A5-23

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Figure 5.2-17. GNOME Modeled 10 day,

2000 bbl oil spill scenario for platform Gail

(depicted by “+”), located in the center of the

Channel near its eastern entrance, during a

convergent flow regime and a 7 m/s NW wind.

GNOME model output indicates that of 2000 bbl

released: 410 bbl beach, 964 bbl evaporate or are

dispersed, 366 bbl are still floating, and 260 bbl have

moved out of the model domain heading south to

southeast offshore of the Southern California Bight.

Appendix Figure 5.2-18. GNOME Modeled 7 hour,

2000 bbl oil spill scenario for platform Gail (depicted

by “+”), located in the center of the Channel near its

eastern entrance, during an upwelling flow regime

and a 1.5 m/s NW wind. GNOME model output

indicates that of 2000 bbl released: 0 bbl beach, 148

bbl evaporate or are dispersed, 160 bbl are still

floating, and 1692 bbl have moved out of the model

domain heading southeast out of the eastern Santa

Barbara Channel entrance and along the southern

California coastline. After 3 and 10 days, the

GNOME model gives the same output of 150 bbl of oil

evaporated and dispersed and 1850 bbl out of the

model domain heading southeast out of the Santa

Barbara Channel by way of its eastern entrance and

along the southern California coastline.

Appendix Figure 5.2-19. MMS OSRA Model output

for a 10 day event at platform Gail during the

winter season. The boxes are U. S. Geological

Survey 7.5 Minute Quad series maps presenting the

calculated probabilities (in percentages) of oil

contact with the shoreline contained within each

map.

Appendix Figure 5.2-20. MMS OSRA Model output

for a 10 day event at platform Gail during the

spring season. The boxes are U. S. Geological

Survey 7.5 Minute Quad series maps presenting the

calculated probabilities (in percentages) of oil

contact with the shoreline contained within each

map.
A5-24

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

Appendix Figure 5.2-21. MMS OSRA Model output

for a 10 day event at platform Gail during the

summer season. The boxes are U. S. Geological

Survey 7.5 Minute Quad series maps presenting the

calculated probabilities (in percentages) of oil

contact with the shoreline contained within each

map.

Appendix Figure 5.2-22. MMS OSRA Model output

for a 10 day event at platform Gail during the fall

season. The boxes are U. S. Geological Survey 7.5

Minute Quad series maps presenting the calculated

probabilities (in percentages) of oil contact with

the shoreline contained within each map.

Appendix Figure 5.2-23. (b). Free-floating drifter

tracks from April 1998 deployment in the Santa

Maria Basin primarily depicting the upwelling

flow regime. Note that many drifters traveled

southeast through the Santa Barbara

Channel to get into the southern portion of the

Southern California Bight (http://wwwccs.ucsd.edu/olspill/ - click “Interactive Drifter

Track Plotting”).

Appendix Figure 5.2-23. (a). Free-floating drifter

tracks from March 1995 deployment in the Santa

Barbara Channel primarily depicting the

upwelling flow regime (http://www-ccs.ucsd.edu/

olspill/ - click “Interactive Drifter Track

Plotting”).
A5-25

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Figure 5.2-24. (a). Free-floating drifter

tracks from September 1994 deployment primarily

in the Santa Barbara Channel depicting the

“cyclonic,” also called “convergent,” flow regime

(http://www-ccs.ucsd.edu/olspill/ - click “Interactive

Drifter Track Plotting”).

Appendix Figure 5.2-24. (b). Enlargement of Santa

Barbara Channel portion of Appendix Figure 5.2-

24 (a): “cyclonic,” also called “convergent,” flow

regime (http://www-ccs.ucsd.edu/olspill/ - click

“Interactive Drifter Track Plotting”).

Appendix Figure 5.2-25. (a). Free-floating drifter

tracks from December 1996 deployment in the

Santa Barbara Channel depicting the “relaxation”

flow regime (http://www-ccs.ucsd.edu/olspill/ - click

“Interactive Drifter Track Plotting”).

Appendix Figure 5.2-25. (b). Free-floating drifter

tracks from the November 1997 deployment in both

the Santa Barbara Channel and the Santa Maria

Basin depicting the “relaxation” flow regime

(http://www-ccs.ucsd.edu/olspill/ - click “Interactive

Drifter Track Plotting”).
A5-26

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

482-924 bbl of oil will continue to float, and 8-180 bbl

of oil will continue to move north in the SMB or south

offshore the western SBC entrance to the SCB and

out of the model domain.

The 3-day Convergent flow regime scenario indicates that 192 bbl of oil will beach at Carpenteria,

Santa Barbara, Gaviota, and Ventura. Additionally,

794 bbl of oil will weather, 1014 bbl of oil will continue to float, and 0 bbl will travel off the model domain. The 10-day Convergent flow scenario indicates

that 418 bbl of oil will beach on San Miguel, Santa

Rosa, and Santa Cruz Islands, and at Carpenteria on

the SBC mainland. Additionally, 956 bbl of oil will

weather, 366 bbl of oil will continue to float, and 260

bbl of oil will travel south, offshore of the western

SBC entrance into the SCB and out of the model domain.

The 3-day and 10-day Upwelling flow regime scenarios give the same results: 0 bbl of oil will beach,

148 bbl of oil will weather, 0 bbl of oil will continue to

float, and 1852 bbl of oil will travel southeast out of

the eastern SBC entrance into the SCB and off the

model domain. A 7 hour Upwelling flow scenario indicates that 0 bbl of oil will beach, 146 bbl of oil will

weather, 162 bbl of oil will continue to float, and 1692

bbl of oil will travel southeast out of the eastern SBC

entrance into the SCB and out of the model domain.

OSRA Model Results

The winter 3-day OSRA Model run for the Santa

Clara Unit indicates a 1 to 29 percent probability of

an oil spill landfall at the eastern tip of Santa Cruz

Island to Anacapa Island. The winter 10-day run indicates a 1 percent probability of an oil spill landfall

at Pt. Hueneme, Coal Oil Pt., Gaviota, Drake on the

SBC mainland, and on the northwestern shore of

Santa Catalina Island. The winter 10-day run also

indicates a 1 to 5 percent probability that the shorelines of Santa Rosa to Santa Cruz Islands will experience contact with spilled oil and a 32 percent probability that Anacapa Island will experience landfall

of spilled oil.

The spring 3-day scenario indicates a 1 percent

probability that spilled oil will contact Port Hueneme.

The spring 10-day scenario indicates a 1 percent probability that Port Hueneme and San Clemente Island

will experience contact with spilled oil. The 10-day

scenario also indicates there will be a 2 and 3 percent

chance that the shorelines of Santa Barbara and Santa

Catalina Islands respectively will experience contact

with spilled oil.

The summer 3-day scenario indicates no shorelines will experience oil spill contact. The summer

10-day scenario indicates there is a 1 to 8 percent probability of an oil spill contacting Pt. Dume to Port

Hueneme.

The fall 3-day scenario indicates a 1 percent

probability of spilled oil landfall at the eastern end of

Santa Cruz Island to Anacapa Island. The fall 10-day

scenario indicates that there is a 1 percent probability of oil spill landfall on the SBC mainland from Coal

Oil Pt. to Pt. Conception. The fall 10-day model run

also indicates a 1 percent chance that spilled oil will

make landfall on Santa Rosa and San Miguel Islands

and a 1 to 5 percent probability that spilled oil will

contact the eastern end of Santa Cruz Island to

Anacapa Island.

APPENDIX 5.2.2 DISCUSSION

As stated in the introduction, there is only a remote probability that an oil spill of 200 bbl or greater

will occur for the proposed delineation well projects.

The probabilities presented in the Oil Spill Trajectory Analysis section are in the conditional context

that a significant oil spill has occurred for the cumulative impact analysis.

For the cumulative impact analysis, the geographical limits of the potentially affected area are

defined by the farthest locations on the California

coastline that could be contacted by oil within 10 days

of a spill event occurring in the area of proposed developed activities. The drifter analysis indicates that

during an extended period of relaxed winds, the extreme northern boundary of the potentially affected

area is Pt. Lobos on the central California coast. The

drifters also indicate that during this same wind condition, the northern limits of the area where contact

with a spill is “most likely” is Ragged Point, which is

further south on the central California coast. Both

the drifter and the OSRA Model analyses indicate that

both the extreme and “most likely” southern boundaries of the potentially affected area coincide at Santa

Catalina Island in the Southern California Bight, and

Palos Verdes on the Southern California mainland.

The analysis indicates that spilled oil from activity in the eastern-most Unit in the SBC, the Santa

Clara Unit, may contact the shoreline as far north as

Point San Luis on the central California coast. The

central California coast is found to be most likely to

be contacted by oil from a spill occurring during a

Relaxation flow regime, which occurs 27 percent of

the time during a year (Section 4.4 Physical Oceanography).

The composite analysis indicates that oil from a

spill occurring anywhere in the SBC may contact either the SBC mainland, the Channel Islands, or both.

The Channel Islands have the highest probability of

contact, according to both models and the drifter data,

with San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands being the

most likely islands contacted by spilled oil. The area

between Goleta Point and Gaviota seems to be the
A5-27

Appendix for Chapter 5

most likely area along the SBC mainland to experience contact with spilled oil. Oil spill contact with

SBC shorelines is most likely during a Convergent or

Upwelling flow regime. These flow regimes occur 31

and 35 percent of the time respectively during the

year. This is because there is strong re-circulation

within the SBC associated with these two flow regimes. During a Convergent flow regime, a spill in

the northern area of the SBC tends to affect the western-most Islands: San Miguel and Santa Rosa a little

more than the others. During an Upwelling flow regime, a spill in the same area will tend to affect the

eastern most Islands: Santa Cruz and Anacapa a little

more than their western neighbors. Purisima Point

to Point Arguello on the central California coast and

San Miguel and Santa Rosa Islands in the SBC are

the most likely areas of shoreline contact with oil

spilled in the Lions Rock Unit during an Upwelling

event.

Spills occurring in the eastern portion of the SBC

(in the Santa Clara Unit) will likely move south and

southeast out of the SBC by way of the eastern SBC

entrance, and into the area offshore of the Santa

Monica Bay-Redondo Beach coastlines in the Southern California Bight. The composite analysis indicates that at times Santa Catalina Island, and to a

lesser extent San Nicolas Island, may be contacted by

a spill occurring in the SBC. This is largely during

the spring when the Upwelling flow regime occurs

most prominently. Additionally, the composite analysis indicates that a spill in the SBC could affect the

southern California shoreline as far south as Palos

Verdes. The probability that spilled oil will continue

south of Santa Catalina Island within a 10 day time

frame is remote.

APPENDIX 5.2.3 SURFACE DRIFTER AND

GNOME MODEL DATA AND ANALYSIS

The free-floating drifter data and the GNOME

Model run data that were summarized in appendix

section 5.2.1 Oil Spill Trajectory Analysis are presented in more detail and in tabular form in this section. This section also contains the full drifter analysis papers entitled: “Surface Drifter Analysis for the

Rocky Point Unit Project Oil Spill Risk Assessment”

and “Surface Drifter Analysis for the Cavern Point

Unit Project Oil Spill Risk Assessment.” The data

and analyses are organized as follows:

• Appendix Table 5.2-3 Santa Barbara Channel Drifters: drifter data from launch points

5,6,7, and 8

• Appendix Table 5.2-4 Santa Maria Basin Drifters: drifter data from launch points 17, 18, 19,

and 20

• Appendix Exhibit 5.2-1 “Surface Drifter

Analsyis for the Rocky Point Unit Project Oil

Spill Risk Assessment”

• Appendix Exhibit 5.2-2 “Surface Drifter

Analsyis for the Cavern Point Unit Project Oil

Spill Risk Assessment”

• Appendix Table 5.2-21. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill

at launch point SMB-A.

• Appendix Table 5.2-22. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil

spill at launch point SMB-A.

• Appendix Table 5.2-23. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill

at Platform Hidalgo.

• Appendix Table 5.2-24. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil

spill at Platform Hidalgo.

• Appendix Table 5.2-25. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill

at Platform Harvest.

• Appendix Table 5.2-26. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil

spill at Platform Harvest.

• Appendix Table 5.2-27. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill

at Platform Hermosa.

• Appendix Table 5.2-28. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil

spill at Platform Hermosa.

• Appendix Table 5.2-29. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill

at Platform Heritage.

• Appendix Table 5.2-30. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil

spill at Platform Heritage.
A5-28

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

• Appendix Table 5.2-31. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill

at Platform Harmony.

• Appendix Table 5.2-32. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil

spill at Platform Harmony.

• Appendix Table 5.2-33. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill

at Platform Hondo.

• Appendix Table 5.2-34. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil

spill at Platform Hondo.

• Appendix Table 5.2-35. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill

at Platform Hillhouse.

• Appendix Table 5.2-36. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil

spill at Platform Hillhouse.

• Appendix Table 5.2-37. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill

at Platform Gail.

• Appendix Table 5.2-38. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil

spill at Platform Gail.
A5-29

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-3. Santa Barbara Channel Drifters: 5,6,7, and 8: drifter data used for

Santa Ynez Unit drifter analysis.

Appendix Table 5.2-4. Santa Maria Basin Drifters: 17, 18, 19, and 20: drifter data used for

Lion Rock Unit drifter analysis.

 Launch Area Direction (Second Area Direction) Second Area(s) of Land

Flow Regime Month/Year N NE NW E W S SE SW Drifter Trajectory Strike Land Strike Locations

Relaxation Nov-97 (3) 1 3 SMB yes/3 Capitan (SBC), Pt Arguello & Pt. Sur north

Relaxation Dec-96 (4) 4 SMB yes/3 Drake (SBC), Cambria, Pt Sur, & Monterey Bay 

Relaxation Oct-95 (1) 4 (3) SMB, SCB yes/3 S Maria River, S Miguel I, & S Nicolas I

Relaxation Nov-94 (2) 4, (1) (2) SMB, SCB yes/2 Pt Sal & Surf

Relaxation Dec-93 3 C1 SMB, SCB Yes/2 S Miguel I & Pt Sal

Relaxation Oct-93 (3) 4 (1) SMB, SCB Yes/1 Lopez Pt

N NE NW E W S SE SW

Cyclonic Nov-99 C1 2 1 SCB Yes/2 S Miguel I & S Cruz I

Cyclonic Jul-98 (1) C1,(1) C1 C1 SMB, SCB Yes/3 S Miguel I, S Rosa I, & S Cruz I

Cyclonic Jul-97 1 C1,(2) 2 SMB, SCB Yes/3 Purisima Pt, S Rosa I, & S Cruz I

Cyclonic Sep-96 1 2 (2) SCB Yes/1 Capitan (SBC)

Cyclonic Aug-96 1 1, (1) 2, (1) SMB, SCB Yes/2 Coal Oil Pt & South S Cruz I

Cyclonic May-96 2 1, (3) SMB, SCB No

Cyclonic Aug-95 C2,(1) (2) 2 SMB, SCB Yes/2 S Miguel I & South S Rosa I

Cyclonic Jul-95 2 1 (2) 1 SBC Yes/2 Gaviota & Drake

Cyclonic Sep-94 (1) 1 C1 C2,(1) SMB Yes/3 Purisima Pt (SMB),Coal Oil Pt & Sea Cliff (SBC)

Cyclonic Jul-93 2,(2) 1,(3) 1 SMB, SCB Yes/2 S Rosa I

N NE NW E W S SE SW

Upwelling Mar-99 (1) C1,1 (2) C2 SMB, SCB Yes/2 Pismo Beach (SMB) & Anacapa I (SBC)

Upwelling Mar-97 C1 1(1) C2(1) SCB Yes/4 S Miguel I, S Barbara, Ventura, & Pt Mugu

Upwelling Jan-96 2 C1,(4) C1 SCB Yes/1 S Cruz I

Upwelling May-95 (4) C3,1 SCB Yes/1 South S Cruz I

Upwelling Mar-95 1 3,(3) SCB Yes/1 South S Rosa I

Upwelling Jan-95 C2,(1) (1) C2,(1) SCB Yes/1 South S Cruz I

Upwelling Jun-94 C2,(1) (2) 2, (1) SCB Yes/1 Santa Monica

Upwelling Apr-94 1 C2, 1 (1) SCB Yes/4 Coal Oil Pt, Oxnard, S Cruz I, & Palos Verdes 

Upwelling Feb-94 1 3, (3) SCB Yes/2 S Barbara & Anacapa I

Upwelling May-93 1,C1 2(3) SCB Yes/2 S Cruz I & Redondo Beach

The SBC is the launch area for drifters 5, 6, 7, and 8.

Santa Maria Basin Drifters: 17, 18, 19, and 20

 Launch Area Direction (Second Area Direction) Second Area(s) of Land

Flow Regime Month/Year N NE NW E W S SE SW Drifter Trajectory Strike Land Strike Locations

Relaxation Sep-99 2 2 (1) W SCB Yes/2 San Simeon Pt & Pt Sal

Relaxation Nov-97 4 Yes/3 Pt Buchon, Pt Sal, & Pt Sur

Relaxation Dec-96 4 Yes/4 Pt Sur, Monterey Bay

Relaxation Sep-96 4 (2) W SCB Yes/1 Estero Bay

Relaxation Jan-96 2 2,(1) (1) W SCB Yes/2 Estero Bay & Pt Sal

N NE NW E W S SE SW

Cyclonic Nov-99 4 (2) (2) SBC, W SCB Yes/2 Pt Conception & S Miguel I

Cyclonic Oct-98 C1 2 (2) W SCB No

Cyclonic Aug-96 4 (4) W SCB Yes/1 Pt Sal

Cyclonic May-96 4 (4) W SCB No

N NE NW E W S SE SW

Upwelling Mar-99 1 2(3) W SCB Yes/2 Pt Buchon & Pt Sal

Upwelling Jul-98 C3, 1 W SCB No

Upwelling Apr-98 3 1,(4) SCB Yes/2 Santa Monica Bay & San Clemente Island

Upwelling Mar-97 3 1 (1) W SCB Yes/3 Estero Bay & Pismo Beach

The SMB is the launch area for drifters 17, 18, 19, and 20.
A5-30

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

APPENDIX EXHIBIT 5.2-1:

SURFACE DRIFTER ANALYSIS FOR THE

ROCKY POINT UNIT PROJECT OIL SPILL

RISK ASSESSMENT

David R. Browne, MMS

This surface drifter analysis is presented along

with the MMS OSRA Model results as part of the best

available information regarding oil spill risk analysis

for the Rocky Point Unit Project. A comparison between the two analyses will be made in the discussion

section.

As part of the Santa Barbara Channel-Santa

Maria Basin Circulation (SBC-SMBC) Study conducted by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography,

29 drifter deployments were conducted over a 6 - year

period. A “drifter” is a free floating drifting buoy

drogued to follow the top 1 meter of the water column. Most deployments consisted of launching drifters at 12 locations within the Santa Barbara Channel

(SBC) or 12 locations in the Santa Maria Basin (SMB).

There were also deployments where drifters were

launched at all 24 locations.

Trajectories of drifters launched from four locations in the proximity of the Rocky Point area (Deployments Sites 12, 13, 14, and 15, Figure D.1) were

examined, described (Table D.1), and categorized according to dominant/effective direction, dominant/effective direction by season, final direction, and

whether shoreline contact was made. Examination of

all drifter tracks advecting through the Rocky Point

Appendix Figure 5.2-26. Figure D.1 of Appendix

Exhibit 5.2-1.

Appendix Table 5.2-6. Table D1 for drifter

locations 13 and 14 of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-1.

Appendix Table 5.2-5. Table D1 for drifter location

12 of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-1.

Appendix Table 5.2-7. Table D1 for drifter location

15 of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-1.

Table D.1. Rocky Point Drifter Analysis Trajectory Descriptions

Launch Flow land 

Point Regime Month/Year Direction/Path Description DDIR* Strike Where

12 Cyclonic/Upwelling Nov. 1999 South, through SR/SCI pass S no

12 Relaxation/ ? Sep. 1999 wOWC, north, south (few data) N no

12 Cyclonic/Upwelling Mar. 1999 wOWC,eIWC, s thr SM/SRI pass S yes North coast San Miguel I 

12 Cyclonic/Upwelling Oct. 1998 wOWC, turns s W no

12 Cyclonic Jul. 1998 South OWC S no

12 Upwelling - Flow East Apr. 1998 seOEC, se then e E yes S. Catalina I. then Hunt. Beach

12 Relaxation Nov. 1997 wOWC, north N near Pt. Buchon

12 Cyclonic/Relaxation Jul. 1997 northwest N yes west Pt. Conception

12 Upwelling Mar. 1997 s, wOWC, eddy, s W no

12 Relaxation Dec. 1996 no data, but drifter 7 w th 12, w, n N near Pt. Piedras Blancas

12 Relaxation/Cyclonic Sep. 1996 swOWC, then se S no

12 Cyclonic Aug. 1996 swOWC, then s S no

12 Cyclonic May. 1996 nwOWC N yes Pt. Arguello

12 Relaxation - Upwelling Transition Jan. 1996 West OWC/ Northwest/Southwest W no

12 Cyclonic/Relaxation Oct. 1995 sOWC/SE twds Huntington Beach S near Long Beach - Huntington Beach

12 Cyclonic/Upwelling Aug. 1996 South S yes Northwest tip of San Miguel I.

12 Cyclonic OWC July. 1995 Northwest N yes Pt. Arguello

12 Upwelling May. 1995 South - Bad Data - infrequent reporting X no

12 Upwelling Mar. 1995 S thru SR/SCI - SRI south shore then S S yes SE shore of Santa Rosa I

12 Upwelling then Relaxation Jan. 1995 S then Eddy then S S no

12 Cyclonic Nov. 1994 W-OWC then north to Pt. Sal N yes Pt. Sal

12 Cyclonic Sep. 1994 S/W-OWC, then W, then S W no

12 Cyclonic then Upwelling Jun. 1994 SW-OWC, then S S no

12 Upwelling Apr. 1994 SE-OEC, caught in 2 SCB eddys E near Northeast shore Anacapa I. 

12 Upwelling Feb. 1994 NW then S-OWC, South N near Pt. Conception & Pt. Arguello

12 Relaxation Dec. 1993 NW-OWC to Pt. San Luis, then S, then N N near Pt. San Luis

12, 7** Relaxation Oct. 1993 12 no data/ 7 eddy then W-OWC,SW,SE W near Islands offshore San Diego

6** Relaxation Oct. 1993 W-OWC then north N no

12 Cyclonic-Relaxation July. 1993 W-OWC/NW/South W no

12 Upwelling May. 1993 W/S-OWC, SW then SE S no

*DDIR means Dominant Direction

** Trajectory data not substitued for launch point 12 in Rocky Point Drifter Analysis Discussion

Table D.1. Rocky Point Drifter Analysis Trajectory Descriptions - Continued

Launch Flow land 

Point Regime Month/Year Direction/Path Description DDIR Strike Where

13 Cyclonic/Upwelling Nov. 1999 North to Pt. Arguello N yes Pt. Arguello

13 Relaxation/ ? Sep. 1999 North to Pt. Arguello then S-OWC N yes Pt. Arguello

13 Cyclonic/Upwelling Mar. 1999 S then E to SCI, E-OEC, SE to S.Catl I E yes N coast SCI & N Coast S. Catalina I.

13 Cyclonic/Upwelling Oct. 1998 South, West, then South - Never in SBC W no

13 Cyclonic Jul. 1998 West-Southwest then North N no

13 Upwelling - Flow East Apr. 1998 SE to mid SBC, then W to Pt.C then Pt.A N yes Near Pt. Conception & hits N. Pt. Arguello

13 Relaxation Nov. 1997 SE to Jalama area (between Pt. C & Pt. A E yes Jalama area

13 Cyclonic/Relaxation Jul. 1997 NW, N, S, then W, then S N no

13 Upwelling Mar. 1997 NW, SW, then S W no

13 Relaxation Dec. 1996 N, SE, N then Pt. Estero, then W, then N N yes Pt. Arguello & Pt. Estero

13 Relaxation/Cyclonic Sep. 1996 no apparent data X no

13 Cyclonic Aug. 1996 NW then SW then South W no

13 Cyclonic May. 1996 SW then S S no

13 Transition-Relax/Upwell Jan. 1996 no apparent data X

14 Cyclonic/Upwelling Nov. 1999 N to S to N Coast of SRI S yes N Coast of Santa Rosa Island

14 Relaxation/ ? Sep. 1999 N to S N near Pt. Arguello

14 Cyclonic/Upwelling Mar. 1999 Eddy @ WE of SBC then S S no

14 Cyclonic/Upwelling Oct. 1998 NE to Pt Arguello then SW X near Pt. Arguello

14 Cyclonic Jul. 1998 SW then NW then S W no

14 Upwelling - Flow East Apr. 1998 SE into SBC then S-OEC E no

14 Relaxation Nov. 1997 N then W N no

14 Cyclonic/Relaxation Jul. 1997 W then S W no

14 Upwelling Mar. 1997 N then S S no

14 Relaxation Dec. 1996 N then NW N no

14 Relaxation/Cyclonic Sep. 1996 NW then SW then South N no

14 Cyclonic Aug. 1996 NW then SW then South W no

14 Cyclonic May. 1996 SW then S S no

14 Transition-Relax/Upwell Jan. 1996 W then N W no

*DDIR means Dominant Direction

Table D.1. Rocky Point Drifter Analysis Trajectory Descriptions - Continued

Launch Flow land 

Point Regime Month/Year Direction/Path Description DDIR* Strike Where

15 Cyclonic/Upwelling Nov. 1999 N then SE into SBC, then thru SMI & SRI S near N. Coast of San Miguel

15 Relaxation/ ? Sep. 1999 N then S N near Pt. Arguello

15 Cyclonic/Upwelling Mar. 1999 S then E into SBC, then W then S E no

15 Cyclonic/Upwelling Oct. 1998 NW then SW then S W no

15 Cyclonic Jul. 1998 S S no

15 Upwelling - Flow East Apr. 1998 SE into SBC circles SCI-SRI, N intoSBC S yes NSRI, then NSCI, then SSRI 

15 Relaxation Nov. 1997 N along Coast N no

15 Cyclonic/Relaxation Jul. 1997 W, then Eddy N, then W W no

15 Upwelling Mar. 1997 NW then SW then S W no

15 Relaxation Dec. 1996 No data X

15 Relaxation/Cyclonic Sep. 1996 SW to SE W no

15 Cyclonic Aug. 1996 W, then S W no

15 Cyclonic May. 1996 S S no

15 Transition-Relax/Upwell Jan. 1996 W, S, N, E but not into SBC, then N W no

*DDIR means Dominant Direction
A5-31

Appendix for Chapter 5

area, regardless of their origin, is deferred for later

analysis. If no trajectory data existed for a launch

point during a particular deployment, no attempt was

made to fill that data break with trajectory data from

another drifter launch point. There were a total of

65 successful drifter launches from all four locations

during the 6 years of deployments. There were 27

successful launches at one location, 12 successful

launches at another, and 13 at each of the other two

launch points.

Non-Seasonal Analysis

The dominant/effective direction of a drifter trajectory is defined as the direction the drifter traveled

in the proximity of the SBC and SMB area, or its direction prior to its contact (or near contact) with a

shoreline. When looking at the totals over all deployments (Table D.2), irrespective of season or flow regime, the tendency for a drifter to travel north, west,

or south is about even with a slight edge to the northerly direction (around Points Conception and Arguello

and up the central California coast) at 32.3 percent of

all drifter trajectories. The southerly direction was

second in dominance with 30.8 percent of all trajectories, and the west was third with 27.7 percent of all

trajectories. The tendency to go east accounted for

9.2 percent of all trajectories.

Drifters that went north were twice as likely to

strike the shoreline as those that went south. Two

thirds of the drifters that traveled north made contact with the shoreline, whereas only one third of the

drifters travelling south experienced the same fate.

Two thirds of the drifters traveling east made contact with the shoreline. None of the drifters traveling west ever made contact with land, even after becoming entrained in the equatorward California Current.

When looking at the final direction of all drifter

trajectories (Table D.3), again irrespective of season

or flow regime, the California Current system comes

into play with a clear dominance in direction to the

south at 66.2 percent of all trajectories. The north is

second at 26.2 percent of all trajectories, then the west

at 4.6 percent and finally the east at 3.1 percent. Since

all trajectories represent 40 days of transmitting data,

the category of “final direction” of free floating surface drifters is probably the least important to oil spill

trajectory. The effect of weathering on oil makes the

first 10 days of the oil spill trajectory the most important in a risk analysis.

In looking at drifter contact with the shoreline,

a drifter can contact the shore without necessarily

beaching there. A drifter can, and usually does, travel

offshore after making contact with land to yet a new

fate. This analysis limits the definition of shoreline

contact of a drifter to first contact with a beach. First

contact means the first location at which a drifter

made actual contact with the shoreline or was close

enough that, if it were oil, oil spill response experts

and the public alike would consider it a land strike.

For the purposes of comparing shoreline contacts in

the north versus those in the south (Table D.4), north

is defined as the shoreline from Pt. Conception north.

South is defined as all shoreline areas south and east

of Pt. Conception. The results of this analysis are

that 23.1 percent of all trajectories made shoreline

contact in the north as opposed to 15.4 percent of all

trajectories making shoreline contact to the south. In

other words, 60 percent of all drifters launched from

the Rocky Point area that contacted the shoreline,

made landfall along the central California coast from

Pt. Conception northward.

Seasonal Analysis

The seasonal organization of months matches

the seasonal synoptic current maps provided to the

MMS from the SBC-SMBC Study as input to MMS’s

OSRA Model. These seasonal current maps are statistical representations of both drifter current data

Appendix Table 5.2-8. Table D2, D3, and D4 of

Appendix Exhibit 5.2-1.

Non-Seasonal Analysis

Table D.2. Rocky Point Drifter Analysis - Dominant/Effective Direction

( number in "()" indicates number of land strikes)

Launch Pts. North South West East No. Traject

12 9 (8) 11 (4) 5 (0) 2 (2) 27

13 6 (4) 1 (0) 3 (0) 2 (2) 12

14 4 (1) 4 (1) 4 (0) 1 (0) 13

15 2 (1) 4 (2) 6 (0) 1 (0) 13

Totals 21 (14) 20 (7) 18 (0) 6 (4) 65

Ratio 21/65 20/65 18/65 6/65

Percentage 32.30% 30.80% 27.70% 9.20%

Table D.3. Rocky Point Drifter Analysis - Final Directions

Launch Pts. North South West East No. Traject

12 8 17 1 1 27

13 5 6 0 1 12

14 2 10 1 0 13

15 2 10 1 0 13

Totals 17 43 3 2 65

Ratio 17/65 43/65 3/65 2/65

Percentage 26.20% 66.20% 4.60% 3.10%

Table D.4. Rocky Pont Drifter Analysis - Shoreline Contact, North vs. South

Launch Pts. North/Hit North/Near North/Comp South/Hit South/Near South/Comp No. Traject

12 5 3 8 4 2 6 27

13 5 0 5 1 0 1 12

14 0 1 1 1 0 1 13

15 0 1 1 0 2 2 13

Total 10 5 15 6 4 10 65

Comp Ratio 15/65 10/65

Percentage 23.10% 15.40%
A5-32

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

and current data obtained from moorings that were

deployed as part of the study’s field program. Thus,

to provide consistency, the 6 years of drifter deployments are grouped according to their months of deployment into the same seasons as defined for the

OSRA Model.

Spring Season (March – May): There were 19

drifters successfully launched from the four launch

points in the proximity of Rocky Point during the

spring (Table D.5). Drifters tended to go south 47.4

percent of the time in the spring, with 33.3 percent

of those drifters making shoreline contact. The

second most dominant direction was east claiming

26.3 percent of the trajectories with a 60-percent

shoreline contact rate. Drifters moved toward the

west 15.8 percent of the time, with no drifters

making contact with a beach. Drifters moved to the

north only 10.5 percent of the time, but with a 100-

percent shoreline contact rate.

Summer Season (June – August): There were 16

drifters successfully launched from the proximity of

Rocky Point during the summer (Table D.5). The

west is the most dominant direction for drifter

trajectory in the summer, accounting for 43.8

percent of the total, but with no shoreline contact.

The second most frequent direction for drifter

movement was the south, with 31.25 percent of

drifter trajectory and a shoreline contact rate of 20

percent. Drifters advected to the north 25 percent

of the time with a 50-percent shoreline contact rate.

No drifters moved to the east during the summer.

Fall Season (September – November):

There were 21 drifters successfully launched from the

four launch points in the proximity of Rocky Point

during the fall (Table D.6). Drifters tended to go to

the north 47.6 percent of the time, with 60 percent of

them making contact with the shoreline. Another 23.8

percent of the launches made during this season went

south, making contact with the shoreline 60 percent

of the time. Drifter trajectories toward the west accounted for another 23.8 percent of the total number

of launches, but with no shoreline contacts. Only one

drifter launched (4.8 percent of the trajectories) during the fall advected to the east; this drifter also made

shoreline contact.

Winter Season (December – February):

There were 9 drifters successfully launched from the

proximity of Rocky Point during the winter (Table

D.6). Drifters tended to go north 55.6 percent of the

time with an 80-percent shoreline contact rate. Drifters advected south only 11.1 percent of the time with

no shoreline contact. The westerly direction was the

second most prominent direction for drifter movement

during the winter, claiming 33.3 percent of the drifters launched, again with none making shoreline contact. There were no drifter trajectories toward the

east during the winter.

Discussion

The drifter data and analysis above provide a

measure of the likelihood that a drifter, and therefore probably a surface floating pollutant, will be

transported in a certain direction. Because of the

small number of drifter observations, the calculated

percentage (probability) that a drifter will move in a

certain direction, or make contact with a shoreline

Seasonal Analysis

Table D.5. Rocky Point - Dominant Direction (Including Shoreline Contact) in Spring and Summer Seasons

Spring Season

Launch Pts. North N. Strike South S. Strike West W. Strike East E. Strike Launches

12 1 1 3 2 1 0 2 2 7

13 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 4

14 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 4

15 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 4

Total 2 2 9 3 3 0 5 3 19

Ratio 2/19 9/19 3/19 5/19

Percentage 10.50% 47.40% 15.80% 26.30%

Summer Season

Launch Pts. North N. Strike South S. Strike West W. Strike East E. Strike Launches

12 2 2 4 1 1 0 0 0 7

13 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3

14 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3

15 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 3

Total 4 2 5 1 7 0 0 0 16

Ratio 4/16 5/16 7/16 0

Percentage 25.00% 31.25% 43.80% 0.00%

Seasonal Analysis 

Table D.6. Rocky Point - Dominant Direction (Including Shoreline Contact) in Fall and Winter Seasons

Fall Season

Launch Pts. North N. Strike South S. Strike West W. Strike East E. Strike Launches

12 3 2 3 1 2 0 0 0 8

13 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 4

14 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 4

15 2 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 5

Total 10 6 5 3 5 0 1 1 21

Ratio 10/21 5/21 5/21 1/21

Percentage 47.60% 23.80% 23.80% 4.80%

Winter Season

Launch Pts. North N. Strike South S. Strike West W. Strike East E. Strike Launches

12 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 5

13 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1

14 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2

15 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

Total 5 4 1 0 3 0 0 0 9

Ratio 5/9 1/9 3/9 0

Percentage 55.60% 11.10% 33.30% 0.00%

Appendix Table 5.2-9. Table D5 of Appendix

Exhibit 5.2-1.

Appendix Table 5.2-10. Table D6 of Appendix

Exhibit 5.2-1.
A5-33

Appendix for Chapter 5

should be viewed cautiously. However, based on the

drifter data it can be surmised that a surface floating

pollutant originating in the Rocky Point area has an

equal likelihood of moving north, west, or south. If

the pollutant were to move in the northerly, southerly, or easterly direction, then there also would be a

reasonable possibility of shoreline contact. A surface

pollutant spill originating from Rocky Point would be

likely to move north or west during the fall and winter, south and east in the spring, and west and south

in the summer. This is because the relaxation and

cyclonic circulation flow regimes are dominant in the

fall and winter, the upwelling circulation flow regime

is dominant in the spring, and the cyclonic circulation flow regime is dominant in the summer. The

uncertainty of direction of movement of a drifter (or

a surface pollutant) during a particular season is due

to the fact that all of these oceanic flow regimes (including their transition states) characteristic of the

SBC-SMB area can occur during any time of the year.

The surface drifter trajectories emanating from

the Rocky Point Unit Project area vary with the trajectories calculated for that area by the MMS Oil Spill

Risk Analysis (OSRA) model. MMS OSRA model trajectories make very few shoreline contacts north of

Pt. Arguello throughout the entire year. One of the

reasons for this is that the OSRA model is heavily

dependent on wind fields in performing its trajectory

calculations and therefore, its probabilities of shoreline contact. It calculates numerous trajectories from

the same launch point by varying the wind over a static

ocean current field and applying the deep ocean 3.5-

percent wind rule to account for the supposed movement of oil over the surface layer of the water. The

prevailing wind characteristic of the SBC-SMB area

is from the northwest. Therefore, the probabilities

computed from this present OSRA model run are

based on oil spill trajectories that tend to be biased

toward the south and southeast relative to the drifter

trajectories. This has produced higher than expected

probabilities of shoreline hits on the north shores of

the Santa Barbara Channel islands, and lower than

expected probabilities of shoreline hits along the central California coast.

Experimental time varying synoptic current

fields representing conditions in the SBC-SMB area

have been developed from both observations and dynamic modeling techniques. Preliminary runs using

these new current fields have produced OSRA model

trajectories more in line with those of the surface drifters. However, the drifter data and the present OSRA

Model calculations both provide important insights.

The drifter analysis is based on actual field observations and provides information on actual surface current flow variability to be considered with the computer-generated results calculated for the SBC-SMB

area by the OSRA Model. Together, the two analyses

present a more complete picture of what may occur

when oil is spilled. Both data sets have been used in

this analysis.

APPENDIX EXHIBIT 5.2-2: SURFACE

DRIFTER ANALYSIS FOR THE CAVERN

POINT UNIT PROJECT OIL SPILL RISK

ASSESSMENT

David R. Browne, MMS

ABSTRACT

Eighty-five drifters were launched from the Cavern Point Unit Project area during a 6-year deployment period. Eighty-two percent of these drifters

made contact with, or were near to, a shoreline.

Drifter data is presented in a number of different categories in order to give an intuitive sense of where

spilled oil would possibly travel and make shoreline

contact. Likely areas of high and low impact from a

large spill occurring in the Cavern Point Unit Project

are discussed. A comparison of this drifter analysis

and the MMS Oil Spill Risk Analysis Model results is

made.

INTRODUCTION

This surface drifter analysis is presented along

with the MMS Oil Spill Risk Analysis (OSRA) Model

results as part of the best available information regarding oil spill risk analysis for the Cavern Point Unit

Project. A comparison between the two analyses will

be made in the discussion section.

As part of the Santa Barbara Channel-Santa

Maria Basin Circulation (SBC-SMBC) Study conducted by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography,

29 drifter deployments were conducted over a 6-year

period. A “drifter” is a free floating drifting buoy

drogued to follow the top 1-meter of the water column. It “consists of a submerged vertical tube, which

houses the electronics and battery. An antenna protrudes from the top of the tube and extends upward

through the surface of the water. Four cloth vanes of

total area: 1.8 square meters are supported on rods

that extend radially from the top and bottom of the

tube. Four flotation elements are attached at the end

of each rod by short lengths of nylon line. The electronics consists of a controller with temperature circuit and transmitter. The transmitter allows the drifters to be located by orbiting satellites using the Argos

system. This system locates the drifters several times

each day, with positional accuracy varying between

150 m and 1000 m. The temperature circuit mea-
A5-34

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

sures hourly averages of sea surface temperature accurate to 0.01 deg C. The drifters are programmed to

run for 40 days after deployment” (Scripps website:

www-ccs.ucsd.edu).

Most deployments consisted of launching drifters at 12 locations within the Santa Barbara Channel

(SBC) or 12 locations in the Santa Maria Basin (SMB).

There were also deployments where drifters were

launched at all 24 locations.

The drifter data and analysis below provide a

measure of the likelihood that a drifter and, therefore, possibly an oil spill, will be transported in a certain direction. Because of the small number of drifter

observations, the calculated percentage (probability)

that a drifter will move in a certain direction, or make

contact with a shoreline, should be viewed with caution.

Trajectories of drifters launched from four locations in the proximity of the Cavern Point area (Deployment Sites 1, 2, 3, and E.CE, Figure 1) were examined, described (Table 1), and categorized according to dominant/effective direction, dominant/effective direction by season, final direction, shoreline contact in major areas, final location, final location by

season, and whether shoreline contact was made. Examination of all drifter tracks advecting through the

Cavern Point area, regardless of their origin, is deferred for later analysis. If no trajectory data existed

for a launch point during a particular deployment, no

attempt was made to fill that data break with trajectory data from another drifter launch point. There

were a total of 85 successful drifter launches from all

four locations during the 6 years of deployments.

There were 31 successful launches at one location, 26

successful launches at another, 24 launches at another

and 4 at the eastern Channel entrance (E.CE).

Shoreline contact will be part of the discussion.

Actual shoreline contact is many times subject to small

scale local environmental events. However, the fact

that a free floating drifter has moved to a certain

coastal region indicates the associated onshore and

offshore resources in that area are in jeopardy should

a real spill occur.

NON-SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The dominant/effective direction of a drifter trajectory is defined as the direction the drifter traveled

in the proximity of the SBC and SMB area, or its direction prior to its contact (or near contact) with a

shoreline. When looking at the totals over all deployments (Table 2), irrespective of season or flow regime,

we see that the tendency is greatest (35.3% of all 85

Appendix Figure 5.2-27. Figure 1 of Appendix

Exhibit 5.2-2.

Table 1. Cavern Point Drifter Analysis Trajectory Descriptions For Launch Point 1

Land

DDN** Flow Regime Month/Year Direction/Path Description DDIR* Strike Where

549 Cyclonic/Upwelling Nov. 1999 SE, OEC, eddies, W SE Yes South Santa Cruz Island

no Relaxation/ ? Sep. 1999 NO DATA ND ND

527 Cyclonic/Upwelling Mar. 1999 N to Carpenteria N Yes Carpenteria

no Cyclonic/Upwelling Oct. 1998 NO DATA ND ND

480 Cyclonic Jul. 1998 W, Cycles, OWC, S W Near Santa Barbara

no Upwelling - Flow East Apr. 1998 NO DATA ND ND

444 Relaxation Nov. 1997 Cycling, NE, Mainland NE Yes Punta Gorda, Pitas Pt., Ventura

410 Cyclonic/Relaxation Jul. 1997 S, Cycles, Chinese Harbor, San Pedro Pt. S Yes C Harbor & S Pedro Pt. of SCI

389 Upwelling Mar. 1997 SE, OEC, SE, cycles in S. Monica Bay SE Yes Redondo Beach, LA

353 Relaxation Dec. 1996 CyclesSouth, W along & near mainland W Yes Pt. Conception

320 Relaxation/Cyclonic Sep. 1996 S then W near mainland shoreline W Yes Coal Oil Pt., El Capitan, Gaviota

296 Cyclonic Aug. 1996 NO DATA ND ND

287 Cyclonic May. 1996 NW to mainland N Yes Loon Pt. - Santa Barbara

254 Relaxation - Upwelling Transition Jan. 1996 W, NE NE Yes Carpenteria

249 Cyclonic/Relaxation Oct. 1995 W, S, Strikes entire N.SCI, N, W, OWC,S S Yes N. SCI

225 Cyclonic/Upwelling Aug. 1995 SE, OEC, strikes Redondo Beach SE Yes Redondo Beach, LA

215 Cyclonic OWC July. 1995 NO DATA ND ND

204 Upwelling May. 1995 NW - tight cycle, near Santa Barbara NW Yes Santa Barbara

182 Upwelling Mar. 1995 SE,Near Pt. Hueneme,SE alng M'nland C SE No

175 Upwelling then Relaxation Jan. 1995 S-OEC, Cycles, N, Strikes near Pt. Dume SE Yes Near Pt. Dume

155 Cyclonic Nov. 1994 W, OWC, S W No

141 Cyclonic Sep. 1994 WNW N Yes Santa Barbara Pt.

129 Cyclonic then Upwelling Jun. 1994 N, E N, E* Yes Carpenteria, Ventura

113 Upwelling Apr. 1994 N N Yes Punta Gorda

102 Upwelling Feb. 1994 SE, OEC SE Yes Laguna Pt.

88 Relaxation Dec. 1993 NE,alng mnlnd,S,crclng AI&SCI,W,OWC NE*,S Near Carpenteria to Pt. Hu'me, NSCI

73 Relaxation Oct. 1993 W, OWC, Near Goleta&Arguello,NW W,NW* Yes Area South of Purisma Pt.

59 Cyclonic-Relaxation July. 1993 SE, OEC, cycles SE/NW - SMSP Basins SE Near Laguna Pt.,Pt. Dume,E. S Cat I

34 Upwelling May. 1993 SE, OEC, SE,SW, SE alng Mainland SE Near E. SNI

* "*" or "DDIR" means Dominant Direction **Drifter Deployment Number

Appendix Table 5.2-11. Table 1 for drifter location

1 of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-2.

Table 1 Cavern Point Drifter Analysis Trajectory Descriptions for Launch Point 2

Flow land 

DDN** Regime Month/Year Direction/Path Description DDIR* Strike Where

550 Cyclonic/Upwelling Nov. 1999 SE, OEC, W, S in W.SCB SE No

no Relaxation/ ? Sep. 1999 No Data ND ND

526 Cyclonic/Upwelling Mar. 1999 W, OWC, NW, S W No

no Cyclonic/Upwelling Oct. 1998 No Data ND ND

479 Cyclonic Jul. 1998 W, Cycles, OWC, W, S W No

no Upwelling - Flow East Apr. 1998 No Data ND ND

443 Relaxation Nov. 1997 W,OWC,NW alng Central California Coast W*/NW Near Pt. Conception

407 Cyclonic/Relaxation Jul. 1997 Cycles, S, NE coast SCI S Yes NE coast SCI

388 Upwelling Mar. 1997 W, S.WCE, SMI, E, N.SRI, S W Near W.SMI & E.SRI

350 Relaxation Dec. 1996 Cycles around LP, E, Strikes mainland E Yes Ventura

321 Relaxation/Cyclonic Sep. 1996 W, OWC, S W No

297 Cyclonic Aug. 1996 W, S, E-near SRI, NE, SE-OEC, S, SE W*/SE Near SRI

286 Cyclonic May. 1996 NE to mainland NE Yes Carpenteria

255/256 Relaxation - Upwelling Transition Jan. 1996 W,Cycles,E,SE,OEC,cycles SM-SP Bsns SE Near Pt.Vicente-Redondo Bch(255 only)

248 Cyclonic/Relaxation Oct. 1995 S, N cycle, W, OWC, SW, SE W Yes NW. SMI

224 Cyclonic/Upwelling Aug. 1995 E, OEC, SE SE No

214 Cyclonic OWC July. 1995 N,Eddies,SW,SE,near NE. SCI,E-OEC,W SE*/W Near NW.SCI, S.SCI, E.Anacapa

202 Upwelling May. 1995 NE - tight cycling NE Yes Pitas Pt. to Ventura

183 Upwelling Mar. 1995 N, near mainland, W, SE, OEC N Near Loon Pt,S.Barbara,Goleta,S.Diego

172/173 Upwelling then Relaxation Jan. 1995 Both-SE,cycling,OEC,173,near Anacapa SE*/S Near Anacapa Island (173 only)

154 Cyclonic Nov. 1994 S, cycle, W S*/W Near N.SCI, Goleta Pt., Gaviota

139/140 Cyclonic Sep. 1994 W,OWC,Eddies,S//W,OWC,S W No

127 Cyclonic then Upwelling Jun. 1994 SW, SE S Near N. SCI

112 Upwelling Apr. 1994 SE then NE to Mainland E*/NE Yes Pitas Pt. to Punta Gorda

100 Upwelling Feb. 1994 SE, OEC SE Near Ventura

85/86 Relaxation Dec. 1993 W,NW,OWC,N along Central CA Coast W,NW* Near Pt.Cncept&Pt.Arguello (86 only)

71 Relaxation Oct. 1993 W, OWC, N along Central CA Coast W/NW* Near Goleta, Pt. Arguello

56/55 Cyclonic-Relaxation July. 1993 56-W,OWC,S//55-W,O SMI/SRI Pass, S W Near W. San Miguel, near E. S.Miguel

35 Upwelling May. 1993 SE, OEC, W near S.Cruz, SE SE Near S. SCI

* "*" or "DDIR" means Dominant Direction **Drifter Deployment Number

Appendix Table 5.2-12. Table 1 for drifter location

2 of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-2.
A5-35

Appendix for Chapter 5

drifters) to travel southeast toward, and out, the eastern Channel entrance. The westerly direction is second at 24.7%, north is third at 14.1%, south is fourth

at 11.8%, and northwest along the central California

coast is fifth at 10.6% . The easterly direction accounts for only 3.5%. A startling statistic is that over

82% of all drifters launched in the Cavern Point area

made landfall or came near a shoreline.

In looking at drifter contact with the shoreline,

a drifter can contact the shore without necessarily

beaching there. A drifter can, and usually does, travel

offshore after making contact with land to yet a new

fate. This analysis limits the definition of shoreline

contact of a drifter to first contact with a beach. First

contact means the first location at which a drifter

made actual contact with the shoreline or was close

enough that, if it were oil, oil spill response experts

and the public alike would consider it a land strike.

Table 7 does present the degree of multiple shoreline

contacts in different areas during a single drifter trajectory.

Table 1 Cavern Point Drifter Analysis Trajectory Descriptions For Launch Point 3

land 

DDN** Flow Regime Month/Year Direction/Path Description DDIR* Strike Where

551 Cyclonic/Upwelling Nov. 1999 SE,nearNE SCI,circlesSCI,reenters CviaW.SCI pass SE*,W Yes near NE SCI & SW. SCI

no Relaxation/ ? Sep. 1999 No Data ND ND

525 Cyclonic/Upwelling Mar. 1999 W,OWC,NW,S W no

no Cyclonic/Upwelling Oct. 1998 No Data ND ND

478 Cyclonic Jul. 1998 Cycle,W,cycles,S,San Miguel I W Yes N. SMI

no Upwelling - Flow East Apr. 1998 No Data ND ND

442 Relaxation Nov. 1997 W, eddies-tightly,OWC,NW along central CA coast W/NW* no

405 Cyclonic/Relaxation Jul. 1997 S to N. SCI S Yes N. SCI

387 Upwelling Mar. 1997 W, cycles near Pt.C, SW, OWC,S W Yes Pt. Conception

348 Relaxation Dec. 1996 W, cycles, W to Pt.C, OWC, NW W/NW* Yes Pt.C,Pismo Bch to Pt.Sal 

no Relaxation/Cyclonic Sep. 1996 No Data ND ND

298 Cyclonic Aug. 1996 SE,near Anacapa I,OEC,SW,S SE near Anacapa I

283 Cyclonic May. 1996 Cycles, E, N,W-Strikes Goleta Pt. N Yes GoletaPt&SantaBarbaraPt

no Relax - Upwell Transition Jan. 1996 No Data ND ND

249 Cyclonic/Relaxation Oct. 1995 S,cycles in Chinese Harbor - SCI, N, W, OWC,S S Yes N. SCI

221 Cyclonic/Upwelling Aug. 1995 SE, near NE. SCI, SE-OEC,S,W,S.SCI,S.SRI SE*,W near N.SCI, S.SCI, S.SRI

212 Cyclonic OWC July. 1995 NE, SE-OEC, S, near San Clemente I SE near N. San Clemente I

201 Upwelling May. 1995 SE-OEC, S, near San Nicolas I SE near San Nicolas I

184 Upwelling Mar. 1995 E,nearW.Anacapa,OEC,WthenS,nearSan Clemente SE near SE San Clemente I

167 Upwelling then Relaxation Jan. 1995 Cycles @LP,W,W eddy,OWC,NW, eddy,NW NW near Purisma Pt. - Pt. Sal

153 Cyclonic Nov. 1994 SE, near NE. SCI, N to Goleta Pt. SE*,N yes NE. SCI & Goleta Pt.

138 Cyclonic Sep. 1994 cycles N & S S Yes N. SCI

126 Cyclonic then Upwelling Jun. 1994 SE, OEC, W(S.SCI), S SE*,W near Anacapa I, S. SCI

109 Upwelling Apr. 1994 SE,OEC,near AnacapaI & N. SCI, Pt. Vicente SE Yes Anacapa,S.SCI,Pt.Vicente

99 Upwelling Feb. 1994 SE, OEC, W, SE SE near N. SCI

84 Relaxation Dec. 1993 W,eddy,S,very near E.SRI,W.SMI,S S near E.SRI, near SMI

69 Relaxation Oct. 1993 Eddies, W, OWC, forms W eddy W no

53 Cyclonic-Relaxation July. 1993 SE SE yes near Anacapa, yes E.SCI

38 Upwelling May. 1993 S, eddies, impacts SCI S Yes Chinese Harbor, SCI

* "*" or "DDIR" means Dominant Direction **Drifter Deployment Number

Appendix Table 5.2-13. Table 1 for drifter location

3 of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-2.

Table 1 Cavern Point Drifter Analysis Trajectory Descriptions - Special Launched Pairs

Launch Estimated Flow land 

Point Regime Month/Year Direction/Path Description DDIR* Strike Where

LP1,393 Cyclonic May-97 W to mainland W Yes Goleta to Coal Oil Pt.

LP1,394 Cyclonic May-97 W to mainland W Yes Goleta to Coal Oil Pt.

117 N/A May-94 Not Pertinent to Cavern Point

118 N/A May-94 Not Pertinent to Cavern Point

ECE, 32 Upwelling Mar-93 SE to North San Diego County coastline SE Yes North San Diego County coastline

ECE,33 Upwelling Mar-93 SE to North San Diego County coastline SE Yes North San Diego County coastline

ECE, 31 Relaxation Jan-93 W to NW to OWCE, N to San Luis Obispo Bay W, NW* Yes San Luis Obispo Bay

ECE, 30 Relaxation Jan-93 W to S of SCI to ESRI, NW to OWC, N to Morro Bay W, NW* Yes E. S. Rosa Island and Morro Bay

Appendix Table 5.2-14. Table 1 for drifter pairs at

locations 1 and E.CE of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-2.

Non-Seasonal Analysis

Table 2 Cavern Point Drifter Analysis - Dominant/Effective Direction

( number in "()" indicates number of land strikes)

Launch Pts. North South West East South East NW,CCACoast Trajectories(Hits)

E.CE 0 0 0 0 2(2) 2(2) 4(4)

1 8(8) 2(2) 6(5) 1(1) 8(7) 1(1) 26(24)

2 3(3) 3(3) 11(6) 2(2) 9(5) 3(2) 31(21)

3 1(1) 5(5) 4(2) 0 11(11) 3(2) 24(21)

Totals 12(12) 10(10) 21(13) 3(3) 30(25) 9(7) 85(70)

Ratio 12//85 10//85 21/85 3//85 30/85 9//85 70/85

Percentage 14.12% 11.76% 24.71% 3.53% 35.29% 10.59% 82.35%

Table 3 Cavern Point Drifter Analysis - Final Directions

Launch Pts. North South West East South East NW,CCACoast Trajectories

E.CE 0 0 0 0 2 2 4

1 6 4 7 1 7 1 26

2 3 11 3 1 9 4 31

3 2 10 2 0 7 3 24

Totals 11 25 12 2 25 10 85

Ratio 11//85 25/85 13/85 2//85 25/85 10//85

Percentage 12.94% 29.41% 15.29% 2.35% 29.41% 11.76%

Appendix Table 5.2-15. Tables 2 and 3 of Appendix

Exhibit 5.2-2.

Non-Seasonal Analysis

Table 4. Cavern Point Drifter Analysis - Shoreline Contact CCAC, CM, and CI&S

Launch Pts. CCACoast CM* CI&S* Total Hits SBC* Trajectories

E.CE 2 0 2 4 1 4

1 1 14 9 24 16 26

2 2 7 12 21 19 31

3 2 2 17 21 16 24

Total 7 23 40 70 52 85

Comp Ratio 7//85 23//85 40/85 70/85 52/85

Percentage 8.24% 27.06% 47.06% 82.35% 61.18%

*CM = Channel Mainland; CI&S = Channel Islands and Shorlines further south; SBC = CM + CI contacts 

Table 5. Cavern Point Drifter Analysis - Final Location

Launch Pts. CCACoast SCBWest SBC SCBCoastal S.SBC I* Trajectories

E.CE 2 0 0 2 0 4

1 1 4 14 6 1 26

2 4 12 7 7 1 31

3 3 9 7 4 1 24

Totals 10 25 28 19 3 85

Ratio 10//85 25/85 28/85 19/85 3//85

Percentage 11.76% 29.41% 35.29% 23.53% 3.53%

*S.SBC I = Southern Santa Barbara Channel Islands Shorelines

Appendix Table 5.2-16. Tables 4 and 5 of Appendix

Exhibit 5.2-2.
A5-36

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

In Table 4 a comparison of the number of drifter

shoreline contacts in each of three main areas is made.

Over 47% of all launches made land strike at the Channel Islands, or at shorelines immediately south in the

Southern California Bight. Over 27% of launches

struck the Channel mainland, and 8.2% of all drifters

launched in the Cavern Point area made land strike

along the central California coast.

When looking at the final direction of all drifter

trajectories (Table 3), again irrespective of season or

flow regime, the south toward the Channel Islands

and the southeast out the eastern Channel entrance

dominated at 29.4% for each direction or a composite

of 58.8% of all drifters. West was the final direction

for 15.3% of all drifters, north toward the mainland

was the final direction for 12.9% of all of the drifters,

northwest along the central California coast was the

final direction for 11.8% of all of the drifters launched,

and the east was the final direction for 2.4% of all the

drifters launched from the Cavern Point area. Since

all trajectories represent 40 days of transmitting data,

the category of “final direction” of free floating surface drifters is probably the least important to oil spill

trajectory. The effect of weathering on oil makes the

first 10 days of the oil spill trajectory the most important in a risk analysis.

Final distribution of the 85 drifters launched

from the Cavern Point area (Table 5) consists of 35.3%

remaining in the SBC, 29.4% exiting the Channel and

finishing their reported trajectory in the western region of the Southern California Bight, 23.5% end their

journey in the coastal region of the Southern California Bight, 11.8% travelled northwest along the central California coast before striking its shoreline or

stop reporting, and 3.6% exit out of the eastern Channel entrance and then go west striking the southern

shorelines of the Channel Islands.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The seasonal organization of months matches

the seasonal synoptic current maps provided to the

MMS from the SBC-SMBC Study as input to MMS’s

OSRA Model. These seasonal current maps are statistical representations of both drifter current data

and current data obtained from moorings that were

deployed as part of the study’s field program. Thus,

to provide consistency, the 6 years of drifter deployments are grouped according to their months of deployment into the same seasons as defined for the

OSRA Model.

There are two major non-local forcing mechanisms affecting the oceanic flows in the SBC-SMB

area. They are the upwelling favorable macroscopic

wind regime (from the northwest along the western

United States coastline) and the poleward alongshore

pressure gradient in the Southern California Bight.

There are also some local forcing mechanisms that

modify the larger flow regime that is set in place by

the relative balance of these two larger scale oceanic

forcing mechanisms. While the dominant flow regime

for each season is discussed, the other flow regimes

characteristic to the SBC-SMB area can occur during

that same season which, in that instance, would dictate the trajectory of spilled oil.

Spring Season (March – May): The dominant

flow regime during the spring season is the upwelling

flow regime. Upwelling favorable winds (from the

northwest) dominate over the poleward alongshore

pressure gradient in the Southern California Bight

causing upwelling along the central California coast

and south and southeastward current flows through

the greater western half of the Channel. Channel

waters flow south through the Channel Island passes

and southeast through the eastern Channel entrance.

There typically remains a remnant of a western current in the northern part of the Channel along the

mainland shoreline.

There were 25 drifters successfully launched

from the four launch points in the proximity of Cavern Point during the spring seasons (Table 6). Drifters tended to go southeast 36.0% of the time in the

spring, with 88.9% of those drifters making shoreline

contact. The second most dominant direction was

north claiming 32.0% of the trajectories with a 100%

shoreline contact rate. Drifters moved toward the

west 24.0% of the time, with 66.6% of those drifters

making contact with a beach. Drifters moved to the

south or east only 4.0% of the time for each direction,

but with a 100% shoreline contact rate. There were

no drifters that moved northwest along the central

California coast during this time period.

Final locations (Table 7) of the free floating drifters consisted of 44.0% in the Santa Barbara Channel

with a 100% shoreline strike rate, 32.0% in the coastal

region of the Southern California Bight with an 87.5%

shoreline strike rate, and 24.0% in the western region of the Southern California Bight with a 0.0%

shoreline strike rate.

Summer Season (June – August): The dominant flow regime during the summer season is the

cyclonic flow regime. The poleward alongshore pressure gradient in the Southern California Bight and

the upwelling favorable winds (from the northwest)

are in balance which causes a cyclonic eddy to be

formed which is at least the size of the western half

of the Santa Barbara Channel.

There were 20 drifters successfully launched

from the proximity of Cavern Point during the summer (Table 6). The southeast is the most dominant

direction for drifter trajectory in the summer, accounting for 45.0% of the total, with 88.9% shoreline contact. The second most frequent direction for drifter

movement was west, with 30.0% of drifter trajectory
A5-37

Appendix for Chapter 5

and a shoreline contact rate of 83.3%. Drifters advected to the south 20.0% and the east 5.0% of the

time both with a 100% shoreline contact rate. No

drifters moved to the north during the summer.

Final locations (Table 7) of the free floating drifters consisted of 35.0% in the Santa Barbara Channel

with a 100% contact rate, 35.0% in the western region of the Southern California Bight with a 0.0% contact rate, 25.0% in the coastal region of the Southern

California Bight with a 60.0% contact rate, and 5.0%

in the region near the southern shorelines of the Channel Islands with a 100% contact rate. No drifters

moved north to the mainland or northwest along the

central California coastline during the summer seasons.

Fall Season (September – November): The

dominant flow regimes for the fall are the relaxation

and cyclonic flow regimes with reasonable representation of the upwelling flow regime. The latter two

have already been described. The relaxation flow regime occurs when there is a “relaxation” of the northwest, upwelling favorable macroscopic winds allowing the poleward alongshore pressure gradient, that

exists in and to the south of the Southern California

Bight, to dominate. The western current flow along

the mainland shoreline in the Santa Barbara Channel and the poleward current along the central California coastline reach their peak magnitudes during

a full relaxation event. There typically exists an eastward flowing current of lesser magnitude along the

northern shorelines of the Channel Islands.

There were 21 drifters successfully launched

from the four launch points in the proximity of Cavern Point during the fall (Table 6). Drifters tended to

go to the west 38.1% of the time, with 37.5% of them

Table 6 Seasonal Analysis: Cavern Point - Dominant Direction and Shoreline Contact in Spring and Summer Seasons

 Spring Season

Launch Pts. N N Strike S S Strike W W Strike E E Strike SE SE Strike NW NW Strike Launches

E.CE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2(2)

1 4 4 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 9(8)

2 3 3 0 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 7(6)

3 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 3 3 0 0 7(6)

Total 8 8 1 1 6 4 1 1 9 8 0 0 25(22)

Ratio 8//25 1//25 6//25 1//25 9//25 0//25

Percentage 32.00% 4.00% 24.00% 4.00% 36.00% 0.00%

 Summer Season

Launch Pts. N N Strike S S Strike W W Strike E E Strike SE SE Strike NW NW Strike Launches

E.CE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(0)

1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 0 5(5)

2 0 0 2 2 4 3 0 0 2 1 0 0 8(6)

3 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 5 5 0 0 7(7)

Total 0 0 4 4 6 5 1 1 9 8 0 0 20(18)

Ratio 0//20 4//20 6//20 1//20 9//20 0

Percentage 0.00% 20.00% 30.00% 5.00% 45.00% 0.00%

Table 6 Seasonal Analysis: Cavern Point - Dominant Direction and Shoreline Contact in Fall and Winter Seasons

 Fall Season

Launch Pts. N N Strike S S Strike W W Strike E E Strike SE SE Strike NW NW Strike Launches

E.CE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(0)

1 2 2 1 1 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 7(6)

2 0 0 1 1 5 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 8(4)

3 0 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 6(4)

Total 2 2 4 4 8 3 0 0 4 3 3 2 21(14)

Ratio 2//21 4//21 8//21 0 4//21 3//21

Percentage 9.52% 19.05% 38.10% 0.00% 19.05% 14.25%

 Winter Season

Launch Pts. N N Strike S S Strike W W Strike E E Strike SE SE Strike NW NW Strike Launches

E.CE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2(2)

1 2 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 5(5)

2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 3 2 1 8(5)

3 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 4(4)

Total 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 6 6 5 19(16)

Ratio 2//19 1//19 1//19 1//19 8//19 6//19

Percentage 10.53% 5.26% 5.26% 5.26% 42.11% 31.58%

Appendix Table 5.2-17. Tables 6 (Spring and

Summer) of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-2.

Appendix Table 5.2-18. Tables 6 (Fall and Winter)

of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-2.

Table 7 Seasonal Analysis: Cavern Point - Final Location and Shoreline Contact in Spring and Summer Seasons

 X(Y)(Z) = Trajectories in Final Location(strikes in final location)(strikes enroute to final location)

 Spring Season

CCACoast SCBWest SBChannel SCBCoastal S.SBCI

Launch Pts. CCACoast Strike SCBWest Strike SBChannel Strike SCBCoastal Strike S.SBCI Strike Launches

E.CE 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 2(2)

1 0 0 0 0 6 6(2) 3 2 0 0 9(8)(2)

2 0 0 3 0 3 3(2) 1 1 0 0(1) 7(4)(3)

3 0 0 3 0 2 2(2) 2 2(1) 0 0 7(4)(3)

Total 0 0 6 0 11 11(6) 8 7(1) 0 0(1) 25(18)(8)

Ratio 0/25 6//25 11///25 8//25 0/25

Percentage 0.00% 24.00% 44.00% 32.00% 0.00%

 Summer Season

CCACoast SCBWest SBChannel SCBCoastal S.SBCI

Launch Pts. CCACoast Strike SCBWest Strike SBChannel Strike SCBCoastal Strike S.SBCI Strike Launches

E.CE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0(0)

1 0 0 1 0 2 2(1) 2 2 1 0 5(4)(1)

2 0 0 3 0 2 2(4) 2 0 0 1 8(3)(4)

3 0 0 3 0 3 3(2) 1 1 0 0(2) 7(4)(4)

Total 0 0 7 0 7 7(7) 5 3 1 1(2) 20(11)(9)

Ratio 0/25 7//20 7//20 5//20 1//20

Percentage 0.00% 35.00% 35.00% 25.00% 5.00%

Appendix Table 5.2-19. Tables 7 (Spring and

Summer) of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-2.

Appendix Table 5.2-20. Tables 7 (Fall and Winter)

of Appendix Exhibit 5.2-2.

 SMB-A.

Table 7 Seasonal Analysis: Cavern Point - Final Location and Shoreline Contact in Fall and Winter Seasons

 X(Y)(Z) = Trajectories in Final Location(strikes in final location)(strikes enroute to final location)

 Fall Season

CCACoast SCBWest SBChannel SCBCoastal S.SBCI

Launch Pts. CCACoast Strike SCBWest Strike SBChannel Strike SCBCoastal Strike S.SBCI Strike Launches

E.CE

1 1 1 2 0 3 3(1) 0 0 1 1 7(5)(1)

2 2 1 5 0 1 1(3) 0 0 0 0 8(2)(3)

3 1 0 2 0 2 2(1) 0 0 1 1 6(3)(1)

Total 4 2 9 0 6 6(5) 0 0 2 2 21(10)(5)

Ratio 4//21 9//21 6//21 0/21 2//21

Percentage 19.05% 42.86% 28.57% 0.00% 9.52%

 Winter Season

CCACoast SCBWest SBChannel SCBCoastal S.SBCI

Launch Pts. CCACoast Strike SCBWest Strike SBChannel Strike SCBCoastal Strike S.SBCI Strike Launches

E.CE 2 2 0 0 0 0(1) 0 0 0 0 2(2)(1)

1 0 0 1 0 2 2(1) 2 2 0 0 5(4)(1)

2 2 1 0 0 1 1(2) 5 2 0 0 8(4)(2)

3 2 2 1 0 0 0(3) 1 0 0 0 4(2)(3)

Total 6 5 2 0 3 3(7) 7 4 0 0 19(12)(7)

Ratio 6//19 2//19 3//19 7//19 0/19

Percentage 31.58% 10.53% 15.79% 36.84% 0.00%
A5-38

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

making contact with the shoreline. The second two

most dominant directions of drifter trajectory were

south and southeast with 19.5% each, with 100% of

the drifters going south making contact with the

shoreline and 75.0% of those moving in the southeast

direction making landfall. Drifter trajectories toward

the northwest along the central California coastline

accounted for 14.3% of the total number of launches,

with 66.7% making shoreline contact. Two drifters

of the 21 launched (9.5%) during the fall season moved

to the east, with both (100%) making shoreline contact. No drifters moved to the east during the fall

seasons that were sampled.

Final locations (Table 7) of the free floating drifters during the fall season consisted of 42.9% in the

western region of the Southern California Bight with

no shoreline contact occurring, 28.6% in the Santa

Barbara Channel with 83.3% making shoreline contact, 19.1% along the central California coastline with

50.0% making shoreline contact, and 9.52% in the

nearshore region of the southern coastlines of the

Channel Islands with 100% making landfall.

Winter Season (December – February): The

dominant oceanic flow regimes for the winter are the

relaxation flow regime, and to a slightly lesser extent,

the upwelling flow regime.

There were 19 drifters successfully launched

from the proximity of Cavern Point during the winter seasons (Table 6). Drifters tended to go southeast 42.1% of the time with 75.0% of those launches

making shoreline contact. Drifters advected northwest along the central California coastline 31.6% of

the time with 83.3% of them making shoreline contact. North was the third most prominent direction

for drifter movement during the winter season at

10.5% of the drifters launched, with 100% making

shoreline contact. One drifter (5.3% of the winter

season launches) travels south, one travels west, and

one travels east. All three made shoreline contact.

Final locations (Table 7) of the free floating drifters during the winter season consisted of 36.8% in

the coastal region of the Southern California Bight

with 57.1% of those drifters making shoreline contact, 31.6% along the central California coastline with

83.3% making shoreline contact, 15.8% in the Santa

Barbara Channel with 100% making shoreline contact, and 10.5% in the western region of the Southern

California Bight with none making landfall.

DISCUSSION

It is apparent by the high shoreline contact statistics (82.4% of the 85 drifters launched from the

Cavern Point area) that if an oil spill of significant

size occurred at Cavern Point there would almost certainly be shoreline contact unless there was effective

intervention. The drifter data represented in all of

the tables, but specifically Tables 4 and 5, indicate

there is virtually no particular region in the SBC-SMB

area that is not vulnerable to a large spill occurring

at Cavern Point. Certainly the Channel Islands and

the coastal area of the Southern California Bight are

the most vulnerable to oil contact with 47.1% of all

drifter launches making shoreline contact in this region. The mainland coastline of the Channel suffered

shoreline contact from 27.1% of all the launches from

Cavern Point. Free floating drifters launched from

Cavern Point reached the central California coastline

at an 8.2% rate. This latter phenomenon is not represented in the MMS Pacific Region OSRA Model results.

The most important non-seasonal statistics

when considering resources at risk from an oil spill

are those concerning the dominant/effective direction

of the drifter trajectory. Table 2 indicates that the

environmental resources southeast of Cavern Point,

the majority of which are outside the eastern Channel entrance, are vulnerable 35.3% of the time. Environmental resources located along the central California coastline are vulnerable 10.6% of the time from

a large oil spill (over 500 barrels) occurring in the

Cavern Point area. The remaining 50% of the time

onshore and offshore environmental resources within

the Santa Barbara Channel would be impacted by a

large oil spill occurring in the Cavern Point area.

The seasonal drifter data results are consistent

with the known oceanography in the SBC-SMB area.

In the spring and summer seasons, the upwelling and

cyclonic flow regimes, respectively, dominate the oceanic circulation in the SBC-SMB area. During these

seasons, no drifters ever entered the central California coastal region which is what would be expected

since no poleward current is generated during these

regimes. The dominate directions during these two

seasons respectively were the southeast (36.0% and

45.0%), west (24.0% and 30.0%), north (32.0% and

0.0%), and south (4.0% and 20.0%).

In the fall and winter seasons the relaxation,

cyclonic, and upwelling flow regimes, in that order,

dominate the oceanic circulation in the SBC-SMB

area. The dominant directions for the drifters

launched during the fall seasons are west (38.1%),

southeast (19.1%), south (19.1%), northwest (14.3%),

and north (9.5%). Unlike the spring and summer seasons, in the fall a significant number of drifter trajectories travel northwest along the central California

coast.

The dominant directions for the drifters

launched during the winter seasons are the southeast (42.1%), northwest along the central California

coast (31.6%), north (10.5%), south (5.3%), west

(5.3%), and east (5.3%). In the winter a third of the

drifter trajectories travel northwest along the central

California coast.
A5-39

Appendix for Chapter 5

So, in a nutshell, what are the areas most vulnerable to an oil spill occurring at Cavern Point, and

by what degree? Table 4 indicates that 61.2% of all

drifter strikes launched from the Cavern Point area

occur within the SBC. From the Cavern Point area it

takes from less than a day to up to 4 days to strike

anywhere in the Channel. The remaining 38.8% of

drifter strikes occur southeast of the SBC at the Southern California Bight shorelines, or at Pt. Arguello and

north along the southern central California coastline.

While it is possible that oil could hit the regions beyond the SBC, it would have to be unabated by organized response measures and weathering. The regions southeast of the SBC are the next most vulnerable since the southeast is a high percentage dominant direction with shoreline availability for drifters

during all 4 seasons. It would take 5 to 10 days for a

spill travelling southeast out of the eastern Channel

entrance to strike Redondo Beach.

Drifters, and therefore oil, are only carried in

the direction along the central California coastline

during a relaxation event, which typically occurs during the fall and winter seasons. Drifter data also indicates that it would take 5 to 20 days for oil spilling

from the Cavern Point area to make landfall somewhere along the central California coastline. So, while

it is significant that 11.8% of all drifters launched from

the Cavern Point area make their final location along

the central California coastline, it would require a

catastrophic event at Cavern Point to jeopardize resources in the shoreline areas north of Pt. Arguello.

 The surface drifter trajectories emanating from

the Cavern Point Unit Project area vary at times with

the trajectories calculated for that area by the MMS

OSRA Model. MMS OSRA Model trajectories make

very few shoreline contacts north of Pt. Arguello

throughout the entire year. One of the reasons for

this is the OSRA Model is heavily dependent on wind

fields in performing its trajectory calculations and,

therefore, its probabilities of shoreline contact. It calculates numerous trajectories from the same launch

point by varying the wind over a seasonally averaged

ocean current field and applying the deep ocean 3.5-

percent wind effect estimator to project the assumed

movement of oil over the surface layer of the water.

The prevailing wind characteristic of the SBC-SMB

area is from the northwest.

Another reason for OSRA Model trajectories not

proceeding to the northwest along the central California coast during the fall and winter seasons is that

the currents that were provided as input to the OSRA

Model were seasonally averaged. Any transition of

current flow from the westerly to northwesterly directions in the vicinity west of Pt. Arguello was

smoothed out in the synoptic current fields by the

averaging process. Because of this and other circumstances resulting from seasonally averaging currrent

synoptic data fields, it has been argued that truer representations of actual synoptic currents in the SBC

area could be obtained by averaging the synoptic data

by current flow regime. This way the characteristics

of one distinct flow regime would not act to modify

the characteristics of another flow regime occurring

in the same season. As it is now, only establishing a

strong wind forcing from the south will override this

particular result of seasonally averaging the synoptic

current data sets.

Therefore, the probabilities computed from this

present OSRA Model run are based on oil spill trajectories more prominently directed toward the south

and southeast relative to the drifter trajectories.

Other oil spill trajectory analysis tools provide oil spill

trajectories where wind is seen to exert far less influence than theoretical estimators such as the 3.5-percent rule would indicate. However, even the proponents of the 3.5-percent rule would have to agree that

in the circumstane where drifters do move northwestward along the central California coast, their trajectories most likely will give a reasonaably good estimate of what oil will do. This is because drifters

launched from the Santa Barbara Channel only move

poleward along the central California coastline during a relaxation flow regime event. The winds “relax” in intensity and allow the poleward alongshore

pressure gradient to dominate the circulation forcing

in the area. The theoretical wind estimator becomes

negligible, even for discussion, in this instance.

Experimental time varying synoptic current

fields representing conditions in the SBC-SMB area

have been developed from both observations and dynamic modeling techniques. Preliminary runs using

these new current fields have produced OSRA model

trajectories more in line with those of the surface drifters. However, the drifter data and the present OSRA

Model calculations both provide important insights.

The drifter analysis is based on actual field observations and provides information on actual surface current flow variability to be considered with the computer-generated results calculated for the SBC-SMB

area by the OSRA Model. Together, the two analyses

present a more complete picture of what may occur

when oil is spilled.
A5-40

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County Gnome Model Analysis Results Tables Appendix Tables 5.2-21 to 5.2-38 Appendix Table 5.2-21. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill at launch point SMB-A GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results Launch Point:SMB-A Spill Volume: 200 BBL Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54 Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds Relaxation 3 SMB N 1 Pt Sal 79 117 3 4mpsNW Pismo Bch N SMB Relaxation 10 SMB N 3 Pt Sal Purisima Pt 88 3 106 4mpsNW Pismo Bch N SMB Relaxation 3 SMB N 0 79 49 72 0mps N SMB

Relaxation 10 SMB N 0 80 0 120 0mps

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 0 77 23 100 4mpsSW

N SMB

Relaxation 10 SMB N 0 77 0 123 4mpsSW

N SMB

Convergent 3 SMB S 6 Surf Purisima Pt 79 114 0 7mpsNW

Pt Arguello

Convergent 10 SMB S 12 Surf Purisima Pt 96 19 74 7mpsNW

Pt Arguello W SMB

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 1 Surf 79 120 0 8mpsNW

Pt Arguello

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 50 S Miguel I 95 12 43 8mpsNW

S Rosa I S WCE
A5-41

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-22. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil spill at launch point SMB-A.

GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results

Launch Point:SMB-A

Spill Volume: 2000 BBL

Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54

Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds

Relaxation 3 SMB N 12 Pt Sal 786 1174 28 4mpsNW

Pismo Bch N SMB

Relaxation 10 SMB N 26 Pt Sal Purisima Pt 880 30 1064 4mpsNW

Pismo Bch N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 0 788 494 718 0mps

N SMB

Relaxation 10 SMB N 0 796 0 1204 0mps

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 0 768 230 1002 4mpsSW

N SMB

Relaxation 10 SMB N 0 774 0 1226 4mpsSW

N SMB

Convergent 3 SMB S 62 Surf Purisima Pt 794 1144 0 7mpsNW

Pt Arguello

Convergent 10 SMB S 118 Surf Purisima Pt 958 186 738 7mpsNW

Pt Arguello W SMB

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 8 Surf 794 1198 0 8mpsNW

Pt Arguello

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 496 S Miguel I 950 122 432 8mpsNW

S Rosa I S WCE
A5-42

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County Appendix Table 5.2-23. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill at Platform Hidalgo. GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results Launch Point: Hidalgo Spill Volume: 200 BBL Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54 Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds Relaxation 3 SMB N 2 Purisima Pt Surf 79 119 0 4mpsNW Relaxation 10 SMB N 35 Purisima Pt Surf 96 33 36 4mpsNW Pt. Sal Pismo Bch N SMB Relaxation 3 SMB N 0 79 121 0 0mps Relaxation 10 SMB N 1 Purisima Pt 93 6 100 0mps N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 8 Purisima Pt Surf 79 113 0 4mpsSW

Pt. Sal

Relaxation 10 SMB N 30 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 94 24 52 4mpsSW

Pt. Sal Pt. San Luis N SMB

Convergent 3 SMB NW SMB NE 1 Pt. Arguelo 79 120 0 7mpsNWConvergent 10 SMB W SMB NE 1 Pt. Arguelo 95 43 61 7mpsNW

W SMB

Upwelling 3 SBC SE S of SBC S 32 S Miguel I S Rosa I 79 88 1 8mpsNW

S WCE

Upwelling 10 SBC SE S of SBC S 57 S Miguel I 95 14 33 8mpsNW

S Rosa I S WCE
A5-43

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-24. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil spill at Platform Hidalgo.

GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results

Launch Point: Hidalgo

Spill Volume: 2000 BBL

Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54

Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds

Relaxation 3 SMB N 20 Purisima Pt Surf 794 1186 0 4mpsNWRelaxation 10 SMB N 358 Purisima Pt Surf 950 318 374 4mpsNW

Pt. Sal Pismo Bch N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 2 Surf 794 1204 0 0mpsRelaxation 10 SMB N 2 Pt. Sal 920 52 1026 0mps

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 86 Purisima Pt Surf 794 1120 0 4mpsSW

Pt. Sal

Relaxation 10 SMB N 296 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 942 220 542 4mpsSW

Pt. Sal Pt. San Luis N SMB

Convergent 3 SMB NW SMB NE 6 Pt. Arguelo 794 1200 0 7mpsNWConvergent 10 SMB W SMB NE 4 Pt. Arguelo 950 432 614 7mpsNW

W SMB

Upwelling 3 SBC SE S of SBC S 324 S Miguel I S Rosa I 792 880 4 8mpsNW

S WCE

Upwelling 10 SBC SE S of SBC S 572 S Miguel I 950 144 334 8mpsNW

S Rosa I S WCE
A5-44

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County Appendix Table 5.2-25. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill at Platform Harvest. GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results Launch Point: Harvest Spill Volume: 200 BBL Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54 Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds Relaxation 3 SMB N 1 Surf 79 120 0 4mpsNW Relaxation 10 SMB N 26 Purisima Pt Surf 97 31 46 4mpsNW Pt Sal N SMB Pismo Bch Relaxation 3 SMB N 1 Purisima Pt 79 120 0 0mps Relaxation 10 SMB N 1 Purisima Pt Pt Sal 93 6 101 0mps

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 4 Purisima Pt Surf 79 116 0 4mpsSWRelaxation 10 SMB N 22 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 93 17 67 4mpsSW

Pt Sal Pt. San Luis N SMB

Convergent 3 SMB W 0 79 121 0 7mpsNWConvergent 10 SMB W 0 96 60 44 7mpsNW

W SMB

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 45 S Miguel I S Rosa I 79 74 2 8mpsNW

S WCE

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 58 S Miguel I 95 10 36 8mpsNW

S Rosa I S WCE
A5-45

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-26. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil spill at Platform Harvest.

GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results

Launch Point: Harvest

Spill Volume: 2000 BBL

Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54

Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds

Relaxation 3 SMB N 4 Surf 794 1202 0 4mpsNWRelaxation 10 SMB N 280 Purisima Pt Surf 972 290 458 4mpsNW

Pt Sal N SMB

Pismo Bch

Relaxation 3 SMB N 2 Purisima Pt 794 1204 0 0mpsRelaxation 10 SMB N 4 Purisima Pt Pt Sal 930 56 1010 0mps

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 42 Purisima Pt Surf 794 1164 0 4mpsSWRelaxation 10 SMB N 220 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 934 174 672 4mpsSW

Pt Sal Pt. San Luis N SMB

Convergent 3 SMB W 0 794 1206 0 7mpsNWConvergent 10 SMB W 0 960 600 440 7mpsNW

W SMB

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 452 S Miguel I S Rosa I 792 736 20 8mpsNW

S WCE

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 580 S Miguel I 954 104 362 8mpsNW

S Rosa I S WCE
A5-46

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County Appendix Table 5.2-27. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill at Platform Hermosa. GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results Launch Point: Hermosa Spill Volume: 200 BBL Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54 Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds Relaxation 3 SMB N 1 Surf Purisima Pt 79 120 0 4mpsNW Relaxation 10 SMB N 28 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 97 32 43 4mpsNW Pt Sal Surf N SMB Relaxation 3 SMB N 0 79 121 0 0mps Relaxation 10 SMB N 1 Purisima Pt Pt Sal 93 8 98 0mps

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 8 Purisima Pt Pt Sal 79 112 0 4mpsSWRelaxation 10 SMB N 27 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 93 24 56 4mpsSW

Pt Sal Pt San Luis N SMB

Convergent 3 SMB W 0 79 121 0 7mpsNWConvergent 10 SMB W 0 96 72 32 7mpsNW

SW SMB

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 57 S Miguel I S Rosa I 79 63 1 8mpsNW

S WCE

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 60 S Miguel I S Rosa I 96 13 31 8mpsNW

S WCE
A5-47

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-28. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil spill at Platform Hermosa.

GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results

Launch Point: Hermosa

Spill Volume: 2000 BBL

Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54

Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds

Relaxation 3 SMB N 6 Surf Purisima Pt 794 1200 0 4mpsNWRelaxation 10 SMB N 282 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 970 322 426 4mpsNW

Pt Sal N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 0 794 1206 0 0mpsRelaxation 10 SMB N 8 Purisima Pt Pt Sal 934 78 980 0mps

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N 82 Purisima Pt Pt Sal 794 1124 0 4mpsSWRelaxation 10 SMB N 268 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 934 242 556 4mpsSW

Pt Sal Pt San Luis N SMB

Convergent 3 SMB W 0 794 1202 0 7mpsNWConvergent 10 SMB W 0 962 716 322 7mpsNW

W SMB

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 566 S Miguel I S Rosa I 792 630 12 8mpsNW

S WCE

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 598 S Miguel I S Rosa I 964 130 308 8mpsNW

S WCE
A5-48

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County Appendix Table 5.2-29. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill at Platform Heritage. GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results Launch Point: Heritage Spill Volume: 200 BBL Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54 Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds Relaxation 3 SBC SW SMB W & N 0 79 121 0 4mpsNW Relaxation 10 SBC S & SE SMB N &W 33 S Miguel I S Cruz I 98 47 22 4mpsNW S Rosa I S SBC S WCE Relaxation 3 SBC W SMB N & W 0 79 121 0 0mps Relaxation 10 SBC S SMB W & N 3 S Miguel I S Rosa I 96 81 20 0mps S WCE

W SMB

Relaxation 3 SBC W SMB N & W 0 79 121 0 4mpsSWRelaxation 10 SMB N SBC S 1 Purisima Pt Pt Sal 96 30 73 4mpsSW

Pt San Luis Pismo Bch N SMB

Convergent 3 SBC S & SE 24 S Miguel I S Cruz I 79 96 1 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S SBC

Convergent 10 SBC S & SE 48 S Miguel I 95 15 41 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S SBC

S Cruz I

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 20 S Cruz I S Rosa I 79 101 0 8mpsNW

S SBC

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 11 S Cruz I Ventura 88 5 95 8mpsNW

SE ECE

S SBC
A5-49

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-30. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil spill at Platform Heritage.

GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results

Launch Point: Heritage

Spill Volume: 2000 BBL

Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54

Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds

Relaxation 3 SBC SW SMB W & N 0 794 1206 0 4mpsNWRelaxation 10 SBC S SMB N &W 324 S Miguel I S Cruz I 972 460 244 4mpsNW

S Rosa I S SBC

S WCE

Relaxation 3 SBC W SMB N & W 0 794 1206 0 0mpsRelaxation 10 SBC S SMB W & N 40 S Miguel I S Rosa I 964 782 214 0mps

S WCE

W SMB

Relaxation 3 SBC W SMB N & W 0 794 1206 0 4mpsSWRelaxation 10 SMB N SBC S 20 Purisima Pt Pt Sal 954 302 724 4mpsSW

Pt San Luis Pismo Bch N SMB

Convergent 3 SBC S & SE 244 S Miguel I S Cruz I 786 956 14 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S SBC

Convergent 10 SBC S & SE 482 S Miguel I 954 154 410 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S SBC

S Cruz I

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 198 S Cruz I S Rosa I 790 1008 4 8mpsNW

S SBC

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 112 S Cruz I Ventura 882 52 954 8mpsNW

SE ECE

S SBC
A5-50

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County Appendix Table 5.2-31. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill at Platform Harmony. GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results Launch Point: Harmony Spill Volume: 200 BBL Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54 Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds Relaxation 3 SBC SW SMB W & N 0 79 121 0 4mpsNW Relaxation 10 SBC S & SE SMB W & N 25 S Miguel I S Cruz I 97 58 21 4mpsNW S Rosa I S WCE S SBC N SMB Relaxation 3 SBC W SMB W & N 0 79 121 0 0mps Relaxation 10 SBC W & SW SMB W & N 1 S Miguel I S Rosa I 97 63 39 0mps Pismo Bch S WCE

W SMB

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SBC W SMB N 1 Pt Arguello Surf 119 0 4mpsSWRelaxation 10 SBC W SMB N & W 8 Purisima Pt Surf 96 18 79 4mpsSW

Pt Sal Pismo Bch N SMB

Convergent 3 SBC S 11 S Miguel I 79 109 0 7mpsNW

S Rosa I

Convergent 10 SBC S & SE 52 S Miguel I 96 15 37 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S SBC

S Cruz I

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 3 S Cruz I 79 117 0 8mpsNWUpwelling 10 SBC SE 2 S Cruz I Ventura 90 5 103 8mpsNW

SE ECE
A5-51

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-32. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil spill at Platform Harmony.

GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results

Launch Point: Harmony

Spill Volume: 2000 BBL

Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54

Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds

Relaxation 3 SBC SW SMB W & N 0 794 1206 0 4mpsNWRelaxation 10 SBC S & SE SMB W & N 250 S Miguel I S Cruz I 968 576 206 4mpsNW

S Rosa I S WCE

S SBC

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SBC W SMB W & N 0 794 1206 0 0mpsRelaxation 10 SBC W & SW SMB W & N 8 S Miguel I S Rosa I 970 628 394 0mps

Pismo Bch S WCE

W SMB

N SMB

Relaxation 3 SBC W SMB N 14 Pt Arguello Surf 794 1192 0 4mpsSWRelaxation 10 SBC W SMB N & W 78 Purisima Pt Surf 956 180 786 4mpsSW

Pt Sal Pismo Bch N SMB

Convergent 3 SBC S 112 S Miguel I 792 1094 2 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S SBC

Convergent 10 SBC S & SE 524 S Miguel I 958 152 366 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S SBC

S Cruz I

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 34 S Cruz I 794 1172 0 8mpsNWUpwelling 10 SBC SE 22 S Cruz I 898 50 1030 8mpsNW

SE ECE
A5-52

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County Appendix Table 5.2-33. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill at Platform Hondo. GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results Launch Point: Hondo Spill Volume: 200 BBL Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54 Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds Relaxation 3 SMB W 0 79 121 0 4mpsNW Relaxation 10 SBC S SMB N & W 16 S Miguel I Purisima Pt 97 73 14 4mpsNW S Rosa I Pismo Bch N SMB S Cruz I Pt. Sal S WCE Relaxation 3 SMB W & N 0 79 121 0 0mps Relaxation 10 SMB W & N 1 Purisima Pt S Miguel I 97 46 57 0mps N SMB

W SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N SMB W 5 Pt Arguello 79 116 0 4mpsSW

Surf

Relaxation 10 SMB N 20 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 97 20 63 4mpsSW

Pt. Sal N SMB

Convergent 3 SBC S SMB W 6 S Miguel I S Rosa I 79 115 0 7mpsNWConvergent 10 SBC S 53 S Miguel I S Cruz I 96 18 33 7mpsNW

S Rosa I SBC

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 1 S Cruz I 79 120 0 8mpsNWUpwelling 10 SE ECE SE SBC SE 2 S Cruz I 89 6 103 8mpsNW

ECE
A5-53

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-34. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil spill at Platform Hondo.

GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results

Launch Point: Hondo

Spill Volume: 2000 BBL

Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54

Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds

Relaxation 3 SMB W 0 794 1206 0 4mpsNWRelaxation 10 SBC S SMB N & W 146 S Miguel I Purisima Pt 968 742 144 4mpsNW

S Rosa I Pismo Bch N SMB

S Cruz I Pt. Sal S WCE

Relaxation 3 SMB W & N 0 794 1206 0 0mpsRelaxation 10 SMB W & N 8 Purisima Pt S Miguel I 976 480 536 0mps

Pt. Sal N SMB

W SMB

Relaxation 3 SMB N SMB W 50 Purisima P Pt. Sal 794 1156 0 4mpsSW

Surf

Relaxation 10 SMB N 196 Purisima Pt Pismo Bch 950 218 636 4mpsSW

Pt. Sal Pt. San Luis N SMB

Convergent 3 SBC S SMB W 56 S Miguel I S Rosa I 794 1150 0 7mpsNWConvergent 10 SBC S 532 S Miguel I S Cruz I 964 176 614 7mpsNW

S Rosa I SBC

Upwelling 3 SBC SE 8 S Cruz I 794 1198 0 8mpsNWUpwelling 10 SBC EE SE SBC SE 18 S Cruz I 890 60 1032 8mpsNW

SBC EE
A5-54

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County Appendix Table 5.2-35. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill at Platform Hillhouse. GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results Launch Point: Hillhouse Spill Volume: 200 BBL Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54 Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds Relaxation 3 SBC W 71 Goleta Pt S Barbara 79 50 0 0 mps Gaviota Relaxation 10 SBC W SMB N 19 Goleta Pt Pt Arguello 97 83 0 4mpsNW Gaviota Purisima Pt Pt Sal Relaxation 3 SBC W 71 Goleta Pt S Barbara 79 50 0 0mps Gaviota Relaxation 10 SBC W 22 Goleta Pt Pt Arguello 97 78 3 0mps

Gaviota Purisima Pt N SMB

Relaxation 3 SBC W 71 Goleta Pt S Barbara 79 50 0 0 mps

Gaviota 

Relaxation 10 SBC W SMB N 52 Goleta Pt Pt Arguello 97 44 7 4mpsSW

Gaviota to Pt Sal N SMB

Convergent 3 SBC W 24 Goleta Pt 79 97 0 0mpsNW

Gaviota

Convergent 10 SBC W SMB W 20 S Miguel I Capitan 97 30 53 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S WCE

Upwelling 3 SBC W 16 S Barbara 79 105 0 0mpsNW

Gaviota

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 8 S Cruz I S Rosa I 97 15 80 8mpsNW

SE ECE
A5-55

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-36. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil spill at Platform Hillhouse.

GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results

Launch Point: Hillhouse

Spill Volume: 2000 BBL

Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54

Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds

Relaxation 3 SBC W 698 Goleta Pt S Barbara 794 508 0 0 mps

Gaviota 

Relaxation 10 SBC W SMB N 164 Goleta Pt S Barbara 972 864 0 4mpsNW

Capitan Purisima Pt

Gaviota Pt Sal

Relaxation 3 SBC W 698 Goleta Pt S Barbara 794 508 0 0mps

Gaviota 

Relaxation 10 SBC W 236 Goleta Pt P Conception 974 764 26 0mps

Gaviota P Arguello N SMB

Relaxation 3 SBC W 698 Goleta Pt S Barbara 794 508 0 0 mps

Gaviota 

Relaxation 10 SBC W SMB N 570 Goleta Pt Pt Arguello 972 404 54 4mpsSW

Gaviota to Pt Sal N SMB

Convergent 3 SBC W 240 Goleta Pt 794 966 0 0mpsNW

Gaviota

Convergent 10 SBC W SMB W 202 S Miguel I Capitan 966 302 530 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S WCE

Upwelling 3 SBC W 156 S Barbara 794 1050 0 0mpsNW

Gaviota

Upwelling 10 SBC SE 84 S Cruz I S Rosa I 970 150 796 8mpsNW

SE ECE
A5-56

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County Appendix Table 5.2-37. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 200 bbl oil spill at Platform Gail. GNOME Oil Spill Trajectory Run Results Launch Point: Gail Spill Volume: 200 BBL Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54 Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds Relaxation 3 SBC W 21 S Barbara 79 99 0 0 mps Gaviota Relaxation 10 SBC W 8 Coal Oil Pt Pt Arguello 97 93 1 4mpsNW Gaviota Purisima Pt S WCE S Miguel I S Rosa I Relaxation 3 SBC W Same as above for the next two Relaxation events Relaxation 10 SBC W 8 Goleta pt Pt Arguello 97 89 6 0mps Gaviota Purisima Pt N SMB

Pt Sal

Relaxation 10 SBC W 37 Naples Goleta Pt 97 48 18 4mpsSW

Gaviota Pt San Luis

Pt Arguello

to Pt Sal

Convergent 3 SBC W 19 Carpenteria Ventura 79 101 0 0mpsNW

S Barbara

Gaviota

Convergent 10 SBC W 42 S Miguel I Carpenteria 96 37 26 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S Cruz I S WCE

Upwelling 7 Hrs SBC SE 0 15 16 169 1.5mpsNW

SE ECE

Upwelling 3 & 10 SBC SE 0 15 0 185 1.5mpsNW

SE ECE
A5-57

Appendix for Chapter 5

Appendix Table 5.2-38. GNOME oil spill trajectory results for hypothetical 2000 bbl oil spill at Platform Gail. p jy

Launch Point: Gail

Spill Volume: 2000 BBL

Flow No. Days Area of Trajectory 2nd Area of Trajectory BBl of Oil Primary Secondary BBl of Oil BBl of Oil BBl of Oil NDBC 54

Regime Model Run Trajectory Direction Trajectory Direction Beached Location Location Weathered Floating Off Map Winds

Relaxation 3 SBC W 212 S Barbara 794 994 0 0 mps

Gaviota

Relaxation 10 SBC W 94 Coal Oil Pt Pt Arguello 974 924 8 4mpsNW

Gaviota Purisima Pt S WCE

S Miguel I S Rosa I

Relaxation 3 SBC W Same as above for the next two Relaxation eventsRelaxation 10 SBC W 82 Goleta pt Pt Arguello 974 886 58 0mps

Gaviota Purisima Pt N SMB

Pt Sal

Relaxation 10 SBC W 368 Naples Goleta Pt 970 482 180 4mpsSW

Gaviota Pt San Luis

Pt Arguello

to Pt Sal

Convergent 3 SBC W 192 Carpenteria Ventura 794 1014 0 0mpsNW

S Barbara

Gaviota

Convergent 10 SBC W 418 S Miguel I Carpenteria 956 366 260 7mpsNW

S Rosa I S Cruz I S WCE

Upwelling 7 Hrs SBC SE 0 146 162 1692 1.5mpsNW

SE ECE

Upwelling 3 & 10 SBC SE 0 148 0 1852 1.5mpsNW

SE ECE