From: Eckman, Tom [mailto:teckman@nwcouncil.org] Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 8:28 PM To: Caskey, John; 'Rosenstock, Steven'; Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; snadel@aceee.org; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATIm etals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net; tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Anto nio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L; tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton .com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com; rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com; carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; gr eg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; Sco ttB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com; kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Matthew Nardotti; Michael Rivest; Zhimei Luo; Creevy, Jim; mwaltner@nrd c.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@ pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsasap.org; jmauer@standardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

### John, Then we agree, electric vehicle charging doesn't materially impact the analysis or discussions and utilities do need to watch loading in "Prius" neighborhoods. Tom Eckman Sent from Tom's DROID 503.803.5047 

### -----Original message----- From: "Caskey, John" < Joh_Caskey@nema.org > To: "Eckman, Tom" < teckman@nwcouncil.org >, "'Rosenstock, Steven'" < SRosenstock@eei.org >, "Cymbalsky, John" < John.Cymbalsky@EE.Doe.Gov >, "Meyers, Aaron" < Aaron.Meyers@CooperIndustries.com >, "Nadel, Steve" < snadel@aceee.org >, Bruce R Hirsch < Bruce.R.Hirsch@bge.com >, Robert Berman < bermaneconomics@gmail.com >, Jerry Hodge <jhodge@howard-ind.com > Cc: " Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com " < Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com >, " jerry.schoen@aksteel.com " <jerry.schoen@aksteel.com >, "Savitz, Maxine (EMAB)" < maxinesavitz@aol.com >, " mhyland@appanet.org " < mhyland@appanet.org >, " Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com " < Raymond.Polinski@atimetals.com >, " maheshsampat@ bellsouth.net " < maheshsampat@ bellsouth.net >, " tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com " < tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com >, " dbrender@cda.copper.org " < dbrender@cda.copper.org >, " James.Lass@cleco.com " < James.Lass@cleco.com >, " chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com " < chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com >, " frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com " < frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com >, " ted.johnstone@c ogentpowerinc.com " < ted.johnstone@c ogentpowerinc.com >, "Trujillo, Antonio" < Antonio.Trujillo@CooperIndustries.com >, "Moore, Jack C" < Jack.Moore@CooperIndustries.com >, "Corkran, Jerry L" < Jerry.Corkran@CooperIndustries.com >, " tballo@earthjustice.org " < tballo@earthjustice.org >, " carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com " < carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com >, " eduardorobles@eaton.com " < eduardorobles@eaton.com >, "Marchetti, Emily (CONTR)" < Emily.Marchetti@EE.Doe.Gov >, "Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR)"< Jeremiah.Freeman@ee.doe.gov >, "Raba, Jim" < Jim.Raba@ee.doe.gov >, " DYoung@energysolution.com " < DYoung@energy-solution.com >, " rick.anderson@faypwc.com " < rick.anderson@faypwc.com >, " bsmith@federalpacific.com " < bsmith@federalpacific.com >, " rgreeson@federalpacific.com " < rgreeson@federalpacific.com >, " carlos.gaytan@ge.com " < carlos.gaytan@ge.com >, " artrosenfeld@gmail.com " < artrosenfeld@gmail.com >, " greg.coulter405@gmail.com " < greg.coulter405@gmail.com >, " ned.efbrush@gmail.com " < ned.efbrush@gmail.com >, Richard Parker < richardparkerdc@gmail.com >, " Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com " < Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com >, "Cohen, Daniel" < Daniel.Cohen@hq.doe.gov >, Phil Hopkinson < phopkinson@hvolt.com >, " cabolduc@lbl.gov " < cabolduc@lbl.gov >, " gjrosenquist@lbl.gov " < gjrosenquist@lbl.gov >, " kcoughlin@lbl.gov " < kcoughlin@lbl.gov >, " ScottB@LVMetals.com " < ScottB@lvmetals.com >, " dave.millure@metglas.com " < dave.millure@metglas.com >, " kwinder@mleainc.com " < kwinder@mleainc.com >, " jrossetti@mlgw.org " <jrossetti@mlgw.org >, " brian.coffey@navigant.com " < brian.coffey@navigant.com >, " caitlin.johnson@navigant.com " < caitlin.johnson@navigant.com >, " matthew.nardotti@navigant.com " < matthew.nardotti@navigant.com >, " mrivest@navigant.com " < mrivest@navigant.com >, " zhimei.luo@navigant.com " < zhimei.luo@navigant.com >, "Creevy, Jim" < Jim.Creevy@Nema.org >, " mwaltner@nrdc.org " < mwaltner@nrdc.org >, " rroy@nrdc.org " < rroy@nrdc.org >, " robert.saint@nreca.coop " < robert.saint@nreca.coop >, " vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com " < vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com >, " gbf1@pge.com " < gbf1@pge.com >, " chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com " < chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com >, " ahofmann@publicpower.org " < ahofmann@publicpower.org >, " pkumar@publicpower.org " < pkumar@publicpower.org >, " adelaski@standardsASAP.org " < adelaski@standardsasap.org >, " jmauer@standardsasap.org " <jmauer@standardsasap.org >, " wes.patterson@us.abb.com " < wes.patterson@us.abb.com >, " chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com " < chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com >, " thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com " < thomas.patzner@us.sc hneider-electric.com >, " charlied@uus.org " < charlied@uus.org > Sent: Sat, Nov 19, 2011 01:09:30 GMT+00:00 Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

### There are two fundamental problems with the Council’s analysis. First, the analysis looks at both 110 volt 15 amp charging and 220 volt 30 amp charging. Level 1 charging only requires less than 2 kW and may not si gnificantly impact transformer loading. However, most EV proponents today are looking at Le vel 2 charging (up to 20 kW) or even Level 3 charging (over 20 kW). The analysis only looks at impacts at 6 kW not the potential 20 kW. The higher kW can impact existing transformer loading. Second, the average kW impact on EV’s may be relatively small. But some transformers in affluent areas (high Prius adoption) may be over loaded while transformer loading in less affluent areas may not increase. Typical distribution systems in Virginia have roughly 6-8 15 kW homes connected to a 75-100 kVA transformer. If just two or three of these 6-8 homes charge EV’s at the same time using 6kW chargers, that increased load can cause transformer failure even if the average load increase in the region is small. This can be particularly bad with electric heating load s during evening hours. I personally don’t think that EV loading on transf ormers will significantly impact our analyses and discussions, but I do think that utilities will need to carefully track the penetration of EV’s on individual circuits and tran sformers; particularly with Le vel 2 charging. John F. Caskey, CEM Assistant Vice President, Industry Operations

### National Electrical Manufacturers Assoc. (NEMA) 1300 North 17th Street - Suite 1752 Rosslyn, VA 22209 john.caskey@nema.org 703-841-3233 Voice 703-841-3333 FAX 703-350-6886 Cell From: Eckman, Tom [ mailto:teckman@nwcouncil.org ] Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 6:54 PM To: 'Rosenstock, Steven'; Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; Caskey, John Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com ; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com ; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); mhyland@appanet.org ; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com ; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net ; tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com ; dbrender@cda.copper.org ; James.Lass@cleco.com ; chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com ; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com ; ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com ; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L; tballo@earthjustice.org ; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com ; eduardorobles@eaton.com ; Marchetti, Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com ; rick.anderson@faypwc.com ; bsmith@federalpacific.com ; rgreeson@federalpacific.com ; carlos.gaytan@ge.com ; artrosenfeld@gmail.com ; greg.coulter405@gmail.com ; ned.efbrush@gmail.com ; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com ; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov ; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov ; kcoughlin@lbl.gov ; ScottB@LVMetals.com ; dave.millure@metglas.com ; kwinder@mleainc.com ; jrossetti@mlgw.org ; brian.coffey@navigant.com ; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com ; matthew.nardotti@navigant.com ; mrivest@navigant.com ; zhimei.luo@navigant.com ; Creevy, Jim; mwaltner@nrdc.org ; rroy@nrdc.org ; robert.saint@nreca.coop ; vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com ; gbf1@pge.com ; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com ; ahofmann@publicpower.org ; pkumar@publicpower.org ; adelaski@standardsASAP.org ; jmauer@standardsasap.org ; wes.patterson@us.abb.com ; chad.kennedy@us.schneiderelectric.com ; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com ; charlied@uus.org Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections Aaron/Steve R., et al: As part of developing the last Pacific Northwest Power Plan, th e Council analyzed the potential impact of electric vehicles on PNW loads through 2030. We created three scenarios, ranging from a low market share of 20% of cumulative new sales by 2030 to a high of 48% of cumulative new sales by 2030. For comparison, my review of the spreadsheet that John sent shows EV’s and PHEV’s comprising just over 4 % of all new vehicle sales between 2010 and 2030, so our “low” case scenario is five times as high as the one assumed in the AEO. Bottom line, is that under the Council’s low case scenario, PNW “off-peak” load s would increase about 800 MW (4% above the base forecast) while un der the high case they would increase by just under 2000 MW (10% above the base forecast). Both scenarios assumed that 95% of the charging would take place “off-peak.” Given this rather modest impact in off-peak demand (In the PNW peak loads are typically 1.8 times off-pe ak loads) it would seem very unlikely that a