### APPENDIX 10A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIO FOR THE SHIPMENTS

ANALYSIS

TABLE O F CONTENTS

**10A.1 I**  **NTRODUCTION**

**................................................................................................ 10A­1** 

**10A.2 STANDARDS­CASE**  **MARKET­SHARE MATRICES** 

**..................................... 10A­1** 

LIST O F TABLES

**Table 1**  **0A.2.1 Standards­Case**  **Market­Share Matrix**  **for Residential**  **IRL Sockets**  **(10**

**Percent Lumen**  **Increase Sensitivity)** 

**........................................................ 10A­1** 

**9A­i**

### APPENDIX 10A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIO FOR THE SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

10A.1 I NTRODUCTION

**In t**  **his appendix,**  **the U.S.**  **Department of**  **Energy (DOE)**  **presents the**  **standards­case**

**market­share matrix**  **for the**  **10 percent**  **lumen increase**  **sensitivity scenario.**  **As discussed**  **in**

**Chapter 10,**  **in the**  **10 percent**  **lumen increase**  **scenario, DOE**  **assumes that**  **a portion**  **of residential** 

**IRL consumers**  **will buy**  **a more**  **efficacious lamp**  **at the**  **same or**  **higher wattage**  **as they**  **do in**  **the**

**base case.**  **This incorporation**  **of non­energy­saving**  **lamp designs**  **results in**  **an overall**  **higher**

**lumen output**  **per IRL**  **in the**  **residential sector.**  **To quantify**  **the percentage**  **of consumers**  **that**

**purchase same­wattage**  **lamp designs,**  **DOE assumes**  **that the**  **average initial**  **lumen output**  **of IRL** 

**in the**  **standards case**  **is 10**  **percent higher**  **than that**  **of the**  **base case.**  **Under this**  **assumption,**

**shipment forecasts**  **and cumulative**  **shipment impacts**  **in the**  **residential 10**  **percent lumen**  **increase**

**sensitivity are**  **very similar**  **to the**  **Roll­up, No**  **Product Substitution**  **scenario, which**  **is shown**  **in**

**chapter 10.**  **Appendix 5A,**  **6A, and**  **7A contain**  **additional engineering,**  **energy consumption,**  **and**

**price results**  **related to**  **these sensitivity**  **scenarios.**

10A.2 S TANDARDS­CASE MARKET­SHARE MATRICES

**DOE c**  **onstructed market­share**  **matrices to**  **characterize shipments**  **of lamps**  **in the** 

**standards case.**  **Table 10A.2.1**  **displays the**  **residential standards­case**  **market­share matrix**  **in the** 

**10 percent**  **lumen increase**  **sensitivity. As**  **seen in**  **the table**  **below, in**  **this sensitivity**  **scenario,**

**DOE assumes**  **that in**  **the standards**  **case a**  **portion of**  **IRL consumers**  **purchase same­wattage**  **or**

**higher­wattage lamp**  **designs.**

Table 1 0A.2.1 Standards­Case Market­Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

TSL Lamp D esign Instal led

L amp Price Stock in

2011* Stock in

2013** Stock in

2042

% % %**Base Case**  **90W, 14.6**  **lm/W, 2500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 4**  **1 4**  **1**

**7 5W,**  **1 4.0**  **lm/W, 2500**  **hrs, Halogen**  **5.13 3**  **2 3**  **2**

**5 0W,**  **1 2.6**  **lm/W, 3000**  **hrs, Halogen**  **4.53 2**  **7 2**  **7**

T otal 1 00 1 00**TSL 1**  **90W, 15.5lm/w,**  **2500hrs, Improved**  **Halogen 6.07**  **4 1**  **4 1** 

**7 5W,**  **1 4.7lm/w,**  **2500hrs, Improved**  **Halogen 6.07**  **3 2**  **3 2** 

**5 0W,**  **1 3.2lm/w,**  **3000hrs, Improved**  **Halogen 5.46**  **2 7**  **2 7** 

T otal 1 00 1 00**TSL 2**  **90W, 16.3lm/w,**  **6000hrs, Long**  **Life HIR**  **6.70 1**  **2 1**  **2**

**6 9W,**  **1 5.3lm/w,**  **6000hrs, Long**  **Life HIR**  **6.70 7**  **7**

**88W, 1**  **6.7lm/w, 6000hrs,**  **Long Life**  **HIR 6.09**  **2 2** 

**50W, 1**  **3.9lm/w, 6000hrs,**  **Long Life**  **HIR 6.52**  **8 8** 

**79W, 1**  **6.6lm/w, 3000hrs,**  **Improved Halogen**  **6.52 2**  **9 2**  **9**

**6 6W,**  **1 5.9lm/w,**  **3000hrs, Improved**  **Halogen 5.92**  **1 3**  **1 3** 

**7 9W,**  **1 6.6lm/w,**  **3000hrs, Improved**  **Halogen 7.69**  **9 9** 

**45W, 1**  **4lm/w, 3000hrs,**  **Improved Halogen**  **7.69 5**  **5**

**10A­1 50W,**  **14.4lm/w, 3000hrs,**  **Improved Halogen**  **6.33 1**  **4 1**  **4**

T otal 1 00 1 00**TSL 3**  **70W, 18lm/w,**  **3000hrs, HIR**  **6.70 3**  **1 3**  **1**

**1 00W,**  **2 0.3lm/w,**  **3000hrs, HIR**  **6.70 1**  **0 1**  **0**

**6 0W,**  **1 7.5lm/w,**  **3000hrs, HIR**  **6.09 2**  **5 2**  **5**

**8 0W,**  **1 8.8lm/w,**  **3000hrs, HIR**  **7.69 7**  **7**

**42W, 1**  **4.8lm/w, 3000hrs,**  **HIR 7.69**  **1 7**  **1 7** 

**5 0W,**  **1 6.5lm/w,**  **4000hrs, HIR**  **6.33 1**  **0 1**  **0**

T otal 1 00 1 00**TSL 4**  **66W, 19.8lm/w,**  **4000hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.02**  **3 4**  **3 4** 

**9 0W,**  **2 2.6lm/w,**  **4000hrs, Improved**  **HIR 8.02**  **7 7** 

**55W, 1**  **9.1lm/w, 4000hrs,**  **Improved HIR**  **7.41 2**  **9 2**  **9**

**9 0W,**  **2 2.6lm/w,**  **4000hrs, Improved**  **HIR 7.69**  **3 3** 

**40W, 1**  **7lm/w, 4000hrs,**  **Improved HIR**  **7.69 2**  **5 2**  **5**

**5 0W,**  **1 8lm/w,**  **3000hrs, Improved**  **HIR 6.33**  **2 2** 

Total 1 00 1 00**TSL 5**  **60W, 21lm/w,**  **4200hrs, Max**  **Tech HIR**  **8.59 3**  **3 3**  **3**

**9 0W,**  **2 4.6lm/w,**  **4200hrs, Max**  **Tech HIR**  **8.59 8**  **8**

**52W, 2**  **0.3lm/w, 4200hrs,**  **Max Tech**  **HIR 7.98**  **2 9**  **2 9** 

**8 3W,**  **2 4.5lm/w,**  **4200hrs, Max**  **Tech HIR**  **7.69 3**  **3**

**40W, 1**  **9.1lm/w, 4200hrs,**  **Max Tech**  **HIR 7.69**  **2 7**  **2 7** 

T otal 1 00 1 00

***** **Base­case in**  **put only.** 

****Standards­case input**  **only.**

**10A­2**