# MD and HD GHG and FE Rule In te ra ge ncy Commen ts 20 July 2011

1 *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative ***

# 4 Issues Raised by In te ra ge ncy

• Av er ag e, Banking and Tra ding (ABT)

– Ag encies should c onsider lifting restrictions on tr ading between mark et segmen ts 

# • Natur al Gas Vehicles (NGVs)

– NHTSA should c onsider pr oviding additional credits for NG vehicles 

# • Maximizing net benefits

– Ag encies should pr ovide net benefits by sect or 

# • Pr obabilis tic Uncert ain ty

– Ag encies should augmen t ex isting benefits analysis with a c os t sensitivity
2 *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative ***

# In te ra ge ncy R ec ommenda tion on AB T

• Re moving cr oss cat egory ABT cr edit r es trictions could r educe the cos t of r egulation.
• Vo cational truck s ta ndar ds look highly cos t effective re lative to tr act or s, and hence, worthwhile sa vings could be r ealiz ed by r emoving effective re lative to tr act or s, and hence, worthwhile sa vings could be r ealiz ed by r emoving that barrier

. • Fo r similar r easons, all r es trictions on AB T tr ansfer s between mark et segmen ts should be lift ed.

3 *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative ***

# Ag encies’ Concerns with Structur al Chang es t o ABT Pr ovisions

• We support the br oad use of AB T to achieve our goals mor e cost effectively ex cept wher e we have identified the pot ential fo r a distortion in the mark et (windfall credits, unlevel pla ying field)

• However

, we r emain concerned that an open mark et for cr edits will not happen, and inst ead, the cr oss mark et tr ading in the AB T progr am will confer market power and inst ead, the cr oss mark ading in the AB T progr am will er market power on select companies in this mark et segment.

– Comments in r esponse to pr oposal indicat es that much of the industry shar es the concern as well as envir onment al or ga niz ations.

– Next few slides will wa lk thr ough the concern

• We will fully r eevaluate the cr edit pr ogr am in the cont ext of the next HD rulemaking wher e we can develop the tools to support the widening the tr ading opportunities.
4 *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative ***

# Large P ot en tial Sa vings fr om Voc ational Truck

Cr edits Doesn’t Exis t Vo cational Segment **Regulates These** (chassis = tir es & engines) We Do Not Re gulate These 

# 4 major Chassis OEMs Literally 100’ s of bodybuilders


# • St andar d pr emised on 100% application of Low R olling Re sistance (LRR) tires and 100% application of compliant engines . • Gener ating credits based on even lower tir e r olling r esistance or even gr eat er engine impr ovements is unlik ely given the performance tr adeoffs for tir es and the pr oject ed high cost of additional engine r eductions beyond our pr oposed sta ndar ds.
• Significant overcompliance by vocational trucks or engines is unlik ely , and hence, significant cr edit gener ation in the sector is unlik ely. 5 *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative ***

# MHD Vo cational Chassis Mark et & HHD Tr act or Mark et

**Manuf actur**  **er 2008 W** **ards NA Sales Data**  

# MHD Chassis **Manuf Mark** **et Shar e**  **HHD T ra**  **ctor Mark** **et Shar**  **e** Fr eightliner (Daimler) 31% 28%

Na vistar 41% 17% Pa ccar ( Pe te rbilt / Ke nworth ) 

# 0% 32% Vo lvo (Mack/Volvo) 

# 0% 23% **55%** Vo lvo (Mack/Volvo) 

# 0% 23% GM/Ford/Other 28% 0%

6 • “Regardless of the possibility that various flexibility scenarios may have similarly cost effective emissions reduction outco mes , we discourage the agency from allowing ABT across weight classes. Certain manufacturers with a wide product range (like Daimler) would be position ed to take advantage of such flexibilities and to gain commercial advantage over manufacturers whose product range is narrower. We do no t b elieve, however, that it is EPA's intent to create rules that lead to such imbalances or have negative impacts on intra - industry competition .” - Comments of Daimler Trucks North America 

# • Paccar & Volvo mak e up 55% of the Tractor Market but 0% of the “c heap” MHD credits fr om averaging or banking • Freightliner & Na vistar ha ve 45 % of the Tr actor Mark et and 72% of the “cheap” MHD credits from averaging or banking • The initial allocation of credits (ability to generate them) shouldn’t matter if a free market in trading exists ( Coase 1960) • In the 30 years of heavy - duty AB&T , only one trade has ever occurred (Caterpillar when it left the heavy - duty mark et). • In a concentrated mark et where withholding credits can increase market power , we and the majority of the industry believe free tr ading mark et will not arise. Given the potential for significant mark et power in this mark et, the agencies need to consider the competitive aspects of AB T on the industry.

# HHD Tr act or Mark et & HDD Engine Mark et

**Manuf actur**  **er 2008 W** **ards NA Sales Data**  

# HHD Engine **Mark et Shar**  **e HHD T** **ra ctor**  **Mark et**  **Shar e**  Fr eightliner (Daimler) 27% 28%

Na vistar 8% 17% Pa ccar ( Pe te rbilt / Ke nworth ) 1% 32% Vo lvo (Mack/Volvo) 13% 23% Cat/Cummins 53% 

# 0%

7 

# • Cat & Cummins (Cummins now) ar e 50% of the Engine Mark et but can’t cr eate vehicle cr edits • OEMs have no access to Aver aging or Banking cr edits fr om mark ets wher e they do not sell. • If cr edits can only be used in mark ets wher e they ar e gener ated, the access to cr edits fr om a company ’s own pr oduction pr ovides assur ance of a competitive mark et. • If cr edits can be br ought fr om an outside mark et by some OEMs but not other s, the manufactur er s that have access to these e xternal cr edits have a significant adv antage. • Since the this mark et is highly concentr ated, pr oceeding with cr edit tr ading is somewhat risky. • Because of our e xperience over 30 y ear s and the comments of the OEM’ s, we ar e concerned that a competitive mark et for cr edits will not arise . • Limiting tr ading can also encour age capital - intensive in vestments in the engine sector that ar e unlik ely to occur with open tr ading

# ABT Summar y

• In principle, we agr ee with the int er agency and support the use of AB T pr ogr ams to reduce the cost of achieving our goals.

• The g ains fr om tr ading ar e lik ely to be less than anticipat ed, since significant overcompliance by vocational trucks or engines is unlik ely.
• We are concerned that with a mark et that is highly concentr ated among manufactur er s ther e is the pot ential fo r concentr ating additional mark et power

e is the pot r concentr ating additional et power thr ough cr edits fr om other mark ets. The agencies believe that the curr ent pr ogr am aligns cr edit creation and use with the r eal HD mark et.

• Limiting tr ading will r educe the effects of further concentr ating mark et power .
• The agencies ar e commit te d to investig ating how such an cr edit mark et could be developed while re ducing the possibility of conferring superior mark et power to parts of the industry as we work on the next phase of r egulation. *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative *** 8

# Tr ea tmen t of NG Vehicles

• EP A has fully r ec ogniz ed the benefits of NGV in CO2 appr oach.
• We ar e implemen ting the Pr esiden tial Dir ectiv e to pr omote the use of natur al g as.
• CO2 appr oach allows NGV to gener ate cr edits ag ains t the higher emission performance of g asoline and diesel engines.

– NGV cr edits =20% lower than diesel, 30% lower than g asoline


# • We c ould ha ve set a more stringent sta ndard for NG engines based on the same t echnology impr ovements as diesel and g asoline engines but chose not t o do so.
• As a result NG engines c an c omply and g ener ate CO2 credits without an y additional co st or new t echnology. *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative *** 9

# Consequences of Dis - harmoniz at ion (NHTSA points)



# • Dis - harmonization will effectively mak e NHTSA’s r egulation of alternative - fueled vehicles a dead letter

. Ther e will be no point to the NHTSA standar d.

• Dis - harmonization will incr ease industry bur den thr ough cost of compliance and re cordk eeping, and fundamentally goes against the industry ’s under standing of this effort when they supported the Pr esident ’s memor andum for a joint rule.

• A significantly less stringent NHTSA - specific standar d for alternative - fueled vehicles will re sult in some manufactur er s building up e xc ess cr edits that they cannot sell, as ther e will not be a demand for NHTSA - specific cr edits. In addition to failing to give these manufactur er s an y r eal benefit, these e xc ess stor es of cr edits will give envir onmental NGOs in the ne xt HD rulemaking a clear argument that the NHTSA alternative fuel standar d is too lenient and should be significantly mor e stringent.

*** EP A Staff - Deliber ative *** 10

# Consequences of Dis - harmoniz at ion, Con t. (NHTSA points) If inter agency commenters ar e corr ect that a gr eater NHTSA incentive will lead to mor e natur al gas vehicles, then: By creating an artificial shift towar d certain technologies, the agency favors a specific petr oleum re ducing technology over other s and “picks” winner s, making the over all pr ogr am mor e costly by cr eating an artificial shift towar d certain technologies. • As the rule is structured, manufacturers will select the most cost effective set of technologies that meets their performance needs. If manufacturers can achieve the same result more cheaply other technologies, a program that • incentiviz es natural gas con version could result in unnecessarily higher price increases for consumers. • This also creates an incentive for manufacturers to game the system. 

# Alternatively

, if NHTSA is corr ect that disharmoniz ed standar ds will be stop - gapped by the mor e stringent standar d: A gr eater NHTSA incentive will not lead to mor e natur al gas vehicles or gr eater fuel efficiency gains. • There will be no mark et demand for additional NHTSA - specific credits. *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative *** 11

# Net Bene fits ByCa te go ry

3% Discount Rate 3%Discount Rate 3%D iscount Ra te 

### HD P **ick ups** **&**

**V an**  **s** Alt2 Alt3 Alt 4 Alt5 

### Vocati **onal** Alt2 Alt3 Alt 4 Alt 5 

### Tr **actor s**  Alt2 Alt3 Alt4 Alt5 Tru ck Pr ogr am Cost

s -$1,780 -$1,970 -$3,220 -$9,890 Tru ck Program Cost

s -$ 670 -$ 1,140 -$ 9,140 -$15,840 Tru ck Program Cost

s -$ 3,300 -$4,950 -$8,430 -$ 11,540 Fu el S av ings (pre-tax

) $3,480 $4,060 $4,910 $7,700 Fu el S avings (pre-t ax) $3,420 $5,420 $8,930 $14,270 Fuel S avings (pre-t ax) $38,140 $40,650 $50,030 $57,190 Energy S ecurit y I mpacts $190 $220 $270 $420 Ene rg y S ecu rity I mp acts $180 $290 $480 $760 Energy S ecu ri ty Im pacts $2,030 $2,160 $2,660 $3,040 A,C,N -$330 -$350 -$ 370 -$ 350 A,C,N -$ 540 -$650 -$670 -$500 A,C,N -$450 -$ 480 -$ 590 -$770 Refueling $40 $50 $60 $90 Refueling $40 $60 $110 $170 Re fueling $230 $250 $300 $350 No n- GHG n/a n/a n/a n/ a No n-G HG n/a n/a n/a n/a No n- GHG n/a n/a n/ a n/a Reduced CO2 Reduced CO2 Re duc ed C O2 5% (avg SCC) $100 $100 $100 $200 5% (avg SCC) $100 $100 $200 $300 5% (a vg SCC) $900 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 3% (avg SCC) $500 $500 $600 $900 3% (avg SCC) $400 $600 $1,000 $1,500 3% (a vg SCC) $4,200 $4,500 $5,600 $6,500 2.5% (avg SCC) $800 $900 $1,100 $1,500 2.5% (a vg SCC) $700 $1,100 $1,700 $2,600 2.5% (avg SCC) $7,000 $7,500 $9,300 $11,000 3% (95th percen tile ) $1,400 $1,600 $1,900 $2,800 3% (95th pe rc entile ) $1,300 $1,900 $3,100 $4,700 3% (95th per centile ) $13,000 $14,000 $17,000 $20,000 Mone tized net benefits Monetiz ed net benefits Monetized net benefits 5% (avg SCC) $1,700 $2,110 $1,750 -$1,830 5% (avg SCC) $2,530 $4,080 -$90 -$840 5% (a vg SCC) $37,550 $38,630 $45,170 $49,670 3% (avg SCC) $2,100 $2,510 $2,250 -$1,130 3% (avg SCC) $2,830 $4,580 $710 $360 3% (a vg SCC) $40,850 $42,130 $49,570 $54,770 

# • Alt 3 = Final Standards • For Pickups & Vocational Alt 3 maximizes net benefits relative to Alt 2 and Alt 4 • For Tractors alt 4 (including tr ailers) would increase net benefits

*** EP A Staff - Deliber ative *** 12 3% (avg SCC) $2,100 $2,510 $2,250 -$1,130 3% (avg SCC) $2,830 $4,580 $710 $360 3% (a vg SCC) $40,850 $42,130 $49,570 $54,770 2.5% (avg SCC) $2,400 $2,910 $2,750 -$ 530 2.5% (a vg SCC) $3,130 $5,080 $1,410 $1,460 2.5% (avg SCC) $43,650 $45,130 $53,270 $59,270 3% (95th percen tile ) $3,000 $3,610 $3,550 $770 3% (95th pe rc entile ) $3,730 $5,880 $2,810 $3,560 3% (95th per centile ) $49,650 $51,630 $60,970 $68,270 7% Discount Rate 7%Discount Rate 7%D iscount Ra te 

### HD P **ick ups** **&**

**V an**  **s** Alt2 Alt3 Alt 4 Alt5 

### Vocati **onal** Alt2 Alt3 Alt 4 Alt 5 

### Tr **actor s**  Alt2 Alt3 Alt4 Alt5 Tru ck Pr ogr am Cost

s -$1,780 -$1,970 -$3,220 -$9,890 Tru ck Program Cost

s -$ 670 -$ 1,140 -$ 9,140 -$15,840 Tru ck Program Cost

s -$ 3,300 -$4,950 -$8,430 -$ 11,540 Fu el S av ings (pre-tax

) $2,180 $2,550 $3,090 $4,830 Fu el S avings (pre-t ax) $2,280 $3,630 $5,970 $9,410 Fuel S avings (pre-t ax) $26,420 $28,170 $34,710 $39,680 Energy S ecurit y I mpacts $120 $140 $170 $260 Ene rg y S ecu rity I mp acts $120 $190 $320 $500 Energy S ecu ri ty Im pacts $1,410 $1,500 $1,850 $2,110 A,C,N -$220 -$230 -$ 250 -$ 230 A,C,N -$ 380 -$450 -$460 -$350 A,C,N -$320 -$ 340 -$ 420 -$550 Refueling $30 $30 $40 $60 Refueling $30 $40 $70 $110 Re fueling $160 $170 $210 $240 No n- GHG n/a n/a n/a n/ a No n-G HG n/a n/a n/a n/a No n- GHG n/a n/a n/ a n/a Reduced CO2 Reduced CO2 Re duc ed C O2 5% (avg SCC) $100 $100 $100 $200 5% (avg SCC) $100 $100 $200 $300 5% (a vg SCC) $900 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 3% (avg SCC) $500 $500 $600 $900 3% (avg SCC) $400 $600 $1,000 $1,500 3% (a vg SCC) $4,200 $4,500 $5,600 $6,500 2.5% (avg SCC) $800 $900 $1,100 $1,500 2.5% (a vg SCC) $700 $1,100 $1,700 $2,600 2.5% (avg SCC) $7,000 $7,500 $9,300 $11,000 3% (95th percen tile ) $1,400 $1,600 $1,900 $2,800 3% (95th pe rc entile ) $1,300 $1,900 $3,100 $4,700 3% (95th per centile ) $13,000 $14,000 $17,000 $20,000 Mone tized net benefits Monetiz ed net benefits Monetized net benefits 5% (avg SCC) $430 $620 -$70 -$4,770 5% (avg SCC) $1,480 $2,370 -$ 3,040 -$5,870 5% (a vg SCC) $25,270 $25,550 $29,120 $31,340 3% (avg SCC) $830 $1,020 $430 -$4,070 3% (avg SCC) $1,780 $2,870 -$ 2,240 -$4,670 3% (a vg SCC) $28,570 $29,050 $33,520 $36,440 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,130 $1,420 $930 -$3,470 2.5% (a vg SCC) $2,080 $3,370 -$ 1,540 -$3,570 2.5% (avg SCC) $31,370 $32,050 $37,220 $40,940 3% (95th percen tile ) $1,730 $2,120 $1,730 -$2,170 3% (95th pe rc entile ) $2,680 $4,170 -$140 -$1,470 3% (95th per centile ) $37,370 $38,550 $44,920 $49,940

# Cos t Sensitivity

• Pa ck age includes a pr obabilistic uncert ainty analysis for portions of the benefits analyses wer e the agencies have tools and input dat a to cr eat e such an analysis. • While we ar e highly confident of the cost estimat es in this rule especially given that most of the t echnologies ar e alr eady in pr oduction, we have also cr eat ed a cost sensitivity analysis with a high and low cost case to bound our estimates. • Cost elements that most significantly impact compliance costs were selected. • High Cost Case

– AE O2011 High Oil Price

– ICM estimate increased 20%

– Aerodynamics increased 10%

– Auxiliary P ower Unit increased 10%

– Tu rbocompounding increased 10% 

# • Low Cost Case

– AE O2011 Low Oil Price

– ICM estimate decreased 20%

– Aerodynamics decreased 10%

– Auxiliary P ower Unit decreased 10%

– Tu rbocompounding decreased 10% *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative *** 13

# Cos t Sensitivity

Pkg_v2.6.2; Prog_v1.22.0- Low Pkg_v2.6.1; Prog_v1.22.0 Pk g_v2.6.2; Prog_v1.22.0-H igh Monetize d Va lu es 2014M Y 2015M Y 2016M Y 2017M Y 2018M Y Su m Moneti ze d Va lu es 2014M Y 2015M Y 2016M Y 2017M Y 2018M Y Su m Moneti ze d Va lu es 2014M Y 2015M Y 2016M Y 2017M Y 2018M Y Su m Co st s Co sts Co st s **Tr uck**  **Prog ra** **m Cos**  **ts** -$1,500 -$1,300 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,800 -$7,500 **Tr uc**  **k Pro**  **gra m Cos**  **ts** -$1,600 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$2,000 -$8,100 **Tr uck**  **P ro**  **gra m Cos**  **ts** -$1,700 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,700 -$2,100 -$8,600 Be nef it s Be nefi ts Be nef it s Pre-tax Fuel Sav in gs $5,900 $5,100 $4,900 $6,800 $7,600 $30,200 Pre -t ax Fu el Savi ngs $9,300 $8,300 $8,100 $11,500 $12,900 $50,100 Pre -t ax Fuel Sav in gs $13,600 $12,000 $11,800 $16,700 $18,800 $72,900 En er gy Secur ity $500 $400 $400 $600 $700 $2,700 En erg y Securi ty $500 $400 $400 $600 $700 $2,700 En er gy Se cur ity $500 $400 $400 $600 $700 $2,700 Ac ci dents , Co ngestion, No is e -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$1,500 Accidents , Co nges tion,No is e -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$1,500 Acci dents , Co nges tion, No is e -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$300 -$1,500 Re fu elin g $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360 Re fu el in g $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360 Re fuelin g $60 $60 $60 $80 $100 $360 Re duced CO2 e mis sions Re duced CO2 e mi ssions Re duced CO2 e mis sions 5% (av g SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (av g SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 2.5% (av g SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 2.5% (av g SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 3% (95th per

centi le ) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 3% (95th per centile ) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 3% (95t h per centile ) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 Ne t Benef

it s **Ne t B**  **en efit** **s** Ne t B enefi ts 5% (av g SCC) $4,860 $4,160 $3,860 $5,980 $6,600 $25,460 5% (av g SCC) $8,160 $7,260 $6,960 $10,580 $11,700 $44,760 5% (avg SCC) $12,360 $10,860 $10,560 $15,680 $17,500 $67,060 **Lo w**  **Co st C** 

**ase 4:1 B**

**en efi** **t to C os**  **t Hig**  **h Cos t C**  **ase 8:1 B**

**enefi t to C** **os t**  **Re ference C** 

**ase (R ul** **e) 6:1 B**

**enefi t to C** **ost Es**  **tim ate**  **d So**  **ci et** **al I** 

**mpa cts**  **of the P**  **ro po**  **se d**  **He av**  **y-d uty Prog**  **ra m**  **(M illio**  **ns of 2**  **009 do** **lla rs**  **; 3 %**  **di sc**  **ount r ate**  **) Es**  **ti mate**  **d So**  **cieta l**  **Impac ts**  **of the Prop**

**os ed**  **H ea**  **vy -d**  **uty P ro**  **gra m**  **(M illio**  **ns of 2**  **009 do** **lla rs**  **; 3 %**  **di sc**  **ount r ate**  **) Es**  **tim ate**  **d So**  **ciet al**  **I mp**  **ac ts**  **of the Prop** 

**os ed**  **H ea**  **vy -d**  **uty Prog ra** **m (M**  **illio ns**  **of 2 009**  **do lla** **rs ; 3**  **% di**  **sc ount rate)** 



# *** EP A Staff - Deliber ative *** 14 3% (av g SCC) $5,760 $4,860 $4,560 $6,980 $7,800 **$29, 960**  3% (av g SCC) $9,060 $7,960 $7,660 $11,580 $12,900 **$49, 260**  3% (avg SCC) $13,260 $11,560 $11,260 $16,680 $18,700 **$71, 560**  2.5% (av g SCC) $6,460 $5,560 $5,160 $7,780 $8,700 $33,660 2.5% (av g SCC) $9,760 $8,660 $8,260 $12,380 $13,800 $52,960 2.5% (av g SCC) $13,960 $12,260 $11,860 $17,480 $19,600 $75,260 3% (95t h per

centi le ) $7,960 $6,860 $6,460 $9,680 $10,800 $41,260 3% (95th per centile ) $11,260 $9,960 $9,560 $14,280 $15,900 $60,560 3% (95t h per centile ) $15,460 $13,560 $13,160 $19,380 $21,700 $82,860 Monetize d Va lu es 2014M Y 2015M Y 2016M Y 2017M Y 2018M Y Su m Moneti ze d Va lu es 2014M Y 2015M Y 2016M Y 2017M Y 2018M Y Su m Moneti ze d Va lu es 2014M Y 2015M Y 2016M Y 2017M Y 2018M Y Su m Co st s Co sts Co st s **Tr uck**  **Prog ra** **m Cos**  **ts** -$1,500 -$1,300 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,800 -$7,500 **Tr uc**  **k Pro**  **gra m Cos**  **ts** -$1,600 -$1,400 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$2,000 -$8,100 **Tr uck**  **P ro**  **gra m Cos**  **ts** -$1,700 -$1,500 -$1,600 -$1,700 -$2,100 -$8,600 Be nef it s Be nefi ts Be nef it s Pre-tax Fuel Sav in gs $4,400 $3,700 $3,400 $4,600 $4,900 $20,900 Pre -t ax Fu el Savi ngs $6,900 $5,900 $5,600 $7,600 $8,300 $34,400 Pre -t ax Fuel Sav in gs $10,100 $8,600 $8,100 $11,100 $12,000 $49,900 En er gy Secur ity $400 $300 $300 $400 $400 $1,800 En erg y Securi ty $400 $300 $300 $400 $400 $1,800 En er gy Se cur ity $400 $300 $300 $400 $400 $1,800 Ac ci dents , Co ngestion, No is e -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$1,000 Accidents , Co nges tion,No is e -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$1,000 Acci dents , Co nges tion, No is e -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$1,000 Re fu elin g $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250 Re fu el in g $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250 Re fuelin g $50 $40 $40 $60 $60 $250 Re duced CO2 e mis sions Re duced CO2 e mi ssions Re duced CO2 e mis sions 5% (av g SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 5% (avg SCC) $200 $200 $200 $300 $300 $1,200 3% (av g SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 3% (avg SCC) $1,100 $900 $900 $1,300 $1,500 $5,700 2.5% (avg SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 2.5% (av g SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 2.5% (av g SCC) $1,800 $1,600 $1,500 $2,100 $2,400 $9,400 3% (95th per

centi le ) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 3% (95th per centile ) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 3% (95t h per centile ) $3,300 $2,900 $2,800 $4,000 $4,500 $17,000 **Ne t Benefi**  **ts Ne**  **t B en**  **efit s**  **Ne t Benefi**  **ts** 5% (av g SCC) $3,350 $2,740 $2,340 $3,660 $3,660 $15,650 5% (av g SCC) $5,750 $4,840 $4,440 $6,560 $6,860 $28,550 5% (avg SCC) $8,850 $7,440 $6,840 $9,960 $10,460 $43,550 3% (av g SCC) $4,250 $3,440 $3,040 $4,660 $4,860 **$20, 150**  3% (av g SCC) $6,650 $5,540 $5,140 $7,560 $8,060 **$33, 050**  3% (avg SCC) $9,750 $8,140 $7,540 $10,960 $11,660 **$48, 050**  2.5% (av g SCC) $4,950 $4,140 $3,640 $5,460 $5,760 $23,850 2.5% (av g SCC) $7,350 $6,240 $5,740 $8,360 $8,960 $36,750 2.5% (av g SCC) $10,450 $8,840 $8,140 $11,760 $12,560 $51,750 3% (95t h per

centi le ) $6,450 $5,440 $4,940 $7,360 $7,860 $31,450 3% (95th per centile ) $8,850 $7,540 $7,040 $10,260 $11,060 $44,350 3% (95t h per centile ) $11,950 $10,140 $9,440 $13,660 $14,660 $59,350 **Es tim** **ate d**  **So ci**  **et al**  **I**

**mpa cts**  **of the P**  **ro po**  **se d**  **He av**  **y-d uty Prog**  **ra m**  **(M illio**  **ns of 2**  **009 do** **lla rs**  **; 7 %**  **di sc**  **ount r ate**  **) Es**  **ti mate**  **d So**  **cieta l**  **Impac ts**  **of the Prop**

**os ed**  **H ea**  **vy -d**  **uty P ro**  **gra m**  **(M illio**  **ns of 2**  **009 do** **lla rs**  **; 7 %**  **di sc**  **ount r ate**  **) Es**  **tim ate**  **d So**  **ciet al**  **I mp**  **ac ts**  **of the Prop** 

**os ed**  **H ea**  **vy -d**  **uty Prog ra** **m (M**  **illio ns**  **of 2 009**  **do lla** **rs ; 7**  **% di**  **sc ount rate)**