NBSIR 73-407

Report on a Pre-Test of a Survey

Plan for Estimating Incidence of

Lead Based Paint

Lambert S. Joel

Applied Mathematics Division

Institute for Basic Standards

and

Harvey W. Berger

Center for Building Technology

Institute for Applied Technology

National Bureau of Standards

Washington, D. C. 20234

December 1973

Final Report

Prepared for Office of Policy Development and Research

Department of Housing and Urban Development

Washington, D. C. 20410

NBSIR 73-407

REPORT ON A PRE-TEST OF A SURVEY

PLAN FOR ESTIMATING INCIDENCE OF

LEAD BASED PAINT

Lambert S. Joel

Applied Mathematics Division

Institute for Basic Standards

and

Harvey W. Berger

Center for Building Technology

Institute for Applied Technology

National Bureau of Standards

Washington, D. C. 20234

December 1973

Final Report

Prepared for Office of Policy Development and Research

Department of Housing and Urban Development

Washington, D. C. 20410

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE, Frederick B. Dent. Secretary

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS, Richard W. Roberts, Director

Acknowledgment

Acknowledgment is gratefully extended to Elizabeth Clark and

McClure Godette (Structures, Materials and Life Safety Division, lAT)

,

who performed the chemical analyses of the paint samples, and to

Dr. Jim Filliben (Applied Mathematics Division, IBS) , whose computer

program for statistical analysis with nomograph output was utilized in

processing the results of the lead measurements.
Contents

Page

Abstract i

. 1. Introduction 1

2. Methods of Chemical Analysis of Liquid Paints 3

3. Statistical Summaries 6

3.1. Lead Content Distributions 9

3.2. Label Warning 13

3.3. Replicates 14

4. Deductions from the Pre-Test Sample 18

5. References 23

Appendix ........ 24
Abstract

Lead in paint has been indicted as a major cause of lead poisoning

of children. Federal regulations have been established to limit the

amount of lead which may be added to paints that are intended for

residential use. The intent of such a limitation is to curtail the

incidence of present and future lead based paint poisoning of children.

This report presents the results of a "pre-test" for a nationwide survey plan that would be used to determine the availability,

to the public, of paints that may contain lead compounds in hazardous

quantities. Statistical summaries of the chemical analysis of 250

paints purchased by random, selection at five retail outlets, are presented along with comments regarding the possible implications of those

results. Recommendations concerning additional survey action beyond

the pre-test are described herein.

Key Words: Lead; lead paint poisoning; paints; poisoning; retail

inventory; statistics; survey

i

Report on a Pre-Test of a Survey Plan

for Estimating Incidence of Lead Based Paint

1. Introduction

A primary cause of lead poisoning of children may be the ingestion of

lead based paints from walls and other residential surfaces, particularly by

children with pica, an aggravated tendency to consume non-food substances.

Concern over the currently determined, and projected future, incidence of lead poisoning resulted in legislation intended to limit the

use of lead based paint, in order to prevent its application to surfaces

that might be accessible to young children.

The Lead Based Paint Poisoning Prevention Act, PL 91-695, which

was signed into law in January 1971, defined lead based paint as that

which contains more than 1% lead, by weight, in the total non-volatile

solids content of a whole paint.*

In keeping with certain responsibilities imposed on it by PL 91-695,

the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) requested the

National Bureau of Standards (NBS) to develop a plan for carrying out

a survey of lead levels in the nation-wide retail inventory of paints

produced for residential use.

The NBS proceeded to fulfill two objectives with regard to the

so-called "lead paint survey" assignment. First, a nation-wide purchasing plan was developed and implemented in order to determine the

availability of lead based paint to the public via the retail market.

Approximately 400 cans of paint were purchased according to a deliberately

* In 1972 (after the completion of the work described herein) the allowable level was reduced to 1/2% by FDA under authority established by

the Hazardous Substances Act.

1
biased plan which selected those paint colors thought likely to contain

lead. The results of that survey were published in an NBS Report in

1972 [1]. Second, a private consulting firm was commissioned to develop

a nation-wide sam.pling plan based upon random selection and sound statistical methodologies. It was originally intended that the consulting

firm would develop a selection process for procuring paint samples, and

that alternatives would be presented which would indicate trade-offs

between the size (cost) of the sample population for a nation-wide survey

and the reliability of the conclusions derived from it.

As work progressed on the sampling plan, the complexities of the

inventory survey problem became increasingly evident and the objectives

of the contract were revised. In brief, the revised contract called for

the selection and procurement of 250 paint samples (50 in each of 5

paint retail outlets) which would be analyzed for lead content by NBS.

The data resulting from this first "pre-test" could be used to develop

the alternatives described above for the nation-wide survey plan. The

pre-test had originally been planned primarily for the usual "nonstatistical" purposes of establishing information about survey costs,

development of data recording procedures, discovering any possible difficulties in the physical execution of the survey plan, etc. The contractor's

report [2] contains: (a) estimates of the size of the TI.S. retail inventory, number of retail outlets and the number of manufacturers: (b) a

discussion of alternatives to the survey target population (retail paints)

(c) a detailed analysis of development costs and methods for a sampling

plan; and (d) computer simulations of several candidate sam.pling schemes.

2
This report summarizes the results of the chemical analyses and

presents a brief discussion of the implication of the pre-test results.

2. Methods of Chemical Analysis of Liquid Paints

All of the paints were mechanically shaken in their original, unopened, containers for five minutes immediately prior to the removal of

sample quantities for chemical analysis. Four samples were taken frofii

each paint can; two for determining the percent solids (pigments, extenders and non-volatile components) and two for determining the percent

lead. Two samples were taken from each spray paint container for determining the percent lead.

The percentage by weight of the solids in each liquid paint was determined by 1) accurately weighing approximately 0.3 gram (gm) of liquid

paint into an aluminum weighing dish; 2) adding benzene as a diluent for

organic solvent type paints (alkyds, oils, varnish, etc.), water as a

diluent for latex paints, in order to spread the sample over the interior

of the dish; and 3) placing the sample in a drying oven, set at 150°C,

for one hour. The weighing dish containing the dried paint was then air

cooled, the sample reweighed, and the percent solids calculated on the

basis of weight differences.

The samples that were taken for the analysis of lead content were

prepared by accurately weighing approximately one gram, of the liquid

paint into Vycor crucibles. The samples were dry-ashed in a muffle

furnace at 500°C for up to 18 hours (overnight) . The samples were

3
removed from the furnace, allowed to cool to room temperature and then were

subjected to wet digestion, while heating on a hot plate, by consecutive

5 milliliter (ml) additions of concentrated nitric and perchloric acids.

After 2-3 hours of digestion the samples were quantitatively transferred

to 100 ml. volumetric flasks and diluted to volume with distilled water.

All of the paint samples were analyzed immediately after their

final dilution by means of routine atomic absorption spectrophotometry

techniques and instrumentation. Calibration standards were prepared

daily by diluting reagent grade lead acetate solutions, containing 1000

parts per million (ppm) of lead, to appropriately lower concentrations.

The detection limit for lead, using atomic absorption techniques,

is 0.1 ppm. A one gram sample of liquid paint, having 507- solids, which

contains 1% lead, will result in a concentration of 50 ppm when diluted

to 100 ml of solution. Therefore, such a sam.ple contains 500 times the

detection limit of the procedure. The accuracy of the analysis of

samples having lead concentrations near the detection limit can be increased by taking a larger sample for analysis or by reducing the volume

of the final diluted solution.

The tabulated percentage lead contents of the paint are related to

the instrument readings as follows:

% Lead = F x 10"^ x V x 100

W X F

where P is the instrument reading in ppm

V is the (diluted) sample volume in ml, usually about 100 ml

W is the sample weight in grams, usually about 1 gm

4
F is the sample fraction of nonvolatile solids, which ranged from

about .14 to .75 with a median value of about .6

The testing procedure for the sample of 250 cans was specifically

aimed at identifying "lead based paints" according to the 1% criterion

defined in PL 91-695. (Such paints will be designated LB throughout the

remainder of this report.) The measurement procedure was calibrated

therefore, to have greatest accuracy for lead content between .5% and

1.5%. Paints with lead contents recorded above this level do contain

more than 1.5% lead, but the indicated measurements are not highly

reliable, with possible error up to 30% of true values.

Although the mean error, as indicated by differences in the paired

sample determinations, was small for paints with extremely low lead

content (i.e., less than .05%), some paired determinations differed by

as much as a factor of 3 because in the calculation of the lead percentages from the instrument readings, small differences in sample

weight and volume, coupled with even minimal variation in instrument

readings could produce this imprecision at low lead levels. (See formula

above .

)

The computer outputs reproduced in the Appendix, divide various

groupings of the sample paints into six lead content intervals whose

boundaries are 0 to 0.6%; .0601 to .1%; .1001 to .5%; .5001 to 1%;

1.001 to 10%; and over 10%. (As stated above in the general description

of the testing procedure, each tabulated measurement is the average of

two readings.)

The variable precision of the measurements should be kept in mind

in drawing inferences from the tabulations.
3. Statistical Summaries

The pre-test sample was drawn from five stores selected to represent distinct types of retail outlets. These five types and the sizes

of their inventories of included coatings* are:

. 1. (4682 cans) - General hardware store located in a suburban

city neighborhood.

2. (31,781 cans) - Large local wholesale and retail "discount"

paint and wallpaper store.

3. (23,427 cans) - Department store from a major national chain.

4. (965 cans) - Local paint store in the "inner city".

5. (2054 cans) - Semirural small paint factory with direct

factory retail store.

The distinctive characteristics of these 5 stores are reflected

clearly in the distributions (table 1) , by primary recommended use and

by can size, of the paints in the actual samples.

Paints clearly intended for nonresidential use, such as boat paints

and certain varieties of lacquer, were exculded in advance from the

sample by omitting them from the inventory listing from which the

random entries were chosen. Containers larger than 5 gallons were

also excluded as not being for residential use.

6
Table 1

Cans in Store Samples by Specified Use and Can Size

Recommended

Use 1

Store

2 Number

3 4 5

Walls 5 16 14 16 3

Floors 4 1 5 7 7

Metal 7 1 3 0 2

Wood 11 6 4 5 18

Trim 6 12 7 8 12

Concrete 2 3 0 0 0

"Any Surface" 12 9 17 12 5

Not Designated 2 2 0 2 1

Total 49 50 50 50 48

Can Size

5 Gallon* 0 0 0 0 0

2 Gallon 0 2 2 0 0

1 Gallon 9 26 38 27 21

J ; 1 4 6 7 7

Pint 9 3 2 4 5

1/2 Pint 7 1 0 5 8

Spray 9 4 2 7 7

Total 49 50 50 50 48

* Five gallons was the largest container allowed in the sample, but

none were actually selected via the random selection process.

7
The following items were recorded for each randomly chosen sample

"element" on field forms used by the survey staff.

1. A line number

2. Can serial number assigned in a listing of the store inventory

for purposes of random selection.

3. Purchase status—whether the selected can actually was

purchased, and if not, why not (e.g., "serial number not

assigned", "can already sold", etc.

4. Inclusion status; to identify cans that were included but

about which there V7as some question as to whether they fell

under the current definition of "included coatings", the

target population.

5. Cost exclusive of sales tax.

6. Manufacturer name and address

7. Brand or grade name

8. Labeled recommended use

9. Paint type or base

10. Color (name and, if available, manufacturer's identifying

color number)

11. Mixing status: Pre-mixed, tinting base, tinting color,

custom mixed.

12. Size of can

13. Type of can; regular or spray

14 . Lead warning on label

15. Manufacturer's lot number, if known.

8
For the computer analysis of the test results, a card was prepared

for each can actually in the test, using the line numbers prefixed by

a store index, and other information abridged and indexed from the field

forms and the can labels. The list of tabulated categories and tabulations of the measurements of the lead contents of 247 paints are given

in the Appendix, table Al. The absence of three paints from, the

originally selected 250 (50 from each of 5 stores) furnished an example

of slippage in sampling. Two 1/2 pint cans (one from store 1 and one

from store 5) disappeared somewhere in transit. One 1 quart can from

store 5 opened and spilled during shipment.

Table 2 lists all individual classes which on the sample had over

15% cans of LB paint, in decreasing order according to LB percentage.

Such a tabulation from a very small sample cannot be the basis for

quantitative inferences, but it can help to sharpen the qualitative

analysis and also focus attention on objectives for further pre-tests.

Summary test results relevant to the objectives of a lead survey

are listed and discussed below.

3.1. Lead Content Distributions

Of the total 247 can sample, 28 cans (11%) were LB. This is considerably lower than the 25% found in the "suspicious" sample reported

in [1] > but somewhat higher than the pre-survey expectation of 5% to 9%

for the United States national total.

The percentage of LB paints in the 5 stores ranged from 4 to 16.

This variation exceeded expectations.

9
Table 2

Sample Paint Classes with Over 15% LB

Category Descriptor

Label Warning

Label Warning

Manufacturer

Paint Type

Manufacturer

Manufacturer

Use

Color

Can Size

Manufacturer

Paint Type

Manufacturer

Exterior or Interior

Specification

Finish

Color

Use

Color

Paint Type

Manufacturer

Inter. Exter. Spec.

Can Size

Store

Use

Store

Class

Descriptor

"Dangerous"

Listed

Lead Compounds

Oil-Exterior

Class* Cans LB/ Total Cans/

Index Class Class

For Metal

Green

1/2 Pint

Alkyd Exterior

Either

Gloss '

' ^

Yellow

For Wood

Red

Alkyd-Interior

Exterior

1 Pint

Floors

(4)

(2)

(23)

((^)

(3)

(34)

(3)

(7)

(5)

(26)

(2)

(9)

(3)

(2)

(14)

(4)

(12)

(1)

(32)

(2)

(4)

(5)

(2)

(1)

12

3

2

5

6

3

6

10

8

1

3

4

15

21

6

9

1

15

5

6

4

12

3

2

6

8

6

13

25

21

3

10

17

67

97

29

44

5

80

26

34

23

48

24

49

% LB/

Class

100

100

100

83

75

50

46

40

38

33

30

24

22

22

21

21

20

19

19

18

17

17

17

16

% LB

Rank

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

* See Appendix, table Al.

10
Of the 80 cans of latex paint in the sample (32% of the total) there

were no LB paints. Indeed, 94% (75) of the cans of latex paint satisfied the 0.06%* lead limitation, proposed by several witnesses in hearings

before the Subcommittee on Health of the U.S. Senate Committee on Labor

and Public Welfare (1970-71), and in the other 5 cans, the highest lead

content recorded was 0.21%. This is apparently in sharp contrast to the

result of the sampling in [1] of 341 cans in which 22 out of 187, or 12%,

were found to be LB. In that latex sample, however only 1 out of 27

tinting bases and 2 out of 88 factory mixed paints (about 2 1/2% of the

115) were LB while 17 of 72 (26%) of the custom mixed paints were LB.

Thus, the supposition is fairly strong that the high lead content was

contributed by the (non-latex) yellow, green and orange tinting colors

used in custom mixing, and that the LB discrepance between the latex

components of the subject sample and the previous one is very, much

smaller than would appear. On the other hand, none of the (7) tinting

bases, (6) custom mixed paints or (2) tinting colors in the present sample

were LB, all testing well below 1/2% lead. In other words, these classes

do exhibit marked differences in the two tests.

Considered separately, the non-latex paints constitute a 167 can

sample with an LB ratio of 28/167 or 17%. The store subsample sizes from

this sample have wide variation, but the spread among stores in the percentages of LB paint, is considerably smaller than the spread in the

earlier survey. Table 3 summarizes this information.

* Interpretation of thest extremely low lead readings is subject to the

limitation on accuracy of the measurement technique discussed above in

section 2.

11
Table 3

Distribution of LB Paints in the 5 Store Samples

Store 1 Store 2 Store 3 Store 4 Store

All Cans 49 50 50 50 48

Non Latex 45 27 13 37 45

LB All Cans 8 5 2 5 8

LB Non Latex 8 ^ 5 2 5 8

LB% All Cans 16 10 4 4 10

LB% Non Latex 18 19 15 14 18

All Non Latex

Mean (y) of % LB (by store) 11.4 16.8

Variance 27.8 4.70

Standard Deviation (a) 5.27 2.17

Coefficient of Variation (a/y) .46 .13

12
3.2. Label Warning

Label warnings specifically concerning lead contents of paints were

noticeably scarce in the sample. Labels on 190 (77%) , of the 247 cans

had no safety statement, other than some routine admonitions

about inhalation of fumes, or swallowing the paint itself. In fact,

only 33 (24%) of the 139 paints which tested below one tenth of 1% had

labels expressly claiming safety for use because of the absence of lead.

Eight of the 9 cans that tested over 4% lead (well above the legal

limitation) had warning labels.

Of the 28 LB paints in the sample, 16 (57%) were improperly labeled;

11 (39%) had no label information or lead warning; 3 (11%) had lead

compounds listed as components but did not identify them as lead compounds

(e.g., "chrome yellow") and had no other warning; 2 (7%) had labels

identifying them as child safe. One of these, in fact, bore a label

specifying that the paint in question was "particularly suitable for

painting surfaces accessible to small children". None of these 16 cans,

moreover, was specified as being primarily for exterior use.

The inappropriately labeled cans of paint were fairly well distributed

among the 5 stores (3, 4, 2, 5, 2) and among 9 of the 36 manufacturers,

covering, as it happens, a broad spectrum of types: 2 small independent

general paint manufacturers, 3 moderately large local ones, 2 national

brands* and two manufacturers of specialty paints, one local and one

nationally distributed.

* It should be noted, however, that national corporations may produce

paints in regional plants.

13
3.3. Replicates

Cans of paint with identical labeling (that is, vrith identical

parameter values other than store of purchase and tested lead content)

are called replicates. Replicated items in a sample can furnish information about the accuracy of the measurements, the reliability of the data

recording, and variability in manufacture. Thirty-nine apparent sets of

replicates (29 pairs, 9 triples and 1 sextuple) were identified in the

computer processing of the test results. Table 4 lists the replicates.

Because many of these sets displayed excessive within-set lead variation, they were subjected to further scrutiny: the card listings were rechecked against the can labels, the data recorded on the field forms

and the calculations auxiliary to the measurements. (No remeasurement

of lead content was attempted, however.) As a result, the number of replicates decreased to 24: 20 pairs, 1 triple and 1 sextuple. The false

replicates in most cases resulted from color differences between paints

nominally isochromatic (e.g., "light grey" and "dark grey", "dawn pink"

and "rose pink", etc.). Two of the false replicates were identical in

color but were from different priced brands from the same manufacturer.

For some of the sets, variations in manufacturing process may have

been responsible for actual differences in lead concentration. The

field survey forms used by the sampling team contained the manufacturer's

lot number for each can when available. This information was omitted

from the computer tabulation cards because, initially, the point of

view adopted in the survey was that of the ordinary retail consumer.

14
Table 4

Replicates

Can: Store & Set # Line Numbers / Lead

1 1-31, 35 0 0

2 1-22, 34 .002 .002

3 2-19, 40 .002 .003

4 3-^9, 48 .002 .003

5 5-07, 10 0 .006

6 2-18, 43 .004 .005

7 4-04, 15 .007 .008

8 4-51, 40 .005 .010

9 5-01, 35 .008 .009

10 5-50, 06 .006 .013

11 5-49

,

09 . 009 .015

12 2-31, 47 .012 . 014

13 4-28, 02 .01 .06

14 4-19, 45, 47 .05 .05

15 5-22, 34, 47, 17, .14 .15

43, 53 .24 .25

16 4-09, 42, 43 .18 .21

17 4-31, 11, 44 .20 .21

1£ 4-18, 23 .25 .25

1? 2-24, 58 .29 .30

/ u

/. TO H-Jiy , JO A C

. H /

21 5-13, 28 .75 .86

22 1-18, 23 .83 .85

23 5-18, 29 1.71 2.30

24 5-04, 16 4.74 7.65

Remarks

One lot number missing

Different lots

^ame lot number as set 10 but

different can size

Different lots

One lot number missing

No lot numbers

First 4, from a sample lot, last

2 from another

Lot number m.issing on first can

15
who would normally buy paint by type, color, use, can size and possibly

brand name, but would not be concerned with manufacturing batch numbers.

In sets 4, 8 and 15 the discrepancies primarily occur among cans

with differing lot numbers , which points to variations in manufacture.

In set 15, for instance, the first four samples of the sextuple came

from one lot, the remaining pair from a second.

In set 11, the chemist who made the measurements noted that the two cans

of paint in question had different proportions of solids as well as differing

lead content, which may indicate non-uniformity in mixing during manufacture.

Five sets with otherwise unexplained discrepant pairs (5, 10, 21,

23, 24) all came from store number 5, the small paint factory outlet

store. Two of them (23, 24) were pairs of paints with high lead content

and therefore subject to the accuracy limitations of the test procedure.

The suspicion that the variation in the others was a result of contamination caused by frequent batch changes in receptacles during manufacture,

mixing or packaging is strengthened by the discovery that sets 5 and 10

came from the same manufacturer's lot although the cans in the two sets

were of different sizes.

It is illuminating to examine the sample results in tandem with

the findings in a series of tests by X-ray fluorescence of the surfaces

in a randomly selected set of 115 dwelling units (DU) in Washington,

D.C. [3]. The measurements in question were of the numner of grams lead

per centimeter of surface, i.e., lead weight per unit area. The

correspondence between such measurements and lead percentage contents

16
by weight, of liquid paints, depends on the number of coats, the thickness per coat and other factors. The comparison must perforce be very

crude and subject to possibly erroneous concidences. Examining a range

of values, however, we find some very striking similarities between the

•two sets of data, in terms of the relative lead content of, for example,

flat and gloss paints. The effect is particularly sharp for "recent"

housing, i.e., housing constructed after 1959, a period for which

current paint inventories have some relevance. In the tables below, 5A

is based on the housing sample summaries, 5B is from the liquid paint

analysis

Tables 5A, 5B

LEAD LEVELS

In Housing Built After 1959

I XRF Measurements

mg/cm

% of

Walls

% of

Trim

%

Lead

% of

Cans

Wall

Paint

% of

Cans

Trim

Paint

>6 16 24 ^ .06 6 62

>8 8 17 >_ .5 2 15

>10 1 6 >_ 1 0 7

>15 0 1 1 10 0 2

In Liquid Paints

The juxtaposition is illustrative and no direct line by line correspondence

should be inferred.

17
4. Deductions from the Pre-Test Sample

In the context of statistical inference, the word "confidence" has

a narrow technical definition. A statement that at the .95 confidence

level "8 to 13% of the cans of paint in the United States national retail inventory contain lead based paint" means that the odds are 19 to 1

that the phrase in quotation marks is correct. A formal estimate of

this type can be made, assuming appropriately precise definitions of

"retail inventory" and "cans of paint", by analyzing an adequately sized

random sample, or a somewhat larger multistage random, sam.ple (or obviously,

by conducting a complete census) . The 247 can pre-test was not a random,

sample, having been conducted as the first step in a two or three part

process intended to uncover and solve sampling and definitional problem.s

so as to determine the sample size necessary in a three stage random

sample survey aimed at making the desired national estimates.*

Of the many departures from randomness in the pre-test, the most

critical are:

a. The stores were not selected randomly.

b. The "target population" (i.e., definition of x^hich kinds of

coatings were to be counted) was varied from store to store.

c. The method of selecting custom mixed paints was experim.entally

varied from, store to store.

d. Seasonal effects were not considered in the selection, all

paints having been obtained from. summ.er inventory.

Note that the individual 50 can store sam.ples vera substantially

random, samples.

18
Since the sampling was not random, quantitative estimates cannot be

made of the LB percentage nationally, regionally or even locally within

the 250 square mile area around Chicago, 111., from which the pre-test

paints were selected.

On the other hand, non-statistical deductions can be made on the

basis of the pre-test results and general knowledge of paint use and

manufacturing restrictions, keeping sources of uncertainty firmly in

mind

Note first that the five stores in the pre-test ranged in size from

very small to very large, but that each of their inventories included

virtually every category of paint can catalogued in the range of listed

coatings of interest. It is judged that the five store types represent

the outlets that dispense a very large portion of the paint sold at

retail in the United States. Moreover, as noted above except for some

definitional variations, the cans were substantially selected randomly

(i.e., without bias*) in the individual stores.

It is deduced that 1) there was a non-negligible amount of LB in the

United States retail inventory of the most commonly used types of paint

unless there are unsuspected strong regional differences; 2) specialty

coatings (such as rust preventives, moisture resistant paints, decorative

gloss paints with exotic tints, etc.) accounted for the bulk of the LB

paint; and 3) premixed latex paints in current inventories are substantially lead free.

* The criticality mentioned on the previous page is with respect to

precise statistical estimation.

19
For whatever reason, violations of statutory lead warning label requirements are probably widespread. This suspicion arises from the fact

that each of the five stores had at least two mislabeled cans and that

violations were found in nationally distributed brands as well as paints

produced by local independents.

Upon additiona consideration, we believe that both of the possibilities outlined in the discussion of the replicates in the sample are in

fact significant: (1) Can-to-can variations in lead content actually

occur in nominally uniform lots, particularly when manufacturing batch

sizes are small, and (2) there is a need for refinement of procedures for

laboratory measurement of the lead content of paints which have wide

variations in the fractions of nonvolatile components. This process should

probably be made the subject of independent statistical experiments.

The conclusions outlined above can be validated by well designed

limited sample surveys.

Statements below are based on informal investigation of the utility

of accurate estimates of the amount of lead in United States inventories

of (liquid) paint, a subject question that was prompted partially by

speculation during the pre-test analysis and partially by consideration

of the general discussion of sampling, the descriptions of the population

under study and the cost and time estimates in [2].

Three possible applications can be identified for the extention of the

pre-test to a full sample survey capable of determining the national LB

ratio to within 5%. According to analysis in [2] the cost of a survey

would be about $500,000 (in 1971 dollars).

20
In each instance we were unable to formulate a decision process hy

which a level of intervention would he related to the actual lead level

(as long as it exceeds zero) and in each instance we concluded that the

expected survey cost would not be justified.

The three possible applications are as follows:

a. Determine quantitatively the extent to which LB occurs with improper

labels in order to permit accurate assessment of the costs for

inspection and enforcement. The survey plan itself would, moreover, attack in advance many of the problems of inspection

strategy and test methodologies. On the other hand, it is unlikely that potential savings in inspection and enforcement costs

resulting from accurate national estimates of violation rates,

however defined, would offset the survey costs associated with

the estimation process. At the very least, this matter should

receive more than cursory cost-effectiveness analysis before a

major survey is undertaken.

b. Estimate somewhat less quantitatively than in a. above the national

LB ratio in order to determine the appropriate level of an educational campaign to reduce hazard by informing the public of the

danger of using LB paint. Here the obvious difficulty is to

relate the degree of hazard to the amount (number of cans)

of LB paint on retail shelves. As in the previous instance,

cost-effectiveness considerations appear, on the surface, to

militate against a major survey.

21
Use Inventory Information to supplement and check the operation

and results of lead paint in housing surveys. Here the ohvious

difficulty is translational. There is no simple correspondence

between lead content of liquid paints and the amount of lead

on painted surfaces. In addition, the likelihood that a relationship between any property of paint inventories and housing

built before 1965, say, is very small.

22
5. References

Berger, Harvey W. , "Final Report, Phase I Lead Paint Survey Sampling

Plan and Preliminary Screening", NBS Report 10958, November 1972.

Bauer, Bertrand N. and Machol, Robert E. , "Final Report on the

Pre-Tested Sampling Plan for a National Paint Inventory Study",

Machol Systems, Inc., Evanston, Illinois 60202, May 30, 1972.

Ayers, Tyrone, Hall, William, and Shipp, Walter E. , A Report of a Pre-Survey for the Magnitude and Extent of the Lead Based Paint

Hazard in Housing, To be published as an NBS Report.

23
Appendix

Selected Computer Tabulations

The appendix comprises reproductions of the output of about 1/4 of

the computer runs of statistical tabulation programs used in the pretest. ,

This material is presented primarily as a matter of record, constituting as such, the only published presentation of these data, but there

is an ulterior purpose in that it is possible that examination of these

data may disclose hitherto undetected relationships worth investigating

further.

24
Table Al

Classification Listing for the Computer Tabulations

Category

(Factor)

(In (In

Table Table

A2) A4)

1 2

# of

Class (Level) Cans

Type or Paint Base

1. Alkyd-Interior 80 32

2. Alkyd-Exterior 10 4

3. Latex-Interior 63 26

4. Latex-Exterior 17 7

5. Oil-Interior 3 1

6. Oil-Exterior 6 2

7. Stain 9 4

8. Sealer (not varnish sealers)

,

Shellac

7 3

9. Varnish 14 6

10. Spray (non-latex) 29 12

11. Tinting color (non-latex) 2 1

12. Epoxy, solvent system 3 1

13. Rubberbase 3 1

14. Bitximinous 1 0

Primary Recommended Use

1. Walls 54 22

2. Floors 24 10

3. Metal 13 5

4. Wood 44 18

25
5. Trim 45 18

6. Concrete 5 2

7. Any Surface 55 22

8. Not Designated 7 3

Color

1. Beige 13 5

2. Black 13 5

3. Blue 15 6

4. Brown 34 14

5. Clear ' 8 3

6. Gray 15 6

7. Green 25 10

8. Metallic ' 7 3

9. Orange 6 2

10. Pink 13 5

11. Purple ' 4 2

12. Red 5 2

13. White 60 24

14. Yellow 29 12

Mix

1. Custom Mixed or Tinting Base 13 5

2. Premixed 232 94

3. Tinting Color 2 1

26
6 Finish

1. Flat 89 32

2. Gloss 97 39

3. Semigloss 61 25

Size

1. 2 gallon 4 2

2. 1 gallon 121 49

3. Quart 49 20

4. Pint 23 9

5. 1/2 pint 21 9

6. Spray (usually 3/A pint or 1 pint) 29 12

8 Label Warning

1. No Comment about lead 190 77

2. No warning label for lead but 3 1

contents lists lead compounds (the

word "lead" does not appear)

3. "No Lead-Safe for Use" or equivalent 39 16

4. Contains "Lead - Beware" Warning 12 5

5. "Some Colors in this Line Contain 3 1

Lead", but label does not say if

this is one of the colors

9 Recommended Application (aside from surface type)

1. Interior - only 105 43

2. Exterior - only 34 14

3. Interior - Exterior 67 27

4. Not Specified 41 17

27
9 1 Store

1 49

2 50

3 50

4 50

5 48

10 10 Manufacturer -

36 Identified 247

Note: All percentages are rounded to nearest whole number. They may

not, therefore, total exactly 100%.

28
6 Finish

1. Flat 89 32

2. Gloss 97

3. Semigloss 61 25

Size

1. 2 gallon 4 2

2. 1 gallon 121 49

3 . Quart 49 20

4. Pint 23 9

5. 1/2 pint 21 9

6. Spray (usually 3/4 pint or 1 pint) 29 12

8 Label Warning

1. No Coiranent about lead 190 77

2. No warning label for lead but 3 1

contents lists lead compounds (the

word "lead" does not appear)

3. "No Lead-Safe for Use" or equivalent 39 16

4. Contains "Lead - Beware" Warning 12 5

5. "Some Colors in this Line Contain 3 1

Lead", but label does not say if

this is one of the colors

9 Recommended Application (aside from surface type)

1. Interior - only 105 43

2 . Exterior - only 34 14

3. Interior - Exterior 67 27

4. Not Specified 41 17

27
9 1 Store

1 49

2 50

3 50

4 50

5 48

10 10 Manufacturer

36 Identified 247

Note: All percentages are rounded to nearest whole number. They may

not, therefore, total exactly 100%.

28
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31
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33
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1/1
How to Read the Tabulations (See table A2)

Let us use the first block (Alkyd-Interior) of the first category

(Type or Base) on the first page of the computer printout sheets entitled

Onmitab Lead Distribution by Tabulated Categories for interpretation.

.06 17. 21.25 17. 21. 25

.10 5. 6.25 22. 27.50

.50 36. 45.00 58. 72.50

1.00 7. 8.75 65. 81.25

10.00 15. 18.75 80. 100.00

100.00 0. .00 80. 100.00

The number in line 6, column 4 is the number of cans in the group.

There are 80 cans of "Alkyd-Interior" paint in the sample. (The sum of

the numbers in line 6 , column 4 in all the blocks in a category is thus

247, the size of the total sample.)

The numbers in columns 2 and 4 are can counts . The numbers in

columns 3 and 5 are corresponding percentages of the cans in the group.

The numbers in column 1 are the maximum percentages of lead in the

contents of the cans specified in columns 2 and 4 of the given line.

The numbers in columns 2 and 3 are interval values. Those in

columns 4 and 5 are cumulative.

Reading line 3, for instance:

58 in (column 4) shows 58 cans out of the total of 80 AlkydInterior paints contain no more than 1/2% lead (column 1).

This is 72 1/2% (column 5) of the 80 paints in the group.

36 (column 2) of the cans contain more than 1/10% but

no more then 1/2% lead (column 1) . This is 45% (Column 3)

of the 80 paints in the group.

35
Notes on the Division into Categories (See tables A2 and A3)

Categories 1 and 8 :

The division under oil, latex and alkyd into "exterior" and

"interior" can be misleading. When the data cards were prepared using

can label information, all paints specified as having any possible interior application were designated in category 1 as interior paints because they were considered to constitute members of "hazard" classes by

their availability for use on child accessible surfaces. Subsequently,

category 8 was defined to tabulate principal recommended application.

Although the breakdown according to 1 was used for some listings, we

think now that it should be discarded, where appropriate, in favor of the

distinction in category 8.

Categories 2 and 5 :

Most "wall" paint was flat. Most trim, wood, metal, and floor

paint was gloss.

Category 3 :

The 14 listed colors are a distillation from almost 70 manufacturers'

color designations (some quite exotic)

Category 4 ;

The stores are listed in the order surveyed; the treatment of

custom mixing was varied from store to store during the pre-test

development of survey procedures.

36
In store 1, there was no custom mixing but where tinting bases

entered the sample they were identified as such.

In stores 2 and 3, tinting bases selected were used to custom mix

the tinting color chosen by (different) random selection schemes.

There was no custom mixing available in store //A.

Store 5 "custom mixes" by modifying premixed paints with tints to

meet customer specifications. Since the predetermined method of introducing custom mixed paints into the sample was chance selection of tinting bases, no custom mixed paint was taken from this store. A change

in the selection method should be made to accomodate this type of store

if it is not unique or "near unique".

Category 7 ;

Classes 1 and 2 are really identical except to professional chemists

who can recognize the presence of lead in the compounds listed.

In any subsequent tests or compilations the cans listed under

class 2 would (or will) be assigned to class 1 ("no warning") , and class

2 will be reserved for labels which identify lead compounds whose names

include the word "lead".

Category 9 :

The inventory sizes for "included coatings" (see page 7 ) were as

follows

4,682 cans 31,781 cans 23,427 cans

965 cans 2054 cans

Store 1 -

2 -

3 -

4 -

5 -

37
Category 10 :

The tabulation was omitted from the initial computer runs and made

by hand. It is, therefore, not as detailed as the other tabulations.

We have omitted the identities of the manufacturers in this report.

Reading ;

Lead Levels

In each class there is listed:

The number and % of cans containing

1) 0 to 0.06% lead by weight of solids

2) more than 0.06 to 0.1%, etc.

3) more than 0.1% to 0.5%

4) more than 0.5% to 1.0%

5) more than 1.0% to 10.0%

6) more than 10%

as well as the analogous cumulative intervals:

1) up to .06% lead by weight of solids

2) 1 and 2 above

3) 1, 2 and 3 above, etc.

These are labeled with the high values of the intervals. Thus, e.g.,

"1.0%" means up to 1% or alternatively 1/2% to 1%. "100%" means above

10%.

In addition to the tabulations of the sample for the 10 categories,

there are store by store tabulations for the first 8 categories.

38
Each nomograph plots lead % level against some other characteristic,

every spike displaying lead levels for paints with a given index value

of the characteristic. An additional paint characteristic is represented

in each of these plots by using a different print symbol for different

index values of the characteristic. The symbols 1-9, 0, A-Z are used

in that order. Thus, e.g. the symbol for "white" under color will be

C because white is color //13; and manufacturer //24 will be N, N being

the 24th symbol in the list.

The plots do not have a distinct representation for every can.

When two or more paints in a spike have lead % levels whose

difference is equal to or smaller than the smallest interval on the

vertical axis, the symbol corresponding to the last one encountered in

the input listing of the paints, is displayed. Numbers appearing in

parentheses above spike in some of the nomograms indicate the actual

number of paints in the spike.

As an example, let us examine the second nomogram following, which

plots percent lead against paint type using "store" as plotting

character.

The vertical axis is marked from 0 to 10.74 (the smallest and

largest recorded lead percentages) while the horizontal axis runs from

1 to 14 (the number of types). The total number of cans (observations)

is listed in the lower right hand corner under the graph frame.

Column 1 represents "level" 1 (Interior-Alkyd) for the factor " TYPE ".

39
The graph shows 1 can of paint at about 5.6% lead and 1 can at 5.37%

in store #1 and a can at A. 03% from store #5, etc. Notice that

according to the top of the page there are altogether 80 cans of

alkyd-interior paint in the 247 can sample, but only 13 points are

plotted in the column. This means that the remaining 67 have lead

levels sufficiently close to the plotted cans that they were suppressed

by overprinting. Note also that missing values for the plot character

do not necessarily mean that the particular characteristics do not occur

in the sample. The number 3 does not appear in the plotted values in

column 1 but in fact there were cans of interior-alkyd paint in the

sample from store #3 with lead percent values of .18, .21 and 1.21.

The first two of these are suppressed by observations from store #5

(second entry from the bottom of the column) and the third by one of

the two observations from store //5 (fifth or sixth from the bottom)

.

40
Notes on Tabulations (See Table A4)

These computer printouts tabulate the number and percentage of

paints which contain lead in excess of 0.5% (the first table) and 1.0%

(the second table) considered as a "dependent variable" against the

indices of the various recorded characteristics of the paints. They

differ from the tabulations in Al in that in each block the classes

("levels") occur in the order encountered in the input data cards (the

left hand 6 columns in each block) and ordered by decreasing percent of

paints failing the lead content criterion (the right most 6 columns in

each block)

In the headings the statement, "The input interval of interest is

(.50050, 200.00), i.e., here we are referring to values over .5

(percent). The value 200.00 is a peculiarity of the computer program

and is of no consequence.

Each table is followed by a list giving a complete ordering of

all classes of all category according to percent in excess of the limit

of interest (i.e., 0.5% or 1.0%).

41
r

TABLE A 2

42
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•/ u c u r c c c c r c M IS o r-- o c 00000 IT — O O O

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45
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FORM NBS-lUA H-711 U S DEPT. COMM. L> Ulv^ A 1 lUN \Ji\ Kill UKl NVJ. ^» UOv I ACCCSsiOil BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA ^^^^^

No.

3« Recipient s Accession No.

4. rn I.I-: and suui itle

Report on a Pre-Test of a Survey Plan for Estimating

Incidence of Lead Based Paint

5. Publication Date

6. Performing Organization Code

7. AUTIIOR(S)

Lambert S. Joel and Harvey W. Berp;er

8. Performing Organization

9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20234

10. Project/Task/Work Unit No. 4608400

11. Contract/Grant No.

IAA-H-34-71

12. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address Office of Policy Development and Research

Department of Housing and Urban Development

wasmngcon, UtV^o zuhj.u

13. Type of Report & Period CoveredFinal

14. Sponsoring Agency Code

15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

16. ABSTRACT (A 200-word or less factual summary of most significant information. If document includes a significant

bibliography or literature survey, mention it here.)

Lead in paint has been indicted as a major cause of lead poisoning of children.

Federal regulations have been established to limit the amount of lead which may be

added to paints tha^ are intended for residential use. The intent of such a limitation is to curtail the incidence of present and future lead based paint poisoning of

children.

This report presents the results of a "pre-test" for a .nation-wide survey

plan that would be used to determine the availability, to the public, of paints that

may contain lead compounds in hazardous quantities. Statistical summaries of the

chemical analysis of 250 paints purchased by random selection at five retail outlets, are presented along with comments regarding the possible implications of those

results. Recommendations are made about survey action beyond the pre-test described

herein.

17. KEY WORDS (Alphabetical order, separated by semicolons)

Lead; lead paint poisoning; paints; poisoning; retail inventory; statistics; survey

18. AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

UNLIMITED.

FOR OFFICIAL DISTRIBUTION. DO NOT RELEASE

TO NTIS.

19. SECURITY CLASS

(THIS REPORT)

UNCLASSIFIED

21. NO. OF PAGES

20. SECURITY CLASS

(THIS PAGE)

UNCLASSIFIED

22. Price

USCOMM-DC 66244-P

It