NISTIR 85-3273-11

(Rev. 7/96)

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 1 997

Stephen R. Petersen

Annual Supplement to

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709

QC

100

. U56 July 1996

NO. 85-3273

11 1997

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Technology Administration

National Institutes of Standards

and Technology

Prepared for

United States Department of Energy

Federal Energy Management Program

NISTIR 85-3273-11

ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 1997

Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A;

and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New

Federal Residential Buildings, Title 10, CFR, Part 435

Stephen R. Petersen

Office of Applied Economics

July 1997

Building and Fire Research Laboratory

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899

Sponsored by:

The Federal Energy Management Program

U.S. Department of Energy

Washington, DC 20585

U.S. Department of Commerce

Michael Kantor, Secretary

Technology Administration

Mary L. Good, Under Secretary for Technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Arati Prabhakar, Director

ABSTRACT

This is the FY 1997 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle cost analyses

of energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in federal facilities. It supports the federal life- cycle costing methodology by updating the energy price projections and discount factors that are described,

explained, and illustrated in NIST Handbook 135 (HB 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the Federal Energy

Management Program.) It supports private-sector life-cycle cost analysis by updating the energy price indices

that are described, explained, and illustrated in NBS Special Publication 709 (SP 709). It also supports the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435)

by providing a table of factors for updating appliance label values.
PREFACE

This is the FY 1997 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the

Federal Energy Management Program. The annual supplement provides energy price indices and discount

factors for use with the Federal Energy Management Program's procedures for life-cycle cost analysis, as established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in Subpart A of Part 436 of Title 10 of the Code of

Federal Regulations (10 CFR Part 436, Subpart A), and amplified in NIST Handbook 135. These indices

and factors are provided as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of potential energy and water

conservation and renewable energy investments in existing and new federally owned and leased buildings.

Historically, the Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 has been prepared in September each year

for use throughout the following fiscal year. However, the energy price projections from DOE's Energy

Information Administration (EIA) that serve as the basis of much of this report are released in January and

the discount rates from Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-94 are released in February,

so that much of the data in this report is out of date after only a few months of its intended life. As a result,

DOE has now requested that NIST produce this Annual Supplement as soon as practical after the necessary

data are available. This FY 1997 edition was prepared in June 1996. In future years we expect to produce

the Annual Supplement in March. While this Annual Supplement is intended primarily for use in FY 1997,

DOE encourages its use immediately upon release. The FY 1997 edition of the NIST BLCC program and

related NIST software for LCC analysis are being released at the same time as this Annual Supplement,

for use over the same time period. These software products are discussed on the next page.

At the request of a number of users, DOS text files of the tables in this Annual Supplement are available

from NIST. For information on obtaining these files, contact the author by e-mail at spetersen@nist.gov.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures as set forth in 10 CFR, Part 436, Subpart A, are to be

followed by all federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, in evaluating the cost effectiveness of

potential energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in federally owned and leased

buildings.

As called for by legislation, the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided technical

assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life-cycle costing

methods and procedures. This is the second of a three-volume set which together provide the methods,

data, and computational tools for life-cycle cost analysis of federal energy projects.

Included in the three-volume set for federal life-cycle cost analysis are the following:

(1) Life-Cycle Costing Manualfor the Federal Energy Management Program, National Institute of

Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (1995).

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysis as they

are applied to federal decisions, especially those subject to DOE 10 CFR 436 rules related to the economic

analysis of energy and water conservation projects and renewable resource projects. It describes the required procedures and assumptions, defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic

performance measures, gives examples of federal decision problems and their solutions, explains how to use the energy price indices and discount factors which are updated annually in the supplement, and

provides worksheets and other computational aids and instructions for calculating the required measures. The 1995 edition of Handbook 135 is a complete revision of the 1987 edition, with updated information on the FEMP LCC requirements of 10 CFR 436.

IV
(2) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, National Institute of

Standards and Technology, NISTIR 85-3273 (updated annually).

This report, which is updated annually, provides the current DOE discount rate, projected energy price

indices, and corresponding discount factors needed to estimate the present value of future energy and non- energy project-related costs. The energy price indices were provided by the Energy Information

Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. Request the latest edition when ordering. (This is the

report that you are holding in your hands.)

(3) NIST "Building Life Cycle Cost" (BLCC) Computer Program, National Institute of Standards and

Technology, NISTIR 4481 (User's Guide dated January 1995). Use version 4.4-97 for FY 1997.

The NIST Building Life-Cycle Cost program provides comprehensive economic analysis capabilities for

the evaluation of proposed capital investments that are expected to reduce the long-term operating costs of buildings and building systems. The BLCC program is designed to run on IBM PC and compatible

microcomputers in a MS-DOS environment. The BLCC program computes the LCC for project alternative,

compares project alternatives in order to determine which has the lowest LCC, performs annual cash flow

analysis, and computes net savings, the savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and adjusted internal rate of

return (AIRR) for project alternatives over their designated study period. BLCC can be used to perform

economic analysis of capital investment projects undertaken by federal, state, and local government

agencies, as well as by the private sector. BLCC (version 4.4-97) uses the same DOE/ELA energy price

projections included in the Annual Supplement to Handbook 135. In its application to federal energy

conservation and renewable energy projects, BLCC is consistent with NIST Handbook 135 (see #1 above).

In its application to non-energy projects, BLCC is consistent with OMB Circular A-94. In its application

to private-sector and non-federal public-sector projects, BLCC is consistent with ASTM standards for

building economics.

Included on the BLCC disk is the Quick Input program, a simplified version of BLCC which can be used

to set up an analysis of multiple project alternatives. Also included is the DISCOUNT program (version

3.6-97), which can calculate present value, future value, and annual value factors for any discount rate and

study period. DISCOUNT can access the DOE energy price projections included on the BLCC disk to compute the UPV* factors needed for federal LCC analyses of energy projects, consistent with the factors

included in this report. Two additional programs, ERATES (for use with complex electricity rate schedules) and EMISS (for generating local air pollution emission factors in BLCC analyses) are also

available with BLCC.

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available to the

private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for federal use. In response to this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship of the U.S. Department

of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector entitled Comprehensive Guide

for Least-Cost Energy Decisions, NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The private sector guide is supported by

the data provided here, as well as by the BLCC computer program. The BLCC program supersedes the

NBSLCC program which is documented in SP 709. BLCC provides LCC computational support for private

sector projects as well as for federal projects.

To order any of these publications and software products contact:

v
Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Clearing House

1 -800-DOE-EREC

fax: (703) 893-0400

BLCC and related LCC software may also be purchased from the following vendors:

FlowSoft

5 Oak Forest Court

Saint Charles, MO 63303

(314) 441-1022

Energy Information Services

P.O. Box 381

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819-0381

(802) 748-5148

BLCC and related LCC software can also be downloaded via Internet from the FEMP home page

at http://www.eren.doe.gov/femp.

Workshops on the life-cycle costing method and energy analysis are conducted at locations around the

country each year. The workshops include training and software for both BLCC and an energy analysis

computer program called "A Simplified Energy Analysis Method" (ASEAM). A schedule of workshops

can be obtained from DOE/FEMP at (202) 586-8017, fax (202) 586-3000.

Three video training films in a series entitled "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings" have been

prepared by NIST. These films include "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing", "Uncertainty and Risk," and

"Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods." The video films and companion workbooks can be ordered

from Video Transfer, Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD 20852, Telephone (301) 881-0270,

fax (301)770-9131.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained from the Federal Energy

Management Program Staff, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy,

U.S. Department of Energy. Please direct communication to: FEMP, CE 10. 1, U.S. Department of Energy,

1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585.

VI
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to thank Mr. Theodore Collins of the Federal Energy Management Program of the U.S.

Department of Energy (DOE) for his continued support and direction of this work. Appreciation is extended to Mr. Art Andersen, Director of the Energy Demand and Integration Division, and Susan Shaw,

Chief, and Paul Condis of the National Energy Modeling System Branch, DOE Energy Information

Administration, for providing the energy price projections upon which this report is based, and to Ms. Hilla

Katki and Mrs. Laurene Linsenmayer for their assistance in preparing this report for publication.
CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT iii

PREFACE iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii

LIST OF TABLES ix

ABBREVIATIONS xii

INTRODUCTION 1

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS 3

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs 3

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs 11 B.l. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 14

B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors 20

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real) 26

D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values 43

PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS 44

viii
LIST OF TABLES

Page

A-l.

A-2.

A-3a

A-3b

A-3c

Ba-1.

Ba-2.

Ba-3.

Ba-4.

Ba-5.

Bb-1.

SPV factors for finding the present value of future single costs (non-fuel) 6

UPV factors for finding the present value of future annually recurring uniform costs (nonfuel) 7

UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, DOE discount rate (3.4%) 8

UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB short-term discount rate (2.8%) 9

UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB long-term discount rate (4.9%) 10

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (DOE). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts,

New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) .... 15

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (DOE). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,

Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

16

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (DOE). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware,

District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North

Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 17

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (DOE). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 18

FEMP UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.4% (DOE). United States average 19

OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 2.8% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New

York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 21

IX
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Bb-2. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 2.8% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 22

Bb-3. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel

type. Discount Rate = 2.8% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 23

Bb-4. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 2.8% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 24

Bb-5. OMB UPV* discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type. Discount Rate = 2.8% (years 1-10) and 4.9% (years 1 1-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

United States average 25

Ca-1. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New

York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 28

Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 30

Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 32

Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 34

Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States average 36

Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New

Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) 38

x
LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) 39

Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of

Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina,

Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 40

Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii,

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) 41

Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by end-use

sector and fuel type. United States average 42

D. Factors for updating appliance label values from 1987 to 1996 dollars 43

S-l. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,

Vermont) 46

S-2. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,

Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota,

Wisconsin) 48

S-3. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware,

District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North

Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) 50

S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) 52

S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average 54

xi
ABBREVIATIONS

A - Annual amount

A0

- Annual amount at base-date prices

AE096 - Annual Energy Outlook 1996 (DOE-EIA publication)

ASTM - American Society for Testing and Materials

BLCC - NIST Building Life Cycle Cost computer program

COAL - Coal

d - discount rate DIST - Distillate Oil

DOE - U.S. Department of Energy

e - price escalation rate (annual rate of price change)

EIA Energy Information Administration (DOE)

ELEC - Electricity

FEMP - Federal Energy Management Program

FY - Fiscal Year

GASLN - Gasoline

LCC - Life-Cycle Cost

LPG - Liquefied petroleum gas

N - Number of discount periods (in years)

NEMS - National Energy Modeling System

NIST - National Institute of Standards and Technology

NTGAS - Natural Gas

OMB - Office of Management and Budget

RESID - Residual Oil

SPV - Single Present Value (factor)

UPV - Uniform Present Value (factor)

UPV* - Modified Uniform Present Value (factor)

XII
INTRODUCTION

This report provides tables of present-value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital

investment projects for federal facilities. It also provides energy price indices based on Department of

Energy (DOE) forecasts from 1996 to 2026. The factors and indices presented in this report are useful for

determining the present value of future project-related costs, especially those related to operational energy

costs. Discount factors included in this report are based on two different federal sources: (1) the DOE

discount rate for projects related to energy conservation, renewable energy resources, and water

conservation; and (2) Office of Management and Budget (OMB) discount rates from Circular A-94 for use

with most other capital investment projects in federal facilities.

The DOE discount rate for 1996 is 3.4% real (i.e., net of general price inflation) or 6.6% nominal

(including inflation). The DOE discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over the

1 2 months prior to the preparation of this report. The nominal, or market rate, is converted to a real rate using the projected rate of general price inflation (3.1%) from the Economic Report of the President's

Council of Economic Advisors, to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach that is used in most federal life-cycle cost (LCC) analyses. Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are required by 10 CFR 436 to use the DOE discount rate when conducting LCC analyses related to energy

conservation, renewable energy resources, and water conservation projects for federal facilities. OMB Circular A-94 on guidelines and discount rates for benefit-cost analysis of federal programs was

extensively revised in October 1992. There is no longer a single OMB discount rate as in the past. OMB

has specified two basic types of discount rates: (1) a discount rate for cost-effectiveness, lease-purchase,

and related analyses; and (2) a discount rate for public investment and regulatory analyses. Only discount

rates for the first type of analyses are included in this Annual Supplement, since the primary purpose of this report is to support cost-effectiveness studies related to the design and operation of federal facilities. OMB discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on

Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years. Currently (as of January 1995) five

maturities have been specifically identified by OMB, and are shown here with the corresponding real

interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to OMB Circular A-94:

Maturity: 3-vear 5-vear 7-vear 10-vear 30-vear

Rate: 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0%

OMB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from these maturities

and rates, based on the study period used in the analysis. Due to limitations on the size of this Annual

Supplement, discount factors for only two of these maturities are presented: factors for short-term analyses

(up to 10 years) based on the 7-year real rate (2.8%), and factors for long-term analyses (longer than 10

years) based on the 30-year real rate (3.0%). As a result, these discount factors are for approximation

purposes only. Updated discount rates from OMB will most likely be made available in February 1996, at which time the tables in this report based on the OMB discount rates will be out of date. It is suggested that the NIST Building Life Cycle Cost (BLCC) or DISCOUNT programs be used to compute the present value

factors for the discount rate corresponding to the length of the study period when approximate values are not satisfactory for the project analysis or new OMB discount rates become available. (See preface for details on obtaining these programs.)
The energy price indices and corresponding present value factors published in this report are computed

from energy price forecasts provided to NIST by the Department of Energy's Energy Information

Administration (EIA). The EIA energy price forecast used in this report was the most recent available at the time that this report was prepared (June 1996). A description of the methodology used by EIA to project energy prices through 2026 is included in section B of this report. DOE has not projected escalation

rates for water prices to be used in the LCC analysis of water conservation projects. Water escalation rates should be obtained from the local water utility when possible.

Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are encouraged to seek energy price projections from

their local utility to use in place of the DOE/EIA regional projections, especially when evaluating alternative

fuel types. In such cases the NIST BLCC or DISCOUNT programs can be used to calculate appropriate

"modified uniform present value" (UPV*) factors for use in the LCC analysis of federal energy

conservation or renewable resource projects. Otherwise, 10 CFR 436 requires the use of the DOE energy

price forecasts when conducting LCC analyses of such projects. The UPV* factors for energy costs presented in this report have been precalculated with the DOE forecast data. Thus the use of these UPV*

factors automatically ensures that the DOE forecast data have been included in the analysis.

All of the tables of discount factors contained in this report are based on real discount rates and are therefore intended for use only with economic analyses conducted in constant dollars (in which the

purchasing power of the dollar is held constant). The energy price escalation rates and corresponding

energy price indices contained in this report are also expressed in real terms. If nominal discount rates and

current dollar costs (which both include inflation) are used in the LCC analyses of federal projects, use the

BLCC computer program in the "general analysis" mode.

This report uses the term "present value" instead of "present worth" for the discount factors presented. The

meaning of these two terms is considered to be identical for purposes of economic analysis. This change

in terminology was made to be consistent with the terms used in the American Society for Testing and

Materials (ASTM) compilation of standards on building economics (ASTM Standards on Building

Economics, Third Edition, ASTM, Philadelphia, PA, 1994.)

2
PARTI: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST

ANALYSIS

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs

Table A-l presents the single present value (SPV) factors for finding the present value of future non-fuel,

non-annually recurring costs, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values. The formula for

finding the present value (P) of a future cost occurring in year t (C,) is the following:

P = Cx = C, x SPV, , (1 + d)‘

where d

t

discount rate, and

number of time periods (years) between the present time and the time the cost is incurred.

Table A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV) factors for finding the present value of future non-fuel

costs recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the present value (P)

of an annually recurring uniform cost (A) is the following:

P = A x

(1 + df - 1

d( 1 + d) N

= A x UPVN ,

where d

N

= discount rate, and = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.

Tables A-3(a.b,c) present modified uniform present value (UPV*) factors for finding the present value of

annually recurring non-fuel costs, such as water costs, which are expected to change from year to year at a constant rate of change (or escalation rate) over the study period. The escalation rate can be positive or

negative. The formula for finding the present value (P) of an annually recurring cost at base-date prices

(A0) changing at escalation rate e is the following:

P = A0 x

( i \

1 + e d - e

1 -

1 + e

1 + d

,

\ n

= A0 x UPV*N

orP = A0 x N = A0 x UPV' N

(d = e).

(d not= e)

where Aq

d

eN

= annually recurring cost at base-date prices, = discount rate, = escalation rate, and = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.

Note: if the discount rate is expressed in real terms, i.e., net of general inflation, then the escalation rate must also be expressed in real terms. If the discount rate is expressed in nominal terms, i.e., including

general inflation, then the escalation rate must also be expressed in nominal terms.

3
In tables A-l, A-2, and A-3(a,b,c) SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors are provided for both the DOE and the

OMB Circular A-94 real discount rates current as of the date of this publication. The FEMP SPV, UPV,

and UPV* factors were computed using the DOE discount rate. The FEMP factors are for finding the present value of future costs associated with federal energy and water conservation projects and renewable

energy projects. The OMB SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors were computed using the OMB discount rate. The OMB factors are for finding the present value of future costs associated with most other federal

projects (except those specifically exempted from OMB Circular A-94). The DOE and OMB discount rates used in computing these tables are real rates, exclusive of general price inflation. Thus the resulting

discount factors are intended for use with future costs that are stated in constant dollars.

Examples of How to Use the Factors:

SPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year for an energy efficient heating system, go to Table A-l, find the 3.4% SPV factor for year 8 (0.765), and

multiply the factor by the replacement cost as of the base date.

SPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor covering

(non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 2.8% SPV factor for year 5 (0.871), and multiply the factor

by the repair cost as of the base date.

SPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-l, find the 3.0% SPV factor for year 15 (0.642), and multiply

the factor by the repair cost as of the base date.

UPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a renewable

energy system over 20 years, go to Table A-2, find the 3.4% UPV factor for 20 years (14.34), and multiply

the factor by the annual maintenance cost as of the base date.

UPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over

10 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table A-2, find the 2.8% UPV

factor for 10 years (8.62), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost as of the base date.

UPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), got to Table A-2, find the 3.0% UPV

factor for 25 years (17.41), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost as of the base date.

UPV* (all): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of water usage which are expected

to increase at 2% faster than the rate of general inflation over 25 years, find the UPV* factor from table A-3

(a,b, or c as appropriate) that corresponds to 2% escalation and a 25 year study period. From table A-3a

(3.4% DOE discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 21 .04. Multiply this factor by the annual water

cost as computed at base year prices to determine the present value of these water costs over the entire 25

years.

NOTE: UPV factors are generally applied to costs which recur annually in substantially the same amount.

Examples of such costs are routine operating and maintenance costs. UPV* factors are generally applied

to costs which recur annually but change from year to year at a constant escalation rate. Examples of such

costs are water usage costs when they increase from year to year. These costs usually occur every year over

the service period of the building life. If there is a planning/design/ construction period before the service

4
life begins, during which these annual costs are not incurred, the appropriate UPV (or LTV*) factor for the sen ice period is the difference between the LTV (or LTV*) factor for the entire study period and the LTV

(or LTV*) factor for the planning/design/ construction period. For example, if the

planning design'construction period is 3 years and the sendee period is 25 years, for a total study period

of 2s years, the corresponding LTV factor (from Table A-2, DOE 3.4T discount rate) is 17.88 - 2.81 =

15 . 07.

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NTST Handbook 135.

5
Table A-l. SPV factors for finding the present value of

future single costs (non-fuel)

Single Present Value (SPV) Factors

Number of

years from

base date

DOE

Discount rate

3.4%

OMB Discount Rates3 Short termb Long Term*

2.8% 3.0%

0.25 0.992 0 . 993 0.993

0 . 50 0.983 0 .986 0.985

0.75 0.975 0.980 0.978

1 0.967 0 . 973 0.971

2 0.935 0.946 0.943

3 0.905 0.920 0 . 915

4 0.875 0 . 895 0 .888

5 0.846 0 . 871 0 .863

6 0.818 0.847 0 . 837

7 0.791 0 . 824 0.813

8 0.765 0.802 0.789

9 0.740 0.780 0.766

10 0.716 0.759 0.744

11 0.692 0.722

12 0.670 0.701

13 0.647 0 . 681

14 0.626 0.661

15 0.606 0 . 642

16 0.586 0.623

17 0.566 0.605

18 0.548 0.587

19 0.530 0.570

20 0.512 0.554

21 0.496 0.538

22 0.479 0 . 522

23 0.463 0.507

24 0.448 0.492

25 0.433 0.478

26 0.419 0.464

27 0.405 0.450

28 0.392 0.437

29 0.379 0.424

30 0.367 0.412

OMB discount rates as of February 1996. OMB rates are expected to be revised in February 1997. Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period. Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.

6
Table A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of

annually recurring uniform costs (non-fuel)

Uniform Present Value (UPV) Factors

Number of

years from

base date

DOE

Discount rate

3.4%

OMB Discount Rates

Short termb Long Ten

2.8% 3.0%

1 0.97 0.97 0.97

2 1.90 1.92 1.91

3 2 . 81 2 . 84 2 . 83

4 3.68 3.73 3.72

5 4.53 4.61 4 .58

6 5.35 5.45 5.42

7 6.14 6.28 6.23

8 6.90 7.08 7.02

9 7.64 7.86 7.79

10 8.36 8.62 8.53

11 9 .05 9.25

12 9.72 9.95

13 10.37 10.63

14 10.99 11.30

15 11 . 60 11.94

16 12.19 12.56

17 12.75 13.17

18 13.30 13.75

19 13.83 14.32

20 14.34 14 . 88

21 14.84 15.42

22 15.32 15.94

23 15.78 16.44

24 16.23 16 . 94

25 16.66 17.41

26 17.08 17.88

27 17.49 18.33

28 17 .88 18.76

29 18.26 19 . 19

30 18.62 19.60

* OMB discount rates as of February 1996. OMB rates are expected to be revised in February 1997.

h Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period.

c Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.

7
Table

A-3a.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

costs

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate,

DOE

discount

rate.

1

1

1

1

1

1 CN m O'* VD CO LD 00 ro O'* 00 00 o o 00 CT\ ro a\ r- O rH O CN LD rH O

1 1 5% O o o rH CN ro LD r- 00 o CN LD r- o CN LD 00 CN LD cn CO 00 CN [> CN CN CO

1 1 rH CN ro IT) X) r- 00 cn o CN ro LD o 00 a\ o CN ro VD CT» O CN ro ID VD 00

1

1

1

1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN ro ro ro ro ro ro

1

1

1

1 o o O O O O o O o O O o O O O O O o O O o O O O o o o o o o

1 1 dP o o o o O O o O o o o o O O o o o o o o o O O O o o o o o o

1 1 rH CN ro LD VD r~ 00 O'* o rH CN ro LD VD r- 00 <y\ o rH CN ro LD VD r- 00 cn o

1—

1

<1>

1

1

1

1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH t-H rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN ro 3

4-1

1

1

1

1 o O'* 00 VD CN O'* VD ro cn LD O LD O 00 CN LD CO rH ro LD VD r- 00 00 O'* 00 00 r-'

1 1 1 <#> o cn cn 0> Cn cn CO 00 00 r- r- r- VD VD LD ro CN CN rH O G\ 00 r- VD LD ro CN c 1 1 CO • o 1 1 rH r—

1

CN CO LD LD r- 00 cn O rH CN ro LD VD r- 00 <J\ o rH rH CN ro LD VD r- CO c 1 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH t—

1

rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN

dP — 1 1

0)

1

1

1

1 O'* vd CN r- O CN ro ro t—

1

00 LD CT» ro VD r~ 00 r~ LD CN <J\ CO rH ro ro CN O'* VD

CO 34 1 1 dP 0* cn <J\ 00 00 r* VD LD CN rH CO VD CN o CO VD CO rH CO VD ro o r rH l> 0 1 QJ 1 CN •

II 4-1 1 tn 1 o rH (N ro LD VD r- 00 O'* O O rH CN ro LD LD VD r~ 00 CO CT> O t—

1

t—

1

CN ro ro o 1 C 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN

r0 1 (d 1 t" P 1 -C 1 O'* 1 u 1 CO ro VD r- VD ro CO rH CN rH 00 r- o\ 00 LD rH LD r~ 00 00 VD ro CT* ro VD 00 O'* 00

O'* 1 1 dP cn cn 00 VD LD ro CN O 00 LD ro o rH 00 LD rH ro CT\ LD rH VD CN CN r- CN

rH •K 1 <D 1 rH • > 1 o 1 o rH CN ro ID VD o 00 CO O'* O rH rH CN ro ro LD LD VD VD 00 00 O'* O'* o o rH

>* p 1 *H 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN CN p D 1 u 1 ' ' ’ 1

1 a 11 c-~ o rH 00 ro LD o VD LD CN r- <J\ o o> ID O ro CN CO ro VD 00 O'* 00 VD CN

0) 0) 1 44 1 dP (J\ O'* 00 VD LD ro rH Cn VD ro O r- ro <T\ VD rH r- ro 00 ro 00 ro CN VD O CO CN VD

4-1 3 1 o 1 O •

(T3 I—

1

1 1 o t—

1

CN CO LD VD VD r~ 00 G\ O O rH CN CN ro ro LD LD VD VD r- 00 00

>4 (0 1 0) 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH \—

l

rH <—

1

rH *—

1

rH rH rH rH rH \—

1

rH > 1 4J 1 4J 1 (0 1 c 4-) 1 u 1 VD r- UO cn O r- o rH cn ro LD LD CN VD 00 00 VD rH ID r~ r~ VD CN 00 rH LD CN O

3 c 1 1 dp CT* CO LD rH CT\ VD CN cn LD rH r- CN r" CN r~ CN VD o 00 CN LD O* CN LD 00 rH O <1> 1 r—

1

1 rH • u (/) 1 CO 1 1 o rH CN ro LD ID VD r- 00 G\ (T\ O o rH rH CN CN ro ro ro LD LD LD VD VD w <D 1 3 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH *H *4 1 C 1 P 1

1 5

1

1 IT) in O o r- (J\ CO ro LD ro cn rH rH CO ro LD VD O VD r- VD O LD 00 rH CN CN w g 1 1 dP CT\ 00 t-~ LD CN (7\ VD ro <T\ LD o VD rH LD o 00 CN VD <J\ CN LD 00 rH VD 00 rH ro LD o >4 1 1 CN • Q 0 1 1 1 O rH CN ro LD VD VD r* 00 00 <J\ 0\ o O O rH rH rH CN CN CN ro ro ro ro

4-1 -H

1

1

1

1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH cD

1

1

1

1 CN CN co r* C" ro VD LD CN LD VD O VD LD ro CT» r- (T\ CT> 00 VD CN 00 ro

1 1 dP CT> 00 vo rH 00 o VD rH VD rH LD CT\ ro O ro VD cr\ rH VD 00 O CN VD r- O'* Tl 1 1 ro • 0) 1 1 1 O rH CN ro H1 LD VD VD r- 00 00 00 G\ cr> O O O o rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN •H

44

1

1

1

1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH

•H

TJ

1

1

1

1 co O'* cn ro CN X) CD rH CN o rlt LD ro CT\ rH CN O VD '—

1

ro LD CN O'* LD O* rO LD C^* O 1 1 dP cn ID ro O X) CN 00 ro 00 CN VD O ro r o ro ID 00 O CN VD r- O'* O CN ro LD s 1

1

1

1 1

• o rH CN ro LD LD VD VD r- [" 00 00 CO CTi O'* o> cn o O o O o O rH rH '—1 rH \—

1

1

1

1

1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH

1

1

1

1 CN VD nt LD rH rH VD r- ro VD VD CN LD VD a\ ro LD ID ro O VD o ro LD VO VD LD CN

1 1 -5%O'* r- in CN O'* LD O LD O 00 CN LD 00 rH ro VD 00 O CN ID r- 00 O* O rH CN ro

1 1 O rH CN ro ro LD ID VD VD VD r- 00 00 00 00 CTi (J\ CT> cr» o* O* o O O O O

1 1 rH rH rH rH rH

e 1 4-1 o 0) 1 o M 4-1 1 44 03 1 M T3 1 rHCNrO^TLDVOr-OOO'kO '—

1

CN ro ID VD r- 00 CT* O rH CN ro ID VD r- 00 CT* O

a) W 1 rH rH \—

1

rH rH 1—

1

rH rH rH 1—

1

CN CN CN CN CN CN (N CN tN CN ro -Q >4 0) g (0 m

3 <u (0

8
Table

A-3b.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

amounts

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate,

OMB

short-term

discount

rate.

1

1

1

1

1

1 1 CN VO ro CN ro r* ro tH CN LD

1 1 dP 1 O o tH CN ro VO 00 O CN

1 1 in 1 •

1 1 1 tH (N ro LO VO p 00 o tH

1

1

1

1

1 tH tH

1

1

1

1 1 tH CN 00 LO ro ro p

1 1 dP 1 O o o tH tH CN ro LO vo

1 1 1 •

>—

.

1 1 1 tH CN ro LO VO p 00 <J\ o

rH 1 1 1 tH

<u 1 1 3 1 1 VW 1 1 1 O tH tH CN ro LO p <J\ tH

1 1 1 dP 1 O O O O o o O o o tH c 1 1 m 1 0 1 1 1 tH CN ro 'i* LO VO p 00 (Ti o

dP c 1 1 1 tH 00 '

1 1 1

(N to 1 1 1 CT> 00 LO CN CO CTi CN ID 00

>-i 1 1 dP 1 G\ CTi a\ 0\ 00 CO p p vo LO

ii 0 1 0) 1 CN 1 4-> 1 Co 1 1 O tH CN CO 'd' LO VO r- CO CTi 0) u 1 c 1 1 4J (0 1 it! 1 b. 1 X! 1

1 u 1 1 00 lo O ro ro G\ LO c\

1 1 <#> 1 o\ <T> G\ CO VO LO ro CN O

4J * 1 <D 1 tH 1 c > 1 u 1 1 o tH CN CO LO vo p 00 a\ 3 0. 1 *H 1 1 O D 1 u 1 o — 1 a 1 w 1 1 1 p CN ro tH LO 00 00 vo CN •H 0) 1 4-J 1 dP 1 <T> <T» CO r- ID CN o 00 ID 3 1 o 1 o 1 rH 1 1 1 o tH CN CO ^Ji LO vo r- p 00 £ to 1 a> 1 1

>-i > 1 U 1 <D 1 (0 1 4J 4J 1 u 1 1 VO a\ CO 'tf p 00 CO

1 c 1 1 dP 1 (J\ 00 p VO CN o p tH

jj 0) 1 rH 1 tH 1 to 1 0 1 1 1 o tH CN ro LO vo vo p CO o Q) 1 3 1 1 U 1 C 1 to Cl. 1 c 1

1 5 1 1 in VO ro in ** <j\ tH <J\ vo

CQ s 1 1 dP 1 cr» CO p in ro O CO tH p

S Vd 1 1 (N 1 o 0 1 1 1 1 o tH CN CO Ln LO to p p

LW 1 1 1

1 1 c 1 1 D 1 1 1 ro p r* tH CN tH tH p

1 1 dP 1 CT CO VO CN LO CN 00 ro T3 1 1 ro 1 0) 1 1 i 1 O tH CN ro LO VO ID p

•H 1 1 1 4-1 1 1 •H 1 1

1 1 1 ro tH CN 00 <J\ LO p in CT> o

O 1 1 dP 1 00 ID ro o p ro <T> o

s 1 1 1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1 o tH CN ro LO LO VO r1

1

1

1 1 CN 00 p O p a\ p- o CTi LO

1 1 dP 1 r- LO ro CT LO tH tH vo

1 1 ID 1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1 o tH CN ro ro LO LO VO vo

£ 1 4-1 0 0) 1 0 ^ -U 1 4-1 H3 1 >4 T3 1 tHCNrO^LOVOr^COCTkO

0) W 1 tH n m a) 1 g <a w 1 3 ai to 1 S >i 42 1

>1

|

Si. JO >,

« — *- e

CO 2

so as 1

1

ii

1

1

u. 5

o a

a s

s .52 2

CO ts O 1/3

9
Table

A-3c.

UPV*

factors

for

finding

the

present

value

of

annually

recurring

amounts

changing

ata

constant

escalation

rate,

OMB

long-term

discount

rate.

1

1

1

1

1

1 1 CM VO CM O o CM r* CO CM CO r- CO xH CM vo CM o CM VO co CM UO x-H CXi x-H vo d< in o 00

1 1 5%1 O o T—

1

CM CO in r- CXi x-H CO vo CD CM in G\ CO r- x-H vo rH vo CM O r- d< CM CXi

1 1 1 x—

1

CM CO in vo t'- co <T\ x-H CM co d< VO 00 o x-H CO VO r- CXi o CM -d* uo r- CXi o

1

1

1

1

1 x—

1

x—

1

X—

1

X 1 X—

1

x-H x-H CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO CO co CO d<

1

1

1

1 1 X 1 co VO O in X—

1

00 vo LO in VO 00 CM vo CM CD r- vo VO r- CX» CO 00 x-H o o x-H CO r1 1 4% 1 o o o X 1 X 1 CM CM CO m vo r- (X o CM CO LO (Xi xH CO vo 00 x-H o co vo CD

1 1 1 X—

1

CM CO in VO r- 00 CXi o X—

1

CM co in VO r- 00 CTt O CM CO d* in t- 00 CXi x-H CM co d<

l—

1

at

1

1

1

1

1 X—

1

X—

1

X—

1

X—

1

X—

1

x-H x-H x-H x-H CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO CO 3

4-1

1

1

1

1 1 o o o o o O o o O o o O o o O O o O O O O O o O O o o O o o

1 1 1 <*> 1 o o o o o O o o o o o o o o O O o O o o O o o O O o o O o o

G 1 1 co 1 O 1 1 1 X—

1

CM co d< in VO r- 00 CXi o X—

l

CM CO in VO r- 00 CD o x-H CM CO UO vo r- 00 CXi o

G 1 1 1 X—

1

X—

1

X—

1

X—

1

x-H x-H X 1 x-H x-H x-H CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM co

c#> O

1

1

1

1 • (/) 1 1 1 <Ti o vo o CO vo r~ 00 00 U0 CM CD •df CT\ CO VO 00 O O o CXi 00 UO CM 00 00 co G 1 1 dP 1 o\ ON <Xt CXi 00 CO c- vo LO •d* CO CM x—

1

o 00 in CM o CX\ r~ uo CM o 00 vo CO x-H CO o 1 a> 1 CM 1 n 4-1 1 tn 1 1 o X—

1

CM CO d LO vo r- 00 <Xt o X—

1

CM CO CO 'd' in vo r- 00 CO CXi o x-H CM CM co in in u 1 c 1 1 X—

1

xH xH xH x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM

at (0 1 fC 1 4-> u* 1 -G 1

(tS 1 u 1 1 00 00 xH CM x—

1

CO CO r- (X o CX vo CM t^ O CM CM X 1 00 UO CXi CO VO vo o vo g *—. 1 1 dP 1 CXi cxi 00 00 vo CO xH CD 00 uo CO x-H 00 VO CO O CO o VO co CD uo x-H r- co (Xi

•K 1 QJ 1 X 1 1 4J > 1 O 1 1 o X—

1

CM CO tn vo t- CO 00 C

X

o X—

1

CM CM CO in UO vo r- t" 00 00 ex* o o x-H x-H CM G 04 1 •H 1 1 X—

1

x-H x-H x-H x—

1

x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H X 1 x-H x-H x-H CM CM CM CM CM 3 D 1 G 1 0 — 1 04 1 U 1 1 1 r~ X—

1

ro CM 00 CM CO CM CXt CO in in co O vo UO CM 00 CM d< d< x-H 00 co VO CXi o

m 0) 1 4-1 1 dP 1 CXi cd 00 t" in -d< CM O r- UO CM CX vo CO CTt LO x-H CO 00 -d1 CXi CD 00 CO r- x-H vo •H 3 1 o 1 o 1 1—

1

1 1 1 o X 1 CM CO in vo 00 (J\ CD o x-H x-H CM CO CO «d< •d1 in uo vo VO r- 00 00 CXi CXi rd 1 0) 1 1 X 1 x-H x—

1

x—

1

x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H X 1 X—

1

x-H x-H x-H x-H rH x-H x-H e > 1 4-1 1 G 1 1 ai 4-> 1 G 1 1 VO <X co in CXi CM CM CD vo vo <J\ CM CO CM (Xi d< 00 o o 00 VO x-H vo CD O x-H

4-1 c 1 1 dP 1 CXi 00 vo •d CM CXi d< O r- CO CD in O vo x-H VO O UO CO CO X j LO CXi CM in CXi CM

1 0) 1

1—

1

1 X—

1

1 • tn U) 1 rd 1 1 1 O X—

1

CM CO LO in vo r** 00 00 CD CD o x-H x-H CM CM CO CO CO d< uo uo in vo vo vo r- G QJ 1 3 1 1 x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H X—

1

x-H x-H x-H X—

1

t—

i

rH x-H O g 1 G 1

1—

1

04 1

1 £

1

1 1 ID VO CM CM vo r- 00 00 vo x—

l

d CO '

1 vo (Xl O CXi vo rH vo vo UO co CXi CO O

CQ s 1 1 dP 1 O'! 00 tn CO O r- o VO CM 00 CO 00 co r- x-H VO <Xl CO O co VO CXi CM r- CXi CM 2 G 1 1 CM 1 O O 1 1 1 1 O X—

1

CM CO in LO vo r- r- 00 00 CD CD o o x-H x-H x-H CM CM CO CO CO CO d< in

4-1 •H

1

1

1

1

1 rH xH x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x—

1

X 1 x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x—

1

x-H GD

1

1

1

1 1 co VO uo <x» CTi uo vo in o x-H o vo CD O 00 00 O O 00 UO o vo r- VO CO O

1 1 dP 1 CD 00 VO xH 00 LO X 1 r- CO 00 co r- x-H vo <J\ CO VO O CO in 00 rH co in CXi x—

1

CO UO T3 1 1 co 1 QJ 1 1 i 1 O X—

1

CM CO in vo vo r- r- 00 00 CX CD <T\ o o x-H x-H x-H x-H CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO •H

4-1

1

1

1

1

1 x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H

•H 1

1

1

1 1 co o rH r- r- CM ro o co CX CM CM cx r- in x-H VD CXi O O 00 in x-H vo O co UO O 1 1 dP 1 (Xi 00 VO co o co (Xi cx co 00 CM in CTt CM in 00 x-H CO UO CO o x—

1

CO in vo 00 CXi O

2 1

1

1

1 1

1

1 o T—

1

CM co in in vo vo r- 00 00 00 CD CD <J\ O o O o <—

1

x-H x-H rH x-H x-H X—

1

CM

1

1

1

1

1 x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H x-H rH x-H x-H x-H x-H

1

1

1

1 1 CM r- VO 00 in vo CO vo >d« 00 o r- CM in CM r- o CM CM O CO r- O CM d< "d* CM

1 1 -5%

1 CXi t- ID CM (Xi in xH vo x—

1

in o CO I-' o co vo 00 x-H CO UO CO O X—

1

CO uo VO r- 00

1 1 1 o X 1 CM CO co in m VO vo r* r- r- 00 00 00 00 CD <X> CX» CXi CXi O O o o o o o O

1 1 1 x-H x-H rH x-H x-H X—

1

X 1 x-H

e 1 4-1 o Q) 1 O G 4-1 1 44 (d 1 G CXi T) 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 x-H CM CO in vo r- 00 CXi O X 1 CM CO UO VO 00 o

0) W 1 x-H x-H x-H x-H rH x-H X 1 x-H x-H rH CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CO

I ,Q G OJ

i e (0 w

i 3 a) <0

I 2 >i£)

10

*

OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

1996.

OMB

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1997.

Long-term

discount

rate

based

on

OMB

discount

rate

for

30-year

study

period.
B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs

This section presents FEMP and OMB modified uniform present value (UPV*) discount factors for

calculating the present value of energy usage for federal projects. Factors are provided for the four major

Census regions and for the overall United States. The factors are modified in the sense that they incorporate

energy price escalation rates based on future energy prices projected by DOE for fiscal years 1997-2026.

There are two sets of UPV* tables: the "Ba" tables present FEMP UPV* factors based on the DOE discount

rate (3.4% real), and the "Bb" tables present OMB UPV* factors based on two OMB discount rates (2.8%

real for short-term study periods of 1 to 10 years, 3.0% real for long-term study periods of 1 1 to 30 years).

The underlying energy price indices for fiscal years 1997 to 2026 on which these UPV* calculations are based are shown in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5. The corresponding average energy price escalation rates for

selected time intervals between 1997 and 2025 are shown in tables Cb-1 through Cb-5.

Energy Price Projections

The FEMP and OMB UPV* factors incorporate energy price escalation rates computed from future energy

prices projected by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy. Energy

prices through 2015 were generated by EIA using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and

published in the Annual Energy Outlook 19961 (AE096). At the request of FEMP, EIA extrapolated energy

prices after the year 2015 from the AE096 data. NEMS is an energy market model designed to project the impacts of alternative energy policies or assumptions on U.S. energy markets. NEMS produces projections of the U.S. energy future, given current laws and policies and other key assumptions, including macroeconomic indicators from Data Resources,

Inc., the production policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the size of the

economically recoverable resource base for fossil fuels, and the rate of development and penetration of new

technologies. NEMS balances energy supply and demands with modules representing primary fuel supply,

end-use demand for four sectors, and conversion of energy by refineries and electricity generators.

Macroeconomic and international oil modules reflect the impacts of energy prices, production, and

consumption on world oil markets and the economy.

In order to produce price projections to 2026, EIA extrapolated the prices from the AE096 with specific

assumptions about long-term trends, to provide long-term price expectations to the post-2015 projections,

world oil price expectations through 2050 were calculated using assumptions of world oil supply and

demand. These expectations were used as the basis for the 2026 projections of petroleum product prices,

using the implied 2015 refinery markups to calculate the regional, end-use prices.

The EIA energy price projections presented in this report, like those of other forecasters, are dependent on

the data, methodologies, and specific assumptions used in their development. Many of the assumptions

concerning the future cannot be known with any degree of certainty. Thus, the projections are not

statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the particular assumptions and methodologies

used. Although EIA has endeavored to make these forecasts as objective, reliable, and useful as possible,

these projections should serve as an adjunct to, not a substitute for, the analytical process. The AE096 was

prepared by EIA as required under statute by federal legislation. The price projections to 2026 were

prepared in accordance with a Service Request from the Federal Energy Management Program.

1 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 1996, DOE/EPA-0383(96), January 1996

11
UPV* Calculation Method

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

p -\ x T.^-a0 xupvn , r=i (1+fl)

where A0

tN

I(1996+t)

d

= annual cost of energy as of the base date; = index used to designate each year, with t=l for the year 1997; = number of periods, e.g. years, over which energy costs or savings accrue; = projected average fuel price index2 given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

for the year 1996+t (where I 1996 = 1.00); and = the discount rate.

This formula is based on end-of-year energy prices and end-of-year discounting. Note that annual energy

costs as of the base date (Aq, to be supplied by the analyst) should reflect the current energy price schedule

as of the base date, which may not be the same as the energy price itself on that date. That is, the annual

energy cost should reflect summer-winter rate differences, time-of-use rates, block rates considerations,

and demand charges (as appropriate) anticipated to be in effect that year. If energy and demand costs are calculated separately (as is sometimes done for electricity), the UPV* factor should be applied to both

costs.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. Figure

B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census regions do

not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or

the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under

the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for guidance.

2 For greater precision, the UPV* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using the unrounded form

of the indices given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.

12
WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

(Region

4)

(Region

2)

(Region

1)

13
B.l. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value (FEMP UPV*) factors presented in the "Ba" tables, based on

the current DOE discount rate (3.4%), are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings

accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of federal energy conservation and

renewable energy projects. Factors are reported in the "Ba" tables for 30 years to accommodate a

planning/design/construction period of up to 5 years. (See "Examples of How to Use FEMP UPV* Factors" below for instructions on use with planning/design/construction periods.)

These factors apply only to annual energy usage or energy savings that are assumed to be the same each

year over the service period. The NIST BLCC computer program can compute the present value of energy

usage and savings which are not the same in each year.

Examples of How to Use the FEMP UPV* Factors:

FEMP UPV*, no planning/design/construction period: To compute the present value of heating with natural gas over 25 years in a federal office building in New Mexico, go to Table Ba-4, find the FEMP UPV* factor

for commercial natural gas for 25 years (17.17), and multiply this factor by the annual heating cost at basedate natural gas prices.

FEMP UPV*, with planning/design/construction period: To compute a present value factor for a service

period following a planning/design/construction period (1) find the FEMP UPV* factor for the combined

length of the planning/design/construction period and the service period (not to exceed 30 years), and (2)

subtract from (1) the FEMP UPV* factor for the planning/design/construction period alone. The difference

is the FEMP UPV* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings actually accrue. For example,

suppose a new federal office building in New York is being evaluated with several energy conserving

design options. It is expected to have a planning/design/ construction period of 5 years, after which it will

be occupied for at least 25 years. To compute the present value of natural gas costs over 25 years of

occupancy, go to Table Ba-1 and find the FEMP UPV* factors for commercial natural gas for 5 years

(4.61) and for 30 years (19.01). The difference (14.40) is the FEMP UPV* factor for natural gas costs over

25 years, beginning 5 years after the base date. Multiply 14.40 by the annual natural gas cost at base-date

prices (not occupancy-date prices) to calculate the present value of natural gas costs over the entire 25-year

occupancy period.

14
Discount

rate

=

3.4

percent

(DOE)

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15

*

'.

*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to

5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

i

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
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19

MPV*

factors

are

reported

for

years

26-30

to

accommodate

a

planning/construction

period

of

up

to

5

years.

(See

p.

14

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The OMB Modified Uniform Present Value (OMB UPV*) factors presented in the "Bb" tables, based on

the current OMB discount rates (2.8% short term and 3.0% long term), are for calculating the present value

of energy costs accruing over 1 to 30 years when conducting a life-cycle cost analysis of a federal project

which is not explicitly related to energy or water conservation or renewable resources. Factors are reported

in the "Bb" tables for 30 years. These factors apply only to annual energy usage that is assumed to be the same each year over the service period. The NIST BLCC computer program can compute the present value

of energy usage and savings that are not the same in each year.

Examples of How to Use the OMB UPV* Factors:

OMB UPV* (OMB discount rate): To compute the present value over 30 years of electricity costs associated with the occupancy of a federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not a

specific consideration in the LCC analysis), go to Table Bb-2, find the OMB UPV* factor for commercial

electricity for 30 years (19.1 1), and multiply this factor by the annual electricity cost in base-date dollars.

NOTE: Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate) is different for years

1-10 (2.8%) than for years 1 1-30 (3.0%), these factors cannot be used with a planning/design/construction

period as shown above for the Ba tables (DOE discount rate). Use the BLCC or DISCOUNT computer

program for this purpose. For further explanation of the use of UPV* factors, see NIST Handbook 135.

20
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21

MB

discount

rate

as

of

February

1996.

OMB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1997.

(See

p.

20

for

instructions

on

use;

lage

xii

for

abbreviations.)
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22

*OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

1996.

OMB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1997.

(See

p.

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
2 1 rH CN

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23

*OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

1996.

OMB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1997.

(See

p.

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
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24

*OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

1996.

OMB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1997.

(See

p.

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
Table

Bb-5.

OMB

UPV*

Discount

Factors

adjusted

for

fuel

price

escalation,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

Z i t—

i

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i—

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i—

1

r~ rH ro H1 H1 CM 00 00 r—

1

ro H1 ro

cx r—

1

i cn cn CT\ <T\ CO 00 r- VO in ro <—

1

cn VO rH 00 in rH 00 O VO CM r- ro 00 H1 <T\ <T\ CO 0) i *z i o rH CM ro LO VO r- CO <n o O r—

1

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1

»—

1

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cn<ncor^vo^cMOoovocMcnvocM(ninovocMr''CMcoror'CMr^rHino''tf

OrHCMro<3, invor'*c-'CO<n<noTHTHCMroro'«3i,'tfininvovor'~r''‘Coco(ncn

Oro

Viuo

a>

o

ro3

c

C3

V5U

«

<U

00

r4

II <u

«•» C3

a

3o

<y

C/3

1 VO O O r* CM in rH in 00 CO ro CT\ O 00 <3* <J\ CM "31 ro O VO O H1 VO vo rH

<TJ 0

1 CTr cr\ 00 vo in ro r—

1

<j\ r* O r- rH C^ ro O in rH VO CM CM C" CM VO rH in cr> ro

1 O rH CM ro in VO vo r> 00 cn o> O rH rH CM ro ro in in VO vo r- r- CO ao 00 cn u 1 rH r—

1

rH rH 1—1 rH rH rH rH r—

1

rH rH r—

1

rH rH rH r—

1

rH

U) 1 O 00 ro VO r- in o CM rH 00 CM m CM cr> in O in <T\ ro in VO LO ro CT\ ro r- <T> <T\ CT\ r-

<d o

4J

1 o cn <T\ 00 vo in ro rH 00 in CM CT\ in CM CT> in rH 00 H1 O VO CM r- ro 00 ro 00 ro 00

1 rH rH CM ro in vo (" 00 00 <T\ o O rH CM CM ro H1 in VO VO r- 00 ao CTi CT\ O o

3 1 rH rH rH rH r—

1

r—

1

rH rH rH rH rH r—

1

r—

1

rH r—

1

r—

1

rH CM CM j

< Tl 1 O O rH ro in G\ rH rH rH m r" O CM ro CM O VO O H1 VO r- r- r- in rH r- CM VO H •H 1 O O O O o o o t—

1

r—

1

rH <T\ cr> CO CO r- vo in CM rH a\ r- in ro rH <T\ r- CM cn u (/) 1 oc <D 1 rH CM ro O' in VO CO cr> O o r—

1

CM ro H1 in vo CO <y\ o rH CM ro ro H1 in vo vo w (X 1 r—

1

T 1 rH r—

1

rH r—

1

rH rH rH rH rH rH CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM o 1 rH CM ro O’ H1 H1 rH r- CM in rH 00 CM ro ro t—

1

rH H1 in in H1 CM CO ro O r—

1

rH 0/ u •U 1 O O O O O O O CTi <T\ CO vo in ro CM o 00 VO ro rH CO in CM <J\ VO CM <T\ in CM CO 0£ w 1 a

u

•H 1 r—

1

CM ro O’ in VO 00 <n o r—

1

CM ro H1 in VO 00 CTi <J\ O rH t—

l

CM ro ro H1 Q i rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CM CM CM CM CM CM CM > 1 r- CM •O’ ro rH VO 00 <n CM in in CM 00 rH CM rH <T» in o vo VO in CM 00 ro VO cn O

< u

d) rH

1 cT\ <n 00 vo CM o 00 vo CM <n VO CM (J\ in rH VO CM 00 ro 00 ro CO ro CM VO o in vi 1 o rH CM ro in VO r- r- 00 a> <T\ O rH rH CM ro ro H1 H1 in in vo vo r- r- 00 00 a> cn o W 1 r—

1

rH i—1 rH 1—1 i—1 rH rH rH rH rH r—

1

rH rH r—

1

rH rH rH w

2

C/3 -3

4> w 1 00 ro VO r- in o ro ro o in in CM C" rH ro in [" H1 o in 00 o o cr> r- *7 cn

-i-* dJ 1 <n <n 00 vo in ro r—

1

cn vo CM <T\ VO CM Ch in rH ro <JS in vo r- CM vo VO o c

O

-U

1

1 o rH CM ro in VO 00 <j\ <n o rH rH CM ro ro in VO vo r- 00 00 cn o

3 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CM

1 <T\ 00 in CM <T» H1 vo r- vo 00 <T\ O 00 CO rH CM O 00 ro r- (T\ O o 00 *-r o T VO

1 CT\ cn <n c\ CO 00 r- VO in rH <T\ 00 in ro O 00 in CM 00 in r- H1 o in CM r-

.4 O 1 < (X 1 o rH CM ro in VO r* 00 <T\ o o rH CM ro H1 H1 LO VO VO ao CO (T\ o o rH r—

1

CM CM H J 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CM CM CM CM CM CM § 1 o <T» r* rH vo CO o CTV CM in ro O C-" 00 r* LO rH in <J\ rH CM rH cn VO CM r* Q 4J 1 o <J\ <T\ <J\ <T\ 00 r- in CM O 00 VO rH 00 in CM cn VO CM 00 in r—

1

CM ao H* cn H w 1 cn •H 1 rH rH CM ro in vo 00 CT\ O rH rH CM ro H1 H1 in VO VO CO 00 cr» o o rH rH CM CM U

a: Q 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CM CM CM CM CM CM

1 VO o CM O VO o CM CM o VO <T\ CTs r- ro VO 00 in CM 00 rH TT rH 00 ro ON o

U

0) rH

1 Cn cn 00 r- in CM O 00 in rH 00 in CM 00 O VO CM r* ro ao ro 00 ro C" CM vo O in

1 o rH CM ro in VO r' 00 CTi <T\ o rH rH CM ro ro H* rji in in vo VO r- r* 00 0-3 cn cn W 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH *H rH rH rH rH rH r—

1

»H *"*

3 1 rH CM ro M1 in vo r- 00 <Ti o rH CM ro in VO C"- 00 C7\ O t—

1

CM ro in VO r- ao <T» o

rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM CM ro

25

•

OMB

discount

rate

as

of

February

1996.

OMB

discount

rates

are

expected

to

be

revised

in

February

1997.

(See

p.

20

for

instructions

on

use;

page

xii

for

abbreviations.)
C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real)

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected fuel price indices for the 4 Census regions and for the United

States. These are factors which, when multiplied by annual energy costs computed at base-date prices,

provide estimates of future-year costs in constant base-date dollars. The indices are based on end-of-year

energy prices. End-of-year indices are used because the discount factors provided in this report are based on the end-of-year discounting convention. Constant dollar costs are needed when discounting is performed

with a real discount rate (i.e., one which does not include general price inflation).

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial coal at the end of FY 2005 in Connecticut (in constant 1997 dollars),

go to Table Ca-1, find the year 2005 index for industrial coal (.95), and multiply by the price for industrial

coal in Connecticut at the beginning of fiscal year 1997.

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage change

compounded annually) for selected periods from 1996 to 2025 for the four Census regions and for the

overall United States. Note that these are real rates exclusive of general price inflation. Their use results

in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca tables so

that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to accommodate

computer programs (such has BLCC) which require price escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the indices in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices include year-to-year

information rather than averages over a number of years.

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates:

To estimate the unit price of residential natural gas at the end of 2005 (p05 ) in Wyoming using the DOE

energy price escalation rates, go to Table Cb-4 and find the 1997-2000 and the 2001-2005 escalation rates for residential natural gas (0.4% for 5 years and -0.7% for 5 years, respectively). Enter these values and

the unit price of residential natural gas in Wyoming at the end-of-FY 1996 (p96)

3 into the following formula.

Then solve for the 2005 energy price (stated in end-of-FY 1996 dollars):

P05 = P96 X 0 + e \'t' X O + e2^

= P96 JC (1 + 0.004)4 X (\ - 0.007)5

3 The price at the end of fiscal year 1996 is the same as the price at the beginning of FY 1997. End-of-year 1996 is used

here to maintain consistent notation.

26
P JC 0.9801 96

where py = Price at end of fiscal year y;

e; = Annual compound escalation rate for period I from the Cb tables (in decimal form); and

k, = Number of years over which escalation rate ej occurs.

Note that the compounded escalation rate factor (0.9801) corresponds to the fuel price index in region 4,

residential natural gas, for the year 2005 in table Ca-4 (0.98).

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. Figure

B-l presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census regions do

not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or

the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under

the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for guidance.

27
Table

Ca-1.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

t;

<ua i H 1 ro 00 ro in VO LO o !> VO CO in i tH 1 O tH tH cn cn CN cn cn cn CN o <n i o 1 • ii CN 11 tH tH tH o o tH tH o o o tH tH tH o i O 1 ro 00 r- in tH vo cn 00 VO LO ro i t—1 1 o tH tH cn cn CN cn cn cn CN O cn i O 1 o i CN 1 tH tH tH o o t—1

tH o o o tH tH tH o o i 1

tH1 i cn 1 CN 00 ro in cn vo o r- vo ro CN i O I O tH t—1

<n cn CN ro cn o cn CN

O cn

II i O 1 • • i CN 1 tH tH tH

O o tH tH o tH o tH tH tH o i 1 cn i 00 1 tH r- tH VO ro VO vo tH vo O tH vo i o 1 O tH tH cn cn CN ro cn O cn CN O cn

tH i o 1 • • • i <N 1 tH tH tH o o tH tH o tH o t—1

tH tH o

4-1 i 1 0 i r~ 1 tH VO tH *3* r~ CN vo t—1

r- ro 00 tH

Cn i o 1 O tH tH cn CN ro cnO cn CN roO cn

G i o 1 • • *H i CN 1 tH tH tH o o tH tH o tH o tH tH tH o G i 1 G

•H i VO 1 CN VO tH in r- CN tH r- tH 00 CN LO t—1

cn i O 1 O tH tH cn <n CN ro cn

O cn CN roO cn

0) i O 1 • • • cn ii CN 11 tH tH tH o o tH tH o tH o tH tH tH o

05 i in 1 tH

H1 cn VO 00

O cn CO tH cn tH

m tH in

d) i o 1 O tH

O cn cn CN CN cn

O cn CN ro

O cn

u i o 1 • • • • •H

TJ ii CN 11 tH tH t—1 o o tH tH o tH o tH tH tH o

IS

C

</3

M i 1 O ro 00 00 00 VO cn tH cn cnO CN uo Q. i o 1 O tH o cn cn tH CN cn O cn tH ro O cn £

0) i o 1 • 3 w u i CN 1 tH tH tH o o tH tH o tH o tH tH tH o

SB eo

•HG £

44

eu i ro 1 O CN 00 00 cn r- ro o tH cn r- vo CN vo E i o 1 O tH O a\ cn tH CN o O cn t—i

CNO cn

u rH i o 1 • • z a> a) i CN 1 tH tH tH o o tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o

•\ > 3 i 1 C/3 Cn -w "O i CN 1 O CN 00 00 cn VO tH tH tH o r- ro CN ID

QJ

C/3 3 c G i O 1 O tH

O cn cn tH CNOO o tH CNO cn 3 i O 1 • • • • jC T/5 QJ i CN 1 tH tH tH o o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o

4) >< i 1 C3

C/3 QJ T3 44 i »—1 1 O tH r*

n cn ID tHO cn LOO CN

</3 <3 s o

JS

OS 01 TJ£ iii oo

CN 111 OH

tH

tH o

tH

cnocno

tH

tH

tH

tH

O

tH

O

tH

cno

tH

tH

CN

tH

O

tH

cno

.2c w

T) ii Oo 11 00 60 05 cn

cn

00n

CN

tH

ro

tH

CNO

TO cn

cn

CN

tH 15 02 94

C8 cs 04 i o 1 s J-> O

QJ ii CN 1| tH tH tH o o tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o

>> 3 E

•ro i cn 1 O VO cn cn cnO CN tH o cn tH ro ID o C

a> o i cn 1 O o O cn cn o tH

OO o o tH

O cn

g i cn 1 • • u

44 On a. ii tH 11 tH tH tH o o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o cc u i 00 1 O in ro o o VO VO CN tH O r- r- ro r* o o i CT\ 1 O o O o o O O O O O o o O cn U i cn 1 • • • i <H 1 tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o * • 1 c z i r* 1 cn CN tH cn O ro CN CN 00 O ro ro O cn o i cn 1 cn O O cn o O O O cn O O O O cn

*oS) 44 qj ii cnH 11 o tH tH o tH tH tH tH o <

1 tH tH tH o

OS c/3 u i 1

c/3 44 3 •—s

c/5 c

44 o *

44 z iiii

rH

a>3 1111 rH•H

rH•H

rH•H i Cn 1 o o rH o rH i 1 >, u> >i *H C/5 > •H C/5 i TD 1 rH 4-1 QJ 3 44 Q) o 3 44 QJ o 3 i G 1 <TJ •H 44 U rH •H QJ U rH •H 44 a i (0 1 •H u <d o 3 rH 3 o (tf rH i 1 44 •H •

1 tH -H •H 1—1 cd rH •H •H rH <d •—1 i G 1 c G rH (fl u G rH 3 cd G G rH 3 (tf i O 1 0) 44 •H G G 44 •H TJ G 44 44 •H U G i 44 1 "0 u 4J 3 QJ o 44 •H 3 rH C/5 u 44 H 3 rH i u 1 •H QJ U) n 44 £ QJ <j) C/4 44 rtf 3 0) (J5 C/5 44 (tf i QJ 1 U) rH •H CD rd £ 1—1

•H 0) (fl o TJ rH •H QJ <TJ o i C/5 1 QJ w Q P 2 o W a DC 2 u C u a DC 2 u i 1 DC u H co

•H4-) (0 QJgoa

g

w o G J-) 3 o G X

28

Gasoline

1.01

1.05

1.06

1.09

1.10

1.11

1.11

1.12

1.12

1.13

1.13

1.13

1.13

1.13

1.12
1 VO 1 in tH o in 1 <N 1 o CO CN o 1 O 1 • • • • 11 (N 11 tH tH rH rH 1 in 1 in O O 1 (N 1 o ro CN O 1 o 1 • • • • o 1 CN 1 tH rH tH tH o 1 1

rH 1 1 in <J\ CT\ 1 CN 1 o CN tH

O

II 1 O 1 • • • • 1 CN 1 tH tH tH rH # r~ 1 1 ax a 1 CO 1 in 00 00

>< 1 CN 1 o CN rHO •tot b 1 O 1 • • • • “a

4HO 11 CN 11 tH tH tH rH 1 CN 1 in r- 00 T3 Di 1 CN 1 o CN tH O C G 1 O 1 • • . * 3 *H 1 CN 1 tH rH tH tH u G 1 1 O G *-» •H 1 x—1 1 in VO

a> Gl 1 CN 1 o CN tH

O

C/3 Q) 1 O 1 • • • •

CJ 03 1 CN 1 tH tH tH rH

c/3

— 1 1 3 W 1 O 1 in in rH1 "33 I*

0)u 11 CNO 11 o CN tH

O

0/ 2 *H 1 CN 1 tH tH tH tH

V) T3 \ 1 JD a. G g H 1 <J\ 1 in VO

H1 /^N N _ 3 w' a g 1 i—1 1 o CN rH O s

.©

d>U 11 O

CN 11 tH rH tH rH

•tot 63 * i

•HG 1 1 C Qt 1 00 1 in ro VO cn c z t" 1 r—1 1 o CN tH o « 

i—1 1 O 1 • • .

CQ

C/3 W ^ 0) 1 CN 1 rH tH tH tH

i_ s O

G 1 1 a» % 3 bt e s J2

JS C/3 U HN 1 r- 1 in CN in

m

<v

OX)

G

(C 11 t—1 o 11 o CN tH o

0£ CO

v

d) 1 CN 1 tH tH tH rH # s 1/3 to a 1 sg

>< 1 1 '3 1 4-1 1 VO 1 in tH in

m

J3 01 11 tHo 11 o CN tH o

4>X

a> oT -T s .2

TJG 11 CN 11 tH rH rH rH

y "3 3 Cd

V} 3 J5 1 in 1 in tH cn V £ |

T5

0) 11 tHo 11 o CN tH o o toT &» 4-1 1 CN 1 tH tH rH rH _c 3 3 u 1 1 O g

d4 a> '-to V

*n 1 H1 1 O in tH .2 4» a, 0 1 tH 1 O CN tH O t . 44 ^ G 1 O 1 • • • M

a. 3 lOt 11 CN 11 tH tH rH tH “s O © U £ 1 ro 1 ro <J\ 00

^-i 1 tH 1 o rH rH G\ T5

4> <=, 0/ 11 O

CN 11 tH tH rHO

W© z 1 1

<U •o’ S’ s 11 CN

tH 11 03 19 13 96

Ito Qj 3n 1 O 1 • • • • 0« ^ u 1 CN 1 tH tH tH o C/J 44 1 1 • 3 >-9 •oV w ^ 3 £ 3 4) 41 i .3 U Z 1 rH i1 to 1 <1) 1 rH S 1 3 1 o 1 El, 1 o w 1 1 >i w 1 T3 1 r-l 4-1 0) (0 1 1 G 1 (0 -G U CD 3 1 ttf 1 •G o

rj 1 1 4J •G rH rH 1 U l c G rH (0 jj 1 0 1 <U •U *H G 3 1 4J 1 T3 U 4J 3

eg 1 u 1 •G 04

W o •U

H 1 CD 1 W r-l •H &4 (0 1 CO 1 0) w Q 2 1 1 cd

29

in cn <TiO r- in in in

O UO o

CTi r-~ tH cn cn 00 ro cn CN o tH tH tH o o rH tH tH o tH

in CN VOO in ro CN cn uo cn

r- rH cn cn 00 CN cn t—i o rH tH tH o o rH tH rH o tH

in tHO r- in CN cn 00 uo CO

0\ r- rH cr\ cn C" CN cn t—1

CD rH rH tH CD o ,—1 tH tH o tH

in (Tl rH <J\

O in

O r- uo r-

<j\ ro o CD cn C" CN cn rH o rH rH tH CD o tH tH rH o rH

in 00 00 <J\ l> in cn UO in c-

(T\ ro VO CD cn cn ro c- CN cn tH

CD rH tH tH o o rH tH rH o rH

in VO VO G\ r- in 00 tH in VO

<j\ ro VO CD cn cn ro r^* CN cn tH

CD rH tH rH o o tH rH tH o tH

in in ro 00 i> in VO 00 ro in UO

cr> ro VOO cn cn ro VO CN cn rH o rH rH tH o o tH tH tH o tH

in H*O 00 o in in in CN uo in

cn ro VOO cn <n ro vo CN cn tH o tH rH tH o o tH t—i tH o tH

in CN CO CO r- in ro ro tH in

ro in o cn cn ro vo CN cn rH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o rH

in tH in 00 in CN

OO in ro

<T» ro inO cn cn ro VO CN cn tH o tH rH rH o o tH tH tH o rH

inO ro r- inO 00

O uo ro

cn ro in o <ncn ro in CN cn tH o rH tH rH o o rH rH tH o rH

in 00 rH r" in cn LO cn in CN

<j\ CN in o cn cn CN uo tH cn tH

CD tH tH tH o o tH tH t—1 o tH

in 00 <T\ o in cn UO in CN

CN

O cn cn CN in tH cn tH

CD tH tH tH o o rH tH tH o tH

in VO 00 tH r- vo r> CN

O uo CN

CT\ CNO cn cn CN in tH cn tH o tH rH tH o o tH tH tH o tH

in VO VO C^ r- vo rO r- vo CN

Or CN o\ cn cn CN uo o cn rH o rH tH CD o o rH tH tH o tH

rH rH d) •H G C o rH o rH O •G

*H cn >1 • H cn •G rH

4-1 <D o ixJ 4J (u o ix5 4J o

•G 4J

U rH -H 4-)O Hi cn

O

G rH 1X5 o (C5 rH 4-1 (X5 *H i—1

<0 i—i

•G -rH rH 1X5 rG

G

O

G rH 3 tdG

G rH

G 1X5O

•U -rl T3

G 4-> 4J •H T>

G

a

G

U 4-1 •G 3 i—1

cn

U

u •H

G (

l cn

O

0)W 0) 4-> ITS 3 d>w cn •U <X5

G 4-» i—1 -G d) <T5 o ra i—i • H d) H5 0 (X5 o W Q cd 2 u c w Q id 2 U G 2 H

rH

(0 -Hug

d)Ou
Table

Ca-2.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel t

QJa 1 rH 1 LD CN

O rH VO rH VO 00 1 rH 1 cn CN CN O cn ro o cn 1 O 1 • 11 CN 11 o rH rH rH o rH tH tH o 1 O 1 VO tH O O [> O ro ro cn 1 rH 1 cn CN CN O cn ro O cn 1 o 1 • • o 1 CN 1 o rH rH t—1 o rH rH rH o o 1 1

rH 1 cn 1 r- rH o o 00

O t—1

ro cn 1 o 1 cn CN CN o cn ro O cn

n 1 o 1 • • 1 CN 1 o rH rH t—1 o tH rH tH o

r- 1 1 cn 1 00 1 r*

O 00 o 00 00 00 ro

>H 1 o 1 cn CN tH o cn CN ro

O cn

Ch 1 o 1 • • 1 CN 1 o rH rH rH o t—1

tH rH o

4H 1 1 0 1 r- 1 r- cn CO

O CO r-* VO ro

a 1 o 1 <n rH tH

O cn CN roO cn c 1 o 1 • • • • •H 1 CN 1 o rH rH rH o rH t—1

tH o c 1 1 c

•H 1 VO 1 vo 00 cn o 00 VO ro ro

tn 1 o 1 cn rH rH

O cn CN ro o cn

d) 1 o 1 • • • CQ 1 CN 1 o rH rH tH o rH rH tH o 1 1

r' CO 1 LO 1 VO r- vo rH 00 rH vo

0) 1 O 1 cn rH rH o cn CN roO cn

©

u 1 o 1 • • • •

C/5 c •H 1 CN 1 o tH t—1

tH o tH tH rH o <L> 1 1 e c/5 c s Co% H 1 1 VO VO LD rH CO CN cn s <u 11 oo 11 cn tH tH o cn CN CN O cn o 1 CN 1 o tH tH rH o rH tH tH o cn

s£ *Hu 1 1

0X)

a 1 ro 1 i> LD CN cn o vo vo -c 1 o 1 cn rH rH o cn CN CN o cn o rH 1 o 1 • • d) 1 CN 1 o rH t—1

rH o rH rH tH o s

t/T CO

c/3 C©* 3Q 3

Ph 11 CN 11 T" CN cn

O CN LD vo j= 1 o 1 cn t—1 t—1 O cn CN CN O cn w3©

C/3 _©

a) ><i *4H 1111 o

CN

rH 1111 o rH

CN

rH

ro

rH

CN oo t—1

00

tH

cn

rH

ID oLD ef£o o 1 O 1 cn tH rH O o rH tH O cn ISo 1 TJ£ 111 o

CN 111 o rH tH rH tH rH rH rH o w

C5C

iS

ci

w 1 O 1 00 o O CN

O ID LD LD o T3 1 O 1 cn rH rH O O rH rH O cn .2 d) 1 O 1 • • • CO 4-> 1 CN 1 o rH rH rH rH tH tH rH o 5s Q u

d) 1 1 NH -3 •ro 1 cn 1 cn 00 r- tH

O tH rH

#\ *-> 0 1 cn 1 cn o o O

O

O cn

C/5

UOz

3h 1 cn 1 ©c a 11 rH 11 o rH tH rH tH rH tH rH o

S3 CO 1 00 1 cn VO LD rH

O 00 r- -a* 00 1 cn 1 cn O O O O O o O cn

n

C/5 C3u 11 cn

tH 11 o tH tH tH rH tH tH tH o e©

*DJD o>

jo

<u Z 11 r- 11 cn ro CN

O cn ro CN cn 1 cn 1 cn O O O cn O O O cn OS 1 cn 1 • • • u 1 rH 1 o rH tH rH o tH tH rH o

c/5 3 1 1 3 O c/i C/5 s C/5 ox U s 11 rH 11 1 a) 1 i—1 i—1 1 3 1 *H • H 1 U* 1 o o rH 1 1 > (0 > •H 0) 1 TS 1 rH •U d) <0 V tn o (0 1 c 1 td -H i-> 0 rH H D 0 1 « 1 •H o id <d u (T5 rH 1 1 -U •H rH rH •H •H rH rd rH 1 u 1 c Vh rH id u V-l rH 3 <d 1 o 1 <D 4J •H M 4-> •H n 1 4J 1 u U 3 d) o o> •H 3 •—i 1 u 1 •H 0) U) 0 u E d) U) U) 4J 03 1 d) 1 CO rH •H 04 § rH *H d) O 1 U3 1 <u w a J 2 6 w a Pi 2 0 1 1 pi u

co ^ m o

cn CN ^ H

O

O

HHHH

VO

O CN

OO

<n CN ^ H O rH1 tHI rH t—I h h cr> o

cn ro o o O rH t—1 rH t—I

r- LDO 00 00

cn CN ro

O cn o rH tH tH o

r- LD [> r- cn CN ro O cn o tH rH tH o

r- ro r* vo cn CN ro o cn o rH tH rH o

oo cn o r- co

cn cn ro o cn O tH tH rH O

oo o oo oo

CT\ CN (N

O (J\

O rH rH rH

O

cn CO LD VO r- cn rH cn o on O rH rH tH O

cn co cn vo t"* cn rH cn o cn O t—I t—1 \—I o o vo cn vo oo O H H o cn

rH tH rH rHO o ro lo id r- O rH rH o cn

tH tH tH rH

O

ootHinr- o rH tH o cn

rH rH t—I tH

O

O

h LD cn o o o o cn

rH rH tH tH

O o ^ m o cn o o o o cn t—I t—I tH t—I O o rH

>1 •H U) U d) o 0)

r-H *H 4-J 03 U 03 rH 0

-H -H rH 0) rH

Pi ^ rH 3 <d U 4-> -rl T) u W U 4-1 •H p rH 3 d) Cfl W 4J <d T) rH -rH d) (d o G W P H

Pi 55U

rH

cnO

VOO

IT) O

d) £ a o -H -H rH V O

<d Cfl 4J (d

Sh

O oa v-t U) o c 4-> (0 o M 2

30
Table

Ca-2,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type. 1 VO 1 in r~

O in VOm vo o 1 CN 1 03 ro ro rH a\ in 00 CN <J\ 1 o 1 • 11 CN 11 o H H rH o rH H rH o 1 Lfl 1 LT> VO 03 vo H ro r- 1 CN 1 03 CO CN rH in 00 H 03 * 1 O 1 O 1 CN 1 o rH rH H o H H rH o o 1 1

rH 1 1 in 00 vo 0^O 1 CN 1 a\ ro CN rH 00

H

II 1 O 1 • • 1 CN 1 o rH rH rH o rH

HH o

r- I 1 03 1 ro 1 in ro CO

m vo r- r~ 00

>< 1 CN 1 03 ro CN

H a\ rH 03

Cl, 1 O 1 • 1 CN 1 o rH rH

H o rH

H rH o

MH 1 i 0 1 CN 1 in CN c"

m vo U3 r0i 1 CN 1 03 ro CN rH CTi r- rH 03 c 1 O 1 • • • • •H 1 CN 1 o rH H H o H rH rH o c 1 1 c

•rH 1 rH 1 inH VO CN vo rH r~

Oi 1 CN 1 03 CO CN rH <n

H 03

<D 1 O 1 PQ 11 CN 11 o H rH rH o rH

HH o w 1 O 1 in o in CN vo CN 00 VO E-~ s 0) 1 CN 1 03 ro CN rH c^ H1 VO r—1

03 o o 1 O 1 C/5 g •H 1 CN 1 o H H H o rH H H O © T3 1 1 s c/5 C s C H 1 03 1 in 00 in rH vo rH in in i oa 0) 11 rHO 11 03 CN CN rH vo rH 03 u 1 CN 1 o H rH H o H H H O c« £

-H 1 1 M cf a, 1 00 1 in c^

H vo CTi CN in r~ JZ 1 rH 1 03 CN CN rH a\ m VO rH 03 © rH 1 o 1 • qj 1 CN 1 o H H H o rH rH H O i

!3 Q 0

Cl, 1 1 1 r- 1 in CD ro o vo r~ CTi S

C/5 -S

M 1 rH 1 03 CN CN

H C7\ ro in

H 03

QJ 1 O 1 • • s

ca * 3O

cn

rv

Q)l MH 111

CN

VO 111 o

in

rH

in

H

CN

HO o

vo

H

VO

H rH

O 0 1 rH 1 03 CN CN H CTl ro in H 03 £©

IEC i T3C 111 O

CN 111 o rH rH rH o rH rH rHO

s' of Cd 1 ln 1 in CN

O vo ro s © T3 1 rH 1 03 CN CN H ro in H 03

0) 1 o 1 • • • • a 4J 1 CN 1 o H H rH o H

HH

O oe a u

<u 1 1

r-i 1 1 CN CO in CN rH 00

-=U ou 11 rHO 11 03 CN CN o CTi ro in rH 03

©s z

a. 11 CN 11 O rH rH rH o HH rH

O

ef 1 ro 1 ro CO

O LO CNO 00 00 1 rH 1 03 CN CN o o\ ro in o 03 <N

C/5 su I1 O

CN 11 o H rH rH o rH rH rH

O c

_© £© 1 1

00 7 1 CN 1 ro CN

O

m CN 00 vo r~

CJ 1 rH 1 03 CN CN o CTt ro

O a\

a 1 O 1 • • • u 1 CN 1 o H H H

O

HH rH o c/5 3 1 1 s © c/5 C/5 e C/5 ©

CJ 2 11 rH 11 1 <D 1 rH tH 1 3 1 •H •H 1 Eli 1 o o rH 1 1 > w > •H

w 1 tj 1 rH 4J QJ QJ 4J 0) o QJ 1 C 1 aJ •H AJ O rH •H 4J u 1 qj 1 •H u QJ QJ u QJ rH 1 1 AJ •H rH rH •H •H rH QJ rH 1 u 1 c Sh rH QJ u u rH 3 QJ 1 0 1 QJ 4J •H U u u •H 03 M 1 AJ 1 T3 u 4J 3 QJ u 4J •rH 3 rH 1 u 1 •H 0) W u u £ QJ C/l U) 4J QJ 1 OJ 1 w rH •H a. QJ g H *H QJ QJ 0 1 CO 1 0) Cd a s o w Q OS 2 u 1 1 PS u ^ oo

n ^ co <—i

03 ^ 00 ^ 03 CN O H H H O rH ^ VD O CN CD O

03 00 ^ 03 CN O H H rH O rH ^ ^ h H CO

03 ^ r- ^ 03 O t—I

rH t—I O ^ ro 03 oo ^ h n o^ O rH H rH O ^ H (N 00 CO 03 ^ r'* ro 03 O rH rH rH O ^ O CTi CD CO ^ vd m o> O rH rH rH O ^ co cd in co

CTi rD CO

m

O rH rH rHO

rm

m oo

(J\ ro CO ro Oc O rH rH rH O ^ in O CN CD

o\

n cdn oc

O rH rH rH o ^ ^ h H CO

(Tim in

n (Ti

O rH rH rH

O ^ cn in oc co

(ji

m in (N

O rH rH rHO ^ H CN 00 CD oc n in cn oc O rH rH rH O

ro o o ^ co oc ro in CN CTi O rH rH rH O H OC 00 O 00 03 CN ^ CN 03 O rH rH rH O

CN OC CD CD 00

03 CN ^ H 03 O rH rH rH O o *—i

>» •H

w

4J 0)

O QJ ,

1 AJ U

QJ

U QJ rH *H •H rH QJ rH U u rH 3 QJ AJ 4J •H TJ w u 4J •H 3 rH 3 QJ 10 DO AJ QJ TJ tH •H 01 QJ o C Cd Q OS 2 u co

•H

AJ

(0 AJuoawc

(0

31

Motor

Gasoline

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.13

1.13

1.14

1.15

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.18

1.19
Table

Ca-3.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excludin: a

0) .3 -Ocauo

<u

c/3 3Oc

0>

X)c

.23SGCsu

<uc

a>

OJj

OX) « 3 e ’5 3 .3

*33 w> — M 3 [T O > M •*-> C/3 3 .2 S .3 2 >

g? «r ® * a

!2'EE

cf

4)Wc/3

C/3 VCC

m 4> .2 H x „ S g 3 .5

"o "o u S 3 *3 U — x

'E 3

is o

V) c/3 a «

iT £ u o

<s*

"a! Q- «

C/3

C S .3

1/3 "X | s s «

iS

U

*<

X « S3 £ I « „ X - S Qu < . 2- ^ rr\ X

ISo 1 rH | t- 00 VO ro cn cn CN cn cn t" 00 ro <n ro 1 rH 1 <n rH t—1 o cn CN o cn cn CN CN cn tH 1 O 1 • • • • • 11 CM 11 o rH tH tH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o tH 1 O 1 r- 00 VO tH m cn cn 03 CO r- tH tH cn h 1 tH 1 <n tH tH O cn CN ro o cn cn CN CN cn tH

4—* 1 O 1 • • • o 1 CN 1 o t—1

tH tH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o tH o 1 1

rH 1 Cn 1 00 00 VO tH o cn r- LD o m r~ cn 00 cn LD 1 O 1 cn tH tH O o CN ro O o cn CN ro tH cn t—1 n 1 O 1 • • • • • 1 CN 1 o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o tH 1 1 <n 1 00 1 00 O O VO in tH cn LD VO cn

>0 1 O 1 <n tH tH

OO CN roOO cn CN ro tH <n tH

[14 1 O 1 • • • 1 CN 1 o t—1

tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o tH

4-1 1 1 o 1 C" 1 00 VO ld

OO in ro tH cn LD cn

Cn 1 O 1 cn tH tH

OO CN roOOm CN ro tH cn tH

G 1 O 1 • • • • • •H 1 CN 1 o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o t—1 a 1 1 c

•H 1 V0 1 00 VO in

OO LD rHO cn CN cn

Cn 1 O 1 CT\ tH tHOO CN ro o O <n CN ro tH cn tH

CD 1 O 1 • • • PQ 1 CN 1 o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o tH tH t—1 o t—1 — 1 1

to 1 in i 00 ro rH

O ro 00 LDO cn CN cn o ro

a) 1 O 1 cn tH tH o O CN CN

OO cn CN CN tH o tH

u 1 O 1 • • • -H 1 CN I o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o t—1

tH tH tH tH T3 1 i GH 1 i 00 ro CN tH O tH VO LD O cn O C" ro O ro 1 O 1 cn tH tH O O CN CN O O cn CN CN tH O tH

CD 1 O 1 • • • • U 1 CN 1 o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH tH -H 1 1 vo cu 1 m i 00 CN CN tH O cn ro LD O cn 00 CN cn CN 1 O 1 cn tH rH O O tH CN O o cn H CN tH cn tH

r—1 1 O 1 • » CD 1 CN 1 o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o tH 3 1 1 ft 1 CN 1 00 tH CN CN O 00 O LD O <n 00 tH tH cn CN

Vo 1 O 1 cn tH tH

OO tH CNO

O cn tH CN tH cn tH

rtf 1 O 1 • ai 1 CN 1 o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o tH

>0 1 1

4-1 1 t—1 1 00

OO CNO VO [^ LD cn cn VO 00

O 00 tH o 1 O 1 cn tH tH O O tH tH O cn cn tH tH tH cn tH 1 1 O 1 • • • • T3 1 CN 1 o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o tH C 1 1 W 1 O 1 00 cn 00 CN cn ro LD o cn ro cn 00 O

T3 1 O 1 cn o O

O cn tH tHO o cn tH tH o cn tH

a) 1 O 1 • • • • 4J 1 CN 1 o rH tH tH o tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o tH

CJ 1 1 a) *m 1 CT\ 1 00 VO VO CN cn

O <n LD tH cn

OO 00 cn r* o 1 cn 1 cn O O O cn tH o O O cn tH tH O cn o u 1 CT\ 1 • • 04 11 rH 11 o \—1

rH tH o tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o tH 1 00 1 00 CN o r- VO ID tH cn r- VO r- cn LD 1 cn 1 cn o o O o o O O O cn o O o cn O 1 cn i • • • • • 11 tH 11 o tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o tH 1 r- i cn CN CN CN O ro O o ro o tH 1 cn i cn O O O O O o O O o o O O o O 1 cn i • • • • • 11 rH 1i o tH rH tH tH rH t—l

rH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH #

C/5 1 1—1 1 0) 11 i—1

rH rH CD

C/5 #

C/5 1 3 1 •H •H •H

GC c 1 [14 1 O o rH o i—1 O -rO *© 3 i 1 >1 U1 *H CO >i •H CO H H

*53d

0^-4 1 T3 1 rH •U <D 03 4J CD o 03 OJ 0) o 03 OJ o

a> I G 1 03 •H XJ

U

H •H 0J e> rH -H AJ

O 03 CO Ot mm i 03 1 -H O 03 03 O 03 r—i 03 U (tf i—0

OJ 03 c l 1 •U H i—1 H H - H H 03 H *H *H rH 03 H Vo 0 C/5 ctf l G 1 G 3-1 rH 03 U M H 3 03 Vo Vo iH 3 03 O D

C/5 t l O 1 CD 0-1 -H

M

U OJ -H T3 Vo OJ OJ •H T3 Vo ft Vo 1 AJ 1 T3 U 4J 3 <D U 0J -H 3 H CO u 4-' rl 3 1—1 CO 0 aj 1 U 1 -H a) w U OJ P CD CO CO 0J 03 3 CD u)

CO OJ (tf

G OJ

u s i ai 1 (0

H -H a, 03

g

H *H Q3 03 0 T3

H -H 0) 03 o 03O 1 C/3 1 CD W Q Gl 2 O W Q S U G U P PS 2 u Vo E 1 1 B3 O H E

-o

32
1 VO 1 r- 04

O o 00 in

O CO CO CN 04 cn rH 1 (N 1 G\ ro CN rH O in t" 04 c\ CO vo cn 04 1 O 1 • 11 04 11 O rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH 1 in i rH ro o vo O' 00 VO cn o cn o 1 03 1 m ro 04 rH O O' CN VO cn 04 1 O 1 o 1 03 1 O rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH o 1 1

rH 1 ^ 1 t" o 03 ro o O' ro r~ CO in vo 00 <nO 1 03 1 Cn ro 04 rH O r- CN a\ r~ in cn 04

II 1 O 1 • • • 1 04 1 O rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH

r-~ 1 1 o cn & r /-“N 1 ro i t— cn 04 ro

O in o ro O' 00 ro ro cn cn >> 3 3 S

*5 FY 11 04 1 O 1 Cn 04 03 rH o O' 03 CJ\ O' in cn rH MM 3 .3 1 03 11 O o o rH rH rH o rH

Cj *5 5* H-l 1 3 .— L. Cm 0 © > 1 04 1 O' CO rH ro o CO ro r- CO 04

O

m cn CO "3

cn 1 03 1 <n 03 04 rH o vo 03 c\ O^i C" in cn rH s £ 1 c 1 O 1 . • . • 3 •H 1 03 1 O rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH uo X > cc 1 1 w 5 3

•H 1 rH | r- c- rH 04 o CN in 03 r~ 00O ro cn

Cj cn 1 04 1 <n 04 04 rH

O vo 03 G\ G\ VO in cn rH

C/5 3 ’b 0) 1 O 1 • • • • o

~s. 3 u

—

m 1 04 1 o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH

O o rH rH rH o rH ^ gf 1 1 1 .2 >

cn 1 O 1 O' in o CNO o 04 rH 00 00 in rH cn r~ "3 0) 1 03 1 cn 04 CN rH o VO 04 <j\ cn ro vo in cn rH C ac ~ 1 s u 1 O 1 CJ •H 1 03 1 O rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH >1 V 1 1 x O h cH 1 cn 1 O' cn 04 o cn a> rH O' oc o CN cn cn VO 1 rH 1 COi 03 rH rH o ro ID 04 G\ cn ro VO cn rH s 3 flj 0) 1 O 1 • • o o 5 u 1 03 1 o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH •r «! 1 1 3c

5- 5/3 C CJg

a

a. 1 00 1 t-~ ro cn rH o r- rH O' 00 in <n cn in s “ 3 1 rH 1 CJ\ CN rH rH o ro in 04 c\ o\ ro m cn rH * “ T—1 1 O 1 • • • "3 •2 H <D3

fc 1 04 1 o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH

a

i>

X

II 3 1 r~ i C" CN CO rH

O inO O' 00 vo in 00 o a 1 tH 1 cn 04 rH rH o ro in 03 cn ro in cn rH SIexc 3 1

(0

0) >* 111 O 1 03 11 o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH 5 c W 1 4-4 1 vo i r~ rH 00 rH o 04 O O' 00 CN 00 3 — X 0 1 rH 1 cn CN rH rH O ro uo CN <T\ cn ro in cn rH u t- 1 1 O 1 • • • • • - ©

T3C 11 04 11 o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH

O o rH rH rH o rH ^ 73 W

C/5

r

X I in i C" rH C" rH o ro G\ on 00 rH rH CN CO ro

CJ ** 3 T3 1 rH 1 <T\ 04 rH rHO ro rH cn ro in cn rH «T £ 0) 1 O 1 • • "3 a ©

4J 1 04 1 O rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH 3 3 X u 1 1 £ 3 0) OJ X 3

*ro 1 C 1 VO

O CO 00 <n CN 00 vo 00 t"- rH cn 00 ro

;j o 1 rH 1 CP\ CN rH o cn ro rH CT\ cn ro ro cn rH u

Q*

Q

®

aa 11 O I 04 1 o rH rH rH o rH rH rH

O o rH rH rH o rH - 3 1 1 "33 S •£ 1 ro 1 in G\ vo in 00 O VO ro CJ\ vo cn O' CN 00 ro Cm = 1 3 3 t u < X 1 rH 1 cn rH rH o cn ro rH a\ cn CN ro cn rH o«4uV 1111 O 1 04 11

04 1 o

vo

rH

<n

rH

VO

rH

O

CO

rHorH rHo o

<J\ o

vo

rH

cn

rH

in

rH oo

rH

ro cJ a 3 fe 1I rH 1 O 1 cn rH rH O cn ro rH <T\ cn CN 04 o rH eu 1 z 11 03 11 o rH rH rH o rH rH rH O o rH rH rH rH rH 3C <O 5/3

j-. i1 rH 11 w 1 <D 1 rH rH rH a; 3 * Cfl m 'SI 1 3 1 •H *H •H C c C am • mm 1 bw 1 o o rH o rH O H u .2 5 1 1 >1 cn > cn >1 •H cn •H rH rf sx ^ i T3 1 i—i

4J ai 3 jj a; o 3 4J <1) o 3 4J o ° tT i a 1 -H 4J O rH -H 4J U rH •H 4J O 3 cn 3 06 - 1 ro 1 *H u (0 3 U 3 rH 3 U 3 rH 44 3 o =« 3 g " 1 1 4-1 •H rH i—i

•H •H rH 3 rH * H -H rH 3 rH

M

U

y l l-i 1 c 'H rH (0 o iH rH 3 3 4 H rH 3 3 O 1 0 1 0) 4J •H *4 u 4J -H T3 Wi 4-1 4J *H T3 4 a

M 2 s b 1 u 1 T3 U 4J 3 0) U 4J •H 3 rH cn u «u •H 3 rH cn O 3 l u 1 -H a> m u 4J £ (1) W cn 4-) 3 3 (1) cn cn 4J 3 c 44 — CJ ^ i <u 1 W rH *H a (0 £ rH -H Q) 3 0 T3 rH -H <D 3 O 3 0 1 M 1 0) Cd Q 4 s o W Q a 2 U C W Q a 2 U 2 i 1 a: u M

33
1 \—1 1 r- 00 00 00

m CN CN in cn CN in CN o 1 T—1 1 o CN rH cn O m O o O CN rH O tH 1 O 1 • • • 11 CN 11 rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH 1 O 1 VO LT) ro 00 in cn rH ro in O rH ro O CN 1 rH 1 O CN rH cn O m ro O O O ro rH O rH 1 O 1 • • • • O 1 CN 1 rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH tH rH o 1 1

rH 1 CT> 1 VO CN r- 00 rO ro in cn 00 rH o cn 1 O 1 o CN rH cn o ro ro O O O CN ro rH o rH n 1 O 1 • • • • 1 CN 1 rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH 1 1 (T\ 1 00 1 VO rH rH vo r- O in cn rH ^ VO in cn tH CN

>< 1 O 1 O CN rH cn o ro ro cn

O

O CN roO

O rH

tH 1 O 1 • • • 1 CN 1 tH rH rH o rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH

M—1 1 1 o 1 r- 1 VO o O r* O' cn ro o cn in in 00 cn CN

tn 1 o 1 o CN rH <T> o CN ro o cnO CN roO cn rH

0>

C 1 o 1 • • • a •H 1 CN 1 rH rH rH O rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH >> g 1 1 •t=i g %3

•H 1 VO 1 VO

OO 00 00

O

O r* vo in CN r- 00 CN

Cn 1 o 1 O CN rH cnO CN roO cnO CN ro o cn rH

0) 1 o 1 • • • o 'm

PQ 11 CN 1| rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o tH s c CO 0) 1 LD 1 VO 00 cn 00 00 vo 00 <-H r- vo ro cn 00 cn rH u c QJ 1 O 1 O rH O cn o CN CN O cn O CN CN o cn rH © o U 1 O 1 • • • • >> •H 1 CN 1 rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH £

T3G 1 1

a?

#N

H 1 1 VO VO r- cn 00 vo CN r- VO rH VO r- 00 tH

C/3 c 1 o 1 O rH

O cnO CN CNO cnO CN CN o cn tH 3 ,_r o a) 1 o 1 • e -oc

CO 0X1 * .s

u

*HG 11 CN 11 rH rH rH o t—1 rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH 3 j- Ch 1 cn 1 VO VO r- rH 00 CN ro ro r- VO O ro 00 00 O

sc 2 1 o 1 O rH o O o CN CN o cn

O CN CNO cn tH =e

"e_o

cs 4*3 _C G eS

Fuel 1111 o

CN

CN 1111

rH

in

rH

LD

rH

VO

rH

rH

rH

rrH

rH

rHOrH o rH rH

in cn

rHO

tH

00 o

00

rH

cn •w o 3 G 1 o 1 o rH O O o CN CN o cn O rH CN o cn o C3 C g » 03

d) 11 o

CN 11 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH tH o rH

a - § 1 1 1

13u

•1

a

G 0) of 11 t—1 o 11 04 13 90 rHO 90 19 rH 04 94 04 17 17 07 98 80

at

u u> i T3G 1 o 1 • • • 3

0) <2

O 11 CN 11 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH

m 3 O

W

od 1 O 1 ro rH CN in VO ro ro

m r- r- VO

g;

U -s Tl 1 O 1 o tH

O o o rH rH o cnO rH rH o cn

O

d) 1 O 1 3 3 « 4J 1 CN 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH J3 C S O ^ o

d) 1 1 X .2 £ n 1 03 1 CN 00 ID rH CN

O ro CO rH o VO r*

a>

u <U 0 1 cn 1 O

O o O o rH rH o cn

O rH rH o cn o

c/3 < z g

&4 11

CT\ rH 11 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH tH o rH rH rH tH o rH

0)CJ CO 3 1 1 3 J* H3

c/3 r?j 1 00 1 O VO ro CN CN cn vo vo rH cn VO VO 00 cn s C3 > 1 cn 1 o O o O O o O O cn O O o o cn o

QJ 1 cn 1 • a> Sz 11 rH 11 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH tH o rH

*Ea ^ C8 1 1 O CN rH

O in ro ro o in ro CN cn rH

C

H 1 cn 1 O

OOO o o o O cn o o o O cn o

"a?

O C® •5 w 1 cn 1 3 OX) c 1 t—1 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH tH o rH

5*- <y o 1 1 -a

a> * 2 ^-» o 1 1 V e •£ 1 1 •o* § <2 1 d) 1 rH rH rH <D U U 2 1 G 1 •H •H •H c C

fiw 1 1 o o rH o rH o •H 1 1 >i 01 >1 •H 01 >, H 01 •H rH

.* 1 T> 1 rH •U d)

m 4J ai o <0

u d) o 03

U o 1 G 1 <0 •H u o r~H •H JJ o rH •H U o <0 (/) « 1 (0 1 •H u (0 m u rH 03 O 03 rH U 03 u 1 1 4J -H 1—1 rH •H l—1

(0 rH •H •H rH 03 rH

u

O 1 G 1 G u rH fO o G rH G (0 G G G 03 o

<u 1 0 1 d>U •H

GG •U •Hn

G o U *H T3

G

a

U

C5 1 4J 1 n

V

U

G d)

O 4J •H

G rH V)

U JJ •H

G rH 0) o 1 u 1 •H d) 01 CD •U £ d) 01 01 iJ 03 G di oi a u 03 c U

H 1 d) 1 01 rH •H 04 fO

g rH •H d)

AO T> rH *H d) 03

O 0) o 1 cn 1 d> M Q J 2 O w Q cn 2 U c U1 Q OC 2 u u >: 1 1 u M

34
1 VO 1 o Cn LD CN ID o <J\ 00 00 CN r- 1 CN 1 rH ro cn O rH LD tH o o Ni ro O tH 1 O • 11 CN 1 rH 1 rH rH rH tH rH tH rH rH tH tH tH tH rH rH 1 LD 1 O r- m CN n ld G\ ** 00 LD VO CN r-~ 1 CN 1 rH CO CN O rH id r- O O O r- ro O rH 1 O | • • * o 1 CN 1 rH rH rH tH tH tH tH rH tH tH rH rH tH tH rH o 1 1 t—1 1 1 O vo ro CN CN CN G\ mi <T\ vo CN LD CN vo 1 CN 1 rH CO CN O rH ld r- O O O r> ro O tH

II 1 O • • • 1 CN 1 rH rH rH tH t—1

rH rH tH tH rH rH rH rH rH rH 1 1 cJ <n LD a. 1 ro 1 O in cn CN O O 00 Ni CTi LD o ro CN >> 1 (N 1 tH CO CN O tH id r- O o O t" ro O rH

fo 1 O • • • • 0=3 1 CN 1 rH tH tH rH rH tH rH rH tH tH rH tH rH

0> 4-1 1 1 2 0 1 CN 1 O rtf (N CO CN cr» 00 cn ro CN CN rtf •v cn 1 cs 1 rH CO CN O t—1

LDOO o rtf VO ro

O tH s a 1 o | • • • 3 •H 1 CN 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH tH rH tH rH rH rH tH rH rH uo•t-l G 1 1 •H 1 rH1 1 o m rH CO CN r- nc a> CN LD tH CN rtf Q

QJ

C/3 01 1 CN 1 rH CO CN

O tH VO o O o rtf VO ro

O tH

a) 1 o • • • CQ 1 CN 1 rH rH rH t—1

tH tH tH tH rH tH tH tH rH tH rH

C/5 OX) 1 1 3 3

*2 cn ro CD 1 O 1 o CN O CN CN LD CN Ni <T\ O CN CN

B £ Q) 1 CN 1 rH CO CN

O tH ^ VO o O

O rtf vo CN

O tH 3 o U 1 O | • • • • • 0) •H 1 CN 1 rH rH rH tH rH tH tH tH tH tH t 1 rH tH tH tH >4 ,a £

"0s 1 1

rs

H 1 <n 1 O rH

O CN CN ^ G\ VO CT\ CP\ 00 CN CN

x—'N 3 1 CO CN

O tH LD

OO

O ro LD CN

O t—1 s .=r o a) 1 O . _© 3 OX) 0 1 CN 1 rH tH rH t—1 tH rH tH tH rH rH tH rH tH rH rH £ .3

*H

>H c « JS CU 1 CD 1 O o <n tH CN cn r- VO <y\ r~ p' r- CN CN c 53 £ 1 rH 1 rH CO rH O rH id O O o ro LD CN O rH ” 3 r—1 1 O • • • 13u 4* aj3 11 CN 1 rH 1 rH rH tH tH rH tH rH rH tH rH tH rH rH tH

0)e 3

l- "5

Cl, 1 r* 1 O 00 00 rH CN

O 5J1 VO <J\ VO rtf LD CN tH

0) o 2 u 1 t—1 1 rH CN rH o t—1 ^ ID

O o O ro LD CN o tH

OX)

OX) C 3 B,

(0

Q) >h1 111 o

CN 1 rH 1 rH rH tH tH rH tH rH rH «—1

rH rH tH tH tH 3 © •- OX) 3 4)

4-1 1 VO 1 O r- 00 tH CN cn CN LD (7\ rtf CN rtf CN

O 3 o 1 tH 1 rH CN rH O tH ro in O O O ro LD CN O rH “X

0)

u

u

a o End- 1i1 O

CN 1 rH 1 rH rH rH rH tH rH rH tH rH tH rH rH tH tH 3 © 1 ID 1 o VO o O CN 00 O LD cn ro O ro CN O

V CJ •- Tl 1 t—1 1 rH CN rH

O tH ro LD

OO o ro LD CN

O rH

u . X <11 1 O • • • • 3

_s 3 © 3 3 O ^

4-1 U

Q) 11 CN 1 rH 1 rH tH rH rH rH tH rH rH tH tH tH rH rH tH

u

N £ •m 1 1 <n 00 VO

O CN cn oo NT Nf 00 rtf 00 rH CN

O

'u a> 0 1 rH 1 O CN rH o tH ro ^ o o o ro CN

O rH 'Ea < z 3

a. 11 o

CN 1 rH rH tH tH rH tH t—1 tH tH tH tH rH tH rH tH , 3 3

4J .* "O 2 3 3 > 1 ro i r~ r- vo cn Cn r- vo ro ID VO CN ID cn ro

O 2 1 rH 1 o CN rH CTi O ro ^ o o o ro rtf tH o t—1

•aV•to* Sz 111 O

CN 1 rH 1 rH tH o tH tH tH rH tH rH tH tH rH tH rH

a5 ^ 3~ 1 CN i t" ^ ID 00 (T\ CN ID LD

O rji r- ro o

*3*

i- o.

s2 £ © 2

OX) 3 111

rHO

CN 1 o 1 rH

CN rH

rH rH

(nO

O

rH

ro ^

rH tH ot—1 O

tH

O

rH

ro

rH t 1

tH

tH

O

rH

tH

tH

a> o 1 1 -d “ s <u C/5 3 3 © | 3 3 J3 s *

cj 2 1 13C

a)3 11 rH-H

rH•H

rH•H 30)3 o h 1 o O rH o rH 0 •H u i > CD > •H CD > -H CD -H rH

9S T) 1 rH 4J 0) (0 4J <u o ft) 4-1 ai o 3 4-1 o 3 1 It) -H 4J o 1—1 •H 4J U rH •H 4J 0 (d CD ft <0 1 -H U <d <d u (d rH id CJ it rH 4J Rj u 1 4-1 -H rH 1—1 •H •H i

i (d rH -H •rH rH 3 rH 3 0 3 1 3 3 rH (0 u 3 rH 3 a) V4 M rH 3 (0 O

0)

O 1 ID 4J *H

uu 4J •H TJ

u 4-1 4-1 •H Tl 3 a 3

4-1 l T)

O 4J 3 0) o 4J -H 3 rH CD CJ 4J •H 3 rH CD

O

<3

u i -h a) CD 0 4-1 £ 0) CD CD 4-1 it 3 ai CD CD 4J (0 3 4J 0) 1 U) rH •H C^r (d £ 1—1 •H 0) It o Tl rH •rH ai rd o <d o H w i a) u a j 2 o w Q Pi 2 u 3 w a Pi 2 u 3 2 t oi u H e35
Table

Ca-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type. 1 tH 1 a cry cry ay 00 r- ro ro o 00 00 00

a CN 1 rH 1 CT» rH rH a a CN O O a CN r—1 a rH 1 O 1 • 11 CN 11 o r—1

rH o o rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH o rH 1 O 1 o cry CTy 00 a r- rH CN o 00 00 CN LD a CO 1 rH 1 o rH rH a a CN O O a CN rH a rH 1 O 1 • O 1 CN 1 rH rH rH o o rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH o rH O 1 1

rH 1 CTy 1 o cr» 00 00

a ra rHOa 00

O COa 1 O 1 o rH rH a a CN ro O o a CN r—1 a rH

ii 1 O 1 • • 1 CN I rH rH rH o o r

—1rH rH rH o rH rH rH o rH

r- 1 1 a 1 00 1 O r- VO 00

a VO rHOa LO 00 rH

a 1 O 1 O rH rH a a CN ro O o a CN ro rH a rH

CH 1 O 1 • • 1 CN 1 rH rH rH o o rH rH rH r—1 o rH rH rH o rH

M-l 1 1 o 1 r- i O r- VO 00

a rHaa LDO 00 CO

cn 1 O 1 o r

—1

rH

aa CN ro o a

a CN CO rH

a rH c 1 O 1 • • • • 1 CN 1 rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH 0 1 i c

•H 1 vo 1 O VO VO 00

a ro OO rH 00a roO r-» CO

Oi 1 O 1 O rH rHaa CN roOaa CN ro rHa rH

(1) 1 O 1 • • • CQ 11 CN 11 rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o o rH rH rH o rH

co 1 LD 1 O LOa o rHa CNa o CNOOa CN 0 1 O 1 o rH rH a o CN CN O a o CN CO rH a rH o 1 O 1 • -H 1 CN 1 rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH T) 1 1 CH 1 c i o CO o O O ro CO O o 00 a 00 CN 1 O 1 o rH rH o o CN CN O a O CN CN o a rH 0 1 O 1 • • • • • u 1 CN 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH *H 1 1

i-i Dj 1 m i o co CN o o 00 ro 00 o a in

a r* rH 1 O 1 O rH rH O O rH CN O a O rH CN o a rH

t—1 1 O 1 • • • • • 0) 1 CN 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH vH rH rH o rH 0 1 i 1 CN 1 CJy CN CN rH O r- rH 00 o 00 rH a 00 rH u 1 O 1 cry rH rH O o rH CN o cry o rH CN o a rH

id 1 O 1 • • • • <D 1 CN 1 o rH rH rH rH

r

—1

rH rH

O rH rH rH rH o rH

>4 1 1

M-l 1 rH 1 CTy rH rH rH o VO r- o vo 00 00 rO 0 1 O 1 cry rH rH O o rH rH o a o rH rH O a rH 1 1 O 1 • • • • T) 1 CN 1 o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH r—1 o rH 0 1 1 u 1 O 1 cr> CT» cry rH o ro ro r* o r- r- a n 1 O 1 cr> O o- O O rH rH o a o rH rH o a o

0) 1 O 1 • • • • 4-> 1 CN 1 o rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH

01

u 1 1 OX) a) CQ *ro 1 a i cry VO rH

OOO ro r- o O

O 00 VO

0>> 0

>H 11 a i a i

CTy o O

O o rH rHOa o rH rH o a

O <

a. 1 rH 1 O rH rH rH rH rH rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH

C/3 1 00 1 cry ID rH o r- VO

a o NO VOa LD

03 1 cr> i cry

O o O o o OOa o o OO

aO

w 1 Ch 1 • • • C/3 oV 11 rH 11 o rH rH rH rH

r—1rH rH o rH rH rH rH o rH 1 r- i cry CN CN o o CN ro a O CO CO cry rH "SP 111

cr* 1 CTy 1 rH 1

cry o O

rH

O

rH

O

rH orH orH

O

rH

O

rH

ao O

rH orH

O

rH

O

rH

ao O

rH

rH 11 a> 1 1 1 rH rH 3 1 •H •H -H

Pn 1 o o i—1 o i—i 1 co >1 •H CO >1 -H CO TJ 1 i—i

4-1 <11 <d

u CD o id 4-1 a> o id

C 1 (0 -H 4-1U f—l

•H 4-1

a rH •H 4-1

O

(0 1 H

U Id id (J id rH id o id i—i 1 4-1 •H i—1 rH •H •rH rH Id rH •rH •H rH id i—i 1 a p4 r—1

<dO •—1 3 u )H rH 3 •d

O 1 a) 4-1 -rH Vh >H 4-1 •H T3

u 4J 4-1 •H P M

4-1 1 TJ

O 4J 3 aiu 4-1H 2 I—1

CO

u pH 3 rH o 1 •rH 0) CD O 4-1 g ai CO CO 4J id 3 0) (/) (0 4-1 id

a> 1 CO rH *«H a. id

g i—!

•H a) <TJ o P rH •H ai id 0

C/i 1 QJ

W

Q Z O

w

a os 2 uG pa

Q os Z u 1 OS u H

36

Transportation
Table

Ca-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

(excluding

general

inflation),

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

a>w>«u<

VIV2

-a

a>GD 1 VXD 1 o CN CD

O cn CO cn C" cn 00 00 CNO 00 1 CN 1 o CO CN tH <n d< r~ tH cn cn 00 LD cn 1 O 1 • 11 CN 11 tH rH tH tH O tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o 1 in i O tH r- O cn LD VO VO cn 00 VO cn CO 00 1 CN I O CO CN tH <n r- tH cn cn r- >d< cn 1 O 1 • • • o 1 CN 1 tH tH rH tH o tH tH tH o o tH rH tH o o 1 1

rH 1 1 O

O VO CJ\ CD ro VO cn 00 LD vo VO 00 1 CN 1 O CO CN O cn r~ tH cn cn r- "d1 cn

II 1 O 1 • • • 1 CN 1 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o

r- 1 1 cn 1 ro 1 O

C

n

VXD OD cn CN tH LD cn 00 ro LD 00 1 CN 1 O CN CN O cn r~ tH cn cn cn

[H 1 O 1 • • • 1 CN 1 tH tH tH rH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o

H-l 1 1 0 1 CN 1 O CD in <n cn

O 00 in cn CO CN tH ro CO

cn 1 CN 1 O CN CN

O <71 vo tH cn <71 'd' r~ "d* Ol c 1 O 1 • • • •H 1 CN 1 rH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o d 1 1 d

•H 1 rH 1 O r- 00 cn cn VO in <71 00O 00 rH 00

Oi 1 CN 1 O CN CN o cn ro VO tH cn cn "d" VO <d< cn

QJ 1 O 1 • • • m 1 CN 1 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o —' 1 1

U) 1 O 1 O VO 00 <n r- ro «d< <71 00 <71 LD o 00

QJ 1 CN 1 O CN CNO cn ro vo tH cn cn ro vo -d* cn

O 1 O 1 • • • • •H 1 CN 1 tH tH tH tH o rH tH tH o o tH tH tH o n 1 1 aH 1 cn 1 O m CO 00 cn VO tH cn 00 r~ CN cn 00 1 tH 1 O CN CN O cn ro VO tH cn cn ro vo ro cn

qj 1 O 1 • t • u 1 CN 1 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o o tH rH tH o

*H 1 1 sh cu 1 CD 1 O CN r- cn v* 00 ro cn 00 vo

O t- 00 1 tH 1 O CN CN o cn ro LD tH <71 <71 ro vo ro cn 1—1 1 O 1 • • • ai 1 CN 1 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o 0 1 1 1 r- i O CO CN r- cn ro LD ro cn 00 r- ID 00 1 tH 1 O CN CN o cn ro LO tH cn <n ro LD ro cn

QJ 1 O 1 • • • •

(1) 1 CN 1 tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o 1 1

<4-1 1 VXD 1 O CN tH O' cn rH ro CN cn 00 ro LD di 00 0 1 tH 1 O CN CN O cn ro LD tH cn cn ro LD ro cn 1 1 O 1 • • • • 1 <N 1 tH t—1

tH tH o tH tH tH o o tH tH tH o d 1 1 w 1 LO 1 O tH tH r- cn O O CN <n 00 tH CN CN 00

TJ 1 tH 1 O CN CN o cn ro uo tH cn cn ro LD ro cn

0) 1 O 1 • • • • JJ 1 CN 1 tH tH tH tH o tH tH rH o o rH tH tH o O 1 1 0

*m 1 ^ i cn tH tH LD 00 o cn o cn tH

O cn 00 0 1 tH 1 cn CN CN O cn ro d< rH cn cn ro LD CN cn u 1 O 1 • • • • cm 11 CN 11 o tH t—1

tH o rH tH tH o o tH tH tH o 1 m i CD O ON (N 00 00 00 O' o vo O cn td« 00 1 rH 1 CT1 CN tH o cn CN o o cn ro CN cn 1 O 1 • • • • 11 CN 11 o tH rH tH o tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o 1 CN 1 CD o <71 tH 00 oo VO in o t" cn VO i—1

cn 1 rH 1 G\ CN tH O cn CN o O cn CN 'd1 CN cn 1 O 1 • • • • 1 <N 1 o tH tH tH o tH tH tH tH o tH tH tH o o

CN

rH 11 a) 1 rH rH rH d 1 •H •H 1 o o rH o rH

T> 1 w >1 CO >i •H (A 1 rH U Q) <0 4J 0) o <0 4J 0) o QJ d 1 <0 •H 4J u 1—1

*H 4J

u rH •H 4-1 o <0 1 •H <0 <0 u <0 rH <0 u QJ rH 1 4-1 -H 1—1 1—1

-H •H 1—1

<0 rH •H

H rH QJ rH

S-l 1 d ^1 rH <0 o u rH

d <0

u tH rH

d QJ 0 1 Q) •U •H S-l u 4-1 •H TJ 4J 4-1 •H TJ )H

4-> 1 -d

O 4J

d QJ

u 4J -«-i

d rH

w

u JJ -H

d

u 1 •H QJ

W

a 4-1 £ a)

WW 4-1 <0

d 0)

wW 4-1 <v 1 cn r—1

•H cu QJ £ i—i

•H 0) nj

O T3 rH • H 0) QJ

w 1 Q)

wa dJ s O

wa OS 2 U

C

u

Q OS z 1 Pi u H

37

Transportation

Motor

Gasoline

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.12

1.13

1.13

1.14

1.15

1.15

1.16

1.17

1.18

1.18

1.19
Table Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0

Distillate Oil 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0 .

8

0 .

8

LPG 1.1 0.7 0 .

8

0.2 0.4 0.4

Natural Gas 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 1.9 0 .

1

0.1

Commercial

Electricity -0.7 -0 .

1

-0.2 -0.4 0 .

0

0.0

Distillate Oil 2.5 1.4 0.9 0 .

5

1.0 1 .

0

Residual Oil 2 .

8

2.7 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.6

Natural Gas 0.7 -0.7 -0.4 2.2 0.2 0.3

Coal -0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 0.0 0 .

0

Industrial

Electricity -0.2 -0.0 -0.3 -0 .

5

0 .

0

0.0

Distillate Oil 2 .

6

1.4 0.9 0 .

5

1 .

0

1.0

Residual Oil 3.1 2.9 1.8 1.3 1 .

6

1.6

Natural Gas 1 .

1

-0.2 0.3 2.9 0 .

8

0.9

Coal -1.6 0.1 0.5 -0.4 0 .

0

0.0

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 1.7 0.6 0 .

1

-0.2 0.6 0.6

38
Table Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,

Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity -0 .

8

-0.3 -0 .

1

-0.1 0 .

0

0.0

Distillate Oil 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.9

LPG 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 0 .

6

0.6

Natural Gas 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 1.8 0.4 0.4

Commercial

Electricity -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0 .

0

Distillate Oil 3.2 1.5 1.0 0.6 1.1 1.2

Residual Oil 3.1 2.6 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7

Natural Gas 0.9 -0.2 -0.1 1.9 0 .

5

0 .

5

Coal -1.7 0.3 0.6 -0.3 0 .

0

0.0

Industrial

Electricity -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 0.0 0.0

Distillate Oil 2 .

8

1.4 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.1

Residual Oil 3.0 2 .

6

1.7 1.5 1.7 1.7

Natural Gas 1.1 0.4 0.7 3.0 1 .

0

1.1

Coal -1.0 0.3 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.0

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 1.8 0.6 0.2 -0.2 0.6 0.6

39
Table Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity -0.2 0.0 -0 .

1

-0 .

1

0 .

0

0 .

0

Distillate Oil 1.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0 .

8

0 .

8

LPG 1.6 0 .

8

0 .

5

0.2 0.5 0 .

5

Natural Gas 0.7 -0.2 0.1 1.8 0.2 0.3

Commercial

Electricity -0.7 0.1 -0 .

1

0 .

1

0 .

0

0.0

Distillate Oil 2.9 1.5 1.0 0 .

6

1 .

1

1.1

Residual Oil 2.7 2.6 1.7 1.4 1 .

6

1.6

Natural Gas 1.4 -0.1 0.4 2.2 0.4 0.4

Coal -0.7 0.1 -0.2 -0.5 0.0 0 .

0

Industrial

Electricity -0.5 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Distillate Oil 2.8 1.4 0 .

9

0.6 1.1 1.1

Residual Oil 2.9 2 .

6

1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7

Natural Gas 2.9 0.8 1.2 3.3 1.2 1.2

Coal -1.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0 .

1

0.0

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 1.9 0 .

6

0.2 -0.2 0.6 0.6

40
Table Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii,

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.6 0 .

0

0.0

Distillate Oil 2.6 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.8 0.8

LPG 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5

Natural Gas 0.4 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4

Commercial

Electricity 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0

Distillate Oil 3 .

6

1.6 1.5 0.4 1 .

1

1.1

Residual Oil 2.8 2.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 1 .

6

Natural Gas 0.8 -0.6 -0.1 0.8 0.4 0.4

Coal -1.9 0.9 1.2 0.1 0 .

0

0 .

0

Industrial

Electricity 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.7 0 .

0

0 .

0

Distillate Oil 3.3 1.4 1.2 0.4 1 .

1

1.0

Residual Oil 2.9 2.6 1.8 1.3 1.6 1.6

Natural Gas 1.3 0 .

1

1 .

0

1.7 1 .

1

1.0

Coal -1.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0 .

0

0 .

0

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 1.5 0.9 0.2 -0.5 0 .

6

0 .

6

41
Table Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Percentage change compounded annually

Sector and Fuel

1997

to

2000

2001

to

2005

2006

to

2010

2011

to

2015

2016

to

2020

2021

to

2025

Residential

Electricity -0.2 0 .

1

-0 .

0

0 .

1

0 .

0

0.0

Distillate Oil 1.9 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.8 0 .

8

LPG 1.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0 .

5

0 .

5

Natural Gas 0.4 -0.4 -0 .

1

1.6 0.3 0.3

Commercial

Electricity -0.5 -0.0 -0.2 0.1 0 .

0

0.0

Distillate Oil 2.7 1.4 0 .

9

0.5 1 .

1

1.1

Residual Oil 2.9 2 .

6

1.8 1.3 1.6 1.6

Natural Gas 0.9 -0.4 -0.0 1.9 0.4 0.4

Coal -1.0 0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0

Industrial

Electricity -0.2 -0.0 -0.3 -0 .

1

0 .

0

0.0

Distillate Oil 2.9 1.4 1.0 0.5 1.1 1 .

1

Residual Oil 3.0 2.7 1.7 1.4 1.7 1 .

6

Natural Gas 2.0 0 .

5

0.9 2 .

9

1.1 1.1

Coal -1.0 0.3 0 .

1

-0.3 0 .

0

0.0

Transportation

Motor Gasoline 1.8 0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.6 0.6

42
D. Factors for Updating Appliance Label Values

(In Compliance With the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for

New Federal Residential Buildings (10 CFR 435))

Compliance with energy conservation performance standards for new federal residential buildings requires

calculation of a building's energy costs, including appliance costs. For this purpose, label values for gas and

electric water heaters are given in the federal micro-computer program, COSTSAFR, as $176 and $406

per year, respectively, in 1987 dollars, and for refrigerator/freezers, as $61 per year in 1987 dollars. To

adjust 1987 prices to 1996 prices, multiply these 1987 label values by the factors below.

Table D. Factors for updating appliance label values from 1987 to 1996 dollars.

Fuel Factor

Gas 1.15

Electricity 1.14

Note: the author requests that users of this table notify him at spetersen@nist.gov [fax (301) 208-6936] if

this information is still needed for its intended purpose. If no response is received during FY 97 this table

will be dropped from future editions of this report.

43
PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE

SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS

This section presents tables of projected nominal (i.e., including inflation) fuel price indices for four fuels

in the residential sector and five fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 1996 through

2026. These price indices are based on the DOE energy price projections, reported in part I-B of this document, used to calculate the FEMP and OMB UPV* factors for energy costs. These tables are provided

as an update to similar tables originally published in Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy

Decisions (NBS SP 709).

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates of general

price inflation: 3, 4, 5, and 6%. Selection of these rates is intended in no way to suggest what actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates which are in current dollars, inclusive of general price

inflation. Current dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with discount rates which include

general price inflation (i.e., nominal or market discount rates).

The indices based on inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6% allow the analyst to perform evaluations based on

the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that changes the purchasing power of the dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private investment decisions, primarily

because it facilitates the treatment of taxes.

The indices in Tables S-l through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5

by means of the following equation:

I

s = Ic x(\ + g)» ,

where Is = index found in Tables S-l through S-5;

Ic = index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5;

g = annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

N = number of periods, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 1996.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

Suppose you wish to estimate the annual cost of natural gas for a house in Maryland in year 2000, given

the annual cost at beginning-of-year 1997 prices, and you expect an annual inflation rate of 3% per year. From table S-3, find the column with residential natural gas indices at an inflation rate of 3%; then locate

the index for the year 2000. This index is 1.15. Multiply the annual cost at the beginning-of-year 1997 price

to find the estimated annual cost at end-of-year 2000 prices.

If this annual cost in year 2000 prices is to be discounted to present value, you must use a nominal discount

rate that includes the same assumption with regard to general price inflation (3% in this example). To

obtain a present value cost over the entire study period, the present value calculations must be repeated for

each year that there are natural gas costs, and the results summed. (UPV* factors are not given for private sector use because of the large number of tables required to cover potential discount rates that might be

used by the analyst.) The BLCC computer program can perform LCC analyses using any inflation rate and

discount rate, in constant or in current (market) dollars. The DISCOUNT program, included with BLCC,

44
can compute UPV* factors based on DOE energy price escalation rates using any inflation rate and discount

rate. (See page v for more information on these programs.) Of course the private sector analyst may use

the UPV* factors reported in Part I, provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars and the desired

discount rate corresponds to the DOE or OMB discount rates used in Part I.

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B, Part I.

The data in the tables which follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average. Figure

B-l (page 13) shows the states belonging to each Census region. The four Census regions do not include

American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin

Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which are "reasonable under the

circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for guidance.

45
Table

S-l.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

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ov av o> o o o o

av av o o o o rH rH rH CN CN (N fN

'T in vo r* o o o o o o o o

fN (N fN (N

CO (TV

O

H

OO rH rH

O

OO

(N (N fN fN

(N

m in vo o o o o o o

(N fN fN (N fN (N

CD ON

O r-*

OOO

O

04 fN fN fN

OO

fN IN

47
Table

S-2.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

1

1

1

1 VO p O O'. r-~ in CO CM rH o O rH CO CO r—

1

CO r" CM CO VO O vo CO CN CO vo CM cr O

1 1 dP

VO o r—

1

CN CM m p in VO r" 00 cr. O rH CN p VO CO o CO in C" O CM in 00 rH p 00 rH VO

1 w

03

1 H rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CM CN CM CN CM CO CO co CO P P p P in in in VO VO

1 1 03

1 a 1 U in (N r* P O r- CO O *p rH (T> CO cr. rH in rH cr. r- CN 00 P CM rH O rH CO vo O VO

1 1 03 dP o rH rH CM co CO P in in vo r- 00 cr\ rH CM P in r- cr. O CM P VO 00 o CM p r- cr

1 r—i 1 DC in

1 03 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH 1—1 rH rH rH rH CM CN CM CM CM CM CO ro CO CO CO p p p p p

1 Vb 1 c

1 a 1 o

1 4J 1 •H P O P CT p cr. P <Ti <P cr. ^P o VO P CO CO in CO rH rH CN co in <T CO t"- rH VO CO

1 03 1 -U dP o r—

1

rH 1—1 CM CM CO CO ^P ^p in VO VO 00 cr. o rH CO P in vo r- 00 cr rH CM P in r"

1 2 1 03 p

1

1

1

1 rH

4-1 rH rH r—

1

t—1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CM CM CM CN CM CM CM CN CM CO CO CO CO CO

1

1

1

1 cH co r-* O in 00 CM in 00 CM in CO CM CM CO in p CO CN cr. VO CO O r" in CO CM o cr cr

1 1 dPro o O rH rH rH CM CM CM CO co CO p p in in VO 00 cr. <r> o rH CM CM co P in VO vo

1 1 I—1 CM CM CM CM CM CN CN CM CN CN o 1 1 £o o 1

1

1

1 1 C/3 03 c ii 1 1 CO 00 r- r r—

1

CM CM CO VO CO in r- vo CM cr. in p cr. 00 CM CO VO VO r~- r—

1

vo o vo

1 1 dP o (N m in VO r- 00 cr. CM CO in 00 o CM p vo cr p r" o P r" in o p s C/3 1 1 VO s c ON 1 1 rH rH rH rH rH r—

1

rH rH rH CM CM CM CM CM CM CO CO CO CO co p p p in in in vo vo r- r* o

u >

ba

1

1

1

1

1

1

03 •U r- VO P P P CO rH O O 'p CM rH VO 00 o CM vo in r- p CO CN CM p r- rH CO CM CN

1 1 03 dP o rH CN co P in VO r- 00 cr. O rH CN CO in VO cr. o CM p VO CO o CM in o CO VO s' £ o

1

1

1

LPG

1

1

1

DCG

in

rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CM CN CN CM CM CM CM CM CO co CO CO CO p p p p in in in

OX) OX) 1 1 O c 1 1 •H VO CO O cr. r- in rH 00 in vo CM CO o 00 r- in in 00 vo 00 o CO r- r—

1

vo CM CO in CO CN -3 1 1 4J dP o r—1 CM CM CO p in in VO 00 00 o O rH CM CO p in VO CO cr o CM CO in vo 00 o CN <y 3

.3

<y CO

1

1

1

1

03 P

CN CM CN CM CM CM CM CM CN CN CO CO CO co CO CO p p

§

<a Q

1

1

1

1

1

1

4bCM in rH r-* p rH r- rH VO CM o p 00 VO CM 00 CO cr. 00 CO rH cr r- vo in p p p p p in

C/3 a JS 1

1

1

1 dPco o r—

1

r—

i

CM CO CO P ^p in VO vo VO r- 00 00 cr. cr. O rH CN CM CO p in vo r- CO <r o rH

C/D 3o

Cfl©

1 1 <—

i

rH rH rH 1—

1

rH rH rH rH rH rH r—

1

rH rH r—

1

rH rH CM CM CN CN CM CM CM CN CN CN CM CO CO ew

t/i <u 3

1 M

8h

1

1

1 CT. cr 00 cr. o rH CM *P CM in rH cr* P r—

1

rH o CO VO rH <T cr rH in CM rH CM p VO C3 J= G 1 dP O CM co in VO r- 00 cr. CN P in cr. CO in O CM in cr <N VO O P 00 CO 00 $ Q rH 1 VO o O

<5

4> *c

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1

1

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rH

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rHP

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rH

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rH

r—

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rH

rH

rH

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CO

CN

CO

CN

in

CN

<T\

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CM

co

CO CO

rH

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r~

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P

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p

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p

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in

00

in

co

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t"-

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1 -U

0J

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_2

b£ —i« 1 r—

1

1 r—

1

rH rH i—

1

rH rH rH rH rH rH CM CM CN CM CM CM CM CN CO CO CO CO CO P p p p in in 1/3 ft 0/ 1 rH 1 G 5

s Q

3

ha

1

1 •HU

1

1 O•H r* P i—

1

cr. r- P O 00 VO in CO r—

1

CM O cr. cr. <J\ o CM p r" CM C" CM cr vo p CO CO p

1 C/3 1 U dP o CM CM co P in in VO r* 00 cr. O r—

1

.—

i

CM CO in VO CO O rH CO p VO 00 o CM p

.s u 1 H 1 03 P

c/T

4-> u 3 1

1 Q 1

1 rH

4b

1—

1

rH rH rH rH rH rH .—

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rH rH rH rH CN CM CM CM CM CN CM CN CM CO CO CO CO CO CO p p p

"3 oZ

03 >-

1

1

1

1 GH VO CN 00 P o VO r—

1

r* CM cr. •P O 00 co cr. VO CO O 00 vo in P CO CO p in vo r- cr. CN c 1 1 dP o I—1 r—

1

CM CO CO ^p in in VO C" 00 00 cr. O r—

1

rH CM co P in VO co <r o r—

1

CO

f-t, Cm 1 1 co o 1 1 rH rH rH rH 1—1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CM CN CM CM CN CM CM <N CM CN CM CO CO CO HH

'w'

C/3

l -o

1

1

1 Cb « 3 1 C

La X) w 1

1

1

1 in rH r- p o 00 in ^P CO CM P VO r* r- r- O O cr. VO in P in VO O p o 00 r- 00

<U 1 1 dP o rH rH CM CO CO 'p in VO r- 00 cr. o rH CM CO in r- 00 O CN P vo 00 rH CO vo 00 r—

1

p

OX) 0) OS Z <u -Wu

0)

1

1

1

1 >1

4J

1

1

1

1 03

vo

rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CM CN CM CN CN CN CO CO CO co CO P p p p in in

C/3 •—> 1 •H 1 4-3 P CT. P cr. P O VO CM cr. r- VO in CO O r- p CO rH CO vo <T CO CO CO cr vo p CO CO 3 o 1 U 1 03 dP o O t—

1

rH CM co CO •^P *<p in VO 00 cr. cr. o rH CM P in VO cr O CM CO in r" cr rH 3 o u 1 •H 1 DC in

c/3 C/3 Cu 1 Vb 1 rH rH rH i—1 rH rH r—

1

rH rH rH rH r—i rH r—

1

rH CM CN CN CN CM (N CM CN CO CO CO co co co P

C C/3 1 4J 1 G

0> CJ i

1

1 u

03

1

1 O

•H CO rH in 00 CO CM CM cr. VO rH VO rH in rH rH rH cr 00 vo in in P in in vo 00 o

1 rH 1 U dP O o rH t—i r—

1

CM CM CO CO P p in VO VO r- CO cr. O o r—

1

CM CO p in vo r-~ 00 cr rH

1 « 1 03 p

1

1

1

1 rH

4b

rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CM CN CN CN CM CN CN CN CN CN CO

1

1

1

1 cM CM in CO O CO VO cr. CM VO cr. P cr. CN in 00 o P rH r- CM 00 CO 00 P O VO CN 00 in CM

1 1 dP O o o rH rH rH rH CM CM CM CO CO P p P in in VO vo r- 00 00 cr O o rH rH CN CO

1

1

1

1

1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH »H rH rH rH CN CN CM CM CN CM

1

1

1 U r* 00 cn O rH CM CO N* in VO r* 00 cr* O rH CM CO P in VO r" CO cr o rH CN CO P in VO

1 03 O'. cr cr o O O O O o O o O o rH rH rH rH rH rH r—1 rH rH .

i CN CN CN CM CM IN CM

1 0) <r CT cr o O O o O o o o O o O O O O O o o o o o O O O O O O O

1 >H rH rH rH CM CM CM CN CM CM CM CM CM CN CM (N CM CN CN CN CM CN CN IN CN CN CN CM CM CM CN

48
1 1 dP LO o CN ON VO o CN ON ID

O ro

m VOD CO ro tH ON ON o CN VO tH rD ID 1 1 a; 4J

03

VO

O tH tH t—1CN CD in VO VO r- ON tH CN ro VO ON tH CN ON tH O’ VO ON CN

D 11 11 «H tH tH tH tH rH tH tH tH tH tH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN ro ro ro ro ro O’ O’ O’ O’ in in 11 11 cc dP 00 CT» LD rH 00 ID ON ON CN tH VO ID tH ID ID ID r- O ^J1 CO ro CO ID CN O ON ON 1 1 c LD O O O t—1

CN CN CD CD LD VO r- CO ONO tH CN ro LD CO ON tH CN O’ VO CO ON t—i 1 rH 1 0 1 rO 1 •H <H tH tH rH tH rH rH tH tH tH tH rH tH tH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN ro ro ro ro ro m O’ 1 0 1 4J 1 u 1 f0 1 1 rH dP m VO VO tH D tH VO CO VO CO D D rH VO tH CN CO CN tH O ON 00 CO ON ON tH CN O' 1 1 4-1 O' o O O t—1

tH CN CN CN ro ro

D VO r- r- 00 ON ONO tH CN ro ro O’ in VO r- ON o tH 11 11 M rH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH rH rH tH tH tH tH t—i

tH tH tH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CNmm 11 11 dP CN m VO O CO ON D ID O CO ID ON ro in ro VO O LD O VO tH ro ON ID CN 00 D 1 1 m O O O O tH tH tH CN CN ro ro in in VO VO r* CO 00 ON ON o o tH CN CN m 111 111

«H t—1

tH tH tH rH tH rH tH rH tH tH tH tH rH rH tH 1-1 rH tH tH tH CN CN CN CN CN CN 111 1 dP CO CN tH CO VO D D ID VO ON ro O ON CN C" ro ID ON O’ tH O tH ro ON VO VO ON 1 1

Rate

VO

O tH CN

mD VO CO ONO tH rom VO ON tH VO CO tH O’ rO ro VO

O O' 00 1 1 tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH rH t—1

tH CN CN CN CN CN CN ro ro ro ro O’ O’ LD ID ID VO VO VO 1 (/) 1 1 03 1 dP r- ID O r* o tH 00 VO ro ["- tH CO r- vo CN ON VO O’ O’ ID r- O ID tH ON 1 O 1 G ID o tH CN CN CD ID VO VO r- 00 ON O tH ro VO CO O tH ro D r- ON tH O’ VO ON tH 1 rH 1 •H tH rH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH CN CN CN CN CN CN ro ro ro ro ro ro O’ O’ O’ O' ID 1 rO 1 4J

C/3 1 U 1 03 o 1 3 1 rH dP VO

mm 00 CNm CO ro CO tH ON 00 CO tH in ON ON *—1CN O’ 00 tH ID o VO CN ON

w 1 U 1 4-1 o’ o tH CN CN CD CD in in VO r- CO ON tH CN ro vo C" CO ON tH CN O’ ID 00 a 1 rti 1 c u 1 2 1 H tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN ro ro ro ro m m c © 11 11 o 1 1 dP ID O m CO CN LD CO CN D ON CN VO tH VO ro o ON ON ON VO ro O CO VO O’ ro CN tH rH tH w3 aO —V 111 111 m O tH tH tH CN CN CN CD ro ro ID D

tH

VO rtH

r- 00

rH

ON

rH

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CN

tH

CN

CN

CN

CN

CN

ro

CN

O’CN

ID

CN

VO

CN

r*

CN

CO

CN

01

CN c 5/3 c QJ .3 ll 11 11 E C 2 r- 1

CJ I s

C/3

© 111 1 dP <T\

O CN VO ON ON ID CNO ON 00O 'cr ON VO

D CN CND tH tH LD ro ID tH CN 00 "u Em 1 1 VO O CN m ID r- 00 O CN D C" O CN r- o ro VO O 00 ro 00 ro ON ID CN ON VO a

13 gs Emo 111 1—1

•H 111

4J

03 cc

tH tH tH t—1tH rH CN CN CN CN CN ro ro ro ro 'cr O’ LD IDD vo VO r- r- 00 ON ON 10

L • WD « CJj 1 o 1 dP CO 00 00

O CNO 00 ro CO VO ro ro vo o VO LD CO CN o o CN VO

m O' 0)co

4)a

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V3 oc 1 ®

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m tH

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4-1G tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH tH rH tH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN ro ro ro ro ro O' O’ O' O' O' 3 Cm i •H 1 M

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m ro

rH

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t-H r—4*H rH r—4

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49
Table

S-3.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

oi cs e •= « .5 s s? o >

u3 .2 S =

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3d « 1

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3(2

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VO HHHHHHHHHHH(N(N(N(N(N(Nnnnmvl'^«3''a'l/Uniny5 ^

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51
Table

S-4.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

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52
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CN CN ro CO in in VO r- r- 00 ON rH CN ro in vo ON t—i

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CU 4-1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN ro ro ro ro ro CA

rH c 1 1 m 00 00 ro CO r" rH in ON CN 00 ro ON

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53
Table

S-5.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

1 1 VO O 00 ID cn rH cn r-* VO vo VO cn cn 00 ID ID cn CN cn <3* CN CO LD LD VO <n D cn

1 1 dPVO O rH CN CN cn ID ID VO r- ao <n o CN cn ID cn CN VO 00 rH cn VO cn CN LD cn cn

1 w

<TJ

1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN m m m cn LD ID ID vo

1 1

1 u 1 XJ ID rH r* cn in rH r** O f" ID ID LD C" cn N1 CN cn 00 rH cn r- r~ cn CN VO

1 1 ftJ dP O rH rH CN CN cn ID VO VO r- 00 cn o rH cn LD VO 00 <n rH cn VO 00 o CN ID r1 rH 1 ex ID

1 1 rH rH rH rH »—

1

rH rH rH rH rH rH rH <—

1

1—

1

CN CN CN CN CN CN CN cn cn cn cn cn

1 u 1 c

1 0 1 0

1 jj 1 •H CT) m CO cn r- CN VO rH VO rH VO cn o cn 00 cn CN ID "S' ID vo r- <n CN LD CO CN r1 <G 1 X-> dP O O rH rH CN CN cn cn ID ID vo r- t" 00 cn rH CN cn ID vo r- CO o rH CN D

1 )4 1 ftJ n1

1

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r-H 4-1 rH rH r-H 1-1 rH rH rH »—

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rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN cn cn cn cn cn

1

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cn 00 r- cn cn VO cn O r- ID CN o cn r1 1 dP o o rH rH rH CN CN CN CN cn cn cn LD VO vo r- 00 cn cn O rH CN CN cn ID ID VO

1 1 m o 1 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN o 1 1

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rH CN (N CN CN CN CN cn cn m m cn ID ID ID VO vo vo r*

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OX)

1 a* 1 rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN cn cn cn cn cn cn •n’ ID in

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1 1 cn

c/5 1

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E-* §

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vo cn rH rH CN

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1 1 dP O CN CN N* ID ID VO VO r- 00 00 cn cn o CN CN cn ID vo r- 00 cn rH CN QJ o 1 1 m

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1 U 1 rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH i—1 rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN cn cn cn cn cn cn rr

1 XJ 1 C

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rH rH cn 00 r* r~ r- r- 00 <n o CN in

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rH CN cn N1 ID vo r- 00 o rH CN

1 w 1

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rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN cn cn cn

1

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1 1 dP O O O rH rH rH CN CN m cn cn n* N* ID ID ID VO vo r** 00 00 cn cn o rH rH CN CN cn

1

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1

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1 01 <n <n cn o O O o O O O o O o rH rH rH rH rH i—

1

rH rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN <N

1 <U <T\ cn <n o O O o O O O o o o O O o O O O O o O o o O O O O o O

1 >< rH rH rH CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN CN

54
Table

S-5,

continued.

Projected

fuel

price

indices

with

assumed

general

price

inflation

rates

of

3,

4,

5,

and 6

percent,

by

end-use

sector

and

fuel

type.

ou

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fa) HHHHHHHHHHH(NCMCNO](N(N(N(Nnm^m^^MJ^I^ini^

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dP rr<T\rooo^rHooir>^<j\o<r><r>cor^cDOcnocNvoo>^ovLncN<T>cor^co

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