9-i

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

9.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 9-2

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL EQUATIONS ............................................................................... 9-2

9.2.1 Shipments Model .................................................................................................... 9-3

9.2.2 Stock Events............................................................................................................ 9-3

9.2.2.1 Replacing Equipment ............................................................................... 9-4

9.2.2.2 New Equipment ....................................................................................... 9-4

9.3 DATA INPUTS .................................................................................................................. 9-5

9.3.1 Historical Shipments ............................................................................................... 9-5

9.3.2 Historical Shipments and Projected Building Stock Additions .............................. 9-6

9.3.3 Commercial Grocery Display Space and Market Saturation .................................. 9-9

9.3.3.1 Floor Space – New Construction ............................................................. 9-9

9.3.3.2 Market Shipments .................................................................................... 9-9

9.3.4 Equipment Utility.................................................................................................. 9-10

9.3.5 Equipment Price .................................................................................................... 9-10

9.3.5.1 Operating Costs ...................................................................................... 9-10

9.3.5.2 Discounted Costs ................................................................................... 9-10

9.4 RESULTS ......................................................................................................................... 9-10

REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................... 9-13

LIST OF TABLES

Table 9.3.1 Estimated Distribution of 2009 Linear Feet of Commercial Refrigeration Equipment 

Shipments Among New vs. Replacement Equipment ......................................... 9-7

Table 9.3.2 AEO2010 Forecast of New Food Sales and Foodservice Square Footage ............... 9-7

Table 9.3.3 Equipment Linear Dimensions Assumed for Shipments Analysis ........................... 9-8

Table 9.3.4 Percent of Shipped Linear Feet of Commercial Refrigeration Equipment ............... 9-8

Table 9.4.1 Forecasted Shipments of New and Replacement Commercial Refrigeration 

Equipment by Building Type, 2016−2045 (Base Case) .................................... 9-11

Table 9.4.2 Forecasted Shipments for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment, 2016−2045, by 

Equipment Type (Base Case)............................................................................. 9-11

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 9.1.1 Flow Chart Showing Inputs to the Shipments Model ............................................. 9-2
9-2

CHAPTER 9. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

9.1 INTRODUCTION

Commercial refrigeration equipment shipment numbers are key inputs to the national 

energy savings, net present value calculations, and the manufacturer impacts analysis. This 

chapter describes the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) methodology for estimating 

commercial refrigeration equipment shipments and annual equipment stocks for 2009 through 

2045. 

The Shipments Model results are driven primarily by historical shipment data for the

24 primary classes of commercial refrigeration equipment under consideration. Figure 9.1.1

outlines the structure of the Shipments Model. 

The model assumes that, in each year, the existing commercial refrigeration equipment 

stock either ages by 1 year or breaks. Broken equipment is replaced. In addition, new equipment 

can be shipped into new commercial floor space, and old equipment can be removed through 

demolitions (not shown in the diagram). 

Section 9.2 presents the mathematical formulation of the model, section 9.3 describes the

data input to the model, and section 9.4 presents the results for the base case energy conservation 

standard level scenario and discusses the development of higher standard scenarios. 

Figure 9.1.1 Flow Chart Showing Inputs to the Shipments Model

9.2 SHIPMENTS MODEL EQUATIONS

The Shipments Model is a description of commercial refrigeration equipment stock flows 

as a function of year and age. While 24 equipment classes are examined in the model, it is 

assumed that there is no coupling between the shipments of the various equipment classes, so the 

equations are applicable to each equipment class independently. 

DOE formulated the Shipments Model equations as updates of the distribution of stock in 

year t to year t+1 as a function of age a. DOE first converted the equipment units to linear feet of 

refrigerator/freezer space using national statistics on sales of equipment and representative

equipment size (linear feet). DOE uses this calculation of existing stock, and the average age of 

NEMS Food Services 

Bldg

Construction Forecast ARI Estimate of 

Shipments (2005)

Initial Replacement 

Shipments 

Initial Shipments to New 

Construction 

Initial CRE Stock

Estimated Lifetime 

of CRE Stock

Shipments to New 

Construction 

Replacement 

Shipments 

Total 

Shipments By 

Product Class

% Shipments by Product 

Class (2005)

CRE Stock 

by Product 

Class

NEMS Food Services 

Bldg

Construction Forecast ARI Estimate of 

Shipments (2005)

Initial Replacement 

Shipments 

Initial Shipments to New 

Construction 

Initial CRE Stock

Estimated Lifetime 

of CRE Stock

Shipments to New 

Construction 

Replacement 

Shipments 

Total 

Shipments By 

Product Class

% Shipments by Product 

Class (2005)

CRE Stock 

by Product 

Class

Shipments Estimates 

Based on Historic 

Shipments Data
9-3

the equipment, as a basis for calculating replacement sales. Then, DOE subtracted replacement 

sales from historical total sales statistics to calculate new sales of commercial refrigeration 

equipment. DOE forecasted new sales as a function of new construction of retail food sales and 

foodservice space. Sales of new and replacement equipment were recorded by the year sold, and 

each annual vintage is depreciated over the estimated life of the equipment. Sales in each year 

were allocated to the 24 equipment classes in proportion to their relative historical sales. 

9.2.1 Shipments Model

DOE uses two commercial refrigeration equipment stock categories. The category U0(t,a) 

is the stock of existing units. All units are assumed to have had normal repairs that do not affect 

the lifetime of the equipment. 

As discussed in chapter 7 of the preliminary technical support document (TSD), the 

lifetime of a unit is estimated to be 10 years in large food retailers and in all foodservice 

categories (full service restaurants, limited service restaurants, and other foodservice), and about 

15 years in small retailers, such as convenience stores. Also, the average age of the initial 

existing stock of equipment is assumed to be 5 years, based on the 10-year lifetime of a unit of 

equipment and annual replacements going back 10 years. The total stock of age a in a given year 

t is represented by

U(t,a) = U0 (t,a) Eq. 9.1 

Where:

U(t,a) = total stock of age a in a given year t, 

U0(t,a) = stock of existing units, 

a = age of stock (year), and 

t = year.

The shipments of new stock in a given year are Uship(t). By definition, the age of the 

equipment is zero in the year that it is shipped, so that Uship(t) = U(t,0). 

9.2.2 Stock Events

In the transition from year t to year t+1, two things could happen to the stock of 

commercial refrigeration equipment: 

1. existing equipment could break or be removed during a store renovation and be replaced, 

or 

2. the stock could simply age by 1 year.

In the model, early replacements (i.e., existing equipment that is replaced before it is 

broken) are not considered, and all broken equipment is assumed to be replaced. The following 

sections present the equations used to represent each possible event. 
9-4

9.2.2.1 Replacing Equipment

DOE determines the probability that commercial refrigeration equipment of age a from 

stock U0 will break or will be replaced using a Weibull survival distribution function 

PB0(a)=W(8,10.62) for large food sales and for foodservice applications. This results in a 10-

year average lifetime, a minimum lifetime of about 7 years, and a maximum lifetime of about 13

years, consistent with industry comments. The function PB0(a)=W(8,16) was used for small food 

sales outlets, i.e., convenience stores with and without gas stations. This results in an average 

lifetime of 15 years, with a minimum of about 9 years and a maximum of about 20 years, again 

consistent with industry comments. Similarly, the probability that equipment of age a from stock 

U1 will break is given by the same function PB1(a). These probabilities do not depend on the 

model year t. DOE defines the quantities of replaced equipment as 

UB(t,a) = PB0(a) × U0(t,a) Eq. 9.2

Where:

UB(t,a) = quantity of replacement units of age a in year t, 

PB0(a) = probability that stock of existing units of age a will break or will be replaced, 

U0(t,a) = stock of existing units of age a in year t, 

a = age of stock (years), and 

t = year.

All broken or obsolete units (removed during store renovations) are assumed to be 

replaced.

9.2.2.2 New Equipment

New commercial refrigeration equipment will be purchased to replace the broken units 

described above. Available information suggests that the purchase of new equipment for use in

new buildings is driven by the rate of construction of food sales and foodservice floor space. 

By definition, for each type of building: 

EFS(t+1) = EFS(t) + NFS(t) - DFS(t) Eq. 9.3

Where:

EFS(t) = the square footage of existing floor space in year t, 

NFS(t) = the square footage of new floor space added in year t, and

DFS(t) = the square footage demolished in year t. 

The linear footage of units installed in new buildings is 

UN(t) = UN(t-1) × A0 × NFS(t)/ NFS(t-1) Eq. 9.4
9-5

Where:

UN(t) = the number of units installed in new buildings in year t, and

A0 = an overall scale factor that accounts for the number of units covered by the standard, which 

are not used in all commercial building types; the default value for A0 is 1.0. 

DOE has no information on the variation in the market saturation of commercial 

refrigeration equipment by building type or over time. Therefore, in the model, the purchase of 

new equipment is driven by the construction of new floor space and the assumption that broken 

or removed equipment is replaced on a one-for-one basis. 

9.3 DATA INPUTS

9.3.1 Historical Shipments

Shipments data for commercial refrigeration equipment could not be obtained in a 

complete form from any one source; therefore, DOE used data from multiple sources to estimate 

shipments. The major sources were 2005 shipments data provided by the Air-Conditioning, 

Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) as part of its comments to the 2009 rulemaking 

Framework Document (ARI, No. 7 Exhibit B at p. 1, Docket # EERE–2006–BT–STD– 0126); 

Commercial Refrigeration Equipment to 2014 by Freedonia Group, Inc. (the Freedonia 2010 

report);

1 2008 Size and Shape of Industry by the North American Association of Food 

Equipment Manufacturers (NAFEM 2008 report);2 and Energy Savings Potential and R&D 

Opportunities for Commercial Refrigeration prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc., for DOE 

(NCI 2009 report). 3 Further details about these data sources can be obtained from chapter 3.

The AHRI 2005 shipments data was a compilation of shipment numbers provided by 

AHRI members, and as such did not represent the entire commercial refrigeration equipment 

market. However, the AHRI 2005 shipments data contained shipments explicitly broken down 

by DOE equipment class. The Freedonia 2010 report provided shipments data in terms of total 

dollar sales and number of units shipped. Shipments were split by market type (e.g., foodservice 

industry and food & beverage retail industry) and by certain equipment types such as open 

display cases, reach-ins, and beverage refrigeration. The NAFEM 2008 report provided shipment 

numbers and dollar sales values for refrigeration and ice machines used in the foodservice 

industry. Reach-in refrigerators and freezers, chest freezers, milk coolers, and ice-cream storage 

and dipping cabinets make up the majority of the commercial refrigeration equipment used in the 

foodservice industry. 

Because complete shipments data could not be obtained from a single source, DOE 

compiled data from all of the aforementioned sources and developed the 2009 shipment numbers 

using some basic assumptions. The Freedonia 2010 report contains historical data used to derive 

a year-to-year percentage change in the total commercial refrigeration equipment sales. DOE 

assumed that subsequent years’ shipments of the equipment reported in the 2005 AHRI summary

grew at the year-to-year growth rates reported by Freedonia, and used the percentage changes

from the Freedonia 2010 report to derive the 2009 AHRI shipment estimates from the AHRI 

reported shipments for the year 2005. 
9-6

The 2009 shipment numbers derived from the 2005 AHRI shipments data were modified 

for certain equipment classes using shipments data obtained for the other sources. (Chapter 3 of 

the preliminary TSD defines the acronyms used for the equipment classes in this section.) 

Shipments for equipment classes VCS.SC.M and VCS.SC.L were obtained from estimates from 

the NAFEM 2008 report. Shipments for equipment classes HZO.SC.I, HCT.SC.I, and HCS.SC.I 

were obtained based on estimates from the Freedonia 2010 report. Shipments for equipment class 

PD.SC.M were obtained based on estimates from the NCI 2009 report. As mentioned above, 

shipments by equipment class were available only from the 2005 AHRI data. To allocate the 

shipments to different equipment classes from the other sources, DOE made assumptions about 

the definitions of the equipment types and the market share split for certain equipment classes. 

Shipments numbers and assumptions have been withheld because the sources cited above are not 

public documents and are available only for purchase. 

9.3.2 Historical Shipments and Projected Building Stock Additions

Historical linear feet of shipped units depicts the annual amount of commercial 

refrigeration equipment capacity shipped and is an alternative way to express shipments data. 

DOE determined the linear feet shipped for any given year by multiplying each unit shipped by 

its associated average length, and then summing all the linear footage values. 

DOE converted the estimated 2009 shipments data in each equipment class to 

percentages of total shipped linear feet of commercial refrigeration equipment for use in the 

Shipments Model. This established the commercial refrigeration equipment market share 

attributed to each equipment class. DOE calculated the percent of shipped linear footage by

dividing the linear footage shipped for each equipment class by the overall linear footage shipped 

for all commercial refrigeration equipment covered in this rulemaking. 

Table 9.3.1 summarizes DOE’s estimated division of historical annual shipments into

new and replacement categories by building type. The distributions shown in Table 9.3.1 result 

from several discrete steps. First, equipment types were identified by the type of business they 

generally serve. For example, vertical open cases with remote compressors are associated with 

large grocers and multi-line retail stores. Remote condensing equipment is generally associated 

with large food sales stores, while self contained units are associated with food service and 

convenience or small food sales stores. When there was no strong association between the 

building type and equipment class, equipment was distributed across broader classes. Second, a 

ratio of new versus replacement was developed based on commercial floor space estimates (floor 

space estimates are discussed below). Using the expected useful life of commercial refrigeration 

equipment and commercial floor space stock, additions, and retirements, ratios were developed 

that yielded a ratio of new versus replacement stock for use in this analysis. Using these and

related factors (e.g., the division of foodservice into the three building types – limited service 

restaurants, full service restaurants, and other), DOE distributed commercial refrigeration 

equipment shipments among building types and new versus replacement shipments as shown in 

Table 9.3.1. 
9-7

Table 9.3.1 Estimated Distribution of 2009 Linear Feet of Commercial Refrigeration 

Equipment Shipments Among New vs. Replacement Equipment

Building Type Replacement New Total

Large Grocery / Multi-Line Retail 39.8% 9.3% 49.1%

Small Grocery / Convenience 11.8% 2.7% 14.5%

Limited Service Restaurants 9.3% 3.4% 12.7%

Full Service Restaurants 14.9% 5.5% 20.4%

Other 2.4% 0.9% 3.3%

Total 78.2% 21.8% 100.0%

Table 9.3.2 shows the forecasted square footage of new construction used to scale annual 

new commercial refrigeration equipment shipments. As the data on Table 9.3.2 shows, 

forecasted square footage additions to the building stocks vary from year to year, with the first 

few years exhibiting lower levels of growth due to the lingering impacts of the U.S. economic 

recession. The forecasted commercial refrigeration equipment shipments therefore show some 

variability as well, tracking the forecasted square footage floor space additions. The growth rates 

over the last 10 years of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) forecast (2026 through 2035) were 

used to extend the AEO forecast out until the year 2045 in order to develop the full 30-year 

forecast needed for the national impacts analysis (see TSD chapter 10). 

Table 9.3.2 AEO2010 Forecast of New Food Sales and Foodservice Square Footage 

Year New Construction

million ft2

Foodservice Food Sales

2009 44.525 31.931

2011 31.597 22.412

2016 49.933 35.990

2020 57.774 41.825

2025 61.521 44.524

2030 65.707 47.469

2035 69.711 50.255

Annual Growth 

Factor, 2026-2035 2.65% 2.77%

Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,

Annual Energy Outlook 2010, data file kdbou

DOE used the AHRI shipments data to derive shipped linear footage for each of the 24 

primary equipment classes. Table 9.3.3 presents the representative equipment class lengths used

for the conversion of per-unit shipments to linear footage within each equipment class.
9-8

Table 9.3.3 Equipment Linear Dimensions Assumed for Shipments Analysis

Equipment

Class

Assumed Length

ft

Basis

VOP.RC.M 10 Average of 8 ft and 12 ft, manufacturer interviews

VOP.RC.L 10 Average of 8 ft and 12 ft, manufacturer interviews

VOP.SC.M 4 Baseline equipment used for engineering analysis

SVO.RC.M 10 Average of 8 ft and 12 ft, manufacturer interviews

SVO.SC.M 4 Baseline equipment used for engineering analysis

HZO.RC.M 10 Average of 8 ft and 12 ft, manufacturer interviews

HZO.RC.L 10 Average of 8 ft and 12 ft, manufacturer interviews

HZO.SC.M 4 Baseline equipment used for engineering analysis

HZO.SC.L 4 Baseline equipment used for engineering analysis

VCT.RC.M 10 Average of 3-door and 5-door (30 in. per door), manufacturer interviews

VCT.RC.L 10 Average of 3-door and 5–door (3 in. per door), manufacturer interviews

VCT.SC.M 4 Engineering estimate

VCT.SC.L 3.5 Average of 1-door and 2-door freezer

VCT.SC.I 5 Baseline equipment used for engineering analysis

VCS.SC.M 4 Engineering estimate

VCS.SC.L 3.5 Average of 1-door and 2-door freezer

VCS.SC.I 5 Baseline equipment used for engineering analysis

HCT.SC.M 3.0 Engineering estimate

HCT.SC.L 3.0 Engineering estimate

HCT.SC.I 3.4 Baseline equipment used for engineering analysis

HCS.SC.M 4.0 Engineering estimate

HCS.SC.L 5.0 Engineering estimate

SOC.RC.M 8 Average of 4 ft, 8ft, 12 ft, all common equipment lengths

PD.SC.M 2.5 Baseline equipment used for engineering analysis

DOE then estimated the annual linear footage shipped for each of the 24 equipment 

classes. The shipments analysis relies on the 24 equipment classes to represent the commercial 

refrigeration equipment market. Table 9.3.4 shows the fraction of the linear footage shipped by 

each of these 24 equipment classes.

Table 9.3.4 Percent of Shipped Linear Feet of Commercial Refrigeration Equipment

Equipment 

Class*

Percentage of Linear 

Feet Shipped

Equipment 

Class

Percentage of Linear 

Feet Shipped

VOP.RC.M 10.81% SVO.SC.M 1.28%

VOP.RC.L 1.91% SOC.RC.M 2.45%

VOP.SC.M 0.86% HZO.RC.M 1.49%

VCT.RC.M 0.91% HZO.RC.L 4.69%

VCT.RC.L 12.64% HZO.SC.M 0.11%

VCT.SC.M 5.77% HZO.SC.L 0.23%

VCT.SC.L 2.93% HCT.SC.M 0.07%

VCT.SC.I 2.27% HCT.SC.L* 0.00%

VCS.SC.M 17.30% HCT.SC.I** 1.01%

VCS.SC.L 8.80% HCS.SC.M 5.22%

VCS.SC.I 0.08% HCS.SC.L 0.67%

SVO.RC.M 9.70% PD.SC.M 7.16%

*No shipments were estimated for HCT.SC.L

**HCS.SC.I was not analyzed as a primary class. 
9-9

9.3.3 Commercial Grocery Display Space and Market Saturation

The amount of commercial floor space is the main driver for commercial refrigeration 

equipment shipments and is appropriately one of the basic inputs into the Shipments Model. As 

discussed in section 9.2.2, the model divides commercial space into two components: space from 

new construction floor space (NFS), and existing floor space (EFS). 

For this analysis, commercial square footage with commercial refrigeration equipment

refers to both new and existing stock of buildings. 

9.3.3.1 Floor Space – New Construction

DOE took the projected floor space construction after the year 2009 from the National 

Energy Modeling System projection underlying AEO2010.

4 DOE extracted annual estimates of 

new floor space additions from an AEO2010 data file (kdbout) for the 2009 through 2035 period. 

As stated earlier, the last 10 years of the AEO forecast were used to develop growth rates used to 

extend the forecast to 2045. 

The total of new length of display case area is the estimated total shipments in linear feet

for 2009, divided between the food sales and foodservice sectors and multiplied by indexes of 

new construction of square feet for each building type. The index for each building type was 

developed by dividing floor space projections in each future year by the corresponding 2009 

value. All existing display space is presumed to be replaced when demolished.

9.3.3.2 Market Shipments

DOE used the above shipments data to estimate the market shipments in year t of each 

commercial refrigeration equipment class y, MKTSHIP(t,y), defined in terms of linear feet of 

display space occupied by the new and replacement shipments of equipment class y. Because the 

percent of shipments in each class is relatively constant over time and the lifetime of each class 

remains same, the ratio of shipments of a specific equipment class indicates the market share for 

that class, MKT(y). DOE estimated the MKT(y) for a particular equipment class to be a constant 

value equal to the average of the yearly percent historical shipments to that class. These 

percentages are reported in Table 9.3.4. 

MKTSHIP(t, y) = MKT(y) × (UN(t) + UB(t)) Eq. 9.5

Where:

MKTSHIP(t,y) = total market shipments, in linear feet of display space, of equipment class y 

in year t, 

MKT(y) = percentage of total market shipments in equipment class y (%),

UN(t) = total shipments to new buildings in year t, and

UB(t) = total replacement shipments in year t. 
9-10

9.3.4 Equipment Utility 

The equipment utility is a measure of the economic value of a linear foot of commercial 

refrigeration equipment to the customer. This is the value associated with energy savings.

Because there are insufficient historical data available on the commercial refrigeration 

equipment market to develop and calibrate a full supply and demand model, economic factors 

are used to calculate annualized cost and to calibrate market shares for the Shipments Model. 

These economic factors are discussed below. 

9.3.5 Equipment Price

Equipment price is the price paid by the customer for a unit of commercial refrigeration 

equipment. It includes both the purchase price of the equipment and the installation costs. DOE

converts the equipment price to a price per linear-foot-cooled based on the length of the 

equipment class.

As discussed in the engineering analysis (chapter 5) and the life-cycle cost and payback

period analysis (chapter 8), equipment prices in this analysis are a function of energy efficiency

level. DOE based equipment price projections on energy consumption level, but did not develop 

estimates of market trends in efficiency. DOE developed a mix of energy consumption levels for 

the base case (i.e., the case without new energy conservation standards) and for each candidate 

standard level envisioned. The efficiency mixes are discussed in detail in chapter 10. 

9.3.5.1 Operating Costs 

Operating costs consist of maintenance, repair, and energy costs. A detailed description 

of all the operating costs can be found in chapter 8. 

9.3.5.2 Discounted Costs

When purchasing commercial refrigeration equipment, an energy conscious customer

will consider the total lifetime cost of the equipment. Typically, these lifetime costs are 

discounted to represent the present value of these costs. DOE discounted the total operating costs 

(i.e., maintenance, repair, and energy costs) over the full lifetime of the equipment. Commercial 

refrigeration equipment lifetimes range from 1 to as many as 20 years. However, based on 

discussions with industry, the typical lifetime of commercial refrigeration equipment is 10 years

in large food retailers and 15 years in small retailers. This is because large grocery stores either 

undergo renovation or replace the refrigeration equipment for aesthetic reasons at roughly 

10-year intervals, but small food retailers usually try to make their equipment last longer and 

update it less frequently (see chapter 8 for further details). 

9.4 RESULTS

Table 9.4.1 shows the shipments forecast for the commercial refrigeration equipment 

classes at the base case energy consumption level (or Level 1) divided into new and replacement 

units for large and small food sales and foodservice outlets. Table 9.4.2 shows total shipments 

by equipment type. 
9-11

Table 9.4.1 Forecasted Shipments of New and Replacement Commercial Refrigeration 

Equipment by Building Type, 2016−2045 (Base Case) 

Building Type Thousands of Linear Feet Shipped by Year and Equipment Class

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Total

Large Grocery

– New 291 338 360 384 406 435 467 11,564 

– Replacement* 1,042 1,169 1,224 1,395 1,502 1,685 1,833 42,279 

Small Grocery

– New 86 100 106 113 120 128 138 3,414 

– Replacement* 301 294 323 338 352 385 411 10,276 

Foodservice

– New 303 351 373 399 423 452 485 12,026 

– Replacement* 699 848 920 1,114 1,240 1,444 1,613 33,869 

Total 2,722 3,099 3,307 3,742 4,043 4,530 4,947 113,429 

* Replacement includes equipment replaced from original stock (installed before the standards set by the 

current rulemaking takes effect) and the standards level equipment replaced in subsequent years.

Table 9.4.2 Forecasted Shipments for Commercial Refrigeration Equipment, 2016−2045, 

by Equipment Type (Base Case)

Equipment Class

Thousands of Linear Feet Shipped by Year and Equipment Class*

2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Cumulative

VOP.RC.M 294 335 358 405 437 490 535 12,265 

VOP.RC.L 52 59 63 71 77 86 94 2,164 

VOP.SC.M 23 27 28 32 35 39 42 970 

VCT.RC.M 25 28 30 34 37 41 45 1,031 

VCT.RC.L 344 392 418 473 511 572 625 14,333 

VCT.SC.M 157 179 191 216 233 261 285 6,539 

VCT.SC.L 80 91 97 110 119 133 145 3,329 

VCT.SC.I 62 70 75 85 92 103 112 2,573 

VCS.SC.M 471 536 572 647 699 783 856 19,618 

VCS.SC.L 240 273 291 329 356 399 436 9,986 

VCS.SC.I 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 88 

SVO.RC.M 264 301 321 363 392 440 480 11,007 

SVO.SC.M 35 40 42 48 52 58 63 1,453 

SOC.RC.M 67 76 81 92 99 111 121 2,775 

HZO.RC.M 41 46 49 56 60 68 74 1,691 

HZO.RC.L 128 145 155 175 190 212 232 5,318 

HZO.SC.M 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 125 

HZO.SC.L 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 259 

HCT.SC.M 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 81 

HCT.SC.L - - - - - - - -

HCT.SC.I 28 31 33 38 41 46 50 1,147 

HCS.SC.M 142 162 173 195 211 237 258 5,924 

HCS.SC.L 18 21 22 25 27 31 33 765 

PD.SC.M 195 222 237 268 290 324 354 8,123 

Total 2,677 3,048 3,253 3,680 3,977 4,455 4,865 111,562 

*Table 9.4.2 values include only equipment classes modeled in the engineering, life-cycle cost, and national impact analyses. 

Numbers do not add to the totals shown in Table 9.4.2 due to existence of small quantities shipped to other equipment classes. 

 As equipment purchase price increases with lower energy consumption levels, a drop in 

shipments could be expected relative to the base case. Although there is a provision in the 

Shipments Model spreadsheet for a change in shipments as the efficiency level increases (or 
9-12

energy consumption level decreases), DOE has no information with which to calibrate such a 

relationship. Therefore, for the preliminary analysis, DOE presumes that the shipments do not 

change in response to the higher efficiency levels that form potential candidate standard levels. 
9-13

REFERENCES 

1. Freedonia Group, Inc. Commercial Refrigeration Equipment to 2014. 2010. Cleveland, Ohio. 

Study 2261. <http://www.freedoniagroup.com/Commercial-Refrigeration-Equipment.html> 

2. North American Association of Food Equipment Manufacturers. 2008 Size and Shape of 

Industry. 2008. Chicago, IL. 

3. Navigant Consulting, Inc. Energy Savings Potential and R&D Opportunities for Commercial 

Refrigeration. 2009. Prepared by Navigant Consulting, Inc. for the U.S. Department of 

Energy, Washington, DC. 

4. U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2010. 2010. Washington D.C. DOE/EIA-0383(2010).