### 8

- D

- i APPENDIX 8

- D. LIFE

- CYCLE COST ANALYSIS USING ALTERNATIVE

ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIOS FOR FURNACES

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

8

- D.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ . 8

- D

- 1

8

- D.2 HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH RESULTS

................................ .......................... 8

- D

- 2

8

- D.3 LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH RESULTS

................................ ........................... 8

- D

- 4

LIST OF TABLES

Table 8

- D.2.1 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, High Economic Growth

........................ 8

- D

- 2

Table 8

- D.2.2 Manufactured Home Gas Furnaces, High Economic Growth

................... 8

- D

- 3

Table 8

- D.2.3 Oil

- Fired Furnaces, High Economic Growth

................................ ............. 8

- D

- 3

Table 8

- D.3.1 Non

- Weatherized Ga s Furnaces, Low Economic Growth

......................... 8

- D

- 4

Table 8

- D.3.2 Manufactured Home Gas Furnaces, Low Economic Growth

.................... 8

- D

- 5

Table 8

- D.3.3 Oil

- Fired Furnaces, Low Economic Growth

................................ ............. 8

- D

- 5

### 8

- D

- 1 APPENDIX 8

- D. LIFE

- CYCLE COST ANALYSIS USING ALTERNATIVE

ECONOMIC GROWTH SCEN ARIOS FOR FURNACES

8

- D.1 INTRODUCTION

This appendix presents LCC results using energy price forecasts from alternative

economic growth scenarios. The scenarios are based on the High Economic Growth case and the

Low Economic Growth case fr om the May 2010 release of the AEO20 10

. 1 

### To estimate energy

prices after 2035 in the high and low scenarios, DOE used the growth rate between 2020 and

2035.

The forecasts in these cases are shown in Appendix 10

- B

. Ener gy prices are higher in the

High Economic Growth case and lower in the Low Economic Growth case . The energy price

forecasts affect the energy savings at different efficiency levels.

### 8

- D

- 2 8

- D.2 HIGH ECONOMIC GROWTH RESULTS

Table 8

- D.2.1 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces , High Economic Growth

Efficiency

Level AFUE Life

- Cycle Cost

2009$ Life

- Cycle Cost Savings

2009$ Median

Payback

Period

years Installed

Cost Discounted

Operating

Cost LCC Average

Savings

2009$ % of Households that

Experience

Net

Cost No

Impact Net

Benefit

Nation

0 80% 1,786 9,978 11,764 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,357 9,004 11,361 104 25 52 23 15.4

2 92% 2,419 8,831 11,249 158 25 42 33 11.6

3 95% 2,564 8,584 11,148 235 35 17 48 11.5

4 98% 2,830 8,474 11,303 80 63 0 37 19.8

North

0 80% 1,901 12,090 13,991 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,474 10,890 13,364 170 10 71 19 10.0

2 92% 2,536 10,676 13,213 235 10 56 33 7.5

3 95% 2,685 10,373 13,058 354 21 23 56 9.3

4 98% 2,943 10,234 13,177 236 57 1 43 16.8

South (Rest of Country)

0 80% 1,614 6,829 8,443 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,182 6,192 8,374 5 47 24 29 23.5

2 92% 2,244 6,078 8,322 41 47 20 33 21.0

3 95% 2,384 5,917 8,301 57 55 8 37 20.2

4 98% 2,661 5,848 8,509 (151) 71 0 28 28.1

### 8

- D

- 3 Table 8

- D.2.2 Manufactured Home Gas Furnaces, High Economic Growth

Efficiency

Level AFUE Life

- Cycle Cost

2009$ Life

- Cycle Cost Savings

2009$ Median

Payback

Period

years Installed

Cost Discounted

Operating

Cost LCC Average

Savings

2009$ % of Households that

Experience

Net

Cost No

Impact Net

Benefit

Nation

0 80% 1,432 12,171 13,603 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,040 11,098 13,138 421 42 10 48 10.4

2 92% 2,248 10,881 13,129 429 46 8 47 11.4

3 96 % 2,540 10,473 13,013 540 49 4 48 11.7

North

0 80% 1,488 13,560 15,047 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,112 12,434 14,546 456 42 10 48 10.5

2 92% 2,318 12,191 14,508 489 45 8 47 11.2

3 96 % 2,611 11,734 14,345 647 47 3 49 11.3

South (Rest of Country)

0 80% 1,340 11,828 13,168 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 1,916 10,706 12,622 387 43 10 48 10.2

2 92% 2,124 10,495 12,620 371 46 8 46 11.6

3 96 % 2,415 10,100 12,514 438 50 4 46 12.2



### Table 8

- D.2.3 Oil

- Fired Furnaces, High Economic Growth

Efficiency

Level AFUE Life

- Cycle Cost

2009$ Life

- Cycle Cost Savings

2009$ Median

Payback

Period

years Installed

Cost Discounted

Operating

Cost LCC Average

Savings

2009$ % of Households that

Experience

Net

Cost No

Impact Net

Benefit

0 80% 3,008 31,959 34,967 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 3,157 31,598 34,755 23 10 58 32 1.0

2 92% 3,394 31,246 34,640 7 24 39 37 1.8

3 95% 3,622 30,902 34,524 15 34 33 33 19.2

4 98% 4,810 29,235 34,045 490 47 1 52 17.2

### 8

- D

- 4 8

- D.3 LOW ECONOMIC GROWTH RESULTS

Table 8

- D.3.1 Non

- Weatherized Gas Furnaces, Low Economic Growth

Efficiency

Level AFUE Life

- Cycle Cost

2009$ Life

- Cycle Cost Savings

2009$ Median

Payback

Period

years Installed

Cost Discounted

Operating

Cost LCC Average

Savings

2009$ % of Households that

Experience

Net

Cost No

Impact Net

Benefit

Nation

0 80% 1,786 9,061 10,846 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,357 8,182 10,538 67 26 52 22 16.2

2 92% 2,419 8,025 10,444 112 27 42 31 12.1

3 95% 2,564 7,803 10,367 170 38 17 45 12.2

4 98% 2,830 7,702 10,532 5 66 0 34 20.8

North

0 80% 1,901 10,935 12,836 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,474 9,856 12,330 136 10 71 18 10.5

2 92% 2,536 9,664 12,200 192 12 56 32 8.0

3 95% 2,685 9,391 12,075 287 24 23 53 9.8

4 98% 2,943 9,267 12,210 154 61 1 39 17.6

South (Rest of Country)

0 80% 1,614 6,265 7,879 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,182 5,685 7,867 (35) 49 24 27 24.7

2 92% 2,244 5,581 7,825 (7) 50 20 30 21.9

3 95% 2,384 5,435 7,819 (5) 58 8 34 21.1

4 98% 2,661 5,369 8,031 (216) 74 0 26 29.8

### 8

- D

- 5 Table 8

- D.3.2 Manufactured Home Gas Furnaces, Low Economic Growth

Efficiency

Level AFUE Life

- Cycle Cost

2009$ Life

- Cycle Cost Savings

2009$ Median

Payback

Period

years Installed

Cost Discounted

Operating

Cost LCC Average

Savings

2009$ % of Households that

Experience

Net

Cost No

Impact Net

Benefit

Nation

0 80% 1,432 11,339 12,771 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,040 10,337 12,377 356 45 10 46 10.8

2 92% 2,248 10,135 12,383 350 48 8 44 11.9

3 96 % 2,540 9,756 12,297 434 51 4 45 12.2

North

0 80% 1,488 12,560 14,048 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 2,112 11,514 13,626 383 45 10 45 11.0

2 92% 2,318 11,290 13,607 400 48 8 45 11.7

3 96 % 2,611 10,868 13,479 524 50 3 46 11.8

South (Rest of Country)

0 80% 1,340 11,107 12,447 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 1,916 10,052 11,968 330 44 10 46 10.6

2 92% 2,124 9,854 11,979 303 48 8 44 12.1

3 96 % 2,415 9,484 11,899 348 52 4 44 12.7



### Table 8

- D.3.3 Oil

- Fired Furnaces, Low Economic Growth

Efficiency

Level AFUE Life

- Cycle Cost

2009$ Life

- Cycle Cost Savings

2009$ Median

Payback

Period

years Installed

Cost Discounted

Operating

Cost LCC Average

Savings

2009$ % of Households that

Experience

Net

Cost No

Impact Net

Benefit

0 80% 3,008 28,940 31,949 n/a 0 % 100 % 0 % n/a

1 90% 3,157 28,615 31,772 8 10 58 32 1.0

2 92% 3,394 28,297 31,691 (29) 25 39 37 1.9

3 95% 3,622 27,987 31,608 (43) 35 33 32 20.4

4 98% 4,810 26,658 31,468 98 54 1 45 19.2

### 8

- D

- 6 REFERENCES

1. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to

2035 , 2010. Washington, DC. Report No. DOE/EIA

- 0383(2010).

< http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/ >