Applicability of Federal Safety 

Regulations to All 9-to-15-Passenger 

Vans Operating Interstate for Direct 

Compensation 

Final Report 

 October 2006
FOREWORD 

This report, sponsored by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), 

investigated the regulatory impact on small businesses from eliminating the 75-air-mile criterion 

from the applicability of FMCSA’s Final Rule issued on August 12, 2003. This report provides 

an important new resource to estimate the number of motor carriers, drivers, and vehicles that 

would be subject to implementing regulations to address the provisions of Section 4136 of 

SAFETEA-LU, as codified in 49 U.S.C. 31136. The study team’s work generates a range of 

estimates of the regulated entities using new and innovative techniques. The report also draws 

upon information obtained from important stakeholders in the crash reconstruction expert, van 

operator, and State regulatory communities – communities with whom FMCSA has rarely, if 

ever, communicated in the past. Finally, it provides a framework to estimate the benefits and 

costs of implementing such a regulation. 

A team conducted a literature review; collected data from States and carriers; and developed a 

questionnaire to interview and collect data from State agencies, stakeholders, and experts 

pertaining to 9-to-15-passenger vans. 

Although the report can be helpful to the general public in understanding safety issues regarding 

9-to-15 passenger vans, the report is primarily targeted towards commercial motor carriers, 

private fleet operators, and van drivers. 

This publication is considered a final report and does not supersede another publication. 

NOTICE 

This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation in the 

interest of information exchange. The United States Government assumes no liability for its 

contents or use thereof. 

The contents of this report reflect the views of the contractor who is responsible for the accuracy 

of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official policy of the 

Department of Transportation. 

This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. 

The United States Government does not endorse products or manufacturers named herein. Trade 

or manufacturers’ names appear herein only because they are considered essential to the object 

of this document.
Form DOT F 1700.7

1. Report No. 

FMCSA-PSV-07-005 

2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. 

4. Title and Subtitle: 

Applicability of Federal Safety Regulations to All 9-to15- Passenger Vans Operating 

Interstate for Direct Compensation

5. Report Date: 

October 2006 

7. Author(s): 6. Performing Organization Code 

Arthur Greenberg, Thomas McSweeney, Susan Whitmore, David Kall (Battelle) 

Contributors: Mark Lepofsky, Patrick Balducci, Jodi Rizek, Michael Murphy (Battelle); 

Daniel Blower (University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute); Steve Keppler, 

(Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance) 

8. Performing Organization Report No.

9. Performing Organization Name and Address: 10. Work Unit No. 

Battelle Memorial Institute 

505 King Avenue 

Columbus, OH 43201

11. Contract or Grant No. 

GS-23F-8167H/ORDER 1406-04-06-DO60197 

13. Type of Report and Period Covered 

Final Report 

12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address: 

Department of Transportation 

Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration 

Bus & Truck Standards and Operations 

1200 New Jersey Ave. SE 

Washington, DC 20590 

14. Sponsoring Agency Code 

FMCSA

15. Supplementary Notes: 

Contracting Officer’s Technical Representative: Deborah M. Freund; Task Order Manager: Jeffrey Van Ness

16. Abstract: 

This report, sponsored by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), investigated the regulatory impact on small 

businesses from eliminating the 75-air-mile criterion from the applicability of FMCSA’s Final Rule issued on August 12, 2003. This 

report provides an important new resource to estimate the number of motor carriers, drivers, and vehicles that would be subject to 

implementing regulations to address the provisions of Section 4136 of SAFETEA-LU, as codified in 49 U.S.C. 31136. The study team’s 

work generates a range of estimates of the regulated entities using new and innovative techniques. The report also draws upon 

information obtained from important stakeholders in the crash reconstruction expert, van operator, and State regulatory communities – 

communities with whom FMCSA has rarely, if ever, communicated in the past. Finally, it provides a framework to estimate the benefits 

and costs of implementing such a regulation. 

A team conducted a literature review; collected data from States and carriers; and developed a questionnaire to interview and collect data 

from State agencies, stakeholders, and experts pertaining to 9-to-15-passenger vans. 

17. Key Words: 

Commercial Motor Carriers, Passenger Vans, Private Motor Carriers 

18. Distribution Statement

19. Security Classif. (of this report) 

 Unclassified 

20. Security Classif. (of this page) 

 Unclassified 

21. No. of Pages: 

114 

22. Price 

 N/A 

 

Technical Report Documentation Page 
SI* (MODERN METRIC) CONVERSION FACTORS 

APPROXIMATE CONVERSIONS TO SI UNITS APPROXIMATE CONVERSIO

Symbol When You Know Multiply By To Find Symbol Symbol When You Know Multiply B

LENGTH LENGTH 

in inches 25.4 millimeters mm mm millimeters 0.039 ft feet 0.305 meters m m meters 3.28 yd yards 0.914 meters m m meters 1.09 mi miles 1.61 kilometers km km kilometers 0.621 

AREA AREA 

in2 square inches 645.2 square millimeters mm2 mm2 square millimeters 0.0016 ft2 square feet 0.093 square meters m2 m2 square meters 10.764 yd2 square yards 0.836 square meters m2 m2 square meters 1.195 ac acres 0.405 hectares ha ha hectares 2.47 mi2 square miles 2.59 square kilometers km2 km2 square kilometers 0.386 

VOLUME VOLUME 

fl oz fluid ounces 29.57 milliliters ml ml milliliters 0.034 gal gallons 3.785 liters l l liters 0.264 ft3 cubic feet 0.028 cubic meters m3 m3 cubic meters 35.71 yd3 cubic yards 0.765 cubic meters m3 m3 cubic meters 1.307 

MASS MASS 

oz ounces 28.35 grams g g grams 0.035 lb pounds 0.454 kilograms kg kg kilograms 2.202 T short tons (2000 lbs) 0.907 megagrams Mg Mg megagrams 1.103 

TEMPERATURE (exact) TEMPERATURE 

°F Fahrenheit 5(F-32)/9 Celsius °C °C Celsius 1.8 C + 32 

temperature or (F-32)/1.8 temperature temperature 

ILLUMINATION ILLUMINAT

fc foot-candles 10.76 lux lx lx lux 0.0929 fl foot-Lamberts 3.426 candela/m2 cd/m2 cd/m2 candela/m2 0.2919 

FORCE and PRESSURE or STRESS FORCE and PRESSUR

lbf pound-force 4.45 newtons N N newtons 0.225 psi pound-force per square inch 6.89 kilopascals kPa kPa kilopascals 0.145 

* SI is the symbol for the International System of Units. Appropriate rounding should be made to comply with Section 4 of ASTM E380.
TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................... i

Overview.............................................................................................................................. i 

Data Investigation and Analysis......................................................................................... ii 

Findings.............................................................................................................................. iv 

Recommendations............................................................................................................... v 

1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Project Methodology............................................................................................... 1 

1.1.1 Literature and Data Search.......................................................................... 1 

1.1.2 Interviews with Nine Entities Concerning 9-to-15-Passenger Van 

Operational Factors and Costs for Safety Regulation Implementation ...... 2 

1.1.3 Interviews with Nine Entities Concerning Vehicle Condition, 

Maintenance, and Driver Training as Contributing Factors in Crashes 

Involving 9-to-15-Passenger Vans.............................................................. 2 

1.1.4 Safety and Economic Analyses................................................................... 3 

1.2 Background............................................................................................................. 3 

1.2.1 History of Regulations................................................................................ 3 

1.2.2 Potential Regulations.................................................................................. 5 

2.0 9-TO-15-PASSENGER VAN OVERVIEW ...................................................................... 9

2.1 The 9-to-15-Passenger Van Carrier Industry in the United States ......................... 9 

2.1.1 History of 15-Passenger Van Production.................................................... 9 

2.2 For-hire 9-to-15-Passenger Van Operations......................................................... 10 

2.2.1 Airport Ground, Tours and Charter Operations........................................ 11 

2.2.2 Vans for Rural Communities Operations.................................................. 12 

2.2.3 Vans Transporting Workers Operations ................................................... 12 

2.3 General Characteristics of 9-to-15 For-hire Passenger Van Carriers................... 13 

2.3.1 Characterizing 9-to-15 For-hire Passenger Vans Directly from 

the Census File.......................................................................................... 13 

2.3.2 Analysis of Results from a Data Request from Small Carriers ................ 20 

3.0 ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF 9-TO-15-PASSENGER VAN MOTOR 

CARRIERS......................................................................................................................... 24

3.1 Overall Motor Carrier Estimate Using the Crash File .......................................... 25 

3.2 For-hire Estimate Using Interview Sources.......................................................... 27 

3.2.1 Airport Ground, Tours and Charter Transportation Segment................... 28 

3.2.2 Vans for Rural Communities Transportation Sector ................................ 29 

3.2.3 Vans Transporting Workers, “Camionetas,” Transportation Sector......... 29 

3.2.4 Summary of Estimate of For-hire Van Companies................................... 30 

 
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) 

Page

4.0 SMALL PASSENGER VAN SAFETY............................................................................ 32

4.1 Literature Review.................................................................................................. 32 

4.1.1 General Safety Compared to Other Highway Transport........................... 32 

4.1.2 Safety Concerns that FMCSA Regulations May Address........................ 32 

4.1.3 Other Safety Concerns.............................................................................. 33 

4.2 Interviews.............................................................................................................. 37 

4.2.1 Driver Responsibility for Safety ............................................................... 37 

4.2.2 Vehicle Contribution in Serious Crashes.................................................. 38 

4.2.3 Compliance Issues .................................................................................... 38 

4.2.4 Maintenance Issues................................................................................... 39 

4.3 Safety Data Analyses............................................................................................ 39 

4.3.1 Approach................................................................................................... 39 

4.3.2 Databases.................................................................................................. 41 

4.3.3 Description of Crash Data......................................................................... 45 

4.3.4 Comparison of Crash Data........................................................................ 46 

5.0 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 53

5.1 Baseline................................................................................................................. 53 

5.2 Costs...................................................................................................................... 54 

5.2.1 Driver Medical Examination and Certification......................................... 56 

5.2.2 Driver Qualifications ................................................................................ 57 

5.2.3 Initial DQF Setup Costs............................................................................ 58 

5.2.4 Ongoing DQF Maintenance Costs............................................................ 60 

5.2.5 Total Costs for Driver Qualifications Requirements................................ 61 

5.2.6 Vehicle Inspection, Repair and Maintenance ........................................... 62 

5.3 Benefits Assessment ............................................................................................. 64 

5.3.1 Fatalities Avoided Benefits....................................................................... 65 

5.3.2 Injuries Avoided Benefits......................................................................... 65 

5.4 Benefit-cost Findings............................................................................................ 67 

6.0 CONCLUSIONS................................................................................................................ 71

6.1 Findings................................................................................................................. 71 

6.2 Recommendations................................................................................................. 72 

7.0 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................. 73

 
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) 

Page

List of Appendices

APPENDIX A: MCMIS Reporting Rate ................................................................................. A-1 

APPENDIX B: Comparison of MCMIS and GES .................................................................. B-1 

APPENDIX C: MCS-150 Form............................................................................................... C-1 

APPENDIX D: Comparison of Inspection Data...................................................................... D-1 

APPENDIX E: Examples of Reportable Accident Records.....................................................E-1 

List of Tables

Table 1. Current and Potential Regulation Application by Motor Carrier Type ....................... 7 

Table 2. Number of Carriers by Base of Operation................................................................. 17 

Table 3. Drivers and Buses of Target Carriers ........................................................................ 20 

Table 4. Motor Carrier Profile – Interstate Operating in the more than 75-air-mile Range.... 21 

Table 5. Motor Carrier Profile – Interstate Operating in the less than 75-air-mile Range ...... 22 

Table 6. Calculation of Total Number of Carriers................................................................... 27 

Table 7. Estimate of Interstate/Intrastate Carriers................................................................... 27 

Table 8. Estimate of For-hire Airport, Tours, Charter Carriers............................................... 29 

Table 9. Estimate of For-hire Van Companies Under New Regulation .................................. 30 

Table 10. Rollover Propensity of 15-Passenger Vans by Occupancy Level ............................. 34 

Table 11. Static Stability Factors for Three Vehicles................................................................ 34 

Table 12. Rollover Characteristics by Vehicle Type................................................................. 35 

Table 13. All Van Crash Records—Fatal-Crash-to-Crash Ratio by Year and Totals............... 47 

Table 14. Vans Currently Covered by FMCSRs – Fatal-Crash-to-Crash Ration 

by Year and Totals..................................................................................................... 48 

Table 15. Vans Not Currently Covered by FMCSRs – Fatal-Crash-to-Crash Ratio................. 48 

Table 16. All Van Crash Records – Injury-Crash-to-Crash Ratio............................................. 49 

Table 17. Vans Currently Covered by FMCSRs Injury-Crash-to-Crash Ratio ......................... 49 

Table 18. Vans Not Currently Covered by FMCSRs ................................................................ 50 

Table 19. California Farm Labor Vehicle Violations................................................................ 51 

Table 20. 9-to-15-Passenger Van Industry Classifications........................................................ 54 

Table 21. Additional Requirements for 9-to-15-Passenger Van Operators < 75 Miles ............ 55 

Table 22. Driver Medical Examination and Certification Costs ............................................... 57 

Table 23. Initial Driver Qualification Costs .............................................................................. 60 

Table 24. Ongoing Driver Qualification Costs.......................................................................... 61 

Table 25. Driver Qualification Costs......................................................................................... 61 

Table 26. Vehicle Inspection, Repair, and Maintenance Qualification Costs........................... 64 

Table 27. Estimated Avoided Fatalities – Benefits.................................................................... 66 

Table 28. Estimated Avoided Injuries – Benefits...................................................................... 66 

Table 29. Benefit-cost Summary (in thousands) ....................................................................... 67 

Table 30. Lower Bound Benefit-cost Summary (in thousands) ................................................ 68 

Table 31. Upper Bound Benefit-cost Summary (in thousands)................................................. 68 

 
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) 

Page

List of Tables (Continued)

Table 32. Small Business Cost Impacts (in thousands)............................................................. 69 

Table 33. Lower Bound Small Business Cost Impacts (in thousands)...................................... 70 

Table 34. Upper Bound Small Business Cost Impacts (in thousands) ...................................... 70 

Table A-1. Crash Involvements by Bus Size and Year, MCMIS Crash File............................. A-1 

Table A-2. Fatal Bus Involvements Reported in MCMIS and BIFA, 2001-2003 

by Bus Seating Capacity.......................................................................................... A-2 

Table A-3. State Reporting Rates to MCMIS Crash File .......................................................... A-3 

Table A-4. Estimate of Annual Number of MCMIS-reportable 9-to-15-Passenger Bus 

Crash Involvements................................................................................................. A-4 

Table A-5. Estimate of Annual Number of MCMIS-reportable Bus Crash Involvements 

Adjusted by Bus-reporting Rate .............................................................................. A-5 

Table A-6. Estimate of Annual Number of MCMIS-reportable Bus Crash Involvements 

Adjusted for Crash-severity Reporting Rates.......................................................... A-5 

Table B-1. MCMIS Reportable Crash Involvements by Bus Type, Estimated from GES........ B-1 

Table B-2. Crash Involvements by Bus Type Estimated from GES ......................................... B-2 

Table D-1. Match Results by Carrier Type................................................................................ D-3 

Table D-2. Inspections by Carrier Type..................................................................................... D-3 

Table D-3. Unit Inspected by Carrier Type ............................................................................... D-4 

Table D-4. Variable Definitions for Results of Inspections....................................................... D-5 

Table D-5. Inspection Results for All Matched Carriers........................................................... D-5 

Table D-6. Difference in Inspection Results by Carrier Type ................................................... D-6 

Table D-7. Difference in Inspection Results by Carrier Type Operators of 

9-to-15-Passenger Buses Only................................................................................. D-7 

Table D-8. Inspection Results for Interstate Operators of 9-to-15-Passenger Buses within 

100 Miles and More than 100 Miles........................................................................ D-8 

Table E-1. Example of Carriers with Reportable Accidents Having USDOT Numbers ...........E-1 

Table E-2. Example of Carriers with Reportable Accidents and No USDOT Number.............E-3 

Table E-3. Carriers Who Might be Operating under the 75-Air-Mile Exclusion.......................E-4 

 
TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) 

Page

List of Figures 

Figure 1. Registered 15-Passenger Vans in U.S., 1990-2002 .................................................... 10 

Figure 2. Base State of Target 9-to-15-Passenger Bus Operators.............................................. 16 

Figure 3. Distribution of Target Carriers by Number of Buses Operated.................................. 17 

Figure 4. Distribution of Target Bus Operators by Number of Drivers..................................... 18 

Figure 5. Distribution of Target Bus Operators by the Number of Interstate Drivers............... 19 

Figure 6. Distribution of Target Bus Operators by the Number of Intrastate Drivers............... 19 

Figure 7. Example Driver Violations Form (FMCSA) .............................................................. 59 

Figure 8. Inspector Qualifications Documentation (Iowa DOT) ............................................... 63 

 
LIST OF ACRONYMS 

BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis 

BIFA Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents 

BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics 

BMCS Bureau of Motor Carrier Safety 

CHP California Highway Patrol 

CFR Code of Federal Regulations 

CMV Commercial Motor Vehicle 

CMVSA Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety Act 

CTAA Community Transportation Association of America 

CVSA 

DATIA 

DL 

DOT 

DQF 

Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance 

Drug and Alcohol Testing Industry Association 

Driver License 

Department of Transportation 

Driver Qualification File 

FLC Farm Labor Contractor 

FLV Farm Labor Vehicles 

FARS 

FHWA 

Fatality Analysis Reporting System 

Federal Highway Administration 

FMCSA Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration 

FMCSRs Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulations 

GES General Estimates System 

GM 

GAWR 

General Motors 

Gross Axle Weight Rating 

GCWR Gross Combination Weight Rating 

GVW Gross Vehicle Weight 

GVWR Gross Vehicle Weight Rating 

HM Hazardous Materials 

ICCTA 

LLW 

Interstate Commerce Commission Termination Act of 1995 

Lightly Loaded Weight 

MCMIS Motor Carrier Management Information System 

MCSA Motor Carrier Safety Act 

 
MCSAP Motor Carrier Safety Assistance Program 

MCSIA 

NAICS 

NHTSA 

NPRM 

NSC 

Motor Carrier Safety Improvement Act 

North American Industrial Classification System 

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 

Notice of Proposed Rulemaking 

National Safety Council 

NTSB 

OOS 

National Transportation Safety Board 

Out-of-Service 

PAR Police Accident Report 

SAFER 

SAFETEA-LU 

Safety and Fitness Electronic Records 

Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: 

A Legacy for Users 

SBA 

SSF 

SUV 

Small Business Administration 

Static Stability Factor 

Sport Utility Vehicle 

TLPA Taxicab, Limousine & Paratransit Association 

TTI 

TIA 

Texas Transportation Institute 

Tire Industry Association 

TEA Transportation Equity Act 

TRB Transportation Research Board 

USDOT United States Department of Transportation 

UMTRI University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 

 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

This report presents the results of a project entitled the Applicability of Federal Motor Carrier 

Safety Regulations (FMCSRs) to 9-to-15-Passenger Vans Operating Interstate for Direct 

Compensation, sponsored by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). The 

report investigated the regulatory impact on small businesses from eliminating the 75-air-mile 

criterion from the applicability of FMCSA’s Final Rule issued on August 12, 2003. This report 

provides an important new resource to estimate the number of motor carriers, drivers, and 

vehicles that would be subject to implementing regulations to address the provisions of Section 

4136 of SAFETEA-LU, as codified in 49 U.S.C. 31136. The study team’s work generates a 

range of estimates of the regulated entities using new and innovative techniques. The report also 

draws upon information obtained from important stakeholders in the crash reconstruction expert, 

van operator, and State regulatory communities – communities with whom FMCSA has rarely, if 

ever, communicated in the past. Finally, it provides a framework to estimate the benefits and 

costs of implementing such a regulation. 

The project has three primary objectives: 

1. Identify the number of for-hire carriers that are operating vehicles designed or used to 

transport 9-to-15-passengers, including the driver, interstate within 75-air-miles of the 

driver’s reporting location. 

2. To estimate the benefit and costs of eliminating the 75-air-mile criterion from the 

applicability of FMCSA’s Final Rule issued on August 12, 2003. 

3. To estimate the regulatory impact on small businesses operating 9-to-15-passenger vans 

interstate based on the Small Business Administration’s (SBA) size standards. 

In order to meet these objectives, Battelle assembled and led a project team that included the 

Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA) and the University of Michigan Transportation 

Research Institute (UMTRI). The team conducted a literature review; collected data from States 

and carriers; and developed a questionnaire to interview and collect data from State agencies, 

stakeholders, and experts pertaining to 9-to-15-passenger vans. 

Overview 

Production of 15-passenger vans began in the early 1970s to transport small groups of people 

where a full-size bus would be too large, but a passenger car would be too small. However, 

instead of creating a new model, most manufacturers modified their existing cargo van by adding 

more seats and lengthening the body without lengthening the wheelbase. Dodge (now part of 

DaimlerChrysler), Ford and General Motors (GM) were the only manufacturers of 15-passenger 

vans in the United States. 

The 9-to-15-passenger van is utilized by motor carriers to serve many different markets. These 

vans are operated primarily intrastate by private carriers such as church groups, hotels, industrial 

 i
companies, van pools and schools. The vans are used by for-hire carriers to transport passengers 

to and from airports, tour transportation, in rural areas, and to transport agricultural and industrial 

workers. For-hire carriers operate 9-to-15-passenger vans both intrastate and interstate. 

According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), from 1991 to 2000, 

9-to-15-passenger vans were involved in approximately 0.22 percent of all fatal accidents and 

0.24 percent of all single-vehicle fatal accidents. Since they make up 0.25 percent of all vehicles 

in the United States, on a per-vehicle basis, they are actually involved in slightly less than the 

average number of fatal accidents. However, when compared to passenger vehicles and smaller 

occupancy vans, they have a higher incidence of rollover, resulting in a higher percentage of 

multiple fatalities and severe injuries. 

 

There are many safety concerns for 9-to-15-passenger vans due to their design and handling 

characteristics. Improperly inflated tires can change the vehicle-handling characteristics and 

increase rollover propensity. Roof crush is also an issue when a van overturns. The space left 

above each row of passenger seats can be reduced by as much as 15 inches. The lack of 

experienced drivers operating vans is an issue since these vans handle differently than regular 

passenger cars especially when they are fully loaded and during emergency situations. The 

9-to-15-passenger van design increases the rollover propensity, due to its high and rearward 

center of gravity when fully loaded. 

Some van operators appear to believe that if they do not charge for transport they are exempt 

from all regulations. While this is not true if the van operator is under contract to provide the 

service to a government or non-profit agency, by not being familiar with the regulations, some 

private van operators may not regularly perform pre-trip inspections. 

Data Investigation and Analysis 

There is no single adequate source that provides the characteristics for for-hire 9-to-15-passenger 

van carriers. Identifying the percentage of for-hire 9-to-15-passenger carriers that travel less 

than 75-air-miles in the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) Census File 

database is unreliable due to the small number of carriers remaining after the effects of 

underreporting and the exclusion of carriers that operate larger vehicle types in addition to 9-to15-passenger vans is considered. If the MCMIS Crash File is being used to identify excluded 

carriers, and if the carrier does not register for a USDOT number, it becomes a difficult task to 

identify these carriers and link them to the MCMIS Census File. 

Each year, vehicles identified as buses in Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) are found 

to be other vehicle types. The Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) file does not include 

information about the carrier’s radius of operations. The accident rate information in the 

MCMIS Census File was found to be unreliable. Therefore, the MCMIS Crash and Census Files 

are used along with an accident rate to develop a “backwards” estimate of the total number of 9-

to-15-passenger van carriers. The numbers of for-hire 9-to-15-passenger van carriers that 

 ii
operate interstate and could come under the FMCSRs in the future were estimated from industry 

associations, literature and interview sources. 

If the FMCSRs are applied to interstate carriers that are currently exempt from the regulation, an 

estimated 1,590 new carriers would come under the regulations. The total estimated compliance 

cost for those carriers in 2006 would be $1.81 million or $1,135 per carrier. Over a ten-year 

period, assuming a 1.7 percent growth rate in the number of new carriers in 2015, there will be 

an estimated 1,847 carriers. Assuming a 7 percent discount rate, the total discounted cost to 

those carriers over the ten-year period will be $13 million or $7,000 per carrier. 

Benefits were estimated based on calculated reductions in injuries and fatalities stemming from 

compliance with the FMCSRs. By including these 1,590 carriers under the regulations, there 

would be a 40 percent reduction in the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio and a 10 percent reduction in the 

injury-crash-to-crash ratio. Assuming average annual miles traveled, fleet size, and accident 

rates remain unchanged, an estimated 13 fatalities and 117 injuries will be prevented each year 

by bringing the 1,590 carriers under the regulations. If 13 fatalities are avoided, costs would be 

reduced by $52 million. If 117 injuries are avoided, costs would be reduced by an additional 

$23 million. A total estimated reduction of $75 million for fatality and injury damages would be 

saved each year. Holding the crash reduction percentage constant, assuming a 1.7 percent 

growth rate and a discount rate of 7 percent, results in a total cost reduction over a ten-year 

period of $606 million. Of this total, $420 million can be attributed to the reduction in fatalities 

and $186 million to the reduction in injuries. The net benefit-cost ratio is a positive 47 to 1. 

A sensitivity analysis was performed to look at the effect of possible changes in the number of 

carriers and the fatal and injury crash ratios. Assuming a standard deviation in the number of 

carriers coming under the regulations of 25 percent and a 42 percent standard deviation for the 

crash ratio estimates, then it can be stated with 95 percent confidence that the number of carriers 

will be between 795 and 2,385. Furthermore, the reduction in the crash ratio would be between 

6.5 and 74 percent for the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio and between 1.6 and 18.4 percent for the 

injury-crash-to-crash ratio. Since the benefit-cost ratio is so high, and both the costs and benefits 

are proportional to the number of carriers, the ratio will be minimized by using the low bound 

numbers. When the lower numbers are put into the equations, the benefit-cost ratio is reduced to 

7.6. Therefore, this data analysis shows with greater than 95 percent confidence that the benefitcost ratio is positive by more than a factor of 7.6 to 1. 

A survey of motor carriers showed that 76 percent of the carriers operating vans that will be 

affected by including all interstate for-hire carriers under the FMCSRs will be small businesses. 

The expected total discounted cost to small businesses over the ten-year period from 2006 

through 2015 was estimated to be $9 million. Based on the sensitivity analysis performed using 

all potentially covered carriers, the impacts on small business could range from $4.0 million to 

$14.6 million over the ten-year period. 

 iii
Findings 

An estimated 1,590 additional for-hire 9-to15-passenger van carriers would come under the 

FMCSRs if all for-hire interstate carriers are covered. The lower and upper bound estimate on 

the number of carriers was 795 and 2,385 respectively. Given the wide range of uncertainty, 

these estimates are best presented as approximately 1,600 additional carriers with a lower and 

upper bound of 800 and 2,400 carriers. The exact numbers will be used in the paragraphs that 

follow simply to retain mathematical consistency. The only rounding that has been performed is 

on the final numbers. 

The cost for eliminating the 75-air-mile criterion can be classified into three categories: driver 

medical examination and certification; driver qualifications; and vehicle inspection, repair and 

maintenance. In 2006, the estimated cost for medical examinations and certification would be 

$356,000, or approximately $225 per driver. In 2006, the estimated cost to create driver 

qualification files would be $319,000, or approximately $200 per file. To insure proper vehicle 

inspection, repair, and maintenance records are retained, it would cost $1,131,000 in 2006, or 

approximately $325 per vehicle. Therefore, the total cost for carriers to comply with the 

regulation would be approximately $1.8 million for 2006. 

An estimated 76 percent of 9-to-15-passenger van carriers, which are currently exempt from the 

regulations, are small businesses. The costs for including the small businesses operating 

interstate under the FMCSRs can be classified into the same three categories. In 2006, the 

estimated cost for medical examinations and certification would be $271,000, or approximately 

$225 per driver. In 2006, the estimated cost to create driver qualification files would be 

$243,000 million, or approximately $200 per file. To insure proper vehicle inspection, repair 

and maintenance records are retained, it would cost $0.86 million, or approximately $325 per 

vehicle. Therefore, the total cost for a small business carrier to comply with the regulation 

would be approximately $1.4 million for 2006. 

The for-hire 9-to-15-passenger van carriers operating interstate and further than 75-air-miles 

from the driver’s reporting location, became subject to the FMCSRs in late 2003. Using the 

fatal-crash-to-crash ratio and the injury-crash-to-crash ratio, and calculating the ratios for the 

biennium before and after the regulations, the data show that the second biennium had a 

40 percent lower fatal ratio and a 10 percent lower injury ratio. Private and for-hire carriers 

operating within 75-air-miles of their normal work reporting location (and not subject to the 

FMCSRs), showed no similar reduction; the reduction was attributed to regulatory effectiveness. 

A sensitivity analysis was performed by estimating the lower and upper bound on the number of 

affected carriers and on the ability to estimate the regulatory effect. The standard deviation for 

the number of carriers was estimated to be 25 percent and the standard deviation of the 

regulatory effect was estimated at 42 percent. The standard deviation for the regulatory effect 

encompassed the standard deviation for carrier numbers. Even considering the large uncertainty, 

the results show that the regulations have significantly reduced the fatal and injury crash ratios. 

For 2006, the estimated benefits of applying the proposed rule outweigh the costs of complying 

with the regulation by 40 to 1. Over a ten-year analysis period, the benefit-cost ratio would be 

 iv
47 to 1. Even after considering the uncertainty in the numbers that went into the estimate, the 

lowest benefit-cost ratio calculated was 7.6 to 1. Thus it is believed that the positive benefit-cost 

ratio is significant. 

If the FMCSRs are applied to all interstate carriers that are small businesses and are currently not 

covered by the regulations, an estimated 10 fatalities and 89 injuries will be prevented each year. 

If 10 fatalities are avoided, costs would be reduced by $40 million. If 89 injuries are avoided, 

costs would be reduced by $18 million. A total reduction of $58 million for fatality and injury 

damages would be saved each year. 

A variety of measures were considered for evaluating the regulatory effectiveness. By far the 

most sensitive measures found were the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio and the injury-crash-to-crash 

ratio. The large effect observed—a 40 percent difference for the fatal ratio and a 10 percent 

difference for the injury ratio—could only be attributed to regulatory effectiveness. The fatal 

and injury crash ratios should be considered when attempting to evaluate the effectiveness of 

new regulations. 

Recommendations 

This project has confirmed that a rulemaking to implement section 4136 of SAFETEA-LU 

would not only be cost-effective, but would also result in the avoidance of fatalities and serious 

injuries. 

To further increase the safety of 9-to-15-passenger vans, improvements in driver capabilities 

should be made. Upgraded driver training programs should be investigated and implemented. 

A large proportion of roadside inspections occur at weigh stations and 9-to-15-passenger vans 

are not required to stop. Consequently, FMCSA should consider devoting additional resources 

to ensure that a greater percentage of these motor carriers are subject to inspections. One 

potential approach would be to target these carriers parked at such facilities as tourist 

destinations and passenger pickup locations. 

Additional research should be conducted to collect data and analyze the operational and safety 

performance of the industry. Many carriers involved in this industry are currently unaccounted 

for, and many are not complying with the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulations even when 

operating in interstate commerce beyond the 75-air-mile threshold. 

One of the major uncertainties associated with this study was the underreporting of reportable 

9-to-15-passenger van accidents. FMCSA should study ways to increase the percentage of these 

accidents that are reported in MCMIS. Until this is done, uncertainties in assessments of 

regulatory changes directed at improving the safety of 9-to-15-passenger van operations will 

continue to be significant. 

 v
1.0 INTRODUCTION 

This report presents the results of a project entitled “The Applicability of Federal Motor Carrier 

Safety Regulations (FMCSRs) to 9-to-15-Passenger Vans Operating Interstate for Direct 

Compensation,” a project sponsored by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration 

(FMCSA). The report investigates the regulatory impact on small businesses from eliminating 

the 75-air-mile criterion from the applicability of FMCSA’s Final Rule issued on August 12, 

2003. This report provides an important new resource to estimate the number of motor carriers, 

drivers, and vehicles that would be subject to implementing regulations to address the provisions 

of Section 4136 of SAFETEA-LU, as codified in 49 U.S.C. 31136. The study team’s work 

generates a range of estimates of the regulated entities using new and innovative techniques. The 

report also draws upon information obtained from important stakeholders in the crash 

reconstruction experts, van operators, and State regulatory communities – communities with 

whom the FMCSA has rarely, if ever, communicated in the past. Finally, it provides a 

framework to estimate the benefits and cost of implementing such a regulation. 

1.1 Project Methodology 

Battelle assembled and led a project team that included the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance 

(CVSA) and the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI). The work 

performed for the study involved conducting a literature review; collecting data from the States 

and other sources; and developing a plan and questionnaire to interview and collect data and 

information from State agencies, stakeholders, and experts concerning 9-to-15-passenger van 

operations and safety. All information obtained was examined and loaded into safety and 

economic models to determine the benefits and costs that could be expected from 

implementation of the potential regulation eliminating the less than 75-air-mile from the driver’s 

reporting location exemption for the FMCSRs for for-hire 9-to-15-passenger vans operating in 

interstate commerce. 

1.1.1 Literature and Data Search 

The literature search for this project focused on gathering literature, sources, studies, reports, and 

data relating to crashes and associated injuries, fatalities, property damage, and operational and 

regulatory issues for small passenger-carrying vehicles. Data sources included the Buses 

Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) and the Motor Carrier Management Information System 

(MCMIS) Crash File, Registration, and Inspection databases. The team also searched for studies 

and safety-related databases maintained by State motor carrier agencies including crash/accident, 

inspection, operational, and regulatory data. The team queried each State to identify these data 

and consequently was able to use State databases including ones for Texas and California that 

provided the Battelle team with insights into the operational and safety issues related to 9-to-15-

passenger van operations. 

Battelle also reviewed technical material including data, reports, studies, and articles from such 

Federal sources as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), Federal 

 1 
Highway Administration (FHWA), and National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), and 

associations such as the Taxicab, Limousine & Paratransit Association (TLPA) and the 

Community Transportation Association of America (CTAA). Battelle also used its Technical 

Information Center to conduct a search for relevant materials found in electronic databases 

covering collections in major university libraries. The information and data collected during this 

phase of the project provided the primary inputs for the characterization of the industry presented 

in the report. 

1.1.2 Interviews with Nine Entities Concerning 9-to-15-Passenger Van 

Operational Factors and Costs for Safety Regulation Implementation 

The Battelle team identified respondents, developed a questionnaire, and interviewed experts at 

the States and van/bus associations to provide an overview of how vans operate and the 

significance of particular operational factors to safety. Carriers also were interviewed to collect 

cost data related to the implementation of the FMCSRs. The interviews were conducted among 

representatives from the following groups: 

• State regulatory agencies such as Arizona, California, and Texas 

• Industry associations, such as the Community Transportation Association of America 

(CTAA), and the Taxicab, Limousine & Paratransit Association (TLPA) 

• National Safety Council (NSC) 

• Selected 9-to-15-passenger van carrier operations 

For passenger van carriers, the team interviewed company officials responsible for understanding 

overall operational issues, elements contributing to the safety of their operations, and the cost 

impacts for implementing the FMCSRs. 

1.1.3 Interviews with Nine Entities Concerning Vehicle Condition, Maintenance, 

and Driver Training as Contributing Factors in Crashes Involving 9-to-15-

Passenger Vans 

Battelle identified respondents, prepared a questionnaire focused on developing a more in-depth 

understanding of the factors relating to small passenger-carrying van crashes and van 

maintenance by collecting information on more qualitative aspects of small passenger van safety. 

The Battelle team conducted interviews from the following groups: 

• Selected State regulatory agencies with specialized knowledge of van operations 

• National experts in crash reconstruction and data analysis 

• Maintenance experts 

For State motor carrier safety agencies, interviews were conducted with those individuals 

responsible for regulating passenger vans and/or responsible for carrier compliance to safety 

regulations. Crash reconstruction and maintenance experts were selected for interviews based on 

 2 
their experience with 9-to-15-passenger van crash investigations or maintenance issues. All 

interviews were conducted by teleconference. 

1.1.4 Safety and Economic Analyses 

The data and information obtained in earlier stages of the project were used to develop the safety 

and economic models needed to determine the potential benefit-cost ratio for implementing the 

FMCSRs for for-hire motor carriers that operate 9-to-15-passenger vans in interstate commerce 

within a 75-air-mile radius of the drivers’ normal work-reporting location. This is the target 

population for the analysis because they are currently not covered by the FMCSRs and are 

proposed to be covered by the FMCSRs under the planned regulation. The data were analyzed to 

determine if there were statistically identifiable benefits related to 9-to-15-passenger van 

carriers’ compliance with the FMCSRs. The primary benefits are the safety impacts of the 

prevention of injury and fatalities related to the potential adoption of FMCSRs that are applicable 

to the target population: for hire motor carriers that operate 9-to-15-passenger vans in interstate 

commerce within a 75-air-mile radius of drivers’ normal work reporting location. The primary 

costs are those related to carrier expenses required to comply with the potential regulation. 

1.2 Background 

FMCSA issued several regulations to respond to the conditions of the Transportation Equity Act 

for the 21st Century (TEA-21) and the Motor Carrier Safety Improvement Act of 1999 (MCSIA). 

The purpose of these regulations is to improve the operational safety of all for-hire motor carriers 

that operate small passenger-carrying vehicles. The subsections below summarize the history of 

the safety regulations applicable to this project. 

1.2.1 History of Regulations 

Section 204 of the Motor Carrier Safety Act (MCSA) of 1984 defined a “commercial motor 

vehicle” (CMV) as: one having a gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 10,001 pounds or 

more; designed to transport more than 15 passengers, including the driver; or transporting 

hazardous materials (HM) in quantities requiring the vehicle to be placarded. This definition, 

codified at 49 U.S.C. 31132, was the basis for the regulatory definition of a CMV in 49 CFR 

390.5, which determines the jurisdictional limits and applicability of most of the FMCSRs. The 

Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, in a report which accompanied the 

MCSA stated: “The 10,000-pound limit, which is in the current BMCS [Bureau of Motor 

Carrier Safety, now the FMCSA] regulations, is proposed to focus enforcement efforts and 

because small vans and pickup trucks are more analogous to automobiles than to medium and 

heavy commercial vehicles, and can best be regulated under State automobile licensing, 

inspection, and traffic surveillance procedures.” 

Although the MCSA demonstrated congressional intent to focus the applicability of the FMCSRs 

on larger vehicles, Congress did not repeal Section 204 of the Motor Carrier Safety Act of 1935. 

 3 
This statute, now codified at 49 U.S.C. 31502, authorizes the FMCSA to regulate the safety of all 

for-hire motor carriers of passengers or property without respect to the weight or passenger 

capacity of the vehicles they operate. 

When the Congress enacted the Commercial Motor Vehicle Safety Act (CMVSA) of 1986 to 

require implementation of a single, classified commercial driver’s license program, it also 

limited the motor vehicles subject to the program to those designated to transport more than 

15 passengers, including the driver. This, too, revealed the congressional policy of applying 

available Federal motor carrier safety resources to larger vehicles. 

The ICC Termination Act of 1995 (ICCTA) changed the MCSA’s definition of a commercial 

motor vehicle. As amended, 49 U.S.C. 31132(1) defined a commercial motor vehicle as one 

that is “designed or used to transport passengers for compensation, but excludes vehicles 

providing taxicab service and having a capacity of not more than 6 passengers and not operated 

on a regular route or between specified places; (or) is designed or used to transport more than 

15 passengers, including the driver, and is not used to transport passengers for compensation.” 

The ICCTA authorized, but did not require, the FHWA to change the FMCSRs. Accordingly, 

the agency did not incorporate the amended language into the CMV definition in 49 CFR 390.5. 

The agency notes that the ICCTA included the phrase “designed or used” in specifying the 

passenger-carrying threshold for the FMCSRs. This change was intended to make the FMCSRs 

applicable based upon the number of passengers in the vehicle or the number of designated 

seating positions, whichever is greater. In other words, a bus designed to carry 13 people but 

actually carrying 18 would be subject to the FMCSRs. 

Section 4008(a) (2) of the TEA-21 again amended the passenger-vehicle component of the CMV 

definition in 49 U.S.C. 31132(1). Section 4008 also changed the weight threshold in the CMV 

definition by adding “gross vehicle weight” (GVW) to the previous “gross vehicle weight 

rating.” The agency is now able to exercise its jurisdiction based on the GVW or GVWR, 

whichever is greater. “Commercial motor vehicle” is now defined to mean a self-propelled or 

towed vehicle used on the highways in interstate commerce to transport passengers or property, 

If the vehicle – 

(a) Has a gross vehicle weight rating or gross vehicle weight of at least 10,001 pounds, 

whichever is greater; 

(b) Is designed or used to transport more than 8 passengers (including the driver) for 

compensation; 

(c) Is designed or used to transport more than 15 passengers, including the driver, and is not 

used to transport passengers for compensation; or 

(d) Is used in transporting material found by the Secretary of Transportation to be hazardous 

under Section 5103 of this title and transported in a quantity requiring placarding under 

regulations prescribed by the Secretary under Section 5103. 

On December 9, 1999, the President signed the Motor Carrier Safety Improvement Act 

(MCSIA). Section 212 of the MCSIA requires that the FMCSA make its safety regulations 

 4 
applicable to: (1) Commercial vans sometimes referred to as “camionetas,” and (2) those 

commercial vans operating in interstate commerce outside of commercial zones that have been 

determined to pose serious safety risks. 

On January 11, 2001, FMCSA amended the FMCSRs to adopt the statutory definition of a CMV 

found at 49 U.S.C. 31132. FMCSA also amended the FMCSRs to require that motor carriers 

operating CMVs designed or used to transport between 9 and 15 passengers (including the 

driver) for compensation to file a motor carrier identification report, mark their CMVs with a 

USDOT identification number, and maintain an accident register. The agency imposed these 

requirements to monitor the operational safety of motor carriers operating small passengercarrying vehicles for compensation. In addition, the three requirements were implemented to 

help the agency compile information on the number of motor carriers operating small passengercarrying vehicles for compensation, the locations of their principal places of business, the 

number of vehicles operated, and the number of drivers employed. Through marking the 

vehicles with USDOT identification numbers, State agencies will be able to identify small 

passenger-carrying vehicles and collect accident data for submission to the FMCSA through the 

agency’s SAFETYNET database. 

On August 12, 2003, FMCSA issued a Final Rule that amended the FMCSRs to require that 

motor carriers operating CMVs, designed or used to transport between 9 and 15 passengers 

(including the driver) in interstate commerce, must comply with the applicable safety regulations 

when they are directly compensated for such services and the vehicle is operated beyond a 

75-air-mile radius (86.3 statute miles or 138.9 kilometers) from the driver’s normal work 

reporting location. The agency revised its proposed distance threshold to focus on the distance 

that the driver operates the vehicles, as opposed to the distance that the passengers are 

transported. These motor carriers, drivers, and vehicles were then, through this rule, subject to 

the same safety requirements as motor coach operators, except for the commercial driver’s 

license, and controlled substances and alcohol testing regulations. This rule implemented 

Sections 212 of the Motor Carrier Safety Improvement Act of 1999. 

1.2.2 Potential Regulations 

On August 10, 2005, Congress enacted the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation 

Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) [119 Stat. 1144]. Section 4136 of this Act 

addressed interstate van operations: 

The Federal motor carrier safety regulations that apply to interstate operations of 

commercial motor vehicles designed to transport between 9 and 15 passengers 

(including the driver) shall apply to all interstate operations of such carriers 

regardless of the distance traveled. 

FMCSA is currently evaluating how to amend the regulations to comply with this statute that 

effectively eliminates the exemption for interstate carriers operating 9-to-15-passenger vehicles 

less than 75 miles. This report will assist the FMCSA in evaluating the costs and benefits of 

 5 
 6 

amending the regulations. Table 1 shows the current and potential regulations that are applicable 

by type of motor carrier. Note that all of the regulations shown in Table 1 have precedence over 

Part 398.
Table 1. Current and Potential Regulation Application by Motor Carrier Type 

Motor Carrier Type 

Regulation

Interstate, 

For-hire 

Greater than 

75-Air-miles 

Interstate, 

For-hire 

Less than 

75-Air-miles

Interstate, 

Private 

Greater than 

75-Air-miles 

Interstate, 

Private 

Less than 

75-Air-miles 

I

§385 – Safety Fitness Procedures X 

Δ

§390 – General Applicability X X §390.15 – Assistance in Investigations and 

Special Studies X X X X 

§390.19 – Motor Carrier Identification Report X X X X §390.21 – Marking of CMVs X X X X §391.15 – Disqualification of Drivers X X X X §391.21 – Application for Employment X 

Δ

§391.23 – Driver Investigation and Inquiries X 

Δ

§391.25 – Annual Review of Driver Records X 

Δ

§391.27 – Record of Violations X 

Δ

§391.41 – Physical Qualifications for Drivers X 

Δ

§391.45 – Driver Medical Examination and 

Certification X 

Δ

§391.51 – Driver Qualification Files

X

Δ

§391.53 – Driver Investigation History File

X

Δ

§392 – Maintenance, Operation and Driving 

Requirements X 

Δ

§393 – Minimum Standards for Commercial 

Motor Vehicles X 

Δ

§395.5 – Maximum Driving Time for PassengerCarrying Vehicles X 

Δ

§395.8 – Driver's Record of Duty Status X 

Δ

1 Intrastate motor carriers operating prior to January 1, 2005, are exempted from §390.19(a) (1)  7 
Table 1. Current and Potential Regulation Application by Motor Carrier Type (Cont

 8 

Motor Carrier Type 

Regulation

Interstate, 

For-hire 

Greater than 

75-Air-miles 

Interstate, 

For-hire 

Less than 

75-Air-miles

Interstate, 

Private 

Greater than 

75-Air-miles 

Interstate, 

Private 

Less than 

75-Air-miles 

I

§396.3 – Inspection, Repair, and Maintenance 

Records Created and Stored X 

Δ

§396.5 – Lubrication X 

Δ

§396.7 – Unsafe Operations Forbidden X 

Δ

§396.9 – Inspection of Motor Vehicles in 

Operation X 

Δ

§396.11 – Driver Vehicle Inspection Reports X 

Δ

§396.13 – Driver Inspection X 

Δ

§396.15 – Driveway Towaway Operations 

Inspections X 

Δ

§396.17 – Periodic Vehicle Inspections X 

Δ

§396.19 – Inspector Qualifications X 

Δ

§396.23 – Equivalent to Periodic Inspection X 

Δ

§396.21 – Periodic Inspection Recordkeeping 

Requirements X 

Δ

§396.25 – Qualifications of Brake Inspectors X 

Δ

§398 – Transportation of Migrant Workers X 

Δ

USDOT Number Application X X 

Source: 49 CFR Parts 380-399, FMCSA, DOT Note: X denotes currently under regulation 

Δ denotes potential regulation application 
2.0 9-TO-15-PASSENGER VAN OVERVIEW 

2.1 The 9-to-15-Passenger Van Carrier Industry in the United States 

The 9-to-15-passenger van is utilized by carriers to serve a number of different markets. Private 

carriers that use these vans include churches and other religious congregations, hotels, companies 

operating employee shuttles between their facilities, and schools. These private carriers account 

for the majority of the passenger van carriers in the United States. These vans tend to be used 

locally and primarily intrastate. Of an estimated 16,000 carriers in the United States, the private 

carriers constitute about 64 percent of the total. The origin of these numbers is discussed in 

Section 3.0. 

Those carriers that use 9-15 passenger vans in interstate for-hire operations are most important 

for this analysis since they could be affected by the new rule mandating that the Federal safety 

requirements apply to for-hire carriers operating interstate within the 75-air-mile distance from 

the driver’s reporting location. The for-hire carriers are used for a number of purposes including 

transporting people to and from airports; providing transportation for tours; moving canoeists to 

and from a river; transporting people in rural areas; and moving agricultural, industrial, and service 

workers. The for-hire small passenger vans operate both intrastate and interstate; those operating 

interstate operate both within the 75-air-mile zone from the driver’s reporting location and beyond 

that distance. Therefore, these for-hire 9-to-15-passenger van carriers are currently operating both 

under the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulations and outside of the regulations. In addition, a 

number of States, including Arizona, New Mexico, California, North Dakota, Washington, and 

Nebraska, require carriers operating within that State to also operate under State-mandated safety 

regulations. These regulations are either similar or equivalent to the Federal regulations in that 

they tend to be adopted from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulations into the particular 

State’s regulations. States were not required to adopt the 2003 regulations as a condition of 

receiving Motor Carrier Safety Assistance Program (MCSAP) funds. 

2.1.1 History of 15-Passenger Van Production 

Fifteen-passenger van production began in the early 1970s to fill a unique need to transport small 

groups of people where a full-size bus would be too large, but passenger cars would be too small. 

However, instead of creating a new vehicle, most vehicle manufacturers modified their existing 

cargo vans by making the body longer and installing more seats without lengthening the wheel 

base. Three manufacturers produced 15-passenger vans: Dodge (now part of DaimlerChrylser), 

Ford, and General Motors. Ford and Dodge began production in the early 1970s; General 

Motors did not enter the market until the early 1990s. GM’s full-size van models were available 

as 2-passenger cargo vans, or as 5-, 9-, or 12-passenger vans. The following are several 

examples of 15-passenger van models: 

 9 
• Ford E-350 Super Duty XLT (Econoline and Club Wagons) 

• Dodge Ram Van B3500/Wagon B350 (1 ton)—discontinued in 2002 and replaced by the 

Dodge Sprinter. (This model is currently available in cargo and passenger 

configurations.) 

• GMC Savana/Rally 1-ton Extended 

• Chevrolet Express 1-ton Extended. 

Figure 1 shows the number of 15-passenger vans registered in the United States from 1990 to 

2002. One can observe a steady increase in the number of registrations, which resulted in more 

than three times as many 15-passenger vans registered in 2002 than in 1990. In 2002, there were 

approximately 500,000 15-passenger vans registered, which represents about 0.25 percent of the 

passenger vehicle fleets (passenger cars, light trucks, and vans) (NHTSA, May 2004). Note that 

many of these “passenger” vans are used primarily to haul cargo and such equipment as tools. 

Often, most of the seats are removed to allow for additional cargo. In many jurisdictions, a 

vehicle sold by the manufacturer without seats is classed and registered as a truck, whereas with 

seats it is classed as a station wagon. Depending on local circumstances, the classification can 

affect license fees, insurance costs, tolls, and ability to drive on non-truck routes and routinely 

park in residential neighborhoods. Moreover, sometimes used passenger vans get a new life as 

cargo vans for painters, carpet layers, and other service providers. 

Figure 1. Registered 15-Passenger Vans in U.S., 1990-2002 

2.2 For-hire 9-to-15-Passenger Van Operations 

For-hire passenger vans are emphasized in this section because any potential regulation 

developed to implement the SAFETEA-LU provision regarding the application of the Federal 

Motor Carrier Safety Regulations for carriers operating interstate and less than 75-air-miles from 

the driver’s reporting location would apply to the for-hire vans. Passenger van operations tend to 

be specialized and serve particular niche markets. 

 10 
2.2.1 Airport Ground, Tours and Charter Operations 

One important niche is providing transportation to major transportation hubs such as railroad 

stations, bus depots, and airports. Major airports are served by carriers transporting passengers 

by small passenger vans. Most major airports are served by 20 or more shuttle services and these 

provide the majority of airport passenger van transportation. However, many airports have far 

fewer services because of a limited market or by design. For example, until very recently, 

Washington Dulles airport allowed only one franchisee, Washington Flyer, to pick up 

passengers. Most of the carriers serving major airports are very small. For example, according 

to the head of an organization representing passenger carriers at airports, John Wayne Airport in 

Orange County, California, is served by 21 small passenger carriers. Of these, all are very small 

operations with the exception of Super Shuttle (Mundy, 2006). Super Shuttle is the largest 

carrier providing van service for airports and provides service to 23 airports. Airport shuttle 

companies began a process to diversify their operations after 9/11, which resulted in a reduction 

in the number of passengers using airports and a related decline in the number of passengers 

using the shuttles. Some airport shuttle companies have diversified into such activities as 

providing guided tours and serving special functions such as sporting events (Armstrong, 2003). 

Passengers travel both intrastate and interstate. The differences largely reflect the region and 

city in which a carrier is located and the relative location of the city with respect to State borders. 

For example, carriers located in cities near State borders, such as Boston, New York, 

Philadelphia, Cincinnati, and St. Louis, have a high likelihood of operating interstate. 

Furthermore, they are likely to operate within the 75-air-mile distance from the driver’s reporting 

location. On the other hand, carriers located in such cities as Columbus (Ohio), Austin, Denver, 

Phoenix, and Los Angeles, are far less likely to be engaged in interstate travel. If carriers 

operating from locations far from the State border do travel into another State, they clearly would 

not be operating within the 75-air-mile distance from the driver’s reporting location since any 

driver would have to drive more than the 75-air-mile distance (86 statute miles) just to reach the 

border of the next State. Furthermore, estimating the percentage of for-hire carriers that are 

operating both in interstate commerce and within the 75-air-mile radius is difficult to accomplish 

from data such as that found in the MCMIS Census File. According to one official of a major 

transportation association that includes operators of small passenger vans, those carriers 

operating within the 75-mile zone have little incentive to obtain a DOT number, which although 

it is a requirement in itself, carries virtually no other responsibilities. Those carriers are not 

currently subject to the FMCSRs, and would be subject to safety regulations only if their State 

has adopted compatible safety regulations. 

Vans used to transport participants of outdoor recreational tours, such as viewing the leaves 

changing in New England or transporting kayakers or canoeists for a river outing, comprise 

another important function. These types of vans often travel interstate and usually exceed the 

75-air-mile threshold. Companies specializing in guided tours usually operate more than one 

type of vehicle and often include full-size buses. 

 11 
2.2.2 Vans for Rural Communities Operations 

A larger number of carriers operate for-hire vans in predominantly rural communities. These 

operations provide bus-type services to low-income residents without personal transportation as 

well as to individuals who have physical disabilities and who are unable to drive themselves. 

Many of these carriers’ operations are subsidized by Federal grants and are operated by a local 

government agency or a nonprofit organization. However, only when the transportation service 

is contracted to a for-hire carrier would the carrier be covered by the FMCSRs. According to 

information provided by the CTAA, the overwhelming majority of these vehicles operate 

intrastate and perhaps only 10 percent would travel interstate. 

2.2.3 Vans Transporting Workers Operations 

Carriers transporting primarily agricultural, industrial, and service workers and other clients are 

among the most numerous of the carriers operating small passenger vans. These operations vary 

considerably from one another. A major center of this 9-to-15-passenger van activity is in the 

southwest. In Texas, small passenger vans are locally called “camionetas.” This term will be 

used to describe all carriers that cater to a predominantly Latino client base. David Ellis of the 

Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) defines camionetas as “15-passenger vans that operate in a 

similar fashion to a motor coach carrier in that they are carriers for-hire transporting individuals 

for a fee between predetermined points.” Ellis describes the primary routes of the camionetas in 

Texas as originating along the Mexican border and then leading to such Texas cities as Dallas, 

Houston and San Antonio as well as cities outside of the State such as Atlanta and Chicago 

(Ellis, 2001). 

A major function of camionetas is to transport Mexican and other Latino workers. According to 

a recent study in southern California, approximately half of the passengers are undocumented 

(Valenzuela, 2003). However, this percentage may vary widely. Latino and Mexican workers 

often prefer to travel in “camionetas” because the drivers are almost always Spanish-speaking, 

there is little chance that the authorities will question the riders, and the smaller vans can be more 

flexible on their routes and schedules. 

Many carriers will travel to Mexico to pick up passengers in communities some distance from 

the border. Upon arrival at the border, these passengers will usually exit the van, walk across the 

Rio Grande border bridge, clear customs, and then board the vans on the U.S. side. Obtaining a 

count of the number crossing the border is difficult because these vans are not considered to be 

commercial vehicles by U.S. Customs and therefore their numbers are not recorded. The carriers 

transport their passengers both interstate and interstate. David Ellis, who studied the van 

operations a few years ago, believes that there is more interstate travel than is readily apparent. 

When his team interviewed drivers at Border Patrol stations during his study, some would not 

admit that they were traveling interstate. Ellis was able to determine from visiting the carrier’s 

terminal that many of these small buses were indeed traveling interstate. Ellis estimates that 

approximately 30 percent of the camioneta carriers in Texas are not registering with the proper 

 12 
authorities (Ellis, 2005). These carriers often pick up passengers close to the U.S. border and 

transport them to cities located in other parts of the United States. 

Most camionetas operating in Texas are usually not inspected at the roadside by State 

transportation officials. Texas State safety regulations do not cover the small passenger vans. 

Furthermore, according to a State-based FMCSA official, although most interstate vans 

operating in States such as Texas and Arizona do fall under the Federal Motor Carrier Safety 

Regulations, Federal authorities tend to be more focused on large trucks than the small passenger 

vans. 

The great majority of these small passenger vans operate in California where they are designated 

farm labor vehicles (FLV). The farm labor vehicles are used predominantly to transport 

agricultural workers from the towns where they are living to the fields where they are working 

for that day. The estimated numbers of small passenger van carriers used to move agricultural 

workers in California are discussed in Section 3.2.4. In California, there are also an additional 

number of carriers that function as general transportation for a client population without personal 

vehicles or who do not want to use their own vehicles. The overwhelming majority of the 

passengers and drivers of these vans is also Latino. 

2.3 General Characteristics of 9-to-15 For-hire Passenger Van Carriers 

There is no single adequate source that will provide the characteristics of for-hire 

9-to-15-passenger van carriers. In fact, even using multiple sources will not provide a thorough 

and accurate portrait of the carriers. Therefore, in order to describe the general characteristics of 

9-to-15-passenger van carriers, two sources were used with each providing a partial look at some 

of the carriers’ characteristics: the MCMIS Census File, which was analyzed directly, and an 

analysis data requested from a number of small carriers. 

2.3.1 Characterizing 9-to-15 For-hire Passenger Vans Directly from 

the Census File 

The MCMIS Census File was used to characterize the population of carriers that operate 

9-to-15 for-hire passenger vans in interstate commerce within a 75-air-mile radius of base—in 

other words, the target population for this analysis. The MCMIS Census File is used for this 

purpose because at least some fraction of the target carriers should be recorded in the file. All 

interstate carriers that operate 9-to-15-passenger vans for compensation are required to file a 

motor carrier identification report, mark their vehicles with a USDOT identification number, and 

keep a register of reportable traffic accidents. Given these requirements, all carriers that fall into 

the target group—operate a 9-to-15-passenger van in interstate commerce within 100-statutemiles of the driver’s reporting location—should be found in the MCMIS Census File. 

Yet it is acknowledged that it is very likely that a significant fraction of the target carriers have 

not registered, and, therefore, will not be found in the Census File. The non-registered carriers 

 13 
may not have registered either because they did not know of the requirement, do not think they 

have a realistic chance of being caught, or are not concerned by the penalties of non-compliance. 

Therefore, it is assumed that the number of target carriers identified in the Census File 

underestimates the true number of target carriers. Note, however, that the number identified 

certainly constitutes a lower bound of the true number. 

The intent of this section is to describe the characteristics of the target population, not to estimate 

the true total population of the target carriers, which is undertaken in Section 3.0. In that sense, 

the carriers identified here may be regarded as a sample of the target population. 

Identifying the target population involved a number of decisions in using the wealth of 

information available in the MCMIS Census File. Much of the information in the Census File is 

essentially self-reported2

 and as such depends upon the interpretation of the registrant. When 

registering, carriers can choose some or all of the 12 types of carrier-type classifications 

available and up to 30 different cargo types, including passengers. Carriers may self-identify as 

both authorized for-hire and private. Moreover, many businesses are very diverse and may 

legitimately operate buses as well as a fleet of trucks. Similarly, bus companies also may operate 

trucks used for maintenance or other purposes. To identify carriers whose business it is to 

transport passengers for compensation, we selected carriers that identified themselves as 

authorized for-hire, exempt for-hire, migrant, or any combination of those classifications and

selected no other carrier classification. In addition, the carriers listed only passengers as cargo, 

and no other cargo type. 

To further refine the target population of bus carriers, Census File information was used to 

identify the area of operation (interstate or intrastate); the size of buses operated (1 to 8 

passengers, 9 to 15, and more than 15); and counts of intrastate drivers, interstate drivers 

operating within 100 miles from their normal work-reporting location and farther than 100 

statute-miles from that location. This mileage is used to categorize motor carriers’ recordkeeping methods for compliance with hours-of-service regulations; it is used here to approximate 

the 75-air-mile radius rule for compliance with safety regulations. 

Carriers that operate buses larger than 15 passengers were excluded in order to focus the analysis 

on 9-to-15-passenger vans. Such carriers already may be required to comply with Federal safety 

regulations. This exclusion eliminated 64 for-hire operators of 9-to-15-passenger buses in 

interstate commerce from the analysis. 

 

2

 Although some data items are audited and potentially corrected during compliance reviews. 

 14 
The analysis queried the Census File for for-hire carriers with the following characteristics: 

• Authorized, exempt, migrant carrier, with no other classification claimed 

• Transports only passengers 

• Operators of 9-to-15-passenger buses 

• In interstate commerce, less than 100 miles from their normal work reporting location 

(assumed equivalent to the 75-air-mile exclusion criterion) 

• Do not operate larger buses 

A total of 140 such carriers were found in the MCMIS Census File that meets the five criteria. 

These carriers will be referred to as the target group or target bus operators. The listing of these 

carriers in MCMIS must be examined within the limitations of the data in the Census File. The 

data have the following limitations: 

• Underreporting for Close-in Carriers. Many of the carriers that operate within an area of 

less than 100-miles radius in interstate commerce do not register since they are not 

currently under the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulations. 

• Underreporting Regionally. For certain States, the number of carriers listed appears to be 

lower than expected (e.g., Oregon). 

• Carriers Excluded Those Operating Larger Vehicle Types in Addition to the Vans. A 

large proportion of the 9-to-15-passenger vans are operated by carriers that also operate 

larger vehicles. 

Nevertheless, the analysis offers some insights into the nature of the passenger van carriers, 

providing a useful spatial portrait of the location of the for-hire interstate carriers and a valuable 

description of carrier size distributions. 

Figure 2 shows the distribution of target carriers by State of registry in the Census File. The 

height of the bar indicates the number of carriers based in each State. Table 2 tabulates the data 

displayed in Figure 2. The target carriers were found to be based in 34 States, plus one carrier 

located in British Columbia, Canada, and one carrier in Michoacán, Mexico. Note the 

concentration in the Northeastern States, particularly New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and 

New Hampshire, though many were also located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and 

Missouri. The States with the largest number of carriers tend to have major metropolitan areas at 

their borders. Colorado, Utah, Nevada, and California also have large tourist industries. Several 

of the States with large populations, such as California, Texas, and Florida, have very small 

numbers because there are not many carriers that would meet all the conditions for being 

included in the target group. The most restrictive conditions are probably that the carrier be 

operating in interstate commerce and operate less than 100-statute-miles from the normal workreporting location. Carriers in populous States such as New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are 

not similarly restricted by their size because there is much interstate travel, and the travel 

distances are frequently less than 100-statute-miles. 

 15 
Figure 3 shows the distribution of the 140 target carriers by total number of buses that they 

operate. All of the buses operated are either 9-to-15-passenger buses, smaller limousines, or 

smaller vans because the definition of target carriers excluded carriers that operate larger buses 

(i.e., those seating more than 15 passengers). The number of smaller buses3

 operated by some 

was notable. While all target carriers operated 9-to-15-passenger buses, some operated a 

substantial number of smaller vehicles. For about one-third of the carriers (30 out of 140), most 

of their vehicles are designed to transport fewer than nine passengers. The fleets of about 

10 percent of the carriers were 80 percent one-to-eight-passenger buses. Overall, only about 

55.6 percent of the total 1,025 buses operated were 9-to-15-passenger buses. The remainder 

were smaller. 

Source: MCMIS Census File

Figure 2. Base State of Target 9-to-15-Passenger Bus Operators 

 

3

 Note that 49 CFR 390.5 defines a bus as “any motor vehicle designed, constructed, and or used for the 

transportation of passengers, including taxicabs.” The MCMIS Census File includes counts of buses smaller than 

9 passengers. 

 16 
Table 2. Number of Carriers by Base of Operation 

State N State N 

Arizona 1 North Carolina 1 

California 4 North Dakota 3 

Colorado 7 New Hampshire 5 

Connecticut 9 New Jersey 13 

Delaware 3 New Mexico 1 

Idaho 1 Nevada 2 

Illinois 5 New York 8 

Indiana 8 Ohio 10 

Kansas 3 Pennsylvania 12 

Kentucky 1 Rhode Island 1 

Louisiana 2 South Dakota 1 

Massachusetts 7 Tennessee 1 

Maryland 6 Texas 4 

Maine 1 Utah 1 

Minnesota 2 Virginia 2 

Missouri 6 Wisconsin 4 

Mississippi 2 British Columbia 1 

Montana 1 Mexico 1 

Source: MCMIS Census File 

Source: MCMIS Census File 

Figure 3. Distribution of Target Carriers by Number of Buses Operated 

 17 
Most of the 140 target carriers are very small operations. Operators of three or fewer buses 

account for 62.9 percent of the carriers, and 90 percent operate fifteen or fewer buses. The 

largest carrier operated only 112 buses, and only four carriers operated 50 or more. 

Figure 4 shows the distribution of the 140 target carriers by the total number of drivers they used, 

including both intrastate drivers and interstate drivers within 100 miles of base. Just as in the 

number of buses, most of the carriers had only a few drivers. Over 60 percent had five or fewer 

drivers. Almost 88 percent had 19 or fewer drivers. On average, these 140 target carriers had 

1.23 drivers per bus. 

Figure 4. Distribution of Target Bus Operators by Number of Drivers 

To qualify as a target carrier for this analysis, each had to have at least one interstate driver who 

operated within 100-statute miles from their base, and none could have any interstate drivers 

who operated beyond the 100-mile limit. Both of those conditions are part of the definition of 

the group. Figure 5 shows the distribution of target carriers by the number of interstate drivers 

they used. All of the carriers had at least one driver but most had fewer than ten. However, it is 

notable that at least a handful had a substantial number of interstate drivers, with six carriers 

using 50 or more, and one using 100 interstate drivers within 100 miles of base. Figure 6 shows 

the distribution of the number of intrastate drivers employed. Note that 120 of the 140 target 

carriers listed no drivers exclusively driving intrastate. Overall, about 90 percent of the drivers 

recorded by the target carriers were listed as interstate drivers. 

 18 
Figure 5. Distribution of Target Bus Operators by the Number of Interstate Drivers 

Figure 6. Distribution of Target Bus Operators by the Number of Intrastate Drivers 

 19 
 20 

Table 3 summarizes statistics for the 140 target carriers charted in the previous figures. The 

figures more meaningfully convey the fact that these carriers are overwhelmingly small, with 

most operating fewer than five buses and employing fewer than five drivers. The largest carriers 

in the group operate fleets only slightly over 100 vehicles. Moreover, though most of the buses 

operated fall into the 9-to-15-passenger range, they also operate a substantial number of 1-to-8-

passenger buses, more commonly described as limousines or minivans. 

Table 3. Drivers and Buses of Target Carriers 

Variable Mean Std Dev Minimum Maximum 

Total buses 7.32 13.94 1 112 

Total drivers 9.01 14.65 1 100 

Buses, 1-8 passengers 3.25 8.90 0 55 

Buses, 9-15 passengers 4.07 10.80 1 112 

Interstate drivers 8.09 13.73 1 100 

Intrastate drivers 0.88 4.27 0 43 

Source: MCMIS Census File 

2.3.2 Analysis of Results from a Data Request from Small Carriers 

Approximately 80 carriers were selected from the Census File to provide data. Although the 

sample was not random, it was designed to represent the population of carriers and was selected 

to include carriers representing various sizes and geographic regions of the country. Of the 80 

carriers selected, 18 responses were obtained. Tables 4 and 5 separate respondent carrier profiles 

into two categories based on 9 responses from: motor carriers operating (1) more than 75-airmiles interstate, and (2) less than 75-miles interstate. 

The majority of respondents for both categories indicated that they do have a formal vehicle 

maintenance program. Most respondents indicated that they do not institute a safe driver 

incentive program, but safety is essential for drivers to maintain employment. 

Carriers operating greater than 75-air-miles interstate are more likely to travel greater distances 

and have vans with higher mileage. The majority of these carriers require their new drivers to 

have between 1 and 3 years of experience driving large vehicles, and are more likely to have a 

safe driver incentive program. More than 60 percent of respondents reported that they have had 

no accidents in the past 4 years. 

Approximately 40 percent of carriers operating less than 75-air-miles interstate reported no 

accidents in the past 4 years. Less than 50 percent of these respondents required drivers to have 

prior experience operating large/heavy vehicles. 
Table 4. Motor Carrier Profile – Interstate Operating in the more than 75-air-mile Ran

Motor 

Carrier 

No. of 9-15 

Passenger 

Vans 

No. of 

Other 

Buses * 

No. Drivers 

Employed to 

Drive Vans 

Typical Routes 

and Distances

Average 

Mileage on 

all Vans 

Minimum 

Years of 

Experience 

Required 

Safe Driver 

Incentive 

Programs 

Fo

Main

Pro

1 2 5 6 5 – 530 miles 139,000 3 No 2 4 5 4 165 miles (avg.) 300,000 None No 3 130 330 137 – 150 Varies 150,000 + Unknown Yes 7 1 9 18 600 miles 300,000 1 Yes 9 1 0 2 112 – 164 miles 334,000 None No 

11 18 0 70 

To 

Chattanooga, 

Nashville, or 

Atlanta airports

200,000 None Yes 

13 1 10 14 

Airport shuttle 

to Grand 

Canyon 

120,000 1 No 

14 1 0 1 2,000 miles 200,000 2 Yes 15 2 0 20 14 – 460 miles 65,000 3 No 

Source: Data collected from motor carriers (Battelle, 2006) * Other buses include limousines, motor coaches, school buses, and medium-size shuttle buses 

 21 
 22 

Table 5. Motor Carrier Profile – Interstate Operating in the less than 75-air-mile Ran

Motor 

Carrier 

No. of 9-15 

Passenger 

Vans 

No. of 

Other 

Buses * 

No. Drivers 

Employed 

to Drive 

Vans 

Typical 

Routes and 

Distances 

Average 

Mileage 

of all 

Vans 

Minimum 

Years of 

Experience 

Required 

Safe 

Driver 

Incentive 

Programs 

Fo

Main

Pro

4 8 40 8 Short, less than 75-miles 102,500 None Yes 5 3 3 9 400 miles 350,000 3 No 6 38 0 45 – 50 45 – 100 miles 30,000 None No 8 1 3 10 50 miles 40,000 4 No 

10 4 32 1 – 6 Around Niagara Falls None Yes 12 5 15 6 

15 – 20 miles 

from rafting 

center to 

launch points 

Unsure None No 

16 1 7 9 100 miles 40,000 1 No 17 35 45 150 3 – 100 miles 50,000 18 6 7 10 5 – 15 miles 40,600 None No 

Source: Data collected from motor carriers (Battelle, 2006) * Other buses include limousines, motor coaches, school buses, and medium-size shuttle buses 
While this was not a scientific survey, in general, carriers operating interstate greater than 75-airmiles were found to operate slightly more safely than those operating less than 75 miles. That 

more respondents in the greater-than 75-air-mile category stated that they had no accidents in the 

past four years, had a safe driver incentive program, and required drivers to have a minimum 

number of years of experience suggests that these companies may be exercising a stronger 

degree of safety oversight than companies operating in the less than 75-mile category. If this is 

true, it could be because those for-hire motor carriers operating passenger vehicles in interstate 

commerce beyond a 75-air-mile radius are subject to the FMCSRs. 

 23 
3.0 ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF 9-TO-15-PASSENGER 

VAN MOTOR CARRIERS 

There are no data sources with comprehensive statistics on the number of 9-15 passenger van 

carriers. Industry experts and knowledgeable State and Federal transportation officials were 

unable to provide an estimate due to the lack of accurate and reliable data. Consequently, 

estimates of 9-to-15-passenger van motor carriers were developed using other methods. This 

section estimates the: 

• Overall number of motor carriers 

• Number of for-hire and private carriers 

• Number of for-hire carriers that operate interstate and intrastate 

• Number of for-hire carriers that operate interstate < 75-air-miles and would be affected 

by the proposed rule 

One important source for data about carriers is the MCMIS Census File. However, this data 

source has limited value for developing an estimate of the overall number of 9-to-15-passenger 

van motor carriers because it includes only those carriers that have registered for a DOT number, 

which all for-hire interstate small passenger van carriers are required to obtain. Consequently, 

the Census File should include a list of interstate carriers currently covered under the FMCSRs 

and those not covered. Those carriers that travel interstate and provide transportation for 

compensation (“for-hire”) beyond 75-air-miles from the driver’s reporting location are subject to 

the FMCSRs. These carriers have a strong incentive to register and are likely to be included in 

the Census File. On the other hand, although for-hire interstate motor carriers of passengers 

traveling less than the 75-air-miles in interstate commerce are required to register and to obtain 

public liability insurance, they are not subject to Parts 390-399 of the FMCSRs. Therefore, they 

have little incentive to obtain a DOT number. According to an official of a major small 

passenger van organization, there are far fewer carriers that travel within the 75-mile zone 

actually registered than should be registered if they were following the current regulations. 

Intrastate small passenger van carriers are not required to register for a DOT number. 

Consequently, this major group usually does not appear in the Census File. Clearly, the MCMIS 

Census File could not be used by itself to estimate the number of carriers. 

In order to estimate the number of 9-to-15-passenger van companies operating in the United 

States, a two-pronged approach was followed. First, the number of crashes in MCMIS was used 

to estimate the overall number of motor carriers using the approach outlined in Section 3.1. The 

number of carriers was estimated using the number of crashes involving 9-to-15-passenger vans 

and then working backwards to assume that applying a certain crash rate, there would be an 

expected number of vans traveling on the highways and consequently the number of carriers 

could be estimated. Second, in order to estimate the number of for-hire carriers, data were 

obtained from organizations that represent most 9-to-15-passenger van carriers. Data from the 

TLPA and the Community Transportation Association of America (CTAA) were used. In 

addition, the number of small passenger vans (camionetas) that transport primarily agricultural, 

 24 
industrial, service workers and other clients were estimated from data and information collected 

from interviews with State officials and pertinent literature sources. 

3.1 Overall Motor Carrier Estimate Using the Crash File 

While the MCMIS Census File could produce an estimate of the number of interstate carriers 

that would be affected by the proposed regulation, this estimate would be inaccurate because 

many existing carriers are not registered. While the Census File may have higher registration 

rates in certain categories, the Crash File should be less biased since all reportable accidents are 

supposed to be reported to MCMIS no matter whether the carrier is interstate or intrastate. 

Therefore, the number of accidents from the Crash File will be used along with an accident rate 

and the carrier mileage to estimate the total number of carriers. Additional information on the 

breakdown of interstate and intrastate carriers also will be provided. The following steps explain 

in more detail how this calculation was performed: 

• Step 1. Determine number of reportable accidents from MCMIS Crash File. The 

MCMIS Crash File was queried to find the crashes involving a vehicle with a vehicle 

configuration of “3=Bus (Seats for 9 to 15 People, Including Driver)” and a cargo body 

of “1=Bus (seats for 9 to 15 people, including driver).” This included both carriers with 

DOT numbers and without and therefore represented both intrastate and interstate 

carriers. Five years of data were queried from 2001 to 2005. The average number of 

crashes per year for these types of vehicles was 670. 

• Step 2. Adjust the number of reportable accidents to account for underreporting. 

Several studies from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 

(UMTRI) have indicated that crashes to MCMIS are under-reported. Therefore, a 

reporting rate of 27.6 percent for buses was used to adjust the number of crashes to one 

which would represent a 100 percent reporting rate. See Appendix A for details on how 

the reporting rate was derived. 

• Step 3. Adjust the number of crashes to convert from reportable accidents to all crashes. 

MCMIS defines recordable crashes as an accident involving a fatality, an injury requiring 

hospitalization, or having a vehicle towed away. Since an accident rate that includes all 

accidents will be used later, the MCMIS crashes should be adjusted to represent all 

crashes, not just recordable ones. Appendix B presents an analysis by UMTRI using 

General Estimates System (GES) data, which found that 27.34 percent of the accidents 

involving vans are recordable. 

• Step 4. Find the average carrier mileage from MCMIS Census File. During compliance 

reviews, carrier mileage is recorded. This can be found in the MILETOT field in the 

MCMIS Census File. A query was performed to find mileage for 287 carriers that own 

9-to-15-passenger vans. After excluding all of the blank and zero mileages, an average of 

615,770 vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per carrier per year was calculated. 

 25 
• Step 5. Find an accident rate. The accident rate information in the MCMIS Census File 

was found to be unreliable due to inconsistencies in methods used to calculate the number 

of accidents and mileage. Therefore, an accident rate for passenger carriers was obtained 

from a report by the University of Maryland entitled, Motor Carrier Industry Profile: 

Safety Performance Differences Among Major Segments. This report provided an 

accident rate of 0.91 crashes/million VMT for for-hire passenger carriers and 0.13 

crashes/million VMT for private passenger carriers. An average of these two numbers 

resulted in an overall accident rate of 0.52 crashes/million VMT. 

• Step 6. Calculate the total number of carriers. The total number of inter- and intrastate 

carriers was calculated using the adjusted number of crashes, average mileage, and 

accident rate. The following calculation shows how this was obtained and also aligns the 

units to properly cancel. An alternative way to view the calculation is presented in 

Table 6, which also gives the source of each piece of information. 

carriers 27,730 VMT 615,770

year*carrier *

crashes 0.52

VMT 1,000,000 *

year

crashes 8,879 =

• Step 7. Distribute the total number of carriers among categories. 

o For-hire/Private. This was obtained from the MCMIS Census File. Any carrier 

with operational classification A or B was considered for-hire, even if the other 

carrier classes were listed. Appendix C contains form MCS-150, where carriers 

are asked to identify this classification and other information. Approximately 

64 percent of 9-to-15-passenger van companies were found to be private, while 

36 percent were found to be for-hire. 

o Interstate/Intrastate. This was obtained from the Census Crash File. Crashes 

involving a carrier without a DOT number were assumed to be intrastate, while 

crashes involving a carrier with a DOT number were assumed to be interstate. It 

should be noted that 200 carriers that were originally classified as intrastate (since 

they did not have a DOT number) were found to be involved in a crash in a State 

other than the one in which it was registered. Since this group of carriers was 

found to be traveling interstate (during the crash) they were subtracted from the 

“intrastate” category and added to the “interstate” category. Approximately 

72 percent of carriers were found to be intrastate, while 28 percent were found to 

be interstate. 

 26 
Table 6. Calculation of Total Number of Carriers 

Description Amount Units Reference 

Average Crashes 670 crashes/year 

Battelle MCMIS analysis of 

Crash File including null 

DOT numbers 

Reporting Rate 27.6 percent UMTRI 

Percent Recordable 27.34 percent UMTRI 

Adjusted for Underreporting 2,428 crashes/year Calculation 

Adjusted from Recordable to 

All Crashes 8,879 crashes/year Calculation 

Average Mileage 615,770 VMT/(carrier*year) Battelle MCMIS analysis of 

Census File 

Crash Rate 0.52 crashes/million VMT Motor Carrier Industry Profile, 

University of Maryland 

Crashes/Carrier 0.3202 crashes/(carrier*year) Calculation 

Carriers 27,730 carriers Calculation 

Table 7 applies the percentage breakdowns from Step 7 to the total number of carriers calculated 

in Step 6. This provides a general descriptive picture of the industry, but does not provide the 

level of detail necessary to determine the number of carriers that will fall under the potential 

regulation. Therefore, Section 3.2 provides a more detailed estimate using other sources. 

Table 7. Estimate of Interstate/Intrastate Carriers 

 

For-hire 

Companies 

Private 

Companies Total 

Interstate 2,800 5,000 7,900 

Intrastate 7,200 12,700 19,900 

Total 10,000 17,700 27,700 

Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 

3.2 For-hire Estimate Using Interview Sources 

While the analysis in Section 3.1 provided an estimate for the total number of 9-to-15-passenger 

van carriers, it did not provide enough detail to determine how many would be subject to the 

proposed regulation. In order to obtain this level of detail, information about how many of the 

carriers travel interstate within a 75-air-mile radius must be known. This analysis combines 

estimates of 9-to-15-passenger van companies from three industry segments. It is believed that 

 27 
most of the population of for-hire 9-to-15-passenger vans comes from one of the following 

industry segments: 

• Airport Ground, Tours and Charter Transportation Segment. Estimate from interview 

with TLPA. 

• Vans for Rural Communities Transportation Segment. Estimate from CTAA.

• Camionetas (small passenger vans that transport primarily agricultural, industrial, and 

service workers). Estimate based on interviews with State officials, pertinent literature 

sources, and professional judgment. 

3.2.1 Airport Ground, Tours and Charter Transportation Segment 

The TLPA estimates that their members comprise approximately 12,000 carriers. Of these, 

62 percent, or about 7,440, operate at least one 9-to-15-passenger van. Therefore, in the United 

States there is a core of approximately 7,440 carriers that are operating at least one for-hire 

9-to-15-passenger van. Data from the TLPA indicate that the average company has two vans in 

operation and an average of about three drivers. These 7,400 companies are dispersed into the 

following regions: New England, Middle Atlantic, South, Midwest, Plains States, Southwest and 

Pacific States. For each region, the TLPA breaks out carriers in their membership. 

The following method was used to estimate the percentage of these carriers that are being 

operated intrastate, interstate within the 75-air-mile zone and not covered by the Federal safety 

regulations, and interstate and subject to the FMCSRs. First, the percentage of carriers that 

operate interstate within the 75-air-mile zone was estimated based on the region where the 

carriers are located. For example, for New England, it is assumed that a large percentage of the 

carriers would be operating interstate, less than 75 miles, because States are small and the major 

cities are located close to borders where they can operate interstate within the 75-mile criterion. 

This estimate was set at 40 percent. For the Midwest, centers of passenger van activity were 

located both in cities close to State borders and in those with more central locations. For the 

Midwest, the percentage of carriers operating interstate less than 75-air-miles was estimated to 

be 20 percent. A number of major cities such as Des Moines and Columbus are located centrally 

and far from a State border, but a number of cities, such as Chicago and St. Louis, are adjacent or 

close to State borders. For the Pacific States, on the other hand, it was assumed that because of 

the large size of California that only a small percentage of the carriers (10 percent) would operate 

interstate because of the location of several major cites far from State borders. The great 

majority of the carriers would be operating intrastate and when they operated interstate they 

would be traveling more than 75-air-miles from the driver’s reporting location to reach another 

State. 

Table 8 provides the estimates of the number of airport ground, tours, and charter passenger van 

carriers using data from the TLPA. 

 28 
Table 8. Estimate of For-hire Airport, Tours, Charter Carriers 

Company 

Location Total1

At least 

one van 

(62%)1

% Under 

New 

Regulation*

# Under 

New 

Regulation 

New England 1,176 729 40.0% 292 

Mid-Atlantic 3,024 1,875 30.0% 562 

South 2,748 1,704 15.0% 256 

Midwest 1,776 1,101 20.0% 220 

Plains 660 409 15.0% 61 

Southwest 492 305 5.0% 15 

Mountain West 588 365 5.0% 18 

Pacific 1,536 952 5.0% 48 

TOTAL 12,000 7,440 1,472 

1Source: Taxicab, Limousine & Paratransit Association (TLPA) 

*Based on analysis of the location of major van company movements 

3.2.2 Vans for Rural Communities Transportation Sector 

The Community Transportation Association of America (CTAA) estimated that they have about 

1,215 members that provide passenger services for predominantly rural and small communities. 

The organizations operating these transport systems include communities, other governmental 

entities such as counties, and non-profit organizations. However, only 231 of the transportation 

systems are operated by for-hire carriers. The association further estimated that of these about 

23 might be operating interstate and would be eligible to be included within those motor carriers 

that could become subject to the FMCSRs. 

3.2.3 Vans Transporting Workers, “Camionetas,” Transportation Sector 

Small passenger vans classified as “camionetas” for this report and serving predominantly 

agricultural, industrial, and other service workers were judged to be dominated by the farm labor 

vehicles (FLV) in California. Based on crash records for FLVs in California, the project team 

estimated that approximately 1,200 carriers were operating in California and transporting 

predominantly Latino farm workers by small passenger vans. This estimate was reinforced by 

the estimated 1,200 farm labor contractors in 2000 presented in an article in Rural Migration 

News (2000). A large percentage of these farm labor contractors (FLC) operate 9-to-15-

passenger vans as a way to transport farm workers to the fields where they are working on a 

particular day. Carriers of migrant workers operating 9-to-15-passenger vehicles for direct 

compensation in interstate commerce are subject to the requirements of the FMCSRs when the 

motor vehicle is operated beyond a 75-air-mile radius from the driver’s normal work reporting 

location. The California Institute of Rural Studies estimated that in 1992, 53 percent of farm 

workers hired by the FLCs received transportation from either the FLC, his foreman or hired 

 29 
drivers known as raiteros (Sherman, 1996). In California, there were also another 200 carriers 

functioning as camionetas and located in urban settings such as Los Angeles. 

Outside California, there were an estimated additional 500 carriers operating camionetas in a 

number of States, but primarily Texas. In Texas, although there are no accurate numbers 

available that could be used to determine the number of camioneta carriers operating in the State, 

one source estimates that there are perhaps 90 companies operating out of Houston alone 

(Borden, 2005). For the entire State, there are an estimated 200 camioneta carriers currently in 

operation. Other States with a significant number of camioneta carriers include Arizona, New 

Mexico, and Florida. 

3.2.4 Summary of Estimate of For-hire Van Companies 

Table 9 combines the estimates of the number of for-hire van companies from each of the 

three industry segments. It should be noted that the total number of for-hire companies 

(9,571 companies) is similar to the estimate of for-hire van companies from Section 3.1 

(10,000 companies). These estimates will be used to calculate the costs of the potential 

regulation in Section 5.0. 

Table 9. Estimate of For-hire Van Companies Under New Regulation 

 

Total 

% Under 

New 

Regulations 

# Under 

New 

Regulation

Vans/ 

Company 

Drivers/ 

Van 

Airport Ground, 

Tours, and 

Charter1 

7,440 19.8% 1,472 2 1.3

Rural 

Communities2 231 10%2 23 8 1.6

“Camioneta”3 1,900 5.00% 95 4 1.3

Total 9,571 15.98% 1,590 2.54 1.31

Lower Bound4 795 

Upper Bound4 2,385 

1 Source: Taxicab, Paratransit and Limousine Association 

2 Source: Community Transportation Association of America 

3 Based on estimate of 200 companies operating in Texas; 1,400 in California; and 300 in other States; 

professional judgment based on interviews with State and Federal officials, knowledge of the literature and 

examination of crash data. 

4 Assumes a range of 50 percent above and below the total, which represents 2 standard deviations to give a 

95 percent confidence level. 

 30 
The estimate of the number of carriers that could be affected by the proposed regulation is 

uncertain. The estimated uncertainty is plus or minus 25 percent. If this is assumed to be the 

standard deviation of the data, and using the normal distribution, the 2σ (Sigma) level or 

95 percent confidence level would be plus or minus 50 percent. Thus, at the 95 percent 

confidence level, the number of carriers that would come under the proposed regulation would 

range from 795 to 2,385 carriers. 

 31 
4.0 SMALL PASSENGER VAN SAFETY 

4.1 Literature Review 

4.1.1 General Safety Compared to Other Highway Transport 

According to the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), between 1991 and 2000, 

9-to-15-passenger vans were involved in about 0.22 percent of all fatal accidents and 0.24 

percent of all single-vehicle fatal accidents. Since they make up 0.25 percent of all vehicles in 

the United States, on a per-vehicle basis, they are actually involved in slightly less than the 

average number of fatal accidents (Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, 2005). 

However, the 9-to-15-passenger vans do experience a number of specific safety problems. 

Foremost among them is a higher incidence of rollover when compared to smaller vans or small 

passenger vehicles. 

4.1.2 Safety Concerns that FMCSA Regulations May Address 

There are a variety of safety concerns for 9-to-15-passenger vans; those that may be improved by 

FMCSA regulations are described in the following paragraphs. 

Driver experience with unique vehicle-handling characteristics. Several NTSB documents 

discuss how the handling characteristics of 15-passenger vans are different than regular 

passenger cars. They note that especially when vans are fully loaded or during emergency 

situations, such as a tire blowout, these types of vans react differently. Several accidents have 

shown that drivers’ instinctive reactions to tire blowouts may be inappropriate for the situation if 

they apply the brakes and oversteer while attempting to regain control of the vehicle. The NTSB 

states that drivers of 15-passenger vans need additional training to acquire a knowledge and skill 

level different from and above that for passenger vehicles. 

Vehicle loading. The likelihood of a rollover crash significantly increases when 10 or more 

people ride in a 15-passenger van. The likelihood increases because the additional passenger 

weight causes the van’s center of gravity to raise and shift rearward. When the van is not full, 

this shift can be circumvented if passengers are forced to sit in seats that are in front of the rear 

axle (NHTSA, May 2004). 

Tire pressure. NHTSA found that almost 75 percent of all 15 passenger vans had improperly 

inflated tires. In comparison, only 39 percent of passenger cars had improperly inflated tires 

(American Bus Association, http://www.buses.org/press_room/the_report_newsletter/1060.cfm). 

The NTSB believes that two of the 15 passenger van accidents they investigated were caused by 

under-inflated tires. The NTSB also notes that infrequent use and exposure to sun and weather 

can make low-mileage tires deteriorate. According to NHTSA research, improperly inflated tires 

can change the handling characteristics and increase the chances of rollovers. However, one 

study found that tire inflation pressures up to 25 percent below the recommended inflation level 

noted on the vehicle’s tire safety label should not have a significant adverse affect on vehicle 

 32 
handling (NHTSA, June 2004). Yet, the Tire Industry Association (TIA) believes that pressures 

up to 25 percent below the tire’s recommended cold inflation pressure are unsafe and should be 

tied to the vehicle’s placard and gross axle weight rating (GAWR)(TIA, 2004). 

Safety belt use. In a number of accidents investigated by the NTSB, occupants that were riding 

in a 9-to-15-passenger van involved in an accident were not wearing safety belts. In general, 

those wearing safety belts when the accident occurred sustained less severe injuries and were less 

likely to be ejected from the vehicle. An accident simulation for one accident showed that 

during an overturn “head, neck, and thorax injuries were not predicted for simulated occupants 

wearing lap/shoulder belts” (Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, 2005). 

4.1.3 Other Safety Concerns 

While not subject to the FMCSRs, the following concerns are of interest because they amplify 

the importance of other safety concerns. 

Lack of passenger protection due to roof crush. In an NTSB investigation of a 15-passenger 

van rollover accident in Henrietta, Texas, investigators found that roof crush left only 4 to 6 

inches of space above each row of passenger seats, while there was 18 to 21 inches of space 

originally available. The injuries in this accident were more severe than injuries from another 

rollover accident that did not sustain similar roof crush damage due to vehicle dynamics during 

the rollover sequence. Later in this report, the NTSB recommended that NHTSA “should 

include 12- and 15-passenger vans in FMVSS 216, “Roof Crush Resistance” to minimize the 

extent to which survivable space is compromised in the event of a rollover accident”(NTSB, July 

2003). 

Rollover propensity. Rollover propensity in the vans is due to a high and rearward 

center of gravity when fully loaded. When compared to passenger cars or smaller vans, the 

likelihood of 15-passenger vans rolling over in an accident is much greater because 15-passenger 

vans have a greater payload capacity, passengers sit higher up than in other vehicle types, and, 

when fully loaded, the center of gravity shifts up and rearward. Table 10 uses data from a 2001 

NHTSA study to show that the rollover propensity of 15-passenger vans in single vehicle 

accidents increases with occupancy level. 

 33 
Table 10. Rollover Propensity of 15-Passenger Vans by Occupancy Level 

Occupancy 

Level 

All 

Single-vehicle 

Accidents 

All 

Rollovers 

Rollover 

Ratio 

Combined 

Rollover Ratio 

Less than 5 1,815 224 12.3% 

5 – 9 77 16 20.8% 

12.7% 

10 – 15 55 16 29.1% 

Over 15 10 7 70% 

35.4% 

Source: NHTSA, 2001 

The Static Stability Factor (SSF) is lower for 15-passenger vans. SSF is the at-rest calculation 

of rollover resistance based on track width (t) and center of gravity height (h). The formula is 

SSF = t/2h. A higher SSF value indicates a more stable vehicle. Table 11 shows the SSF for a 

minivan, seven-passenger van, and a 15-passenger van when it has a lightly loaded weight 

(LLW), and loaded to its Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW). This table shows that out of the three 

vehicle types, the15-passenger vans are the most unstable. It also shows that the decrease in 

stability, between when a vehicle is lightly or fully loaded, is greatest for 15-passenger vans. 

Table 11. Static Stability Factors for Three Vehicles 

Center of Gravity 

Height (in.) Static Stability Factor Vehicle LLW 

(lbs) 

GVW 

(lbs) 

Track 

Width 

(in.) @ LLW @ GVW @ LLW @ GVW Percent 

Change 

Minivan 3,816 5,000 63.5 25.5 26.4 1.24 1.20 -3% 

7-passenger van 5,658 7,000 69.7 30.1 31.5 1.16 1.11 -4% 

15-passenger van 6,415 9,100 68.2 31.9 35.9 1.07 0.95 -11% 

Source: NHTSA, 2001 

Table 12 compares two statistics for various vehicle types: 

• The percentage of vehicles that roll over when they are involved in single-vehicle, fatal 

accidents. 

• The percentage of all passenger fatalities for a particular vehicle type that occurred in 

single-vehicle rollover accidents, as opposed to multi-vehicle accidents or non-rollover 

accidents. 

 34 
Table 12. Rollover Characteristics by Vehicle Type 

Vehicle Type 

Percentage of Vehicles that 

Roll Over when Involved in a 

Single-vehicle, Fatal 

Accident 

Percentage of Passenger 

Fatalities that Occurred in 

Single-vehicle Rollover 

Accidents 

Passenger cars 33% 45% 

15-passenger vans 50% 80% 

Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) 67% 80% 

Source: Property Casualty Insurers Association of America, 2005 

The table shows that 15-passenger vans are more likely than passenger cars to roll over when 

involved in a single-vehicle, fatal accident, but SUVs have an even greater likelihood of rolling 

over in such an accident. Passenger cars also perform better when comparing the percentage of 

passenger fatalities that occurred in a single-vehicle rollover accident. For passenger cars, this 

amounts to 45 percent, but 15 passenger vans and SUVs perform approximately equally with 

80 percent of fatalities involving rollovers. NHTSA reported that a total of 349 15-passenger 

vans rolled over in single-vehicle crashes between 1990 and 2002 (Property Casualty Insurers 

Association of America, 2005). 

Causes of 9-to-15-passenger van rollovers. Fifteen-passenger vans seem to be subject to 

more rollovers than other vehicle types due to their high and rearward center of gravity when 

fully loaded. This is especially true when passengers are located towards the rear of the vehicle, 

and/or luggage is placed on the roof. Vehicle manufacturers designed the 15-passenger van by 

merely extending the length of their cargo van and adding an additional row of seating beyond 

the rear axle. When this characteristic is combined with sources of vehicle instability such as 

low tire pressure, tire-blowouts, icy conditions, or other emergency conditions, it can lead to 

rollovers. In addition, “statistical analyses have shown that increased occupancy level and 

vehicle speed consistently predict the increased likelihood of 15-passenger van rollover” (NTSB, 

July 2003). Finally, a study by the NHTSA in May 2004 found that both speed and roadway 

geometry are statistically significant factors in predicting the likelihood of a 15-passenger van 

rollover. According to the report, a 15-passenger van is five times more likely to rollover on a 

high-speed road (greater than 50 mph) than a low-speed road (less than 50 mph). The odds of a 

15-passenger van rolling over on a curved road are twice as high as that on a straight road 

(NHTSA, May 2004). This underscores the importance of drivers maintaining a safe speed on 

curved roads. If they do not, the high and rearward center of gravity can cause the vehicle to 

overturn or run off the road. 

Measures to prevent rollovers. Several recommendations have been made to prevent 

rollovers. Most of these deal directly with the causes of rollovers mentioned above. While only 

the first bulleted item below could be regulated by FMCSA, the rest are the purview of other 

regulatory agencies or they could be implemented by van manufacturers: 

 35 
• Driver training. The NTSB calls for increased driver training in most of their reports on 

15-passenger van accidents. Driver training is cited often since 15-passenger vans handle 

differently than other passenger vehicles, especially in emergency situations. For 

example, in two different accidents, which were documented by the NTSB, drivers 

instinctively, but inappropriately, applied the brakes and over-steered in an attempt to 

regain control of their vans after a tire blowout. However, these actions led to further 

vehicle instability, resulting in the loss of control and subsequent rollover. 

• Extend wheel base for new vehicles. During interviews with van carrier companies, some 

indicated that they only use GM 15-passenger vans because they have always had an 

extended wheel base. When GM entered the 15-passenger van market around 1990, it 

extended the wheel base from the 12-passenger design (Safety Forum, 2005). The 

extended wheelbase deals directly with the rearward center of gravity, which was 

contributing to vehicle instability.

• Dual rear wheels for new vehicles. Several articles mentioned that dual rear wheels may 

help prevent 15-passenger van rollovers. In addition, dual rear wheels would provide 

extra load capacity, better traction, and improved handling. Public Citizen, a nonprofit 

organization that represents consumer interests, conducted a series of tests using vehicles 

that were modified to include dual rear wheels. A modified GM van did not demonstrate 

oversteer nor a propensity toward rollover in severe turning maneuvers. The Ford and 

Dodge vans similarly performed better after being modified to include dual rear wheels. 

However, the modified Dodge van still demonstrated two-wheel lift (Public Citizen with 

C. Tab Turner, 2002).

• Decrease loading. Several NTSB reports advise 15-passenger van users not to overload 

their vehicles with more than 15 passengers and instruct them not to use the roof rack. In 

addition, users have been advised that fully loading the vehicle will increase the rollover 

propensity in comparison to a partially loaded vehicle. When a vehicle is partially 

loaded, all passengers should move towards the front to prevent the center of gravity 

from moving towards the rear. 

• Install safety-promoting vehicle technologies. The NTSB has suggested that safetypromoting technological systems, such as traction control, lane departure systems, and 

particularly electronic stability control systems, may have the potential to help drivers 

maintain control of the 15-passenger van in an emergency situation. They note that 

electronic stability control manufacturers maintain that their systems will activate during 

a blowout situation, but the NTSB is not sure if sure if such a system would have 

prevented the accidents they were investigating. However, they feel that such a system 

would have given the driver greater opportunity to regain control of the vehicle. 

 36 
4.2 Interviews 

The previous sections highlight what recent literature indicates about the inherent safety 

problems associated with the 9-to-15-passenger vans. NTSB conclusions include the finding that 

9-to-15-passenger vans, when fully loaded, have a high center of gravity and, when coupled with 

poor maintenance of such items as tires and brakes, are susceptible to rollover. In a project for 

the FMCSA, the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) surveyed a portion of the camioneta 

industry in Texas. For their analysis, the TTI researchers interviewed drivers, inspected van 

condition, and recorded basic information such as vehicle mileage. The researchers conducted 

the survey at selected inland border checkpoints from Brownsville to Laredo and concluded that 

the van owners operated at lower safety standards than traditional motor coach operators. This 

conclusion was based on observed industry practices (Ellis & Hanley, 2002). 

4.2.1 Driver Responsibility for Safety 

Several industry-recognized crash investigation experts were interviewed to determine their 

views of the major factors contributing to 9-to-15-passenger van crashes. The consensus of the 

crash investigators interviewed was that the driver was the most important factor leading to 

crashes. The experts feel strongly that the drivers need to be trained in the characteristics of the 

vehicle. They also believe that this training needs to address the high-speed handling 

characteristics, not just test the ability to do low-speed maneuvers, such as backing the vehicle 

into a parking place. 

In addition, the driver needs to be fit for duty. It is common for the driver also to have another 

job with full-time responsibilities. Then, the driver is, in effect, doing two jobs and may be too 

tired to properly drive the van. The crash investigators judged that a driver’s alertness was 

critical because in addition to making crucial decisions while driving, the driver must determine 

whether or not weight of passengers plus cargo is within the gross vehicle weight limits for the 

vehicle. If this weight is exceeded, the safe operation of the vehicle could be jeopardized. 

One crash investigator interviewed has investigated many 9-to-15-passenger vans crashes. He 

judged that the ratio of driver issues to mechanical issues is seven or eight to one. The main 

driver issue he has identified is lack of training to properly estimate the stopping distance of the 

vehicle. This would be particularly true when the vehicle is fully loaded with people and 

equipment, such as ski equipment. Another crash investigator confirmed that loss of vehicle 

control due to driver error is virtually always the initiating event of the accident. 

The crash investigators assessment of the importance of the driver qualifications and capabilities 

for passenger van safety is supported by evidence from other sources. Many organizations such 

as colleges and universities that use the 9-to-15-passenger vans require all drivers to take a 

passenger van training course before they are permitted to operate a vehicle because the van 

handles very differently from a passenger car, especially under emergency conditions and 

particularly for inexperienced drivers. 

 37 
However, as the crash investigators also emphasized, even experienced drivers can run into 

difficulty when overly tired. In both Texas and Arizona, officials have observed drivers driving 

more hours consecutively than would be considered safe under the FMCSRs. In Arizona, 

carriers were making trips from Nogales to Flagstaff and back (a round trip of 634 miles and 

about 11 hours) in the same day. The State has incorporated the Federal safety regulations into 

State law and therefore has been able to crack down on drivers that stay on the road for too many 

consecutive hours. 

4.2.2 Vehicle Contribution in Serious Crashes 

The crash investigators stated that the design of the vehicle is another major contributing cause 

for serious crashes. One crash investigator indicated that the most important vehicle safety issue 

is that associated with lateral stability. Virtually all of the van accidents he deals with are rollovers. In addition, he identified passenger ejection as a major issue. Safety belts are either not 

used, unavailable, or it is too difficult for passengers to understand their function. For example, 

passengers might not understand how to use shoulder belts on side seats and therefore are less 

likely to use them. 

Some of the issues mentioned by crash investigators such as those related to the design of the 

vehicle that directly affect the stability of the vehicle, such as a high center of gravity, would be 

most effectively handled by the vehicle manufacturer. One design change that could be 

implemented for new vehicles by the manufacturer is the use of dual rear tires. The use of dual 

rear tires has been found to increase the stability of the vehicle. 

4.2.3 Compliance Issues 

Crash investigators acknowledged that regardless of the regulations envisioned to improve 

safety, enforcement, and oversight are big issues. These experts believe that enforcement of 

regulations applying to vans would be more difficult than enforcement of regulations for heavyduty trucks because vans have a lower enforcement priority among regulators. 

There is also the perception among van operators—particularly private carriers such as church 

groups, schools, and employers that transport workers—that they do not come under the 

FMCSRs. This belief makes it a challenge to ensure compliance. Van use also includes some 

categories that tend to be completely unregulated, such as employee van pools in metro areas 

such as Washington, DC. 

The investigators also believe that pre-trip inspections are not rigorously followed for many van 

carriers. Since compliance is very low even with many commercial truck carriers, they believe 

van pre-trip inspection requirements would be largely ignored. One crash investigator doubted 

that low tire pressure on a van would even be noticed in a pre-trip inspection, because it would 

require the use of a tire-pressure gauge and would not be noticed during a visual “walk-around” 

inspection. 

 38 
4.2.4 Maintenance Issues 

Crash investigators identified maintenance issues that may be considered as potential reasons for 

a crash. They believe that the type of tire used and the age and condition of the tire were the 

most important maintenance issues. Tire-related maintenance problems they identified included 

tires that were too old to be safe,4

 the use of tires with improper load rating, and the use of the 

incorrect tire for the vehicle. In some cases, a much cheaper pick-up truck tire might fit the 

wheel, but would not be adequate for the vehicle’s load. Another problem they identified is 

improper tire pressure. Tire pressure maintained at too low levels can result in rollovers or 

crashes due to vehicle instability or to failure of the under inflated tire. 

The maintenance experts contacted stated that manufacturers already have mechanical standards 

for these vehicles, and that some States, like Virginia, already have State-required vehicle 

inspections of safety-related equipment. Therefore, no new mechanical standards are needed. 

Other States may want to follow Virginia’s example in order to improve safety. 

4.3 Safety Data Analyses 

4.3.1 Approach 

Previous sections have shown that the safety of 9-to-15-passenger vans is dependent on proper 

driver action to stop the chain of causation. When the driver of a van encounters unexpected 

road and vehicle conditions, the driver has to make rapid adjustments or maneuvers, some of 

which are not instinctive. Since it does not automatically follow that 9-to-15-passenger vans are 

less safe than other vehicle configurations because of the previously described tendencies, a 

comparative analysis of the crash data is needed to confirm this finding. This section will 

examine the accident statistics for for-hire motor carriers that are currently covered by the 

FMCSRs and compare their performance with the accident statistics for motor carriers not 

covered by the FMCSRs. 

The analysis of the difference in safety between the carriers covered by the FMCSRs and those 

which are not covered is made more difficult because there is no simple way to identify a noncovered or a covered for-hire carrier in the MCMIS Crash File. The approach taken here is to 

assume that: 

• Any 9-to-15-passenger vans that do not have a USDOT number are not covered by the 

FMCSRs. 

• Any 9-15 passenger vans that have a USDOT number, but do not have registered drivers 

that operate vehicles more than 100 statute miles from their normal reporting work 

location, are not covered by the FMCSRs 

 

4

 Some vans used by churches and other non-profit groups are driven only occasionally and accumulate mileage at 

such a low rate that the tires may experience unacceptable age-related deterioration long before they wear out. 

 39 
• Any 9-15 passenger vans that have a USDOT number and registered drivers that operate 

vehicles more than 100 statute miles from their normal reporting work location are 

covered by the FMCSRs. 

Note that the distance from the normal work reporting location that a driver operates a vehicle is 

reported by the carrier and is found in the MCMIS Census file. 

For the vast majority of carriers, the absence of a DOT number will be a good indication of a 

motor carrier that does not have to meet the FMCSRs. Conversely, the vast majority of those 

carriers who have USDOT represent those carriers that must meet the FMCSRs. This approach 

is not perfect, because a covered carrier might have been mistakenly included with the noncovered carriers because the USDOT number was left blank when the accident report was filed. 

In spite of this potential exception, this is an effective method to differentiate the covered and 

uncovered carriers. 

In an effort to identify the potential uncertainty in this approach, it would be useful to determine 

what percentage of the reportable accidents that included a vehicle with a USDOT number 

omitted that number when the data were transferred from the Police Accident Reports (PARs) to 

MCMIS. As part of a previous Battelle study of HM accidents, PARs were obtained for all the 

listed HM accidents in the 2002 MCMIS Crash File. Over 1,200 records were reviewed to 

determine if the crash involved HM and, if it did, then any information missing from the crash 

record but listed in the PAR was added. Of 1,036 HM records, the DOT number was blank in 

the Crash File and not on the PAR for 148 records (about 15 percent of all the records). Thus the 

uncertainty in the identification of carriers that are covered by the FMCSRs and those that are 

not could be as large as 30 percent, 15 percent being removed from the uncovered category 

resulting in 15 percent being added to the covered category. 

The next step in examining the differences in safety between those motor carriers with DOT 

numbers and those without DOT numbers is to identify a safety measure that could be used to 

measure differences. Logical measures, such as the accident rate, cannot be used because the 

accident rate requires both the number of accidents in a period of time and the number of miles 

driven during the same time period. This is available for carriers with DOT numbers through the 

Census File, but since carriers without DOT numbers do not have a census record, there is no 

way to obtain the mileage for these motor carriers. It is not practical to assume that both groups 

have the same mileage because vans have different uses depending upon whether or not they are 

covered by the FMCSRs. For example, a van owned by a church organization, which would not 

be covered by the FMCSRs, would travel fewer total miles than a for-hire van operated by a tour 

company in interstate commerce. 

In looking at other possible ways to measure safety, it was decided to try measures such as fatalcrash-to-crash ratios and injury-crash-to-crash ratios. The use of such measures was suggested in 

an FMCSA report, FMCSA Safety Program Effectiveness Intervention Model (2004). The 

advantage of such measures is their robustness. The denominator is the number of crashes, 

something readily determined from the same file being used to identify the number of injury and 

 40 
fatal crashes. Even if the under-reported percentages for crashes, fatal and injury crashes are 

different, as long as the percentages are the same for both the carriers covered by the FMCSRs 

and those that are not covered, the percentage difference in the ratio between the covered and not 

covered carriers is a true difference in performance. For example, assume that the ratio of fatalcrash-to-crash ratio is 4 percent before a group of carriers were subjected to the regulations and it 

decreased to 3 percent after the regulations were effective, a 25 percent decrease in the ratio. 

Even if the crashes were under-reported by a factor of 4, the 4 percent ratio would decrease by a 

factor of 4 to 1 percent and if the underreporting factor remained the same, a good assumption if 

no reporting changes were made, then the 3 percent ratio would become 0.75 percent. However, 

the percent change remains the same, a 25 percent change in the ratio. If these differences are 

the result of regulatory differences, it is reasonable to assume that the change is due to the 

effectiveness of the regulations. Another benefit from use of these ratios is that in using an 

accident rate, any percentage change in each of the ratios can be translated directly into lives 

saved or injuries avoided, which can be used directly on the benefit side of the cost-benefit 

analyses. For these reasons, the fatal crash-to-total crash ratio and the injury crash-to-total crash 

ratio will be used to measure the differences in safety. 

The first section below addresses the databases that might provide insights into the safety of 

9-to-15-passenger vans. If these databases also provide information on the fatal-crash to crash 

and injury-crash to crash ratios for exempt and non-exempt carriers, this will be noted. This will 

be followed by a discussion of the structures of the databases used to identify these fatal and 

injury crash ratios. The third section summarizes any insights on 9-to-15-passenger vans that 

can be determined from the various databases and also summarizes the results of the comparison 

of the for-hire vans that are covered by the FMCSRs and those that are not covered. 

4.3.2 Databases 

The analysis of van safety began by obtaining Motor Carrier Management Information System 

(MCMIS) databases from FMCSA. There were tens of millions of records associated with the 

databases related files. The first step was to extract 9-to-15-passenger van information from 

these massive files into a Microsoft Access database. In addition to the MCMIS data, van 

accident and inspection data were also obtained from Texas and placed in an Access database. A 

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet containing the accident findings and inspections of small passenger 

van crashes in California was also received. Although limited, data on fatal van crashes were 

obtained from the BIFA database. The main use of the BIFA data was to estimate underreporting rates. The information obtained from each of these databases will be described in the 

following subsections. 

4.3.2.1 Motor Carrier Management Information System 

The FMCSA Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) database contains a 

Census File, a Crash File, an Inspection File, and a Violation File. 

The Census File contains hundreds of thousands of carrier profiles, mostly supplied by the motor 

carrier who desires to transport goods or provide services in interstate commerce. In addition to 

 41 
describing the type of service provided, the carrier provides information on the fleet and number 

of drivers used for interstate and intrastate commerce traveling greater and less than 100-statutemiles. Also provided is an estimate of the vehicle accident rate and the total annual miles 

traveled by the carrier. The carrier also defines the classification of the service to be provided: 

Authorized For-hire designated as “A”, Exempt For-hire – “B”, Private – “C”, Private Passenger 

–“D”, Private Non-Business –“E” and several other categories that are not of interest to this 

project. At the present time, for-hire vans that transport people across State lines and are 

therefore operating under interstate commerce need not comply with the FMCSRs if they do not 

travel outside a 75 air-mile radius from the driver’s normal work reporting location. This 

analysis considers the potential outcomes of removing this 75-air-mile criterion. 

When a carrier registers, all of the descriptive information about the carrier is self-reported, so it 

is of unknown quality. Moreover, until recently, unless the carrier underwent a compliance 

review, the information dated is from the original registration, so it could be out-of-date. In 

2000, FMCSA initiated a program that required carriers to update their information every 

2 years. While still self-reported, at least the data would more likely be up-to-date. Better data 

are available when a carrier undergoes a compliance review, because all the information is 

updated under the supervision of an FMCSA reviewer. Key data derived from a compliance 

review include information on total annual miles and number of accidents, which means that the 

accident rate information is updated and should be reasonably accurate. The reviewer also has a 

variety of means to cross-check other census data for accuracy. A field in the Carrier File 

provides the date of the most recent compliance review. 

The MCMIS database also contains a Crash File and its related Carrier and Events tables. Every 

reportable accident involving (1) a heavy truck having a gross weight greater than 10,000 pounds, 

(2) all 9-to-15-passenger vehicles not used for personal use, after April 1, 2001, and (3) all 

16 passenger vehicles should be recorded in the Crash File. A reportable accident is defined as 

one in which there is a fatality, an injury requiring immediate treatment away from the crash scene, 

or a tow-away of any motor vehicle disabled as a result of the crash and towed from the scene by a 

tow truck or other vehicle. Since there were no requirements to file accidents involving 

9-to-15-passenger van accidents before April 1, 2001, all the records used in this analysis are based 

on crashes that occurred in 2002 or later. While the crashes in 2001 after April 1, 2001 might have 

been analyzed, the assumption would have to be made that every State immediately started 

reporting 9-to-15-passenger van accidents beginning on April 1, 2001. Use of the 2001 data might 

have been attempted if there were an efficient way to determine when the van accidents began to 

be reported. Prior to the time a State started to report 9-to-15-passenger van accidents, vehicle 

configuration “3” was a bus carrying more than 15 passengers, and after that time vehicle 

configuration “3” was designated as a 9-to-15-passenger bus. There is no other field in the Crash 

File that would indicate when a State made the change. The prudent approach is to give the system 

nine months and assume that by calendar year 2002, all the States were reporting van accidents and 

identifying the vehicle configuration to be “3.” 

Lastly, the MCMIS data contains Inspection and Violation Files that contain the results from 

roadside inspections and compliance reviews for all registered carriers. In terms of numbers of 

 42 
records, these files are by far the largest. The Violation File was evaluated to see if there were 

significant differences between for-hire van motor carriers and private van motor carriers. This 

evaluation used the private carriers as a surrogate for the carriers that are not subject to the 

FMCSRs. Very few inspections were found and, based on the number of OOS violations 

observed, no significant differences between the two groups of carriers could be detected. Since 

the vehicle configuration being inspected is not specified in the Inspection File and many motor 

carriers operate fleets with mixed vehicle configurations, it is impossible to find OOS rates 

specifically for vans. Appendix D contains a comparison and analysis of inspection results for 

buses that is found in the Inspection and Violation File. 

The MCMIS Carrier File contains additional records on each carrier involved in a reportable 

accident. Thus, there is typically one carrier record for each crash record. The name of the 

carrier is not given in the crash record. Therefore, without this file, it would be impossible to 

determine the number of crashes a carrier without a DOT number has had over a period of time. 

Since the MCMIS files are very large, the first step in the data analysis process was to extract the 

data in the Census File records where the OWNVAN_9_15 field was greater than zero, 

indicating the number of 9-to-15-passenger vans in the carrier’s fleet. A total of 3,218 carriers 

met this criterion. The next step was to use the CLASS field to identify which of the carriers are 

“For-hire” and which are “Private.” The for-hire carriers were identified by searching the 

CLASS field for the entries A, AB, or B. The “A” carriers are “Authorized For-hire” and the 

“B” carriers are “Exempt For-hire.” The “B” carriers are exempt from economic regulation by 

the Federal Government; the “A” carriers are not. When this screen is used the number of 

carriers registered as either authorized or exempt “For-hire” was found to be 663. The other 

class of carriers that was investigated was the “Private” carriers. These were identified by 

searching the CLASS field for the entries C, D, E, CD, CE, DE or CDE. “C” class carriers are 

defined as “Private Property” carriers, “D” class carriers are defined as “Private Passenger 

Businesses,” and “E” carriers are defined as “Private Passenger Non-business.” When this query 

was run, a total of 1,613 private carriers were identified as “Private.” The difference between the 

sum of the For-hire and Private Carriers is 942. These carriers have CLASS letter designations 

that have different classes or are mixed, having a portion of business for-hire and a portion 

private. These mixed companies were not included in the analysis. 

Once the for-hire and private carriers were identified, it was possible to use the DOT number to 

analyze the crash history for three groups of carriers. These groups are: 

• Carriers with a DOT number that have drivers that travel more than 100 statute-miles 

from their normal work reporting location 

• Carriers with DOT numbers that have no drivers that travel more than 100 statute-miles 

from their home office 

• Carriers with no DOT number and are therefore assumed to be intrastate-only carriers 

 43 
The first group of carriers is subject to the FMCSRs. The latter two categories are not subject to 

the FMCSRs. For those carriers with DOT numbers, it is possible to identify the inspections 

performed for the for-hire and private carriers and, therefore, the history of violations. 

All reportable accidents involving 9-to-15-passenger vans, even those involving carriers not 

subject to the FMCSRs, must be reported to MCMIS. Additional information on van crashes 

can therefore be obtained by looking at all the van crashes even though they are not covered 

carriers. Thus, an additional query of the MCMIS files, in this case the Crash File, was 

performed to identify any crashes involving a 9-to-15-passenger van. Two fields in the Crash 

File can be used to identify 9-to-15-passenger vans: CARGO_BODY_TYPE_ID = 1 and 

VEHIC_CONFIGURATION_ID = 3. Because the 9-to-15-passenger van was not a 

configuration that was listed in the MCMIS Crash File before April 1, 2001, only those crashes 

occurring in 2002 or later were considered for analysis. Using an entry of either 

CARGO_BODY_TYPE_ID = 1 or VEHIC_CONFIGURATION_ID = 3 in these fields resulted 

in the identification of 2,998 crashes. These crashes included both carriers subject to the 

FMCSRs and those not covered by the regulations. There were 712 crashes associated with 395 

carriers with USDOT numbers assumed to be subject to FMCSRs. The process of determining 

how many carriers without DOT numbers had crashes is always difficult because, although it is 

possible to join the Crash File to a Carrier File associated with the crash, the carrier name is as 

entered on the police accident report and there is no standardization of names in the process of 

transferring the crash into the electronic Crash File. After much editing of carrier names and 

addresses, based on similar names with exact street, city and State matches, it was determined 

that the remaining 2,286 crash records involved 1,523 carriers. 

4.3.2.2 Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents 

The Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) is a file that has been compiled since 1999 by the 

Center for National Truck and Bus Statistics at UMTRI. Cases for the BIFA file are identified in 

NHTSA’s FARS file. Police reports for each crash are acquired from the States and trained 

interviewers contact the owner, driver, operator, reporting police officer, or any other source 

with knowledge of the vehicle. A detailed interview is completed to determine that the vehicle is 

a bus and to collect a detailed description of the vehicle, the operator of the vehicle, the type of 

trip, the number of hours driving prior to the crash, and some details about the crash. Among the 

data items collected that are particularly relevant to the current project are the following: 

• The number of seats for passengers 

• The type of bus, including small vans, cowl and chassis with a bus body, the different 

school bus types, transit buses, and over-the-road motor coaches 

• Whether the carrier operates interstate or intrastate 

• Carrier type, including for-hire, private, or government 

• A brief text description of the carrier. 

The BIFA file includes all buses with seating for 9-to-15-passengers, including the driver, not 

used for personal use (such as a family vehicle) and all buses with seating for more than 15 

passengers. Contacting owners, operators, and drivers of the buses allows the identification of 

 44 
buses in BIFA to be somewhat more accurate than in FARS. Each year, some vehicles identified 

as buses in FARS are found to be other vehicle types. In addition, some vehicles identified as 

trucks prove to be buses. 

The data elements in BIFA cover some, but not all, of the criteria for this project. Nine-tofifteen-passenger vans operated for-hire in interstate commerce can be identified, but the BIFA 

file includes no information about the carrier’s radius of operations. The type and distance of 

trip that the bus was on prior to the crash is identified, but not the region in which the carrier 

itself operates. However, as part of the methodology of the BIFA survey, police reports are 

acquired for each crash. Police reports typically include the carrier’s name and address. The 

carrier then may be searched for in FMCSA’s Safety and Fitness Electronic Records (SAFER) 

system or on the internet for any information that might further describe its operations. In 

addition, police report investigations may provide information about the carrier’s area of 

operations. Thus, BIFA data can be used to identify a set of crashes that meet some of the target 

population characteristics, and the police reports and other resources can be used to further refine 

the group. 

The BIFA file supplements the Fatality Analysis Reporting System file, but the FARS file itself 

is a resource, though less useful for the current project than the BIFA file. The BIFA file will be 

used to estimate under-reporting of fatal bus crashes. 

4.3.2.3 Texas Crash File 

The State of Texas Department of Transportation provided a database of 9-to-15-passenger van 

accidents and inspections that have been performed in the last three years – 2003 to 2005. The 

database consisted of 348 crash records and 229 inspections of these vehicles. While less 

extensive than the national data, it provided some insights on local van operations that were not 

obtainable from the national data. 

4.3.2.4 California Crash Data 

The State of California Highway Patrol requires the registration of vans and buses transporting 

farm laborers from cities and towns to farms. The inspection regulations are similar to the 

current DOT regulations for the transport of passengers in 9-to-15-passenger buses and vans 

traveling more than 75-miles in interstate commerce. These regulations were enacted in 2000, so 

California has 5 years of data that might show the effectiveness of such regulations on safety. 

The State provided data on 9-to-15-passenger van crashes from 1996 through 2005, thus 

providing 5 years of data before and after the enactment of the regulations. 

4.3.3 Description of Crash Data 

There are many techniques for pulling the crash data out of the MCMIS Crash File. One way is to 

go to the Census File, identify the DOT numbers for carriers that operate vans, and then analyze all 

the crashes these carriers have had. Another technique is to look at the crash records themselves 

and identify crashes which state that either the Vehicle Configuration was a 9-to-15-passenger van 

 45 
or that the cargo body type was a bus that carried 9 to 15 passengers. The Census File will only 

contain carriers that are registered for interstate commerce. The Crash File contains carriers that 

are involved in both interstate and intrastate commerce that have been involved in a reportable 

accident. The Census File is needed to distinguish for-hire and private carriers and the Crash File 

is needed to get a listing of the reportable accidents for both those carriers covered by the FMCSRs 

and those that are not covered by the regulations. Theoretically, the carriers whose vans are 

coming under the proposed regulations—interstate carriers who limit their range to less than 

100 miles—do not currently come under the FMCSRs. Carriers not covered by the FMCSRs may 

have DOT numbers indicating that they travel interstate but show that their drivers are operating 

less than 100 statute-miles from their reporting work location. Note that since 75 air-miles 

represents about 86 statute-miles, the 100-statute-mile limit used in the Census File is being used 

as a surrogate for the 75-air-mile distance. 

Starting with the Census File, the team identified carriers that have vans and identified number of 

van drivers in each of four driving classifications: interstate greater than 100 miles, interstate 

less than 100 miles, intrastate less than 100 miles, and intrastate greater than 100 miles. The 

Census File for these carriers also includes a stated inventory of vans, limousines, and school 

buses in the 9-to-15-passenger range that the carrier owns, leases, or leases by the trip. The 

carrier also registers under one or several 12 carrier classifications with 13 reserved as other in 

which the carrier can self declare its classification. In this case, the classifications of interest are 

A and B, which are the for-hire, and C, D, and E, which are three classes of private carriers. 

4.3.4 Comparison of Crash Data 

The crash data can be compared using a variety of performance measures. As described in the 

introduction to this subsection, two ratios, fatal crashes/total crashes and injury crashes/total 

crashes were used. In this analysis, these two measures were used to identify any changes to 

these two ratios that might result from the institution in 2003 of the requirement that interstate 

vans traveling more than 75-air-miles from their primary location must register. The following 

analyses looks at the difference in performance between those motor carriers covered by the 

FMCSRs and those not covered by the FMCSRs. 

Appendix E includes tables showing examples of carriers included in the analysis. One table 

shows selected interstate for-hire 9-to-15-passenger van carriers that were covered by the 

FMCSRs beginning in 2004. Another table shows 9-to-15-passenger van carriers that were not 

covered by the FMCSRs beginning in 2004. The final table in Appendix E shows a list of 

14 for-hire interstate 9-to-15-passenger van carriers that have DOT numbers but were not 

covered by the FMCSRs after December 2003. 

4.3.4.1 Carriers Subject to the FMCSRs and Those not Covered 

The analysis shown in this subsection compares 9-to-15-passenger van carriers that must comply 

with the FMCSRs and those that do not have to comply. As described previously, if the crash 

record lists a USDOT number, then it is assumed that the carrier must comply with the FMCSRs 

beginning in 2003, unless the Census File shows the carrier has no drivers who travel more than 

 46 
100 statute-miles from their reporting work location. A carrier was assumed not to be complying 

with the regulations if the Crash File does not include a DOT number in the crash record, or if 

the carrier has a DOT number but no drivers that travel more than 100 miles from the home 

office. This approach has flaws, because the DOT number that is entered into the PAR by the 

officer is not always transferred into the MCMIS crash file. However, it is a conservative 

approach because the absence of the DOT number would put that crash into the class of carriers 

that do not have to comply with the FMCSRs, which could make any observed differences in the 

fatality and injury ratios smaller. So if a difference is observed, it is likely to be less than the 

actual difference. Table 13 shows crash and fatal crash data for all vans, and the fatal-crash-tocrash ratio by year for the four-year period beginning in 2002. At the bottom of the table are the 

averages for the first 2 years and the average for the last 2 years and the percent change observed 

between the two time periods. The data did not use any crash records before 2002 because, prior 

to April 1, 2001, there was no requirement to report crashes involving 9-to-15-passenger vans. 

The break was made between 2003 and 2004 because the FMCSA inspection requirement was 

imposed on for-hire 9-to-15-passenger van companies that travel interstate and more than 75 airmiles from their normal work reporting location beginning in 2004. The table shows that 

considering all van crashes, the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio decreases by 18 percent. 

Table 13. All Van Crash Records—Fatal-Crash-to-Crash Ratio 

by Year and Totals 

Fatal Crash 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 

No 495 731 886 795 2,907

Yes 18 25 28 20 91

Total 513 756 914 815 2,998

Fatal Crash % 3.51% 3.31% 3.06% 2.45% 3.04%

Averages 

Years 2002 to 2003 2004 to 2005 

Percent 

Change 

Fatal Crash % 3.39% 2.78% -18.1% 

Source: MCMIS Crash File 

Table 14 separates out the van crashes involving 9-to-15-passenger vans that are subject to the 

FMCSRs beginning in 2004. When comparing the fatal-crash-to-crash ratios between the two 

time periods of interest, the later time period is 59 percent lower. Table 15 shows the same 

calculation for the 9-to-15-passenger van carriers that are not subject to the FMCSRs during both 

time periods. Instead of a decrease in the ratio, there is a 3.4 percent increase during the same 

time period. 

 47 
Table 14. Vans Currently Covered by FMCSRs – Fatal-Crash-to-Crash Ration 

by Year and Totals 

Fatal Crash 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 

No 126 161 194 191 672

Yes 7 8 5 3 23

Total 133 169 199 194 695

Fatal Crash % 5.26% 4.73% 2.51% 1.55% 3.31%

Averages 

Years 2002 to 2003 2004 to 2005 

Percent 

Change 

Fatal Crash % 4.97% 2.04% -59.0% 

Source: MCMIS Crash and Census Files 

Table 15. Vans Not Currently Covered by FMCSRs – Fatal-Crash-to-Crash Ratio 

Fatal Crash 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 

No 369 570 692 604 2,235

Yes 11 17 23 17 68

Total 380 587 715 621 2,303

Fatal Crash % 2.89% 2.90% 3.22% 2.74% 2.95%

Averages 

Years 2002 to 2003 2004 to 2005 

Percent 

Change 

Fatal Crash % 2.90% 2.99% 3.4% 

Source: MCMIS Crash and Census Files 

Table 14 shows a very significant result. During the entire four-year period, there was a 

requirement to enter any reportable 9-to-15-passenger van accidents in the MCMIS Crash File. 

Beginning in 2004, the FMCSRs were imposed on all the motor carriers used to tabulate the 

crashes and fatal crashes and the ratio decreased 59 percent. There are many possible 

explanations for this decrease. One is an overall decrease in the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio for all 

carriers. If this were true, then the same change also would be shown in Table 15. However, 

Table 15 shows a 3.4 percent increase rather than a decrease. Since no other change can be 

identified that would cause a 59 percent decrease other than the imposition of the new 

regulations, it is reasonable to attribute the change to the regulations. Because there is no reason 

for the ratio to increase over the four-year period, other than statistical variation, rather than use 

the difference in the percentage change between Table 14 and 15 of 63 percent as the 

effectiveness of the regulations, it is judged to be better to use the difference between Tables 13 

and 14, a 40 percent change. This change will be attributed to the imposition of the new 

FMCSRs on the 9-to-15-passenger van motor carriers. Note that due to the considerable lag time 

required to incorporate some of the serious accidents that occurred in 2005 into the MCMIS 

 48 
Crash File, all 2005 accidents may not have been entered into the database when this analysis 

was conducted. 

A calculation similar to the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio was performed using injury crashes. These 

results are shown in Tables 16 through 18. In this case, the differences are much smaller. For 

the two periods in Table 14 there is only an 18 percent decrease. As was the case with the fatalcrash-to-crash ratio, this change will be attributed to the effectiveness of the FMCSRs. The 

changes in Tables 16 and 18 are approximately the same so it will be concluded that the effect of 

the FMCSRs on the injury-crash-to-injury ratio is about 10 percent. This represents the 

difference in percent change between the results shown in Table 16 and 17. Although smaller 

than the 40 percent observed for the change in the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio, the smaller change is 

still considered significant because there are many more injury accidents than fatal accidents. 

Table 16. All Van Crash Records – Injury-Crash-to-Crash Ratio 

Injury Crash 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 

No 187 265 334 370 1,156

Yes 308 466 552 425 1,751

Total 495 731 886 795 2,907

Injury Crash % 62.22% 63.75% 62.30% 53.46% 60.23%

Averages 

Years 2002 to 2003 2004 to 2005 

Percent 

Change 

Injury Crash % 63.13% 58.12% -7.9% 

Source: MCMIS Crash File 

Table 17. Vans Currently Covered by FMCSRs Injury-Crash-to-Crash Ratio 

Injury Crash 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 

No 49 71 98 104 322

Yes 77 90 96 87 350

Total 126 161 194 191 672

Injury Crash% 61.11% 55.90% 49.48% 45.55% 52.08%

Averages 

Years 2002 to 2003 2004 to 2005 

Percent 

Change 

Injury Crash % 58.19% 47.53% -18.3% 

Source: MCMIS Crash and Census Files 

 49 
Table 18. Vans Not Currently Covered by FMCSRs 

Injury Crash 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 

No 138 194 236 266 834

Yes 231 376 456 338 1,401

Total 369 570 692 604 2,235

Injury Crash % 62.60% 65.96% 65.90% 55.96% 62.68%

Averages 

Years 2002 to 2003 2004 to 2005 

Percent 

Change 

Injury Crash % 64.64% 61.27% -5.2% 

Source: MCMIS Crash and Census Files 

In Section 3.0, an analysis using data from interview sources estimated that 1,590 carriers might 

not be subject to the FMCSRs because of the 75-air-mile interstate criterion. In Section 4.3.4.4, 

the change in the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio and the injury-crash-to-crash ratios attributable to the 

new regulations will be applied to the 1,590 carriers. The accident rate will assumed to be the 

same for all van companies. However, when the new carriers become subject to the FMCSRs, 

the lives saved and injuries prevented will be calculated by estimating the number of accidents 

these 1,590 carriers will experience each year. The number of accidents will be multiplied by 

first the old crash ratios and then the new crash ratios. The difference will be the fatalities and 

injuries prevented as a result of removing the 75-air-mile criterion from the FMCSRs for 

interstate carriers. 

4.3.4.2 Changes in Intrastate Crash Rates before and after the Introduction of an 

Intensive Enforcement Campaign for State Safety Regulations (California) 

The California Highway Patrol (CHP) provided two sets of data regarding drivers for farm labor 

contractors. These data are applicable for this analysis because, beginning in 2000, these 

vehicles were much more likely to be subject to inspection by the CHP using requirements very 

similar to those that must be met by interstate carriers. Two sets of data were provided, one 

related to accidents and the other related to inspections. The accident data were from 1996 and 

contained an annual summary of fatalities, injuries, and property damage for certified vehicles, 

non-certified vehicles, and farm labor transporters. The latter might be driving passenger cars, 

SUVs, or small trucks. The pre-crash condition at the time of the crash was recorded as was an 

assessment of which driver was at fault for the crash. Farm labor vehicles in California must be 

certified by the CHP once every 13 months. Once a general safety inspection of the passenger 

vehicle is performed by the CHP and no violations are found, a sticker is issued so that 

certification can be verified later if the vehicle is stopped. The safety inspection conducted by 

the CHP is equivalent to a LEVEL I North American Standard Inspection.

A comparison of the data, before and after the enforcement campaign for the regulations was in 

effect, yields useful results. The data divided the drivers of vehicles that have been certified and 

drivers of vehicles that are uncertified. The ratio of the fatal-crash-to-crash rate for the certified 

drivers is about 3 percent and for the drivers of the non-certified vehicles about 6 percent, similar 

 50 
to the 50 percent difference observed using the MCMIS Crash data. The injury-crash-to-crash 

rate is 67 percent for the uncertified vehicle and 39 percent for the certified vehicle, a 20 percent 

difference. The California data are inconsistent with the findings shown from the analysis of the 

MCMIS crash data. 

Regarding the compliance inspections that are also part of the California program, it is very 

difficult to notice any trends, as was the case with the analysis of the OOS data from MCMIS. 

Table 19, which contains data from the CHP, shows that the violation rate is actually increasing 

rather than decreasing between 2002 and 2003 for most violation categories, and then levels off 

between 2003 and 2004. When a new program is instituted there is a flurry of activity to get the 

new program up and running and during that time it would be expected that the compliance rate 

would not improve in the short term. This is what is observed. Apparently a longer time period 

is needed to show the effectiveness of compliance programs. 

Table 19. California Farm Labor Vehicle Violations 

2002 2003 2004 

Total Number of FLVs Placed OOS 159 309 293 

Total Number of Registration Violations 159 179 145 

Total Number of Unlicensed FLV Drivers 84 209 220 

Total Number of Other DL Violations 333 1,044 719 

Total Number of Safety Belt Violations 156 489 478 

Total Number of Lighting Violations 157 489 537 

Total Number of Tire and Wheel Violations 11 29 48 

Total Number of Other Equipment Violations 188 712 703 

Total Number of Load Violations 59 5 32 

Key: FLV—Farm Labor Vehicle 

OOS—Out of Service 

DL—Driver License 

4.3.4.3 Significance of the FMCSRs in Improving Safety 

The two performance measures found to effectively show the impact of new regulations indicate 

that these measures also can be used to show the effect of requiring all for-hire passenger vans 

traveling in interstate commerce to comply with the FMCSRs. By imposing this requirement, it 

appears that the result will be about a 40 percent decrease in the ratio of fatal crashes to crashes 

and about a 10 percent reduction in the ratio of injury crashes to all crashes. The next section 

will estimate the number of fatalities and injuries prevented annually by eliminating the criterion 

that interstate vans traveling less than 75 miles from their main office are exempt from the 

Federal Motor Carrier Safety Regulations. 

 51 
4.3.4.4 Number of Accidents Avoided or Mitigated because of Adoption of 

Federal Regulations 

If there are 1,590 carriers coming under the regulations, the crash data show that on average a 

carrier has about 0.56 crashes per year. While this number would be affected by the size of the 

carrier, the assumption being made is that the average number of vans operated by both the 

newly regulated and current carriers is about the same at three vans per carrier. A fatal-crash-tocrash ratio of about 0.03 results in an estimated 27 fatal crashes per year if there were no 

reduction in the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio. Assuming a 40 percent reduction in this ratio and 

using the calculated value of 1.24 fatalities per fatal crash, the number of fatalities prevented as a 

result of the new regulations is approximately 13. 

A similar calculation was performed using the injury-crash-to-crash ratio. In this case, the 

number of injury crashes per crash is 60 percent. If the current injury-crash-to-crash rate were 

maintained, then the new carriers coming under the regulations would experience 534 injury 

crashes per year. Assuming a 10 percent reduction in the ratio, and 2.2 injuries per crash 

(calculated from the crash records), then, a total of 118 injuries would be avoided as a result of 

applying the FMCSRs to the uncovered interstate carriers. 

There is quite a bit of uncertainty associated with these estimates of fatalities avoided and 

injuries prevented. The uncertainty in the number of carriers affected by removing the 75-mile 

criterion is estimated to be about 25 percent. The standard deviation of the accident rate for the 

four years is about 15 percent. There is also an uncertainty in the accuracy of the MCMIS data 

that is estimated to be about 30 percent. If these uncertainties are combined by taking the square 

root of the sum of the variances, the overall standard deviation becomes 42 percent. Note that it 

would be improper to simply sum the uncertainties because errors tend to cancel one another. If 

the standard deviation is 42 percent and the uncertainties are normally distributed, then it can be 

stated with 95 percent confidence that the number of fatalities prevented each year is at least two 

and the number of injuries requiring treatment away from the accident scene that are avoided is 

at least 19. It could also be stated with 95 percent confidence that the number of fatalities 

prevented per year is not greater than 24 and the number of injuries avoided is not greater than 

217. While these ranges are quite large, it reflects the inability to identify the exact number of 

carriers that will be affected by the new regulations. It also reflects the inability to identify the 

exact number of carriers that were affected when the current regulations became effective in 

December 2003. 

If the improved performance is applied to interstate carriers that are currently exempt from the 

FMCSRs because of the 75-air-mile criterion, then it is estimated that about 16 fatalities and 

115 injuries will be prevented annually. 

 52 
5.0 COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS 

This analysis estimates the potential costs to the public, and those imposed on industry 

associated with the elimination of the 75-air-mile criterion from the applicability of the 2003 

final rule. Additionally, special consideration will be given to the cost impacts on small 

businesses. Removing this criterion would impose the same type of compliance burdens as the 

2003 final rule, but would extend these burdens to a larger group of motor carriers, drivers, and 

vehicles. 

5.1 Baseline 

The first step in conducting a benefit-cost analysis is to establish a baseline that identifies the 

number of entities affected by the proposed rule and examines the baseline case of a no-action 

alternative. The number of 9-to-15-passenger van carriers that operate interstate within a 

75-air-mile radius has been estimated to be 1,590. A no-action alternative would result in no 

additional costs to this group but would not, by itself, improve the safety of these carriers. 

Since no single source of information identifies the size of businesses that operate 

9-to-15-passenger vans interstate within a 75-air-mile radius, it is difficult to assess how many 

or what percentage of these business are considered small businesses. The Small Business 

Administration (SBA) recognizes businesses as small businesses based on total revenue and 

number of employees thresholds set for different industries using the North American Industrial 

Classification System (NAICS). Using information from the van carriers surveyed and identified 

to be interstate, the population of interstate 9-to-15-passenger van carriers falls within several 

NAICS code classifications. Table 20 provides these classifications and identifies the SBA 

limits under which these businesses can be classified as small businesses. For all classifications 

identified, only businesses whose revenue is less than $6.5 million are considered small; the 

number of employees is not a part of the small business threshold for these industries. 

Of the approximately 80 carriers chosen from the Census File as representative of 

9-to-15-passenger van carriers (see Section 2.3.2), 24 of those operated only interstate and were 

exempt from the regulation within the 75-air-mile radius. To determine the percentages that are 

small businesses, revenue information was obtained for 22 of these businesses. Note that only 

for-hire carriers are required to report revenue information. 

Of these, four reported annual revenues higher than $6.5 million. The minimum revenue in this 

sample is $44,000 and the maximum revenue in this sample is $14.8 million. The average 

revenue of these companies is $3.5 million. 

 53 
Table 20. 9-to-15-Passenger Van Industry Classifications 

NAICS Code NAICS U.S. Industry Title Size Standard 

(in Millions) 

48532 Limousine Service $6.5 

48541 School and Employee Bus 

Transportation $6.5 

48551 Charter Bus Industry $6.5 

48599 Other Transit and Ground 

Passenger Transportation $6.5 

48711 Scenic and Sightseeing 

Transportation, Land $6.5 

48821 Support Activities for Rail 

Transportation $6.5 

56152 Tour Operators $6.5 

56159 Other Travel Arrangement 

and Reservation Services $6.5 

62191 Ambulance Services $6.5 

Source: North American Industry Classification System, 2002 

5.2 Costs 

These costs can be generally classified into three categories: driver medical examination and 

certification; driver qualifications; and vehicle inspection, repair, and maintenance. Table 21 

provides a summary of the specific requirements considered to have a cost impact. 

It should be noted that the 2003 Final Rule regarding the 9-to-15-passenger CMVs also 

examined the requirement for records of duty status. However, the hours-of-service 

requirements include an exemption for passenger operations within a 100-air-mile radius of their 

work reporting location as long as the drivers are released from work within a 12-hour period 

and have 8 consecutive hours off duty before returning to a 12-hour shift. Since the group 

examined necessarily includes only those interstate carriers traveling under a 75-air-mile radius 

and these carriers generally do not operate on a round-the-clock basis, this requirement was 

considered inapplicable for this evaluation. 

 54 
Table 21. Additional Requirements for 9-to-15-Passenger Van Operators < 75 Miles 

Requirement Area Regulatory Reference Summary of Requirement 

Driver Medical 

Examination and 

Certification 

§ 391.45 Driver Medical 

Certification 

Requires driver to be medically examined and 

certified in order to operate a commercial motor 

vehicle. 

Driver Qualifications 

§ 391.51 General 

requirements for driver 

qualification files 

Requires an initial set up and ongoing maintenance 

of a qualification file for each driver. 

Driver Qualifications § 391.23 Investigation 

and inquiries 

Requires an initial investigation to be performed and 

documented by the motor carrier which includes an 

inquiry into a driver’s driving record in States where 

the driver held a motor vehicle operators license 

during the previous 3 years. This documentation is 

to be placed into the driver qualification file. 

Driver Qualifications 

§ 391.23 Investigation 

and inquiries 

(Continued) 

Also requires an initial investigation to be performed 

by the motor carrier of the driver’s safety 

performance history if previously employed by DOT 

regulated employers in all States where the driver 

had employment during the previous 3 years. 

Driver Qualifications § 391.53 Driver 

Investigation History File 

Requires motor carriers to store and maintain 

documentation of the safety performance history of 

each driver. 

Driver Qualifications § 391.27 Record of 

violations 

Requires motor carriers once every 12 months to 

require drivers to supply a list of all traffic violations. 

Driver Qualifications 

§ 391.25 Annual inquiry 

and review of driving 

record 

Requires motor carriers to annually review the driver 

records for each driver it employs. 

Vehicle Inspection, 

Repair, and 

Maintenance 

§ 396.19 Inspector 

qualifications 

Requires motor carriers to retain evidence regarding 

an individual’s qualifications for performing periodic 

vehicle inspections. 

Vehicle Inspection, 

Repair, and 

Maintenance 

§ 396.25 Qualifications of 

brake inspectors 

Requires motor carriers to retain evidence regarding 

an individual’s qualifications for performing brake 

inspections. 

Vehicle Inspection, 

Repair, and 

Maintenance 

§ 396.3 Inspection, repair, 

and maintenance 

Requires motor carriers to retain records created 

and stored regarding systematic inspection, repair, 

and maintenance. 

Vehicle Inspection, 

Repair, and 

Maintenance 

§ 396.21 Periodic 

inspection recordkeeping 

requirements 

Records created and stored regarding annual 

periodic inspections. 

Vehicle Inspection, 

Repair, and 

Maintenance 

§ 396.11 Driver vehicle 

inspection report(s) 

Requires drivers to prepare vehicle inspection 

reports at the end of each day for each CMV 

operated. 

Source: 49 CFR Parts 380-399, FMCSA, DOT 

 55 
5.2.1 Driver Medical Examination and Certification 

With removal of the 75-air-mile criterion, all interstate motor carriers operating 

9-to-15-passenger vans would have to require their drivers to be medically examined and 

certified every 24 months. The costs imposed by this requirement are the price paid for the 

medical examination and the work time taken by the driver to be examined. Both costs are 

considered to have been absorbed by the motor carrier unless the exam took place prior to 

employment. The total number of 9-to-15-passenger van drivers has been previously estimated 

at 4,616 in 2006. From interviews with passenger carrier companies, it was estimated that 

drivers spend approximately 1.5 working hours including travel to receive a medical exam. The 

$300 cost of a medical exam used in the 2004 regulation evaluation was not justified and had no 

source. Consequently, the average cost of a DOT driver medical examination and certification 

was determined through responses of motor carriers interviewed for this analysis and by a brief 

survey of the price of a DOT medical physical from 21 companies in 18 States. These medical 

examination companies were identified through the Drug and Alcohol Testing Industry 

Association’s (DATIA) member directory. The highest and lowest price for a medical exam and 

certification were $86 and $35 respectively. Using these sources, the cost of a medical 

examination and certification of drivers was estimated to average $53 per exam. This medical 

examination cost does not include the price of drug and alcohol testing since this is not a 

requirement of the proposed regulation. 

The wage rates for 9-to-15-passenger van operators likely vary depending on location. 

Additionally, no data could be found regarding the exact labor costs for this specific group of 

drivers. Therefore, the 2004 average wage plus fringe benefits for taxi drivers and chauffeurs 

inflated 2 years based on consumer price index growth yielded $16.01, which was used in this 

analysis (U.S. Department of Labor, 2005). 

The costs of the examination would be incurred initially for the estimated 4,616 drivers, but also 

would occur due to industry growth and driver turnover. An industry growth rate for this 

industry of 1.7 percent was estimated by averaging growth in gross output for transit and ground 

passenger transportation over 1999 to 2004 (BEA, 2005). When asked about driver turnover 

rates, most companies responded with estimates ranging from 16 percent to 38 percent. An 

average turnover rate of 25 percent for 9-to-15-passenger van drivers is assumed for this 

analysis. 

Table 22 estimates total medical examination and certification costs to motor carriers at 

$697,806 as expressed in real 2006 dollars, over the 10-year analysis time horizon. A discount 

rate of 7 percent was used to construct the net present value estimate (OMB, 2002). 

 56 
Table 22. Driver Medical Examination and Certification Costs 

Year 

Initial Number of 

Drivers Requiring 

Certification 

Initial Exam 

Cost 

Initial 

Cost of 

Driver Time 

Number of 

Drivers 

Required to 

Re-certify 

Re-certify 

Exam Cost 

Re-certify 

Cost of 

Driver Time 

Total Costs 

2006 4,616 $245,204 $110,858 0 $0 $0 $356,062

2007 1,231 $61,139 $27,641 0 $0 $0 $88,780

2008 1,252 $58,099 $26,267 3,462 $160,628 $72,621 $317,614

2009 1,273 $55,210 $24,961 3,520 $152,641 $69,010 $301,821

2010 1,295 $52,465 $23,720 3,579 $145,050 $65,578 $286,813

2011 1,316 $49,856 $22,540 3,639 $137,838 $62,317 $272,551

2012 1,338 $47,377 $21,419 3,700 $130,984 $59,218 $258,998

2013 1,361 $45,021 $20,354 3,762 $124,470 $56,274 $246,119

2014 1,384 $42,782 $19,342 3,825 $118,281 $53,476 $233,881

2015 1,407 $40,655 $18,380 3,890 $112,400 $50,816 $222,251

TOTAL 16,473 $697,806 $315,482 29,377 $1,082,291 $489,310 $2,584,890

Source: Questionnaires to motor carriers 

5.2.2 Driver Qualifications 

In addition to the medical fitness certification, motor carriers are required to ensure that their 

drivers meet all of the minimum qualifications for interstate CMV travel, which includes 

documentation of those qualifications. Upon initial hire of a driver, 9-to-15-passenger van 

carriers will be required to create a driver qualification file (DQF) that contains the following 

information: 

• The driver’s application for employment. 

• A copy of the response by each State agency concerning a driver’s driving record. 

• The certificate of driver’s road test issued to the driver or a copy of the license or 

certificate which the motor carrier accepted as equivalent to the driver’s road test 

pursuant. 

• The response of each State agency to the annual driver record inquiry. 

• A note relating to the annual review of the driver’s driving record as required. A list or 

certificate relating to violations of motor vehicle laws and ordinances. 

• The medical examiner’s certificate of his/her physical qualification to drive a commercial 

motor vehicle. 

The motor carrier also must perform certain tasks to ensure the qualifications of the driver, which 

is the basis for some of the documentation that is required for the DQF. These tasks include, as 

referred to in Table 21, requesting State driving records and conducting a driving test. Motor 

 57 
carriers also are required to investigate and document prior driver safety performance; however, 

this documentation is often included into the DQF instead of being put in a separate driver safety 

investigation history file. Additionally, the DQF must be updated and maintained annually by 

obtaining a list of driving violations from each driver and submitting an annual inquiry into the 

State driving record for each employed driver. 

5.2.3 Initial DQF Setup Costs 

The 2003 Final Rule estimated the documentation time required by a supervisor at a motor 

carrier to take approximately 21 minutes. In addition to the time for documentation, 

9-to-15-passenger van carriers will be required to conduct a driving test and make an inquiry into 

the driving record of a potential driver. Further, the 2003 rule does not take into consideration a 

rule published in 2004 (§ 391.23) that required motor carriers to inquire into the safety 

performance history records of a potential driver. This rule requires the motor carrier to conduct 

an investigation into the safety performance history of a new or prospective driver, which 

involves phone interviews or written requests of information from previous employers. There is 

also a process whereby a driver is allowed to review and dispute the results of the investigation. 

It is also required that the information collected be retained in a driver safety performance file; 

however, regulations allow this documentation to be included into the DFQ and interviews with 

carriers revealed that these files are kept together. 

Overall, the completion time for a DQF may take up to a couple of weeks due to the different 

timelines for each component of the file. However, the actual work time spent by a motor carrier 

supervisor to complete the requirements and obtain the documentation was reported by carriers 

to average at 1.5 hours. This estimate would include an average of 40 minutes to perform an 

investigation in the driver’s safety performance, 10 minutes to inquire into the driver’s State 

driving record(s), 25 minutes to perform a driving test and 15 minutes to compile any additional 

paperwork for the file. The average wage plus fringe benefits of a supervisor compiling a DQF 

was determined using the wage of $21 from the “First-Line Supervisors/Managers of 

Transportation and Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators” from the Transit and 

Ground Transportation industry (U.S. Department of Labor, 2004). Since this is only an hourly 

wage estimate and does not include fringe benefits, this wage was multiplied by a factor of 

1.412, which represents the employer costs of benefits as a percentage of the wage (BLS, 2005). 

Therefore, the wage of a supervisor is estimated to be $31.16 using the 2006 CPI as an inflation 

factor (BLS). Assuming 4,616 drivers, the costs of supervisor time for setting up DQFs is 

$215,763 in 2006. 

To calculate the costs of the driving test in terms of driver time, 4,616 total drivers were 

multiplied by a test time of 25 minutes and the driver wages plus fringe benefits of 

approximately $16. Therefore, the total costs for driving tests in terms of driver time for 2006 

are $30,794. 

Some providers of transportation compliance products sell DQF folder packages that include a 

file folder, a check-off list, and forms. The material costs per DQF were estimated to be $7.79 

 58 
by using the average price per file for a pack of 10 files (J.J. Keller; Trans Products; Foley 

Services). Assuming 4,616 drivers in 2006, the materials’ costs for DQF would be $35,940. 

In general, a fee is charged for each State driving record requested but this cost item was not 

included in the 2003 Final Rule. The amount of the fee ranges from $1.25 to $18 depending on 

the State for the record is requested or whether a third-party bulk record provider is used 

(Softech International). For the purposes of this analysis, State fees were averaged to $6.63 per 

record. Assuming 4,616 drivers, the driving record fee costs would be $30,591 for 2006. 

A driver-supplied list of violations that occurred within the previous 12 months must be included 

into the DQF. Although there is no single form required for collecting driver-listed violations, 

Figure 7 shows a form that contains the required information used to comply with this 

requirement. Carriers stated that it takes no more than 5 minutes for a driver to complete a list of 

violations. The total 2006 costs for each driver to provide a list of violations would therefore be 

$6,159, assuming 4,616 drivers and an hourly wage plus fringe benefits of $16. 

I certify that the following is a true and complete list of traffic violations (other than parking 

violations) for which I have been convicted or forfeited bond or collateral during the past 12 months.

Date of conviction Offense 

 

 

 

 

Location Type of motor vehicle operated 

 

 

 

 

If no violations are listed above, I certify that I have not been convicted or forfeited bond or 

collateral on account of any violation required to be listed during the past 12 months.

 

(Date of certification) (Drivers signature) 

 

(Motor carrier’s name) 

 

(Motor carrier’s address) 

 

(Reviewed by: Signature) (Title) 

Figure 7. Example Driver Violations Form (FMCSA) 

 59 
To expand the initial DQF setup costs over the 10-year time frame, the number of drivers is 

assumed to grow by the previously calculated industry growth rate of 1.7 percent and a driver 

turnover rate of 25 percent. A discount rate of 7 percent was used to construct the net present 

value estimate (OMB, 2005). Table 23 shows the initial DQF costs. 

Table 23. Initial Driver Qualification Costs 

Year 

Total 

Number of 

New Drivers 

Supervisor 

DQF Setup 

Time Costs 

DQF Material 

Costs MVR Pull Fees 

Driving Test 

Costs for 

Driver 

Driver-Supplied 

Violations 

Costs 

Total Initial 

Costs 

2006 4,616 $215,763 $35,940 $30,591 $30,794 $6,159 $319,246 

2007 1,231 $53,798 $8,961 $7,628 $7,678 $1,536 $79,601 

2008 1,252 $51,123 $8,516 $7,248 $7,296 $1,459 $75,643 

2009 1,273 $48,581 $8,092 $6,888 $6,934 $1,387 $71,881 

2010 1,295 $46,165 $7,690 $6,545 $6,589 $1,318 $68,307 

2011 1,316 $43,870 $7,307 $6,220 $6,261 $1,252 $64,910 

2012 1,338 $41,688 $6,944 $5,911 $5,950 $1,190 $61,683 

2013 1,361 $39,615 $6,599 $5,617 $5,654 $1,131 $58,615 

2014 1,384 $37,645 $6,271 $5,337 $5,373 $1,075 $55,701 

2015 1,407 $35,773 $5,959 $5,072 $5,106 $1,021 $52,931 

TOTAL 16,473 $614,022 $102,279 $87,056 $87,634 $17,527 $908,518 

NOTE: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. 

5.2.4 Ongoing DQF Maintenance Costs 

Motor carriers are required to update the DQF annually with a new driver-supplied list of 

violations, documentation of the driving record from the previous 12 months. This means that 

yearly cost includes driver time to furnish a violations list, supervisor time to submit a drivingrecord inquiry, and fees associated with each driving-record inquiry. The 2003 Final Rule 

estimated that the time needed to conduct a driving record investigation was 5 minutes. 

However, as stated in the previous section, carriers interviewed for this study estimated that it 

took approximately 10 minutes to do this. Further, in most cases, motor carriers will be charged 

a fee for the annual driving record pull; this was estimated to be $6.63 per file. Driver time to 

complete this list was estimated to be 5 minutes, as stated in the previous section. Table 24 

shows the costs for ongoing driver qualification activities. It should be noted that the costs borne 

in the first year for this analysis will be borne as part of the initial compliance costs. 

 60 
Table 24. Ongoing Driver Qualification Costs 

Year Annual Driving 

Record Inquiry

MVR Pull 

Fees

Driver-Supplied 

Violations Costs

Total Ongoing 

Costs 

2006 $0 $0 $0 $0 

2007 $16,804 $21,442 $4,317 $42,563 

2008 $15,968 $20,376 $4,102 $40,447 

2009 $15,174 $19,363 $3,898 $38,435 

2010 $14,420 $18,400 $3,704 $36,524 

2011 $13,703 $17,485 $3,520 $34,708 

2012 $13,021 $16,615 $3,345 $32,982 

2013 $12,374 $15,789 $3,179 $31,342 

2014 $11,759 $15,004 $3,021 $29,783 

2015 $11,174 $14,258 $2,871 $28,302 

TOTAL $124,397 $158,733 $31,957 $315,087 

5.2.5 Total Costs for Driver Qualifications Requirements 

Table 25 shows the total initial driving DQF setup costs and the ongoing DQF maintenance costs 

expressed in real 2006 dollars. Over the 10-year analysis time frame, the cost of driver 

qualification requirements is $1.2 million. 

Table 25. Driver Qualification Costs 

Year Total Initial DQF 

Costs 

Total Ongoing 

DQF Costs 

Total DQF 

Costs 

2006 $319,246 $0 $319,246 

2007 $79,601 $42,563 $122,164 

2008 $75,643 $40,447 $116,089 

2009 $71,881 $38,435 $110,317 

2010 $68,307 $36,524 $104,831 

2011 $64,910 $34,708 $99,618 

2012 $61,683 $32,982 $94,665 

2013 $58,615 $31,342 $89,957 

2014 $55,701 $29,783 $85,484 

2015 $52,931 $28,302 $81,234 

TOTAL $908,518 $315,087 $1,223,605 

 61 
5.2.6 Vehicle Inspection, Repair and Maintenance 

In order to ensure that Federal vehicle inspection, repair, and maintenance requirements are 

followed, interstate carrier operations are required to retain documentation regarding systematic 

and periodic vehicle inspection, repair, maintenance, qualifications for vehicle and brake 

inspectors, and driver vehicle inspection reports. 

CFR 396.21 requires records to be retained regarding periodic (i.e., annual) inspections, and CFR 

396.3 requires records to be retained regarding systematic (i.e., ongoing) maintenance, repair and 

inspection activities. Carriers indicated that the actual documentation portion of the inspections 

was minimal, taking an inspector an average of 5 minutes to complete for both systematic and 

periodic inspections. Therefore, the annual time spent for periodic inspection documentation is 

5 minutes. However, there is no specification from the CFRs as to how often systematic 

inspections are to occur; only that documentation be retained on those that do occur. The 

number of systematic inspections can be calculated by dividing the annual average number of 

miles per 9-to-15-passenger van by the service interval. Of the passenger van carriers 

interviewed, the minimum and maximum yearly average miles traveled per van were 30,000 and 

350,000, respectively. The average number of miles per van was 93,300. If a 3,000-mile service 

interval rate is assumed, then the number of systematic maintenance, repair, and inspections per 

year is 31.5

 This would amount to 2.67 hours or 2 hours and 40 minutes in time spent by a 

mechanic for documentation. The wage rate for vehicle mechanics/inspectors has been 

calculated at $22.14, resulting in approximately $61 per vehicle per year in vehicle inspections 

documentation costs. In accordance with the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (OMB 2126-

0003) “FMCSA is requiring that motor carriers operating CMVs designed or used to transport 

9-to-15-passengers be required to meet the recordkeeping requirements of 49 CFR parts 391, 

395, and 396.” 

An additional documentation requirement is that a motor carrier must retain evidence of the 

qualifications of mechanics to inspect vehicles and brakes. This evidence is required to be 

retained by the motor carrier unless the motor carrier outsources the maintenance, repairs, and 

inspections of its vehicles. In the case that a motor carrier does outsource these functions to an 

independent shop, the shop can retain this documentation and make it available on request of the 

motor carrier. Given that the average number of 9-to-15-passenger vans for the population of 

operations considered in this analysis is 2.4 vans, it is very likely that most of the carriers in 

question do not have an internal mechanical shop. Further, it is reasonable to believe that the 

majority of mechanical shops that service these vans also work on other vehicles where the 

qualifications documents are already required. For these reasons, we believe that no more than 

10 percent, or 159 carriers out of the population of 1,590 passenger van carrier operators, would 

be affected by this rule. While there is no specific form necessary for documenting evidence of 

qualifications, Figure 8 presents an example of the content that must be present. 

 

5

 The Chevrolet Express Passenger and the Ford Super Club E-350 both suggest a minimum service interval of 

3,000 miles. 

 62 
Figure 8. Inspector Qualifications Documentation (Iowa DOT) 

Carriers contacted who already comply with the FMCSRs stated that documenting brake 

inspector qualifications and vehicle inspector qualifications would not take more than 5 minutes 

for each document. Therefore, assuming a supervisor paid $31.16 hourly and 169 companies 

spent 10 minutes obtaining these two documents, the costs for 2006 would be a total of $826. 

Finally, the last documentation requirement considered in this analysis is that motor carriers have 

their drivers complete a driver inspection report at the end of each work day. The cost of this 

requirement would be a function of the time needed to complete documentation, the wage of the 

driver, and the annual number of times a driver completes this documentation. Motor carriers 

who already operated under the FMCSRs estimated that, on average, this would take 

approximately 3 minutes to complete. The average wage rate of a driver has been estimated to 

 63 
be approximately $16 (see Section 5.2.1). To estimate the number of times a driver conducts a 

driver inspection, it is assumed, based on responses from passenger van carriers that 90 percent 

of the estimated 3,508 fleet of vans operate daily. Further, it is assumed that this fleet operates 

365 days a year and there is one driver per vehicle each day. Based on these assumptions, it is 

estimated that the costs of driver inspections for these carriers would be $922,598 in 2006. 

Table 26 presents the inspection, repair, and maintenance costs expressed in real 2006 dollars. 

Over the 10-year analysis time frame, the cost of inspection, repair, and maintenance is 

$9 million. 

Table 26. Vehicle Inspection, Repair, and Maintenance Qualification Costs 

Year 

Total 

Number of 

Carriers 

Total 

Number of 

Vehicles 

Systematic and 

Periodic 

Inspections 

Records Costs 

Documented 

Evidence for 

Vehicle and Brake 

Inspectors Costs 

Driver 

Inspections 

Costs 

Total Costs 

2006 1,590 3,508 $207,456 $826 $922,598 $1,130,880

2007 1,617 3,567 $197,140 $13 $876,722 $1,073,875

2008 1,644 3,627 $187,337 $12 $833,126 $1,020,476

2009 1,671 3,688 $178,022 $12 $791,699 $969,732

2010 1,700 3,750 $169,169 $11 $752,331 $921,512

2011 1,728 3,813 $160,757 $11 $714,921 $875,689

2012 1,757 3,877 $152,764 $10 $679,371 $832,145

2013 1,787 3,942 $145,167 $10 $645,589 $790,766

2014 1,817 4,008 $137,949 $9 $613,487 $751,445

2015 1,847 4,075 $131,089 $9 $582,981 $714,079

TOTAL 17,157 37,853 $1,666,851 $922 $7,412,826 $9,080,599

5.3 Benefits Assessment 

The primary expected benefits from implementation of the proposed regulation are a reduction in 

crashes leading to fewer injuries and fatalities. The costs of fatalities and injuries due to motor 

vehicle crashes have previously been estimated by the National Safety Council (NSC) in 2004 to 

be $3,760,000 per fatality and $188,000 per incapacitating injury (NSC, 2004). These costs 

include wage and productivity losses, medical expenses, and administrative expenses. In 

addition to the economic cost components listed above, these costs also include the value of lost 

quality of life which is appropriate since this analysis estimates the future benefits of a proposed 

safety improvement. For the purposes of this analysis, these costs were adjusted for inflation and 

are $3,947,100 for fatalities and $197,355 for injuries for 2006. NSC periodically studies and 

updates the economic and comprehensive costs associated with fatalities, injuries, and non-injury 

vehicle crashes. With each new study, the costs increase. For example, the 1999 study estimated 

the comprehensive cost of a fatality at $3.1 million while the 2004 study estimated the cost at 

$3.76 million. Thus, each study represents a snapshot in time based on the data collected for that 

 64 
study and current price levels. As with all benefit-cost analyses, each cost element used in this 

study must be inflated or deflated in order to normalize the costs, bringing them into base-year 

dollars. For this analysis, 2006 was used as the base-year. If the 2004 study had never been 

completed, the 1999 study could have been used by inflating the dollars into 2006 dollars. This 

procedure has been applied to the other cost elements used in this project. This basic tenant of 

benefit-cost analysis ensures a level basis of analysis. It removes the impact of price escalation 

or inflation from the analysis. The results of the NSC study must be brought into base-year 

dollars to prevent an “apples-to-oranges” comparison of cost items. 

As discussed earlier, the research team found that adopting the safety regulations contained in 

49 CFR parts 390, 391, 392, 393, 395, 396, as well as the safety fitness procedures in part 385, 

results in an average reduction in fatal crashes by 40 percent and injury crashes by 10 percent. 

5.3.1 Fatalities Avoided Benefits 

The estimation of the potential monetary benefits of a 40 percent reduction in fatality crashes is 

as follows. If there are 1,590 passenger van carriers traveling less than 75-air-miles in 2006, the 

yearly crash rate for carriers is 0.56 (see Section 4.3.3.4) and the fatality-to-crash ratio is 

3 percent (see Section 4.3.3.2), there would be an estimated 27 crashes attributed to these carriers 

(1,590 x 0.56 x 3%). If 40 percent of those 28 crashes could be prevented, this would reduce the 

number of crashes by 11 and the number of fatalities to 13 assuming a 1.24 fatality per crash 

ratio. Therefore, the avoided costs for 2006 resulting in fewer fatalities is 13 multiplied by 

$3,947,100, or $52 million. Holding the crash reduction rate constant at 40 percent and 

assuming an annual industry growth of 1.7 percent, the potential monetary benefits from reduced 

fatalities resulting from the proposed elimination of the 75-air-mile criterion would be 

$420 million over a 10-year time frame. These findings are shown in Table 27. 

5.3.2 Injuries Avoided Benefits 

Table 28 depicts the potential reduction in injuries resulting from a 10 percent reduction in 

crashes. An estimated 534 crashes are attributable to the estimated 1,590 passenger van carriers 

considered in this analysis since the average crash rate is 0.56 and the injury to crash ratio is 

60 percent (see Section 4.3.3.4). If 10 percent of 534 crashes were to be avoided and the average 

number of injuries per crash is two, then approximately 117 fewer injuries would result in 2006. 

Holding the crash reduction rate constant at 10 percent and assuming an annual industry growth 

of 1.7 percent, the potential monetary benefits from reduced injuries resulting from the proposed 

elimination of the 75-air-mile criterion would be $186 million over a 10-year time frame. 

 65 
Table 27. Estimated Avoided Fatalities – Benefits 

Year 

Total 

Number of 

Carriers 

Fatal 

Crashes6 Fatalities Avoided7

Avoided 

Fatalities: 

Benefits 

Discounted 

Benefits 

2006 1,590 27 13.2 $52,295,728 $52,295,728 

2007 1,617 27 13.5 $53,173,968 $49,695,297 

2008 1,644 28 13.7 $54,066,957 $47,224,175 

2009 1,671 28 13.9 $54,974,943 $44,875,930 

2010 1,700 29 14.2 $55,898,178 $42,644,452 

2011 1,728 29 14.4 $56,836,917 $40,523,936 

2012 1,757 30 14.6 $57,791,421 $38,508,864 

2013 1,787 30 14.9 $58,761,954 $36,593,992 

2014 1,817 31 15.1 $59,748,787 $34,774,338 

2015 1,847 31 15.4 $60,752,192 $33,045,167 

TOTAL 17,157 288 143 $564,301,044 $420,181,878 

Table 28. Estimated Avoided Injuries – Benefits 

Year 

Total 

Number of 

Carriers 

Injury 

Crashes8 Injuries Avoided9

Avoided 

Injuries: 

Benefits 

Discounted 

Benefits 

2006 1,590 534 117.5 $23,195,686 $23,195,686 

2007 1,617 543 119.5 $23,585,228 $22,042,269 

2008 1,644 552 121.5 $23,981,312 $20,946,206 

2009 1,671 562 123.6 $24,384,047 $19,904,646 

2010 1,700 571 125.6 $24,793,547 $18,914,878 

2011 1,728 581 127.7 $25,209,923 $17,974,326 

2012 1,757 590 129.9 $25,633,291 $17,080,544 

2013 1,787 600 132.1 $26,063,770 $16,231,206 

2014 1,817 610 134.3 $26,501,478 $15,424,101 

2015 1,847 621 136.5 $26,946,537 $14,657,130 

TOTAL 17,157 5,765 1,268 $250,294,818 $186,370,994 

 

6

 Fatal crashes anticipated under the current regulatory environment 

7

 Fatalities avoided if for-hire interstate carriers operating 9-15 passenger vans within 75 air-miles of the driver’s 

reporting location come under the FMCSRs 

8

 Injury crashes anticipated under the current regulatory environment 9

 Injuries avoided if for-hire interstate carriers operating 9-15 passenger vans within 75 air-miles of the driver’s 

reporting location come under the FMCSRs 

 66 
5.4 Benefit-Cost Findings 

The findings of this analysis are presented in Table 29. The benefits of reduced fatalities and 

injuries resulting from a reduction in passenger van crashes is estimated to be approximately 

$594 million over the 10-year analysis period. Therefore, the estimated benefits of the proposed 

rule outweigh the estimated costs of complying with additional safety and documentation 

requirements by 47 to 1. 

Table 29. Benefit-Cost Summary (in thousands) 

Year 

Medical 

Certification 

Costs 

Repair and 

Maintenance 

Costs 

DQF 

Costs 

Total 

Costs 

Total 

Discounted 

Costs 

Avoided 

Fatalities: 

Benefits 

Avoided 

Injuries: 

Benefits 

Total 

Benefits 

(Avoided 

Costs) 

Total 

Discounted 

Benefits 

Net 

Benefits 

2006 $356 $1,131 $319 $1,806 $1,806 $52,296 $23,196 $75,491 $75,491 $73,685

2007 $95 $1,149 $131 $1,375 $1,285 $53,174 $23,585 $76,759 $71,738 $70,453

2008 $364 $1,168 $133 $1,665 $1,454 $54,067 $23,981 $78,048 $68,170 $66,716

2009 $370 $1,188 $135 $1,693 $1,382 $54,975 $24,384 $79,359 $64,781 $63,399

2010 $376 $1,208 $137 $1,721 $1,313 $55,898 $24,794 $80,692 $61,559 $60,246

2011 $382 $1,228 $140 $1,750 $1,248 $56,837 $25,210 $82,047 $58,498 $57,250

2012 $389 $1,249 $142 $1,780 $1,186 $57,791 $25,633 $83,425 $55,589 $54,404

2013 $395 $1,270 $144 $1,809 $1,127 $58,762 $26,064 $84,826 $52,825 $51,698

2014 $402 $1,291 $147 $1,840 $1,071 $59,749 $26,501 $86,250 $50,198 $49,128

2015 $409 $1,313 $149 $1,871 $1,018 $60,752 $26,947 $87,699 $47,702 $46,685

TOTAL $3,537 $12,195 $1,578 $17,310 $12,889 $564,301 $250,295 $814,596 $606,553 $593,664

Benefit-Cost Ratio 47.1 

Because there is great uncertainty concerning: (1) the number of 9-to-15-passenger van carriers 

that operate interstate under a 75-air-mile-radius, and (2) the percent reduction in fatal crashes and 

injury crashes, sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the effects of varying these 

parameters on the monetary impact of the proposed rule. An upper and lower bound for the 

number of carriers affected was generated by a bracket of 50 percent above and below the average 

estimate of 1,590 yielding 2,385 and 795, respectively (see Section 3.2.4). As discussed in Section 

4.3, there is some uncertainty concerning the expected benefits resulting from the implementation 

of the FMCSRs to all interstate motor carriers. Consequently, a sensitivity analysis was performed 

using an upper bound of 73.5 percent for fatality crashes and 18.4 percent for injury crashes and a 

lower bound of 6.5 percent for fatality crashes and 1.6 percent for injury crashes. 

Table 30 presents the lowest case scenario assuming 795 affected carriers and a reduction in 

6.5 percent in fatality crashes and 1.6 percent in injury crashes. The net benefits over the 10-year 

analysis time frame are estimated to be $42 million and the benefit-cost ratio remains positive at 

7.6. 

 67 
Table 30. Lower Bound Benefit-cost Summary (in thousands) 

Year 

Medical 

Certification 

Costs 

Repair and 

Maintenance 

Costs 

DQF 

Costs 

Total 

Costs 

Total 

Discounted 

Costs 

Avoided 

Fatalities 

Benefits 

Avoided 

Injuries 

Benefits 

Total 

Benefits 

(Avoided 

Costs) 

Total 

Discounted 

Benefits 

Net 

Benefits 

2006 $178 $565 $160 $903 $903 $4,249 $1,856 $6,105 $6,105 $5,202

2007 $47 $575 $65 $687 $642 $4,320 $1,887 $6,207 $5,801 $5,159

2008 $182 $584 $66 $832 $727 $4,393 $1,919 $6,311 $5,513 $4,786

2009 $185 $594 $68 $846 $691 $4,467 $1,951 $6,417 $5,239 $4,548

2010 $188 $604 $69 $861 $657 $4,542 $1,983 $6,525 $4,978 $4,321

2011 $191 $614 $70 $875 $624 $4,618 $2,017 $6,635 $4,731 $4,107

2012 $194 $624 $71 $890 $593 $4,696 $2,051 $6,746 $4,495 $3,902

2013 $198 $635 $72 $905 $563 $4,774 $2,085 $6,860 $4,272 $3,708

2014 $201 $646 $73 $920 $535 $4,855 $2,120 $6,975 $4,059 $3,524

2015 $204 $656 $75 $935 $509 $4,936 $2,156 $7,092 $3,857 $3,349

TOTAL $1,769 $6,097 $789 $8,655 $6,445 $45,849 $20,024 $65,873 $49,049 $42,605

Benefit-cost Ratio 7.6 

Table 31 presents the upper bound scenario assuming 2,835 affected carriers and a reduction in 

fatality crashes of 73.5 percent and injury crashes of 18.4 percent. Using these assumptions, the 

net benefit of the proposed rule over the 10-year time frame is 1.7 billion. 

Table 31. Upper Bound Benefit-cost Summary (in thousands) 

Year 

Medical 

Certification 

Costs 

Repair and 

Maintenance 

Costs 

DQF 

Costs 

Total 

Costs 

Total 

Discounted 

Costs 

Avoided 

Fatalities 

Benefits 

Avoided 

Injuries 

Benefits 

Total 

Benefits 

(Avoided 

Costs) 

Total 

Discounted 

Benefits 

Net 

Benefits 

2006 $534 $1,696 $479 $2,709 $2,709 $144,140 $64,020 $208,160 $208,160 $205,451

2007 $142 $1,724 $196 $2,062 $1,927 $146,561 $65,095 $211,656 $197,809 $195,882

2008 $545 $1,753 $199 $2,497 $2,181 $149,022 $66,188 $215,210 $187,973 $185,792

2009 $555 $1,782 $203 $2,539 $2,073 $151,525 $67,300 $218,825 $178,626 $176,553

2010 $564 $1,812 $206 $2,582 $1,970 $154,069 $68,430 $222,500 $169,744 $167,774

2011 $573 $1,842 $210 $2,625 $1,872 $156,657 $69,579 $226,236 $161,303 $159,431

2012 $583 $1,873 $213 $2,669 $1,779 $159,288 $70,748 $230,035 $153,282 $151,504

2013 $593 $1,905 $217 $2,714 $1,690 $161,963 $71,936 $233,899 $145,660 $143,970

2014 $603 $1,937 $220 $2,760 $1,606 $164,683 $73,144 $237,827 $138,417 $136,811

2015 $613 $1,969 $224 $2,806 $1,526 $167,448 $74,372 $241,821 $131,534 $130,008

TOTAL $5,306 $18,292 $2,367 $25,965 $19,334 $1,555,355 $690,814 $2,246,168 $1,672,510 $1,653,177

Benefit-cost Ratio 86.5 

 68 
The total compliance costs estimated for eliminating the 75-air-mile criterion for the entire 

industry of interstate 9-to-15-passenger van operators range from $13 to $19 million over the 

10-year analysis time frame. In 2006, the estimated cost burden estimated for affected 

operations would be an average of $1,136 per operation. 

To estimate the regulatory impact on small businesses, business information was available and 

obtained for 22 9-to-15-passenger van operators chosen from the MCMIS Census File. Because 

the Census File can recognize only 9-to-15-passenger van carriers that operate within or outside 

a 100-statute-mile radius, there may be carriers in this list that already operate under the Federal 

safety regulations because they run more than 75-air-miles but fewer than 100-statute-miles from 

their reporting location. As mentioned previously, four businesses of this sample of 22 reported 

annual revenues higher than $6.5 million. This implies that small businesses account for 

approximately 82 percent of the total businesses affected by eliminating the 75-air-mile criterion. 

However, a simple percentage of the number of small businesses out of the total industry 

affected may not be an appropriate measure of the percentage of costs imposed on these 

businesses because it does not take into account the relative market share of the small businesses 

to the total industry. Further, total revenues may not be representative of only the 

9-to-15-passenger van carrier operations since some carriers may have other revenue sources, 

such as motor coach services. 

A more appropriate measure of the proportion of regulatory burden on small business would be 

the percentage of 9-to-15-passenger vans operated by small businesses compared with those 

operated by all businesses. Out of the 22 representative carriers, there were 505 

9-to-15-passenger vans. Of those, 383, or 76 percent, were operated by small businesses. 

Tables 32 through 34 present the costs of the proposed rule change on small businesses based on 

this percentage of vans for three cost scenarios that vary depending on the number of estimated 

vans (lower bound of 795 carriers, expected case of 1,590 carriers, and an upper bound of 2,385 

carriers). 

Table 32. Small Business Cost Impacts (in thousands) 

Year 

Medical 

Certification 

Costs 

Repair and 

Maintenance 

Costs 

DQF Costs Total Costs 

Total 

Discounted 

Costs 

2006 $271 $859 $243 $1,373 $1,373 

2007 $72 $873 $99 $1,045 $976 

2008 $276 $888 $101 $1,265 $1,105 

2009 $281 $903 $103 $1,287 $1,050 

2010 $286 $918 $104 $1,308 $998 

2011 $291 $933 $106 $1,330 $948 

2012 $295 $949 $108 $1,352 $901 

2013 $300 $965 $110 $1,375 $856 

2014 $305 $981 $112 $1,398 $814 

2015 $311 $998 $114 $1,422 $773 

TOTAL $2,688 $9,268 $1,199 $13,155 $9,796 

 69 
Table 33. Lower Bound Small Business Cost Impacts (in thousands) 

Year 

Medical 

Certification 

Costs 

Repair and 

Maintenance 

Costs 

DQF Costs Total Costs 

Total 

Discounted 

Costs 

2006 $135 $430 $121 $686 $686 

2007 $36 $437 $50 $522 $488 

2008 $138 $444 $51 $633 $553 

2009 $141 $451 $51 $643 $525 

2010 $143 $459 $52 $654 $499 

2011 $145 $467 $53 $665 $474 

2012 $148 $475 $54 $676 $451 

2013 $150 $483 $55 $688 $428 

2014 $153 $491 $56 $699 $407 

2015 $155 $499 $57 $711 $387 

TOTAL $1,344 $4,634 $600 $6,578 $4,898 

NOTE: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. 

Table 34. Upper Bound Small Business Cost Impacts (in thousands) 

Year 

Medical 

Certification 

Costs 

Repair and 

Maintenance 

Costs 

DQF Costs Total Costs 

Total 

Discounted 

Costs 

2006 $406 $1,289 $364 $2,059 $2,059 

2007 $108 $1,310 $149 $1,567 $1,465 

2008 $415 $1,332 $152 $1,898 $1,658 

2009 $422 $1,354 $154 $1,930 $1,575 

2010 $429 $1,377 $157 $1,962 $1,497 

2011 $436 $1,400 $159 $1,995 $1,423 

2012 $443 $1,424 $162 $2,029 $1,352 

2013 $451 $1,448 $165 $2,063 $1,285 

2014 $458 $1,472 $167 $2,097 $1,221 

2015 $466 $1,497 $170 $2,133 $1,160 

TOTAL $4,032 $13,902 $1,799 $19,733 $14,694 

NOTE: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. 

 70 
6.0 CONCLUSIONS 

Based on a Federal regulation implemented in December 2003, for-hire 9-to-15-passenger vans 

operating interstate greater than 75-air-miles from the drivers’ reporting location are required to 

comply with the FMCSRs. Those for-hire carriers operating interstate less than 75-air-miles 

from the driver’s reporting location were exempt from this requirement. A potential change in 

the regulations is mandated by the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity 

Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) that was passed by Congress in 2005. Section 4136 

of this Act addressed interstate van operations and stated: 

The Federal motor carrier safety regulations that apply to interstate operations of 

commercial motor vehicles designed to transport between 9 and 15 passengers 

(including the driver) shall apply to all interstate operations of such carriers 

regardless of the distance traveled. 

FMCSA is considering the potential benefits and costs of regulations to implement the 

provisions of this statute. This report presents the results of a project designed to analyze the 

potential costs and benefits that would result from requiring those carriers that are currently 

operating 9-to-15-passenger vans interstate but are not covered under the FMCSRs to comply 

with the regulation. The analyses in this report are directed at assisting the FMCSA in making 

the evaluations associated with amending the regulations. 

6.1 Findings 

If the FMCSRs are applied to interstate carriers that are currently not covered by the regulations, 

an estimated 1,590 new carriers would come under the regulations. The total estimated 

compliance cost for those carriers in 2006 would be $1.81 million or $1,135 per carrier. Over a 

ten-year period, assuming a 1.7 percent growth rate in the number of new carriers in 2015, there 

will be an estimated 1,847 carriers. Assuming a 7 percent discount rate, the total discounted cost 

to those carriers over the ten-year period will be $13 million or $7,000 per carrier. 

Benefits were estimated based on calculated reductions in injuries and fatalities stemming from 

compliance with the FMCSRs. By including these 1,590 carriers under the regulations, there 

would be a 40 percent reduction in the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio and a 10 percent reduction in the 

injury-crash-to-crash ratio. Assuming average annual miles traveled, fleet size, and accident 

rates remain unchanged, an estimated 13 fatalities and 117 injuries will be prevented each year 

by bringing the 1,590 carriers under the regulations. If 13 fatalities are avoided, costs would be 

reduced by $52 million. If 117 injuries are avoided, costs would be reduced by an additional 

$23 million, with an annual total estimated reduction of $75 million for fatality and injury 

damages. Holding the crash reduction percentage constant and assuming a 1.7 percent growth 

rate and a discount rate of 7 percent results in a total cost reduction over a 10-year period of 

$606 million. Of this total, $420 million can be attributed to the reduction in fatalities and 

$186 million to the reduction in injuries. The net benefit-cost ratio is a positive 47 to 1. 

 71 
A sensitivity analysis was performed to look at the effect of possible changes in the number of 

carriers and the fatal and injury crash ratios. Assuming a standard deviation in the number of 

carriers coming under the regulations of 25 percent, and a 42 percent standard deviation for the 

crash ratio estimates, then it can be stated with 95 percent confidence that the number of carriers 

will be between 795 and 2,385. Furthermore, the reduction in the crash ratio could be between 

6.5 and 74 percent for the fatal-crash-to-crash ratio and between 1.6 and 18.4 percent for the 

injury-crash-to-crash ratio. Since the benefit-cost ratio is so high, and both the costs and benefits 

are proportional to the number of carriers, the ratio will be minimized by using the low bound 

numbers. When the lower numbers are put into the equations, the benefit-cost ratio is reduced to 

7.6. Therefore, this data analysis shows with greater than 95 percent confidence that the benefitcost ratio is positive by more than a factor of 7.6 to 1. 

A survey of motor carriers showed that 76 percent of the carriers operating vans that will be 

affected by including all interstate for-hire carriers under the FMCSRs will be small businesses. 

The expected total discounted cost to small businesses over the 10-year period from 2006 

through 2015 was estimated to be $9 million. Based on the sensitivity analysis performed using 

all potentially covered carriers, the impacts on small business could range from $4.0 million to 

$14.6 million over the 10-year period. 

6.2 Recommendations 

Five major recommendations were developed after an analysis of the project results: 

1. All for-hire passenger van carriers operating in interstate commerce should be included 

under the FMCSRs. Not only would this be cost-effective but it also would result in the 

avoidance of a considerable number of fatalities and serious injuries. 

2. To further increase the safety of 9-to-15-passenger vans, improvement in driver 

capabilities should be made. Upgraded driver training programs should be considered. 

3. Additional research should be conducted to collect data and analyze the operational and 

safety performance of the “camioneta” industry. Many carriers involved in this industry 

currently are not complying with the FMCSRs even when operating in interstate 

commerce beyond the 75-air-mile threshold. 

4. One of the major uncertainties associated with this study was the underreporting of 

reportable 9-to-15-passenger van accidents. FMCSA should study ways to increase the 

percentage of these accidents that are reported in MCMIS. Until this is done, 

uncertainties in assessments of regulatory changes directed at improving the safety of 

9-to-15-passenger vans operations will continue to be significant. 

 72 
7.0 REFERENCES 

1. American Bus Association. “Improperly Inflated Tires Boost Accidents in 9-15 passenger 

vans.” http://www.buses.org/press_room/the_report_newsletter/1060.cfm. 

2. Armstrong, David. “Have Shuttle, Will Travel, Travel Slump Sparks Airport Vans to Go 

After New Clientele,” San Francisco Chronicle, August 14, 2003. http://www.sfgate.com/

cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/08/14/BU273261.DTL . 

3. Borden, Teresa. “Van services a conduit for illegal immigrants.” Atlanta Journal 

Constitution. August 21, 2005. 

4. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). “Gross Domestic Product by Industry Accounts,” 

December 15, 2005. http://www.bea.gov/bea/industry/gpotables/gpo_action.cfm?anon=

130&table_id=12759&format_type=0. 

5. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Inflation Calculator. http://data.bls.gov/cgibin/cpicalc.pl. 

6. Ellis, David, and Hanley, Phil. “Characteristics of Camioneta Van Operations in Texas,” 

Proceedings International Truck and Bus Safety Research and Policy Symposium, 

April 3-5, 2002. 

7. Ellis, David. “Improving Camioneta Van Service in Texas,” Texas Transportation 

Researcher 37, (4) (2001). 

8. Ellis, David, Texas Transportation Institute (TTI). Telephone Interview, 

December 19, 2005. 

9. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). Drivers Certification Form. 

http://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/rules-regulations/administration/fmcsr/

fmcsrruletext.asp?rule_toc=760§ion=391.27§ion_toc=1774. 

10. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA). “Safety Program Effectiveness 

Measurement: Roadside Inspection and Traffic Enforcement Effectiveness Annual 

Report,” 2004. http://ai.fmcsa.dot.gov/CarrierResearchResults/HTML/IntModel_2004/

Intervention_Model.html. 

11. Foley Services. Driver Qualification File Folder Pak. 

http://www.foleyservices.com/pc-54-13-driver-qualification-file-folder-pak.aspx 

12. Iowa Department of Transportation (IDOT). “Annual Periodic Vehicle Inspection 

Report,” Office of Motor Vehicle Enforcement. 

http://www.dot.state.ia.us/mvd/omve/inspection.pdf. 

 73 
13. J.J. Keller and Associates. Deluxe Driver Qualification File Packets. 

http://www.jjkeller.com/browse/product.html?group_id=2376&ticket=7010315065471879

295983314131&pageseq=10000. 

14. Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS). “Data Dissemination Catalog 

& Documentation,” Spring 2004. 

http://mcmiscatalog.fmcsa.dot.gov/beta/Catalogs&Documentation/ 

15. Mundy, Ray, Director of the Airport Ground Transportation Association, Telephone 

Interview, February 6, 2006. 

16. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). “The Rollover Propensity of 

Fifteen-Passenger Vans.” April 2001. 

17. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). “Analysis of Crashes 

Involving 15-Passenger Vans.” DOT HS 809 735. May 2004. 

18. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). “Testing the Effects of Tire 

Pressure Monitoring System Minimum Activation Pressure on the Handling and Rollover 

Resistance of a 15-Passenger Van.” June 2004. 

19. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). “NPRM on Tire Pressure 

Monitoring System FMVSS No. 138: Preliminary Regulatory Impact Analysis.” 

September 2004. 

20. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). “12 & 15 Passenger Vans 

Tire Pressure Study: Preliminary Results.” May 2005. 

21. National Safety Council (NSC) “Estimating the Costs of Unintentional Injuries,” 2004. 

22. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). “Highway Accident Report: 15-Passenger 

Child Care Van Run-Off-Road Accident Memphis, TN, April 4, 2002.” Notation 7623. 

4/7/2004. 

23. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). “Highway Accident Brief: 15-Passenger 

Van Median Crossover and Impact with Truck, Interstate 55 Near Milepost 250 In Will 

County, IL, 6.5 Miles Southwest of Joliet, IL, January 26, 2001.” Bureau of Accident 

Investigation. February 22, 2002. 

24. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). “Highway Accident Report: 15-Passenger 

Van Single-Vehicle Rollover Accidents, Henrietta, TX, May 8, 2001, and Randleman, NC, 

July 1, 2001.” July 15, 2003. 

 74 
25. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). “Safety Alert –15 Passenger Vans,” SA001. December 2004.

26. Office of Management and Budget (OMB). “Guidelines and Discount Rates for BenefitCost Analysis of Federal Programs.” Circular A-94 (2002). 

27. Property Casualty Insurers Association of America. “15 Passenger Van Rollover 

Accidents: Breaking the Chain of Causation.” 2005. 

28. Public Citizen with C. Tab Turner. “Stopping Rollovers: The Dual-Wheel Solution for 

15-Passenger Vans.” November 2002. 

29. Rural Migration News. “California Farm Labor Laws,” Rural Migration News, Volume 6, 

(3), July, 2000. 

30. Safety Forum. “15-Passenger Vans: High-Riding Death Traps.” 

http://www.safetyforum.com/passengervans/. November 2005. 

31. Sherman, Jennifer. “Rural Rush Hour,” Rural California Report, Fall 1996. 

32. Tire Industry Association (TIA) Letter to NHTSA. “Re: NHTSA Docket 2004-19054 

Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Tire Pressure Monitoring Systems; Controls & 

Displays.” November 15, 2004. 

33. Valenzuela, Abel. “Planes, Trains, or Camionetas? A Baseline Study of an Informal Travel 

Mode.” University of California, Transportation Center. April 1, 2003. 

 75 
APPENDIX A: MCMIS REPORTING RATE 

The following analysis was performed by the University of Michigan Transportation Research 

Institute (UMTRI). The objective is to estimate the annual number of 9-to-15-passenger buses 

involved in crashes that are required to be reported to the MCMIS Crash File. 

Table A-1 shows counts of crash involvements in the MCMIS Crash File by bus size and year. 

The counts vary widely year-to-year. The number of 9-to-15-passenger van involvements 

reported more than doubled between 2001 and 2004, while the overall number of bus 

involvements actually declined over that period. Total bus involvements reported dropped from 

9,293 to 6,044 between 2001 and 2002. Clearly, the numbers of involvements reported annually 

are not stable and likely are not reliable, simply based on the evidence of their instability. Safety 

does not vary by 50 percent, year to year. The more likely explanation of the observed variation 

is problems reporting the data. 

Table A-1. Crash Involvements by Bus Size and Year, 

MCMIS Crash File 

Bus Size 2001 2002 2003 2004 

9-15 pass. 394 494 701 898 

>15 pass. 9,399 5,550 5,861 8,077 

Total 9,793 6,044 6,562 8,975 

Table A-2 shows fatal bus involvements reported in MCMIS and UMTRI’s Buses Involved in 

Fatal Accidents (BIFA) survey, for 9-to-15-passenger buses and larger buses. The BIFA survey 

is derived from the FARS census of fatal motor vehicle crashes, and represents the best available 

count of the true number of fatal bus involvements. However, the limitations of the BIFA survey 

should be recognized. Nine-to-fifteen-passenger vans are difficult to identify correctly and 

exhaustively in the crash data because the vehicle type employed overlaps in size and seating 

capacity with private vehicles used for personal transportation. Many of the same models used 

for 9-to-15-passenger buses are also used by families and private individuals as personal 

transportation. It is therefore likely that the number identified in BIFA, even with the data 

collection methodology employed to confirm the identification, undercounts the true number of 

such vehicles. There are probably an underdetermined number of buses, identified only as large 

vans in FARS, with no indication that they were used as buses. 

 A-1 
Table A-2. Fatal Bus Involvements Reported in MCMIS and BIFA, 

2001-2003 by Bus Seating Capacity 

Bus Type MCMIS BIFA Reporting 

Rate 

9-15 pass. vans 48 60 0.80 

>15 pass. bus 450 824 0.55 

All buses 498 944* 0.53 

*Bus capacity could not be determined for 60 cases. 

Table A-2 shows the number of 9-to-15-passenger buses and larger buses identified in the 

MCMIS Crash File and the BIFA survey for 2001 through 2003. Only the total count is shown. 

Cases in the two files were not matched to test if the same vehicles were reported in each file. 

Overall, 80 percent of 9-to-15-passenger buses fatal involvements were reported in the MCMIS 

Crash. The reporting rate for larger buses is actually lower. Only 55 percent of fatal 

involvements of larger buses were reported to MCMIS over those years. 

The higher reporting rate for smaller buses is anomalous. Generally, reporting rates vary by 

vehicle type (with trucks reported at a much higher rate than buses), vehicle size (with large 

vehicles reported at a much higher rate than small vehicles), and crash severity (with more 

serious crashes reported at a higher rate than less serious). Since buses and small vehicles are 

reported at a lower rate, one would expect small buses to be even more under-reported than large 

buses. But that does not appear to be the case here. However, given the uncertainties with both 

the BIFA and MCMIS files, not too much should be inferred from this finding. 

Reporting rates to the MCMIS Crash File can be estimated from a set of evaluations of reporting 

by individual States performed by UMTRI. In these evaluations, UMTRI acquired several 

States’ Crash Files for all motor vehicle crashes in the State. UMTRI developed algorithms in 

each State to identify records that qualified for reporting to the MCMIS Crash File. Reportable 

cases involve either a truck, bus, or placarded light vehicle involved in a crash in which there 

was either a fatality, injury transported for treatment, or a vehicle towed due to disabling 

damage. 

The States evaluated were selected as part of a continuing FMCSA program to improve State 

reporting to the MCMIS Crash File. As such, States were targeted based on their size and known 

rates of underreporting of fatal crash involvements in comparison with NHTSA’s FARS file. 

However, as a practical matter the availability of State crash data for comparison also played a 

role in selecting States for evaluation. Accordingly, the rates of underreporting are probably 

somewhat higher than the overall rate for all States. 

Table A-3 shows reporting rates for six States in 2003 by various items and includes a column 

showing the weighted reporting rate estimated from the six States (or in the case of trucks and 

buses, five), weighted by the number of reportable cases in the State. Overall, only 27.6 percent 

of reportable bus involvements are actually reported, compared with 56.6 percent of truck 

 A-2 
involvements. Fatal involvements tend to be reported at a higher rate than nonfatal (injury or 

towaway) involvements. 

Table A-3. State Reporting Rates to MCMIS Crash File 

 California Florida Michigan New 

Jersey 

New 

Mexico 

North 

Carolina 

Crash Year 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 2003 

Weighted 

Reporting 

Rate 

Overall 72.0 24.0 73.7 82.5 9.0 48.2 56.1

Fatal 84.2 55.6 92.4 67.4 27.5 63.3 69.5

Injury 73.9 26.5 73.1 81.5 11.0 49.4 57.2

Towaway 70.9 20.0 73.4 83.2 6.8 47.1 54.7

Trucks 75.5 27.0 n/a* 82.7 10.5 52.5 56.6

Buses 24.8 2.8 n/a 82.2 3.3 9.9 27.6

Reportable Cases 11,944 13,797 5,911 10,103 1,042 8,517 

* Vehicle type could not be cleanly distinguished in Michigan. 

Three methods were developed to estimate the total number of 9-to-15-passenger bus 

involvements that met the MCMIS reporting criteria: 

1. Estimate the total number of recordable crash involvements from the known number of 

fatal crash involvements: 

a) Use the BIFA estimate of the total number of fatal 9-to-15-passenger bus 

involvements. 

b) Determine the ratio of fatal to injury to towaway involvements in the MCMIS Crash 

File. 

c) Apply those ratios to the BIFA total. 

2. Apply the inverse of the reporting rate for buses in the five States for which a vehicle 

type reporting rate can be determined to counts of 9-to-15-passenger vans reported to the 

MCMIS Crash File for a three-year average. 

3. Apply the inverse of the reporting rates by crash severity (for all vehicle types) in the six 

States to a three-year average of buses reported by crash severity to the MCMIS Crash 

File. 

Table A-4 shows the derivation of an annual estimate of the number of 9-to-15-passenger van 

crashes that meet the MCMIS reporting criteria from the total number of fatal involvements in 

BIFA. On average, twenty 9-to-15-passenger buses were involved in a fatal crash from 2001 to 

2003. The table also shows the annual average number of reportable crash involvements for all 

reportable vehicle types by crash severity. These numbers were used to calculate the ratio of 

fatal-to-injury and fatal-to-towaway involvements. These ratios are shown in the column headed 

 A-3 
“ratio.” Using the ratios of fatal-to-injury and fatal-to-towaway crashes estimated to be 

reportable from the six States evaluated by UMTRI, we can estimate that there are 286 injury 

involvements and 576 towaway involvements annually reportable to the MCMIS Crash File 

nationally for 9-to-15-passenger buses. The primary limitation of this method of determination 

is that it depends critically on the accuracy of the number of such involvements identified in 

BIFA. As noted above, the 9-to-15-passenger bus type is the most difficult to identify 

accurately. Accordingly, this estimate is a lower bound for the true number. 

Table A-4. Estimate of Annual Number of MCMIS-reportable 

9-to-15-Passenger Bus Crash Involvements 

Crash Severity 

Annual Average 

Number of Cases 

Reportable to MCMIS, 

2001-2003 

Ratio Applied 

to BIFA 

Fatal 194 1.0 20* 

Injury 2,765 14.3 286 

Towaway 5,578 28.8 576 

Total 8,536 44.1 882 

* Annual average number of 9-to-15-passenger buses in BIFA, for 2001-2003. 

NOTE: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. 

The second method of estimating the total number of 9-to-15-passenger bus involvements 

reportable to the MCMIS Crash File simply applies the inverse of the reporting rate for bus 

crashes, as estimated from analysis of the five States for which a bus reporting rate could be 

determined, to the number of bus involvements actually reported. A three-year average is taken 

because of the fluctuation of cases reported year to year. The evaluation of the individual States 

showed that 27.6 percent of reportable bus involvements are actually reported to the MCMIS 

Crash File. The inverse of this is 3.62, the factor applied to the number of bus cases actually 

reported. 

Table A-5 tabulates the result, and shows 9-to-15-passenger buses separately from larger buses. 

The method produces an estimate of 1,919 9-to-15-passenger bus involvements reportable to 

MCMIS annually. This is about twice the estimate produced by estimating from the count of 

involvements in BIFA. The primary limitation to this approach is whether the reporting rate for 

buses in one year for the five is representative of the national reporting rate for buses. The States 

selected, as noted above, probably have somewhat higher rates of underreporting but it is clear 

that the amount of underreporting is substantial. However, note the extent of the variance in the 

reporting rates in Table A-3. There is considerable uncertainty in the estimate. 

 A-4 
Table A-5. Estimate of Annual Number of MCMIS-reportable 

Bus Crash Involvements Adjusted by Bus-reporting Rate 

Bus Type 

2001-2003 

Average 

Reported to 

MCMIS 

Estimated 

from Bus 

Reporting 

Rate 

9-to-15-passenger bus 530 1,919 

>15-passenger bus 6,937 25,134 

Total 7,466 27,053 

NOTE: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. 

The third method of estimating the number of MCMIS-reportable 9-to-15-passenger buses 

adjusts for the different reporting rates by crash severity. Analysis of reporting by the six States 

evaluated showed that fatal involvements are reported at the highest rate while injury and 

towaway crashes are reported at lower rates. In this procedure, the number of bus involvements 

actually reported is adjusted to account for underreporting by injury level. 

Table A-6 provides the numbers used in the adjustment, along with the results. Using this 

method, we estimate that there are 944 MCMIS-reportable crash involvements of 

9-to-15-passenger buses. Note that this number is close to the 882 bus involvements estimated 

using the BIFA file. However, the reporting rates used in the adjustment here are for all

reportable vehicles, trucks as well as buses. Thus, it is likely that the reporting rates used here 

overestimate the reporting rate by crash severity for buses, and the total number estimated is low 

rather than high. 

Table A-6. Estimate of Annual Number of MCMIS-reportable Bus Crash Involvements 

Adjusted for Crash-severity Reporting Rates 

3-year Average, 2001-2003, 

Cases Report to MCMIS Adjusted Estimate Crash 

Severity 9-15 

Passenger 

>15 

Passenger Total 

Adjustment 

Factor 9-15 

Passenger

>15 

Passenger Total 

Fatal 16 150 166 1.44 23 216 239 

Injury 321 3,778 4,100 1.75 562 6,604 7,165 

Towaway 193 3,008 3,201 1.83 352 5,503 5,855 

All 530 6,937 7,467 1.78 944 12,359 13,303 

NOTE: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. 

In sum, the three methods used here produced three different estimates, ranging from 882 to 

1,919. All three methods have significant limitations. The primary conclusion is that the annual 

number of 9-to-15-passenger bus crash involvements is uncertain. A secondary conclusion is 

that it likely ranges from 900 to 2,000, but it is unknown where in the range the true number lies. 

 A-5 
APPENDIX B: COMPARISON OF MCMIS AND GES 

The following tables provide estimates of bus involvements in crashes from NHTSA’s General 

Estimates System (GES) file. GES is a nationally representative sample of police-reported motor 

vehicle crashes. 

Table B-1 shows crash involvements that meet the MCMIS Crash File criteria (i.e., a fatality, 

injury transported for treatment, or at least one vehicle towed due to damage). The MCMIS 

reporting criteria can be adequately approximated in the GES file. A variable in GES records for 

each involved person whether the person was transported for immediate medical attention. The 

towaway criterion is not precisely reproduced in the GES file. A variable records whether an 

involved motor vehicle was towed due to disabling damage or for another reason. However, an 

analysis done several years ago showed that the distinction in the GES file was not reliable.10 

This filter is the best available approximation for the Crash File criteria. 

Table B-1. MCMIS Reportable Crash Involvements by Bus Type, 

Estimated from GES 

Crash Year Bus Type 2001 2002 2003 Average 

Van-based school 182 181 534 299 

Van-based other 922 1,860 2,154 1,645 

School bus 8,991 7,713 9,197 8,634 

Other bus type 7,427 9,056 7,361 7,948 

Unknown bus type 191 130 324 215 

Total 17,713 18,939 19,570 18,741 

NOTE: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. 

The bus types shown in Table B-1 (and Table B-2 as well) are those identified in GES. The 

van-based school and van-based other bus type is a not-entirely unreasonable surrogate for 

9-to-15-passenger buses. The annual estimate for van-based buses reportable to MCMIS in 

GES is 1,944, which is very similar to the estimate from method 2 in Appendix A. 

There is some uncertainty associated with estimates from GES. The standard error for estimates 

of small numbers in GES is relatively large. The standard error for an estimate of 2,000 is 613; 

 

10 The analysis was done by UMTRI in the mid-90s while preparing a Truck Factbook for FMCSA. Based on 

consulting with Terry Shelton, now at FMCSA but then overseeing the GES program, it was concluded that the 

distinction of towed due to damage or towed for some other reason was not reliable. It is unknown whether it is 

reliable in recent years, but the small percentage of cases for reasons other than disabling damage is not large 

enough to make a material difference in the results presented here. 

 B-1 
twice the standard error is the 95 percent confidence interval, so the estimate of MCMISreportable crash involvements of van-based buses from GES is 2,000 ±1,226. 

Table B-2 shows estimates of all police-reported crash involvements for buses. Since GES is a 

nationally representative sample of police reports, there is some variation in the reporting 

threshold between jurisdictions; however, this is the best available estimate. 

Table B-2. Crash Involvements by Bus Type 

Estimated from GES 

Crash Year Bus Type 2001 2002 2003 Average 

Van-based school 966 1,499 1,564 1,343 

Van-based other 4,546 7,078 5,676 5,767 

School bus 25,959 27,134 29,252 27,448 

Other bus type 26,206 28,839 27,016 27,354 

Unknown bus type 2,078 1,847 1,585 1,837 

Total 59,756 66,397 65,092 63,748 

NOTE: Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. 

 B-2 
APPENDIX C: MCS-150 FORM 

 C-1 
APPENDIX D: COMPARISON OF INSPECTION DATA 

One component of MCMIS is the Inspection File, which contains records for driver and vehicle 

inspections performed as part of compliance reviews, roadside inspections, and other safety 

programs. These inspections form a rich resource of information about the driver and vehicle 

condition and their compliance with driver and vehicle standards. The purpose of the analysis in 

this section is to compare inspection results for carriers subject to safety regulations and those 

that are not subject to those regulations. This is of interest because it is expected that carriers 

operating vehicles and drivers that meet the standards will have higher levels of safety than 

carriers that do not. Inspection results were compared for two groups of bus operators: those 

which FMCSRs apply, and those which FMCSRs do not apply. 

The Inspection File does not include variables that describe the type of carrier, so it is necessary 

to match the Inspection File to the Census File by the USDOT number to get the necessary 

information. First, for-hire bus operators were identified in the MCMIS Census File using 

criteria consistent with those used in Section 2.3.1. In the MCMIS Census File there are 4,662 

bus for-hire operators that can be clearly identified as for-hire. The following criteria were used 

to identify for-hire bus operators: 

1. Authorized, exempt, migrant carrier, with no other classification claimed. 

2. Transports only passengers. 

To identify the for-hire bus operators to whom safety regulations apply: 

1. Interstate operations and either no information on drivers or one or more drivers who 

drive beyond 100-statute-miles of their reporting location, 

or, 

2. Interstate operations but no drivers driving beyond 100-statute-miles of their reporting 

location and operates buses seating more than 15, 

or, 

3. Intrastate operations but one or more drivers driving interstate beyond 100 miles of their 

reporting location. 

 D-1 
To identify for-hire bus operators to whom safety regulations do not apply: 

1. Intrastate operations and no interstate drivers, 

or, 

2. Interstate operations and no interstate drivers driving interstate beyond 100-statute-miles 

of their reporting location and at least one interstate driver driving interstate less than 

100-statute-miles of their reporting location and the carrier does not operate buses larger 

than 15 passengers. 

In brief, the safety regulations do not currently to apply to (1) intrastate carriers operating any 

bus type, or (2) interstate carriers operating within 100-statute-miles of their reporting location 

and operating only 9-to-15-passenger vans. A carrier marked as intrastate but which had drivers 

who drive interstate was considered as an interstate carrier. If the drivers only drove within 100 

miles interstate and the carrier did not operate buses larger than 15 passengers, then the safety 

regulations would be considered not to apply. 

The safety regulations do apply to (1) any interstate carrier either with no driver information or 

interstate drivers >100 miles, (2) any intrastate carrier with interstate drivers > 100 miles, (3) any 

interstate carrier with no interstate drivers >100 AND interstate drivers <100 AND operating 

buses bigger than 15 passenger capacity. Interstate carriers with no driver information are 

included in the regulated category because it was judged they would most likely fall into that 

category if complete information were available. Note that this category includes carriers that 

operate buses with capacities larger than 9 to 15 passengers. The purpose here is to compare bus 

carriers to which the safety regulations apply to those to which the regulations do not apply. 

All carriers that operate ONLY 1-to-8-passenger vehicles are deleted. There are 182 such 

carriers, leaving 4,480 for-hire bus operators for analysis. 

The purpose of selecting the 4,480 is (1) to identify any differences in safety between those 

subject to FMCSRs and those that are not, and (2) to describe the characteristics of the two 

groups. Accordingly, the 4,480 carriers should be considered to be a sample of the true bus 

population, rather than an estimate of the true bus population. 

These 4,480 for-hire bus carriers were matched to the file of Inspection records. There are 

approximately 10.4 million inspection records, covering the period from 2001 to 2005. The 

4,480 for-hire bus carriers were matched to the Inspection records using the USDOT Number. In 

the Census File, this number is recorded in a variable called CENSUS_NUM. In the Inspection 

File, it is recorded in a variable called DOT_NUMBER. The USDOT number is assigned by the 

FMCSA and uniquely identifies a carrier. 

Table D-1 shows the results of the match. Overall, inspection records were found for 2,281 of 

the 4,480 or 50.9 percent of carriers. The match rate was higher for carriers under the safety 

 D-2 
regulations than those who are not. Inspection records were found for only 24 percent of carriers 

not subject to the safety regulations, compared with 57.4 percent of the regulated carriers. If 

most inspections take place at weigh stations, one possible explanation is that the unregulated 

carriers are less likely to operate on roads that expose them to the risk of inspection. 

Unregulated carriers also may be allowed to bypass the inspection stations because no State 

regulations apply. 

Table D-1. Match Results by Carrier Type 

Carrier Type Not 

Matched Matched Total 

Safety Regulations Apply 1,535 2,071 3,606 

Safety Regulations do not Apply 664 210 874 

Total 2,199 2,281 4,480 

Table D-2 shows the number of inspections found for the two carrier types. 

Table D-2. Inspections by Carrier Type 

Carrier Type Total Inspections/ 

Carrier 

Safety Regulations Apply 50,883 24.6 

Safety Regulations do not Apply 2,099 10.0 

Total 52,982 23.2 

Note that the inspections are classified by the carrier characteristics, not the vehicle inspected. 

Carriers are classified by whether the safety regulations apply. The inspection data do not 

identify the size of the bus, and only identify a few bus types: bus, limousine, motor coach, and 

school bus. These bus types are not further defined in the documentation for the Inspection File 

(MCMIS, 2004). Thus, in the analysis of the inspection results that follows, the actual inspection 

may have been of a type of bus or even another vehicle type. The comparisons made are proper 

to the carriers, not vehicles. 

Table D-3 shows the distribution of the types of units inspected. Note that the “bus” category 

accounts for a bit more than 50 percent of both carrier types, but the motor coach category 

accounts for 40.8 percent of the units inspected for carriers subject to the safety regulations. 

However, but only 18.9 percent of carriers not subject to the regulations. Limousines, school 

buses, and “vans” are proportionately higher for carriers not subject to the regulations. 

 D-3 
Table D-3. Unit Inspected by Carrier Type 

Safety Regulations 

Apply 

Safety Regulations Do 

Not Apply Total Unit Type 

N % N % N % 

Missing data 124 0.2 1 0.0 125 0.2 

Bus 26,737 52.3 1,200 56.4 27,937 52.5 

Dolly Converter 2 0.0 0 0.0 2 0.0 

Full Trailer 15 0.0 4 0.2 19 0.0 

Limousine 143 0.3 126 5.9 269 0.5 

Motor Carrier*[sic] 20,861 40.8 401 18.9 21,262 39.9 

Other 114 0.2 11 0.5 125 0.2 

Pole Trailer 0 0.0 1 0.0 1 0.0 

School Bus 1,760 3.4 201 9.5 1,961 3.7 

Semi Trailer 200 0.4 21 1.0 221 0.4 

Straight Truck 270 0.5 44 2.1 314 0.6 

Truck Tractor 509 1.0 21 1.0 530 1.0 

Van 382 0.7 95 4.5 477 0.9 

Invalid data 1 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.0 

Total 51,118 100.0 2,126 100.0 53,244 100.0 

* Labeled as such in the inspection data, though no doubt a misprint for motor coach. 

The inspections evaluate compliance of both the vehicle and driver with applicable standards. 

Violations are recorded for each, as well as whether the violations are sufficient to put the 

vehicle or driver out-of-service. In the inspection data, there are six variables that capture counts 

of ordinary violations and out-of-service conditions for the driver, the vehicle, and the aggregate 

of violations and out-of-service conditions identified in the inspection. 

Table D-4 shows the available variables and the definitions of the variables as described in the 

file documentation. These six variables—driver violations, driver out-of-service conditions, 

vehicle violations, vehicle out-of-service conditions, total violations, and total out-of-service 

conditions—are used here as indicators for the carriers. 

 D-4 
Table D-4. Variable Definitions for Results of Inspections 

Total Violations 

(VIOL_TOTAL) Indicates the total number of violations for the inspection. 

Total Out-Of-Service Violations 

(OOS_TOTAL) Indicates the total number of out-of-service violations for the inspection. 

Total Driver Violations 

(DRIVER_VIOL_TOTAL) Indicates the total number of driver violations for the inspection. 

Total Driver Out-Of-Service 

(DRIVER_OOS_TOTAL) Indicates the total number of driver out-of-service violations for the inspection. 

Total Vehicle Violations 

(VEHICLE_VIOL_TOTAL) Indicates the total number of vehicle violations for the inspection. 

Total Vehicle Out-Of-Service 

(VEHICLE_OOS_TOTAL) Indicates the total number of vehicle out-of-service violations for the inspection. 

Table D-5 shows the overall results of the inspections for all matched carriers. There were a 

total of 52,982 inspections of the carriers. Overall, the inspection resulted in the vehicle or 

driver placed out-of-service in 9.9 percent of the inspections. At least one violation was 

discovered in 49.8 percent of the inspections. Vehicle violations were much more common than 

driver violations. Violations were recorded for only 13.6 percent of the drivers, compared with 

42.6 percent of the vehicles. 

Table D-5. Inspection Results for All Matched Carriers 

Inspection Result None One or 

More 

% One 

or More 

OOS_TOTAL 47,739 5,243 9.9% 

VIOL_TOTAL 26,592 26,390 49.8% 

VEHICLE_OOS_TOTAL 48,874 4,108 7.8% 

VEHICLE_VIOL_TOTAL 30,430 22,552 42.6% 

DRIVER_OOS_TOTAL 51,652 1,330 2.5% 

DRIVER_VIOL_TOTAL 45,773 7,209 13.6% 

Exempt and Non-exempt Carriers 

The comparison involves two types of carriers—those to which the safety regulations apply and 

those to which the safety regulations do not apply. The most specific goal of the project is to 

identify any safety differences between for-hire operators of 9-to-15-passenger vans in interstate 

commerce that are exempt from Federal safety regulation and for-hire operators of 9-to-15-

passenger vans in interstate commerce that are not exempt from regulation. Both the overall 

comparison between regulated and not-regulated groups and the more specific comparison of 

unregulated 9-to-15-passenger vans in interstate commerce and regulated 9-to-15-passenger van 

carriers in interstate commerce are addressed in this report. Arguably, we are concerned with the 

effect of Federal regulation on the behavior of for-hire bus carriers. There is no a priori reason to 

 D-5 
think that the effect would be different on carriers that operate 9-to-15-passenger buses than on 

those who do not operate such buses, so a comparison of regulated to not regulated is a 

reasonable approximation of the ideal comparison. 

These results are reflective of the operations and standards of the bus operators, but they are not 

themselves a measure of safety. While it is expected that operators with high rates of 

noncompliance with vehicle and driver standards also have higher rates of traffic crashes (and 

there is some literature that indicates such a relationship), safety is not directly measured here, 

just compliance with applicable vehicle and driver standards. The safety comparison must be 

made with different data. 

Overall, bus carriers subject to safety regulations have higher rates of violations and out-ofservice conditions for drivers, vehicles, and combined. Table D-6 shows the percentage of 

inspections that resulted in violations or out-of-service conditions for carriers to which the safety 

regulations apply and those to which they do not. The difference in the percentages is also 

shown along with the results of a test of significance. The test of significance tests whether the 

two percentages are statistically different, in other words, whether the percentage shown in the 

difference column is reliably different from zero. The usual significance level used to identify 

statistically significant results is 0.05; significance levels higher than 0.05 are not judged 

statistically reliable, while those below are considered reliable. 

Table D-6. Difference in Inspection Results by Carrier Type 

Safety Regulations 

Apply 

Safety Regulations Do 

Not Apply Inspection Result 

Inspections % One 

or More Inspections % One or More 

Difference 

(Reg – Not) Significance 

OOS_TOTAL 50,883 9.9% 2,099 8.9% 1.0% 0.1063 

VIOL_TOTAL 50,883 50.4% 2,099 35.0% 15.4% <0.0001 

VEHICLE_OOS_TOTAL 50,883 7.8% 2,099 7.7% 0.1% 0.8838 

VEHICLE_VIOL_TOTAL 50,883 43.0% 2,099 31.0% 12.1% <.00001 

DRIVER_OOS_TOTAL 50,883 2.6% 2,099 1.4% 1.1% <0.0001 

DRIVER_VIOL_TOTAL 50,883 13.8% 2,099 8.1% 5.8% <0.0001 

In some cases the differences observed are statistically significant. Over half of the inspections 

of the vehicles of the regulated for-hire carriers identified at least one violation, compared with 

35 percent of the inspections of carriers not subject to the safety regulations. This difference is 

significant at the 0.001 level. Carriers not subject to the safety regulations also had lower rates 

of vehicle violations, drivers out-of-service, and driver violations. The differences for overall 

out-of-service and vehicle out-of-service were not significant, but the difference for driver outof-service is statistically significant, though of marginal practical significance. Note that, 

 D-6 
contrary to anecdotal lore, drivers for carriers to whom the safety regulations apply actually have 

much higher rates of violations that those to whom the regulations do not apply. 

Table D-7 shows the same comparison between bus operators subject to safety regulations and 

those that are not, but this time it is restricted to carriers that include 9-to-15-passenger buses in 

their fleets. Note that the number of inspections in the comparisons are based on many fewer 

inspections than in Table D-6. In this subset, the carriers that are not subject to the safety 

regulations have slightly higher rates of OOS and vehicle OOS, though both differences do not 

attain significance at the 0.05 level. Overall, regulated carriers have significantly higher rates of 

violations and vehicle violations. Driver violations are also higher for the regulated carriers, and 

the difference is statistically significant. The difference for driver OOS is slight and not 

significant. 

Table D-7. Difference in Inspection Results by Carrier Type Operators of 

9-to-15-Passenger Buses Only 

Safety Regulations 

Apply 

Safety Regulations Do 

Not Apply Inspection Result 

Inspections % One 

or More Inspections % One or More 

Difference 

(A – B) Significance

OOS_TOTAL 8,123 9.2% 484 11.0% -1.7% 0.2424 

VIOL_TOTAL 8,123 50.1% 484 40.7% 9.4% <0.0001 

VEHICLE_OOS_TOTAL 8,123 7.0% 484 9.5% -2.5% 0.0703 

VEHICLE_VIOL_TOTAL 8,123 43.0% 484 36.8% 6.3% 0.0058 

DRIVER_OOS_TOTAL 8,123 2.5% 484 1.7% 0.9% 0.1454 

DRIVER_VIOL_TOTAL 8,123 13.5% 484 10.3% 3.2% 0.0263 

Table D-8 compares most directly the target group of bus operators with a comparable group. 

The target group consists of operators of 9-to-15-passenger buses that travel interstate but do not 

go beyond 75 miles. In the Census File, carriers with drivers that stay within 100-statute-miles 

of their reporting location serve as a surrogate for this group. The obvious comparison group is 

interstate operators of 9-to-15-passenger buses that go beyond a 100-statute-mile radius of their 

reporting location. Both groups might operate the same bus type in interstate commerce, but one 

stays within close proximity of its reporting location and is therefore not subject to the safety 

regulations. In the comparison that follows, carriers that operate buses larger than 9 to 15 

passengers were excluded. 

Table D-8 shows the results. Only 237 total inspections were available, 164 for the regulated 

group and 73 for the unregulated. Because the number of inspections is so few, none of the 

differences are statistically significant, except for the proportion of carriers with driver 

violations. Over 35 percent of the regulated group had one or more driver violations, compared 

with only 11 percent of the unregulated carriers. This difference is large enough to be 

 D-7 
statistically significant. Vehicle violations were found at a higher rate for the unregulated 

carriers, but the differences were not large enough to be statistically significant. 

Table D-8. Inspection Results for Interstate Operators of 9-to-15-Passenger Buses within 

100 Miles and More than 100 Miles 

Drivers Go More than 

100 Miles from 

Reporting Location 

Drivers Stay within 100 

Miles of Reporting 

Location Inspection Result 

Inspections % One 

or More Inspections % One or More 

Difference 

(A – B) Significance 

OOS_TOTAL 164 17.7% 73 17.8% -0.1% 0.9816 

VIOL_TOTAL 164 69.5% 73 58.9% 10.6% 0.1227 

VEHICLE_OOS_TOTAL 164 7.9% 73 13.7% -5.8% 0.2093 

VEHICLE_VIOL_TOTAL 164 54.3% 73 57.5% -3.3% 0.6421 

DRIVER_OOS_TOTAL 164 11.0% 73 5.5% 5.5% 0.1319 

DRIVER_VIOL_TOTAL 164 35.4% 73 11.0% 24.4% <0.0001 

Changes within the Same Carrier after they Adopted the Federal Regulations 

Overall, the inspection results do not support the notion that the carriers not subject to FMCSRs 

have higher rates of violations, either by the vehicle, driver, or both, than carriers that are subject 

to the regulations. One part of the explanation for this finding may be that the 9-to-15-passenger 

vans are required to submit to relatively few inspections. They may not stop at weigh stations 

where a large proportion of the inspections are administered. Moreover, it is possible that the 

inspections are more cursory. Furthermore, those carriers not under the Federal safety 

regulations are not required to undergo compliance reviews. The number of inspections recorded 

in MCMIS is relatively low, which makes reliable comparisons difficult. 

Conclusions 

Though the MCMIS Crash File includes many elements that are relevant, underreporting of 

crashes is a serious limitation. Evaluation of the level of reporting from seven States shows that 

the States on average report fewer than 30 percent of reportable bus crash involvements. 

Reporting rates for bus involvements ranged from 2.8 percent in Florida to 82.2 percent in New 

Jersey. Reporting rates to the MCMIS Crash File are associated with vehicle type, such that 

rates are higher for larger vehicles, so it is likely that the reporting rate for 9-to-15-passenger 

vans is even lower than the rate for buses overall. However, the ability to identify the carrier and 

link to the MCMIS Carrier File is a major strength of the Crash File. 

Several performance measures were considered. These included the OOS rate, the ratio of fatal 

crashes to crashes, and the ratio of injury crashes to crashes. Perhaps because it is too early to 

see the effect of the new regulations on the OOS rate, it was not shown to be an effective 

measurement of improved performance. However, the fatal and injury crash to total crash ratios 

 D-8 
were found to be useful measures. Based on 5 years of data, the differences in the ratios between 

carriers not covered by the FMCSRs and those covered by the regulations is 50 and 

10 percent for the fatal and injury crash to total crash ratio. 

If the improved performance is applied to interstate carriers that are currently not covered by the 

FMCSRs because of the 75-air-mile exclusion rule, then it is estimated that annually, about 16 

fatalities and 115 injuries will be prevented. 

 D-9 
APPENDIX E: EXAMPLES OF REPORTABLE ACCIDENT RECORDS 

This appendix shows examples of the reportable accident records used to tabulate crashes and 

fatalities. Table E-1 shows about 20 carrier records where a USDOT number was listed and the 

vehicle configuration was specified as a “3.” Also listed is whether the crash resulted in a 

fatality and the number of fatal or non-fatal crashes listed for the carrier. It would not be 

expected that some of the carriers listed actually own 9-to-15-passenger vans (e.g., Dick Simon 

Trucking). However, there are other fields that would indicate the vehicle configuration was not 

a 9-to-15-passenger van, specifically the bus/truck field that indicates whether the vehicle listed 

was a truck or a bus. In all the cases shown in Table E-1, the record was for a bus, not a truck. 

Clearly many of these motor carriers are for-hire carriers and are, therefore, subject to the 

FMCSA regulations. 

Table E-1. Example of Carriers with Reportable Accidents Having USDOT Numbers 

DOT 

Number Carrier Name City State Vehicle Configuration 

Fatal 

Crash # Crashes

337 ANDERSON COACH & TRAVEL GREENVILLE PA 3 No 2 

9354 C & W TRANSPORTATION INC LEXINGTON MA 3 No 1 

9766 D&H PRODUCE CO SHERMAN OAKS CA 3 No 1 

12016 GRAY LINE OF SEATTLE (EVERGREEN 

TRAILS INC) SEATTLE WA 3 No 1 

12096 AIRBORNE EXPRESS SEATTLE WA 3 No 1 

16130 RYDER TRUCK RENTAL INC MIAMI FL 3 No 1 

21331 DICK SIMON TRUCKING INC WEST VALLEY CITY UT 3 No 1 

22471 OAK HILL PARTS INC OAK HILL OH 3 No 1 

23858 CAPE ANN TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY GLOUCESTER MA 3 No 1 

25197 THE HERTZ CORP PARK RIDGE NJ 3 No 1 

27935 SYSTEM TRANSPORT INC CHENEY WA 3 No 1 

29272 WESTERN ENGINEERING COMPANY INC HARLAN IA 3 No 1 

30118 KARST STAGE INC BOZEMAN MT 3 Yes 1 

30118 KARST STAGE INC BOZEMAN MT 3 No 1 

30158 RIMROCK TRAILWAYS BILLINGS MT 3 No 1 

31806 COLONIAL COACH CORP MAHWAH NJ 3 No 1 

34733 PILGRIMS PRIDE CORPORATION PITTSBURG TX 3 No 1 

40032 GREGG BUS SERVICE YORKLYN DE 3 No 1 

40959 SMITH TRUCKING CO INC PAGELAND SC 3 Yes 1 

44110 GREYHOUND LINES OKLAHOMA CITY OK 3 No 1 

44110 GREYHOUND LINES INC DALLAS TX 3 No 14 

44952 NORTH PARK TRANSPORTATION CO DENVER CO 3 Yes 1 

 E-1 
The crashes and fatal crashes reported for the carriers like those listed in Table E-1 were used to 

evaluate the fatal-crash-to-crash and injury-crash-to-crash ratios for 9-to-15-passenger van 

carriers subject to the FMCSA regulations at the start of 2004. The accident record is much 

more extensive than the few columns shown. One of the fields is the accident date. If it 

occurred before calendar year 2004, reportable accidents involving 9-to-15-passenger vans were 

to be reported but the carriers were not subject to the FMCSA regulations. The fatal-crash-tocrash and injury-crash-to-crash ratios were tabulated yearly and the ratios for 2002 and 2003 

were compared to the ratios for 2004 and 2005 and the percentage change between the two 

biennial periods was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the FMCSA regulations on these 

carriers. 

Table E-2 shows a few of the reportable accident records where the USDOT number field was 

blank. It can be seen that many of these motor carriers are local service organizations providing 

regional transport services for specific groups of people. Clearly many of these motor carriers 

are not for-hire carriers and therefore not subject to the FMCSA regulations. The crashes and 

fatal crashes reported for these carriers were used to evaluate the fatal-crash-to-crash and injurycrash-to-crash ratios for carriers not subject to the FMCSA regulations. Since it is believed that 

none of these carriers come under the FMCSA regulations, the biennial performance of these 

ratios over the four-year period were used as a reference data. If the fatal and injury ratios did 

not change for these carriers and did change for the carriers that came under the FMCSA 

regulations after the first biennium, then the change could be attributed to the effectiveness of the 

regulations. This is just what was observed and is the basis for the benefit side of the benefitcost analysis. 

Table E-3 lists the 14 carriers that stated on the Census record that although they were interstate 

carriers, they could be excluded from meeting the FMCSA regulations because they operate no 

vans more than 100 miles from the normal work reporting location. Thus it is believed that these 

carriers might be affected if the 75-air-mile exclusion were removed. Any reportable accidents 

recorded for these carriers were not included in the calculation of the fatal and injury crash ratios 

for carriers covered by the FMCSA regulations at the beginning in 2004. 

Tables E-1 through E-3 raise several questions regarding the criteria used to select which carrier 

was covered by the regulations at the start of 2004 and which still are not included based on the 

75-air-mile exclusion. In Section 4.3, reference was made to a Serious Crash Analysis 

performed on HM Carriers that found the USDOT number blank in many of the records only to 

find out that in 15 percent of the crashes, the number was filled in on the Police Accident Report. 

For this reason, a 30 percent standard deviation was used in the sensitivity analysis to cover the 

uncertainty in identifying the 9-to-15-passenger van operators covered by the FMCSA 

regulations or those still not covered by the regulations. Table E-2 presents about 20 of the more 

than 1,500 9-to-15-passenger van carriers that have had reportable crashes in the last 4 years. 

About 500 were checked against the census records to see if the 15 percent of them might be forhire carriers and have to get USDOT numbers if the 75-air-mile exclusion were removed. At 

least 50 percent of the carriers appeared to be private carriers and could therefore be excluded. 

For the remaining 50 percent of the carriers it was difficult to judge who might be operating 

 E-2 
under the 75 mile-exclusion criterion. Out of approximately 1,500 reportable accidents where no 

USDOT number was listed, there were over 200 records where the crash State was different from 

the State given in the Carrier File as the carrier’s mailing address. These 200 records make up 

about 15 percent of the reportable accidents where no USDOT number was listed. As a result of 

this finding alone, use of a standard deviation of 30 percent in the estimate of the number of 

reportable accidents by carriers covered by the FMCSA regulations was, therefore, judged to be 

unreasonable. 

Table E-2. Example of Carriers with Reportable Accidents and No USDOT Number 

DOT 

Number Carrier Name City State Vehicle Configuration 

Fatal 

Crash # Crashes

 10-15 REGIONAL TRANSIT AGENCY OTTUMWA IA 3 No 1 

 36TH ST GROUP HOME KANSAS CITY MO 3 No 1 

 

3A EDJ TRANSIT (SEATTLE SCHOOL 

DISTRICT) SEATTLE WA 3 No 1 

 5TH & OAK ENTERPRISE INC WASHINGTON MO 3 No 1 

 A & E WESTCOAST TRANSPORT SAN CARLOS CA 3 No 1 

 A & K TRANSPORTATION TUCSON AZ 3 No 1 

 A L E TRANSPORTATION HAZELWOOD MO 3 No 1 

 A TO Z TRANSPORTATION DALLAS TX 3 No 1 

 A TO Z TRANSPORTATION DALLAS TX 3 Yes 1 

 ABC PARKING LOT MAINTENANCE INC CORONA CA 3 No 1 

 ABC TRANSPORTATION DETROIT MI 3 No 2 

 ACADIANA MEDICAL TRANSPOR LAFAYETTE LA 3 No 1 

 ACE PARKING MANAGEMENT INC SAN DIEGO CA 3 No 1 

 ACE RENTAL PLAINFIELD IN 3 No 1 

 ACTON AGUA DULCE UNIFIED ACTON CA 3 No 1 

 ADAMS BROWN HEAD STA GEORGETOWN OH 3 No 1 

 ADAMS CO BD OF ED WEST UNION OH 3 No 1 

 ADAMS CO OHIO VALLEY WEST UNION OH 3 No 2 

 ADAMS PRODUCTS COMPANY MORRISVILLE NC 3 No 1 

 ADVANTAGE TRANSPORTATION LLC VAN NUYS CA 3 No 1 

 AGENCY ON AGING PHOENIX AZ 3 No 1 

 AH SUE DAVID & SOPO PAGO PAGO AS 3 No 1 

AIRPARK ST LOUIS LLC ST LOUIS MO 3 No 2 

 E-3 
Table E-3. Carriers Who Might be Operating under the 75-Air-Mile Exclusion 

DOT 

Number Carrier Name Street City State

709384 ANTELOPE VALLEY AIRPORT EXPRESS INC 42540 6TH STREET EAST STE B LANCASTER CA 

533058 AWARDS LIMOUSINE SERVICE INC ONE BETHESDA METRO CENTER BETHESDA MD 

698922 EAST ARKANSAS AREA AGENCY ON AGING 

INC 2005 EAST HIGHLAND DRIVE JONESBORO AR 

892937 HAMILTON & HAMILTON 1000 SHEPARD LANE CINCINNATI OH 

348603 HAMILTON TOURS INC 203 S LOCUST ST OXFORD OH 

867636 HUDSON CHICAGO TOURS INC 3700 NORTH MANHEIM FRANKLIN 

PARK IL 

1028951 KANSAS CITY SHUTTLE LLC 1300 LYDIA KANSAS CITY MO 

738955 LOCAL MOTION INC 161 NORTH ST NEWTONVILLE MA 

87845 MISSISSIPPI COAST LIMOUSINE INC 9257 W OAKLAWN RD BILOXI MS 

255740 REHBEIN TRANSIT INC 6298 HODGSON ROAD CIRCLE PINES MN 

724383 RIVER BEND TRANSIT 7440 VINE STREET COURT DAVENPORT IA 

896559 ROBERTS TOURS & TRANSPORTATION INC 680 IWILEI ROAD STE 700 HONOLULU HI 

649970 TRANSIT AUTHORITY OF NORTHERN 

KENTUCKY 3375 MADISON PIKE FT WRIGHT KY 

825084 VELV LLC 5350 E SPEEDWAY TUCSON AZ 

 E-4