What do the Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) spreadsheets do?

The LCC spreadsheets perform calculations to determine life-cycle cost and payback periods. The LCC spreadsheets operate in Excel 2000. The Excel 

add-on Crystal Ball allows the user to perform uncertainty analysis on key input variables. 

What are the Worksheets in the Workbook?

Each LCC spreadsheet or workbook consists of the following worksheets:

LCC (Sample Calc) contains the input selections and a summary table of energy use, operating costs, LCC and Payback.

 

LCC (Simulations) contains the input selections as in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet. If Crystal Ball is running, the energy, cost, LCC, and payback 

data are from the current sample. If Crystal Ball has finished running, the data are from the final sample.

Engineering contains the consumer prices at each efficiency level. Also included are the installation price, and the repair and maintenance costs.

RECS HH Data for each sample household, contains average and marginal electricity prices, annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating 

energy consumption for heat pumps), the geographic location, the year the household was built, and the equipment’s age index.

COMM Data for each sample building, contains average and marginal electricity prices, and annual space-cooling energy consumption (and space-heating 

energy consumption for heat pumps).

Energy Price contains projections of future energy prices from various sources.

SEER Dist contains historical shipment-weighted efficiency data by year; this is used for determining the probable SEER of existing space-conditioning 

equipment based on age.

Seasonal Allocation Factors contains seasonal (i.e., summer and non-summer) allocation factors of annual cooling (or heating) energy which indicate the fraction used by 

season. The seasonal allocation factors are based on the age and the geographic location of the household. The factors are used for 

determining the annual marginal electricity rate. Summer and non-summer allocation factors are multiplied by summer and non-summer 

marginal rates, respectively, and then summed to arrive at the annual marginal rate.

drate dist contains data from which an average discount rate and a distribution of discount rates are determined.

Lifetime contains the survival function for central air conditioners and heat pumps and the average central air conditioner and heat pump lifetime 

in years.

Setup this is used as an interface between user inputs and the rest of the worksheets -- do not modify this sheet.

How does the user operate the spreadsheet?

To execute the spreadsheets fully you will need both Microsoft Excel and Crystal Ball software. Both applications are commercially available. Crystal ball is available 

at http://www.decisioneering.com.

1) Once you have downloaded the LCC file from the Web, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for sheet LCC (Sample Calc) 

or LCC (Simulations). 

2) Use Excel’s commands at the top View/Zoom to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.
3) The user interacts with the spreadsheet by clicking choices or entering data using the graphical interface that comes with the spreadsheet. 

Choices can be selected from the box labeled List Inputs on either of two worksheets: 

a) LCC (Sample Calc) or,

b) LCC (Simulations).

A change in either input sheet also changes the other. In the box titled List Inputs select choices from the selection boxes for the following: 

(1) energy price projection, (2) start year, (3) base case design, (4) standard case design, (5) manufacturer cost data, and 

(6) system type (split or single package). A new discount rate or lifetime can also be entered if a value other than the default value or default 

distribution is wanted, however, this would change the code and we do not recommend saving the spreadsheet after the code is changed.

a) energy price projection,

b) start year,

c) base case design, 

d) standard case design, 

e) system type (split or single package) (this choice appears just outside of the List Inputs box),

f) price multipler (either ARI Mean manufacuturer cost multipliers or Reverse Engineering manufacturer cost multipliers),

g) markups (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer, distributor, dealer, and builder markups and sales tax), and

h) price multiplier (gives the user the option to input their own manufacturer cost multiplier).

4) To change assumptions on List Inputs click on the assumption you wish to change, click on the new assumption from the menu. 

5) This spreadsheet gives the user two methods of running the spreadsheet. 

a) If the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet is chosen, then all calculations are performed for single input values, usually an average. The new 

results are shown on the same sheet as soon as the new values are entered.

b) Alternately, if the LCC (Simulations) sheet is used, the spreadsheet generates results that are distributions. Some of the inputs are 

also distributions. The results from the LCC distribution are shown as single values and refer only to the results from the last 

Monte Carlo sample and are therefore not meaningful. To run the distribution version of the spreadsheet the Excel add-in software 

called Crystal Ball must be enabled.

What is the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet used for? 

LCC difference and Payback as provided in the LCC (Sample Calc) sheet are based on single-point values. This page can be used to see the effect of changing a single 

parameter. 

How does the user run the Crystal Ball simulation? (LCC Simulations sheet)

To produce sensitivity results using Crystal Ball, you need simply select Run from the Run menu (on the menu bar). To make basic changes in the run sequence, including 

altering the number of trials, select Run Preferences from the Run menu. After each simulation run, the user needs to select Reset (also from the Run menu) before Run can 

be selected again. Once Crystal Ball has completed its run sequence it will produce a series of distributions. Using the menu bars on the distribution results it is possible to 

obtain further statistical information. The time taken to complete a run sequence can be reduced by minimizing the Crystal Ball window in Excel. 

A step by step summary of the procedure, for running a distribution analysis, is outlined below:

1) Find the Crystal Ball toolbar (at top of screen)

2) Click on RUN

3) Select Preference and choose from the following choices:

a) Monte Carlo

b) Latin Hypercube (recommended)

c) Initial seed choices and whether you want it to be constant between runs
d) Select number of Monte Carlo Trials (we suggest 10,000).

4) To run the simulation, follow the following sequence (on the Crystal Ball toolbar)

RUN

RESET

RUN

5) Now wait until the program informs you that the simulation is completed.

What kind of output does Crystal Ball generate?

1) After the simulation has finished, to see the distribution charts generated, click on the Windows tab bar that is labeled Crystal Ball.

 

2) The life-cycle cost savings and payback periods are defined as Forecast cells. The frequency charts display the results of the simulations, 

or trials, performed by Crystal Ball. Click on any chart to bring it into view. The charts show the low and high endpoints of the forecasts. 

The View selection on the Crystal Ball toolbar can be used to specify whether you want cumulative or frequency plots shown.

3) To calculate the probability of that LCC savings will occur, either type 0 in the box by the right arrow, or move the arrow key with the cursor 

to 0 on the scale. The value in the Certainty box shows the likelihood that the LCC savings will occur. To calculate the certainty of payback 

period being below a certain number of years, choose that value as the high endpoint.

4) To generate a printout report, select Create Report from the Run menu. The toolbar choice of Forecast Windows allows you to select the 

charts and statistics you are interested in. For further information on Crystal Ball outputs, please refer to Understanding the Forecast Chart

 in the Crystal Ball manual.
LIFE CYCLE COST OF SDHV - CRYSTAL BALL SIMULATIONS, November 2002

 Dollar Values in 2001 $

LIST INPUTS

ELECTRICITY PRICE (cent/kWh) Average Marginal

ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase 2006 7.47 6.60

Year Equip. Retires 2023 7.43 6.57

BASE CASE DESIGN

SEER 10 CHANGE SEER 13.4

STANDARD CASE DESIGN % SHIPMENT Total Installed Price $6,177 $1,283 21% $7,460

 Comm. 10% Annual Repair & Maint. $101 $26 25% $126

 Resd. 90% Compressor Repl. Cost $363 $135 37% $498

LIFETIME (years) 18.4

DISCOUNT RATE 4.2% Annual kWh Use 806 -203 -25% 604 Payback

Annual Operating Cost (years)

ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 2001 (cent/kWh) 2006 $161 $12 8% $173 1000.0

Average 8.10

Marginal 7.16 Cumulative Cash Flow $9,486 $1,644 17% $11,130

Life-Cycle Cost ($) $8,412 $1,515 18% $9,927

BUILDING UEC (kWh) 965 IRR (Internal rate of return) #DIV/0!

BUILDING SEER 8.4

AEO 2002 - Reference Case 2006

SEER = 10.00

SEER = 13.4

Fuel Price

Comparion

Fuel Price

Comparion

Show Plot

Show Inputs

Update

AEO 2002 - Reference Case 2006

SEER = 10.00

SEER = 13.4

Fuel Price

Comparion

Fuel Price

Comparion

Show Plot

Show Inputs

Update

Elec Price (cent/kWh) Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow Disc.

Age Year Average Marginal Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Factor

2001 8.10 7.16 

$6,177 $7,460 $1,283 $6,177 $7,460 $1,283 $6,177 $7,460 $1,283 

1 2006 7.47 6.60 $161 $173 $12 $6,337 $7,633 $1,295 $6,331 $7,626 $1,295 0.96

2 2007 7.44 6.57 $161 $173 $12 $6,498 $7,805 $1,308 $6,479 $7,785 $1,306 0.92

3 2008 7.37 6.52 $160 $172 $12 $6,658 $7,978 $1,320 $6,621 $7,937 $1,317 0.88

4 2009 7.35 6.50 $160 $172 $12 $6,818 $8,150 $1,332 $6,756 $8,084 $1,327 0.85

5 2010 7.35 6.50 $160 $172 $12 $6,978 $8,322 $1,345 $6,887 $8,224 $1,338 0.82

6 2011 7.36 6.51 $160 $172 $12 $7,138 $8,494 $1,357 $7,012 $8,359 $1,347 0.78

7 2012 7.36 6.51 $160 $172 $12 $7,298 $8,667 $1,369 $7,132 $8,489 $1,356 0.75

8 2013 7.38 6.52 $160 $172 $12 $7,458 $8,839 $1,381 $7,248 $8,613 $1,365 0.72

9 2014 7.40 6.54 $160 $173 $12 $7,618 $9,012 $1,394 $7,359 $8,732 $1,374 0.69

10 2015 7.36 6.50 $160 $172 $12 $7,778 $9,184 $1,406 $7,465 $8,847 $1,382 0.67

11 2016 7.35 6.49 $160 $172 $12 $7,938 $9,356 $1,418 $7,567 $8,957 $1,390 0.64

12 2017 7.32 6.47 $160 $172 $12 $8,097 $9,528 $1,431 $7,665 $9,062 $1,397 0.61

13 2018 7.31 6.46 $159 $172 $12 $8,257 $9,700 $1,443 $7,759 $9,164 $1,405 0.59

14 2019 7.34 6.49 $523 $670 $147 $8,779 ####### $1,590 $8,054 $9,542 $1,488 0.57

15 2020 7.37 6.51 $160 $172 $12 $8,939 ####### $1,603 $8,141 $9,636 $1,495 0.54

16 2021 7.40 6.54 $160 $173 $12 $9,100 ####### $1,615 $8,224 $9,725 $1,501 0.52

17 2022 7.41 6.55 $160 $173 $12 $9,260 ####### $1,627 $8,305 $9,812 $1,507 0.50

18 2023 7.43 6.56 $160 $173 $12 $9,421 ####### $1,639 $8,382 $9,895 $1,513 0.48

19 2024 7.43 6.57 $160 $173 $12 $9,581 ####### $1,651 $8,456 $9,974 $1,519 0.46

20 2025 7.44 6.57 $161 $173 $12 $9,742 $9,742 ####### ####### $1,664 $1,664 $8,527 $8,527 ####### ####### $1,524 $1,524 0.44

21 2026 7.44 6.58 $161 $173 $12 $9,902 ####### $1,676 $8,595 ####### $1,529 0.42

22 2027 7.45 6.58 $161 $173 $12 ####### ####### $1,688 $8,660 ####### $1,534 0.41

23 2028 7.45 6.58 $161 $173 $12 ####### ####### $1,700 $8,723 ####### $1,539 0.39

24 2029 7.45 6.59 $161 $173 $12 ####### ####### $1,712 $8,784 ####### $1,543 0.38

25 2030 7.46 6.59 $161 $173 $12 ####### ####### $1,725 $8,842 ####### $1,548 0.36

LIFE CYCLE COST OF SDHV - SAMPLE CALCULATION (AVERAGE VALUES), November 2002

 Dollar Values in 2001 $

LIST INPUTS

ELECTRICITY PRICE (cent/kWh) Average Marginal

ENERGY PRICE PROJECTION START YEAR Year of Purchase 2006 8.64 8.40

Year Equip. Retires 2023 8.59 8.36

BASE CASE DESIGN

SEER 10 CHANGE SEER 13.4

STANDARD CASE DESIGN Total Installed Price $6,177 $1,283 21% $7,460

Annual Repair & Maint. $101 $26 25% $126

Compressor Repl. Cost $363 $135 37% $498

LIFETIME (years) 18.4

DISCOUNT RATE 5.6% Annual kWh Use 2305 -579 -25% 1726 Payback

Annual Operating Cost (years)

ELECTRICITY PRICE IN 2001 (cent/kWh) 2006 $300 -$23 -8% $277 55.4

Average 9.36

Marginal 9.11 Cumulative Cash Flow $12,012 $1,003 8% $13,015

Life-Cycle Cost ($) $9,709 $1,091 11% $10,799

AVERAGE UEC (kWh) 2501 IRR (Internal rate of return) #NUM!

AVERAGE SEER 9.2

AEO 2002 - Reference Case 2006

SEER = 10.00

SEER = 13.4

Fuel Price

Comparion

Fuel Price

Comparion

Show Plot

Show Inputs

AEO 2002 - Reference Case 2006

SEER = 10.00

SEER = 13.4

Fuel Price

Comparion

Fuel Price

Comparion

Show Plot

Show Inputs

Elec Price (cent/kWh) Annual Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow Discounted Cash Flow Disc.

Age Year Average Marginal Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Base Standard Diff. Factor

2001 9.36 9.11 

$6,177 $7,460 $1,283 $6,177 $7,460 $1,283 $6,177 $7,460 $1,283 

1 2006 8.64 8.40 $300 $277 -$23 $6,476 $7,736 $1,260 $6,460 $7,722 $1,261 0.95

2 2007 8.60 8.37 $299 $276 -$23 $6,775 $8,012 $1,237 $6,728 $7,969 $1,241 0.90

3 2008 8.52 8.29 $297 $275 -$23 $7,072 $8,287 $1,215 $6,981 $8,202 $1,222 0.85

4 2009 8.50 8.27 $297 $274 -$22 $7,369 $8,561 $1,192 $7,219 $8,423 $1,204 0.80

5 2010 8.50 8.27 $297 $274 -$22 $7,665 $8,835 $1,170 $7,445 $8,632 $1,186 0.76

6 2011 8.52 8.28 $297 $274 -$22 $7,962 $9,110 $1,147 $7,659 $8,830 $1,170 0.72

7 2012 8.51 8.28 $297 $274 -$22 $8,259 $9,384 $1,125 $7,862 $9,017 $1,155 0.68

8 2013 8.53 8.30 $297 $275 -$23 $8,556 $9,659 $1,102 $8,054 $9,195 $1,140 0.65

9 2014 8.56 8.33 $298 $275 -$23 $8,854 $9,934 $1,080 $8,237 $9,363 $1,126 0.61

10 2015 8.51 8.28 $297 $274 -$22 $9,151 ####### $1,057 $8,409 $9,523 $1,113 0.58

11 2016 8.50 8.26 $296 $274 -$22 $9,448 ####### $1,035 $8,572 $9,673 $1,101 0.55

12 2017 8.46 8.23 $296 $274 -$22 $9,743 ####### $1,013 $8,726 $9,815 $1,090 0.52

13 2018 8.45 8.22 $295 $273 -$22 ####### ####### $990 $8,871 $9,950 $1,079 0.49

14 2019 8.49 8.26 $659 $772 $112 ####### ####### $1,103 $9,179 ####### $1,131 0.47

15 2020 8.52 8.29 $297 $275 -$23 ####### ####### $1,080 $9,310 ####### $1,121 0.44

16 2021 8.56 8.33 $298 $275 -$23 ####### ####### $1,058 $9,435 ####### $1,112 0.42

17 2022 8.57 8.34 $298 $275 -$23 ####### ####### $1,035 $9,553 ####### $1,103 0.40

18 2023 8.59 8.35 $299 $276 -$23 ####### ####### $1,012 $9,665 ####### $1,094 0.38

19 2024 8.59 8.36 $299 $276 -$23 ####### ####### $989 $9,771 ####### $1,086 0.36

20 2025 8.60 8.36 $299 $276 -$23 ####### ####### ####### ####### $966 $9,872 $9,872 ####### ####### $1,078 $1,078 0.34

21 2026 8.60 8.37 $299 $276 -$23 ####### ####### $943 $9,967 ####### $1,071 0.32

22 2027 8.61 8.37 $299 $276 -$23 ####### ####### $920 ####### ####### $1,064 0.30

23 2028 8.61 8.38 $299 $276 -$23 ####### ####### $897 ####### ####### $1,057 0.29

24 2029 8.62 8.38 $299 $276 -$23 ####### ####### $874 ####### ####### $1,051 0.27

25 2030 8.63 8.39 $299 $276 -$23 ####### ####### $851 ####### ####### $1,045 0.26

SMALL DUCT, HIGH VELOCITY SYSTEMS: COST AND EFFICIENCY DATA

Total

% Over Consumer Equipment Price Installed Annual Annual Compr.

Baseline (2001$) Cost Repair Maint. SEER Price

Level Description SEER Minimum Average Maximum Std Dev Total (2001$) (2001$) (2001$) (Btu/Whr) (2001$)

0 SEER = 10.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $2,067 $6,177 $61 $40 10.00 $363

1 SEER = 10.15 1.5% $21.08 $26.35 $31.62 $2.63 $2,093 $6,203 $61 $40 10.15 $363

2 SEER = 10.29 2.9% $42.16 $52.70 $63.24 $5.27 $2,120 $6,229 $61 $40 10.29 $363

3 SEER = 10.41 4.1% $63.24 $79.05 $94.86 $7.91 $2,146 $6,256 $61 $40 10.41 $363

4 SEER = 10.51 5.1% $84.32 $105.40 $126.48 $10.54 $2,172 $6,282 $61 $40 10.51 $363

5 SEER = 10.59 5.9% $105.40 $131.75 $158.10 $13.18 $2,199 $6,308 $61 $40 10.59 $363

6 SEER = 10.65 6.5% $126.48 $158.10 $189.72 $15.81 $2,225 $6,335 $61 $40 10.65 $363

7 SEER = 10.71 7.1% $147.56 $184.45 $221.34 $18.45 $2,251 $6,361 $61 $40 10.71 $363

8 SEER = 10.77 7.7% $168.64 $210.80 $252.96 $21.08 $2,278 $6,387 $61 $40 10.77 $363

9 SEER = 10.82 8.2% $189.72 $237.15 $284.58 $23.72 $2,304 $6,414 $61 $40 10.82 $363

10 SEER = 10.87 8.7% $210.80 $263.50 $316.20 $26.35 $2,330 $6,440 $61 $40 10.87 $363

11 SEER = 10.92 9.2% $231.88 $289.85 $347.82 $28.99 $2,357 $6,466 $61 $40 10.92 $363

12 SEER = 10.97 9.7% $252.96 $316.20 $379.44 $31.62 $2,383 $6,493 $61 $40 10.97 $363

13 SEER = 11.0 10% $260.61 $325.76 $390.91 $32.58 $2,393 $6,502 $62 $40 11.0 $391

14 SEER = 11.5 15% $344.93 $431.16 $517.39 $43.12 $2,498 $6,608 $62 $40 11.5 $391

15 SEER = 12.0 20% $534.65 $668.31 $801.97 $66.83 $2,735 $6,845 $62 $40 12.0 $391

16 SEER = 12.5 25% $668.20 $835.25 $1,002.29 $83.52 $2,902 $7,012 $86 $40 12.5 $498

17 SEER = 13.0 30% $857.92 $1,072.40 $1,286.87 $107.24 $3,139 $7,249 $86 $40 13.0 $498

18 SEER = 13.4 34% $1,026.56 $1,283.20 $1,539.83 $128.32 $3,350 $7,460 $86 $40 13.4 $498

Service Cost (98$) $36 CPI 1998 163.0

Installation Cost (2001$) $1,390 CPI 2001 177.1

Air Distribution System (2001$) $2,720 CPI 2002/1998 1.09
COMMERCIAL BUILDING DATA

Building ID Sampled 1

Building ID 1

BUILDING INFORMATION

SEER 10.00

UEC 5488 kWh/yr

Avg. Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 8.50 cents/kWh

Marg. Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 8.39 cents/kWh

Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $449

Wt. Avg. Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $449.0

Wt. Avg. SEER 10.0

Wt. Avg. UEC (kWh/yr) 5,824

Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 7.95

Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price (cent/kWh in 98$) 8.08

Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 2001 (cent/kWh in 2001$) 8.49

Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 2001 (cent/kWh in 2001$) 8.64

CPI 1998 163.0

CPI 2001 177.1

CPI 2001/1998 1.09

AEO2002 2001/1998 0.98

CPI ratio * AEO ratio 1.07

98 Avg 98 Marg Baseline

Building ID Weight UEC ElecRate ElecRate SEER Mfg Cost

(kWh) cent/kWh cent/kWh

1 0.37% 3814 7.89 7.97 10.00 $449

2 0.79% 2782 7.84 8.45 10.00 $449

3 0.07% 5488 7.95 7.85 10.00 $449

4 0.33% 4356 7.94 7.97 10.00 $449

5 1.02% 4026 8.01 8.13 10.00 $449

6 1.50% 4461 7.90 7.96 10.00 $449

7 0.50% 3653 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

8 1.01% 3814 7.89 7.97 10.00 $449

9 1.79% 2782 7.84 8.45 10.00 $449

10 0.23% 5488 7.95 7.85 10.00 $449

11 0.28% 4356 7.94 7.97 10.00 $449

12 2.99% 4026 8.01 8.13 10.00 $449

13 3.66% 4461 7.90 7.96 10.00 $449

14 1.84% 3653 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

15 1.34% 3541 7.90 8.02 10.00 $449

16 2.01% 2435 7.92 8.28 10.00 $449

17 0.86% 5119 7.95 7.89 10.00 $449

18 0.96% 3982 7.95 8.01 10.00 $449

19 3.05% 3747 8.01 8.11 10.00 $449

20 3.85% 4129 7.91 8.00 10.00 $449

21 2.92% 3336 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

22 0.77% 3673 7.97 8.10 10.00 $449

23 1.07% 2552 7.92 8.56 10.00 $449

24 0.12% 5196 7.95 7.88 10.00 $449

25 0.39% 4091 7.95 8.02 10.00 $449

26 1.52% 3805 8.01 8.12 10.00 $449

27 2.27% 4058 7.91 7.94 10.00 $449

28 0.64% 3497 8.03 8.03 10.00 $449

29 1.64% 8202 7.88 8.06 10.00 $449

30 2.37% 5470 7.88 8.48 10.00 $449

31 0.58% 10514 7.92 7.81 10.00 $449

32 1.40% 8984 7.91 7.95 10.00 $449

33 4.53% 7499 7.99 8.05 10.00 $449

34 5.49% 8497 7.88 7.91 10.00 $449

35 2.50% 6458 8.02 8.02 10.00 $449

36 1.06% 6862 7.89 8.14 10.00 $449

37 0.80% 4610 7.90 8.60 10.00 $449

38 0.30% 9116 7.93 7.84 10.00 $449

39 0.66% 7575 7.92 8.03 10.00 $449

40 1.21% 6521 8.00 8.08 10.00 $449

41 3.12% 7437 7.89 7.94 10.00 $449

42 1.53% 5690 8.02 8.02 10.00 $449

43 1.27% 8054 7.89 8.23 10.00 $449

44 2.32% 5379 7.90 8.89 10.00 $449

45 0.49% 10343 7.92 7.88 10.00 $449

46 0.52% 8896 7.91 8.05 10.00 $449

47 2.20% 7395 7.99 8.11 10.00 $449

48 3.48% 8426 7.89 7.95 10.00 $449

49 1.27% 6262 8.02 8.04 10.00 $449

50 0.68% 4294 7.97 8.12 10.00 $449

51 0.25% 2985 8.09 8.36 10.00 $449

52 0.15% 6355 7.95 7.86 10.00 $449

53 0.34% 5163 7.95 8.01 10.00 $449

54 1.60% 4850 8.02 8.19 10.00 $449
98 Avg 98 Marg Baseline

Building ID Weight UEC ElecRate ElecRate SEER Mfg Cost

(kWh) cent/kWh cent/kWh

55 0.92% 5107 7.98 8.02 10.00 $449

56 0.24% 4665 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449

57 0.78% 10262 7.84 7.92 10.00 $449

58 0.44% 7203 7.81 8.15 10.00 $449

59 0.07% 12571 7.89 7.72 10.00 $449

60 0.27% 11656 7.88 7.84 10.00 $449

61 0.82% 9368 7.96 7.95 10.00 $449

62 0.57% 10452 7.86 7.83 10.00 $449

63 0.54% 9140 7.92 7.92 10.00 $449

64 0.21% 3035 7.98 8.13 10.00 $449

65 0.10% 2067 8.10 8.41 10.00 $449

66 0.12% 5379 7.96 7.86 10.00 $449

67 0.11% 3545 7.96 8.09 10.00 $449

68 0.82% 3934 8.02 8.11 10.00 $449

69 0.63% 4586 7.99 8.11 10.00 $449

70 0.12% 4297 8.03 8.04 10.00 $449

71 1.94% 6192 7.97 8.21 10.00 $449

72 1.46% 4233 8.09 8.49 10.00 $449

73 0.44% 10083 7.93 7.80 10.00 $449

74 0.71% 7384 7.92 7.95 10.00 $449

75 3.43% 6973 7.99 8.02 10.00 $449

76 3.19% 8426 7.89 7.89 10.00 $449

77 2.19% 5010 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449

78 3.19% 8426 7.89 7.89 10.00 $449

79 2.19% 5010 8.03 8.05 10.00 $449
RECS HH Data

HOUSEHOLD DATA FROM 1993 RECS

House ID Sampled 1 Adjusted RECS97 CDD CDD 93 Avg 93 Marginal Rate Large Year Alloc. Yr. Made 93 Marg Equip. MEAN Furnace Baseline RECS

House ID Weight UEC UEC 65 65-30 ElecRate Summer Winter Division State Made Group Group ElecRate Age idx SEER Check Mfg Cost House ID

HOUSE ID 1 (1000Btu) (1000Btu) cent/kWh in 93$/kWh cent/kWh

HOUSEHOLD INFORMATION 1 8712 3292 1717 603 1156 7.8 $0.068 $0.072 4 0 5 4 2 6.9 4 8.36 1 $367 1004 

 Equip Age Index 4 2 21990 4097 3197 572 733 7.4 $0.059 $0.062 3 0 5 3 2 5.9 3 9.19 1 $367 1009 

 Equip. Age 14 3 28529 12058 8111 1792 2664 6.6 $0.063 $0.058 7 3 4 8 2 6.2 2 10.57 1 $367 1013 

4 16659 11667 8038 505 733 7.5 $0.072 $0.069 3 0 6 3 2 7.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1029 

 SEER 8.36 5 9874 6748 5291 1402 1788 6.2 $0.068 $0.046 6 0 10 7 4 6.4 3 9.19 1 $367 1030 

 UEC 965 kWh/yr Age Avg. Age 6 26445 14990 17628 862 733 7.0 $0.083 $0.044 3 0 1 3 1 7.9 3 9.19 1 $367 1037 

Index Age Dist. 7 17593 13019 10328 2522 3179 8.4 $0.080 $0.084 5 4 8 6 3 8.2 1 10.57 1 $367 1040 

 Avg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 7.77 cents/kWh 1 1 1 8 17657 1413 773 704 1287 12.3 $0.134 $0.128 9 2 5 12 2 13.2 1 10.57 2 $449 1048 

 Marg. Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 6.86 cents/kWh 2 3 3 9 18325 1701 1409 607 733 6.9 $0.063 $0.061 3 0 1 3 1 6.2 1 10.57 1 $367 1051 

3 7 7 10 12952 1355 1706 923 733 7.7 $0.077 $0.073 3 0 2 3 1 7.7 1 10.57 1 $367 1054 

 Avg. Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 8.10 cents/kWh 4 14 14 11 6781 3883 1720 512 1156 7.1 $0.066 $0.067 4 0 1 4 1 6.6 3 9.19 1 $367 1055 

 Marg. Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 7.16 cents/kWh 5 20 20 12 26834 17663 5717 335 1035 6.5 $0.061 $0.062 2 0 1 2 1 6.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1066 

96 10 10 13 19833 5782 3463 439 733 6.5 $0.061 $0.056 3 0 1 3 1 6.0 4 8.36 1 $367 1068 

 Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $367 7 10 10 14 52122 12347 9625 1722 2209 6.9 $0.054 $0.058 7 0 7 9 3 5.5 4 8.36 1 $367 1075 

8 10 10 15 13353 7200 910 328 2595 6.7 $0.057 $0.055 8 0 1 10 1 5.6 3 9.19 1 $367 1078 

RECS House ID 1004 99 10 10 16 17237 9731 3648 388 1035 6.7 $0.062 $0.063 2 0 7 2 3 6.2 4 8.36 1 $367 1095 

RECS Weight 8712 17 21987 2960 3822 1662 1287 12.3 $0.136 $0.138 9 2 8 12 3 13.7 3 9.19 2 $449 1096 

RECS UEC 3292 18 18279 8655 3720 1145 2664 6.8 $0.068 $0.064 7 3 4 8 2 6.7 2 10.57 1 $367 1125 

19 35673 8024 6702 1845 2209 9.8 $0.082 $0.094 7 0 7 9 3 8.5 4 8.36 1 $367 1131 

20 11832 744 864 682 587 9.6 $0.088 $0.085 1 0 6 1 2 8.7 4 8.36 2 $449 1133 

Conversion from 1997$ to 1998$ 0.98 21 13398 8591 15398 4651 2595 11.5 $0.095 $0.094 8 0 8 10 3 9.5 3 9.19 1 $367 1135 

Conversion from 1997 in 1997$ to 2001 in 2001$ 1.04 22 13591 5036 3075 632 1035 8.7 $0.075 $0.079 2 0 8 2 3 7.5 3 9.19 2 $449 1141 

23 20342 1904 1797 1091 1156 8.8 $0.070 $0.071 4 0 4 4 2 7.0 5 7.18 1 $367 1142 

Wt.Avg. Average Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 9.07 cents/kWh 24 5714 3371 2415 1281 1788 6.7 $0.066 $0.059 6 0 5 7 2 6.5 5 7.18 2 $449 1158 

Wt.Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 8.79 cents/kWh 25 16987 8064 5666 515 733 7.3 $0.062 $0.065 3 0 8 3 3 6.3 3 9.19 1 $367 1159 

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Wt.Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1997 (97$) 8.79 cents/kWh 25 16987 8064 5666 515 733 7.3 $0.062 $0.065 3 0 8 3 3 6.3 3 9.19 1 $367 1159 

Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 8.90 cents/kWh 26 12055 5427 6450 1374 1156 7.0 $0.088 $0.043 4 0 1 4 1 8.1 3 9.19 1 $367 1162 

Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 1998 (98$) 8.62 cents/kWh 27 23139 5269 3170 441 733 6.4 $0.058 $0.059 3 0 8 3 3 5.8 3 9.19 1 $367 1169 

28 13447 8063 6264 1389 1788 6.6 $0.062 $0.058 6 0 6 7 2 6.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1188 

Wt. Avg. Average Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 9.46 cents/kWh 29 10285 55568 34808 1120 1788 5.7 $0.048 $0.053 6 0 12 7 4 4.9 2 10.57 1 $367 1190 

Wt. Avg. Marginal Elec Price in 2001 (2001$) 9.16 cents/kWh 30 10985 3756 1758 541 1156 7.6 $0.084 $0.068 4 0 1 4 1 8.1 4 8.36 1 $367 1193 

31 12782 8771 9159 2782 2664 7.6 $0.068 $0.088 7 3 4 8 2 7.1 3 9.19 1 $367 1196 

Wt. Avg. Baseline Mfg Cost (98$) $388.1 32 17321 11198 8504 1187 1563 8.2 $0.116 $0.062 5 0 13 5 4 11.0 2 10.57 1 $367 1198 

33 11411 11378 7363 1724 2664 6.1 $0.067 $0.038 7 3 3 8 2 6.3 3 9.19 1 $367 1211 

1997 RECS 34 14991 3023 2734 663 733 7.9 $0.084 $0.060 3 0 7 3 3 8.2 3 9.19 2 $449 1216 

 HH Average UEC 2132 kWh/yr 35 74274 1951 848 366 842 16.5 $0.126 $0.126 2 1 9 2 4 12.6 3 9.19 1 $367 1219 

 HH Average SEER 9.13 36 16010 3501 5174 1902 1287 13.2 $0.154 $0.134 9 2 4 12 2 14.7 5 7.18 2 $449 1223 

37 17001 1505 655 319 733 6.6 $0.067 $0.064 3 0 7 3 3 6.7 3 9.19 2 $449 1225 

38 38338 3400 2365 720 1035 12.7 $0.134 $0.118 2 0 7 2 3 13.3 4 8.36 1 $367 1228 

CPI 1997 160.5 39 26430 11814 2422 532 2595 5.0 $0.047 $0.049 8 0 15 10 4 4.8 1 10.57 1 $367 1235 

CPI 2001 177.1 40 20548 13765 11933 1915 2209 9.3 $0.095 $0.088 7 0 6 9 2 9.3 4 8.36 1 $367 1240 

41 11622 17549 11974 1220 1788 5.0 $0.078 $0.040 6 0 5 7 2 7.2 3 9.19 2 $449 1242 

CPI 2001/1997 1.10 42 19833 4699 2686 419 733 9.1 $0.100 $0.086 3 0 2 3 1 9.9 3 9.19 1 $367 1243 

43 28108 1499 1841 900 733 6.4 $0.078 $0.046 3 0 5 3 2 7.5 96 8.92 2 $449 1244 

AEO2002 2001/1997 0.94 44 79333 8803 9908 825 733 7.3 $0.051 $0.050 3 0 10 3 4 5.1 3 9.19 1 $367 1250 

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ELECTRICITY PRICE PROJECTIONS

LIST OF PROJECTIONS : -

1 Constant 2002

2 AEO 2002 - Reference Case

3 GRI 1998

4 AEO 2002 - High Growth Case

5 AEO 2002 - Low Growth

Electricity Price Projections Electricity Price Trends

Const. AEO2002 GRI 98 High Low Const. AEO2002 GRI 98 High Low

cents / kWh (in 2000 dollar)

1995

1996

1997 8.88 8.88 8.88 8.88 8.88 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06

1998 8.53 8.53 8.53 8.53 8.53 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02

1999 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 8.30 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99

2000 8.31 8.31 8.50 8.31 8.31 0.99 0.99 1.01 0.99 0.99

2001 8.39 8.39 8.38 8.39 8.39 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

2002 8.39 8.00 8.27 8.15 7.98 1.00 0.95 0.99 0.97 0.95

2003 8.39 7.74 8.15 7.85 7.69 1.00 0.92 0.97 0.94 0.92

2004 8.39 7.71 8.03 7.88 7.62 1.00 0.92 0.96 0.94 0.91

2005 8.39 7.64 7.92 7.86 7.52 1.00 0.91 0.94 0.94 0.90

2006 8.39 7.62 7.82 7.87 7.50 1.00 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.89

2007 8.39 7.62 7.73 7.89 7.49 1.00 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.89

2008 8.39 7.63 7.64 7.96 7.48 1.00 0.91 0.91 0.95 0.89

2009 8.39 7.63 7.54 7.98 7.47 1.00 0.91 0.90 0.95 0.89

2010 8.39 7.65 7.45 8.00 7.45 1.00 0.91 0.89 0.95 0.89

2011 8.39 7.67 7.39 8.05 7.47 1.00 0.91 0.88 0.96 0.89

2012 8.39 7.62 7.32 8.01 7.43 1.00 0.91 0.87 0.95 0.89

2013 8.39 7.61 7.26 7.98 7.42 1.00 0.91 0.87 0.95 0.88

2014 8.39 7.58 7.20 7.94 7.36 1.00 0.90 0.86 0.95 0.88

2015 8.39 7.57 7.14 7.93 7.31 1.00 0.90 0.85 0.95 0.87

2016 8.39 7.61 7.06 8.00 7.32 1.00 0.91 0.84 0.95 0.87

2017 8.39 7.64 6.99 8.04 7.31 1.00 0.91 0.83 0.96 0.87

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Elec Price (cents/kWh) 2000$

Residential Electricity Price Projections

Constant

AEO2002 Ref Case

GRI '98

AEO2002 Hi Growth

AEO2002 Low Growth

2017 8.39 7.64 6.99 8.04 7.31 1.00 0.91 0.83 0.96 0.87

2018 8.39 7.67 6.92 8.10 7.32 1.00 0.91 0.83 0.96 0.87

2019 8.39 7.68 6.85 8.13 7.32 1.00 0.92 0.82 0.97 0.87

2020 8.39 7.69 6.78 8.15 7.32 1.00 0.92 0.81 0.97 0.87

2021 8.39 7.70 6.71 8.16 7.31 1.00 0.92 0.80 0.97 0.87

2022 8.39 7.70 6.64 8.18 7.29 1.00 0.92 0.79 0.97 0.87

2023 8.39 7.71 6.57 8.20 7.28 1.00 0.92 0.78 0.98 0.87

2024 8.39 7.71 6.50 8.21 7.27 1.00 0.92 0.78 0.98 0.87

2025 8.39 7.72 6.43 8.23 7.25 1.00 0.92 0.77 0.98 0.86

2026 8.39 7.72 6.37 8.24 7.24 1.00 0.92 0.76 0.98 0.86

2027 8.39 7.73 6.30 8.26 7.23 1.00 0.92 0.75 0.98 0.86

2028 8.39 7.73 6.24 8.27 7.21 1.00 0.92 0.74 0.99 0.86

2029 8.39 7.74 6.17 8.29 7.20 1.00 0.92 0.74 0.99 0.86

2030 8.39 7.74 6.11 8.30 7.19 1.00 0.92 0.73 0.99 0.86

2021-2030 Electricity prices are trended from the growth rate between 2010 and 2020 for AEO 2002 Reference, High Growth and Low Growth Cases

2016-2030 Electricity prices are trended from the growth rate between 2005 and 2015

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year
2030 2035
Central Air Conditioner

Percentage Distribution by Efficiency (SEER) for Central A/C's in 1997

(1995-1997 set to be the same as 1994)

AGE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

9.7 2.5% 9.7 2.5% 9.7 2.5% 9.7 2.5% 9.7 3.3% 9.7 16.1% 7.3 0.1% 7.3 4.9% 7.3 0.2% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.1% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.0% 5.3 0.1% 5.3 0.1% 5.3 0.2% 5.3 0.1% 5.3 0.1% 5.3 0.1% 5.3 0.1%

10.2 76.7% 10.2 76.7% 10.2 76.7% 10.2 76.7% 10.2 77.3% 10.2 67.0% 7.7 0.1% 7.7 0.2% 7.7 0.1% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.1% 5.7 0.0% 5.7 0.1% 5.7 0.1% 5.7 0.2% 6.0 8.3% 6.0 6.7% 6.0 9.1% 6.0 17.4% 6.0 20.0% 6.0 20.0% 6.0 20.0% 6.0 20.0%

10.7 1.0% 10.7 1.0% 10.7 1.0% 10.7 1.0% 10.7 1.6% 10.7 1.7% 8.2 19.7% 8.2 21.1% 8.2 26.4% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.0% 6.2 0.2% 6.2 0.5% 6.2 0.9% 6.2 5.1% 7.0 42.6% 7.0 49.2% 7.0 54.8% 7.0 52.4% 7.0 56.4% 7.0 56.4% 7.0 56.4% 7.0 56.4%

11.2 5.0% 11.2 5.0% 11.2 5.0% 11.2 5.0% 11.2 6.0% 11.2 6.0% 8.7 6.9% 8.7 7.9% 8.7 5.9% 6.7 0.1% 6.7 1.2% 6.7 1.2% 6.7 2.0% 6.7 3.0% 6.7 6.5% 6.7 7.7% 6.7 17.0% 8.0 33.5% 8.0 30.8% 8.0 25.8% 8.0 24.3% 8.0 18.3% 8.0 18.3% 8.0 18.3% 8.0 18.3%

11.7 0.6% 11.7 0.6% 11.7 0.6% 11.7 0.6% 11.7 0.7% 11.7 0.9% 9.2 34.2% 9.2 34.1% 9.2 39.3% 7.2 0.2% 7.2 0.3% 7.2 0.3% 7.2 2.5% 7.2 4.3% 7.2 7.9% 7.2 8.5% 7.2 20.6% 9.0 12.9% 9.0 11.6% 9.0 8.2% 9.0 5.4% 9.0 5.1% 9.0 5.1% 9.0 5.1% 9.0 5.1%

12.2 10.6% 12.2 10.6% 12.2 10.6% 12.2 10.6% 12.2 8.3% 12.2 5.8% 9.7 11.0% 9.7 12.8% 9.7 8.9% 7.7 2.3% 7.7 4.0% 7.7 4.0% 7.7 1.3% 7.7 1.3% 7.7 4.8% 7.7 7.2% 7.7 14.0% 10.0 1.8% 10.0 1.5% 10.0 2.0% 10.0 0.3% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0%

12.7 2.0% 12.7 2.0% 12.7 2.0% 12.7 2.0% 12.7 1.8% 12.7 2.0% 10.2 17.5% 10.2 12.6% 10.2 13.0% 8.2 24.8% 8.2 24.4% 8.2 24.4% 8.2 28.3% 8.2 35.9% 8.2 38.8% 8.2 33.6% 8.2 22.1% 11.0 0.9% 11.0 0.0% 11.0 0.0% 11.0 0.0% 11.0 0.0% 11.0 0.0% 11.0 0.0% 11.0 0.0%

13.2 1.3% 13.2 1.3% 13.2 1.3% 13.2 1.3% 13.2 0.7% 13.2 0.5% 10.7 2.5% 10.7 1.3% 10.7 1.6% 8.7 18.9% 8.7 24.6% 8.7 24.6% 8.7 28.0% 8.7 24.5% 8.7 22.6% 8.7 28.1% 8.7 13.2% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0% 11.6 0.0%

13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 13.7 0.0% 11.2 2.8% 11.2 2.6% 11.2 3.6% 9.2 29.2% 9.2 26.4% 9.2 26.4% 9.2 26.6% 9.2 22.7% 9.2 12.7% 9.2 9.6% 9.2 3.8%

14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.1% 14.2 0.0% 11.7 0.2% 11.7 0.2% 11.7 0.8% 9.7 9.4% 9.7 7.7% 9.7 7.7% 9.7 3.2% 9.7 1.4% 9.7 1.7% 9.7 2.0% 9.7 1.3%

14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 14.7 0.0% 12.2 5.1% 12.2 2.3% 12.2 0.1% 10.2 10.7% 10.2 7.6% 10.2 7.6% 10.2 5.0% 10.2 4.6% 10.2 3.1% 10.2 1.4% 10.2 2.3%

15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 15.2 0.1% 10.7 1.8% 10.7 1.5% 10.7 1.5% 10.7 2.0% 10.7 1.4% 10.7 0.8% 10.7 0.5% 10.7 0.0%

11.2 2.5% 11.2 1.9% 11.2 1.9% 11.2 0.3% 11.2 0.1% 11.2 0.1% 11.2 0.3% 11.2 0.3%

11.7 0.1% 11.7 0.3% 11.7 0.3% 11.7 0.5% 11.7 0.4% 11.7 0.4% 11.7 0.1% 11.7 0.1%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

SWEF 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.51 10.39 9.45 9.19 9.20 9.05 8.92 8.92 8.77 8.61 8.36 8.26 7.74 7.60 7.52 7.39 7.18 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08

% Incr. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 9.9% 2.8% -0.1% 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 1.8% 1.8% 3.1% 1.1% 6.7% 1.9% 1.1% 1.7% 2.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

CB Dist. 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.57 10.51 10.39 9.45 9.19 9.20 9.05 8.92 8.92 8.77 8.61 8.36 8.26 7.74 7.60 7.52 7.39 7.18 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08
Allocation Large Season

Group YEARMADE WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER WINTER SUMMER Division State Alloc Grp

1 1,2 7% 93% 97% 3% 88% 12% 1 1

3 thru 6 7% 93% 98% 2% 89% 11% 2 2

7,8 6% 94% 98% 2% 89% 11% 3 3

9 thru 16 6% 94% 98% 2% 87% 13% 4 4

2 1,2 8% 92% 99% 1% 85% 15% 5 0 5

3 thru 6 8% 92% 99% 1% 86% 14% 5 4 6

7,8 5% 95% 99% 1% 83% 17% 6 7

9 thru 16 4% 96% 99% 1% 84% 16% 7 3 8

3 1,2 9% 91% 98% 2% 86% 14% 7 0 9

3 thru 6 9% 91% 99% 1% 89% 11% 8 10

7,8 9% 91% 99% 1% 87% 13% 9 0 11

9 thru 16 10% 90% 99% 1% 84% 16% 9 2 12

4 1,2 15% 85% 98% 2% 73% 27% 

3 thru 6 14% 86% 99% 1% 74% 26% 

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 72% 28% 

9 thru 16 12% 88% 99% 1% 67% 33% 

5 1,2 16% 84% 99% 1% 78% 22% 

3 thru 6 16% 84% 99% 1% 79% 21% 

7,8 12% 88% 99% 1% 73% 27% 

9 thru 16 11% 89% 99% 1% 75% 25% 

6 1,2 46% 54% 100% 0% 50% 50% 

3 thru 6 44% 56% 100% 0% 47% 53% 

7,8 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55% 

9 thru 16 44% 56% 100% 0% 45% 55% 

7 1,2 21% 79% 99% 1% 72% 28% 

3 thru 6 17% 83% 100% 0% 74% 26% 

7,8 17% 83% 100% 0% 62% 38% 

9 thru 16 16% 84% 100% 0% 62% 38% 

8 1,2 18% 82% 100% 0% 56% 44% 

3 thru 6 15% 85% 100% 0% 54% 46% 

7,8 14% 86% 100% 0% 50% 50% 

9 thru 16 13% 87% 100% 0% 52% 48% 

9 1,2 32% 68% 99% 1% 55% 45% 

3 thru 6 29% 71% 99% 1% 52% 48% 

7,8 26% 74% 99% 1% 47% 53% 

9 thru 16 25% 75% 99% 1% 48% 52% 

10 1,2 29% 71% 100% 0% 45% 55% 

3 thru 6 23% 77% 100% 0% 36% 64% 

7,8 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68% 

9 thru 16 20% 80% 100% 0% 32% 68% 

11 1,2 2% 98% 90% 10% 87% 13% 

3 thru 6 2% 98% 91% 9% 89% 11% 

7,8 2% 98% 93% 7% 88% 12% 

9 thru 16 1% 99% 93% 7% 89% 11% 

12 1,2 29% 71% 93% 7% 80% 20% 

3 thru 6 34% 66% 93% 7% 84% 16% 

7,8 42% 58% 92% 8% 81% 19% 

9 thru 16 44% 56% 92% 8% 82% 18% 

Seasonal Allocation Factors

Cooling Only Heating Only Heating & Cooling
NOMINAL First Mortgage Rate Data

NEW ESTIMATE (1998 Survey of Consumer Finances) Mortgage Weight

Nominal interest rate Rate Percent Mortgage Bin

Finance Method Min Max Mean 0.0% 0.3% 0.0 0 to 1

NOMINAL New home 0.0% 20.0% 7.9% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2

NOMINAL 2nd mortgage 0.0% 22.0% 10.3% 2.6% 0.1% 2.6 2 to 3

NOMINAL Credit card 0.0% 39.0% 13.5% 3.0% 0.2% 3.0 3 to 4

4.4% 0.3% 4.4 4 to 5

28% TAX 5.5% 0.9% 5.5 5 to 6

1.56% 1998 INFLATION 6.6% 13.9% 6.6 6 to 7

7.4% 41.3% 7.4 7 to 8

COMPOSITE -- NEW CONSTRUCTION AND REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT 8.3% 25.0% 8.3 8 to 9

Real interest rate 9.3% 8.6% 9.3 9 to 10

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean 10.1% 5.0% 10.1 10 to 11

REAL New home (after tax) 34% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2% 11.1% 1.3% 11.1 11 to 12

REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 2% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 12.1% 1.7% 12.1 12 to 13

REAL Credit card 21% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 13.5% 0.5% 13.5 13 to 14

REAL Transaction accounts 24% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 14.1% 0.3% 14.1 14 to 15

REAL CD (6 month) 4% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 15.0% 0.0% 15.0 15 to 16

REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 5% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 16.0% 0.3% 16.0 16 to 17

REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18

REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 5% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 18.0% 0.1% 18.0 18 to 19

REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 4% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 19.0% 0.0% 19.0 19 to 20

Total Share 100% Wtd Average 5.60% 20.0% 0.1% 20.0 20 to 21

7.94%

NEW CONSTRUCTION ONLY

Real interest rate

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean

REAL New home (after tax) 100% -1.6% 12.8% 4.2%

REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY NOMINAL Credit Card Interest Rate Data

Real interest rate CC Weight

Finance Method Share Min Max Mean Rate Percent CC Bin

REAL 2nd mortgage (after tax) 3% -1.6% 14.3% 5.9% 0.0% 6.6% 0.0 0 to 1

REAL Credit card 32% -1.6% 37.4% 12.0% 1.0% 0.2% 1.0 1 to 2

REAL Transaction accounts 36% 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0 2 to 3

REAL CD (6 month) 6% -2.2% 6.4% 2.4% 3.8% 1.2% 3.8 3 to 4

REAL Savings Bonds (Treasury) 8% -3.3% 5.6% 1.8% 4.9% 3.2% 4.9 4 to 5

REAL Bonds (Corporate AAA) 1% -1.7% 8.8% 4.5% 5.8% 4.4% 5.8 5 to 6

REAL Stocks (Nasdaq) 8% -19.4% 60.2% 13.3% 6.4% 2.2% 6.4 6 to 7

REAL Mutual Funds (S&P 500) 7% -40.0% 37.2% 4.5% 7.6% 1.5% 7.6 7 to 8

Total Share 100% Wtd Average 6.33% 8.4% 1.9% 8.4 8 to 9

9.5% 5.5% 9.5 9 to 10

1 3% 10.3% 1.9% 10.3 10 to 11

2 32% 11.4% 3.3% 11.4 11 to 12

3 36% 12.4% 8.4% 12.4 12 to 13

4 6% 13.3% 5.0% 13.3 13 to 14

5 8% 14.3% 6.1% 14.3 14 to 15

6 1% 15.3% 6.1% 15.3 15 to 16

7 8% 16.3% 4.3% 16.3 16 to 17

8 7% 17.3% 5.1% 17.3 17 to 18

18.1% 13.8% 18.1 18 to 19

Finanace Method Retro 4 19.3% 8.9% 19.3 19 to 20

Real Interest Rate Retro 2.4% 20.1% 1.9% 20.1 20 to 21

21.1% 5.8% 21.1 21 to 22

22.2% 1.6% 22.2 22 to 23

New/Retrofit Group 1 1=New, 2=Retrofit 23.1% 0.5% 23.1 23 to 24

24.3% 0.4% 24.3 24 to 25

25.0% 0.0% 25.0 25 to 26

34% 66% 26.0% 0.0% 26.0 26 to 27

27.0% 0.0% 27.0 27 to 28

28.0% 0.0% 28.0 28 to 29

29.0% 0.0% 29.0 29 to 30

30.0% 0.0% 30.0 30 to 31

31.0% 0.0% 31.0 31 to 32

32.0% 0.0% 32.0 32 to 33

33.0% 0.0% 33.0 33 to 34

34.0% 0.0% 34.0 34 to 35

35.0% 0.0% 35.0 35 to 36

36.0% 0.0% 36.0 36 to 37

37.0% 0.0% 37.0 37 to 38

38.0% 0.0% 38.0 38 to 39

39.0% 0.1% 39.0 39 to 40

13.51%
NOMINAL Second Mortgage Rate Data REAL Gains and Losses for Various Assets

2nd Mort Weight S&P 500 Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. Treasury S&P 500

Rate Percent 2nd Mort Bin Year Mut Fund Stocks Bonds CDs Sav Bonds Mut Fund

0.0% 1.8% 0.0 0 to 1 1999 13% 60% 5% 3% 3% 13%

1.0% 0.0% 1.0 1 to 2 1998 24% 34% 5% 4% 3% 24%

2.5% 1.7% 2.5 2 to 3 1997 21% 12% 5% 3% 3% 21%

3.6% 0.7% 3.6 3 to 4 1996 14% 19% 4% 3% 2% 14%

4.0% 0.0% 4.0 4 to 5 1995 28% 36% 5% 3% 3% 28%

5.0% 0.0% 5.0 5 to 6 1994 -7% -9% 5% 2% 2% -7%

6.5% 3.7% 6.5 6 to 7 1993 3% 9% 4% 0% 0% 3%

7.5% 8.3% 7.5 7 to 8 1992 4% 6% 5% 1% 1% 4%

8.3% 15.8% 8.3 8 to 9 1991 17% 37% 5% 2% 1% 17%

9.2% 16.3% 9.2 9 to 10 1990 -5% -16% 4% 3% 2% -5%

10.2% 15.8% 10.2 10 to 11 1989 14% 9% 4% 4% 3% 14%

11.3% 3.1% 11.3 11 to 12 1988 4% 7% 6% 4% 3% 4%

12.3% 13.3% 12.3 12 to 13 1987 -14% -19% 6% 3% 3% -14%

13.3% 5.2% 13.3 13 to 14 1986 12% 2% 7% 5% 4% 12%

14.1% 7.7% 14.1 14 to 15 1985 14% 13% 8% 5% 4% 14%

15.0% 1.9% 15.0 15 to 16 1984 -2% 8% 6% 6% -2%

16.0% 0.0% 16.0 16 to 17 1983 10% 9% 6% 6% 10%

17.0% 0.0% 17.0 17 to 18 1982 11% 8% 6% 5% 11%

18.0% 2.0% 18.0 18 to 19 1981 -16% 4% 5% 3% -16%

19.0% 1.0% 19.0 19 to 20 1980 5% -2% -1% -3% 5%

20.0% 0.0% 20.0 20 to 21 1979 -3% -2% 0% -2% -3%

21.0% 0.0% 21.0 21 to 22 1978 0% 1% 1% 0% 0%

22.0% 1.6% 22.0 22 to 23 1977 -13% 2% -1% -1% -13%

1976 1% 3% 0% 0% 1%

10.30% 1975 8% -2% -3% 8%

1974 -40% -1% -3% -40%

1973 -22% 3% 1% -22%

1972 10% 2% 2% 10%

1971 2% 1% 0% 2%

1970 3% 2% 1% 3%

1969 -16% 2% 1% -16%

1968 8% 2% 1% 8%

1967 8% 2% 2% 8%

1966 -16% 3% 2% -16%

1965 4% 3% 2% 4%

1964 9% 3% 2% 9%

1963 12% 2% 12%

1962 -9% 2% -9%

1961 15% 2% 15%

1960 3% 2% 3%

1959 7% 4% 7%

1958 30% 30%

1957 -14% -14%

1956 5% 5%

1955 25% 25%

1954 37% 37%

1953 -7% -7%

1952 8% 8%

1951 2% 2%

1950 18% 18%

Average 4% 13% 5% 2% 2%

Minimum -40% -19% -2% -2% -3%

Maximum 37% 60% 9% 6% 6%
Nasdaq Corp AAA CD - 6 mo. Treasury

Stocks Bonds CDs Sav Bonds

1 60%1 5%1 3%1 3%1

1 34%1 5%1 4%1 3%1

1 12%1 5%1 3%1 3%1

1 19%1 4%1 3%1 2%1

1 36%1 5%1 3%1 3%1

1 -9%1 5%1 2%1 2%1

1 9%1 4%1 0%1 0%1

1 6%1 5%1 1%1 1%1

1 37%1 5%1 2%1 1%1

1 -16%1 4%1 3%1 2%1

1 9%1 4%1 4%1 3%1

1 7%1 6%1 4%1 3%1

1 -19%1 6%1 3%1 3%1

1 2%1 7%1 5%1 4%1

1 13%1 8%1 5%1 4%1

1 8%1 6%1 6%1

1 9%1 6%1 6%1

1 8%1 6%1 5%1

1 4%1 5%1 3%1

1 -2%1 -1%1 -3%1

1 -2%1 0%1 -2%1

1 1%1 1%1 0%1

1 2%1 -1%1 -1%1

1 3%1 0%1 0%1

1 -2%1 -3%1

1 -1%1 -3%1

1 3%1 1%1

1 2%1 2%1

1 1%1 0%1

1 2%1 1%1

1 2%1 1%1

1 2%1 1%1

1 2%1 2%1

1 3%1 2%1

1 3%1 2%1

1 3%1 2%1

1 2%1

1 2%1

1 2%1

1 2%1

1 4%1

111111111
Lifetime

SURVIVAL FUNCTION OF CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONERS

Lifetime Distribution 18.4 years Average Life 18.4 years

Fraction Fraction

Age Retired Surv

0 0.000 1.000

1 0.002 0.998

2 0.002 0.996

3 0.002 0.994

4 0.002 0.992

5 0.002 0.990

6 0.002 0.988

7 0.001 0.987

8 0.012 0.976

9 0.019 0.956

10 0.026 0.930

11 0.033 0.897

12 0.039 0.858

13 0.043 0.815

14 0.046 0.769

15 0.049 0.720

16 0.051 0.669

17 0.053 0.616 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25

%

S

urvivin

g

Survival Function of Central A/C

Page 1

17 0.053 0.616

18 0.056 0.560

19 0.060 0.500

20 0.067 0.433

21 0.078 0.355

22 0.093 0.262

23 0.116 0.146

24 0.146 0.000

Source: M.E. Bucher, C.M. Grastataro, W.R. Coleman. 1990. "Heat Pump Life and Compressor Longevity in Diverse Climates." ASHRAE Transactions. AT-90-29-3.

0%

10%

0 5 10 15 20 25

Age (year)

Page 1
Setup

PLEASE DO NOT CHANGE ANYTHING HERE

User Choices AEO 2002 - Reference Case

FPindex 2 Projection Trend

StartYear 2006 Elec Elec Elec

BaseOpt 1 SEER = 10.00 cent/kWh cent/kWh cent/kWh

StdOpt 19 SEER = 13.4 1998 8.53 1.02 1998 8.53

1999 8.30 0.99 2000 8.31

CB 0 2000 8.31 0.99 2010 7.65

2001 8.39 1.00 2020 7.69

Multi-Run Options: 2002 8.00 0.95 2030 7.74

StdOptBegin 2 2003 7.74 0.92 2000-2030

StdOptEnd 19 2004 7.71 0.92 Growth -0.2%

2005 7.64 0.91

Comm./Resid. Choice 2 <-This cell is dynamically defined when 2006 7.62 0.91

user updates the % comm. and % resid. 2007 7.62 0.91

% Shipment Breakdown (Don’t change assumptions here) 2008 7.63 0.91

 Commercial 1 10.0% 2009 7.63 0.91

 Residential 2 90.0% 2010 7.65 0.91

2011 7.67 0.91

2012 7.62 0.91

2013 7.61 0.91

2014 7.58 0.90

2015 7.57 0.90

Page 1

2016 7.61 0.91

2017 7.64 0.91

2018 7.67 0.91

2019 7.68 0.92

2020 7.69 0.92

2021 7.70 0.92

2022 7.70 0.92

2023 7.71 0.92

2024 7.71 0.92

2025 7.72 0.92

2026 7.72 0.92

2027 7.73 0.92

2028 7.73 0.92

2029 7.74 0.92

2030 7.74 0.92

Page 1
PLEASE DO NOT CHANGE ANYTHING HERE

LIST OF FUEL PRICE PROJECTIONS : -

1 Constant 2002

2 AEO 2002 - Reference Case

3 GRI 1998

4 AEO 2002 - High Growth Case

5 AEO 2002 - Low Growth

LIST OF DESIGN OPTIONS : -

0 SEER = 10.00

1 SEER = 10.15

2 SEER = 10.29

3 SEER = 10.41

4 SEER = 10.51

5 SEER = 10.59

6 SEER = 10.65

7 SEER = 10.71

8 SEER = 10.77

9 SEER = 10.82

10 SEER = 10.87

11 SEER = 10.92

12 SEER = 10.97

13 SEER = 11.0

14 SEER = 11.5

15 SEER = 12.0

16 SEER = 12.5

17 SEER = 13.0

18 SEER = 13.4

LIST OF START YEARS :-

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Labels: (Do not touch!)

Cumulative Cost (discounted at 5.6%)