## What do the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) spreadsheets do?

The LCC spreadsheets perform calculations to determine life-cycle cost and payback periods. The LCC spreadsheets operate in Excel 2000. The Excel add-on Crystal Ball allows the user to perform uncertainty analysis on key input variables.



## What are the Worksheets in the Workbook?

Each LCC spreadsheet or workbook consists of the following worksheets:
**LCC (Sample Calc)** contains the input selections and a summary table of energy use, operating costs, LCC and Payback.
**LCC (Simulations)** contains the input selections as in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet. If Crystal Ball is running, the energy, cost, LCC, and payback data are from the current sample. If Crystal Ball has finished running, the data are from the final sample.
**Engineering** contains the consumer prices at each efficiency level. Also included are the installation price, and the repair and maintenance costs.

**RECS HH Data** for each sample household, contains average and marginal electricity prices, annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps), the geographic location, the year the household was built, and the equipment’s age index.

**COMM Data** for each sample building, contains average and marginal electricity prices, and annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating energy consumption for heat pumps).
**Energy Price** contains projections of future energy prices from various sources.

**SEER Dist** contains historical shipment-weighted efficiency data by year; this is used for determining the probable SEER of existing space-conditioning equipment based on age.

**Seasonal Allocation Factors**contains seasonal (i.e., summer and non-summer) allocation factors of annual cooling (or heating) energy which indicate the fraction used by season. The seasonal allocation factors are based on the age and the geographic location of the household. The factors are used for determining the annual marginal electricity rate. Summer and non-summer allocation factors are multiplied by summer and non-summer marginal rates, respectively, and then summed to arrive at the annual marginal rate.

**drate dist** contains data from which an average discount rate and a distribution of discount rates are determined.

**Lifetime** contains the survival function for central air conditioners and heat pumps and the average central air conditioner and heat pump lifetime in years.
**Setup** this is used as an interface between user inputs and the rest of the worksheets -- do not modify this sheet.



## How does the user operate the spreadsheet?

To execute the spreadsheets fully you will need both Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball software. Both applications are commercially available. Crystal ball is available at http://www.decisioneering.com.
1)Once you have downloaded the LCC file from the Web, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for sheet LCC (Sample Calc) or LCC (Simulations).
2)Use Excel’s commands at the top View/Zoom to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.

### 3)The user interacts with the spreadsheet by clicking choices or entering data using the graphical interface that comes with the spreadsheet. Choices can be selected from the box labeled List Inputs on either of two worksheets:
a)LCC (Sample Calc) or, b)LCC (Simulations).
A change in either input sheet also changes the other. In the box titled List Inputs select choices from the selection boxes for the following: (1) energy price projection, (2) start year, (3) base case design, (4) standard case design, (5) manufacturer cost data, and (6) system type (split or single package). A new discount rate or lifetime can also be entered if a value other than the default value or default distribution is wanted, however, this would change the code and we do not recommend saving the spreadsheet after the code is changed.
a)energy price projection, b)start year, c)base case design, d)standard case design, e)system type (split or single package) (this choice appears just outside of the List Inputs box), f)price multipler (either ARI Mean manufacuturer cost multipliers or Reverse Engineering manufacturer cost multipliers), g)markups (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer, distributor, dealer, and builder markups and sales tax), and h)price multiplier (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer cost multiplier).
4)To change assumptions on List Inputs click on the assumption you wish to change, click on the new assumption from the menu.
5)This spreadsheet gives the user two methods of running the spreadsheet.

a)If the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet is chosen, then all calculations are performed for single input values, usually an average. The new results are shown on the same sheet as soon as the new values are entered.
b)Alternately, if the LCC (Simulations) sheet is used, the spreadsheet generates results that are distributions. Some of the inputs are also distributions. The results from the LCC distribution are shown as single values and refer only to the results from the last Monte Carlo sample and are therefore not meaningful. To run the distribution version of the spreadsheet the Excel add-in software called Crystal Ball must be enabled. 

## What is the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet used for?

LCC difference and Payback as provided in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet are based on single-point values. This page can be used to see the effect of changing a single parameter. 

## How does the user run the Crystal Ball simulation? (LCC Simulations sheet)

To produce sensitivity results using Crystal Ball, you need simply select Run from the Run menu (on the menu bar). To make basic changes in the run sequence, including altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from the Run menu. After each simulation run, the user needs to select Reset (also from the Run menu) before Run can be selected again. Once Crystal Ball has completed its run sequence it will produce a series of distributions. Using the menu bars on the distribution results it is possible to obtain further statistical information. The time taken to complete a run sequence can be reduced by minimizing the Crystal Ball window in Excel.
A step by step summary of the procedure, for running a distribution analysis, is outlined below:
1)Find the Crystal Ball toolbar (at top of screen) 2)Click on RUN 3)Select Preference and choose from the following choices:

a)Monte Carlo b)Latin Hypercube (recommended) c)Initial seed choices and whether you want it to be constant between runs

### d)Select number of Monte Carlo Trials (we suggest 10,000).
4)To run the simulation, follow the following sequence (on the Crystal Ball toolbar)

RUN RESET RUN
5)Now wait until the program informs you that the simulation is completed.



## What kind of output does Crystal Ball generate?

1)After the simulation has finished, to see the distribution charts generated, click on the Windows tab bar that is labeled Crystal Ball.

2)The life-cycle cost savings and payback periods are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations, or trials, performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts show the low and high endpoints of the forecasts. The View selection on the Crystal Ball toolbar can be used to specify whether you want cumulative or frequency plots shown.
3)To calculate the probability of that LCC savings will occur, either type 0 in the box by the right arrow, or move the arrow key with the cursor to 0 on the scale. The value in the Certainty box shows the likelihood that the LCC savings will occur. To calculate the certainty of payback period being below a certain number of years, choose that value as the high endpoint.
4)To generate a printout report, select Create Report from the Run menu. The toolbar choice of Forecast Windows allows you to select the charts and statistics you are interested in. For further information on Crystal Ball outputs, please refer to Understanding the Forecast Chart in the Crystal Ball manual.

# LIFE CYCLE COST OF SDHV - CRYSTAL BALL SIMULATIONS, Novem**ber 2002**

**Dollar Values in 2001 $ LIST INPUTS**  **ELECTRICITY PRICE**(cent/kWh) **Average** 

### Marginal **ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR**  **Year of Purchase 2006**  **7.47 6.60**  **Year Equip. Retires 2023**  **7.43 6.57** 

**BASE CASE DESIGN SEER 10**  **CHANGE SEER 13.4** 

**STANDARD CASE DESIGN % SHIPMENT**  **Total Installed Price $6,177**  **$1,283** 21% **$7,460 Comm.**  **10%** 

### Annual Repair & Maint. **$101 $26**  25% **$126 Resd.**  **90%** 

### Compressor Repl. Cost **$363 $135**  37% **$498 LIFETIME (years)**  **18.4 DISCOUNT RATE**  **4.2% Annual kWh Use**  **806 -203**  -25% **604 Payback**  **Annual Operating Cost (years)**  **ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 2001**(cent/kWh) **2006 $161**  **$12** 8% **$173 1000.0** 

**Average 8.10**  **Marginal 7.16**  **Cumulative Cash Flow $9,486**  **$1,644** 17% **$11,130 Life-Cycle Cost ($)**  **$8,412 $1,515**  18% **$9,927 BUILDING UEC** (kWh) **965 IRR (Internal rate of return)**  **#DIV/0! BUILDING SEER**  **8.4 AE**  **O 2 002** **- Re fe** **ren ce C** **as e**  **2006**

**SE ER**  **= 1 0.** **00**



### SE **ER = 1** **3. 4** 

**Fu el** **Pri ce**  **Co mp** **ari on**  **Fu el** **Pri ce**  **Co mp** **ari on**  **Sh ow** **Plo t** 

**Sh ow** **Inputs**

**Upda te**  

### AE **O 2 002** **- Re fe** **ren ce C** **as e**  **2006**

**SE ER**  **= 1 0.** **00**



### SE **ER = 1** **3. 4** 

**Fu el** **Pri ce**  **Co mp** **ari on**  **Fu el** **Pri ce**  **Co mp** **ari on**  **Sh ow** **Plo t** 

**Sh ow** **Inputs**

**Upda te** 

### Elec Price(cent/kWh) **Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow**  **Discounted Cash Flow Disc.** 

**Age Year**  **Average Marginal**  Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. **Factor** 2001 8.10 7.16**$6,177 $7,460** $1,283**$6,177 $7,460** $1,283**$6,177 $7,460** $1,283 1 2006 7.47 6.60 $161 $173 $12$6,337$7,633$1,295$6,331$7,626$1,295 0.96 2 2007 7.44 6.57 $161 $173 $12$6,498$7,805$1,308$6,479$7,785$1,306 0.92 3 2008 7.37 6.52 $160 $172 $12$6,658$7,978$1,320$6,621$7,937$1,317 0.88 4 2009 7.35 6.50 $160 $172 $12$6,818$8,150$1,332$6,756$8,084$1,327 0.85 5 2010 7.35 6.50 $160 $172 $12$6,978$8,322$1,345$6,887$8,224$1,338 0.82 6 2011 7.36 6.51 $160 $172 $12$7,138$8,494$1,357$7,012$8,359$1,347 0.78 7 2012 7.36 6.51 $160 $172 $12$7,298$8,667$1,369$7,132$8,489$1,356 0.75 8 2013 7.38 6.52 $160 $172 $12$7,458$8,839$1,381$7,248$8,613$1,365 0.72 9 2014 7.40 6.54 $160 $173 $12$7,618$9,012$1,394$7,359$8,732$1,374 0.69 10 2015 7.36 6.50 $160 $172 $12$7,778$9,184$1,406$7,465$8,847$1,382 0.67 11 2016 7.35 6.49 $160 $172 $12$7,938$9,356$1,418$7,567$8,957$1,390 0.64 12 2017 7.32 6.47 $160 $172 $12$8,097$9,528$1,431$7,665$9,062$1,397 0.61 13 2018 7.31 6.46 $159 $172 $12$8,257$9,700$1,443$7,759$9,164$1,405 0.59 14 2019 7.34 6.49 $523 $670 $147$8,779#######$1,590$8,054$9,542$1,488 0.57 15 2020 7.37 6.51 $160 $172 $12$8,939#######$1,603$8,141$9,636$1,495 0.54 16 2021 7.40 6.54 $160 $173 $12$9,100#######$1,615$8,224$9,725$1,501 0.52 17 2022 7.41 6.55 $160 $173 $12$9,260#######$1,627$8,305$9,812$1,507 0.50 18 2023 7.43 6.56 $160 $173 $12$9,421#######$1,639$8,382$9,895$1,513 0.48 19 2024 7.43 6.57 $160 $173 $12$9,581#######$1,651$8,456$9,974$1,519 0.46 20 2025 7.44 6.57 $161 $173 $12$9,742#######$1,664$8,527#######$1,524 0.44 $9,742#######$1,664$8,527#######$1,524 21 2026 7.44 6.58 $161 $173 $12$9,902#######$1,676$8,595#######$1,529 0.42 22 2027 7.45 6.58 $161 $173 $12##############$1,688$8,660#######$1,534 0.41 23 2028 7.45 6.58 $161 $173 $12##############$1,700$8,723#######$1,539 0.39 24 2029 7.45 6.59 $161 $173 $12##############$1,712$8,784#######$1,543 0.38 25 2030 7.46 6.59 $161 $173 $12##############$1,725$8,842#######$1,548 0.36

# LIFE CYCLE COST OF SDHV - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVERAGE VALUES), Novem**ber 2002**

**Dollar Values in 2001 $ LIST INPUTS**  **ELECTRICITY PRICE**(cent/kWh) **Average** 

### Marginal **ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR**  **Year of Purchase 2006**  **8.64 8.40**  **Year Equip. Retires 2023**  **8.59 8.36** 

**BASE CASE DESIGN SEER 10**  **CHANGE SEER 13.4** 

**STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price**  **$6,177 $1,283**  21% **$7,460 Annual Repair & Maint.**  **$101 $26**  25% **$126 Compressor Repl. Cost**  **$363 $135**  37% **$498 LIFETIME (years)**  **18.4 DISCOUNT RATE**  **5.6% Annual kWh Use**  **2305 -579**  -25% **1726 Payback**  **Annual Operating Cost (years)**  **ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 2001**(cent/kWh) **2006 $300**  **-$23** -8% **$277 55.4** 

**Average 9.36**  **Marginal 9.11**  **Cumulative Cash Flow $12,012**  **$1,003** 8% **$13,015 Life-Cycle Cost ($)**  **$9,709 $1,091**  11% **$10,799 AVERAGE UEC** (kWh) **2501 IRR (Internal rate of return)**  **#NUM! AVERAGE SEER**  **9.2 AE**  **O 2 002** **- Re fe** **ren ce** **Cas e**  **2006**

**SE ER**  **= 1 0.** **00**



### SE **ER = 1** **3. 4** 

**Fu el** **Pri ce**  **Co mp** **ari on**  **Fu el** **Pri ce**  **Co mp** **ari on**  **Sh ow** **Plo t** 

**Sh ow** **Inputs** 

### AE **O 2 002** **- Re fe** **ren ce** **Cas e**  **2006**

**SE ER**  **= 1 0.** **00**



### SE **ER = 1** **3. 4** 

**Fu el** **Pri ce**  **Co mp** **ari on**  **Fu el** **Pri ce**  **Co mp** **ari on**  **Sh ow** **Plo t** 

**Sh ow** **Inputs**

### Elec Price(cent/kWh) **Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow**  **Discounted Cash Flow Disc.** 

**Age Year**  **Average Marginal**  Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. **Factor** 2001 9.36 9.11**$6,177 $7,460** $1,283**$6,177 $7,460** $1,283**$6,177 $7,460** $1,283 1 2006 8.64 8.40 $300 $277 -$23 $6,476$7,736$1,260$6,460$7,722$1,261 0.95 2 2007 8.60 8.37 $299 $276 -$23 $6,775$8,012$1,237$6,728$7,969$1,241 0.90 3 2008 8.52 8.29 $297 $275 -$23 $7,072$8,287$1,215$6,981$8,202$1,222 0.85 4 2009 8.50 8.27 $297 $274 -$22 $7,369$8,561$1,192$7,219$8,423$1,204 0.80 5 2010 8.50 8.27 $297 $274 -$22 $7,665$8,835$1,170$7,445$8,632$1,186 0.76 6 2011 8.52 8.28 $297 $274 -$22 $7,962$9,110$1,147$7,659$8,830$1,170 0.72 7 2012 8.51 8.28 $297 $274 -$22 $8,259$9,384$1,125$7,862$9,017$1,155 0.68 8 2013 8.53 8.30 $297 $275 -$23 $8,556$9,659$1,102$8,054$9,195$1,140 0.65 9 2014 8.56 8.33 $298 $275 -$23 $8,854$9,934$1,080$8,237$9,363$1,126 0.61 10 2015 8.51 8.28 $297 $274 -$22 $9,151#######$1,057$8,409$9,523$1,113 0.58 11 2016 8.50 8.26 $296 $274 -$22 $9,448#######$1,035$8,572$9,673$1,101 0.55 12 2017 8.46 8.23 $296 $274 -$22 $9,743#######$1,013$8,726$9,815$1,090 0.52 13 2018 8.45 8.22 $295 $273 -$22############## $990$8,871$9,950$1,079 0.49 14 2019 8.49 8.26 $659 $772 $112##############$1,103$9,179#######$1,131 0.47 15 2020 8.52 8.29 $297 $275 -$23##############$1,080$9,310#######$1,121 0.44 16 2021 8.56 8.33 $298 $275 -$23##############$1,058$9,435#######$1,112 0.42 17 2022 8.57 8.34 $298 $275 -$23##############$1,035$9,553#######$1,103 0.40 18 2023 8.59 8.35 $299 $276 -$23##############$1,012$9,665#######$1,094 0.38 19 2024 8.59 8.36 $299 $276 -$23############## $989$9,771#######$1,086 0.36 20 2025 8.60 8.36 $299 $276 -$23############## $966$9,872#######$1,078 0.34 ############## $9,872#######$1,078 21 2026 8.60 8.37 $299 $276 -$23############## $943$9,967#######$1,071 0.32 22 2027 8.61 8.37 $299 $276 -$23############## $920##############$1,064 0.30 23 2028 8.61 8.38 $299 $276 -$23############## $897##############$1,057 0.29 24 2029 8.62 8.38 $299 $276 -$23############## $874##############$1,051 0.27 25 2030 8.63 8.39 $299 $276 -$23############## $851##############$1,045 0.26

# SMALL DUCT, HIGH VELOCITY SYSTEMS: COST AND EFFICIENCY DATA

**Total % Over**  **Consumer Equipment Price Installed**  **Annual Annual**  **Compr. Baseline**  **(2001$) Cost**  **Repair Maint.**  **SEER Price**  **Level Description**  **SEER Minimum**  **Average Max** **imum Std Dev**  **Total** (2001$) (2001$) (2001$) (Btu/Whr) (2001$)

0 SEER = 10.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2,067 $6,177 $61 $40 10.00 $363 1 SEER = 10.15 1.5% $21.08 $26.35 $31.62 $2.63 $2,093 $6,203 $61 $40 10.15 $363 2 SEER = 10.29 2.9% $42.16 $52.70 $63.24 $5.27 $2,120 $6,229 $61 $40 10.29 $363 3 SEER = 10.41 4.1% $63.24 $79.05 $94.86 $7.91 $2,146 $6,256 $61 $40 10.41 $363 4 SEER = 10.51 5.1% $84.32 $105.40 $126.48 $10.54 $2,172 $6,282 $61 $40 10.51 $363 5 SEER = 10.59 5.9% $105.40 $131.75 $158.10 $13.18 $2,199 $6,308 $61 $40 10.59 $363 6 SEER = 10.65 6.5% $126.48 $158.10 $189.72 $15.81 $2,225 $6,335 $61 $40 10.65 $363 7 SEER = 10.71 7.1% $147.56 $184.45 $221.34 $18.45 $2,251 $6,361 $61 $40 10.71 $363 8 SEER = 10.77 7.7% $168.64 $210.80 $252.96 $21.08 $2,278 $6,387 $61 $40 10.77 $363 9 SEER = 10.82 8.2% $189.72 $237.15 $284.58 $23.72 $2,304 $6,414 $61 $40 10.82 $363 10 SEER = 10.87 8.7% $210.80 $263.50 $316.20 $26.35 $2,330 $6,440 $61 $40 10.87 $363 11 SEER = 10.92 9.2% $231.88 $289.85 $347.82 $28.99 $2,357 $6,466 $61 $40 10.92 $363 12 SEER = 10.97 9.7% $252.96 $316.20 $379.44 $31.62 $2,383 $6,493 $61 $40 10.97 $363 13 SEER = 11.0 10% $260.61 $325.76 $390.91 $32.58 $2,393 $6,502 $62 $40 11.0 $391 14 SEER = 11.5 15% $344.93 $431.16 $517.39 $43.12 $2,498 $6,608 $62 $40 11.5 $391 15 SEER = 12.0 20% $534.65 $668.31 $801.97 $66.83 $2,735 $6,845 $62 $40 12.0 $391 16 SEER = 12.5 25% $668.20 $835.25 $1,002.29 $83.52 $2,902 $7,012 $86 $40 12.5 $498 17 SEER = 13.0 30% $857.92 $1,072.40 $1,286.87 $107.24 $3,139 $7,249 $86 $40 13.0 $498 18 SEER = 13.4 34% $1,026.56 $1,283.20 $1,539.83 $128.32 $3,350 $7,460 $86 $40 13.4 $498

Service Cost (98$) $36 

### CPI 1998 163.0 Installation Cost (2001$) $1,390 

### CPI 2001 177.1 Air Distribution System (2001$) $2,720 

### CPI 2002/1998 1.09

# COMMERCIAL BUILDING DATA

**Building ID Sam pled**  **1**

**Building ID 1**  **BUILDING INFORMATION SEER**  **10.00 UEC**  **5488** kWh/yr


## Avg. Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) **8.50** cents/kWh 

## Marg. Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) **8.39** cents/kWh


## Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) **$449**

**Wt. Avg. Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $449.0**  **Wt. Avg. SEER 10.0**  **Wt. Avg. UEC (kWh/yr) 5,824**  **Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 7.95**  **Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 8.08** 
**Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 2001 (cent/kWh in 2001$) 8.49**  **Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 2001 (cent/kWh in 2001$) 8.64** 

**CPI 1998** 163.0 **CPI 2001** 177.1

**CPI 2001/1998** 1.09

**AEO2002 2001/1998** 0.98

**CPI ratio * AEO ratio** 1.07

## 98 Avg **98 Marg Baseline**  **Building ID Weight**  **UEC ElecRate**  **ElecRate SEER**  **Mfg Cost** (kWh) cent/kWh cent/kWh 1 0.37% 3814 7.89 7.97 10.00 $449 2 0.79% 2782 7.84 8.45 10.00 $449 3 0.07% 5488 7.95 7.85 10.00 $449 4 0.33% 4356 7.94 7.97 10.00 $449 5 1.02% 4026 8.01 8.13 10.00 $449 6 1.50% 4461 7.90 7.96 10.00 $449 7 0.50% 3653 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449 8 1.01% 3814 7.89 7.97 10.00 $449 9 1.79% 2782 7.84 8.45 10.00 $449 10 0.23% 5488 7.95 7.85 10.00 $449 11 0.28% 4356 7.94 7.97 10.00 $449 12 2.99% 4026 8.01 8.13 10.00 $449 13 3.66% 4461 7.90 7.96 10.00 $449 14 1.84% 3653 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449 15 1.34% 3541 7.90 8.02 10.00 $449 16 2.01% 2435 7.92 8.28 10.00 $449 17 0.86% 5119 7.95 7.89 10.00 $449 18 0.96% 3982 7.95 8.01 10.00 $449 19 3.05% 3747 8.01 8.11 10.00 $449 20 3.85% 4129 7.91 8.00 10.00 $449 21 2.92% 3336 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449 22 0.77% 3673 7.97 8.10 10.00 $449 23 1.07% 2552 7.92 8.56 10.00 $449 24 0.12% 5196 7.95 7.88 10.00 $449 25 0.39% 4091 7.95 8.02 10.00 $449 26 1.52% 3805 8.01 8.12 10.00 $449 27 2.27% 4058 7.91 7.94 10.00 $449 28 0.64% 3497 8.03 8.03 10.00 $449 29 1.64% 8202 7.88 8.06 10.00 $449 30 2.37% 5470 7.88 8.48 10.00 $449 31 0.58% 10514 7.92 7.81 10.00 $449 32 1.40% 8984 7.91 7.95 10.00 $449 33 4.53% 7499 7.99 8.05 10.00 $449 34 5.49% 8497 7.88 7.91 10.00 $449 35 2.50% 6458 8.02 8.02 10.00 $449 36 1.06% 6862 7.89 8.14 10.00 $449 37 0.80% 4610 7.90 8.60 10.00 $449 38 0.30% 9116 7.93 7.84 10.00 $449 39 0.66% 7575 7.92 8.03 10.00 $449 40 1.21% 6521 8.00 8.08 10.00 $449 41 3.12% 7437 7.89 7.94 10.00 $449 42 1.53% 5690 8.02 8.02 10.00 $449 43 1.27% 8054 7.89 8.23 10.00 $449 44 2.32% 5379 7.90 8.89 10.00 $449 45 0.49% 10343 7.92 7.88 10.00 $449 46 0.52% 8896 7.91 8.05 10.00 $449 47 2.20% 7395 7.99 8.11 10.00 $449 48 3.48% 8426 7.89 7.95 10.00 $449 49 1.27% 6262 8.02 8.04 10.00 $449 50 0.68% 4294 7.97 8.12 10.00 $449 51 0.25% 2985 8.09 8.36 10.00 $449 52 0.15% 6355 7.95 7.86 10.00 $449 53 0.34% 5163 7.95 8.01 10.00 $449 54 1.60% 4850 8.02 8.19 10.00 $449

## 98 Avg **98 Marg Baseline**  **Building ID Weight**  **UEC ElecRate**  **ElecRate SEER**  **Mfg Cost** (kWh) cent/kWh cent/kWh 55 0.92% 5107 7.98 8.02 10.00 $449 56 0.24% 4665 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449 57 0.78% 10262 7.84 7.92 10.00 $449 58 0.44% 7203 7.81 8.15 10.00 $449 59 0.07% 12571 7.89 7.72 10.00 $449 60 0.27% 11656 7.88 7.84 10.00 $449 61 0.82% 9368 7.96 7.95 10.00 $449 62 0.57% 10452 7.86 7.83 10.00 $449 63 0.54% 9140 7.92 7.92 10.00 $449 64 0.21% 3035 7.98 8.13 10.00 $449 65 0.10% 2067 8.10 8.41 10.00 $449 66 0.12% 5379 7.96 7.86 10.00 $449 67 0.11% 3545 7.96 8.09 10.00 $449 68 0.82% 3934 8.02 8.11 10.00 $449 69 0.63% 4586 7.99 8.11 10.00 $449 70 0.12% 4297 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449 71 1.94% 6192 7.97 8.21 10.00 $449 72 1.46% 4233 8.09 8.49 10.00 $449 73 0.44% 10083 7.93 7.80 10.00 $449 74 0.71% 7384 7.92 7.95 10.00 $449 75 3.43% 6973 7.99 8.02 10.00 $449 76 3.19% 8426 7.89 7.89 10.00 $449 77 2.19% 5010 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449 78 3.19% 8426 7.89 7.89 10.00 $449 79 2.19% 5010 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449RECS HH Data

**HOUSEHOLD DATA FROM 1993 RECS**

**House ID Sampled 1**  **Adjusted RECS97** **CDD CDD**  **93 Avg 93 Marginal Rate**  **Large Year**  **Alloc. Yr. Made**  **93 Marg Equip.**  **MEAN Furnace**  **Baseline RECS**  **House ID Weight**  **UEC UEC**  **65 65-30**  **ElecRate Summer**  **Winter Division**  **State Made**  **Group Group**  **ElecRate Age idx**  **SEER Check**  **Mfg Cost House ID**  **HOUSE ID 1**  **(1000Btu)**(1000Btu) cent/kWh in 93$/kWh cent/kWh **HOUSEHOLD INFORMATION** 1 8712 **3292** 1717 603 1156 7.8 $0.068 $0.072 4 0 5 **4** 2 6.9 4 8.36 1 $367 1004 **Equip Age Index 4**  2 21990 **4097** 3197 572 733 7.4 $0.059 $0.062 3 0 5 **3** 2 5.9 3 9.19 1 $367 1009 **Equip. Age 14**  3 28529 **12058** 8111 1792 2664 6.6 $0.063 $0.058 7 3 4 **8** 2 6.2 2 10.57 1 $367 1013 4 16659 **11667** 8038 505 733 7.5 $0.072 $0.069 3 0 6 **3** 2 7.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1029 **SEER 8.36**  5 9874 **6748** 5291 1402 1788 6.2 $0.068 $0.046 6 0 10 **7** 4 6.4 3 9.19 1 $367 1030 **UEC 965**  kWh/yr **Age Avg.**  **Age** 6 26445 **14990** 17628 862 733 7.0 $0.083 $0.044 3 0 1 **3** 1 7.9 3 9.19 1 $367 1037 **Index Age**  **Dist.** 7 17593 **13019** 10328 2522 3179 8.4 $0.080 $0.084 5 4 8 **6** 3 8.2 1 10.57 1 $367 1040 **Avg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 7.77**  cents/kWh **1 1**  **1** 8 17657 **1413** 773 704 1287 12.3 $0.134 $0.128 9 2 5 **12** 2 13.2 1 10.57 2 $449 1048 **Marg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 6.86**  cents/kWh **2 3**  **3** 9 18325 **1701** 1409 607 733 6.9 $0.063 $0.061 3 0 1 **3** 1 6.2 1 10.57 1 $367 1051 **3 7**  **7** 10 12952 **1355** 1706 923 733 7.7 $0.077 $0.073 3 0 2 **3** 1 7.7 1 10.57 1 $367 1054 **Avg. Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 8.10**  cents/kWh **4 14**  **14** 11 6781 **3883** 1720 512 1156 7.1 $0.066 $0.067 4 0 1 **4** 1 6.6 3 9.19 1 $367 1055 **Marg. Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 7.16**  cents/kWh **5 20**  **20** 12 26834 **17663** 5717 335 1035 6.5 $0.061 $0.062 2 0 1 **2** 1 6.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1066 **96 10**  **10** 13 19833 **5782** 3463 439 733 6.5 $0.061 $0.056 3 0 1 **3** 1 6.0 4 8.36 1 $367 1068 **Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $367**  **7 10**  **10** 14 52122 **12347** 9625 1722 2209 6.9 $0.054 $0.058 7 0 7 **9** 3 5.5 4 8.36 1 $367 1075 **8 10**  **10** 15 13353 **7200** 910 328 2595 6.7 $0.057 $0.055 8 0 1 **10** 1 5.6 3 9.19 1 $367 1078 **RECS House ID** 1004 **99 10**  **10** 16 17237 **9731** 3648 388 1035 6.7 $0.062 $0.063 2 0 7 **2** 3 6.2 4 8.36 1 $367 1095 **RECS Weight** 8712 17 21987 **2960** 3822 1662 1287 12.3 $0.136 $0.138 9 2 8 **12** 3 13.7 3 9.19 2 $449 1096 **RECS UEC** 3292 18 18279 **8655** 3720 1145 2664 6.8 $0.068 $0.064 7 3 4 **8** 2 6.7 2 10.57 1 $367 1125 19 35673 **8024** 6702 1845 2209 9.8 $0.082 $0.094 7 0 7 **9** 3 8.5 4 8.36 1 $367 1131 20 11832 **744** 864 682 587 9.6 $0.088 $0.085 1 0 6 **1** 2 8.7 4 8.36 2 $449 1133 **Conversion from 1997$ to 1998$ 0.98**  21 13398 **8591** 15398 4651 2595 11.5 $0.095 $0.094 8 0 8 **10** 3 9.5 3 9.19 1 $367 1135 **Conversion from 1997 in 1997$ to 2001 in 2001$ 1.04**  22 13591 **5036** 3075 632 1035 8.7 $0.075 $0.079 2 0 8 **2** 3 7.5 3 9.19 2 $449 1141 23 20342 **1904** 1797 1091 1156 8.8 $0.070 $0.071 4 0 4 **4** 2 7.0 5 7.18 1 $367 1142 **Wt.Avg. Average Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 9.07**  cents/kWh 24 5714 **3371** 2415 1281 1788 6.7 $0.066 $0.059 6 0 5 **7** 2 6.5 5 7.18 2 $449 1158 **Wt.Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 8.79**  cents/kWh 25 16987 **8064** 5666 515 733 7.3 $0.062 $0.065 3 0 8 **3** 3 6.3 3 9.19 1 $367 1159 **HELP**

Page 1 **Wt.Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 8.79**  cents/kWh 25 16987 **8064** 5666 515 733 7.3 $0.062 $0.065 3 0 8 **3** 3 6.3 3 9.19 1 $367 1159 **Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 8.90**  cents/kWh 26 12055 **5427** 6450 1374 1156 7.0 $0.088 $0.043 4 0 1 **4** 1 8.1 3 9.19 1 $367 1162 **Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 8.62**  cents/kWh 27 23139 **5269** 3170 441 733 6.4 $0.058 $0.059 3 0 8 **3** 3 5.8 3 9.19 1 $367 1169 28 13447 **8063** 6264 1389 1788 6.6 $0.062 $0.058 6 0 6 **7** 2 6.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1188 **Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 9.46**  cents/kWh 29 10285 **55568**34808 1120 1788 5.7 $0.048 $0.053 6 0 12 **7** 4 4.9 2 10.57 1 $367 1190 **Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 9.16**  cents/kWh 30 10985 **3756** 1758 541 1156 7.6 $0.084 $0.068 4 0 1 **4** 1 8.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1193 31 12782 **8771** 9159 2782 2664 7.6 $0.068 $0.088 7 3 4 **8** 2 7.1 3 9.19 1 $367 1196 **Wt. Avg. Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $388.1**  32 17321 **11198** 8504 1187 1563 8.2 $0.116 $0.062 5 0 13 **5** 4 11.0 2 10.57 1 $367 1198 33 11411 **11378** 7363 1724 2664 6.1 $0.067 $0.038 7 3 3 **8** 2 6.3 3 9.19 1 $367 1211 **1997 RECS** 34 14991 **3023** 2734 663 733 7.9 $0.084 $0.060 3 0 7 **3** 3 8.2 3 9.19 2 $449 1216 **HH Average UEC 2132**  kWh/yr 35 74274 **1951** 848 366 842 16.5 $0.126 $0.126 2 1 9 **2** 4 12.6 3 9.19 1 $367 1219 **HH Average SEER 9.13**  36 16010 **3501** 5174 1902 1287 13.2 $0.154 $0.134 9 2 4 **12** 2 14.7 5 7.18 2 $449 1223 37 17001 **1505** 655 319 733 6.6 $0.067 $0.064 3 0 7 **3** 3 6.7 3 9.19 2 $449 1225 38 38338 **3400** 2365 720 1035 12.7 $0.134 $0.118 2 0 7 **2** 3 13.3 4 8.36 1 $367 1228 **CPI 1997** 160.5 39 26430 **11814** 2422 532 2595 5.0 $0.047 $0.049 8 0 15 **10** 4 4.8 1 10.57 1 $367 1235 **CPI 2001** 177.1 40 20548 **13765** 11933 1915 2209 9.3 $0.095 $0.088 7 0 6 **9** 2 9.3 4 8.36 1 $367 1240 41 11622 **17549** 11974 1220 1788 5.0 $0.078 $0.040 6 0 5 **7** 2 7.2 3 9.19 2 $449 1242 **CPI 2001/1997** 1.10 42 19833 **4699** 2686 419 733 9.1 $0.100 $0.086 3 0 2 **3** 1 9.9 3 9.19 1 $367 1243 43 28108 **1499** 1841 900 733 6.4 $0.078 $0.046 3 0 5 **3** 2 7.5 96 8.92 2 $449 1244 **AEO2002 2001/1997** 0.94 44 79333 **8803** 9908 825 733 7.3 $0.051 $0.050 3 0 10 **3** 4 5.1 3 9.19 1 $367 1250 **HELP**

Page 1

## ELECTRICITY PRICE PROJECTIONS

**LIST OF PROJECTIONS : - 1**  **Constant 2002 2**  **AEO 2002 - Reference Case 3**  **GRI 1998 4**  **AEO 2002 - High Growth Case 5**  **AEO 2002 - Low Growth**

**Electricity Price Projections Electricity Price Trends**  **Const. AEO2002**  **GRI 98 High**  **Low Const.**  **AEO2002 GRI 98**  **High Low** 

**cents / kWh (in 2000 dollar)** 1995 1996 1997 8.88 8.88 8.88 8.88 8.88 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1998 8.53 8.53 8.53 8.53 8.53 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1999 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 2000 8.31 8.31 8.50 8.31 8.31 0.99 0.99 1.01 0.99 0.99 2001 8.39 8.39 8.38 8.39 8.39 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2002 8.39 8.00 8.27 8.15 7.98 1.00 0.95 0.99 0.97 0.95 2003 8.39 7.74 8.15 7.85 7.69 1.00 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.92 2004 8.39 7.71 8.03 7.88 7.62 1.00 0.92 0.96 0.94 0.91 2005 8.39 7.64 7.92 7.86 7.52 1.00 0.91 0.94 0.94 0.90 2006 8.39 7.62 7.82 7.87 7.50 1.00 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.89 2007 8.39 7.62 7.73 7.89 7.49 1.00 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.89 2008 8.39 7.63 7.64 7.96 7.48 1.00 0.91 0.91 0.95 0.89 2009 8.39 7.63 7.54 7.98 7.47 1.00 0.91 0.90 0.95 0.89 2010 8.39 7.65 7.45 8.00 7.45 1.00 0.91 0.89 0.95 0.89 2011 8.39 7.67 7.39 8.05 7.47 1.00 0.91 0.88 0.96 0.89 2012 8.39 7.62 7.32 8.01 7.43 1.00 0.91 0.87 0.95 0.89 2013 8.39 7.61 7.26 7.98 7.42 1.00 0.91 0.87 0.95 0.88 2014 8.39 7.58 7.20 7.94 7.36 1.00 0.90 0.86 0.95 0.88 2015 8.39 7.57 7.14 7.93 7.31 1.00 0.90 0.85 0.95 0.87 2016 8.39 7.61 7.06 8.00 7.32 1.00 0.91 0.84 0.95 0.87 2017 8.39 7.64 6.99 8.04 7.31 1.00 0.91 0.83 0.96 0.87 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025**E l** **e c** **P r** **i c** **e (** **c e** **n t** **s /** **k W** **h )** **2 0** **0 0** **$ Residential Electricity Price Projections** 

Constant
AEO2002 Ref Case
GRI '98
AEO2002 Hi Growth
AEO2002 Low Growth

2017 8.39 7.64 6.99 8.04 7.31 1.00 0.91 0.83 0.96 0.87 2018 8.39 7.67 6.92 8.10 7.32 1.00 0.91 0.83 0.96 0.87 2019 8.39 7.68 6.85 8.13 7.32 1.00 0.92 0.82 0.97 0.87 2020 8.39 7.69 6.78 8.15 7.32 1.00 0.92 0.81 0.97 0.87 2021 8.39 7.70 6.71 8.16 7.31 1.00 0.92 0.80 0.97 0.87 2022 8.39 7.70 6.64 8.18 7.29 1.00 0.92 0.79 0.97 0.87 2023 8.39 7.71 6.57 8.20 7.28 1.00 0.92 0.78 0.98 0.87 2024 8.39 7.71 6.50 8.21 7.27 1.00 0.92 0.78 0.98 0.87 2025 8.39 7.72 6.43 8.23 7.25 1.00 0.92 0.77 0.98 0.86 2026 8.39 7.72 6.37 8.24 7.24 1.00 0.92 0.76 0.98 0.86 2027 8.39 7.73 6.30 8.26 7.23 1.00 0.92 0.75 0.98 0.86 2028 8.39 7.73 6.24 8.27 7.21 1.00 0.92 0.74 0.99 0.86 2029 8.39 7.74 6.17 8.29 7.20 1.00 0.92 0.74 0.99 0.86 2030 8.39 7.74 6.11 8.30 7.19 1.00 0.92 0.73 0.99 0.86

2021-2030Electricity prices are trended from the growth rate between 2010 and 2020 for AEO 2002 Reference, High Growth and Low Growth Cases 2016-2030Electricity prices are trended from the growth rate between 2005 and 2015 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
**Year**2030 2035

### Central Air Conditioner **Percentage Distribution by Efficiency (SEER) for Central A/C's in 1997**

(1995-1997 set to be the same as 1994)

**AGE 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **5 6**  **7 8**  **9 10**  **11 12**  **13 14**  **15 16**  **17 18**  **19 20**  **21 22**  **23 24** 

**9.7** 2.5% **9.7** 2.5% **9.7** 2.5% **9.7** 2.5% **9.7** 3.3% **9.7** 16.1% **7.3** 0.1% **7.3** 4.9% **7.3** 0.2% **5.3** 0.0% **5.3** 0.0% **5.3** 0.0% **5.3** 0.0% **5.3** 0.1% **5.3** 0.0% **5.3** 0.0% **5.3** 0.0% **5.3** 0.0% **5.3** 0.1% **5.3** 0.1% **5.3** 0.2% **5.3** 0.1% **5.3** 0.1% **5.3** 0.1% **5.3** 0.1% **10.2** 76.7% **10.2** 76.7% **10.2** 76.7% **10.2** 76.7% **10.2** 77.3% **10.2** 67.0% **7.7** 0.1% **7.7** 0.2% **7.7** 0.1% **5.7** 0.0% **5.7** 0.0% **5.7** 0.0% **5.7** 0.1% **5.7** 0.0% **5.7** 0.1% **5.7** 0.1% **5.7** 0.2% **6.0** 8.3% **6.0** 6.7% **6.0** 9.1% **6.0** 17.4% **6.0** 20.0% **6.0**20.0% **6.0** 20.0% **6.0** 20.0% **10.7** 1.0% **10.7** 1.0% **10.7** 1.0% **10.7** 1.0% **10.7** 1.6% **10.7** 1.7% **8.2** 19.7% **8.2**21.1% **8.2** 26.4% **6.2** 0.0% **6.2** 0.0% **6.2** 0.0% **6.2** 0.0% **6.2** 0.2% **6.2** 0.5% **6.2** 0.9% **6.2** 5.1% **7.0**42.6% **7.0** 49.2% **7.0** 54.8% **7.0** 52.4% **7.0** 56.4% **7.0**56.4% **7.0** 56.4% **7.0** 56.4% **11.2** 5.0% **11.2** 5.0% **11.2** 5.0% **11.2** 5.0% **11.2** 6.0% **11.2** 6.0% **8.7** 6.9% **8.7** 7.9% **8.7** 5.9% **6.7** 0.1% **6.7** 1.2% **6.7** 1.2% **6.7** 2.0% **6.7** 3.0% **6.7** 6.5% **6.7** 7.7% **6.7** 17.0% **8.0**33.5% **8.0** 30.8% **8.0** 25.8% **8.0** 24.3% **8.0** 18.3% **8.0**18.3% **8.0** 18.3% **8.0** 18.3% **11.7** 0.6% **11.7** 0.6% **11.7** 0.6% **11.7** 0.6% **11.7** 0.7% **11.7** 0.9% **9.2** 34.2% **9.2**34.1% **9.2** 39.3% **7.2** 0.2% **7.2** 0.3% **7.2** 0.3% **7.2** 2.5% **7.2** 4.3% **7.2** 7.9% **7.2** 8.5% **7.2** 20.6% **9.0**12.9% **9.0** 11.6% **9.0** 8.2% **9.0** 5.4% **9.0** 5.1% **9.0** 5.1% **9.0** 5.1% **9.0** 5.1% **12.2** 10.6% **12.2** 10.6% **12.2** 10.6% **12.2** 10.6% **12.2** 8.3% **12.2** 5.8% **9.7** 11.0% **9.7**12.8% **9.7** 8.9% **7.7** 2.3% **7.7** 4.0% **7.7** 4.0% **7.7** 1.3% **7.7** 1.3% **7.7** 4.8% **7.7** 7.2% **7.7** 14.0% **10.0** 1.8% **10.0** 1.5% **10.0** 2.0% **10.0** 0.3% **10.0** 0.0% **10.0** 0.0% **10.0** 0.0% **10.0** 0.0% **12.7** 2.0% **12.7** 2.0% **12.7** 2.0% **12.7** 2.0% **12.7** 1.8% **12.7** 2.0% **10.2** 17.5% **10.2**12.6%**10.2** 13.0% **8.2**24.8% **8.2** 24.4% **8.2** 24.4% **8.2** 28.3% **8.2** 35.9% **8.2** 38.8% **8.2** 33.6% **8.2** 22.1% **11.0** 0.9% **11.0** 0.0% **11.0** 0.0% **11.0** 0.0% **11.0** 0.0% **11.0** 0.0% **11.0** 0.0% **11.0** 0.0% **13.2** 1.3% **13.2** 1.3% **13.2** 1.3% **13.2** 1.3% **13.2** 0.7% **13.2** 0.5% **10.7** 2.5% **10.7** 1.3%**10.7** 1.6% **8.7**18.9% **8.7** 24.6% **8.7** 24.6% **8.7** 28.0% **8.7** 24.5% **8.7** 22.6% **8.7** 28.1% **8.7** 13.2% **11.6** 0.0% **11.6** 0.0% **11.6** 0.0% **11.6** 0.0% **11.6** 0.0% **11.6** 0.0% **11.6** 0.0% **11.6** 0.0% **13.7** 0.0% **13.7** 0.0% **13.7** 0.0% **13.7** 0.0% **13.7** 0.0% **13.7** 0.0% **11.2** 2.8% **11.2** 2.6%**11.2** 3.6% **9.2**29.2% **9.2** 26.4% **9.2** 26.4% **9.2** 26.6% **9.2** 22.7% **9.2** 12.7% **9.2** 9.6% **9.2** 3.8% **14.2** 0.1% **14.2** 0.1% **14.2** 0.1% **14.2** 0.1% **14.2** 0.1% **14.2** 0.0% **11.7** 0.2% **11.7** 0.2%**11.7** 0.8% **9.7** 9.4% **9.7** 7.7% **9.7** 7.7% **9.7** 3.2% **9.7** 1.4% **9.7** 1.7% **9.7** 2.0% **9.7** 1.3% **14.7** 0.0% **14.7** 0.0% **14.7** 0.0% **14.7** 0.0% **14.7** 0.0% **14.7** 0.0% **12.2** 5.1% **12.2** 2.3%**12.2** 0.1% **10.2**10.7% **10.2** 7.6% **10.2** 7.6% **10.2** 5.0% **10.2** 4.6% **10.2** 3.1% **10.2** 1.4% **10.2** 2.3% **15.2** 0.1% **15.2** 0.1% **15.2** 0.1% **15.2** 0.1% **15.2** 0.1% **15.2** 0.1% **10.7** 1.8% **10.7** 1.5% **10.7** 1.5% **10.7** 2.0% **10.7** 1.4% **10.7** 0.8% **10.7** 0.5% **10.7** 0.0% **11.2** 2.5% **11.2** 1.9% **11.2** 1.9% **11.2** 0.3% **11.2** 0.1% **11.2** 0.1% **11.2** 0.3% **11.2** 0.3% **11.7** 0.1% **11.7** 0.3% **11.7** 0.3% **11.7** 0.5% **11.7** 0.4% **11.7** 0.4% **11.7** 0.1% **11.7** 0.1% **Total** 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% **SWEF** 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.51 10.39 9.45 9.19 9.20 9.05 8.92 8.92 8.77 8.61 8.36 8.26 7.74 7.60 7.52 7.39 7.18 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08 **% Incr.**  0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 9.9% 2.8% -0.1% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8% 3.1% 1.1% 6.7% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7% 2.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

**CB Dist. 10.57**  **10.57 10.57**  **10.57 10.51**  **10.39 9.45**  **9.19 9.20**  **9.05 8.92**  **8.92 8.77**  **8.61 8.36**  **8.26 7.74**  **7.60 7.52**  **7.39 7.18**  **7.08 7.08**  **7.08 7.08** **Allocation** 

### Large **Season**

**Group YEARMADE**  **WINTER SUMMER** **WINTER SUMMER** **WINTER SUMMER**  

### Division **State Alloc Grp** 
1 1,2 7% 93% 97% 3% 88% 12% 

### 1 **1**

3 thru 6 7% 93% 98% 2% 89% 11% 

### 2 **2** 7,8 6% 94% 98% 2% 89% 11% 

### 3 **3** 9 thru 16 6% 94% 98% 2% 87% 13% 

### 4 **4**
2 1,2 8% 92% 99% 1% 85% 15% 

### 5 **0 5** 

3 thru 6 8% 92% 99% 1% 86% 14% 

### 5 **4 6**  7,8 5% 95% 99% 1% 83% 17% 

### 6 **7** 9 thru 16 4% 96% 99% 1% 84% 16% 

### 7 **3 8** 
3 1,2 9% 91% 98% 2% 86% 14% 

### 7 **0 9** 

3 thru 6 9% 91% 99% 1% 89% 11% 

### 8 **10** 7,8 9% 91% 99% 1% 87% 13% 

### 9 **0 11**  9 thru 16 10% 90% 99% 1% 84% 16% 

### 9 **2 12** 
4 1,2 15% 85% 98% 2% 73% 27%

3 thru 6 14% 86% 99% 1% 74% 26% 7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 72% 28% 9 thru 16 12% 88% 99% 1% 67% 33% 5 1,2 16% 84% 99% 1% 78% 22%

3 thru 6 16% 84% 99% 1% 79% 21% 7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 73% 27% 9 thru 16 11% 89% 99% 1% 75% 25%
6 1,2 46% 54% 100% 0% 50% 50%

3 thru 6 44% 56% 100% 0% 47% 53% 7,8 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55% 9 thru 16 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55% 7 1,2 21% 79% 99% 1% 72% 28%

3 thru 6 17% 83% 100% 0% 74% 26% 7,8 17% 83% 100% 0% 62% 38% 9 thru 16 16% 84% 100% 0% 62% 38%
8 1,2 18% 82% 100% 0% 56% 44%

3 thru 6 15% 85% 100% 0% 54% 46% 7,8 14% 86% 100% 0% 50% 50% 9 thru 16 13% 87% 100% 0% 52% 48% 9 1,2 32% 68% 99% 1% 55% 45%

3 thru 6 29% 71% 99% 1% 52% 48% 7,8 26% 74% 99% 1% 47% 53% 9 thru 16 25% 75% 99% 1% 48% 52% 10 1,2 29% 71% 100% 0% 45% 55%

3 thru 6 23% 77% 100% 0% 36% 64% 7,8 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68% 9 thru 16 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68%
11 1,2 2% 98% 90% 10% 87% 13%

3 thru 6 2% 98% 91% 9% 89% 11% 7,8 2% 98% 93% 7% 88% 12% 9 thru 16 1% 99% 93% 7% 89% 11% 12 1,2 29% 71% 93% 7% 80% 20%

3 thru 6 34% 66% 93% 7% 84% 16% 7,8 42% 58% 92% 8% 81% 19% 9 thru 16 44% 56% 92% 8% 82% 18% **Seasonal Allocation Factors Cooling Only**  **Heating Only Heating & Cooling** **NOMINA L First Mortgage Rate Data**  **NEW ESTIMA**

**TE (1998 Survey of Consumer Finances)** Mortgage Weight **Nominal interest rate** Rate Percent Mortgage Bin **Finance Method Min**  **Max Mean**  0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0 to 1 NOMINAL New home 0.0% 20.0% 7.9% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2 NOMINAL 2nd mortgage 0.0% 22.0% 10.3% 2.6% 0.1% 2.6 2 to 3 NOMINAL Credit card 0.0% 39.0% 13.5% 3.0% 0.2% 3.0 3 to 4 4.4% 0.3% 4.4 4 to 5 28%**TA X**  5.5% 0.9% 5.5 5 to 6 1.56%**1998 INFLA**

**TION** 6.6% 13.9% 6.6 6 to 7 7.4% 41.3% 7.4 7 to 8 **COMPOSITE -- NEW CONSTRUCTION A ND REPLA** **CEMENT/RETROFIT** 8.3% 25.0% 8.3 8 to 9 **Real interest rate** 9.3% 8.6% 9.3 9 to 10 **Finance Method Share**  **Min Max**  **Mean** 10.1% 5.0% 10.1 10 to 11 REAL New home (after tax) 34% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2% 11.1% 1.3% 11.1 11 to 12 REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 2% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 12.1% 1.7% 12.1 12 to 13 REAL Credit card 21% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 13.5% 0.5% 13.5 13 to 14 REAL Transaction accounts 24% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 14.1% 0.3% 14.1 14 to 15 REAL CD (6 month) 4% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 15.0% 0.0% 15.0 15 to 16 REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 5% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 16.0% 0.3% 16.0 16 to 17 REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 5% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 18.0% 0.1% 18.0 18 to 19 REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 4% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 19.0% 0.0% 19.0 19 to 20

**Total Share** 100% **Wtd A verage**  5.60% 20.0% 0.1% 20.0 20 to 21

**7.94% NEW CONSTRUCTION ONLY**  **Real interest rate**

**Finance Method Share**  **Min Max**  **Mean** REAL New home (after tax) 100% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2%

**REPLA CEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY**  **NOMINAL Credit Card Interest Rate Data Real interest rate**  CC Weight **Finance Method Share**  **Min Max**  **Mean** Rate Percent CC Bin REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 3% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0 0 to 1 REAL Credit card 32% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0 1 to 2 REAL Transaction accounts 36% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 2 to 3 REAL CD (6 month) 6% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 3.8% 1.2% 3.8 3 to 4 REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 8% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 4.9% 3.2% 4.9 4 to 5 REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 5.8% 4.4% 5.8 5 to 6 REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 8% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 6.4% 2.2% 6.4 6 to 7 REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 7% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 7.6% 1.5% 7.6 7 to 8

**Total Share** 100% **Wtd A verage**  6.33% 8.4% 1.9% 8.4 8 to 9 9.5% 5.5% 9.5 9 to 10 1 3% 10.3% 1.9% 10.3 10 to 11 2 32% 11.4% 3.3% 11.4 11 to 12 3 36% 12.4% 8.4% 12.4 12 to 13 4 6% 13.3% 5.0% 13.3 13 to 14 5 8% 14.3% 6.1% 14.3 14 to 15 6 1% 15.3% 6.1% 15.3 15 to 16 7 8% 16.3% 4.3% 16.3 16 to 17 8 7% 17.3% 5.1% 17.3 17 to 18 18.1% 13.8% 18.1 18 to 19 Finanace Method Retro 4 19.3% 8.9% 19.3 19 to 20 Real Interest Rate Retro 2.4% 20.1% 1.9% 20.1 20 to 21 21.1% 5.8% 21.1 21 to 22 22.2% 1.6% 22.2 22 to 23 

### New/Retrofit Group 1 1=New, 2=Retrofit 23.1% 0.5% 23.1 23 to 24 24.3% 0.4% 24.3 24 to 25 25.0% 0.0% 25.0 25 to 26 34% 66% 26.0% 0.0% 26.0 26 to 27 27.0% 0.0% 27.0 27 to 28 28.0% 0.0% 28.0 28 to 29 29.0% 0.0% 29.0 29 to 30 30.0% 0.0% 30.0 30 to 31 31.0% 0.0% 31.0 31 to 32 32.0% 0.0% 32.0 32 to 33 33.0% 0.0% 33.0 33 to 34 34.0% 0.0% 34.0 34 to 35 35.0% 0.0% 35.0 35 to 36 36.0% 0.0% 36.0 36 to 37 37.0% 0.0% 37.0 37 to 38 38.0% 0.0% 38.0 38 to 39 39.0% 0.1% 39.0 39 to 40

**13.51% NOMINAL Second Mortgage Rate Data**  **REA L Gains and Losses for Various A**  **ssets** 2nd Mort Weight S&P 500 Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. Treasury S&P 500 Rate Percent 2nd Mort Bin Year Mut Fund Stocks Bonds CDs Sav Bonds Mut Fund 0.0% 1.8% 0.0 0 to 1 1999 13% 60% 5% 3% 3% 13% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2 1998 24% 34% 5% 4% 3% 24% 2.5% 1.7% 2.5 2 to 3 1997 21% 12% 5% 3% 3% 21% 3.6% 0.7% 3.6 3 to 4 1996 14% 19% 4% 3% 2% 14% 4.0% 0.0% 4.0 4 to 5 1995 28% 36% 5% 3% 3% 28% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0 5 to 6 1994 -7% -9% 5% 2% 2% -7% 6.5% 3.7% 6.5 6 to 7 1993 3% 9% 4% 0% 0% 3% 7.5% 8.3% 7.5 7 to 8 1992 4% 6% 5% 1% 1% 4% 8.3% 15.8% 8.3 8 to 9 1991 17% 37% 5% 2% 1% 17% 9.2% 16.3% 9.2 9 to 10 1990 -5% -16% 4% 3% 2% -5% 10.2% 15.8% 10.2 10 to 11 1989 14% 9% 4% 4% 3% 14% 11.3% 3.1% 11.3 11 to 12 1988 4% 7% 6% 4% 3% 4% 12.3% 13.3% 12.3 12 to 13 1987 -14% -19% 6% 3% 3% -14% 13.3% 5.2% 13.3 13 to 14 1986 12% 2% 7% 5% 4% 12% 14.1% 7.7% 14.1 14 to 15 1985 14% 13% 8% 5% 4% 14% 15.0% 1.9% 15.0 15 to 16 1984 -2% 8% 6% 6% -2% 16.0% 0.0% 16.0 16 to 17 1983 10% 9% 6% 6% 10% 17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 1982 11% 8% 6% 5% 11% 18.0% 2.0% 18.0 18 to 19 1981 -16% 4% 5% 3% -16% 19.0% 1.0% 19.0 19 to 20 1980 5% -2% -1% -3% 5% 20.0% 0.0% 20.0 20 to 21 1979 -3% -2% 0% -2% -3% 21.0% 0.0% 21.0 21 to 22 1978 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 22.0% 1.6% 22.0 22 to 23 1977 -13% 2% -1% -1% -13% 1976 1% 3% 0% 0% 1% **10.30%** 1975 8% -2% -3% 8% 1974 -40% -1% -3% -40% 1973 -22% 3% 1% -22% 1972 10% 2% 2% 10% 1971 2% 1% 0% 2% 1970 3% 2% 1% 3% 1969 -16% 2% 1% -16% 1968 8% 2% 1% 8% 1967 8% 2% 2% 8% 1966 -16% 3% 2% -16% 1965 4% 3% 2% 4% 1964 9% 3% 2% 9% 1963 12% 2% 12% 1962 -9% 2% -9% 1961 15% 2% 15% 1960 3% 2% 3% 1959 7% 4% 7% 1958 30% 30% 1957 -14% -14% 1956 5% 5% 1955 25% 25% 1954 37% 37% 1953 -7% -7% 1952 8% 8% 1951 2% 2% 1950 18% 18% **Average** 4% 13% 5% 2% 2% **Minimum** -40% -19% -2% -2% -3% **Maximum** 37% 60% 9% 6% 6%Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. Treasury

Stocks Bonds CDs Sav Bonds 1 60% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1 1 34% 1 5% 1 4% 1 3% 1 1 12% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1 1 19% 1 4% 1 3% 1 2% 1 1 36% 1 5% 1 3% 1 3% 1 1 -9% 1 5% 1 2% 1 2% 1 1 9% 1 4% 1 0% 1 0% 1 1 6% 1 5% 1 1% 1 1% 1 1 37% 1 5% 1 2% 1 1% 1 1 -16% 1 4% 1 3% 1 2% 1 1 9% 1 4% 1 4% 1 3% 1 1 7% 1 6% 1 4% 1 3% 1 1 -19% 1 6% 1 3% 1 3% 1 1 2% 1 7% 1 5% 1 4% 1 1 13% 1 8% 1 5% 1 4% 1 1 8% 1 6% 1 6% 1 1 9% 1 6% 1 6% 1 1 8% 1 6% 1 5% 1 1 4% 1 5% 1 3% 1 1 -2% 1 -1% 1 -3% 1 1 -2% 1 0% 1 -2% 1 1 1% 1 1% 1 0% 1 1 2% 1 -1% 1 -1% 1 1 3% 1 0% 1 0% 1 1 -2% 1 -3% 1 1 -1% 1 -3% 1 1 3% 1 1% 1 1 2% 1 2% 1 1 1% 1 0% 1 1 2% 1 1% 1 1 2% 1 1% 1 1 2% 1 1% 1 1 2% 1 2% 1 1 3% 1 2% 1 1 3% 1 2% 1 1 3% 1 2% 1 1 2% 1 1 2% 1 1 2% 1 1 2% 1 1 4% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

## Lifetime



# SURVIVAL FUNCTION OF CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS

**Lifetim e Distribution**  **18.4 years**  **Average Life 18.4** **years**

**Fraction Fraction**  **Age Retired**  **Surv** 0 0.000 1.000 1 0.002 0.998 2 0.002 0.996 3 0.002 0.994 4 0.002 0.992 5 0.002 0.990 6 0.002 0.988 7 0.001 0.987 8 0.012 0.976 9 0.019 0.956 10 0.026 0.930 11 0.033 0.897 12 0.039 0.858 13 0.043 0.815 14 0.046 0.769 15 0.049 0.720 16 0.051 0.669 17 0.053 0.616 

## 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0 5 10 15 20 25**% S** **u r** **v i** **v i** **n g**  

# Survival Function of Central A **/C**

Page 1 17 0.053 0.616 18 0.056 0.560 19 0.060 0.500 20 0.067 0.433 21 0.078 0.355 22 0.093 0.262 23 0.116 0.146 24 0.146 0.000

**Source:** M.E. Bucher, C.M. Grastataro, W.R. Coleman. 1990. "Heat Pump Life and Compressor Longevity in Diverse Climates." ASHRAE Transactions. AT-90-29-3. 

## 0% 10%

0 5 10 15 20 25 **Ag e** **(y ear)** 



## Page 1

## Setup



# PLEASE DO NOT CHANGE ANYTHING HERE



# User Choices **AEO 2002 - Reference Case**
**FPindex** 

## 2 **Projection Trend**  **StartYear 2006**  **Elec Elec**  **Elec BaseOpt**  **1 SEER = 10.00**  cent/kWh cent/kWh cent/kWh **StdOpt 19**  **SEER = 13.4 1998**  8.53 1.02 **1998** 8.53 **1999** 8.30 0.99 **2000** 8.31 **CB 0**  **2000** 8.31 0.99 **2010** 7.65 **2001** 8.39 1.00 **2020** 7.69 Multi-Run Options: **2002** 8.00 0.95 **2030** 7.74 **StdOptBegin 2**  **2003** 7.74 0.92 2000-2030 **StdOptEnd 19**  **2004** 7.71 0.92 Growth -0.2% **2005** 7.64 0.91 Comm./Resid. Choice **2 <-This cell is dynam** **ically defined when 2006**  7.62 0.91 **user updates the % com** **m. and %** **resid. 2007**  7.62 0.91 % Shipment Breakdown (Don’t change assumptions here) **2008** 7.63 0.91 Commercial **1 10.0%**  **2009** 7.63 0.91 Residential **2 90.0%**  **2010** 7.65 0.91 **2011** 7.67 0.91 **2012** 7.62 0.91 **2013** 7.61 0.91 **2014** 7.58 0.90 **2015** 7.57 0.90

Page 1 **2016** 7.61 0.91 **2017** 7.64 0.91 **2018** 7.67 0.91 **2019** 7.68 0.92 **2020** 7.69 0.92 **2021** 7.70 0.92 **2022** 7.70 0.92 **2023** 7.71 0.92 **2024** 7.71 0.92 **2025** 7.72 0.92 **2026** 7.72 0.92 **2027** 7.73 0.92 **2028** 7.73 0.92 **2029** 7.74 0.92 **2030** 7.74 0.92

Page 1

# PLEASE DO NOT CHANGE ANYTHING HERE

**LIST OF FUEL PRICE PROJECTIONS : - 1**  **Constant 2002 2**  **AEO 2002 - Reference Case 3**  **GRI 1998 4**  **AEO 2002 - High Growth Case 5**  **AEO 2002 - Low Growth**

**LIST OF DESIGN OPTIONS : - 0**  **SEER = 10.00 1**  **SEER = 10.15 2**  **SEER = 10.29 3**  **SEER = 10.41 4**  **SEER = 10.51 5**  **SEER = 10.59 6**  **SEER = 10.65 7**  **SEER = 10.71 8**  **SEER = 10.77 9**  **SEER = 10.82 10**  **SEER = 10.87 11**  **SEER = 10.92 12**  **SEER = 10.97 13**  **SEER = 11.0 14**  **SEER = 11.5 15**  **SEER = 12.0 16**  **SEER = 12.5 17**  **SEER = 13.0 18**  **SEER = 13.4**



## LIST OF START YEARS :-

**2005 2006**  **2007 2008**  **2009 2010** 

**Labels: (Do not touch!) Cum** **ulative Cost (discounted at 5.6%)**