National Endowment for the Arts


Reading At Risk:


A Survey of Literary Reading in America


Research Division Report #46 
Research Division Report #46 

June 2004 

National Endowment for the Arts 

1100 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 

Washington, DC 20506-0001 

Telephone: 202-682-5400 

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Research Division, National Endowment for the Arts 

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National Endowment for the Arts. 
TableofContents


Preface ....................................................................................................................................Page vii


Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................Page ix


1. Introduction..........................................................................................................................Page 1


2. Literature Participation in 2002 ........................................................................................Page 3


3. Factors in Literary Reading ..............................................................................................Page 9


4. Trends in Literature Participation, 1982 – 2002 ..........................................................Page 21


5. Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................Page 29


Appendices..............................................................................................................................Page 33


List of Tables 

Table 1. U.S. Adult Participation in Literary Activities 


in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002 ............................................................Page 4


Table 2. U.S. Adult Participation in Cultural, Sports, and Leisure Activities 


in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002 ............................................................Page 5


Table 3. Performing Arts Attendance by U.S. Adults, 2002 ............................................Page 6


Table 4. Art Museum Attendance by U.S. Adults, 2002 ..................................................Page 6


Table 5. Volunteer and Charity Work by U.S. Adults, 2002............................................Page 6


Table 6. Sporting Events Attendance by U.S. Adults, 2002..............................................Page 7


Table 7. U.S. Adults Playing Leisure Sports, 2002 ............................................................Page 7


Table 8. Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Adults Reading Literature 


in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002 ............................................................Page 9


Table 9. Literary Reading by Race and Ethnicity, U.S. Adults, 


in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002 ..........................................................Page 11


National Endowment for the Arts iii Reading at Risk 
Table 10. Literary Reading by Region, U.S. Adults, 2002 ..............................................Page 14 

Table 11. Literary Reading by Occupation Group, U.S. Adults, 2002 ........................Page 14


Table 12. Literary Reading by Parents' Education Levels, U.S. Adults, 2002 ............Page 14


Table 13. Average Number of Hours Per Day Watching TV, U.S. Adults, 2002......Page 15


Table 14. Demographic Characterizes of U.S. Adults That Read Novels or 


Short Stories, Poetry, or Plays in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002. ....Page 17


Table 15. Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Adults Listening to 


Live or Recorded Readings of Novels or Poetry, 2002 ............................................Page 18


Table 16. Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Adults 


Doing Creative Writing, 2002 ......................................................................................Page 19


Table 17. Literary Reading, U.S. Adults, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ....................................Page 21


Table 18. Reading or Listening to Poetry, U.S. Adults, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ............Page 22


Table 19. Creative Writing, U.S. Adults, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ....................................Page 22


Table 20. Creative Writing Classes or Lessons, U.S. Adults, 1982, 1992, and 2002....Page 22


Table 21. Literary Reading by Gender, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ........................................Page 23


Table 22. Literary Reading by Ethnicity and Race, 1982, 1992, and 2002....................Page 24


Table 23. Literary Reading by Education, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ..................................Page 25


Table 24. Literary Reading by Age, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ..............................................Page 27


Table 25. Literary Reading by Age Cohort, 1982 and 2002............................................Page 27


Appendix Table 1. Summary of Multiple Logistic Regression Predicting 


Whether Adults have Read Literature ......................................................................Page 42


Appendix Table 2. Summary of Multiple Logistic Regression Predicting 


Whether Adults have Read 12 or More Books ......................................................Page 44


Appendix Table 3. Correlation Analysis of Predictor Variables in the Literature 


Reading and Frequent/Avid Book Reading, Logistic Regression Models ..........Page 46


National Endowment for the Arts iv Reading at Risk 
List of Figures 

Figure 1. Participation in Literary Activities, 2002 ............................................................Page 3


Figure 2. Literary Reading Rates by Age, 2002 ................................................................Page 10


Figure 3. Literary Reading Rates by Education, 2002 ....................................................Page 12


Figure 4. Literary Reading Rates by Region, 2002 ..........................................................Page 13


Figure 5. Literary Reading Rates by Gender, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ..............................Page 23


Figure 6. Literary Reading Rates by Ethnicity and Race, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ........Page 24


Figure 7. Literary Reading Rates by Education, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ........................Page 25


Figure 8. Literary Reading Rates by Age, 1982, 1992, and 2002 ....................................Page 26


National Endowment for the Arts v Reading at Risk 

Preface


R eading at Risk is not a report that the National 

Endowment for the Arts is happy to issue. This 

comprehensive survey of American literary 

reading presents a detailed but bleak assessment of the 

decline of reading’s role in the nation’s culture. For the 

first time in modern history, less than half of the adult 

population now reads literature, and these trends reflect a 

larger decline in other sorts of reading. Anyone who loves 

literature or values the cultural, intellectual, and political 

importance of active and engaged literacy in American 

society will respond to this report with grave concern. 

Reading at Risk is not a collection of anecdotes, 

theories, or opinions. It is a descriptive survey of national 

trends in adult literary reading. Based on an enormous 

sample size of more than 17,000 adults, it covers most 

major demographic groups – providing statistical 

measurements by age, gender, education, income, region, 

race, and ethnicity. Conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the 

Census and spanning 20 years of polling, the Survey of 

Public Participation in the Arts, the data source for 

Reading at Risk, is as reliable and objective as any such 

survey can be. While not every measurement of reading 

was built into the study, the report provides so much data 

in such detail that it constitutes a comprehensive factual 

basis for any informed discussion of current American 

reading habits. 

The key results of the survey are condensed in the 

“Executive Summary,” which follows, but the report can 

be further summarized in a single sentence: literary 

reading in America is not only declining rapidly among 

all groups, but the rate of decline has accelerated, 

especially among the young. The concerned citizen in 

search of good news about American literary culture will 

study the pages of this report in vain. 

Although the news in the report is dire, I doubt that 

any careful observer of contemporary American society 

will be greatly surprised – except perhaps by the sheer 

magnitude of decline. Reading at Risk merely documents 

and quantifies a huge cultural transformation that most 

Americans have already noted – our society’s massive 

shift toward electronic media for entertainment and 

information. 

Reading a book requires a degree of active attention 

and engagement. Indeed, reading itself is a progressive 

skill that depends on years of education and practice. By 

contrast, most electronic media such as television, 

recordings, and radio make fewer demands on their 

audiences, and indeed often require no more than passive 

participation. Even interactive electronic media, such as 

video games and the Internet, foster shorter attention 

spans and accelerated gratification. 

While oral culture has 

a rich immediacy that is 

not to be dismissed, and 

electronic media offer the 

considerable advantages of 

diversity and access, print 

culture affords 

irreplaceable forms of 

focused attention and 

contemplation that make 

complex communications 

and insights possible. To 

lose such intellectual 

capability – and the many sorts of human continuity it 

allows – would constitute a vast cultural impoverishment. 

More than reading is at stake. As this report 

unambiguously demonstrates, readers play a more active 

and involved role in their communities. The decline in 

reading, therefore, parallels a larger retreat from 

participation in civic and cultural life. The long-term 

implications of this study not only affect literature but all 

the arts – as well as social activities such as volunteerism, 

philanthropy, and even political engagement. 

What is to be done? There is surely no single 

solution to the present dilemma, just as there is no single 

cause. Each concerned group – writers, teachers, 

publishers, journalists, librarians, and legislators – will 

legitimately view the situation from a different 

perspective, and each will offer its own 

recommendations. The important thing now is to 

understand that America can no longer take active and 

engaged literacy for granted. 

Reading is not a timeless, universal capability. 

Advanced literacy is a specific intellectual skill and social 

habit that depends on a great many educational, cultural, 

and economic factors. As more Americans lose this 

capability, our nation becomes less informed, active, and 

independent-minded. These are not qualities that a free, 

innovative, or productive society can afford to lose. 

Dana Gioia 

Chairman, National Endowment for the Arts 

Photo by Vance Jacobs 

National Endowment for the Arts vii Reading at Risk 

ExecutiveSummary


R eading at Risk presents the results from the 

literature segment of a large-scale survey, the 

Survey of Public Participation in the Arts, 

conducted by the Census Bureau in 2002 at the request 

of the National Endowment for the Arts. This survey 

investigated the percentage and number of adults, age 

18 and over, who attended artistic performances, 

visited museums, watched broadcasts of arts 

programs, or read literature. The survey sample 

numbered more than 17,000 individuals, which makes 

it one of the most comprehensive polls of art and 

literature consumption ever conducted. 

Reading at Risk extrapolates and interprets data on 

literary reading and compares them with results from 

similar surveys carried out in 1982 and 1992. The 

survey asked respondents if, during the previous 

twelve months, they had read any novels, short stories, 

plays, or poetry in their leisure time (not for work or 

school). The report establishes trends in the number 

of adults reading, listening to, and writing literature 

by demographic categories of age, race, region, 

income, and education. This report also compares 

participation in literary activities with other leisure 

activities, such as watching movies and exercising. 

Reading at Risk provides an invaluable snapshot of 

the role of literature in the lives of Americans. It 

comes at a critical time, when electronic media are 

becoming the dominant influence in young people’s 

worlds. Reading at Risk adds new and distressing 

information to the discussion. It contains solid 

evidence of the declining importance of literature to 

our populace. Literature reading is fading as a 

meaningful activity, especially among younger people. 

If one believes that active and engaged readers lead 

richer intellectual lives than non-readers and that a 

well-read citizenry is essential to a vibrant democracy, 

the decline of literary reading calls for serious action. 

10 Key Findings 

1. The percentage of adult Americans reading 

literature has dropped dramatically over the past 20 

years. 

Decline in Literary Reading 

% of U.S. Adult Population Reading Literature 

Number of Literary Readers (in millions) 

1982 

56.9 

96 

1992 

54.0 

100 

2002 

46.7 

96 

■	 Less than half of the adult American population 

now reads literature. 

■	 The 10 percentage point decline in literary reading 

represents a loss of 20 million potential readers. 

■	 Only the strong growth in overall U.S. population 

of nearly 40 million adults from 1982 to 2002 

allowed the actual number of readers to remain 

flat at 96 million. 

2. The decline in literary reading parallels a decline 

in total book reading. 

Trends in Book and Literary Reading 

Read Any Book 

Read Literature 

1992 

60.9 

54.0 

Percentage of U.S. Adult Population Change, 1992 to 2002 

Percentage Point 

2002 

56.6 

46.7 

Difference 

-4.3 pp 

-7.3 pp 

Rate of Decline 

-7% 

-14% 

(pp) 

■


■


Total book reading is declining significantly, 

although not at the rate of literary reading. 

The percentage of the U.S. adult population 

reading any books has declined by -7 percent over 

the past decade. 

National Endowment for the Arts ix Reading at Risk 
3. The rate of decline in literary reading is accelerating. 

■	 The ten-year rate of decline has 

accelerated from -5 percent to -14 

percent since 1992. 

4. Women read more literature than men do, but literary reading by both groups is declining at significant rates. 

Literary Reading by Gender 

Men 

Women 

1982 

49.1 

63.0 

Percentage by Group Percentage Point (pp) Change 

1992 

47.4 

60.3 

2002 

37.6 

55.1 

1992-2002 

-9.8 pp 

-5.2 pp 

1982-2002 

-11.5 pp 

-7.9 pp 

■	 Only slightly more than one-third 

of adult American males now read 

literature. 

■ Reading among women is also 

Rates of Decline in Literary Reading 

% of U.S. Adult Population 

Percentage Point 

Rate of Decline 

1982 

56.9 

– 

– 

1992 

54.0 

-2.9 pp 

-5% 

2002 

46.7 

-7.3 pp 

-14% 

(pp) Decline 

declining significantly, but at a 

slower rate. 

5. Literary reading is declining among whites, African Americans, and Hispanics. 

Literary Reading by Race/Ethnicity 

White 

African American 

Hispanic 

Other 

1982 

59.8 

42.3 

36.4 

50.2 

Percentage by Group Percentage Point (pp) Change 

1992 

58.0 

45.6 

34.0 

42.7 

2002 

51.4 

37.1 

26.5 

43.7 

1992-2002 

-6.6 pp 

-8.5 pp 

-7.5 pp 

+1.0 pp 

1982-2002 

-8.4 pp 

-5.2 pp 

-9.9 pp 

-6.5 pp 

National Endowment for the Arts x Reading at Risk 
6. Literary reading is declining among all education levels. 

7. Literary reading is declining among all age groups. 

Literary Reading by Education 

Grade School 

Some High School 

High School Graduate 

Some College 

College Graduate/ 

Graduate School 

1982 

21.2 

38.8 

54.2 

72.9 

82.1 

Percentage by Group Percentage Point (pp) Change 

1992 

17.3 

34.5 

49.0 

65.0 

74.6 

2002 

14.0 

23.3 

37.7 

52.9 

66.7 

1992-2002 

-3.3 pp 

-11.1 pp 

-11.3 pp 

-12.1 pp 

-7.9 pp 

-7.2 pp 

-15.4 pp 

-16.5 pp 

-20.0 pp 

-15.4 pp 

1982-2002 

Literary Reading by Age 

18-24 

25-34 

35-44 

45-54 

55-64 

65-74 

75 & Older 

1982 

59.8 

62.1 

59.7 

54.9 

52.8 

47.2 

40.9 

Percentage by Group Percentage Point (pp) Change 

1992 

53.3 

54.6 

58.9 

56.9 

52.9 

50.8 

40.4 

2002 

42.8 

47.7 

46.6 

51.6 

48.9 

45.3 

36.7 

1992-2002 

-10.5 pp 

-6.9 pp 

-12.3 pp 

-5.3 pp 

-4.0 pp 

-5.5 pp 

-3.7 pp 

-17.0 pp 

-14.4 pp 

-13.1 pp 

-3.3 pp 

-3.9 pp 

-1.9 pp 

-4.2 pp 

1982-2002 

8. The steepest decline in literary reading is in the youngest age groups. 

Literary Reading by Young Adults ■

Age Group 

18-24 

25-34 

All Ages 

1982 

59.8 

62.1 

56.9 

Percentage of Group Rate of Decline 

1992 

53.3 

54.6 

54.0 

2002 

42.8 

47.7 

46.7 

1982-2002 

-28 

-23 

-18 

% 

■ 

■	 The higher the education level, the 

higher the reading rate, but reading 

among every group has declined over 

the past 20 years. 

Over the past 20 years, young adults (18-34) 

have declined from being those most likely to 

read literature to those least likely (with 

the exception of those age 65 and above).

The rate of decline for the youngest adults 

(18-24) is 55 percent greater than that of the 

total adult population (-28 percent vs. -18 

percent). 

National Endowment for the Arts xi Reading at Risk 
9. The decline in literary reading foreshadows an 

erosion in cultural and civic participation. 

Participation in Cultural and Social Activities 

Perform Volunteer and Charity Work 

Visit Art Museums 

Attend Performing Arts Events 

Attend Sporting Events 

43.0 

44.0 

49.0 

45.0 

Percentage of U.S. Adult Population 

Literary Readers Non-Literary Readers 

17.0 

12.0 

17.0 

27.0 

■ 

■ 

10. The decline in reading correlates with increased 

participation in a variety of electronic media, 

including the Internet, video games, and portable 

digital devices. 

■	 Literature now competes with an enormous array 

of electronic media. While no single activity is 

responsible for the decline of reading, the 

cumulative presence and availability of these 

alternatives have increasingly drawn Americans 

away from reading. 

■	 Non-readers watch more television than do 

readers. 

■	 In 1990, book buying constituted 5.7 percent of 

total recreation spending, while spending on audio, 

video, computers, and software was 6 percent. By 

2002, electronic spending had soared to 24 percent, 

while spending on books declined slightly to 5.6 

percent. 

■	 A 1999 study showed that the average American 

child lives in a household with 2.9 televisions, 1.8 

VCRs, 3.1 radios, 2.1 CD players, 1.4 video game 

players, and 1 computer. 

Literary reading strongly correlates to 

other forms of active civic participation. 

Literary readers are more likely than 

non-literary readers to perform volunteer 

and charity work, visit art museums, 

attend performing arts events, and attend 

sporting events. 

National Endowment for the Arts xii Reading at Risk 
Conclusion 

Reading at Risk presents a distressing but objective 

overview of national trends. The accelerating declines 

in literary reading among all demographic groups of 

American adults indicate an imminent cultural crisis. 

The trends among younger adults warrant special 

concern, suggesting that – unless some effective 

solution is found – literary culture, and literacy in 

general, will continue to worsen. Indeed, at the 

current rate of loss, literary reading as a leisure activity 

will virtually disappear in half a century. 

Reading at Risk is testimony that a cultural legacy is 

disappearing, especially among younger people. 

Twenty years ago, just after the NEA 1982 survey, the 

landmark study A Nation at Risk warned that “a rising 

tide of mediocrity” had overtaken the school system 

and threatened a generation of students. The report 

sparked a massive reform effort whose consequences 

are still evolving today. Reading at Risk reveals an 

equally dire situation, a culture at risk. The National 

Endowment for the Arts calls upon public agencies, 

cultural organizations, the press, and educators to take 

stock of the sliding literary condition of our country. 

It is time to inspire a nationwide renaissance of 

literary reading and bring the transformative power of 

literature into the lives of all citizens. 

National Endowment for the Arts xiii Reading at Risk 
Chapter 1: Introduction


W ho reads literature in America? 

Novels, short stories, poetry, and plays have 

their own intrinsic value, as do all of the arts. Beyond 

the benefits of literature to the individual lie the 

benefits to a culture as a whole. Who reads literary 

works, what kinds, how often, and how much – all 

measure the well being of a culture. Do we value 

reading? Encourage it in our homes, schools, and the 

wider community? 

The question of who reads is one of particular 

social importance. Reading is both a reflection of 

disparate education levels and a way of bridging the 

differences among them. Reading is obviously related 

to the literacy of a nation, which in turn is related to 

the quality of life of its citizens. If literacy is the 

baseline for participation in social life, then reading – 

and reading of literary work in particular – is essential 

to a sound and healthy understanding of, and 

participation in, a democratic society. 

Levels of public participation in literature also 

matter to the economic vitality of the publishing 

industry – from publishers large and small, 

distributors, and bookstores to individual poets, 

dramatists, and fiction writers. Books are big business 

in the United States. In 2000, the book industry 

published 122,000 new titles and sold a total of 2.5 

billion books, a number that has tripled over the past 

25 years.1 Given these figures, some have expressed 

the opinion that there is currently an “explosive 

growth in America’s book culture.”2 

Research into the habits of readers is important to 

provide information about the state of literature and 

literacy, to examine the market for books, and to assess 

the relationship of literature to other areas of arts and 

culture. Although this monograph cannot explore all 

of these issues, it examines a number of demographic, 

lifestyle, and other factors that may influence 

literature participation. In particular, the Survey of 

Public Participation in the Arts allows us to examine 

whether literary reading varies based on demographic 

(e.g., gender, ethnicity, race, education, and age), 

socioeconomic (e.g., family income, employment 

status, and occupation), and geographic (e.g., regions 

and states) factors. 

Data Collection 

The 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

(SPPA) was conducted as a supplement to the U.S. 

Census Bureau’s Current Population Study (CPS), 

which scientifically selects households to represent the 

socio-economic characteristics of the U.S. population. 

The Census Bureau also conducted arts participation 

surveys in 1982 and 1992. 

In the 2002 SPPA, 17,135 adults, age 18 and older, 

were interviewed, primarily by telephone. 

Demographic data including gender, income, 

educational level, age, and race/ethnicity were used in 

weighting the survey data so that the results match 

characteristics of the total U.S. adult population. The 

Census Bureau determined the weight for each survey 

record. 

Interviewed in August 2002, survey respondents 

were asked about their arts participation activities in 

the prior 12 months. The response rate to the survey 

was 70 percent, similar to the rate in the second half of 

the 1992 survey (68 percent). Appendices A and B 

provide background information and data collection 

procedures for both the SPPA and CPS. 

Literature vs. Books 

The SPPA investigates arts participation in a variety 

of art forms, including attendance at live concerts, 

plays, and dance performances; visits to art museums 

and historic sites; and participation through 

broadcasts, recorded media, and the Internet. This 

monograph focuses on the survey’s questions related to 

reading literature, listening to readings or recordings 

of literature, and creative writing activities. 

The 2002 SPPA asked respondents if, during the 

past 12 months, they had read any novels or short 

stories, plays, or poetry. A positive response to any of 

1 See Gayle Feldman, Best and Worst of Times: The Changing Business of Trade Books, 1975-2002, Columbia University’s National Arts Journalism Program, (2003). 

2 J. Peder Zane, “America the Literate,” newsobserver.com, Dec. 15, 2002. 

National Endowment for the Arts 1 Reading at Risk 
those three categories is counted as reading literature, 

including popular genres such as mysteries, as well as 

contemporary and classic literary fiction. No 

distinctions were drawn on the quality of literary 

works. 

In addition to the three questions pertaining to 

literature, the SPPA asked respondents if they had 

read any books, and, if so, how many. The distinction 

between reading literary works and reading any books 

is important to the analysis presented in this report. 

Books can be of any type and cover a vast array of 

subjects, literary and non-literary alike, and for the 

purposes of the survey, the respondents need to have 

read as a leisure time activity, not for work or school. 

Literature, of course, can be found in sources 

other than books. Poetry, drama, and fiction can be 

read in magazines and literary journals, even on 

subway and bus placards. The Poetry Society of 

America, for example, provides poetry to transit 

authorities throughout the country, including Los 

Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and 

Dallas. 

In several sections of this monograph, literary 

readers will be classified in terms of how many books 

of any type that they have read. This measure of 

book-reading frequency is used to investigate broad 

characteristics of literary readers. For example, Table 

5 (shown in Chapter 2) shows the percentage of adults 

who volunteered or did charity work. About 17 

percent of those who did not read literature did 

charity work; more than 43 percent of literary readers 

did. Almost half of literary readers who also read 50 

or more books in 2002 (i.e., “avid readers”) did charity 

work. Therefore, the number of books read is used to 

investigate how literary readers spend their time, and 

how their time usage differed from those who did not 

read literature. 

Throughout this monograph, information from 

the SPPA will be supplemented with information on 

literature from a range of sources, including research 

reports, essays, newspaper articles, and books. 

The rest of this monograph is organized as follows: 

• Chapter 2 summarizes the participation in literary 

activities in 2002; 

• Chapter 3 analyzes factors affecting literature 

participation in 2002; 

• Chapter 4 examines trends in literature participation 

between 1982 and 2002; and 

• Chapter 5 provides a summary and conclusion for 

the monograph. 

National Endowment for the Arts 2 Reading at Risk 
Chapter 2: Literature Participation in 2002


A mericans participate in a wide range of literary 

activities, including book reading, listening to 

recorded literary readings or attending live 

readings, and pursuing their own creative writing. 

The 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

(SPPA) asked people 18 years of age or older a series 

of questions about their literary activities. This chapter 

highlights findings from the SPPA on general levels of 

participation in literary activities; numbers of books 

read; and literature participation compared with other 

cultural and leisure activities. The SPPA shows the 

levels of “crossover” participation, that is, the number 

of literary readers who also participate in a range of 

additional cultural and leisure activities. Finally, levels 

of literature participation in the U.S. are compared 

with literature and reading surveys in other countries. 

Unless otherwise noted, all information in this chapter 

refers to SPPA respondents’ activities during the oneyear period between August 2001 and August 2002. 

For simplicity, this time period will be referred to 

throughout this report as 2002. 

Figure 1 and Table 1 summarize responses to a 

range of literature participation questions. These 

graphics show that over one-half of respondents (57 

percent) indicated that they read at least one book in 

2002 (not counting books required for work or 

school).3 This amounts to about 117 million people 18 

years of age or older. The SPPA also asked about the 

types of literature read. 

The most common types of literature read were 

novels or short stories (45 percent of adults or 93 

million people).4 Poetry was read by 12 percent of 

adults, or 25 million people.5 A smaller number of 

adults (4 percent or 7 million people) indicated that 

they read a play during the previous year.

6 

Grouping novel, short story, poetry, and play 

readers into a single category of literary readers shows 

that just under one-half of all adults (47 percent) read 

literature in 2002. This represents 96 million people 

and forms the group that is the principal focus of this 

monograph. The definition of literature used in this 

report encompasses any type of fiction, poetry, and 

plays that the SPPA respondents felt should be 

included and not just what literary critics might 

consider literature. Respondents were not asked what 

genre of works they read, nor were they asked 

whether they read literary non-fiction such as 

criticism, commentary, and essays. By this definition, 

0 

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60% 

56.6% Read any book 

Read novel or short story 

Read poetry 

Read plays 

Listened to readings of novels 

Listened to poetry readings 

Did personal creative writing 

Took creative writing classes or lessons 

Americans 18 years of age or older 

Source: 2002 Survey of Public Participation 

in the Arts 

45.1% 

12.1% 

3.6% 

9.3% 

5.9% 7.1% 

1.0% 

Figure 1: Participation in Literary Activities, 2002 

3The wording of the question asked is: “With the exception of books required for work or school, did you read any books during the last 12 months?”


4“During the last 12 months, did you read any novels or short stories?”


5“During the last 12 months, did you read any poetry?”


6“During the last 12 months, did you read any plays?”


National Endowment for the Arts 3 Reading at Risk 
if the proportion of those reading 

literary works is subtracted from 

the total number of people who 

read at least one book of any kind, 

about ten percent of the population 

read only non-literary books. 

The SPPA results also reveal 

that just less than one in ten people 

(9 percent) listened to live or 

recorded readings of novels or 

books in the previous year.

7 This 

amounts to 19 million people. A 

Table 1 

U.S. Adult Participation in Literary Activities in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002 

Read any book 

Read literature 

Including: 

Read a novel or short story 

Read poetry 

Read a play 

Listened to live or recorded readings of novels or books 

Read or listened to poetry 

Including: 

Read poetry 

Listened to live or recorded readings of poetry 

Did personal creative writing 

-published 

-unpublished 

Took creative writing classes or lessons 

-in past year 

-ever 

Used Internet to learn about, read or discuss topics related to literature 

% of population 

56.6 

46.7 

45.1 

12.1 

3.6 

9.3 

14.3 

12.1 

5.9 

7.0 

1.0 

6.1 

1.0 

13.3 

9.2 

Millions of people 

117 

96 

93 

25 

7 

19 

30 

25 

12 

14 

2 

13 

2 

27 

19 

% 

smaller number (6 percent or 12 

million people) listened to live or 

recorded readings of poetry.

8 

Seven percent of adults (or 15 

million people) indicated that they did some creative 

writing during 2002.9 For most, this activity appears 

to be done more for personal fulfillment than for 

income or public enjoyment, as only 1 percent (or 2 

million people) had a work published.10 

Respondents were also asked whether they took 

creative writing classes or lessons, and 13 percent of 

adults (or 27 million people) indicated that they had 

taken a class at some point in their lives.11 Most 

respondents indicated that the classes were taken 

while they were in elementary or high school. Only a 

small percentage (1 percent or 2 million people) 

indicated that they took creative writing classes or 

lessons during the survey year.

12 

Given the increasing importance of the Internet as 

a tool for the arts, the 2002 SPPA asked respondents 

whether they use the Internet to learn about, read, or 

discuss topics related to literature. About 9 percent of 

adults (or 19 million people) said they had.13 

Number of Books Read 

The 2002 SPPA asked all respondents how many 

books they read in 2002.14 Respondents who answered 

affirmatively indicated that they read approximately 

six books. Extrapolated for the population as a whole, 

this means Americans read about 2.1 billion books in 

the survey year.

15 

The general book-reading habits of literary readers 

vary widely. Readers of literary works can be divided 

into four categories: “light” readers (1-5 books during 

the year, both literary and non-literary), “moderate” 

readers (6-11 books per year, both literary and nonliterary), “frequent” readers (at least one book every 

month, i.e., 12-49 books per year, both literary and 

non-literary), and “avid” readers (about one book every 

week, i.e., 50 or more books per year, both literary and 

non-literary). The percentage of people in each 

category is as follows: light readers 21 percent, 

moderate readers 9 percent, frequent readers 12 

percent, and avid readers 4 percent. In other words, 

about one in six people reads 12 or more books in a 

7 “During the last 12 months, did you listen to a reading of novels or books, either live or recorded?”


8 “During the last 12 months, did you listen to a reading of poetry, either live or recorded?”
 9 “With the exception of work or school, did you do any creative writing such as stories, poems or plays during the last 12 months?”
 10 “Were any of your writings published?”
 11 “Have you ever taken lessons or classes in creative writing?”
 12 “Did you take any of these lessons or classes in the past year?”
 13 “Do you use the Internet to learn about, read or discuss topics related to literature - novels, poetry or plays?”
 14 The number of books read includes all books read (outside of work or school), not just novels, short stories, poetry, and plays.
 15 This median number of books read (6) is the point where half of all readers read more books and half read less. The mean (commonly called “average”) number of books read 


was 18.5. (The mean is much higher than the median because of the impact of those readers who indicated that they read a very large number of books.) The total books read estimate


of 2.1 billion is a product of the number of readers (117 million) times the mean number of books read (18).


National Endowment for the Arts 4 Reading at Risk 
year (just fewer than 17 percent are in the “frequent” 

or “avid” reader categories). 

Comparison of Literature Participation with Other Cultural and Leisure Activities 

How does literary reading compare to other cultural, 

sports, and leisure activities? Literary reading is 

clearly an important component of Americans’ leisure 

activities. The data in Table 2 demonstrate that the 

proportion of people reading literature is higher than 

participation in most cultural, sports, and leisure 

activities. In fact, of the activities included in the 2002 

SPPA, only TV watching, moviegoing, and exercising 

attract significantly more people than reading literary 

works. Literary reading is much more popular than 

Table 2 

U.S. Adults Participation in Cultural, Sports, and Leisure Activities 

in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002 

Watch at least one hour of TV per day (on average) 

Go out to movies 

Jog, lift weights, walk or other exercise program 

Work with indoor plants or do any gardening (for pleasure) 

Read literature 

Including: 

Read novel or short story 

Read poetry 

Read play 

Watch 3 or more hours of TV per day (on average) 

Make repairs or improvements on home 

Go to amusement/theme park or carnival 

Attend amateur or professional sports (excluding youth sports) 

Visit art or craft festival or fair 

Attend any of 7 live performing arts activities 

(except school performances) 

Including: 

Musical stage play or operetta 

Non-musical stage play 

Classical music 

Jazz 

Other dance 

Ballet 

Opera 

Visit historic park or monument / Tour historic buildings or neighborhoods 

Do outdoor activities, such as camping, hiking or canoeing 

Participate in any sports activity 

Do volunteer or charity work 

Attend art museum or gallery 

95.7 

60.0 

55.1 

47.3 

46.7 

45.1 

12.1 

3.6 

46.2 

42.4 

41.7 

35.0 

33.4 

31.8 

17.1 

12.3 

11.6 

10.8 

6.3 

3.9 

3.2 

31.6 

30.9 

30.4 

29.0 

26.5 

197 

124 

113 

97 

96 

93 

25 

7 

95 

87 

86 

72 

69 

65 

35 

25 

24 

22 

13 

8 

7 

65 

64 

63 

60 

55 

% 

% of 

population 

Millions 

of people 

attending sporting or performing arts events or 

visiting art museums or galleries. In 2002, about the 

same percentage of people read literature as watched 

an average of three or more hours of TV per day. 

Table 2 also shows that, with about 93 million 

readers, novels and short stories have a significant 

audience in the U.S. Poetry, with 25 million readers, is 

about as popular as attendance at performances of 

jazz, classical music, or non-musical plays. About as 

many people – 7 million – read plays as attend live 

opera or ballet. 

Participation of Literary Readers in Other Cultural

and Leisure Activities 

Readers are highly social people, frequently engaged 

in the arts, sports, and community life. Analysis of 

the 2002 SPPA data in Tables 3 through 7 show 

that people who read literature are active, 

attending a variety of arts events, volunteering in 

their communities, and participating in sports. In 

fact, literary readers are much more likely to 

participate than those who do not read. For 

example, literary readers are nearly three times as 

likely to attend a performing arts event, almost 

four times as likely to visit an art museum, over 

two-and-a-half times as likely to do volunteer or 

charity work, over one-and-a-half times as likely 

to attend sporting events, and over one-and-a-half 

times as likely to participate in sports activities. In 

fact, people who read larger numbers of books 

tend to have the highest levels of participation in 

other activities, especially arts activities. 

The first row of Table 3 shows that, in 2002, 

32 percent of people attended a performing arts 

event (including jazz, classical music, opera, 

musical and non-musical plays, ballet, and other 

dance performances). The second and third rows 

of Table 3 show that the performing arts 

attendance rates of literary readers and those who 

did not read are strikingly different: 49 percent of 

literary readers attended a performing arts event, 

compared to 17 percent of those who did not read 

literature during the year. Literary readers are 

National Endowment for the Arts 5 Reading at Risk 
Table 3 

Performing Arts Attendance by U.S. Adults, 2002 

All adults 

Did not read literature 

Read literature 

*Light book readers (1-5 books) 

*Moderate book readers (6-11 books) 

*Frequent book readers (12-49 books) 

*Avid book readers (50 books or more) 

31.8 

16.7 

49.0 

41.2 

51.9 

57.0 

58.2 

Number of Attenders 

(millions) 

65 

18 

47 

18 

10 

14 

5 

% 

% Attending 

*Note: Books can be of any type, literary and non-literary 

nearly three times as likely to attend performing arts 

events. 

The last four rows of Table 3 show that 

performing arts attendance rates are highest for those 

who have read the most books. Moreover, the 47 

million literary readers who attended a performing 

arts event in 2002 account for nearly three-quarters (72 

percent) of all attendees. 

Table 4 shows that 26 percent of people visited an 

art museum in 2002. Literary readers are much more 

likely to visit art museums (44 percent) than nonreaders are (12 percent). Art museum attendance rates 

are highest for those who have read the most books. 

The 42 million literary readers who visited an art 

museum in 2002 comprise over three-quarters (77 

percent) of the total art museum visiting public. 

Table 4 

Art Museum Attendance by U.S. Adults, 2002 

All adults 

Did not read literature 

Read literature 

*Light book readers (1-5 books) 

*Moderate book readers (6-11 books) 

*Frequent book readers (12-49 books) 

*Avid book readers (50 books or more) 

% Attending 

26.5 

11.6 

43.5 

34.9 

47.2 

53.1 

50.9 

Number of Attenders 

(millions) 

55 

13 

42 

15 

9 

13 

5 

% 

*Note: Books can be of any type, literary and non-literary 

Literary readers are also engaged citizens. Table 5 

shows that 29 percent of all survey respondents did 

volunteer or charity work in 2002. As with the 

findings noted above for performing arts and art 

museum attendance, there is a striking difference 

between the rates of volunteer or charity work of 

literary readers (43 percent) and non-readers (17 

percent). Frequent readers are most likely to have 

Table 5 

Volunteer and Charity Work by U.S. Adults, 2002 

All adults 

Did not read literature 

Read literature 

*Light book readers (1-5 books) 

*Moderate book readers (6-11 books) 

* Frequent book readers (12-49 books) 

*Avid book readers (50 books or more) 

% Volunteering 

29.0 

16.6 

43.3 

36.5 

45.9 

51.1 

49.2 

Number of Volunteers 

(millions) 

60 

18 

42 

16 

8 

13 

5 

% 

*Note: Books can be of any type, literary and non-literary 

volunteered or done charity work in 2002. 

Readers of literary works attend sporting events 

and participate in sporting activities themselves at rates 

higher than non-readers. The first row in Table 6 

shows that 35 percent of all adults attended an amateur 

or professional sporting event (excluding youth sports) 

in 2002. Sports attendance was much more common 

among literary readers (45 percent) than non-readers 

(27 percent). Sports attendance does decrease 

somewhat for avid readers, but still remains above the 

sports attendance rate of those who do not read literary 

works. 

In terms of active sports participation, Table 7 

shows that 30 percent of all adults participated in a 

sports activity in 2002. Again, literary readers are more 

likely to participate in sports (38 percent) than nonreaders (24 percent). Sports participation is somewhat 

lower for readers of 50 books or more than for lessfrequent readers. Still, the sports participation 

rate of avid readers (31 percent) is higher than the 

participation of people who do not read literary works 

(24 percent). 

National Endowment for the Arts 6 Reading at Risk 
Table 6 

Sporting Events Attendance by U.S. Adults, 2002 

All adults 

Did not read literature 

Read literature 

*Light book readers (1-5 books) 

*Moderate book readers (6-11 books) 

*Frequent book readers (12-49 books) 

*Avid book readers (50 books or more) 

% Attending 

35.0 

26.7 

44.5 

43.2 

46.9 

47.5 

37.7 

Number of Attenders 

(millions) 

72 

29 

43 

19 

9 

12 

3 

% 

(15 years of age or older).17 Like the Canadian 

figure reported above, this amount includes reading 

any type of book outside of work or school, not just 

novels, short stories, plays or poetry. The most 

comparable U.S. figure (57 percent) is quite high 

compared to the overall European average, and is 

similar to the reading rate in a number of 

European countries (Luxembourg 56 percent, 

Denmark 55 percent, and the Netherlands 53 

percent). The highest European reading rates are in 

*Note: Books can be of any type, literary and non-literary 

International Comparisons 

A survey similar to the SPPA was conducted in 

Canada in 1998. In response to a question about their 

reading habits, two-thirds of Canadians (15 years of 

age or older) indicated that they read a book during 

the survey year.

16 The most comparable figure from 

the U.S. survey would be the overall book reading rate 

(outside of work and school) among Americans 18 

years of age or older. This figure is 57 percent, 

markedly lower than the Canadian percentage of 67 

percent. 

A recent study reported that the overall book 

reading rate in 15 European countries was 45 percent 

survey year, for literary readers: 

Table 7 

U.S. Adults Playing Leisure Sports, 2002 

All adults 

Did not read literature 

Read literature 

*Light book readers (1-5 books) 

*Moderate book readers (6-11 books) 

*Frequent book readers (12-49 books) 

*Avid book readers (50 books or more) 

% Participating 

30.4 

23.9 

37.9 

36.1 

41.7 

40.8 

31.1 

Number of Participants 

(millions) 

63 

26 

36 

16 

8 

10 

3 

*Note: Books can be of any type, literary and non-literary 

% 

Sweden (72 percent), Finland (66 percent), and the 

United Kingdom (63 percent), and the lowest rates 

are in Belgium (23 percent) and Portugal (15 

percent). 

The European study also defined “strong readers” 

as those who read eight or more books during the 

year. Overall, about 37 percent of Europeans fall 

into this category, with a high of 52 percent in the 

U.K. to a low of 15 percent in Portugal. A 

recalculation of the American figures shows that 

about 24 percent of Americans read eight or more 

books in 2002. The percentage of “strong readers” 

in the U.S. falls in the bottom third of the 15 

European countries surveyed. 

Summary of Literature

Participation in 2002 

The results from the 2002 Survey of Public 

Participation in the Arts show that literary reading is a 

popular but declining leisure activity, reaching about 

one-half of the adult population (47 percent), or 96 

million people. 

Among readers of literary works, the most 

popular category is fiction, with 45 percent of the 

population reading novels and/or short stories. About 

12 percent read poetry, while about 4 percent read 

plays. 

In terms of the frequency of reading, during the 

16 Calculations by Hill Strategies Research Inc. from Statistics Canada’s General Social Survey 1998. This figure is based on the population 15 or older. The question asked was: “During


the past 12 months, as a leisure activity (not for paid work or studies) did you read a book?”


17 The percentages reported here reflect the percentage of respondents (15 or older) indicating that they read a book for reasons other than work or study in the survey year (2000/01).


The figures are taken from Key Figures on Cultural Participation in the European Union, a presentation by Michail Skaliotis to the International Symposium on Culture Statistics,


Montreal, October 2002. Available at www.readingeurope.org/observatory.nsf/InternationalSurveyA?OpenPage.


National Endowment for the Arts 7 Reading at Risk 
• About one in five (21 percent) read 1 to 5 books; 

• About one in 11 (9 percent) read 6 to 11 books; 

• Almost one in eight (12 percent) read 12 to 49 books; 

and 

• Approximately one in 25 (4 percent) read 50 books 

or more. 

The SPPA results reveal that almost one in ten people 

(9 percent) listened to live or recorded readings of 

novels or books and 6 percent listened to poetry 

readings during the survey year. About 7 percent 

wrote creative works of their own, and 9 percent used 

the Internet to learn about, read, or discuss topics 

related to literature. 

An examination of literary readers’ participation 

in other cultural and leisure activities clearly shows 

that literary readers are active and social. The high 

degree of crossover attendance indicates that book 

marketing directed at arts attenders may be effective. 

This also means that arts organizations could target 

literary readers in order to increase attendance. The 

high level of volunteer participation by literary readers 

suggests that organizations trying to develop their 

volunteer base should target literary readers. 

While no direct comparisons are available for 

literary reading, the SPPA and other research indicate 

that the U.S. falls behind Canada and several 

European nations in overall reading rates. 

National Endowment for the Arts 8 Reading at Risk 
Chapter 3: Factors in Literary Reading


A number of demographic, lifestyle, and other 

factors influence literature participation. 

Knowledge of these factors is important both 

to understand current readership and to develop 

readers in different demographic groups. On one 

hand, statistics demonstrate that literary reading varies 

significantly by gender, ethnicity, race, education, and 

other variables. On the other hand, literary reading 

varies somewhat less by age and family income. 

In addition to the literary reading inquiries 

presented in this chapter, two statistical models were 

created in order to identify the factors most closely 

associated with literary reading and frequent literary 

reading. The statistical models help establish an 

association between certain demographic 

characteristics and literary reading rates. In particular, 

the models give estimates of the likelihood of someone 

in a particular group (e.g., men) reading literature, 

compared to others (e.g., women), accounting for the 

fact that men and women do not necessarily have the 

same levels of education, income, or other 

characteristics that can lead to higher rates of literary 

reading. The major findings of the statistical models 

are highlighted throughout the chapter, and Appendix 

C to this monograph provides more information about 

the models. 

Demographic and Geographic Factors in Literary Reading 

Table 8 summarizes the estimates of literary reading 

rates of Americans in various demographic groups 

based on the 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the 

Arts. Overall, 47 percent of adults, about 96 million 

people, read literature during the survey year. This 

reading rate provides a benchmark measure for all 

other estimates. That is, any group with a literary 

reading rate lower than 47 percent can be considered 

underrepresented among literary readers, and any 

group with a rate over 47 percent can be thought of as 

overrepresented. 

More women read literature than men. The 

survey found that, in 2002, 55 percent of women read 

literature vs. 38 percent of men. This gap is supported 

Table 8 

Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Adults Reading 

Literature in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002 

Demographic 

characteristics 

Overall population 

Gender 

Female 

Male 

Ethnicity and race 

Hispanic 

White 

African American 

Other 

Age 

18 to 24 

25 to 34 

35 to 44 

45 to 54 

55 to 64 

65 to 74 

75 or older 

Education 

Grade school 

Some high school 

High school graduate 

Some college 

College graduate 

Graduate school 

Family income 

$9,999 or less 

$10,000 to $19,999 

$20,000 to $29,999 

$30,000 to $39,999 

$40,000 to $49,999 

$50,000 to $74,999 

$75,000 or more 

Income not reported 

% reading literature 

46.7 

55.1 

37.6 

26.5 

51.4 

37.1 

43.7 

42.8 

47.7 

46.6 

51.6 

48.9 

45.3 

36.7 

14.0 

23.4 

37.7 

52.9 

63.1 

74.3 

32.1 

37.5 

37.5 

44.1 

47.9 

52.3 

60.8 

39.8 

Number reading literature 

(millions of adults) 

96 

59 

37 

6 

77 

9 

4 

11 

18 

21 

20 

13 

8 

6 

2 

5 

24 

30 

23 

13 

5 

8 

9 

11 

8 

18 

28 

9 

% 

National Endowment for the Arts 9 Reading at Risk 
by the statistical model, which found that men were 

less than half as likely as women to read literature, 

once differences in education, income, and other 

demographic and economic factors were accounted 

for. 

Literary reading is also unequal among different 

ethnic and racial groups.18 White Americans have the 

highest literature participation rate (51 percent), much 

higher than that of African Americans (37 percent) 

and Hispanic Americans (26 percent). The statistical 

model of literary reading shows that, compared to 

Hispanic Americans, white Americans are almost 

twice as likely to read literature, even keeping other 

factors constant, such as the higher overall levels of 

education among white Americans. African 

Americans are about 30 percent more likely than 

Hispanic Americans to read literature.19 

A percent distribution of literary 

readers by ethnicity and race shows that 80 

percent are white, 9 percent are African 

American, and 6 percent are Hispanic 

rates. In fact, the percentage of literary readers in 

every age group is only a percentage point or two 

different from each age group’s share of the overall 

population. The report of the 2001 Consumer Research 

Study on Book Purchasing confirms the SPPA findings 

by stating that “books appeal to consumers of all 

ages.”20 

In the statistical model of literary reading, the only 

age group that was found to be a significant factor in 

literary reading is the youngest age group (18- 24). 

Accounting for differences in education, income, and 

other socioeconomic factors, people in this age group 

were about 15 percent less likely than others to read 

literature. 

Despite the relative consistency in reading among 

the different age groups, the fact that the youngest age 

group has the lowest literary reading rate raises 

American. A more in-depth focus on 

ethnicity and race is provided later in this 

chapter. 

Age 

In contrast to the distinct differences in 

literary reading by gender and ethnic or 

racial background, Figure 2 shows that 

literary reading is reasonably consistent 

between people in different age ranges, 

with the exception of a very low reading 

rate among those 75 or older. The next 

lowest literary reading rate is among 

young adults aged 18-24 years (43 percent), 

while the highest rate is for those between 

45-54 years (52 percent). All of the age 

groups (below 75) fall within this 

reasonably narrow range of participation 

0% 

10% 

20% 

30% 

40% 

50% 

42.8% 

National Average 

46.7% 

47.7% 46.6% 

51.6% 48.9% 

45.3% 

36.7% 

60% 

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and 

older 

Americans 18 years of age or older 

Figure 2: Literary Reading Rates by Age, 2002 

Source: 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

18 The ethnic and racial groups examined include Hispanic Americans (of any race), non-Hispanic white Americans (referred to as simply “white Americans” in this monograph), nonHispanic African Americans (referred to as simply “African Americans”), and Other ethnic or racial groups. 

19 The SPPA literature questions did not specify the language of books read. 20 2001 Consumer Research Study on Book Purchasing, Book Industry Study Group, p. 63. 

National Endowment for the Arts 10 Reading at Risk 
questions about the future of literary reading in 

America. Is this an indication of a decline in reading, 

possibly due to competition from TV, videogames, 

movies, and the Internet? Or is it simply a “natural” 

function of the fact that younger people are 

temporarily preoccupied with other types of reading 

(textbooks and coursework) or other leisure activities? 

Will those in the youngest age group read more as 

they age? Chapter 4 looks at trends in literary reading 

since 1982, including an analysis of trends in literary 

reading for specific age groups. 

Ethnicity and Race 

Literary reading rates differ among ethnic and racial 

groups in America, due in part to differences in 

culture, language, socioeconomics, education, and 

other factors outside the scope of the SPPA. able 9 

gives a breakdown of literary reading rates by gender, 

age, education, and income for people in each of these 

ethnic and racial groups. Some interesting differences 

emerge from the data in Table 9. For instance, an 

examination of literary reading rates by gender shows 

that women have much higher literary reading rates 

Table 9 

Literary Reading by Race and Ethnicity, U.S. Adults 

in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002 

Demographic characteristics 

Overall literature reading rate 

Gender 

Male 

Female 

Age 

18 to 24 

25 to 34 

35 to 44 

45 to 54 

55 to 64 

65 to 74 

75 or older 

Education 

Grade school 

Some high school 

High school graduate 

Some college 

College graduate 

Graduate school 

Family income 

$9,999 or less 

$10,000 to $19,999 

$20,000 to $29,999 

$30,000 to $39,999 

$40,000 to $49,999 

$50,000 to $74,999 

$75,000 or more 

Income not reported 

Hispanic Americans 

(% reading literature) 

26.5 

18.4 

34.1 

21.6 

31.9 

24.5 

28.7 

32.2 

14.3 

17.7 

11.7 

19.9 

28.7 

34.0 

52.2 

57.0 

19.5 

26.8 

21.9 

25.4 

23.4 

37.1 

39.6 

22.7 

African Americans* 

(% reading literature) 

37.1 

29.8 

42.9 

34.8 

43.8 

43.7 

35.9 

32.8 

27.0 

16.7 

6.5 

22.2 

29.3 

45.8 

58.6 

59.9 

26.9 

33.5 

33.4 

38.4 

45.7 

45.6 

51.8 

30.2 

White Americans* 

(% reading literature) 

51.3 

41.4 

60.7 

48.6 

51.7 

51.3 

56.8 

53.1 

50.5 

40.3 

19.2 

14.0 

40.4 

55.6 

66.1 

76.1 

38.6 

41.6 

42.4 

48.9 

50.3 

54.9 

62.8 

44.5 

% % 

T

% 

than men in all ethnic and racial groups. 

In addition, the data show that the lowest 

literary reading rate is among male 

Hispanic Americans (18 percent), 

followed by male African Americans (30 

percent), and female Hispanic Americans 

(34 percent). Male white Americans and 

female African Americans read literature 

in similar proportions (41 percent and 43 

percent, respectively). Female white 

Americans have by far the highest 

literary reading rate – 61 percent. 

There are also interesting age-related 

differences in literary reading habits 

among people in different ethnic and 

racial groups. For white Americans, 

literary reading is fairly evenly 

distributed by age. This is less true for 

African Americans, for whom literary 

reading is most common among younger 

age groups (25 to 34 and 35 to 44). This is 

undoubtedly related to higher education 

levels among younger African 

Americans. There is no consistent pattern 

of literary reading by Hispanic 

Americans. The highest reading rates are 

for those in the 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 age 

groups. 

The data in Table 9 show that literary 

reading is strongly related to education 

levels in all ethnic and racial groups. 

*Not including Hispanics Those with college education have much 

National Endowment for the Arts 11 Reading at Risk 
14.0% 

National Average 

46.7% 

23.4% 

37.7% 

52.9% 

63.1% 

74.3% 

Grade 

School 

Some 

High

School 

High

School 

Graduate 

Some 

College CollegeGraduate 

Graduate 

School 

Americans 18 years of age or older 

Figure 3: Literary Reading Rates by Education, 2002 

Source: 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

0% 

10% 

20% 

30% 

40% 

50% 

60% 

70% 

80% 

The statistical model shows that, compared 

to high school graduates: 

• those with a grade school education are 

almost 60 percent less likely to read 

literature; 

• those with some high school education 

(but no diploma) are about a third less likely 

(35 percent) to read literature; 

• those with some college education (but no 

degree) are about 35 percent more likely to 

read literature; 

• those with a college degree are about 75 

percent more likely to read literature; and 

• those with a graduate school degree are 

240 percent more likely to read literature. 

Research into consumers’ book purchases 

confirms the SPPA findings that highly 

higher literary reading rates than those with high 

school education or less. The literary reading rates in 

all three ethnic and racial groups increase as family 

income increases. A close examination of the figures 

shows that the differences in literary reading between 

the higher and lower income groups are larger for 

Hispanic and African Americans than for white 

Americans. 

Education 

Both the literary reading rates and the statistical 

model of literary reading show that the most 

important factor is educational attainment. Figure 3 

shows that only 14 percent of those with grade school 

education read novels, short stories, poetry, or plays in 

2002. Those with a graduate school education are 

more than five times (74 percent) more likely to read 

literary works. In between these two extremes, literary 

reading increases consistently at every educational 

level, with literature participation rates for those with 

various levels of educational attainment. 

educated people are overrepresented among 

book readers. Data from the 2001 Consumer 

Research Study on Book Purchasing indicate 

that, while 27 percent of all adults have at least a 

college degree, 39 percent of books for adults are 

bought by those with at least a college degree.21 

Family Income 

The literary reading rate does not vary as strongly 

based on family income as it does for education, 

although literature participation does increase fairly 

steadily for each increase in family income (see the 

figures in Table 8). About one-third of the lowest 

income group (those with family income under 

$10,000) read literature during the survey year 

compared to 61 percent of the highest income group 

(those with family incomes of $75,000 or more). The 

statistical model shows that having a low family 

income (or not reporting the family income level) is 

associated with low literary reading rates. Those with 

low family incomes and those who did not report their 

income level are about 17 percent less likely to read 

literature as those in other income levels (after 

adjusting for other factors, such as the fact that those 

21 2001 Consumer Research Study on Book Purchasing, p. 35. 

National Endowment for the Arts 12 Reading at Risk 
0% 

10% 

20% 

30% 

40% 

50% 

National Average 

51.2% 46.7% 49.7% 

46.7% 

42.1% 

60% 

West Northeast Midwest South 

Americans 18 years of age or older 

Figure 4: Literary Reading Rates by Region, 2002 

Source: 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

data in Table 10 show that, of nine subregional groupings of states, literary 

reading is most common in the two subregions of the West (Mountain – 53 

percent and Pacific – 50 percent) and 

least common in the three sub-regions of 

the South (South Atlantic – 43 percent, 

West South Central – 41 percent, and 

East South Central – 41 percent). The 

sub-regions of the Northeast (New 

England and Mid-Atlantic – both 50 

percent) and the Midwest (West North 

Central – 50 percent and East North 

Central – 45 percent) rank in the middle 

of regional participation in literature.23 

In addition to these regional 

differences, the SPPA found several 

other differences. People who live in the 

suburbs are more likely to be readers 

with lower family incomes often have lower education 

levels). 

Higher income people are overrepresented among 

those who buy books. While 23 percent of people have 

household incomes of $75,000 or more, 33 percent of 

books are bought by those with household incomes in 

this range.22 

Geographic Areas 

Figure 4 shows that literary reading is most popular in 

the Western states (51 percent), followed by the 

Northeast (50 percent), Midwest (47 percent) and South 

(42 percent). (See Table 10 for a list of the states 

included in each of these regions.) After accounting for 

regional differences in education, income, etc., the 

statistical model shows that, compared with residents of 

the Northeast, residents of the West are 14 percent 

more likely to read literature, while residents of the 

Midwest and South are less likely to read literature (13 

percent and 20 percent less likely, respectively). 

Table 10 lays out the literary reading rates by 

region and in sub-regional groupings of states. The 

than either those who live in the city or 

the country. The literary reading rate for 

rural residents is 41 percent, compared with 47 percent 

for central-city dwellers and 49 percent for those who 

reside in the suburbs of metropolitan areas. 

Employment and Occupation 

Employed people are most likely to have read 

literature in 2002. Indeed, 49 percent of employed 

people did so, compared to 41 percent of those 

unemployed. Of those people who are not in the labor 

force (including retired and disabled Americans as 

well as those not looking for a job), some 43 percent 

read literary works in the survey year. People in 

managerial, professional, and technical occupations are 

more likely to read literature than those in other 

occupation groups. Table 11 shows a breakdown of 

literature participation in four broad occupation 

groups. 

Parents Education Level 

Survey respondents were also asked about their 

parents’ education levels. Table 12 shows that reading 

varies strongly based on parents’ education levels, 

22 lbid, p. 35.
 23 Because of the small number of survey respondents in some states, literary reading rates are not reported on a state-by-state basis.


National Endowment for the Arts 13 Reading at Risk 
Table 10 

Literary Reading by Region, U.S. Adults, 2002 

Region 

(% reading literature) 

West (51.2%) 

Northeast (49.7%) 

Midwest (46.7%) 

South (42.1%) 

Sub-region 

(% reading literature) 

Mountain (53.4%) 

Pacific (50.4%) 

New England (50.0%) 

Mid-Atlantic (49.7%) 

West North Central (49.9%) 

East North Central (45.5%) 

South Atlantic (43.3 %) 

West South Central (40.9%) 

East South Central (40.9%) 

States included in sub-region 

Arizona 

Colorado 

Idaho 

Montana 

Nevada 

New Mexico 

Utah 

Wyoming 

Alaska 

California 

Hawaii 

Oregon 

Washington 

Connecticut 

Maine 

Massachusetts 

New Hampshire 

Rhode Island 

Vermont 

New Jersey 

New York 

Pennsylvania 

Iowa 

Kansas 

Minnesota 

Missouri 

Nebraska 

North Dakota 

South Dakota 

Illinois 

Indiana 

Michigan 

Ohio 

Wisconsin 

Delaware 

District of Columbia 

Florida 

Georgia 

Maryland 

North Carolina 

South Carolina 

Virginia 

West Virginia 

Arkansas 

Louisiana 

Oklahoma 

Texas 

Alabama 

Kentucky 

Mississippi 

Tennessee 

Table 11 

Literary Reading by Occupation Group, U.S. Adults, 2002 

Occupation groups 

Managerial, professional, technical and support occupations 

Sales occupations 

Service occupations 

Production, craft, repair, operator occupations 

% reading literature 

58.8 

40.5 

39.9 

27.7 

% 

undoubtedly due to the fact that better educated 

parents are more likely to read to their children and 

encourage children to read when they are young.24 An 

earlier SPPA survey asked respondents about the 

encouragement to read that they received from their 

parents. A summary of the results from the 1982 

survey indicated that “the relationship between 

parental encouragement to read and adult literary 

reading was quite strong, stronger even than the 

relationship between the respondent’s education level 

and literary reading.”25 The statistical model of 

literary reading based on the 2002 SPPA survey shows 

that respondents whose mothers had attended college 

are nearly 50 percent more likely than others to read 

literature in 2002. 

Table 12 

Literary Reading by Parents' Education Levels, U.S. Adults, 2002 

Education levels of 

father or mother 

Grade school 

Some high school 

High school graduate 

Some college 

College graduate 

Graduate school 

Father’s education 

(% reading literature) 

37.0 

44.6 

49.2 

60.1 

63.1 

73.4 

Mother’s education 

(% reading literature) 

34.2 

43.6 

49.8 

63.4 

65.2 

76.0 

% % 

Impact of Television 

Does TV watching affect literary reading? This is a 

key question posed by many who feel that today’s 

frequent TV watchers may not read as much as 

previous generations have. The 2002 SPPA data show 

24 Statistics on the topic of parental involvement in reading can be found through the


National Household Education Survey. A summary is available on the National


Institute for Literacy’s website, www.nifl.gov.
 25 Nicholas Zill and Marianne Winglee, Who Reads Literature?, National Endowment


for the Arts Research Report #22, 1990. Questions about parental encouragement


were not asked in the 2002 SPPA.


National Endowment for the Arts 14 Reading at Risk 
that literary readers watch an average of 2.7 hours of 

TV per day, while people who do not read literary 

works watch an average of 3.1 hours of TV per day.

26 

Not surprisingly, a statistical model created to analyze 

frequent readers found that watching four hours or 

more of TV per day had a negative impact on the 

chances of someone reading 12 books or more per year. 

Watching no TV had a positive impact on the 

Table 13 

Average Number of Hours Per Day Watching TV, U.S. Adults, 2002 

All adults 

Did not read literature 

Read literature 

*Light book readers (1-5 books) 

*Moderate book readers (6-11 books) 

*Frequent book readers (12-49 books) 

*Avid book readers (50 books or more) 

Average Hours Per Day 

2.9 

3.1 

2.7 

2.8 

2.6 

2.4 

2.6 

*Note: Books can be of any type, literary and non-literary 

probability of someone reading 12 books or more. 

Overall, however, frequent readers watch only slightly 

less TV per day than infrequent readers. 

The SPPA results cannot show whether people who 

never read literary works would do so if they watched 

less TV, or whether they would use this extra time in 

other ways. A 2001 Gallup survey of 512 people 

showed that regular computer users spent 1.5 hours 

per day using the Internet and 1.1 hours reading 

books. However, those who did not regularly use a 

computer also spent 1.1 hours per day reading a 

book.27 

In some cases, TV watching may have a positive 

impact on literary reading. Authors regularly appear 

on TV to promote their books, and some TV book 

clubs have been extremely popular. In fact, in the 

spring of 2002, most book publishers were very 

disappointed when Oprah Winfrey cancelled the book 

club related to her talk show.

28 The effects of mass 

media, particularly television, movies, and the Internet, 

merit further scrutiny and research. 

Literacy 

Although 46.7 percent of the adult population read 

literature in 2002, a comparable percentage of adults 

may not have been capable of reading and 

understanding most novels, short stories, poetry, or 

plays. A 1995 report from the National Center for 

Education Statistics (NCES) shows that 45 percent of 

adults read at “prose literacy levels” one and two.29 

Rather than reporting a single illiteracy rate, NCES 

classifies adults into five levels of literacy. People 

scoring at levels one and two probably do not have the 

skills necessary to read many types of literature. 

Participation of Literary Readers in Other Cultural

and Leisure Activities 

Previous research into performing arts and art 

museum attendance has shown that attendance at one 

type of arts activity is strongly related to attendance at 

other types of activities.30 The 2002 SPPA data show 

that literary reading is also strongly related to 

participation in other arts activities. For example, 77 

percent of art museum visitors read literature in 2002, 

and 72 percent of people who attend performing arts 

events also read literary works. Those who participate 

in any of the arts are likely to participate in more than 

one form. Some people appear to be predisposed to 

partake in a wide range of arts activities, while others 

choose not to participate in any artistic activities at all. 

Arts participation, once begun, tends to become a 

habit. 

In the statistical model of literary reading, 

attendance at art museums and performing arts events 

is shown to be a significant factor in predicting literary 

26 These figures were calculated from responses to the question “Approximately how many hours of television do you watch on an average day?”
 27 Gallup Poll Tuesday Briefing, “Does reading still stack up?” September 3, 2002.
 28 Oprah’s book club has been reinstated with a focus on classic literary works rather than contemporary books. A recent selection, for example, is East of Eden by John Steinbeck.
 29 NCES Fast Facts, National Center for Education Statistics, at www.nces.ed.gov/fastfacts.
 30 See, for example, two reports by Hill Strategies, Performing Arts Attendance in Canada and the Provinces and Museum and Art Gallery Attendance in Canada, 2003, available from


www.hillstrategies.com. For more information about crossovers between disciplines, see 2002 www.hillstrategies.com. For more information about crossovers between disciplines, see


2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts, Report #45, National Endowment for the Arts, April 2004. Also see Timothy Fisher and Stephen Preece, “Evaluating Performing Arts


Audience Overlap” in International Journal of Arts Management, vol. 4, no. 3, Spring 2002.


National Endowment for the Arts 15 Reading at Risk 
reading, even controlling for education, ethnicity, race, 

and other factors. Respondents who attended both an 

art museum and a performing arts event are nearly six 

times as likely to read literature as those who 

participated in neither of these arts activities. Those 

who visited an art museum or attended a performing 

arts event are over twice as likely to read literature as 

those who participated in neither of these arts 

activities. 

Demographic Characteristics of Frequent Readers 

Of those who read any literary works in 2002, 17 

percent are classified as frequent readers (12 or more 

books in the survey year). Women are much more 

likely than men to be frequent readers: 22 percent of 

women, compared to 11 percent of men. Frequent 

readers among racial and ethnic groups break down 

into these percentages: 20 percent of white Americans, 

9 percent of African Americans, and 5 percent of 

Hispanic Americans. Those between 45 and 74 years 

of age tend to read the most books in a year. About 

one in five people in this age group is a frequent 

reader, compared to only one in ten people under 25. 

Frequent readers also tend to have high levels of 

education and family income. The West, Midwest 

and Northeast regions of the country have similar 

proportions of frequent readers (just under one in five 

residents of each of these regions), while the South has 

the lowest proportion of frequent readers (about one 

in seven residents). 

Art museum and performing arts attenders are 

much more likely than non-attenders to be frequent 

readers. In fact, 33 percent of art museum visitors 

(compared to 11 percent of non-visitors) read 12 or 

more books during the year. Similarly, 30 percent of 

performing arts attenders (compared to 10 percent of 

non-attenders) read 12 or more books in 2002. 

The regression model (see Appendix C) shows the 

demographic patterns of frequent book readers who 

reported reading literature. This model demonstrates 

that: 

•	 men are 37 percent less likely than women to be 

frequent readers (12 or more books of any kind per 

year); 

National Endowment for the Arts 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

• 

white Americans are 63 percent more likely than


people from other ethnic and racial groups to be


frequent readers;


those under 45 years of age are 36 percent less likely


to be frequent readers;


those with at least some college education are 28


percent more likely than those without any college


education to be frequent readers;


those respondents whose mothers had at least some


college education are 19 percent more likely to be


frequent readers than are those whose mothers had


no college education;


those who are not in the labor force are 17 percent


more likely than others to be frequent readers;


those who visit an art gallery and attend a


performing arts events in a year are more than 250


percent more likely to be frequent readers than


those who did only one or neither of these arts


activities;


those who did charity work are 26 percent more


likely to read 12 or more books per year than those


who did not;


those who did not watch TV in a typical day are 48


percent more likely to be frequent readers than are


those who watched one to three hours of TV per


day; and


those who watched four or more hours of TV in a


typical day are 12 percent less likely to be frequent


readers than are those who watched one to three


hours of TV per day.


Readers of Novels, Short Stories,

Poetry, and Plays 

The 2002 SPPA included questions regarding three 

types of literature: novels or short stories (a single 

question), poetry, and plays. Novels or short stories 

were by far the most popular types of literature, with 

45 percent of the survey respondents indicating that 

they had read novels or short stories in the survey year. 

In comparison, 12 percent read poetry and 4 percent 

read plays. 

Many demographic patterns are consistent among 

readers of the different types of literature examined in 

the SPPA. For all three types of literature: 

16 Reading at Risk 
• women read more than men; 

•	 white Americans are more likely than any 

other racial or ethnic group to read literature; 

•	reading varies slightly across age groups, with 

the exception of a drop for those 75 or older 

and a declining rate for 18-24 year olds; 

•	reading rates increase strongly with education 

levels, with college graduate rates more than 

50 percent higher than the overall reading 

rate for poetry or plays and more than onethird higher for novels or short stories; 

•	reading rates also increase with income levels, 

with people with family incomes under 

$40,000 reading at rates below the overall 

average, and those with family incomes of 

$40,000 or more exceeding average reading 

rates; 

•	 the West and Northeast regions of the 

country have the highest reading rates. 

There are some differences in the reading rates 

of different types of literature for non-white 

ethnic and racial groups. The gap between 

white Americans – the group with the highest 

reading rates for all types of literature – and 

African or Hispanic Americans varies between 

the different types of literature. For example, 

there is a large gap between the novel or short 

story reading rates of white Americans (50 

percent), African Americans (35 percent), and 

Hispanic Americans (25 percent.) In contrast, 

African Americans and white Americans have 

similar rates for poetry (12 percent and 13 

percent). Hispanic Americans are only 

somewhat less likely than white Americans to 

read plays (3.1 percent and 3.8 percent). 

Listening to Live or Recorded 

Readings of Novels or Poetry 

In addition to reading books, many people enjoy 

listening to literary readings, either in person or 

Table 14 

Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Adults That Read Novels or 

Short Stories, Poetry, or Plays in the 12-Month Period Ending August 2002 

Overall reading rate 

Sex 

Male 

Female 

Ethnicity and race 

Hispanic 

White 

African American 

Other 

Age 

18 – 24 

25 – 34 

35 – 44 

45 – 54 

55 – 64 

65 – 74 

75 or older 

Education 

Grade school 

Some high school 

High school graduate 

Some college 

College graduate 

Graduate school 

Family income 

$9,999 or less 

$10,000 to $19,999 

$20,000 to $29,999 

$30,000 to $39,999 

$40,000 to $49,999 

$50,000 to $74,999 

$75,000 or more 

Income not reported 

Region 

West 

Northeast 

Midwest 

South 

% reading novels or short stories 

45.1 

36.1 

53.4 

24.8 

50.0 

34.7 

42.3 

40.7 

45.8 

45.1 

50.2 

47.9 

43.8 

35.4 

13.4 

22.7 

36.5 

51.1 

60.7 

72.3 

29.6 

36.2 

36.2 

42.5 

46.4 

50.7 

59.4 

38.0 

49.5 

48.3 

45.5 

40.5 

% reading poetry 

12.1 

7.8 

16.0 

6.7 

13.1 

11.8 

9.8 

13.9 

10.9 

10.9 

14.2 

12.4 

11.9 

9.4 

2.5 

5.1 

6.8 

14.3 

18.0 

26.1 

10.0 

10.4 

9.2 

11.0 

12.7 

12.9 

16.0 

9.5 

15.4 

11.9 

10.8 

10.8 

% reading plays 

3.6 

3.0 

4.1 

3.1 

3.8 

2.8 

3.1 

5.9 

3.5 

3.4 

3.7 

2.5 

2.5 

3.2 

1.1 

1.5 

1.6 

3.9 

6.4 

8.2 

3.4 

3.1 

2.5 

2.8 

4.1 

3.8 

4.9 

2.8 

4.8 

3.9 

2.8 

3.2 

% % % 

National Endowment for the Arts 17 Reading at Risk 
through recordings. The 2002 SPPA asked 

respondents whether they listened to live or 

recorded readings of novels31 or poetry.

32 Just 

over 9 percent said that they listened to live or 

recorded readings of novels or other books, and 

about 6 percent indicated that they listened to 

poetry readings during the survey year. 

Table 15 provides a detailed demographic 

breakdown of those who listened to novels or 

poetry in 2002. Women are more likely than 

men to listen to novels or poetry. While white 

Americans are most likely to listen to book 

readings, African Americans are most likely to 

listen to poetry readings. This may be due, 

in part, to the popularity of dub and slam poetry 

readings in the U.S.33 Although readings of 

both novels and poetry are most commonly 

attended by those between 45 and 54, there is 

decidedly younger audience listening to poetry 

readings. The second-most likely age group to 

attend poetry readings is 18-24 year olds, while 

55-64 year olds are most likely to listen to a 

reading of a novel or other literary work. 

There is a strong connection between 

education and listening to both novels and 

poetry; college graduates are more than 50 

percent more likely than the average person to 

listen to novels or poetry. The rates of listening 

to novel or poetry readings also increase with 

income. As was the case with literary reading, 

the West has the highest rates of listening to 

novels or poetry of all regions of the country. 

Personal Creative Writing 

The third major set of questions dealt with 

personal creative writing,34 and about one in 14 

people (7 percent) said that they wrote creative 

works during the survey year. As is the case 

with all facets of literary reading and writing, 

31 “Did you listen to a reading of novels or books, either live or recorded 

during the last 12 months?” 

32 “Did you listen to a reading of poetry, either live or recorded during 

the last 12 months?” 

33 Dub poetry is an oral presentation of poetic works usually combined 

with music (often drumming). 

34 “With the exception of work or school, did you do any creative writing 

such as stories, poems or plays during the last 12 months?” 

Table 15 

Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Adults Listening to Live or 

Recorded Readings of Novels or Poetry, 2002 

Overall rate 

Sex 

Male 

Female 

Ethnicity and race 

Hispanic 

White 

African American 

Other 

Age 

18 – 24 

25 – 34 

35 – 44 

45 – 54 

55 – 64 

65 – 74 

75 or older 

Education 

Grade school 

Some high school 

High school graduate 

Some college 

College graduate 

Graduate school 

Family income 

$9,999 or less 

$10,000 to $19,999 

$20,000 to $29,999 

$30,000 to $39,999 

$40,000 to $49,999 

$50,000 to $74,999 

$75,000 or more 

Income not reported 

Region 

West 

Northeast 

Midwest 

South 

% listening to novels or other books 

9.3 

7.9 

10.6 

5.6 

10.3 

7.4 

6.6 

5.6 

7.7 

10.5 

12.1 

10.9 

9.3 

6.2 

2.6 

3.6 

5.4 

9.7 

15.3 

20.9 

6.1 

4.9 

5.9 

8.5 

8.3 

11.8 

14.0 

7.7 

11.7 

8.8 

9.7 

7.8 

% listening to poetry 

5.9 

4.8 

6.8 

3.4 

5.9 

8.6 

5.1 

6.2 

5.8 

5.8 

7.1 

5.9 

4.8 

3.8 

1.3 

2.9 

2.8 

7.3 

9.1 

12.4 

4.6 

4.5 

4.7 

6.4 

6.7 

6.1 

7.2 

4.9 

7.3 

6.6 

5.6 

4.7 

% % 

National Endowment for the Arts 18 Reading at Risk 
Table 16 

Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Adults 

Doing Creative Writing, 2002 

Overall rate 

Sex 

Male 

Female 

Ethnicity and race 

Hispanic 

White 

African American 

Other 

Age 

18 – 24 

25 – 34 

35 – 44 

45 – 54 

55 – 64 

65 – 74 

75 or older 

Education 

Grade school 

Some high school 

High school graduate 

Some college 

College graduate 

Graduate school 

Family income 

$9,999 or less 

$10,000 to $19,999 

$20,000 to $29,999 

$30,000 to $39,999 

$40,000 to $49,999 

$50,000 to $74,999 

$75,000 or more 

Income not reported 

Region 

West 

Northeast 

Midwest 

South 

% doing creative writing 

7.0 

5.8 

8.2 

4.0 

7.6 

7.4 

5.3 

12.7 

7.9 

6.7 

6.8 

5.0 

4.1 

3.7 

1.0 

2.8 

4.1 

9.1 

10.6 

12.7 

7.8 

5.5 

5.6 

7.6 

7.4 

7.0 

8.5 

5.9 

8.3 

7.3 

7.5 

5.9 

% 

women are more likely than men to pursue creative 

writing. Similarly, creative writing is most popular 

among those with high education levels and among 

residents of the western region of the country. 

However, an analysis of creative writers shows 

some differences between the demographic 

characteristics of creative writers and literary readers 

(see Table 16). Interestingly, creative writing does not 

increase consistently by income levels. Low- and 

middle-income people are about as likely to write 

creative works as those with high incomes. Other 

comparisons of the data show that African Americans 

are as likely as white Americans to do creative 

writing. In addition, creative writing is most common 

among those under 25. 

Summary of Factors in Literature 

Participation 

With nearly one-half of Americans participating, 

literary reading is clearly one of the nation’s favorite 

pastimes. But the pleasures of reading literature are 

not shared by all. Educational attainment is the most 

important factor in literature participation. Highly 

educated people read literature much more than those 

with lower levels of education. This chapter has also 

shown that reading and listening to literature are 

consistently higher for women, urban residents, and, 

generally, those with higher family incomes. White 

Americans have the highest participation rates of any 

ethnic or racial group in almost all literature-related 

activities, except for the high participation rate of 

African Americans listening to poetry and doing 

creative writing. Literature participation is fairly 

consistent between those in different age ranges, with 

the exception of the youngest and oldest people. 

Literary activities are most popular in the West, 

followed by the Northeast, Midwest, and South. 

It is not clear from the SPPA data how much 

influence TV watching has on literary reading. People 

who read literary works, even frequent book readers, 

watch slightly less TV each day than those who do not 

read at all. A statistical model created to analyze 

National Endowment for the Arts 19 Reading at Risk 
frequent book readers found that watching four hours 

or more of TV per day had a negative impact on the 

chances of someone reading 12 books or more per 

year, while watching no TV had a positive impact on 

the probability of someone reading 12 books or more. 

The SPPA results cannot show whether people would 

read more if they watched less TV, or whether they 

would use this extra time in other ways. 

The 2002 SPPA data show that one of the most 

important factors in literary reading is participation in 

other arts activities. Art museum and performing arts 

attendance are significant factors in literature 

participation, even adjusting for education, ethnicity, 

race and other factors. The book industry might target 

arts participants in their marketing in the future. 

National Endowment for the Arts 20 Reading at Risk 
Chapter 4: Trends in Literature Participation, 1982-2002


O ver the past 20 years, the U.S. has experienced 

significant demographic change. The 

population has grown considerably since 1982 

and is becoming increasingly racially and ethnically 

diverse. Recent waves of immigration have come from 

a wide range of countries. The Census Bureau noted 

in a recent report that “the minority population grew 

11 times more rapidly as the white non-Hispanic 

population between 1980 and 2000.”35 The changing 

demographics of the United States ensure continued 

change in literary and artistic circles and in public 

participation in literature and the arts. 

Myriad other social and economic transformations 

have also taken place since 1982. For example, 

technological change has increased in intensity over 

the past 20 years. In 1982, personal computers were a 

relatively new phenomenon, and the Internet was a 

small network. Now, computers and the Internet are 

readily available in many homes and in most 

workplaces. Videogames have also proliferated since 

the early 1980s, a time when Atari sets were fairly 

new. These changes, along with the growth in 

network, cable, and satellite television and the advent 

of video rentals, have had a significant impact on 

people’s time use over the past 20 years. As early as the 

1980s, fears were expressed that the U.S. was 

becoming a “nation of watchers” rather than a “nation 

of readers.”36 In the late 1990s, the Center for the 

Book in the Library of Congress chose “Building a 

Nation of Readers” as its National Reading Promotion 

Campaign theme. By the time of the 2002 SPPA, 

public participation in literature faced very real 

challenges born out by the Survey’s findings. 

This chapter examines changes in literary reading 

in the 1982, 1992, and 2002 Surveys of Public 

Participation in the Arts, and relates these changes to 

literary, social, and cultural trends in American 

society. Results from statistical tests (chi square) are 

also presented in this chapter in order to examine 

whether the changes in literary reading between 1982, 

1992, and 2002 are statistically significant.37 

Changes in Literature Participation 

Literary reading in America has not grown since 1982. 

In fact, it is the strong growth in the population that 

has allowed the overall number of people reading 

literature to remain stable at about 96 million between 

1982 and 2002.38 Along with these figures, Table 17 

shows that there has been a substantial decrease in the 

percentage of people reading literature, from 57 

percent in 1982 to 47 percent in 2002, a decline of 10 

percentage points. 

Table 17 

Literary Reading, U.S. Adults, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

Number reading literature (in millions) 

American population 18 or older (in millions) 

% reading literature 

1982 

95.6 

168.0 

56.9 

1992 

100.3 

185.8 

54.0

2002 

96.2 

205.9 

46.7

Change 1982 to 2002 

% % 

0.6 

37.9 

% –10.2 

Changes in Poetry Reading and Listening 

During the 1990s, the growth in popularity of live 

readings, poetry slams, and other forms led some to 

speculate about a revitalization of poetry in 

America.39 If such revitalization is occurring, it is 

not apparent in the figures from the 1982, 1992, and 

2002 Surveys of Public Participation in the Arts. A 

comparison of the poetry readers and listeners in 

these years (see Table 18) shows that, despite 

significant population growth, the number of people 

reading poetry or listening to a poetry reading 

decreased from about 34 million in 1982 to just under 

30 million in 2002. This amounts to a loss of more 

35 Demographic Trends in the 20th Century, Census 2000 Special Report issued November 2002.
 36 See, for example, President Reagan’s Radio Address on Education, September 8, 1984, available at http://www.reagan.utexas.edu/resource/speeches/1984/90884a.htm.
 37 The chi-square statistic can be used to test whether the literary reading rates of Americans in various groups (e.g., men, women, Hispanic Americans, white Americans, etc.) are


independent of the year the sampling was done. Within each group, a statistically significant chi-square statistic would indicate that the literary reading rates were significantly


different between the years tested.


38 In 1982, only one question was asked regarding literary reading: “During the last 12 months, did you read novels, short stories, poetry or plays?” In 1992 and 2002, three separate


questions were asked: “During the last 12 months, did you read any plays?”; “During the last 12 months, did you read any poetry?”; and “During the last 12 months, did you read any


novels or short stories?” Respondents who said “yes” to any of these three questions in 1992 or 2002 are included in Table 17. In all three years, a statistically representative sample of


Americans was surveyed. In 1982 and 2002, there were about 17,000 survey respondents, compared to about 13,000 in 1992.
It should be noted that the estimate of 96 million literary 

readers differs from the 93.3 million estimate that appears on page 2, Table 1, of Research Report #45, 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts, because it is based on the revised

estimate of the 1982 adult population, 168 million, and not the 164 million originally provided by the Census Bureau. 

39 See, for example, “10 Years After, Poetry Still Matters” in The Chronicle of Higher Education, September 27, 2002.


National Endowment for the Arts 21 Reading at Risk 
than 4 million people, or 13 percent of the 1982 

audience for poetry.

40 The percentage of people 

reading poetry or listening to poetry decreased 

substantially, from about 20 percent of adults in 1982 

and 1992 to 14 percent in 2002. 

Table 18 

Reading or Listening to Poetry, U.S. Adults, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

Number reading or listening to poetry (in millions) 

% reading or listening to poetry 

1982 

33.8 

19.8 

1992 

38 

20.5 

2002 

29.5 

14.3 

Change 1982 to 2002 

% % 

-4.3 

% -5.5

Changes in Creative Writing Classes or Lessons 

Table 20 shows that the number of people who 

indicated that they had ever taken a creative writing 

class or lesson decreased from 30 million in 1982 to 27 

million in 2002.42 The percentage of 

people taking creative writing classes or 

lessons at some point in their lives also 

decreased, from 18 percent of adults in 

1982 to 13 percent in 2002. 

Changes in Personal Creative Writing 

Contrary to the overall decline in literary 

reading, the number of people doing 

creative writing – of any genre, not 

exclusively literary works – increased 

substantially between 1982 and 2002. In 

1982, about 11 million people did some 

Table 20 

Creative Writing Classes or Lessons, U.S. Adults, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

Number ever taking creative writing classes 

or lessons (in millions) 

% ever taking creative writing classes or lessons 

1982 

29.5 

18.0% 

1992 

29 

15.6% 

1982 to 2002 

Change 

2002 

27.3 

13.3% 

-2.2 

-4.7 

form of creative writing. By 2002, this


number had risen to almost 15 million


people (18 or older), an increase of about 30 percent.41


The percentage of people doing creative writing 

increased by a much smaller amount, from just fewer 

than 7 percent of adults in 1982 to just greater than 7 

percent in 2002. Table 19 shows the trends in creative 

writing activity. 

Table 19 

Creative Writing, U.S. Adults, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

Number doing creative writing (in millions) 

% doing creative writing 

1982 

11.5 

7.0 

1992 

13.7 

7.4 

2002 

14.4 

7.1 

Change 1982 to 2002 * 

2.9 

0.1 

* The amounts in the change column are calculated from non-rounded figures.

% % 

 Because of rounding,

% 

 the amounts in this column 

may not equal the difference between the figures in the other columns. 

Factors in the Changes in Literature Participation 

Due to higher overall levels of education in America 

over the past 20 years and the correlation between 

literature participation and education, one might 

think that there would have been an increase in the 

popularity of literature since 1982. However, an 

analysis of the demographic 

characteristics of literary readers in 1982, 

1992, and 2002 shows a widespread 

decline in the literary reading rates of 

people from a range of demographic 

backgrounds. In fact, literary reading 

rates decreased for men, women, all 

ethnic and racial groups, all education 

groups, and all age groups. 

40 In 1982, only one question was asked regarding poetry reading and listening: “During the last 12 months, did you read, or listen to a reading of, poetry?” In 2002, two separate 

questions were asked: “During the last 12 months, did you read any poetry?” and “During the last 12 months, did you listen to a reading of poetry, either live or recorded?” 

Respondents who said “yes” to either of these questions in 2002 are included in Table 18. 41 The creative writing question asked did not vary much between 1982 and 2002. In 1982, the wording was: “During the last 12 months, did you work on any creative writings such as 

stories, poems, plays and the like? Exclude any writing done as part of a course requirement.” In 1992 and 2002, the wording was: “With the exception of work or school, did you do 

any creative writing such as stories, poems or plays during the last 12 months?” 

42 The question regarding creative writing lessons or classes did not change between 1982 and 2002. In all three years, the wording was: “Have you ever taken lessons or classes in 

creative writing?” 

National Endowment for the Arts 22 Literature Participation in America 
The results of the statistical test (chi square) confirm 

the significance of the widespread decline in literary 

reading. The statistical test shows that, between 1982 

and 2002, there were statistically significant decreases 

in literary reading for the following demographic 

groups: 

• men and women; 

• Hispanic Americans, white Americans, African 

Americans and other ethnic groups; 

• people in all categories of educational attainment; 

and 

• the three age groups under 45 (18-24, 25-34, and 35-

44). 

There are some differences in the rates of decline 

among different demographic groups. For example, 

the decrease in literary reading was more pronounced 

among men than among women. Figure 5 illustrates a 

decrease in the male literary reading rate from 49 

percent to 37 percent, a drop of 12 percentage points.43 

In contrast, the female literary reading rate decreased 

from 63 percent to 55 percent, a drop of 8 percentage 

points. Figure 5 also illustrates the overall decline in 

literary reading, from 56 percent in 1982 to 47 percent 

in 2002. 

Gender 

The gap in the literary reading rates between women 

and men increased between 1982 and 2002. In 1982, 

the literary reading rate among women (63 percent) 

Table 21 

Literary Reading by Gender, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

(Millions of U.S. Adults) 

Men 

Women 

1982 

39.5 

56.8 

1992 

42.2 

58.5 

2002 

36.9 

59.1 

Change 

-2.6 

2.3 

% change 

-6.6% 

4.0% 

was 14 percentage points higher than the 

rate among men (49 percent). The 

difference increased to 17 percentage 

points in 2002, with 55 percent of 

women and 38 percent of men reading 

literature. Changes in the number of 

Overall Men Women 

1982 1992 2002 

Americans 18 years of age or older 

Figure 5: Literary Reading Rates by Gender, 1982 , 1992, and 2002 

Source: 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

0% 

10% 

20% 

30% 

40% 

50% 

60% 

70% 

80% 

54.2% 56.4% 

46.7% 49.1% 47.4% 

37.6% 

60.3% 

63.0% 

55.1% 

people reading literature depend on two 

main factors: changes in the literary 

reading rate and changes in population. 

Because of the overall 21 percent 

increase in the population (18 years of 

age and older), the trends in the number 

of people reading literature were not as 

strongly downward as the changes in the 

literary reading rates. 

Different demographic groups saw 

varying rates of population growth and 

differing changes in literary reading 

rates between 1982 and 2002. 

Consequently, changes in the number of 

people reading literature varied between 

demographic groups. Table 21 shows 

43 This drop in percentage points should not be confused with the “percentage decrease.” The drop in percentage points is simply the difference between the literary reading rates in 

1982 and 2002. The percentage change relates the difference in rates to the initial reading rate. The percentage change in the proportion of men reading literature was 24 percent 

between 1982 and 2002, while the percentage change was 13 percent for women. 

National Endowment for the Arts 23 Reading at Risk 
that the number of male literary readers decreased 

slightly, from 39 million in 1982 to 37 million in 2002. 

The number of American women reading literature 

Among all four ethnic and racial groups examined, the 

literary reading rate decreased most strongly among 

reading rate of Hispanic Americans was the lowest of 

percent of white Americans and 36 percent of Hispanic 

Americans read literature, for a difference of about 23 

percentage points. In 2002, the difference was 25 

percentage points. 

The gap between the literary reading rates of 

white and African Americans decreased slightly, from 

17 percentage points in 1982 to 14 percentage points in 

2002. 

white Americans and people from other ethnic groups 

also decreased slightly between 1982 and 2002. In 1982, 

the gap was nearly 10 percentage points; in 2002, the 

Table 22 

Literary Reading by Ethnicity and Race, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

(Millions of U.S. Adults) 

Hispanic 

White 

African American 

Other 

1982 

3.4 

83.3 

7.6 

2 

1992 

5.2 

83.5 

9.5 

2.4 

2002 

6 

77 

8.8 

4.1 

Change 

2.6 

-6.2 

1.2 

2.2 

% change 

74.7 

-7.5 

15.4 

111.5 

% 

The gap between the literary reading rates of 

increased slightly, from 57 million to 59 million 

between 1982 and 2002. 

Race and Ethnicity 

Hispanic Americans. At 36 percent, the literary 

all ethnic and racial groups in 1982. This rate 

decreased by 10 percentage points to 26 percent 

in 2002. Figure 6 shows that there were 

significant, but lower, rates of decline in literary 

reading among white Americans (-8.4 points), 

African Americans (-5.2), and people of Other 

ethnic and racial origins (-6.5). 

The gap between the literary reading rates 

of white and Hispanic Americans increased 

slightly between 1982 and 2002. In 1982, 60 

Hispanic White African American Other 

1982 1992 2002 

Americans 18 years of age or older 

Figure 6: Literary Reading Rates by Ethnicity And Race, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

Source: 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

0% 

10% 

20% 

30% 

40% 

50% 

60% 

36.4% 

34.0% 

26.5% 

59.8% 

58.0% 

51.4% 

42.3% 

45.6% 

37.1% 

50.2% 

42.7% 

43.7% 

gap was 6.5 percentage points. 

At the same time as the literary 

reading rate decreased very strongly 

among Hispanic Americans, there was 

also a sharp increase in the Hispanic 

American population. Given this 

population increase, the number of 

Hispanic Americans reading literature 

increased by nearly 3 million between 

1982 and 2002. This increase, which 

amounts to nearly 75 percent of the 

number of Hispanic American literary 

readers in 1982, is the largest increase 

in the number of readers from any 

ethnic or racial group. 

There was also significant growth 

in the African American population 

and in the population from other 

ethnic groups. Because of these 

important demographic shifts, the 

number of readers from African 

National Endowment for the Arts 24 Reading at Risk 
American and other backgrounds increased between


1982 and 2002. In contrast, the number of white


Americans reading literature fell by more than 6


million between 1982 and 2002. In summary, because


of the changing demographics of the U.S., there was


an increase in the number of literary readers from


all ethnic and racial groups except white


Americans.


These changes in the number of literary 

readers are highlighted in Table 22. White 

decreased significantly for people with all levels of 

educational attainment. In fact, the literary reading 

rate decreased by 15 percentage points or more for 

those in all except the lowest education group (grade 

school only). 

Table 23 

Literary Reading by Education, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

(Millions of U.S. Adults) 

Grade school 

Some high school 

High school graduate 

Some college 

College graduate / Graduate school 

1982 

4.2 

9.9 

33.1 

26.1 

23.5 

1992 

2.4 

7.6 

32.6 

27.2 

31.1 

2002 

1.6 

4.7 

24 

30 

35.6 

Change 

-2.5 

-5.2 

-9.1 

4 

12.2 

% change 

-60.9 

-52.6 

-27.5 

15.2 

52.0 

Americans represented 80 percent of literary %

readers in 2002, down from 87 percent in 1982. 

African Americans constituted 9 percent of literary 

readers in 2002, a slight increase from 8 percent in 

1982. Hispanic Americans comprised 6 percent of 

literary readers in 2002, up from 4 percent in 1982. 

Finally, Americans from other ethnic and racial groups 

represented 4 percent of literary readers in 2002, an 

increase from 2 percent in 1982. 

Education 

Figure 7 illustrates that the literary reading rate 

The gap between the literary reading rates of 

college graduates and high school graduates remained 

large but stable between 1982 and 2002. In 1982, the 

difference between the reading rates of college 

graduates (82 percent) and high school graduates (54 

percent) was about 28 percentage points. By 2002, after 

a significant drop in the literary reading rates of both 

groups, the gap was 29 percentage 

points. 

Despite the sharp decreases in literary 

reading at all education levels, rising 

0% 

20% 

40% 

60% 

80% 

100% 

Grade School Some 

High School High SchoolGraduate 

Some 

College College Graduate/Graduate School 

1982 1992 2002 

Americans 18 years of age or older 

Figure 7: Literary Reading Rates by Education, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

Source: 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 21.2% 17.3% 14.0% 38.8% 34.5% 23.4% 54.2% 49.0% 37.7% 

72.9% 

65.0% 

52.9% 

82.1% 

74.6% 

66.7% 

levels of education in American society 

led to an increase in the number of 

literary readers who had some college 

education or a college degree. Table 23 

shows that the number of readers with 

a college degree or graduate education 

increased by about 12 million. The 

number of literary readers with some 

college education increased by about 4 

million. There were decreases in the 

number of literary readers at the three 

other education levels. In particular, the 

number of literary readers with a high 

school education decreased by 9 million. 

National Endowment for the Arts 25 Reading at Risk 
Age Groups 

Although literary reading rates decreased between 

1982 and 2002, the only statistically significant 

decrease was for those 18 to 44 years of age. While all 

three age groups under age 45 dropped in percentage, 

for those adults 18 to 24 years of age, the literary 

reading rate decreased from nearly 60 percent in 1982 

to 43 percent in 2002 – a drop of 17 percentage points. 

Young adults are reading much less than they 

used to. Making literary reading appeal to teenagers 

also appears to be a significant problem. Long-term 

reading assessments, summarized by the National 

Institute for Literacy, show that: 

• a smaller percentage of 13- and 17-year-olds read for 

fun daily in 1999 than in 1984; 

• a smaller percentage of 17-year-olds saw adults 

reading in their homes in 1999 than in 1984; and 

• a greater percentage of 17–year-olds were watching 

three or more hours of television each day in 1999 

than in 1978.44 

For those in the 25 to 34 age 

group, literary reading decreased 

by more than 14 percentage 

points, from 62 percent in 1982 to 

47 percent in 2002. The literary 

reading rate among those 35 to 44 

years of age decreased by 13 

literary reading rate of people under 45 did not rank 

as highly among the seven age groups. In 2002, the 18 

to 24 age group had a literary reading rate (43 percent) 

that placed it sixth among the seven age groups. The 

48 percent literary reading rate of those between 25 

and 34 ranked third among all age groups, while the 

47 percent rate for people between 35 and 44 ranked 

fourth. People between 45 and 54 had the highest 

literary reading rate in 2002 (52 percent). For people 

between 55 and 64, the literary reading rate of 49 

percent placed this group second among the seven age 

groups. The literary reading rates of those between 65 

and 74 (45 percent) and people 75 and older (37 

percent) ranked these groups fifth and seventh 

respectively. 

In 1982, reading literature peaked between ages 18 

and 34, gradually falling off as readers aged. In 2002, 

fewer younger people are reading literature; the peak 

age group is 45-54, with sloping off rates at both ends 

of the spectrum. 

Population growth and aging led to increases in 

the number of people reading literature in all age 

percentage points, from 60 percent 

in 1982 to 47 percent in 2002. 

A close examination of Figure 

8 also reveals a shift in the 

popularity of literary reading 

between 1982 and 2002, especially 

among the younger age groups. In 

1982, the 25 to 34 age group had 

the highest literary reading rate 

(62 percent), followed by the 18 to 

24 and the 35 to 44 age groups 

(each 60 percent). In 2002, the 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 and older 

1982 1992 2002 

Americans 18 years of age or older 

Figure 8: Literary Reading Rates by Age, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

Source: 2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

0% 

10% 

20% 

30% 

40% 

50% 

60% 

70% 

80% 

59.8% 

53.3% 

42.8% 

62.1% 

54.6% 

47.7% 

59.7% 

58.9% 

46.6% 

54.9% 

56.9% 

51.6% 

52.8% 

52.9% 

48.9% 

47.2% 

50.8% 

45.3% 

40.9% 

40.4% 

36.7% 

44 See the National Institute for Literacy’s online Reading Facts available at www.nifl.gov. 

National Endowment for the Arts 26 Reading at Risk 
groups 35 or older. The increase in the number of 

literary readers was largest for those between the ages 

of 45 and 54 (this age group encompasses the largest 

share of the baby boomer cohort). There were more 

than 7 million more literary readers in this age 

category in 2002 than in 1982. This is about double the 

increase in the number of literary readers between the 

ages of 35 and 44. For those 55 and older, the increase 

in the number of literary readers was fairly small. 

There were significant decreases in the number of 

literary readers in the 18 to 24 and 25 to 34 age groups. 

Not only have the percentages fallen for young adults, 

but the actual numbers of young readers have fallen, 

despite overall population grown. See Table 24 for 

full details. 

An important question about literary reading 

concerns trends in age cohorts over time. This section 

compares the literary reading rates by age in 1982 with 

the age groups to which those people would belong in 

2002. As an example, the literary reading rate of 25 to 

34 year olds in 1982 was 62 percent. In 2002, this 

group of people would have been between 45 and 54. 

The literary reading rate of this group in 2002 was 

under 52 percent, a decrease of more than 10 

percentage points. Table 25 shows that there has been 

a substantial decrease in literary reading between 1982 

and 2002 for every age cohort. In fact, all of the age 

cohorts have seen decreases of about 10 percentage 

points or more since 1982. 

Other Leisure Activities 

A comparison of the 1982, 1992, and 2002 Surveys of 

Public Participation in the Arts shows that time spent 

watching TV has remained stable for those 18 and 

older. In 1982 and 1992, the average amount of TV 

watched per day was 3.0 hours. This decreased slightly 

to 2.9 hours per day in 2002. These figures suggest 

that TV watching may not be an important factor in 

the overall decrease in literary reading. 

Movies are a popular leisure activity in the United 

States, but the percentage of people going to at least 

one movie in a year decreased slightly over the past 20 

years, from 63 percent in 1982 to 60 percent in 2002. 

Although this seems to show that literary reading is 

not being replaced by moviegoing, it should be noted 

that it is possible that those who went to the movies in 

2002 may have gone to more movies per year (than 

moviegoers in 1982), leaving them with less time to 

read literature. 

Watching movies at home is also very popular, 

with many people setting up full “home theaters” to 

watch movies acquired through satellite or cable 

connections or the rental of videotape and digital 

video disks. In 1982, videocassette recorders were just 

starting to achieve widespread home popularity. 

Between 1985 and 2000, annual consumer spending on 

television, radios, and sound equipment increased by 

68 percent, from $371 per household in 1985 to $622 in 

2000. In comparison, annual spending on reading 

increased by only 4 percent, from $141 per household 

in 1985 to $146 in 2000.45 

Table 24 

Literary Reading by Age, 1982, 1992, and 2002 

(Millions of U.S. Adults) 

18 to 24 

25 to 34 

35 to 44 

45 to 54 

55 to 64 

65 to 74 

75 and older 

1982 

17.8 

24.9 

17 

12.7 

12 

7.8 

4.1 

1992 

12.9 

23.1 

23.4 

15.8 

11.3 

9.3 

5 

2002 

11.4 

17.6 

20.5 

20.1 

12.6 

8 

5.7 

Change 

-6.3 

-7.3 

3.5 

7.4 

0.6 

0.2 

1.6 

% change 

-35.7 

-29.2 

20.7 

58.4 

5.0 

2.5 

39.3 

% 

Table 25 

Literary Reading by Age Cohort, 1982 and 2002 

(Millions of U.S. Adults) 

18 - 24 in 1982 / 35 - 44 in 2002 

25 - 34 in 1982 / 45 - 54 in 2002 

35 - 44 in 1982 / 55 - 64 in 2002 

45 - 54 in 1982 / 65 - 74 in 2002 

55 - 64 in 1982 / 75 and older in 2002 

1982 

59.8 

62.1 

59.7 

54.9 

52.8 

2002 

46.6 

51.6 

48.9 

45.3 

36.7 

-13.2 

-10.5 

-10.8 

-9.6 

-16.1 

% 

Change 

% 

45 U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2002, Table 1212, p. 748. 

National Endowment for the Arts 27 Reading at Risk 
Summary of Trends in Literature 

Participation 

The statistics presented in this chapter clearly 

demonstrate that there has been a widespread decline 

in literary reading over the past 20 years. There were 

significant decreases in the literary reading rates of 

Americans from a wide range of demographic groups, 

including: 

• men and women; 

• people from all ethnic and racial groups; 

• people with all levels of educational attainment; and 

• those under age 45. 

Poetry suffered between 1982 and 2002 with fewer 

people reading poetry or listening to live poetry 

readings or recordings. Creative writing is one of the 

few literary activities in which a higher percentage of 

people participated in 2002 than in 1982. 

Although nearly half of Americans read literature 

in 2002, literary participation is clearly less popular 

than it used to be, possibly due to competition for 

entertainment time and money from a range of other 

options, including videogames, movies, and the 

Internet. Consumer spending data show a significant 

increase in spending on television, radios, and sound 

equipment between 1985 and 2000. Because of the 

overall increase in the population between 1982 and 

2002, the trends in the number of people reading 

literature were not as strongly downward as the 

changes in the literary reading rates. 

For all who are interested in reading habits in 

America – from the book industry, literacy 

organizations, and arts funders to governments and 

businesses that depend on a well-educated, literate 

workforce – the trends presented in this chapter point 

to the importance of attracting and exciting readers 

from a broad range of demographic groups. 

National Endowment for the Arts 28 Reading at Risk 
Chapter 5: Summary and Conclusions


I n a recent essay, “What use is literature?,” 

Myron Magnet stated that “data are 

meaningless until we can articulate a story that 

makes sense out of them, and literature makes sense 

out of the data of human experience.”46 

Who Reads Literature? 

Data from the 2002 Survey of Public Participation in 

the Arts (SPPA) demonstrate that many people enjoy 

literature. Novels, short stories, poetry, and plays 

attract almost one-half of those 18 or older (47 percent 

or about 96 million people). Each part of the literary 

puzzle examined in this monograph – novels, short 

stories, poetry, and plays – attracts a significant 

number of people. Poetry (read by 25 million adults) is 

about as popular as attendance at jazz performances 

or at classical music events. About as many people 

read plays (7 million) as attend live opera or ballet. 

Novels and short stories have an audience (93 million) 

that is larger than almost any other cultural or leisure 

pursuit. A number of people have a particularly 

strong attachment to books; about one in six literary 

readers (17 percent) read 12 or more books in 2002. 

Americans participate in literature in a variety of 

other ways. Almost one in ten (9 percent) listened to 

live or recorded readings of novels or books, and 6 

percent listened to poetry readings during the survey 

year. About 7 percent wrote creative works of their 

own, and 9 percent used the Internet to learn about, 

read, or discuss topics related to literature. Most 

literary readers are active in a wide range of other 

cultural and leisure pursuits. 

Factors in Literature Participation 

Those with high levels of education are much more 

likely to read literature than those with lower levels of 

educational attainment. Reading and listening to 

literature are consistently higher for women, urban 

residents, and, generally, people with higher family 

incomes. Non-Hispanic white Americans have the 

highest participation rates of any ethnic or racial 

group in almost all literature-related activities. One 

exception to this is the high participation rate of nonHispanic African Americans listening to poetry. 

The pleasure of literature participation appears to 

be shared fairly equally among those in different age 

ranges, although the youngest and oldest age groups 

have the lowest participation rates. 

Literary activities are most popular in the West, 

followed by the Northeast, Midwest and South. 

It is not clear from the SPPA data how much 

influence TV watching has on literary reading. Not 

surprisingly, a statistical model created to analyze 

frequent readers found that watching four hours or 

more of TV per day had a negative impact on the 

chances of someone reading 12 books or more per 

year.

47 Watching no TV had a positive impact on the 

probability of someone reading 12 books or more. 

Literary readers watch slightly less TV each day than 

non-readers, and frequent readers watch only slightly 

less TV per day than infrequent readers. The SPPA 

results cannot show whether non-readers would read 

more if they watched less TV, or whether they would 

use this extra time in other ways. 

Literacy rates and levels (see Literacy on page 15) 

have a significant impact on literature participation. 

More research into the leisure time habits of welleducated non-readers would be required in order to 

determine ways of raising literacy in the U.S., 

although it is evident that people have more arts and 

entertainment options competing for their leisure time 

than ever before. 

Participation in Other Arts Activities 

The 2002 SPPA data show that one of the most 

important factors in literary reading is participation in 

other arts activities. Art museum and performing arts 

attendance are significant indicators for literature 

participation, even adjusting for education, ethnicity, 

race, and other factors. 

46 In City Journal, Summer 2003, www.city-journal.org. 47 The details of the statistical models created for this report are included in Appendix C. 

National Endowment for the Arts 29 Reading at Risk 
Trends in Literature Participation 

The percentage of U.S. adults reading literature 

dropped from 56.4 percent in 1982 to 46.7 percent in 

2002 – a decline of almost 10 percentage points. This 

may indicate a downward trend over the past two 

decades, but it is important to note that the SPPA is 

not conducted on a yearly basis. This monograph 

looks at the surveys held in 1982, 1992, and 2002 – tenyear snapshots. No information is available for nonSPPA years, and it is possible that the 2002 drop is a 

short, one-year change. 

If the 2002 data represent a declining trend, it is 

tempting to suggest that fewer people are reading 

literature and now prefer visual and audio 

entertainment. Again, the data – both from SPPA 

and other sources – do not readily quantify this 

explanation. 

As discussed in Chapter 3, television does not 

seem to be the culprit. In 2002, those who do read and 

those who do not read literature watched about the 

same amount of TV per day – three hours’ worth. 

The Internet, however, could have played a role. 

During the time period when the literature 

participation rates declined, home Internet use soared. 

According to a 2000 Census Bureau report, 42 percent 

of households used the Internet at home – up 

dramatically from 26 percent in 1998, one of the 

earliest years of the Bureau’s tracking.48 By contrast, 

literary reading rates reported in 1982 and 1992 were 

virtually identical in a period before the Internet was 

widely available. It was not until 2002 that the 

reported percentage of adults reading literature 

dropped considerably. 

Also, home Internet users have a similar profile to 

literary readers. They are likely to be well educated 

(bachelor’s degree or higher) and belong to the age 

group whose reading rates show the greatest 

percentage drop. Home Internet use was the greatest 

(50.2 percent) for people ages 25-44. However, this 

pattern of falling literary reading rates timed with 

rising home Internet use may only be coincidental. 

The SPPA did not ask if people substituted Internet 

surfing for reading literary works. 

Demographic factors may have also contributed to 

the overall decline in literary reading rates. Over the 

20-year span of this analysis, Hispanics doubled their 

share of the total U.S. population, rising from 6.4 

percent of the total in 1980 to 12.5 percent in 2003.49 

At the same time, the 2002 SPPA reports that the 

literary reading rate for Hispanics was only half that 

of non-Hispanic whites. So, the dramatic population 

growth of Hispanics may have contributed to lower 

literary reading rates for the adult population as a 

whole. 

But this assumption has shortcomings. If 

Hispanic populations were a significant reason for 

falling rates of literary reading, presumably the SPPA 

would have reported heavier decreases in literary 

reading by adults with lower levels of education (given 

that education levels are lower for Hispanics). 

Instead, the survey reports that literary reading fell 

among all education levels. Still, population growth 

for this ethnic group is considerable. For this reason 

alone, arts agencies and policy makers may want to 

target Hispanics for programs to raise literary reading 

rates. 

These are only two factors of many that could 

have contributed to the drop in the share of adults 

reading literature in 2002. Newspaper and magazine 

articles about post-September 11 developments and 

the war in Afghanistan may have hindered literary 

reading during the survey year. 

Additional data and research are needed to 

explain why literary reading fell in 2002 and if indeed 

there is a pattern of decline over time. More research 

is needed to complete the portrait of the reader of 

literary works. Some questions for a research agenda 

and a national conversation on literature participation 

might include: 

• How does literature, particularly serious literary 

work, compete with the Internet, popular 

entertainment, and other increased demands on 

leisure time? 

48 U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, “Home Computers and Internet Use in the United States: August 2000.” Current Population Report, P23-207, September, 2001. 49 U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau, “The Hispanic Population.” Census 2000 Brief, May 2001. 

National Endowment for the Arts 30 Reading at Risk 
• How do parents, communities, schools, and the 

education system respond to illiteracy and aliteracy? 

• Have changes in the ways publishers choose and 

market books had any effect on literature 

participation? 

• If education levels are the surest predictor of 

literature participation, what can be done to increase 

the reading level by less educated adults? 

• What factors are at work in the decline in reading 

literary works among people ages 18 to 45? Are we 

losing a generation of readers? 

The National Endowment for the Arts and other 

organizations involved with literature can look 

forward to future arts participation surveys (the next 

SPPA is scheduled for 2007) to further investigate who 

reads literature. 

National Endowment for the Arts 31 Reading at Risk 

Appendix A


Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

Background and Methodology 

In 1982, the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) 

initiated the Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

(SPPA) to examine the public’s involvement in a 

variety of arts and art forms. The survey examines 

general participation in the performing arts, visual 

arts, historic site visits, music, and literature. 

1982 and 1985 Surveys of Public Participation in the Arts 

The U.S. Census Bureau administered the first SPPA 

in conjunction with the 1982 National Crime Survey, 

which surveyed over 72,000 individuals. More than 

17,000 respondents over 18 years of age were 

interviewed for the SPPA. 

The survey concentrated primarily on live arts 

participation, consisting of ten questions. The survey 

asked the live arts questions of all survey respondents. 

On a rotating basis, it asked questions pertaining to 

arts education, non-arts leisure activities, arts facilities, 

music preferences, arts creation and other 

participation, media engagement, and barriers to 

attending live performances categories. As a result, the 

sample sizes for the latter questions were smaller than 

for the live arts category. Approximately 25 percent of 

the interviews were completed by phone. 

In 1985, the NEA sponsored a second SPPA 

through the U.S. Census Bureau as part of the newly 

named National Crime Victimization Survey. It was 

nearly identical to the 1982 survey. 

1992 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

The third SPPA, conducted in 1992, surveyed 12,736 

individuals over 18 years of age and followed the same 

format as previous surveys. However, questions about 

arts education, non-arts leisure activities, etc. were 

asked throughout the year, thereby providing a larger 

sample size for these questions than in the 1982 survey. 

Additionally, the NEA refined the survey instrument 

by adding, omitting, and modifying various questions 

and sections. For example, the arts education category 

includes new questions about the location of arts 

education and if survey respondents had taken arts 

education lessons in the last year. The survey dropped 

questions about craftwork lessons. Some questions 

concerning live attendance, recreation lifestyle, music 

preferences, arts creation, and media participation 

were also modified. 

1997 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

From June to October of 1997, the NEA conducted a 

fourth edition of the SPPA. This survey was not 

administered through the U.S. Census Bureau’s 

National Victimization Survey. Instead, the NEA 

retained Westat Corporation of Rockville, Maryland, a 

private research firm, to conduct a stand-alone 

telephone survey. Using a random-digit dial telephone 

survey plan, more than 12,000 individuals over 18 

years of age were interviewed. However, due to the 

considerable differences in survey methodologies, the 

1997 telephone survey produced results that are not 

comparable to previous or subsequent surveys. The 

1997 survey can only be analyzed as a stand-alone, 

point-in-time survey, and not in an SPPA historical 

analysis. 

2002 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts 

In 2002, the NEA sponsored its fifth and most recent 

SPPA. For the first time, the 2002 SPPA was 

implemented as a supplement to the U.S. Census 

Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS), a research 

instrument issued monthly to approximately 60,000 

households throughout the nation for use by the U.S. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U.S. Census Bureau 

weighted each survey record so that the survey sample 

would reflect the nation’s estimated demographic and 

geographic profile. 

A total of 17,135 respondents in the August 2002 

CPS participated in the 2002 SPPA. Respondents were 

asked all of the 2002 SPPA questions, resulting in an 

National Endowment for the Arts 33 Reading at Risk 
overall sample size applicable to the entire survey. 

In general, the 2002 survey instrument followed 

that used in the 1992 SPPA, only incorporating slight 

modifications. For instance, the media engagement 

category added a video (DVD) discs option to 

questions about watching arts programs via television. 

The music preferences category added and omitted 

various music categories, and two new sections were 

added to the end of the survey. The first new section 

asked about trips away from home to attend arts 

events or art museums, and the second new section 

asked the individual’s frequency of reading about, 

discussing, or accessing information about the arts via 

the Internet. 

National Endowment for the Arts 34 Reading at Risk 
AppendixB


Data Collection 

Basic CPS 

The basic Current Population Survey (CPS) collects 

primary labor force data about the civilian 

noninstitutional population. Interviewers ask 

questions concerning labor force participation about 

each member 15 years and older in every sample 

household. 

The 2002 monthly CPS sample was selected from 

the 1990 Decennial Census files with coverage in all 50 

states and the District of Columbia. The sample is 

continually updated to account for new residential 

construction. To obtain the sample, the United States 

was divided into 2,007 geographic areas. In most 

states, a geographic area consisted of a county or 

several contiguous counties. In some areas of New 

England and Hawaii, minor civil divisions are used 

instead of counties. These 2,007 geographic areas 

were then grouped into 754 strata, and one geographic 

area was selected from each stratum. 

About 60,000 occupied households are eligible for 

interview every month out of the 754 strata. 

Interviewers are unable to obtain interviews at about 

4,500 of these units. This occurs when the occupants 

are not found at home after repeated calls or are 

unavailable for some other reason. 

Each month’s sample is composed of eight 

rotation groups that rotate on a schedule of four 

months in sample, eight months out, and four months 

back again. 

August 2002, Survey of Public Participation in the Arts (SPPA) Supplement 

In addition to the basic CPS, interviewers asked 

supplementary questions on public participation in the 

arts. Households in the outgoing rotation groups are 

eligible sample households for the supplement; 

therefore only 25 percent of the basic CPS households 

were sampled. The SPPA supplement attempted to 

obtain self-responses from household members ages 18 

and over. Proxy responses were allowed if attempts 

for a self-response were unsuccessful. 

The supplement contained questions about the 

household member’s participation in various artistic 

activities from August 1, 2001 to August 1, 2002. It 

asked about the type of artistic activity, the frequency 

of participation, training and exposure, music 

preferences, length of travel for trips to artistic events, 

school-age socializations, and computer usage related 

to artistic information. Interviews were conducted 

during the period of August 18-24, 2002. 

National Endowment for the Arts 35 Reading at Risk 
AppendixC


The main source of information for this research 

monograph is the 2002 Survey of Public Participation 

in the Arts (SPPA), conducted in August 2002 by the 

Census Bureau on behalf of the National Endowment 

for the Arts. More than 17,000 people 18 years of age 

or older responded to the SPPA’s questions about 

participation in the arts, including questions about the 

number and types of books they read. Respondents 

were asked to respond to the survey questions based 

on their activities during a 12-month period leading 

up to August 2002. The response rate to the SPPA was 

70 percent. 

This appendix provides an overview of two 

statistical models that were created in preparing this 

monograph: 

1. a model of factors that can be used to predict

literary reading in 2002; and

2. a model of factors that can be used to predict

frequent reading in 2002

(i.e., reading 12 books or more).

Variables and statistical considerations common to the 

two models will be discussed first. 

Variables 

To predict whether or not a person will read 

literature, some basic background knowledge is 

required. These basic facts are known as independent 

variables (conventionally known as x variables) and 

often include items such as a person’s age, gender, 

ethnic background, education, etc. These examples 

represent several different types of independent 

variable; identification of each variable type is 

pertinent since it determines the statistical technique(s) 

available. Age could be treated as a continuous 

variable since it is quantifiable and can be any 

conceivable value within a specific range (e.g. 45.6667 

years old), but is more commonly identified as an 

interval variable where the difference between each 

value is measurable and constant (e.g. 44, 45, 46 years 

old). Ethnic background and gender are examples of 

categorical variables and measure qualitative 

characteristics that cannot be quantified. Ethnic 

background is a typical categorical variable where 

there are a number of categories with no intrinsic 

order. Gender is a particular type of categorical 

variable known as a dichotomy since it can equal only 

one of two possible values. Similarly, whether a person 

has read literature could be described as a 

dichotomous variable (i.e. person has read 

literature/person has not read literature). In the 

analysis reported here, whether a person has read 

literature is also the dependent variable 

(conventionally known as ‘Y’) since it is the outcome 

to be predicted based on a set of independent 

variables. 

Mathematical and Statistical Considerations 

The following mathematical and statistical discussion 

has been derived from Logistic Regression Using the 

SAS System: Theory and Application by Paul D. Allison 

(1991). Further review can be obtained from Pampel 

(2000) and Wright (1995) as listed in the References 

section at the end of this appendix. 

Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression or linear 

regression is the most common statistical technique 

employed to predict the value of a dependent variable 

based on a given set of independent variables. In OLS 

regression, independent variables can be continuous, 

categorical, or interval. However, if OLS is used to 

predict the value of a dichotomous dependent variable 

such as ‘literary reading,’ violations of the statistical 

assumptions of ordinary linear regression and a 

conceptual problem occur. As a result, OLS regression 

is not suitable to an analysis of literary reading. A 

demonstration of the conceptual problem can be 

obtained by setting Y equal to ‘1’ (read literature) or ‘0’ 

(did not read literature) and then attempting to 

predict the expected value of Y using a set of 

dependent variables. Since 0 and 1 are the only 

possible values for Y, the expected value of Y is 

equivalent to the probability that Y is equal to 1 (i.e. 

the probability that a given person read literature). 

National Endowment for the Arts 36 Reading at Risk 
This can be seen in the following equations where 

E(Yi) is the expected value of Y for any given i person: 

E(Yi) = 1 x Probability (Yi=1) + 0 x Probability (Yi=0), 

and substituting pi = Probability (Yi=1) 

we obtain E(Yi) = pi. 

Furthermore, application of the statistical assumptions 

that the error in the expected value of Y does not vary 

with x and that Y is a linear function of x, we obtain in 

its simplest form what is called the linear probability 

model: 

Equation 1 

pi = α + βxi. 

where α is the Y intercept and β is the regression 

coefficient or slope. This equation says that the 

probability that Y=1 is a linear function of x. If x 

happens to be a continuous variable that has no upper 

or lower bound it is theoretically possible to obtain 

values of Y which are less than 0 or greater than 1. 

Since linear functions are by nature unbounded, and 

probabilities by definition cannot exceed 1 or fall 

below 0, a nonsensical situation with little predictive 

value arises. 

Logistic regression (also called logit analysis) has 

been developed to address statistical and conceptual 

issues that arise from the use of OLS with 

dichotomous dependent variables. Logistic regression 

can also be used with quantitative and/or categorical 

independent variables making it an optimal method 

for social sciences data analyses. 

One of the key concepts of logistic regression is 

the relationship between probability and odds. Odds 

are commonly used by gamblers and refer to the ratio 

between the expected number of times an event will 

occur to the expected number of times an event will 

not occur. For example, if the odds are 5 to 1 then we 

expect the event to occur 5 times as many times as not 

and if the odds are 1/5 then we would expect the 

reverse. The relationship between probability and 

odds can be shown as: 

Equation 2 

O = p/1-p = probability of event/probability of no 

event 

and be rearranging the terms, 

p = O/1+O 

or more explicitly in the following table: 

Probability 

0.1 

0.2 

0.3 

0.4 

0.5 

0.6 

0.7 

0.8 

0.9 

Odds 

0.11 

0.25 

0.43 

0.67 

1.00 

1.50 

2.33 

4.00 

9.00 

It is clear from the table that if the probability of an 

event occurring is less than 0.5 that the odds are less 

than 1. Furthermore, from equation 2 it can be seen 

that while there is no upper boundary on odds, the 

lower boundary is still 0. However, by taking the 

logarithm of the odds the lower boundary can be 

removed. Starting with the linear probability equation 

discussed above (Equation 1), followed by changing 

probabilities to odds (Equation 2) and then taking the 

logarithm of these odds, we obtain the logit model as 

shown in the equation below (from Allison, 1991): 

Equation 3 

log (pi/1-pi) = α + βxi1 + βxi2 + ... + βkxik 

where k refers to the number of independent 

variables, i = 1,...., n individuals, and pi is the 

probability that Y=1. The term ‘log (pi/1-pi)’ is also 

known as the logit or log-odds. Natural logarithms 

tend to be used by most researchers although base-10 

logarithms may be used as well. 

National Endowment for the Arts 37 Reading at Risk 
Multiple Logistic Regression Model to Predict

Literary Reading in Adults 

Prior to the development of the model, the 

unweighted 2002 SPPA dataset was examined for 

trends and correlated variables. The dependent 

variable was “literary reading in adults” and this was 

scored as ‘1’ if the respondent had reported reading 

literature in the previous 12 months and ‘0’ if they did 

not. The frequency distribution of literary readers and 

non-readers was investigated for survey responses and 

lead to the identification of trends and a subset of 

independent variables most likely to explain whether 

people read literature or not. These variables were 

then subjected to a multiple correlation analysis to 

determine if any were correlated with each other (also 

called collinear or multicollinear analysis). The 

independent variables were also correlated with the 

dependent variable ‘literary reading’ to further 

determine which were likely to play the largest role in 

the prediction of literary reading. Collinearity analyses 

were performed primarily to eliminate correlated 

independent variables in the regression model since 

highly correlated independent variables may result in 

inflated standard errors and unstable regression 

coefficients. For example, the education levels of the 

mothers and fathers of respondents were found to be 

highly correlated (r=0.724, p<.001). At the same time, 

the mother’s education was found to be more highly 

correlated with literary reading in respondents 

compared to the father’s education. As a result, the 

father’s education variable was eliminated from the 

final model. Each potential independent variable was 

examined in this manner prior to construction of the 

regression model. 

Following preliminary exploration of the 2002 

SPPA data, the maximum-likelihood estimation 

method in the PROC LOGISTIC program of the 

SAS version 8.02 statistical software package was used 

to develop the logistic regression model. 

Multicollinearity of independent variables was 

checked for the variables in the final model using the 

PROC REG program with the TOL and VIF options. 

The TOL and VIF options indicate the level of 

inflation in the variance of each coefficient compared 

which what it would be if the variable was 

uncorrelated with any other variable in the model 

(Allison, 1991). 

Table 1 summarizes the results of the final 

multiple logistic regression to determine statistically 

significant (p<0.05) demographic predictors of literary 

reading in adults. Table 3 shows the partial correlation 

coefficients of all significant independent variables for 

the literary reading and frequent/avid reader logistic 

regression models. The partial correlation coefficient 

or r gives a measure of the degree of correlation 

(positive or negative) between each independent 

variable and the dependent variable while excluding 

the effects of all the other variables. The ranking for 

each variable indicates the relative order of the 

correlation of each independent variable to the 

dependent variable. 

Coding of Independent Variables 

Specific levels of the independent variables within the 

broad groups of education, gender, ethnicity and race, 

region, age, annual family income, mother’s education, 

and attendance at an art museum and/or performing 

arts in the previous 12 months were determined to be 

statistically significant (p<0.05) predictors of literary 

reading in adults. The variables and their 

corresponding reference variables are shown in Table 

1. Only variables that were statistically significant 

were included in the model and as a result some levels 

were grouped together. 

All levels of respondent education were found to 

be statistically significant predictors of literary reading 

and, as shown in Table 1, were broken into several 

dummy variables corresponding to grade school only, 

some high school, some college, college graduate, and 

graduate school. Each survey respondent was assigned 

a ‘1’ for the highest education level achieved and a ‘0’ 

for all other education levels. High school graduation 

was used as the reference variable for odds ratio 

interpretation. 

Gender was coded ‘1’ for male and ‘0’ for female 

and by default female was the reference variable (for 

National Endowment for the Arts 38 Reading at Risk 
dichotomous variables the reference variable is the one 

coded as ‘0’). Ethnicity and race were initially divided 

into ‘Hispanic,’ ‘non-Hispanic white,’ ‘non-Hispanic 

African American,’ and ‘other’ ethnic groups. In the 

final analysis, cases belonging to the ‘other’ ethnic 

category were eliminated since this category was not 

found to be statistically significant. ‘Hispanic’ was set 

as the reference variable. The remaining respondents 

were coded as ‘1’ for the ethnicity and race category to 

which they belonged and ‘0’ for all others. 

Respondents were also divided into Northeast, 

Midwest, South, and West depending on the region of 

residence. Northeast was set as the reference variable 

and respondents were coded as ‘1’ depending on 

residence and coded as ‘0’ for all other regions. 

Since the only age group found to be a significant 

predictor of literary reading was the 18-24 group, the 

variable age was set so that correspondents were given 

a score of ‘1’ if they were aged 18-24 and a score of ‘0’ 

if they were aged 25 or over. 

Similarly, income was broken into two categories; 

respondents were coded as ‘1’ if their income was less 

than $10,000 or if they did not report their income, 

otherwise they were coded as ‘0’. 

The respondent’s mother’s education variable was 

scored as ‘1’ if the respondent’s mother attended at 

least some college and as ‘0’ if she did not. 

The arts attendance variable was broken into 

three dummy variables. Attendance at either an art 

museum or a performing arts event in the previous 

year resulted in a score of ‘1’ for the first variable. 

Attendance at both an art museum and a performing 

arts event in the previous year was scored as ‘1’ for the 

second variable. Otherwise respondents were coded as 

‘0’. The variable ‘attended neither’ was used as the 

reference variable for odds ratio interpretation. 

Interpretation of Regression Coefficients, Standard Error 

and Odds Ratios 

Table 1 illustrates the regression coefficients, the 

standard error associated with each coefficient, and 

the odds ratios including the 95 percent confidence 

interval for each statistically significant predictor of 

literary reading in adults. The regression coefficient 

for each variable measures the effect of that particular 

variable alone on the log-odds that a person read 

literature, given that all other variables are equal. 

Examination of the predictor variable ‘Graduate 

school’ reveals that the coefficient for the regression 

model is 0.8725 which is the logged odds that a person 

with this education level read literature (see equation 

3) with all other factors held constant. By taking the 

inverse of the natural log of this coefficient (e0.8725) we 

obtain the odds ratio point estimate of 2.393. This 

means that, everything else being equal, the odds of a 

person who went to graduate school reading literature 

is more than twice that of a person whose education 

ended with high school graduation. (High school 

graduation is the reference variable for the odds ratios 

for all education variables in this model.). Put another 

way, the odds of a person who graduated from high 

school (and didn’t continue to college) reading 

literature is 0.4178 or 42 percent of the odds of a 

person who went to graduate school (i.e. 1/2.393) 

reading literature. The interpretation of the odds 

ratios for dichotomous variables such as ‘gender’ is 

identical. In this case, the chances of a male reading 

literature (net of the effects of all other predictor 

variables) are less than half (0.431) of the chances of a 

female reading literature. For each odds ratio point 

estimate the corresponding 95 percent confidence limit 

was calculated using the standard error for the 

regression coefficient and outlines the degree of 

sampling variability in that coefficient. 

At the bottom of Table 1 the proportion of 

correctly identified cases, false positives and false 

negatives at the 0.500 probability level is given for the 

regression model. These statistics give the proportion 

of observed cases which would be classified correctly 

using the set of independent variables identified in the 

given model when the calculated probability of being 

a literature reader is 0.500 or higher. These statistics 

also estimate the proportion which would be classified 

as literary readers when they were not (false positives), 

National Endowment for the Arts 39 Reading at Risk 
and the proportion classified as non-literary readers 

when in fact they did read literature (false negatives). 

Multiple Logistic Regression Model to Predict 

Reading of 12 or More Books Per Year in 2002 

(“Frequent”and “avid”readers) 

The goal of the second statistical model is to predict 

whether literature-reading adults were likely to read 

12 or more books based on the same set of 

demographic predictor variables as in the previous 

analysis. Prior to the construction of the logistic 

regression model based on the unweighted 2002 SPPA 

dataset, all data from respondents who did not read 

literature in the previous year were eliminated. The 

dependent variable was ‘frequent/avid reader’ and the 

remaining respondents were given a score of ‘1’ if they 

reported reading 12 or more books in the previous 

year and ‘0’ if they had not. 

The maximum likelihood estimation method 

within the PROC LOGISTIC program was used to 

construct the logistic regression model as previously 

described. Multicollinearity of independent variables 

within the final model was analyzed as in the previous 

model. 

Table 2 provides a summary of the final multiple 

logistical model containing the statistically significant 

(p<0.05) predictors of readers of 12 or more books per 

year. The regression coefficients, standard errors, p 

values and reference variable interpretation are as 

before. The odds ratio point estimates (with 95 percent 

confidence intervals) give the odds of being a 

frequent/avid reader for each particular variable, all 

other variables being equal. The multiple correlation 

analysis of the predictor variables is shown in Table 3. 

Coding of Independent Variables and 

Interpretation of Odds Ratios 

Specific levels of the independent variables (education, 

gender, ethnicity and race, television viewing habits, 

age, employment, mother’s education, participation in 

charity/volunteer work, and attendance at art 

museums and performing arts events) were shown to 

be significant (p<0.05) predictors of whether or not an 

adult read 12 or more books in the previous 12 

months. As before, only variables that were 

statistically significant were included in the model. 

The results are summarized in Table 2. 

Respondents with at least some college (coded as 

‘1’) were predicted to be nearly 28 percent more likely 

to be a frequent/avid reader (everything else being 

equal) than those with a high school diploma or less 

(coded as ‘0’). 

Gender of the correspondent was coded as ‘1’ if 

male and ‘0’ if female. Analysis of the odds ratios 

suggested that males are 0.633 times as likely as 

females to read 12 or more books in a year. 

Analysis of the ethnicity and race variables 

indicated that within this category, only the nonHispanic white group was a statistically significant 

predictor of frequent/avid reading. As a result, 

respondents were scored as ‘1’ if they were nonHispanic white Americans and ‘0’ if they were 

Hispanic Americans, non-Hispanic African 

Americans, or from another ethnic or racial group. 

The logistic regression analysis suggested that nonHispanic white people were 1.6 times as likely to fall 

into the frequent/avid reader group compared with all 

the other ethnic and racial groups. 

Television viewing habits were broken into three 

dummy variables: 0 hours of television watching per 

day, 1-3 hours per day, and 4 or more hours per day. 

The group corresponding to 1-3 hours of television 

per day was set as the reference variable and 

respondents were scored as ‘1’ for the television 

viewing class to which they belonged and ‘0’ for all 

others. Examination of the odds ratios reveals that 

people who watch no television are 1.475 times as 

likely to read 12 or more books in a year than those 

who watch 1-3 hours per day. Alternatively, those who 

reported watching 4 or more hours of television per 

day would be expected to be only 88 percent as likely 

to read 12 or more books compared with those in the 

1-3 hour reference group. 

The variable ‘age’ was divided into two groups 

representing respondents less than 45 years old (scored 

as ‘1’) and those aged 45 or older (scored as ‘0’). The 

logistic regression model predicts that respondents 

National Endowment for the Arts 40 Reading at Risk 
under the age of 45 were only 63 percent as likely to 

be frequent/avid readers compared with those aged 45 

or greater. 

Respondents who were not in the labor force were 

given a score of ‘1’ while those who were in the labor 

force (unemployed or employed) were scored as ‘0’. 

The odds ratio analysis suggested that respondents 

who were not in the labor force were more likely (17 

percent) to be frequent/avid readers than those who 

self-identified as being in the labor force. 

The respondent’s mother’s education variable was 

scored as ‘1’ if the mother attended at least some 

college and as ‘0’ if she did not. Respondents whose 

mothers attended college were nearly 20 percent more 

likely to be frequent/avid readers than those whose 

mothers had a high school diploma or less. 

The variable ‘charity work’ was scored as ‘1’ if 

respondents reported participation in volunteer or 

charity work in the previous year and as ‘0’ if they did 

not. Participation in charity work is associated with a 

26 percent increase in the odds of being a 

frequent/avid reader compared to those who did not 

perform volunteer or charity work. 

Attendance at both an art museum and a 

performing arts event was a significant predictor of 

reading 12 or more books in a year. Respondents were 

scored as ‘1’ if they attended both an art museum and 

performing art event, and ‘0’ if they only attended one 

References 

Pampel, F.C. 2000. Logistic Regression: A Primer. Sage 

University Papers Series on Quantitative Applications in 

the Social Sciences, 07-132. Sage Publications, Inc., 

Thousand Oaks, CA, 84 pp. 

Allison, P.D. 1991. Logistic Regression Using the SAS® 

System: Theory and Application. SAS Institute Inc., 

Cary, NC: pp 5-78. 

Wright, R.E. 1995. Logistic Regression. In Reading and 

Understanding Multivariate Statistics, edited by L. G. 

Grimm and P.R. Yarnold, American Psychological 

Association, Washington, DC, pp 217-244. 

or didn’t attend either in the previous year. 

Respondents who attended both were 2.6 times as 

likely to be a frequent/avid reader compared with 

those who attended one or neither activity. 

National Endowment for the Arts 41 Reading at Risk 
Appendix Table 1 

Summary of Multiple Logistic Regression Predicting Whether Adults have Read Literature (n=16,183). 

Intercept 

Grade school 

Some high school 

Some college 

College graduate 

Graduate school 

Male 

Non-Hispanic white 

Non-Hispanic African American 

Midwest 

South 

West 

Young (under 25) 

Low or not reported 

At least some college 

Art museum OR performing arts 

Art museum AND performing arts 

Education 

Sex 

Ethnicity & Race 

Region 

Age 

Income 

Mother's Education 

Arts Attendance 

Regression 

Coefficient 

-0.8747 

-0.8454 

-0.434 

0.3279 

0.5652 

0.8725 

-0.8423 

0.6186 

0.2701 

-0.1434 

-0.2264 

0.1296 

-0.1599 

-0.1813 

0.3871 

0.9654 

1.7851 

0.0843 

0.1029 

0.0707 

0.0456 

0.0574 

0.078 

0.0369 

0.0711 

0.0913 

0.053 

0.0516 

0.0557 

0.0635 

0.0494 

0.0482 

0.0437 

0.058 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

0.0081 

0.0068 

<0.0001 

0.02 

0.0118 

0.0002 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

At the 0.5000 probability level, the proportion of cases correctly classified with the model above is 71.3%; the false positive rate is 26.8%; and the false negative rate is 30.2%. 

Variable 

Standard 

Error 

p 

value 

National Endowment for the Arts 42 Reading at Risk 
Reference 

Variable 

High school graduate 

as above 

as above 

as above 

as above 

Female 

Hispanic 

as above 

Northeast 

as above 

as above 

Age 25+ 

Reported income > $9,999 

High school or less 

Attended neither 

Attended neither 

0.429 

0.648 

1.388 

1.76 

2.393 

0.431 

1.856 

1.31 

0.866 

0.797 

1.138 

0.852 

0.834 

1.473 

2.626 

5.96 

0.351 

0.564 

1.269 

1.572 

2.054 

0.401 

1.615 

1.095 

0.781 

0.721 

1.021 

0.753 

0.757 

1.34 

2.41 

5.32 

0.525 

0.744 

1.518 

1.97 

2.788 

0.463 

2.134 

1.567 

0.961 

0.882 

1.27 

0.965 

0.919 

1.619 

2.861 

6.677 

Odds Ratios 

Point 

Estimate 

Lower 95% 

Con. Limit 

Upper 95% 

Con. Limit 

National Endowment for the Arts 43 Reading at Risk 
Appendix Table 2 

Summary of Multiple Logistic Regression Predicting Whether Adults have Read 12 or More Books 

Intercept 

At least some college 

Male 

Non-Hispanic white 

none 

4 or more hours 

<45 years old 

Not in Labor Force 

At least some college 

Some volunteer/charity work 

Art museum AND performing arts 

Education 

Sex 

Ethnicity & Race 

TV Viewing (hours/day) 

Age 

Employment 

Mother's Education 

Charity Work 

Arts Attendance 

Regression 

Coefficient 

-0.9113 

0.2432 

-0.4575 

0.4898 

0.3889 

-0.1273 

-0.4538 

0.1599 

0.177 

0.2337 

0.3738 

0.0915 

0.0577 

0.0517 

0.0725 

0.114 

0.061 

0.052 

0.0569 

0.0554 

0.0501 

0.0542 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

0.0006 

0.0369 

<0.0001 

0.005 

<0.0014 

<0.0001 

<0.0001 

At the 0.5000 probability level, the proportion of cases correctly classified with the model above is 62.3%; the false positive rate is 42.7%; and the false negative rate is 36.4%. 

Variable Standard 

Error 

p 

value 

(n=7,555) 

National Endowment for the Arts 44 Reading at Risk 
Reference 

Variable 

High school or less 

Female 

African American, Hispanic 

and other 

1-3 hours 

as above 

Age 45+ 

In Labor Force 

(Unemployed or employed) 

High school or less 

No volunteer/charity work 

Attended only one or 

didn’t attend either 

1.275 

0.633 

1.632 

1.475 

0.88 

0.635 

1.173 

1.194 

1.263 

1.453 

1.139 

0.572 

1.416 

1.18 

0.781 

0.574 

1.05 

1.071 

1.145 

2.41 

1.428 

0.7 

1.881 

1.845 

0.992 

0.703 

1.312 

1.33 

1.394 

2.861 

Odds Ratios 

Point 

Estimate 

Lower 95% 

Con. Limit 

Upper 95% 

Con. Limit 

National Endowment for the Arts 45 Reading at Risk 
Appendix Table 3 

Correlation Analysis of Predictor Variables in the Literature Reading and Frequent/Avid Book Reading, Logistic Regression Models 

Education 

Sex 

Ethnicity 

& Race 

Residence 

Age 

Income 

Mother's 

Education 

Arts 

Attendance 

Grade school 

Some High School 

Some College 

College Graduate 

Graduate School 

Male 

Non-Hispanic White 

Non-Hispanic African American 

Midwest 

South 

West 

Young 

Low/Not Reported 

At least some college 

Art museum OR 

Performing Arts 

Art museum AND 

Performing Arts 

-0.159 

-0.155 

0.072 

0.167 

0.168 

-0.179 

0.156 

-0.077 

-0.008 

-0.084 

0.073 

-0.034 

-0.093 

0.207 

0.155 

0.327 

6 

8 

14 

5 

4 

3 

7 

12 

16 

11 

13 

15 

10 

2 

9 

1 

* indicates the partial coefficient ('r) and is a measure of the degree of correlation between the independent variable and the dependent variable excluding the effects of all the other variables. All pa 

reading correlation (this variable was statistically significant in the regression model, see Appendix Table 1). 

Independent Variable y* Rank 

National Endowment for the Arts 46 Reading at Risk 
Education 

Charity Work 

Sex 

Ethnicity 

& Race 

Television 

Viewing 

Age 

Employment 

Mother's 

Education 

Arts 

Attendance 

At least some college 

Volunteer or 

Charity Work 

Male 

Non-Hispanic White 

None 

4+ hours/day 

<45 

Not in labor force 

At least some college 

Art museum AND 

Performing Arts 

0.084 

0.103 

-0.101 

0.104 

0.047 

-0.047 

-0.113 

0.048 

0.056 

0.129 

6 

3 

5 

4 

9 

10 

2 

7 

8 

1 

artial correlation coefficients are statistically significant at the p<0.001 level with the exception of the variable "Midwest" in the literature 

Independent Variable y* Rank 

National Endowment for the Arts 47 Reading at Risk