FAA-APO-01-3

FAA LONG-RANGE

AEROSPACE FORECASTS

FISCAL YEARS

2015, 2020 AND 2025

OFFICE OF

AVIATION POLICY AND PLANS

JUNE 2001
 

2

FAA LONG-RANGE

AEROSPACE FORECASTS

FISCAL YEARS

2015, 2020 AND 2025

I. SUMMARY

To assure consistency in agency planning, the Office of Aviation Policy and 

Plans provides an extension of its annual 12-year forecasts of aviation 

demand. Although forecast values are shown for specific years, year-to-year 

fluctuations are difficult to forecast precisely. Therefore, the projections 

reflect the trend of average conditions expected during the forecast period. 

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) annual 12-year forecast is 

utilized for both manpower and facility planning as well as for policy and 

regulatory analysis. The latest 12-year forecast (FAA-APO-01-1, FAA 

Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2001-2012, March 2001) provides projections 

of aviation activity and FAA workload measures through the year 2012. 

Periodically, a need arises for projections of aviation demand and activity 

beyond the published horizon. This document was developed to meet these 

needs, and contains projections for commercial and general aviation aircraft 

fleet and hours, air carrier and regional/commuter passenger enplanements 

(domestic and international), and air carrier air cargo revenue ton miles 

(RTMs) 

The economic assumptions used in developing these extended forecasts are as 

follows:

• economic growth will slow slightly relative to the immediate 12-year 

period—2.9 percent versus 3.1 percent annually;

• inflation will be comparable to the immediate forecast period—averaging 

2.5 percent annually for both the immediate and extended periods;

• minimally lower real fuel prices—a decrease of 0.4 percent annually 

compared to an decrease of 3.3 percent annually; and

• long-term interest rates will decline only slightly beyond 2012.
 

3

These assumptions translate into slower growth of aviation activity and FAA 

workload measures during the extended 13-year period (2013 to 2025) than was 

forecast for the immediate 12-year period (2000 to 2012). 

 AVERAGE ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGES 

 2000 - 2012 2013 - 2025 

AVIATION ACTIVITY

PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

 U.S. DOMESTIC 

 AIR CARRIERS 3.6 3.7

 REGIONALS/COMMUTERS 5.7 4.2

 INTERNATIONAL* 5.3 4.7

 

AIR CARGO FREIGHT RTMs

 DOMESTIC 5.0 4.8 

 INTERNATIONAL 6.7 5.0

AIRCRAFT FLEET

 AIR CARRIER 3.0 3.5

 REGIONAL/COMMUTER** 3.9 2.6

 CARGO JETS 4.2 3.3

 GENERAL AVIATION 0.9 0.8

 

HOURS FLOWN

 AIR CARRIER 3.9 3.8

 REGIONAL/COMMUTER 4.6 4.0

 GENERAL AVIATION 2.2 1.5

PILOTS

 TOTAL 2.0 1.5

 INSTRUMENT RATED 1.7 1.5

FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES

TOWER OPERATIONS*** 2.4 2.0

INSTRUMENT OPERATIONS*** 2.2 2.2

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED 2.5 2.5 

FLIGHT SERVICE STATIONS (0.3) (0.4)

* Total international passengers to and from the United States—U.S. and 

Foreign Flag Carriers. 

** Includes regional jets.

*** Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers.
 

4

II. LONG-RANGE FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

The long-range aviation forecasts are based on assumptions concerning the 

future of the commercial and general aviation industries and on the latest 

macroeconomic projections. For the purposes of this report, the forecast 

period refers to the long-range outlook, particularly the 2013 to 2025 

period. Much of the discussion assumes some familiarity with the forecasts 

contained in FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2001-2012, dated March 

2001. Copies of this report can be obtained from the FAA Statistics and 

Forecast Branch, APO-110, by calling (202) 267-3355. The Executive Summary 

and 49 forecast tables can be found on the Internet at 

http://api.hq.faa.gov/apo_pubs.htm/.

A. Economic Assumptions

The long-range economic forecasts are based on an average of the economic 

projections developed by DRI/McGraw-Hill (DRI) and WEFA Inc. (WEFA) for the 

years in which the two forecasts overlap. The DRI economic projections 

extend through the year 2024 and the WEFA economic forecasts extend through 

the year 2019. Both sets of economic forecasts were developed utilizing 

trend projections and assume that the economy experiences relatively stable 

growth throughout the entire forecast period. Essentially, these projections 

represent the average of the possible paths that the U.S. economy could 

follow. Using trend projections assumes that: (1) no major shocks will occur 

(the current rapid run-up in oil prices is assumed to be a temporary 

condition); (2) economic policies remain stable; (3) national and 

international markets do not experience dramatic shifts in either the supply 

or demand for economic goods and services; and (4) the forecasts are not 

capacity constrained, and assume that the FAA and the airlines will develop 

cost efficient solutions to mitigate any delay/congestion problems. These 

long-term economic projections represent appropriate points from which to 

evaluate the effects of variations about the mean of expected values of 

various activity measures, transportation services, or FAA workload measures.

The consensus long-range economic outlook from DRI and WEFA is relatively 

unchanged from the 2000 projections. The two forecasting services are fairly 

consistent in their expectations for growth in economic output and prices. 

The only major difference is in the outlook for 30-year Treasury Bonds 

yields. DRI expects a decline from 5.9 percent in 2000 to 4.4 percent in 

2001 and 2002, and then the rate rises back to 5.9 percent by 2025. WEFA, on 

the other hand, projects a general decline in yields throughout the 25-year 

forecast period, from 5.9 percent in 2000 to 5.1 per-cent in 2025.

The latest DRI and WEFA forecasts are both positive and consistent in their 

expectations for continued Federal budget surpluses during the long-term 

forecast horizon. In 2001, as in the last two years, the Treasury Department 

will be using part of the budget surplus to pay down the national debt. To 

the extent that the Treasury continues to use a portion of the current and 

expected budget surpluses to pay down the outstanding national debt, it will 

further reduce each succeeding year’s debt and interest payments. This, 

together with the expected reduction in military spending and reduced growth 

in entitlement expenditures, will contribute to a continuing decline in 
 

5

government spending as a percent of GDP, and result in a more positive 

environment for sustained economic growth.

Real Gross Domestic Product

Currently, the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a moderate rate during the 

25-year forecast period. Growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for price changes and expressed in 1996 dollars, is projected to 

average 2.9 percent annually over the extended 13-year (2012 – 2025) forecast 

period. This is comparable to both the historical rate of growth (2.9 percent between 1974 and 2000) and the economic projections for the immediate 

12-year forecast period (a rate of 3.1 percent between 2000 and 2012). 

During the entire 25-year forecast period between 2000 and 2025, real GDP is 

expected to increase at a 3.0 percent average annual rate. 

Consumer Price Index

Inflation is not expected to return to the high rates experienced during the 

latter half of the 1970s and early 1980s (8.7 percent annual growth between 

1972 and 1982) during the entire 25-year forecast period. The opinion of the 

major economic forecasting services is that there will be little upward 

pressure from real wage rates and commodity prices, and that the Federal 

Reserve is committed to controlling inflation while providing for sufficient 

growth in the money supply to ensure growth in output. The consumer price 

index is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent a 

year during the 25-year time period--2.5 percent during the immediate and 

extended forecast periods. 

Fuel Prices

Fuel prices, as measured by the Oil and Gas Deflator, are forecast to 

increase at an annual rate of 0.7 percent over the 25-year forecast period—

less than the expected overall inflation rate. Between 2000 and 2012, 

nominal fuel prices are projected to decrease at an annual rate of 0.9 percent, a decline of 3.3 percent annually in real terms. Between 2012 and 

2025, nominal fuel prices are projected to increase at a 2.1 percent annual 

rate, but a decrease of 0.4 percent in real terms.

Interest Rates

Long-term nominal interest rates are tied to inflationary expectations. The 

Federal Reserve is expected to pursue a monetary policy that keeps inflation 

in check and allows for sufficient monetary aggregate growth to sustain 

economic output gains. With budget deficit pressures apparently under 

control, and with the positive long-term outlook for the rate of inflation, 

long-term interest rates are expected, on average, to decline during both the 

immediate and extended forecast periods. Interest rates are expected, on 

average, to decline slightly during the immediate 12-year forecast period—

down from 5.9 percent in 2000 to 5.6 per-cent in 2012. During the extended 

forecast period, long-term interest rates are expected to further decline to 

5.5 percent, not significantly different than the average rate experienced 

during the 1990’s.
 

6

 

ECONOMIC VARIABLES FORECASTS

OIL AND GAS DEFLATOR 30-YEAR GOVERNMENT BONDS

REAL GDP CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

2

4

6

8

10
 

7

B. Operational Variables

The long-range forecasts of various operational variables discussed below 

are, for the most part, a continuation of the trends discussed in greater 

detail in FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2001-2012. As with the 

economic projections, these forecasts reflect an average trend of the 

possible paths that the various operational variables could follow. They 

assume that (1) no major shocks will occur (such as a rapid run-up in oil 

prices), (2) economic policies remain stable, and (3) no dramatic shifts in 

either the supply or demand for aviation services. These long-term 

projections represent appropriate points from which to evaluate the effects 

of variations about the expected values of various activity measures, 

transportation demand and services, or FAA workload measures.

Air Carrier Passenger Yield

The current 12-year and extended 13-year forecasts assume that real domestic 

passenger yields (expressed as revenue per passenger mile) will continue the 

historical long-term gradual downward trend. Real domestic passenger yields 

are projected to decline by 1.6 percent annually over the 25-year period. 

The downward trend in real domestic yields is based on the assumptions of 

continued strong competition in the industry, and continued improvements in 

efficiency and productivity.

There has been a long-term decrease in international real yields similar to 

that experienced in the domestic market. However, real yields in 

international markets are generally lower than in the domestic market, 

because of lower operating costs. These lower costs are associated with 

longer average stage length and with the use of larger aircraft, which tend 

to have lower seat mile costs. It is assumed that over the forecast period 

productivity and competition will expand in international markets, which will 

continue to push real yields down. Market efficiencies will be achieved with 

the use of more productive aircraft, expanded open-skies agreements, and 

extended global alliances. Total international real yields for U.S. flag 

carriers are expected to decline 0.8 percent through 2012. Over the 25-year 

period, international yields, adjusted for inflation, are expected to decline 

0.7 percent a year.

Average Aircraft Size

The increase in the average seat size of the U.S. domestic fleet will be 

relatively small through the middle years of the immediate 12-year forecast 

period, averaging just under 0.4 seats per year between 2001 and 2006. After 

2006 many of the smaller hush-kitted stage-2 aircraft will be replaced with 

generally larger stage-3 aircraft, the result being an increase in the 

average aircraft size of about one seat per year through 2012. Over the 

entire 12-year forecast period, the average seat size of the domestic fleet 

is expected to grow by just over 0.7 seats per year--from 139.3 to 147.4. 

The average seating capacity of the domestic air carrier fleet is expected to 

continue to increase over the extended 13-year forecast period. The new 

aircraft entering the fleet during this period are expected to be generally 

larger than the aircraft being replaced. Therefore, the average seating 

capacity of the domestic air carrier fleet is expected to increase by one 
 

8

seat annually over the extended forecast period, reaching 160.4 seats in 

2025.

The average aircraft size of the U.S. air carrier international fleet is 

expected to gradually increase over the 25-year forecast period as the U.S. 

carriers expand non-stop city-pair service into deep South America, Europe, 

and Asia. The carriers--over this extended period--will begin to use larger 

two-engine and four-engine two-aisle aircraft. The average size of the 

aircraft is expected to increase from 234.1 seats in 2000 to 265.1 seats in 

2025.

The average seating capacity of regional/commuter aircraft is forecast to 

increase by 0.7 seats annually between 2001 and 2012 (from 37.5 to 

46.0 seats). This trend is expected to continue over the extended forecast 

period, with the average seating capacity of regional/commuter aircraft 

averaging approximately 55.1 seats in the year 2025. This reflects the 

continued introduction of larger high-speed turboprop and regional jet 

aircraft (up to 78 seats) into the regional/commuter fleet. The extended 

range and greater speed offered by these aircraft are expected to expand the 

market potential for the regional industry, and continue to blur the 

distinction between regional/commuters and the large commercial operators.

Load Factor

Domestic air carrier load factors are projected to remain at their current 

historical high levels throughout the remainder of the immediate and extended 

forecast periods. During the past several years, airline scheduling policies 

have allowed air carriers to rapidly adjust capacity levels to more closely 

correspond to changes in passenger demand. This ability to make rapid 

adjustments to meet changing demand conditions has enabled the airlines to 

push up load factors to all-time highs. It is expected that present fleet 

plans will provide capacity levels that should maintain the air carrier load 

factors at between 70 and 71 percent throughout the forecast period.

As in domestic markets, the wide range of aircraft capable of international 

flight also allows U.S. airlines to adjust their international capacity 

levels to changing levels of demand. The international load factor is also 

forecast to remain relatively stable during the 25-year forecast period, 

decreasing slightly from 76.0 percent in 2000 to 75.8 percent in 2025.

Regional/commuter load factors are projected to increase from 59.0 percent in 

2000 to 62.8 percent in 2012. During the extended forecast period, 

regional/commuter load factors are expected to rise to approximately 

66.2 percent by 2025. The higher load factors result from the continued 

introduction of larger high-speed turboprop and regional jet aircraft and the 

need to cover the higher cost per seat mile associated with these aircraft. 
 

9

OPERATIONAL VARIABLES FORECASTS

REAL DOMESTIC 

PASSENGER YIELD

DOMESTIC 

PASSENGER

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

DOMESTIC AIR CARRIER AIRCRAFT

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

REGIONAL/COMMUTER AIRCRAFT

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

5

10

15

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

FISCAL YEARS

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

PERCENTAGE OF SEATS OCCUPIED

AIR CARRIER REGIONAL/COMMUTER

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

FISCAL YEARS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

FISCAL YEARS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT
 

10

III. LONG-RANGE AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Forecasts of various measures of aviation activity for 2000 and 5-year 

increments between 2000 and 2025 are provided in Table 1, page 14. A 

discussion of some of these measures of aviation activity follows in the 

paragraphs below. 

A. Passenger Enplanements and Cargo 

Air Carrier

Air carrier demand, as measured by domestic passenger enplanements, is 

projected to continue to grow faster than the general economy. For the 

period 2001 to 2012, domestic passenger enplanements are forecast to increase 

at an average annual rate of 3.6 percent compared to a 3.1 percent annual 

growth rate in real GDP. Over the extended forecast period (2013-2025), 

domestic passenger enplanements are projected to increase at an average 

annual rate of 3.7 percent compared to real GDP growth of 3.0 percent 

annually. 

Forecasts of total international passenger traffic to and from the U.S. (U.S. 

and foreign flag carriers), are provided between the United States and three 

world travel areas--Atlantic, Latin America (including Mexico and the 

Caribbean), and the Pacific/Far East--as well as for U.S./Canadian 

transborder traffic. Total passenger traffic between the United States and 

the rest of the world is expected to grow from 139.2 million in 2000 to 

466.9 million in 2025, an average annual growth rate of 5.0 percent. Passenger 

traffic in the Latin American markets is expected to post the strongest growth 

at 5.9 percent annually through 2025. The second fastest growing market will 

be the Pacific market which is expected to grow at 5.6 percent annually during 

the same time. The Atlantic market is projected to grow at 4.1 percent 

annually through 2025, as is Transborder traffic for the 25-year forecast 

period. 

Regionals/Commuters

The regional/commuter industry is projected to continue to grow at a 

relatively faster pace than the large air carriers through both the immediate 

and extended forecast periods, averaging 5.7 and 4.2 percent, respectively. 

A large part of the growth during the early years of the immediate forecast 

period is expected to result from a continuation of the shift of low-density, 

short-haul markets from the larger air carriers to their commuter code-share 

partners. However, most of the growth during the extended forecast period is 

expected to be generated from new markets created by the expanded use of 

regional jet aircraft.

The introduction and popularity of regional jets is expected to open up new 

growth opportunities in thin, intermediate range markets that cannot be 

served economically with large jet aircraft. The speed and range of the 

regional jet also offers the opportunity for more point-to-point (hub bypass) 

operations in markets which are currently served only via connecting flights 

through large hubs. There are currently 14 regional/commuter operators 
 

11

operating regional jet aircraft. This, together with the public preference 

for jet aircraft, should ensure that the regional/commuter industry should 

continue to grow more rapidly than the large air carriers. 

Air Cargo

The air cargo forecast discussed here is comprised of domestic and 

international revenue freight/express carried by U.S. commercial air carriers 

and is measured by revenue ton-miles (RTMs). Air cargo is moved in the 

bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both 

scheduled and non-scheduled service.

In 2000, combined domestic and international RTMs flown by U.S. commercial 

air carriers totaled 26.9 billion. By 2012 this figure is projected to reach 

53.8 billion, an average annual increase of 5.9 percent. During the extended 

forecast period, total domestic and international freight/express is 

projected to total 101.0 billion RTMs, an average annual increase of 

5.0 percent. Over the entire 25-year period, growth in total freight/express 

RTMs is expected to average 5.4 percent annually.

Domestic freight/express RTMs are forecast to increase from 12.1 billion in 

2000 to 40.3 billion in 2025, an average annual increase of 4.9 percent for 

over 25-year forecast period. International freight/express RTMs are 

forecast to grow faster rate than domestic RTMs, increasing from 14.8 billion 

in 2000 to 60.8 billion in 2025, averaging 5.8 percent growth annually for 

the 25-year forecast period. This expectation is based on the projected 

strong economic growth in world GDP, especially in the Latin American and 

Asian regions.

B. Aircraft Fleets and Hours Flown 

Commercial Air Carriers

The commercial air carrier passenger jet fleet is forecast to increase at an 

annual rate of 3.0 percent from 4,417 aircraft in 2000 to 6,313 aircraft in 

2012. By far the largest increase, in terms of number of aircraft, is 

projected to occur in the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category, which is 

expected to grow by an average of over 152 aircraft (3.7 percent) annually. 

By 2012, the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category is expected to total 

5,129 units and account for 81.2 percent of the fleet. This trend is also 

expected to continue throughout the extended forecast period.

Between 2013 and 2025, the air carrier fleet is forecast to increase at an 

average annual rate of 3.5 percent, reaching a total of 9,881 aircraft. 

Again, the largest growth in the fleet is expected to occur in the two-engine 

narrowbody aircraft category. By 2025 this category is forecast to grow to 

7,979 units and still account for almost 81 percent of the fleet. 

The cargo jet fleet is projected to increase at an annual rate of 4.2 percent 

during the immediate 12-year forecast period, from 1,073 aircraft in 2000 to 

1,760 in 2012. During the extended 13-year forecast period, the cargo jet 

fleet is forecast to increase at a 3.3 percent average annual rate reaching 

2,674 aircraft by 2025. Over the entire 25-year forecast period, the cargo 

jet fleet is forecast to grow at a faster average annual rate than the 

passenger fleet (3.7 percent compared to 3.3 percent), reflecting the 
 

12

expected higher sustained growth in cargo traffic--especially international 

traffic. 

The number of hours flown by the large commercial passenger and cargo jet 

aircraft is forecast to increase by 3.9 percent annually between 2001 and 

2012, and by 3.8 percent annually between 2013 and 2025. The immediate and 

extended range fleet forecasts imply that U.S. air carriers will use larger 

aircraft and continued high load factors to accommodate increasing passenger 

demand. The forecasts of hours flown imply that the average utilization of 

the U.S. fleet will increase gradually over the 25-year forecast period. 

The regional/commuter fleet is expected to grow from its current 2,312 aircraft in 2000 to 5,100 by the year 2025. This is an average annual growth 

rate of 3.3 percent over the 25-year forecast period, or approximately 68 

aircraft annually. This includes the smaller regional jets (30 to 70 seats) 

which will be introduced into the fleet in significant numbers over the 

forecast period. By comparison, regional/commuter flight hours are forecast 

to increase at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent during the same time 

period--from 3.8 million hours in 2000 to 10.9 million in 2025.

General Aviation Aircraft

In 2000, general aviation completed its sixth year of operation following the 

enactment of the General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994. During this 

period the industry has posted significant positive results: 254,000 new jobs 

have been created; production of general aviation aircraft has increased 

100 percent; revenues from the export of general aviation aircraft have 

doubled; investment in research and development by general aviation companies 

has increased 150 percent; and the number of student pilots is growing again. 

Based on the results of the 1998 General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity 

Survey, the active general aviation fleet and hours flown have increased for 

4 consecutive years. Additionally, general aviation activity counts at 

combined FAA and contract towers and en route centers have also increased 

significantly over this period. 

The number of active general aviation aircraft is expected to increase from 

221,213 aircraft in 2000 to 245,965 in 2012, and then expand to 272,800 by 

2025. This represents an average annual growth of 0.9 percent during the 

immediate forecast period and 0.8 percent over the extended forecast period. 

The piston engine portion of the general aviation fixed-wing aircraft fleet 

is forecast to increase by 0.6 percent during the immediate forecast period 

and 0.5 percent over the extended forecast period. Fixed-wing turbine 

powered general aviation aircraft are expected to grow at a faster rate than 

the piston powered aircraft, increasing 3.0 percent annually between 2001 and 

2012, and by 2.2 percent during the 2013 to 2025 period. The higher growth 

rate for the turbine portion of the fleet is based on the expectations of a 

greater business and corporate use of general aviation aircraft in an 

expanding U.S. economy. 

Growth in general aviation flight hours is forecast to increase at a faster 

rate than the active fleet. General aviation activity is very sensitive to 

changes in fuel price and variations in the rate of economic growth. Based 

on the assumptions of sustained economic growth, relative stability in fuel 

prices, and the continued growth in fractional ownership programs and 

corporate flying, it is expected that aircraft utilization rates will return 

to or surpass the higher levels experienced prior to the 1990-1991 economic 

recession. As such, general aviation flight hours are forecast to increase 
 

13

from 32.1 million in 2000 to 41.7 million in 2012, and to 50.6 million in 

2025-- 2.2 and 1.5 percent annual growth, respectively.

The positive forecasts for general aviation fleet and flight hours are 

heavily dependent on the assumptions related to continued economic growth and 

price stability. However, equally important to future growth are continued 

investment in plant expansion and production by general aviation 

manufacturers and the success of industry programs, such as “GA Team 2000,” 

to foster the growth in number of student pilots. If the general aviation 

industry falters in its efforts to stimulate the production of new general 

aviation products and services, and/or the growth in the number of student 

pilots, the outlook for the active fleet, hours flown, and general aviation 

activity at FAA air traffic facilities could be considerably lower than the 

current projections.

C. Number of Pilots

The total pilot population is forecast to increase from 648,539 in 2000 to 

996,600 by the year 2025, an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent over 

the 25-year forecast period. Much of the growth results from the continuing 

demand for airline transport pilots. Additionally, recent industry program 

initiatives designed to promote the benefits of general aviation flying to 

businesses and the public, to stimulate growth in the number of new student 

pilots, and to develop an improved flight training infrastructure are also 

expected to contribute to the growth in the pilot population. During this 

same time period, the number of instrument rated pilots is expected to 

increase from 315,100 to 463,600. The percentage of instrument rated pilots 

decreases from 48.6 percent in 2000 to 46.5 percent in 2025 because of the 

projected larger increases in student pilots relative to the total pilot 

population.

D. Total Aviation Activity

Total civil aircraft activity at towered airports (267 FAA and 192 contract 

in 2000) and non-towered airports (based on projections for just under 4,000 

public use airports in the Terminal Area Forecast database) is forecast to 

reach 156.2 million by the year 2025, an average annual growth of 0.9 percent 

over the activity level forecast for 2012 (138.9 million operations). This in 

turn represents an average annual growth rate of 1.2 percent over the 120.5 

million total aircraft operations recorded in 2000.

Commercial aircraft operations (the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) 

at all U.S. airports, towered and non-towered, are projected to increase from 

29.7 million in 2000 to 38.0 million in 2012, and to 47.4 million in 2025. 

These forecasts imply an average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent over the 

immediate forecast period, and 1.7 percent over the extended forecast period.

The number of general aviation operations at towered and non-towered airports 

is forecast to increase from 90.9 million in 2000 to 101.0 million in 2012 

and to 108.8 million in 2025. The average annual growth rate for the 

immediate forecast period is 0.9 percent and 0.6 percent for the extended 

forecast period. Much of the growth is the result of increased use of the 

turbine fleet for business/corporate related flying.
 

14

TABLE 1

LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

AVIATION DEMAND AND ACTIVITY

 

ACTUAL MARCH 2001 FORECAST LONG-RANGE FORECAST

2000 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Enplanements and Air 

Cargo (In Millions)

Enplanements

 Air Carrier

 Domestic 604.1 620.7 712.2 859.6 1,042.1 1,260.7 1,481.9

 International* 139.2 146.3 181.3 234.2 297.4 375.9 466.9

 Regional/Commuter 79.6 84.1 107.2 139.8 179.3 221.2 263.1

Freight/Express RTMs 26.9 28.5 36.6 48.5 62.7 80.5 101.0

Aircraft Fleets

(In Thousands)

Air Carrier-Large Jets 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.9 7.0 8.4 9.9

Cargo-Jet Aircraft 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.7

Regional/Commuter 2.3 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.6 5.1

 Regional Jets 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.9

 Turboprops 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2

General Aviation 193.6 195.6 203.3 211.4 219.7 228.5 235.4

 Piston Engine 172.8 174.1 179.0 184.0 189.3 195.3 199.5

 Turbine Engine 13.2 13.6 15.7 18.2 20.6 22.9 25.1

 Helicopter 7.6 7.9 8.6 9.2 9.8 10.3 10.8

Hours Flown

(In Millions)

Air Carrier 14.4 14.7 17.0 20.9 25.6 30.9 36.9

Regional/Commuter 3.8 4.0 4.8 6.0 7.6 9.2 10.9

General Aviation 32.1 32.8 36.2 40.2 43.8 47.2 50.6

Active Pilots

(In Thousands)

Total 648.5 665.9 728.9 797.9 868.0 934.8 996.6

Instrument Rated 315.1 321.4 345.5 372.8 401.5 432.4 463.6

Estimated Civil

U.S. Operations

(In Millions)

Commercial 29.7 30.5 33.2 36.6 40.0 43.7 47.4

General Aviation 90.9 91.7 95.0 99.3 103.5 106.3 108.8

* Total international passengers to and from the United States—U.S. and Foreign 

Flag carriers
 

15

AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEET GENERAL AVIATION FLEET

AIR CARRIER

DOMESTIC ENPLANEMENTS

REGIONAL/COMMUTER

PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

FISCAL YEAR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

THOUSANDS OF AIRCRAFT

AIR CARRIER REGIONAL/COMMUTER

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

PISTON TURBINE/ROTOR/OTHER

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

0

500

1000

1500

2000

DOMESTIC INTERNATIONAL
 

16

IV. LONG-RANGE WORKLOAD MEASURE FORECASTS

Forecasts of FAA workload measures by user groups for 2000 and 5-year increments between 2001 and 2025 are provided in Table 2, page 17. A discussion 

of the forecasts follows in the paragraphs below.

A. Towered Operations

At the end of FY 2000 the number of FAA towers totaled 267, down from 402 in 

1994. During this same period of time, the number of FAA contract towers has 

increased from 33 to 192. An additional 29 contract towers are expected to 

be added in 2001, bringing the total number of contract towers to 221 (no 

FAA towers are slated to be converted to contract tower status in 2001). 

Given the uncertainty about current and future year conversions and 

additions, the forecasts presented in this document are combined forecasts 

independent of the distinction between FAA and contract tower status. 

Aircraft operations at combined FAA and contract towered airports are 

forecast to total 91.5 million in 2012 and 118.5 million in 2025--an average 

annual growth rate of 2.2 percent over the 25-year forecast period. Most of 

the growth is expected to come from commercial activity which is projected to 

grow 2.8 percent annually during the immediate forecast period and 2.7 

percent annually during the extended forecast period. The slower growth in 

commercial activity relative to enplanements (3.6 and 3.7 percent during the 

immediate and extended forecast periods) is due to a combination of continued 

high load factors, larger aircraft, and longer passenger trip lengths.

Although regional/commuter enplanements increase at a much faster rate than 

the larger air carriers over the 25-year forecast period (4.9 percent 

compared to 3.7 percent), commuter/air taxi activity increases at a 2.4 

percent annual rate compared to air carrier growth of 3.0 percent annually. 

This slower commuter/air taxi activity growth is largely due to the large 

numbers of the regional jet aircraft that are expected to enter the 

regional/commuter fleet over the forecast period. As such, regional/commuter 

average aircraft size, load factors, and passenger trip lengths all increase 

at significantly faster rates than do those of the larger air carriers. 

General aviation activity, which accounted for 58.0 percent of combined tower 

activity in 2000, grows at a considerably slower pace relative to commercial 

activity over the 25-year forecast period--2.3 and 1.6 percent, respectively, 

during the immediate and extended forecast periods. In the year 2025, 

general aviation is expected to account for just over 54.1 percent of 

combined tower activity. Military activity is projected to remain constant 

at the 3.2 million operations forecasted for 2002 through the balance of the 

immediate and the extended forecast periods.
 

17

B. Instrument Operations

Instrument operations at combined FAA and contract towered airports are 

forecast to total 69.2 million in 2012 and 92.4 million in 2025, an average 

annual growth rate of 2.2 percent during both the immediate and extended 

forecast periods. Most of the growth is expected to come from commercial 

activity, which is projected to grow 2.7 percent annually during both the 

immediate and extended forecast periods. Air carrier instrument activity is 

forecast to grow 3.0 percent annually during the immediate forecast period 

and 2.9 percent during the extended forecast period. Commuter/air taxi 

activity is forecast to increase at a 2.3 percent during the immediate 

forecast period and 2.4 percent over the extended forecast period. 

General aviation activity is projected to increase at a slower pace, 

averaging 1.9 percent through the immediate forecast period and 1.8 percent 

during extended forecast periods. Military activity is forecast to remain 

constant at the 3.6 million operations recorded in 2000. 

Commercial activity is expected to increase from 53.1 percent of total 

instrument activity at combined FAA and contract towers in 2000 to 59.6 percent by the year 2025.

C. ARTCC Aircraft Handled

The number of aircraft handled at FAA en route traffic control centers is 

forecast to reach 61.7 million in 2012 and 84.5 million in 2025, an average 

annual growth rate of 2.5 percent for both the immediate and extended time 

periods. Much of the growth occurs in the number of commercial aircraft 

handled, which increases by 2.9 and 2.8 percent, respectively, over the two 

forecast periods. The number of air carrier aircraft handled increases by an 

average annual rate of 3.0 percent over the 25-year forecast period—or just 

under 3.1 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively, over the immediate and 

extended time periods. The number of commuter/air taxi aircraft handled is 

forecast to increase by 2.3 percent annually during the immediate forecast 

period and 2.4 percent over the extended forecast period—averaging just over 

2.3 percent over the entire 25-year period.

The number of general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en route centers 

increases at a slower rate over the two forecast periods, 1.9 and 1.8 percent 

over the respective forecast periods. The number of military aircraft 

handled is forecast to remain constant at the 4.2 million recorded in 2000 

through 2025. 

By the end of the 25-year forecast period, commercial activity is expected to 

account for 78.6 percent of the total center activity, up from 71.9 percent 

in 2000. 
 

18

D. Flight Services

The number of services provided by FAA flight service stations is forecast to 

total 29.5 million in 2012 and 28.4 million in 2025, an annual decline of 

0.3 percent over the 25-year forecast period. The projected decline in 

services provided by FAA flight service stations reflects both the fully 

consolidated flight service station system, and more significantly, the 

greater use of automated and alternative sources for flight services that are 

not provided directly by the FAA flight service stations.

The average annual growth rates for each of the three flight service 

categories for the immediate and extended forecast periods are: flight plans 

originated: up 0.5 and 0.3 percent; pilot briefs: down 0.7 and 0.6 percent; 

and number of aircraft contacted; down 1.5 percent for both forecast periods.

Automated services provided through the Direct User Access Terminal System 

(DUATS) are forecast to grow throughout the forecast periods. DUATS 

services are projected to increase to 20.7 million in 2012 (2.7 percent 

annual growth) and to 28.2 million in 2025 (2.4 percent annual growth). 

During the 25-year period, the combined FSS and DUATS services are forecast 

to increase at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent. 

These forecasts of FSS and DUATS services assume that there will be no change 

in the current definitions of flight service measures nor any change in the 

manner in which they are delivered to the general aviation pilot. There is, 

however, significant uncertainty concerning the impact of technology on the 

set of flight services to be provided by the FAA in the future. As more 

specific information becomes known about the future flight service system the 

forecasts will be adjusted accordingly. 
 

19

TABLE 2

LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES

(In Millions)

ACTUAL MARCH 2001 FORECAST LONG-RANGE FORECAST

Tower Operations* 2000 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Total 68.7 71.0 79.2 87.9 97.2 107.7 118.5

Itinerant 50.2 51.9 57.6 64.4 71.9 80.4 89.1

Air Carrier 15.2 15.7 17.6 20.5 23.9 27.9 31.6 

Commuter/Air Taxi 10.8 11.1 12.1 13.7 15.4 17.3 19.5

General Aviation 22.8 23.8 26.4 28.7 31.1 33.6 36.4

Military 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

Local 18.5 19.1 21.6 23.5 25.3 27.3 29.4

General Aviation 17.0 17.6 19.9 21.8 23.6 25.6 27.7

Military 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7

Instrument Operations*

Total 53.0 54.1 59.1 66.2 74.1 83.1 92.4

Air carrier 16.5 17.0 19.2 22.3 26.0 30.4 34.4

Commuter/Air Taxi 11.6 11.9 12.8 14.5 16.3 18.4 20.7

General Aviation 21.3 21.7 23.5 25.8 28.2 30.8 33.7

Military 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

ARTCC Aircraft Handled

Total 46.0 47.0 51.8 58.6 66.5 75.6 84.5

Air Carrier 25.0 25.6 29.0 33.7 39.4 45.9 52.1

Commuter/Air Taxi 8.1 8.3 8.9 10.1 11.4 12.8 14.4

General Aviation 8.7 8.9 9.7 10.6 11.6 12.7 13.9

Military 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

FSS Services

Total 30.5 30.4 30.0 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.4

Pilot Briefs 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.8 6.6

Flight Plans Filed 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5

Aircraft Contacted 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2

DUATs 15.0 16.2 18.5 20.1 23.0 25.7 28.2

* Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers.

Note: Totals may not add due to independent rounding.
 

20

FAA WORKLOAD FORECASTS

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED FLIGHT SERVICES

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