The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S.

Department of Justice and prepared the following final report:

Document Title: Three Strikes and You’re Out: The

Implementation and Impart of Strike Laws

Author(s): James Austin Ph.D. ; John Clark ; Patricia

Hardyman Ph.D. ; D. Alan Henry

Document No.: 181297

Date Received: March 6, 2000

Award Number: 96-CE-VX-0009

This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice.

To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this Federallyfunded grant final report available electronically in addition to

traditional paper copies.

Opinions or points of view expressed are those

of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect

the official position or policies of the U.S.

Department of Justice.
“THREE STRIKES AND YOU’RE OUT” 

THE IMPLEMENTATION AND IMPACT OF STRIKE LAWS 

Submitted by 

James Austin, Ph.D. 

John Clark 

Patricia Hardyman, Ph.D. 

D. Alan Henry 

... -,, . . ’, ... b ;. .., 1. - ..., 

This project was supported by Grant No. 96-CE-VX-0009 awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice 

Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Points of view in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily 

represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. 

U.S. Department of Justice.

of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report
Abstract 

Over the past few years 24 states and Congress have passed legislation under the slogan of 

“Three Strikes and You’re Out.” As part of the general political thrust to mandate increasingly 

tougher prison terms for repeat offenders, this form of legislation seeks to ensure that habitual 

offenders receive the toughest sentence available to the state absent the death penalty - life 

imprisonment without the possibility of parole. 

This report reviews the impact these laws have had on crime and the criminal justice system. 

Surprisingly, with the noted exception of California, there has been virtually no impact on the 

courts, local jails or state prisons. Nor does there appear to be an impact on crime rates. Even in 

California where the law was expected to have a major impact it appears that all of the 

projections were in error. 

The report proffers that this form of legislation was carefully crafted to be largely symbolic. 

However, the gross errors in predicting the impact of these and other laws by some of the most 

prestigious researchers underscore how little we know about change within the criminal justice 

system. The common theme that emerges from this report is that the impact of three strikes has 

been less than anticipated, as the courts, and in particular the prosecutors, have taken steps to 

minimize the potential effects of the new laws. 

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Table of Contents 

CHAPTER 1 THE THREE STRIKES AND YOU’RE OUT MOVEMENT ....... -1- 

CHAPTER 2 THE VARIOUS FORMS OF THREE STRIKES LEGISLATION ... -5- 

CHAPTER 3 A CLOSER LOOK AT THE THREE STRIKES LAWS IN 

WASHENGTON. CALIFORNIA. AND GEORGIA .............. -15- 

CHAPTER 4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ............................. -23- 

CHAPTER 5 IMPACT ON THE COURTS ............................... -32- 

CHAPTER 6 THE IMPACT ON LOCAL JAILS ........................... -65- 

CHAPTER 7 IMPACT ON STATE PRISON SYSTEMS .................... -77- 

CHAPTER 8 IMPACT ON CRIME RATES .............................. -98- 

.. 

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List of Tables 

TABLE 1 

Variations in State Strikeable Laws .............................................. -9- 

TABLE 2 

Comparison of New Strike Laws with Pre-Existing Sentencing Provision ................ 12- 

TABLE 3 

Washington, California, and Georgia Strikeable Offenses ........................... -22- 

TABLE 4 

Los Angeles Strike Sample ................................................... -26- 

TABLE 5 

Sample Selection of Cases with Strike Charges ................................... -29- 

TABLE 6 

Georgia Counties’ Strike Sample. .............................................. -29- 

TABLE 7 

Felony Jury Trials In Superior Court ........................................... -37- 

TABLE 8 

Comparison of Selected Counties on use of Second and Third Strikes as of May 31, 1997 .. .-39- 

TABLE 9 

Superior Court Felony Case Filings Kern, San Francisco, and Los Angeles .............. -40- 

TABLE 10 

Superior Court Jury Trials San Francisco, Kern, and Los Angeles ..................... -41- 

TABLE 11 

Court Dispositions of Felony Cases Filed as Two and Three Strike Cases in Kern County .. .-45- 

TABLE 12 

.Pre-Trial Release and Bail Amounts (Los Angeles County) ........................ -49- 

TABLE 13 

Municipal Court Dispositions Los Angeles County ................................ -50- 

TABLE 14 

Adjudication Type and Time Till Adjudications 1992 and 1994 Cohorts. ............... .-52- 

... 

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TABLE 15 

First and Second Strike Cases to Total Felony Filings in the Three Georgia Counties ...... .-60- 

TABLE 16 

First Strike Offenses by Charge in the Three Georgia Counties ...................... .-61- 

TABLE 17 

Number and Percent of Defendants Charges with a First Strike ....................... -62- 

TABLE 18 

Reason for Detention of the First Strike Cases in the Three Georgia Counties ........... .-62- 

TABLE 19 

Court Dispositions of One and Two Strike Cases in the Three Georgia Counties. ......... -63- 

TABLE 20 

Time to Adjudication in the Three Georgia Counties ............................... .-64- 

TABLE 21 

Average Daily Population of Unsentenced Inmates in California Jails 1986-1 998 ........ -68- 

TABLE 22 

Average Length of Stay in California Jails in Days. ............................... -71- 

TABLE 23 

Comparison of Los Angeles County Jail Bookings ................................ -72- 

TABLE 24 

Average Length of Stay in the Los Angeles County Jail by Status ..................... -72- 

TABLE 25 

California Prison Population Projections 1994-1 998 ............................... -80- 

TABLE 26 

Number of Second and Third Strike Cases Admitted to.CDC By Month ............... -8 1- 

TABLE 27 

Comparison of Washington, California, and Georgia Prison Admissions ............... -84- 

TABLE 28 

Type of Crime for California Two and Three Strikers Admitted to Prison ............... -85- 

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TABLE 29 

Comparison of Striker and Non-Striker Inmates Admittcd to the California Prison System . -87- 

TABLE 30 

Classification Attributes of Second and Third Strikers .............................. -88- 

TABLE 3 1 

Selccted Descriptions of the Current Offenses by Third Strikers ...................... -90- 

TABLE 32 

Escape and Serious Incident Reports 1990-1 998 ................................... -94- 

f 

TABLE 33 

California Correctional Costs for Strikers ‘and Non-Strikers 1996 ..................... -97- 

TABLE 34 

Violent and Property Crime Rates by State 1990-1996 ............................. -107- 

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CHAPTER 1 

THE THREE STRIKES AND YOU’RE OUT MOVEMENT 

In 1993, an initiative was placed on the ballot in the state of Washington to require a term 

of life imprisonment without the possibility of parole for persons convicted for a third time of 

certain specified violent or serious felonies. This action was fueled by the tragic death of Diane 

Ballasiotes, who was murdered by a convicted rapist who had been released from prison. Shortly 

thereafter, Polly Klass was kidnaped and murdered by a California-released inmate, who also had 

an extensive prior record of violence. The rallying cry of “three-strikes-and-you’re-out” caught 

on, not only with Washington and California voters, who passed their ballot measures by wide 

margins, but with legislatures and the public throughout the country. By 1997,24 other states 

and the Federal government enacted laws using the “three-strikes-and-you’re-out” phrase. In 

1994, President Clinton received a long-standing ovation in his State of the Union speech when 

he endorsed three strikes as a federal sentencing policy.’ 

The three strikes movement is the most recent anti-crime policy to sweep the United 

States. Such reforms have included the Scared Straight Shock Incarceration programs in the 

1970’s, boot camps, mandatory minimum sentencing for certain crimes (e.g., use of a gun, sell of 

drugs), and truth in sentencing2 These often short-lived campaigns have widespread appeal to a 

disenchanted public who, through the media, have perceived the criminal justice system as 

‘Gest, Ted (1994, February 7). Reaching for a new fix to an old problem. US. News & WorldReport. p.9. 

’Surette, Ray (1 996). News from nowhere, policy to follow: Media and the social construction of “three 

strikes and you’re out”. In David Shichor and Dale K. Sechrest (Eds.), Three strikes undyou ’re out: Vengeance us 

public policy. Thousand Oaks, Ca: Sage Publications. 

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overly lenient and incapable of protecting them fiom violent offenders. Highly publicized cases, 

where the courts or correctional officials have allowed violent and habitual offenders to be 

released from prison only to commit yet another violent crime, have fueled the public’s appetite 

for harsher sentencing policies to correct a criminal justice system run amok. 

The theoretical justification for such policies, and in particular, three strikes and you’re 

out, is grounded in the punitive ideologies of deterrence, incapacitation, and/or just deserts. 

General deterrence is achieved by delivering swift, certain, and severe punishment (life 

imprisonment without parole) to habitual offenders in order to suppress the criminal tendencies 

of potential habitual criminals. 

imprisonment, the offender would weigh the consequences of committing another offense or live 

a crime free life to avoid such punishment. In order for this sequence of events to occur, two 

critical conditions must exist: (1) offenders must be well informed of the new sentencing policy; 

and (2) they must believe there is a high probability of arrest and conviction should one’s 

criminal activities persist. 

Knowing that the next conviction will result in life 

Incapacitation effects may be realized by accurately targeting habitual or career offenders 

who are unamenable to deterrence and rehabilitation, and must be permanently separated from 

society. This perspective was popularized by RAND’S research in the 1970’s and 1980’s on 

habitual offenders. Peter Greenwood and Joan Petersilia were early advocates of sentencing 

For a summary of this literature, see Gibbs, J.P. (1975). Crime, punishment, and deterrence. New York: 3 

Elsevier, and, Zimring, F.E.., and Hawkins, G.J. (1973). Deterrence: The feguf threat in crime control. Chicago: 

Chicago University Press. 

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reforms that would isolate and incapacitate habitual offenders: This perspective assumed that 

(1) the courts could readily identify the so called “career offender” and (2) the offender’s career 

will continue unabated over time. 

Both assumptions have been widely criticized. Previous studies have documented that 

the courts and social scientists have not yet been able to accurately identify the so-called rate 

offender without also punishing an equal or higher number of “false positives”. In Fact, 

Greenwood’s own, but less publicized research discredited his claim that career offenders can be 

identified or that they even exist. Second, reforms such as “three strikes” run counter to 

knowledge that criminals’ careers are strongly impacted by age. As noted by the national panel 

on Criminal Careers: 

From the perspective of incapacitation, prison capacity is used inefficiently if offenders 

are imprisoned beyond the time their criminal activity would have terminated if they were 

free on the street. Therefore, it is reasonable to ask whether “habitual-offender “laws, 

which mandate very long sentences, may result in incarceration of offenders well after 

they ceased to be serious risks (Blumstein et al., 1986, p.15)’ 

’ 

It should be added, here, that incapacitation effects of a three strikes law on crime rates 

must be viewed as long term if the goal is simply to extend incarceration. Assuming a portion of 

the targeted offenders are already being incarcerated, the added benefits are not realized until the 

offender’s “normal” release date has been extended. For example, if the targeted group already 

serves 10 years, the crime reduction effects will not occur for 10 years &er the bill’s passage. 

4Petersilia, J., Greenwood, P.W., and Lavin, M. (1978). Criminal careers of habitual felons. Washington, 

DC: National Institute of Law Enforcement and Criminal Justice, and, Greenwood, P.W., with Abrahamse, A. 

( 1982). Selective incapacitation. (Report prepared for the National Institute of Justice), Santa Monica, CA:RAND. 

’Blumstein, A., Cohen, J., Roth, J.A. and Visher, C. (Eds.). (1986). Criminal careers and “cureer 

criminals. ” Washington, DC: National Academy Press. 

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The last possible justification for this policy is consistent with wide public and political 

appeal -- punishment or just deserts. As Shichor and Sechrest noted (1996), three strikes and 

you’re out, in its purest form, is “vengeance as public policy.” This ideology requires no 

empirical validation or justification. As Greenwood and his RAND colleagues (the same 

scholars who had advocated selective incapacitation as a viable sentencing policy), note in their 

analysis of the California three strikes law: 

It is the “right thing to do.” Aside from the savings and other effects, justice demands 

that those who repeatedly cause injury and loss to others have their fieedom revoked. 

(Greenwood et al., 1996). 

This paper examines this highly popular movement on three fronts. First, a review of the 

various three strikes laws passed by the states since 1993 is presented. Second, a close 

examination of the three strikes laws in California, Washington, and Georgia is presented. 

Lastly, a review of the impact of the three strike legislation on the courts, local jails, state prison 

systems, and the crime rates will be presented. This analysis will show, among other things, that 

only California passed a three strikes law that was designed to have a substantial impact on the 

criminal justice process. 

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CHAPTER 2 

THE VARIOUS FORMS OF THREE STRIKES LEGISLATION 

I. Diversity Among the States 

As of 1996,24 states and Congress had adopted some form of three strikes legislation. 

Table 1 summarizes the key provisions of these laws based on a national assessment completed 

in 1996. Although there are variations among the states in how they decided the rules of the 

three strikes laws, there are some common themes. 

First, in terms of what constitutes a strike, the vast majority of states include on their list 

of “strikeable” offenses violent felonies such as murder, rape, robbery, arson, and assaults. Some 

states have included other nonviolent charges, such as: 

0 the sale of drugs in Indiana; 

any drug offense punishable by imprisonment for more than five years in 

the sale of drugs to minors, burglary, and weapons possession in California; 

embezzlement and bribery in South Carolina. 

Louisiana; 

0 

0 escape in Florida; 

0 treason in Washington; and 

0 

There are also variations in the number of strikes needed to be out, with two strikes 

bringing about some sentence enhancement in eight states.’ California’s law is unique in that it 

allows for any felony to be counted if the offender has a prior initial conviction for its list of 

strikeable crimes. 

The laws also differ regarding the length of imprisonment that is imposed when the 

6John Clark, James Austin, and D. Alan Henry, “Three Strikes and You’re Out: A Review of State 

Legislation,” Research in Brief, U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice, September 1997. 

’The eight states are Arkansas, California, Georgia, Kansas, Montana, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and 

Tennessee. 

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offender “strikes out,” although most are designed to incapacitate the offender for long periods of 

time. For example, mandatory life sentences with no possibility of parole are imposed when 

“out” in Georgia, Montana, Tennessee, Louisiana, South Carolina, Indiana, New Jersey, North 

Carolina, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.’ In California, Colorado, and New Mexico 

parole is possible after an offender is “out,” but only after a significant period of incarceration. 

In New Mexico, such offenders are not eligible for parole until after serving 30 years, while 

those in Colorado must serve 40 years before parole can be considered. In California, a 

minimum of 25 years must be served before parole eligibility. 

i 

Connecticut, Kansas, Arkansas, and Nevada have recently enacted laws enhancing the 

possible penalties for multiple convictions for specified serious felonies but leave the actual 

sentence to the discretion of the court. Several states, Florida, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, 

Utah, and Vermont, provide ranges of sentences for repeat offenders that can extend up to life 

when certain violent offenses are involved. 

11. Comparison of the New Laws with Pre-Existing Sentencing Provisions 

To understand the potential symbolic nature of these laws, one must consider how each 

state sentenced repeat violent offenders prior to the enactment of three strikes. In other words, 

did the new legislation successhlly close a loophole in the state’s criminal sanctioning authority 

as hoped, or was the new law in effect targeting a population already covered by existing laws? 

In general, it was the latter condition that existed in all of the states. As shown in Table 

Virginia law does provide for the release of prisoners 65 years of age and older who have served a 

specified period of imprisonment, and a North Carolina law, separate from the three strikes statute, entitles those 

sentenced to life without parole to a review of their sentences after serving 25 years. 

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2, provisions were already in place to enhance penalties for repeat offenders in all 24 of the three 

strike states before the passage of the latest three-strike legislation. In four of these states, 

Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Maryland the mandatory penalty for a person found to 

be a repeat violent offender - life in prison without the possibility of parole - already existed 

and remained unchanged, but the definition of such an offender was expanded under the new 

legislation. 

The definition of a repeat offender was expanded in two additional states, with the 

penalties remaining the same (Vermont and North Dakota). In at least one state the definition of 

a repeat violent offender remained essentially the same (third conviction for a violent offense), 

but the punishment was enhanced. Virginia moved from providing no parole eligibility for those 

convicted of three separate violent felonies, no matter the sentence, to mandating life sentences 

with no parole eligibility for this group. In some states, the changes involved both, expanding the 

definitions of repeat violent offenders, and enhancing the sentences. For example, the habitual 

offender statute in effect in California prior to the enactment of the three strikes law mandated a 

sentence of life imprisonment with first parole eligibility after 20 years for persons convicted for 

the third time of a listed violent offense where separate prison terms were served for the first two 

convictions. It also provided that upon the fourth conviction for such a felony in which three 

separate prison terms had been served, the offender was to be sentenced to life without parole. 

In summary, from a national perspective the “three strikes and you’re out” movement was 

largely symbolic. It was not designed to have a significant impact on the criminal justice system. 

The laws were crafted so that in order to be “struck out” an offender would have to be convicted 

two or more, often three times for very serious, but rarely committed crimes. Most states knew 

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that very few offenders have more than two prior convictions for these types of crimes. More 

significantly, all of the states had existing provisions which allowed the courts to sentence these 

types of offenders for very lengthy prison terms. Consequently, the vast majority of the targeted 

offender population was already serving long prison terms for these types of crimes. From this 

perspective the three strikes law movement is much to ado aboutnothing-and is having virtually 

no impact on current sentencing practices. For example, in Washington, the state that started the 

three strikes movement, only 1 15 offenders were admitted to the Washington State prison system 

on their third strike since 1993. 

been sentenced under the three strikes law as of 1998. In Georgia, a two-strike state, Fulton 

County (Atlanta) reports that less than 10 cases are being prosecuted under the new law per 

year.'" The only noted exception to the national trend is California which has sentenced nearly 

40,000 offenders to prison under its three strikes law. 

The Federal Bureau of Prisons reports that no inmates have 

The remainder of this report, focuses on the three states of Washington, California and 

Georgia. Each state has approached the three strikes reform using very different statutory 

provisions. By implementing very different forms of three strikes legislation each of these states 

has had very different results, in terms of the impact on the courts, local corrections, state 

corrections and public safety. However, one common theme that will emerge throughout the 

entire report is that the impact has been less than anticipated, as the courts, and in particular, the 

prosecutors, have taken steps to minimize the potential effects of the new laws. 

~~ 

'Washington Department of Corrections. 

lo Austin, J., Clark, J., Henry, D.A., and Hardyman, P. (Forthcoming). The Impact of Three Strikes and 

You're Out in Three States. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice. 

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TABLE 1 

Any felony if two prior felony convictions 

from list of strikeable offenses. 

Any Class 1 or 2 felony, or any Class 3 

felony that is violent. 

Murder, attempt murder assault with intent 

to kill, manslaughter, arson. kidnaping 

aggravated sexual assault, robbery first 

degree assault. 

VARIATIONS IN STATE STRIKE LAWS 

Three Mandatory indeterminate life 

sentence, with no parole eligibility 

for 25 years. 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility for 40 years. 

Up to life in prison. 

Three 

Three 

I 

Murder, kidnaping, robbery, rape, terrorist 

act. 

Any felony against a person. 

First degree battery, firing a gun from a 

vehicle, use of a prohibited weapon, 

conspiracy to commit: murder; kidnaping: 

robbery: rape; first degree battery; first 

degree sexual abuse. 

Three Court may triple term specified in 

sentencing guidelines. 

Two 

Three 

Not less than 40 years in prison; no 

parole. 

Range of no parole sentences, 

depending on the offense. 

Any felony if one prior felony 

conviction from a list of strikeable offenses 

(See Table 3). 

Two Mandatory sentence of twice the 

term for the offense involved. 

Any forcible felony, aggravated stalking, 

aggravated child abuse, lewd or indecent 

conduct escape. 

Three Life if third strike involved first 

degree felony, 30-30 years if second 

degree felony, 10-15 years if third 

degree felony. 

Murder, armed robbery, kidnaping, rape. 

aggravated child molesting, aggravated 

sodomy, aggravated sexual battery. 

Any felony. 

Murder, rape, sexual battery with a 

weapon, child molesting, arson. robbery. 

burglary with a weapon or resulting in 

serious injury, drug dealing. 

Any felony against a person. 

Two 

Four 

Three 

Two 

Mandatory life without parole. I 

Mandatory maximum sentence for 

the charge. 

Mandatory life without the 

possibility of parole. 

Court may double term specified in 

sentencing guidelines. 

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Table 1 continued ... 

Murder, attempted murder, manslaughter, 

rape, armed robbery, kidnaping, any drug 

offense punishable by more than five years, 

any felony punishable by more than 12 

years. 

Any four felony convictions if at least one 

was on the above list. 

Murder, rape, robbery, first or second 

degree sexual offense, arson, burglq, 

kidnaping, car jacking, manslaughter, use 

of a firearm in felony, assault with intent to 

murder, rape, rob, or commit sexual 

offense. 

Deliberate homicide, aggravated kidnaping, 

sexual intercourse without consent, ritual 

abuse of a minor. 

Mitigated deliberate homicide, aggravated 

assault, kidnaping, robbery. 

Murder, robbery, kidnaping, battery, abuse 

of children, arson, home invasion. 

Murder, robbery, car-jacking. 

Murder, shooting at or from a vehicle and 

causing harm, kidnaping, criminal sexual 

penetration, armed robbery resulting in 

harm. 

47 violent felonies; separate indictment 

required finding that offender is "violent 

habitual offender." 

Any Class A, R, or C felony 

Murder, voluntary manslaughter, rape, 

involuntary deviate sexual intercourse, 

mon, kidnaping, robbery, aggravated 

lssault 

Same offenses. 

Three 

Four 

Four, with separate 

prison terms served 

for first three strikes. 

Two 

Three 

Three 

Three 

Three 

Three 

Two 

Two 

Three 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

Life without parole: with parole 

possible after 10 years; or 25 years 

with parole possible after 10 years. 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

Mandatory life in prison with parole 

eligibility after 30 years. 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

If second strike was for Class A 

felony, court may impose an 

extended sentence of up to life: if 

Class B felony, up to 20 years; If 

Class C felony, up to 10 years. 

Enhanced scntence of up to IO 

years. 

Enhanced sentence of up to 25 

years. 

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Table 1 continued ... 

Two, if prison term 

served for first strike. 

Three, if separate 

prison terms served. 

south 

Carolina 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility for first two 

strikes. 

Murder, voluntary manslaughter, homicide 

by child abuse, rape, kidnaping, armed 

robbery, drug Wicking, embezzlement, 

bribery, certain accessory and attempt 

offenses. 

Three 

Tennessee 

Court may sentence from five years 

up to life. 

Murder, especially aggravated kidnaping, 

especially aggravated robbery, aggravated 

rape, rape of a child, aggravated arson. 

~~ - 

VirginiJ 

Washington 

Wisconsin 

Same as above, plus rape, and aggravated 

sexual battery. 

~ 

Murder, kidnaping, robbery, car jacking, 

srxual aswult, conspiracy to commit any of 

above 

Charges listed in Table 3 

Murdrr, manslaughter, vehicular homicide, 

aggravated battery, abuse of children, 

rohhery, sexual assault, taking hostages, 

kidnaping. arson, burglary 

II Utah I Any first or second degree felony. 

Vermont Murder, manslaughter, arson causing death, 

assault and robbery with weapon or causing 

bodily injury, aggravated assault, 

kidnaping, maiming, aggravated sexual 

assault, aggravated domestic assault, lewd 

conduct with child. 

Two Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

Three I Court may sentence up to life in 

Three Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

Mandatory life in prison with no I parole eligibility. 

Three 

Three Mandatory life in prison with no 

parole eligibility. 

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TABLE 2 

Range of no parolc sentences starting at 40 ycars 

for second conviction for specified violent 

fclonics: no parole sentcnccs for third conviction 

for other specified felonies. 

COMPARISON OF NEW STRIKE LAWS 

WITH PRE-EXISTING SENTENCING PROVISION 

Arkansas 1995 

1995 

1994 

~ ~ ~~~~~~ 

Upon fourth felony conviction, 

offcndcr must scrvc maximum time 

imposed, and not be eligible for 

parole until maximum sentence scrvc 

Habitual offcndcr law requiring 

enhanced sentencing upon third 

fclony conviction. 

Extended prison tcrms for rcpcat 

offenders, broken down by 

scriousncss of ncw conviction and 

number of prior convictions. 

K<XKlls 

L o II I s i ana 

California 

Colorado 

Allows court to doublc scntcncing guidclincs for 

sccond and third convictions for mmy “person 

felon ics”. 

Mandatory lifc nithout parolc for third spccificd 

fclony conviction or for fourth conviction for 

spccificd fclonics. 

Mandatory doublin: of sentence for any felony 

if one prior serious or violent felony conviction; 

mandatory life for any third felony if two prior 

serious or violent felony convictions. 

Mandatory life in prison with no parole 

eligibility for 40 years for third conviction for 

Class 1 or 2 fclony or Class 3 felony that is 

violent. 

1994 

Life with no parole eligibility before 

20 years for third violcnt fclony 

conviction where separate prison terr 

wcre scrvcd for the first two 

convictions; life without parole for 

fourth violcnt felony conviction. 

Mandatory tripling of presumptivc 

sentence for third conviction for any 

Class 1, 2,3, 4, or 5 fclony. 

Connecticut 

Florida 

Up to life in prison for third conviction for many 

violent offcnses. 

Added new category of “violent career criminal” 

to existing Habitual Offcndcr statutc; for third 

conviction for specified violent offense, life if 

first dcgrcc felony, 30-40 years if sccond dcgrcc 

felony. IO- 15 years for third degree felony. 

1994 

1995 

Upon second violent felony 

conviction in which pcriod of 

imprisonment was served for the 

first, court could scntencc as Class A 

felony . 

Categories of habitual felony 

offcndcr, and habitual violent 

offender: range of enhanced 

scntcnccs. 

Georgia Mandatory life without parole for second 

spccificd violcnt fclony conviction. 

Indiana 

~ ~~ 

Mandatory lifc without parolc for third spccificd 

violent felony conviction. 

1991 No provisions for cnhancing 

sentences on guidelines for repeat 

offcndcrs 

1994 Samc law, cxccpt that for fourth fclor 

conviction, at lrast two of the 

convictions must have been among 

listed violent or drug offenses. 

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-ElI 566 

5661 

SG61 

I 

1 566 

I t66 

I P66 

I 566 

I 

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Table 2 continued ... 

Second and third degree felonies sentenced as 

first degree felons, and first degree felons not 

eligible for probation if have two prior 

convictions for any felonies and a present 

convjction for a violent felony. 

Up to life with no probation eligibility or 

suspended sentence and no early release for third 

conviction for violent crimes; up to life for 

fourth felony conviction of any kind. 

1995 

1995 

Mandatory life without parole upon third 1994 

conviction for specified violent felonies. 

Mandatory life without parole upon third 

conviction for specified violent felonies. 

1993 

Mandatory life without parole upon third 

conviction for specified serious offenses. 

1994 

I 

Sccond and third degree felonics 

receive enhanced sentence of five 

years to life if have two prior 

convictions at least as severe as secor 

degree felonies. 

Up to life for fourth fclony convictior 

No parole eligibility if convicted of 

three specified violent felonies 

separate violent felonies or drug 

distribution charges. 

Number of prior convictions factored 

into Offender Score on state’s 

Sentencing Guidelines. 

For repeat felony offenders, up to ten 

years can he added to sentences of ter 

years or more: six years can be added 

to sentences ofone to ten years. 

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CHAPTER3 I 

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE THREE STRIKES LAWS IN WASHINGTON, 

CALIFORNIA, AND GEORGIA 

I. Introduction 

As suggested above, just what constitutes the legislative game of “three strikes and you’re 

‘ out” varies dramatically from state to state. While most of the states have adopted what must be 

viewed as symbolic laws, in that they were never designed to alter traditional sentencing 

practices, a handful have implemented laws which were intended to change sentencing practices 

in a meaningful and punitive manner. In this chapter, we examine in greater detail the laws 

adopted by three states (California, Georgia, and Washington). Washington state, which 

pioneered the three strikes movement, represents most states, in that its law produced a rather 

narrow strike zone which required three strikes. The other two states either broaden the strike 

zone (California) and/or lowered the threshold to a two-strike criteria. Table 3 summarizes the 

strikeable offenses for each of these states. California has the greatest number of possible strikes 

whereas Washington state and Georgia’s list is far more limited. However, there are other 

provisions associated with each law that have important consequences on how each law was 

implemented. 

11. The Traditional Three Strikes Law - Washington State 

Officially entitled the “Persistent Offender Accountability Act,”” the Washington strike 

law requires that any person convicted for the third time of an offense listed in Table 3 is to 

receive a mandatory sentence of life in prison without the possibility of parole. 

“Revised Code of Washington 59.94A. 

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Since only a small percentage of offenders are likely to have three convictions involving 

the strikeable offenses, these offenders would have received substantial sentences under preexisting repeat offender sentencing laws. Thus, the impact of the law has been barely felt at the 

state and local levels. Only 97 third strikers were sentenced to mandatory life terms in the first 

three-and-one-half years since the law was in effect. 

Despite its limited use, the strike laws have been challenged in court on several grounds. 

In a trio of cases, the Washington Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the law, 

rejecting claims that it violated the “separation of powers” by removing discretion from 

prosecutors and judges, that it constituted cruel and unusual punishment by mandating life 

sentences with no possibility of parole, and that it violated equal protection and due process 

provisions of the state and federal constitutions.’* 

111. Widening the Strike Zone and Lowering the Count to Two Strikes -- California 

There are two, nearly identical versions of the California strike law. The first, found in 

the California Penal Code §667(b)-(j), was passed by the legislature and signed into law by the 

governor on March 7,1994. The second, found in Penal Code $1 170.12, was enacted by voters 

as Proposition 184 on November 8, 1994. 

The legislative history of this bill requires some elaboration. The legislative version of 

the law was initially introduced in the California legislature on March 1, 1993, but no action was 

taken on the bill during the 1993 session. Meanwhile, after adjournment of the 1993 legislative 

session, a petition began to circulate among voters to include a proposition on the November 

1994 ballot that would, by voter initiative, enact the three strikes law. While the petition was 

“State 1’. Thorne, Wash SupCt, NO. 634 13- I ; State v. Manussier, Wash SupCt, No. 6 1906-9; and State v. 

Rivers, Wash SupCt, No. 63412-2. 

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circulating, a three-strike bill was reintroduced in the 1994 legislative session. This was done in 

an attempt to circumvent the voters’ initiative which was seen as more difficult to amend if 

passed. Under California law, voter initiatives can only be amended by a vote of the electorate or 

by two-thirds vote of each house of the legislature. 

By the time the bill had passed, enough signatures had been collected to qualify 

Proposition I84 for the November ballot. The only difference between the two versions of the 

law was that the voter initiative did not state explicitly, as does the legislature’s version, that 

juvenile adjudications and out-of-state prior convictions are to be counted as strikes. 

Two provisions in the California law13 make it one of the most severe in the country. 

First, the law provides for a greatly expanded “strike zone,” or charges that constitute a strike. 

The strike zone for the first two strikes, listed in Table 1, is similar to that in other states - 

serious and violent felonies. The third strike in California, however, is any felony - a provision 

found in no other state’s strike laws. Persons with two or more convictions for qualifying 

offenses, who are convicted of a third felony, of any kind are to be sentenced to an indeterminate 

term of life in prison. The minimum term is calculated as the greater of: (1) three times the term 

otherwise provided for the current conviction; (2) 25 years; or (3) the term provided by law for 

the current charge plus any applicable sentence enhancements. l4 

’3Unless specific reference is being made to the legislative version of the law or the voter initiative version, 

any discussion of the law is meant to apply to the provisions that both versions share. 

“California law provides for several sentence enhancements, based on either the circumstances of the 

offense or the offender’s prior criminal record. For example, any person convicted of a serious felony who has 

prior convictions for serious felonies is to receive a five-year sentence enhancement for each such prior conviction. 

This enhancement is added on after the strike sentence has been calculated, and must be served consecutively. 

California Penal Code §667(a). 

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Second, the California law contains a two-strike penalty in which a person convicted of 

any felony who has one prior conviction for a strikeable offense is to be sentenced to double the 

term provided for the offense, and must serve at least 80 percent of the sentence before being 

released from prison. Under California’s criminal code, non-strike inmates typically serve less 

than half their sentence. Only six other states have two strikes provisions, all of which limit the 

offenses that trigger a strike penalty to those that are serious or violent.” 

The intent of the legislature in enacting the law is stated explicitly in the statute that its 

purpose is “to ensure longer prison sentences and greater punishment for those who commit a 

felony and have been previously convicted of serious and/or violent felony offenses.”16 The law 

was designed to limit the discretion of system officials by prohibiting plea bargaix~ing.’~ Also, if 

the offender is to be sentenced as a second or third striker, the law mandates that the court may 

not grant probation, suspend the sentence, place the offender on diversion, or commit the 

offender to any facility other than a state prison.’’ 

Even with these explicitly stated limitations on discretion, the law conveys a great deal of 

authority to the prosecutor to determine the ultimate sentence that the offender will receive if 

convicted. While the law requires that the prosecution provide evidence of each prior conviction 

for a qualifying offense, it permits the prosecutor to discount a prior conviction for a qualiQing 

offense if there is insufficient evidence to prove the prior conviction, or if the prosecutor 

Clark, et.al., supra note 2. IS 

“Penal Code S667(b). 

”Penal Code §667(g). 

“Penal Code §667(c)(2) and (c)(4). 

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bclicves that a hvo or thrcc strike scntcncc would not he -.in the furthcrance ofjusticu.""' It is 

this lattcr clause that allows individual district attorneys throughout thc statc of California to 

cstahlish thcir own policics on how thc law should bc applied. 

At thc statc lcvel, attention was focused on thc potcntial impact of the ncw law on thc 

prison systcm. The California Dcpartment of Corrections (CDC) projcctcd that thc prison inmate 

population would more than double in fivc years from its 1993 lcvel of 1 15,534 to 235,554 by 

1999 - with 80,000 of thcsc additional inmatcs bcing sccond or third strikers. Thc '-stacking 

effect" of so many prisoncrs, who would have to remain in prison by virtue of thc law would 

rcsult in a prison population of approximately 500,000 inmatcs by the year 2035, of which half 

would be second 'and third strikers.*" RAND projcctcd that the prison population would quickly 

rise to over 350,000 by thc year 2000 and eventually plateau at nearly 350,000.2' 

At first glancc, it would appcar that California's law has indecd had a major impact on 

thc criminal justicc systcm and thc prison systcm. As of 1998, over -10,000 offcndcrs have bccn 

scntcnccd to California's prisons undcr two or three strikes provision. Howcvcr, 3s will he 

sholvn bclou, thc projcctcd cffccts of thc law havc not hecn realized as the state's local criminal 

iusticc system (the courts in particular) havc found ways to circumvcnt the law and use it along 

1oc;il political and org:inizritional interests. 

Ic'. :inother Version of the Two Strikes Law with a First Strike I'rovision -- Georgia 

In Nolcmhcr 1004, voters in Georgia approvcd by an 81 pcrccnt to 19 pcrcent margin a 

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occasions for thc follon,ing crimes nould be scntcnccd to life imprisonment without the 

possibility of parole: murder. armed rohbeq,, kidnaping, rape, aggravated child molestation, 

aggravated sodomy. and aggra1,ated sexual hatteq. 

The law took cffcct January 1, 1995" and supplcmcnted pre-cxisting Georgia law that 

contains the following two proLisions for repeat offcndcrs: 

Upon thc second conviction for any felony, the offender may, at the discretion of 

the judge, he sentenced "to undergo the longest period of timc prescribed for tht; 

punishment of the subsequent offense" for which thc offender is convicted. 

Upon the fourth conviction for any felony, the offcndcr must serve the maximum 

time imposed. and not tx eligible for parole until that maximum time has been 

scrvcd. 

The law was also changed to require that persons convicted of any one of the strikeahle 

offenses for the first time uould be scntcnccd to a mandatory minimum prison term of ten years, 

ivith no possibility of parole or early rclcase. thus creating a one-strike provision. 

Thc Georgia law diffcrs from California's tnn strikes provision in at lcast four ways: 

0 it includcs fewer offenses as strikes: 

. it requires that a11 strikes he limited to the seven major offenses listed above, as 

opposed to California u hcrc any subscqucnt felony conviction can count as a 

strike; 

e thc second strikc in Georgia lends to life imprisonment without parole while the 

second strike in California rcsults in doubling the prcsumptivc sentence and 

limiting the amount of good-timc credit :in inmatc can cam: and 

e the Gcorgia Ian has niancf,itory minitnuin penalty for first strikers. 

L\.ith rcspcct to Washington. Georgia's law is diffcrcnt in that the life scntcnce is imposed 

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aticr a second strike rather than after a third strike, hut the list of strikeable offcnses in Georgia 

also much ~horter.'~ 

Soon after the law was adoptcd, litigation was tiled challengjng the constitutionality of 

the statute, claiming that it constitutes cruel and unusual punishment, and that it violates due 

is 

prcrccss and equal protection requirements. On June 3, 1996, the Georgia Supreme Court upheld 

the law against these challenges." ' 

>. 

-'Rt.lnti\e to other states, the Georgia 1au IS similar to those enacted in 1995 in Tennessee. South Carolina, 

;itid L1oni;ina 111 that they all require life imprisonment without parole for the second conviction for specified violent 

0 t'kn .;es. 

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WAS I-1 INGT ON, C AL I F() li N 1 :I, i\ N D G E 0 K G I A ST K I K E.*\ B L E 0 F F EX S E S 

Washington 

Any class .,I felony 

Conspiracy or solicitation to commit class A 

felon) 

Assault in the sccond Llcgree 

California 

Murder 

Voluntar).- hilanslnuglitcr 

1:apc _______~ ~~~~ ~~~ 

C:hilJ niolcst;ition in the second dcgrcc 

Contrnlled suhstance homicitlc 

Lcwd ,2ct on Child lindsr I-I 

Continual Scuual Ahuse of Child 

11 Kidnaping in the sccond dcgcc 

butortion in the tirst tlcgrcc 

Inccst apinqt a child under age fourteen 

Indecent lihcrtics Forcihlc Sodom) 

Forcihlc I’cnctration hy Foreign Ohlcct 

Sexual l’cnctraticin hy Ftrrce 

- 

I Ftircihlc Oral Copulalion 

1 .cad i ng tirg an i zicl cr i me 

X.l:inslauglitcr in the first or sccond tlcgrcc 

Promotin? prostitution in tlic first tlcgric 

Kohhcr) 

4ss;iult u ith a I>c:idIy Wcapon on I’cacc 

Ofticcr 

Assault with ;I I)cadly \Vc:ipon hy Ininate 

Georgia 

14 u rJ cr 

Knpc 

Kid nap ins 

Agyavatctl Sodomy 

I I ;In> Felony v here I-irc;um L‘sctl 

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CH.*\l'TEK 4 

RESEARCH ;CIETHOIIOLOGY 

I. introduction 

'This study was originally intended to cxamine how California and Washington state 

implemented their vcry differcnt versions of thc three strikes law (a process evaluation), and the 

effects these laws had on the courts, local corrections and the state prison systems. Hour\*er. it 

became clear that the Washington strike law, which was written much more narrowly than thc 

California la\\-: was having no impact on the court and correctional systcms in Washington. In 

fxt, as of the end of 1998, less than 150 offenders had been sentenced to prison as strikers in 

Washington, compared to ncarlj. 40,000 in California. As will be shown later on in this report. 

because California's impact has been largcly associated with its two strikes provision. the pro-ject 

\vas expanded to includc another statc with a two strikes component and one that was not located 

on thc west coast. After a careful review of the various statcs that had adopted two strikes 

initiati\.es, C;corgi;l \vas selcctcd as the third statc to bc evaluated because of its geographic 

1oc;ition and its implementation of the law. 

in this chapter, a bricf description of the research methods used to evaluate Georgia and 

Cali t'ornia arc prcscnted. The stcite of Washington was not included in the analysis bccuusc only 

a limitcd numher of offcndcrs havc been sentenced under the three strikes law. Thc process 

c\.alurition relied upon an array of intcrvicwx (with court ofticiais, prosecutors, public 

dcfcndants, judycs, and jail ofticials) and casu processing data that could be used to describe how 

thc courts intcrprctcd and rcspondcd to thc task of implcmcnting the new 1;iws. Impact data were 

limitcd to prc and post law comparisons in an effort to determine how cach statc's Imv altcrcd the 

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criminal court process and, ultimately the correctional system and crime rate trends, as ivcll. 

11. Impact an the Courts and Local Corrections 

One hypothesis concerning the impact of the thrcc strikes law was that it would result in 

considerable delays in the processing of felony cases through the court system ,as defendants 

charged with strikes would having nothing to lose, slow the process down by demanding trials 

which xvould clog the court system. It was also anticipatcd that thc lavs would result in jail 

overcrowding as pretrial detainees would remain in custody more frequently and for longer 

periods of time. Some jail officials predicted that the laws ~vould increase the rate of staff 

assaults and escapes, as inmates would become more brazen in thsir institutional behavior once 

they realized they would be sentcnced to life if convicted. 

Thcrc was also a concern that thc laws, contrary to the promise of providing more 

uniformity in sentencing practices would actually increase disparih. This could occur given the 

cnornmous discretionary powers provided to prosccutors on lvhcthcr to charge a dcfcndant lvith a 

t\vo or thrcc strikes provision. 

'Po detcrmine lvhether this impact \vas unifomi in counties across cach state, sevcrril 

counties in California and Gcorgia wcrc sclcctcd for in-depth analysis (San Francisco County, 

Kcm Count)., and Los Angcles Count\ in California, and Fulton County, Dclialh County, and 

C'harham County in Cicorgia). In both states, the counties sclccted were intendud to reflect the 

diwrsity in both state's population and criminal justice policies. For each of these six cnuntics, 

sc'l cral sitz visits xvcrc madc by the rcscarch staffto conduct interviews with local criniinal 

jiisticc ofticids and to collect data on sampled cases that could bc used to make prc and post 

t h rcc strikes 1 a~ coin pari sons. 

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A. C.'dlfomiLr Cotrrt nutci 

In California, Los Angeles CounQ.., lvith a population ofC).369,800. or 29 percent of the 

population of the entire state, it is oiw three times larger than the nest largest counq. 

Additionally, 32 percent of all superior court felony tilings statewide originated from Los 

Angcles County - significantly more than any other comb. Since the impact of the law on thc 

smallest counties would likely be much less severe, ttvo mid-sized countics were sought. Both 

Kcrn County and San Francisco County fit this description. Kcni County has a population of 

624,700, ranking it 14th in the state in population size, and Sail Francisco County ranks 1 1 th in 

the state with 755,300 residcnts. In fiscal year (FY) 1996/97, 2.7 percent of the felony filings in 

the state originated from Kern County, and 2.2 percent from San Francisco. 

A second criterion that was used in the selection of the California counties was how the 

lxv \vas being applied. Early reports from California suggested that prosecutors in various 

countics mere taking different approachcs to applying the law. Thus, to best test the impact 

\ :irious applications of the la\v had on local courts mci corrections, it was neccssary to select at 

Icast onc county that had a different approach to applying the law. From published newspaper 

rcports, it was discovered that the district attorney in San Francisco had implemented a policy of 

sclcctivc usc of thc Ia~v, applying it only in the ivorst cases. In fact, hc had expressed his 

intcndcd policy during his campaign for the office of district attorney." On the other hand, the 

policics of thc district attonicy in Kcm County - tvho \vas widely regarded as one of the law's 

chict'hackcrs st:itcu.idc - and the I,os Angclcs Count\ district attome),, %ere to apply the law in 

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every cast‘ that was eligible. 

To augment the interviews and review of availrible data from 1.0s Angeles, a sample \vas 

drawn of cases coming into the system from a period two years before the law7 took effect and 

two months after its enactment. Two stcps were taken in drawing the sample. First, all felony 

cases filed in the Municipal Courts in L,os Angeles County over a randomly selected five-day 

period in the month of May in 1994 (before thc law took effect) and in 1996 (after the law took 

effect) were identified. Second, from that list, the final sample list of all dcfendants who were 

cligiblc based on thcir past criminal history and present charge as second or third strikers were 

idcntificd. The sample of cases from the period before the law took effect was made up of cases 

that would have been two or three strike cases had the law been in effect at that time. These cases 

ibcre identified as such by an assistant district attorney. 

The baseline sample - cases that would have been eligiblc for ho or threc strike 

pcnaltics had the law been in effect at the time - \vas comprised of 15 1 cases (Table 3). Of thcse, 

1 12 wcrc potcntial sccond strike cascs, and 39 \vue potcntial third strike cases. The study 

s‘implc ~ actual strike cases - numbered 162, 1 13 \vcre sccond strike cases, and 49 were third 

strikc cast‘s. 

Thcsc cascs wrc trackcd irom thc point of arrest until the point of final disposition, 

f’ocusing on hail dccisions. charging dccisions. type of dispositions, time to disposition. and 

scn tcnci ng dcc i si ons. 

T;\RLE 4 

LOS ,L\NGELES H,\SELINE .+\NI) STRIKE SiIMI’LE 

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-~ ~ 

1994 - baseline group 

Second Strikcrs Third Strikers Total 

112 39 151 

B Gwrgiu Court Duki 

In Georgia, since less strikers were anticipated due to the much shorter list of strikeable 

, offenses - indeed many smaller counties could expect a strike case to be a rare event, particularly 

a second strike case - it was believed that targeting the three largest counties in the state was the 

only viable option. According to Georgia Department of Correction data, Fulton Count).., 

DeKalb County. and Chatham County rank in the top three (in that order) ofsending inmates to 

the state prison system. 

Similar to California's county level data, before and afiter samples of strikc cases \yere 

drann from Fulton, DeKalb and Chatham Counties, hut the steps taken to identil'y the samples 

differed. The Georgia Bureau of In\xstigtltion provided a list of all defendants charged with any 

onc of the seven strikeable offenses in all three counties during the last six months of 1993 and 

1900 (see Table 5). 

The sample list in DeKalb and Chatham Counties constituted all cases filed during these 

timc periods, minus those that were vo1dt.d In DeKalh County, the baseline sample (1994) was 

comprised of 119 cases, 115 of them ncre drkndants charged Lvith their first strikes, and four of 

[hem Lbcrt' charged mith their second strikc. The study sample (1096) is made up of 129 cases. 

1996- study group 

"'C';ISCS \vert. Loided froin the sample for tibo reasons. Upon investigating the cases. it was found thx 

soiiit' iiivoI\ed clinrges that bvere not strikeable offenses; 1.e.. the charge ma) have been attempted armed robber) 

iti\ted of nnned robber), or sexiial batteiq rathei- than aggravated sexual battery. In other instances. the cases that 

;ippe;irctl on the list cotrld not be located in the court's computer s>'sterns. This was particularly a problem in 

IkKnlh Co~inty. \\here a large number of cnaes \\ere \nided. 

11; 49 162 

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126 of them first strikers. and three of thcm sccond strikers. In Chatham Count\., the basclinc 

samplc was made up of 84 cases, 80 of them first strikers and four of them sccond strikers. The 

study samplc has 91 cases, 84 of them first strikers, and seven of thcm second strikers. 

In Fulton County, where thc volume of cases coming into the system is substantially 

higher than in thc other two counties, the samples were dra\vn by randomly selecting 150 strike 

cases from the list of all those entering the system in thc last six months of 1993 and 1'196. As 

Table 5 shows, there were 335 strike cases tiled in Fulton County during the last six months of 

1994, and 347 cascs during the samc period in 1996. Minus the voided cases, the basclinc 

samplc in Fulton County has 136 cases, and thc study sample is compriscd of 137 cases. Tahlc 6 

breaks down thc sample into first and second strikcrs in each of thc counties. As u-ith the Los 

Angclcs Counb. samplc, cases from the three GcorSia counties were tracked from arrest to ha1 

d i s pos i ti on. 

Ill. Impact on State Prison Systems 

The second level of impact examined the effects of the three strikes laws on the 

corrcctionnl sj'stcms of California, Washington. and Georgia . Prior to the enactment of the law 

io both states, there \vas considerable concern that the laivs could greatly increase the state prison 

populntions. The corrcctional systcm impact analysis focused upon: 

0 the accuracy of thc prison population grokvth assumptions and estimates; 

the size and attributes of the state correctional population sentenced under the 

the short- and long-tcrm changes in the administrativc :mi operational proccsscs 

. latvs; and 

of state corrcctionrtl fxilitics resulting from the prcscncc of thc strike populations. 

. 

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SAh4PLE SELECTION OF CASES WITH STRIKE CHARGES 

County 

DcKalb 

Defendants 

1096 I 209 

I4 

Chatham I 

136 

I094 I 106 

Totals 

Fultoo I 

1,264 

1994 I 335 

First Strikers 

I 906 I ~ 317 

I Second Strikers Total 

1 004 - b'iscl ine group 

1906 - stud) group 

Sample Selection Method Voided Cases Final Sample Size 

115 3 119 

136 3 129 

IOC)?n of all cases I 51 I 119 

1 W4 - basclinc group 

lW6 - study group 

1 OOni of all cases I 8o I 129 

80 4 84 

83 7 91 

I OODb of all cases I 22 I 8-1 

1 W1 - hascl i nc group 128 

1006 - study group 12s 

Totills 66 1 

10041 of all cases I 3 I 91 

8 136 

9 137 

35 696 

Random sclcction of I50 

cases 

Random selection of 150 

c;tscs 

13 

I 186 696 

TABLE 6 

G E 0 RG 1 A COUNT 1 E S ' ST R I K E SAM P L E 

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To assess the impact of the lmts on the state correctional slstcms, both qualitati\.e and 

quanti tative data \\-ere collected from multiple sources kvithin the departments of corrections. In 

each state: individual level data were secured for all inmates admitted to prison, as either a three, 

or two strike case. Thcsc data included demographic information, current offense, and 

classification data and were used to both profile and monitor the number and types of offenders 

sentenced under the law. Interviews wcre also conducted with administrative. supervisory, and 

line level staff. Through individual interviews and focus groups, project staff solicited state 

officials' perceptions of the law's impact on the department's fiscal, operational, and planning 

processes. 

JV. Impact on Crime Rates 

The third level of impact examined the effect of the law on reported crime rates. In order 

to make this assessment ~vc compared prc and post threc strikcs crime rate trends between states 

that had adopted three strike laws, and those that had not. All this was done while attcmpting to 

contr01. as hcst as possible, for pre threc strikes crime rates and the size ofa state. 

The California Crime Index (CCT) presents data on the numbcr of reportcd crimes per 

100.000 residents for each of California's 58 counties. The Uniform Crime Report (UCR) 

prcscnts crime rate data for the United States, hrokcn down by state and local jurisdictions. 

Thcsc data ncrc used to compare recent crime trends in states with strike la~ts against states 

\\ ithout strike laws. 

Finall>,. \i.ithin California. inter\'ic\vs iverc conducted with inmatcs \tho had bccn 

iiiiarccr;itcci undcr the California law. Six institutions wcrc idcntificd as intcrvicw sites from 

L~tnong thc -32 CI>C institutions. Institutions \vue selected based upon the nuinhcr of strikcrs 

-70- 

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uithin the facilit). and location (California Institution for Womcn, California Institution for ;Llt.n, 

California Kchahilitation Ccntcr for Women. California Rehabilitation Center, San Quentin, and 

California State Prison at Lancaster). A samplc of 54 inmates sentcnccd under the California 

strikc lau, bvho \\ere housed in these six institutions as of February 1997 wcro selected 

randomly. The sample of strikcrs was stratified by scntcnce type jhvo strikcrs versus thrcc 

strikers), offense category (violent, propcrty, drug. and other), and gcnder. Because several 

inmates selected in the random sample were unavai lablc for intcrviewing, had been transferred to 

other facilities, or \vue making court appcarances," only 32 inmates Lverc interviewed (17 

second strikcrs and 15 third strikers). Despite the low sample numbers, the demographic and 

criminal offcnsc chxacteristics of the sample were similar to the original 54 randomly selccted 

inmates and the entire univcrsc of two and thrcc strikcrs. 

17 

~'-Phe largest portion of the "refusals" \$as firom Calitot-nia State Prison at Lancaster (CSP-LA). This was 

priiii;ii'iI\ due to the institution's procedures for notif! ing the iniiiates about the study and obtaining their consent to 

pirticipatc. At CSP-LA. the strikers selected were notitied ofthe study via a ineinoranduin froin the CDC and 

iir\ti iicted to subinit a signed research consent foriii to the coininunity resources coordinator if they were interested 

iii p'irticipating Nearly half did not respond to the ineinoranduin. In contrast. only two iniiiates refused to be 

iirtcr\ ic\\cd at the other facilities. At those facilities. prqject staff\cere permitted to personally explain the stud) 

arid (lie purpose ofthe interview to potential iiitervic\vees. The datu suggest that our sainple of interviewees was 

rt~prc.mit;itive of tlie original raiidorn sample and tlie pupiilalion of'strikcrs within CIX. Because we purposely 

o\ r'r hciiiipled tor feiiiales. our sample diftcred trom the CDC striker population witti respect to gender. 

'Y Each inmate was individuall\ interviewed \\ ithout CDC staff present and \\;is assured that the 

in lorin.ition pro\ idcd \\.auld reinain con tidential and \~ould oiil! be used for research purposes. Upon consent of 

[tic iiiiii;ifc cirid the loci11 tacilitJ,. the inter\ ieu, \vas tape i-eco~.(Ie~l to facilitate review arid analj,sis ot'thc data. The 

iii[ci \ ir'us ci\ci.agcd one hour in length. ranging thin 30 to 90 ininutes. A standard interview protocol \\;is used for 

c,icIi iiilcin ic\i (!,et' ,.\pperidii A) hone of the strike[-s refused to have the interview taped recorded. However. 

iliiw ot'tlic hi1 in\titutionb did iiot allo\r tape rccordci-s to be brought into the facility and cocild not provide ;iccess 

lo ;I C'DC' pwxible recorder. 

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CH..\I'TEK 5 

IMI',iCT ON THE COURTS 

I. The California Experience 

Thc California law has generated much puhlicity for thc harsh sentences that have been 

imposcd for offcnscs that are portrayed as minor. I,ikewisc, the California law has produced a 

great deal of litigation in the California appcllatc courts.2o Among the many constitutional issues 

the courts haw had to address are: whether the law is unconstitutionally ~agut,~" whether the 

scntences required by the law constitute cruel and unusual p~nishment,~' whether requiring strike 

offenders to serve 80 percent of their scntcnces through limitation on good time credits that do 

not extend to non-strike offenders is a violation of equal protectionq3* and whethcr counting as a 

strike a prior conviction that occurred before the enactment of thc law violates ex post facto 

constitutional proc is ion^.^^ On each of thcsc issuos. thc courts have ruled that the law meets state 

"I 

~ I-hese cases are compiled and summarized in: Judge J. Richard Couzens. The T/i,ec Sirikcs Seii~encing 

L'i~i. Plncer County Superior Court. Auburn. CA. 1007. 

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and federal constitutional requirements. 

Several legal issues have risen that ul timatcly Lvere rcsolvcd b) thc California Supreme 

Court. The state's highest court has ruled that out-of-state prior convictions for offenses with 

cnmparablc elements to offenses that arc strikes in California should count as prior strike^,^' as 

should prior iu\enile ad-judications if the .juvenile \vas at least 16 years of age when the offense 

\vas conimi tted.3' 

T~vother issues addressed the discretion retained by the court under thc law given its 

clear mandatory sentencing language. One of these issues concerned what are known as 

'-wohblcrs." A --wobbler" offense is one where the judge, b~. statute. has discretion to scntence 

either as a felony or misdemeanor. 'Taking a case in which onc Court of Appeals had olerturned 

a trial court's decision to declare a charge in a strike case a misdemeanor (seLwal other Courts of 

Appcal had afijrrned that a trial court retained the right to do this under the three strikes lam)), the 

Sup-cmc Court rulcd in f'coplt' v Szipcrior Cotlrr (,~LIYIY~z) that nothing in either the legislature's 

or thc clcctoratc's rrcrsion of the law limits thc judgc's statutory discretion rcgarding wobblurs. 

.~ 

"PL~o~~L, 1'. L)m.I'.s. CalifSupCt. No. S05393.1. The dispute before the court centered around language iii the 

I'in tiiiit also required that the juvenile was found to be a "tit and proper subject to be dealt with underjuvenile 

court la\\..' ($6679ci)(3)(C) This phrase refers to the process of determining whether a juvenile should be 

prcwcutzd in adult court. Under California law. aJuvenile can be prosecuted in adult court if the jiivt.nile court 

~\~ii~e~-iiii-i~~lictioi~ by finding the juvenile to be unfit for the juvenile justice system 

Strpi.cirie Court. the defendant. Davis. had a prior juvenile adjudication for felony assault. but there was never any 

cttoi-r to \\aii.e that case to adult court. thus there was never a hearing to detei-mine his titness forjuvenile cotiit. 

Lh\ I\ conttnded that since there was never a determination that he was tit for juvenile court, the juvenile 

xl~i~icliciitioii for xsaiilt should not be counted as a pi-ior sti-ike. The Supreme Court disagreed. ruling that 

iicI~~udic:ition ofa case in juvenile twit is an implicit finding of titness. 

In the case before the 

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I'hc court did state. howwcr. that it \vould bc an ahuse ofdiscretion on thc part ofa trial judge to 

rcducc 3 felon:, to a misdemeanor just to avoid the hvo or thrcc strike pcnalh . .Phc trial court 

must consider the defendant's background and thc naturc of the offcnsc in exercising this 

discretion.3h 

The other issuc relating to the court-s discretion arose Lvhen a trial court decided, over the 

prosecutor's objections, to discount a prior felony con1 iction in a three strikc case and sentenced 

thc defcndmt to six years in prison. The prosccution appealed. arguing that the court had no 

authority under the threc strikes law to discount prior convictions. and this discretion rested 

solcly with the prosecution. The Court of Appeals agreed and overturned thc trial court's 

dccision. The California Supreme Court in fcoplc v. Superior Court (Romcro), sidcd with the 

trial court, ruling that nothing in the law denies judges this authority. The Suprcmo Court also 

suggested, but did not rulc, that any law that lvould deny judges this authority would violate the 

scp'irdtion o t p~wcrs.~' 

l'hc first three of thcsc decisions drew little concern ahout changing the way the law was 

king applied throughout the state sincc thcrc \vas littlc cikision on the issues prcscnted in these 

c~iscs in the lowcr courts. But the Romcro decision, tvhich \\tils issucd in June 1996, had the 

potcntid to crcatc an cnormous impact. The appcllatc courts. Mhich published morc than 20 

opinions on thc issuc of judicial authority to disrcgartl prior convictions. wcrc sharply divided. 

hl,in> rulcd th,it iudgcs had no authority to disrcprd prior con\.ictions, sc\u-al ruled that such 

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authority did csist, and others ruled that such authorit> existed. hut in \-ST liinitcd 

circumstanccs.iR By the time the Suprcmc Court's dccision \vas announced, the law had been in 

effect for over two years and 16,000 offendcrs had bccn sentenced under its pro\,isions. The 

dccision in Rolncro was met with concerns that many of these offenders would have to be 

brought back to court from prison for re-sentencing. Concern \vas also expressed by many 

political leaders that the Supreme Court \vas substantially "watering donm" the three strikes law 

by giving judges back the discretion that the law originally was intended to limit. 

As will be noted later on in this report, in the aftermath of Koinc)ro, thc actions of trial 

judges havc quieted these concerns. Judgcs have not been bringing offenders back in large 

numhcrs for re-scntcncing, and have been using their authority to strike priors sparingly.'" 

R. Stcrtewidc Inipoct OM the Cullfornia Courts 

Gi\.cn the broad scope of the strike law, state agcncies in California began analyzing the 

impact the law \vas having on local systems statavidc, soon after the law went into effect. A 

suncy done by the Administrative Office of the California Courts approximately a year and a 

hnlfaftcr the strike law took effect showed thc impact that the law \vas having on the work of the 

municipal and superior courts:'" The sur\.cy found that 67 percent of responding municipal 

:i Jdge J. Richard Couzens. "To Strike or Not to Strike; That Is the Question." C'OU~~ Not:s. Judicial 

Council of California. February-March 1996. 

: 9 f:or example, in Santa Clara and Contra Costa Counties, judges nere discounting priors in about five 

percrtrit of strike cases. In Los Angeles County. the discount rate has been approsiinately 14 percent. "The '3 

Sti.iLe\' C'i-isis That Didn't Happeii." Thr SU/I Frum~i.vc.o Rci~o/~/er. Jantiary 23. 1097. 

1'1-ial courts in California are coinpi-ked of the municipal couits and tlie superior courts. Thc municipal 

courts ,ire rehponsible for a11 matters. including trial and sentencing. of persons charged with misdemeanors. 

hliinicipal coiii-ts ;itso set bail and conduct preliminary hearings in tlie approxiinately 250,000 felony cascs tiled in 

iil~inicipil coilit each \cur, and linve jurisdiction in cases irivulviiig infractions. in civil cases where the matter in 

di!,piite 

4'1 

no gcatcr than S25.000. and in sinall claiiiis cases not exceedins S5.000. There are I09 inunicipal courts 

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courts noted an increase in the number of prcliminaF hcxings due to the three strikes laiv 

Forty-six percent of the courts noted an increase in the length of the preliminary hearing, and 40 

percent reported more prc-pel iminap hearing appearanccs. " 

Some of these early concerns resulted in actions taken by the state to expand thc capacity 

of thc courts to handle what many thought would be a significant increase on the courts' felony 

trail workloads. In 1996. the legislature passed, and the goyernor signed a measure providing 

$3.5 million in funding for a '-Three Strikes Relief Team.'' Retired judges nere assigned to 

courts experiencing excessive backlog as a result of the strike law to make sure that hvo and 

three strike cases \\ere not being dismissed due to lack of judicial rcsourct's. Up to 30 retired 

ludgcs \\ere deployed to backlogged superior courts throughout the state. *2 

More recent data, however, show that the number of superior court preliminary hearings 

arc xtuall> dccrcasing statetvide (see Table 7).43 There was a 11 percent increase in the number 

of tclon) tri'ils bctwecn FY 1993-94 and FY 19c)4-c)5. the first full year that the law was in 

cftcct. c\cn though thcrc was only a tmo pcrccnt incrcasc in felony filings during the same 

pcricd MorcoL cr, the felony trial rate grab by four pcrcent the following year, while fclony 

filings decreased by three percent. HoweLcr, the following year showed declines in the number 

of prcliminciF hearings, felon) cases filed, and felon>, trials. If one looks just at the rate of trials 

pcr 100 felon) cascs filed, thcre has been no chaiigc sincc 1988. 

statcu idc. \\ ith appro\iinately 675 municipal coiii-t -judges. 

+-(.o/// I ,\'L,IIT. Judicial Council of California. Administrative Office of the Courts, Febi-iraq/March. 1997. 

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As cxpcctcd, the trial rate for felon), non-strike cases is four percent, compared to nine 

perccnt for sccond strikc cases, and 31 pcrccnt for third strike cases. Hut because the t\vo and 

thrcc strikc cases represent such a small percentage of all trials, the law has not had a major 

These statc\vidc trends lead to b.c) conclusions, that the law did not have 2s great an 

impact ;IS originallv cstimated, and there ha\ie been considerahle variations among the counties in 

It< ,ipplic,ition. ,\s noted earlier, the la\\r's provision that allowed prosecutors to drop charges or 

no1 rcqucst lippl rcation of the tuv or three strikes pro\.ision in the "interest of iustice"affordd 

tiicin grc,il Jiszretion in deciding v..hcther to charge defendants Lvith a tux) or three strike 

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Just hnw Lvidcspread this variation is can bc seen in Table 8 Lvhich slio\\.s the usc of the 

txvn and thrcc strikes lam in six major but diverse California counties. Alamcdci and San 

Francisco county arc ‘-low use“ counties \vhile San Diego and Sacramcnto countics are “high” 

rate users. and Kcrn county lies hchveen the hvo cxtremes. [,os Angela, dominates all of the 

othcr counties, in that its adhcrence to the law’s application surpasses all others at an extremely 

hish rate. The rest of this chapter seeks to explain the role of prosecutorial discretion in 

producing such disparate rates in how the law has been applied in three counties selected for a 

morc intense analysis (Kern, San Francisco. and Los Angles). 

1). A C,’loser Look at thc Irnplcmcrztutim uitd Impcict in Thrce Counties 

One of the major questions to be assessed is whether thc law has had an impact on the 

work of the court. We have already noted that on a statelvidc level, there have bcen declines in 

txvo ma.jor indicators of the courts’ work load (preliminary hcnrings and felony cases filed) but 

thcrc has been :in increase in jury trials. Could it be that the three strikes law has incroascd 

prcssurcs for defendants to seck ajurq trial, knowing the profound conscqucnccs of being found 

guilt? and scntcnced as 3 two or three strike offender? 

In gcneral terms, the three casc study counties showed verj different trends with respect 

to fclon). cases filed and jury trials held. San Francisco has rcportcd sharp dcclincs in both the 

numhcr of fclony cases filed and jury trials since the adoption of the three strikes linv. Kern 

County rcportcd a slight increase in court filings but ti sharp increase in trials. I,os Angclcs has 

sholvn a small decline in felony tilings an3 a slight increase inJury trials. What follo\vs arc 

rlcscriptions ot hoxv each count). sought to implemcnt thc law according to their local politics and 

thc resulting effccts on thc court‘s Lvork. 

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COhII’AItISON OF SELECTED COIJNTIES ON USE OF 

S I7 C 0 N I) A N I) ‘1 €4 I I< 1 1 S‘1 I< 1 KE S 

I .os Aiigclcs 0.5 2 3. Of 10 

Sail Francisco 7 7 7 .I 00 

Sacralllcnto I. 146.800 

Kcrri 633.400 

St;ttewide 

Totals 31,211,000 

Viole n t 

Crime 

1997 

Itate 

18,006 65 1.6 

13,428 960.2 

106,673 1,120.0 156,356 1,641.6 

8,608 1,107.3 14,706 1,89 1.7 

8,03H I 779.4 1 32, 806 I 2, 86K.5 

4,094 1 635.3 I 11,161 1 1,759.3 

336,381 1 1,078 1 1,678,884 5,379 

Ad missions Atlniissions 

4,250 

489 

16,7 I5 I 32.8 1 20;; 1 42.2 ().s 

346 0.9 

1,719 4.6 277 5.7 

1,017 2.8 243 5.0 

27,051 100.0 3,281 100.0 

-39- 

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TABLE 9 

Year San Francisco 

SUPERIOR COURT FELONY CASE FILINGS 

KEW, SAN FRANCISCO, AiVD LOS ANGELES 

Kern Los Angeles Statewide 

FY 9O;C)l 3,09 1 

FY 91/92 5,337 

FY 92/93 6,137 

FY 93/94 5.593 

FY 90i03 ilverage 5,365 

4,306 55.571 159,419 

4,728 54.849 164,635 

4,592 5 1.527 163,432 

4.934 48.286 154,959 

4,640 52,558 160,611 

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TABLE 10 

Year 

SUPERIOR COURT JURY TRIALS 

SAlV FR4NCISC0, KERN, AND LOS ANGELES 

San Francisco Kern Los Angeles Statewide 

~ ~~~ 

FY 90/91 

FY 91/92 

FY 92/93 

~ ~~~_________ 

125 262 1.737 5,389 

109 228 1,887 5,7 16 

143 184 2,166 5,730 

FY 93/93 I 155 I 203 I 1,834 I 

FY 90/91 A\ erage 

5,485 

133 219 1.906 5,583 

FY 94/95 

FY 95/96 

FY 96/97 

FY 03197 I\\C 

00 Chmge in Acerage for 

FY 00-03 ct FY 04-97 

13cfi)t-c proceeding with this analysis, it should be noted that the le\~l and quality ofdata 

a\.ailable vxicd considerably for each county. At the state lcc~l, there is no statistical reporting 

c)f'thc thrcc 2nd tux) strike cases. Even at the local level, some counties are unablc to report on 

ho\\. m.in>- caxs ha\.t. been prvsecuted under the new la~v. Los Angeles county as able to 

crcatc ;I prc slrikes cohort of iL.lc)ny cxes that could ha\x been prosecuted undtx the nelv strikes 

l:i\\- h:id it existcct at that tirnc. Hut ewn that data must be viclvcd lvith some letd of suspicion 

-41- 

154 262 2,038 6.167 

IO3 395 2.075 h,397 

81 330 1,841 5,903 

113 209 1,985 6.150 

- 15.3% 36.40io 4.1% 10.3'36 

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as it is unable to control for cvhat \vi11 emerge from the following analysis of three ciise studies 

of prosrcutorial discretion. Consequently, our analysis is not st:indardized for the three counties 

but relies upon data available for each county. Nonetheless, they do provide insights on the 

impact or lack thereof for the California strikes law. 

1. San Francisco County 

Court officials in San Francisco did not begin capturing data on the number of strike 

cases filed until September 1396. In the six months between September 1996 and February 

1997, only 45 strike cases were filed. Of these, 20 were third strike cases and 25 were second 

strike cases. Based on a total of several thousand felony cast‘s filed each year. it’s clear that the 

law is having little consequences on court’s business. For the reasons cited below, San Francisco 

has chosen to limit the strike zone for a very select group of offenders. 

When the strike law \vas on the ballot as Proposition 184 in November 1993, only one 

cc)unty in the state - San Francisco - voted to reject the measure. This vote reflected the long 

tradition o1’San Francisco residents being less conservative than the rest of the state on crime and 

social issucs. As ;1 result of public sentiment nbout the strike law. the district attorney’s oftice 

riin into several problcms in obtaining strike convictions in the months immediately fullowing 

thc cnactment of the la\v. For example. in thc first strike case that \vas set to be prosecuted, the 

i iclim, ;i 7 1 -yc;ir-olJ lvoman Lvhose car was hroken into, refused to testifj. against thc defendant 

\\hen she learncd that the defendant wiis Pacing ;I mandatory life sentmix 21s a third striker.” Just 

Ci,i!,s later, LI municipal court judge. in a case involving ii wobhler, rcduced a felony charge to ii 

misdcniciinor, exposing the dcfcndimt to a maximum sentcnce ofonc year in jail, rather than the 

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25 year to life sentence that the district attorney's office ivas seeking." As a result of' these early 

difliculties and given public sentiment about the law. the district attorney's office began 

discounting prior convictions in a number of cases. 

In his successfd 1995 campaign to hecome district attorney, former defense lalbyer 

Terence Hallinan openly criticized the strike law and its interpretation by the current district 

attorney. Once in office, one of Hallinan's first actions was to announce a new policy on strike 

cases: using the discretion conveyed by the law to the district attorney to discount prior strikes 

"in the furtherance ofjustice," strike penalties wcwld no longer he sought for persons charged 

ivith nonviolent offenses." Cases of strike defendants, Le., those with the requisite history of 

cvn\.ictions for strikeahle offenses, who are charged with violent crimes are revicwed by a 

committee of assistant district attorneys to determine whether strike penalties will be sought.'7 

One expectation of the strike law \vas that it might change bail-setting practices of 

municipal court jLidges.'K The greater potential penalty that a strike defendant would fke if 

convicted could create an incentive to flee to avoid prosecution. To address that flight risk. 

judges might set higher bails in strike cases. In our interviews lvith municipal court officials, it 

\viis rcported that judges do tcnd to set high bail in strike cases, but since these cases invohte very 

Sun Francisco Dui/>, ./O~II.IIL~. April 28. I994 45 

The uine plieiioinenon \\as noted by Illalcolm Feele! and Sam Kamin in their early study of the effects 4' 

01 thc Ccilitorni:i I'i\t in Alaineda count\-- another IOU use county. 

"T'tic Alarnetla County prosecutor's office is even more direct (than San Fi-uncisco) iii its 

ndaptibe response to the lau it did not want. According to Chief Deputy Richard 

1~eItia-t. a case nil1 nut be brough[ as a third strike iii~less the current felony is either 

~ei-io~i~ or violent despite the fact that the lanyage of the statute mandates the charging 

ut' ;in> felony as a third sti-ike". 

I here IS one niiinicipal cwi-t in Skin Francisco Count>. with 20Jud~t.s. 4k 

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of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report
serious charges. it was likely that very high hails ~vould ha\,e been set anyway. System officials 

reported no noticeable differences in the number. nature: or duration of preliminar). hearings 

regarding strike cases when compared to other cases involving \.iolent offenses. 

,Is suggested above, the impact of the law at the superior court level has been minimal." 

Of the appruximately SO0 felony cases that were pending in that court as of Februar) 1997, onl>. 

3 1. or less than four percent, were strike cases - 17 second strikes and 14 third strikes. System 

officials report that the strike cases that are tried would most likely have gone to trial anyway, 

gi\m the seriousness of the charges. 

However, there has been some impact on the system when strike cases do go to trial. 

Empaneling a jug, in ;i strike case has required more resources. In a typical felony case, 60 

jurors are empaneled for the jury selection process. Given the public sentiment against the strike 

law in San Francisco, courts have been empaneling at least 75 jurors for second strike trials, and 

hchvecn 100 :ind 120 fc)r third strike trials. 

The public defender's ofiice also reports that a strikc trial puts cnormous pressure on 

attomc),s and in\.tsstigators, xvho must give a third strikc case almost ;is much attenticm as a 

capital case. Public defenders \vi11 often employ expert witnesses to tcsti6 in strikc cases, 

dcplcting thc officc's expert witness fund, muking it dil'iicult to pro\.ide this resource in nonstrike c;iscs. Yct. the consensus of system ollicials in San Francisco County is that the strike law 

hx had ;I minimal impact on the processing of cases in that jurisdiction. Nevertheless. all of this 

could change u ith a change in the policies of the district attorneys oflice. 

2. Kern County 

Thc policj. ut the Kern County district attorneJrs oflice regarding strike cast's \\';is to 

1'1 I-lir wpci-ior court bench in the county ih coinprised of29 judges 

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of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report
rigorously adhere to the section ufthe law that says that strikes must be lilsd. This p>lic! is 

reflected in their statistics showing that by January 3 1, 1997, the prosecutors had tiled 353 third 

strike c;~.es and 776 second strike cases (Table 1 1). Nearly half of the persons charged as ;1 third 

Court Outcomes 

Number of Cases 

Percent pending sentencing 

striker have ended up with a third strike sentence. with almost 12 percent still pending trial or 

sentencing. Nearly 22 percent received a sentence less than that prescribed for a third striker. 

Twentjr percent of the third strike cases ended in dismissal or acquittal. 

Two Strike 

Cases 

776 

2.3‘)/0 

TABLE 11 

Percent pending trial 

l’crccnt convicted and scntcnccd as a two or third 

strikcr 

COURT DISPOSITIONS OF FELONY CASES FILED AS 

TWO AND THREE STRIKE CASES IN KERN COUNTY 

4.3YO 

72.2Yn 

I’ercent sentenced as less than a Wo or third striker I 10.7% 

I 8.8% I’c rc cn t cas c s d i sni i ssc d 

Three Strike 

Cases 

353 

1.1% 

10.5% 

46.5% 

2 1.5% 

16.7Yo 

[Is for sccond strike c;iscs, nearly thrce quarters ended Lvith a sccond strike sentence, with 

about eight percent still pending. Only I1 percent of persons chargcd 3s twm-strikers rcccived 

Icss than a t\vo strikc scntencc. 

lI\.cn though the number of thrcc and t\vo strike cases f?lccl in Kern County was much 

hiyhcr tlinn in Snn Francisco. thc conscnsus of court officials is that the strike laur has had no 

irnpxt OII thc court in a number ofkcy art‘ns. First, with rcspcct to prctrial rclcase dccision 

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of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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making vf municipal court judges. the court reported that most dcfendants nith criminal histories 

that include serious felonies, and who are charged with a new felvny, were not being relcased 

before the strike law.”” In superior court, even though an estimated SO to 85 percent of third 

strike cases and 20 to 25 percent of second strike cases go to trial, compared to an overall felony 

trial rate in Kern County of 5 per~ent,~’ officials reported that many of these cases would have 

gone to trial anyway because of the seriousness of the charge and the extent of the criminal 

record. As one official noted, Kern County has always had a higher percentage of cases going to 

trial than other California counties because of the district attorney’s rcputation as being ‘.stingy” 

on plea bargains. 

As noted earlier in Table 10, the number of felony trials held in superior court has been 

going up since the law \.vas adopted. However, system officials report that the strike law does not 

appear to haw slo\ved down the processing of cases, with nu increase in the backlog of cases 

since the strike law \vas enacted. To accommodate the larger number offclony trials. one family 

court jdyc has been shifted to hearing criminal cases. Lvith the family court slot filled by a new 

commissioner’s position. Thus, although the law has increased the number of trials, it has not 

hecn sc) great as to significantly clog the courts. 

3. Los Angclcs County 

In Los ilnglcs, the overall pattern ohservcd was an initial backlog of cases associated 

M i th 1hc ne\\’ law fc)llou,ed by ;I general easing of the si tuaticm as the ccwrts developed new 

mcthods iklr handling felon), cases in general. There is no question that the number ofcasc‘s tiled 

mil tried has hccn greatest in this county. The district attorne}.’s oflice in Los Angeles has been 

<I,. 1.lit.re ai-e toirr iniiiiicipal courts in Kern Count). \kith a total of I5 municipal court jridges 

t\mpolatcd ti-oin /YY6 .Aiiiiii~i/ RL,por/. Judicial Council of California. p. i IS. -1 

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of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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filing an aiw-age of 200 third strike and 500 second strike cases cach month since the la\\ rcwk 

efkct. Through September 1996, the office had filed 15,638 second strike cases and 6,179 third 

strike c;ises. The second strike filings represented 9.0 percent of all felony lilings through that 

date; the third strike filings represented 3.6 percent of all felony filings. 

The Lvritten policy of the district attorneys office on filing and prosecuting strike cases 

reads: 

"Only in rare (emphasis in original) instances should the prosecution move 

to dismiss a prior felony conviction allegation under the 'in the furtherance 

of justice' standard" of the strike la~v. Furthermore. such action should 

onl}. be taken Lvhen the sentence that would be imposed under the strike 

law '-\vould result in a miscarriage ofjustice..' 

Dismissing a prior can only be done with the written approval ofthe head deputy in charge of the 

branch district attorneys office." 

In order to assess the impact of this law, the county created a sample of fclony cases 

proccssed in 1992 u.ho could have been charged with a second or third strikt: provision, had the 

law existed. This sample c)fcases \vas then compared with cases being prosecuted under the 

strikes law in 1092. Although it is not clear from the data submitted by the county as to the 

cclui\ alcncy of thusc trio smples. they do providc some explanation for initial problems 

cncountcred by the courts as they struggled tu implement the law. 

LVith respect to pretrial release. similar to Kern County, very feu, three and tuo strike 

Jcl~nJants ntrc As shoum in Tahle 12, approximately 10 percent ofthe t\vo and 

thrce strike cascs u ere released by thz municipal courts in 1904. Hoxvever, ;is \vas the case in 

Kcrn Count). these types ofc;~ses nere rarely released prior to laiv. so there is little rtxson to 

<, -Speci,il Dii-t'ctiLe 04-04 ofthe Los Angeles Couiit) District Attorne)s Office. May 2. 1994 

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of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report
claim that the law reduced pretrial release rates. 

To explore u hether there w;is any difference in the bail-setting practices of municipal 

court judges as a result of thz law, xve compared the bail amounts that kept strikeable defendants 

in jail in the 1994 gmup to their counterparts in 1992, and found that much higher bail amounts 

were being set in the strike cases. As Table 12 also sholvs, the a\rrage bail amounts that kept 

delendants in jail were much higher for every charge in the study group than in the baseline 

group. In intervieivs rvith sys;em officials regarding this, it was reported that etren though bail is 

likely to be set higher in strike cases because of concerns about flight, since most of these 

defendants had extensi\x criminal histories and were facing new felony charges, they were likely 

to remain in jail on high bails regardless. 

Of'ficiclls reported that both the number of preliminary hearings held in strike cases and 

the length of time required to conduct them initially increased. As more defendants fixing 

strikes are demanding preliminary hearings, and prosecutors and defenders are litigating more 

L igorouslq' at these hearings. judges and attorneys report that it can take longer to move these 

c'isc's out of municipil court and onto a superior court calendar. It \\as also reported that more 

motions tcnd to be fi1t.d in strike cases in municipal court. 

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has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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TABLE 12 

PRETRIAL RELEASE AND BAIL A>IOUNTS 

LOS ANGELES COUNTY 

1992 AND 1993 FOR PRE AND POST TWO AND THREE STRIKE LAW CASES 

The impct that these detelopmcnts hii\,c hiid on the overall \\.orkload of the municipal 

court \.,irics, depending on the size of the court. For examplc. municipal court judges from 

snicilli.r stihurbm Loj ;\ngelcs courts noted little o\mdl impact on workload. Ivhile their 

countcrparts in thc Iiir2i.r municipal courts serving the urban parts of the county noted large 

ii1crc;iscs. .lnothcr imp‘ict at the municipal court Icvel has becn an increase in the number of 

.\f~ir\c/C,t7 hcariny. in \\ hich the court ccmsiclcrs the dcfcndant’s requests for a ne\v attorney, and 

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of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report
nn increase in the number of defendants wishing to rcprcscnt thcmselvcs. Judges and attorneys 

noted that the law has brought about grcater distrust of clients for their attomcys because 

dcfcndants facing strike sentcnces -'don't know who else to blame" for the scrious situation they 

are in. As with the increase in preliminary hearings, these added hearings fall most heavily on 

the largc urban municipal courts. 

Finally, municipal court officials reported that strike defendants arc much lcss likely to 

plead guilty to a charge in municipal court, having the case proceed to superior court instead. 

hta from thc municipal courts show that second and third strike cases have a different 

disposition pattcrn than all felonies combincd. As secn in Table 13, second and third strike cases 

are much morc likely to be sent to superior court for ad.judication, and much lcss likely to be sent 

to that court for sentencing after a plea has been acccpted in municipal court. Strike eases are 

also much less likcly to be reduced or dismissed in municipal court. 

TABLE 13 

Ril UNI CI PA L C 0 U li T DI S 1'( 1 SI TI ON S 

LOS .4NGELES COUNTY 

Disposition All Felonies Second Strikes 

Scnt to Superior Court for 40"/;, 65% 

nd iud ic:it ion 

I'lcct guilb, sent to Superior Court for 

scntcncing T 2 1 '3010% 

Third Strikes 11 

(hcc a strike casc reaches superior court, officials reportcd that defendants continued to 

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of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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press thcir cases to trial." The data in Tahlc I1 supports this. The pcrcentagc of second strike 

dcfendants pleading guilty declined from 77 percent in 1992 to 60 pcrcent in 1994, and the third 

strikc defendants decreased from 64 percent in 1092 to 41 percent in 1994. 

Thcse results are supported from other data from the county. While five percent of nonstrike cases have been going to trial in Los Angela County, 14 percent of second strike cases, 

and 13 percent of third strike cases are tried." The number of felony jury trials in Superior Court 

rose from 2,331 in 1993 to 2,776 in 1 995." However, this number has now declined as shown 

earlier in Table 10. 

The supei-lor court bench is made up of 238 judges 

.. 

,, Adininistrntive Oftice of the Courts. srtp'tr note 32. 

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T,-\RLE 14 

ADJUDICATION TY I'E ANI) TIME TILL AADJUI)ICATION 

1992 ANI) 1991 COHORTS 

~ 

Plcad Guilty 

Found Guilt) 

t 1992 I 1994 

~ 

6OYO 

10% 

--n, /i n 

Court Disposition 

Secant1 Strike Cases 

r)lsnllsscd 

Not Guilty 

r)lsnllsscd I S'"n I236 

Not Guilty 

Plcad Guilty 

Found Guilty 

I'cndlng 

hiding 

I S'"n I236 

64% 41% 

30"O 

13""" 1 ??n* * 

I%* I 

Plcad Guilty 

Found Guilty 

I'cndlng 

I ",A* * 

64% 41% 

30"O 

13%" 1 ??n* * 

1-3 months 

4-6 months 

7-9 months 

10- I2 months 

I2 morlths 

Not Guilty 

7770 IO",O 

1 J'.!,o 35% 

570 1 I",;, 

5 :i, 

40,; 1 1% 

____ 

1-3 months 5hq0 14% 

Time Till Disposition 

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has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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Strike cases (as expectcd) arc taking longer to prosecute. Data from thc two sample 

grt3ups presented in Table 12 show, for example, that nearly three times as many bvo and three 

strike cases were pending aftcr one year in the 1993 group comparcd to the potential strike cases 

from 1992. Data provided by the district attorneys officc show that, while strike cases make up 

only I3 pcrccnt of all fclony filings in Superior Court, thcy comprised 30 percent of a11 felony 

cases pending in the court in September 1996 and make up half the trials." 

As a result of the initial increase in the number ofjury trials, the superior court was 

forced to dclay civil trials. Approximately 420 civil trials were postponed from their scheduled 

date during FY 1994-95 so that judges assigned to the civil division could take criminal trials.'* 

Not only does such a delay diminish the importance of civil justice, it also creates a serious 

logistical problem for security in courtrooms and buildings designed for civil trials. 

Thc incrcascd number ofjury trials has led to a 15 percent rise in the number ofjurors 

summoncd for jury duty, leaving court officials to struggle to find space to put the extra jurors. 

Officials also reported that with the larger jury pools required for strike cascs, juror frustration 

hx yronm as ;z higher percentage of summoned jurors arc nexr selected to serve on a casc. 

The district attorneys' office is reyuircd under the law to research prior convictions to 

dctcrrnine if they qualifq. as strikes. This task can ht: particularly timc consuming when checking 

out-of-county or out-of-statc convictions. Thc check in\dvcs looking at more than just thc 

of'tcnsc that the person \vas convicted of, but at the details of the offensc. For example, since 

rcsidcntial hurglary qu;ilifies as 3 prior strikc but commercial burglary does not, and the prior 

con\.iction oftcnsc on the criminal record \vould simply read '-burglary." more investigation is 

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necessary. All of this must be complcted before thc new case is even filed. With the high 

volume ofstrikc cast‘s that are filed in Los Angeles Chin&, this task has added substantially to 

the uwkload of the district attorney’s office. 

The initial increasc in the number of preliminary hcarings and trials has also placed 

increased dcmands on the district attorneys. Preparation for both preliminary hearings and trials 

takes longer in strike cascs than non-strike cases, and as one supcwising district attorney noted, 

conducting these hearings represents the biggest expeiise to the office in terms of lamyer time. 

The public defender’s office in Los Angelcs County represents defcndants in 67 pcrcent 

of all felony cases, but 76 percent of all strike cases. As with the deputy district attorneys. 

assistant public defenders are spending much more time prcparing for and having preliminary 

hearings and trials associated with strike cases. The office has calculated that the strike law has 

led to :in 18 pcrcent increase in the hours spent in investigations to prepare for the additional 

trials, 3 15 percent increase in the workload of the paralegal staff to investigate prior convictions, 

and an 8 pcrccnt increase in the ivorklnad of clerical staff. ilftcr the law‘s enactment, 36 new 

1:1\\? crs Lverc added to a pre-strike staff of 560 attnmcys, but 20 of these new positions were later 

lost in budget cu tbacks. 

I’uhlic defenders in 1,os Angles County have ccpcricnced increased stress le\.els since the 

strikc la\v took effect, according to officials in that office. Lvith many attorneys asking to be 

rclici cd of felony trials and transfcrrcd tu misdcmcanor courts. The attorneys also rcport a 

chnnsc in thcir rc1:itionships Lvith clients as their clients h1:ime them for the harsh penalties they 

arc t;icing. This hx Icd to an increase in the nuinbcr of complaints about public dcfendcrs tilcd 

niih thc hx h! dcfcndmts and thcir familia. It has also led to lanmits filed against thc office 

hq clicnth. ,Ind c\.cn reported ass:iults on public dcfcndcrs. 

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has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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As soon as the strike law was enacted, Lns Angclcs County criminal justice s>-steni 

officials began coordinating cfforts to respond to the cffccts of thc new hv. The Countyvidc 

Criminal Justice Coordination Committee (a group composed of high-levcl county criminal 

justice officials from all relevant agencies) that meets oncc a month to coordinate the activities of 

the criminal justice system, established several subcommittees to anal)m and monitor the impact 

of the law. These subcommittees were instrumental in hclping the system document the changes 

that \vue taking placc, and to plan responses to meet challenges posed by the implementation of 

the strike law. 

One of the responses thc system dcveloped was to expand and improve an Early 

Ilisposi tion Program in thc county’s municipal courts. Senior level deputy district attorneys and 

assistant public dcfendcrs review felony cases coming into the municipal court, identifying those 

that might be easily resolved at an early point. Once the hvo parties agree on those cases. the 

prctriril services program conducts an cxtcnsive record check of the dcfcndants. who arc then 

brought bcforc thc court within 48 hours of thc initial municipal court appearance for a 

disposition hcaring. t-2 version of this program had becn operating in some of the county’s 24 

municipal courts beforc the strikc lau., but it did not exist in the Isrgcst municipal court, which 

hmdlcs half of thc felony cases filed in thc counQ. A year after itnplcmcntation of the program 

in that court. approximately 220 casts pcr nionth were reaching cxly resolution. 

A second rcsponsc is a Ilclay Reduction Program, Lvhich began in March 1096. This 

prc’:r;irn in\,L)l\.cs a concertcd cffort by superior and municipal court judges to process cascs in an 

cxpdicnt inmncr. Under thc program. prospccti\.re attorncys must provide assurance at the 

oiitsct that thcy 1~ ill bc able to proceed to trial Ivithin 60 days of superior court arraignmcnt. 

-l‘iiosc ho c:innot. ;ire not appointed. Thc program also limits the numhcr of cnntinusnccs, 

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has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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requires that all prctrial motions bc made in \vriting. and that disclosure ofdisco\~xy materials he 

madu at least 30 dajvs before the trial. The program's goal, based on standards of the American 

Bar Association, is to have 90 perccnt of cases rcsolved in the first 120 days. 

Thc impact that these Wo programs -which are ainicd at all felony cases, not just those 

that are strikes -has becn dramatic. In July 1995, thcre were 3,500 felony cascs pending in 

Superior Court, the highest number ever. By March 1996, the inventory of pending cascs was 

cut to 2,700. By June 1996, it was down to 2,100 cases, and in January I997 to 1,800. 

Furthcrmore. in July 1995 thcre were 1,300 cases on the superior court calendar that were ovcr 

I20 days old. By January 1997, there were only 600 such cases. In July 1995, up to 30 percent 

of ci~ il court time was being spcnt conducting criminal trials. By January 1997. this figure had 

hcen cut to four percent. 

While ncither of these prograins directly addressed strike cases, the philosophy of the 

oflTcicils \\ho planncd and implcmentcd thcm mas that the problcins hrought about b), the strike 

c'iccs \\~)uld to an cutent, take care of themselves if the system could de\clop more efficient 

proccssing of all C~SCS 

11. The Georgia Experience 

,A. .4pp[icution of'thc Lmu 

;\s notcd. thc Georgia strike law took effect January 1, 1995. More than two years latcr, 

sfatc officials ~vcrt' raising concerns that judges and prosecutors were not following the 

mandator); proijisions ofthc law in a number ofcascs. In fact, a March 1097 rcvicw tq. the State 

13oard ot'1';irctons and Paroles of the more than 600 strike offense convictions (ohtaincd to that 

datc). re\calcd that in 80 of thcsc cascs. thc offcndcr rcccivcd less than the mandatory prison 

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term.i’ The statc’s attorney general notificd the judges and prosccutors involved in thcse cases, 

yet in only bvo cases \yere sentences changed. In the remaining cases, prosecutors cithcr rcduced 

thc chargcs to a non-strikeable offense and maintained the original scntcncz, or made no change 

A number of rcasons for failing to impose the mandatory prison terms uwc providcd by 

those involved. Some judges and prosecutors claimed that they simply did not know of the 

existence of the law, or in the rush of moving cases through the system they forgot about the 

mandatory scntencing provisions.h’ 

There wxrc other, more practical reasons offered. Some prosecutors noted that the cases 

were not strong enough to bring bcforc a jury so they prcscntcd plea agrecrnents that involved 

lesser sentences for strike offenses. As one prosecutor noted: 

-'Everything is not so simple that it can bc put into littlc pigeonholes and 

categories. Wo have to look at all aspects of a casc . . . the type of 

witncsscs, the type of victim. I-Iow good is the evidence? Evcry case has 

its own unjquc aspccts.-’h2 

()thc.r prosecutors thought the sentcnccs wcrc too harsh. One prostcutor, in cxplaining why he 

did not scck thc mandatory 1 0-ycar sentcnccs for twn first-time-offending youths convicted of 

mncd robber)., notcd that: 

”Wc didn’t wmt to dcstroy and crush thcm with ii 1 0-ycar scntcnce. We 

wrc tving to scr\e.justicc in this casc, and somctimcs we think justice 

his to bc tempcrcd with mcrcy if it is to be rcal j~isticc.”~’ 

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One judge noted his displeasure with the law, stating that: 

"[tlhcre's always an exception to the rulc, and the judge ought to ha\.c 

some discretion to modify it. 'The legislation is taking the judge out of thc 

loop in scntencing, and I don't like it."h'' 

This sentirncnt was echoed by one judge interviewed by the research team who expressed the 

bclief that the possibility of parole should cxist in most sentences to give the offender an 

incentive to participatc in rchabilitation programs while in prison. 

H Tlw Expcricncc ojj'Thrce Counties 

Tracking the impact of the strike law on local courts in Gcorgia was much more 

problematic due to the lack of available data. While the strike law in California was the subject 

of many studies and reports at both state and local levels, similar efforts have not taken place in 

Georgia. lt is undcrstandablc that gi\m the much more narrow scope of thc law in Georgia, 

officials did not expect the kind of impact that California officials projected, and thus have not 

hccn focuscd on dncumcnting its local impact. As with California. \ve attempted to make pre and 

post law comparisons on a number of court processing measures 

As noted in the discussion of impact in California, one expectation of the strike law is 

that it \vi11 change pretrial relcasc decision making -,judscs will be more inclined to hold 

dcfcndants hcforc trial out of concerns of highcr risks offlight bccausc of the severity of the 

potcntial prison terms. In Georgia, bail is Qpically set at the municipal court level. €lowever, 

undcr Gcorgia prctrial release statutes, only superior court judges can set hail for a number of 

scrious offenses, including all sc\m of the strik~s.~' 

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has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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Tablc I5 shows that officials’ assumptions about the cxtcnt of the impact nere wcllgrounded. As the table sholvs, strike cases make up n very small proportion of all felonies filed 

in Superior Court in Chatham, IkKalh, and Fulton Counties. In none of the thrcc counties did 

the numbcr of strike cases excecd seven percont of the total of all felonies filcd. Furthermore, 

when strike charges are filed, the overwhelming majority (90%) are first strikes. Table 16 

shows that the majority of the first strike cases were for the crimes of armcd robbery (55%), 

followed by murder (1 7%), and rape (1 6%). As will be the case for the rcmainder of the tables 

shown in this chapter, there is no value or purpose of showing thc results of the two strikes 

analysis as thc numbcr of cases are two few for meaningful comparisons by the three counties. 

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TABLE 15 

Felony Filings 

Strike Cases 

First Strikc Cascs 

Percent That Are Strike Cases 

Pcrccnt That Are First Strike Cascs 

Pcrcrnt of Strike Cases that are First Strike Cases 

COMI’AKISON OF FIRST rfND SECOND STRIKE CASES TO 

TOTAL FELONY FILlNGS IN THE THREE COUNTIES 

2,399 5,532 8,45 1 16,392 

89 129 156 3 71 

81 126 I28 338 

7% 5 Yo 4 YO 2% 

4% 2 O/O 2 Y” 2 Y’n 

94% 98% 82% 90% 

I Chatbam DeKalb I Fulton I Totals I I I I 

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TABLE 16 

FIRST STKTKE OFFENSES HY CHARGE 

IN THE THREE GEORGIA COUNTIES 

Crime Type Chat ham DeKaib Fulton Total 

As to the impact of thc law on bail-sctting practices of superior court,judgcs, as Table 17 

shows, thcrc wcrc no mzijor diffcrcnccs in the pcrcentage of defendants detaincd in cach of thc 

thrcc countics over the two samplc periods. Table I8 explores this furthcr by examining thc 

rcasons for dctcntion for those Lvho remained dctaincd. Thcrc was very littlc diffcrcnce in the 

reasons for detention hctwccn the prc and post strike law timc pcriods, in both Chatham County 

and 1kK;alh Counties. Most dcfcndants nwc hcld without bail. i-To\t:e\u, thcrc was a major 

incroasc in thc percentage of f’irst strike dcfcndants hcld Lvithout bond in Fulton County in 1996. 

This trend may he cxplincd by the fact that there \vas a largc number of dcfcndants for whom 

thc rcastm for detention \vas unknmvn in that comb’ in 1994. f<cgardIcss. thc number of cases 

;Ire so small to hc of littlc ifan), significancc. 

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TABLE 17 

89.; 

KUMREK ANI) PERCENT OF DEFENDANTS C H A R G E D W I T H A FIRST STRIKE 

DETALNED IN THE THREE GEORGIA COUKTlES 

3 8% 

TABLE 18 

REASON FOR DETENTION OF THE FIRST STRIKE CASES 

IN THE THREE GEORGIA COUNTIES 

Reason for NonRelease 

Held W/O Bvnd 

Percentage 

Could not Post Bail 

Percentace 

Chat h am 

.-GlGT 

56 I55 

8lY" I 83Yo 

=I 10?6 11YO 

DeKalb 

1994 

70 

92?0 

6 

Fulton 

~ 1996 

77 I22 

92% 35% 

1996 

35 

63% 

18 

33% 

It w;is also expcctrd, as \viis found to be the case in California. that defendants lacing 

strike charges n.ould demand trials as the only way to avoid the long mandatory sentences. 

I-lo\vcver, since thc strike offcnses in Georgia include only \'cry serivus charges (offcnscs that 

uuuld bring long scntcnces evcn \.\;ithout the strike law), these cases ~vould have in all likelihood 

gem to trial anj.\vay. Since the Georgia court data on the Qpes of cases going tu trial \vas 

un;i\,ai lahlc, examincd adjudiciition outcomes for the two groups in the three counties. 

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'Tablc 19 s1iou.s that there lvere little differences in adjudication ~pcs in the thrcc 

counties during both periods. The only ma.ior differcnce is the substantially highcr perccntagc of 

Dismissed 22 25 

28% 30% 

Not Guilty 2 3 

3 Yo . 3% 

Pled 47 32 

Guilty 5WO 50% 

Found 6 10 

Gui 1 ty 8 Yo 12% 

Pending** 1 1 

1 Yo 1 Yo 

cases that \vcre still pcnding in Fulton County after tsvo yeas from the I996 group."' 

53 58 61 40 

46% 47% 4,Y% 32% 

6 4 4 5 

5 yo 3 Yo 3?6 4% 

44 46 45 34 

3 8% 3 7% 3 5% 27% 

10 6 9 4 

7% 5 yo 706 3 %J 

0 5 2 34 

-- 4% 2% 27% 

TABLE 19 

COURT DISI'OSITIONS OF ONE AND TWO STRIKE CASES 

IN THE THREE GEOIIGIA COUNTIES 

I'nhlc 20 shmvs that the pcrccntagc of cases taking more than one year to reach 

disposition more than doubled in Fultnn County in the 1996 samplc for first strikers: while the 

disposition tiincs did not vary significantlJ* in Chatham and IkKalb Countics. In interl.iews, 

court ofticicils in Fultnn County notcd that cases have becn taking longcr to reach disposition in 

thc past fen \.cars, hut attributed this to factors other than the strike 1xv. One explanation 

Id< 1 lie C;ISC?; \LC'I-C trucked through the end of October. 199s. nieaning the pending cases had been open forat lt?'l<I 113 molitlls. 

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rcpcatedly givcn was that nhcn thc Olympic Gamcs cnded in Atlanta in 1995, police nho had 

21 

3 1% 

7 

90.0 

bccn prcnccupied in planning for thc Games, returned to the streets and incrcased thc number of 

arrcsts. Hut hcrc again, the number of cases affected is too small to be of significancc. 

TABLE 20 

19 

2 3 9.0 

12 

1496 

TIME TO ADJUDICATION 

IN THE THREE GEORGIA COUNTIES 

I6 

2 1 '1.b 

11 First Strikes 

19 

2 3 

1-3 months 

441 

7.1 

months 

4-6 months 

7-9 months 

59% IO?" 3 1 (',u 

8.4 8.2 9.3 

months months months 

10-12 months 

13-27 months 

22 months 

Average time 

to dimosition 

1 89/41 

18 

23% 

8.2 I 8.1 

months months 

24 

2 27 -1 I 18Yo 23 I 29O.u 35 I 2 1 4; I I 1 

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CHAPTER 6 

THE IMPACT ON LOCAL JAILS 

I. Introduction 

Concerns were raised in a number of jurisdictions, and cspecially California, that passage 

of the new laws would result in a crowding situation for the jails due to a number of factors 

associated with the law’s provisions. First, the pretrial population might well increase as fewer 

dcfendants who are charged and detained under the three strikes provisions are unable to secure 

pretrial release. Second, these same inmates might be less likely to plea bargain their cascs and 

request a jury trial. Since jury trials take a much longer period to complete, the average length of 

stay for these inmates in prctrial status may well also increase. It may also be true that if the new 

law is impacting the state prison system, there may be undue delays in how quickly inmatcs who 

have been convicted for these crimes are transported from the county jail system to the state 

prison. 

Finally, from a jail managcrnent perspective, threc strikes inmates could pose a higher 

sccurity risk. nhich may require higher security supervision. One could argue that three strike 

inmatcs might he morc likely to attempt escape knowing that if convicted they would receive a 

lifc scntcnce and transfer to a more securc statc prison. After conviction and while awaiting 

transfcr to the statc prisons, these inmates might prove to be disruptive and possibly violent 

given that they would have little to gain by conforming to the rules ofjail. 

In this section of the rcport \ve examine the impact of the new legislation in California 

snd Gcorgia. 

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11. Impact in California 

Fifb-seven of California’s 58 counties operate one or more jail facilities. Approximately 

70,000 inmates inhabit these .jails on any given day. As expccted, thc Los Angles County system 

is the state’s and probably the nation’s largest jail system (along with New York City) housing 

over 20,000 inmates on any given day. Twenty-six of the state’s jails arc either in litigation or 

under court order because of jail overcrowding, representing 74 percent of the state’s average 

daily jail population. Many of these jails must restrict admissions or implement early release 

measures because of overcrowding problems. 

Whcn the California strikes law was passed, many of the counties expressed some of the 

concerns raised above. In order to track the impact of the law on the jails, the California Board 

of Corrections conducted a survey in 1996 of 15 jails representing two thirds of the state jail 

inmate population. EIowcver, in reporting thcst: findings. it must be cmphasized that much of the 

data are either cstimatcs or self-reported by jail officials with no independent verification of the 

key statistics. 

With respect to overcrowding. the survey showed that the average length of stay for 

pretrial detainccs had risen from approximately 44 days on March 1, 1994 (just hcforc the strike 

law took cffcct) to 50 days on January 1. 1995, and to 51 days on January 1, 1996. ‘The same 

sur\q showed that the average lcngth of stay for prctrial detainccs am-aiting trial for a third strike 

was 205 days.h7 ‘Ihcre was insufficient data to determine whcthcr thc new law was having an 

ad\ crsc impact on jail operations. However, it was noted that some jurisdictions. cspccially 1,os 

/lnglcs Count).. had adopted a policy of classi~ing all Mo and threc strikc inmates as maximum 

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custody and segregating them from the other inmate population. Thcsc administrative decisions 

were obviously having an impact on jail management. 

In support of the survey self-rcport data, state-level jail population data show an increase 

in the size of the pre-trial population (Table 21). However, one must also note that the 

increases observed betweon 1991 and 1996 were consistent with a historical increase that began 

as late as 1988 -well before the three strikes law was adopted. 

show a slight decline. 

Furthermore, the 1998 data 

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‘I’AllLE 21 

AVERAGE DAILY I’OI’ULI~TION OF UNSENTENCED INMATES 

IN CALIFORNIA JAILS 

1986- 1 998 

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Collecti\xly, these trends suggest that the three strikes law may be contributing moderatcly to the 

overcrwvding situation. \$'hen looking at indivicfual counties, however, it becomes clear that the 

new law's impact on the jails varies largely in part to how vigorously the local district attorney 

applies the law. 

San Francisco illustrates how fluctuations in the pretrial population cannot be linked to 

the new law. It will be recalled that the strike law could not have an impact on the jail 

population as the law was rarely invoked by the district attorney. Nonetheless, there was an 

increase in the proportion of inmates held at pretrial reaching a peak of 90 percent in 1991 and 

then declining sharply thereafter. These iluctuations may be related to actions taken by the 

county in response to a long-standing lawsuit on jail crowding and nothing to do with three 

strikes and you're out." Currently, sentenced inmates are serving an average of 55 percent of 

their sentences before being granted early release by the sheriff. 

The Los Angeles County jail system also saw its pre adjudicated population rise from 59 

percent of the total population just before the third strike law took effect to 70 percent within 18 

months after the law's enactment."q Because the number of cases bring prosecuted under the 

new law \vert so much larger in this county, it's more likely that it would have an impact on jail 

overcrowding. 

The iirst explanation is that jail admissions and those linked to the three strikes law may 

have increased. Table 23 shows that while three and tlvo strike bookings have steadily increascd 

since 1903. the total number of pretrial bookings have actually declined substantially since 1994 

The count! jail is a 2.600 bed tacilit> that is under court order to cap its population at 90 percent, or h 4 

2.3 4 0 in 111 at e s . 

6CJ. rhe count> jail systeiii. Lchich is under couit ordered population ceilings. holds an average of 19.000 to 

2 0.000 i 11 in t e s . 

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from 212,140 to 375,158 in 212,140 to 175,155 in 1998. Moreover, three and two strike 

bookings together represent less than five percent of total bookings. Therefore, it does not 

appear that substantially more pretrial detainees are being admitted to jail as a result of the strike 

law. 

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TAIILE 22 

AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY IN CALIFORNIA JAILS 

.Jurisdiction 

SltIlc\\ IJC 

Lo< lrl~clcs 

Kcrn 

Sa1 Fraricisco 

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 

15 I I6 3 17 X I9 2 20.2 21.59 24 4 

30 I 31 5 31.X 31 9 34 1 35.3 NA 

21 1 22 '1 I9 7 22 1 19 0 25 I h' /\ 

11 1 10 0 12 8 15.7 15 3 13.7 N 

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The second potential explanation \vould he that the strikers have a longer length of stay 

Pretrial Status 19W-1998 

L.A.C.J. 

( icncral t'npiilation -3s days 

:IL' Slrike Bookings 185 cia> 5 

As shown in Table 34, second and third strike inmates have substantially longer lengths of stay at 

I998 1998 1998 Law 

L.A.C.J Bookings ADP Impact 

44 clays 167.364 20.1 62 NA 

159 cia>-s 1 .'I45 848 613 

the jail than the total inmate population. However, the key question of what their length of stay 

would have been absent the new law cannot be answered by these data. It's likely that at a 

minimum, they would have spent at least the 1998 average length of stay. Even uith this 

conservative estimate, the most that one could attribute to the new law would be approximately 

1,800 inmates or about 10 pekent of the inmate population. This is not a small number, but one 

must he reminded that without a matched pre-law comparison group, it's not possible to make a 

definitive conclusion regarding the laws's impact because other factors may be confounding the 

analysis. 

TABLE 23 

COMPARISON OF LOS ANGELES COlJNTY JAIL BOOKINGS 

I Year 1994 I 1995 1996 I 1997 I 1908 II 

Total Hooked 2 12. I40 192.302 I92.SY6 188.773 175,158 

3' Strike. Booking 1,587 1.705 I .948 2.057 

Pcrc cn t 0.81w I .oo 0.90,v I .O?h 

(1 2'" Strike Bookings I 3.435 I 4.064 I 5.767 I 5.809 I 5.737 11 

TABLE 2-1 

AVERAGE LEIVGTH OF STAY (L.A.C.J.) Ilk' STATUS 

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For cxarnplc, with a federal court-imposed cap on the population on the count).'s jail 

facilities, thcjail must release inmates when thc population exceeds the cap. As a result, 

offcndcrs sentenced to serve time in the county jail currently werc sewing only 35 percent of 

their sentences three years after the law uent into effect. In addition, persons arrested on 

misdemeanor charges without a warrant are no longer accepted into the jail. 

This situation exists in Kern County. Before the strike law took effect, the jail population 

u as comprised of approximately 60 percent sentenced and 40 percent unsentenced inmate^.^" 

Thc composition is currently reversed, as the pretrial detainee population has increased with the 

rise in thc number of trials. However, it's difficult to link this change to the new law. There are 

six facilities in the county jail system. One of those jails had been under a consent decree for 

many ycars due to overcrowding, but that dccree n-as dissolvcd in 1996 as the jail population was 

brought down just as the new law was taking effect. Here again, policy actions associated with 

cvternal factors are probably more responsible for the changes in the jail population as opposed 

to the law itself. 

111. Impact on Jails in Gcorgia 

Information from Georgia is instructi\.e as it shows thc same trends as California. All 

thrcc Gcorgia counties includcd in this study ha1,c cxpericnced rising jail populations. DeKalb 

Count?, for es:implc, has secn its jail population grow by about one-third since January 1995. 

u hcn the law took effect (data before this date wcre not available from the jail). Charts 1 and 2 

summarize the average daily population. admissions. and a\*erage length of stay. These three 

rnd~c~itors shou a steady increase since the law took effect. Moreover since there are no pre 1995 

dih c~\~~lhle for this county, it's not possible to make any conclusions regarding the law's 

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impact . 

Chatham and Fulton County u.cre able to provide pre and post 1995 jail population data 

(Charts 3,4, and 5). As shown in Chart 3, Chatham County has witnessed a steady rise in its jail 

population sincc 1988 dcspitc a substantial dccrease in its admissions from 1989 through 1993. 

The 1995 through 1998 increase is significant but simply cannot he associated with the strikes 

law. The county reports 14,000 to 17,000 admissions per year while the number of tw-o and one 

strikes cases is less than 100 cases per year. 

Fulton County jail experienced a steady rise in average daily population rates between 

1957 and 1995. and then a sharp increase beginning in 1996. This pattern may be explained by a 

similarly large increase in the number ofjail admissions beginning at the same time, and to a 

lesser extent, a more gradual increase in averagc Icngth of stay (see Chart 5). 

In summary there are four ma-jor reasons why the increase in the jail populations cannot 

bc attributed to the ncw strikes law adopted in 1995. First and most significantly, there are not a 

large number of strike cases coming into the system. The three largest counties received only an 

estimated 71 6 strike cases in all of 1996 (see Table 17). 

Second, since the Georgia strikeable offenses are all very serious, most defendants 

charged with these oflenses were being detained pretrial both before and alter the strike law was 

cnxtcd in both DeKalb and Chatham Counties. Moreover, in Fulton County, more strike 

dcfcndants \vue actually being released in the 1996 group than in the 1994 group. 

Third, in two of the counties - IkKalb and Chatham - there has not been a major 

diffcrcncc in the time taken to aci.judicatc thcsc cases, and thus thc time spcnt in pretrial 

detention, both before and after the strike law took effect. As shown in Chapter 1. only Fulton 

County expericnced a dramatic increase in the percent of cases taking longer than one year to 

adjudicate. In interviews with system officials, however, this increase was attributed to an 

incrcasc in the number of arrests that occurred after the completion of the Atlanta Olympic 

Gaincs in the siimmcr of 1996, a view that is bornc out try looking at hokvjail admissions soared 

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in Fulton beginning in 1996. 

Fourth, it is clcar from the Chatham County and Fulton County average daily population 

data that the steady growth in the jail population in those two jurisdictions traces back to at least 

the late 1980s. 

Figure 1 

DeKalb County 

Jail Admissions and ADP - 1995 to 1998 

3500 - 

3000 v. - -__ 2500 ---- 

2000 

1500 Population 

- 1000 

500 

0 -- 

95 96 97 98 

Year 

Admission - - ADP 

Figure 2 

DeKalb County 

Average Length of Stay - 1995 to 1998 

30 

25 

20 

Days 15 

10 

5 

0 

1995 1996 1997 1998 

Year 

LOS 

Chatham County 

Jail Adrnissio~k~K6d 1988 to 1998 

20,ow 

15.000 

Population 10,000 

5,000 

0 ~- 

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 

Year 

Admissions - - - ADP 

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Figure 4 

Fulton County 

Jail Admissions and ADP - 1987 to 1997 

35000 

30000 

s 25000 

2 15000 

g - _. 20000 - -. 

__ _. a" 10oM) 

a7 00 a9 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 

Year 

Admissions - - ADP 

Figure 5 

Fulton County 

Average Length of Stay - 1987 to 1997 

50 

40 

30 ~~ 

Days 

20 

10 

0 

a7 09 90 91 92 93 94 

Year 

-. - 

_. 

95 96 

.... 

/ 

91 

ALOS 

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CHAPTER 7 

IMI’ACT ON STATE PRISON SYSTEhlS 

I. Introduction 

This chapter reviews the effccts of the three strikes laws on the prison systems. 

As indicated by the national survey data and individual data for the thrce states presented thus 

far, with the exception of California, there has been no effects on prison systems simply because 

the number of inmates sentenced to prison have been so few. Hut as \vi11 be shown in this 

chapter, even though the California Department of Corrections (CDC) has received over 45.000 

inmates to date (most of kvhom are two strike cascs), the law has not had the impact policy 

makers had projected with respect to prison overcrowding and prison operations. 

11. Projected Versus Observed Population Projections 

Both Washington and California made formal impact assessments of how the new laws 

would impact the prison population. As shown below, while Washington projected a much 

lo\icr impact than California, both proved to be too high, as the courts found numerous ways to 

circumLent the law’s intent, as reported in Chaptcr 1. 

,1 Wushington Stritc 

Fkhveen Dcccmhcr 1993 when thc Washington law took cffcct and May 3 1, 1997, only 

07 offcndcrs wre admitted to the Washington State prison systcm on their third strike, compared 

to thc 120 to 225 that had been prqjcctcd.” Planners in Washington had cvpected that between 

40 and 75 pcrsons mould fall undcr thc thrce strike provisions each ycar. Evcn this low 

projcction has not been met, with mnnthlq admissions ranging from zcro to six inmates, 

a\.craging only 2.1 offcndcrs per month, in thc first thrco-and-one-half years of the laivs 

V, ash iiigton Departnirnt of Correct iotis. 71 

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existence. 

State officials attribute this difference bchvcen the observcd and pro-icctcd commitment 

rates primarily to the fact that the original prqjcctions were based upon thc number of prior 

incarcerations and convictions for strikeable offenses, rather than the number of offcnders 

sentcnccd for strikes. The pro-jections were also overestimated because the preliminary 

definitions as to what would constitute a strike were vague. The original projections anticipated 

that prior convictions for drug trafficking would constitute strikes, hut the law as implemented 

did not include any drug-rclated offenses as strikes. The Washington Department of Corrections 

has not recalculated the pro-jected impact of the law, hut expect the current rate of admissions to 

continue. 

R Crrlijbrniu 

California officials also overestimated the impact of its strike law on the prison system. 

Although thc sheer number of cascs sentenced under the law are significantly higher than for any 

other state, the numbers are not nearly as great as originally projected.” Thc first CI>C 

population pro-jcction considered the impact of the strike law when it was still being considered 

by the state Icgislature. This projection asserted that the institutional population would more 

than double mithin a six-year period, from 120,179 in January 1994 to 245,554 inmates by 

Ilccembcr 1999 (Tablc 25).” 

Very quickly, the CIX hcgan to ad-just downward the projcctcd impact of the strike law. 

When rebiscd figurcs uere calculated in the Fall of 1994, the five-year projection was rcduccd by 

”This analysis is not intended to be a criticism of CDC population projections methodology. The CDC 

projections are used to illustrate the gross over-estimation of the impact of the California strike law. 

Calitornia Depai-tinent of Corrections. (Spring 199.1) Popi/u/iou F‘rojec~i117.s, /YW-/ YY9 (/tic/i/di,ig 7: 

C p/1uL, /or Ti7rw Strikes LOU~). 

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17,2 18 inmates. As socn in Table 25, with each successi1.e biannual population pro.jcction, the 

CDC has lowcrcd its estimation of the impact of the strike law. The most recent 1998 projection 

is now equivalent with the original 1995 with both of them showing a projected inmate 

population of approximately 170.000 by 1999. 

Table 25 shows the number of CDC admissions for second and third strike offenders by 

month. As expected, there was a dramatic increase in the first 12 months that the law was in 

effect, but the number of admissions has levcled off and even declined slightly. 

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This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report
TABLE 25 

C A I,I FORNI A PRISON POPU1,ATION PROJECTIONS - 199 

Spring I994 

Projcctioris 

1’:111 1993 Spring 1994 I+/ Iiirpuct of Spring I995 Spriiig 19YG Spring 1997 

Year Projection‘ I’rojcctions’ A13 971‘ I’rojection’ Projection‘ I’rojection5 

1-1998 

Spring 19~8 

Prpjection 

155,276 

161,366 

I 70,IO 1 

179,065 

188.033 

196.90 1 

41,625 

Iliffcrence: 

Spring I998 

- Earliest 

Projection 

w/ AB 971 

-29,430 

-54.366 

-75.4.53 

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TABLE 26 

NlJhIBER OF SECOND AND THIRD STRIKE CASES 

ADhIITTED TO CDC BY hlONTH 

II I 1994 I 1995 I 1996 I 1997 I I998 II 

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has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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This parallels the pattern of a leveling off at prison admissions for all offenders that the CDC had 

experienced prior to the implementation of the strike law.7‘ 

The primary cause of the missed projections appears to be that planners miscalculated how 

judges would sentence second strikers. Under California law, when sentencing an offender, the 

court may choose a sentence that fills within three ranges: low, mid, and high. If the sentencing 

range for an offense was five to ten years, the low end of the range would be live to six years. the 

mid range seven to eight years, and the high end nine to ten years. In making its projections. the 

CDC originally assumed that judges would sentence second strikers at the midpoint of the 

sentencing range provided for each crime within the California Penal Code. However, CDC 

analysis of the sentences imposed on second strikers has shown that approximately 60 percent are 

being sentenced at the low end. The result has been shorter than expected sentence lengths and 

consequently, shorter lengths of stay.7s 

In the interviews with strikers, third strikers who were sentenced during the kirst year the 

law was in effect reported that they were offered no plea bargains, and that they were told by their 

attorneys that they --had” to go the trial. However. many of those more recently sentenced 

Indicdted that they pled guilty in exchange for not counting a prior conviction as a strike, allowing 

for shorter sentence The CDC expects further reductions in the rate of discounting prior 

convictions. This is due to the increased flexibility afforded judges and district attorneys as the 

strike lau IS further interpreted in test cases, and as district attorney offices further retine policies 

on prosecuting strike cases. 

California Department of Corrections. Spri~g lYY4 Pupdu[io/i Prcjjrciio/is. IY94-IYY9 

This may be an esplanation for why second strikers have a much lower trial rate than third strikers 

7-1 

7; 

Second strikers inn) be agreeing to plead guilty in eschange for an agreement that the prosecutor will seek a 

sc‘ritence at the IOU wcI ottlir sciitencing range. 

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111. Who Are Thc Strikcrs? 

Contrasting the attributes of inmates sentenced under the strike laws in California kvith 

those sentenced under a more "traditional" three strikes law like Washington state and Georgia 

illustrates more clearly how each state's strike zone as defined by their laws produces very 

different qpes of offenders sent to prison (Table 27). As expected in Washington, all but three of 

the 97 strike inmates had been sentenced for crimes against persons. In Georgia, all of the 88 cases 

that have been sentenced under the two strikes provision, and the 3,036 cases that have been 

sentenced under the one strike statute have all been for crimes against persons. 

However, the vast majority of California second and third strike inmates have been 

sentenced for nonviolent crimes. Approximately 80 percent of the California two strikers were 

committed for a nonviolent offenses, as well as 60 percent of the three strikers. The fact that so 

many of these offenders have committed non-violent crimes is a reflection of California's law that 

allows for a second or third strike to be imposed for "any felon" if the first or second prior 

conviction was a strikeable offense. 

Table 28 presents a more detailed analysis of the types of offenses for which Calihrnia 

inmates ha\,e heen convicted as either a two or three ~triker.~' The most friequent crime for these 

inmates is drug possession with over 10,000 prison admissions. Over 600 inmates have been 

sentenced to 25 years to life as three strikers for drug possession and another 1,500 for property 

crimes. 

"'The California law requires two strikers to receive sentences twice as long as normally expected and to 

serve 80 percent of their sentences less pretrial custody credits. Three strikers must serve their entire sentences. 

Prior to the La\v's enactinent. iiiiiiates served slightly less than 50 percent of their sentences. 

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TAIILE 27 

Character istic 

1 II ta ke 

.\ver:igr Agc 

Washington Cali Torn ia California Georgia Georgia 

Three Strikes Two Strikes Three Strikes Two Strikes One Strikes 

N O/!O N 7" N %I N Yo N %I 

115 I00 0% 37,27 I IO0 O?h 4.0 I3 100 O?Sl xx I OO.O%, ~.OI(~ 1 oo,wx1 

1X )car3 33 )car\ 30 years 40 years 20 ycars 

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of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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TABLE 28 

U.S. Department of Justice.

of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the

has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report
To understand how lvell the strike li\~ ~vas capturing its target population of violent repeat 

offenders, we compared the demographic and legal characteristics of the strikers to thvse of the 

total CDC population as of June 1996, and to the pre-law CDC population (Table 29). Given the 

broad range of strikeable offenses and the two strike provision of the law, it was anticipated that 

the non-strikers would be comparable with the two strikers, except for the average sentence. This, 

holvever, was not what we fuund. The strikers differed from both the pre-law CDC population and 

the current CDC population with respect to gender, age, race and current offense. As shown in 

Tnhle 29, strikers represented a higher proportion of males, minorities, and property offenders. It 

also appeared that the strikers were younger than the non-strikers (mean age 29 versus 3 1 for the 

total CDC population). 

Another perspective on the types of inmates incarcerated for these crimes comes from the 

CDC classification system. Early on in the study we requested a data file that contained the 

classification data recorded for each inmate at admission. These data are summarized in Table 30. 

Hcre, one can see that the majority of second strikers are either minimum or low medium-custody 

inm:itcs with little history of prior institutional problems (see Table 30). The same basic trend 

exists for third strikers, although a greater proportion are classified in the higher custody levels, 

lurgtly due to their lengthy prison terms. The sentence length is a major dcterrninant of an inmate's 

custody level within CDC. It's also noteivorthy that most ofthese inmates haw no history of 

institutional violence. escape, or major disciplinary problems. Most have less than a high school 

education and most are not married. 

A specid task force WIS created by CDC tu determine nhether the CDC classification systrm 

should bc adjusted to cnsure that strikers are not being over classified. The concern WIS thiit 

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AldlC I I2 c)? 6 I; I 27.: 93 0 2i.ill) 9i 0 3 2411 08 x 

lmalc 

-87- 

7.5X I 6.1 0.744 70 1.34 1 5 0 41 I .1 

(Inder 20 1367 I .h 2.075 IF 2.0-36 75 375 YJ 

I'C1$0ll qo.4 I ') 42 7 

l'r~lpcr1> jO.~).;S 2b.2 

1 )rug\ 2s .I150 1J h 

0llir.r i . >.I ., 6 I 7 -77 

iY.0'9 JI 3 4.704 177 1.21 I 37.6 

-7 >.40.< -_ 7i ..; 10.672 40 2 1.1 1-1 34 5 

37.U2-l 76 4 Y.?bU 31 2 hi4 Iq 7 

[).J27 7 0 2.S7 I IO x 21lb 82 

-- 

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TABLE 30 

CLASSIFICATION ATTRIBUTES OF SECOND AND THIRD STRIKERS 

AS OF MARCH 1,1996 

Custody Level 

Minimum (I) 

Low Mcdium (11) 

High Medium (111) 

Masiniuni (IV) 

Unclassified 

Classificatinn Attrihutes 

No Prior Military Service 

No Fligli School Ikgrec 

Not Married 

No I’rior Assaul1s on Inmates 

Kci I’rior Assaults on Staff 

No I’rtor Escapes 

No I’rior 1)isciplinnrics 

No Current Ihciplinarics 

26.7 

26.7 

21.6 

11.3 

1.7 

91.8 

R3.7 

x2.x 

95.1 

9x.3 

90.2 

99.3 

94.8 

35.0 

39.0 

16.5 

17.1 

24.1 

31.7 

7.4 

96.6 

x2.1 

77.9 

90. I 

95.6 

97. I 

9x.x 

X7.0 

52.2 

51.3 

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has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those

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because of the longer sentences. it-hich is a major determinant of the initial classification decision, 

many ofthe strikers would be over-classified. The Special Task Force concluded that neither the 

current classification instruments nor the process should be modified at this time.77 However. they 

plan to continue closely monitoring the classification system as the hvo and three strikers progress 

through the system.7x 

Finally, lve offer the following case studies to fiirther illustrate the types of crimes these 

strikers are committing (Table 3 1). These five cases were drawn from intemiews (sampling 

procedures are discussed in chapter 4) with inmates and in our estimation, here again, the pattern is 

the same. Inmates sentenced under this law for property crimes have committed relatively minor 

crimes kvhere little if any harm was inflicted upon the victim. Furthermore, these cases are drawn 

from the three striker's population m-hom are expected to reflect the more serious offender. Both 

the qualitative and quantitative data show that most inmates receiving the second and third strike 

sentences do not fit the profile of a violent and habitual offender for whom lengthy imprisonment 

is required. 

UCLA Statistical Consulting Center. ( 1997) "An Evaluation of CDC's Prisoner Classification System, 7: 

Parts I - Ill." Los Anseleh. CA: University ofCalifornia at Los Angeles. 

Calitornia Dtrpitrtiiient of Corrections (May 1997). A Report on the Ininate Classification Svstem. 7x 

Sacrainento. C.4: Evaluation. Compliance and Infoi-mation Systeins Division. 

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TABLE 31 

SELECTED DESCRIPTIONS OF THE CURRENT OFFENSES BY 3 STRIKERS 

CASE DESCRIPTIONS 

Case 1. Person Offense: Car jacking 

While attempting to steal a parked truck, the offender reportedly held the owner at bay with a 

buck knife. He fled on a freeway and was apprehended. No physical injuries or vehicle 

damage was reported. The offender was sentenced to 27 years to life with a minimum term of 

22.95 years. The offender was employed at the time of arrest earning between $300 and $500 

per week net. 

Case 2. Property Offense 1: Possession of cellular telephone to defraud telephone 

The offender was in possession of a cellular phone that when used would he associated with a 

different number and individual. Telephone calls billed to the victim represent the harm 

imposed in this case. The offender will sene at least 25.6 months. The offender \vas employed 

earning $873 each week. 

company 

Case 3. Property Offense 11: Petty Theft 

The offender received a sentence of 27 years to life for attempting to sell stolen batteries to a 

retail merchant. The loss to the victim (cost ofbatteries) is $90. The offender was collecting 

disability pay at the time of arrest. 

Case 4. Drug Offense: Salc of Marijuana 

The offender sold a $5 bag of marijuana to an undercover police officer. The offense did not 

involve harm to person or to property. The offender will be incarcerated for at least live years. 

Ciise 5. Other Offense: Reckless driving, Evading the police 

The offender reportedly rolled his vehicle through a stop sign, panicked when police 

responded, and led police on a one hour chase. He -'decided to ride it out . . . (to) smoke (his) 

cigarettes and run out of gas." Police apprehended the offender after blowing out the tires on 

his vehicle. No \ictim was involved in this case. The offender received a sentence of25 years 

to life of urhich he must serve twenty. He was employed earning $1.000 per week net. 

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IV. Impact on the California Department of Corrections Operations 

This sections addresses how the California law impacted the CDC’s operations. 

Clearly, there was no need to make a similar detailed assessment for Georgia and Washington 

state. Nonetheless, for the record, our conversations with Georgia and Washington state officials 

confirm our conclusion that the effects of the law on prison operations have been non 

consequential. 

A. Impact on Institutionid Progrumming 

Both the CDC administrators and institutional staff reported that the strike populations 

have had little to no effect on the institutional programming or management. For example, no 

additional programs have been developed or are planned for the third strike populations and the 

strikers are governed by the same set of institutional policies as non-strikers. Thus, third strikers 

have access to all of the same programs, services, and privileges as comparable non-strikers. 

Intervielved staff reported that they did not know the strikers from the non-strikers. Most do not 

ask inmates for their commitment offense or their sentence; thus they have no way of knowing 

n ho is a striker. 

Staff also reported that no additional programming slots or ivork opportunities have been 

generated to accommodate the increasing institutional population. In fxt, some programs have 

been curtailed because of budget cuts. Both stat” and inmates said that there were hot enough work 

or programming slots for all inmates who were willing to participate. Strikers indicated that they 

art‘ often the last to get jobs or programming slots because of their long sentences. This trend is 

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not expected to change given the cuts to the CDC budget by legi~lature.’~ 

The strikers had little concept ofholv they would spend the duration of their sentences. 

Few for example, had plans of participating in programs or pursuing institutional jobs. Only one 

was attending substance abuse treatment. Some indicated an interest in moving to another facility, 

but their motivations for transferring were to be closer to home, better institutional conditions, or a 

lotk-er custody level. Few sought a transfer to another facility in order to participate in a particular 

vocational training program or institutional job: instead, the focus was on their appeals and/or a 

favorable court ruling. 

B. Impuct on Institutiond Infiuctions 

The general consensus among the CDC administrative and i stitutional si ff i nt ervi ewed 

was that the strikers are no more difficult to manage than non-strikers and that there is no 

difference in compliance between second and third strikers. a finding that is not unusual since 

institutional staff are generally not aware of who are the strikers versus the non-strikers. When 

asked specifically about such problems as gang activity, drug use/trafficking, disruptive behavior, 

inmate-on-inmate violence, inmate-on-staff violence, refusal to obey orders. and extortion, the 

institutional staff consistently reported that these problems had neither increased nor decreased 

with the influx of strikers. Any increases in these institutional problems were attributed to 

overcroivding. changes in the inmate code (ie.. younger inmates were less respectful ofvlder felons 

and staff), and the integration of inmates with incntal health disabilities into the general 

7’) An esception to this trend \vas reported at the California State Prison at Lancaster. Within this facility, 

a pilot program to expand \I ork and educatioii/vocational training opportunities had been undertaken. The goal was 

100 percent einployinent tor all intnates. 

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population.x" Staff stressed that any change in the rate of institutional infractions could not be 

linked directly to the strike law. 

Preliminary statistical data on institutional adjustment indicate that the third strikers have 

had more disciplinary reports than non-strikers, hut the second strikers, at least initially, are hetter 

behaved. The institutional staff suggested that the second strikers are especially well-behaved 

because the Department and local prosecutors have pursued institutional incidents such as assaults 

or drug possession as additional strikes. For example, ifa second striker is involved in an assault 

on staff or another inmate, the assault could count as third strike and lead to a life sentence. The 

CDC staff reported that the prosecutors previously pursued only criminal convictions for serious. 

violent institutional incidents. 

Some of the second strikers expressed fear of getting a third strike while incarcerated, but 

when asked if their current sentence affected their attitude or willingness to comply with 

institutional rules, most reported that it had little or no effect. When asked if they had been written 

up For an institutional infraction during this current incarceration, most strikers indicated they had 

not. Similarly, most denied receiving "writeups" during prior incarcerations. 

We asked both second and third strikers kvhat motivated them to comply with institutional 

rules given that they must serve at least 80 percent of their sentence, regardless of their behavior. 

The most common motivators were family visits, preferred housing, and worWjob slots. 

c Irnpicf on Institutiond Sccurity 

Neither CDC institutional nor administrative staff indicated that institutional security 

"Numerous staff arid inmates commented on the integration of inmates on medication for mental health 

disabilities into the general population. The staff indicated that these inmates did not always adjust well to the 

pressures of living in general population, adhering to the ininate code. and/or are vulnerable to drug use and 

e.\ t ort io ti r i n y s . 

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procedures had been changed to handle the strike populations. A11 agreed that existing institutional 

ipes 

Rate /I 00 

0.09 

0.08 

0.08 

0.07 

security measures had been intensified and housing/programming policies had been enhanced 

within the last six months, but these changes were linked to recent escapes and not the introduction 

ofthe three strikes law. Indeed, the escape rate per 100 inmates has actually decreased since 1995 

(see Table 32). 

Total Serious Incidents 

Number Rate / 100 

4,184 4.7 

4.1 14 4.3 

3,982 5 .o 

6,233 5.7 

TABLE 32 

0.06 

0.04 

0.04 

0.02 

ESCAPE .4ND SERIOUS INCIDENT REPORTS 

1990-1998 

6.610 5.3 

6,668 5.1 

9,574 6.6 

9,769 6.6 

Year Esc 

Number 

11 1991 73 

II 1992 I 83 I, 1993 72 

0.05 1 6,974 I 5.9 ll 

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When asked if the staff felt threatened by the strikers - inmates with long criminal histories 

of violent crimes - most staff readily asserted that their greatest concerns were with overcrowding. 

decreased staff-inmate ratio, and the “loss of tools to work with.” IntenieLved staff perceived that 

traditional tools - the removal of privileges, good time credits, work/programming opportunities - 

had been curtailed or diminished under current fiscal and operational policies. 

D. Impiict on Correctionid Costs in C:iil{forrtici 

It is difficult to directly assess the impact of the law on correctional costs. We have already 

noted that the impact on prison population growth has not been as great as expected thus 

suggesting that there has been minimal costs to the CDC. Howwer, the question ofwhat would 

have been the sentences of the of the second and third strikers had the law not been adopted 

remains to be answered. 

It is possible to make some gross estimates as follows. First, we can pro-iect the 

incarceration costs for those now being sentenced to the CDC. These costs are shown in Table 33. 

Here, one can see that a three striker convicted of a crime against a person is receiving an average 

sentence of48 years (or life). Should the), live so long. the cost to the CDC in 1996 dollars will be 

over $1 million. We estimated the cost of incarcerating offenders sentenced under the California 

three strikes law by comparing the operational costs for conlining the typical violent and 

nonviolent third striker to non-strikers who have committed similar or more serious offenses. The 

average minimum time to serve was computed per offense catcgcry (person, property, drug. and 

othcr) for the second and third strikers. For the CDC non-strikers, the average time served per 

olfinse categoq’ reklects the mean time senred by felons rzleased from the CDC during calendar 

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year 1 c)C)G.xl 

These data shou- hut the costs of imprisonment of the second and third strikers are, as 

expected. significantly higher than for the non-stri ker cases. The comparisons for the violent 

crimes are probably unfair as they do not account for some of the very serious crimes that are 

imbedded in that category (e.g., simple assault, simple robbery, etc.). However, the other 

comparisons for property, drugs and *.other" crimes are more telling and realistic. These are the 

types of crimes that one m-ould expect to receive a shorter or "normal" sentence had the law not 

been implemented. By just calculating the incarceration costs for these crimes and comparing the 

three and two strike costs with the pre-law incarceration costs, the total difference is approximately 

$3.2 billion. Again, these costs are in 1996 dollars and do not include capital costs associated with 

my new facilities that may need to he constructed to accommodate these inmates. 

Among the strikers, personal offenders must serve at least 85 percent of the imposed sentence, while all SI 

others must serve at (cast SO percent of the imposed sentence. Therefore for the personal crime offender, for 

eumple. ue inultiplied the average sentence imposed on 3 Strikers convicted of a personal offense (56.7 years) 

Iiiiies 85 percent to obtained the Minimum Tiine to Serve. For the non-strikers. the figures represent actual average 

tiiiic served iii CDC tor those first released to parole during 1996. While these figures ought to represent only nonblrihcrs. it is possible that a iniiiiiiial number of strikers may have been paroled during this time and included in this 

population. Tiine served data for the non-strikers was obtained from CDC Report. "Time Served on Prison 

Sentcnce: Felons First Released to Parole by Offense. Calendar Year 1996." (May 1997). 

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TABLE 33 

Pcsrson a 1 

I’roperty 

I >rugs 

Othcr 

C A L I F 0 I< N I A C 0 1i li E C?’ I 0 N A L C 0 S T S - 

FOR STIiIKEliS ANI) NON-STRIKERS, 1996 

THREE STRIKERS 

$2 1,509 9.0 2.5 $1 93,15 I 7,265 $1,303,240.707 $ I50,203,XX5 

$2 I,5W 37 I .3 $X0,0 13 13,662 $1,093,144.163 $293.X55,058 

$2 1,509 3.5 I .2 $75.7 12 11,728 $887,936,583 $252,257,552 

$2 1,509 3. I 1 .o $65,602 3,895 $255,521,543 $83,777,555 

3 Strikers - I’roprrty, Drugs and Other. Only 

2 Strikers - All Offenses 

2,771 1 

36,550 $3,639,852,997 9786, 153,950 

2 Strikers - I’ropcrty, Drugs and Otlicr Only I 29,285 I $2,236,612,290 1 

1)IFFEHENCE RETWEEN 3 ANI) 2 STRIKE COSTS ANI) OLD -LAW COSTS 

FOR I’ROI’EI<TY. DRUGS AND OTHER CRIMES 

$3.1 72.51O.177 

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CHAPTER 8 

IMPACT ON CRIME RATES 

I. Introduction 

As noted in the first chapter of this report. three strike laws are expected to help reduce 

crime rates by incapacitating habitual offenders who cannot be deterred or rehabilitated. andor, by 

deterring would be offenders from committing new crimes. In this final chapter of the report, we 

examine these competing claims from three perspectives. In the first section, we examine the 

inmate perceptions of the law. Secondly, we consider the immediate impact of strike laws on the 

rate ofreported index crimes for California as compared to other states. Likewise, within 

California we look back again to the five counties that have applied the law in a very different 

manner. 

11. Inmate Perceptions 

Of the 33 strikers interviewed, about one third thought the law was effective in removing 

ioicnt. repeat offenders from the streets. As evidence of its effectiveness, the strikers pointed to 

the number of persons incarcerated under the law. However, the strikers also saw the \vide net of 

the lau as capturing the violent, repeat offenders as well as the "petty" offenders. One striker 

rcsponded to this question: 

"Yes, that is what I like about it." 

One third striker ivho agreed that the law \\':is removing violent offenders from the streets 

corn rn c n t e d 

-'They don't really knou \\hat is going on behind prison bars. The site of crimes has changed 

liorn the streets to prisuns. No deterrence. they come in here and do them." 

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For the majority of the strikers tvho saw the law as ineffective in incapacitating \,iolent 

repeat offenders from the streets: their reasons varied. Some inmates felt that it \vould actually 

increase the level of violence on the streets since one had nothing to lose after getting a second 

strike. As several inmates explained: 

‘-It is not changing anything. Things are [getting] worse. A guy knows he is going to strike 

out, so [now] he is going to get struck out. [Before] he would have not resisted arrest.’‘ 

“Quite often, the third strikers are picking up guns and shooting. They want to go out with the 

Gus to.” 

”People with strikes [want to] go for it all ... [we’re] holding court in the streets .’. 

“[The law) has a lot of people scared. [They] don’t want to get pulled over. Do everything 

they can do to get away. It is a threat to law enforcement.’’ 

While some strikers perceived the law as creating violent crime, others simply saw the law 

as ineffective or incarcerating the “wrong” offenders. Similar to the data shown earlier, it was 

clear to the inmates that the net being used to incapacitate offenders was too broad, and that too 

many minor offenders were being prosecuted and sentenced under the law’s provisions. This point 

was illustrated by several inmates. 

“[A] lot of guys who should be here [in prison] were not sentenced. [They are] catching the 

little guys, not serious, violent offenders.“ 

‘-It has not been efkctive in either one of its goals [incapacitation or deterrence]. Crimes are 

going down all over, not just here. It is getting individuals who are committing nonviolent 

crimes.’’ 

”Violent repeat offenders .... they were already in prison [doing time] with thc five year 

enhancements.” 

With respect to deterrence, thcrz were some inmates Xvho agreed that the law had made 

oHcnders more cautious, increased \iolence, and/or changed its locale, as illustrated in the 

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following commen ts: 

-'[It] probably slowed some down." 

'* [It] is a little effective, 25 to life makes thzm think twice, if they are aware their crimes 

could count." 

"[It] deters in a sort of way. Know if they have been in prison once, [they] are going to strike it 

out." 

"[It] could he [effective], I know of a few home boys who are kind of cautious. Both 

stopped committing crimes, they are more cautious. My brother stopped selling drugs. 

Others branched out, moved onto other states or different locations. Some have no regard 

for the law, they just don't think about the law.'' 

However, most of the strikers were much less optimistic about the ability of the law to 

deter offenders. The strikers reported that few individuals in the streets recognized the reality of 

the law, perceiving it as always applying to someone else. As explained by the strikers: 

'-No deterrence, not by and large. [Offenders] assume that they are not going to get caught 

or not do time." 

"They don't know what was going to happen. They don't stop. They can't understand 

anything but violence, a lot of serious cases . . . It can't stop nothing, just makes prisons 

more overcrowded." 

"Everyone thinks it is not going to happen to me." 

"Laws won't stop violence and crimes, we need jobs!" 

"Basically it [crime] is always going to continue. It is deeper in the government how crime is 

committed. Need to restructure the Public Defender's oflice. The Public Defender, the District 

jlttorney, and the judges are working together. . . . 

.. 

A corollary to their perceptions of the law's effectiveness in deterring crime is whether it 

affccted each striker's involvement in criminal behavior prior to his or her arrest [or the current 

oIfcnsc. Only seven of the strikers interviend reported that the law affected their behavior in the 

strcets. Five of the seven ofl>ncirrs deterred reported that the law prompted them to scvitch from 

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serious, violent offenses to property crimes in the hope that they would not be prosecuted for a 

third strike. In particular. they sought to avoid committing robberies. As one striker explained. she 

switched from "pulling street robberies" to theft and forgery." The other common impact on the 

offenders' behavior was to slow down their rate of involvement or to make them more cautious. 

Unfortunately for those that did change their crime pattern from violent to property crime, 

they were unaware ofwhat crimes counted as a strike. The majority said that they were not 

deterred by the law because they did not think that it would apply to them. They thought that the 

law only applied to "killers. child molesters. and rapists." They explained: 

"I did not think petty theft was a strike. I was not deterred." 

"I thought it was only violent and serious offenses. . . .[It had] no application to me." (This 

striker was convicted of possessiodsale of rock cocaine.) 

"My understanding was it was for child molesters, murderers, and rapists. I did not think it 

applied. I was not thinking about the law at the time of the current crime." 

"I had heard about the law (from the news). but never thought that it was me. [I] thought 

that it only applied to violent offenses - molestation, murder, robbery with a gun. No, it 

did not deter me because I was not doing that. . . I never had done robberies." (Current 

offense was sale of $5.00 bag of marijuana.) 

We asked the strikers how they learned about the law. Most said that they heard about it 

from the television news, newspapers, radio, and/or acquaintances. A surprising number first 

learned about the law during the court processing of their current offense, when it was explained to 

them by their attorney or another jail inmate. Regardless of where they had heard ahout the law, 

most strikers were misinformed as to its full scope prior to their current offense. They were 

confused about what offenses cvere considered strikes, how prior strikes were counted, and the 

rhis striker was incarcerated for stealing social security checks froin mail boxes. Sheihe went on to X?. 

evplain that had she:'he known that the current theft offense would result in a life sentence, she would have 

continued "pulling robberies." 

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second strike provision. Some thought of the laiv as only prospecti\,e, only strikeable on'enses that 

occurred afier the latv was implemented n.ould be considered strikes. 

In sum, the effectiveness of the California strikes laiv in deterring crime has been, at best, 

limited. Few strikers recognized the law as applicable to them or understood its provisions. Even 

fewer of the strikers considered the law at the time of the current offense. Thus, even if the 

offenders understood some of the ramifications of the law, had switched offenses, or were 

'cautious,' it did not dramatically alter their criminal activity. The common explanation was. "I 

was not thinking about the law at the time of the current offense" or "It was a spur of the moment 

thing." This failure to be deterred by so drastic a penalty raises serious questions regarding the 

\viability of deterrence as a crime control strategy. 

111. 

I 

Impact on Crime Rates Within California 

Already we have obser\*ed a strong variation in how the law has been applied within 

California since its enactment in 1994. Although the number of post-implementation years is 

relatively short (3-1 years) to perform time series analysis, a preliminary analysis of a natural 

experiment allows one to make some preliminary but tentative analysis of the relative effects of 

three strikes legislation on public safety. Two counties (San Francisco and Alameda) are clearly 

the more lenient jurisdictions that have chosen not to apply the law as designed. The other three 

counties (Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Diego) are more confonning to the law and have 

applied it hr more frequently than the other two. If the law has crime control rfkcts, one would 

hJpthrsize that crime rates would fdl more quickly or sharply in the latter three counties as 

compared to the other two. 

Figure 6 sho\vs thc rate of reported crimes per 100,000 persons for the five Calitcrnia 

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counties and state\\iJr, based upon the California Crime Index (CCI) from 19'90-19'90. x3 

Consistent with national as well as state level trends. each of the five counties experienced 

decreasing crime rates over the six-year period. The largest reductions in overall crime rates have 

occurred in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco with crime rates dropping by over 30 

percent during the six-year period. In Alameda County, total crime rates also dropped (from 3,327 

per 100,000 in 1990 to 2,935 per 100,000 in 1996) but at a far slower rate. Sacramento County, on 

the other hand, experienced increases in crime rates between 1991 and 1993, but by 1996 had 

returned to levels comparable to 1990. These data suggest no clear pattern of crime reduction 

occurring in relation to the application of California's three strikes laws. Crime rates are being 

driven by factors other than the aggressive strike prosecution policies pursued in Los Angeles, San 

Diego, and Sacramento Counties. 

The same conclusion can be stated by looking only at violent crime rates. Overall, there 

was an 18.5 percent rediiction in violent offenses reported to police between 1990 and 1096 

statewide. As shown in Figure 2, Los Angeles and San Francisco posted substantial declines in 

their rates of liolent crime. Alameda County was the only county within our sample that recorded 

a net increase (from 907 to 1 ,O 16) in violent acts reported to police between 1990- 1996. However, 

\ iolcnt offenses have been declining in Alameda since 1994. 

California Crime Index includes the number of reported homicides. forcible rapes, robberies. aggravated 

axatilts. burglaries. and motor vehicle thefts. The FBI UCR includes hoinicide, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated 

;iss;itiIt. burglarq, larcen\,-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson. (California Department of Justice. (I 995). California 

C'rtiiiiiial Justicc' Profile 1995. Sacramento. CA: Division of Criminal Justice Information Services. Criminal Justice 

Sr;iti>[ics Center.) 

R; 

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IV. Impact on Crime Ratcs Among thc States 

UCR index crime data from six strike states - California, Washington, Georgia, Texas, 

Massachusetts, and Michigan - were also collected and analyzed. The first thrce states are states 

that adopted three strikes laws and have had them in place since 1993 or 1994. The other three 

states reflect states that did not adopt three strikes legislation but had similar crime rates at the time 

that California, Georgia and Washington adopted their bills. As shown in Figure 7. all six states 

showed trends in their crime rate patterns which are not consistent with those who argued that 

adoption of these laws would produce independent effects on crime reduction. In addition, when 

we look closer at the crime rates and compare the differences among the three strike states and the 

non-strike states by violent and property crime rates, we see the same basic trends. Table 37 shows 

that from 1990 to 1996, both violent and property crime rates have decreased for all the states 

under examination, tvhich also brings into question the effects of the three strikes laws. 

Admittedly, this analysis is simplistic from a methodological perspective as it does not control for 

all of the factors that ha\x been shown to be related to crime rates. It could also be that the socdlled non-three strikes states had adopted other legislative reforms that served the same purpose of 

tqeling habitual offenders. illoreover, there is no reason for Washington and Georgia to even 

assume that their laws nould have an impact as they were largely symbolic to begin with. Only 

California could possibly argue that three strikes might have an impact on its crime problem. 

It h'is now been ne11 established that the overall rates ofcrime as well as the violent crime 

rate in the United States have declined during the 1990s. This downturn in crime was evident as 

earl) ;is 1903 in mmy states. crime rates lvere dropping well before then. Many other social, 

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economic, and public policy factors havc been cited as contributing to changes in crimc rates." 

Thc bottom line is that California, which is thc only state to aggressively implement a three strikes 

law, has shown no superior rcductions in crime rates. Furthermore, within California, counties that 

have vigorously implcmentcd the law also show no superior decreases in crime rates as compared 

to other counties. 

Figure 6 

Reported Crime per 100,000 across selected California Counties 

6000 

5000 

4000 

3000 

2000 

1000 

0 

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 

- San Diego ...-a- A laineda . Los Angeles San Francisco 

+Sacrainento &Statewide 

So UT 

ce: 

See "Are Crime Rates Declining?" by J. Austin and R. Cohen (November 1996) National Council on 84 

Criiiie and Delinquency Fociis, San Francisco. CA. 

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Figure 7 

790.4 

761.1 

Offenses Reported per 100,000 across Selected States 

5,204.4 

7,065.3 

9000 

8000 

7000 

6000 

5000 

4000 

3000 

a000 

1000 

0 

-o- California Washington State . Georgia Texas 

+Michigan Massachusettes + Nationwide Total 

Soiiri c’ Uniform Crrmc Reportsfor the Llnikd Stutc.T. I990 - I997 

Table 37 

Violent and Property Crime Rates by State 

N’as h i n t o n 

>I :iss:ic h u sc t ts 

M ic h ig;) n II 

rates rates 

765.3 6,007.3 

501.6 5,72 1.3 

736.2 I 4,561.5 

1996 1996 

Violent crime Property crime 

rates rates 

638.7 5,671 .0 

43 1.2 5,478.2 

642.1 I 3,1949 

4 635.3 4,482.2 644.4 5,0645 

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V. Summary 

'The national movement toward three strikes and you're out legislation has been a symbolic 

campaign that has had little if any effect on the criminal justice system or public safety. With the 

noted exception of California, all of the states followcd the initial lead of thc state of Washington 

by carefully wording their legislative reforms to ensure that few offenders would be impacted by 

the law. Contrary to the perceptions of the public and policy makcrs, there are vcry few offenders 

who have a prior conviction for very serious crimes who thcn rcpeat the crime. In those rare 

instances that fit this profile, states already had the capacity to and were sentencing such offenders 

to very lengthy prison terms. Only California has tried to expand the "strike zone" so that 

thousands of offenders could be sentenced under the new law. 

Hut evcn under California's ambitious law, the impact was not nearly severe as prqjected. 

The California experience has also served to demonstrate how the enormous amount of discretion 

held by prosecutors can be used to apply any law to offenders as they see fit to choose. Indeed, 

California has provided a clear example of -'justice by geography'' where similarly situated 

oilimders are receiving very dissimilar sentences. Ironically, while the California law may have 

bcen designed to limit discretion by system ofiicials in handling rcpeat offenders - through the ban 

on plca bargaining and the provisions for mandatoq sentencing - it had an opposite effect as 

district attomcys vary in their interpretation and application of thc law. As Fecley and Kamin note: 

Thus, ironically, this (California) law like so many othcr laws designed to restrict 

discretion, has the effect of cnlarging thc discrctionary powers-- and hence scntencing 

powcrs-- of the prosecutor at the expense of the judge." 

Feeley and Kamin (1996). p. 150. ny 

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With regard to crime rcductions, the law has had minimal impact. In those statcs that 

passed largely symbolic laxvs, one cannot link the "three strikes" reform tu crime reduction since 

they are not affecting a significant portion of the criminal population. In California, crime rates 

were decreasing before the strike law took effect, and has continued its decline at the same rate as 

states that did not pass three strikes legislation. More significantly, when we examined California 

counties that reflected differential application of the law, \ve found similar changes in pre- and 

post-reform crime rates, regardless of the county's policies on prosecuting strike cases. The failure 

of this reform to either dctcr or incapacitate the so called "high rate" offender is linked to an 

inability to target high risk offenders (selective incapacitation), or to create the perception of 

imposition of the law in a swift and equitable manner. It should also be noted that in California, 

and perhaps elsewhere, there are many unfortunate offenders who have been severely punished 

using a very unfair strike zone. Thus many non-violent individuals are being incarcerated for very 

long periods of time xvhich will ultimately overcrowd the prison system and cost the tax-payers an 

enormous amount of money as the three strikes laws continue to be used. Overall, these findings 

suggest that thc future implementation of the three strikes law will continue to be used in much the 

same manner as it currently is being used, with L,os Angeles county leading thc country in its 

application of thc full extent of the law. Although this examination showed that the effects of the 

three strikes legislation were highly over estimated, continued watch of the laws effects will be 

necessary to determine the long term effects on the courts, the local and state jails, and the crime 

rates. 

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