# Appendix J
Model Performance EvaluationModel Performance Evaluation i The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007Model Performance Evaluation ii The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Table of Contents

Table of Contents.............................................................................................................. .............. ii List of Figures................................................................................................................ ................. ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................. ............... vii 1 Air Quality Modeling........................................................................................................ .......... 1 1.1 Air Quality Model Configuration ........................................................................................ 1 1.2 Secondary Organic Aerosols Modifications........................................................................ 2 2 Model Performance Statistics ................................................................................................. ..... 3 2.1 12km Domain Statistics – Selected Regions ....................................................................... 5 2.2 Metrolina Nonattainment Ar ea and Monitor Statistics........................................................ 6 3 Spatial Plots ............................................................................................................... ................. 8 4 Scatter Plots ............................................................................................................... ............... 40 4.1 12km Domain Scatter Plots – VISTAS/ASIP States Only................................................ 40 4.2 12km Domain Scatter Plots – North Carolina ................................................................... 46 4.3 12km Domain Scatter Pl ots – South Carolina ................................................................... 52 4.4 Metrolina Monitor Specific Scatter Plots .......................................................................... 58 5 Time Series ................................................................................................................. .............. 67 5.1 12 km Domain Time Series Pl ots – VISTAS/ASIP States Only....................................... 67 5.2 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – North Carolina .......................................................... 73 5.3 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – South Carolina .......................................................... 79 5.4 Metrolina Monitor Specific Time Series Plots .................................................................. 85



## List of Figures
Figure 1-1 CMAQ nested 12 km grid in the CMAQ 36 km grid. Lower left x, y of the 36 km grid is at -2736000, -20880000............................................................................................... 2 Figure 3-1 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 24, 2002 ..................................................................... 9 Figure 3-2 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 25, 2002 ................................................................... 10 Figure 3-3 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 26, 2002 ................................................................... 11 Figure 3-4 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 1, 2002 ..................................................................... 12 Figure 3-5 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 2, 2002 ..................................................................... 13 Figure 3-6 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 3, 2002 ..................................................................... 14 Figure 3-7 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 9, 2002 ..................................................................... 15 Figure 3-8 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 10, 2002 ................................................................... 16Model Performance Evaluation iii The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-9 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 11, 2002 ................................................................... 17 Figure 3-10 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 12, 2002 ................................................................... 18 Figure 3-11 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 13, 2002 ................................................................... 19 Figure 3-12 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 1, 2002 ...................................................................... 20 Figure 3-13 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 2, 2002 ...................................................................... 21 Figure 3-14 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 3, 2002 ...................................................................... 22 Figure 3-15 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 4, 2002 ...................................................................... 23 Figure 3-16 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 5, 2002 ...................................................................... 24 Figure 3-17 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 6, 2002 ...................................................................... 25 Figure 3-18 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 8, 2002 ...................................................................... 26 Figure 3-19 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 9, 2002 ...................................................................... 27 Figure 3-20 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 16, 2002 .................................................................... 28 Figure 3-21 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 17, 2002 .................................................................... 29 Figure 3-22 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 18, 2002 .................................................................... 30 Figure 3-23 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 21, 2002 .................................................................... 31 Figure 3-24 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 1, 2002 ................................................................. 32 Figure 3-25 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 2, 2002 ................................................................. 33 Figure 3-26 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 5, 2002 ................................................................. 34 Figure 3-27 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Pl ots For August 10, 2002 ............................................................... 35 Figure 3-28 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Pl ots For August 11, 2002 ............................................................... 36 Figure 3-29 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Pl ots For August 12, 2002 ............................................................... 37Model Performance Evaluation iv The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-30 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Pl ots For August 21, 2002 ............................................................... 38 Figure 3-31 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Pl ots For August 23, 2002 ............................................................... 39 Figure 4.1-1 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May.......................................................................................................... .. 41 Figure 4.1-2 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For June......................................................................................................... ... 42 Figure 4.1-3 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For July ......................................................................................................... ... 43 Figure 4.1-4 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For August ....................................................................................................... 44 Figure 4.1-5 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For September.................................................................................................. 45 Figure 4.2-1 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May ............................................................................................................................ ........... 47 Figure 4.2-2 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For June ........................................................................................................................... ............ 48 Figure 4.2-3 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For July........................................................................................................................... ............. 49 Figure 4.2-4 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For August ......................................................................................................................... .......... 50 Figure 4.2-5 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 51 Figure 4.3-1 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May ............................................................................................................................ ........... 53 Figure 4.3-2 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For June ........................................................................................................................... ............ 54 Figure 4.3-3 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For July........................................................................................................................... ............. 55 Figure 4.3-4 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For August ......................................................................................................................... .......... 56 Figure 4.3-5 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 57 Figure 4.4-1 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 59 Figure 4.4-2 County Line 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 60 Figure 4.4-3 Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 61 Figure 4.4-4 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 62Model Performance Evaluation v The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.4-5 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 63 Figure 4.4-6 Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 64 Figure 4.4-7 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 65 Figure 4.4-8 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through September ...................................................................................................................... ....... 66 Figure 5.1-1 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May ................................................................................................... 68 Figure 5.1-2 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June ................................................................................................... 69 Figure 5.1-3 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July .................................................................................................... 7 0 Figure 5.1-4 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August ............................................................................................... 71 Figure 5.1-5 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP Stat es Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September.......................................................................................... 72 Figure 5.2-1 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May.................................................................................................................. ...... 74 Figure 5.2-2 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June................................................................................................................. ....... 75 Figure 5.2-3 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July ................................................................................................................. ....... 76 Figure 5.2-4 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August ............................................................................................................... .... 77 Figure 5.2-5 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September............................................................................................................ .. 78 Figure 5.3-1 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May.................................................................................................................. ...... 80 Figure 5.3-2 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June................................................................................................................. ....... 81 Figure 5.3-3 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July ................................................................................................................. ....... 82 Figure 5.3-4 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August ............................................................................................................... .... 83 Figure 5.3-5 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September............................................................................................................ .. 84 Figure 5.4.1-1 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May .......... 86 Figure 5.4.1-2 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June .......... 87 Figure 5.4.1-3 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July........... 88 Figure 5.4.1-4 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August...... 89Model Performance Evaluation vi The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.4.1-5 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For September 90 Figure 5.4.2-1 County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May....... 91 Figure 5.4.2-2 County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ti me Series Plots For June....... 92 Figure 5.4.2-3 County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July ....... 93 Figure 5.4.2-4 County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August .. 94 Figure 5.4.2-5 County Line1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September

............................................................................................................................... ................ 95 Figure 5.4.3-1 Crouse 1-hour (t op) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May ............... 96 Figure 5.4.3-2 Crouse 1-hour (t op) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June ............... 97 Figure 5.4.3-3 Crouse 1-hour (t op) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July................ 98 Figure 5.4.3-4 Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August ........... 99 Figure 5.4.3-5 Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September.... 100 Figure 5.4.4-1 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May ....... 101 Figure 5.4.4-2 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June ....... 102 Figure 5.4.4-3 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July........ 103 Figure 5.4.4-4 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August ... 104 Figure 5.4.4-5 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September

............................................................................................................................... .............. 105 Figure 5.4.5-1 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May .......... 106 Figure 5.4.5-2 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June .......... 107 Figure 5.4.5-3 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July ........... 108 Figure 5.4.5-4 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August ...... 109 Figure 5.4.5-5 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For September. 110 Figure 5.4.6-1 Monroe 1-hour (t op) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May............ 111 Figure 5.4.6-2 Monroe 1-hour (t op) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June............ 112 Figure 5.4.6-3 Monroe 1-hour (t op) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July............. 113 Figure 5.4.6-4 Monroe 1-hour (t op) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August........ 114 Figure 5.4.6-5 Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September .. 115 Figure 5.4.7-1 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May ......... 116 Figure 5.4.7-2 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June ......... 117 Figure 5.4.7-3 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July.......... 118 Figure 5.4.7-4 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August ..... 119 Figure 5.4.7-5 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour ( bottom) Time Series Plots For September 120 Figure 5.4.8-1 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For May.......... 121 Figure 5.4.8-2 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For June.......... 122 Figure 5.4.8-3 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For July .......... 123 Figure 5.4.8-4 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For August ..... 124 Figure 5.4.8-5 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September 125Model Performance Evaluation vii The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## List of Tables
Table 1-1 VISTAS/ASIP Phase II Initial CMAQ Model Configuration....................................... 1 Table 2-1 Statistical Metric Calculations..................................................................................... .. 4 Table 2.1-1 12km Domain Model Statistics for 1-Hour Ozone..................................................... 5 Table 2.1-2 12km Domain Model Statistics for 8-Hour Ozone..................................................... 5 Table 2.1-2 12km Domain Model Statistics for 8-Hour Ozone..................................................... 6 Table 2.2-1 Metrolina Region and Mon itor Statistics for 1-Hour Ozone...................................... 7 Table 2.2-2 Metrolina Region and Mon itor Statistics for 8-Hour Ozone...................................... 7Model Performance Evaluation 1 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## 1 Air Quality Modeling
The air quality modeling for the Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-hour ozone nonattainment area (referred to as the Metrolina area) was performed in conjunction with the regional haze modeling being done by the South east Regional Planning Organization, Visibility Improvement State and Tribal Association of th e Southeast (VISTAS) and the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone modeling being done by the Association of Southeastern Integrated Planning (ASIP). VISTAS and ASIP are run by the ten Southeast states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, S outh Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia. Since the regional haze and PM2.5 modeling uses annual simulations and includes an intermediate year that is the attainment year required for the Metrolina nonattainment area, the North Carolina Division of Air Quality (NCDAQ) decided to use the this modeling for its attainment demonstration.

1.1 Air Quality Model Configuration
This air quality modeling system used in this State Implementation Plan (SIP) modeling exercise was the US Environmental Protection Agency’s (USEPA’s) Models-3/ Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ). The configuration of the CMAQ modeling system was chosen based on the results of the model sensitivity testing performed in Phase I of the VISTAS/ASIP regional haze, fine particulate, and ozone modeling efforts. This configuration of options is identical to those used in Phase II of the VISTAS/ASIP projects. The Phase II CMAQ configuration is presented in Table 1-1. The 36/12 kilometer (km) horizontal and vertical grid system used in the VISTAS/ASIP Phase II modeling is displayed in Figure 1-1.

Table 1-1 VISTAS/ASIP Phase II Initial CMAQ Model Configuration.
Model Option Phase II CMAQ Configuration Model Version Version 4.5 (September 2003) Horizontal Resolution 36/12 km No. Vertical Layers NZ = 19 Horizontal Advection PPM Vertical Advection PPM Horizontal Diffusion Spatially Varying Vertical Diffusion K V (Eddy Diffusion) Minimum Vertical Diffusivity 1.0 m 2 /s MM5 Configuration Pleim-Xiu/ACM No linkage of 5-day run segments MM5 Processing MCIP2.2 Pass Through Gas-Phase Chemistry CB4 Gas-Phase Chemistry Solver MEBI Secondary Organic Aerosol SORGAM Aqueous-Phase Chemistry RADM Aerosol Chemistry AE3/ISORROPIA Dry Deposition Pleim-Xiu Plume-in-Grid Off Initial Concentrations Default with 13-15 day spin-up Boundary Conditions 2001 Seasonal GEOS-CHEM Emissions 2002 EmissionsModel Performance Evaluation 2 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 1-1 CMAQ nested 12 km grid in the CMAQ 36 km grid. Lower left x, y of the 36 km grid is at -2736000, -20880000

1.2 Secondary Organic Aerosols Modifications
As a part of the Phase II modeling project, th e VISTAS/ASIP air quality modeling contractors developed modifications to the Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA) subroutines inside of the CMAQ modeling system to improve modeled particulate matter and visibility performance. Since the modeling activities in this SIP exercise took a “one atmosphere” approach identical to that of VISTAS/ASIP, the CMAQ SOA modifica tions are included as part of this ozone modeling.Model Performance Evaluation 3 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## 2 Model Performance Statistics
To quantify model performance, several statistical measures were calculated and evaluated for the VISTAS/ASIP states combined, for North Carolina, for South Carolina, and individually for each of the Metrolina area ozone monitors. The statistical measures selected were based on the recommendations outlined in section 18.4.1 of the USEPA’s Guidance On The Use Of Models And Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainme nt of Air Quality Goals for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze (“ Attainment Guidance ”).

The statistical measures were calculated for both 1-hour and 8-hour ozone concentrations and based only on the respective portion of the 12km modeling domain. A customary 60 parts per billion (ppb) cutoff threshold was applied in the statistical calculations. This cutoff threshold prevents very low ozone concentrations from being included in the model performance statistics and generally prevents a widely known overnight over prediction of minimal ozone concentrations from biasing the performance evaluation of the modeling when ozone concentrations are much higher and of the most concern.

For convenience, these statistical measures or metrics along with a variety of additional statistical measures are summarized in Table 2-1.Model Performance Evaluation 4 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Table 2-1 Statistical Metric Calculations Statistical Measure Shorthand Notation Mathematical Expression Notes

Accuracy of Paired Peak A p

peak peak O O P

−

Coefficient of Determination R 2 

# ( ) 

# ( )
∑ ∑ ∑

= = =



### − − ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− −

N

i N

i i i N

i i i



### O O P P O O P P

1 1 2 2 2

1 

### ) ( ) ( P i = prediction at time and location i; O i = observation at time and location i; P = arithmetic average of P i , i = 1, 2, . . ., N; O = arithmetic average of O i , i = 1, 2, . . ., N; Normalized Mean Error NME



## ∑ ∑

=

= −

N

i i N

i i i

O O P

1 1 Reported as %

Root Mean Square Error RMSE 

## ( ) 2 1

1 2 1 ⎥ ⎦ ⎤ ⎢ ⎣ ⎡

− 

## ∑

= N

i i i O P N Reported as %

Fractional Gross Error FError 

## ∑

= + − N

i i i i i O P O P
N 1 2 Reported as %

Mean Absolute Gross Error MAGE 

# ∑

= − N

i i i O P N 1 1

Mean Normalized Gross Error MNGE 

# ∑

= − N

i i i i O O P
N 1 1 Reported as %

Mean Biased MB 

## ( ) 

# ∑

= − N

i i i O P N 1 1 Reported as concentration

Mean Normalized Bias MNB 

## ( ) 

## ∑

= − N

i i i i O O P
N 1 1 Reported as %

Mean Fractionalized Bias (Fractional Bias) MFB 

## ∑

= ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛

+ − N

i i i i i O P O P
N 1 2 Reported as %

Normalized Mean Bias NMB 

## ( )


# ∑ ∑

=

= −

N

i i N

i i i

O O P

1 1 Reported as %

Bias Factor BF 

## ∑

= ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ N

i i i O P
N 1 1 Reported as BF:1 or 1:BF or in fractional notation (BF/1 or 1/BF)Model Performance Evaluation 5 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 2.1 12km Domain Statistics – Selected Regions
The statistical data calculated for the VISTAS/ASIP region, the North Carolina, and the South Carolina portions of the 12-km domain are pres ented in Tables 2.1-1 for 1-hour ozone and Table 2.1-2 for 8-hour ozone. On the whole, all of the statistical measures or metrics were within generally accepted ranges for mean bias, mean normalized bias, and mean normalized gross error. There was a slight under predicti on of 1-hour and 8-hour ozone concentrations. This under prediction was noted in all months and across the VISTAS/ASIP states as a whole and also individually across North Carolina and across South Carolina. The most noted under prediction of ozone was contained in the months of August and September. In these months, the mean normalized bias fell slightly below the suggested range of ± 5-15 percent. The NCDAQ does not believe this slight under prediction for August and September impacts the overall results for this SIP modeling exercise. In all cases, the mean normalized gross error was significantly below the 30-35 percent range at the 60 ppb threshold for all regions. These 1-hour and 8-hour statistical metrics were used as a first screening of the model performance.

Table 2.1-1 12km Domain Model Statistics for 1-Hour Ozone

Region / Month Modeled Mean (ppb) Observed Mean (ppb) Mean Bias (ppb) Mean Normalized Bias (%) Mean Normalized Gross Error (%)

May 62.54 69.08 -6.53 -8.92 13.64 June 63.75 73.45 -9.7 -12.67 15.81 July 64.20 73.70 -9.5 -12.16 16.70 August 62.95 75.35 -12.4 -15.78 18.49 September 62.19 74.68 -12.49 -16.20 18.52 Mean (May-Sept) 63.13 73.25 -10.12 -13.15 16.63

May 64.68 70.24 -5.56 -7.53 12.74 June 63.65 74.39 -10.74 -13.97 15.89 July 64.54 75.51 -10.97 -13.71 16.61 August 62.34 76.92 -14.59 -18.24 19.59 September 59.83 71.64 -11.81 -16.08 18.10 Mean (May-Sept) 63.01 73.74 -10.73 -13.91 16.59

May 64.39 69.37 -4.98 -6.72 11.69 June 62.99 73.33 -10.34 -13.36 15.33 July 61.61 72.73 -11.12 -14.54 16.72 August 61.05 74.13 -13.08 -17.20 18.34 September 62.23 75.24 -13.01 -16.69 18.34 Mean (May-Sept) 62.45 72.96 -10.51 -13.70 16.08 12km ASIP States Combined

North Carolina

South Carolina 1-Hour Model Performance Statistics (BaseG2A - 60 ppb Cutoff)Model Performance Evaluation 6 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Table 2.1-2 12km Domain Model Statistics for 8-Hour Ozone

2.2 Metrolina Nonattainment Area and Monitor Statistics
As a further exploration of modeling performance, specifically in the Metrolina region, similar 1 hour (Table 2.2-1) and 8-hour (Table 2.2-2) statistical measures were calculated for the region as a whole and for each of the ozone monitors in this region. In just the Metrolina region, the mean bias, mean normalized bias, and mean normalized gross error were all within recommended and accepted ranges. A slight unde r prediction of 1-hour and 8-hour ozone was also observed at this more refined level of analysis and was similar to what was seen at the larger state and VISTAS/ASIP region levels. Individual monthly statistics are not presented here due to the very limited number of modeled and observed data pairs at just the eight Metrolina ozone monitoring sites. Whole season statistics were more representative of how this air quality modeling will be applied in the modeled attainment test discussed in Appendix L. Across the whole season, the Metrolina region as a whole and all of the ozone monitoring sites had mean normalized bias statistics in the suggested ± 5-15 percent range and mean normalized gross error statistics in the suggested 30-35 percent range given a 60 ppb threshold. Region / Month Modeled Mean (ppb) Observed Mean (ppb) Mean Bias (ppb) Mean Normalized Bias (%) Mean Normalized Gross Error (%)

May 61.26 67.69 -6.44 -8.96 12.47 June 62.62 70.99 -8.37 -11.37 14.02 July 62.73 70.85 -8.12 -10.90 14.74 August 61.33 72.57 -11.24 -14.92 16.98 September 60.81 71.98 -11.17 -14.98 17.07 Mean (May-Sept) 61.75 70.82 -9.07 -12.23 15.06

May 64.06 69.05 -5 -6.86 10.76 June 62.21 71.82 -9.62 -13.03 14.47 July 62.94 72.10 -9.16 -12.09 14.63 August 60.60 73.92 -13.33 -17.40 18.34 September 57.90 69.37 -11.46 -16.11 17.68 Mean (May-Sept) 61.54 71.25 -9.71 -13.10 15.18

May 63.87 67.71 -3.85 -5.31 9.66 June 61.95 70.92 -8.97 -12.10 13.52 July 60.89 70.24 -9.35 -12.73 14.75 August 59.77 71.39 -11.62 -16.03 16.64 September 61.18 72.62 -11.44 -15.22 16.32 Mean (May-Sept) 61.53 70.58 -9.05 -12.28 14.18 North Carolina

South Carolina 12km ASIP States Combined 8-Hour Model Performance Statistics (BaseG2A - 60 ppb Cutoff)Model Performance Evaluation 7 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Table 2.2-1 Metrolina Region and Monitor Statistics for 1-Hour Ozone

Table 2.2-2 Metrolina Region and Monitor Statistics for 8-Hour Ozone

Monitor Site AIRS ID Modeled Mean (ppb) Observed Mean (ppb) Mean Bias (ppb) Mean Normalized Bias (%) Mean Normalized Gross Error (%) Metrolina Region 65.25 73.50 -8.000 -10.346 13.388 Crouse 37-109-0004 69.0 73.0 -4.0 -5.269 9.860 Garinger 37-119-0041 63.0 74.0 -11.0 -14.249 15.940
Arrowood 37-119-1005 67.0 72.0 -5.0 -5.793 12.300 County Line 37-119-1009 67.0 74.0 -7.0 -8.837 11.894
Rockwell 37-159-0021 65.0 74.0 -9.0 -11.643 13.495
Enochville 37-159-0022 65.0 75.0 -9.0 -11.933 13.774
Monroe 37-179-0003 62.0 73.0 -10.0 -13.721 15.371 York, SC 45-091-0006 64.0 73.0 -9.0 -11.326 14.472 8-Hour Model Performance Statistics (BaseG2A - 60 ppb Cutoff) Monitor Site AIRS ID Modeled Mean (ppb) Observed Mean (ppb) Mean Bias (ppb) Mean Normalized Bias (%) Mean Normalized Gross Error (%) Metrolina Region 66.875 75.75 -8.75 -10.716 15.035 Crouse 37-109-0004 69.0 76.0 -6.0 -7.232 12.050 Garinger 37-119-0041 66.0 76.0 -11.0 -13.777 17.861
Arrowood 37-119-1005 69.0 74.0 -5.0 -5.872 14.354 County Line 37-119-1009 69.0 77.0 -8.0 -9.248 13.835
Rockwell 37-159-0021 66.0 76.0 -10.0 -12.223 14.812
Enochville 37-159-0022 68.0 77.0 -9.0 -11.230 14.767
Monroe 37-179-0003 63.0 75.0 -12.0 -14.677 17.048 York, SC 45-091-0006 65.0 75.0 -9.0 -11.471 15.549 1-Hour Model Performance Statistics (BaseG2A - 60 ppb Cutoff)Model Performance Evaluation 8 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## 3 Spatial Plots
The 12km domain spatial plots of modeled 1-hour and 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for 2002, with the actual ozone observations overlaid are presented in this section. These plots are magnified or zoomed with respect to North Carolina. Only the days used in calculating the relative reduction factor (RRF) calculation at the Metrolina monitoring sites are presented here. The first plot on the page is the 1-hour maximum ozone, followed by the 8-hour maximum ozone plot. The color scale moves from lower concentrations in shade of blue to warmer colors for higher ozone concentrations. The scale loosely approximated the Air Quality Index (AQI) color scale for the 8-hour standard but was set to best demonstrate the gradient of ozone across North Carolina and Northern South Carolina, and to best highlight the range of observed ozone concentrations.

Overall, the air quality model does well with the spatial extent of the higher ozone concentrations. The model does slightly under-predict the 1-hour max and 8-hour max ozone concentration, as was seen in the model performance statistic earlier in this Appendix. The plots show North Carolina and South Carolina’s higher ozone concentrations generally coincide with the major urbanized areas and with the major highways running through the states. The urban core of the city of Charlotte, North Carolina is well represented in the air quality model. This is important as the highest monitoring values occur at the urban sites (i.e. Garinger, County Line, and Enochville).Model Performance Evaluation 9 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-1 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 24, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 10 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-2 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 25, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 11 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-3 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For May 26, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 12 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-4 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 1, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 13 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-5 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 2, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 14 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-6 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 3, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 15 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-7 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 9, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 16 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-8 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 10, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 17 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-9 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 11, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 18 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-10 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 12, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 19 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-11 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For June 13, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 20 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-12 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 1, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 21 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-13 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 2, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 22 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-14 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 3, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 23 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-15 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 4, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 24 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-16 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 5, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 25 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-17 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 6, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 26 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-18 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 8, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 27 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-19 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 9, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 28 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-20 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 16, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 29 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-21 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 17, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 30 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-22 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 18, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 31 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-23 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For July 21, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 32 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-24 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 1, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 33 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-25 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 2, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 34 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-26 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 5, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 35 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-27 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 10, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 36 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-28 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 11, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 37 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-29 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 12, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 38 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-30 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 21, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 39 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 3-31 Modeled Predicted And Observed Peak 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Ozone Concentrations Spatial Plots For August 23, 2002Model Performance Evaluation 40 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## 4 Scatter Plots
Scatter plots of modeled predicted daily maximum ozone versus observed daily maximum ozone are presented in this section. There are scatter plots for both 1-hour and 8-hour ozone concentrations. As with the previous model performance statistics, scatter plots were created for the VISTAS/ASIP region of the 12km modeling domain, for North Carolina, for South Carolina, and individually for each of the ozone monitors in the Metrolina region. At the VISTAS/ASIP regional and the two individual state levels, monthly scatter plots are presented across the entire summer season of May through September. For the individual ozone monitoring sites, only the scatter plots for the entire summer season are displayed due to the limited nature of the dataset.

On each page, the top image is the 1-hour daily maximum ozone scatter plot and the bottom image is the 8-hour daily maximum ozone scatter plot for the respective month or season and the respective region or monitoring site.

4.1 12km Domain Scatter Plots – VISTAS/ASIP States Only
From the whole VISTAS/ASIP region perspective, thousands of data points are presented in the 1-hour and 8-hour ozone scatter plots (Figure 4. 1-1 through Figure 4.1-5). These data points include modeled and observed ozone concentrations at numerous urban, suburban, and rural ozone monitoring sites. Across this 10 state VI STAS/ASIP region, there are a greater frequency of urban and suburban sites represented in these scatter plots. Even with such a wide variety of monitoring site locations, the model and observed values tend to correlated reasonable well, as most of the data points are clustered along the 1:1 line across the full range of data. The under prediction of observed ozone concentrations prev iously discussed in this Appendix is most notable in these scatter plots when observed ozone concentrations are in excess of 120 ppb.

There are not any systematic abnormalities found in either the 1-hour or 8-hour scatter plots for the VISTAS/ASIP region of the 12km modeling domain. This confirms the acceptable model performance statistics presented earlier in this Appendix.Model Performance Evaluation 41 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.1-1 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 42 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.1-2 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 43 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.1-3 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 44 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.1-4 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 45 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.1-5 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 46 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 4.2 12km Domain Scatter Plots – North Carolina
The 1-hour and 8-hour ozone scatter plots for just North Carolina are presented in this subsection. The North Carolina scatter plots for May through September are found in Figure 4.2-1 through Figure 4.2-5 on the following pages. There is a good mixture of urban, suburban, and rural ozone monitoring sites contained in these scatter plots. With this heterogeneous mixture of sites, the model and observed values are well correlated and tightly clustered along the 1:1 line across the majority of the data pairs. Under predictions of observed ozone can be seen when observed ozone concentrations are greater than 100 ppb and are most notable in the few cases that observed ozone surpasses 120 ppb.

There are not any systematic abnormalities found in either the 1-hour or 8-hour scatter plots for the North Carolina portion of the 12km modeling domain. This further confirms the reasonable model performance statistics presented earlier in this Appendix.Model Performance Evaluation 47 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.2-1 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 48 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.2-2 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 49 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.2-3 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 50 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.2-4 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 51 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.2-5 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 52 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 4.3 12km Domain Scatter Plots – South Carolina
The 1-hour and 8-hour ozone scatter plots for just South Carolina are presented in this subsection. The South Carolina scatter plots for May through September are found on the following pages (Figure 4.3-1 through Figure 4.3- 5). South Carolina has a slightly higher frequency of suburban and rural ozone monitoring sites. Even with a lower frequency of urban ozone monitoring sites than across the VISTAS/ASIP region or across North Carolina, these scatter plots continue to demonstrate very reasonable correlations between model and observed ozone concentrations. Under predictions of observed ozone can be seen when observed ozone concentrations are at the higher end of the scal e, but there are relatively few observations of ozone that surpass 120 ppb where more notable under predictions were seen in the previous VISTAS/ASIP and North Carolina regional scatter plots.

There are not any systematic abnormalities found in either the 1-hour or 8-hour scatter plots for the South Carolina portion of the 12km modeling domain. This further confirms the reasonable model performance statistics presented earlier in this Appendix.Model Performance Evaluation 53 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.3-1 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 54 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.3-2 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 55 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.3-3 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 56 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.3-4 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 57 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 4.3-5 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 58 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 4.4 Metrolina Monitor Specific Scatter Plots
The 1-hour and 8-hour ozone scatter plots for the individual ozone monitoring sites in the Metrolina region are presented in this subsection. The Metrolina monitor specific scatter plots for the entire summer season of May through September are found in Figure 4.4-1 through Figure 4.4-8 on the following pages. Of these 8 monitoring sites, the majority of the sites are either urban or suburban. With a more urbanized observed dataset, the respective monitor scatter plots show excellent correlation of model and observed ozone concentrations across the entire range of data. Under predictions of higher observed ozone concentrations can still be seen in these scatter plots, but these under predictions are significantly less notable than in any of the previous 1-hour or 8-hour ozone scatter plots presented in this section.

There are not any systematic abnormalities found in either the 1-hour or 8-hour scatter plots for the individual ozone monitoring sites in the Metrolina region. This is a strong indication that the model performance statistics presented earlier in this Appendix are sound and that these modeling results are appropriate for further use in the modeled attainment test.Model Performance Evaluation 59 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Arrowood AIRS ID: 37-119-1005

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Arrowood AIRS ID: 37-119-1005

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure 4.4-1 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 60 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: County Line AIRS ID: 37-119-1009

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: County Line AIRS ID: 37-119-1009

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure 4.4-2 County Line 1-hour (top) A nd 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 61 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Crouse AIRS ID: 37-109-0004

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Crouse AIRS ID: 37-109-0004

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure 4.4-3 Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 62 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Garinger AIRS ID: 37-119-0041

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Garinger AIRS ID: 37-119-0041

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure 4.4-4 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 63 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Enochville AIRS ID: 37-159-0022

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Enochville AIRS ID: 37-159-0022

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure 4.4-5 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 64 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Monroe AIRS ID: 37-179-0003

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Monroe AIRS ID: 37-179-0003

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure 4.4-6 Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 65 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Rockwell AIRS ID: 37-159-0021

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: Rockwell AIRS ID: 37-159-0021

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure 4.4-7 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 66 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 1-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: York, SC AIRS ID: 45-091-0006

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

8-hour Ozone Scatter Plot - Site: York, SC AIRS ID: 45-091-0006

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 Observed Ozone (PPM)Modeled Ozone (PPM)

Figure 4.4-8 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Scatter Plots For May Through SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 67 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## 5 Time Series
The time series plots of hourly model predicted ozone (green line) and hourly observed ozone (black stars) are presented in this section. There are time series plots for both 1-hour and 8-hour ozone concentrations for each of the months from May through September. Time series plots were created for the VISTAS/ASIP region of the 12km modeling domain, for North Carolina, for South Carolina, and individually for each of the ozone monitors in the Metrolina region.

On each page, the 1-hour ozone time series plot is presented first (top) and the 8-hour ozone time series plots is present second (bottom) for the respective month and the respective region or monitoring site.

5.1 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – VISTAS/ASIP States Only
Overall the air quality model does an excellent job at capturing the diurnal pattern for both 1- hour and 8-hour ozone (Figure 5.1-1 through Figure 5.1-5). The model tends to over predict the minimum ozone values over the course of the May through September time frame, but this is expected given the well known issue of air quality models generally not capturing the absolute overnight ozone minimums very well. This overni ght over prediction of ozone is not expected to cause any issues with the application of the modeled attainment test as these lower ozone concentrations are not considered in this test. There is a slight under prediction of peak ozone values once you reach the core of the ozone season (June, July, and August). Despite this slight under prediction of the ozone peaks, several high ozone episodes and the subsequent clean out events are well captured by the modeling. This is a good indication that both the meteorological and air quality models are representing the large synoptic weather and air quality patterns well throughout the duration of this summer season.Model Performance Evaluation 68 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.1-1 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 69 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.1-2 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 70 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.1-3 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 71 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.1-4 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 72 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.1-5 12km Domain – VISTAS/ASIP States Only 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 73 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 5.2 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – North Carolina
From just the North Carolina perspective, the air quality model continues to do an excellent job at capturing the diurnal pattern for both 1-hour a nd 8-hour ozone (Figures 5.2-1 through 5.2-5). As with the VISTAS/ASIP region, the model under predicts the peak ozone values at times throughout the summer season as well as the overnight over prediction issue previously discussed. In particular, a portion of the mont h of May and the last few days of August and September show a more notable under prediction of the afternoon peak ozone concentrations. Overall, the air quality model continues to capture the various synoptic weather and air quality cycles quite well and is within acceptable tolerances for model performance.Model Performance Evaluation 74 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.2-1 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 75 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.2-2 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 76 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.2-3 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 77 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.2-4 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 78 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.2-5 12km Domain – North Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 79 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 5.3 12 km Domain Time Series Plots – South Carolina
For South Carolina, the air quality model does an excellent job at capturing the diurnal pattern for both 1-hour and 8-hour ozone (Figures 5.3-1 through 5.3-5). The model under predicts the peak ozone values at times throughout the summer season as well as the overnight over prediction issue previously discussed. As with the North Carolina time series analysis, a portion of the month of May and the last few days of August and September show a more notable under prediction of the afternoon peak ozone concentrations. Overall, the air quality model continues to capture the various synoptic weather and air quality cycles quite well and is within acceptable tolerances for model performance.Model Performance Evaluation 80 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.3-1 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 81 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.3-2 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 82 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.3-3 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 83 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.3-4 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 84 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 Figure 5.3-5 12km Domain – South Carolina 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 85 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 5.4 Metrolina Monitor Specific Time Series Plots
Finally, the time series for the individual ozone monitoring sites in the Metrolina region are present in Figures 5.4.1-1 through 5.4.8-5 on the following pages. There are 8 monitoring sites with 5 months presented for a total of 40 pages of 1-hour and 8-hour times series

As with the larger domain time series plots and analyses presented earlier in this section, the air quality model tends to slightly under predict peak 1-hour and 8-hour ozone values. The over prediction of the nighttime minimum issue is more noticeable in the individual monitoring site time series, especially this more urbanized collection of sites due to the higher night time nitrogen oxide (NOx) environment found in such a metropolitan region. The NOx emissions titrate the ozone after sunset and the ozone levels decrease dramatically. The air quality model does not replicate this type of phenomenon very well. Again, the nighttime minimum over prediction is not an issue with respect to the modeled attainment test and is not of significant concern in this modeling exercise. The ability of the air quality model to very accurately capture the synoptic cycles from high ozone episodes to very clean periods is best demonstrated in these individual monitor time series. Based on all of the data presented in these time series plots, NCDAQ concludes that the air quality modeling continues to meet all requirements for further application in the modeled attainment test.Model Performance Evaluation 86 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005) Month: May

Figure 5.4.1-1 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 87 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005) Month: June

Figure 5.4.1-2 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 88 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005) Month: July

Figure 5.4.1-3 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 89 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005) Month: August

Figure 5.4.1-4 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 90 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Arrowood (37-119-1005) Month: September

Figure 5.4.1-5 Arrowood 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 91 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009) Month: May

Figure 5.4.2-1 County Line 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 92 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009) Month: June

Figure 5.4.2-2 County Line 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 93 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009) Month: July

Figure 5.4.2-3 County Line 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 94 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009) Month: August

Figure 5.4.2-4 County Line 1-hour (top) A nd 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 95 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: County Line (37-119-1009) Month: September

Figure 5.4.2-5 County Line1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 96 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004) Month: May

Figure 5.4.3-1 Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 97 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004) Month: June

Figure 5.4.3-2 Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 98 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004) Month: July

Figure 5.4.3-3 Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 99 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004) Month: August

Figure 5.4.3-4 Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 100 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Crouse (37-109-0004) Month: September

Figure 5.4.3-5 Crouse 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 101 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022) Month: May

Figure 5.4.4-1 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 102 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022) Month: June

Figure 5.4.4-2 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 103 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022) Month: July

Figure 5.4.4-3 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 104 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022) Month: August

Figure 5.4.4-4 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 105 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Enochville (37-159-0022) Month: September

Figure 5.4.4-5 Enochville 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 106 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041) Month: May

Figure 5.4.5-1 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 107 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041) Month: June

Figure 5.4.5-2 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 108 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041) Month: July

Figure 5.4.5-3 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 109 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041) Month: August

Figure 5.4.5-4 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 110 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Garinger (37-119-0041) Month: September

Figure 5.4.5-5 Garinger 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 111 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003) Month: May

Figure 5.4.6-1 Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 112 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003) Month: June

Figure 5.4.6-2 Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 113 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003) Month: July

Figure 5.4.6-3 Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 114 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003) Month: August

Figure 5.4.6-4 Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 115 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Monroe (37-179-0003) Month: September

Figure 5.4.6-5 Monroe 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 116 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021) Month: May

Figure 5.4.7-1 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 117 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021) Month: June

Figure 5.4.7-2 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 118 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021) Month: July

Figure 5.4.7-3 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 119 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021) Month: August

Figure 5.4.7-4 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 120 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: Rockwell (37-159-0021) Month: September

Figure 5.4.7-5 Rockwell 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For SeptemberModel Performance Evaluation 121 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006) Month: May

Figure 5.4.8-1 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For MayModel Performance Evaluation 122 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006) Month: June

Figure 5.4.8-2 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JuneModel Performance Evaluation 123 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006) Month: July

Figure 5.4.8-3 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8- hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For JulyModel Performance Evaluation 124 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006) Month: August

Figure 5.4.8-4 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-ho ur (bottom) Time Series Plots For AugustModel Performance Evaluation 125 The Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8-Hour Ozone Appendix J North Carolina Attainment Demonstration June 15, 2007 

## Monitor: York, SC (45-091-0006) Month: September

Figure 5.4.8-5 York, SC 1-hour (top) And 8-hour (bottom) Time Series Plots For September