''oi%l.^inarS^ Computer Science

of

National

Standards

Bureau and Technology

NBS

T~JT I PUBLICATIONS

NBS Special Publication 500-79

An Assessment and

Forecast of ADP in the

Federal Government
NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS

The National Bureau of Standards' was established by an act of Congress on March 3, 1901. The Bureau's overall goal is to strengthen and advance the Nation's science and technology

and facilitate their effective application for public benefit. To this end, the Bureau conducts

research and provides: (1) a basis for the Nation's physical measurement system, (2) scientific and technological services for industry and government, (3) a technical basis for equity in trade, and (4) technical services to promote public safety. The Bureau's technical work is per- formed by the National Measuiement Laboratory, the National Engineering Laboratory, and

the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology.

THE NATIONAL MEASUREMENT LABORATORY provides the national system of

physical and chemical and materials measurement; coordinates the system with measurement

systems of other nations and furnishes essential services leading to accurate and uniform

physical and chemical measurement throughout the Nation's scientific community, industry,

and commerce; conducts materials research leading to improved methods of measurement,

standards, and data on the properties of materials needed by industry, commerce, educational

institutions, and Government; provides advisory and research services to other Government

agencies; develops, produces, and distributes Standard Reference Materials; and provides

calibration services. The Laboratory consists of the following centers:

Absolute Physical Quantities^ — Radiation Research — Thermodynamics and

Molecular Science — Analytical Chemistry — Materials Science. THE NATIONAL ENGINEERING LABORATORY provides technology and technical ser- vices to the public and private sectors to address national needs and to solve national problems; conducts research in engineering and applied science in support of these efforts; builds and maintains competence in the necessary disciplines required to carry out this research and technical service; develops engineering data and measurement capabilities;

provides engineering measurement traceability services; develops test methods and proposes

engineering standards and code changes; develops and proposes new engineering practices;

and develops and improves mechanisms to transfer results of its research to the ultimate user. The Laboratory consists of the following centers:

Applied Mathematics — Electronics and Electrical Engineering^ — Mechanical

Engineering and Process Technology^ — Building Technology — Fire Research —

Consumer Product Technology — Field Methods.

THE INSTITUTE FOR COMPUTER SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY conducts

research and provides scientific and technical services to aid Federal agencies in the selection, acquisition, application, and use of computer technology to improve effectiveness and

economy in Government operations in accordance with Public Law 89-306 (40 U.S.C. 759), relevant Executive Orders, and other directives; carries out this mission by managing the Federal Information Processing Standards Program, developing Federal ADP standards

guidelines, and managing Federal participation in ADP voluntary standardization activities; provides scientific and technological advisory services and assistance to Federal agencies; and

provides the technical foundation for computer-related policies of the Federal Government.

The Institute consists of the following centers:

Programming Science and Technology — Computer Systems Engineering.

'Headquarters and Laboratories at Gaithersburg, MD, unless otherwise noted; mailing address Washington, DC 20234. 'Some divisions within the center are located at Boulder, CO 80303.
WATIONAL BUHEAU

OF STANDAEUa Computer Science

OCT 2 1981 and Technology

ftot 0.0. -

0,0(00

u^n NBS Special Publication 500-79

Assessment and

ly^ Forecast of ADP in the

Federal Governnnent

Martha Mulford Gray

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology

National Bureau of Standards

Washington, DC 20234

based on the findings of the

IDC Consulting Group

International Data Corporation

Waltham, MAl 021,18

U.S; DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary

National Bureau of Standards

Ernest Ambler, Director

Issued August 1 981
Reports on Computer Science and Technology

The National Bureau of Standards has a special responsibility within the Federal

Government for computer science and technology activities. The programs of the

NBS Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology are designed to provide ADP

standards, guidelines, and technical advisory services to improve the effectiveness

of computer utilization in the Federal sector, and to perform appropriate research and

development efforts as foundation for such activities and programs. This publication

series will report these NBS efforts to the Federal computer community as well as to interested specialists in the academic and private sectors. Those wishing to receive

notices of publications in this series should complete and return the form at the end of

this publication.

National Bureau of Standards Special Publication 500-79

Nat. Bur. Stand. (U.S.), Spec. Publ. 500-79, 151 pages (Aug. 1981)

CODEN: XNBSAV

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 81-600094

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

WASHINGTON: 1981

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402

Price $5.50

(Add 25 percent for other than U.S. mailing)
FOREWORD

The Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology

(ICST) was established in the National Bureau of Standards

in 1966 pursuant to the authorities delegated to the

Secretary of Commerce by Public Law 89-306, enacted by the

Congress on October 30, 1965. This Act has as its objective

to "provide for the economic and efficient purchase, lease,

maintenance, operation, and utilization of automatic data

processing equipment by Federal departments and agencies."

Under authority delegated to the National Bureau of

Standards by the Secretary of Commerce, the Institute for

Computer Sciences and Technology provides scientific and

technical services to the central management agencies, i.e.,

the Office of Management and Budget and the General Services

Administration, to support the formulation of Federal ADP

policies. The Institute develops and recommends Federal

Information Processing Standards and participates in the

development of voluntary ADP standards.

ICST contracted with the International Data Corporation

(IDC) in FY 80 to acquire some of the data necessary to

support impact assessments and cost/benefit analyses of ADP

standards. These impact assessments and cost/benefit

analyses are critical to the planning and prioritizing of

Federal Information Processing Standards.

This report presents a summary of IDC's findings and

further analysis of these findings by ICST personnel. It

presents not only the current status of Federal ADP but also

projected ADP trends in the Federal Government for 1979 to

1985. The historical and future data relating to the

Federal Government were provided by International Data

Corporation and do not necessarily represent the views of

the Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology nor the

National Bureau of Standards.

The author acknowledges the professional expertise of

Miss Nancy Scull, Mr. Kenneth McPherson and Mr. Eric

Killorin. The author also wishes to acknowledge the

extensive assistance provided by ICST staff member Mr. E.

Edward Bortner III in the formulation and preparation of the

graphs in this report. The graphs were produced on the

Univac 1108 computer utilizing the DISSPLA graphics package.

The author also wishes to thank ICST staff members Mrs.

Jackie Jones and Mrs. Mary Ellen Crane for assisting in the

manuscript preparation.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Executive Summary vii

List of Figures xiii

Introduction xix

Definitions xxi

Section One - Federal Government installed base 1-1

estimates and forecasts of CPtf's, peripheral

equipment, storage media and word processors

Section Two - Programming Languages , Applications 2-1

and Operating Systems

Section Three - Software Spending Analysis 3-1

Section Four - System Distribution by Mode of 4-1

Operation

Section Five - Data Base Management Systems 5-1

Section Six - Contract 6-1

Section Seven - Software Development 7-1

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Section One

The number of computers in the Federal installed base

increased from 6000 in 1974 to 10,800 in 1979 and is

predicted to grow to over 29,000 by 1985. Federal general

purpose computers are expected to grow at only 1 percent per

year in number of units through 1985 while minicomputers

should show rapid growth, 21 percent per year in number of

units, through 1985. In 1974 minicomputers represented

about 48 percent of the Federal computers by number. They

represented 70 percent by 1979 and are expected to be about

80 percent of the installed computers by 1985. Over the

same period the dollar value of minicomputers grew from

$56.3 million in 1974 (2 percent of the inventory by dollar

value) to $191.5 million in 1979 (4 percent of the inventory

by dollar value) and is expected to reach $8,665.7 million

by 1985 (10 percent of the inventory by dollar value) . The

small general purpose computers, size classes 2, 3 and 4,

have decreased both in number and dollar value from 1974 to

1979 and are expected to continue decreasing, while the

larger general purpose computers, size classes 5, 6 and 7,

have increased both in number and in dollar value. These

large, general purpose computers are expected to increase at

a rate of 6.5 percent per year through 1985.

IDC expects both 1600 phase encoded and 6250 group

encoded tape drives to increase in the future, with 6250

drives increasing the most; low density, 800 NRZI tape

drives to decrease slightly by 1985; and floppy disk drives

to increase significantly over the next 5 years with over 2

million in use by 1985. Of the four types of floppy disk

drives, the 8-inch, 2-sided floppy disk drive is expected to

be the most popular by 1985. IDC predicts that rigid disks

will increase from L76,790 ($901.6 million) in 1979 to

215,110 ($1,097.1 million) in 1985.

General purpose terminals are expected to increase from

the installed base of 188,500 ($694.3 million) to 844,933

($2,879.2 million) in 1985, with CRT's increasing from about

58 percent of the 1979 total to about 72 percent in 1985.

Key-to-tape terminals and keypunches will decrease in

number, while the number of key-to-disk/disk^tte devices

will remain fairly constant. The Federal installed base of

teleprinters, intelligent terminals and graphic terminals
viii

will increase. Graphic terminals are predicted to increase

from 4,390 units ($49.3 million) in 1979 to 42,995 ($430

million) in 1985. Optical character recognition equipment

is also predicted to increase from a 1979 installed base of

995 ($45.8 million) to 5,511 ($253.7 million) in 1985.

The number of printers is expected to increase by

nearly 150,000 from the 1979 installed base of 54,319

($367.3 million) to 202,300 ($2,003.0 million) in 1985.

Both impact and non-impact printers are predicted to

increase during this time period.

The number of auxiliary storage devices is not

projected to increase substantially during the 5-year

forecast period; however, add-on core memory will increase

significantly from the 1979 base of 2,730 megabytes ($108.6

million) to 7,005 megabytes ($202.4 million) in 1985 with

much of that increase attributable to minicomputer add-on

core (1,200 megabytes in 1979 to 4,860 projected for 1985.)

In communications equipment, a shift from acoustic

couplers and low-speed modems to higher speed modems is

expected to occur during the forecast period. Acoustic

couplers and 0-600 bps modems represented 55 percent of the

number of modems in 1979 (25 percent of the dollar value)

and are predicted to represent 36 percent by 1985 (12

percent of the dollar value) . Acoustic couplers and 0-600

bps modems will still outnumber other types of modems in

1985. A shift in the dominant type of multiplexer is also

predicted, with frequency division multiplexers declining in

usage and low-end statistical multiplexers showing the

greatest increase. High-end statistical multiplexers should

increase significantly; while time division multiplexers

only slightly. The number of communications processors is

expected to increase from 663 ($19.6 million) in 1979 to

1,865 ($55.1 million) in 1985.

Although standalone word processors are currently the

dominant type of word processor installed and should also be

in 1985, high-end electronic typewriters (costing over

$4,000) and clustered word processors should become more

popular. In 1979 there were 37,400 ($332.2 million)

standalone word processors, representing 90 percent of the

total number of word processors. By 1985 it is predicted

that there will be 99,179 ($1,006.1 million) standalone

units, representing 57 percent of the total word processors.

High-end electronic typewriters are expected to have grown
from .2 percent of the installed word processors in 1979 to

16 percent of the installed base in 1985, and clustered word

processors from 10 percent to 27 percent during the same

time period.

In 1979, the dollar value for all storage media was

$111.2 million, divided among magnetic tape reels (57

percent) , floppy disks (17 percent) , rigid disk (17 percent)

and digital cassettes and cartridges (8 percent combined)

.

By 1985 the projected dollar value for all storage media is

$234.4 million, with the percentage of magnetic tape

declining to 47 percent, floppy disks declining to 13

percent, rigid disks increasing slightly to 18 percent and

digital cassettes and cartridges increasing to 13 percent

and 8 percent respectively.

Section Two

Use of assembly language programming has been

decreasing and the use of COBOL on general purpose computers

has been increasing. It was estimated that over 50 percent

of Federal installations were using COBOL as their principal

programming language in 1979. This number was predicted to

increase to over 60 percent by 1985. BASIC, assembly and

RPG were expected to decline in use as a principal languages

by 1985.

The primary uses of computers in the Federal Government

and the United States in general were estimated to be

accounting, inventory, personnel and other commercial

applications. This is not expected to change over the next

5 years.

Operating systems in the United States and the Federal

Government are expected to be enhanced to support a "user-friendly" environment, to improve system performance

and to provide additional security and integrity features.

Section Three

Software spending patterns were analyzed for the U.S.

general purpose computer population and, by extrapolation,

estimated for the Federal Government. IDC estimated that

the Federal Government spent approximately $559 million on

software, with $116.9 million (21 percent) on system
X

software, $66 million (12 percent) on utility software and

$376.2 million (67 percent) on application software. For

system software, 53 percent of these expenditures were for

internally developed software; for utility software, 50

percent were for internally developed software; and for

applications software, 83 percent were for internally

developed software. It appears that the degree of

customization for application software is much greater in

the Federal Government than in the United States as a whole.

IDC has insufficient information to estimate software

spending for minicomputers and other computers.

Section Four

Installation workload by mode of operation and by

application was indirectly estimated for the Federal

Government based on U.S. figures. Mode of operation

figures are given for remote batch, on-line and batch

operations. For minicomputers, "other" computers and size

class 2 general purpose computers, batch operations were

estimated as representing 55 percent of their workload. For

size classes 6 and 7 general purpose computers, the largest

size classes of general purpose computers, on-line

operations were estimated as representing 70 percent of

their workload. Commercial type applications, including

accounting, inventory, accounts payable, and personnel,

represented the largest workload. IDC estimates these

applications represent about 68 percent of the

installations^ workloads.

Section Five

There are an estimated 574 data base management systems

(DBMS) installed in the Federal Government, 491 of these on

general purpose systems and 83 on minicomputers. IDC

estimates that the installed value of the 491 DBMS in the

Federal Government is $30.2 million.

When the growth rate of DBMS in the United States was

studied from 1975 to 1985, the number of general purpose

computers with DBMS was predicted to increase from 4 percent

in 1975 to 28 percent in 1985. However, the growth rate in

the number of DBMS installed or the rate of DBMS

implementation slows over time. By 1984-1985 the growth

rate of the number of DBMS installed was predicted to be 7

percent.
xi

Section Six

Data processing related contract services in the

Federal Government amounted to an estimated $2.3 billion in

1979. These services are expected to grow at an annual

compound rate of 15 percent, which will amount to $5.2

billion in dollar value by 1985.

Approximately 21 percent of all contract services, or

$470 million, in 1979 were for systems analysis and

programming services. By 1985 it is estimated that these

services will represent $837 million or 16 percent of all

contract services.

Processing services amounted to $438 million in 1979,

or 19 percent of all contracted services. By 1985,

processing services should equal $796 million, having grown

approximately 11 percent annually. Of these processing

services, $98 million in 1979 and $190 million in 1985 were

for remote problem solving services.

Facilities management contracts amounted to

approximately $300 million or 13 percent of all contract

services in 1979. This figure is expected to grow 1.5

percent annually to $327 million by 1985. Facilities

maintenance contracts will drop to only 6 percent of all

contract services by 1985.

Network services include both voice and data

communications: These contracts represented $668 million in

1979, or 29 percent of all contract services, making this

the largest segment of all contract services. Network

services, overall, should grow by 20 percent annually, which

will amount to $1.9 billion in value by 1985.

Maintenance services represented $250 million in

contracts in 1979, or 11 percent of the total contract

services. These contracts are expected to grow at an annual

rate of 14 percent, amounting to $556 million in 1985.

Research and consulting services have the highest

projected growth rate of all the contract services. This

segment represented $146 million in 1979 (6 percent of total

contracts) and is predicted to grow at an annual rate of 29

percent to $687 million by 1985 (13 percent of total

contracts)

.
Section Seven

An estimate of the state of software and software

development in the Federal Government is presented. The

total dollar value of software in the 30 Federal sites

studied was $24.7 million. Of this total, $2.3 million was

for systems software, $20.8 million for applications

software and $1.6 million for utilities software. IDC

estimates that 60 percent of the total dollar value of the

software was for software that was developed in-house.

Applications software was predicted to show the largest

growth of the three types of software through 1985.

For the Federal sites that IDC studied, an average of

over 2000 computer programs was installed in each. The

average size of a computer program installed was estimated

to be 2,070 lines of code.

When IDC studied programming languages used for

in-house software development at these selected sites, COBOL

was mentioned the most frequently, followed by FORTRAN, PL/1

and BASIC, in that order.

Analysis by IDC of the average software program

life-cycle in these selected sites indicated that over 33

percent of the total time spent was for requirement study

and preliminary design, approximately 47 percent for

detailed design and coding and 20 percent for testing and

debugging. The average dollars spent for this program life

cycle was over $43,000.
xiii

LIST OF FIGURES

Section One

Page

Al Federal Installed Base - 1974-1985 (CPUs) 1-5

A2 General Purpose, Mini and Other CPUs 1-6

Installed Base and Forecast Numbers

(Federal Government) - 1974-1985

A3 Federal GP, Mini, & Other CPUs - 1974-1985 1-7

A4 General Purpose, Mini and Other CPUs 1-8

Installed Base and Forecast Dollar

Value (Federal Government) - 1974-1985

A5 Federal General Purpose CPUs (Numbers) - 1-9

1974-1985

A6 Federal General Purpose CPUs (Dollar 1-10

Value) - 1974-1985

A7 General Purpose CPUs by Size Class 1-11

Installed Base and Forecast Numbers

(Federal Government) - 1974-1985

A8 General Purpose CPUs by Size Class 1-12

Installed Base and Forecast Dollar Value

(Federal Government) - 1974-1985

A9 Federal Tape Market - 1979-1985 (Number of 1-16

Drives)

AlO Federal Tape Market - 1979-1985 (Dollar Value 1-17

of Drives)

All Magnetic Tape Drives 1-18

Installed Base and Forecast (Numbers

and Dollar Value) (Federal Government) - 1979-1985

A12 Federal Disk Market - 1979-1985 1-19

(Number of Drives)

A13 Federal Disk Market - 1979-1985 1-20

(Dollar Value of Drives)
xi V

A14 Disk Drives Installed Base and Forecast 1-21

(Numbers and Dollar Value) (Federal

Government) - 1979-1985

A15 Federal Tape and Disk Market - 1979-1985 1-22

(Number of Drives)

A16 Federal Tape and Disk Market - 1979-1985 1-23

(Dollar Value of Drives)

A17 Federal Terminal Market - 1979-1985 1-33

(Number of Terminals)

A18 Federal Terminal Market - 1979-1985 1-34

(Dollar Value of Terminals)

A19 Terminal Installed Base (Numbers and 1-35

Dollar Value) (Federal Government) - 1979

A20 Terminal Forecast of Installed Base 1-36

(Numbers and Dollar Value) (Federal

Government) - 1980-1985

A21 Printer Installed Base and Forecast 1-37

(Numbers and Dollar Value) (Federal

Government) - 1979-1985

A22 Auxiliary Storage Devices Installed Base 1-38

and Forecast (Numbers and Dollar Value)

(Federal Government) - 1979-1985

A23 Add-on Core Installed Base and Forecast 1-39

(Numbers and Dollar Value) (Federal

Government) - 1979-1985

A24 Federal Storage Media Market - 1979-1985 1-40

(Number of Media)

A25 Federal Storage Media Market - 1979-1985 1-41

(Dollar Value of Media)

A26 Storage Media Installed Base (Numbers 1-43

and Dollar Value) (Federal Government) - 1979

A27 Storage Media Forecast of Installed Base

(Numbers and Dollar Value) (Federal

Government) - 1980-1985

1-44
XV

A28 Federal Word Processing Equipment - 1979 1-47

(Number of Units)

A29 Federal Word Processing Equipment - 1985 1-48

(Number of Units)

A30 Word Processing Equipment 1-49

Installed Base and Forecast - (Numbers and

Dollar Value) (Federal Government) - 1979-1985

A31 Federal Modem Market - 1979-1985 1-53

(Number of Modems)

A32 Federal Modem Market - 1979-1985 1-54

(Dollar Value of Modems)

A33 Data Communication Equipment 1-55

Installed Base (Numbers and Dollar

Value) (Federal Government) - 1979

A34 Data Communication Equipment 1-56

Forecast of Installed Base (Numbers and

Dollar Value) (Federal Government) - 1980-1985

A35 Federal Multiplexer Market - 1979-1985 1-59

(Number of Multiplexers)

A36 Federal Multiplexer Market - 1979-1985 1-60

(Dollar Value of Multiplexers)

Section Two

Bl Programming Languages on the IDC Computer 2-2

Installation Data File

B2 Programming Languages Versus Manufacturer 2-4

(1975) (U.S. General Purpose Computers)

B3 Programming Languages Versus Manufacturer 2-5

(1977) (U.S. General Purpose Computers)

B4 Programming Languages Versus Manufacturer

(1979) (U.S. General Purpose Computers)

2-6
XV i

B5 Programming Languages at Federal Government 2-8

Installations

B6 Applications on the IDC Computer 2-10

Installation Data File

87 Applications on U.S. Computer Installations 2-11

B8 Principal Applications at Federal 2-11

Government Installations

Section Three

Cl General Purpose Computers Installed by 3-3

Size Class (as of Year-End 1979)

C2 Dollars Spent for Software 3-4

U.S. General Purpose Computers by Size

Class (as of Year-End 1979)

C3 Percentage of Dollars Spent for Software 3-6

U.S. General Purpose Computers by Size

Class

C4 Estimated Software Expenditures 3-7

Federal Government Computers by Size

Class

C5 Estimated Expenditure for System Software 3-8

Federal Government Computers by Size

Class

C6 Estimated Spending for Utility Software 3-9

Federal Government Computers by Size

Class

C7 Estimated Spending for Application Software 3-11

Federal Government Computers by Size

Class

Section Four

Dl Distribution of Systems with Terminal

Controllers - 1979 Federal Government

Installations

4-3
D2 Distribution of Systems with Remote Batch

Terminals - 1979 Federal Government

Installations

D3 Distribution of Systems by Workload - 1979 Federal Government Installations

D4 Application Distribution - 1979 Federal

Government Installations

D5 Estimated Workload Distribution - 1979

Federal Government Installations

Section Five

El U.S. and Federal Government CPU Installed

Base -- General Purpose and Minicomputers

(as of Year-End 1979)

E2 U.S. DBMS Use by Size Class

E3 Estimated DBMS Use by Size Class- Federal

Government Sites - December 1979

E4 Internally Developed DBMS by Size Class - United States

E5 Internally Developed DBMS

Federal Government Sites, by size class

E6 Internally Developed DBMS Installed Value

Size Class for U.S. and Federal Computer

E7 Growth of DBMS Implementations on

General Purpose Computers - 1975-1985 - United States

Section Six

Fl Estimated Dollar Value of ADP-Related

Contract Services in the Federal

Government by Type of Service

1979-1985

F2 Federal ADP-Related Contract Services

1979-1985
xvi i i

F3 Estimated Dollar Value of Remote Problem- 6-7

Solving Services in the Federal Government by Contractor - 1979

F4 Estimated Dollar Value of Facilities 6-10

Management Services in the Federal

Government by Contractor - 1979

F5 Estimated Dollar Value of Network Services 6-11

in the Federal Government - by Contractor

(Voice and Data) - 1979

Section Seven

Gl Average Installed Value of Software in 7-5

Selected Federal Government Sites

G2 Average Distribution of Origin of Installed 7-6

Software in Selected Federal Government

Sites

G3 Average Growth Trends for Installed Software 7-7

in Selected Federal Government Sites

G4 Average Growth Trends of Installed Value 7-8

for Origin of Installed Software in Selected

Federal Government Sites

G5 Average Number of Software Programs Installed 7-8

in Selected Federal Government Sites

G6 Average Distribution of Size of Installed 7-10

Software Programs Worldwide and in

Selected Federal Government Sites

G7 Average Time Spent on Software Programs in 7-12

Selected Federal Government Sites

G8 Typical Programming Languages Used for In- 7-13

House Software Development in Selected

Federal Government Sites

G9 Analysis of the Average Software Program 7-15

Life Cycle in Selected Federal

Government Sites
AN ASSESSMENT AND FORECAST OF ADP IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

Introduction

The Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology

(ICST) contracted with International Data Corporation (IDC)

in FY 80 to acquire some of the data necessary to support

impact assessments and cost/benefit analyses which are

critical to the planning and prioritizing of Federal

Information Processing Standards. This report presents a summary of IDC^s findings and further analysis by ICST

personnel. The seven sections are summarized below.

1. Section One presents numbers and dollar value

of ADP equipment installed in the Federal

Government and forecasts those through 1985.

Included are CPUs, magnetic tape drives, disk

drives, terminals, printers, storage media,

word processors and communication equipment.

Also in this section are ratios of peripheral

devices to mainframes for 1979 through 1985.

2. Section Two presents an analysis of typical

operating systems, programming language, and

application patterns based on observed

distributions in commercial installations.

3. Section Three presents estimates of the amount

spent for software in the general computer

population and, by extrapolation, at Federal

Government computer sites.

4. Section Four focuses on analysis of

installation workload by mode of operation and

by application. Mode of operation includes

on-line, batch and remote batch.

5. Section Five considers various aspects of the

implementation of data base management systems

(DBMS) used in Federal Government computer

installations

.
XX

6. Section Six deals with the scope of contract

services in the Federal Government and

includes a 5-year forecast for seven

categories of contract services.

7. Section Seven presents findings on the state

of software and software development in 30

Federal Government agencies.
DEFINITIONS

Computers ; For the purposes of this report, CPUs are

classified in three categories.

A. General purpose computers: General purpose computers

are typically byte or character-oriented CPUs programmable

in high-level languages. IDC categorizes these CPUs in six

size classes, numbered 2 through 1, defined according to

currently marketed IBM products and systems from other

manufacturers that compete directly with them.* (Size class

1 computers were moved to the small business computer

category in 1977, and size class 1 was eliminated.)

Size class 2 contains the smallest general

purpose computers. They are usually the

lowest cost machines and are considered entry

level equipment. They have relatively

limited I/O channels and limited software.

In general the main memory capacity is from

16-64K bytes. The average monthly rental of

these machines is approximately

$l,250-$2,500. Examples of computers in this

category are: the IBM System 3 Models 4, 6,

8, and 10; Honeywell H-61 Models 58 and 60;

Univac 9200; NCR Century 50 and 75; and

Singer 10.

Size class 3 computers are generally

considered small-scale computers, although

some models do approach what is considered to

be medium-scale. Some members of this size

class are the smallest model of a family of

larger computers or the largest member of a small business data processing computer

family. The main memory capacity is

- generally 32-128K bytes, although some size

class 3 computers have main memory as large

* Certain commercial products are identified in this section

in order to cite relevant examples. In no case does such

identification imply recommendation or endorsement by the

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology nor the

National Bureau of Standards.
as 256K bytes. The average monthly rental is

$2,500-$9,000. Examples of this size class

are-. NCR Century 100, 101 and 151;

Burroughs B-1800 and B-500; Univac 90 Models

25 and 30, and 9300; Honeywell H-Level 62,

and H-2020; and IBM 370/115, System 3 Models

12 and 15, and 360/20.

Size class 4 computers are considered

medium-scale computers. The average main

memory capacity is 64-512K bytes. The

average monthly rental for size class 4

computers is approximately $8 , 000-$20 , 000

Examples of computers in this category are:

IBM 370/125, 135, 138, and 360/30 and 40;

Honeywell H-2040, 2050 and 1200; Univac

90/60; Burroughs B-2500/2700/2800 and

B-3500/3700/3800; NCR Century 200, 201 and

250; CDC Cyber 71 and 171; DEC 10/40 and

50; and Xerox Sigma 5 and 6.

Size class 5 computers are also considered

medium-scale computers but usually have a much larger main memory capacity of 128K-2M

bytes, with some models having memory which

exceeds 4M bytes. The average monthly rental

of a size class 5 computer is $21,000-

$45,000. Representatives of this size class

are: IBM 370/145, 148 and 360/50; Honeywell

H-66/10, 17, 20, 27 and H3200; Univac 90/70,

9700, 1100/10 and 20 and Spectra 70/45 and

46; Burroughs B-4500 and 4800; NCR Century

300, 8580 and 8590; CDC Cyber 72, 3200,

3500, DEC 10/60 and 70; Itel AS/4; and XDS

Sigma 7.

Size class 6 computers are generally

considered large-scale computers. Some of

the models have main memories as large as 8M

bytes. The average monthly rental of these

computers is $45 , 000-$95 , 000 . Examples of

size class 6 computers include: IBM 3031 and

3032, 360/65, 370/155 and 158; CDC Cyber

172, 173, 174, 73, 6400 and 6500; Itel AS/5
and AS/6; DEC 10/80 and 90; IDS Sigma 9;

Burroughs 6500 and 6700; Univac 1100/40, 81

and 82, 1106 and Spectra 70/60, 6 and 7;

Honeywell H-66/40 and 60, 6050/60, 6070 and

6080; and Amdahl 470/5.

Size class 7 computers are the largest

computers in the general purpose category and

in the United States installed base. These

computers represent the largest models of a manufacturer's product line. The largest

members of this size class can have main

memory capacity of 16M bytes. The average

monthly rental of these machines is

approximately $100,000 - $200,000.

Representatives of this size class are: IBM

3033, 370/165 and 168; Univac 1100/83 and

84, 1108 and 1110; CDC Cyber 175, 176, 75

and 76, Star 100, 6600 and 7600; Amdahl

470/6 and 7; Cray lA; Burroughs B-7700 and

7800; Honeywell H-66/80 and 85, H68/80 and

G-6180.

B. Minicomputers: The classification of certain computers

as minicomputers is based on marketplace definitions as

perceived by IDC. Minis are general purpose in design but

are sold as tools, not just solutions; are available from

the makers as complete systems, not just boards; are

available to OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) and

usually are discounted in volume purchases, are purchased by

consumers rather than rented or leased and are part of a family that has at least one product in the $2 , 000-$25 , 000

price range and comes with at least 4K RAM (Random Access

Memory)

C. Other Computers: Other computers include small business

computers, military computers, desktop computers, and

others. These categories are combined for purposes of

analysis in this report.

Peripheral Equipment : Peripheral Equipment has been

categorized according to the following definitions:
XX iv

A. Magnetic Tape Equipment; Tape drives include 800 NRZI,

1600 phase encoded, and 6250 group encoded devices. Certain

tape equipment which is field upgradable has been assigned

to the lowest density grouping for this analysis.

B. Disk Drives: These peripherals are classified as floppy

disk drives or rigid disk drives, where floppy disk drives

include 8" and 5-1/4" single- and double-sided disk drives.

C. Terminals: Terminals are categorized as CRT,

teleprinter, intelligent, or remote batch.

D. Printers: Printers are defined as impact or non-impact

line or serial printers.

E. Storage Media: Media include magnetic tapes (800 NRZI,

1600 phase encoded, and 6250 group encoded) , rigid disks,

flexible disks, digital cassettes, and cartridges.

F. Word Processors: Word processors are defined to include

standalone, shared logic and hybrid systems, as well as

high-end electronic typewriters.

G. Communications Equipment: Communications equipment

includes modems, multiplexors, communications processors,

and lines specified by speed.
Section One

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INSTALLED BASE AND SYSTEM CONFIGURATION ESTIMATES*

Summary

Section One presents numbers and dollar values of ADP

equipment installed in the Federal Government including some

historical data and forecast data through 1985. Included in

this section are CPUs, magnetic tape drives, disk drives,

terminals, printers, storage media, word processors and

communication equipment.

Methodology

IDC utilized information from several major sources,

including detailed analysis of the IDC U.S. Computer

Installation Data File and the GSA Federal ADP Inventory

data files, a review of financial statements and related

information for major computer industry vendors, market

estimates provided by various computer and peripheral

vendors and searches of related information bases. A

majority of IDC's research effort was devoted to developing

a sound basis for estimation of the Federal Government

installed base of computer and related hardware, expressed

both in terms of number of units and dollar value of units.

For all categories of equipment other than CPU's, IDC

estimated the Federal Government installed base using three

different sources. This approach was utilized to provide

checks that ensure consistent estimates.

1. System configuration estimates were derived

from information in IDC's U.S. Computer

Installation Data File for each size class of

general purpose computers, for minicomputers,

and for "other" computers.

*Certain commercial products are identified in this section

in order to cite relevant examples. In no case does such

identification imply recommendation or endorsement by the

Institute for Computer Sciences and Technology nor the

National Bureau of Standards.
+-2

2. Manufacturers' financial data were evaluated

to estimate the portion of total revenue

derived from the Federal Government. The

estimates were translated into shipment and

installed base estimates for each relevant

peripheral category.

3. Estimates of installed base (by industry) were

used to provide a third perspective on Federal

Government installed base estimates. The

industry estimates were developed by IDC as

part of its ongoing research and based upon

vendor contacts.

Information from each of these three sources was evaluated

in the context of IDC's overall industry knowledge and

understanding of possible inaccuracies. These three

estimates were combined with IDC knowledge concerning

relationships between dollar value of shipments and

manufacturer revenues, to yield consistent estimates of the

dollar value of the Federal Government installed base of ADP

equipment and related items.

The projection or forecast of the installed base of

each of the computer groups and size classes is based on the

assumption that historical relationships between Federal

Government implementation and installations in the rest of

the United States will remain constant. Since Federal

Government procurement procedures may be altered to meet

changing policy requirements, this assumption may prove

invalid. However, prior and current relationships between

Federal and U.S. computer implementation were the best

available indications of the future growth of the Federal

Government installed base.

Federal Government CPUs

IDC's estimates of the historical, current and

projected installed base of each of the computer groups and

size classes are presented in Figures Al - A8. The

installed base is represented in number of units and dollar

value. A constant average dollar value per CPU has been

applied over the term of the forecast. Note that the

numbers of CPUs estimated by IDC are significantly less than

the numbers in the "Automatic Data Processing Equipment

Inventory in the United States Government" as of the end of

Fiscal Year 1979, produced by the General Services
1-3

Administration (GSA) , and "Computers in the Federal

Government: A Compilation of Statistics-1978 , " NBS Spec.

Pub. 500-46.

The differences in the numbers of Federal computers

occur for several reasons. There are numerous computers

that IDC does not count as part of the Federal Government

installed base that are included in the GSA inventory. IDC

identified 663 communication processors that were in the GSA

inventory but did not include them as part of the installed

base figures. These processors are listed under data

communications equipment and represent a dollar value of

$19.6 million in 1979. IDC also considers some products

listed as CPUs by GSA to be single-station processing

terminals or clustered processing terminals. In addition, a large number of entries on the GSA file were not recognized

by IDC as CPU model numbers. If the model numbers had

typographical errors or were otherwise bad entries they were

not counted. IDC did not attempt to ascertain what the

entries should have been.

Figure Al displays IDC's installed base numbers for

1974 to 1979 and the projected figures for 1980 to 1985.

Figure Al graphically shows the increase in the number of

minicomputers being the major influence in the overall

increase in the number of Federal computers. The total

general purpose, mini and other computer installed base and

projected base numbers are given in Figure A2.

Figure A3* shows the total dollar value of the Federal

computers and the total dollar value for the general

purpose, mini and other computers. This figure graphically

shows that the total dollar value of the Federal computers

is greatly influenced by the dollar value of the general

purpose computers. Thus the forecast for the number of

Federal computers is greatly influenced by the significant

growth in the number of minicomputers. The forecast of the

dollar value of Federal computers is greatly influenced by

the significant growth in the dollar value of the general

purpose computers. (Again, note that a constant dollar

value was applied in these forecast figures.) The actual

dollar values of the installed base and projected base

numbers are given in Figure A4.

*The notation "M = million", "K = thousand" has been adopted

in this report.
1-4

Figure A5 shows a line graph of the number of general

purpose CPUs in the Federal Government from 1974 projected

to 1985 by size class. This graph 'shows that the smaller

size classes, 2, 3 and 4, will decline in number and the

larger size classes, 5, 6 and 1, increase in number. Figure

A6 shows a line graph of the dollar value of these size

classes. This shows that the dollar value of size classes

2, 3, 4 and 5 will remain fairly constant while the value of

size classes 6 and 7 will increase significantly. Thus it

is the increase in these two size classes which

significantly increases the dollar value of the Federal

installed base. The actual numbers and dollar values for

these graphs are given in Figure A7 and A8.
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GENERAL PURPOSE CPUs by SIZE CLASS

INSTALLED BASE and FORECAST DOLLAR VALUE

(Federal Government) 1974 - 1985

Size Class 197^ 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

2 $27 . 1 $23 .5 $19 .2 $15 .2 $14 .8 $15.9

3 175 .5 165 .n 148 .9 140 . 1 133 .0 136.8

597 .0 610 .2 588 .7 591 .9 586 .3 582.6

5 373 .7 381 .7 369 .5 367 .4 390 .8 460.0

6 85^ . 1 1,153 .7 1,3811 .9 1,645 .2 1 ,557 .7 1 ,488.7

7 730 .4 1 ,068 .2 1 ,428 .7 1,721 .7 1 ,958 .0 2,173.7

Unknown 3 .7 5 .4 8 .9 14 .8 13 .4 11.8

TOTAL $2,761 .5 $3,408 . 1 $3,948 .8 $4,496 .3 $4,654 .0 $4,869.5

Size Class 19 6o 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985

2 $16 .9 $17 .4 $16.2 $15 .0 $13 .9 $12.9

3 141 .8 140 .0 136.3 132 .6 128 .7 124.8

4 585 .2 574 .6 567.6 561 • 3 554 .9 551.9

5 514 .8 549 .5 575.1 589 .9 604 .8 621.5

6 1,615 .1 1,752 .2 1 ,902.6 2,066 .6 2,250 .4 2,439.0

7 2,423 .6 2,706 .6 3,000.0 3,288 .6 3,635 .4 3,981.6

TOTAL $5,297 .4 $5,740 .3 $6, 197.8 $6,654 .0 $7, 188 . 1 $7,731.7

FIGURE AS
1-13

Estimates of Federal Government Peripheral Equipment

Peripheral installed base estimates for the Federal

Government were derived in a four step process.

Equipment was classified into categories as specified

in the following part of this section.

Typical system ratios were derived from IDC's Computer

Installation Data File. The ratio indicates the

average number of peripherals of a specific type

installed on a given class. More specifically.

SR = NPER /NSYS

i,j,k i,j,k j,k

where

:

SR = System Ratio for the ith peripheral

category on the jth manufacturer's

systems in the kth group or size

class

.

NPER

i ,j,k

The total number of peripherals in

category i (rigid disk, for example)

installed on the jth manufacturer's

systems in the kth group or size

class

.

NSYS

j ,k

The installed base of manufacturer j

in size class k.

System ratios were applied to Federal Government CPU

installed base estimates (aggregated by manufacturer
1-14

and group or size class) to provide estimates of the

Federal Government's installed base of specific

peripherals on systems from each manufacturer in each

size class. Summing these estimates over all size

classes and manufacturers yields estimates of the

Federal Government installed base.

Federal Government installed base estimates are

combined with non-Federal Government estimates to

generate a total installed base estimate. This total

estimate is then compared with IDC projections for

total installed base by equipment type. System ratios

are adjusted using additional data, including IDC

installed base estimates for each peripheral,

individual manufacturer's estimates of the Federal

Government installed base of specific peripheral

equipment categories, and vendor revenue estimates to

generate the final installed base estimate for each

peripheral type. This procedure minimizes potential

error due to biases in use of individual information

sources in compiling estimates.

IDC classified most — in terms of units installed

relevant peripheral models into categories. However, some

older peripheral models could not be specifically

categorized. In addition, some records in the IDC U.S.

Computer Installation Data File identify only the general

peripheral category — tape drive, disk drive, etc. — and

manufacturer name, but not specific model or functional

names. Peripherals which could not be placed in more

specific categories during the initial peripheral

identification analysis have been assigned to specific

categories on a proportional basis, modified by IDC

knowledge concerning product lines of individual

manufacturers. Thus, unknown disk drives — those which

could not be positively identified as rigid or floppy —

were assigned to rigid or floppy disk categories in the same

proportion that known disk drives fell into the two

categories. This procedure was modified when knowledge of a specific vendor's disk drive product line indicated that all

disks appropriately would be placed in only one category.

Certain peripheral types of equipment such as floppy

disks could not be projected accurately via the means listed

above. Since the configuration ratios derived above were

based solely upon the relationship to CPUs, the
1-15

proliferation of floppy disk drives on terminals or word

processing equipment would not appear. Methods such as the

evaluation of publicly available corporate information,

including operating characteristics and financial

information, and discussions with computer industry vendors

were utilized to complete the needed data.

Magnetic Tape Drives were divided into three categories

"BTHJ NRZI"; reiKJ pEase encoded, and 6250 group encoded.

Estimates include only those tape drives that are used on

computer systems; therefore, they exclude tape drives

installed on certain word processing systems. Some tape

drives are field-upgradable from one density to the next.

Since tape drives are identified by model numbers which are

not changed during the upgrading procedure, IDC could not

determine the actual density of upgraded drives. Drives

which could be field-upgraded have been assigned to the

lowest possible density grouping. Figure A9 graphically

presents IDC's estimate of the Federal Government installed

base and projected base of tape drives by recording density.

Figure AlO graphically presents the dollar value of this

installed base. In both the number and dollar value of the

6250 group, encoded tape drives exceed the 800 NRZI and the

1600 phase encoded tape drives. The tables of numbers for

these graphs are given in Figure All.

Disk Drives were classified as rigid or floppy, where floppy

disks include both 8" and 5 1/4" drives recording on one or both sides. IDC estimates by number and dollar value for

the disk drive market are presented in Figures A12, A13 and

A14. Rigid disk drives have been excluded from Figures A12

and A13 to highlight the trends of floppy disk drives.

Figure Al5 shows the total number of floppy disk, rigid

disk and magnetic tape drives from 1979 to 1985. With

almost 2 billion floppy disk drives projected by 1985, the

floppy disk drives significantly outnumber magnetic tape and

rigid disk drives. However when the dollar values are

plotted for this same time period (Figure A16) , the dollar

value of magnetic tape drives clearly exceeds the value of

floppy disk and rigid disk drives. Thus, although floppy

disks were projected to significantly increase in number by

1985, magnetic tape drives and rigid disk drives should only

show a slight increase. The total dollar value of the
1-16

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1-24

floppy disk drives still does not equal or exceed the value

of magnetic tape drives or rigid disk drives.

In the United States, rigid disk drives are predicted

to increase at a much greater rate than they are in the

Federal Government. IDC believes that the large increase in

U.S. rigid disks will be caused by the increase of these

rigid disks primarily on small business systems. At the

current time the Federal Government has very few small

business computers, less than 100 in 1979, according to NBS

calculations. Thus a large increase of rigid disks on these

small business systems does not significantly affect the

total number of Federal rigid disks.

Terminals When IDC first examined the data entry and

terminal markets, it was relatively easy to define specific

types of products. Product specifications were clear and

applications were well defined. As a result, IDC was able

to identify a number of different types of data entry and

terminal markets based on clear-cut physical and functional

differences. As these definitions were formulated, IDC kept

in mind the possibilities of technological and competitive

trends that could affect the foundations on which the

definitions were based. Consequently, the early definitions

were purposely flexible to allow for any evolutions that

might transpire over the coming years. Despite many

technological advances and changes in the very nature of the

different markets, the early definitions still are

well-suited for describing today's data entry and terminal

markets. As time has gone by, the terminology has taken on

increased meaning, but the previously determined

distinctions continue to provide a meaningful segmentation

of the terminal markets.

There are two major distinctions which have never

changed, and these pertain to the physical aspect of the

product in question. The first differentiation is made

between machine-oriented and operator-oriented products.

The second major distinction is the use of a CRT or a printer as output for a keyboard product. Further

segmentations within these dominant groupings are described

below and are generally based on the functional capabilities

of the device rather than the application of the terminal.

Machine-Oriented devices use some machine-readable
1-25

media as the primary input mode. These devices

generally do not employ any sort of keyboard for

actual data entry.

1. Remote Batch Terminals are primarily

card-oriented devices that use line

printers for output. Some include

typewriter-like units as well, while

others use tape drives instead of

card readers. Early remote batch

terminals were hardwired while later

models are processor based and thus

offer additional capabilities for

some programmability . In today's

market, there are some products that

do not utilize machine-readable

media for input that are often

referred to as "remote batch

terminals." For example, when a clustered processing terminal is

said to be used as a remote batch

terminal, what is meant is that the

processing terminal is performing

batch applications at a remote site,

not that it necessarily uses cards

for input. Over the years, the term

"remote batch" has been carried over

to other terminal products that are

now capable of performing "remote

batch" applications in addition to

other functions. Because IDC's

definitions are based on functions

rather than applications, the

definition of remote batch terminals

in this report includes only those

devices which use machine-readable

media for input.

2. Optical Character Recognition (OCR)

equipment includes general-purpose

data entry devices as well as page

and document readers capable of

machine recognition of either

machine or hand-printed characters.

Excluded from consideration are
1-26

journal tape, bar code, marksense,

MICR readers, and OCR wands used as

peripheral devices to POS terminals.

Operator-Or iented devices utilize a keyboard for

input and either a printer or a CRT for output.

There are several major types of operator-oriented

terminals, two of which are not user-programmable. The

first group represents data entry oriented devices that are

generally key-to-storage in nature and do not provide

on-line communications or processor capabilities. This

group includes the following submarkets:

1. Keypunches include 80-column unbuffered

units as well as 80- and 96-column

buffered versions.

2. Key-to-Tape devices typically include

all units consisting of a keyboard and

tape drive whether in a reel or cassette

configuration.

3. Key-to-Diskette devices include

primarily the IBM 3740 keystations

Models 1 and 3 and 3742. IBM-compatible

replacement products are also included.

While there may now be other products

from- a variety of vendors that use

diskettes as a means of storage, the

definition that is used here is very

narrow in that it excludes products that

have even limited processing

capabilities. For that reason, the

3741-3 and 3741-4 from IBM are not

included in this category but are found

in the Single-Station Processing

category.
1-27

4. Key-to-Disk systems have traditionally

been defined as keypunch and then

key-to-tape replacement products. As

such, the early models had limited

capabilities. However, as time has gone

by, some vendors have added

communications capabilities and even

some degree of processing power to these

systems. Despite the fact that the

traditional key-to-disk product has

evolved into a more sophisticated

device, the product as a "class" or type

of data entry product has maintained its

own data-entry-oriented identity.

Therefore, key-to-disk products remain

in this category rather than being

transferred to the clustered processing

category.

The second major group of terminals which are not user

programmable are of the interactive variety and are

classified further according to functional capabilities as

well as usage of printers or CRTs for output.

1. Conversational terminals are essentially

limited function, interactive devices

typically characterized by

keyboard/printer products from Teletype

Corporation and competitive replacement

products, as well as the CRT-based

devices from ADDS or Lear Siegler.

While it is possible that some of these

products have a small buffer, that

feature does not necessarily allow for

corrections to be made before the data

are transmitted. As such, these devices

are truly "conventional" in nature.

2. Editing Terminals definitely contain a buffer which allows data entered to be

checked for errors, then corrected by
1-28

inserting or deleting lines or

characters before data transmission

takes place. This category includes

keyboard/printers that have editing

capabilities as well as CRTs with such

error correction features.

Within the editing CRT type of interactive terminal,

IDC has identified four additional subgroupings

1. Editing CRTs — 3270-Type are primarily

IBM 3270s plus plug-compatible

replacements. In addition to the

plug-for-plug type of 3270, there are

also products which, because of their

programmable controller, can emulate the

3270 protocol. While there are many

vendors which offer 3270 protocol

through an optional software package,

the only emulating 3270-type terminals

included here are those which are sold

exclusively as IBM 3270 cluster

replacements. In these instances, the

programmable controller performs the

same function as an IBM 3271 or 3272

remote or local controller rather than

the function of a true processing

terminal. A true processing terminal is

capable of performing the 3270

applicaations as just one of its several

functions

2. Editing CRTs — IBM GSD-Type are

interactive terminals manufactured and

marketed by IBM's General Systems

Division. At present the GSD-Type

Editing CRTs include the models 525Xs

and 497XS. It is expected that as this

market develops, current 3270

plug-compatible suppliers will announce

plug- compatible 525Xs, for example, to

compete in that potentially lucrative

market.
1-29

3. Editing CRTs — HUB-Type, a newly

segmented subgrouping this year, are

interactive terminals manufactured by

the non-IBM mainframe suppliers

Honeywell, Univac, Burroughs — which

have the editing capabilities of

inserting and deleting lines and

characters prior to transmission. In

addition, this category includes

products manufactured by other suppliers

which are capable of emulating these HUB

terminals and hence can compete as a replacement device.

4. Editing CRTs — Other have the same

editing capabilities of the products

mentioned above but connect to

minicomputers, small business computers

and, in some cases, desktop computers.

As such, they are generally Teletype

compatible. Many of these devices are

manufactured by the minicomputer

suppliers themselves, although products

manufactured by independents which can

emulate these devices are also included

in this category.

The third major grouping of terminals includes those

that are not necessarily key-to-storage or interactive but

are processing terminals. This group is distinguished from

all other groups by the fact that the products are

user-programmable through the accessibility of resident

random access memory. In general these products are

processor-based and allow the user, through some high-level

language, the ability to program the system, enter and

process the data, and then generate reports from that data.

There are two major types of processing terminals.

1. Single-Station Processing Terminals are

standalone terminal systems where the

processor is incorporated into the
single station. While only one function

can be performed at any given time, due

to the single workstation, these

products are generally capable of

performing several different kinds of

functions. Within this category,

although not specifically identified at

this time, are different levels of

products depending on the degree of

programmability offered. Some

single-station processing terminals have

their own operating systems which allow

extensive programming capabilities.

Others operate under a firmware program

control prespecified by the vendor.

Clustered Processing Terminals are

devices which are configured in a clustered environment and employ a shared processor capable of processing

the data entered at the keystations and

then generating reports based on that

data. As with single-station processing

terminals, there are levels of

sophistication within this class. While

all clustered processing terminals are

generally multifunctional in nature,

only some of them can perform these

functions concurrently. In addition,

some of these products are primarily

data entry-oriented and do not offer

high-level languages or file management

software. The more sophisticated

clustered processing terminals are often

used for distributed processing

applications, while the less

sophisticated systems are better suited

for distributed data entry.
1-31

For this report IDC's terminal categories have been

condensed to generate three principal categories and nine

specific product groups.

General Purpose Terminals include four

subcategories

:

1. CRT Terminals, including editing and

conversational teleprinters

2. Teleprinters, including editing and

conversational teleprinters

3. Intelligent Terminals, including both single

station and clustered processing terminals

4. Remote Batch Terminals, which are

machine-oriented in IDC's terminology

Date Entry Terminals include each of the three

categories used in IDC's market forecasts:

1. Keypunches

2. Key-To-Tape

3. Key-To-Disk

Other terminals include two specific terminal

groups:

1. OCR terminals

2. Graphic terminals

The estimates of the number and dollar value of Federal
1-32

terminals from 1979 to 1985 are presented in Figure A17,

A18, A19 and A20. Terminal market estimates include

terminals used for ap^)lications such as communications and

access to computer services. These applications often

involve use of standalone terminals which are not directly

associated with specific computer systems. Therefore,

terminal market estimates will exceed levels which would be

indicated by straightforward extrapolation of the largest

product group of terminals currently in the CRT type. These

will still be the most popular in 1985. However,

teleprinters, intelligent, graphic and OCR terminals will

also show a significant increase. Key-To-Tape terminals

show the largest decline.

Printers are divided into four categories — line impact,

serial impact, line non-impact, and serial non-impact — for

this analysis. The installed base and forecast numbers and

dollar values for printers are given in Figure A21. The

numbers and dollar values are only for printers used on

general-purpose, mini and small business computers and

intelligent terminals. The non-impact figures do not

include low-end electrostatic/thermal printers. The dollar

amount in this forecast reflects a 5 percent declining

average purchase price for non-impact printers, per year,

through 1985. The largest growth area for printers is the

growth in the non-impact printers.

Mass Memory is defined to include both auxiliary storage and

add-on core memory. Mass memory installed base and market

forecasts are presented in Figures A22 and A23. Auxiliary

storage devices are not predicted to increase dramatically;

however, add-on core will increase in number and dollar

value because of the predicted large increase in

minicomputer add-on core. The predicted dollar value of

minicomputer add-on core in 1985 is almost as great as the

value of all add-on core in 1979.

Storage Media include 800 NRZI, 1600 phase encoded and 6250

group encoded magnetic tape reels, rigid disk platters, 8"

and 5-1/4" floppy disks (one and two side) , digital

cassettes and digital cartridges. The numbers and dollar

value of total reels of tape, diskettes, platters,

cartridges and cassettes are presented graphically in

Figures A24 and A25. The actual numbers for these graphs
1-33

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are given in Figures A26 and A27.

Word Processing. IDC defines a word processor as an electronic

device which provides for the storing, editing, and reproduction

of textual information. To qualify as a word processor, the

device must have automated typing functions and removable media.

The various word processing devices referred to in this report

are defined as follows.

Electronic Typewriters ; Have automated typing

functions and electromagnetic printheads which

make them more reliable than electric typewriters

because they have fewer moving parts. Electronic

typewriters that participate in the word

processing market fall into the latter of the

following two categories:

Low-End: Low-priced (less than $3,000)

with no removable media and an internal

memory of 1,000 characters or less.

They have limited text entry/editing

capability and are competitive with

electric typewriters.

High-End: Priced at $4,000 and a^ove

and with removable media and single-line

displays, they are competitive with the

low-end of the word processor market. A

communications option is available on

Qyx Levels 2-5.

Standalone Nondisplay : A processing terminal with

a keyboard and printer in a single independent

station. It is not dependent on the logic of

another system for its operation. Typing and

playback are performed on the same unit so the

keyboard cannot be used for input during printing.

These devices have no display mechanism such as a CRT. They may be able to communicate with other

systems but the majority cannot. The IBM Magnetic

Card/Selectr ic Typewriter (MT/ST) is an example of

the standalone nondisplay.
•1-43

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Standalone Single-Line Display : A similar

configuration to the nondisplay standalone with a single line (21-32) character) LED or gas plasma

display added to the unit.

Standalone Display: A keyboard and separate

pr inter and video screen (typically twenty-four

80-character lines) which allow for visual

verification of text and facilitates revision and

formatting. All editing is performed on the

screen so all additions or corrections can be made

before the text is printed in hard copy form.

Clustered System : A multi-terminal (display or

nondisplay) configuration attached to a central

processing unit (CPU), usually a minicomputer,

which handles communications and maintains a central document data base. Output peripherals

are also shared. The term "clustered system"

reflects a definitional change in this report.

Shared logic was formerly used to define

multi-terminal configurations. This change was

made to reflect the fact that the trend is away

from dumb terminals supported by a minicomputer in

the traditional shared logic arrangement. The

dominant trend today is toward

microprocessor-based intelligent terminals sharing

disks and some control functions with a CPU.

Lower per-station costs, larger storage, and more

sophisticated programming are advantages of

clustered systems.

Hybrid System: Either a standalone or clustered

system which combines word and data processing

capabilities in one system.

In the report, word processing system market

projections have been aggregated to present information on

three submarkets.

1. The high-end electronic typewriter market

includes products such as higher level Qyx

equipment

.
1-46

2. Standalone word processors include standalone

display, standalone line display, and

standalone non-display systems.

3. Clustered word processing systems include both

clustered and hybrid systems.

Word processing installed base estimates and forecasts

are presented in Figures A28, A29 and A30. The standalone

word processors, both by number and by dollar value, form

the largest segment of this word processing group.

Communications Equipment

Modems: Modems modulate and demodulate digital data for

transmission over analog facilities and convert that signal

back to digital at the receiving station for use by a terminal or computer.

The specific types of modems covered in this report are

acoustic couplers, those long-haul modems operating at

speeds up to 9,600 bits per second (bps.), and short-haul

modems - over 9,600 bps.

1. Acoustic Couplers. Acoustic couplers differ

from traditional modems in that they convert

digital signals into audible tones instead of

electrical impulses to facilitate transmission

over analog lines. These audible tones can be

picked up by an ordinary telephone handpiece

when placed into the acoustic coupler^s

special cradle. Acoustic couplers have the

advantage of making a terminal as portable as

the nearest telephone. They are also less

expensive than comparable modems. Their

disadvantages are that they are more

susceptible to interference such as noise and

crosstalk than a modem. This increases the

incidence of transmission error, which is why

traditional modems are suggested for use when

transmission is to be conducted for more than

a couple of hours a day or if the terminal can

do without portability.
rr.DERRL WORD PROCESSING tQUlPMENT: 1979

Equi pmo nt Number % of Total Number

High-End Electronic Typewriters 100 .24

Standalone Word Processors 37,400 89.63

Clustered Word Processors 4,225 10.13

Figure A28
fEOERRL WORD PROCESSING CDUIPMENT: J 985

Equi pment Number % of Total Numbe r High-End Electronic Typewriters 28,600 16.37

Standalone Word Processors 99,179 56.76

Clustered Word Processors 46,952 26.87

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IDC feels that although acoustic couplers

serve a specific function that set them apart

from traditional modems, they are sufficiently

similar in terms of technology to the

low-speed modems that they will be forecast as

a part of the market. There will always be a market for acoustic couplers but technological

changes will make the trade-off between them

and low-speed modems more difficult , possibly

resulting in some hybrid product.

2. 0-600 bit per second Modems. These modems are

usually referred to as low-speed modems. They

are used primarily for attachment to

interactive terminals such as teleprinters and

low-speed CRT terminals. Transmission at

these speeds is asynchronous. There are a large number of vendors who make such devices.

The price of a low-speed modem can range

anywhere from a low of $150 to as much as

$500. There has been little activity in this

area in terms of technological changes and

prices have been relatively stable. It should

be noted that the average cost in this market

includes acoustic couplers and circuit boards.

3. 1,200 bit per second Modems. Both 1,200 bps

and 2,400 bps modems are also known as

medium-speed modems. At 1,200 bps the modem

is operating asynchronously and does not

require the added sophistication of clocking,

which is necessary for the synchronous

transmission of higher-speed modems. Recent

technological developments have made available

a full- duplex 1,200 bps modem. Although more

expensive then traditional 1,200 bps modems,

the full-duplex feature allows simultaneous

bidirectional transmission on two rather than

four lines. This product should bolster the

growth in this type of modem over the next 5

years.

4. 2,400 bit per second Modems. These modems are

used to transmit input to and from a CRT

terminal or low-speed remote batch terminals.

Within certain speed ranges there are
1-51

trade-offs between the use of one speed or

another. In most cases users select the speed

requirements by evaluating which speed will

best utilize time on the network based on type

of terminal and amount of data to be

transmitted. The average unit price for a 2,400 bps modems in 1979 was estimated to be

$1,100. This lack of effect of time on the

price of the 2,400 area is due to the expected

release of full-duplex models, sometime in

1980 or 1981, which will add to the total

value.

5. 4,800 bit per second Modems. 4,800 bps and

9,600 bps modems are normally referred to as

high-speed modems. 4,800 bps modems require

that conditioned lines be used for

transmission. Therefore lines must be

"dedicated" or leased from the operating

company to ensure that they are suitable for

high-speed transmission. Conditioning is

required to clear the line of noise which

would severely effect the error rate of

transmitted information. Only recently has a low cost and reliable 4,800 bps modem been

available; this is due to improved

microprocessor technology.

6. 9,600 bit per second Modems. The 9,600 bps

market is very similar in all respects to the

4,800 bps market. These high-speed modems are

for use in machine-to-machine communications,

usually high-volume remote batch transmission

or computer-to-computer interaction.

7. Short-Haul Modems. As the name short-haul

suggests, these modems are distance

restricted. A short-haul modem is used for

operations over special cables (metallic or

coaxial), within a limited ' distance , at speeds

up to 50,000 bps, for a fraction of the cost

of comparably fast long-haul modems. The

distance limit in most cases is about 10 miles

but recently short-haul modems with

capabilities of up to 50 miles have been

introduced. These modems offer an alternative

to the long-haul modem where a remote site is
1-52

communicating with a host located across town

or on a different floor in a large office

building. The price of these modems ranges

from $200 to $2,000, with the average price

being about $700.

The installed base estimates and forecasts for modems are

given in Figures A31, A32, A33 and A34.

Multiplexers ; A multiplexer takes several lower speed lines

and combines them for transmission over one high-speed line.

The benefit to users is the cost savings incurred by using a single high-speed line for long distance transmission rather

than multiple long distance lines at lower speeds.

Multiplexers are categorized by the technique used for

combining multiple data streams onto one facility. There

are Frequency Division Multiplexers (FDM) and Time Division

Multiplexers (TDM). Another category of multiplexer, which

is actually a type of Time Division Multiplexer, is known as

the Statistical Multiplexer, or Stat Mux.

1. Frequency Division Multiplexers. FDMs operate

by sending multiple data streams at varying

frequencies. In order to transmit, the data

must first be modulated; then the frequencies

are combined and sent. At the receiving

station the FDM separates the different

frequencies, then demodulates them. Modems

are not required when an FDM is used. The

frequency division multiplexer is limited by

the transmission rates obtainable. Only

low-speed (usually a maximum of 2 lines at 600

bps each) transmission can be achieved. There

are still applications which require the use

of FDMs, but the growth rate has been

declining over the past few years, and it is

expected that more cost effective TDMs and

Stat Muxs will replace FDMs. It should be

noted that FDMS for strictly voice

transmission are not included. An average

unit price of $3,000 is used in estimating the

total dollar value installed through 1985.
1-53

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Time Division Multiplexers. The TDM combines

several data streams onto one line by

assigning bits of characters to some fixed

time-frame, transmitting these frames in

sequence at the receiving station. The

information is synchronized so that the data

can be recovered at the other end. The time

division multiplexer market will be limited by

the recent influx of low-cost statistical

multiplexers and the increased cost benefits

they provide. The price for a TDM varies

depending on the number of low-speed lines

that are required. IDC found that in a "typical" configuration a TDM costs

approximately $10,000. This figure is used

throughout the forecast.

Statistical Multiplexers, also known as

Intelligent Multiplexers, use the same

technique as the TDM for transmission, but

differ in that they are capable of

accomodating more low-speed ports than there

is space for on the high-speed line. This is

accomplished based on the probability that not

all low-speed ports (terminals) will be in use

at the same time. The statistical multiplexer

uses its intelligence to ignore inactive

terminals, thus freeing it to poll another

active terminal. This cuts substantially into

the amount of dead space being carried on the

lines, increasing network efficiency.

Problems occur with contention when a terminal

accessing the network finds the multiplexer is

fully loaded. Some statistical multiplexers

are capable of polling terminals on a priority

basis, but the real problem of contention must

be faced by the individuals managing the

network

.

New product announcements within the past 2

years have made it necessary to split the

statistical multiplexer market into two

categories.
1-58

1. High-End Statistical Multiplexer. These

multiplexers have been in existence for a few years. These units are normally

capable of handling up to 128 lower speed

lines, in some cases up to 248, and can

output on more than one line. Automatic

loop monitoring, multidropping , and

automatic operation are some of the

features available, which result in an

average unit price of $15,000.

2. Low-end Statistical Multiplexer. The

low-end differs from the high-end

primarily in the number of lines that can

be handled, usually between 4 and 16.

They do not have the sophistication in

terms of network diagnostics that those

machines in the high-end might have, but

the average price tag of $2,500 has made

this low- end unit very popular among

vendors as well as users.

The installed base estimates and forecasts for multiplexers

are given in Figures A33, A34, A35 and A36.

Communications Processor A communications processor is a computer which has been specifically programmed to perform

one or more of the following functions:

1. Front End Processing — The front end

processor interfaces between the mainframe

computer and the data communications network

for the purpose of off-loading the

communications responsibilities from the CPU.

Front ends can be either hardwired or

programmable

2. Message Switching — The message switcher is

sometimes referred to as a traffic director or

network node. It has the responsibility of

receiving messages and directing them to their

proper destination. Most message switchers

use auxiliary storage for store and forward

functions. The message switcher is usually a minicomputer and in some applications is used

as a concentrator as well.

1-60

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1-61

3. Remote Concentrator — The remote concentrator

combines low-speed data streams for

transmission over the fewer high-speed lines.

Usually minicomputers are used here^ and some

more powerful models are capable of performing

message switching functions.

The overall average unit price for communications

processors has been estimated at approximately $100,000.

The installed base estimates and figures for communications

processors are given in Figures A33 and A34.

2-1

Section Two

PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES, APPLICATIONS, AND OPERATING SYSTEMS

Introduction

This section of the report

typical operating systems,

application patterns, based on

commercial installations.

presents IDC's analysis of

programming languages, and

observed distributions in

IDC regularly collects information on principal

programming languages for each general purpose system listed

in the Computer Installation Data File. The report

represents analyses of programming languages from three

perspectives.

1. System Information — The principal programming language

was analyzed for each CPU on the IDC Computer

Installation Data File.

2. Installed Base Analysis — Historical trends in

programming language implementation provided a basis for

evaluation of probable trends in implementation through

1985.

3. Analysis of Interrelationships — Analysis of individual

system installations on the IDC Computer Installation

Data File provided insight into relationships between

programming languages, operating systems, and

applications

.

Programming Languages

Figure Bl lists the programming languages currently

included in the IDC Computer Installation File. The entries

in this listing are not consistent for a number of reasons.

Some reporting installations were more specific than others

(FORTRAN IV VS. FORTRAN) . Since only a primary language

was required for an installation, some installations

reported two equally used languages as one primary language.

Thus several entries are combinations of languages. IDC did

not alter these entries for this listing.
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Figures B2, B3, and B4 present the distribution of

programming language implementation for major mainframe

vendors in the United States for 1975, 1977, and 1979,

respectively.* When viewed over time, these tables

illustrate several major trends in programming language

implementation.

1. Users were moving away from assembly language

programming between 1977 and 1979, after significant

increases in assembly language programming between 1975

and 1977.

2. Users were increasingly turning to COBOL as their

principal programming language.

These two trends are indicative of increasing user

willingness to accept increased system overhead costs in

return for decreased costs in acquiring and training

programming staff. IDC expects this trend to continue

through 1985, manifested in at least two forms.

1. COBOL will continue to grow in importance, although at a lesser rate than experienced during the past 5 years.

In part, this continued growth reflects the reality that

the largest stock of programmers are familiar with

COBOL, and that a major portion of current applications

software is written in COBOL. Even if more

sophisticated and user-friendly software is developed

during the next 5 years, vendors will face a difficult

marketing task in educating users, programmers, and

systems managers to new technologies. However, the

growth of COBOL implementation will moderate as

implementation levels begin to encroach on areas where

more specialized languages maintain their comparative

advantage.

2. IDC expects the introduction of various programming

languages — or alternatives to programming languages —

which approach true English language programming for

some applications. However, difficulties in developing

* Certain computer manufacturers were identified in this

section by IDC. In no case does such identification imply

recommendation or endorsement by the Institute for Computer

Sciences and Technology nor the National Bureau of

Standards

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such languages suggest that full-scale implementation

will not begin until the latter portions of the forecast

period, and that implementation levels will not be

significant enough to alter projections based on

historical patterns.

Figures B2, B3, and B4 provide the basic information

for analysis of Federal Government programming language

installations. The tables present estimates of the use of

various programming languages on computers manufactured by

each major general purpose computer manufacturer. These

estimates are direct tabulations of information contained on

the IDC Computer Installation Data File for 1975, 1977, and

1979, respectively.

Figure B5 presents IDC's estimates of the current

distribution of principal programming languages in the

Federal Government and of distributions which are reasonably

expected by 1985. IDC projected these estimates using a two-step procedure.

1. The use ratios presented in Figures B2, B3, and B4 were

weighted to reflect the Federal Government installed

base of each manufacturer and combined to generate the

1979 aggregate usage estimate in Figure B5.

2. Trends in programming language usage were calculated for

each manufacturer and size class of computer. These

trends were based on historical patterns of change in

the level of usage and modified as necessary to reflect

current IDC thought on long-term forces affecting

programming language use.

As noted earlier, these projections assume that

programming language technical development will have minimal

impact on installations during the prediction period.
PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE AT FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INSTALLATIONS

Language 1979 1985

Basic 0.4% 0.2%

Assembly 9.2% 11.0%

COBOL 57.5% 62.1%

Fortran 8.4% 7.1%

RPG 11.9% 6.0%

PLl 2.2% 3.1%

Other 10.4% 10.5%

Total 100.0% 100.0%

FIGURE B5
s

2-9

Applications

IDC^s Computer Installation Data File contains

information on the two principal applications for each

system on the file. Figure B6 presents the current list of

applications included in the file.

In order to facilitate analysis of application

patterns, IDC has combined applications into four groups.

1. Business or commercial applications include typical

accounting, inventory, accounts payable, and personnel

applications.

2. Business or scientific problem solving applications

include forecasting, planning, statistical analysis, and

cost estimating.

3. Non-Commercial Applications include industrial

automation, graphics, and communications control.

4. Office applications include word processing and related

functions

.

Figure B7 presents the distribution of applications in

the IDC computer Installation Data File for 1975, 1977, and

1979, Figure B8 presents IDC^s estimate and forecast of

Federal Government applications.
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2-11

APPLICATIONS ON U. S. COMPUTER INSTALLATIONS

Application 1975 197 7 1979

Commercial 67. 5% 64. 2% 64. 6%

Non-Commerc ial 18. 8% 20. 9% 21. 0%

Problem Solving 12. 8% 14. 0% 13. 3%

Office 0. 9% 0. 9% 1. 1%

Total 100„ 0% 100. 0% 100. 0%

FIGURE B7

PRINCIPAL APPLICATIONS AT FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INSTALLATIONS

Application 1979 1985

Commercial 64.6% 63.0%

Non-Commercial 21.0% 22.0%

Problem Solving 13.3% 13.0%

Office 1.1% 2.0%

Total 100.0% 100.0%

FIGURE B8
2-12

Operating Systems

IDC was not able to estimate the operating systems in

use in the Federal Government nor estimate future

utilization. There are currently shown 160 different

operating systems on the IDC Data File. Since operating

system offerings are subject to manufacturer discretion, IDC

does not forecast future operating system implementation

levels. However, IDC does expect several trends in

operating system implementation to hold true for both the

United States and Federal Government.

1. Manufacturers will be placing major emphasis on

development of user-friendly operating systems.

Increasing CPU memory will permit increased use of

memory for overhead, permitting operating system

designers to build more features into the operating

system. User-friendly systems, in turn, will permit

greater end-user flexibility by reducing the importance

of job control language in program development.

2. As memory sizes increase, more operating system code

will tend to reside in main memory, rather than on disk,

resulting in enhanced system performance.

3. Operating systems in general will feature significantly

enhanced security and integrity features, responding to

user concerns related to increased system access.

4. Data base and data communications products will be

buried in the operating system, closely linking

operating systems and utility software.

5. Manufacturers will include more microcode prerequisites

in operating systems, leading to stronger ties between

vendor operating systems and vendor software.

6. Operating systems will be designed to support multiple

CPU environments, reflecting general trends in data

processing configurations.

7. Vendors will place greater emphasis on developing

procedures to reduce errors in new operating systems.

They will also move toward full charges for operating

systems, and toward remote operating system support.
2-13

These trends represent natural extensions of existing

operating system development. However, the actual design of

operating systems will be determined by individual vendors.

3-1

Section Three

SOFTWARE SPENDING

Introduction

This section presents IDC^s estimates of the amounts

spent for software in the general computer population, and,

by extrapolation, at Federal Government computer sites.

Regarding the size of programs, dollar value of software

installed, and time and costs involved in software

development, IDC conducted a thorough search of all

available materials in order to determine these data;

however, despite IDC's best efforts in this area, the

information available was insufficient to make possible a meaningful analysis. The present section is restricted to

an analysis of the dollar amounts spent for software for the

year ending December 31, 1979, as well as a breakdown of

that spending according to external and internal software

expenditures.

Further, data regarding minicomputers and small

business computers (Class B and C computers) were

insufficient to permit an analysis of software spending in

these computer size classes. The present section is

restricted to software spending among Class A (mainframe)

computers only.

Methodology

The dollar figures for software spending in the present

section were derived from IDC's report. Software Spending

Analysis (1980) . The proportion of general purpose

computers installed at Federal Government sites was derived

from analysis of IDC^s Computer Installation Data File and

the GSA inventory. The proportion of Federal Government

CPUs to the total CPU population (which was taken from the

1980 General Purpose Computer Census, as published in IDC's

publication EDP Industry Report ) was then applied to obtain

estimates oi tTTe proportion of dollars spent for software

within the Federal Government. The total value of software

spending was then broken down into spending according to the

three major software groups — system, utility, and

application software, with figures in each category for both

the general computer population and for those systems

located at Federal Government sites.
3-2

CPUs Installed

Figure CI provides a breakdown of Class A (general

purpose) computers, according to size class, as of yearend

1979. The number of Federal Government computers is also

provided, along with the percentage of the total computer

population represented by Government systems.

Of particular note is the unusually high incidence of

Government computers in size class 7, as compared to the

equivalent U.S. population: 15 percent of the U.S. size

class 7 CPUs are installed in the Federal Government which

is the largest "percent of U.S." amount versus the other

size classes. Not surprisingly, these computer sites tend

to have the largest software budgets.

The cumulative value of dollars spent for software is

presented in Figure C2. These figures (in millions of

dollars) represent the amount of money spent for software in

the general computer population. The figures for Federal

Government installations are presented in Figures C4-C7

inclusive
3-3

GENERAL PURPOSE COMPUTERS INSTALLED

(As of Year-End 1979)

BY SIZE CLASS

U.S. Installed Federal Government Gov't CPUs - Size Class Base Installed Base Percent of U.S,

2 14,810 148 1.0%

3 16,652 531 3.2%

4 10,284 784 7.6%

5 4,891 300 6.1%

6 4,641 402 8.7%

7 1,965 297 15.1%

Total 53,243 2,462 Av. 6.95%

FIGURE CI

As can be seen from Figure C2, the majority of software

expenditures are for application software; this is

primarily because the range of applications being run

requires a greater variety of software; consequently,

several systems may be required to perform a task, where one

package may suffice for systems and/or utility software

requirements. Also of interest is the great extent to which

application software is developed internally; as Figure C3

indicates, fully three-fourths of all application software

dollars are spent for internal development costs. Also of

interest is the forecast that external software expenditures

are expected to almost double by the end of 1980, to an

4
iiated figure of $1,450 million; in addition, internal

nditures should also increase to an estimated $6,960
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Figure C3 presents the percentage of software expenditures

for each of the categories identified in Figure C2. As before,

these percentages are for the general computer population;

figures for Federal Government installations can be found in

Figures C4-C7 inclusive

By applying the percentages of total CPUs that represent

CPUs in Federal Government sites against the dollar value of

expenditures for software, estimates are obtained for software

expenditures at Federal Government sites. These data are

presented in Figure C4. The percentage of internal versus

external expenditures were assumed to be comparable for both the

general population and for Government systems; consequently, the

same percentage figures were used in the preparation of these

tables

Figures C5 through C7 provide estimates of the dollar

amounts spent and the internal versus external spending

distribution at Federal Government computer sites, by size class,

for the three major types of software — system, utility, and

application.

Figure C5 presents the estimated expenditures at Government

sites for system software. As stated earlier, system software

requirements are generally met by a smaller number of software

systems than are utilities and applications requirements; this

is reflected in the correspondingly smaller dollar amount spent

for this type of software. Note that the estimated Government

expenditures for system software, as compared to all Government

software expenditures, do not differ radically from those when

compared with the total U.S. market; overall, the cumulative

estimate for Government spending for system software is less than

for the total United States, (15 percent versus 18 percent).

Figure C6 presents the estimated expenditures attributable

to Federal Government sites for utility software. In this

software category, two facets of Government site spending are

worthy of special note;

Overall spending for utility software at

Government sites is virtually the same as for the
3-7

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the total U.S. general purpose computer population.

The extent of internal versus external

utility software spending is very close to that of

the total United States. The total U.S. internal

spending for utility software is about 43 percent

of the total, while for the Government it is

estimated to be approximately 50 percent.

External spending in the Government is estimated

to be 50 percent as contrasted with 57 percent for

the total United States.

Figure C7 presents estimated Federal Government

expenditures for application software. As stated earlier,

this software area is the one for which the greatest amount

of money is spent, both internally and externally; however,

the proportion of internally spent money is greater for

application software than for any other type, primarily

because the software must often meet particular site or

system needs.

The total $376. 2m spending for Federal application

software represents about 67 percent of all Federal software

spending. The U.S. spending for applications software was

about 71 percent of the total. Thus, the Federal spending

for applications software is quite similar to the U.S.

spending pattern. The portion of this figure spent

internally, however, exceeds the U.S. internal figure.

This indicates that, while the requirement for application

software at Government computer sites may be similar to the

commercial sector, the degree of customization appears to be

greater, explaining the larger percentage of total internal

expenditures.
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Section Four

SYSTEM DISTRIBUTION BY MODE OF OPERATION

Introduction

This portion of the report focuses on analysis

installation workload by mode of operation and

application. For the purposes of this anaiy,

applications have been grouped as defined in Section Twc

this report. Modes of operation include on-line, batch,

remote batch.

1. On-line operation involves the use of : and/or related peripheral equipment whicii

direct operator interaction with the system CPO

2. Batch operation involves the use of gene

terminals and/or other peripheral Lces

submission of jobs which are performed ii ? format, with results provided to the user

completed.

3. Remote batch operation involves the use

specialized remote batch terminals which per

rapid job entry at remote sites, coupled v: production of reports at those si^es.

IDC conducted a detailed search of existing Ii^C i:e^-'

and available literature on systems design

implementation to develop statistics on system utilizat

by mode of operation and application. These searc

indicate that detailed statistics are not availat

Therefore, IDC has adopted an indirect approach

estimating utilization rates. In general, this apr

involves analysis of the distribution of applic ^ system characteristics over installations,

distribution statistics have been adjusted as appropriaco

generate estimates of system utilization.
4-2

Workload by Mode of Operation

IDC has compiled two measures which provide some

insight into the distribution of system workload by mode of

operation. Figure Dl presents the distribution of systems

with terminal controllers by size class. Since controllers

are associated with relatively large terminal-based systems,

this measure provides some indication of the importance of

on-line operations.

Figure D2 presents the distribution of systems with

remote batch terminals. While a significant portion of all

remote batch jobs will be submitted from terminals which are

also capable of operating in an on-line mode, the

distribution of remote batch terminals provides a reasonable

basis for estimating the importance of remote batch

operations.

Figure D3 provides estimates of the distribution of

workload by mode of operation. The statistics presented in

Figures Dl and D2 were adjusted on the basis of information

provided by IDC specialists to reflect the reasonable

approximation of workload distribution given in Figure D3.

However, these workload estimates are, at best, estimates

based on limited information.
4-3

DISTRIBUTION OF SYSTEMS WITH TERhGNAL CONTROLLERS

1979 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INSTALLATIONS

Size Class % With Controllers

2 3.4

3 12.6

4 29.0

5 52 .

8

6 63.9

7 63.0

Minicomputers 6.9

Others 5.0

Total 17.2

FIGURE Dl
4-4

DISTRIBUTION OF SYSTEMS WITH REMOTE BATCH TERMINALS

1979 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INSTALLATIONS

Size Class % With Controllers

2 6.5

3 10.6

4 7.7

5 8.9

6 8.0

7

' 7.7

Minicomputers 1.5

Others 2.0

Total 5.3

FIGURE D2
4-5

DISTRIBUTION OF SYSTEMS 3Y WORKLOAD

19 79 FEDERAL GOVEKN>IENT INSTALLATIONS

Size Class Remote Batch On-Line Batch

2 ^0% 5% 85?

3 20% 25% 55%

4 30$ 35$ 35%

5 20% 55% 25%

6 15? 70? 15?

7 15? 70? 15?

Minicomputers 5? 10? 85?

Others 5? 10? 85?

FIGURE D3
4-6

Workload By Application

Figure D4 repeats IDC's estimates for Federal

Government applications based on the figures for the

principal applications of systems listed on the IDC Data

File. These figures were given in Section Two. Estimates

of system workload distribution by application, presented in

Figure D5, are based on this distribution. However, the

distribution has been adjusted to include some evaluation of

the relative effort associated with the different

applications

1. Both commercial and non-commercial applications

tend to place greater than average demands upon

systems, with many systems dedicated to reporting

accounting, sales, and inventory information or to

the control applications involved in non-commercial

applications.

2. Problem solving and word processing operations

should generally be less demanding of system

resources. In particular, word processing may

often be an application installed to utilize

resources not required for other applications.

Thus Figure D5 presents estimates of the percentage of

time the system is spending (the system workload) on each

application area.
APPLICATION DISTRIBUTION

1979 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INSTALLATIONS

Application Frequency

Commercial 64.6%

Non-Commercial 21.0%

Problem Solving 13.3%

Word Processing 2.0%

FIGURE D4

ESTIMATED WORKLOAD DISTRIBUTION

1979 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INSTALLATIONS

Application Frequency

Commercial 68%

Non-Commercial 25%

Problem Solving 6%

Word Processing 1%

FIGURE D5

5-1

Section Five

DATA BASE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Introduction

This section of the report considers various aspects of

the implementation of data base management systems (DBMS)

used in Federal Government computer installations. There

are five subsections to this analysis of DBMS use:

1. Estimates of the number and dollar value of DBMS

used in Federal Government installations.

2. A breakdown of the estimated number of

installations for each of the major commercial DBMS

packages.

3. Estimates of the number and dollar value of DBMS

systems developed in-house in the Federal

Government.

4. Projections of DBMS use and growth in installed

base through 1985.

Definition of DBMS

It is worthwhile at this point to review what is meant

by a data base management system. IDC defines a DBMS as a general purpose, application-independent software package

used in association with some form of on-line mass storage

to facilitate the entry, storage, processing, sharing, and

retrieval of structured data -- that is, data which is

either logically or physically interconnected. In this

respect, a DBMS differs from file management systems,

because the software is data rather than file oriented.
Methodology

Six areas of information were developed in order to

determine the data necessary for an analysis of the use of

DBMS at Federal Government computer sites. This information

included

1. The number of CPUs installed, according to computer

size class.

2. The number of CPUs installed at Federal Government

sites.

3. The number of CPUs installed at Federal Government

sites, according to computer size class.

4. The total number of DBMS packages installed.

5. The distribution of DBMS packages installed

according to computer size class.

6. The average dollar value of major commercial DBMS

packages.

To obtain the installed base of DBMS packages in the

Federal Government, IDC embarked upon a three-stage research

task:

1. IDC estimated the actual number of DBMS

installations for the U.S. market. This approach

was directed to each major general purpose computer

vendor, by size class. Estimates were obtained for

each vendor by size class and then aggregated to

reflect total U.S. DBMS installations for the total

general purpose computer population.

2. IDC then determined the "percent with DBMS" figure

for DBMS relative to each vendor '"s general purpose

computer systems within each size class.

3. This "percent with" figure was then applied to the

estimated Federal Government installed base of

general purpose CPUs by vendor and by size class to

generate total estimated DBMS installations for the

Federal Government.
/

5-

This approach also takes into consideration

dissimilarities between general purpose computer system

distributions in the U.S. market and the Federal Government

market.

The dollar value of DBMS installed at Federal

Government computer sites was determined by multiplying the

Federal DBMS installed base calculated above by the average

price of each vendor^s specific commercial DBMS package.

The dollar value assigned to "other independents" was based

upon an overall average of vendor's DBMS offerings, yielding

a figure of $62,000.

Estimates regarding the number of internally developed

DBMS in the Federal Government were also derived from this

three-stage process. The dollar values for internally

developed DBMS were determined by multiplying the installed

base of in-house-developed systems by the average value of

$300,000. The figure of $300,000 was selected as a reasonable figure for self-development costs because an

internally developed system is generally the product of

customization to meet particular site requirements, and

because development costs cannot be spread over multiple

installations. Consequently, IDC estimates that the cost of

developing such a system is approximately three times the

cost of a "high-end" commercial system — typically about

$100,000.

Projections of DBMS installation through 1985 were

derived by an analysis of IDC's projections of DBMS growth

patterns from past years, and extension of those growth

patterns through the target year of 1985. Previous IDC

research has found that DBMS implementation is largely

determined by the size of the senior computer system

installed at a given site. Consequently, DBMS installation

growth projections are associated with growth in the number

of sites with senior systems of a particular size class.

Such growth has been considered in developing the following

projections.

CPU Installed Base

Figure El presents the installed base of CPUs,

according to size class. The general population figures

were derived from IDC's estimates contained in the 1980

General Purpose Computer Census and Minicomputer Census, as
5-4

U.S. AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

CPU INSTALLED BASE

GENERAL PURPOSE & MINICOMPUTERS

(As of year end 1979)

Size Class

U.S.

Installed Base

Federal Government

Installed Base

2 14,810 148

3 16,652 531

10,28M 784

5 4,891 300

6 M,6M1 402

7 1,965 297

Mini computers 344,800 7,539

FIGURE El
5-5

published in the IDC publication, EDP Industry Report . The

number of Government CPUs was determined from an analysis of

IDC's U.S. Computer Installation Data File and the GSA

Equipment Inventory.

DBMS Installed Base

Figure E2 presents IDC's estimate

in the general computer population

These estimates were derived from

sources

.

of DBMS installations

, as of yearend 1979.

several information

1. DBMS installation estimates were obtained from

prior IDC research on DBMS installations on a major

manufacturer's systems.

2. DBMS offerings from major independent DBMS vendors

were allocated among various manufacturer's systems

using existing IDC information on independent

vendors' installations.

3. DBMS installations on a major manufacturer's

systems were allocated among size classes using

existing DBMS distribution information from prior

IDC research.

4. DBMS installations on other manufacturers' systems

were allocated among size classes by estimating the

DBMS installations for each major vendor, by size

class. This approach provided a true indicator of

DBMS on other systems since recent findings by IDC

indicate that DBMS usage among other vendors can be

widely dissimilar to usage of DBMS on a major

manufacturer's systems.

Figure E3 presents the estimated distribution by size

class of DBMS use among computer sites in the Federal

Government.
5-6

U.S. DBMS USE BY SIZE CLASS

Class of U.S. Percent Number

Equipment Installed Base With DBMS With DBMS

General Purpose, by

Size Class:

2 ^^,Q^o 2%E 291

3 16,652 10? 1,632

M 10,284 19? 1,915

5 M,891 35% 1,679

6 M,641 H5% 2,0^7

7 1,965 60? 1,156

Total:

General Purpose 53,2^^3 I6? 8,720

Minicomputer 3^^,800 1.1$E 3,840

TOTAL 398,043 3.2? 12,560

FIGURE E2
ESTIMATED DBMS USE BY SIZE CLASS

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

December, 1979

Class of Federal Government

Eauioment Installed Base

Percent

With DBMS

Numb er With DBMS

General Purpose, by

oize Class:

2 1118

11 7811 5 300

6 1J02 7 297

.7?

D . Ofi 12.5?

211.3?

^3.9?'

36.5?

1 J!) 98

73

176

108

Total:

General Purpose 2,117^ 20.2? 1J91

Miniccnputers 7,539 1.1 ?E 83

TOTAL 10,013 5.8? 57 M

FIGURE E3
Major Commercial DBMS Packages

IDC conducted a study of major DBMS vendors'* products,

estimated installations and market shares (based on

installation estimates) for the United States and the

Federal Government general purpose computers. These

estimates were based on previous IDC studies and information

from the vendors themselves. These vendors included

independent software suppliers and hardware vendors. From

the findings of this study IDC estimates that there are over

8400 installations of DBMS in the United States,

representing over $230 million in dollar value for yearend

1979. The average purchase price of these systems was

approximately $62,000. This average purchase price figure

does not include the purchase prices from a few major

hardware vendors whose DBMS are not available on a purchase

basis. Packages which were only available on a lease basis

ranged from $300 to $750 per month.

IDC estimated the number of Federal installations based

on the U.S. figures and allowing for differences in the

hardware in the Federal Government. They estimated that

there were 491 DBMS in the Federal Government representing

an installed value of $30M for yearend 1979,

Internally Developed DBMS

Internal development of a DBMS is an option that is

taken by relatively few users of DBMS systems, principally

because there are less expensive and more convenient ways to

implement a DBMS — namely, the packaged DBMS systems

available from a number of hardware and independent vendors.

Nevertheless, because of particular site and/or application

requirements, some users do choose to develop and implement

their own DBMS systems. IDC anticipates that, as

commercially available packages prove themselves in the user

community, the incidence of internally developed DBMS

installations will decline over time.

Estimates for internally developed DBMS installations

are presented in Figure E4 for the general computer

population -- the U.S. market in total - and in Figure E5

for Federal Government sites. The percentages of

in-house-developed DBMS for each size class were derived

from previous IDC research in the DBMS market; these

percentages were then multiplied by the estimated total

number of DBMS installed to obtain the data contained in the
5-9

tables. Information regarding DBMS use at minicomputer

sites is scanty, and no published estimates were available

for this analysis. IDC estimates that only about 1 percent

of minicomputer sites are using DBMS, principally because of

the typical applications for minis (networking, data

acquisition and control, etc.). For those minicomputer

sites that do use DBMS, other IDC research indicates that

approximately 14 percent of these systems are developed

internally.
5-10

INTERNALLY DEVELOPED DBMS

by SIZE CLASS

U.S.

Size Class Insta lied Developed DeveloDed

?8l C C 1 FLi 17

3 1,578 12$ 196

11 1,852 2? 35

5 1,62H 7M

6 1 , 981 3% sn

7 1,118 5% 59

Total Mainframe 8,^3^ 5% ^35

Minicomputers 3,8i40 538

TOTAL ALL 12,27^ 973

FIGURE E4
5-11

INTERNALLY DEVELOPED DBMS

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES, BY SIZE CLASS

Size Class

Number DBMS

Installed

% Internally

Develooed

Number Internally

Developed

2 1 -0- -0-

3 35 8.5$ 3

ii*i oo o

5 76 1.9% 6

6 1811 7.1$ 13

7 109 7.3$ 8

Total >feinfraae 7.3$ 36

Miricor:puter 83 114.5$ 12

TOTAL ALL 5711 8.14$ HQ

FIGURE E5
5-12

To obtain an estimate of the dollar value of internally

developed DBMS installed, the estimates of number of

self-developed DBMS were multiplied by $300,000. This

figure was determined by IDC to be a reasonable estimate of

the cost of developing a DBMS internally because the degree

of customization required to produce a DBMS suited to a particular site's requirements is believed to be on the

order of three times the price of a typical "high-end"

commercial DBMS package. (The figure of $100,000 is

representative of the upper end of the commercial DBMS price

scale.) For minicomputers, again, there were no data

available with which to formulate an estimate of internal

development costs; consequently, the same methodology was

applied as for mainframe DBMS systems. In the case of

minicomputers, however, a search of all available product

literature revealed that the upper end of the commercial

package price scale is on the order of $35,000. This

$35,000 figure, when trebled, yields the rounded estimate of

$100,000 for internal development costs for a minicomputer

DBMS. This estimate was applied to the IDC estimate of the

number of internally developed minicomputer DBMS systems.

The results of this tabulation are presented in Figure

E6 for the general computer population and for Federal

Government sites.

DBMS Market Projection Through 1985

Figure E7 presents IDC's estimate of the projected

growth of DBMS use for the years 1975 to 1985. The

ebcimated growth figures were derived from previous IDC

research in the DBMS market.
INTERNALLY DEVELOPED DBMS

DJ STALLED VALUE

December 1979 - U.S.

5-13

Size Class

Number

Installed Average Cost

Dollar Value

Installed

2 17 $300 K $5.1 M

3 196 n $58.8 M

35 n $10.5 M

II ^c-c. ^ c. n

6 54 n $16.2 M

7 59 II $17.7 M

Minicomputers 538 $100 K $53.8 M _

TOTAL 973 $18^4.3 M

FEDERAL

INTERNALLY

GOVER.NI-IENT DE\'ELO?ED DBMSSITES, INSTALLED VAXUE

Size Class

Numoer

Installed Average Cost

Dollar Value

Installed

2 -0- $300 K -0-

3 3

n $. 9M

i} 6

II $1. 8M

5

n $1.8M

6 13 It $3-9M

7 8

ft %2M

Minicomputers 12 $100 K $1 .2M

TOTAL U8 $12. OM

FIGURE E6
5-14

GROWTH OF DBMS IMPLEMENTATION

ON GENERAL PURPOSE COMPUTERS, 1975-1985 - U.S.

* DBI-IS Percent it CPUs % with

Year Insta lied Growth Installed DBMS

1 97 D oc

,

1 UU

31%

1976 3,700 59,600 6%

32%

1977 5, J^40 58,200 9%

23%

1978 7, 060 57,900 12%

19%

1979 8,720 53,200 16%

16%

1980 10, 115 52,800 19%

1^4% T981 11, 530 53 , 800 21%

12%

1 982 12, 900 2M%

10%

1983 1i^,200 55, ^00 26%

15,350

8%

56, 600 27%

7%

1985 ^6,^oo 57,700 28%

FIGURE E7
5-15

Of particular note is the fact that the rate of DBMS

implementation slows over time. As indicated earlier, this

is a result of market saturation; most of those sites

requiring DBMS by 1985 will already have one installed.

Further, DBMS implementation is more a factor of the site's

size class than of the number of CPUs installed. As a result, growth in the CPU installed base does not

automatically indicate a growth in DBMS implementation.

6-1

Section Six

CONTRACT SERVICES*

Introduction and Methodology

This section of the report deals with the scope of

contract services in the Federal Government. Analyses

include a 5 year forecast for seven categories of contract

services. In addition, a detailed overview of three of

these categories (remote problem solving services,

facilities management services, and network services) is

presented

.

The research employed in this analysis encompassed

three areas:

1. A primary data gathering mission was undertaken at the

General Services Administration (GSA) . Here, the IDC

consulting group viewed and analyzed documents outlining

the size and vendor participation of contract services

in the Federal Government. In addition, personal

interviews were conducted with specialists at GSA

regarding their own fields of expertise as they related

to the contract services under consideration. A

perspective on growth trends was also gained.

2. Collection of data to supplement GSA information was

accomplished by contacts with other Federal Government

agencies, including 0MB.

3. In-depth analysis of existing IDC information was

performed on the services market and its relationship to

that portion which is Federal Government oriented. This

research also served as a reconciling factor between IDC

data and GSA obtained data.

* Certain commercial vendors'*

section by IDC. In no case

recommendation or endorsement

Sciences and Technology

Standards

.

names are identified in this

does such identification imply

by the Institute for Computer

nor the National Bureau of
Overview of Contract Services

Data processing related contract services in the Federal

Government amounted to an estimated $2.3 billion in 1979. These

services are expected to grow at an annual compound rate of 15

percent which will amount to some $5.2 billion in dollar volume

by 1985.

In broad terms, there are six categories of these services

that are performed by contractors:

1. Systems Analysis and Programming Services result from

contracts through organizations that offer various types of

programming and analyst functions for software.

Approximately $470 million or 21 percent of all contract

services originated from this segment. This is the largest

contributor to contract services as estimated by IDC. By

1985, 16 percent of all contract services, or $837 million

will originate from systems analysis and programming services — an annual compound growth rate of 10 percent.

2. Processing Services are timesharing services offered by both

hardware and dedicated services and software vendors.

Computing time and networking capabilities are the primary

offerings from most of these suppliers. Nearly one half of

the activity in the processing services market results over

communications lines while applications usage and computing

time constitutes the remaining portion. Total processing

services in the Federal Government in 1979 amounted to $438

million, or 19 percent of all contract services. By 1985,

these services are expected to grow by 11 percent annually,

to $796 million.

2a. Remote problem solving services are a specific type of

processing service and represent approximately 29 percent of

all timesharing services. Tasks under this category include

more sophisticated applications and/or ad hoc computing time

for specialized, short-term projects. In 1979, remote

problem solving services amounted to some $98 million, or 4

percent of all contract services. This figure will grow at

an annual compound rate of 10 percent to $190 million by

1985.

3. Facilities Management Services are tasks that include such

services as managing the operation of a data processing

facility. These duties are usually performed by services

vendors, but not exclusively. Facilities management

contracts in the Federal Government amounted to approximately
6-3

$300 million, or 13 percent of all contract services in 1979.

This figure is expected to grow at just 1.5 percent annually

to $327 million by 1985. In addition, FM contracts will drop

to only 6 percent of all contract services in the Federal

Government by 1985.

4. Network Services include both voice and data communications.

IDC estimates that these telecommunications contracts

represent $668 million in the Federal Government

approximately 29 percent of the dollar value of all contract

services. Network services, overall, should grow by 20

percent annually, which will amount to some $1.9 billion in

value by 1985.

5. Maintenance Services are contracts that include upkeep and

maintenance of the data processing facility, i.e.

maintaining the operational condition of hardware, etc. In- 1979, these contracts represented $250 million, or 11 percent

of the total contract services in the Federal Government. By

1985, maintenance services will amount to $556 million - a compound annual growth factor of 14 percent.

6. Research and Consulting Services are composed of research

studies and specialized, custom, consulting contracts.

Contracts of this nature represent some $146 million in

dollar value in the Federal Government in 1979 - contributing

approximately 6 percent to total contract services. This

segment, as estimated by IDC, is the highest growth portion

of Federal Government contract services. By 1985, consulting

services will grow at an annual rate of 29 percent (to $687

million) where it will contribute an estimated 13 percent to

total contract services.

Figure Fl provides the estimated dollar value of contract

services in the Federal Government, by type of service, from 1979

through 1985. Figure F2 shows the 1979 and 1985 data in pie

chart form to highlight the major changes in contract service.

Of particular interest are the analyses of three categories

of contract services: remote problem solving services;

facilities management services; and network services. An

overview of each of these three services follows.
6-4

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Remote Problem Solving Services

Remote problem solving services represented a 29 percent

portion of the total Federal Government timesharing activities in

1979. These types of contracts originate from large, well

established vendors that offer extra computer time and/or

sophisticated software applications - usually on an ad hoc basis.

Remote problem services in the Federal Government amounted

to $98 million in 1979. The largest supplier was Computer

Sciences Corporation with an estimated $43.4 million in

contractual activity - 44 percent of the total. Other

participants include Tymshare, Boeing, and CDC.

The specific tasks these vendors perform are wide-ranging.

Computer Sciences, for example, while specializing in the Federal

Government marketplace, offers financial and economic data bases.

Also, a significant portion of remote problem solving activities

occur through the use of proprietary data bases. In this

instance, contractors such as universities and investments

establishments supply confidential, specialized data bases such

as access to library/bibliographical information and financial

records.

Figure F3 outlines the remote problem solving services

market for the Federal Government in 1979 and its major

contractor participants. IDC believes that this market in the

Federal Government will grow at healthy rates over the next 5

years: by 1985, this market should amount to $190 million',

representing over 24 percent of all processing services and 4

percent of all Federal Government contract services.

Facilities Management Services

Facilities Management (or "FM") services include tasks such

as managing and operating a data processing facility under a contractual arrangement over a stated period of time. Also,

supplying personnel and procuring equipment often occurs in an FM

contract.

Some of the more typical parameters of a Federal Government

FM contract include the following:

1. Data entry tasks such as keypunching, key entry verification,

and supply of data entry operators.
6-7

ESTIMATED DOLLAR VALUE OF REMOTE PROBLEM SOLVING SERVICES

IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT — BY CONTRACTOR

1979

(Millions)

Contractor Dollar Value Percent

Couputer Sciences

Tymshare M.I

i Boeing 8.0 8.2

1 CDC 5.7 5.8

G/E 5. 1 5.2

United Computing 2.7 2.8

Others* 29. 1 29. 6

TOTAL $98.0 100. 0$

Others Include: On-Line Systems, Interactive Data, Rapidata,

Scientific Timesharing, Bowne Information, Martin Marietta, Service

Bureau, etc.

FIGURE F3
b-8

2. Operational tasks such as managing and staffing a data

processing facility. Evaluation of performance, production

scheduling, programming and systems analysis, and technical

assistance for both hardware and software are also common

functions retained under an FM agreement in the Federal

Government.

3. Management of personnel and various data base libraries such

as tape and disk media are prevalent.

4. System configuration design and implementation commonly form

a part of an FM contract. Here, contractors are required to

establish proper peripheral placements (i.e. terminals) for

optimum functionality.

5. General maintenance of the data processing facility includes

traditional up-keep and management of computer operations.

6. Time frames for most FM contracts in the Federal Government

run from 2 to 5 years.

It should be noted that many of these functions included in

FM contracts also occur separately (i.e. programming and

maintenance) under other contractual categories. Those tasks

that appear in both categories are treated separately in IDC^s

dollar value estimates and do not overlap into the facilities

management category.

IDC estimates FM contracts in the Federal Government to

amount to an estimated $300 million in 1979. This category is

expected to grow at low but stable rates - some 1.5 percent

annually over 5 years.

The FM market in the private sector is diminishing in

popularity with both users and vendors. Users often cannot cost

justify the large amount of labor and often lengthy time frame

required for a particular task, nor can the vendor justify low

profit margins typically associated with large, complex FM

contracts. It is usually more beneficial to retain timesharing

services for most data processing functions where either one will

provide satisfactory results. The Federal Government market,

however, represents a healthy target for FM vendors despite the

fact that it is growing more slowly than the Federal Government

contract service market as a whole. Often the highly complex

and/or confidential needs of a particular task eliminate the use

of a service bureau and leaves an FM arrangement the only

feasible alternative. Despite this low growth rate of 1.5
6-9

percent for FM contracts in the Federal Government, it still

represents a stable market for participating FM vendors and

Government users.

Figure F4 outlines the major Federal Government contractors

of FM services in 1979 by dollar value delivered. Computer

Sciences again is the leading participant, with a 26.7 percent,

market share, capturing an estimated $80.3 million in FM services

delivered over the year. By 1985, the total FM market in the

Federal Government should reach $327 million.

Network Services

Network services proved to be a difficult category to assess

due to problems inherent in defining and then establishing dollar

value of telecommunications facilities. Federal Government

analysts confirmed this dilemma. IDC, however, was able to

approximate the dollar amount of these services and the major

carriers participating.

Voice communications represented approximately 56 percent of

the total telecommunications contractual dollar activity in 1979

in the Federal Government. The remaining portion - 44 percent

was estimated to be allocated in data transmission. There is, of

course, much overlap between voice and data transmission over one

carrier (e.g. both voice and data transmission takes place over

FTS) : IDC^s dollar value estimates are based upon factoring out

overlapping functions to arrive at a total aggregate value that

represents all of network services in the Federal Government.

The defense sector of the Federal Government represents

approximately 60 percent of the total dollar value of network

services while use of networks in the civil portion is estimated

to be 40 percent.

Figure F5 illustrates IDC^s estimated mix of network

carriers in the Federal Government as of 1979. From a total

dollar value of $668 million, over 29 percent originates from

Federal-agency-designed systems.. WATS and FTS networks follow

closely at 23 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Growth rates

for all of network services in the Federal Government are quite

healthy: some 20 percent per year over the next 5 years. By

1985, these services should reach a total dollar value of $2.0

billion and are expected to contribute over 38 percent to total

ADP contract services, as compared to just over 29 percent in

1979.
6-10

ESTIMATED DOLLAR VALUE OF FACILITIES MANAGEMENT SERVICES

IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT — BY CONTRACTOR

1979

(Millions)

Contractor Dollar Value Percent

Compute" Sciences Corp. $80.3 26.7

System Development Corp. 43.5 14.5

Planning Research Corp. 40.2 13.4

CDC 39.0 13.0

Others* 97.0 32.4

TOTAL $300.0 100.0$

Numerous small contractors

FIGURE F4
6-11

ESTIMATED DOLLAR VALUE OF NETWORK SERVICES

IN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT — BY CONTRACTOR

(Voice and Data)

1979

(Millions)

Contractor Dollar Value Percent

Agency Designed Systems $197. 1 29.5$

WATS (AT&T) 157.

1

23.5

FTS( Federal Telecommunications

' System) ni.7 21.2

Telepak (AT&T and Western

Union) 137.6 20. 6

Datacan (Western Union) 22.

1

3.3

Value Added:

(Tymenet, Telenetj 12.7 1.9

TOTAL $658.

3

100.0$

FIGURE F5

Section Seven

SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT

Introduction

This final section of the report deals with the state

of software and software development in 30 Federal

Government agencies. This information was obtained via a primary research effort conducted by the IDC Consulting

Group in addition to secondary sources. The intent of this

section was to establish the accuracy of the data that was

estimated in Section Three. An attempt was made to obtain

data from the identified agencies and approved ADP

installations that would allow confidence intervals to be

assigned to the information gathered in Section Three.

IDC was not able to assign confidence intervals to the

data in Section Three. The software spending information,

obtained in Section Three was not of a complete enough

nature to permit realistic comparative analysis with the

information gathered for this section. Also, the small

sample size and the non-random sample selection utilized in

this section places limits on the statistical significance

of this section's results. Therefore, software spending

projections could not be analyzed. The IDC Consulting Group

did, however, link information obtained from this process

with internal IDC information and with knowledge of

individuals within IDC. By drawing upon this broad arena of

knowledge in addition to external sources of data (i.e.,

leading publications that IDC continually monitors and

incorporates in the total IDC body of knowledge) IDC feels

that this analysis can provide a reasonable perspective on

software development in Federal Government ADP

installations

.

Methodology

Research design consisted of a careful selection of

Federal Government ADP installations. A total of 30 Federal

Government IDC "Information Systems Planning Service"

sponsors were contacted for this research. Once identified

and contacted, each site was personally visited in order to

obtain the relevant information.
7-2

During the data gathering process, more than one

individual at a selected agency was typically required in

order to gain insight into software development for that

particular site. Often three people were consulted to

supplement and/or substantiate the information since one

individual rarely had sufficient or complete information.

In several cases, some of the questions could not be

answered by the responding agency either through the primary

individual contacted or through a follow-up search. This

was almost exclusively due to the difficulty obtaining some

of the information required.

Some questions could not be answered by responding

agencies due to the complexity of the information requested.

1. Internal Federal Government information often was

unavailable in the form requested in the work statement.

2. Some agencies are highly decentralized which made it

difficult to obtain information relevant to the entire

agency. In these agencies, respondents were asked to

provide consistent information for all questions. Sites

that could only answer questions about the software

activity at their immediate location, were asked to

provide other information only for the same location.

3. Several ADP sites experienced difficulty in determining

the installed value of their software since sucl;i

statistics are not generated as a part of ongoing

operations.

Consequently, IDC made every effort to obtain and

verify the validity of all information.

Definitional Review

IDC typically segments the software market by product

category and by type of vendor.

A. Product categories are:

1. System Software is designed to operate through the

basic operating system. This software improves the

operating capabilities of the hardware system by

efficiently routing data flows among machine units
7-3

and permits evaluation of the efficiency of systems

personnel through systems performance measurement

tools.

Application Software provides solutions to unique,

user-specified problems such as payroll or

personnel.

Utility Software organizes and manages data

resources through data/file managers and sort/merge

products; improves program integrity through

maintenance and security programs; and increases

the productivity of application programmers by

performing standard functions.

B. Outside software sources include:

1. Independent packaged software vendors offer

previously developed software in an "off the shelf"

form to users. Independent packaged software

excludes software developed and/or sold by hardware

vendors

.

2. Hardware vendors also offer software - typically of

the systems and utility variety - for their own

users.

3. Custom software includes customer-unique systems

and programming development, including contract

services. Each customer presents the vendor with a unique data processing problem, and development

costs are absorbed by individual clients. These

services usually involve large, complex systems

and/or programs, and development costs are

typically high.

C. In-house developed software includes systems developed

by users at user sites. ADP installations developing

sophisticated proprietary technical products will often

prefer to develop their own software for cost justification

reasons

.
Findings

Figure Gl presents the average dollar value of

installed software found in the ADP installations contacted.

The installed value of software ranged from $29,000 to $6.7

million^ The installed value of applications software was

$20,000 to $36 million. The installed value of utilities

software was slightly less expensive -- from a low of

$10,000 to a high of $11.3 million. Estimates of installed

value presented in Figure Gl present respondent estimates of

software installations at EDP sites contacted during this

study.

IDC regularly estimates total revenues by type of

software for U»S» -based software suppliers. These revenue

estimates cannot be compared directly to the Government

estimates, since the estimates in Figure Gl represent the

total dollar value of installed software, while IDC

estimates income flows generated by the installed software.

However, the relative distribution of the two estimates

provides a frame of reference for evaluation of the

reasonableness of estimates of the Federal Government

software installed base.

Total U.S. revenues attributable to software from

outside sources, including independent packaged software

houses and hardware vendors, follow a pattern similar to

that of the installed value of software at Federal

Government sites included in this analysis.

1. Revenues from these sources amounted to over $1.3

billion in 1979 -- with $722 million originating from

independent sources.

2. Applications software from independent sources

contributed nearly 57 percent to the $722 million.

3. Utilities software generated approximately 31 percent of

the independent revenue.

4. System software revenues represented 12 percent of

independent revenue.

The relative use of utilities software in the

commercial sector is substantially greater than at the

Federal Government sites included in the analysis. This can

be explained, in part, by respondents'* lack of information
7-5

concerning the installed value of utilities software at

their sites.

AVERAGE INSTALLED VALUE OF SOFTWARE IN

SELECTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

Software Average Dollar Value Installed

Systems Software $2. 3m

Applications Software $20. 8m

Utilities Software $1.6m

TOTAL $24. 7m

FIGURE Gl

IDC was able to identify the sources of software

installed by agencies included in this analysis. As Figure

G2 illustrates, in-house developed software constitutes the

major source of software, with 61 percent of the installed

base. Respondents indicated that the very nature of their

software development — usually of a proprietary and highly

custom nature — is responsible for this trend. ADP shops

engaged in highly scientific or proprietary applications

typically find in-house development is the only feasible

alternative. This is due to the level of expertise required

and the need for familiarity with the on-going phases of

tasks at these sites. One agency mentioned that users

develop a significant portion of the software in the agency.

The users may be high-level chemical or industrial engineers

who are also competent programmers in their own right - and

therefore able to bring to' bear knowledge which would be

difficult and costly to obtain fron the commercial sector.

Some installations indicated that they obtain almost

all of their software from one or two outside sources.

In-house capabilities are linked with the software expertise

of outside firms for generation of custom systems. Several
7-6

sites indicated that virtually all of their installed

software is developed in-house, while a minority acquires

its software from the commercial sector either in a packaged

form or on a custom basis.

AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION OF ORIGIN OF INSTALLED SOFTWARE

IN SELECTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

Origin Amount Percentage

Purchased Outside : Packaged* $3. 5m 14.3%

Custom $6. 2m 24.9%

In-House Development $15 . Om 60. 8%

TOTAL $24. 7m 100.0%

^Includes independent ("off the shelf") packaged sources

and from hardware vendors.

FIGURE G2

Figures G3 and G4 present average growth trends for

installed software in general, and for installed software by

source. Based on information supplied by Federal Government

sites y IDC estimates that the software with the largest

growth per year through 1985 will be applications software.

This software is expected to grow in installed value by 16

percent per year. This is followed by systems software and

utilities software, with 13 percent and 7 percent growth per

year, respectively. Sites contacted during this study

projected a -broad range of growth rates. Estimated growth

rates ranged from zero growth to as much as 100 percent per

year for all types of software.

Growth trends for the U.S. independent packaged

software market, in terms of supplier revenues, differ

significantly from estimated growth rates in installed value

at Federal Government sites, IDC estimates that the
t

7-7

independent packaged software market in the United States

will grow at a compound growth rate of 15 percent per year

through 1985. Systems software will grow at 9 percent while

applications software will grow at a healthy 15 percent per

year through 1985. Utilities software will also grow at a healthy rate through 1985 — 14 percent per year.

The average growth trend for in-house developed

software, in terms of installed value, will be greater than

rates for the other two software sources. Growth will be an

estimated 19 percent per year through 1985. This reaffirms

the present trend toward more dedicated use of in-house

capabilities, since agencies prefer to develop their

software in-house. Growth of acquisitions from outside

sources (both packaged and custom) will be steady, with an

average of 12 percent of growth per year through 1985.

AVERAGE GROWTH TRENDS FOR INSTALLED SOFTWARE

IN SELECTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

Software

Percent Growth Per Year

Through 1985

Systems Software 13.3%

Applications Software 16.1%

Utilities Software 6.9%

FIGURE G3
AVERAGE GROWTH TRENDS OF INSTALLED VALUE

FOR ORIGIN OF INSTALLED SOFTWARE

IN SELECTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

Percent Growth Per Year

Origin Through 1985

Purchased Outside ; Independent Packaged

Custom

In-House Developed

FIGURE G4

Information about the number of programs installed at

Federal Government agency sites appears in Figure G5. The

data represents the average number of programs installed, by

type of program. Applications programs are the largest

portion, representing 77 percent of the installed base. The

number of applications software programs correlates with the

value of installed applications software at Federal

Government sites.

AVERAGE NUMBER OF SOFTWARE PROGRAMS INSTALLED

IN SELECTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

Program Type Average Number of Programs Installed

Systems Software Programs 261

Applications Software Programs 1,564

Utilities Software Programs 207

TOTAL 2,032

10.3%

13. 7%

18.6%

FIGURE G5
7-9

IDC was also able to obtain other software information

from Federal Government agencies.

1. An average of 405,000 bytes is required to run an

average software program. This amount reflects the

maximum amount of memory required to run an average

program.

2. An average of over 2,070 lines of code is the size of

most programs found at the Federal Government survey

sites

Other, more detailed information was also obtained with

regard to the average size of installed programs at ADP

installations. This data appears in Figure G6. Most

installed programs — nearly 31 percent — fall into the

"Very Small" range. "Large" and "Medium" program

installations follow, with 24 percent and 23 percent of the

total, respectively. These figures vary substantially from

the findings compiled in Program Quality and Programmer

Productivity by T.C. Jones of IBM. Jones's research

provides estimates of the distribution of programs by size

as measured by lines of code for all industries in the U.S.

market. These estimates show that 70 percent of the U.S.

population of programs fall into the "Very Small" category

versus 31 percent for the Federal Government sites

contacted. The largest size variance — 39 percentage

points — occurs in this size category. Installations of

"Small" programs in the ADP sites contacted, however, are

parallel to the total U.S. market: 15 percent and 20

percent respectively. While very few programs in the

"Medium" and "Large" category are installed in all

industries, over 47 percent of the ADP sites contacted have

programs installed in this size range. In addition,

virtually all of the ADP sites contacted mentioned that it

is rare to have programs in use within the "Very Large"

range. These Federal Government sites indicated that the

greatest portion of their software development does not

require such lengthy or complex programs.

Overall, use of medium- to large-scale programs are

spread relatively evenly in the ADP sites contacted, while

installations of programs in the U.S. market are more

heavily accented toward the smaller size ranges.
Size equivalents, in terms of lines of code, are as

follows

Program Size Lines of Code

Very Small Program Less than 2,000 lines of code

Small Program 2,000 to 16,000 lines of code

Medium Program 16,001 to 64,000 lines of code

Large Program 64,001 to 512,000 lines of code

Very Large Program Over 512,000 lines of code

AVERAGE DISTRIBUTION OF SIZE OF INSTALLED SOFTWARE PROGRAMS

WORLDWIDE AND IN SELECTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

Percent of Programs Installed

Program Size All Industries* Federal Government

Very Small 70.0% 30.5%

Small 20.0% 15,4%

Medium 6.0% 23.1%

Large 3.0% 24.2%

Very Large 1.0% 6.8%

TOTAL 100.0% 100.0%

*Source: T. C. Jones, Program Quality and Programmer

Productivity.

FIGURE G6
7-11

the average amount of

software program within

derived from several

1. Information gathered from Federal Government ADP sites

served as a basis for estimating these time allotments

for each program size.

2. Estimating techniques were used to supplement

information from discussions. Respondents could not

provide sufficient information to permit thorough

presentation of this data in the "Very Large" category,

since few of these Federal Government sites even

indicated the presence of such large programs.

Tn order to derive realistic time estimates for the

"Very Large" program size range, IDC combined information

gathered from survey sites with other data. This was the

only program size range that was estimated in this fashion —- time spent on other program sizes could be estimated

without supplemental information. The time estimated to be

spent on a program of this magnitude (105 weeks) is

considered to be a low but reasonable average. Well over 2

years could be spent on such a task.

Figure G7 also presents the average amount of time

spent for all industries, based on the IBM technical report

by T.C. Jones. The average amount of time spent in all

industries differs significantly from the average time spent

in the 30 Federal Government agencies. This, IDC believes,

is due to the high incidence of in-house software

development that takes place at Federal Government ADP

installations and the significant amount of time spent on

subsequent maintenance and enhancement of both

outside-acquired and in-house developed programs.

Figure G7 presents estimates of

time spent on developing an average

the given size ranges. This data is

sources
7-12

AVERAGE TIME SPENT ON SOFTWARE PROGRAMS

IN SELECTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

(Survey Data and Statistical Estimates)

Program Size

Very Small

Small

Medium

Large

Very Large

Average Amount of Time Spent

All Industries* Federal Government

1.8 months

2.9 months

4.5 months

9.0 months

16.0 months

1.9 months

7.4 months

11.2 months

17.2 months

26.3 months

*IBM Technical Report TR 02.764 - January 1977.

FIGURE G7

Federal Government sites also provided information

regarding the frequency of use of programming languages used

for in-house software development. This data appears in , Figure G8.

COBOL is by far the most popular programming language,

being used at 30 percent of the Federal Government sites

contacted in this study: FORTRAN and PL/1 follow, with 21

percent and 13 percent, respectively. Respondents indicate

that COBOL use is expected to increase. When Federal

Government data processing shops utilize more than one

language, including COBOL, COBOL usage dominates.

In Section Two of this report, IDC was able to obtain

information from the U.S. Computer Installation Data File

with respect to programming language use at Federal

Government ADP installations. According to the IDC Data

File, COBOL is the most frequently used of typical

programming languages - some 56 percent of the total. On

the other hand. Federal Government sites that were contacted

indicated that COBOL comprises only 30 percent of the total

programming language use. Despite this difference, COBOL is
7-13

still, by far, the primary programming language used in the

Federal Government. RPG use, however, differs substantially

in the two estimates. RPG is used 12 percent of the time,

according to the IDC Data File, while it is only used 3

percent of the time at the agencies visited. The difference

can be explained by the fact that the IDC Data File only

lists two programming languages per system - a primary and a secondary. ADP sites contacted, however, mentioned numerous

languages in operation that are included in Figure G8. The

use of more than two languages will affect the frequency and

the apparent mix of programming languages in use when

compared to information obtained from the IDC Data File.

TYPICAL PROGRAMMING LANGUAGES USED FOR IN-HOUSE

SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT IN SELECTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

Frequency of Mentions

Programming Language Number Percent

COBOL 27 30.0%

FORTRAN 19 21.2%

PL/1 12 13.3%

Basic 8 8.9%

Assembly 5 5.6%

Assembler 4 4.4%

Pascal 4 4.4%

RPG 3 3.3%

Others* 8 8.9%

TOTAL 90 100.0%

*Others include: APL, ALC, ALGOL, SPS, and MK-IV.

FIGURE G8
7-14

IDC also analyzed the phases of work performed for an

average software program in Federal Government locations.

This analysis traces the development of a typical program

from the initial phases of the requirements studies through

final operation and maintenance of the program. ADP sites

were asked to estimate the dollar expenditure for each

function. Time spent is presented as a percentage of the

total time allocated for the completion of a typical

program. The average time spent on a program, for the

purpose of this analysis, is approximately 30 weeks, as

indicated by Federal Government sites. The percentage

distribution of expenditures per function does not correlate

with the percentage distribution of time spent. This is

largely due to the use of different personnel skill levels

for the various phases. For example, several higher level

personnel may be retained to perform detailed design

functions. Also, the sites contacted indicate that much

time is spent on the detailed design function. This differs

from findings of other available research.

Both time allocations and dollar expenditures appear in

Figure G9. This figure represents allocations for a single,

average, software program.

In many instances, respondents indicated that

insufficient time is spent on requirements studies. These

agencies feel that this is the crucial step in the program

life-cycle, and that work performed in this phase is

instrumental in maintaining efficient program development.

If more time were spent in this phase, a more productive

flow of work would occur and less time would be required for

other functions. Substantial time allotment in this phase

will also typically preclude getting involved in programs

which are abandoned at the middle or end of the development

cycle.

Of particular interest is the operations and

maintenance phase of the software life cycle. The time and

dollars spent on this final function vary significantly.

Respondents spend anywhere from a few weeks to several years

on the operations and maintenance phase for a functional

program. Expenditures range from $2,000 to well over

$200,000 over the course of this operation.

Programs are going through constant revision,

maintenance, and enhancement, which take substantial time - and therefore money. During a discussion at one ADP
7-15

installation, individuals mentioned that a program was

developed several years ago to perform a specific task. By

continually upgrading and performing on-going maintenance to

this program, it remains "state of the art."

ANALYSIS OF THE AVERAGE SOFTWARE PROGRAM LIFE CYCLE

IN SELECTED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SITES

Phase Of Percentage Allocation Average

Program Life Cycle of Time Dollars Spent

Requirements Studies 20.0% $7,070

Preliminary Design 13.4% $7,245

Detailed Design 23.3% $12,820

Coding 23.3% $6,690

Debugging 10.0% $4,700

Testing 10.0% $4,740

TOTAL 100.0% $43,265

FIGURE G9

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1981 0-31(0-997/1805
NBS-n4A IREV. 2-8C) U.S. DEPT. OF COMM. BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA

SHEET (See instructions)

1. PUBLICATION OR

REPORT NO. NBS SP 500-79

2. Performing Organ. Report No. 3. Publication Date

August 1981

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE

Computer Science and Technology:

An Assessment and Forecast of ADP in the Federal Government

5. AUTHOR(S)

Martha Mulford Gray

6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION (If joint or other than NBS, see /n struct/on sj NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20234

9. SPONSORING ORGANIZATION NAME AND COMPLETE ADDRESS (Street, City. State, ZIP)

Same as above.

10. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 81-600094

Document describes a computer program; SF-185, FIPS Software Summary, is attached,

11. ABSTRACT (A 200-word or less factual summary of most significant information. If document includes a significant

bi bliography or literature survey, mention it here)

This report summarizes the findings of the International Data Corporation (IDC) on the current status of Federal ADP and projects ADP trends in the Federal

Government for 1979 through 1985. Hardware areas included are computers and related

peripheral equipment such as magnetic tape drives, disk drives, terminals, printers,

modems, multiplexers, and word processors. Other areas included are: an analysis

of programming languages; analysis of software spending; analysis of installation

workload by mode of operation and by application; implementation of data base

management systems; scope of contract services in the Federal Government; and the

state of software and software development in selected Federal installations.

7. Contract/Grant No.

8. Type of Report & Period Covered

Final

12. KEY WORDS (Six to twelve entries; alphabetical order; capitalize only proper names; and separate key words by semicolon s) data base management systems; Federal contracts services; Federal Government

computers; programming languages; software expenditures; software program life-cycle

analysis

13. AVAILABILITY

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rXI Order From Sup. of Doc, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC

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Order From National Technical Information Service (NTIS), Springfield, VA. 22161

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