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Explanations for 

the Decline in Child 

Sexual Abuse Cases

David Finkelhor and Lisa M. Jones

The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP) is committed to

improving the justice system’s response to crimes against children. OJJDP recognizes

that children are at increased risk for crime victimization. Not only are children the victims of many of the same crimes that victimize adults, they are subject to other crimes,

like child abuse and neglect, that are specific to childhood. The impact of these crimes

on young victims can be devastating, and the violent or sexual victimization of children

can often lead to an intergenerational cycle of violence and abuse. The purpose of

OJJDP’s Crimes Against Children Series is to improve and expand the nation’s efforts

to better serve child victims by presenting the latest information about child victimization,

including analyses of crime victimization statistics, studies of child victims and their special needs, and descriptions of programs and approaches that address these needs. 

A Message From OJJDP

The decline in sexual abuse cases,

as reported by child protective service agencies, could be an encouraging development if future analysis

and research establish its significance. The uncertainty about the

meaning of this trend, however,

underscores how much remains to

be accomplished in terms of drawing

lessons from past experience to determine future policy. Clearly, a trend of

this magnitude merits further inquiry

and analysis.

For example, it would be useful to

know whether policies of more aggressive prosecution, incarceration,

and treatment have played a role.

If so, what will be the impact when

many of the large group of sexual

abuse offenders placed in custody

in recent years are released from

their sentences? From another perspective, have efforts to educate

children and to identify and treat juvenile sex offenders had the effect

of reducing the number of victims

and perpetrators? 

This Bulletin reviews six plausible

explanations for the decline in sexual abuse cases in light of available

data. While acknowledging the likelihood that multiple factors are involved, the authors find evidence

of a significant decline in child sexual abuse.

Federal, state, and local agencies

should collaborate on a research

agenda that will cast light on the

meaning of this trend.

The number of sexual abuse cases substantiated by child protective service

(CPS) agencies dropped a remarkable 40

percent between 1992 and 2000, from an

estimated 150,000 cases to 89,500 cases,

but professional opinion is divided about

why (Jones and Finkelhor, 2001; Jones,

Finkelhor, and Kopiec, 2001). It is possible

that the incidence of sexual abuse has

declined as a result of two decades of

prevention, treatment, and aggressive

criminal justice activity. It is also possible

that there has been no real decline, and

that the apparent decline is explained by

a drop in the number of cases being identified and reported or by changes in practices of child protection agencies.

Identifying the source or sources of the

decline in the number of substantiated

sexual abuse cases is important. The

possibility that a real decline occurred is

heartening and could point the way to

more effective strategies for preventing

all kinds of child maltreatment. On the

other hand, if the decline is due solely

to decreased reporting or changes in CPS

procedures, it could mean that more children are failing to get the help and services they need.

This Bulletin explores the strengths and

weaknesses of six possible explanations

for the decline by using data from a number of different sources (see page 3):

aggregate data from the National Child

J. Robert Flores, Administrator January 2004

U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention 
2

Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS);

detailed child protective service data from

Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania; and self-report data from the National

Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) and

from schoolchildren in Minnesota. It provides substantially more evidence about

the decline than was available in a previous Bulletin on the same topic, The Decline in Child Sexual Abuse Cases (Jones

and Finkelhor, 2001).

Key Findings

◆ Detailed data provided by four state

CPS agencies offered little evidence

that the decline was due either to more

conservative judgment by CPS about

the types of sexual abuse cases they

would investigate or substantiate or

to increasing reluctance by CPS to

become involved in cases in which the

perpetrator is not a primary caregiver.

◆ There also was no strong evidence that

the decline was largely due to a diminishing reservoir of older, ongoing cases

available for new disclosures.

◆ There was some evidence that the sexual abuse decline in one state could be

partly explained by changes in CPS procedures and data collection methods.

According to national data, however,

this explanation does not successfully

account for the declines seen in the

majority of states.

◆ There was mixed evidence that reporting of sexual abuse to CPS declined

because of a “backlash,” that is, a

greater public and professional skepticism about reports of sexual abuse.

◆ Evidence from a number of different

sources, including NCVS data showing a

56-percent decline in self-reported sexual assault against juveniles, is consistent with a real decline in sexual abuse.

◆ Finally, additional studies and improved

data are needed to make crucially important decisions for public policy

based on the factors that are most

responsible for the decline.

Evidence for the

Decline

Yearly estimates of substantiated sexual

abuse from 1992 to 2000 were calculated

from CPS administrative data collected by

NCANDS. The number of states that submitted data to this system each year varied from 43 to 49, making published totals

difficult to compare across years. To arrive

at more comparable numbers, sexual

abuse totals were extrapolated to account

for the population of all 50 states and the

District of Columbia as estimated annually

by the U.S. Census. These extrapolated

totals show that the number of substantiated sexual abuse cases reached a peak

of approximately 149,800 in 1992, followed

by declines of 2 to 11 percent each year

through 2000, the last year for which data

are available (see figure 1). In 2000, estimated cases of sexual abuse reached a low

of approximately 89,355, for a total decline

of 40 percent in identified sexual abuse

cases over the 8-year period. The trend is

not universal, but it has occurred in the

majority of states. Of 49 states, 39 experienced a total decline of 30 percent or more

in substantiated cases of sexual abuse

from their peak year to 2000, and 19 of

these states saw declines of more than 50

percent in their sexual abuse caseloads.

The decline in sexual abuse does not appear to be just an extension of a general

declining trend in overall child maltreatment or of some other demographic factor. According to estimates based on the

NCANDS data, the decline in sexual abuse

appears to account for a large part of the

15-percent decline in child maltreatment.

Neglect cases have fluctuated during the

1990s with no overall decline while physical abuse has declined 30 percent since

a peak in 1995. The decline in physical

abuse is significant, but it is smaller and

more recent than the decline in sexual

abuse. In fact, the largest proportion of the

decline in physical abuse (15 percent) occurred between 1998 and 1999, whereas the

more gradual 40-percent decline for sexual

abuse occurred over an 8-year period.

Explanations for the

Decline

As part of their earlier research on this

topic, the authors conducted a survey of

state child protection administrators to

gather hypotheses and evidence about the

decline in sexual abuse (Jones, Finkelhor,

and Kopiec, 2001). Although the administrators expressed many ideas about the

decline, six explanations were offered frequently and backed by some anecdotal

support:

◆ Increasing conservatism within CPS.

In this view, sexual abuse cases were

declining in state caseloads because

CPS was adopting more conservative

standards regarding “questionable”

cases (e.g., allegations arising in divorces and custody disputes) or

cases with weak initial evidence.

◆ Exclusion of cases that do not involve

caretakers. In this view, CPS was increasingly excluding from its jurisdiction sexual abuse cases in which the

perpetrator was not a primary caregiver.

◆ Changes in CPS data collection methods or definitions. In this view, the

decline was due to changes in the way

CPS tabulated or counted its cases,

such as changing from a three-tiered

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Year

Number of Cases

40% decline

Figure 1: Estimated Number of Substantiated Cases of Sexual Abuse

in the United States, 1990–2000

Source: Authors’ analyses of data from 1990–2000 National Child Abuse and Neglect Data

System (NCANDS) reports (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1992–2002).
3

Data Sources on Sexual Abuse Trends

National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS). NCANDS, organized by the U.S. Department of Health and

Human Services’ Children’s Bureau, collects information from state child welfare agencies on a number of variables related to

child maltreatment. Data collection through this system began in 1990. Although a growing number of states submit case-level

data to NCANDS, aggregate data from the Summary Data Component (SDC) were used to calculate national sexual abuse

trends from 1990 through 2000. The SDC provides annual estimates of child maltreatment cases substantiated by child protective services. These data have many limitations, including the fact that states vary considerably in how they define maltreatment

and how they investigate and count cases.

State Child Protective Service Data. To examine sexual abuse trends in more detail, the authors also examined state CPS

data from Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. These states showed large declines in substantiated sexual abuse and

were among the few states for which consistent and extensive case-level CPS data were available from the early 1990s through

1999. The data provided by these states allowed an examination of trends in sexual abuse investigations by the age of the

victim, the type of abuse, the perpetrator’s relationship to the victim, the age of the perpetrator, and the investigation outcome,

among other factors.

National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). NCVS is conducted annually by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau

of the Census on behalf of the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics. Approximately 55,000 U.S. households

with a total of 100,000 individuals ages 12 and older are surveyed each year. The survey collects information about the characteristics of victimizations, including victim and perpetrator demographics, the incident location, and a description of the incident.

Minnesota Student Survey. The Minnesota Student Survey is a voluntary, anonymous, self-administered questionnaire that

asks students about a range of experiences including substance use, sexual behavior, and school climate. Two survey questions ask about sexual abuse victimization. The survey has been administered to 6th, 9th, and 12th grade students in Minnesota five times: in 1989, 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2001. Approximately 90–99 percent of Minnesota’s school districts have participated in the survey each year, involving more than 100,000 students. For trend analyses, data are limited to the approximately 69

percent of Minnesota’s school districts that participated in the survey in all 5 years. A weighting procedure was used to adjust

for differences in student participation rates across districts.1

1 For more information about the Minnesota Student Survey’s methodology, see Harrison, Fulkerson, and Beebe (1997), or Minnesota Department of Children, 

Families & Learning (2001).

Explanations and the

Evidence

The following sections review evidence

that might be marshaled to support each

of the six possible explanations for the

reduction in sexual abuse cases. Evidence

was drawn from a variety of sources but

especially from the four states with extensive CPS data.

Increasing Conservatism

Within CPS

One very plausible explanation of the

decline in substantiated sexual abuse

cases is that child protection agencies

have become more conservative regarding

the cases they investigate or substantiate.

This may reflect a better knowledge base,

a reaction to criticism about overzealous

investigations, caution in anticipation of

legal retaliation, an effort to triage cases

brought about by limited resources, or a

concern about unnecessarily stigmatizing

people by subjecting them to investigations based on questionable information.

An obvious place to look for increasing

skepticism about questionable cases

would be in the substantiation rate. That

is, if CPS workers were applying more

conservative standards and confirming

less sexual abuse, there might be a greater

drop in substantiated than in reported

or investigated cases.

However, there is not much evidence for

such a pattern. For example, in Illinois,

substantiations and investigations declined in tandem (see figure 2). Similar

patterns were identified in Minnesota and

Pennsylvania. Nationwide, evidence provided by the 50-state survey shows that

the substantiation rate for all types of

maltreatment remained constant at 33

percent from 1994 through 1999 (Peddle

and Wang, 2001).

If increasing conservatism among CPS

staff explained the decline, then a greater

number of conservative judgments would

also be expected in certain kinds of potentially questionable cases. In recent years,

skeptics concerned about unnecessary

investigations have particularly targeted

certain allegations, such as those arising

in divorce and custody disputes; those

involving very young children, whose

testimony is often deemed unreliable;

and those involving less intrusive forms

classification system (substantiated/

indicated/unsubstantiated) to a 

two-tiered system (substantiated/

unsubstantiated).

◆ Less reporting to CPS due to a sexual

abuse backlash. In this view, negative

publicity about sexual abuse cases and

the potential liability of professionals

who report suspected abuse made the

public and professionals more reluctant to report sexual abuse.

◆ A diminishing reservoir of older

cases. In this view, there had been a

reduction in the supply of older but

previously undisclosed cases available

for new disclosures but no true decline

in new cases.

◆ A real decline in the incidence of

sexual abuse. In this view, there was

a reduction in the number of children

actually being abused as a result of

increased prevention efforts, more

prosecution and incarceration of

offenders, or other social or cultural

changes.1

1 Specific mechanisms for a real decline will be

explored in subsequent research. 
4

of sexual contact. If increasing conservatism about questionable cases were an

important factor in the decline of sexual

abuse, it would be reasonable to predict

a differentially greater decline in these

types of cases. At the same time, a less

pronounced decline might be seen in

cases involving more credible evidence,

such as medical evidence or a perpetrator

confession, and more serious kinds of

contact, such as penetration.

Trend data for cases involving questionable allegations are presented in figures

3–6. Unfortunately, case reports in the

available states do not indicate whether

they were preceded by a custody dispute.

In Pennsylvania, however, case reports do

indicate the family structure of the child’s

household. Cases in which a custody

dispute precedes a sexual abuse allegation are less common in families where

two biological parents are present at the

time of the allegation. (Sometimes a custody dispute follows the allegation of sexual abuse in an intact family, but in these

cases, CPS would be less likely to assume

that the sexual abuse allegation was an

attempt to manipulate an already existing

custody conflict.) Sexual abuse allegations

arising in previously existing custody disputes would be expected more often when

children reside in single-parent or stepparent households than when they reside

in households with two biological parents.

A greater decline could be expected in

such cases if CPS became increasingly

skeptical about them. Trends in Pennsylvania do not follow that pattern. In fact,

figure 3 shows that the largest declines in

Pennsylvania have occurred in allegations

coming from families with two biological

or adoptive parents, instead of families

with single parents or stepparents.

Trend data are somewhat more supportive of the hypothesis that increasing conservatism among CPS staff is affecting the

decline in substantiated cases of sexual

abuse for cases involving younger children. In Illinois, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania, the decline was most pronounced

for cases involving children younger

than 6. For example, figure 4 shows a 57-

percent decline in Illinois cases with child

victims ages 0–2, compared with an average 26-percent decline across other age

groups. However, the decline has not been

limited to cases with victims ages 0–2;

it has occurred across all age groups, with

a higher rate of decline for cases involving

very young victims. Because the very

young make up a small portion of all victims of sexual abuse, even fairly big declines for this age group are not enough

to account fully for the overall decline in

sexual abuse cases.

Where there is other information from

states on the quality or seriousness of the

allegation or evidence, it generally does

not support the hypothesis that there

were especially dramatic declines in

questionable cases. Case records in

Pennsylvania record the presence of medical evidence or perpetrators’ confessions.

As shown in figure 5, the decline in Pennsylvania cases with such strong evidence

has been as great, if not greater, than the

decline in weaker cases. Illinois records

the presence of sexually transmitted

diseases (STDs) and allegations of penetration. Here again, the declines are substantial in cases in both categories, and

they are lowest in the category of exploitation alone, which might contain

some of the least serious cases and those

with the weakest evidence (see figure 6).

The finding that the decline in sexual

abuse cases with stronger evidence was

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Number of Cases

Year

Investigated Substantiated

38% decline

43% decline

Figure 2: Illinois Trends in Sexual Abuse Investigation and

Substantiation, 1990–99

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished data provided by the Illinois Department of 

Child and Family Services.

Parent and Other

parent subtitute

Two biological 

or adoptive 

parents

One biological or 

adoptive parent 

and one stepparent

Percent Decline

Single 

parent

39%

22%

12%

1990–92 Average 1997–99 Average

Number of Cases

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

22%

31%

Figure 3: Pennsylvania Trends in Sexual Abuse Cases, by Living

Situation of Victim at Time of Report

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished data provided by the Pennsylvania Office of 

Children, Youth, and Families.
5

comparable to that of cases without such

evidence is far from fatal to the “increasing conservatism” argument. For example,

large declines in STDs may be due to the

decline in STDs in the general population

(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2000). Standards of medical evidence

may also have become more conservative

(Carole Jenny, Brown University, personal

communication, May 14, 1997), and perpetrators may be newly emboldened by

defense attorneys not to confess. But the

data do not give strong or consistent evidence that the exclusion of questionable

cases—those that involve controversial

allegations or weaker evidence—is a major

factor in the decline in sexual abuse cases.

Exclusion of Cases That

Do Not Involve Caretakers

According to child protection officials,

in recent years, some states have dealt

with burgeoning caseloads and declining

resources by narrowing the scope of child

welfare responsibilities (Jones, Finkelhor,

and Kopiec, 2001). Because the traditional

and statutory responsibilities of child protection have concerned threats to children’s well-being at the hands of caretakers, some state agencies have increasingly

excluded cases that involve allegations

of abuse by noncaretakers, including nonrelatives, distant relatives, and juvenile

offenders. Compared with other kinds of

maltreatment, sexual abuse cases have

typically involved more allegations of offenses by noncaretakers. If a rise of such

exclusionary policies were responsible

for the decline in substantiated cases of

sexual abuse, greater declines could be

expected in cases involving perpetrators

who are not caretakers.

The available data from the states examined for this Bulletin show some evidence

of a differential decline for cases that involve noncaretakers and juvenile perpetrators, but this evidence was not strong.

There may have been some differential

decline in cases involving young perpetrators. Trend data for Pennsylvania showed

a larger decline in cases with perpetrators ages 12–17 than in cases with older

perpetrators (see figure 7). However, the

number of teen perpetrators was already

small, and the larger percentage of decline

did not account for much of the overall

decline. There was no evidence for the

exclusion of cases with noncaretaker

perpetrators in the three states where

these data were available. For example, in

Illinois, the decline was most dramatic for

cases involving parental perpetrators, the

exact opposite of what the explanation

would have predicted (see figure 8).

The same data are relevant to another,

related explanation for the decline in sexual abuse cases: namely, that the decline

is due to an increase in CPS labeling of

sexual abuse cases as neglect or “failure

to protect” on the part of the nonperpetrating caretaker. That practice may have

developed as CPS agencies more carefully

defined their role as ensuring the protection of the child in the home. However,

here again, a larger decline would be 

expected in cases involving nonfamily or

more distant perpetrators because a

classification of neglect would apply

primarily in such cases. CPS workers are

not likely to label a case of sexual abuse

by a father or stepfather simply as neglect

on the part of the mother. The more dramatic decline in parental perpetrators

seems to weigh against both the “failure

to protect” and the noncaretaker exclusion explanation in the states that were

examined.

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

15 or older 12–14 3–5 0–2

Percent Decline

9–11 6–8

1990–92 Average 1997–99 Average

Number of Cases

31%

33%

29%

37%

57%

21%

Figure 4: Illinois Trends in Sexual Abuse Cases, by Age of Victim

at Time of Report

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished data provided by the Illinois Department of 

Child and Family Services.

Medical 

evidence

Perpetrator

admission

Percent Decline

Evidence from 

CPS investigation

1990–92 Average 1997–99 Average

Number of Cases

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

37%

58%

37%

Figure 5: Pennsylvania Trends in Indicated Cases of Sexual Abuse,

by Type of Evidence

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished data provided by the Pennsylvania Office of 

Children, Youth, and Families.
6

Changes in CPS Data

Collection Methods or

Definitions

During the 1990s, a number of state child

protection agencies changed the way they

define and categorize child maltreatment

and how they collect and enter information about the cases that they investigate.

In a survey conducted by the authors,

many child protection officials felt that

these changes were artificially creating

what appeared to be a declining trend

(Jones, Finkelhor, and Kopiec, 2001). For

example, some officials reported that their

state had moved from a three-tiered classification system (substantiated/indicated/

unsubstantiated) to a two-tiered system

(substantiated/unsubstantiated). Others

described changes such as the establishment of central registries and the implementation of more detailed data collection

systems as possible causes for the decline. These changes might, in principle,

be disruptive to data collection, resulting

in artificial declines.

If such changes were behind the decline,

state trends could be expected to show a

significant decline occurring over a short

period of time paralleling the implementation of these changes. An examination

of state trends using NCANDS data (see

the sidebar on page 3) identified 15 states

in which a very large decline (more than

33 percent) in sexual abuse cases occurred

in 1 year. When state officials from these

“discontinuous decline” states were asked

about these trends, more than half were

able to explain a change in procedure

that could account for the trend. An example of this effect was evident in the CPS

data from Oregon, which experienced a 

60-percent decline in substantiated cases

(see figure 9), but much of the decline occurred between 1993 and 1994. Discussions with Oregon state officials indicated

that prior to 1994, a determination about

whether abuse occurred was made with

every report, making reports indistinguishable in the database from face-to-face

investigations. This policy was changed

in 1994, and the result was a drop in the

number of cases that were labeled as

investigated and substantiated.

Such changes in data collection procedures or definitions are unlikely, however,

to account for the large and gradual declines in child sexual abuse cases that

occurred in the majority of states. Furthermore, if changes in definition and data

collection procedures were occurring,

state trends would be expected to show

both increases and decreases in the data.

Changes in definition or data collection do

not acceptably explain the size and consistency of the national decline.

Less Reporting to CPS Due

to a Sexual Abuse Backlash

Another frequently voiced explanation of

the decline in child sexual abuse is that

professionals who would report abuse

have been intimidated by a “sexual abuse

backlash” resulting from negative publicity

in the media about false allegations, overzealous reporting, and lawsuits seeking

damages against those who make reports.

Starting in the mid-1980s, highly publicized

cases in Jordan, MN, Wenatchee, WA, and

Manhattan Beach, CA, raised questions

about whether authorities were unfairly

targeting innocent citizens. New organizations, advocates, and legal experts came

Sexually transmitted

diseases

Penetration

Percent Decline

Molestation

1990–92 Average 1997–99 Average

46%

32%

21%

Exploitation

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

Number of Cases

37%

Figure 6: Illinois Trends in Sexual Abuse Cases, by Type of

Evidence/Allegation

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished data provided by the Illinois Department of 

Child and Family Services.

35 and older 25–34

Percent Decline

18–24 12–17

1990–92 Average 1997–99 Average

Number of Cases

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

22%

32%

33%

40%

Figure 7: Pennsylvania Trends in Sexual Abuse Cases, by Age 

of Perpetrator

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished data provided by the Pennsylvania Office of Children,

Youth, and Families.
7

together to criticize the criminal justice

and child welfare systems’ handling of sexual abuse cases (Hechler, 1988). Sources

have documented a more negative and

critical tone in media coverage of sexual

abuse and CPS, which may have dissuaded both laypersons and professionals

mandated to report abuse from reporting

(Myers, 1994).

A backlash or some other intimidation factor might be expected to affect reports of

child sexual abuse in two ways: more reports might be made anonymously, allowing reporters to seek protection for a child

while insulating themselves from criticism

or legal action, and the decline in reports

might be greatest among those most susceptible to retaliation, legal action, or

economic boycott. Physicians in private

practice are an example of the latter

group. Reporting child abuse has always

posed a burden and a risk for physicians

because it potentially alienates patients.

As independent practitioners, they may

also feel particularly vulnerable to damage claims.

The state data that were examined for this

Bulletin did not, in any instance, include

evidence of a rise in anonymous reporting.

In Illinois, however, anonymous reports

declined less than the average rate, which

could reflect some shift in preference 

toward anonymous reporting, but within

the overall context of a decline in reports

from virtually all sources (see figure 10).

This pattern is not shared by Pennsylvania, where anonymous reports declined

more, not less, than the average rate.

The pattern of reporting by physicians in

private practice is also mixed. In Illinois,

reports emanating from such physicians

declined much more dramatically than

average (see figure 11). Their reports did

not, however, decline much more than

reports from hospital-based physicians,

who presumably are more insulated from

both economic and legal retaliation by

families about whom reports are made. In

contrast to Illinois, the decline in Pennsylvania reports from physicians in private

practice was dramatically less than the

average and less than the decline in

reports from hospital-based physicians,

the opposite of what the backlash explanation might predict.

Thus, in Illinois, the evidence is somewhat

consistent with the backlash or intimidation explanation, although there was a slower decline and not a true rise in anonymous

reports. In Pennsylvania, neither anonymous reports nor reports from physicians in private practice show evidence

of a backlash. Unfortunately, however, because the backlash explanation concerns

attitudes and practices among reporters,

it is harder to evaluate with CPS data

alone, and the data reported here permit

only a weak evaluation of the backlash

explanation.

A Diminishing Reservoir

of Older Cases

Another possible explanation for the decline could involve what might be described as the depletion of the reservoir

of older, but previously undisclosed, cases

with no true decline in the number of new

cases. The increasing awareness of sexual

abuse in the 1980s may have created an

Parent 

figure

Other relative

Percent Decline

Sibling Professional 

caregiver

Number of Cases

1990–92 Average 1997–99 Average

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

Other

39%

18%

31%

28%

29%

Figure 8: Illinois Trends in Sexual Abuse Cases, by Perpetrator’s

Relationship to Victim

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished data provided by the Illinois Department of 

Child and Family Services.

Year

Reports Investigated cases Substantiated cases*

Number of Cases

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

–5%

–55%

–60%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Figure 9: Oregon Trends in Sexual Abuse Reporting and

Substantiation, 1989–99

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished data provided by the Oregon Department of 

Human Services.

* Data for trends in substantiated cases were drawn from the National Child Abuse and Neglect

Data System (NCANDS) annual reports (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,

1992–2002).
8

artificial surge in the number of cases by

flushing into view a large number of older

or ongoing cases that had previously

escaped detection. Only after the reservoir of old cases was depleted would new

disclosures of sexual abuse truly reflect

new cases. That is, the influx and subsequent depletion of old cases would cause

sexual abuse rates to decline without any

true decline in actual incidence levels.

If reservoir depletion is responsible for

a considerable amount of the decline in

child sexual abuse, then the number of

cases involving older children should also

show a decline. The victims in older, ongoing, and previously undisclosed cases

would almost certainly be older at the

time of disclosure because they would

have been abused for a longer period.

Figure 4, which shows trends by age of

victim, demonstrates no differential decline for older victims (see page 5). Thus,

there is no evidence for the reservoir

depletion hypothesis.

A Real Decline in the

Incidence of Sexual Abuse

If the decline in child sexual abuse cannot

be fully explained by the hypotheses considered above, then is the decline real?

There are several predictions that would

be consistent with a true reduction in the

number of children and youth being sexually abused:

◆ Decline in the number of self-reports

of sexual abuse by victims.

◆ Decline in related social problems.

◆ Greater decline in the most readily

preventable cases.

◆ Increase in the incarceration of

offenders.

Decline in the number of self-reports of

sexual abuse by victims. Unfortunately,

sexual abuse is not a crime category

tracked by the nation’s most reliable

measure of self-reported crime victimization, the National Crime Victimization Survey. However, NCVS does ask about rape

and sexual assault for victims ages 12

and older, and these crimes include acts

counted within the broader definition of

child sexual abuse. The NCVS data show

that sex offenses against juveniles (ages

12–17) declined 56 percent between 1993

and 2000, with virtually all the decline

occurring in offenses committed by

known (family and acquaintance) perpetrators (down 72 percent, see figure 12).

Cases involving known perpetrators are

the type most likely to be categorized as

sexual abuse. The timing and magnitude

of this decline in self-reports are parallel

to the trend in CPS data on sexual abuse.

Another source of self-report information

on sexual abuse comes from the Minnesota

Student Survey (see the sidebar on page 3).

The survey includes two questions about

experiences with sexual abuse. For sexual

abuse by both family and nonfamily perpetrators, these data show a slight rise between 1989 and 1992 and a 22-percent

drop from 1992 to 2001 (see figure 13).

This trend also parallels the trend in the

CPS data.

Decline in related social problems. If sexual abuse were truly declining, the decrease

might be paralleled by drops in indicators

of other related social problems. These

problems could be considered precursors

or outcomes of sexual abuse, or they could

be affected by similar causal factors. The

period in which the decline in sexual abuse

occurred also saw declines in a number of

other child welfare problems, including:

◆ Crime and violent crime.

◆ Births to teenage mothers.

◆ Children running away.

◆ Children living in poverty.

◆ Teen suicide.

In general, the evidence for these other

declines is more reliable than the evidence for the decline in sexual abuse.

The decline in crime and violent crime

during the 1990s has been widely publicized. The evidence for that decline is

based both on self-reports from NCVS

and on police reports. NCVS shows a 

46-percent decrease in violent crime from

1994 to 2000 (Rennison, 2001), and a 

21-percent decrease in intimate partner

assault from 1993 to 1998 (Rennison and

Percent Change in

 Number of Cases

Average of 

reports from 

all sources

Anonymous

reports

–35

–30

–25

–20

–15

–10

–5

0

Illinois Pennsylvania

Figure 10: Trends in

Anonymous Reports of

Sexual Abuse in Illinois and

Pennsylvania, 1991–98

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished

data provided by the Illinois Department

of Child and Family Services and the

Pennsylvania Office of Children, Youth,

and Families. The comparison is between

the 1990–92 average and the 1997–99

average.

Pennsylvania

Private physicians Hospital physicians Average of reports 

from all sources

Illinois

Percent Change in 

 Number of Cases

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

Figure 11: Trends in Sexual Abuse Cases Reported by Private and

Hospital Physicians for Illinois and Pennsylvania, 1991–98

Source: Authors’ analyses of unpublished data provided by the Illinois Department of Child and

Family Services and the Pennsylvania Office of Children, Youth, and Families. The comparison

is between the 1990–92 average and the 1997–99 average.
9

Welchans, 2000). The decline in intimate

partner assault is particularly noteworthy

because of its connections to sexual abuse.

Child sexual abuse is thought to be more

common in families where there is intimate

partner violence (Rumm et al., 2000). Like

child sexual abuse, intimate partner violence has in recent years been the subject of substantial publicity, increasingly

aggressive efforts at case detection, upgraded law enforcement activity, and

stiffened legal sanctions.

Another social problem that has declined

markedly over the same period is the

number of out-of-wedlock teenage pregnancies. The rate of live births to teenage

mothers dropped 28 percent from a high

of 39 live births per 1,000 females ages

15–17 in 1991 to 28 per 1,000 in 2000

(Moore et al., 2001). Teen pregnancy has

often been an outcome of sexual abuse,

both in the form of conceptions resulting

from abuse (Boyer and Fine, 1992) and in

conceptions resulting from the sexualized

behaviors that victims sometime manifest

in the wake of abuse (Butler and Burton,

1990). The number of teens who reported

being currently sexually active or ever

having sexual intercourse also fell during

the 1990s (Terry and Manlove, 2000).

Yet another related indicator that experienced a decline is the frequency of children running away. Police reported 28

percent fewer incidents of taking children

into custody for running away in 1999

than in 1995 (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2001). A comparison of data from the

Second National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway, and Thrownaway

Children (NISMART–2) with data from

NISMART–1 also indicates a decline in the

runaway problem between 1988 and 1999

(Hammer, Finkelhor, and Sedlak, 2002).

Running away is frequently cited as a

coping strategy used by children who are

being sexually abused at home, and it is a

behavior that also increases a youth’s risk

for sexual assault and exploitation (Famularo et al., 1990). The decline in running

away is consistent with a decline in sexual

abuse. Also consistent with a decline in

sexual abuse is a drop in teen suicide.

Vital statistics show a modest 18-percent

reduction in suicide among 15- to 19-yearolds between 1990 and 1999 (Annie E.

Casey Foundation, 2002).

In the same period, the percentage of

children living in poverty dropped 27

percent, from 22 percent of children

younger than 18 in 1992 to 16 percent of

children younger than 18 in 1999 (Federal

Interagency Forum on Child and Family

Statistics, 2000). This decline was accompanied by a decrease in unemployment

and a reduction of families on welfare.

Poverty, unemployment, and welfare have

generally been viewed more as risk factors

for forms of child maltreatment other than

sexual abuse. It is possible, however, that

increased employment, particularly among

potential offenders, may have reduced

both opportunities to molest and some of

the motivations (such as discouragement

and anxiety) behind offending.

Divorce rates also declined over the same

time period as the social indicators described above. Divorce rates fell from 4.8

per 1,000 individuals in 1992 to 4.1 per

1,000 in 2000, a decline of 15 percent (U.S.

Department of Health and Human Services,

2001). Divorce is generally considered both

a risk factor for and a result of sexual abuse.

Rate per 1,000 Juveniles

Year

All offenders Known offenders Unknown offenders

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

56% decline

72% decline

Figure 12: Trends in Sexual Assaults Against Juveniles, 1993–2000

Note: Juvenile victims are ages 12–17. Known offenders are family members or acquaintances,

and unknown offenders are strangers or unidentified.

Source: NCVS, each year, for number of incidents; authors’ analyses.

1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

Survey Year

Nonfamily adult offender Family offender

Percentage of Juveniles

 Reporting Abuse

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

22% decline

22% decline

Figure 13: Juvenile Sexual Abuse Trends in Minnesota, 1998–2001

Note: Respondents are 6th, 9th, and 12th grade students enrolled in public schools in selected

Minnesota school districts.

Source: Unpublished data from the Minnesota School Survey.
10

Greater decline in the most readily preventable cases. Intensive public awareness about child sexual abuse, combined

with aggressive efforts at case finding,

prosecution, and incarceration, may have

had some deterrent effect on potential

offenders. They may be increasingly inhibited by fears of detection and prosecution.

Deterrence generally has its greatest

effect on those offenders with the most

potential for self-control, the biggest stake

in conformity, and the fewest other pressures to deviate. Based on this logic, a

true decline in sexual abuse would be

expected to occur differentially among

biological fathers in intact families. They

tend to be the least compulsive offenders

with a lesser tendency to recidivate, the

most responsiveness to treatment, and

a considerable stake in conformity

(Hanson, 2001).

State data confirm a particularly large

decline in sexual abuse by biological

fathers in intact families. Figures 3 and 8

(see pages 4 and 7, respectively) show a

decrease in sexual abuse by parental figures and in families with two biological

or adoptive parents present. This trend

could be interpreted as consistent with

an argument that deterrence has played

a role in a true decline.

Increase in the incarceration of offenders. Among explanations for the general

decline in crime during the 1990s, the

large increase in the incarceration of offenders has received the most extensive

empirical support (Blumstein, 2000; Conklin, 2003). Although detailed data are

insufficient to conduct a careful analysis

of the possible impact of incarceration

on sexual abuse, the overall pattern is

certainly consistent with the idea that

increased incarceration played a part in a

true decline. Surveys of state correctional

facilities suggest that between 1991 and

1997, the number of persons incarcerated

in state correctional facilities for sex

crimes against children increased 39 percent, from 43,500 to 60,700 (Finkelhor and

Ormrod, 2001), after more than doubling

from 19,900 in 1986. This does not include

the many sexual abuse offenders who receive sanctions that do not involve incarceration for a year or more. Compared

with people who commit other forms of

child maltreatment, people who commit

sexual abuse are much more likely to lose

access to their victims (as a result of court

order or divorce) or to lose their liberty

altogether. The incapacitation of offenders

alone should be expected to have some

effect on the number of new cases.

Conclusion

No solid and convincing explanation exists

for why sexual abuse cases declined in the

1990s, although it is important to try to find

out why a decline occurred. The answer,

if it can be determined, is not likely to be

a simple one. In all likelihood, multiple factors were involved in the trend. Based on

the strength of current evidence, one of

those factors was probably a true decline

in the occurrence of sexual abuse. Changes

in the practices of professionals who report suspected abuse and of the child protective system probably also have played

a part, but how large a part is difficult to

ascertain.

The evidence for some true decline in incidents of sexual abuse comes from several

directions. One is the decline in self-report

measures of sexual assault and sexual

abuse. The NCVS and the Minnesota Student Survey are both crucial indicators

that are independent of the filtering or

policies of social agencies. Although validity problems are always present with the

self-reporting of sensitive information,

there are no strong reasons to think that

candor about sexual abuse has declined.

Another strong piece of evidence for a

true decline is the improvement in many

other indicators of crime, sexual behavior,

and family problems over the same period

of time. The decline in these areas suggests general movement toward improvement in the well-being of children. An

actual decline in the number of sexual

abuse cases seems more plausible in the

context of such a trend than it would if

the other factors had not improved.

More attention has been focused on child

sexual abuse during the past two decades

than on any other form of child maltreatment. It should not be surprising that its

decline would come before and be greater

than that of other forms of maltreatment.

Prevention and intervention efforts have

included school-based prevention education, treatment programs for juvenile and

adult offenders, and greatly enhanced

resources for criminal justice investigation

and prosecution. It is reasonable to think

that, given the scale of these efforts, they

have had some success in preventing or

intervening in sexual abuse.

The relatively inconsistent evidence for

other explanations of the decline in the

number of sexual abuse cases also supports the possibility of a true decline in

sexual abuse. As discussed earlier in this

Bulletin, the other explanations do not

lack evidence. Indeed, some states clearly

have made statistical and administrative

changes that have contributed to the

decline. There is evidence both that allegations involving very young children

have declined more, perhaps because

such cases have less credibility, and that

cases involving young perpetrators may

have declined because they are seen

as outside the purview of the child protection system. Evidence from at least one

state is consistent with the possibility that

some of the decline in substantiated cases

of sexual abuse may be due to a backlash

against those who report it.

Taken together, however, the evidence for

these other explanations seems to exist

only in some places or to explain only a

small portion of the decline in substantiated cases. The decline has been so

widespread geographically and has occurred across so many categories of children, offenders, types of abuse, and types

of evidence that a true decline can be

considered as at least one part of the

overall picture.

Many observers of the decline in the number of substantiated sexual abuse cases,

including state officials, have seemed

resistant to the possibility that the numbers represent a true decline, preferring

almost any other explanation as an alternative. This attitude may stem from a concern that if people believe sexual abuse is

waning, their vigilance and concern about

the problem and willingness to support

funding will disappear. Increasing numbers of cases were part of what mobilized

people and resources during the 1980s, so

declining numbers of cases might have

the opposite effect.

Although social problems go through a

well-recognized issue/attention cycle and

some changes have occurred in the media

attitude toward sexual abuse, there are reasons to doubt that a true decline in incidence of the current magnitude could, if

recognized, result in a massive desertion of

interest or funding. For one, the public and

professional interest in the issue of sexual

abuse has roots that go far beyond the matter of whether it involves 50,000 or 150,000

cases per year, and relate to the now wellestablished role that it plays in discussions

of family problems, gender relations, sexuality, and mental health. The high-profile

public and professional role this problem

has achieved in recent years will not easily

change. Second, the other social problems

discussed above that also have experienced recent declines do not appear to
11

have suffered any social policy desertion

as a result. Homicide, crime, and teen pregnancy are all still issues of ongoing serious

policy attention, despite their declines, because they remain serious problems even

at reduced levels. The declines may, in

fact, have spurred policy interest because

problems that fester for a long time without improvement in spite of considerable

policy attention become frustrating. Policymakers and the public can become discouraged and decide that such problems are

beyond immediate solution. Signs of success from social initiatives can provide the

public and policymakers with energy and

justification for expanded efforts to reinforce what appears to be working. Of

course, the factors influencing public interest and policymaking are complex, but

there is no strong reason to believe that

evidence of a true decline in sexual abuse

by itself will have negative effects on the

policy environment around the problem.

Because social policy benefits from understanding the factors that result in success,

the hypothesis that sexual abuse has declined should be accepted, and identifying

the reasons why it has declined should be

a priority. It is extremely important that

lessons be drawn from a change of this

magnitude in a social problem that has been

considered so widespread and corrosive

to the well-being of children, families, and

communities. Several initiatives might be

considered to deepen our understanding. 

First, more intensive studies need to be

undertaken in individual localities where a

full inventory of explanations could be considered, with both quantitative and qualitative evidence available. In individual localities, it may be easier to observe how

policy and programmatic changes, including prosecution initiatives, treatment resources, and educational programs, may

have been sequenced with the onset or

acceleration of a decline in sexual abuse.

In addition, localities with different trend

patterns (steady declines, increases, no

change, and fluctuating patterns) should

be compared with one another, and it

might be useful if such localities were in

the same state and were comparable in

other ways. Some local studies might center around the case records of investigative agencies that have maintained stable

policies, catchment areas, and detailed

recordkeeping practices over a long period, from which it might be ascertained

more accurately how case characteristics

have changed over time.

It would also greatly help the analysis of

the current decline and future trends if

data systems relating to relevant factors

would be expanded, enhanced, and improved (Finkelhor and Wells, 2003). Currently, data on sex crimes against children

are artificially divided between the child

protective system and the law enforcement

system in a way that prohibits a comprehensive assessment of trends in the whole

problem. Data from state child protection

systems are not gathered in ways that are

comparable across jurisdictions; therefore,

comparisons of the effects of different policy environments are difficult. In the justice

area, systematic information is not readily

available on the demographics of persons

prosecuted, convicted, incarcerated, or

treated for sex crimes against children.

In addition, an understanding of the reasons for the decline has been greatly hampered by the failure of communities to

evaluate their varied prevention and intervention efforts. More effort should be

made prospectively to observe trends and

outcomes as communities implement various prosecution, treatment, community,

and school-based educational efforts. In

this way, a better inventory of the more

and less successful strategies could be

tracked in conjunction with the relative

decline in different locales.

Researchers may not be able to fully answer

the question of why this most recent decline has occurred; however, it is important to be better prepared to understand

the sources of any continuing or future

declines. To what extent do prevention

education, increased public awareness,

greater prosecution, and incarceration

play roles? Answering such questions can

help policymakers formulate policies that

will extend and accelerate the decline in

sexual abuse and, perhaps, in other forms

of child maltreatment.

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Official Business

Penalty for Private Use $300

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Acknowledgments

This Bulletin was written by David

Finkelhor, Ph.D., Professor of Sociology, and Director, Crimes against

Children Research Center, University of New Hampshire; and Lisa M.

Jones, Ph.D., Research Assistant Professor of Psychology, Crimes against

Children Research Center. For more

information on this research, contact

the authors at 603–862–1888, david.

finkelhor@unh.edu, or lmjones@unh.

edu, or visit the Center’s Web site at

www.unh.edu/ccrc.

The authors would like to thank staff

from the following departments for

their permission and assistance in

obtaining data used in this report:

the Pennsylvania Office of Children,

Youth, and Families; the Illinois

Department of Child and Family

Services; the Oregon Department

of Human Services; the Minnesota

Department of Human Services,

Children’s Research, Planning and

Evaluation Department; and the

Minnesota Department of Children,

Families & Learning.

This Bulletin was prepared under grant number

98–JN–PX–0012 from the Office of Juvenile

Justice and Delinquency Prevention, U.S. 

Department of Justice.

Points of view or opinions expressed in this

document are those of the authors and do not

necessarily represent the official position or

policies of OJJDP or the U.S. Department of

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*NCJ~199298*

The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency

Prevention is a component of the Office of

Justice Programs, which also includes the

Bureau of Justice Assistance, the Bureau of

Justice Statistics, the National Institute of

Justice, and the Office for Victims of Crime.