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5 AP PENDIX 12C. NATIONAL SHIPMENTS ESTIMATES FOR SMALL ELECTRIC

MOTORS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

12C. 1 INT RODUCTION

................................. ......................................................................... 2

12C. 2 ME THODOLOGY

.................................. ....................................................................... 2

12C. 3 RE QUESTED ACTION

............................. .................................................................... 2

12C. 4 CON TACT INFORMATION

.......................... ............................................................... 2

12C. 5 POLYPHASE SHIPMENT FIGURES

................... ........................................................ 3

12C. 6 CSIR SHIPMENT FIGURES

........................ ................................................................. 4

12C. 7 CSCR SHIPMENT FIGURES

........................ ................................................................ 4

LIST OF TABLES

Table 12C­ . Polyphase Small Electric Motors NEMA Shipment Data, 2000

........................ 3

Table 12C­ . Polyphase Small Electric Motors Estimated National Shipments, 2007

............ 3

Table 12C­ . CSIR Small Electric Motors NEMA Shipment Data, 2000

................................ 4

Table 12C­ . CSIR Small Electric Motors Estimated National Shipments, 2007

.................... 4

Table 12C­ . CSCR Small Electric Motors Estimated National Shipments, 2007

.................. 4APPENDIX 12C. NATIONAL SHIPMENTS ESTIMATES FOR SMALL ELECTRIC

MOTORS

March 24, 2008

12C. 1 INTRODUCTION

Context:

The Department of Energy (DOE) is conducting an energy­efficiency standards

rulemaking for small electric motors. The purpose of this rulemaking is to evaluate energyefficiency standards for small electric motors. To complete this standard, DOE must estimate

potential energy savings from new standard levels imposed. To do this accurately, DOE usually

bases any energy savings on national shipment estimates provided by manufacturers. A request

was submitted by a DOE contractor to NEMA on December 7, 2007 to request shipment data for

this purpose. However, NEMA has not received adequate data from its membership and thus

DOE must pursue an alternate approach.

12C. 2 METHODOLOGY

New Method Proposed:

For the Small Motors Determination Analysis published on July 10, 2006 (71 FR 38799),

NEMA provided shipment data on small electric motors to DOE. This data is now being used to

project an estimate of national shipments for 2007, instead of obtaining shipment specific data

from manufacturers. The result of this projection is shown on the attached pages. DOE invites

NEMA and/or its members to review and provide comment on this shipment estimate. Any and

all comment must be received by March 31, 2008, upon which time, the shipments estimate for

the ANOPR must be locked down. NEMA and its members will have an opportunity to

comment on the shipments estimate again once it is published by DOE later this year, however

for the purposes of completing the ANOPR analysis on schedule, DOE’s contractors must

prepare this estimate and finalize it by the 31 st of March.

12C. 3 REQUESTED ACTION

Action Required:

Please review the attached tables for reasonableness and comment by March 31, 2008

.

12C. 4 CONTACT INFORMATION

Contacts:

If you have any questions or comments, please contact:

Matthew Nardotti

Email: matthew.nardotti@navgantconsulting.com

Phone: (202) 481­754612C.5 POLYPHASE SHIPMENT FIGURES

Description: Polyphase MG­1 1987 general­purpose AC single­speed induction motors in 2­digit

NEMA frame size, open construction, rated for continuous duty. Average annual growth rate

calculated for polyphase motors (considering shipment data from 1990 through 1999) as 3.4%.

Table 12C­1. Polyphase Small Electric Motors NEMA Shipment Data, 2000

2­pole 4­pole 6­pole Total

1/4 HP * * * 9, 163

1/3 HP 2, 585 12, 899 3, 788 19, 272

1/2HP 2, 856 39, 501 6, 478 48, 835

3/4 HP 65, 405 47, 084 9, 729 122, 218

1 HP * 56, 783 * 84, 670

1 1/2 HP * 115, 638 * 124, 959

2­3 HP 10, 149 22, 384

­ 32, 533

441, 650

* Dat a withheld by NEMA due to insufficient number of manufacturers reporting for those ratings / poles.

Table 12C­2. Polyphase Small Electric Motors Estimated National Shipments, 2007

2­pole 4­pole 6­pole Total

1/4 HP 1, 967 7, 637 1, 967 11, 571

1/3 HP 3, 264 16, 289 4, 784 24, 338

1/2HP 3, 607 49, 884 8, 181 61, 671

3/4 HP 82, 596 59, 460 12, 286 154, 342

1 HP 17, 608 71, 708 17, 608 106, 925

1 1/2 HP 5, 885 146, 033 5, 885 157, 804

2­3 HP 12, 817 28, 268

­ 41, 084

557, 73512C.6 CSIR SHIPMENT FIGURES

Description: Capacitor Start Induction Run (CSIR) MG­1 1987 general­purpose AC single­speed

induction motors in 2­digit NEMA frame size, open construction, rated for continuous duty.

Average annual growth rate calculated for CSIR motors (considering shipment data from 1990

through 1999) as 1.1 %.

Table 12C­3. CSIR Small Electric Motors NEMA Shipment Data, 2000

2­pole 4­pole 6­pole Total

1/4 HP * 342, 064 * 882, 878

1/3 HP 354, 258 609, 264 551, 566 1, 515,088

1/2HP 465, 799 493, 151 301, 198 1, 260,148

3/4 HP * 385, 013 * 1, 121,644

1 HP 143, 571 53, 042

­ 196, 613

>1 HP 24, 892 23, 638

­ 48, 530

TOT AL 5, 024,901

* Dat a withheld by NEMA due to insufficient number of manufacturers reporting for those ratings / poles.

Table 12C­4. CSIR Small Electric Motors Estimated National Shipments, 2007

2­pole 4­pole 6­pole Total

1/4 HP 223, 615 384, 581 348, 160 956, 357

1/3 HP 383, 742 659, 971 597, 471 1, 641,183

1/2HP 504, 566 534, 194 326, 266 1, 365,025

3/4 HP 449, 108 475, 480 290, 405 1, 214,994

1 HP 155, 520 57, 456

­ 212, 976

>1 HP 26, 964 25, 605

­ 52, 569

TOT AL 5, 443,104

12C. 7 CSCR SHIPMENT FIGURES

Due to reporting policy guidelines, NEMA was unable to provide detailed shipment data on

Capacitor Start Capacitor Run (CSCR) shipments; however the Determination Analysis

published by DOE in 2006 indicates that approximately 5% of capacitor­start motor sales are

CSCR motors. Therefore, the estimate below simply uses a 19 to 1 ratio to scale CSIR units sold

to CSCR units sold.

Table 12C­5. CSCR Small Electric Motors Estimated National Shipments, 2007

2­pole 4­pole 6­pole Total

1/4 HP 11, 769 20, 241 18, 324 50, 335

1/3 HP 20, 197 34, 735 31, 446 86, 378

1/2HP 26, 556 28, 115 17, 172 71, 843

3/4 HP 23, 637 25, 025 15, 284 63, 947

1 HP 8, 185 3, 024

­ 11, 209

>1 HP 1, 419 1, 348

­ 2, 767

TOT AL 286, 479