MARINE SANCTAURIES CONSERVATION SERIES ONMS-16-03

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 

for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National 

Monument 

 

http://www.papahanaumokuakea.gov June 2016

U.S. Department of Commerce 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

National Ocean Service 

Office of National Marine Sanctuaries
National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration

U.S. Secretary of Commerce

Penny Pritzer

Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans

and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator

Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D.

Assistant Administrator

National Ocean Service

Russell Callender, Ph.D.

Office of National Marine Sanctuaries

John Armor, Acting Director

Papahānumokuākea Marine National Monument

Athline Clark, Superintendent

Editors 

Daniel Wagner and Dan Polhemus.

Reviewers and Contributors

Abby Frazier, Alasdair Edwards, Ann Bell, Andy Collins,

Andrea Kealoha, Anne Rosinski, Athline Clark, ‘Aulani 

Wilhelm, Benton Pang, Bernardo Vargas-Angel, Beth 

Flint, Blane Benevedes, Bob Nishimoto, Brad Wong, 

Charles Young, Celia Smith, Chip Fletcher, Chris Winn, 

Chuck Burrows, Courtney Couch, Dan Polhemus, 

Daniel Wagner, David Duffy, David Swatland, Deanna 

Spooner, Deborah Ward, Don Palawski, Emma Anders, 

Frank Parrish, Frazer McGilvray, Garett Kamemoto, 

Gerry Davis, Guy Kaulukukui, Healoha Johnson, 

Heather McMillen, Heidi Guth, Heidi Schuttenberg, 

Jason Leonard, Jason Misaki, Jean Kenyon, Jeff 

Burgett, Jeff Polovina, John Marra, Hiʻilei Kawelo, Kalei 

Nuʻuhiwa, Katie Munkres, Kehau Springer, Kealiʻi 

Sagum, Kekuewa Kikiloi, Kelly Keogh, Ken Foote, 

Keola Lindsey, Keoni Kuoha, Kevin Hamilton, Kim 

Maison, Koa Kukea-Schultz, Kyle Van Houtan, Laura 

Stevens, Lauren Kaiser, Lucus Fortini, Malia 

Akutagawa, Maria Carnevale, Mark Merrifield, Michelle 

Phillips, Michelle Reynolds, Mike Nahoopii, Nadiera 

McCarthy, Naiʻa Lewis, Nori Shoji, Randall Kosaki, 

Richard Hall, Rob Toonen, Rod Salm, Roger Griffis, 

Rusty Brainard, Sam Gon, Samantha Brooke, Scott 

Godwin, Scott Shaffer, Siri Hakala, Steve Miller, Tiffany 

Anderson, Toni Parras, Ty Benally, Ulalia Woodside 

and Wende Goo.

Suggested Citation:

Wagner, D. & Polhemus, D.A. 2016. Climate Change 

Vulnerability Assessment for the Papahānaumokuākea 

Marine National Monument. Marine Sanctuaries 

Conservation Series ONMS-16-03. U.S. Department of 

Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, 

Silver Spring, MD. 99 pp. 

Cover Photo:

Coral reef off Lisianski Island inside the 

Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument that 

suffered high levels of bleaching in the summer of 

2014. Credit: Courtney Couch/Hawaiʻi Institute of 

Marine Biology.
i

About the Marine Sanctuaries

Conservation Series

The Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration, serves as the trustee for a system of 14 marine protected areas encompassing 

more than 170,000 square miles of ocean and Great Lakes waters. The 13 national marine 

sanctuaries and one marine national monument within the National Marine Sanctuary 

System represent areas of America’s ocean and Great Lakes environment that are of special 

national significance. Within their waters, giant humpback whales breed and calve their 

young, coral colonies flourish, and shipwrecks tell stories of our maritime history. Habitats 

include beautiful coral reefs, lush kelp forests, whale migrations corridors, spectacular deepsea canyons, and underwater archaeological sites. These special places also provide homes 

to thousands of unique or endangered species and are important to America’s cultural 

heritage. Sites range in size from one square mile to almost 140,000 square miles and serve 

as natural classrooms, cherished recreational spots, and are home to valuable commercial 

industries.

Because of considerable differences in settings, resources, and threats, each marine 

sanctuary has a tailored management plan. Conservation, education, research, monitoring 

and enforcement programs vary accordingly. The integration of these programs is 

fundamental to marine protected area management. The Marine Sanctuaries Conservation 

Series reflects and supports this integration by providing a forum for publication and 

discussion of the complex issues currently facing the sanctuary system. Topics of published 

reports vary substantially and may include descriptions of educational programs, discussions 

on resource management issues, and results of scientific research and monitoring projects. 

The series facilitates integration of natural sciences, socioeconomic and cultural sciences, 

education, and policy development to accomplish the diverse needs of NOAA’s resource 

protection mandate. All publications are available on the Office of National Marine 

Sanctuaries Web site (http://www.sanctuaries.noaa.gov).
ii

Disclaimer

Report content does not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Office of National 

Marine Sanctuaries or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, nor does the 

mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation 

for use. Similarly, the findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do 

not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Report Availability

Electronic copies of this report may be downloaded from the Office of National Marine 

Sanctuaries web site at http://sanctuaries.noaa.gov. 

Contact

Daniel Wagner, NOAA Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, 1845 Wasp 

Boulevard, Building 176, Honolulu, HI, 96818. Email: daniel.wagner@noaa.gov.

Dan A. Polhemus, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 300 Ala Moana Boulevard, Suite 3-122, 

Honolulu, HI 96817. Email: dan_polhemus@fws.gov. 
iii

Table of Contents

Executive Summary.......................................................................................v

Chapter 1: Introduction................................................................................1

1.1 Understanding and Responding to Climate Change: Dimensions of the 

Challenge...........................................................................................................2

1.1.1 An Overview of Climate Change Impacts on Natural and Cultural Resources..........2

1.1.2 What are the Goals When Managing for Climate Change?..........................................6

1.1.3 Adaptation Options ........................................................................................................12

1.2 Purpose and Development of this Document ........................................12

1.3 Relationship to the Monument Management Plan and Other Step-Down 

Plans ................................................................................................................13

1.4 Goals & Guiding Principles for Managing Papahānaumokuākea in the 

Context of Climate Change............................................................................15

Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment ....................................................... 17

2.1 Climate Variables......................................................................................17

2.1.1 Ocean Acidification........................................................................................................19

2.1.2 Air and Ocean Temperatures ........................................................................................20

2.1.3 Sea-Level Rise ................................................................................................................22

2.1.4 Ocean Circulation...........................................................................................................23

2.1.5 Storms and Weather ......................................................................................................24

2.1.6 Key Implications.............................................................................................................25

2.2 Marine Ecosystems ..................................................................................25

2.2.1 Marine Ecosystems in Papahānaumokuākea..............................................................26

2.2.2 Projected Vulnerability to Climate Change..................................................................28

2.2.2.1 Pelagic Ecosystems................................................................................................................30

2.2.2.2 Coral Reef Ecosystems...........................................................................................................31

2.2.2.3 ESA Species of Particular Concern in the Context of Climate Change..............................37

2.2.3 Key Implications.............................................................................................................40

2.3 Island and Atoll Ecosystems ...................................................................43

2.3.1 Papahānaumokuākea’s Island and Atoll Ecosystems ...............................................43

2.3.2 Projected Vulnerabilities to Climate Change...............................................................46

2.3.2.1 Estimates of Habitat Loss to Sea-level Rise .........................................................................46

2.3.2.2 Vulnerabilities of Island Habitats to Climate Change...........................................................49

2.3.2.3 Vulnerabilities of Managed Species to Climate Change ......................................................52

2.3.3 Key Implications.............................................................................................................54

2.4 Cultural and Heritage Resources ............................................................56

2.4.1 Cultural and Heritage Resources Associated with Papahānaumokuākea...............56

2.4.1.1 Tangible Resources ................................................................................................................57

2.4.1.2 Intangible Resources ..............................................................................................................58

2.4.2 Projected Vulnerability to Climate Change..................................................................61

2.4.2.1 Projected Climate Change Impacts to Tangible Cultural and Heritage Resources ...........61

2.4.2.2 Projected Climate Change Impacts to Intangible Cultural and Heritage Values................61

2.4.3 Key Implications.............................................................................................................68
iv

Chapter 3: References and Appendices.................................................... 69

3.1 Glossary ....................................................................................................69

3.2 References ................................................................................................70

3.3 Appendix A. Members of the Steering Committee Formed November 

2011 to Oversee Development of PMNM’s Climate Change Workshop and 

Climate Change Action Plan..........................................................................80

3.4 Appendix B. Agenda of the Expert’s Workshop held June 2012..........81

3.5 Appendix C. Agenda of the PMNM Climate Change Action Plan 

Workshop held September 2013 ...................................................................86
v

Executive Summary

Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are changing the Earth’s climate in ways that are 

projected to have significant and far-reaching effects on ecosystems and people. Within a global 

context, the coral reef and low island ecosystems of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National 

Monument (PMNM) are among the places most vulnerable to climate change. The Monument’s 

northernmost atolls may also be some of the first reef systems globally to be impacted by 

changing ocean chemistry, thus providing early indications of broader indications to come. 

Recognizing these likely impacts, the PMNM Monument’s Management Board (MMB) has 

identified climate change as the most significant threat to this unique World Heritage site, and in 

collaboration with its partners has developed this Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 

(CCVA). The assessment’s purpose of understanding climate change impacts is consistent with a 

number of federal and state government initiatives and evolving international work programs. 

The purpose of this document is to provide guidance for PMNM’s response to climate change by 

providing an in-depth assessment of the likely effects of climate change on the various natural 

and cultural resources of the Monument. The content of the CCVA was developed through a 

series of workshops, interviews with PMNM management partners, and a review of the literature. 

Through this unique process, PMNM not only sought to understand the likely impacts of climate 

change on Papahānaumokuākea’s resources , but also outlined a research and management 

agenda in the form of key objectives and targeted strategies for responding to these 

unprecedented changes. The latter Climate Change Action Plan is in the process of final 

approval by the Co-Trustees of PMNM, and will be published as a separate document in the 

future. 

The CCVA key findings are as follows:

Projected Changes in Climate Variables

• Currently, greenhouse gas emissions are continuing to increase [high confidence]1

. As 

of May 2013, atmospheric CO2 as measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory, stood at 

399.73 ppm; over the past 80,000 years, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have varied 

within a range of about 170 to 300 ppm [high confidence]. Future CO2 concentrations 

are predicted to reach levels between 430– >1,000 parts per million (ppm) by the end of 

the century (IPCC, 2014), depending of the level of future anthropogenic emissions 

[moderate confidence]. It is very likely that the rate and scale of future greenhouse gas 

emissions will determine the speed and severity of climate change impacts to PMNM’s 

resources, as well as the ability of the Monument’s natural resources to adapt to these 

changes [high confidence]. 

• The oceans have absorbed nearly half of the CO2 produced by human societies over the 

past 250 years, changing ocean chemistry through a process known as ocean 

acidification [high confidence]. 

• Both air and sea surface temperatures are warming and an increase in the frequency of 

extreme heat events is projected [moderate confidence]. Under an intermediate 

 1

Qualitative assessments of confidence in this Action Plan are based on the amount of supporting evidence, 

and the level of agreement between experts about the interpretation. The levels of confidence applied to 

assessments made in this Action Plan are: high (67% or greater), medium (33–67%) and low (33% or less).
vi

greenhouse gas emissions scenario, available modeling estimates that air temperatures 

across the NWHI will rise by an average of 2.2 °C (4 °F) by 2100, with the greatest 

temperature increase of 2.6°C (4.7 °F) predicted for Kure, Midway, and Pearl and 

Hermes Atolls, and Lisianski Island [low confidence]. Average sea surface temperatures 

are estimated to increases from 1 - 2.8 °C (2 - 5 °F) by 2100 [moderate confidence].

• Projected sea-level rise, combined with likely increases in storm and wave energy, 

indicate that there is a high likelihood of inundating low-lying islands within the NWHI 

and increasing coastal erosion on all islands over the next 50–100 years [high 

confidence].

• Changes in ocean circulation patterns are likely [high confidence]. 

• Tropical storms may become less frequent, more intense, or change their historical 

trajectories [low confidence]. 

• There may be more extreme weather events and an overall reduction in precipitation 

[low confidence]. 

Projected Impacts to PMNM’s Marine Ecosystems

• Coral reef ecosystems in PMNM are very likely to change as a result of changing ocean 

chemistry and increasing ocean heat content [high confidence]. While warmer sea 

temperatures may benefit some of the Monument’s reefs, degradation due to reduced 

calcification and increased frequency of bleaching and disease events is likely [moderate 

confidence]. If projections of more intense storms are correct, these events will also be 

damaging to reefs weakened by other stressors [high confidence].

• Changing ocean chemistry (also known as ocean acidification) is very likely to reduce 

the ability of some corals, calcareous algae, phytoplankton, and invertebrates to calcify 

their shells and skeletons [high confidence]. 

• Areas of low productivity in the open ocean are likely to expand as warmer surface water 

temperatures increase vertical stratification in the water column, and nutrients from 

cooler, deeper waters are less available in the surface, photic zone [high confidence].

• Changes in ecological community structure, possibly coupled with an overall loss in 

biological diversity, are likely as some species are unable to adapt to altered habitat 

structure, temperatures, and circulation patterns, while other species not currently found 

in PMNM may become established [high confidence].

• Increased stratification and changes in circulation will cause changes in ocean 

productivity, with cascading effects through the food web, negatively impacting predator 

species [moderate confidence].

• Endangered Hawaiian monk seals are likely to be adversely affected by climate change 

as their breeding sites and haul-out sites are inundated and eroded, and the abundance 

of their prey is reduced [moderate confidence].

• Endangered Hawaiian sea turtles may be negatively impacted as major nesting areas at 

French Frigate Shoals are inundated and eroded [low confidence].

• Climate change may exacerbate existing threats from invasive species, marine debris, 

and disease [low confidence].

Projected Impacts to PMNM’s Atoll & Island Ecosystems

• It is very likely that PMNM’s low-lying atolls will be submerged within the next 50-100 

years, with some atolls being affected sooner and more extensively than others [high 

confidence].
vii

• Beach and coastal strand habitats are very likely to be lost as a result of sea level rise, 

storm inundation, and erosion with significant implications for endangered species that 

rely on these habitats for nesting and breeding, including monk seals, sea turtles, and 

seabirds [high confidence].

• Inland waters, including both freshwater habitats and the hypersaline lake on Laysan, 

are likely to be degraded by changes in precipitation, compromising critical habitats for 

a range of endemic and protected species [moderate confidence]. 

• Papahānaumokuākea’s globally important bird populations are at risk from the loss and 

degradation of habitat, changes in prey availability, and direct impacts from changes in 

environmental conditions, particularly increasing land surface temperatures [high 

confidence].

• Climate change impacts on Papahānaumokuākea’s endemic plant and arthropod species 

are likely, however, major information gaps on these species prevent an adequate 

vulnerability assessment [high confidence].

Projected Impacts to PMNM’s Cultural & Heritage Resources

• PMNM’s tangible cultural and heritage resources, which include natural resources and 

archeological sites and artifacts, will be negatively affected by climate change [high 

confidence].

• Archaeological sites and artifacts are likely to be more resistant and resilient to climate 

change impacts than natural resources [high confidence].

• There are at least four categories of intangible cultural values associated with 

Papahānaumokuākea: universal values, Native Hawaiian values, heritage values, and 

values derived from PMNM’s opportunity to serve as an exemplar site for science and 

management. These values are the result of human experiences or perceptions of 

Papahānaumokuākea, and they can contribute a sense of place and well-being for key 

constituencies and society at large [high confidence]. The impact of climate change on 

these social values is largely unknown and warrants further research [high confidence].
Chapter 1: Introduction

1

Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION

 

Small islands, whether located in the tropics or higher

latitudes, have characteristics which make them especially

vulnerable to the effects of climate change, sea-level rise,

and extreme events (very high confidence). 

- IPCC Working Group II, Technical Summary, 2007, p. 57

It is widely recognized that anthropogenic inputs of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere since 

the industrial revolution are changing the Earth’s climate in ways that are projected to have 

significant and far-reaching effects on ecosystems and people (IPCC, 2007a, b, 2014). Within a 

global context, the coral reef and low island ecosystems of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine 

National Monument (PMNM) are among the places most vulnerable to climate change. 

Recognizing these likely impacts, the Monument’s Management Board (MMB) has identified 

climate change as the most significant threat to this unique World Heritage site, and in 

collaboration with its partners has developed this Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment 

(CCVA).

The CCVA presents a prioritized synthesis of our current understanding about likely impacts of 

climate change on Papahānaumokuākea. Its content was developed by considering a broader 

suite of potential impacts and adaptation options, which are introduced in Section 1.1. The 

process used to develop the CCVA is described in Section 1.2 and the Plan’s guiding principles 

and goals are presented in Section 1.3. A Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) that outlines the 

research and management agenda for responding to climate change was also developed in tandem 

with this CCVA, and will be published as a separate document in the future once it is endorsed by 

all Co-Trustees of PMNM. Once finalized, PMNM’s CCAP will guide the Monument in 

prioritizing its activities, effectively partnering with related initiatives, and contributing to 

broader scientific and policy dialogues.
Chapter 1: Introduction

2

1.1 Understanding and Responding to Climate Change: 

Dimensions of the Challenge

Many scales of climate change are in fact natural, from the slow 

tectonic scale, to the fast changes embedded within glacial and 

interglacial times, to the even more dramatic changes that 

characterize a switch from glacial to interglacial. So why worry 

about global warming, which is just one more scale of climate 

change? The problem is that global warming is essentially off 

the scale of normal in two ways: the rate at which this climate 

change is taking place, and how different the "new" climate is 

compared to what came before.

- Anthony Barnosky, Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming

Incorporating climate change into the management of PMNM involves at least three broad tasks. 

It requires identifying and assessing the likely impacts of climate on the Monument’s ecosystems 

and social values. Second, it calls for identifying management goals that are appropriate and 

achievable with the resources available. Finally, it necessitates planning meaningful adaptation 

actions that are able to achieve the articulated goals. The following sections review each of these 

tasks and the unique challenges they pose to PMNM’s efforts to incorporate climate change into 

the Monument’s management.

1.1.1 An Overview of Climate Change Impacts on Natural and Cultural 

Resources

Climate change is very likely to impact PMNM’s ecological and social values both directly and 

through complex interactions. Broad categories of anticipated change are summarized here, and 

Section 2 identifies and prioritizes specific impacts for Papahānaumokuākea. In general terms, 

anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution are warming the 

planet (Figure 1.1) and changing the chemistry of the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere (IPCC, 

2007a, 2014). These changes in temperature and chemistry are causing sea levels to rise, ocean 

waters to become more acidic, shifting atmospheric circulation and associated weather patterns, 

increasing the intensity of storms, and are also expected to cause shifts in ocean currents. While 

all of these attributes have fluctuated over the history of the planet, they have never shifted at the 

speed currently being experienced (IPCC, 2007a, 2014), and the main variable driving these 

changes—greenhouse gas concentrations—has reached levels never before observed (Figure 1.2). 

Section 2.1 describes the best available projections of how environmental variables will change in 

PMNM over the next 100 years.

These far-reaching environmental changes are impacting life on the planet at multiple of levels: 

individual organisms, populations, species, habitats, and ecosystems. At most of these levels, 

impacts result from direct changes in climate variables, from interactions between biological 

components of the system that are changing simultaneously, and from the synergistic impacts of 

climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. For example, climate variables like 

temperature, moisture, and CO2 concentrations can modify the metabolic rate, growth rate, time 

to maturity, and overall health of individual organisms. Cumulatively, these changes can reshape 

the characteristics of local populations, or even entire species, as individuals respond to new 

conditions and birth and death rates change.
Chapter 1: Introduction

3

Species may be able to respond to changing 

environmental conditions in several ways: they 

can alter their physiology and behavior, they 

can adjust their geographic range, or they may 

be able to evolve to better cope with new 

conditions. Species’ ability to adapt in these 

ways depends on both intrinsic and contextual 

characteristics. For example, species that 

reproduce rapidly and have larger populations 

sizes, greater genetic diversity, and better 

dispersal abilities, are more likely to evolve 

characteristics better suited to changing 

conditions. Similarly, generalist species that 

are able to use multiple habitats and to prey or 

forage on a range of species, are more likely to 

adapt than specialist species, whose ability to 

shift is constrained by the availability of other 

particular species or habitats. For this reason, 

endemic species, which are often specialists, 

are believed to be particularly vulnerable to 

climate change, and invasive species, which 

tend to be generalists, may become more 

prolific. 

Because species will all be responding to 

changing conditions simultaneously and in 

different ways, their ability to adapt will also be 

determined by this kaleidoscope of interactions; 

relationships between species and their prey, 

predators, parasites, and symbiotic partners 

may all be renegotiated. Interactions are likely 

to change in both space and time. For example, 

changes in climate variables may trigger shifts 

in the onset and duration of seasonal events, 

such as leafing, breeding, migrations, and many 

others. As species make different behavioral 

adjustments to these changes in seasonality, it 

is likely that timing mismatches may occur, 

which in turn may alter the dynamics of multispecies interactions. For example, if a species’ 

breeding season no longer coincides with the 

peak abundance of its prey, it may be unable to 

adequately provision its young, resulting in a 

disadvantage to the predator and a potential 

advantage to the prey. Similarly, species’ 

ranges will be influenced by multi-species 

interactions. For example, changing 

temperature may increase the frequency or 

Figure 1.2 Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, 

CH4 and N2O over the last 10,000 years (large 

panels) and since 1750 (inset panels). 

Measurements are shown from ice cores 

(symbols with different colors for different 

studies) and atmospheric samples (red lines). 

The corresponding radiative forcings relative to 

1750 are shown on the right hand axes of the 

large panels. Reproduced from IPCC (2007a).
Chapter 1: Introduction

4

intensity of parasite and disease outbreaks, thereby limiting the ability of species to remain in 

their current ranges. Alternately, species may be unable to expand their range as climate shifts if 

their prey are unavailable, or if their predators are too dominant in areas of potential expansion. 

As species are more or less successful in their adaptation attempts, their relative abundance 

within habitats and ecosystems will change to reflect differences in competitive advantage. 

Climate change impacts on habitats and ecosystems include the shifts in species composition 

described above, as well as effects on ecosystem structure, function, and geographic range. In 

cases where the dominant or keystone species that provide ecosystem structure are vulnerable to 

climate change, the ecosystem itself is likely to be susceptible to undergoing a major shift into a 

different state, such as transitioning from a coral reef to an algal reef. Impacts to ecosystem 

functions, such as herbivory, decomposition and nutrient cycling, can result from the loss of 

species providing these functions, or from climate change impacts more directly. For example, 

increased temperature may stratify water bodies, thereby disrupting nutrient cycling and 

productivity. 

Similarly, increased temperature and changes in the amount or timing of precipitation can alter 

the size of an island’s freshwater lens, the evapotranspiration rate, or the characteristics of water 

runoff, all of which could impact an ecosystem’s hydrological cycle, including freshwater 

availability. Additionally, if there is space to enable movement, habitats or ecosystems may 

respond to climate change by shifting their geographic location and extent; in many cases, 

however, anthropogenic development has impeded this adaptive potential. 

The synergistic effects of climate change and other anthropogenic impacts will determine the 

future conditions and characteristics for most of the world’s natural resources. Human activities 

both influence the ability of natural systems to adapt to climate change and can exacerbate 

climate change impacts. For example, higher temperatures can increase the toxicity of 

contaminants, and past engineering of atoll lagoons may worsen stratification from warmer 

temperatures. Additionally, ecosystem degradation from fishing, coastal development, and 

introduced species can all reduce the resilience of ecosystems to climate change.

Climate change will also impact tangible cultural and heritage resources and the intangible values 

people hold for PMNM (see Section 2.4). Changes to natural resources, which are also cultural 

resources, may negatively impact World Heritage values and Native Hawaiian cultural values 

associated with the Monument. Additionally, climate stressors may directly impact cultural and 

heritage sites and artifacts, for example through destruction by more intense storms. Adaptive 

actions are available to enhance social resilience to these changes, including accelerating research 

and conservation efforts, as well as facilitating appropriate access by Native Hawaiian cultural 

practitioners to maintain traditional ecological knowledge.

Within the context of the extensive and inevitable changes described here (Table 1.1), managing 

the Monument’s natural and cultural resources to maintain their current condition is an unviable 

proposition. The following section examines potential goals for PMNM’s efforts to incorporate 

climate change into the Monument’s management.
Chapter 1: Introduction

5

Table 1.1 Examples of direct and indirect climate change impacts on socio-ecological systems with 

examples for PMNM. 

Anticipated Changes Examples of Potential Impacts to PMNM

Physiochemical Changes

Increase in atmospheric CO2

Plant species benefit differentially, causing shifts in 

species composition within terrestrial habitats

Changing ocean chemistry (ocean acidification) Reduced calcification by corals, calcareous algae, 

plankton, and other species; overall loss of biodiversity

Increased sea temperature Increased incident and extent of coral bleaching

Increased air temperature On high islands, terrestrial habitats may shift upward

Sea-level rise Loss of beach habitat for monk seals, nesting sea turtles, 

bird species, etc.

Changes to ocean stratification and currents Changes to productivity and the distribution of pelagic 

species

Changes in storm intensity and frequency Damage to coral reef, beach, and terrestrial habitats

Changes in weather and rainfall patterns Shifts in freshwater availability

Biological Changes

Changes in timing of different seasonal events Mismatch between breeding seasons and prey 

availability

Changes in the ranges of different species Monk seals and sea turtles may use MHI beaches more 

as NWHI beaches erode and submerge 

Changes in species interactions, such as competition or 

predation

Endemic species go extinct as they are unable to 

compete and run out of space to move

Changes in critical habitat availability Loss of coral reef, beach, and freshwater areas

Changes in pest or disease outbreak, frequency, and 

severity Greater incidence of coral disease

Social Changes

Changes in tangible cultural resources Negative impacts to natural resources, which are also 

cultural resources

Damage or loss to cultural and heritage sites and 

artifacts Loss of knowledge and experience

Dissociation between Native Hawaiian traditional 

ecological knowledge and contemporary circumstances 

unless sufficient access and observation occur

Loss of culture

Opportunity to compare ecological resilience to climate 

stressors in the highly protected NWHI vs. the 

populated MHI

Better understanding of ecological processes and the 

impacts of anthropogenic stressors

Interactions with other Stressors

Increased toxicity of contaminants Amplified effects of PCBs in the Monument

Expansion of invasive species Degradation of nesting habitats

Possible shifts in marine debris patterns Possible increase in marine debris entanglements

Further stratification of altered lagoons Amplified heat exposure to lagoon habitats

 
Chapter 1: Introduction

6

1.1.2 What are the Goals When Managing for Climate Change?

What is conservation when our goal can no longer be to protect 

or restore a place or species’ populations to the way they were? 

How can we manage populations whose dynamics are shifting 

under our very eyes? We can no longer think in terms of 

safeguarding or maintaining. If the old model is spatial, static, 

and stuck in the status quo, it would seem that we need a 

temporal, kinetic, and forward-thinking model to deal with the 

challenges we face today.

- Hansen & Hoffman, 2011, p. 32

Climate change challenges the commonly-accepted goals of natural resource management 

(Hansen & Hoffman, 2011). For the last half century, natural resource management has occurred 

under a relatively stable climate, and it has been underpinned by an assumption that conservation 

and restoration actions can manage ecosystems in an equilibrium state (Kareiva et al., 2008). Past 

greenhouse gas emissions erode the efficacy of that basic management assumption. Even if we 

achieved curbs on greenhouse gas emissions today, past emissions commit us to climate change 

that is impacting vulnerable ecosystems—such as the coral reefs and low-lying islands of 

Papahānaumokuākea—and will continue to do so for at least the next several decades (IPCC, 

2007a). 

Within this context, what goals should Monument managers establish and what actions should 

they take to achieve PMNM’s vision “to forever protect and perpetuate ecosystem health and 

diversity and Native Hawaiian cultural significance of Papahānaumokuākea”? Workshops, 

interviews with Monument managers and partners, and the literature were used to develop the 

following goals that are relevant for PMNM within the context of climate change. A concise 

statement of the guiding principles and goals adopted by the MMB for this CCVA is presented in 

Section 1.3.

Integrate Multiple Perspectives to Inform Adaptive Management

Success is having informed adaptation and awareness of the effects 

of climate change on the Monument. We need a common 

understanding ... by everyone involved. 

The baseline needs to include not just the western knowledge but 

also the indigenous, traditional knowledge that goes back 200 

generations prior. It has to be a reciprocal relationship ... only in 

that way can we have an integrated knowledge system.

- Respondents, PMNM Climate Change Survey

While Monument managers cannot control the future climate of Papahānaumokuākea, they can 

develop ways of integrating different types of knowledge to foster a shared understanding of 

climate change impacts, management goals, and the likely effectiveness of management actions. 

Developing such a shared understanding enhances the ability to implement well-crafted 

management actions that enjoy broad support from diverse stakeholders. Furthermore, this type 

of integration is embedded within PMNM’s Management Plan and World Heritage designation, 
Chapter 1: Introduction

7

which provide a clear mandate for harmonizing Native Hawaiian and Western scientific ways of 

understanding and managing Papahānaumokuākea.

In the case of PMNM, multicultural constituencies and a long history of human use provide 

opportunities and challenges for facilitating a shared understanding of how climate change should 

be integrated into the Monument’s management. The NWHI has a rich legacy of observation and 

study by Native Hawaiians, scientists and historical users, such as the military, fishers, and other 

industries (Wiener & Wagner, 2013). These accounts vary in regard to time scales and methods, 

but taken together, they offer a unique resource for better understanding the natural variability 

and cycles of climatic conditions, ecosystems, and species within PMNM, as well as the way 

Monument resources have responded to past disturbances. 

While the benefits of integrating knowledge systems to inform adaptive management are 

significant, there are notable challenges to realizing this potential. In particular, there are 

fundamental differences in the ways indigenous cultures and Western scientists generate 

knowledge, which create challenges for facilitating a shared understanding (Bohensky & Maru, 

2011). This document takes an initial step toward establishing such a shared understanding for 

managing PMNM within the context of climate change. However, it is only the first step in a 

journey that requires ongoing commitment, trust, and open-mindedness to achieve a truly 

integrated approach for navigating Papahānaumokuākea through an uncertain future.

Manage for Future Scenarios rather than the Present

You need scenario planning to understand where things are headed; 

based on the scenario plan, you need alternative analyses for 

managers so that they can indicate their preferred responses to 

various futures that might arise. You're not going to stop the ocean 

from rising, you're not going to stop it from being more acidic, and 

you're not going to cool it off, so you have to realize that you may 

have a new normal every year and you have to be prepared for that.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

Uncertainty is not the same thing as ignorance or lack of 

information—it simply means that there is more than one outcome as 

a result of climate change.

- Kareiva et al., 2008, p. 329

Effectively managing for climate change begins with a recognition that fundamental changes are 

occurring and takes account of likely future conditions. In the past, management actions have 

usually been aimed at restoring historical baseline conditions; however, since the climates 

associated with these previous conditions are unlikely to persist into the future, plans aiming to

maintain status quo condition may fail or impede more appropriate adaptation responses. In 

contrast, Hansen and Hoffman (2011) describe a “climate savvy” adaptation response consisting 

of restoration implemented with an understanding of future conditions. For example, a project in 

North Carolina is implementing wetland restoration based on projections of future sea levels 

(Hansen & Hoffman, 2011). 
Chapter 1: Introduction

8

Managing for future conditions introduces greater uncertainty into decision-making. The rate of 

future greenhouse gas emissions, the resulting changes in climatic conditions, as well as the 

ecological and human responses to these new conditions, all introduce uncertainty into 

projections of future conditions. In response, managers are advised to move away from 

“optimum-based decision-making—trying to maximize benefits and minimize losses for a single 

expected future” (Hansen & Hoffman, 2011, p. 209) and move toward scenario-based 

approaches. Scenarios are developed to more fully explore a range of plausible future conditions 

and to identify management actions that can effectively achieve their goals across most or all of 

the likely scenarios (Kareiva et al., 2008). 

Manage for Function and Structure rather than a Static Condition

Two general concepts provide a simple framework for thinking 

about and managing for resilience. One is to ensure that 

ecosystems have all the components they need in order to 

recover from disturbances...The other is to support the species 

composing the structural foundation of the ecosystem, such as 

corals or large trees as habitat.

- Kareiva et al., 2009, p. 333

As much as we may cherish our surviving architectural and 

archaeological heritage, its destiny, like ours, is dust....

- Adams, 2007, p. 194

My relationship to my place—knowing what’s your function in 

relation to the function of the place.

- Hi‘ilei Kawelo, workshop presentation on Native Hawaiian

perspectives of climate change, 12 June 2012

Many of the people interested in Papahānaumokuākea have traditions of navigating change by 

identifying and maintaining the key functions of a specific place. For example, Native Hawaiians 

and heritage professionals, such as archaeologists, often do not have a goal of maintaining 

resources in a static, equilibrium condition. Rather, their actions are based on understanding the 

function of cultural and heritage resources. PMNM’s maritime archaeologist, Kelly Keogh, 

describes her management goal this way: “Heritage resources are nonrenewable. So I am not 

managing to restore the resource to a particular state, or even to establish an equilibrium. Instead, 

the challenge is to capture this fleeting opportunity to take a glimpse at the past.” From this 

perspective, the function of heritage resources as windows to the past can be realized through 

research, documentation, and education, even if the condition of these resources cannot be 

maintained.

Native Hawaiian approaches to management are also influenced by an understanding of function. 

People and ecosystems are viewed as an interconnected whole that has interrelated functions. In 

some cases, ecosystems are managed to provide a particular function, such as managing fish 

ponds to provide food. Hawaiians themselves also have roles and kuleana (responsibilities) for 

the environment of which they are a part. From a Hawaiian perspective, incorporating climate 
Chapter 1: Introduction

9

change into the Monument’s management requires asking the questions: “What is the function of 

PMNM?” and “What is our function in relation to Papahānaumokuākea?” (Kawelo, workshop 

presentation). These questions are explored in Section 2.4.

For natural resource managers and ecologists, a focus on ecosystem function and structure stems 

from theories about how to support ecological resilience and from practical experience with 

restoration. Ecological resilience refers to an ecosystem’s ability to withstand disturbances, such 

as climate change, without shifting to an alternate state. For example, if coral reef ecosystems are 

resilient, they will recover after a coral bleaching event; if not, they may permanently shift from 

coral reefs to algal beds with an accompanying change in species composition.

Managing for ecosystem function and structure requires identifying these attributes. Ecosystem 

functions include providing habitat for a range of species and cycling nutrients throughout the 

food web. Maintaining ecosystem function is sometimes conceptualized as maintaining the 

functional groups within the ecosystem that carry out various roles, such as herbivory or 

decomposition. Maintaining biological diversity can be viewed as a proxy for maintaining 

ecosystem function based on the idea that greater diversity provides insurance that some 

organisms from each functional group will survive disturbances, enabling key functions to 

continue. Ecosystem structure is defined as the patterns of interactions between organisms in time 

and space (Odum, 1971), or more simply as the species that provide the dominant physical 

structure, such as corals on reefs or trees in forests (Kareiva et al., 2008). Sections 2.2 and 2.3 

identify key ecosystem functions and structures for PMNM’s marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

Within the context of climate change, focusing management on maintaining key functions and 

structures may provide a more targeted, flexible, and realistic way of adapting to new conditions; 

although, climate change impacts on these functions and structures themselves will remain a 

challenge.

Integrate Science & Management with the Main Hawaiian Islands

“I think the value in PMNM is what it can tell us about 

management in the Main Hawaiian Islands. For some issues, 

like monk seals, management across the archipelago may be the 

best way forward.”

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

Flora and fauna will naturally migrate in response to new conditions and facilitating these natural 

migrations is a widely recommended management response to climate change (Glick et al., 

2011). Within the Hawaiian context, the scope for such movement is limited by the remoteness 

of the archipelago; therefore, intra-archipelago migration may be the only option for many 

species seeking to maintain the conditions they need to survive. Currently, the ability of these 

species to migrate from the NWHI to the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI) is sometimes constrained 

by human development in the MHI that limits safe access to beaches or exposes potential nesting 

sites to invasive species. By integrating climate change into natural and cultural resource 

management across the archipelago, managers will be better able to understand the potential for 

these migrations and to implement restoration actions that can help facilitate successful 

relocations. 
Chapter 1: Introduction

10

Additionally, differences in human use between the remote NWHI and the populated MHI 

provide a natural focal point for scientific and cultural learning aimed at untangling the direct 

impacts of climate change from the synergistic impacts of climate change and other human 

stressors. In essence, this inquiry can answer key questions about whether and how managing 

local stressors will enable coral reef and island ecosystems to adapt to climate change. 

Understanding the extent to which local management can support ecosystem resilience to climate 

change, will clarify the benefits of various management options in the MHI, presumably creating 

greater confidence and support for management initiatives. 

Advance Cultural and Scientific Understanding

Because the ecology [of PMNM] is relatively intact, particularly 

when compared to the Main Hawaiian Islands, it’s an amazing 

opportunity for a lot of re-engagement and re-understanding of 

a lot of traditional knowledge. We worry this knowledge could 

potentially be lost quite quickly through climate change.

Climate change is a scientific opportunity; it's not necessarily 

something we would have wanted, but there's certainly a lot of 

options there to learn things.

- Respondents, PMNM Climate Change Survey

If there is a silver lining to climate change, perhaps it is the opportunity and catalyst provided to 

cultural and scientific learning. Inspired by the need to understand the impacts of climate change 

on cultural and natural resources, communities are offered the chance to answer important and 

long-held questions about natural systems—the ways they function, their natural variation, and 

their inherent adaptive capacity. For Native Hawaiians these questions come at a time of cultural 

renaissance, as chants, songs, and cultural practices are resumed and reexamined, thereby 

offering a longitudinal context for understanding climate change that extends back countless 

generations. To the extent that climate change enhances motivation, opportunities, and resources 

for reconnecting with Hawaiian’s deep cultural understanding of Papahānaumokuākea, it is an 

opportunity to enhance the well-being of this community.

Similarly, researchers have identified an outstanding opportunity to answer questions of global 

significance to the scientific community. The unique learning opportunity offered by comparing 

the uninhabited NWHI and the highly altered MHI has been described above, and is further 

outlined in the Hawaiian Archipelago Marine Ecosystem Research (HAMER) Plan (PIFSC, 

2008), and is also the premise for the NOAA Hawaiian Islands Sentinel Site Cooperative. 

Additionally, PMNM’s northernmost atolls may be some of the first tropical reefs in the world to 

be exposed to significantly altered ocean chemistry, offering the potential to serve as a sentinel 

site for other areas if adequate monitoring and research are in place. While the emphasis of this 

CCVA is on research that informs management, the potential to advance more fundamental

science and theory is likely to be of interest to global scientific community and warrants further 

consideration.
Chapter 1: Introduction

11

Inspire Climate-Friendly Behaviors and Environmental Stewardship

We really need to define success as an ultimate recognition of 

the problem of climate change, and an ultimate recognition of a 

sense and responsibility that we are the problem and that we 

need to be taking grand steps to fix the problem, maybe not for 

ourselves but for future generations.

Success is a change in behavior, because most of these things 

are going to keep happening regardless of what adaptation we 

do; we're treating the symptoms until we treat the root cause of 

changing behavior, of the way people act towards the earth, and 

the atmosphere, and water.

- Respondents, PMNM Climate Change Survey

The projected and actual impacts of climate change on PMNM’s fauna, flora, endemic species, 

Native Hawaiian culture, coral reef ecosystems, and low-lying islands offer a compelling 

illustration of the need for climate-friendly behaviors and environmental stewardship. Realizing 

this potential requires interpreting evolving science and cultural insights in a way that is 

understandable and personal for targeted constituencies, as well as the general public. 

Developing partnerships to amplify the Monument’s own expertise in communications, outreach, 

and education can raise awareness and ultimately change behavior to lower greenhouse gas 

emissions.

Serve as an International Example

The Monument has been put on a pedestal as being a uniquely 

pristine environment, so it offers us a glimpse into what change 

can do and an opportunity to create more awareness within the 

community; the impacts of climate change are easier to see in a 

place like the Monument.

Understanding and being able to document change clearly and 

qualitatively would have some value outside the Monument. 

Whether it’s in policy circles or elsewhere, clearly showing the 

linkage between climate change and its impacts on the 

ecosystem, the decline of species or population growth of 

invasive species would be a compelling success in itself.

- Respondents, PMNM Climate Change Survey

In addition to fostering stewardship at an individual level (see above), effectively demonstrating 

the impacts of climate change on Papahānaumokuākea’s social and ecological values has the 

potential to inform national, regional, and international policies related to climate change 

adaptation and mitigation. Combining PMNM’s global profile as a World Heritage Site with 

strong scientific and cultural understandings about the implications of climate change, offers a 

unique opportunity to give voice to these issues within influential policy forums. The research 

priorities identified in this CCVA are intended to help provide the evidence needed to effectively 

contribute to relevant learning opportunities and policy dialogues.
Chapter 1: Introduction

12

1.1.3 Adaptation Options

Achieving the goals articulated above requires combination of research, education, outreach, and 

management actions. Three broad types of management actions are advocated in response to 

climate change: eliminating other stressors, facilitating adaptation, and strengthening institutions. 

A widely accepted rule of thumb is that reducing or eliminating other anthropogenic stressors will 

enable ecosystems and species to have greater adaptive capacity for responding to climate 

change. Within the Monument, these other stressors might include marine debris and introduced 

species. Similarly, conducting actions that enhance adaptive capacity may be helpful, such as 

restoring lagoon circulation patterns altered by past dredging. In selecting targets for these kinds 

of actions, one strategy is to prioritize areas likely to be naturally resilient to climate change 

impacts, so they can serve as refugia and a source of replenishment for more vulnerable areas.

Facilitating adaptation can take a number of forms. It may involve implementing actions to 

maintain key ecosystem functions and structures in light of future conditions; for example, 

restoring coral reefs after bleaching events. Similarly, it could involve implementing actions to 

facilitate the adaptation of managed species, such as creating new nesting areas or relocating 

species that are unable to migrate to new areas as existing habitats are lost. In planning climate 

change adaptation, the concept of connectivity is important, which means considering the 

connections and movements of species and ecosystems now and in the future. In Hawaiʻi, monk 

seals and sea turtles may increasingly move to the MHI as beach habitat is lost in the NWHI;

thus, adaptation for these species could include protecting beach habitat in more populated areas 

of the MHI. .

Well-functioning social institutions can facilitate learning and responsive actions to complex and 

unpredictable situations, such as climate change. For example, by leading and participating in 

local, regional and global learning networks, PMNM’s managers will be better prepared to assess 

changing conditions and implement appropriate management responses. Similarly, the extent to 

which Native Hawaiians can observe, interpret, and share experiences about changing conditions 

in Papahānaumokuākea will influence the ways these changes impact Hawaiian culture. Within 

the context of climate change, it is particularly important that PMNM’s social institutions are able 

to monitor change; respond rapidly to acute events, such as coral bleaching and storms; and to 

facilitate agreement on management actions despite higher levels of uncertainty.

1.2 Purpose and Development of this Document

The Monument’s work to understand and respond to climate change is consistent with a number 

of federal and state government initiatives and evolving international work programs. For 

example, NOAA’s Office of National Marine Sanctuaries has developed a Climate Smart 

Program that aims to certify Sanctuaries as they complete situation analyses of potential climate 

change impacts and begin implementing actions that support adaptation and reduce the carbon 

footprint of Sanctuary facilities. Concurrently, the Department of the Interior has developed 

regional Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), such as the Pacific Islands Climate 

Change Cooperative (PICCC), and supported these initiatives through the development of 

regional Climate Science Centers. Additional scientific support is being facilitated by NOAA’s 

Climate Program, implemented in Hawaiʻi through the Pacific Climate Information Service 

(PaCIS), which operates in close collaboration with a range of regional initiatives, particularly the 

NOAA-funded Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA) Program, NOAA’s Office 

for Coastal Management, and other initiatives. Through these and other partnerships, NOAA and 
Chapter 1: Introduction

13

the Department of the Interior led an enhanced assessment of climate change impacts in the U.S. 

Pacific as part of the National Climate Assessment (Marra et al., 2012). At a state level, Hawaiʻi 

has developed a Local Action Strategy for responding to coral bleaching and disease events in 

collaboration with the University of Hawaiʻi (Hawaiʻi DLNR, 2007).

The purpose of this document is to provide guidance for PMNM’s response to climate change by 

providing a thorough assessment of the likely impacts of climate change on PMNM’s resources. 

The CCVA was developed through a series of workshops, interviews with PMNM management 

partners, and a review of the literature. An early workshop with Monument managers established 

guiding principles and key goals for PMNM’s response to climate change, and created a 13-

member Steering Committee (Appendix A) to plan a larger Expert’s Workshop. The Steering 

Committee met approximately twice a month for five months. A key resource developed to 

support the Expert’s Workshop was an options paper (Schuttenberg & Polhemus, 2012), which 

identified the key impacts to Monument resources and potential responsive actions. This 

technical paper was collaboratively developed and reviewed by technical and management 

experts. 

The Expert’s Workshop was held in June 2012, bringing together managers, cultural 

practitioners, and scientists for three days to develop a shared understanding of the most 

significant climate-related issues facing the Monument and to prioritize appropriate research, 

monitoring, and management actions (see Appendix B). Following the Expert’s Workshop, a 

second workshop was held in September 2013 with the objective of developing the final content 

for the CCVA and recommending priorities and mechanisms for responding to climate change 

(Appendix C). The CCVA is based on the recommendations and conclusions from these two 

workshops. Additionally, through the process outlined above, a series of strategies and specific 

activities for responding to climate change were developed. These specific activities and 

strategies form the basis of a forthcoming Climate Change Action Plan, which is currently in the 

process of approval by the Co-Trustee agencies of PMNM, and will be published subsequently. 

1.3 Relationship to the Monument Management Plan and Other 

Step-Down Plans

The CCVA intersects with the Monument Management Plan and four associated step-down plans 

that expand upon specific management needs of the Monument. Each of these management plans 

is briefly described below, and linkages among the different plans are illustrated in Figure 1.3.

Monument Management Plan (MMP)

The MMP is the main document guiding the work of the Monument Management Board and its 

individual agencies (PMNM, 2008b). The Plan consists of a total of 22 action plans, which are 

organized under the following six priority management areas: (1) understanding and interpreting 

the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, (2) conserving wildlife and habitats, (3) reducing threats to 

the ecosystem, (4) managing human activities, (5) coordinating conservation and management 

efforts, and (6) achieving effective Monument operations. Each action plan of the MMP is guided 

by a desired outcome in a specific management area, and describes strategies and activities to 

achieve that outcome. 
Chapter 1: Introduction

14

Figure 1.1 Links of the CCVA to other management plans of PMNM.

Natural Resource Science Plan

The PMNM Natural Resource Science Plan aims to provide the information required to 

effectively implement research and monitoring strategies in PMNM (PMNM, 2011a). It 

identifies priority activities in five areas of science needs, including (1) habitats and biodiversity, 

(2) ecological processes and connectivity, (3) human impacts, (4) indicators and monitoring of 

ecosystem change, and (5) modeling and forecasting of ecosystem change. The need to 

understand climate change impacts and adaptation options in the NWHI is reflected throughout 

the Natural Resource Science Plan. Further, this plan also recognizes the potential contribution of 

climate change research in the NWHI to informing management efforts in other parts of the 

globe.

Maritime Heritage Research, Education and Management Plan

The PMNM Maritime Heritage Research, Education and Management Plan aims to facilitate an 

interdisciplinary understanding of historical resource use within PMNM (PMNM, 2011b).

Through a focus on maritime archaeology, history, ecology and Native Hawaiian heritage, the 

Plan aims to guide research that informs understanding of how past resource use has influenced 

the ecosystems being managed today. The Plan also contains guidance for education, outreach 

management and protection activities in the NWHI.
Chapter 1: Introduction

15

Native Hawaiian Cultural plan (forthcoming)

The forthcoming PMNM Native Hawaiian Cultural Plan will address priorities for Native 

Hawaiian cultural research and practice within and about the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

The management of PMNM operates under the premise that cultural and natural resources are 

integrally linked, and are considered holistically in management strategies. Native Hawaiians 

have traditionally managed all natural resources as cultural resources, and the forthcoming 

PMNM Native Hawaiian Cultural Plan will apply this same principle. 

Alien Species Plan (forthcoming)

The forthcoming PMNM Alien Species Plan will expand upon alien species research, prevention 

and education goals set forth in the MMP. Strategy 1 of the MMP identifies the need to conduct 

planning to prioritize by threat level, impacts from invasive species and feasibility of controlling 

non-native organisms in the Monument (PMNM, 2008b). The Plan will be developed based on 

the effectiveness of existing protocols and a comprehensive risk assessment of alien species 

introductions.

1.4 Goals and Guiding Principles for Managing 

Papahānaumokuākea in the Context of Climate Change

PMNM’s Monument Management Board has adopted the following guiding principles and goals 

for integrating climate change into the Monument’s management. In adopting this guidance, 

Monument managers considered the best available information about climate change impacts and 

response options, within the context of PMNM’s legal mandates and guiding documents. The 

remainder of this plan presents the evidence on which this guidance is based (Section 2).

 

Guiding Principles

A. Strong scientific evidence indicates that the global climate is changing in ways that will 

profoundly impact the ecosystems across the Hawaiian Archipelago including the NWHI, 

requiring the Monument’s management to be both proactive and adaptive in order to 

remain effective under these new and rapidly evolving conditions.

B. Papahānaumokuākea’s cultural and heritage resources are integral to understanding 

climate change and essential to making decisions about how to manage the Monument 

within this new paradigm.

C. Given the high vulnerability of Papahānaumokuākea’s ecology to climate change, 

reducing the rate and severity of change is one of the most effective ways of protecting 

the Monument’s resources. The Monument’s managers will contribute toward efforts to 

reduce greenhouse gas emissions by strategically engaging in policy and stakeholder 

forums, raising awareness through education and outreach, as well as identifying ways of 

minimizing PMNM’s overall climate footprint.

D. Within the context of climate change and ocean acidification, the Monument will seek to 

maintain ecological integrity by aiming to sustain essential ecosystem structure and 

function in the NWHI, recognizing that the biological diversity, abundance, and 

distributions of flora and fauna will inevitably change in response to changing climate 

conditions, and may require critical integration of natural resource management 

throughout the Hawaiian Archipelago.
Chapter 1: Introduction

16

Goals

Goal 1: Implement trans-disciplinary research and monitoring efforts to understand variation 

in resilience and climate change impacts across the Hawaiian Archipelago under differing 

climate change scenarios.

Goal 2: Implement appropriate adaptive actions before ecosystem integrity and social values 

are compromised.

Goal 3: Contribute toward regional and national efforts to raise awareness about climate 

change and change behavior through strategic partnering and engagement in policy, 

education, and outreach.

Goal 4: Serve as an international example in the context of climate change for collaborative 

management of natural, cultural and historic resources that hold universal and indigenous 

significance.

Goal 5: Account for climate change in the Monument’s operations and logistics plans.

 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

17

 

Chapter 2

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

 

This section summarizes the available scientific evidence about how climate variables will 

change over the next 100 years in the NWHI (Section 2.1), and what these changes mean for 

PMNM’s marine (Section 2.2), terrestrial (Section 2.3), and cultural and heritage (Section 2.4) 

resources. These resources are further described in Sections 2.2 through 2.4, as are their key 

vulnerabilities to climate change. This vulnerability assessment forms the basis for future 

research and management strategies. 

2.1 Climate Variables

Climate change is driven by emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2. As of March 2016, 

atmospheric CO2 stood at 405 ppm, an increase of over 85 ppm from when standardized 

measurements first began to be collected in the late 1950s at the Mauna Loa Observatory (Figure 

2.1.1). Over the past 80,000 years, atmospheric CO2 concentrations 

Figure 2.1.1 Trend in atmospheric concentration of CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory.
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

18

have varied within a range of about 170–300 ppm. Depending on the particular Representative 

Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario employed, CO2 concentrations are predicted to reach 

levels between approximately 420–930 ppm by the end of the century (IPCC, 2014). It is 

important to note, however, that while past assessments of future climate scenarios are based on 

the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), this has been superseded by an approach that 

predicts future greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere using four RCPs designated 

numerically as RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5 respectively, each of which represents a 

progressively higher concentration trend of atmospheric CO2 by 2100. Based on current trends, 

RCP 6.0 or RCP 8.5 should be considered as the most likely future outcomes at this time, and it is 

therefore recommended that Monument management decisions be made in the context of these 

projected concentrations, and the associated values of other stressors and outcomes linked to 

them.

Table 2.1.1 Estimated future states for climate change variables under lowest and highest RCP 

concentration scenarios, based on data contained in the IPCC Assessment Report 5 (2014). It 

should be noted that the projections for air temperature in particular hold significant uncertainty 

due to the influence of the surrounding ocean in the maritime sector containing the Monument. It 

should be further noted that based on current carbon emission trends, RCP 8.5 outcomes are far 

more likely than RCP 2.6 outcomes.

Variable 2035

Predicted Value

RCP 2.6–RCP 8.5

2100 

Predicted Value

RCP 2.6

(420 ppm)

2100

Predicted Value

RCP 8.5

(930 ppm)

Sea Surface 

Temperature (SST)

 +0.5–0.9 °F?

+0.3–0.5 °C

 +1.8–3.1 °F?? 

+1.0–1.7 °C

?+4.0–4.9 °F

 +2.2–2.7 °C?

Ocean surface pH1 8.05–8.00 8.05 7.75

Sea-level rise +2–8 inches

+5–20 cm

+1.0 feet

+0.28 m 

+3.2 feet

+0.98 m

Crossover Point 

Reached2 No No Yes

Tropical Storms Fewer,

Stronger

Fewer,

Stronger

Fewer,

Stronger

Air Temperature3 

 (Land)

+0.7–2.0 °F?

+0.4–1.1 °C

 +2.3–3.4 °F?? 

+1.3–1.9 °C

?+7.2–11.0 °F

 +4.0–6.1 °C?

Air Temperature 

 (Ocean)

+0.5–0.9 °F?

+0.3–0.5 °C

 +1.4–2.1 °F?? 

+0.8–1.2 °C

+4.7–7.2 °F

 +2.6–4.0 °C? 1

Current open ocean pH at the sea surface is approximately 8.1. 

2 The “cross-over point” is a threshold at which sea-level rises above the level of the carbonate platform on 

which an atoll is formed, allowing waves to directly attack the overlying alluvial cap, which is structurally 

weaker and more vulnerable.

3

These values are based on calculations including continental land masses, and are likely to be excessive in 

the context of the small islands in the Monument, except perhaps in particularly sheltered locations.

PMNM is very likely to be affected by changes in climate variables over the next century (Table 

2.1.1). Ocean pH is very likely to decline as more carbon dioxide is absorbed into the ocean 

(Section 2.1.1); air and sea temperatures are very likely to continue to warm (Section 2.1.2); sea 

level is very likely to rise due to thermal expansion of water and melting of land-based glaciers 

(Section 2.1.3); and ocean circulation patterns are likely to change at local to global scales 

(Section 2.1.4). Storm intensity may also increase, and extreme flood and drought events may 

become more frequent (Section 2.1.5). The general patterns and directions of these trends are 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

19

predicted through global scale models; however, projecting how these variables will change 

locally at the scale of the Monument is difficult based on the coarse spatial resolution of current 

climate models. Additionally, validation is further hindered by inadequate local instrumentation 

networks. The various manifestations of climate change listed above will drive impacts to the 

natural, cultural, and heritage resources of the Monument. The sections below summarize 

findings of a critical review conducted by PMNM’s Climate Change Working Group of what is 

currently known about climate change variables, and which ones are likely to be the most 

significant drivers of change in the Monument.

2.1.1 Ocean Acidification

The oceans absorb CO2 from the atmosphere, and nearly half of the CO2 produced by human 

societies over the past 250 years is estimated to have been taken up by the oceans (Royal Society, 

2005). This additional dissolved CO2 changes the chemistry of the oceans (Figure 2.1.2) and is 

projected to decrease the average ocean pH by 0.4–0.5 compared with pre-industrial levels 

(Caldeira & Wickett, 2003). If this hypothesis is correct, the oceans will by 2100 attain a lower 

pH than at any time in the past 400,000 years (Feely et al., 2004). 

When CO2 is absorbed by seawater, chemical reactions occur that reduce seawater pH values, 

carbonate ion (CO3

2–

) concentrations, and saturation states of the biologically important CaCO3

minerals calcite (Ωca) and aragonite (Ωar) in a process commonly referred to as ocean 

acidification (Feely et al., 2009). For many organisms, including corals, crustose coralline algae, 

mollusks, and plankton, the reduced availability of these calcium carbonate minerals is very 

likely to make it more difficult to incorporate calcium carbonate into their shells and skeletons 

(Wootton et al., 2008, also see Section 2.2). Evidence from the geologic record, principles of 

thermodynamics, and the evolutionary pathways of CaCO3 secreting organisms, also indicates 

that as the aragonite saturation point decreases, not only will calcification rates decrease, but 

carbonate dissolution rates will increase, meaning that coral skeletons may dissolve more easily 

(Crook et al., 2013). In addition to impairing calcification, ocean acidification may also 

negatively impact other aspects of development and reproduction in marine organisms (Wittman 

& Portner, 2013), discussed further in Section 2.2.

Figure 2.1.2 Sea surface pH trends from 1979–2004.
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

20

Current models and observations indicate that ocean acidification proceeds more rapidly at depth 

and in colder waters, however, its effects will eventually work their way into the upper ocean 

layers inhabited by shallow-water reef-building corals, a trend that already appears evident in the 

northern Pacific (Byrne et al., 2010). For example, data from Station Aloha, an oceanographic 

monitoring site northeast of Oʻahu (Karl & Lukas, 1996), indicate that pH at the ocean surface is 

decreasing as colder more acidic waters are increasingly being mixed into the surface waters; this 

mixing appears to be driven by changes in water density at the surface and at depth that are 

thickening the upper ocean mixed layer at a rate of about 4 m/decade.

2.1.2 Air and Ocean Temperatures

Both the atmosphere and the oceans are warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect caused 

by the accumulation of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (IPCC, 2014), and 

Hawaiʻi is no exception to this trend (Giambelluca et al. 2008). Global average land surface 

temperature is projected to increase 1.3–6.1 °C by 2100, with best estimates placing the range 

between 1.8 and 4.0 °C (IPCC, 2014). To better understand changes in air temperature across the 

NWHI, Krause et al. (2012) downscaled six general circulation models using the delta change 

method and emissions scenario A1B, an intermediate emissions scenario in which CO2

concentrations stabilize at 750 ppm. Their results project an increase in average maximum 

temperature by approximately 2.2°C (SD 0.2) across the NWHI by 2100 (Table 2.1.2), with the 

greatest temperature increase of 2.6°C (SD 1.7) predicted for Kure, Midway, Pearl and Hermes 

and Lisianski. These values have not been recalculated in the context of the newer RCP 

concentration scenarios, and should therefore be considered provisional, but are included herein 

as one peer-reviewed projection of possible future values.

The ocean is an enormous reservoir of heat, with the top few meters storing an amount of heat 

equivalent to that in the entire atmosphere (Houghton, 2004). The increase in average tropical sea 

surface temperature (SST) is expected to run between 50–80% of the change seen in average 

atmospheric temperature (Lough, 2007). Therefore, average sea temperatures in the vicinity of 

coral reefs will probably increase by several degrees Celsius over the course of this century 

(Figure 2.1.3; Guinotte et al., 2003). The implications of warmer temperatures and the frequency 

of extreme temperature events on coral reef ecosystems are discussed further in Section 2.2.

Table 2.1.2 Projections of change in average maximum temperature for the NWHI based on downscaling six 

general circulation models using the A1B emissions scenario (reproduced from Krause et al. 2012).
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

21

Figure 2.1.3 Current global trends in sea surface temperature deviation from long-term means based 

on satellite data.

Figure 2.1.4 Trends in Pacific Decadal Oscillation from 1900–2010, showing recent transition from 

positive to negative.
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

22

Short to medium-term climate oscillations, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and 

the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are also likely to introduce variability into the overall

warming trend. There is no scientific consensus on whether ENSO events will change in relative 

duration or intensity, but there is agreement that these events will continue to be a significant 

source of inter-annual variability in SST across the Pacific region (Lough, 2007). Current global 

circulation models predict warming of SSTs in an equatorial strip, stronger evaporative cooling 

outside the equator, a weakening of Hadley Cells and associated atmospheric circulation (Vecchi 

et al., 2006), and more persistent El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific (Xie et al., 2010). 

These model predictions, however, are based primarily on data collected prior to 1995, and are 

not supported by more recent observations. Instead, climate in the Eastern Pacific during the past 

15 years has been characterized by increasing trade wind speeds, cooler SSTs, and more 

persistent La Niña conditions. This inconsistency between global model predictions and current 

reality may possibly be linked to the PDO, a climate cycle that operates on a much longer scale 

than the ENSO cycle that drives El Niño and La Niña events (Figure 2.1.4). The current 15 year 

prediction (2009-2024) for the PDO indicates that SSTs in the Hawaiʻi sector will remain cooler 

than long term averages during this period (Meehl et al., 2009), before the PDO cycle shifts to a 

warm phase around 2025.

2.1.3 Sea-Level Rise

Globally, average sea level is projected to rise 30–40 cm by 2100, based on the expansion of 

warming water (Church & White, 2006; IPCC, 2014), and up to 1 m if current rates of carbon 

emission continue on their sharp upward trend and the melting of ice sheets and glaciers 

accelerates dramatically (Nicholls et al., 2011; Rignot et al., 2011; Velicogna & Wahr, 2006). 

Rahmstorf et al. (2011) estimate a general relationship of 1 m of sea-level rise for each 1.8 °C of 

warming. Sea-level rise may not be a slow, gradual and linear process; recent isotopic dating of 

coral samples from Tahiti taken by the Ocean Drilling Program indicates that past continental icesheet collapse in the Pleistocene led to rises in sea level on the order of 20 m in less than 500 

years, which would be 4 times the rate currently predicted (Deschamps et al., 2012). Additionally, 

a recent study of terrestrial ice melt from Greenland, Antarctica and other places found that 

resulting sea-level rises may disproportionately affect Hawaii as gravity redistributes this melt 

water around the globe (Spada et al., 2013). These projections, combined with likely increases in 

storm and wave energy, mean that there is a high likelihood of inundating low-lying islands 

within the NWHI and increasing coastal erosion on all islands over the next 50–100 years 

(Nicholls et al., 2011). 

Observations since the 1870 indicate an average sea-level rise of nearly 20 cm, with average rises 

of 3.2 mm/year since 1993 (Nicholls & Cazenave, 2010; IPCC, 2014); however, this rate is not 

uniform around the globe (Figure 2.1.5). In Hawaiʻi, the average rate of sea-level rise has been 

1.46 mm/year since 1900, which is only half the global rate. Even within the Hawaiian 

Archipelago this rate is variable, ranging from 0.7 mm/yr at Midway to 3.27 mm/yr at Hilo 

(Parker 2013). These trends have been largely deduced from tide gauge records, which have 

recently been cross-validated with satellite altimetry; the data from both tide gauges and satellites 

correlate well, indicating that the tide gauge records are accurate for the pre-satellite time series, 

which extends back for 90 years in the Monument.

The currently slow sea-level rise in much of the Hawaiian Archipelago is probably an interim 

anomaly linked to the current phase of the PDO. The current phase of the PDO is associated with 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

23

stronger winds (Firing et al., 2004) that move surface waters toward the Western Tropical Pacific, 

which has experienced rapid sea-level rise since 1995 (Merrifield, 2011; Merrifield et al., 2009). 

During the next phase of the PDO, trade winds are expected to weaken, thus potentially leading to 

more rapid, non-linear rises in sea level across the NWHI. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

(USACE) has developed a sea-level change calculator, which has subsequently been modified by 

NOAA (http://www.corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm), to help assess how future sea-levels 

could look like. While this tool currently does not have any active gauges in the NWHI, the 

calculator predicts future sea levels exceeding today’s values by 0.17-1.98 m in 2100, at the 

active tide gauge closest to PMNM in Nawiliwili, Kauaʻi.

Even before physically overtopping PMNM’s atolls, rising sea levels will impact the Monument’s 

islands, atolls, ecosystems, and infrastructure in a number of ways, discussed in more detail in 

Section 2.3. Initially, it will change the size, shape, and possibly the location of atolls (Webb & 

Kench, 2010). Over time, wave action will attack the alluvial cap that covers the carbonate 

platform on which atolls are formed, leading to accelerated erosion even prior to overtopping as 

this cross-over point is reached (Dickinson, 2009; also see Table 2.1.1 and Section 2.1.5). 

Additionally, more frequent seawater over-wash during storms and high tides will alter habitats 

and may threaten some nesting areas and certain endemic plants. Sea-level rise will also reduce

the amount of water that is held in the freshwater lens of atolls and small islands, a resource that 

is vital to many atoll plants and animals; thin lenses not only contain less water, but are also more 

susceptible to degradation in quality due to saltwater intrusion (Presley, 2005; Bridges & 

McClatchey, 2009).

2.1.4 Ocean Circulation

Changes in temperature and freshwater input at the poles are expected to change the intensity and 

direction of thermohaline circulation patterns (Rahmstorf, 1997; Steinberg, 2007; Stocker & 

Schmittner, 1997). In the tropical Pacific, several changes have already been observed. In 

particular, there has been a steady expansion in the extent of subtropical oligotrophic gyres over 

the past decade (Polovina et al., 2008), primarily during the winter months. These are waters with 

low surface chlorophyll and correspondingly low primary productivity. The area encompassed by 

expanding gyre in the North Pacific includes the Monument and the implications of these changes 

for PMNM’s marine environments are discussed in Section 2.2.

Figure 2.1.5 Current trends in sea-level rise based on satellite altimetry.
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

24

2.1.5 Storms and Weather

While there is no clear consensus on how climate change may affect tropical storms, there is 

some evidence that storms may become more intense (Yu et al., 2010) or change their historical 

trajectories (Li et al., 2010). Some global circulation models predict that climate change will 

result in fewer tropical storms, due to an increased propensity for wind shear in high SST 

environments (Nolan & Rappin, 2008), but that those storms which do form will be more intense 

(Bengtsson et al., 2007). Climate change may result in approximately a 25% increase in 

atmospheric water vapor in the tropics over the next 100 years, and a longer residence time of 

water in the atmosphere; this moister atmosphere is capable of retaining greater heat content, and 

thereby spawning stronger storms (Bengtsson et al., 2007). Global circulation models therefore 

predict an increase in the proportion of extreme weather events in the most severe categories 

(IPCC, 2007a; Webster et al., 2005), which may cause significant shoreline loss or damage due to 

erosion by waves. There is already some evidence of increased storm events in the Pacific Ocean 

and in the Monument. For example, tide gauge observations at Midway suggest that the number 

of storm events originating outside the tropics has increased significantly over the past 50 years 

(Aucan et al., 2012), and deep-water significant wave heights in the Pacific Northwest are 

estimated to have increased by nearly 2 m over the last 30 years (Ruggiero et al., 2010). 

Storm events can cause severe damage to PMNM’s natural and cultural resources, including the 

islands and atolls themselves. As noted previously, atolls may be lost to wave action long before 

sea-level rise physically overtops them, because once sea-level rises above the level of the 

carbonate platform on which the atoll is formed, waves are able to directly attack the overlying 

alluvial cap, which is structurally weaker and more vulnerable (Dickinson, 2009). The “crossover 

point” at which this transition occurs may be reached in the Monument and many other 

archipelagoes in the Pacific as early as 2050. Additionally, storm waves are known to cause 

significant damage to coral reef ecosystems (Fabricus et al., 2008), and storm overwash has 

caused significant damage to near-shore ecosystems, nesting areas, and infrastructure (See 

Section 2.3).

Table 2.1.3 Projections of change in total annual precipitation for the NWHI based on downscaling six 

general circulation models using the A1B emissions scenario (reproduced from Krause et al. 2012).

The impacts of climate change on weather patterns across the Hawaiian Archipelago is also not 

well understood, however, some evidence suggests an increase in extreme events and an overall 

reduction in precipitation. Overall, precipitation trends are likely to remain significantly 

influenced by regional ENSO and PDO events, therefore trend prediction is difficult. In the MHI, 

studies have shown a shift toward more light rainfall events, and fewer heavy rain events, 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

25

resulting in increased drought (Chu et al., 2010) and reduced stream flow (Oki, 2004). To better 

understand changes in annual precipitation across the NWHI, Krause et al. (2012) downscaled six 

general circulation models using the delta change method and emissions scenario A1B, an 

intermediate emissions scenario in which CO2 concentrations stabilize at 750 ppm. Their results 

project decreases in precipitation across PMNM by 2100 (Table 2.1.3). As noted previously in 

regard to air temperature projections by these same authors, this analysis has not been revised in 

the context of more recent RCP scenarios, so its projections should be viewed as provisional.

2.1.6 Key Implications

Expert analysis of existing evidence suggests the following changes in key climate variables for 

PMNM:

• It is very likely that the rate and extent of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will 

determine the speed and severity of other climate change impacts, and the ability of 

natural systems to adapt to these changes. As of March 2015, atmospheric CO2 stood at 

400 ppm; over the past 80,000 years, by contrast, atmospheric CO2 concentrations have 

varied within a range of about 170-300 ppm.

• The oceans have absorbed nearly half of the CO2 produced by human societies over the 

past 250 years, changing ocean chemistry through a process known as ocean 

acidification; one of the major implications of ocean acidification is the reduced 

availability of calcium carbonate minerals which are the building blocks that many 

marine organisms use to build their shells and skeletons.

• Both air and SST are warming and an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events is 

projected. Under an intermediate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, available modeling 

estimates that air temperatures across the NWHI will rise by an average of 2.2 °C (4 °F) 

by 2100, with the greatest temperature increase of 2.6°C (4.7 °F) predicted for Kure, 

Midway, and Pearl and Hermes and Lisianski. Average SST are estimated to increases 

from 1.0–2.8 °C (2–5 °F) by 2100.

• Projected sea-level rise, combined with likely increases in storm and wave energy, 

indicate that there is a high likelihood of periodic inundation for the low-lying islands 

within the NWHI, and steadily increasing potential for coastal erosion on all islands over 

the next 50–100 years.

• Changes in ocean circulation patterns are likely. There is already evidence that areas with

low surface chlorophyll and correspondingly low primary productivity, known as 

oligotrophic gyres, are expanding. Changing circulation may also influence the 

connectivity between islands, atolls, and the broader Pacific.

• Tropical storms are projected to become less frequent but more intense, and may change 

their historical trajectories. 

• There may be more extreme weather events and an overall reduction in precipitation.

2.2 Marine Ecosystems

Critical areas to me would be the effects of climate change on corals, those foundational 

species that support entire ecosystems.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

Papahānaumokuākea’s marine ecosystems are considered some of the geologically oldest, most 

remote, and pristine in the world (Grigg et al. 2008). This section describes the Monument’s 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

26

marine ecosystems (Section 2.2.1), identifies and prioritizes projected vulnerabilities to climate 

change (Section 2.2.2), and summarizes the issues anticipated to be of greatest concern to these 

ecosystems and associated species (Section 2.2.3).

2.2.1 Marine Ecosystems in Papahānaumokuākea

Consisting of ten major island, atoll, and reef areas, the Monument provides a refuge for marine 

life within an otherwise expansive open-ocean environment. There are also numerous submerged 

banks and seamounts within the PMNM’s boundaries. These ecosystems are an essential spiritual 

and cultural foundation for Native Hawaiians (Figure 2.2.1), and they provide critical habitat for a 

range of unique and protected species, including the Hawaiian monk seal, green and hawksbill 

sea turtles, and more than 20 species of cetaceans. Overall, it is estimated that the NWHI are 

home to over 8,400 marine species, one quarter of which are found only in the Hawaiian 

Archipelago. 

The Monument’s marine ecosystems are strongly influenced by the area’s environmental 

conditions and remoteness. Large-scale climate events, like the PDO and El Niño, influence the 

location of major oceanic currents, with significant impacts on nutrient availability and 

productivity throughout the NWHI, particularly in the northern part of the archipelago (Polovina, 

1984; Polovina & Haight, 1999). Within the Monument’s coastal waters, temperature and 

movement patterns of strong winter waves have shaped the distribution of coral reefs. 

Summarizing several decades of research, Grigg et al. (2008) concluded that large winter swells 

are responsible for the best developed reefs occurring in lagoons or along southwest exposures 

throughout the archipelago, and that temperature and winter waves are the main drivers behind 

the peak in coral abundance and diversity found in the middle of the NWHI, around FFS and 

Maro Reef. They argue that cool winter temperatures, and to a lesser extent lower solar radiation, 

suppress coral growth in the Monument’s northern atolls, around Kure and Midway; whereas, 

exposure to severe winter waves around the southern islands of Mokumanamana and Nihoa 

prevent any substantial reef development. Coral reef biodiversity peaks at FFS, and is possibly 

influenced by wind and water circulation patterns that create a corridor of connectivity with 

Johnston Atoll (Friedlander et al., 2009; Kobayashi, 2006; Toonen et al., 2011). Throughout the 

Hawaiian chain, the general east-to-west direction of winds, currents, and therefore larval 

movement, mean that the recovery of NWHI reefs after mortality events may be influenced by the 

condition of reefs at Johnston Atoll and the MHI (Friedlander et al., 2009; Grigg et al., 2008). 

However, larval retention around individual islands is high, and connectivity studies suggest that 

to achieve recovery from a neighboring island after a major mortality event would take many 

generations (Toonen pers. comm.)

The Monument’s coral reefs have low diversity and coral cover by global standards, but 

exceptionally high endemism (Grigg et al., 2008; Maragos et al., 2009; Kane et al., 2014). 

Approximately 60 species of zooxanthellate stony corals have been identified (Maragos et al., 

2009; Maragos et al., 2004) and roughly 30% of PMNM’s corals are endemic (Grigg et al. 2008). 

Average coral cover on NWHI reefs ranges from 5-20% (Maragos et al., 2009). These patterns 

are likely due to the NWHI’s cooler, subtropical waters and the extreme remoteness of the 

Monument. 

Reefs within PMNM are dominated by macroalgae species. Calcareous algae play a critical role 

in binding the reef together and contributing to sand production on beaches; turf algae and 

seaweeds are major contributions to the base of the foodweb (Friedlander et al., 2009; Polovina, 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

27

Box 2.2.1 In Native Hawaiian genealogy, the 

coral polyp is the first created life form:

Birth—creation—is a central pillar of traditional cultures 

across the globe. In Native Hawaiian culture, human life 

comes not only from two biological parents, but from a 

complex spiritual and literal genealogy that ties humans 

with a bond of kinship to everything else, both living and 

non-living, in the natural world. Pō, the primordial female 

darkness from which all life springs and to which it returns 

after death, is seen as giving birth to the world, its natural 

components, all of the Hawaiian gods, and humans. The 

union of her progeny, Kumulipo and Pō‘ele, gives rise to all 

the creatures of the world, beginning in the oceans with the 

coral polyp—a genealogy that, like current theories of 

evolution, starts with the simplest known life form and 

moves to the more complex. 

- PMNM World Heritage Application, p. 27

This genealogy is described in the Kumulipo, a Hawaiian 

Creation Chant, quoted here with Beckwith’s (1951)

translation:

O ke au i kahuli wela ka honua

At the time when the earth became hot

O ke au i kahuli lole ka lani

At the time when the heavens turned about

O ke au i kukaiaka ka la

At the time when the sun was darkened

E hoomalamalama i ka malama

To cause the moon to shine

O ke au o Makalii ka po

The time of the rise of the Pleiades

O ka walewale hookumu honua ia

The slime, this was the source of the earth

O ke kumu o ka lipo, i lipo ai

The source of the darkness that made darkness

O ke kumu o ka Po, i po ai

The source of the night that made night

O ka lipolipo, o ka lipolipo

The intense darkness, the deep darkness

O ka lipo o ka la, o ka lipo o ka po

Darkness of the sun, darkness of the night

Po wale ho--i

Nothing but night

Hanau ka po

The night gave birth

Hanau Kumulipo i ka po, he kane

Born was Kumulipo in the night, a male

Hanau Poele i ka po, he wahine

Born was Po‘ele in the night, a female

Hanau ka Uku-koakoa, hanau kana, he Akoakoa, 

puka...

Born was the coral polyp, born was the coral, came forth...

1984). Overall, 355 species of algae have been 

identified within Papahānaumokuākea (Vroom 

& Page, 2006). 

The marine food web of the NWHI has been 

studied extensively and an influential model of 

the trophic structure at FFS (Box 2.2.1) was 

developed and published in the 1980s 

(Polovina, 1984), which has been subsequently 

updated (Friedlander et al., 2009). These and 

other studies of the trophic relationships at FFS 

identify that benthic algae make the greatest 

contribution to higher trophic levels, followed 

by phytoplankton. The system is generally 

conceived as having a relatively short food 

chain of roughly four trophic layers (Friedlander 

et al., 2009; Polovina, 1984). Benthic algae and 

phytoplankton support a primarily herbivorous 

2nd tropic layer of zooplankton, which are 

mainly fish larvae, and benthic invertebrates. 

The 3rd trophic layer of carnivorous and 

omnivorous organisms includes small pelagic 

fishes, lobsters, crabs, reef fish, bottom fish, as 

well as herbivorous green sea turtles (see also 

Grigg et al., 2008, Friedlander et al., 2009 and 

Kane et al. 2014 for further discussion about 

these fish communities, their high levels of 

endemism, and their history of harvest within 

the NWHI). The food chain culminates in a 

dominant layer of apex predators that include 

sharks, jacks, scombrids, monk seals, and 

seabirds. These predators provide a strong topdown forcing on the NWHI food web and their 

vulnerability to climate change can be expected 

to influence the future structure of this unique 

system. It is often noted that this predatordominated structure differentiates the NWHI 

and MHI; apex predators account for more than 

50% of the total fish biomass in the NWHI, 

while this same group accounts for less than 3% 

in the MHI (Friedlander & DeMartini, 2002).

Parrish and Boland (2004) report that the Monument’s moderately deep terraces and banks (30-40 

m) are similarly dominated by apex predators, but with an overall mean biomass that is one fifth 

of that reported for shallow reefs in the region. These areas make up more than 4500 km2 of the 

region’s reef area, and are dominated by algal meadows (65% cover) and relief features that 

aggregate fish populations (Parrish & Boland 2004).
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

28

More recently, a series of NOAA expeditions have been launched to survey PMNM’s coral reef 

ecosystems found at depths below conventional SCUBA diving (>30 m; see Wiener & Wagner, 

2013). These coral reef ecosystems, commonly known as mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs), 

host distinct communities that differ from their shallow-water reef counterparts. Multiple 

significant discoveries have resulted from these expeditions, including the collection of several 

previously undescribed species and the geographic range expansions of many known species 

(Wagner et al., 2011; Kane et al., 2014). Perhaps the most significant finding is that the reef fish 

assemblages of NWHI MCEs are dominated by Hawaiian endemic species, which comprise 

>90% of the numerical abundance and >70% of the total number of fish species on some 

mesophotic reefs (Kane et al., 2014). These findings indicate that MCEs in the NWHI represent 

important reservoirs of biodiversity, and further support the protection of the PMNM through the 

highest conservation standards available (Wagner et al., 2011; Kane et al., 2014).

Figure 2.2.1 Ecopath model of French Frigate Shoals showing the biomass and productivity of the area’s 

four trophic-level food web. Data from Polovina 1984; figure from Friedlander et al., 2009.

2.2.2 Projected Vulnerability to Climate Change

Climate change has significant implications for PMNM’s marine ecosystems, summarized in 

Table 2.2.1. The following sections identify what is known about likely impacts to the 

Monument’s pelagic ecosystems (Section 2.2.2.1), coral reef ecosystems (Section 2.2.2.2), and 

the endangered species associated with these systems (Section 2.2.2.3).
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

29

Table 2.2.1 Relative vulnerability of PMNM’s marine ecosystems to different climate change variables in the near term (by 2035) based on assessment by 

climate change experts gathered for a PMNM workshop in 2012. 

Ecosystem Increased sea 

temperature

Sea-level

rise

Ocean 

acidification

Change in 

currents

Change in 

storm tracks 

or intensity

Change in 

precipitation 

or weather

Key Vulnerabilities

 The abundance, distribution, and diversity of pelagic organisms 

is likely to shift with climate change

Pelagic

(openocean)

Moderate Low High Low Low Moderate

 Ocean acidification is likely to impact pelagic organisms, 

particularly plankton and larval life forms; effects are likely 

to vary among species 

 Changes in temperature and a possible decrease in wind are 

very likely to increase vertical stratification patterns and 

decrease oceanic productivity

 Overall biodiversity is likely to decline

 Specialist species with narrow environmental ranges are likely 

to be more vulnerable than generalist species.

 Overall loss in biodiversity is very likely as climate change and 

habitat loss impact algal, invertebrate, and fish communities

Coral reefs Very high Low Very high High Moderate Low  The frequency of acute damaging events from bleaching, 

disease, and storms are very likely to increase

 Ocean acidification is likely to impair corals’ ability to recover 

from acute events 

Submerged 

banks and 

seamounts

Low Low High High Low Low

 Acidification may change the composition of submerged banks 

and seamount communities

Confidence   

Low Medium High
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

30

2.2.2.1 Pelagic Ecosystems

The Monument’s pelagic ecosystems are likely to experience significant shifts due to 

climate change as a result of ocean acidification (Figure 2.2.2), and changes in 

temperature and winds that shift convergent zones, currents, and areas of upwelling. 

Ocean acidification has the potential to impact the growth and development of all pelagic 

organisms; although research so far suggests high variation in impacts between species. 

One of the most significant impacts from climate changes is likely to be in phytoplankton 

development, abundance, and distribution, with repercussions throughout the pelagic 

food web. Additionally, shifts in the distribution of a range of species creates the 

potential for mismatches between predators and the availability of prey, which may result 

in significant ecosystem impacts (Kingsford & Welch, 2007).

Analysis of past and current climatic changes around the NWHI provides further 

evidence of likely impacts, both positive and negative. For example, a North Pacific 

climate event between 1977-88 increased the depths at which deeper, nutrient-rich waters 

mixed with surface waters by 30-80%, as winter storm paths shifted south and wind 

speeds increased; this greater mixing increased nutrient availability and productivity in 

the NWHI during that time (Polovina & Haight, 1999; Polovina et al., 1994). More 

recently, Polovina et al. (2008) have demonstrated that oligotrophic waters (the least 

productive ocean waters containing less than 0.07 mg of chlorophyll/m3) are expanding 

in area throughout the North Pacific, a finding that is consistent with predictions that 

warming surface waters will increase vertical stratification, thereby decreasing nutrient 

availability at the surface, photic zone.

A 

Figure 2.2.2 How ocean acidification impacts biological calcification. As CO2 is absorbed by the atmosphere 

it bonds with sea water forming carbonic acid. This acid then releases a bicarbonate ion and a hydrogen 

ion. The hydrogen ion bonds with free carbonate ions in the water forming another bicarbonate ion. This 

free carbonate would otherwise be available to marine animals for making calcium carbonate shells and 

skeletons (reproduced from Ocean.org). 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

31

great deal is unknown about the adaptive capacity of pelagic ecosystems to climate 

change. The high generational turn-over of phytoplankton and zooplankton species at the 

base of the food web may provide hope for evolutionary adaptation. Larger organisms 

may be able to adapt to increased sea temperatures by moving to new locations, but will 

still be vulnerable to changes in prey-predator relationships. Overall decreases in 

biodiversity are likely as some species are unable to adapt to new conditions. The 

vulnerability of species that inhabit both pelagic and reef ecosystems, such as sharks, 

marine mammals, and larval organisms, is discussed below.

2.2.2.2 Coral Reef Ecosystems

“For me, the corals and the algae are the critical foundation. I think the native species are 

important, too, in terms of connecting with the people.”

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

This section summarizes the vulnerability of coral reef ecosystems by considering the impacts of 

climate variables on key ecosystem components: coral reefs, macroalgae, marine invertebrates, 

reef fishes, sharks, and marine mammals; Table 2.2.2 presents the section’s key findings.

Coral Reefs

While the Monument’s coral reef area is relatively small, it contributes disproportionately to the 

productivity of the NWHI’s marine ecosystems by providing habitat and food. The likely and 

severe impacts of climate change on coral reefs is well established in the scientific literature. In 

essence, degradation from bleaching, disease, and storm events is very likely to increase, while 

reefs’ ability to recover from these acute events and to keep up with rising sea-level will be 

compromised by ocean acidification (Hoegh-Guldberg, 2011; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; 

Hughes et al., 2003; Marshall & Schuttenberg, 2006; Pandolfi et al., 2011; Veron et al., 2009). 

Ocean acidification reduces the ability of corals to calcify their skeletons, making them more 

brittle and slower-growing. For example, De’ath et al. (2009) have reported a 14.2% decline of 

calcification in massive Porites since 1990 on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and hypothesize 

that, increasing temperature stress and a declining saturation state of seawater aragonite may be 

diminishing the ability of the GBR corals to deposit calcium carbonate. However, recent studies 

have provided hope that some corals may be able to adapt to bleaching events and acidification 

(Guest et al., 2012; McCulloch et al., 2012)

While calcification rates for NWHI corals have not been measured yet, anticipated climaterelated impacts from coral bleaching and disease have been documented. A severe mass 

bleaching event was documented in 2002 at the three most northern atolls ( Aeby et al., 2003; 

Kenyon & Brainard, 2006), followed by another significant event in the same area in 2004 

(Kenyon & Brainard, 2006). In 2010, a significant event was documented at Kure and Pearl and 

Hermes (Schuttenberg et al., 2011), catalyzing the development of a formal Bleaching & Disease 

Response Plan for PMNM (Maynard et al., 2012). In 2014, another mass bleaching event was 

recorded at in the NWHI, with ~90% of coral colonies being bleached on the east side of 

Lisianski Island (Couch pers. comm.). Disease surveys conducted over the same time period 

found that coral disease is widespread but is occurring at low levels. The exception is an 

outbreak of Acropora white syndrome (AWS), which is causing massive mortality of the table 

corals (Acropora cytherea) at French Frigate Shoals (FFS) (Aeby, 2006a, 2006b). AWS is 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

32

Table 2.2.2 Vulnerabilities of PMNM’s marine major taxonomic groups components to climate change 

variables.

Ecosystem 

Components Key Vulnerabilities

Cross-cutting

 An overall loss in biodiversity is very likely as some species are unable to adapt 

 Acidification is likely to impair calcification, reproduction and recruitment, thus impacting fishes, 

phytoplankton, corals, invertebrates, and calcareous algae

 Reef-dependent fish, invertebrates, monk seals, and sea turtles are likely to be particularly vulnerable as reef 

structure is lost to climate change

 Increased sea temperatures are likely to change abundances and distributions of species, including the increase 

of invasions by non-native species

 Warmer sea temperatures and changing circulation patterns are likely to produce mis-matches between linked 

events, such as breeding seasons and prey availability

 Changes in ocean circulation may transport larvae to unsuitable habitats. 

 Endemic species may have lower adaptive capacity than widely distributed species and are more likely to go 

extinct

 Species may maintain their preferred thermal range by moving deeper or poleward

 Climate change is likely to impact species of significance to Native Hawaiians, such as ‘opihi and culturally 

significant food fish that prey on crustaceans

Phytoplankton 

 Climate change is likely to reduce overall phytoplankton biomass and change the composition & distribution 

of species, with cascading effects to other ecosystems

 Warmer sea temperatures are likely to increase stratification, reducing nutrient availability in the photic zone 

and reducing phytoplankton biomass

 An overall loss in phytoplankton biodiversity is likely as some species are unable to adapt to new conditions

Macroalgae

 Climate change is likely to modify the species composition of algal communities, creating nonlinear cascading 

effects through the system 

 Climate change may favor weedier turf algae, which may benefit herbivorous species and influence a shift in 

the species composition at higher trophic levels

 Ocean acidification is likely to impair the growth of calcareous algae; these algae are a major source of sand 

production and are important for providing cues during coral settlement, consolidating reefs, and food sources 

for many species including culturally significant ones. Their loss will ultimately affect the availability of sand 

for NHWI beaches thus changing important nesting, breeding and basking habitats. 

Marine 

invertebrates

 Climate change is very likely to lead to shifts in the composition of invertebrates with substantial functional 

roles, as species respond differently to stress from temperature, acidification and changing circulation patterns. 

 Climate change is likely to impact species of significance to Native Hawaiians, such as ‘opihi and food fish

Reef fishes

 Changes in ocean temperature, acidification, circulation and habitat loss are likely to alter reef fish life 

histories, community structures and range distributions.

 Climate change is likely to favor generalist planktivores, small herbivores and rubble dwellers; reef-dependent 

fish will be most negatively impacted

 Reef fish recruitment will become more unpredictable, occurring as extreme pulse events of success or failure

Sharks & 

Cetaceans

 Sharks and cetaceans are primarily vulnerable to climate change through impacts on prey availability.

 Temperature and ocean circulation changes change is likely to alter overall range and migratory patterns

 Temperature may affect growth rates or physiological processes

 Species with more specialized diets and smaller ranges are very likely to have less adaptive capacity than 

generalist, far-ranging species

Confidence:   

Low Medium High
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

33

spreading across FFS with one affected site found in 2003, but by 2006 that number had 

increased to seven acroporid reefs. At one of the FFS outbreak sites, the Acropora cover dropped 

from 53% in 2004 to 27% in 2011 (Aeby et al., 2011; Aeby, 2006a). The differential 

susceptibility of NWHI corals to bleaching and disease will likely result in shifts in species 

composition as bleaching and disease become more common. 

Hoeke et al. (2011) modeled the impacts of predicted ocean temperatures and chemistry on 

NWHI coral reefs. Their results suggest that if corals can increase their threshold for heat stress 

by 0.1◦ C/decade, the area of shallow-water reefs will decline by 25-75% by 2100, and that reefs 

in the center to northern end of the Hawaiian chain may fare better, as more optimal temperatures 

promote their ability to recover relative to reefs toward the south of the chain. However, in the 

absence of adaptation (e18038 pg. 9):

model output suggests it is extremely unlikely that viable coral populations will exist in the shallow waters 

of the Hawaiian Archipelago in 2100. Ensemble averages of individual outcomes suggest precipitous 

declines in coral cover will likely begin in the northern region sometime between 2030 and 2050, while 

individual bleaching events are likely to be less severe in the south, leading to more steady decline over the 

entire century in this region.

A number of factors have been identified that may confer resilience to coral reefs from climate 

change impacts (West & Salm, 2003), some of which are present in PMNM. The Monument’s 

reefs can be expected to benefit substantially by the absence of fishing, coastal development, 

agriculture and other anthropogenic stressors (Schuttenberg & Marshall, 2008). Conversely, the 

Monument’s relatively low biodiversity and isolation from other reef areas that could supply 

larval replenishment would be expected to reduce the resilience of the PMNM’s reefs to climate 

change. 

Reefs across Papahānaumokuākea will experience climate change impacts differently, and several 

factors point toward French Frigate Shoals (FFS) as a particularly resilient area, which would 

benefit the atoll’s unique population of monk seals and sea turtle nesting and basking sites by 

providing coastal protection. FFS and Maro Reef harbor the greatest marine biodiversity of the 

NWHI chain, benefitting from larval input from Johnston Atoll (Grigg et al., 2008; Kobayashi, 

2006; Maragos et al., 2009); this greater diversity increases the possibility of various types of 

adaptation, which could include selection of thermally tolerant algal symbionts or taxonomic 

succession of more resistant or resilient genera (Baker et al. 2004; Grottoli et al., 2006). 

Additionally, Hoeke et al. (2011) hypothesize that FFS may find itself in the “sweet spot” of 

PMNM’s future temperature regime, enjoying warmer temperatures that enhance reef growth, 

while avoiding temperature extremes that result in mortality from mass bleaching. Kenyon et al. 

(2006) concur that overall FFS may be better able to cope with climate change based on the 

current species composition of corals: “the predominance of massive and encrusting Porites

...renders the reefs of FFS moderately resistant to the effects of bleaching with respect to 

structural architecture” (pg. 170). However, FFS resilience to coral bleaching may not extend to 

coral disease. Within the NWHI, Porites is the genus that harbors the greatest number of diseases 

(Vargas-Angel, pers. comm.), and the acroporid corals that contribute to FFS’s greater 

biodiversity are also particularly vulnerable to disease outbreaks and impacts (Aeby, pers. 

comm.).

The Monument’s mesophotic reefs are another area that may possibly benefit from future warmer 

temperatures. Rooney et al. (2010) hypothesize that the colder temperatures in the NWHI prevent 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

34

the more substantial growth of scleractinian corals and coralline algae that is seen in the MHI. 

New temperature regimes may enable better growth of these species, although their current cooler 

temperature habitats may leave them more exposed to acidification, resulting in negative impacts 

on their calcification rates. Additionally, there is a possibility these deeper reefs may provide a 

larval source for the recovery of adjacent shallow-reef areas in the future, although many 

questions remain about the ‘deep reef refugia hypothesis’ (Bongaerts et al., 2010), such as 

whether it could operate over ecologically relevant time scales or how it might influence areas 

that are currently dominated by genera that are restricted to shallow waters.

Macroalgae

NWHI reefs are largely algal-dominated and climate change is likely to alter the composition of 

algal species. Extrapolating analyses from the Great Barrier Reef, we can hypothesize that 

climate change will favor weedier turf algal species and most negatively impact calcareous algae, 

although the synergistic impacts of changes in temperature, UV, ocean circulation, storms, and 

acidification are difficult to untangle (Diaz-Pulido et al., 2007; Jokiel et al., 2008; Kuffner et al., 

2008). Changes in species composition could significantly alter the ecological functions provided 

by dominant species with cascading effects throughout ecosystems. For example, increases in 

turf algae would increase the overall biomass available at the base of the food web, creating a 

benefit for some herbivorous species and potentially influencing an overall shift in the relative 

species composition at higher trophic levels. 

Perhaps one of PMNM’s greatest vulnerabilities to climate change is from the impact of ocean 

acidification on crustose coralline algae (CCA). CCA are more vulnerable to increased acidity 

than corals, which means that their percent cover and survival will be reduced more quickly than 

most coral species. However, because CCA are the main settlement platforms for coral larvae, 

their demise may have larger impacts on coral survival than the increased acidification itself 

(Vroom, 2011). Additionally, calcareous algae are known to contribute to reef consolidation and 

sand production; these functions will be lost if calcareous algae are significantly reduced by 

ocean acidification, accelerating the loss of low-lying sandy atolls. 

The adaptive capacity of the algal communities that dominate the Monument’s coral reefs is 

expected to vary between species, with resulting shifts in community composition. More 

research is needed to understand how differential adaptive capacity will influence the future 

composition of PMNM’s algal reefs.

Marine Invertebrates

The greatest climate change threats to marine invertebrates are likely from changes in sea 

temperature, ocean circulation, and ocean acidification (Hutchings et al., 2007). Sea temperature 

influences the reproductive cycles of many marine invertebrates and changes in temperature

combined with changes in ocean circulation can result in mismatches between reproductive 

cycles and prey availability. Additionally, increased sea temperatures are expected to facilitate 

exotic species invasions, while changes in ocean circulation can result in transport of larvae to 

unsuitable habitats. The effects of ocean acidification are uncertain and species specific, but 

appear to pose a considerable threat to the ability of marine invertebrates to secrete a protective 

skeleton; Hutchings et al. (2007) hypothesize that (pg. 327):

Impaired skeletogenesis is expected to compromise survivorship of both planktonic and benthic life stages 

of coral reef invertebrates. The larval skeleton of gastropods, sea urchins and other benthic invertebrates 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

35

are particularly fragile and may not be produced under acidic conditions. This may result in complete 

recruitment failure of whole suites of benthic invertebrates.

These changes are likely to impact species of special significance to Native Hawaiians, such as 

‘opihi and culturally significant food fishes that feed on crustaceans, but further research is 

needed to examine the specific responses of these species. Overall, differential responses by 

marine invertebrates are likely to lead to shifts in current community compositions at the species 

level, and Hutchings et al. (2007) note that species dependent on coral reefs will be particularly 

vulnerable as reef structure is lost to climate change. Given the significant ecological roles 

marine invertebrates play within the Monument’s ecosystems, further research is warranted to 

better understand and predict the impact of climate change on these organisms and processes.

The ability of marine invertebrates to adapt to climate change is largely unknown. Some 

invertebrate species may be able to adapt to short-term temperature fluctuations by behavioral 

changes, such as burrowing deeper into sediments or moving deeper down the reef slope into 

colder waters. The short generational times and large population sizes of many invertebrate 

species may help facilitate evolutionary adaptation, and evidence from the fossil record suggests 

that some invertebrate species have been able to successfully respond to significant climate 

change in the past, while others did not (Hutchings et al., 2007). Whether marine invertebrates 

within the Monument are able to expand or change their ranges in response to rising sea 

temperatures is unknown, and will likely depend on how ocean circulation patterns and larval 

connectivity throughout the archipelago are altered.

Reef Fishes

Changes in temperature, ocean circulation, and climate change-related habitat loss, for example 

through coral bleaching, are the greatest drivers of change in reef fish populations (Munday et al., 

2008). Anticipated changes in the species composition of reef fish might be expected to have a 

significant impact on reef ecosystem processes, such as predation, competition, and herbivory. 

Cumulatively, climate change may alter reef fish population life histories, community structure, 

and range distributions, and is likely to result in an overall loss in biodiversity (Munday et al., 

2008).

As with many other species, the larval and reproductive stages of reef fish are expected to be 

more vulnerable to changes in climate than adult populations. Munday et al. (2008) identify how 

climate variables offer both benefits and risks to fish recruitment, hypothesizing that recruitment 

will become more unpredictable, occurring as extreme pulse events of success or failure. Small 

increases in temperature may accelerate larval growth and development, if food is available to 

sustain enhanced metabolic rates. This faster growth is expected to reduce time in the pelagic 

larval stage, increasing the chance larval fish survive this stage and recruit onto reefs. However, 

the availability of planktonic prey will also be influenced by climate variables, such as 

acidification and changes in ocean circulation, which may alter plankton distribution and 

biomass; as a result of these changes, it is unclear if the prey of larval fish will be available to 

adequately support faster larval development. Another factor that adds uncertainty to the impact 

of climate change on recruitment is temperature; changes may shift fish breeding timing and 

intervals, and large temperature increases could increase larval mortality. Additionally, 

acidification may affect larval development. 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

36

Based largely on predictions of increased sea temperatures, Munday et al. (2008) hypothesize a 

shift in reef fish toward smaller size, reduced longevity, and earlier maturation. Expectations of 

habitat degradation and the differential impacts of increased temperature and acidification on fish 

species are likely to result in shifts in community composition with generalist planktivores, small 

herbivores and rubble dwellers being the most likely to benefit from changing conditions; the 

flow-on effects of these changes to the ecological roles provided by current reef fish communities 

will in turn impact the composition of future coral and algal communities. 

Finally, Munday et al. (2008) hypothesize that species may exhibit opportunistic range changes to 

maintain preferred thermal environments. Such changes could result in an increase in the rate of 

invasion and settlement for species not currently present the NWHI as cool-water temperature 

barriers are removed. Additionally, the isolation of endemic species within the Monument 

creates a risk of extinction given limited options for range expansion. Munday et al. highlight 

this risk (2008, pg. 273):

species that already have small ranges near the limits of coral reef growth will experience further range 

contractions that would ultimately increase their risk of extinction from other impacts. Areas of high 

endemism associated with isolated island groups, such as the Hawaiian Islands, are likely to experience 

multiple extinctions as isolation restricts the potential for range shifts 

Fishes with greater temperature tolerances, shorter generational cycles, and larger ranges or 

greater ability to expand their ranges are more likely to adapt to changing climatic conditions 

(Munday et al., 2008). Interbreeding among populations as range expansion occurs, and 

temperature-driven decreases in age to reproductive maturity may provide some assistance in this 

evolution. However, more isolated populations, such as those in the NWHI, have lower levels of 

genetic connectivity to other populations, which greatly reduces the potential for local adaptation 

to increasing ocean temperature by transfer of favorable genotypes (Munday et al., 2008).

Sharks

Chondrichthyan fishes, such as sharks, are primarily vulnerable to climate change through 

impacts on prey availability. A review by Chin et al. ( 2010) notes that climate change impacts to 

coral reef and pelagic habitats may change or limit the availability of prey, such as teleost fishes, 

crustaceans, marine turtles, and marine mammals. Temperature change may also have some 

direct impacts on sharks, for example by increasing growth rates or physiological processes, 

which may be beneficial, or by altering the migratory patterns of some species. 

The mobility of many shark species is identified as a source of inherent adaptive capacity, 

although Chin et al. (2010, pg. 1948-9) caveat this hypothesis:

Mobility assumes that individuals will be able to locate, move to and establish viable populations in new 

areas and this assumption should be treated with caution. Alternative habitats may not be available...even 

if suitable refugia can be reached, they may be unavailable if competition or predation prevents the species 

from establishing a viable population.

Sharks with more specialized diets and smaller ranges are considered to have less adaptive 

capacity than generalist, far-ranging species. Supporting the adaptive capacity of sharks will be 

achieved most effectively by supporting the ecological processes that will sustain their prey as the 

climate changes, particularly working to maintain the ecosystems upon which prey species 

depend.
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

37

Marine Mammals

A review of climate change impacts on marine mammals suggests that the greatest impacts will 

result from changes in prey availability—as a result of changing temperature, ocean circulation 

patterns, and acidification (Lawler et al., 2007; Learmonth et al., 2006)—and loss of seal haul-out 

sites due to sea-level rise (Learmonth et al., 2006). Globally, the range of many cetaceans is 

likely to change as species migrate to maintain their preferred thermal habitat or follow the 

distribution of prey species with particular thermal requirements. Additionally, species with high 

dependence on coastal habitats could be negatively impacted by sea-level rise (Simmonds & 

Elliot, 2009).

A recent modeling study of climate change impacts on marine mammals globally suggests that 

impacts will be greatest for tropical species and identified “possible declines in marine mammal 

species richness at lower latitudes and increases at higher latitudes, assuming an intermediate 

IPCC climate change scenario” (Kaschner et al., 2011pg. e19653-7). In particular, the study’s 

authors found that pinniped biodiversity in tropical and temperate waters will decrease 

substantially, and they identified the Hawaiian monk seal as one of the species that will be most 

affected. Because of their heightened vulnerability to climate change, monk seals are discussed 

further in Section 2.2.2.3

Cetaceans found in the Monument are expected to benefit from the inherent adaptive capacity 

conferred by their high mobility, expansive range, and ability to learn about their environment 

(Harwood, 2001; Lawler et al., 2007). Globally, most management recommendations for 

supporting the adaptive capacity of marine mammals are not relevant to PMNM, although they 

may be for the MHI; these actions include: improving the management of terrestrial run-off to 

improve water quality and reduce toxic algal blooms, carefully managing tourism, and 

minimizing impacts from marine debris, fishing, and hunting (Lawler et al., 2007; Learmonth et 

al., 2006).

2.2.2.3 ESA Species of Particular Concern in the Context of Climate Change

The things people talk about are what they see up there. They talk about big fish 

and lots of sharks; those guys, I think, will do alright. They talk about sea birds, 

turtles, and monk seals; I think those guys are going to have a tougher time, so I 

think that will be a challenge for people.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

Complementing Papahānaumokuākea’s ecosystem-based approach to governance are additional 

species-specific mandates, such as the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection 

Act, which are described in the Monument’s Management Plan (PMNM, 2008b). Here Hawaiian 

monk seal and sea turtles are highlighted as species which are particularly vulnerable to climate 

change and strongly associated with Papahānaumokuākea. Key vulnerabilities to these species are 

summarized in Table 2.2.3.

Hawaiian Monk Seals

Hawaiian monk seal populations in the NWHI appear to be doing more poorly than those in the 

MHI (Baker & Johanos, 2004). In this regard, the Hawaiian monk seal is somewhat unique, 

because PMNM represents a refuge for a myriad of species, but not for the Hawaiian monk seal. 

In particular, Hawaiian monk seals are believed to be highly sensitive to climate change impacts 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

38

on the availability of their prey and haul-out sites. Currently, Hawaiian monk seal populations in 

the NWHI are believed to be constrained by prey availability, shark predation, marine debris, 

occasional male aggression, and possibly limited genetic diversity (Lowry et al., 2011). Climate 

change may further exacerbate prey limitations, as evidenced by similar declines in prey 

availability during past climate events (Baker et al. , 2007; Polovina et al., 1994; Baker et al., 

2012) and known negative impacts to monk seal prey from climate-related coral reef degradation. 

Loss of coastal habitats, particularly by inundation due to sea-level rise, are also likely to impact 

monk seals by reducing the quantity and quality of haul-out sites; past work on Kure found that 

shark predation on juvenile monk seals increased when preferred haul-out sites were unavailable 

(Lowry et al., 2011). Additionally, preliminary modeling suggests that climate change-related 

shifts in patterns of marine debris deposition may increase entanglement risks to monk seals 

(Donohue & Foley, 2007).

Based on current population declines, the inherent adaptive capacity of Hawaiian monk seals to 

climate change impacts is expected to be low; however, the recent growth in MHI seal numbers 

can be viewed as an increase in the species’ overall resilience to climate change, and should be 

supported through management measures that minimize disturbance to the seals in MHI haul-out 

areas. Broader actions that aim to understand and support the maintenance of ecosystem integrity 

in the face of climate change should benefit monk seals by addressing prey limitations, while 

specific actions, such as coral reef restoration may also help address this vulnerability. Further 

analysis of climate change impacts to monk seal haul-out sites and options for addressing the loss 

of these sites is needed (Strategy 2.3.3). 

Sea Turtles

Reviews of climate change impacts on sea turtles consider the greatest threat to come from loss of 

nesting beaches, with potential impacts also resulting from more extreme weather events, changes 

in ocean circulation patterns, increased UV light, and ocean acidification (Hamann et al., 2007; 

Hawkes et al., 2009; Poloczanska et al., 2009). 

A significant focus of current research is the direct and indirect impact of these expected changes 

on turtle reproduction, notably changes in available nesting beaches, nest temperatures, and 

breeding intervals. The most abundant marine turtle species in the NWHI is the Hawaiian green 

turtle. Historical research has revealed that over 80% of major nesting populations of this species 

have been extirpated since the arrival of humans in Hawaii (Kittinger et al., 2013). Additionally, 

nesting areas for the Hawaiian green sea turtle were historically distributed throughout the 

Hawaiian Archipelago (Kittinger et al., 2013), but today over 90% of adult female green turtles in 

Hawaiʻi migrate to French Frigate Shoals from throughout the archipelago between May and 

September to breed and nest (Balazs et al., 1992). This current concentration of nesting sites in a 

relatively small area may leave the population particularly vulnerable to extreme events that 

could damage or eliminate these sites (Kittinger et al., 2013). There is some evidence, however, 

that green turtles may be expanding their nesting range by starting new nesting colonies in the 

MHI (Dutton et al., 2008; Frey et al., 2013).

Research by Tiwari et al. (2010) suggests that the current Hawaiian turtle population size is well 

below the carrying capacity of nesting beaches at FFS; for example, their modeling suggests that 

the mean 390 females nesting annually at East Island over the past decade represents 1.3-2% of 

the females that could nest at carrying capacity, and that a projected 30% loss in East Island 

beach habitat due to sea-level rise (see Baker et al., 2006) would still result in excess nesting 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

39

capacity. However, turtle nesting habitat loss at FFS is likely to exceed 30% (see Section 

2.3.2.1), and other scientists have questioned the assumption that all East Island habitat is suitable 

for nesting (Kyle Van Houtan, pers. comm.) with the implication that real losses in future 

available nesting area may be much greater.

Globally, nest temperature is known to impact hatchling sex, size, health, and fitness, and nests 

that are too warm result in hatchlings that are smaller, have decreased swimming ability, and have 

higher rates of scale and morphological abnormalities (Hamann et al., 2007; Poloczanska et al., 

2009). Additionally, nests with temperatures that exceed a threshold, called the pivotal 

incubation temperature, produce more females; as a result, there is a concern that a warming 

climate may feminize turtle populations causing unknown impacts on overall population numbers 

(Poloczanska et al., 2009). However, Hawaiian green turtle nesting beaches on FFS are relatively 

cooler than most green turtle nesting beaches globally, and recent experimental studies at FFS 

have shown that these cooler temperatures produce unbiased or male-biased sex ratios (Layton, 

2012). Additional work is needed to predict how sand temperatures at FFS may change in the 

future, and whether there is reason for concern about the impacts of future warmer temperatures 

on green turtle hatchling fitness and sex-ratios. 

Table 2.2.3 Vulnerabilities of PMNM’s marine ESA species of concern to climate change variables.

Ecosystem 

Components Key Vulnerabilities

Monk Seals 

 Sea-level rise, compounded by loss of reef habitat, is very likely to reduce the 

quantity and quality of monk seal haul-out sites, negatively impacting the population

 Projected changes in climate, combined with loss of reef habitat, are very likely to 

limit monk seal prey, exacerbating a known cause of decline in the NWHI population

Green 

Sea Turtles

 Sea-level rise, storm surge, increased storm frequency and intensity are likely to 

reduce sea turtle nesting areas on FFS; however, it is unclear when or if reduced 

habitat area will constrain the overall population

 Increased sand temperature may feminize Hawaiʻi’s green sea turtle population and 

may reduce hatchling size and fitness

 Climate change impacts on green sea turtle foraging are unknown, but could 

potentially have significant positive or negative effects on breeding intervals and the 

overall turtle population 

 Warmer temperatures may exacerbate threats from fibropapillomatosis tumors

Confidence:   

Low Medium High

The impact of climate change on green turtle foraging at different life stages is uncertain. Adult 

green sea turtles are herbivorous, and it is unclear whether their diets of macroalgae and seagrass 

will benefit or suffer from climate change. Post-hatchling and juvenile sea turtles are believed to 

have an omnivorous and opportunistic diet as they are transported by large-scale oceanic currents 

for nearly a decade. How changes in ocean currents, chemistry, and temperature may impact this 

early life stage in terms of diet and transport are unknown. If the impact of climate change on 

food availability and quality is positive, then combined with increased temperatures, turtles may 

grow faster, reach maturity sooner, and breed earlier and more often. If the impact of climate 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

40

change on turtle foraging is negative, the green turtle population would be reduced and breeding 

frequency would be also be negatively affected. 

New information indicates that hawksbill sea turtles, while rare, also occur within the NWHI 

(Van Houtan et al., 2012), although nesting has not been documented there recently. Hawksbills 

utilize a diverse diet that includes sponges (King, pers. comm.). Impacts to forage species are not 

well known, although climate change related impacts to coral reefs, the hawksbill’s primary 

foraging and resting habitat, are more well-studied, as described in Section 2.2.2.2. 

Within the Hawaiian context, another consideration is the impact of climate change on turtle 

diseases, particularly fibropapillomatosis tumors, which are currently identified as a significant 

threat to green turtles in the Recovery Plan for Pacific populations (NMFS & US F&W, 1998). 

In general, increased temperature can result in increased disease, but whether this is true for 

fibropapillomatosis is unknown.

Researchers have suggested a number of ways sea turtles may be able to adapt to climate change, 

but most remain speculative. The most likely strategy would be for turtles to change the timing 

of their nesting to cooler times of the year. There is evidence that turtles in Florida are breeding 

an average of ten days earlier in response to warmer temperatures (Weishampel et al., 2004); 

however, turtles traveling long distances across a latitudinal gradient, such as those in Hawaiʻi, 

may experience temperature increases differently at varying locations, complicating the 

mechanisms by which reproductive migrations might be shifted based on thermal cues (Hamann 

et al., 2007). Another temporal change may be an extension of the breeding season. Turtles may 

also be able to select new nesting beaches, a practice which has been documented, although it 

appears to be uncommon (Hawkes et al., 2009). A further uncertainty is the extent to which 

turtles may be able to shift their diet in response to climate change impacts on their habitat and 

food sources. Adult green turtles have high site fidelity, seldom shifting to new areas, and there 

is evidence that their intestinal micro flora are specialized, thereby reducing their ability to adapt 

foraging strategies (Hawkes et al., 2009). 

With greater understanding, managers may be able to help maintain the quality of Hawaiian green 

turtle nesting beaches by planting native vegetation to provide shade and reduce nest 

temperatures, a strategy which has been implemented in the Galapagos (Hansen & Hoffman, 

2011). Such a strategy should be based on an understanding of how sand temperatures are 

changing, and whether temperature thresholds that cause the negative impacts or feminization are 

being reached. Maintaining key sand characteristics for turtle nesting in FFS should also be 

considered in any decisions to stabilize beaches for monk seals or shore birds.

2.2.3 Key Implications

Expert analysis of existing evidence suggests that the key implications of climate change for 

PMNM’s marine ecosystems include:

• Coral reef ecosystems in PMNM are very likely to change as a result of acidification and 

warmer temperatures [high confidence]. While warmer sea temperatures may benefit 

some of the Monument’s reefs, degradation due to reduced calcification and increased 

frequency of bleaching and disease events is likely [moderate confidence].
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

41

• Areas of low productivity in the open ocean are likely to expand as warmer surface water 

temperatures increase vertical stratification in the water column, and nutrients from 

cooler, deeper waters are less available in the surface, photic zone [high confidence].

• Ocean acidification is very likely to reduce the ability of some corals, calcareous algae, 

phytoplankton, and invertebrates to calcify their shells and skeletons [high confidence]. 

Similarly, acidification may have profound impacts on native macroalgal species [low 

confidence]. 

• An overall loss in biological diversity is likely as some species are unable to adapt to 

altered habitat structure, temperatures, and circulation patterns [high confidence].

• Changes in ocean productivity due to increased stratification may cascade through the 

food web, negatively impacting predator species [moderate confidence].

• Endangered Hawaiian monk seals are likely to be adversely affected by climate change as 

their breeding sites and haul-out sites are inundated [high confidence] and the abundance 

of their prey is reduced [moderate confidence].

• Threatened Hawaiian sea turtle populations may be reduced as major nesting areas at FFS 

are inundated [moderate confidence].

• Climate change may exacerbate existing threats from invasive species, marine debris, and 

disease [low confidence].

Overall, existing evidence suggests that climate change is very likely to significantly alter 

PMNM’s marine ecosystems over the coming century through ocean acidification and increased 

sea surface temperatures. These environmental changes are likely to disrupt key ecological 

processes, such as calcification and nutrient cycling, resulting in reduced oceanic productivity and 

significant changes to the Monument’s coral reef ecosystems. The Monument’s endemic species 

are particularly vulnerable to these changes with little prospect of moving to other suitable areas 

given the area’s remoteness. The rate and extent of these changes is will be influenced by the 

level of future CO2 emissions, as well as the degree to which local management actions are 

implemented to facilitate adaptation. Figure 2.2.2 illustrates expert opinion that higher rates of 

future CO2 emissions will significantly reduce the condition and spatial extent of coral reefs 

compared to the situation if CO2 emissions are reduced. Higher CO2 emissions will also 

accelerate losses in productivity and rises in sea levels that will negatively impact PMNM’s 

threatened and endangered marine species. Section 3 presents the local management strategies 

needed to help facilitate climate change adaptation.
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

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Figure 2.2.2 Projected changes in PMNM’s marine ecosystems between today (left) and 2100 under high RCP 8.5 (top, right) and low RCP 2.6 (bottom, 

right) greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

43

2.3 Island and Atoll Ecosystems

I’m especially concerned about the fact that we do not know how fast sea level rise is 

actually going to happen because other things caused by climate change are actually 

happening faster than predicted.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

While PMNM’s land area is small in contrast to its vast ocean spaces, both ecosystems share high 

endemism and exceptional biodiversity. This section introduces the Monument’s island and atoll 

ecosystems (Section 2.3.1), identifies their projected vulnerabilities to climate change (Section 

2.3.2), and summarizes the issues anticipated to be of greatest concern to these ecosystems and 

associated species (Section 2.3.3).

2.3.1 Papahānaumokuākea’s Island and Atoll Ecosystems

PMNM’s land area consists of ten island and atoll groups (Figure 2.3.1). The easternmost and 

youngest islands, Nihoa and Mokumanamana, are small, steep rocky islands, and the Gardner 

Pinnacles are rocky outcroppings. The remaining six areas are highly eroded, low sand islands 

and atolls with extensive sandy beaches and coastal strands; two of these latter islands, Laysan 

and Lisianski, are secondarily elevated. The islands support a low diversity of plants, mostly 

herbaceous species and small shrubs and trees. PMNM’s four true atolls—Kure, Midway, Pearl 

and Hermes, FFS—have fringing coral reefs and interior lagoons that are open to the ocean. 

Laysan Island has a closed lagoon, which contains a hypersaline lake, the largest natural lake in 

the Hawaiian Islands. Historically, Midway, Kure, and French Frigate Shoals were operated as 

military installations and consequently have been highly altered. All have current or former 

runways and buildings. Midway, with the longest history of human occupation, also supports a 

non-native ironwood forest (Casuarina equisetifolia). Midway Naval Air Station closed in 1996, 

and the Coast Guard Loran Stations on Kure and French Frigate Shoals were closed in 1991 and 

1979, respectively. 

Within these habitats, Papahānaumokuākea hosts significant levels of biodiversity and high levels 

of endemism. The Monument is the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, hosting over 

5.5 million breeding adult seabirds (Keller et al., 2009). It provides nesting habitat for 25 species 

that are protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act, including the Short Tailed Albatross, 

which is also listed under the Endangered Species Act (Table 2.3.1). Ninety five percent of the 

world’s Laysan and Black-footed Albatrosses nest in the NWHI, as do globally significant 

colonies of Bonin Petrels and Tristam’s Storm-petrels. Some of the largest colonies of White 

Terns and Red-tailed Tropicbirds in the Central Pacific are found in PMNM, and numerous 

shorebird species overwinter or transit through PMNM during their migrations to the north and 

south. Endemic birds found in PMNM include remarkably isolated species such as the Nihoa 

Finch, Nihoa Millerbird, Laysan Finch, and Laysan Duck, one of the world’s rarest ducks; of 

these four species, the Laysan Finch is listed as vulnerable by IUCN and the other three are listed 

as critically endangered.

Important examples of endemism extend beyond the Monument’s birds and include 145 species 

of endemic arthropods and six species of endemic plants, with all six plant species listed under 

the U.S. Endangered Species Act. As a general rule, endemic species are considered more 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

44

vulnerable to climate change than generalist species, a concern enhanced on small islands and 

atolls by the limited options for relocation with changing conditions. 

Figure 2.3.1 Ranging from steep, rocky islands in the east to low-lying sandy islands and atolls, PMNM’s ten 

island and atoll groups host the largest assemblage of tropical seabirds in the world (photos courtesy of the 

USFWS).
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

45

Table 2.3.1 Breeding bird species found within Papahānaumokuākea (reproduced from Krause et al. in Reynolds et al. (2012), USGS Open-File Report 

2012–1182).
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

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2.3.2 Projected Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

Climate change has significant implications for the area, functions, and structure of PMNM’s 

island and atoll ecosystems. The following sections identify what is known about habitat loss to 

sea-level rise (Section 2.3.2.1), likely impacts to coastal and terrestrial ecosystems (Section 

2.3.2.2), and likely impacts to managed species associated with these systems (Section 2.3.2.3). 

The concluding section (2.3.3) recaps the issues experts assessed to be of greatest concern.

2.3.2.1 Estimates of Habitat Loss to Sea-Level Rise

One of the greatest climate-related threats to Papahānaumokuākea is the loss of island and atoll 

area to sea-level rise and interacting processes. This section relies on the most recent studies, 

which provide preliminary estimates of the likely extent of these losses, the timescales under 

which they may occur, and the types of habitats most likely to be impacted.

Globally, sea-level is projected to rise by 1-1.5 m by 2100 (IPCC, 2007b). Recent modeling

(Baker et al., 2006; Krause et al., 2012) efforts have estimated the impacts of sea-level rise 

ranging from 0.5-2.0 m across habitats on many of PMNM’s islands using passive inundation 

modeling. Although passive inundation or “bathtub” models consider the impacts of sea-level 

rise without including other compounding factors, such as associated changes in wave behavior, 

erosion, or accretion, in the absence of bathymetric and other data, these models provide a useful 

first-order assessment of the implications of different sea-level rise scenarios. However, it is 

important to note that lack of consideration of erosion and wave behavior is a major gap in the 

ability of such models to accurately predict future sea-level rise scenarios, given that shoreline 

morphologies are likely to change dramatically due to erosion. 

Reynolds et al. (2012) emphasize that passive inundation models underestimate the extent of 

habitat losses from inundation, and note the need for additional data and modeling studies to more 

realistically project habitat loss under different climate change scenarios. One component of this 

same project was the development inundation projections by habitat type on Laysan Island using 

five different models and sea-level rise scenarios (Berkowitz et al., 2012); Table 2.3.2). This 

comparison confirmed that passive inundation models systematically underestimate areas of 

inundation compared to models that incorporate wave forcing and rise in groundwater, and that 

the underestimation by passive models is greater for higher sea- level rise scenarios because 

increased water levels reduce bottom friction and increase wave run-up. 

From their study on Laysan Island, one of the higher-standing low islands, the authors note (p. 

114): that for a given SLR value, wave-driven water levels generally added approximately 1 m of 

inundation depth ... to passive inundation surfaces during large-wave events. Thus, our wave-driven 

inundation models essentially forecasted comparable levels of inundation nearly a century earlier than 

passive models.

Interpreting Krause et al.’s (2012) estimates of passive inundation (Table 2.3.3) in light of 

Berkowitz et al.’s (2012) comparative studies identifies several patterns. First, the difference 

between 1 and 2 m of sea-level rise substantially increases the total percent of land inundated 

from 4% to 26% (Krause et al., 2012). In their dynamic wave-driven models, Berkowitz et al. 

(2012) found a similar tipping point at 1 m. Krause et al.’s results project that six of the eleven 

islands modeled will lose 85 to 100% of their total area under 2 m of sea-level rise; as expected, 

islands with higher maximum elevations were more resilient to passive inundation by sea-level 

rise. For all 11 islands modeled, Krause et al. (2012) report that most of the area lost comes from 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

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Table 2.3.2. Projections of habitat inundation at Laysan Island under 1.0 and 2.0 m sea-level rise based on three different inundation models (from 

Berkowitz et al. (2012).

Table 2.3.3. Projections of habitat inundation under 1.0 and 2.0 m sea-level rise based on passive inundation models (from Krause et al. (2012).
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

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Table 2.3.3. continued
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

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Table 2.3.3. continued

areas that are currently beach and coastal strand habitats. Additionally, they project significant 

losses to avian habitats that are currently limited within the NWHI, particularly shrub and trees. 

A more recent study included Midway, and the models were supported by data from two 

inundation events in 2011 (Storlazzi et al. 2013).

The modeling efforts presented here represent an important step forward in monitoring the 

elevation and habitat types of low-lying islands in PMNM. Building on this work with further 

data on bathymetry (Strategy 1.1.4), substrate characteristics, and water currents will allow more 

comprehensive modeling that can improve planning for beach stabilization and restoration efforts 

(Strategy 2.2.1). Additionally, a baseline study of historical shoreline erosion trends is needed in 

order to improve modeling of sea-level rise impacts due to erosion and wave processes.

2.3.2.2 Vulnerabilities of Island Habitats to Climate Change

Terrestrial habitats throughout the Monument are likely to be altered by increased temperature 

and CO2 concentrations, an increased incidence of severe storms, and changes in precipitation 

patterns, winds, cloud cover, and humidity (Table 2.3.4). Changes in these environmental 

variables are very likely to alter the physical and chemical environments for PMNM’s terrestrial 

flora. For example, reduced precipitation is likely to change the moisture content of soil, and sealevel rise combined with reduced rainfall is likely to shrink the freshwater lenses that provide the 

atolls and islands with critical sources of freshwater. Because species vary individually in the 

way they tolerate drought, derive benefit from greater CO2 concentrations, and respond to other 

physical and environmental changes, projected shifts in climate are likely to alter the species 

composition of PMNM’s plant communities. Such changes in flora are in turn likely to lead to 

shifts in the composition of invertebrate and avifaunal assemblages that rely on the existing plant 

communities. 

On low-lying islands and atolls, rising sea level and storms may also drive changes in land cover 

patterns. For example, higher sea level is expected to result in more frequent wave overwash, 

which. can cause die-offs of salt intolerant vegetation leading to the encroachment of beach into 

areas that are currently vegetated avian breeding habitats. Such plant die-offs can also lead to soil 

instability that further accelerates erosion (Davidson-Arnott, 2005; Krause et al., 2012; LaFever 

et al., 2007). 
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50

Generally, it is believed that shifts associated with climate change may be an advantage to 

generalist invasive species (Turner & Batianoff, 2007), which can degrade habitat features that 

are important to PMNM’s managed species. However, the remoteness of the NWHI may limit 

the introduction of such invasive species, conferring PMNM with resilience to this risk compared 

to other places with greater exposure to tourism and global commerce. Even so, this potential 

risk, warrants heighted monitoring of invasive species, and as appropriate, eradication (Strategy 

2.1.2). 

The likely impacts of climate change on key ecosystem functions and structures are described 

here for the major habitat types found within Papahānaumokuākea:

Beaches and Coastal Strands

Sea-level rise, warmer air temperatures, and changes in currents and storm patterns all pose risks 

to the spatial extent and qualities of PMNM’s beach and coastal strand habitats. In the shortterm, the climate-related degradation of coral reefs may contribute additional sand to the 

Monument’s beaches, potentially increasing their size (Smithers et al., 2007). The availability of 

nearby offshore sand could also potentially continue to replenish beach habitats in the 

Monument’s highly dynamic nearshore environment. However, over a longer time span 

Papahānaumokuākea is likely to lose substantial beach area as sea-level rise and storm surge 

inundate beaches, while the loss of coral reef and calcareous algae (see Section 2.2) also reduce 

beach replenishment. Additionally, warmer air temperatures are likely to change beach 

characteristics, potentially leaving them less hospitable for nesting sea turtles (see Section 2.2.2). 

Mudflats and Wetlands

Compared to beaches, PMNM’s wetlands and mudflats are likely to be more resilient to 

inundation from sea-level rise and storm surge, at least under shorter-term, moderate sea-level 

rise scenarios. Whether these ecosystems shift in location in response to new conditions will be 

related to the coastal areas adjacent to them, and to broader coastal dynamics that are poorly 

understood. Changes in species composition are likely. 

Shrublands and Woodlands

Shrublands are an important and limited avifauna habitat in the NWHI (Reynolds et al., 2012). 

These ecosystems are likely to experience community shifts in response to increased salt-water 

overwash; changing weather patterns, such as more drought and extreme weather events; 

reductions in the size of the freshwater lens; and increased CO2. An increased establishment of 

invasive species is also a possibility. It is likely that habitat features important to key species will 

be compromised or lost due to such changes.

Freshwater habitats and the Hypersaline Lake on Laysan 

The Monument’s few freshwater habitats and the hypersaline lake on Laysan are both vulnerable

to changes in rainfall and increased air temperatures and evaporation, although increased rainfall 

could benefit freshwater habitats. Past storm surge events have inundated the hypersaline lake, 

altering its chemistry and disrupting prey for Laysan ducks (Born pers. comm.; Athens et al. 

2007). Interventions may be possible to facilitate some adaptation of the Monument’s freshwater 

and lake habitats, and monitoring will be required to diagnose and plan appropriate actions, such 

as removal of invasive species. 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

51

Table 2.3.4 Relative vulnerability of PMNM’s island & atoll ecosystems to different climate change variables.

Ecosystem Increased air 

temperature

Sea-level

rise

Increased 

atmospheric CO2

Change in ocean 

circulation

Change in storm 

tracks or intensity

Change in 

precipitation or 

weather

Key Vulnerabilities

 In the short-term reef degradation may increase sand, 

increasing beach area

Beaches

throughout High Very high Low Moderate High Low

 Ultimately, sea-level rise and storm surge will inundate 

beaches, while loss of reefs and calcareous algae will 

reduce sand 

replenishment; combined these impacts 

Coastal Strand

Laysan, Midway, 

Lisianski, Kure, Pearl 

& Hermes

High High High Moderate High High

are very likely to significantly reduce the area of beach 

habitat 

 Sand temperatures are very likely to rise 

with warmer sea & air temperatures

Wetlands & Mudflats

Laysan, Midway & Kure

High High Moderate Low Moderate High

 Changes in species composition are very likely due to 

increases in temperature and CO2, along with changes in 

precipitation

 Inundation of low-lying habitats is likely

Shrublands & 

Woodlands

High Low High Low Moderate High

 Changes in species community composition are very 

likely due to rises in temperature and CO2, and changes 

in precipitation

 Invasive species may increase

Freshwater Habitats

Mokumanamana, High High Moderate Low High Very high

 Sea-level rise and changes in precipitation, temperature, 

and storms are likely to have significant impacts, 

particularly on smaller, 

Nihoa, & Laysan, 

natural; Midway &

Kure, created

atolls that have smaller freshwater lenses

Hypersaline Lake

Laysan High High Low Low High High  Storm surge is likely to inundate the lake, changing its 

salinity and affecting the food sources of Laysan ducks

 Changes in weather and air temperature may change 

salinity and temperature

Confidence:   

Low Medium High
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

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Some of the climate-driven changes to these habitats can be reduced through targeted 

management actions (Strategies 2.2.1 and 2.2.4). Others changes will negatively impact managed 

species that rely on them, discussed in the next section.

2.3.2.3 Vulnerabilities of Managed Species to Climate Change

Climate change will have severe ramifications for managed species on PMNM’s islands and 

atolls, both directly and indirectly (Table 2.3.5). Potential direct impacts include increased storm 

frequency and intensity, increased temperatures, and reduced availability of freshwater. Species 

may be indirectly affected through climate-driven changes in the quality and availability of 

preferred habitats and prey, as well as increased incidence of disease. Currently, almost nothing 

is known about how these projected changes will impact the Monument’s 145 endemic arthropod 

species or its six plant species that are listed under the Endangered Species Act, and filling these 

knowledge gaps is a priority research activity (Strategies 1.4.1 and 1.4.4). Experts have greater 

confidence about the general impacts to PMNM’s bird populations based on studies conducted 

within the Monument and other areas; however, more specific species and area-based 

assessments are needed to inform management (Strategy 2.3.1).

Papahānaumokuākea’s bird populations are most likely to be impacted by climate change through 

effects on their nesting habitats, prey, storm events, and through changes in weather. As an island 

ecosystem, PMNM’s land area is limited, and climate change is very likely to further reduce 

habitat availability, particularly of beaches, coastal scrub, and shrubland habitats (Section 

2.3.2.1). For this reason, Krause et al. (2012) hypothesize that avifauna species which nest in a 

broad range of habitat types, do not nest within coastal strand habitat, and have broad global 

distributions will be the most resilient to climate change, Sooty Terns and Brown Noddies being 

examples of such species. Conversely, species with specialized habitat requirements and limited 

ranges will be most vulnerable. Krause et al. (2012) cite as examples burrow-nesting species that 

are limited to specific soil types and nesting depths (e.g., Bonin Petrel, Tristram’s Storm-petrel, 

and Wedge-tailed Shearwater), and the Laysan Finch, which is restricted to specific habitats on 

Laysan Island and Pearl and Hermes Atoll and incapable of unaided inter-atoll dispersal. Another 

example is specialized shrub-nesting species, such as the Red-footed Booby, that may be 

vulnerable to further loss of already limited shrub habitat in the Monument (Krause et al. 2012). 

Habitat loss may also increase the density of nests within remaining areas, potentially leading to 

crowding problems or disease. Among the islands most likely to lose significant areas of nesting 

habitat Baker et al. (2006) highlight the particular risk to populations on French Frigate Shoals 

and Pearl and Hermes, where virtually all land is less than 2 m above sea level. Additionally, 

Krause et al. (2012) project substantial habitat loss at Midway Atoll and risks to Laysan Island 

from extreme events. In addition, migratory shorebirds that overwinter in the NWHI, or use the 

islands to rest and feed during their migrations, are also vulnerable to climate-induced changes in 

habitat area and food resources. 

Climate change may also significantly impact Papahānaumokuākea’s avifauna through impacts to 

their prey species. On the Great Barrier Reef, which has more land area than PMNM, Congdon et 

al. (2007) concluded that seabirds’ greatest vulnerability to climate change was from impacts to 

their food resources. Changes in sea surface temperature, circulation, and upwelling can directly 

change the abundance and distribution of prey, thereby reducing seabird foraging opportunities 

and increasing foraging distances. These changes can be combined or exacerbated by climateinduced changes in the behavior of pelagic predatory fish species, particularly tuna and mackerel, 

which seabirds rely on to drive smaller fish species to the surface. Additionally, to the extent that 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

53

these seabird species prey on reef fish, they may be impacted by the expected degradation of reef 

ecosystems due to climate change, as described previously. 

Table 2.3.5 Vulnerabilities of PMNM’s island & atoll ESA species of concern to climate change variables.

Ecosystem 

Components Key Vulnerabilities

Seabirds

 Habitat loss due to sea-level rise and storm surge is very likely to reduce the size of 

PMNM’s breeding bird populations; impacts will vary among species. 

 The quantity and quality of nesting habitat is likely to be reduced as climate change 

impacts PMNM’s island ecosystems (e.g., nests may become hotter, freshwater may 

become more scare, invasive species may increase, and plant species composition is 

likely to change); reduced quantity and quality of nests is likely to increase chick 

mortality

 Warmer temperatures may increase the incidence of disease in chicks and adults

 Climate change impacts on seabird prey are very likely to negatively impact multiple 

seabird species, particularly through chick provisioning failure; impacts will vary 

between species and geographic areas

 Changes in sea surface temperature, circulation, and upwelling may change the 

abundance and distribution of seabird prey species, reducing foraging opportunities 

 Climate-induced changes in the abundance, distribution, or behavior of pelagic 

predatory fish species may negatively impact seabird foraging opportunities, because 

they rely on these fish species, particularly tuna and other large predators, to drive 

seabird prey into the surface waters

 Seabird species that occasionally prey on reef-associated fish, such as Black Noddies, 

White Terns, and Brown Boobies, may be negatively impacted by the expected 

climate-related degradation of PMNM’s coral reef ecosystems

Endangered 

Land Birds

 Habitat loss due to sea-level rise and storm surge is likely to reduce populations of 

PMNM’s endangered land bird populations; impacts will vary among species 

 The quantity and quality of nesting habitat is likely to be reduced as climate change 

impacts PMNM’s island ecosystems; e.g., nests may become hotter, freshwater may 

become more scarce, vegetation stature may change, and invasive species may 

increase

 Warmer temperatures may increase incidence of parasites and disease in chicks and 

adults

 The availability of land bird prey species, particularly arthropods, may change with 

shifts in habitat types and extent, and vegetative community species composition

Confidence:   

Low Medium High

Based on field observations and a review of the impacts of past climatic events on reproductive 

success, Condon et al. (2007) propose that the impacts of climate change on prey will be seen a 

series of catastrophic declines in seabirds rather than in a gradual drop in population numbers. 

They argue that there are age-related thresholds that determine how long chicks can go without 

parental provisioning, and that as these thresholds are surpassed, nesting success drops steeply. 

Evidence for albatross in the NWHI may suggest a more graduated approach to declines, but 

supports the idea that increased foraging effort can have reproductive costs. A tagging study of 

Laysan and Black-footed Albatrosses from Tern Island by Kappes et al. (2010) found that while 

albatrosses demonstrate flexibility in foraging strategies, this ability to adapt to climatic 

variability came with reproductive consequences. In particular, for the Laysan Albatross, average 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

54

annual body mass changes during foraging were positively correlated with annual reproductive 

success and negatively related to maximum distance traveled. During the same period, this 

relationship was not seen in the Black-footed Albatross, whose different foraging strategy seems 

to benefit from a more stable food source and whose overall reproductive success was higher than 

that of its Laysan counterpart. 

Within Papahānaumokuākea, the type of tipping-point changes that Condon et al. (2007) 

hypothesize have resulted primarily from acute storm and wave events. Past events have caused 

inundation of nesting areas, as well as contamination of fresh-water and lake resources, and have 

resulted in significant loss of adults or reproductive failures; these include the loss of over 30,000 

Black-footed Albatross chicks and eggs—or over 56% of the total nests at Kure, Midway, and 

Laysan—and over 254,000 Laysan Albatross chicks and eggs—or approximately 41% of the 

nests at the same sites--in 2011/2012 (Flint, pers. comm.); the loss of Laysan Teal nests in 2011; 

and nesting failure of Laysan Finches in 1986 (Morin, 1992). With climate projections indicating 

the potential for more intense, and possibly more frequent, future storms, the incidence of this 

type of reproductive failure may increase. For this reason, Berkowitz et al. (2012) suggested that 

avifauna species whose incubation and chick-rearing periods coincide with seasonal peaks in 

wave height are more vulnerable to climate change-related inundation, in particular the albatross 

species, Bonin Petrels, and Tristam’s Storm-petrels. 

Management actions have been successful in ameliorating habitat limitations on Hawaiian bird 

populations (Duffy, 2010), and offer a response to some climate-related impacts to avifauna 

habitats (Strategy 2.3.1). However, the scope for a rapid response to acute storm and wave events 

is more limited due to the remote location of the breeding sites PMNM, and management 

responses to climate impacts on avifauna prey species are limited and indirect at best (Strategy 

2.3.5).

2.3.3 Key Implications

Expert analysis of existing evidence suggests that the key implications of climate change for 

PMNM’s island ecosystems include:

• It is very likely that PMNM’s low-lying atolls will be increasingly subjected to wave 

overwash and inundation within the next 50-100 years [high confidence]

• Beach and coastal strand habitats are very likely to be lost as a result of sea-level rise, 

storm inundation, and erosion, with significant implications for endangered species that 

rely on these habitats for breeding sites, including monk seals, sea turtles, and seabirds 

[high confidence].

• Inland waters, including both freshwater seeps and the hypersaline lake on Laysan, are 

likely to be degraded by changes in timing and amount of precipitation, compromising 

critical habitats for a range of endemic and protected species [moderate confidence]. 

• Papahānaumokuākea’s globally important bird populations are at risk from the loss and 

degradation of habitat, changes in prey availability, and direct impacts from changes in 

environmental conditions [moderate confidence].

• Climate change impacts on Papahānaumokuākea’s endemic plant and arthropod species 

are likely, but major information gaps on these species prevent an adequate vulnerability 

assessment at this time [moderate confidence].
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

55

Figure 2.3.1 Projected changes in PMNM’s island ecosystems between today (left) and 2100 under high RCP 8.5 (top, right) and low RCP 2.6 (bottom, 

right) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. In comparison to today, in the future invasive species may increase, native species and habitats will be 

reduced, low atolls will be inundated, and freshwater habitats may be lost.
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

56

Overall, existing evidence suggests that climate change may dramatically alter PMNM’s island 

and atoll terrestrial ecosystems over the coming century by substantially shrinking available land 

area. Inundation of currently emergent land areas, changes in ecosystem composition, alteration 

of environmental conditions, and reductions in the availability of freshwater are likely to impact 

the managed species that have evolved to rely on existing habitats. The Monument’s endemic 

species are particularly vulnerable to these changes with little prospect of moving to other 

suitable areas, given the islands’ small size and remoteness. The rate and extent of these changes 

will be influenced by the level of future CO2 emissions, as well as the degree to which local 

management actions are implemented to facilitate adaptation. Figure 2.3.1 illustrates expert 

opinion that under future scenarios with higher rates of CO2 emission (RCP 8.5), in the result will 

be greater losses of land area and managed species, as well as increases in invasive species, in 

comparison to the situation under lower emission CO2 scenarios (RCP 2.6). Section 3 presents 

the local management strategies needed to facilitate adaptation to climate change.

2.4 Cultural, Historical, and Heritage Resources

If we're talking about relative values, as climate change starts impacting more 

and more places, then from a relative perspective, the value of the Monument 

will go up compared to less protected areas; it will become more sacred. At the 

same time, in an absolute sense, values will be lost.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

While Papahānaumokuākea is formally recognized as a place of cultural and heritage 

significance, little work has been done to investigate the means and extent to which these 

resources may be affected by climate change. The situation in Papahānaumokuākea reflects 

discussions globally, in which cultural and non-material impacts from climate change are less 

considered than those with material economic costs (Adger et al., 2011). This section describes 

the Monument’s cultural and heritage resources and values (Section 2.4.1), and considers how 

these resources may be impacted by climate change and the capacity of stakeholder groups to 

adapt to these changes (Section 2.4.2). The section concludes by summarizing the key 

implications of these anticipated impacts (Section 2.4.3).

2.4.1 Cultural and Heritage Resources Associated with Papahānaumokuākea

Tangible culture is the counterpart of culture which is tangible or touchable, whereas 

intangible culture includes songs, music, drama, skills, crafts, and the other parts of 

culture that can be recorded but cannot be touched and interacted with, without a vehicle 

for the culture. 

- Wikipedia entry for “Intangible Cultural Resources”

Papahānaumokuākea is a sacred and ancestral home for Native Hawaiians; a unique historical 

seascape with sites of archeological significance; a remote area offering outstanding opportunities 

as an exemplar site for science and management; and a legacy, and responsibility, for all people 

as reflected in its designation as a World Heritage site. In developing this vulnerability 

assessment, workshop participants found it useful to distinguish between tangible cultural and 

heritage resources, and the intangible social values that are associated with them. Tangible 

resources have a physical presence or a particular tangible characteristic that is valued by a group 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

57

within society. Intangible cultural and heritage resources are spiritual, religious, intellectual, or 

emotional experiences or perceptions associated with PMNM that contribute to human wellbeing. The following sections explore in greater depth the meaning of PMNM’s tangible and 

intangible resources.

2.4.1.1 Tangible Resources

Papahānaumokuākea’s tangible resources include natural resources as well as archaeological and 

historical sites. Many of these physical resources are vulnerable to climate change and they are 

the foundation for most of the intangible cultural resources described in Section 2.4.1.2. 

Natural Resources Are Cultural Resources

We hope Papahānaumokuākea’s [World Heritage] inscription will help ... 

underscore that for so many indigenous peoples, nature and culture are one.

– ‘Aulani Wilhelm, former PMNM Superintendent

The natural resources described in Sections 2.2 and 2.3 are also cultural resources for Native 

Hawaiians. Like other indigenous and Pacific cultures, Native Hawaiians understand they are 

interconnected with their environment. As such, the plants, animals, and islands of 

Papahānaumokuākea are part of Native Hawaiians themselves, and impacts to these resources 

simultaneously impact them. More broadly, the weather, wind, and oceanic currents around 

PMNM are integral to Native Hawaiian traditional ecological knowledge and wayfinding, and in 

this regard might also be considered tangible cultural resources. 

Archeological & Historical Sites

The archaeological sites and artifacts exist nowhere else 

in the world, so if we lose them they’re gone.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

The NWHI have a rich history of human exploration and use dating back many centuries (Figure 

2.4.1). The Monument contains the material legacy of this historical use, and with it, the 

opportunity to more fully understand human experiences of the past, and the way these human 

interactions with Papahānaumokuākea have influenced the Monument’s physical and ecological 

condition today (PMNM, 2008a, 2011a, 2011b). Nihoa and Mokumanamana contain 89 and 52 

identified Native Hawaiian archaeological sites respectively; sites that are recognized as being 

unique both in their prehistoric content and in the extent to which they are undisturbed. Both 

islands are listed on the National Register of Historic Places. The legacy of the region’s military 

history is centered on Midway Atoll, which is designated as a National Memorial and contains six 

structures designated as National Historic Landmarks. The military and seafaring history of the 

Monument is further evidenced by its 127 marine archaeological sites, 60 of which are known 

shipwrecks, with the remaining 67 consisting of aircraft losses (PMNM, 2011b; Speulda-Drews, 

2010).
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58

2.4.1.2 Intangible Resources

Intangible Cultural Heritage means the practices, representations, expressions, 

knowledge, skills – as well as the instruments, objects, artifacts and cultural spaces 

associated therewith – that communities, groups and, in some cases, individuals 

recognize as part of their cultural heritage. This intangible cultural heritage, transmitted 

from generation to generation, is constantly recreated by communities and groups in 

response to their environment, their interaction with nature and their history, and 

provides them with a sense of identity and continuity, thus promoting respect for cultural 

diversity and human creativity.

- 2003 Convention for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage

A workshop involving representation from specialists in PMNM management, conservation 

science, social science and Native Hawaiian culture identified four categories of intangible 

resources associated with Papahānaumokuākea: universal values, Native Hawaiian cultural 

heritage, Western heritage, and knowledge derived from PMNM’s opportunity to serve as an 

exemplar site for science and management. It is key to note that Native Hawaiian cultural 

heritage is a broad category, and this plan highlights those aspects that are most relevant to 

supporting people’s connection to the place. These intangible resources are the result of human 

experiences or perceptions of Papahānaumokuākea, and they can contribute a sense of place and 

well-being for key constituencies and society at large.

Universal Values

Covering a vast area in one of the world’s most isolated archipelagos, PMNM encompasses a 

significant expanse of low-lying islands and atolls, predator-dominated coral reef ecosystems, and 

marine and terrestrial flora and fauna that show significant patterns of enhanced speciation with 

numerous endemic and endangered species. It is a unique seascape, rich in ecological, geological 

and cultural heritage.

- PMNM World Heritage Application

The NWHI’s designations as a National Monument and World Heritage Site recognize that this 

region is valued far beyond its boundaries, and is part of a legacy for all humanity. As a unique, 

remote area that has abundant and well-managed resources, the existence of PMNM ensures that 

a greater range of the world’s natural and cultural diversity is protected. In turn, this offers 

humanity an increased sense of well-being through the knowledge that PMNM’s resources 

remain intact. The universal values that are recognized as contributing to this global heritage are 

further described in the Monument’s World Heritage Application.

Native Hawaiian Cultural Heritage

This place offers an amazing opportunity to Native Hawaiians to, in a sense, go back in 

time and see something their ancestors saw as closely as possible to what it was on the 

Main Hawaiian Islands. 

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey
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59

Table 2.4.1 Guiding principles for considering Native 

Hawaiian Cultural Resources in the management of 

PMNM, quoted from The Native Hawaiian Plan for 

PMNM (in prep.).

1. All natural resources are cultural resources.

2. Reciprocity is fundamental to the sustainability of 

human relationships with the world around us.

3. Hawaiian language is fundamental to Hawaiian 

knowledge; and Hawaiian knowledge is fundamental 

to understanding, utilizing, and protecting Hawaiian 

cultural resources.

4. Diversity in Hawaiian cultural perspective, 

knowledge, and tradition is important and should be 

nurtured.

5. Hawaiian inquiry methods utilize all senses and are 

often interpreted through a mix of intellectual, 

emotional, and spiritual functions.

6. Important factors that support rigor in Hawaiian 

inquiry and cultural practice are time (both specific 

time and the long-term duration of time), place 

(specific place that aligns with broader purpose), 

and observer (his/her familial and knowledge 

genealogies, the levels of skill and knowledge s/he 

has attained, and his/her intentions) are important 

factors in Hawaiian inquiry and cultural practice.

7. Mastery in a cultural practice is indicative of one’s 

suitability to access PMNM for the purposes of 

perpetuating said practice.

8. Human resources directly impact capacity to manage 

cultural resources.

9. The cultural skills and knowledge of a resource 

manager (and the proficiency with which he/she 

applies them) directly impacts the natural/cultural 

resources for which he/she is responsible.

The islands that stretch across 

Papahānaumokuākea are important to 

the culture and identity of Native 

Hawaiians through a variety of rich and 

complex relationships. For every 

tangible cultural resource, there are 

links to a wide variety of intangible 

resources that include values and 

experiences (Table 2.4.1). For 

example, the uprights on 

Mokumanamana are a physical 

expression of a cultural practice in 

which chiefs secured the spiritual 

power (mana) to rule properly. These 

relationships are highly interconnected, 

and it is difficult—perhaps artificial—

to identify them separately. 

Papahānaumokuākea is a sacred 

landscape for Native Hawaiians that 

provides a genealogical connection to 

their ancestral environment, which can 

foster self-understanding. This 

connection is supported by Hawaiian 

cosmology, traditional knowledge, and 

a long history of navigational, spiritual, 

and other uses that continue today. 

Further work is needed to understand 

how different groups within the 

Hawaiian community value 

Papahānaumokuākea, and how these 

values may be impacted by climate 

change.

Maritime Heritage and Historic Resources 

The fascinating history of recent human activity in the NWHI including scientific exploitation, 

military operations and conservation initiatives (Wiener & Wagner, 2013) creates an opportunity 

for people from a range of backgrounds to reconnect with aspects of their own history and with 

this unique place. The sailors, soldiers, scientists, entrepreneurs, and laborers who worked in the 

NWHI over the last several centuries came from a broad range of geographic, cultural, and 

intellectual backgrounds. PMNM’s heritage values flow from the ability to reconstruct and share 

these histories. The historical sites and artifacts left behind from these activities (see Section 

2.4.1.1) offer one window for linking people to these aspects of the region’s history, as do oral 

and written accounts of past activities. 
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60

An Exemplar Site for Science and Management

The Monument is part of the broader Hawaiian Archipelago that stretches from Hawaii Island in 

the MHI past Kure Atoll. The inherent scientific opportunity offered by this system was 

investigated and described through the collaboratively-developed Hawaiian Archipelago Marine 

Ecosystem Research (HAMER) plan (PIFSC, 2008, p. 1): 

The entire archipelago thus reflects a combination of geologic processes coupled with an 

associated marine ecosystem succession, including substantial speciation in isolation of 

neighboring ecosystems. Add to this the comparatively recent occupation of the Main Hawaiian 

Islands (MHI) by human beings and you have in effect a natural laboratory where one portion is 

subject to anthropogenic influences and the rest is relatively pristine. This affords a unique 

opportunity to discern the human influence in the marine ecosystem across the archipelago. Few 

regions on the planet have the isolation, spatial structure, endemism, and research history that 

are needed to evaluate ecosystem dynamics and function at this scale. 

As the most northern and pristine part of this system, the Monument is uniquely placed to provide 

answers to key science and management questions of great value. For example, comparative 

research and modeling will be able to suggest the extent to which human use in the MHI has 

altered ecosystem function and structure, and thereby help inform MHI management that aims to 

support ecosystem recovery and resilience. Similar research should be able to suggest the extent 

to which reducing the impacts from local resource use may confer ecological resilience to climate 

change. Notably, the high latitude of the Monument’s northernmost atolls may mean they are

some of the first reef systems globally to experience changing ocean chemistry, providing early 

indications of broader changes to come. In this regard, climate chance science and management 

conducted in PMNM has an essential role both in a regional and global context.

Figure 2.4.1.2 Timeline of human interactions with the NWHI. Different eras of interaction are shown 

above a timeline with significant events in Hawaiian history (developed by Gleason and Kittinger based 

on M. W. Beckwith (2007) & Kittinger et al. (2011); reproduced with permission from PMNM 2011).
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

61

2.4.2 Projected Vulnerability to Climate Change

While there is a body of evidence to draw from in hypothesizing climate change impacts to 

PMNM’s natural resources (Sections 2.2 and 2.3), research about climate change impacts on its 

cultural and heritage resources and values (Section 2.4.1) is sparse. The following sections 

consider the impacts of climate change on the Monument’s tangible cultural and heritage 

resources (Section 2.4.2.1), and evaluate the available evidence regarding climate change impacts 

to PMNM’s intangible values and the adaptive capacity of people likely to be affected.

2.4.2.1 Projected Climate Change Impacts to Tangible Cultural and Heritage Resources

The opportunity for cultural practices or cultural learning of those areas hasn’t been that 

extensive, or not as extensive as it could be. Climate change could potentially remove, 

damage, or destroy many of those sites before they have the chance to be better 

understood. Looking at it from the archaeological or cultural standpoint, it may move up 

in priority for research, or for practitioners to access those islands and resources and 

learn from them what they can, before climate change has an adverse impact on them.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

PMNM’s tangible cultural and heritage resources include the natural resources discussed in the 

previous sections, and sites and artifacts of importance to Native Hawaiian culture, military 

history, and Western exploration and exploitation, which are considered next. Many of the 

known Native Hawaiian archeological sites are located on elevated grounds on Nihoa and 

Mokumanamana. This position will protect these sites from sea-level rise and storm surge, but 

they may be vulnerable to more frequent or intense storms and rains; as a precaution, monitoring 

could be implemented to detect if they are suffering increased structural erosion. Some Native 

Hawaiians have expressed concern that sea-level rise may uncover or submerge undiscovered 

archaeological sites, for example ancestral bones (iwi kupuna). Degradation of these artifacts and 

sacred sites would constitute a loss of cultural knowledge and connection with Hawaiian 

ancestors, and therefore negatively impacts Hawaiian well-being. Given this risk, it would be 

preferable to accelerate work that could identify such sites (Strategies 1.5.1 and 2.4.1).

The vulnerability of historic structures and maritime heritage sites to climate change has largely 

not been assessed. Historic structures on Midway, particularly World War II era fortifications 

along the shoreline, may be vulnerable to sea-level rise or storms, and shipwrecks may be 

vulnerable to storms or, potentially, ocean acidification. In other contexts, environmental 

degradation, such as acid rain, is known to have impacted archaeological sites (Nord et al., 2005). 

Further work is needed to evaluate potential impacts and prioritize conservation efforts 

(Strategies 1.5.1 and 2.4.1).

2.4.2.2 Projected Climate Change Impacts to Intangible Cultural and Heritage Values

The impacts of climate change to the specific types of cultural and heritage values associated with 

Papahānaumokuākea have not been studied within the Monument, and have received limited 

attention globally (Adger et al., 2011). Generally speaking, the legitimacy of cultural, scientific, 

and existence values for healthy ecosystems, such as those described in Section 2.4.1.2, are 

widely recognized, but often difficult to describe or quantify (MEA, 2003). A number of studies 

have evaluated methods for estimating potential monetary losses in order to better understand the 

types of economic damages that might result from varying climate change scenarios (e.g., 

Balmford et al., 2011; Tol, 2002; Turner & Daily, 2008). For example, the existence value of a 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

62

remote area, like Papahānaumokuākea, can be inferred from peoples’ willingness to make 

payments that maintain varied ecosystem characteristics. 

Perhaps more relevant are studies from medicine, law, and policy that analyze physical and 

emotional dislocation in terms of their implications for health, human rights, and damage 

assessment tribunals (e.g., Adger et al., 2011; Barnett, 2005; Hess et al., 2008; Kirsch, 2001; UN, 

2009). For example, in their review of climate change and place in the American Journal of 

Preventative Medicine, Hess et al. assert that, “events that fundamentally alter the ecology of a 

given place disrupt people’s attachment to place and identity, precipitating culture loss, even if 

inhabitants are not physically displaced” (2008, p. 475). The relationship between environmental 

degradation and culture loss is examined in legal and anthropological terms by Kirsch (2001), 

who observes that culture loss may occur through impacts to traditional knowledge, subsistence 

production, and attachment to place, but that counter-arguments exist which assert that 

indigenous cultures, specifically those in the Pacific Islands, are highly adapted to respond to 

environmental change, and that while cultures may change, they will not be lost.

There is broad acceptance that people form attachments to special places, and feel loss when 

those attachments are broken. Some experts agree that place attachment is stronger for 

indigenous communities (Kirsch, 2001). Work examining the impacts of climate change on 

indigenous communities takes its starting point, almost exclusively, from impacts to 

environmental conditions that affect access to food, water, and shelter; in these studies, impacts to 

traditional knowledge and culture flow from changes to subsistence resource use (e.g., Barnett, 

2005; Berkes et al., 2000; Bridges & McClatchey, 2009; Turner & Clifton, 2009; UN, 2009). In 

contrast, Native Hawaiian cultural values for Papahānaumokuākea are not based on subsistence 

use. 

Thus while there are useful parallels between existing research and the key social values that are 

relevant to the Monument, important differences exist that leave significant gaps in our 

understanding of how, and to what extent, climate change may impact the Monument’s cultural 

and heritage values for different stakeholder groups. Because the current state of knowledge is 

inconclusive, a series of working hypotheses about how social values associated with 

Papahānaumokuākea may be vulnerable to climate change (Tables 2.4.2) are discussed below.

Universal Values

Because it is a remote, unique, and beautiful place, people apply a natural value 

to it, regardless of their culture. This value would be negatively affected by 

climate change, as people tend to give up on things if they think they’re going to 

disappear.

If we're talking about relative values, as climate change starts impacting more 

and more places then, from a relative perspective, the value of the Monument 

will go up compared to less protected areas; it will become more sacred. At the 

same time, in an absolute sense, values will be lost.

- Respondents, PMNM Climate Change Survey

The universal value for PMNM’s unique ecological and cultural environment may be perceived 

in either an absolute or relative sense. From an absolute perspective, we anticipate PMNM will 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

63

lose species and low-lying atolls and that these losses will constitute a loss in well-being for all 

people who value their existence. Additionally, changes may result in detachment from 

Papahānaumokuākea as people protect themselves from these losses (Agyeman et al., 2009).

The relative perspective on change in PMNM is more complicated. In comparison to other 

places, PMNM’s uninhabited and highly managed context means it will continue to be protected 

from direct anthropogenic impacts, and that its ecosystems will have the best chance of adapting 

to new conditions. At the same time, however, PMNM’s ecosystems and species are more 

vulnerable to climate change than those found in many other places. For example, the 

Monument’s high levels of endemism and remoteness leave it particularly vulnerable to climate 

change. Additionally, the NWHI still provide habitat for species that have disappeared from other 

areas, so the Monument has more to lose. 

Overall, PMNM’s strong management will remain among the most protective within a global 

context; therefore, to the extent that PMNM’s management eliminates direct anthropogenic stress, 

people’s value for knowing that there are remote places left to be wild and untouched may be 

protected. However, if climate change results in high levels of extinctions that reduce the 

uniqueness of the NWHI, the Monument’s universal values may be similarly reduced. Thus, 

while the ways in which climate change may impact universal values are unknown, our overall 

hypothesis is that this value will be negatively impacted by climate change. The best way to 

protect these values is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby reducing the rate and extent of 

climate change impacts going forward. 

Native Hawaiian Cultural Heritage

Access to the NWHI allows Hawaiians to make connections with the land, the 

ocean, the fish, the sharks, the monk seals – and the spirits and our ancestors 

that are still there. The Monument region is not strictly a scientific laboratory; 

it’s a place that has its own life force.

– William Aila, PMNM (2008a), pg. 23

As noted earlier, intangible resources constitute a very broad category that includes values, which 

in the context of this plan are one of the most relevant ways to understanding the connections 

between natural and cultural resources, as well as between people and the place. Specific to the 

Native Hawaiian community, Table 2.4.1 describes the ways in which they value 

Papahānaumokuākea. These values can be grouped under three headings: 1) the area’s 

cosmological significance, 2) its role in facilitating a sense of continuity with ancestors and all 

life; and, 3) its role in Native Hawaiian traditional ecological knowledge. These values vary in 

the extent to which they rely on a direct physical experience of PMNM versus a grounding in 

cultural perceptions and beliefs that do not require first-hand experience with the Monument. 

They also vary in the ways they may be impacted by climate change and the extent to which 

Native Hawaiians can adapt to these potential impacts without a loss to their well-being. These 

three types of values are explored below.

Cosmological Significance

We hypothesize that the importance of Papahānaumokuākea as a sacred place in Hawaiian 

spiritual cosmology will be unaffected by climate change because this status comes from the 

importance of the Monument’s atolls and islands in Hawaiian oral traditions and geological 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

64

Table 2.4.1 Inter-related Native Hawaiian values for Papahānaumokuākea illustrated by quotes from the 

Monument’s World Heritage Application (2008).

Value Illustrative Quote page

Cosmological 

Significance

Papahānaumokuākea, as an associative cultural landscape, represents core 

elements of Native Hawaiian cosmology and tradition. The islands 

northwest of the Tropic of Cancer are believed to lie within the region of 

primordial darkness from which life originates and to which it returns.

6

Continuity

Pristine: Papahānaumokuākea is an expansive Hawaiian natural and 

cultural seascape, encompassing both land and sea, in which these 

relationships are vibrant and largely unfettered by human development. It is 

an immense associative cultural seascape – a Hawaiian place where man is, 

as in the Kumulipo, the little brother of the land and sea. And it is a place 

where Hawaiians can go to immerse themselves in this foundational 

understanding, ensuring the continuity of the generational bond and 

commitment to this sacred place.

22

Archaeological Sites: Papahānaumokuākea’s remarkable archaeology and 

significant ritual sites (heiau) bear exceptional testimony to the shared 

historical origins of all Polynesian societies, and to the growth and 

expression of a culture that evolved from the last and most difficult wave of 

cross-Pacific Polynesian migration.

6

Genealogy: Many oral traditions say that Native Hawaiians are 

genealogically related not only to the living creatures that make up the land 

and ocean ecosystems, but to the islands and atolls themselves. 

21

Continuity: Biologists speak of Papahānaumokuākea’s ecosystem, 

dominated by apex predators, as a rare benchmark for an intact marine 

system. Native Hawaiians experience this as a natural environment that 

hews to ancestral behaviors, rhythms, and proportions, where the ecological 

and spiritual links have not been frayed.

22

Platform for Spiritual Learning & Empowerment: natural encounters 

can often be considered hō‘ailona, natural signs communicated by ancestors 

and gods who manifest themselves in nature. These signs occur most clearly 

in a place like Papahānaumokuākea, where nature has not been subjugated.

22

Traditional 

Knowledge

Wayfinding: As in generations past, the contemporary apprentice 

Hawaiian wayfinder’s first open-ocean training ground takes them from the 

MHI into Papahānaumokuākea, the Kūpuna Islands. A Native Hawaiian 

saying, “Nānā i ke kumu,” means “Look to the source.” It contains a subtle 

double meaning: while kumu means source, it also means teacher. This 

saying offers insight into the important role that kūpuna, who are also 

teachers, play in traditional Hawaiian society. Hawaiians are exhorted to 

turn to their kūpuna for knowledge, and to in turn respect and care for those 

kūpuna, as we must all learn from Papahānaumokuākea and respect and 

care for this unique place.

23

Cultural Learning: The foundation of this culture is a nuanced awareness 

of, and responsive intimacy with, the patterns and processes of their specific 

natural environment.

20

Path to Meaning: Today, we praise Papahānaumokuākea’s high rates of 

marine endemism in a world where ecological diversity is imperiled. For 

Native Hawaiians, each endemic species occupies an induplicable place in 

the spiritual as well as physical universe. It is not only a member of the 

family of nature, but a path to meaning and understanding. When a species 

is lost, that understanding is lost forever.

22
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65

Table 2.4.2 Impacts and opportunities of climate change on PMNM’s cultural, historical and heritage 

resources.

Resources Key Impacts & Opportunities

Native 

Hawaiian 

Cultural 

Resources

 More frequent or intense storms could damage archeological and sacred sites on 

Nihoa and Mokumanamana; intensified rainfall and sea-level rise could uncover or 

submerge ancestral bones (iwi kupuna)

 Ecological extinctions and degradation resulting from climate change may 

increasingly impact Native Hawaiians in their ability to care for their ancestors

 Ecological extinctions and degradation resulting from climate change are likely to 

reduce the opportunities for Native Hawaiians to experience kinship with all things

 Ocean acidification and other changes in climate variables and marine ecosystems are 

likely to impact species of significance to Native Hawaiians

 Changes in weather, currents, ecosystems, and species may reduce the ability of 

Native Hawaiians to experience their ancestors or to experience the NWHI as their 

ancestors did

 Changes in weather, currents, ecosystems, and species, may erode the accuracy and 

meaningfulness of centuries of accumulated traditional knowledge

 Warmer temperatures may create strain in outdoor ceremonies and protocols

 The importance of Papahānaumokuākea as a sacred place in Hawaiian cosmology is 

unlikely to be affected by climate change, because this status comes from Hawaiian 

oral traditions and geological history, which will not be altered by changing 

environmental conditions

Archaeologica

l Sites & 

Artifacts

 Heritage sites, particularly on Midway, may be vulnerable to increased storm 

intensity and storm surge

 Underwater sites may be at risk from ocean acidification, changing current patterns, 

and more intense storms

 More frequent or intense storms could damage Native Hawaiian archeological sites 

on Nihoa and Mokumanamana; intensified rainfall and sea-level rise could uncover or 

submerge ancestral bones (iwi kupuna)

Exemplar Site 

for Science & 

Management

 Climate change confers an important research opportunity to better understand coral 

reef and island ecosystems, as well as the effectiveness of local management actions 

in conferring ecological resilience to climate change impacts

 PMNM has the potential to be an international exemplar for island and protected area 

management, within the context of climate change, by drawing on both Native 

Hawaiian and Western scientific traditions in an integrated way

World 

Heritage 

Values

 Species extinctions and the inundation of low-lying atolls due to climate change are 

likely to diminish the well-being of people who value their existence

 PMNM’s uninhabited context and strong management protections may continue to 

protect people’s value for knowing that there are remote places left to be wild and 

untouched in spite of climate-driven degradation

 Climate-driven extinctions that reduce the uniqueness of the NWHI will also reduce 

the Monument’s World Heritage values for nature

Confidence:   

Low Medium High
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

66

history, which will not be affected by future environmental conditions. We believe that this value 

will be highly resistant to climate change.

Continuity

I think for many Native Hawaiians, maybe 99.5% have never been up there. But for those 

that have, they've had a tremendous experience in connecting with their cultural past, 

spiritually, physically etc. and there is tremendous potential. But how do you convey that 

to the remainder of the population who, more than likely, will never have the chance to 

go up there in their lifetime? It’s the stories and the understanding of the place that’s 

captured. I think if you relayed or memorialized it somewhere, then if climate change 

ends up taking away a lot of that, then at least there is some record of the understanding 

of the places that are lost. I think the more that we understand about the place—the 

stories of those places—and that they're recorded, even though the place may be gone at 

some point in time, the legacy will remain and that can be of value.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

The attachment Native Hawaiians’ have for Papahānaumokuākea, in part, results from the 

connection or continuity this place provides to Hawaiian ancestors and to all life. The ways in 

which this value of continuity may be vulnerable to climate change is uncertain and requires 

further research (Strategy 1.5.2); several scenarios are plausible. 

Native Hawaiian culture understands all life to be interconnected, and PMNM’s pristine 

environment facilitates the opportunity for Hawaiians’ to experience kinship with all living things 

and the atolls that stretch across Papahānaumokuākea. The anticipated impacts of climate change 

on ecosystems and species potentially impair Hawaiians’ ability to experience kinship, as the 

number of species available for interaction is reduced, and thus some opportunities to learn from 

species are also lost. 

Papahānaumokuākea is also valued by Native Hawaiians as a way to connect with their ancestors. 

This continuity occurs through Hawaiians’ ability to experience the area as their ancestors did, as 

well as by being able to perceive their ancestors as manifestations of nature. To the extent that 

climate change-induced shifts in ecology, weather, winds, and currents disrupt this continuity, 

Hawaiian well-being may be negatively impacted. Alternatively, this sense of ancestral 

continuity may remain intact.

Papahānaumokuākea has experienced many shifts in the absence of climate change over the past 

1,000 years during which Hawaiians have voyaged, worshiped, observed, and accessed these 

islands.

Native Hawaiian continuity with their ancestors also involves a sense of kuleana (responsibility) 

to care for Papahānaumokuākea as a sacred place. It is unknown if the strong management 

protections operating in PMNM would enable Hawaiians to feel they were meeting this 

responsibility, or if the loss of species and land area would create a sense of disempowerment for 

Hawaiians. 
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67

Traditional Ecological Knowledge

The positive aspects would be that Native Hawaiians could potentially provide input into 

how we manage this new fluctuation in relation to how they managed previous 

fluctuations, maybe not of this caliber, but nonetheless they've had to deal with a much 

greater range of generational change than Hawaiians from the mainland.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

Like other indigenous cultures, Hawaiian’s direct and intimate understanding of the Hawaiian 

Islands exists as a body of traditional ecological knowledge that is a highly valued element of 

Hawaiian culture. It is unknown if climate change impacts on PMNM’s environment and 

ecology will erode the efficacy of Hawaiian traditional knowledge, creating a concurrent loss of 

Hawaiian culture, or whether Hawaiians will have the opportunity to adequately engage with 

changing conditions in PMNM, thus being able to maintain their ecological knowledge 

accordingly. While both of these scenarios are explored here, we believe it is more likely that 

Hawaiians will be able to adapt their traditional ecological knowledge, assuming their ability to 

access PMNM is facilitated as part of ongoing management efforts. 

It is well recognized that traditional ecological knowledge is a living part of indigenous cultures, 

typically tied in to day-to-day experience of local environments for subsistence and spiritual use. 

The risk climate change poses to Hawaiian traditional knowledge is that changing conditions 

could possibly create a disconnect between tangible conditions and a more long-standing 

understanding of them. For example, as climate change alters weather patterns, ocean currents, 

ecosystems, and species community composition, traditional knowledge and weather forecasting 

may become less meaningful, or even misleading. Changing weather conditions may also prove 

disruptive to long-held cultural practices; for example, warmer temperatures may increase the 

strain of ceremonies and protocols performed outdoors, particularly those held at the auspicious 

time when the sun is directly overhead. 

While this disconnection is a possibility, we believe it is more likely that Native Hawaiians will 

adapt to changing conditions, integrating new observations into traditional knowledge, and 

further reconnecting with important cultural insights as they seek to make sense of evolving 

circumstances. We hypothesize that voyaging, as one of the primary cultural training activities in 

the Monument, may be affected by potential changes in weather, currents and storm patterns, but 

will not be displaced by these changes. Additionally, climate change may stimulate further 

reconnection with Native Hawaiian traditional knowledge, as a context for understanding the 

range of natural variability observed by Hawaiians over centuries (see Turner & Clifton, 2009). 

Ellemor (2003) documented a cultural reconnection in response to degradation of the BarmahMillewa Forest and floodplain in southeast Australia, finding that a need to understand the 

system’s requirements fostered an interest in the area’s ecological, genealogical, and cultural 

significance. We hypothesize that climate change may serve as a similar catalyst for expanding 

engagement with Native Hawaiian traditional ecological knowledge if institutional arrangements 

and opportunities for access to the Monument are appropriately expanded (Strategy 2.4.2).

Heritage Values

Section 2.4.1.2 describes how the use of the NWHI for exploration, exploitation, military 

operations, and conservation has left a material legacy of these activities within the Monument 

that offers the opportunity for a wide range of people to gain an insight into their past. To the 

extent that climate change degrades or eliminates these material links through storms, sea-level 
Chapter 2: Vulnerability Assessment

68

rise or changing ocean chemistry, access to that direct connection of the past will be lost. The 

risk of this loss can be mitigated by inventorying, documenting, and, as appropriate, conserving 

key sites and artifacts to best retain the insights they offer (Strategy 2.4.1)

An Exemplar Site for Science & Management

Climate change is a scientific opportunity; it's not necessarily something we 

would have wanted, but there's certainly a lot of options there to learn things.

- Respondent, PMNM Climate Change Survey

We hypothesize that from a research perspective, climate change confers an important 

opportunity to better understand coral reef and island ecosystems, as well as the effectiveness of 

local management actions in conferring ecological resilience. Thus we hypothesize that if welldesigned, comparative studies are implemented, our understanding of globally important 

ecosystems and management strategies will be enhanced by climate change (Strategy 2.4.4). 

Additionally, PMNM has the potential to be an international exemplar for protected area 

management within the context of climate change. By drawing on both Native Hawaiian and 

Western scientific traditions in an integrated way, we believe the Monument is well-positioned to 

demonstrate wise local action in responding to this overarching global change (Goal 4).

2.4.3 Key Implications

Expert analysis of existing evidence suggests that the key implications of climate change 

for PMNM’s cultural and heritage resources include:

• PMNM’s tangible cultural and heritage resources, which include natural resources 

and archeological sites and artifacts, will be negatively affected by climate 

change [high confidence].

• Archaeological sites and artifacts on the high islands of Nihoa and 

Mokumanamana are likely to be more resistant and resilient to climate change 

impacts than natural resources [high confidence].

• There are at least four categories of intangible values associated with 

Papahānaumokuākea: universal values, Native Hawaiian cultural values, heritage 

values, and those derived from PMNM’s opportunity to serve as an exemplar site 

for science and management. These values are the result of human experiences or 

perceptions of Papahānaumokuākea, and they can contribute a sense of place and 

well-being for key constituencies and society at large [high confidence].

• The impact of climate change on both Native Hawaiian cultural and overarching 

social values is largely unknown and warrants further research [high confidence].

• Actions to identify, document, and conserve vulnerable cultural and heritage sites 

can help ameliorate potential climate change impacts [moderate confidence].

• Actions to help facilitate appropriate Native Hawaiian access and to share these 

experiences with the broader Native Hawaiian community can help ameliorate 

potential climate change impacts [moderate confidence].
Chapter 3: References and Appendices

69

Chapter 3

REFERENCES AND APPENDICES

 

3.1 Glossary

- Confidence: a quantitative or qualitative evaluation of the level of scientific understanding in 

support of a conclusion. In this action plan, qualitative assessments of confidence have been made 

based on the amount of supporting evidence, and the level of agreement between experts about 

the interpretation. The levels of confidence applied to assessments made in this Action Plan are:

High 67% or greater

Medium 33–67%

Low 33% or less 

- Ecosystem: The biotic community and its abiotic environment within a specified location in 

space and time. The interacting system of a biological community and its non-living 

environmental surroundings.

- Ecosystem functions: Energy circuits, food chains, diversity patterns in time and space, nutrient 

cycles, development and evolution, and control within an ecosystem (Odum, 1971).

- Ecosystem structure: Pattern of the interrelations of organisms in time and in spatial 

arrangements (Odum, 1971).

- Likelihood: the probability that a future projection or prediction will occur based on expert 

judgment. The categories of likelihood used in this action plan are:

Very likely 90–99% chance

Likely 66–90% chance

May 30–66% chance

Unlikely 29% chance or less 

- Managed species: Species that are legally designated as threatened or endangered, are otherwise 

legally protected, or are an important native species.

- Trans-disciplinary research: Research efforts conducted by investigators from different 

disciplines that work together to create new conceptual, theoretical or methodological innovations 

that move beyond discipline-specific approaches to address a common topic. Given PMNM’s 

management goals of protecting nature and perpetuating Native Hawaiian culture, a key focus for 
Chapter 3: References and Appendices

70

the trans-disciplinary research identified in this document, is developing knowledge that 

integrates both Native Hawaiian and Western scientific understandings of key climate changerelated issues.

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80

3.3 Appendix A. Members of the Steering Committee Formed 

November 2011 to Oversee Development of PMNM’s Climate 

Change Workshop and Climate Change Action Plan

Rusty Brainard

Maria Carnevale

Heidi Guth

Randy Kosaki

Keoni Kuoha

Samantha Brooke

Bob Nishimoto

Michelle Phillips

Dan Polhemus

Heidi Schuttenberg, Facilitator

Nori Shoji

Deanna Spooner

‘Aulani Wilhelm
Chapter 3: References and Appendices

81

3.3 Appendix B. Agenda for the Expert’s Workshop held in June 

2012

A Workshop on Managing Papahānaumokuākea in the Context of 

Climate Change

Workshop Goals:

Develop recommendations for the content of PMNM’s Climate Change Action Plan by:

1. Identifying our current understanding of the potential impacts and adaptive capacity of 

Papahānaumokuākea’s social and ecological values to climate change

2. Identifying potential responses to these changes in terms of their effectiveness and 

feasibility

3. Developing a prioritized agenda of research, monitoring, and instrumentation needs to 

inform management

4. Identifying key goals, audiences, and opportunities to engage in strategic policy and 

outreach efforts

Day 1 – 12 June 2012

9:00 Welcome – Randy Kosaki

9:10 Day 1 Keynote Address – Guy Kaulukukui

A Hawaiian Perspective on Climate Change

9:40 Introductions & Workshop Overview – Heidi Schuttenberg & Heidi Guth

Session 1 – Papahānaumokuākea’s Climate Change Action Plan – Chaired by 

Randy Kosaki

10:00 Vision, Goals, & Key Information Needs for Management – Randy Kosaki 

10:15 What Does it Mean to Manage for Ecosystem Function & Structure? – Gerry Davis

10:30 What Does it Mean to Serve as an Exemplar Site for Management & Science? – Heidi 

Guth

10:45 Questions and Discussion with Monument Management Board

11:00 Coffee/Tea Break

Session 2 – Climate Variables – Chaired by Dan Polhemus 

11:15 Regional Climate Change Projections for Hawai‘i – Kevin Hamilton 

11:30 Sea-level Rise and Implications for Inundation – Chip Fletcher

11:45 Changes in Ocean Temperature, Chemistry, and Currents – Rusty Brainard

12:00 Questions & Discussion

12:20 Lunch (provided)

* Ad hoc lunch working group on Projected Climate Variables for PMNM
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82

Session 3 – Impacts & Adaptive Capacity of PMNM’s Social & Ecological Values to 

Climate Change

Marine Ecosystems – Chaired by Mike Seki

1:30 A Cultural Perspective on Papahānaumokuākea’s Marine Ecosystems in the Context of 

Climate Change – Hi‘ilei Kawelo

1:50 Projections for PMNM’s Marine Ecosystems – Jeff Polovina 

2:10 Projections for ESA Species of Concern – Frank Parrish

2:30 Managing for Resilience – Rod Salm

2:50 Questions & Discussion

3:05 Coffee/Tea Break

Terrestrial Ecosystems – Chaired by Stephen Miller

3:20 Projections for PMNM’s Terrestrial Ecosystems & Species of Concern – Beth Flint

3:40 Projecting the Impacts of Sea-level Rise on PMNM’s Terrestrial Habitats & Wildlife –

Michelle Reynolds

4:00 A Cultural Perspective on Papahānaumokuākea’s Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Context 

of Climate Change – Benton Pang

4:20 Ecosystem Restoration – David Duffy

4:40 Questions & Discussion

4:55 Introduction to Day 2’s Group Work

5-6:30 Off-site nibbles – Cha Cha Cha Salsaria, Hawaiʻi Kai Town Center, 377 Keahole Street

Day 2 – 13 June 2012

Session 3 continued – Potential Impacts & Adaptive Capacity continued

9:00 Welcome & Overview – Heidi Schuttenberg

9:05 Coral Reef Restoration Options – Alasdair Edwards (remotely)

9:30 Day 2 Keynote Address – Roger Griffis (remotely)

A National Perspective on Ecosystem Adaptation

Social Values – Chaired by Keola Lindsey

10:00 Climate Change Impacts on Native Hawaiian Values for Papahānaumokuākea – Ulalia 

Woodside

10:15 The Vulnerability of Papahānaumokuākea’s Heritage Resources to Climate Change –

Kelly Gleason 

10:30 Climate Change Impacts on Papahānaumokuākea’s World Heritage Values – Chuck 

Burrows

10:45 Questions & Discussion

11:00 Review work to be completed in groups
Chapter 3: References and Appendices

83

3 groups of 10 people each

Group 1 – Marine Ecosystems; Facilitated by Randy Kosaki & Michelle Phillips

Group 2 – Island & Atoll Ecosystems; Facilitated by Beth Flint & Sam Gon 

Group 3 – Social Values; Facilitated by Heidi Guth & ‘Aulani Wilhelm 

11:10 Coffee/Tea Break

Session 4 – Work in Groups

Discussion Area 1 – State of Knowledge about Potential Impacts & Adaptive 

Capacity

Suggested time: 11:15am to 12:45pm

1. Identifying Key Vulnerabilities – Would you change anything about the assessment of 

potential impacts & adaptive capacity presented in the Options Paper tables, or do you agree 

with this synthesis? Please consider:

• Do you agree with the assessments of confidence and likelihood presented in the 

Options Paper?

• Are the most significant vulnerabilities identified in the tables, and are they 

accurately presented? 

Note: vulnerabilities may be significant because they are likely to lead to the loss of 

key functions or structures, are particularly likely to occur, are likely to happen the 

soonest, or are irreversible.

• Are there key thresholds at which significant impacts would be expected? 

12:30 – Working Lunch (provided)

Discussion Area 2 – Management Responses

Suggested time: 12:45 to 2:15pm

1. Identifying Management Options – What responsive actions would you recommend for 

supporting social or ecological resilience to the vulnerabilities you have described? Add any 

new actions to the Options Paper tables.

• What would be the specific goal of each recommended action?

2. Assessing Effectiveness – For each management action identified, please describe how 

effective you think the action would be at achieving its specific goal: High, Medium, or Low.

3. Assessing Feasibility – (If time) For each management action identified, please describe how 

technically feasible you think the action would be to implement: High, Medium, or Low.

2:15 Coffee/Tea break

Discussion Area 3 – Research, Monitoring, and Instrumentation Needs

Suggested time for Marine & Social Values WGs: 2:30 to 3:30

Suggested time for Terrestrial WG: 3:00 to 4:00
Chapter 3: References and Appendices

84

1. Prioritizing Research Needs – What key questions and/or information gaps should PMNM’s 

Climate Change Action Plan focus on? Why? Please prioritize your key 

questions/information gaps: High, Medium, or Low.

2. Identifying Instrumentation Needs – For any of these research/monitoring priorities, are 

there specific research/data collection approaches that should be pursued? Do they require 

specific instrumentation needs or other infrastructure support?

3. Identifying Partnerships – For any of these research/monitoring priorities, are there likely 

partners and funding opportunities?

Discussion Area 4 – Identifying the Influence of GHG Emissions

Suggested time for Marine & Social Values WGs: 3:30 to 4:00

Suggested time for Terrestrial WG: 2:30 to 3:00

1. Describing Scenarios – For the impacts of greatest concern, what outcomes do you expect in 

2035 and 2100 for low vs. high greenhouse gas scenarios?

2. Illustrating Change – How would you visualize these differences?

Session 5 – Group Reports – Facilitated by Don Palawski

4:15 Group 1 Report out

4:30 Group 2 Report out

4:45 Group 3 Report out

5:00 Adjourn for day *1 representative from each group to remain until 5:45 to work with 

Heidi Schuttenberg

Day 3 – 14 June 2012

9:00 Welcome & Overview – Heidi Schuttenberg

Session 6 – Synthesis – Facilitated by Heidi Schuttenberg

9:05 Draft Action Plan Recommendations – Heidi Schuttenberg

9:20 Identifying and exploring cross-cutting issues by geography and theme – full group 

discussion

10:15 Coffee/Tea

10:30 Day 3 Keynote Address – ‘Aulani Wilhelm

Global to Regional Dialogues about Climate Change – What Role for 

Papahānaumokuākea?

Session 7 – Implications for Policy, Education, & Outreach – Chaired by Deanna 

Spooner & Heidi Guth

11:00 Lessons learned from communicating climate change: an overview – Deanna Spooner
Chapter 3: References and Appendices

85

11:10 Engaging audiences in climate change as a World Heritage Site – the example of the 

Great Barrier Reef – Katie Munkres (remotely)

11:20 Drawing from Workshop Days 1 & 2: What issues have we raised? – Deanna Spooner 

and Heidi Guth

11:30 Working Group Sessions

1. What do we want to accomplish with PMNM’s Climate Change Action Strategy Goals 4 

& 5?

2. Who are the key audiences we need to reach to achieve these aims?

3. Are there key mechanisms or partnerships that provide strategic opportunities for 

achieving these aims?

12:10 Reconvene full groups to identify priority “what’s,” “who’s,” and “how’s”

12:45 Lunch (provided)

* Ad hoc lunch working group on identifying geographic areas of interest: Are there geographical areas 

that are key refugia or, conversely, where vulnerabilities are the greatest?

1:30 Finalization and preparation of technical workshop presentations

2:30 Afternoon coffee/tea and snacks; Co-Manager agency staff and working group chairs arrive

Invitations for the 3rd afternoon extended to Co-Manager agency staff and the Chairs of PMNM 

working groups

Session 8 – Workshop Conclusions Reported to Monument Staff & Working Group 

Chairs

3:00 Introduction – Randy/Heidi S.

3:10 Climate Drivers – TBD during the workshop

3:25 Marine & Coastal Ecosystems – TBD during the workshop

3:40 Terrestrial & Coastal Ecosystems – TBD during the workshop

3:55 Social Values – TBD during the workshop

4:10 Policy, Outreach, and Education – TBD during the workshop

4:25 Questions & Discussion

5pm Adjourn

 
Chapter 3: References and Appendices

86

3.5 Appendix C. Agenda for the PMNM Climate Change Action 

Plan Workshop held in September 2013
Chapter 3: References and Appendices

87
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88
Chapter 3: References and Appendices

89