From: Eckman, Tom [mailto:teckman@nwcouncil.org] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 8:28 PM 

To: Caskey, John; 'Rosenstock, Steven'; Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; snadel@aceee.org; Bruce R 

Hirsch; Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); 

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net; 

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; 

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; 

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L; 

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, Emily 

(CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com; 

rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com; 

carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; greg.coulter405@gmail.com; ned.efbrush@gmail.com; 

Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; 

gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; ScottB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com; 

kwinder@mleainc.com; jrossetti@mlgw.org; Brian Coffey; Caitlin Johnson; Matthew Nardotti; Michael 

Rivest; Zhimei Luo; Creevy, Jim; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; 

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; 

ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsasap.org; 

jmauer@standardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com; 

thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org 

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

John, 

Then we agree, electric vehicle charging doesn't materially impact the analysis or 

discussions and utilities do need to watch loading in "Prius" neighborhoods. 

Tom Eckman 

Sent from Tom's DROID 

503.803.5047

-----Original message----- 

From: "Caskey, John" <Joh_Caskey@nema.org>

To: "Eckman, Tom" <teckman@nwcouncil.org>, "'Rosenstock, Steven'" 

<SRosenstock@eei.org>, "Cymbalsky, John" <John.Cymbalsky@EE.Doe.Gov>, "Meyers, Aaron" 

<Aaron.Meyers@CooperIndustries.com>, "Nadel, Steve" <snadel@aceee.org>, Bruce R Hirsch 

<Bruce.R.Hirsch@bge.com>, Robert Berman <bermaneconomics@gmail.com>, Jerry Hodge 

<jhodge@howard-ind.com>

Cc: "Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com" <Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com>, "jerry.schoen@aksteel.com" 

<jerry.schoen@aksteel.com>, "Savitz, Maxine (EMAB)" <maxinesavitz@aol.com>, 

"mhyland@appanet.org" <mhyland@appanet.org>, "Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com" 

<Raymond.Polinski@atimetals.com>, "maheshsampat@bellsouth.net" 

<maheshsampat@bellsouth.net>, "tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com" <tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com>, 

"dbrender@cda.copper.org" <dbrender@cda.copper.org>, "James.Lass@cleco.com" 

<James.Lass@cleco.com>, "chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com" 

<chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com>, "frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com" 

<frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com>, "ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com" 

<ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com>, "Trujillo, Antonio" 

<Antonio.Trujillo@CooperIndustries.com>, "Moore, Jack C" <Jack.Moore@CooperIndustries.com>, 

"Corkran, Jerry L" <Jerry.Corkran@CooperIndustries.com>, "tballo@earthjustice.org" 

<tballo@earthjustice.org>, "carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com" <carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com>, 

"eduardorobles@eaton.com" <eduardorobles@eaton.com>, "Marchetti, Emily (CONTR)" 

<Emily.Marchetti@EE.Doe.Gov>, "Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR)" 
<Jeremiah.Freeman@ee.doe.gov>, "Raba, Jim" <Jim.Raba@ee.doe.gov>, "DYoung@energysolution.com" <DYoung@energy-solution.com>, "rick.anderson@faypwc.com" 

<rick.anderson@faypwc.com>, "bsmith@federalpacific.com" <bsmith@federalpacific.com>, 

"rgreeson@federalpacific.com" <rgreeson@federalpacific.com>, "carlos.gaytan@ge.com" 

<carlos.gaytan@ge.com>, "artrosenfeld@gmail.com" <artrosenfeld@gmail.com>, 

"greg.coulter405@gmail.com" <greg.coulter405@gmail.com>, "ned.efbrush@gmail.com" 

<ned.efbrush@gmail.com>, Richard Parker <richardparkerdc@gmail.com>, 

"Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com" <Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com>, "Cohen, Daniel" 

<Daniel.Cohen@hq.doe.gov>, Phil Hopkinson <phopkinson@hvolt.com>, "cabolduc@lbl.gov" 

<cabolduc@lbl.gov>, "gjrosenquist@lbl.gov" <gjrosenquist@lbl.gov>, "kcoughlin@lbl.gov" 

<kcoughlin@lbl.gov>, "ScottB@LVMetals.com" <ScottB@lvmetals.com>, 

"dave.millure@metglas.com" <dave.millure@metglas.com>, "kwinder@mleainc.com" 

<kwinder@mleainc.com>, "jrossetti@mlgw.org" <jrossetti@mlgw.org>, 

"brian.coffey@navigant.com" <brian.coffey@navigant.com>, "caitlin.johnson@navigant.com" 

<caitlin.johnson@navigant.com>, "matthew.nardotti@navigant.com" 

<matthew.nardotti@navigant.com>, "mrivest@navigant.com" <mrivest@navigant.com>, 

"zhimei.luo@navigant.com" <zhimei.luo@navigant.com>, "Creevy, Jim" <Jim.Creevy@Nema.org>, 

"mwaltner@nrdc.org" <mwaltner@nrdc.org>, "rroy@nrdc.org" <rroy@nrdc.org>, 

"robert.saint@nreca.coop" <robert.saint@nreca.coop>, "vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com" 

<vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com>, "gbf1@pge.com" <gbf1@pge.com>, 

"chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com" <chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com>, "ahofmann@publicpower.org" 

<ahofmann@publicpower.org>, "pkumar@publicpower.org" <pkumar@publicpower.org>, 

"adelaski@standardsASAP.org" <adelaski@standardsasap.org>, "jmauer@standardsasap.org" 

<jmauer@standardsasap.org>, "wes.patterson@us.abb.com" <wes.patterson@us.abb.com>, 

"chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com" <chad.kennedy@us.schneider-electric.com>, 

"thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com" <thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com>, 

"charlied@uus.org" <charlied@uus.org>

Sent: Sat, Nov 19, 2011 01:09:30 GMT+00:00

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

There are two fundamental problems with the Council’s analysis. First, the analysis looks at 

both 110 volt 15 amp charging and 220 volt 30 amp charging. Level 1 charging only requires 

less than 2 kW and may not significantly impact transformer loading. However, most EV 

proponents today are looking at Level 2 charging (up to 20 kW) or even Level 3 charging (over 

20 kW). The analysis only looks at impacts at 6 kW not the potential 20 kW. The higher kW can 

impact existing transformer loading. 

 

Second, the average kW impact on EV’s may be relatively small. But some transformers in 

affluent areas (high Prius adoption) may be over loaded while transformer loading in less 

affluent areas may not increase. Typical distribution systems in Virginia have roughly 6-8 15 

kW homes connected to a 75-100 kVA transformer. If just two or three of these 6-8 homes 

charge EV’s at the same time using 6kW chargers, that increased load can cause transformer 

failure even if the average load increase in the region is small. This can be particularly bad with 

electric heating loads during evening hours. 

 

I personally don’t think that EV loading on transformers will significantly impact our analyses 

and discussions, but I do think that utilities will need to carefully track the penetration of EV’s 

on individual circuits and transformers; particularly with Level 2 charging. 

 

John F. Caskey, CEM

Assistant Vice President, Industry Operations
National Electrical Manufacturers Assoc. (NEMA)

1300 North 17th Street - Suite 1752 

Rosslyn, VA 22209

john.caskey@nema.org

703-841-3233 Voice

703-841-3333 FAX

703-350-6886 Cell

From: Eckman, Tom [mailto:teckman@nwcouncil.org] 

Sent: Friday, November 18, 2011 6:54 PM 

To: 'Rosenstock, Steven'; Cymbalsky, John; Meyers, Aaron; Nadel, Steve; Bruce R Hirsch; 

Robert Berman; Jerry Hodge; Caskey, John 

Cc: Eric.Petersen@aksteel.com; jerry.schoen@aksteel.com; Savitz, Maxine (EMAB); 

mhyland@appanet.org; Raymond.Polinski@ATImetals.com; maheshsampat@bellsouth.net; 

tpetrosino@carolina.rr.com; dbrender@cda.copper.org; James.Lass@cleco.com; 

chris.brown@cogentpowerinc.com; frank.guilbault@cogentpowerinc.com; 

ted.johnstone@cogentpowerinc.com; Trujillo, Antonio; Moore, Jack C; Corkran, Jerry L; 

tballo@earthjustice.org; carlosgsiqueiros@eaton.com; eduardorobles@eaton.com; Marchetti, 

Emily (CONTR); Freeman, Jeremiah (CONTR); Raba, Jim; DYoung@energy-solution.com; 

rick.anderson@faypwc.com; bsmith@federalpacific.com; rgreeson@federalpacific.com; 

carlos.gaytan@ge.com; artrosenfeld@gmail.com; greg.coulter405@gmail.com; 

ned.efbrush@gmail.com; Richard Parker; Paul.Ryan@hitmet.com; Cohen, Daniel; Phil 

Hopkinson; cabolduc@lbl.gov; gjrosenquist@lbl.gov; kcoughlin@lbl.gov; 

ScottB@LVMetals.com; dave.millure@metglas.com; kwinder@mleainc.com; 

jrossetti@mlgw.org; brian.coffey@navigant.com; caitlin.johnson@navigant.com; 

matthew.nardotti@navigant.com; mrivest@navigant.com; zhimei.luo@navigant.com; Creevy, 

Jim; mwaltner@nrdc.org; rroy@nrdc.org; robert.saint@nreca.coop; 

vijay.tendulkar@onyxpower.com; gbf1@pge.com; chuck.simmons@pgnmail.com; 

ahofmann@publicpower.org; pkumar@publicpower.org; adelaski@standardsASAP.org; 

jmauer@standardsasap.org; wes.patterson@us.abb.com; chad.kennedy@us.schneiderelectric.com; thomas.patzner@us.schneider-electric.com; charlied@uus.org

Subject: RE: Electric Vehicle Projections 

 

Aaron/Steve R., et al: 

 

As part of developing the last Pacific Northwest Power Plan, the Council analyzed the potential 

impact of electric vehicles on PNW loads through 2030. We created three scenarios, ranging 

from a low market share of 20% of cumulative new sales by 2030 to a high of 48% of 

cumulative new sales by 2030. For comparison, my review of the spreadsheet that John sent 

shows EV’s and PHEV’s comprising just over 4 % of all new vehicle sales between 2010 and 

2030, so our “low” case scenario is five times as high as the one assumed in the AEO. Bottom 

line, is that under the Council’s low case scenario, PNW “off-peak” loads would increase about 

800 MW (4% above the base forecast) while under the high case they would increase by just 

under 2000 MW (10% above the base forecast). Both scenarios assumed that 95% of the 

charging would take place “off-peak.” Given this rather modest impact in off-peak demand (In 

the PNW peak loads are typically 1.8 times off-peak loads) it would seem very unlikely that a