U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention

John J. Wilson, Acting Administrator

From the Administrator

While recent reductions in juvenile

crime—offenses by youth—have

generated some media coverage,

the decline in child sexual abuse—

offenses against youth—has received

far less attention. Yet, we know that

the sexual exploitation of children can

have significant impact on its victims

and even contribute to an intergenerational cycle of violence and

abuse.

Child protective services agencies

report that the increases in child

sexual abuse that marked the 1980’s

were followed by a protracted period

of substantial declines in the 1990’s.

From 1992 to 1998, for example,

substantiated cases of child sexual

abuse decreased by nearly a third.

A critical, and largely unexamined,

question is “why?” Using data from

the National Child Abuse and Neglect

Data System and other sources, this

Bulletin describes declines in both

reported and substantiated child

sexual abuse from the early 1990’s

and identifies possible factors influencing those declines. The policy

implications suggested by the decrease in child sexual abuse are also

explored.

Further research is needed to better

understand the reasons why child

sexual abuse has declined. This

Bulletin, however, will enhance our

knowledge of this noteworthy trend

and its potential causes and effects.

John J. Wilson

Acting Administrator

January 2001

The Decline in Child

Sexual Abuse Cases

Lisa Jones and David Finkelhor

Of all crimes against children, sexual

abuse has arguably captured the greatest

share of attention from child advocates,

professionals, policymakers, and the general public. During the 1980’s, increasing

numbers of victims were identified each

year (American Association for the Protection of Children, 1988) and concerns

about this crime intensified. However, a

dramatic shift in child sexual abuse

trends has occurred. Data from child protective services (CPS) agencies across

the country indicate that the increases of

the 1980’s were followed by an extensive

period of marked declines in the 1990’s.

Unfortunately, little effort has been expended to uncover the reasons why

fewer cases of child sexual abuse have

The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention (OJJDP) is committed to

improving the justice system’s response to crimes against children. OJJDP recognizes

that children are at increased risk for crime victimization. Not only are children the victims of many of the same crimes that victimize adults, they are subject to other crimes,

like child abuse and neglect, that are specific to childhood. The impact of these crimes

on young victims can be devastating, and the violent or sexual victimization of children

can often lead to an intergenerational cycle of violence and abuse. The purpose of

OJJDP’s Crimes Against Children Series is to improve and expand the Nation’s efforts

to better serve child victims by presenting the latest information about child victimization,

including analyses of crime victimization statistics, studies of child victims and their special needs, and descriptions of programs and approaches that address these needs.

been identified each year. The decline

in child sexual abuse cases is being

highlighted as a part of OJJDP’s Crimes

Against Children Series to illustrate the

importance of tracking and investigating trends in child victimization. This

Bulletin uses data from the National

Child Abuse and Neglect Data System

(NCANDS) and the Annual Fifty State

Survey conducted by Prevent Child

Abuse America to present evidence

about the decline in reported and substantiated child sexual abuse cases

since the early 1990’s. Several explanations for the decline are considered,

and corresponding policy implications

are discussed.
2

Highlights

The analysis of child sexual abuse cases

presented in this Bulletin reveals the

following:

◆ Substantiated cases of child sexual

abuse decreased from a national estimated peak of 149,800 cases in 1992 to

103,600 cases in 1998, a decline of 31

percent.

◆ A decline in substantiated cases has

occurred in the majority of States, with

no clear regional pattern. Out of 47

States with complete data, 36 recorded

a decline of more than 30 percent since

their peak year. The average decline

for all States was 37 percent.

◆ For most States, the decline was gradual,

rather than abrupt, and occurred over

several years.

◆ Although cases of other types of child

maltreatment have also declined in recent years, the decrease in child sexual

abuse cases has been more marked.

Substantiated cases of physical abuse

declined 16 percent from a 1995 peak,

compared with a 31-percent decline in

child sexual abuse cases.

◆ In addition to the decline in the number of substantiated cases, child

sexual abuse reports also decreased

from an estimated 429,000 in 1991 to

315,400 in 1998, a 26-percent decline.

◆ Possible explanations for the decline

include a real underlying decline in the

incidence of child sexual abuse or

changes in attitudes, policies, and standards that have reduced the amount of

child sexual abuse being reported and

substantiated. It is possible that both of

these processes are affecting trends in

child sexual abuse.

Substantiated Sexual

Abuse

After a 15-year increase (1977–92), national

data show that substantiated cases of

child sexual abuse have been decreasing

since about 1992. Summary data from

NCANDS indicate that cases of substantiated child sexual abuse reached an estimated peak of 149,800 in 1992, followed by

declines of 2 to 11 percent each year

through 1998, the last year for which data

are available (figure 1). In 1998, estimated

cases of child sexual abuse reached a low

of approximately 103,600.1

 This is a total

decline of 31 percent in identified child

sexual abuse cases over a 6-year period.

Figure 1: Substantiated Cases of Child Sexual Abuse, 1990–98

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Number of Cases 

(in thousands)

Year

Note: Extrapolated to the U.S. child population.

Source: Authors’ analyses of 1990–98 data (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,

1992–2000).

Figure 2: States With Major Increases and Decreases in Substantiated

Cases of Child Sexual Abuse Within Four 2-Year Periods

* Twenty percent or more.

Source: Authors’ analyses of 1990–98 data (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,

1992–2000).

The trend is not universal, but it is affecting

more and more States.2

 Between 1990 and

1992, 14 States experienced increases of 20

percent or more in substantiated cases of

child sexual abuse. Only three States recorded notable declines during the same

period (figure 2). Between 1992 and 1994,

however, 22 States experienced declines of

20 percent or more in substantiated cases of

child sexual abuse. Between 1994 and 1996,

18 States saw further declines of this magnitude. Meanwhile, the number of States recording increases of 20 percent or more had

fallen to one. From 1996 to 1998, 13 States

recorded substantial declines, while 6 recorded substantial increases. Over the

Number of States

1990–92

0

5

10

15

20

25

1992–94 1994–96 1996–98

Major* Decreases in Sexual Abuse

Substantiations

Major* Increases in Sexual Abuse

Substantiations

Time Period
3

whole period (1992–98), the majority of

States (36 out of 47 with complete data)

experienced a total decline of more than

30 percent in substantiated cases of

child sexual abuse from their peak year

to the year 1998 (figure 3). There is no

clear regional pattern to these declines,

which have occurred across all areas of

the country.

These significant declines contrast with the

period of the 1980’s, when most States experienced 10-percent annual increases in child

sexual abuse caseloads. Even as recently as

1991–92, 18 States experienced these 10-

percent increases. This trend is reflected in

the Third National Incidence Study of Child

Abuse and Neglect (NIS–3), which reported

a 125-percent rise in the incidence of child

sexual abuse from 1986 to 1993 (Sedlak and

Note: Total State decline defined by calculating change from each State’s peak year through 1998.

Source: Authors’ analyses of 1990–98 data (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,

1992–2000).

Figure 3: Declines in Substantiated Cases of Child Sexual Abuse,

by State

Figure 4: Child Sexual Abuse Reports, 1987–98

Source: Authors’ analyses of 1987–98 data (Prevent Child Abuse America, 1987–98).

Broadhurst, 1996). This study identified a

nationally representative sample of counties across the country and surveyed professionals in schools, daycare centers, hospitals, police departments, and CPS offices

about cases of observed child maltreatment. However, the NIS series, which measured incidence at only three time points

(1980, 1986, and 1993), does not offer information recent enough to detect the decline

in cases that had only begun to gather

steam in 1993.

Reports of Child

Sexual Abuse

Data presented by Prevent Child Abuse

America in their Annual Fifty State Survey indicate that reports of child sexual

abuse appear to be decreasing at a pace

equal to, if not greater than, that of the

decline in substantiated cases. The Annual Fifty State Survey (Wang and Daro,

1998) estimated that there were 223,000

reports of child sexual abuse in 1997 (figure 4). This is an overall decline of 48

percent since 1991. The most recent estimated numbers from 1998 (Wang and

Harding, 1999) show an increase in reports over 1997 but still represent an

overall decline of 26 percent since the

1991 peak.3

Comparing trends in child sexual abuse

reports with trends in substantiated cases

is important to a better understanding of

the causes of the decline in child sexual

abuse. The decline in reports suggests that

the drop in substantiated cases is at least

partly the result of fewer reports of child

sexual abuse reaching CPS agencies. Therefore, any complete understanding of the

causes must include a consideration that

either there are fewer actual incidents of

child sexual abuse available to be reported

or changes have occurred in reporting behavior for this crime.

Decline in Child Sexual

Abuse Greater Than

Decline in Physical

Abuse or Neglect

The decline in reported and substantiated cases of child sexual abuse does not

appear to be just an extension of a general declining trend in overall child maltreatment. The estimated total reports of

child maltreatment increased dramatically in the 1980’s and, though the rate of

increase has slowed, the numbers have

continued to climb through the 1990’s.4

Number of Reports

(in thousands)

Year

200

250

300

350

400

450

1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

More than 45% (18) 16–30% (7) Missing data (4)

31–45% (18) 0–15% (4)

District of

Columbia
4

However, despite increasing numbers of

reports during the 1990’s, the percentage

of reports that were child sexual abuse

allegations decreased. Sexual abuse reports dropped from 16 percent of all child

maltreatment reports in 1986 to an average

of 8 percent of reports from 1996 to 1998.

According to NCANDS data, there has

been a slight decline (9 percent) in substantiated cases of general maltreatment

during the 1990’s. Overall maltreatment

reached an estimated peak of 1,206,500

in 1992 and dropped to a low of 1,093,600

in 1998. The decline in child sexual abuse

appears to account for most of this decline. Neglect cases, which make up the

greatest proportion of CPS cases, have

declined an estimated 5 percent from a

peak in 1994. A somewhat more noticeable decline has occurred with physical

abuse cases, but this decline is half the

size and more recent than the decline in

child sexual abuse cases (figure 5). The

peak in substantiated cases of physical

abuse occurred in 1995, and there was

a 16-percent decline over the next 3

years. The largest proportion of that

decline (13 percent) occurred from 1997

to 1998. In comparison, the number of

substantiated cases of child sexual

abuse underwent a more gradual 31-

percent decline over a 6-year period

(1992–98).

Figure 5: Comparison of Trends for Substantiated Cases of Child

Physical and Sexual Abuse, 1990–98

Source: Authors’ analyses of 1990–98 data (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,

1992–2000).

Figure 6: Comparison of Trends in Substantiated Cases of Child

Physical and Sexual Abuse, 1992–98, by State

Source: Authors’ analyses of 1990–98 data (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,

1992–2000).

Across the country, an overwhelming majority of States are recording more dramatic

declines in child sexual abuse than in other

types of maltreatment. Thirty-three States

experienced greater declines in substantiated cases of child sexual abuse than in

substantiated cases of physical abuse. Thirteen of these States experienced declines in

child sexual abuse that were much greater

(more than 20 percent greater) than their

declines in physical abuse (figure 6). Only

four States, on the other hand, recorded

much greater declines in their physical

abuse cases. Just as the increase in child

sexual abuse cases in the 1980’s outpaced

that of physical abuse cases, so their decline in the 1990’s appears to be singularly

dramatic as well.

Possible Reasons for

the Decline

Several factors may explain the decline in

child sexual abuse cases. These factors

generally can be divided into two categories: (1) a real decline in child sexual

abuse or (2) changes in attitudes, policies, or standards that result in fewer reports and substantiations. Figure 7 illustrates some of the factors that could

reduce the number of reports and substantiated cases of child sexual abuse.

Although these are alternative explanations of the trend, they are not mutually

exclusive. Any or all of these processes

could be occurring simultaneously.

Substantiated Cases

(in thousands)

100

130

160

190

220

250

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Physical Abuse Sexual Abuse

Year

Missing

data (6)

Physical abuse decline

less than 20% greater (8)

Sexual abuse decline

more than 20% greater (13)

Physical abuse decline 

more than 20% greater (4)

Sexual abuse decline

less than 20% greater (20)

District of

Columbia
5

Decline in True Incidence

The most optimistic explanation is that

incidents of child sexual abuse are decreasing. A great deal of public awareness of the problem has developed in

the past 20 years. Prevention programs

that target children are widespread

(Finkelhor and Dziuba-Leatherman,

1995). A large number of offenders have

been incarcerated (Beck et al., 1993).

Many treatment programs have been

directed toward offenders to prevent

them from reoffending (Freeman-Longo

et al., 1994), and laws have been passed

in many States to improve the monitoring of sex offenders in the community

(Finn, 1997). All of these efforts could

have the cumulative effect of reducing

incidents of child sexual abuse.

Evidence that child sexual abuse has actually declined appears to be supported

by parallel declines in various social

problem indicators with possibly similar

etiological sources. For example, national

rates of female victimization by intimate

partners, rape victimization, and overall

violent crime have been declining at levels comparable to the child sexual abuse

rate over a similar period of time (figure 8). There has been a 21-percent

decline in the rate of female victimization

by intimate partners since 1993, a 60-percent decline in the rate of forcible rape

since 1991, and a 30-percent decline in the

rate of overall violent crime since 1994.

Each of these declines is likely to represent an actual decrease in incidence because they are based on the National

Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), a direct self-report survey. Factors that may

be responsible for the declines in these

crimes could also be responsible for the

declines in child sexual abuse.

Trends in child sexual abuse could be

expected to parallel trends in intimate

partner violence in particular. Both

crimes involve primarily female victims

and male perpetrators and both crimes

have been obscured because victims are

embarrassed and the crimes often occur

in private locations. The two problems

also share similar advocacy histories.

Both child sexual abuse and partner violence received similar national attention

during the 1980’s through widespread

public awareness programs, increased

prevention programs, a growth in the

variety of treatment options for offenders, and intensified efforts to report,

prosecute, and incarcerate offenders.

There may also be a connection between

the well-documented declines in the

rates of teen births (down 21 percent

since 1991) and child poverty (down 18

percent since 1993) and the decline in

child sexual abuse. Child sexual abuse

has been shown to be a significant risk

factor for, and sometimes a direct cause

of, teen pregnancy (Boyer and Fine, 1992;

Elders and Albert, 1998), so the decline

in teen births could be seen as consistent with a decline in sexual abuse. Still,

teen births could also decline for reasons completely unrelated to sexual

abuse. As for poverty, economic variables typically have been more closely

associated with rates of physical abuse

and neglect than with rates of sexual

abuse. Nonetheless, because it alleviates

despair, reduces the free time of potential perpetrators, and gives them a stake

in conformity, improvement in a family’s

economic stability may offer children

some protection from sexual abuse victimization as well. The fact that other

child welfare indicators show so much

improvement makes the possibility of a

real decline in child sexual abuse seem

more plausible.

However, while at the national level the

trends in these indicators appear similar

Figure 7: Possible Factors Influencing the Decline in Substantiated

Cases of Child Sexual Abuse

Incidence of Child Sexual Abuse

Reported Cases of Child Sexual Abuse

Investigated Cases of Child Sexual Abuse

Substantiated (Founded, Confirmed) 

Cases of Child Sexual Abuse

Prevention Incarceration Treatment of

offenders

Reduction in

causal variables

Reduced vigilance Fear of retribution

Depletion of reservoir

of older cases

More accurate

identification of

signs of sexual

abuse

Informal changes

in screening behavior

Changes in definition

of what is accepted

by agency for

investigation

Changes in policy

regarding criteria 

to substantiate

Fear of lawsuits,

backlash

More accurate

substantiation
6

Figure 8: Comparison of the Decline in Substantiated Cases of Child Sexual Abuse With Declines in Rates of

Female Victimization by Intimate Partners, Total Violent Crime, Rape Victimization, Child Poverty,

and Teen Births

* Source: Authors’ analyses of 1990–98 data (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 1992–2000).

† Source: 1993–98 NCVS data (Rennison and Welchans, 2000). Data not available for 1990, 1991, and 1992.

‡ Source: 1990–98 NCVS data (Bureau of Justice Statistics, n.d.).

§ Source: 1990–98 data (Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics, 2000).

to trends in child sexual abuse, they do

not track at the State level. Using correlational procedures, no relationships were

found at the State level between declines

in child sexual abuse and declines in rape,

violent crime, child poverty, adolescent

pregnancy, and several other child-related

indicators.5

 In other words, the States

that saw the greatest declines in child

sexual abuse were not necessarily the

States that saw the greatest declines

in these other variables. Although the

Number of Cases

Year

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

Rate per 1,000 Women

Year

93 94 95

Rate per 1,000 Persons

Year

35

40

45

50

55

Rate per 1,000 Persons

Year

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Percentage

Year

16.5

18.5

20.5

22.5

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Rate per 1,000 Females

Year

28.00

32.00

36.00

40.00

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Extrapolated Child Sexual Abuse Substantiations* Female Victimization by Intimate Partners†

Total Violent Crime‡ Rape Victimization‡

Children in Poverty§ Teen Birth Rates (Females Ages 15–17)§

96 97 98

7.00

7.75

8.50

9.25

10.00

90 91 92
7

country is recording national declines in

overall crime and general increases in

child and family well-being, it is unclear

how and whether these trends are related

to the decline in child sexual abuse.

Decline in Reporting

While the decline in reports and substantiated cases of child sexual abuse could reflect a real decline in the problem, it is also

possible that these declines are completely or partly due to factors unrelated

to the actual incidence of sexual abuse.

Only a subset of child sexual abuse cases

are actually identified and reported to a

child protective service agency each year.

A number of factors could have reduced

the number of reports being made to these

agencies, even if the yearly incidence of

sexual abuse itself had not declined.

One possibility is that reporting behaviors

have changed. For example, there could be

an increased reluctance to report child

sexual abuse because of a so-called child

abuse backlash. Some researchers who

have analyzed media coverage of child

sexual abuse have found a more skeptical

attitude toward the topic in the 1990’s

(Beckett, 1996; Myers, 1994). According to

these researchers, the dominant message

of recent publicity about child sexual

abuse has been that false allegations are

frequent, that many innocent people are

being unfairly stigmatized, and that professionals are being overly zealous in reporting possible cases of sexual abuse. Those

concerned about a backlash point to increased activity by advocacy groups who

distribute anti-CPS literature and support

legislative initiatives to increase the rights

of alleged perpetrators. As a result of this

activity, victims and their confidants may

have become more reluctant to seek help

and professionals more reluctant to report

their suspicions.

Another possibility is that the public and/

or professionals who are mandated to report possible cases of child sexual abuse

have become less vigilant about identifying cases of sexual abuse and reporting

them to CPS. There was an upsurge of public attention to this issue in the 1980’s—

given the public awareness campaigns,

notable cases of sexual abuse publicized

by the media, and the increased presence

of prevention programs in schools—

leading to more vigilant identification

and reporting of potential victims. In

the 1990’s, however, there may have

been some decline in the prominence of

this issue, resulting in reduced reports.

It would be an unfortunate occurrence if,

because of decreased attention, fewer true

victims were being identified. However, it

could also be that the public or professionals are reporting less child sexual abuse

because they are better distinguishing between actual signs of sexual abuse and

signs of other problems. For example, in the

1980’s, a diagnosis of urinary tract infection

(UTI) in a child may, by itself, have resulted

in a call to a CPS agency. However, education over the past decade has increased

awareness that a UTI in a child can have

many sources and that more evidence is

necessary to make a report of suspected

sexual abuse.

There is an additional possibility that

could reduce the number of reports of

child sexual abuse. Thirty years ago, when

public awareness campaigns and prevention programs were initiated, many victims

were identified whose experiences had

previously gone unrecognized. It is likely

that the upsurge in cases during the 1980’s

included many cases where the abuse had

occurred over a long period of time or several years prior to the report. This reservoir of longer standing cases may have

been reduced so that each year an increasing proportion of reports are recent cases

of abuse. This might appear as a decline in

total cases even if the yearly incidence of

sexual abuse remains the same.

Decline in Substantiation

of Cases

Additional explanations for the decline in

substantiated cases of child sexual abuse

include events that could be occurring after a report is made to a CPS agency. It may

be that fewer reports of sexual abuse are

being investigated or that fewer investigations are being substantiated. A reduction in the number of investigations of

Defining Child Protective Services Terminology

Term Description

Report A “report” is any allegation of child maltreatment that is made

to a child protective services (CPS) agency from sources

that include mental health personnel, medical personnel,

justice system personnel, daycare providers, family members, friends and neighbors, and victims.

Screened report A report of child maltreatment is “screened in” if the report is

followed by a decision to investigate. A decision to screen

out a report can be made if the call is determined to be misleading or if the incident does not fall under the jurisdiction

of the agency as defined by State law.

Substantiated report An investigation results in a “substantiated” report when the

allegation of maltreatment is found to be valid and is supported

by evidence under State law or policy. In different States, this

disposition is also called “determined,” “founded,” or “true.” An

unsubstantiated report is not the equivalent of a false or erroneous report. States vary as to the level of evidence needed to

substantiate an allegation of maltreatment. It is likely that many

valid reports of child maltreatment are categorized as unsubstantiated because the required level of evidence was not met.

Indicated report In addition to substantiated and unsubstantiated reports,

some States allow a finding of “indicated” following an investigation. Indicated cases are typically those in which there was

strong reason to suspect that the allegation of maltreatment

was valid, but the agency was unable to substantiate the allegation under State law or State policy (for example, because

of limited evidence or difficulty identifying the perpetrator). If

the disposition of indicated is an option, the system is described as “three-tiered.” States that allow only a disposition of

unsubstantiated or substantiated are described as having

“two-tiered” systems. When tallying total child sexual abuse

cases, NCANDS combines indicated cases with substantiated

cases for States with three-tiered systems.
8

alleged sexual abuse could be due to

changes in the type of cases CPS agencies

accept as falling within their jurisdiction.

More and more of these agencies may be

excluding certain types of cases, such as

extrafamilial child sexual abuse or abuse

that involves adolescent victims or offenders. CPS agencies may also be requiring

that more or better quality information be

available before a report is investigated.

Informal changes in screening may also

be occurring. For example, if caseloads

have been increasing, CPS workers may

begin screening out less serious cases or

may in other ways increase the threshold

for what is accepted for investigation.

Some evidence suggests that such a

change in screening does occur when

caseloads increase (Wells, Downing, and

Fluke, 1991), but it is unclear why such

a change might affect child sexual abuse

cases in particular and not other forms of

maltreatment.

Finally, there could also be changes that

affect which investigations result in substantiation. Given the criticisms that they

have experienced, CPS investigators may

have become more conservative in the

standards and criteria they use to substantiate cases. If agencies are fearful of

becoming entangled in an appeals process, they may be more cautious about

which cases they substantiate. Changes in

investigative procedures could lead to a

decline in substantiated cases. For example, many CPS agencies have added a

structured decisionmaking component to

their investigation procedures (English

and Pecora, 1994). It is possible that with

greater structure, fewer cases meet the

criteria for substantiation than would

have if the investigator had used his or

her clinical judgment. Such changes in

investigative procedures could be positive if the result is more effective and accurate judgment. More cases in which

sexual abuse did not in fact occur may be

getting screened out. On the other hand,

if valid cases of sexual abuse are now being screened out to a greater degree as a

result of changes in investigative procedures, it could mean that more children

are remaining in dangerous situations.

State Trend Analysis

It appears likely that, in at least a few

States, changes in policy and procedure

are having a noticeable effect on the child

sexual abuse trend. The authors looked

more closely at child sexual abuse trends

within each State with the hypothesis that

if the decline in substantiated cases was

the result of a policy or a programmatic

change, a substantial part of the decline

would occur over a period of a year or

two. Three patterns were identified that

depicted contrasting trends for all 47

States with available data (figure 9). These

patterns were labeled “continuous decline,” “discontinuous decline,” and “fluctuating change.” The continuous decline

pattern described States that had seen a

fairly substantial total decline in child

sexual abuse cases (25 percent or more)

over an extended period of time (at least

three yearly declines since the peak year).

However, if a State showed a particularly

large decline (33 percent or more) occurring within a single year, it was described

as showing a discontinuous decline. Finally, States that reported either a total

decline of less than 25 percent or fewer

than three yearly declines since their peak

Figure 9: Three Patterns Representing State Changes in Substantiated

Cases of Child Sexual Abuse, 1990–98

Source: Authors’ analyses of 1990–98 data (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,

1992–2000).

Continuous Decline:

◆ Twenty-six States.

◆ Overall decline from

peak at least 25

percent.

◆ Three yearly declines

since peak.

Discontinuous Decline:

◆ Thirteen States.

◆ A decrease of 33

percent or more in

one year since peak.

Fluctuating Change:

◆ Eight States.

◆ Overall decline from

peak less than 25

percent.

◆ Fewer than three

yearly declines

since peak.

Number of Cases

Year

6,000

6,600

7,200

7,800

8,400

9,000

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Number of Cases

Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Number of Cases

Year

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98

Example: Florida

Example: Wyoming

Example: North Carolina
9

Implications

Each of the potential causes of the child

sexual abuse decline has important policy

implications. If substantiated cases of

child sexual abuse are declining because

fewer children are being sexually abused,

this would be a major endorsement for the

decade-long mobilization of public policy

in this area. It would provide encouragement for those working in the field and

counter criticisms that characterize child

sexual abuse prevention initiatives as naive and futile (Berrick and Gilbert, 1991;

Melton, 1992). It would prompt careful attention to identifying which kinds of cases

were most readily being prevented and

which kinds had been most intractable.

If, by contrast, substantiated cases of child

sexual abuse are declining because of

changes in reporting or investigation standards, the implications for policy would

depend on the source of the change and the

reason for its impact on the trend. It could

be that reporters of alleged child sexual

abuse cases are being more judicious and

accurate about what they report or that

investigators are more judicious and accurate in what they substantiate. Such a finding would support the effectiveness of training and education programs directed at

mandated reporters and CPS investigators.

However, it could also be that intimidation,

negative attitudes about CPS, or increasingly stringent screening and investigation

procedures are preventing more sexually

abused children from receiving intervention

and assistance. This would be a problematic development and would require immediate policy intervention.

Ultimately, if intimidation is a factor in the

decline, policy interventions, such as proposals to revise laws governing the liability of reporters, may be required. This

scenario might also necessitate increasing

and improving the training of professionals

in identifying child sexual abuse so that,

when confronted by a case, they feel more

confident in their decision to report. If the

decline is due in part to changes in investigative standards, it would be important to

identify whether such changes were the

result of policy decisions or whether they

simply reflected idiosyncratic changes in

the attitudes of investigative staff. If there

have been changes in investigative policies

that reduce the number of children identified as victims, it would be important to

identify the basis for the changes. For example, it would be useful to know whether

such changes had been rooted in research

Percentage Declines in Substantiated Cases of Child Sexual Abuse for

States, by Pattern of Trend

Discontinuous Decline

State Decline

Arizona 89%

Arkansas 102

Georgia 68

Kansas 53

Mississippi 56

Montana 61

Nebraska 38

New Hampshire 37

New Mexico 67

New York 36

Virginia 38

Wisconsin 69

Wyoming 77

Fluctuating Change

State Decline

Alabama 22%

Connecticut 40

Delaware 0

District of Columbia 19

Maine 0

Missouri 22

North Carolina 5

Oklahoma 30

Notes: Total State decline defined by calculating change from each State’s peak year through 1998.

Unable to calculate decline for Maryland, North Dakota, Washington, and West Virginia because

extensive data were missing.

*Percentage decline calculated from peak year through 1997.

Source: Authors’ analyses of 1990–98 data (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,

1992–2000).

Continuous Decline

State Decline

Alaska 43%

California 28

Colorado 50

Florida 32

Hawaii 51

Idaho 46

Illinois 33

Indiana 33

Iowa 35

Kentucky 32

Louisiana 38

Massachusetts* 48

Michigan 43

Minnesota 39

Nevada 34

New Jersey 66

Ohio 22

Oregon 54

Pennsylvania 42

Rhode Island 53

South Carolina 62

South Dakota 62

Tennessee 32

Texas 42

Utah 28

Vermont 54

were described as showing a pattern of

fluctuating change. These States were labeled as fluctuating because most of them

saw notable periods of decline that were

then offset by years in which the number

of child sexual abuse cases increased.

The table above lists the States and their

total percentage decline in child sexual

abuse cases for each of the three trend

patterns. The discontinuous decline pattern occurred in 13 States. As hypothesized, this suggests that a policy or

program change may account for a large

percentage of the total decline in these

States. However, the trend in the majority

of States (26) followed the continuous

decline pattern of a gradual decline

occurring over several years. For these

States, it does not appear that an abrupt

policy or program change could adequately account for the decline. Instead,

it is likely that the trends in these States

are the result of more subtle changes.

Changes in caseworkers’ attitudes or a declining incidence of child sexual abuse

would, for example, affect the numbers of

sexual abuse cases at a more gradual rate.

It is also important to keep in mind that

although changes in CPS attitudes and

policy may at least partially account for

the decline in substantiated cases, these

changes alone clearly do not represent

the entire picture. The parallel decline

in reports of child sexual abuse suggests

that other factors, occurring before a

case even reaches a child protective

agency, must also be affecting the overall decline.
10

and general professional practice or had

been more reactive and politically based.

It is possible that CPS is redefining its role

in such a way that other agencies (such as

police and mental health) are taking responsibility for cases that previously fell under

the jurisdiction of CPS. If this is the case, it

would be important to identify which cases

are no longer being investigated or substantiated by CPS and to learn what is happening to the children involved in those cases.

Are nonfamilial cases of child sexual abuse

or less serious cases of child sexual abuse

being more appropriately referred? Or are

more cases falling through the cracks? Research will be necessary to provide clear

answers to these questions.

Conclusion

While the evidence demonstrates that a

dramatic decline in reports and substantiated cases of child sexual abuse has occurred, the reasons for the decline are less

clear. The available data suggest that this

decline is not simply explained by trends

in other types of maltreatment but is instead something particularly affecting

child sexual abuse cases. It could be that

the observed decline is the result of a decrease in the actual incidence of child

Using Child Protective Services Administrative Data To Examine Maltreatment Trends

The trends in reported and substantiated cases of child sexual

abuse described in this Bulletin are based on data from child

protective services (CPS) agencies. These government agencies are set up in each State to provide services to victims of

child maltreatment. CPS agencies are typically in charge of investigating reports of maltreatment (see page 7 for definitions of

CPS terminology). All States have laws that require different

classes of professionals to report any suspicion of child maltreatment. Reports by these professionals or by other community members come to the agencies’ attention locally or through

a centralized State intake process. CPS agencies investigate

those reports that seem valid and fall within their jurisdiction,

evaluate the level of evidence that maltreatment has occurred,

and decide whether or not to substantiate the reports. If a case

is substantiated, the CPS agency manages the case by providing services, arranging foster care, overseeing reunification efforts, and, ultimately, helping to decide whether parental rights

should be terminated.

CPS agencies record, with varying degrees of detail, the number

of reports of child maltreatment that come through their offices

each year, information about the allegations, the number of cases

that are substantiated, and summaries of services provided to

children. Data stored in the CPS administrative system represent

only those cases of maltreatment that come to CPS attention.

Many cases of child maltreatment never come to official attention

at all. Furthermore, most States limit the role of CPS agencies to

cases of maltreatment by caretakers. This would include investigating reports of abuse by parents and guardians, babysitters,

teachers, and other individuals who share responsibility for caring

for the child but not abuse by neighbors or acquaintances. CPS

data, therefore, do not fully track trends in extrafamilial or noncaretaker sexual assaults on children, which are typically handled

exclusively by law enforcement. Despite capturing only a certain

proportion of cases, CPS data are the best source for analyzing

national trends in child maltreatment because aggregate information is available on an annual basis.

There are, however, a number of limitations to interpreting administrative data from CPS agencies. One problem is that States

have very different methods of tallying their statistics. Some

States record reports by incident, others by family, and others by

child. For example, sexual abuse of three children in one family

could be counted as one or three substantiated cases, depending on the State. Furthermore, some States count as reports

only investigated cases of maltreatment, while others include

any allegation that comes into the system. Finally, States also

vary in the level of evidence needed to substantiate a case of

maltreatment. These differences make it difficult to compare data

between States and require that total numbers of reports or substantiated cases be interpreted cautiously. However, because the

data set collected within each State is similar from year to year,

overall trends are informative.

sexual abuse, a change in reporting behavior, and/or policy and program changes

within CPS. Although it may be difficult to

sort through the possible causes of the

decline, doing so will provide a better

gauge of efforts to protect children from

sexual victimization.

Additional research is crucial to a better

understanding of the causes of the decline

in child sexual abuse. Further analysis of

CPS administrative data could help determine the relationship between trends in

initial reports, screened reports, and substantiated reports. Analysis of changes in

the types of reporters, the ages of alleged

victims, the characteristics of alleged perpetrators, and the characteristics of the

abuse would provide information on the

types of cases that have seen the greatest

declines. Evaluation research is needed on

changes in CPS policies and procedures so

that the impact of these changes on child

victims and their families can be better understood. Finally, the issues discussed in

this Bulletin highlight the need for better

justice system data about this crime, such

as will be available when the National Incident-Based Reporting System becomes national in scope or as could be provided by a

regularly conducted population survey concerning crimes against children.

Despite the dramatic nature of the decline

in child sexual abuse cases and the importance of identifying its sources, a discussion of these issues has not yet made it to

the public arena. Greater publicity has

been given to other social indicators for

which the declines have been less dramatic. Rates of general crime, child poverty, and teen births have declined at an

equal or lesser rate than child sexual

abuse, yet these declines have received

more attention and have generated more

discussion. This Bulletin is an attempt to

direct similar attention to trends in child

sexual abuse, in the hope that increased

public attention will result in better assessment of the progress made to date in protecting children and ultimately will lead to

improved future efforts.

For Further Information

For further information, contact:

Crimes against Children Research Center

University of New Hampshire

Durham, NH 03824

603–862–1888

603–862–1122 (fax)

E-mail: lmjones@cisunix.unh.edu,

david.finkelhor@unh.edu

Internet: www.unh.edu/ccrc/
11

Notes

1. The numbers presented here are an extrapolation of data from the National Child Abuse and

Neglect Data System (NCANDS) Summary Data

Component (SDC). NCANDS actually reported

124,467 cases of substantiated child sexual

abuse in 1992, based on 49 States (including the

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico) and 99,278 cases

in 1998, based on 48 States. These totals were

extrapolated for the 50 States and the District of

Columbia based on the national child population

as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau (see discussion of NCANDS and the Annual Fifty State

Survey above).

2. Totals presented in the text of this Bulletin do

not include data from Guam, Puerto Rico, or the

Virgin Islands. Included, to the extent that the

data are available or in extrapolated totals, are all

50 States and the District of Columbia. The 50

States and the District of Columbia are referred to

as “States” throughout the paper. When information was available for fewer than the total possible

number of 51, it is clarified in the text.

3. Prevent Child Abuse America estimates the

number of reports through the following procedure: States are asked to provide the percentage

of reports received by their agencies that were

child sexual abuse allegations. Only 25–33 States

have been able to provide these statistics each

year. National reports are estimated based on the

assumption that the remaining States experience

similar proportions of reports by maltreatment

type. The percentage of reports that are child

sexual abuse allegations are averaged across the

participating States. That average is used to calculate an estimate from the total number of reports received by all States. In 1998, a total of

3,154,000 reports were made to child protective

services (CPS) agencies. Twenty-eight States

reported that an average of 10 percent of their

reports were child sexual abuse allegations. An

estimate of 315,400 reports of child sexual abuse

was therefore calculated for this year. However,

differences in the number of States submitting

data can greatly alter the estimated reports.

Wang and Harding (1999, p. 10) note that “within

the 22 States providing data for both 1997 and

1998, the percentage of child sexual abuse cases

remains consistent at 8 percent.” If an 8-percent

average were used instead of 10 percent, the

resulting estimate of child sexual abuse reports

would be 252,320. This is still an increase from

1997, but a more modest 13-percent increase

compared with the reported 41-percent increase. This example highlights the need for increased reliability and consistency in CPS

administrative data so that the pattern of child

maltreatment can be interpreted with greater

confidence.

4. Prevent Child Abuse America reported that

in 1998, the latest year for which data are available, the total number of maltreatment reports

decreased slightly from the previous year for

the first time ever (Wang and Harding, 1999).

5. For each State, the percent change from 1992

to 1998 was calculated for the following variables: child sexual abuse, forcible rape (UCR

data), aggravated assault (UCR data), child poverty, high school dropout, teen pregnancy, single

NCANDS and the Annual Fifty State Survey

Data from child protective services (CPS) agencies are collected,

summarized, and published annually by two different organizations: the Children’s Bureau and Prevent Child Abuse America.

The Children’s Bureau, located within the U.S. Department of

Health and Human Services’ Administration for Children and Families, oversees the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System

(NCANDS). The National Center on Child Abuse and Neglect established NCANDS in response to the Child Abuse Prevention and

Treatment Act (PL 93–247), which called for the creation of a coordinated, universal, national data collection program. A survey is

sent to all of the States each year requesting information from

State child welfare agencies on a number of variables related to

child maltreatment. NCANDS collects CPS data using a twopronged approach. Aggregate data on a number of key indicators

are collected through the Summary Data Component (SDC) from

all States. The first published report consisted of 1990 data (U.S.

Department of Health and Human Services, 1992). More extensive, case-level data are collected through the Detailed Case Data

Component (DCDC). Only 20 States were able to provide data for

DCDC in 1998 (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,

2000). To best capture national trends, SDC data were used in the

analyses conducted for this Bulletin.

Prevent Child Abuse America (previously the National Committee

to Prevent Child Abuse) is a private, nonprofit organization that

oversees national, State, and community programs directed at

preventing child abuse. Through its Annual Fifty State Survey, this

organization collects CPS agency data on the number and characteristics of child abuse reports and substantiations, child abuse

fatalities, and changes that have occurred in child welfare services (Wang and Harding, 1999). The survey has been conducted

each year since 1986. The data collected by Prevent Child Abuse

America are the only source of information on reports categorized

by maltreatment type and therefore the best resource for tracking

national trends in child sexual abuse reports.

One limitation of the data provided by NCANDS and the Annual

Fifty State Survey is that at least a few States are missing from the

summary each year. This means that the numbers of reports and

substantiated cases are not true national totals. For example,

NCANDS data for 1998 indicated that the total number

of substantiated child sexual abuse cases was 99,278, up 1 percent from 98,339 in 1997. But the total for 1998 is based on 48

States, while the 1997 total is based on 43 States. To control for the

differences in the number of States providing data, the numbers of

substantiated cases for each year (1990–98) have been extrapolated to account for the total U.S. population under age 18. This

brings the estimates for 1997 and 1998 to 117,000 and 103,600,

respectively, an 11-percent decline over this period. Although the

extrapolated numbers provide only a crude estimate of the actual

number of substantiated cases, they do allow a more accurate assessment of the rate of decline in child sexual abuse cases over

the years.

parent households, teen suicide, and parent unemployment. Correlations between child sexual

abuse and all other variables were small (r<0.12)

and nonsignificant.

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Acknowledgments

This Bulletin was prepared by Lisa M. Jones, Ph.D., Research Fellow, Crimes

against Children Research Center, University of New Hampshire; and David

Finkelhor, Ph.D., Professor of Sociology, and Director, Crimes against Children

Research Center, University of New Hampshire.

This Bulletin was prepared under grant

number 98–JN–FX–0012 from the Office of

Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention,

U.S. Department of Justice.

Points of view or opinions expressed in this

document are those of the author(s) and do

not necessarily represent the official position

or policies of OJJDP or the U.S. Department of

Justice.

The Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention is a component of the Office of Justice Programs, which also includes

the Bureau of Justice Assistance, the Bureau

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