6-17

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

would run from the platform and transverse State

Lease PRC 2991.1 to and landfall through the the existing Exxon SYU pipeline crossings and corridor. New

pipelines would be run to Las Flores Canyon. Production from the platform would be processed at Las

Flores Canyon using existing capacity and the oil

shipped in the All American Pipeline, now owned by

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. The gas would be

processed at the Exxon Gas Plant using existing capacity and sold to the Gas Company. The produced

water would be treated at the existing water treatment plant at Las Flores Canyon, transported offshore

by pipeline and disposed of at the Gato Canyon Unit

Platform. The platform is assumed to be electrified

and two power cables would be run to the platform

from the existing co-generation facility located in Las

Flores Canyon.

PIPELINE AND POWER CABLE

INSTALLATION

We assume that the pipelines between platforms

and platforms to the landfalls (Gato Canyon Unit and

Northern Santa Maria Basin) are accomplished with

a pipeline lay barge with one pass per pipeline. The

number of passes with the lay barge is dependent on

the number of pipelines between the inter-connecting

platforms and the platform to shore pipelines. The

number of pipelines between the platforms is three

for Bonito Unit to Irene, three for Gato Canyon Unit

to shore and four for NSMB development, both between the platforms and between SMB “B” and shore.

Installation of power cables would be completed by

reeling the power cable off a power cable vessel into

the same corridors as the pipelines. The power cables

are connected to the platforms by pulling them

through J-tubes at the platform.

CAVERN POINT UNIT DEVELOPMENT

The Cavern Point Unit includes Leases OCS-P

0210 and 0527 north of Santa Rosa Island in the Santa

Barbara Channel. Eleven development wells, 10 oil

wells and 1 service wells, would be drilled from Platform Gail. The wells would be extended-reach wells

with horizontal displacements of 6.4-8.3 km (3.5-4.5

miles). Drilling each well would require 3 to 4 months

beginning in 2003. The service would be drilled into the

Sockeye Field and would not be an extended reach well.

The oil and gas would be sent to the Carpenteria

onshore processing facility via Platform Grace using

existing pipelines. The gas sent to shore would be sour

and that there would be limited processing offshore.

The oil and gas would be processed using existing capacity. Produced water is injected or disposed overboard.

6.2 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF

DEVELOPMENT OF THE 36

UNDEVELOPED LEASES

6.2.1 CUMULATIVE AIR QUALITY

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

Section 6.1 describes the assumptions and lists

the projects considered in the cumulative air quality

analysis. Cumulative air emission data and assumptions are further documented in Appendix 5.4. The

EIS analyzes cumulative impacts in two different time

periods: 2002-2006 and 2002-2030. All of the cumulative projects and activities occur in the South Central

Coast Air Basin composed of San Luis Obispo, Santa

Barbara and Ventura Counties. For this analysis, it is

assumed that due to the prevailing onshore wind conditions, the geographic scope for cumulative air quality impacts will be those projects or actions that exist

or are pending or approved in the Santa Maria Basin

and central Santa Barbara Channel and Southern

Santa Barbara County. Major sources of cumulative

air quality impacts include emissions from on-going

oil and gas activities in Federal and State waters, proposed oil and gas activities, natural petroleum seeps,

and offshore shipping and tankering operations.

Section 5.2.1 discuss the major impacting agents

associated with past, present and foreseeable activities, including the proposed activities, that result in

cumulative contributions to regional air quality during the expected duration of the proposed delineation

activities (2002-2006). These include emissions from

proposed oil and gas projects, existing oil and gas activities, natural petroleum seeps, and marine shipping

and tankering.

The projects discussed in this section include

past, present and reasonably foreseeable actions that

may produce impacts during the period that the development of the 36 undeveloped leases would likely

occur. The temporal period used for this analysis is

the years 2002-2030. Two separate scenarios will be

evaluated for potential cumulative effects on regional

air quality. The first analysis will discuss the cumulative air impacts expected without the development of

the 36 undeveloped leases. The second analysis will

evaluate the incremental contribution to cumulative

air quality impacts associated with the expected development of the leases.

CUMULATIVE AIR QUALITY IMPACTS

WITHOUT DEVELOPMENT OF THE 36

UNDEVELOPED LEASES

It is assumed that without development of the

36 undeveloped leases, no new production platforms
6-18

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

or pipelines would be installed during the period 2002-

2030. Therefore, the primary sources of air quality

impacts expected during this time period would occur

from the continued production phase of the existing

15 production platforms located within the geographical scope of this project, natural petroleum seeps,

marine shipping and tankering, and the eventual decommissioning of older oil and gas facilities.

Existing Platforms Production Phase. There are

presently 15 OCS platforms located within the geographical scope of this analysis which have ongoing

development and production operations. The existing platforms are assumed to be in a normal operating mode for the life of the analysis. Production activities are assumed to continue on all existing, active

platforms, with projected future well drilling estimates

presented in Table 5.1.2.2-1.

Air quality impacts of the OCS platforms to the

Santa Barbara area have been discussed above. The

existing platforms are all within the jurisdiction of

the SBCAPCD and all have current Permits to Operate. The existing facilities have been in full compliance with SBCAPCD Rules and Regulations since

September 4, 1994, and any new or modified emission

source will be subject to NSR requirements. As discussed in Section 5.2.1.2.1, total NOx emissions attributable to OCS oil and gas activities represent approximately 6.4% of the annual OCS emission inventory. That level is expected to decline in the future

due to the decline of recoverable oil and gas resources

experienced in the OCS. Therefore, the continued

operation of the existing OCS oil and gas facilities are

expected to remain in compliance with air regulations

to ensure that no violations of the ambient air standards or interference with expeditious attainment of

the standards occur.

Facility Decommissioning. Offshore oil and gas

facility decommissioning activities include the removal

of all wells, platform topsides and jackets, and associated pipelines and power cables. These construction

activities are of short duration and involve combustion intensive equipment such as lift barges with ancillary construction equipment and marine vessels.

Projected dates for the decommissioning of OCS

facilities is largely speculative at this time. The Point

Arguello platforms (Harvest, Hermosa, Hidalgo) are

projected to be decommissioned sometime between

2015-2020. Platform Irene is projected to be decommissioned sometime between 2020-2025 and may be

extended depending on the successful development of

the Tranquillon Ridge Field to 2030-2035. The remaining platforms have been projected to be decommissioned somewhere in the 2012-2025 time frame.

Emission estimates for these future OCS infrastructure decommissioning activities have not been calculated due to their speculative nature at this time.

It is expected that the SBCAPCD will require

permits for the decommissioning operations to ensure

the projects do not result in violations of the ambient

air standards. SBCAPCD Rule 202.F.3 exempts from

permit requirements internal combustion engines

used in construction activities that result in less than

25 tons of any pollutant in a 12 month period. Additionally, California Health & Safety Code provides an

emission offset exemption related to the decommissioning of OCS facilities. H&S 42301.13(a) (Offset

Requirements; Demolition/Removal/Relocation)

states; notwithstanding any other provision of law, a

district shall not require, as part of its permit system

or otherwise, that any form of emission offset or emission credit be provided to offset emissions resulting

from any activity related to, or involved in, the demolition or removal of a stationary source. Therefore, it

is expected that future OCS facility decommissioning

activities will require permitting and compliance with

Santa Barbara APCD Rules and Regulations and will

be designed to minimize regional air quality impacts.

Marine Shipping and Tankering. Air quality

impacts associated with marine shipping and

tankering in the Santa Barbara Channel have been

discussed in Section 5.2.1.2.1 above. As previously

discussed, the most recent Santa Barbara CAP calculates that approximately 96% of the OCS NOx emissions inventory is attributable to shipping and commercial vessels, and 97% of the particulate matter

emissions. It is expected that the cumulative air quality impact of marine shipping and tankering will continue to be the most significant contributor to cumulative air quality in the OCS for the period 2002-2030.

As emissions from U.S. and foreign flagged marine

vessels traversing the Santa Barbara Channel are not

regulated by federal, state or local air authorities,

emissions will be assumed to remain at existing levels. However, as OCS emissions attributable to oil

and gas operations are projected to decline over the

2002-2030 time period of this analysis, the proportion

of total Santa Barbara County offshore emissions attributable to marine tankering and shipping operations is expected to increase.

INCREMENTAL AIR QUALITY IMPACTS OF

DEVELOPMENT OF THE 36 UNDEVELOPED

LEASES

The analyses will utilize a building block approach based on the sequential phases of offshore oil

and gas development. It is assumed that the delineation phase of the proposed actions has been addressed

in previous sections and the temporal overlap of those

operations does not coincide with the eventual development of the 36 undeveloped leases. The impacting

agents are the same as those discussed in the previous sections and will build upon the hypothetical development scenarios for the construction, development,
6-19

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

production and abandonment phases of oil and gas

development of the 36 undeveloped leases as provided

in the project descriptions. Potential cumulative impacts are discussed below.

Platform Installation. Offshore platforms are

specifically constructed to account for such factors as

water depth, sea floor characteristics and storage capacity. Fabrication of the platforms take place onshore

at locations far removed from the area of emplacement and those emissions will not be considered in

this analysis. A generic approach was utilized for this

analysis as exact locations and commensurate physical characteristics are not known at this time for the

proposed platform emplacements. Projected platforms

include 3 platforms to develop the Santa Maria Basin

Units, 1 platform on the Bonito Unit, and 1 platform

on the Gato Canyon Unit. Emission estimates for platform installation were obtained from estimates used

for proposed OCS Lease Sale No. 95 (Jacobs, 1989)

and applied to the proposed development scenario.

The jackets and deck modules are fabricated

onshore and towed to the offshore site. Once on location, the jacket is sunk to the sea bottom and secured

to the sea floor by pilings. The topsides and components are then attached to the jacket. The primary

impacting agents to air quality associated with platform installation are emissions resulting from derrick

barges used to lift and secure the jacket and topsides,

combustion equipment used to secure components,

and support vessels used to tow the infrastructure to

the site and support installation.

The derrick barge generator is typically the primary power source used to operate platform installation equipment for both the jacket and topsides installation activities. For assumption purposes, Jacobs

assigned the total platform construction power requirement to the derrick barge generator to eliminate

the variability of the size and number of individual

pieces of equipment that could be used. Support vessels including tugboats, supply boats and crew were

estimated and included in the overall platform installation emission estimates.

Platform installation activities are projected to

occur during the 2007-2009 timeframe. Jacket launch

dates are projected for Gato Canyon (2nd quarter, 2007),

Central Santa Maria Basin (4th quarter, 2007), Northern Santa Maria Basin (1st quarter, 2008), Southern

Santa Maria Basin (2nd quarter, 2008), and Bonito (4th

quarter, 2008). Pile driving and topside installation

activities are set to follow the individual jacket

launches and will average between 3-6 months per

facility. Emission estimates for platform installation

is provided in Table 6.2.1-1.

Offshore Pipeline Installation. Pipeline laying

techniques depend on multiple factors including pipe

length and diameter, water depth and sea floor conditions. Pipeline installation activities are projected to

commence following the installation of the topsides.

The primary impacting agents to air quality associated with pipeline installation are emissions resulting from the lay barge, ancillary equipment used in

welding the pipe, marine vessels used in movement of

the lay barge and support vessels. The number of

pipelines estimated between platforms is 3 from Bonito to Irene, 3 for Gato Canyon Unit to shore and 4

for the entire Santa Maria Basin platforms. Estimated

dates for installing pipelines are Gato Canyon Unit

(4th quarter, 2007), Santa Maria Basin (2nd quarter,

2008), and Bonito Unit (2nd quarter, 2009). Each individual Unit pipeline construction is projected to last

approximately 3 months.

For this analysis, it is assumed that the pipelines would be installed using a lay barge. It is assumed that the pipelines will be laid at an average

rate of 0.25 miles per day. Emission estimates for pipeline installation were obtained from estimates used

for proposed OCS Lease Sale No. 95 (Jacobs, 1989)

and applied to the proposed development scenario to

Table 6.2.1-1. Total projected emissions by source.

Total Cumulative Emissions With Development of 36 Leases 

(tons over the period 2002-2030)

Activity NOx CO SOx VOC PM10 

Delineation Wells 125.5 31.3 3.1 17.8 8.3 

Platform Construct 877.6 208.0 60.0 64.3 14.1 

Pipeline Install 801.3 322.2 16.7 92.1 39.7 

Power Cable Install 141.9 29.9 7.5 4.0 10.0 

Development Wells 644.4 305.9 95.9 88.7 94.1 

Production 19,811.3 10,432.8 3,858.5 14,804.6 1,512.5 

Spills 0 0 0 7.8 0 

Service Vessels 151.7 15.3 2.0 6.9 8.8 

Helicopters 54.4 129.0 10.9 9.4 12.4 

 Total 22,608.1 11,474.4 4,054.6 15,095.6 1,699.9 
6-20

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

determine peak year and total emissions. Emission

estimates for pipeline installation is presented in Table

6.2.1-1.

Offshore Power Cable Installation. All the projected platforms are assumed to be electrified and will

require power cables from shore or adjacent electrified platforms. Power cable installation would be completed by reeling the power cable off a power cable

vessel into the same corridors as the pipelines. The

power cables are then connected to the platforms by

pulling them through J-tubes at the platform.

Power cable laying operations are scheduled to

occur for Gato Canyon Unit (4th quarter, 2007), Santa

Maria Basin (2nd quarter, 2008), and Bonito Unit (2nd

quarter, 2009). Each individual power cable laying

activity will last approximately 2 months. Emission

rates for cable laying operations were obtained from

the 1991 SBCAPCD Authority to Construct for the

SYU topsides project. Emission estimates for power

cable installation is presented in Table 6.2.1-1.

Production Phase. The production phase is considered the longest emission phase of all oil and gas

development activities. The production phase considered for these projects will be approximately 15 years.

Emission sources during this phase primarily include

turbines, flares, support vessels, fugitive hydrocarbon

sources, cranes and other sources.

Production phase emissions are generally proportional to the recoverable resources to be produced,

and typically generate the maximum emissions during the peak production year. Initial production is

projected for Gato Canyon Unit in 2008, the Santa

Maria Basin Units in 2009, and Bonito Unit in 2010.

Peak production year for Gato Canyon is 2013, Bonito Unit is 2015, Northern Santa Maria Basin is 2016,

and Central and Southern Santa Maria Basin is 2017.

Emission estimates for the production phase

were obtained by averaging oil and gas production

related emissions from the 1996 Santa Barbara OCS

Emission Inventory to a per platform average. These

averages were applied to the 15 existing and 5 proposed platforms for the period 2002-2030 time period

to determine peak year and total emissions. For conservative estimates, the production emission estimates

were considered to be constant over the projected life

of the project and were not based on projected production and peak production year estimates. Emission estimates for production phase emissions is presented in Table 6.2.1-1.

Facility Decommissioning. Offshore oil and gas

facility decommissioning activities include the removal

of all wells, platform topsides and jackets, and associated pipelines and power cables. These construction

activities are of short duration and involve combustion intensive equipment such as lift barges with ancillary construction equipment and marine vessels.

Decommissioning dates for the proposed facilities are based on a 15-year production life. Estimated

removal dates for the Gato Canyon Unit is scheduled

between 2023-2028, Santa Maria Basin between 2024-

2029, and Bonito Unit between 2025-2030. The projected dates for the most likely removal of these proposed facilities occur several years after projected decommissioning dates for the existing platforms. Emission estimates for these future OCS facility removal

activities have not been calculated due to their speculative nature at this time. However, emissions associated with decommissioning the proposed facilities are

not expected to overlap with removal activities for the

existing platforms and are therefore not expected to

result in cumulative air quality impacts.

Oil Spills. As discussed in the oil spill section,

the cumulative oil spill risk for the project area may

result from several sources including existing OCS and

state oil and gas facilities, proposed delineation and

development projects in OCS and state waters, and

tankering of Alaskan and foreign-import oil through

area waters.

A number of processes that alter the chemical

and physical characteristics of the original hydrocarbon mixture occur when oil is spilled into the ocean.

This weathering of the oil, together with atmospheric

and oceanographic conditions, determines the time that

the oil remains on the surface of the water and the

characteristics of the oil at the time of contact with

the particular resource. A primary agent in the weathering process is the evaporation of volatile hydrocarbons into the atmosphere.

Air quality impacts from spills would be dependent on a variety of factors including location, meteorological conditions at the time of the spill, and duration of the spill. Air pollutant concentrations reaching shore will generally be lower than at the site of

the spill due to dispersion with distance over water.

Additionally, the spill emissions would be expected to

decrease with time and become more diffuse as the

spill spreads over a larger area.

The most likely oil spill scenario for the proposed

development projects is that one or more oil spills in

the 50-1,000 bbl range would occur from offshore oil

and gas activities over the life of the project (2002-

2030), and that such a spill would be 200 bbl or less in

volume. The maximum reasonably foreseeable oil spill

volume from all offshore oil and gas activities would

be a 2,000 bbl pipeline spill. Based on data from tanker

spills in U.S. waters, the mean size of a tanker spill is

assumed to be 22,800 bbl.

It is assumed that an oil spill of 200 bbl would

likely occur during the life of the project. Information from OCS accidents indicate that the majority of

the aromatic compounds will be lost to volatilization

within 24 to 48 hours, with a high percentage evaporating within the first hours of the spill (Jordan and
6-21

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

Payne, 1980). Thus, it is assumed that oil spills would

result in low, short-term impacts to onshore air quality due to the size of the projected spill, the rapid volatilization of the hydrocarbons, the short duration and

localized nature offshore away from urban areas.

Emission estimates for the most likely 200 bbl oil spill

is presented in Table 6.2.1-1.

The most likely maximum size of an oil spill from

future oil and gas development is estimated to be a

2,000 bbl pipeline spill as stated above. A 2,000 bbl

spill will have a more serious impact on regional air

quality due to the larger volume and overall surface

area of the spill. The location of the spill nearer to

onshore areas may expose sensitive receptors to a

greater short-term risk than if the spill was located

further offshore. However, the hydrocarbon concentrations expected from the maximum 2,000 bbl spill

would be considered to result in low short-term air

quality impacts due to the rapid volatilization of the

hydrocarbons and dispersion with distance from shore.

The air quality effects of a 22,800 bbl tanker spill

on the project area would produce the largest concentration of emissions of the three oil spill scenarios

evaluated. The short-term air quality impacts would

be expected to diminish within days of the spill due to

the rapid volatilization of the light end hydrocarbons

and oil weathering processes. Though a marine tanker

spill would result in a much greater magnitude of hydrocarbons exposed to the atmosphere, the location

of such a spill is expected to be far from nearshore

areas with their greater susceptibility to health effects.

Oil tankers offshore of southern California voluntarily transit the coast north of Point Conception at distances of 90 km (50nm) or more offshore. Therefore,

the concentration of hydrocarbon emissions reaching

sensitive onshore areas will generally be low due to

dispersion of the emissions with distance over water

and that oil spill emissions decrease with time and

become more diffuse as the spill spreads over a larger

area with time.

Summary. The total OCS emissions projected

from the development of the 36 undeveloped leases

for the period 2002-2030 is presented by activity in

Table 6.2.1-1. The emission potentials demonstrate

that the largest contributor to regional air quality

impacts occur during the platform production stage

of development accounting for over 90% of the emissions over this time period. These emissions are

spread out over the 15 existing and 5 proposed facilities in the Santa Maria Basin and the Santa Barbara

Channel over the next quarter of a century and may

be considered as the long-term effects of OCS oil and

gas development.

CUMULATIVE AIR QUALITY MODELING

ANALYSIS

Modeling runs utilizing the Offshore and Coastal

Dispersion (OCD) model were conducted to determine

the potential cumulative air quality impacts to onshore

areas. Due to the compressed nature of the platform

installation activities, including pipeline and power

cable installation, there is expected to be considerable temporal and spatial overlap resulting in elevated

cumulative emissions for the period 2007-2008. Therefore, peak year emissions for the projected development have been estimated to occur during 2008. Peak

year and peak hour emissions are presented in Table

6.2.1-2.

Peak hour emissions for the year 2008 were utilized to provide a conservative estimate of the potential for regional air quality impacts resulting from the

development of the 36 leases. Emissions associated

with the proposed exploratory projects do not overlap

temporally or spatially with the emissions potential

projected for 2008 and therefore do not contribute any

increment to peak year cumulative air quality impacts.

Thus, cumulative air quality modeling for the development of the 36 undeveloped leases is solely based

on hypothetical development assumptions and does

not reflect any contribution from the proposed

projects. The peak emissions provide the most conservative estimates to predict potential impacts to

onshore air quality from the hypothetical development

of the 36 undeveloped leases.

The modeled concentrations demonstrate that

the cumulative development scenario emissions exceed the 1 hour maximum increment range established

by the SBCAPCD for NOx allowable limits for a Class

II area. Concentrations of SO2

 are well below allowable increases and PM10, 24 hour concentrations marginally exceed the allowable increment. It should be

noted that ambient PM10 background levels in Santa

Barbara County are above the allowable increments

set by SBCAPCD.

 The most recent validated ambient air concentrations were obtained from the SBCAPCD and added

to the incremental concentrations predicted by the

OCD model for a comparison against Federal and State

ambient air quality standards. The EPA screening

approach of using the national default of an NO2

 /NOx

ratio of 0.75 was applied to the predicted concentrations to account for the atmospheric conversion of NO

to NO2. As the ambient standards apply only to NO2,

a conversion factor of NO to NO2 must be applied. The

1-hour NO2 standard of 470 m/m3is approached (460

m/m3) but not exceeded for the near-shore pipeline

installation portion of the project as the pipeline installation approaches the surf zone. The comparison

indicates that increases in the onshore average concentrations of NO2

, SO2 and PM10 from the proposed
6-22

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

development projects are estimated to be less than the

maximum increases allowed under both the Federal

and State standards. Table 6.2.1-3 presents the modeled concentrations per pollutant in relation to maximum allowable increases and federal and state ambient air quality standards.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS (2002 – 2030)

Without development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, regional air impacts during the period 2002-

2030 are assumed to result from ongoing oil and gas

activities, marine shipping and tankering operations

and the eventual decommissioning of the existing offshore facilities. The largest contributor to OCS air

quality will continue to be marine shipping and

tankering with incremental contributions from facility decommissioning exhibited in the later years. OCS

emissions attributable to existing oil and gas operations are projected to decline over the 2002-2030 time

period of this analysis.

The largest contributor to short-term air quality impacts result from platform and pipeline installation activities during the years 2007-2009. The

worst-case scenario emissions are predicted during the

near-shore pipeline installation activities and are expected to be limited in duration to very short time

frame. Emissions associated with the proposed exploratory projects do not overlap temporally or spatially with the cumulative peak year emissions projected for 2008 and therefore do not contribute any

increment to peak year emissions.

All of the projected development projects are

expected to be above NSR threshold emission levels

for BACT, emission offsets and air quality impact

analyses and will be required to comply with those

provisions in SBCAPCD Rules and Regulations. Any

project and emission sources eventually determined

to be subject to SBCAPCD permit requirements will

be subject to BACT and be fully offset at a greater

than a 1:1 ratio and will result in a net air quality

benefit to Santa Barbara County in accordance with

SBCAPCD Rules and Regulations. However, future

year emission offsets may be problematic based on the

limited present day availability of offsets and the requirement that all new or modified projects have an

air quality benefit per NSR requirements.

Anticipated air quality impacts from the three

oil spill scenarios are expected to be rare, of short

duration, and very localized. Ambient air concentrations resulting from oil spills are expected to result in

low to moderate, short-term impacts to regional air

quality dependent upon the location and duration of

the spill, and meteorological conditions exhibited at

the time affecting the evaporation rate of the hydrocarbons.

Given the current trends in air quality and the

regulatory mandate for nonattainment areas to come

into attainment of the air quality standards as expeditiously as possible, it is expected that Santa Barbara County will be considered in attainment for the

federal and state ambient air quality standards by the

time these eventual development projects are expected

to commence. These projects would then be considered in relation to the regulations enforce at the time,

with Santa Barbara County being considered a maintenance area for air quality and no longer a

nonattainment area as the proposed projects have been

evaluated. Thus, future permitting and compliance

of these projects would most likely be subject to Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) standards,

and emission threshold requirements designed to ensure the continued protection of air attainment areas.

Table 6.2.1-2. Peak year cumulative emissions.

Peak Year Cumulative Emissions With Development of 36 Leases 

(2008)

Activity NOx CO SOx VOC PM10 

Platform Construct 497.3 117.9 34.0 36.5 36.7 

Pipeline Install 649.4 260.8 13.6 74.6 64.4 

Power Cable Install 88.1 18.6 4.7 2.5 6.2 

Development Wells 21.4 10.1 3.2 2.9 3.1 

Production 717.8 378.0 139.8 536.4 54.8 

Spills 0 0 0 7.84 0 

Service Vessels 6.07 0.61 0.08 0.28 0.35 

Helicopters 2.18 5.16 0.44 0.38 0.49 

 Total (tons) 1,982.25 791.17 195.82 661.4 166.04 

 Peak Hour (lbs) 452.57 180.63 44.71 151.00 37.90 
6-23

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

Table 6.2.1-3. Maximum predicted onshore pollutant concentrations.

The hypothetical nature of the full development

of the 36 undeveloped leases over the next 25 years

most probably results in a low confidence for the prediction of regional air quality impacts. The assumptions utilized for the estimating of peak hour, peak

year and total emissions provided in previous sections

are the best information available and are conservative estimates of the overall emission potential for

these projects. Should the proposed delineation

projects prove successful, eventual development of the

Units will be subject to a more comprehensive and

less speculative review during the mandated environmental impact analysis of the respective Development

and Production Plans (DPP). The supporting technical and environmental information required in the

DPPs shall provide for a more definitive evaluation of

the associated air quality impacts expected with the

development of the 36 undeveloped leases.

Maximum Predicted Cumulative Onshore Pollutant Concentrations 

(micrograms per cubic meter (g/m3

) 

Pollutant Averaging 

Period 

Class II 

Maximum 

Allowable 

Increase 

Ambient 

Air Quality 

Standard 

Santa Barbara 

Maximum 

Background 

Concentration3

Model 

Concentration 

Total Pollutant 

Concentration 

NO2 1-hour 100-4701

 4702 58 402 460 

 Annual 

Average 

25.0 100 26 1.9 27.9 

PM10 24-hour 

Average 

12-30 150 45.2 13.1 58.3 

 Annual 

Average 

17.0 50 30.9 0.24 31.14 

SO2 1-hour 

Average 

NS 6554

 10.44 10.8 15.84 

3-hour 

Average 

512.0 1300 7.8 8.0 15.8 

 24-hour 

Average 

91.0 365 2.6 2.9 5.5 

 Annual 

Average 

20.0 80 5.0 0.07 5.07 

1. Santa Barbara APCD incremental limit. 

2. State of California ambient standard. 

3. Vandenberg (south) 1999 ambient data (Provided by SBCAPCD) 

4. State Standard. No National Standard.
6-24

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

6.2.2 CUMULATIVE WATER QUALITY

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

Cumulative Impacts Without Development of the

36 undeveloped leases (2002-2030). The following

analysis is based on the assumption that the proposed

exploratory activities will lead to development, including installation of up to 5 platforms and associated

pipelines. This section examines:

• The cumulative impacts to water quality without the development of the 36 leases in the

period 2002 to 2030;

• The additional cumulative impacts to water

quality from development of the 36 leases in

the period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.2 for a discussion of effects

from the proposed action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in Section 5.2.2.

The potential sources of impacts to water quality without development of the MODU undeveloped

leases include the following:

• Offshore oil and gas development and production and other activities, including:

• Pacific Offshore Operators, Inc. (POOI) Federal/State development;

• Full-field development of the South Ellwood

Field;

• Tranquillon Ridge Unit development;

• Oil spills from facilities and pipelines;

• Decommissioning activities.

• Non-OCS oil and gas activities including:

• Municipal and industrial wastewater discharges;

• River runoff and other nonpoint sources;

• Oil spills from non-OCS tankering activities.

OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS

For offshore oil and gas development and production activities such water quality-related impacting agents would include, turbidity not associated with

drilling activities, drilling discharges, produced water, and other effluents. These are discussed below.

Turbidity. Of the potential impacting agents listed

above, only decommissioning activities would cause

turbidity in the water column due to anchors from the

derrick barge vessel used to conduct most of the decommissioning activities. As discussed in section

5.2.2.1 (table 5.2.2.1-1), anchoring activities can cause

increases in turbidity but only for a limited time and

for a limited extent into the water column (from the

bottom up, as opposed to the top down) and not into

the photic zone. Thus, only negligible impacts to water quality are expected from decommissioning activities.

Drilling Discharges. Drilling muds and cuttings

impacts to water quality were discussed extensively

in sections 5.2.2.1 and 5.2.2.2. Only the first three

projects listed above would entail the discharge of drilling muds and cuttings. Impacts to water quality would

be no different from those described in the previous

sections. That is, a low impact to the water quality,

including the resuspension of drilling muds, turbidity, and effects of metals and additives. In addition,

there are indications from the California State Lands

Commission that for those projects that include the

accessing of oil under state tide lands, even if the point

of drilling discharges is in Federal waters, no discharge

of drilling muds and cuttings would be allowed. This

could be the case for all three of the development and

production projects, above. In that event, no impacts

to water quality would arise from those projects.

Produced water. While no produced water is anticipated to be discharged during the proposed delineation drilling, produced water from existing and future offshore oil and gas facilities may have an effect

on water quality. Materials such as oil and grease and

other hydrocarbons (for example, benzene, toluene,

xylene, phenol, naphthalene, and compounds of similar structure), metals, including arsenic, cadmium,

chromium, lead, mercury, nickel, silver and zinc, and

some inorganic compounds, such as sulfides and cyanides may be present in produced waters.

Produced water discharges are regulated under

the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System

(NPDES) regulations under the purview of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The effluent is

treated prior to discharge by various means. The most

common treatment system used involves a combination of heat, chemicals (for example, emulsion breakers) and the use of mechanical forces (such as corrugated plates, bubbling air, etc.). Since NPDES permits allow some dissolved components of oil to remain

in the effluent (currently ranging in the Pacific OCS

Region from 29 to 72 ppm) some amount of oil is discharged into the sea with this effluent.

The National Research Council (NRC, 1985)

used estimates of the amount of oil dissolved in produced water effluents and multiplied by the amount of

produced water discharged for the United States as a
6-25

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

whole. The authors gave three levels of dissolved oil

in produced water: 35 ppm, 50 ppm, and 70 ppm (due

to a range of NPDES permit limits). The resulting

annual, U. S.-wide, amount of oil discharged into the

sea per year from produced water effluents were 10,900

bbl (30 ppm); 15,600 bbl (50 ppm); and 21,800 bbl (70

ppm); no estimate was given for MMS OCS Regions.

For the decade from 1989 to 1998, a spreadsheet

compiled by MMS (Dave Panzer, MMS, pers. comm.,

2001) indicated that a range of 615.5 bbl (30 ppm),

1,025.9 bbl (50 ppm); and 1,477 bbl (72 ppm) were

estimated to have been discharged into the Pacific OCS

waters. All of these estimates are high because not

all of the currently-discharging 13 platforms discharged produced water for the entire decade. Table

6.2.2-1 shows the number of platforms in the Pacific

OCS Region and how many discharged produced water. Also, the NPDES permit limit for oil and grease

is given. As the table shows, 8 platforms discharged

produced water for the entire decade, while others

discharged for fewer years. Of a total of 160 possible

platform-years (16 discharging platform times 10

years) of discharging produced water, 129 platformyears of produced water was actually discharged, or a

factor of 80 percent of the total possible platform-years

(129/160). Modifying the values given above by a factor of 80 percent results in barrels of oil discharged in

the produced water effluent by all platforms in the

Pacific OCS Region of 492 bbl (30 ppm); 820.7 bbl (50

ppm) and 1,182.7 bbl (72 ppm). To reiterate, this is

the estimated amount of dissolved oil discharged into

Pacific OCS water for the decade from 1989 to 1998.

It would be inaccurate to estimate the amount of oil

discharged into the sea from produced water effluent

by year since the number and identity of the platforms

changed throughout the period, including the amount

of oil and grease allowed in any particular platform’s

NPDES permit.

All of the components in produced water, except

the temperature of the discharge in most cases, are

high relative to the ambient characteristics of the receiving water. All of these aspects, thus, could affect

or change the water quality. However, EPA allows

dilution of the regulated components of the effluent

(except oil and grease) to a 100-m (320 ft) radius, at

which point the effluent must meet the permit limits.

The calculated dilution ratio for many platforms range

from about 500:1 to nearly 2,000:1. This means that

any value of a monitored produced water parameter

sampled at the NPDES sampling point on the platform will be divided by 500 to 2,000 to determine compliance with the permit. While this does not ameliorate any of the affects, noted above, within 100 m (320

ft) of the discharge point, it does help to ensure that

water quality limits are not exceeded beyond 100 m

(320 ft) from the platform.

The above discussion notwithstanding, a few

studies on produced water have shown that, while

changes in water quality parameters may not be detectable, some results have suggested that processes

may occur that may be more far-reaching than EPA’s

100-meter (320 ft) regulatory limit. For example:

• Osenberg, et al. (1992) found that mussel tissue growth increased with increasing distance

from the Carpinteria produced water outfall1.

This trend was noted out to at least 500 m

(1,600 ft).

• Osenberg et al. (1992) also found that barium

uptake in the shells of outplanted mussels generally decreased with distance from the outfall. This data was somewhat confounded since

for some data collections, for unknown reasons, there was no clear trend with distance.

This was unexpected since barium commonly

precipitates (forms solids) in the presence of

sulfates, which are abundant in nearshore

waters (Higashi et al., 1997).

• Raimondi and Schmitt (1992) found that

planktonic larvae (red abalone larvae) can be

adversely affected by produced water plumes,

even from the open coast, high energy environment outfall at Carpinteria, and at distances beyond which modeled produced water

effluents indicated that background concentrations should be occurring.

• Water-borne contaminants may have caused

effects over a much greater spatial scale than

did the particulate fractions (Osenberg, et al.,

1992). This was consistent with laboratory

findings where the water-soluble fraction of

the Carpinteria produced water was responsible for the most biological effects (Higashi et

al., 1992).

• Krause et al. (1992) found that laboratory tests

on sea urchin larvae development showed effects at concentrations down to 1 ppm, about

what the concentration would be at 500 m

(1,600 ft) from the open coast, high energy environment outfall at Carpinteria.

• Krause (1993) found up to a 10 percent reduction in sea urchin egg fertilization at concentrations of greater than a factor of 106

.

1

 Since this particular study site was in 10 to 12 m

(33 to 40 ft) water depth, it may not be directly applicable

to a similar situation at an offshore platform because of

the water depth and the ability of a produced water plume

to spread and disperse vertically as well as horizontally.
6-26

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

• Raimondi and Reed (1996) found that, in general, physical/chemical predictors were poor indicators of biological impact. For example, they

noted that although barium uptake in the

shells of mussels was seen at 500 and 1,000 m

(1,600 and 3,200 ft, respectively) from the

Carpinteria outfall, concentrations of produced

water and the barium were as low as 0.0001

percent of the whole effluent.

• Washburn et al. (1998) found that modeled

runs of the Carpinteria outfall produced results similar to and supportive of the biological effects found by the above authors.

Within 100 m (320 ft) of the discharge point,

Wagner (1994) conducted bioassays on two species of

mysids (opossum shrimp) with produced water at concentrations ranging from 0.18 percent to 10 percent

of the whole produced water effluent. These ranges

of concentration would certainly be within 100 m (320

ft) of any produced water discharge point in the offshore California OCS. For example the range of current dilution ratios is 467:1 to 2,481:1. Putting these

ratios in terms of concentrations reveals that, for example, a dilution ratio of 10:1 would equal a concentration of 10 percent.

Wagner’s endpoints were Lowest Observed Effect Concentration (LOEC) for both survival and

growth, defined as the lowest concentration at which

survival or growth effects are statistically significantly

different from the control (the lower the value, the

more toxic the produced water). The LOECs for survival ranged from 3.2 percent to 10 percent while the

LOECs for growth ranged from 0.18 percent to 7 percent. As is evident, Wagner’s test concentrations, in

dilution ratio terms, ranged from 180:1 to 10:1 , all of

which would be well within 100 m (320 ft) of the discharging platforms (although it is unknown how far

this might be).

One important aspect of the results presented

in Wagner (1994) can be seen in her figures 10-12.

There was no indication of effects on survival until at

least concentrations of 1.5 to 2 percent (150:1 to 200:1

dilution). Once that point was reached, however, test

animal survival decreased markedly. While growth

also decreased with increasing concentration, the

“break point” at which changes began to appear occurred at slightly lower concentrations than those of

survival (1 to about 1.5 percent). While this conclusion may be intuitive (that is, nonlethal effects would

occur at lower concentrations than lethal ones),

Wagner’s results are nevertheless instructive regarding application of the laboratory results to the field,

such as the distance between the discharge point and

where those effects might occur.

Similarly, Cherr et al. (1993) found that at [what

the investigators stated to be] low concentrations of

produced water, ranging from 3 to 10 percent, caused

morphological changes in purple sea urchin

(Strongylocentrotus purpuratus) embryos. Contrarily, experimental results indicated that kelp gametophytes were not particularly sensitive to produced

water. However, preliminary results did indicate that

produced water caused inhibition in the nuclear processes of gametophyte development (Cherr and Fan,

1996).

Table 6.2.2-1. Platforms that have discharged produced water, the number of years

discharging and the NPDES permit limit for oil and grease.

Platform 

Years 

Discharged 

(1989 - 1998) 

NPDES Oil and 

Grease Permit 

Limit (ppm) 

Platform 

Years 

Discharged 

(1989 - 1998) 

NPDES Oil and 

Grease Permit 

Limit (ppm) 

Edith 10 72 C 8 72 

Gail 10 29 Harmony 7 29 

Gilda 10 72 Harvest 7 72 

Habitat 10 72 Hidalgo 7 72 

Hogan 10 72 Hermosa 7 72 

Hillhouse 10 72 Grace 6 29 

A 10 72 Gina 4 72 

B 10 72 Irene 3 29 
6-27

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

The results given above, when taken together,

indicate that more information is needed to ensure that

produced water discharges, indeed, do not change water

quality parameters to the extent that biological systems are impacted. Ongoing and future studies are

anticipated to provide a better estimate of concentrations and dilution with distance both from the discharge point to 100 m (320 ft) as well as to points

beyond 1,000 m (3,200 ft).

Other effluents. A list of the discharges that

could emanate from other existing and future platforms is given in sections 5.2.2.1 and 5.2.2.2. None of

these discharges, will cause any water quality impacts

due to the small volume of the discharge and the treatment systems required.

Oil spills. Section 5.1.3 discusses the cumulative oil spill risk for the project area. Tables 5.1.3.1-2

and 5.1.3.1-3 present the estimated mean number of

spills of various sizes and the probability of their occurrence as a result of the described activities. The

probability of one or more spills 200 bbl or less in size

occurring from existing and proposed offshore oil and

gas activities during the period 2002-2030 is 73.9 percent. The probability that one or more spills in the

2,000-bbl range will occur from these activities is 59.1

percent. The risk of a major tanker spill (22,800-bbl)

during this period is estimated to be 90.5 percent.

Impacts to water quality from any oil spills occurring during this period would be similar to those

described in section 5.2.2.2.1 for the 200- and 2,000-

bbl spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil

and gas activities and for the assumed 22,800-bbl

tanker spill. Additional information on oil spill risks,

fates and effects may be found in section 5.1.3 and

appendix 5.3.

NON-OFFSHORE OIL AND GAS ACTIVITIES

As was discussed in sections 5.2.2.1 and 5.2.2.2

and summarized below, water quality in the study area

may be generally divided into two subregions. The

offshore oil and gas units proposed to be drilled are in

the following subregions:

• Point Sur to the western entrance of the Santa

Barbara Channel (Point Sal, Purisima, and

Bonito); and

• The northern Southern California Bight

(SCB): Santa Barbara Channel to Point Fermin

(Gato Canyon).

These subregions are generally based on the level

of activity that is occurring both onshore and offshore.

For example, traveling from north to south, population, shipping traffic, nonpoint pollution sources, and

on- and offshore oil and gas activities increase, while

river runoff generally decreases. These factors result

in a general increase in pollution from north to south

in the coastal ocean.

Municipal and industrial wastewater discharges.

Only two Publicly-Owned Treatment Works (POTWs),

or sewage treatment plants, discharge directly into

the Pacific Ocean in San Luis Obispo County (table

4.5-4). Three others discharge into local rivers which

empty into the ocean. All the dischargers are small,

according to EPA criteria (less than 25 million gallos

per day (mgd)). There are six POTWs that discharge

treated effluent to the Santa Barbara Channel (table

4.5-6). They are all small dischargers whose effluents

are at a mixed primary/secondary level of treatment

(SCCWRP, 1996). Only a few other point sources of

pollution exist along the shorelines of the Channel,

including several power plants spaced along the Santa

Barbara, Ventura and northern Los Angeles County

coastlines.

The 1975-1978 BLM-sponsored baseline studies

in the Southern California Bight (SCB) indicated that

most of the metal and hydrocarbon loads of the four

basins examined (Santa Barbara Channel, San Pedro,

Santa Monica, and San Nicolas) were derived from

industrial and municipal wastes, entering the marine

environment through direct discharge, indirect runoff and atmospheric transport, all centering around

the Los Angeles metropolitan area (BLM, 1979).

There are no known analyses of trends for

POTW-related discharges for the time period under

consideration here (2002 to 2030). However, historical trends are that population, overall volumes of discharges, and mass emissions of measured pollutants

have all increased. Nevertheless, the rate of increase

of mass emission has been less than the other two

parameters since treatment technology has improved

and been upgraded throughout the study area and

agency regulation has been intensified (SCCWRP,

1996; 1998).

River plumes. The Santa Maria River, on the

border of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, and the Santa Ynez River, which flows into the

ocean between Points Purisima and Arguello, are the

major sources of pollution that could exist in the San

Luis Obispo/northern Santa Barbara County area.

Pollutants to the coastal ocean that could be associated with these rivers are predominantly agriculturally-based and may include dairy and ranching-related

pollutants (for example, animal wastes) and pesticides.

The two major rivers that empty into the Santa Barbara Channel, the Santa Clara and Ventura, both in

Ventura County, drain a mix of agricultural and urban lands. The plumes for all these rivers, during

these periods of high flow, can extend some distance

from the shoreline and affect the offshore areas in terms

of sediment and possibly some pollution (Hickey and

Kaschel, unpubl; Mertes et al., 1998).
6-28

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

Climatological forecasters from the National

Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) and

the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have indicated that the Pacific Basin has

entered a Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO

is a long-term ocean temperature fluctuation of the

Pacific Ocean that waxes and wanes approximately

every 10 to 20 years (see the websites: http://topexwww.jpl.nasa.gov/discover/PDO.html and http://

psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/

climo.html). As this applies to the rivers in the study

area, NASA and NOAA scientists believe that there

will be fewer really wet years, such as has often been

present during the so called, “El Niño” years. The

present cool or negative phase of the PDO looks a lot

like, and tends to produce climate similar to, the La

Niña of the past two winters and springs, to the extent that rainfall was as much as 20 to 40 percent

below normal. While winter rains and the resultant

high flows will still occur during this phase of the PDO,

the scale of these flows will probably be less and occur

less often during any single year.

The largest amount of sediment input into the

offshore come from rivers. Consider that from 1986

to 1989, the three Point Arguello platforms, Hermosa,

Hidalgo, and Harvest, released an estimated 5,120,000

kg (11,264,000 lb) of barite, with an annual average

of 1,280,000 kg (2,816,000 lb) (Steinhauer, et al., 1991

– Chapter 2). At the same time, the rivers draining

into the southern Santa Maria Basin (from north to

south: Arroyo Grande Creek, the Santa Maria River,

San Antonio Creek and the Santa Ynez River) were

estimated to have added 650,000 kg/year (1,430,000

lb/year) to the Basin. Since drilling has subsequently

ceased on the platforms but runoff has continued, since

1989 an additional 7,150,000 kg (15,730,000 lb) of

barium has been added to the southern Santa Maria

Basin from river runoff (because this region of California was experiencing a drought during the 1986 to

1989 drilling period, input of suspended material from

rivers was probably less than both normal and El Niño

conditions). Nevertheless, the rains that did occur

caused near-bottom clouds of suspended sediments

several orders of magnitude greater than measured

background levels (SAIC and MEC, 1995).

Storm drains. Storm drain-associated pollution

would be confined to the near-coastal vicinity since,

even during high runoff periods, the volume would

not be enough to carry pollutants very far offshore.

Natural oil and gas seeps. Natural seeps contribute significant amounts of hydrocarbons to the

marine environment in the form of locally-elevated

hydrocarbons in the water column and substantial

slicks on the sea surface. Most known seeps occur on

the mainland shelf, including at Point Conception,

Coal Oil Point and Santa Barbara/Rincon in the Santa

Barbara Channel, and in the Santa Monica Bay (Anderson et al., 1993). There may also be natural oil and

gas seeps along the central California coast, but there

is little information on these. Natural seeps, in general, would have little impact on water quality parameters.

Incremental Impacts of Development of the 36

Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Potential sources

of impact to water quality from the full development

of the 36 undeveloped leases (a total of five platforms)

are as follows:

• Cavern Point Unit exploration and subsequent

development;

• Rocky Point Unit development;

• Gato Canyon Unit development;

• Bonito Unit development;

• Santa Maria Basin Unit development;

• Point Sal Unit development;

• Lease OCS-P 0409 development;

• Sword Unit development.

CONSTRUCTION AND INSTALLATION

ACTIVITIES

Construction and installation activities include

placement of the platforms which entails the use of a

large derrick barge and the attendant anchors. Also,

the laying pipelines, through the use of a pipelaying

barge will also use many anchor placements and retrievals. The two potential impacting agents to water

quality could result in the resuspension of sediments

from anchor placement and the actual setting of the

platform on the sea floor and the discharge of sewage

from the vessels involved in the construction activities.

As noted in section 5.2.2.1, resuspension of sediments is a minor water quality issue since these sediments would resettle to the sea floor fairly quickly

and be lost in the natural signal of the area. This

includes the existing nephaloid layer and episodic

pulses of sediments that could come through any of

the development sites and arise from onshore river

input to the offshore environment. Sewage from the

vessels involved in the construction activities are required to be treated in a USCG-approved system.

These treatment systems macerate and chlorinate the

effluent prior to discharge so that fecal coliform and

other harmful bacteria and viruses are killed. At the

same time, the amount of chlorine added to the system is carefully controlled so as not to impact marine

waters with a high load of chlorine. Some systems
6-29

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

include a dechlorinating step, especially for large vessels, so that a large amount of chlorine is removed

from the effluent prior to discharge. Only a negligible

impact to water quality would occur from any of the

construction and installation activities.

DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION

ACTIVITIES

The projects discussed in this section include

past, present, and foreseeable actions that may produce impacts during 2002-2030, the period during

which development of the 36-undeveloped leases would

likely occur. Most of the major impact agents are those

discussed in sections 5.2.2.1 and 5.2.2.2. and summarized briefly below. Potential effects from oil spills

from offshore oil and gas activities and tankering, were

also addressed in section 5.2.2.2.

The following analysis is general, and specific

units, or groups of units are noted only when appropriate. Nevertheless, unit-specific development scenarios in section 5.1.2.3 considers the information

below and in table 6.2.2-2:

• The location of the platforms due to development of the 36 undeveloped leases;

• The number of well slots available on each platform;

• The number of wells anticipated to be used

for development purposes;

• The estimated timeframe for installation and

development drilling;

• The amount of drilling muds and cuttings estimated to be discharged during development;

and

• The amount of produced water to be discharged during production.

Drilling Discharges. Table 5.1.2.2-1 shows the

number of wells expected to be drilled from existing

production platforms. Currently, it is estimated that

24 new wells will be drilled from existing OCS platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Maria

Basin. Production activities are expected to continue

on all existing, active platforms until decommissioning (see section on Offshore Facilities Decommissioning, below). As discussed in section 5.2.2.1, potential

impacts to water quality from the proposed delineation wells are expected to be low.

When development on the undeveloped leases

is considered, a total of up to 181 wells may be drilled

over a period of 13 years, discharging up to 2.5 million bbl of drilling muds and 609,000 bbl of cuttings.

Figures 5.2.2.2-2 through 5.2.2.2-4, show that the areas of the water column affected by drilling discharges

(specifically, the lightest particulate material), do not

overlap in space with any other offshore oil and gas

activity.

Additionally, figure 5.2.2.2-1 shows a typical river

plume situation for flows during winter rains for any

rivers from Point Mugu to the northern Santa Maria

Basin. The river system with the most particulate

discharge is the Ventura/Santa Clara river combination while the Santa Ynez and Santa Maria Rivers do

not appear to contribute much sedimentation (Mertes,

et al., 1998). Realizing that this is a “typical” snapshot, Hickey and Kaschel (unpublished) show figures

during extreme El Niño-like events. These river

plumes occur only during periods of very high flow

and may cross the Santa Barbara Channel to the waters of the Sanctuary (for the Ventura/Santa Clara

Rivers) and reach south, past Point Conception, for

the Santa Ynez/Santa Maria River plumes. While

these events are episodic (seasonal for those described

by Mertes, et al. (1998) and every 5-7 years for the

Hickey and Kaschel data), they would nonetheless

overwhelm the effects of any particulate material discharged by drilling operations, wherever the two

plumes might meet.

Volumes of produced water discharged in the

course of developing the 36-undeveloped leases are

expected to be equivalent to those estimated for existing OCS platforms (table 4.0.1-8). Of the five platforms presumed to be installed under the development

scenarios for this analysis, three would have produced

water discharges (Gato Canyon, Bonito and SMB B).

As was described in section 5.2.2.2.1, studies of produced water effluents have suggested that water quality parameters can be altered to anywhere from 0 to

1,000 m (0 to 3,200 ft) from the discharge point. However, none of the studies provided any definitive evidence of impacts to either water quality parameters

or biological systems. This, combined with the strict

limitations and monitoring that will be conducted

under the appropriate NPDES permit, will serve to

minimize impacts to water quality. None of the other

discharges emanating from the platforms would have

any effect on water quality.

Offshore Facility Decommissioning. Table 6.1.2-

1 presents estimated removal dates for existing oil and

gas structures offshore southern California. It is expected that no OCS platforms in the Santa Barbara

Channel or Santa Maria Basin will be removed before

2012, and a few may be in place as late as 2025 (or

2035, in the case of Platform Irene if the Tranquillon

Ridge development occurs). As discussed in section

5.2.2.2.1, only suspension of sediments from the sea

floor and sewage from the vessels in attendance could

change water quality parameters. No impacts to water quality is expected from these activities.
6-30

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

Unit/Lease 

Water Depth (ft) 

Well 

slots 

Development 

Wells 

Timing of 

Development 

Drilling 

(total years) 

Muds and 

Cuttings 

Discharged 

(103

 bbl) 

Produced 

Water 

Discharged 

(106 bbl)* 

Gato Canyon/0460 

560 28 20 2008 – 2012 (5) Muds – 193 Cuttings – 68 39 

Bonito/0443 

700 36 21 2009 – 2012 (4) Muds – 342 Cuttings – 82 102 

--/0409 

450 60 45 2009 – 2017 (9) Muds – 603 Cuttings – 145 115 

Point Sal/0422 

300 60 49 2009 – 2020 (12) Muds – 650 Cuttings – 156 118 

Santa Maria/0431 

300 60 46 2008 – 2016 (9) Muds – 658 Cuttings – 158 90 

Totals 244 181 -- Muds – 2,446 

Cuttings – 609 464 

*Amount of produced water expected to be discharged for the life of the projects. 

Discharges from these decommissioned platforms

will also cease. According to table 6.1.2-1, all the existing platforms will be decommissioned by 2025.

Meanwhile, three of the 5 platforms, that could result

from development of the oil fields proposed to be delineated, may be installed between 2009 and 2010.

Discharges from these new platforms will begin shortly

after installation, gradually peaking some 10 to 15

years later. Therefore, by 2025, the approximately 33

million bbl per year that were discharged, as of 1999,

would no longer be discharged. Since the existing platforms may be decommissioned in small groups, the

33 million bbl will gradually decline. It is estimated

that about 70 percent of that volume will disappear

by 2020 and the rest by 2025. The three new platforms are estimated to discharge about 3 million bbl

per year at peak. Thus, by 2025, compared to today,

there will be a net benefit to water quality due to the

decommissioning of the existing OCS facilities, even

though about 9 million bbl per year will still be discharged until the decommissioning of the new platforms around 2040 to 2050 (table 6.1.2-1).

NON-OCS POLLUTANT SOURCES

These include onshore river input, sewage treatment plants (POTW’s), and oil spills from non-OCS

tankering activities. As has been discussed in several

sections previously, river input is episodic in nature,

so that for one or two months during winter, most of

the sediment is discharged from river outflow. If this

occurs during an El Niño event, these pollutants could

travel substantial distances into the offshore area. The

usual seasonal sedimentary discharge from rivers provides much less of this type of discharge to the offshore area and less pollutants from the mostly agricultural watersheds (with some urban-associated pollutants, as well).

All the POTW’s in the study area are small (<

25 million gallons per day), the largest being Oxnard.

All are also subjected to inspections and monitoring

by the local Regional Water Quality Control Boards

(RWQCB’s) according to the NPDES permit specific

to the facility. Any impacts associated with these

POTWs are limited, at a maximum, to a few hundred

meters from the outfall.

The 22,800-bbl oil spill from a tanker would have

similar impacts to water quality as those described in

section 5.2.2.2.1.

There are no impacts to water quality that are

unit-specific.

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030): Overall, for the period 2002 to 2030, the installation of five

platforms, the associated discharges, eventual decommissioning, the two land-based sources of pollution

(rivers and POTW’s), and oil spills will cause only a

low impact to water quality for the following reasons:

• Installation procedures are limited to sewage

discharges from the construction vessels and

suspension of sediment from the sea floor.

Neither of these will cause impacts to water

quality.

• Drilling discharges (muds and cuttings) will

either, in the case of cuttings, fall relatively

quickly to the sea floor, or, for drilling muds,

largely remain in the water column, in which

case they will spread and disperse with the predominant currents.

Table 6.2.2-2. Key information necessary for the qualitative cumulative analysis including the

36 undeveloped leases (Most Likely Development Scenario).
6-31

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

• Produced water, starting early in the development phase, will be discharged for the life of

the platforms. The rate of discharge of the

effluent will gradually increase, reaching a peak

discharge rate some 10 to 15 years after beginning. While there is some evidence that water

quality parameters may be changed by this effluent, judging by results from biologicallybased studies, there is no firm evidence that

this effect is very wide-spread nor ecologically

damaging. Further information is needed.

• Decommissioning of existing platforms will

cause the cessation of existing discharges, as

well. Thus, there will be a gradual net benefit

to water quality (even though the overall impact is low), as existing platforms are removed.

• River-based inputs are very episodic, either

seasonally or longer, and can bring some unknown amount of land-based (mainly agricultural with some urban) pollutants. While this

potential pollutant input would over lap in time

and space with any future development activity, their contribution to the pollutant loading

of the study area would greatly exceed those

of the discharges from this future activity.

• POTW-based pollution causes only a limited

amount water quality impacts due to the relatively small volume of the discharges and the

inspections and monitoring conducted by the

RWQCB’s.

• Oil spills are likely to occur over the next 28

years, according to historical statistics. Effects

on water quality will vary with the size of the

spill, the type of oil, the sea state and other

factors. Spills will generally have a minimal

impact on water quality over the long-term

(MMS, 1996).

6.2.3 CUMULATIVE ROCKY AND SANDY

BEACH HABITAT IMPACTS (2002-

2030)

The cumulative section introduction describes

the projects considered in the cumulative analysis.

This section examines:

• the cumulative impacts to rocky and sandy

beach habitats without the development of the

36 leases in the time period from 2002 to 2030;

• the additional cumulative impacts to rocky and

sandy beach habitats from development of the

36 leases in the time period from 2002 to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.3 for a discussion of effects

for the time period 2002 to 2006. The significance

criteria for the following analysis are the same as the

criteria for the time period 2002 to 2006 presented in

Section 5.2.3.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): There

are several sources of natural and anthropogenic impacts to sandy and rocky intertidal beaches that have

occurred in the past and would be expected in the future. These include natural diseases, natural weather

events, natural oil seeps, public use, pollution events,

and construction activities.

Disease. The most obvious example of a significant impact from natural diseases affecting beaches

is the affect the withering foot disease has had on black

abalone in the Southern California Bight. This fatal

bacterial disease is encouraged to spread during

warmer water trends. It was first noted on the Channel Islands in 1985, and documented on the mainland

at the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant near the

cooling water discharges, and at Point Conception

during the 1992 El Nino. Mortality from this disease

has resulted in staggering declines in abalone abundance along the mainland and islands. Black abalone

along the mainland and island has been reduced at

least 90% from population estimates prior to the disease, a high impact. A similar type of wasting disease, which proliferates during warm water conditions,

has also affected sea stars and other echinoderms,

though exact estimates of the numbers lost to this

disease are not known.

El Nino/Extreme Storm Events. Extreme storm

events such as those that occur during El Nino years

significantly affect beaches, especially high-energy

beaches such as on the southern side of the Channel

Islands and on the shoreline north of Point Conception. The types of impact caused by extreme storm

events was documented at Ocea Beach during the BLM

Baseline Study (Littler, 1979).

On sandy beaches, wave action completely removes the sand on one beach and deposits unusually

large amounts of sand on another. Storm events can

significantly alter the substrate at the beach, changing a sandy beach, for example, to a largely cobble

beach, causing moderate impacts). This occurred at

the Ventura beaches in 1997, and they are only just

now being replenished by sand (pers. comm.,

L.Roberts, 2001). Storms also bring an influx of large

masses of debris (trees, large plants, rocks and manmade items such as dishwashers, tires, and sofas) down

the river depositing them on the beaches near the river

mouth. The debris deposited on beaches following

large storm events has been known to preclude nesting shorebirds such as the least tern (pers. comm., L.

Roberts, 2001). Rack (stranded seaweed) found on

sandy beaches is often removed in storm events, im-
6-32

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

pacting shorebirds and endangered birds such as the

snowy plover whose diet depends heavily on the rack

for sources of beetles and insects, a moderate impact.

Impacts to rocky beaches in Southern and Central California have been documented through the

ongoing rocky intertidal monitoring program. The

heavy pounding surf in the 1997 El Nino broke off

large chunks of rock and pounded the shoreline with

entrained logs and debris (Raimondi et al., 1999).

Statistically significant changes in species abundance

and composition were documented in one or more key

species key species at 10 of 11 sites, a moderate impact. Species that had significant declines included

mussels, barnacles, and a turf algae, Endocladia,

(Raimondi et al., 1999). While significant changes to

abalone habitat were observed due to the strong storm

activity, a full analysis could not be done to determine

significance due to the black abalone declining trends

from withering foot syndrome. (Raimondi et al., 1999).

Even in the relatively calmer Channel, the 1997 El

Nino storm’s heavy wave action buried the rocky

shoreline at Alegria under several feet of cobble (personal observation).

Natural Oil Seeps. Over 100 bbl of oil seep naturally every day from shallow oil deposits in the Santa

Barbara Channel. This natural occurrence has been

documented by several researchers, and has been

known to exist along the mainland for hundreds of

years dating back to the periods when native Americans inhabited the region (Galloway, 2001). Some of

the largest recorded seeps occur at Coal Oil Point; over

2,000 seeps have been recorded in State waters in the

Channel alone. The U.S. Geological Survey and MMS

are jointly pursuing a study that would document the

location and volume of natural seeps in the Santa

Maria Basin. Because seep oil looses some of its properties as it migrates to the surface, tarballs from natural oil seeps can be fingerprinted and differentiated

from natural oil produced by existing oil and gas facilities. Tarballs found in the Jalama Beach area, for

example, have been directly linked with natural seep

oil from Coal Oil Point seeps through fingerprinting

techniques (pers. comm., K. Kvenvolden, 2001).

In depositional areas and areas close to origin of

seeps, the oil deposited on the shoreline can be thick.

This is true of rocky intertidal habitat at Government

Point which lies inshore of several identified active

seeps. In other areas, such as at the rocky intertidal

beach at Boathouse on VAFB or at Jalama State Beach,

tarballs are most evident in rocky habitat in the barnacle zone or, in sandy habitat, along high tide bands

parallel to the shoreline (Engle, 1994). Tarballs which

land in the barnacle zone are persistent for many seasons (Raimondi, 1999). Barnacles covered by natural

tar die; however, barnacles will recruit and establish

new populations on top of residual tar (Raimondi,

2000). Impacts from natural oil seeps are patchy and

chronic and represent low impacts.

Public Use. The public heavily visits rocky and

sandy beaches in Southern California and, to a lesser

extent, visits accessible locations in central and northern California. Most elementary schools, high schools

and colleges have programs that include fieldtrips to

the beach, particularly the tidepools. Significant impacts from public use have been documented in several locations in Southern California where visitor use

is high (Anderson et al., 1993;Engle and Davis, 2000b;

Richards, 1998). Potential impacts from public use

include: trampling, especially detrimental to fragile

algal communities, overturned rocks, displaced marine life, collecting of mussels and other invertebrates

for fish bait; collecting of limpets, mussels, seaweeds

and snails for consumption, and depositing potentially

toxic trash. Because of the high visitor use and extreme pressure on the beaches from populated Southern California, these individual public impacts are

cumulatively significant and range from moderate to

high impacts. Due to the concern, several programs

have been piloted in high use areas to control public

use. It appears these programs to control public use

and collecting may be successful where they are strictly

enforced; however, cumulative impacts from other

sources are still impacting resources (Engle and Davis,

2000b).

Construction Activities. Onshore construction

of homes, hotels, commercial businesses, roads in the

populated Southern California area has impacted

sandy and rocky intertidal beaches directly through

the construction of water, sewage, cable and oil pipelines, walkways, piers, jettys, and parking lots on and

near the beach. These activities significantly modify

or eliminate habitat in localized areas, a moderate

impact. Indirect impacts include increased public use

and increased pollution events (see discussion below)

creating moderate to high impacts.

Pollution Events. Anthropogenic sources of pollution include sewage leaks, surface runoff, leaky tank

farms, warm water discharges from nuclear energy

facilities, and onshore and offshore oil spills from existing Federal and State facilities.

Sewage, surface runoff, and thermal discharges.

Sewage leaks are reported often throughout Southern California, especially during heavy rains due to

overflow. Small overflow problems would cause temporary beach closure due to public health risks but

would only be expected to affect biota on the beach at

a low level. Large leaks and smaller, chronic leaks,

however, could cause impacts to beach biota due to

the increased nutrient load and decreased oxygen.

Impacts from sewage outfalls include reduced species

diversity and complexity, increased cover of opportunistic algae and diatoms, and increased silt in turf

habitats (Engle and Davis, 2000a). Significant changes

in species composition over localized areas could occur, particularly in closed systems, due to a species
6-33

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

shift toward organisms tolerant of anoxic conditions,

resulting in moderate impacts. Chronic incidents such

as the leaking oil tanks at Avila Beach, the seeping

diluent at the onshore Guadalupe oil fields and the

ongoing chronic sewage problems at Malibu and Huntington Beach have caused moderate to high impacts

to beach habitat. Thermal discharges have been shown

to cause low to moderate impacts by altering rocky

intertidal community structure in the area near the

origin of the outfall (Murray and Littler, 1986).

Marine Tanker Spills. Tanker spills, particularly

from foreign flag vessels transiting to port in San Francisco or Los Angeles, continue to be the most likely

source of a spill and the largest potential source of an

oil spill offshore California. No OCS oil is being

tankered; the oil tankered offshore California is from

foreign sources and Alaska. Based on historic data, it

is estimated that there is a 76% chance of one or more

spills greater than 1,000 bbl from a tanker. The mean

(average) spill size from a tanker is calculated as

22,800 bbl for the period between 1985-1999, based

on the U.S. Coast Guard data base for accidents in

U.S. waters. The median spill size is 5,600 bbl (See

the Oil Spill Risk Section). Glenn Ford’s coastline

model predicts that between 9 and 161 km of coastline could be contacted if a 22,800-bbl oil spill occurs.

The mean length of coastline contacted for that size

spill is 38 km.

If a 22,800-bbl spill occurred, it is expected that

a substantial portion of shoreline (tens of kilometers

in the area closest to the origin of the spill) would be

heavily oiled, causing significant impacts to biota over

a wide area, a high impact. Beaches closest to the

origin of the spill and depositional beaches along the

mainland and islands would be the most likely impacted, including areas with protected regions such

as the Channel Islands Marine Sanctuary. These depositional beaches occur in the lee of each point along

the central California coast and along the calm, sandy

beaches found on the Channel side of the offshore islands. On high-energy sandy beaches, oil may be buried fast, making cleanup difficult. High-energy sandy

beaches are a high priority for oil spill response for

this reason. The deposition process buries pockets of

oil, which continue to release toxic compounds into

the habitat long after the spill is invisible on the surface. For this size spill, it is assumed that a substantial area of shoreline would be heavily oiled and, therefore, overall impacts to sandy beaches from the oil

would be high.

In areas where the oil is heavy and coats rocky

intertidal habitat, strands in tidepools, or strands in

wide bands in the high intertidal, impacts would be

high. The primary concern would be direct contact

with long-lived animals such as seastars, limpets, abalone, and important communities such as algal assemblages and mussel beds. Impacts on these animals

and communities from oil could result in mortality

and/or sublethal changes affecting reproduction, recruitment or settling. For a 22,800-bbl spill, it is assumed that a substantial amount of the shoreline would

sustain heavy oiling and, therefore, overall impacts

to rocky intertidal resources from the oil would be

high.

Significant impacts would be expected also during cleanup activities due to the movement of heavy

equipment across the sand, through sensitive dune

habitat, and trampling in rocky intertidal areas. If

hot water wash is again attempted to clean rocky intertidal habitat as was done in cleanup of the Valdez

oil spill, high impacts would be expected to rocky intertidal resources from the cleanup alone. Hot water

washing has been proven in numerous studies to render rocky habitat sterile, resulting in irreversible impacts (Lees et al., 1999). Rocky intertidal areas are

generally better off not cleaned or only gently cleaned.

Trampling activities caused by workers in the intertidal causes significant impacts (Lees et al, 1999).

Impacts from the cleanup activity could be lessened if

activities are limited to a few people using absorbent

pads and picking up tar patties, and all types of pressure washing are avoided. Heavily oiled rocky habitat will be severely impacted by the oil, but without

the added significant physical cleanup impacts, the

habitat will recover (Lees et al, 1999).

Marine tanker spills are the most likely source

of impact to shorelines along the California coastline.

Ports such as the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles

Harbor are especially vulnerable due to number of

vessels and offloading activities. The majority of

American flag tankers voluntarily transit outside the

Channel Islands enroute to port, reducing their potential to impact shoreline resources in the Santa

Barbara Channel. However, since foreign flag tankers transit through the Santa Barbara Channel in

vessel traffic lanes which go within one nautical mile

of Anacapa Island, they pose the most serious risk to

the protected resources on the islands. In general,

shorelines within the Channel Islands National Park

and Sanctuary and along the mainland in the Channel are more vulnerable to a vessel spill because of

their proximity to vessel traffic lanes.

 Oil Spill from Existing Oil and Gas Facilities.

Oil spills may also occur from existing platforms in

Federal and State waters. Section 5.0 discusses the

cumulative oil spill risk for the project area. The size

of spill possible from individual facilities is substantially smaller than from a tanker due to volume

present, platform technology and oil gravity. The level

of impacts from a given spill will depend on many factors, including the type, rate and volume of oil spilled,

distance spill originates from shore, weather and

oceanographic conditions at the time of the spill, etc.

These parameters will determine the quantity of oil

that is dispersed into the water column, the degree of

weathering, evaporation and dispersion of the oil that
6-34

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

takes place before it contacts the shoreline and the

actual amount, concentration and composition of the

oil that contacts the shoreline.

During the period between 1970 and 2000, 881

OCS-related oil spills have occurred, totaling 780 bbls.

Existing Federal and State facilities have a 97% and

25% chance, respectively, of a spill between 50 and

999 bbl, with a most likely spill size of 200 bbl. (See

Oil Spill Risk Section). For a small spill 200 bbl or

less, one may expect that the amount of shoreline contacted would range from 1 to 19 km, with a mean of 4

km (See Table 5.1.3.1-3). Existing Federal and State

facilities have a 59% and 8% chance, respectively, of a

spill over 1,000, with a most likely spill size of 2,000

bbl.

The only Pacific OCS spill outside the 1969 blowout to reach shoreline, the Platform Irene pipeline

spill, serves as an example of the types of impacts that

might occur from a 200-bbl spill. In the case of the

September 1997 Platform Irene pipeline accident, 167

bbl. of oil were spilled approximately 3 miles offshore

Surf Beach, 10-15 miles north of the Point Arguello

platforms. In general, very little oil was observed along

the rocky shoreline as a result of the spill. The primary oiling occurred at the sandy beaches near the

location of the pipeline at Surf Beach. Impacts occurred due to oiling of the sand and cleanup activities

near Surf Beach in heavily and moderately oiled

beaches. Oil was observed at one rocky site near Point

Arguello in the lower to middle intertidal. Sticky globs

of tar were seen on black abalone and seastars

(Raimondi, 1998). Statistical results based on the prespill data from the long term monitoring program

found that the spill had little or no affect, however, on

the monitored rocky intertidal sites within 3-15 miles

of the spill (Raimondi, 1998).

In a 200-bbl spill, the beach initially hit, and closest to the origin of the spill, would be the most heavily

impacted, and would be more likely to be affected by

fresh oil. Other parts of the shoreline are more likely

to be contacted by weathered oil and tarballs. A spill

200 bbl or less would be expected to contribute low to

moderate impacts depending on the amount of shoreline heavily contacted. A majority of the shoreline

within the total area contacted by oil would be expected to contain a patchy distribution of oil from plate

sized tar patties to a light sheen, distributed primarily along bands parallel to the shoreline. Cleanup

activities on sandy beaches may cause impacts equal

to the oil spill itself. Movement of heavy equipment

across the sand, for example, impacts beaches by

crushing organisms found in the sand. Longer-lived

animals such as the Pismo clam will sustain the longest impact from equipment. Sand crabs, which make

up the majority of the biomass on the sandy beach,

will take up oil into their tissues in areas of heaviest

oiling (pers. comm., Dugan, 2001). Uptake into the

food chain of contaminated crabs by shorebirds could

also occur, causing longer reaching impacts. Once the

oiled sand is removed, however, the sand crabs would

be expected to return to prespill abundance and toxicity levels within a few months, by repopulating from

cleaner areas. Oil that is buried in sand layers and

not removed can continue to cause toxicity affects to

buried animals long after the spill occurs. Sandy beach

recovery for light to moderately oiled areas can be as

short as weeks, if natural wave action assists in sand

removal, or, for moderately to heavily oiled areas, as

long as two to seven years if the oil is buried quickly

or if cleanup operations significantly injure long-lived

buried animals.

Rocky intertidal beaches are somewhat less

likely to be impacted by oil spills, particularly smaller

spills, due to natural wave action which keeps oil away

from cliffs and rocky benches (U.S. Coast Guard, 2000).

Once impacted, however, primary impacts include

smothering, uptake in tissues, and contamination of

other animals using rocky habitat such as seabirds

and marine mammals. Oil tends to strand high in the

intertidal in the barnacle zone. Tarballs in this zone

are persistent, lasting several seasons (Raimondi et

al., 1999). Oil can also persist in individual tidepools.

Seaweeds such as kelp secrete an oily substance that

helps prevent oil from adhering to their fronds. However, most algae in the higher intertidal, and algae

such as surf grass in the low intertidal, would be susceptible to oiling and would sustain long-term impacts

if covered by oil (Foster et al, 1971). The coastline in

the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Maria Basin is

regularly exposed to large volumes of natural oil seepage; individual seeps at Coal Oil Point release over

100 bbl per day. Because of this background exposure

to low levels of oil, the patchy occurrence of tarballs

from a small accidental spill is unlikely to cause any

measurable impact. Recovery of the black abalone

could exceed seven to ten years if a significant portion of the local population was directly contacted and

heavily oiled. Overall impacts from a spill 200 bbl or

less would be expected to be low on rocky intertidal

resources due to the amount of shoreline expected to

be heavily impacted. Impacts could be moderate if

the black abalone population is heavily contacted by

oil at more than one location.

A 2,000-bbl spill is predicted to contact between

3 and 53 km of coastline, with a mean value of 12 km.

As previously discussed, the shoreline closest to the

spill origin would be expected to be the most heavily

impacted. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that 3-12 km of coastline would be moderately

to heavily oiled, and another 10 to 40 km would be

lightly or very lightly oiled in the patchy pattern typical of offshore spills. Based on this, it is expected that

significant impacts could occur at several sandy

beaches and several rocky intertidal beaches, result-
6-35

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

ing in moderate impacts. If a significant portion of

the abalone habitat were heavily oiled, impacts would

be high for that population.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Refer

to the cumulative introduction section for a description of the projects being evaluated as part of the 36

Undeveloped Leases.

Pipeline Construction Activities. Rocky and

sandy beach resources can be affected through the

construction of onshore pipelines, and by oil spill impacts from existing and future platforms. Pipelines

are required by the State Lands Commission to be

buried through the surf zone. Depending on the rocky

or sandy resources at the landfall, pipelines will be

trenched and buried, laid on the surface, or drilled

through the surf zone at depth. The California Coastal

Commission required Chevron to construct the Point

Arguello pipelines using a “drilled” crossing. This

approach minimized impacts to sandy beach resources

since no trenching was required, but caused erosion

impacts elsewhere on the route. (pers. comm., John

Storrer, 2001). The Santa Ynez pipelines were

trenched through sandy onshore beaches. Given likely

landfall locations identified in the hypothetical development scenario, it is likely that pipelines would be

trenched through sandy beach landfalls and unlikely

that rocky beach resources would be impacted through

pipelaying activities.

Impacts to sandy beach resources such as crabs,

clams and other buried animals from construction of

onshore pipelines occur through the physical displacement by trench digging, and crushing or injuring them

through the use of heavy equipment. Disturbance

from heavy equipment is localized and expected over

a maximum 100-foot wide corridor, a low impact.

Animals such as sand crabs would be temporarily displaced, with repopulation of the area occurring within

a few weeks to a few months, a low impact. Longer

lived animals such as Pismo clams, if they were present

and were injured or displaced through trenching, could

be expected to require a few years to recover, particularly to the age class prior to the disturbance. However, the impact to Pismo clams is expected to be low

given that the number of Pismo clams that could be

impacted would be small and would not be expected

to cause a measurable change in species abundance

or composition. Plant resource impacts would be felt

if the pipeline construction occurred in a dune habitat. These would be localized but could be significant

if the habitat is altered, a moderate impact. Previous

pipeline construction projects have mitigated impacts

to fragile dune habitat through several measures including narrowing the construction corridor to less

than 50 feet in these areas (ADL, 1985). Mitigation

rerouting pipelaying to avoid dune habitat could reduce the impact to low.

Oil Spill Impacts. As discussed in the Oil Spill

Risk Section, the cumulative oil spill risk for the area

of the 36 undeveloped leases results from several

sources including: ongoing and projected oil and gas

production from existing OCS facilities in the Santa

Barbara Channel and Santa Maria Basin, several potential development projects (Rocky Point, Cavern

Point, Tranquillion Ridge, ongoing production from

one facility in State waters in the Santa Barbara Channel, two likely oil and gas projects in State waters,

and the tankering of Alaskan and foreign-import oil

through area waters.

If you assume that a spill occurs from OCS oil

and gas activities, the most likely case is that one or

more spills in the 50-1,000 bbl range would occur from

offshore oil and gas activities over the life of the hypothetical platforms (2002- 2030). It is assumed, based

on historical data, that such a spill would be 200 bbl

or less in volume. The probability of one or more spills

200 bbl or less in size occurring from existing and proposed offshore oil and gas activities is 73.9 percent.

The maximally reasonably foreseeable oil spill volume

from future offshore oil and gas activities is 2,000 bbl,

assumed for purposes of analysis, to be a pipeline spill.

The probability that one or more spills in the 2,000-

bbl range will occur from these activities if all 36 leases

are developed is 59.1 percent.

Impacts from a 200-bbl spill and a 2,000-bbl spill

are discussed in ”Oil Spill from Existing Oil and Gas

Facilities” above. Assuming that the spill occurs from

a pipeline or facility near shore, it is anticipated that

the shoreline adjacent to the spill origin would be

heavily or moderately oiled and that other rocky and

sandy beaches would patchily receive light sheen, and

or tarballs. Impacts from a 200-bbl spill would be expected to be low, except if abalone habitat were heavily

oiled which would be moderate. Impacts from a 2,000-

bbl spill would be expected to heavily to moderately

oil several rocky and sandy beaches, causing moderate impacts. There is a higher likelihood that oil from

a 2,000-bbl spill could contact enough abalone habitat

to affect the population, a high impact.

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030):

Sandy and rocky beaches are impacted in Central and

Southern California by many natural and anthropogenic sources. Natural disease can significantly impact certain populations such as the black abalone,

causing high impacts due to mortality. Natural events

such as the extreme storm conditions and warm water trends associated with El Nino events cause significant localized changes both to the habitat and the

species found on rocky and sandy beaches, a moderate impact. Natural oil seeps contribute over a hundred barrels of oil to marine waters each day, resulting in patchy, chronic impacts causing low impacts to

biota on sandy and rocky beaches. Beaches in Southern California are especially impacted due to the popu-
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

lation pressure and high public use. Because of the

high public pressure, impacts in Southern California

range from moderate to high. Low to moderate impacts are found north of Point Conception and on the

Channel Islands due to inaccessibility. Anthropogenic

sources of pollution such as surface runoff, leaky oil

tanks onshore, and chronic sewage problems have and

continue to cause significant impacts ranging from

moderate to high. Existing oil and gas facilities pose

a potential risk of an oil spill which could cause impacts ranging from low to moderate, unless black abalone habitat is directly contacted resulting in moderate to high potential impacts, depending on the size

of the spill. The most serious oil spill risk to shoreline resources is from tankering activities offshore

California, estimated to produce high impacts on rocky

and sandy beaches.

The proposal to drill five delineation wells does

not contribute measurable changes in cumulative

impacts to sandy or rocky beach resources. The potential development that could occur if the proposed

delineation wells are successful could lead to up to an

additional five platforms offshore Santa Barbara

County. Pipeline construction activities for the addition of two pipeline corridors through the shore to

onshore facilities could impact beach resources during trenching activities which could produce low impacts in sandy areas, or moderate impacts if dune habitat is altered. The potential risk of an oil spill from

OCS activities is increased with addition of potential

production from the 36 undeveloped leases. Oil spill

impacts could be high if the black abalone habitat is

heavily oiled in several locations.

6.2.4 CUMULATIVE SEAFLOOR

RESOURCES IMPACTS (2002-2030)

This section examines

• the cumulative impacts to seafloor biological

resources without the development of the 36

• the additional cumulative impacts to seafloor

biological resources from development of the

36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to section 5.2.4 for a discussion of effects

from the proposed action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in section 5.2.4.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The

sources of cumulative impacts during this time period include bottom trawling activities, existing oil and

gas activities and fiber optic cable installation activities, and the natural and anthropogenic sources of

turbidity. The impacts for this time frame out to 2030

would be essentially the same as those discussed in

section 5.2.4 for cumulative impacts occurring between

2002 and 2006. Please refer to this section for additional information.

Overall impacts to seafloor resources are high

for hard bottom habitat and low for soft bottom habitat. Moderate to high impacts were identified to hard

bottom from ongoing bottom trawl fishing. Due to

the rarity of the habitat, the fragility of the resources

and the long-term recolonization process, it is expected

that ongoing cumulative fishing activiites cause locally

significant impacts on individual reefs and to slow

growing species such as vase sponges (moderate) and

may cause impacts felt at the population level (high).

Low impacts to soft bottom habitat were identified

due to the ability of the resources to quickly recolonize following disturbances.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The

reasonably foreseeable projects and the hypothetical

projects anticipated from the 36 undeveloped leases

are detailed in the Cumulative Impact Section. Refer

to figures 6.1.3-1,2 and 3 for locations of hypothetical

platforms analyzed in this scenario.

The oil and gas activity with the highest potential to impact seafloor resources is pipeline construction during development activities due to the high

number of anchoring events. In the proposed hypothetical development scenario, offshore pipelines are

proposed to connect the Bonito platform to Platform

Irene, to connect the SMB platforms to the most northern SMB platform, and to bring combined production

to shore at Casmalia. New pipelines are also proposed

connecting the Gato platform to onshore facilities at

Los Flores, coming ashore in the same pipeline corridor as for the SYU pipelines. In this scenario, it is

assumed that a lay barge would be used to place the

pipelines, making one pass per line. Specific impacts

from anchors are discussed in detail in section 5.2.4.1.

Assuming platform locations are 1,000 m (3280

feet) from identified hard bottom habitat, drilling discharges would be low. If new platforms were located

within 325 m (1,000 feet) of this habitat, impacts from

smothering would be likely, causing moderate impacts.

If facilities were located between 325 m (1,000 feet)

and 1,000 m (3280 feet) from hard bottom, the severity of the impact would depend on the water depth,

current direction and other factors (low to moderate).

Refer to section 5.2.4.1 for a detailed discussion of

impacts from discharges.

Abandonment of platforms have the potential

to create similar impacts to those contemplated during installation of the platforms, a moderate impact

(anchoring impacts, turbidity increases). Additionally, the loss of the habitat provided by the platform

itself will adversely affect the environment. While is

it obvious that the platforms provide a hard substrate

that is utilized by many plants, animals and fish; it is
6-37

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

not yet understood what the overall contribution the

platforms make to the ecosystem in the Channel. This

problem is complicated by the fact that the platforms

are manmade structures that do not exactly mimic

natural rocky reefs. Several MMS-funded studies are

looking at different aspects of this problem so that

MMS can make a scientific evaluation of their actual

contribution to the local ecosystem and what loss of

one or more would represent. One study by Continental Shelf Associates will attempt to compare natural reef habitats with adjacent platform habitat. Another study being conducted by the University of California at Santa Barbara is examining the competition

and other biological forces that determine zonation

patterns seen on platforms. Several studies conducted

by USGS and the University of California are addressing fish resources associated with the platforms.

Point Sal and Purisima Unit: Approximately

3,000 anchoring events occurred when the oil, gas and

water lines were constructed for the Point Arguello

platforms. Of these, roughly two-thirds of the anchoring events occurred in laying the ten-mile lines to

shore, which would be comparable to laying three of

the four consolidated lines being laid the ten miles to

shore from proposed SMB platform B. The other

interplatform pipelines are speculated to be almost as

long, measuring seven to eight miles each. Based on

the estimate from the Point Arguello construction, it

is estimated that 7-8,000 anchoring events will be required for all pipeline construction activities in these

two units. Due to the lack of rocky features in the

Point Sal and Purisima Units, it is reasonable to assume that anchoring on rocky features would be able

to avoid impacting hard substrate habitat. However,

if pipeline routes were to travel near hard bottom features, impacts could be moderate from anchoring activities given the sheer number of events that could

occur on one feature. Abandonment of the platforms

could also cause moderate impacts, both from anchoring impacts and also due to the loss of habitat. Impacts from anchoring on the soft bottom habitat would

cause localized turbidity near the bottom that would

disperse rapidly in the currents and have no significant impacts on benthic organisms (URS, 1986).

Bonito Unit: Anchoring activity for up to 1,000

anchors for interplatform pipelines and installation

of a platform could cause moderate impacts if anchors

impact identified hard bottom habitat in the canyons

due to the high number of anchoring events which

could impact hard substrate habitat. Abandonment

of the platforms could also cause moderate impacts

due to anchoring events and loss of habitat from the

platform structure itself.

Gato Canyon Unit: Anchoring activity, several

hundred events, could cause moderate impacts due to

the high number of anchoring events which could

impact hard substrate habitat. Abandonment of the

platforms could also cause moderate impacts due to

anchoring events and loss of habitat from the platform structure itself.

Impacts from abandonment could be moderate

due to the potential to impact hard bottom features

on the north part of the lease.

Other OCS activity from other Undeveloped

Leases. Reasonably foreseeable activities on the other

undeveloped leases include drilling exploratory or

development wells from existing platforms into Rocky

Point Unit, Cavern Point Unit, and possibly State

leases. These activities would add drilling muds and

cuttings to the environment, which except for the drilling from Point Arguello platforms into Rocky Point

Unit, would not be near hard bottom features. Discharges from Point Arguello platforms were monitored

over a ten-year; based on that study, the additional

drilling discharges are expected to cause low impacts.

The only other reasonably foreseeable activity that

could impact seafloor resources is the abandonment

of an old well in the Sword Unit. As proposed, anchoring avoids potential hard bottom substrate and

anticipated impacts to seafloor resources are low. The

potential for accidental oil spills is not discussed because it would not be expected to impact seafloor resources.

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030): Seafloor resources are impacted by several cumulative

sources. Bottom trawling by commercial fishermen

has the highest potential to directly impact hard bottom habitat by removing marine plants, corals, and

sessile organisms, upending rocks, leveling rock formations and resuspending sediments These impacts

are moderate to high. Trawling activities also impact

soft bottom habitat by altering the habitat temporarily

and increasing turbidity, a low impact. Fiber optic

cable installations cross canyons and other hard bottom features and will be buried in soft bottom habitat,

a low impact. Natural turbidity flows, which are especially pronounced during extreme flooding events,

produce large volumes of sedimentation and turbidity

over a large area. These flows can contribute low to

moderate impacts on seafloor resources.

The proposal to drill five delineation wells impacts seafloor resources through limited anchoring

activities and limited discharges. As proposed, a few

wellsites are located near canyons or other hard bottom areas and impacts such as physical disturbance,

increased turbidity and smothering could result in

moderate impacts. The hypothetical development activities and reasonably foreseeable activities from the

36 undeveloped leases could contribute impacts to

seafloor resources through anchoring, discharges during installation and drilling, and removal of habitat

during abandonment. Impacts range from low to

moderate, depending on whether hard bottom habitat is affected.
6-38

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

Based on studies of anchoring during development activities, properly mitigated anchoring activity

offshore during construction should not produce significant impacts on the offshore biota (Hardin et al.,

1993). These impacts can be reduced if platforms and

pipelines avoid hard bottom and if anchoring activities during installation include vertical handling procedures, anchor handling boats, shut down plans during inclement weather, precautions against dragging

individual anchors and post-installation monitoring.

6.2.5 CUMULATIVE KELP BED IMPACTS

(2002-2030)

This section examines

• the cumulative impacts to kelp beds without

the development of the 36 leases in the period

2002 to 2030;

• the additional cumulative impacts to kelp beds

from development of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to section 5.2.5 for a discussion of effects

from the proposed action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in section 5.2.5.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030):

The cumulative introduction section describes

the projects considered in the cumulative analysis.

Cumulative impacts to kelp resources include natural storm events, El Nino events with the increased

water temperature, urchin predation and commercial

fishing activities, point source discharges, kelp harvesting, boat traffic and nearshore construction activities.

Natural Storms. Seasonal storm events, and

especially extreme storm events, can significantly reduce kelp beds by ripping up fronds in the nearshore

area, a moderate impact. Storms also introduce large

amounts of sedimentation, which impact kelp bed resources by reducing productivity, a low impact.

El Nino. Weather conditions brought about during El Nino significantly impact kelp resources. The

increased ocean water temperatures, extreme storm

events, and heavy sedimentation of nearshore waters

associated periodic El Nino events provide the largest

source of impact to nearshore kelp beds. The most

significant of these is the increased water temperature. Kelp prefers cool water and significant diebacks

occur during warm water trends which last several

years, a high impact since it is felt regionally at the

population level. Sedimentation associated with the

most recent El Nino produced turbid waters over a

mile offshore in the Channel, throughout the kelp

zone, and lasted several weeks. This turbidity directly

impacts the productivity of the kelp and impacts kelp

associated animals, a low to moderate impact depending on the duration of the turbidity.

Urchin Predation/Commercial Fishing. Natural factors such as predation by urchins, when combined with other sources of impact, namely, commercial fishing, have a significant impact on the size and

health of kelp be. This is a high impact that is felt at

the population level. In a healthy kelp bed, urchins

play an important role and do not deplete the kelp

resource. However, in areas where commercial fishing occurs, natural urchin predators are eliminated,

and the natural balance between red and purple urchins is broken, an ecological imbalance occurs. “Urchin barrens” are created, that is, areas heavily populated by urchins and devoid of kelp and other algae.

The size of the kelp beds is highly variable and

dependent on environmental and anthropogenic factors. As mentioned before, kelp is very sensitive to

changes in water temperature, dying back substantially during El Nino warm water events and reestablishing during cooler water periods. During warm

water years, both kelp and urchins die off, but the

urchins fare better than the kelp. Urchins will forage

large areas, move into the intertidal, and will forage a

wide range of species if kelp is not available. Because

urchins can survive the warm water periods, when

the cooler water returns in urchin barrens, kelp cannot reestablish, even though water temperature is

optimal for kelp. In areas actively monitored by the

National Park Service, areas off Santa Barbara Island,

the south side of Santa Cruz Island and non-reserve

parts of Anacapa Island continue to be urchin barrens and have not come back despite a recent influx

of cool water. In the National Park Service’s monitoring in 1999, they found 11of 16 kelp monitoring

sites were dominated by echinoderms. The purple

urchin was dominant at all but two sites; sea cucumbers and the brittle star were also dominant at two

sites occupied by purple urchins (Kelp Forest Inquirer,

2000).

This is evidenced by the monitoring of kelp beds

within and outside no-take reserves at Anacapa Island and that fact that the beds within the reserve

retain healthy kelp communities (pers. comm., D.

Lerma, 2001, J. Engle, 2001).

Dredging and Point Source Discharges. A number of factors were considered in a symposium to study

the effect of waste disposal on kelp (Bascom, 1983).

While it was recognized that there was a general lack

of data concerning the complexity of natural and manmade factors that affect kelp (Jackson, 1983), it was

speculated that losses of kelp canopy can result from

increases in suspended sediment and associated reductions in water clarity resulting from point source

discharges (Dean and Deysher, 1983). Thermal dis-
6-39

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

charges are believed responsible for the reduction of

kelp beds near San Onofre in near shore waters (Dean

and Deysher, 1983). Further it was speculated that

sewage outfalls might provide a food source for sea

urchins in kelp forests, allowing their persistence long

after the kelp was gone and preventing natural reestablishment (North, 1983). This would serve to promote and exacerbate the formation of urchin barrens

discussed earlier.

Kelp Harvesting. Kelco regularly harvests the

top few feet of kelp for use in a variety of commercial

products including ice cream and shampoo. This harvesting is permitted by the California Department of

Fish and Game. This practice has occurred in the

Channel for over twenty years. There are no known

serious impacts to kelp or the kelp community from

the harvesting practices. Kelco has voluntarily cut

back production during El Nino diebacks (pers. comm.

J. Engle). Impacts from continued harvesting is expected to be low.

Boat Traffic. Boat traffic through kelp beds impacts the kelp community through the breakage of

kelp fronds, introduction of pollutants such as diesel,

noise that scatters associated fish, and potential injury to visiting sea otters. Impacts range from low to

moderate, depending on the number of boating activities in or adjacent to defined kelp beds. This impact

is especially pronounced near piers and harbors where

boat traffic is heaviest.

Nearshore Construction Activities. Nearshore

construction activities such as construction of pipelines, sewage outfall lines, or thermal discharge pipes

impact kelp beds by displacing kelp plants, increasing

local turbidity, temporarily displacing resident animals

and altering the habitat over a localized area. These

are generally localized, low impacts, lasting a few

weeks to a few months. Reestablishment of kelp may

take longer if the impact occurs during a period of

dieback from warm oceanic waters.

INCREMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE 36

UNDEVELOPED LEASES (2002-2030).

Potential sources of impact from the 36 undeveloped leases include pipeline construction in the

nearshore area, boat traffic and oil spills.

Installation of the central pipeline through the

surf zone in the Santa Maria Basin to support Purisma

Point Unit and Point Sal Unit production would be

expected to cause low impacts to nearshore resources

as no kelp beds along that part of the coastline.

The nearshore crossing for the Gato Canyon

pipelines would be expected to cause impacts similar

or less than the construction of the Santa Ynez pipelines through this same crossing. Kelp and other

macroalgae characterize the nearshore biota along the

pipeline corridor. Surficial kelp is founded on both

rocky and sedimentary bottom in water depths from –

20 to –30 feet (Exxon, 1991). Dominant understory

algal plants include the sea palm (Pterogophora) and

a flowering plant, (Zostera cf Asiatica).

Based on previous experience, a trenched crossing would be expected to take 1-2 months to move

from the subtidal area to the intertidal. Conduits have

already been installed in the nearshore area in the

Gato Canyon area, put in place to lessen future impacts through the same area. Less disruption is likely

to kelp resources than in the previous pipeline installation for any future pipeline in the Gato Canyon area,

a low impact. Current technology for shoreline crossings, being used commonly by fiber optic cable companies, entails a drilled crossing started a half mile or

more offshore and drilled through the surf zone to an

onshore location 1,000 feet onshore. This technology

would further reduce disruption to resources in the

kelp beds as well as in the surf zone. Drilled crossings also take less time to complete, roughly half that

of a conventional trenching activity. Impacts from

nearshore construction to kelp resources are expected

to be low.

Crewboats and supply boats servicing offshore

facilities use designated vessel traffic corridors, which,

among other things, mitigate impacts to kelp bed habitat. Impacts from OCS related boat traffic are expected to be low for this reason.

Kelp beds produce a natural oil that largely prevents oil from adhering to their fronds (BLM, 1982).

Kelp forests, while in the area of oil from the 1969

blowout, were largely unaffected. It is not anticipated

that oil spills will significantly impact kelp beds themselves, though their inhabitants (sea otters, for example) could be adversely affected (refer to the Marine Mammal and Fish Resources sections in this document).

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030): Kelp

resources are the most heavily impacted by the synergistic affect El Nino warm water conditions play in

the role between kelp, sea urchins, and commercial

fishing. Fishing practices reducing urchin predators

and resulting in high increases in urchin predation

on kelp, along with the dieback conditions caused by

warm water, have a high impact on the kelp bed health.

Other activities such as harvesting, discharges and

boat traffic provide ongoing low levels of impact.

Nearshore construction activities create localized disturbances. The incremental impact of offshore OCS

development including potential development of the

36 undeveloped leases is low and results primarily

from localized disturbances in the surf zone during

pipeline construction activities.
6-40

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

6.2.6 CUMULATIVE FISH RESOURCES

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

This section examines:

• the cumulative impacts to marine fish resources without the development of the 36

leases in the period 2002 to 2030;

• the additional cumulative impacts to marine

fish resources from development of the 36

leases in the period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.6 for a discussion of effects

from the proposed action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in Section 5.2.6.

There are no scheduled or anticipated oil and

gas lease sales in Federal waters of the Pacific OCS or

in State waters. Thus, no additional production platforms are expected to be installed on the Pacific OCS

after the development of the current active leases and

the 36 undeveloped leases.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development of the

36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030):

The production from existing platforms on the

Pacific OCS and in State waters is expected to continue through 2025. Table 5.1.2.2-1 shows the number of new wells expected to be drilled by field from

existing platforms. Discharge volumes are expected

to be at or below the levels identified in table 4.0.1-8.

The major impact agents are those discussed in section 5.2.6.2. Impacts to fish resources and EFH from

future activities other than decommissioning are expected to be low and will not add significantly to the

overall impacts on fish resources of the SCB. Accidental oil spills present an ongoing source of potential impacts to fish resources. The cumulative risk of

oil spills arises from multiple sources, including offshore oil and gas activities in Federal and State waters and both Alaskan and foreign-import tankering.

Tankering represents the greatest risk of an oil spill

in the SCB.

Decommissioning. The oil and gas extraction

activities on the existing Pacific Region OCS units

currently under development will continue through

2025. Over the next 30 years all existing oil and gas

platforms in Federal and State waters are expected to

be removed. Between 2010 and 2025, MMS predicts

that platforms will be decommissioned in groups of 3-

9 based on age, size, geographic location, and heavy

lift vessel (HLV) capability.

Section 5.2.6.2 discusses the potential cumulative impacts to marine fish resources from offshore

facility decommissioning activities, including the removal of wells, platforms, and associated pipelines.

Table 4.0.1-6 presents estimated removal dates for

existing oil and gas structures offshore southern California. It is expected that no OCS platforms in the

Santa Barbara Channel or Santa Maria Basin will be

removed before 2012, and a few may be in place as

late as 2030 (or 2035, in the case of Platform Irene if

the Tranquillon Ridge development occurs).

As discussed in section 5.2.6.1.2 (Mitigation

FR1), implementation of mitigation similar to that

employed for platform removal in the Gulf of Mexico

would mitigate to the maximum extent feasible damage to habitat and any marine fish injury or mortality

that would occur as a result of the use of explosives in

decommissioning operations. Likely impacts to marine fish resources would include mortality to fish

species (especially those with air bladders) occurring

in the immediate vicinity of the structure. In addition to these effects, decommissioning activities would

result in loss of the artificial habitat to fish resources,

and potential damage to natural habitat in the immediate area. The principal potential impacts to natural

habitat would be similar to those expected to occur as

the result of construction activities, and are described

in section 5.2.6.1.

Effluent discharges. Table 5.1.2.2-1 shows anticipated future wells for the existing State and Federal platforms. Effluent discharges are regulated by

EPA under the General NPDES permit. The permitted discharges are based on water quality criteria determined outside the 100 m radius mixing zone beyond each platform’s discharge pipe. However, the

discharge pipes are located directly beneath the platforms where up to 39 species Federally managed in

the Pacific Groundfish Fishery Management Plan have

been documented. Several of the species are in decline due to various factors. EPA has amended the

General NPDES permit to require the platform operators to evaluate the direct lethal, sublethal, and

bioaccumulattive effects of produced water on fish

species occupying the mixing zone. The platform operators will also be required to model dilution and dispersion plumes form the point of discharge. If these

permit requirements indicate substantial adverse effects

to fish species, the platform operators will develop appropriate mitigation measures to protect them.

Oil Spills. Section 5.0 discusses the cumulative

oil spill risk for the project area. Table 5.1-1 presents

the estimated mean number of spills of various sizes

and the probability of their occurrence as a result of

the described activities. The probability of one or more

spills 200 bbl or less in size occurring from existing

and proposed offshore oil and gas activities during the

period 2002-2030 is 73.9 percent (table 5.1-1). The

probability that one or more spills in the 2,000-bbl

range will occur from these activities is 59.1 percent

(table 5.1-1). The risk of a major tanker spill (22,800-

bbl) during this period is estimated to be 90.5 percent

(table 5.1-1).
6-41

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

Impacts to marine fish resources from any oil

spills occurring during this period would be similar to

those described in section 5.2.6.2 for the 200- and

2,000-bbl spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil and gas activities and for the assumed 22,800-

bbl tanker spill.

Accidental oil spills present an ongoing source

of potential impacts to fish resources. The cumulative risk of oil spills arises from multiple sources, including offshore oil and gas activities in Federal and

State waters and both Alaskan and foreign-import

tankering. Tankering represents the greatest risk of

an oil spill in the SCB. This risk is tempered by recently implemented or proposed mitigation (such as

the rerouting of tankers farther offshore along the

central California coast) and, as discussed in section

5.0, by modern oil spill response capabilities. The

mean spill size derived from the U.S. Coast Guard

database for accidents in U.S. waters is 22,000 bbl. A

spill this size could contact up to 161 km of coastline.

Fish resources and EFH would likely experience low

impacts from a spill this size. The water quality from

the Point Conception area north and offshore the

Channel Islands remains good. This area is very productive and is important habitat for many marine fish

species. A large oil spill would impact the water quality of this habitat. Although only minimal adverse

impacts to fish populations and their prey species

would be likely from such an event, EFH in the Southern California Bight is stressed due to overfishing, and

degraded water quality in estuaries south of Point

Conception. Degradation of the water quality north

of Point Conception due to an oil spill would cause

further stress to EFH. The impacts to water quality

from an open ocean spill would be short-term and not

expected to last more than several days.

The potential for an oil spill occurring from continued oil and gas activities at the existing platforms

on the Pacific OCS and State tidelands represents an

insignificant incremental increase to the overall cumulative oil spill risk for fish resources.

Other Activities. As discussed in section 5.2.6.2,

marine fish resources of the SCB are impacted by several fishing and non-fishing sources including dredging and discharge of dredged material, water intake

structures, aquaculture, wastewater discharge, oil and

hazardous waste spills, coastal development, agricultural runoff, commercial marine resource harvesting,

and commercial and recreational fishing. It is difficult to predict whether resource management efforts

will be successful in decreasing the level of impacts

from these sources. However, it is likely that efforts

will continue and that future mitigation such as fisheries closures, and habitat protection and avoidance

efforts and strict pollutant discharge requirements will

be legislated or mandated by regulatory agencies.

INCREMENTAL IMPACTS OF

DEVELOPMENT OF THE 36 UNDEVELOPED

LEASES (2002-2030):

The proposed delineation wells on the 4 units

will likely lead to the development of the remaining

36 undeveloped leases on the Pacific OCS. Potential

sources of impacts to fish resources and EFH would

come from emplacement and decommissioning of up

to 5 platforms and associated activities, effluent discharges, new pipelines, and oil spills.

OCS platform emplacement and removal. Three

platforms would be needed to recover reserves in the

northern SMB including Lion Rock, Purisima Point,

Point Sal, and Santa Maria Units. One platform would

be needed to develop the Bonito Unit, and another

would be needed to develop the Gato Canyon Unit.

On a long-term local basis, anchor scars and damage

to the bottom could persist, thus altering the habitat

quality for species associated with hard bottom substrate. The platforms would also become home to species associated with hard bottom substrate which could

adversely effect native habitat and species composition of the area. Species associated with soft bottom

that were in the area before the platform would likely

be adversely impacted by platform emplacement.

Mussel mounds would likely develop beneath the platform structures, further altering the natural habitat

of the area. The impacts of removal were discussed

earlier in this section.

The emplacement and removal of 5 new platforms on the Pacific OCS would have low to moderate

regional impacts on fish stocks and EFH.

Effluent discharges. The hypothetical development scenario anticipates that three platforms with

60 well slots each would be placed in the northern

Santa Maria Basin area. One platform with 36 well

slots would be placed on the Bonito Unit, and one platform with 28 well slots would be placed on the Gato

Canyon Unit. Each of the three platforms anticipated

on the northern Santa Maria Basin would discharge

approximately 650,000 bbl of drilling muds and

150,000 bbl of drilling cuttings from 50 – 55 wells over

the life of the platforms. The hypothetical platform

on the Bonito Unit would discharge approximately

342,000 bbl of drilling muds and 82,000 bbl of cuttings from 27 wells. The Gato Canyon platform would

discharge 193,000 bbl of drilling muds and 68,000 bbl

of cuttings from 24 wells over its anticipated lifetime.

Though drilling muds are nontoxic to slightly

toxic to fish (Neff, 1987), the physical effects of increased sedimentation can bury hard bottom habitat

and food organisms in the local area. Becausew the

direct and indirect effects of drilling muds and cuttings on fish resources and their food supplies and

habitat are localized, the cumulative effects from discharges of drilling muds and cuttings on fish resources
6-42

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

and EFH are low.

Produced water from the northern and southern platforms on the northern Santa Maria Basin

would be discharged from the central platform. Produced water from the Bonito Unit platform would be

discharged at platform Irene. No impacts to fish resources or EFH are expected from discharged produced

water outside the 100 m mixing zone around the discharge point. As described previously, the fish species located within the 100 m mixing zone of the produced water discharge point may experience sublethal impacts. These impacts would not be expected to

add to the cumulative effects on fish resources in the

SCB.

Pipelines and power cables. The anticipated platforms in the northern SMB would require approximately 100 mi of pipeline and 80 mi of power cable.

The Bonito Unit platform would require 14 mi of pipeline and 19 mi of power cable. The Gato Canyon Unit

platform would require 16 mi of pipeline and 11 mi of

power cable. Potential impacts to fish resource habitat including hard bottom and kelp beds could result

due to anchoring activities by the lay barge, and laying the pipeline through habitat areas. Pre-activity

site surveys, active monitoring of the project, and postactivity surveys would help mitigate the impacts.

Medium impacts to fish resources and EFH could occur if contact and damage to significant habitat areas

is unavoidable. Offsite mitigation and restoration of

kelp beds and hard bottom would be required.

Oil spills. If all 36 leases are developed, under

the most likely development scenario the probability

of one or more spills 200 bbl or less in size occurring

from these activities is 98.8 percent (section 5.0, table

5.1-1). The probability that one or more spills in the

2,000-bbl range will occur from these activities under

the most likely development scenario is 53.9 percent.

Impacts to fish resources and EFH from any oil

spills occurring as a result of the development of the

36 undeveloped leases would be similar to those described above for the 200- and 2,000-bbl spills assumed

to occur as a result of offshore oil and gas activities

and for the assumed 22,800-bbl tanker spill.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION (2002-2030):

Several fish stocks in the SCB are depressed. Unfortunately, it is difficult to apportion the reasons for

a fishery’s demise among overfishing, habitat degradation, pollution, and natural variability of the population. However, as fishery managers gather more

detailed knowledge about fish life histories, including

potential linkages between fish recruitment and longterm changes in ocean climate, they will be better able

to prevent the overexploitation and resulting population crashes of one fish species after another. Many

of these fish stocks have been monitored for less than

the span of one of their generations. It may take decades of monitoring to fully ascertain the long-term

feasibility of current fishery restrictions, proposed

marine protected areas, and other fishery management

options. The 1996 amendments to the MagnusenStevens Act addresses sustainable fisheries and sets

guidelines for protecting marine fish resources and

habitat from fishing related and non-fishing related

activities.

Some routine offshore oil and gas activities, including construction and drilling, would likely be

heaviest during the years 2007-2012; much of this

activity would be related to the development of the 36

undeveloped leases. Construction activities would

occur in the Santa Maria Basin and, to a lesser extent, the western Santa Barbara Channel. Decommissioning of existing offshore oil and gas facilities

will begin in the eastern Channel about 2012 and shift

westward over a period of years. Thus, there will be

periods of potentially habitat altering activities occurring in different parts of the project area at various

times. Throughout these periods, routine activities

such as production, routine maintenance, and vessel

and helicopter support traffic will continue.

Overall, the impacts to fish resources in the

project area from offshore oil and gas activities, primarily construction and decommissioning, will increase over present levels. However, the areas covered by these activities will be small relative to the

available marine fish habitat, and the disturbance will

be localized. Cumulative impacts to fish resources and

EFH from all the routine oil and gas activities assumed

to take place between 2002 and 2030, including those

associated with the development of the 36 undeveloped leases, are expected to be moderate.

Accidental oil spills present an ongoing source

of potential impacts to fish resources. The cumulative risk of oil spills arises from multiple sources, including offshore oil and gas activities in Federal and

State waters and both Alaskan and foreign-import

tankering. The greatest oil spill risk to fish resources

and EFH in the project area results from tankering

operations. This risk is tempered by recently implemented or proposed mitigation (such as the rerouting

of tankers farther offshore along the central California coast) and, as discussed in section 5.0, by modern

oil spill response capabilities. Impacts to fish resources

and EFH from the oil spills assumed to occur in the

project area during the period 2002-2030 could range

from low to moderate, depending on location, season,

volume, and a number of other factors.

Without development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, the probabilities that one or more oil spills will

occur during the period 2002-2030 from existing OCS

oil and gas activities are 94.9 percent for a spill of 200

bbl or less and 41.2 percent for a spill of 2,000 bbl.

The probability that an oil spill will occur as a result
6-43

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

of the development of the 36 undeveloped leases are

98.8 percent (200 bbl or less) and 53.9 percent (2,000

bbl). Thus, the potential for an oil spill occurring

from development of the 36 undeveloped leases represents a measurable incremental increase to the overall cumulative oil spill risk for fish resources and EFH

of the SCB.

6.2.7 CUMULATIVE MARINE AND

COASTAL BIRD IMPACTS (2002-2030)

For the 2002-2030 time period, this analysis considers the cumulative impacts to marine and coastal

birds from: 1) existing and future Federal and State

offshore oil activity, 2) crude oil imports by tanker, 3)

other anthropogenic (military activities, recreation,

commercial fishing) and non-anthropogenic (e.g., El

Ni–o events) impact sources, and 4) proposed and potential development of 36 currently undeveloped OCS

leases.

Refer to section 5.2.7 for a discussion of effects

from the Proposed Action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the analysis in section 5.2.7.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 undeveloped leases (2002-2030): Cumulative impacts related to offshore oil and gas activities

that may have long-term (e.g., months or years) effects on marine and coastal birds are oil spills, disturbance from helicopter flights, and platform decommissioning. These impacts have occurred (in the case of

past and present operations and past oil spills) or may

occur (in the case of proposed projects, potential oil

spills, and platform decommissioning) from existing

Federal and State projects and proposed State projects

(e.g., Tranquillon Ridge) whether or not the 36 undeveloped leases are developed. Other activities associated with oil and gas development, including exploration activities, platform installation and operation,

pipeline construction, and vessel traffic, have, at most,

very short-term (e.g., a few minutes to a few weeks),

biologically unimportant (e.g., movement out of the

path of an approaching vessel) effects on birds and do

not contribute to cumulative impacts.

Accidental OCS Oil Spills. Historically, birds in

the project area have been affected by OCS-related

oil spills (see section 4.6.5). Based on the discussion

of oil spill risks in section 5.1.3, the most likely scenario for existing Federal and State offshore oil production and projects proposed by the State is that one

or more oil spills in the 50-1,000-bbl range would occur from offshore oil and gas activities over the period 2002-2030, and that such a spill would most likely

be 200 bbl or less in volume. The maximum reasonably foreseeable oil spill volume from future offshore

oil and gas activities is 2,000 bbl, assumed for purposes of analysis to be a pipeline spill.

Spilled oil may affect birds in several ways: 1)

direct contact with floating or beached oil; 2) toxic

reactions; 3) damage to bird habitat; and 4) damage

to food organisms. Oil-related mortality is highly dependent on the life histories of the bird species involved. Birds that spend much of their time feeding

or resting on the surface of the water are more vulnerable to oil spills (King and Sanger, 1979). Direct

contact with even small amounts of oil can be fatal,

depending on the species involved. Studies by Dr.

Michael Fry (Nero and Associates, 1987) have found

that exposure to as little as 3 ml of oil (which amounts

to just less than a teaspoon) spread evenly on the wings

and breast of Cassin’s auklets caused severely matted

plumage and was a lethal dose. The principal cause

of mortality from oil contact in birds is from feather

matting, which destroys the insulating properties of

the feathers (Erasmus et al., 1981) and leads to death

from hypothermia. Oiling can also result in a loss of

buoyancy, which inhibits a bird’s ability to rest or sleep

on the water (Hawkes, 1961), and can diminish swimming and flying ability (Clark, 1984). Also, an oiled

bird’s natural tendency is to preen itself in an attempt

to remove oil from the plumage. The acute toxicity of

such ingested oil (crude or refined) depends on many

factors, including the amount of weathering and

amount of oil ingested. Birds that receive lethal doses

succumb to a host of physiologic dysfunctions (e.g.,

inflammation of the digestive tract, liver dysfunction,

kidney failure, lipid pneumonia and dehydration)

(Hartung and Hunt, 1966). Oil that is ingested as a

result of preening or eating contaminated prey can

cause abnormalities in reproductive physiology, including adverse effects on egg production (Ainley et al.,

1981; Holmes, 1984; Nero and Associates, 1987). In

addition, the transfer of oil from adults to eggs can

result in reduced hatchability, increased incidence of

deformities, and reduced growth rates in young

(Patten and Patten, 1977; Stickel and Dieter, 1979).

Growth reduction may also be the indirect result of

an oiled parent’s inability to deliver sufficient food to

nestlings (Trivelpiece et al., 1984).

Cleanup efforts to remove spilled oil may have

impacts of their own. Oil spill response and cleanup

activities may involve intrusion into sensitive areas.

Human presence while booming off an area, cleaning

oil off beaches, or attempting to capture oiled wildlife

for rehabilitation near seabird colonies may cause

flushing from nests or temporary abandonment. Additionally, many seabirds react to disturbance by leaving their roosts or nests to go sit on the water somewhere nearby. In other words, disturbance of the

colony may have the effect of flushing the birds into

oiled water. This potential should be evaluated on a

case-by-case basis in the event of a spill, prior to a

decision to approach a roost or breeding colony.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

The level of impact on birds from an oil spill depends on a variety of factors, including the type, rate,

and volume of oil spilled and the weather and oceanographic conditions at the time of the spill. These parameters would determine the quantity of oil that is

dispersed into the water column; the degree of weathering, evaporation, and dispersion of the oil before it

contacts a shoreline; the actual amount, concentration, and composition of the oil at the time of shoreline or habitat contact; and a measure of the toxicity

of the oil. As discussed previously, the marine and

coastal bird community in southern California is also

complex, with the number of species, the abundance

of each species, and their activity (e.g., nesting, migrating, or wintering) in the project area varying with

location and time of year. There are also varying degrees of vulnerability to the effects of an oil spill, with

seabirds generally being the most sensitive.

Although there is not a high degree of correlation between the size of a spill and the number of birds

affected, a 200-bbl spill will generally have far less

impact than one of several thousand barrels. However, a spill in the range of 200 bbl would likely result

in the loss of at least some seabirds and a few shorebirds, if it were to contact land (e.g., the 163-bbl Torch

pipeline spill off Vandenberg AFB, resulted in the loss

of seabirds and shorebirds). Because of weathering,

dispersion, and cleanup efforts, the effects of a 200-

bbl spill would most likely be limited to the general

vicinity of the source of the spill. If the spill remains

well offshore and does not contact the mainland or

islands, the birds that would most likely be affected

would include shearwaters, fulmars, phaloropes, gulls,

common murres and other alcids. If the spill approaches the mainland coast, especially if it occurs

during the winter months when many nearshore species are in the project area, the birds that would most

likely be affected include loons, western grebes, California brown pelicans, cormorants, and surf scoters.

If contact with the shore occurs, some shorebirds

might also become oiled or displaced to other areas;

cleanup efforts could exacerbate impacts on shorebirds. It is estimated that a 200-bbl spill could contact from about 1 km (95% probability) to 19 km (5%

probability) of coastline (see section 5.1.3). The shorebirds that might be affected include black-bellied plovers, whimbrels, marbled godwits, willets, black turnstones, and sanderlings. Waterfowl and marshbirds

could also be affected if oil contacts a wetland (e.g.,

Carpinteria Marsh or Mugu Lagoon), where these

birds occur. Probably the most serious effects would

result if a 200-bbl spill were to occur in close proximity to and/or contact one of the Channel Islands during the breeding season, which could result in both

the loss of nesting adults and disruption in nesting

activities. Cleanup efforts near or on the islands could

exacerbate the impact of a spill on nesting seabirds,

which are especially sensitive to disturbance. Because

of the actions of weathering, dispersion, and cleanup

efforts, for a 200-bbl spill to contact one of the islands,

it would most likely have to originate from one of the

platforms (Grace, Gilda, Gail, or Gina) or associated

pipelines at the eastern end of the Santa Barbara

Channel. A 200-bbl spill from this area could contact

Anacapa Island or the east end of Santa Cruz Island,

both of which are within the Channel Islands National

Marine Sanctuary and National Park. The breeding

birds that could be affected in these areas include:

ashy storm-petrels, California brown pelicans (see

section 5.4.7), double-crested and Brandt’s cormorants, black oystercatchers, western gulls, pigeon

guillemots, and cassin’s auklets.

By its very size, the impacts of a 2,000-bbl spill

on birds would likely be much greater than that of a

200-bbl spill, depending on the timing, location, and

movements of each spill. Such a large spill is likely to

affect a much larger area than a 200-bbl spill, and

could, therefore, contact a larger number of birds. It

is estimated that a 2,000-bbl spill could contact from

about 3 km (95% probability) to 53 km (5% probability) of coastline (see section 5.1.3). Unlike the smaller,

200-bbl spill, which would probably only contact

Anacapa Island and part of Santa Cruz Island (see

above), a 2,000-bbl spill is more likely to contact any

one of the northern Channel Islands, including the

extensive seabird colonies on San Miguel Island, which

is also located within the Channel Islands National

Marine Sanctuary and National Park. A 2,000-bbl spill

is also more likely to contact a wetland or possibly

even more than one.

Overall, the impacts on marine and coastal birds

of potential oil spills from existing Federal, State, and

State-proposed oil and gas operations is expected to

be low. However, impacts would increase to moderate

if a 2,000-bbl spill contacts seabird nesting colonies

on the Channel Islands.

Helicopter Traffic. Another potential source of

impacts from existing and proposed Federal and State

offshore oil operations is helicopters. The level of

helicopter traffic related to offshore oil and gas activities in the project area is described in section 5.1.2.

Routinely, 8-10 helicopter trips occur offshore each

day, including those contracted by MMS. Helicopter

flights related to offshore oil may originate from three

locations, depending on the purpose and destination

of the flights: the Camarillo Airport in Ventura County,

and the Santa Barbara and Santa Maria Airports in

Santa Barbara County. See section 5.4.5.1.1, for a discussion of the potential effects of helicopters on birds.

Probably the most sensitive birds are the nesting seabirds, especially those that nest on cliffs and offshore

rocks. The few seabirds that nest along the mainland

coast are the only ones that are likely to be exposed to

OCS-related helicopter traffic, as air traffic over the
6-45

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary and the

Channel Islands National Park, where most of the

breeding seabirds in southern California occur, is restricted to altitudes greater than 1,000 feet. The seabirds that nest along the mainland coast and the helicopter flight patterns in this area are described in section 5.4.5.1.1. Several international and numerous

smaller airports occur along the southern California

coast along with several military airports, and air traffic is a constant daily or even hourly occurrence. Birds

have probably become habituated to air traffic at least

to some extent in the project area. Overall, no impacts to marine and coastal birds are expected from

helicopter traffic resulting from existing Federal offshore oil operations.

Platform Decommissioning. Section 2 discusses

the process of delineation well abandonment and the

possibility of impacts to marine birds. Section 5.1.2

describes the processes involved in decommissioning

offshore facilities. For purposes of analysis, it is assumed that decommissioning would encompass the

complete removal of a platform and associated pipelines, with none of the leg structure left in place to

form an artificial reef. Platform removal would only

have an effect on birds if explosives are used in the

process. To date, only one OCS facility in the Pacific

Region has been decommissioned by non-explosive

means—the Offshore Storage and Treatment (OS&T)

vessel that formerly served the Santa Ynez Unit platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel. In addition, six

offshore platforms in State waters in the Channel have

been removed with the use of explosives—two in 1988

and four in 1996 (table 4.0.1-6). Other OCS platforms

may be removed during the period 2002-2030. Table

4.0.1-6 presents estimated removal dates for existing

oil and gas structures offshore southern California.

It is expected that no OCS platforms in the Santa

Barbara Channel or Santa Maria Basin will be removed before 2012, and a few may be in place as late

as 2025 (or 2035, in the case of Platform Irene if the

Tranquillon Ridge development occurs). Although

no impacts to birds have been reported to result from

platform removal, under certain circumstances as discussed in section 5.2.7.1, it is possible that birds could

be injured or killed as a result of explosives used for

platform removal. Although no impacts to marine

birds are expected as a result of delineation well abandonment associated with the proposed projects (section 5.2.7.1), a few could be injured or killed with platform decommissioning because of the greater number of explosive charges used; shorebirds, marshbirds,

and waterfowl would not be affected.

Impacts from Non-Offshore Oil Sources. Based

on the discussion of oil spill risks in section 5.1.3, the

mean size for an oil spill from a tanker accident is

assumed to be 22,800 bbl. By its very size, a 22,800-

bbl spill could have far greater impacts to marine and

coastal birds than those from offshore oil operations

discussed above, depending on the location, timing,

and movement of the various-sized spills. The impacts

of this size spill on marine and coastal birds would be

far worse than those from offshore oil operations discussed above. It is estimated that a 22,800-bbl spill

could contact from about 9 km (95% probability) to

160 km (5% probability) of coastline (see section 5.1.3).

However, the possibility of contact with the shore is

ameliorated somewhat by the fact that U.S. oil tankers voluntarily maintain a distance of 90 km (50 nm)

from the mainland for much of their route. The

cleanup process for this size spill would be much more

difficult and protracted compared to that for the smaller

spills discussed above, especially if a significant proportion of the oil reaches shore. Overall, the impact

to marine and coastal birds of a 22,800-bbl, non-OCS

tanker spill is expected to range from moderate to high,

depending on the timing, location, and movement of

the spill.

Other factors that have historically contributed

to cumulative impacts on marine and coastal birds

include climate and weather events (e.g., El Ni–o

events), pollution (e.g., DDT), habitat loss (e.g., conversion of wetland to marinas), introduced predators

(e.g., rats), commercial fishing (e.g., gill net mortality) and disturbance (e.g., beach use, hikers, sea

kayakers). Overall, the cumulative impacts of these

factors on marine and coastal birds range from low to

moderate, depending on the species.

Incremental Impacts of Development of the

36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The potential

scenario for the exploration and development of the

36 currently undeveloped leases is described in section 5.1. Of the activities and possible accidental events

described in section 5.1, oil spills, disturbance from

helicopter flights, and platform decommissioning may

have long-term (e.g., months or years) effects on marine and coastal birds. Other activities associated with

oil and gas development, including exploration activities, platform and pipeline construction, and vessel

traffic, have, at most, very short-term (e.g., a few days

or weeks), biologically unimportant (e.g., movement

out of the path of an approaching vessel) effects on

birds and do not contribute to cumulative impacts.

The oil spill risk analysis provided in section 5.1.3

indicates a greater likelihood of both a 200-bbl and a

2,000-bbl oil spill occurring with the development of

the 36 undeveloped leases. However, a greater potential for an oil spill to occur does not necessarily indicate a higher level of impact, and the impacts of oil

spills to marine and coastal birds that may occur as a

result of offshore oil development, including the most

likely development scenario for the 36 leases, remains

low to moderate as described above for existing Federal and State projects and proposed State projects.
6-46

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

Helicopter traffic is expected to increase as a result of the development of the 36 leases, especially

during construction. However, no change is expected

in either the airports used for these flights, the flight

paths to and from the various airports, and the flight

restrictions currently in place (e.g., Vandenberg AFB,

Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary). Therefore, helicopter flights associated with the most likely

development scenario for the 36 leases are not expected to contribute to cumulative impacts on marine

and coastal birds in the project area.

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030): The

cumulative impacts to marine and coastal birds in the

project area from all sources for the period from 2002-

2030, including any activities that may occur in the

36 undeveloped leases, range from moderate to high,

depending on the species involved and the timing, location, and movement of a 22,800-bbl, non-OCS tanker

spill. The likelihood of one or more OCS-related oil

spills is greater with the development of the 36 leases,

but the cumulative impacts remain moderate to high.

6.2.8 CUMULATIVE MARINE MAMMALS

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

This section discusses the cumulative impacts

to marine mammals both without and with the development of the 36 leases in the period 2002-2030. Section 5.2.8.2 discusses the major impact agents associated with routine past, present, and foreseeable offshore oil and gas activities, including the proposed

activities, that may produce impacts during 2002-2006,

the expected duration of the proposed delineation activities. These include noise and disturbance, drilling discharges, and the potential use of explosives in

the decommissioning of offshore facilities. Other, nonOCS sources of impacts to marine mammals, both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic, are also discussed. The significance criteria for the following

analyses remain the same as those presented in section 5.2.8.

Cumulative Impacts without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): This

section examines the cumulative impacts to threatened and endangered marine mammals without the

development of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to

2030. The projects discussed in this section include

past, present, and foreseeable actions that may produce impacts during 2002-2030, the period during

which development of the 36 undeveloped leases would

likely occur (section 6.1). The major impact agents

are those discussed in section 5.2.8.2.

Offshore Oil and Gas Activities. Section 5.2.8.2

describes the routine offshore oil and gas activities

that may result in cumulative impacts to marine mammals. These include geophysical surveys, construction, drilling and production activities with associated

support activities, and the abandonment, or decommissioning, of wells and offshore facilities. As discussed in section 5.2.8.1, the major impact agents expected from these proposed activities are noise and

disturbance and drilling discharges. The potential use

of explosives in the abandonment of wells and offshore

platforms also raises the possibility of lethal impacts

to marine mammals.

Geophysical Surveys. As discussed in section

5.2.8.2, no 2-D or 3-D seismic surveys have been proposed for the Pacific OCS or State waters in the near

future and none are currently foreseen for the period

2002-2030.

Construction. Section 5.2.8.2 discusses the potential cumulative impacts to marine mammals from

construction activities, including the installation of

platform jackets and topsides, the laying of pipelines,

platform hook-up and commissioning, and the initiation of drilling. Currently, no oil and gas lease sales

are scheduled or anticipated in Federal or State waters off California. Therefore, without development

of the 36 undeveloped leases, it is assumed no new

production platforms or pipelines would be installed

during the period 2002-2030.

Development and Production. Section 5.2.8.2

discusses the potential cumulative impacts to marine

mammals from offshore development and production

activities in the Pacific OCS Region. Table 5.1.2.2-1

in section 5.1.2 shows the number of wells expected

to be drilled from existing production platforms. Currently, it is expected that 25 new wells will be drilled

from OCS platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel

and Santa Maria Basin. Production activities are expected to continue on all existing, active platforms

until decommissioning (see section on Offshore Facilities Decommissioning, below). As discussed in section 5.2.8.2, potential impacts to marine mammals

from these activities are expected to be restricted to

brief avoidance responses within about 100 m (330 ft)

of the platform.

Vessel Traffic. Section 5.2.8.2 discusses the potential cumulative impacts to marine mammals from

crew and supply boat operations in the Pacific OCS

Region. Current levels of support vessel traffic for

offshore platforms in both Federal and State waters

are presented in table 4.0.1-6. It is assumed that support vessel traffic will continue at levels at or below

those presented in table 4.0.1-6 during the period 2002-

2030. As discussed in section 5.2.8.2, these levels of

support vessel traffic are expected to result in temporary (less than 1-hour), localized disturbances to some

marine mammals in the project area, primarily baleen whales. Given that at least one collision between

a support vessel and a marine mammal has been recorded during the past 30 years of activities in the
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

Pacific OCS Region, it is possible that one or two such

events may occur during the next two decades.

Aircraft. Section 5.2.8.2 discusses the potential

cumulative impacts to marine mammals from helicopter operations in the Pacific OCS Region. Current

levels of support helicopter traffic for offshore platforms in both Federal and State waters are presented

in table 4.0.1-6. It is assumed that helicopter traffic

will continue at levels at or below those presented in

table 4.0.1-6 during the period 2002-2030. As discussed in section 5.2.8.2, these levels of helicopter traffic in the project area are expected to result in temporary (less than 1-hour), localized disturbances to some

marine mammals.

Offshore Facility Decommissioning. Section

5.2.8.2 discusses the potential cumulative impacts to

marine mammals from offshore facility decommissioning activities, including the removal of wells, platforms, and associated pipelines. Table 4.0.1-6 presents

estimated removal dates for existing oil and gas structures offshore southern California. It is expected that

no OCS platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel or

Santa Maria Basin will be removed before 2012, and a

few may be in place as late as 2030 (or 2035, in the

case of Platform Irene if the Tranquillon Ridge development occurs).

As discussed in section 5.2.8.1.2 (Mitigation

MM1), implementation of mitigation similar to that

employed for platform removal in the Gulf of Mexico

would make it unlikely that any marine mammal injury or mortality would occur as a result of the use of

explosives in decommissioning operations. Likely impacts to marine mammals would be limited to minor

and temporary (less than 1 hour in duration) disturbance. In addition to these effects, decommissioning

activities would result in noise and disturbance to

marine mammals during the removal of platform

structures and pipelines. The principal potential impacts would be similar to those expected to occur as

the result of construction activities, i.e., short-term

avoidance reactions at distances of 2 km (1 nm) or

less from the operations.

Effluent Discharges. Section 4.0 discusses the

treatment and discharge of platform effluents in the

Pacific OCS Region. Table 4.0.1-8 presents the volumes of produced water discharged by each of the OCS

platforms between 1988 and 1999. During that period, annual totals ranged from about 14 to 34 million

bbl. For purposes of analysis, MMS assumes that a

platform may discharge up to 8 million bbl of produced

water per year. The exception is Platform Harmony

in the western Santa Barbara Channel, which discharges from all three platforms in the Santa Ynez

Unit after processing at the onshore Las Flores Canyon plant. Discharge volumes from offshore facilities

during the period 2002-2030 are expected to be at or

below the levels identified in table 4.0.1-8.

Section 5.2.8.1 discusses the potential impacts

of effluent discharges from the drilling of the proposed

delineation wells on marine mammals. As reported,

the EPA biological assessment for the proposed

reissuance of its general NPDES permit for offshore

OCS facilities in southern California waters concludes

that direct toxicity to marine mammals, or their food

base, should be minimal (SAIC, 2000a, b). All such

discharges are required to meet NPDES water quality criteria, which were established to protect biological resources outside the mixing zone. Therefore,

given that effluent discharge volumes are expected to

remain at or below current levels, any contact with

OCS discharges likely would continue to be extremely

limited. No measurable effects to marine mammals

in the project area are expected.

Oil Spills. Section 5.1.3 discusses the cumulative oil spill risk for the project area. Tables 5.1.3.1-2

and 5.1.3.1-3 present the estimated mean number of

spills of various sizes and the probability of their occurrence as a result of the described activities. The

probability of one or more spills 200 bbl or less in size

occurring from existing and proposed offshore oil and

gas activities during the period 2002-2030 is 99 percent (table 5.1.3.1-2). The probability that one or more

spills in the 2,000-bbl range will occur from these activities is 59.1 percent (table 5.1.3.1-3). The risk of a

major tanker spill (22,800-bbl) during this period is

estimated to be 99 percent (table 5.1.3.1-3).

Impacts to marine mammals from any oil spills

occurring during this period would be similar to those

described in section 5.2.8.2 for the 200- and 2,000-bbl

spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil and

gas activities and for the assumed 22,800-bbl tanker

spill.

Military Activities. It is assumed that military

activities in the project area will continue at or near

the levels described in section 5.2.8.2 during the period 2002-2030. Thus, the impacts to marine mammals associated with these activities would also be

expected to continue. These include periodic disturbance and possible temporary hearing effects for pinnipeds hauled out along the Vandenberg AFB shoreline and on the Channel Islands (particularly San

Nicolas Island). Operation of the U.S. Navy’s

SURTASS LFA sonar system in project area waters

potentially could have noise-related impacts on marine mammals.

Commercial Fisheries. As discussed in section

5.2.8.2, incidental take in commercial fishing operations currently is a major source of anthropogenic

impacts to marine mammals off California. Whether

this level of take will continue is difficult to predict.

However, it is likely that additional efforts to reduce

take through mitigation, closures, and other legislative actions will occur, and that the incidental take of

marine mammals will decline in the coming decades.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

Other Anthropogenic Sources of Impacts. Section 5.2.8.2 discusses potential cumulative impacts to

marine mammals from other, human-related activities. The incidence of marine mammal mortality, especially of larger whales, due to ship strikes will probably increase as overall vessel traffic off California

increases. However, ship-strike mortality along the

Pacific coast is not currently considered to be a significant problem at the population level and is not

likely to be in the foreseeable future.

It is assumed that whale watching will remain

an important local industry in California waters during the period 2002-2030 and that activities will continue at or above current levels. Thus, the potential

for impacts to cetaceans described in section 5.2.8.2

will also continue. However, recent recommendations

for improving whale-watching regulations (Rugh et

al., 1999) may help alleviate these problems.

As discussed in section 5.2.8.2, the effects of pollutants on marine mammals are not well understood,

but there is evidence that they may affect reproduction or make individuals more susceptible to other

mortality factors, such as disease. Although the levels of certain pollutants, such as DDT, are expected to

drop, the overall contamination of the marine environment from industrial, agricultural, and municipal

sources is likely to increase during the coming decades.

The significance of these pollutant levels to marine

mammal populations in the project area is unknown,

but concern over the potential effects is growing.

Non-anthropogenic Sources of Impacts. Section

5.2.8.2 discusses potential cumulative impacts to marine mammals in the project area from a number of

non-anthropogenic sources, including disease, marine

toxins, and climatic events such as El Niño. Each of

these phenomena may periodically have significant

impacts on marine mammal populations, at least on

the local level. However, the likelihood of their occurrence (and the levels of subsequent impacts on marine mammals) during the period 2002-2030 cannot

be predicted.

Incremental Impacts of Development of the

36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Development

of the 36 undeveloped leases would involve a number

of oil and gas activities in addition to those described

earlier in this section. As described in section 6.1.3, it

is assumed that 4-5 platforms and associated pipelines

and cables would be built: 2-3 in the northern Santa

Maria Basin leases, 1 in the Bonito Unit, and 1 in the

Gato Canyon Unit. The major portion of the offshore

construction is expected during the period 2007-2009,

beginning with the Gato Canyon Unit, then shifting

to the leases located in the Santa Maria Basin. Each

platform installation is estimated to take approximately 3-6 months, depending on water depth; pipeline and cable installation are estimated to take about

3 months and 4 months, respectively.

Platform and pipeline installation would involve

completion of site investigation programs. These programs would include shallow hazards surveys to obtain data needed to analyze seafloor and subsurface

geologic and manmade hazards at the platform sites

and along the pipeline routes. A single, small airgun

is usually employed as the acoustic source for part of

a shallow hazards survey. The potential impacts of

seismic survey sound on marine mammals are discussed in section 5.2.8.2.

Impacts on marine mammals in the project area

from these activities are expected to be limited to temporary, localized disturbance, as discussed in section

5.2.8.2. If the Gato Canyon construction occurs during winter gray whale migration, as currently projected, some mitigation would probably be required

to minimize disturbance and avoid disrupting the species’ migration through the project area.

The other routine activities associated with development of the 36 undeveloped leases, including

drilling, production, and vessel and helicopter support

traffic, are expected to result in temporary (less than

1-hour), localized disturbances to marine mammals,

as discussed in section 5.2.8.2, throughout the period

2002-2030. Once production begins, support traffic is

expected to remain at levels typical for ongoing offshore oil and gas activities in the Santa Maria Basin

(table 4.0.1-6).

Decommissioning of the 4-5 platforms assumed

to be built for development of the 36 undeveloped

leases would be expected to result in noise and disturbance to marine mammals during the removal of platform structures and pipelines. The principal potential impacts would be similar to those expected to occur as the result of construction activities, i.e., shortterm avoidance reactions at distances of 2 km (1 nm)

or less from the operations. As discussed in section

5.2.8.1.2 (Mitigation MM1), implementation of mitigation similar to that employed for platform removal

in the Gulf of Mexico would make it unlikely that any

marine mammal injury or mortality would occur as a

result of the use of explosives in decommissioning

operations.

Volumes of platform effluents discharged in the

course of developing the 36 undeveloped leases are

expected to be equivalent to those estimated for existing OCS platforms (section 4.0, table 4.0.1-8). As discussed in previous sections, all platform effluents will

be discharged under NPDES permit and will be required to meet NPDES water quality criteria. No

measurable effects to marine mammals in the project

area are expected from these discharge volumes.

If all 36 leases are developed, under the most

likely development scenario the probability of one or

more spills 200 bbl or less in size occurring is 98.8

percent (section 5.1.3, table 5.1.3.1-2). The probability that one or more spills in the 2,000-bbl range will
6-49

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

occur from these activities under the most likely development scenario is 53.9 percent (table 5.1.3.1-3).

Impacts to marine mammals from any oil spills

occurring as a result of the development of the 36

undeveloped leases would be similar to those described

above for the 200- and 2,000-bbl spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil and gas activities and for

the assumed 22,800-bbl tanker spill.

Summary and Conclusions (2002-2030):

Given current trends, it is likely that the populations

of most marine mammal species will continue to grow.

However, the future status of individual populations

is difficult to predict. Impacts to marine mammals

from incidental take in commercial fishing operations

are likely to decrease. Impacts from other anthropogenic sources, such as ship strikes, marine pollutants,

and noise from shipping and military activities, may

increase as the human population and related activities continue to grow in the region.

Some routine offshore oil and gas activities, including construction and drilling, would likely be

heaviest during the years 2007-2012; much of this

activity would be related to the development of the 36

undeveloped leases. Construction activities would

occur in the Santa Maria Basin and, to a lesser extent, the western Santa Barbara Channel. Decommissioning of existing offshore oil and gas facilities

will begin in the eastern Channel about 2012 and shift

westward over a period of years. Thus, there will be

periods of noise and disturbance-producing activities

occurring in different parts of the project area at various times. Throughout these periods, routine activities such as production and vessel and helicopter support traffic will continue.

Overall, the impacts to marine mammals in the

project area from routine offshore oil and gas activities, primarily noise and disturbance, will increase

over present levels. However, the areas covered by

these activities will be small relative to the available

marine mammal habitat, and the periods of disturbance will be localized. Unless several such projects

were to overlap in time and space near essential habitat for a particular population (such as the gray whale

migration pathway), cumulative impacts to marine

mammals would be unlikely. Cumulative impacts to

marine mammals from all the routine oil and gas activities assumed to take place between 2002 and 2030,

including those associated with the development of

the 36 undeveloped leases, are expected to be low.

Impacts to marine mammals from the oil spills

assumed to occur in the project area during the period 2002-2030 could range from negligible to high,

depending on spill size, location, season, and a number of other factors. Most at risk are pinniped pups.

Seasonally, the most sensitive areas are rookeries on

the northern Channel Islands (particularly San Miguel

Island) and along the mainland coast north of Point

Conception.

Without development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, the probabilities that one or more oil spills will

occur during the period 2002-2030 from existing OCS

oil and gas activities are 73.9 percent for a spill of 200

bbl or less and 59.1 percent for a spill of 2,000 bbl.

The probability of a 22,800-bbl tanker spill occurring

during this period is 90.5 percent. Under the most

likely scenario for development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, these probabilities are 98.8 percent and 53.9

percent, respectively. Thus, the potential for an oil

spill occurring from development of the 36 undeveloped leases represents a measurable incremental increase to the overall cumulative oil spill risk for marine mammals.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

6.2.9 CUMULATIVE THREATENED AND

ENDANGERED SPECIES IMPACTS

(2002-2030)

This section discusses the cumulative impacts

to threatened and endangered species both without

and with the development of the 36 leases in the period 2002-2030. Section 5.2.9 discusses the potential

impacts associated with routine past, present, and

foreseeable offshore oil and gas activities, including

the proposed activities, that may occur during 2002-

2006, the expected duration of the proposed delineation activities. The significance criteria for the following analysis remain the same as those presented

in section 5.2.9.

6.2.9.1 CUMULATIVE THREATENED AND

ENDANGERED MARINE MAMMALS

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

This section discusses the cumulative impacts

to threatened and endangered marine mammals in the

period 2002-2030. Section 5.2.9.2 discusses the major

impact agents associated with routine past, present,

and foreseeable offshore oil and gas activities, including the proposed activities, that may produce impacts

during 2002-2006, the expected duration of the proposed delineation activities. These include noise and

disturbance, drilling discharges, and the potential use

of explosives in the decommissioning of offshore facilities. Other, non-OCS sources of impacts to threatened and endangered marine mammals, both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic, are also discussed.

Cumulative Impacts without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): This

section examines the cumulative impacts to threatened and endangered marine mammals without the

development of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to

2030. The projects discussed in this section include

past, present, and foreseeable actions that may produce impacts during 2002-2030, the period during

which development of the 36 undeveloped leases would

likely occur (section 6.1). Most of the major impact

agents are those discussed in section 5.2.9.2 (and

treated briefly below).

Offshore Oil and Gas Activities. Section 5.2.8.2

describes the routine offshore oil and gas activities

that may result in cumulative impacts to marine mammals, including threatened and endangered species.

These include geophysical surveys, construction, drilling and production activities with associated support

activities, and the abandonment, or decommissioning,

of wells and offshore facilities. As discussed in section 5.2.8.1, the major impact agents expected from

these proposed activities are noise and disturbance

and drilling discharges. The potential use of explosives in the abandonment of wells and offshore platforms also raises the possibility of lethal impacts to

marine mammals.

Geophysical Surveys. As discussed in section

6.2.8, no 2-D or 3-D seismic surveys have been proposed for the Pacific OCS or State waters in the near

future, and none are currently foreseen for the period

2002-2030.

Construction. As discussed in section 6.2.8, it is

assumed no new production platforms or pipelines

would be installed during the period 2002-2030 without development of the 36 undeveloped leases.

Development and Production. As discussed in

section 6.2.8, potential impacts to threatened and endangered marine mammals from offshore development

and production activities are expected to be restricted

to brief avoidance responses within about 100 m (330

ft) of the platform.

Vessel Traffic. As discussed in section 6.2.8, the

levels of support vessel traffic assumed to occur in

the project area over the period 2002-2030 are expected

to result in temporary (less than 1-hour), localized

disturbances to some threatened and endangered

marine mammals in the project area, primarily baleen whales. Given that at least one collision between

a support vessel and a marine mammal has been recorded during the past 30 years of activities in the

Pacific OCS Region, it is possible that one or two such

events may occur during the next two decades.

Aircraft. As discussed in section 6.2.8, the levels of helicopter traffic assumed to occur in the project

area over the period 2002-2030 are expected to result

in temporary (less than 1-hour), localized disturbances

to some threatened and endangered marine mammals.

Offshore Facility Decommissioning. Section

5.2.8.2 discusses the potential cumulative impacts to

marine mammals from offshore facility decommissioning activities, including the removal of wells, platforms, and associated pipelines. It is expected that no

OCS platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel or Santa

Maria Basin will be removed before 2012, and a few

may be in place as late as 2030 (or 2035, in the case of

Platform Irene if the Tranquillon Ridge development

occurs).

As discussed in section 5.2.8.1.2, implementation of mitigation similar to that employed for platform removal in the Gulf of Mexico would make it

unlikely that any marine mammal injury or mortality

would occur as a result of the use of explosives in decommissioning operations. Likely impacts to threatened and endangered marine mammals would be limited to minor and temporary (less than 1 hour in duration) disturbance. In addition to these effects, decommissioning activities would result in noise and

disturbance to threatened and endangered marine

mammals during the removal of platform structures

and pipelines. The principal potential impacts would

be similar to those expected to occur as the result of
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

construction activities, i.e., short-term avoidance reactions at distances of 2 km (1 nm) or less from the

operations.

Effluent Discharges. Section 4.0 describes the

treatment and discharge of platform effluents in the

Pacific OCS Region. Section 5.2.8.1 discusses the potential impacts of effluent discharges from the drilling of the proposed delineation wells on marine mammals. As reported, the EPA biological assessment for

the proposed reissuance of its general NPDES permit

for offshore OCS facilities in southern California waters concludes that direct toxicity to listed marine

mammals, or their food base, should be minimal (SAIC,

2000a, b). All such discharges are required to meet

NPDES water quality criteria, which were established

to protect biological resources outside the mixing zone.

Therefore, given that effluent discharge volumes are

expected to remain at or below current levels, any

contact with OCS discharges likely would continue to

be extremely limited. No measurable effects to threatened and endangered marine mammals in the project

area are expected.

Oil Spills. Section 5.1.3 discusses the cumulative oil spill risk for the project area. Tables 5.1.3.1-2

and 5.1.3.1-3 present the estimated mean number of

spills of various sizes and the probability of their occurrence as a result of the described activities. The

probability of one or more spills 200 bbl or less in size

occurring from existing and proposed offshore oil and

gas activities during the period 2002-2030 is 99 percent (table 5.1.3.1-2). The probability that one or more

spills in the 2,000-bbl range will occur from these activities is 59.1 percent (table 5.1.3.1-3). The risk of a

major tanker spill (22,800-bbl) during this period is

estimated to be 99 percent (table 5.1.3.1-3).

Impacts to threatened and endangered cetaceans

and pinnipeds from any oil spills occurring during this

period would be similar to those described in section

5.2.9.2 for the 200- and 2,000-bbl spills assumed to

occur as a result of offshore oil and gas activities and

for the assumed 22,800-bbl tanker spill.

As discussed in section 5.2.9.2, R.G. Ford Consulting conducted an analysis of the risk of oil spills

to the southern sea otter from ongoing and projected

production from existing federal OCS facilities during the period 2006-2030 (appendix 5.5). The results,

presented as worst-case percentiles, are shown in appendix table 5.5-3.

For ongoing and projected production from existing federal OCS facilities during the period 2006-

2030, the model predicts that there is a 1 in 100 chance

that 26-27 otters would be contacted. Likewise, for

this period the model predicts that there is only a 1 in

1,000 chance that 77 otters would be contacted by an

oil spill resulting from existing federal OCS activities,

and an extremely slight (1 in 10,000) chance that as

many as 110 otters would be contacted. Twenty-seven

(27) otters represent about 1 percent of the current

estimated southern sea otter population (2,317; section 4.6.7); 77 otters represent about 3 percent. Thus,

the model analysis indicates that there is a relatively

low probability of sea otter contacts occurring as a

result of spill associated with existing federal OCS

facilities during this period.

The oil spill risk analysis for the southern sea

otter conducted by R.G. Ford Consulting indicates that

non-OCS tanker oil spills during the period 2006-2030

would have a 1 in 100 chance of contacting 345 sea

otters, a 1 in 1,000 chance of contacting 1,341 sea otters, and a 1 in 10,000 chance of contacting as many

as 2,002 otters (appendix 5.5). The first two number

represent about 15 and 58 percent, respectively, of the

current estimated southern sea otter population

(2,317; section 4.6.7). Although an unlikely occurrence, this would be a high impact as defined by the

impact level criteria presented in section 5.2.9.

In summary, model runs for oil spills associated

with ongoing and projected production from existing

federal OCS facilities for the period 2006-2030 indicate that there is a 1-percent chance of contact to 26-

27 sea otters within 10 days. If all contacts resulted

in mortality (a conservative assumption—see section

5.2.9.2), the impacts to the southern sea otter would

be considered medium as defined by the impact level

criteria presented in section 5.2.9. As discussed above,

non-OCS tanker spills represent by far the greatest

risk to sea otters.

Military Activities. It is assumed that military

activities in the project area will continue at or near

the levels described in section 5.2.8.2 during the period 2002-2030. Thus, the impacts to marine mammals associated with these activities would also be

expected to continue. These include periodic disturbance and possible temporary hearing effects for pinnipeds hauled out along the Vandenberg AFB shoreline and on the Channel Islands (particularly San

Nicolas Island). Operation of the U.S. Navy’s

SURTASS LFA sonar system in project area waters

potentially could have noise-related impacts on marine mammals.

Commercial Fisheries. As discussed in section

5.2.9.2, incidental take in commercial fishing operations currently is not a major source of mortality for

threatened and endangered cetaceans and pinnipeds

off California. Southern sea otter mortality in

Monterey Bay gillnet fisheries has become a concern

in recent years (Cameron and Forney, 2000; Forney

et al., 2001). However, recent fishery closures in this

area are likely to reduce this take significantly if made

permanent.

Other Anthropogenic Sources of Impacts. Section 5.2.8.2 discusses potential cumulative impacts to

marine mammals from other, human-related activities. The incidence of marine mammal mortality, es-
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

pecially of larger whales, due to ship strikes will probably increase as overall vessel traffic off California

increases. However, ship-strike mortality along the

Pacific coast is not currently considered to be a significant problem for endangered cetaceans and is not

likely to be in the foreseeable future.

It is assumed that whale watching will remain

an important local industry in California waters during the period 2002-2030 and that activities will continue at or above current levels. Thus, the potential

for impacts to cetaceans, including endangered species, described in section 5.2.8.2 will also continue.

However, recent recommendations for improving

whale-watching regulations (Rugh et al., 1999) may

help alleviate these problems.

As discussed in section 5.2.9.2, the effects of pollutants on threatened and endangered marine mammals are not well understood, but there is evidence

that they may affect reproduction or make individuals more susceptible to other mortality factors, such

as disease. Although the levels of certain pollutants,

such as DDT, are expected to drop, the overall contamination of the marine environment from industrial, agricultural, and municipal sources is likely to

increase during the coming decades. The significance

of these pollutant levels to threatened and endangered

marine mammal populations in the project area is

unknown, but concern over the potential effects, particularly to the southern sea otter, is growing.

Non-anthropogenic Sources of Impacts. Section

5.2.9.2 discusses potential cumulative impacts to

threatened and endangered marine mammals in the

project area from a number of non-anthropogenic

sources, including disease and marine toxins. Each

of these phenomena may periodically have significant

impacts on marine mammal populations, at least at

the local level. However, the likelihood of their occurrence (and the levels of subsequent impacts on marine mammals) during the period 2002-2030 cannot

be predicted. The relatively high rate of infectious

disease in the southern sea otter population is of particular concern.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Development of the 36 undeveloped leases would involve a

number of oil and gas activities in addition to those

described earlier in this section. As described in section 6.1, it is assumed that 4-5 platforms and associated pipelines and cables would be built: 2-3 in the

northern Santa Maria Basin leases, 1 in the Bonito

Unit, and 1 in the Gato Canyon Unit. The major portion of the offshore construction is expected to occur

during the period 2007-2009, beginning with the Gato

Canyon Unit, then shifting to the leases in the Santa

Maria Basin. Each platform installation is estimated

to take approximately 3-6 months, depending on water depth; pipeline and cable installation are estimated

to take about 3 months and 4 months, respectively.

Platform and pipeline installation would involve

completion of site investigation programs. These programs would include shallow hazards surveys to obtain data needed to analyze seafloor and subsurface

geologic and manmade hazards at the platform sites

and along the pipeline routes. A single, small airgun

is usually employed as the acoustic source for part of

a shallow hazards survey. The potential impacts of

seismic survey sound on marine mammals are discussed in section 5.2.8.2.

Impacts on marine mammals, including threatened and endangered species, in the project area from

these activities are expected to be limited to temporary, localized disturbance, as discussed in section

5.2.8.2. The other routine activities associated with

development of the 36 undeveloped leases, including

drilling, production, and vessel and helicopter support

traffic, are expected to result in temporary (less than

1-hour), localized disturbances to threatened and endangered marine mammals, as discussed in section

5.2.8.2, throughout the period 2002-2030. Once production begins, support traffic is expected to remain

at levels typical for ongoing offshore oil and gas activities in the Santa Maria Basin (table 4.0.1-6).

Decommissioning of the 4-5 platforms assumed

to be built for development of the 36 undeveloped

leases would be expected to result in noise and disturbance to threatened and endangered marine mammals

during the removal of platform structures and pipelines. The principal potential impacts would be similar to those expected to occur as the result of construction activities, i.e., short-term avoidance reactions at distances of 2 km (1 nm) or less from the operations. As discussed in section 5.2.8.1.2 (Mitigation MM1), implementation of mitigation similar to

that employed for platform removal in the Gulf of

Mexico would make it unlikely that any marine mammal injury or mortality would occur as a result of the

use of explosives in decommissioning operations.

Volumes of platform effluents discharged in the

course of developing the 36 undeveloped leases are

expected to be equivalent to those estimated for existing OCS platforms (section 4.0, table 4.0.1-8). As

discussed in previous sections, all platform effluents

will be discharged under NPDES permit and will be

required to meet NPDES water quality criteria. No

measurable effects to threatened and endangered

marine mammals in the project area are expected from

these discharge volumes.

If all 36 leases are developed, under the most

likely development scenario the probability of one or

more spills 200 bbl or less in size occurring is 98.8

percent (section 5.1.3, table 5.1.3.1-2). The probability that one or more spills in the 2,000-bbl range will

occur from these activities under the most likely development scenario is 53.9 percent (table 5.1.3.1-3).
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

Impacts to threatened and endangered marine

mammals from any oil spills occurring as a result of

the development of the 36 undeveloped leases would

be similar to those described above for the 200- and

2,000-bbl spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil and gas activities and for the assumed 22,800-

bbl tanker spill.

As discussed in section 5.2.9.2, R.G. Ford Consulting also conducted an analysis of the risk of oil

spills to the southern sea otter from hypothetical development of the 36 undeveloped leases during the

period 2006-2030 (appendix 5.5). The results, presented as worst-case percentiles, are shown in appendix table 5.5-3.

For the period 2006-2030, the model predicts that

there is a 1 in 100 chance that 64-65 otters would be

contacted by an oil spill resulting from hypothetical

development of the 36 undeveloped leases. Likewise,

for this period the model predicts that there is only a

1 in 1,000 chance that 199 otters would be contacted,

and an extremely slight (1 in 10,000) chance that as

many as 383 otters would be contacted. Sixty-five (65)

otters represent about 3 percent of the current estimated southern sea otter population (2,317; section

4.6.7); 199 otters represent nearly 9 percent. Thus,

the model analysis indicates that there is a relatively

low probability of sea otter contacts occurring as a

result of spill associated with existing federal OCS

facilities during this period.

In summary, model runs for oil spills associated

with hypothetical development of the 36 undeveloped

leases during the period 2006-2030 indicate that there

is a 1-percent chance of contact to 64-65 sea otters

within 10 days. If all contacts resulted in mortality (a

conservative assumption—see section 5.2.9.2), the

impacts to the southern sea otter would be considered moderate as defined by the impact level criteria

presented in section 5.2.9.

Summary and Conclusions (2002-2030):

While the eastern North Pacific stocks of some endangered whale species, including blue, fin, and humpback whales, appear to be increasing, it is impossible

to predict what progress these populations may make

toward recovery over the next quarter of a century.

Given current trends, the Guadalupe fur seal population is also likely to continue to grow. The future status of other threatened and endangered marine mammals in the region is even less certain. With their

tiny population, northern right whales are the North

Pacific species most at risk of extinction. Southern

sea otters have undergone recent fluctuations in numbers and have suffered impacts from incidental take

in commercial fisheries. Impacts from other anthropogenic sources, such as ship strikes and marine pollutants, may increase as the human population and

related activities continue to grow in the region.

Some routine offshore oil and gas activities, including construction and drilling, would likely be

heaviest during the years 2007-2012; much of this

activity would be related to the development of the 36

undeveloped leases. Construction activities would

occur in the Santa Maria Basin and, to a lesser extent, the western Santa Barbara Channel. Decommissioning of existing offshore oil and gas facilities

will begin in the eastern Channel about 2012 and shift

westward over a period of years. Thus, there will be

periods of noise and disturbance-producing activities

occurring in different parts of the project area at various times. Throughout these periods, routine activities such as production and vessel and helicopter support traffic will continue.

Overall, the impacts to threatened and endangered marine mammals in the project area from routine offshore oil and gas activities, primarily noise and

disturbance, will increase over present levels. However, the areas covered by these activities will be small

relative to the available marine mammal habitat, and

the periods of disturbance will be localized. Cumulative impacts to threatened and endangered marine

mammals from all the routine oil and gas activities

assumed to take place between 2002 and 2030, including those associated with the development of the 36

undeveloped leases, are expected to be low.

Without development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, the probabilities that one or more oil spills will

occur during the period 2002-2030 from existing OCS

oil and gas activities are 73.9 percent for a spill of 200

bbl or less and 59.1 percent for a spill of 2,000 bbl.

Under the most likely scenario for development of the

36 undeveloped leases, these probabilities are 98.8

percent and 53.9 percent, respectively. The probability of a 22,800-bbl tanker spill occurring during this

period is 90.5 percent. Thus, the potential for an oil

spill occurring from development of the 36 undeveloped leases represents a measurable incremental increase to the overall cumulative oil spill risk for threatened and endangered marine mammals. Expected

impacts to threatened and endangered cetaceans and

pinnipeds remain negligible to low depending on the

species. Oil spills would be expected to result in low

to moderate impacts to the southern sea otter during

this period. Non-OCS tankers remain by far the greatest source of oil spill risk to sea otters.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

6.2.9.2 CUMULATIVE THREATENED AND

ENDANGERED BIRD IMPACTS (2002-

2030)

For the 2002-2030 time period, this analysis considers the cumulative impacts to threatened and endangered birds from: 1) existing and future Federal

and State offshore oil activity, 2) crude oil imports by

tanker, 3) other anthropogenic (military activities,

recreation, commercial fishing) and non-anthropogenic (e.g., El Ni–o events) impact sources, and 4) proposed and potential development of 36 currently undeveloped OCS leases. Refer to section 5.2.9.3 for a

discussion of effects from the Proposed Action for the

time period 2002 to 2006.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 undeveloped leases (2002-2030): Cumulative impacts related to offshore oil and gas activities

that may have measurable, long-term (e.g., months)

effects on threatened and endangered birds are oil

spills, disturbance from helicopter flights, and platform decommissioning. These impacts have occurred

(in the case of past and present operations and past

oil spills) or may occur (in the case of proposed projects

and potential oil spills) from existing Federal and State

projects and proposed State projects (e.g., Tranquillon

Ridge) whether or not the 36 undeveloped leases are

developed. Pipeline construction could also have an

impact if it were to involve nesting or wintering areas. However, no new pipeline landfalls are planned

for existing Federal and State projects or for proposed

state projects (e.g., Tranquillon Ridge). Other activities associated with oil and gas development, including exploration activities, platform installation and

operation, discharges, and vessel traffic, have, at most,

very short-term (e.g., a few hours or days), biologically unimportant (e.g., movement out of the path of

an approaching vessel) effects on threatened and endangered birds and do not contribute to cumulative

impacts.

Accidental Oil Spills. Historically, birds in the

project area have been affected by OCS-related oil

spills (see section 4.6.7). Based on the discussion of

oil spill risks in section 5.1.3, the most likely scenario

for existing Federal and State offshore oil production

and projects proposed by the State is that one or more

oil spills in the 50-1,000-bbl range would occur from

offshore oil and gas activities over the period 2002-

2030, and that such a spill would most likely be 200

bbl or less in volume. The maximum reasonably foreseeable oil spill volume from future offshore oil and

gas activities is 2,000 bbl, assumed for purposes of

analysis to be a pipeline spill.

Spilled oil may affect birds in several ways: 1)

direct contact with floating or beached oil; 2) toxic

reactions; 3) damage to bird habitat; and 4) damage

to food organisms. Oil-related mortality is highly dependent on the life histories of the bird species involved. Birds that spend much of their time feeding

or resting on the surface of the water are more vulnerable to oil spills (King and Sanger, 1979). See section 5.2.7.2.2, for a discussion of the potential effects

of oil spills and cleanup efforts on birds.

The level of impact on birds from an oil spill depends on a variety of factors, including the type, rate,

and volume of oil spilled and the weather and oceanographic conditions at the time of the spill. These parameters would determine the quantity of oil that is

dispersed into the water column; the degree of weathering, evaporation, and dispersion of the oil before it

contacts a shoreline; the actual amount, concentration, and composition of the oil at the time of shoreline or habitat contact; and a measure of the toxicity

of the oil. Vulnerability to oil spills also varies from

species to species based on abundance, distribution,

seasonal occurrence, and habitat.

Although there is not a high degree of correlation between the size of a spill and the number of birds

affected, a 200-bbl spill will generally have far less

impact than one of several thousand barrels. However, a spill in the range of 200 bbl has the potential

for affecting a few of the threatened and endangered

species that occur in the project area (e.g., the 163-

bbl Torch pipeline spill off Vandenberg AFB contacted

California brown pelicans and western snowy plovers).

Because of weathering, dispersion, and cleanup efforts,

the effects of a 200-bbl spill would most likely be limited to the general vicinity of the source of the spill.

If the spill remains offshore and does not contact the

mainland or islands, the only threatened and endangered species that could probably be affected is the

California brown pelican. If contact with the shore

occurs, California least terns, western snowy plovers,

and light-footed clapper rails could also be affected. A

200-bbl spill is not expected to reach Santa Catalina

Island, and bald eagles would, therefore, not be affected. It is estimated that a 200-bbl spill could contact from about 1 km (95% probability) to 19 km (5%

probability) of coastline (see section 5.1.3). Because

of the actions of weathering, dispersion, and cleanup

efforts, a spill of this size is only likely to contact shore

in close proximity to a platform or pipeline. Brown

pelicans occur throughout the project area and are

especially widespread during the late summer and fall;

therefore, at least a few pelicans would probably be

oiled regardless of the location of the spill. The greatest threat to pelicans would be from a spill from one

of the platforms (Grace, Gilda, Gail, or Gina) or associated pipelines at the eastern end of the Santa Barbara Channel. A 200-bbl spill from this area could

contact Anacapa Island, which is the location of the

largest pelican colony along the Pacific coast (see section 4.6.7). A spill in close proximity to, or contacting, this island during the breeding season could re-
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

sult in the loss of adult birds and disrupt nesting activities; cleanup efforts could exacerbate the impact

of a spill on nesting pelicans, which are especially sensitive to disturbance.

California least tern colonies in proximity to offshore oil operations are located at Vandenberg Air

Force Base, the Santa Clara River mouth, Ormond

Beach, and Point Mugu. The number of pairs at most

of these locations is generally low (<50) except for

Point Mugu, which had 266 pairs in 1998 (Keane,

2000). If a 200-bbl spill were to occur and contact one

of these tern colonies during the breeding season, some

loss of nesting birds and disruption of nesting activities would be expected; cleanup efforts could exacerbate the impact of a spill on nesting terns, which are

especially sensitive to disturbance. Based on weathering, dispersion, cleanup efforts, and the distance

between tern colonies, probably no more than one

colony would be affected.

Light-footed clapper rails in the project area are

restricted to two coastal salt marshes, Carpinteria, and

Mugu Lagoon, both of which are close enough to existing and proposed offshore oil developments to be

contacted by a 200-bbl oil spill. The number of rails

in these areas is not great (see section 4.6.7), with no

more than 10-15 at either location. However, the number of rails in California is also very small (<500),

and even the small number of birds in the project area

are quite important. Based on weathering, dispersion, cleanup efforts and the distance between

Carpinteria and Mugu Lagoon (about 11 miles or 18

km), only one of these areas could be contacted by a

200-bbl spill. Also, to have an effect on rails, oil would

have to both contact the shore and enter one of the

marshes, the latter of which can be prevented in some

cases.

Critical nesting habitat for the western snowy

plover in the project area in proximity to existing or

proposed offshore oil developments is located at

Vandenberg Air Force Base and Devereaux Beach in

Santa Barbara County and the Santa Clara River

mouth, Ormond Beach, and Mugu Lagoon in Ventura

County. If a 200-bbl spill were to occur and contact

one of these areas during the breeding season, some

loss of nesting birds and disruption of nesting activities would be expected; cleanup efforts could exacerbate the impact of a spill on nesting plovers, which

are especially sensitive to disturbance. Based on

weathering, dispersion, cleanup efforts, and the distance between nesting beaches, probably no more than

one area would be affected.

By its very size, the impact of a 2,000-bbl spill

on threatened and endangered birds would likely be

much greater than that of a 200-bbl spill, depending

on the timing, location, and movements of each spill.

A 2,000-bbl spill would affect a much larger area than

a 200-bbl spill, and could, therefore, contact a larger

number of birds. It is estimated that a 2,000-bbl spill

could contact from about 3 km (95% probability) to 53

km (5% probability) of coastline (see section 5.1.3). A

2,000-bbl spill could originate from a greater number

of locations and still contact Anacapa Island. A 2,000-

bbl spill could also contact more than one tern colony,

rail marsh, or plover nesting beach. Some oil could

also reach Santa Catalina Island and possibly affect

the small population of bald eagles that have been

reintroduced there. The cleanup process for such a

spill would be much more complex and protracted,

with potentially greater impacts to threatened and

endangered birds.

Overall, the impacts to threatened and endangered birds of potential oil spills from existing Federal, State, and State-proposed oil and gas operations

are expected to range from low (if Anacapa Island is

not contacted and only one tern colony or plover nesting beach is affected) to moderate (if Anacapa Island

is contacted or more than one colony or nesting beach

is contacted, or a rail marsh is contacted, or a large

amount of oil reaches Santa Catalina Island).

Helicopter Traffic. Another potential source of

impacts from existing and proposed Federal and State

offshore oil operations is helicopters. The level of

helicopter traffic related to offshore oil and gas activities in the project area is described in section 5.1.

Routinely, 8-10 helicopter trips occur offshore each

day, including those contracted by MMS. Helicopter

flights related to offshore oil may originate from three

locations depending on the purpose and destination

of the flights: the Camarillo Airport in Ventura County,

and the Santa Barbara and Santa Maria Airports in

Santa Barbara County. See section 5.4.5.1.1, for a discussion of the potential effects of helicopters on birds.

Birds are probably the most sensitive to disturbance

from helicopter flights during the breeding season. No

helicopter fights cross over Anacapa Island or any of

the other Channel Islands, and nesting pelicans are,

therefore, not affected. Flights from the Camarillo

Airport cross the coast at 3-4 locations along the

Ventura County coastline (R. Howell, MMS, pers.

comm.), all of which are at least 3 km from either a

least tern colony or snowy plover nesting beach. Rails

in Ventura County are restricted to Mugu Lagoon,

which is located entirely within the Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons (NAWCWPNS) Division Point

Mugu , where non-military helicopters flights are not

allowed. Flights from the Santa Barbara Airport cross

the coast at one location (T. Marr, Petroleum Helicopters, Inc., pers. comm.), which is about 5 km from the

nearest snowy plover beach (least terns and lightfooted clapper rails do not nest in this part of Santa

Barbara Co.). See section 5.3.1.1 for a description of

helicopter flights from the Santa Maria Airport. Based

on the fact that flights over nesting areas will either
6-56

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

not occur or will be at an altitude of 1,000 ft or more,

no impacts to threatened and endangered birds from

helicopter flights resulting from existing Federal offshore oil operations are expected.

Platform Decommissioning. Section 5.2.9.3 discusses the process of delineation well abandonment

and the possibility of impacts to marine birds. Section 5.1 describes the processes involved in decommissioning offshore facilities. For purposes of analysis, it is assumed that decommissioning would encompass the complete removal of a platform and associated pipelines, with none of the leg structure left in

place to form an artificial reef. Platform removal

would only have an effect on birds if explosives are

used in the process. To date, only one OCS facility in

the Pacific Region has been decommissioned (by nonexplosive means)—the Offshore Storage and Treatment (OS&T) vessel that formerly served the Santa

Ynez Unit platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel.

In addition, six offshore platforms in State waters in

the Channel have been removed with the use of explosives—two in 1988 and four in 1996 (table 4.0.1-

6). Other OCS platforms may be removed during the

period 2002-2030. Table 4.0.1-6 presents estimated

removal dates for existing oil and gas structures offshore southern California. It is expected that no OCS

platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel or Santa

Maria Basin will be removed before 2012, and a few

may be in place as late as 2025 (or 2035, in the case of

Platform Irene if the Tranquillon Ridge development

occurs). Although no impacts to brown pelicans have

been reported to result from platform removal, under

certain circumstances as discussed in section 5.2.9.3,

it is possible that pelicans could be injured or killed as

a result of explosives used for platform removal. Although no impacts to pelicans are expected as a result

of delineation well abandonment associated with the

proposed projects (section 5.2.9.3), a few could be injured or killed with platform decommissioning because

of the greater number of explosive charges used.

Impacts from Non-Offshore Oil Sources. Based

on the discussion of oil spill risks in section 5.1.3, the

mean size for an oil spill from a tanker accident is

assumed to be 22,800 bbl. By its very size, a 22,800-

bbl spill could have far greater impacts to threatened

and endangered birds than those from offshore oil

operations discussed above depending on the location,

timing, and movement of the spills. It is estimated

that a 22,800-bbl spill could contact from about 9 km

(95% probability) to 160 km (5% probability) of coastline (see section 5.1.3). However, the possibility of

contact with the shore is ameliorated somewhat by

the fact that oil tankers voluntarily maintain a distance of 90 km (50 nm) from the mainland for much

of their route. The cleanup process for a spill of this

size would be much more difficult and protracted compared to that for the smaller spills discussed above,

especially if a significant proportion of the oil reaches

shore. Overall, the impact of a 22,800-bbl tanker spill

on threatened and endangered birds is expected to

range from low to high, depending on the timing, location, and movement of the spill.

Other factors that have historically contributed

to cumulative impacts on threatened and endangered

birds in the project area include pollution (e.g., DDT),

habitat loss (e.g., conversion of wetland to marinas),

predation (especially for least terns and light-footed

clapper rails), and other forms of disturbance (e.g.,

beach use). See section 4.6.7.2 for further details on

each species. Overall, the cumulative impacts of these

factors on threatened and endangered birds in the

project area range from low to moderate, depending

on the species.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The potential scenario for the exploration and development

of the 36 currently undeveloped leases is described in

section 5.1. Of the activities and possible accidental

events described in section 5.1, only oil spills and disturbance from helicopter flights may have measurable,

long-term (e.g., months) effects on threatened and

endangered birds. Pipeline construction could also

have an impact if it were to involve nesting or wintering areas. However, the assumed locations of pipeline landfalls that may occur as a result of development of the 36 leases do not coincide with nesting or

wintering areas for threatened and endangered birds.

Other activities associated with oil and gas development, including exploration activities, platform installation and abandonment, discharges, and vessel traffic, have, at most, very short-term (e.g., a few days),

biologically unimportant (e.g., movement out of the

path of an approaching vessel) effects on threatened

and endangered birds and do not contribute to cumulative impacts.

The oil spill risk analysis provided in section

5.1.3 indicates a greater likelihood of both a 200-bbl

and a 2,000-bbl oil spill occurring with the development of the 36 undeveloped leases. However, a greater

potential for an oil spill to occur does not necessarily

indicate a higher level of impact, and the impacts of

oil spills to threatened and endangered birds that may

occur as a result of offshore oil development, including the 36 leases, remains low to moderate as described

above for existing Federal and State projects and proposed State projects.

Helicopter traffic is expected to increase as a

result of the development of the 36 leases, especially

during construction. However, no change is expected

in either the airports used for these flights, the flight

paths to and from the various airports, and the flight

restrictions currently in place (e.g., Vandenberg AFB,

Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary). Therefore, helicopter flights associated with the most likely
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

development scenario for the 36 leases are not expected to contribute to cumulative impacts on threatened and endangered birds in the project area.

Summary and Conclusion: The cumulative

impacts to threatened and endangered birds in the

project area from all sources for the period from 2002-

2030, including any activities and accidental events

that may be associated with the development of the

36 undeveloped leases, range from moderate to high,

depending on the species involved and the timing, location and movement of the assumed 22,800-bbl

tanker spill.

6.2.9.3 CUMULATIVE THREATENED AND

ENDANGERED SEA TURTLES

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

This section discusses the cumulative impacts

to threatened and endangered sea turtles both without and with the development of the 36 leases in the

period 2002-2030. Section 5.2.9.6 discusses the major

impact agents associated with routine past, present,

and foreseeable offshore oil and gas activities, including the proposed activities, that may produce impacts

during 2002-2006, the expected duration of the proposed delineation activities. These include noise and

disturbance, drilling discharges, and the potential use

of explosives in the decommissioning of offshore facilities. Other, non-OCS sources of impacts to sea

turtles, both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic,

are also discussed.

Cumulative Impacts without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): This

section examines the cumulative impacts to threatened and endangered sea turtles without the development of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030. The

projects discussed in this section include past, present,

and foreseeable actions that may produce impacts

during 2002-2030, the period during which development of the 36 undeveloped leases would likely occur

(section 6.1).

Oil and Gas Activities. Section 5.2.9.6 describes

the routine offshore oil and gas activities that may

result in cumulative impacts to sea turtles. These

include geophysical surveys, construction, drilling and

production activities with associated support activities, and the abandonment, or decommissioning, of

wells and offshore facilities. As discussed in section

5.2.9.6, the major impact agents expected from these

proposed activities are noise and disturbance and drilling discharges. The potential use of explosives in the

abandonment of wells and offshore platforms also

raises the possibility of lethal impacts to sea turtles.

Noise and Disturbance. In general, the routine

activities associated with offshore activities in the

project area are expected to have little effect on sea

turtle populations over the 2002-2030 period. As discussed in section 5.2.9.6, implementation of mitigation similar to that employed for platform removal in

the Gulf of Mexico would make it unlikely that any

sea turtle injury or mortality would occur as a result

of the use of explosives in decommissioning operations.

In addition to these effects, decommissioning activities would result in noise and disturbance to sea turtles

during the removal of platform structures and pipelines.

Effluent Discharges. Section 4.0 describes the

treatment and discharge of platform effluents in the

Pacific OCS Region. Section 5.2.9.5 discusses the potential impacts of effluent discharges from the drilling of the proposed delineation wells on sea turtles.

Given the low densities of sea turtles in the project

area, impacts are expected to be negligible.

Oil Spills. Section 5.1.3 discusses the cumulative oil spill risk for the project area. Tables 5.1.3.1-2

and 5.1.3.1-3 present the estimated mean number of

spills of various sizes and the probability of their occurrence as a result of the described activities. The

probability of one or more spills 200 bbl or less in size

occurring from existing and proposed offshore oil and

gas activities during the period 2002-2030 is 99 percent (table 5.1.3.1-2). The probability that one or more

spills in the 2,000-bbl range will occur from these activities is 59.1 percent (table 5.1.3.1-3). The risk of a

major tanker spill (22,800-bbl) during this period is

estimated to be 99 percent (table 5.1.3.1-3).

Impacts to sea turtles from any oil spills occurring during this period would be similar to those described in section 5.2.9.6 for the 200- and 2,000-bbl

spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil and

gas activities and for the assumed 22,800-bbl tanker

spill.

Military Activities. It is assumed that military

activities in the project area will continue at or near

the levels described in section 5.2.8.2 during the period 2002-2030. Thus, the impacts to sea turtles associated with these activities would also expected to

be less than significant (U.S. Navy, 2000, 2001).

Commercial Fisheries. As discussed in section

5.2.9.6, incidental take in commercial fishing operations continues to be a serious threat to sea turtles.

Many of the fisheries involved operate outside of U.S.

jurisdiction, but efforts have begun to monitor, and

potentially reduce, the incidental take of sea turtles

in the Hawaiian longline fishery (NMFS, 1999).

Other Anthropogenic Sources of Impacts. Section 5.2.9.6 discusses potential cumulative impacts to

sea turtles from other, human-related activities. On

the species’ nesting beaches these include the direct

take of adults and eggs, coastal construction and other

beach activities, and artificial lighting. At sea, they

include the direct take of sea turtles, the entanglement or ingestion of debris, and marine pollutants.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

In embayments and other nearshore habitats, construction activities and boat collisions are sources of

potential impact, especially for green sea turtles.

These activities are likely to continue during the period 2002-2030.

Non-anthropogenic Sources of Impacts. Section

5.2.9.6 discusses potential cumulative impacts to sea

turtles in the project area from a number of non-anthropogenic sources, including disease, predation, and

natural phenomena. Each of these may periodically

have significant impacts on sea turtle populations, at

least at the local level. However, the likelihood of their

occurrence (and the levels of subsequent impacts on

sea turtles) during the period 2002-2030 cannot be

predicted.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Development of the 36 undeveloped leases would involve a

number of oil and gas activities in addition to those

discussed earlier in this section. These activities are

described in section 6.1. Impacts on sea turtles in the

project area from these activities are expected to be

limited to temporary, localized disturbance to a few

individuals, as discussed in section 5.2.9.6.

As discussed in section 5.2.8.1.2 (Mitigation

MM1), implementation of mitigation similar to that

employed for platform removal in the Gulf of Mexico

would make it unlikely that any sea turtle injury or

mortality would occur as a result of the use of explosives in decommissioning operations.

Volumes of platform effluents discharged in the

course of developing the 36 undeveloped leases are

expected to be equivalent to those estimated for existing OCS platforms (section 4.0, table 4.0.1-8). As

discussed in previous sections, all platform effluents

will be discharged under NPDES permit and will be

required to meet NPDES water quality criteria. No

measurable effects to sea turtles in the project area

are expected from these discharge volumes.

If all 36 leases are developed, under the most

likely development scenario the probability of one or

more spills 200 bbl or less in size occurring is 98.8

percent (section 5.1.3, table 5.1.3.1-2). The probability that one or more spills in the 2,000-bbl range will

occur from these activities under the most likely development scenario is 53.9 percent (table 5.1.3.1-3).

Impacts to sea turtles from any oil spills occurring as a result of the development of the 36 undeveloped leases would be similar to those described above

for the 200- and 2,000-bbl spills assumed to occur as a

result of offshore oil and gas activities and for the assumed 22,800-bbl tanker spill.

Summary and Conclusions (2002-2030): Although recovery plans have been finalized for all four

species of sea turtles found on the U.S. west coast

(NMFS and FWS, 1998a-d), the trends of these populations over the next quarter of a century are uncertain. Leatherback sea turtles are the species most

commonly sighted at sea in this area, but their Mexican nesting populations are decreasing (NMFS, 1999).

The same is true for nesting populations of green

turtles in Mexico, although their nesting populations

in the Pacific are increasing overall (NMFS, 1999).

In contrast, nesting populations of Pacific ridley sea

turtles in Mexico and Costa Rica are still quite large

and apparently increasing (NMFS, 1999). Loggerhead

sea turtles nest in the western Pacific; their population status in most areas is unknown (NMFS, 1999).

The primary threats to sea turtles along the west coast

are incidental take in commercial fisheries and, to a

lesser extent, entanglement in and ingestion of marine debris. Primarily warmwater species, such as

the green, ridley, and loggerhead sea turtles, are also

subject to boat collisions in nearshore waters and cold

stunning during El Niño episodes.

Overall, the impacts to sea turtles in the project

area from routine offshore oil and gas activities, primarily noise and disturbance, will increase over

present levels. However, the areas covered by these

activities will be small relative to the available habitat, and the periods of disturbance will be localized.

Cumulative impacts to sea turtles from all the routine oil and gas activities assumed to take place between 2002 and 2030, including those associated with

the development of the 36 undeveloped leases, are

expected to be negligible.

Accidental oil spills present an ongoing source

of potential impacts to sea turtles. The cumulative

risk of oil spills arises from multiple sources, including offshore oil and gas activities in Federal and State

waters and both Alaskan and foreign-import

tankering. The greatest oil spill risk to sea turtles in

the project area results from tankering operations.

This risk is tempered by recently implemented or proposed mitigation (such as the rerouting of tankers farther offshore along the central California coast) and,

as discussed in section 5.1.3, by modern oil spill response capabilities. As was discussed in section 5.2.9.6,

impacts to sea turtles from the oil spills assumed to

occur in the project area during the period 2002-2030

would be negligible.
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

6.2.9.4 CUMULATIVE THREATENED AND

ENDANGERED AMPHIBIANS

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

Cumulative Impacts without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Section 5.0 describes the projects considered in the cumulative analysis for the proposed delineation activities. Possible sources of cumulative impacts in the

project area include on-going and proposed oil and gas

activities in Federal and State waters, Alaskan and

foreign-import tankering. Cumulative impacts to

threatened California red-legged frogs also occur from

habitat loss due to urbanization, competition and predation with exotic or invasive species, and other anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic sources.

The projects discussed in this section include

past, present, and foreseeable actions that may produce impacts during 2002-2030, the expected duration of the proposed action. Potential cumulative impacts are discussed below.

Offshore Oil and Gas Activities. Past, present

and foreseeable oil and gas development activities in

the project area have impacts that may affect onshore

amphibians. These include onshore construction and

the laying of pipelines associated with offshore development. Accidental oil spills may also impact coastal

habitat for the California red-legged frog

Onshore Construction. Past construction

projects onshore, including pipelines have added to

the overall cumulative impacts to California red-legged

frogs of southern California. The primary effects have

been due to habitat loss and fragmentation. No onshore construction activities are planned for any existing Federal or State offshore oil and gas projects,

or for the State Tranquillon Ridge project.

Oil Spills. Section 5.0 discusses the cumulative

oil spill risk for the project area, which results from

several sources: ongoing and projected oil and gas production from existing OCS facilities in the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Maria Basin, several proposed

development projects on the Federal OCS, ongoing

production from one facility in State waters in the

Santa Barbara Channel, two likely oil and gas projects

in State waters, and the tankering of Alaskan and foreign-import oil through area waters. The most likely

oil spill scenario is that one or more oil spills in the

50-1,000-bbl range would occur from offshore oil and

gas activities over the period 2002-2030, and that such

a spill would be 200 bbl or less in volume. The probability that one or more spills of this size will occur

this period is 73.9 percent (table 5.1-1). The maximum reasonably foreseeable oil spill volume from offshore oil and gas activities is 2,000 bbl, assumed for

purposes of analysis to be a pipeline spill. The probability of a spill of this size occurring during the period 2002-2030 is 59.1 percent (table 5.1-1). Based on

data from tanker spills in U.S. waters, the mean size

for a tanker spill is assumed to be 22,800 bbl (with a

probability of occurrence of 90.5 percent for this period; table 5.1-1). As discussed in section 5.0, none of

the oil produced on the Pacific OCS is transported by

tanker. However, the transport of foreign and Alaskan oil along the U.S. west coast does present an oil

spill risk.

Oil may affect amphibians through various pathways including direct contact, ingestion of contaminated prey, and lingering sublethal impacts due to oil

becoming sequestered in sediments and persisting in

some cases for years in low energy environments (NRC

1985). The level of impacts and the persistence of the

oil in the environment will depend on the volume of

oil that reaches the habitat and the amount of mixing

and weathering the oil has undergone before reaching the habitat. An at sea oil spill would not impact

breeding or estivation habitat of red-legged frogs which

is well upstream of the coast.

Adult red-legged frogs move down to the brackish coastal lagoons formed seasonally behind sand

berms that close the mouths of rivers and streams

along the south central coast. Storms or tides may

breach these natural berms, at which point the frogs

move upstream to freshwater. There is some risk that

an oil spill might reach the coastal lagoons during a

high tide or storm when the sand berms have been

breached. Red-legged frogs cannot tolerate salinities

in excess of 9ppm and leave the coastal lagoons when

seawater breaches the sand berms (pers.com., Norman

Scott, USGS-BRD). Though no direct oil contact with

frogs is expected, the oil can become sequestered in

the sediments and persist until rains flush the sediments from the lagoon. If the sand berms form again

and conditions become favorable, some red-legged

frogs may return before the contaminated sediments

are flushed into the ocean. The level of toxicity would

be dependent on the weathering of the oil and the

volume of oil that reaches the lagoon.

Data from moored current meters and surfacedrifter trajectory observations (section 5.0) indicate

that north of Point Conception, a spill would move

northward along the mainland coast nearly 30 percent of the time. The OSRA model runs (section 5.0)

predict up to a 5% probability that if a spill were to

occur between October and March the Pt. Arguello

area would be contacted by oil within 3-days from one

of the three launch points. The coastal rivers and

streams in the Pt. Arguello area support populations

of red-legged frogs (pers. com. Norman Scott, USGSBRD). Tadpoles have been reported in Jalama and

Cañada Honda creeks and adult frogs can be found

seasonally in the coastal lagoons of the central California coast. Eggs and tadpoles are not found in the

coastal lagoons.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

If an oil spill did occur, and the sand berms of

the coastal lagoons were breached, sublethal impacts

to red-legged frogs might occur if the frogs returned

before rains flushed the sediments from the lagoons.

Oil spill response teams would be expected to boom

the mouths of creeks and rivers or enhance the existing berms in the event of a spill thus minimizing the

chance of oil reaching the lagoons. An oil spill that

contacts the mainland along the central California

coast is unlikely to result in red-legged frog mortalities or sub-lethal effects. However habitat destruction could result from clean-up efforts. Proper preparation and execution of the oil spill contingency plan

should protect these areas during an oil spill response.

In conclusion, only minor short-term impacts to

seasonal habitat of the California red-legged frog

would be expected from an oil spill.

Other Activities. Habitat loss and alteration are

the primary factors that have negatively affected the

California red-legged frog throughout its range. For

example, in the Central Valley of California, over 90

percent of historic wetlands have been diked, drained,

or filled primarily for agricultural development and

secondarily for urban development. Wetland alterations, clearing of vegetation, and water diversions

that often accompany agricultural development make

aquatic sites unsuitable for California red-legged frogs.

Urbanization with its associated roadway, stream

channelization, and large reservoir construction

projects has significantly altered or eliminated California red-legged frog habitat, with the greatest impact occurring in southern California. The majority

of extant localities are isolated and fragmented remnants of larger historical populations.

Loss of habitat and decreases in habitat quality

will occur as a result of on-site degradation of the

stream environment and/or riparian corridor, or

through modification of instream flow. Where streams

or wetlands occur in urban areas, the quality of California red-legged frog habitat is degraded by a variety

of factors. Among these factors are introduction of

exotic predators, elimination of streambank vegetation, collecting, and loss of upland habitat.

Water projects, which accompany urban and agricultural growth, have had a negative effect on California red-legged frogs and their habitat. The construction of large reservoirs, such as Lake Oroville,

Whiskeytown Reservoir, Don Pedro Reservoir, Lake

Berryessa, San Luis Reservoir, Lake Silverwood, Lake

Piru, Pyramid Lake, and Lower Otay Lake, have eliminated California red-legged frog habitat or fragmented

remaining aggregations (Jennings et al., 1993).

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2036): The potential scenario for the exploration and development

of the 36 currently undeveloped leases is described in

section 5.0. Of the activities and possible accidental

events described, only oil spills and construction of

onshore facilities may have measurable, long-term

(e.g., years) effects on threatened amphibians (California red-legged frog). Pipeline construction could

also have an impact if it were to occur in California

red-legged frog habitat. Other activities associated

with oil and gas development, including exploration

activities, platform installation and abandonment,

discharges, and vessel traffic will not have an impact

on threatened and endangered amphibians.

The oil spill risk analysis provided in section 5.0

indicates a greater likelihood of both a 200-bbl (98.8

percent) and a 2,000-bbl (53.9 percent) oil spill occurring with the development of the 36 undeveloped

leases. Although a greater potential for an oil spill to

occur does not necessarily indicate a higher level of

impacts, the potential for an oil spill occurring from

deveolpment of of the 36 undeveloped leases represents a measurable incremental increase to the overall oil spill risk for threatened and endangered amphibians.

Summary and Conclusion: While the Fish

and Wildlife Service has issued a Draft Recovery Plan

(2000) for the California red-legged frog, it is impossible to predict this species’ progress toward recovery

over the next 30 years. Given current trends, the fragmentation and degradation of California red-legged

frog habitat of the south and central coast of California will likely continue due to urbanization and other

human-related activities.

Overall, the impacts to California red-legged

frogs in the project area from routine offshore oil and

gas activities, primarily onshore construction, will

increase over present levels only if the 36 undeveloped leases are developed. However, the areas that

would be impacted by onshore activities will be small

relative to the available frog habitat, and critical areas would likely be avoided. Cumulative impacts to

California red-legged frogs from all the routine oil and

gas activities assumed to take place between 2002 and

2030, including those associated with the development

of the 36 undeveloped leases, are expected to be low.

Without development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, the probabilities that one or more oil spills will

occur during the period 2002-2030 from existing OCS

oil and gas activities are 73.9 percent for a spill of 200

bbl or less and 59.1 percent for a spill of 2,000 bbl.

Under the most likely scenario for development of the

36 undeveloped leases, these probabilities are 98.8

percent and 53.9 percent, respectively. The probability of a 22,800-bbl tanker spill occurring during this

period is 90.5 percent. Thus, the potential for an oil

spill occurring from development of the 36 undeveloped leases represents a measurable incremental increase to the overall cumulative oil spill risk for California red-legged frogs.
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

6.2.9.5 CUMULATIVE THREATENED AND

ENDANGERED FISH IMPACTS (2002-

2030)

Cumulative Impacts without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Section 5.0 describes the projects considered in the cumulative analysis for the proposed delineation activities. Possible sources of cumulative impacts in the

project area include on-going and proposed oil and gas

activities in Federal and State waters, Alaskan and

foreign-import tankering. Cumulative impacts to

threatened and endangered fish also occur from habitat loss due to urbanization, competition and predation with exotic or invasive species, and other anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic sources.

The projects discussed in this section include

past, present, and foreseeable actions that may produce impacts during 2002-2030, the expected duration of the proposed action. Potential cumulative impacts are discussed below.

Offshore Oil and Gas Activities. Routine past,

present and foreseeable oil and gas development activities in the project area are described in section 5.0.

These activities have had low impacts on threatened

and endangered fish species. No new pipeline or onshore facilities are planned for existing Federal and

State projects or the proposed Tranquillon Ridge

project. Accidental oil spills may impact coastal habitat for the southern steelhead and tidewater goby.

Oil Spills. Section 5.0 discusses the cumulative

oil spill risk for the project area, which results from

several sources: ongoing and projected oil and gas production from existing OCS facilities in the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Maria Basin, several proposed

development projects on the Federal OCS, ongoing

production from one facility in State waters in the

Santa Barbara Channel, two likely oil and gas projects

in State waters, and the tankering of Alaskan and foreign-import oil through area waters. The most likely

oil spill scenario is that one or more oil spills in the

50-1,000-bbl range would occur from offshore oil and

gas activities over the period 2002-2030, and that such

a spill would be 200 bbl or less in volume. The probability that one or more spills of this size will occur

this period is 73.9 percent (table 5.1-1). The maximum reasonably foreseeable oil spill volume from offshore oil and gas activities is 2,000 bbl, assumed for

purposes of analysis to be a pipeline spill. The probability of a spill of this size occurring during the period 2002-2030 is 59.1 percent (table 5.1-1). Based on

data from tanker spills in U.S. waters, the mean size

for a tanker spill is assumed to be 22,800 bbl (with a

probability of occurrence of 90.5 percent for this period; table 5.1-1). As discussed in section 5.0, none of

the oil produced on the Pacific OCS is transported by

tanker. However, the transport of foreign and Alaskan oil along the U.S. west coast does present an oil

spill risk.

A generic discussion of the effects of oil spills on

fish is presented in 5.2.6.2. Research shows that hydrocarbons and other constituents of petroleum spills

can, in sufficient concentrations, cause adverse impacts to fish and can range from mortality to sublethal effects that inhibit growth, longevity, and reproduction.

Tidewater Goby. Endangered tidewater gobies,

which are found in shallow coastal lagoons, stream

mouths and shallow areas of bays potentially could be

impacted by an oil spill. There is some risk that an oil

spill might reach the coastal lagoons during a high

tide or storm when the sand berms blocking the stream

mouths from the ocean have been breached. Breaches

usually occur during the winter and spring months

and tidewater gobies often move upstream out of the

lagoons during this period. Though direct oil contact

with gobies would be unlikely, the oil can become sequestered in the sediments and persist until rains flush

the sediments from the lagoon. When the gobies return, short-term sublethal effects would also be expected, since gobies burrow into and feed in the sediment and rely on macrofaunal and intertidal communities for food and shelter from predators. The level

of impacts, however, are dependent on the volume of

oil that reaches their habitat and the amount of weathering and mixing the oil has undergone before reaching the habitat.

However, tidewater gobies along the south-central California coast are quite resilient and have a great

ability to disperse and re-colonize areas from which

they were previously eliminated (FWS News Release,

June 24, 1999). Thus, oil spills associated with existing offshore oil and gas activities are expected to have

only minor impacts on tidewater gobies in the project

area.

Steelhead Trout. The critical habitat for endangered steelhead trout includes all river reaches and

estuarine areas accessible to listed steelhead in coastal

river basins from the Santa Maria Basin to Malibu

Creek. In the Point Arguello area, this would include

the Santa Ynez River, San Antonio Creek, and the

Santa Maria River, and perhaps Jalama and Cañada

Honda Creeks. South of Point Arguello this would

include the Ventura and Santa Clara Rivers, and

Malibu Creek. Only winter steelhead occur along the

south-central coast. Winter steelhead enter their

home streams from November to April to spawn. Juveniles migrate to sea usually in spring.

If an oil spill contacted shore in the project area

during the steelhead trout migration, some mortality

and short-term sublethal impacts to steelhead might

occur. Oil spill response teams would be expected to

boom the mouths of creeks and rivers or enhance the

existing berms in the event of a spill thus minimizing
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

the chance of oil reaching critical habitat. The toxicity and persistence of the oil in the environment would

be low due to the weathering and mixing of the oil at

sea and the high-energy environment of the south

central coast.

If an oil spill were to hit the mainland coast of

south or central California, it would likely contact one

or two of the above critical habitats during a period

when steelhead are entering or leaving the river. Little

mortality would be expected from such an occurrence.

However, sublethal effects causing stress may lead to

increased vulnerability to disease and perhaps reduced

reproduction to impacted individuals. Migration could

also be disrupted. Oil avoidance reactions are well

documented in salmon. Adults and juveniles can detect sublethal levels of hydrocarbons (Rice, 1973; Weber et al., 1981) and have been observed actively avoiding contaminated areas (Patten, 1977; Weber et al.,

1981). Also, in the event of a spill, oil spill response

teams would identify river and stream mouths at risk

of oil contact and would immediately boom or build

protective berms at the river and stream mouths,

which could further disrupt migration. These effects

are expected to be short-term due to the weathering

and mixing that would occur to the oil before it reached

the shore, and the high-energy environment of the

south central California coast that will further minimize the toxicity and persistence of the oil in the environment.

In conclusion, oil spills associated with existing

offshore oil and gas activities are expected to have only

minor impacts on steelhead trout if the spill contacts

critical habitat during a period when steelhead are

migrating. Due to the openness of the south central

coast and the high-energy environment of the area, a

spill will likely break into smaller slicks and some of

the oil will disperse into the water column. Thus, concentrated oiling of steelhead habitat would not be expected.

Other Activities. Steelhead from the Southern

California ESU have already been extirpated from

much of their historical range. There is a strong concern about the widespread degradation, destruction,

and blockage of freshwater habitats within the region,

and the potential results of continuing habitat destruction and water allocation problems. There is also concern about the genetic effects of widespread stocking

of rainbow trout. Total abundance of steelhead in the

South-Central Coast ESU is extremely low and declining. Risk factors for this ESU are habitat deterioration due to sedimentation and flooding related to

land management practices and potential genetic interaction with hatchery rainbow trout.

The northern population of tidewater goby is

found along coastal areas from Del Norte County south

to Los Angeles County. It lost some of its habitat over

the past 150 years to farming, development, and pollution (Pacific Region USFWS News Release June 24,

1999). Since 1994, the northern population of tidewater gobies has rebounded sharply. Early summer 1999,

the Service proposed to delist that population, while

maintaining the endangered designation for the southern population.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The potential scenario for the exploration and development

of the 36 currently undeveloped leases is described in

section 5.0. Of the activities and possible accidental

events described, only oil spills and construction of

onshore facilities may have measurable, long-term

(e.g., years) effects on threatened and endangered fish

(Tidewater goby and Southern steelhead). Pipeline

construction could also have an impact if it were to

occur across steelhead or goby habitat. Other activities associated with oil and gas development, including exploration activities, platform installation and

abandonment, discharges, and vessel traffic will not

have an impact on threatened and endangered amphibians.

The oil spill risk analysis provided in section 5.0

indicates a greater likelihood of both a 200-bbl (98.8

percent) and a 2,000-bbl (53.9 percent) oil spill occurring with the development of the 36 undeveloped

leases. Although a greater potential for an oil spill to

occur does not necessarily indicate a higher level of

impacts, the potential for an oil spill occurring from

development of the 36 undeveloped leases represents

a measurable incremental increase to the overall oil

spill risk for threatened and endangered fish.

Summary and Conclusion: The principal

threats to the recovery of southern steelhead is habitat degradation due to several sources including dams,

agricultural and forest management practices, and

urbanization. The species also faces potential genetic

interaction with hatchery rainbow. These threats will

continue through the next quarter century, although

efforts are underway to alleviate the problems.

The northern population of tidewater gobies has

lost habitat over the past 150 years due to farming

and development, but has recently rebounded sharply.

Early summer 1999, the Service proposed to delist that

population, while maintaining the endangered designation for the southern population.

Overall, the impacts to tidewater gobies and

southern steelhead in the project area from routine

offshore oil and gas activities, primarily onshore construction, will increase over present levels only if the

36 undeveloped leases are developed. However, the

areas that would be impacted by onshore activities

will be small relative to the available habitat, and critical areas would likely be avoided. Cumulative impacts

to threatened and endangered fish from all the routine oil and gas activities assumed to take place between 2002 and 2030, including those associated with
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

the development of the 36 undeveloped leases, are expected to be low.

Without development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, the probabilities that one or more oil spills will

occur during the period 2002-2030 from existing OCS

oil and gas activities are 73.9 percent for a spill of 200

bbl or less and 59.1 percent for a spill of 2,000 bbl.

Under the most likely scenario for development of the

36 undeveloped leases, these probabilities are 98.8

percent and 53.9 percent, respectively. The probability of a 22,800-bbl tanker spill occurring during this

period is 90.5 percent. Thus, the potential for an oil

spill occurring from development of the 36 undeveloped leases represents a measurable incremental increase to the overall cumulative oil spill risk for threatened and endangered fish.

6.2.9.6 CUMULATIVE THREATENED AND

ENDANGERED PLANT IMPACTS

(2002-2030)

For the 2002-2030 time period, this analysis considers the cumulative impacts to threatened and endangered plants from: 1) existing and future Federal

and State offshore oil activity, 2) crude oil imports by

tanker, 3) other anthropogenic (military activities,

recreation, commercial fishing) impact sources, and

4) proposed and potential development of 36 currently

undeveloped OCS leases. Refer to section 5.2.9.11 for

a discussion of effects from the Proposed Action for

the time period 2002 to 2006.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 undeveloped leases (2002-2030): Although no impacts to either the salt marsh bird’s beak

or California sea-blite from past and present OCSrelated oil and gas activities in the Pacific Region have

been reported, future oil spills and onshore construction activities have the potential for affecting these

plants. No onshore construction activities are planned

for any existing Federal or State offshore oil project

or the proposed State Tranquillon Ridge project; however, oil spills may occur as a result of these projects

whether or not the 36 undeveloped leases are eventually developed.

Accidental OCS Oil Spills. Based on the discussion of oil spill risks in Section 5.1.3, the most likely

scenario for existing Federal and State offshore oil

production and projects proposed by the State is that

one or more oil spills in the 50-1,000-bbl range would

occur from offshore oil and gas activities over the period 2002-2030, and that such a spill would most likely

be 200 bbl or less in volume. The maximum reasonably foreseeable oil spill volume from future offshore

oil and gas activities is 2,000 bbl, assumed for purposes of analysis to be a pipeline spill.

Plant mortality from oil spills can be caused by

smothering and toxic reactions to hydrocarbon exposure, especially if oil reaches shore before much of the

spill’s lighter fractions have evaporated or dissolved.

Generally, oiled marsh vegetation dies, but roots and

rhizomes survive when oiling is not too severe (Burns

and Teal, 1971). Research has shown that recovery

to pre-oiling conditions usually occurs within a few

growing seasons, depending on the magnitude of exposure (Holt et al., 1975; Lytle, 1975; Delaune, et al.,

1979; Alexander and Webb, 1987). The cleanup process, if not conducted with respect to Federal and State

regulations, could exacerbate the effects of an oil spill

on threatened and endangered plants.

Because of weathering, dispersion, and cleanup

efforts, the effects of a 200-bbl spill is only likely to

contact shore in close proximity to a platform or pipeline. California sea-blite is restricted to Morro Bay

and would not be affected by a 200-bbl oil spill. Populations of salt marsh bird’s beak in the general vicinity of offshore oil development occur at the Carpinteria

Marsh in Santa Barbara County, and the Ventura

County Game Preserve, Ormond Beach, and Mugu

Lagoon in Ventura County. Any of these areas could

be contacted by a 200-bbl spill, if it originated from a

nearby platform or pipeline. For impacts to actually

occur, however, oil would have to contact this plant’s

habitat. The primary habitat of this species is coastal

salt marsh, where it occurs in the upper part of the

marsh. Salt marshes can frequently be protected from

oil contact. However, if an oil spill were to contact

this species’ habitat, some plants could be lost; the

cleanup process would have to be conducted with strict

adherence to Federal and State regulations to prevent

additional losses. It is estimated that a 200-bbl spill

could contact from about 1 km (95% probability) to 19

km (5% probability) of coastline (see Section 5.1.3),

and because of weathering, dispersion, and cleanup

efforts, probably no more than one area where this

plant occurs would be affected.

By its very size, the impact of a 2,000-bbl spill

on threatened and endangered plants would likely be

much greater than that of a 200-bbl spill, depending

on the timing, location, and movements of each spill.

Although it is still unlikely that a 2,000-bbl spill could

contact Morro Bay, which is about 84 km (52 miles)

from the closest offshore oil project, such a spill could

originate from a greater number of locations and still

contact salt marsh bird’s beak habitat. A 2,000-bbl

spill could also contact more than one area where this

plant occurs. The cleanup process for such a spill

would be much more complex and protracted, with

potentially greater impacts.

Overall, the impacts to the salt marsh bird’s beak

from oil spills that may originate from existing Federal, State, and State-proposed oil and gas operations
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

range from low (if only one area is contacted) to moderate (if several areas are contacted). No impacts to

the California sea-blite are expected.

Impacts from Non-Offshore Oil Sources. Based

on the discussion of oil spill risks in Section 5.1.3, the

mean size for an oil spill from a tanker accident is

assumed to be 22,800 bbl. By its very size, the impacts of a 22,800-bbl spill on threatened and endangered plants could be far worse than those from offshore oil operations discussed above, depending on the

timing, location, and movements of each spill. It is

estimated that a 22,800-bbl spill could contact from

about 9 km (95% probability) to 160 km (5% probability) of coastline (see Section 5.1.3), and depending on

its location and movements, such a large spill could

contact the habitat of both the salt marsh bird’s beak

and the California sea-blite. The only place where

the California sea-blite currently exists is Morro Bay,

and if a large amount of oil were to enter the bay and

contact this species’ habitat, the continued existence

of this species could be at risk. However, the possibility of contact with the shore is ameliorated somewhat

by the fact that oil tankers voluntarily maintain a distance of 90 km (50 nm) from the mainland for much

of their route. If the shoreline is contacted, it might

be far more difficult to prevent oil from entering a

marsh with this size spill. The cleanup process for a

spill of this size would also be much more difficult

and protracted compared to that for the smaller spills

discussed above, especially if a significant proportion

of the oil reaches shore. Overall, the impacts to threatened and endangered plants from a 22,800-bbl, nonOCS tanker spill range from low to high, depending

on the location and movement of the spill.

The main reason for the endangered status of

both the salt marsh bird’s beak and California seablite is due to the severe alteration of their already

limited salt marsh habitat. California salt marshes

have been lost to marina and industrial development,

beach recreational facilities, housing development, and

other human-related factors. See section 4.6.7.6 for

further details on each species. Overall, the cumulative impacts to threatened and endangered plants from

habitat loss in the project area range from moderate

for the salt marsh bird’s beak to high for the California sea-blite.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The potential scenario for the exploration and development

of the 36 currently undeveloped leases is described in

Section 5.1. Of the activities and possible accidental

events described in Section 5.1, only oil spills and construction of onshore facilities may have measurable,

long-term (e.g., years) effects on threatened and endangered plants (salt marsh bird’s beak and California sea-blite). Pipeline construction could also have

an impact if it were to involve the habitat of either of

these two plant species. However, the assumed locations of pipeline landfalls that may occur as a result

of development of the 36 leases (see Section 5.1) do

not contact their habitats. Other activities associated

with oil and gas development, including exploration

activities, platform installation and abandonment,

discharges, and vessel traffic will not have an impact

on threatened and endangered plants.

The oil spill risk analysis provided in Section

5.1.3 indicates a greater likelihood of both a 200-bbl

and a 2,000-bbl oil spill occurring with the development of the 36 undeveloped leases. Although a greater

potential for an oil spill to occur does not necessarily

indicate a higher level of impact, with the development of the 36 leases, an oil spill could occur much

closer to Morro Bay than is the case for existing facilities. Therefore, the habitat of the California sea-blite

could be contacted, if an oil spill were to occur from

one of the northernmost of the 36 leases.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION:

The cumulative impacts to threatened and endangered plants in the project area from all sources

for the period from 2002-2030, including any activities and accidental events that may be associated with

the development of the 36 undeveloped leases, range

from moderate to high, depending on the species involved, the size, timing, location and movement of

potential oil spills, and continued habitat loss.

6.2.10 CUMULATIVE ESTUARINE AND

WETLAND HABITATS IMPACTS (2002-

2030)

The cumulative section introduction describes

the projects considered in the cumulative analysis.

This section examines:

· the cumulative impacts to esturarine and wetland habitats without the development of the

36 leases in the time period from 2002 to 2030;

· the additional cumulative impacts to

esturarine and wetland habitats from development of the 36 leases in the time period from

2002 to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.10 for a discussion of effects

for the time period 2002 to 2006. The significance

criteria for the following analysis are the same as the

criteria for the time period 2002 to 2006 presented in

Section 5.2.10.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Cumulative impacts to wetland resources include sedimentation and contamination due to natural storms
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

and surface runoff, agricultural practices in the watersheds increasing sediment load and pollutants,

physical alteration by commercial and residential development, contamination by offshore and onshore

sources of oil and other pollutants.

Natural Storms/surface runoff. Seasonal storm

events, and especially the extreme storm events associated with El Nino conditions, can significantly impact wetland habitat through surface runoff. Primary

impacts to the wetlands from surface runoff include

increased sedimentation, contamination by metals,

hydrocarbons and other pollutants, reduced function

due to the influx of large amounts of debris, and reduced salinity. Impacts range from low to moderate,

depending on the severity of the storm and location

in relation to population centers.

Agricultural Practices. More attention has been

paid recently to the significance of agricultural practices upstream in the watershed and the ultimate affect on estuarine and wetland resources. Many efforts

are aimed at examining water resource uses at a watershed level so that all potential sources of sedimentation and water use which affect downstream resources can be considered. Grading and farming activities substantially increase sediment load in the

watershed and reduce the function of the adjoining

wetlands. Use of pesticides, herbicides and other

chemicals on the farmland affects plants and animals

downstream in the estuary. The affects from these

practices are felt in the watersheds throughout California.

Commercial and Residential Development. The

single most important impact to wetlands in California, especially southern California, is the widespread

direct destruction and alteration of habitat through

commercial and residential development. Only a small

fraction, less than 9%, of the wetland habitat available in 1850 when California became a state, now remains; a reduction from 5% area to .5% area (Southern California Wetland Project website, 2000). Indirectly, this increased development also impacts wetlands through increased population pressure, bringing increased public use, pollution, sewage, roads and

parking lots to the already impacted habitat. One of

the reasons Point Mugu remains as a wetland habitat

is due to the restricted building possible on a military

base. The areas along the Central Coast to Point Lobos have been considerably less affected by construction activities than Southern California, though building continues to occur along the coastline in lowland

areas adversely affecting wetland resources.

Pollution Events. Sources of pollution include

cars which contribute significant amounts of hydrocarbons in surface runoff, leaks from sewage outfalls

and facilities, ongoing oil and gas development in Federal and State waters and tanker spills. Most of the

original estuarine habitat in Southern California has

already been severely altered, much of it possibly beyond repair. In general, while the closed nature of

many southern California wetlands affords them protection from introduction of pollution events, pollution events are felt much more strongly in an estuary

or wetland than on an adjoining sandy beach because

it is a partially closed system. Even smaller pollution

events, if they reach or are directly deposited into a

wetland, can cause significant long-term impacts due

to stagnation, adsorption into the soil and overall lack

of flushing.

Marine Vessel Tanker Spills. Tanker spills from

foreign flag tankers transiting to Los Angeles harbor

continue to be the most likely source (76% chance of

one or more spills > 1,000 bbl) of a spill and the largest potential source of an oil spill offshore California

(see Oil Spill Risk Section). The mean (average) spill

size from a tanker is calculated as 22,800 bbl for the

period between 1985-1999. Between 9 km and 161

km of coastline is predicted to be contacted with oil

should a spill this size occur.

Should a 22,800 bbl occur from a tanker in an

area where shoreline contact occurs, it is likely that

more than one wetland habitat would be contacted.

While oil spill booms and rapid response would be used

to reduce the amount of oil entering a wetland, with

the large volume released at one time from a tanker

spill, such response measures could be overwhelmed

and it is likely that oil would enter one or more wetland areas. If a substantial amount of oil enters a

wetland, impacts would be high due to rare nature of

the habitat, the potential for irreversible alteration of

the habitat, loss of animals and plants that may not

be able to repopulate from adjacent areas, and loss of

endangered plants, animals and fishes. Once oil contaminates the sediment, a given wetland area may be

completely lost. If one of the larger wetlands such as

Point Mugu or Morro Bay were oiled, losses to wetland habitat regionally would be very high.

The cleanup response can cause impacts as serious as the oil itself. The most critical cleanup response

strategy in preventing long term impacts in a wetland is to prevent oil from reaching the sediment. It

has been shown that cleanup methods which require

the use of machinery or trampling in the wetland that

grind the oil into the sediment can irreversibly damage a wetland (Zengle and Michel, 1996). Insitu burning has been found in heavily oiled areas to successfully remove the oil without introducing the oil into

the sediment (Zengle and Michel, 1996). Several strategies have been developed on a worldwide basis to

mitigate potentially devastating impacts from tanker

spills in wetland areas. These measures would aid

recovery of areas, but would not reduce the overall

impact to the resource from a tanker spill, a high impact.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

Existing OCS Oil and Gas Activities. If you assume that a spill occurs from OCS oil and gas activities, the most likely case is that one or more spills in

the 50-1,000 bbl range would occur and that such a

spill would be 200 bbl or less in volume. The maximally reasonably foreseeable oil spill volume from offshore oil and gas activities is 2,000 bbl, assumed for

purposes of analysis to be a pipeline spill.

In general, impacts to wetland resources from a

200-bbl. spill would be substantially lower than those

discussed for a tanker spill. While impacts could be

significant if large quantities of oil were to contact a

wetland, it is very unlikely that a 200-bbl. offshore oil

spill could result in volumes of oil on the shoreline

sufficient to cause measurable impacts inside a wetland. Most wetland areas are closed naturally during

much of the year, or when open during rainy season,

have outward flow. The Platform Irene pipeline spilled

167 bbl of oil 2 miles offshore Vandenburg Air Force

Base. The hardest hit beach was Surf, about a mile

south of the Santa Ynez River. Because there was an

unusually high tide the evening after the spill, a small

amount of oil escaped over the natural berm at the

Santa Ynez River mouth. Though a very small amount

of oil entered the wetland, evidence of sheen or impacts was not discovered the following morning during intensive sampling (K. Wilson, pers. comm.). Because it is unlikely that oil could enter a wetland in

sufficient quantities to cause serious impacts, impacts

from a 200-bbl spill are estimated to be low.

If oil enters a wetland or estuary, impacts to the

resource include irreversible alteration of the habitat, mortality of endangered birds, plants and fish,

and loss of plants and animals that may be unable to

populate from adjacent areas. For a 2,000 bbl spill,

the potential area of contact is larger than that possible for a 200 bbl spill and contact with a wetland is,

therefore, greater. A 2,000-bbl spill is predicted to

contact between 3 and 53 km of coastline, with a mean

value of 12 km. Given the possible extent of coastline, impacts could range from low to high for a 2,000

spill. If the oil does not enter a wetland either because wetland is closed to inward flow or because of

oil response measures, impacts to the wetland would

be low. If a substantial amount of oil enters a wetland, impacts could be high due to rare nature of the

habitat. The most critical mitigation measure is prevention; the requirements to ensure that operators

are drilling safely and in a manner that does not produce oil spills is the most important step toward protecting wetlands from spilled oil. MMS records of spills

and, lack thereof on the OCS, demonstrate MMS’s

commitment to prevention.

Should an oil spill occur, concerted efforts would

be made by oil response personnel to boom estuary

mouths so that oil would not enter these sensitive

areas. Regular oil spill drills by Clean Seas focus on

strategies for protecting individual wetlands and river

mouths. In a wetland area, particularly the larger

wetlands with tidal influence, the difficulty is in providing sufficient replicate booms to prevent the oil

from entering the wetland, while providing continued

water circulation. The strategy for each wetland area

has been mapped and practiced for many years and it

is expected that this mitigation effort would be highly

effective in preventing oil from entering a wetland.

This is especially true of the smaller spills (> 200 bbl)

because more attention can be focused on an individual

wetland. Equipment may less effective or ineffective

at night, during heavy fog, or in turbulent/wind driven

sea conditions. Weather conditions limiting response

are more common north of Point Conception.

Based on local experience, the fact that a majority of the wetlands are not open to the ocean most of

the year, and the likelihood that available mitigation

would be effective with smaller spills, potential impacts from a 200-bbl spill are expected to be low. Potential impacts from a 2,000-bbl spill range from low

to high and depends on whether and how many wetlands are affected.

Onshore Sources of Oil Spills. There are several hundreds of miles of pipelines onshore carrying

oil products that, if spilled, could affect esturarine and

wetland habitat. These pipelines carry foreign sources

of oil from tanker offloading facilities to distribution

centers, and domestic sources of oil, gas and oil products from onshore oil fields, processing facilities and

refineries to market. Others bring OCS or State crude

oil production onshore. The age of the pipeline network in the State of California is of serious concern

as many of the oil fields and pipeline systems onshore

were laid before current technology and inspection

systems. A spill originating onshore, especially from

a pipeline break crossing a river or streambed could

send oil directly into a wetland. Impacts would be

considered high due to damage to habitat and resources. Mitigation on newer pipelines such as the

Point Arguello onshore segment or SYU pipeline to

Los Flores Canyon include automatic shut down valves

at river crossings to reduce the potential impacts to

wetlands.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Refer

to the cumulative introduction for a description of the

projects being evaluated as part of the 36 Undeveloped Leases.

Pipeline Construction Activities. Wetland resources can be affected through the construction of

onshore pipelines, and by oil spill impacts from existing and future platforms. In general, pipeline corridors are specifically chosen to avoid wetland areas and

are required to do so through local, State and Federal

regulation. Additional mitigation placed on pipeline

corridors near streambeds or estuaries include block
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

valves, ensuring onshore spills can be isolated and limited in volume. Potential areas for these hypothetical

platforms and associated pipeline corridors are not

located near important estuaries. Mitigation measures

required during the placement of the SYU pipeline,

whose corridor is coincident with the hypothetical

Gato pipeline route, included measures to reduce sedimentation of local streambeds. One of these measures

dealt with removal of trees along the route, others

with restricting placement of equipment and pipe during construction to minimize disturbance (Santa Barbara County, 1987). These measures were largely successful in reducing impacts to wetland resources; the

replanting of trees, however, was not successful in

several areas due to drought conditions following

pipelaying. It is assumed that should pipelines eventually be proposed to support future offshore facilities, similar measures would be taken to reduce the

potential impact on wetland and streambed areas

along with additional measures as needed to address

any unsuccessful aspects. Additional environmental

analysis would be done to evaluate specific impacts of

any future project. Given the general location of proposed, impacts to wetlands would be expected to be

low from construction activities. Mitigation proposed

to address sedimentation and disturbance would further reduce identified impacts.

Oil Spill Impacts. As discussed in the Oil Spill

Risk Section, the cumulative oil spill risk for the

project area results from several sources; ongoing and

projected oil and gas production from existing OCS

facilities in the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa

Maria Basin, several potential development projects

(Rocky Point, Cavern Point, Tranquillion Ridge, and

up to five new platforms), ongoing production from

one facility in State waters in the Santa Barbara Channel, two likely oil and gas projects in State waters,

and the tankering of Alaskan and foreign-import oil

through are waters. Tables in this section present

the estimated mean number of spills of various sized

and the probability of their occurrence as a result of

the described activities.

If you assume that a spill occurs from OCS oil

and gas activities, the most likely case is that one or

more spills in the 50-1,000 bbl range would occur from

offshore oil and gas activities over the life of the hypothetical platforms, and that such a spill would be 200

bbl or less in volume. The maximally reasonably foreseeable oil spill volume from future offshore oil and

gas activities is 2,000 bbl, assumed for purposes of

analysis to be a pipeline spill.

Impacts from a 200-bbl spill and 2,000 bbl are

discussed in Section 5.2.10.2.2 above. While the impacts would be the same, the likelihood of occurrence

is slightly increased when the 36 undeveloped activities are added in. Refer to the Oil Spill Risk Section

for a discussion of risk.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION (2002-2030)

 Most wetland and estuary habitat in Southern

California has been severely altered through commercial and residential development, resulting in less than

9% available habitat. This makes any impact resulting in loss of this rare habitat a high impact. Past,

present and possible future cumulative impacts to

wetland resources include: surface runoff resulting

in sedimentation, and contamination, which are low

to moderate impacts, agricultural practices increasing sediment load and introduction of harmful chemicals, producing moderate to high impacts, commercial and residential development resulting in severe

reduction of habitat, a high impact, and pollution

events such as sewage discharges, a low to moderate

impact, risk of tanker spills, a high impact, risk of

spills from existing oil and gas activities, a low to high

impact, and risk of spill from all future OCS development, a low to high impact. Overall impact from the

proposed projects is low; overall risk from existing and

future OCS activities ranges from low to high, depending on the extent of oiling, and number of wetlands

affected from any one spill event.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

6.2.11 CUMULATIVE REFUGES,

PRESERVES AND MARINE

SANCTUARIES IMPACTS (2002-2030)

Cumulative impacts to these resources for the

2002-2030 time period, including those associated with

the proposed and potential development of the 36 currently undeveloped OCS leases, may be found in section 6.2.1 through section 6.2.23, where appropriate.

The cumulative impacts to the biological resources of

the Channel Islands and Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary and the Channel Islands National Park

are summarized in table 6.2.11-1.

Refer to section 5.2.1 through section 5.2.23 for

a discussion of the impacts of the Proposed Action to

these resources for the time period 2002 to 2006.

Table 6.2.11-1. Summary of cumulative impacts for the 2002-2030 time period to the

biological resources of Channel Islands and Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuaries

and the Channel Islands National Park.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________ 

 Resource Impacts 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________ 

Rocky and Sandy Beach Cumulative impacts range from low to high depending on the resource 

 and the source of the impact (e.g., public beach use, sewage, oil spills). 

 See section 6.2.3. 

Seafloor Resources Cumulative impacts range from low to high depending on the resource 

 and the source of the impact (e.g., commercial fishing). See section 

 6.2.4. 

 

Kelp Beds Cumulative impacts range from low to high depending on the source of 

 the impact (e.g., harvesting, commerical fishing). See section 6.2.5. 

Fish Resources Cumulative impacts range from low to moderate depending on the 

 source of the impact (e.g., commercial fishing, oil spills). See section 

 6.2.6. 

 

Marine and Coastal Birds Cumulative impacts range from moderate to high depending on the 

 resource and the source of the impact (e.g., non-OCS tanker spill). See 

 section 6.2.7. 

Marine Mammals Cumulative impacts range from negligible to high depending on the 

 resource and the source of the impact (e.g., routine offshore oil and gas 

 activities, oil spills). See section 6.2.8. 

Threatened and Endangered Species Cumulative impacts range from negligible to high depending on the 

 species involved and the source of the impact (e.g., routine offshore oil 

 and gas activities, oil spills, habitat loss). See section 6.2.9. 

Estuaries and Wetlands Cumulative impacts range from low to high depending on the 

 resource involved and the source of the impact (e.g., surface runoff, 

 development, oil spills). See section 6.2.10. 

Onshore Biological Resources Cumulative impacts range from low to moderate depending on the 

 resource involved and the source of the impact (e.g., pipeline 

 construction, oil spills, development). See section 6.2.12. 

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________ 

 
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

6.2.12 CUMULATIVE ONSHORE

BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES IMPACTS

(2002-2030)

For the 2002-2030 time period, this analysis considers the cumulative impacts to onshore biological

resources from: 1) existing and future Federal and

State offshore oil activity, 2) other anthropogenic (military activities, agriculture, urban development) impact sources, and 3) proposed and potential development of 36 currently undeveloped OCS leases.

Refer to section 5.2.12 for a discussion of effects

from the Proposed Action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the analysis in section 5.2.12.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 undeveloped leases (2002-2030): Cumulative impacts related to offshore oil and gas activities

that may have measurable, long-term (e.g., months

or years) effects on onshore biological resources in the

potentially affected area include habitat loss associated with construction of pipelines and facilities and

accidental oil spills. These impacts have occurred (in

the case of past and present operations and past oil

spills) or may occur (in the case of proposed projects

and potential oil spills) from existing Federal and State

projects and proposed State projects (e.g., Tranquillon

Ridge) whether or not the 36 undeveloped leases are

developed.

Construction Activity. Within the onshore

project area, which extends from the Santa Barbara

County line at the Santa Maria River in the north to

the Santa Ynez River and Point Arguello in the south

and inland to the cities of Santa Maria and Lompoc,

past construction activities associated with OCS-related oil and gas projects are limited to the construction of the Point Pedernales pipeline and the associated Lompoc Oil and Gas Plant. Impacts of construction include vegetation removal, with associated

changes in erosion, sediment deposition, and invasive

weeds, and disturbance to wildlife. Within the onshore project area, these activities may have affected

an estimated 225-245 acres of vegetation and wildlife

habitat (A.D. Little, 1985), the vast majority of which

was related to pipeline construction. Most of this area

has probably recovered, since revegetation efforts were

carried out along the pipeline corridor and natural

recovery would have occurred during the approximately15-year period since the pipeline was completed.

No new onshore pipelines or facilities are planned for

existing Federal and State projects or State-proposed

projects.

Accidental OCS Oil Spills. The impacts of oil

spills associated with onshore pipelines depends on

the location and extent of the pipeline rupture in relation to local topography, habitat, and wildlife abundance. The impact to vegetation and wildlife of an oil

leak from a buried pipeline are generally limited in

extent due to the limited mobility of oil in soil and the

likelihood of detection and repair of the problem before the spread of oil is extensive. The cleanup process, which is another source of impacts, would consist of removal and replacement of contaminated soil

and revegetation with native species. Although limited in extent, recovery could take several years, depending on the type of vegetation affected by the spill.

Impacts could be more severe, however, if a break occurs at a stream crossing or oil enters a stream or

wetland from a nearby spill. Both the areal extent

and duration of the impacts could be greater than that

for a buried pipeline. Impacts would also be more severe if rare, threatened, or endangered species were

involved.

Overall, in the onshore project area, past,

present, and future impacts to onshore biological resources of potential oil spills from existing Federal,

State, and State-proposed oil and gas operations are

expected to be low.

Impacts from Non-Offshore Oil Sources. Other

factors that have cumulative impacts to onshore biological resources include: agriculture, urban development, onshore oil and gas activities, road construction, erosion, sedimentation, stream diversion, fire,

and pollution (County of Santa Barbara, 2000). Overall, the cumulative impacts of these factors to onshore

biological resources range from low to moderate, depending on the level of future urban expansion.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The following is a brief discussion of the impacts to onshore

biological resources that may occur if the 36 undeveloped leases are developed. A comprehensive, detailed

environmental analysis, including a Section 7 threatened and endangered species consultation with the

Fish and Wildlife Service, will be conducted as development plans are submitted on these leases. A potential scenario for the exploration and development of

the 36 undeveloped leases is provided in section 5.1.

Of the activities and possible accidental events described in section 5.1, only activities associated with

onshore pipeline and facility construction in northern Santa Barbara County and accidental onshore oil

spills may have measurable, long-term (e.g., months

or years) effects on onshore biological resources.

The scenario for the 36 leases discusses the installation of up to five new platforms. The proposed

location for some of these platforms would call for the

onshore construction of a 24-inch oil emulsion and a

10-inch gas pipeline and an onshore processing facility in northern Santa Barbara County. Santa Barbara County (2000) has conducted an analysis of potential locations for a pipeline corridor and processing facility within the onshore project area. Although
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

preliminary, the County’s analysis has identified two

locations near the town of Casmalia (Casmalia East

and Casmalia West), that may avoid many of the biological constraints that are known to occur in the area.

For the purposes of this EIS, it is assumed that the

Casmalia East site will be the location for the onshore

facility. The County has also identified a pipeline corridor for this facility, which may avoid many of the

biological constraints that are known to occur in the

area (see section 4.6.10). The location of this corridor

is described in the County’s draft report (County of

Santa Barbara, 2000) and in section 5.1. For the purposes of this EIS, it is assumed that the pipeline to

the onshore processing facility would be constructed

within this corridor. The County estimates the length

of this corridor at about 7 miles; therefore, the total

area affected by the pipeline would be about 85 acres,

based on the 100-ft corridor width estimated for the

Point Pedernales Pipeline (A.D. Little, 1985). Based

on the 16-acre area estimated for the Lompoc Oil and

Gas Plant (A.D. Little, 1985), the development of the

36 leases could affect about 100 acres of land. The

level of impact to this area would depend on the types

of habitat and wildlife species involved, the presence

of rare, threatened, and endangered species, and the

effectiveness of mitigation measures, including revegetation efforts.

The Casmalia East site is located within the

Casmalia Oil Field (County of Santa Barbara, 2000),

and this area may already be disturbed to some degree. Although a survey of the biological resources of

this site has not been conducted (County of Santa

Barbara, 2000), the County indicates a concern for

birds of prey and a riparian corridor to the south of

the Casmalia East site. When development plans are

submitted requesting approval of onshore construction, a detailed survey of the affected areas, including

birds of prey and riparian habitat, would be conducted,

from which a comprehensive impact analysis could

be carried out. Until such an analysis is carried out,

it is assumed that the impacts to onshore biological

resources from the development of the 36 leases will

be insignificant (low). This is based largely on the

results of Santa Barbara County’s Draft North County

Siting Study (2000), one of the goals of which was to

identify areas “that are relatively unconstrained with

respect to development of oil and gas facilities serving offshore production.”

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030): The

cumulative impacts to onshore biological resources in

the project area from all sources for the period from

2002-2030, including any activities and accidental

events that may be associated with the development

of the 36 undeveloped leases, range from low to moderate, depending on the habitat and species involved,

the occurrence of an extensive onshore oil spill, and

the level of future urban development.

6.2.13 CUMULATIVE CULTURAL

RESOURCES IMPACTS (2002-2030)

This section examines

• the cumulative impacts to cultural resources

without the development of the 36 leases in

the period 2002 to 2030;

• the additional cumulative impacts to cultural

resources from development of the 36 leases

in the period 2002 to 2030.

• Native American concerns in the period 2002

to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.13 for a discussion of effects

for the time period 2002 to 2006. The significance

criteria for the following analysis are the same as the

criteria for the time period 2002 to 2006 presented in

Section 5.2.13, as is the discussion of factors that influence cumulative impacts to cultural resources.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002 to 2030):

Physical disturbance caused by non-OCS development

activities will be the source of project and cumulative

impacts to submerged sites and upland sites. These

sources include installation of seafloor cables, construction of sewage treatment infrastructure, commercial trawl fishing, anchoring, dredging, and unauthorized removal of artifacts by recreational scuba divers.

Onshore, cumulative impacts may occur from a full

range of construction activities and pilferage. Natural processes, such as shoreline erosion, also contribute to the destruction of cultural resources. Because

of stringent monitoring and mitigation of local, state,

and Federal agencies for actions that may affect cultural resources, permitted actions are likely to cause

little cumulative impact.

For example, a recent California Coastal Commission staff report noted that since 1988 the number of registered archaeological sites in San Luis

Obispo County increased from 1,000 to 2,055 sites,

most of which fall in the County’s coastal zone. The

report noted that the greatest source of destruction

of archaeological resources came from urbanization

and uncontrolled public access. Factors that must be

addressed to ensure adequate protection of archaeological resources include adequate identification of

resources and avoidance and mitigation to known resources (CCC 2001).

Because of the nature of clean-up operations, oil

spill related impacts are not expected offshore. Onshore, archaeological sites could be affected by oil spills

from OCS production or non-OCS tankering and associated containment and cleanup activities. Oil spills

could alter the chemical composition of archaeological materials and render them useless for carbon-14
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

dating. Oil-soaked soils would also be difficult to excavate and process. Oil spill containment and cleanup

activities could result in extensive impacts to site deposits from the excavation of containment barriers

(dams, berms, and trenches) and the mechanized removal of oil-soaked earth.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002 to 2030): As

noted above, physical disturbance of the seafloor is

the primary cause of direct impacts to offshore archaeological resources. For OCS development, operators are required to either avoid potential sites or conduct further investigations of potential sites to document their true nature and design further mitigation,

if necessary. As a result, the greatest potential for

impact comes from seafloor disturbance of previously

undetected sites by construction of infrastructure

(platforms and pipelines). Drilling operations can directly impact prehistoric cultural resources by drilling through buried archaeological deposits. After the

infrastructure is installed, potential for seafloor disturbance from OCS operations ceases.

lndirect offshore impacts resulting from introduction of a rig would include permanent disturbance

of the magnetic field from the time of construction to

an undetermined but lengthy period until decommissioning. These disturbances can prevent identification of previously undetected cultural resources.

Magnetic disturbance surrounding a typical platform

covers a roughly circular area with a radius of approximately 460 meters. Indirect impacts from the magnetic field of pipelines will be similar in duration to

those associated with platforms. The horizontal zone

of magnetic disturbance from a typical large pipeline

may extend to 160 meters or more on either side of

the centerline.

Onshore, the primary cause of direct impacts is

the disturbance to sites by earth moving and excavation. Construction-related activities that could directly

or indirectly impact cultural resources include removal

of vegetation from a ROW corridor, surface and subsurface disturbance in zones of heavy equipment

movement, excavating a common pipeline trench for

the lines, and backfilling pipeline trenches and cleaning the ROW with heavy equipment.

Indirect impacts to a site result from increased

erosion of an site attributable to the original action

and use of areas outside of construction corridors for

expedient movement of construction equipment, and

from unauthorized artifact collection.

Gato Canyon Unit Development. Development

of the Gato Canyon Unit would, at most, result in no

impacts, to offshore or onshore archaeological resources. Based on past experience, any potential impact would most likely result from encountering previously undetected sites. Pre-construction analysis

should identify any seafloor anomalies that may be

potential archaeological resources and allow planned

avoidance of those sites. The platform-to-shore pipelines intersect areas containing submerged landforms

considered highly sensitive for prehistoric sites. However, since the pipeline will not be buried in this area,

no impact will result. Onshore pipeline construction

will occur in a previously surveyed and currently utilized pipeline corridor. In the past, the stringent archaeological resources monitoring and mitigation requirements of Santa Barbara County have reduce the

likelihood of direct and indirect impact to onshore

archaeological resources, even when the sites were

previously undetected.

Bonito Unit Development. Offshore development of the Bonito Unit is not expected to result in

impacts to archaeological resources. Pre-construction

analysis should identify any seafloor anomalies that

may be potential archaeological resources and allow

planned avoidance of those sites. Prehistoric sites and

sensitive submerged landforms are not likely to be

present since Platform Bonito and the pipeline to Platform Irene is seaward of the 16,500-year-old shoreline, well before the time of known human occupation

of the area. There is no new onshore construction

associated with the Bonito Unit development.

Northern Santa Maria Basin. Offshore development in the Northern Santa Maria Basin would, at

most, result in negligible impacts to offshore and onshore archaeological resources. Based on past experience, these impacts would most likely result from encountering previously undetected sites. Pre-construction analysis should identify any seafloor anomalies

that may be potential archaeological resources and

allow planned avoidance of those sites.

Sensitive submerged landforms are present in

the offshore area. The landform area located on lease

OCS-P-0409, hypothetical location of platform SMB

A, is associated with the 18,000-year-old shoreline.

The area on lease OCS-P-0431, the hypothetical location of platform SMB C, is seaward of the 16,500-yearold shoreline. Both date to the period well before the

time of known human occupation of the area and are

not likely to contain prehistoric archaeological resource sites. There are no relict landforms identified

on lease OCS-P-0422, the area associated with the

hypothetical location of platform SMB C. The hypothetical platform-to-shore pipeline intersect areas containing submerged landforms considered highly sensitive for prehistoric sites. However, since the pipeline will not be buried in this area, no impact is anticipated.

Several vessels have been lost in the area from

the Santa Maria River to Purisima Point. Stranding,

where the ship runs aground on the coastline or shallow offshore rocks and reefs, is the primary cause of
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

vessel loss. In addition, the area immediately adjacent to the coastline is considered a sensitive area for

locating wrecked vessels. The hypothetical platformto-shore pipeline traverses this area and has the potential to impact significant shipwreck sites immediately offshore and associated debris onshore if sites

are not detected and avoided.

The archaeological site data summarized in table

4.7.4.2-1 reveal that the potential corridor of the pipeline landfall to the processing plant contains several

prehistoric and historic sites. In the past, the stringent archaeological resources monitoring and mitigation requirements of Santa Barbara County and VAFB

reduced the likelihood of significant direct and indirect impact to onshore archaeological resources, even

when the sites were previously undetected.

The extent of the damage to archaeological resources from an oil spill would depend on the area

oiled by a spill, the presence of sites in the area, and

the nature of cleanup operations. Accident-related

impacts are not expected to offshore archaeological

resources. Resources located in the intertidal zone,

such as portions of wreck sites around the Channel

Islands, could be affected. (All islands within the Channel Islands National Park and Channel Islands National marine Sanctuary, are either listed or eligible

for listing Archaeological Districts on the National

Register of Historic Places.) Onshore, archaeological

sites could be affected by oil spills and associated containment and cleanup activities. Along the coastline

that could be affected by the three spills analyzed,

known sites tend to be concentrated around watersheds in less-developed areas. Oil spill-related impacts, should they occur, could be significant depending on the characteristics of the sites affected and the

ability to mitigate those impacts. The larger the spill,

the greater the likelihood of impacts. In 1997, Federal departments and agencies entered into a programmatic agreement to ensure that historic properties

(that is, cultural resources) are taken into account in

their planning for an conduct of the emergency response under the National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (ACHP, 1997).

Summary and Conclusions (2002 to 2030):

Archaeological resources are present in the area.

Impacts are not anticipated as a result of the anchoring or exploration drilling from the proposed projects

since these operations will avoid potential resource

sites. Cumulative impacts are the same with the proposal as they are without the proposal. Significant

cumulative impacts to archaeological resources from

potential construction of offshore and onshore production facilities are not likely. Oil spill related impacts, should they occur, could be cumulatively significant.

NATIVE AMERICAN CONCERNS

Cumulative impacts discussed below are in addition to those listed above for archaeological resources. Impacts to pre-historic archaeological sites,

even those not considered significant, are a particularly acute concern to Native Americans.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases: Without development of the leases, the cumulative impacts are the

same as described above for the Proposed Action. The

impact from existing offshore oil and gas platforms of

the traditional cultural property at Point Conception

remains as long as the platforms are in the viewshed.

Cumulative Impacts With Development of the

36 Undeveloped Leases:

Bonito Unit Development. Offshore development

of the Bonito Unit will place another platform in the

viewshed of Point Conception, resulting in the marginal expansion of an already existing low impact from

the Point Arguello platforms. This impact will remain

as long as an offshore structure is visible from Point

Conception.

Northern Santa Maria Basin. A number of concerns expressed by Native Americans regarding the

direct and indirect effects of construction will occur

as a result of the pipeline and facilities in Shuman

Canyon. The traditional use of resources in Shuman

Canyon has not been evaluated. However, the impact

could be of moderate to high significance if the resources are present and become locally unavailable

for a period of time.

Summary and Conclusion (2002 to 2030)

A low level of impact is expected from the placement of Platform Bonito in the Point Conception area.

Routine operations are not expected to affect the traditional cultural resource qualities of Point Conception that make it eligible for the National Register.

Moderate to high cumulative impacts to archaeological resources from potential construction of offshore

and onshore production facilities and offshore spills

are possible. Participation by Native Americans in the

Santa Barbara County monitoring and mitigation activities have proven very effective in addressing Native American concerns regarding construction impacts, although some disagreements were noted in the

past. Potential impacts to traditional resources in

Shuman Canyon, if present, could be moderate to high.

In past projects, moderate to high impacts have been

successfully mitigated by local, State, and Federal

regulations and mitigation measures.
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

6.2.14 CUMULATIVE VISUAL RESOURCES

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

The visual impact of offshore production structures and onshore processing facilities has been a

major concern of the public since the inception of offshore oil development more than a century ago

(Lima1994; MMS 1996). A number of strategies developed to address visual impacts from drilling on state

offshore leases including restrictions on where development would be permitted, technology that would

be used for development (platforms, subsea completions, slant drilling from upland locations), and the

location of onshore facilities. In 1967, to minimize

the number of onshore processing plants, Santa Barbara County developed criteria for the siting of consolidated onshore processing facilities. These criteria

were eventually crafted into zoning ordinances requiring the use of consolidated facilities for the processing of offshore oil and gas (Lima, 1997).

This section examines the

• factors that affect cumulative impacts to visual resources from offshore oil and gas development;

• cumulative impacts without the development

of the 36 leases for the time period from 2002

to 2030;

• additional cumulative impacts from development of the 36 leases for the time period from

2002 to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.14 for a discussion of effects

for the time period 2002 to 2006 from the Proposed

Action.

Factors Affecting Cumulative Impacts to

Visual Resources

Locations. The rail line, beaches, and roads

noted are highly sensitive travel routes and use areas. Most of the impact occurs from views from these

areas.

Platforms. “Platforms” as the term is used in

this section refers to OCS production platforms, not

the MODU. The size and longevity or OCS production platforms and other infrastructure requires a

more sophisticated methodology for examining projectrelated effects of these structures compared to the

MODU. Please refer to the visual resources section

of previous offshore development environmental impact statements for a description of this methodology

that examines effects using the dimensions of visual

character, visual sensitivity, and visual quality.

The impacts of the groups or clusters of platforms, once installed, must be considered together.

Although some platforms may be scheduled to be in

place later than the other others in the group or cluster, the cumulative difference in impacts caused by a

single versus two or more somewhat closely spaced

platforms cannot be discerned. Adding an element to

the cluster does not change a significant cumulative

impact, but alters the area of the area of the impact.

As such, the contribution of existing clusters of platforms, such as those in the Santa Barbara Channel,

to cumulative visual impacts will not cease until the

last platform in the cluster is decommissioned and at

least the visible above-water structure is removed.

The primary aspect of platform operation having visual importance is the appearance of the platforms themselves, although the vessel and helicopter

traffic for supply and crew transport would be noticeable, as would occasional flaring. Under optimum visibility, platforms and support activity are evident and

attract attention. The platforms’ prominence may be

further enhanced on clear days by their color that may

be highly reflective, increasing the platforms’ dominance over a significant portion of available ocean

views. Because they would be stationary and unlike

vessels in configuration, they would probably be seen

as incongruous features on the horizon. However,

because of the greater-than-180-degree views available from the most beaches in the area, the platforms

and their support activities would tend to be seen as

co-dominant overall, with attention being drawn

equally toward the headlands or other portions of the

coast.

Some consideration must be given to the reduced

visibility offshore during the summer months. Further, when visibility extends to and beyond the platforms, if haze and fog prevail in the background, the

color of the platforms may cause them to blend in

during part of the time they are “visible.” Because of

visual conditions at such times and the overall quality would remain unchanged. The impact under these

circumstances would, therefore, be negligible and insignificant.

However, it is on clear days that the scenic aspects of the coast are most apparent and viewing conditions most critical. The visual impact of the platforms on such days is substantial, when it occurs in a

highly scenic area and is viewed from a highly sensitive public use area.

Pipelines. Visual impacts associated with onshore pipelines would primarily result from installation. No dominate aspects of normal pipeline operation should be visible. Upon decommissioning, if the

pipelines are sealed and left underground soil and

vegetation would not be disturbed. If pipelines are

removed, vegetation would be destroyed. Pipelineassociated above ground equipment may be installed

near the landfall. The small relative size of this equipment suggests that it would not alter the visual quality of the area, and could be screened with appropri-
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

ate vegetation.

The presence during the construction stage of

the project of the workforce, heavy equipment, and

staging areas, though attracting attention to the point

of dominating certain views, would only present shortterm visual impacts. More important are the grading, clearing, trenching and backfilling activities. In

most cases, the potential for adverse visual impacts

from pipeline construction would be greatest at stream

crossings where adjacent slopes and banks are steep

and wooded. In such areas direct visual impacts would

be due primarily to the destruction of riparian vegetation and disturbance of soil within the right-of-way

by the movement of heavy equipment during grading,

clearing and trenching. Indirect visual effects in the

drainage areas would be expected where subsequent

erosion and gullying could occur. Particularly vulnerable are the steep canyon slopes and stream banks.

Onshore Facilities. An onshore oil and gas processing facility is a major industrial facility, often covering several acres with equipment and towers of various heights, cylindrical storage tanks and pumps, pipes

and compressors. Those facilities lower than 40 feet

could be screened from view by landscaping but the

visual impacts of taller structures would be long term.

Facilities sited in a manner that does not appreciably

change the visual quality or the visual condition of an

area often result in negligible or insignificant impacts.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002 to 2030):

Without development of the undeveloped leases, the

cumulative effects of present development will not

increase. No other projects have been identified which

will result in the permanent emplacement of abovewater structures in the seascape for areas already

under development. The contribution of existing clusters of platforms, such as those in the Santa Barbara

Channel, to cumulative visual impacts will cease when

the last platform in the cluster is decommissioned and

at least the visible above-water structure is removed.

Onshore facilities, when decommissioned, are restored

to their pre-development condition.

The visual impact of offshore production structures and onshore processing facilities has been a

major concern of the public since the inception of offshore oil development more than a century ago

(Lima1994; MMS 1996). A number of strategies developed to address visual impacts from drilling on state

offshore leases including restrictions on where development would be permitted, technology that would

be used for development (platforms, subsea completions, slant drilling from upland locations), and the

location of onshore facilities.

In 1967, to minimize the number of onshore processing plants, Santa Barbara County developed criteria for the siting of consolidated onshore processing

facilities. These criteria were eventually crafted into

zoning ordinances requiring the use of consolidated

facilities for the processing of offshore oil and gas

(Lima, 1997).

Platforms are functionally designed and sited to

maximize resource recovery. To the extent possible

consistent with that objective, operators have been

encouraged to maximize well slots per platform to

minimize the number of platforms needed to develop

a field, orient platforms so as to minimize the profile

to populated areas, and select colors that blend in with

the environment (Lima 1994). While these strategies

minimized visual impacts, significant impacts remained. Each additional development created new

project-related impacts and increased the area of cumulative impacts. Strategies developed address residual project-related and cumulative affects to visual

resources include siting of facilities, screening of facilities, and payments to dedicated funds to offset the

impacts (Science Applications, Inc. 1984, Arthur D.

Little 1984, 1985). These strategies have had varying

degrees of success. (See, for example, SBC. 1993).

Incremental Impacts from Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002 to 2030):

The cumulative impact analysis for visual resources is divided into new development from existing facilities, the northern Santa Maria Basin, the

Bonito Unit, and the Gato Canyon Unit.

New Activity from Existing Facilities: Foreseeable activity from existing facilities includes:

• Exploratory drilling and possible development

of the Cavern Point Unit from Platform Gail.

• Development of the Tranquillion Ridge field

from Platform Irene.

• Development of the Rocky Point Unit and

Sword Unit from Hildago, Hermosa, and Harvest.

Development from existing facilities does not

contribute to the magnitude of cumulative impacts on

visual resources. Visual impacts from these platforms

occurred with original development. To the extent that

activity extends the use of the facility beyond that

originally anticipated, the duration of the cumulative

impact will be longer.

Northern Santa Maria Basin: The three new

platforms in the Northern Santa Maria Basin will be

visible, to varying degrees, from adjacent public recreation areas such as the Nipomo Dunes Preserve,

Point Sal State Beach, VAFB Fishing Access and Ocean

Beach County Park as well as the coastal areas of

southern San Luis Obispo County. In addition, at least

two of the platforms will be visible from the Southern

Pacific Rail Line as it joins the coastal area south of

Point Sal. While the existing Platform Irene may be
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

viewed from portions of this area, the proposed platforms introduce more prominent offshore structures

not previously experienced by viewers in this area.

Also, the scarcity of public access to this area may

tend to concentrate the visual effects.

Though much of the time the visual impact of

the offshore platforms more than three nautical miles

offshore would be reduced by restricted visibility, the

potential impacts at other times, will be intense, be

highly controversial, and therefore, be considered significant. The effects, moreover, would be long term,

lasting until decommissioning.

The impact of pipeline construction is local and

short-term. As such, it is not expected to contribute

significantly to cumulative impacts that would be associated with construction activities on Vandenberg

AFB.

The cumulative impact to visual resources from

the placement of the processing plant near Casmalia,

or at another location, is discussed in the North

County Facility Siting Study (SBC 2000). Contribution of the project to cumulative impacts will be dependent on several factors including: the visual character of the location selected for the facility; how well

the facility can be shielded from public view through

terrain or other methods; the effectiveness of the

screening methods, and the character of other development in the area.

This analysis assumes the placement of more

than one platform in the Northern Santa Maria Basin. According to previous analysis (URS 1986, Arthur

D. Little 1985) the placement of any one of the three

platforms is necessary and sufficient to create a highly

significant visual impact in the area where one currently does not exist. Since other development projects

in the area do not result in a visible permanent structure within the seascape, the second platforms creates a significant cumulative impact. Thereafter, additional platforms expand the area of impact of an already existing significant cumulative impact.

Bonito Unit: The Bonito platform will be visible from Ocean Beach County Park and Jalama Beach

County Park, but the appearance of the platform will

not be the prominent feature because of existing infrastructure, distance from shore, and periods of restricted visibility. From Ocean Beach County Park,

he platform will be viewed in a cluster with the existing Platform Irene and Platform Hildago. Similarly,

from Jalama County Park the platform will be viewed

as the most distant element in the cluster formed by

the existing platforms Hermosa, Harvest, and Hildago.

Given the grand scale of the scene and the distance at

which the platforms would be seen from both parks,

the platform would probably be overlooked, contributing little to the cumulative effect. The platform in

and of itself, may be viewed from the Southern Pacific

Rail Line as an element in the scenic Point Arguello

area. As such, its contribution to the cumulative impact of views from rail line is more pronounced and

must be considered a significant cumulative impact.

Since the project uses existing pipelines to shore

and onshore processing infrastructure, it is not expected to result in a significant contribution to cumulative visual impacts.

The platform-to-shore pipeline will use the existing Platform Irene pipeline, landfall and onshore

pipelines. On shore processing of Bonito production

will occur at existing facilities. As such, Bonito Unit

production will not contribute to the cumulative effects from the onshore processing facility and pipelines.

In summary, addition of the Bonito Unit platform marginally expands the area of an already significant cumulative impact created by Point Arguello

and Point Pedernales Unit platforms. The impact is

most discernable from the Southern Pacific Rail line

as it approaches point Arguello and less so from parks

in the area. Bonito Unit production using existing

platform-to-onshore pipelines and onshore processing

is not expected to make a significant contribution to

the cumulative impacts.

Gato Canyon Unit: Platform Gato clusters with

existing platforms SYU platforms—Hondo, Heritage,

and Harmony, and the Las Flores Canyon consolidated

facility. The emplacement of platform Hondo in 1976

introduced an industrial appearance to the largely

unmodified seascape and created a significant visual

impact. The placement of the OST vessel in 1981 approximately 3.1 nautical miles offshore, and platform

Heritage and Harmony in 1993 incrementally added

elements to the seascape, with each element increasing the area and magnitude of the cumulative visual

impacts. Similarly, decommissioning and removal of

the OST in 1994 removed an element and incrementally reduced area of the impact somewhat. The removal of this single element was not sufficient to reduce the significant visual impact to insignificant. The

cumulative, significant impact to visual resources is

expected remain until all offshore platforms in the area

are decommissioned.

Platform Gato will be most prominent in the

view from El Capitan State Park, and the adjacent

portions of Highway U.S. 101 and the Southern Pacific Railroad line, becoming a dominant, permanent

feature. From this location, the platform becomes the

most dominant element in the cluster of platforms in

the Santa Ynez Unit. As such, the cumulative effect

of the platform is to expand eastward the area of the

already significant visual effects from the Santa Ynez

Unit.

The location-specific conditions would be altered,

with the effects being long-term. For part of the year,

the Gato platform’s distance from shore and fog, which

occurs frequently during several months each year,
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

would partially conceal the platform. Also, due to its

distance from shore, the platform will appear to be

small relative to the breadth of the panoramic view.

However, since only other OCS platforms are within

the field of view, the platform would be obvious when

Channel haze and fog is at a minimum. Given that

the coastal area is a sensitive area (scenic quality is a

locally and regionally important resource), such effects would contribute to an already significant impact.

The visual impacts noted are not restricted to

El Capitan Beach State Park. Cumulatively, the

Refugio Beach and Gaviota Beach State Parks would

be similarly affected, except that not all of the platforms are visible from these parks. On the other hand,

Gaviota Beach currently has an industrialized appearance, given that a railroad trestle crosses the park and

a pier cuts off much of the potential panoramic view.

Therefore, the visual impacts of the Gato platform

would be minimal for this park. Refugio Beach is similar in quality to El Capitan Beach; the effects there

would be similar in significance to those at the latter

park.

Throughout the area of cumulative impacts,

views of the platforms from U.S. Highway 101 would

be transitory; landforms and roadside vegetation obscure ocean views intermittently. The direction of view

normally is away from the ocean and along the direction of travel, with attention often being drawn inland to interesting rock formations, canyons, foothills

and the mountain crestline. The foregoing statement

applies to travel in both the north- and south-bound

lanes.

The platform-to-shore pipeline will utilize the

existing SYU landfall and pipeline corridor. On shore

processing of Gato Canyon production takes place at

existing facilities in the Las Flores Canyon consolidated facility. These onshore elements are not generally visible. As such, Gato Canyon production will

not contribute to the cumulative effects from the onshore processing facility and pipelines.

In summary, addition of Platform Gato expands

the area of an already significant cumulative impact

created by the Santa Ynez Unit platforms. The impact is most discernable from parks in the area, less

so from highway and rail lines. Pipelines and onshore

processing uses existing corridors and facilities and

are not expected to make a significant contribution to

the cumulative impacts.

Summary and Conclusion (2002 to 2030):

• The only source of project and subsequent cumulative visual impacts for the seascape originates from additional platforms from new offshore development since no other foreseeable

activity results in above-water structures.

• New platforms do not increase the already significant cumulative impact to visual resources.

It does expand the area where those effects

are realized.

• Using existing onshore and offshore facilities

in new development does not create new visual impacts but may extend the duration over

which those impacts are present.

• Pipeline construction and operation is not expected to significantly increase cumulative impacts.

• The construction of onshore processing facilities in the northern Santa Maria Basin may

create significant impacts to onshore visual

resources.

6.2.15 CUMULATIVE RECREATION

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

Generally, impacts to coastal and beach recreation and associated tourism from offshore development that may result from the following:

1. temporary effects from offshore development

activity such as use of campground facilities

by construction crews, change in use patterns

from the activity, or beach or campground closures due to offshore to onshore pipeline construction.

2. long-term effects from the presence of onshore

infrastructure such as processing facilities and

offshore oil platforms that may change use patterns.

3. temporary and long-term effects of an oil spill

that may change use patterns.

This section examines

• the cumulative impacts to recreation without

the development of the 36 leases in the time

period from 2002 to 2030;

• the additional cumulative impacts to recreation

from development of the 36 leases in the time

period from 2002 to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.15 for a discussion of effects

for the time period 2002 to 2006. The significance

criteria for the following analysis are the same as the

criteria for the time period 2002 to 2006 presented in

Section 5.2.15, as is the discussion of factors that influence cumulative impacts to recreation
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002 to 2030): The

cumulative impacts described in section 5.2.15 for 2002

to 2006 will continue through 2030. CREF payments

are reduced as each OCS project contributing to the

cumulative effect is decommissioned. Additional impacts will occur from anticipated population growth

in the area.

Incremental Impacts from the Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002 to 2030):

New Activity from Existing Facilities.

Foreseeable activity from existing facilities includes:

• Delineation drilling and possible development

of the Cavern Point Unit from Platform Gail.

• Development of the Tranquillion Ridge field

from Platform Irene.

• Development of the Rocky Point Unit and

Sword Unit from Hildago, Hermosa, and Harvest.

Development from existing facilities does not

appear to contribute to the magnitude of cumulative

impacts on recreational resources. Impacts from these

platforms occurred with original development. To the

extent that activity extends the use of the facility beyond that originally anticipated, the duration of the

cumulative impact will be longer. In the case of the

cumulative recreational impacts from Platforms Irene,

Hildago, Hermosa, and Harvest, these are currently

being mitigated by Coastal Resources Enhancement

Fund payments to Santa Barbara County.

Existing offshore platforms provide an opportunity for an unique recreational scuba diving experience. However, this opportunity is very limited and

currently does not appear to offer a significant increase

in the number of locations available to divers.

Northern Santa Maria Basin

The remote locations of the three platforms in

the Northern Santa Maria Basin do not appear to interfere with recreational uses of the coastal area. The

platform-to-shore pipeline construction will not interfere with on-shore recreation since the pipeline landfall site is within the area restricted to access by the

public by VAFB. Pipeline construction activity in the

area of Pt. Sal Road could impede access to Point Sal

State Park, which is currently closed because of damage to the road from storms. Campground use by

project construction workers may impact campground

availability during the pipeline construction project.

These project impacts will incrementally contribute

to cumulative impacts from existing offshore oil and

gas projects were found to be significant, especially

during the pipeline construction phase. The cumulative impact to recreational resources from the processing plant near Casmalia, or at another location, is

not known, but could be locally significant during the

construction period.

Bonito Unit.

Because of it’s remote location and lack of onshore construction, the Bonito Unit development does

not appear to interfere with recreational uses of the

coastal area. Still, since cumulative impacts from existing offshore oil and gas projects were found to be

significant, Bonito Unit development will incrementally contribute to the cumulative impact.

Gato Canyon

Because of its distance from shore, Gato Canyon Unit is not expected to interfere with recreational

use of offshore area. The construction of the platform to shore pipeline may temporarily preclude certain water contact uses in the nearshore area, such as

scuba diving, kayaking, and swimming, and beach recreation activities and use of the bike path between

Refugio State Park and El Capitan State Park at the

pipeline landfall. Campground use by project construction workers may impact campground availability

during the pipeline construction project. These project

impacts will incrementally contribute to cumulative

impacts from existing offshore oil and gas projects were

previously found to be significant.

Summary and Conclusion (2002 to 2030):

• The greatest potential for effects to recreation

is realized primarily through the use of campground by personnel engaged in onshore construction of onshore facilities, and temporary

closures of or reduced access to coastal recreation facilities and activities because of construction activity. Depending on the length of

the action and the time of the year, low to high

impact could result.

• Once production has commenced, routine operations do not appear to interfere with any

location specific recreational activities. However, the projects may contribute to the general, diffused cumulative impact on coastaldependent and coastal enhanced recreation,

aesthetics, and tourism associated with previous offshore oil and gas projects in the area.

Previous impacts of this type have been mitigated by CREF payments, which continue over

the life of the project.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

• The greatest demand for recreational facility

use is the projected increase in California’s

population.

• Cumulative impacts could result from oil spills.

These impacts are very location and seasonally specific for small spills of 200 barrels, less

so for spills of 2,000 barrels or larger. Impacts

could be low to high, local to regional.

6.2.16 CUMULATIVE COMMUNITY

CHARACTERISTICS AND TOURISM

RESOURCES IMPACTS (2002-2030)

The development of a community’s conditions

and resources, including its sense of place, develop

over a long period of time and is the product of many

interaction, of continuity and change. Tourism is one

roust indicator of a community’s characteristics. At

any point in time, a community may be the sum of

past, existing, and emerging social, cultural, and economic forces. A community’s development is not

static; it is the product of continuity and change. This

section addresses the impacts of the Proposed Action

and cumulative effects from production on Ventura,

Santa Barbara, and Ventura County, the areas most

proximate to the offshore activity evaluated in this

document.

This section examines

• the cumulative impacts to community characteristics and tourism resources without the development of the 36 leases in the time period

from 2002 to 2030;

• the additional cumulative impacts to community characteristics and tourism resources

from development of the 36 leases in the time

period from 2002 to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.16 for a discussion of effects

for the time period 2002 to 2006. The significance

criteria for the following analysis are the same as the

criteria for the time period 2002 to 2006 presented in

Section 5.2.16.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002 to 2030):

Without the development of the 36 leases, the onshore

and offshore petroleum extraction industry will continue its decline across the region culminating in the

decommissioning of offshore structures and onshore

processing plants. Impacts to community characteristics and tourism resources will come primarily in

the form of further decline in public revenues from

property taxes and other taxes, revenues, and fees.

Furthermore, the conversion of former oil development and processing properties to other uses may require revision to land use planning, regulation, and

zoning designation.

Ventura County. For this area, the trend will

be part of the general adjustment communities have

faced to the gradual decline in the once prevalent petroleum extraction industry and industrial diversification that the communities have addressed since the

1980s. Larger issues of importance to the community’s

characteristics, such as conversion of agricultural land,

urbanization, and population growth will overshadow

the decline in petroleum production.

Santa Barbara County. Without development,

offshore and onshore petroleum production will continue to decline, offshore structures and the onshore

consolidated facilities at Gaviota and Las Flores Canyon near El Capitan will be decommissioned. These

consolidated facilities comprise “offshore industrial

parks” created to accommodate offshore development

while minimizing industrialization of the coast, community-level concern dating back to beginning of offshore development (Lima 1994, 1997). The decommissioning of the sites, which are required to be restored

to pre-development conditions, will be part of the large

debate on how to protect the so-called Gaviota coast

from encroaching development and conversion of the

area from agriculture and open range into more intense or dense development. Community effects would

be relatively minor. Local government would have to

address declines in the property tax base from onshore

processing sites. Local government administrative

structures may have to be realigned (assuming restructuring of the County’s Energy Division) (MMS 1998b).

Mitigation payments to the Coastal Resources Enhancement Fund would cease and the projects it funds

would have to secure funding from other sources.

Operations at VAFB are expected to continue without effects from the decline and demise of OCS activity. Like portions of Ventura County, without development of the 36 leases, North County communities

will continue to deal with the trend of general adjustment communities faced to the gradual decline in the

once prevalent petroleum extraction industry.

San Luis Obispo County. Of the three areas,

San Luis Obispo County will be faced with the least

impact without development of the 36 leases. Since

the County has not experienced offshore development,

there will be no adjustments for communities to make

as a result of the cessation of the activity in other area

of the Pacific OCS. However, communities will continue to address consequences of onshore development. For example, if the characteristics of Avila

Beach have indeed changed as a result of the

remediation of the tank farm spill, that community

will have to determine what characteristics will replace it. Similarly, an emerging issue that could affect community characteristics is the decommission-
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

ing of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant and conversion of that site and the surrounding area. Issues

regarding development within the coastal zone, such

as development in the San Simeon area, will continue.

Incremental Impacts of Development of the 36

Undeveloped Leases (2002 to 2030):

New Activity from Existing Facilities.

Foreseeable activity from existing facilities includes:

• Exploratory drilling and possible development

of the Cavern Point Unit from Platform Gail.

• Development of the Tranquillion Ridge field

from Platform Irene.

• Development of the Rocky Point Unit and

Sword Unit from Hildago, Hermosa, and Harvest.

Development from existing facilities does not

appear to contribute to the magnitude of cumulative

impacts on community resources. Impacts from these

platforms occurred with original development. To the

extent that activity extends the use of the facility beyond that originally anticipated, the duration of the

cumulative impact will be longer. In the case of the

cumulative tourism impacts from Platforms Irene,

Hildago, Hermosa, and Harvest, these are currently

being mitigated by Coastal Resources Enhancement

Fund payments to Santa Barbara County. In addition, under current California law, the County will

realize a substantial portion of the State’s royalty

Tranquillion Ridge production.

Northern Santa Maria Basin

The remote locations of the three platforms in

the Northern Santa Maria Basin represent an extension of offshore platforms into an area that does not

currently have such structures. The adjacent onshore

area from the coastline to the Casmalia Hills is an

area that supports space launch operations at VAFB

and onshore production from the Casmalia oil field.

The potential onshore processing facility site in a canyon near Casmalia is proximate to a closed toxic substance landfill. The remoteness of the area, placement of the facility inland, and compatibility of the

potential development with land use in the area minimizes effects. The development of the northern Santa

Maria Basin should not interfere with the plans to

develop the area as a commercial spaceport nor interfere with ongoing military operations at VAFB and

its role as a social, cultural, and economic influence

on surrounding communities. As noted in the recreation and visual resources sections, Northern Santa

Maria Basin development project impacts will incrementally contribute to cumulative impacts from existing offshore oil and gas projects were found to be significant. These impacts are mitigated through payments to the Santa Barbara County Coastal Resources

Enhancement Fund.

As noted in the visual resources section, the

NSMB platforms will be visible from locations in

southern San Luis Obispo County. For some, this will

induce a locally unwanted land use, albeit one that is

distant and beyond the borders of the County. No

mechanism exists for San Luis Obispo County to receive proceeds from the Coastal Resources Enhancement Fund. Furthermore, in the past, the County

declined to participate in the Socioeconomic Monitoring and Mitigation Program, which resulted in mitigation of impacts in Santa Barbara and Ventura

County. However, the adaptability of Ventura and

Santa Barbara to offshore development may not be

generalized to San Luis Obispo County. As such, the

cumulative impacts to these communities from offshore development is negligible to low depending on

the degree to which the residents and visitors to the

community perceive the distant activity as a disruption and the adjustment that would need to be made.

Bonito Unit.

Because of its remote location and lack of onshore construction, the Bonito Unit development does

not appear to have a cumulative effect on community

and tourism values.

Gato Canyon Unit

Because of its proximity to existing development,

the capacity of Santa Barbara County government to

address development issues, and the area’s adaptability to the presence of onshore and offshore production, the Gato Canyon Unit does not appear to have a

cumulative effect on community and tourism values.

Oil Spills

For the purposes of accidents, researchers suggest that there are three periods of time that need to

be evaluated in determining impact (Deacon and

Kolstadt 2000).

1. Closure period when the beach is officially

closed for clean up.

2. Physically degraded period when the beach is

open but the experience is degraded because

there is still evidence of pollution.

3. Perceptually degraded period when the beach

is physically clean yet the memory of the accident is fresh enough that the quality of the

experience may be somewhat degraded.
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Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

Applying this framework to cumulative analysis, the third item most relevant for it examines the

cumulative impact analysis of people’s long-term perception of the community as opposed to a single-project

related event or tanker accident. An often-expressed

concern is the long-term effects of an oil spill on community character and tourism resources. For example,

Avila Beach experienced a small oil spill in 1992 and

underwent a major remediation in 2000 as a result of

operations from the tank farm. If a third spill imparts a reputation to the area as an oil-polluted area,

community and tourism impacts could be quite sizeable. In all likelihood, a 200-barrel spill from production would not be sizeable to produce this effect. However, a much larger spill on the order of 2,000 barrels

from a production accident or 22,800 barrels spill from

tankers could have that effect, especially for an area

for which the effects of spills have been newsworthy

and high profile. The effects of this could be more

pronounced if an area gains a reputation for a degraded

environment from a series of beach closures due to

other environmental conditions, such as sewage spills

or contaminated non point source pollution.

Summary and Conclusion (2002 to 2030):

• The greatest potential for effects to tourism

and community resources comes from introduction of offshore activities in areas that currently are not proximate to development. In

this case, proposed operations are far enough

removed not to induce effects to community

characteristics or tourism resources. Effects

would be negligible to low.

• In areas with development, effects will not be

of sufficient magnitude to affect community

resources or it occurs in areas not proximate

to tourism. Effects would be negligible to low.

• Cumulative impacts could result from oil spills.

These impacts are very location and specific

and would have the most effect for areas that

have experience recent, well-publicized incidents of environmental degradation. Effects in

this case could be low to high.

6.2.17 CUMULATIVE IMPACTS ON

EMPLOYMENT AND POPULATION

(2002-2030)

This section examines the cumulative impacts

to employment and population without the development of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030 and

the additional cumulative impacts to employment and

population from development of the 36 leases in the

period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to section 5.2.17 for a discussion of effects

from the proposed action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in section 5.2.17.

Cumulative impacts without the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The trend of declining employment in the oil and gas sector is expected

to continue through the period. Decommissioning

activities may cause a slight increase in certain specialized segments of the sector, but this will probably

only slow the decline, not reverse the trend. It is anticipated that overall employment and population will

continue to grow in the study area ameliorating any

job loss in offshore oil and gas related activities. Assuming labor participation rates remain constant

employment and populations are expected to increase

by more than 58% between 2000 and 2030.

Incremental impacts with the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Employment and population are expected to increase as result of development of the 36 undeveloped leases. The impact on

employment and population are anticipated to be similar to the levels of population and employment increases experienced during the construction of

Exxon’s Santa Ynez Unit project. At its peak level the

Santa Ynez Unit project directly employed approximately 1,200 workers (MMS 2000). Peak employment

effects from the Santa Ynez Unit project were estimated to be approximately 3,000 jobs accompanied by

peak a population impact of approximately 5,000

people. Tables 6.2.17-1 and 6.2.17-2 show the short

term and long term impact for development of the 36

undeveloped leases on employment and population.

The most significant distinction between the Santa

Ynez Unit and a likely northern Santa Barbara County

facility is the location. Since the most likely location

for a new facility is removed from the south coast of

Santa Barbara and Ventura County the likely areas

to be impacted by a new facility are southern San Luis

Obispo and northern Santa Barbara Counties. Because

of the concentration of the impacts to less densely and

urbanized area, the impacts from the development of

the 36 undeveloped lease is moderated in the short

term and low in the long term.

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030):

Short term impacts of employment and population

from development of the 36 undeveloped leases is

moderate, however, long-term impacts are low and not

significant.
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Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

Table 6.2.17-1. Short term change in population, employment, and housing from development of the 36

undeveloped leases.

Table 6.2.17-2. Long term change in population, employment, and housing from development of the

36 undeveloped leases.

 San Luis Obispo 

County 

Santa Barbara 

County 

Ventura 

County 

Total Study 

Area 

Direct Employment 420 660 120 1,200 

Indirect/Induced Employment 802 935 198 1,935 

Population 2,222 2,653 509 5,384 

Housing Demand 567 569 101 1237 

Percent Change in Demand 0.58% 0.39% 0.04% 0.25% 

Housing Percent of Annual Variation in Supply 61.42% 83.19% 4.56% 32.29% 

Population Percent of Annual Variation 2000-

2020 

32.31% 37.69% 4.47% 21.28% 

 San Luis Obispo 

County 

Santa Barbara 

County 

Ventura County Total Study 

Area 

Direct Employment 25 175 0 200 

Indirect/Induced Employment 48 248 0 296 

Population 132 704 0 836 

Housing Demand 34 151 0 185 

Percent Change in Demand 0.03% 0.10% 0.00% 0.04% 

Housing Percent of Annual Variation in Supply 3.66% 22.06% 0.00% 4.82% 

Population Percent of Annual Variation 2000-

2020 

1.92% 9.99% 0.00% 3.30% 

Population Change as percent of 2020 Total 0.03% 0.13% 0.00% 0.04% 
6-82

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

6.2.18 CUMULATIVE IMPACTS ON HOUSING

(2002-2030)

This section examines the cumulative impacts

on housing without the development of the 36 leases

in the period 2002 to 2030 and the additional cumulative impacts to housing from development of the 36

undeveloped leases in the period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to section 5.2.18 for a discussion of effects

from the proposed action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in section 5.2.18.

Cumulative impacts without the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Housing impacts from

existing offshore oil and gas development will continue

at the present level of 1,561 housing units occupied.

This level is approximately 0.32% of the total housing

in the tri-county area. Since population in the study

area is forecast to increase by more than 58 percent

between 2000 and 2030, the share of housing demand

associated with offshore oil and gas development will

likely decline.

Incremental Impacts of the Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): This

section examines the cumulative impacts to housing

with the development of the 36 leases in the period

2002 to 2030. Housing impacts are not expected from

the development of the Cavern Point and Rocky Point

Units. The construction of new platforms, pipelines,

and a new onshore facility in northern Santa Barbara

County will create both short term and long term

impacts on housing. The short term impacts on housing are anticipated to be similar to those that occurred

with the construction of the Santa Ynez Unit projects

the peak impact on housing from the Santa Ynez

project was 721 total housing units. Because of the

proposed location a new facility in northern Santa

Barbara County, it is likely that housing impacts will

be distributed in northern Santa Barbara County and

southern San Luis Obispo County. A short-term

change in housing requirement in San Luis Obispo

and Santa Barbara County is anticipated to be 61 percent and 83 percent of the annual variation in housing respectively. The short-term impact on housing

demand is high. The long-term impact on housing is

low from development of the undeveloped 36 leases.

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030):

Short-term impacts on housing from the development

of the 36 undeveloped leases are high. Tables 6.2.17-

1. and 6.2.17-2. show short-term and long-term impacts from the development of the 36 undeveloped

leases on housing.

6.2.19 CUMULATIVE IMPACTS ON

INFRASTRUCTURE (2002-2030)

This section examines the cumulative impacts

to community infrastructure without the development

of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030 and the

additional cumulative impacts to infrastructure from

development of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to

2030.

Refer to section 5.2.19 for a discussion of effects

from the proposed action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in section 5.2.19.

Cumulative impacts without the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Crew and supply boats

will continue to service the offshore oil and gas industry and existing onshore development will continue

at the present levels of activity. No other activities

that would impact infrastructure other than expected

variation in port operations have been identified.

Incremental Impacts of he Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Development of the Cavern Point and Rocky Point Units is

anticipated to cause an increase in the level of Crew

and Supply boat trips during drilling activities. The

level crew and supplies trips are expected to increase

by less than 3% of the total trips. Depending on the

quality of crude discovered in the northern Santa

Maria Basin trucks could be required to ship product

most likely in the form of asphalt from a proposed

northern Santa Barbara County processing facility.

Depending on the location of a new northern Santa

Barbara County facility, roads, highways, and rail lines

could be significantly impacted by the new facility.

There are forty-one weekly truck trips related to offshore oil and gas activities in the northern Santa Barbara County. In addition to offshore oil and gas related traffic, there are approximately 442 additional

weekly truck trips at the junction of Highway 1 and

Casmalia Road. The junctions of Highway 1 and

Casmalia Road would be impacted by a new facility if

the new facility is located at the preferred site identified in the Final North County Siting Study by Santa

Barbara County. If truck transport of asphalt is required from the construction of a northern Santa Barbara County processing facility there could be an increase in truck trips related to offshore oil and gas

development of more than 1,500 trips or 4,000 percent, the impacts from this change will be high. Table

6.2.19-1 shows the potential increase in truck traffic

resulting from a north county processing facility.

Rail transport of asphalt could replace all or part

of the transportation from the new processing facility. If rail transport replaced all truck transport of

asphalt, truck traffic would be reduced by 1,500 weekly
6-83

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

trips. Rail transport would increase by approximately

one 70-car unit train a day. Since there are no unit

trains transporting asphalt from northern Santa Barbara County the impact from the addition of one train

a day would be high. The COOGER Study (MMS 1999)

discusses transportation of Asphalt from a Northern

Santa Barbara County Facility.

In addition to the impacts on infrastructure a

new facility in northern Santa Barbara County will

also directly impact non-residential land use. A discussion of the impacts on non-residential land use can

be found is section 6.2.21.

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030): Impacts are expected to be low without the development

of the undeveloped 36 leases. Depending on the location of a new northern Santa Barbara County oil and

gas facility impacts on infrastructure could be high.

Table 6.2.19-1. Trucks for northern Santa Barbara County facility with and

without rail transport.

6.2.20 CUMULATIVE IMPACTS ON PUBLIC

FINANCE AND SERVICES (2002-2030)

This section examines the cumulative impacts

to on public finance and services without the development of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030 and

the additional cumulative impacts to public finance

and services from development of the 36 leases in the

period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to section 5.2.20 for a discussion of effects

from the proposed action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in section 5.2.20.

Cumulative impacts without the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The existing demand

for public and private services will continue to change

in variation with demographic and other factors not

related to offshore oil and gas or other identifiable

projects. Property taxes in Santa Barbara and Ventura

will continue to be enhanced by revenue generated by

offshore-related onshore development. As oil and gas

projects move from production to decommissioning,

valuation of the facilities for property taxes will decline. The fee-for-service arrangement for local agency

land use permitting and regulatory activities for offshore oil and gas projects is expected to continue.

Incremental impacts of the Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Development of the Cavern Point and Rocky Point Units

are anticipated to have little if any effect on onshore

property taxes and demand on services. The construction of new onshore processing facility in northern

Santa Barbara County and its related support facilities will likely increase the amount paid into the property tax fund. Additional demand for housing will

increase the price of housing and also result in additional property tax revenue. The short-term increase

in population and employment will also result in an

increase is demand for schools, hospitals and other

services. It is likely that the construction of a new

onshore facility in northern Santa Barbara County

will have impacts on public services similar to those

experienced during the construction phase of Exxon’s

Santa Ynez Unit project including the Las Flores Canyon onshore component. Past practice by Santa Barbara County required participation by offshore oil and

gas operators in the Socioeconomic Monitoring and

Mitigation Program (SEMP). The impacts from the

development of the 36 undeveloped leases may warrant establishing a similar program. Table 6.2.20-1.

Shows the percentage distribution of SEMP impact

mitigation payments for Santa Barbara and Ventura

Counties. Santa Barbara County and entities within

Santa Barbara County received payments in excess of

$7 million from 1985 to 1995. Ventura county entities received more than $3 million during the same

period.

 

Current 

Level 

 North 

County 

Facility 

Percent 

Change 

Rail Transport 

all Asphalt 

Percent 

Change 

Trucks by Product 

 Sulfur 6 14 233.3% 14 233.3% 

 LPG 35 145 414.3% 145 414.3% 

 Heavy Product Fraction 

(Asphalt) 

0 1500 N/A N/A N/A 

Total Product Trucks 41 1659 4046.8% 159 387.8% 

Total Trucks Casmalia 

Road and Hwy 1. 

483 1659 343.5% 159 32.9% 
6-84

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION (2002-2030):

Short-term impacts on public finance and services from population increases from the development

of the 36 leases could be high if a new northern Santa

Barbara County processing facility is constructed.

These impacts may warrant establishing a mitigation

program similar to the Socioeconomic Monitoring and

Mitigation Program.

Table 6.2.20-1. Distribution of SEMP impact mitigation payments.

 6.2.21 CUMULATIVE IMPACTS ON NONRESIDENTIAL LAND USE (2002-2030)

This section examines the cumulative impacts

to on non-residential land use without the development of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030 and

the additional cumulative impacts to non-residential

land use from development of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to section 5.2.21 for a discussion of effects

from the Proposed Action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in section 5.2.21.

Cumulative impacts without the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Existing onshore facilities are expected to continue substantially as they

are. No changes in the onshore support facilities are

expected. Land uses supporting offshore oil and gas

will continue as long as oil production is possible. As

part of decommissioning, the land use designation of

former on-shore processing facilities may change in

accordance with local land use plans and practices.

Incremental Impacts of the Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The

Cavern Point and Rocky Point Unit developments are

not expected to have an impact on non-residential land

uses. The development of a new processing facility in

northern Santa Barbara County and new pipeline and

power cable landfalls and rights-of-ways will have a

varying impact depending on the routes selected and

the location of the new facility. If new pipelines and

power cables can be routed in existing rights-of ways

the impact will be low. Since a new processing facility

is required in the northern Santa Barbara County the

location of the facility will determine if the impacts

are moderate or high. If the facility is situated on

land already used for oil and gas related activities the

impacts on non-residential land use will be moderate.

In the “final North County Facility Siting Study”

Santa Barbara County identifies the sites described

as Casmalia East or Casmalia West as strongly preferred locations for any new onshore facility in support of offshore oil and gas development. The location of a new facility at either location is likely to result in a moderate impact on non-residential land use.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION (2002-2030):

Without development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, existing facilities will continue to operate under their current land use designations. Development

of the 36 undeveloped leases will require a new onshore processing facility, which may result in a moderate impact.

Functional Category/County Santa Barbara County Ventura County 

Housing 69% 0% 

School Facilities 11% 4% 

Water Supply and Treatment 10% 8% 

Public Services 9% 88% 

Campgrounds 1% 0% 
6-85

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

6.2.22 CUMULATIVE COMMERCIAL

FISHING AND KELP HARVEST

IMPACTS (2002-2030)

This section examines:

• the cumulative impacts to commercial fishing

and kelp harvest without the development of

the 36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030;

• the additional cumulative impacts to commercial fishing and kelp harvest from development

of the 36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.22.2 for a discussion of effects from the proposed action for the time period 2002

to 2006. The significance criteria for the following

analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period 2002 to 2006 presented in Section 5.2.22.

There are no scheduled or anticipated oil and

gas lease sales in Federal waters of the Pacific OCS or

in State waters. Thus, no additional production platforms are expected to be installed on the Pacific OCS

after the development of the current active leases and

the 36 undeveloped leases.

CUMULATIVE IMPACTS (2002-2030)

Section 5.2.22.2 discusses the major impact

agents associated with past, present, and foreseeable

offshore oil and gas activities, including the proposed

activities, that may produce impacts during 2002-2006,

the expected duration of the proposed exploration activities. These include routine on-going and proposed

oil and gas activities in Federal and State waters that

may cause space-use or preclusion conflicts, and accidental or upset conditions (oil spills or hydrogen sulfide gas releases). Alaskan and foreign-import

tankering, dredging and discharge of dredged material, aquaculture, coastal development, agriculture

runoff, and commercial and recreational fishing also

add to the cumulative impacts on commercial fishing

through adverse effects on marine fish resources.

These impacts are discussed more thoroughly in section 5.2.6. Other, non-OCS sources of impacts to commercial fishermen, both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic, are also discussed.

CUMULATIVE IMPACTS WITHOUT

DEVELOPMENT OF THE 36 UNDEVELOPED

LEASES (2002-2030):

The projects discussed in this section include

past, present, and foreseeable actions that may produce impacts during 2002-2030, the period during

which development of the 36 undeveloped leases would

likely occur (section 5.0). Most of the major impact

agents are those discussed in section 5.2.22.2 (and

treated briefly below). Potential cumulative impacts

are discussed below.

Oil and Gas Activities. Section 5.2.22.2 describes

the routine offshore oil and gas activities that may

result in cumulative impacts to commercial fishing.

These include geophysical surveys, construction, drilling and production activities with associated support

activities, and the abandonment, or decommissioning,

of wells and offshore facilities. As discussed in section 5.2.22.2, the major impact agents expected from

these proposed activities are space-use and preclusion.

The potential use of explosives in the abandonment

of wells and offshore platforms also raises the possibility of lethal impacts to fish resources. Upset conditions such as oil spills may also impact commercial

fishing.

Geophysical Surveys. As discussed in section

5.2.22.2, no seismic surveys have been proposed for

the Pacific OCS or State waters in the near future

and none are currently foreseen for the period 2002-

2025.

Construction. Section 5.2.22.2 discusses the

potential cumulative impacts to commercial fishing

from construction activities, including the installation

of platform jackets and topsides, the laying of pipelines, platform hook-up and commissioning, and the

initiation of drilling. Currently, no oil and gas lease

sales are scheduled or anticipated in Federal or State

waters off California. Therefore, without development

of the 36 undeveloped leases, it is assumed no new

production platforms or pipelines would be installed

during the period 2002-2025.

Development and Production. Section 5.2.22.2

discusses the potential cumulative impacts to commercial fishing from offshore development and production activities in the Pacific OCS Region. Table 5.1.2.2-

1 in section 5.1.2 shows the number of wells expected

to be drilled from existing production platforms. Currently, it is expected that 25 new wells will be drilled

from OCS platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel

and Santa Maria Basin. Production activities are expected to continue on all existing, active platforms

until decommissioning (see section on Offshore Facilities Decommissioning, below). As discussed in earlier, potential impacts to commercial fishermen from

these activities are expected to be restricted to shortterm preclusion and space-use conflicts due to vessel

traffic and routine maintenance and repairs of platforms and pipeline facilities.

Offshore Facility Decommissioning. Section

5.2.22.2 discusses the potential cumulative impacts

to commercial fishermen from offshore facility decommissioning activities, including the removal of wells,

platforms, and associated pipelines. Table 4.0.1-6 presents estimated removal dates for existing oil and gas

structures offshore southern California. It is expected
6-86

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

that no OCS platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel

or Santa Maria Basin will be removed before 2012,

and a few may be in place as late as 2025 (or 2035, in

the case of Platform Irene if the Tranquillon Ridge

development occurs).

The principal potential impacts would be similar to those expected to occur as the result of construction activities, i.e., short-term preclusion and

space-use conflicts. Some long-term impacts to commercial trawlers may occur due to anchor scars and

debris left on the sea floor. Section 5.2.6.2 analyzes

the impacts of explosive removals on fish resources.

Oil Spills. As discussed in section 5.0, the cumulative oil spill risk for the project area results from

several sources: ongoing and projected oil and gas production from existing OCS facilities in the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Maria Basin, several proposed

exploration and development projects on the Federal

OCS, ongoing production from one facility in State

waters in the Santa Barbara Channel, two likely oil

and gas projects in State waters, and the tankering of

Alaskan and foreign-import oil through area waters.

Table 5.1-1 present the estimated mean number of

spills of various sizes and the probability of their occurrence as a result of the described activities.

The probability of one or more oil spills in the

50-1,000-bbl range occurring from existing and proposed offshore oil and gas activities over the period

2002-2030 is 73.9 percent (table 5.1-1). The probability that one or more oil spills in the 2,000 bbl range

will occur from these activities is 59.1 percent (table

5.1-1). The risk of a major tanker spill in the range of

23,000 bbl during this period is estimated to 90.5 percent (table 5.1-1).

The level of impacts from such spills will depend

on many factors, including the type, rate, and volume

of oil spilled and the weather and oceanographic conditions at the time of the spill. These parameters

would determine the quantity of oil that is dispersed

into the water column; the degree of weathering,

evaporation, and dispersion of the oil before it contacts a shoreline; the actual amount, concentration,

and composition of the oil at the time of shoreline or

habitat contact; and a measure of the toxicity of the

oil.

The impacts to commercial fishing and fish resources from any oil spills occurring during this period would be similar to those described in sections

5.2.22.2.1 and 5.2.6.2.1 for the 200- and 2000-bbl spills

assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil and gas

activities, and for the assumed 23,000-bbl tanker spill.

Military Activities. It is assumed that military

activities in the project area will continue at or near

the levels described in section 5.2.24 during the period 2002-2030. Thus, the impacts to commercial fishing associated with these activities would also be expected to continue.

INCREMENTAL IMPACTS OF

DEVELOPMENT OF THE 36 UNDEVELOPED

LEASES (2002-2030):

Development of the 36 undeveloped leases would

involve a number of oil and gas activities in addition

to those described earlier in this section. As described

in section 5.0, it is assumed that 4-5 platforms and

associated pipelines and cables would be built: 2-3 in

the northern Santa Maria Basin leases, 1 in the Bonito Unit, and 1 in the Gato Canyon Unit (figures

6.1.3-1, 6.1.3-2, and 6.1.3-3). The major portion of

the offshore construction expected during the period

2007-2009, beginning with the Gato Canyon Unit, then

shifting to the leases located in the Santa Maria Basin. Platform installation is estimated to take approximately 3-6 months, depending on water depth; pipeline and cable installation are estimated to take about

3 months and 4 months, respectively.

Impacts on commercial fishing in the project area

from these activities are expected to cause low to moderate impacts, as discussed in section 5.2.22.2. The

impacts would be mostly due to loss of fishing grounds

to platforms and pipelines, which would be onsite for

approximately 25 years. In an area such as the Gato

Canyon Unit or the southern portion of the Bonito

Unit where the drift gillnet fishery is active, moderate impacts would be expected due to the preclusion

from a large area upcurrent of the platform. Furthermore, fishing grounds of the Santa Maria Basin have

been fragmented by the laying of fiber optic cables

making it difficult to sustain a prolonged tow through

the fishing grounds. The emplacement of platforms

and associated pipelines would further fragment the

fishing grounds and could lead to moderate impacts

on the commercial trawl fleet of the SMB. The increase in boat traffic to any new platforms on the SMB

would likely lead to conflicts with the crab trap fishermen of the area.

The other routine activities associated with development of the 36 undeveloped leases, including

drilling, production, and vessel and helicopter support

traffic, are expected to result in minor space-use and

preclusion conflicts to commercial fishermen, as discussed in section 5.2.22.1, throughout the period 2007-

2030. Once production begins, support traffic is expected to remain at levels typical for ongoing offshore

oil and gas activities in the Santa Maria Basin (table

4.0.1-6).

Decommissioning of the 4-5 platforms assumed

to be built for development of the 36 undeveloped

leases would be expected to result in space-use and

preclusion conflicts with commercial fishermen during the removal of platform structures and pipelines.
6-87

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

If all 36 leases are developed, under the most

likely development scenario the probability of one or

more spills 200 bbl or less in size occurring is 98.8

percent (table 5.1-1). The probability that one or more

spills in the 2,000-bbl range will occur from these activities under the most likely development scenario is

53.9 percent.

Impacts to commercial fishing from any oil spills

occurring as a result of the development of the 36

undeveloped leases would be similar to those described

above for the 200- and 2,000-bbl spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil and gas activities and for

the assumed 22,800-bbl tanker spill.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS (2002-2030):

Some routine offshore oil and gas activities, including construction and drilling, would likely be

heaviest during the years 2007-2012; much of this

activity would be related to the development of the 36

undeveloped leases. Construction activities would

occur in the Santa Maria Basin and, to a lesser extent, the western Santa Barbara Channel. Decommissioning of existing offshore oil and gas facilities

will begin in the eastern Channel about 2012 and shift

westward over a period of years. Thus, there will be

periods of intense activity occurring in different parts

of the project area at various times. Throughout these

periods, routine activities such as production and vessel and helicopter support traffic will continue.

Overall, the impacts to commercial fishing in the

project area from routine offshore oil and gas activities, primarily space-use and preclusion, will increase

over present levels. However, the areas covered by

these activities will be small relative to the available

commercial fishing grounds, and the periods of disturbance will be localized. Unless several such projects

were to overlap in time and space during peak fishing

seasons, cumulative impacts to commercial fishing

would be unlikely. However, if 4-5 platforms are placed

in the SMB and SBC along with associated pipelines,

fishermen, especially trawlers, would experience moderate impacts due to loss of fishing grounds. Increased

vessel traffic would lead to conflicts with the trap fishermen of the area. Cumulative impacts to commercial fishing from all the routine oil and gas activities

assumed to take place between 2002 and 2030, including those associated with the development of the 36

undeveloped leases, are expected to be moderate.

Accidental oil spills present an ongoing source

of potential impacts to commercial fishing. The cumulative risk of oil spills arises from multiple sources,

including offshore oil and gas activities in Federal and

State waters and both Alaskan and foreign-import

tankering. The greatest oil spill risk to the commercial fishing industry in the project area results from

tankering operations. This risk is tempered by recently implemented or proposed mitigation (such as

the rerouting of tankers farther offshore along the

central California coast) and, as discussed in section

5.0, by modern oil spill response capabilities.

Without development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, the probabilities that one or more oil spills will

occur during the period 2002-2030 from existing OCS

oil and gas activities are 94.9 percent for a spill of 200

bbl or less and 41.2 percent for a spill of 2,000 bbl.

Under the most likely scenario for development of the

36 undeveloped leases, these probabilities are 98.8

percent and 53.9 percent, respectively. Thus, the potential for an oil spill occurring from development of

the 36 undeveloped leases represents a measurable

incremental increase to the overall cumulative oil spill

risk for the commercial fishing industry.

Impacts to commercial fishing from the oil spills

assumed to occur in the project area during the period 2002-2030 could range from low to moderate,

depending on location, season, and a number of other

factors. The most sensitive areas, from a commercial

fishing perspective, would be near a harbor, resulting

in closure.

6.2.23 CUMULATIVE MARINE

RECREATIONAL FISHING IMPACTS

(2002-2030)

This section examines:

• the cumulative impacts to marine recreational

fishing without the development of the 36

leases in the period 2002 to 2030;

• the additional cumulative impacts to marine

recreational fishing from development of the

36 leases in the period 2002 to 2030.

Refer to Section 5.2.23 for a discussion of effects

from the proposed action for the time period 2002 to

2006. The significance criteria for the following analysis are the same as the criteria for the time period

2002 to 2006 presented in Section 5.2.6.

Cumulative Impacts without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases: We discussed above

the major impact agents associated with routine past,

present, and foreseeable offshore oil and gas activities, including the proposed activities, that may produce impacts during 2002-2006, the expected duration of the proposed exploration activities. These include routine on-going and proposed oil and gas activities in Federal and State waters that may cause

space-use or preclusion conflicts. Alaskan and foreign-import tankering, oil spills, dredging and discharge of dredged material, aquaculture, coastal development, agriculture runoff, and commercial and

recreational fishing also add to the cumulative impacts
6-88

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

on marine recreational fishing through adverse effects

on marine fish resources. These impacts are discussed

more thoroughly in section 5.2.6. Other, non-OCS

sources of impacts to recreational fishermen, both

anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic, are also discussed.

The projects discussed in this section include

past, present, and foreseeable actions that may produce impacts during 2002-2025, the period during

which development of the 36 undeveloped leases would

likely occur (section 5.0). Most of the major impact

agents are those discussed above (and treated briefly

below). Potential cumulative impacts are discussed

below.

Offshore Oil and Gas Activities. Section 5.2.23.2

discusses the routine offshore oil and gas activities

that may result in cumulative impacts to the marine

recreational fishing industry. These include geophysical surveys, construction, drilling and production activities with associated support activities, and the

abandonment, or decommissioning, of wells and offshore facilities. As discussed above, the major impact

agents expected from these proposed activities are

space-use and preclusion. The potential use of explosives in the abandonment of wells and offshore platforms also raises the possibility of lethal impacts to

fish resources, discussed in section 5.2.6.

Geophysical Surveys. As discussed above, no

seismic surveys have been proposed for the Pacific OCS

or State waters in the near future and none are currently foreseen for the period 2002-2030.

Construction. The potential cumulative impacts

to commercial fishing from construction activities,

including the installation of platform jackets and

topsides, the laying of pipelines, platform hook-up and

commissioning, and the initiation of drilling were discussed above. Currently, no oil and gas lease sales are

scheduled or anticipated in Federal or State waters

off California. Therefore, without development of the

36 undeveloped leases, it is assumed no new production platforms or pipelines would be installed during

the period 2002-2030.

Development and Production. Table 5.1.2.2-1

in section 5.0 shows the number of wells expected to

be drilled from existing production platforms. Currently, it is expected that 25 new wells will be drilled

from OCS platforms in the Santa Barbara Channel

and Santa Maria Basin. Production activities are expected to continue on all existing, active platforms

until decommissioning (see section on Offshore Facilities Decommissioning, below). As discussed above,

potential impacts to sport fishermen from these activities are expected to be restricted to short-term

preclusion and space-use conflicts due to vessel traffic and routine maintenance and repairs of platforms

and pipeline facilities.

Offshore Facility Decommissioning. Table 4.0.1-

6 presents estimated removal dates for existing oil and

gas structures offshore southern California. It is expected that no OCS platforms in the Santa Barbara

Channel or Santa Maria Basin will be removed before

2012, and a few may be in place as late as 2025 (or

2035, in the case of Platform Irene if the Tranquillon

Ridge development occurs).

The principal potential impacts would be similar to those expected to occur as the result of construction activities, i.e., short-term preclusion and

space-use conflicts. These sites would also be lost as

potential fishing areas. Section 5.2.6 analyzes the

impacts of explosive removals on fish resources.

Oil Spills. As discussed in section 5.0, the cumulative oil spill risk for the project area results from

several sources: ongoing and projected oil and gas production from existing OCS facilities in the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Maria Basin, several proposed

exploration and development projects on the Federal

OCS, ongoing production from one facility in State

waters in the Santa Barbara Channel, two likely oil

and gas projects in State waters, and the tankering of

Alaskan and foreign-import oil through area waters.

Table 5.1-1 present the estimated mean number of

spills of various sizes and the probability of their occurrence as a result of the described activities.

The most likely scenario is that one or more oil

spills in the 50-1,000-bbl range would occur from offshore oil and gas activities over the period 2002-2030,

and that such a spill would be 200 bbl or less in volume. The probability that one or more spills this size

would occur during this period is 73.9 percent (table

5.1-1). The maximum reasonably foreseeable oil spill

volume from offshore oil and gas activities is 2,000

bbl, assumed for purposes of analysis to be a pipeline

spill. The probability of a spill this size occurring between 2002-2030 is 59.1 percent (table 5.1-1). Based

on data from tanker spills in U.S. waters, the mean

size for a tanker spill is assumed to be 22,800 bbl (probability of occurrence is 90.5 percent).

Impacts to marine recreational fishing from any

oil spills occurring during this period would be similar to those described in section 5.2.23.2 for the 200-

and 2,000-bbl oil spills assumed to occur as a result of

offshore oil and gas activities and for the assumed

22,800-bbl tanker spill.

Other Activities. Section 5.2.23.2 discusses the

potential impacts to marine recreational fishing from

other human-related activities. It is assumed that

these activities will continue to contribute to the overall impacts on recreational fishing. However, as concern for marine fish resources gains the attention of

the public, new legislation and regulations will likely

be imposed that could adversely affect the charter boat

and rental boat fleets at local harbors. The signifi-
6-89

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

cance of area and fishery closures is difficult to predict, however it seems likely that some charter boat

owners will go out of business as a result of fishery

closures.

Incremental Impacts of Development of the

36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): Development

of the 36 undeveloped leases would involve a number

of oil and gas activities in addition to those described

earlier in this section. As described in section 5.0, it

is assumed that 4-5 platforms and associated pipelines

and cables would be built: 2-3 in the northern Santa

Maria Basin leases, 1 in the Bonito Unit, and 1 in the

Gato Canyon Unit (figures 6.1.3-1, 6.1.3-2, and 6.1.3-

3). The major portion of the offshore construction

expected during the period 2007-2009, beginning with

the Gato Canyon Unit, then shifting to the leases located in the Santa Maria Basin. Platform installation

is estimated to take approximately 3-6 months, depending on water depth; pipeline and cable installation are

estimated to take about 3 months and 4 months, respectively.

Impacts on recreational fishing in the project

area from these activities are expected to cause low

impacts, as discussed in section 5.2.23.2.

The other routine activities associated with development of the 36 undeveloped leases, including

drilling, production, and vessel and helicopter support

traffic, are expected to result in minor space-use and

preclusion conflicts to recreational fishermen throughout the period 2007-2030. Once production begins,

support traffic is expected to remain at levels typical

for ongoing offshore oil and gas activities in the Santa

Maria Basin (table 4.0.1-6).

If all 36 leases are developed, under the most

likely development scenario the probability of one or

more spills 200 bbl or less in size occurring is 98.8

percent (section 5.1, table 5.1-1). The probability that

one or more spills in the 2,000-bbl range will occur

from these activities under the most likely development scenario is 53.9 percent.

Impacts to recreational fishing from any oil spills

occurring as a result of the development of the 36

undeveloped leases would be similar to those described

above for the 200- and 2,000-bbl spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil and gas activities and for

the assumed 22,800-bbl tanker spill.

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030):

Some routine offshore oil and gas activities, including

construction and drilling, would likely be heaviest

during the years 2007-2012; much of this activity

would be related to the development of the 36 undeveloped leases. Construction activities would occur

in the Santa Maria Basin and, to a lesser extent, the

western Santa Barbara Channel. Decommissioning

of existing offshore oil and gas facilities will begin in

the eastern Channel about 2012 and shift westward

over a period of years. Thus, there will be periods of

intense activity occurring in different parts of the

project area at various times. Throughout these periods, routine activities such as production and vessel

and helicopter support traffic will continue.

Overall, the impacts to the recreational fishing

industry in the project area from routine offshore oil

and gas activities, primarily space-use and preclusion,

will amount to a negligible increase over present levels. The areas covered by these activities will be small

relative to the available fishing grounds, and the periods of disturbance will be localized. Cumulative impacts to marine recreational fishing from all the routine oil and gas activities assumed to take place between 2002 and 2030, including those associated with

the development of the 36 undeveloped leases, are

expected to be low.

Accidental oil spills present an ongoing source

of potential impacts to the recreational fishing industry. The cumulative risk of oil spills arises from multiple sources, including offshore oil and gas activities

in Federal and State waters and both Alaskan and foreign-import tankering. The greatest oil spill risk to

the recreational fishing industry in the project area

results from tankering operations. This risk is tempered by recently implemented or proposed mitigation (such as the rerouting of tankers farther offshore

along the central California coast) and, as discussed

in section 5.0, by modern oil spill response capabilities.

Without development of the 36 undeveloped

leases, the probabilities that one or more oil spills will

occur during the period 2002-2030 from existing OCS

oil and gas activities are 73.9 percent for a spill of 200

bbl or less and 59.1 percent for a spill of 2,000 bbl.

Under the most likely scenario for development of the

36 undeveloped leases, these probabilities are 98.8

percent and 53.9 percent, respectively. Thus, the potential for an oil spill occurring from development of

the 36 undeveloped leases represents a measurable

incremental increase to the overall cumulative oil spill

risk for the recreational fishing industry.

Impacts to recreational fishing from the oil spills

assumed to occur in the project area during the period 2002-2030 could range from low to medium, depending on location, season, and a number of other

factors. The most sensitive areas, from a fishing perspective, would be near a harbor, resulting in closure.
6-90

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

6.2.24 CUMULATIVE MILITARY

OPERATIONS IMPACTS (2002-2030)

This section examines cumulative impacts to

military operations without development of the 36

undeveloped leases in the period 2002-2030, and the

additional cumulative impacts to military operations

from development of the 36 leases during that period.

Refer to section 5.2.24 for a discussion of effects from

the Proposed Action for the time period 2002-2006.

The significance criteria for the following analysis are

the same as the criteria for the time period 2002 to

2006 presented in 5.2.24.

Cumulative Impacts Without Development

of the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The

following text briefly describes routine and non-routine oil and gas activities that may result in cumulative impacts during the period 2002-2030 without development of the 36 undeveloped leases. The activities include geological and geophysical surveys, exploration drilling, platform construction, development

and production, decommissioning, and oil spills. Potential cumulative impacts are also discussed.

Geological and Geophysical Surveys: As discussed in Section 5.2.24.2.1, no seismic surveys have

been proposed for existing OCS and State Tidelands

leases. Currently, no oil and gas lease sales are scheduled or anticipated on the Pacific OCS or State Tidelands. Therefore, without exploration and development of the 36 undeveloped leases, future geological

and geophysical surveys are likely to be limited to periodic side-scan sonar surveys of pipelines and shortduration geo-hazard surveys covering relatively-small

geographic areas.

Exploration Drilling: Section 4.0 discusses exploration activities and provides a historical overview

of exploration activity on the Pacific OCS. No exploratory wells have been drilled on the Pacific OCS since

1989 and no additional exploration on the developed

leases is expected. Therefore, without exploration and

development of the 36 undeveloped leases, no further

exploration drilling activity is expected over the 2002-

2030 period.

Platform Construction: Section 4.0 discusses

platform construction activities and provides a historical overview of platform construction on the Pacific OCS and in State waters. Currently, no oil and

gas lease sales are scheduled or anticipated on the

Pacific OCS or State waters. Therefore, without development of the 36 undeveloped leases, no new production platforms are likely to be installed during the

period 2002-2030.

Development and Production: Section 4.0 discusses development and production activities. Currently, about two development wells per month are

being drilled from OCS platforms. Therefore, without development of the 36 undeveloped leases, the

number of development wells drilled from existing OCS

platforms is expected to remain at this level or decrease

during the period 2002-2030.

Decommissioning: Section 4.0 describes how oil

and gas platforms are decommissioned. Section 4.0

also presents an estimated decommissioning schedule for existing oil and gas structures offshore southern California. Three of the existing platforms (Harvest, Hermosa, Hidalgo) located in Military Warning

Area W-532 are projected to be decommissioned between 2015-2020. The fourth platform (Irene) is projected to be decommissioned during 2020-2025 but

decommissioning could be delayed to 2030-2035 if development of the Tranquillon Ridge Field by extended

reach drilling is successful.

Oil Spills: Section 5.0 describes the cumulative

oil spill risk for the project area. Section 5.0 describes

the estimated mean number of spills of various sizes

and the probability of their occurrence as a result of

the described activities. The probability of one or more

spills 200 bbl or less in size occurring from existing

and proposed offshore oil and gas activities during the

period 2002-2030 is 73 percent. The probability that

one or more spills in the 2,000-bbl range will occur

from these activities is 59.1 percent. The risk of a

tanker spill (22,800 bbl) during this period is estimated to be 90.5 percent.

Impacts to military operations from any oil spills

occurring during this period would be similar to those

described in Sections 5.2.24.2.1 for the 200 bbl and

2,000 bbl spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil and gas activities, and for the assumed 22,800

bbl tanker spill.

Incremental Impacts of Development of

the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030): The oil

and gas activities likely to have a cumulative impact

on military operations during 2002-2030 are MODU

drilling activities, platform construction, development

and production, decommissioning, and oil spill cleanup

operations. The activities create the potential for

space-use conflicts with military operations and hazards to personnel. The cumulative impacts of offshore oil and gas activities and oil spills on military

operations conducted in Military Warning Area W-532

are discussed below.

Space-Use Conflicts and Hazards to Personnel:

Sections 5.2.24.1 and 5.2.24.2 describe oil and gas activities and associated vessel and aircraft traffic in

Military Warning Area W-532. The following text briefly

describes the temporal relationships of the activities

and how the level of aircraft and vessel traffic would

likely change over the 2002-2030 period. The incremental impacts resulting from oil spills are also discussed.

Currently, about 8-12 supply boat trips and 150

helicopter trips are made monthly to the four existing OCS platforms (Irene, Harvest, Hermosa, Hidalgo)
6-91

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

located in the Military Warning Area W-532. During

MODU drilling operations in 2002-2003, the number

of supply boat trips will temporarily increase from 8-

12 per month to 20-25 per month. The number of helicopter trips will temporarily increase from its current level of 150 per month to 170-180 per month during the MODU drilling period. Additionally, fluid produced during drill-stem tests for each MODU well will

be barged to Long Beach or Port Hueneme at the end

of each testing period. A total of 4-10 such trips are

estimated to occur during the drilling period.

As was discussed in Section 5.2.24.2, two new

development projects have been proposed from existing OCS platforms in Military Warning Area W-532.

Arguello Inc. is proposing to drill up to 20 extended

reach wells into undeveloped leases in the Rocky Point

Unit from Platforms Harvest, Hermosa, and Hidalgo.

Nuevo Energy Company is proposing to drill up to 30

extended reach wells into the Tranquillon Ridge (State

Tidelands) from Platform Irene. The projects will not

create any additional space use conflicts with military

operations because drilling will be conducted from

existing platforms. Consequently, there will not be

any appreciable increase in the existing level of aircraft and vessel traffic to the platforms as a result of

the development projects.

If the proposed MODU drilling activity is successful, it is projected that up to five new platforms

would be constructed on the OCS between 2007-2008.

Four of the platforms would be constructed in the

Point Sal, Purisima Point, and Bonito Units, which

are located in Military Warning Area W-532. The development scenario also envisions the construction of

a new onshore facility in northern Santa Barbara

County (Casmailia) to serve the three new platforms

in the northern Santa Maria Basin. It is estimated

that it will take approximately 3-6 months to install a

platform and 3-4 months to install pipelines and power

cables. The level of supply boat and helicopter traffic

in Military Warning Area W-532 is estimated to increase 25-50 percent above its current level during

the peak construction period.

After construction of the platforms is completed,

the level of vessel and aircraft traffic in Military Warning Area W-532 is expected to increase 100 percent

over its current level as the number of platforms increase from four to eight. This level of activity will

continue during the 2008-2015 period when all 8 platforms are expected to be operating. The level of vessel and aircraft activity is expected to return to its

current level after Platforms Harvest, Hermosa,

Hidalgo, and possibly Irene are decommissioned between 2015-2020. During decommissioning operations, the level of vessel and aircraft traffic in Military Warning Area W-532 is estimated to increase 25-

50 percent above its current level during the peak dismantling period. The time required to decommission

a platform is estimated to range from 60-90 days. After

decommissioning operations have been completed, the

level of vessel and aircraft activity would return to its

current level and remain at that level until the four

new platforms in Military Warning Area W-532 are

decommissioned between 2025-2030.

The effect of oil spills on military operations will

depend on many factors, including the type, rate, and

volume of oil spilled, and the weather and oceanographic conditions at the time of the spill. The probability of one or more spills 200 bbl or less in size occurring from existing and proposed offshore oil and

gas activities is 73.9 percent. The probability that one

or more spills in the 2,000 bbl-range will occur from

these activities is 59.1 percent. The risk of a major

tanker spill (22,800 bbl) during this period is estimated

to be 90.5 percent.

Impacts to military operations from oil spills

occurring during this period would be similar to those

described in Section 5.2.24.2.1 for the 200- and 2,000-

bbl spills assumed to occur as a result of offshore oil

and gas activities and for the assumed 22,800 bbl

tanker spill.

Summary and Conclusion (2002-2030): The conclusion in this section applies to all of the units where

MODU drilling is proposed. Most of the southern

California OCS is used intensively for various military activities, the exception being most of the Santa

Barbara Channel. Offshore oil and gas activities have

the potential to impact military activities because of

space-use conflicts resulting from additional aircraft

and vessel traffic, the placement of permanent or semipermanent drilling and production structures and

activities resulting from them, and activities stemming

from cleanup efforts of oil spills. As oil and gas activities are expanded in southern California, the potential for additional space use conflicts is created with

the military as operations increase in the Point Mugu

Sea Range. As a result of the MODU drilling activity,

it is estimated that as many as five new platforms

would be installed on the Pacific OCS. Four of the

platforms would be located in Military Warming Area

W-532.

During the more than 15-year operational history of oil and gas platforms in Military Warning Area

W-532, no military operations have been delayed, canceled, or relocated due to routine offshore oil and gas

activity. In addition, there have been no accidents

(vessel/aircraft collisions, deaths, or serious injuries)

involving oil and gas activities and military operations

in the Point Mugu Sea Use Range since the initiation

of exploration and development activities more than

30 years ago. As described earlier in this section, the

existing military lease stipulations have been very effective in avoiding conflicts between oil and gas and

military operations. The potential cumulative impact
6-92

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

of routine oil and gas activities on military operations

is therefore considered low based upon the significance

criteria used in this analysis.

For non-routine operations, such as oil spill

clean-up activities, oil and gas activities have the potential to disrupt military operations, particularly if

spills occur in a Military Warning Area or drift into a

Military Warning Area due to wind and current movements. As described in Section 5.2.24.2.1, small spills

of 200 barrels or less would have a low impact on military operations. Moderate spills (2,000 bbl), depending on their location and timing, would have a low to

moderate impact on military operations. Large tanker

spills (22,800 bbl), particularly if they were to occur

in the Point Mugu Sea Range, would have a moderate

impact on military operations. Overall, the cumulative impact on military operations from all activities

is expected to be moderate.

6.3 ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF THE

HIGH CASE SCENARIO

This section describes the potential offshore activities, and disturbances associated with the much

more unlikely (high case) estimate of resources that

could be developed. This high case assumes that the 3

platforms with 60 well slot size projected for the development in the Santa Maria Basin would remain

the same as in the Base Case. It differs in that a

slightly larger number of wells are assumed (a total

increase of 18 wells) and it assumes that the drilling

program, production methods, and well recoveries will

all be more successful than expected for the base case.

Table 6.3-1 presents a comparison of the resources

and the associated disturbances projected for the most

likely scenario and the high case scenario for the 36

undeveloped leases.

Although this increase in resources and associated activities could potentially affect the biological,

physical, and socioeconomic resources of the cumulative activity area, the increase would be limited to an

increase in oil and gas production in the Santa Maria

Basin area. No additional platforms or pipelines are

assumed. Estimates for the Bonito Unit and Gato

Canyon Unit would remain the same as the base case.

The additional resource recovery would slightly

increase the risk of an oil spill and there would be an

increase in the volume of muds and cuttings. Oil spills

and the impacts were already discussed in the base

case scenario. The risk would increase slightly but

the impacts remain the same for all resources. Increased muds and cuttings would add to the effects

described for the base case however they would not

change the impact levels projected for the base case.
6-93

Cumulative Impact Analysis for the 36 Undeveloped Leases (2002-2030)

Table 6.3-1. Comparison of base case and high case hypothetical scenario for the 36

undeveloped leases.

 Base Case High Case Increase 

Santa Maria North 

Oil Reserves 

Gas reserves 

Oil recovery/well 

Producing wells 

Peak oil year 

Peak gas year 

Platforms 

Well slots 

Muds 

Cuttings 

115 MMbbl 

47 BCF 

2.5 MMbbl 

45 

year 7 

year 7 

1 

60 

602,800 BBL 

144,600 BBL 

146 MMbbl 

56.5 BCF 

2.8 MMbbl 

52 

year 7 

year 7 

1 

60 

759,000 BBL 

182,100 BBL 

31 MMbbl 

9.5 BCF 

.3 MMbbl 

7 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

156,200 BBL 

37,500 BBL

Santa Maria Central 

Oil Reserves 

Gas reserves 

Oil recovery/well 

Producing wells 

Peak oil year 

Peak gas year 

Platforms 

Well slots 

Muds 

Cuttings 

118 MMbbl 

24 BCF 

2.5 MMbbl 

49 

year 8 

year 8 

1 

60 

650,000 BBL 

155,925 BBL 

159 MMbbl 

32 BCF 

3 MMbbl 

53 

year 8 

year 8 

1 

60 

697,300 BBL 

167,300 BBL 

41 MMbbl 

8 BCF 

.5 MMbbl 

4 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

47,300 BBL 

11,375 BBL 

Santa Maria South 

Oil Reserves 

Gas reserves 

Oil recovery/well 

Producing wells 

Peak oil year 

Peak gas year 

Platforms 

Well slots 

Muds 

Cuttings 

90 MMbbl 

18 BCF 

2.1 MMbbl 

46 

year 8 

year 8 

1 

60 

658,000 BBL 

158,000 BBL 

120 MMbbl 

24 BCF 

2.4 MMbbl 

50 

year 8 

year 8 

1 

60 

708,600 BBL 

170,200 BBL 

30 MMbbl 

6 BCF 

.3 MMbbl 

4 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

50,600 BBL 

12,200 BBL 

Bonito Unit 

Oil Reserves 

Gas reserves 

Oil recovery/well 

Producing wells 

Peak oil year 

Peak gas year 

Platforms 

Well slots 

Muds 

Cuttings 

68 MMbbl 

34 BCF 

3.2 MMbbl 

21 

year 5 

year 5 

1 

36 

342,000 BBL 

82,000 BBL 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

Gato Canyon Unit 

Oil Reserves 

Gas reserves 

Oil recovery/well 

Producing wells 

Peak oil year 

Peak gas year 

Platforms 

Well slots 

Muds 

Cuttings 

77 MMbbl 

46 BCF 

4 MMbbl 

20 

year 5 

year 5 

1 

28 

193,000 BBL 

68,000 BBL 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 
6-94

Delineation Drilling Activities Offshore Santa Barbara County

Table 6.3-1. Comparison of base case and high case hypothetical scenario for the 36

undeveloped leases (continued).

g

Rocky Point Unit 

Oil Reserves 

Gas reserves 

Oil recovery/well 

Producing wells 

Peak oil year 

Peak gas year 

Platforms 

Well slots 

Muds 

Cuttings 

39 MMbbl 

11.7 BCF 

2.8 MMbbl 

14 

year 4 

year 4 

Existing (Platform Harvest, Hermosa and Hidalgo) 

NA 

265,000 BBL 

62,500 BBL 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

Cavern Point Unit 

Oil Reserves 

Gas reserves 

Oil recovery/well 

Producing wells 

Peak oil year 

Peak gas year 

Platforms 

Well slots 

Muds 

Cuttings 

22 MMbbl 

20 BCF 

2.2 MMbbl 

10 

year 3 

year 3 

Existing (Platform Gail) 

NA 

38,700 BBL 

45,300 BBL 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

Sword Unit 

Oil Reserves 

Gas reserves 

Oil recovery/well 

Producing wells 

Peak oil year 

Peak gas year 

Platforms 

Well slots 

Muds 

Cuttings 

29 MMbbl 

7.3 BCF 

2.9 MMbbl 

10 

year 4 

year 4 

Existing (Platform Hermosa) 

NA 

213,000 BBL 

50,400 BBL 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc 

nc