Final Draft Report 

Comparison of CAIR and CAIR Plus Proposal using the Integrated Planning 

Model (IPM®) 

 

Prepared for 

Mid-Atlantic Regional Air Management Association (MARAMA)

Prepared by 

ICF Resources, L.L.C. 

9300 Lee Highway 

Fairfax, VA 22031 

May 30, 2007 
2

Table of Contents 

Table of Contents..........................................................................................................................2 

A. Overview...................................................................................................................................3 

B. Modeling Assumptions and Changes Made to VISTAS Run....................................................3 

C. Results .....................................................................................................................................7 

1. Production Costs...................................................................................................................7 

2. Projected Control Technology Retrofits ................................................................................9 

3. Emissions............................................................................................................................10 

4. Allowance Market................................................................................................................11 

5. Fuel Consumption and Prices.............................................................................................13 

6. Power Plant Retirements ....................................................................................................14 

7. Power Plant Generation......................................................................................................15 

8. New Power Plant Builds......................................................................................................17 

D. Limitations of Analysis............................................................................................................18 

Appendix 1: Summary of Changes to EPA Base Case v2.1.9 by Vistas ................................19 

Appendix 2: MANE-VU IPM Global Parameter Decisions ......................................................20 

Appendix 3: Detailed Assumptions Used in MARAMA analysis .............................................22 

Appendix 4: Comparison of Assumptions Used in VISTAS and MARAMA analysis ..............36 

Appendix 5: Emission and Cost Results .................................................................................43 
3

A. Overview 

MARAMA has awarded a contract to ICF Resources, L.L.C. (ICF), seeking ICF’s services to 

evaluate the impact of EPA’s CAIR Policy and the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Visibility Union 

(MANE-VU) CAIR Plus proposal on the electric generating sector for the contiguous United 

States using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). 

IPM is a dynamic linear optimization model that can be used to examine air pollution control 

policies for various pollutants throughout the contiguous U.S. for the entire electric power 

system. The dynamic nature of IPM enables the projection of the behavior of the power system 

over a specified future period. The optimization logic determines the least-cost means of 

meeting electric generation and capacity requirements while complying with specified 

constraints including air pollution regulations, transmission bottlenecks, and plant-specific 

operational constraints. The versatility of IPM allows users to specify which constraints to 

exercise and populate IPM with their own datasets. 

This report summarizes the analysis that ICF has performed in evaluating the impact of the 

CAIR Plus proposal in the CAIR Plus region on the electricity generating sector by using IPM 

(hereafter, the analysis is referred to as the MARAMA analysis). As part of this analysis, ICF 

has also developed a Base Case that implements EPA’s CAIR, CAMR and CAVR policies. The 

model assumptions and data used in this analysis are presented in Section B. The results are 

presented in Section C and the analysis limitations are presented in Section D. 

Since the modeling is based on analyses developed by U.S. EPA, VISTAS and LADCO, we 

have summarized only the incremental changes that were proposed by MARAMA as part of this 

analysis. The documentation for EPA’s v2.1.9 and v3.0 base cases is available at 

http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/epa-ipm. The VISTAS study assumptions are 

summarized in Appendix 1 and 2. 

B. Modeling Assumptions and Changes Made to VISTAS Run 

The MARAMA analysis is based on the recent IPM based analysis performed for VISTAS 

except for changes made by MARAMA. These runs are based on the VISTASII_PC_1f run that 

was developed for VISTAS in 2005. As per direction from MARAMA, the following assumptions 

for modeling the MARAMA Base Case-CAIR/CAMR/CAVR (MARAMA 5c) and MARAMA CAIR 

Plus Policy Case (MARAMA 4c) were implemented. Detailed assumptions are summarized in 

Appendix 3. 

a) Run year configuration: The run year configuration was updated to separate out the 

key analysis years of 2009, 2012 and 2018. The revised configuration is summarized in 

Table 1: 
4

Table 1: Run Years in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

Run Year Calendar Years 

2008 2007-2008 

2009 2009-2009 

2010 2010-2011 

2012 2012-2012 

2015 2013-2017 

2018 2018-2018 

2020 2019-2022 

2026 2023-2030 

b) Natural Gas Prices: As per direction from MARAMA, ICF implemented the EPA Base 

Case v3.0 natural gas supply curves that were based on ICF’s NANGAS (North 

American Natural Gas Analysis System) model as part of this analysis. These gas 

supply curves are documented in the EPA Base Case v3.0 documentation published on 

its website. The gas supply curves used in the VISTAS analysis were based on the EPA 

Base Case v2.1.9. The gas supply curves used in the MARAMA analysis will result in 

higher gas prices as compared to the VISTAS analysis. For example, for a 5 quad gas 

consumption in the power sector, the Henry hub gas price using the EPA Base Case 

v3.0 gas supply curves will result in a gas price that is approximately 40-60% (based on 

the run year) higher than if EPA Base Case v2.1.9 gas supply curves were used.

c) Fuel Oil Prices: The fuel oil price projections from AEO 2006 were implemented in the 

MARAMA analysis and are higher as compared to the VISTAS analysis. The fuel oil 

price projections used in the VISTAS analysis were based on AEO 2005. The AEO 2006 

assumptions are documented in the EPA Base Case v3.0. 

d) SCR and Scrubber Feasibility Limits: Table 2 summarizes the cumulative SCR and 

scrubber feasibility limits that were implemented (in the MARAMA analysis) in the years 

2008, 2009 and 2010. These limits are beyond existing control installations and prevent 

the model from projecting a level of SCR and scrubber builds in the short-term that was 

higher than the industry’s capability to deliver. The feasibility limits in 2008 and 2009 are 

based on actual planned SCR and scrubber installations. The 2010 limit for scrubbers is 

based on a projection for installation of SO2 scrubbers under CAIR. It is based on an 

internal analysis that accounted for the 2008/2009 feasibility limits. In the VISTAS study, 

feasibility limits for SCR and scrubbers were not applied in 2008, 2009 and 2010. 

Note that in 2008, 2009 and 2010 run years, the individual unit level decisions were not 

hardwired but IPM will choose to build only the most economic SCRs and scrubbers up 

to those limits. 

Table 2: Cumulative SCR and FGD Feasibility Limits in MARAMA Base Case and 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case Runs 

Year SCR (GW) Scrubbers (GW) 

2008 9 31 

2009 15 51 

2010 No Limit 69 

Note: The above limits are incremental to those that are already installed on existing 

units as assumed in NEEDS. 
5

e) CAVR (Clean Air Visibility Rule): Consistent with U.S. EPA’s implementation of the 

CAVR rule, MARAMA has implemented the CAVR rule beginning in the run year 2015 

within the MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case runs.

CAVR SO2 Requirements: All CAVR eligible, unscrubbed, non CAIR and non 

WRAP affected sources larger than 200 MW are required to meet an output 

emission rate of 0.15 lbs/MMBtu of SO2 or achieve 95% removal. However, only 

the option to meet the 0.15 lbs/MMBtu of SO2 emission rate was provided in IPM. 

This assumption was based on the results from a comparison of output SO2

emission rates of unscrubbed CAVR affected units in the VISTAS analysis when 

adjusted for a 95% removal with 0.15 lbs/MMBtu. The 0.15 lbs/MMBtu rate limit 

was always higher and hence is a lower cost strategy.

CAVR NOx Requirements: All CAVR eligible, non CAIR affected sources larger 

than 200 MW are required to install combustion controls. SCRs are also required 

if the affected units are cyclone fired. All existing SCRs are required to operate 

annually. 

Note that CAVR eligible sources in the above discussion imply the list of CAVR affected 

sources that U.S. EPA had modeled in their CAVR analysis using IPM. A list of units 

affected by the CAVR SO2 and NOx requirements are shown in Appendix 3 (tables A3.5a 

and A3.5b respectively). 

f) Title IV SO2 Bank: The IPM modeling time period in the MARAMA analysis is 2007-

2030. In order to capture the dynamics of the SO2 allowance market pre 2007, MARAMA 

has implemented a Title IV SO2 allowance bank of 6.43 million tons going into the year 

2007. This assumption is based on an internal ICF analysis of the current market 

conditions. 

g) Applicable States for Programs: The MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case run is based 

on the MARAMA Base Case run with the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case proposal 

implemented as a replacement of the CAIR policy. Figure 1 shows a U.S. map with 

states affected by CAIR and CAIR Plus policies highlighted. 
6

 Figure 1: States affected by CAIR and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policies 

h) NOx and SO2 Budgets: Table 3 summarizes the NOx budgets implemented in the MARAMA 

Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case runs, and Table 4 summarizes SO2 allowance 

retirement ratios implemented in the MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy 

Case runs. The NOx budgets under the Base Case and CAIR Plus policy cases in Table 3 are 

not comparable because there are more states in the CAIR Plus domain as compared to the 

CAIR domain in the Base Case. In IPM, emissions budgets are modeled as a cap that all 

affected sources together are required to comply with. These sources can buy or sell emission 

allowances among themselves and bank for future use under favorable economics. 

The SO2 allowance retirement ratio is the number of Title IV SO2 allowances that need to be 

surrendered for each ton of SO2 emissions in the CAIR/CAIR Plus region. In IPM, a CAIR/CAIR 

Plus policy affected source is required to surrender the applicable number of Title IV SO2

allowances determined by the SO2 retirement ratio for every ton of SO2 emission. A non 

CAIR/CAIR Plus policy affected source surrenders one Title IV SO2 allowance for every ton of 

SO2 emissions. 

 

CAIR Plus Policy & CAIR Annual NOx 

CAIR Plus Policy & CAIR Annual NOx and 

SO2 Policy & CAIR ozone season NOx Policy 

CAIR Plus Policy & CAIR ozone season 

NOx Policy 

MN

RI

MO

AR

TX

LA

WI

MI

IL IN OH

KY

TN

MS AL GA

FL 

SC 

NC 

VA

WV

PA

NY 

ME VT 

NH 

MD

DE

NJ CT IA

MA

DC

CAIR Plus Policy 
7

 Table 3: NOx Budgets in the CAIR/CAIR Plus Region (Thousand Tons) 

NOx Ozone Season Budget NOx Annual Budget 

Year MARAMA Base Case MARAMA CAIR 

Plus Policy Case 

MARAMA Base Case MARAMA CAIR 

Plus Policy Case 

2009 568 623 1,722* 1,553* 

2010 568 623 1,522 1,353 

2012 568 415 1,522 902 

2015 518 395 1,370 858 

2018 485 382 1,268 829 

 * Includes NOx Compliance Supplement Pool of 199,997 tons included in 2009. 

Note: The 2015 budgets as modeled in IPM are the average of the budgets over the period 2013-2017. The 

actual ozone season NOx budgets proposed are 485 thousand tons in CAIR and 382 thousand tons in CAIR plus 

for 2015. The actual annual NOx budgets proposed are 1,268 thousand tons in CAIR and 829 thousand tons in 

CAIR plus for 2015. 

 Table 4: SO2 Allowance Retirement Ratios in the CAIR/CAIR Plus Region 

SO2 Allowance Retirement Ratio 

Year MARAMA Base Case MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

2009 1.00 1.00 

2010 2.00 2.50 

2012 2.00 2.94 

2015 2.52 3.32 

2018 2.86 4.16 

Note: The 2015 retirement ratios as modeled in IPM are the average of the retirement ratios over the period 

2013-2017. The actual retirement ratios are 2.86 for CAIR and 3.57 for CAIR Plus for 2015. 

i) SO2 and NOx emission allowances were allowed to be banked in any year and then withdrawn 

from the bank in a future year under the CAIR program in the base case and the CAIR Plus 

programs. 

C. Results 

In this section, ICF has presented the costs, control installations, emissions, allowance market 

impacts, delivered fuel prices, generation, power plant retirements and new builds from the 

MARAMA Base Case and then compared these results with those from the MARAMA CAIR 

Plus Policy Case run. Appendix 5 summarizes the SO2 and NOx emission results and 

production cost components on a state and RPO level. The following paragraphs discuss the 

results from the two runs. 

1. Production Costs 

IPM projects the production cost of the U.S. power sector for each of the modeled run years. 

The production cost includes the annualized capital costs of new investment decisions (includes 

control equipment costs and new build costs), fuel costs and the total variable and fixed 

operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of power plants. Allowance costs are not listed as a 

separate category because on a region wide basis the net cost is zero (number of allowances 
8

purchased is equal to the number of allowances sold). The administrative costs related to the 

purchase and sale of allowances are not modeled in IPM. The annualized incremental cost1

 of 

the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy as compared to MARAMA Base Case is summarized in Table 5. 

The analysis projects a total cost of $10.7 billion in 2009 & $2.6 billion in 2018 respectively. 

Note that the cost of the policy is highest in 2009 (higher fuel costs being the main contributor of 

higher production costs) and then decreases starting 2010. This is because in 2009 there are 

limitations to the number of units that can install SCRs. In 2010 however, these limits are 

relaxed. In order to comply with the tight NOx regulations and the limitations on SCR 

installations, the power sector increases natural gas-fired generation. In 2009 in the MARAMA 

CAIR Plus Policy Case the gas consumption increases by 812 TBtu and $0.85/MMBtu. This 

increase in gas consumption and the gas price result in a spike in fuel costs. Note that these 

costs are for the entire U.S. power sector and the policy could affect states that are within and 

outside the CAIR Plus region. 

Table 5: Incremental Cost of the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case Compared to MARAMA 

Base Case -- US Power Sector (1999 Billion Dollars) 

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018 

Variable O&M Cost 0.04 0.01 0.32 0.51 0.41 0.28 

Fixed O&M Cost 0.01 -0.03 0.12 0.29 0.20 0.13 

Fuel Cost 0.04 10.40 0.17 -0.90 0.04 0.23 

Annualized Capital Cost 0.26 0.31 1.58 2.43 2.12 1.93 

Total Production Cost 0.36 10.69 2.19 2.33 2.77 2.57 

Note: To convert year 1999 dollars to year 2006 dollars, use a conversion factor of 1.1856 

The marginal costs2 of emission reductions as manifested in the projected allowance prices in 

the MARAMA Base Case and the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case are shown in Table 6. The 

SO2 and NOx allowance prices in the CAIR Plus region in the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

run are high starting in 2009 due to the relatively tighter policies applied to the CAIR Plus region 

as compared to the SO2 and NOx policies in the MARAMA Base Case. Tighter policies result in 

more expensive compliance options being chosen resulting in higher allowance prices. The NOx

allowance prices are high in 2009 and drop in 2010 because the SCR feasibility limits are 

relaxed starting in 2010. In 2009, due to limitations on SCR installations, a significant increase 

in natural gas fired generation occurs, driving up the annual NOx allowance prices. Starting in 

2010, SCRs are installed resulting in a reduction in the use of more expensive NOx reduction 

options such as natural gas generation, driving down the annual NOx allowance prices. 

The compliance options available to power plants to reduce both annual NOx emissions and the 

ozone season NOx emissions are same. In addition the plants affected by the ozone season 

NOx policy and the annual NOx policy in the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case are identical. A 

plant that installs a NOx control option such as a SCR will be able to reduce emissions in both 

the ozone season and the non ozone season and hence simultaneously affect CAIR/CAIR Plus 

annual NOx and ozone season NOx allowance markets. It appears that complying with the 

annual NOx policy results in an over compliance with the ozone season NOx policy and is 

highlighted by the zero ozone season NOx allowance price starting 2010. 

 

1

 Annual Incremental Production Cost = Annualized Production Cost of MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

– Annualized Production Cost of MARAMA Base Case. 

2

 Marginal cost is defined as the cost of reducing one additional ton of emissions. 
9

Table 6: Allowance prices (Marginal Costs) of Emission Reductions in MARAMA Base 

Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (1999 $/ton)

CAIR/CAIR Plus Policy 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

MARAMA Base Case 

SO2 640 692 748 809 943 1,106 

NOx – Ozone3 14,580 15,760 0 0 0 0 

NOx - Annual NA 3,047 1,149 1,155 1,337 1,567 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

SO2 806 872 942 1,019 1,188 1,392 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 166 180 194 210 245 286 

NOx – Ozone 14,710 11,150 0 0 0 0 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 130 -4,610 0 0 0 0 

NOx - Annual NA 17,920 4,240 4,586 5,346 6,266 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case NA 14,873 3,091 3,431 4,009 4,699 

Note: To convert year 1999 dollars to year 2006 dollars, use a conversion factor of 1.1856. 

 

2. Projected Control Technology Retrofits 

Installation of controls is one of the strategies that the power sector opts for complying with the 

CAIR Plus proposal requirements. This strategy is in addition to other compliance strategies 

such as changes to fuel switching, plant retirements, plant dispatch and new builds. Under the 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case, an additional 19.5 GW of SO2 scrubbers and 77.8 GW of 

selective catalytic reduction (SCRs) are installed by 2012 (see Table 7). In the MARAMA CAIR 

Plus Policy Case, the SCR feasibility limits in 2008 and 2009 run years and the SO2 scrubber 

limits in 2008 and 2010 run years are achieved. 

 Table 7: Incremental Pollution Control Installations by Technology in the MARAMA 

CAIR Plus Policy Case with the MARAMA Base Case (GW) 

Technology 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

MARAMA Base Case 

Scrubber 24.9 31.4 59.7 65.6 87.5 98.7 

SCR 9.0 15.0 38.5 42.1 58.6 66.3 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

Scrubber 30.5 38.9 69.5 85.1 106.4 115.3 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 5.6 7.5 9.8 19.5 18.9 16.6 

SCR 9.0 15.0 115.2 120.0 124.5 131.2 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0.0 0.0 76.8 77.8 65.9 64.9 

 

3 The 2008 NOx ozone season allowance price is for the SIP Call policy. Starting 2009 it is for the CAIR/CAIR Plus 

ozone season NOx policy. 
10

3. Emissions 

Tables 8 and 9 summarize the SO2 and NOx emissions from all units including both fossil and 

nonfossil units in the MARAMA Base Case and the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case in the 

2008, 2009, 2010, 2012, 2015 and 2018 run years. The projected state-level emissions for SO2

and NOx for the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case and the MARAMA Base Case are presented 

in Tables A5.1-A5.3 in Appendix 5. 

Note, that the CAIR/CAIR Plus policies are not applied to the WRAP region in the MARAMA 

Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case runs, and hence the SO2 and NOx emissions 

in the two runs in the WRAP region are similar. The CAIR/CAIR Plus NOx programs start in 

2009. Hence, the NOx emissions are lower starting in 2009. The NOx emissions in CAIR Plus 

region in Table 9 do not match the corresponding NOx budgets in Table 3 because NOx

emissions in Table 9 include emissions from both CAIR Plus affected and not affected units. 

The CAIR/CAIR Plus SO2 programs start in 2010. However, the SO2 emissions are lower prior 

to 2010 because Title IV SO2 allowances that are banked prior to 2010 can be used to comply 

with the CAIR/CAIR Plus provisions starting 2010. 

Both the CAIR and CAIR Plus programs are cap and trade policies. Therefore, while the CAIR 

Plus policy is more stringent than the CAIR policy, emissions can still go up in individual states 

in MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case as compared to MARAMA Base Case. 

Table 8: Annual SO2 Emissions from the U.S. Electric Power Sector (All Units including 

Fossil and Non-fossil units) (Thousand Tons) 

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

MARAMA Base Case 

MANE-VU 802.1 650.2 518.3 462.7 410.5 393.8 

LADCO 1,950.5 1,785.1 1,594.8 1,593.4 1,490.5 1,437.7 

VISTAS 2,879.6 2,702.0 2,094.5 1,981.2 1,689.7 1,398.2 

CENRAP 1,395.3 1,391.1 1,397.3 1,385.4 1,158.9 1,136.8 

WRAP 508.1 507.5 533.2 533.6 477.8 419.1 

CAIR Plus Policy States 6,760.0 6,260.7 5,334.7 5,150.3 4,605.0 4,219.8 

National Total 7,535.6 7,036.0 6,138.1 5,956.3 5,227.4 4,785.6 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

MANE-VU 734.6 555.5 396.4 376.7 311.9 270.7 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -67.5 -94.8 -121.8 -86.0 -98.6 -123.1 

LADCO 1,775.5 1,660.3 1,454.9 1,448.0 1,332.6 1,275.1 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -174.9 -124.8 -139.9 -145.4 -157.9 -162.6 

VISTAS 2,696.8 2,049.4 1,769.9 1,461.5 1,190.6 991.8 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -182.9 -652.6 -324.7 -519.7 -499.1 -406.4 

CENRAP 1,390.5 1,325.0 1,385.1 1,314.1 1,014.8 961.8 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -4.8 -66.1 -12.2 -71.3 -144.1 -175.0 

WRAP 503.0 506.1 550.4 552.3 497.8 440.8 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -5.1 -1.4 17.1 18.7 20.0 21.7 

CAIR Plus Policy States 6,331.6 5,324.1 4,735.4 4,325.7 3,705.2 3,350.8 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -428.4 -936.6 -599.3 -824.6 -899.8 -869.1 

National Total 7,100.4 6,096.3 5,556.7 5,152.6 4,347.6 3,940.3 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -435.2 -939.7 -581.5 -803.8 -879.8 -845.3 
11

 

Table 9: Annual NOx Emissions from the U.S. Electric Power Sector (All Units including 

Fossil and Non-fossil units) (Thousand Tons) 

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018 

MARAMA Base Case 

MANE-VU 386.0 271.9 213.2 208.7 202.3 198.8 

LADCO 803.9 483.4 413.0 409.0 389.5 382.1 

VISTAS 1,207.6 699.9 622.0 621.1 502.0 452.9 

CENRAP 754.5 604.1 603.0 616.0 539.4 538.3 

WRAP 601.1 606.3 610.1 613.5 483.4 493.5 

CAIR Plus Policy States 2,944.5 1,847.6 1,642.5 1,643.8 1,488.0 1,426.5 

National Total 3,753.1 2,665.6 2,461.3 2,468.5 2,116.6 2,065.6 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

MANE-VU 375.9 228.0 158.8 162.1 152.7 145.6 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -10.1 -43.9 -54.4 -46.7 -49.6 -53.2 

LADCO 804.2 425.9 251.2 249.2 244.7 241.8 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0.4 -57.5 -161.8 -159.8 -144.8 -140.3 

VISTAS 1,215.7 597.6 350.8 351.2 346.2 350.3 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 8.0 -102.3 -271.2 -269.9 -155.8 -102.6 

CENRAP 754.5 577.5 420.9 431.6 361.6 351.7 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0.1 -26.6 -182.1 -184.4 -177.8 -186.6 

WRAP 600.5 606.5 610.0 615.2 485.5 495.7 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -0.6 0.2 -0.1 1.7 2.1 2.2 

CAIR Plus Policy States 2,942.9 1,614.1 972.8 982.6 957.1 941.4 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -1.6 -233.4 -669.7 -661.2 -530.9 -485.1

National Total 3,750.9 2,435.5 1,791.6 1,809.3 1,590.7 1,585.1 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -2.2 -230.2 -669.7 -659.1 -525.8 -480.5 

4. Allowance Market 

Tables 10a and 10b summarize the CAIR/CAIR Plus SO2 and NOx allowance market as 

implemented in the CAIR/CAIR Plus region in the MARAMA Base Case and the MARAMA 

CAIR Plus Policy Case. 

The going into 2007 Title IV SO2 bank is assumed to be 6.43 million tons. In IPM, SO2 emission 

allowances are banked in 2008 and 2009 and withdrawn in subsequent years. Allowances are 

not banked in later years as the CAIR/CAIR Plus policy starts in 2010 resulting in reduced 

opportunities for over complying. Annual NOx emission allowances are banked in 2010 and not 

in 2009 in the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case because restrictions on SCR installations 

prevent over compliance of the NOx cap in 2009. 

Starting 2010 in both the CAIR/CAIR Plus ozone season NOx policies, the number of ozone 

season NOx allowances that are withdrawn from the bank are less than the allowances that are 

banked. This occurs because of a surplus of ozone season NOx allowance availability and is 

highlighted by the zero ozone season NOx allowance price. On a separate note, the allowances 

banked in the SIP Call budget program are allowed to be banked and used in the ozone season 

NOx program starting in 2009. The going into 2007 NOx SIP Call bank is assumed to be zero. 
12

Table 10a: Summary of SO2 and NOx Allowance Market in MARAMA Base Case 

(Thousand Tons) 

Run Year 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018 2020 

Years Mapped to Run Year 

2007-

2008 2009

2010-

2011

2012-

2012

2013-

2017 2018

2019-

2022

CAIR - SO2 

Annual Emissions at Affected Units 

(Fossil Units > 25 MW) 7,333 6,831 5,942 5,760 5,029 4,586 4,171 

Allowances Banked 5,245 2,449 0 0 0 0 0 

Allowances Withdrawn from Bank 0 0 -1,072 -888 -1,072 -1,143 -722 

CAIR – Ozone Season NOx 

Ozone Season Emission Budget 497 568 568 568 518 485 485 

Ozone Season Emissions at Affected 

Units (Fossil Units > 25 MW in CAIR 

Region) 492 579 558 558 502 482 465 

Allowances Banked 5 0 10 10 16 3 20 

Allowances Withdrawn from Bank 0 -11 0 0 0 0 0 

CAIR – Annual NOx 

Annual Emission Budget NA 1,722 1,522 1,522 1,370 1,268 1,268 

Annual Emissions at Affected Units 

(Fossil Units > 25 MW in CAIR 

Region) 

NA 

1,722 1,522 1,522 1,363 1,298 1,268 

Allowances Banked NA 0 0 0 6 0 0 

Allowances Withdrawn from Bank NA 0 0 0 0 -30 0 

Note: The 2008 NOx ozone season results reflect those from the SIP Call NOx program and starting 2009 reflect 

those from the CAIR ozone season NOx policy.

Table 10b: Summary of SO2 and NOx Allowance Market in MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy 

Case (Thousand Tons) 

Run Year 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018 2020 

Years Mapped to Run Year 

2007-

2008 2009

2010-

2011

2012-

2012

2013-

2017 2018

2019-

2022

CAIR Plus - SO2 

Annual Emissions at Affected Units 

(Fossil Units > 25 MW) 6,898 5,900 5,360 4,956 4,151 3,739 3,205 

Allowances Banked 5,680 3,380 0 0 0 0 0 

Allowances Withdrawn from Bank 0 0 -1,353 -1,424 -1,094 -1,234 -691 

CAIR Plus – Ozone Season NOx 

Ozone Season Emission Budget 497 623 623 416 395 382 382 

Ozone Season Emissions at Affected 

Units (Fossil Units > 25 MW in CAIR 

Plus Region) 497 623 404 412 398 395 389 

Allowances Banked 0 0 219 4 0 0 0 

Allowances Withdrawn from Bank 0 0 0 0 -3 -13 -7 

CAIR Plus – Annual NOx 

Annual Emission Budget NA 1,553 1,353 902 858 829 829 

Annual Emissions at Affected Units 

(Fossil Units > 25 MW in CAIR Plus 

Region) 

NA 

1,553 918 927 898 882 867 

Allowances Banked NA 0 436 0 0 0 0 

Allowances Withdrawn from Bank NA 0 0 -25 -39 -53 -38 
13

Note: The 2008 NOx ozone season results reflect those from the SIP Call NOx program and starting 2009 reflect 

those from the CAIR ozone season NOx policy.

5. Fuel Consumption and Prices 

Table 11a summarizes the coal and natural gas consumption in the U.S. power sector as 

projected by IPM in the MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case runs. Table 

11b summarizes the delivered coal and natural gas prices solved by IPM in the MARAMA Base 

Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case runs. The delivered gas prices are not inputs to the 

model but are determined endogenously by equilibrating demand and supply. 

In the MARAMA Base Case, the natural gas prices in 2008 are higher than 2009. This is due to 

differences in the supply curves for the two years. As an example, for a gas consumption level 

of 5,696 TBtu, the gas price in 2008 is $7.23/MMbtu. However, at the same level of gas 

consumption, the gas price in 2009 would be at $6.12. 

The fuel costs shown in Table 5 are incremental costs (i.e. MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case – 

MARAMA Base Case). The increase in fuel costs of $10.4 billion dollars in 2009 is a result of 

the incremental increase in natural gas prices of $0.85MMBtu between the two cases (i.e. 

$7.83/MMBtu in the CAIR Plus Policy case versus $6.98 in the MARAMA Base Case) and an 

increase in natural gas consumption 812 TBtu. 

The gas prices are higher in most years in the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case, in comparison 

to the MARAMA Base Case. This is a result of an increase in gas consumption as shifting from 

coal to gas is a compliance option leading to higher gas prices. In 2009 the gas prices increase 

is the highest because of restrictions on new SCR builds which result in an increase in gas 

consumption by 812 TBtu. 

Table 11a: Fuel Consumption in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy 

Case (TBtu) 

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

MARAMA Base Case 

Coal 22,938 22,706 25,594 26,050 27,489 29,198 

Natural Gas 5,696 6,598 4,619 5,314 5,191 5,444 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case

Coal 22,863 21,503 25,396 26,099 27,318 28,699 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -76 -1,203 -198 49 -171 -500 

Natural Gas 5,728 7,410 4,679 5,186 5,209 5,647 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 32 812 60 -129 18 203 
14

Table 11b: Delivered Fuel Prices in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy 

Case (1999 $/MMBtu) 

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

MARAMA Base Case 

Coal 1.09 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.03 1 

Natural Gas 7.39 6.98 4.82 4.75 4.15 4.01 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case

Coal 1.09 1.06 1.06 1.04 1.02 0.99 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 

Natural Gas 7.39 7.83 4.88 4.75 4.19 4.05 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 0.85 0.06 0 0.04 0.04 

6. Power Plant Retirements 

A tighter environmental policy increases the total production costs of a power plant, including its 

compliance costs, and thus could make it uneconomic. Table 12 summarizes the power plant 

retirements in the MARAMA Base Case and the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case. Note that 

the more stringent CAIR Plus policy results in an increase in total retirements by 4.9 GW in 

2009. Oil/gas steam units that are uneconomic to run under the CAIR Plus policy retire. 

Increase in natural gas use as presented in Table 11a is accounted for by the remaining gas 

fired units that have relatively lower costs of operation. 

Table 12: Power Plant Retirements in MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case with the MARAMA 

Base Case (MW) 

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

MARAMA Base Case 

Coal Steam 196 196 196 196 196 196 

Combined Cycle 2,669 2,669 3,340 3,340 3,464 3,464 

Combustion Turbine 2,804 2,804 3,143 3,143 3,143 3,143 

Oil/Gas Steam 53,826 53,826 60,763 60,763 60,858 60,858 

Other1 0 0 0 0 0 0 

National Total 59,495 59,495 67,442 67,442 67,661 67,661 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

Coal Steam 279 2,269 2,689 2,689 2,689 2,689 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 83 2,073 2,493 2,493 2,493 2,493 

Combined Cycle 2,822 2,822 3,540 3,540 3,541 3,541 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 153 153 200 200 77 77 

Combustion Turbine 2,804 2,804 3,143 3,143 3,143 3,143 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Oil/Gas Steam 56,467 56,467 63,023 63,023 63,023 63,023 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 2,641 2,641 2,260 2,260 2,165 2,165 

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 0 0 0 0 0 

National Total 62,372 64,362 72,395 72,395 72,396 72,396 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 2,877 4,867 4,953 4,953 4,735 4,735 

Note: The category “Other” includes all plant types other than coal steam, oil/gas steam, combined cycle 

and combustion turbines. 
15

7. Power Plant Generation 

Changes in power plant generation is one of the compliance strategies for meeting a tighter 

environmental policy. In the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case as compared to the MARAMA 

Base Case, the generation mix changes towards lower emission intensive fuel and plant types. 

Table 13 summarizes the generation mix in the MARAMA Base Case and the MARAMA CAIR 

Plus Policy Case. Note that there is an increase in natural gas fired generation (from combined 

cycles, combustion turbines and oil/gas steam units) and a reduction in coal fired generation 

(from coal steam and IGCC units) in all years except 2012. The overall increase in coal fired 

generation in 2012 occurs because it is the first year when the scrubber feasibility limits are no 

longer applicable resulting in an increase in scrubber installations and a relatively lower drop in 

generation from the coal steam units. Coal generation in 2010 is also not higher due to the 

presence of scrubber limits. In years after 2012, the SO2 and NOx policies in the MARAMA 

CAIR Plus Policy Case continue to become more stringent resulting in an increase in gas based 

generation. 

The electricity demand in both the MARAMA Base Case and the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy 

Case are identical. However the power generation in the two runs is different due to differences 

in transmission and pump storage losses. 
16

 Table 13: Generation by Plant Type in the U.S. Electric Power Sector (GWh) 

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

MARAMA Base Case 

Coal Steam 2,202,868 2,180,582 2,491,528 2,541,830 2,560,775 2,735,709

Combined Cycle 698,066 785,335 589,215 665,117 664,622 687,933

Combustion Turbine 37,735 49,113 30,941 38,341 36,254 49,527

Oil/Gas Steam 48,477 53,885 13,752 20,565 18,459 17,581

IGCC 4,702 4,702 14,142 14,148 192,239 226,262

Nuclear 796,130 796,715 797,725 801,460 810,065 807,698

Hydro (includes Pump Storage) 295,814 289,778 293,886 292,400 295,679 295,911

Biomass 14,301 14,929 17,039 22,183 25,969 29,742

Landfill Gas 13,715 13,747 13,747 13,747 16,063 16,384

Wind 32,308 32,414 32,664 32,782 34,486 36,289

Other 69,259 69,420 75,569 75,931 78,123 75,889

National Total 4,213,375 4,290,620 4,370,208 4,518,504 4,732,734 4,978,925

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

Coal Steam 2,194,992 2,067,557 2,451,724 2,530,526 2,541,139 2,663,300

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -7,876 -113,025 -39,804 -11,304 -19,636 -72,409 

Combined Cycle 703,266 889,217 598,711 650,084 671,380 736,610

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 5,200 103,882 9,496 -15,033 6,758 48,677 

Combustion Turbine 38,778 54,216 31,351 36,534 33,886 37,414

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 1,043 5,103 410 -1,807 -2,368 -12,113 

Oil/Gas Steam 46,979 55,463 12,714 19,655 18,028 17,755

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -1,498 1,578 -1,038 -910 -431 174 

IGCC 4,702 4,702 41,408 41,408 205,343 259,435

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 0 27,266 27,260 13,104 33,173 

Nuclear 796,130 796,715 797,725 801,460 810,065 807,698

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Hydro (includes Pump Storage) 294,857 289,566 292,858 292,016 294,154 294,310

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -957 -212 -1,028 -384 -1,525 -1,601 

Biomass 14,307 14,935 17,421 20,998 26,426 30,466

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 6 6 382 -1,185 457 724 

Landfill Gas 14,259 14,290 14,290 14,290 16,607 16,607

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 544 543 543 543 544 223 

Wind 34,522 34,627 34,877 34,936 35,383 37,187

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 2,214 2,213 2,213 2,154 897 898 

Other 69,259 68,125 75,569 75,931 78,123 75,889

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 -1,295 0 0 0 0 

National Total 4,212,051 4,289,413 4,368,648 4,517,838 4,730,534 4,976,671

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case -1,324 -1,207 -1,560 -666 -2,200 -2,254 

Note: The plant type “Other” includes solar, geothermal and waste fired units. 
17

8. New Power Plant Builds 

Table 14 summarizes the new power plant builds in the MARAMA Base Case and the MARAMA 

CAIR Plus Policy Case. In the MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case, new builds are higher than in 

the MARAMA Base Case because of a need to compensate for the increase in power plant 

retirements as presented in Table 12 and to take advantage of the relatively cleaner emission 

profiles of the new technologies. 

New IGCC’s have lower emission rates and lower heat rates making them more valuable under 

a stringent environmental policy. Hence IGCC’s are built in 2010 and 2012 in the MARAMA 

CAIR Plus Policy Case and not in the MARAMA Base Case. 

In 2018, the SO2 allowance retirement ratio increases from 3.32 to 4.16. This increase results in 

a drop in coal fired generation and an increase in natural gas fired generation. In order to 

support this increase, in 2018 there is a significant increase in new combined cycle capacity that 

is more cost effective for base and intermediate load operation and a corresponding decrease in 

new combustion turbine capacity that is cost effective for peak load operation. 

 Table 14: New Power Plant Builds by Plant Type in the United States (MW)

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018

MARAMA Base Case 

Coal Steam 0 0 38,084 44,332 48,833 75,341 

IGCC 0 0 0 0 23,187 27,617 

Combined Cycle 6,550 6,550 6,550 8,580 20,518 24,265 

Combustion Turbine 4,625 4,625 4,625 4,625 4,848 16,302 

Biomass 0 0 349 978 1,570 2,099 

Landfill Gas 1,241 1,241 1,241 1,241 1,552 1,595 

Wind 5,153 5,153 5,153 5,193 5,739 6,283 

National Total 17,569 17,569 56,002 64,949 106,247 153,502 

MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case 

Coal Steam 0 0 35,674 46,627 52,245 72,806 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 0 -2,410 2,295 3,412 -2,535 

IGCC 0 0 3,651 3,651 24,995 32,038 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 0 3,651 3,651 1,808 4,421 

Combined Cycle 6,814 6,814 6,814 8,163 21,120 33,615 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 264 264 264 -417 602 9,350 

Combustion Turbine 4,781 4,781 4,781 4,781 4,781 10,473 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 156 156 156 156 -67 -5,829 

Biomass 0 0 349 815 1,570 2,099 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 0 0 0 -163 0 0 

Landfill Gas 1,314 1,314 1,314 1,314 1,625 1,625 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 73 73 73 73 73 30 

Wind 5,843 5,843 5,843 5,863 5,985 6,529 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 690 690 690 670 246 246 

National Total 18,752 18,752 58,426 71,214 112,321 159,185 

difference wrt MARAMA Base Case 1,183 1,183 2,424 6,265 6,074 5,683 
18

D. Limitations of Analysis 

MARAMA modeling using IPM is based on various economic and engineering input 

assumptions that are inherently uncertain, such as assumptions for future fuel prices, electricity 

demand growth and the cost and performance of control technologies. As configured, IPM does 

not take into account demand response (i.e., consumer reaction to changes in electricity prices). 
19

Appendix 1: Summary of Changes to EPA Base Case v2.1.9 by Vistas 

The EPA Base Case v.2.1.9 was developed by ICF under the direction of the U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency (EPA). It serves as the starting point for the analysis presented in this report. 

Subsequent to its release the VISTAS Regional Planning Organization initiated a two-phase study using 

IPM. Starting with the EPA 2.1.9 as a base, VISTAS, along with study participants from CENRAP and 

LADCO RPOs, made several changes to the underlying datasets and modeling assumptions. The starting 

point for the MARAMA analyses discussed in this report was work from the VISTAS study as modeled in 

the run VISTASII_PC_1f. 

VISTAS and its workgroup initiated a review of NEEDS and recommended a large number of changes to 

the data. This occurred in two phases. In addition to unit level changes, VISTAS and its workgroup made 

a number of global changes that are reflected in this case. These are briefly described below: 

• Demand forecast were changed to reflect unadjusted EIA AEO 2005 national electricity and 

peak demand values. 

• AEO 2005 data was used for all assumptions regarding new builds of conventional 

technologies. The cost and performance assumptions for these units were as per the AEO 

2005 documentation, while assumptions for renewable capacity were the same as those 

used in the EPA Base Case 2004 v.2.1.9. 

• For nuclear units, the cost of continued operation was updated to approximately $27 per 

kilowatt-year based on AEO 2005. 

• Hardwired Duke Power and Progress Energy control technology investment strategies for 

complying with the North Carolina Clean Smoke Stacks rule. 

• The renewable portfolio standards (RPS) is modeled based on the most recent RGGI 

documentation using a single RPS region for Massachusetts (MA), Rhode Island (RI), New 

York (NY), New Jersey (NJ), Maryland (MD) and Connecticut (CT). The RPS requirements 

within these states can be met by renewable generation from New England, New York and 

PJM. EPA Base Case 2004 v.2.1.9 methodology and EIA AEO 2004 projected renewable 

builds were used for the rest of the regions. 

• The run years used were 2008 (2007-2008), 2009 (2009), 2012 (2010-2013), 2015 (2014-

2017), 2018 (2018), 2020 (2019-2022), and 2026 (2023-2030). 

• The Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) was modeled. 
20

Appendix 2: MANE-VU IPM Global Parameter Decisions 

This section summarizes the decisions as made by MANE-VU for global assumptions to be used in EGU 

forecasting with IPM as part of the VISTAS analysis. These decisions and changes are made to EPA 

Base Case version 2.1.9 assumptions. 

A. Market Assumptions 

1. National Electricity and Peak Demand 

Decision: Use unadjusted EIA AEO 2005 national electricity and peak demand values. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

2. Regional Electricity and Demand Breakout 

Decision: Use the existing IPM region breakdown as conducted in earlier modeling. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

3. Natural Gas Supply Curve and Price Forecast 

Decision: Use fuel supply curves and fuel price forecasts from IPM version 2.1.9. These are the same 

 fuel price forecasts and supply curve assumptions used in EPA’s latest CAIR runs. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. See e-mail from 

Megan Schuster dated 7/5/05.) 

4. Oil Price Forecast 

Decision: Use fuel supply curves and fuel price forecasts from IPM version 2.1.9. These are the same 

 fuel price forecasts and supply curve assumptions used in EPA’s latest CAIR runs. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. See e-mail from 

Meagan Schuster dated 7/5/05.) 

5. Coal Supply and Price Forecast 

Decision: Use fuel supply curves and fuel price forecasts from IPM version 2.1.9. These are the same 

 fuel price forecasts and supply curve assumptions used in EPA’s latest CAIR runs. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. See e-mail from 

Megan Schuster dated 7/1/05.) 

 

B. Technical Assumptions 

1. Firmly Planned Capacity Assumptions 

Decision: Use revisions and new data as provided by RPOs and stakeholders. 

Decision: Allow NC Clean Smokestacks 2009 data as provided to define “must run” units. 

(These are the same as the assumptions used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

2. Pollution Control Retrofit Cost and Performance [SO2, NOx, Hg] 

Decision: Retain pollution control retrofit cost and performance values. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

3. New Conventional Capacity cost and performance assumptions 

Decision: Use EIA AEO 2005 cost and performance assumptions for new conventional capacity. 

Decision: Retain existing 2.1.9 framework cost and performance for new renewable capacity. 

Decision: Exclude constraint on new capacity type builds (i.e., no new coal). 

(These are the same as the assumptions used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

4. SO2 Title IV Allowance Bank 
21

Decision: Use existing SO2 allowance bank value (4.99 million tons) for 2007. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

5. Nuclear Re-licensing and Uprate 

Decision: Use existing IPM configuration with updated EIA AEO 2005 (~$27/kW) incurrence cost for 

continued operation. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

C. Strategy Assumptions 

1. Clear Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) 

Decision: Include CAMR in future rounds of IPM modeling. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

2. Renewable Portfolio Standards 

Decision: Model RPS based on the most recent RGGI documentation using a single RPS region for MA, 

RI, NY, NJ, MD and CT. The RPS requirements within these states can be met by renewable generation 

from New England, New York and PJM. EPA 2.1.9 methodology and hardwired EIA AEO 2004 projected 

renewable builds for the remainder of the country. 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

D. Other Assumptions

1. Run Years 

Decision: Parsed output data will be provided for 2009, 2012 and 2018. 

 Run years to 2008, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2026. 

 (Run Year 2008 [2007-2008], Run Year 2009 [2009], Run Year 2012 [2010-2013], 

 Run Year 2015 [2014-2017], Run Year 2018 [2018], Run Year 2020 [2019-2022] and 

 Run Year 2026 [2023-2030] 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 

 

2. Canadian Sources 

Decision: Utilize existing v.2.1.9 configuration (no Canadian site specific sources). 

(This is the same as the assumption used by VISTAS, MRPO, and CENRAP. 

See 5/11/05 Inter-RPO IPM Global Decisions memo.) 
22

Appendix 3: Detailed Assumptions Used in MARAMA analysis 

 Table A.3.1 shows the run year configuration used in the MARAMA Base Case and Policy Case. 

 

 Table A.3.1 Run Year Configuration 

Run Year Calendar Years 

2008 2007-2008 

2009 2009-2009 

2010 2010-2011 

2012 2012-2012 

2015 2013-2017 

2018 2018-2018 

2020 2019-2022 

2026 2023-2030 
23

Table A3.2 shows the natural gas prices used in the MARAMA analysis. These supply curves are based 

on ICF’s NANGAS model. 

Table A3.2 Natural Gas Supply Curve in the MARAMA Analysis 

Year 

Price 

(1999$/MMBtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) 

Total gas supply 

(TBtu) 

Gas supply to electric 

sector (TBtu) 

2008 3.50 20987 21160 173 

2008 3.63 20734 21230 496 

2008 3.78 20493 21300 807 

2008 3.91 20264 21360 1096 

2008 4.05 20045 21420 1375 

2008 4.19 19836 21480 1644 

2008 4.32 19635 21540 1905 

2008 4.47 19443 21600 2157 

2008 4.60 19258 21660 2402 

2008 4.75 19080 21710 2630 

2008 4.88 18909 21760 2851 

2008 5.01 18744 21810 3066 

2008 5.16 18585 21860 3275 

2008 5.29 18432 21910 3478 

2008 5.44 18284 21960 3676 

2008 5.57 18141 22010 3869 

2008 5.71 18002 22060 4058 

2008 5.85 17868 22100 4232 

2008 5.98 17738 22140 4402 

2008 6.12 17612 22180 4568 

2008 6.26 17489 22220 4731 

2008 6.40 17370 22260 4890 

2008 6.54 17254 22300 5046 

2008 6.67 17141 22340 5199 

2008 6.81 17031 22380 5349 

2008 6.95 16924 22420 5496 

2008 7.09 16820 22460 5640 

2008 7.23 16719 22500 5781 

2008 7.36 16620 22540 5920 

2008 7.50 16524 22570 6046 

2008 7.64 16430 22600 6170 

2008 7.78 16338 22630 6292 

2008 7.92 16248 22660 6412 

2008 8.06 16160 22690 6530 

2008 8.19 16074 22720 6646 

2008 8.33 15990 22750 6760 

2008 8.47 15908 22780 6872 

2008 8.61 15828 22810 6982 

2008 8.75 15749 22840 7091 

2008 8.88 15672 22870 7198 

2008 9.02 15596 22900 7304 

2008 9.16 15522 22930 7408 

2008 9.30 15449 22960 7511 

2008 9.44 15378 22990 7612 

2008 9.57 15308 23020 7712 
24

Year 

Price 

(1999$/MMBtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) 

Total gas supply 

(TBtu) 

Gas supply to electric 

sector (TBtu) 

2008 9.72 15239 23050 7811 

2009 3.22 21520 22270 750 

2009 3.36 21235 22340 1105 

2009 3.50 20965 22410 1445 

2009 3.63 20709 22480 1771 

2009 3.78 20465 22540 2075 

2009 3.91 20233 22600 2367 

2009 4.05 20011 22660 2649 

2009 4.19 19799 22720 2921 

2009 4.32 19596 22780 3184 

2009 4.47 19401 22830 3429 

2009 4.60 19214 22880 3666 

2009 4.75 19034 22930 3896 

2009 4.88 18861 22980 4119 

2009 5.01 18695 23030 4335 

2009 5.16 18535 23080 4545 

2009 5.29 18380 23130 4750 

2009 5.44 18230 23180 4950 

2009 5.57 18085 23220 5135 

2009 5.71 17945 23260 5315 

2009 5.85 17809 23300 5491 

2009 5.98 17677 23340 5663 

2009 6.12 17549 23380 5831 

2009 6.26 17425 23420 5995 

2009 6.40 17305 23460 6155 

2009 6.54 17188 23500 6312 

2009 6.67 17074 23540 6466 

2009 6.81 16963 23580 6617 

2009 6.95 16855 23620 6765 

2009 7.09 16750 23660 6910 

2009 7.23 16648 23690 7042 

2009 7.36 16548 23720 7172 

2009 7.50 16451 23750 7299 

2009 7.64 16356 23780 7424 

2009 7.78 16263 23810 7547 

2009 7.92 16172 23840 7668 

2009 8.06 16083 23870 7787 

2009 8.19 15996 23900 7904 

2009 8.33 15911 23930 8019 

2009 8.47 15828 23960 8132 

2009 8.61 15747 23990 8243 

2009 8.75 15668 24020 8352 

2009 8.88 15590 24050 8460 

2009 9.02 15514 24080 8566 

2009 9.16 15439 24110 8671 

2009 9.30 15366 24140 8774 

2009 9.44 15294 24170 8876 

2009 9.57 15224 24200 8976 

2009 9.72 15155 24230 9075 
25

Year 

Price 

(1999$/MMBtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) 

Total gas supply 

(TBtu) 

Gas supply to electric 

sector (TBtu) 

2010 3.22 21688 23220 1532 

2010 3.36 21387 23300 1913 

2010 3.50 21102 23370 2268 

2010 3.63 20832 23440 2608 

2010 3.78 20575 23510 2935 

2010 3.91 20330 23580 3250 

2010 4.05 20097 23640 3543 

2010 4.19 19874 23700 3826 

2010 4.32 19661 23760 4099 

2010 4.47 19457 23820 4363 

2010 4.60 19261 23880 4619 

2010 4.75 19073 23940 4867 

2010 4.88 18892 23990 5098 

2010 5.01 18717 24040 5323 

2010 5.16 18549 24090 5541 

2010 5.29 18387 24140 5753 

2010 5.44 18230 24190 5960 

2010 5.57 18078 24240 6162 

2010 5.71 17931 24290 6359 

2010 5.85 17789 24340 6551 

2010 5.98 17651 24390 6739 

2010 6.12 17518 24430 6912 

2010 6.26 17388 24470 7082 

2010 6.40 17262 24510 7248 

2010 6.54 17140 24550 7410 

2010 6.67 17021 24590 7569 

2010 6.81 16905 24630 7725 

2010 6.95 16793 24670 7877 

2010 7.09 16683 24710 8027 

2010 7.23 16576 24750 8174 

2010 7.36 16472 24790 8318 

2010 7.50 16371 24830 8459 

2010 7.64 16272 24870 8598 

2010 7.78 16175 24910 8735 

2010 7.92 16081 24940 8859 

2010 8.06 15989 24970 8981 

2010 8.19 15899 25000 9101 

2010 8.33 15811 25030 9219 

2010 8.47 15725 25060 9335 

2010 8.61 15641 25090 9449 

2010 8.75 15558 25120 9562 

2010 8.88 15477 25150 9673 

2010 9.02 15398 25180 9782 

2010 9.16 15320 25210 9890 

2010 9.30 15244 25240 9996 

2010 9.44 15169 25270 10101 

2010 9.57 15096 25300 10204 

2010 9.72 15024 25330 10306 

2012 3.22 22121 24260 2139 
26

Year 

Price 

(1999$/MMBtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) 

Total gas supply 

(TBtu) 

Gas supply to electric 

sector (TBtu) 

2012 3.36 21813 24350 2537 

2012 3.50 21522 24430 2908 

2012 3.63 21246 24510 3264 

2012 3.78 20983 24590 3607 

2012 3.91 20733 24670 3937 

2012 4.05 20494 24740 4246 

2012 4.19 20266 24810 4544 

2012 4.32 20048 24880 4832 

2012 4.47 19839 24950 5111 

2012 4.60 19638 25020 5382 

2012 4.75 19445 25080 5635 

2012 4.88 19259 25140 5881 

2012 5.01 19080 25200 6120 

2012 5.16 18908 25260 6352 

2012 5.29 18742 25320 6578 

2012 5.44 18582 25380 6798 

2012 5.57 18427 25430 7003 

2012 5.71 18277 25480 7203 

2012 5.85 18132 25530 7398 

2012 5.98 17991 25580 7589 

2012 6.12 17854 25630 7776 

2012 6.26 17722 25680 7958 

2012 6.40 17593 25730 8137 

2012 6.54 17468 25780 8312 

2012 6.67 17346 25830 8484 

2012 6.81 17228 25880 8652 

2012 6.95 17113 25920 8807 

2012 7.09 17001 25960 8959 

2012 7.23 16892 26000 9108 

2012 7.36 16786 26040 9254 

2012 7.50 16682 26080 9398 

2012 7.64 16581 26120 9539 

2012 7.78 16482 26160 9678 

2012 7.92 16385 26200 9815 

2012 8.06 16291 26240 9949 

2012 8.19 16199 26280 10081 

2012 8.33 16109 26320 10211 

2012 8.47 16021 26360 10339 

2012 8.61 15935 26400 10465 

2012 8.75 15851 26440 10589 

2012 8.88 15768 26480 10712 

2012 9.02 15687 26520 10833 

2012 9.16 15608 26550 10942 

2012 9.30 15530 26580 11050 

2012 9.44 15454 26610 11156 

2012 9.57 15379 26640 11261 

2012 9.72 15306 26670 11364 

2015 3.22 22107 25450 3343 

2015 3.36 21844 25540 3696 
27

Year 

Price 

(1999$/MMBtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) 

Total gas supply 

(TBtu) 

Gas supply to electric 

sector (TBtu) 

2015 3.50 21595 25620 4025 

2015 3.63 21358 25700 4342 

2015 3.78 21132 25780 4648 

2015 3.91 20917 25850 4933 

2015 4.05 20711 25920 5209 

2015 4.19 20514 25990 5476 

2015 4.32 20325 26060 5735 

2015 4.47 20144 26130 5986 

2015 4.60 19970 26190 6220 

2015 4.75 19802 26250 6448 

2015 4.88 19641 26310 6669 

2015 5.01 19485 26370 6885 

2015 5.16 19335 26430 7095 

2015 5.29 19190 26490 7300 

2015 5.44 19050 26540 7490 

2015 5.57 18914 26590 7676 

2015 5.71 18782 26640 7858 

2015 5.85 18654 26690 8036 

2015 5.98 18530 26740 8210 

2015 6.12 18410 26790 8380 

2015 6.26 18293 26840 8547 

2015 6.40 18180 26890 8710 

2015 6.54 18070 26940 8870 

2015 6.67 17963 26980 9017 

2015 6.81 17858 27020 9162 

2015 6.95 17756 27060 9304 

2015 7.09 17657 27100 9443 

2015 7.23 17560 27140 9580 

2015 7.36 17466 27180 9714 

2015 7.50 17374 27220 9846 

2015 7.64 17284 27260 9976 

2015 7.78 17196 27300 10104 

2015 7.92 17110 27340 10230 

2015 8.06 17026 27380 10354 

2015 8.19 16944 27420 10476 

2015 8.33 16863 27460 10597 

2015 8.47 16784 27500 10716 

2015 8.61 16707 27540 10833 

2015 8.75 16631 27570 10939 

2015 8.88 16557 27600 11043 

2015 9.02 16484 27630 11146 

2015 9.16 16413 27660 11247 

2015 9.30 16343 27690 11347 

2015 9.44 16274 27720 11446 

2015 9.57 16207 27750 11543 

2015 9.72 16141 27780 11639 

2018 3.22 23169 26880 3711 

2018 3.36 22871 27010 4139 

2018 3.50 22589 27130 4541 
28

Year 

Price 

(1999$/MMBtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) 

Total gas supply 

(TBtu) 

Gas supply to electric 

sector (TBtu) 

2018 3.63 22321 27250 4929 

2018 3.78 22066 27360 5294 

2018 3.91 21823 27470 5647 

2018 4.05 21591 27580 5989 

2018 4.19 21369 27680 6311 

2018 4.32 21156 27780 6624 

2018 4.47 20952 27880 6928 

2018 4.60 20756 27980 7224 

2018 4.75 20568 28070 7502 

2018 4.88 20387 28160 7773 

2018 5.01 20212 28250 8038 

2018 5.16 20044 28340 8296 

2018 5.29 19881 28420 8539 

2018 5.44 19724 28500 8776 

2018 5.57 19572 28580 9008 

2018 5.71 19425 28660 9235 

2018 5.85 19282 28740 9458 

2018 5.98 19144 28820 9676 

2018 6.12 19010 28890 9880 

2018 6.26 18880 28960 10080 

2018 6.40 18753 29030 10277 

2018 6.54 18630 29100 10470 

2018 6.67 18510 29170 10660 

2018 6.81 18394 29240 10846 

2018 6.95 18281 29310 11029 

2018 7.09 18170 29380 11210 

2018 7.23 18062 29440 11378 

2018 7.36 17957 29500 11543 

2018 7.50 17854 29560 11706 

2018 7.64 17754 29620 11866 

2018 7.78 17656 29680 12024 

2018 7.92 17560 29740 12180 

2018 8.06 17467 29800 12333 

2018 8.19 17376 29860 12484 

2018 8.33 17287 29920 12633 

2018 8.47 17200 29980 12780 

2018 8.61 17114 30030 12916 

2018 8.75 17030 30080 13050 

2018 8.88 16948 30130 13182 

2018 9.02 16868 30180 13312 

2018 9.16 16789 30230 13441 

2018 9.30 16712 30280 13568 

2018 9.44 16636 30330 13694 

2018 9.57 16562 30380 13818 

2018 9.72 16489 30430 13941 

2020 3.22 23815 26120 2305 

2020 3.36 23496 26280 2784 

2020 3.50 23194 26440 3246 

2020 3.63 22907 26590 3683 
29

Year 

Price 

(1999$/MMBtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) 

Total gas supply 

(TBtu) 

Gas supply to electric 

sector (TBtu) 

2020 3.78 22634 26740 4106 

2020 3.91 22374 26880 4506 

2020 4.05 22126 27020 4894 

2020 4.19 21889 27150 5261 

2020 4.32 21662 27280 5618 

2020 4.47 21445 27410 5965 

2020 4.60 21236 27530 6294 

2020 4.75 21035 27650 6615 

2020 4.88 20842 27770 6928 

2020 5.01 20656 27880 7224 

2020 5.16 20477 27990 7513 

2020 5.29 20304 28100 7796 

2020 5.44 20137 28210 8073 

2020 5.57 19975 28310 8335 

2020 5.71 19818 28410 8592 

2020 5.85 19666 28510 8844 

2020 5.98 19519 28610 9091 

2020 6.12 19376 28710 9334 

2020 6.26 19238 28800 9562 

2020 6.40 19104 28890 9786 

2020 6.54 18973 28980 10007 

2020 6.67 18846 29070 10224 

2020 6.81 18722 29160 10438 

2020 6.95 18602 29250 10648 

2020 7.09 18485 29340 10855 

2020 7.23 18371 29420 11049 

2020 7.36 18260 29500 11240 

2020 7.50 18151 29580 11429 

2020 7.64 18045 29660 11615 

2020 7.78 17941 29740 11799 

2020 7.92 17840 29820 11980 

2020 8.06 17741 29900 12159 

2020 8.19 17644 29980 12336 

2020 8.33 17550 30050 12500 

2020 8.47 17458 30120 12662 

2020 8.61 17368 30190 12822 

2020 8.75 17279 30260 12981 

2020 8.88 17192 30330 13138 

2020 9.02 17107 30400 13293 

2020 9.16 17024 30470 13446 

2020 9.30 16942 30540 13598 

2020 9.44 16862 30610 13748 

2020 9.57 16783 30680 13897 

2020 9.72 16706 30750 14044 
30

Table A3.3 shows the fuel oil prices used in the MARAMA analysis. These prices based on AEO 2006. 

Table A3.3 Residual and Distillate Fuel Oil Prices (1999$/MMBtu) 

 Residual Oil Distillate Oil 

Year MAAC New England MAAC New England 

2008 5.13 4.41 8.63 8.69 

2009 5.00 4.13 8.30 8.38 

2010 4.88 3.87 7.98 8.05 

2012 4.75 3.83 8.06 8.12 

2015 4.75 3.77 7.90 7.96 

2018 5.03 3.90 8.27 8.33 

2020 5.06 3.98 8.41 8.47 

Source: AEO 2006 

Table A3.4 summarizes the cumulative SCR and scrubber feasibility limits that were implemented in the 

years 2008, 2009 and 2010. These limits are based on projections of planned installations.

Table A3.4 SCR and Scrubber Feasibility Limits 

Year SCR (GW) Scrubbers (GW) 

2008 9 31 

2009 15 51 

2010 No Limit 69 
31

Tables A3.5a and 3.5b show the list of CAVR eligible sources for SO2 and NOx requirements.

Table A3.5a CAVR SO2 Requirements: All CAVR eligible, unscrubbed, non CAIR and non WRAP 

affected sources larger than 200 MW 

Unique ID Plant Name State 

6138_B_1 Flint Creek Arkansas 

6641_B_1 Independence Arkansas 

6009_B_1 White Bluff Arkansas 

6009_B_2 White Bluff Arkansas 

469_B_4 Cherokee Colorado 

470_B_1 Comanche Colorado 

470_B_2 Comanche Colorado 

6248_B_1 Pawnee Colorado 

8219_B_1 Rray d Nixon Colorado 

568_B_BHB3 Bridgeport Harbor Connecticut 

1241_B_2 La Cygne Kansas 

6064_B_N1 Nearman Creek Kansas 

1619_B_1 Brayton Point Massachusetts 

1619_B_2 Brayton Point Massachusetts 

1619_B_3 Brayton Point Massachusetts 

2817_B_1 leland Olds North Dakota 

2817_B_2 leland Olds North Dakota 

2823_B_B1 Milton R Young North Dakota 

6077_B_1 Gerald Gentleman Nebraska 

6077_B_2 Gerald Gentleman Nebraska 

6096_B_1 Nebraska City Nebraska 

2291_B_5 North Omaha Nebraska 

2364_B_2 Merrimack New Hampshire 

8224_B_1 North Valmy Nevada 

2952_B_4 Muskogee Oklahoma 

2952_B_5 Muskogee Oklahoma 

2963_B_3313 Northeastern Oklahoma 

2963_B_3314 Northeastern Oklahoma 

6095_B_1 Sooner Oklahoma 

6095_B_2 Sooner Oklahoma 

6098_B_1 Big Stone South Dakota 
32

Table A3.5b CAVR NOX Requirements: CAVR eligible, non CAIR affected sources larger than 200 

MW 

Unique ID Plant Name State 

6138_B_1 Flint Creek Arkansas 

6641_B_1 Independence Arkansas 

6009_B_1 White Bluff Arkansas 

6009_B_2 White Bluff Arkansas 

113_B_2 Cholla Arizona 

113_B_3 Cholla Arizona 

113_B_4 Cholla Arizona 

6177_B_U1B Coronado Arizona 

6177_B_U2B Coronado Arizona 

4941_B_1 Navajo Arizona 

4941_B_2 Navajo Arizona 

4941_B_3 Navajo Arizona 

469_B_4 Cherokee Colorado 

470_B_1 Comanche Colorado 

470_B_2 Comanche Colorado 

6021_B_C1 Craig Colorado 

6021_B_C2 Craig Colorado 

525_B_H2 Hayden Colorado 

6248_B_1 Pawnee Colorado 

8219_B_1 Ray D Nixon Colorado 

568_B_BHB3 Bridgeport Harbor Connecticut 

6068_B_1 Jeffrey Energy Center Kansas 

6068_B_2 Jeffrey Energy Center Kansas 

1241_B_1 La Cygne Kansas 

1241_B_2 La Cygne Kansas 

1250_B_5 Lawrence Kansas 

6064_B_N1 Nearman Creek Kansas 

1619_B_1 Brayton Point Massachusetts 

1619_B_2 Brayton Point Massachusetts 

1619_B_3 Brayton Point Massachusetts 

6076_B_1 Colstrip Montana 

6076_B_2 Colstrip Montana 

6030_B_1 Coal Creek North Dakota 

6030_B_2 Coal Creek North Dakota 

2817_B_1 Leland Olds North Dakota 

2817_B_2 Leland Olds North Dakota 

2823_B_B1 Milton R Young North Dakota 

2823_B_B2 Milton R Young North Dakota 

6077_B_1 Gerald Gentleman Nebraska 

6077_B_2 Gerald Gentleman Nebraska 

6096_B_1 Nebraska City Nebraska 

2291_B_5 North Omaha Nebraska 

2364_B_2 Merrimack New Hampshire 

2442_B_3 Four Corners New Mexico 

2442_B_4 Four Corners New Mexico 

2442_B_5 Four Corners New Mexico 

2451_B_1 San Juan New Mexico 

2451_B_2 San Juan New Mexico 
33

Unique ID Plant Name State 

2451_B_3 San Juan New Mexico 

2451_B_4 San Juan New Mexico 

2341_B_1 Mohave Nevada 

2341_B_2 Mohave Nevada 

8224_B_1 North Valmy Nevada 

2952_B_4 Muskogee Oklahoma 

2952_B_5 Muskogee Oklahoma 

2963_B_3313 Northeastern Oklahoma 

2963_B_3314 Northeastern Oklahoma 

6095_B_1 Sooner Oklahoma 

6095_B_2 Sooner Oklahoma 

6106_B_1SG Boardman Oregon 

6098_B_1 Big Stone South Dakota 

6165_B_1 Hunter (Emery) Utah 

6165_B_2 Hunter (Emery) Utah 

8069_B_1 Huntington Utah 

8069_B_2 Huntington Utah 

3845_B_BW21 Centralia Washington 

3845_B_BW22 Centralia Washington 

4158_B_BW43 Dave Johnston Wyoming 

4158_B_BW44 Dave Johnston Wyoming 

8066_B_BW71 Jim Bridger Wyoming 

8066_B_BW72 Jim Bridger Wyoming 

8066_B_BW73 Jim Bridger Wyoming 

8066_B_BW74 Jim Bridger Wyoming 

6204_B_1 Laramie River Wyoming 

6204_B_2 Laramie River Wyoming 

6204_B_3 Laramie River Wyoming 

4162_B_2 Naughton Wyoming 

4162_B_3 Naughton Wyoming 

6101_B_BW91 Wyodak Wyoming 

Title IV SO2 bank – In order to capture the dynamics of the SO2 allowance market pre 2007, MARAMA 

has implemented a Title IV SO2 allowance bank of 6.43 million tons, going into the year 2007. 
Tables A3.6 and A3.7 show the national regulations modeled in the MARAMA base case and policy cases respectively, alo

regarding affected units, policy structure and amount of allowances. Table A3.6 Trading and Banking Rules in the MARAMA Base Case 

 Title IV SO2 CAIR Annual NOx CAIR Ozone Season NOx CAVR Rule – SO2 CAVR R

Coverage All Fossil units >25 MW All Fossil units >25 MW * All Fossil units >25 MW ** 

All Coal, CAVR Eligible, 

Non CAIR Unscrubbed 

and Non WRAP > 200 

MW *** 

All Coal & C

Outside CA

Timing Annual Annual Ozone Season (May – 

September) 

Annual An

Size of Initial Bank 6,437 thousand tons 

starting in 2007 

The bank starting in 2009 is assumed to be zero. 

The bank starting in 2007 is assumed to be zero. 

N/A N

Policy Structure 

Trading and Banking allowed 

Trading and Banking allowed 

Trading and Banking allowed 

No Trading or banking No Trading o

Rules Total Allowances (thousand tons except for CAMR is in tons) 

2007-2009: 9,470 2010-2030: 8,950 

2009: 1,722 2010-2014: 1,522 2015-2030: 1,268 

2007-2008: 4971

2009-2014: 568 2015-2030: 485 

N/A N

Total Allowances Pre 2007 Bank Less NSR and North Carolina SO2 Allowance 

Retirements (thousand tons) 

2007: 15,805 2008: 9,350 2009: 9,280 2010-2012: 8,813 2013-2030: 8,611 

2009: 1,722 2010-2014: 1,522 2015-2030: 1,268 

2007-2008: 4971

2009-2014: 568 2015-2030: 485 

N/A N

Non Cap and Trade Policy Specifications 

N/A N/A N/A 0.15 lbs/MMBtu 

Combustion 

units >200M

on cyclon

Retirement Ratio 

2010: 2.0 2012: 2.0 2015: 2.52 2018: 2.86 

2009-2030: 1.0 2007-2030: 1.0 N/A N

* CAIR Region States: Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, 

North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, Delaware.

** CAIR Ozone Season States: Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisian

Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Wis

*** WRAP States: Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming 1. SIP Call 
35

 Table A3.7 Trading and Banking Rules in the MARAMA Policy Case 

Title IV SO2 MARAMA CAIR Plus - Annual NOx MARAMA SIP Call and CAIR Plus - Ozone season NOx CAVR Rule – SO2 

Coverage All Fossil units >25 MW All Fossil units >25 MW * All Fossil units >25 MW ** All Coal, CAVR Eligible, 

Non CAIR Unscrubbed and Non WRAP > 200 MW *** 

Timing Annual Annual Ozone Season (May – 

September) 

Annual 

Size of Initial Bank 6,437 thousand tons 

starting in 2007 

The bank starting in 2009 is assumed to be zero. 

The bank starting in 2007 is assumed to be zero. 

N/A 

Policy Structure Trading and Banking 

allowed 

Trading and Banking allowed Trading and Banking allowed No Trading or banking 

Rules Total Allowances (thousand tons except for CAMR is in Tons) 

2007-2009: 9,470 2010-2030: 8,950 

2009: 1,553 2010-2011: 1,353 2012-2014: 902 2015-2030: 829 

2007-2008: 4971

2009-2011: 623 2012-2014: 416 2015-2030: 382 

N/A 

Total Allowances Pre 2007 Bank Less NSR and North Carolina SO2 Allowance 

Retirements (thousand tons) 

2007: 15,805 2008: 9,350 2009: 9,280 2010-2012: 8,813 2013-2030: 8,611 

2009: 1,553 2010-2011: 1,353 2012-2014: 902 2015-2030: 829 

2007-2008: 4971

2009-2011: 623 2012-2014: 416 2015-2030: 382 

N/A 

Non Cap and Trade Policy Specifications 

N/A N/A N/A 0.15 lbs/MMBtu 

Retirement Ratio 

2010: 2.5 2012: 2.94 2015: 3.32 2018: 4.16 

2009-2030: 1.0 2007-2030: 1.0 N/A 

* CAIR Plus Policy States: Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, MississipOhio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode ** CAIR Ozone Season States: Alabama, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, MMissouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin. *** WRAP States: Arizona, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming 1. SIP Call 
Appendix 4: Comparison of Assumptions Used in VISTAS and MARAMA analysis 

Table 4.1 Differences in assumptions between the VISTAS and MARAMA projects. 

Parameter VISTAS MARAMA 

Run Years 2007,2010,2015,2020,2026 2008,2009, 2010,2012,2015,2018,2020,2026 

Gas Supply Curve EPA Base Case v.2.19 (see table 

below) 

EPA Base Case v.3.0 (refer to table A3.2 in 

Appendix 3.) 

Fuel Oil Prices AEO 2004 (See table below) AEO 2006 (Refer to table A3.3 in Appendix 3) 

SCR and Scrubber 

Feasibility Limits 

No limits applied in 2008, 2009 and 

2010 

Limits applied in 2008, 2009 and 2010. (Refer to 

table A3.4 in Appendix 3) 

Clean Air Visibility Rule Not modeled Implemented the CAVR rule for SO2 and NOX 

Title IV SO2 Bank (2007) 4.98 million tons 6.43 million tons 
37

Table A4.2: Natural Gas Supply Curve Used in VISTAS Run 

Year Price (1999$/Mmbtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) Total gas supply (TBtu) 

Gas supply to power 

sector (TBtu) 

2007 2.75 19411 23560 4149 

2007 2.80 19314 23580 4266 

2007 2.85 19220 23600 4380 

2007 2.90 19128 23620 4492 

2007 2.95 19038 23640 4602 

2007 3.00 18950 23660 4710 

2007 3.05 18863 23680 4817 

2007 3.10 18778 23700 4922 

2007 3.15 18695 23720 5025 

2007 3.20 18614 23730 5116 

2007 3.25 18534 23740 5206 

2007 3.26 18514 23740 5226 

2007 3.30 18457 23790 5333 

2007 3.35 18378 23800 5422 

2007 3.40 18299 23810 5511 

2007 3.44 18243 23820 5577 

2007 3.45 18224 23820 5596 

2007 3.50 18157 23830 5673 

2007 3.55 18090 23840 5750 

2007 3.57 18066 23840 5774 

2007 3.60 18021 23850 5829 

2007 3.65 17952 23860 5908 

2007 3.70 17884 23870 5986 

2007 3.75 17818 23880 6062 

2007 3.80 17753 23890 6137 

2007 3.85 17689 23900 6211 

2007 3.90 17626 23910 6284 

2007 3.95 17564 23920 6356 

2007 4.00 17503 23930 6427 

2007 4.05 17443 23940 6497 

2007 4.10 17384 23950 6566 

2007 4.15 17326 23960 6634 

2007 4.20 17269 23970 6701 

2007 4.25 17212 23980 6768 

2007 4.30 17156 23990 6834 

2007 4.35 17101 24000 6899 

2007 4.40 17047 24010 6963 

2007 4.45 16994 24020 7026 

2007 4.50 16941 24030 7089 

2007 4.55 16889 24040 7151 

2007 4.60 16838 24050 7212 

2007 4.65 16788 24060 7272 

2007 4.70 16738 24070 7332 

2007 4.75 16689 24080 7391 

2007 4.80 16641 24090 7449 

2007 4.85 16593 24100 7507 

2007 4.90 16546 24110 7564 

2007 4.95 16500 24120 7620 
38

Year Price (1999$/Mmbtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) Total gas supply (TBtu) 

Gas supply to power 

sector (TBtu) 

2007 5.00 16454 24130 7676 

2007 5.05 16409 24140 7731 

2007 5.10 16364 24150 7786 

2007 5.15 16320 24160 7840 

2007 5.20 16276 24170 7894 

2007 5.25 16233 24180 7947 

2007 5.30 16190 24190 8000 

2007 5.35 16148 24200 8052 

2007 5.40 16106 24210 8104 

2007 5.41 16064 24220 8156 

2010 2.75 19727 23780 4053 

2010 2.80 19621 23890 4269 

2010 2.85 19517 23990 4473 

2010 2.90 19415 24090 4675 

2010 2.95 19316 24190 4874 

2010 3.00 19219 24290 5071 

2010 3.05 19124 24390 5266 

2010 3.10 19031 24490 5459 

2010 3.15 18940 24590 5650 

2010 3.16 18916 24620 5704 

2010 3.20 18856 24850 5994 

2010 3.25 18766 24970 6204 

2010 3.29 18691 25070 6379 

2010 3.30 18678 25080 6402 

2010 3.35 18597 25130 6533 

2010 3.40 18516 25180 6664 

2010 3.45 18435 25230 6795 

2010 3.46 18411 25240 6829 

2010 3.50 18355 25300 6945 

2010 3.55 18277 25390 7113 

2010 3.60 18200 25480 7280 

2010 3.65 18125 25570 7445 

2010 3.70 18051 25660 7609 

2010 3.75 17978 25740 7762 

2010 3.80 17907 25820 7913 

2010 3.85 17837 25900 8063 

2010 3.90 17768 25980 8212 

2010 3.95 17700 26060 8360 

2010 4.00 17633 26140 8507 

2010 4.05 17567 26220 8653 

2010 4.10 17502 26300 8798 

2010 4.15 17438 26380 8942 

2010 4.20 17375 26460 9085 

2010 4.25 17313 26540 9227 

2010 4.30 17252 26620 9368 

2010 4.35 17192 26700 9508 

2010 4.40 17133 26770 9637 

2010 4.45 17075 26840 9765 

2010 4.50 17018 26910 9892 

2010 4.55 16962 26980 10018 
39

Year Price (1999$/Mmbtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) Total gas supply (TBtu) 

Gas supply to power 

sector (TBtu) 

2010 4.60 16906 27050 10144 

2010 4.65 16851 27120 10269 

2010 4.70 16797 27190 10393 

2010 4.75 16744 27260 10516 

2010 4.80 16691 27330 10639 

2010 4.85 16639 27400 10761 

2010 4.90 16588 27470 10882 

2010 4.95 16538 27540 11002 

2010 5.00 16488 27610 11122 

2010 5.05 16439 27680 11241 

2010 5.10 16390 27750 11360 

2010 5.15 16342 27820 11478 

2010 5.20 16295 27890 11595 

2010 5.25 16248 27960 11712 

2010 5.30 16202 28020 11818 

2010 5.35 16156 28080 11924 

2010 5.40 16111 28140 12029 

2010 5.41 16066 28200 12134 

2015 2.75 20148 24960 4812 

2015 2.80 20060 25140 5080 

2015 2.85 19974 25320 5346 

2015 2.90 19890 25500 5610 

2015 2.95 19808 25670 5862 

2015 3.00 19727 25840 6113 

2015 3.05 19648 26010 6362 

2015 3.08 19599 26120 6521 

2015 3.10 19569 26210 6641 

2015 3.15 19489 26460 6971 

2015 3.18 19442 26610 7168 

2015 3.20 19413 26680 7267 

2015 3.25 19343 26850 7507 

2015 3.30 19273 27020 7747 

2015 3.35 19203 27190 7987 

2015 3.39 19144 27330 8186 

2015 3.40 19134 27350 8216 

2015 3.45 19069 27480 8411 

2015 3.50 19004 27610 8606 

2015 3.55 18939 27740 8801 

2015 3.60 18874 27870 8996 

2015 3.65 18809 28000 9191 

2015 3.70 18744 28130 9386 

2015 3.70 18741 28140 9399 

2015 3.75 18683 28280 9597 

2015 3.80 18623 28430 9807 

2015 3.85 18564 28580 10016 

2015 3.90 18506 28730 10224 

2015 3.95 18449 28880 10431 

2015 4.00 18393 29020 10627 

2015 4.05 18338 29160 10822 

2015 4.10 18283 29300 11017 
40

Year Price (1999$/Mmbtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) Total gas supply (TBtu) 

Gas supply to power 

sector (TBtu) 

2015 4.15 18229 29440 11211 

2015 4.20 18176 29580 11404 

2015 4.25 18124 29720 11596 

2015 4.30 18073 29860 11787 

2015 4.35 18022 30000 11978 

2015 4.40 17972 30140 12168 

2015 4.45 17923 30280 12357 

2015 4.50 17874 30410 12536 

2015 4.55 17826 30540 12714 

2015 4.60 17779 30670 12891 

2015 4.65 17732 30800 13068 

2015 4.70 17686 30930 13244 

2015 4.75 17641 31060 13419 

2015 4.80 17596 31190 13594 

2015 4.85 17552 31320 13768 

2015 4.90 17508 31450 13942 

2015 4.95 17465 31580 14115 

2015 5.00 17422 31710 14288 

2015 5.05 17380 31840 14460 

2015 5.10 17338 31960 14622 

2015 5.15 17297 32080 14783 

2015 5.20 17256 32200 14944 

2015 5.25 17216 32320 15104 

2015 5.30 17176 32440 15264 

2015 5.35 17137 32560 15423 

2015 5.40 17098 32680 15582 

2020 2.75 20782 27560 6778 

2020 2.80 20695 27720 7025 

2020 2.85 20610 27870 7260 

2020 2.90 20527 28020 7493 

2020 2.95 20449 28160 7711 

2020 2.95 20445 28170 7725 

2020 3.00 20369 28320 7951 

2020 3.05 20293 28470 8177 

2020 3.10 20217 28620 8403 

2020 3.15 20141 28770 8629 

2020 3.20 20065 28920 8855 

2020 3.25 19989 29070 9081 

2020 3.29 19935 29180 9245 

2020 3.30 19914 29230 9316 

2020 3.35 19844 29400 9556 

2020 3.40 19774 29570 9796 

2020 3.45 19704 29740 10036 

2020 3.49 19646 29880 10234 

2020 3.50 19636 29900 10264 

2020 3.55 19577 30010 10433 

2020 3.60 19518 30120 10602 

2020 3.65 19459 30230 10771 

2020 3.70 19400 30340 10940 

2020 3.75 19341 30450 11109 
41

Year Price (1999$/Mmbtu) 

Non electric gas demand 

(TBtu) Total gas supply (TBtu) 

Gas supply to power 

sector (TBtu) 

2020 3.80 19282 30560 11278 

2020 3.85 19223 30670 11447 

2020 3.90 19164 30780 11616 

2020 3.95 19105 30890 11785 

2020 4.00 19046 31000 11954 

2020 4.02 19024 31040 12016 

2020 4.05 18990 31120 12130 

2020 4.10 18936 31240 12304 

2020 4.15 18883 31360 12477 

2020 4.20 18830 31480 12650 

2020 4.25 18778 31600 12822 

2020 4.30 18727 31720 12993 

2020 4.35 18677 31840 13163 

2020 4.40 18627 31950 13323 

2020 4.45 18578 32060 13482 

2020 4.50 18530 32170 13640 

2020 4.55 18482 32280 13798 

2020 4.60 18435 32390 13955 

2020 4.65 18389 32500 14111 

2020 4.70 18343 32610 14267 

2020 4.75 18298 32720 14422 

2020 4.80 18253 32830 14577 

2020 4.85 18209 32940 14731 

2020 4.90 18165 33050 14885 

2020 4.95 18122 33160 15038 

2020 5.00 18080 33270 15190 

2020 5.05 18038 33370 15332 

2020 5.10 17997 33470 15473 

 2020 5.15 17956 33570 15614 

2020 5.20 17916 33670 15754 

2020 5.25 17876 33770 15894 

2020 5.30 17837 33870 16033 

2020 5.35 17798 33970 16172 

2020 5.40 17759 34070 16311 

 
42

Table A4.3: Fuel Oil Prices Used in VISTAS Run 

High Sulfur Residual Oil Prices ($1999/MMBtu) 

IPM Region 

Year MACE New England 

2007 3.51 2.93 

2010 3.57 2.98 

2015 3.67 3.11 

2020 3.76 3.22 

Source: AEO 2004 

Low Sulfur Residual Oil Prices ($1999/MMBtu) 

IPM Region 

Year MACE New England 

2007 3.73 3.30 

2010 3.79 3.35 

2015 3.90 3.47 

2020 3.99 3.58 

Source: AEO 2004 

 

Distillate Oil Prices ($1999/MMBtu) 

IPM Region 

Year MACE New England 

2007 4.72 4.80 

2010 4.86 4.94 

2015 5.23 5.29 

2020 5.58 5.60 

Source: AEO 2004 
43

Appendix 5: Emission and Cost Results 

Tables A5.1- A5.3 present SO2 and NOx emissions from the MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus 

Policy Case runs by state in 2008, 2009, 2012, 2015 and 2018 run years. These emissions are from all units 

and include emissions from fossil and non-fossil units 

Tables A5.4- A5.8 present variable O&M costs, fixed O&M costs, annualized capital costs, fuel costs and total 

production costs from the MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case runs by state in 2008, 

2009, 2012, 2015 and 2018 run years. 

 
Table A5.1: State Level Annual SO2 Emissions in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (Thou

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

MANE-VU Connecticut 3.92 3.97 9.93 12.18 14.71 3.02 3.07 4.29 4.94 5.01 -0.90  Delaware 33.74 32.55 17.58 15.39 14.43 33.74 29.61 28.25 8.08 3.33 0.00 

District of Columbia 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.29 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.49 0.69 0.00 

 Maine 38.00 38.37 8.27 8.99 9.87 34.72 33.00 5.23 5.16 4.89 -3.27  Maryland 130.21 65.67 52.98 31.47 35.48 100.07 39.07 33.04 31.42 32.81 -30.13  Massachusetts 78.18 36.10 29.38 29.53 33.89 74.98 37.13 15.75 11.47 8.96 -3.19 

New Hampshire 7.66 7.66 11.88 13.38 15.17 7.66 4.97 3.38 3.17 3.27 0.00 

 New Jersey 26.56 25.85 28.02 26.43 23.32 26.23 25.89 26.67 23.82 16.93 -0.34  New York 124.38 121.50 102.95 90.74 85.54 110.99 105.26 76.55 72.32 66.51 -13.39  Pennsylvania 359.35 318.52 199.42 179.15 156.97 343.13 277.39 182.70 150.27 127.58 -16.22  Rhode Island 0.00 0.00 1.29 1.77 2.32 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.40 0.42 0.00  Vermont 0.06 0.06 0.87 1.16 1.51 0.06 0.06 0.22 0.31 0.32 0.00 MANE-VU Total 802.06 650.24 462.75 410.48 393.84 734.60 555.46 376.75 311.86 270.72 -67.45 LADCO Illinois 304.36 305.10 260.79 242.83 244.94 299.78 274.23 240.60 222.03 238.38 -4.59  Indiana 496.08 483.36 463.56 414.50 376.78 476.80 410.99 409.93 377.38 332.21 -19.28  Michigan 407.01 407.02 398.16 397.45 399.56 406.35 390.37 397.12 391.05 376.77 -0.66  Ohio 581.77 440.10 317.26 282.43 264.40 431.30 436.33 249.67 194.09 184.86 -150.4 Wisconsin 161.24 149.57 153.59 153.31 152.02 161.30 148.40 150.63 148.06 142.94 0.06 LADCO Total 1,950.46 1,785.15 1,593.35 1,490.51 1,437.70 1,775.52 1,660.32 1,447.95 1,332.62 1,275.15 -174.9VISTAS Alabama 357.18 332.19 286.09 253.71 217.58 336.53 264.83 219.62 185.76 158.36 -20.65  Florida 213.04 210.85 194.80 194.07 165.00 212.81 190.25 157.71 156.67 115.33 -0.22  Georgia 558.02 560.12 312.67 214.82 183.00 573.16 371.67 92.72 94.53 74.99 15.14  Kentucky 386.28 376.19 274.92 274.02 239.92 362.81 328.20 274.84 223.64 203.38 -23.47  Mississippi 82.21 70.23 85.73 27.87 23.15 81.55 62.58 25.44 23.13 24.60 -0.66  North Carolina 261.33 167.47 130.55 110.64 101.45 260.58 146.20 121.39 92.23 73.64 -0.74  South Carolina 184.15 171.26 119.43 115.66 114.30 162.00 138.43 119.59 91.30 63.08 -22.15  Tennessee 246.52 244.39 235.35 231.69 141.52 237.50 168.68 197.69 136.09 109.20 -9.03  Virginia 200.04 178.64 146.24 117.17 81.50 180.42 156.77 126.48 71.27 46.67 -19.62  West Virginia 390.89 390.67 195.44 150.00 130.75 289.42 221.84 126.03 115.98 122.55 -101.4VISTAS Total 2,879.64 2,702.01 1,981.22 1,689.66 1,398.18 2,696.77 2,049.45 1,461.51 1,190.59 991.81 -182.8CENRAP Arkansas 82.63 82.63 83.25 40.83 42.15 82.63 81.80 83.30 37.71 40.29 0.00  Iowa 145.10 139.66 147.98 143.60 144.93 146.70 130.53 140.02 138.56 137.16 1.60  Kansas 80.16 80.52 81.49 59.32 59.32 78.46 78.82 81.49 59.33 59.35 -1.70  Louisiana 111..31 111..31 75.49 77.24 79.60 111..31 91.70 75.59 77.31 76.61 0.00 
45

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

 Minnesota 96.56 87.90 86.82 85.30 84.26 95.74 84.24 83.05 69.59 65.86 -0.82  Missouri 266.99 276.53 280.25 279.80 279.97 264.07 248.11 273.51 266.06 224.45 -2.93  Nebraska 73.63 73.63 73.63 37.18 37.18 73.63 73.63 73.63 37.18 37.18 0.00  Oklahoma 113.68 113.68 117.28 48.06 50.15 113.68 113.68 119.44 48.08 52.18 0.00  Texas 425.27 425.27 439.21 387.56 359.20 424.27 422.47 384.06 280.92 268.72 -1.00 CENRAP Total 1,395.34 1,391.13 1,385.39 1,158.90 1,136.76 1,390.49 1,324.98 1,314.08 1,014.75 961.80 -4.85 WRAP Arizona 60.54 60.55 63.28 63.28 56.83 60.54 60.55 63.80 64.22 57.78 0.00  California 6.79 6.79 7.53 7.53 7.45 6.79 6.67 7.63 7.63 7.49 0.00  Colorado 87.22 86.55 87.21 52.84 53.62 86.55 86.56 87.21 52.84 53.75 -0.67  Idaho 0.05 0.05 1.14 1.14 1.01 0.05 0.05 1.28 1.28 1.08 0.00  Montana 19.88 19.88 20.51 20.51 20.46 16.72 16.72 20.60 20.60 20.50 -3.16  Nevada 31.24 31.30 31.96 28.21 29.00 31.24 31.30 32.10 28.44 29.23 0.00  New Mexico 52.92 52.92 53.64 53.64 54.42 52.92 52.92 53.77 53.85 54.63 0.00  North Dakota 92.63 92.65 93.39 85.04 85.05 96.70 100.00 109.45 101.11 101.91 4.07  Oregon 10.18 10.18 16.27 16.27 15.54 10.18 10.18 17.07 17.07 15.91 0.00  South Dakota 12.09 12.09 12.09 4.15 4.20 12.09 12.09 12.09 4.18 4.20 0.00  Utah 53.16 53.16 53.16 53.16 33.55 53.16 53.16 53.16 53.16 33.55 0.00  Washington 11.25 11.25 20.75 20.68 19.29 11.25 11.25 22.18 20.96 22.06 0.00  Wyoming 70.13 70.10 72.69 71.37 38.69 64.79 64.64 71.95 72.45 38.72 -5.35 WRAP Total 508.08 507.48 533.62 477.82 419.10 502.97 506.09 552.29 497.79 440.80 -5.11 CAIR Plus Policy States 6,760.02 6,260.69 5,150.31 4,604.99 4,219.83 6,331.62 5,324.07 4,325.72 3,705.23 3,350.76 -428.4National 7,535.57 7,036.00 5,956.32 5,227.37 4,785.59 7,100.36 6,096.28 5,152.57 4,347.61 3,940.28 -435.2
46

Table A5.2: State Level Annual NOx Emissions in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (Thou

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

MANE-VU Connecticut 3.45 3.60 5.07 5.19 5.69 3.42 3.74 3.64 3.81 3.86 -0.03  Delaware 12.51 10.72 11.40 10.91 10.72 12.52 10.16 9.68 4.84 3.88 0.01 

District of Columbia 0.11 0.13 0.21 0.30 0.48 0.11 0.13 0.33 0.39 0.50 0.00 

 Maine 7.80 7.94 2.66 2.64 2.78 7.42 3.25 1.87 1.89 1.86 -0.38  Maryland 54.68 16.33 16.10 16.76 19.22 54.68 14.38 17.36 17.54 18.73 0.00  Massachusetts 30.40 24.25 24.57 22.05 22.55 20.90 13.89 12.03 9.89 9.96 -9.49 

New Hampshire 3.96 4.07 5.32 5.28 5.65 3.96 2.92 2.45 2.56 2.66 0.00 

 New Jersey 16.90 10.82 11.00 12.70 12.54 16.88 11.57 10.64 12.06 10.89 -0.02  New York 48.33 48.42 46.14 41.52 38.72 47.59 41.00 31.26 30.61 28.72 -0.74  Pennsylvania 207.46 144.89 85.35 83.95 79.34 208.06 126.22 72.38 68.60 64.08 0.60  Rhode Island 0.26 0.59 0.53 0.57 0.67 0.26 0.58 0.23 0.27 0.27 0.00  Vermont 0.13 0.17 0.39 0.40 0.47 0.13 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.00 MANE-VU Total 385.99 271.92 208.74 202.25 198.82 375.92 228.00 162.05 152.67 145.64 -10.06 LADCO Illinois 131.60 87.21 73.57 70.99 72.80 130.94 62.34 56.53 54.12 53.33 -0.66  Indiana 219.40 144.58 107.85 96.96 85.08 221.73 136.98 54.83 53.22 51.32 2.33  Michigan 120.64 86.96 85.53 87.16 92.62 120.00 82.48 39.77 40.44 41.42 -0.64  Ohio 272.07 116.53 97.31 89.00 85.95 271.91 101.79 66.96 65.25 63.56 -0.16  Wisconsin 60.14 48.14 44.77 45.39 45.66 59.63 42.34 31.15 31.70 32.17 -0.51 LADCO Total 803.86 483.42 409.04 389.50 382.12 804.22 425.92 249.25 244.74 241.79 0.36 VISTAS Alabama 131.82 82.73 68.84 47.15 47.46 134.12 52.64 31.69 31.13 32.74 2.30  Florida 164.71 115.54 78.29 74.45 66.66 164.71 105.40 49.61 49.19 48.58 0.00  Georgia 239.40 96.35 91.57 59.66 51.41 239.40 74.34 37.81 38.67 42.01 0.00  Kentucky 171.39 96.49 88.06 70.17 58.75 176.12 97.11 38.57 37.75 37.35 4.73  Mississippi 38.10 31.42 31.53 8.19 9.06 38.10 29.14 7.67 8.53 9.64 0.00  North Carolina 62.68 55.96 56.86 56.91 56.57 62.71 52.14 52.66 51.01 49.03 0.03  South Carolina 50.92 35.94 39.26 38.95 40.67 52.51 37.72 27.56 27.14 29.35 1.58  Tennessee 104.12 48.39 39.34 39.14 29.16 104.92 28.22 20.27 20.23 20.28 0.80  Virginia 65.86 61.62 55.49 48.35 39.70 65.11 56.29 35.25 33.27 31.77 -0.74  West Virginia 178.66 75.42 71.84 59.08 53.44 177.99 64.59 50.12 49.30 49.51 -0.66 VISTAS Total 1,207.64 699.87 621.10 502.04 452.87 1,215.69 597.58 351.22 346.21 350.26 8.05 CENRAP Arkansas 45.27 32.09 33.00 34.03 35.42 45.27 32.47 16.46 12.16 13.69 0.01  Iowa 74.73 46.67 50.84 47.85 48.69 75.86 41.36 20.33 20.31 19.64 1.14  Kansas 82.69 82.77 82.84 53.35 53.55 82.69 83.10 82.87 53.38 53.55 0.00  Louisiana 50.66 31.88 33.58 32.36 34.75 50.79 31.59 14.73 15.69 17.95 0.13 
47

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

 Minnesota 74.90 41.18 40.77 40.40 40.52 74.85 36.54 18.58 17.40 16.71 -0.05  Missouri 121.35 72.43 74.57 67.79 67.90 121.95 67.82 49.68 48.50 45.56 0.60  Nebraska 50.75 50.77 50.77 38.47 38.57 50.82 50.86 50.85 38.56 38.58 0.08  Oklahoma 74.02 78.23 77.50 53.42 53.52 73.94 80.88 77.80 56.21 55.85 -0.08  Texas 180.11 168.10 172.16 171.74 165.40 178.34 152.86 100.30 99.43 90.16 -1.77 CENRAP Total 754.46 604.11 616.04 539.42 538.33 754.51 577.47 431.60 361.63 351.69 0.05 WRAP Arizona 79.45 79.51 82.42 67.94 71.85 79.46 79.50 82.92 68.46 72.74 0.01  California 30.21 33.26 26.83 28.51 31.66 30.18 33.44 26.49 28.19 31.04 -0.03  Colorado 68.06 68.82 68.90 60.47 61.54 68.05 68.89 68.94 60.43 61.47 0.00  Idaho 0.71 0.71 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.71 0.71 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.00  Montana 38.43 38.43 38.79 38.79 38.81 38.43 38.44 38.84 38.84 38.86 0.00  Nevada 46.56 46.66 47.08 30.70 31.59 46.56 46.80 47.22 30.83 31.84 0.00  New Mexico 73.49 73.64 74.31 72.30 73.16 73.49 73.68 74.47 72.55 73.46 0.00  North Dakota 71.54 71.71 71.69 39.86 39.93 70.92 71.76 71.76 39.94 39.94 -0.61  Oregon 10.84 10.84 14.27 14.27 14.27 10.84 10.84 14.72 14.72 14.72 0.00  South Dakota 14.54 14.54 14.55 1.75 1.82 14.57 14.58 14.58 1.80 1.82 0.03  Utah 60.79 60.79 60.79 53.39 53.36 60.79 60.79 60.79 53.39 53.36 0.00  Washington 25.34 26.23 31.95 21.54 21.54 25.34 25.90 32.42 22.40 22.40 0.00  Wyoming 81.17 81.17 81.18 53.07 53.17 81.18 81.18 81.18 53.07 53.19 0.01 WRAP Total 601.11 606.30 613.54 483.37 493.48 600.52 606.50 615.20 485.50 495.72 -0.60 CAIR Plus Policy States 2,944.50 1,847.55 1,643.80 1,487.96 1,426.50 2,942.89 1,614.14 982.59 957.10 941.40 -1.61 National 3,753.06 2,665.62 2,468.46 2,116.58 2,065.62 3,750.86 2,435.47 1,809.32 1,590.75 1,585.10 -2.20 
48

Table A5.3: State Level Ozone Season NOx Emissions in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Cas

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

MANE-VU Connecticut 1.55 1.62 2.20 2.25 2.47 1.54 1.68 1.60 1.66 1.69 0.00  Delaware 4.63 4.20 4.98 4.51 4.38 4.64 4.12 3.91 1.96 1.64 0.01 

District of Columbia 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.20 0.05 0.08 0.14 0.17 0.21 0.00 

 Maine 3.59 3.55 1.14 1.13 1.16 3.49 1.31 0.79 0.80 0.81 -0.10  Maryland 12.69 7.18 7.40 7.42 8.59 12.69 6.56 7.84 7.72 8.29 0.00  Massachusetts 10.68 9.47 10.62 9.07 9.37 6.38 5.60 5.11 4.25 4.16 -4.31 

New Hampshire 1.75 1.82 2.32 2.30 2.46 1.75 1.03 1.07 1.08 1.15 0.00 

 New Jersey 4.67 4.84 4.88 5.70 5.59 4.67 5.25 4.85 5.31 5.10 0.00  New York 19.58 19.11 21.09 18.58 17.43 19.27 17.10 14.37 13.68 12.49 -0.31  Pennsylvania 62.25 57.36 36.82 36.24 34.25 62.83 43.56 30.97 29.61 28.35 0.58  Rhode Island 0.16 0.27 0.23 0.24 0.29 0.16 0.27 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.00  Vermont 0.06 0.10 0.17 0.17 0.20 0.06 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.00 MANE-VU Total 121.67 109.58 91.93 87.75 86.38 117.54 86.66 70.83 66.43 64.11 -4.13 LADCO Illinois 30.31 28.33 32.45 31.95 31.69 29.03 26.58 24.94 24.00 23.26 -1.28  Indiana 61.31 60.02 46.53 41.46 36.50 63.58 54.08 23.69 23.16 22.42 2.27  Michigan 36.78 36.92 36.29 36.73 38.88 35.96 33.31 16.79 17.24 17.72 -0.82  Ohio 48.38 42.32 41.24 37.73 36.63 49.00 40.18 28.70 28.03 27.74 0.62  Wisconsin 26.45 18.68 19.11 19.68 19.74 26.31 18.10 13.33 13.57 13.92 -0.14 LADCO Total 203.23 186.27 175.61 167.55 163.44 203.88 172.26 107.46 106.01 105.05 0.65 VISTAS Alabama 33.72 30.51 30.95 20.94 21.00 36.02 20.24 14.30 14.22 14.73 2.30  Florida 76.17 53.00 36.71 34.10 30.75 76.17 44.39 24.18 22.93 23.06 0.00  Georgia 106.58 43.62 41.36 26.77 23.56 106.58 30.03 17.10 17.48 18.91 0.00  Kentucky 41.98 39.49 38.10 30.09 25.80 46.68 36.23 16.90 16.59 16.52 4.70  Mississippi 17.34 11.93 14.27 3.97 4.33 17.34 11.75 3.70 4.10 4.59 0.00  North Carolina 21.62 14.73 21.91 24.26 25.43 21.65 18.17 20.95 21.97 21.30 0.03  South Carolina 15.98 16.01 17.34 16.81 17.31 17.57 15.09 12.06 11.68 12.91 1.58  Tennessee 15.84 16.04 17.28 17.06 12.44 16.64 9.33 8.94 8.89 8.92 0.80  Virginia 25.68 25.05 24.19 20.22 17.49 25.16 21.60 15.09 14.10 14.16 -0.52  West Virginia 30.03 28.84 30.57 25.42 22.52 29.98 25.48 22.10 21.30 21.46 -0.05 VISTAS Total 384.93 279.23 272.67 219.65 200.63 393.79 232.32 155.32 153.27 156.57 8.85 CENRAP Arkansas 20.41 14.25 14.67 15.20 15.84 20.41 14.23 7.34 5.32 6.12 0.00  Iowa 32.58 18.17 22.00 20.63 21.01 33.60 17.55 8.94 8.79 8.43 1.03  Kansas 36.80 36.80 36.86 23.79 23.86 36.80 37.07 36.88 23.81 23.91 0.00  Louisiana 23.29 14.60 15.67 15.00 15.97 23.42 13.86 7.29 7.19 8.19 0.13 
49

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

 Minnesota 33.21 18.53 17.78 17.65 17.76 32.89 15.79 8.15 7.61 7.60 -0.32  Missouri 31.11 29.96 32.81 29.80 29.49 31.60 27.90 21.68 20.82 19.65 0.49  Nebraska 22.49 22.51 22.51 17.07 17.11 22.52 22.55 22.55 17.11 17.13 0.03  Oklahoma 34.87 38.92 36.74 25.77 25.38 34.79 41.16 37.05 28.43 27.47 -0.08  Texas 89.83 84.14 86.94 86.85 85.82 88.29 72.23 50.44 49.58 46.21 -1.54 CENRAP Total 324.58 277.90 285.98 251.76 252.23 324.33 262.33 200.31 168.66 164.70 -0.26 WRAP Arizona 35.13 35.14 36.28 30.09 31.66 35.14 35.12 36.48 30.18 32.00 0.01  California 12.71 13.83 11.61 12.53 13.83 12.70 14.10 11.34 12.43 13.55 -0.01  Colorado 29.98 30.12 30.17 26.60 27.04 29.98 30.24 30.16 26.62 27.03 0.00  Idaho 0.31 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.31 0.31 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.00  Montana 17.00 17.00 17.15 17.15 17.16 17.00 17.01 17.17 17.17 17.18 0.00  Nevada 20.90 20.93 20.93 13.65 14.06 20.90 20.99 20.98 13.71 14.18 0.00  New Mexico 32.68 32.83 33.03 32.13 32.48 32.68 32.84 33.11 32.24 32.64 0.00  North Dakota 31.60 31.74 31.73 17.63 17.66 31.18 31.77 31.77 17.68 17.68 -0.41  Oregon 4.76 4.76 6.23 6.23 6.23 4.76 4.76 6.42 6.42 6.42 0.00  South Dakota 6.44 6.44 6.44 0.77 0.81 6.45 6.46 6.45 0.80 0.81 0.01  Utah 26.91 26.91 26.91 23.64 23.60 26.91 26.91 26.91 23.64 23.60 0.00  Washington 11.19 11.52 14.01 9.41 9.41 11.19 11.19 14.21 9.77 9.77 0.00  Wyoming 35.93 35.93 35.93 23.49 23.54 35.93 35.93 35.93 23.49 23.54 0.00 WRAP Total 265.54 267.46 270.77 213.66 217.81 265.13 267.62 271.31 214.53 218.78 -0.41 CAIR Plus Policy States 940.26 754.74 730.08 660.09 636.33 945.41 652.79 437.45 425.01 421.93 5.16 National 1,299.95 1,120.44 1,096.96 940.38 920.49 1,304.66 1,021.20 805.23 708.90 709.22 4.71 
50

Table A5.4: State Level Fixed O&M Costs in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (1999 Millio

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

MANE-VU Connecticut 433.6 434.1 457.0 468.9 506.5 436.3 436.8 463.5 478.3 511.6 2.7  Delaware 59.0 59.0 66.5 69.5 71.2 55.5 55.5 58.8 62.6 65.7 -3.5 

District of Columbia 14.2 14.2 15.4 20.8 22.9 14.2 14.2 16.8 20.7 22.0 0.0 

 Maine 61.5 61.5 56.1 60.7 64.1 62.4 62.8 68.8 74.6 76.4 0.9  Maryland 460.1 475.4 503.3 587.3 617.0 464.9 480.2 526.9 587.2 605.8 4.8  Massachusetts 442.0 443.2 427.7 448.2 465.0 441.1 442.3 432.1 460.0 468.6 -0.9 

New Hampshire 209.5 209.5 225.7 234.1 240.4 211.2 211.2 227.1 237.8 241.1 1.7 

 New Jersey 856.7 856.7 896.5 919.5 959.3 853.3 853.3 891.3 919.8 970.2 -3.4  New York 1,429.0 1,429.1 1,502.5 1,563.6 1,604.4 1,426.6 1,426.7 1,506.8 1,544.9 1,607.0 -2.4  Pennsylvania 1,968.4 1,972.2 2,027.5 2,105.6 2,191.4 1,963.6 1,960.7 2,014.8 2,103.8 2,198.9 -4.8  Rhode Island 22.2 22.2 20.5 23.1 25.0 21.3 21.3 21.9 25.1 26.0 -0.9  Vermont 120.2 120.2 123.3 125.2 126.4 120.5 120.5 124.2 126.5 127.1 0.3 MANE-VU Total 6,076.4 6,097.3 6,322.0 6,626.6 6,893.7 6,070.8 6,085.3 6,352.9 6,641.2 6,920.4 -5.6 LADCO Illinois 2,021.9 2,022.7 2,058.7 2,168.5 2,391.2 2,028.4 2,023.5 2,060.8 2,178.8 2,395.1 6.6  Indiana 625.1 634.1 672.6 716.8 727.8 622.8 629.2 680.3 735.0 766.9 -2.3  Michigan 1,094.0 1,094.1 1,094.7 1,132.7 1,236.4 1,084.0 1,084.1 1,101.7 1,141.9 1,200.1 -10.1  Ohio 1,031.1 1,058.5 1,129.5 1,170.0 1,205.8 1,048.8 1,046.4 1,127.7 1,196.1 1,252.1 17.7  Wisconsin 515.7 515.9 529.6 552.9 589.7 507.1 507.7 531.1 552.5 578.9 -8.6 LADCO Total 5,287.7 5,325.4 5,485.1 5,741.0 6,150.8 5,291.0 5,290.8 5,501.6 5,804.3 6,193.0 3.3 VISTAS Alabama 987.4 989.5 1,030.4 1,123.6 1,181.0 987.0 986.7 1,064.0 1,130.5 1,190.9 -0.3  Florida 1,355.1 1,356.0 1,503.5 1,678.5 1,745.0 1,355.2 1,356.1 1,519.8 1,697.1 1,733.5 0.1  Georgia 835.8 857.9 901.2 1,089.1 1,208.6 836.1 878.2 989.8 1,107.1 1,229.5 0.2  Kentucky 495.5 496.2 533.6 556.5 569.1 494.7 494.0 542.3 582.2 592.5 -0.8  Mississippi 307.9 311.1 312.8 389.1 411.0 305.9 309.2 333.8 385.2 407.0 -2.0  North Carolina 970.1 986.3 1,087.7 1,189.6 1,251.6 969.0 986.1 1,095.3 1,188.7 1,248.9 -1.1  South Carolina 936.7 936.8 995.5 1,088.5 1,148.3 936.6 936.6 1,002.3 1,093.9 1,163.2 -0.2  Tennessee 663.6 664.6 735.2 754.3 782.6 663.4 664.4 747.6 785.4 794.3 -0.3  Virginia 625.6 625.6 719.5 789.7 831.7 620.4 614.8 718.0 790.4 826.4 -5.2  West Virginia 517.6 529.5 576.1 605.8 613.3 535.9 541.2 584.3 609.5 622.5 18.3 VISTAS Total 7,695.4 7,753.4 8,395.5 9,264.7 9,742.2 7,704.2 7,767.2 8,597.1 9,369.9 9,808.7 8.8 CENRAP Arkansas 383.8 383.8 421.2 465.1 484.1 383.8 383.8 422.9 458.4 485.8 0.0  Iowa 274.5 282.0 285.1 297.5 303.1 275.7 277.7 283.0 286.7 290.9 1.2  Kansas 340.7 341.6 357.5 395.1 414.5 337.5 338.4 354.2 391.9 394.6 -3.3  Louisiana 437.9 437.9 468.7 524.8 583.9 438.1 442.8 471.9 527.6 584.8 0.3 
51

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

 Minnesota 443.2 441.2 447.3 447.3 453.0 444.6 439.3 446.4 450.2 454.6 1.4  Missouri 444.5 447.6 457.3 506.9 538.8 445.3 443.6 455.7 494.6 535.6 0.8  Nebraska 303.8 309.8 313.9 325.3 326.0 304.4 310.4 314.5 325.5 325.9 0.6  Oklahoma 301.4 301.4 350.9 386.1 418.3 301.4 301.4 351.1 385.3 414.0 0.0  Texas 1,985.4 2,015.4 2,328.6 2,424.2 2,631.0 1,983.1 2,017.0 2,341.9 2,449.9 2,626.5 -2.3 CENRAP Total 4,915.3 4,960.7 5,430.4 5,772.5 6,152.8 4,913.9 4,954.5 5,441.5 5,770.2 6,112.7 -1.3 WRAP Arizona 711.5 716.5 756.1 756.1 900.0 691.9 696.9 744.5 749.6 893.6 -19.7  California 1,515.4 1,518.2 1,545.8 1,698.7 1,760.8 1,544.9 1,547.6 1,569.3 1,717.1 1,779.2 29.4  Colorado 197.0 201.0 204.3 224.7 232.0 196.0 199.9 203.2 223.6 232.1 -1.1  Idaho 49.1 49.1 52.9 52.9 52.9 49.1 49.1 53.8 53.8 53.8 0.0  Montana 136.5 142.9 147.1 147.1 150.6 136.5 143.0 147.7 147.7 151.2 0.0  Nevada 184.7 185.5 197.3 207.4 218.4 184.7 185.5 199.3 210.7 221.7 0.0  New Mexico 171.5 171.5 186.3 194.6 205.9 171.5 171.5 187.3 189.8 208.5 0.0  North Dakota 142.1 142.1 147.2 163.5 163.9 140.5 140.5 145.6 152.6 161.9 -1.6  Oregon 252.9 252.9 295.6 295.6 295.6 252.9 252.9 300.9 300.9 300.9 0.0  South Dakota 44.2 44.2 44.2 47.9 48.3 44.4 44.4 44.4 48.2 48.3 0.2  Utah 162.4 162.4 162.4 164.3 179.6 162.4 162.4 162.4 164.3 179.7 0.0  Washington 597.7 598.8 674.6 700.7 700.7 597.7 598.8 682.9 710.8 710.8 0.0  Wyoming 228.7 228.7 236.4 236.4 248.3 228.8 228.8 236.4 236.4 248.5 0.0 WRAP Total 4,393.9 4,413.8 4,650.2 4,889.9 5,157.3 4,401.3 4,421.2 4,677.8 4,905.5 5,190.2 7.4 CAIR Plus Policy States 23,028.9 23,184.0 24,610.6 26,298.2 27,780.7 23,036.7 23,147.7 24,873.4 26,482.9 27,900.2 7.8 National 28,368.7 28,550.7 30,283.1 32,294.7 34,096.7 28,381.2 28,519.1 30,571.0 32,491.1 34,225.0 12.6 

Note: To convert year 1999 dollars to year 2006 dollars, use a conversion factor of 1.1856 
52

Table A5.5: State Level Variable O&M Costs in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (1999 Mi

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

MANE-VU Connecticut 45.2 48.4 67.2 71.7 78.7 44.6 51.3 55.4 62.0 63.2 -0.6  Delaware 15.9 19.5 24.0 22.7 23.2 15.9 18.7 18.6 11.1 11.0 0.0 

District of Columbia 0.0 0.0 1.5 4.6 7.3 0.0 0.0 3.2 5.5 7.1 0.0 

 Maine 29.6 29.9 23.8 24.0 25.8 28.7 28.7 19.1 21.4 21.6 -0.8  Maryland 102.9 129.6 152.8 196.0 232.0 105.4 130.9 178.2 207.4 228.4 2.5  Massachusetts 115.6 99.3 136.2 133.8 145.9 115.8 98.5 112.3 116.1 119.6 0.2 

New Hampshire 29.2 30.7 49.1 51.7 57.0 29.2 29.6 38.2 43.8 45.3 0.0 

 New Jersey 91.3 96.4 99.8 96.3 100.3 91.3 102.2 98.5 98.0 105.7 0.0  New York 165.0 167.1 284.2 304.1 310.5 167.3 167.6 308.3 317.0 328.7 2.3  Pennsylvania 427.8 471.9 537.7 532.4 534.7 432.0 469.1 531.3 528.5 529.1 4.2  Rhode Island 1.9 5.1 6.5 7.6 9.2 1.9 5.1 3.8 5.5 5.7 0.0  Vermont 6.0 6.0 9.9 10.3 11.2 6.0 6.0 8.1 9.1 9.1 0.0 MANE-VU Total 1,030.4 1,104.1 1,392.5 1,455.3 1,535.9 1,038.1 1,107.9 1,375.0 1,425.5 1,474.6 7.7 LADCO Illinois 289.8 308.1 367.0 377.8 460.7 292.8 301.3 377.7 392.3 482.3 3.0  Indiana 309.2 353.4 390.3 426.6 432.7 309.5 341.8 426.4 452.1 468.0 0.3  Michigan 190.4 212.8 212.0 247.4 338.6 191.4 219.1 255.4 288.2 318.8 1.1  Ohio 408.3 519.5 568.8 591.5 592.6 429.3 507.4 568.1 600.5 610.4 20.9  Wisconsin 127.2 129.7 145.7 164.2 185.9 128.9 137.6 166.1 184.3 206.7 1.7 LADCO Total 1,324.8 1,523.5 1,683.9 1,807.5 2,010.5 1,351.8 1,507.1 1,793.7 1,917.4 2,086.2 26.9 VISTAS Alabama 219.5 256.9 298.0 347.1 377.4 213.3 246.9 336.1 357.0 400.5 -6.2  Florida 325.0 348.4 513.0 581.5 658.2 325.0 345.8 524.7 598.3 627.2 0.0  Georgia 204.6 252.0 321.3 411.7 465.0 204.6 277.6 445.7 485.3 554.3 0.0  Kentucky 267.7 305.5 346.3 362.9 373.9 262.1 281.2 360.1 381.4 386.4 -5.6  Mississippi 56.6 61.3 66.1 104.2 120.8 56.6 72.0 91.0 107.2 126.1 0.0  North Carolina 283.9 245.0 293.0 316.7 360.5 284.1 243.9 302.9 323.2 358.9 0.2  South Carolina 170.8 190.8 243.5 260.3 296.8 166.7 184.9 250.3 269.0 312.6 -4.1  Tennessee 159.8 186.5 195.0 194.1 212.9 155.4 162.7 203.9 213.5 217.9 -4.4  Virginia 121.8 133.7 189.2 212.4 253.9 121.9 130.3 201.6 224.7 255.5 0.0  West Virginia 285.2 326.2 391.7 413.0 419.4 314.3 355.9 407.0 418.5 427.0 29.1 VISTAS Total 2,095.0 2,306.3 2,857.3 3,203.9 3,538.9 2,104.1 2,301.2 3,123.2 3,378.1 3,666.5 9.1 CENRAP Arkansas 65.6 71.0 81.8 128.4 148.4 65.7 80.4 88.7 137.5 162.2 0.1  Iowa 85.2 93.0 96.9 101.5 108.3 86.2 98.0 113.4 115.7 120.5 0.9  Kansas 104.9 105.1 105.3 118.2 128.9 104.9 105.8 105.4 118.2 120.2 0.0  Louisiana 80.6 82.2 109.1 137.6 174.0 82.0 94.2 124.2 149.0 182.4 1.4 
53

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

 Minnesota 111.9 107.1 105.8 105.7 106.2 111.8 108.0 120.0 124.2 123.4 -0.2  Missouri 145.5 172.1 177.7 193.3 218.1 143.9 151.4 182.9 187.6 230.0 -1.6  Nebraska 47.6 47.7 47.7 73.1 73.1 47.6 47.7 47.7 72.9 72.9 0.0  Oklahoma 110.7 118.9 151.2 173.3 194.0 110.7 127.0 152.0 178.4 200.6 0.0  Texas 601.2 621.5 876.4 935.3 1,030.5 603.3 627.8 950.4 1,021.3 1,081.6 2.1 CENRAP Total 1,353.3 1,418.6 1,751.9 1,966.5 2,181.6 1,356.1 1,440.5 1,884.7 2,104.9 2,293.9 2.9 WRAP Arizona 198.3 199.3 245.3 246.0 302.5 198.4 199.3 253.6 257.0 316.8 0.1  California 504.9 528.5 522.1 602.3 648.8 504.0 530.8 513.1 590.5 632.8 -1.0  Colorado 93.3 98.4 99.3 112.1 123.3 93.3 99.1 99.3 111.9 124.0 0.0  Idaho 2.5 2.5 9.4 9.4 9.4 2.5 2.5 10.6 10.6 10.6 0.0  Montana 48.7 48.7 53.9 53.9 54.2 48.7 48.7 54.6 54.6 54.9 0.0  Nevada 91.7 94.4 108.3 113.1 126.7 91.7 94.7 110.7 116.8 130.7 0.0  New Mexico 86.3 86.7 101.3 104.6 118.3 86.3 86.8 100.2 102.4 121.6 0.0  North Dakota 71.8 72.2 72.1 81.9 82.0 69.9 71.2 71.2 77.1 81.0 -1.9  Oregon 23.9 23.9 74.1 74.1 74.1 23.9 23.9 80.6 80.6 80.6 0.0  South Dakota 5.4 5.4 5.5 9.6 9.9 5.4 5.5 5.5 9.7 9.9 0.0  Utah 88.3 88.3 88.3 88.3 91.8 88.3 88.3 88.3 88.3 91.8 0.0  Washington 51.1 53.7 146.4 145.4 145.4 51.1 52.7 157.9 157.9 157.9 0.0  Wyoming 116.8 116.8 117.4 117.4 124.2 116.8 116.8 117.4 117.4 124.4 0.0 WRAP Total 1,383.1 1,418.8 1,643.5 1,758.2 1,910.5 1,380.3 1,420.3 1,663.2 1,775.0 1,937.0 -2.8 CAIR Plus Policy States 5,540.3 6,080.8 7,381.3 8,068.7 8,870.8 5,586.8 6,076.1 7,871.6 8,456.2 9,127.4 46.6 National 7,186.6 7,771.3 9,329.1 10,191.5 11,177.4 7,230.4 7,777.0 9,839.8 10,600.8 11,458.1 43.8 

Note: To convert year 1999 dollars to year 2006 dollars, use a conversion factor of 1.1856 
54

Table A5.6: State Level Annualized Capital Costs in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (19

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

MANE-VU Connecticut 99.6 99.6 269.5 345.1 413.3 116.9 116.9 287.6 379.6 414.3 17.3  Delaware 10.6 10.6 28.7 40.6 49.3 10.8 10.8 18.0 34.9 52.1 0.2 

District of Columbia 1.8 1.8 10.2 42.2 57.5 1.8 1.8 20.3 43.5 52.5 0.0 

 Maine 34.5 34.5 100.7 129.8 156.2 41.0 42.6 108.5 144.0 157.4 6.4  Maryland 91.4 139.0 267.5 708.9 915.7 102.4 150.0 411.4 730.1 858.2 11.0  Massachusetts 209.9 209.9 528.7 670.5 798.6 245.2 245.2 565.7 738.1 803.4 35.4 

New Hampshire 75.7 75.7 196.0 249.5 297.9 87.5 87.5 208.5 274.1 298.7 11.8 

 New Jersey 23.6 23.6 71.7 147.7 203.1 25.0 25.0 70.6 178.8 289.2 1.5  New York 172.1 172.1 1,097.4 1,426.5 1,494.1 190.1 190.1 1,252.0 1,441.4 1,643.9 18.0  Pennsylvania 87.0 91.5 282.7 386.9 431.6 92.6 92.6 291.5 454.7 565.6 5.6  Rhode Island 19.2 19.2 55.8 72.1 86.8 22.8 22.8 59.6 79.4 86.9 3.6  Vermont 12.1 12.1 35.3 45.7 55.0 14.4 14.4 37.7 50.3 55.1 2.3 MANE-VU Total 837.4 889.6 2,944.2 4,265.4 4,959.1 950.5 999.8 3,331.4 4,549.0 5,277.3 113.1 LADCO Illinois 44.1 44.2 133.6 265.4 801.4 60.0 60.0 170.2 354.8 870.1 15.9  Indiana 26.6 43.6 110.4 311.2 349.1 31.3 52.1 222.1 492.8 640.5 4.7  Michigan 6.4 6.4 6.4 220.4 753.0 7.2 7.2 172.3 399.3 594.7 0.8  Ohio 97.3 175.0 525.2 748.7 762.4 140.9 169.3 485.0 841.3 990.6 43.5  Wisconsin 14.9 14.9 50.3 159.9 256.2 0.4 3.9 118.6 236.2 386.0 -14.6 LADCO Total 189.3 284.1 825.9 1,705.6 2,922.2 239.7 292.5 1,168.2 2,324.5 3,481.9 50.4 VISTAS Alabama 20.8 20.8 83.4 521.4 814.8 17.4 31.6 278.4 553.6 877.3 -3.4  Florida 13.0 26.7 941.9 1,717.7 2,125.8 13.0 27.0 1,052.4 1,855.0 2,051.0 0.0  Georgia 1.4 1.4 112.6 864.8 1,343.9 2.6 56.5 508.8 931.3 1,446.5 1.2  Kentucky 8.2 9.8 86.6 190.5 230.4 5.8 5.8 169.7 325.0 386.8 -2.4  Mississippi 0.5 0.5 15.0 236.4 365.2 0.7 0.7 109.2 230.1 362.8 0.2  North Carolina 234.1 275.2 623.4 866.4 1,113.6 234.2 275.1 677.4 878.4 1,117.3 0.1  South Carolina 23.3 23.4 321.4 535.7 748.9 21.8 21.8 381.9 573.7 807.4 -1.5  Tennessee 18.0 18.0 31.6 31.6 107.1 15.7 15.7 80.9 125.8 146.5 -2.3  Virginia 9.7 9.7 307.1 539.7 766.4 10.8 10.8 373.6 591.6 804.4 1.0  West Virginia 2.7 2.7 139.8 281.7 313.6 52.0 62.6 202.5 352.8 431.9 49.3 VISTAS Total 331.9 388.3 2,662.9 5,785.8 7,929.6 374.1 507.7 3,834.8 6,417.4 8,431.9 42.2 CENRAP Arkansas 0.1 0.1 45.9 191.3 314.3 0.1 0.1 71.0 224.9 349.3 0.0  Iowa 0.0 0.7 0.7 10.4 17.3 2.4 4.9 45.6 46.1 52.8 2.4  Kansas 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.2 71.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.3 39.4 0.0  Louisiana 0.1 0.1 107.6 290.4 508.7 0.1 11.8 149.1 326.0 532.0 0.0 
55

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

 Minnesota 45.1 84.0 84.1 84.1 86.9 47.9 88.7 119.2 132.0 132.0 2.8  Missouri 2.8 14.1 19.7 91.3 257.6 4.7 5.6 53.6 117.9 307.1 2.0  Nebraska 0.0 0.0 0.0 34.4 35.7 1.2 1.2 1.2 35.3 35.7 1.2  Oklahoma 0.5 0.5 237.8 345.3 524.2 0.5 0.5 239.1 351.6 521.5 0.0  Texas 225.6 225.6 2,245.5 2,610.3 3,446.4 243.1 260.7 2,399.5 2,822.6 3,626.5 17.5 CENRAP Total 274.2 325.2 2,741.4 3,679.7 5,262.7 300.1 373.4 3,078.2 4,078.7 5,596.3 25.9 WRAP Arizona 2.8 2.8 264.0 264.0 583.3 2.8 2.8 322.2 357.9 677.7 0.0  California 792.1 792.1 980.4 1,506.9 1,691.7 823.0 823.0 964.9 1,453.1 1,637.9 30.9  Colorado 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.3 93.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 42.2 102.3 0.0  Idaho 9.0 9.0 61.8 61.8 61.8 9.0 9.0 68.7 68.7 68.7 0.0  Montana 5.2 5.2 36.0 36.0 37.5 5.3 5.3 40.1 40.1 41.7 0.1  Nevada 0.7 0.7 65.7 70.5 148.6 0.7 0.7 80.2 93.9 171.8 0.0  New Mexico 0.6 0.6 68.1 75.4 152.1 0.6 0.6 80.7 90.4 172.8 0.0  North Dakota 23.2 23.2 23.2 48.0 48.8 19.3 19.3 19.3 36.2 44.2 -3.8  Oregon 50.2 50.2 346.1 346.1 346.1 50.2 50.2 384.7 384.7 384.7 0.0  South Dakota 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3 14.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 13.9 14.9 0.5  Utah 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.7 0.0  Washington 95.2 95.2 657.3 657.3 657.3 95.2 95.2 730.5 730.5 730.5 0.0  Wyoming 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 34.9 0.1 WRAP Total 979.0 979.0 2,502.6 3,121.7 3,884.3 1,006.7 1,006.7 2,692.0 3,311.7 4,097.9 27.7 CAIR Plus Policy States 1,632.3 1,886.6 8,936.5 15,034.5 20,442.3 1,862.7 2,171.6 11,172.4 16,960.4 22,190.9 230.4 National 2,611.8 2,866.1 11,677.0 18,558.1 24,958.0 2,871.1 3,180.0 14,104.7 20,681.3 26,885.4 259.3 

Note: To convert year 1999 dollars to year 2006 dollars, use a conversion factor of 1.1856 
56

Table A5.7: State Level Fuel Costs in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (1999 Million Dolla

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

MANE-VU Connecticut 768.8 806.3 312.3 286.3 289.9 724.6 1,058.0 330.8 278.7 288.6 -44.1  Delaware 133.8 132.5 126.9 118.1 121.2 134.7 141.9 114.8 63.2 61.2 0.9 

District of Columbia 0.8 4.6 4.6 14.6 21.7 1.0 5.1 9.4 16.6 20.6 0.1 

 Maine 594.3 580.6 219.4 203.1 199.9 578.1 569.5 211.6 204.9 201.1 -16.2  Maryland 548.2 562.5 574.2 691.8 782.3 545.6 567.2 634.3 718.8 760.9 -2.6  Massachusetts 2,558.0 2,382.5 1,509.2 1,097.8 1,088.0 2,530.1 2,474.2 1,488.2 1,103.7 1,194.3 -27.9 

New Hampshire 161.6 254.6 197.1 197.5 208.7 158.3 257.9 166.4 178.8 187.3 -3.3 

 New Jersey 791.9 844.7 686.7 575.2 624.8 789.6 1,226.1 676.7 610.3 673.9 -2.4  New York 3,017.9 3,031.9 1,809.5 1,615.5 1,705.7 3,043.8 3,410.1 1,765.3 1,676.8 1,736.8 25.9  Pennsylvania 2,676.7 2,878.9 2,501.0 2,286.8 2,210.0 2,742.5 3,601.3 2,442.4 2,299.3 2,269.6 65.8  Rhode Island 118.9 305.2 33.3 35.7 36.1 118.7 338.1 35.5 33.7 33.4 -0.2  Vermont 22.4 23.2 34.0 35.3 37.4 22.4 22.8 30.7 34.3 33.9 0.0 MANE-VU Total 11,393.4 11,807.5 8,008.2 7,157.8 7,325.7 11,389.3 13,672.2 7,905.9 7,218.9 7,461.5 -4.0 LADCO Illinois 1,792.0 1,761.4 1,822.0 1,780.1 1,832.1 1,793.8 1,747.9 1,803.1 1,752.7 1,808.5 1.8  Indiana 1,659.0 1,765.3 1,608.0 1,539.3 1,445.0 1,684.7 2,042.4 1,575.6 1,527.2 1,503.8 25.7  Michigan 1,511.1 1,599.1 1,445.7 1,458.5 1,572.6 1,528.2 1,991.8 1,488.3 1,459.7 1,458.7 17.1  Ohio 2,198.6 2,389.0 2,162.0 2,099.3 2,058.3 2,161.3 2,640.3 2,067.8 2,069.3 2,033.2 -37.2  Wisconsin 752.4 770.8 757.7 716.9 710.5 804.4 859.9 726.2 706.9 699.2 52.0 LADCO Total 7,913.0 8,285.7 7,795.4 7,594.1 7,618.5 7,972.5 9,282.2 7,661.0 7,515.8 7,503.3 59.5 VISTAS Alabama 2,349.4 2,611.5 2,296.2 1,977.2 1,975.6 2,352.9 3,291.0 2,237.1 1,981.0 2,029.4 3.5  Florida 6,214.9 6,265.3 4,440.6 4,101.8 4,245.8 6,215.1 7,332.2 4,264.5 4,167.0 4,416.4 0.2  Georgia 3,109.1 3,276.3 2,525.7 2,439.5 2,536.7 3,086.8 3,272.5 2,527.8 2,500.4 2,624.9 -22.3  Kentucky 1,067.2 1,050.9 980.1 1,008.9 1,015.0 1,083.2 1,020.3 969.3 1,011.4 1,017.5 16.0  Mississippi 884.1 991.6 737.9 720.0 736.8 885.5 1,758.7 745.0 751.7 766.2 1.4  North Carolina 1,439.6 1,297.9 1,358.6 1,434.3 1,526.2 1,416.1 1,387.1 1,372.9 1,446.8 1,504.8 -23.5  South Carolina 1,243.8 1,412.2 1,285.7 1,248.7 1,339.1 1,236.8 1,685.0 1,286.4 1,270.4 1,403.1 -7.0  Tennessee 820.3 822.1 849.4 816.4 799.5 807.5 717.7 832.5 822.4 801.2 -12.9  Virginia 1,152.1 1,587.3 1,198.4 1,138.4 1,169.9 1,155.6 1,707.8 1,148.7 1,116.4 1,167.9 3.5  West Virginia 1,074.6 1,054.2 1,000.3 1,015.2 1,005.1 1,026.7 1,007.4 960.9 1,014.9 1,013.7 -47.9 VISTAS Total 19,355.1 20,369.4 16,672.8 15,900.3 16,349.6 19,266.2 23,179.8 16,344.9 16,082.3 16,745.1 -88.9 CENRAP Arkansas 1,004.4 1,208.0 1,054.6 928.9 910.6 1,009.3 1,775.0 969.8 904.8 887.5 4.9  Iowa 617.8 672.3 631.9 613.2 664.4 630.1 832.7 613.8 629.7 652.0 12.2  Kansas 450.8 447.3 428.0 420.6 462.5 452.0 503.2 439.3 420.4 430.2 1.2  Louisiana 1,171.6 1,223.1 994.5 873.6 881.4 1,242.0 1,764.1 983.6 837.2 875.0 70.4 
57

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

 Minnesota 510.6 511.0 468.7 453.6 446.2 510.9 505.4 453.1 449.9 440.1 0.3  Missouri 928.1 992.2 1,001.7 976.7 987.2 926.3 972.4 979.3 930.5 897.7 -1.8  Nebraska 261.3 262.8 253.3 245.8 237.9 261.3 264.6 253.3 247.3 238.6 0.0  Oklahoma 2,064.3 2,230.8 1,480.1 1,315.1 1,191.4 2,065.1 2,855.6 1,492.8 1,422.1 1,369.9 0.8  Texas 11,112.6 11,303.2 6,765.2 6,275.9 6,356.6 11,116.4 12,545.3 6,753.2 6,307.3 6,359.4 3.7 CENRAP Total 18,121.5 18,850.6 13,077.9 12,103.5 12,138.3 18,213.3 22,018.3 12,938.2 12,149.3 12,150.5 91.8 WRAP Arizona 3,549.0 3,407.8 2,509.3 2,289.7 2,346.7 3,552.9 3,765.2 2,479.6 2,191.9 2,334.9 3.9  California 6,750.1 7,136.6 4,345.0 4,945.5 5,650.9 6,722.2 7,996.5 4,163.8 4,821.3 5,424.8 -27.9  Colorado 509.1 693.8 576.7 581.7 625.6 508.7 765.3 578.2 579.0 610.4 -0.4  Idaho 117.9 110.9 19.2 18.6 18.0 117.9 124.7 21.4 20.6 20.0 0.0  Montana 105.5 104.2 114.0 111.0 107.8 107.5 107.3 114.8 112.0 109.0 2.0  Nevada 1,194.4 1,142.9 845.6 774.8 778.6 1,194.5 1,272.6 849.2 778.1 789.1 0.1  New Mexico 408.8 414.3 393.5 390.8 446.5 408.7 424.9 400.9 400.5 458.4 -0.1  North Dakota 229.8 229.3 223.4 238.5 232.6 231.6 234.8 223.0 238.7 232.3 1.8  Oregon 877.9 826.8 656.1 585.9 564.7 877.9 926.3 668.2 600.6 578.6 0.0  South Dakota 36.3 35.9 35.8 33.9 37.5 36.3 36.8 35.5 34.0 33.5 0.0  Utah 230.1 223.8 217.8 211.4 206.8 230.1 223.7 219.0 210.1 206.4 0.0  Washington 591.6 731.0 603.8 529.8 512.1 591.3 736.9 593.3 554.6 534.7 -0.4  Wyoming 299.9 296.4 295.8 288.1 285.3 303.7 300.1 296.2 286.5 285.0 3.8 WRAP Total 14,900.6 15,353.8 10,836.1 10,999.7 11,813.0 14,883.2 16,915.1 10,643.0 10,827.9 11,616.9 -17.3 CAIR Plus Policy States 54,006.6 56,372.3 43,392.9 40,774.1 41,540.3 54,062.9 64,529.1 42,664.6 40,876.5 41,821.7 56.3 National 71,683.5 74,667.0 56,390.5 53,755.4 55,245.1 71,724.5 85,067.7 55,493.0 53,794.2 55,477.4 41.0 

Note: To convert year 1999 dollars to year 2006 dollars, use a conversion factor of 1.1856 
58

Table A5.8: State Level Total Production Costs in MARAMA Base Case and MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (1999 

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

MANEVU Connecticut 1,347.2 1,388.4 1,105.9 1,172.0 1,288.5 1,322.4 1,663.0 1,137.3 1,198.7 1,277.8 -24.8  Delaware 219.3 221.6 246.2 251.0 264.9 216.9 226.9 210.1 171.9 190.0 -2.4 

District of Columbia 16.8 20.6 31.7 82.1 109.4 16.9 21.1 49.7 86.3 102.2 0.1 

 Maine 719.9 706.5 400.0 417.7 446.0 710.2 703.6 408.0 444.8 456.5 -9.7  Maryland 1,202.6 1,306.6 1,497.8 2,184.0 2,547.0 1,218.3 1,328.3 1,750.7 2,243.4 2,453.2 15.6  Massachusetts 3,325.5 3,134.9 2,601.7 2,350.3 2,497.5 3,332.3 3,260.2 2,598.2 2,417.8 2,585.8 6.8 

New Hampshire 476.1 570.5 667.8 732.8 804.0 486.3 586.2 640.1 734.6 772.4 10.2 

 New Jersey 1,763.5 1,821.4 1,754.7 1,738.7 1,887.5 1,759.2 2,206.6 1,737.2 1,806.9 2,039.0 -4.3  New York 4,784.0 4,800.2 4,693.6 4,909.6 5,114.7 4,827.8 5,194.5 4,832.3 4,980.0 5,316.4 43.8  Pennsylvania 5,159.8 5,414.5 5,348.8 5,311.7 5,367.7 5,230.6 6,123.6 5,280.0 5,386.3 5,563.3 70.8  Rhode Island 162.2 351.6 116.1 138.5 157.1 164.6 387.3 120.8 143.7 152.1 2.4  Vermont 160.7 161.6 202.6 216.5 230.0 163.3 163.8 200.7 220.1 225.1 2.6 MANE-VU Total 19,337.5 19,898.4 18,666.9 19,505.1 20,714.4 19,448.7 21,865.2 18,965.2 19,834.6 21,133.8 111.2 LADCO Illinois 4,147.6 4,136.3 4,381.3 4,591.8 5,485.4 4,175.0 4,132.7 4,411.8 4,678.6 5,556.0 27.3  Indiana 2,619.9 2,796.4 2,781.3 2,993.8 2,954.7 2,648.3 3,065.4 2,904.4 3,207.2 3,379.2 28.5  Michigan 2,801.9 2,912.5 2,758.8 3,059.1 3,900.6 2,810.8 3,302.1 3,017.6 3,289.1 3,572.2 8.9  Ohio 3,735.4 4,142.0 4,385.5 4,609.5 4,619.2 3,780.2 4,363.3 4,248.7 4,707.2 4,886.2 44.8  Wisconsin 1,410.2 1,431.4 1,483.3 1,594.0 1,742.3 1,440.7 1,509.2 1,542.0 1,680.0 1,870.8 30.5 LADCO Total 14,715.0 15,418.6 15,790.2 16,848.2 18,702.1 14,855.0 16,372.7 16,124.5 17,562.0 19,264.4 140.1 VISTAS Alabama 3,577.1 3,878.8 3,708.1 3,969.3 4,348.8 3,570.6 4,556.2 3,915.6 4,022.1 4,498.1 -6.4  Florida 7,908.1 7,996.4 7,399.0 8,079.4 8,774.7 7,908.4 9,061.2 7,361.4 8,317.4 8,828.2 0.3  Georgia 4,151.0 4,387.6 3,860.7 4,805.1 5,554.2 4,130.0 4,484.8 4,472.1 5,024.2 5,855.2 -20.9  Kentucky 1,838.6 1,862.3 1,946.7 2,118.8 2,188.4 1,845.8 1,801.4 2,041.3 2,300.0 2,383.2 7.2  Mississippi 1,249.2 1,364.6 1,131.8 1,449.8 1,633.9 1,248.8 2,140.6 1,279.0 1,474.2 1,662.1 -0.4  North Carolina 2,927.7 2,804.4 3,362.7 3,807.0 4,251.9 2,903.5 2,892.3 3,448.5 3,837.0 4,229.9 -24.2  South Carolina 2,374.7 2,563.2 2,846.1 3,133.3 3,533.1 2,361.9 2,828.2 2,920.9 3,207.1 3,686.3 -12.9  Tennessee 1,661.8 1,691.3 1,811.2 1,796.3 1,902.1 1,642.0 1,560.5 1,864.9 1,947.0 1,959.9 -19.8  Virginia 1,909.2 2,356.4 2,414.2 2,680.1 3,021.9 1,908.7 2,463.7 2,441.8 2,723.1 3,054.2 -0.6  West Virginia 1,880.1 1,912.5 2,108.0 2,315.6 2,351.3 1,928.9 1,967.1 2,154.7 2,395.7 2,495.2 48.8 VISTAS Total 29,477.4 30,817.5 30,588.5 34,154.7 37,560.2 29,448.6 33,755.9 31,900.0 35,247.7 38,652.3 -28.8 CENRAP Arkansas 1,453.8 1,662.8 1,603.6 1,713.7 1,857.4 1,458.9 2,239.3 1,552.5 1,725.7 1,884.7 5.1  Iowa 977.6 1,048.0 1,014.5 1,022.7 1,093.2 994.4 1,213.3 1,055.7 1,078.1 1,116.2 16.8  Kansas 896.4 894.0 890.8 956.2 1,077.4 894.4 947.4 898.9 952.8 984.3 -2.1  Louisiana 1,690.2 1,743.3 1,679.8 1,826.5 2,148.0 1,762.3 2,312.9 1,728.8 1,839.8 2,174.2 72.1 
59

MARAMA Base Case (MARAMA_5c) MARAMA CAIR Plus Policy Case (MARAMA_4c) 

RPO State 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 2009 2012 2015 2018 2008 

 Minnesota 1,110.8 1,143.3 1,105.8 1,090.6 1,092.4 1,115.1 1,141.4 1,138.8 1,156.4 1,150.1 4.3  Missouri 1,520.9 1,626.1 1,656.3 1,768.2 2,001.8 1,520.2 1,572.9 1,671.5 1,730.7 1,970.5 -0.6  Nebraska 612.7 620.4 614.9 678.6 672.7 614.4 623.9 616.6 681.0 673.2 1.8  Oklahoma 2,477.0 2,651.6 2,220.1 2,219.9 2,327.9 2,477.8 3,284.6 2,234.9 2,337.4 2,506.0 0.8  Texas 13,924.8 14,165.7 12,215.7 12,245.8 13,464.5 13,945.9 15,450.9 12,445.1 12,601.0 13,694.0 21.1 CENRAP Total 24,664.2 25,555.2 23,001.6 23,522.2 25,735.3 24,783.4 28,786.7 23,342.6 24,103.1 26,153.3 119.2 WRAP Arizona 4,461.7 4,326.5 3,774.7 3,555.8 4,132.5 4,446.0 4,664.2 3,799.9 3,556.4 4,223.0 -15.7  California 9,562.6 9,975.4 7,393.3 8,753.4 9,752.2 9,594.0 10,897.9 7,211.2 8,582.0 9,474.6 31.4  Colorado 799.5 993.2 880.3 960.9 1,074.3 798.0 1,064.3 880.7 956.7 1,068.8 -1.5  Idaho 178.4 171.4 143.3 142.7 142.1 178.4 185.2 154.5 153.6 153.0 0.0  Montana 296.0 301.0 351.2 348.1 350.0 298.0 304.3 357.2 354.5 356.8 2.1  Nevada 1,471.5 1,423.5 1,217.0 1,165.8 1,272.3 1,471.6 1,553.4 1,239.5 1,199.5 1,313.4 0.1  New Mexico 667.3 673.1 749.3 765.4 922.9 667.1 683.8 769.1 783.1 961.3 -0.1  North Dakota 466.9 466.7 465.9 532.0 527.2 461.4 465.9 459.1 504.7 519.5 -5.5  Oregon 1,204.9 1,153.8 1,372.0 1,301.8 1,280.5 1,204.9 1,253.3 1,434.4 1,366.8 1,344.8 0.0  South Dakota 85.9 85.5 85.4 104.7 110.6 86.6 87.2 85.9 105.8 106.6 0.7  Utah 480.8 474.6 468.6 464.0 493.8 480.8 474.4 469.8 462.7 493.6 0.0  Washington 1,335.7 1,478.7 2,082.1 2,033.2 2,015.5 1,335.3 1,483.7 2,164.6 2,153.8 2,133.9 -0.4  Wyoming 645.4 641.9 649.5 641.8 691.2 649.4 645.7 650.1 640.4 692.8 3.9 WRAP Total 21,656.5 22,165.3 19,632.4 20,769.5 22,765.1 21,671.5 23,763.4 19,676.1 20,820.0 22,842.1 15.0 CAIR Plus Policy States 84,208.1 87,523.7 84,321.4 90,175.5 98,634.0 84,549.2 95,924.6 86,582.0 92,776.0 101,040.3 341.1 National 109,850.7 113,855.0 107,679.7 114,799.8 125,477.2 110,207.3 124,543.9 110,008.4 117,567.4 128,045.9 356.6 

Note: To convert year 1999 dollars to year 2006 dollars, use a conversion factor of 1.1856