U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

Bureau of Justice Statistics

Special Report

MAY 2018

HIGHLIGHTS

 The 401,288 state prisoners released in 2005 had an 

estimated 1,994,000 arrests during the 9-year period, 

an average of 5 arrests per released prisoner. Sixty 

percent of these arrests occurred during years 4 

through 9. 

 An estimated 68% of released prisoners were arrested 

within 3 years, 79% within 6 years, and 83% within 

9 years.

 Almost half (47%) of prisoners who did not have an 

arrest within 3 years of release were arrested during 

years 4 through 9.

 More than three-quarters (77%) of released drug 

offenders were arrested for a non-drug crime within 

9 years.

 Forty-four percent of released prisoners were arrested 

during the first year following release, while 24% were 

arrested during year-9. 

 Eighty-two percent of prisoners arrested during the 

9-year period were arrested within the first 3 years. 

 Five percent of prisoners were arrested during the first 

year after release and not arrested again during the 

9-year follow-up period.

 During each year and cumulatively in the 9-year 

follow-up period, released property offenders were more 

likely to be arrested than released violent offenders.

 Eight percent of prisoners arrested during the first 

year after release were arrested outside the state that 

released them, compared to 14% of prisoners arrested 

during year-9.

Mariel Alper, Ph.D., and Matthew R. Durose, BJS Statisticians

Joshua Markman, former BJS Statistician

NCJ 250975

2018 Update on Prisoner Recidivism: 

A 9-Year Follow-up Period (2005-2014)

Five in 6 (83%) state prisoners released in 2005 

across 30 states were arrested at least once during 

the 9 years following their release. The remaining 

17% were not arrested after release during the 9-year 

follow-up period. 

About 4 in 9 (44%) prisoners released in 2005 were 

arrested at least once during their first year after release 

(figure 1). About 1 in 3 (34%) were arrested during 

their third year after release, and nearly 1 in 4 (24%) 

were arrested during their ninth year. 

This report examines the post-release offending 

patterns of former prisoners and their involvement 

in criminal activity both within and outside of the 

state where they were imprisoned. The Bureau of 

Justice Statistics analyzed the offending patterns of 

67,966 prisoners who were randomly sampled to 

represent the 401,288 state prisoners released in 2005 

in 30 states. This sample is representative of the 30 

states, both individually and collectively, included in 

the study (see Methodology). In 2005, these 30 states 

Figure 1

Annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 

30 states in 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

Percent of released prisoners

Year after release

Note: The denominator for annual percent is 401,288 (total state 

prisoners released in 30 states in 2005). See table 5 for estimates and 

appendix table 7 standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 2

were responsible for 77% of all persons released from 

state prisons nationwide. The findings are based on 

prisoner records obtained from the state departments 

of corrections through BJS’s National Corrections 

Reporting Program and criminal history records 

obtained through requests to the FBI’s Interstate 

Identification Index and state repositories via the 

International Justice and Public Safety Network (Nlets).

BJS first collected the criminal history records of this 

same sample of prisoners to analyze their recidivism 

patterns for 5 years following release.1 In 2015, BJS 

re-collected the criminal history records on the same 

sample of prisoners to extend the original 5-year 

follow-up period to 9 years. This report presents the 

offending patterns for the full 9-year period. Both 

studies excluded prisoners who died during the 

respective follow-up periods. Because additional 

individuals in the sample died during the 9-year 

follow-up period, the overall universe of released 

prisoners declined from 404,638 during the 5-year 

follow-up study to 401,288 during the 9-year follow-up 

study. Since those 3,350 prisoners were not included 

in this longer study, recidivism estimates on the first 

5 years following release in this report may differ 

slightly from previously published estimates on the 

2005 release cohort.

About 1 in 4 state prisoners released in the 30 states 

in 2005 were in prison for a violent offense

Among the 401,288 prisoners released in 30 states in 

2005, an estimated 9 in 10 (89%) were male (table 1). 

Eighteen percent were age 24 or younger at time of 

release, 51% were ages 25 to 39, and 31% were age 40 

or older. The percentage of non-Hispanic black and 

non-Hispanic white prisoners were similar (40% each). 

Thirty-two percent of released prisoners were in prison 

for a drug offense, compared to 30% who were in 

prison for a property offense, 26% for a violent offense, 

and 13% for a public order offense. 

1See Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns 

from 2005 to 2010, NCJ 244205, BJS web, April 2014.

Table 1

Characteristics of prisoners released in 30 states 

in 2005

Characteristic Percent

All released prisoners 100%

Sex

Male 89.3%

Female 10.7

Race/Hispanic origina

White 39.7%

Black/African American 40.1

Hispanic/Latino 17.7

Otherb 2.4

America Indian or Alaska Native 1.2

Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander 0.8

Age at release

24 or younger 17.7%

25–29 19.4

30–34 16.0

35–39 15.7

40 or older 31.2

Most serious commitment offense

Violent 25.7%

Property 29.7

Drug 31.9

Public orderc 12.7

Number of released prisoners 401,288

Note: Data on prisoners’ sex and age at release were known for 100% of 

cases and race and Hispanic origin for nearly 100%. Detail may not sum 

to total due to rounding. See appendix table 2 for standard errors.

aExcludes persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, unless specified.

bIncludes persons of two or more races or other unspecified races.

cIncludes 0.8% of cases in which the prisoner’s most serious offense was 

unspecified.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 3

Measuring recidivism

Recidivism measures require three characteristics: 

1. a starting event, such as a release from prison

2. a measure of failure following the starting event, 

such as a subsequent arrest, conviction, or return to 

prison

3. an observation or follow-up period that generally 

extends from the date of the starting event to 

a predefined end date (e.g., 6 months, 1 year, 

3 years, 5 years, or 9 years). 

This study used four outcome measures to examine the 

recidivism patterns of former state prisoners. Arrest data 

were used because they provided the offense details 

needed to produce these four measures for prisoners 

from all 30 states in the study. 

1. Cumulative arrest percentage is the percentage of 

prisoners who had been arrested at least once at 

various points in the follow-up period. For example, 

the cumulative arrest percentage for year-5 is 

the percentage of all released prisoners who had 

at least one arrest during the 5-year period. BJS 

previously examined the cumulative percentage 

of prisoners who had a subsequent conviction 

or returned to prison within 5 years following 

release.2 The return-to-prison analysis for the 5-year 

follow-up study was limited to 23 of the study’s 30 

states with the data needed to identify returns to 

prison during the entire observation period.

2. Annual percentage of first arrests is the percentage 

of prisoners who had their first arrest following 

release during a specific year in the follow-up 

period. The denominator for each annual first-arrest 

percentage from years 1 through 9 is the total 

number of prisoners released in the 30 states 

during 2005. The numerators are the number of 

prisoners arrested for the first time during each of 

those years (i.e., they had not been arrested during 

a prior year in the follow-up period). The sum of the 

annual first-arrest percentages during a follow-up 

period equals the cumulative arrest percentage for 

the same period.

3. Annual arrest percentage of released prisoners 

includes those who were arrested at least once 

during a particular year within the follow-up 

period. The denominator for each percentage 

from years 1 through 9 is the total number of 

prisoners released in the 30 states during 2005. The 

numerators are the number of prisoners arrested 

during the particular year, regardless of whether 

they had been arrested during a prior year.

4. Annual volume of arrests is the total number of 

arrests of released prisoners during a particular 

year in the follow-up period. The total volume of 

arrests is the sum of each annual volume of arrests 

during the entire follow-up period. A prisoner may 

have had multiple arrests during a year or in the 

follow-up period, and a single arrest may have 

involved charges for more than one crime.

Measuring desistance

Desistance is measured as the percentage of prisoners 

who, after a particular year, had no subsequent arrests 

during the remainder of the 9-year follow-up period. 

For example, if a prisoner was arrested during year-3 

but was not arrested during years 4 through 9, the 

prisoner would be classified as having desisted during 

year-3. While recidivism is a measure of arrest at any 

point during the follow-up period, desistance is a 

measure of the absence of arrest between a particular 

point within the follow-up period and the end of the 

follow-up period.

Importance of recidivism and 

desistance measures

Measures of recidivism and desistance provide 

information relevant to a deeper understanding of 

criminal behavior and the administration of justice 

in a wide range of policy areas. For example, law 

enforcement officials interested in the amount of 

crime committed by released prisoners can turn to 

statistics on the annual volume of arrests. Parole and 

probation agencies interested in the involvement of 

various types of former prisoners in criminal activities 

after release may focus on variations in cumulative 

arrest percentages. Treatment providers looking for 

measures of program effectiveness will be interested 

in desistance patterns. Additionally, task forces and 

policymakers examining the movement of criminals 

across state borders will be interested in the types of 

released prisoners most likely to commit new crimes 

(i.e., recidivate) in other states.

2See Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns 

from 2005 to 2010, NCJ 244205, BJS web, April 2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 4

Extending the follow-up period from 

3 to 9 years increased recidivism of prisoners 

by 15 percentage points

The cumulative arrest percentage among released 

prisoners increased 15 percentage points when the 

follow-up period was extended from 3 years to 9 years. 

Sixty-eight percent of prisoners had been arrested 

for a new crime 3 years after release, while 79% of 

prisoners were arrested after 6 years following release 

(table 2). At the end of the 9-year follow-up period, the 

percentage of prisoners arrested after release increased 

to 83% (figure 2).

The cumulative out-of-state arrest percentage among 

released prisoners doubled when the follow-up period 

was extended from 3 years to 9 years. Three years after 

release, 7.7% of prisoners had been arrested outside 

the state of release. At the end of the 9-year follow-up 

period, the percentage of prisoners arrested outside of 

the state of release increased to 15.4%.

Table 2

Cumulative percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who were arrested within or outside the state of 

release, by year after release

Year after release

Within or outside the state of release Outside the state of release*

Total Percent arrested Percent not arrested Total Percent arrested Percent not arrested

1 100% 43.9% 56.1% 100% 3.3% 96.7%

2 100% 60.1 39.9 100% 5.7 94.3

3 100% 68.4 31.6 100% 7.7 92.3

4 100% 73.5 26.5 100% 9.3 90.7

5 100% 77.0 23.0 100% 10.9 89.1

6 100% 79.4 20.6 100% 12.2 87.8

7 100% 81.1 18.9 100% 13.4 86.6

8 100% 82.4 17.6 100% 14.4 85.6

9 100% 83.4 16.6 100% 15.4 84.6

Note: Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. See appendix table 3 for standard errors.

*Prisoners arrested outside the state of release could have also been arrested within the state of release.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Figure 2

Percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who 

were arrested since release, by year after release

Percent of released prisoners

Year after release

0

20

40

60

80

100

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

Note: See table 2 for estimates and appendix table 3 for standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 5

Forty-four percent of prisoners released in 2005 

were arrested during the first year following release 

(figure 3). Sixteen percent of released prisoners were 

arrested for the first time during the second year after 

release, and 8% were arrested for the first time during 

the third year. Fifteen percent of released prisoners 

were arrested for the first time during years 4 through 

9, including 11% arrested for the first time during years 

4 through 6 and 4% arrested for the first time during 

years 7 through 9.

Of the released prisoners who were arrested for a new 

crime during the 9-year follow-up period, the majority 

of the prisoners’ first post-release arrests occurred 

during the first 3 years of the follow-up period. More 

than half (53%) of all prisoners released in the 30 states 

in 2005 who were arrested during the 9-year follow-up 

period were arrested for the first time during the first 

year (not shown). Among all released prisoners arrested 

within 9 years, about 5 in 6 prisoners (82%) were 

arrested within the 3-year follow-up period (not shown). 

Longer follow-up periods show substantial 

declines in apparent desistance 

This study examined the extent to which released 

prisoners appeared to have desisted from criminal 

activity using various follow-up periods. Thirty-two 

percent of released prisoners had not been arrested 

within 3 years, compared to 21% within 6 years 

(figure 4). Within 9 years following release in 2005, the 

percentage of prisoners without a new arrest following 

release declined to 17%. That is, almost half (47%) of 

prisoners with no arrest within 3 years of release had 

an arrest during years 4 through 9.

Percent of released prisoners

Year of rst arrest

0

10

20

30

40

50

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

Figure 3

Percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who 

were arrested after release, by year of first arrest

Note: The denominator for the annual percentage was 401,288 (total 

state prisoners released in 30 states in 2005). See appendix table 4 for 

estimates and standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Percent of released prisoners

Year after release

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

Note: See table 2 for estimates and appendix table 3 for standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Figure 4

Percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who 

were not arrested since release, by year following release
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 6

After year-1 the annual percentages of males and 

females arrested for the first time were similar

The difference in the percentage of male and female 

prisoners who were arrested for the first time each 

year following release narrowed after the first year. 

In the first year after release, 45% of male prisoners 

were arrested, compared to 35% of female prisoners 

(figure 5). However, during each of the following years, 

the percentages of males and females arrested for the 

first time following release were similar. During the 

9-year follow-up period, 84% of male prisoners were 

arrested and 77% of female prisoners were arrested.

A smaller percentage of white prisoners than black 

or Hispanic prisoners recidivated during the first 

year after release. During the first year after release, 

40% of white prisoners were arrested for the first 

time, compared to 47% of Hispanic and 46% of 

black prisoners (table 3). During year-2 after release, 

16% of white prisoners were arrested for the first 

time, compared to 17% of black and 14% of Hispanic 

prisoners. During the ninth year after release, about 

1% of each sex, race, Hispanic origin, and age group 

were arrested for the first time. During the 9-year 

follow-up period, 87% of black prisoners and 81% of 

white and Hispanic prisoners were arrested.

Table 3

Percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who were arrested after release, by prisoner characteristics and 

year of first arrest

Characteristic

Total arrested 

within 9 years Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

All released prisoners 83.4% 43.9% 16.2% 8.3% 5.1% 3.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0%

Sex

Male 84.2% 44.9% 16.3% 8.3% 5.1% 3.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 0.9%

Female 76.8 35.1 15.7 8.5 5.5 4.2 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.4

Age at release

24 or younger 90.1% 51.8% 17.0% 7.7% 4.8% 3.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.7%

25–39 85.3 44.9 16.7 8.6 5.2 3.6 2.3 1.7 1.4 0.9

25–29 87.0 45.9 16.8 8.8 5.5 3.8 2.5 1.5 1.3 0.9

30–34 84.3 43.9 16.5 8.2 5.3 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.0

35–39 84.3 44.6 16.8 8.7 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.7 1.2 0.9

40 or older 76.5 37.8 15.1 8.1 5.1 3.5 2.5 1.9 1.4 1.2

Race/Hispanic origina

White 80.9% 40.2% 15.8% 8.4% 5.2% 3.8% 2.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.2%

Black/African American 86.9 46.0 17.4 8.6 5.5 3.4 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.9

Hispanic/Latino 81.3 47.3 14.3 7.2 4.2 3.1 2.2 0.9 1.3 0.7

Otherb 82.4 44.1 16.4 8.8 4.5 3.0 1.3 2.1 1.3 1.1

American Indian or Alaska Native 85.0 43.5 16.3 9.5 4.8 3.6 1.6 2.7 1.6 1.4

Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other 

Pacific Islander 79.4 45.0 16.0 8.3 4.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0

Note: Data on prisoners’ sex and age at release were known for 100% of cases and race and Hispanic origin for nearly 100%. Detail may not sum to total 

due to rounding. See appendix table 5 for standard errors.

aExcludes persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, unless specified.

bIncludes persons of two or more races or other unspecified races.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Percent of released prisoners

Year of rst arrest

0

10

20

30

40

50

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

Female

Male

Figure 5

Percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who 

were arrested following release, by sex of prisoner and 

year of first arrest

Note: See table 3 for estimates and appendix table 5 for standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 7

The difference in the percentage of prisoners in each 

age group who were arrested for the first time each year 

following release narrowed after the first year. During 

the first year after release, 52% of prisoners age 24 or 

younger at time of release were arrested, compared to 

38% of prisoners age 40 or older (figure 6). During 

the second year, an estimated 17% of prisoners age 24 

or younger were arrested for the first time following 

release, compared to 15% of prisoners age 40 or older. 

During the 9-year follow-up period, 90% of prisoners 

age 24 or younger at release were arrested, 77% of 

prisoners age 40 or older at release were arrested, 

and 43% (not shown) of prisoners age 60 or older 

were arrested.

Prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 were 

arrested nearly 2 million times during the 9 years 

following release

The 401,288 state prisoners released in 2005 had an 

estimated 1,994,000 arrests during the 9-year period, 

an average of 5 arrests per released prisoner (table 4). 

Extending the follow-up period to 9 years captured 

more than double the number of post-release arrests 

observed in a 3-year follow-up period and increased 

the number of arrests observed during a 5-year 

follow-up period by 38%. Six in 10 (60%) of the 

1,994,000 arrests during the 9-year period occurred 

from years 4 through 9. 

An estimated 23% of released prisoners were 

responsible for half of the nearly 1,994,000 arrests 

that occurred during the 9-year follow-up period 

(not shown). A similar percentage of prisoners were 

responsible for half of the arrests during the 3-year 

follow-up period (also 23%) (not shown).

Table 4

Post-release arrests of prisoners released in 30 states in 

2005, by year after arrest

Year after 

arrest

Number of 

arrests during

year/period

Percent of 

arrests during 

year/period

Cumulative 

number of all 

arrests since 

release

Cumulative 

percent of all 

arrests since 

release

Total 1,994,000 100% ~ ~

Years 1–3 804,000 40.3% ~ ~

1 306,000 15.4 306,000 15.4

2 260,000 13.0 567,000 28.4

3 238,000 11.9 804,000 40.3

Years 4–6 620,000 31.1% ~ ~

4 219,000 11.0 1,024,000 51.3

5 210,000 10.6 1,234,000 61.9

6 190,000 9.6 1,425,000 71.4

Years 7–9 570,000 28.6% ~ ~

7 196,000 9.8 1,620,000 81.2

8 194,000 9.7 1,814,000 91.0

9 180,000 9.0 1,994,000 100

Note: Number of post-release arrests was rounded to the nearest 1,000. 

Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. See appendix table 6 for 

standard errors. 

~Not applicable.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Percent of released prisoners

Year of rst arrest

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

25–39

24 or younger

40 or older

Note: See table 3 for estimates and appendix table 5 for standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

FIGURE 6

Percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who 

were arrested after release, by age at release and year 

of first arrest
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 8

Male and younger prisoners were more likely to be 

arrested each year than female and older prisoners

Patterns of the annual arrest percentages differ from 

patterns of the year of first arrest. Thirty-four percent 

of all released prisoners were arrested during their 

third year after release, compared to 24% during 

their ninth year (table 5). Nearly a quarter (24%) 

of the released prisoners who were arrested during 

year-3 had not previously been arrested following 

release (not shown). Four percent of the released 

prisoners who were arrested during year-9 had not 

previously been arrested following release (not shown).

Forty-five percent of male prisoners were arrested 

during the first year after release, compared to 

35% of female prisoners (figure 7). During year-9, the 

difference between males and females narrowed with 

24% of male prisoners arrested compared to 21% of 

female prisoners. While the difference in percentage 

Percent of released prisoners

Year after release

0

10

20

30

40

50

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

Male

Female

FIGURE 7

Annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 

30 states in 2005, by sex of prisoner

Note: See table 5 for estimates and appendix table 7 for standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Table 5

Annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by prisoner characteristics

Characteristic Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

All released prisoners 43.9% 37.7% 34.3% 31.9% 30.1% 28.0% 27.4% 25.9% 24.0%

Sex

Male 44.9% 38.2% 34.7% 32.3% 30.5% 28.4% 27.8% 26.4% 24.3%

Female 35.1 33.2 30.7 28.0 26.6 24.3 23.8 21.9 21.3

Age at release

24 or younger 51.8% 42.3% 36.7% 34.4% 34.3% 31.3% 31.9% 30.3% 27.6%

25–39 44.9 38.9 35.7 33.4 31.1 29.3 28.9 27.5 25.6

25–29 45.9 39.2 36.3 33.2 31.7 30.3 29.3 28.3 26.4

30–34 43.9 38.1 34.4 32.8 30.3 28.2 28.1 27.2 24.1

35–39 44.6 39.3 36.3 34.1 31.3 29.3 29.4 27.1 26.1

40 or older 37.8 33.1 30.5 28.1 25.9 23.8 22.2 20.7 19.4

Race/Hispanic origina

White 40.2% 35.0% 32.2% 29.9% 28.7% 26.8% 26.2% 25.0% 22.9%

Black/African American 46.0 40.6 36.5 34.1 31.9 29.5 29.1 27.3 25.3

Hispanic/Latino 47.3 36.9 33.6 31.4 29.3 26.8 25.7 24.0 23.4

Otherb 44.1 37.8 35.3 32.0 27.8 28.7 29.9 29.2 24.6

American Indian or Alaska Native 43.5 37.8 38.8 32.3 29.9 31.3 34.7 31.0 26.0

Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other 

Pacific Islander 45.0 39.1 29.7 31.3 25.2 25.4 26.2 27.5 21.2

Note: Data on prisoners’ sex and age at release were known for 100% of cases, and race and Hispanic origin were known for nearly 100% of cases. See 

appendix table 7 for standard errors.

aExcludes persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, unless specified.

bIncludes persons of two or more races or other specified races.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 9

points narrowed from 10% during year-1 to 3% 

during year-9, the difference between male and female 

prisoners decreased proportionally. During year-1, 

the percentage of female prisoners who were arrested 

following release was 78% of that for male prisoners, 

while during year-9 the percentage of female prisoners 

was 87% of that for male prisoners (not shown).

Younger prisoners (those age 24 or younger) were 

more likely to be arrested than older prisoners 

(those age 40 or older) during each year following 

release. For example, 28% of prisoners released at age 

24 or younger were arrested during year-9, compared 

to 19% of those age 40 or older (figure 8).

During the 9 years after release, prisoners 

released for a property offense were most likely 

to be arrested

During the first year following release, the percentage 

of prisoners released for a property offense who were 

arrested for any type of offense (including violent, 

property, drug, or public order offenses) was higher 

than the percentage of prisoners released for a drug or 

violent offense. This general pattern was maintained 

across the 9-year follow-up period. It should be noted 

that persons could have been serving time in prison 

for more than one offense and were categorized for 

this report by the most serious offense for which they 

were imprisoned: a violent, property, drug, or public 

order crime.

Percent of released prisoners arrested*

Year of arrest

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

Property

Drug

Violent Public order

Most serious oense for

which they were in prison

FIGURE 9

Annual percentage of prisoners released in 30 states 

in 2005 who were arrested for any type of offense, by 

most serious commitment offense

Note: Public order includes 0.8% of cases in which prisoners’ most 

serious offense was unspecified. See table 6 for estimates and 

appendix table 8 for standard errors. 

*Persons could have been in prison for more than one offense; the 

most serious one is reported in this figure.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Percent of released prisoners

Year of arrest

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

24 or younger

25–39 40 or older

FIGURE 8

Annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 

30 states in 2005, by age of prisoner at release

Note: See table 5 for estimates and appendix table 7 for standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 10

Table 6

Annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by most serious commitment offense and type 

of post-release arrest offense

Most serious commitment offense Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

Any arrest after release

All released prisoners 43.9% 37.7% 34.3% 31.9% 30.1% 28.0% 27.4% 25.9% 24.0%

Violent* 38.9 33.7 30.4 28.1 27.2 25.0 25.2 24.1 21.4

Property 50.8 † 41.6 † 38.3 † 36.5 † 33.2 † 31.3 † 30.6 † 29.3 † 27.6 †

Drug 42.8 † 38.5 † 34.9 † 31.8 † 30.2 † 27.6 † 26.7 † 25.0 23.4 †

Public order 40.5 34.3 31.2 28.9 28.0 27.0 † 25.8 23.8 22.5

Violent arrest after release

All released prisoners 9.0% 8.3% 7.6% 7.6% 7.2% 6.5% 6.6% 6.0% 5.2%

Violent* 11.0 10.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.8

Property 9.3 † 7.8 † 7.7 7.8 † 6.9 † 7.1 7.2 6.2 5.7

Drug 6.8 † 7.2 † 6.7 † 6.2 † 6.2 † 5.3 † 5.7 † 5.4 † 4.4 †

Public order 9.7 8.6 † 8.3 8.1 7.3 † 7.2 6.6 6.4 5.3

Arrest after release for same type as most serious

 commitment offensea

All released prisoners 21.0% 18.0% 15.6% 14.5% 13.7% 12.2% 11.8% 11.5% 10.6%

Violent 11.0 10.2 8.4 8.8 8.9 6.8 6.9 6.5 5.8

Property 25.0 20.6 17.6 16.9 15.6 14.2 14.1 13.9 12.6

Drug 22.0 19.6 17.2 15.0 13.8 12.2 11.5 11.4 11.0

Public order 29.2 23.8 21.1 19.2 18.4 18.2 17.0 16.0 14.5

Arrested after release for different type of offense 

 than most serious commitment offenseb

All released prisoners 36.1% 30.9% 28.0% 26.3% 24.6% 23.1% 22.8% 21.5% 20.0%

Violent 35.2 30.4 27.6 25.1 23.9 22.7 22.8 22.0 19.5

Property 42.4 34.4 31.6 30.6 27.6 26.0 25.6 24.1 23.0

Drug 34.8 31.3 27.9 26.0 24.6 22.7 22.2 20.7 19.1

Public order 26.3 22.6 20.7 19.8 18.7 17.9 18.0 16.6 16.0

Note: Persons could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most serious one is reported in this table. Each arrest may include more than 

one type of offense. ‘Type of offense’ refers to the categories of violent, property, drug, and public order. Public order includes 0.8% of cases in which 

prisoners’ most serious offense was unspecified. See appendix table 8 for standard errors.

*Comparison group.

†Difference with comparison group is significant at the 95% confidence level.

a,bPercentages in these two categories do not sum to the ‘any arrest after release’ category because categories overlap.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Thirty-nine percent of prisoners released in 2005 who 

were serving time for a violent offense were arrested 

for any type of offense during the first year following 

release, compared to 51% of those released after serving 

time for a property offense (table 6, figure 9). By 

year-9 these percentages fell to 21% for those released 

for a violent offense and 28% for those released for 

a property offense. However, similar to year-1, the 

percentage of prisoners released for a violent offense 

who were arrested following release was about 

three-quarters of the percentage for those released for a 

property offense.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 11

At the end of the 9-year follow-up period, 79% of 

prisoners released for a violent offense had been arrested 

for any type of crime (table 7). Prisoners released for a 

violent offense were less likely to have been arrested for 

any type of crime than prisoners released for a property 

(88%) or drug (84%) offense but were more likely to 

have been arrested for a violent offense.

Table 7

Cumulative percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who were arrested following release, by most serious 

commitment offense and type of post-release arrest offense

Most serious commitment offense Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

Any arrest after release

All released prisoners 43.9% 60.1% 68.4% 73.5% 77.0% 79.4% 81.1% 82.4% 83.4%

Violent* 38.9 54.2 62.2 67.6 71.6 74.2 76.1 77.7 78.7

Property 50.8 † 67.1 † 75.0 † 79.6 † 82.4 † 84.4 † 85.8 † 86.9 † 87.8 †

Drug 42.8 † 59.9 † 68.6 † 73.9 † 77.5 † 79.8 † 81.5 † 82.7 † 83.8 †

Public order 40.5 55.9 65.0 † 70.2 † 74.1 † 76.9 † 79.2 † 80.6 † 81.9 †

Violent arrest after release

All released prisoners 9.0% 15.8% 20.9% 25.4% 29.3% 32.3% 35.0% 37.3% 39.1%

Violent* 11.0 19.1 24.5 29.6 34.0 36.9 39.5 41.7 43.4

Property 9.3 † 15.8 † 20.9 † 25.7 † 29.3 † 32.9 † 36.0 † 38.5 † 40.4 †

Drug 6.8 † 12.7 † 17.5 † 21.3 † 25.1 † 27.7 † 30.1 † 32.1 † 34.0 †

Public order 9.7 16.4 † 21.8 † 26.6 † 30.0 † 32.9 † 35.7 † 38.1 † 39.8 †

Arrest after release for same type as most serious

 commitment offensea

All released prisoners 21.0% 32.5% 39.6% 45.0% 49.1% 52.1% 54.5% 56.5% 58.2%

Violent 11.0 19.1 24.5 29.6 34.0 36.9 39.5 41.7 43.4

Property 25.0 37.5 45.0 50.4 54.6 57.6 60.0 61.9 63.5

Drug 22.0 34.7 42.5 47.9 51.8 54.4 56.7 58.6 60.4

Public order 29.2 42.4 50.4 56.1 60.3 63.8 66.6 68.6 70.3

Arrested after release for different type of offense 

 than most serious commitment offenseb

All released prisoners 36.1% 51.0% 59.4% 65.0% 68.9% 71.7% 73.9% 75.6% 76.9%

Violent 35.2 49.6 57.5 63.0 67.1 69.9 72.1 73.7 74.8

Property 42.4 58.0 66.4 71.8 75.3 77.9 79.8 81.4 82.6

Drug 34.8 50.2 58.8 64.6 68.6 71.4 73.6 75.3 76.7

Public order 26.3 39.7 48.2 54.3 58.4 61.6 64.6 66.5 68.2

Note: Persons could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most serious one is reported in this table. Each arrest may include more than 

one type of offense. ‘Type of offense’ refers to the categories of violent, property, drug, and public order. Public order includes 0.8% of cases in which 

prisoners’ most serious offense was unspecified. See appendix table 9 for standard errors.

*Comparison group.

†Difference with comparison group is significant at the 95% confidence level.

a,bPercentages in these two categories do not sum to the ‘any arrest after release’ category because categories overlap.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 12

Percent of released prisoners arrested*

Year after arrest

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

Property

Drug

Violent

Public order

Most serious oense for

which they were in prison

FIGURE 10

Annual percentage of prisoners released in 30 states 

in 2005 who were arrested for a violent crime, by most 

serious commitment offense

Note: Public order includes 0.8% of cases in which prisoners’ most 

serious offense was unspecified. See table 6 for estimates and appendix 

table 8 for standard errors.

*Persons could have been in prison for more than one offense; the most 

serious one is reported in this figure.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

By the sixth year after release, prisoners released for 

a violent or property crime were similarly likely to be 

arrested for a violent crime

During the first year of the follow-up period, a larger 

percentage of prisoners released for a violent offense 

were arrested for a violent crime than those released for 

a property or drug offense. Eleven percent of prisoners 

released for a violent offense were arrested during year-1 

for a violent offense, compared to 9% of those released 

for a property offense and 7% of prisoners released for a 

drug offense (figure 10). However, beginning in year-6, 

prisoners released for a violent offense were similarly 

likely to be arrested for a violent crime as those released 

for a property or public order offense. Throughout 

the 9-year follow-up period, prisoners released for a 

drug offense were less likely to be arrested for a violent 

crime than prisoners released for a violent offense.

Among prisoners arrested following release, the 

percentage of arrests in another state increased 

each year after release

The likelihood of former prisoners being arrested 

outside the state where they were released increased 

with a longer follow-up period. During each of the 

9 years following release, fewer than 4% of prisoners 

were arrested outside the state (table 8). However, 

among prisoners arrested within a given year following 

release, the percentage of prisoners arrested in another 

state increased as the length of time from release in 

2005 increased. Eight percent of prisoners arrested 

during year-1 were arrested outside of the state 

from which they were released. Fourteen percent 

of prisoners who were arrested during year-9 were 

arrested outside of the state of release.

Table 8

Annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 30 

states in 2005, by whether arrested within or outside 

the state of release

Year after

arrest

All released prisoners Among released 

prisoners arrested during 

the year, percent arrested 

outside state of release

Outside state 

of release

Within or outside 

state of release

1 3.3% 43.9% 7.5%

2 3.4 37.7 9.0

3 3.4 34.3 10.0

4 3.5 31.9 10.9

5 3.6 30.1 12.0

6 3.5 28.0 12.6

7 3.6 27.4 13.3

8 3.5 25.9 13.6

9 3.4 24.0 14.2

Arrested 

anytime in 

follow-up 

period 15.4% 83.4% ~

Note: Detail may not sum to total due to rounding. See appendix table 10 

for standard errors.

~Not applicable.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released 

in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 13

Five percent of prisoners were arrested during 

year-1 following release and not arrested again 

during years 2 through 9

Thirty-nine percent of all released prisoners were 

arrested during the first year after release and were 

also subsequently arrested at least once during years 

2 through 9 (figure 11). Five percent of prisoners were 

arrested during the first year after release and were 

not arrested again during years 2 though 9. Among 

prisoners arrested during the first year following 

release, nearly 9 in 10 (89%) were arrested again during 

the next 8 years (not shown).

During the second year after release, 38% of prisoners 

were arrested. A third (33%) of all released prisoners 

were arrested during the second year and also arrested 

again at least once during years 3 through 9. The 

remaining 5% were not arrested again during the 

follow-up period.

The percentage who were not arrested during a 

subsequent year increased during the later years of the 

follow-up period. However, there are fewer observable 

years in which to capture a subsequent arrest during 

later years of the follow-up period. (For example, in 

year-8 there is only one subsequent year.)

Forty-four percent of released prisoners were not 

arrested after year-5 

Twenty-two percent of released prisoners were not 

arrested after year-1 of the follow-up period (figure 12). 

In other words, when measured by a new arrest, 22% of 

prisoners appeared to desist by year-1 because they 

were not arrested during years 2 through 9. Some 

released prisoners may not have been arrested because 

they were incarcerated at certain times during the 

follow-up period. Thirty-one percent of prisoners 

appeared to have desisted by year-3 and 44% by year-5. 

This percentage eclipsed 52% in year-6, at which point 

two-thirds of the observable years had elapsed.

Percent of released prisoners

Year after arrest

0

10

20

30

40

50

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th

38.9

26.0 12.2 23.2 20.1

29.1 33.0

17.2

13.7 10.2 6.9 7.8 5.2 5.9 4.9 4.7

Arrested again during a subsequent year

Not arrested during a subsequent year

FIGURE 11

Percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who 

were arrested after release, by year after arrest and 

whether arrested during subsequent years 

Note: The denominator for the annual percentage was 401,288 (total 

state prisoners released in 30 states in 2005). See appendix table 11 for 

estimates and standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Percent of released prisoners

Year after release

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th

FIGURE 12

Prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who were not 

arrested in the remainder of the follow-up period, by 

year after release

Note: Estimates after year-6 are not presented as 3 years of subsequent 

arrests could not be measured. See appendix table 12 for estimates and 

standard errors.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 14

Longer follow-up periods provide additional data on the nature of criminal 

careers, but take time

Research on the criminal activities of persons released 

from prison has employed different follow-up periods. 

A 3-year follow-up period has been common, but other 

time periods (e.g., 1-year, 5-year, and 9-year, as in this 

report) have been used. Which follow-up period is 

employed is often driven by the availability of data or 

the need to study a specific cohort (e.g., those released 

3 years ago). Independent of these constraints, deciding 

which follow-up period to use is closely linked to the 

competing concerns of accuracy and immediacy.

This study provides empirical evidence that may be 

used to inform which follow-up period is preferred for 

various research efforts and policy applications. For 

example, comparing the 3-year and 9-year follow-up 

periods showed that the basic recidivism percentage 

(defined as the cumulative arrest percentage 

following release) was underestimated by an average 

of 15 percentage points using the 3-year window. 

Similarly, the 9-year follow-up period showed that 

the percentage of released prisoners arrested in 

states outside the state that released them was twice 

as high as that observed in a study with a 3-year 

follow-up period.

With a follow-up period of 3 years, researchers and 

policymakers would not have observed more than half 

of the arrests of prisoners after their release. This study’s 

9-year follow-up period showed that 60% of all arrests 

of released prisoners occurred more than 3 years after 

their release.

A longer follow-up period enables researchers and 

policymakers to better explore the attributes of 

desistance. This study found that 32% of released 

prisoners had no arrests following release during the 

3-year follow-up period (and appeared to have desisted 

from criminal activity), but almost half of those (15%) 

were arrested during the subsequent 6 years, leaving 

17% who had no arrests during the 9-year follow-up 

period (see table 2). In addition, the study found that 

24% of released prisoners were still actively involved in 

criminal activity and were arrested during year-9, which 

could be viewed as inviting an even longer period of 

review. The longer period also enables researchers 

to understand more complex patterns of desistance. 

For example, of the 44% of released prisoners who 

were arrested during their first year after release, 1 in 9 

(5% of all released prisoners) had no additional arrests 

during the 9-year follow-up period.

Counterbalancing the value of a longer follow-up 

period is the need for up-to-date information. 

Offending patterns may change with time and the 

offending patterns of prisoners released 10 years ago 

may be different than those of prisoners released in 

recent years. In addition, policymakers and practitioners 

have a need for timely information and may not have 

time for a recidivism study with a long observation 

period to be completed to assess the value of a 

rehabilitation program for released prisoners or a policy 

change affecting sentencing.

There is no standard length for follow-up periods used 

in studies of the criminal careers of released prisoners 

or any other cohort of offenders. This study shows how 

recidivism and desistance measures change when 

longer or shorter follow-up periods are used. With these 

additional data, designers and users of recidivism and 

desistance studies have more information to determine 

which follow-up period is best for their needs.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 15

Methodology

Sampling

This study estimates the recidivism patterns of persons 

released in 2005 from state prisons in 30 states. States 

were included in this study if the state departments 

of corrections could provide the prisoner records 

and the FBI or state identification numbers on 

persons released from prison during 2005. The 

fingerprint-based identification numbers were required 

to obtain the criminal history records on released 

prisoners. The prisoner records—obtained from the 

state departments of corrections through the Bureau of 

Justice Statistics’ (BJS) National Corrections Reporting 

Program (NCRP)—also included each prisoner’s 

sex, race, Hispanic origin, date of birth, confinement 

offenses, sentence length, type of prison release, and 

date of release. The 30 states whose departments of 

corrections submitted the NCRP data on prisoners 

released in 2005 included Alaska, Arkansas, California, 

Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Iowa, Louisiana, 

Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, 

Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North 

Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, 

South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virginia, 

Washington, and West Virginia (map 1).

Across the 30 states in 2005, a total of 412,731 

prisoners were released and were eligible for this study 

(see appendix table 1). That number excludes 131,997 

prisoners (for a total of 544,728) who were sentenced 

to less than one year, transferred to the custody of 

another authority, died in prison, were released on 

bond, were released to seek or participate in an appeal 

of a case, or escaped from prison or were absent 

without official leave. The first release during 2005 was 

used for those prisoners released multiple times during 

the year.

From the universe of persons released from prison 

in the 30 states in 2005 in this study, all males and 

females who were in prison for homicide were selected 

with certainty into the study. Analyses were done to 

determine the number of non-homicide prisoners 

that would be needed from each state’s universe 

of released prisoners to yield a statistically sound 

estimate of that state’s recidivism and desistance rates. 

As a result, states contributed different numbers of 

records to the final sample. To achieve the desired 

state-level samples, lists of all males and females 

imprisoned for a non-homicide offense were sorted 

separately by the county in which the sentence was 

imposed, race, Hispanic origin, age, and most serious 

commitment offense. The within-state sampling 

rate for female prisoners was double that of males 

to improve the precision of female recidivism and 

desistance estimates. The combined number of persons 

in the 30 state samples totaled 70,878 individuals who 

were representative of all state prisoners released in 

those states during 2005. (This number dropped to 

67,966 after accounting for those who died during the 

subsequent 9 years, lacked criminal history records, 

or had invalid release records.) Each prisoner in the 

sample was assigned a weight based on the probability 

of selection within the state.

Collecting and processing criminal records for 

recidivism research

In 2008, BJS entered into a data-sharing agreement 

with the FBI’s Criminal Justice Information Services 

Division and the International Justice and Public Safety 

Network (Nlets) to allow BJS access to criminal history 

records through the FBI’s Interstate Identification 

Index (III). Additionally, a data security agreement was 

executed between BJS, the FBI, and Nlets to define the 

operational and technical practices used to protect the 

confidentiality and integrity of the criminal history 

data during data exchange, processing, and storage.

The FBI’s III is an automated pointer system that 

allows authorized agencies to determine whether any 

state repository has criminal history records on an 

individual. Nlets is a computer-based network that is 

responsible for interstate transmissions of federal and 

state criminal history records. It allows authorized 

users to query III and send requests to states holding 

criminal history records on an individual. The FBI also 

Map 1

States included in the BJS recidivism study of prisoners 

released in 2005

WA

OR

CA

NJ

ND

TX

OK

CO

NE

UT NV

GA LA

AR

MI

IA

MN

SD NY

PA OH

WV VA MD

FL

SC

NC

MO

HI

AK

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 16

maintains criminal history records for which it has sole 

responsibility for disseminating, such as information 

on federal arrests. The identification bureaus that 

operate the central repositories in each state respond 

automatically to requests over the Nlets network with 

an individual’s criminal history record. Put together, 

these requests represent the individual’s national 

criminal history record.

Once BJS received approval from the FBI’s Institutional 

Review Board to conduct this recidivism study on 

prisoners released in 2005, Nlets transmitted the 

state and FBI identification numbers on the sampled 

prisoners to the FBI’s III system to collect the criminal 

history records on behalf of BJS. The criminal history 

records include information from the state of release 

and all other states in which the sampled prisoners 

had been arrested both prior to the release in 2005 

and afterwards.

Nlets parsed the fields from individual criminal 

history records into a relational database consisting 

of state- and federal-specific numeric codes and 

text descriptions (e.g., criminal statutes and case 

outcome information) into a uniform record layout. 

NORC at the University of Chicago assisted BJS 

with standardizing the content of the relational 

database into a uniform coding structure to support 

national-level recidivism research. 

BJS conducted a series of data-quality checks on 

the criminal history records to assess the accuracy 

and completeness of the information, including 

an examination of the response messages and the 

identification numbers that failed to match a record 

in III. To ensure that the correct records were received 

on the released prisoners using their fingerprint-based 

identification numbers, BJS compared other individual 

identifiers in the NCRP data to those reported in the 

criminal history records. For 98% of cases, a released 

prisoner’s date of birth in the NCRP data exactly 

matched the prisoner’s birthdate in the criminal 

history records. Nearly 100% (99.9%) of the NCRP and 

criminal history records matched prisoner sex, race, 

and Hispanic origin.

BJS reviewed the criminal history records for 

differences and inconsistencies in reporting practices 

and noticed some variations across states. During 

data processing and analysis, steps were taken to 

standardize the information and to minimize the 

impact these variations had on the overall recidivism 

and desistance estimates. For example, administrative 

(e.g., a criminal registration or the issuance of a 

warrant) and procedural (e.g., transferring a suspect to 

another jurisdiction) records embedded in the criminal 

history data that did not refer to an actual arrest were 

identified and removed. Traffic offenses (except for 

vehicular manslaughter, driving while intoxicated, and 

hit-and-run) were also excluded because the reporting 

of these events in the criminal history records varied 

widely by state.

Deaths during the follow-up period

BJS documented that 2,173 of the 70,878 sampled 

prisoners died during the 9-year follow-up period, 

and BJS removed these cases from the recidivism and 

desistance analysis along with four additional cases 

that were determined to be invalid release records. The 

fingerprint-verified death notices obtained through 

the FBI’s III system were used to identify some of 

the sampled prisoners who died within the 9 years 

following release in 2005. Additional deaths were 

identified through the Social Security Administration’s 

(SSA) public Death Master File (DMF). While the 

public DMF provided a more complete source of death 

information than the FBI’s III system, the public DMF 

provided death information only for the years 2005 to 

2011. Therefore, the identification of those who died 

between 2012 and 2014 was limited to the FBI’s III 

data, which included only fingerprint-verified deaths.

The number of released prisoners who were identified 

as dead between 2005 and 2011 in the public DMF 

is an undercount of the actual number of deaths 

within the sample. Due to state disclosure laws, the 

public DMF does not include information on certain 

protected state death records received via SSA’s 

contracts with the states. Beginning in 2011, the SSA 

removed more than 4 million state-reported death 

records from the public DMF and began adding fewer 

records to the public DMF. As a result, the public DMF 

contains an undercount of annual deaths. 

The extent to which the public DMF undercounts 

the annual number of deaths is not exactly known. 

Analyses of deaths in the public DMF compared to 

those reported by the Centers for Disease Control 

and Prevention’s (CDC) mortality counts suggest that 

the public DMF undercounted the overall number of 

deaths in the United States by about 10% in 2005. The 

undercount increased during succeeding years, and as 

of 2010, the public DMF contained less than half (45%) 

of the deaths reported by the CDC. If the number 

of released prisoners who died during the follow-up 
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 17

period and were removed from the recidivism and 

desistance analysis were adjusted to account for this 

undercount, the estimated cumulative recidivism rate 

would likely increase by about one percentage point.

Missing criminal history records

Among the 68,701 sampled prisoners not identified 

as deceased during the follow-up period, BJS did not 

receive criminal history records on 735 prisoners, 

either because the state departments of correction 

were unable to provide their FBI or state identification 

number or because the prisoner had an identification 

number that did not link to a criminal history record 

either in the FBI or state record repositories. To 

account for the missing criminal history records and 

to ensure the recidivism and desistance statistics 

were representative of all 68,701 prisoners in the 

analysis, BJS developed weighting class adjustments to 

account for those prisoners without criminal history 

information to reduce nonresponse bias. 

To create the statistical adjustments, the 68,701 

sampled prisoners were stratified into groups by 

crossing the two categories of sex (male or female), 

five categories of age at release (24 or younger, 25 to 

29, 30 to 34, 35 to 39, or 40 or older), four categories 

of race/Hispanic origin (non-Hispanic white, 

non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, or other race), and four 

categories of the most serious commitment offense 

(violent, property, drug, or public order). Within each 

of the subgroups, statistical weights were applied to 

the data of the 67,966 prisoners with criminal history 

information to allow their data to represent the 

735 prisoners without criminal history information.

Conducting tests of statistical significance

This study was based on a sample, not a complete 

enumeration, so the estimates are subject to sampling 

error. One measure of the sampling error associated 

with an estimate is the standard error. The standard 

error can vary from one estimate to the next. In 

general, an estimate with a smaller standard error 

provides a more reliable approximation of the true 

value than an estimate with a larger standard error. 

Estimates with relatively large standard errors should 

be interpreted with caution. BJS conducted tests to 

determine whether differences in the estimates were 

statistically significant once sampling error was taken 

into account.

All differences discussed in this report are statistically 

significant at the 95% confidence interval level. 

Standard errors were generated using Stata, a statistical 

software package that calculates sampling errors for 

data from complex sample surveys.

Offense definitions

Violent offenses include homicide, rape or sexual 

assault, robbery, assault, and other miscellaneous or 

unspecified violent offenses.

Property offenses include burglary, fraud or forgery, 

larceny, motor vehicle theft, and other miscellaneous or 

unspecified property offenses.

Drug offenses include possession, trafficking, and 

other miscellaneous or unspecified drug offenses.

Public order offenses include violations of the peace or 

order of the community or threats to the public health 

or safety through unacceptable conduct, interference 

with a governmental authority, or the violation of civil 

rights or liberties. This category includes weapons 

offenses, driving under the influence, probation and 

parole violation, obstruction of justice, commercialized 

vice, disorderly conduct, and other miscellaneous or 

unspecified offenses.

Arrests for probation and parole violations

In this report, arrests for probation and parole 

violations were included as public order offenses. 

Excluding arrests for probation and parole violations 

from the analysis would have had only a small impact 

on the recidivism rates. Excluding probation and 

parole violations from the annual arrest percentages, 

39.5% of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 were 

arrested in year-1, 34.3% were arrested in year-2, 31.5% 

in year-3, 29.7% in year-4, 28.2% in year-5, 25.9% in 

year-6, 25.9% in year-7, 24.6% in year-8, and 23.0% 

in year-9. Overall, excluding probation and parole 

violations, 82.4% of prisoners released in 30 states 

in 2005 were arrested within 9 years. In other words, 

99% of prisoners who were arrested during the 9-year 

follow-up period were arrested for an offense other 

than a probation or parole violation.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 18

Appendix table 1

Number of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005

State

Number of 

released prisonersa Number of sample cases 

Released prisoners included in the studyb Criminal history record collected

Weighted total Sample size Number Percent

All released prisoners 412,731 70,878 401,288 68,701 67,966 98.9%

Alaska 1,827 1,158 1,707 1,082 1,062 98.2

Arkansas 10,844 2,785 10,426 2,675 2,618 97.9

California 107,633 4,604 105,392 4,511 4,510 100

Colorado 8,277 2,351 7,942 2,254 2,247 99.7

Florida 31,537 3,350 30,636 3,253 3,240 99.6

Georgia 12,321 2,763 12,011 2,687 2,592 96.5

Hawaii 1,041 793 1,016 774 767 99.1

Iowa 4,607 1,897 4,406 1,816 1,810 99.7

Louisiana 12,876 2,806 12,422 2,712 2,697 99.4

Maryland 10,200 2,597 9,769 2,488 2,468 99.2

Michigan 12,177 2,603 11,633 2,490 2,471 99.2

Minnesota 4,619 1,897 4,570 1,877 1,873 99.8

Missouri 15,997 2,919 15,404 2,810 2,805 99.8

Nebraska 1,386 966 1,364 951 951 100

Nevada 5,022 1,973 4,930 1,935 1,787 92.4

New Jersey 13,097 2,697 12,964 2,666 2,622 98.3

New York 23,963 3,532 23,226 3,433 3,433 100

North Carolina 11,743 2,748 11,229 2,626 2,616 99.6

North Dakota 884 686 865 671 663 98.8

Ohio 15,832 3,070 15,555 3,015 2,927 97.1

Oklahoma 7,768 2,345 7,424 2,240 2,169 96.8

Oregon 4,731 1,955 4,595 1,900 1,898 99.9

Pennsylvania 12,452 2,840 11,884 2,712 2,685 99.0

South Carolina 10,046 2,537 9,971 2,516 2,500 99.4

South Dakota 2,159 1,285 2,142 1,275 1,268 99.5

Texas 43,532 3,779 42,770 3,713 3,713 100

Utah 3,000 1,569 2,951 1,543 1,534 99.4

Virginia 12,776 2,719 12,148 2,585 2,574 99.6

Washington 8,439 2,443 8,093 2,343 2,341 99.9

West Virginia 1,945 1,211 1,842 1,148 1,125 98.0 aExcludes released prisoners whose sentence was less than one year; releases to custody, detainer, or warrant; releases due to death; escapes or absent 

without leave; transfers; administrative releases; and releases on appeal. The first release was selected for persons released multiple times during 2005.

bExcludes 2,173 sampled prisoners (when weighted representing 11,443 individuals) who died during the follow-up period and four cases determined to 

be invalid release records.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 19

Appendix table 2

Standard errors for table 1: Characteristics of prisoners 

released in 30 states in 2005

Characteristic Standard error

Sex

Male 0.003%

Female 0.003

Race/Hispanic origin

White 0.28%

Black/African American 0.27

Hispanic/Latino 0.27

Other 0.09

American Indian or Alaska Native 0.05

Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander 0.06

Age at release

24 or younger 0.22%

25–29 0.24

30–34 0.22

35–39 0.22

40 or older 0.28

Most serious commitment offense 

Violent 0.26%

Property 0.28

Drug 0.28

Public order 0.18

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Appendix table 3

Standard errors for table 2, figure 2, and figure 4: Cumulative percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 

who were arrested within or outside the state of release, by year after release

Within or outside the state of release Outside the state of release

Year after release Percent arrested Percent not arrested Percent arrested Percent not arrested

1 0.29% 0.29% 0.09% 0.11%

2 0.27 0.21 0.11 0.09

3 0.25 0.15 0.13 0.09

4 0.23 0.11 0.15 0.08

5 0.22 0.09 0.16 0.08

6 0.21 0.07 0.17 0.08

7 0.21 0.06 0.18 0.07

8 0.20 0.05 0.19 0.07

9 0.20 0.05 0.19 0.07

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Appendix table 4

Standard errors for figure 3: Percent of prisoners 

released in 30 states in 2005 who were arrested after 

release, by year after release

Year of first arrest Estimate Standard error

1 43.9% 0.29%

2 16.2 0.21

3 8.3 0.15

4 5.1 0.11

5 3.5 0.09

6 2.3 0.07

7 1.7 0.06

8 1.3 0.05

9 1.0 0.05

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners 

Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 20

Appendix table 5

Standard errors for table 3, figure 5, and figure 6: Percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who were 

arrested after release, by prisoner characteristics and year of first arrest

Characteristic

Total arrested 

within 9 years Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

All released prisoners 0.20% 0.29% 0.21% 0.15% 0.11% 0.09% 0.07% 0.06% 0.05% 0.05%

Sex

Male 0.22% 0.32% 0.23% 0.16% 0.12% 0.10% 0.08% 0.07% 0.06% 0.05%

Female 0.39 0.49 0.37 0.26 0.22 0.19 0.14 0.13 0.11 0.12

Age at release

24 or younger 0.36% 0.68% 0.50% 0.32% 0.26% 0.23% 0.14% 0.15% 0.10% 0.07%

25–39 0.27 0.41 0.30 0.22 0.16 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.08 0.06

25–29 0.40 0.68 0.48 0.36 0.26 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.14 0.10

30–34 0.52 0.76 0.53 0.35 0.30 0.23 0.19 0.15 0.18 0.12

35–39 0.51 0.77 0.54 0.41 0.28 0.24 0.17 0.15 0.12 0.11

40 or older 0.42 0.54 0.38 0.27 0.21 0.18 0.15 0.11 0.09 0.12

Race/Hispanic origin

White 0.31% 0.44% 0.31% 0.23% 0.17% 0.14% 0.10% 0.11% 0.08% 0.08%

Black/African American 0.25 0.42 0.31 0.21 0.18 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.07

Hispanic/Latino 0.67 0.93 0.64 0.45 0.33 0.29 0.24 0.12 0.19 0.14

Other 1.37 1.98 1.55 1.00 0.55 0.48 0.16 0.33 0.20 0.20

American Indian or

Alaska Native 1.49 2.21 1.65 0.79 0.46 0.41 0.22 0.41 0.26 0.28

Asian, Native Hawaiian,

or Other Pacific 

Islander 2.58 3.77 2.99 2.09 0.70 0.22 0.34 0.54 0.33 0.39

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Appendix table 6

Standard errors for table 4: Post-release arrests of prisoners released in 30 states 

in 2005, by year after arrest

Year after arrest

Number of 

arrests during 

year/period

Percent of arrests 

during year/period

Cumulative number 

of all arrests since 

release

Cumulative percent

of all arrests since 

release

Total 15,295 ~ ~ ~

Years 1–3 6,173 0.22% ~ ~

1 2,941 0.13 2,941 0.13

2 2,910 0.13 4,675 0.19

3 2,819 0.12 6,173 0.22

Years 4–6 6,223 0.19% ~ ~

4 2,838 0.11 7,704 0.24

5 3,009 0.12 9,317 0.24

6 2,613 0.11 10,530 0.23

Years 7–9 7,295 0.23% ~ ~

7 2,982 0.12 12,006 0.20

8 3,212 0.13 13,570 0.14

9 3,333 0.14 15,295 ~

~Not applicable.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 

data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 21

Appendix table 7

Standard errors for table 5, figure 1, figure 7, and figure 8: Annual arrest percentage of prisoners released 

in 30 states in 2005, by prisoner characteristics

Characteristic Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

All released prisoners 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28% 0.27% 0.27%

Sex

Male 0.32% 0.32% 0.32% 0.32% 0.31% 0.31% 0.31% 0.30% 0.30%

Female 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.44

Age at release

24 or younger 0.68% 0.69% 0.68% 0.67% 0.68% 0.66% 0.67% 0.65% 0.64%

25–39 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.41 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.39

25–29 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.63

30–34 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.70 0.67

35–39 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.71 0.72

40 or older 0.54 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.47

Race/Hispanic origin

White 0.44% 0.44% 0.43% 0.43% 0.42% 0.41% 0.41% 0.40% 0.40%

Black/African American 0.42 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.40 0.41 0.40 0.39

Hispanic/Latino 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.86 0.85 0.83 0.83

Other 1.98 1.99 1.94 1.87 1.83 1.90 1.86 1.90 1.70

American Indian or

Alaska Native 2.21 2.22 2.22 2.01 2.06 2.18 2.21 2.13 1.83

Asian, Native Hawaiian,

or Other Pacific Islander 3.77 3.86 3.50 3.64 3.49 3.58 3.50 3.66 3.14

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

Appendix table 8

Standard errors for table 6, figure 9, and figure 10: Annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 30 states in 

2005, by most serious commitment offense and type of post-release offense

Most serious commitment 

offense Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

Any arrest after release

All released prisoners 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29% 0.28% 0.28% 0.28% 0.27% 0.27%

Violent 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.53

Property 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.52

Drug 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.51 0.51 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.47

Public order 0.78 0.77 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.69

Violent arrest after release

All released prisoners 0.18% 0.17% 0.17% 0.17% 0.16% 0.15% 0.16% 0.15% 0.14%

Violent 0.39 0.37 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.29

Property 0.34 0.29 0.30 0.32 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.28 0.28

Drug 0.27 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.27 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.22

Public order 0.49 0.45 0.44 0.46 0.43 0.42 0.40 0.40 0.36

Arrest after release for same type as most

 serious commitment offense

All released prisoners 0.26% 0.24% 0.23% 0.22% 0.22% 0.21% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%

Violent 0.39 0.37 0.34 0.36 0.37 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.29

Property 0.51 0.45 0.43 0.44 0.42 0.40 0.39 0.40 0.39

Drug 0.48 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.36 0.36 0.37

Public order 0.77 0.73 0.70 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.63 0.63 0.60

Arrested after release for different type of

 offense than most serious commitment offense

All released prisoners 0.29% 0.29% 0.28% 0.28% 0.27% 0.27% 0.27% 0.26% 0.26%

Violent 0.60 0.58 0.57 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.52

Property 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.51

Drug 0.53 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.47 0.47 0.45 0.44

Public order 0.72 0.67 0.64 0.64 0.65 0.62 0.63 0.61 0.62

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 22

APPENDIX TABLE 9

Standard errors for table 7: Cumulative percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who were arrested 

following release, by most serious commitment offense and type of post-release arrest offense

Most serious commitment 

offense Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9

Any arrest after release

All released prisoners 0.29% 0.27% 0.25% 0.23% 0.22% 0.21% 0.21% 0.20% 0.20%

Violent 0.60 0.57 0.54 0.52 0.49 0.47 0.46 0.45 0.45

Property 0.55 0.49 0.44 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.33

Drug 0.53 0.49 0.45 0.42 0.40 0.38 0.37 0.36 0.35

Public order 0.78 0.75 0.70 0.66 0.63 0.61 0.58 0.57 0.56

Violent arrest after release

All released prisoners 0.18% 0.22% 0.25% 0.27% 0.28% 0.28% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29%

Violent 0.39 0.49 0.53 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59

Property 0.34 0.41 0.46 0.49 0.52 0.53 0.55 0.55 0.56

Drug 0.27 0.36 0.42 0.45 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.51

Public order 0.49 0.60 0.66 0.71 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.76 0.76

Arrest after release for same type as most

 serious commitment offense

All released prisoners 0.26% 0.29% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.29% 0.29% 0.29%

Violent 0.39 0.49 0.53 0.56 0.58 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.59

Property 0.50 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.54

Drug 0.48 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.51

Public order 0.77 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.67 0.65

Arrested after release for different type of

 offense than most serious commitment offense

All released prisoners 0.29% 0.28% 0.26% 0.25% 0.25% 0.24% 0.23% 0.23% 0.22%

Violent 0.60 0.59 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47

Property 0.56 0.52 0.48 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.40 0.39 0.38

Drug 0.53 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.45 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.41

Public order 0.72 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.71 0.70

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.

APPENDIX TABLE 10

Standard errors for table 8: Annual arrest percentage of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005, by whether arrested 

within or outside the state of release 

Year after release

All released prisoners Among released prisoners arrested 

during the year, percent arrested Outside state of release Within or outside state of release outside of state of release

1 0.09% 0.29% 0.20%

2 0.09 0.29 0.23

3 0.09 0.29 0.27

4 0.09 0.29 0.29

5 0.09 0.28 0.31

6 0.10 0.28 0.33

7 0.10 0.28 0.35

8 0.09 0.27 0.36

9 0.10 0.27 0.40

Arrested anytime in follow-up period 0.19% 0.20% ~

~Not applicable.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
2018 UPDATE ON PRISONER RECIDIVISM: A 9-YEAR FOLLOW-UP PERIOD (2005-2014) | MAY 2018 23

APPENDIX TABLE 12

Estimates and standard errors for figure 12: Prisoners released in 30 states 

in 2005 who were not arrested in the remainder of the follow-up period, by 

year after release

Number Percent

Year after release Estimate Standard error Estimate Standard error

1 86,000 927 21.5% 0.23%

2 105,000 1,000 26.2 0.25

3 126,000 1,069 31.4 0.27

4 150,000 1,129 37.3 0.28

5 178,000 1,173 44.3 0.29

6 209,000 1,193 52.1 0.30

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 

2005–2014.

APPENDIX TABLE 11

Estimates and standard errors for figure 11: Percent of prisoners released in 30 states in 2005 who were arrested 

after release, by year of arrest and whether arrested during subsequent years

Total Arrested again during a subsequent year Not arrested during a subsequent year

Year after release Estimate Standard error Estimate Standard error Estimate Standard error

1 43.9% 0.29% 38.9% 0.29% 4.9% 0.14%

2 37.7 0.29 33.0 0.29 4.7 0.12

3 34.3 0.29 29.1 0.28 5.2 0.13

4 31.9 0.29 26.0 0.28 5.9 0.14

5 30.1 0.28 23.2 0.27 6.9 0.15

6 28.0 0.28 20.1 0.26 7.8 0.16

7 27.4 0.28 17.2 0.25 10.2 0.18

8 25.9 0.27 12.2 0.22 13.7 0.20

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of State Prisoners Released in 2005 data collection, 2005–2014.
Office of Justice Programs

Building Solutions • Supporting Communities • Advancing Justice

www.ojp.usdoj.gov

NCJ250975

The Bureau of Justice Statistics of the U.S. Department of Justice is the 

principal federal agency responsible for measuring crime, criminal 

victimization, criminal offenders, victims of crime, correlates of crime, and the 

operation of criminal and civil justice systems at the federal, state, tribal, and 

local levels. BJS collects, analyzes, and disseminates reliable and valid statistics 

on crime and justice systems in the United States, supports improvements 

to state and local criminal justice information systems, and participates with 

national and international organizations to develop and recommend national 

standards for justice statistics. Jeffrey H. Anderson is director.

This report was written by Mariel Alper, Joshua Markman, and Matthew R. 

Durose. Stephanie Mueller and Matthew R. Durose verified the report.

Brigitte Coulton and Jill Thomas edited the report. Steven Grudziecki 

produced the report.

May 2018, NCJ 250975