c i f i e d

pe r i od of t i m e unde r di f f

e r e nt s c e na r i os

, bounde d by 0 a nd 1 ( B oyc e 1992)

. I ndi c e s of B i ot i c

I nt e gr i t y p r ovi de c om pa r a bl e be nc hm a r ks on a s ys t e m

- w i de l e ve l r e p r e s e nt i ng e c ol ogi c a l

c ondi t i on; t he y a r e c onve nt i ona l l y s c a l e d r e l a t i ve t o l e a s t

- i m pa c t e d, r e l a t i ve l y pr i s t i ne r e f e r e nc e

s i t e s ( J a c ks on e t a l

. 2000)

.

v i M a ny of t he s e f a l l unde r t he c a t e gor y o f “ s uppor t i ng s e r vi c e s ” i n t he t ypol ogy of e c os ys t e m

s e r vi c e s us e d i n t he M i l l e nni um E c os ys t e m A s s e s s m e nt ( 2005)

.

v i i A n a l t e r na t i ve a pp r oa c h w oul d be t o e duc a t e t he s ur ve y r e s ponde nt s a bout t he r e l e va nt

e c ol ogi c a l s c i e nc e

. H ow e ve r

, t he a bi l i t y t o do t hi s w i t hi n t he c onf i ne s o f a s ur ve y i s l i m i t e d

.

v i i i F or e xa m pl e

, i n t he a bs e nc e of o t he r de f i n i ng i n f o r m a t i on, W T P f or a t t a i nm e nt o f “ hi gh”

bi odi ve r s i t y c a nnot be l i nke d t o m e a s ur a bl e pol i c y out c om e s w i t hout a s s um pt i ons r e ga r di ng t he

c om bi na t i ons of obs e r va bl e c ondi t i ons

, or m e a s ur e m e nt e ndpo i nt s

, t ha t one m i ght a s s oc i a t e w i t h

t hi s ot he r w i s e a m bi guous de s c r i pt or

.

i x F or e xa m pl e

, s om e s pe c i e s of di a dr o m ous f i s h c o m pe t e w i t h j uve ni l e s of va l ue d r e c r e a t i ona l

s pe c i e s a nd a l s o a r e pr e y f or t he a dul t s t a ge s of t he s a m e s pe c i e s

. T he ba l a nc e of s uc h po s i t i ve

a nd ne ga t i ve e f f

e c t s de pe nd on ot he r f a c t o r s ( Y a ko e t a l

. 2000)

.

x T hi s l a c k o f f or m a l i z e d r e l a t i ons hi p m a y be r e a l i z e d a t e i t he r t he r e s e a r c he r l e ve l ( i

. e

. ,

r e s e a r c he r s ha ve not s pe c i f i e d a ny f o r m a l r e l a t i ons hi p) or a t t he r e s ponde nt l e ve l ( i

. e

. ,

r e s e a r c he r s m a y ha ve s pe c i f i e d a r e l a t i ons hi p, but t hi s i s unknow n or poor l y unde r s t ood by

r e s ponde nt s

.

x i W hi l e not e xpl o r e d he r e

, t he p r opos e d m e t hod a l s o ha s t he pot e nt i a l t o e xpa nd pos s i bi l i t i e s f or

be ne f i t t r a ns f e r

. C ons i de r

, f or e xa m pl e

, a ut i l i t y f u

n c t i on of t he f or

m U ( E ( X

, Y

)

)

, w he r e E i s a n

e c ol ogi c a l out c om e de t e r m i ne d by t w o ( o r m o r e ) r e l e va nt va r i a bl e s X a nd Y

. S uppos e t ha t i n a gi ve n c ont e xt a c ha nge i n X l e a ds t o a c ha nge i n E

, a nd t hi s c ha nge i n E i s va l ue d us i ng t he

i l l us t r a t e d m e t hods

. P r ovi d e d t he a f f

e c t e d popul a t i on i s s uf f i c i e nt l y s i m i l a r

, t hi s va l ue c oul d t he n

be t r a ns f e r r e d a nd us e d i n a c ont e xt w he r e E c ha ng e s a s a r e s ul t of a c ha nge i n Y r a t he r t ha n a

c ha nge i n X

. T h i s w oul d be va l i d pr ov i de d t ha t i nd i vi dua l s c a r e onl y a bout t he c ha nge i n E a nd

not i nde pe nde nt l y a bout t he s our c e of a ny c ha nge i n E

, a s pos i t e d i n a ut i l i t y f unc t i on of t hi s

f

or m

. W he t he r ut i l i t y, i n f a c t

, t a ke s t hi s f or m i s a n e m pi r i c a l que s t i on, w hi c h t he pr e s e nt s

m e t hods c a n he l p t o a ns w e r

.W P 2 0 0 9

- 0 6 26 x i i T hi s t ot a l i nc l ude s one f oc us g r oup c onduc t e d w i t h r e s ponde nt s f r om a n unde r gr a dua t e

e c onom i c s c our s e ( 11 pa r t i c i pa nt s ) ; a l l ot he r gr oup s i nc l ude d r e s ponde nt s r e c r ui t e d f r om t he

ge ne r a l publ i c

.

x i i i N o f o r m a l c ount w a s m a de of i ndi vi dua l i nt e r vi e w s us e d i n s ur ve y de s i gn, but w e

a

ppr oxi m a t e t ha t a m i ni m um of 60 i n

- pe r s on a nd t e l e phone i nt e r vi e w s w e r e c onduc t e d w i t h

e xpe r t a nd non

- e xpe r t r e s ponde nt s be t w e e n S e pt e m be r 2005 a nd J une 2008.

x i v F or a n i l l us t r a t i on of popul a t i on vi a bi l i t y a na l ys i s a ppl i e d t o di a dr om ous f i s h, s e e L e e a nd

R i e m a n ( 1997)

.

x v T hi s r e f l e c t s t he e f f

e c t of f i s h pa s s a ge on t he a bun da nc e of ot he r r e c r e a t i ona l l y ha r ve s t e d f i s h

s uc h a s l a r ge m out h ba s s ( Y a ko e t a l

. 2000)

.

x v i F or e xa m pl e

, r i ve r a c r e s a va i l a bl e t o f i s h m i gr a t i o ns ( ac r e s ) a r e pr e s e nt e d bot h a s a c a r di na l

num be r o f a c r e s a nd a s a pe r c e nt a ge r e l a t i ve t o hi s t or i c a l ha bi t a t a va i l a bl e i n t he w a t e r s he d.

x v i i O t he r ve r s i ons of t he s ur ve y i nc l ude d va r i a t i ons i n t he de f i ni t i on or s e t of i nc l ude d e c ol ogi c a l

i ndi c a t or s or a ddr e s s e d r e s t or a t i on i n ot he r R hode I s l a nd w a t e r s he ds

.

x v i i i T hi s e xc l ude s ac c e s s

, w hi c h i s m e a s ur e d a s a dum m y va r i a bl e a nd i s he nc e not c om pa r a bl e

i n t hi s m a nne r

.

x i x B e c a us e t he c oe f f i c i e nt on c os t i s s pe c i f i e d w i t h a l ognor m a l di s t r i but i on

, a n e xpone nt i a l

t r a ns f or m a t i on i s r e qui r e d s ubs e que nt t o t he c oe f f i c i e nt s i m ul a t i on t o ob t a i n a s i m ul a t e d

e m pi r i c a l de ns i t y f o r t he c oe f f i c i e nt i t s e l f ( H e ns he r a nd G r e e ne 2003 )

.

x x T he r e a r e 4, 347 t ot a l a c r e s of pot e nt i a l r i ve r ha bi t a t i n t he w a t e r s he d, of w hi c h z e r o a r e

c ur r e nt l y a c c e s s i bl e t o m i gr a t or y f i s h.

x x i F or a n e xc e pt i o n, s e e J a kus a nd S ha w ( 2003)

.