# A Modeling Protocol for the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System for Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region

**December 31, 2006**



# The Modeling Committee of the Ozone Transport Commi ssion2 TABLE OF CONTENTS
**1 STUDY DESIGN** 1.1 Background...................................................................................6 1.2 Objectives.....................................................................................6 1.3 Photochemical Modeling System.......................................................6 1.4 Deliverables..................................................................................7 1.5 Schedule............... .......................................................................7
**2 MA NA**  **GEMENT STRUCTURE** 2.1 OTR Oversight Committee................................................................8 2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling W orkgroup............................................8 2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling W orkgroup............................................8 2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Developme nt Workgroup.................................8 2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development W orkgroup....................................8
**3 OTR MODELING DOMA IN**  3.1 Description....................................................................................9 3.2 Horizontal Grid Size........................................................................9 3.2 Number of Vertical L ayers................................................................9
**4 OZONE EPISODES** 4.1 EPA Episode Selection Criteria.........................................................9 4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure.............................................103

**5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS** 5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields...............................................................11 5.2 Qua lity Assurance of MM5 Meteorological Fields..................................11
**6 BA SE CA**  **SE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002** 6.1 2002 Emission Inventories for OTC States..........................................11 6.2 2002 Emission Inventories for All Other OTR States..............................12
**7 BA SE CA**  **SE EMISSIO N INPUT FILES FOR 2002**  7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain.................12 7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain........12
**8 A IR QUA**  **LITY DA TA**  8.1 Initial conditions..............................................................................12 8.2 B oundary conditions........................................................................13 8.3 Ambient Air Quality Data...................................................................13
**9 DIA GNOSTIC A**  **NA LY**  **SES** 9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input Components.......................................13 9.2 Diagnostic Tests..............................................................................13
**10 MODEL PERFORMA**  **NCE EVA LUA** **TION** 10.1 Performance Criteria.......................................................................13 10.2 Statistical Performance Measures......................................................144

**11 CAA EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2009**  11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTC States for 2009...............................15 11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all other OTR States for 2009....................15
**12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2010 A**  **ND 2013 FOR THE OTR DOMA IN**  12.1 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain..................................15
**13 OZONE CONTROL STRA** **TEGY FOR THE OTR DOMA IN**  13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs.............................................15 13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs.....................................................16 13.3 Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission Databases......................16 13.4 OTR Domain Ozone Control Strategy.................................................16
**14 OZONE C**  **ONTROL STRA TEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES**  14.1 2009 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for OTR Domain.........16
**15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009** 15.1 Initial Conditions.............................................................................16 15.2 Boundary Conditions.......................................................................16 15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009 .......................................................17 15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for 2009........................................17
**16 DOCUMENTA TION REPORT**  ......................................................................17
**17 REFERENCES** ..........................................................................................175

**AP PENDIX A**  **:** Wo rkgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality

Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region
**AP PENDIX**  **B:** Wo rk Plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SIP Quality

Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Regio n6

**1 STUDY DESIGN** 1.1 Background Moderate non
- attainment areas in the Ozone Transport Region (OTR) are required to attain the 8
- hour ozone NAAQS by 2010. Modeled or monitored attainment is based on the summer ozone seas on preceding 2010, so the target year for attainment modeling is 2009 for moderate non - attainment areas. The Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) has embarked on the task of preparing a State Implementation Plan (SIP) ozone modeling system for exercising photo chemical grid model(s) to assess the impact of candidate ozone control strategies in moderate and serious non
- attainment areas in the OTR. The OTC Directors endorsed the Modeling Protocol for the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System For Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region at the November 12
- 13, 2003 Fall meeting of the OTC. The subject protocol has been modified since then to incorporate CMAQ model modifications and emission inventory improvements. This modeling protocol outlines procedures to prepare and use the OTC SIP ozone modeling system to help design an ozone attainment strategy to attain the ozone 8
- hour NAAQS in the OTR. Emission inventories for point, area, on

– road and off
- road sources of NO x , VOC and CO will be developed for a base year of 2002. BEIS3 will be used to estimate biogenic emissions. MM5 will be used at a 12 km grid resolution and, in the photochemical grid model, 4 km grid cells will be nested in urban areas where appropriate. A model performance evaluation will be prepared for 2002. If model performance is satisfactory, emission input files reflecting candidate control strategy scenarios for 2009 will be prepared, and 2009 ozone levels will be simulated with the modeling system . OTC States with moderate and serious non
- attainment areas will then use these modeling results to help support required ozone attainment demonstrations. However, it has become apparent that modeling at a higher resolution than 12 km is not possible with out improvements in the modeling system in terms of the physical and chemical formulation as well as the need for development of emissions estimates at spatial resolutions higher than county
- level estimates. 1.2 Objective The New York Department of Envir onmental Conservation has agreed to be the lead agency for developing a SIP quality ozone modeling system for assessing the future year attainment of the ozone 8
- hour NAAQS in the OTR. The CMAQ model will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies in the OTR Modeling Domain. The regulatory objective will be to design an ozone control strategy that will result in attainment of the 8
- hour ozone NAAQS in moderate non
- attainment areas by 2009. 1.3 Photochemical Modeling System The OTC Mode ling Committee in its prior work exercised both CMAQ and CAMx and noticed that even though these models had performed similarly in estimating ozone on an over
- all basis, the level of agreement between the simulated and measured concentrations varied from g ood to bad depending on the model and depending upon the simulation day. So, as part of this7

protocol, both models (which continue to be updated by their developers) will be applied for an episode that occurred in 2002. However, it was soon recognized tha t there was a need for application of a one - atmosphere modeling system that would provide estimates of both ozone and particulate matter and that the same base year emissions and meteorological data would be utilized in the development of appropriate SIPs. This together with USEPA’s launching of the CMAS center that provides a venue for sharing information from other modelers led the OTC modeling committee to select the CMAQ model for application in its SIP Quality Ozone Modeling System for testing the effe ctiveness of proposed control strategies in the OTR. The OTC Modeling Committee also examined the performances of two emissions processor s (EMS2001 and SMOKE, both using CB4 chemistry) from prior work and concluded that there are differences between the m that could be minimized by forcing the models to use a common speciation and surrogate database. Since CMAQ was the air quality model of choice, given that it handled inputs from SMOKE more readily than it did from the EMS2001 processor, the SMOKE emissi on processor was selected for constructing emission files for the SIP Quality Ozone Modeling System for the OTR Domain. 1.4 Deliverables The key deliverables for the SIP quality ozone modeling system for the OTR are listed below.

 Select Ozone Episodes  Prepare Meteorological Fields  Prepare 2002 Emission Inventories for each OTC State  Acquire 2002 Emission Inventories for non
- OTC States in the OTR Domain  Pre pare 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain  Complete 2002 Model Performance Evaluation for the OTR Domain  Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Inventories for each OTC State  Acquire 2009 CAA Emission Inventories for non
- OTC State s in the OTR Domain  Prepare 2009 CAA Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain  Complete Modeling Runs for 2009 CAA Scenarios  Design Control Strategy for the OTR Modeling Domain.  Prepare 2009 Emission Input Files for OTR Control Strategy  Complete Modeling Runs for the OTR Control Strategy for 2009  Complete Evaluation Report for 2009 Control Strategy 1.5 Schedule The schedule f or developing the SIP quality modeling system and the assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the Ozone Transport Region is provided in Appendix A

. B ecause of delays encountered in developing, integrating and processing state
- of
- the
- art emission inventories from Regional Planning Organizations in the MANE
- VU modeling domain, schedule target dates have been moved back approximately 9 months (complete Modeling TSD report in March of 2007 instead of June of 2006).8

**2 MA NA**  **GEMENT STRUCTURE** 2.1 OTR Oversight Committe e (Appendix B) OTC Air Directors will serve as the OTR Oversight Committee. The Air Directors will ensure that 2002 and 2009 CAA emission inventories are prepared for each OTC state in the OTR Modeling Domain, and will also be responsible for obtaining emission inventories for the non OTR States that are part of the OTR Modeling Domain. The Air Directors will oversee the design of ozone control strategies for the OTR, and will make the final decision on any funding needed to develop the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System. The Air Directors will review all OTC SIP Quality Modeling System documentation before it is released to interested parties. The state members of the OTC Modeling Committee will keep Air Directors informed of the development of the OTC SI P Quality Modeling System. 2.2 OTR Photochemical Modeling W orkgroup (Appendix B) OTR Photochemical Modeling Wo rkgroup will be responsible for preparing the modeling assessment of the ozone NAAQS in the OTR. The W orkgroup will be respo nsible for collecting and processing model input data, setting up all model input files, performing model runs, and interpreting and documenting the results of the modeling analyses for the OTR domain. The Wo rkgroup will prepare and submit all OTC SIP quality modeling system documentation to the OTC Air Directors. 2.3 OTR Meteorological Modeling W orkgroup (Appendix B) The OTR Meteorological Modeling W orkgroup will be responsible for preparing and assessing MM5 meteorological fiel ds for the OTR Modeling Domain. This W orkgroup will also work with the OTR Photochemical Modeling W orkgroup to prepare all meteorological input files for the OTC SIP quality modeling system. 2.4 OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup (Appendi x B) The OTR Emission Inventory Development Workgroup will be responsible for obtaining and developing guidance for preparing 2002 and 2009 state emission inventories for all states in the OTR. The OTC Air Directors will be responsible for obtaining em ission inventories for non
- OTR states in the OTR Modeling Domain. The Mid
- Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA) and the Mid
- Atlantic /Northeast Visibility Union (MANE
- VU) organizations will provide funding for contractors and work with OTR states to help prepare state
- of
- the
- art 2002 emission files, 2009 CAA emission files and 2009 Control Strategy emission files for the OTR Modeling Domain. 2.5 OTR Control Strategy Development W orkgroup (Appendix B) The OTR Control Strategy Develo pment Wo rkgroup will be responsible for designing an ozone control strategy for the OTR Domain that will attain the ozone NAAQS by 2009 in moderate non
attainment areas and 2012 in serious non
- attainment areas. The Wo rkgroup will work with the9

OTC station ary /area source committee and the OTC mobile source committee to design an effective ozone control strategy for the OTR domain.
**3 OTR MODELING DOMA IN**  3.1 Description The OTR modeling domain (see Figure 1) follows the national grid adopted by the Re gional Haze Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs), but with focus on the eastern U.S. The areal extent of the domain was selected such that the northeastern areas of Maine are inside the domain. Based upon the existing computer resources, the southern and western boundaries were limited to the region shown in Figure 1. At a horizontal grid resolution of 12 km, there are 172 grids in the east
- west and 172 grids in north
- south direction. Details of the modeling system setup can be found at ftp://ftp.dec.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/gsistla/otc
- mm5
- cmaq grid
- def.doc 3.2 Horizontal Grid Size Following EPA and as noted above, a 12 km grid resolution will be used for the domain. A coarser mesh may not be appropriate for urban area applications. Modeling at a higher resolution than 12 km will not be performed at this time; to do would require improvements in the modeling system in terms of the physical and chemical fo rmulation as well as the need for development of emissions at a higher spatial resolution than that for the currently available county - level estimates. 3.3 Number of Vertical Layers Similar to the horizontal grid spacing which is fixed by the default s et forth in the design of the meteorological model, in this case 12 km, the definition of the vertical structure could also be adopted one
- to - one based upon the meteorological model which has 29 layers. However, given the computational resources and runtim e needs the number of vertical layers in the photochemical model was limited to 22, of which the lower 16 layers (approximately 3km) were set one - to - one with those of the meteorological model. **4 OZONE EPISO DES**  4.1 Episode Selection Criteria Since it would be impractical to model every violation day, EPA has recommended targeting a select group of episode days for ozone attainment demonstrations. Such episode days should be (1) meteorologically representa tive of typical high ozone exceedance days in the domain, and (2) so severe that any control strategies predicted to attain the ozone NAAQS for that episode day would also result in attainment for all other exceedance days.10

Figure 1: OTC Modeling Domain with areal extent of 12km and 36km grids

4.2 Proposed Episode Selection Procedure Wh ile the above
- suggested approach is perhaps feasible for isolated urban areas, such an approach may not be meaningful given the areal extent of concern and the modeling domain. Also, select ion of episodes from different years would require the generation of the meteorological fields and emissions database, which would be an extremely difficult proposition given the modeling domain. The 2002 ozone season had a significant number of exceedanc e days (the spatial distribution of the daily 1
- hr and 8
- hr maxima over the eastern U. S. can be examined at the site ftp://ftp.state.ny.us/dar/air_research/htdocs/index.html ). It wa s decided that the 5
- month ozone season of 2002 would be simulated with the OTC SIP Quality Modeling System which will involve investigating numerous ozone episodes and would provide for better assessment of the simulated pollutant fields. The Environ rep ort “ Determination of Representativeness of 2002 Ozone Season for Ozone Transport Region SIP Modeling” demonstrated that 2002 episode days are (1) meteorologically representative of typical high ozone exceedance days in the domain, and (2) are probably so severe that control strategies predicted to attain the ozone NAAQS for those episode day would also result in attainment for all other exceedance days.11

**5 METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS** 5.1 MM5 Meteorological Fields The MM5 setup has been described by Zhang ( 2000) for generating meteorological fields based on a modified Blackadar scheme for the boundary layer. Since there are a variety of options that can be exercised in the application of MM5, initial testing was performed for a high ozone event of 2002 with the most commonly used default options as well as with modified boundary layer schemes (Zhang and Zheng 2004). A set of options was selected and used by Prof. Zhang of UMD in consultation with NYDEC Staff for running MM5 for the 2002 5
- month ozone season. 5.2 Quality Assurance of Meteorological Fields As a part of this effort, the simulated meteorological fields will be compared to data collected under CASTNET as well as with observations from the National W eather Service (N WS ). Prior experience has shown that these approaches provide for an independent assessment of the simulated meteorological conditions. Also, data from any other special measurements will be sought and compared with the simulated fields. This analysis should provide a degree of confidenc e in the simulated meteorological fields and their use in photochemical grid modeling. This work will be coordinated through the meteorological model work group.
**6 BA SE CA**  **SE EMISSION INVENTORIES FOR 2002** 6.1 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for OTC states Each state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2002 base year emission Inventory that include VOC, NO x , and CO for a typical ozone summer day. States are to follow EPA guidance documents for this base year inventory, which is due to EPA by June 1, 20 04. Note this inventory may also qualify as the consolidated emissions regulatory report (CERR). Emissions for all categories will be estimated for each county and state and the seasonal factors will facilitate spatial and temporal adjustments for modeli ng. Point and area source data will be submitted by individual states to EPA for uploading to EPA's National Emission Inventory (NEI) database using the required EPA format. MOBILE6.2 input files and VMT data will be submitted to NEI so that EPA can gene rate on - road mobile emissions for each state by county in a format that can be easily gridded and speciated. Similarly, off
- road input files will be sent to EPA for running the latest NONROAD model. It is anticipated that these state inventories will fol low the EPA prescribed approach and should be formatted in a consistent manner. Wh ile this protocol deals with 8
- hr ozone issues, the inventory would also contain the necessary information for exercising the particulate option of the photochemical model. This would be of help in those cases where the one
- atmosphere12

option is to be exercised in the assessment. Biogenic emissions will be estimated with EPA’s BEIS
- 3 emissions model. 6.2 2002 Base Case Emission Inventories for All Other States in the OTR Do main A 2002 base year emission inventory that includes VOC, NO x , and CO for a typical ozone summer day will be obtained for all non
- OTC states in the OTR domain. It is anticipated that these inventories will be developed following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent manner.
**7 BA SE CA**  **SE EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2002** 7.1 Preparation of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain Emissions data will be processed using SMOKE. The surrogate data files for the OTR grid have been previou sly developed by NY DEC and will be used in this study. For those pollutants that depend upon ambient temperature, MM5 layer
- 1 gridded temperature fields will be used. 7.2 Quality Assurance of 2002 Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain The processin g of the emissions data will include several quality checks before the data are exercised in the simulations. Prior experience has shown that considerable time and resources are often invested in developing the gridded emissions data. W hile there are man y avenues to improve or correct the data, based upon consensus of the OTC Photochemical Modeling Wo rkgroup, a definite closure of the emissions processing will be adhered to and any further changes or corrections will be archived and incorporated at a late r date. In performing this work, close attention will be paid to the emissions within the OTR and, if necessary, corrections will be incorporated on the advice of the OTC Photochemical Modeling W orkgroup. Biogenic emissions will be prepared for each epis ode day using BEIS
- 3. The temperature data from MM5 layer
- 1 will be used along with cloud cover information obtained from MM5. **8 A IR QUA**  **LITY DA TA**  8.1 Initial Conditions Prior experience has shown that a 3
- day ramp
- up period is sufficient to establish pollutant levels that are encountered in the beginning of the ozone episode. In this application clean conditions will be assumed for the 1st hour of the simulation along with the emissions and boundary conditions as described below. Since the application was to be in one
- atmosphere mode using a common platform, it was determined that a longer ramp
- up period of 15 days was needed because experiments indicated that some of the PM 2.5 species from the initial conditions (IC) were retained for ramp
- up periods of 10 days or less. Thus the CMAQ model run will start on May 1, 2002; the first 15 days are assumed to be ramp
- up days and will not used for performance evaluation purposes.13

8.2 Boundary Conditions In prior studies attempts were made to include any avai lable information from ozonesondes and monitors that are near the western and northern boundaries of the modeling domain. For this study, similar attempts will be made to obtain pollutant data at the boundaries. For boundary conditions, NY DEC will run C MAQ with the continental 36 km grid using GEOS
CHEM simulation data for 2002. The GEOS
- CHEM information will be obtained by NESCAUM from Prof. Daniel Jacob's group of Harvard University. Hour by hour boundary conditions will then be extracted from the con tinental 36 km CMAQ run results and used for the OTR 12 km modeling domain. 8.3 Ambient Air Quality Data Ambient air quality data will be extracted from the EPA AQS archive for ozone, CO, NO x , and total and speciated hydrocarbons reported as part of the PAMS network. Also, data from CASTN ET will be obtained. Since the OTR modeling domain extends over two time zones, while the model simulations are reflective of a single time zone, EST, there will be a need to ”correct” the clock and assemble the ambi ent air quality database. Any special measurements that are relevant to this study during the summer of 2002 will also be acquired, including upper air measurements.
**9 DIA GNOSTIC A**  **NA LY**  **SES** 9.1 Quality Assurance Tests of Input Components Before proceed ing with modeling, all air quality, emissions, and meteorological data will be reviewed to ensure completeness, accuracy, and consistency. Any errors, missing data or inconsistencies will be addressed using appropriate methods that are consistent with st andard practices. 9.2 Diagnostic Tests Attempts will be made to perform diagnostic tests to ensure that the simulated ozone patterns are in agreement with observed patterns over the entire simulation period. Wh ile it is unrealistic to expect day
- to - day agreement between the measured and predicted data, close attention will be paid to the changes in pattern of the measured ozone levels and the ability of the model to capture such changes.
**10 MODEL PERFORMA NCE EVA**  **LUA TION**  10.1 Performance Criteria14

This is an area that will likely require dialog among member states. W hile there are many statistical tests that can be applied to predicted ozone concentrations, it is important to define a priori some of the conditions of the analysis and the targets o f evaluation. Also, it is important to define the areal extent for which the assessment needs to be done to address the performance of the model. Statistical tests are to be applied to the precursor data as well, recognizing that all tests applied to the ozone data may or may not be valid. As part of the model assessment, qualitative analysis will also be performed by comparing predicted and measured pollutant fields to establish if the spatial patterns are captured by the modeling system. This is a cr itical step, since the measured concentrations may fall into a neighboring grid cell (but not at the measured location itself) and may be found to be in good agreement. Another area that is quite important is the predictive ability of the model with resp ect to height. Recognizing that the pollutants trapped above the mixed layer during the overnight hours would mix down during the daytime, comparison will be made between measurements and model predictions. Special attention will be paid to elevated moni toring stations, such as the television tower near Durham, North Carolina; the Sears Tower in Chicago, Illinois, and monitors located at elevated rural stations at Wh iteface Mountain, NY. 10.2 Statistical Performance Measures The recommended EPA proce dures will be used to calculate the recommended performance measures. At a minimum, the following three statistical performance measures will be used to assess CAMx model performance for each episode.

 Unpaired highest
- prediction accuracy This mea sure quantifies the difference between the highest observed eight
- hour value in the domain and the highest predicted value in the domain. The acceptable performance range is plus or minus 15
- 20 percent.

 Normalized bias This measure indicates the degree to which simulated eight
- hour values are over or under
- predicted. The acceptable performance range is plus or minus 5
- 15 percent.

 Gross error of all pairs above 40 ppb This measure indicates the average discrepancy between predicted and observed values and provides an overall assessment of model performance. The acceptable performance range is 30
- 35 percent.15

**11 CAA EMISSION INVENTO**  **RIES FOR 2009** 11.1 CAA Emission Inventories for OTR States for 2009 Each OTC state in the OTR Domain will prepare a 2009 CAA emission **i** nventory that is consistent with the regulations and rules adopted or expected to be in
- place. The inventory will be d eveloped consistent with EPA guidance. The states will develop the information on growth factors and controls used in the development of the inventory. Each state will submit a report on the development of these future year inventories. Since the electr ic energy generation and use are highly inter
- connected, coupled with the existing rules on trading and banking of pollutants, it is expected that an inventory consistent with this information would be developed for all electric energy generation units usi ng models such as IPM **.** Recognizing that any prediction of future emissions are subject to changes, the OTC Modeling Committee would develop a decision framework on obtaining these emissions to be consistent with the OTC SIP quality modeling system schedul e (Appendix A). 11.2 CAA Emission Inventories for all non
- OTR States for 2009 A 2009 CAA emission inventory that include s VOC, NO x , and CO for a typical ozone summer day will be obtained for all non
- OTC states in the OTR. It is anticipated that these in ventories will be developed following EPA guidance, and will be formatted in a consistent manner. **12 CAA EMISSION INPUT FILES FOR 2009 FOR THE OTR DOMA**  **IN** 12.1 CAA Emission Input Files for OTR Domain for 2009 2009 CAA emissions data will be processed us ing SMOKE. For pollutants that depend on ambient temperature, MM5 layer
- 1 gridded temperature fields will be used to estimate hourly emission rates. The biogenic emission input files prepared for the base 2002 will be used as a surrogate for 2009 biogenic emissions. These emissions data will be processed using the quality assurance checks described in section 7.2. It should be noted that the CAA means all on the books and on the way control measures (OTB/OT W) scheduled to be in effect by 2009. **13 OTR DOMA**  **IN OZONE CONTROL STRA TEGY**  13.1 OTC CALGRID System Screening Runs A series of CALGRID screening runs will be performed to investigate the level of emissions reductions needed both within and outside of the OTR. This will help identify potential em ission reductions scenarios that can be used for CMAX future year SIP modeling runs.16

13.2 OTC SIP Modeling Platform Runs OTC SIP modeling platform CAA runs for 2009 will be reviewed to help determine the level of emissions reductions needed to attain the ozone NAAQS. VOC and NOX sensitivity runs will also be performed to help identify potential emission reductions scenarios that can be used to lower ozone levels in the OTR. 13.3 Analysis of Available Air Quality and Emission Databases A review of a ir quality and emission databases (for example, EPA Clear Skies and Transport Rule emission files) will be performed to help identify potential source sectors of ozone precursors. Analysis of available EPA modeling results will also be performed to help i dentify potential source sectors of ozone precursors in, and upwind, of the OTR domain. 13.4 Ozone Control Strategy for the OTR Domain The OTR Control Strategy Development Team will review CALGRID results, other available databases **,** and EPA databases, to help identify potential control programs. The Team will work with OTR states and the OTC stationary, area and mobile source committees to design ozone control strategies for the OTR Domain with the goal of meeting regulatory target dates.
**14 OZONE CO NTROL STRA**  **TEGY EMISSION INPUT FILES** 14.1 Ozone Control Strategy Emission Input Files for the OTR Domain for 2009 Emissions files for the selected ozone control strategy for the OTR Domain for 2009 will be prepared in a consistent manner as per schedule. If necessary, additional IPM simulations may be performed to obtain EGU emission estimates.
**15 OZONE PREDICTIONS FOR 2009** 15.1 Initial Conditions The initial conditions at the startup will be “clean”. The OTR Modeling Team will use the 2002 initial condition files as a surrogate for initial conditions for 2009 modeling runs. 15.2 Boundary conditions EPA will be consulted for guidance in estimating boundary condition s for 2009 or, under default, would utilize those adapted for the Base 2002 base year simulation. It should be noted that the default option was used for the 2009 CMAQ simulation.17

15.3 CAA Ozone Predictions for 2009 The model will be run with the CAA emission files developed for 2009. Tile plots, difference plots, and mode l statistics will be prepared to help characterize the extent of any remaining non
- attainment areas predicted in the OTR in 2009. 15.4 Ozone Control Strategy Predictions for 2009. The model will be run with OTR control strategy emission files prepared for 2009. Tile plots, difference plots and model statistics will be prepared to help characterize the extent of any remaining non
- attainment areas predicted in the OTR for the year 2009.
**16 DOCUMENTA TION**  A report titled “Assessment of the Ozone Natio nal Ambient Air Quality Standards in the Ozone Transport Region will be prepared by the OTR Modeling Team”. The report would cover model performance evaluation, and an evaluation of the OTR control strategy runs for 2009. This technical document will be m ade available to all interested parties and will be used by the member States in their SIP submission documentation as needed.
**17 REFERENCES** Environ (2006): Determination of Representativeness of 2002 Ozone Season for Ozone Transport Region SIP Modelin g Dalin Zhang (2000): Development of meteorological database for summer 1997 using MM5 at 12 km resolution in Photochemical Model Simulations Dalin Zhang and Wi lliam Zheng (2004): Diurnal cycles of surface winds and temperatures as simulated by five boun dary
- layer parameterizations, Journal of Appl. Meteorology 43, 157
- 169 Gopal Sistla (1999): Development of a surrogate database for use in Regional/Urban
- scale Modeling at 4 km spatial resolution (see http: //envpro.ncsc.org/emcenter/ ) Wi ck Havens (2000): Development of an Emissions Inventory for Regional/Urban
- scale Modeling, MARAMA
- RTC (see http://www.marama.org/ )18 

## APPENDIX A Workgroups for the Development and Application of the OTC SI P Quality Modeling S ys tem for Assessment of the Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard in the Ozone Transport Region19 

## OTC Photochemical Modeling Workgroup

State Lead Gopal Sistla OTC contact Tom Frankie wicz Chair OTC Modeling Committee Barbara Kw etz

Delaw are Mohammed Majeed DC Rama Tangirala Maine Tom Downs Mary land Mike Woodman Massachusetts Steve Dennis New Hampshire Jeff Underhill New York Gopal Sistla Pennsylvania Tim Leon Gurrero NESCAUM Gary Kleiman EPA Invited for selected discussions20 

## OTC Meteorological Modeling Workgroup

State Lead Mike Woodman OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz
Connecticut Dave Wackter Delaw are Mohammed Majeed DC Rama Tangirala Maine Tom Downs Mary land Tad Aburn Matt Seybold Mike Woodman Jeff Stehr Massachusetts Rich Fields New Hampshire Jeff Underhill Ne w Jersey Alan Dresser New York Gopal Sistla Pennsylvania Tim Leon Gurrero Verm ont Paul Wishinski Virginia Kirit Chaudhar MARAMA Serpil Kayin NESCAUM Gary Kleiman EPA Invited for selected discussions21



## OTC Emission Inventory Development Workgroup

State Lead Ray Malenfant OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz
Connecticut Bill Simpson Delaw are Dave Fees DC Rama Tangirala Maine Dave Wright Mary land Roger Thgunell Massachuse tts Ken Santlal New Hampshire Mike Fitzgerald

Andy Bodnarik New Jersey Joan Held New York Jim Ralston Pennsylvania Dean Van Orden Rhode Island Karen Slattery Verm ont Jeff Merrell Virginia Tom Ballou MARAMA Serpil Kayin EPA Invited for selected discussions22



## OTC/MANE

- VU Control Strategies Workgroup

State Lead Jeff Underhill OTC contact Tom Frankiewicz
Connecticut Dave Wackter Kurt Kebschull Delaw are Ray Mal enfant Mohammed Majeed Maine Jeff Crawford Tom Downs Mary land Tad Aburn Matt Seybold Mike Woodman Jeff Stehr Massachusetts Eileen Hiney Steve Dennis New Hampshire Jeff Underhill

Andy Bodnarik New Jersey Bob Stern

Ray Papalski Alan Dresser Robert Huizer New York Gopal Sistla Pennsylvania Wick Havens Tim Leon Gurrero Rhode Island Barbara Morin Verm ont Paul Wishinski Virginia Kirit Chaudhar MARAMA Serpil Kayin Mega n Schuster NESCAUM Leah Weiss Gary Kleiman EPA Invited for selected discussions23 

## APPENDIX B Work Plan for the Development and Application of the OTC SI P Quality Modeling S ys tem.Work plan for the Dev elopment and Application of the OTC SI P Quality Modeling S ys tem †
**Task No.**  **Activity or Task Initial**  **Target Date**  **Organization(s)**

**Performing Task Remarks & Status**  **Notes & Revisions** Initial Planning 1 Prepare a W ork plan and a Modeling Protocol for the development of the OTC SIP quality modeling system to address ozone non
- attainment problems in the OTR. Nov 03 NY , MA Completed

Meteorology 2 3 4 Complete MM5 modeling for 2002 (May thru Sep) Episode evaluation and assessmen t Evaluate MM5 data and process for photochemical mo dels. Dec 04 Dec 04 Mar 05 MD (UMCP), NY

Contract Support MD (UMCP), NY In progress In progress Inn progress
Em issions Inventories 5
6
7
8 Prepare 2002 emission inventories for MANEVU states in the OTR Domain. Obtain 2002 emission inventories for non
- MANEVU states in the OTR Domain. Prepare 2009 CAA emission inventories for MANEVU states in the OTR Domain. Obtain 2009 CAA emission inventories for non
- MANEVU states in the OTR Domain. Jan 05
Jan 05 Aug 05 Aug 05 MARAMA

MARAMA
MARAMA
MARAMA
Em ission Input files 9
10
11 Prepare 2002 em ission files for the OTR dom ain with SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data. Prepare 2009 CAA em ission files for the OT R domain with SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data. Prepare 2009 emission files for OTR control strategy with SMOKE and /or EMS2001, and QA emissions data. Nov 04
Nov 05
Nov 05 NY

NY
NY Dela ye d until Jan 052 **Task No.**  **Activity or Task**  **Initial Target**  **Date Organization(s)** 

**Performing Task Remarks & Status**  **Notes & Revisions Modeling**  12
13
14 15 Complete 2002 model performance evaluation for OTR Domain. Test model sensitivity to NOx, VOC reductions and potential contro l measure options. Complete modeling runs for 2009 CAA scenarios. Complete modeling runs for 2009 OTR control strategy May 05 Sep 05
Jan 06 Jan 06 NY

NY
NY NY **OTR Control Strategy Development** 16
17
18 Perform screening runs with OTC CALGRID modeling sy stem Review air quality and emission databases to help identif y potential sources of ozone in the OTR. Design Control Strategy for the OTR Domain Mar 05
Jul 05 Sep 05 OTR Control Strategy

Deve lopment Wo rk group OTR Control Strategy Development Wo rk group OTR Control Strategy Development Wo rk group **Reports** 19 Complete technical support documents presenting regional OTR modeling and air quality/emission database analyses. (These two docum ents will provide technical support for state ozone SIPs. Jun 06 NY , other OTC states This will allow states nine mo nths to prepare SIP revisions due in April 2007. **Ma nagement**  20 21 Day
- to - day

management and coordination. Provide direction, overs ight, and obtain any necessary funding. on - going
on - going OTC Modeling

Committee OTC Air Directors
† To be used as needed for Ozone SIPs in the OTR. Based on EPA draft guidance, Ozone SIPs expected submission by April 2007.