10-i 

CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 10-2

10.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY ..................................................................... 10-2

10.2.1 Analyzed Product Classes, Market Sectors, and Market Segments ................... 10-3

10.2.1.1 Ballast Failure ............................................................................................ 10-3

10.2.1.2 New Construction/Renovation ................................................................... 10-4

10.3 BASE-CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS .................................................................... 10-6

10.3.1 Base-Case Scenarios Analyzed .......................................................................... 10-6

10.3.2 Historical Shipments .......................................................................................... 10-7

10.3.3 Calculation of Installed Stock ............................................................................ 10-9

10.3.4 Base-Case Market-Share Apportionment .......................................................... 10-9

10.3.5 Base-Case Forecast Results ............................................................................. 10-10

10.3.6 Base-Case Forecast by Market Segment.......................................................... 10-13

10.4 STANDARDS-CASE INPUTS ...................................................................................... 10-15

10.5 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................... 10-16

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................ 10-22

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Product Classes and Market Sectors Analyzed in the Shipments Analysis .......... 10-3

Table 10.2.2 Modeled Fluorescent Lamp-and-Ballast Replacement Trends ............................. 10-4

Table 10.3.1 Estimated NEMA and Non-NEMA Shipment Percentages for Fluorescent 

Lamp Ballasts..................................................................................................... 10-8

Table 10.3.2 Total Historical Fluorescent Lamp Ballast Shipments (Millions) ........................ 10-9

Table 10.3.3 Weighted Apportionments for Standard- and High-Efficiency 4-Foot T8 

MBP Ballasts ................................................................................................... 10-10

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.3.1 Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Existing Technologies Scenarios) .. 10-11

Figure 10.3.2 Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Emerging Technologies 

Scenarios) ......................................................................................................... 10-12

Figure 10.3.3 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate 4-Foot MBP and 8-Foot 

Slimline Lamps: Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment (Existing 

Technologies Scenario) .................................................................................... 10-13

Figure 10.3.4 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate 4-Foot MBP, MiniBP SO and 

MiniBP HO Lamps: Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment 

(Existing Technologies Scenario) .................................................................... 10-14

Figure 10.3.5 Product Class 3—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate 8-Foot RDC HO 

Lamps: Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment (Existing 

Technologies Scenario) .................................................................................... 10-14
10-ii

Figure 10.3.6 Product Class 5—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps 

in Cold Temperature Outdoor Signs: Ballast Shipments Forecast by 

Market Segment (Existing Technologies Scenario) ........................................ 10-15

Figure 10.5.1 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP 

Lamps (Commercial): Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments 

Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................................... 10-17

Figure 10.5.2 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP 

Lamps (Residential): Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments 

Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................................... 10-17

Figure 10.5.3 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP 

Lamps: Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................................................... 10-18

Figure 10.5.4 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot Slimline 

Lamps:Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................................................... 10-18

Figure 10.5.5 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP Lamps: 

Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................................................................... 10-19

Figure 10.5.6 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP Lamps: 

Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................................................................... 10-19

Figure 10.5.7 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP SO 

Lamps: Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................................................... 10-20

Figure 10.5.8 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP HO 

Lamps: Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................................................... 10-20

Figure 10.5.9 Product Class 3—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot RDC HO 

Lamps: Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .......................................................... 10-21

Figure 10.5.10 Product Class 5—IS And RS Ballasts That Operate Four 8-Foot RDC HO 

Lamps in Cold Temperature Outdoor Signs: Base-Case and StandardsCase Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) ... 10-21
10-2 

CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

Shipments of fluorescent lamp ballasts (hereafter “ballasts”) are key inputs to the national 

energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) calculations. Shipments are also a necessary 

input to the manufacturer impact analysis, which the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducts 

for its notices of proposed rulemaking (NOPRs). This chapter describes DOE’s methodology for 

projecting annual shipments and presents initial inputs and results for ballasts. 

In the shipments analysis, DOE developed a base-case shipment forecast for each ballast

type to depict what would happen to energy use and consumer costs for the purchase and 

operation of lamp-and-ballast systems in the absence of amended Federal energy conservation 

standards. In determining the base case, DOE considered historical shipments, emerging 

technologies, the mix of efficiencies sold in the absence of amended standards, and how that mix 

might change over time. To evaluate the impacts of standards on ballasts, DOE then compared 

the base-case projection with forecasts of what could happen if DOE promulgates amended 

standards (the standards case). DOE considered multiple shipments scenarios to characterize

both the base- and standards-case shipments. As an input to determine the cumulative NES and 

NPV of standards, DOE compared forecasted shipments of a base to a standards case over the 

national impact analysis (NIA) analysis period, 2014–2043. 

The shipments model and the national impacts model are integrated into a single 

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet accessible at 

www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/fluorescent_lamp_ballasts.html. 

Appendix 10A discusses how to access the spreadsheet and provides basic instructions for its 

use. This NOPR technical support document (TSD) chapter explains the shipments models. 

Section 10.2 presents the shipments model methodology for ballasts; section 10.3 describes the 

data inputs, historical shipments, base-case scenarios, and shipments forecasts; section 10.4

discusses the impacts of proposed amended standards on the mix of ballast designs; and 

section 10.5 presents the shipments results for the different trial standard levels (TSLs).

10.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL METHODOLOGY

In general, DOE followed a three-step process to forecast ballast shipments. First, DOE 

used 1990 to 2005 historical shipment data from U.S. Census Bureau to estimate historical 

shipments of each ballast type analyzed. Second, DOE calculated an installed stock for each 

ballast type in 2005 based on the lifetime distribution of each ballast type. Third, by modeling 

ballast purchasing events, such as replacement for failed ballasts and new construction, and 

applying growth rate, replacement rate, substitution among and within product classes and 

emerging technologies penetration rate assumptions, DOE developed annual shipment 

projections for the analysis period. 
10-3 

10.2.1 Analyzed Product Classes, Market Sectors, and Market Segments

DOE forecasted annual shipments for the ballast and market sectors presented in 

Table 10.2.1. The shipments model analyzed all ballast types at TSLs that assign efficiency

levels for each product class. 

Table 10.2.1 Product Classes and Market Sectors Analyzed in the Shipments Analysis 

Description Product Class Number

IS and RS ballasts that operate

 4-foot medium bipin (MBP) lamps*

 8-foot slimline lamps 

1 

PS ballasts that operate

 4-foot MBP lamps*

 4-foot miniature bipin (MiniBP) standard output (SO) lamps

 4-foot MiniBP high output (HO) lamps

2 

IS and RS ballasts that operate

 8-foot recessed double-contact (RDC) HO lamps 3 

Ballasts that operate

 8-foot RDC HO lamps in cold temperature outdoor signs 5 

*Includes both commercial and residential ballasts

In its shipments model, DOE considered specific market segments (“ballast purchase 

events”) to develop estimates of annual shipments. These two market segments correspond to the 

ballast purchase events that DOE used in the life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback period (PBP) 

analyses (NOPR TSD chapter 8). These included ballast failure (Event I) and new 

construction/renovation (Event II). For each market segment, DOE made certain assumptions 

about how consumers are likely to purchase new ballasts or lamp-and-ballast systems. DOE used 

these purchasing assumptions to develop the ballast shipment forecasts.

10.2.1.1 Ballast Failure

For those consumer purchases triggered by a ballast failure, DOE assumed that the 

consumer will purchase a ballast identical to the one that has retired, if it is available. If in the 

standards case, the base-case ballast design is not standards-compliant (and therefore unavailable 

as a replacement option), then DOE assumed consumers will purchase a new, standardscompliant lamp-and-ballast system from the same product class such that the system light output, 

if possible, never drops below 10 percent of the baseline system. In some instances this means a 

single ballast is replaced with two ballasts (e.g., replacing one two-lamp, 8-foot slimline lampand-ballast system with two two-lamp, 4-foot MBP lamp-and-ballast systems). Table 10.2.2

presents a full listing of the modeled lamp-and-ballast system replacement trends. 
10-4 

Table 10.2.2 Modeled Fluorescent Lamp-and-Ballast Replacement Trends

Retired Lamp-and-Ballast System Replacement Lamp-and-Ballast System

4-foot T12 electronic MBP (commercial sector) 87.5% 4-foot T8 MBP

12.5% 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO

4-foot T8 MBP (commercial sector) 87.5% replace in kind

12.5% 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO

4-foot T12 electronic MBP (residential sector) 20% replace in kind

80 % 4-foot T8 MBP

4-foot T8 MBP (residential sector) replace in kind

8-foot T12 slimline 10% 8-foot T8 slimline

10% replace in kind

80% two 4-foot T8 MBPs

8-foot T8 slimline replace in kind

4-foot T5 MiniBP SO replace in kind

4-foot T5 MiniBP HO replace in kind

8-foot T12 RDC HO 5% replace in kind

90% two 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems

5% 8-foot T8 RDC HO

8-foot T8 RDC HO 90% two 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems

10% replace in kind

8-foot T12 magnetic RDC HO (cold temperature/sign 

ballasts)

replace in kind

DOE established the timing of ballast replacements in response to ballast failure by 

tracking ballast shipments and then predicting when these ballasts are expected to retire based on 

their lifetime distribution. DOE recognized that ballast lifetimes vary, and modeled ballasts

lifetimes with Weibull distributions with maximum lifetimes as follows: 

• Commercial sector – 20 years 

• Industrial sector – 15 years

• Residential sector – 30 years 

Average lifetimes were adjusted to match average service life in NOPR TSD chapter 8. 

10.2.1.2 New Construction/Renovation 

For consumer purchases triggered by new construction and renovation, DOE began by 

assuming that consumers may purchase new lamp-and-ballast systems to service their particular 

lumen demand from within their current product class. DOE therefore produced initial shipment 

estimates due to new construction and renovation by deriving growth rates for each product 

class. The growth rates are based on the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) Annual 

Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO2010),1 which estimates annual commercial floor space and 

residential building growth. Because the AEO does not provide industrial floor space forecasts, 

DOE used commercial floor space growth values to establish a growth rate for the industrial 

sector. DOE assumed that the intensity of ballasts per unit of floor space remains constant (i.e., 

sector growth rates are assumed to be the only source of overall growth in the ballasts market). 

For renovation/retrofit, DOE assumed that each year 1 percent of ballasts in residential sector (3
10-5 

percent of ballasts in commercial and industrial sectors) that do not fail (and are not replaced due 

to failure) are retrofitted. 

However, for several product classes DOE research indicated that the ballasts market is 

moving in a particular direction. In such instances, DOE adjusted its forecasted growth rates for 

particular ballast types accordingly. In almost all cases DOE’s approach was to make these 

adjustments by substituting growth in one product class for another, without adjusting the overall 

number of forecasted shipments. The only exception is that wherever ballasts operating 4-foot 

lamps replace ballasts operating 8-foot lamps, DOE assumed this occurs at a 2:1 ratio. In 

determining what shipment trends to assume for this rulemaking, DOE referenced its previous 

analysis of fluorescent lamp-and-ballast shipments, performed as part of its proposed rulemaking 

for general service fluorescent lamp and incandescent reflector lamps rulemaking (74 FR 34080 

(July 14, 2009)); hereafter “the 2009 Lamps Rule”). 

For the commercial sector, historical lamps shipment data and manufacturer interviews

indicated significant growth for only 4-foot T8 MBP and 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO systems; 

consequently, DOE modeled all purchases due to new construction in the commercial sector as

being one of these two lamp-and-ballast systems. DOE modeled commercial sector 4-foot T5 

MiniBP SO and HO shipment growth based on a migration from other product classes. DOE’s 

research indicated that shipment growth of 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO ballasts is primarily driven by a 

migration from the 4-foot MBP market. As this migration requires the purchase of a new fixture, 

to establish 4-foot MiniBP T5 SO shipments, DOE allotted a portion of what would otherwise be 

the 4-foot MBP fixture new construction/renovation market to 4-foot T5 MiniBP systems. In the 

2009 Lamps Rule, DOE first calculated the size of this potential market for new 4-foot T5 

MiniBP SO systems in each year. DOE then determined the portion of this market that would be 

serviced by 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO systems by calculating the share that resulted in T5 shipments 

consistent with 2006 and 2007 data. For the ballasts shipments model, DOE held the resulting 

percentage—approximately 12.5 percent of the new construction/renovation market—constant 

throughout the analysis period. For 8-foot T12 cold temperature/sign ballasts, DOE assumed that 

the new construction market would be split evenly between electronic and magnetic ballasts—50 

percent each, even in the absence of proposed standard. This recognized that electronic ballasts 

provide significant energy savings and would be an attractive replacement for some users. 

In the industrial sector, confidential historical shipments showed a declining number of 

8-foot RDC HO lamps. Therefore, DOE assumed all system purchases due to new construction 

in the industrial sector are 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems (another rapidly growing market). In 

the 2009 Lamps Rule, DOE developed 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO ballast shipments by modeling a 

migration from two different lighting markets. Similar to 8-foot RDC HO systems, marketing 

literature indicates a large portion of 4-foot MiniBP T5 HO systems serve high-bay applications 

due to their highly concentrated light output. Historical shipment data for 8-foot RDC HO lamps 

showed substantial declines in 2006 and 2007, indicating T5 HO systems may be rapidly 

displacing 8-foot RDC HO systems. In addition, DOE’s research indicated that a significant 

portion of 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO growth can be attributed to their penetration into the high 

intensity discharge (HID) lamp high- and low-bay markets. Therefore, to calculate the growth in 

4-foot MiniBP T5 HO ballast shipments, DOE assumed that these systems were penetrating both 

the 8-foot RDC HO and HID markets. Similar to its analysis for T5 SO systems, DOE 

established that the new construction/renovation market segment represents the available market 
10-6 

for 4-foot MiniBP T5 HO systems. DOE obtained HID shipment data from the HID lamps 

rulemaking determination (75 FR 37975 (July 1, 2010)), from which DOE calculated the total 

lumens servicing low-bay and high-bay applications. Consistent with historical 4-foot T5 

MiniBP HO and 8-foot RDC HO shipments, DOE assumed 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems fully 

penetrate the 8-foot RDC HO new construction/renovation market segment as well as the HID 

new construction/renovation market segment. These same assumptions were applied in the 

proposed ballast rulemaking. 

For the residential sector, manufacturer interviews indicated that the majority of new 

residential 4-foot MBP fixtures use T8 MBP systems. Consequently, DOE modeled only 4-foot 

T8 MBP lamp-and-ballast systems for new construction in the residential sector. 

10.3 BASE-CASE INPUTS AND FORECASTS

This section describes the two base-case scenarios DOE employed in its analysis and the 

base-case input market-share apportioning for ballasts and presents the base-case forecasts for 

each ballast type along with historical ballast shipments data. 

10.3.1 Base-Case Scenarios Analyzed 

DOE recognizes that rapidly emerging new lighting technologies could penetrate the 

fluorescent lighting market and significantly affect ballast shipment forecasts. These 

technologies, such as light-emitting diodes (LEDs), already are or eventually could be 

significantly more efficacious and longer lasting than the sources they replace. If emerging 

technologies achieve their potential, they may significantly affect the benefit calculations from 

efficiency standards. However, to calculate NES and NPV change due to emerging technologies, 

DOE would need to accurately forecast the anticipated price and performance points of each

emerging technology, a difficult and highly speculative task. Because of this high degree of 

uncertainly, DOE considered two base-case scenarios for ballasts: existing technologies and 

emerging technologies. DOE believes evaluating two base-case scenarios will more completely 

and transparently characterize the uncertainty in estimating emerging technologies’ market 

penetration and the consequent impact on NPV and NES. Incorporating emerging technologies 

in the base case does not affect the relative benefits of each TSL and prevents uncertain 

projections of market share, price, or performance from obscuring the benefits derived from 

more efficient ballast designs alone. 

The assumptions and methodology that drive these scenarios and the details specific to 

each are described in sections 10.3.2 and 10.3.3, respectively. In general, DOE calculated the 

market penetration of each of the analyzed emerging technologies annually 2006–2043, 

assessing each sector separately. DOE then decreased the analyzed market size in each year in 

each sector by the amount that corresponded to the highest level of market penetration achieved 

by a technology. 

For its base-case analysis, DOE estimated the market penetration of LED systems into the 

projected installed stock. In general, the existing technologies scenario considers only the market 

penetration of technologies that have reached maturation in terms of price and efficiency. 
10-7 

Because LED systems are assumed to have not yet reached maturation, no technologies outside 

those covered by this rulemaking were analyzed in the existing technologies scenario. 

DOE generally followed a five-step process for each scenario to estimate the market 

penetration of the analyzed emerging technologies and account for their impact on NES and 

NPV. First, DOE developed price, performance, and efficiency forecasts for each of the analyzed 

emerging technologies. Second, using those estimates, DOE calculated the PBP of each 

technology in the relevant sector using the difference between its purchase price, annual 

electricity cost, and annual replacement cost relative to the fluorescent lamp-and-ballast system it 

replaces. Specifically, DOE used the following formula to calculate simple PBP: 

Annual Electricit Costy ($/klm/yr) Annual Replacemen Costt ($/klm/yr)

Purchase Price ($/klm) Simple Payback ∆ ∆+∆− = 

Where:

Δ = the difference between the two technology options 

compared, 

Purchase Price = includes the lamp price and fixture price, 

Annual Electricity Cost = a function of the mean annual operating hours and 

efficiency for each technology option, the electricity price, 

and the lumen demand, and 

Annual Replacement Cost = a function of the mean ballast life, annual operating hours, 

ballast price, and labor charge. 

Third, DOE used the relationship between PBP and market penetration to predict the 

market penetration of each technology in the relevant sector annually 2006–2043. DOE assumed 

this relationship is valid for other emerging lighting technologies (i.e., given a PBP duration, a 

technology will achieve a certain market penetration; the shorter the PBP, the greater the 

expected market penetration). DOE used a 5-year average of the market penetrations predicted 

by the relationship as its final market penetration. The 5-year average represents the time DOE 

assumed it takes products with lower PBPs to penetrate the market. 

Fourth, when necessary, DOE applied a scaling factor to the predicted market penetration 

to account for observed market trends. Fifth, the projected installed stock of covered products in 

each year affected by emerging technologies also exhibits decline, similar to shipments. Thus, 

emerging technologies have the effect of lowering the energy savings of a potential new 

standard. For those covered ballasts remaining, the cost effectiveness of LCC savings (and thus 

the relative cost effectiveness of each TSL) is not impacted. 

10.3.2 Historical Shipments

DOE used U.S. Census Bureau Current Industrial Reports (CIRs) for ballasts to estimate 

historical shipments for affected ballast designs.2, 3

 The census data contain National Electrical

Manufacturers Association (NEMA) shipments for individual ballast designs (e.g., 2-lamp 

F96T8) as well as aggregated shipments for multiple designs to keep manufacturer information 
10-8 

confidential. For some ballast designs, all shipments are withheld in the CIR to prevent 

disclosing data for individual companies. 

DOE estimated historical ballast shipments for 1990–2005 (CIRs for ballasts were 

discontinued in 2006). For those reporting years for which specific shipments data were not 

available, DOE extrapolated historical shipments based on trends within the available data, 

and/or market trends identified in ballast manufacturer interviews, the 2009 Lamps Rule, and the 

Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts Energy Conservation Standards Final Rule published on September 

19, 2000 (hereafter “the 2000 Ballast Rule”). 65 FR 56740; 10 CFR 430.23(m)(4). Where 

shipments data were aggregated and not available for specific ballast designs, DOE estimated 

historical shipments based on apportionment estimates and market trends identified in ballast 

manufacturer interviews, the 2009 Lamps Rule and the 2000 Ballast Rule. To validate these 

estimation methods, DOE requested historical ballast and residential fixture shipments from 

NEMA, but was unable to obtain this data. 

Recognizing that shipment estimates based on CIR data reflect only the shipments of 

NEMA members, DOE increased these estimates to account for the volume of ballasts that nonNEMA companies import or manufacture. Based on ballast manufacturer interviews and 

conservative estimates, NEMA shipments were assumed to account for 50–90 percent of total 

ballast shipments, depending on the ballast design. Table 10.3.1 presents estimated NEMA and 

non-NEMA shipment percentages for ballast designs considered in this rulemaking. Table 10.3.2

provides historical fluorescent lamp ballast shipments estimates for the entire U.S. market. 

Table 10.3.1 Estimated NEMA and Non-NEMA Shipment Percentages for Fluorescent 

Lamp Ballasts 

Year 4-Foot 

T8 

MBP

4-Foot 

T12 

MBP

8-Foot 

T8 

Slimline

8-Foot 

T12 

Slimline

8-Foot 

T8 RDC 

HO

8-Foot 

T12 RDC 

HO

4-Foot 

T5 

MiniBP 

SO

4-Foot 

T5 

MiniBP 

HO

4-Foot

T8 & T12 

MBP

(residential)

NEMA 90 70 90 70 90 60 90 90 50

Non-NEMA 10 30 10 30 10 40 10 10 50

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
10-9 

Table 10.3.2 Total Historical Fluorescent Lamp Ballast Shipments (Millions)

Year 4-Foot 

T8 

MBP

4-Foot 

T12 

MBP

8-Foot 

T8 

Slimline

8-Foot 

T12 

Slimline

8-Foot T8 

RDC HO

8-Foot T12 

RDC HO

4-Foot T5 

MiniBP SO

4-Foot T5 

MiniBP HO

Total

1990 11.3 7.6 0.1 1.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 23.2

1991 24.6 8.7 0.2 1.0 0.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 37.8

1992 36.3 9.3 0.4 1.0 0.1 3.5 0.0 0.0 50.5

1993 58.4 9.3 0.7 0.9 0.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 73.0

1994 51.9 7.9 0.6 0.9 0.1 3.7 0.0 0.0 65.0

1995 70.5 6.7 1.0 0.9 0.1 3.8 0.0 0.0 83.1

1996 67.2 6.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 3.5 0.0 0.0 78.7

1997 79.3 6.3 1.1 0.7 0.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 90.7

1998 85.8 6.1 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.8 0.0 0.0 96.4

1999 88.6 6.1 1.1 0.6 0.1 3.7 0.0 0.0 100.2

2000 99.8 5.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 110.9

2001 116.1 5.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 127.1

2002 118.8 5.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 3.2 0.9 0.9 131.5

2003 116.4 3.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.2 1.9 1.9 129.3

2004 118.6 2.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 133.0

2005 114.4 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 3.3 3.4 3.4 127.8

10.3.3 Calculation of Installed Stock 

Based on historical ballast shipments estimated from U.S. Census Bureau CIR data and 

assumed lifetime distributions, DOE calculated the 2006 ballast stock. For a mature market, 

DOE estimated the installed stock at the beginning of an analysis period by summing the 

historical shipments for the years that correspond to the service lifetime of each ballast type for 

every sector. 

In the future years, installed stock was calculated by subtracting from previous year’s 

stock the number of ballasts that are estimated to fail and the number of ballasts that were 

estimated to be retrofitted, and adding current year’s shipments. Current year’s shipments were 

composed of ballasts that were purchased to replace failed ballasts and ballasts retired due to 

retrofitting ballasts as well as ballasts shipped to new construction. These new shipments were

adjusted by substitution factors, described in the Table 10.2.2 and section 10.2.1.2. 

10.3.4 Base-Case Market-Share Apportionment

As discussed in the engineering analysis (NOPR TSD chapter 5) and the LCC and PBP 

analyses (NOPR TSD chapter 8), consumers have a variety of choices in replacement ballasts 

and lamp-and-ballast systems. When choosing lighting systems, consumers often make their 

choices considering attributes such as lifetime, efficiency, price, lumen output, rated wattage, 

and total system power. DOE captured these considerations by designing product classes that 

account for these consumer preferences. As discussed earlier, the shipments for ballasts depend 

on such input assumptions as ballast lifetime and system lumen output. In addition, other ballast 

or lamp-and-ballast system properties such as price and energy consumption were key inputs to 

the NES and NPV calculations. Therefore, within each product class, DOE believed it was

necessary to directly account for the mix of technologies that consumers select in the base case

and standards case. To account for the range of possible consumer choices, DOE developed
10-10

technology market-share apportionments. These market-share apportionments were used to 

estimate historical shipments and installed stock for each ballast design in the base case. 

DOE was not able to obtain detailed historical ballast shipment data from NEMA to 

develop percentage market shares for the analyzed ballast designs. However, based on 

manufacturer interviews, DOE was able to develop a general assumed market-share 

apportionment based on shipments of 4-foot T8 MBP electronic ballasts. Interviewed 

manufacturers provided estimated percentages of standard-efficiency and high-efficiency T8

ballasts sold through original equipment manufacturer (OEM) fixture and electrical wholesaler 

distribution channels. As presented in Table 10.3.3, DOE developed weighted apportionments 

for the two efficiency levels. Specifically, DOE assumed that 69 percent of shipped 4-foot T8 

MBP electronic ballasts are standard-efficiency designs, and 31 percent are high-efficiency 

designs. 

Table 10.3.3 Weighted Apportionments for Standard- and High-Efficiency 4-Foot T8 MBP 

Ballasts 

Ballast Efficiency Shipments Through Distribution Channel

%

Fixture OEM Electrical Wholesaler Weighted Average

Standard 80 50 69

High 20 50 31

Overall volume through 

distribution channel*

63 37 100

* Percentages from the 2000 Ballast Rule.

DOE believes that this apportionment is a reasonable estimate for the other ballast 

product classes analyzed in the base-case shipments model, as it reflects the assumed tendency of 

most consumers to minimize their first cost and select standard-efficiency designs if not 

otherwise required. Consequently, for each product class in the base case, DOE apportioned 69 

percent of shipments to the baseline ballast design, and divided the remaining 31 percent of 

shipments (i.e., the high-efficiency apportionment) among the higher efficiency level (EL) 

designs. In most cases there were two ELs in addition to baseline, so the split was even or 20 

percent were attributed to EL1 and 11 percent to EL 2. In some cases (like with sign ballasts), 

DOE had separated series from CIR for the two efficiency levels, so the split assumptions were 

not necessary. 

10.3.5 Base-Case Forecast Results

Figure 10.3.1 and Figure 10.3.2, respectively, present the base-case ballast shipments 

forecasts for existing technologies case and emerging technologies case from 2014–2043, 

modeled from the 2006 installed stock (based on 1990–2005 historical shipments) and growth 

rates, substitution rates, and retrofit rates. For categories of ballasts that are expected to 

experience penetration of emerging technologies (for instance, two lamp 4-foot MBP), base case 

scenarios would differ, while for the rest the series are the same. 
10-11

Figure 10.3.1 Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Existing Technologies Scenarios)

-

20,000,000 

40,000,000 

60,000,000 

80,000,000 

100,000,000 

120,000,000 

Shipments

Two Lamp Normal BF 4ft MBP IS & RS

Two Lamp Normal BF 4ft MBP PS

Four Lamp Normal BF 4ft MBP IS & RS

Four Lamp Normal BF 4ft MBP PS

Two Lamp Normal BF 8ft SP Slimline

Two Lamp 8ft RDC HO IS & RS

Two Lamp Normal BF 4ft T5 MiniBP SO

Two Lamp 4ft T5 MiniBP HO

Two Lamp 4ft MBP IS & RS Residential

Four Lamp Sign Ballast
10-12

Figure 10.3.2 Base-Case Forecasted Ballast Shipments (Emerging Technologies Scenarios)

-

10,000,000 

20,000,000 

30,000,000 

40,000,000 

50,000,000 

60,000,000 

70,000,000 

80,000,000 

Shipments

Two Lamp Normal BF 4ft MBP IS & RS

Two Lamp Normal BF 4ft MBP PS

Four Lamp Normal BF 4ft MBP IS & RS

Four Lamp Normal BF 4ft MBP PS

Two Lamp Normal BF 8ft SP Slimline

Two Lamp 8ft RDC HO IS & RS

Two Lamp Normal BF 4ft T5 MiniBP SO

Two Lamp 4ft T5 MiniBP HO

Two Lamp 4ft MBP IS & RS Residential

Four Lamp Sign Ballast
10-13

10.3.6 Base-Case Forecast by Market Segment

Figure 10.3.3 through Figure 10.3.6 present the base-case ballast shipments forecast by 

market segment (i.e., ballast failure/replacement, or new construction/renovation) for 

representative product classes. For three of product classes, shipments of replacements dominate 

shipments related to new construction/renovation over the analysis period. Note that 8-foot 

slimline ballasts are only shipped for replacement. They are substituted in the new construction 

by T5 ballast systems. The figures below are for the existing technologies scenario.

Figure 10.3.3 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate 4-Foot MBP and 8-Foot 

Slimline Lamps: Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment (Existing Technologies 

Scenario)

-

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

Shipments in millions

PC 1 Replacement PC 1 New construction
10-14

Figure 10.3.4 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate 4-Foot MBP, MiniBP SO and 

MiniBP HO Lamps: Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment (Existing 

Technologies Scenario)

Figure 10.3.5 Product Class 3—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps: 

Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment (Existing Technologies Scenario) 

-

20 

40 

60 

80 

100 

120 

140 

160 

180 

Shipments in millions

PC 2 Replacement PC 2 New construction

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

Shipments in thousands

PC 3 Replacement
10-15

Figure 10.3.6 Product Class 5—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate 8-Foot RDC HO Lamps

in Cold Temperature Outdoor Signs: Ballast Shipments Forecast by Market Segment

(Existing Technologies Scenario)

10.4 STANDARDS-CASE INPUTS

To characterize consumer behavior in the standards case, DOE considered many 

characteristics that consumers take into account when purchasing their lamp-and-ballast systems. 

Specifically, DOE regarded system price, system energy consumption, and system lumen output 

as three key drivers of consumer purchases. 

DOE developed two sets of two shipments scenarios to characterize consumers that may 

weigh these factors differently. To evaluate a standards case, DOE modeled a standards-case

scenario and compared it to the base case. 

The first set of standards-case scenarios for ballasts included the roll-up and shift

scenarios. The roll-up scenario represented a standards case in which all product efficiencies in 

the base case that do not meet the standard would roll up to meet the new standard level. 

Consumers in the base-case purchase ballasts above the standard level are not affected as they 

were assumed to continue to purchase the same base-case ballast or lamp-and-ballast system in 

the roll-up scenario. The roll-up scenario characterizes consumers primarily driven by the firstcost of the analyzed equipment. In a roll-up scenario, DOE assumed consumers will buy the first 

standard-compliant lamp-and-ballast system available. In contrast, in a shift scenario, DOE 

assumed consumers seek to shift to an efficiency level that keeps their purchase the same number 

of efficiency levels above the baseline as in the base case. The shift scenario modeled a standards 

case in which all base-case consumer purchases are affected by the standard. In this scenario, any 

consumer may purchase a more efficient ballast. As the standard level increases, market share 

incrementally accumulates at the highest EL because it represents “max tech” (i.e., moving 

beyond it is impossible given available technology options). The shift scenario characterizes 

-

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

Shipments in millions

PC 5 Replacement PC 5 New construction
10-16

consumers primarily concerned with system energy consumption, and reflects an upper bound 

scenario. 

In this rulemaking, DOE modeled shift scenario with a modification. It assumed that all 

the ballasts that are below the efficiency level established by the standard would roll up to the 

level required by the standard, and only the consumers of the ELs above the established 

standard would shift to a higher efficiency level than required. This adjustment would allow 

ballast shipments to be divided more realistically among ELs, when more than one EL is 

available on the market. Energy savings will be lower compared to “pure” shift scenario, but 

they represent a re-attainable boundary. 

In either the roll-up or shift scenario, consumers will attempt to buy a ballast from the 

same product class as their previously demanded system, except where additional replacement 

trends are modeled (as given in Table 10.2.2). The structure of these product classes is such that 

at each EL level lumen output is within 10 percent of the baseline system’s lumen output. 

Each of these pairs of scenarios (roll-up and shift) occurs in combination with the 

existing and emerging technologies scenarios from the base case, for a total of four standardscase scenarios.

 Many tables for the shipments analysis, NIA (NOPR TSD chapter 11), and some other 

downstream analyses present only two of the four possible shipments scenarios: existing 

technology, shift and emerging technology, roll-up. These scenarios are presented because they

produce the upper and lower bound scenarios for the energy impacts of this rulemaking, 

respectively.

10.5 RESULTS

The following sections show the shipments forecasts for the various efficiency levels 

over time and by shipments scenario. DOE’s forecasts of the resultant stock forecasts for the 

various efficiency levels over time and by scenario are presented in NOPR TSD chapter 11.

Figure 10.5.1 through Figure 10.5.10 present the shipments forecasts for the base case 

and standards cases for ballasts in the existing technologies, shift scenario. As noted, this reflects 

the upper-bound scenario for energy use. For the standards case, shipments are shown at what 

they are modeled as in the TSL 3 scenario.
10-17

 

Figure 10.5.1 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP Lamps

(Commercial): Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing

Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Figure 10.5.2 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP Lamps

(Residential): Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing

Technologies, Shift Scenario)

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

100 

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Millions

Base Case Baseline Base Case EL 1 (T8 Baseline)

Base Case EL 2 Base Case EL 3

TSL 3 EL 3

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

Millions

Base Case Baseline Base Case EL 1 (T8 Baseline)

Base Case EL3 TSL 3 EL 3
10-18

Figure 10.5.3 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP Lamps:

Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift

Scenario)

Figure 10.5.4 Product Class 1—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot Slimline 

Lamps:Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, 

Shift Scenario)

-

5 

10 

15 

20 

25 

30 

35 

Millions

Base Case Baseline/EL2 Base Case EL 3 TSL 3 EL 3

-

200 

400 

600 

800 

1,000 

1,200 

1,400 

1,600 

Thousands

Base Case Baseline/EL1 Base Case Baseline/EL2

Base Case EL 3 TSL 3 EL 3
10-19

Figure 10.5.5 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP Lamps: BaseCase and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift

Scenario)

Figure 10.5.6 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP Lamps: BaseCase and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift

Scenario)

-

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

9 

10 

Millions

Base Case Baseline Base Case EL 2 Base Case EL 3 TSL 3 EL 3

-

2 

4 

6 

8 

10 

12 

Millions

Base Case Baseline Base Case EL 1 Base Case EL 3 TSL 3 EL 3
10-20

Figure 10.5.7 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP SO Lamps:

Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift 

Scenario)

Figure 10.5.8 Product Class 2—PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP HO Lamps: 

Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift 

Scenario)

-

20 

40 

60 

80 

100 

120 

140 

Millions

Base Case Baseline Base Case EL 1 Base Case EL 2

Base Case EL 3 TSL 3 EL 3

-

5 

10 

15 

20 

25 

30 

35 

Millions

Base Case Baseline Base Case EL 1 Base Case EL 2

Base Case EL 3 TSL 3 EL3
10-21

Figure 10.5.9 Product Class 3—IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot RDC HO 

Lamps: Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast Shipments Forecasts (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Figure 10.5.10 Product Class 5—IS And RS Ballasts That Operate Four 8-Foot RDC HO 

Lamps in Cold Temperature Outdoor Signs: Base-Case and Standards-Case Ballast 

Shipments Forecasts (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

Thousands

Base Case Baseline Base Case EL 1 Base Case Baseline/EL 2

Base Case EL 3 TSL 3 EL 3

-

1 

2 

3 

4 

5 

6 

7 

8 

Millions

Base Case Baseline Base Case EL 1 TSL 3 EL 1
10-22

REFERENCES

1. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2010 with Projections to 2035. March 2010. 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html>.

2. U.S. Census Bureau. Current Industrial Reports, Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts: 2005. July 

2006. Washington, D.C. <http://www.census.gov/industry/1/mq335c055.pdf>. 

3. U.S. Census Bureau. Current Industrial Reports, Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts (individual 

annual reports for 1990−1996). MQ36C(90)-5 through MQ36C(96)-5. Washington, D.C.