-EL-QORALTESTIMONYOFBRENDAEKWURZEL,Ph.D.CLIMATESCIENTISTUNIONOFCONCERNEDSCIENTISTSSeptember14,2010BEFORETHEU.S.ENVIRONMENTALPROTECTIONAGENCYPublicHearing:ActiontoEnsureAuthoritytoIssuePermitsunderthePreventionofSignificantDeteriorationProgramtoSourcesofGreenhouseGasEmissions:FederalImplementationPlanIntroductionIamDr.BrendaEkwurzel,aclimatescientistandAssistantDirectorofClimateResearchandAnalysisattheUnionofConcernedScientists.Thankyouforhearingmytestimonytoday.Onbehalfofourmembers,UCSsupportsEPA’seffortstoensurestatepermittingprogramscomplywiththeadministration’sregulationsonindustrialsourcesofgreenhousegasemissions.Suchprogramswouldbeinlinewiththebestavailablescience,whichindicatestheneedforurgentactionstoreduceglobalwarmingemissions.Unabated,overloadingouratmospherewithheat-trappinggasesposessignificantriskstohumanlife,health,andwell-being.CleanAirAct40thAnniversaryTodayisthe40thAnniversaryoftheCleanAirActandoverthelast40yearsthislawhassavedhundredsofthousandsofAmericanlivesandhasallowedthegovernmenttokeepupwiththebestscienceonairpollution.TheCleanAirActhasbeenoneofourcountry’smostsuccessfulpiecesoflegislationandhassavedmoneyandlivesthroughoutitshistory.Inyourreportseries,TheBenefitsandCostsoftheCleanAirAct,theEPAdetailsthelivessaved.1Itprojectsthatin2010alone,theCleanAirActislikelytosaveonaverage23,000livesandpreventnearlyamilliontoover2millionasthmaattacks,onaverage4millionlostworkdays,andbetween23,000and144,000hospitalizationsandemergencyroomvisits.Initsfirsttwodecadesalone,itcreatedbenefitsvaluedatover$22trillion—42timesgreaterthantheestimatedcostsofitsregulations.ClimateChangePutsAmerican’sLivesatRiskClimateChangehasthepotentialtoriskcountlesslivesintheUS.AccordingtotheNationalWeatherService,between2000and2009,fatalitiesfromheat,hurricanes,andfloodswerethetopthreedangerous“natural”hazardsforUScitizens.2Excessiveheatcankillus.Wecanoverheatifoursteadycorebodytemperatureof98.6°F(37°C)riseswithsustainedskintemperaturesabove95°F(35°C).Ifour—skinisnotsufficientlycolderthanourcore,thebodycannotcoolitselfbyconductingmetabolicheattotheskin.3Oncethatheatistransferredtotheskinthenabreezeorlowrelativehumidityarecriticalforsweattoevaporateandhelpuscooldown.3Despitemoderntechnologyandemergencyresponsemeasures,heatwavesEPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0107OralTestimonyUCS9/14/2010in Chicago

and Europe

in 1995 and 2003
still took

an excessive

toll with over 35,000 deaths. 48 Researchers estimated

it is very likely, with greater
than

90 percent confidence

level, that the role

of human-induced

climate change doubled

the risk

of exceeding

the average
2003 summer temperature

in Europe. 4 Shifts

in precipitation

also threaten human health.

On average

in the United States, the amount

of rain falling

in the heaviest

one percent

of rainstorms

has increased nearly

20 percent—almost

three times

the rate

of increase

in total precipitation since 1958.8,5

For some regions

of the United States these percentages

can

go up
to as high

as an average

67 percent increase

in the amount

of rain falling

in the heaviest
most extreme precipitation
events. 8
This

is

a well known consequence

of

a warming planet
that has both increased average evaporation

rates delivering

more water

to

a warmer atmosphere

that can hold have higher relative humidity. 6

In places where
rain

or snow occur, light precipitation

events

are dropping

less rain

or snow

on average

and heavier precipitation

events

are dropping

more rain

or snow on average. Ironically

this trend creates conditions

that are more likely

to produce both intense drought periods punctuated

by floods, often

in the same region. 8 A study

by Ashley

and Ashley

in 2008 analyzed

flood fatalities between

1959 and 2005

in the contiguous
United States, excluding

those from Hurricane Katrina. 7 Texas
had the largest
total number

of fatalities

from flash floods

and river floods over the study period 7 . When standardized

for population,

South Dakota, Mississippi,

West Virginia

and Montana

had the largest fatalities

per 100,000 people from flooding. 7 Those between

the ages

of 10 and

29 and over

60 years

old were disproportionately

at risk. 7 Although human behavior contributed

to these flood statistics,

there

is strong evidence

that the conditions

that put people most

at risk

in the first place, flash floods,

are due

in part

to the shift

in the baseline

to more extreme precipitation

events

in

a warming world. 89 This makes

me wonder

if it is entirely honest

to call these “natural hazards.”

This gives

a false impression

as

it does not acknowledge

the growing

role

of climate change

in shifting

the baseline conditions
within which weather events spawn. There

can
be no doubt that when

a storm forms over

an ocean

or over

a valley,

the initial conditions

of local
sea surface temperature

and atmospheric humidity

are intimately
linked

to

a warmer planet compared

with conditions

a hundred
years ago. Still, there

is

a lot more research

that needs

to be done

to improve
upon
the efforts already underway

at the National Center

for Atmospheric Research,
NOAA

and NASA among others around

the world that are researching

the relative contributions

to weather events from natural cycles

and climate change. Scientists will continue

to work

to reduce

the uncertainty

in preparing seasonal drought,

high heat risk, and prevailing

storm pattern projections

for

a region. While

we must improve

our weather warning systems, emergency response
plans, public health education

and

so on,

it is entirely prudent

for the EPA

to address

the EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0107

Oral Testimony

UCS 9/14/2010

2rootcause—greenhousegasemissionsthatarecausingtheclimatetochangeevenfurther.Extremeweathereventsareincreasinginseverityandthisisonlytheverybeginningofwhatweriskifweallowheat-trappinggasestoaccumulateintheatmosphere.8AccordingtotheUSGlobalClimateChangeResearchProgramreportin2009,the1-in-20-yearheavydownpourisexpectedtobebetween10and25percentheavierbytheendofthecenturythanitisnow.8AccordingtostudiespublishedinthejournalsNatureandScience,ifheat-trappingemissionscontinueunabated,aheatwavesimilartothe2003eventcouldoccureveryotheryearinEuropebytheendofthiscenturyandbeconsideredquiteanordinarysummerwhatisconsideredquiteextraordinaryinourcurrentclimate.1011Rememberthisheatwavetookbetween35,000and50,000lives.4StateandFederalImplementationPlansItisextremelyimportantthattheEPAcomplywiththerequirementsundertheCleanAirActtotakeoverpermittingprogramsforstatesthatcan’torwon’tcomplywithgreenhousegasrules.AsisstipulatedundertheCleanAirAct,astateimplementationplanisacollectionoftheregulationsastatewillusetocleanuppollutedareas.Thestatesareobligatedtonotifythepublicoftheseplans,throughhearingsthatofferopportunitiestocomment,inthedevelopmentofeachstateimplementationplan.TheSIPbecomesthestateTlegalguideforlocalenforcementoftheCleanAirAct.UndertheCleanAirAct,ifastatedoesnotsubmitanimplementationplanthefederalgovernmentisobligatedtorequirethestatetofollowthefederalplan.Stateshaveadutytoprotecttheircitizensfromenvironmentalrisksandifastateisunwillingtoperformthisdutythefederalgovernmentmuststepin.EPAmustplantotakeoverpermittingprogramsinstatesthatdonotmeettherequirementstostartlimitinggreenhousegasemissionsbynextJanuary,whentheagency’sclimaterulesformallykickin.Somestates,suchasTexasandVirginia,havealreadyexpressedoppositiontoEPA’sproposalsandhavecalledthisrequirementundertheCleanAirActunlawful.ThiscouldnotbefurtherfromthetruthandinfactifEPAdoesn’tmoveforwardintheabsenceofstateactiontheagencywouldbeoutofcompliancewiththerequirementsoftheCleanAirAct.ConclusionTheCleanAirActhasbeensosuccessfulbecause,atitsheart,itisdrivenbythebestavailablescience.Historically,theCleanAirActhasbeenusedtorespondtoscientificfindingsaboutthedangersofexposuretosmog,lead,particulatematterandacidrain.Now,weknowthatoverloadingouratmospherewithcarbondioxideisdangerouslyalteringourclimateandthreateningpublichealthincludingmoreextremeweathereventsandasacatalystforthecreationofmoregroundlevelozoneorsmog,aconventionalpollutant,whenfossilfuelemissionsarepresentatsimilarlevels.Nearlyallthestudiestodatefindthatmoreheat-trappinggasesintheatmospheremeanmorelikelyrisksofsevereeventsthataremostthreateningtohumanlife.89KnowingthatfuturestudieswillonlyrefinethisgeneraltrendimpliesthatasaEPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0107OralTestimonyUCS9/14/20103society

we would

be wise

to improve
plans

to adapt

to what historic heat-trapping emissions

have already locked

in for the next two decades

and

at the same time reduce global warming emissions

so that the following decades

do not put even more lives

at risk.
We hope that the states
will meet their deadline

in preparing their plans

for the upcoming greenhouse

gas regulations,

and that the EPA will move forward

on their own

if the states cannot meet their deadline.

By holding

up the requirements

of the Clean

Air Act, the EPA can live
up
to it’s name
and protect

the citizens

of the United States

and perhaps many people around

the world

by implementing

sound regulations

to swiftly

and deeply reduce national global warming emissions.1 Environmental Protection Agency.
1999. The Benefits

and Costs

of the Clean

Air Act 1990

to 2010. United States Environmental Protection Agency Report

to Congress, EPA-410-R-99-001. http://www.epa.gov/oar/sect8

12.2 NOAA. 2009. Natural Hazard Statistics

with preliminary

2009 statistics access online September

10, 2010

at http://www.weather.gov/os/hazstats.shtrnl. Sherwood,

S.C. and

M. Huber. 2010.

An adaptability

limit

to climate change due

to heat stress, Proceedings

of the National Academy

of Sciences. Accessible
online www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/l0.1073/pnas.09

13352107. Stott, P.A., D.A. Stone,

and M.R. Allen. 2004. Human contribution

to the European heatwave

of 2003. Nature
432, 610-614. Kunkel,

K.E., P.D. Bromirski,

H.E. Brooks,

T. Cavazos,

A.V. Douglas,

D.R. Easterling,

K.A. Emanuel, P.Ya. Groisman,

G.J. Holland,

T.R. Knutson,

J.P. Kossin,

P.D. Komar,

D.Fl. Levinson,

and R.L. Smith, 2008: Observed changes

in In: Weather

and Climate Extremes

in

a Changing Climate: Regions

of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean,

and U.S. Pacific Islands [Karl, T.R., G.A. Meehl,

C.D. Miller, S.J. Hassol,
A.M. Waple,

and W.L. Murray (eds.)]. Synthesis

and Assessment Product

3.3. U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Washington,

DC, pp. 35-80.weather

and climate extremes.6 Trenberth,

K.E., P.D. Jones,

P. Ambenje,

R. Bojariu,

D. Easterling,

A. Klein Tank,

D. Parker,

F. Rahimzadeh,

J.A. Renwick,

M. Rusticucci,

B. Soden

and

P. Zhai, 2007: Observations:

Surface

and Atmospheric
Climate Change.

In: Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis. Contribution

of Working Group

Ito the Fourth Assessment
Report

of the Intergovernmental

Panel

on Climate Change [Solomon,

S.,
D. Qin,

M. Manning,

Z. Chen,

M. Marquis,

K.B. Averyt,

M. Tignor

and H.L. Miller (eds.)1. Cambridge University

Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom

and New York,

NY, USA. Ashley,

S.T. and W.S. Ashley. 2008. Flood fatalities

in the United States.JournalofApplied Meteorology

and Climatology, 47:805-8

18.B U.S. Global Change Research Program.
2009. Global climate change impacts

in the United States, edited

by T.R. Karl, J.M. Melillo,

and T.C. Peterson. Cambridge University

Press.‘ National Research Council. 2010. America Climate Choices: Panel

on Advancing

the Science

of Climate Change.

The National Academies

Press. Washington,

D.C. Available

at http://www.nap.edu/catalog/l

2782.html10 Schär,

C., and

G. Jendritzky.

2004. Climate change:

Hot news from summer
2003. Nature
432, 559- 560‘ Meehl,
G.A., and

C. Tebaldi.
2004. More intense,
more frequent,

and longer lasting heatwaves

in the 21st Century. Science

305, 994-997. EPA-HQ-OAR-2010-0

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