NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

UWIG Forecasting Workshop ─ Albany

UWIG Spring Technical 

Workshop

Kansas City, Missouri

Debbie Lew 

April 15, 2011

NREL/PR-5500-51494

PIX 17777
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Make Wind like hydro

without the fish.

Best Quote

Steve Kropper Wind Pole
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What Are Some of the Different Forecasting 

Approaches?

Windpole
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Value of Data

Best resolution to an ongoing debate.
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What is the Value of Onsite Data?
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What is the Value of Offsite Data?
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Can’t I Just Set Up an Upstream Met Tower?
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Statistical vs. Atmospheric Modeling 

Approaches
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For very short-term forecast: methodology 

has to extremely fast, so 5 minutes from 

measurement until delivery of forecast is 

needed (incl. data transfer, data check, 

calculation time, and forecast delivery).
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Best Undermining of Own Business Interests

Mark Ahlstrom, Windlogics

• Consider the big picture!

• Sure more wind data is 

helpful. But is it worth it?

• The value of forecasting 

is driven by market rules 

and power system 

operations. Wind 

forecasting is ONE of 

the tools to more cost- effectively integrate 

wind. There may be 

cheaper, easier ways.

Goal is to economically and reliably integrate renewable energy
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Ramp Forecasting
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Value of Forecasting ─ WWSIS
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How to Use Probabilistic Forecasts
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Excitement Over Model Improvements

• DOE/NOAA partnership.

• RR and HRRR model.

• Need for fundamental research to improve NWP 

models and more observational data to better 

address what is happening at hub height, rather 

than present focus on precipitation and 

temperature at ground level.
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Best Impersonation Attempt
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Best Unintended Consequence
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Treat Wind Like Other Generators
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Ramp Forecasts
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Most Challenging Job
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Metrics
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Probabilistic Tools
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Improved forecasts improve market 

efficiency for all market participants

Shorter intervals = reduced forecast errors.
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How are Utilities Using the Forecasts?
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What Are the Challenges?