NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

NJ Transit No Fare Increase

RACM Analysis

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 1

Control Measure:

Encourage the use of transit by not increasing fares despite inflationary 

pressures.

Description:

Transit ridership is dependant on many factors including out-of-pocket costs such 

as transit fares. One way to achieve greater ridership would be to limit or 

eliminate fare increases such that the real cost to transit riders goes down 

relative to inflation and other modes. This would encourage more people to 

switch modes resulting in air quality benefits.

Methodology:

The modeling tools and procedures used to predict the interaction between 

transit fares and ridership generally do not reflect the impact of inflation. Rather 

than modeling no fare increase directly, a fare decrease equal to inflation was 

applied to transit fares while all other transportation costs were held constant. 

Inflation was assumed to be

Each of the MPO/Ozone Non-Attainment areas was analyzed using available 

tools, data and assumptions. While using the regional transportation models 

would have been optimal, time and data requirements made this option 

impractical for the purposes of this study. Instead, the following models and 

procedures were applied:

NJTPA Region

In this region a simplified, spreadsheet version of the NJ Transit Regional 

Transportation Demand Model was used to estimate the change in ridership. 

This highly automated spreadsheet know as Quick-Share was recently updated 

to reflect the assumptions, constants and coefficients found in the most recent 

version of the full NJ Transit regional model. Quick-Share works by looking at 

individual transit markets and then estimating the change and market share 

based on changes in the input values such as transit headways, available modes 

and transit pricing. The entire northern New Jersey ozone non-attainment area 

was divided into 9 different markets blanketing the entire region. The definition 

and the size of these markets were supplied by NJ Transit and correspond to 

existing market definitions used by the agency. Samples of the Quick-Share 

inputs and results can be found at the end of this document. Overall results were 

as follows:

Total Trips Reduced Region wide : 7,475

Total Vehicle Trips Reduced Region wide: 6,399

Total Vehicle Miles of Travel Reduced Region Wide: 133,407
NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

NJ Transit No Fare Increase

RACM Analysis

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 2

DVRPC and South Jersey Regions

In order to calculate the impact of a no-fare-increase policy in these areas, a 

simple price elasticity was used. Current ridership for various markets in the 

southern New Jersey were obtained from NJ Transit. A fare elasticity of -0.25 

used for both the DVRPC and South Jersey regions as suggested by NJ Transit. 

The resulting increase in transit trips was divided by the average vehicle 

occupancy in the region to get the total number of trips reduced, and the average 

trip length for trips in the region was used to calculate the total vehicle miles of 

travel eliminated. A summary of these calculations can be found in Table 1. The 

VT and VMT reductions attributed to DVRPC and SJTPO region are shown in 

Table 2.

Distribution of VT/VMT Reductions to Counties and Emissions Analysis

Once the VT and VMT reductions by MPO had been established, these 

reductions were further distributed to the county level. This distribution was 

developed from a weighted average combining the transit mode share and 

population in each county. Table 3 summarizes the results of this redistribution. 

Finally, the VT and VMT reductions were used as input into the Emissions Only 

analysis found in the NJ-AQONE software package. Peak summer day and 

annual emission reductions were calculated by the software for every county, 

and the county data was aggregated into non-attainment areas. The results are 

shown in the following Tables:

Results: Statewide Summer Day/Annual Benefits

Total VT Reduced = 8,222 trips/day Statewide

Total VMT Reduced = 148,263 miles/day Statewide

Emission Reductions (Statewide):

Pollutant

Type

Analysis Year 2009

Tons/Day Tons/Year

VOC 0.07 -

NOx 0.08 19.15

PM2.5 - 0.54

SO2 - 0.33
NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

NJ Transit No Fare Increase

RACM Analysis

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 3

Ozone Analysis – Daily Benefits in New Jersey

Benefits 

(Reductions)

Ozone Non-Attainment Area

New York-N. New 

Jersey-Long Island,

NY-NJ-CT

PhiladelphiaWilmington-Atlantic City

PA-NJ-MD-DE

VT 6,399 1,283

VMT 133,406 10,464

VOC (Tons/Day) 0.066 0.0057

NOx (Tons/Day) 0.071 0.0055

PM2.5 Analysis – Annual Benefits in New Jersey

Benefits 

(Reductions)

PM2.5 Non-Attainment Area

New York-N. New 

Jersey-Long Island,

NY-NJ-CT

PhiladelphiaWilmington

PA-NJ-DE

VT 1,607,750 115,750

VMT 32,949,750 944,250

NOx (Tons/Year) 17.55 0.538

PM2.5 (Tons/Year) 0.49 0.017

SO2 (Tons/Year) 0.30 0.010

Cost/Benefit Analysis

Total costs of the program were as follows:

Lost revenue = 11.5% x Current Total farebox Reveneues

= 11.5% x $530.6 million

= $61.02 Million

Average Fare Paid = Total Farebox Revenues / Ridership

= $530.6 Million / $237.4 Million Riders

= $2.24 / Rider Currently 

-11.5% (to account for no fare increase)

= $1.98/New Rider

New Riders: NJTPA: 7,475

DVRPC & SJTPO: 2,497

Total: 9,972 Additional Riders
NEW JERSEY DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

NJ Transit No Fare Increase

RACM Analysis

Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 4

Total Additional Revenue = 9,972 * $1.98 = $19,744.56

Net Cost = $61.02 Million - $19,745 = $61.0 Million

Total costs of the program would be incurred across the state, even in areas not 

part of a particular non-attainment area. Total costs were proportioned by the 

expected vehicle trip reductions within the respective non-attainment areas:

For Ozone

83.3% to the NY-NJ-CT non-attainment area or $50.8 Million

16.7% to the PA-NJ-DE-MD non-attainment area $10.2 Million

For PM2.5

93.3% to the NY-NJ-CT non-attainment area or $56.9 Million

6.7% to the PA-NJ-DE non-attainment area or $4.1Million

Cost/Benefit Results

Pollutant

Cost/Benefit for Each Pollutant

Ozone PM 2.5*

NY-NJ-CT PA-NJ-DE-MD NY-NJ-CT PA-NJ-DE

VOC ($/Ton/Day) $764,862,689 $1,786,818,327 - -

NOx ($/Ton/Day) $717,569,977 $1,857,653,422 - -

NOx ($/Ton/Year) - - $810,349,284 $1,904,820,725 

PM2.5 ($/Ton/Year) - - $28,932,807,672 $58,922,210,876 

SO2 ($/Ton/Year) - - $47,752,781,465 $98,846,259,998 

*Annual Costs used in calculation of cost/benefit ratio are daily costs multiplied by 250
Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 5

Table 1: Summary of Fare Elasticity Calculation for the DVRPC and SJTPO Regions

Market Riders

Fair 

Change Elasticity

New 

Ridership

Avg. Veh. 

Occupancy

Veh. 

Trips 

Reduced

Average 

Trip 

Length

VMT 

Reduced

SJ Local Bus 39,200 -11.5% -0.25 40,327 1.37 823 8.15 6,704

SJ Commuter Bus 15,100 -11.5% -0.25 15,534 1.37 317 8.15 2,583

Seashore Bus 700 -11.5% -0.25 720 1.37 15 8.15 120

Phil Commuter Bus 27,900 -11.5% -0.25 28,702 1.37 585 8.15 4,772

AC Rail (Summer) 3,960 -11.5% -0.25 4,074 1.37 83 8.15 677

Table 2: Distribution of VT/VMT Benefits to MPO Regions

For NJTPA Veh 

Trips 

Reduced

VMT 

Reduced

6,399 133,407 

For DVRPC and SJTPO

Market

New 

Riders

Veh 

Trips 

Reduced

VMT 

Reduced

DVRPC SJTPO

Percent 

in MPO

Veh 

Trips 

Reduced

VMT 

Reduced

Percent 

in MPO

Veh 

Trips 

Reduced

VMT 

Reduced

SJ Local Bus 1,127 823 6,704 70% 576 4,693 30% 247 2,011

SJ Commuter Bus 434 317 2,583 30% 95 775 70% 222 1,808

Seashore Bus 20 15 120 0% 0 0 100% 15 120

Phil Commuter Bus 802 585 4,772 80% 468 3,817 20% 117 954

AC Rail (Summer) 114 83 677 50% 42 339 50% 42 339

Total: 1,181 9,624 Total: 642 5,232
Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 6

Table 3: Distribution of VT/VMT Reductions By County

County

Percent of 

Total MPO 

Transit Trips

VT Reduction VMT 

Reduction

Bergen 14.79% 946 19,725

Essex 21.18% 1,355 28,253

Hudson 28.33% 1,813 37,800

Hunterdon 0.26% 17 349

Middlesex 9.62% 616 12,839

Monmouth 7.42% 475 9,897

Morris 2.57% 165 3,432

Ocean 1.54% 98 2,052

Passaic 5.13% 328 6,842

Somerset 1.88% 121 2,514

Sussex 0.35% 22 466

Union 6.78% 434 9,042

Warren 0.15% 9 195

NJTPA 100.00% 6,399 133,407 

Atlantic 53.87% 346 2,819

Cape May 19.13% 123 1,001

Cumberland 21.49% 138 1,124

Salem 5.51% 35 288

SJTPO 100.00% 642 5,232

Burlington 14.45% 93 756

Camden 50.21% 322 2,627

Gloucester 7.54% 48 394

Mercer 27.81% 178 1,455

DVRPC (NJ) 100.00% 1,181 9,624
Michael Baker Jr., Inc. Page 7

Sample Input Screen from Quickshare