NISTIR 85-3273-26 

(Rev. 9/11)

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for 

Life-Cycle Cost Analysis – 2011 

Annual Supplement to Amy S. Rushing 

NIST Handbook 135 and Joshua D. Kneifel 

NBS Special Publication 709 Barbara C. Lippiatt 

 

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Technology Administration

National Institute of Standards

and Technology

Prepared for

United States Department of Energy

Federal Energy Management Program

April 2005 September 2011 

 

ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS 

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 

Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709 

April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A; 

and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings, 

Title 10, CFR, Part 435 

Amy S. Rushing 

Joshua D. Kneifel 

Barbara C. Lippiatt

Sponsored by: 

U.S. Department of Energy 

Federal Energy Management Program 

Washington, DC 20585 

September 2011 

U.S. Department of Commerce

Rebecca M. Blank, Acting Secretary

 

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Patrick D. Gallagher, Under Secretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology

 and Director

U.S. Department of Commerce 

Technology Administration 

National Institute of Standards and Technology 

Applied Economics Office 

Engineering Laboratory 

Gaithersburg, MD 20899 

NISTIR 85-3273-26

iii

ABSTRACT 

This is the 2011 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost 

analyses of energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in federal facilities. It will 

be effective from April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012. This publication supports the federal life-cycle 

costing methodology described in 10 CFR 436A and OMB Circular A-94 by updating the energy 

price projections and discount factors that are described, explained, and illustrated in NIST 

Handbook 135 (HB 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program.) 

It supports private-sector life-cycle cost analysis by updating the energy price indices that are 

described, explained, and illustrated in NBS Special Publication 709 (SP 709). 

Disclaimer:

Certain trade names or company products are mentioned in the text to specify adequately the 

software and operating systems used for performing the life-cycle cost analyses. In no case does 

such identification imply recommendation or endorsement by the National Institute of Standards 

and Technology, nor does it imply that the software and operating systems are the best available 

for the purpose. 
iv

PREFACE 

This is the 2011 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the 

Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP). The annual supplement provides energy price indices 

and discount factors for use with the Federal Energy Management Program's procedures for lifecycle cost analysis, as established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in Subpart A of Part 436 

of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 436A), and amplified in NIST Handbook 

135. These indices and factors are provided as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of 

potential energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in existing and new 

federally owned and leased buildings. 

The price indices and discount factors are calculated with the most recent energy price projections 

from DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the most recent discount rates from 

FEMP and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-94. This issue of the Annual 

Supplement is intended for use from April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012. The updated edition of the 

NIST Building Life-Cycle Cost (BLCC) and Energy Escalation Rate Calculator (EERC) programs 

are released at the same time as this Annual Supplement, for use over the same time period. The 

software products are discussed below. 

At the request of a number of users, a text file of the EIA energy price projections underlying this 

Annual Supplement has been made available by NIST. To obtain this file (ENCOST11.txt), email 

amy.rushing@nist.gov.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures, as set forth in 10 CFR 436A, are to be followed by 

all federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, for evaluating the cost effectiveness of potential 

energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in federally owned and leased 

buildings. For most other federal LCC analyses OMB Circular A-94 provides the relevant guidelines. 

As called for by legislation (Energy Policy and Conservation Act, P.L.94-163, 1975, 92 Stat 3206, 42 

USC 8252 et seq), the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided technical 

assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life-cycle 

costing methods and procedures. The following publications and software products provide the 

methods, data, and computational tools for federal life-cycle cost analysis: 

(1) Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program, National Institute 

of Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (1995). 

This manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysis 

as they are applied to federal decisions, especially those subject to 10 CFR 436A rules. It describes 

the required procedures and assumptions, defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic 

performance measures, gives examples of federal decision problems and their solutions, explains 

how to use energy price indices and discount factors, and provides worksheets and other 

computational aids and instructions for calculating the required measures. 
v

(2) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Annual Supplement 

to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709, National Institute of Standards and 

Technology, NISTIR 85-3273. 

This report, which is updated annually, provides the current DOE and OMB discount rates, projected 

energy price indices, and corresponding discount factors needed to estimate the present values of 

future energy and non-energy-related project costs. 

(3) BLCC 5.3-11, NIST Building Life-Cycle Cost. This program uses as default values the same 

discount factors and energy price projections that underlie the discount factor tables in the 

Annual Supplement. It is available for Windows, Mac OS X, and Linux. 

 

BLCC 5.3 provides comprehensive economic analysis capabilities for the evaluation of proposed 

capital investments that are expected to reduce the long-term operating costs of buildings and 

building systems. It computes the LCC for project alternatives, compares project alternatives in order 

to determine which has the lowest LCC, performs annual cash flow analysis, and computes net 

savings (NS), savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and adjusted internal rate of return (AIRR) for 

project alternatives over their designated study period. The BLCC program can be used to perform 

economic analysis of capital investment projects undertaken by federal, state, and local government 

agencies. In the application to federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects, BLCC5 is 

consistent with NIST Handbook 135, and the federal life-cycle cost methodology and procedures 

described in 10 CFR 436A and OMB Circular A-94. 

The BLCC5 User’s Guide is part of its Help system. BLCC 5.3 has six modules, all of them 

consistent with the life-cycle cost methodology of 10 CFR 436A, but programmed to include default 

inputs and nomenclature for specific uses: 

• FEMP Analysis, Energy Project 

for energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects under the FEMP rules, 

agency-funded; 

• Federal Analysis, Financed Project

for federal projects financed through Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPC) or 

Utility Energy Services Contracts (UESC) as authorized by Executive Order 13123 (6/99); 

• OMB Analysis, Federal Analysis, Projects subject to OMB Circular A-94

for projects subject to OMB Circular A-94 (most other, non-energy, federal government 

construction projects, but not water resource projects); 

• MILCON Analysis, Energy Project

for energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in military construction, 

agency-funded; 

• MILCON Analysis, ECIP Project

for energy and water conservation projects under the Energy Conservation Investment 

Program (ECIP). 

• MILCON Analysis, Non-Energy Project 

for military construction designs that are not primarily for energy or water conservation. 
vi

(4) EERC 2.0-11, Energy Escalation Rate Calculator, a program that computes an average rate 

of escalation for a specified time period, which can be used as an escalation rate for contract 

payments in Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPC) and Utility Energy Services 

Contracts (UESC). Escalation rates can be computed based on the EIA energy price 

projections used for calculating the FEMP discount factors and on EIA projections adjusted 

by NIST for potential carbon pricing. 

The latest versions of the programs and publications described above can be downloaded from the 

DOE/FEMP web site at http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/program/lifecycle.html. 

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available to 

the private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for federal use. In response to 

this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship of the U.S. 

Department of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector entitled 

Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy Decisions, NBS SP 709 (January 1987). 

In 2008, DOE and NIST presented a 21⁄2-hour webcast, “Overview of Federal Building Energy 

Efficiency Mandates/An Introduction to Building Life-Cycle Costing.” This free webcast that 

introduces the elements of life-cycle cost analysis of energy and water conservation projects is 

available at http://www.energycodes.gov/federal/webcast_federal_series.stm. For in-house training, 

FEMP-Qualified Instructors are available to conduct LCC workshops on their own account across the 

U.S. For a list of instructors e-mail barbara.lippiatt@nist.gov. 

For further information on the Federal Energy Management Program, please visit 

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp. 
vii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

The authors wish to thank Cyrus Nasseri of the Federal Energy Management Program, U.S. 

Department of Energy (DOE), for his support and direction of this work. Appreciation is 

extended to Paul Kondis and Paul Holtberg, of the DOE Energy Information Administration, for 

providing the energy price projections upon which this report is based. Thanks are also due to 

Stephen Petersen and Sieglinde Fuller, who originated this publication, and to Carmen Pardo for 

her assistance in producing this document. 
viii
ix

CONTENTS

Page 

ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................................. iii 

PREFACE...................................................................................................................................... iv 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................ vii 

LIST OF TABLES...........................................................................................................................x 

ABBREVIATIONS ..................................................................................................................... xiv 

INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................................1 

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS .......................................4 

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs .................4 

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs .................................................12 

 B.1. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors......................................................15 

 B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors ......................................................21 

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real)..................................27 

D. Projected Average Carbon Prices and Emissions Indices.................................................44 

PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS.................48 
x

LIST OF TABLES

Page 

A-1. SPV factors for finding the present value of future single costs (non-fuel) ................7 

A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of future annually recurring uniform costs 

(non-fuel) .....................................................................................................................8 

A-3a. UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at 

 a constant escalation rate, DOE discount rate (3.0 %)..................................................9 

A-3b. UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at 

 a constant escalation rate, OMB short-term discount rate (0.8 %) .............................10 

A-3c. UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at 

 a constant escalation rate, OMB long-term discount rate (2.3 %) ..............................11 

Ba-1. FEMP UPV*

 discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector 

and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0 % (DOE). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, 

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode 

Island, Vermont) ........................................................................................................16 

Ba-2. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector 

and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0 % (DOE). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, 

Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, 

Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) .............................................................................17 

Ba-3. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector 

and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0 % (DOE). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, 

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, 

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, 

West Virginia).............................................................................................................18 

Ba-4. FEMP UPV*

 discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector 

and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0 % (DOE). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, 

California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, 

Washington, Wyoming)..............................................................................................19 

Ba-5. FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector 

and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.0 % (DOE). United States Average .......................20 

Bb-1. OMB UPV*

 discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and 

fuel type. Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB 

Circular A-94). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New 

Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)............22 
xi

LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page 

Bb-2. OMB UPV*

 discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and 

fuel type. Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB 

Circular A-94). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, 

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) ....23 

Bb-3. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and 

fuel type. Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB 

Circular A-94). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of 

Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North 

Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)...24 

Bb-4. OMB UPV*

 discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and 

fuel type. Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB 

Circular A-94). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)......25 

Bb-5. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and 

fuel type. Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB 

Circular A-94). United States Average.......................................................................26 

Ca-1. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel 

type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New 

Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)........................................29 

Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel 

type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) .......................31 

Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel 

type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, 

Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, 

South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) .....................................33 

Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel 

type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, 

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)................ 35 

Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel 

type. United States Average........................................................................................37 

Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by 

end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, 

New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) ...39 
xii

LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page 

Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by 

end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, 

Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, 

Wisconsin) ..................................................................................................................40 

Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by 

end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, 

District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, 

North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West 

Virginia)......................................................................................................................41 

Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by 

end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, 

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, 

Washington, Wyoming)..............................................................................................42 

Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by 

end-use sector and fuel type. United States Average..................................................43 

D-1. Projected Carbon Dioxide-Equivalent Emissions Prices, by Carbon 

 Policy Scenario ...........................................................................................................46 

D-2. Projected Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rate Indices for Electricity, by Carbon 

 Policy Scenario ...........................................................................................................47 

S-1. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 2 %, 3 %, 

4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, 

Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, 

Rhode Island, Vermont)............................................................................................. 50 

S-2. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 2 %, 3 %, 

4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, 

Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South 

 Dakota, Wisconsin).....................................................................................................53 

S-3. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 2 %, 3 %, 

4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, 

Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, 

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, 

Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)..................................................................................56 
xiii

S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 2 %, 3 %, 

4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, 

California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, 

Washington, Wyoming)..............................................................................................59 

S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 2 %, 3 %, 

4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. United States Average...............62 
xiv

ABBREVIATIONS

A - Annual amount 

A0 - Annual amount at base-date prices 

ADAGE - Applied Dynamic Analysis of Global Economy

AEO2011 - Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (DOE-EIA publication) 

BLCC - NIST Building Life Cycle Cost computer program 

CO2 - Carbon Dioxide 

COAL - Coal 

d - discount rate 

DIST - Distillate Oil 

DOE - U.S. Department of Energy 

e - price escalation rate (annual rate of price change) 

EIA - Energy Information Administration (DOE) 

ELEC - Electricity 

EPA - U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

ESPC - Energy Savings Performance Contract 

FEMP - Federal Energy Management Program 

FY - Fiscal Year 

GASLN - Gasoline 

kg - kilogram 

LCC - Life-Cycle Cost 

LPG - Liquefied petroleum gas 

N - Number of discount periods (in years) 

NEMS - National Energy Modeling System 

NIST - National Institute of Standards and Technology 

NTGAS - Natural Gas 

OMB - Office of Management and Budget 

RESID - Residual Oil 

SPV - Single Present Value (factor) 

UESC - Utility Energy Services Contract 

UPV - Uniform Present Value (factor) 

UPV*

 - Modified Uniform Present Value (factor) 

1

INTRODUCTION 

This report provides tables of present-value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital 

investment projects for federal facilities. It also provides energy price indices based on Department 

of Energy (DOE) forecasts from 2011 to 2041. The factors and indices presented in this report are 

useful for determining the present value of future project-related costs, especially those related to 

operational energy costs. Discount factors included in this report are based on two different federal 

sources: (1) the DOE discount rate for projects related to energy conservation, renewable energy 

resources, and water conservation; and (2) Office of Management and Budget (OMB) discount rates 

from Circular A-94 for use with most other capital investment projects in federal facilities. 

The DOE discount and inflation rates for 2011 are as follows: 

Real rate (excluding general price inflation): 3.0 % 

Nominal rate (including general price inflation): 3.9 % 

Implied long-term average rate of inflation: 0.9 % 

The DOE nominal discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over the 12 

months prior to the preparation of this report. The nominal, or market, rate is converted to a real rate 

to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach used in most federal life-cycle cost (LCC) 

analyses. The method for calculating the real discount rate from the nominal discount rate is 

described in 10 CFR 436 and uses the projected rate of general inflation published in the most recent 

Report of the President’s Economic Advisors, Analytical Perspectives. The procedure would result in 

a discount rate for 2011 lower than the 3.0 % floor prescribed in 10 CFR 436. Thus the 3.0 % floor is 

used as the real discount rate for FEMP analyses in 2011. The implied long-term average rate of 

inflation was calculated as 0.9 %. Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are required 

by 10 CFR 436 to use the DOE discount rates when conducting LCC analyses related to energy 

conservation, renewable energy resources, and water conservation projects for federal facilities. 

The nominal and real discount rates applicable to general (non-energy or water) capital investments 

are published annually in OMB Circular A-94, Appendix C. OMB has specified two basic types of 

discount rates: (1) a discount rate for public investment and regulatory analyses; and (2) a discount 

rate for cost-effectiveness, lease-purchase, and related analyses. Only discount rates for the second 

type of analyses are included in this Annual Supplement, since the primary purpose of this report is 

to support cost-effectiveness studies related to the design and operation of federal facilities. 

OMB discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on 

Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years. Currently (as of April 2011) 

six maturities have been specifically identified by OMB, and are shown here with the corresponding 

real interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to OMB Circular A-94: 

Maturity: 3-year 5-year 7-year 10-year 20-year 30-year

Rate: 0.0 % 0.4 % 0.8 % 1.3 % 2.1 % 2.3 % 

OMB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from these 

maturities and rates, based on the study period used in the analysis. Due to limitations on the size of 

this Annual Supplement, discount factors for only two of these maturities are presented: factors for 

short term analyses (up to 10 years) based on the 7-year real rate (0.8 %), and factors for long-term 
2

analyses (longer than 10 years) based on the 30-year real rate (2.3 %). As a result, these discount 

factors are for approximation purposes only. It is suggested that the NIST Building Life Cycle Cost 

(BLCC) program be used to compute the present value factors for the discount rate corresponding to 

the length of the study period when approximate values are not satisfactory for the project analysis. 

(See preface for details on obtaining this program.) 

The energy price indices and corresponding present value factors published in this report are 

computed from energy price forecasts provided to NIST by the Department of Energy's Energy 

Information Administration (EIA). The EIA energy price forecast used in this report was the most 

recent available at the time this report was prepared. A description of the methodology used by EIA 

to project energy prices through 2041 is included in section B of this report. DOE has not projected 

escalation rates for water prices to be used in the LCC analysis of water conservation projects. Water 

escalation rates should be obtained from the local water utility when possible. 

Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are encouraged to seek energy price projections 

from their local utility to use in place of the DOE/EIA regional projections, especially when 

evaluating alternative fuel types. In such cases the BLCC program can be used to calculate 

appropriate "modified uniform present value" (UPV*) factors for use in the LCC analysis of federal 

energy conservation or renewable resource projects. Otherwise, 10 CFR 436 requires the use of the 

DOE energy price forecasts when conducting LCC analyses of such projects. The UPV* factors for 

energy costs presented in this report have been precalculated with the DOE forecast data. Thus the 

use of these UPV* factors automatically ensures that the DOE forecast data have been included in 

the analysis. 

Most financed federal projects, such as Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPC), base contract 

payments on projected annual energy cost savings. When setting up the contract, average rates of 

energy price escalation over the contract term are a matter of negotiation. One consideration in 

setting escalation rates is the potential for future carbon pricing. Should carbon pricing legislation be 

enacted by the U.S. Congress, use of the EIA-based escalation rates—which do not consider carbon 

pricing—likely would underestimate escalation for contract payments. In 2010, to assist federal 

agencies in considering a range of escalation rate scenarios, FEMP introduces to the annual 

supplement a new “D” series of tables projecting potential future carbon prices and electricity-related 

carbon emissions rates under a range of carbon policy scenarios. Also in 2010, with the release of the 

Energy Escalation Rate Calculator (EERC 2.0), a BLCC companion program for financed projects, 

average rates of escalation may be calculated for each of these carbon policy scenarios. These may be 

considered by federal agencies for use as energy price escalation rates for contract payments. 

All of the tables of discount factors contained in this report are based on real discount rates and are 

therefore intended for use only with economic analyses conducted in constant dollars (in which the 

purchasing power of the dollar is held constant). The energy price escalation rates and corresponding 

energy price indices for federal analyses contained in this report are also expressed in real terms. If 

nominal discount rates and current dollar costs (which both include inflation) are used in the LCC 

analyses of federal projects, choose the current-dollar-analysis option in the BLCC computer 

program, which uses a nominal discount rate and adds the rate of general inflation to all dollar 

amounts. 

This report uses the term "present value" instead of "present worth" for the discount factors 

presented. The meaning of these two terms is considered to be identical for purposes of economic 

analysis. This change in terminology was made to be consistent with the terms used in the ASTM 
3

International compilation of standards on building economics (ASTM Standards on Building 

Economics, 6th Edition, ASTM, West Conshohocken, PA, 2007.) 

In all of the tables, the “end-of-year” discounting convention is used, that is, all factors and indices 

are computed to adjust future dollar amounts to present value from the end of the year in which they 

are expected to occur. The factors and indices in this publication, which include energy price 

escalation rates (e.g., UPV* factors and energy price indices), were calculated using April 1, 2011 as 

their base date. However, these factors and indices can be used without adjustment for the LCC 

analysis of projects with other base dates until the release of the next revision of this publication. 

Adjustment of these factors and indices for differences in the month-specific base date is not 

generally warranted due to uncertainties in estimating future energy prices. 
4

PART I: 

TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs 

Table A-1 presents the single present value (SPV) factors for finding the present value of future 

non-fuel, non-annually recurring costs, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values. 

The formula for finding the present value (P) of a future cost occurring in year t (Ct) is the 

following: 

, (1 )

1 t t t t C SPV

d

P C = ×

+ = ×

where d = discount rate, and 

 t = number of time periods (years) between the present time and the time the cost is 

 incurred. 

Table A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV) factors for finding the present value of future 

non-fuel costs recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the 

present value (P) of an annually recurring uniform cost (A) is the following: 

, (1 )

(1 ) 1

N N

N

A UPV

d d

d P A = ×

+

+ − = ×

where d = discount rate, and 

 N = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs. 

Tables A-3 (a,b,c) present modified uniform present value (UPV*) factors for finding the present 

value of annually recurring non-fuel costs, such as water costs, which are expected to change 

from year to year at a constant rate of change (or escalation rate) over the study period. The 

escalation rate can be positive or negative. The formula for finding the present value (P) of an 

annually recurring cost at base-date prices (A0) changing at escalation rate e is the following: 

N

N

A UPV

d

e

d e

e P A *

0 1

1 1 1 = ×

⎥

⎥

⎦

⎤

⎢

⎢

⎣

⎡ ⎟

⎠

⎞ ⎜

⎝

⎛

+

+ ⎟ − ⎠

⎞ ⎜

⎝

⎛

−

+ = × (d ≠ e)

or 

P A N A UPV N

* = 0 × = × ( ) d = e ,

where A0 = annually recurring cost at base-date prices, 

 d = discount rate, 

 e = escalation rate, and 

 N = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs. 
5

Note: if the discount rate is expressed in real terms, i.e., net of general inflation, then the 

escalation rate must also be expressed in real terms. If the discount rate is expressed in nominal 

terms, i.e., including general inflation, then the escalation rate must also be expressed in 

nominal terms.

In tables A-1, A-2, and A-3 (a,b,c) SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors are provided for both the DOE 

and the OMB Circular A-94 real discount rates current as of the date of this publication. The 

FEMP SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors were computed using the DOE discount rate. The FEMP 

factors are for finding the present value of future costs associated with federal energy and water 

conservation projects and renewable energy projects. The OMB SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors 

were computed using the OMB discount rates. The OMB factors are for finding the present value 

of future costs associated with most other federal projects (except those specifically exempted 

from OMB Circular A-94). The DOE and OMB discount rates used in computing these tables are 

real rates, exclusive of general price inflation. Thus the resulting discount factors are intended for 

use with future costs that are stated in constant dollars. 

Note: We have added to table A-3a a column of UPV* factors that incorporate an escalation rate 

of -0.9 %, the negative of the inflation rate used to calculate the DOE nominal discount rate for 

2011. The UPV* factors in this column can be used to calculate present values of fixed dollar 

amounts when performing a constant-dollar analysis. An example might be a fixed contract 

payment in an ESPC project. For these fixed amounts, the assumption that in a constant-dollar 

analysis all cash flows change at the rate of general inflation (so that the differential escalation 

rate is zero) does not apply. In real terms, fixed amounts change at a differential rate equal to 

the negative of the inflation rate.

Examples of How to Use the Factors: 

SPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th 

year for an energy efficient heating system, go to Table A-1, find the 3.0 % SPV factor for year 8 

(0.789), and multiply the factor by the replacement cost as of the base date. 

SPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor 

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-1, find the 0.8 % SPV factor for year 5 (0.961), and 

multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date. 

SPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a 

floor covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-1, find the 2.3 % SPV factor for year 15 

(0.711), and multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date. 

UPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a 

renewable energy system over 20 years, go to Table A-2, find the 3.0 % UPV factor for 20 years 

(14.88), and multiply the factor by the annual maintenance cost as of the base date. 

UPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office 

cleaning over 10 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table 

A-2, find the 0.8 % UPV factor for 10 years (9.57), and multiply the factor by the annual 

cleaning cost as of the base date. 
6

UPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office 

cleaning over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table 

A-2, find the 2.3 % UPV factor for 25 years (18.85), and multiply the factor by the annual 

cleaning cost as of the base date. 

UPV* (all): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of water usage which are 

expected to increase at 2 % faster than the rate of general inflation over 25 years, find the UPV* 

factor from table A-3 (a ,b, or c as appropriate) that corresponds to 2 % escalation and a 25 year 

study period. From table A-3a (3.0 % DOE discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 

22.08. Multiply this factor by the annual water cost as computed at base year prices to determine 

the present value of these water costs over the entire 25 years. 

UPV* (negative inflation rate): To compute the present value of an annually recurring contract 

payment that is fixed over a contract period of 10 years, find the UPV* factor from table A-3a 

that corresponds to an escalation of -0.9 % and a 10-year time period. From table A-3a (3.0 % 

DOE discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 8.14. Multiply this factor by the annual 

contract payment as of the base year to determine the present value of these contract payments 

over the entire 10-year period. 

Note: UPV factors are generally applied to costs that recur annually in substantially the same 

amount. Examples of such costs are routine operating and maintenance costs. UPV* factors are 

generally applied to costs that recur annually but change from year to year at a constant 

escalation rate. Examples of such costs are water usage costs when they increase from year to 

year. These costs usually occur every year over the service period of the building life. If there is 

a planning/design/construction period before the service life begins, during which these annual 

costs are not incurred, the appropriate UPV (or UPV*) factor for the service period is the 

difference between the UPV (or UPV*) factor for the entire study period and the UPV (or UPV*) 

factor for the planning/design/construction period. For example, if the planning/ 

design/construction period is 3 years and the service period is 25 years, for a total study period 

of 28 years, the corresponding UPV factor (from Table A-2, DOE 3.0 % discount rate) is 18.76 - 

2.83 = 15.93. 

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NIST Handbook 135. 
7

Table A-1. SPV factors for finding the present value of future single costs (non-fuel) 

 

 Single Present Value (SPV) Factors 

 ---------- ----------------------------------------- 

 Number of DOE OMB Discount Ratesa

 years from Discount rate Short termb Long Termc

 base date 3.0 % 0.8 % 2.3 % 

 ---------- ------------- ---------- --------- 

 0.25 0.993 0.998 0.994 

 0.50 0.985 0.996 0.989 

 0.75 0.978 0.994 0.983 

 1 0.971 0.992 0.978 

 2 0.943 0.984 0.956 

 3 0.915 0.976 0.934 

 4 0.888 0.969 0.913 

 5 0.863 0.961 0.893 

 6 0.837 0.953 0.872 

 7 0.813 0.946 0.853 

 8 0.789 0.938 0.834 

 9 0.766 0.931 0.815 

 10 0.744 0.923 0.797 

 11 0.722 0.779 

 12 0.701 0.761 

 13 0.681 0.744 

 14 0.661 0.727 

 15 0.642 0.711 

 16 0.623 0.695 

 17 0.605 0.679 

 18 0.587 0.664 

 19 0.570 0.649 

 20 0.554 0.635 

 21 0.538 0.620 

 22 0.522 0.606 

 23 0.507 0.593 

 24 0.492 0.579 

 25 0.478 0.566 

 26 0.464 0.554 

 27 0.450 0.541 

 28 0.437 0.529 

 29 0.424 0.517 

 30 0.412 0.506 

 ---------- ------------- ---------- --------- 

 aOMB discount rates as of April 2011. 

 b

Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period. 

 c

Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period. 
8

Table A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of annually recurring uniform costs 

(non-fuel) 

 Uniform Present Value (UPV) Factors 

 ---------- ----------------------------------------- 

 Number of DOE OMB Discount Ratesa

 years from Discount rate Short termb Long Termc

 base date 3.0 % 0.8 % 2.3 % 

 ---------- ------------- ---------- --------- 

 1 0.97 0.99 0.98 

 2 1.91 1.98 1.93 

 3 2.83 2.95 2.87 

 4 3.72 3.92 3.78 

 5 4.58 4.88 4.67 

 6 5.42 5.84 5.55 

 7 6.23 6.78 6.40 

 8 7.02 7.72 7.23 

 9 7.79 8.65 8.05 

 10 8.53 9.57 8.84 

 11 9.25 9.62 

 12 9.95 10.38 

 13 10.63 11.13 

 14 11.30 11.85 

 15 11.94 12.57 

 16 12.56 13.26 

 17 13.17 13.94 

 18 13.75 14.60 

 19 14.32 15.25 

 20 14.88 15.89 

 21 15.42 16.51 

 22 15.94 17.11 

 23 16.44 17.71 

 24 16.94 18.29 

 25 17.41 18.85 

 26 17.88 19.41 

 27 18.33 19.95 

 28 18.76 20.48 

 29 19.19 20.99 

 30 19.60 21.50 

 ---------- ------------- ---------- ---------

a

OMB discount rates as of April 2011. 

b

Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period. c

Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.
Table A-3a. UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs c

at a constant escalation rate, DOE discount rate. 

DOE discount rate = 3.0 % 

Modified Uniform Present Value (UPV*) Factors (non-fuel) 

 ---------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Annual rate of price change  years from --------------------------------------------------------------------- base date -4 % -3 % -2 % -1 % -.9 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 3 % 4 %  ---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01  2 1.80 1.83 1.86 1.89 1.89 1.91 1.94 1.97 2.00 2.03  3 2.61 2.66 2.72 2.77 2.78 2.83 2.88 2.94 3.00 3.06  4 3.37 3.45 3.54 3.63 3.64 3.72 3.81 3.90 4.00 4.10  5 4.07 4.19 4.32 4.45 4.46 4.58 4.72 4.86 5.00 5.15  6 4.72 4.89 5.06 5.24 5.25 5.42 5.61 5.80 6.00 6.21  7 5.33 5.55 5.77 5.99 6.02 6.23 6.48 6.73 7.00 7.28 

8 5.90 6.16 6.44 6.72 6.75 7.02 7.33 7.66 8.00 8.36 9 6.44 6.75 7.08 7.42 7.46 7.79 8.17 8.57 9.00 9.45 

10 6.93 7.30 7.68 8.09 8.14 8.53 8.99 9.48 10.00 10.55 11 7.39 7.81 8.26 8.74 8.79 9.25 9.80 10.38 11.00 11.66 12 7.82 8.30 8.81 9.36 9.42 9.95 10.59 11.27 12.00 12.78 13 8.22 8.76 9.34 9.96 10.03 10.63 11.36 12.15 13.00 13.92 14 8.59 9.19 9.83 10.54 10.61 11.30 12.12 13.02 14.00 15.06 

 15 8.94 9.60 10.31 11.09 11.17 11.94 12.87 13.89 15.00 16.22  16 9.27 9.98 10.76 11.62 11.71 12.56 13.60 14.74 16.00 17.39 

17 9.57 10.34 11.19 12.13 12.23 13.17 14.32 15.59 17.00 18.57 

 18 9.85 10.68 11.60 12.62 12.73 13.75 15.02 16.43 18.00 19.76  19 10.11 11.00 11.99 13.09 13.21 14.32 15.71 17.26 19.00 20.96 

20 10.36 11.30 12.36 13.54 13.67 14.88 16.38 18.08 20.00 22.17 21 10.59 11.58 12.71 13.98 14.11 15.42 17.05 18.90 21.00 23.39 22 10.80 11.85 13.04 14.40 14.54 15.94 17.69 19.70 22.00 24.63 

 23 11.00 12.10 13.36 14.80 14.95 16.44 18.33 20.50 23.00 25.88  24 11.18 12.34 13.66 15.18 15.35 16.94 18.96 21.29 24.00 27.14  25 11.35 12.56 13.95 15.56 15.73 17.41 19.57 22.08 25.00 28.41  26 11.51 12.77 14.23 15.91 16.10 17.88 20.17 22.85 26.00 29.70  27 11.66 12.97 14.49 16.26 16.45 18.33 20.76 23.62 27.00 31.00  28 11.80 13.16 14.73 16.59 16.79 18.76 21.34 24.38 28.00 32.31 

29 11.93 13.33 14.97 16.90 17.11 19.19 21.90 25.14 29.00 33.63 30 12.05 13.50 15.20 17.21 17.43 19.60 22.46 25.88 30.00 34.97 

9
Table A-3b. UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring amounts 

at a constant escalation rate, OMB short-term discount rate. 

OMB short-term discount rate = 0.8 %a 

Modified Uniform Present Value (UPV*) Factors (non-fuel) 

 ---------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Annual rate of price change  years from --------------------------------------------------------------------- base date -5 % -4 % -3 % -2 % -1 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 3 % 4 %  ---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03  2 1.83 1.86 1.89 1.92 1.95 1.98 2.01 2.04 2.07 2.10  3 2.67 2.72 2.78 2.84 2.89 2.95 3.01 3.07 3.13 3.19  4 3.46 3.55 3.64 3.73 3.82 3.92 4.02 4.12 4.22 4.33  5 4.20 4.33 4.46 4.60 4.74 4.88 5.03 5.18 5.34 5.50  6 4.90 5.08 5.26 5.44 5.64 5.84 6.04 6.26 6.48 6.70  7 5.56 5.79 6.02 6.26 6.52 6.78 7.06 7.34 7.64 7.95  8 6.18 6.46 6.76 7.06 7.38 7.72 8.07 8.44 8.83 9.23  9 6.77 7.11 7.46 7.84 8.23 8.65 9.09 9.55 10.04 10.56  10 7.32 7.72 8.14 8.59 9.07 9.57 10.11 10.68 11.28 11.92 aOMB discount rate as of April 2011. 

 Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period. 

10
Table A-3c. UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring amounts 

at a constant escalation rate, OMB long-term discount rate. 

OMB long-term discount rate = 2.3 %a 

 Modified Uniform Present Value (UPV*) Factors (non-fuel)  ---------- --------------------------------------------------------------------- Number of Annual rate of price change  years from --------------------------------------------------------------------- base date -5 % -4 % -3 % -2 % -1 % 0 % 1 % 2 % 3 % 4 %  ---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02  2 1.79 1.82 1.85 1.88 1.90 1.93 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.05  3 2.59 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.81 2.87 2.92 2.98 3.04 3.10  4 3.34 3.42 3.51 3.60 3.69 3.78 3.87 3.97 4.07 4.17  5 4.03 4.15 4.27 4.40 4.54 4.67 4.81 4.96 5.10 5.25  6 4.67 4.83 5.00 5.18 5.36 5.55 5.74 5.94 6.15 6.36  7 5.26 5.47 5.69 5.92 6.15 6.40 6.65 6.92 7.19 7.48  8 5.82 6.07 6.34 6.63 6.92 7.23 7.56 7.90 8.25 8.62  9 6.33 6.64 6.96 7.31 7.67 8.05 8.45 8.87 9.31 9.78  10 6.81 7.17 7.55 7.96 8.39 8.84 9.33 9.84 10.38 10.96  11 7.25 7.66 8.11 8.58 9.08 9.62 10.20 10.81 11.46 12.16  12 7.66 8.13 8.64 9.18 9.76 10.38 11.05 11.77 12.55 13.38  13 8.04 8.57 9.14 9.75 10.41 11.13 11.90 12.74 13.64 14.62  14 8.40 8.98 9.61 10.30 11.04 11.85 12.74 13.70 14.74 15.88  15 8.73 9.37 10.06 10.82 11.66 12.57 13.56 14.65 15.85 17.16  16 9.03 9.73 10.49 11.33 12.25 13.26 14.38 15.61 16.96 18.46  17 9.32 10.07 10.89 11.81 12.82 13.94 15.18 16.56 18.09 19.78  18 9.58 10.38 11.28 12.27 13.37 14.60 15.98 17.51 19.22 21.13  19 9.83 10.68 11.64 12.71 13.91 15.25 16.76 18.45 20.36 22.50  20 10.05 10.96 11.99 13.14 14.43 15.89 17.53 19.40 21.50 23.89  21 10.26 11.23 12.31 13.54 14.93 16.51 18.30 20.34 22.66 25.30  22 10.46 11.47 12.62 13.93 15.42 17.11 19.05 21.27 23.82 26.74  23 10.64 11.71 12.92 14.30 15.89 17.71 19.80 22.21 24.99 28.20  24 10.81 11.92 13.20 14.66 16.34 18.29 20.53 23.14 26.16 29.68  25 10.97 12.13 13.46 15.00 16.78 18.85 21.26 24.07 27.35 31.19  26 11.12 12.32 13.71 15.33 17.21 19.41 21.98 25.00 28.54 32.73  27 11.25 12.50 13.95 15.64 17.62 19.95 22.69 25.92 29.75 34.29  28 11.38 12.67 14.18 15.94 18.02 20.48 23.38 26.84 30.96 35.87  29 11.49 12.83 14.39 16.23 18.41 20.99 24.08 27.76 32.18 37.49  30 11.60 12.97 14.59 16.51 18.78 21.50 24.76 28.67 33.40 39.13 

aOMB discount rate as of April 2011. 

 Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.

11
12

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs 

This section presents FEMP and OMB modified uniform present value (UPV*) discount factors 

for calculating the present value of energy usage for federal projects. Factors are provided for the 

four major Census regions and for the overall United States. The factors are modified in the 

sense that they incorporate energy price escalation rates based on future energy prices projected 

by DOE for the years 2011 to 2041. There are two sets of UPV* tables: the "Ba" tables present 

FEMP UPV* factors based on the DOE discount rate (3.0 % real), and the "Bb" tables present 

OMB UPV* factors based on two OMB discount rates (0.8 % real for short-term study periods 

of 1 to 10 years, 2.3 % real for long-term study periods of 11 to 30 years). The underlying energy 

price indices for the years 2011 to 2041, on which these UPV* calculations are based, are shown 

in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5. The corresponding average energy price escalation rates for selected 

time intervals between 2011 and 2041 are shown in tables Cb-1 through Cb-5. 

Energy Price Projections. The FEMP and OMB UPV* factors incorporate energy price 

escalation rates computed from future energy prices projected by the Energy Information 

Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Energy prices through 2035 were 

generated by EIA using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and published in the 

Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011). At the request of FEMP, EIA extrapolated energy 

prices from 2036 to 2041 based on selected growth rates from the AEO2011 projections. 

NEMS is an energy market model designed to project the impacts of alternative energy policies 

or assumptions on U.S. energy markets. NEMS produces projections of the U.S. energy future, 

given current laws and policies and other key assumptions, including macroeconomic indicators 

from Data Resources, Inc., the production policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting 

Countries, the size of the economically recoverable resource base for fossil fuels, and the rate of 

development and penetration of new technologies. NEMS balances energy supply and demands 

with modules representing primary fuel supply, end-use demand for four sectors, and conversion 

of energy by refineries and electricity generators. Macroeconomic and international oil modules 

reflect the impacts of energy prices, production, and consumption on world oil markets and the 

economy. 

The EIA energy price projections presented in this report, like those of other forecasts, are 

dependent on the data, methodologies, and specific assumptions used in their development. 

Many of the assumptions concerning the future cannot be known with any degree of certainty. 

Thus, the projections are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the 

particular assumptions and methodologies used. Although EIA has endeavored to make these 

forecasts as objective, reliable, and useful as possible, these projections should serve as an 

adjunct to, not a substitute for, the analytical process. The AEO2011 was prepared by EIA as 

required under statute by federal legislation. The price projections to 2041 were prepared in 

accordance with a Service Request from the Federal Energy Management Program. 

Note: Section 441 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) extends from 25 

years to 40 years the maximum service period for conducting FEMP life-cycle cost analyses. To 

account for the legislated change, the BLCC program now incorporates unofficial projections of 

future energy prices beyond 2041 to accommodate FEMP service periods of up to 40 years. The 
13

projections are based on simple extrapolations of 2041 growth rates and are not reported here 

because they are not endorsed by EIA. BLCC users should exercise caution when interpreting 

energy cost savings beyond 30 years and do sensitivity analyses to test different out-year 

assumptions. 

UPV* Calculation Method. The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs 

or savings is the following: 

*

0

1

(2011 )

0 (1 ) N

N

t

t

t A xUPV

d

I

P A x = + = ∑=

+

where A0 = annual cost of energy as of the base date (April 1, 2011); 

 t = index used to designate the year of energy usage; 

 N = number of periods, e.g., years, over which energy costs or savings accrue; 

 I(2011+t) = projected average fuel price index1

 given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 

 for the year 2011+t (where I2011 = 1.00); and 

 d = the real discount rate. 

This formula is based on end-of-year energy prices and end-of-year discounting. Note that 

annual energy costs as of the base date of the LCC analysis (A0, to be supplied by the analyst) 

should reflect the current energy price schedule as of that date, which may not be the same as the 

energy price itself on that date.2

 That is, the annual energy cost should reflect summer-winter 

rate differences, time-of-use rates, block rates considerations, and demand charges (as 

appropriate) anticipated to be in effect that year. If energy and demand costs are calculated 

separately (as is sometimes done for electricity), the UPV* factor should be applied to both 

costs. 

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. 

Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The 

Census regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust 

Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas 

should use data that are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with 

 U.S. average data for guidance.

 

1

 For greater precision, the UPV* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using the unrounded form 

of the indices given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5. 

2

 While the UPV* factors provided in this publication were computed using energy price indices that correspond to 

energy prices as of April 1 in the current and future years, the analyst is encouraged to use for determining A0 the 

energy prices prevailing as of the base date of the LCC analysis for the project evaluated. 
Figure B-1 

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14
15

B.1. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 

The FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value (FEMP UPV*) factors presented in the "Ba" tables, 

based on the current DOE discount rate (3.0 %), are for calculating the present value of energy 

costs or savings accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of 

federal energy conservation and renewable energy projects. Factors are reported in the "Ba" 

tables for 30 years to accommodate a planning/design/construction period of up to 5 years. (See 

"Examples of How to Use FEMP UPV* Factors" below for instructions on use with 

planning/design/construction periods.) 

These factors apply only to annual energy usage or energy savings that are assumed to be the 

same each year over the service period. The BLCC computer program can compute the present 

value of energy usage and savings that are not the same in each year. 

Examples of How to Use the FEMP UPV* Factors: 

FEMP UPV*, no planning/design/construction period: To compute the present value of heating 

with natural gas over 25 years in a federal office building in New Mexico, go to Table Ba-4, find 

the FEMP UPV* factor for commercial natural gas for 25 years (18.87), and multiply this factor 

by the annual heating cost at base-date natural gas prices. 

FEMP UPV*, with planning/design/construction period: To compute a present value factor for a 

service period following a planning/design/construction period (1) find the FEMP UPV* factor 

for the combined length of the planning/design/construction period and the service period, and 

(2) subtract from (1) the FEMP UPV* factor for the planning/design/ construction period alone. 

The difference is the FEMP UPV* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings 

actually accrue. For example, suppose a new federal office building in New York is being 

evaluated with several energy conserving design options. It is expected to have a 

planning/design/construction period of 5 years, after which it will be occupied for 25 years. To 

compute the present value of natural gas costs over 25 years of occupancy, go to Table Ba-1 and 

find the FEMP UPV* factors for commercial natural gas for 5 years (4.26) and for 30 years 

(19.65). The difference (15.39) is the FEMP UPV* factor for natural gas costs over 25 years, 

beginning 5 years after the base date. Multiply 15.39 by the annual natural gas cost at base date 

prices (not occupancy-date prices) to calculate the present value of natural gas costs over the 

entire 25-year occupancy period. 
Table Ba-1. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector an

Discount rate = 3.0 % (DOE) 

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal 

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.99 0.93 1.01 0.95 0.93 0.97 0.80 0.95 1.00 0.92 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.98  2 1.96 1.82 2.01 1.85 1.80 1.92 1.56 1.85 1.98 1.80 1.93 1.90 1.91 1.93  3 2.91 2.71 2.99 2.72 2.64 2.87 2.33 2.68 2.93 2.64 2.88 2.84 2.81 2.86  4 3.82 3.59 3.96 3.56 3.44 3.81 3.11 3.49 3.85 3.46 3.82 3.79 3.67 3.76  5 4.70 4.47 4.91 4.39 4.22 4.75 3.89 4.26 4.75 4.26 4.77 4.74 4.52 4.64  6 5.54 5.36 5.85 5.19 4.98 5.70 4.67 5.03 5.63 5.05 5.72 5.69 5.34 5.50  7 6.35 6.25 6.77 5.98 5.72 6.65 5.46 5.77 6.47 5.82 6.67 6.63 6.15 6.33  8 7.12 7.13 7.68 6.76 6.43 7.60 6.23 6.50 7.30 6.59 7.62 7.56 6.94 7.14  9 7.88 8.00 8.57 7.53 7.14 8.54 7.01 7.23 8.10 7.35 8.56 8.49 7.73 7.93 10 8.61 8.86 9.45 8.29 7.84 9.46 7.77 7.94 8.89 8.11 9.48 9.40 8.50 8.70 11 9.31 9.71 10.31 9.03 8.51 10.38 8.54 8.63 9.65 8.86 10.39 10.31 9.26 9.45 12 9.98 10.53 11.15 9.77 9.17 11.27 9.31 9.32 10.39 9.59 11.29 11.22 10.01 10.17 13 10.63 11.35 11.98 10.49 9.81 12.16 10.08 9.99 11.11 10.31 12.17 12.13 10.75 10.87 14 11.26 12.16 12.78 11.20 10.44 13.03 10.83 10.66 11.81 11.02 13.04 13.01 11.48 11.56 15 11.86 12.95 13.57 11.90 11.04 13.88 11.57 11.31 12.49 11.71 13.90 13.88 12.20 12.22 16 12.44 13.72 14.35 12.58 11.62 14.72 12.29 11.94 13.16 12.38 14.73 14.73 12.91 12.87 17 13.01 14.47 15.10 13.26 12.19 15.54 13.00 12.57 13.81 13.04 15.55 15.55 13.60 13.51 18 13.55 15.22 15.83 13.92 12.74 16.35 13.69 13.18 14.45 13.68 16.36 16.37 14.28 14.13 19 14.07 15.94 16.55 14.57 13.27 17.13 14.37 13.78 15.07 14.31 17.13 17.15 14.95 14.73 20 14.58 16.64 17.24 15.20 13.79 17.89 15.02 14.37 15.68 14.92 17.89 17.93 15.61 15.32 21 15.07 17.32 17.92 15.83 14.29 18.63 15.67 14.95 16.27 15.52 18.63 18.67 16.25 15.89 22 15.55 17.99 18.57 16.44 14.78 19.35 16.29 15.51 16.84 16.10 19.35 19.40 16.88 16.44 23 16.02 18.64 19.21 17.04 15.26 20.05 16.90 16.06 17.40 16.68 20.05 20.12 17.49 16.99 24 16.48 19.27 19.83 17.63 15.73 20.74 17.50 16.60 17.95 17.24 20.74 20.82 18.10 17.51 25 16.92 19.89 20.43 18.20 16.18 21.41 18.08 17.13 18.49 17.78 21.40 21.50 18.69 18.03 26 17.35 20.49 21.01 18.77 16.62 22.06 18.65 17.65 19.01 18.32 22.05 22.16 19.28 18.53 27 17.76 21.08 21.58 19.32 17.05 22.69 19.20 18.16 19.52 18.83 22.69 22.80 19.86 19.02 28 18.16 21.65 22.14 19.87 17.46 23.31 19.74 18.66 20.01 19.34 23.30 23.43 20.44 19.49 29 18.55 22.20 22.67 20.40 17.85 23.91 20.27 19.16 20.49 19.82 23.90 24.04 21.01 19.96 30 18.93 22.74 23.20 20.92 18.24 24.50 20.78 19.65 20.96 20.30 24.48 24.64 21.57 20.41 

16
Table Ba-2. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector an

Discount Rate = 3.0 % (DOE) 

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal 

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.94 0.87 1.05 0.93 0.96 0.91 1.06 0.95 0.97 0.96 0.91 1.03 0.97 0.96  2 1.87 1.70 2.11 1.83 1.88 1.78 2.13 1.84 1.95 1.90 1.78 2.06 1.91 1.89  3 2.76 2.52 3.15 2.70 2.77 2.64 3.20 2.68 2.89 2.80 2.65 3.09 2.82 2.78  4 3.63 3.33 4.18 3.54 3.63 3.50 4.27 3.50 3.79 3.68 3.51 4.11 3.72 3.63  5 4.47 4.15 5.20 4.38 4.46 4.37 5.33 4.31 4.66 4.53 4.38 5.13 4.61 4.47  6 5.29 4.97 6.20 5.19 5.27 5.24 6.38 5.09 5.52 5.36 5.26 6.14 5.48 5.28  7 6.07 5.79 7.20 6.00 6.04 6.12 7.42 5.87 6.35 6.15 6.13 7.15 6.34 6.07  8 6.82 6.61 8.18 6.79 6.79 7.00 8.46 6.63 7.16 6.92 7.00 8.16 7.19 6.83  9 7.55 7.42 9.15 7.58 7.51 7.86 9.49 7.39 7.95 7.66 7.87 9.15 8.04 7.58 10 8.25 8.21 10.11 8.37 8.20 8.71 10.50 8.15 8.72 8.37 8.72 10.13 8.90 8.30 11 8.92 8.99 11.05 9.14 8.87 9.55 11.49 8.90 9.46 9.07 9.56 11.10 9.75 9.00 12 9.58 9.76 11.97 9.91 9.52 10.38 12.48 9.64 10.19 9.74 10.39 12.05 10.59 9.69 13 10.21 10.51 12.88 10.66 10.15 11.19 13.44 10.38 10.89 10.40 11.20 12.99 11.44 10.36 14 10.82 11.25 13.76 11.41 10.76 11.99 14.38 11.10 11.58 11.03 12.01 13.92 12.27 11.02 15 11.42 11.98 14.63 12.15 11.35 12.78 15.31 11.82 12.25 11.65 12.79 14.82 13.10 11.67 16 11.99 12.70 15.48 12.88 11.92 13.55 16.22 12.52 12.91 12.25 13.56 15.71 13.91 12.29 17 12.55 13.40 16.31 13.59 12.48 14.31 17.11 13.21 13.55 12.83 14.32 16.58 14.72 12.91 18 13.10 14.08 17.12 14.29 13.02 15.05 17.98 13.89 14.18 13.40 15.06 17.42 15.51 13.50 19 13.63 14.76 17.92 14.98 13.55 15.77 18.81 14.55 14.79 13.96 15.78 18.23 16.28 14.08 20 14.14 15.41 18.69 15.65 14.07 16.48 19.61 15.20 15.38 14.50 16.48 19.02 17.04 14.64 21 14.64 16.05 19.43 16.30 14.57 17.16 20.38 15.83 15.96 15.03 17.16 19.78 17.78 15.20 22 15.13 16.67 20.16 16.95 15.06 17.83 21.14 16.46 16.52 15.54 17.83 20.51 18.51 15.73 23 15.61 17.27 20.87 17.59 15.53 18.48 21.87 17.08 17.07 16.04 18.47 21.23 19.24 16.26 24 16.07 17.87 21.55 18.23 16.00 19.12 22.59 17.69 17.60 16.54 19.10 21.93 19.97 16.78 25 16.52 18.44 22.22 18.85 16.45 19.73 23.28 18.29 18.12 17.02 19.72 22.61 20.69 17.28 26 16.96 19.00 22.87 19.46 16.89 20.34 23.96 18.89 18.63 17.48 20.32 23.27 21.40 17.77 27 17.38 19.55 23.50 20.07 17.31 20.92 24.62 19.47 19.12 17.94 20.90 23.92 22.10 18.24 28 17.79 20.08 24.11 20.66 17.73 21.50 25.27 20.05 19.60 18.38 21.47 24.55 22.80 18.71 29 18.19 20.60 24.71 21.24 18.13 22.05 25.89 20.62 20.07 18.81 22.02 25.16 23.49 19.16 30 18.58 21.10 25.29 21.81 18.52 22.59 26.50 21.17 20.52 19.23 22.56 25.76 24.17 19.60 

17
Table Ba-3. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector an

Discount Rate = 3.0 % (DOE) 

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lo

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West V

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal  - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.95 0.91 1.02 0.96 0.96 0.95 1.14 0.96 0.93 0.96 0.94 1.03 0.98 0.95  2 1.88 1.79 2.03 1.89 1.88 1.87 2.31 1.87 1.82 1.88 1.85 2.05 1.95 1.87  3 2.78 2.66 3.03 2.79 2.77 2.79 3.48 2.73 2.66 2.77 2.75 3.08 2.89 2.75  4 3.66 3.52 4.01 3.67 3.64 3.70 4.66 3.57 3.46 3.64 3.65 4.11 3.82 3.60  5 4.51 4.38 4.97 4.53 4.48 4.62 5.83 4.40 4.23 4.48 4.56 5.14 4.74 4.42  6 5.34 5.25 5.93 5.37 5.30 5.55 6.99 5.20 4.98 5.30 5.47 6.16 5.63 5.22  7 6.15 6.12 6.86 6.19 6.10 6.48 8.16 5.99 5.71 6.10 6.39 7.18 6.49 6.00  8 6.93 6.98 7.79 7.00 6.88 7.41 9.31 6.75 6.41 6.88 7.30 8.20 7.33 6.76  9 7.70 7.84 8.70 7.79 7.64 8.33 10.45 7.51 7.10 7.65 8.20 9.20 8.16 7.50 10 8.44 8.68 9.59 8.57 8.39 9.23 11.58 8.26 7.76 8.39 9.10 10.19 9.00 8.22 11 9.17 9.50 10.47 9.35 9.11 10.12 12.70 9.00 8.41 9.12 9.98 11.17 9.84 8.92 12 9.87 10.31 11.33 10.11 9.81 11.00 13.80 9.73 9.04 9.82 10.84 12.13 10.69 9.60 13 10.55 11.11 12.17 10.87 10.49 11.86 14.89 10.46 9.65 10.51 11.70 13.09 11.54 10.26 14 11.22 11.90 13.00 11.62 11.16 12.72 15.97 11.19 10.25 11.18 12.54 14.03 12.40 10.90 15 11.87 12.67 13.80 12.36 11.81 13.55 17.02 11.90 10.83 11.84 13.37 14.96 13.25 11.52 16 12.50 13.42 14.59 13.09 12.44 14.37 18.06 12.61 11.40 12.48 14.18 15.87 14.10 12.13 17 13.12 14.16 15.36 13.80 13.06 15.17 19.07 13.30 11.95 13.11 14.97 16.76 14.93 12.73 18 13.72 14.89 16.11 14.49 13.66 15.96 20.06 13.97 12.50 13.72 15.75 17.62 15.74 13.31 19 14.30 15.59 16.84 15.17 14.25 16.73 21.01 14.63 13.03 14.31 16.51 18.46 16.53 13.87 20 14.87 16.29 17.55 15.84 14.81 17.48 21.93 15.27 13.55 14.89 17.24 19.27 17.30 14.42 21 15.42 16.96 18.24 16.49 15.37 18.20 22.82 15.90 14.06 15.46 17.96 20.05 18.07 14.96 22 15.96 17.61 18.91 17.14 15.90 18.91 23.68 16.52 14.55 16.01 18.66 20.80 18.82 15.49 23 16.48 18.25 19.56 17.77 16.43 19.60 24.53 17.13 15.04 16.55 19.34 21.54 19.57 16.00 24 16.99 18.88 20.19 18.39 16.94 20.28 25.35 17.73 15.51 17.08 20.00 22.26 20.32 16.50 25 17.49 19.49 20.81 19.01 17.44 20.94 26.15 18.33 15.97 17.60 20.65 22.96 21.06 16.99 26 17.97 20.08 21.41 19.61 17.93 21.58 26.92 18.91 16.41 18.10 21.28 23.64 21.79 17.46 27 18.45 20.66 21.99 20.20 18.40 22.20 27.68 19.49 16.85 18.59 21.89 24.30 22.52 17.92 28 18.91 21.22 22.55 20.78 18.86 22.81 28.42 20.05 17.27 19.07 22.49 24.95 23.24 18.37 29 19.35 21.76 23.10 21.35 19.31 23.40 29.14 20.60 17.68 19.54 23.07 25.58 23.96 18.81 30 19.79 22.30 23.64 21.91 19.75 23.97 29.84 21.15 18.08 20.00 23.63 26.19 24.67 19.23 

18
Table Ba-4. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector an

Discount Rate = 3.0 % (DOE) 

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal  - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.97 0.91 0.99 0.95 0.97 0.88 1.10 0.96 0.97 0.96 0.88 0.86 0.96 0.95  2 1.92 1.77 1.97 1.88 1.91 1.71 2.24 1.87 1.92 1.89 1.72 1.66 1.90 1.88  3 2.84 2.63 2.94 2.77 2.81 2.53 3.38 2.73 2.85 2.79 2.56 2.47 2.80 2.77  4 3.73 3.48 3.89 3.64 3.68 3.35 4.53 3.57 3.75 3.67 3.39 3.29 3.69 3.65  5 4.59 4.33 4.82 4.49 4.52 4.17 5.69 4.39 4.63 4.50 4.22 4.11 4.56 4.50  6 5.41 5.17 5.75 5.33 5.32 5.00 6.86 5.20 5.49 5.30 5.05 4.93 5.42 5.32  7 6.21 6.01 6.66 6.16 6.08 5.82 8.02 5.99 6.33 6.07 5.89 5.75 6.27 6.12  8 6.98 6.84 7.55 6.98 6.82 6.64 9.16 6.78 7.14 6.82 6.72 6.56 7.12 6.90  9 7.72 7.67 8.44 7.80 7.53 7.46 10.30 7.57 7.94 7.53 7.55 7.37 7.97 7.66 10 8.44 8.49 9.31 8.61 8.22 8.26 11.43 8.36 8.72 8.22 8.37 8.17 8.83 8.40 11 9.14 9.30 10.16 9.41 8.89 9.07 12.55 9.14 9.48 8.89 9.19 8.96 9.69 9.14 12 9.82 10.09 11.00 10.20 9.54 9.86 13.65 9.90 10.22 9.55 9.99 9.74 10.53 9.85 13 10.49 10.88 11.81 10.98 10.18 10.64 14.73 10.66 10.96 10.18 10.78 10.51 11.37 10.56 14 11.13 11.65 12.62 11.75 10.80 11.41 15.79 11.40 11.67 10.80 11.56 11.27 12.19 11.25 15 11.76 12.40 13.40 12.51 11.40 12.17 16.84 12.14 12.36 11.41 12.33 12.01 13.01 11.92 16 12.37 13.15 14.17 13.26 11.99 12.91 17.87 12.86 13.04 11.99 13.08 12.74 13.82 12.57 17 12.97 13.87 14.91 13.99 12.55 13.64 18.88 13.58 13.71 12.56 13.82 13.45 14.62 13.21 18 13.54 14.59 15.64 14.71 13.09 14.36 19.86 14.28 14.36 13.11 14.54 14.15 15.40 13.84 19 14.09 15.28 16.35 15.42 13.61 15.06 20.81 14.97 14.99 13.64 15.25 14.82 16.18 14.45 20 14.63 15.96 17.05 16.12 14.11 15.74 21.74 15.64 15.61 14.15 15.93 15.47 16.94 15.04 21 15.15 16.63 17.72 16.80 14.60 16.40 22.63 16.31 16.22 14.64 16.60 16.09 17.68 15.62 22 15.65 17.27 18.37 17.47 15.07 17.04 23.50 16.96 16.81 15.12 17.25 16.70 18.42 16.19 23 16.14 17.89 19.01 18.13 15.53 17.67 24.34 17.60 17.39 15.58 17.88 17.29 19.15 16.75 24 16.62 18.50 19.62 18.79 15.98 18.28 25.16 18.24 17.95 16.04 18.50 17.87 19.87 17.28 25 17.09 19.09 20.22 19.44 16.41 18.87 25.96 18.87 18.50 16.48 19.10 18.43 20.59 17.81 26 17.54 19.66 20.80 20.07 16.83 19.45 26.73 19.49 19.03 16.91 19.68 18.98 21.30 18.32 27 17.98 20.23 21.37 20.69 17.24 20.02 27.49 20.09 19.55 17.33 20.25 19.51 22.00 18.82 28 18.40 20.77 21.92 21.30 17.63 20.57 28.23 20.69 20.05 17.73 20.81 20.03 22.70 19.30 29 18.82 21.30 22.45 21.90 18.02 21.10 28.95 21.28 20.54 18.12 21.35 20.54 23.38 19.77 30 19.22 21.82 22.97 22.49 18.39 21.62 29.65 21.85 21.01 18.50 21.88 21.03 24.06 20.23 

19
Table Ba-5. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use secto

Discount Rate = 3.0 % (DOE) 

United States Average 

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal  - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.96 0.92 1.02 0.94 0.96 0.94 0.82 0.95 0.97 0.96 0.92 1.01 0.97 0.96  2 1.90 1.81 2.04 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.60 1.85 1.92 1.88 1.80 2.00 1.93 1.88  3 2.81 2.69 3.05 2.73 2.75 2.77 2.39 2.70 2.84 2.77 2.68 3.00 2.85 2.77  4 3.69 3.56 4.04 3.59 3.61 3.67 3.19 3.53 3.73 3.64 3.56 4.00 3.76 3.63  5 4.54 4.44 5.01 4.43 4.43 4.58 3.99 4.33 4.58 4.47 4.44 5.00 4.65 4.47  6 5.37 5.32 5.97 5.25 5.23 5.50 4.80 5.12 5.42 5.29 5.32 5.99 5.53 5.28  7 6.17 6.20 6.92 6.06 6.01 6.41 5.60 5.89 6.24 6.08 6.21 6.98 6.38 6.08  8 6.94 7.08 7.86 6.86 6.76 7.33 6.40 6.66 7.03 6.85 7.09 7.96 7.22 6.84  9 7.70 7.94 8.78 7.65 7.49 8.23 7.19 7.41 7.80 7.59 7.97 8.94 8.06 7.59 10 8.42 8.79 9.69 8.43 8.20 9.12 7.98 8.16 8.56 8.32 8.83 9.90 8.91 8.32 11 9.13 9.63 10.58 9.21 8.89 10.00 8.76 8.90 9.29 9.03 9.69 10.85 9.75 9.03 12 9.81 10.46 11.46 9.97 9.56 10.87 9.55 9.63 10.00 9.72 10.53 11.79 10.59 9.72 13 10.48 11.27 12.31 10.72 10.22 11.72 10.33 10.35 10.70 10.39 11.36 12.72 11.42 10.39 14 11.12 12.07 13.15 11.47 10.85 12.56 11.10 11.06 11.38 11.04 12.17 13.64 12.26 11.05 15 11.75 12.85 13.97 12.20 11.47 13.39 11.86 11.77 12.04 11.68 12.97 14.54 13.09 11.69 16 12.35 13.62 14.77 12.92 12.07 14.20 12.59 12.46 12.68 12.30 13.76 15.42 13.91 12.31 17 12.95 14.37 15.56 13.63 12.65 14.99 13.32 13.14 13.31 12.90 14.53 16.29 14.72 12.92 18 13.52 15.11 16.32 14.32 13.21 15.77 14.02 13.80 13.93 13.49 15.29 17.13 15.52 13.51 19 14.08 15.82 17.07 15.00 13.76 16.52 14.71 14.45 14.53 14.07 16.02 17.94 16.29 14.09 20 14.62 16.52 17.79 15.67 14.29 17.26 15.38 15.09 15.12 14.62 16.74 18.73 17.05 14.65 21 15.14 17.20 18.50 16.33 14.81 17.98 16.04 15.71 15.69 15.17 17.43 19.49 17.80 15.20 22 15.65 17.86 19.18 16.97 15.31 18.67 16.67 16.32 16.25 15.70 18.11 20.23 18.54 15.74 23 16.15 18.51 19.85 17.60 15.80 19.35 17.29 16.93 16.80 16.21 18.77 20.95 19.27 16.27 24 16.64 19.14 20.50 18.23 16.28 20.02 17.90 17.52 17.33 16.72 19.41 21.65 19.99 16.78 25 17.11 19.76 21.12 18.85 16.74 20.67 18.50 18.11 17.85 17.21 20.04 22.34 20.71 17.28 26 17.57 20.35 21.73 19.45 17.20 21.30 19.07 18.69 18.35 17.69 20.65 23.01 21.42 17.76 27 18.02 20.93 22.33 20.04 17.63 21.91 19.64 19.26 18.84 18.16 21.24 23.66 22.13 18.24 28 18.45 21.50 22.90 20.62 18.06 22.51 20.19 19.81 19.31 18.62 21.82 24.29 22.83 18.70 29 18.87 22.05 23.46 21.19 18.48 23.09 20.72 20.36 19.78 19.06 22.38 24.91 23.52 19.15 30 19.28 22.59 24.01 21.75 18.88 23.66 21.24 20.90 20.23 19.50 22.93 25.51 24.20 19.58 

20
21

B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 

The OMB Modified Uniform Present Value (OMB UPV*) factors presented in the "Bb" tables, 

based on the current OMB discount rates (0.8 % short term and 2.3 % long term), are for 

calculating the present value of energy costs accruing over 1 to 30 years when conducting a lifecycle cost analysis of a federal project not explicitly related to energy or water conservation or 

renewable resources. Factors are reported in the "Bb" tables for 30 years. These factors apply 

only to annual energy usage that is assumed to be the same each year over the service period. 

The BLCC computer program can compute the present value of energy usage and savings that 

are not the same in each year. 

Examples of How to Use the OMB UPV* Factors: 

OMB UPV* (OMB discount rate): To compute the present value over 30 years of electricity 

costs associated with the occupancy of a federal office building in Ohio (where energy 

conservation is not a specific consideration in the LCC analysis), go to Table Bb-2, find the 

OMB UPV* factor for commercial electricity for 30 years (20.30), and multiply this factor by 

the annual electricity cost in base-date dollars. 

Note: Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate) is usually 

different for years 1 to 10 than for years 11 to 30, these factors cannot be used with a planning/ 

design/construction period as shown above for the Ba tables (DOE discount rate). Use the BLCC 

computer program for this purpose. For further explanation of the use of UPV* factors, see 

NIST Handbook 135. 
Table Bb-1. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector an

Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB Circular A-94a) 

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal  - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 1.01 0.95 1.03 0.97 0.95 0.99 0.82 0.97 1.02 0.94 1.00 0.98 0.99 1.00  2 2.03 1.88 2.07 1.92 1.86 1.99 1.61 1.91 2.05 1.85 2.00 1.96 1.97 2.00  3 3.03 2.83 3.12 2.84 2.75 3.00 2.44 2.80 3.06 2.75 3.01 2.97 2.93 2.99  4 4.03 3.79 4.18 3.76 3.63 4.02 3.28 3.67 4.07 3.65 4.03 4.00 3.88 3.97  5 5.01 4.77 5.24 4.67 4.50 5.07 4.15 4.54 5.07 4.54 5.09 5.06 4.82 4.95  6 5.96 5.78 6.30 5.59 5.36 6.15 5.04 5.41 6.06 5.44 6.17 6.14 5.75 5.93  7 6.90 6.82 7.38 6.51 6.22 7.26 5.96 6.28 7.05 6.34 7.28 7.24 6.69 6.90  8 7.83 7.86 8.46 7.44 7.07 8.39 6.88 7.15 8.03 7.25 8.40 8.34 7.64 7.86  9 8.75 8.92 9.54 8.37 7.93 9.53 7.81 8.02 9.00 8.18 9.54 9.46 8.59 8.82 10 9.65 9.99 10.63 9.31 8.79 10.67 8.77 8.90 9.98 9.12 10.69 10.60 9.55 9.77 11 9.67 10.11 10.73 9.40 8.85 10.81 8.90 8.98 10.03 9.22 10.83 10.74 9.64 9.82 12 10.41 11.01 11.65 10.20 9.57 11.78 9.74 9.72 10.84 10.01 11.80 11.73 10.45 10.61 13 11.12 11.90 12.55 10.98 10.27 12.75 10.57 10.46 11.62 10.80 12.77 12.72 11.26 11.38 14 11.81 12.79 13.44 11.77 10.95 13.71 11.40 11.19 12.39 11.58 13.72 13.69 12.06 12.13 15 12.48 13.66 14.31 12.54 11.62 14.65 12.22 11.91 13.15 12.34 14.67 14.65 12.86 12.87 16 13.12 14.52 15.17 13.30 12.27 15.59 13.02 12.62 13.90 13.09 15.60 15.60 13.64 13.59 17 13.75 15.37 16.01 14.06 12.91 16.51 13.82 13.32 14.63 13.83 16.52 16.53 14.42 14.31 18 14.37 16.21 16.84 14.81 13.53 17.42 14.60 14.01 15.35 14.56 17.43 17.44 15.19 15.01 19 14.96 17.03 17.66 15.55 14.14 18.31 15.37 14.70 16.06 15.27 18.32 18.34 15.95 15.69 20 15.54 17.84 18.45 16.28 14.73 19.18 16.12 15.37 16.75 15.97 19.18 19.23 16.71 16.36 21 16.11 18.63 19.23 17.00 15.31 20.03 16.86 16.04 17.43 16.66 20.04 20.09 17.45 17.02 22 16.67 19.40 20.00 17.71 15.88 20.87 17.59 16.69 18.10 17.34 20.87 20.94 18.18 17.67 23 17.22 20.16 20.74 18.41 16.44 21.69 18.30 17.33 18.76 18.01 21.69 21.77 18.90 18.30 24 17.76 20.91 21.47 19.10 16.99 22.50 19.01 17.97 19.41 18.67 22.50 22.60 19.61 18.93 25 18.28 21.64 22.18 19.78 17.53 23.30 19.70 18.59 20.04 19.32 23.29 23.40 20.32 19.54 26 18.80 22.36 22.88 20.46 18.05 24.08 20.38 19.22 20.66 19.96 24.07 24.19 21.02 20.14 27 19.29 23.06 23.56 21.13 18.56 24.84 21.04 19.83 21.27 20.58 24.83 24.97 21.72 20.72 28 19.78 23.75 24.23 21.78 19.06 25.58 21.70 20.44 21.87 21.19 25.57 25.73 22.41 21.30 29 20.25 24.42 24.89 22.43 19.54 26.32 22.34 21.04 22.45 21.78 26.30 26.47 23.11 21.86 30 20.71 25.08 25.53 23.07 20.01 27.03 22.97 21.64 23.02 22.36 27.02 27.20 23.80 22.41 

aOMB discount rate as of April 2011. 

22
Table Bb-2. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector an

Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB Circular A-94a) 

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal  - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.96 0.89 1.07 0.95 0.98 0.93 1.08 0.97 1.00 0.98 0.93 1.05 0.99 0.98  2 1.93 1.75 2.18 1.89 1.94 1.84 2.20 1.90 2.01 1.96 1.84 2.13 1.97 1.95  3 2.88 2.63 3.29 2.81 2.89 2.76 3.35 2.80 3.02 2.93 2.77 3.22 2.95 2.90  4 3.83 3.51 4.41 3.74 3.83 3.70 4.51 3.69 4.00 3.88 3.71 4.34 3.93 3.83  5 4.77 4.42 5.55 4.67 4.76 4.66 5.69 4.59 4.97 4.83 4.67 5.47 4.92 4.76  6 5.70 5.36 6.69 5.60 5.67 5.66 6.89 5.48 5.95 5.77 5.67 6.63 5.91 5.68  7 6.60 6.31 7.85 6.53 6.58 6.68 8.10 6.38 6.92 6.69 6.69 7.80 6.91 6.60  8 7.50 7.29 9.02 7.47 7.46 7.72 9.33 7.29 7.88 7.60 7.73 9.00 7.92 7.51  9 8.38 8.27 10.20 8.43 8.34 8.77 10.58 8.22 8.84 8.50 8.77 10.20 8.95 8.42 10 9.25 9.26 11.38 9.41 9.20 9.82 11.83 9.16 9.78 9.39 9.83 11.42 10.02 9.31 11 9.28 9.37 11.50 9.51 9.22 9.95 11.97 9.26 9.84 9.43 9.96 11.56 10.15 9.36 12 9.99 10.20 12.51 10.34 9.93 10.85 13.04 10.07 10.63 10.16 10.86 12.60 11.07 10.11 13 10.68 11.02 13.49 11.17 10.61 11.74 14.09 10.87 11.40 10.87 11.75 13.62 11.99 10.84 14 11.35 11.84 14.47 12.00 11.28 12.62 15.13 11.67 12.16 11.57 12.63 14.64 12.90 11.57 15 12.01 12.65 15.43 12.81 11.94 13.49 16.16 12.46 12.90 12.26 13.50 15.64 13.82 12.28 16 12.65 13.44 16.38 13.63 12.58 14.35 17.17 13.24 13.63 12.92 14.36 16.63 14.73 12.98 17 13.28 14.23 17.31 14.43 13.20 15.20 18.17 14.02 14.35 13.58 15.21 17.61 15.64 13.67 18 13.90 15.00 18.23 15.22 13.82 16.04 19.15 14.79 15.06 14.22 16.05 18.56 16.53 14.34 19 14.50 15.77 19.13 16.00 14.42 16.86 20.09 15.54 15.75 14.86 16.87 19.49 17.41 15.00 20 15.09 16.52 20.01 16.76 15.01 17.67 21.01 16.28 16.43 15.48 17.67 20.38 18.27 15.65 21 15.67 17.25 20.88 17.52 15.59 18.46 21.91 17.01 17.10 16.09 18.46 21.26 19.13 16.28 22 16.24 17.97 21.72 18.28 16.15 19.23 22.78 17.74 17.75 16.69 19.23 22.11 19.98 16.91 23 16.79 18.68 22.55 19.02 16.71 19.99 23.64 18.46 18.40 17.27 19.99 22.95 20.84 17.52 24 17.34 19.38 23.36 19.77 17.26 20.74 24.48 19.18 19.03 17.85 20.73 23.78 21.69 18.13 25 17.87 20.06 24.15 20.51 17.79 21.48 25.31 19.90 19.64 18.42 21.46 24.58 22.54 18.73 26 18.39 20.73 24.92 21.24 18.32 22.20 26.12 20.61 20.25 18.98 22.17 25.38 23.39 19.31 27 18.90 21.39 25.68 21.97 18.83 22.90 26.91 21.31 20.84 19.53 22.88 26.15 24.24 19.88 28 19.40 22.03 26.42 22.68 19.33 23.59 27.69 22.01 21.42 20.06 23.56 26.92 25.08 20.45 29 19.88 22.66 27.15 23.39 19.82 24.27 28.46 22.70 21.99 20.59 24.24 27.66 25.93 21.00 30 20.36 23.28 27.86 24.09 20.30 24.94 29.21 23.39 22.55 21.10 24.89 28.40 26.76 21.54 

aOMB discount rate as of April 2011. 

23
Table Bb-3. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector an

Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB Circular A-94a) 

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lo

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West V

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal  - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.97 0.93 1.04 0.98 0.98 0.97 1.16 0.98 0.96 0.98 0.96 1.05 1.01 0.97  2 1.94 1.85 2.10 1.95 1.95 1.93 2.38 1.93 1.88 1.94 1.91 2.12 2.01 1.93  3 2.91 2.77 3.16 2.91 2.90 2.91 3.64 2.85 2.77 2.89 2.87 3.22 3.02 2.87  4 3.86 3.71 4.23 3.87 3.84 3.91 4.92 3.77 3.64 3.83 3.85 4.34 4.04 3.80  5 4.81 4.67 5.31 4.83 4.77 4.93 6.22 4.69 4.51 4.77 4.86 5.49 5.06 4.71  6 5.75 5.66 6.39 5.79 5.71 5.99 7.55 5.60 5.36 5.71 5.90 6.65 6.07 5.63  7 6.69 6.67 7.48 6.74 6.64 7.07 8.90 6.51 6.21 6.64 6.97 7.84 7.07 6.53  8 7.63 7.70 8.58 7.70 7.57 8.17 10.27 7.42 7.04 7.57 8.05 9.04 8.07 7.44  9 8.56 8.74 9.69 8.66 8.49 9.29 11.66 8.34 7.87 8.50 9.15 10.26 9.08 8.33 10 9.48 9.78 10.79 9.63 9.42 10.41 13.06 9.27 8.70 9.42 10.26 11.49 10.12 9.23 11 9.53 9.90 10.90 9.72 9.47 10.54 13.23 9.36 8.75 9.48 10.39 11.63 10.24 9.27 12 10.30 10.78 11.83 10.56 10.23 11.49 14.43 10.16 9.43 10.25 11.33 12.68 11.16 10.01 13 11.04 11.65 12.75 11.38 10.98 12.44 15.62 10.96 10.10 11.00 12.27 13.73 12.09 10.73 14 11.78 12.51 13.66 12.21 11.71 13.38 16.80 11.75 10.75 11.74 13.20 14.76 13.03 11.44 15 12.49 13.37 14.55 13.03 12.43 14.30 17.97 12.55 11.40 12.47 14.11 15.79 13.98 12.13 16 13.20 14.21 15.43 13.84 13.14 15.22 19.12 13.33 12.03 13.18 15.02 16.80 14.92 12.81 17 13.89 15.04 16.29 14.64 13.83 16.12 20.26 14.11 12.65 13.89 15.91 17.80 15.86 13.48 18 14.57 15.86 17.14 15.42 14.51 17.01 21.38 14.87 13.27 14.58 16.79 18.78 16.78 14.13 19 15.23 16.67 17.97 16.20 15.18 17.89 22.46 15.61 13.87 15.26 17.65 19.73 17.67 14.78 20 15.88 17.46 18.78 16.96 15.83 18.74 23.52 16.35 14.47 15.92 18.49 20.66 18.56 15.41 21 16.52 18.23 19.58 17.71 16.47 19.58 24.54 17.08 15.05 16.57 19.32 21.56 19.44 16.03 22 17.15 19.00 20.36 18.46 17.09 20.40 25.55 17.80 15.63 17.21 20.13 22.44 20.32 16.64 23 17.76 19.74 21.12 19.20 17.71 21.21 26.53 18.51 16.20 17.85 20.92 23.30 21.19 17.24 24 18.36 20.48 21.87 19.94 18.31 22.01 27.50 19.22 16.75 18.47 21.71 24.14 22.07 17.83 25 18.95 21.20 22.60 20.67 18.90 22.79 28.45 19.93 17.30 19.08 22.47 24.97 22.95 18.41 26 19.53 21.91 23.31 21.39 19.48 23.55 29.38 20.62 17.83 19.68 23.22 25.79 23.83 18.97 27 20.10 22.60 24.01 22.10 20.05 24.30 30.29 21.31 18.35 20.27 23.96 26.58 24.71 19.53 28 20.65 23.28 24.69 22.80 20.61 25.04 31.18 22.00 18.86 20.85 24.68 27.37 25.58 20.07 29 21.20 23.95 25.36 23.49 21.16 25.76 32.06 22.67 19.37 21.42 25.39 28.13 26.45 20.60 30 21.73 24.60 26.02 24.18 21.70 26.46 32.92 23.34 19.86 21.98 26.08 28.89 27.32 21.12 

aOMB discount rate as of April 2011. 

24
Table Bb-4. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector an

Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB Circular A-94a) 

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal  - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.99 0.93 1.01 0.97 0.99 0.89 1.13 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.90 0.87 0.98 0.97  2 1.98 1.83 2.04 1.94 1.97 1.76 2.31 1.93 1.98 1.95 1.78 1.72 1.96 1.94  3 2.96 2.75 3.07 2.89 2.93 2.64 3.53 2.85 2.97 2.92 2.67 2.58 2.93 2.90  4 3.94 3.67 4.10 3.84 3.89 3.54 4.78 3.76 3.96 3.87 3.57 3.47 3.89 3.85  5 4.89 4.62 5.15 4.79 4.81 4.45 6.08 4.68 4.94 4.80 4.50 4.38 4.86 4.79  6 5.83 5.58 6.20 5.74 5.72 5.39 7.40 5.60 5.91 5.71 5.45 5.32 5.84 5.73  7 6.76 6.55 7.26 6.71 6.62 6.35 8.75 6.52 6.89 6.61 6.42 6.27 6.83 6.66  8 7.67 7.54 8.32 7.68 7.49 7.32 10.12 7.46 7.86 7.49 7.41 7.24 7.84 7.59  9 8.57 8.54 9.40 8.68 8.36 8.31 11.50 8.42 8.82 8.36 8.42 8.22 8.88 8.51 10 9.47 9.56 10.47 9.68 9.21 9.32 12.90 9.40 9.79 9.22 9.44 9.21 9.95 9.43 11 9.50 9.68 10.58 9.80 9.24 9.45 13.07 9.51 9.86 9.24 9.57 9.33 10.09 9.50 12 10.24 10.55 11.48 10.65 9.95 10.31 14.27 10.34 10.67 9.95 10.44 10.18 11.00 10.28 13 10.97 11.40 12.38 11.51 10.64 11.16 15.45 11.16 11.47 10.65 11.31 11.02 11.92 11.05 14 11.68 12.25 13.26 12.35 11.33 12.01 16.62 11.99 12.25 11.33 12.17 11.85 12.82 11.81 15 12.38 13.09 14.13 13.19 11.99 12.85 17.78 12.80 13.02 12.00 13.01 12.68 13.73 12.56 16 13.06 13.92 14.98 14.02 12.64 13.67 18.93 13.61 13.78 12.65 13.85 13.49 14.63 13.28 17 13.72 14.73 15.82 14.85 13.27 14.49 20.06 14.41 14.52 13.29 14.68 14.29 15.53 14.00 18 14.37 15.54 16.65 15.67 13.89 15.30 21.17 15.21 15.26 13.91 15.50 15.08 16.42 14.71 19 15.00 16.33 17.46 16.47 14.48 16.10 22.26 15.99 15.98 14.51 16.30 15.84 17.30 15.40 20 15.62 17.11 18.25 17.27 15.06 16.88 23.32 16.76 16.70 15.09 17.09 16.58 18.17 16.08 21 16.22 17.87 19.03 18.06 15.62 17.64 24.35 17.53 17.40 15.66 17.86 17.31 19.03 16.76 22 16.80 18.62 19.78 18.84 16.17 18.39 25.35 18.29 18.08 16.22 18.61 18.01 19.88 17.41 23 17.37 19.35 20.52 19.61 16.70 19.12 26.34 19.04 18.76 16.76 19.35 18.70 20.74 18.06 24 17.94 20.06 21.25 20.39 17.23 19.84 27.30 19.79 19.42 17.30 20.08 19.38 21.59 18.70 25 18.49 20.77 21.96 21.15 17.74 20.55 28.25 20.53 20.07 17.82 20.79 20.05 22.44 19.32 26 19.03 21.45 22.65 21.91 18.24 21.24 29.18 21.27 20.70 18.34 21.49 20.70 23.29 19.93 27 19.56 22.13 23.33 22.66 18.73 21.92 30.09 22.00 21.33 18.84 22.18 21.34 24.13 20.53 28 20.07 22.79 24.00 23.40 19.21 22.58 30.98 22.72 21.93 19.33 22.85 21.97 24.97 21.11 29 20.58 23.44 24.65 24.13 19.68 23.24 31.86 23.44 22.53 19.81 23.51 22.59 25.81 21.69 30 21.07 24.07 25.29 24.85 20.14 23.87 32.72 24.15 23.11 20.27 24.15 23.20 26.64 22.25 

aOMB discount rate as of April 2011. 

25
Table Bb-5. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector an

Discount Rate = 0.8 % (years 1 to 10) and 2.3 % (years 11 to 30), (OMB Circular A-94a) 

United States Average 

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL  N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal  - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----  1 0.98 0.94 1.04 0.97 0.98 0.96 0.84 0.97 0.99 0.98 0.94 1.03 1.00 0.98  2 1.96 1.87 2.11 1.92 1.93 1.92 1.65 1.92 1.98 1.94 1.86 2.07 1.99 1.94  3 2.93 2.81 3.18 2.85 2.87 2.89 2.50 2.82 2.97 2.89 2.80 3.13 2.98 2.89  4 3.89 3.76 4.26 3.79 3.80 3.88 3.37 3.72 3.93 3.83 3.75 4.22 3.97 3.83  5 4.84 4.74 5.35 4.72 4.72 4.89 4.26 4.62 4.89 4.77 4.73 5.33 4.96 4.76  6 5.78 5.74 6.44 5.66 5.64 5.93 5.18 5.51 5.84 5.69 5.74 6.46 5.96 5.69  7 6.72 6.76 7.55 6.60 6.54 7.00 6.12 6.41 6.79 6.61 6.77 7.62 6.95 6.61  8 7.64 7.81 8.66 7.55 7.43 8.08 7.06 7.32 7.73 7.53 7.82 8.78 7.95 7.52  9 8.55 8.86 9.78 8.51 8.32 9.18 8.02 8.24 8.67 8.43 8.89 9.96 8.97 8.43 10 9.45 9.91 10.91 9.48 9.20 10.29 9.00 9.16 9.60 9.34 9.96 11.16 10.02 9.34 11 9.49 10.03 11.02 9.58 9.25 10.42 9.13 9.26 9.66 9.39 10.09 11.30 10.15 9.39 12 10.23 10.93 11.96 10.41 9.97 11.36 9.98 10.05 10.44 10.13 11.00 12.32 11.06 10.14 13 10.96 11.81 12.90 11.23 10.69 12.29 10.84 10.84 11.20 10.87 11.91 13.34 11.97 10.87 14 11.67 12.69 13.82 12.05 11.38 13.22 11.69 11.62 11.94 11.59 12.81 14.35 12.89 11.59 15 12.36 13.56 14.73 12.86 12.07 14.13 12.52 12.40 12.67 12.29 13.70 15.35 13.81 12.30 16 13.04 14.42 15.63 13.67 12.74 15.03 13.34 13.17 13.39 12.98 14.57 16.33 14.73 13.00 17 13.70 15.26 16.51 14.46 13.39 15.92 14.16 13.94 14.10 13.66 15.44 17.30 15.64 13.68 18 14.35 16.09 17.37 15.25 14.03 16.80 14.96 14.69 14.80 14.33 16.29 18.25 16.54 14.35 19 14.99 16.91 18.22 16.02 14.65 17.66 15.74 15.43 15.49 14.98 17.13 19.18 17.42 15.01 20 15.61 17.71 19.05 16.79 15.26 18.51 16.51 16.15 16.16 15.62 17.95 20.08 18.29 15.66 21 16.21 18.49 19.87 17.54 15.86 19.33 17.26 16.87 16.82 16.25 18.75 20.96 19.15 16.29 22 16.81 19.26 20.66 18.29 16.44 20.14 18.00 17.59 17.47 16.86 19.53 21.82 20.01 16.91 23 17.39 20.02 21.44 19.03 17.01 20.94 18.73 18.29 18.11 17.47 20.30 22.66 20.86 17.53 24 17.96 20.76 22.20 19.77 17.57 21.72 19.44 19.00 18.73 18.06 21.06 23.49 21.72 18.13 25 18.52 21.49 22.94 20.50 18.13 22.49 20.15 19.69 19.35 18.65 21.81 24.31 22.57 18.73 26 19.07 22.21 23.67 21.22 18.67 23.24 20.84 20.38 19.94 19.23 22.54 25.10 23.42 19.31 27 19.61 22.90 24.39 21.93 19.20 23.98 21.51 21.06 20.53 19.79 23.25 25.89 24.27 19.87 28 20.13 23.59 25.08 22.63 19.71 24.71 22.18 21.74 21.11 20.34 23.95 26.65 25.11 20.43 29 20.64 24.26 25.77 23.33 20.22 25.41 22.83 22.41 21.67 20.88 24.64 27.41 25.95 20.98 30 21.15 24.92 26.44 24.01 20.71 26.11 23.47 23.07 22.23 21.41 25.31 28.14 26.79 21.51 

aOMB discount rate as of April 2011. 

26
27 

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real) 

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected fuel price indices for the four Census regions and 

for the United States. These indices, when multiplied by annual energy costs computed at basedate prices (i.e., as of April 1, 2011), provide estimates of future-year costs (also as of April 1) in 

constant base-date dollars. Constant-dollar cost estimates are needed when discounting is 

performed with a real discount rate (i.e., a rate that does not include general price inflation). 

These indices were used in the calculation of the UPV* factors for energy prices in the Ba and 

Bb tables in this publication. While they are based on April 1 energy prices to maintain 

consistency in the computation of these UPV* factors, the level of precision implied here is not 

required for most LCC analyses. That is, the analyst need not calibrate base-year energy prices 

precisely to April 1, 2011 levels to use these indices (or the corresponding UPV* factors); 

instead, the analyst should use current price levels as of the base-date of the LCC analysis, 

regardless of the time of the year that the study is undertaken. 

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial coal in 2015 in Connecticut (in constant 2011 dollars), go to 

Table Ca-1, find the year 2015 index for industrial coal (1.01), and multiply by the price for 

industrial coal in Connecticut in 2011. 

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135. 

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage 

change compounded annually) for selected periods from 2011 to 2041 for the four Census 

regions and for the overall United States. Note that these are real rates exclusive of general price 

inflation. Their use results in prices expressed in constant dollars. 

The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca 

tables so that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided 

primarily to accommodate computer programs (such as BLCC) which require price escalation 

rates as inputs. 

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the 

indices in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices 

include year-to-year information rather than averages over a number of years. 

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates: 

To estimate the unit price of residential natural gas at the end of 2021 (p21) in Wyoming using 

the DOE energy price escalation rates, go to Table Cb-4 and find the 2011 to 2016 and the 2016 

to 2021 escalation rates for residential natural gas (-0.2 % for 5 years and 2.0 % for 5 years, 

respectively). Enter these values and the unit price of residential natural gas in Wyoming in 2011 

(p11) into the following formula. Then solve for the 2021 energy price (stated in 2011 dollars): 
28 

( )

( )( )

( )( )

1.093

0.99 1.1041

1 0.002 1 0.02

1 1

1

11

11`

5 5

11

21 11 1 2

1

0

1 2

= ×

= × ×

= × − × +

= × + × +

= ×∏ + =

p

p

p

p p e e

p p e

k k

k N

i

y i

i

where py = price at end of year y; 

 p0 = unit price at base date; 

 ei = annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal 

 form); and 

 ki = number of years over which escalation rate ei occurs. 

Note that the compounded escalation rate factor (1.093) corresponds to the fuel price index in 

region 4, residential natural gas, for the year 2021 in table Ca-4 (1.09). 

The data in the Ca and Cb tables on the following pages are reported for the four Census regions 

and the U.S. average. Figure B-1 on page 13 presents a map showing the states corresponding to 

the four Census regions. The Census regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, 

Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of 

federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under the circumstances," 

and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for guidance. 
Table Ca-1. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector an

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Sector and Fuel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Residential  Electricity 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.02 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96  Distillate Oil 0.96 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.02 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.18  LPG 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20  Natural Gas 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.05 Commercial  Electricity 0.96 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94  Distillate Oil 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.14 1.17 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.27 1.28  Residual Oil 0.83 0.80 0.84 0.88 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.10  Natural Gas 0.98 0.95 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.98  Coal 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.06 Industrial  Electricity 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.05  Distillate Oil 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.10 1.14 1.17 1.20 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.28  Residual Oil 0.99 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.10 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.26 1.30  Natural Gas 1.00 1.00 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.05 1.07  Coal 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.03 1.08 1.12 1.15 1.16 1.19 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.27 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

29
Table Ca-1, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector 

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Sector and Fuel 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Residential  Electricity 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92  Distillate Oil 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.30 1.30  LPG 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.26  Natural Gas 1.10 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.23 Commercial  Electricity 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94  Distillate Oil 1.34 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.41  Residual Oil 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.23  Natural Gas 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.12 1.14  Coal 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.13 Industrial  Electricity 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.15  Distillate Oil 1.34 1.35 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.40  Residual Oil 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.42 1.43 1.43  Natural Gas 1.13 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.27 1.29  Coal 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.08 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.32 1.32 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.36 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

30
Table Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel ty

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Sector and Fuel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Residential  Electricity 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93  Distillate Oil 0.90 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09  LPG 1.08 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.25 1.27 1.28 1.30 1.32  Natural Gas 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.07 1.09 Commercial  Electricity 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92  Distillate Oil 0.93 0.92 0.95 0.97 1.01 1.04 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.16 1.18  Residual Oil 1.09 1.14 1.17 1.20 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.32 1.34 1.36 1.38 1.40  Natural Gas 0.98 0.95 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06  Coal 1.00 1.03 1.03 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 Industrial  Electricity 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.96  Distillate Oil 0.94 0.93 0.95 0.97 1.01 1.04 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.17 1.18  Residual Oil 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.15 1.18 1.21 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.36  Natural Gas 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.11 1.15 1.18 1.20  Coal 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.02 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.27 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

31
Table Ca-2, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector 

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Sector and Fuel 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Residential  Electricity 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94  Distillate Oil 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.21  LPG 1.36 1.37 1.38 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.40 1.40 1.40  Natural Gas 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.24 1.26 1.29 1.31 1.32 1.34 Commercial  Electricity 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95  Distillate Oil 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.30  Residual Oil 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.44 1.44 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.47  Natural Gas 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.25 1.26 1.28 1.30  Coal 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.10 Industrial  Electricity 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01  Distillate Oil 1.24 1.25 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.29  Residual Oil 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.42 1.42 1.41 1.41 1.42 1.42 1.43 1.43 1.44  Natural Gas 1.31 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.38 1.41 1.44 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.56  Coal 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.37 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

32
Table Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel ty

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, GeKentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Car

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Sector and Fuel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Residential  Electricity 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00  Distillate Oil 0.94 0.93 0.95 0.97 1.00 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15  LPG 1.05 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.23  Natural Gas 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 Commercial  Electricity 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00  Distillate Oil 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.18 1.20 1.21 1.24 1.25  Residual Oil 1.17 1.24 1.28 1.32 1.36 1.39 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.52 1.54 1.57  Natural Gas 0.99 0.97 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05  Coal 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.90 Industrial  Electricity 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01  Distillate Oil 0.97 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.24  Residual Oil 1.06 1.09 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.28 1.31 1.33 1.36 1.38  Natural Gas 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.09 1.13 1.16 1.20  Coal 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.01 1.06 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.25 1.26 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

33
Table Ca-3, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector 

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, GeKentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Car

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Sector and Fuel 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Residential  Electricity 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05  Distillate Oil 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28  LPG 1.26 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29  Natural Gas 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.31 Commercial  Electricity 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05  Distillate Oil 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.38 1.38  Residual Oil 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.67 1.66 1.65 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.67 1.68 1.69  Natural Gas 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.27  Coal 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97 Industrial  Electricity 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.09  Distillate Oil 1.30 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.36  Residual Oil 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.46 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.47 1.48  Natural Gas 1.36 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.45 1.48 1.52 1.55 1.58 1.62  Coal 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.31 1.32 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.36 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

34
Table Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel ty

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Sector and Fuel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Residential  Electricity 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97  Distillate Oil 0.93 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.13  LPG 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.18 1.19  Natural Gas 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 Commercial  Electricity 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93  Distillate Oil 0.90 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.06 1.09 1.11 1.13  Residual Oil 1.14 1.20 1.25 1.29 1.35 1.39 1.42 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.54 1.57  Natural Gas 0.99 0.97 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.07 1.09  Coal 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 Industrial  Electricity 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93  Distillate Oil 0.91 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.14  Residual Oil 0.88 0.86 0.89 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11  Natural Gas 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.18 1.20  Coal 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.02 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.00 1.04 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.15 1.18 1.20 1.23 1.22 1.23 1.24 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

35
Table Ca-4, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector 

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Sector and Fuel 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Residential  Electricity 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98  Distillate Oil 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.25  LPG 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.26  Natural Gas 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.31 1.34 1.35 1.37 1.38 Commercial  Electricity 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91  Distillate Oil 1.19 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.25 1.25  Residual Oil 1.65 1.66 1.67 1.68 1.68 1.66 1.66 1.66 1.67 1.67 1.68 1.68  Natural Gas 1.17 1.18 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.31 1.33 1.35  Coal 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.14 1.15 1.15 Industrial  Electricity 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93  Distillate Oil 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.27  Residual Oil 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.17 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19  Natural Gas 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.36 1.37 1.39 1.41 1.44 1.48 1.50 1.53 1.56  Coal 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.33 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

36
Table Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector an

United States Average 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Sector and Fuel 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Residential  Electricity 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.97  Distillate Oil 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.16 1.17  LPG 1.05 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.25  Natural Gas 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 Commercial  Electricity 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96  Distillate Oil 0.97 0.97 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.23  Residual Oil 0.85 0.83 0.87 0.90 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.13  Natural Gas 0.98 0.96 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.04  Coal 1.00 1.01 1.01 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 Industrial  Electricity 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98  Distillate Oil 0.95 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.19 1.20  Residual Oil 1.04 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.16 1.19 1.22 1.24 1.27 1.29 1.32 1.35  Natural Gas 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.10 1.13 1.16 1.19  Coal 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.25 1.26 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

37
Table Ca-5, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector 

United States Average 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Sector and Fuel 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -Residential  Electricity 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99  Distillate Oil 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.29  LPG 1.29 1.30 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.32  Natural Gas 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.25 1.27 1.29 1.30 1.31 Commercial  Electricity 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98  Distillate Oil 1.30 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.36  Residual Oil 1.19 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.25 1.25  Natural Gas 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.16 1.18 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.24 1.26  Coal 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.08 1.09 Industrial  Electricity 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.04  Distillate Oil 1.26 1.27 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.32  Residual Oil 1.42 1.43 1.43 1.43 1.42 1.42 1.42 1.42 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.45  Natural Gas 1.32 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.44 1.48 1.51 1.53 1.56  Coal 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.05 Transportation  Motor Gasoline 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.36 ----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

38
39

Table Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation, 

by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 

 Percentage change compounded annually 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 0.2 -0.4 

 Distillate Oil 0.5 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 

 LPG 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 

 Natural Gas -0.9 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 

Commercial 

 Electricity -2.0 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 

 Distillate Oil 1.8 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 

 Residual Oil -2.0 2.6 2.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 

 Natural Gas -2.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.4 

 Coal 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 

Industrial 

 Electricity -1.4 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 

 Distillate Oil 1.9 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 

 Residual Oil 1.9 2.2 1.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 

 Natural Gas -0.4 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.9 

 Coal 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 3.1 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
40

Table Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation, 

by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 

 Percentage change compounded annually 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.0 

 Distillate Oil -1.1 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 

 LPG 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.2 

 Natural Gas -0.7 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 

Commercial 

 Electricity -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 

 Distillate Oil 0.1 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 

 Residual Oil 4.2 2.0 1.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 

 Natural Gas -1.4 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.6 1.4 

 Coal 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 

Industrial 

 Electricity -0.3 -0.5 -0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 

 Distillate Oil 0.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 

 Residual Oil 3.4 2.2 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 

 Natural Gas 0.6 2.3 2.2 1.2 2.0 2.0 

 Coal -0.7 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 3.0 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
41

Table Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation, 

by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, 

Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South 

Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 

 Percentage change compounded annually 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 

 Distillate Oil 0.0 2.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.2 

 LPG 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.2 

 Natural Gas 0.0 1.1 1.8 0.9 1.4 1.0 

Commercial 

 Electricity -0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 

 Distillate Oil 1.3 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 

 Residual Oil 6.3 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 

 Natural Gas -0.9 1.1 2.0 0.8 1.4 1.2 

 Coal -2.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 

Industrial 

 Electricity -0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 

 Distillate Oil 1.0 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 

 Residual Oil 3.6 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 

 Natural Gas 1.2 1.2 3.4 1.0 2.1 2.1 

 Coal -1.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 2.8 1.4 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
42

Table Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation, 

by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 

 Percentage change compounded annually 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity -0.1 -0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 

 Distillate Oil -0.4 2.3 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.2 

 LPG 1.6 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 

 Natural Gas -0.2 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.1 

Commercial 

 Electricity -0.7 -0.9 0.3 -0.7 -0.0 -0.1 

 Distillate Oil -1.0 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil 6.2 2.4 1.5 0.5 -0.0 0.3 

 Natural Gas -1.0 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 

 Coal 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 

Industrial 

 Electricity -0.7 -0.8 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -0.0 

 Distillate Oil -0.7 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 

 Residual Oil -1.0 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 

 Natural Gas 0.1 2.8 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.8 

 Coal -0.3 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 2.2 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
43

Table Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation, 

by end-use sector and fuel type. 

United States Average 

 Percentage change compounded annually 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity -0.2 -0.2 -0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 

 Distillate Oil 0.3 2.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 

 LPG 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.2 

 Natural Gas -0.5 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.1 

Commercial 

 Electricity -0.9 -0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.0 

 Distillate Oil 1.1 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 

 Residual Oil -1.5 2.6 2.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 

 Natural Gas -1.3 1.5 1.7 1.0 1.4 1.3 

 Coal -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 

Industrial 

 Electricity -0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 

 Distillate Oil 0.4 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 

 Residual Oil 3.0 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 

 Natural Gas 0.7 1.8 2.7 1.2 1.9 2.0 

 Coal -0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 2.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
44

D. Projected Average Carbon Prices and Emissions Indices 

Most financed federal projects, such as Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPC), base 

contract payments on projected annual energy cost savings. When setting up the contract, 

average rates of energy price escalation over the contract term are a matter of negotiation. One 

consideration in setting escalation rates is the potential for future carbon pricing. Should carbon 

pricing legislation be enacted by the U.S. Congress, use of the EIA-based escalation rates—

which do not consider carbon pricing—likely would underestimate escalation for contract 

payments. In 2010, to assist federal agencies in considering a range of escalation rate scenarios, 

FEMP introduced to the annual supplement a new “D” series of tables projecting potential future 

carbon prices and electricity-related carbon emissions rates under a range of carbon policy 

scenarios. Also in 2010, with the release of the Energy Escalation Rate Calculator (EERC 2.0), a 

BLCC companion program for financed projects, average rates of escalation may be calculated 

for each of these carbon policy scenarios. These may be considered by federal agencies for use 

as energy price escalation rates for contract payments. 

Carbon Price Projections. In January 2010, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 

issued a supplemental analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (H.R. 

2454).3

 The analysis was based on multiple peer-reviewed climate economic models, with a 

particular focus on an economy-wide model known as ADAGE (Applied Dynamic Analysis of 

Global Economy). 

Three carbon policy scenarios are chosen from the EPA study to create three levels of carbon 

pricing: Default, Low, and High. Default Pricing stems from a scenario assuming H.R. 2454 is 

enacted as is with no changes in the policy design, which does not restrict the type of capacity 

that electric utilities may install to meet carbon emissions targets. The Default scenario assumes 

that all countries, including developing countries, will begin to restrict carbon emissions over the 

next 40 years. Low Pricing assumes that developing countries do not take any action over the 

next 40 years to restrict carbon emissions, which decreases the demand for carbon reductions and 

allows emitters in the United States to purchase carbon offsets from other countries at a lower 

cost. High Pricing assumes that carbon offsets are not allowed and nuclear and biomass capacity 

construction is restricted. Both assumptions limit some of the least expensive options available to 

decrease carbon emissions, causing carbon prices to increase. 

Table D-1 presents projected U.S. carbon prices under the Low, Default, and High Pricing policy 

scenarios. 

Carbon Emissions Projections. Electric utilities will adjust to carbon markets by changing their 

generation mixes. These adjustments—and resulting carbon emissions levels—will vary over 

time depending on the policy scenario, with higher carbon prices encouraging more rapid 

transformations to less carbon-intensive electricity generation. The supplemental EPA analysis 

reports ADAGE-projected emissions with no carbon policy (business as usual) and under the 

 

3

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Supplemental EPA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security 

Act of 2009: H.R. 2454 in the 111th Congress, Office of Atmospheric Programs, January 29, 2010, 

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/economics/economicanalyses.html . 
45

Low, Default, and High carbon pricing scenarios.4

 These emissions projections are used to 

develop carbon emissions rate indices for this report. 

Table D-2 presents projected U.S. carbon emissions rate indices for electricity with no carbon 

policy and under each carbon policy scenario. These indices, when multiplied by annual 

electricity emissions as of the base date, provide estimates of future-year emissions. 

Examples of How to Use the Carbon Prices and Electricity Emissions Indices: 

For all fuel types except electricity: To compute the cost of carbon in 2040 assuming the default 

carbon pricing scenario, go to Table D-1, find the 2040 default carbon price ($0.07/kg), and 

multiply the price by total annual carbon dioxide emissions (in kg) as of the base date for all fuel 

types except electricity (project-specific emissions, by fuel type, are reported by the BLCC 

program). The result is expressed in constant 2011 dollars. 

For electricity: To compute the cost of carbon in 2020 assuming high carbon pricing, make two 

calculations: 

(1) Go to Table D-1, find the 2020 High Pricing value ($0.09/kg), and multiply the price 

by annual carbon dioxide emissions for electricity (in kilograms) as of the base date. 

(2) Go to Table D-2, find the 2020 carbon dioxide emissions rate index for high carbon 

pricing (0.71), and multiply the index by the result in (1). 

The result is the projected carbon cost for 2020 electricity consumption expressed in constant 

2011 dollars. 

 

4

 Emissions rates in the business-as-usual case change based on expected electricity capacity deployment and 

generator retirement given the current market and policy environment. 
46

Table D-1. Projected Carbon Dioxide-Equivalent Emissions Prices, by Carbon Policy 

Scenario 

(2011 dollars per kilogram carbon dioxide) 

 Carbon Policy Scenario 

Year 

Default 

Pricing

Low 

Pricing

High 

Pricing

2011 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

2012 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

2013 $0.02 $0.01 $0.06

2014 $0.02 $0.01 $0.07

2015 $0.02 $0.01 $0.07

2016 $0.02 $0.02 $0.07

2017 $0.02 $0.02 $0.08

2018 $0.02 $0.02 $0.08

2019 $0.03 $0.02 $0.09

2020 $0.03 $0.02 $0.09

2021 $0.03 $0.02 $0.09

2022 $0.03 $0.02 $0.10

2023 $0.03 $0.02 $0.10

2024 $0.03 $0.02 $0.11

2025 $0.03 $0.02 $0.11

2026 $0.04 $0.03 $0.12

2027 $0.04 $0.03 $0.13

2028 $0.04 $0.03 $0.13

2029 $0.04 $0.03 $0.14

2030 $0.04 $0.03 $0.14

2031 $0.05 $0.03 $0.15

2032 $0.05 $0.03 $0.16

2033 $0.05 $0.04 $0.17

2034 $0.05 $0.04 $0.18

2035 $0.06 $0.04 $0.18

2036 $0.06 $0.04 $0.19

2037 $0.06 $0.04 $0.20

2038 $0.07 $0.05 $0.21

2039 $0.07 $0.05 $0.22

2040 $0.07 $0.05 $0.23

2041 $0.08 $0.05 $0.25
47

Table D-2. Projected Carbon Dioxide Emissions Rate Indices for Electricity, by Carbon 

Policy Scenario 

 

Carbon Policy Scenario 

Year 

No 

Policy

Default 

Pricing

Low 

Pricing

High 

Pricing 

2011 1.00 0.97 0.97 0.97 

2012 0.99 0.95 0.95 0.94 

2013 0.99 0.93 0.93 0.91 

2014 0.98 0.91 0.91 0.89 

2015 0.98 0.89 0.89 0.86 

2016 0.97 0.87 0.87 0.83 

2017 0.97 0.84 0.84 0.80 

2018 0.96 0.81 0.81 0.77 

2019 0.95 0.79 0.79 0.74 

2020 0.95 0.76 0.76 0.71 

2021 0.94 0.74 0.74 0.69 

2022 0.94 0.72 0.72 0.67 

2023 0.94 0.70 0.70 0.64 

2024 0.93 0.68 0.68 0.62 

2025 0.93 0.66 0.66 0.60 

2026 0.93 0.64 0.63 0.58 

2027 0.93 0.61 0.61 0.56 

2028 0.94 0.59 0.59 0.55 

2029 0.94 0.57 0.56 0.53 

2030 0.94 0.54 0.54 0.51 

2031 0.94 0.53 0.52 0.49 

2032 0.94 0.51 0.50 0.47 

2033 0.94 0.49 0.48 0.45 

2034 0.94 0.47 0.47 0.43 

2035 0.94 0.46 0.45 0.41 

2036 0.94 0.44 0.43 0.38 

2037 0.94 0.42 0.41 0.36 

2038 0.94 0.40 0.39 0.33 

2039 0.94 0.38 0.37 0.31 

2040 0.94 0.36 0.35 0.29 

2041 0.94 0.34 0.33 0.25 
48

PART II: 

ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS 

This section presents tables of projected nominal (i.e., including inflation) fuel price indices for 

four fuels in the residential sector and five fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years 

from 2011 through 2041. These price indices are based on the DOE energy price projections, 

reported in Part I, Section B of this document, used to calculate the FEMP and OMB UPV* 

factors for energy costs. Tables S-1 to S-5 are provided as an update to similar tables originally 

published in Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy Decisions (NBS SP 709). 

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates 

of general price inflation: 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %. Selection of these rates is in no way intended 

to suggest what actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates in current 

dollars, inclusive of general price inflation. Current-dollar prices are needed when discounting is 

performed with discount rates that include general price inflation (i.e., nominal or market

discount rates). 

The calculated indices with inflation rates of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 % allow the analyst to 

perform evaluations based on the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that 

changes the purchasing power of the dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is 

sometimes preferred for private investment decisions, primarily because it facilitates the 

treatment of taxes. 

The indices in Tables S-1 through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 

through Ca-5 by means of the following equation: 

( ) 1 , N IS = IC × + g

where IS = index found in Tables S-1 through S-5; 

 IC = index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5; 

 g = annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and 

 N = number of years, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 2011. 

Example of How to Use the Indices: 

Suppose you wish to estimate the annual cost of natural gas for a house in Maryland in year 

2016, given the annual cost in 2011 (April 1) prices, and you expect an annual inflation rate of 

3 % per year. From table S-3, find the column with residential natural gas indices at an inflation 

rate of 3 %; then locate the index for the year 2016. This index is 1.16. Multiply the annual cost 

in 2011 prices by the index to find the estimated annual cost in year 2016 prices. 

If this annual cost in year-2016 prices is to be discounted to present value, you must use a 

nominal discount rate that includes the same assumption with regard to general price inflation 

(3 % in this example). To obtain a present-value cost over the entire study period, the presentvalue calculation must be repeated for each year that there are natural gas costs, and the results 

summed. (UPV* factors are not given for private sector use because of the large number of 
49

tables required to cover potential discount rates that might be used by the analyst.) The BLCC 

computer program can perform LCC analyses using any discount rate, in constant or in current 

(market) dollars. The private sector analyst may use the UPV* factors reported in Part I, 

provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars and the desired discount rate corresponds 

to the DOE or OMB discount rates used in Part I. 

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B, 

Part I. 

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. 

Figure B-1 on page 13 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census 

regions. The Census regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, 

Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these 

areas should use data which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the 

tables with U.S. average data for guidance. 
Table S-1. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates 

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 

 Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) --------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL------------------------------------------ Electricity Distillate Oil LPG Natural  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ --------------- Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation RYear 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 2012 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 0.99 1.00 1.2013 1.07 1.10 1.12 1.14 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.10 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.00 1.02 1.2014 1.10 1.13 1.16 1.20 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.18 1.21 1.25 1.01 1.04 1.2015 1.11 1.16 1.20 1.25 1.07 1.11 1.16 1.20 1.18 1.22 1.27 1.32 1.03 1.07 1.2016 1.12 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.13 1.19 1.25 1.31 1.22 1.28 1.34 1.41 1.05 1.11 1.2017 1.13 1.20 1.27 1.35 1.19 1.27 1.34 1.42 1.26 1.34 1.42 1.50 1.08 1.15 1.2018 1.14 1.22 1.31 1.40 1.25 1.34 1.44 1.53 1.30 1.40 1.49 1.60 1.12 1.20 1.2019 1.16 1.25 1.35 1.46 1.31 1.42 1.53 1.65 1.35 1.46 1.58 1.70 1.16 1.25 1.2020 1.18 1.28 1.40 1.53 1.36 1.48 1.62 1.76 1.39 1.52 1.66 1.81 1.20 1.31 1.2021 1.19 1.31 1.45 1.59 1.40 1.55 1.70 1.88 1.44 1.58 1.75 1.92 1.24 1.37 1.2022 1.21 1.34 1.49 1.66 1.46 1.62 1.80 2.00 1.48 1.65 1.83 2.04 1.28 1.43 1.2023 1.22 1.37 1.54 1.73 1.50 1.69 1.89 2.12 1.52 1.71 1.92 2.16 1.33 1.49 1.2024 1.23 1.40 1.59 1.80 1.56 1.77 2.00 2.27 1.57 1.78 2.02 2.28 1.37 1.56 1.2025 1.25 1.43 1.64 1.88 1.60 1.84 2.11 2.41 1.61 1.85 2.11 2.42 1.42 1.62 1.2026 1.27 1.47 1.69 1.96 1.65 1.91 2.21 2.55 1.65 1.92 2.21 2.56 1.46 1.69 1.2027 1.28 1.50 1.75 2.04 1.70 1.99 2.32 2.71 1.70 1.99 2.32 2.70 1.51 1.77 2.2028 1.30 1.53 1.81 2.13 1.75 2.07 2.44 2.87 1.74 2.05 2.42 2.85 1.56 1.84 2.2029 1.32 1.57 1.87 2.22 1.81 2.15 2.56 3.04 1.78 2.13 2.53 3.01 1.61 1.92 2.2030 1.34 1.61 1.93 2.32 1.84 2.22 2.66 3.20 1.83 2.20 2.64 3.17 1.66 2.00 2.2031 1.36 1.66 2.01 2.43 1.88 2.29 2.78 3.36 1.87 2.27 2.75 3.33 1.71 2.08 2.2032 1.39 1.71 2.09 2.56 1.93 2.37 2.90 3.54 1.90 2.34 2.86 3.50 1.76 2.16 2.2033 1.42 1.76 2.18 2.69 1.97 2.44 3.02 3.73 1.94 2.41 2.98 3.68 1.81 2.25 2.2034 1.46 1.83 2.28 2.84 2.02 2.53 3.16 3.94 1.98 2.48 3.10 3.86 1.87 2.34 2.2035 1.49 1.89 2.38 3.00 2.07 2.62 3.31 4.16 2.02 2.56 3.22 4.06 1.92 2.43 3.2036 1.52 1.94 2.47 3.14 2.12 2.71 3.45 4.38 2.07 2.64 3.36 4.26 1.98 2.53 3.2037 1.55 1.99 2.56 3.28 2.17 2.79 3.59 4.61 2.11 2.72 3.50 4.48 2.04 2.63 3.2038 1.57 2.04 2.65 3.44 2.22 2.89 3.75 4.85 2.16 2.81 3.64 4.72 2.10 2.73 3.2039 1.60 2.10 2.75 3.59 2.27 2.98 3.90 5.10 2.20 2.89 3.79 4.96 2.16 2.84 3.2040 1.62 2.15 2.85 3.76 2.32 3.07 4.07 5.37 2.25 2.99 3.95 5.22 2.23 2.96 3.2041 1.65 2.21 2.95 3.93 2.37 3.18 4.24 5.65 2.30 3.08 4.12 5.49 2.30 3.08 4.

50
Table S-1, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation ra

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL------------------------------------------ Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ - Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2012 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.87 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 2013 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 0.83 0.85 0.87 0.88 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 2014 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.10 1.13 1.16 1.20 0.90 0.92 0.95 0.98 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.06 2015 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.14 1.19 1.23 1.28 0.95 0.98 1.02 1.06 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.09 2016 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.21 1.27 1.33 1.40 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 2017 1.02 1.08 1.14 1.21 1.28 1.36 1.44 1.52 1.05 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.02 1.09 1.15 1.22 2018 1.04 1.11 1.19 1.27 1.34 1.44 1.54 1.65 1.11 1.19 1.27 1.36 1.05 1.13 1.21 1.29 2019 1.07 1.15 1.25 1.35 1.41 1.52 1.65 1.78 1.15 1.24 1.34 1.45 1.09 1.18 1.27 1.37 2020 1.10 1.20 1.31 1.43 1.46 1.60 1.74 1.90 1.20 1.31 1.43 1.56 1.13 1.23 1.34 1.46 2021 1.14 1.25 1.38 1.52 1.51 1.67 1.84 2.02 1.26 1.38 1.52 1.68 1.16 1.28 1.41 1.55 2022 1.16 1.30 1.44 1.60 1.57 1.75 1.95 2.16 1.32 1.47 1.63 1.81 1.20 1.34 1.49 1.65 2023 1.19 1.34 1.50 1.69 1.62 1.82 2.05 2.30 1.40 1.57 1.77 1.98 1.24 1.39 1.57 1.76 2024 1.22 1.38 1.57 1.77 1.68 1.91 2.17 2.46 1.46 1.65 1.87 2.12 1.28 1.45 1.65 1.87 2025 1.25 1.43 1.63 1.87 1.74 1.99 2.28 2.61 1.50 1.72 1.97 2.25 1.32 1.52 1.74 1.99 2026 1.27 1.47 1.69 1.96 1.79 2.07 2.39 2.76 1.55 1.79 2.07 2.39 1.36 1.58 1.82 2.10 2027 1.29 1.51 1.76 2.05 1.85 2.16 2.52 2.93 1.59 1.86 2.17 2.53 1.40 1.64 1.92 2.23 2028 1.31 1.55 1.82 2.15 1.90 2.24 2.64 3.11 1.64 1.93 2.28 2.68 1.45 1.71 2.01 2.37 2029 1.33 1.59 1.89 2.25 1.96 2.34 2.78 3.30 1.68 2.01 2.39 2.84 1.49 1.78 2.11 2.51 2030 1.36 1.64 1.97 2.36 2.00 2.40 2.89 3.46 1.72 2.07 2.49 2.99 1.53 1.85 2.22 2.66 2031 1.39 1.69 2.05 2.48 2.04 2.48 3.01 3.64 1.77 2.15 2.61 3.16 1.58 1.92 2.33 2.82 2032 1.42 1.74 2.13 2.61 2.09 2.56 3.14 3.84 1.81 2.22 2.71 3.32 1.62 1.99 2.44 2.98 2033 1.45 1.80 2.23 2.75 2.13 2.64 3.27 4.04 1.85 2.30 2.84 3.50 1.67 2.07 2.56 3.16 2034 1.49 1.87 2.33 2.90 2.19 2.74 3.42 4.27 1.90 2.38 2.97 3.70 1.71 2.14 2.68 3.33 2035 1.53 1.93 2.44 3.07 2.25 2.84 3.58 4.51 1.96 2.47 3.12 3.92 1.76 2.22 2.80 3.53 2036 1.56 1.99 2.53 3.22 2.30 2.93 3.74 4.75 2.00 2.56 3.25 4.13 1.82 2.32 2.95 3.75 2037 1.58 2.04 2.62 3.36 2.35 3.03 3.89 4.99 2.05 2.64 3.40 4.36 1.88 2.42 3.11 3.99 2038 1.61 2.09 2.72 3.52 2.40 3.13 4.06 5.26 2.10 2.73 3.55 4.59 1.94 2.53 3.28 4.24 2039 1.63 2.15 2.81 3.68 2.46 3.23 4.23 5.53 2.15 2.82 3.70 4.84 2.01 2.64 3.46 4.52 2040 1.66 2.20 2.91 3.84 2.51 3.33 4.41 5.82 2.20 2.92 3.86 5.10 2.07 2.75 3.64 4.81 2041 1.68 2.26 3.02 4.02 2.57 3.44 4.60 6.13 2.25 3.02 4.03 5.37 2.15 2.88 3.84 5.12 

51
Table S-1, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation ra

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL-----------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

 Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 

2012 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 2013 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 2014 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.13 1.17 1.20 1.10 1.13 1.16 1.20 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.13 2015 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.15 1.19 1.24 1.29 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.06 1.10 1.14 1.19 2016 1.03 1.08 1.13 1.19 1.21 1.27 1.33 1.40 1.21 1.27 1.34 1.40 1.08 1.13 1.19 1.25 2017 1.06 1.12 1.19 1.26 1.28 1.36 1.44 1.52 1.28 1.35 1.43 1.52 1.11 1.17 1.24 1.32 2018 1.09 1.17 1.25 1.34 1.35 1.44 1.54 1.65 1.34 1.43 1.53 1.64 1.14 1.22 1.31 1.40 2019 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.43 1.41 1.52 1.65 1.78 1.38 1.49 1.61 1.74 1.18 1.28 1.38 1.49 2020 1.19 1.30 1.42 1.55 1.46 1.60 1.74 1.90 1.44 1.57 1.71 1.86 1.22 1.33 1.46 1.59 2021 1.24 1.37 1.51 1.66 1.51 1.67 1.83 2.02 1.50 1.65 1.82 2.00 1.27 1.40 1.54 1.69 2022 1.28 1.43 1.59 1.77 1.57 1.75 1.95 2.16 1.57 1.74 1.94 2.15 1.31 1.46 1.62 1.80 2023 1.33 1.49 1.68 1.88 1.62 1.82 2.05 2.29 1.65 1.86 2.09 2.34 1.36 1.53 1.71 1.92 2024 1.37 1.55 1.76 2.00 1.68 1.91 2.17 2.45 1.72 1.95 2.21 2.50 1.41 1.60 1.81 2.05 2025 1.41 1.62 1.85 2.12 1.74 1.99 2.28 2.60 1.77 2.02 2.32 2.65 1.46 1.67 1.91 2.19 2026 1.45 1.67 1.94 2.23 1.78 2.07 2.39 2.76 1.82 2.10 2.43 2.81 1.50 1.74 2.01 2.32 2027 1.48 1.73 2.02 2.36 1.84 2.15 2.51 2.93 1.87 2.18 2.55 2.97 1.55 1.82 2.12 2.47 2028 1.52 1.79 2.11 2.49 1.90 2.24 2.64 3.10 1.92 2.27 2.67 3.14 1.61 1.90 2.23 2.63 2029 1.56 1.86 2.21 2.62 1.96 2.33 2.77 3.30 1.97 2.35 2.80 3.32 1.65 1.97 2.35 2.79 2030 1.60 1.93 2.32 2.78 1.99 2.40 2.88 3.45 2.02 2.43 2.92 3.50 1.71 2.06 2.47 2.96 2031 1.64 2.00 2.42 2.93 2.03 2.47 3.00 3.63 2.07 2.51 3.05 3.69 1.76 2.14 2.60 3.15 2032 1.69 2.07 2.54 3.10 2.08 2.56 3.13 3.83 2.11 2.59 3.17 3.88 1.81 2.22 2.72 3.33 2033 1.73 2.15 2.66 3.28 2.13 2.64 3.26 4.03 2.16 2.68 3.32 4.10 1.87 2.31 2.86 3.53 2034 1.78 2.23 2.79 3.48 2.19 2.73 3.42 4.26 2.22 2.78 3.47 4.33 1.92 2.40 3.00 3.74 2035 1.84 2.32 2.93 3.68 2.24 2.83 3.57 4.49 2.28 2.88 3.63 4.57 1.97 2.49 3.14 3.95 2036 1.88 2.40 3.05 3.88 2.29 2.93 3.73 4.73 2.34 2.98 3.79 4.82 2.04 2.61 3.32 4.21 2037 1.92 2.47 3.18 4.08 2.34 3.02 3.88 4.98 2.39 3.08 3.96 5.08 2.12 2.73 3.51 4.51 2038 1.96 2.55 3.31 4.28 2.40 3.12 4.05 5.24 2.45 3.18 4.13 5.35 2.21 2.87 3.73 4.82 2039 2.00 2.63 3.44 4.50 2.45 3.22 4.22 5.52 2.50 3.29 4.31 5.63 2.29 3.01 3.95 5.16 2040 2.04 2.71 3.58 4.73 2.50 3.32 4.40 5.81 2.56 3.40 4.50 5.93 2.38 3.16 4.19 5.53 2041 2.08 2.79 3.73 4.97 2.56 3.43 4.59 6.11 2.62 3.51 4.69 6.25 2.48 3.32 4.43 5.91 

52
Table S-2. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates 

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

--------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL-----------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil LPG 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ --------

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate I

 Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 

2012 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 0.98 2013 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 1.17 1.19 1.21 1.24 0.99 2014 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.13 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.21 1.25 1.29 1.32 1.00 2015 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.26 1.31 1.36 1.41 1.03 2016 1.08 1.13 1.19 1.25 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.21 1.30 1.37 1.43 1.50 1.07 2017 1.09 1.16 1.23 1.30 1.10 1.17 1.24 1.31 1.35 1.43 1.52 1.61 1.10 2018 1.10 1.18 1.27 1.35 1.16 1.24 1.33 1.42 1.41 1.51 1.61 1.72 1.14 2019 1.12 1.21 1.30 1.41 1.22 1.31 1.42 1.53 1.46 1.58 1.71 1.84 1.18 2020 1.13 1.24 1.35 1.47 1.26 1.38 1.50 1.64 1.51 1.65 1.80 1.96 1.23 2021 1.15 1.26 1.39 1.53 1.30 1.43 1.58 1.74 1.57 1.73 1.90 2.09 1.29 2022 1.16 1.29 1.44 1.60 1.34 1.49 1.66 1.84 1.62 1.80 2.00 2.22 1.33 2023 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.67 1.38 1.56 1.75 1.96 1.67 1.88 2.11 2.36 1.38 2024 1.20 1.36 1.55 1.75 1.43 1.63 1.85 2.09 1.72 1.95 2.21 2.51 1.44 2025 1.22 1.40 1.60 1.83 1.48 1.70 1.94 2.22 1.77 2.03 2.32 2.66 1.49 2026 1.25 1.44 1.67 1.93 1.53 1.77 2.04 2.36 1.82 2.11 2.44 2.81 1.55 2027 1.27 1.48 1.73 2.02 1.57 1.84 2.15 2.50 1.87 2.19 2.55 2.98 1.60 2028 1.29 1.53 1.80 2.12 1.62 1.91 2.26 2.65 1.92 2.27 2.67 3.15 1.65 2029 1.33 1.58 1.88 2.24 1.67 1.99 2.37 2.81 1.97 2.35 2.80 3.32 1.70 2030 1.36 1.63 1.96 2.35 1.71 2.06 2.48 2.97 2.02 2.43 2.92 3.50 1.75 2031 1.38 1.68 2.04 2.47 1.76 2.13 2.59 3.14 2.07 2.51 3.05 3.69 1.80 2032 1.41 1.74 2.13 2.60 1.80 2.21 2.70 3.30 2.11 2.59 3.17 3.88 1.85 2033 1.45 1.79 2.22 2.74 1.84 2.28 2.82 3.48 2.15 2.67 3.30 4.08 1.92 2034 1.48 1.85 2.31 2.88 1.89 2.36 2.95 3.67 2.20 2.75 3.44 4.28 1.99 2035 1.51 1.91 2.41 3.03 1.94 2.45 3.08 3.88 2.24 2.83 3.57 4.50 2.07 2036 1.54 1.97 2.51 3.19 1.98 2.53 3.22 4.09 2.29 2.92 3.72 4.73 2.14 2037 1.57 2.03 2.61 3.34 2.02 2.61 3.35 4.30 2.34 3.02 3.88 4.97 2.21 2038 1.61 2.09 2.71 3.51 2.07 2.69 3.50 4.53 2.39 3.11 4.04 5.23 2.28 2039 1.64 2.15 2.82 3.69 2.12 2.78 3.65 4.77 2.45 3.21 4.21 5.51 2.36 2040 1.67 2.22 2.93 3.87 2.16 2.87 3.80 5.02 2.50 3.32 4.39 5.79 2.43 2041 1.70 2.28 3.05 4.06 2.21 2.97 3.96 5.28 2.55 3.42 4.57 6.10 2.51 

53
Table S-2, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation r

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL---------------------------------------- Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------  Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2012 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 2013 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.18 1.21 1.23 1.26 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.04 2014 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.10 1.25 1.28 1.32 1.36 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.07 2015 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.18 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.18 1.30 1.35 1.41 1.46 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 2016 1.07 1.12 1.18 1.23 1.11 1.17 1.22 1.28 1.36 1.42 1.50 1.57 1.03 1.08 1.13 1.19 2017 1.08 1.15 1.22 1.29 1.18 1.25 1.32 1.40 1.41 1.50 1.59 1.68 1.06 1.12 1.19 1.26 2018 1.10 1.17 1.25 1.34 1.24 1.33 1.42 1.52 1.47 1.58 1.69 1.80 1.09 1.17 1.25 1.34 2019 1.11 1.20 1.29 1.40 1.30 1.40 1.52 1.64 1.54 1.67 1.80 1.94 1.13 1.23 1.32 1.43 2020 1.12 1.22 1.34 1.46 1.35 1.47 1.61 1.75 1.60 1.75 1.90 2.08 1.19 1.30 1.42 1.54 2021 1.14 1.25 1.38 1.52 1.39 1.54 1.69 1.86 1.66 1.83 2.01 2.21 1.24 1.37 1.51 1.66 2022 1.15 1.28 1.43 1.59 1.45 1.61 1.79 1.99 1.71 1.91 2.12 2.36 1.29 1.44 1.60 1.77 2023 1.17 1.32 1.48 1.66 1.49 1.68 1.88 2.11 1.77 1.99 2.24 2.51 1.34 1.50 1.69 1.89 2024 1.19 1.35 1.54 1.74 1.55 1.76 1.99 2.26 1.83 2.08 2.36 2.67 1.39 1.58 1.79 2.03 2025 1.22 1.39 1.59 1.82 1.60 1.83 2.10 2.40 1.89 2.17 2.48 2.83 1.45 1.66 1.90 2.17 2026 1.24 1.43 1.66 1.91 1.65 1.91 2.20 2.54 1.95 2.25 2.61 3.01 1.50 1.74 2.01 2.32 2027 1.26 1.47 1.72 2.01 1.70 1.99 2.32 2.70 2.00 2.34 2.74 3.19 1.55 1.81 2.12 2.47 2028 1.29 1.52 1.79 2.11 1.75 2.07 2.44 2.87 2.06 2.43 2.86 3.37 1.60 1.89 2.23 2.62 2029 1.32 1.58 1.87 2.23 1.81 2.15 2.56 3.04 2.10 2.50 2.98 3.54 1.65 1.96 2.33 2.77 2030 1.35 1.63 1.95 2.34 1.85 2.22 2.67 3.20 2.12 2.55 3.07 3.68 1.69 2.03 2.44 2.93 2031 1.38 1.68 2.04 2.47 1.89 2.29 2.78 3.37 2.15 2.62 3.18 3.85 1.74 2.11 2.56 3.10 2032 1.41 1.73 2.12 2.60 1.93 2.37 2.90 3.55 2.19 2.69 3.29 4.02 1.79 2.20 2.69 3.29 2033 1.45 1.79 2.22 2.74 1.97 2.45 3.03 3.74 2.23 2.76 3.42 4.22 1.85 2.30 2.84 3.51 2034 1.48 1.85 2.31 2.88 2.03 2.54 3.17 3.95 2.28 2.86 3.57 4.45 1.92 2.41 3.01 3.75 2035 1.52 1.92 2.42 3.04 2.08 2.63 3.31 4.17 2.34 2.96 3.73 4.69 2.00 2.53 3.19 4.02 2036 1.55 1.98 2.52 3.20 2.13 2.72 3.46 4.39 2.39 3.05 3.89 4.94 2.08 2.65 3.37 4.28 2037 1.58 2.04 2.62 3.36 2.18 2.80 3.60 4.62 2.45 3.16 4.06 5.20 2.14 2.76 3.55 4.56 2038 1.62 2.10 2.73 3.53 2.23 2.90 3.76 4.87 2.50 3.26 4.23 5.48 2.22 2.89 3.75 4.85 2039 1.65 2.17 2.84 3.71 2.28 2.99 3.92 5.12 2.56 3.37 4.42 5.77 2.29 3.01 3.95 5.17 2040 1.68 2.23 2.96 3.90 2.33 3.09 4.09 5.39 2.62 3.48 4.61 6.08 2.37 3.15 4.17 5.50 2041 1.72 2.30 3.08 4.10 2.38 3.19 4.26 5.68 2.68 3.60 4.80 6.40 2.45 3.29 4.39 5.86 

54
Table S-2, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation r

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, 

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL---------------------------------------- Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------  Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2012 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 2013 1.03 1.05 1.08 1.10 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 2014 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.19 1.23 1.26 1.30 1.06 1.09 1.13 1.16 2015 1.07 1.11 1.15 1.20 1.05 1.09 1.14 1.18 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.10 1.14 1.18 1.23 2016 1.09 1.14 1.20 1.26 1.11 1.17 1.22 1.28 1.31 1.37 1.44 1.51 1.14 1.19 1.25 1.31 2017 1.11 1.17 1.24 1.32 1.18 1.25 1.32 1.40 1.36 1.45 1.53 1.62 1.17 1.24 1.32 1.39 2018 1.12 1.20 1.29 1.37 1.24 1.32 1.42 1.52 1.42 1.52 1.63 1.74 1.21 1.30 1.39 1.49 2019 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.43 1.30 1.40 1.51 1.63 1.49 1.61 1.74 1.88 1.26 1.36 1.47 1.59 2020 1.16 1.26 1.38 1.50 1.35 1.47 1.60 1.75 1.55 1.69 1.85 2.01 1.33 1.45 1.59 1.73 2021 1.17 1.29 1.43 1.57 1.39 1.53 1.69 1.86 1.61 1.77 1.95 2.15 1.40 1.55 1.70 1.88 2022 1.19 1.33 1.48 1.64 1.45 1.61 1.79 1.99 1.67 1.85 2.06 2.29 1.46 1.63 1.81 2.01 2023 1.22 1.37 1.54 1.73 1.49 1.68 1.89 2.11 1.73 1.94 2.18 2.44 1.53 1.72 1.93 2.16 2024 1.24 1.41 1.60 1.81 1.55 1.76 2.00 2.26 1.78 2.02 2.30 2.60 1.60 1.81 2.05 2.33 2025 1.27 1.45 1.66 1.90 1.60 1.84 2.10 2.40 1.84 2.11 2.42 2.76 1.67 1.91 2.19 2.50 2026 1.29 1.50 1.73 2.00 1.65 1.91 2.20 2.54 1.90 2.20 2.54 2.94 1.73 2.00 2.32 2.67 2027 1.32 1.54 1.80 2.10 1.70 1.99 2.32 2.71 1.96 2.29 2.67 3.11 1.80 2.11 2.46 2.87 2028 1.35 1.59 1.88 2.21 1.75 2.07 2.44 2.87 2.01 2.37 2.80 3.29 1.87 2.21 2.60 3.06 2029 1.39 1.65 1.97 2.34 1.81 2.15 2.56 3.04 2.05 2.44 2.91 3.46 1.92 2.29 2.72 3.24 2030 1.42 1.71 2.05 2.46 1.84 2.21 2.66 3.19 2.07 2.49 3.00 3.59 1.97 2.37 2.85 3.42 2031 1.45 1.77 2.14 2.59 1.88 2.28 2.77 3.35 2.10 2.56 3.10 3.76 2.03 2.46 2.99 3.62 2032 1.49 1.83 2.24 2.74 1.92 2.36 2.89 3.53 2.14 2.62 3.21 3.93 2.09 2.57 3.15 3.85 2033 1.53 1.89 2.34 2.89 1.96 2.43 3.01 3.71 2.18 2.70 3.34 4.12 2.18 2.70 3.34 4.12 2034 1.57 1.96 2.45 3.05 2.01 2.52 3.15 3.92 2.23 2.79 3.49 4.35 2.27 2.84 3.54 4.42 2035 1.61 2.03 2.56 3.23 2.07 2.61 3.29 4.14 2.29 2.89 3.64 4.59 2.37 3.00 3.78 4.76 2036 1.65 2.10 2.68 3.40 2.11 2.70 3.44 4.36 2.34 2.99 3.80 4.83 2.47 3.15 4.01 5.10 2037 1.69 2.17 2.79 3.58 2.16 2.79 3.58 4.59 2.39 3.09 3.97 5.09 2.57 3.31 4.26 5.46 2038 1.72 2.24 2.91 3.77 2.21 2.88 3.73 4.83 2.45 3.19 4.14 5.36 2.67 3.48 4.51 5.84 2039 1.76 2.32 3.04 3.97 2.26 2.97 3.89 5.09 2.51 3.30 4.32 5.65 2.78 3.65 4.78 6.25 2040 1.80 2.39 3.16 4.18 2.31 3.07 4.06 5.36 2.57 3.40 4.51 5.95 2.89 3.83 5.07 6.70 2041 1.84 2.47 3.30 4.40 2.36 3.17 4.23 5.64 2.63 3.52 4.70 6.27 3.01 4.03 5.38 7.17 

55
Table S-3. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates 

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisia Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Vi Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) --------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL------------------------------------------ Electricity Distillate Oil LPG Natural G ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ --------------- Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation RYear 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 2012 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.01 1.02 1.2013 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.19 1.03 1.05 1.2014 1.04 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.16 1.19 1.23 1.26 1.04 1.07 1.2015 1.07 1.11 1.15 1.20 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.18 1.20 1.24 1.29 1.34 1.07 1.12 1.2016 1.09 1.14 1.20 1.26 1.11 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.23 1.30 1.36 1.43 1.10 1.16 1.2017 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.33 1.17 1.24 1.31 1.39 1.28 1.36 1.44 1.52 1.13 1.20 1.2018 1.14 1.22 1.31 1.40 1.23 1.31 1.41 1.50 1.33 1.42 1.52 1.62 1.16 1.24 1.2019 1.17 1.26 1.36 1.47 1.29 1.39 1.50 1.62 1.37 1.48 1.60 1.73 1.19 1.29 1.2020 1.19 1.30 1.42 1.55 1.33 1.46 1.59 1.73 1.42 1.55 1.69 1.84 1.24 1.35 1.2021 1.22 1.35 1.48 1.63 1.38 1.52 1.67 1.84 1.46 1.61 1.78 1.96 1.28 1.42 1.2022 1.25 1.39 1.54 1.71 1.42 1.58 1.76 1.95 1.51 1.68 1.87 2.08 1.33 1.48 1.2023 1.27 1.43 1.60 1.80 1.46 1.65 1.85 2.07 1.55 1.75 1.96 2.20 1.38 1.56 1.2024 1.30 1.47 1.67 1.89 1.52 1.72 1.95 2.21 1.60 1.82 2.06 2.33 1.44 1.63 1.2025 1.33 1.52 1.74 1.99 1.57 1.80 2.06 2.35 1.64 1.89 2.16 2.47 1.50 1.72 1.2026 1.36 1.58 1.82 2.10 1.62 1.87 2.16 2.50 1.69 1.96 2.26 2.61 1.55 1.79 2.2027 1.39 1.63 1.90 2.22 1.66 1.94 2.27 2.65 1.73 2.03 2.37 2.76 1.60 1.87 2.2028 1.43 1.69 1.99 2.34 1.71 2.02 2.38 2.80 1.78 2.10 2.47 2.91 1.65 1.95 2.2029 1.46 1.74 2.07 2.46 1.76 2.10 2.50 2.97 1.82 2.17 2.59 3.07 1.69 2.01 2.2030 1.49 1.79 2.15 2.58 1.81 2.18 2.62 3.14 1.87 2.25 2.70 3.24 1.73 2.09 2.2031 1.52 1.85 2.24 2.72 1.85 2.25 2.73 3.31 1.91 2.32 2.81 3.41 1.79 2.17 2.2032 1.56 1.91 2.34 2.86 1.90 2.33 2.86 3.49 1.95 2.39 2.93 3.58 1.85 2.27 2.2033 1.59 1.97 2.44 3.01 1.94 2.41 2.98 3.67 1.99 2.46 3.05 3.76 1.91 2.36 2.2034 1.63 2.04 2.55 3.18 1.99 2.49 3.11 3.88 2.03 2.54 3.17 3.95 1.97 2.47 3.2035 1.67 2.11 2.66 3.35 2.04 2.58 3.26 4.10 2.07 2.61 3.30 4.15 2.04 2.58 3.2036 1.71 2.18 2.78 3.53 2.09 2.67 3.40 4.31 2.11 2.69 3.43 4.36 2.11 2.69 3.2037 1.75 2.26 2.90 3.72 2.14 2.75 3.54 4.54 2.16 2.78 3.57 4.58 2.17 2.80 3.2038 1.79 2.33 3.02 3.92 2.19 2.84 3.69 4.78 2.20 2.87 3.72 4.82 2.24 2.91 3.2039 1.83 2.41 3.15 4.12 2.23 2.94 3.85 5.03 2.25 2.96 3.88 5.07 2.31 3.03 3.2040 1.87 2.48 3.29 4.34 2.28 3.03 4.01 5.29 2.30 3.05 4.04 5.33 2.38 3.16 4.2041 1.91 2.57 3.43 4.57 2.34 3.13 4.18 5.57 2.35 3.15 4.21 5.61 2.45 3.28 4.

56
Table S-3, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation ra

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Vi

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL------------------------------------------ Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ - Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2012 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.19 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 2013 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.29 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 2014 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.06 1.10 1.13 1.16 1.36 1.40 1.44 1.49 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.09 2015 1.05 1.09 1.14 1.18 1.11 1.16 1.20 1.25 1.43 1.49 1.55 1.61 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.15 2016 1.08 1.13 1.18 1.24 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.36 1.50 1.57 1.65 1.73 1.05 1.11 1.16 1.22 2017 1.10 1.17 1.24 1.31 1.25 1.32 1.40 1.48 1.57 1.66 1.76 1.87 1.08 1.15 1.21 1.29 2018 1.13 1.21 1.30 1.39 1.31 1.41 1.50 1.61 1.64 1.76 1.88 2.01 1.11 1.19 1.27 1.36 2019 1.16 1.25 1.35 1.46 1.38 1.49 1.61 1.74 1.71 1.85 2.00 2.16 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.43 2020 1.19 1.30 1.42 1.54 1.43 1.56 1.71 1.86 1.78 1.94 2.12 2.31 1.18 1.29 1.41 1.53 2021 1.22 1.34 1.48 1.62 1.48 1.63 1.80 1.98 1.85 2.04 2.25 2.47 1.23 1.35 1.49 1.64 2022 1.24 1.38 1.54 1.71 1.54 1.71 1.90 2.11 1.92 2.14 2.38 2.64 1.28 1.42 1.58 1.76 2023 1.27 1.43 1.60 1.80 1.58 1.78 2.00 2.24 2.00 2.24 2.52 2.83 1.33 1.49 1.68 1.88 2024 1.30 1.47 1.67 1.89 1.65 1.87 2.12 2.40 2.07 2.35 2.67 3.02 1.39 1.58 1.79 2.02 2025 1.33 1.52 1.74 1.99 1.70 1.95 2.23 2.55 2.14 2.46 2.81 3.22 1.45 1.66 1.90 2.17 2026 1.36 1.58 1.82 2.10 1.75 2.03 2.34 2.70 2.21 2.56 2.96 3.42 1.50 1.73 2.01 2.32 2027 1.40 1.63 1.91 2.22 1.81 2.11 2.46 2.87 2.28 2.67 3.11 3.63 1.55 1.81 2.12 2.47 2028 1.43 1.69 1.99 2.34 1.86 2.20 2.59 3.05 2.34 2.77 3.26 3.84 1.60 1.89 2.22 2.61 2029 1.46 1.74 2.08 2.47 1.92 2.29 2.72 3.23 2.40 2.87 3.41 4.05 1.64 1.95 2.32 2.76 2030 1.49 1.79 2.15 2.58 1.96 2.36 2.84 3.40 2.43 2.93 3.52 4.22 1.68 2.02 2.42 2.91 2031 1.52 1.85 2.25 2.72 2.00 2.44 2.95 3.58 2.47 3.00 3.64 4.41 1.72 2.09 2.54 3.08 2032 1.56 1.91 2.34 2.87 2.05 2.52 3.08 3.77 2.51 3.08 3.77 4.61 1.78 2.19 2.68 3.27 2033 1.60 1.98 2.45 3.02 2.10 2.60 3.22 3.97 2.55 3.17 3.92 4.83 1.84 2.28 2.82 3.48 2034 1.63 2.04 2.55 3.18 2.15 2.69 3.37 4.19 2.62 3.28 4.09 5.10 1.90 2.38 2.97 3.70 2035 1.68 2.12 2.67 3.36 2.21 2.79 3.52 4.43 2.68 3.39 4.28 5.38 1.97 2.49 3.15 3.96 2036 1.72 2.19 2.79 3.54 2.26 2.88 3.67 4.66 2.75 3.50 4.46 5.67 2.04 2.60 3.32 4.21 2037 1.76 2.26 2.91 3.73 2.31 2.98 3.83 4.91 2.81 3.62 4.66 5.97 2.11 2.71 3.49 4.48 2038 1.80 2.34 3.03 3.93 2.36 3.08 3.99 5.17 2.88 3.74 4.86 6.29 2.18 2.83 3.67 4.76 2039 1.84 2.42 3.17 4.14 2.42 3.18 4.16 5.44 2.94 3.87 5.07 6.63 2.25 2.95 3.87 5.06 2040 1.88 2.50 3.30 4.36 2.47 3.28 4.34 5.73 3.02 4.00 5.29 6.99 2.32 3.08 4.07 5.38 2041 1.92 2.58 3.45 4.59 2.53 3.39 4.53 6.03 3.09 4.13 5.52 7.36 2.40 3.21 4.29 5.72 

57
Table S-3, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation ra

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Lou

Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Vi

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ -

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2012 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 2013 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.13 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.07 1.09 1.11 1.13 2014 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.13 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 1.19 1.23 1.27 1.30 1.09 1.13 1.16 1.19 2015 1.05 1.09 1.14 1.18 1.10 1.14 1.18 1.23 1.25 1.30 1.36 1.41 1.13 1.18 1.23 1.27 2016 1.08 1.13 1.19 1.24 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.34 1.31 1.38 1.45 1.52 1.17 1.23 1.29 1.35 2017 1.11 1.17 1.24 1.32 1.23 1.30 1.38 1.46 1.38 1.46 1.55 1.64 1.19 1.26 1.34 1.42 2018 1.14 1.22 1.30 1.39 1.29 1.39 1.48 1.59 1.44 1.54 1.65 1.76 1.22 1.31 1.40 1.49 2019 1.16 1.25 1.35 1.46 1.36 1.47 1.59 1.71 1.50 1.63 1.76 1.90 1.25 1.35 1.46 1.57 2020 1.19 1.30 1.42 1.55 1.41 1.54 1.68 1.83 1.56 1.70 1.86 2.03 1.30 1.42 1.55 1.69 2021 1.22 1.34 1.48 1.63 1.46 1.61 1.77 1.95 1.62 1.79 1.97 2.17 1.37 1.51 1.67 1.84 2022 1.25 1.39 1.54 1.72 1.52 1.69 1.88 2.09 1.68 1.88 2.09 2.32 1.45 1.61 1.79 1.99 2023 1.28 1.44 1.61 1.81 1.57 1.76 1.98 2.22 1.75 1.97 2.21 2.48 1.53 1.72 1.93 2.16 2024 1.31 1.48 1.68 1.90 1.63 1.85 2.10 2.38 1.82 2.06 2.34 2.65 1.62 1.84 2.09 2.36 2025 1.34 1.54 1.76 2.01 1.68 1.93 2.21 2.52 1.88 2.16 2.47 2.82 1.71 1.96 2.24 2.57 2026 1.38 1.59 1.84 2.13 1.73 2.00 2.31 2.67 1.94 2.25 2.60 3.00 1.79 2.07 2.40 2.77 2027 1.41 1.65 1.93 2.25 1.79 2.09 2.44 2.84 2.00 2.34 2.73 3.18 1.87 2.18 2.55 2.97 2028 1.45 1.72 2.02 2.38 1.84 2.17 2.56 3.01 2.06 2.43 2.86 3.37 1.93 2.27 2.68 3.15 2029 1.49 1.77 2.11 2.51 1.90 2.26 2.69 3.20 2.11 2.51 2.99 3.55 1.97 2.35 2.80 3.32 2030 1.52 1.83 2.20 2.63 1.93 2.33 2.79 3.35 2.13 2.57 3.09 3.70 2.01 2.42 2.91 3.49 2031 1.56 1.89 2.29 2.78 1.97 2.40 2.91 3.52 2.17 2.63 3.19 3.87 2.08 2.53 3.06 3.71 2032 1.60 1.96 2.40 2.93 2.02 2.48 3.03 3.71 2.20 2.70 3.31 4.04 2.16 2.65 3.24 3.96 2033 1.64 2.03 2.51 3.10 2.06 2.56 3.16 3.90 2.24 2.77 3.43 4.23 2.24 2.77 3.43 4.23 2034 1.68 2.10 2.62 3.27 2.12 2.65 3.31 4.12 2.29 2.87 3.58 4.47 2.33 2.91 3.64 4.53 2035 1.73 2.18 2.75 3.46 2.17 2.75 3.46 4.36 2.35 2.97 3.74 4.71 2.44 3.09 3.89 4.90 2036 1.77 2.26 2.88 3.66 2.22 2.84 3.61 4.59 2.40 3.07 3.90 4.96 2.55 3.25 4.14 5.26 2037 1.82 2.34 3.01 3.86 2.27 2.93 3.76 4.83 2.46 3.17 4.07 5.22 2.65 3.42 4.39 5.63 2038 1.86 2.42 3.15 4.08 2.32 3.02 3.92 5.08 2.52 3.28 4.25 5.51 2.76 3.59 4.66 6.04 2039 1.91 2.51 3.29 4.30 2.38 3.12 4.09 5.35 2.58 3.39 4.44 5.80 2.88 3.78 4.95 6.47 2040 1.96 2.60 3.44 4.54 2.43 3.22 4.27 5.63 2.64 3.50 4.63 6.11 2.99 3.97 5.26 6.94 2041 2.01 2.69 3.59 4.79 2.48 3.33 4.45 5.93 2.70 3.62 4.83 6.44 3.12 4.18 5.58 7.44 

58
Table S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates 

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

--------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil LPG 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ---------

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate In

Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 2012 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.00 12013 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.11 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.15 1.02 12014 1.07 1.10 1.13 1.16 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.15 1.19 1.22 1.03 12015 1.09 1.13 1.18 1.22 1.03 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.16 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.06 12016 1.10 1.15 1.21 1.27 1.08 1.14 1.19 1.25 1.20 1.26 1.32 1.38 1.09 12017 1.11 1.18 1.25 1.32 1.13 1.20 1.27 1.35 1.24 1.32 1.39 1.48 1.13 12018 1.12 1.20 1.29 1.38 1.18 1.27 1.36 1.45 1.29 1.38 1.47 1.58 1.17 12019 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.44 1.24 1.34 1.44 1.56 1.33 1.44 1.56 1.68 1.22 12020 1.16 1.27 1.38 1.50 1.29 1.41 1.53 1.67 1.38 1.50 1.64 1.79 1.27 12021 1.18 1.30 1.43 1.58 1.34 1.48 1.63 1.79 1.42 1.57 1.73 1.90 1.33 12022 1.21 1.34 1.49 1.66 1.39 1.55 1.73 1.92 1.47 1.63 1.82 2.02 1.38 12023 1.23 1.38 1.56 1.74 1.44 1.62 1.82 2.04 1.51 1.70 1.91 2.14 1.43 12024 1.26 1.43 1.62 1.84 1.49 1.69 1.92 2.17 1.56 1.77 2.00 2.27 1.48 12025 1.29 1.48 1.69 1.94 1.54 1.76 2.02 2.31 1.60 1.83 2.10 2.40 1.53 12026 1.32 1.53 1.77 2.04 1.59 1.84 2.12 2.45 1.64 1.90 2.20 2.54 1.59 12027 1.35 1.57 1.84 2.14 1.64 1.91 2.23 2.60 1.69 1.97 2.30 2.68 1.65 12028 1.37 1.62 1.90 2.24 1.68 1.99 2.34 2.75 1.73 2.04 2.41 2.83 1.70 22029 1.40 1.66 1.98 2.35 1.73 2.06 2.46 2.92 1.77 2.11 2.52 2.99 1.76 22030 1.42 1.70 2.05 2.45 1.79 2.15 2.58 3.10 1.82 2.19 2.63 3.15 1.81 22031 1.44 1.75 2.12 2.57 1.83 2.22 2.69 3.26 1.86 2.26 2.74 3.32 1.86 22032 1.46 1.80 2.20 2.69 1.86 2.28 2.80 3.42 1.90 2.33 2.85 3.48 1.92 22033 1.49 1.85 2.29 2.82 1.90 2.35 2.91 3.59 1.93 2.40 2.96 3.66 1.99 22034 1.52 1.91 2.38 2.97 1.94 2.43 3.03 3.78 1.97 2.47 3.08 3.84 2.07 22035 1.56 1.98 2.49 3.14 1.99 2.51 3.17 3.99 2.01 2.54 3.21 4.03 2.15 22036 1.60 2.04 2.60 3.30 2.03 2.60 3.30 4.20 2.05 2.62 3.34 4.24 2.22 22037 1.63 2.10 2.70 3.47 2.08 2.68 3.45 4.42 2.10 2.71 3.48 4.46 2.29 22038 1.67 2.17 2.81 3.64 2.13 2.77 3.59 4.65 2.15 2.79 3.62 4.69 2.36 32039 1.70 2.23 2.93 3.83 2.17 2.86 3.74 4.89 2.19 2.88 3.78 4.94 2.43 32040 1.73 2.30 3.05 4.02 2.22 2.95 3.90 5.15 2.24 2.97 3.93 5.19 2.51 32041 1.77 2.37 3.17 4.22 2.27 3.05 4.07 5.42 2.29 3.07 4.10 5.46 2.59 3

59
Table S-4, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation ra

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL------------------------------------------ Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ - Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2012 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 2013 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.33 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 2014 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 0.96 0.99 1.01 1.04 1.32 1.36 1.40 1.45 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.09 2015 1.06 1.11 1.15 1.20 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.40 1.45 1.51 1.57 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.14 2016 1.07 1.12 1.18 1.23 1.05 1.11 1.16 1.22 1.49 1.56 1.64 1.72 1.05 1.10 1.16 1.21 2017 1.07 1.14 1.21 1.28 1.11 1.17 1.24 1.32 1.57 1.66 1.76 1.86 1.09 1.15 1.22 1.29 2018 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.33 1.16 1.24 1.33 1.42 1.64 1.75 1.88 2.01 1.13 1.21 1.29 1.38 2019 1.10 1.18 1.28 1.38 1.22 1.32 1.42 1.54 1.70 1.84 1.99 2.15 1.17 1.27 1.37 1.48 2020 1.11 1.21 1.32 1.44 1.27 1.39 1.51 1.65 1.78 1.94 2.12 2.31 1.23 1.34 1.47 1.60 2021 1.13 1.24 1.37 1.51 1.33 1.46 1.61 1.77 1.85 2.04 2.24 2.47 1.29 1.42 1.56 1.72 2022 1.15 1.28 1.43 1.59 1.38 1.54 1.71 1.90 1.92 2.13 2.37 2.64 1.34 1.49 1.65 1.84 2023 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.67 1.43 1.61 1.81 2.03 1.99 2.24 2.51 2.82 1.38 1.56 1.75 1.96 2024 1.21 1.37 1.55 1.76 1.49 1.69 1.92 2.17 2.06 2.33 2.65 3.00 1.44 1.63 1.85 2.10 2025 1.24 1.42 1.62 1.85 1.54 1.76 2.02 2.31 2.13 2.44 2.79 3.19 1.49 1.71 1.95 2.23 2026 1.27 1.47 1.69 1.96 1.58 1.83 2.12 2.45 2.20 2.54 2.94 3.39 1.54 1.78 2.06 2.38 2027 1.28 1.50 1.75 2.04 1.64 1.91 2.24 2.60 2.26 2.65 3.09 3.60 1.60 1.87 2.18 2.54 2028 1.30 1.53 1.81 2.12 1.69 1.99 2.35 2.76 2.33 2.75 3.24 3.81 1.66 1.95 2.30 2.71 2029 1.32 1.57 1.87 2.22 1.74 2.07 2.47 2.93 2.39 2.85 3.39 4.03 1.71 2.03 2.42 2.88 2030 1.33 1.60 1.93 2.31 1.79 2.15 2.58 3.10 2.44 2.94 3.53 4.23 1.76 2.12 2.54 3.05 2031 1.35 1.64 1.99 2.41 1.83 2.22 2.69 3.26 2.49 3.03 3.67 4.44 1.81 2.20 2.67 3.23 2032 1.37 1.69 2.06 2.52 1.86 2.29 2.80 3.43 2.51 3.08 3.77 4.61 1.87 2.29 2.81 3.43 2033 1.40 1.73 2.14 2.64 1.90 2.36 2.92 3.60 2.56 3.18 3.93 4.85 1.94 2.40 2.97 3.66 2034 1.42 1.78 2.22 2.77 1.95 2.44 3.05 3.79 2.62 3.27 4.09 5.09 2.01 2.51 3.14 3.91 2035 1.46 1.85 2.33 2.93 2.00 2.53 3.19 4.01 2.68 3.39 4.27 5.37 2.08 2.64 3.32 4.18 2036 1.49 1.90 2.42 3.08 2.05 2.61 3.33 4.23 2.74 3.50 4.46 5.66 2.16 2.75 3.50 4.45 2037 1.52 1.96 2.52 3.23 2.09 2.70 3.47 4.45 2.81 3.62 4.65 5.97 2.23 2.87 3.69 4.73 2038 1.55 2.01 2.61 3.38 2.14 2.79 3.62 4.68 2.87 3.74 4.85 6.28 2.30 2.99 3.88 5.03 2039 1.58 2.07 2.71 3.55 2.19 2.88 3.77 4.93 2.94 3.86 5.07 6.62 2.38 3.12 4.09 5.35 2040 1.60 2.13 2.82 3.72 2.24 2.97 3.93 5.19 3.01 3.99 5.28 6.97 2.46 3.26 4.31 5.69 2041 1.64 2.19 2.93 3.90 2.29 3.07 4.10 5.46 3.08 4.13 5.51 7.35 2.54 3.40 4.54 6.05 

60
Table S-4, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation ra

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, 

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL------------------------------------------ Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ - Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2012 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 2013 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 2014 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.05 0.94 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.08 1.12 1.15 2015 1.07 1.11 1.15 1.20 1.01 1.05 1.09 1.13 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.08 1.12 1.17 1.21 2016 1.07 1.12 1.18 1.23 1.07 1.12 1.17 1.23 1.05 1.10 1.16 1.22 1.11 1.17 1.23 1.29 2017 1.08 1.14 1.21 1.28 1.12 1.19 1.26 1.34 1.10 1.17 1.24 1.31 1.15 1.22 1.30 1.37 2018 1.09 1.16 1.25 1.33 1.18 1.26 1.35 1.45 1.16 1.24 1.32 1.42 1.20 1.29 1.38 1.48 2019 1.10 1.19 1.29 1.39 1.24 1.34 1.45 1.56 1.21 1.31 1.41 1.52 1.26 1.36 1.47 1.59 2020 1.12 1.22 1.33 1.45 1.29 1.41 1.54 1.67 1.26 1.38 1.50 1.64 1.33 1.46 1.59 1.73 2021 1.13 1.25 1.37 1.51 1.34 1.48 1.63 1.79 1.31 1.44 1.59 1.75 1.41 1.55 1.71 1.88 2022 1.15 1.29 1.43 1.59 1.40 1.56 1.74 1.93 1.36 1.51 1.68 1.87 1.47 1.63 1.82 2.02 2023 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.67 1.45 1.63 1.83 2.05 1.41 1.59 1.78 2.00 1.53 1.72 1.93 2.16 2024 1.21 1.37 1.56 1.76 1.51 1.71 1.94 2.20 1.46 1.66 1.88 2.13 1.59 1.80 2.04 2.31 2025 1.24 1.42 1.62 1.86 1.56 1.78 2.04 2.34 1.51 1.73 1.98 2.27 1.65 1.89 2.16 2.47 2026 1.27 1.47 1.70 1.96 1.60 1.85 2.14 2.47 1.56 1.81 2.09 2.41 1.71 1.98 2.29 2.64 2027 1.29 1.51 1.76 2.05 1.66 1.94 2.26 2.64 1.61 1.88 2.19 2.56 1.78 2.08 2.43 2.84 2028 1.31 1.55 1.82 2.14 1.71 2.01 2.37 2.79 1.65 1.95 2.30 2.70 1.85 2.18 2.57 3.03 2029 1.33 1.59 1.89 2.25 1.76 2.10 2.50 2.97 1.69 2.01 2.40 2.85 1.91 2.28 2.72 3.23 2030 1.35 1.62 1.95 2.34 1.80 2.17 2.61 3.12 1.71 2.06 2.48 2.97 1.98 2.38 2.86 3.43 2031 1.37 1.66 2.02 2.44 1.84 2.23 2.71 3.28 1.74 2.12 2.57 3.11 2.03 2.47 3.00 3.63 2032 1.39 1.71 2.09 2.56 1.88 2.31 2.82 3.45 1.76 2.17 2.65 3.24 2.10 2.58 3.16 3.86 2033 1.42 1.76 2.17 2.68 1.92 2.38 2.94 3.63 1.80 2.23 2.76 3.40 2.18 2.70 3.35 4.13 2034 1.45 1.81 2.26 2.82 1.97 2.46 3.07 3.83 1.84 2.30 2.88 3.58 2.27 2.84 3.55 4.42 2035 1.49 1.88 2.37 2.98 2.02 2.55 3.22 4.05 1.89 2.38 3.01 3.78 2.37 3.00 3.78 4.76 2036 1.52 1.94 2.47 3.14 2.07 2.64 3.36 4.27 1.93 2.46 3.14 3.99 2.47 3.15 4.01 5.09 2037 1.55 2.00 2.57 3.29 2.11 2.73 3.50 4.49 1.98 2.55 3.27 4.20 2.56 3.30 4.25 5.45 2038 1.58 2.06 2.67 3.46 2.16 2.81 3.65 4.73 2.02 2.63 3.42 4.43 2.66 3.46 4.49 5.82 2039 1.61 2.12 2.78 3.63 2.21 2.91 3.81 4.98 2.07 2.72 3.57 4.66 2.76 3.63 4.76 6.22 2040 1.64 2.18 2.89 3.81 2.26 3.00 3.97 5.24 2.12 2.81 3.72 4.91 2.87 3.81 5.04 6.65 2041 1.67 2.24 3.00 4.00 2.31 3.10 4.14 5.52 2.17 2.91 3.88 5.18 2.98 4.00 5.34 7.12 

61
Table S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates 

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

United States Average 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

--------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL------------------------------------------ Electricity Distillate Oil LPG Natural  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ --------------- Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation RYear 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 2012 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 0.99 1.00 1.2013 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.13 1.15 1.17 1.19 1.01 1.03 1.2014 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.15 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.17 1.20 1.24 1.27 1.02 1.05 1.2015 1.08 1.12 1.16 1.21 1.06 1.11 1.15 1.19 1.21 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.04 1.08 1.2016 1.09 1.15 1.20 1.26 1.12 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.25 1.31 1.37 1.44 1.07 1.13 1.2017 1.11 1.18 1.25 1.32 1.18 1.26 1.33 1.41 1.29 1.37 1.45 1.54 1.11 1.17 1.2018 1.13 1.21 1.29 1.38 1.24 1.33 1.42 1.52 1.34 1.44 1.54 1.64 1.14 1.22 1.2019 1.15 1.24 1.34 1.45 1.30 1.41 1.52 1.64 1.39 1.50 1.63 1.75 1.18 1.28 1.2020 1.17 1.28 1.39 1.52 1.35 1.47 1.61 1.75 1.44 1.57 1.71 1.87 1.23 1.35 1.2021 1.19 1.31 1.45 1.59 1.39 1.54 1.69 1.86 1.49 1.64 1.81 1.99 1.28 1.41 1.2022 1.21 1.35 1.50 1.67 1.44 1.61 1.79 1.99 1.53 1.71 1.90 2.11 1.33 1.48 1.2023 1.24 1.39 1.56 1.75 1.49 1.67 1.88 2.11 1.58 1.78 1.99 2.24 1.38 1.55 1.2024 1.26 1.43 1.62 1.84 1.54 1.75 1.99 2.25 1.63 1.85 2.09 2.37 1.43 1.63 1.2025 1.29 1.47 1.69 1.93 1.59 1.83 2.09 2.39 1.67 1.92 2.20 2.51 1.48 1.70 1.2026 1.31 1.52 1.76 2.03 1.64 1.90 2.19 2.53 1.72 1.99 2.30 2.66 1.54 1.78 2.2027 1.34 1.57 1.83 2.13 1.69 1.98 2.31 2.69 1.77 2.07 2.41 2.81 1.59 1.86 2.2028 1.37 1.61 1.90 2.24 1.74 2.05 2.42 2.85 1.81 2.14 2.52 2.97 1.64 1.94 2.2029 1.40 1.66 1.98 2.35 1.79 2.14 2.54 3.02 1.86 2.22 2.64 3.13 1.69 2.01 2.2030 1.42 1.71 2.06 2.47 1.83 2.21 2.65 3.18 1.90 2.29 2.75 3.30 1.74 2.09 2.2031 1.45 1.76 2.14 2.59 1.87 2.28 2.76 3.35 1.95 2.37 2.87 3.48 1.79 2.18 2.2032 1.48 1.82 2.23 2.72 1.92 2.35 2.88 3.53 1.99 2.44 2.99 3.65 1.85 2.27 2.2033 1.52 1.88 2.32 2.87 1.96 2.43 3.01 3.71 2.03 2.51 3.11 3.84 1.91 2.37 2.2034 1.55 1.94 2.42 3.02 2.01 2.52 3.15 3.92 2.07 2.59 3.24 4.03 1.97 2.47 3.2035 1.59 2.01 2.53 3.19 2.06 2.61 3.29 4.14 2.11 2.67 3.37 4.24 2.05 2.59 3.2036 1.62 2.07 2.64 3.35 2.11 2.69 3.43 4.35 2.16 2.75 3.50 4.45 2.11 2.69 3.2037 1.66 2.14 2.74 3.52 2.16 2.78 3.57 4.58 2.20 2.84 3.65 4.68 2.18 2.80 3.2038 1.69 2.20 2.86 3.70 2.20 2.87 3.72 4.82 2.25 2.93 3.80 4.92 2.24 2.92 3.2039 1.73 2.27 2.97 3.89 2.25 2.96 3.88 5.07 2.30 3.02 3.96 5.18 2.31 3.04 3.2040 1.76 2.34 3.09 4.08 2.30 3.06 4.04 5.34 2.35 3.12 4.12 5.44 2.38 3.16 4.2041 1.80 2.41 3.22 4.29 2.35 3.15 4.22 5.62 2.40 3.22 4.30 5.73 2.46 3.30 4.

62
Table S-5, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation ra

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

United States Average 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL------------------------------------------ Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ - Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2012 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 2013 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 0.86 0.88 0.89 0.91 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 2014 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.12 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.15 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.00 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.07 2015 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.17 1.10 1.14 1.19 1.24 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.09 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.13 2016 1.06 1.11 1.16 1.22 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.35 1.03 1.08 1.13 1.19 1.03 1.08 1.14 1.19 2017 1.08 1.14 1.21 1.28 1.23 1.30 1.38 1.46 1.08 1.15 1.22 1.29 1.06 1.12 1.19 1.26 2018 1.10 1.17 1.26 1.34 1.29 1.39 1.48 1.59 1.14 1.22 1.30 1.39 1.09 1.17 1.25 1.34 2019 1.12 1.21 1.30 1.41 1.36 1.47 1.58 1.71 1.18 1.28 1.38 1.49 1.13 1.22 1.32 1.43 2020 1.14 1.25 1.36 1.48 1.41 1.54 1.68 1.83 1.23 1.35 1.47 1.60 1.18 1.29 1.40 1.53 2021 1.16 1.28 1.41 1.56 1.46 1.61 1.77 1.95 1.29 1.42 1.56 1.72 1.23 1.35 1.49 1.64 2022 1.19 1.32 1.47 1.63 1.52 1.69 1.88 2.09 1.35 1.50 1.67 1.86 1.27 1.41 1.57 1.75 2023 1.21 1.36 1.53 1.72 1.56 1.76 1.97 2.21 1.43 1.61 1.81 2.03 1.32 1.48 1.67 1.87 2024 1.24 1.41 1.59 1.81 1.63 1.85 2.09 2.37 1.49 1.69 1.91 2.17 1.37 1.56 1.77 2.00 2025 1.27 1.45 1.66 1.90 1.68 1.92 2.20 2.52 1.53 1.76 2.01 2.30 1.42 1.63 1.87 2.14 2026 1.29 1.50 1.73 2.00 1.73 2.00 2.31 2.67 1.58 1.83 2.11 2.44 1.47 1.70 1.97 2.27 2027 1.32 1.54 1.80 2.10 1.78 2.08 2.43 2.83 1.63 1.90 2.22 2.59 1.52 1.78 2.08 2.42 2028 1.35 1.59 1.87 2.20 1.83 2.17 2.55 3.00 1.67 1.97 2.33 2.74 1.57 1.85 2.19 2.57 2029 1.37 1.64 1.95 2.31 1.89 2.26 2.68 3.19 1.72 2.05 2.44 2.90 1.62 1.93 2.29 2.72 2030 1.40 1.68 2.02 2.42 1.93 2.33 2.79 3.35 1.76 2.12 2.54 3.05 1.66 2.00 2.40 2.88 2031 1.42 1.73 2.10 2.54 1.97 2.40 2.91 3.52 1.80 2.19 2.66 3.22 1.71 2.07 2.52 3.05 2032 1.46 1.79 2.19 2.68 2.02 2.48 3.04 3.71 1.84 2.26 2.77 3.38 1.76 2.16 2.65 3.24 2033 1.49 1.84 2.28 2.82 2.06 2.56 3.17 3.91 1.89 2.34 2.89 3.57 1.82 2.25 2.79 3.44 2034 1.52 1.90 2.38 2.96 2.12 2.65 3.31 4.13 1.94 2.42 3.03 3.77 1.88 2.35 2.94 3.66 2035 1.56 1.97 2.49 3.13 2.17 2.75 3.46 4.36 1.99 2.51 3.17 3.99 1.95 2.46 3.11 3.91 2036 1.60 2.04 2.60 3.30 2.23 2.84 3.62 4.59 2.04 2.60 3.31 4.21 2.02 2.57 3.27 4.16 2037 1.63 2.11 2.71 3.47 2.28 2.93 3.77 4.84 2.09 2.69 3.45 4.43 2.08 2.68 3.45 4.42 2038 1.67 2.17 2.82 3.65 2.33 3.03 3.93 5.09 2.14 2.78 3.61 4.67 2.15 2.80 3.63 4.71 2039 1.70 2.23 2.93 3.83 2.38 3.13 4.10 5.36 2.18 2.87 3.76 4.92 2.22 2.92 3.83 5.01 2040 1.73 2.30 3.05 4.02 2.43 3.23 4.27 5.64 2.24 2.97 3.93 5.18 2.30 3.05 4.03 5.33 2041 1.77 2.37 3.17 4.22 2.49 3.34 4.46 5.94 2.29 3.07 4.10 5.46 2.38 3.18 4.25 5.67 

63
Table S-5, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation ra

of 2 %, 3 %, 4 %, and 5 %, by end-use sector and fuel type. 

United States Average 

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2011 = 1.00) 

----------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL------------------------------------------ Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas  ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ - Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Year 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2 % 3 % 4 % 5 % 2012 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 2013 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.05 1.07 1.09 1.11 2014 1.03 1.06 1.10 1.13 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.16 1.19 1.23 1.26 1.07 1.11 1.14 1.17 2015 1.05 1.10 1.14 1.18 1.06 1.11 1.15 1.19 1.22 1.26 1.31 1.37 1.10 1.15 1.19 1.24 2016 1.07 1.13 1.18 1.24 1.13 1.18 1.24 1.30 1.28 1.34 1.41 1.48 1.14 1.20 1.26 1.32 2017 1.09 1.16 1.23 1.30 1.19 1.26 1.34 1.42 1.34 1.42 1.50 1.59 1.17 1.24 1.32 1.40 2018 1.12 1.20 1.28 1.37 1.25 1.34 1.44 1.53 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.71 1.21 1.29 1.38 1.48 2019 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.44 1.31 1.42 1.53 1.66 1.46 1.58 1.70 1.84 1.25 1.35 1.46 1.58 2020 1.17 1.27 1.39 1.51 1.36 1.49 1.63 1.77 1.51 1.65 1.80 1.97 1.31 1.43 1.56 1.70 2021 1.19 1.31 1.45 1.59 1.41 1.56 1.72 1.89 1.58 1.74 1.91 2.10 1.38 1.52 1.68 1.85 2022 1.22 1.36 1.51 1.67 1.47 1.64 1.82 2.03 1.64 1.82 2.03 2.25 1.45 1.61 1.79 1.99 2023 1.25 1.40 1.57 1.76 1.52 1.71 1.92 2.15 1.71 1.92 2.15 2.42 1.51 1.70 1.91 2.14 2024 1.27 1.45 1.64 1.86 1.58 1.79 2.03 2.30 1.77 2.01 2.28 2.58 1.59 1.81 2.05 2.32 2025 1.30 1.50 1.71 1.96 1.63 1.87 2.14 2.45 1.83 2.10 2.40 2.74 1.67 1.92 2.19 2.51 2026 1.34 1.55 1.79 2.07 1.68 1.94 2.24 2.59 1.89 2.18 2.53 2.91 1.74 2.02 2.33 2.69 2027 1.37 1.60 1.86 2.17 1.73 2.03 2.36 2.76 1.94 2.27 2.65 3.09 1.81 2.12 2.47 2.88 2028 1.40 1.65 1.95 2.29 1.78 2.10 2.48 2.92 2.00 2.36 2.78 3.27 1.87 2.21 2.61 3.07 2029 1.43 1.71 2.03 2.42 1.84 2.19 2.61 3.10 2.05 2.44 2.90 3.45 1.93 2.30 2.73 3.25 2030 1.46 1.76 2.12 2.54 1.88 2.26 2.71 3.25 2.08 2.50 3.00 3.60 1.98 2.38 2.86 3.43 2031 1.50 1.82 2.21 2.67 1.91 2.33 2.82 3.42 2.11 2.57 3.12 3.77 2.04 2.48 3.01 3.64 2032 1.53 1.88 2.30 2.82 1.96 2.40 2.94 3.60 2.15 2.64 3.23 3.95 2.11 2.59 3.17 3.87 2033 1.57 1.94 2.41 2.97 2.00 2.48 3.07 3.79 2.19 2.72 3.36 4.15 2.19 2.71 3.35 4.14 2034 1.61 2.01 2.51 3.13 2.05 2.57 3.21 4.00 2.24 2.81 3.51 4.37 2.27 2.85 3.55 4.43 2035 1.65 2.09 2.64 3.32 2.11 2.66 3.36 4.22 2.30 2.91 3.67 4.61 2.38 3.01 3.79 4.77 2036 1.70 2.17 2.76 3.50 2.16 2.75 3.50 4.45 2.36 3.01 3.83 4.86 2.47 3.15 4.02 5.10 2037 1.74 2.24 2.88 3.69 2.20 2.84 3.65 4.68 2.41 3.11 4.00 5.12 2.57 3.31 4.25 5.45 2038 1.78 2.31 3.00 3.89 2.25 2.93 3.81 4.93 2.47 3.21 4.17 5.40 2.67 3.47 4.51 5.84 2039 1.82 2.39 3.13 4.09 2.31 3.03 3.97 5.19 2.53 3.32 4.35 5.69 2.78 3.65 4.78 6.25 2040 1.86 2.47 3.27 4.31 2.36 3.13 4.14 5.46 2.59 3.43 4.54 5.99 2.89 3.83 5.07 6.69 2041 1.90 2.55 3.41 4.54 2.41 3.23 4.32 5.75 2.65 3.54 4.74 6.31 3.01 4.03 5.38 7.17 

64