The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION
William H. Pryor, Jr. 

Acting Chair

Rachel E. Barkow

Commissioner

Charles R. Breyer

Commissioner

Danny C. Reeves

Commissioner

Zachary C. Bolitho

Ex Officio

J. Patricia Wilson Smoot

Ex Officio

Kenneth P. Cohen 

Staff Director

Glenn R. Schmitt

Director

Office of Research and Data

December 2017

United States Sentencing Commission

One Columbus Circle, N.E.

Washington, DC 20002

www.ussc.gov
Kim Steven Hunt, Ph.D., Senior Research Associate, Office of Research and Data 

Billy Easley II, J.D., Legislative Affairs Specialist, Office of Legislative and Public Affairs
TABLE OF CONTENTS

Part One

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1

Part Two

DEFINING AND MEASURING 

RECIDIVISM

5

Part Three

INTRODUCTION TO AGE AND 

RECIDIVISM AMONG FEDERAL 

OFFENDERS

9

Part Four

CHARACTERISTICS OF 

RECIDIVISM STUDY GROUP

13

i The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 
Part Five

RECIDIVISM RATES AMONG 

FEDERAL OFFENDERS BY AGE

21

Part Six

CONCLUSION

29

Part Seven

ENDNOTES

33

Part Eight

APPENDIX

37

The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders ii

 

 

 Executive Summary

Part One
Part One: 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

2 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Introduction

The United States Sentencing Commission1 began studying recidivism 

shortly after the enactment of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 (“SRA”), 

and has issued several recent publications examining recidivism rates 

among federal offenders released in 2005. The Commission’s first report in 

this series, Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A Comprehensive Overview

(“Recidivism Overview Report”), was released in March 2016 and discussed 

this research project in greater detail. As noted in the previous reports in this 

series,2 recidivism information is central to three of the primary purposes of 

punishment described in the SRA—specific deterrence, incapacitation, and 

rehabilitation—all of which focus on prevention of future crimes through 

correctional intervention. Information about recidivism is also relevant to the 

Commission’s obligation to formulate sentencing policy that “reflect[s], to the 

extent practicable, advancements in knowledge of human behavior as it relates 

to the sentencing process.”3 Considerations of recidivism by federal offenders 

were also central to the Commission’s initial work in developing the Guidelines 

Manual’s criminal history provisions4 as well as its ongoing work.5

The Commission’s current recidivism research substantially expands on the 

scope of previous Commission recidivism projects. In addition to a different set 

of offenders—U.S. citizen federal offenders released in 2005—the current study 

group (25,431 offenders) is much larger than those in previous Commission 

studies. A larger study group allows for data analysis across many different 

subgroups of federal offenders, including those sentenced under different 

provisions in the guidelines. 

This report is the fourth in this series and focuses on the relationship 

between age at release and recidivism. This report examines the impact of the 

aging process on federal offender recidivism and, once age is accounted for, the 

impact of other offense and offender characteristics. 
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 3

Key Findings

The key findings of the Commission’s study of federal offenders’ recidivism 

by age at release are that:

• Older offenders were substantially less likely than younger 

offenders to recidivate following release. Over an eight-year follow-up 

period, 13.4 percent of offenders age 65 or older at the time of release 

were rearrested compared to 67.6 percent of offenders younger than 

age 21 at the time of release. The pattern was consistent across age 

groupings, and recidivism measured by rearrest, reconviction, and 

reincarceration declined as age increased. 

• For federal offenders under age 30 at the time of release, over 

one-fourth (26.6%) who recidivated had assault as their most common 

new charge. By comparison, for offenders 60 years old or older at the 

time of release, almost one quarter (23.7%) who recidivated had a 

public order offense6 as their most serious new charge.

• Age and criminal history exerted a strong influence on 

recidivism. For offenders in Criminal History Category I, the rearrest 

rate ranged from 53.0 percent for offenders younger than age 30 at 

the time of release to 11.3 percent for offenders age 60 or older. For 

offenders in Criminal History Category VI, the rearrest rate ranged 

from 89.7 percent for offenders younger than age 30 at the time of 

release to 37.7 percent for offenders age 60 or older.

• Education level influenced recidivism across almost all 

categories. For example, among offenders under age 30 at the time 

of release, college graduates had a substantially lower rearrest rate 

(27.0%) than offenders who did not complete high school (74.4%). 

Similarly, among offenders age 60 or older at the time of release, 

college graduates had a somewhat lower rearrest rate (11.6%) than 

offenders who did not complete high school (17.2%). 

• Age exerted a strong influence on recidivism across all 

sentence length categories. Older offenders were less likely to 

recidivate after release than younger offenders who had served similar 

sentences, regardless of the length of sentence imposed. In addition, 

for younger offenders there was some association between the length 

of the original federal sentence and the rearrest rates, as younger 

offenders with sentences of up to six months generally had lower 

rearrest rates than younger offenders with longer sentences. However, 

among all offenders sentenced to one year or more of imprisonment, 

there was no clear association between the length of sentence and the 

rearrest rate.

 • For certain major offense types, the type of federal offense that 

offenders had committed also had an effect on recidivism across age 

groups. For example, firearms offenders had a substantially higher 

rearrest rate across all age categories than drug trafficking offenders, 

who in turn had a higher rearrest rate across all age categories than 

fraud offenders. For example, for offenders under age 30 at the time of 

release, the rearrest rates were 79.3 percent (firearms), 62.5 percent 

(drug trafficking), and 53.6 percent (fraud). Similarly, for offenders 

age 60 and older at the time of release, the rearrest rates were 30.2 

percent (firearms), 17.5 percent (drug trafficking), and 12.5 percent 

(fraud).

• At every age group, federal prisoners had a substantially 

lower recidivism rate than state prisoners who also were released 

in 2005 and tracked by the Bureau of Justice Statistics. For example, 

for offenders age 24 or younger at the time of release, 63.2 percent 

of federal prisoners were rearrested within five years compared to 

over four-fifths (84.1%) of state prisoners. Like federal prisoners, 

older state prisoners were less likely to recidivate than younger state 

prisoners.

 

 

 Defining and Measuring Recidivism

Part Two
Part Two: 

DEFINING AND MEASURING RECIDIVISM

6 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Defining and Measuring Recidivism

Recidivism “refers to a person’s relapse into criminal behavior, often after 

the person receives sanctions or undergoes intervention for a previous crime.”7

Measuring recidivism informs decision making about issues such as pretrial 

detention, appropriate sentence type and length, prisoner classification, prison 

programming, and offender supervision in the community. It also allows 

policymakers to evaluate the performance of the criminal justice system as 

a whole.8 Recidivism is typically measured by criminal acts that resulted 

in the rearrest, reconviction, and/or reincarceration of the offender over a 

specified period of time. These are the three recidivism measures used in this 

report, but the report primarily relies on the first—rearrest—with additional 

data regarding reconviction and reincarceration reported in the Appendix. 

Providing data about multiple measures of recidivism allows users to select the 

performance measure best suited to their outcome of interest.

Rearrest classifies a person as a recidivist if he or she has been arrested for 

a new crime after being released into the community directly on probation or 

after serving a term of imprisonment. Rearrest also includes arrests for alleged 

violations of conditions of federal probation, federal supervised release, or state 

parole. The number of rearrests in the Commission’s analysis is based on the 

number of unique arrest dates, regardless of the number of individual charges 

arising from a single arrest event. Thus, if an offender was arrested on a single 

occasion for both driving under the influence and possession of cocaine, that 

arrest date would constitute a single rearrest event.

Reconviction classifies a person as a recidivist if an arrest resulted in a 

subsequent judicial conviction.9 Violations and revocations of supervision are 

not included in reconvictions since no formal prosecution occurred. While states 

have improved the completeness of their criminal history records, a recent 

federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an 

arrest.10 Such gaps occurred in the criminal records used in this report, and lead 

to an undercounting of reconvictions, because missing dispositions for rearrests 

are treated as if reconviction and reincarceration did not occur.

Reincarceration classifies a person as a recidivist if a conviction or revocation 

resulted in a prison or jail sentence as punishment. The reincarceration measure 

counts offenders who were reported as being incarcerated by the Federal 

Bureau of Prisons, state prison, or local jail for any term of incarceration based 

on their recidivism events. Incomplete criminal records also create missing 

information about reincarceration.11

Many rearrests do not ultimately result in a reconviction or reincarceration 

for reasons relating to procedural safeguards (e.g., the suppression of evidence 

for an unconstitutional search or seizure), lack of sufficient evidence to 

convict or revoke, and prosecutorial or judicial resource limitations. To the 

extent that the rearrest event is an accurate indicator of relapse into criminal 

behavior, excluding non-conviction or non-incarceration events will result 

in underestimation of recidivism. Even using the least restrictive measure, 

rearrest, does not count the full extent of offender recidivism, as many crimes 

go unreported to police or, if reported, do not result in an arrest. For these 

reasons, no measure is perfect, and reporting several measures provides a more 

complete and nuanced picture of recidivism. The three measures overlap in 

some areas—meaning all offenders who were reconvicted or reincarcerated also 

were necessarily rearrested. Some offenders who were reconvicted, however, 

were not reincarcerated. Generally speaking, however, the measure of rearrest 

is larger than the measure of reconviction, which in turn is larger than the 

measure of reincarceration.

In undertaking its current recidivism research, the Commission selected a 

follow-up period of eight years. It considered all recidivism events (including 

felonies, misdemeanors, and “technical” violations of the conditions of 

supervision), except minor traffic offenses, which occurred over that eight-year 

period. While this report includes summary findings using all three measures 

(rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration), it primarily relies on rearrest 

data in providing more detailed information about the recidivism of federal 

offenders.
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 7

 

 

 

 

 Introduction to Age and 

 Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

 

Part Three
Part Three: 

INTRODUCTION TO AGE AND RECIDIVISM AMONG FEDERAL OFFENDERS

10 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Age and Recidivism Among Federal Offenders

This report examines the impact of the aging process on recidivism by 

federal offenders. First, recidivism rates are presented by age at release. 

Next, the time to the first recidivism event is shown by age at release for 

those offenders who recidivated. Studying the timing of recidivism can help 

in understanding the process of desistance across various age cohorts. The 

number of recidivism events and most serious type of post-release offense 

among those who recidivated by age at release are also discussed. Contrasting 

the number and nature of crimes committed across age groups may reveal more 

information about the threat to public safety posed by various age groups as 

well as the process of desisting from crime across the aging process.

The report then investigates the association between recidivism and factors 

such as criminal history, demographic factors, offense characteristics, and 

sentence length. This information is reported by age group in order to better 

distinguish the impact of these factors while controlling for age at release.

As first noted in the Recidivism Overview Report, numerous recidivism 

studies document well that older offenders are at lower risk for reoffending,12

and the Commission’s own research has confirmed this finding for federal 

offender populations.13 The Commission’s study found that among all federal 

offenders released into the community in 2005, those who were below age 21 

at release had the highest rearrest rate at over two-thirds (67.6%). Conversely, 

those oldest at age of release, over 60 years old, had the lowest recidivism rate 

(16.0 %). For each age grouping shown in the previous report, the older the age 

group, the lower the rearrest rate. The same pattern held for reconviction and 

reincarceration rates.

According to the National Institute of Justice, “the prevalence of offending 

tends to increase from late childhood, peak in the teenage years (from 15 to 

19) and then decline in the early 20s.”14 Scholars have used official arrest data 

collected by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) to construct an age-crime 

curve15 which demonstrates graphically the relationship between age and 

arrests. National arrest data collected by the FBI in the Uniform Crime Report 

(UCR) since 193016 and compiled in the FBI’s Crimes in the United States report 

since 199517 has consistently supported this conclusion concerning age and 

crime. 

Figure 1 shows a comparison of arrests by five-year age intervals beginning 

at age 20 for all 2016 U.S. arrests reported to the FBI and all adult arrests 

reported in criminal history records provided by the FBI for federal offenders 

released in 2005, by identical age groupings.18 To construct the federal offender 

data, the Commission aggregated all arrest incidents from the federal offenders’ 

entire criminal history as reported on state and federal records.19 That is, each 

arrest charge is collected and grouped by the age of the offender at the time of 

that arrest, in the same manner as set forth in Table 20 of the 2016 Crimes in the 

United States report.
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 11

Figure 1 demonstrates the close tie between older age and declining arrests, 

in both the FBI’s UCR20 and prior arrest data obtained on federal offenders from 

the FBI’s Interstate Identification Index (III) system, which is a national index 

of criminal histories. In general, the Commission found that total adult arrests 

for federal offenders were highest in the 20-24 age group, and declined sharply 

thereafter. The national FBI adult arrests in 2016 display the same pattern. 

For both federal offenders’ prior arrest history and national 2016 arrests as 

reported by the FBI, older age groups had fewer arrests. While there are vast 

differences among individuals which are not explained by age, age is generally 

a strong factor influencing the likelihood of committing crime, although the 

reasons for this are complex.21 

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and over

2016 Crime in the United States (FBI) Arrests by Age

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and over

Lifetime Arrests by Federal Offenders Released in 2005

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT and U.S. Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime 

Report, Crime in the United States (2015). The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Fig. 1 Total Arrests by Age

All 2016 U.S. Arrests Compared to Recidivism Study Offenders’ Arrest Records

Since arrests are closely associated with age, it is not surprising that federal 

offenders who enter and exit the federal system at younger ages are more 

prone to recidivate. In the following sections, this report examines the age 

and recidivism connection in greater detail. Then this report analyzes age in 

combination with other offense and offender characteristics. This combination 

in effect statistically controls for age and reveals the influence, or absence of 

influence, of other factors which may be thought to impact recidivism over and 

above the influence of aging.

 

 

 

 

 Characteristics of 

 Recidivism Study Group

 

Part Four
Part Four:

CHARACTERISTICS OF RECIDIVISM STUDY GROUP

14 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Characteristics of Recidivism Study Group

This report examines 25,431 offenders who were released into the 

community (either from federal prison or on to probation) in calendar year 

2005 and, as discussed in the Recidivism Overview Report, were federal 

offenders:

• who are citizens;

• who re-entered the community after discharging their 

 sentences of incarceration or by commencing a term of 

probation in 2005;

• whose pre-sentence investigation report was submitted to the 

Commission;

• who have valid FBI numbers which could be located in criminal 

history repositories (in at least one of the 50 states, DC, or 

federal records);

• who were not reported dead, escaped, or detained; and

• whose federal sentence was not vacated.

The advantages of this large study group are substantial. Having several 

thousand offenders allows more precise estimates of recidivism rates across 

different subgroups. For example, there are 1,048 released offenders who were 

older than 60 years of age.

Offender Demographics

The largest age cohort in this study was those offenders aged 30 to 34 

(18.3% of the total) at the time they were released from federal custody into 

the community (Figure 2). The next largest cohorts at time of release were 

offenders aged 25 to 29 (16.4%) and 35 to 39 (15.3%).

Among the racial and ethnic groups analyzed, most White offenders were 

40 years or older (51.6%) at the time of their release (Figure 3). This is the 

only racial group in the study with more than half of offenders over the age of 

40. Black and Hispanic offenders were concentrated in the younger than 40 age 

cohorts, with Hispanic offenders the youngest of all racial groups (70.9% were 

younger than 40 at the time of release). The Other race category, which includes 

American Indians, Alaskan Natives and Asians were also mostly below age 40 

(62.9%). 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The

Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the

analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger than 21 Years

1.6%

(n=398)

21 to 24 Years

8.8%

(n=2,234)

25 to 29 Years

16.4%

(n=4,164)

30 to 34 Years

18.3%

(n=4,635)

35 to 39 Years

15.3%

(n=3,888)

40 to 44 Years

13.1%

(n=3,325)

50 to 54 Years

6.8%

(n=1,734)

45 to 49 Years

10.1%

(n=2,569)

55 to 59 Years

4.9%

(n=1,235)

60 to 64 Years

2.6%

(n=668)

65 Years or 

Older

2.1%

(n=536)

Fig. 2 Age at Release for Recidivism Study Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were 

missing information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger 

than 30 

Years

20.5%

30 to 39 

Years

27.9%

40 to 49 

Years

27.8%

50 to 59 

Years

16.2%

60 Years 

or Older

7.6%

White 

n=11,074

Younger than 

30 Years

28.0%

30 to 39 

Years

41.9%

40 to 49 

Years

19.6%

50 to 59 

Years

8.4%

60 Years or 

Older

2.2%

Black 

n=8,607

Younger than 

30 Years

38.0%

30 to 39 

Years

32.9%

40 to 49 

Years

18.7%

50 to 59 

Years

7.5%

60 Years or 

Older

2.8%

Hispanic 

n=4,508

Younger than 

30 Years

34.2%

30 to 39 

Years

28.7%

40 to 49 

Years

23.9%

50 to 59 

Years

9.3%

60 Years or 

Older

3.9%

Other 

n=1,174

Fig. 3 Race of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 15

The average age of offenders at the time of release increased as educational 

level increased (Figure 4). Offenders who did not complete high school were 

the youngest group at the age of release, with 68.5 percent below the age of 40. 

College graduates were significantly older on average than offenders in other 

educational cohorts, with around 71.0 percent of college graduates age 40 or 

older. 

Fig. 4 Education of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger 

than 30 

Years

35.5%

30 to 39 

Years

33.0%

40 to 49 

Years

19.4%

50 to 59 

Years

8.1%

60 Years or 

Older

4.0%

Younger than 

30 Years

25.9%

30 to 39 

Years

35.1%

40 to 49 

Years

24.9%

50 to 59 

Years

10.2%

60 Years or 

Older

3.8%

High School Graduate 

n=9,309

Younger than 

30 Years

21.7%

30 to 39 

Years

35.6%

40 to 49 

Years

24.3%

50 to 59 

Years

13.8%

60 Years or 

Older

4.6%

Some College 

n=5,399 Younger 

than 30 

Years

5.9%

30 to 39 

Years

23.0%

40 to 49 

Years

28.9%

50 to 59 

Years

29.3%

60 Years or 

Older

12.8%

College Graduate 

n=1,879

Less Than High School 

n=8,641

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger than 

30 Years

25.8%

30 to 39 Years

34.2%

40 to 49 

Years

23.1%

50 to 59 Years

11.8%

60 Years or 

Older

5.1%

Male

n=20,723

Younger than 

30 Years

31.2%

30 to 39 Years

30.7%

40 to 49 

Years

23.9%

50 to 59 Years

11.1%

60 Years or 

Older

3.2%

Female

n=4,654

Fig. 5 Gender of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

Female offenders were slightly younger on average than male offenders 

at the time of release (Figure 5). Specifically, a greater proportion of female 

offenders were younger than 30 at the time of release, 31.2 percent, compared 

to 25.8 percent of male offenders.
Part Four:

CHARACTERISTICS OF RECIDIVISM STUDY GROUP

16 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Over two-thirds (67.0%) of offenders subject to weapons enhancements 

were younger than age 40 at the time of release compared to 59.6 percent of 

offenders who were not subject to such enhancements (Figure 7).

Fig. 6 Primary Offense Type of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger than 

30 Years

29.4%

30 to 39 Years

38.6%

40 to 49 

Years

20.3%

50 to 59 

Years

9.0%

60 Years 

or Older

2.7%

Drug Trafficking 

n=10,577

30 to 39 Years

33.2%

40 to 49 

50 to 59 

Years

8.3%

60 Years or 

Older

3.0%

Firearms 

n=3,238

Younger than 

30 Years

14.9%

30 to 39 

Years

30.2%

40 to 49 

Years

28.4%

50 to 59 

Years

18.0%

60 Years or 

Older

8.6%

Fraud 

n=3,440

Years

22.3%

Younger 

than 30

Years

26.1%

30 to 39 

Years

34.2%

40 to 49 

Years

27.1%

50 to 59 

Years

9.8%

60 Years 

or Older

2.6%

Robbery 

n=1,098

Younger than 

30 Years

25.8%

30 to 39 

Years

27.9%

40 to 49 

Years

24.8%

50 to 59 

Years

14.5%

60 Years or 

Older

7.1%

All Other 

n=7,031

Younger than 

30 Years

33.3%

Federal Offense Type and Criminal History

Drug trafficking offenders were generally the youngest group of offenders 

at the time of release (Figure 6). Of all drug trafficking offenders, 68.0 percent 

were below the age of 40. By comparison, 66.5 percent of firearms offenders 

and 60.3 percent of robbery offenders were below the age of 40. Fraud 

offenders were the oldest group with 55.0 percent age 40 or older at the time of 

release.

Fig. 7 Weapon Enhancement of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger than 

30 Years

26.4%

30 to 39 Years

40.6%

40 to 49 

Years

21.5%

50 to 59 Years

8.9%

60 Years or 

Older

2.6%

Weapon Enhancement

n=2,498

Younger than 

30 Years

26.8%

30 to 39 Years

32.8%

40 to 49 

Years

23.4%

50 to 59 Years

12.0%

60 Years or 

Older

5.0%

No Weapon Enhancement

n=22,888
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 17

Overall, the age of offenders increased as the offenders’ prior criminal 

history increased (Figure 8). A federal offender’s prior criminal history score 

is calculated under Chapter Four of the Guidelines Manual and assigned one of 

six Criminal History Categories (CHC), CHC I through VI, with CHC VI being the 

highest prior record category.22 Category I had a larger proportion of offenders 

younger than 30 years (27.8%) than Category VI (11.1%).23 Conversely, 

Category VI had the largest group of offenders age 40 or older (47.1%).

Fig. 9 Base Offense Level of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger 

than 30 

Years

31.2%

30 to 39 

Years

37.5%

40 to 49 

Years

20.2%

50 to 59 

Years

8.5%

60 Years or 

Older

2.7%

BOL 26 to 31

n=4,463

Younger than 

30 Years

27.6%

30 to 39 

Years

29.8%

40 to 49 

Years

24.1%

50 to 59 

Years

12.9%

60 Years or 

Older

5.6%

BOL 6 to 25

n=16,937

Younger than 

30 Years

18.1%

30 to 39 

Years

45.4%

40 to 49 

Years

23.0%

50 to 59 

Years

10.0%

60 Years or 

Older

3.5%

BOL 32 to 43 

n=3,967

The offender’s base offense level is determined by applying the Chapter Two 

guideline level associated with the conviction offense (Figure 9). A high base 

offense level, defined as a base offense level of 32 or higher, was associated with 

a high percentage of offenders between the ages of 30 to 39. Offenders between 

the ages of 30 to 39 were the only age group to increase consistently across 

all three categories as shown in Figure 9, from 29.8 percent to 45.4 percent. 

Offenders younger than 30 reached a high of 31.2 percent in the base offense 

level 26 to 31 category but decreased to 18.1 percent among the most serious 

category of offenders with a base offense level between 32 and 43. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing

information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger 

than 30 

Years

27.8%

30 to 39 

Years

28.7%

40 to 49 

Years

23.1%

50 to 59 

Years

13.9%

60 Years 

or Older

6.5%

Category I

n=13,549

Younger than 

30 Years

29.0%

30 to 39 

Years

35.4%

40 to 49 

Years

21.9%

50 to 59 

Years

10.3%

60 Years or Older

3.4%

Category II

n=3,082 Younger 

than 30 

Years

30.3%

30 to 39 

Years

38.0%

40 to 49 

Years

20.7%

50 to 59 

Years

8.1%

60 Years 

or Older

2.9%

Category III

n=3,610

Younger 

than 30 

Years

28.5%

30 to 39 

Years

41.9%

40 to 49 

Years

20.0%

50 to 59 

Years

7.7%

60 Years 

or Older

2.1%

Category IV 

n=1,995 Younger 

than 30 

Years

21.8%

30 to 39 

Years

43.2%

40 to 49 

Years

25.2%

50 to 59 

Years

8.2%

60 Years 

or Older

1.6%

Category V

n=1,119

Younger than 

30 Years

11.1%

30 to 39 

Years

41.8%

40 to 49 

Years

32.6%

50 to 59 

Years

11.7%

60 Years 

or Older

2.8%

Category VI 

n=1,921

Fig. 8 Criminal History Category of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
Part Four:

CHARACTERISTICS OF RECIDIVISM STUDY GROUP

18 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Sentences Imposed

For statistical purposes, the Commission groups the type of federal sentence 

originally imposed into four categories: prison only, prison and community 

confinement, probation and confinement, and probation or fine only.24 Prison 

only offenders were the youngest group at release in the Commission’s study, 

with 61.9 percent of the offenders who received a prison only sentence under 

the age of 40 (Figure 10). Offenders who served prison and community 

confinement sentences were the oldest, with 48.1 percent age 40 or older.

The Commission also considered the length of the federal sentence imposed 

on those in the study group. Offenders serving the longest sentences were the 

oldest at time of release (Figure 11). For offenders who served a sentence of 

120 months or more, the proportion of offenders who were age 40 or older at 

the time they were released was 48.6 percent, higher than any other group. 

In contrast, among offenders who served a sentence of 60 to 119 months, the 

proportion age 40 or older was 36.3 percent, the same proportion as offenders 

who served a sentence of 24 to 59 months. 

Fig. 11 Length of Federal Sentence of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger than 

30 Years

28.1%

30 to 39 

Years

26.6%

40 to 49 

Years

26.1%

50 to 59 

Years

14.0%

60 Years 

or Older

5.3%

Up to 6 Months 

n=1,047 Younger than 

30 Years

34.7%

30 to 39 

Years

25.9%

40 to 49 

Years

25.0%

50 to 59 

Years

9.1%

60 Years 

or Older

5.3%

6 to 11 Months

n=760

Younger than 

30 Years

33.0%

30 to 39 

Years

29.6%

40 to 49 

Years

21.8%

50 to 59 

Years

11.0%

60 Years 

or Older

4.7%

12 to 23 Months

n=3,644

Younger than 

30 Years

30.7%

30 to 39 

Years

33.0%

40 to 49 

Years

21.7%

50 to 59 

Years

10.6%

60 Years or 

Older

4.0%

24 to 59 Months

n=8,011 Younger than 

30 Years

21.9%

30 to 39 

Years

41.8%

40 to 49 

Years

23.1%

50 to 59 

Years

9.8%

60 Years 

or Older

3.4%

60 to 119 Months

n=4,548 Younger than 

30 Years

7.3%

30 to 39 

Years

44.0%

40 to 49 

Years

28.8%

50 to 59 

Years

14.7%

60 Years 

or Older

5.1%

120 Months or More

n=2,521

Fig. 10 Sentence Type of Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that 

were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. Totals may not sum to 100.0% due to rounding.

Younger than 

30 Years

26.3%

30 to 39 

Years

35.6%

40 to 49 

Years

23.0%

50 to 59 

Years

11.0%

60 Years or 

Older

4.1%

Prison Only 

n=19,572 Younger than 

30 Years

26.8%

30 to 39 

Years

25.1%

40 to 49 

Years

27.5%

50 to 59 

Years

14.4%

60 Years or 

Older

6.2%

Prison/Community Split Sentence

n=973

Younger than 

30 Years

28.6%

30 to 39 

Years

25.4%

40 to 49 

Years

23.7%

50 to 59 

Years

15.0%

60 Years or 

Older

7.3%

Probation and Confinement 

n=1,191 Younger 

than 30 

Years

28.8%

30 to 39 

Years

27.4% 40 to 49 

Years

23.1%

50 to 59 

Years

14.0%

60 Years or 

Older

6.8%

Probation or Fine Only 

n=3,613
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 19

 

 

 Recidivism Rates Among

 Federal Offenders by Age

Part Five
Part Five:

RECIDIVISM RATES AMONG FEDERAL OFFENDERS BY AGE

22 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Recidivism Rates Among Federal Offenders by Age

The Commission found that younger offenders were more likely to be 

rearrested than older offenders, were rearrested faster than older offenders, 

and committed more serious offenses after they were released than older 

offenders. As shown in Table 1, the Commission’s research shows that the 

younger than 30 age group had the highest rearrest rate (64.8%) and the rate 

declined with each age group that follows to a low of 16.4 percent. Younger 

cohorts had more arrest events during the eight-year follow-up period, a median 

of three arrest events for the younger than 30 age group compared to one event 

for those age 50 and older. 

The Commission ranked new offenses in order of seriousness for those who 

reoffended. The most serious type of offense likely to cause rearrest also varied 

by age, from assault (for all age groups under the age of 50) to public order 

offenses (for age groups 50 and older).

Figure 12 identifies the median time of rearrest for each age cohort. The 

measure of time to first recidivism event can be useful in distinguishing 

offenders who recidivate early from those who eventually recidivate, but are 

apparently crime-free for a longer interval. The Commission found that the 

median amount of time between an offender’s release and his or her rearrest, 

which is highlighted on each timeline, reflected the greater tendency for 

younger cohorts to recidivate. Offenders who were younger than 30 when 

they were released had the shortest median time to rearrest (17 months). 

Conversely, the oldest offenders in the study, those 60 years and older, had the 

longest time to rearrest (28 months). 

Figure 13 presents a more detailed breakdown of rearrest rate by 11 age 

groups. The Commission’s study revealed that the rearrest rate was highest 

among offenders younger than 21 (67.6%) and those between the ages of 21 to 

24 years old (66.6%) and declined in each subsequent age group.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Younger than 30 

Years

n=6,796

30 to 39 Years

n=8,523

40 to 49 Years

n=5,894

50 to 59 Years

n=2,969

60 Years or 

Older

n=1,204

Percent 64.8% 53.6% 43.2% 26.8% 16.4%

Median Time to Recidivism Event 17 Months 22 Months 22 Months 25 Months 28 Months

Median Number of Recidivism Events 3 2 2 1 1

Most Serious Post-Release Event Assault

(26.6%, n=1,170)

Assault

(24.1%, n=1,102)

Assault

(20.3%, n=517)

Other Public 

Order Offense

(22.5%, n=179)

Other Public 

Order Offense

(23.7%, n=47)

Table 1 Overview of Age and Recidivism Study Findings

Rearrest Recidivism Measure

Fig. 12 Time to First Rearrest of Recidivism Study Offenders

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Years After Release

Younger than 30 Years, 64.8%

Age 30 to 39 Years, 53.6%

Age 40 to 49 Years, 43.2%

Age 50 to 59 Years, 26.8%

Age 60 Years or Older, 16.4%

Median time to 

recidivism

8

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were 

missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 23

The reconviction rate is highest among offenders younger than 21 (48.5%) 

and those between the ages of 21 to 24 years old (48.4%) and declined in each 

subsequent age group. Time to reconviction expanded with age and severity 

of reconviction offense declined with age, in a pattern like that shown with 

rearrest in Figure 14.25

The reincarceration rate was highest among those between the ages of 21 

to 24 years old (38.6%) and declined in each subsequent age group.26 Time 

to reincarceration expands with age and severity of reincarceration offense 

declined with age, in a pattern like that shown with rearrest in Figure 15.27

Demographics

White offenders had the lowest rearrest rate overall, starting with 59.1 

percent for the youngest age group and declining to a low of 15.7 percent in 

the 60 years or older age cohort (Figure 16 on the next page). Black offenders 

had the highest rearrest rate overall, starting with 72.7 percent in the youngest 

age cohort, which is the highest recidivism rate among all age categories. The 

other racial category, which includes American Indians, Alaskan Natives and 

Asians, had the second highest overall rearrest rate, starting with a 65.1 percent 

rearrest rate in the youngest age cohort before declining. 

Fig. 13 Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

67.6% 66.6%

63.6%

56.5%

50.1% 46.5%

38.8%

30.1%

22.2% 18.9%

13.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Younger

than 21

Years

n=398

21 to 24

Years

n=2,234

25 to 29

Years

n=4,164

30 to 34

Years

n=4,635

35 to 39

Years

n=3,888

40 to 44

Years

n=3,325

45 to 49

Years

n=2,569

50 to 54

Years

n=1,734

55 to 59

Years

n=1,235

60 to 64

Years

n=668

65 Years or

Older

n=536

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were 

missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

48.5% 48.4%

42.7%

36.0% 31.3% 30.3%

22.3% 15.9%

12.2% 11.4% 6.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Younger

than 21

Years

n=398

21 to 24

Years

n=2,234

25 to 29

Years

n=4,164

30 to 34

Years

n=4,635

35 to 39

Years

n=3,888

40 to 44

Years

n=3,325

45 to 49

Years

n=2,569

50 to 54

Years

n=1,734

55 to 59

Years

n=1,235

60 to 64

Years

n=668

65 Years or

Older

n=536

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Fig. 14 Reconviction Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release

35.7% 38.6% 33.7%

27.7%

24.2% 23.0% 17.4%

12.8% 9.0% 8.8%

4.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Younger

than 21

Years

n=398

21 to 24

Years

n=2,234

25 to 29

Years

n=4,164

30 to 34

Years

n=4,635

35 to 39

Years

n=3,888

40 to 44

Years

n=3,325

45 to 49

Years

n=2,569

50 to 54

Years

n=1,734

55 to 59

Years

n=1,235

60 to 64

Years

n=668

65 Years or

Older

n=536

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Fig. 15 Reincarceration Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Release
Part Five:

RECIDIVISM RATES AMONG FEDERAL OFFENDERS BY AGE

24 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Fig. 17 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Education and Age at Release

74.4%

62.9%

47.3%

27.0%

63.0%

55.0%

44.1%

21.5%

51.5%

45.0%

37.9%

21.2% 31.0% 30.6%

24.9%

17.2% 18.8% 16.5% 16.1% 11.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Less than High School High School Graduate Some College College Graduate

Younger than 30 Years 30 to 39 Years 40 to 49 Years 50 to 59 Years 60 Years or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

The overall rearrest rate decreased with every step of educational 

achievement (Figure 17). Every education group experienced a decline in 

rearrest rates as age increases. Offenders who did not complete high school 

generally had the highest rearrest rates in all age categories compared to 

other educational cohorts, starting with a 74.4 percent rearrest rate in the 

youngest age cohort. College graduates had the lowest rearrest rates among the 

educational groups.

Male offenders had a higher rearrest rate than female offenders in every age 

category (Figure 18). In the younger than 30 age cohort, men had a 69.5 percent 

rearrest rate compared to 47.6 percent for women. The rearrest rate declined 

for both male and female offenders with each subsequent age group.

Federal Offense Type and Criminal History

Offenders whose primary offense involved robbery or firearms had higher 

rearrest rates in all age categories (Figure 19). The Commission found that 

firearm offenders had a rearrest rate of 79.3 percent in the younger than 

30 cohort, the highest rearrest rate among all sentencing types. Robbery 

offenders, unlike all other offense types, did not experience a continuous 

decline in rearrest rates as they aged. Instead, rearrest rates increased from the 

younger than 30 age cohort (66.2%) to the 40 to 49 age cohort (71.5%) before 

experiencing a sharp decline.

Rearrest rates decline with age across every base offense level group 

analyzed (Figure 20). Comparing similar age groups across base offense levels, 

the Commission found that the lowest base offense level group had a modestly 

higher recidivism rate across most age categories than those with higher base 

offense levels. For example, in the younger than 30 age cohort, those with base 

offense levels of 25 or lower had a 66.3 percent rearrest rate, somewhat higher 

than those offenders with base offense levels of 32 or higher (60.2%).

Fig. 16 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Race and Age at Release

59.1%

72.7%

61.2% 65.1%

48.9%

59.9%

48.7% 50.5%

39.4%

52.2%

39.2% 42.0%

23.7%

36.0%

24.4% 22.9% 15.7% 19.4% 19.1%

10.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

White Black Hispanic Other

Younger than 30 Years 30 to 39 Years 40 to 49 Years 50 to 59 Years 60 Years or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Fig. 18 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Gender and Age at Release

69.5%

47.6%

56.2%

40.7%

46.4%

29.2% 29.1%

15.3% 17.1%

12.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Male Female

Younger than 30 Years 30 to 39 Years 40 to 49 Years 50 to 59 Years 60 Years or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 25

Offenders with a weapon enhancement had a higher rearrest rate than 

offenders who did not across all age groups (Figure 21). For example, federal 

offenders who were younger than 30 and had a weapon enhancement had a 

rearrest rate of 70.2 percent compared to 64.2 percent for those younger than 

30 without a weapon enhancement. 

Fig. 20 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Base Offense Level and Age at Release

66.3%

62.3% 55.7% 60.2%

52.9% 48.4%

44.3% 43.8% 37.1%

27.6% 25.7%

23.4%

16.5% 19.3%

13.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BOL 6 to 25 BOL 26 to 31 BOL 32 to 43

Younger than 30 Years 30 to 39 Years 40 to 49 Years 50 to 59 Years 60 Years or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Fig. 21 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancement and Age 

at Release

Fig. 22 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Category and Age 

at Release

Rearrest rates increased with the Criminal History Category (CHC) of 

offenders across all age groups (Figure 22). For instance, offenders who were 

younger than 30 and in CHC I had a 53 percent rearrest rate, compared to 79.5 

percent for that same age group in CHC III, and 89.7 percent for that same age 

group in CHC VI. 

Fig. 19 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Primary Offense Type at 

Sentencing and Age at Release

62.5%

79.3%

53.6%

66.2%

63.0%

52.0%

70.4%

41.8%

71.0%

50.6%

42.3%

62.8%

31.8%

71.5%

37.7%

26.8%

44.8%

19.7%

54.6%

23.3%

17.5%

30.2%

12.5%

34.5%

14.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Drug Trafficking Firearms Fraud Robbery All Other

Younger than 30 Years 30 to 39 Years 40 to 49 Years 50 to 59 Years 60 Years or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

70.2%

64.2%

57.7%

53.0% 48.9%

42.6%

27.9% 26.7%

17.2% 16.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Weapon Enhancement No Weapon Enhancement

Younger than 30 Years 30 to 39 Years 40 to 49 Years 50 to 59 Years 60 Years or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

53.0%

70.1%

79.5%

86.3% 90.6% 89.7%

35.3%

55.8%

63.7%

73.5%

79.9%

84.6%

25.9%

47.2%

54.0%

72.4% 71.3%

80.2%

16.1%

30.1%

38.4%

51.6%

58.7%

64.9%

11.3%

22.6% 25.5%

46.3% 44.4%

37.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Category I Category II Category III Category IV Category V Category VI

Younger than 30 Years 30 to 39 Years 40 to 49 Years 50 to 59 Years 60 Years or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 
Part Five:

RECIDIVISM RATES AMONG FEDERAL OFFENDERS BY AGE

26 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Federal Sentence Imposed

Offenders who received a prison only sentence had a higher rearrest rate 

than offenders who received a different form of sentence (Figure 23). For 

instance, offenders who received sentences of prison only and who were 

younger than 30 years of age had a rearrest rate of 68.6 percent compared to 

53.6 percent for offenders in the same age group who received split sentences 

and 55.4 percent for offenders in the same age group who were sentenced to 

probation and confinement. Offenders younger than 30 who were sentenced to 

probation or fine only had a rearrest rate of 51.5 percent.

Rearrest rates declined with the age at release across all sentence lengths 

(Figure 24). For example, among offenders with imprisonment sentences up to 

six months, those younger than age 30 at release had the highest rearrest rate 

(52.7%) while offenders 60 years and older at release had the lowest rearrest 

rate (20.0%). In general, there was some association between the length of 

the original federal sentence and rearrest rates. Offenders with the shortest 

imprisonment sentences, of up to six months, had the lowest rearrest rates for 

four of the five age groups studied. Offenders with sentences of 120 months 

or longer had the highest rearrest rates for two of the age groups studied and 

among the highest rearrest rates for the remaining three age groups. Among 

all offenders sentenced to one year of imprisonment or longer, the association 

between sentence length and rearrest rates was less clear. For example, for 

offenders younger than 30 at release, the rearrest rate was approximately 70 

percent regardless of the length of sentence imposed, ranging from 69.2 percent 

for offenders sentenced from 12 to 23 months of imprisonment to 68.1 percent 

for offenders sentenced to 120 months or longer, with the highest rearrest rate 

of 71.4 percent for offenders sentenced to 60 to 119 months.

Fig. 23 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Type of Federal Sentence 

Imposed and Age at Release

51.5% 55.4% 53.6%

68.6%

35.5%

44.7% 41.8%

56.9%

27.7% 26.6% 30.2%

47.9%

18.9% 19.0%

22.9%

29.6%

15.0% 9.2% 11.7%

18.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Probation or Fine Only Probation and Confinement Prison/Community Split Sentence Prison Only

Younger than 30 Years 30 to 39 Years 40 to 49 Years 50 to 59 Years 60 Years or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Fig. 24 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders by Length of Federal Sentence and 

Age at Release

52.7%

61.4%

69.2% 68.4% 71.4% 68.1%

42.5%

54.8% 52.8%

56.9% 58.7% 58.5%

28.9%

45.8% 41.5%

47.6% 50.3% 52.8%

20.4%

33.3%

24.3%

29.8% 31.8% 32.4%

20.0% 15.0% 12.3%

19.0% 17.4% 20.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Up to 6 Months 6 to 11 Months 12 to 23 Months 24 to 59 Months 60 to 119 Months 120 Months or More

Younger than 30 Years 30 to 39 Years 40 to 49 Years 50 to 59 Years 60 Years or Older

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing 

information necessary to perform the analysis. 
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 27

To compare the federal offenders in this study to offenders released from 

state custody, the Commission compared the recidivism rates for prisoners in 

the Commission’s recidivism cohort to a cohort of state prisoners released into 

the community in 2005 using a five-year follow-up period (Figure 25).28 As 

reflected in Figure 25, state prisoners had a higher rearrest rate than federal 

prisoners in every age category. Also, the gap in the rearrest rate between state 

and federal prisoners increased with each age group. Federal prisoners in the 

youngest age group had a 63.2 percent rearrest rate compared to 84.1 percent 

for state prisoners. In the oldest age group, the rearrest rate declined to 32.5 

percent for federal offenders compared to 69.2 percent for state prisoners. 

63.2%

57.6%

50.3% 44.5%

32.5%

84.1%

80.3% 77.0% 78.1%

69.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

24 Years or Younger 25 to 29 Years 30 to 34 Years 35 to 39 Years 40 Years Or Older

Federal Prisoners State Prisoners

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT and Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 

States (2005). The Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis. 

Fig. 25 Rearrest Rate of Recidivism Study Offenders for Federal and State Prisoners by Age 

at Release: Five Year Post Release

 

 

 Conclusion

Part Six
Part Six: 

CONCLUSION

30 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

Conclusion

This is the fourth report in the Commission’s ongoing recidivism study. This 

report examined the impact of the aging process on federal offender recidivism 

and the impact of other offense and offender factors once age is accounted 

for. The Commission found that older offenders are substantially less likely to 

recidivate following release compared to younger cohorts. Among offenders 

released younger than age 21, 67.6 percent were rearrested compared to 13.4 

percent of those released age 65 or older. The pattern is consistent across age 

groups, as age increases recidivism by any measure declined. Older offenders 

who do recidivate do so later in the follow-up period, do so less frequently, and 

had less serious recidivism offenses on average. 

The Commission found that age is not the only factor associated with 

recidivism. After accounting for age, criminal history as measured by the 

offenders’ Criminal History Category was closely correlated with recidivism 

rates. Demographic factors including gender (males had higher rates), race 

and ethnicity (minorities had higher rates), and education levels (those with 

lower education levels had higher rates) also stood out. Other factors found to 

be associated with recidivism rates after accounting for age include sentence 

length for offenders less than age 50: the shortest lengths are associated with 

less recidivism up to sentences of one year, beyond which recidivism rates level 

off. Some offense characteristics, in particular primary federal offense (firearms 

and robbery, for example) and weapon enhancement, are associated with higher 

recidivism rates.

The Commission will issue additional reports in this recidivism study series 

in the coming months.
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 31

 

 Endnotes

Part Seven
Endnotes

34 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

10 See U.S. Gov’t Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions 

Could Enhance The Completeness Of Records Used For Employment-Related Background 

Checks (2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

11 Id.

12 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at n.56. The relationship between age 

and propensity to commit crime was first documented in 1842. See Adolphe Quietelet, A Treatise 

On Man And The Development of His Faculties (1842). See also, https://www.nij.gov/topics/

crime/Pages/delinquency-to-adult-offending.aspx. For more recent discussion of the development 

of offending behavior, age-related risk factors, and the effects of life events on offending see D. P. 

Farrington, Developmental and life-course criminology: Key theoretical and empirical issues. The 2002 

Sutherland Award Address, 41 Criminology 221–55 (2003).

13 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 23 (Figure 11).

14 https://www.nij.gov/topics/crime/Pages/delinquency-to-adult-offending.aspx. 

However, different types of offenses peak at different ages, and individual propensities differ from 

aggregate totals. See David P. Farrington, “Age and Crime,” in 7 Crime and Justice: An Annual 

Review of Research 189 (Michael Tonry & Norval Morris, eds., 1986).

15 Farrington, supra, at 191.

16 Federal Bureau of Investigation, Uniform Crime Report, (2017), https://ucr.fbi.

gov/?came_from=https%3A//ucr.fbi.gov/word.

17 See Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crimes in the United States, https://ucr.fbi.gov/

crime-in-the-u.s.

18 Prior record data on federal offenders includes arrests reported prior to their 2005 

release as well as any arrests that may be reported post-2005, in other words the entire criminal 

record for federal offenders available at the time of Interstate Identification Index (III) data 

collection. In contrast, all the 2016 U.S. arrests are a snapshot of a single year for all offenses in the 

United States cleared through an arrest. The comparison is therefore covering widely different time 

intervals, and is presented merely to suggest that the same general relationship of age and arrests 

holds true for federal offenders as for all offenders arrested in 2016. While 2016 U.S. arrest data 

is available for juvenile arrests, state reporting in III on juveniles is often unavailable, requiring 

this comparison to adults only. To put the comparison on the same scale, five-year intervals were 

chosen, beginning with the interval from age 20 through 24.

19 For example, if an offender is reported arrested for two charges at age 20 and one charge 

at age 25, that offender adds two incidents to the age 20-24 group and one to the age 25-29 group.

20 See Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crimes in the United States 2016, at Table 20, 

Arrests by Age 2016, https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/topicpages/tables/table-20.

21 There are many theories attempting to explain this aggregate pattern of rising crime 

through teenage years followed by steady decline at some point after age 20. The age-crime curve 

Endnotes

1 The United States Sentencing Commission is an independent agency in the judicial 

branch of government. Established by the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, its principal purposes 

are (1) to establish sentencing policies and practices for the federal courts, including guidelines 

regarding the appropriate form and severity of punishment for offenders convicted of federal 

crimes; (2) to advise and assist Congress, the federal judiciary, and the executive branch in the 

development of effective and efficient crime policy; and (3) to collect, analyze, research, and 

distribute a broad array of information on federal crime and sentencing issues. See 28 U.S.C. §§ 

995(a)(14), (15), (20).

2 See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: A 

Comprehensive Overview (2016) [hereinafter Recidivism Overview Report], https://www.

ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-publications/2016/

recidivism_overview.pdf; U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism Among Federal Drug Trafficking 

Offenders (2017), https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/

research-publications/2017/20170221_Recidivism-Drugs.pdf; and U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, 

The Past Predicts the Future: Criminal History and Recidivism of Federal Offenders

(2017), https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/researchpublications/2017/20170309_Recidivism-CH.pdf.

3 28 U.S.C. § 991(b)(2).

4 See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Supplementary Report On The Initial Sentencing 

Guidelines And Policy Statements 41–44 (1987), https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/

guidelines-manual/1987/manual-pdf/1987_Supplementary_Report_Initial_Sentencing_Guidelines.

pdf [hereinafter “Supplementary Report”].

5 See, e.g., U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Recidivism Among Offenders Receiving 

Retroactive Sentencing Reductions: The 2007 Crack Cocaine Amendment (2014), https://

www.ussc.gov/research/research-publications/recidivism-among-offenders-receiving-retroactivesentencereductions-2007-crack-cocaine-amendment [hereinafter “Crack Cocaine Recidivism 

Report”] and U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, 2016 Report to the Congress: Career Offender 

Enhancements (2016), https://www.ussc.gov/research/congressional-reports/2016-reportcongress-career-offender-enhancements.

6 Public order offenses include violations of conditions of federal probation, federal 

supervised release, or state parole and crimes such as obstruction of justice and failure to appear.

7 See Nat’l Institute of Justice, U.S. Dept. of Justice, Recidivism, https://web.archive.

org/web/20160120175242/http://www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/recidivism/pages/welcome.

aspx (Jan. 20, 2016).

8 See Recidivism Overview Report, supra note 2, at 7-8.

9 Revocations were not counted as reconvictions because the offenders were not convicted 

of a new offense (even if the basis for revocation was a “new law violation”). Offenders whose terms 

of supervision were revoked and who were sentenced to imprisonment were treated as having been 

reincarcerated.
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 35

captures both the prevalence of offending (the number of people committing a criminal act) and 

the incidence (number of criminal acts those people commit). There is no single well-established 

cause of offending, and contributing factors may be both biological (e.g., brain functioning changes 

in transition from child to adult – see G. Sweeten, Alex Piquero, and L. Steinberg, Age and the 

Explanation of Crime, Revisited, 42 J. Youth and Adolescence 921–38 (2013)) and sociological 

(e.g., informal and formal bonds with others and with the community which may aggravate or deter 

offending). Travis Hirschi and Michael Gottfredson argued that the shape of the age-crime curve 

was similar across time and place, and largely unaffected by life events after childhood. Travis 

Hirschi and Michael Gottfredson, Age and the Explanation of Crime, 89 Am. J. Sociology 552-84 

(1983). They argue that individual differences are primarily explained by level of self-control and 

assert that the decline in adulthood is due primarily to reduced incidents of crime. On the other 

hand, Blumstein, Cohen, and Farrington assert that the decline in the aggregate age-crime curve 

is explained at least in part by the termination of criminal careers for most offenders by early 

adulthood. Alfred Blumstein, Jacqueline Cohen, and David P. Farrington, Criminal Career Research: 

Its Value for Criminology, 26 Criminology 1 (1988). That is, the rapid decline in the age-crime curve 

reflects desistance from crime. Sampson and Laub document termination in criminal careers for 

a sample of offenders and the mechanisms which foster the turn away from crime. See Robert 

Sampson and John H. Laub, Crime in the Making: Pathways and Turning Points Through Life

(1993) (expanding on adult choice making, arguing that different choices taken over the adult life 

course, especially good marriages and other positive turning points over the life course help explain 

desistance from crime.) Therefore, the decline in the aggregate age-crime curve may be attributable 

to former offenders who have made the necessary life course changes. See Ray Paternoster and 

Shawn Bushway, Desistance and the Feared Self: Toward an Identity Theory of Criminal Desistance, 

99 J. Crim. L. & Criminology (2006) (that desistance from crime is a choice, that offenders who 

previously identified with a criminal lifestyle and criminal associates may begin to find the costs 

of this commitment exceeded by the benefits, providing a motivation to change their lives and 

associates and desist from crime). 

22 For more information on how an offender’s criminal history is addressed under 

the sentencing guidelines, see U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Guidelines Manual, Ch. 4 (Nov. 2016) 

[hereinafter USSG].

23 For more information on the relationship between CHC and recidivism see U.S. 

Sentencing Comm’n, The Past Predicts the Future: Criminal History and Recidivism of 

Federal Offenders, supra note 2.

24 These four different sentence types correspond to the four “Zones” (A-D) in the 

Sentencing Table in the Guidelines Manual. See USSG, supra note 22, at Ch. 5, Pt. A (Sentencing 

Table); see also USSG §§5B1.1 & 5C1.1 (setting forth the sentencing options for Zones A-D). Zone 

A authorizes probation only; Zone B authorizes probation with a condition of confinement; Zone C 

authorizes a “split” sentence of imprisonment and community confinement (e.g., home detention 

or a halfway house); and Zone D authorizes sentences of imprisonment only. See USSG §§5B1.1 & 

5C1.1.

25 The shortest time to arrest leading to a reconviction (29 months) is attributed to the 

younger than 30 cohort and increases to 39 months in the last age group. The most serious type of 

offense most likely to cause reconviction also shifts with age from assault (for all age groups under 

the age of 50) to public order offenses (for age 50 to 59) or drug trafficking (for age 60 or older).

26 One exception occurs with reincarceration. Those under age 21, a small group, have a 

slightly lower rate of reincarceration (35.7%) compared to those between ages 21 and 24 (38.6%).

27 The shortest time to arrest leading to reincarceration (29 months) is attributed to the 

younger than 30 cohort and increases to 51 months in the last age group. The most serious type 

of offense most likely to cause reincarceration also shifts with age from assault (for all age groups 

under the age of 50) to public order offenses (for age 50 to 59) or drug trafficking (for age 60 or 

older).

28 Matthew Durose, Alexia Cooper, and Howard Snyder, Bureau of Justice Statistics, 

U.S. Dep’t of justice, Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns from 

2005 to 2010 (2014), http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510.pdf.
 

 
 

 Appendix

Part Eight 
Part Eight: 

APPENDIX

A-38 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. 

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of 

offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group 

because of missing information. 

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 25,386 49.3% 31.7% 24.7%

Under 30 Years of Age

Race

White 2,265 59.1% 40.8% 31.1%

Black 2,410 72.7% 51.4% 40.7%

Hispanic 1,714 61.2% 40.2% 31.9%

Other 401 65.1% 49.1% 44.1%

30-39 Years of Age % % %

Race

White 3,090 48.9% 31.9% 24.2%

Black 3,604 59.9% 36.4% 28.0%

Hispanic 1,485 48.7% 31.3% 24.7%

Other 337 50.5% 35.0% 27.9%

40-49 Years of Age % % %

Race

White 3,076 39.4% 25.7% 19.1%

Black 1,688 52.2% 30.9% 24.2%

Hispanic 843 39.2% 22.5% 17.4%

Other 281 42.0% 27.1% 23.8%

50-59 Years of Age % % %

Race

White 1,797 23.7% 12.7% 9.9%

Black 719 36.0% 18.8% 14.7%

Hispanic 340 24.4% 14.4% 11.5%

Other 109 22.9% 11.9% 9.2%

60 Years of Age or Older % % %

Race

White 846 15.7% 7.8% 5.2%

Black 186 19.4% 15.6% 12.9%

Hispanic 126 19.1% 10.3% 7.9%

Other 46 10.9% 6.5% 6.5%

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Race and Age at Release 
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders A-39

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest.

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of 

offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group 

because of missing information. 

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 25,386 49.3% 31.7% 24.7%

Under 30 Years of Age

Education

Less Than High School 3,067 74.4% 53.2% 43.6%

High School Graduate 2,412 62.9% 43.0% 33.1%

Some College 1,170 47.3% 29.7% 21.1%

College Graduate 111 27.0% 16.2% 11.7%

30-39 Years of Age % % %

Education

Less Than High School 2,849 63.0% 40.9% 32.8%

High School Graduate 3,269 55.0% 35.0% 27.0%

Some College 1,923 44.1% 26.1% 18.5%

College Graduate 433 21.5% 11.8% 7.4%

40-49 Years of Age % % %

Education

Less Than High School 1,679 51.5% 30.9% 24.0%

High School Graduate 2,319 45.0% 28.6% 22.2%

Some College 1,313 37.9% 24.1% 18.1%

College Graduate 543 21.2% 12.5% 8.7%

50-59 Years of Age % % %

Education

Less Than High School 698 31.0% 18.2% 14.6%

High School Graduate 953 30.6% 16.2% 12.5%

Some College 744 24.9% 12.2% 9.8%

College Graduate 551 16.5% 8.2% 5.8%

60 Years of Age or Older % % %

Education

Less Than High School 348 17.2% 9.5% 7.2%

High School Graduate 356 18.8% 11.2% 7.9%

Some College 249 16.1% 8.4% 6.0%

College Graduate 241 11.6% 5.8% 4.2%

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Education and Age at Release 
Part Eight: 

APPENDIX

A-40 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest.

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of 

offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group 

because of missing information. 

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 25,386 49.3% 31.7% 24.7%

Under 30 Years of Age

Gender

Male 5,342 69.5% 48.6% 39.2%

Female 1,451 47.6% 31.2% 21.7%

30-39 Years of Age % % %

Gender

Male 7,092 56.2% 35.9% 28.1%

Female 1,427 40.7% 23.7% 15.8%

40-49 Years of Age % % %

Gender

Male 4,783 46.4% 29.1% 22.8%

Female 1,110 29.1% 16.8% 10.7%

50-59 Years of Age % % %

Gender

Male 2,453 29.2% 15.5% 12.2%

Female 516 15.3% 8.7% 6.4%

60 Years of Age or Older % % %

Gender

Male 1,053 17.1% 9.4% 6.8%

Female 150 12.0% 8.0% 6.0%

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Gender and Age at Release 
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders A-41

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. 

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of 

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of 

offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group 

because of missing information. 

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 25,386 49.3% 31.7% 24.7%

Under 30 Years of Age

Primary Offense Type

Drug Trafficking 3,110 62.5% 41.2% 31.7%

Firearms 1,077 79.3% 60.2% 49.4%

Fraud 511 53.6% 36.4% 25.1%

Robbery 287 66.2% 43.2% 37.6%

All Other 1,811 63.0% 44.8% 36.2%

30-39 Years of Age % % %

Primary Offense Type

Drug Trafficking 4,078 52.0% 31.5% 23.7%

Firearms 1,074 70.4% 47.8% 39.8%

Fraud 1,037 41.8% 26.1% 18.4%

Robbery 376 71.0% 47.9% 42.8%

All Other 1,958 50.6% 32.5% 24.4%

40-49 Years of Age % % %

Primary Offense Type

Drug Trafficking 2,151 42.3% 24.5% 18.4%

Firearms 721 62.8% 40.4% 31.8%

Fraud 977 31.8% 19.2% 13.4%

Robbery 298 71.5% 51.7% 46.6%

All Other 1,745 37.7% 24.0% 18.2%

50-59 Years of Age % % %

Primary Offense Type

Drug Trafficking 952 26.8% 14.1% 11.5%

Firearms 270 44.8% 24.4% 19.3%

Fraud 618 19.7% 10.4% 7.8%

Robbery 108 54.6% 35.2% 27.8%

All Other 1,021 23.3% 12.1% 9.2%

60 Years of Age or Older % % %

Primary Offense Type

Drug Trafficking 286 17.5% 10.1% 6.6%

Firearms 96 30.2% 20.8% 15.6%

Fraud 297 12.5% 6.7% 4.7%

Robbery 29 34.5% 13.8% 13.8%

All Other 496 14.5% 7.7% 5.9%

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Primary Offense Type and 

Age at Release 
Part Eight: 

APPENDIX

A-42 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest.

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of 

offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group 

because of missing information. 

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 25,386 49.3% 31.7% 24.7%

Under 30 Years of Age

Base Offense Level

6 to 25 4,682 66.3% 46.9% 37.4%

26 to 31 1,393 62.3% 41.4% 31.2%

32 to 43 716 60.2% 38.7% 31.2%

30-39 Years of Age % % %

Base Offense Level

6 to 25 5,046 55.7% 36.6% 28.8%

26 to 31 1,673 52.9% 32.1% 23.6%

32 to 43 1,801 48.4% 27.8% 20.8%

40-49 Years of Age % % %

Base Offense Level

6 to 25 4,073 44.3% 28.0% 21.8%

26 to 31 901 43.8% 26.1% 19.8%

32 to 43 913 37.1% 21.9% 15.8%

50-59 Years of Age % % %

Base Offense Level

6 to 25 2,192 27.6% 15.1% 11.6%

26 to 31 377 25.7% 11.7% 10.1%

32 to 43 397 23.4% 12.9% 10.3%

60 Years of Age or Older % % %

Base Offense Level

6 to 25 944 16.5% 9.2% 6.9%

26 to 31 119 19.3% 10.9% 7.6%

32 to 43 140 13.6% 7.9% 5.0%

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Base Offense Level and 

Age at Release 
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders A-43

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest.

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of 

offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group 

because of missing information. 

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 25,386 49.3% 31.7% 24.7%

Under 30 Years of Age

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 6,136 64.2% 44.4% 34.9%

Weapon Enhancement 660 70.2% 48.9% 40.6%

30-39 Years of Age % % %

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 7,509 53.0% 33.7% 25.8%

Weapon Enhancement 1,014 57.7% 35.2% 27.8%

40-49 Years of Age % % %

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 5,356 42.6% 26.4% 20.2%

Weapon Enhancement 538 48.9% 30.5% 24.7%

50-59 Years of Age % % %

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 2,747 26.7% 14.2% 11.1%

Weapon Enhancement 222 27.9% 15.8% 12.2%

60 Years of Age or Older % % %

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 1,140 16.4% 9.2% 6.6%

Weapon Enhancement 64 17.2% 9.4% 9.4%

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Weapon Enhancement and Age at Release 
Part Eight: 

APPENDIX

A-44 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. 

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of 

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of 

offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group 

because of missing information. 

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 25,386 49.3% 31.7% 24.7%

Under 30 Years of Age

Criminal History Category

CHC I 3,771 53.0% 34.1% 25.4%

CHC II 895 70.1% 47.2% 35.5%

CHC III 1,095 79.5% 56.7% 46.5%

CHC IV 568 86.3% 66.9% 57.4%

CHC V 244 90.6% 73.8% 66.0%

CHC VI 214 89.7% 72.9% 61.7%

30-39 Years of Age % % %

Criminal History Category

CHC I 3,890 35.3% 19.6% 12.9%

CHC II 1,091 55.8% 32.9% 23.1%

CHC III 1,371 63.7% 40.2% 31.5%

CHC IV 835 73.5% 47.1% 39.8%

CHC V 483 79.9% 59.2% 51.6%

CHC VI 803 84.6% 63.5% 54.8%

40-49 Years of Age % % %

Criminal History Category

CHC I 3,135 25.9% 14.0% 9.4%

CHC II 674 47.2% 26.9% 18.7%

CHC III 746 54.0% 33.0% 24.5%

CHC IV 398 72.4% 49.0% 40.0%

CHC V 282 71.3% 46.5% 39.4%

CHC VI 626 80.2% 59.1% 51.9%

50-59 Years of Age % % %

Criminal History Category

CHC I 1,877 16.1% 8.1% 5.5%

CHC II 316 30.1% 13.6% 9.5%

CHC III 292 38.4% 19.9% 17.8%

CHC IV 153 51.6% 32.7% 28.1%

CHC V 92 58.7% 32.6% 29.4%

CHC VI 225 64.9% 40.0% 33.8%

60 Years of Age or Older % % %

Criminal History Category

CHC I 876 11.3% 5.9% 4.1%

CHC II 106 22.6% 12.3% 9.4%

CHC III 106 25.5% 16.0% 11.3%

CHC IV 41 46.3% 29.3% 19.5%

CHC V 18 44.4% 27.8% 22.2%

CHC VI 53 37.7% 22.6% 20.8%

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Category 

and Age at Release 
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders A-45

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. 

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of 

offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group 

because of missing information. 

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 25,386 49.3% 31.7% 24.7%

Under 30 Years of Age

Sentence Type

Probation or Fine Only 1,039 51.5% 34.2% 21.6%

Probation and Confinement 341 55.4% 34.6% 23.8%

Prison/Confinement Split 261 53.6% 34.1% 25.3%

Prison Only 5,144 68.6% 48.3% 39.5%

30-39 Years of Age % % %

Sentence Type

Probation or Fine Only 989 35.5% 20.7% 11.8%

Probation and Confinement 302 44.7% 27.8% 14.9%

Prison/Confinement Split 244 41.8% 25.4% 16.0%

Prison Only 6,971 56.9% 36.3% 28.9%

40-49 Years of Age % % %

Sentence Type

Probation or Fine Only 835 27.7% 16.9% 9.1%

Probation and Confinement 282 26.6% 14.9% 11.0%

Prison/Confinement Split 268 30.2% 17.2% 11.2%

Prison Only 4,501 47.9% 29.9% 23.8%

50-59 Years of Age % % %

Sentence Type

Probation or Fine Only 504 18.9% 8.9% 5.2%

Probation and Confinement 179 19.0% 10.6% 7.3%

Prison/Confinement Split 140 22.9% 13.6% 7.1%

Prison Only 2,145 29.6% 15.9% 13.2%

60 Years of Age or Older % % %

Sentence Type

Probation or Fine Only 246 15.0% 10.2% 6.5%

Probation and Confinement 87 9.2% 4.6% 3.5%

Prison/Confinement Split 60 11.7% 5.0% 3.3%

Prison Only 811 18.0% 9.7% 7.4%

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Sentence Type and Age at Release 
Part Eight: 

APPENDIX

A-46 The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders 

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. 

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of 

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT. The numbers in the table represent the total number of 

offenders in each grouping, not the total number of offenders that recidivated. The total number of offenders in each grouping may not add to the total study group 

because of missing information. 

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

Total 25,386 49.3% 31.7% 24.7%

Under 30 Years of Age

Length of Federal Sentence

Up to 6 Months 294 52.7% 34.7% 26.2%

6 to 11 Months 264 61.4% 43.9% 31.8%

12 to 23 Months 1,204 69.2% 48.6% 40.3%

24 to 59 Months 2,457 68.4% 48.8% 40.3%

60 to 119 Months 995 71.4% 47.8% 38.9%

120 Months or More 185 68.1% 48.1% 39.5%

30-39 Years of Age % % %

Length of Federal Sentence

Up to 6 Months 278 42.5% 25.5% 16.2%

6 to 11 Months 197 54.8% 32.0% 26.9%

12 to 23 Months 1,077 52.8% 34.6% 27.1%

24 to 59 Months 2,647 56.9% 36.8% 29.5%

60 to 119 Months 1,903 58.7% 37.2% 29.4%

120 Months or More 1,110 58.5% 36.0% 29.4%

40-49 Years of Age % % %

Length of Federal Sentence

Up to 6 Months 273 28.9% 17.6% 11.4%

6 to 11 Months 190 45.8% 23.7% 16.8%

12 to 23 Months 793 41.5% 25.5% 21.8%

24 to 59 Months 1,734 47.6% 29.1% 22.4%

60 to 119 Months 1,049 50.3% 32.6% 25.6%

120 Months or More 727 52.8% 34.4% 28.6%

50-59 Years of Age % % %

Length of Federal Sentence

Up to 6 Months 147 20.4% 12.2% 7.5%

6 to 11 Months 69 33.3% 17.4% 11.6%

12 to 23 Months 399 24.3% 16.0% 13.0%

24 to 59 Months 852 29.8% 15.1% 12.6%

60 to 119 Months 446 31.8% 16.1% 13.0%

120 Months or More 370 32.4% 17.8% 15.7%

60 Years of Age or Older % % %

Length of Federal Sentence

Up to 6 Months 55 20.0% 12.7% 9.1%

6 to 11 Months 40 15.0% 15.0% 7.5%

12 to 23 Months 171 12.3% 6.4% 5.3%

24 to 59 Months 321 19.0% 9.4% 7.5%

60 to 119 Months 155 17.4% 9.0% 6.5%

120 Months or More 129 20.9% 10.9% 8.5%

Recidivism Rates of Recidivism Study Offenders by Length of Federal Sentence 

and Age at Release 
The Effects of Aging on Recidivism Among Federal Offenders A-47

While states have improved the completeness of criminal history records, a recent federal study found significant gaps in reporting of dispositions following an arrest. 

Such gaps occur in the criminal records used in this report, and lead to an undercounting of reconvictions, since missing dispositions are treated herein as the absence 

of reconviction and reincarceration. See U.S. Government Accountability Office, Criminal History Records: Additional Actions Could Enhance the Completeness of

Records Used for Employment-Related Background Checks (February 2015), http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-162.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05_OFFUPDT and Bureau of Justice Statistics, Recidivism of Prisoners

Released in 30 States (2005).

N

Rearrest

%

Reconviction

%

Reincarceration

%

24 Years or Younger

Federal or State Prisoners

Federal Prisoners 1,916 63.2% 42.9% 35.1%

State Prisoners N/A 84.1% N/A N/A

25 to 29 Years % % %

Federal or State Prisoners

Federal Prisoners 3,489 57.6% 34.9% 28.2%

State Prisoners N/A 80.3% N/A N/A

30 to 34 Years % % %

Federal or State Prisoners

Federal Prisoners 3,966 50.3% 28.5% 22.2%

State Prisoners N/A 77.0% N/A N/A

35 to 39 Years % % %

Federal or State Prisoners

Federal Prisoners 3,249 44.5% 24.4% 19.7%

State Prisoners N/A 78.1% N/A N/A

40 Years or Older % % %

Federal or State Prisoners

Federal Prisoners 7,925 32.5% 17.3% 13.6%

State Prisoners N/A 69.2% N/A N/A

Recidivism Rates for Federal and State Prisoners by Age at Release: Five Year Post-Release