FAA LONG-RANGE 

 AEROSPACE FORECASTS

 FISCAL YEARS

 2020, 2025 and 2030 

 AUGUST 2006
 

2

FAA LONG-RANGE 

 AEROSPACE FORECASTS 

 FISCAL YEARS 

 2020, 2025 and 2030

I. SUMMARY

To assure consistency in agency planning, the Office of Aviation Policy and Plans provides an 

extension of its annual 12-year forecasts of aviation demand. Although forecast values are 

shown for specific years, year-to-year fluctuations are difficult to forecast precisely. Therefore, 

the projections reflect the trend of average conditions expected during the forecast period. 

The Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) annual 12-year forecast is utilized for both 

manpower and facility planning as well as for policy and regulatory analysis. The latest 12-year 

forecast (FAA-APO-06-1, FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2006-2017, March 2006) 

provides projections of aviation activity and FAA workload measures through the year 2017. 

Periodically, a need arises for projections of aviation demand and activity beyond the published 

horizon. This document was developed to meet these needs, and contains projections for 

commercial and general aviation aircraft fleet and hours, mainline carrier and regional/commuter 

passenger enplanements (domestic and international), and mainline carrier air cargo revenue tonmiles (RTMs). 

The economic assumptions used in developing these extended forecasts (FY2017-2030) are as 

follows: 

• The U.S. economy will grow at a lower rate than the intermediate 12-year period -- 

2.9 percent versus 3.1 percent annually; 

• Inflation will be slightly higher than in the intermediate forecast period -- averaging 

2.6 percent annually compared to 2.5 percent; and 

• Falling real fuel prices -- a decrease of 1.0 percent annually compared to a decrease of 

1.0 percent annually during the 2006-2017 period; 

These assumptions translate into generally similar growth in aviation activity and FAA workload 

measures during the extended 13-year period (2017 to 2030) than was forecast for the 

intermediate 12-year period (2005 to 2017), but with singular exceptions. Table 1 shows 

comparative annual growth rates for 2 time periods: (1) 2005 to 2017, and (2) 2017 to 2030. 
 

3

II. LONG-RANGE FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

The long-range aviation forecasts are based on assumptions concerning the future of the 

commercial and general aviation industries and on the latest macroeconomic projections. For the 

purposes of this report, the forecast period refers to the long-range outlook, particularly the 2018 

to 2030 period. Much of the discussion assumes some familiarity with the forecasts contained in 

FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 2006-2017 (March 2006). The forecast publication can 

be found on the Internet at http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics/aviation/aerospace_forecasts. 

A. Economic Assumptions

FAA’s long-range traffic, capacity and yield forecasts are based on the economic projections 

developed by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and Global Insight, Inc. OMB’s 

projections of U.S. economic growth, inflation and interest rates were used for the period 2006-

2017, while Global Insight’s U.S. economic projections were used for the period 2018 to 2030. 

FAA’s international market forecasts utilized Global Insight’s economic projections for 

international economic growth through the year 2025. Stable global economic growth trends 

were assumed for the 2025 – 2030 period to round out the 2005 – 2030 forecast horizon. Essentially, these projections represent the average of the possible paths that the U.S. and global 

economy could follow. Using trend projections assumes that: (1) no major shocks will occur but 

the rapid run-up in oil prices in 2004/05 reflects a major change in the supply/demand 

relationship for oil; (2) economic policies remain stable; (3) national and international markets 

do not experience dramatic shifts in either the supply or demand for economic goods and 

services; and (4) the forecasts are not capacity constrained, and assume that the FAA and the 

airlines will develop cost efficient solutions to mitigate any delay/congestion problems. In 

addition, the forecast assumes that these long-term economic projections represent appropriate 

points from which to evaluate the effects of variations about the mean of expected values of 

various activity measures, transportation services, or FAA workload measures. The major 

economic assumptions are addressed in more detail below.
 

4

TABLE 1 

COMPARISON OF

INTERMEDIATE AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

 

Average Annual Percent Change

2005 - 2017 2017 - 2030

AVIATION ACTIVITY 

Passenger Enplanements 

 U.S. Domestic 

 Mainline Air Carriers 2.5 3.0 

 Regionals/Commuters 4.2 3.0 

 International* 5.0 4.0 

 

Air Cargo RTMs 

 Domestic 3.2 2.9 

 International 6.3 6.0 

 

Aircraft Fleets 

 Mainline Air Carrier 2.8 3.2 

 Regional/Commuter 2.5 2.1 

 Cargo Jets 2.3 2.1 

 General Aviation 1.4 1.2 

 

Pilots 

 Total 0.9 1.2 

 Instrument Rated 1.9 2.3 

 

FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES 

 Tower Operations** 2.0 2.1 

 Instrument Operations** 2.3 2.4 

 IFR Aircraft Handled 3.0 3.1 

 

* Total international passengers to and from United States—U.S. and Foreign Flag Carriers. 

** Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers. 
 

5

Real Gross Domestic Product

The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a moderate rate of 3.0 percent annually during the 25-

year forecast period (2005 – 2030). Growth in real gross domestic product (GDP), adjusted for 

price changes and expressed in 2000 dollars, is projected to average 2.9 percent annually over 

the extended 13-year period (2017 to 2030). This is comparable to both the historic rate of 

growth (2.9 percent between 1974 and 2000) and the projected growth for the intermediate 12-

year forecast period (3.1 percent between 2005 and 2017). 

International economic growth is expected to grow at rates comparable to those of the U.S. 

during the 25-year forecast period. World real GDP is projected to average 3.2 percent annually 

for the intermediate 12-year forecast period and 3.0 percent annually over the extended 13-year 

forecast period. These rates of growth are comparable to the historic rate of growth of 

2.8 percent between 1980 and 2000. 

Consumer Price Index

Inflation is not expected to return to the high rates experienced during the latter half of the 1970s 

and early 1980s (8.7 percent annual growth between 1972 and 1982) during the entire 25-year 

forecast period. Global Insight’s opinion is that there will be little upward pressure from real 

wage rates and commodity prices, and that the Federal Reserve is committed to controlling 

inflation while allowing the money supply to grow enough to ensure growth in output. The 

consumer price index is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent a year 

during the 25-year time period – 2.5 percent during the intermediate period, increasing slightly to 

2.6 percent over the extended forecast period. 

Fuel Prices

Fuel prices, as measured by the Refiners’ Acquisition Cost, are forecast to increase at an annual 

rate of 1.5 percent over the 25-year forecast period—lower than the expected overall inflation 

rate. Between 2005 and 2017, nominal fuel prices are projected to increase 1.5 percent annually, 

a 1.0 percent decline annually in real terms. Between 2017 and 2030, nominal fuel prices are 

expected to maintain this annual rate of increase (1.5 percent), a decrease of 1.0 percent annually 

in real terms. 

Interest Rates

Long-term nominal interest rates are tied to inflationary expectations. The Federal Reserve is 

expected to pursue a monetary policy that keeps inflation in check and allows for sufficient 

money growth to sustain economic output gains. Given the long-term outlook for inflation, longterm interest rates are expected to rise gradually during both the intermediate and extended 

forecast periods. Interest rates (10 year U.S. treasury bonds) are expected to increase from 

4.2 percent in 2005 to 5.5 percent in 2017 and remain at that level throughout the balance of the 

extended forecast period. 
 

6

ECONOMIC VARIABLES FORECASTS

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

TRILLIONS (2000 USD) 

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

USD PER BARREL 

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

(1982-84 = 100) 

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

INTEREST RATE (%) 

REAL GDP CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

REFINERS’ ACQUISITION COST 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BONDS
 

7

B. Operational Variables

The long-range forecasts of various operational variables discussed below are, for the most part, 

a continuation of the trends discussed in greater detail in FAA Aerospace Forecasts: Fiscal Years 

2006-2017. As with the economic projections, these forecasts reflect an average trend of the 

possible paths that the various operational variables could follow. These long-term projections 

represent appropriate points from which to evaluate the effects of variations about the expected 

values of various activity measures, transportation demand and services, or FAA workload 

measures. 

Air Carrier Passenger Yield

The current 12-year and extended 13-year forecasts assume that real domestic passenger yield 

(expressed as revenue per passenger mile) will continue its historical long-term gradual 

downward trend. Real domestic passenger yields are projected to decline by 0.9 percent 

annually over the 25-year period. The downward trend in real domestic yields is based on the 

assumptions of continued strong competition in the industry, and continued improvements in 

efficiency and productivity. 

There has been a long-term decrease in international real yields similar to that experienced in the 

domestic market. However, real yields in international markets are generally lower than in the 

domestic market, because of lower operating costs. These lower costs are associated with longer 

average stage length and with the use of larger aircraft, which tend to have lower seat mile costs. 

It is assumed that productivity and competition in international markets will continue to expand 

over the forecast period (although at rates less than in domestic markets), and this will push real 

yields lower. Market efficiencies will be achieved with the use of more productive aircraft, 

expanded open-skies agreements, and extended global alliances. Total international real yields 

for U.S. flag carriers are expected to decline 0.7 percent annually through 2017 and decline 

0.6 percent annually between 2017 and 2030. Over the 25-year period, international yields, 

adjusted for inflation, are expected to decline 0.6 percent a year. 

Average Aircraft Size

The average number of seats per aircraft mile for the U.S. domestic mainline carrier fleet is 

projected to grow modestly throughout the intermediate 12-year forecast period. Increases in 

average seats per aircraft mile in the near term will be achieved through retirement of older, 

smaller aircraft, as well as expected increases in average stage length. Over the intermediate 12-

year forecast period, the average seats per aircraft for the domestic mainline fleet is expected to 

grow by 0.4 seats per year – from 150.3 in 2005 to 154.6 in 2017. 

The average seating capacity of the domestic mainline carrier fleet is expected to continue to 

increase over the extended 13-year forecast period. The new aircraft entering the fleet during 

this period are expected to be somewhat larger than the aircraft being replaced. Therefore, the 

average seats per aircraft for the domestic fleet is expected to increase by 0.5 seats annually over 

the extended forecast period, reaching 161.3 seats in 2030. 
 

8

The average number of seats per aircraft mile for the U.S. air carrier international fleet is 

expected to grow modestly over the 25-year forecast period as U.S. carriers continue to expand 

non-stop city-pair service into deep South America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile), Europe, and Asia. 

Although U.S. carriers are expected to employ larger two-engine, two-aisle aircraft in Atlantic 

and Pacific markets, the growth of Latin American services (at a faster rate than in Europe, but 

slower than in the Pacific, and where aircraft seating capacity is significantly smaller), will 

dampen the overall increases in seats per international aircraft operations. The average number 

of seats per aircraft in international markets is expected to increase from 214.1 seats in 2005 to 

228.5 seats in 2030. 

The average seating capacity of domestic regional/commuter aircraft is forecast to increase by 

0.5 seats annually between 2005 and 2017 (from 49.4 to 55.1 seats). This trend is expected to 

continue over the extended forecast period, with the average domestic seating capacity of 

regional/commuter aircraft averaging approximately 61.6 seats in the year 2030. This reflects 

the continued integration of greater numbers of regional jet aircraft (up to 90 seats) into the 

regional/commuter fleet, and will continue to blur the distinction between regional/commuters 

and the mainline commercial operators. 

Load Factor

Domestic mainline carrier load factors are projected to remain at their current historical high 

levels throughout the remainder of the intermediate and extended forecast periods. During the 

past several years, airline scheduling policies and yield management practices have allowed air 

carriers to rapidly adjust capacity levels to more closely correspond to changes in passenger 

demand. This ability to make rapid adjustments to meet changing demand conditions has 

enabled the airlines to push up load factors to all-time highs. It is expected that present fleet 

plans will provide capacity levels that should maintain the mainline carrier load factors at 

between 77.3 and 78.6 percent during the intermediate forecast period; and to grow to 

80.5 percent by 2030. 

As in domestic markets, the wide range of aircraft capable of international flight also allows U.S. 

airlines to adjust their international capacity levels to changing levels of demand. The 

international load factor is also forecast to remain relatively stable during the 25-year forecast 

period, decreasing slightly from 79.3 percent in 2005 to 79.2 percent in 2030, reflecting the 

increasing share of the demand in the relatively low load factor Latin American markets. 

Domestic regional/commuter load factors are projected to increase from 69.8 percent in 2005 to 

75.2 percent in 2017. During the extended forecast period, regional/commuter load factors are 

expected to remain relatively stable at 75.2 percent through 2030. The stable load factors reflect 

the relative maturation of this segment of the industry, along with network carriers’ desire to 

maintain appropriate presence in their most profitable markets. It is expected that by 2017 the 

integration of regional jet aircraft into feeder markets will have reached its saturation level, and 

will remain stable through 2030. 
 

9

OPERATIONAL VARIABLES FORECASTS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

CENTS/RPM (2005 USD) 

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE 

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

RPM PER ASM (%) 

MAINLINE REGIONAL/COMMUTER

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

SEATS PER AIRCRAFT MILE 

REAL DOMESTIC MAINLINE 

CARRIER PASSENGER YIELD

DOMESTIC PASSENGER 

LOAD FACTOR

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

DOMESTIC MAINLINE CARRIER AIRCRAFT

AVERAGE SEATING CAPACITY

REGIONAL/COMMUTER AIRCRAFT
 

10

III. LONG-RANGE AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

Forecasts of various measures of aviation activity for 2005 and 5-year increments between 2006 

and 2030 are provided in Table 2, page 14. A discussion of some of these measures of aviation 

activity follows in the paragraphs below. 

A. Passenger Enplanements and Cargo 

Mainline Carriers

Mainline carrier demand, as measured by domestic passenger enplanements, is projected to grow 

at about the same rate as the general economy. For the period 2005 to 2017, domestic passenger 

enplanements for the mainline carriers are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 

2.5 percent compared to a 3.1 percent annual growth rate in real GDP. Over the extended 

forecast period (2017-2030), domestic passenger enplanements for the mainline carriers are 

projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent compared to real GDP growth of 

2.9 percent annually. 

Forecasts of total international passenger traffic to and from the U.S. (U.S. and foreign flag 

carriers), are provided between the United States and three world travel areas--Atlantic, Latin 

America (including Mexico and the Caribbean), and the Pacific/Far East--as well as for 

U.S./Canadian transborder traffic. Total passenger traffic between the United States and the rest 

of the world is expected to grow from 138.7 million in 2005 to 413.6 million in 2030, for an 

average annual growth rate of 4.5 percent. Passenger traffic in the Pacific markets is expected to 

post the strongest growth at 6.2 percent annually through 2030. The second fastest growing market 

will be the Latin American market that is projected to grow at 4.6 percent annually during the same 

time period. The Atlantic market is forecast to grow at 3.6 percent annually through 2030, 

followed by U.S./Canadian transborder traffic at 3.5 percent for the 25-year forecast period. 

Regionals/Commuters

Domestic regional/commuter passengers are projected to continue to grow relatively faster than 

the mainline air carriers through the intermediate forecast period with average annual growth of 

4.2 percent. A large part of the growth during the early years of the intermediate forecast period 

results from the continued shift of low-density, short-haul markets from the mainline air carriers 

to their commuter code-share partners, a trend that accelerated in the aftermath of the September 

11th terrorist attacks. In the longer run, the distinction between mainline carrier and 

regional/commuter flying will essentially be eliminated and these carriers will be competing for 

similar passengers. As a result, regional/commuter passenger growth during the extended 

forecast period will be similar to that of the mainline carriers, averaging 3.0 percent per year. 

The relatively slower growth rate during the extended 2017 – 2030 period reflects the maturation 

of this segment of the U.S. domestic industry. 

The introduction and popularity of regional jets is expected to open up new growth opportunities 

in thin, intermediate range markets that cannot be served economically with larger mainline jet 

aircraft. The speed and range of the regional jet also offers the opportunity for more point-topoint (hub bypass) operations in markets that are currently served only via connecting flights 
 

11

through large hubs. The continued public preference for jet aircraft together with the increasing 

availability of larger (e.g. 70+ seats) regional jets should ensure that the regional/commuter 

industry should continue to play a significant role in the industry’s future profitability. 

Air Cargo

The air cargo forecast discussed here is comprised of domestic and international revenue 

freight/express and mail carried by U.S. mainline air carriers and is measured by revenue tonmiles (RTMs). Air cargo is moved in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo 

aircraft on both scheduled and non-scheduled service. 

In 2005, combined domestic and international RTMs flown by U.S. air carriers totaled 

39.2 billion. By 2017 this figure is projected to reach 71.7 billion, an average annual increase of 

5.2 percent. During the extended forecast period, total domestic and international cargo RTMs is 

projected to grow to 137.5 billion RTMs by 2030, an average annual increase of 5.1 percent. 

Over the entire 25-year period, growth in total air cargo RTMs is expected to average 5.1 percent 

annually. 

Domestic RTMs are forecast to increase from 16.8 billion in 2005 to 34.0 billion in 2030, an 

average annual increase of 3.0 percent over the 25-year forecast period. International RTMs are 

forecast to grow at a faster rate than domestic RTMs, increasing from 23.1 billion in 2005 to 

103.5 billion in 2030, averaging 6.2 percent growth annually for the 25-year forecast period. 

This expectation is based on the projected economic growth in world GDP, with the highest rates 

of growth expected in the Asian (particularly China) and Latin American regions. 

B. Aircraft Fleet 

Mainline Air Carriers

The mainline air carrier passenger jet fleet is forecast to increase at an annual rate of 2.8 percent 

from 3,953 aircraft in 2005 to 5,481 aircraft in 2017. The size of the fleet grows modestly from 

the low point in 2005 as carriers add aircraft to accommodate growing demand. By far the 

largest increase, in terms of number of aircraft, is projected to occur in the two-engine 

narrowbody aircraft category, which is expected to grow by an average of over 82 aircraft 

(2.2 percent) annually. By 2017, the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category is expected to 

total 4,331 units and account for 79.0 percent of the fleet. This trend is also expected to continue 

throughout the extended forecast period. 

Between 2017 and 2030, the mainline carrier fleet is forecast to increase at an average annual 

rate of 3.2 percent, reaching a total of 8,274 aircraft. Again, the largest growth in the fleet is 

expected to occur in the two-engine narrowbody aircraft category. By 2030, this category is 

forecast to grow to 6,441 units and account for approximately 78 percent of the fleet. 

The cargo jet fleet is projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.3 percent during the intermediate 

12-year forecast period, from 1,021 aircraft in 2005 to 1,345 in 2017. During the extended 13-

year forecast period, the cargo jet fleet is forecast to increase at a 2.1 percent average annual rate 
 

12

reaching 1,758 aircraft by 2030. Over the entire 25-year forecast period, the cargo jet fleet is 

forecast to grow at 2.2 percent. 

The regional/commuter fleet is expected to grow from its current 2,862 aircraft in 2005 to 5,062 

by the year 2030. This is an average annual growth rate of 2.3 percent over the 25-year forecast 

period, or an increase of approximately 88 aircraft annually. These totals reflect the continued 

growth in the regional jet fleet, especially the larger versions (70+ seats), which will be 

introduced into the fleet in significant numbers over the forecast period. 

General Aviation Aircraft & Hours Flown

The number of active general aviation aircraft is expected to increase from 214,591 aircraft in 

2005 to 252,775 in 2017, and then expand to 294,005 by 2030. This represents an average 

annual growth of 1.4 percent during the intermediate forecast period and 1.2 percent over the 

extended forecast period. The piston engine portion of the general aviation fixed-wing aircraft 

fleet is forecast to increase by 0.3 percent during both the intermediate and extended forecast 

periods. Fixed-wing turbine powered general aviation aircraft are expected to increase 

4.3 percent annually between 2005 and 2017, and by 3.1 percent during the 2017 to 2030 period. 

The higher growth rate for the turbine portion of the fleet is based on the expectations of a 

greater business and corporate use (including new microjets) of general aviation aircraft in an 

expanding U.S. economy. 

Growth in general aviation flight hours is forecast to increase at a faster rate than the active fleet, 

reflecting increasing aircraft utilization rates. General aviation activity is very sensitive to 

changes in fuel prices and to variations in the rate of economic growth. Based on the 

assumptions of sustained economic growth, relative stability in real fuel prices, and the 

continued growth in fractional ownership programs and corporate flying, it is expected that 

general aviation aircraft utilization will increase from recent levels, and begin to return to 

historical rates. Flight hours will grow at 3.2 percent annually during the intermediate forecast 

period, and 2.8 percent annually over the extended forecast period, increasing from 28.3 million 

in 2005 to 41.1 million in 2017, and to 58.5 million in 2030. 

The positive forecasts for general aviation fleet and flight hours are heavily dependent on the 

assumptions related to continued economic growth, price stability, as well as a rapid increase in 

the use of microjets or very light jets (VLJ’s). The forecast assumes that the market for ondemand air taxi service will continue to grow rapidly and stimulate high demand for VLJ’s. By 

2017, the VLJ fleet is projected to total 4,950 aircraft and grows to approximately 11,000 aircraft 

by 2030. However, equally important to future growth are continued investment in plant 

expansion and production by general aviation manufacturers and the success of industry 

programs, such as “GA Team 2000,” to foster the growth in number of student pilots. If the 

general aviation industry falters in its efforts to stimulate the production of new general aviation 

products and services, and/or the growth in the number of student pilots, the outlook for the 

active fleet, hours flown, and general aviation activity at FAA air traffic facilities could be 

considerably lower than the current projections. 
 

13

C. Pilot Population

The total pilot population is forecast to increase from 609,737 in 2005 to 791,440 by the year 

2030, an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent over the 25-year forecast period. The largest 

growth is found in the commercial and student pilot categories. Recent industry program 

initiatives designed to promote the benefits of general aviation flying to businesses and the 

public, to stimulate growth in the number of new student pilots, and to develop an improved 

flight training infrastructure contribute to the growth in the pilot population. Increased demand 

for corporate, fractional, and on-demand air taxi services is expected to stimulate the growth in 

the commercial pilot population. During this same time period, the number of instrument rated 

pilots is expected to increase from 311,500 to 522,990. The instrument rated pilot share of the 

total pilot population increases from 51.1 percent in 2005 to 66.1 percent in 2030. 

D. Total Aviation Activity

Total civil aircraft activity at towered airports (266 FAA and 230 contract in 2005) and nontowered airports (based on projections for just under 3,500 public use airports in the Terminal 

Area Forecast database) is forecast to reach 161.1 million by the year 2030, an average annual 

growth of 1.2 percent over the activity level forecast for 2017 (138.1 million operations). 

Commercial aircraft operations (the sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi) at all U.S. airports, 

towered and non-towered, are projected to increase from 30.0 million in 2005 to 36.3 million in 

2015, and to 50.5 million in 2030. These forecasts imply an average annual growth rate of 

2.3 percent for the intermediate and 2.2 percent for the extended forecast periods, respectively. 

The number of general aviation operations at towered and non-towered airports is forecast to 

increase from 84.5 million in 2005 to 93.1 million in 2015 and to 105.2 million in 2030. These 

forecasts imply an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent over both the intermediate and 

extended forecast periods. Much of the growth is the result of increased use of the turbine fleet 

for business/corporate related flying. 
 

14

 TABLE 2

 LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

 AVIATION DEMAND AND ACTIVITY

 

Actual 

March 2006 

Forecast Long Range Forecast

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Passenger Enplanement and 

Air Cargo (In Millions)

 

Enplanements 

 Mainline Air Carriers 

 Domestic* 523.1 577.7 665.3 774.1 900.7 1,045.0 

 International** 138.7 183.0 228.3 280.0 340.7 413.6 

 Regional/Commuter 146.7 181.2 223.1 263.5 305.0 352.1 

Freight/Express RTMs 39.2 50.7 65.0 83.3 106.9 137.5 

 

Aircraft Fleets

(in Thousands) 

Mainline CarrierLarge Jets*** 4.0 4.5 5.1 6.0 7.1 8.3 

Cargo-Jet Aircraft 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 

Regional/Commuter 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 5.1 

 Regional Jets 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.1 

 Turboprops 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 

General Aviation 

 Piston Engine 162.0 163.8 166.7 168.6 171.0 173.4 

 Turbine Engine 16.7 20.6 25.6 30.9 36.2 41.1 

 Helicopters 7.6 9.9 11.9 13.9 16.2 18.8 

 Experimental/Other 28.4 38.8 43.8 47.9 53.6 60.7 

 

Active Pilots

(In Thousands) 

Total 609.7 624.0 665.9 703.6 747.7 791.4 

Instrument Rated 311.5 317.7 375.5 420.7 473.7 523.0 

 

Estimated U. S. 

Civil Operations

(In Millions) 

Commercial 30.0 32.6 36.3 40.5 45.4 50.5 

General Aviation 84.5 88.7 93.1 96.9 101.1 105.2 

* Mainline Commercial Carriers only (excluding Form 41 Commuters) 

** Total international passengers to and from the United States—U.S. and Foreign Flag carriers 

*** Including EMB-190’s 
 

15

AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MILLIONS OF PSGRS .

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

AIRCRAFT (000) 

Mainline Regional/Commuter

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MILLIONS OF PSGRS .

0

5 0

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

AIRCRAFT (000)

Piston Turbine/Rotor/O ther

MAINLINE DOMESTIC ENPLANEMENTS

REGIONAL/COMMUTER 

DOMESTIC ENPLANEMENTS

COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT FLEET GENERAL AVIATION FLEET
 

16

IV. LONG-RANGE WORKLOAD MEASURE FORECASTS

Forecasts of FAA workload measures by user groups for 2005 and 5-year increments between 2005 

and 2030 are provided in Table 2, page 19. A discussion of the forecasts follows in the paragraphs 

below. 

A. Towered Operations

At the end of FY 2005 the number of FAA towers totaled 266, down from 402 in 1994. During this 

same period of time, the number of FAA contract towers has increased from 34 to 234. An additional 

7 contract towers are expected to be added in 2006, bringing the total number of contract towers to 

241. Given the uncertainty about current and future year conversions and additions, the forecasts 

presented in this document are combined forecasts independent of the distinction between FAA and 

contract tower status. 

Aircraft operations at combined FAA and contract towered airports are forecast to total 80.3 million 

in 2017 and 105.5 million in 2030--an average annual growth rate of 2.1 percent over the 25-year 

forecast period. Much of the growth is expected to come from commercial activity, which is 

projected to grow 2.7 percent annually during the intermediate forecast period and 2.5 percent 

annually during the extended forecast period. The slower growth in commercial activity relative to 

total domestic enplanements (2.9 and 3.0 percent during the intermediate and extended forecast 

periods) is due to a combination of continued high load factors, larger aircraft, and longer passenger 

trip lengths.

Although domestic regional/commuter enplanements increase at a faster rate than the mainline 

carriers over the 25-year forecast period (3.6 percent compared to 2.8 percent), commuter/air taxi 

operations increase at a slower rate than air carrier operations (2.3 percent compared to 2.6 percent). 

The commuter/air taxi activity growth is largely due to the large numbers of 70-90 seat regional jet 

aircraft that are expected to enter the regional/commuter fleet over the forecast period. As such, 

regional/commuter average aircraft size, load factors, and passenger trip lengths all increase at 

significantly faster rates than do those of the mainline carriers. 

General aviation activity, which accounted for 54.1 percent of combined tower activity in 2005, 

grows at a slower pace relative to commercial activity over the 25-year forecast period – 1.9 percent. 

In the year 2030, general aviation is expected to account for 52.0 percent of combined tower activity. 

Military activity is projected to grow to 2.9 million operations by 2007 and remain at that level 

through the balance of the intermediate and the extended forecast periods. 

B. Instrument Operations

Instrument operations at combined FAA and contract-towered airports are forecast to total 

64.4 million in 2017 and 87.9 million in 2030, an average annual growth rate of 2.3 and 2.4 percent 

respectively, during the intermediate and extended forecast periods. Much of the growth is expected 

to come from commercial activity, which is projected to grow 2.4 percent annually during the 

intermediate and at 2.3 percent annually during the extended forecast period. Mainline carrier 

instrument activity is forecast to grow 2.3 percent annually during the intermediate forecast period 

and 2.7 percent during the extended forecast period. Commuter/air taxi activity is forecast to increase 
 

17

at a 2.6 percent annual rate during the intermediate forecast period and 1.9 percent annually over the 

extended forecast period. 

General aviation activity is projected to increase at approximately the same pace, averaging 

2.4 percent through the intermediate forecast period and 2.8 percent during the extended forecast 

period. Military activity is forecast to remain constant at the 2.9 million operations recorded in 2005. 

Commercial activity share of instrument operations is expected to grow slightly from 57.3 percent of 

total instrument activity at combined FAA and contract towers in 2005 to 57.7 percent by the year 

2030. 

C. ARTCC Aircraft Handled

The number of aircraft handled at FAA en route traffic control centers is forecast to reach 

67.7 million in 2017 and 100.4 million in 2030, an average growth rate of 3.0 and 3.1 percent for the 

intermediate and extended forecast periods, respectively. Most of the growth occurs in the number of 

commercial aircraft handled, which increases by 3.2 percent annually during both the intermediate 

and extended forecast periods. The number of mainline carrier aircraft handled increases by an average annual rate of 3.1 percent in the intermediate time period and then increases to 3.5 percent in the 

extended time period. The number of commuter/air taxi aircraft handled is forecast to increase by 

3.5 percent annually during the intermediate forecast period and 2.6 percent over the extended 

forecast period—averaging 3.0 percent over the entire 25-year period. 

The number of general aviation aircraft handled at FAA en route centers increases at similar rates 

over the two forecast periods, 3.2 and 3.3 percent annually during the respective forecast periods. 

The number of military aircraft handled is forecast to remain constant through 2030 at the 4.1 million 

recorded in 2005. 

By the end of the 25-year forecast period, commercial activity is expected to account for 77.3 percent 

of the total center activity, up from 73.9 percent in 2005. 
 

18

 TABLE 3

 LONG-RANGE FORECASTS

 FAA WORKLOAD MEASURES

(In Millions)

Actual 

March 2006 

Forecast Long Range Forecast

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tower Operations* 

Total 63.1 68.6 76.8 85.6 95.2 105.5

 Itinerant 46.8 51.0 57.6 64.6 72.0 80.0

 Air Carrier 13.5 14.9 17.0 19.5 22.3 25.6 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 12.6 13.8 15.8 17.9 20.0 22.1 

 General Aviation 19.3 20.9 23.4 25.7 28.3 30.9 

 Military 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 

Local 16.3 17.6 19.2 21.0 23.1 25.4

 General Aviation 14.8 16.1 17.7 19.6 21.7 24.0 

 Military 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 

 

 

 

Instrument Operations * 

 

Total 49.0 52.9 61.0 69.3 78.2 87.9

 Air Carrier 14.7 16.0 18.3 20.9 24.0 27.5 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 13.4 15.1 17.2 19.3 21.2 23.2 

 General Aviation 18.0 18.9 22.6 26.1 30.1 34.3 

 Military 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 

 

ARTCC Aircraft Handled 

 

Total 47.5 53.2 63.1 74.3 86.5 100.4

 Air Carrier 25.0 28.3 33.6 40.1 47.6 56.5 

 Commuter/Air Taxi 10.1 11.7 14.1 16.6 18.8 21.2 

 General Aviation 8.4 9.2 11.4 13.5 16.0 18.7 

 Military 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 

 

* Includes combined activity at FAA and contract towers. 

 Note: Totals may not add due to independent rounding.
 

19

FAA WORKLOAD FORECASTS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

OPERATIONS (mil) 

COMMERCIAL NONCOMMERCIAL

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

OPERATIONS (mil) 

COMMERCIAL NONCOMMERCIAL

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

FISCAL YEAR

OPERATIONS (mil)

COMMERCIAL NONCOMMERCIAL

TOWERED OPERATIONS INSTRUMENT OPERATIONS

IFR AIRCRAFT HANDLED