CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

**9.1 INTRODUCTION** 

**.............................................................................................................. 9­1** 

**9.2 MARKET**  **SEGMENTS...................................................................................................... 9­1** 

**9.3 SHIPMENTS**  **ANALYSIS MODEL**  **EQUATIONS**

**.......................................................... 9­3** 

**9.3.1 Mathematical**  **Formulation of**  **the Shipments**  **Model**

**........................................... 9­3** 

**9.3.2 Stock**  **Events......................................................................................................... 9­4** 

**9.4 DATA**  **INPUTS**

**.................................................................................................................. 9­5** 

**9.4.1 Historical**  **Shipments............................................................................................ 9­5**

**9.4.2 Historical**  **Shipped Units...................................................................................... 9­6** 

**9.4.3 Equipment**  **Price................................................................................................... 9­7** 

**9.5 RESULTS** 

**........................................................................................................................... 9­7** 

**REFERENCES**

**............................................................................................................................ 9­9** 

LIST OF TABLES

**Table 9.2.1**  **Market Segments**  **for the**  **U.S. BVM**  **Market in**  **the Years**  **2002­2005**

**.................... 9­1** 

**Table 9.4.1**  **Estimated Historical**  **Shipments (Units**  **Shipped) and**  **Stock (Units)**  **of BVM** 

**Equipment............................................................................................................ 9­6** 

**Table 9.5.1**  **Forecasted Shipments**  **for BVM**  **Equipment (Baseline**  **Efficiency, Level**  **1)**

**for Selected**  **Years (thousands**  **of units**  **shipped).................................................. 9­8** 

LIST OF FIGURES

**Figure 9.1.1**  **Flow Chart**  **Showing Inputs**  **to the**  **Shipments Analysis**  **Model........................... 9­2**

**9­i**CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION

**This chapter**  **describes the**  **U.S. Department**  **of Energy’s**  **(DOE)’s methodology**  **for**

**projecting annual**  **shipments of**  **beverage vending**  **machine (BVM)**  **equipment and**  **presents**

**results of**  **the analysis.**  **BVM equipment**  **shipment estimates**  **are a**  **necessary input**  **to the**  **national**

**energy savings**  **(NES) and**  **net present**  **value (NPV)**  **calculations and**  **the manufacturer**  **impacts**

**analysis (MIA).** 

**According to**  **an analysis**  **of the**  **BVM market,**  **1 there**  **were about**  **3.67 million**  **beverage**

**vending machines**  **in the**  **United States**  **in 2005.**  **According to**  **industry estimates,**  **about 5**  **percent**

**of these**  **units are**  **Class A**  **machines intended**  **for indoor**  **use only,**  **while 95**  **percent of**  **these units** 

**are Class**  **B machines**  **that are**  **intended for**  **either indoor**  **or outdoor**  **use. Annual**  **shipments have** 

**decreased from**  **about 338,000**  **in the**  **year 2000**  **to under**  **100,000 in**  **2006 (DOE**  **estimates that**  **the**

**total of**  **2006 shipments**  **was about**  **67,000 units).**  **The industry**  **estimates that**  **about 10**  **percent of** 

**units shipped**  **were Class**  **A units,**  **while 90**  **percent of**  **units shipped**  **are Class**  **B machines,** 

**intended for**  **either indoor**  **or outdoor**  **use. 2**  **DOE considered**  **the fact**  **that there**  **may be**  **Class A** 

**machines intended**  **for either**  **indoor or**  **outdoor use**  **as well**  **as some**  **Class B**  **machines that**  **are**

**intended for**  **indoor use**  **only; however,**  **DOE was**  **not able**  **to locate**  **any sales**  **data for**  **these two** 

**equipment application**  **scenarios, so**  **their sales**  **are assumed**  **to be**  **zero. So,**  **although some**  **Class**

**A machines**  **may be**  **used outdoors,**  **for the**  **purposes of**  **the ANOPR**  **analysis, DOE**  **assumes that** 

**all Class**  **A machines**  **are used**  **indoors. Industry**  **sources estimate**  **that about**  **75 percent**  **of Class** 

**B units**  **are used**  **indoors and**  **25 percent**  **are used**  **in outdoor**  **locations.**

9.2 MARKET SEGMENTS

**BVMs come**  **in a**  **number of**  **different sizes.**  **DOE was**  **not able**  **to locate**  **any market**  **data**

**concerning shipments**  **by size**  **(unit vending**  **capacity); therefore,**  **the shipments**  **analysis focused** 

**on three**  **sizes believed**  **to be**  **typical, each**  **of which**  **is assumed**  **to be**  **about one­third**  **of the** 

**market for**  **Class A**  **units: large**  **(410 12­oz.**  **cans), medium**  **(350 cans)**  **and small**  **(270 cans),**  **and**

**for Class**  **B units:**  **large (800**  **cans), medium**  **(650 cans),**  **and small**  **(450 cans).**  **BVMs are**  **owned**

**by a**  **number of**  **different business**  **types and**  **are used**  **in many**  **different kinds**  **of business** 

**locations BVM**  **units are**  **divided into**  **several market**  **segments. Table**  **9.2.1 gives**  **the business** 

**locations as**  **well as**  **the approximate**  **size of**  **market segments**  **of the**  **BVMs for**  **the years**  **2002­**

**2005.**

Table 9.2.1 Market Segments for the U.S. BVM Market in the Years 2002­2005

**Business Location**  **Percent of**  **Units Ownership**  **Percent of**  **Units**

**Manufacturing 30.4%**  **Bottlers and**  **Vendors 75.0%** 

**Offices 23.1%**  **Business­Owned 25.0%** 

**Retail 13.6%**  **Manufacturing 7.6%** 

**Schools/Colleges 13.0%**  **Offices and** 

**Health Care**  **7.3%**

**Health Care**  **6.1% Retail/Restaurants/** 

**Bars/Clubs 4.1%** 

**Hotels/Motels 3.0%**  **Schools, Colleges,**  **3.8%**

**9­1 and**  **Public**

**Facilities**

**(including**

**correctional)**

**Restaurants/Bars/**

**Clubs 2.6%**  **Military Bases** 

**0.5%**

**Correctional**

**Facilities 2.3%**  **Other (including** 

**hotels/motels) 1.8%** 

**Military Bases**  **1.9% Subtotal,**  **Site**

**Owned 25.0%** 

**Other 4.0%**  **Total 100.0%** 

**Total 100.0%** 

**Source: State**  **of the**  **Vending Industry**  **(2006) 1** 

**Sales of**  **BVM equipment**  **have been**  **decreasing at**  **the rate**  **of about**  **24 percent**  **per year** 

**from 2000**  **to 2005.**  **DOE assumed**  **that all**  **shipments after**  **the year**  **2000 (about**  **630,000 units)** 

**were for**  **replacement only.**  **Even so,**  **the stock**  **of BVM**  **units was**  **estimated to**  **have fallen**  **from**

**about 4.2**  **million units**  **in the**  **year 2000**  **to about**  **3.67 million**  **units in**  **2005. Market**  **shrinkage is** 

**now believed**  **to have**  **stopped and**  **DOE assumes**  **that future**  **sales of**  **new units**  **will increase** 

**roughly in**  **proportion to**  **population growth**  **(about 2**  **percent per**  **year). Future**  **replacement sales** 

**of standard**  **units is**  **limited by**  **the total**  **existing number**  **installed and**  **their age**  **distribution.**

**The shipments**  **analysis results**  **are driven**  **primarily by**  **historical shipments**  **data for**  **the**

**four equipment**  **classes BVM**  **equipment. The**  **flow chart**  **presented in**  **Figure 9.2.1**  **outlines the** 

**structure of**  **the shipments**  **analysis model.** 

Population Forecast

Industry Estimate of

Shipments (2002­2005)

Initial Replacement

Shipments Initial Shipments to New

Locations

Initial BVM Stock

Estimated Lifetime

of BVM Stock Shipments to New

Locations

Replacement

Shipments Total

Shipments By

Equipment

Class and Size % Shipments by

Equipment Class (2002­

2005)

BVM Stock

by Population Forecast

Industry Estimate of

Shipments (2002­2005)

Initial Replacement

Shipments Initial Shipments to New

Locations

Initial BVM Stock

Estimated Lifetime

of BVM Stock Shipments to New

Locations

Replacement

Shipments Total

Shipments By

Equipment

Class and Size % Shipments by

Equipment Class (2002­

2005)

BVM Stock

by

E q u i p m e n t

C l a s s a n d

S i z e

Figure 9.2.1 Flow Chart Showing Inputs to the Shipments Analysis Model

**9­2 The**  **analysis model**  **assumes that,**  **in each**  **year, the**  **existing BVM**  **equipment stock**  **either**

**ages by**  **one year**  **or breaks.**  **Broken equipment**  **is replaced.**  **In addition,**  **new equipment**  **can be** 

**shipped into**  **new commercial**  **floor space,**  **and old**  **equipment can**  **be removed**  **(not shown**  **in the** 

**diagram).**

**The balance**  **of this**  **chapter explains**  **the shipments**  **analysis in**  **more detail.**  **Section 9.3** 

**presents the**  **mathematical formulation**  **of the**  **model, section**  **9.4 describes**  **the data**  **inputs to**  **the**

**model, and**  **section 9.5**  **presents the**  **results for**  **different efficiency**  **level scenarios.** 

**Shipments forecasts**  **were determined**  **for all**  **of the**  **candidate standard**  **levels for**  **which**

**NES and**  **NPV are**  **required. DOE**  **is considering**  **up to**  **eight candidate**  **standard levels**  **for each**  **of**

**the four**  **equipment classes**  **and three**  **sizes.**

9.3 SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS MODEL EQUATIONS

**The shipments**  **analysis model**  **is a**  **description of**  **BVM equipment**  **stock flows**  **as a** 

**function of**  **year and**  **age. While**  **there are**  **two equipment**  **classes, no**  **coupling is**  **assumed**

**between them,**  **so the**  **equations describe**  **each type**  **of equipment**  **independently. The**  **shipments**

**analysis is**  **conducted using**  **a Microsoft**  **Excel spreadsheet**  **(NES spreadsheet)**  **that is**  **accessible**

**on the**  **Internet. Chapter**  **10 of**  **this TSD**  **discusses how**  **to access**  **the spreadsheet**  **and other** 

**related spreadsheets**  **and provides**  **basic instructions**  **for using**  **them.**

**Section 9.3.1**  **defines the**  **different BVM**  **equipment stock**  **categories. DOE**  **formulated**

**the equations**  **as updates**  **of the**  **distribution of**  **stock in**  **year** t **as a**  **function of**  **age** a **to year**  t+1

**. Then**  **DOE presented**  **the different**  **purchase decisions**  **and, in**  **section 9.3.2,**  **provided a** 

**description of**  **the data**  **sources. DOE**  **used this**  **calculation of**  **existing stock,**  **and the**  **average age** 

**of the**  **equipment, as**  **a basis**  **for calculating**  **replacement sales**  **in section**  **9.3.2.1. Then,**  **in section** 

**9.3.2.2 DOE**  **subtracted replacement**  **sales from**  **historical total**  **sales statistics**  **to calculate**  **the**

**new sales**  **of new**  **BVM equipment.**  **DOE forecasted**  **new sales**  **as a**  **function of**  **population,**

**which is**  **assumed to**  **result in**  **new business**  **locations for**  **BVMs. Sales**  **of new**  **and replacement** 

**equipment are**  **recorded by**  **the year**  **sold, and**  **each annual**  **vintage is**  **depreciated over**  **the**

**estimated life**  **of the**  **equipment (approximately**  **14 years).**  **Sales in**  **each year**  **are allocated**  **to the** 

**two equipment**  **classes in**  **proportion to**  **their relative**  **historical sales.** 

9.3.1 Mathematical Formulation of the Shipments Model

**DOE uses**  **two BVM**  **equipment stock**  **categories. The**  **category** U **0** (t,a) **is the**  **stock of** 

**existing units.**  **Available information**  **suggests that**  **all units**  **have had**  **normal repairs**  **that do**  **not**

**affect the**  **lifetime of**  **the equipment.** 

**Beverage vending**  **machine equipment**  **lifetimes range**  **from one**  **year to**  **as many**  **as**

**20 years,**  **but based**  **on discussions**  **with industry,**  **the typical**  **value is**  **14 years,**  **based on** 

**discussions with**  **industry contacts**  **and that**  **the industry**  **practice that**  **BVM equipment**  **is**

**withdrawn from**  **service and**  **renovated at**  **3­5 year**  **intervals, with**  **two renovation**  **cycles. Most** 

**equipment is**  **not renovated**  **a third**  **time (see**  **chapter 8**  **for further**  **details). Also,**  **data obtained** 

**from multiple**  **industry and**  **government sources**  **suggests that**  **the initial**  **existing stock**  **of**

**equipment is**  **assumed to**  **have an**  **initial replacement**  **rate of**  **about 5**  **percent per**  **year, based**  **on**

**9­3 the**  **14­year lifetime**  **of a**  **unit of**  **equipment, and**  **the historical**  **annual replacements**  **for the**  **past**

**10 years.**  **The total**  **stock of**  **age** a **in a**  **given year**  y **is represented**  **by**

U **(t,a)**

**=** U 0 **(t,a)** Eq. 9.1

**and the**  **average age**  **of the**  **stock in**  **year** y **is defined**  **as**

StockAge **(y)**

**= ∑** 

**a** U **(t, a)**  **x a**  **/ ∑(**  U **( t,a))**  Eq. 9.2

**where:**

U **(** t,a **)**

**= total**  **stock of**  **age** a **in a**  **given year**  t

U

**0 (**  t,a **)**

**= stock**  **of existing**  **units**

StockAge **(y)**

**= average**  **age of**  **stock in**  **year** y

a **= age**  **of stock**  **in years** 

t **= year.** 

**The shipments**  **of new**  **stock in**  **a given**  **year are**  Uship(t)

**. By**  **definition, the**  **age of**  **the**

**equipment is**  **zero in**  **the year**  **that it**  **is shipped,**  **so that**  Uship(t)

= U(t,0)

**.**

9.3.2 Stock Events

**In the**  **transition from**  **year** t **to year**  t+1

**, two**  **things could**  **happen to**  **the stock**  **of beverage** 

**vending machines:** 

• **existing equipment**  **could break**  **or be**  **removed and**  **be replaced,**  **or**

• **the stock**  **could simply**  **age by**  **one year.** 

**In the**  **model, early**  **replacements (i.e.,**  **existing equipment**  **that is**  **replaced before**  **the end** 

**of its**  **useful life)**  **are not**  **considered, and**  **all broken**  **equipment are**  **replaced. The**  **following**

**sections present**  **the equations**  **used to**  **represent each**  **possible event.** 

9.3.2.1 Replacing Equipment

**DOE determined**  **the probability**  **that BVM**  **equipment of**  **age** a **from stock**  U **0 will**  **break**

**or will**  **be replaced**  **before the**  **end of**  **their useful**  **lifetime using**  **a known**  **function** PB **0** (a) **(based**

**on the**  **average age**  **of BVM**  **equipment** a **and Weibull**  **statistical distribution).**  **Similarly, the** 

**probability that**  **equipment of**  **age** a **from stock**  U 1 **will break**  **is given**  **by a**  **known function** 

PB **1** (a)

**. These**  **probabilities do**  **not depend**  **on the**  **model year**  t

**. DOE**  **defines the**  **quantities of** 

**replaced existing**  **equipment as** 

UB(t, a)

= PB 0 (a) x UB 0 (t,a) Eq. 9.3

**where:**

UB (t,a)

**= stock**  **of existing**  **units**

PB 0 (a)

**= probability**  **that stock**  **of existing**  **units will**  **break, or**  **will be**  **replaced**

UB 0 (t,a)

**= stock**  **of existing**  **units in**  **year 0** 

**9­4**a **= age**  **of stock**  **in years** 

t **= year.** 

**All broken**  **units are**  **assumed to**  **be replaced.** 

9.3.2.2 New Equipment

**As shown**  **in Table**  **9.2.1, new**  **BVM equipment**  **will be**  **purchased to**  **replace BVM** 

**equipment as**  **described above**  **and to**  **serve increased**  **numbers of**  **customers at**  **existing as**  **well as** 

**new geographical**  **locations which**  **results in**  **new unit**  **locations. Available**  **information suggests** 

**that the**  **purchase of**  **new BVM**  **equipment serving**  **new customers**  **in new**  **locations is**  **driven by** 

**the rate**  **of population**  **growth.**

**By definition:** 

E(t)

= E(t­1) + NE(t)

– RE(t) Eq. 9.4

**where:**

E(t­1)

**= the**  **unit locations**  **in year**  t­1

NE(t)

**= the**  **new unit**  **locations in**  **the year**  t **(described in**  **section 9.4.2)** 

RE(t)

**= the**  **unit locations**  **removed in**  **year** t **(described in**  **section 9.4.2).** 

**The number**  **of BVM**  **units going**  **into new**  **buildings is** 

UN **(t)**

**=** UN **(t­1) x**  A 0 **x (1+(E(t)/**  **E(t­1))** Eq. 9.5

**where:**

UN(t)

**= the**  **number of**  **units going**  **into new**  **locations in**  **year t** 

**A 0**  **= an**  **overall scale**  **factor which**  **accounts for**  **the number**  **of units**  **covered by**  **the**

**standard which**  **are not**  **used in**  **all commercial**  **building types.**  **The default**  **value**

**for** A **0 is**  **1.0, and**  **values of**  **0.5 and**  **1.5 are**  **used for**  **sensitivity testing.** 

**DOE has**  **no information**  **on the**  **variation in**  **the market**  **saturation of**  **BVM equipment**  **by**

**building type**  **or over**  **time. Therefore,**  **in the**  **model, the**  **purchase of**  **new equipment**  **is driven**  **by**

**growth in**  **customer population**  **(assumed to**  **be about**  **2 percent**  **per year),**  **the new**  **units are** 

**allocated to**  **building type**  **according to**  **historical percentage**  **shares, and**  **broken or**  **removed**

**equipment is**  **replaced on**  **a one­for­one**  **basis.**

9.4 DATA INPUTS

9.4.1 Historical Shipments

**Historical shipments**  **are critical**  **to the**  **development of**  **the shipments**  **model, since**  **DOE**

**used the**  **historical data**  **to calibrate**  **the model.**  **DOE’s primary**  **source of**  **historical data**  **for**

**shipments of**  **refrigeration equipment**  **was data**  **in an**  **e­mail from**  **NAMA, and**  **the** State of the

Vending Machine Industry **(2006). NAMA**  **provided DOE**  **with shipments**  **data (from**  **1998 to** 

**2006, there**  **has been**  **a reduction**  **in shipments**  **of 86.4%;**  **also that**  **Class A**  **machines now** 

**9­5 approach**  **10% of**  **shipments and**  **the trend**  **is to**  **increase this**  **number as**  **the number**  **of beverages** 

**offered in**  **containers of**  **all shapes,**  **sizes and**  **material increases.)**  **that allowed**  **DOE to**  **allocate**

**sales of**  **equipment to**  **refurbished and**  **new units**  **and among**  **the two**  **equipment classes.**  **2**

9.4.2 Historical Shipped Units

**Historical shipped**  **units depict**  **the annual**  **amount of**  **BVM equipment**  **capacity**

**introduced into**  **the marketplace.**  **DOE converted**  **shipped units**  **to percent**  **of shipped**  **units for** 

**use in**  **the shipments**  **analysis model,**  **to establish**  **the beverage**  **vending machine**  **market share** 

**attributed to**  **each equipment**  **class. The**  **market share**  **calculation and**  **its use**  **in forecasting** 

**shipments are**  **explained in**  **section 9.3.2.2.**  **Table 9.4.1**  **presents the**  **historical shipments**  **of BVM** 

**equipment by**  **capacity ranges**  **and the**  **year of**  **shipment. The**  **shipments analysis**  **relies on**  **the**

**three sizes**  **each of**  **the two**  **equipment classes**  **to represent**  **the BVM**  **equipment market.** 

Table 9.4.1 Estimated Historical Shipments (Units Shipped) and Stock (Units) of BVM

Equipment

**1998 1999**  **2000 2001**  **2002 2003**  **2004 2005**  **2006**

**Estimated**

**Shipments 372,000**  **477,000 338,000**  **150,000 150,000**  **100,000 90,000**  **73,000 67,300** 

**Assumed**

**Replacements 150,000**  **166,000 150,000**  **150,000 150,000**  **100,000 90,000**  **73,000 67,300** 

**New**

**Shipments 222,000**  **311,000 188,000** 

**­ ­**  **­ ­**  **­ ­** 

**Estimated**

**Stock 3,765,000**  **4,076,000 4,264,000**  **4,200,800 4,140,760**  **4,033,722 3,922,036**  **3,798,934 3,676,287** 

**Table notes:**  **Allocation of**  **units to**  **refurbished and**  **new units**  **is based**  **on industry**  **estimates of**  **total stock** 

**Source: State**  **of the**  **Vending Industry**  **(2006) and**  **DOE assumptions** 

**The total**  **of new**  **beverage vending**  **machines is**  **the estimated**  **total shipments**  **in units**  **for**

**2005, multiplied**  **by an**  **index of**  **new unit**  **locations for**  **each future**  **year. The**  **average annual**  **rate**

**of change**  **in the**  **new unit**  **locations between**  **2020 and**  **2030 (2.0**  **percent) is**  **projected forward** 

**after 2030**  **until 2042,**  **the last**  **year in**  **which BVM**  **units are**  **added.**

**.**

9.4.2.1 Market Shipments

**DOE used**  **the above**  **shipments data**  **to estimate**  **the market**  **shipments in**  **year t**  **of each** 

**BVM equipment**  **class y**  **(** MKTSHIP(t,y)) **defined in**  **terms of**  **units shipped**  **for both**  **new and** 

**replacement markets.**  **Because the**  **percent of**  **shipments in**  **each equipment**  **class is**  **relatively**

**constant over**  **time and**  **the lifetime**  **of each**  **equipment class**  **is the**  **same (14**  **years), the**  **ratio of** 

**shipments to**  **equipment class**  **is indicative**  **of the**  **market share**  **for that**  **class (**  MKT(y))

**. DOE** 

**estimated the**  MKT(y) **for a**  **particular equipment**  **class to**  **be a**  **constant value**  **equal to**  **the average** 

**of the**  **yearly percent**  **historical shipments**  **for that**  **equipment class.**  **These percentages**  **are 10** 

**percent for**  **Class A**  **machines and**  **90 percent**  **for Class**  **B machines**  **for the**  **year 2005.**  **Each**

**equipment class**  **was further**  **divided into**  **large, medium,**  **and small**  **sizes, each**  **with a**  **third of**  **the**

**market for**  **the particular**  **equipment class.** 

**9­6**MKTSHIP(t,y)

= MKT(y) x (UN(t) + UB(t)) Eq. 9.6

**Where:**

MKTSHIP(t,y)

**= total**  **market shipments**  **of equipment**  **class** y **in year**  t

MKT(y)

**= percentage**  **of total**  **market shipments**  **of equipment**  **class** y UN(t)

**= total**  **shipments to**  **new locations**  **in year**  t

UB(t)

**= total**  **replacement shipments**  **in year**  t

**DOE estimated**  **total sales**  **by adding**  **replacement sales**  **to new**  **sales in**  **each year.**  **DOE**

**estimated the**  **total number**  **of units**  **for each**  **type that**  **were replacement**  **units. DOE**  **assumed that** 

**new units**  **last an**  **average of**  **14 years,**  **that their**  **lifetimes follow**  **a Weibull**  **distribution**

**(commonly assumed**  **for equipment**  **failure studies).**  **The initial**  **size of**  **the existing**  **stock was** 

**back­calculated. DOE**  **set up**  **an inventory**  **accounting scheme**  **to keep**  **track of**  **required**

**replacements and**  **the aging**  **of new**  **units as**  **they are**  **added to**  **the inventory**  **each year.** 

9.4.3 Equipment Price

**Equipment price**  **is the**  **price paid**  **by the**  **customer for**  **beverage vending**  **machines. It** 

**includes both**  **the purchase**  **price of**  **the equipment**  **and installation**  **costs. As**  **discussed in**  **the**

**engineering analysis**  **(chapter 5)**  **and the**  **life­cycle cost**  **and payback**  **period analysis**  **(chapter 8),** 

**equipment prices**  **in this**  **analysis are**  **a function**  **of efficiency**  **(or reduced**  **energy consumption).** 

**DOE based**  **equipment price**  **projections on**  **potential equipment**  **efficiency options,**  **but did**  **not**

**develop estimates**  **of market**  **trends in**  **efficiency. DOE**  **developed an**  **efficiency mix**  **for the**  **base**

**case (i.e.,**  **the case**  **without new**  **efficiency standards)**  **and for**  **each standard**  **efficiency level.**  **The**

**standard efficiency**  **levels are**  **discussed in**  **detail in**  **chapter 10.** 

9.5 RESULTS

**Table 9.5.1**  **shows the**  **forecasted shipments**  **for BVM**  **equipment classes**  **for the**  **baseline**

**efficiency level**  **(Level 1)**  **for selected**  **years from**  **2012 to**  **2042. As**  **equipment purchase**  **price**

**increases with**  **efficiency, a**  **drop in**  **shipments would**  **be expected.**  **Although there**  **is a**  **provision**

**in the**  **shipments analysis**  **spreadsheet for**  **a change**  **in shipments**  **as the**  **efficiency level**  **increases,**

**DOE had**  **no information**  **with which**  **to calibrate**  **such a**  **relationship. Therefore,**  **for the**  **ANOPR**

**analysis, DOE**  **presumed that**  **shipments do**  **not change**  **with efficiency**  **level.**

**Table 9.5.1**  **also shows**  **the cumulative**  **shipments for**  **BVM equipment**  **for the**  **entire 31­** 

**year period**  **from 2012**  **to 2042.** 

**9­7**Table 9.5.1 Forecasted Shipments for BVM Equipment (Baseline Efficiency, Level 1) for

Selected Years (thousands of units shipped)

Equipment Class Thousands of Units Shipped

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042 Cumulative

Shipments

(2012­2042)

A­L­IN

**7.7 7.6**  **7.9 8.3**  **8.8 9.2**  **9.7 9.9**  **265.9**

A­M­IN

**7.7 7.6**  **7.9 8.3**  **8.8 9.2**  **9.7 9.9**  **265.9**

A­S­IN

**7.7 7.6**  **7.9 8.3**  **8.8 9.2**  **9.7 9.9**  **265.9**

B­L­IO

**77.6 77.0**  **79.8 84.2**  **88.8 93.4**  **98.4 100.5**  **2,688.3**

B­M­IO

**77.6 77.0**  **79.8 84.2**  **88.8 93.4**  **98.4 100.5**  **2,688.3**

B­S­IO

**77.6 77.0**  **79.8 84.2**  **88.8 93.4**  **98.4 100.5**  **2,688.3**

**9­8**REFERENCES

**1 Automatic**  **Merchandiser. 2006.**  State of the Vending Industry Report

**. www.amonline.com** 

**, August**  **2006.**

**2 Eils,**  **Larry (NAMA).**  **2007. e­mail**  **message saying**  **that shipments**  **have reduced**  **by 86.4%**  **from**

**1998 to**  **2006; and**  **also that**  **glass fronts**  **now approach**  **10% of**  **shipments and**  **the trend**  **is to** 

**increase this**  **number, dated**  **May 24,**  **2007.**

**9­9**