$2 “III

EXHIBIT 17

CAPITAL AND ANNUAL OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS
FOR LOCALIZED SCENARIOS

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO COSTS (IN THOUSANDS OF 1976 DOLLARS)
ANNUAL OPERATING)
iO NO. TITLE ITEM CAPITAL ‘AND MAINTENANCE!
1 Expanded Express Park and Ride Lots Express | $0/1,620 $248
Bus Service in Mixed Express Bus Service 3,168 1,199@
Freeway Traffic; 3,168/4,788 1,447
Favorable Impacts
2 Freeway Lane Reserved | Reserved Lane 100 220
for Buses and Carpools; | Park and Ride Lots 0/1,620 _ 248
Favorable Impacts Express Bus Service __ 3,630 _13N@_
3,720/5,350 1,839
3 Ramp Metering Ramp Metering 1,134 a4
and Bus By-Pass Lanes; Bus By-Pass Ramps 460 _
Favorable Impacts Express Bus Service 3,630 1,371@
Park and Ride Lots 0/1,620 248
5,224/6,844 1,703'
4 Reserved Bus/Pool Lane, | Ramp Metering 1,134 84
Ramp Metering , and Reserved Lane 100 220
Bus By-Pass Lanes; Bus By-Pass Ramps 460 _—
Model! Impacts Express Bus Service 3,168 1,199@
Park and Ride Lots 0/1,620 248
4,862/6,482 1,751@

@ This represents the incremental annual operating and maintenance costs of providing bus service beyond existing
bus service.
Note: The cost projections have been prepared on the basis of the assumptions set forth in Appendix B.
The actual costs of the above strategies will depend upon the specific setting in which they are implemented.


+» metered freeway access ramps with bus by-pass lanes.

Arterial Priority Treatment for High Occupancy Vehicles

Documentation of Past Experience

In most cases, the available documentation for strategies involving the
priority treatment of high occupancy vehicles on arterials was unsatisfactory
(see Exhibit 4) for the same reasons as cited for the freeway priority strate-
gies. Adequate before-and-after data for critical travel variables were un-
available. Project monitoring was frequently qualitative and project evalu-
ation activities, when present at all, were not focused on overall travel and
air quality improvement impacts. Finally, transit ridership data are not
usually available on a basis which would permit link-specific evaluation of
projects confined to specific urban arterial segments.

Assessment of Strategy Impacts and Potential

For the reasons cited above, it is difficult to make reliable quantitative
assessments of the travel and air quality impact performance of the spe-
cific priority arterial strategies. Generally though, arterial strategies
have potential for improving localized CO air quality, especially in congested
downtown areas which are more directly served by arterials than by freeways.

Overall, the potential which arterial strategies offer for improving local-
ized CO air quality seems to be less than the. potential offered by freeway
stra‘egies for the following reasons:

. the amount of travel affected by arterial strategies tends to be
smaller on a project-by-project basis--although this is partially
offset by the greater number of arterial streets on which improve-
ments might be made;

. traffic signal and other delays encountered on arterials (but
not freeways) tend to dilute the travel time savings achieved
by preferential treatment of high occupancy vehicles;

. turning vehicles may traverse the priority lane--thereby
inhibiting its effectiveness;

. lane restrictions on arterials are more difficult to enforce, also

tending to dilute the travel time advantages for high occupancy
vehicles; and

II.6


Air Quality Impacts
of
Transit Improvement,
Preferential Lane,

and
Carpool /Vanpool Programs

FINAL REPORT

prepared for

Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Transportation and Land Use Policy
in cooperation with
U.S. Department of Transportation
EPA Contract No. 68-01-3912

March 1978


e¢ “III

EXHIBIT 22
ESTIMATED IMPACTS FOR NINE REGIONAL SCENARIOS IN A LARGE URBAN AREA:

REGIONAL NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSIONS

33
TONS

TONS*



actions under different circumstances in urban areas. This possibility
is suggested by the literature review in Section II and may change the
relative ranking of scenarios analyzed in this’ report.

REGIONAL SCENARIOS

The VMT, emission, fuel consumption, and cost impacts of the ten region-
al TSM programs are summarized in Exhibit 28. Reductions in total regional
VMT in the range of 1.0 to 1.9 percent are attributable to scenarios 11, 12,
and 17 through 20 which involve carpool and vanpool programs focusing on
large employers. These reductions correspond to reductions of 3 to 6.5
percent in weekday work trip VMT. This represents a substantial shift
of low occupancy auto trips to transit, carpools, and vanpools during peak
travel periods, which will reduce congestion and conserve energy as shown
in Exhibit 28. These same scenarios also are estimated to yield the largest
reductions in regional HC, NO,, and CO emissions.

Scenarios 13 through 17, which involve the implementation of reserved
lanes on multiple radial freeways or arterials in a region, generally resulted
in total regional and work trip VMT reductions of less than 0.5 percent and
1.5 percent, respectively. The small reductions in VMT are in large part re-
lated to the limited size of the peak period radially-oriented CBD travel mar-
ket in most large urban areas. For example, home to work trips and VMT
comprise approximately 20 percent and 30 percent of total weekday regional
person trips and VMT, respectively. Travel survey data suggests that only
15 percent of home to work trips are oriented to the CBD of urban areas ex-
ceeding 1 million population. However, those urban areas with especially
large percentages of CBD-oriented travel could experience higher reductions
in VMT than those estimated in this study.

Despite their limitations in reducing regional air pollution emissions, the
freeway reserved lane strategies show considerable potential for reducing
peak period travel congestion along radial travel corridors when applied under
appropriate travel conditions. These strategies can contribute to reductions
in CO concentrations along heavily traveled freeways and can also contribute
to reductions of vehicular travel within CBD's,

Exhibit 29 illustrates (using HC emissions) that scenarios 11 and 12, which
involve major employer carpool and vanpool programs, are particularly cost-
effective in reducing regional air pollution emissions. Scenarios 13 through
17 which incorporate express bus service and reserved freeway or arterial
lanes in multiple corridors are less cost-effective than scenario 12 in reducing
HC emissions. The combination of carpool and vanpool programs with express

Iv.6


pollutants. The chemical reactions producing oxidants are complex and de-
pend upon many factors such as prevailing meteorological conditions and the
topographic, land use, and industrial characteristics of an urban area,

The distinction between the CO and oxidant pollutants is important in that
different TSM actions are generally required to effectively address localized
as opposed to regional air quality problems, For example, a TSM program
to implement a reserved lane for carpools and buses on a single freeway may
reduce CO emissions in the vicinity of the freeway, but is unlikely to have a
noticeable impact on regional oxidant emissions. Similarly, a regional car-
pool program may contribute to a reduction in hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide
emissions (and, indirectly, oxidant concentrations), but generally is unlikely
to have any measurable impact on localized CO concentrations.

Legislative Requirements

With the passage of the Clean Air Act of 1970, a comprehensive national
program was undertaken to improve air quality, particularly in urban areas.
EPA promulgated air quality standards and undertook programs (1) to reduce
vehicle-related air pollutants through vehicle emission standards, emission
controls (e.g., retrofits), and inspection/maintenance programs, and (2) to
implement transportation policies, regulations, and projects to further re-
duce transportation-related emissions to meet air quality standards.

In accordance with the Clean Air Act of 1970, transportation control plans
were developed by state, regional, and local agencies as well as by EPA for
those urban areas which did not meet air quality standards. Unfortunately,
the transportation control plans were frequently developed on an ad-hoc basis
under very restricted time schedules, and did not have clearly defined agency
responsibilities and/or funding sources for ultimate implementation of actions
in the control plan. Consequently, the control plans generally had limited ef-
fect on improving air quality in applicable urban areas,

Several important legislative and procedural developments have occurred
since 1975 which are intended to remedy many of the important limitations of
the initial transportation control plans.

In September 1975, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and the
Urban Mass Transpor‘ation Administration (UMTA) jointly issued regulations
requiring that urban areas (through a designated metropolitan planning orga-
nization - MPO) develop both short-range and long-range transportation plans
to improve the transportation systems within urban areas.

L4


IV. SUMMARY AND ASSESSMENT OF SCENARIOS

This section summarizes and assesses the major impacts and the cost-
effectiveness of the localized and regional scenarios analyzed in Section III.
In addition, guidelines are presented for estimating the air quality and emis-
sion impacts of the transportation actions examined in this project. Impor-
tant factors which may affect the transferability of the project's findings to
specific locations are also discussed.

LOCALIZED SCENARIOS

Exhibit 26 summarizes the following impacts of the localized scenarios:
. impacts on peak hour vehicle volumes on affected highway facilipies;

« impacts on peak hour CO concentrations for both typical, good and
typical, poor dispersion conditions; and

. the capital and annual operating and maintenance costs of the sce-
narios.

The freeway-based scenarios (i.e., scenarios 1-8) are likely to achieve
reductions in overall peak hour corridor traffic volumes ranging between 1.5
percent and 7 percent. As illustrated below, the estimated reductions in peak
direction peak hour traffic volumes on the freeways in these scenarios can be
substantial if anticipated shifts to carpooling and transit are achieved.

Percent Reduction in Peak Direction

Scenario Peak Hour Freeway Vehicle Volumes!
1 3.2
2 13.7
3 6.7
4 N.A.?
5 14.6
6 3.8
7 8.4
8 8.4

lthese values are taken from the travel impact summary, Exhibit 10, appear-
ing in Section III.

*Because of the breakdown in freeway flow projected in scenario 4, it is not
meaningful to report a change in peak hour volume.

IWVv.l


When estimating the effectiveness of such strategies for improving
air quality, the following factors should be considered:

. the greatest percentage gains tend to be in areas where the
base transit share is relatively small;

. VM and associated emission reductions may be offset
to some extent by the alternate use of automobiles left
home by commuters;

. in most areas, transit can effectively serve only a
limited number of origins and destinations;

. ridership gains usually contain a large percentage of trips
which were induced, previously made by walking, or pre-
viously made as an auto passenger;

. ridership gains are often greatest in off-peak rather than
peak periods, reducing the localized air quality improve-
ment potential of such gains; and

. air pollution reductions resulting from transit ridership
gains are partially offset by additional bus emissions
associated with the service increases.

Transit strategies focused on intra-CBD travel for large urban regions
might attract significant ridership. However, the air quality improvements
achieved by such strategies are likely to be limited because:

. the majority of ridership increases are associated with
induced travel and tripmakers who formerly walked or
were auto passengers;

» avery large portion of such ridership increases are
during off-peak travel periods; and

. improved service levels must be carefully balanced against
bus utilization for reasons of cost and net air quality impact.

Other CBD strategies not considered in this report (e.g., auto free zones,

area licensing, transit malls, and parking management) may be capable of
achieving a greater reduction in CBD CO concentrations.

II.16


TABLE AS
{CONTINUATION 6)

ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
AND PROCEDURES

BASIS OR SOURCE

COMMENTS

‘That portion of any affected VMT estimated to exceed the
1.1 value for V/C was assumed diverted to siternate arter
routes operating at E level af service. in addition, anather 28%
(ot this diverted VMT) was also adder
total as an approximation of the additio
with the route diversions.

The 28% routs diversion circuitry factor
was based on (a) an assumed additional
travel of % mile each way becausa of

the diversion: (b) a 9 mite erterial length;
and (c) an assumed 20% of the artarish
tangth operating st E level of service
{those portions fram which the diversions
are most likely),

M,_ TRAVEL SHIFTS FOR INDIVIDUAL SCENARIOS

A, CARPOOL/VANPOOL PROGRAM SHIFTS

‘The travel shifts resulting from emplayer carpaol/vanpoo! pro-
grams ware calculated using the methodology and assumptions
‘of section |, 8 of this table in al regional scenarios containi
a carpool/vanpcol program,

8, FREEWAY AND ARTERIAL CORRIDOR SHIFTS

ication freewey or arterial corridor strategy
oF more of the
srratagies or combination programs in the ten localized sce-
aries,

When an exact match (in terms of strategy and assumed impact

level ~ madest or favorable) existed between the corridor com-

poneat of a regional scanerio and one of the localized scenarios,

than the agonal coridar VMT impacts ware estimated at
Hows:

for each specific mode-to-mode vehicle volume shift esti-
‘mated in the localized scenario, an anelagaus mode-to-
mode VMT shift is estimated for the regional scer

the percent of bese “affected” source made VMT shifting
«exch case is assumed to be the same as
percent vehicle volume shift in the localized scenario:

VMT reductions result because the average vehicle occu-
pancy of the “receiving” mode is higher than that af the
sures mode.

For same regional scenarios, an exact match with ons of the
localized scenarios did not exist, In these cases, adjustments
in the most clasely matching focalized scenario shifts were
made, as follows:

© Scooario 15; Ta simulate the modest impacts assump-
tion for this strategy, for which only a favarable impact
localized scenario countarpart exists, travel shifts resulting
from 2.30% ‘of 40%) final corridar bus modal
split were used.

Scenario 17; To simulate the modest impacts assumption
for this strategy, for which only a favorable impact iacalized
seenario counterpart exists (Scenario 2), travel shifts resulting
from a 55% increase in affected express bus VMT and 2 65%
increase in affected carpool VMT were usad in place of the
100%/100% assumed shifts in Scanerio 2.

Analytical assumptions,

‘Travel impact assumptions,

For those scenarios with “modest” in-
steed of “favorable” impact assumptions,
the base (“favorable”) travel impacts are
sealed down by a factor of / (correspond-
ing to an essumed haifing in the program
participation rates).

The $5%/65% values reflect the assumption
that carpooling will tend to be more attrac:
tive than express bus under modest ime:
conditions. Thess vaiues alsa yield approxi-
mately the same modest/favorable impact
ratio for scenario pair 17 and 18 as achiev
for scenario parr 13 and 14,



EXHIBIT 7

LOCALIZED SCENARIOS SELECTED FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS (Cont'd)

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO
ILLUSTRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS ON
3 rme DIAGRAMS STRATEGY OR PROGRAM IMPLEMENTED CHANGES IN MODAL USAGE**
7 | Contrafiew Bes Lane, c 10 Mile, 6 Lane Freeway; Off-Peek Direction (Moderately Favorable Impacts)
Expanded Expras Bus Contrafiow Lena Reserved for Expren Suset
Service, and Parkand- © 125% Increase in Freeway Expres,
Ride Low; Faverable Exponded Froewey Expres Bus Service Bes Ridership
Dering Pook Periods
© Ne tneresse in Freeway Carpoots
Three 500 Space Partand-Ride Lots ta
Corridor
# | Sonenton Su Laon, c ‘Same os Seanaria 7, excapt: Same es Scenario 7
Earned Serve TO%/30% Olrectionsl Split of Peak Hoe
Farwenylse Kaladi Freeway Traffic Assumed Instand of 6OX/
| stadever tae 40% (Assumed in Other Scenarios)
9 | Recarved Arterial Medion 0 10-Mile, § Lane Artarial; Reversible Median (Mederstaly Favorable Impacts)
Lane for Exprees Bena; Loge Reserved for Expres Bones
Favorable impacts © Express Bus Ridership Achieved Whiek
Now Express Bus Service st Reduced Fares Yields Overall (Local Pus Expres)
Bus Modal Split of 40% in
‘Sigoel Pre-Emption for Expres Bese” Corridor
‘Two 280 Specs Park-and-Ride Lots ia Corridor
10 | Comtrafow Curb Lane e 1 Mile Segment, Puir of Ore-Way 4 Lane (Moderately Favoreble Impacts)
for Local Basa on Pair ‘Artarieis; Contraflow Curb Lene Reserved for
‘of One-Wey Artorils; Local Buses ‘© 15% Increese in Local Bus Ridership
Favorable impacts:
Express dure Do Nat Use Contrafiow Curb
Lane

SEE EXHIBIT 8 FOR ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAMS OF THE PROTOTYPE HIGHWAY FACILITIES
“SEE APPENDIX A FOR FURTHER DETAIL ON METHODOLOGY AND TECHNICAL ASSUMPTIONS

Ii. 4



number of estimates were also made for 32° F and absolute humidity of 15
grains/lbs. for comparison purposes. Exhibit 19 illustrates the variation

in regional emissions associated with these two different temperature and
humidity assumptions. While emissions are higher at the lower temperature,
it should be pointed out that photochemical oxidant problems are typically
worst during periods of warm weather when atmospheric conditions favor

the formation and concentration of oxidants near the surface.

Exhibit 20 presents the estimated emissions and fuel consumption reduc-
tion impacts of a carpool/vanpool program for both the medium-sized and
large prototype regions, As expected, the absolute quantities are propor-
tionally higher for the large region, but the percentage impacts are virtually
identical for the two regions, without a consistent advantage to either across
the four impact indices. All subsequent impact comparisons among regional
scenario strategies and programs will be based on the large prototype region
as the standard.

Exhibits 21 through 23 compare the nine regional scenarios for the large
prototype region in terms of their HC, NO,, and CO emission impacts, re-
spectively. Regional HC and NO, emissions are primary inputs to the pro-
cess which produces photochemical oxidants in urban areas. Regional CO
emissions are of less significance since CO is primarily a localized air
quality concern,

Overall, the emissions impacts tend to reflect the percentage VMT im-
pacts, This is most true for NO, emissions. However, the speed sensitiv-
ity of the most recent EPA emission factors for HC and, even more so, CO
have resulted in percentage change emission impacts for some scenarios
which are significantly different from the corresponding VMT impacts. As
illustrated in Exhibits 21 and 23, some of the strategies involving reserved
lanes on freeways and arterials are estimated to yield increases in HC and
CO emissions, respectively, despite the achievement of overall VMT reduc-
tions for these same strategies.

Because of the sensitivity of HC and CO emissions to vehicle speed, the
shifts of VMT to slower average speed classes (estimated to result from

‘Exhibit 28 presents a tabular impact summary which includes the percentage
changes in total regional weekday VMT associated with each of the regional
scenarios.

Ol. 29


It is emphasized that the contribution which transportation strategies
such as the above can make to improving both regional and localized
air quality can be significantly enhanced by developing a total, integrated
regional and localized program for achieving air quality. Such a pro-
gram would incorporate strategies such as those listed above as well as
strategies which are beyond the scope of this report.

11.20


e€ “III

PERCENT
CHANGE IN
REGIONAL
WEEKDAY
HIGHWAY:
HYDROCARBON
EMISSIONS
sr)

EXHIBIT 21

ESTIMATED IMPACTS FOR NINE REGIONAL SCENARIOS IN A LARGE URBAN AREA:

2.0%

10% F

14% Aa
TONS*

1am b

0.8% |
o6% F
04%

02%

0%

REGIONAL HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS

109
105 TONS

rons

AS
TONS

“ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE REGIONAL CHANGE IN HC EMISSIONS
FOR PROTOTYPE URBAN REGION OF APPROXIMATELY 2,500,000
3,000,000 SMSA POPUL ATION AND AN AVERAGE BASE WEEKDAY HC

HIGHWAY EMISSIONS OF 628 TONS (AT 75°F).

Estimates assume uninterrupted traffic flow conditions,

DECREASE INCREASE



TABLE A.6:

ESTIMATING HIGHWAY EMISSIONS

GENERAL APPROACH

Estimatas of regional highway eminsions end line source emission
intensity were made by applying January, "S70 vehicle exbeust
‘eminion factors published by the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Transportation and Land Use Policy, Individual
mini fectors were computed by means of an EPA computer
rogram, bused o8 methodology ead (updated) parameters

eppearing
wile ‘Source Emission Factors, Interim Oocument, June, 1977

Except 23 specified below, average default values were used in calcu:
lating the emission factors,

VEHICLE TYPE CONVENTIONS:

‘Emission factors were separatety calculates
following standard EPA vehicle types:

LOV. — light duty vehicle
LOT) ~ light daty truck (under 6,500 tbs.)
LOT2 — light duty truck (6,500-8,500 ibe)
HOG — heavy duty gasoline vehicle

HOD — heavy duty diesel vehicle

iad to the

‘The tour besic vehicle types used for travel impect extimation pur-
poses im this repert were equivalenced to the sbove standard EPA
categories as follows:

fute = LOV
Carpool s LOV, essumed to cerry 500 Ibs. additional weigit
Bus = HOD

Truck totals are allocated among four EPA standard classes according
to the following assumed urban truck distribution:

we LOT, = Tracks x 6/14
LOT, = Trucks x 6/14
HOG = # Trucky/14
= HOD = 2 Truckyi¢

= Trucks

itt, HOT AND COLD START ASSUMPTIONS

For a.m. peak hour regional emissions calculations, the following distri-
bution of vehicie opertting conditions are assumed for all vehicie end
facility types:

20% — cold start
10% hot start
70% — stabuized

For a.m. pesk hour line source emission intensity calculations, the fol-
towing distributions of vehicte operating conditions were assumed for
the CO impect area (approximetaty 1 mile out fram the CBD):

Other inbound freeway vehicles © 15% 5% OK,
ther outbound freeway vehicles 20% 15% 65%

W,_ARTERIAL FLOW AQJUSTMENT FACTOR

Given the illustrative, prototype nature of the analysis, it was inappro-
priate to attarmpt derailed queve farmation and intersection analyses
to account for the impact of traffie controls and intersection conflicts
‘on arterial emission rates (over and above the impacts reflected
sverage speed). However, it wes nevertheless important ia calculating
arcarial emissions ta at leert gereraily take into account these stop-

‘and-go conditions which differentiate arterials from “slow freeways.”

A icroseaie umiysis of typical arava interseetin was conducted

intersections incrensed arterial emissions by

what they would have been at the same average speeds without the
intersection delays. This emission increment factor was applied to all
calculations for arterials and local streets to account for thesa inter-
section effects,

V__REGIONAL EMISSION ESTIMATES

Estimates of regional HC, NO, and CO emissions were made by multi-
plying the projected signed changes in weekday regional VMT (disaggre-
gatad by average spead, facility type, and vehicle type) by the corre
sponding emissions rates and summing over all disaggregation types,

Vi._LINE SOURCE EMISSION INTENSITY ESTIMATES

{in ardar to make estimates of
of corridor-oriented stratagiet,
froen int of CO weatos fr te teed ener

(0.g,, ugm_/macer-see.) is calculated for aach lane by multiply
volume by the apprapriste composite CD emission factor. This com-
posite factor corresponds to the vehicle type, made of operstion,
‘average speed, and temperature assumed.

(Cantinved)



ditions to provide more desirable impacts may also be suggested.

Exhibit 10 summarizes the major travel impacts estimated for the 10 lo-
calized scenarios. Vehicle volumes and average speeds for A.M. peak hour,
peak direction travel are given by vehicle type for both the base conditions
("before") and after the scenario strategy has been implemented ("after").
These values pertain to a segment of the primary highway facility in the pro-
totype corridor which has been selected as the focus of the illustrative CO
concentration impact area. This impact area is a one mile square which has
its inner edge approximately one mile from the CBD of the prototype region
for most of the scenarios.!

Exhibit 10 also presents information on the congestion impacts of each
scenario strategy in the form of "before" and 'after'' volume-to-capacity
(V/C) ratios for each prototype facility element in both the peak and off-
peak directions. Several major points should be made concerning the inter-
pretation of these impacts:

. The travel impacts reported are intended to be representative of
typical conditions and reasonable expectations for modal shifts,
but are nevertheless illustrative. The actual travel impacts
achieved in applying the scenario strategy or program to a spe-
cific corridor would depend on base travel conditions, highway
facility geometrics, details of implementation, and similar fac-
tors prevailing for the specific application.

. In some cases, the removal of a lane from normal service and
reservation for use by high occupancy vehicles (HOV) results in
over-capacity congestion (V/C ratio greater than 1.00) in the
remaining non-reserved lanes. Since stable flow conditions are
frequently lost and average speeds may not be reliably estimated
under such over-capacity conditions, speeds below the at-capac~
ity (level of service E) level are not reported in the table. How-
ever, these cases are noted and rough estimates of additional
stop-and-go delay are provided.

. In two of the scenarios (6 and 7), reservation of an off-peak di-
rection freeway lane for contraflow bus operation results in off-
peak direction traffic (which originally experienced good peak
hour flow conditions) facing capacity congestion levels.

‘The illustrative diagrams in Exhibit 8 indicate the CO impact area with a
dotted line.

IIL. 10


TABLE A.1

OVERVIEW OF TECHNICAL APPROACH FOR AIR QUALITY IMPACTS ANALYSIS

|, PROTOTYPE SCENARIO.
SELECTION AND
SPECIFICATION

20 SCENARIOS FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS DEFINED
FOR RECENT BASE YEAR IN TERMS OF:

+ Suntogy/Program Specification
+ Pratotype Region of Applicaton
*=Comder/Facity Description, If Applicable

It, TRAVEL IMPACTS

OBSERVED OF MODEL-ESTIMATED TRAVEL
BASE YEAR TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS OF CANDIDATE STRATEGIES FROM
PLANNING DATA FOR: LITERATURE SEARCH:
a “Protatype Regions “+ Transit Aldership
+ Selects Coridert 6 woe
‘Highway Facilities i
‘Vehicle Volume or VMT
T “overage Speed of Travel Time
| ESTIMATE HIGHWAY TRAVEL IMPACTS
FOR EACH SCENARIO
| FOR REGIONAL IMPACTS: FOR CORRIDOR IMPACTS:
| ‘+ VMT by Average Speed sad + Vehicle per Hour snd Average
| Reed Type Spued
*Vebica Type Disvibation “vevea Sar Condition
| “Trip Length Distribution or
| Ho/Cotd Start Estimates
IL EMISSIONS i]
IMPACTS:

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

ANO FLEET ASSUMPTICNS:
+ Ambient Temperature snd APPLY EPA “MOBILE SOURCE
Hemidity a SUISSION FACTORS”
+ Wind and Stability Conditions:
*Overadl Fleet Mix And
Incidence of A/C
Trlet Towing, Additional
Loads, ete,
ESTIMATE HIGHWAY TRAVEL EMISSION IMPACTS:
FOR EACH SCENARIO, AS APPLICABLE
CORARIDOR/HIGHWAY FACILITY: REGION:
CO (grams per secand-mite) +H (oe)
NO, (toms)
CO (toes)
=]
—

WV, LOCALIZED AIR
QUALITY IMPACTS

Y

APPLY EPA HIGHWAY MODEL FOR THE FOLLOWING
REPRESENTATIVE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS:
TYPICAL, GOOD DISPERSION
“TYPICAL, POOR DISPERSION
EXTREMELY, POOR DISPERSION

Y

ESTIMATES OF STATEGY-INDUCED CHANGES IN CO
CONCENTRATIONS FOR REPRESENTATIVE RECEPTOR
SITES SURROUNDING AFFECTED HIGHWAY FACILITIES

A.2


Selection of TSM Actions for Analysis

The analysis of the prototype localized and regional scenarios demon-
strates the need to clearly define the geographic scale of the air quality
problems facing an urban area, The selection of tactics for analysis should
be consistent with the scale of the area's air quality problems. Many tac-
tics are particularly applicable to alleviating localized air quality problems
while other tactics, such as carpool and vanpool programs, are appropriate
for addressing regional air quality problems.

For example, the results of the regional scenarios illustrate that the
application of the HOV freeway or arterial lanes on multiple radial highways
was substantially less effective in reducing regional air pollution emissions
than the carpool/vanpool programs, However, these same strategies were
considerably more effective in reducing CO concentrations adjacent to appli-
cable freeways and arterials,


+ Contraflow bus lanes on freeways;
« Metered freeway access ramps with bus by-pass lanes;
« Contraflow bus lanes on major one-way arterial pairs;

» Provision of high level express bus service with reduced
fares, operating in mixed traffic on major arterials or
freeways;

+ Provision of high level express bus service (possibly with
reduced fares), combined with a reserved lane for buses
and carpools on the appropriate freeway facility; and

« Provision of high level express bus service (possibly with
reduced fares), combined with a reserved median lane for
buses and bus preemption of traffic signals on an appropri-
ate arterial,

Freeway priority strategies can have significant localized (CO) air qual-
ity impacts. For freeway corridors with significant localized CO air quality
problems, strategies giving priority treatment to high occupancy vehicles
may achieve significant improvements, especially when applied as part of
a package of strategies favoring high occupancy vehicles in the corridor.

The arterial strategies which appear to have the highest potential for
reducing CO concentrations are reserved median bus lanes with priority
signalization and contraflow bus lanes on one-way pairs.

Mass transit improvements, such as fare reductions, comprehensive
marketing programs, security and facilities improvements and provision of
new or expanded service may contribute to resolving localized CO problems.
Expanded radial express bus service can have the most significant impact on
air quality, especially when introduced in areas where transit ridership is
low and when combined with strategies giving priority treatment to buses.
While fare reductions and service improvements tend to be costly, the im-
portance of such strategies lies in their inclusion in a comprehensive plan
to improve air quality, Although mass transit improvements by themselves
may not have significant impact on air quality, they are an essential element
of a comprehensive program intended to encourage the use of high occupancy
vehicles and discourage the use of low occupancy vehicles, Thus, it is im-
portant to improve the mass transit system to provide alternative means
for mobility as other programs, such as parking controls, are implemented
to reduce reliance on the private vehicle,

ili


EXHIBIT 9

REGIONAL SCENARIOS SELECTED FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO DESCRIPTION OF THE STRATEGY IMPLEMENTED
" ‘AMO THE AFFECTED FACILITIES OR CHANGES (AMODAU UsAne>®
a Te ‘TRAVEL MARKET®
" © Areawide Carpoct Matching Program for Employers (moderately Feversble Impects)
Mediom Size City; of 200+ (40% of Empleyon)
Favorable Impacts © Ghat Employou of Participating
© Areawide Vanpoat Program for Empleyers of 1,000+ Empleyers Form New Carpects
(20% of Empleyous)
‘© 3% of Empleyees of Participating
Emplayers Form Now Vanpeois
12 | Corpect/Vanpest Prorem, | » Aremwide Carpool Matching Progrems for Employers (Moderstaty Favorable lmpects)
Large City: Favorable 200+ (35% of Emplcyom)
© Apprax. 7% of Employes af Participating
© Areawide Vanpeol Program for Employers of 1,000¢ Employers Farm New Corpeots
(17% ot Employees)
‘© 3% at Empleyom of Participating Employers
Form New Venpoots
13 | Reserved Sau/Poot Lanes, © Expanded Reduced Fare Expres Sus Servica oa (Modest impact)
Ramp Metering, snd Bus Freeways
Sy-Pums Lines on A © 75% lncracse im Affected Express Bus VAT
© Reserved With-Flaw Lane for Buses and Carpecis
Modest Impacts (3+ Occupant) om Appraximately 40 miles of © 50% locrensa in Affected Carpool VMT
‘6 Lone Radial Freeway
© Associated Decreases in Auce VMT
© Ramp Mateciog on On-Remps end
16 Bas By-Pass Ramps

©. Expanded Fringe Parking Facilities

‘Same as Sesnsrie 13

(Maderately Favorable Impacts)

© 125% Increase in Affected Express Bus VMT
‘© 96% Increase in Affected Carpool VMT

¢ Amociated Decreases in Auto VT

18

© New Reduced Fare Express Bus Service on Reserved
Reversible Medion Lane of 72 Miles of Major Redial
Arcariets

© Signal Pre-Emption for Express Buses
© Expanded Fringe Perking Fociticien

(Modest Impect)

(© VIMT Increase for Express Bus Associated
‘With «30% Overall (Local and Express)
es Modal Set tr Attrtnd Condor

raved

© Associated Decresea in Auto VMT

6

Reserved Medisa Lane
for Expren Bines on

Impecs

‘Same as Seonarie 15

(Mederstaty Favorable Impocts)

© VMT Increase for Express Bus Associated
‘With 0 40% Overall (Local ond Expres)
Bes Modal Spit for Atfecend Coridor

© Associated Decransa in Auto VMT

(Continued)

“ALL SCENARIOS EXCEPT FOR #11 ARE FOR A “LARGE” CITY (1,000,000+ SMSA POPULATION RANGE).

SCENARIO #11 IS SET IN A MEDIUM SIZED CITY (500,000 - 1,000,000 SMSA POPULATION RANGE).
*SEE APPENDIX A FOR FURTHER DETAIL ON METHODOLOGY ANO TECHNICAL ASSUMPTIONS.

Im. 7


EXHIBIT 25

CAPITAL AND ANNUAL OPERATING AND MAINTENANCE COSTS

FOR REGIONAL SCENARIOS
PROTOTYPE SCENARIO Costs (in Thousands of 1976 Dollars)
D No. Tr ITEM CAPITAL ANNUAL OPERATING
mn me AND MAINTENANCE
11 | Carpool/Vanpool Program, 6
Medium Size City; Favorable | Carpool Program* _— s
Impacts
12 Carpool/Vanpool Program, *
Large City; Favorable Im- Carpool Program’ —_— 404
pacts
13. | Reserved Bus/Pool Lanes, Ramp Metering aan
Ramp Metering and Bus Reserved Lane 1380
By-Pass Lanes on All Ap- en ny tase games 9504
propriate Freeways; s 0/4860
Park and Ride Lots
Modest Impacts 74,586/19 446
14 Reserved Bus/Pool Lanes, Ramp Metering 3,402
Ramp Metering, and Bus Reserved Lane 1 300
By-Pass Lanes on All Ap- Bus By-Pass Ramps wee
propriate Freeways; Fa- Express Bus Service "
1 0/4860
vorable Impacts Park and Ride Lots 16,740/23,504
15 | Reserved Median Lane for Reserved Median Lanes 7,088
Express Buses on Appro- Express Bus Service 11,781
priate Radial Arterials; Park and Ride Lots 0/2,835
Modest Impacts 18,869/21,706
16 Reserved Median Lane for Reserved Median Lanes 7,088
Express Buses on Appro- Express Bus Service 11,781
priate Radial Arterials; Park and Ride Lots 0/2,835
Favorable impacts 18,869/21,704
17 | Carpool/Vanpoo! Program Carpool Program 300
and Freeway Reserved Lanes; Beene au Service agus
Modest Impacts Park and Ride Lots 0/4360 _
9,804/14,664
18 Carpool/Vanpool Program Carpool Program 300
and Freeway Reserved Lanes; Reserved Lanes 10,890
Favorable Impacts Exprass Bus Service 0/4,360 4113
Park and Ride Lots ——— 744
11,190/16,050 5,921
Carpool Program a
19 Carpool/Vanpool Program, Ramp Metorng 3,402 oe
Reserved Lanes, Ramp Reserved Lane 300 660
Metering, and Bus By-Pass Bus By-Pass Ramps 1,380 3597
Lanes; Modest Impacts Express Bus Service 9,504 Ta8
Park and Ride Lots 0/4,860 —_——
14.586/19.446_ 5,957
20 Carpool/Vanpool Program Carpool Program — 404
Reserved Lanes, Ramp Ramp Metering 3,402 252
Metering, and Bus By-Pass Reserved Lane 300 660
Lanes; Favorable Impacts. Bus By-Pass Ramps 1,380 —
Express Bus Service 13,662 5,142
Park and Ride Lots 0/4,860 744
18,744/23,604 7,202

IIL 38



bus service/reserved lane strategies in scenarios 18 and 20 are estimated to
result in larger reductions in HC emissions than Scenario 12 but for a signifi-
cantly larger annualized cost. Transit capital and operating costs comprise
a significant percentage of the total cost of scenarios 12 through 20,

As discussed for the localized scenarios on page IV.5, the cost-effec-
tiveness analysis is primarily intended to illustrate the potential air quality
improvements achieved per dollar of investment. However; a thorough
evaluation should account for the transportation, energy conservation, and

other potentially beneficial impacts of regional-type scenarios discussed in
this section.

The magnitudes of the impacts for each class of regional scenario, and
consequently the ranking between scenarios for a given urban area, could
vary from those determined in this report. Important factors which may
have a major impact in the relative ranking of the scenarios include: the
specific transportation measures packaged in the scenarios, the estimated

types and levels of travel impact, and the costs of implementing and oper-
ating the proposed scenarios.

GUIDELINES FOR AIR QUALITY ANALYSES

Interpretation of Findings

The report is intended to provide information to assist urban areas cov-
ered by EPA's Transportation Planning Guidelines:

. assessing the applicability and potential of the four classes of
transportation programs described above for improving localized
and regional air quality;

. estimating and evaluating the cost-effectiveness of such pro-
grams and their related travel, energy consumption, cost,
and economic impact; and

. identifying key factors (e.g., meteorological conditions, vehi-
cle type distributions and vehicle operating speeds) likely to
affect air quality and air pollution emissions.

The above issues are addressed at a sketch planning scale of analysis.


EPA 400/2-78-002a

D.C. 20460 March 1978

SEPA Air Quality Impacts
of Transit Improvements,
Preferential Lane,
and Carpool/Vanpool
Programs



TABLE A.9 (Continued)

Based on item C of Table A.4, the increase in carpools and the corresponding reduction in vehicular volumes on arterials
and freeways were achieved from the following sources:

Percent of*
Source of Carpools New Carpoolers
Arterial Carpools 10
Arterial Auto
(1, 2 occupant): 18
Freeway Auto
(1, 2 occupant) 2
100

* From Item C of Table A.4.

Vehicle Reductions by Occupancy Class
New Carpools t 2 3G) Tota
31 - - O vu
57 133" 36%" — 169**
28 s3ov* 142" — = g728*
314 872

** As noted in Item C of Table A.4, shifts from 1 and 2 occupant autos to carpools were allocated in proportion
to the base number of persons in each occupancy ciass shown in A. above.

D. Peak Hour Transit Ridership Shifts

Increase in peak hour transit ridership on freeways = (1.25)(1,170) = 1,463 riders. Total peak hour transit ridership
on the freeway = 2,633 riders (1,170 (i.e., basa) + 1,463 (i.., increase)).

Using an average load factor of 40 riders per bus, an estimated 66 express buses are assured to operate on the re-
served freeway lane during the peak hour under the “after” conditions. This is 40 more busas than in the “before”

condition.

Based on Item B of Table A.4, the increase in transit ridership and the corresponding reduction in vehicular vol-
umes on arterials and freeway were achieved from the following sources:

Source of Transit Percent of! Vehicle Reductions by Occupancy
Ridership New Transit Riders New Riders 1 2 sey Total
Induced * 146 - - - -
Local (Arterial) Bus 207 263 - = - -
Arterial Auto
(1, 2 occupant) 16% ait 118 32 8 158¢
Freeway Auto
(1, 2 occupant) art 843 sag® 147° - 696°



impacts, and costs of strategies in achieving air quality. Local metropolitan
areas will thereby have a capability to explore a broad range of strategies
for achieving air quality and to assemble the most promising sets of strat-
egies into comprehensive alternative programs. More detailed transporta-
tion and air quality analyses -- with appropriate consideration of specific
local circumstances -- will be required to adequately address the effective-
ness, impacts, and costs of the comprehensive alternative programs within
specific urban areas,

ANALYSIS APPROACH

The report includes a summary and assessment of observed and model-
estimated travel impacts associated with the application of reserved free-
way/arterial lane, transit, carpool and vanpool programs based on a com-
prehensive literature review.

Programs within the scope of this project which demonstrated poten-
tial for cost-effectively improving either localized or regional air quality
were selected for detailed analysis and evaluation based on the findings of
the literature review.

In order to quantitatively assess the air quality and related impacts of
interest, twenty prototype scenarios were defined to represent "real-world"
circumstances in which the alternative programs are typically implemented.
The use of prototype scenarios, rather than specific projects which have
been implemented provides a more consistent basis for comparing the cost-
effectiveness and the magnitudes and characteristics of the associated im-
pacts for the programs of interest. Scenarios were formulated to analyze
impacts on both localized (CO) and regional (oxidant) air quality.

FINDINGS

The major findings of the report are summarized below.

Literature Review

Localized Strategies

Based on the findings of the literature review, the strategies which ap-
pear to have the best potential for achieving improvements in localized CO
air quality include:

With-flow freeway lanes reserved for buses and carpools;


TABLE A.9 (Continued)

1 From ttem B of Table A.A,

* Assumed as 10% of 1,463 new transit riders.

H Percentages apply to non-induced (1,463 — 146 = 1,317) increase in transit ridership.
As noted in Item B of Table A.4, shifts from 1, 2 and 3+ occupant autos to transit were allocated
in proportion to the base number of persons in each occupancy class shown in A. above.

£. Peak Hour Freeway Traffic Volume Shifts

The impact of the above carpool and transit shifts on peak hour, peak direction freeway traffic volumes is
Presented below.

“Before” Vehicles* Vehicle Changes on Freeway from “After” Vehictes*
Vehicle Type per Hour Carpool Shifts Transit Shifts per Hour (unrounded)
Auto 6,290 672 696 4,922
Carpool 330 +314 - 644
Bus 26 - +40 66
Trucks 350 - - 350

* See Exhibit 10 for these estimates.

F, Peak Hour Corridor Arterial Traffic Valume Shifts

Peak hour traffic volume shifts on corridor arterials which are reported in Exhibit 10 were estimated using
‘the same process presented above for freeways.

G. Operating Speed Estimates for Freeway

As noted in Item B of Table A.2, average vehicle operating speeds for the reserved and non-reserved freeway fanes
were estimated based on computed volume to capacity (v/c) ratios for each scenario.

For scenario 5, the “before” and “after” peak hour vehicle volumes (from point E above), hourly capacities, V/C
ratios, and corresponding average peak hour operating speeds for the reserved and non-resarved lanes in the peak-
direction of travel are presented below:

Peak Hour, Peak Direction, Hourly Average*
Freeway Votume (Unrounded) Capacity (VPH) V/C Ratio Operating Speed (MPH)
“Before” Condition
« Non-Reserved Lanes 6,996 7,000 1.00 28
“After” Condition
Non-Reserved Lanes 5,272 5,250 1.00 30**
Reserved Lanes 710 1,750 0.41 43

» Tables 33 and 34 of the report Characteristics of Urban Transportation Systems (1974 edition) and the Highway
Capacity Manual were used to estimate operating speeds.

** Assumes that ramp metering will result in a small improvement in average peak hour vehicle operating speed
ie., from 28 to 30 mph): even though the V/C ratio in non-reserved lanes equals 1.0 in both the “before”
and “after” conditions,



EXHIBITS
AREA.WINE CARPOOL AND VANPOOL PROGRAMS

= a = Teeea Ee |e elel= [=
= = = =e Se

rag


TABLE A.2:

(CONTINUATION 1)

ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS.
AND PROCEDURES BASIS OR SOURCE COMMENTS
I, FOR SCENARIO 9 (5 LANE ARTERIAL)
‘A, VEMICLE TYPE DISTRIBUTION
For am. peek hour: Same as for 1.0, except: Changes are warranted:

Vehicle Type

Single occupent auto 70.8%
Two occupant euto 18.9%
3+ Carpool (ave. ocs. = 3.6) 4%
‘Local bus (ave, oe. = 55) 0.7%
Express bus (ave. occ. = 45) o%
Truck 5.0%

‘Assame no express bus service in
(arterial) corridor before program
implemented,

‘Assume relatively low initial
geal bus volume (15 in peak hour,
inbound).

© because this prototype contains no
freeway facility in corridar

© by scanario assumption af relatively
hhigh modal shifts “favorable” im-
pacts), which would be impossible
with high initial transit ridership

Ill, FOR SCENARIO 10 (PAIR OF ONE-WAY ARTERIALS)

A, VEHICLE TYPE DISTRI:

TION

For am. peak hour:

viele Typ
Single occupant auto 70.1%
Two occupant auto 18.7%
3+ Carpool (eve. oes, * 3.6) 4%
Local bus (ave. ace. 2 50) 1.3%
Express bus (ave, occ. = 45) 02%
Truck 5.0%

‘Some as for 1.0, except:

‘Assume limited number of express
user (5 in peak hour, inbound),

‘Assume 40 inbound peak hour local
bbusas (the tower end of the 40-60 bus
volume cited in NCHRP Report 155,
85 a warrant for the proposad type

of curb lane strategy).

On ¢ major 4 ane, one-way arterial, 2
smail number of “express” buses ware
considered reasonable,

Average local bus occupancy wes set st
the slightly lower value of 50 to main-
tain initial ridership at net tow high a
level (Consistent with the assumption
of maderstaly favorable impects) while
satistying the minimum bus volume
warrant of 49,



+ meteorological conditions (e.g., temperature, wind direction
and speed, stability class and mixing depth);

+ transportation facility, vehicle capacity and geometric charac-
teristics (e.g., elevated, at-grade);

- existing and projected vehicle operating speeds, directional
splits of travel, vehicle mixes (e.g., age and vehicle type),

and the modal splits on the affected transportation facilities
and in the region;

« relative amount of VMT and/or vehicles operating in cold
start, stabilized, and hot start operating conditions; and

. development characteristics (e.g., building heights) adjacent
to transportation facilities.

The above list includes data not typically compiled and used for either
short-range or long-range urban transportation planning. It is especially
important to recognize that a thorough analysis of localized transportation
strategies will require the use of corridor and link specific information
in estimating CO concentrations. MPO's and other agencies participating
in air quality planning will have to assess the need for revised analysis
and data collection programs to support their air quality planning process.

The development of a program to monitor the effectiveness of trans-
portation actions in improving air quality is required by the Planning
Process Guidelines. Such a program would be useful to ensure that im-
plemented short range and long-range transportation improvements
are achieving desired improvements in air quality.

The effect of increasingly stringent vehicle emission standards coupled
with the growth in compact car ownership will contribute to reducing total
tons of HC, NO, and CO emissions over time. These are important devel-
opments which states and MPO's must account for in estimating 1982 emis-
sions and air quality for updates to the State Implementation Plans required
by the Clean Air Act Amendments for 1977.

Although these trends have not been quantatively analyzed in this project,
their effects can be estimated using EPA's mobile source emission factors
which reflect legislative requirements for future vehicle emission rates, by
vehicle type.

v.11


I, INTRODUCTION

OBJECTIVE

This report evaluates the use and cost-effectiveness of alternative short-
range reserved lane, transit, carpool, and vanpool programs as techniques
for improving air quality in urban areas. The report has been prepared in
accordance with Section 108(f) of the Clean Air Act, as amended August 1977.
It is intended to assist elected officials, government administrators, trans-
portation planners, and transportation system operators in developing trans-
portation measures for the State Implementation Plan and integrating trans-
portation system management (TSM) and air quality planning programs as
required by the Federal Highway Administration, the Urban Mass Transpor-
tation Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, respectively. *

The specific types of short-range transportation programs examined in
this report include:

. priority treatment for high occupancy vehicles on freeways and
arterials;

- areawide carpool and vanpool programs; and
. transit fare reductions and service improvements.
The application of other transportation measures such as inspection and

maintenance programs for vehicles, parking controls, traffic operations,
and pricing are not covered in this project, but will be the subject of future

study.3

‘Federal Highway Administration and Urban Mass Transportation Administra-
tion, Transportation Improvement Program. Part 450; Federal Register,
Vol. 40, No. 181, September 17, 1975.

?Environmental Protection Agency. Transportation Planning Guidelines,
Draft Guidelines, November 28, 1977.

3Section 108(f) of the Clean Air Act, as amended August 1977 requires EPA
to publish information reports regarding processes, procedures, and meth-
ods to reduce or control each transportation related pollutant. Reports will
be prepared on a wide range of actions (e.g., traffic flow improvements,
on-street parking controls, road user charges, and road use restrictions).

Ll


EXHIBIT 14

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MAXIMUM 8-HOUR AND PEAK 1-HOUR
CO CONCENTRATIONS FOR TYPICAL, POOR DISPERSION CONDITIONS*

4 11,000 -—- — — — — — — — — —— _
S Hour ————
3 CO Reduction Distance from edge of roadway = 25°
i 10,000 |
a
i NAAQS for CO (8-hous)
=
z
= 9,000
2
2 l
< Distance from edge of roadway = 50’
=
uw
2 so0o-
z= 4,
o
2
o
=
S
-}
=
m7
3 7,000
= —
3 Scenario 5 “After” Casa Le— Scenario 5 “Before” Case
1 1
5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
PEAK 1-HOUR CO CONCENTRATION FROM VEHICULAR TRAFFIC ONLY (ug/m3)
(Read from Exhibits 13, 15, and 16)
* Assumptions:
1. Concentrations reflect typical, poor dispersion conditions,
2. Abackground CO concentration of 5,700 g/m? (5 ppm)
is assumed driving the peak 1-hour.
3. A0.7 ratio of the maximum &-hour to peak 1-hour CO con-
cantration is assumed.

>

A factor of 1.25 was used to convert CO concentrations (fram
vehicular volumes only) at 50 feet from the edge of the road-

way to CO concentrations at 25 feet from the edge of the roadway.
Estimated CO concentrations assume uninterrupted traffic

flow conditions.

Ill, 19


TABLE A.4

(CONTINUATION 4)

ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS

AND PROCEDURES BASIS OR SOURCE COMMENTS
ARTERIA AR
SCENARIO TITLE RIDERSHIP INCREASE
§.Reserved Arterial Medion Lene Express bus ridership achieved | Chosen to be grestar than 20% bus Mier bus moda sl (40%) chasm to
for Expres Buses; Favorable which yields overall bus modal | madel split achieved in similar reflect favorable impact sssum
Impacts split of 40% (local plus ox- project on 7th Avenue in Miami and substantial (15%) focal us merkat
press). (Exhibit 4, G), ‘bese which prototype corridor starts
with before addition of express servies,
10.Contraftow Curb Lane for 15% increase in local bus Judgmental determination, 15% value chosen as reesonsbly opti
Local Suses on Pair of One. ridership on arterials in peak mic gon move rf postin but
Way Artariats; Fevorable rection. travel time savings, relatively large

initial bus modal split, and fact that
‘most trips wil still probably be fester by
auto for pratatype case,

A.ll



@° AT

EXHIBIT 26

SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED IMPACTS FOR THE LOCALIZED PROTOTYPE SCENARIOS

IMPACT ON A.M. PEAK IMPACT ON A.M. PEAK HOUR CO
PROTOTYPE SCENARIO HOUR CORRIDOR CONCENTRATIONS IN pa AT REFERENCE PROGRAM COSTS IN
VEHICLE VOLUME* AECEPTOR, FROM AFFECTED FACILITY EMISSIONS** | 1976 DOLLARS (x1,000)
TYPICAL, GOOD TYPICAL, POOR (ONE-TIME
BASE PEAK DISPERSION DISPERSIONT MEM?
10 HOUR PERCENT WMPLEMENTA: |openatina!*?
No. BRIEF TITLE VOLUME CHANGE | BASE VALUE) CHANGE | BASEVALUE| CHANGE tion) | (Per YEAR)
1 | Expanded Express Bus Service in Mixed wo
Freeway Traflic; Favorable Impacts 19,667 147% 5,756 - 139 a20 -203 3,160/4,08' 1447
2 | Freeway Lane Reserved for Buses and
Carpools; Favorable Impacts 19,667 ~6.0% 5.156 — 884 s210 — 182 3720/6 350 139
Ramp Metering and Bus By-Pass Lanes; ~
Favorable impacts 6,156 ~ 388 a210 -837 6220/6844 4,203
4 Reserved Bus/Poo! Lane, Ramp Metes-
ing, and Bus By-Pass Lanes; Modest
Impacts 19,667 -397%1" $9,756 wae 8210 wae | 4s62/6402 1,751
5 Reserved Bus/Poul Lane, Ramp Mater.
ing, and Bus By-Pass Lanes; Favorable
Ampacts 6.90% 6,756 - 603 a2 - 832 6248/7 968 2266
6 | Contratiow Freeway Lane Reserved
for Bus 14,150 1.69% 4798 1226 6750 wn 962 ut
7 | Cootratiow Bus Lane, Expanded Ex
press Bus Service, and Park-and Ride
Lots; Favorable Impacts 14,150 3% 4798 +100 6769 +104 3,660/5,208
8 Contratiow Bus Lane, Expanded Ex-
press Bus Service, and Lots; Assum-
ing 70%/30% Directional Split;
‘avurable Impacts 13,800 4.07% 4066 -18 6748 2,660/5 288
a Reserved Arterial Median Lane for
Express Buses; Favorable Impacts 3760 | -15.47% 4964 -ne ~ 998 2594/4, 1130
w Contratiow Curb Lane fur Local
Buses on Pair of Ooe Way Artenals;
Favorable finpacts. (labound 3 78a 5
Arteril/Quthound Arteriall 5,000 ~4.40% 340 +368 +474 48 123

"Qn all highway facilities explicitly inckided in the analysis of the prototype cos (soe diagrams ia Exhibit 8 _);
Volume is for freeway and/or arterial segments approximately 1 mile out froin the CBD (adjacent to the CBD ia the case of Scenario 10).
**CO concentration 50 feet from downwind edye of primary comidor facility, based on vehicular emissions from affected facilities only;
uninterrupted watfic flow conditions are also assumed. Maximum & hour average CO concentrations may be approximated using the procedure in Exhibit 14,
1 See Exhibit 11_ fora tabular description of these metearological cunditiuns.
1 *This value includes the vohicles originally using the conidor freeway, but estimated as being unable to pass through during peak hour
because of flow breakdown caused by congestion.
4 could wot be reliably estimated. See Exhibit 10 and text for further explanation.

impacts far See

CO Concent

(2 Represents incremental opesating costs

UB The two capital cost entries represent the
facilities (e.g., shopping center) of wendy c



I. TRAVEL, AIR QUALITY, AND RELATED IMPACTS
OF SELECTED TRANSPORTATION PROGRAMS

This section presents and assesses the results of the 20 prototype sce-
nario analyses. These prototype scenarios were designed to provide rep-
resentative findings on the range of travel, air quality/emission, fuel con-
sumption, cost, and economic impacts of TSM programs which appear to
have potential for localized or regional air quality improvement.

PROTOTYPE SCENARIOS SELECTED FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS

Selection and Significance of the Scenarios

Based on the findings presented in Section II, a total of 20 prototype sce-
narios were selected for analysis and evaluation. These scenarios were de-
fined to encompass the most promising carpool/vanpool, reserved lane, and
transit improvement strategies and combination programs.

Ten of the scenarios deal with strategies which impact specific highway
corridors, thus affecting only a limited portion of total regional travel. The
analysis of these "localized" scenarios therefore focuses on their carbon
monoxide (CO) concentration impacts near the affected highway facilities.
The remaining ten scenarios have areawide travel impacts. The analysis of
these latter, ''regional' scenarios thus focuses on their regional pollutant
emission impacts.

The scenarios were designed with some systematic variation in assumed
travel impacts and area size to facilitate generalizing the project's findings.
However, the extent of this planned variation in assumed prototype conditions
was limited by the number of scenarios analyzed in total and the need for a
minimum degree of uniformity among scenarios (so that impact estimates
among different strategies would be comparable).

With this general background, the following specific points should be
made about the prototype scenarios:

. Although designed to be illustrative of typical implementation
conditions and the impacts of some variability in these condi-
tions, the scenarios should not be interpreted as yielding the
answer for a given strategy; nor do they span the range of typ-
ical variation in all major factors, As will be demonstrated


This has both air quality and obvious political feasibility impli-
cations. However, in scenario 8, where a more extreme direc-
tional split of 70 percent/30 percent is assumed (instead of 60
percent/40 percent), the off-peak direction congestion impacts
are reduced, illustrating the importance of prevailing travel
condition details in determining the air quality impacts.

In the absence of details on highway geometrics, topography, vegetation,
etc., itis difficult to quantitatively estimate the noise impacts for the local-
ized scenarios. However, the overall peak hour vehicle volume reductions
reported in Exhibit 10 are significant (as high as a 26 percent reduction for
scenario 9), suggesting the potential for noticeable highway noise reductions.
Given equal volumes and volume changes, the noise impacts from arterials
are likely to be more significant than those from freeways since freeways
frequently are separated from population concentrations by greater dis-
tances, have better acoustical insulation, and have less vehicular acceler-
ation and deceleration. However, the higher operating speeds on freeways
do tend to counterbalance these factors to some extent.

Localized CO Concentration Impacts

Based on the above travel impacts, line source emission strengths on all
corridor facilities in the CO concentration impact area were calculated for
each localized scenario, An expanded version of the EPA HIWAY model was
then used to estimate "before" and "after'’ CO concentrations associated
with highway traffic on the affected prototype facilities for 121 receptor grid
points covering the one mile square impact area.

For each localized scenario, CO concentration impact estimates were
made for each of three prototype meteorological conditions: (a) typical good
dispersion (this general type of condition is most likely to prevail); (b) typ-
ical poor dispersion (less likely to prevail); and (c) extremely poor disper-
sion (least likely to occur). Exhibit 11 defines these three prototype mete-
orological conditions and illustrates the variation in CO concentrations over
the three different assumptions using results for scenario 2. Total concen-
trations and concentration impacts are both several times higher under ex-
tremely poor dispersion conditions than under either of the two other pro-
totype conditions. Thus, prevailing meteorological conditions are a very
critical factor in determining the localized CO impact actually realized.
However, because of the relative infrequency of conditions similar to those
specified for extremely poor dispersion, comparisons among scenarios in
subsequent exhibits will be made with only the first two meteorological con-

ditions.

TIL 13


The greatest reduction in CO concentration is achieved by scenario 5,
the most ambitious combination freeway program, with a reduction in excess
of 10 percent of the initial highway-related concentration. The smallest re-
duction is achieved by scenario 1 (approximately 2.5 percent relative to ini-
tial concentration), which is the least ambitious freeway program, calling
only for the expansion of express bus service in mixed traffic and provision
of park-and-ride facilities. The impacts are significant, but not large ona
percentage basis, especially when one adds background CO to the base
highway concentrations displayed.

As illustrated by the significantly different outcome for scenario 4
(which was simply scenario 5 with more modest modal shift assumptions),
one should be aware that the magnitude and even sign of these illustrative
prototype impact estimates can easily vary from those achieved in a specific
actual application, depending on the factors already discussed.

As noted above, the CO concentrations presented in Exhibits 13, 15 and
16 do not include background CO concentrations. Using a 5,700 pg/m°(5 ppm)
background CO concentration in conjunction with the CO concentrations in
these exhibits indicate that none of the scenarios violates the 1-hour NAAQS
for CO of 40,000 yg/m' (35 ppm). However, Exhibit 14 illustrates that se-
lected scenarios which do not violate the 1-hour CO standard can approach
or exceed the 8-hour CO NAAQS of 10,000 yg/m® (9 ppm).

For example, a peak 1-hour CO concentration of approximately 8,000 pg/m?
(for vehicle emissions only) is shown for the before condition for scenario
5 in Exhibit 13. This corresponds to an approximately 11,000 pg/m?
max.mum 8-hour CO concentration (including background) at a distance
of 25 feet from the edge of the roadway, which exceeds the 8-hour NAAQS
for CO. After implementing the transportation measures in scenario 5, the
maximum 8-hour CO concentration is estimated at 10, 200 ug/m at 25 feet
from the edge of the roadway. The latter concentration just exceeds the
8-hour CO standard and represents an important reduction in CO concen-
trations.

This example and Exhibit 14 illustrate the following important points:
. In those scenarios in which peak 1-hour CO concentrations

from vehicular traffic alone approach or exceed 7,000 pg/m
(at a distance of approximately 50 feet from the edge of the

GCA Corporation. Identification of Localized Violation of Carbon Monoxide
Standards - Volume I: Guidelines (Draft Final Report). Prepared for EPA-
Region I office, November 1975, pg. II-13.

UI. 18


PTI

EXHIBIT 11
ILLUSTRATING THE IMPACT OF PREVAILING METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ON A.M. PEAK HOUR CO CONCENTRATIONS*

CONCENTRATION 5
Y REDUCTION CAUSED BY
ASSOCIATED Y/f\ REDUCTION
FACILITY EMIS. ZA) *rocnan
SIONS, CONCENTRATION ASSOCIATED
EF WITH FACILITY EMISSIONS,
IMPLEMENTATIONS AFTER IMPLEMENTATION
40,000/-
WL
36,000
2,000 ASSUMED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
cove A 8 c
AM.PEAK HOUR —28,000/-
CO CONCENTRATION® TYPICAL GOOD | TYPICALPOOR | EXTREMELY POOR|
ATRECEPTOR 59 94 ogg|- LABEL DISPERSION DISPERSION DISPERSION
FEET FROMDOWN- ~ 20° OFF OF
WIND EDGE OF FREE- PERPENDICULAR | PERPENDICULAR | panatteL To
WAY IN 20,000|- WIND TO PRIMARY TO PRIMARY PRIMARY
DIRECTION t CORRIDOR CORRIDOR CORRIDOR
sap! meter? seal FACILITY FACILITY FACILITY
WIND SPEED 4 msec. 4 mises. 2 misec.
12,000}-
TEMPERATURE 18°F 32°F 32°F
8,000; IZILIL, STABILITY o E F
= CLASS (Neutral) (Stable) (Very Stable)
4.000/- MXING 700 meters 400 meters 200 meters
. A B c , | perry

‘*The illustrative CO concentrations displayed in this exhibit
are for scenario 2. The concentrations sre based on
vehicular emissions from affected freeway and arterial
onty ond assume uninterrupted traffic flew coaditions.


Exhibit 27 shows that, using scenario 1 as a "minimum action plan" base,
scenario 2 produces a larger incremental reduction in CO concentrations than
does scenario 3 for essentially the same incremental cost. The cost-effective-
ness plot also shows that compared to scenario 2, scenario 5 is significantly
more costly but yields only a marginal reduction in CO concentrations.

The cost-effectiveness analysis is primarily intended to illustrate the
potential air quality improvements achieved per dollar of investment. Such
a consideration is clearly important because of limited government financial
resources available to improve air quality. However, it is important to
recognize other potentially desirable impacts of these strategies in an evalu-
ation process. Strategies incorporating transit improvements can maintain
or enhance mobility when disincentives are applied to discourage travel by
low-occupancy vehicles. Many of the strategies can yield significant travel
time savings to travelers receiving priority treatment and can promote size-
able reductions in peak period vehicular traffic,

The rankings of strategies illustrated by Exhibits 26 and 27 reflect the
transportation measures and characteristics assumed for each scenario in
this analysis. This ranking, as well as the impacts for a given strategy,
could be considerably different within a given urban area because of "local
conditions, '' Major factors likely to influence the relative ordering between
strategies and within a single class of strategies include:

. the characteristics (e.g., miles of reserved HOV lane, access/
egress operations, type of transit service, enforcement, size
and location of park and ride lots) of the transportation measures
incorporated in the scenarios;

. the estimated level of transit ridership and ride-sharing increases
which can vary substantially for similar projects as noted in Section
Il

. the capital and operating costs of the strategies which are. highly
dependent on the physical and operating characteristics of an ur-
ban area's transportation system and local labor costs; and

« the prevailing meteorological conditions, traffic enforcement pro-
cedures, and levels of service (e.g., operating speeds and v/c
ratios) on highways which are candidates for the types of scenarios
analyzed.

In addition to the potentially large variation in impacts between dif-

ferent packages of transportation measures, considerably different mag-
nitudes of impacts may result from implementing the same package of

v.5


TABLE A.2:

BASE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR LOCALIZED (CORRIDOR) PROTOTYPES

ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS:
AND PROCEDURES BASIS OR SOURCE COMMENTS:
L__ GENERAL
vew PACITIES.
Freewey Lose: 1,750 velicies per hour Tables 33 and 34, of At level of service “E”
Artarial Lene, Ne Parking: 800 vehicies per hour ac ion (curs

8_AVERAGE SPEEDS

‘Besed om computed volume t0 capacity ratios,

Assume ai segments in CO impact area cam he cate

gerized as “Fringe” location,

G_BASE VEHICLE VOLUMES

Except whee otherwise specified, for am. peak hour:

© Inbound freeweys at capacity (V/C = 1.00)

© When primary corridor facility, inbound arterial

near capacity (V/C = 0.94)

'* When competing with freeway, inbound arterial

below capacity (V/C = 0.75)

© Directional split of traffic on ail facilities is 80%

inbound and 40% outbound. {70%/30% on
freeway for Scansria 8 aniy, by assumption.)

0. VEHICLE TYPE OISTRIGUTION

Except for scenarios 9 and 10, a.m. pask hear

vehicle type percentage distribution:
Vehicte Type Freeway Arturial
Single ocenpent auto TOK 70.1%
Two occupent auto 18.9% 18.7%
3+ Carpool (ave, cce.=3.6) 4.7% = 4.7%

Local bus (ave. oce.=55) = 0%
Express bus (ave, oce.= 45) 0.4%
Truck 5.0%

£. AVERAGE TRIP TRAVEL TIME

Computed based on 10 miles travel om primary
corridor facility, 2s follows: .5 mils in CBO, 2.5

miles in frings area, 5.5 miles in outty!
district, and 1.5 miles in residential ares.

business

‘Tables 33 and 34, CUTS Manual and
1965 Highway Coosa Mena

Prototype assumptions

NCHRP Report 143, p. 69

Peat, Marwick, Mitcheit & Co.,

mga Study, Teche Meno ~
‘ebruary, 1976

Final Report, 1-35W Urben Corridor
‘omtonrmroon Proje, 12a

Prototype assumptions

Prototype assumptions. Four arees are
Highway Capacity Manual categories
‘sed to extimate speed.

Capacity conditions chosen to reflect
rualistic pank heue conditions on radial
highway fecilitien, Overcapacity bese

conditions rejected a3 net appropriate
for types of programs te be tested on
‘these pratotypes.

For relative distribution of 1 occupant,
2 occupant, and 3+ cecupant autes.

For relative distribution of carpools by
umber of occupants.

For the relative percent bus,

For the relative percemt truck, distribu-
tion of carridor base as between
artarial (local), and sverage

mate speeds over 4 portions of 10 mile
trip. Travel time estimates used only to
support assumptions on magnitude of
model shifts which « program can be
‘expected to cause,

(Continued)


EXHIBIT 9

REGIONAL SCENARIOS SELECTED FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS (Cont'd)

‘Lanes, Favorable Impacts

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO DESCRIPTION OF THE STRATEGY IMPLEMENTED
AND THE AFFECTED FACILITIES OR ee ool usage*®
Ha Te ‘TRAVEL MARKET® Hl
17 | Carpoot/Venpect Program — | © Carpeol/Vanpoot Program as Described in (Modest Impacts)
and Freeway Reserved Seonario 12
Lanes; Modest Impacts SarpotVanpcl Component
© Expanded Reduced Fare Expres But Service on ° VMT Impacts in Scanario 12
Freeveys
Reserved Lane Components
© Reserved With-Flow Lone for Buses and Corpoots © 85% Increase in A Express Bus VMT
(3+ Occupant) om Approximately 40 Miles of
8 Lane Radial Freeway 65% Increase in Affected Carpool VMT
© Expanded Fringe Parking Facilities © Decrease in Auto VMT Associated With
Above Two Shifts
18 | Corpooi/Veapool Program ‘Same as Scenario 17 (Moderatsly Fevorabie Impacts)
and Freeway Reserved Lanes;
Favorable impaess Carpeot/Venpoal Companent
SEE cans Carpcl/VanpealImpoct
Seonaria 12
Reserved Lane Lerts,
° Increase xpress Bus VMT|
100% Increese in Affected Carpool VMT
© Decrease in Auto VMT Associated With
Above Twa Shifts
19 | —Carpeot/Veapooi Progam, |» Carpool/Vanpaot Program ss Described in Scanario 12 (Modest Impacts)
Reserved Lanes, Ramp
Metering, and Bus By-Pass | © Reserved Lane Freeway Program as Described in 1o01/Vangool Component
Canes; Modest Impacts Scanario 13 SEC oF VIMY TmpsCe ot Scanario 12
Freeway Components
Same as
20 | Carpeot/Vanpeol Program, ‘Same as Scenario 19 (Moderately Favorable Impacts)
Reserved Lanes, Ramp
‘Metaring, and Bus By-Pass a

ALL SCENARIOS EXCEPT FOR +11 ARE FOR A “LARGE” CITY (1,000,000+ SMSA POPULATION RANGE).
SCENARIO #11 1S SET IN A MEDIUM SIZED CITY (500,009 - 1,000,000 SMSA POPULATION RANGE).

‘**SEE APPENDIX A FOR FURTHER DETAIL ON METHODOLOGY AND TECHNICAL ASSUMPTIONS.

I. 8


Ta

APPENDIX B

UNIT COST ASSUMPTIONS
ITEM COST (in 1976 Dollars) SOURCE
1, Bus Capital Cost $66,000 DeLeuw, Cather & Co. and Rock Creek Associates.
(47-51 Passengers) ristics of Urban Te ortation ms: A

2. Bus Operating and Maintenance
Cost

3. Park and Ride Lot
A. Capital

B. Operating and Maintenance

Cost

4, Bus Ramps

5. Contra-Flow Arterial Lane

6. Reserved Freeway
Bus/Carpool Lane

A. With-Flow

B. Contra-Flow

$1.49 per bus mile for population service areas of
750,000 - 2,500,000

$1,080 land and construction cost/stall (in 1976 dollars);
this is based on a land cost of $2 per square foot

$165 annual operating cost/stall (in 1976 dollars);
includes property tax allowance.

$759,244 (in 1972 dollars) for 9 bus ramps; 114,815.
per ramp (in 1976 dollars)

$9,200/1.5 miles for sizing, striping, etc.

$100,000 capital cost for Santa Monica Freeway
$22,000 per mile annual operating cost (Assumption)

$50,000 per mile used based on several projects
$22,000 per mile used based on several projects

Handbook for Transportation Planners. Prepared for
UMTA. July 1977. Page 111-18, Table 3-14.

DeLeuw, Cather & Co. and Rock Creek Associates,
Chai ics of Urban Tran: io

Handbook for Transportation Planners. Prepared for
UMTA. July 1977. Page UI-7, Table 3-5.

DeLeuw, Cather & Co. and Rock Creek Associates.
Characteristics of Urban Transportation A

Handbook for Transportation Planners. Prepared for
UMTA. July 1977. Page IV-22, Table 4-15.

Butler-Rivgrose-Wolsfield, Inc. Final Report for the 1-35W

Urban Corridor Demonstration Project. Prepared for UMTA.
August 1975.

NCHAP Report 143, Bus Use of Highway
‘State of Art. 1973. Page 251, Table C-8.

Urban Mass Transportation Administration. Service and
Methods Demonstration Program Annual Report. April
1977. Page 237.

DeLeuw, Cather & Co. and Rock Creek Associates.
Characteristics of Urban Transportation ms: A

Handbook for Transportation Planners. July 1977.
Page IH-17, Table 3-13,



EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE

This report has been prepared in accordance with Section 108(f) of the
Clean Air Act, as amended, August 1977. It is intended to assist urban
areas in developing transportation measures for the State Implementation
Plan and integrating their transportation system management and air quali-
ty planning programs as required by the Federal Highway Administration,
the Urban Mass Transportation Administration and the Environmental Pro-
tection Agency.

The specific types of short-range transportation programs examined
this report include:

- priority treatment for high occupancy vehicles on freeways
and arterials;

. areawide carpool and vanpool programs; and
. transit fare reductions and service improvements,

It is important to note that other transportation measures such as in-
spection and maintenance programs for vehicles, parking controls, traffic
operations, and pricing are not covered in this project, but will be the sub-
ject of future EPA information reports.

The report is intended to provide information to help urban areas covered
by EPA's Transportation Planning Guidelines to:

» assess the applicability and potential of the three classes of
TSM programs described above for improving localized and
regional air quality;

. estimate and evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such pro-
grams and their related travel, energy consumption, cost,
and economic impacts; and

. identify key factors (e.g., meteorological conditions, vehi-
cle type distributions and vehicle operating speeds) likely
to affect air quality and air pollution emissions.

This information report addresses the above issues at a sketch planning
scale of analysis. It can thus be used to identify the relative effectiveness,


TABLE A.8:
ESTIMATING REGIONAL FUEL CONSUMPTION IMPACTS

\._ CALCULATION PROCEDURE

The change in weekday regional fuel consumption in gallons is esti-
mated by multiplying the signed projected weekday VMT changes
for a scenario (disaggregated by facility type, vehicle type, and level
of service/average speed class) by the corresponding disaggregate fuel
consumption rate and summing these products over all of the dis-
aggregation classes.

The change in annual regional fuel consumption is estimated as 250

(number of work days per year) times the weskday value, since all
of the scenario strategies are essentially work day strategies.

Il. DISAGGREGATE FUEL CONSUMPTION RATES

The fuel consumption rates used in the analysis were estimated from
fuel consumption and vehicle type distribution data appearing in

Characteristics of Urban Transportation Systems (July, 1977 version)
as follows:

Table 3-6: bus fuel consumption rates

Table 4-5: auto and truck fuel consumption rates and vehicle
type distribution on freeways

Table 4-6: auto and truck fuel consumption rates and vehicle
type distribution on arterial streets

The average speeds by level of service class appearing in Table A.3, 1A
were used so that the fuel consumption rates could be expressed and
applied directly in terms of level of service class.

Local streets were assumed to be arterial streets for fuel consumption
calculation purposes.

Fuel consumption rates for speeds beyond the range of speeds for
which rates wore available were assumed to be the rates for the closest
reported speed. Rates for speeds between reported speeds were asti-
mated through linear interpolation.

A 2% roadway grade was assumed for buses in estimating fuel con-
sumption rates.

Vanpools were assumed to be 2-ton light duty trucks for the purpose
of fuel consumption estimation.

A.2i



Te “III

PERCENT
REDUCTION
IN REGIONAL
WEEKDAY
HIGHWAY
VALUES

EXHIBIT 20
COMPARISON OF ESTIMATED REGIONAL IMPACTS OF A CARPOOL/VANPOOL PROGRAM IMPLEMENTED

IN TWO PROTOTYPE REGIONS : MEDIUM SIZE (500,000 - 1,000,000 POPULATION RANGE) AND
LARGE (1,000,000 + POPULATION RANGE)

2.0%
18%L
1.6%)
14% a3 28 ang 634 26
48 TONS* 08 TONS* TONS* TONS* MILLION 116
TONS* TONS* GALLoNst =—_ MILLION
GALLONSt
1.2%L
1.0% 1
asx}
ox M M M M
E L E L E L E L
D A f) A D A D A
0.2%} t R 1 R ' R t R
u 6 u & u & u G
* M E M E M E M E
HC EMISSIONS NO, EMISSIONS CO EMISSIONS FUEL CONSUMPTION

*Estimated absolute weekday regional emissions reductions in tons.
Estimates assume uninterrupted traffic flow conditions.

tEstimated absolute annual regional fuel consumption reduction in gallons.
[Above impact estimates are for Scenario 11 (Medium) and Scenario 12 (Large)j.


LT TI

AM. PEAK
HOUR CO
CONCENTRATION®
AT RECEPTOR
50 FEET FROM
DOWNWIND EDGE
OF FREEWAY

w

Hef mater?

‘2000,
7,500)
7,000,
6500,
6,000
5,500)
5.000
4500
4,000
3.500)
3,000

2,500)

a

=]

Hl

EXHIBIT 13
LOCALIZED CO CONCENTRATION IMPACTS* : COMPARISON OF SCENARIOS INVOLVING 8 LANE FREEWAYT

Hu

“WMPROVED CO LEVELS”

CONCENTRATION
ASSOCIATED WITH
FACILITY
EMISSIONS,

BEFORE
IMPLEMENTATION

CONCENTRATION
ASSOCIATED WITH
FACILITY
EMISSIONS,

AETEB
IMPLEMENTATION

Tl

Level

-

REQUCTION CAUSED
@Y PROGRAM

CONCENTRATION
ASSOCIATED

WITH FACILITY EMISSIONS,
AFTER IMPLEMENTATION

co Levers”

INCREASE CAUSED
BY PROGRAM

CONCENTRATION
ASSOCIATED

WITH FACILITY EMISSIONS,
BEFORE IMPLEMENTATION

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ©
‘A: Typical, Good Dispersion

B Typical, Poor Dispersion
@SEE EXHIBIT 11 FOR DETAILS

| | &bt,/ Ae
OU hed BE Fa

*CO concentrations are based on vehicular emissions from affected
freeway end/or arterial facilities only and assume uninterrupted traffic
flow conditions. Other sources of CO emissions can be substantial, but
would not be affected by the programs being analyzed.

tFor reasons discussed in the text, CO concentration estimates for
Scenario 4 could not be reliably estimated and therefore do

not appear.



TABLE AS

(CONTI

INUATION 4)

ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
ANDO PROCEDURES

BASIS OR SOURCE

COMMENTS

“Affected VMTTM" for the freeway corridor regional scenarios is
a subset of total regional VMT. It represents that regional
freeway VMT estimated to be directly affected by the releva
strategies plus the VMT estimated to be on artarials sarving the
‘same radial corridors,

For the large prototype region,
MT was estimated at 1,073,100.

‘The associated arterial VMT was estimated at 735,200.

‘These VMT totals were distributed across vehicie types and
leva of service classas exactly as was dane for total regional
bese VMT, except that VMT in the A and F level of service
classas was precluded as being inconsistent with conditions
approprista for implementing reserved lane strategies.

Fallowing the calculation of non-cireutatory VMT reduc-
tions and allocation to vehicle type and initial level af ser-
vies classes, shifts among level of service classas ware made
to simulate congestion effects.

£. CIRCULATORY VMT INCREASES

Associated with each shift to high occupancy vehicles induced
by a freeway strategy is assumed to be an incraasa in circulatory
MT ~ travel associated with modal access or passenger pick-
‘ups and drop offs. The following table presents the assumed
rates used to calculate circulatory VMT increases associated
with the stratagy-induced modal shifts:

(Continued)

the “affected” weekday freeway | Analytical sssumptions.

Anslytical assumption.

Analytical assumption.

Analytical essumptions

INCREASE IN
CORRIOOR MODAL SHIFT CIRCULATORY YM
OW ‘ON OW
FROM 10 1SMPH| 25 MPH. |15 MPH.
(source) LOCAL |ARTERIAL|ARTERIAL
TO%af | O3%of | O.3% ot
AUTO CARPOOL Sources | Source | Source

MT Shift] VMT Shitt | VAAT Shite

25% of | 7.5% of
auto EXPRESS BUS} Source | Source -
MT Shift] VMT Shift

‘The total ragionsl weekdsy freeway VMT
‘of 12,304,600 wes reduced as follows:

‘Onty 30% is peak period.
Only 60% af this in peak direction.

.

‘Only about % af this VMT is assumad
to be associated with radial freeways
whose guometrics and bese congestions
are appropriste for reserved lane
strategies,

This hears the same relation to the ahove
affected freeway VMT as the ratio af corri-
dor atarial to corridor freeway

volume assumed in the 8 lene freeway
localized prototypes.

After the VMT shifts associated the sca-
‘nario strategy were made, the new V/C
ratio for each tentative LOS cfess is cafeu-
lated. If the new value is no longer in

the range for the clas, all of the VMT in
that tentative LOS class is shifted to the
LOS class appropriate for that V/C ratio,

For shitts to carpools: Based on: (a)
‘assumed additional par person travel for
peal access and passenger pick-up and
drop-off (.25 mile per person}; (b) as-
sumed average carpool trip length (16
miles ~ assumed carpool trip length fa

mph arceriats (same assumption 2s that

7.15% of | 3.75% of used far cerpool/vanpooi programs).
LOCAL BUS | EXPRESS BUS | Source | Source -
VMT Shift] VMT Shift
25 mile | 75 mile
“NEW TRIP” | EXPRESS BUS | Per Par -
Peron | Person
(Continued)



EXHIBIT 4

ARYERIAL PRIORITY TREATMENT FOR
HIGH OCCUPANCY VEHICLES

aoa =e) SS ee
om lara fe, ieee forse. - -
comes] somninit |B |e
aa fs 2 r my eee
- |
Tie es



. In a number of cases, the data or information presented in
various rows of a column may vary in format and/or content.
Unfortunately, this is unavoidable because of the diversity
of information reported in the available sources and the lack
of uniform documentation in the literature.

. Blanks in the table identify data which were either not pro-
vided by available sources or which were considered to be
too ambiguous or unreliable to be usefully reported. Through
these blanks and the "level of documentation" ratings dis-
cussed in the footnote to the tables, the summary tables
graphically highlight the data deficiencies.

. Ina number of cases, information for a strategy supported
by data from several sources will be attributed explicitly to
a single source. This alerts the reader to data which are
based on only one experience or model estimate, and which
may not be representative of all the experiences cited for
the strategy.

Freeway Priority Treatment for High Occupancy Vehicles

Documentation of Past Experience

Relative to the other major categories of strategy, experiences with pri-
ority treatment of high occupancy vehicles on freeways were fairly well
documented (see Exhibit 3), The considerable interest and investment in
these strategies and programs prompted substantial demonstration moni-
toring and evaluation efforts in many cases. This was particularly true of
the projects involving the expenditure of large sums in the construction of
new priority facilities, such as the Shirley Highway high occupancy vehicle
lanes. However, even for the relatively well documented freeway priority
strategies, the extent, reliability, and transferability of the available infor-
mation are not entirely satisfactory. The primary reasons for this are that

‘Although such programs are long-range, capital intensive projects techni-

cally outside the scope of this report, they were included in the literature
review and summary tables because cf their similarity to within-scope re-
served lane approaches and because of the wealth of potentially transferable
data available. However, in evaluating these data, one must be careful to
account for the significant differences between reservation of existing lanes
and the construction of separate new priority facilities.

II. 2


TABLE A.7:

ESTIMATING LOCALIZED CO CONCENTRATION IMPACTS

1, EPA HIWAY MODEL ESTIMATES

The CO line source emission intensities discussed in Table A.6 are
input to a modified version of the EPA HIWAY model to provide

tes of a.m. peak hour CO concentrations associated with the
ns from the affected highway facilities. Unlike the standard
version of HIWAY, which calculates CO concentrations at 5 specified
receptors, the modified version calculates concentrations for an

11x 11, 121 receptor grid, set to cover a mile square area.

The prototype corridor facilities were oriented within the grid so that
the primary corridor facility runs parallel to the grid point rows and
so that the maximum concentration receptor is located 50 feet (along
the perpendicular) downwind from the edge of the primary facility.
Level topography is assumed in the model.

For each localized scenario, HIWAY model estimates of grid point

CO concentrations were made for each of the three meteorological
conditions defined in Exhibit 11.

Ul. AVERAGE EIGHT HOUR CO CONCENTRATIONS

Although CO concentration impact estimates were made only for the
a.m. peak hour, attainment of the national standard for maximum
average eight hour CO concentrations is an important consideration
in some areas.

Exhibit 14 can be used to estimate the maximum 8-hour CO
concentration (including background CQ) using the estimated
peak 1-hour CO concentrations (from vehicular traffic only)

in Exhibits 13 through 15. A background CO concentration

of 5,714 ug/m3 (5 ppm) and a 0.7 ratio of peak 8-hour to peak
1-hour CO concentrations were used to develop Exhibit 14.
The source of these factors is:

GCA Corporation. Identification and Evaluation
of Localized Violations of Carbon Monoxide
Standards - Volume {: Guidelines (Draft Final
Report). Prepared for EPA - Region | Office.
November 1975, pgs. 1-12 and II-13,

A.20



TRANSPORTATION PROGRAMS RECOMMENDED FOR
DETAILED SCENARIO ANALYSIS

The strategies considered in this report have the potential for achieving
improvements in regional air quality--especially when combinations of
strategies which include strong incentives and disincentives (e.g., auto
restricted zones, pricing) not within the scope of this report are included in
the total transportation control plan. On the basis of the literature review
and analysis of demonstration projects, the strategies which appear to
have the greatest potential for achieving improvements in localized CO air
quality in a cost-effective manner include:

. With-flow freeway lanes reserved for buses and carpools;
. Contraflow bus lanes on freeways;

. Metered freeway access ramps with bus by-pass lanes;

. Contraflow bus lanes on major one-way arterial pairs;

. Provision of high level express bus service with reduced
fares, operating in mixed traffic on major arterials or
freeways;

. Provision of high level express bus service (possibly with
reduced fares), combined with a reserved lane for buses
and carpools on the appropriate freeway facility; and

. Provision of high level express bus service (possibly with
reduced fares), combined with a reserved median lane for
buses and bus preemption of traffic signals on an appropri-
ate arterial.

For regional air quality impacts, it is suggested that emphasis be
placed on the analysis of integrated areawide ride-sharing programs
directed at large employers and including carpool matching, vanpool
formation assistance, and promotional components. It would also be
advisable to analyze the regional impacts of an areawide program to
apply one or more of the above listed "localized" strategies to all
appropriate facilities in the region.

II.19


TECHNICAL REPORT DATA

(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)

T. REPORT NO. 2.
EPA - 400/2-78-002 a

3, RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE

Programs

Air Quality Impacts of Transit Improvements, Preferential Lane and Carpool/Vanpool

iS. REPORT DATE
March 1978

6. PEREORMING ORGANIZATION CODE

7, AUTHOR(S)

John F, DiRenzo and Richard B. Rubin

ig. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.

Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co.”
1025 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20036

9, PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADORESS

10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
2AA635

TT. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.

68-01-3912

12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Office of Transportation and Land Use Policy**

13, TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final Report

714. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
401 M Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20460
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Engineering Science
"In Association 7903 Westpark Drive

McLean, Virginia 22101

** In cooperation with:
U.S.Department of Transportation
Washington, D.C.

76, ABSTRACT

analyzed.

This report has been prepared in accordance with Section 108(f) of the Clean Air Act, as
amended, August 1977. It is intended to assist urban areas in developing State implementation
Plans and integrating their transportation system management and air quality planning programs
as required by FHWA, UMTA, and EPA.

The report analyzes the air quality, travel, energy consumption, economic, and cost im-
pacts of three types of transportation programs: priority treatment for high occupancy vehicles
on freeways and arterials; areawide carpool and vanpool programs; and transit fare reductions
and service improvements,

Important factors (e.g., meteorological conditions, traffic volumes and speeds and changes

in modal choice) likely to influence air quality and emissions for the above programs are also

17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS

a. DESCRIPTORS

b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS |c.

COSATI Field/Group

Air Pollution Abatement
Carpooling

Automobile Traffic Reduction
Transportation Planning

Air quality
Travel Impacts

Reserved Lane Strategies
Vanpoaling/Carpooling

WS. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT.

Unlimited Distribution

Unclassified

19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)

21. NO. OF PAGES:

Unclassified

20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)

22, PRICE

EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)



remaining off-peak lanes) comes close to matching the decrease in concen-
tration adjacent to the peak direction arterial (caused by the projected shift
from autos to local bus), The end result is to increase congestion adjacent
to the off-peak arterial to a level higher than that originally around the peak
direction facility and to reduce the congestion adjacent to the peak direction
facility to a level below that originally around the off-peak arterial. How-
ever, as illustrated in Exhibit 15, this particular result could have been
substantially different if a more extreme directional split of traffic on the
two arterials had been assumed,

Capital and Operating Costs

Exhibit 17 presents the estimated capital and annual operating costs for
the localized scenarios, Appendix B presents the unit costs used in the de-
velopment of the capital and annual costs. The costs presented in Exhibit 17
are order of magnitude estimates based on costs published in the literature.

The largest individual cost item for all of the scenarios is for improve-
ments to express bus service. Generally, the geographic coverage and the
frequenCy of express bus service were assumed to increase significantly in
order to complement the reserved HOV lanes and attract large numbers of
auto travelers, The annual cost of bus service shown in Exhibit 17 repre-
sents the incremental cost of providing bus service above that assumed in
the base case (i.e., "before case).

The costs of implementing ramp metering and park-and-ride facilities
are also significant. With regard to the cost of park-and-ride lots, two con-
ditions are assumed, If use can be made of existing parking facilities at
shopping centers or other locations, the capital cost of such facilities would
be negligible. However, such arrangements may not be feasible in many
locations, and the full capital cost of constructing the park-and-ride facili-
ties is also presented (the two capital cost values are separated by a slash
in Exhibit 17). For both of these conditions, the cost of operating and main-
taining the park-and-ride lots is assumed to be a public cost.

Based on analyses of express bus operations in Minneapolis (i.e., I-35W
projects) and Seattle (i.e., Blue Streak project), annual operating revenues
may only offset approximately 50 percent to 66 percent of the annual operating
and maintenance costs of express bus service shown in Exhibit 17. Conse-
quently, sizeable annual operating subsidies may be required to operate ex-
press bus services such as those assumed in the localized scenarios, If
fare reductions are implemented, the subsidy requirements are likely to be
even more significant.

IIL 23


TABLE A.9 (Continued)

tn the absence of hetter available data, the value of CFACyp is assumed to be equal to that of CFAC op:

Large Region
CFACcpCFACyp: “0.22 mile

The calculation of this change is shown below:
A VMT 5 = 2(1,152,766) {(.22)(.0255) + (.22)(.005)]
AVMT, = +15,447

D. Total Weekday Regional VMT Change

Total Change in VMT = AVMTyc +QVMTp
= —673,446 + 15,447
= —657,999

657,999
The percent reduction in VMIT = (a 904.599 ) 100 = 1.5%

E. VMT Distribution by Facility Type

Tables A.3 and A.5 (items C and D) describe how the change in weekday regional VMT was allocated by level of
., speed), road type, and vehicle type.

A, 27



The arterial scenarios analyzed (scenarios 9 and 10) also can promote
percentage reductions in peak hour vehicular volumes ranging between 4
percent and 15 percent. As is true for the freeway scenarios, the attain-
ment of such reductions is highly dependent upon the specific setting in
which such strategies may be implemented. However, the percentage re-
ductions in vehicular volumes for arterials are based on smaller base vol-

umes and are not fully comparable to the corridor volumes in the freeway
scenarios.

Generally the relative reductions in peak hour CO concentrations (under
typical, good dispersion conditions) shown in Exhibit 26 are several percent-
age points higher than the corresponding reductions in peak hour corridor
vehicle volumes, but are generally several percentage points lower than the
corresponding reductions in peak direction freeway vehicle volumes. In sce-
narios 4, 6, and 7, CO concentrations are estimated to increase relative to
the base conditions. Although the scenarios are illustrative in nature, the
estimated increase in CO concentrations clearly indicates that careful analy-
sis of alternative tactics on a case-by-case basis is necessary.

Both the capital and annual operating and maintenance costs of the local-
ized scenarios are sizeable. As discussed in Section III, the costs of pur-
chasing and operating new buses for express bus service represent a sub-
stantial part of the total cost of the scenarios.

The potential cost-effectiveness (expressed in terms of ug/m*® reduction
of CO concentration per $1,000 of annualized cost) of the localized scenarios
in reducing CO concentrations is illustrated in Exhibit 27. The annualized
costs in this exhibit represent the sum of annual operating and maintenance
costs and an annualized capital cost. Transit and non-transit capital costs
were annualized using an eight percent interest rate and economic lives
of 12 and 20 years, respectively. Exhibit 27 illustrates that the cost-ef-
fectiveness of the freeway strategies in reducing CO concentrations is
highly variable. Scenarios 6 and 7 which involve the application of contra-
flow reserved lanes for buses along with complementary transportation ac-
tions are clearly not cost-effective in terms of their air quality impacts
based on the scenarios assumed in the project. Scenario 8 (which is iden-
tical to scenario 7 except that a 70%/30% rather than 60%/40% split of
traffic volumes in the peak/off-peak directions of travel is assumed) is
estimated to result in a reduction rather than an increase in CO concen-
trations. This suggests that scenarios 6 and 7 could promote reductions
in CO concentrations under more suitable traffic conditions such as those
assumed in scenario 8.

IV.3


+ since there are frequently good substitute routes for affected
arterials (which tends to be less true for freeways), travel
diversions may limit arterial strategy effectiveness.

Strategies which provide reserved median lanes for express buses over
substantial uninterrupted distances on major arterials appear to have poten-
tial for reducing transit travel times and diverting trips to transit, which,
in turn, would have an impact on air quality. This is particularly true if
preferential signal treatment and park-and-ride facilities are also provided.
Such strategies are relatively costly to implement and may involve traffic
safety problems, at least in the short run (as illustrated by the demonstration
project experience with a median bus lane on 7th Avenue in Miami).

Although the available data do not permit a conclusive assessment, strat-
egies employing contraflow bus lanes on major arterials (especially one-way
couplets) may induce increases in transit ridership at relatively low cost.
Care should be taken, however, that vehicle volumes, transit potential, and
peak traffic directionality conditions are favorable for the reservation of a
contraflow lane. Safety is and should be a major consideration in implemen-
ting such a facility. The available information suggests that with-flow curb
bus lane strategies have minimal impacts in practice and that reserved lanes
for carpools on arterials are impractical,

Although not included in this study, there are a number of arterial- and
CBD-oriented strategies which substantially augment the tools considered
in this study for improving downtown air quality. Auto free zones, pedes-
trian and transit malls, and various parking fee and parking restraint pro-
grams are among. the types of strategies which might be combined with the
strategies considered in this study to improve downtown air quality.

Areawide Carpool and Vanpool Programs

Documentation of Past Experience

Moderately good documentation is available on areawide carpool and van-
pool strategies from both demonstration and model estimate sources (see
Exhibit 5). However, in interpreting the reported results, several points
should be considered:

+ results are frequently available only for program participants,

making it difficult to obtain a percentage impact value reflective
of total regional travel;

II.11


TABLE A4

stop-ond-go delay in minutes.

Qn arterists, when the V/C ratio excseds 1.1, assume all
traffic in excess af 1.1 times ideal capacity diverts to

(CONTINUATION 2)
ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
‘AND PROCEDURES SASIS OR SOURCE COMMENTS

§, SQUACE OF LOCAL BUS RIDERSHIP INCREASES ON.
RESERVED CONTRAFLOW ARTERIAL CURB LANES
Any existing express bus ridership om facility remaies stable, | Assumption. ‘Ths curb-lone offers na benefits to either

express buses or their current users,

Since there is ne expansion of bus servica associated with the | Seme assumption used in 1.8 of this,
ratevant stratagy/program, none of the local bus ri ‘table for freeway prototypes.
incraase is essumed to be previously unmade tries,
‘All 1ocal bus ridership inereases come fram erterial users, ‘Assumption, Occupancy dirtribution sume es that
iscrivutad across 1, 2, and 3+ oecupamt catagories in assumed in |.0. above,
proportion te the base number of parsons assaciated with
tech,

£, CONGESTION DELAYS AND ROUTE DIVERSIONS
On freeways, when the V/C ratio excseds 1.1, breakdown of | Travel impact assumption. Assumption consiscent with frequency
flow is presumed. Only 10% of the traffic in excess of cape of extreme over-capacity congestion on
ity divert to paratel arterials. The remaining 90% over ome freeveays litte diversion ta
capacity is actamed to still us the freeway, bat be unable arceriai),
‘tm passthrough during the peak hour.
Whee the V/C ratio exceeds 1.00 on freeways, continuous Estimata of stop-and-go delay is besad
flew can ne longer be presumed. No single lower average ‘on 2 formule adopted fram 1 queuing
speed can be reliably assigned, Thus, the everege speed for model delay formula, See P. 65 of:
VIC = 1,00 is reported, together with a rough estimate of Guidelines for Travel Gamend

ige
1978).

Travel impact assumption.

Diversions from severely congested
arterials are much mare profitable and

atarnata artarial routes (adding an average of one-half {ikely than diversions from freeweys.
‘mile to the total one-way trip length).
ll, TRAVEL SHIFTS FOR INDIVIDUAL SCENARIOS
A, FREEWAY SCENARIOS
INCREASE IN FREEWA'
SCENARIOTITLE BUS. ‘ARPO
1. Expanded Express Bus Service Bus increase: roughly equal to in- Daily Blue Streak patronage inervesed
in Mixed Freeway Traffic: runt (a ridership reported for fram 7,530 to 11, 3.8%
Favorable Impacts Searte lve Streak experiance (sea | decrexse in overall ame
{.B of table for reference). period.
2. Freeway Lane Reserved for 100% 100% 100% chovan insted af 182% for Senca
Buses and Carpeots; Monica experience because of the ex-
Favorable Impacts tremely low initial fraction transit in

Carpet incresss: In Exhibit 3, 8,
' ‘increase is reported,

that case,

100% chasan instaad of 180% reporced;
‘aquin, because of the very low initis
fraction of carpeols in thet experience,
‘oth increeses are stil faity large, but
consistent with the assumed initial
‘modal split for the prototype corridar,

(Continued)


Section

II

Ill

IV

Appendix

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION

Objective
Background
Analysis Approach

PERFORMANCE AND POTENTIAL OF RESERVED
LANE, CARPOOLING/VANPOOLING, AND TRANSIT
SERVICE PROGRAMS

Literature Review Findings--TSM Strategy Impacts
and Potential

Transportation Programs Recommended for Detailed

Scenario Analysis

TRAVEL, AIR QUALITY, AND RELATED IMPACTS
OF SELECTED TRANSPORTATION PROGRAMS

Prototype Scenarios Selected for Detailed Analysis
Localized Scenario Impact Estimates
Regional Scenario Impact Estimates

SUMMARY AND ASSESSMENT OF SCENARIOS
Localized Scenarios

Regional Scenarios
Guidelines for Air Quality Analyses

Analytical Assumptions and Methodology for Non-Cost
Impact Estimates

Unit Cost Assumptions

Il. 1

Il.1
IIl.9
1.26

IV.1
IV.1

IV.6
IV.9


PAI

CHANGE IN PEAK HOUR CO CONCENTRATIONS (agin? *

EXHIBIT 27

COMPARISON OF LOCALIZED SCENARIOS
ON COST AND CO CONCENTRATION IMPACTS

aoa © S(ARTERIAL)

-700 |

-600} °

. 5 (WITH-FLOW FREEWAY)
© 10 (ARTERIAL) 2 (WITH-FLOW FREEWAY)
-s00
400 .
3 (WITH-FLOW FREEWAY)
-300
200}
e
soot Co REDUCTION 1 (EXPRESS BUS * 8 (CONTRA-FLOW FREEWAY)
| EXPANSION)
pb —-——— — —$
+100 | 7 (CONTRA-FLOW FREEWAY)
CO INCREASE
+200 [ .
6 (CONTRA-FLOW FREEWAY)
+300°}
v 4. 1 Lb 4 1 7 4
1,000 2,000 3,000

ANNUALIZED COST (IN THOUSANDS OF 1976 DOLLARS)

3,500


The report illustrates the magnitude and types of air quality, emission,
travel, fuel consumption, and cost impacts that could result from the imple-
mentation of selected transportation actions in settings similar to those
described for the 10 localized and 10 regional scenarios. The reader should
note that the impact estimates developed in the project are scenario-specific
and great care must be taken in attempting to directly apply the results of
this analysis to specific real-world circumstances.

For example, the increase in CO concentrations in several contra-flow
reserved freeway lane scenarios reflects the travel and meteorological con-
ditions assumed in those scenarios. The results do not indicate that contra-
flow lanes, per se, have undesirable air quality effects, but rather illustrate
the importance of carefully analyzing the potential air quality effects of imple-
menting a contra-flow lane on freeways carrying heavy traffic volumes in the
"off-peak" direction.

The impacts presented in this report also reflect assumed "modest" and
"favorable" travel impacts based on the findings of the literature review in
Section II, The travel impact estimates are considered to be reasonable,
particularly in light of the wide range in travel impacts which have been
observed in demonstration projects for given classes of transportation
actions. However, substantially different travel impacts could occur in a
specific application, depending upon the characteristics of the project under
consideration.

The application of tactics such as pricing incentives/disincentives, auto
restricted zones, area licensing, and parking, pricing and supply controls
in conjunction with the reserved lane, carpool, vanpool, and related sce-
nario tactics has not been examined in the projects. Such tactics offer con-
siderable promise for achieving more significant reductions in VMT than
those estimated in this project.

Factors Affecting Air Quality and Emissions

Important factors affecting transportation-related* air quality and emis-
sion impacts include:

tt is important to point out that contributions to air pollution levels from
non-transportation sources can be quite substantial and vary considerably
in importance from area to area. In order to accurately interpret the sig-
nificance of projected transportation-related air quality impacts, local
planners must also consider the non-transportation sources of air pollu-
tion in their areas.

Iv.10


corresponding reductions in peak direction freeway vehicle volumes. In
Scenarios 6 and 7, CO concentrations are estimated to increase relative
to the base conditions, The increase in CO concentrations in several con-
traflow reserved freeway lane scenarios reflects the travel and meteoro-
logical conditions assumed in those scenarios. The results do not indicate
that contraflow lanes, per se, have undesirable air quality effects , but
rather illustrate the importance of carefully analyzing the potential air
quality effects of implementing a contraflow lane on freeways carrying
heavy traffic volumes in the "off-peak" direction.

Both the capital and annual operating and maintenance costs of the local-
ized scenarios are sizeable, As discussed in Section III, the costs of pur-
chasing and operating new buses for express bus service represent a sub-
stantial part of the total cost of the scenarios,

Regional Scenarios

Exhibit 9 in Section III of this report and describes the 10 scenarios
selected for analysis of regional HC, NO, and CO emission impacts.
The first two regional scenarios (11 and 12) deal with areawide carpool/
vanpool programs focused on major employers in a prototype medium-
-sized region (500, 000 - 1 million population) and a large region (1 mil-
lion + population), respectively. Scenarios 13 and 14 deal with the
application of a combination freeway corridor strategy (e.g., reserved
lanes. express bus, park and ride lots) for several corridors throughout
the region. Scenarios 15 and 16 do the same for a combination arterial
strategy. The last four strategies involved the combination of both area-
wide carpool/vanpool and freeway corridor strategy components,

The VMT, emission, fuel consumption, and cost impacts of the 10 re-
gional scenarios are summarized in Exhibit B. Reductions in total region-
al VMT in the range of 1,0 to 1,9 percent are attributable to Scenarios
11, 12, and 17 through 20 which involve carpool and vanpool programs
focusing on large employers. These reductions correspond to reductions
of 3 to 6.5 percent in weekday work trip VMT. This represents a sub-
stantial shift of low occupancy auto trips to transit, carpools, and vanpools
during peak travel periods, which will reduce congestion and conserve en-
ergy as shown in Exihibit B, These same scenarios are also estimated to
yield the largest reductions in regional HC, NO, and CO emissions,

Scenarios 13 through 17, which involve the implementation of reserved
lanes on multiple radial freeways or arterials in a region, generally re-
sulted in total regional and work trip VMT reductions of less than 0.5 per-
cent and 1,5 percent, respectively, The small reductions in VMT are in

vu


TABLE A.9 (Continued)

where:

AVMT ye = change in non-circulatory regional weekday VMT associated with program
NEMP = regional employment
CPTL = average work trip length among those forming carpools

VPTL = average work trip length among those forming vanpools

cpocc = average carpool vehicle occupancy

vPocc = average vanpool vehicle occupancy

Bocce = average overall commuter vehicle occupancy

CPPR = carpool participation rate; estimated number of new carpool members per
regional employee as a result of program

VPPR = analogous to CPPR, for vanpools

The calculation of this change is shown below:

16 16 (25 _ 25
AVMT ye = 2(1,152,766) ( -#) (.0255) + G-#) (o0s)] = 673,446

. Circulatory VMT Change

The regional weekday change in circulatory (access, passenger pick-up and drop-off) VMT associated with
carpool/vanpool programs was estimated using the following formula (see item D of Table A.5):

AVMT, = 2 NEMP [CFACpp * CPPR + CFACyp * VPPR]
where:
NEMP, CPPR, AND VPPR are as in section A above.
AVMT_ = change in circulatory regional weekday VMT associated with program
CFACep = isa circulatory factor representing the additional access, pick-up, and/or drop-off
VMT per occupant associated with the formation of a new carpool
CFACyp = analogous to CFACgp, for new vanpools.

The value of CFACep was estimated on the basis of survey data on the number of additional blocks driven
by carpools to pick-up and drop-off members, average carpool occupancy, and the following assumptions:

1 block = 1/10 mile; and
survey responsas citing a pick-up distance of 0 blacks should be ignored as pertaining to
“household” carpools, unlikely to be affected by pool matching programs,



8° AI

EXHIBIT 29

COMPARISON OF REGIONAL SCENARIOS ON COST AND REGIONAL EMISSIONS IMPACTS

t (CARPOOL/VAWPOOL, LARGE AREA)

(CARPOOL/VANPOOL AND
MULTIPLE CORRIDOR FREEWAY)
a

(CARPOOL/VANPOOL AND
MULTIPLE CORRIDOR FREEWAY)

"
‘@  (CARPOOL/VAWPOOL MULTIPLE
‘CORRIDOR FREEWAY)
EMISSION REDUCTION ”
" ACARPOOL/VANPOOL AND 9 14(MULTIPLE CORRIDOR
fe ‘MULTIPLE CORRIDOR FREEWAY) FREEWAY)
(CARPOOL/VANPaGL, TO OMULTIPLE CORRIDOR
‘MEDIUM AREA) 912° ARTERIALS)
| QMULTIPLE CORRIDOR FREEWAY)
r 916 MULTIPLE CORAIDOR
EMISSION INCREASE ARTERIALS}
n n n 4 —t 1 4 rn n 4
1000 3000 4000 sone 009: 7000 000 9000 10,000

AMNAULIZED COST ( IN THOUSANDS OF 1976 DOLLARS)


TABLE A.9
ILLUSTRATIVE CALCULATION OF TRAVEL SHIFTS

This saction illustrates how the procedures and assumptions cited in Table A.1 — A.5 were used to estimate travel impacts for
the localized and regional scenarios, Scenarios 5 and 12 are cited as representative localized and regional scenarios, respectively.

1. Localized Scenario Travel Shifts (Scenario 5)
A. “Before” Peak Hour Travel Conditions

Exhibit 10 presents the distribution of “before” condition vehicles by type. This distribution was further stratified as
shown below, using assumptions shown in item O of Table A.2.

Freeway: Vehicle Type Vehicles per Hour® Persons per Hour**
Single Occupant Auto 4,967 4,367
Two Occupant Auto 1323 f 6280 2,648
Three(+) Occupant Auto (Carpools) 330 1,192
Express Bus 26 1,170
Local Bus - -
Trucks 350 -

Corridor Arterials:**
Single Occupant Auto 3,363 3,363
Two Occupant Auto 897 1,794
Three(+) Occupant Auto (Carpools) 224 806
Express Bus - -
Local Bus 78 4,290
Trucks 238 -

* From Exhibit 10.
** From project working papers.

B. Travel Impact Assumptions

Assumed percentage increases in freeway bus ridership and carpools of 125 percent, and 95 percent, respectively, for
scenario 5 are taken from Table A.4.

C. Peak-Hour Carpool Shifts

“New” Carpools on Freeway = (.95)(330) = 314 carpoots in peak hour. This represents 1,130 persons in carpools using
an average carpool occupancy of 3.6.

A, 22



TABLE AA:

ESTIMATING TRAVEL SHIFTS FOR LOCALIZED PROTOTYPE SCENARIOS

ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
AND PROCEDURES

‘BASIS OR SOURCE

COMMENTS:

GENERAL

‘A. BUS SERVICE EXPANSION

If the provetype streteqy/aroqram explicit ineludes an
uxpansion af exprest bus services, the best number of exerest
‘buses during the a.m. peak hour are assumed to double or in-
crease until a “comfortable” everage oceupency af 40 is
achieved at the final equilibriem ridership level, whichever is
‘the larger inerosta in barnes,

Mf the pratutype stretegy/program does nat itself call for
‘on initial expansion of service, then eny increases in ridership
‘are assumed to be absorbed partly by an increase in average
‘express bus occupancy up to 50 and party by on increase in
‘buses te satisty the final equilibrium ridership at the higher
Occupancy level,

8. SOURCE OF FREEWAY BUS RIDERSHIP INCREASES

Relevant freewey express bus service is assumed to com-
sist af routes with some (but net extensive) local collector
‘sacvica in addition to the dominant freewsy line-haul
partion.

If the strateqy/program expli includes an expansion
of bus servies, 10% of any ridership increese is exsumned to
bbe previously unmade trips (induced travel).

If the program does not explicitly include an expansion
of bes service, none of any ridership incrasses is assumed
to come fram previausly uemade trips.

Of the
assumed ta

ridership inereese, the sources are
‘from other modes 23 follows:

Source ot Increase Percent of Person Trip

Local (arterial) bus 20%
Arterial auto” 16%
Freeway aute*t 4%

Definition of essumed prototype bus
sarvica expansion strategy.

Velues from similar past experiences:
© 1.95 in Miami: 14% (Service and
Demonstration Pra

© Blue Streak service in Seattie: 18%
(Blue Stresk Bas Rapid Transit
fon = Final

Raport)

‘Travel impact assumption

‘Values from similer past experiences
for parcant from bus:

1-95, Miamis <18%
1-25W, Minneapolis: 41% (Final,

Report for the 1-35W Urban
Corridor Oemonstration Project)

« Kalanignosle Highway, Honolule:
i ("Expres Bus Use in Hone

Case Study,” Transporte.
toe Research Record S08)
For the percent from arteriel and free-

way aut, values from the (-5W ex-
perience were used.

Lower value of 10% assumed because:

© this analysis is for a.m, peak hour
and nat both peak periads during
which 1 higher percent of induced
travel would be likaly

citud cesults are from surveys witich
‘would yield some small percent of
new riders even if conducted an an
unchanged route

For percent from arterial bus, 3 value
at the lower end af the range (20%)
was chase since the higher value for
4-350 (61%) was far a project in
which new express bus service wes
pravided that had extensive collector
functions, not assumed in the proto-
type programs.

‘The actual percentages were normalized
‘ta sum to the 80% remaining after the
‘assumed 20% local bus share was
removed,

(Continued)


$2 “TIT

EXHIBIT 17 (Continued)

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO COSTS (IN THOUSANDS OF 1976 DOLLARS)
‘ANNUAL OPERATING
1D NO. TITLE ITEM CAPITAL —janD MAINTENANCE!
5 Reserved Bus/Pool Ramp Metering 1,134 84
Lane, Ramp Metering and Reserved Lane 100 220
Bus By-Pass Lanes; Favorable Bus By-Pass Ramps 460 1 40
Impacts Express Bus Service ain “148
Park and Ride Lots 9 94n/ Bas Jone
6,248/7,868 2,266
6 Contra-Flow Freeway Lane Contra-Flow Lane 500 220
Reserved for Buses; Express Bus Service 462 3218
Favorable Impacts 962 541
7 Contraflow Bus Land Contra-Flow Lane 500 220
Expanded Express Service, Express Bus Service 3,168 1,3500
and Park and Ride Lots; Park and Ride Lot 0/1,620 248
Favorable Impacts 3,668/5,288 1,818
8 Contra-Flow Bus Lane Contra-Flow Lane 500 220
Expanded Service, and Lots Express Bus Service 3,168 1,350@
Assuming 70%/30% Directional Split; Park and Ride Lot 0/1,620 248
Favorable Impacts 3,663/5,288 1,818
9 Resarved Arterial Reserved Median Lane 1,350 29
Median Lane for Express Bus Service 2,244 1,029@
Express Buses ; Park and Ride Lot 0540 _ 82
Favorable Impacts 3,594/4,134 1,130
10 Contraflow Curb Contra-Flow Curb Lane 6 -
Lane for Local Bus Service 462 123
Buses on Pair of 468 123
‘One-Way Arterials;
Favorable Impacts



1@ “TH

AM. PEAK

OUR CO
CONCENTRATION
AT RECEPTOR

SO FEET FROM
DOWNWIND EDGE
OF FREEWAY

ry)
Hol meter’

EXHIBIT 16

LOCALIZED CO CONCENTRATION IMPACTS* : COMPARISON OF SCENARIOS INVOLVING CONTRAFLOW LANE

2,008,
7,500
7,000
6500
6,000
5,500|
5,000
4,500)
4.000
3,500
3,000)
2,500
2,000
1,500)

1,000

ON 6 LANE FREEWAY

FE Note: Scenacio 8 not

cor jo with
‘Scenarios 6 and 7 because
the change in assumed
directional split of traffic oho
resulted in lower total base
vehicle volumes.
However, the
and relative size of the
concentration impacts can
tue profitably compared.

“IMPROVED CO LEVELS”

T] } REDUCTION CAUSED

CONCENTRATION
ASSOCIATED WITH

CONCENTRATION
FACILITY ASSOCIATED
EMssions, WITH FACILITY EMISSIONS,
PEO anion AFTER IMPLEMENTATION

“WORSENED CO LEVELS”

as

CONCENTRATION ay PROGRAM

ASSOCIATED WITH

FACILITY CONCENTRATION
EMISSIONS, ASSOCIATED

‘AETER WITH FACILITY EMISSIONS,
IMPLEMENTATION BEFORE IMPLEMENTATION

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ©
A: Typical, Good Dispersion

8: Typleal, Poor Dispersion
@SEE EXHIBIT 11 FOR DETAILS

Seng

*CO concentrations are based on vehicular emissions from affected
freeway and/or arterial facilities only and assume wninterrupted traffic
flow conditions. Other sources of CO emissions can be substantial, but
would not be affected by the programs being analyzed.


Literature Review

A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify and summa-
rize the travel, air quality, cost and related impacts of the freeway and ar-
terial priority treatment programs, areawide carpool and vanpool programs,
and transit fare reduction and service improvements programs. The litera-
ture review included relevant demonstration and operational projects and
analytical/model-based evaluations of the programs of interest. The findings
of the review were used (1) to identify those transportation programs having
the potential to improve localized and/or regional air quality; and (2) to pro-
vide the basic inputs for estimating the travel, air quality/emission, cost and
related impacts of the 20 transportation programs selected for analysis and
evaluation in this project.

The findings of the literature review are presented in Section II. An an-
notated bibliography documenting references examined in the project was pre-
pared for distribution as part of the project+

"Promising" Transportation Programs

Transportation programs within the scope of this project which demonst-
rated potential for cost-effectively improving either localized or regional air
quality were selected for detailed analysis and evaluation based on the findings
of the literature assessment.

In order to quantitatively assess the air quality and related impacts of in-
terest, 20 scenarios were developed to evaluate the "promising" transportation
measures. A prototype scenario includes the definition of the following:

+ the program (individual action or combination of actions)
to be analyzed;

+ the physical and operating characteristics of the program
(e-g-, number of lanes, hours of operation);

« the geographic area in which the program is to be implemented
(e.g., radial corridor, areawide); and

. "existing" travel and meteorological characteristics for the
geographic area of interest.

Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co., Transit Improvement, Preferential Lane
and Carpool Programs: An Annotated Bibliography of Demonstration and
Analytical Experience (Prepared for EPA, Office of Transportation and Land
Use Policy), November 1977.

L7


EXHIBIT 10

MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR LOCALIZED SCENARIOS (Cont'd)

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO ‘AM. PEAK HOUR TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN CO IMPACT AREA

‘o TITLE PEAK DIRECTION VEHICLE VOLUMES AND VOLUME TO CAPACITY RATIO

Ne. AVERAGE SPEEDS ON PRIMARY CORRIDOR FACILITY CONGESTION LEVELS*

6 Comtrsfiow Freeway Lane Qe Corridor Freewey: vfe_RATIO*
Reserved for Buses: BEFORE AFTER
Favorable Impacts BEFORE AFTER.

Vebicte 7 Med Met Pt Mn Faction 1.00 0.96
Race 4720 28 4520 28 | Reeeved Comtrafiow Lane } 0.02
Carpool 250 2824028 | Now Reserved, Off-Peak Die. f'0.67 1.00
Track go 28 _ 260 28 | Conidr Arti
050 Peek Direction O76 | 0.78
aa") Off-Paok Direction
7 Costraftow Bus Lane, On Corridor Freeway:
Expanded Express Bus
Sarvies, and Park-and- AFTER Freeway
Ride Lot; Feverable Vehicle Type VeH MPH | Peak Direction 1.00 0gt
Impacts ‘Auto 4280 28 | Reserved Comtrafiow Lane 0.08
Carpool 220 28 | Now Reserved, Off Peak Die. [0.67 1.00
Bus a8
Track 260, 28 | Corridor Arterial
i310 ‘Peak Direction os O73
aan) Off-Peak Direction 050 050

8 Contraftow Bus Lave, Oe Corridor Freeway: v RATIO®
Expanded Service, snd RE AFTER
Lots; Assuming 70%/30% BEFORE ASTER f
Dicwctiowal Split; SAME AS SCENARIO 7 Peak Direction 1.00091
Fevoreble Impacts Amare Conmefion Lane, | 0.04

[Onty the off-peak freewey volumes were adjusted ta achieve | Non-Reserved, Off-Peak Die. /0.43 0.64

the TOK/20% instead of the uruel GOK/40% directional

split. This ia refiectad in a lower “hetora” V/C ratio for the Corridor Arterial

off-peak direction in colume to the right]. Peak Direction 07s | 073
Off-Peak Direction 050 0.50

f) Reserved Arterial Median On Comridor Arceril: wWe___Ratio*
‘Lane for Express Buses; BEFORE AFTER
Favorable Impacts BEFORE © AFTER

‘Vehicte Type, eH MPH = PH MPH . 1.03
‘Auto 2020 15 1440 15 | Reserved Medien Lar joe = 0.05
Carpoot 110 15, 80 15 | Off-Peak Direction as = 088
Local Bus 15 10 18 10
Expres Bus o- 2 2B
Track 0 15 = _110 15
2250 7,670
(25.8%)

10 Contraflow Curb Lave On Arterial Lanes in In-Bound Direction: we ___RATIO®
for Local Buses on Pri BEFORE AFTER
of One-Way Artorials; SEFORE AFTER Acoriats
Favorable Impacts Vehicle Type VPH MPH | VPH MPH | Penk Direction 08 O85

Aue 2660 15 2450 16 | Reserved Comafiow Lane yess o8
Carpost 140 15 «= '130_ 18 | NomReserved, Off-Peak Dir. 083
Local Bs 410 ages 15°
Express Bus 5 15 5 16
Treck 150 15 _150 18

3000 2,780

(13K)

**0n comrafiow bus lane of out bound arterial.

‘*v/C RATIO IS THE RATIO OF VEHICLE VOLUME TRAVEL DEMAND TO FACILITY CAPACITY (LEVEL OF SERVICE “E”,

1965 HIGHWAY CAPACITY MANUAL).

U1.12



9T “III

EXHIBIT 12

ILLUSTRATING THE SPATIAL VARIATION IN A.M. PEAK HOUR CO CONCENTRATION AROUND PROTOTYPE HIGHWAY FACILITIES*

ARTERIAL FREFWAY ASSUMED METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
10.000 wing ind Poronaenar tn Fem at 4 mutacin,
‘Stability Class € (Stable)
‘8,000}- Mixing Depth of 400 meters
au reax noun | SLANE SLANE
CO CONCENTRATION* ARTERIAL FREEWAY
w 4,
vale t0-
At
2,000)- \ ‘% MILE
f)
x
DISTANCE SCALE (MILES)
---~ BEFORE PROGRAM MILE
—— AFTER IMPLEMENTATION
ARTERIAL FREEWAY
wom
L MILE
#000} winp \ . x = »
oo
oo \. oo
‘AM PEAK HOUR \
CO CONCENTRATION® \,
ry \
um? 4,000} ~
~ “ i a MILE
2,000] wind
f 1 1 1 4 1 1 4
,? 2 2 4 8 8 Ts w
DISTANCE SCALE (MILES) . x pamuauM CONCENTRATION UI
"The idustrative CO concentrations displayed in this exhibin are for Scenasie 2. LS

‘The concsatrations are based on vehicular emissions from tho affected freeway
‘and arterial only.

MOTE:

‘The above ine segment plots connect discrete receptor
concentration values (at 0.1 mile intervals) and are aot
intanded to accurataly portray concentrations batwuen
these points,



L°Al

EXHIBIT 28

SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED IMPACTS FOR THE REGIONAL PROTOTYPE SCENARIOS

CHANGE IN REGIONAL CHANGE IN REGIONAL WEEKDAY CHANGE IN PROGRAM COSTS IN 1976
PROTOTYPE SCENARIO WEEKDAY VMT HIGHWAY EMISSIONS IN TONSt ‘ANNUAL DOLLARS (x1,000)
= HIGHWAY
FUEL CAPITAL
AS PERCENT | AS PERCENT ue No. co CONSUMPTION) (ONE-TIME, | INCREMENTAL
10 OF TOTAL | OF WORK x 1H MILLIONS | IMPLEMENTA: | OPERATING
We. ORIEF TITLE® vet TRIP YMT OF GALLONS Ton) (PER YEAR)
" Corpoct/Vanpeot Program, Medium 15% 6% “ue 06" -15.0° -26" - 1
Size City; Favorable Impocts
2 Carpeol/Vanpool Propram, Large
City; Favorable tmpacts 1.8% 50% 13 “28 -04 “16 - a0
13° | Revarved Bax/Poo! Lanes, Ramp
‘Metering, and Bus By-Pass Lanes on
‘AN! Appropriate Freeways; Modest
Armpacts 026K 8% -03 -0s +26 15 | a sesoes 5253
14] Reserved Bus/Poot Lanes, Ramp
‘Metering, and Bus By-Pass Lanes on
‘All Appropriate Freeways; Favorable
tropacts 0.45% 15% -28 -04 -18 27 | 1070023606 rss
15 | Reserved Median Lane for Express
Buses on Appropriate Radial Ar-
terials; Modest tmpacts 0.2% 08% at “04 +2 - 1.6 | 8,060/21,708 soe
16 | Reserved Median Lane for Express
Buses on Appropriate Radial Ar-
terials; Favorable tmpacts 0.38% 1% -07 +68 -29 19,568/21,708 oaee
17 | Carpoot/Vanpoct Program and Free-
way Reserved Lones; Modest Impacts | -1.0% 33% -24 “19 -281 -72 | epoane.see sacs
18 | Carpoot/Vanpoot Program and Free-
way Reserved Lanes; Fevorable
Impocts 19% 43% -105 -33 “01 “4 11,190/16,050 921
19 | Carpoot/Vaopoo! Program, Reserved
‘Lanes, Ramp Metering, ond Bus By-
Pass Lanes; Modest pacts 10% 33% -45 -16 -700 -73 | 1asee/9.c48 5957
20 | Carpoot/Venpoot Program, Reserved
‘Lones, Ramp Metering, and Bus By-
Pass Loves; Favorable impacts 19% 65% 09 -33 -a8 42 | t8,744/23,608 7,202

*NU seonsries except #11 are fora “targe” city (1,000,000 + SMSA population). Scenario 11 is set in 2 “medium sizeTM city (800,000 - 1,000,000 SMSA population).
‘Estimated at 76°F assuming uninterrupted waffic flow conditions.



The report is intended to provide information to assist urban areas cov-
ered by EPA's Transportation Planning Guidelines in:

. assessing the applicability and potential of the three classes of
programs described above for improving localized and regional
air quality;

estimating and evaluating the cost-effectiveness of such pro-
grams and their related travel, energy consumption, cost,
and economic impacts; and

. identifying key factors (e.g., meteorological conditions, vehicle
type distributions, and vehicle operating speeds) likely to affect
air quality and air pollution emissions.

This information report addresses the above issues at a sketch planning scale
of analysis. More detailed transportation and air quality analyses will be
required to adequately address localized and regional air quality problems
within specific urban areas.

BACKGROUND
Problem

Virtually all urban areas of more than 200,000 population in the nation
currently do not meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for
photochemical oxidants (O,). Many of these areas also exceed National Am-
bient Air Quality Standards for carbon monoxide (CO). Vehicluar travel
within these urban areas is a major source of both pollutants.

As illustrated in Exhibit 1, transportation-related air quality problems
are of two general types: localized and regional.

Localized transportation-related air quality problems generally result in
CO concentrations exceeding either the one hour or more likely, the eight
hour CO air quality standard. Factors contributing to this problem include
high vehicular traffic volumes occurring under congested traffic conditions
frequently found in densely developed portions of urban areas.

Regional transportation-related air quality problems are typically a re-

sult of vehicular and stationary source hydrocarbon (HC) and nitrogen oxide
(NO,) emissions chemically reacting in the atmosphere to produce oxidant

1.2


roadway), the 8-hour NAAQS for CO may be violated under
typical, poor dispersion conditions at locations approximate-
ly 25 feet from the edge of the roadway.

. Ata distance of 50 feet from the edge of the roadway, peak
1-hour CO concentrations (from vehicle traffic alone) ex-
ceeding approximately 8,000 pg/m? suggest that the 8-hour
CO standard may be violated under typical, poor meteoro-
logical conditions.

Exhibit 14 can be used in conjunction with Exhibits 13, 15 and 16 to pre-
pare approximate estimates of maximum 8-hour CO concentrations for the
localized scenarios.

In Exhibit 15, the localized CO impacts for scenarios involving a con-
traflow bus lane on a six-lane freeway are presented. Note that even with
a favorable impact assumption, both contraflow bus lane scenarios yield
net increases in CO concentration when the peak hour directional split of
traffic is 60 percent/40 percent. This result stems from the condition that
increased congestion in the remaining off-peak direction lanes more than
counterbalances the emission reductions achieved by the projected shift
from autos to express bus.

However, when the base A.M. peak hour off-peak direction traffic is
assumed lighter (corresponding to a 70 percent/30 percent directional
split), the same strategy used in scenario 7 produces a net CO concen-
tration reduction in scenario 8. In all of these cases, the net percentage
impact is less than 5 percent, but these prototype results again demon-
strate the importance of site-specific details, such as peak traffic direc-
tionality, in determining both the magnitude and sign of the impact.

Exhibit 16 presents the CO concentration impacts for the two arterial
program scenarios. While the absolute changes are not large relative to
the national standard, the estimated percent reduction in CO concentration
achieved by the reserved median bus lane strategy in scenario 9 is substan-
tial (approximately 15 percent). However, this scenario is based on the
assumption of a total (local and express) bus modal split of 40 percent in
the corridor, which is reasonable, but may not be easily achieved in some
areas.

The results for the contraflow curb bus lane are mixed. Since a pair
of one-way arterials is involved, two maximum receptor concentration
points are present. In this case, the increase in concentration adjacent to
the arterial with the contraflow lane (caused by increased congestion in the

Il. 20


Regional Strategies

To improve regional air quality it is suggested that emphasis be placed
on the analysis of integrated areawide ride-sharing programs directed at
large employers and including carpool matching, vanpool formation assis-
tance, and promotional components, The findings of the literature review
also suggested assessing the regional air quality impacts of implementing
the promising radial corridor strategies in several corridors throughout
the region,

Well-organized areawide carpool matching programs focusing on large
employers may achieve up to five percent reductions in work trip VMT.
Employer oriented carpool programs are generally more effective than de-
centralized areawide programs . Vanpooling programs have also experi-
enced success in certain cases for large employers. With some rare ex-
ceptions, it is unlikely that areawide ride-sharing programs will have sig-
nificant localized air quality impacts.

The air quality impacts of both carpool matching and vanpool programs
can be significantly improved by incorporating ride-sharing incentive and
single occupancy auto disincentive strategies into the overall program.
Such strategies would include preferential parking for pool vehicles, lower
rate or free parking for pool vehicles, and special employer incentives for
employee pool members.

Assessment of Scenarios

Based on the literature review a total of 20 prototype scenarios were
selected for analysis and evaluation, These scenarios were defined to en-
compass the most promising carpool/vanpool, reserved lane, and transit im-
provement strategies and combination programs for improving air quality.

Ten of the scenarios deal with strategies which impact specific highway
corridors, thus affecting only a limited portion of total regional travel. The
analysis of these "localized" scenarios therefore focuses on their carbon
monoxide (CO) concentration impacts near the affected highway facilities.
The remaining ten scenarios have areawide travel impacts. The analysis of
these latter "regional" scenarios thus focuses on their regional pollutant
emission impacts.

The scenarios were designed with some systematic variation in assumed
travel impacts and area size to facilitate generalizing the project's findings.
However, the extent of this planned variation in assumed prototype conditions
was limited by the number of scenarios analyzed in total and the need for a

iv


Capital and Operating Costs

Exhibit 25 presents the estimated capital and annual operating costs for
the regional scenarios. Appendix B presents the unit costs used in the de-
velopment of the capital and annual costs.

The costs for the regional scenarios represent order of magnitude esti-
mates. The development of detailed cost estimates was beyond the scope
of the project. The capital and operating costs for the regional scenarios
assume that some economies of scale would result from implementing re-
served lanes, ramp metering, bus by-pass ramps, and expanded express
bus service in multiple corridors within a large urban area. In this regard,
the unit costs presented in Appendix B were reduced by 25 percent in esti-
mating the capital and operating costs of the regional scenarios.

With the exception of scenarios 11 and 12, the largest individual cost
item for all of the scenarios is for improvements to express bus service.
Generally, the geographic coverage and the frequency of express bus service
were assumed to increase significantly in order to complement the reserved
HOV lanes and divert potentially large numbers of auto travelers. The an-
nual cost of bus service shown in Exhibit 25 represents the incremental cost
of providing bus service above that assumed in the base case (i.e., "before"
case). As for the localized scenarios, the costs of implementing ramp me-
tering and park-and-ride facilities also are significant.

Based on express bus operations in Minneapolis and Seattle, annual oper-
ating revenues may cover approximately 50 percent to 66 percent of annual
operating and maintenance costs of express bus service presented in Exhibit
25. Sizeable annual operating subsidies may thus be needed to operate the
assumed express bus services. Subsidy levels may be more significant if
reduced fare programs are implemented.

Economic Impacts

The economic impacts of the regional scenarios are likely to be small.
The nature and magnitude of the impacts are likely to be similar to those
cited for the localized scenarios on page II. 22,

IIL. 37


EXHIBIT 4 (Continued)



congestion on remaining non-reserved lanes) more than counteracts the ef-
fects of the overall reduction in total VMT associated with these strategies.
This is particularly true for the reserved lane scenarios in which only mod-
est travel impacts are assumed. Under these circumstances, the congestion
caused by removing a lane for exclusive use of buses or buses and carpools
is reduced only slightly by the assumed modest shift from autos to preferen-
tially treated high occupancy vehicles.

These prototype emission results again demonstrate the importance of
initial travel and congestion conditions, highway facility design, and the rel-
ative magnitude of the induced modal shifts in determining the size and even
direction of air quality impacts of corridor-related actions. These strat-
gies can be effective, but the selection, design, and implementation of such
corridor or facility oriented actions must be carefully planned on a case-
by-case basis in light of the above considerations to avoid ineffective or
counterproductive air quality measures.

The dispersed nature of the VMT reductions associated with employer-
based carpool/vanpool programs makes congestion impacts of regional
significance unlikely. Thus, areawide carpool/vanpool programs can be
expected to have emission impacts more consistently in line with overall
regional VMT reductions. In designing and implementing such programs,
the major concern should be to focus on those employers and employment
concentrations which are not adequately served by public transportation,

Regional Fuel Consumption Impacts

Exhibit 24 presents the percentage changes in weekday highway fuel con-
sumption estimated for each of the nine large city regional scenarios. All
of the impacts are reductions, but they tend to be smaller reductions on a
percentage basis than the corresponding VMT reductions (see Exhibit 28).
This is again the result of congestion effects and the difference between the
assumed average speed/facility type/vehicle type distribution of total re-
gional VMT and the subset of regional VMT affected by the scenario strat-
egy. However, the differences between percentage regional fuel consump-
tion and VMT impacts are not as pronounced as for HC and CO emissions
because of a somewhat lesser sensitivity of fuel consumption rates to speed.
Exhibit 24 also indicates the absolute annual reduction in regional highway
fuel consumption in millions of gallons for each of the large prototype re-
gional scenarios.

"See Table A.5 for a discussion of the travel impact methodology used to
estimate VMT changes and average speed shifts associated with congestion
for the regional scenarios.

Il. 35


82 ‘I

EXHIBIT 18

MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR REGIONAL SCENARIOS

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO WEEKDAY REGIONAL VMT** PERCENT PERCENT CHANGE | PERCENT CHANGE
CHANGE I RELATIVE TO. RELATIVE TO
io BEFORE PROGRAM | AFTERPROGRAM | TOTAL REGIONAL WORK TRIP “AFFECTED”
Wo. vartes IMPLEMENTATION | IMPLEMENTATION var REGIONAL VMTt | REGIONAL VMT@
11 | Carpoot/Venpeo! Program, Medium
Size City; Favorable Impacts 9,946,000 9,699,000 1.5% 80% wa.
12 | Carpoot/Vanpool Program, Large
City; Favorable impacts 43,945,000 43,207,000 “15% - 0.8% wa,
13° | Reserved Bus/Poot Lanes, Ramp
Motoring, ond Bus By-Pass Lanes
00 Al Appropriate Fresways;
Modest Impacts 43,945,000 43,835,000 - 026% - 0.8% -01%
4 | Reserved Buc/Pool Lanes, Ramp
Adetoring, and Bus By-Pass Lanes
on All Appropriate Freeways;
Favorable bpacts 43,946,000 43,750,000 - 044% -1.5% - 10.8%
16 | Reserved Median Lone for Express
Buses 0a Appropriate Radial
‘Artarials; Modest Impacts 43,946,000 43,845,000 “023% 08% 12.8%
16 | Reserved btedian Lane for Express
‘uses on Appropriate Radial
‘Arteriais; Favorable impacts 43,945,000 “13% -23.2%
17 | Carpoot/Vanpoo! Program and
Freeway Reserved Lanes;
Modest Impacts 43,946,000 43,512,008 -1.0% -33% wa.
18 | Carpoot/Vanpoot Progrem and
Freeway Reserved Lanes;
Favorable linpects 43,946,000 43,110,000 18% -63% wa.
19 | Carpoot/Vanpool Program, Reserved]
Lanes, Ramp Metering, and Bus By-
Pass Lanes; Modest Impacts 43,946,000 43,506,000 1.8% “33% Wa.
20 | Cacpoul/Vanpool Program, Re-
served Lanes, Romp Metering, and
Bus By-Pass Lanes; Favorable
Impacts 43,945,000 43,092,000 - 18% - 6.5% wa.

AN sconarios except for #11 are tos a “large” city (1,000,000 + SMSA population).
‘Scenario 11 is sat in a “medium size” city (500,000 -1,000,000 SMSA population).

"Vehicle miles travelled on an average workday in the region
‘Work trip VMT is estimated at 30% of total weekday regional VMT..

72 miles of major radial arterials with a reserved median lane,

Scanarias 13 and 14: Consists of peak period, peak direction VT estimated to ba on:
ted



A summary of the major data sources, analytical assumptions, and pro-
cedures used to estimate non-cost impacts for each prototype scenario is pre-
sented in Appendix A, Section III summarizes the travel, air quality/emis-
sion, energy consumption, economic, and cost impacts for each scenario.

Evaluation of Scenario Impacts

Section IV evaluates the impacts of promising transportation programs
within the context of 20 prototype scenarios. The section analyzes the cost-
effectiveness of the alternative programs in promoting improved air quality
and reducing vehicular emissions in urban areas. The relative magnitude and
characteristics of the impacts for the localized and regional programs are
compared. An important element of this section is a discussion of factors,
such as prevailing meteorological conditions, stationary source emissions,
and future automobile emission rates, which may affect the transferability
of the project's findings to specific urban areas.

19


later in this section, the air quality impacts of a specific strat-
egy implementation can vary substantially, depending on the
Specifics (travel conditions, meteorology, highway geometrics,
etc.) of the application,

. As avery rough surrogate for the variability in some of these
factors, the concept of 'moderately favorable impacts" versus
"modest impacts" has been introduced into the description of
scenarios, Most of the scenarios assume ''moderately favorable
impacts." In other words, base modal split, congestion levels
and the advantages actually achieved by high occupancy vehicles
under the proposed actions are assumed to be those which result
in a reasonably favorable air quality impact (although within the
range of actual.past experience), For comparison purposes,
several scenarios have been defined the same as another, ex-
cept for an assumption of "modest impacts." The travel shifts
assumed for these scenarios are toward the lower end of past
experience, but not intended to be extremely unfavorable.

Localized Prototype Scenarios

Exhibit 7 describes the 10 prototype scenarios selected for analysis
of localized CO concentration impacts. These scenarios will be identi-
fied throughout this report by the iD number and brief title assigned
each in the exhibit. The major descriptive features and travel impact as-
sumptions for each scenario are presented in the table. Further details on
the travel impact analysis methodology appear in Appendix A. The third
column of Exhibit 7 references illustrative diagrams in Exhibit 8 which dis-
play the highway facilities assumed for each scenario,

The first eight localized scenarios deal with the priority treatment of
high occupancy vehicles on freeways, while the last two deal with priority
treatment of buses on arterials, The programs being implemented in a sce-
nario typically consist of several complementary actions, such as reserving
a freeway lane, expanding express bus service, and providing park-and-ride
lots in the corridor. As indicated in Section I, such combinations are typi-
cal of actual transportation programs implemented throughout the nation,

Regional Prototype Scenarios

Exhibit 9 presents and describes the 10 scenarios selected for analysis
of regional HC, NO,, and CO emission impacts, Comments analogous to
those made above about Exhibit 8 and the localized scenarios apply here.

IIL. 2


6@ I

EXHIBIT 16
LOCALIZED CO CONCENTRATION IMPACTS* : COMPARISON OF SCENARIOS INVOLVING RADIAL ARTERIALS AS

THE PRIMARY FACILITY
8.000 “IMPROVED CO LEVELS”
7,500 }-
Note: Scenarios 9 and 10 are not REDUCTION CAUSED
7,000}. completely comparable since the base CONCENTRATION
. vehicle volumes and highway facilities differ. ASSOCIATED WITH CONCENTRATION
esoo}- However, the direction and relative size of FACILITY ASSOCIATED
: the comegntration impacts can Be usefully EMISSIONS, WITH FACILITY EMISSIONS,
compare BEFORE ’
6,000} IMPLEMENTATION FTER IMPLEMENTATION
ona
5,500}
AM. PEAK 5,000} “WORSENED CO LEVELS”
HOUR CO
CONCENTRATION® 4,500 }-
AT RECEPTOR INEREASE CAUSED
50 FEET FROM 4,000 CONCENTRATION
DOWNWIND EDGE ane 0 é ASSOCIATED WITH
OF RELEVANT A FACILITY CONCENTRATION
ARTERIAL IN 3,600} EMISSIONS, ASSOCIATED
Hg! moter? AFTER WITH FACILITY EMISSIONS,
3,000}. IMPLEMENTATION BEFORE IMPLEMENTATION
2,500
@
2,000 METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
A: Typical, Good Dispersion
1,500
B : Typical, Poor Dispersion
1,000; @ SEE EXHIBIT 11 FOR DETAILS
500- * .
‘CO concentrations are based on vehicular emissions from affected
4 A B A B A B freeway and/or arterial facilities only and assume uninterrupted
traffic flow conditions. Other sources of CO emissions can be
9. RESERVED ARTERIAL LANE FOR ARTERIAL IN ARTERIAL IN substantial, but would not be affected by the programs being
EXPRESS BUSES (FAVORABLE IMPACTS) PEAK DIRECTION OFF-PEAK DIRECTION  anatyzed.

10. CONTRAFLOW CURB LANE FOR LOCAL
BUSES ON PAIR OF ONE-WAY ARTERIALS
(FAVORABLE IMPACTS)


PXUIBIT 3
PREEWAY PRIORITY TREATMENT FOR

new OCCUPANCY VEHICLES
enteeen tent tne [meer a a |e ~ te sa se

== Se SSE = es eet: srt a ematetateote

ae med

13


TABLE A.3:

BASE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE REGIONAL PROTOTYPES

B_ASSUME V/C RATIOS BY LEVEL OF SERVICE

ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
AND PROCEDURES BASIS OR SOURCE COMMENTS
1, GENERAL
‘A. ASSUMED SPEED BY LEVEL OF SERVICE CLASS
‘Average speeds bated on interpolstions | Average speeds in excess of 55 mph
Level of ‘of speed values for the stated levels of | were not permitted,
A] OG] C} 0 | & | F | seevicsin the Highway Ca
| Manuel, supplemented by judgmental | Assumed valid for travel impacts (i.e.,
Reed Type -sssurmptions where necessary. VT changes) as weil as base volumes.
a
FREEWAY 56 | 56 | 50 winf|z |
t
ARTERIAL
Ali butioca bus |] 35 | 27) 22] 17 | 15 | 8
Local bes | 2 |] | 8] s
LOCAL/COLLECTOR]| 15 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 5 | 5

Assumed volid for trevel impacts es
evel of well base values,
seve} a] s | c | o | e | &
Rood Type
FREEWAY
‘Assumed V/C
Averge || 30 | 50 | 85 | 78 | 95 | 1.06
Chess Range ||<.40},60,58].88.73 | 73.82)82-100| 190-110
ARTERIALS
Assumed V/C
Average as | 1.05
Class Range 1.0) 1008
i, MEDIUM SIZEO REGION
AL BASE REGIONAL WEEKDAY HIGHWAY VMT
(WEEKDAY VMTIN 1096's) Total VMT Value: Average total Annual VMT wes converted to weekday
a 4872 weekday VMT for 28 regions NIT with on snnualization factor of
vMT PERCENT |reporcing in the $00,000-1,000,000 | 339.5,
ROAD ANOVENICLETYPE || IN 1.000% | OF TOTAL | population group, Netionsl Trans -
ortation Report, Urban Data Medium-sized prototype region signed
A raza | 20.23% |Sipptenene WTA, Table 0. valves of evorgs of 20 rps in
| exeness aus a 0.05% $00,008-1.000.008 neoutation group
E Facility Type Oisrinerion: Using (average SMSA employment = 283,580)
W| rruck aos 4.8% | feiity type distribution scrons all ae
A of Re i coer tem awe dra Average occupancy af “Auto” when
Y | SUSTOTAL 2,308.8 26.36% _| soures. there is na breakdown into occupancy
auto 47908 “48.68% subgroups is 1.33.
a vel of Service Distribution: Using
Tj cocat aus 18.1 019% — |eample ‘ssiprment model VMT | Since summaries ware available only tor
A | truck 215 aay [BY COS summary for Alleyteny Couney | 24 heut everage LOS, « more congerad
4 : 2 (Pittsburgh). For local/collector roads, } central county, yeer 2000 summary was
arteriel distribution used, except LOS | | used ta simolete current peak hour coe-
t_[susToraL “0.50% | +
tale mas aT SLBA —e and F ue assumed excuded. ditions,
GRAND TOTAL x 100.00% | Vehicle Type Distribution: Same ea | VMT mutrix achieved by applying each
“These VMT values are further dis toy six level of iia Tale AZ Far analytic! of thres dirtributions to total VMT using
sarvica categories (A through F) as indicrted to the right, simplicity only euros considered for | an independence assumption.
collector/loeal roads.
TCentinaed


The first two regional scenarios (11 and 12) deal with areawide carpool/
vanpool programs focused on major employers in a prototype medium-sized
region (500, 000-1 million population) and large region (1 million + population)
respectively, Scenarios 13 and 14 deal with the application of a combination
freeway corridor strategy for several corridors throughout the region. Sce-
narios 15 and 16 do the same for a combination arterial strategy. The last
four strategies involve the combination of both areawide carpool/vanpool and
freeway corridor strategy components.

LOCALIZED SCENARIO IMPACT ESTIMATES

In this section, the following impacts are presented and discussed for
each of the 10 localized scenarios:

. travel impacts and highway noise impacts;
. localized CO concentration impacts;

. capital and operating costs; and

. economic impacts.

Travel and Highway Noise Impacts

The estimation of travel impacts for each scenario was a critical first
step in the analysis. Estimates of emissions, localized CO concentration,
and highway noise impacts all follow from the travel impact estimates.’ For
the localized scenarios which focus on specific freeway or arterial facilities,
these impacts include changes in vehicle volume and speed for each major
vehicle type (auto, carpool, bus, and truck),

Aside from their use as input to air quality and other impact estimates,
travel impact estimates are valuable for strategy or program assessment
and evaluation in their own right. Travel time and congestion impacts are
both significant evaluation considerations. Examining the detailed travel
impacts of a strategy under given prototype conditions can also supply val-
uable information on operational requirements (e.g., signing, enforcement)
and potential trouble areas; (e.g., congestion points, traffic "conflict" lo-
cations); ways in which a strategy might be implemented under specific con-

See Table A. 1 of Appendix A for a flowchart of the overall analysis and im-
pact estimation procedure.


Selection of TSM Actions for Analysis

The analysis of the prototype localized and regional scenarios demon-
strates the need to clearly define the geographic scale of the air quality
problems facing an urban area. The selection of transportation measures
for analysis should be consistent with the scale of the area's air quality
problems. Many measures, such as reserved HOV lanes, are particularly
applicable to alleviating localized air quality problems while other tactics,
such as carpool and vanpool programs, are appropriate for addressing
regional air quality problems.

For example, the results of the regional scenarios illustrate that the
application of the HOV freeway or arterial lanes on multiple radial high-
ways was substantially less effective in reducing regional air pollution
emissions than the carpool/vanpool programs. However, these same
strategies were considerably more effective in reducing CO concentra-
tions adjacent to applicable freeways and arterials.

Iv.12


Exhibit 18 summarizes the travel impacts for the 10 regional scenarios.
With the exception of the first scenario, all pertain to the large prototype
region (in the 1,000,000+ SMSA population range), Scenario 11 is set in the
medium-sized prototype region (500, 000-1, 000,000 SMSA population range).
For each regional scenario, Exhibit 18 presents the absolute "before" and
"after" regional weekday VMT as well as the percent change this represents,
In addition, the VMT change is also expressed as a percent of regional work
trip VMT and (where appropriate) as a percent of the total VMT estimated
to be directly affected by the scenario program, These last two percentage
impact values are intended to provide a better indication of the strategy im-

pact within the affected travel market (which can be substantially smaller
than total regional travel).

The following major observations are relevant:

- although the absolute quantities are different, the percentage
changes in regional VMT for the carpool/vanpool program ap-
plied in both the medium-sized and large prototype regions are
essentially the same;

+ the carpool/vanpool program, focused on major employers, is
generally several times more effective in reducing regional VMT
than multiple areawide application of the corridor strategies,
primarily because it has a larger affected travel market;

. carpool/vanpool programs can be combined with multiple ap-
plications or radial corridor strategies with little competitive
overlap of individual impacts, since the two affected travel mar-
kets are largely mutually exclusive when the programs are cor-
rectly implemented; and

Regional HC, NO,, and CO Emission Impacts
e

Using the latest EPA mobile source emission factors for 1978,' base con-
dition weekday regional highway emissions were calculated for the medium-
sized and large prototype urban regions, Changes in weekday regional high-
way emissions were calculated for each of the 10 regional scenarios. Re-
gional emission estimates were made for hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides
(NO,,), and carbon monoxide (CO).

All of the emission estimates were made for the standard reference con-
ditions of 75° F and 75 grains/b. absolute humidity, However, a limited

‘As of February 1978,

II. 27


APPENDIX A

ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY

AA:

A2:

Ab:
AT:

AB:
AS:

FOR NON-COST IMPACT ESTIMATES

Overview of Technical Approach for Air Quality Impacts Analysis

Base Travel Conditions for Localized (Corridor) Prototypes

: Base Travel Conditions for the Regional Prototypes
}: Estimating Travel Shifts for Localized Prototype Scenarios

}: Estimating Travel Shifts for Regional Prototype Scenarios

Estimating Highway Emissions
Estimating Localized Concentration Impacts

Estimating Regional Fuel Consumption Impacts
Mustrative Calculation of Travel Shifts


rate or free parking for pool vehicles, and special employer incentives for
employee pool members. While many of these strategies are themselves
beyond the scope of this study, they are noted to emphasize the importance
of an integrated metropolitan area transportation control plan incorporating
both regional and local elements.

Overall, well planned and implemented carpool matching and vanpool
programs are likely to be cost-effective. The challenge faced by these or-
ganized ride-sharing programs is to surmount the barriers resulting from
variable working hours, on-the-job auto requirements, home or work lo-
cation, and strong travel preference for driving alone.

Transit Fare Reductions and Service Improvements

Transit improvement strategies are an essential element of any com-
prehensive program to improve air quality by providing low-occupancy ve-
hicle disincentives and high-occupancy vehicle incentives. These programs
can only be effective if an attractive alternative is provided which does not
involve a severe loss of mobility or travel amenities. Some of the many tran-
sit improvement strategies which may be included in such an incentive/disin-
centive package are: reducing transit fares; improving transit facilities
(shelters, etc.); improving security arrangements; expanding bus services,
especially express bus services; marketing programs; fare collection meth-
ods (use of discount passes, tokens); and providing paratransit services.

In addition to serving as a necessary element of comprehensive trans-
portation programs, public transit improvements promote air pollution
and VMT reductions. Fare reductions and service initiation or expansion
focused on radial express bus service could have a significant impact on
localized CO problems in major commuting corridors, especially when
combined with strategies giving priority freeway or arterial treatment.

Expanded radial express bus service can be a cost-effective approach
for achieving air quality improvements. Substantial regional fare reductions
and service improvements can generate substantial transit ridership in-
creases--up to 25 percent or more, but these programs can be costly.

The relatively low cost-effectiveness ranking of these approaches is the
result of the price inelasticity of transit ridership (typically an elasticity
in the neighborhood of -0. 3) and the difficulty of translating any marginal
increase in transit service into a perceived improvement in service for
a significant number of potential users.

Tl.is


large part related to the limited size of the peak period radially-oriented
CBD travel market in most large urban areas, For example, home to work
trips and VMT comprise approximately 20 percent and 30 percent of total
weekday regional person trips and VMT, respectively. Travel survey data
suggest that approximately 15 percent of home to work person trips are
oriented to the CBD of large urban areas,

Scenarios 11 and 12, which involve major employer carpool and van-
pool programs, are particularly cost-effective in reducing regional air pol-
lution emissions,

Scenarios 13 through 17, which incorporate express bus service and re-
served freeway or arterial lanes in multiple corridors, are less cost-effec-
tive than Scenario 12 in reducing HC emissions, The combination of carpool
and vanpool programs with express bus service/reserved lane strategies in
Scenarios 18 and 20 are estimated to result in larger reductions in HC emis-
sions than Scenario 12 but for a significantly larger cost.

Considerations in Air Quality Analyses

The report illustrates the magnitude and type of air quality, emission,
travel, fuel consumption, and cost impacts that could result from the imple-
mentation of selected TSM actions in settings similar to those described for
the 10 localized and 10 regional scenarios. The reader should note that
the impact estimates developed in the project are scenario-specific and
great care must be taken in attempting to directly apply the results of this
analysis to specific real-world circumstances.

The impacts presented in this report also reflect assumed "modest"
and "favorable" travel impacts based on the findings of the literature re-
view. The travel impact estimates are considered to be reasonable, par-
ticularly in light of the wide range in travel impacts which have been ob-
served in demonstration projects. However, substantially different travel
impacts could occur in a specific application, depending upon the charac-
teristics of the project.

The application of TSM tactics such as pricing incentives/disincentives,
auto restricted zones, area licensing, and parking pricing and supply con-
trols in conjunction with the reserved lane, carpool, vanpool and related sce-
nario tactics has not been examined in this report, Such tactics combined
with those examined in this report offer considerable promise for achieving
even more significant reductions in emissions.

ix


EXHIBIT 10
MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR LOCALIZED SCENARIOS

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO A.M. PEAK HOUR TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN CO IMPACT AREA

to Tme PEAK DIRECTION VEHICLE VOLUMES AND VOLUME TO CAPACITY RATIO

Ne. AVERAGE SPEEDS ON PRIMARY CORRIDOR FACILITY CONGESTION LEVELS*

1 Expanded Expram Bes (On Corridor Freewey: ve ___RATIO®
‘Service in Mixed Freewey BEFORE AFTER
Trafic Fevreletpeets | FOR! in f

tite Type vPH 100 0ST
Cs: i Off-Peak Direction os? (067
Carpest mam
treet 8 F Pe | pore os 6074
by] tr Off-Peak Direction oso aso
(3.10
se ee iio are
Favorable Impact SEFORE AFTER f
Vehicle Type VPH MPH PH MPH Lone ji oat
Ate 6290 28) 5,030 28** | Now-Reserved, Peak Ole. 1.02
Carpost 330 28 600 43 | OFF Peak Direction 067 (087
ou 26 28 43
Truck i 28 350 28°* | Corridor Artarish
To Peak Direction 07 6 070
370 Off-Peak Direction 050 aso
"Doss nat inctude effects of additional stop-and-ge delay
(estimated at aver 0.5 minute) caused by aver-cepacity
congestion.
3 Fam Morin ees: (On Corrider Freewey: ve___RATIO®
—
‘ Vehicle T) ier iu en A Far Teton 1.90 093
Ane | side" | On-pwt Dion os7 087
Carpoot 0 230 30
Ld 28 2 S830 | Comidor Arterial,
Track 0 2 Be 30 | Penk Direction 075 073
7000 Off-Peak Direction osd = 058
om

4 Reserved Bux/Poot On Corridor Freewey: we __Rarioe

Ramp Metacing, SEFORE AFTER
ea bo byron Lane: BEFORE = AFTER Freewny 1 an
Modest Impects Vehicle Type MPH | Reserved Lane 08

Aue oe 3 44AQ"* 25°° | Non-Reserved, Peak Dir. } 1A
Corpont 330 28 508 43 | (Off-Peak Direction 0s7 087
ous 26 28 2 43
Track -350 28 _280°*28°* | Comridor Arterial
7006 S270% Peak Cirection 07s a7
(24.7%°*) | Off-Peak Direction 050 aso
£*1,030 vehicles formerty using freeway in peak hours are nat
able to pam through because of breakdown of flow (i,
level of servies “FTM) on non-reserved lana; over-capecity
congestion ertimated to cause stopand-ge delay over 25
miautas on freeway which ia net reflected in spend,
[Although these travel impacts sopgect that en overeil wersen-
ing ot localized air quality weeld result, the complex nature
of the impacts predude CO concentration impect estimates
{or this scomsrie, given the prototype nature of the enelysis] .
s Resarved Bux/Poel Lene, On Cocrider Freewey:
Ramp Metering, ond
Bus By Pam Leones; vehi ee AETER Freeney 100 oat
Favorable impect, ebicle Type leserved Lane ;
6200 284920 es Non-Reserved, Peak Die. } 1.00
Carpeet 330 28 O43 | (Of Peak Dienction ost 087
Trek aes Corridor Arterial
‘rec rider it
738 5300 Peak Direction — 075 0.88
(44.60) Off-Peak Direction 050 050

Vie RATIO IS THE RATIO OF VEHICLE VOLUME TRAVEL DEMAND TO FACILITY CAPACITY (LEVEL OF SERVICE “E”,
1965 HIGHWAY CAPACITY MANUAL).


EXHIBIT B

SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED IMPACTS FOR THE REGIONAL PROTYTYPE SCENARIOS

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO CHANGE IN REGIONAL, CHANGE IN REGIONAL WEEKDAY CHANGE IN PROGRAM COSTS IN 1976
WEEKDAY VMT NIGHWAY EMISSIONS IN TONS! ANNUAL DOLLARS (11,000)
> - pa | yen ——-+{ micuway  }—-.———-
FUEL CAPITAL
AS PERCENT | AS PERCENT uc no co [CONSUMPTION] (ONE-TIME, | wCREMENTAL

to OF TOTAL | OF Wonk x IN MILLIONS | IMPLEMENTA: | OPERATING
Wo. ONIEF TITLES vMT TRIP YMT OF GALLONS 10M) (PER YEAR)
" Corpool/Vanpool Program, Mes 15% 5.0% -6* ~15.0° -26" - 16

Size City; Favorable Impacts
12 | Carpoot/Vanpoo! Program, Lerge

City; Favorable Impacts 5.0%
13, | Reserved Bus/Poo! Lanes, Ramp
4

15%

5

Buses on Appropriate Radial Ar-

terials; Modest fripacts 0.29% 0.8%
16 Reserved Median Lane for Express

Buses an Appropriate Madial Ar-

terials; Favorable tmpacts 0.38% 1%
17 | Carpoot/Vanpoot Program and Free:

way Reserved Lanes: Modest Impacts

Pass Lones; Modest impacts 14,586 /19,446 5.957
20 | Cerpoot/Venpoot Prowram, Reserved

Lanes, Ramp Metering, and Bur By-

Pass Lanes; Favorable Impacts -19% 65% —109 -13 19 142 18,749/23,604 7,202

“AN scenarios except 1/11 are fore “large” city {1,000,000 + SMSA population). Scenario 11 ts set in a ”

JEstimated at 75°F assuming wainterrupted traffic How conditions.

yedium size” city (500,000 - 1,000,000 SMSA population).


f EXHIBIT 8

ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAMS OF AFFECTED PROTOTYPE HIGHWAY FACILITIES
A. 8 LANE FREEWAY AND ADJACENT CORRIDOR ARTERIAL

10 Mites
<— 1Mile —>
r be 1 Mile >
8 LANE 1 ie eo
FREEWAY T HY
{ > ceo
1
1
Diagram Not To Scale \
6 LANE
ARTERIAL*

*Assume another 64ane arterial and one 4-lane arterial in Impact Area (1 Mile Square)
corridor for travel shift purposes, but not crossing the
designated CO concentration impact area

B. 8 LANE FREEWAY WITH RAMP METERING AND ADJACENT CORRIDOR ARTERIAL
SAME AS DIAGRAM A, EXCEPT THAT THE FREEWAY IS EXPLICITLY ASSUMED

TO EXTEND OUT FROM CBD 15 MILES AND THE LOCATION OF ON-RAMPS
(METERED) AND BUS BY-PASS LANES ARE NOW INDICATED (ONLY CHANGED

FEATURES SHOWN BELOW):
15 MILES co

—— Ss

- cep
el

7 A a TAT a 7 77

M M M M M M M M MMM MMM MMM MM OM OM

B B B B B

Diagram to scale only along horizontal Md > hiram

C. 6 LANE FREEWAY AND ADJACENT CORRIDOR ARTERIAL

A.M, PEAK CONTRAFLOW TMa

6 LANE
FREEWAY
Diagram Not To Scale
if
t '
No Parking L---- XG
CO Concentration
ARTERIAL? Wo Parking impact area (1 mile square)

Assume another 6-ane arterial in corridor
for travel shift purposes, but not crossing
the designated CO concentration impact
area.


The scenarios were defined to represent "real-world" circumstances in
which the alternative programs of interest are typically implemented. The
use of scenarios, rather than actual projects which have been implemented,
provides a more consistent basis for comparing the cost-effectiveness and
the magnitudes and characteristics of the associated impacts for the pro-
grams of interest.

Scenarios were formulated to analyze alternative programs to improve
both localized and regional air quality. The transportation programs receiv-
ing detailed analysis and evaluation are summarized in Section IT.

Scenario Impacts

A variety of data sources and analysis procedures were used to estimate
the travel, emission, air quality, energy consumption, economic and cost im-
pacts for the programs and settings (i-e., scenarios) analyzed. Travel im-
pacts for each scenario were estimated based on the findings of the literature
review, supplemented as required by assumptions of the project team. Tra-
ditional urban transportation planning models were not used in the analysis
because of the difficulty of representing the programs of interest using such
procedures and because of the coarseness of the outputs of such models in
analyzing strategies for reducing localized CO concentrations.

Emphasis was placed on developing "reasonable" travel impact estimates
for each prototype based primarily on before-and-after travel impact data
found in the literature. This approach is consistent with the substantial range
of observed travel impacts associated with similar transportation programs
implemented throughout the nation.

A modified version of the EPA HIWAY Model and the current EPA mobile
source emission factors were used to estimate CO concentrations for localized
programs and tons of emissions by pollutant for regional programs, respec-
tively ? "The energy consumption, economic, and capital and operating cost
impacts for each prototype were estimated using published consumption rates,
unit costs, and other applicable data compiled in the literature review.

1
Environmental Protection Agency, User's Guide For HIWAY, A Highway Air
Pollution Model. EPA-650/4-74-008, February 1975.

2
Environmental Protection Agency, Mobile Source Emission Factors. January
1978.

18


EXHIBIT 1
ILLUSTRATIVE TRANSPORTATION-RELATED AIR POLLUTION PROBLEMS

TYPE OF AIR QUALITY | TYPICALIMPACT _| SELECTED TRAVEL FACTORS
PROBLEM POLLUTANT STANDARD AREA CONTRIBUTING TO PROBLEM
SHOUR
sHOUR ° © HIGH VEHICULAR
10,000 »am/metar3|® INTERSECTIONS TRAFFIC VOLUMES
LOCALIZED | CARBON MONOXIDE (9 PPM) @ STOP AND GO TRAFFIC
1HouR jo LOCATIONS ADJACENT |" Fs ows (eg, IDLING)
40,000 gm, TO FREEWAYS
(35 PPM) AND ARTERIALS
OVERALL URBAN AREA| © HIGH VEHICULAR
pxotocuemican | HOUR. (BASED ON OXIDANT | TRAFFIC VOLUMES
REGIONAL oxipant | (rosea | CONCENTRATIONS = | |
, MEASURED AT HIGH SPEEDS

SPECIFIC LOCATIONS)

a/STANDARD NOT TO BE EXCEEDED MORE THAN ONCE PER YEAR.

I

3



minimum degree of uniformity among scenarios (so that impact estimates
among different strategies would be comparable).

Localized Scenarios

Exhibit 7 in Section II of this report describes the 10 prototype scenarios
selected for analysis of localized CO concentration impacts. The first eight
localized scenarios deal with the priority treatment of high occupancy vehi-
cles on freeways, while the last two deal with priority treatment of buses on
arterials, The programs being implemented in a scenario typically consist
of several complementary actions, such as reserving a freeway lane, expand-
ing express bus service, and providing park-and-ride lots in the corridor.

As indicated in Section II, such combinations are typical of actual TSM pro-
grams.

Exhibit A summarizes the following impacts of the localized scenarios:
» peak hour vehicle volumes on affected highway facilities;

. peak hour CO concentrations (reflecting vehicle emissions
only) for both typical, good and typical, poor dispersion
conditions; and

. the capital and annual operating and maintenance costs of
the scenarios,

The freeway-based scenarios (Scenarios 1-8) are likely to achieve re-
ductions in overall peak hour corridor traffic volumes ranging between 1.5
percent and 7 percent. The estimated reductions in peak direction, peak
hour traffic volumes on the freeways in these scenarios ranged between 3 and
15 percent.

The arterial scenarios analyzed (Scenarios 9 and 10) can also promote
4 to 15 percent reductions in peak hour vehicular volumes. As is true for
the freeway scenarios, the attainment of such reductions is highly depen-
dent upon the specific setting in which such strategies may be implemented,
However, the percentage reductions in vehicular volumes for arterials are
based on smaller base volumes and are not fully comparable to the corridor
volumes in the freeway scenarios.

Generally the relative reductions in peak hour CO concentrations (under
typical, good dispersion conditions) shown in Exhibit A are several percent-
age points higher than the corresponding reductions in peak hour corridor
vehicle volumes but are generally several percentage points lower than the


TABLE A.9 (Continued)

I. Regional Scenario Travel Shifts (Scenario 12)

A. Travel Assumptions

The assumed travel, trip length and employment characteristics used to estimate travel shifts in this scenario
are presented in item B of Table A.5. These assumptions are summarized for convenience below:

VALUE ASSUMED FOR ANALYSIS
QUANTITY LARGE REGION

Regional employment 1,152,766

Average work trip length among

those forming carpools

Average work trip length among
those forming vanpools

Average carpool vehicle occupancy

Average vanpool vehicle occupancy

16 miles

25 miles

29

W

Average overall commuter vehicle
occupancy 1.20

Carpool participation rate; estimated
number of new carpool members per
regional employee as a result of pro-
gram 0.0255

Vanpool participation rate; estimated

number of new vanpool members per

ragional employee as a result of pro-

gram 0.005

B. Non-Circulatory VMT Change

The above estimates were used in conjunction with the following formula to estimate the change in regional
weekday non-circulatory VMT associated with the carpool/vanpool program:

cPTL _ cPTL vere _veTL
AVMTye * sno (ec suet) crpR + (uroce wut) vm



pe “IIIT

PERCENT CHANGE
{N REGIONAL
WEEKDAY HIGHWAY
CARBON MONOXIDE
EMISSIONS

(75°F)

2.0%

1.0%

1.6%

1.4%

12%

08%

06%

0.4%

02%

0%

EXHIBIT 23
ESTIMATED IMPACTS FOR NINE REGIONAL SCENARIOS IN A LARGE URBAN AREA:
REGIONAL CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS

a3
Out TONS
TONS
pi

434
ToNs*

‘a DECREASE INCREASE
mo

{
rt
rt
te
toe

"ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE REGIONAL CHANGE IN CO EMISSIONS FOR

PROTOTYPE URBAN REGION OF APPROXIMATELY 7,500,000 - 3,000,000
‘SMSA POPULATION AND AN AVERAGE BASE WEEKDAY CO HIGHWAY EMISSIONS
OF 4,868 TONS (AT 75°F).

Estimates assume uninterrupted traffic flow conditions.


characteristics of specific demonstration projects varied significantly and
the data reported were frequently incomplete, ambiguous, or reported in a
form that made comparison difficult. Finally, data were primarily available
for larger urban areas, so the impacts of these programs on smaller areas
is uncertain.

Assessment of Strategy Impacts and Potential

Freeway priority strategies can have significant localized (CO) air
quality impacts and reduce vehicle volumes in the peak period by 3 to 10
percent. Freeway priority strategies are especially effective when applied
as part of strategies favoring high occupancy vehicles in a corridor and dis-
couraging the use of automobiles through disincentives (e.g., parking
charges and restraints, etc.). Other factors which can promote the effective-
ness of such strategies include a soundly designed enforcement program,
improved transit service and marketing programs, and a public information
program to inform affected travelers of the benefits and costs of reserving
an existing freeway lane for HOV's.

When these strategies are implemented to improve localized CO air qual-
ity, great care in planning and implementation is necessary. Diversions to
and from parallel roads and the possibility of creating counterproductive in-
creases in congestion on non-priority lanes must be considered in designing
these strategies. Even when the travel time for high occupancy vehicles is
reduced substantially by the strategy, regional air quality and VMT impacts
of freeway priority strategies are not very significant. The reasons for
this are:

. CBD oriented peak work travel, that travel primarily suscep-
tible to these strategies, is only a fraction of total travel; and

. despite the travel time reduction, overall door-to-door travel
time may still be shorter by single occupant car than by either
bus or carpool,
As with any of the strategies, the freeway priority strategies can make a
useful contribution to regional air quality as part of a comprehensive pack-
age of strategies whose total impact is significant.

Among the freeway strategies treated in the strategy summary tables,
the following seem to have the greatest potential in terms of travel impact:

. with-flow freeway lanes reserved for buses and carpools;

. contraflow bus-only lanes on freeways; and

II.5


Exhibit

BARN RWNHe

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18
19

20

21

22

23

24

LIST OF EXHIBITS

Illustrative Transportation-Related Air Pollution Problems

Generalized Analysis and Evaluation Framework

Freeway Priority Treatment for High Occupancy Vehicles

Arterial Priority Treatment for High Occupancy Vehicles

Area-Wide Carpool and Vanpool Programs

Transit Fare Reductions and Service Improvements

Localized Scenarios Selected for Detailed Analysis

Illustrative Diagrams of Affected Prototype Highway Facili-
ties

Regional Scenarios Selected for Detailed Analysis

Major Travel Impacts for Localized Scenarios

Tlustrating the Impact of Prevailing Meteorological Condi-
tions on A.M. Peak Hour Concentrations

Illustrating the Spatial Variation in A.M. Peak Hour CO
Concentration Around Prototype Highway Facilities

Localized CO Concentration Impacts: Comparison of Sce-
narios Involving 8 Lane Freeway

Relationship Between Maximum 8-Hour and Peak 1-Hour
CO Concentrations for Typical, Poor Dispersion Con-
ditions

Localized CO Concentration Impacts: Comparison of Sce-
narios Involving Contraflow Lane on 6 Lane Freeway

Localized CO Concentration Impacts: Comparison of Sce-
narios Involving Radial Arterials as the Primary Facility

Capital and Annual Operating and Maintenance Costs for
Localized Scenarios

Major Travel Impacts for Regional Scenarios

Tllustrating the Effects of Temperature on Regional Emis-
sions

Comparison of Estimated Regional Impacts of a Carpool/
Vanpool Program Implemented in Two Prototype Regions

Estimated Impacts for Nine Regional Scenarios in a Large
Urban Area: Regional Hydrocarbon Emissions

Estimated Impacts for Nine Regional Scenarios in a Large
Urban Area: Regional Nitrogen Oxides Emissions

Estimated Impacts for Nine Regional Scenarios in a Large
Urban Area: Regional Carbon Monoxide Emissions

Estimated Impacts for Nine Regional Scenarios in a Large
Urban Area: Regional Highway Fuel Consumption

xii

Page

I.

I.
Il.
11.6
II.10
11.13

I1.3

ww

III.5
TIl.7
It...
TII.14
III-16

I1.17

T1.19

T1.21

TII.22

T1.24
T1.28

T1.30

Ill.31

III.32

II1l.33

I1.34

Ill.36


. vide-sharing programs and the reported results almost always
focus on work trip travel, which is only a portion of total travel;

« reported "after" results for ride-sharing programs frequently
focus on the near term responses among the best organized pro-
grams--participation rates may decline over time as program
enthusiasm wears off and ride-sharing relationships run into
difficulties; and

. the results of actual ride-sharing demonstrations and model
estimates are difficult to compare or combine because the im-
pact results tend to be reported in different forms for each and
the model estimates are usually based on impact assumptions
and time/cost simulation equivalences which may not be entirely
compatible with the demonstration experiences.

Assessment of Strategy Impacts and Potential

Well-organized areawide carpool matching programs focusing on major
employers can have a positive impact on regional air quality and reduce
work trip VMT by 1 to 5 percent. Generally, employer-focused programs
are more effective than decentralized, areawide programs. The major
reason for this is that the reluctance to provide personal information con-
nected with the matching program and to ride with strangers tends to be
reduced when employers are actively involved in the program. With some
rare exceptions, it is unlikely that areawide ride-sharing programs will have
significant localized air quality impacts.

Vanpooling programs have also experienced success in certain cases
for large employers. Vanpooling programs should be incorporated into an
overall, integrated regional ride-sharing program. Since vanpooling is prac-
tical for large employers whose employees tend to commute more than 15
miles (one-way) to work, and since vanpooling and carpooling may be com-
petitive, it would not be advisable to evaluate the regional air quality impacts
of vanpooling as an isolated strategy.

Ride-sharing programs tend to be most effective when they are not
competitive with mass transit. Thus, programs should focus on employers
which are not located in downtown areas or areas not well-served by transit.

The air quality impacts of both carpool matching and vanpool programs
can be significantly improved by incorporating ride-sharing incentive and
single occupancy auto disincentive strategies into the overall program,
Such strategies would include preferential parking for pool vehicles, lower

Ir.12


TABLE AS

(CONTINUATION 1)
ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
‘ANO PROCEDURES BASIS OR SOURCE COMMENTS
(Continued)
val FOR ANALY:
QUANTITY —_ MEDIUM SIZED REGION.
‘Average work 25 miles 25 mites Exniie 5. Crepara ge of 1828 | Vee of 25 mn slctd tobe uae
‘trip lengeh distinction bated on middle of reported range. Economic
arnoag those bisa feasibility requirements of vanpools
forming ‘are more relevant then region's overall
vanpeols arverage trip langths.
Avereye carpacl ut 29 i, Exhibit §, AZ reports Median of range chosan,
vehicle occupancy range of 2.93.3,
‘Lage: Weaner pagar rare # 220- | Valen of 2.9 chown wae shy above
Tange with a 2.8 average. middie of range, refiecting fevorable
impacts assumption a1
with value for “medi
‘Averege vanpoo! " " Exnibie §, C suger erage of Economic feasibility requirements of
vehicle occupency about 11. ara more relevant thea 207
regional variation in average vehicle
necupency.
Averege averail 1.25 1.20 :, Exhibit §, A2 reports Chosan value is slightly below reported
commuter range of 1.0-1.8, Wagner pager ‘average and at lower and of reparted
vehicle occupancy Yields average of 1.29. range ta reflect favorable impact
escumption of base analysis,
Exhibit §, At reports range | Chosen value is slightly below reported
1.42, Wagoer paper yields average and middle of reported range
average of 1.23, to reflect favorable impact assumption
of base analysis,
Carpool participation 0.0273 0.0288 Medium: (See notation to right) Rate calculated 2s product of:
‘ate; estimated num-
ber of new carpoot X chosen as 0.022 from range of ratio of new permanent carpoats
members per regions! 017-024 reported in Exhibit §, A2. formed to exposed employees (X);
employee 2s a result
of progam Y chosen #1 0.40 from range of 17- | © fraction of tate regional employees,
5A reported in Exhibit 5, AZ. Some- exposed (¥); and

whet higher than estimate for
Sacrumanta thet 33% of employees
are of smployars of 200 or more

(Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co, Car.

pooling Impact Study}.
POC as above,
:-X chesan as 0.25 from range

074 (clustered mare toward
lower end) reported in Exhibit §, Al.

‘© average assumed carpool occupancy
(cPoce).

Values of individual factors chosen to
raflect reasonably favorable impacts in
tight of:

‘© competition from vanpooting com-
ponent of program (not uszaily
present for documented experiences
‘an an areewide scale); and

A.13

Y ghana 0.38 from range of 18-
A2 reportad in Exhibit 6, AT, Ap- |» fact that documented experiences
proximately equal to estimate for ‘tend to be representative of high
Chicago that 16% of employees are motivation and favorable conditions.
‘of emplayers of 200 or mare
(PMM&Co., Carpooling impact
| Study).
(Continued)



TABLE A.3

(CONTINUATION 1)
ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
AND PROCEDURES BASIS OA SOURCE COMMENTS
i, LARGE REGION
A. BASE REGIONAL WEEKDAY HIGHWAY VMT
(WEEKDAY VMT IN 1000's) Total VMT Value and Facility Same comments 1s for 11.8 ofthis table,
‘Type Distribution obtained as in ‘except that the {arge prototype region
vet | PERCENT | | 11.A of this table, but fr 23 re \d values of average of 23 regions
ROAD ANO VEHICLE TYPE || 1 1,000' | OF TOTAL| | porting regions ia the 1,000,000 in 1,000,000 + population group

+ population range. {average SMSA employment =

F]auro vo2185 | 23.26% fiat

f JexPRess aus 2 0.08% | | Level of Service Gistitytion a
Vehicle Type Distribution exactly

Ww} Tauck 2,080.9 460% | |

¥ [sugtoTat 123068 | 28.00%

a yauro we21at | 41.45%

IE jLocat sus 8 0m%

F

y, [Truex 39781 837%

t {suerorac 21,9037 | 49.98%

[Colector/Local (Auto Only) 9,678.7 | __22.02%

GRANO TOTAL 43,945.0_| 10.00%

*Thase VMT values are further disaggregated by six level of
sarvice catagories (A thraugh F), 23 indicated to the right,



LIST OF EXHIBITS (Continued)

Exhibit Page
25 Capital and Annual Operating and Maintenance Costs for
Regional Scenarios IlI.38
26 Summary of Estimated Impacts for the Localized Prototype
Scenarios
27 Comparison of Localized Scenarios on Cost and CO Con-
centration Impacts IV.4
28 Summary of Estimated Impa" 5 for t e Regional Prototype
Scenarios IV.7
29 Comparison of Regional Scenarios on Cost and Regional
Emissions Impacts IvV.8


TABLE A.5:

ESTIMATING TRAVEL SHIFTS FOR REGIONAL PROTOTYPE SCENARIOS

ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
AND PROCEDURES

BASIS OR SOURCE

COMMENTS

ENERAL, FOR SCENARIOS INVOLVING EMPLOYER
ooL/v OL PROGRAMS

A, OVERALL APPROACH

‘Sines the carpaoi/vanpaol programs to be analyzed are am-
ployar based, the VMT impacts will be estimated on a “per
employee” basis and then multiplied by assumed regional
‘employment for the prototype region to obtain estimated
change in weekday regional VMT. This regional reduction
in VMT will then be distributed to lavel of service (average
speed) and rosd-type catagories so that emission and fuel
consumption impacts can also be estimated.

‘The overall changs ia VMT consists of twa components:

© noncireulatory — associsted with the shift from many
‘Tow occupancy vehicles to fewer high occupancy
vehicies (carpools and vanpools). A reduction results,

‘© sirculatory ~ associated with ad ;
‘aries Tocargool meeting pois and far pe
‘or dropping off nan-driving pool members. An in-
crease in VMT results.

8. NON-CIRCULATORY VMT REDUCTION

The ragional weekday change in non-cireulstory VMT
‘with carpool/vanpoa! programs is estimared
by multiplying regional employment by an average VMT
‘ving per employee associated with the program.

The per employes VMT saving factor is besad on the
assumed progrem participation rates; the change in
vehicle occupancies associated with the shift to carpools
ols; and the average work trip lengths invaived.

in estimating the non-cireulatory VMT
change associated with areawide employer carpool/vangool
rograms are 23 follows:

VALUE ASSUMED FOR ANALYSIS
QUANTITY MEDIUM SIZED REGION LARGE REGION

Regional om- 293,590 1,182,768

ployment

Average work 12 ules 16 miles
trip length
among those

forming carpoois

Projects” (Paper presented at Annual
Meating of the Federally Coordinated
Program of Research and Development
in Highway Transportation, Columbus,
Ohio, Nov. 8, 1977),

1970 U.S. Census Journey to Work
date

Madium: Exhibit 5, AZ reports
range of 8.8-18.5, Average value
for reported regions with appro-
priste populations in paper by
Frederick Wagner is 11.11.

Lane: Exhibit §, A1 reports range
0F6.3-22.3. Average for la
cities in Wagner paper is 15.28

Average number of SMSA wor
regions in $00,000-1,000,000
class (medium) and in the 23 regions in
1,000,000 + population group (large)

reporting VMT for the Netional Trane
portstion Study, respectively.

Chasan value of 12 is close to middie af
reported range and slightly larger than
average in Wagner paper, consistent with
‘typical “favorable impact” assumption.

Chosen value reflects same guidelines as
used for medium size ragio

(Continued)


TABLE AS

(CONTINUATION 5)
ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS:
ANO PROCEDURES BASIS OR SOURCE COMMENTS
(Continued)
farsitesaenrestus tend ox
assumed addit ‘per person travel
for bus-sccess of 1 mile from auto and
0.5 mile from local bus; (b) 10 mile

sasumed average trip langth; and (¢)
esnumed diseribution of increase of 25%
08 local roads st 15 mph and 75% an 25
aay aris ine chenge at work end of
ip).

For new trips by express bus: Based on:
‘Yel assumed 1 mile axtra travel per person
and (b) same 25%/75% distribution to
tocal roads and 25 mph arterials as
above.

Mt, GENERAL, FOR SCENARIOS INVOLVING MULTIPLE

INE STRATEGIES,

A, OVERALL APPROACH

‘The methodology and assumed values are the same as for free
way strategies outdined in section It of this table, with the.
exceptions given below.

8. NON-CIRCULATORY VMT CHANGES

“Affected VMT" for the arterial corridor regional scenarios is
that regional arcerial VMT estimated to be directly affycted by
the relevant reserved median bus lane strategies.

For the large prototype region, the “affected” weekday freeway
MT was estimated at 720,000,

‘The percant distribution of this VMT by vehicle types was

assamed to be the same used in the localized median tus lane
scenario {see table A.2, section 1]

C. CIRCULATORY VMT CHANGES

jan to the changes outlined for the regionel freeway

‘Analytical assumptions.

Analytical assumption.

The 1,073,000 “affected” freeway VMT
‘for the regional freeway strategies corre:
sponds to travel on roughly four, 10
mile radial freeways.

{In the same type of large prototype region,
itis assumed that roughly 8 majar radial
artarats with an average length of 9 miles
woul rapriate for application ot
strategy,

‘The “affected” VMT estimate is basad on
this 72 mules of roadway; an essumed
average pesk hour volume of 2,000 vph
(down fram 2,250 vph assumed for seq
meat 1 mile from CBD in localized
prototype scanacian); and 8 factor of 5
‘to convert peak hour to a.mJp.m, peak
periods travel.

the

(Continued)



o€ “II

EXHIBIT 19
ILLUSTRATING THE EFFECTS OF TEMPERATURE ON REGIONAL EMISSIONS*

215
700 - 7,000 -
250}-
600 225;- 6,000 |-
BASE 2007
500}- L-
REGIONAL ash 500
WEEKDAY
HIGHWAY
EMISSIONS 400 }- 150+ 4,000/-
IN TONS
FORA |.
125
LARGE a L
urean 300 3,000
REGION 1007
200 br 2,000
sor
roo} 1,000}-
75°F 32°F 25F 15°F 32°F 15°F 32°F
0 0 0
HYDROCARBONS NITROGEN OXIDES CARBON MONOXIDE

* Assumes uninterrupted traffic flow conditions.


g¢ “TIT

EXHIBIT 24

ESTIMATED IMPACTS FOR NINE REGIONAL SCENARIOS IN A LARGE URBAN AREA:
REG:ONAL HIGHWAY FUEL CONSUMPTION

2b

18% +

1.6% weit aie

muon MILLION
GALLONS ous
wax b
116
MILLION
GALLONS*

4%
PERCENT ‘ [
REDUCTION
(MW REGIONAL

DAY r
fe wiitiow uitio
LLION

CONSUMPTION 9 gy | GALLONS GALLONS

06x

2
ax MILLION
46 GALLONS
MILLION
02%
ox

*ESTIMATED ABSOLUTE REGIONAL CHANGE IN ANNUAL HIGHWAY FUEL CONSUMPTION FOR
PROTOTYPE URBAN REGION OF APPROXIMATELY 2,500,000 - 3,000,000 SMSA POPULATION
AND A BASE ANNUAL HIGHWAY FUEL CONSUMPTION OF 1,309 MILLION GALLONS (FULL 365
OAYS, INCLUDING WEEKENDS AND HOLIDAYS).


The short-range plan is referred to as the Transportation System Man-
agement Element (TSME). The TSME is intended to identify low-cost, short-
range transportation improvements, services, and programs which can be
implemented within a five-year period. Projects must be included in the
TSME in order to qualify for U.S. DOT funding. An important aspect is
that the planning program must be coordinated with air quality planning with-
in the urban area and must consider the air quality impacts of proposed
transportation actions. Similarly, the long-range element is to account for
the air quality effects of long-range transportation improvements.

The Clean Air Act, as amended August 1977 include the following major
provisions for reducing travel-related emissions and meeting air quality
standards in urban areas:

« States must prepare State Implementation Plans (SIP) by
January 1, 1979. The SIP are to contain transportation
plans for CO and oxidant nonattainment urban areas. The
plans are to achieve CO and oxidant standards as expeditiously
practicable, but no later than 1982 unless the implementation
of all reasonable measures will not attain the NAAQS.
Under such circumstance, an extension to 1987 may be granted.

- $75 million is authorized (to be appropriated) by the Act to
develop plans for nonattainment areas. This authorization
is to support transportation-related planning activities.

- Transportation planning guidelines are being issued by EPA
to promote agency interaction at all levels of government,
involvement of local elected officials, effective public parti-
cipation, and integration with the ongoing US DOT planning
processes. The guidelines provide for annual EPA review
and approval of the transportation planning process and
progress in meeting air quality standards.

- In the SIP, short-range and medium-range analyses of air
quality in nonattainment areas are to be conducted for 1982
and 1987, respectively. The analyses are to consider alter-
native transportation measures to improve air quality and
reduce transportation-related emissions.

ANALYSIS APPROACH

Exhibit 2 illustrates the overall analysis and evaluation process used in
the project. Each major phase of the process is summarized below.

L5


TABLE AS

{CONTINUATION 2)
"ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
ANO PROCEDURES BASIS OR SOURCE COMMENTS
(Continued)
VALUE ASSUMED FOR ANALYSIS
AUANTITY ui REGION LARGE Ai
Vanpool partici 0.008 0.005 {See notation to right). For X: calculated as product of:
pation rate; est- ““Markating Plan to Accelerate the
mated number of Use of Vanpools” (FEA, July 1978) | © fraction of exposed employees who
few vanpook states that most vangool participa: farm new permaneat vanpaots (X);
members per tion rates tand to cluster ia arva of and
regianal employes 6% of exposed employees. Low
a4, result of value of 0.03 chosan. ‘© fraction of total regionel employ-
program ment estimated to be exposed —

GC. ALLOCATION OF VMT REDUCTION

‘The regional reduction in non-circulatory weekday VMT is
allocated ta level af service (average speed), road type, and
vehicle type categories as follows:

(© The reduction is assumed to be taken entirely from the
“automobile” vehicle type category.

All non-circulatory VMT reductions ars assumed to be on
freeway and arterial roadways (local and collector roads
‘axcluded).

‘The VMT reduction is distributed between freeway and
tevel af service (average
to the basa VMT distri-
ution for the prototype region.

CIRCULATORY VMT INCREASE

The regional weekday change in circulstory (access and
passenger pick-up and drop-off) VMT associated with carpool/
vanpoo! programs is esumated as:

OVMT, = 2.NEMP [eFACcp “CPPR + CFACYp *verr]

where:

AVMT, = change in circulstory regional weekday VMT
associated with pragram

NEMP = regional employment

CPPR — = carpool participation rate } See section 1.8,

VPPR — = venpool parncipation rate | above

0.) on percent of emplayees
ir employers of 1,000 or
‘more at a site were used,

Madiam: 20% velue for Secre-
mento used.

Large 17% value for Chicago

Assumption

Assumption

Assumption

Formula developed for report
analysis,

working for employers of 1,000 or
more at a site (Y).

‘Value of vanpaol partici rate (X)

chosen at low end because:

* documented experiances rarely in
cluded strong competition from a
carpool program; and

motivation under favorable conditions.

Bus VMT (sarvica) is not likely to change
significantiy in response to program. A
‘suecessful program will minimize shifts
pools from transit,

Litt of fine haul portion of work trip is
likely ta take place on local roads.

‘Tha VMT changes likely to result would
‘net significantly change average speeds
‘an specific facilities,

(Continued)



Il, PERFORMANCE AND POTENTIAL OF RESERVED LANE,
CARPOOLING/VANPOOLING, AND TRANSIT SERVICE PROGRAMS

This section summarizes the travel and cost impacts of the following
programs of interest:

. freeway priority treatment for high occupancy vehicles;

- arterial priority treatment for high occupancy vehicles;

+ areawide carpool and vanpool programs; and

. transit fare reductions and service improvement programs.

The findings presented in this section are based on a comprehensive lit-
erature review of both operational and proposed programs of the above types.

Based on these findings, programs which have the potential for cost-
effectively reducing emissions and improving air quality were selected.

LITERATURE REVIEW FINDINGS--TSM STRATEGY
IMPACTS AND POTENTIAL

Tabular Summary of Findings

Exhibits 3 through 6 present the travel impacts and capital and operat-
ing costs for the four types of programs noted above. For each of the pro-
grams of interest, strategies of similar physical or operating characteris-
tics are grouped together to illustrate the variability in travel impacts and
costs, and to summarize the voluminous findings of the literature review at
a level of detail that facilitates selection of individual programs and com-
binations of programs for detailed analysis and evaluation in this project.

The format of Exhibits 3 through 6 varies to accommodate the differ-
ences in the descriptive characteristics and travel impacts most relevant
to each program.

In using the tables of Exhibits 3 through 6, the following should be kept
in mind:

II. 1


As mentioned above, CO concentration estimates were made using an
11 x 11 grid of receptor points covering the impact area. Exhibit 12 illus-
trates the spatial variation in CO concentrations around the prototype free-
way and arterial along cross-sectional profile lines at each end of the im-
pact area, again for scenario 2. Along both cross-sectional profiles, CO
concentrations peak just downwind from the freeway. Concentrations from
the affected facilities are substantially higher in this area than at any other
location along the profile line. Concentrations drop off to less than one-half
their maximum receptor value at a distance 0.1 mile further downwind.

As between the two cross-sectional profiles, maximum concentration is
slightly higher at the end where the freeway and arterial center lines are
separated by only one-quarter mile. However, the area of significant con-
centration levels is also significantly compressed. It should be emphasized
that these concentration estimates do not include background” CO concen-
trations from stationary sources and highway facilities not directly affected
by the scenario strategy, and do not reflect CO concentrations at distances
less than 50 feet from the edge of the roadway. The effects of these factors
on CO concentrations are illustrated later in this section.

The CO concentration at a grid receptor point 50 feet downwind from the
edge of the primary corridor facility under study is used as the basis for
comparing localized scenarios in subsequent exhibits.

Exhibit 13 is the first of three which compare the localized CO concen-
tration impacts of scenarios with similar prototype conditions. Exhibit 13
compares the four scenarios involving an eight-lane freeway as the primary
corridor facility. Because of travel impact complications resulting from
the projected breakdown of non-reserved lane flow on the freeway, CO con-
centration impact estimates could not be reliably estimated for scenario 4,
which was therefore excluded from this exhibit. However, the projected
travel impacts for scenario 4 could be expected to result in a general wors-
ening of localized air quality during the A.M. peak period.

For each of the four eight-lane freeway scenarios treated in Exhibit 13,
CO concentration results for both typical good and typical poor dispersion
conditions are presented, Each bar illustrates the "before" and "after" con-
centrations associated with the affected highway facilities, as well as the
implicit concentration change. For these four scenarios, the impact of the
implemented program or strategy is always a reduction in CO concentration
(as measured at the referenced grid receptor 50 feet from the edge of the
freeway.

Ur.15


TABLE A.4

(CONTINUATION 3)
ANALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS
ANO PROCEDURES BASIS OR SOURCE COMMENTS
(Continued)
SCENARIO TITLE A
BUS RIDERSHIP CARPOOLS

3. Ramp Metering and Sus 8y- 100% - Bus incressa: Set at somewhat Seanaria 7 should have a larger bus
Pass Lanes; Favorable Tower level then that achieved io ridership incraase because the bus travel
Impacts scenerio 7 (125%), time adventage should be greater for the

contrefion lane strategy than the ramp
nd bus by-pass strategy under
the pratarype condldons

4, Reserved Bus/Poo! Lane, 15% 50% — | Increnses ware determined judg- Although lower, these increases stil
Ramp Metering, and Bus By- mantally, to be lower then those of | raflect the relatively greater impact on
Pass Lanes: Modest Impacts seanario 5 (favorable impacts). ‘bus ridership then on carpooling

‘assumed in seanario §.

5, Reserved Bus/Pool Lane, 125% 95% | Bus increesa: Retative to scenario 2 | Given limiting factors on maximum bus
Ramp Metering, and Bus By- (100%), addition of remp metering ridership increases (commuters with odd
Pass Lanes; Favorable Impacts and bus by-pass should increase the | hours, insceewsibie to transit, needing s

thus time advantage end thus the bus

ridership inereesa,

Carpool increase: Chosan to he Smaller “sive results from no increase in

Sighdly smaller then scenario 2 ineantive for carpooling but increased

value (100%). compstitien from transit relative to
scenario 2.

6. Contrafiow Freeway Lane 50% - Bus increase: Experiences repormd | Experiences for which information was
Reserved for Buses; in Exhibit 3, A show ridership available could be expected to have much
Favorable impacts creases of 14-44%, Selection vot lower increases because:

largar value for pratatype case (50%)

made for reasons to right. © the bese transit levels in documented
demonstrations were already very
high.

© demonstrations were applied primarity

to reduce localized a.m. peak conges-
tion through use of underutilized off-
leak direction capacity.

7. Contraflow Bus Lane, 128% Bus increase: Chosen to be greater | Increase should be greater than in sceneno
Expanded Express Bus Ser- ‘than scenario 2 value (100%) and 2 because:
view, and Park-and-Ride also greater than the sum of the im-

Lots; Favorable Impacts

Contraflow Bus Lane, Ex- 128%
panded Servies, and Lots;

Assuming 70%/30% iree-

: Favorable

pacts in scenarios 1 and 6, the can-
stituents of seanario 7 (50% + 50% =
100%).

~ ‘Same as scenario 7.

rtraflow bus only lane should
grester time advantage to
bbut/poot tane,

‘+ in scenario 7, buses are not competing
against carpools for increases,

Incroass should be greater than sum of in-
creases for separate parts of combinstion
program sinca the travel time, access, and
sarvice area improvements should rain-
force the impacts of each other,

‘The only differenes between scenarios 7
and 8 are in the assumed off-peak direc:
tion vehicle volume on the freeway,

ip

.. 10

(Continued)



AMET 6

"TRANSIT FAI REDUCTIONS AND
‘SERVIC IIPROVEMENTS

ae Bee . Fe

rat


9'I

GENERALIZED ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION FRAMEWORK

EXHIBIT 2

PROGRAMS
‘OF INTEREST:

ANALYSIS, IN TERMS OF:
*RESERVED HOV LANE Oe aie an TRE IDENTIFY “PROMISING” * ACTIONS OR
SCARPOOL/VANPOOL hamp>| PROGRAMS FOR IMPROVING PROBRAM BEING
PROGRAMS AIR QUALITY IMPLEMENTED
“TRANSIT FARE AND *PROTOTYPE REGION
SERVICE IMPROVEMENTS OF HIGHWAY
CORRIDOR

DEFINE PROTOTYPE
SCENARIOS FOR

ESTIMATE IMPACTS OF
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
sTRAVEL
AIR QUALITY/ EMISSIONS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
sECONOMIC
Costs

EVALUATE COST
EFFECTIVENESS OF
SCEMARIOS



Economic Impacts

The economic impacts of the localized scenarios are likely to be small.
There is little evidence in the literature which suggests that any of the local-
ized transportation measures considered have any measurable effects on em-
ployment, retail sales, or related economic factors.

Economic benefits in the form of travel time and travel cost savings
are likely to be realized by travelers attracted to transit and ride-sharing
programs. For example, a 10 mile trip on a reserved freeway lane is es-
timated to yield a 6 to 8 minute reduction in travel time as compared with
the same trip made on the non-reserved freeway lanes, Similarly, signifi-
cant travel cost savings in the form of reduced gasoline, insurance, main-
tenance, and parking costs can be achieved by those travelers who diverted
from single occupant vehicles to either transit or carpools/vanpools

The combination of expanded bus service and reserved freeway or arte-
rial lanes will improve the accessibility to the CBD in the affected corridors.
This may induce non-work trips to the CBD even if the express bus service
is primarily intended for peak period travelers.

REGIONAL SCENARIO IMPACT ESTIMATES

In this section, the following impacts are presented and discussed for
each of the 10 regional scenarios:

travel impacts;

regional HC, NO , and CO emission impacts;
regional fuel consumption impacts;

capital and operating costs; and

economic impacts.

Travel Impacts

As for the localized scenarios, estimation of travel impacts is alsoa
critical first step in the analysis of the regional scenarios. For the regional
scenarios, travel impacts are expressed in terms of changes in regional
weekday vehicle miles travelled (VMT). For the purpose of estimating re-
gional emission and fuel consumption impacts, the VMT changes are allo-
cated to road type, vehicle type, and average speed groups.

IIL 26


APPENDIX B (Continued)

ITEM COST (in 1976 Dollars) SOURCE
Ramp Metering $27,200 per ramp for capital and installation P, Everall, Urban Freeway Surveillance and Control:
(based on traffic-response system cost range of The State of the Art. Prepared for FHWA. November
$15,000-30,000 in 1972 dollars) 1972. Page 143.

Annual operating and maintenance cost = $2,042 per
ramp (based on $1,500 per ramp in 1972 dollars)

oa



EXHIBIT A

SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED IMPACTS FOR THE LOCALIZED PROTOTYPE SCENARIOS

IMPACT ON A.M. PEAK IMPACT ON A.M. PEAK NOUR CO
PROTOTYPE SCENARIO HOUR CORRIDOR CONCENTRATIONS IN jaar? AT REFERENCE PROGRAM COSTS IN
VENICLE VOLUME* RECEPTOR, FROM AFFECTED FACILITY EMISSIONS** | 1976 DOLLARS (x1,000)
TVPICAL, GOOD TYPICAL, POOR CAPITAL
BASE PEAK DISPERS (ONE-TIME,
10 HOUR PEACENT Hon pisrensiont OMPLEMENTA: | penaTiNG!®
No. BRIEF TITLE vowume | cHance |sasevatue| cxance | ease vatuc| cHance | rion)! | (PER YEAR)
1 [Expanded Express Bus Service in Mixed
Fesevay Teall; Favorable impacts | 10,667 =| -1.47% 6,786 139 ano =203faysavazaa') ) 107
2 | Feetwey Lane Reserved for Busst and ~T : a .
Carpoots; Favorabie hmpacts 19667 | ~6.30% 5,158 —54 ana -762 {3720/6350 1430
; i - ==
19667 | 3.06% 5,156 8224/6844 1,703
4 M °
and Bus By-Pass Lanes; Modest
Ampacts 19,667 -397mt* wae a210 wa® | 4.862/6,482 17581
Reserved Sus/Poo! Lane, Ramp Mater-
ing and Bus By-Pass Lanes; Favorable
Impacts 19,567 640% 5,756 603 ano -02 | 6zanace 2286
6 | Contafiow Fremmay Lane Reserved
for Buses; Favorable Impacts 14760 | -1.69% 4798 1226 6750 20 962 cr)
7 | Contatiow Bus Lane, Expanded Ex-
press Bus Service, and Parkand Ride
Lou; Faverable fmpacts 14780 | -3.22% 4798 +100 6.158 10a] 3,605,288, pon
8 | Conteaftow Bus Lane, Expanded Ex-
press Bus Service, and Lots; Assur
7O%/30K Directional Spit;
fe Impacts 1aso0 | 4.07% 4.066 ~M6 5,408 —11 | 3,660/6,208 181
0 | Reserved Arterial Median Lane for
Express Buses; Favorable Impacts 3760 | 15.47% 4964 -m 6485 —998 [3596/4136 1,130
10 | Contrattow Curb Lane for Local
Buses on Paie af Que Way Arterias;
Favorable finpacts. [Inbound 9921 Ea |e] 3)
Arterit/Outhound Arterial] soo | -4.40% 7349 7365, 93 7474 468 123

*0n all highway lacilites expliciy included in the analysis of the prototype costidur {see diagrams in Exhibit _8_);in both directions.
Volume is tor freeway and/or arterial segments approximately 1 onile out froin the CBD (adjacent to the CBD in the case of Scenario 10).
**CO concentration 50 fest fom downwind edys of primery corridor lacilty, based on vehicular emissions from affected facilities onty;
uninterrupted tratfle flow conditions are also assumed, Maximum 8 hour average CO concentrations may be approximated using the procadure in Exhibit 14,
4 See Exhibit 11 tor a tabular descriptiva of these meteorolagical cundit
{*This value includes the vebicles originally using the cowvidor tremway, but estimated as being unable
because of flow breahJown caused by congestion.
CO Concentsativa impacts for Scenario 4 could wot be celiably estimated. See Exhibit 10_ and text for further explanation.
{2 Represents erating costs
Lb The two capital cost entsles represent the range in costs depending upon whether existing
acilnies (up., shopping center) or newty constructed facilities aru required for park-and-ts

‘pass through during peal hour



TABLE A4

{CONTINUATION 1)
AMA MD PROCEDURES BASIS OR SQUACE COMMENTS
(Continued)
‘catagories, shifts from 1, 2, and Primarily, travel impact assumption | This assumption is basically consistent

‘3+ occupant autos are allo

roportion to the
‘base number of persons in /.

catag

‘Far shifts from freeway auto to transit, nane of the shift
is assumed to come from 3+ occupant autos (carpools)
whee the strategy/program includes priority treatment for
carpools also.

Decreases in local bus ridership are assumed to result in

decrassad average local bus occupancy rather than any
decreases in a.m. peak buses.

C. SOURCE OF FREEWAY CARPOOL INCREASES

Mone af any incrvese in freeway carpaols during a.m. peak
‘assumed to be associated with praviqusly unmade
luced travel),

trips {it

The sources of any increase in freeway carpaols are assumed
to be shifts from other mades ax follows:

Souree of increase Percent af Person Trips
Artarial carpool 10%
Arterial auto (1, 2 o¢e.)* 18%
Freeway auto (1, 2 o¢e,)* 1%

“Within the automobile categories, shifts from 1, 2, and 3+
occupant autos are allocated in propartion to the base
number of parsons in each catagory.

Q. SOURCE OF EXPRESS BUS RIDERSHIP INCREASES ON
ARTERIAL WITH RESERVED MEDIAN LANE

‘original local bus ridership on artarial, zsume 15%
affective use of
and shift to express bus,

‘Since there is an expansion of bus service for ail strategy/
programs associated with this prototype, assume 10% of
ridership incraase is previously unmade trips.

Of the remaining bus ridershig increase, all of it comes fram
arcarial autos, 2, and 3+ occupant cate-
gories in propartion to the base number of persons asso-
ciated with each.

‘The sumbar of new buses introduced for the

peak hour
ian lane
express bus service is sat at that which will yield a very
comfortable everage bus accupancy of 35.

‘Assumption

Travel impact assumptic

Assumption

For percent from arterial carpool,
‘travel impact assumption,

The pereants from arverial and free
way autos, respectively, are based
‘on the same -35W values used in 1.8
of this table, but normaliz
to 90% instaad of 80%.

‘Same assumption usad for shifts to
transit in 1.8,

Assumption.

Same assumption used in 1.8 of this,
table for freeway protetypes.

‘Same assumotion used in
‘table for freeway prototypes.

af this

Definition af protatype strategy/
program.

with limited available information from
‘the Kalanianoate Highway, Blue Streak,

1d 195 experiences on auto driver/
passenger or 1 occupent/2+ occupant
‘splits.

Not unresconable, given normal prec-
tice for small ridership declines,

This value (10%) is one-half of the
arterial transit-to-freeway shift value
(20%) used above. This is consistent
with the fact that the arterial per-
centage share (out of the corridar total)
for transit is twice the percentage share
for carpoois in the prototype travel
conditions aesumed.

Low occupancy value selected to reflect
1 fairly high level of sorviea, designed
to encourage ridership.



EXHIBIT 7

LOCALIZED SCENARIOS SELECTED FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS

PROTOTYPE SCENARIO

Opersting in Mixed Freeway Traffic During
Peak Periods

‘© Three 500 Space Park-oné-Ride Lots in,
Corridor

WLUSTRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS ON
10 DIAGRAM? STRATEGY OR PROGRAM IMPLEMENTED CHANGES IN MODAL USAGE**
ino. TITLE
1 | Expended Expres Bus A © 10 Mile, 8 Lene Freewey, Ne Reserved (Mederataly Favorable Impacts}
‘Servies in Mixed Lanes: me
Freeway Traffic;
Feverable tmpacts © Expanded, Reduced Fare Express Sus Service, © S0% Incresse in Freeway Express
Sus Ridership

‘Ne increase in Freweny Carposts

2 | Freeway Lone Reserved
for Buses ead Carpocts;
Feveruble Impact

a © 10. Mile, B Lane Freeway, With-Flow Lane
Reserved for Buses and Carpoots (3+
(Occupents)

© Expanded Express Sus Service During
Penk Periods

© Three 508 Spece Park-and-Ride Lets in
Corridor

(Moderately Fevorabte impacts)
100% Inereese in Froewery Express
‘Bus Ridership

100% Increase in Freewmy Carpoots

© With-Flow Lane Reserved for Buses and
Carpoots (3+ Occupants)

© Expanded Express Bus Service During
Peak Periods

© Three 500 Space Park-end-Ride Lots in

‘2 | Ramp Metering ond Bus 8 © 15 Mile, 8 Lane Freeway; Maturing of Al (Moderately Fevoreble impacts)
By-Pem Lanes: ‘Onfempe
Faverable impacts © 100% Increase in Freeway Express
© Bus By-Pass Lanes at 4 Ramps Bus Ridership
© Expanded Express Sus Service During © No Increase in Freeway Carpoeis
Peak Periods
© Three 508 Space Park-end-Ride Lots in
Corridor
4 | Reserved Bus/Poo! 8 © 15 Mile, 8 Lane Freeway; Metering of All (Modest Impacts)
Ramp On-Remps
aed Gus By-Pass Lanes; (© 75% Increase in Freeway Express Bus
Medext Impacts © Bus By-Pass Lanes at 4 Ramps Ridership

‘50% Increase in Freeway Corpacts

© Existing Freeway Expres Bus Service

Expanded Oniy to Meet Increased Oemend

Corrider
5 | Reserved Bax/Poed 8 © Same us Scomarie 4 (Mederatsly Fevorsble impects)
Lone, Ramp Meveriog,
and Bes By-Pass Lones; © 125% tocrease in Freeway Expres
Feverable Impacts Bus Ridership
© 95% Incresse in Freewey Carposis
‘ Freemey c © 10 Mile, 6 Lone Frosway; Off-Peak, (Moderweaty Feversble (mpects)
Lane Reserved for Oivection Coatraftow Lene Reserved fer
Seca; Fevorsble Express Buses ‘© SU% Increase in Freeway Expres
Impect, Bus Ridership

No Incrassa in Freeway Carpooh

SEE EXHIBIT 8 FOR ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAMS OF THE PROTOTYPE HIGHWAY FACILITIES
“SEE APPENDIX A FOR FURTHER DETAIL 0% METHODOLOGY AND TECHNICAL ASSUMPTIONS

I. 3

(Continued)



TABLE AS

(CONTINUATION 3)

AMALYTICAL ASSUMPTIONS:
AND PROCEDURES

BASIS OR SOURCE

COMMENTS

CEAC cp = ina circultory fuctor representing the
additional scces, pick-up, anaes aropott
MT per occu) associated with
tarmition oT new carpool

ansloqous te CFAC gp, for new vanpeots

‘Tha value of CFACCP was estimated on the basis of survey
data on the number of additional blocks driven by cerpools
te pick up and drop off members, average carpool occupancy,
‘and the following assumptions:

CFACyp =

© Thlock = 1/10 mite

© survey responses citing 8 pick-up distance of 0 blocks
should be ignored as pertaining to “household” carpools,
‘ualikaly to be affected by pool matching programs.

tn the absence of bettar svailable data, the value af CFACYp
is exsumed to be equal to that of CFACCP:

Medium Size Region Large Region

CFACep = CFAC yp: 0.38 mile 0.22 mite
‘The overall VT increase was distributed, by the appropriste
vehicle type (carpool or vanpoo!), ta the following three
Circulatory road type/average speed catagories usad to esti-
‘mata emissions and fuel consumption impacts:

Percent of Total VMT.
2 Road Type Average Sosed Medium Region Large Region
1 Local 15 mph 42% 68%
2 Arteries 25 mph 28% 18%
2 Arterial 15. mph 32% 18%

(Continued)

Survey data from PMM&Co. Carpool.

ing Impsct Study on length in Blocks
‘Hadditanal cou pickup end

drop-off travel.

Based on above survey data and
following assumptions:

© All residential end travel of 5
block ar less on local roads, 16
‘mph assumed average speed,

‘¢ Residerrial and travel in excess
of § blocks it % on local roads
and % on artarial roads of 25
mph average speed.

All employment and travel on
more congested 15 mph
arterials.

‘Sacramento survey results were used for
the medium sized prototype region.

Chicago survey results were usad fer the
large prototype region.

ll, GENERAL, FOR SCENARIOS INVOLVING MULTIPLE

ON OF FREEWAY CO
A_ OVERALL APPROACH

‘As with the VMT changes associated with carpool/vanpoa!
programms, the VMT changes resulting from freewey corridor
‘strategies have bath non-circulstory and circulatory
components,

&._NON-CIRCULATORY VMT CHANGES

‘The reduction in regional weekday nor-circulstory VMT is cal-
culated by lying the parcantage shifts used far vehici
volume in the corresponding localized scenario instaad to the
appropriste mattectd” VME categories, VMT reductions occur
eenuse of he highar average occupancies of the vahicie types
experiencing VMT increesas (st the expense of grester VMT
decreases for the low accupsncy modes).

Travel Impact Assumption.

Circuletary VMT increases include addi-
tional travel associated with access to
‘express bus collection points for these
stratagies resulting in express bus rider-
ship increases,

A.15

(Continued)


EXHIBIT 8 (Cont'd)
ILLUSTRATIVE DIAGRAMS OF AFFECTED PROTOTYPE HIGHWAY FACILITIES

OD. 5 LANE ARTERIAL WITH REVERSIBLE MEDIAN

10 Miles
——\ 1 Mile-—__>
wenn eae 4
No Parking r <— 1 Mile
SLANE {sae fs
ARTERIAL __-_— i
WITH REVERSIBLE REVERSIBLE MEDIAN LANE i (A.M. PEAK) so
MEDIAN fo i
PANE TTT TT rm nnn nnn mn ea p7TmmrasT ce r
i 1
No Parking H Hl
t '
‘ ‘
L----- +--+ 4
Diagram Not To Scale \ Concentration
Impact Area (1 Mile Square)

£. PAIR OF 4 LANE ONE-WAY ARTERIALS

4 LANE,
ONE-WAY ~--~-—+-—
ARTERIAL __-___|

4 LANE,
ONE-WAY
ARTERIAL

Li~~-+---— -— ----—- + ~~ EE

\ CO Concentration

impact area (1 mile square)

Il. 6