NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 260 ■ October 2016

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

National Center for Health Statistics

Birth Expectations of U.S. Women Aged 15–44

Jill Daugherty, Ph.D., and Gladys Martinez, Ph.D.

Key findings 

Data from the National 

Survey of Family Growth

● Among U.S. women aged

15–44 in 2013–2015, 50%

expected to have a child in the

future.

● In 2013–2015, differences

were seen by age in women’s

expectations to have a child

in the future, regardless of the

number of biological children

they have had.

● In 2013–2015, women on

average expected to have

2.2 children in their lifetime.

This estimate has decreased

since 2002.

● A smaller percentage of

never married, not cohabiting

women expected to have a child

within 2 years from the time

of interview (5%) compared

with currently married (19%)

and currently cohabiting (16%)

women.

● Eighty-two percent of

women who already had two

or more children did not expect

to have more children in the

future.

Birth expectations have been shown to be related to sexual activity, 

contraceptive use, and fertility (1–3). While most U.S. women believe that 

having two children is ideal (4), this varies by sociodemographic characteristics. 

Using data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), this report 

describes women’s birth expectations, number of children expected, and when 

they expected their next child to be born. Data are shown by age, marital or 

cohabiting status, and number of children. Selected trends are also shown using 

NSFG data from 2002, 2006–2010, 2011–2013, and 2013–2015.

Keywords: birth intention • children expected • timing of birth

What percentage of women expect to have a child in the 

future?

● In 2013–2015, approximately 50% of women expected to have a child in

the future (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Percentage of women aged 15–44 who expect, do not expect, or do not know if they 

expect to have a child in the future: United States, 2002, 2006–2010, 2011–2013, and 2013–2015

1Statistically significant time trend for percentages of women who expect and who don’t expect to have a child in the future (p < 0.05). 

NOTE: Access data table for Figure 1 at: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db260_table.pdf#1.

SOURCE: NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, 2002, 2006–2010, 2011–2013, and 2013–2015. 
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 260 ■ October 2016

■  2  ■

● The percentage of women who expected to have a child in the future increased between 

2002 (46%) and 2013–2015 (50%).

● In each survey time period, 1%–2% of women reported that they did not know their birth 

expectations.

Do birth expectations for women vary by age and number of biological 

children they already have? 

● As age increased, the percentage of women who expected to have a child decreased 

regardless of the number of biological children they already had (Figure 2). 

● In 2013–2015, women aged 15–24 who did not yet have any biological children were more 

likely to expect to have a child in the future (86%) compared with women aged 25–34 

(77%) and 35–44 (33%). A similar pattern was seen for women who had one child. 

● A higher percentage of women aged 15–24 with at least two biological children (63%) 

expected to have a child compared with women aged 25–34 (25%) and 35–44 (6%). 

● As the number of children increased, the percentage of women who expected to have a child 

decreased. This pattern held regardless of age group.

Figure 2. Percentage of women aged 15–44 who expect to have a child in the future, by current age and number of

biological children: United States, 2013–2015

1

Within the age group, a statistically significant decreasing trend was seen in the percentage of women who intend to have a child in the future by the number of

biological children (p < 0.05). 2

The percentage for two or more children was significantly lower than percentages for no children and one child. No significant difference was seen in the percentages 

for no children and one child (p < 0.05).

NOTES: Within each number of biological children, a significant decreasing trend was seen in the percentage of women who expect to have a child in the future by 

age (p < 0.05). Access data table for Figure 2 at: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db260_table.pdf#2.

SOURCE: NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, 2013–2015. 
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 260 ■ October 2016

■  3  ■

What is the average number of children that women expect to have?

● The average number of children already born and the average total number of births 

expected have both decreased since 2002 (Figure 3). 

● The average number of additional children expected at the time of interview has not 

changed significantly since 2002.

● In 2013–2015, women aged 15–44 expected 2.2 children on average. 

Figure 3. Average number of children already born, additional children expected, and total births expected among women 

aged 15–44: United States, 2002, 2006–2010, 2011–2013, and 2013–2015 

1

Average numberfor 2002 was not significantly different from the average number for 2006–2010, and the average number for 2011–2013 was not significantly 

different from that for 2013–2015. All other average numbers were significantly different (p < 0.05). 2

Average number for 2002 was significantly different from the average number for 2006–2010, and the average number for 2006–2010 was significantly different 

from that for 2013–2015. All other average numbers were not significantly different (p < 0.05). 3

Statistically significant time trend for average number of children born and total number of births expected (p < 0.05).

NOTES: For the total number of births expected, the average numbers for 2002 and 2006–2010 were not significantly different from the average number for 2011–2013.

All other average numbers were significantly different (p < 0.05). Access data table for Figure 3 at: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db260_table.pdf#3.

SOURCE: NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, 2002, 2006–2010, 2011–2013, and 2013–2015. 
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 260 ■ October 2016

■  4  ■

When do women expect to have their first or next child, and does it vary by 

marital or cohabiting status?

● A greater percentage of cohabiting women (28%) and never married, not cohabiting women 

(27%) expected to have a child in 2–5 years than married women (12%) (Figure 4). 

● A greater percentage of never married, not cohabiting women expected to have a child more 

than 5 years from the time of interview (40%) than cohabiting women (10%) and married 

women (2%).

● About two-thirds of married women (67%), 45% of currently cohabiting women, and 28% of 

never married, not cohabiting women did not expect to have a child in the future. 

Figure 4. Birth expectations and expected timing of next child among women aged 15–44, by marital or cohabiting status:

United States, 2013–2015

1

Significantly different from currently cohabiting within same time interval group. 2

Significantly different from never married, not cohabiting within same time interval group. 3

All percentages are significantly different (p < 0.05). 4

Percentage for 2–5 years is not significantly different from the percentage who don’t expect another child. All other percentages are significantly different (p < 0.05).

NOTE: Access data table for Figure 4 at: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db260_table.pdf#4.

SOURCE: NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, 2013–2015. 
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 260 ■ October 2016

■  5  ■

Does when women expect to have their next child vary by the number of 

biological children they already have?

● The percentage of women who did not expect to have a child in the future increased with the 

number of biological children they already had (Figure 5).

● In 2013–2015, among women with no children, 22% did not expect to have a child, 12% 

expected to have a child within 2 years, 29% in 2–5 years, and 36% in more than 5 years 

from the time of interview. 

● Among women with one child, nearly one-half (48%) did not expect to have another child, 

22% expected to have a child within 2 years, 24% in 2–5 years, and 5% in more than

5 years. 

● Eighty-two percent of women who had two or more children did not expect to have more 

children.

Figure 5. Birth expectations and expected timing of next child among women aged 15–44, by current number of biological 

children: United States, 2013–2015

1

Significantly different from One child within the same time interval group (p < 0.05). 2

Significantly different from Two or more children within the same time interval group (p < 0.05). 3

All percentages are significantly different from one another (p < 0.05). 4

The percentage for Within 2 years was not significantly different from the percentage for 2–5 years. All other percentages are significantly different from one 

another (p < 0.05).

NOTE: Access data table for Figure 5 at: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db260_table.pdf#5.

SOURCE: NCHS, National Survey of Family Growth, 2013–2015. 
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 260 ■ October 2016

■  6  ■

Summary

NSFG has been measuring birth expectations since 1973, because this indicator provides an 

estimate of future family sizes and insight into future birth rates (5–8). In 2013–2015, 50% 

of women aged 15–44 expected to have a child in the future. This percentage has increased 

significantly since 2002. Women who have not yet had any children, younger women, and women 

who have never been married were more likely to expect to have a child in the future compared 

with other groups. Over time, the number of children that women expected to have has decreased 

slightly. In 2013–2015, women on average expected to have 2.2 children in their lifetime. The 

data also show that the timing of women’s expectations for a child varied by marital or cohabiting 

status and the number of children they already have. 

Definitions

Age: The respondent’s age at the time of interview. The recode variable used was AGER.

Birth expectations: The expectations that respondents have regarding future childbearing. 

The recode variable used to measure a respondent’s expectations for (additional) future births 

was INTENT. For currently pregnant women, INTENT refers to intentions after any current 

pregnancy. The recode variable used to measure the average number of (additional) births 

expected for each respondent was ADDEXP. For currently pregnant women, an additional birth 

was added to the original ADDEXP number. These expectations for future births, as reported at 

the time of interview, are distinct from reports of the intendedness at time of conception for each 

pregnancy.

Expectation of timing of future births: The raw variable used to measure how long each 

respondent plans to wait to have her first or next child was INTNEXT (for unmarried women) 

and JINTNEXT (for those cohabiting or currently married). For respondents who already have 

children, the items are phrased as “another child (in the future).” For respondents who have not 

yet had any children, the items are phrased as “a child (in the future).”

Marital or cohabiting status: The respondent’s informal marital status at the time of interview, as 

summarized in the RMARITAL recode. Categories include currently married; not married but 

living with an opposite sex partner (cohabiting); widowed, divorced, or separated for reasons of 

marital discord (and not currently cohabiting); and never been married, not currently cohabiting. 

Numbers of biological children already had: The total number of live births women had by the 

time of interview (PARITY recode). 
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 260 ■ October 2016

■  7  ■

Data source and methods

NSFG is a nationally representative survey of the U.S. household population, with in-person 

interviews conducted with men and women aged 15–44. Recent estimates in this report are 

based on data from the 5,699 women in the 2013–2015 NSFG. The fieldwork plan, interview 

content, and other survey procedures are similar to what was done in previous surveys (9–11). 

NSFG is jointly planned and funded by the National Center for Health Statistics and several other 

programs of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. All estimates in this report are 

weighted to reflect the U.S. household population aged 15–44 across the midpoint of 2013–2015 

interviewing (July 2014). More information on NSFG is available from: http://www.cdc.gov/

nchs/nsfg.htm.

Statistics for this report, including sampling errors, were produced using the SURVEY analysis 

procedures in SAS software version 9.3. Percentages were compared using two-tailed t tests 

at the 5% level. The difference between any two estimates is mentioned in the text only if it is 

statistically significant. In addition, a weighted least squares regression was used to test trends 

over time that involved more than two time points. The data presented in this report are bivariate 

associations that may be explained by other factors not controlled for in the analysis.

About the authors

Jill Daugherty and Gladys Martinez are with the National Center for Health Statistics, Division of 

Vital Statistics, Reproductive Statistics Branch.

References

1. Chuang CH, Weisman CS, Hillemeier MM, Camacho FT, Dyer A-M. Associating pregnancy 

intent with pregnancy: Prospective findings from the Central Pennsylvania Women’s Health 

Study (CePAWHS). Womens Health Issues 19(3):159–66. 2009. 

2. Moreau C, Hall K, Trussell J, Barber J. Effect of prospectively measured pregnancy 

intentions on the consistency of contraceptive use among young women in Michigan. Hum 

Reprod 28(3):642–50. 2013.

3. Hayford SR. The evolution of fertility expectations over the life course. Demography 

46(4):765–83. 2009. 

4. Gao G. Americans’ ideal family size is smaller than it used to be. Washington, DC: Pew 

Research Center. 2015. Available from: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/08/idealsize-of-the-american-family/.

5. Peterson LS. Birth expectations of women in the United States, 1973–88. National Center for 

Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 23(17). 1995. 

6. Martinez GM, Chandra A, Abma JC, et al. Fertility, contraception, and fatherhood: Data on 

men and women from Cycle 6 (2002) of the National Survey of Family Growth. National Center 

for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 23(26). 2006.
NCHS Data Brief ■ No. 260 ■ October 2016

7. Chandra A, Martinez GM, Mosher WD, et al. Fertility, family planning, 

and reproductive health of U.S. women: Data from the 2002 National Survey 

of Family Growth. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 

23(25). 2005.

8. Martinez G, Daniels K, Chandra A. Fertility of men and women aged 

15–44 years in the United States: National Survey of Family Growth,

2006–2010. National health statistics reports; no 51. Hyattsville, MD: 

National Center for Health Statistics. 2012.

9. Groves RM, Mosher WD, Lepkowski JM, Kirgis NG. Planning and 

development of the continuous National Survey of Family Growth. National 

Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 1(48). 2009.

10. Lepkowski JM, Mosher WD, Davis KE, et al. The 2006–2010 National 

Survey of Family Growth: Sample design and analysis of a continuous 

survey. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 2(150). 2010. 

11. Lepkowski JM, Mosher WD, Groves RM, et al. Responsive design, 

weighting, and variance estimation in the 2006–2010 National Survey of 

Family Growth. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 

2(158). 2013.

Suggested citation

Daugherty J, Martinez G. Birth expectations 

of U.S. women aged 15–44. NCHS data 

brief, no 260. Hyattsville, MD: National 

Center for Health Statistics. 2016.

Copyright information

All material appearing in this report is in 

the public domain and may be reproduced 

or copied without permission; citation as to 

source, however, is appreciated.

National Center for Health 

Statistics

Charles J. Rothwell, M.S., M.B.A., Director

Jennifer H. Madans, Ph.D., Associate 

Director for Science

Division of Vital Statistics

Delton Atkinson, M.P.H., M.P.H., P.M.P., 

Director

Hanyu Ni, Ph.D., M.P.H., Associate Director 

for Science

For e-mail updates on NCHS publication 

releases, subscribe online at: 

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/govdelivery.htm.

For questions or general information

about NCHS:

Tel: 1–800–CDC–INFO (1–800–232–4636)

TTY: 1–888–232–6348

Internet: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs

Online request form: http://www.cdc.gov/info

ISSN 1941–4927 Print ed.

ISSN 1941–4935 Online ed.

DHHS Publication No. 2017–1209

CS269826

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF 

HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 

National Center for Health Statistics 

3311 Toledo Road, Room 5419

Hyattsville, MD 20782–2064

OFFICIAL BUSINESS 

PENALTY FOR PRIVATE USE, $300

For more NCHS Data Briefs, visit:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs.htm.

FIRST CLASS MAIL 

POSTAGE & FEES PAID 

CDC/NCHS 

PERMIT NO. G-284