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# OAR Box 1818 Prepped by Ollie Stewart



### Document

Number: 

# 72 ) IV-A-1 Docket Number: 

# A-87-1 1

Printed 11/6/20083:12:46

PM Sheet 72 of 79P. 2



### iV . EPA-AA-SDSB-88- 0 5 Technica l Repor t

Analysi s o f Moto r Vehicl e Fue l Tank-Relate dFire s

By Kathlee nSteile n Februar y198 8

NOTIC E Technica l Report s d o no t necessaril yrepresen t fina l EP A decision s o r positions . The yar e intende dt o presen t technica l analysi s o f issue s usin g dat a whichar e currentl yavailable . Th e purpos e i nth e releas e o f suc h report s i s t o facilitat e th e exchang e o f technica l informatio nandt o informth e publi c o f technica l development s whic hma yformth e basi s fo r a fina l EP A decision , positio no r regulator yaction .

Standard s Developmen t andSuppor t Branc h Emissio nContro l Technolog yDivisio n Offic e o f Mobil e Source s Offic e o f Ai r andRadiatio n U . S . Environmenta l Protectio nAgenc yP. 3

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- Tabl e o f Content s Sectio n Pag e I . Introductio n 3 II . Summaryo f Availabl e Dat a 4 A . Moto r Vehicl e Fir e Dat a Base s 5 B . Previou s Moto r Vehicl e Fir e Analyse s 7 . III . Analysi s o f Dat a 1 2 IV . Developmen t o f 199 0 Vehicl e Fir e Dat a 1 4 V . Summaryan

d Conclusion s 1 7 Appendi xA- lP. 4

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- I . Introductio n Recentl ysevera l partie s have expresse d concernregarding the safetyo f onboard refuelin g emissio ncontrols . Thes e partie s hav e commente d tha t addin g canister-base d onboar d control s t o curren t moto r vehicle s woul d ad d som e complexit yt o the fue l systemwhic hcoul d increas e the ris k o f cras han d non-cras hfires . In a separat e analysis , EPAconducte d a n evaluation o f the safetyimplication s o f canister-base d onboard systems t o addres s the concern s raised . Thi s evaluatio n concluded tha t straightforward , reliable , relativel y inexpensive engineering solution s exis t for eac ho f the potentia l problem s identifie d an d tha t no increas e i nris k need occur o r be accepte d becaus e o f the presenc e o f a nonboar d system.[1 ] Sinc e onboard refuelin g control s wil l modif ythe fuel / evaporative system s o f moto r vehicle s an d thu s coul d hav e some impac t on the ris k o f fire , i t i s importan t t o have a baselin e assessmen t o f the ris k for curren t vehicles . Th e purpos e o f thi s technica l repor t i s t o provid e a nassessmen t o f the curren t ris k o f fue l tank-relate d fire s for moto r vehicle s whic hmee t curren t safetystandards , an d therefor e provid e a baseline fro

mwhic ht o asses s an ypotentia l chang e in ris k (increas e o r decrease ) whic hma yoccur du e t o onboard vapo r recover ysystems . Apreliminaryassessmen t o f fue l tank-relate d fire s wa s drafted an

d release d for commen t an d reviewt o agencie s wit h expertis e in thi s area.[2 ] (Thi s preliminaryassessmen t wa s als o place d i n EP

ADocke t A-87-1 1 for publi c review. ) Agencie s whichwer e asked t o reviewthi s analysi s includ e th e Nationa l Highwa yTraffi c Safet yAdministratio n (NHTSA) , the Offic e o f Moto r Carrie r Safet y(OMCS ) o f the Federa l Highway Administration , the Federa l EmergencyManagemen t Agency(FEMA) , an d th e Insuranc e Institut e for HighwaySafet y(IIHS) . Based on comment s an

d furthe r dat a received fro mthes e parties , the preliminar

yanalysi s ha s bee nrefined an d i s summarize d i nthi s technica l report.[3,4,5 ] Befor e presenting thi s analysis , i t i s importan t t o not e tha t the potentia l hazard o f fue l tank-relate d fire s ha s bee na concern i n the past . T o addres s suchconcerns , Federa l Moto r Vehicl e Safet yStandard (FMVSS ) 30 1 wa s promulgate d b ythe Departmen t o f Transportatio nin 196 7 (effective January1 , 1968 ) t o decreas e the potentia l o f cras hfires.[6 ] Thi s standar d improve d the fue l systemcrashworthines s o f passenge r car s b ylimitin

g the amoun t o f allowabl e fue l leakag e i n the event o f a

n accident . Sinc e tha t time , ther e have bee ntwo additiona l FMVS S 30 1 rulemaking s t o upgrad e the standard an d furthe r improve the fue l system integrit yo f moto r vehicles.[7,8 ] In 1975 , thi s Standard wa s substantiall y enhanced b

yextending the coverag e o f impac t type s an d applicabl e vehicles . According t o thi s upgrade d standard , FMVS S 301-75 , whic hwa s effective fo r 197 6 mode l yea r passenge rP. 5

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car s an

d 197 7 an

d 197 8 mode l yea r light-dutytrucks , al l vehicle s wit ha Gros s Vehicl e Weigh t Rating (GVWR ) o f 10,00 0 pound s o r les s mus t restric t fue l leakag e t o les s than five ounce s pe r five minute s whe n subjecte d t o a rollove r tes t following fron t an

d rear collision s at 3 0 mile s pe r hour (mph) , an d sid e collision(s ) at 2 0 mph.[7 ] Furthermore , beginning in Apri l 1977 , schoo l buse s wit ha GVW Rgreate r than10,00 0 pound s mus t mee t the sam e requirement s whe nsubjecte d t o a nimpac t wit ha contoure d moving barrie r a t an yspeed u

p t o an

d includin

g 3 0 mph , at an

ypoin t an

d angle.[8 ] Therefore , pas t concern s regarding cras hfire s have lea d t o thre e FMVS S 30 1 rulemaking s wit hincreasin g stringency . A s a resul t o f thes e variation s o f FMVS S 301 , the moto r vehicl e fir e dat a bas e i s mor e complex . Th e fir e dat a whic h exist s toda

yinclude s a mixtur e o f vehicle s o f varying mode l year s whic hcompl ywit hdifferen t version s o f FMVS S 30 1 an d in som e case s mee t no standard . Thes e dat a mus t be analyze d closel yt o asses s the fir e ris k associate d wit hcurren t moto r vehicles , t o whic hFMVS S 301-7 5 i s applicable . A s mentione d above , the purpos e o f thi s repor t i s t o analyz e the moto r vehicl e fir e dat a an d t o estimat e the curren t ris k o f fue l tank-relate d fires . Th e repor t begin s wit ha summar yo f currentl yavailabl e dat a onthe annua l numbe r o f tota l moto r vehicl e fires , post-collisio n fires , an d fue l tank-relate d fire s an d the subsequen t associate d fatalities , injurie s an

d propert ydamag e wit hthes e fires . Thi s i s followed b

ya discussio no f howthes e dat a wer e analyze d an d adjusted t o projec t the numbe r o f fue l tan k fires , fatalities , injuries , an

d propert ydamag e in199 0 an d beyon d whe nrefueling control s coul d be required.[9 ] Th e repor t close s wit ha brie f summar yo f the analysi s an d draw s som

e conclusions . II . Summar

yo f Availabl e Dat a Th e availabl e dat a onfue l tank-relate d fire s an d thei r subsequen t effect s ar e limited ; no singl e bod yo f dat a exis t whichaccuratel yassesse s the overal l hazards . Virtuall yal l o f th e availabl e dat a aris e initiall yfro mpolic e an

d fir e marshal l report s fro mdifferen t states . Whil e polic e report s fro msuchstate s a s Michigan , Illinois , Nort hCarolina , Maryland , an

d Pennsylvani a ar e quit e useful , thes e record s alone ar e no t adequat e t o characteriz e the problem . Dat a fro m thes e record s can be extrapolate d t o obtai n a n estimat e o f nationa l values . Further , the natur e an d exten t o f the fir e cras hdat a varie s in differen t stat e reports . Fo r example , som e stat e acciden t report s ar e ver yexplici t inevaluating fire s fro m fue l leakage , the typ e o f acciden t (fron t end , rear end , rollover ) an

d the acciden t severity . Other s ar e les s complet e perhap s onl yreportin g informatio n onfire s an d fatalitie s withou t muc hsupporting detai l on the caus e o r locatio n o f the vehicl e fire .P. 6

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- Th e availabl e fir e informatio nfro mpolic e an

d fir e report s ha s bee n used b ysevera l differen t moto r vehicl e safety expert s t o develop dat a base s an d othe r analyse s whic hcan estimat e th e numbe r o f fue l tank-relate d fire s an d thei r subsequen t effects . Thi s analysi s o f fue l tan k fire s use s informatio n fro

m tw o dat a bases , the Fata l Acciden t Reporting System (FARS ) an

d the Nationa l Fir e Inciden t Reporting System (NFIRS) , an

d four pas t analyse s o nmoto r vehicl e fires . Eac h o f thes e dat a base s an d analyse s wil l be describe d below , togethe r wit hthe importan t informatio n draw n fro m the source . A . Moto r Vehicl e Fir e Dat a Base s Fata l Acciden t Reporting System(FARS)[10 ] Th e Fata l Acciden t Reporting System(FARS ) i s a moto r vehicl e acciden t dat a bas e operate d an d maintaine d b

yNHTSA whic hgather s dat a on al l nationwid e police-reporte d accident s (for al l type s o f vehicles , includin g passenge r cars , light-dutytrucks , buses , an d heavy-dut yvehicles ) i nwhic ha fatalityoccurs . FAR S specifie s the occurrenc e o f fir e i n such moto r vehicl e accidents , bu t doe s no t defin e the severit yo f the fire , the caus e o f the fire , whic hvehicl e the fir e wa s initiated i n (when two o r mor e vehicle s ar e involved) , o r whethe r a fatalit ywa s cause d directl yb yfire . Sinc e the FAR S dat a represen t onl yaccident s wit hfatalities , the reporte d moto r vehicl e accident s containe d i nthi s dat a bas e ar e generall ymor e severe . Therefore , us e o f thes e dat a alon e coul d misrepresen t o r overestimat e the overal l fir e hazard fo r curren t vehicles . Nevertheless , FAR S doe s offe r som e usefu l informatio n wit h respec t t o the numbe r o f fatalitie s fro mal l moto r vehicl e accident s an

d thos e in whic ha post-collisio n fir e occurred . Th e dat a cove r vehicle s o f al l mode l year s (i.e. , bot hpre - an d post-standard vehicles) . Th e keydat a extracte d fro mthi s sourc e wer e average d ove r the time period o f 198 0 through198 4 an d ar e summarize d below :

1,60 5 annua l post-collisio n moto r vehicl e fire s in whic ha fatalit ywa s reported . 46,23 7 annua l fatalitie s resulted fro mal l moto r vehicl e accidents . 1,65 5 (3. 6 percent ) o f thes e tota l fatalitie s resulte d in accident s wher e a post-collisio n fir e occurred . Nationa l Fir e Inciden t Reporting System(NFIRS)[11 ] Th e Nationa l Fir e Inciden t Reporting System(NFIRS ) i s a fir e dat a bas e operate d an d maintaine d b

yFEM Awhic hgather s dat a on al l type s o f reporte d fires , includin g moto r vehicl e fires . (Thi s moto r vehicl e dat a ar e based o n al l type s o fP. 7

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- vehicles , includin g passenge r cars , light-dut ytrucks , buses , and heavy-dut ytrucks. ) Th e syste mreceive s a samplin g o f stat e fir e report s and extrapolate s nationa l statistic s from these . (Fo r example , NFIR S receive d abou t 4 0 percen t o f th e tota l nationwid e fire s fo r 1985. ) NFIR S supplie s dat a o n th e numbe r o f fire s and th e fatalities , injurie s an d propert y damag e i n thes e fires . Furthermore , thi s dat a bas e ca n characteriz e th e fir e informatio n b ytyp e o f vehicle , th e vehicl e are a wher e th e fir e originate d (i.e. , fue l tan k area) , and whethe r th e fir e wa s a resul t o f a collisio n o r ha d som e othe r non-collisio n cause . Fo r th e purpos e o f thi s analysis , NFIR S dat a wer e extrapolate d t o represen t nationwid e estimate s and wer e the n average d ove r th e perio d o f 198 0 throug h1985 . (Detaile d informatio n obtaine d fro mNFIR S i s presente d i n th e appendi xt o thi s report. ) Sinc e NFIR S statistic s ar e compile d o n an annua l basis , th e dat a cove r bot hpre - and post-standar d vehicles . Th e importan t moto r vehicl e fir e estimate s (expresse d a s annua l averag e value s fo r bot hcollisio n and non-collisio n fires ) fro m th e NFIR S dat a include :

488,00 0 tota l moto r vehicl e fire s (o f al l vehicl e types) . 10,80 0 moto r vehicl e fire s (2. 2 percent ) whic h originate d i n th e fue l tan k area . 23 7 fatalitie s i n moto r vehicl e fire s whic h originate d i n th e fue l tan k area . 63 1 injurie s i n moto r vehicl e fire s whic horiginate d i n th e fue l tank area . $3 2 millio n in propert ydamag e fro mmoto r vehicl e fire s whic horiginate d i n th e fue l tan k area . Th e NFIR S annua l averag e nationwid e fir e estimate s usin g dat a fro m198 1 t o 198 5 fo r post-collisio n fire s exclusivel yinclude :

1,87 1 moto r vehicl e fire s whic horiginate d i n th e fue l tan k area . 18 5 fatalitie s i n moto r vehicl e fire s whic h originate d in th e fue l tan k area . 33 6 injurie s in moto r vehicl e fire s whic horiginate d i n th e fue l tan k area . $1 4 millio n in propert ydamag e fro mmoto r vehicl e fire s whic horiginate d i n th e fue l tan k area . Anothe r acciden t dat a base , th e MC S 25 0 Acciden t Reports , whic hi s operate d an d maintaine d b

yth e Federa l Highwa y Administration/OMCS , als o report s th e occurrenc e o f moto r vehicl e fire s i n accidents . A s i s prescribe d i n th e Cod e o f Federa l Regulation s (4 9 CF R394.3) , al l heavy-dut yvehicl e accident s i n whic hdeath , bodil yinjury , o r propert ydamag e o f $440 0 o r greate r hav e occurre d mus t b e reporte d t o thi s dat a base . Sinc e th e dat a fromthi s sourc e onl ycover s on e clas s o fP. 8

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- vehicle s an

d it s nationwid e representativenes s o f al l accident s ca n no t be determined , the MC S 25 0 Acciden t Report s wer e no t used for thi s analysis . Othe r source s o f helpfu l information for thi s assessmen t includ e previou s analyse s b yvehicl e safety experts . Thes e analyse s wil l be presente d an d discusse d below . B . Previou s Moto r Vehicl e Fir e Analyse s "Evaluation o f Federa l Moto r Vehicl e Safet yStandard 301-75 , Fue l SystemIntegrity : Passenge r Cars, " GlennParsons , NHTSA(1983)[12 ] Thi s analysi s wa s publishe d b yNHTSAi n198 3 t o evaluat e th e effectivenes s o f the improve d FMVS S 301-75 . Th e repor t characterize s the in-us e acciden t an d fir e experienc e o f bot h pre - an

d post-standar d .vehicles . Th e dat a containe d i nthi s repor t ar e obtaine d primaril yfro mMichiga npolic e acciden t report s for the calenda r year s 1978 , 1979 , an d 198 0 for accident s involving passenge r vehicle s only . Fromdat a presente d in thi s report , Table s 1 an d 2 showthe distributio n o f impac t typ e an d vehicl e damag e severit yi naccident s involvin

g bot hpre - an

d post-standard passenge r cars . Tabl e 1 , whic hpresent s the frequencyo f accident s fro mthe variou s impac t types , show s tha t rollove r accident s ar e rar e occurrence s (abou t 1. 4 percen t frequency ) an d mos t accident s ar e fronta l impact s (abou t 60. 9 percen t frequency) . Tabl e 2 present s the damag e severit ysustaine d b yeac hvehicl e involve d i n a n acciden t base d ona Vehicl e Damag e Severit y(VDS ) scale . AVD S o f 1 represent s verymino r vehicl e damage , wherea s a VD S o f 8 represent s extreme damage . A s expected , thi s tabl e show s tha t accident s wit hLo-Moderat e severit ydamag e (VD S =2 , 3 , 4 , 5 ) ar e mor e frequen t i ncompariso nt o majo r severit yaccident s (VDS = 6 , 7 , 8) . Furthermore , thi s repor t supplie s dat a whic hcharacterize s the occurrenc e o f fire s inaccident s involving pre - an d post-standard vehicles . Tabl e 3 present s the fir e rate s (numbe r o f fire s pe r numbe r o f vehicl e crashes ) fo r bot htype s o f vehicle s b

yimpac t typ e an

d damag e severity . Th e dat a show tha t rollove r an

d rear en

d collisions , especiall ythos e wit h majo r damag e severity , have the highes t fir e rates . Thi s tabl e als o show s tha t FMVS S 301-7 5 gav e a greate r reductio n i nthe fir e rate s for majo r severit yaccident s (50. 6 percent ) thanfor Lo-Moderat e severit yaccident s (22. 4 percent ) o f thes e impac t types . Othe r dat a provide d b ythi s NHTSAtechnica l repor t includ e the numbe r an

d degre e o f injurie s whic hresul t fro mvehicl e accident s an

d post-collisio nfires . I t categorize s the injurie s int o fou r types : fata l injuries , incapacitating injuries , non-incapacitating injuries , an d possibl e injuries . I n additio n t o the ke ydat a wit hregard t o fir e rate s show nin Tabl e 3 , som

e furthe r informatio n presente d i n thi s repor t include :P. 9

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- Tabl e 1 Distributio no f Accident s b yImpac t Type * Impac t Typ e Fronta l Rollove r Rea r en d Othe r (Sid ( Pre-Standar d

Frequenc y(% )

= , et c 62. 9

1. 5 22. 9

. ) 12. £

. Post-Standar d

Frequenc y(% ) 59. 7 1. 4 24. 5 14. 4 Overal l

Frequenc y(% ) 60. 9 1. 4 23. 9 13. 8
Base d o n Michiga ndat a fo r calenda r yea r 1980 .P.1 0

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- Tabl e 2 Distributio n o f Accident s b yVehicl e Damag e Severity * Vehicl e Damag e Severit y 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Pre-Stand a

Frequenc y 3.85 8 25.59 5 26.13 4 20.22 0 12.44 7 6.55 2 3 . 11 2 2.07 6 r d (% ) Post-Standar d

Frequenc y 2.89 2 26.10 8 27.16 2 20.53 2 12.39 8 6.35 0 2.82 1 1.70 7 (% ) Overal l

Frequenc y(% ) 3.2 6 25.9 2 26.7 8 20.4 2 12.4 2 6.4 3 2.9 3 1.8 5
Base d o n Michiga n dat a fo r calenda r yea r 1980 .P.1 1

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- Tabl e 3 Fir e Rate s for Pre
- an d Post-Standar d Vehicle s b

yImpac t Typ e an

d Damag e Severity * # o f fires/ Mo f vehicl e crashe s = fir e rate(xl0 -3 )

Lo-Moderat e Severit yMajorit ySeverit y (VD S = 2,3,4,5 ) (VD S = 6,7,8 ) Pre-Standar d Fron t en

d 360/229,43 3 = 1.56 9 91/946 5 = 9.61 4 Rea r en d 139/99,66 3 = 1.39 5 90/630 4 = 14.2 8 Rollove r 14/294 6 = 4.75 2 49/338 9 = 14.4 6 TOTAL 513/332,04 2 = 1.54 5 230/19,15 8 = 12.0 1 Post-standar d Fron t en

d 311/261,00 2 = 1.19 2 79/14,42 5 = 5.47 7 Rea r en d 139/119,14 1 = 1.16 7 40/694 4 = 5.7 6 Rollove r 10/354 1 = 2.82 4 29/359 9 = 8.0 5 TOTAL 460/383,68 4 = 1.19 9 148/24,96 8 =5.9 3 Reductio n fro

mStandard 22.4 % 50.6 %

Base d on Michiga ndat a fo r calenda r year s 1978 , 1979 , an d 1980 . Informatio n fo r othe r type s o f impact s wer e no t reported .P.1 2

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- 20,60 0 annua l moto r vehicl e fire s resultin g fro m passenge r ca r accidents . 1,09 9 annua l fatalitie s i n passenge r ca r accident s wit hfir e (averag e fro mFAR S fo r 1978-1981) . Tota l injurie s i n al l passenge r ca r accidents :

385,89 2 incapacitatin g injurie s 865,64 2 non-incapacitatin g injurie s 1,095,18 0 possibl e injurie s Injurie s i n passenge r ca r accident s wit h post-collisio n fire : 3,86 7 incapacitatin g injurie s 3,83 6 non-incapacitatin g injurie s 2,48 6 possibl e injurie s "Fire s i n Moto r Vehicl e Accident," Pete r Coole y(1974)[13 ] Thi s analysi s don e b yPete r Coole yo f th e Highwa ySafet y Researc hInstitut e (HSRI , no wth e Universit yo f Michiga n Transportatio n Researc hInstitut e o r UMTRI ) provide s dat a o n th e tota l numbe r o f vehicl e fire s and th e resultin g fatalities . I n thi s analysis , Coole ystudie s accident s o f passenge r car s t o estimat e th e numbe r o f post-collisio n fires . Furthermore , h e analyze s th e fatalitie s involve d i n post-collisio n fire s an d determine s whethe r th e fatalit ywa s "accompanie d by " o r "directl ycause d by " th e post-collisio n fire . Unfortunately , hi s dat a d o no t specif yth e sourc e o f th e fir e (i.e. , fue l tank) . Sinc e thi s repor t wa s writte n i n 1974 , th e dat a ar e base d entirel yo n pre-standar d vehicles . Th e ke y dat a presente d i n thi s analysi s includ e th e following :

17,00 0 annua l fire s resul t fro mmoto r vehicl e accidents . 720-1,25 0 fatalitie s ar e accompanie d bythes e fires . 450-65 0 fatalitie s ar e directl ycause d b yth e vehicl e f i res . "Genera l Motor s an d Fue l Syste mCollisio n Fires " (1974)[14 ] Thi s studyprovide s Genera l Motors'
- poin t o f vie wo n th e fir e hazard s o f moto r vehicles . I t offer s statistic s o n th e numbe r o f passenge r ca r fatalitie s cause d directl yb y post-collisio n fire s an d mor e specifically , fue l syste m collisio n fires . Sinc e thi s studywa s performe d i n 1974 , i t onl yrelate s t o pre-standar d vehicles . Ke ydat a include :

560-1,87 0 annua l fatalitie s du e t o collisio n fires . 25 0 annua l fatalitie s du e t o vehicl e fue l syste m collisio n f Lres .P.1 3

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" APerspective onAutomobil e Cras hFires, " SA E 850092
. Warner , Jame s an

d Woolley , (1985)[15 ] Thi s SA

E publicatio n analyze s previou s studie s regardin g automobil e cras hfires . Th e majo r conclusio nfro mthi s analysi s i s tha t post-collisio n fuel-fe d fire s caus e approximatel y1-1. 5 percen t o f al l vehicl e occupan t fatalitie s in spit e o f the FMVS S 30 1 improvements . Thi s conclude s the dat a availabl e on fue l tank-relate d fire s whic hwer e used i nthi s analysis . Base d oninformatio n gathere d fro

mthes e moto r vehicl e fir e dat a base s an d previou s studies , th

e fir e hazard o f curren t vehicle s canbe estimated . Ill . Analysi s o f Dat a A s show

n in the previou s section , Summaryo f Availabl e Data , the dat a base s an d previou s analyse s regarding moto r vehicl e fire s provid e differen t type s o f informatio n covering differen t tim

e periods . Wit hcarefu l analysis , the informatio n obtaine d fro

mthes e source s canbe used t o generat e estimate s o f fue l tank-relate d fires , fatalities , injuries , an d propert y damag e for vehicle s operating inthe post-199 0 tim e frame . In the post-199 0 tim

e frame , essentiall yal l light-dut yvehicle s an d light-dutytruck s woul d be in complianc e wit hFMVS S 301-7 5 an d onboard refuelin g control s woul d be require d on thes e gasoline-powere d moto r vehicles.[9 ] Therefore , for purpose s o f thi s analysis , the yea r 199 0 i s used t o adjus t the dat a b y vehicl e mile s travelle d (VMT ) t o accoun t for sucha tim e frame . Befor e thes e dat a canbe used t o generat e the desire d estimates , tw

o adjustment s ar e necessar yt o ge t al l dat a on a common basis . First , al l dat a mus t be pu t i nterms o f post
standard fir e rates , sinc e refuelin g control s woul d be require d on post-standard vehicle s only . T o pu t the dat a i n terms o f post-standard rates , the fraction o f fire s contribute d b y pre-standard vehicle s wa s determine d usin g the estimate d percentag e o f VMT b ythes e vehicle s whe n the dat a wer e taken.[16,17 ] Thes e pre-standard fraction s wer e then

- adjuste d t o post-standard rate s based onthe effectivenes s o f FMVS S 301-7 5 give n i n the aforementione d NHTSAreport.[12 ] Sinc e i t i s reasonabl e t o assume tha t mos t rear-en d an d rollove r acciden t fire s occur inthe fue l tan k area , a fue l tank-relate d fir e reduction facto r for FMVS S 301-7 5 wa s calculate d using the pre - an

d post-standard fir e rate s for rear-en d an d rollove r collision s show

n i n Tabl e 1 . Fo r purpose s o f thi s analysis , thes e overal l post-collisio nan d fue l tank-relate d fir e reduction factor s for FMVS S 301-7 5 wer e estimate d t o be 32. 7 an d 36. 9 percent , respectively . The estimate d fir e reductionfactor s fo r FMVS S 301-7 5 discussed above ar e base d o nfir e dat a involving onl ypassenge r cars . I t shoul d be noted tha t thes e adjustmen t factor s wer eP.1 4
-13

- applie d t o al l dat a sources , including FAR S an d NFIRS , whic h includ e fire s fro

mothe r vehicle s beside s passenge r car s (e.g. , light-dut ytrucks , buses , an d heavy-dut yvehicles) . Absen t an y othe r data , i t i s reasonabl e t o assume tha t FMVS S 301-7 5 woul d reduc e fire s involving light-dut ytruck s an d schoo l buse s a s effectivel ya s th e NHTS Arepor t show s fo r passenge r cars . Using th e fir e reductio nfactor s o n heavy-dut yvehicl e (ove r 10,00 0 poun

d gros s weight ) data , however , coul d possibl y underestimat e th e numbe r o f fire s an d thei r consequences , sinc e thes e vehicle s d o no t hav e t o compl ywit hFMVS S 301-75 . T o pu t suc ha possibl e underestimatio n i nprope r perspective , i t i s importan t t o not e tha t heavy-dut yvehicle s accoun t fo r les s than five percen t o f th e in-us e vehicle s an d VMT eac hyear , an d informatio n i n th e appendi xt o thi s repor t suggest s tha t thes e vehicle s contribut e onl ya fewpercen t o f th e annua l moto r vehicl e fires.[18,19 ] Nevertheless , i t i s importan t t o not e tha t b y197 3 al l fue l tank s manufacture d fo r heavy-dut y vehicle s whic har e involve d i n interstat e commerc e mus t compl y wit hOMC S performanc e requirements.[20 ] Therefore , applying th e fir e reductio n factor s estimate d fromNHTSA' s repor t t o dat a source s whic hinclud e fire s fro mheavy-dut yvehicle s (FAR S an d NFIRS ) shoul d no t introduc e a nappreciabl e erro r t o th e fir e estimat e projection s presente d i nthi s analysis . Second , afte r th e dat a ar e adjuste d t o post-standar d fir e rate s i t i s als o necessaryt o conside r tha t increasing VMT betwee n th e time whe nth e dat a wer e generate d an d 199 0 woul d increas e th e absolut e numbe r o f fue l tank fire s an d relate d afte r effects . I t i s logica l t o projec t tha t absen t othe r measures , fire s an d subsequen t fatalities , etc. , woul d increas e a s VMT increases . I t shoul d b e note d tha t fatalit yrate s base d o n VMT hav e generall ydecline d ove r th e las t severa l years.[21 ] However , absen t an yothe r metho d t o accoun t fo r th e effect s o f th e increas e i nvehicle s an d VMT betwee n th e time whe n th e dat a wer e collecte d an d 1990 , using VMT fo r thi s adjustmen t seem s reasonable . Thus , al l dat a wer e adjuste d t o 199 0 using th e rati o o f th e 199 0 tota l VMT t o th e tota l VMT o f th e year(s ) in whic hth e dat a wer e generated.[18 ] On e othe r adjustmen t whic hwa s considere d bu t no t incorporate d int o thi s analysi s i s th e effec t o f vehicl e aging on fir e rates . I f vehicl e aging doe s affec t fir e rates , th e dat a adjustment s fo r pre - t o post-standar d vehicle s woul d hav e t o b e adjuste d further . Thi s concer n arise s becaus e th e pre an d post-standar d fir e rat e dat a use d t o develop th e adjustmen t facto r di d no t us e al l vehicle s o f th e same age . Th e post
standard fir e rat e wa s base d o n vehicle s 0- 4 year s old , an d th e pre-standar d rat e wa s base d o nvehicle s 3- 8 year s old.[12 ] Thus , ther e i s th e possibilit ytha t th e adjustmen t facto r coul d b e to o larg e sinc e i t incorporate s th e effec t o f differen t fir e rate s o n differen t ag e vehicles , i nadditio nt o th e improvement s brough t b yth e safet ystandard .P.1 5

•14

- Fir e rate s (fire s pe r crash ) ma yvar yb yvehicl e ag e becaus e change s i n drivin g pattern s (les s hig hspee d freeway , mor e lowe r spee d urba n area) , ownership , fue l syste mcomponen t deterioration , and lac k o f maintenanc e wit hvehicl e ag e ma y hav e a n effec t o n th e possibilit yo f a fir e i n th e even t o f an accident . Th e ne t effec t o f thes e factor s wa s evaluate d usin g dat a from

th e NHTS Atechnica l report.[12 ] Usin g thi s report , preliminar yanalysi s o f th e dat a conclude d tha t th e effec t o f aging i s probabl ysmall . However , a n accurat e and mor e conclusiv e determinatio n (eithe r quantitativel yo r directionally ) canno t b e mad e unti l mor e informatio n become s availabl e wit hgreate r rang e i n vehicl e age . NHTS Aplan s t o updat e thei r evaluatio n o f FMVS S 301-7 5 i n th e nea r futur e base d o n mor e recen t data . Regardin g th e effec t o f vehicl e aging , i t i s interestin g t o not e tha t th e 198 5 FAR S dat a sugges t tha t th e percen t o f vehicl e accident s (no t fires ) by mode l yea r ar e directl yproportiona l t o registration s o f tha t mode l year' s vehicles , no t VMT.[21 ] Thi s support s th e hypothesi s tha t vehicl e agin g ha s n o effec t o n vehicl e accidents . IV . Developmen t o f 199 0 Vehicl e Fir e Dat a Th e dat a o n moto r vehicl e fire s extracte d fro mth e si x source s wer e collectivel yanalyzed , accordin g t o th e methodolog ydescribe d above , t o estimat e th e annua l numbe r o f post-collisio n and fue l tank relate d fire s and th e resultin g fatalities , injurie s and propert ydamage . A s previousl y mentioned , t o b e usefu l th e characteristic s o f al l availabl e dat a mus t b e pu t i n term s o f a commo n basis . Therefore , th e fir e dat a wer e scale d t o represen t post-standar d vehicle s operatin g i n th e yea r 199 0 whe n essentiall yal l vehicle s in-us e wil l mee t FMVS S 301 . Ver yfe wsource s directl yprovid e statistic s fo r fue l tank-relate d fires . I n fact , onl ythre e o f th e source s studie d provid e suc hstatistics : NFIRS , th e Genera l Motor s study , and SAE pape r 850092.[11,14,15 ] Anothe r metho d t o estimat e th e statistic s fo r fue l tan k fire s i n particula r i s bo approximat e th e percentag e o f tota l post-collisio n fire s whic har e fue l tank-related . Sinc e i t i s logica l t o assum e tha t mos t o f th e fue l tank-relate d fire s resul t fro mrollove r and rea r en d collisions , thi s percentag e ca n b e estimate d fro mth e tota l fractio n o f thes e collisio n types . Usin g thi s assumptio n and th e NHTS Areport , i t ca n b e calculate d tha t fue l tan k fire s accoun t fo r approximatel y3 1 percen t o f th e tota l collisio n fires.[12 ] Wit hthi s percentag e factor , post-collisio n fir e dat a fromth e remainin g source s ca n b e use d t o estimat e th e numbe r o f fue l tank-relate d fire s and thei r subsequen t effects . Tabl e 4 present s th e 199 0 post-standar d moto r vehicl e fir e dat a generate d fro m th e si xsource s use d i n thi s analysis . Th e dat a presente d includ e th e numbe r o f vehicl e fire s and/o r thei r aftereffect s fo r post-collisio n fire s and particularl yfo r fue lP.1 6

-15

- Tabl e 4 199 0 Post-Standar d Vehicl e Fir e Dat a

Source/Statisti c FAR S Fire s wit hFatalitie s Fatalitie s NFIR S Vehicl e Fire s Fatalitie s Injurie s Propert yDamag e NHTS ARepor t Vehicl e Fire s Fatalitie s Injuries : Incapacitating Non-Incapacitating Possibl e Cooley' s Repor t Vehicl e Fire s Fatalitie s G MStud y Fatalitie s SAE 85009 2 Fatalitie s Pos t Collisio n Fire s 1,62 9 1,67 9

19,55 0 1,04 3 3,66 9 3,64 0 2,35 0 15,31 3 405-1 , 505-1 , 12 6 68 5 Fue l Tank-Relate d Fire s Collisio n & Collisio n Non-Collisio n 50 5 52 0 1,87 1 10,73 0 18 5 23 6 33 6 62 5 $1 4 millio n $3 2 millio n 6,06 0 32 3 1,13 7 1,12 8 72 8 4,74 7 126-34 9 21 1 560-83 9P.1 7

-16

-
tan k fire s (fo r bot hpost-collisio n fire s onl yan d post
collisio n and non-collisio n fires) . A s previousl ymentioned , onl yth e NFIRS , GMStudy , and SA E 85009 2 directl yrepor t dat a fo r fue l tank-relate d fires . Fue l tan k fir e statistic s fo r collision s fro mth e remainin g source s (FARS , NHTS Areport , Cooley' s report ) wer e estimate d b yscalin g th e post-collisio n fir e dat a wit hth e percentag e o f fue l tan k fire s approximate d fro mParsons ' repor t (3 1 percent) . Therefore , th e dat a i n Tabl e 4 encompasse s al l o f th e availabl e dat a and present s a reasonabl e rang e o f th e fir e hazard s fo r moto r vehicle s i n th e yea r 1990 . Th e dat a fro mth e si xsource s presente d i n Tabl e 4 ca n b e summarize d fo r bot hth e post-collisio n and fue l tank-relate d fire s a s presente d below :

• Post-Collisio n Moto r Vehicl e Fire s (annua l projections ) 15,300-19,60 0 annua l fire s 400-1,70 0 fatalitie s 3,70 0 seriou s injurie s 3,60 0 moderat e injurie s

• Fue l Tank-Relate d Fire s (annua l projections )

4,750-10,70 0 fue l tank-relate d fire s (fo r bot h collisio n and non-collisio n fires) * 1,870-6,06 0 fue l tank-relate d fire s (fo r collisio n fire s only) * 126-83 9 fatalitie s 625-1,14 0 seriou s injurie s (fo r bot hcollisio n an d non-collisio n fires ) 336-1,14 0 seriou s injurie s (fo r collisio n fir e only ) 1,13 0 moderat e injurie s $3 2 millio n propert ydamag e (fo r bot h collisio n and non-collisio n fires ) $1 4 millio n propert ydamag e (fo r collisio n fire s only ) Thes e statistics , base d o n extrapolation s t o 1990 , represen t a reasonabl e rang e fo r th e fir e hazard s o f moto r vehicle s fo r th e post-L99 0 tim e frame , whe n refuelin g control s ma yb e required . A s ca n be see n fro mthes e statistics , a larg e percentag e o f fue l tank-relate d fire s ar e non-collisio n fires . Statistic s fo r non-collisio n fire s onl ycanno t b e obtaine d directl ybysubtractin g thes e ranges . Thes e range s ar e base d o n severa l source s whic hrepor t collisio n fire s o r collisio n and non-collisio n fires .P.1 8
-17

- V . Summaryan

d Conclusion s I n respons e t o th e recen t concern s regarding th e potentia l safet yimplication s o f onboar d refueling controls , thi s analysi s estimate d th e potentia l hazar d o f fue l tank-relate d fire s fo r bot hcurren t moto r vehicle s an d i n th e post-199 0 timeframe whe n essentiall yal l in-us e passenge r car s an d light-dut ytruck s woul d mee t FMVS S 301-75 . Thi s assessmen t provide s a baselin e fro mwhic ht o asses s an ychang e i n ris k whic hcoul d occur a s a resul t o f th e additio no f onboar d vapo r recoverysystems . A s show

n i n thi s report , ver yfewsource s o f moto r vehicl e fir e dat a exis t whic haccuratel yasses s an d characteriz e th e fir e hazar d fo r curren t vehicles . Thi s analysi s use s fir e informatio n fro

mtwo dat a base s an d four pas t analyse s o f moto r vehicl e fire s t o perform a vehicl e fir e hazar d assessment . Wit hcarefu l analysis , th e fir e informatio nobtaine d fromthes e source s wer e use d t o estimat e a rang e fo r th e numbe r o f fue l tank-relate d fire s an d thei r consequence s fo r vehicle s i nth e post-199 0 time frame , whe nonboar d refueling control s coul d b e require d o n gasoline-fuele d moto r vehicles . I n orde r t o pu t al l dat a o n a commo n basis , thi s analysi s account s fo r bot hth e effectivenes s o f FMVS S 301-7 5 an d th e increas e i n VM T fromwhe n th e dat a wer e generate d an d 1990 . Fromthi s analysis , th e following statistic s summariz e th e hazard s o f fue l tank-relate d fire s fo r moto r vehicle s o n anannua l basis , projecte d fo r th e post-199 0 timeframe :

1,870-10,70 0 annua l fue l tank-relate d fire s 126-83 9 fatalitie s 336-1,14 0 seriou s injurie s 1,13 0 moderat e injurie s $14-$3 2 millio n propert ydamag eP.1 9

-18

- Reference s 1 . "Safet yImplication s o f Onboar d Refuelin g Vapo r Recover ySystems, " U.S . EPA-AA-SDSB-87-05 , Jun e 1987 . 2 . "Analysi s o f Fue l Tank-Relate d Fires, " EP A Memorandum , Kathlee n A . Steile n t o Charle s L . Gray , U.S . EPA , OAR , OMS , OMS , ECTD , SDSB , Jun e 10 , 1987 . 3 . Nationa l Fir e Inciden t Reportin g System , Moto r Vehicl e Fir e Tallys , FEMA , U.S . Fir e Administration , 1980-1985 . 4 . Letter , Ralp hJ . Hitchcock , NHTS At o Cheste r J . France , U.S . EPA , Septembe r 21 , 1987 . 5 . Letter , Joh n Glen n Har t III , U.S . Fir e Administratio n t o Kathlee n A . Steilen , U.S . EPA , Septembe r 16 , 1987 . 6 . Moto r Vehicl e Safet yStandar d No . 301 , Fue l Tanks , Fue l Tan k Fille r Pipes , and Fue l Tan k Connection s - Passenge r Cars : 3 2 F R2416 , Februar y3 , 1967 , Par t 571 : S 301-1 . 7 . Moto r Vehicl e Safet yStandar d No . 301-75 , Fue l Syste m Integrity : 3 9 F R10588 , Marc h21 , 1974 , Par t 571 : S 301-75-5.1 , 5.2 , 5.3 . 8 . Moto r Vehicl e Safet yStandar d No . 301-75 , Fue l Syste m Integrity : 4 0 F R48352 , Octobe r 15 , 1975 , Par t 571 : S 301-75-5.1 , 5.2 , 5.3 , 5.4 . 9 . "Contro l o f Ai r Pollutio n Fro mNe wMoto r Vehicle s an d Ne wMoto r Vehicl e Engines ; Refuelin g Emissio n Regulation s fo r Gasoline-Fuele d Light-Dut yVehicle s and Truck s and Heavy-Dut yVehicles, " Notic e o f Propose d Rulemaking , FRN : pp . 31162-31271 , Augus t 19 , 1987 . 10 . Fata l Acciden t Reportin g System , NHTSA , DOT , 1980-1984 . 11 . Nationa l Fir e Inciden t Reportin g System , FEMA , U.S . Fir e Administration , 1980-1985 . 12 . "Evaluatio n o f Federa l Moto r Vehicl e Safet yStandar d 301-75 , Fue l Syste mIntegrity : Passenge r Cars, " DO T HS-806-335 , Januar y1983 . 13 . "Fire s I n Moto r Vehicl e Accidents, " UM-HSRI-SA-74-3 , Pete r Cooley , Apri l 1974 .P.2 0
-19

- 14 . "Genera l Motor s an d Fue l SystemCollisio nFires, " Environmenta l Activitie s Publicatio nNo . A-3177 , Decembe r 16 , 1974 . 15 . " APerspectiv e o n Automobil e Cras hFires, " SAE 850092 , Warner , Jame s an d Woolley , 1985 . 16 . "Revise d Diese l Sale s Fractio n Projections, " U.S . EPAMemorandum , Joh n W . Muelle r t o Charle s C . Gray , January9 , 1987 . 17 . "Compilatio n o f Ai r Pollutan t Emissio n Factors , Volume II : Mobil e Sources, " AP-42 , Fourt hEdition , Septembe r 1985 . 18 . "MOBILE 3 Fue l Consumptio n Model, " U.S . EPA-AA-TEB
EF-85-2 , Mar k A . Wolcot t an d Denni s F . Kahlbaum , February1985 . 19 . "MVM

AMoto r Vehicl e Fact s an d Figure s 1987, " Moto r Vehicl e Manufacturer s Associatio n o f th e Unite d States , Inc. , 1987 . 20 . "Federa l Moto r Carrie r Safet yRegulation s an d Nois e Emissio n Requirements, " Burea u o f Moto r Carrie r Safety , Federa l HighwayAdministration , U.S . DOT , Octobe r 31 , 1983 . 21 . "Fata l Acciden t Reporting System1985 , ARevie wo f Informatio n o n Fata l Traffi c Accident s i nth e U.S . i n 1985, " NHTSA , DOT , 1985 .P.2 1
Appendi x
NFIR S Detaile d Dat aP.2 2

Tabl e A- l
NFIR S Tall yb yMobil e Propert yTyp e

- Annua l Nationwid e Projectio n Average s 198 0 throug h198 5

- Collisio n an d Non-Collisio n Fire s

Mobil e Propert yTyp e Fire s Injurie s Death s Los s (xlO-^S )

Automobil e Bus , Trackles s Trolle y Terrai n Vehicle s Pass . Roa d Trans , Othe r Pass . Roa d Trans , Unc . Pass . Roa d Tran s Truc k - Ove r 1 to n Truc k - Unde r 1 to n Semi-Traile r Truc k Tan k Truc k - Non-Flam . Tan k Truc k - Fla mLqd . Tan k Truc k - Comp . Ga s Tras hTruc k Freigh t Roa d Trans , Othe r Freigh t Roa d Trans , Unc . Freigh t Roa d Tran s 443,95 8 3,62 2 8,21 2 1,45 8 3,46 3 460,71 3 19 , 35 , 7 , 38 2 99 4 82 1 28 9 1 , 13 1 37 2 398 9 53 0 496 1 7 4 , 46 9 3,34 4 4 1 24 6 2 9 2 3 3,68 3 26 0 45 5 11 4 1 0 11 0 1 4 1 5 8 3 1 101 6 72 6

4 2 4 1 2 75 8 5 3 11 3 4 6 2 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 24 5 689.9 2

10.3 1 11.3 0 2.8 7 1.9 6 716.3 6 60.8 6 49.7 8 59.6 5 1.4 3 10.5 0 1.9 1 8.0 5 2.1 5 16.9 9 211.3 3

Tota l 535,18 3 4,69 9 1,00 3 927.6 8P.2 3

t > , - * Tabl e A- 2

NFIR S Tall yb

yAre a o f Fir e Origin * Annua l Nationwid e Projectio n Average s 198 0 through198 5 Collisio n an

d Non-Collisio n Fire s Vehicl e Are a Passenge r Are a Trun k Are a Engin e Are a Fue l Tan

k Are a Contro l Are a Exterio r Surfac e No t Classifie d

Tota l Fire s Injurie s Death s Los s (x!0 6 $ ) 100,61 6 18,65 9 332,68 1 10,82 8 7,12 1 6,93 1 11,17 9
488,01 5 86 8

27 4 1,96 4 63 1 5 8 8 0 13 6
4,01 0 20 2

3 0 28 6 23 7 8 1 4 4 3

82 1 250.5 2

36.7 9 388.9 2 32.1 8 17.7 0 10.9 7 21.6 6

758.7 4
Thi s tall yinclude s onl yvehicl e fire s i n whic hthe fir e originate d i n the vehicle . Th e tota l i s smalle r than the tota l o f Tabl e A- l becaus e i t exclude s apparen t NFIR S reporting error s an d vehicle s tha t wer e involve d i n fire s whic hdi d no t originat e withi n the vehicle .

### A-

* »

- **'

Tabl e A- 3

199 0 Pos t - FMVS S 301-7 5 Annua l Projection s for Moto r Vehicl e Fire s

- Collisio n an

d Non-Collisio n Fire s

- Based o n 1980-198 5 dat a

Are a o f Fir e Origi n Passenge r Are a Trun k Are a Engin e Are a Fue l Tan

k Are a Contro l Are a Exterio r Surfac e No t Classifie d

Tota l Fire s 101,30 0 18,78 2 335,35 8 10,73 1 7,17 5 7,00 5 11,25 5
491,60 5 Injurie s

87 4 27 5 1,97 8 62 5 5 8 8 0 13 7
4,02 8 Death s

20 4 3 0 28 7 23 6 9 1 4 4 3

82 2 Los s (xl O

253.0 4 37.1 2 393.4 3 31.9 7 17.8 8 11.0 9 21.8 6

766.3 9P.2 5

Tabl e A- 4 NFIR S Annua l Fue l Tan k Fir e Tall y

- Collisio n Fire s Onl y

Yea r Nationwid e Projection s 199 0 Post-FMVS S 301-7 5 Projection s
198 1 198 2 198 3 198 4 198 5 Fire s 241 8 194 5 177 1 172 5 149 4 Injurie s

36 6 35 3 32 9 38 7 24 5 Death s

22 8 15 9 16 0 22 2 15 4 Loss(M$ )

17.6 6 10.7 6 12.0 8 16.5 1 12.7 5 Fire s

236 3 194 2 178 6 174 7 151 5 Injurie s

35 7 35 2 33 2 39 2 24 8 Death s

22 3 15 9 16 2 22 5 15 6 L

o s s (xl0 5 $ ) 17.2 6 10.7 4 12.1 8 16.7 1 12.9 2
Avg . 187 1 33 6 18 5 13.9 5 187 1 33 6 18 5 13.9 6